davidaulloa/AmericanStories huggingface dataset:
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-12-30
Heavy Loading Partly
Offsets Loss Of Ships

Now. ann very far from suggest
ms that % shortage of one ship in
seven, i1 such times as these, is not
serious; i. IS very serious. But it
IS not disastrous. The percentage
II neutral seagolng vessels sunk by
Submarines has been much less than
hose Of rcat Britain, and count
ing iu their shipbuilding activities
aith those Of the United States, it
IS probable that the shortage in sea
going ships Of Great Britain and
Der allies does not much exceed 10
OF IL per cent
l- need not be pointed out that
rinety ships, down to the load line
and maybe a little below it, may
readily carry more freight than
hundred ships Of the average load
inc u normal times. AS for the
grain sunk by submarines, it has
+, probably not exceeded 10 per cent
- the total importations Of Great
britain and perhaps would not
amount 20 1 per cent Of the total
available supply.
What IS true Of food, coal and
shps is equally true in other i'm
portant industries. Take steel. We
had this year IN the United States
seeming steel famine. The prices
o. iron and Of steel products scared
TO the skies. Our shipbuilding pro-
gramme was TO fail because VIC
could not get the steel Well, IL is
enough TO say that If all the ships
sunk by submarines were Of steel
land they were not the total would
not equal % per cent Of the product
OF the United States Steel Corpora
hon alone; not per cent Of the total
OF the United States. The steel ton
mage Of the United States for the
present year would replace all the
"eel ship tonnage in the world
vince over, and with plenty TO spare.
And not merely the United States
out England and Germany, too. for
Wat msiter, are producing more
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-12-30
Bank Credits Make
Imitation Possible

But as most of you are more or
less painfully aware, there has been
almost as high rise in prices in
the United States, before our entry
into the war, as for example in Eng
land-something like 100 per cent
over pre-war levels. These three
years have been for US period OF
great prosperity, with no financial
strain. I dare say it would shock
a great many people who can see
very clearly what has happened in
Russia to be told that we have been
doing more or less of the same
thing here. The reality has been
obscured, even to many excellent
economists, by the peculiarities OF
our currency system. Most people
think of currency in terms Of actual
money-gold or notes. And so for
example if Russia issues 10000
100000 or 16,000,000,000 rubles in
notes they can see very clearly why
with no increase in the gold reserve
this should mean an enormous de-
probation, o., as we say, imitation,
But in the United States there
has been no such outpour of paper
money, apparently. The increase
in our total stock Of money has
been only moderate, never threat
ening. The difficulty lies in the
fact that in this country the main
form of currency with which bust
ness is done is the bank check-to
the extent of 80 per cent or more.
You may have seen a recent estl-
mate that this proportion has now
risen to something like 9S per cent.
These checks are drawn against de-
posts and these deposits, as you are
aware, are largely created by bank
loans-something like 50 per cent
at the present time. That is to say,
the actual money in the banks is a
very small proportion to the total
amount of credit extended. This is
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-12-30

why an expansion of bank credits
faster than business can increase
means imitation in exactly the same
way as Russia's issue Of paper
money.
This has been a stumbling block
for a great many able minds, but
think it all becomes very clear IL
you simply imagine our banks re-
stored to their old note issuing
powers and if, instead of entering
a bank credit to be called a deposit,
with each loan they were to issue
actual notes to that amount. Then
if these notes were used in making
actual payments, it would be clear
enough that there would be no dif-
ference between this kind Of note
issue and an issue Of notes by the
government.
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-12-30

