Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1917-08-05


the Balkans. These things poin
pose of the allies.
Yet It seems to me. looking the stu
alton squarely in the face and accept
ing the statement OF naval experts
that unless the submarine menace is
mitigated materially. IL not actually
abolished, there must be an end to the
war by October. 1918, at the earliest
and February, 1919 at the latest Tnere
In still every reason to believe that be-
fore the end of the campaigning sea
son of 191S-that is, by November l.
the military situation OF germany WI
be such that she will be compeiieo ~
sock peace on terms that Will mean d
clear and unmistakable defeat Tor her
and for those policies winch nave
reused the civilized world against her.
Russia's Collapse Not Fatal.
In the present article I am going to
try to set down these reasons, because
I do not share tho present feeling OF
depression which has resulted from the
Russian collapse. For. Disappointing
as this has been, / do not believe IL
has done more than delay the decision
for q year
First of all the reasons why am
aatisfied that Germany will not last
until November !. 1918. Is the magni-
tude of her losses German casualty
lists rs We now obtain them. SHOW q
total loss in killed. captured and
wounded of $500. 900. The figure Is too
low by half a million. 1 believe; but.
accepting 1t for the moment, IT SHOWS
that 100000 Germans have been
killed. 100000 are missing or prison.
ers Here Is an immediate absolute loss
of 100000. OF the 2,S0o.000 remaining
casualties, not more than 50 per cent
have been returned to the hrfng line,
high estimate This adds 100000 to
the permanent loss, which makes p
100000.
One-Sixth Modified.
Now. France has. with extreme eff
fort, succeeded in mobilizing ap-
proximutely one-sixth of her popula-
ton Germany may have done little
Aetter-but not much Her advantage
in this respect would be due to her use
of population of conquered districts
and prisoners Granted that Germany
has been able to mobilize one-sixth OF
her population, this must be reck-
oned on the basis of nineteen years ago;
that is, the year in which the boys now
nineteen were born. for this is obviously
the year that is appropriate German
population then was not 70.ce0.0O0 nor
o0o, 900, Thus, at the maximum Ger
many has been able to muster not
more than 5000, 000-
In the case of France, we know that
about one-third of the men mobilixed
have been removed by death, disability
or capture. This would mean. in the
case of Germany. 100000. which cor
responds roughly with the calculation
of 2S00,00o drawn from the German
oflcial lists. which are far behind the
fact-that IL. are slow in publication.
Reserves Under Million.
Now. the French have, as we are told
by their representatives In this coun-
try, 100000 men left in the field This
means. roughly speaking. that $780,
00O-almost one-fourth-have been
kept out Of the army for munitions
works, transport and all necessary Ia
Dor. Apply the figures to the Germans
and we shall get somewhere about
100000. Now, TO recapituiate. The
Germans had 100000 men available.
at most: 100000 have been put out by
capture. disability and death; 100000
are retained In necessary industries;
the total Is 100000 and there are left
10000 or. making still greater con-
cessions. say 100000. OF this num-
Der. 2.500.000 at the least are on the
western front. 100000 on the eastern
front and ESQ. 900 elsewhere in the Bal
kans and doing necessary garrison and
guard work. This leaves somewhere
between 100000 and a million of re-
serves.
Now, the official German lists show
casualties OF over 100000 in the last
twelve months. For the next twelve
months the Germans will have only
reserve supply of a million. at the
most And In the next year many hun
dred thousand American troops will be
added to the western line.
By contrast, the British and French,
with their allies. now have upward of
5000. 900 troops on the western front
facing the 100000 Germans. In addi-
ton, the British still have more than
q million and a half of reserves the
French have practically none and the
United States has whatever We can get
to the firing line between row and
August l, 1915
Still Outnumbered by Foes.
1t Is quite clear. then, that even II
Russia quits the war Germany cannot
by bringing all her eastern troops
west equal the French and British
numbers As to transferring Aus
TRANS. granted IL were possible. which
10 unlikely. Italy has sufficient reserves
to send more troops to France than
Austria, Bulgaria and Turkey COM
bined- I dwell on this detail because
In certain quarters, and for obyious
Il .
tached to this detail
It Is. in point of fact. unlikely that
Russia will make peace. II she does
not very few German troops and no
Austrian can be moved west The
truth is that the eastern line has al
ready been SKINNED SO deeply that the
Russians were able to accomplish much
before their recent offensive collapsed
Now. given the figures which / have
set forth, / believe that before next
July the Germans will have to choose
between a wide retreat In the west
and a great dfsaster-the disaster
which came to Lee in 1864. when he
remained too long in the lines abou,
SRichmond. and to Napoleon, when he
kept his armies in eastern Germany
after Dresden, In 1913. And a wide
retreat must be, as Napoleons retreat
after Leipzig, a confession of defeat.
No Reserves for Offensive.
So much for the question of men
Germany has not the reserves for an
other great offensive. She has not the