The Robesonian., 1917-09-24
men entirely exempted owing to
physical disability, 100000.
Pecr,,itc Of tho 1000 o1occ cannor

men enIlrely exempted OWlIg TO
physical disability, 100000. /
Recruits of the 1920 class cannot
be called legally until they attain
their seventeenth birthday.
The conclusion of this authority is
that after the campaign Of 1918, if
the war continue So long, Germany
would be unable to bring to the front
any new troops except the boys of
the class of 1921, who would then
be 18 years old; and that Germany
now confronts the fourth Year with
a reserve of less than million
men, made up Of boys who cannot
have the military value Of the older
classes.
The conclusions are reached by the
following reasoning:
"In sum, ,>then, Germany had avail
able for service for the first four
, Years Of the war11 100000 men, while
100000 men We're prevented from
returning to the colors by the block
ade Of Germany, which cut off over
seas contingents.
Eleven million four hundred thou
, sand, the total figure, represents
just about one-sixth of the popula-
ton of the German empire at the
: : outbreak of the war-that is, some
+ thing more than 68,O00,OOO. Ger
+ 100000 and has 100000 on the
J line and behind the line in neces-
5 sary services. Probably not more
II than 100000 to 3,500,0O0 at the
3f most are actually engaged in fight
Z ing or are in immediate reserve. She
= has 100000 men, mostly Of the class
g of 192O-that is, of boys who-art
n now only II years old-and 100000
Is 2, more men now in the hospital wht
q, some time in the next six month!
ad will be returned to duty. This to
}; tai will be reduced before the be
- ginning of the campaign of 1918 b.
/ the permanent losses incurred be
tween now and the 1st of Apri
These losses will not be less thai
$4,000 a month, and we may safel,
figure that 100000 men will thu
be eliminated before the next cam
paign opens. In other words, tn
maximum of possible reserves %
Germany for the campaign Of 191
will be 100000 men, and Of this mum
Der over half will be boys not NOR
than 18 years Of age, and 10000
more will be boys Of the class o
1919, who will have reached only tn
age limit of 19 next year. Three
quarters Of the reserves that GEL
many will have for next year, the1
are boys of 10 and under.
"The permanent loss of German
in the first three years of the wa
was slightly under 1000, ,0OO-an az
erage permanent loss Of 100000
year, but the loss was much create
in the first two years Of the wa
than in the last year, because in tn
first two years there was much hea'
ier fighting. The Russian collaps
of this year has resulted in reile'
ing the pressure on the eastern fro1
and thus directly reducing the cas-
alties. It has also compelled tf
allies on the western front to aba7
don their plan of seeking a declslt
this year by tremendous offensive
and thus the German loss has bet
materially smaller on the weste;
- 'front.' too, than it was either in tt
days of the Marine campaign or
\ the later Verdun episode.
at is not too much to estima
that the German losses for the s
! months of campaign next year W
be in excess of 100000 month, a
this means that some time befo
September German reserves will
exhausted and Germany will ha
to face the problem of shortenl
her lines or else courting dlsast
If Russia is able to take her p'
next year, or any considerable pa
then Germany's loss will not be Il
than 25O,OOO a month. It is bar
conceivable that a complete faill
ne &C Russia would enable Germany
ou hold on next year, even with redu'
effectives."