Evening star., 1917-06-03
then have = very little basis for bar.
gaining with France
British Success in Material wav.

men have very little basis for bar
gaining with France.
British Success in Material Way.
We may say that the British have 80
way In their conflict with the Germans.
II the French should free their own coun-
try from the German invader they would
in turn escape from any compelling ne
colonial territory and the British would
be no longer under compulsion to save
French territory by returning German ter
There would always remain Belgium.
Of course; but II tho French and the
British succeeded in pushing the Ger
mans back to the Belgian frontier don't
think there would be any effort to con-
might be- and there probably would be-
a British effort to break the German hold
upon the Belgian coast and Danish the
peril incident to German submarine
base at Zeebrugge, but this after all.
would not be an operation which would
consume all Of British military effort
Granted that the Germans were driven
TO the Belgian frontier this fall. my Judg-
ment Is that the allied campaign Of 1918
would be based upon an effort to invade
Germany through Alsace-Lorraine and by
forcing crossing Of the upper Rhine to
carry the war. with Its destruction. into
Germany Itself. This, think, must be a
determining reason why the Germans will
hold on as long as they can in their pres
ent position.
Will Strengthen Their Position.
It is perfectly obvious to any one who
looks at the map that when the Germans
have retired to the Franco-Belgian from
tier they will be in position to make fur
ther retirements. ali Of which win
strengthen their position as well as
shorten their line. It is this that makes
1t seem unlikely that there will be any
EFFORT to reach Germany through Belgium.
This line. which every one knows the
Germans have prepared, reaching south
ward from the forts Of Antwerp, covering
Brussels and reaching the Somme Just
about Namur and then crossing to the
Meuse ana joining the Meuse line at
Mezieres. is position which might easily
hold back the allies for more than another
year Of fighting, for over the larger part
Of such front the Germans would be
covered by the Scheldt and the Meuse
rivers. and the area actually open for at
tack would be very small.
1t seems to me inevitable that some
time between now and next spring the
Germans will have to go back to the
Franco-B Belgian frontier, and there are
great many Indications. both in recent
days and In all German military prepara-
ton and comment. which point to a rec
ognitfon Of this fact on the part OF the
Germans. Unless all signs fail, the Ger
>>>e~>AS AAS AShoSA SAPCS( q niIllldTy decision,
German Hope in U-Boat Campaign.
They hope that their armies can
check and hold off allied attack and
keep 1t away from Germany until their
submarine campaign shall bring their
enemies to terms or until the unrest
and economic exhaustion of their enc
mics shall compel them to discuss
terms Of peace. They mean to hold as
much of France as they can against
such a time; but they recognize clearly
that their campaign is a losing cam
pafgn, in which the mission Of their
army is to delay and to stand on the
defensive.
If the allies should succeed in driving
the Germans to the frontier before
autumn. their success will surpass the
expectation of all the well informed
observers Of France and Great Britain
This would not have been the case had
Russia been able to perform her part
This would not have happened had
Brusflon been able to make an attack
this year comparable with that OF last
year; but Germany has been able to
them on the western front. and their
presence has doubled the task of France
and Great Britain.
Conceivably, there may yet be limited
retirements before there is a general
withdrawal to the Meuse and Lille line.
1t is possible that as the French pres
sure on both sides of Rheims con-
tinues. the Germans will withdraw be-
hind the Aisne river from Berry-au-Bac
to Vouziers. where the Aisne touches
the Argonne. and then stand between
it and the Argonne. southwark to their
present lines. 1t is conceivable that
they may stand on a line from Cam
braf through Guise If they are turned
out of the Laon-St. Quentin position.
The longer they are ab1e to stand
where they are now standing. the more
numerous will be their secondary or
switch" lines behind their present
front.
Retirement Seems Inevitable.