Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1917-05-06

man trenches. save by the submarine
infested ocean lanes.
Advancing Toward Victory.
Viewed as a military problem. the
war is advancing toward a satisfactory
solution with unmistakable regularity.
Britain has come into the field this !.
year organized. her armies and her gen.
erals are trained, her man power is at
It's maximum. she outguns the Germans
and her armies. unlike the French and
the German, are made up of young men.
the best of her manhood. German
armies are retreating and German hopes,
I or conquest have long ago faded into
the hope of a drawn battle. The ma
ton that hoped to conquer Europe now
hopes to last long enough to escape
destructive peace terms. z
But ii is not yet time to expect q
German collapse, granted that the coll
lapse must ultimately come. When the
war is over the cost to Germany in
manhood will be beyond that of all
other nations. She spent huge num-
bers against France in the first cam
paign and before verdun; her losses
In her Russian campaigns were very !
great, particularly in the first years.
At the Somme she suffered mainly at
British hands. while the French loss
losses are being made to the British,
who are, in turn, bearing the heaviest
burden. Tomorrow Germany may ex-
pect to lose to the American troops
that are to come.
Germany's Human Sacrifices.
When the war is over the percentage
of men killed and disabled in Germany
will vastly exceed that of any of her
n,,N 81
holds are relatively short. she is still
able to man them. She had more than
| 100000 to start with. Her own lists
| show loss of more than 100000.
which means a permanent, loss OF above
100000. Such figures as I can get
suggest that her loss has been much
| greater: perhaps her permanent loss
has been 100000. But 10000 are
all that are needed TO hold her lines
and give her such reserves as she yet
needs. however greatly she may be out
mum bered
The military and political masters OF
Germany have decided that even the great
human sacrifice, disproportionate to that
OF all other nations fighting. shall be borne
by Germany rather than that they shall
have to concede defeat or give up stolen
territory. So far they have been able to
persuade their people to stand by them:
they have been able to do this because Of
the submarine and the Russian revolu-
ton We believe Germany is beaten. but
We have no means of convincing the Ger
man people. They believe that the allies
must give over the battle before numbers
win II for them. Even though we refuse
to accept their logic. we must recognize
that they accept ii. and that their deter
firm ground. far their minds are COM
cerned, as does our determination for Va
Campaign of 1918 Assured.
In sum, the present indications all point
to campaign of 1918. Despite German
shortage of food. 1t now seems likely that
Germany will weather the crises of June
and July and survive until the new crop
begins to come i'm. This means that there
will be no surrender due to famine this
year.
On the military side there is no present
promise of a German collapse before snow
flies. despite the steady progress of Brit
sh armies and the unmistalable superior
ity OF the British over the Germans in
material and men. Further German re-
treats are assured. but there is pres
ent indication that these retreats will
bring the allies much beyond the Belgian
frontier or within striking distance OF
AK Ia Chapelle and the lower Rhine.
A complete Russian collapse would. IL
followed by separate peace. make il in e
send vast armies to Europe and the
French and British armies would have to
play the role of the French army from
the Marine to the Somme; they would have
TO hold up Austro-Gergau nuinbers until
the new ally was organized ;snd on the
field. A Russian attack. on the ,ther hand.
unlikely as ii now seems. mis- NJ end the
war this year. So might an Ar,ylo- Ameri
can demonstration OF success ain feeding
Britain and dsposing of the Submarine.
But. laying aside all thosi elements
which represent the chances s.nd looking
at the situation purely from the military
point of view. ii seems to mt that Ger
many has the men. the guns md. so far
as 1t is now safe to calculate. ithe will to
carry on for the present year and To begin
the campaign Of 1918. IL is TO this cam
paign that the British Were; preparing
when was in London 1t Is TT this cam
paign that the United States Nmust pre-
pare: for the Russian situs tion S-cmsins so :
confused that for many month"; IL may he
at least possible that there wilth n Rus
sian detection. and therefore 4 break in
the allied line. that can be III ed for Of
fensive operations only by American !
armies