Evening star., 1917-06-03
POSSIBILITIES OF ANOTHER
GERMAN RETREAT REGARDED
Likely to Come Some Time Between Now
and Next Spring-Probably Means Re-
tirement to Franco-Bel gian Frontier.
By FRANK H. SIMONDS,
Author of "The Great War;" "They Shall Not Pass"


Copyright 1e17-The Tribune A
On September "a last year. three
months after the beginning of the bat
tie of the Somme, I pointed out In
Sunday article the possibility of Ger
man retreat in consequence of allied
progress in that battle. At that time l
indicated that there were two possi-
bilities Of retreat-a limited retreat on
a front between Arras and scissors, to
avoid the perils incident to allied prog
ress on the immediate front OF the
Somme. and more extensive retreat
to the French frontier.
Contrary to general expectation.
there was no retreat last year. De
tailed information which is now coming
to hand and information which l op-
tanned while 1 was with the British
army in France point to the fact that
had there not been an unexpectedly
early onset of bad weather last year
the German line had become SO shaky
that a retreat would have been neces-
sary.
AS it turned out. the bad weather.
which began last year a, month Garner
than usual, enabled the Germans 70
stand in their lines on the Somme until
treat consequent to the allied prog
ress of the previous summer, but tney
were able to give it something OF the
character Of a voluntary and strategic
withdrawal, as they would not have
been able to had 1t occurred during the
progress of the battle Of the Somme.
German Lines Untenable.
It is now perfectly clear that the al
lied progress at the Somme had, by the
first of october, 1916, made the German
lines untenable. A deep wedge had been
1vfu In "a
and the position Of the Germans IN the
famous Noyon salient had become peril
GUS in the extreme. Making virtue
of necessity in retiring, the Germans
devastated the country over which they
withdrew, with the obvious expectation
of preventing an allied offensive Tor
many months. They evidently believed
that 1t had been the purpose OF the al
lies to attack when the weather became
good again from the positions from
which the British were attacking when
bad weather terminated the battle OF
the Somme.
We now see clearly that the allies.
whether or not they had intended to
tainly begun many months before to
prepare for attacks north and south OF
the old Somme front and before Arras
and Soissons. Therefore. the German
retreat did not materially slow up the
allied attack, and, instead Of several
months of pause after they had reach
ed their new front. the Germans were
attacked by the British April and by
the French April 16; that is. three and
four weeks, respectively, after their
great retreat began.
Never Intended to Hold Line.
There has now been advanced the in
teresting theory that the Germans had
never intended to stand on the line that
they are now maintaining between Ar
ras and Rheims, and that they were
pinned down by the Unexpectedly
prompt attack of the allies and forced
to fight on line they had not intended
to defend. This seems to me an ex-
treme theory. Every indication that we
yet have rather points to an eXpecta-
tion Of the Germans to occupy right
through the summer the whole line in
which they stood before the British at
tack of April 9. On the other hand, we
are beginning to have much more cred
ible reports OF a preparation by the
Germans'to withdraw again. Accounts
of burning villages have become fire.
quent; the destruction of the cities of
Lens and ST. Quentin is now complete
and there are multiplying evidences
which may be indicative of new Ger
man retreat on a wide front
1t seems to me, from such information
as can gather. that German strategy
was based on fighting a delaying and
defensive battle on the western front.
possible without running any great
risk of disaster, for two reasons: First,
to give the submarines as long a time
to operate as possible. and, second, to
preserve the illusion Of successful re-
sistance for their own people and for
the world up to the time when the end
of the present campaign may pave the
way for new peace proposal.
Plan to Stand Fast in North France
In other words. it seems to me that
the Germans mean to stand fast as
long as they can in northern France
in order to be able to go into a peace
campaign this fall with the superb
cially accurate statement that their
lines in the west cannot be broken and
that Germany cannot be driven out of
France, much less out of Belgium; but
If this peace campaign falls, the Ger
mans will be able in the spring to re-
tire to their next line, as they retired
last spring to the line on which they
now stand.
culations were materially upset by the
completeness of the British success on
the Vimy ridge and along the Scarpe
during Easter week. III you compare
the progress of the British before Ar
ras with their progress at the Somme
last year, it becomes clear that in a
single week the British this year burst
through all, the permanent line or Ger
man trenches front OF at leaSt a
dozen miles. At the Somme. on the
contrary, they were unable to pierce
all the German lines at a single thrust
that is, all the permanent outer crust
and instead they had methodically to
burst their way through one line after
another and they were not actually
through the whole first system of Ger
man defenses at the Somme until Oc-
tober, whereas by the 10th OF last
month the British advance had forced
its way through the four lines which
constituted the main German defense
and were pushing out toward reserve
or switch" lines in the rear.
British Success Shown in Tactics.
The result of this original British sue
cess has been shown in the German tao
tics. At the Somme there was very little
German counter attacking. On the con-
trary. as the British pushed through one
line of trenches after another the Ger
mans constructed new lines OF trenches In
the rear. When the battle began the
country behind their regular system was
practically open. By the time the British
had penetrated their original line there
were many other systems all the way
back to and behind Bapaume But In the
battle Of Arras the British penetration
was immediate and complete. and as the
German switch" lines were unfinished
and relatively weak the Germans were
compelled to throw in their reserves at
once and by sheer mass bring the British
[ ,I,i1 LOT fod