eminent. SO for these countries we
have no reliable index of price levels.
But a rough approximation is Of
fered in some instances by the rate
of exchange. And so for example
il can be shown that the value OF
the rublc abroad is, roughly speak
ing, its value at home. In other
words, while Russia's exchange has
been sinking to Is cents in our
money, general prices in Russia
have been rising 500 and 400 per
cent. Some Of the stories that you
may read seem perfectly fantastic.
I know Of case Of young engi-
neer Just graduated, whose normal
salary could not exceed 1920 or
1900 rubles, who receives 1900
rubles; and you may reSd of boat
men on the Volga gaining 70 rubles
per week.
III Il IOuBu SOII VI way pliNNS iiA
Germany, France and England have
apparently all risen to about an
equal extent-around $50 per cent
and this corresponds just about to
the degree of their currency inha-
ton.
Now for the countries Of Europe
at war it may be said that there is
for all this some excuse. War and
currency imitation are inseparable
companions. In war time the whole
living standard must be raised. IL
it were not, wars would be I'M
popular and, in the face of the
frightful havoc they entail, simply
could not go on. And times of high
living are not times of saving.
Wars cannot be paid for by taxes
alone, and there is always resort to
some form Of currency initiation to
meet the cost.
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-12-30
Reduction in Banks
Theoretical Legal Reserves

Existing gold reserves coulo ps
made the basis Of something like
five times the present credit struct-
ure. The theoretical legal reserve
Of the banks has been reduced from
around about IS per cent TO some
thing like 3ls per cent. 1t Is APP
palling TO consider, and | do not be
lieve that our national legislators
ever realized what they were doing
when the amendments were passed.
These amendments provided for
currency initiation fully equal to that
which shocks us so greatly when We
look at Russia. And ] know at least
one New York banker who believes
that IL the war lasts long enough
these powers will be availed OF to
the full extent, and that our banks
will be loaning fifty or sixty billions,
as against about seventeen billions
now. Nothing stands between us and
this vast scheme Of initiation save
the good sense Of our bankers and
such restrictions as may be imposed
by the Federal Reserve Board IN
Washington and the measures OF
the several Federal Reserve banks.
IL may be that these restrictions
will be sufficient, but the temptation
i, great. There is an enormous de
mand on the part Of the government
for money. And it may be said that
the country itself is in no mood for
sharp restriction of bank credit. For
that matter, it never is. That mean.
tight money, retrenchment and the
collapse Of great many mushroom
enterprises. For a great many per-
sons it spells disaster. Human nature
being as it is and bankers and poll
ticians as they are, il seems almost
inevitable that, for some time 70
come at least, we shall have steady
and heavy expansion of bank credits.
Now consider the effect. To
all intents business is at a 100 per
cent level. Labor is 100 per cent
employed. One industry cannot ex-
pand now without drawing from
another. The railroads are work
ing at maximum. They cannot in
crease the supply Of cars to one in
dustry without taking from another.
We cannot now greatly increase the
production of goods. This means
then, that every dollar Of bank ex
pansion now means a dollar OF cur
rency imitation and / think that W
shall very soon begin to feel tn
effect.
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-12-30
Loans Show a
Heavy Increase

Now if we examine the banking
returns for the last three years we
find that there has been a very
heavy increase in bank loans and
corresponding increase in deposits
subject to check; and the enormous
increase in the transactions OF the
clearing houses is sufficient index
of the fact that the circulation OF
this deposit currency, as we may
term it, has been at more rapid
rate than ever before. And II we
compare this increase Of bank loans
month by month with the rise in the
price levels as shown by "Dun's" or
"Bradstreet's," we shall discover
that the rise in prices has gone hand
in hand with the rise in loans, lag
ging little behind in point Of time,
Just as, as Professor Shield Nichol-
son has shown, has been the case in
England.
1t is very striking fact that the
price level in October, 1915, was
slightly lower than at the outbreak
of the war, 4 year and quarter
previous. The price level did not
begin to rise, in spite of all the
stimulus given by the war buying,
until the drain Of gold, which began
with the war, had stopped and the
current had been reversed and gold
began again to come to US in heavy
shipments.
These heavy gold imports ceased
with our entry into the war, and as
our government has shown no dis
position to indulge in large note
issues, like Russia or Germany or
France, the question remains: VIII
prices go on rising? | have found,
for example, many able men who &C
cept the quantity relations Of money
and prices when this money is gold
or notes who cannot go further,
and who, therefore, believe that the
price level has about reached the
top. The next year or two will,
therefore, provide here in the Unit
ed States another kind Of laboratory
experiment which will be a crucial
test for what | have called the mod
ern theory. AS you know, there has
been within the last few months an
other very heavy expansion Of bank
loans. with huge increase of redis-
counts at the Federal Reserve
banks: and this without any CORE
spending increase in the gold re-
serves Of the banks. Yet even now
the banks are hardly loaned up TO
what might be termed their normal
or pre-war maximum. And as some
of you, at least, are aware, amend
ments TO the Federal Reserve Bank
act passed last June virtually took
the lid off the old reserve require
ments, and theoretically made it pos
sible to expand bank loans five or
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-12-30
Real Values Measured
By Human Labor

