The Birmingham age-herald., 1917-02-10


 1 Final arrangements for the departure of former German officials on the Scandi- naVlan liner Frederick VIII next Tues ! day from New York via Halifax for 1 Chrstiania, were completed today by agents of the company and the state de- partment. The United States, at the suggestion of both the owners of the vessel and Count Won Bernstorff, asked "al'v that the trip be made via Halifax in order to avoid the German
 -oile on cne route via Falmouth or Kiikwall, and the British and French gov- ernments, in granting safe conducts to the 200 former German officials, acceded to that request out of courtesy to this 1 country.
 1 WANT NO AUSTRIAN BREAK 1 As one explanation for the earnest de- sire to avoid the apparently inevitable break with Austria Hungary it was pointed out today that if that were dore all communication between this country land Bulgaria and Turkey would be cut ! oil. This would be particularly serious tfor the American relief work in Syria and Armenia and the 1000 or more Americans for whose departure from Asia Minor the 1 state department has succeeded after i'm mense difficulty in arranging.
 1 There has been no development in the situation with Austria since Ambassador ] Penfield last Saturday forwarded from Vienna an Austrian note similar, but not identical with Germanys. No statement has been made as to whether the fuller details requested by the department from Amba dor Penfield have been received.
 TONNAGE LOSSES LESSEN ! Only about half as much tonnage as during each of the past three days was reported sunk in Lloyds dispatches re- ceived at the department today. Whether the sudden drop was due 10 better British patrolling armament or destruction of submarines is not known. The figures for the next few days, however, will be watched with the deepest interest as in dieative of whether the German attempt to starve out England can be successful Some officials believe that while the rate during the first week or so may touch the minimum essential to the Germans, it is apt to fall off just as the first sub marine campaign fell off. with the per- lection of methods of defense.
 ARMED SHIPS SAFEST In this connection British officials here claim that their figures show that four boats out of every five that armed, even with stern gun, complete their voyages in safety. Whether armament fore as we'll as aft would be more efficacious is 1isnuted. but it is expected that there will be large developments both along this line and along the line of sending ships out through safeguarded lanes under fast convoy.
 This was one of the subjects discussed today by the cabinet Tables taken ,p showed the number of vessels that enter and leave ports of the British Isles an- nualIy, and covered the number of ships sent down by the Germans since the new sea warfare became fully effective
 The statistics studied showed that be- fore the war 65000 vessels entered ports of the isles annually and that about the same number cleared. Since the war 1t is believed an even greater number of ships have entered and left, although there are no accurate figures bearing on the subject The German undersea boats, it was pointed out, would have to destroy between 15o and 200 ships daily to stop traffic to British shores, if vessels con- tinue to traverse the seas as before un- restricted submarine war was declared. But as many vessels make quick trips to the continent, this number would have to be discounted. for every ship sunk would have to be taken from the list There are under the British flag about 12,- 900 ships Sinking 100 vessels daily would destroy the fleet within 12O days.
 For a time, at least, it is pointed out neutral vessels will venture into the barred zone with extreme caution, but high rates the British government is will. ing to pay it is declared, will send them in later despite the hazard.
 So far nothing has come through to indicate how many vessels are getting through the blockade, but it is believed here the number is relatively very large.