New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-01-14
The Future

The various points to which reference has
been made would seem to indicate that during
the current international conflict, and 70,
some time after, there will be a persistent ID
ward trend in commodity prices. While hi,
country is receiving vast sums of gold tor Is
exports, these funds will continue to b. s.
pressed in spending power, and will opera,
both directly and indirectly upon prices Il
continued use through foreign loans in the q,
velopment of international trade would b
much to offset this tendency.
Section 246-C of the Federal Reserve Ac. en-.
powers the Federal Reserve Board 10 susps.
for time any reserve requirement specified Z
the act. This means that the national bsrr
of the country and the Federal Reserve bsrc
may be permitted to reduce the amount Of re
serve money ordinarily held. This would ter.
to at least temporarily maintain a price lsgs
during period Of contraction. If there is Wis.
dom in this principle, why should not The re
verse policy also be wise, at times, and d.
board vested with power TO advance for tine
the amount of required reserve, or az least dr.
ing period Of gold hood, which would tend
stabilize prices? Under normal conditions
when funds can be freely loaned abroad, this
policy, of course, is not necessary. For the
moment, however, it would be most helpful
Unless European nations are completely de-
moralized after the war there should be
strong trend, after the period Of rehsblltato''
o. I'D iprraacoI forai0n
duction for export, which will inevitably be s
pressed in lower commodity prices thrcughoa'
the world. The efficiency Of the French rcpa
as shown in relation to the English experisno,
after the Franco-P russian War, is an interest
ing illustration of this tendency. In 1871 Eng
lish exports increased in value si00OO,0@
while in 1875 they fell below those Of 1871 b
10 per cent. In 1869 English exports amounted
to s251, 100000 and rose by 1875 to f2Sl,Oo0'
OOO-a gain for the period Of but II per csn-
French exports in 1869 aggregated 4,OOeOo''
900 francs in 1875 they amounted 10 4,NQVVV'
900 francs--a gain of 20 per cent. English eS
ports in 1872 reached 9S54,00O,O9O; IN 1872
e373,000,0OO-s gain Of 5ia per cent DuriHg
this same period the imports Of France sho'to
a decrease Of 1 per cent, indicating wnen
studied in relation to the export business
very definite gain in wealth. 1t Is thus qu"
evident that the exigencies Of the French p'
pie found expression in increased efficiency
The United States is likely to have, IN arg
degree, these same general tendencies Of fns'
fish experience in its trade relations af'er Wv
war. No one can measure the time, nor w
volume We can have no serious loss IN r'
aggregate Of national wealth unless we eAP'''
too much. Our difficulties are more IKE!
be of an industrial character, as the shllH o
trade develop the need for readJustmen'. w
many has already appointed an Imperial Oon
missioner for the Transition from war
Peace" Our problems, in comparison with tn'E
of belligerent nations, will Of course De minor
ones. Nevertheless, definite plans should nov
be developed for the guidance OF both cSP'"
and labor when it becomes necessary
Our men of affairs have got to estimate"
think-to work. What do we really know y
the aggregate, of our production IN reia''0u
our exportS-about what will be lett iol ~
sumption by our own people by next sPIlns
Our statistics are recorded mainly in doA''.,
and our prices are inflated 0rganIzaun
dependent upon facts-and we resent fscS' =
June of the year in which the war broke on.
registered at the Hotel Adlon, in Berlin. VS.
requested TO sign card giving certain ~
for the index system Of the government Ne
been a native should have been previous
registered. If properly employed-goOd.
out of employment--a subject Of econolDN
terest to the governments problem I"
solved! Our problem will be TO MAINTAIN
adequate spending power, through a con'ln-"
of employment. \,
find l have not specifically answered
question of the young druggist: do you n'.j
that gold will cease to be used as medium '
exchange after the war;" My space being "
hausted shall answer briefly, "Nol"
Nots.--Ths figures used. ranging over sgsn "a.
period. necessarily hsys been taken troN. ~
sources ard some estimated, must not o - asv
as Indicative OF than tendencies ~ sss.,ys q
ever. they believed to os fairly FepIe'e'
actual movements. - s..a 81
il is fully realized that many points have e'. vi;
gested which not fully covered. hnt US -
Impossible within the limits Ot the article