New-York tribune., 1917-07-15

and the surrender of thousands and even
hundreds of thousands of Austrians. ms
may or may not happen again, but 1t is
possible. II it does happen we may see
Russian return to Lemberr almost without
warning. But if it does not happen, see
nothing yet to suggest repetition OF Rus-
sian achievement of one year or three
wears ago, and hence no reason to attach
great Importance to the Russian offensive
as a military affair.
Now, on the political and moral side
the Russian offensive has clear meanings
and may have incalculable value. For
MANY months the German people, with
diminishing hope, to be sure, have looked
toward the possibility Of separate peace
with Russia. This has meant the promise
of victory in the war, because it has con-
vinced them that, given .heir submarine
campaign, they could hold their own on the
West until the Allies would have to make
a German peace. And with the troops
released from the East front they could
hope to overrun the Balkans and dispose
of Italy, if not of France.
Germany's Blacklist Moment
There have been many fluctuations in
German views. A year ago, before the
Rumanian campaign, German prospects
we're plainly black; there was growing
realization that victory was unlikely and
that a drawn battle was the best that
could be expected. But the Rumanian cam
paign and the collapse of Russia changed
all this, and the early success of the sub
marine war was a further cause OF new
German optimism. But the cornerstone
of this edifice of hope was separate peace
with Russia, and this cornerstone is
shaken, if not shattered, by the present
Russian attack.
The entrance of the United States into
the war was not of greet immediate mo-
ment if Russia should retire. BY the sub
marine the war might be won before we
could intervene effectively. But with the
United States in the war and Russia re-
turning to the attack, the situation
many has not escaped AZ immediate dan
ger at the time wher che has incurred
eventual peril; she has acquired a new foe
at the moment when an old enemy has
renewed his assault.
It is entirely conceivable that the Russian
attack will come to an abrupt close at any
moment We must remember that there
is division of opinion in Russia over
Russias proper course. counter-revo-
luton may tomorrow restore the posi-
bility of separate peace with Germany.
1t is essential to guard against undue
optimism. We have been disappointed too
often in the past not to be warned now,
particularly when it comes to counting
Upon situation as little understood as
that of Russia to-day; put yet it cannot be
an exaggeration to say that if Russia con-
tinues on the offensive Germany's position
is to-day worse than ut any moment in
the war, and this fact must be at no dis
tant time clear to the Germans themselves.
II Austria Escapes
AS | pointed out some weeks ago, the
Russian formula of peace without annex
alton has removed all real cause for war
between Russia and Austria. Given an
ever increasing pressure upon Aus
tria by Russia, taken together with
| internal disturbances due to Slavonic re-
volts, and it is manifest that time may
come when we shall see Austria consider
! ing a separate peace with the enemies of
Germany; we may, in word, see the
escape of Austria Hungary from the mill
tary and political domination of Germany.
| Should we see this, German defeat would
be absolute and German aims and amb-
tions of half century would be destroyed.
In Sofia, in Constantirople, quite as
much as in Vienna and Budapest, the Rus
sian offensive must have its moral effect if
it continues. 1t would have no such effect
/ if the Russia of the Cars was again
threatening Eastern Europe with its
might. But this new Russia carries no
such menace to Turkey, Bulgaria or Aus
tria Russia filled with Utopian dreams
but impotent in the field would hardly
bring her ancient foes to resign their
conquests and adopt Russian principles.
But a Russia still protesting and practis-
ing her Utopian ideas and at the same
time strong in the field would deserve
! different hearing all over the world.
! We or Russia to Dominate Peace Council
Nor will Russia's allies be able to disre-
gard Russian ideas and ideals if Russia
is able TO resume her place in the battle
line. In point of fact. am satisfied that
either the United States or Russia will in
the end dominate the Allied councils and
exercise controlling influence on the set
Element of the world conflict. II Russia
does not go on with the battle she will
not be able TO exercise much direct infu-