New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-08-05

sufficient reserves to send more troops to
France than Austria, Bulgaria and Tur-
key combined. I dwell on this detail be-
cause in certain quarters, and for obvious
purposes, great Importance is being at
tached to it.
1t is, in point Of fact, unlikely that
Russia will make peace. If she does not,
very few German troops and no Austrian
can be moved west. The truth Is that tho
Eastern line has already been SKINNED 50
deeply that the Russians were able to &C.
complish much before their recent Of
fensive collapsed.
/ Now, given the figures which have set
forth, believe that before next July the
Germans will have to choose between a
wide retreat in the West and great dis
aster-the disaster which came to Lee in
1864, when he remained too long in the
lines about Richmond and to Napoleon
when he kept his armies in Eastern Ger
many after Dresden, in 1918. And a wide
retreat must be, as Napoleon's retreat
after Leipzig, a confession of defeat.
many has not the reserves for another
great offensive. She has not the reserves
to last another year of such pounding as
the last, and her Western foes, with the
help of the United States, have the men.
Before the year is over am satisfied the
British will give US new and convincing
evidence of the real situation.
| AS to guns, the Germans have been out
gunned in the West for more than year.
Their own official reports have again and
again conceded this. Fewer guns mean
greater casualties, and if this condition
persists-as it must-it means the gradual
breakdown of morale-a fact already
proven by German urrenders--85,0 900 at
the Somme, $4,000 at the Aisne, $4,000 at
Arras and Ypres and 1900 at Verdun,
100000 in four battles, together with
more than 500 guns.
On the material side it is exceedingly
unlikely that Germany can be starved out.
but another year will bring greater hard
ships, greater suffering, and failure of
crops would mean ruin. Germany has
suffered for two years more than Britain
! or France is yet suffering, or will suffer
for a year, and the moral effect is increas-
! ing all the time. It will not be decisive
| factor, but it will weigh.
Looking to the commercial side, the
fact is this: Every month the war goes on
Germany loses more of her commercial es-
4 ,e In Prif
colonies and Great Britain for years.
! remember the Right Hon. William NJ.
Hughes, Prime Minister Of Australia, ex-
planned to me two years ago how German
commercial influence, and particularly
German control of the metal industries,
had been routed out of Australia, where it
was once strongly fortified. The same
thing has taken place all over the empire.
! 1t has taken place in France, in Italy. 1t
is beginning to take place in the United
States, and will go rapidly forward. 1t has
happened in the Far East, where Japan
is the gamer; in South America, where we
and the British profit.
Prospects After the War
Each month the war goes on the process
continues. Imagine what chance German
agents and German goods marked "made
in Germany" will have in Belgium after
the war; in France; in Great Britain,
after the Zeppelin raids; in the British
colonies, where hatred of Germany is far
more intense than in Britain.
The German shipping and manufactur-
ing interests are keenly aware of all this.
Even the permanent possession Of the
Berlin-to- Bagdad empire would be no i'm
mediate counterpoise to the loss Of the
Entente markets and the closing of the
Entente world to German products after
the war. A war prolonged until the United
States, having lost thousands OF lives, was
permanently allied with the other foes of
Germany, and the American market closed
by tariffs, would re fatal to German ship
ping and commerce, however successful
in permitting Germany to occupy Serbia
and dominate Asia Minor.
The war has added nearly $4,000
600 900 TO the German debt, and Germany
had no such accumulation Of capital as
Greet Britain, France or the United
States. If it is prolonged for another year
it will take toll of the wealth producing
population far greater than that Of any
other nation. To-day Britain's casualties
are not third Of the German, and casual
ties mean the loss Of the best Of the pro-
~ he
In my judgment, Germany cannot, for
these reasons, carry the war on until No
vember /, 1918. do not believe that she
will attempt to do II il the United States
sends half million troops TO the Western
front before July I, 1918. The recent Ger