The watchman and southron. [volume] (Sumter, S.C.) 1881-1930, 1917-09-15

materially decrease the tota, So 'erlcan
exports and should not apprec ID oily af-
feet prices this year. The question is
not what we may be unable to ship
to the neutrals, but what we may be
able to ship to countries permitted TO
receive freely. AS to that, the only
element of doubt is the amount OF
tonnage available. There is nothing
In the present situation to warrant the
fear that the countries which recoiv-
ed cotton last year will not receive
substantially as much this year. The
submarine menace has not been re-
moved, but Ii seems to be diminish
ing I'm a relative sense. The latest de-
pendable calculation shows that the
net decrease Of tonnage on the pres
ent building conditions will not ex-
ceed two and a-half million tons a
year and II is fair to assume that at
shipping cotton will be exported dur
ing 1917-191S in volume nearly, IL not
quite, equal to the volume of 1916
1917. 1t is as reasonable to antici-
pate peace before another crop can
be grown as 10 anticipate the COM
plete or greatly increasing success of
the submarine.
with the present crop of 12.499.-
600 bales. with a record Of 7.491,OS
bales taken in the United States last
year. with an unprecedentedly small,
carry lover from 1916-1917, with Liv-
orpool and Continental stocks nearly
100000 bales less than last year. with
stocks Of drygoods low everywhere and
a certain increase of demand In the
United States due to the mobilizing OF
two million soldiers within IL months
and supplying them with khaki and
tents. there Is no reason whatever for
doubt that there will be demand for
all tho American cotton in sight avail
able for export. Last year American
takings were 7,491. .0sG, and last year.
exports 5,947,165. making a total o.
l3,4Ss.250 bales or 939,25O more than
the estimated crop of this year. A1ol
per cent. decline in both exports and
domestic consumption would not
equal the difference between las
years takings and this years crop. As
shown there is no apparen,
reason for decline in either An in
crease In exports il expected with any
In shipping facilities:
only the necessities of transportation |
Of soldiers and supplies is likely tc
cause q decrease. and II circumstance.
should cause a decrease Of exports |
there is likely to be a corresponding
Increase Of American manufactures to
such extent as capacity may permit |
because the world must have clothint |
and Its stocks were never so low as
present.
From these facts It would appea
that a crop OF 100000 or even 1s,.
100000 bales this year will not excee.
the worlds eager demand, unles
some unforeseen calamity should be
fall.
THE fluctuations In price durins
the last few weeks have not bee,
surprising to any disinterested stu
dent OF the cotton market. The rem
nant Of the old crop was small ant
was held by few concerns, as 4
generally the case under such circum
stances; demand. had been quickenef
by our entry into the war and thu
iced for quick supply of army cloth
ing and other material: the GROWING
crop was in low condition and ship
ping construction had been speede(
up. Price stimulation was inevitabl.
until the new crop began to move
and then reaction was natural. Tn,
pendulum generally swings to the eA
treme OF speculative stimulus an,
back to the extreme Of speculative dc
preston, It's true poise Is usual,
about midway between.
THE market is now affected by tn
usual rush to sell new crop. A con
tributing factor Is the greater valu,
involved. for 1t requires twice
much money to finance a crop now as
1t required four or five years ago
Ffnanciers are accustomed to thinl
In terms of 10 and IL cent cottor
and can not easily bring themseIvee
to think In terms Of 20 and 25 cen
cotton. They do not readily recoe
nize ratios and relations: they are
prone to consider the old basis of
or cents as loan value; they do no
visualize cotton In drygoods now sell