Now, you know that on the modern
theory, first enunciated by our own
Simon Newcomb and later taken up
and so brilliantly verified and ex-
tended by Professor Irving Fisher,
President. Hadley, Professor KEN
merer, in this country, and Pro-
fessor Nicholson, in Britain, the
general level Of prices varies direct
~ with the amount of currency IN
circulation, and the rate or velocity
Of that circulation, and inversely as
the amount Of exchanges to be eff
fected This is really only saying
what Stuart Mill and the older
economists said long ago-that there
can be no such thing as a general
rise in real values. Real values are
measured by the human labor they
represent, and as the industrial ma
chine becomes more and more ef-
ficient the amount Of labor required
for given product grows less. II,
therefore. We find we are paying
twice as much for food and cloth
ing and everything else now as
three years ago, or twenty years
ago, that simply measures the cur
rent relation of the currency TO the
amount of business done; currency
has been increasing faster than the
Volume Of exchanges to be effected.
In this country, as you know, this
can be very accurately measured, be-
cause we have several excellent
price indices, like "Bradstreet's,'
"Dun's' and THE Annalist," and
that prepared by the national gov
eminent. The same thing is true in
England. but it is not true for the
rest Of Europe. And for another
thing, normal price movements have
been upset by all kinds of govern
mental DEGREES and attempts at
regulation, so that in great many
instances the nominal prices do not
represent actual exchanges at all
For example, it is said that in
France the actual selling price OF
coal is something like three times
the nominal figure fixed by the gov
eminent, and the same is true Of
sugar and other articles in which a
scarcity exists. And the same way
in Germany. You have recently seen
disclosures that even in Berlin food
has been selling at about 100 per
cent over the price fixed by the gov
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-12-30

steel this year than ever before in
their history-probably 80 or 40 per
cent more than in any pre5war year.
The excess for the United States IS
so per cent.
Elimination of German
Demands Factor
And so through the list No
country at war before our entry
was a large producer Of copper;
So q whole copper production was
oue-third greater this year than IN
any pre-war period. And practi-
CALL al o. this was for the Allies
alorc Before the war Germany
was the largest user Of copper in
the world, save the United States.
It was taking more than England,
France and Italy put together.
And in this year it has had practi-
cally none Of the new supply
The same is true Of cotton. No
considerable supplies Of cotton were
cut of by the outbreak Of the war,
and. on the other hand, the second
largest consumer Of cotton in Eu-
rope. and the third largest in the
world. was cut off by that outbreak.
Yet even with Germany eliminated
YOU are aware Of the huge demands
upon the cotton market and the pre-
vailing prices for that staple.
would point out one more fact.
Prior TO last April all the war de
mands Of the Allies upon the United
States for steel and steel products
had been more than met by the in
crease in our steel production, and
as the takings Of the railways in
this country, always the largest Of
steel buyers, were VIGOROUSLY ut
the lowest point in years, it was q
mystery TO the steel trade itself
where all this monster output was
being sold. It did not 90 TO Eu-
rope. It did not 60 to the railways.
It was not used for war; it went
largely into consumption at home.
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-12-30
|. No Actual Coal
Tor God Shortage

