The Bridgeport evening farmer., 1917-02-12
HENRY CLEWS
 WEEKLY LETTER

WEEKLY LETTER
 A new and, it is feared, final crisis has developed in our relations with Germany; and unless her present sub marine policy is moderated, single overt act, may precipitate war. Us- ually the severance of diplomatic re- lations is followed by hostilities, but Germany has shown some hesitation in adding to her numerous enemies and should this spirit hold, it is yet possible that such calamity may be avoided. This country plainly does not want war. That conspicuous fact has been amply proved by. the for bearance of our Government to a de- gree that often provoked adverse crit icisn of other nations. Let us hope hope that it may not be our lot to add fue to the conflagration- now devas- tating Europe, and that instead we may be left free to lead in hastening the return of peace.
 Common prudence, however, dic tates ample preparedness on our part, Tn case of hostilities, our fleet would
 
 cooperate with the Allies. Our aid in this respect would be prompt and valuable.e On land, it might be some months before we could render vital assistance. There is practically no chance of invasion in the United States, though ? considerable guard ing force would be required at home. To send over even a half a million of we'll seasoned and properly trained men would require a considerable period, while the forwarding of million or more would be a still great CT task owing to the difficulties of transportation and equipment. The most efficient first afd we could offer the Allies would be cooperation of the American fleet, prompt and am- pie supply of munitions Tor France, Italy and Russia, and more liberal if nancing of these nations in order to assist Great Britain, which has taken on the brunt of financing the Allies, We could also do much in building new merchant steamers with all pos sible energy in order to replace those destroyed by submarines. Such efforts would be quite as advantageous to the United States as to the Allies These vessels could be constructed for strict ly American owners, and if properly managed would constitute very profitable investment for the nation as we'll as the owners. Such an enter prise would be simply taking adyan- tage of a grand opportunity for the immediate establishment on a firm basis of the United States as a mari time power. For several years to come ocean tonnage will be scarce and freight rates high. No such at tractive opportunity ever occurred in our history, and American enterprise should be quick to take proper ad- vantage.
 The continued weakness of the stock market is significant. This week it has been largely due to foreign liquidation. Such declines are usual before the beginning of hostilitieS, partly as a result of timidity and some times in order to anticipate necessary war financing. In this case there has been extensvie foreign selling, both British and German. The British selling was due to the paying of de- mand loans from proceeds of the re- cent: $25O,O00,O0O loan. This trans action released considerable collateral which has been steadily offered for sale. The most important source of weakness, however, was probably from German sources. The result of German selling was distinctly notice able in foreign exchange. Marks ad- vanced sharply to over 70, owing to the demand for remittances, it being understood that fully 75,000,000 marks was purchased this week. Previous to this foreign selling, the market weakened on expectation of cessa-5 ton of war orders, which are becom- ing less frequent and less profitable than in the early stages of the war. To some extent the stoppage of for eign munition orders will be offset by domestic orders from the American Government for preparedness. Some of these contracts are already being. placed, and in event of our entering the war such orders will of necessity accumulate more rapidly To cap the climax in the security markets there is strong bear party which, encour- aged by successful campaign of several weeks, is disposed to push it's advantages to the utmost. When peace negotiations began the market was heavily overbought. It is now in equal UduScI OI pCCOIulIS ONOISOlO, III which case a sharp rally would follow any favorable news, or when the un- favorable has been amply discounted. Aside from the war, home condi- tions are generally favorable. Trade is in sound condition, but much hesi- tancy prevails owing to the great un- certainties of our international rela- tions The steel industry is fully occupied and seems assured of abund- ant orders, peace or war, yet hesita- ton is marked in many directions. Not few concerns have offered their establishments to the Government in case of war, and the mobilization of industry to a war basis would be eff fected with much less Arrangement than two or three years ago. Our textile industries are equally perplex- ed as to the future. Large orders for woolen goods are expected for the army, but manufacturers are at a loss as to the securing of wool supplies which are scant and dear. In event of war, the Government will probably commander all American grown wool. Transportation is another ser fous prcDiem,-tne dcrangement export trade, freight embargoes and scarcity of cars adding to the trou bles of shippers and manufacturers. Whether the Government would un- dertake control of the railroads in case of war, is a matter of conjec- ture. As yet there is no apparent