The Bridgeport evening farmer. [volume] (Bridgeport, Conn.) 1866-1917, 1917-11-23


iod," by DR.. Dernburg CWirtschafts-
zeitung der Zentralmachte), written
on the occasion of the recent Confer
ence Of the combined Economic Asso-
Citations of Germany, Austria, and
Hungary, at Budapest. DIR. Dernburg
was formerly German Co1oniaLSecre-
tary, and during the way has played
an appropriate part in revealing to
the. American people the true nature
of German policy.
We confidently expect the war to
end on terms favorable to the Central
Powers. On any other hypothesis it
would be senseless to discuss the
question of transition economy at all.
There is, indeed, a strong agitation
on foot in Germany in favor of
dictated" peace such as would i'm
pose our conditions upon the rest of
the world. I will not discuss here
whether such a peace bat all at
tainable, or how long and what saw
rifices would be required to attain it.
Suffice to say that the problems of
the transition period after a dictated
peace would bear a very. peculiar
complexion, they would involve a
long continued garrisoning of occu-
] pied countries, the forcible levy of
! contributions in raw materials and
/ SOlQ, anu SO on. A O1CLdIeu peace
would in fact, be little better than
an armisttce-no peace at all-and
would necessitate the continuance Of
the existing economic conditions.
Anyone, therefore, who speaks of
transition economy must assume that
we shall embark on a peace by agree
ment in the sense of the Austrian
Emperor's speech from the throne,
where he declares that "the true
i peace formula is only to be found in
a mutual recognition of a valiant de-
fence, and in establishing conditions
whereby the. future life of peoples
may remain free from anger and VEN
geance, SO that for generations to
come the appeal to arms may be I'M
necessary
But even so, the question is not
easy. The Central Powers have used
up their natural resources to a great
er- extent than the Entente; the En-
tente, on the other hand, has thrown
a greaer strain on it's credit. In every
country the means of production
have been exposed to tremendous
strain. Substitute industries have as
suned extraordinary proportions. The
worlds means of transport are, to
a large extent, destroyed by sea and
rendered inefficient by land There
wide hunger for raw material and
commodities of all kinds. Can it be
satisfied in "a short time? The an
swer is, No =. assume that the
resolutions of the Paris Economic
Conference will be entirely dropped,
and that there will be no boycott
from any quarter. The universal ne
cessity will undoubtedly impose this
Leaving out Of account the diff
ficulties Of transport and exchange,
the fact remains that all countries
will compete for raw materials. The
exclusion of the Central Powers and
their allies from the number of con-
sumers, has nowhere produced sur
plus Of raw materials.
But even inside every single nation-
al economic unit a competition has
grown up between various demands,
| each equally claiming to be in the ma
tiona1 interest.
First, there is the@demand for the
repair Of military material. Even If,
as desire and hope, we arrive at in
ternationa1 arrangements for the pre-
vention of war, they will only secure
confidence If they are backed by the
strength and determination of the
contracting powers.
These repairs involve, first, the re-
newa1 Of millions Of pounds worth
of destroyed material for which there
! will be an immediate demand.
Second, there Will be a demand for
storage. How necessary this is the
Central Powers have discovered by
y bitter experience. England, too, has
lost her island security. So that not
only must ordinary peace supplies be
replenished, but supplies of the most
important foodstuffs and raw mater
ials must be stored and financed to
. serve for the needs of many years
ahead. Then, thirdly, comes the mat
tural demand of the civil population
for the satisfaction of it's daily needs.
We cannot hope to arrive at a salts
factory arrangement between these
three competing interests without
facing further difficulty that a sub
stantia1 fnroad will have to be made
upon the ration left over for civilian
needs.
All these things must be paid for
in goods, gold, or credit. Exportable
goods do not exist in sufficient guam
titles.
Our stock Of gold is not available
!! for the purpose, and, as for credit,
many Of the countries (which produce
raw materials are not in a position
to give 1T. The sources Of credit in
4 CInCE countries are 1IluCH IMPAIRED
by war loans.
Credit, however, cannot be secur-
ed by force. Nothing remains but to
withdraw part Of the imported raw
materials from serving the needs of
the civilian population and to work
them up for export purposes SO as
gradually to arrive at a commercial
and financial equilibrium.
Now, owing to the interruption of
the war, this export trade will not
get under way as quickly as would
4 seem desirable. We shall, Therefore,
have to prepare our minds for a very
Icing period sof transition. and, like
the rest Of the world, shall be in need
of a peace by agreement resting upon
a solid basis. Above all, under the
conditions that I have described, the
return to free private commercial
dealings is not to be looked for too
quickly.
Add to this great domestic difficult
ties, not only in our own, but in all
countries. Industry has been trans
formed by the war, and though it
has accumulated great resources,
these are to a large extent inmobi1-
lied in waP loans. There are, there