The Washington herald., 1917-04-29
By JOHN L. BALDERsroN.
Copyright, 1911. by the Mcclure Newspaper
Evndfcafel

Syndicate.)
London, April z. (by maiD Military
opinion here is now positive that
whatever surprises the future may
hold in store, trench warfare of the
type that prevailed on the western
front for two years and a half has
ended forever. Having agreed upon
this, find that authorities of equal
knowledge and eminence disagree. rad
ically concerning the strategy of the
1917 campaign.
One point upon which civilian opin-
ion has gone widely astray is the
character Of the German retreat. The
abandonment by the Germans of their
trench lines over wide front at the
beginning of last month was not a
voluntary maneuver. as the German
press has loudly proclaimed, but was
compelled by the battle of the Somme,
which, instead of being a failure or a
draw, is now proved to have been one
Of the decisive victories of the war.
German Retreat Inevitable.
I was permitted to send dispatches
from the Somme front last summer
stating on high authority that a Ger
man retreat was inevitable as a re-
suit of the inexorable wedge being
driven in the German lines. This
withdrawal was expected in the late
season set in at the beginning Of
October. and two months in which the
British and French hoped to rout the
German armies were lost. The rains
alone enabled the Germans to hold
out in the Arras salient, created by
the Somme battle. and in the great
Noyon salient, until the beginning Of
spring, but when spring made possi-
BILE the re-commencement of the in
Al
made the best of a bad job. and COM
menced a skiIIful. and during its first
phase a successful, retreat.
But while Hlndenburg was forced
to go back. he was not compelled to
retreat so far or SO rapidly as he has
done in the tactical situation con-
fronting him on the Somme. find
four views current here in competent
circles concerning the intentions Of
the German high command. The in
itiative In the present campaign does
not entirely rest with the Germans,
but speculation about the allied plans
is not regarded as advisable at pres
ent. The four interpretations Of the
Teutonic mind that find favor in Lon
don will be summarized in the order
of their popularity.
Four Interpretations Possible.
1. Germany. faithful to the last to
the Prussian dogma that the best de-
fensive is the offensive, plans a great
battle in the west in the hope of de-
stroying the. bulk OF the French or
British armies. or so crippling them
that peace can be obtained. But the
reserves to maintain the 16S new and
old German divisions now present
upon the western front, or within
call in the depots, are not sufficient
to maintain the German units at their
present strength after the beginning
OF the summer. so that a victory, IL
II is ever to be obtained, must be
won promptly. A military lewiston
in 1918 must be regarded by the most
optimistic German as impossible. Ac-
cordingly Hindenburg is now engaged
upon a gigantic gamble. By with
drawing and restoring the war OF
maneuver he brings the elements Of
luck and good generalship back into
play, so that with inferior forces he
may hope in great open field battles
TO win decisive victories. The FUR
ther he retreats, laying waste the
country and destroying the communt-
cations, the greater his advantages
when the decisive struggle comes, be-
cause behind the German lines the
railways. roads and billets remain un-
damaged, while the allies are COM
PEELED to advance through desert.
May, BE to Gain Time.
2. Another school OF thought, ad-
mitting the intention of Germany TO
seek a military decision this summer.
considers that Hindenburg will not