Evening public ledger. [volume] (Philadelphia [Pa.]) 1914-1942, 1917-11-20
ENGLAND LOOKS
FOR A LONG WAR
Italian Campaign Revises Views
of Germany's Reserve
Power
By GILBERT VIVIAN sELDEs
Special Correspondent, o, tho EvcntaO Ledger

By GlLBERT VIVIAN SELDES
Special Correspondent o, the Evening Ledger
LONDON, Nov. 1.
ANY review of the war situation writer
Ain the week of the Italian debnclo Is
bound to seem pessimlstic. To avoid mis-
understanding. I must ask tho reader &c
peiieve that the opinions set down here (and
'hey are by no means persona" opinions
which are interesting but worthess) were
iormed' elaborated and expressed. either to
or by the writog, long before the Italian
CaHna ~ Uegan. There are in every coun-
'ry three iets OF opnion--the thoughtlessly
opium stics the thoughtlesSly pessimlstic and
tne informed 1t is with informed opinion
that this article deals,
nave written italian dcbacle," but Il
would be mistake to take those words
IN the s"n"e Of a disaster to Italy Even
u ltalV "crc ten times as hard hit as she
's, even If she were oyerrun, which heaven
ana the Allies forbid, the disaster TO her
would not be half so serious as the ruin
OF FOOLISH optimism in tho Entente. The
people who really suffer from the revcrsos
on the lsonzo are those publicists and
statesmen who have assured US that the
Hlles were beyond the risk of reverses
for sixteen months we have been told
,"o th'ngs: that the German morale was
breaking up and that the German reservc
was beihg exhausted with sure insight
INTO military purposes, the correspondents a
at the front and the critics ut home have
insisted upon these two things, which are
ln" TWO most important factors in the
Nl'iitary defeat of Germany. They have
not consciously lied The men at the
front have seen Germans dragged from dug.
outs after five days OF drum fire which has
broken their nerve. cut off their re-enforce-
ments and their food, and been the pre-
iude TO an attack by wel-fed. energetic
ana cheerful troops The ale of these
pitiaole captives has been broken and from
.ns evidence we were asked 20 believe that
tne @ ''erman army was qulverins. ready to
fall apart like Jelly
Al nome credible experts hayo worked
OUT the process of exhausting Germany's re-
serve. Mr. Hilaire Belloc has done this
very We'll conservatively but cheerfully
IN 'he penny press the phrase itself has
been used with the result that most people
were of the impression that C;ermanv had
no troops. except some few shock battalions
lor an attack. one got tho feeling that
we haG only to make casualties Of the COM
parat,F"ly few men opposing us. and the
resistance OF Germany would be over As
Tor the eastern front. we. were given to
understand that it was the rcst-curc. No
sturdy troops were kept there, but the men
who went through the mill on the western
front were sent there TO recuperatc.
Loose Talk About Peace
II was considered necessary, in, order
TO Keep up the prestige of our Allies, to
say that we were winning against terrible
defensive powers. That was true and is.
But individuals who should have known
better gave II out that the power of Ger
many was breaking and that we were with
in visible distance of the end. 1t was not
official but IT sounded good and people be-
leved IT, Today | find Some surprise in
the British press at the belief, reported
In the United States. that the war
will be over by Christmas wish to as
sure you that more loose talk about a SUD.
den peace is going on In London than in
Philadelphia
And now this army of shattered morale
and exhausted reserve has put between five
and eight complete army corps into the
Held not on the defensive but on the Of
fensive The combined weight of the Brit
ish and French armies has been Inadequate
to keep it engaged; 1t has massed against
Italy, and reports of feeble resistance"
and getting in by the back door" do not
cover the essential fact of Germany's re-
naming power. correspondent pitifully
remarks that If the Germans had attacked
near Gorizia or on the Bainsizza plateau
he would have met fighting force. No
doubt. But We are not able to determine
where the enemy shall attack The inabi-
ity of the Allies to keep the Central En-
pires on the defensive is the great disaster
of this summer. And 1t is no use TO blame
Russia. We may have to fight and win
this war without her.
In making the staying and offensive now.
er of Germany the first feature Of this re.
view I am merely doing the safest thing:
am trying to give such a view of the
situation as the enemy might hold. so that
The terrible mistake of underestimation can.
not occur. Most Americans. | am told by
friends, are mentally convinced
that the war may go on another year some
hink eighteen months; those who say two
years are called pessimists The purpose of
his review is to indicate why Il may go on
.wo years longer and what two years war
will mean TO America, And the first of
he reasons why is the simple military rea-
son that the Allies are not yet able to pin
Germany down to any place, to hold her
IN the defensive and It seems now to meet
my offensive anywhere, which the Central
Empires can make.
The second reason why the war may 20
IN two years Is that Germany is In large
art persuaded that her choice is between
and Downfall, and she seems
o have chosen WorldPower. l mean that
he mad dream of Central Europe may be
transformed into the nightmare of German
europe If Germany believes herself un-
itItdtcu touhy, SHe pTOSpeTS III ner ltd1- !
an campaign. with the view of restoring
PARTS of Italy to Austrias parts to the tenn
,oral power of the Papacy, her imperialism
nay take the Napoleonic form. She will
rave to fight us and the British Empire TO
he last ditch. to be sure. And that is ex-
'ctly the point: that we must be prepared
or this last ditch. even II II Is a ditch dug
along the Atlantic coastline.
Dissolution in Germany
The process of dissolution Is continuing in
Germany and we may please ourselves by
linking about IL il we have time for such
pleasures. But for US to trust In a German
evolution is as sensible thing as It would
lave been for Sir John French to trust 10
he appearance of angels on the retreat
rom Mons. II may be that angels or arch
rs held the Germans up on that retreat:
,ut no one has suggested that these celes-
ial visitors would have taken the trouble
o come II seven divisions OF British troops
lad not been present to need their aid So
I would be a folly stepped In our own
Hood for US to depend on a revolution in
Germany to help us. We can help II, no
loubt And that is as far as we have any
light to go in thinking Of the matter The
more frequently we say that we will talk
With q democratized Germany, the better
or us; but we must understand that the
way 10 democra 'iZn Germany is to defeat
,utocratic Germany IN the only way which
lutocratic Germany can be made to feel de.
eat which Is In the field