I
Follow the daily papers, that there IS
great hue and cry over coal fam
inc. and we are told that it is more
acute in some countries Of Europe
than in the United States. One
ni,ht imagine here also that there
exists q serious shortage from nor
ral iu the supply Of coal. There Is
ra such shortage. As many of you
are probably aware, our coal pro-
5u-tou this year exceeds all
records. and that Of England is,
roughly. up TO normal. These two
great coal producing countries Of
the world equal about 20 or 10 per
cent of the world product. That Of
France was never more than 6 per
cent. so that the excess in England
and the United States far exceeds
any deficit in Belgium and France.
But when these things are pointed
out we are met with the statement
that the food famine and coal fam
inc are not caused by an actual def
lett Of food and coal, but from lack
II transportation, locally in the
United States on the,railroads and
from lack of ships on the sea. The
answer is that first Of all the rail
roads Of the United States are car
rying nearly 80 per cent more
freight than at any time previous TO
the war. and very nearly 10 per
cent more even than last year. And
from q recent speech Of Sir Eric
Geddes in the House Of Parliament
we now know very closely the actual
shortage Of ships caused by the sub
marine and other destructive forces,
and the amount Of replacement
TO the end OF October the subma-
r.ne had destroyed 5G3 British ships
% over coo tons, which was little
less than one ship in seven Of the
existing British feet. And this
represents, with requirements, very
nearly the net shortage Of Great
Rr.trfr .- tho caae
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-12-30
Bv Carl SNYDER

address before the Economic
Csb of Boston December 29)
-IRsr Of all ! wish to invite
II your attention to a rather
! curious problem. Thanks to
highly efficient press bureau,
30 more or less by Journalistic
.-.5cncirs TO the sensational, We
;,bt readily believe that there IS
serious shortage from normal in
g,,5 supplies Of the United States
.,5 IFS allies. And this is sup
.,s.l 10 account. in large part, for
,bs abnormally high prices prevail
ms. a.
No such shortage exists. Our
avn crops this year were, as you
t,ov. well above last year, and
dignity above a fve-year average.
And so also were the crops Of the
cher nations now open 10 lraoe
With d aud our allies. The Inter
national Institute Of Agriculture in
Rome has recently made up It's COM
rlatioa FOR the year, and this COM
alat.5a SHOWS that for these nations
u the supply Of wheat, barley and
-re has been slightly below the aver
age. this has been fully compensated
BIZ the excess Of corn, oats and po-
.stocs i'm other words, II we and
orr allies have TO eat q little less
sread voc shall have g little more
meat
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-12-30

movements are masked by such a
variety Of factors or extend over 50
great a period that the cause Of the
fluctuations is obscured or their ef-
fects taken care Of by constant ad-
justments. But in the present case
we have a tremendous rise in prices
within 4 space of three years under
conditions more or less identical in
the various countries. But instead of
a general rise for the whole Of Eu-
rope we find a sharp difference from
one country TO another. For all
.rade purposes the different countries
have been more or less isolated, Rus
STA almost completely and Germany
the same, France less and England
least Of all. We have, as it were, a
series Of compartments or contain
crs into which have been poured
varying amounts Of paper currency,
and what ! wish to draw to your at
tention is that the effect in each
case has been practically proper
tional to the amount or percentage
poured in. It is exactly as if a
chemist in his laboratory had added
the various amounts Of given sub
stances TO a solution to prove that
the effect was exactly proportional
to the amount added.
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-12-30
Price Fixing |.
Failure In Germany

