Weekly journal-miner., 1917-01-31
PROSPERITY IS CERTAIN AFTER
 WAR IS OVER
HENRY CLEWS, NEW YORK BANKER TELLS w HY CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE DISTURBED.
Special Correspondence.

Special Correspondence.
 NEW YORK, Jan. 20.-The busi- ness community has already settled down to the conclusion that peace, though within sight, is somewhat re- mote, and that the wearisome strug- gle must continue for months moro, and possibly another year, unless sions. Our security markets arc now adjusting themselves to new situa- ton. The strictly war industrials have partially but not entirely rccov- cred from tho reaction precipitated in December by opening of peace nego- tiations. These shares are now being handled with caution by spcculators and investors alike, since it is recog- nized that the furorc therein was over done, as was freely predicted in my previous advices. Another class of industrials, which benefited from but was not dependent upon war orders, has enjoyed more marked recovery. This was especially true of some of the steel shares. For these it is well understood that peace will not mean cessation of prosperity. On the con- trary, what it lost in abnormal war orders will probably be largely offset by peace orders for reconstruction work abroad, it being fully realized that under the most favorable circum- stances Europe will be unable for several years to come to meet the de- mands for rebuilding cities, railroads, bridges, cars, steamers, etc. The rail roads of Great Britain, France, Ger many, Austria-Hungary, Russia, etc, have been overworked and under-rc- paired ever since the war began. Ev- cry ono of these countries will be ob- liged to make extensive repairs and replenishments outside as we'll as in side the war zone. Their own steel facilities will be tremendously over taxed, and the only other satisfactory source of supply will be the United States. It must also be remembered that important enterprises and con struction work in all parts of the world have been held up by this great war. Fully 4,OO0.OOO tons of shipping have been destroyed since the war opened Great Britain, with her en- ormous Shipbrilding capacity of about d million and thrcc-quartcrs tons a year, will require several years to make good her loss of 2,400,000 tons by war. British ships have suffered hard usage, and repair bills will be tremendous, while a larger tonnage than usual will be scrappcd for the first year or two after peace is es- tablishcd. American shipyards will consequently have opportunities ncv- CT dreamed of, and for the next two or three years at least foreign and do- mestic orders will keep them fully employed, even without the expected orders for the American navy or the new policy of preparedness. Still an other helpful factor is the trade activ- ity within the United States, which insurcs a large home demand for steel for railroads and other construction purposes. There is good reason, therefore, to anticipate period of prolonged activity in the domestic steel industry, but profits cannot be expected 10 continue on the abnormal scale of l9l6, since the competition is growing and costs of production have already risen abnormally
 Interest of American manufacturers in export trade Is growing fast. Our past failures to win and hold foreign markets because of our disinclination to meet foreign conditions, have | taught us an effective lesson. One of | the first requisites to enlargement of American foreign trade is a suitable banking system which, though form crly lacking, is now being rapidly l supplied. The war pushed us into q position that would have taken a dc cadc to acquire; we have gained foothold in foreign markets formerly | dominated by Britain, Germany or France from which it will be difficult to eliminate us. Of course, these will make strenuous efforts for their recovery; but fortunately VIC have great advantages in enormous plants, high efficiency. greater adapt ability and, as just said, improved facilities. IL is unnecessary for us to have any fear of so-callcd dumping. for Europe will have no surplus to waste in this fashion for many years, and costs of production here must remain high because of Inc scarcity uf labor, high taxation
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