The Washington times., 1917-10-27
OFFICIALS FORESEE
LONG WAR; PEACE
PLANNED FOR 1919
By DAVID LAWRENCE.

| IL MS reply 10 Opc. NOlHlhS
| has happened since to change his
| opinion.
On the other hand, there Is a great
| deal of valuable information safely
secreted in the minds OF high Of
| ficials as to the plans and purposes
of the allies. without explaining or
| intimating in the slightest degree the
nature of these plans, 1t is permissible
| to say that tho7e plans specify in
detail what is to be done in the re-
mainder of 1917, what is to be under
taken Immediately in 1918 and carried
through to the next December, and
then these plans comprehend certain
other things for the year 1919 and
also general idea even prevails OF
what must be accomplished in the
spring ofs192O. Obviously such plans
are military. They look three years
ahead. 49,
Long War Indicated.
But, you will say, 1t is the business
OF the military establishment to plan
far in advance. So II is. But there is
difference between mere planning
of a military or naval program and
the concentrated effort that actually
means a use of the mobilized power.
| many people IN Lne OnlIcQ SIdIeS en-
tertained the notion last April that
the war would be over by the autumn
of this year; others said by Christ
mas. II poll could have been taken
outside of Washington, most Ameri-
cans would have guessed on a short
war. But the impression that the
men who know what is getting on
give is that 1t is a long haul ahead.
Lord Kitchener didn't popularize him
self by predicting three years of war
in 1914, and no member of President
Wilson's Cabinet wants to do any pre-
dieting at all. Yet their privately
expressed views do not Indicate a be-
lief that the war is near its end, but
that 1t is in the very middle stage
of its duration.
"The war will be over when we
have won," said one Cabinet secretary
as he outlined in a general way plans
for next year, and the year after and
so on. He did not underestimate or
| oyerestimate Germany's strength.
He merely estimated the time It
would take for the allied strength to
deal the effective blows which will
mean victory, apparent as well as
real. That mans Judgment is all the
more worth taking, because il there
were a ray of peace on the horizon he
would know 1t, and IL there were a
chance for peace he would be among
the first to help drive for II.
End Is Not In sight.
When Premier Lloyd George said
peace was not in sight he expressed
exactly the viewpoint of Government
officials here. The end is not in
sight. America is just beginning
and to entente minds that means a
new stage in the war, a new reason
for waiting until the full weight of
American might can be hurled against
the German lines.
Can Germany hold out? Have the
Central Powers enough food? They
would not have had enough IL Russia
had remained intact and Roumania
unbeaten. Russia's revolution has
prolonged the war but has not altered
its outcome. Germany was getting
wheat and supplies through the Rus
sian lines before the revolution came
Undoubtedly the frontiers today are
not well protected because OF the mil
itary chaos in Russia. But every
American who has returned from Rus
sia within the last four weeks tells
the same story. 1t is one of decided
optimism and encouragement Rus
sia may have been turned topsy turvy
in the last six months but she will
come back. 1t may take another
twelve months, but her return to the
fold will come at an opportune mo
ment
Look Ahead to Russia.
So In viewing the Russian situation
the tendency here is to look far ahead
not to consider what is Russia's
plight today and this year but what
will be her military effectiveness in
1918 and 1919. The American en-
barge and British blockade are keep
ing from Germany raw materials vi.
tally needed, but the civilian popuIa-
tion of the Central Powers Is not
starving. Austria is in worse condi.
tion than Germany but. so far as pure
opinion goes, most people do not
think a shortage OF food will force
peace. Remembering that the South
fought bravely for two years after the
issue had really been decided, there
is no confidence of a German col
lapse.
The only argument that will appeal
to the German general stan is su-
perlor military strength. The spirit
of Germany is unbroken-there is no
thought OF defeat largely because the
allied power is underestimated. Be-
lievIng that America is still bIuffnE
no attention is being paid to Ameri-
can activities. Only when a million
Americans have taken their places in
the battle line and a million more are
behind the lines in reserve, and hun
dreds OF thousands more in training
camps and cantonments in the United
States will the true situation dawn
on the German military authorities