The Mena weekly star., 1917-02-01
COTTON AND THE YEAR 1917.

conditions or crop statistics, past, present or future.
 Nevertheless, it does seem that there is grave danger that the com ing season wifi prove disastrous to American cotton growers, purely and simply because the high prices during most of the 1916 season are very evidently leading to a great acreage and even a ecord-hrcabing crop this year.
 The writer recently interviewed a man who is generally conceded to be a pretty close student of con- ditions that have to do with cotton crops and prices. and here are some of his conclusions.
 The great cotton producing areas of the United States are planning for a greater acreage than ever before. The biggest crop ever produced in this country was in round numbers, f7 million bales. With average weather conditions, and great losses from unexpected sources, the 1917 crop will equal or exceed the great est ever grown. and if it does, this authority ayers, there is no chance that the price vii exceed cents. 
 Illustrating the effect on the mar ket of an increase of yield, recent events tell pointed story.
 For weeks during the marketing season of last fall, the government and other estimates placed the 1917 crop at fl million bales. On this basis cotton sold in Mena as high as 2i cents a pound, with the price ranging around 20 cents for several weeks.
 Then came the late government report to the effect that the crop was F million bales more than for mer estimates and at once the prices in the leading markets dropped cents a pound-and men right here at home, who had refused 20 cents or over, were glad to close out at as low as i6 cents.
 E With proof positive, then, that an increase of from if to iila million bales will depress the market 5 cents pound. what should reason sbfy be expected ii there IS an in crease of some 6 million bales, as now seems probable for this year2
 Anyway, the best authorities be- lieve 8 cents will be a good price next fall.
 All this would not matter so much were it not for the fact that many farmers will not only plant cotton to the exclusion of food crops, but will buy and make debts on the basis of hoped-for 20 cent cotton. And if this is done, dire calamity is unavoidable.
 There's many man right here in Polk county, who stumbled into this error in i9ii The 1913 cotton crop sold at about i5 cents. That winter agents for high-priced ranges, bug gies and all sorts of like luxuries eampaigned our county. There was an epoch of buying and deht-mak- ing, everybody feeling sure high priced cotton in 1914 would pull them out.
 You know the story.
 Tn 1911 our money crop was a drug on the market at 6 cents an few had enough to pay interest, tC say nothing eff meeting the debts.
 The next year, with i2 cent cot ton, many got astart, and, last fal the high price came as blessing {, the debtors-and many happ, home it made. W
 That it may not turn to a curse inc lessons of 1914 should not h. forgotten, and, no matter how mucl cotton the farmer grows, provid first and certainly for ample foo' crops. both for family and for tn stock. Lots of localities cannot d. this, but Polk county can, and would be a sad thing to neglect tn opportunity
 The Star dislikes to even mentio another thing -hut # is fact ths our country is in grave danger to
 day, Of being drawn into the worl
 war. As matters stand, singl
 violent act on the part of Gerrlia
 submarine commander would tip tn
 balance beyond recovery Ou
 7sa1eonis;u Enow lt, and thoughtfl men fear {! Should this como. rnos -ff %tt>>>