Omaha daily bee., 1917-02-25
AUTOMOBILE FIELD
NOT HALF FILLED
Overproduction Not Likely for
Many Years, Even at the
Present Prices.
THREE MILLION IN USE NOW

to the development of the motor car
industry and so many prophecies
have been ventured without proper
consideration OF vital and controlling
factors that a clear and simple analy-
sis OF the subject may serve to dissi-
pate much of the unfounded con-
lecture.
The automobile market is divided
into two broad fields. First. the rural
class. winch includes all persons en-
gagged in farming and others in va
rious businesses who live i'll towns OF
less than 500 population. Second,
the urban class. which comprises all
people in any but farming pursuits,
who live in towns OF 500 or more
population.
In the rural or farming market
there are 6,500,000 families. One mil
lion of these now own motor cars
and 100000 are poor, illiteratc. or
negroes, who for the purpose of this
study may be excluded from the
prospective buying class. There re-
main, then. 100000 farm families
who are possible automobile buyers.
Big Field for Statesmen.
In the urban class, covered by
1000 towns and cities Of more than
500 population, there are about 5000,
900 home owners. OF which number
only 100000 now own cars. Ac-
cordingly, there remain 100000
prospective buyers in this class, or a
total actual unsold market in both
rural and urban classes, of 100000
possible automobile buyers,
The accepted average life of an au-
tomobile is about FIVE years in the
hands OF the original owners; and as
the man who once owns a car will
not thereafter be without one, we
must include the recorder market,
which in the calendar year of 1917
will be about 100000, this being 20
per cent OF the 100000 now in use.
For the year 1917, therefore the
automobile business will face
market OF about 100000 possible
buyers. Not more than 100000 cars
will be built in the coming year, leav-
ing a possible excess market OF
100000 buyers at the beginning of
1918
These figures are decidedly con
sentative because they take no con-
sideration of % any export outlet,
(2) the people who have or will have
two or more machines. (3) increased
population, (4) increased prosperity,
(5) million or more town and city
families who do not own the homes
in which they live, but are well able
10 buy and maintain a motor car, (o)
the business houses, retail and whole
sale merchants who use thousands of
roadsters for statesmen, and many
thousands more OF delivery cars
Irregular automobile chassis with
commercial body, (0 taxcabs and
other cars for public hire.
An Important Fact.
An important and noteworthy fact
is vouched for by the editorial depart
ment of Automobile Topics, a we'll
known trade authority, which has
been making careful analysis of the
comparative nature OF automobile
service. They state that of the 3,000,-
600 motor cars OF all kinds in service
in the United States today, they can |
conservatively say from their investi-
CATION that over one-half of the mile
age of the 100000 cars is used for
business purposes. Literally this
means that of the 100000 automo-
biles running in this country TODAY,
one-half, or 100000, are used for
business purposes. This leaves only
! 100000 in use for pleasure or social
transportation purposes.
In considering the 100000 autom-
blles in use today which may legit-
irately be classed as pleasure cars"
all important fact should be borne in
mind, namely: the so-called pleasure
car OF today has a distinct economic
use, 1t being only reasonable to de-
duce that the time and money spent
in motoring for pleasure or social in
tercourse almost invariably takes the
place OF some other form of expendi-
ture OF less actual economic value.
M otoring is pleasure that makes for
broader vision, saner and more helm
tul diversions, and a more sympa-
thetic social life. A nation without
its sane pleasures is hopeless. There
tore, 1t IS far from logical to consider
the so-called pleasure Car of today as
an added luxury
Room for Much Development.
If production increases at the aver
age rate maintained for the last five
years-which is unlikely, due to great
er manufacturing problems and to in
ability OF the selling and distributive
branches TO keep pace with greatly
augmented manufacturing volume
the point of saturation will not be
reached for five or six or even seven
years. And some Of the leaders in the
industry predict that it will be mat
ter OF ten or twelve years.
All signs point to a continued de-
velopment for several years to come
for just how long it is difficult to saw.
but, as in many other new fields, lin
itations and curtailment of expansion,
arbitrarily predicted, are merely evil
dence of shortened vision or unfa-
with all of the facts.
1t is true that materials and labor
are more expensive and increasingly
hard to secure. This condition is not
serious, nor is it likely to be. The
makers of medium and high-priced
cars overcomes the difficulty by
an advance in their selling prices.
The manufacturers Of low-priced
cars build in much greater quantities,
are. protected by contracts until the
end of the automobile year, July, 1917,
ard are able to absorb additional ex-
Dense hv snre, dipy a. o,N 49,. =. |