Evening journal., 1917-08-03
The New Offensive
frrnm the New York Tribunel.

is no piercing Of the German line
the Germans may be able 10 Jake
new position either behind the Lys
or the Scheldt and maintain the rest
Of their front in France. II the BRIT
ish force the crossings OF the LIS
at Menin and Courtrai then the Ger
mans will probably have to retire
from Lille, Roubaix, Tourcoing, and
this might involve an eventual re-
treat to the French frontier and a
stand OH the line of the Meuse and
the Scheldt from Verdun to Antwerp,
covering Brussels.
But all these possibilities are now
remote. Unless all signs fail we are
to see one more bitter, gruelling con-
test of the Somme sort Gains OF
mile or two are unlikely after the
first few days, except after long pre-
paration An actual piercing of the
German front is the remotest of all
possibilities Yet It is exactly this
possibility which will be seized upon
by the Germans as the test of Allied
success or failure.
The test Of Allied success or failure
will be the comparative casualty lists
of the two forces, the ultimate con-
dition OF the two armies when the
struggle ends because of weather
conditions, and the amount Of ground
conquered will be of only secondary
Importance. Recall that Grant broke
the back of the Confederacy in his
campaign from the Rapidan to the
James in 1854 without winning a
decisive victory or attaining one Of
his immediate objectives. His cam
paign led to ultimate success because
the South could not replace casual
ties and he could.
II is well to-, bear in mind that the
British attack may be shifted to the
La Bassee sector-it may be trans
ferred south of Lens or It may con-
tinue on the present front The ini-
tiative now remains permanently
with the British. And the explana-
tion of the German attacks upon the
Chemin-des-Dames is plainly to be
found in the presence of French
troops in Flanders. Clearly the Ger
mans, aware Of this transfer, sought
to prevent it by pressure exerted
along the Aisne. And il is clear that
their costly efforts were a failure.
We are probably at the beginning
Of the greatest campaign Of the war
To announce that the British objec-
tiyes are Lille, Tournai and Ostend,
TO proclaim that the British are
striving to cut Off the Germans from
the seacoast or penetrate the German
trout is TO make the maximum of
ultimate possibility the test Of i'm
mediate success. And we shall find
the Germans doing this at once and
doubtless persuading the thoughtless
that the offensive has failed because
1t has not ended in a colossal imme-
date success.
But 1t is we'll TO recall that no such
immediate results are expected. The
cost in men is a better measure of
the real success, and the condition OF
the two armies next November and
the reserves of the two nations then
will be the real tests of success or
failure.
The British attack will hardly have
an immediate egect in the East, be-
cause few German troops are operat-
ing there, and Russian disintegration,
not German battle triumph, explains
that situation. Unless all signs fail
there will shortly be a new Italian
offensive. which will distract Aus
trian attention and tend to help the
Russians. if. indeed, it be possible
to help them.
As to the immediate gains OF the
British and French and their signM-
cance. the reports are still too frag-
mentary to draw any valuable CON
clusion. At the end of the first days
fighting the French and British had
nearly, but not completely. regained
the ground lost in April. 1915, at the
time Of the poison gas' attacks; but
the British had not yet regained the
ground lost in October, 1915. due
eastward of Ypres in the direction of
Menin.
The statement of Sir Douglas Haig
that all the detectives of the first
attack were attained is borne out by
the pause following the offensive
This contrasts with the desperate
fighting for days in the Champagne
offensive in 1915, and even in the
case of Vimy Ridge, where It took
sustained and repeated efforts to
complete the clearing of the German
positions. Now we have rather the