Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1917-12-16

European soil, with proper provl-
On the firing line
that will be brought upon the French.
In other words, France, having suffered
as she has. will quite justly demand
that when she Is attacked. whether it
be about Rheims, or about Verdun. or
the danger point to bear a portion of
the loss. Nothing is less likely than
that the French will consent to bear
another Verdun sacrifice alone.
The element Of time remains with the
allies. Not only do the European en-
emies of Germany possess an equal
number of men, but they have behind
them the resources and man power of
the United States. which. now that
Russia has disappeared, are the great
est of all countries in the war. If the
Germans fail to achieve a decision. If
they fail TO accentuate the war-weari-
ness in France sufficiently to brine tie
French to separate peace by their Of
fensiye of next year. they VIII DC IA a
far worse state than at any moment
during the war, because they will have
used up that strategic reserve supplied
by the Russian detection, and they will
have no reserve at the moment when
the American Army is taking it's place,
at least million strong, on the west
ern battle line. But for the arrival of
that army the allies must wait, and
during the period in which they are
waiting they will unquestionably have
to face the fiercest German attack of
the war.
Defensive Policy Best for Allies.
Moreover. it seems to me that wise
policy would dictate that the allies
should wait next year and in the main
carry on a defensive war, because there
Is the obvious danger Of a complete
prostration of France il France has to
undergo another bleeding like that of
Rerdun. Germany cannot AFFORD the
losses which she would have to bear
singly when they are balanced by losses
on the other side divided between the
French and the British. This would
mean a rate of attrition for her which
would be murderous. But since France
has lost proportionately almost as
heavily as Germany, the German can
exchange casualties with France safely
The cardinal principle of German
military operations now must be to
complete the attack upon 1taly-that
Is, to open so deep a wound that Italy
may bleed to death, as Russia did, and
then turn her attention to France. The
Italian conditions are such that France
and Great Britain will have to MAIN
tain troops in northern Italy. as they
have to maintain troops at Saloniki.
and this will be grave handicap upon
the western front.
There should be no mistakine the
fact in the United States that the defec-
ton of Russia has totally changed the
whole situation in that it has supplied
Germany with a strategic reserve. that
it has reinvigorated the war spirit of
the nation, and that with newly ac-
qufred resources of guns and materials
captured from the Russians, Germany
is now able to strike one more blow
before we can possibly become an ef-
Iva fav-a
During next summer we shall have
some hundreds of thousands Of troops
in France. We shall have a certain
number of divisions upon the firing
line. We shall have many more d.
visions behind the firing line. getting
their training, but we shall be unable
to take over any considerable portion
of the German assault next year-pre-
cisely. as the British were not able to
take over any portion OF the German
assault upon Nerdun between Febru-
airy and July, 1916.
Cause for Depression; Not Pessimism
any pessimism, although we
are certain to have a period of depres-
sion growing out of the apparent mex
of German resources and
the inevitable local successes Of Ger
man arms. such as the recent Cambria
episode and the more considerable sue
cess in northern Italy. Germany is com.
pel,ed again to make tremendous efforts
and to gamble on an immediate de-
cision with new assets to avoid that de-
feat, which is inevitable when Ameri-
can numbers restore the balance de-
stroyed by the Russian detection.
French. British and Italian numbers
are equal or superior to the present
German forces. but they are not largely
The morale OF the French and
British troops Is equal to that of the
Germans. The morale Of the Italian
troops as whole Is plainly inferior to
the German and perhaps equal to the
Austrian. But French and British num-
bers are not sufficient to bring a de-
cision in the field next year. They will
never be sufficient to do this. The real
decisive thrust of the war must come
from the United States and can come
,ient numbers at the front to deliver a
great blow. 1t took Great Britain two
years to train it's citizen army and get
I to France. 1t will not take us any
ess.
We are entering new phase of the
war. The campaign of 1918 will begin
with very clear perception on the mart
II all general staffs-enemies and allies
alike-that the decision of the war will
-est with the nations whose spirit en-
lures most steadfast, and that the real
iefeat may come not in a Waterloo or a
Sedan, but n collapse behind the
ines, such as has destroyed the great
Russian forces during the present year.
I Is rather question now whether the
German spirit or the Anglo-French-
American spirit Is the first to weaken,
Ind 1t is moral certainty that IL our
roops arrive in France in time the ul-
innate advantage must be with the al
les Nor does there seem to be any
-eason to doubt that the French and
he British can bear what will be the
Ultimate German assault, made pos
'ible by Russia's revolution and the
'e.ease Of some hundreds of thousands
If German troops to constitute a new
German strategic reserve. Somewhere
between half a million and three-quar-
ers Of million troops have been re-
eased for the western field, and with
Ter usual wisdom Germany is preparing
o use this new reserve for one more
lttack, rather upon the spirit of her
'nemies than merely upon their
renches.
Peace Talk Useless During War.
The discussion of war aims goes on
teadily, despite President Wilson's
wise words that we must win the war
lrst, that this is the major duty and
he major necessity. 1 have steadfast-
v believed that all discussion OF peace
ims is Of small value while the war
emains to be won. and that when it |