New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-03-28
Germany Has
Even Chance,
Fiske Thinks
May Be Able to Send Fleet
Here After War,
Admiral Warns
y. S.. Must Prepare
For Eventually
Navy Needs $4,000 More
Men and a Larger
Air Service

Rear Admiral Bradley A. Fiske
speaking last night at meeting OF the
Navy League in the Waldorf-Astoria
declared that the chances seem ever
that Germany will not be beaten He
sounded a stern warning of what Amer
ica's unpreparedness might cost her
showed how it was to this country's in
terest that Germany should be defeated
and boldly pointed out what he con
ceived to be the weaknesses Of th'
American navy.
The address was the first delivered
in public By the admiral since Marcf
20, when he was forbidden by Secre
tary Daniels to speak before the Amerl'
can Defence Society. Last nights STIR
ring speech, Admiral Fiske said, haC
been submitted to Mr.. Daniels in ad
vance and had received his approval
Carelessness Brings Disaster
Admiral Fiske said:
L, takes moral courage TO look at
danger squarely in the face. estl-
mate its quality and quantity ac-
curstely, and then decide what action
TO take, with a clear head and steady
nerve. ,..
The greatest disasters in history
have been caused by an underestl-
mate of the gravity Of a military
situation. In order 10 guard against
making an underestimate, the Cen
eral staff of the German army de-
yised method called "the estimate
of the situation" method. In using
this method the first step is TO write
the mission, or the object TO be at
tanned. OH piece OF paper. Inc
second step is TO write on piece
of paper the obstacles in the way OF
attaining il and the various dangers
connected with il. The third step
is TO write OH piece OF paper 'he
facilities for accomplishing the Vp-
iect. These various things are "il1,
ten down not by one man only oui
by number OF officers, all traiheu
in strategy. Finally. after an analyt,
ical discussion Of the hrst, second
and third steps, the fourth step IS
considered and an agreement reaened
as 10 the fourth step, which is the
decision TO be made.
By this method, each situation IS
handled as definite problem TO De
SoIved bv the reasoning faculties.
Tne situation as a whole IS loglcaliy
anslvged. and each Of the component
narts of the situation Is discussed
mart from the others. The chance
~ making an underestimate IS re-
Jnced 10 a minimum, and. which IS
ain,os, as important, the chance OF
80 nysrestimate with the possible re-
s"ltino manic is also reduced TO
minimum.
German Fleet in Atlantic
In our own case at the present mo-
,,a,'t the part of this method when
concerns us the most - the second
,.art. that is. the obstacles when
ronfron+ the United States IN carry
inc out its policy, and the dangers
with which the country Is menaceu.
Tho principal obstacle is our own
Mental apathy. The present war was
seen coming plainly by army ahd
navy people for many years thoueh
NO could rot estimate ITS speed if
con,ing. and, therefore, could not tel
oxactIy when il would arrive.
The war itself has been gong on
Cor nearly two years and elght
r,onths and the hard military tact
is that the Teutons seem to be ahead
so Ear. Perhaps few people Will as
nrte the statement that the chances
aro at le6st even that, when the
troatv Of peace is signed, Germany
lii he hotter situated relatively 10
~ rest of Europe than she was be-
fore the war. and that she may orIng
about a condition such tnat she VIII
be allowed to send her heet to this
side. ,. ,,.Lola
danger will pass away LOT the pre-
ent. But as the chances seem even
that she will not be beaten we mus
visualize the fact that her meet 10
twice as Powerful as ours. Inc su-
periority in ships. etc. was not quite
90 great as two 10 one wnen the wal
started. but it was greater than wv
90 ono in the number of trained ori-
GERS and men and organization ana
10 the summer of 1913, the Ger.
man Acct carried out man9uvres OF
L;rd that we shall not be able TO
corrv out until our battle-crulsers
sLoii have been drilled in our meet,
~, ia not before 1920. The German
rsnnuvres were not secret oi
course: manouvres of such magnl-
,rJe must be performed in the slght
- ali men. In fact, the German
nrenaratiors have beer carried on for
,,ore than half a century with per-
feet openness.
Must Build Up Fleet
Taking I'D the third step IN the
,,;r,ate of the situation, what are
80 facilities for meeting successfully
~ Danger? The only facilities are
enrtained in our fleet, which has not
more than half the power Of the Ger
Now VIC come TO the fourth part
the decision. What is our decision
I, seems only common sense TO say
that VIC should build up feet as
rapidly as We can, especially those
narts in which il is weak, and more
rsnecially those weak parts that can
he strengthened the most quickly.
Our main weaknesses are four:
First. lack of battle-cruisers; second,
lack of trained general staff such
as Germany has; third, an insuf,
6cient number Of trained officers and
men; fourth. aeronautics.
We are doing the best We can TO
get battle cruisers, and Congress has
established an Office OF naval opera
lions. which il now being developed.
Therefore, We are doing the most we
can 10 overcome the first two weak
nesscs named; but il will take some
wears 10 overcome them adequately.
Enlistmcnts Must Increase
As to the third weskness-the lack
Of trained officers aud men-we have