South Bend news-times. (South Bend, Ind.) 1913-1938, 1917-07-20

groups OF suitable size for conven-
lent examination. There are 4.557
OF these groups For each group a
board has been appointed 10 exam
inc for selection BY far the great
est number OF these groups consist
Of approximately 1000 men.
since this Sc so our problem is
not 10 put the whole 100000
names in one list arranged in the
order OF examination. II is 10 de-
termine the order Of examination in
each group of about 5000 names.
Since all registered men stand in
an equality Of right and duty, the
question OF priority can only be de-
termined by lot or drawing
cit would be possible to have
1857 separate drawings - one for
each group-but since methods
would vary. and since supervision
and absolute insurance against the
charge Of fraudulent manipulation
could not be had in that way, every
consideration of expediency and
justice urges one drawing in Wash
ington.
I'm each group every registration
card has a red ink number written
on its face and these mum bers run
in single series from unity (one)
to the number corresponding TO the
greatest number Of cards In the
group Normally this is from
unity Gomez to about 5000.
No Chance for Change.
Exact copies OF the cards in
each group have been attested and
sent TO the various state capitals.
Lists showing the name of each
man in each group and the serial
number Of his card have been post
ed in the office Of the board, pub
lished in the press. and one copy
is on file in Washington. There is
therefore no chance of any mans
number being changed without de-
lection or of any card being lost
beyond replacement. We are deal
ing then with 1857 groups Of cards,
each group numbered in one series
that normally runs from one TO
about 5000
Suppose there we're just 5000
names and numbers in every group.
II is at once apparent that il would
he a very simple thing to have
central drawing that would control
the order of every name and num-
her in every group of the whole
10. 0OO,0OO-just put 5000 numbers
into a bowl and draw them out one
at a time The first number drawn
would place the 1857 cards bear
ing that particular number at the
head of every list in the United
States. The second number drawn
would put tie cards bearing that
number second on all OF the lists
and so forth.
Same Idea Used.
Now. the thing sannot he done
In precisely this way. because there
are not precisely 5000 numbers in
every group. But. the same idea,
with a few necessary notifications
is the idea on which the present
drawing is based.
1.-THE central drawing must COM
prise over 5000 numbers because
there are a few groups of over 5000
numbers and the master list must
contain sufficient names to accom-
ITO draw 10000 separate names
would take 10 hours and would
multiply the chance of error. More
over. if the nine thousands the
eight thousands and the seven
thousands and the six thousands
were scattered all over the master
list Unfortunately the cancella-
ton by boards having small groups
would be very tedious and would
open the way TO numerous errors.
All this is easily avoided
Suppose we drew only 1000
numbers We could then provide
that the drawing of the number SIS
would also draw the numbers ISIS,
.2,S7S, 3.S7S. 4,S7S. ISIS, 6,S7s,
1873. S.S7S and ISIS.
I'm that way only 1000 numbers
need be drawn. and by making our
master list consist of nine sheets
Zone sheet for each 10000 we could
provide a master list easily APP
plicable to lists with only 5000
numbers. since such boards could
disregard all except the first three
sheets.
we should do this but for the
fact that this makes it certain that
men in the first thousand would be
called first, men in the second thou
sand next, and men with the high
serial numers last of all
Since the assignment Of numbers
is also done ny chance, this does
not interfere very greatly with the
even chance of all men. but il does
interfere TO some extent. For this
reason it was decided TO have one
drawing 10 determine the order in
which the sheets Of 1000 each
should appear on the master list,
instead OF arbitrarily assigning the
sheets Of 1000 in their natural or
der. This reduces the whole matter
to an absolute equality Of chance.
The method will be then
First.-A drawing Of numbers
from TO 10 to determine the
order i'm which the sheets of
900 each shall appear on the
master list.
'Second.-A drawing Of num-
hers from TO 1000 TO de-
termine the order inside each
group of 1000.