Evening star., 1917-05-27

Of Austria and bring no
promise Of immediate or even remote
profit?
We see that Russia is now become
he weak link in the allied chain; but
ought we not quite as clearly to per-
,eive that Austria remains, as she has
always been. weak link in the central
Alliance, while Turkey. assured Of her
BY Russia's remuneration. resumes her
freedom to bargain? Like Austria, she
is no longer bound to the central al
lance by considerations OF life and
death; like Austria. she 10 now bound
only by the prospect Of eventual profit.
and where is this to be found?
Policy Satisfactory to Austria.
In sum, a policy Of no annexation is
now quite as satisfactory to tho Austrian
as to the Russian. An independent Po-
land may soon come to have for Austria
erecting buffer state between Russia
and Austria, disposing thus OF 100000
Slavs and thus restoring the ascendancy
Of the Magyar and the German in the dual
This might easily seem q safe
solution Of tho war problems, and on such
a basis Austria and Russia might easily
mako peace and their peace might easily
bring about an end Of the war In the
Balkans and thus remove from the battle
line Serbia. Rumania, Bulgaria, Turkey
and Greece.
In all this I have not SO far reckoned
with German influence and German policy.
Let ue recognize at once that all that has
been said is directly counter to German
purpose and German interest. The Rus
sian revolution has disorganized the Rus
sian military establishment and given
Germany a new hope Of victory. Victory
for Germany means annexations and in
IDENTITIES. II there are no indemnities
and annexations for Germany, she will
\, Lat I~1, sxk4 h4,r
because she entered It to win a proper
place in the sun for the German people,
and she sought this place because she
found that which she occupied too Crib
bed and confined"
Today Germany hopes to annex
Lithuania and to dominate an autono-
nous Poland; she hopes to secure
hegemony in the Balkans, to reign in
Constantinople and to turn Asia Minor
into a German colony. In the same
sense she has not yet surrendered the
hope Of keeping Belgium and the iron
districts of French Lorraine. Peace on
the basis of no annexations and no in
demnities-and she hopes to get huge
indemnity for evacuating what she does
not desire in France, and for evacuat-
to retire-is lost war for Germany.
Cry Peace in Germany.
But the cry for peace without indem-
nifty has already been raised in Ger
many, the cry for peace without annex
alton has been heard for long time.
It is raised by those who are convinced
that there is no longer good chance Of
getting indemnities and even less
chance Of adding territories. 1t grows
loud when the German prospects are
dismal; 1t falls away to a whisper
again when German prospects mount as
they have in recent days. since the al
lied advance on the west front has been
temporarily slowed down. the Russian
revolution has disorganixed and para
lyzed the Russian army and the subma-
rine has begun to make itself felt as a
very grave and unmistakable threat to
allied existence.
But without attempting to look into
the future or to prophesy, let us con-
slider what may be the case six months
hence If the most likely thing hap
pens. Suppose Germany does not win
the allied offensive does not reach the
Rhine or clear Belgium and all of
France. Suppose Russia and Austria
stand facing each other more or less
and Austrian armies keep their present
positions. Is it not likely. then. that
Germany will find herself compelled
by internal pressure to accept the Rus
sian proposal to advocate peace with
out annexation or indemnity and thus
The Blood Tax Of 1918.
For it Is clear that IL the submarines
do not win the war or demonstrate
that they can win it before December
Germany will have to face another year
Of war, with American troops coming
up and American resources Joined to
those of the allies. She will have to
face great actual and greater prospect
i've superiority in numbers, guns and
munitions on the part Of her foes: she
will have to face a blood tax upon her
had to bear or will have to bear; for.
as the British are taking a portion of
the burden on the French this year. we
shall take our part next year.
To me it seems very clear that next De-
cember we shall have a new situation.
We shall have Austria ready to make
peace with Russia on the basis that
have indicated-no indemnities and no
annexations. We shall have Turkey. and
probably Bulgaria, in the same state Of
mind. We shall have Serbia exhausted
and abandoned by Russia. with little hope
of realizing her old dreams. In a word.
we shall have a situation in which. by
renouncing their own ambitions, the Rus
slams will have removed all occasion for
war between themselves and three Of the
German allies.
VIII Germany then run the risk Of los
ing her allies by insisting that they stay
in the war with her to their cost and her
possible profit? II she does the allies may
well welcome this situation as insuring
a break between Austria and Germany
and the escape OF Turkey. and probably Of
Austria, from the German domination. A
truly independent Austria would be a gain
for the allies that would actually mean
winning the war, were nothing else at
tanned.
Peace With Russia in December.
But it seems to me German policy will
be quite different. By December, If she
has not won the war or laid her hands
upon the prize, if she is not able to show
her population inevitable instead Of pro-
spective victory, it seems to me that Ger
many will have to listen to the proposals
Of Russia. indorsed by Austria. and to