Imperial Valley press., 1917-02-17
THE BUSINESS SITUATION REVIEWED.

So important a factor has the United States become
in the business and financial affairs Of the World SINCE
the began that it only natural that the attention
of all nations should be directed to that country IN the
crisis that has arisen between the United States and Ger
many Whatever effect the United States preparations
for may have on American industrial and hnancla
affairs will largely concern the world.
The severing of diplomatic relations between the
United States and Germany has had very unsettllng
influence on business At the time when business inter-
ests had plans we'll unedr way for the adjustment of their
affairs peace basis. Germany announced Its nte1
ton of resortng undersea warfare regardless OF the
rights of neutral countries Notwithstanding the TACT
that war always gives an artificial stimulus to business
the had the effect of increasing conseVa-
tbs min almost all commercial quarters. Now, whether
there should be actual warfare between the two cou
tries not business likely to continue much disturbed
for time There many sides to the SITUATION
that it is difficult to make correct analysis OF It, Even
though the should be extended as to lncude
the greater part of the world it is held by many that 1t
would mean the earlier termination Of hostltes Con-
sequenty there is still the necessity of preparation tor do
ing business on peace basis.
One of the most difficult problems which the manu-
facturer and the contractor at present have to contend
with the probable future cose of commodities 1t seems
almost impossible to make accurate forecast as to what
quotations will be in e of peace even as to the
likelihood Of nso1ongaton of the war. There are many
who believe lhat should peace soon prices OF COM
modtes would simultaneously drop and good reasons
arg advanced for this belief There are others however
Xho think that prices would remain high indefinitely aft
the close Of the because of the great demand that
would follow for the rehabilitation of the devastated ter
rltOry 1t may be that bOth contentious are Ill
correct That is to say some commodities may decline
precptatey in price while others may continue along the
present high level If may judge from the large earn
ngs of the steel and copper companies and the relatively
low prices which the securities of copper and steel
panies are selling in the market the prices Of both metals
will be considerably lower when the world is again on
peace basis Cotton has always advanced brsky on every
rumor of peace and has declined sharply in the market
whenever clouds loom darker Leather has advanced
to almost prohbtve prices and it is generally agreed
that this condition is mainly due to the demands OF the
war; Prices for leather therefore, should be much lower
after the great struggle Figures for wheat corn oats
and in fact almost every sort of foodsuf known to man
have gone well nigh unprecedented heights How much
higher they may 60 should there be war between the
United States and Germany knows but it seems
certain that they will have decided decline when the
people of the world at peace.
Practically the only thing the business man can do
in the circumstances is to cautiously and avoid
speculation. Handto-mouth buying is induged in now
to greater extent than ever, Notwithstanding the temp
tation to enlarge Stocks prices of which certain to
move farther upward 1t is this crcumspect policy that
makes for sound basis and that is likely to prevent
unfavorable situation when the world returns to normal
conditions.