Morris tribune. [volume] (Morris, Minn.) 1880-2000, 1917-09-07
COMPUTES SOLDIERS
CHANCE AS IS TO l
Statistician Says Only One American
in 500 Likely to Lose a Limb
During the War

81. Paul pioneer Pr6S.-'l I've D6Gn
drafted and will in all probability go
to the firing line in France. Are the
chances for or against my returning
home safely?"
1t was young man employe Of
Roger Babson, the Wellesley salts
tician, who asked the question. He
wasn't afraid of what might happen
to him, in fact, he was rather proud
to go, but he simply wanted informa-
tion for use in arranging his affairs.
Of course, Mr.. Babson, even though
he deals with figures at all times,
could not give the young man an Off
hand answer. But he made up his
mind that the soldier-to-be deserved
reliable answer. So Immediately
the statistician got busy, obtained Of
fetal figures and was soon able to
give the young man this answer:
"Fifteen out of sixteen of the boys
who fight in France, in all likelihood
will be safe and sound one year after
they enter the trenches"
BASED ON FRENCH LOSSES
Mr.. Babson's conclusions are based
on the mortality figures of the French
army during the full three years of
the war. It should be remembered
that the present fighting is not re-
sulting in anywhere near the number
of deaths occurring during the first
two years, when such battles as that
at the Marine, at Ypres and at Ver-
dun sent the mortality rate soaring.
I'm the first place." Mr.. Babson
said, 1.-The disease scourges which
used to raise havoc with armies in
the field are no more. Cholera, dys-
entery and typhoid no more take a
horrible toll from the ranks; modern
methods of sanitation and preven-
tion have made these things of the
past.
Lets take look at the figures in
the matter. In round numbers, s.
100000 men have fought under the
banner of France since the beginning
of the war. Of these approximately
$4,000 have died from diseases of
various kinds; comparing these with
the mortality figures of peace times
for men of the same age, we find that
they are about the same. Remember
taht during the first months of war,
before it was possible to care properly
for ailing soldiers, deaths were at a
terrible rate, which brought the rate
! for the three years much higher than
it is at present.
so under present methods of sani-
tation, a man is not as likely to die
from disease in an army as he is at
home.
About 100000 men in the French
army have been killed or died from
wounds during the three years of
war; half of these died during the
first year. But in compiling the
statistics, we'll take the average,
which is 100000 a year, or about
one-sixteenth of the total number en-
gagged. Thus, considering a man in
this war for one year, he has fifteen
chances of returning home to one of
being killed.
DEATH RATE DECREASING
But, as I have said, half of these
men, considered above; were killed in
the first year of the war. Since then
the mortality rate has been dwind-
ling until now it is very low for a
year. If such a condition continues,
it is very likely that no more than
one man in thirty or forty will be
killed. That seems fully enough,
but the mother at home should re-
member that twelve men out of every
thousand, at the army age, die each
year during peace time; that is, one
man out of eighty-three dies each
year in civil life.
Figuring deaths from both dis
ease and wounds, under conditions
such as our boys are likely to en-
counter, any young man is about
three times as likely to meet death in