i dllul z III SNihAS'y
It seems to me there is here
grave peril for the Administration
and for the successful conduct OF
the war. Last summer the Adj
ministration embarked on a price
fixing policy, in imitation of Ger
many. Germany is a relatively
small state. l believe you could
squat the whole of it down in Texas.
And it is state noted for Its
obedience to discipline and govern
mental authority. Yet when the
facts are known I think it will be
found that price fixing in Germany
has been more or less Of failure;
Just as it has been in this country
and just as it has always been
lust as it was under Edward the
Confessor in England, or Justinian
in Rome.
1t will be an especial failure in
this country, first because OF the
size Of the country and its compll-
Gated industrial arrangements, and
secondly, because you cannot ex-
pect to keep down prices By ad-
ministrative decree while initiating
the currency with a power bellows.
You might as well expect to put a
20,000-ton jack under a beam and
hold the beam down with a feather
buster.
With a rapidly expanding cur
rency under such conditions you can
only expect one of two things
either that the prices fixed will be
disregarded, or else that production
will fall. fear that in some lines,
as, for example, the coal industry,
we are already witnessing the lat
ter result. In the darkest hour OF
the war, when German energy and
German effectiveness seem ascen-
dant, it is no time TO make economic
experiments that have behind them
two thousand years Of consistent
failure. To win this war we need
all the coal, the steel, the food that
we can get. And we need 1t not In
1919 or 1920, but now and in the
next twelve months.
There il a growing dread that our
conduct Of the war has been in
trusted in many cases TO incompe-
tent and inferior men. If to this we
add the descriptive effect Of mistaken
economic policies, Americas active
entry into the war may come too
late. As men Of sound thinking |
appeal to you of the Economic Club
Of Boston to ask, TO demand, that
the Administration shall not resort
TO or permit a further Russianizing
Of our currency. The purchasing
power Of the American dollar is TO-
day only equal to so cents as COM
pared with three years ago. Are We
prepared TO watch it go to % cents,
to II cents, like the ruble Of Russia,
with all the contiscation Of savings
which such infatica would mean?
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-12-30
NF ATOM NOT SHORTAGE, THE REAL CAUSE OF HIGH PRICES
n~k Food E" 3l% N 0%

six times over the legal reserves IN
der the old national bank system.
Mountain advocate., 1917-03-16
Found Dead I'm Bed.

Robert n. COrlett, of this city,
received a message last night
stating that Mrs. DR.. Martin OF
Harlan, who is a niece of Mr..
Cornett, had been found dead in
bed in the afternoon. The lady
had been complaining for some
time, though it was not thought
she was seriously sick.
Mrs. Martin has a sister, Mrs.
William Lewis, in California, and
a brother, Denver B. Cornett, in
Louisville. The funeral will not
be held until their arrival, they
now being on their way home,
Mr.. and Mrs. r. n. C'rnett vii
attend the funeral, which will be
in Harlan.
Mountain advocate., 1917-03-16
co VEST THIS SPRING

Become independent ny taxing up
agriculture in Minnesota. North Da-
kotg, Montana, Idaho, Washington or
Oregon. Millions of acres of land in
these states along the Northern Pa
Gle Ev. awaiting settlement. Unusual
CUpoTtuui.iar. Healthtul climate,
abundant crops, good markets, eX-
ccllent t"aaapOrtation facilities,
schools, churches, etc. A young coun-
Try for ambitious people. Send for
free descriptive literature and infor-
nation regarding the particular see
tiUn that interests you. We will be
Elad to assist you in locating your
new home in a community where you
can feel at home and can enjoy pros
perity. Write TO j. c. Eaton, General
Agent, Northern Pacific Ry.. ~ East
4th ST., Cincinnati. o.
Mountain advocate., 1917-03-16

r e. Inv of Corhir wcs here
Wednesday and Thursday taking
pictures.
w,o Ill man who bovo hoar
,r,,...;,r. 90 Io,o. orI ca foithfnl
will soon be gathering the fruits
OF their labor.
,,-,,,.,,, c., C,,,.,o,,.,r,
{ '! '''%o, I I,,,' VI" >,,'i ,,,,;,
were Wednesday business visi-
tors to our city.
IL, w., n oo.-,,,,,,,, .,,,,, ;
q, "uos'o ,~'' I o. $500. ,:,,, l' ,''..n h;s
, ,.,:i, .'' en-; a;t,, ,.o4,,,.o;,,. -
Frankfort Sunday nirht
,
Absolutely the most beautiful
line of ChiIdren'S Dresses ever
displavcd in Harbourvillc Just re-
cciyca @t the New York Store.
v-,rrpD-To nurchasa son,o
- ~, ',a IVho. Eo,,a ,.a,,
Oh p!ooUc'IoH' " il"' nav w"
TO sell. BOX 16o'
Mountain advocate., 1917-03-16
Sign of Good Digestion.

When you see a cheerful and
happy old lady you may know
that she has good digestion. If
your digestion is impaired or if
YOU do not relish your meals take
Il dose OF Chamberiain's Tablets.
They strengthen the stomach,
improve the digestion and cause
a gentle movement of the bowels.
Ootainable everywhere.