Evening star., 1917-06-03

again and have completely cleaned up the
on this front.
The problem arises whether 1t will be
possible for the Germans to maintain
themselves. as they had hoped. all through
the summer along their present lines, in
view Of the superiority Of allied numbers
and artillery and the great advantage of
position which both allies have won al
ready In the first two months of the Of
fensive. Bear in mind that had the Brit
ish and the French been able to start
their offensive in April last year, instead
OF July. there seems to be no question
that they would have succeeded In COM
pelling German retirement before au-
tumn.
Time to Consider Retirement.
In any event. it is already time to
consider the possibilities Of German
retirement. Every one knows in a gen.
eral way what this retirement would
mean. Actually. the French and Brit
ish armies are now attacking at either
side of a great salient. which is the
German position in France. From the
vicinity of Arras to the neighborhood
of Soissons-that is. along the bulge
of the salient. the German position is
difficult to attack because of the very
strong ground en- which it stands and
because Of the devastated districts be-
fore it, but pushing out from Arras
east and southeast and pushing north
and northwest from Scissors and from
the vicinity Of Rheims. the allies are
striking against the neck Of this sa-
lient, and the position Of the German
troops within 1t becomes steadily more
dangerous.
A complete break through either by
the British or by the French would i'm
peril all the troops on the German
line between the Scarpe and the Suip-
pes above Rheims. No such penetra-
tion is likely. but, on the other hand,
a steady wearing is going on which is
reducing one after another of the
original trench lines of the Germans
reserve trenches in front of the Brit
ish. and 1t is always within the realm
Of possibility that there may be a pene-
tration. and within the realm of prob
ability that the actual peril Of a pene-
tration may lead the Germans to re-
tire.
Would Shorten German Front.
In general way the world knows
where the next German line Is. From
the Meuse river. which Is north of
Verdun. 1t runs behind and on the east
vicinity of Mezieres; from Mezieres,
which Is covered by old French forts.
it follows the Franco-Belgian frontier,
including Hirson. where there are
other forts. and then curves northward
toward Lille. between Landrecies and
Valenciennes. finally touching the
forts Of Lille and rejoinfng the present
line between Lille and Armentieres.
retreat to enis line would unques-
tionably shorten the German front by
more than fifty miles. 1t would
straighten it, taking out the last big
salient between Lille and Verdun. It
would give the Germans q position of
enormous strength, almost half of it
covered by the Meuse river. which Is
considerable military obstacle. By such
a retreat the Germans would reduce
the number Of troops needed to hold
the line by from 10000 to 250.000.
Nor should 1t be forgotten that such
a retreat would leave a desert over
very wide front from Lille to verdun.
and. If it should be made in July or Au-
gust. would probably preclude any Of
fensive on the part of the allies against
retreat would mean a withdrawal in
some places for forty miles in depth
that Is. nearly twice as much as the ex-
treme distance of the retirement this
spring-and 1t would mean a retire
ment on a front at least twice as long.
British Attack Would Be Restricted.
AS far as the British are concerned,
there would then be left to them only
the possibility Of an attack on the
front from Lille to the bank of the
Yser. west Of Ypres. because only on
this front would they be able to move
out of their prepared position against
German position.
But no offensive could be made over
the front before Lille because 1t would
involve the destruction Of Lille, Rou-
baix and Tourcoing, cities whose ag-
gregate population is nearly half a
million and whose destruction would be
a terrible blow to France. Actually.
the British would be restricted to an
attack on a ten or fifteen mile front
that is. on the scene of the old battles
of Ypres, where the Germans hold all
the good positions and where the
ground and general conditions are all
to the disadvantage of the British.
In the same way the French would
be compelled to attack. If they should
choose to attack this year, between
Verdun and Belfort, but nowhere on
this front. except beween the Moselle
river at Pont-au-Mousson and the
Vosges north OF st. Die, is there any
field offering good chance for attack.
and 1t is exceedingly unlikely that the
French would be able to transport their
artillery and to organize an attack be-
fore winter came to close all opera
tions.
German New Retreat in Reserve.
we may say, tHRN, tndl the
still have in reserve a new retreat
which would enable them. provided they
could make as successful withdrawal
as they did in March. to avoid decision
in the west this year and still to retain
control of all Belgium and consider
able area of industrial France. They
would be able, always granting that
they made their retreat successfully. to
stand in a better and shorter line than
they now hold and, without much ques-
tion. to abolish all chance Of decisive
defeat during the campaign of 1917.
On the other hand, such a retreat
would surrender nine-tenths of the ter
ritory Of France which they now hold.
put in jeopardy the iron districts about
Mezieres and make French push out
of the Briey district east of Verdun
probability for the next campaign. The
moral effect of the retreat would be
great. both upon the German people
and upon the French. The material
value would be considerable. because
Germany would lose nearly all her hold
on France. 1t must be remembered that
despite many great victories and much
successful invasion Germany's position
remains unfortunate with regard to her
greatest enemy, namely, England.
British Advantage Over Germany.
Today she holds no portion of British
territory, while the British, with the
support of the French, have completely
destroyed the German colonial empire
and driven the German flag from the
sea. England holds three or four times
as many German prisoners as Germany
holds British prisoners, and in the war