Albuquerque morning journal. [volume] (Albuquerque, N.M.) 1903-1926, 1917-10-04
Prof Irving Fisher Delivers
Second Lecture at Berkeley
on Vital Questions in Amer
lean Homes.
CLOSE RELATIONSHIP
WITH GLUT OF CASH
Vast Increase of Money in Cir
cuIation Largely Responsible
for Increased Cost of Liv-
ing.

tsv MORNING JOURNAL SPECIAL LEASED w,Hsl
Berkeley, Calf. Oct. 3.--The second
lecture on price movements by Irving
Fisher of Yale was given this after
noon, his subject for the day being
Price Movements During the War
His address. in part, follows:
Before the War.
AS the facts which we have re-
viewed show, at the outbreak of the
great war some cause or causes had
been steadily elevating prices far
above their low level of 1896. The
subject had attracted worldwide at
tention. There had been bread and
meat riots in many cities throughout
the world, from Berlin TO Toxic For
several years there had been talk of
an international conference on the
high cost of living. A bill authoriz-
| ing the president to call such con-
ference had passed the senate at the
end of the Taft administration and
F.; Mr.. Wilson prior to his becoming
president had approved the idea. Pre-
mier (now president) Poincare and
other public men and organizations
in most civilized countries had done
the same. Numerous local and ma
tional Investigations on the high cost
OF living had been made and numer-
Gus reports. articles and books on the
subject had appeared.
The War.
In the midst of all this ferment the
war came and cut discussion short.
But it sognl became apparent that
since the war began the high cost of
living had risen further. Neutrals
suffered as well as belligerents. We
have recently heard loud complaints
from Sweden, Holland, Norway and
Spain.
The first price phenomenon during
the war was speculative rise of
prices. Such sudden speculative
mark-up of prices usually accom-.
however, as such arbitrary mark-ups
usually are. 1t reached its maximum
in the United States in September,
1914. AS soon as it became clear that
market conditions would not justify
such a rise the spectators We're
forced within the following two
months to reduce the prices nearly to
normal. No great change in prices
was felt until near tho close of 1915
from which time the rise of the price
level has been rapid and almost un-
interrupted.
What has happened was, dimly at
least, foreseen by some of us and
was, for the most part, forecastetd
by me in my little book, why Is the
Dollar Shrinking" published a month
after the outbreak of the war.
Retail Prices.
The retail prices of food have now
mounted to AZ per cent above the Level
before the war. This rise, however,
while sufficient to revive popular ex-
citement on the subject is trifling
compared with the rise abroad, even
among neutrals. In Switzerland, re-
tell food prices had risen up to March
last, 58 per cent; in Denmark UP to
February last, So per cent; in
Italy up to April, 81 per cent; in
Sweden up to April, rs per cent; in
England up to August, 1O2 per cent;
in Austria up to May, 1873 per cent;
and in Germany, for which we have
figures only up to October, 1916, 109
per cent.
Wholesale.
Wholesale prices rose even faster
IN the United States wholesale prices
in August were SO per cent higher
than July, 1914. In England they
were 119 per cent higher.
Paper Money.
But these price movements have
not all been in terms of gold. Most |
Of the warning nations have had a |
virtual, though concealed, premium
on gold, having practically gone to a |
deprecated paper basis. Since the !
buying and selling of gold has been
and apparently prevented |
for the most part this premium has |
been publicly registered only or chief
ly in the foreign exchanges Exchange |
In New York on the various nations
IN Europe has deprecated, although |
II the outbreak of war the movement |
was quite in the contrary direction.
rhe depreciation has been greatest in |
he case of Russia and least in the |
case of England, which is the only
enc of the warning countries in which
We may fairly say that there has been
10 real premium on gold.
1t Is to be noted that the highest |
rise in prices has been in the coun-
ries where the depreciation of paper
has been the greatest.
Former Wars.
OF course to students of war and |
this is a familiar story. In
,ur civil war with the creditable .ex-
.eption of California, the United
States went TO a paper basis, gold.
vent to premium, foreign exchange