The Bridgeport evening farmer., 1917-01-22
HENRY CLEWS
WEEKLY Letter

WEEKLY LETTER
The business community has al
ready settled down to the conclusion
that peace, though within sight, is
somewhat remote, and that the weari-
some struggle must continue Tor
months more, and Spossibly another
year, unless Germany makes .unex-
pected concessions. Our security
markets are now adjusting themselves
to b new situation The strictly war
industrialsf have partially but not en-
ttirely recovered from the reaction
precipitated in December by opening
of peace negotiations. These shares
are now being handled with caution
by SPECTATORS and investors alike,
since it is recognized that the furore
therein was overdone, as was freely
predicted in my previous advices An
other class of industrials, which ben
Gifted from but was not dependent
upon war orders, has enjoyed more
marked recovery. This was especially
true Of some Of the steel shares. For
these 1t is we'll understo cd that peace
will not mean cessation of prosperity:
On the contrary, what is lost in alb
normal war orders will probably be
largely offset by peace orders, for re-
construction work abroad, 1t being
fully realized thatsSunder the most
favorable circumstances Europe will
be unable for several years TO come
to meet the demands. for rebuilding
cities, railroads, bridges, cars, steam
ers, etc. The railroads of Great Bri-
tain, France, Germany, Austria-H Hun
gary, Russia ETC., have been over
worked and under-repaired ever since
the war began. Every one of these
countries will be Obliged to make ex-
tensive repairs and replenishments
outside as we'll AS inside the Warsizone.
Their own steel facilities will he tire
mendously overtaxed, and the sonty
other satisfactory source of supply
will be the United States must
also be remembered that Important
ENTERPRISES and construction Wor In
all parts Of the world have 3been held
up by this great war. Fully 4,0O0,-
5000 tons Of shipping have been des-
troyed since the war opened. Great
Britain, with her enormous ship
building capacity Of about a. million
and sthree-quarters tons year, will
require several years to make good
her loss of 100000 tons by war
British ships have suffered hard US
age, and repair bills will be tremen-
dous, while a larger tonnage than
usual will be scrapped for the first
year or two after peace is established.
American shipyards will consequently
have opportunities never dreamed of,
and for the next two or three years
at leasst foreign and domestic orders
will keep them fully employed, even
without the expected orders for the
American navy or the new policy of
preparedness Still another helpful
factor is the trade activity within. the
United States, which insures large
home demand for steel for railroads
and other construction purposes
There is good reason, therefore, to;
anticipate period of prolonged ac-
tivity in the domestic steel Industry
but profits cannot be expected to,
continue on the abnormal scale of
1916, since the competition is growing
and costs of production have already
risen abnormally.
Interest of American manufactur-
ers in export trade is growing fast.
Our past failures to win and hold for
eign markets, because Of our disin-
clination to meet foreign. -co conditions
have taught us an effective lesson,
One of the first requisites to enlarge
ment of American foreign trade is a
suitable banking system which, though
formerly lacking. is now. being ,ra-.
pidly supplied. The war pushed us
into position that would have taken
"a decade to acquire: we have gained
a foothold in foreign market formerly
dominated by Britain, Germany or
France from which it will be difficult
to eliminate us. OF fconrse, these
countries will make strenuous efforts
for their recovery; but fortunately
we have great advantages. in. enor-
nous plants, high efficiency, greater
adaptability and, as just said, improv-
ed banking facilities. It is unneces-
sary for us to have any fear of So
called dumping. for Europe will have
no surplus to waste in this fashion
for many years, and costs Of produc-
ton there must remain high because
of the scarcity of. labor, high ttxation
and other hanadicaps, the legacy OF
the war. Nevertheless, the United
States will have to face q strong COM
petition through. the Increased effici-
ency of both labor and capital upon
the other side. British plants are
co-ordinating their forces and improv-
ing their methods in a NOSE energetic
manner for the purpose Of going after
trade when the war is over, and labor
in Great Britain has already recog-
:1ized the situation by nearly. doubt.
ing its output and showing a. more
intelligent desire to cooperate with,
employers in maintaining British SUI
premacy. A similar policy n1tist be,
adopted in this country if we are to
win and hold a larger share of for
eign trade. We need have little to
fear from the proposed economic; ALI
ancess which were discussed Eat the
late Paris Conference, for tl1et reason
that these cannot be made to work,
and in the long run self-iI1terest will
compel each country to trade iii di-
rections where the advantage e is
greatest. %
The present Congress has only
about six weeks to run. During that
period important legislation is: ex-
pected, particularly in providing for.
the national deficit of 100000, 900 to
$400, 900, 600. Various methods are
being discussed to meet the latter
emergency, including a revision Of
the tariff, bond issue, increased
taxes on inheritance, a tax son profits