The Alaska daily empire., 1917-09-25
ALLIES EXPECT
 TO WHIP KAISER
 WITHIN Z YEARS
Experts Find Conditions on Both Sides Point
 to End of the War
 by Close of 1919.

WASHINGTON, Sept. A. (ByI maiD+The government of the Unit ed States figure that if the war fol lows it's normal course Germany will be beaten beyond the possibil- ity of carrying it further in two years.
 This is the statistical estimate, based on the enemy's resources: Man power, birth rate, food supply, factory capacity-in short, every ma terial element, compared with the figures for the Allies who oppose here
 This does not mean that the war will necessarily run two years, for it does not follow that the Gen. tral Powers will persevere to the point of exhaustion. Long before the two years are up Germany's statisticians will have realized the grim certainty of the calculations. She will probably make the best peace she can rather than fight on when there is no hope of victory.
 There are those familiar with the
  has already reached this point and that the peace propositions that have been mooted-such as those contained in the Pope's message are the tangible evidences that her military actuaries have reached the same results of their own.
 Chance of Mistake
 gvvI- goI based every war move we are mak- ing, may be upset by any of the eventualities that would disturb the symmetry of the equasions. Russia may struggle out of her morass of confusion and again become al support There may be revolution in Germany; good crops or bad crops would have an effect and ev en the weather cuts some figure.
 New inventions may bring the breaking strain nearer to our foe or enable her to fight on. For in stance, a better substitute for cot ton in the manufacture of explos- ives than wood pulp may be found, in which case the tables would have to be revised.
 But assuming conditions remain as they are; with average crops, normal seasons and the inventions on one side or the other counter balancing those on the other, Ger many will not be able to fight be- yond the fall of 1919.
 Our military program goes only that far. By that time we will have 2,000, ,00O men in the field The ship building activities will have over come the submarine wastage and re- stored the tonnage that has been de- stroyed so that for all practical purposes the sea will be as open for the supplying of England and France with the products of the world as they were at the opening of the war.
 Destroyer Fleet Big Aid Our destroyer fleet, treble the number of such ships any country has ever put on the sea, will all have been in operation long enough to make the sea safe for merchant men. Our full airship program will have been carried out, and will out number the utmost Germany can build in the same period, three to one. The railroads of France will have been rebuilt and the devastated lands will have been restored to- partial fruitfulness.
 The governments insurance for soldiers is based upon the same es- timate The figures adduced in Con- gross do not extend beyond the two year period.
 The casualty estimate - 100000 killed. totally disabled, and partial ly disabled-that the insurance is to be paid on. covers twentyfour months. The intuition supply is worked out on the same schedule.
 In fact. if it was known that the world was coming to an end with 1919, what might happen in the war line afterward could not be more