New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-03-14
Situation in Which Neither
Side Would Need to De-
clare Hostilities
Alternative Is for
Germany to Yield
Diplomats Know No Prece-
dent for the Case as
1t Now Stands
By STEVENSON II. EVANS

Washington, March l3.-lt Is an en-
tirely new thing that President Wilson
has done to meet the German subms-
rine menace.
There is no precedent in interna-
tional law for armed guards on mer-
chant ships. Members of tho diplo-
matte corps are frankly amazed at the
announced course of the United States.
They are practically at one, however, in
the belief that the American plan will
be effective.
Diplomats from whom il has been
possible to draw an opinion are con-
vinced that the declaration OF the gov
ernment Of the United States TO use an
armed guard on merchant ships means
in effect armed conflict with Germany.
Most Of them incline 10 the view that
neither the United States nor Germany
need formally declare war. Germany,
in the view of those who have been
close to Teutonic circles here, will do
so as soon as a submarine is sunk by
an American gun.
II is a very small group of American
officials which now clings to the hope
that the mere threat to sink on sight
German submarines will be sufficient TO
bring Germany to a remuneration Of un-
restricted submarine warfare.
Threat and Counter Threat
In the opinion of diplomats here it
takes only a very short sentence te
state completely the present relation
shin between the United States ant
Germany. IL is a case Of threat ane
counter threat. Germany has an
nounced that American ships will be
sunk without warning. The counter
threat-and American officials are
convinced tnat Berlin is fully and Of
fcially aware of the counter threat
is that submarines will be sunk with
out warning.
Germany will not fail to draw the
inference, in the opinion Of the diplo-
mats, that it is possible to avoid the
issue of war with the United States
in only two ways:
/. By directing the submarines TO
avoid American ships. This 1ourse, 1t
is believed, will be followed as long as
is possible.
.. BY directing submarine command
ers to observe the duty incumbent upon
belligerent ships Of war-the duty OF
visit and search, the placing Of nom
combatants and crews in places OF
safety before the destruction of the
vessel. No one here, except the very
small group aforementioned, has the
slightest belief that Germany will fol-
low the second course.
Encounter Expected Soon
The first course cannot be followed
indefinitely. II will be all too soon,
considering the present state of unpre-
paredness even IN the navy that an
American merchantman's bow or stern
gun puts a shell through a submarine
or tina; a submarine sends torpedo
into an American merchantmen.
Officials at the State Department
made it clear TO ell diplomatic callers
to-day that this government recognized
the right of German submarine officers
10 board and search American mer-
ohantmen, but not until the German
government has taken back its an
rouncement OF January 81. Unrii that
statement is Withdrawn American
armed guards will proceed on the as
sumption that the appearance Of a sub
marine spells danger. They will fire
on sight.
For military reasons, it is impossible
to send for publication anything about
present activities in the State and
Navy departments, as far as they con-
Germ the submarine issue. The number
of armed guards aboard the ships, the
size of the guns, the instructions 20
the crews-all sucn information will be
withheld. because its publication might
assist the German Admiralty TO meet
the new situation. Especially, IL will
rot be announced when ships will sail.
L. $. Ready for Trouble
The American government is ready
for trouble, bu, is not looking for it.
Although there IS no precedent for
the presence of armed government
guards on merchant ships, situations
somewhat analogous have arisen. One
of these was the quarrel between the
United States and France IN l'ss'
which continued tor three years ooth
countries believing that condition OF
war existed. but neither side declaring
war. The United States granted iet-
ters of marque 10 privateers ano au-
thorized its naval vessels 20 esp.ure
french memo war. Two, IN iact' we're
taken the Insurgente and the 'enge-
ance. - .ao,rye NJ
French vessels and authorized h"ei'-
can ships to protect themselves,
I'm the present case 1t woula pe u
i.ss 10 authorize the capture OF yer
rnan merchantmen. as there are