The watchman and southron. [volume] (Sumter, S.C.) 1881-1930, 1917-01-13

Hester's figures. 1t would seem to
us, therefore, that if your figures are
correct. it is more of bearish than
a bullish argument, providing wc are
going to get the basic crop that the
government estimates.
Yours very truly,
Hubbard Bros. & Co.
Sumter, S. c., Jan. s, 1917.
Messrs Hubbard Bros. & Co., Cotton
Merchants, Hanover Square, New
York. "'.,
Gentlemen: We thank you for your.
favor of the" 5th instant and have
carefully perused it's contents,A but
We cannot agree with the conclusions
drawn by you that our figures are
more OF a bearish than a bullish ar
gument. 81
You ask the question, that If the
government is correct in. it's figures Of
an estimated 1916 cop of 1850, 600
bales, does it not mean that we are
going to have more actual bales if
the weight of each bale is less than,
500 pounds You state that If t}fe
cotton weighs over 500 pounds per
bale, then we would have less acta7aI
running bales than the government
estimates. -. .Fs. /!
Most assuredly, we ,agre with these
premises laid down, but, are tho 'lg-'
ures, In estimated bales, Of any Vsslue
to the cotton rnarlcet in arriving at
the value OF cotton by the pound, uii- !
less It is known whether or not the
estimated number OF bales contain 450
pounds instead OF 500 pounds? ''r
You assume>that the bales will con-
tain around 500 pounds each, but sup
pose for arguments sake that they
only contained 100 pounds each, What
would happen to the bear holding o.
million bales with each bale short 400
pounds, if he blindly purchased the
cotton at so much per bale instead
Of BY the pound? H.. 'T "a !
Our understanding is that. up to this
writing the government bases its re-
port upon the bales actually ginnetl
ana the estimated number Of bales
left in the fields, actual pounds NOT
considered. pc es.4>rr 80, aea ~
According to this report, the gov
ernrnent estimates the. 1915 crop at
a1,511.OO0 bales and prices Of cot
tons by the pound is regulated std al
great extenta on the exchange upon
the governments estimatos ofsti1s mum =
Der of bales, not Knowing, at the time
how many pounds each bale Will con-
tains e' f@ ~ al1 7,e
Is this good business judgment up.
on sound business principles. or is it
ana purely peculation? -,
Since writing you, Irhavel obtaaned
the actual number Of bale. and weights
for Sumter county, SoutK Carolina, To
December 13, 1916, which is 24;6S3
bales averaging 467 pounds each, or
AA'VSV,VOIf pOuHuSs -
Now. according to- the rules Of tho
cotton trade, 500 pounds as stand
ara bale, 24.6S3 bales should give r..
4S1,500 pounds, which makes q
shortage for Sumter county of S14,53g
pounds, or 1929 bales. - 2
If Sumter. county is fair repro-
sentation Of weights throughout the
cotton belt. and understand that it
's conservative forecast shortage
will result of 379,S63,00O pounds, or
15a,72G bales in the governments es-
simhtcd 1916 crop OF 11,511, 900 bal es!
Furthermore, using your argument
that shortage In weight will reu,,irc
additional bales and. taking into con-
the additional bagging and
ties required in the production of
these 759'726 bales at 20 pounds each,
you have 1S. .s93, $50 pounds in ba ggine
ana ties, OF equivalent Of 1886 balesj
which' added to the above shortage of
sT5S.726 bales, would result in an &C !,
tual shortage for the 1915 crop Of
'197,312 bales in the government estt-
rnatc, baBedH upon the actual short
age Of 33 pounds in each bale Of. the
present figures from the Yield of
sumter county, ,..,r -. ..... ..s
Can the manufacturer produces as
much from ACT pounds Of cotton as
he can from 500 pounds? : -
And considering the rule OF sup
ply anu demand. from which !a,l