New-York tribune., 1917-12-27

south. They, too, would have been eX-
posed 70 possible disaster in rctreating
across flooded river in the face Of vic
torious German army. They escaped this
danger because, while the Germans took
Dead Mans Hill and Hill 9o4, they were
never able 70 get further south.
To-day the Austro-Germans on either
bank Of the Brcnta, along the Asiago Pa
teau and in front of the Grappa mossif
are repeating the German operation at
verdun, and the Asiago Plateau wholly
corresponds to Dead Mans Hill and Hill
9O4. If the Germans can reach the plain,
only five or six miles away, the Italian
lire beyond the Brenta and along the
Piave must retire.
II the Austro-G Germans fail along the
Asiago and Monte Grappa and are COM
pelled 20 renew their offensive along the
Piave, as the Germans failed west OF the
Meuse and had finally 20 transfer their
attack to the heights of the Meuse, the
Verdun-Italian parallel will be perfect;
but this seems wholly unlikely.
In the Verdun time the final German
effort advanced very slowly, but very
surely, from Douaumont TO Souville. Fcr-
dun, was literally at its last gasp when
the Germans had to quit. Now we shall
do we'll to recognize that slow as is the
Austro-German advance, it is proceeding
methodically and steadily, and as the ltal-
ians are being pushed off the last hills
their whole Piave position is becoming
more and more difficult. The fact that
the Italians are counter attacking fu-
riously, as Petain did on the west bank Of
the Meuse, is the best evidence Of the
critical situation in which they find them
selves, for the counter attacks are exceed
ingly expensive.
As It now stands the Piave position is
so gravely in peril that as mere mathle-
matical question of chances the odds are
that it will have to be evacuated. Heavy
SHOWS in the mountains may yet save the
Italians by abolishing Austro-German
communications. but this seems TO be the
best hope. An Anglo-French counter Of
fensive on the lower Piave appears too
risky because. whatever its success, the
line of communications and of retreat of
the troops would still be threatened by
the Austro. Germans to the north.
But recognizing the gravity Of the situa-
ton on the military side, it is still more
essential to grasp the political side. The
main objective is still political. The Aus
trians, for the main forces Of the enemy
are Austrian, are making great efforts,
paying a large price in casualties, but
exacting at least as great price, in the
hope and belief that, whatever the outcome
on the field Of battle, Italy will be eX-
hausted by the strain and will come to
domestic ruin and accept separate peace
before the main campaign in the West
opens next spring. This would leave
Germany and Austria with their hands
free for final campaign against the
Anglo-French armies before the United
States could exercise any decisive influ-
cnce in the West.
1t would be a mistake to be deceived by
any temporary gains Of Italian counter
offensives. The Italians are putting up a
glorious and memorable defence, but the
battle is slowly but surely going against
them, and their present situation is little
short of desperate, so far as maintaining
the Piave-Grappa-Asiago line is concerned
A retreat to the Adige now seems almost
inevitable. What its effect upon Italian
morale and Italian domestic politics would
be is questionable, but this is the chief
problem. For to dispose Of Italy is the
main objective of Austro- German strategy
Appealing to the German Conscience