Imperial Valley press., 1917-01-11
HENRY CLEWS' BUSINESS VIEWS.


the war ndllsrias as that which collapsed IN December
is not likely to be repeated Whe there mas oeen
some recovery from the recent break there IS little eX
pecation of former high prices being soon attained
Peace or no peace war contracts for the United States
are permanently the The first check upon Tor
egn war orders the warning of the Federal Reserve
Board against British treasury notes. Next came the
ability of Great Britain to manufacture an immense IN
crease in her munitions as we'll as portion TOR nel
Allies also that henceforh Canada will receive the over
flow orders which had been coming to the United States
The most potent factor however in dscouragng war or
ders is the irrevocabe peace drift Despite the failure
of recent peace movements despite the vigorous pepara-
tons both sides for more bitter struggle and
despite the of conflicting assertions and msead
ing information facts become more and more over
whelmng viz On side the growth strength and aver
sion premature peace; the other supposed weak
ness and intense desire for peace. Undenlaby the
drift toward peace is becoming daily stronger There
much fear that ruthless submarine warfare may involve
the United States; yet it hardly seems credible that Ger
MANY will deliberately destroy friendly relations with the
strongest of all neutras-the nation that be of
priceless service to all beligerents. Germany diplomacy
must appreciate that there is nothing to gain and MUCK
to lose by preciptatng breath with the United States
which could only result in injury herself With othel
belgerents friction must be expected While such
conditions remain but so long as those at te
head of affairs preserve cool heads no serious conse
ouences need be anticipated.
While the war outlook is somewhat less confusing
there is also clearing within the field of domestic
political affairs Now that the tide has turned and the
set of the main is determined 1t is the edces
that will have be chiefly avoided Among the recently
developed certantes is that the year 1917 will show te
deficit of undoubtedly S40O000OO0, and perhaps $780,
OOOOOO due to Mexico preparedness higher government
pay big river harbor and public building appropriations
and general increase in national expenses caused by the
extension Of governmental and sociastic activities Co.
gress has yet revealed its intentions to dealing with
this problem although its leaders planning for ac
complshng legislation before the present CongreS:
expires March Among the proposals are the exten
sion of the income tax to smaller incomes, an increase il
liquor and tobacco taxes restoration OF OF the stamp
taxes The plans, however that find most favor
bond issue and increase in tariff duties. The Adm
istraton is believed to favor low tariff upon tea sf
fee, sugar and wool, purely revenue measure The
Republicans would probably oppose this plan by the cry
of "a free breakfast table, and favor revision upwards
on of the textile schedules also higher tariff
chemicals and dyes in order to protect native industries
which the war recently started here upon large scale
considerable number Of establishments and ny
millions of capital have been launched during the last
years supply chemicals and dyes formerly import ed
but now cut off. These commodities produced here
in sufficient quantities to almost entirely satisfy home
requirements and vast quantities of products formerly
wasted and profitably utilized while industries thus
established promise to be profitable and make the co-
try independent in time of war, provided they not
overwhelmed by foreign competition. The fear of dup
ing is probably exaggerated for political effect yet the
industries able to present claims for protect!
that will certainly serious consideration from both
parties 1t thus develops that the county is facing
other period Of tariff agitation. Tariff revision is al
ways strong element OF uncertainty; but revision u
wards, which is intended will be less session matter
than revision downwards which is not possible at this
time.
The effect of peace drift abroad, and tariff discus
sion at home will be to hasten the readiustment of bust
ness peace basis. The stimulus upon prices
has not yet lost its momentum it may in few instances
cause still higher prices, if scarcity becomes acute
transportation facilities do not improve. But the waste
and demands for will diminish, if not end
that speculation for the rise this must become
more and dangerous prices gradually bach
to the sway Of natural conditions This does not
that commodities will fall to their former level the
contrary high average promises to continue for some
time come because of high costs of production
worldwide scarcity of both commodities and labor MOTTO
speak of the tremendous burden of debt and
ton What may be expected is that prices though high