New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-05-17

I
VIC scarcely dare to hope"
Defeat Only Hope Of People
The whole trend OF this argument
leads TO the conclusion that the defeat
of Germany is the only hope of the
people both in Russia and Germany.
The German Socialist leaders inside
of Germany u refer, of course, to the
opposition Socialists are not so free
to express themselves. Nevertheless.
we have this following statement of
Bernstein in "The New Republic" of
last September:
"The war is in high degree the
trial of German militarsm. Shall il
be maintained with its present features
or not? For the parties OF the middle
class the question is almost settled al
ready. Unless the war ends for Ger
many in a downright defeat they will
maintain it German militarism by hook
or BY crook" Bernstein is somewhat
contradictory. lie later objected, in
THE New Statesman" to the regenera-
tion of Germany "by violence from the
outside" But, far from suggesting
that any radical change would result
without such military defeat, he claimed
only that the German democracy, I'M
gain its power to continue the old
fight" 1.-THE New Statesman" rejoined:
/ How unsuccessful. how apparently
hopeless that old fight was. we all
know"
1t was only two or three years before
the war that August Bebel himself,
recognizing the hopelessness of the
struggle without foreign pressure,
welcomed the desperate remedy of de-
feat in war.
Bebel Saw Danger in Victory
The following quotation is from
bepels Memoirs. published only seven
years ago Vol. |. p. 1907:
My view is that defeat in war is
rather advantageous than dsadvanta-
geouS to people in our unfree condi-
ton. Victories make a government
that stands opposed to n people AFRO
CANT and eXacting. Defeats compel
them to approach the people and to
WIN their sympathy. This is taught in
tne case of Prussia by the war of
lSO6-'O7. in the case of Austria by the
war OF 1865, in the case of France by
the war OF 1870, and by the defeat of
Russia IN the war with Japan in 1904.
Again, If Prussia had been defeated
IN 1866, Bismarck's ministry and the
rule OF the aristocracy. which weighs
ike nightmare upon Germany to this
day, would have been swept away
Bebel never withdrew this extremely
important statement. which was made
about 1910, within three years of his
death.
Almost as great name among So
cialists Of the world as August Bebel
IS karl kautsky. An American Social
lst visiting Germany NJ the beginning
OF the war was tod by kautsky that
the desirable thing for Germany and
the world was such defeat of Russia
as would bring about revolution in
that country, together with a defeat
OF Germany by democratic France and
England. About the same time he pre-
dicted in an article that Russia would
revolt first and that the revolution
would spread from Russia to Germany.
The first part Of this prediction has
come true. kautsky, however, is now
10 he found ir the immediate peace
party. Apparently he no longer de-
sires the victory of democracy or
Germany revolution.
Militarism to Force Revolt
But Kautsky is an old man. The
younger genera ton, led by Liebknecht,
expects revolution, but only after sew
eral more months of violence from
outside" They do not think it will be
necessary to wait for actual defeat
The military regime is so strong in
Germany it would almost destroy the
country to avoid that outcome But
before this Internal destruction is
complete militarism will compel the
country to revolt. This view was ex-
pressed by Hoffman. in the Prussian
Landtag IN the middle of March,
'Militarism bears the responsibility
for the bloodshed in Europe. and only
when militarism and despotism are re-
moved will the people breathe freely.
Force of arms will not lead to a deci-
sion and peace. Distress, desperation
and general collapse will do It."
Evidently, if the great change is TO
be brought about in this way, the "vio-
lence from without" must continue
until the explosion takes place.
Nothing could be more fatal to Ger
many than a premature peace, with the
power of the Kaiser undiminished in
side of Germany and his military pres
tige so menacing to all foreign coun-
tries as to make it certain that Ger
many would have to be bled white
again within few years.
Collapse of Russia a Blow
The collapse of the Russian govern
ment or the Russian armies at this
moment, according to the above testi-
mony of the German Socialists them
selves. would be the worst blow that
could befall Germany. Yet it is these
same Socialists who are doing ali in
their power to disrupt the liberal and
democratic government of Russia, while
accomplishing nothing whatever tow
ard the overthrow of kaiserlsm
Whether this inactivity is voluntary
or coerced has nothing to do with the
question. If they cannot act against
Kaiserism they should not have the
traitorous efrontery to act against
Russian liberalism.
Yet they have already all but sue
ceeded in enabling the Kaiser TO over
throw democracy in Russia and to de
liver a deadly blow at the democracies
of England and France. Whether they
will actually succeed depends upon
their ability 20 get the Council or
Workmen's and Soldiers Deputies 70
summon A so-called international
Socialist congress. For the Socialist
history of Europe in the last two ana
a half years has finally demonstrated
that such a body would be absolutely
under German Socialist control
1.-THE third article By Mr.. Watt,n9
cM be published in The Tribune to-