Forest City press. (Forest City, Potter County, D.T. [S.D.]) 1883-19??, 1917-05-18
By FRANK H. SiM0NDS,
AUTHOR OF 1.-THE GREAT WAR;"
"THEY SHALL NOT PASS"
Copyright, 1917-The Tribune Assn
Tho New York Tribune).

"THEY SHALL NOT PASS"
Copyright, 1s17-The Tribune Assn
Tho New York Tribune).
Last week the 1OOOth day Of the war
passed unnoticed. Less tina 100 days
remain before we shall observe the
third anniversary of the outbreak OF
the grea; conflict. This was the meas
Nre that the late Lord Kitchener fixed
for the duration of the war. is there
any prospect of Il termination Wllhli
his limit?
Frankly, | do not think so. All the
evidence of a military sort points now
To a fourth year. Readers of these
articles Of mine may recall that last
year | said here that all evidence then
available pointed to "a struggle endur-
ing At least US long as our own civil
war. II now seems to me that present
indications confirm that earlier view.
In examining this question of the
probable length of The war. the ques-
ton which has been uDpermost IN the
minds and the hearts of milllons Tor
nearly three years. it is necessary at
the outset to make certain reserVa-
TONS. There are factors that we cam
not yet measure. 1t is conceivable, 1Or
example, that starvation Will bring
Germany to an absolute surrender
within the next eight weeks. But if
Germany does get through the next
eight weeks, 10 at the most. without
being forced by food shortage to- sur
render. then ii new crop will be COM
ing in, and. however short this may
I've. it will serve to keep the, country
going for a number of months.
Britain's Peril.
Now the allies have hoped. some of
their leaders have believed, that the
German collapse was due IN May or
June, But quite as clearly the Germans
have believed. and a of them still
believe. that the ubmarine
iS bringing Britain to the point OF star
walton, and will win the war before the
summer is over We may say that the
allies are encouraged by what they
hear and hope about German condi-
tions. but we must quite as clearly
reckon that what the Germans hear
and hope points quite as strongly to-
ward British ~tarvation We know mat
German calculations. as to time, are
wrong, and that Britain can last this
year. at the very least, but there is at
least sound reason for believing that
Germany will also pull through, m
that allied calculations are also beside
the mark.
Conceivably there will be an explo-
SIGN within Germany. We near much
Of the u~ndercurrent of dissatisfaction
and worse among the labOring classes:
we perceive evidences of unrest that
may lead to some sort OF change in he
German government. may even lead to
revolution. although those who know
Germany best least expect revolution.
But to reckon on peace that comes
from Germa internal disturbances is
to reckon unwisely, all things con-
sidered.
And at the precise mOmen that the
outside world is thinking most of Ger
man internal weakness, German public
opinion is buoyed up by the unmistak-
able collapse of Russia. The greatest
single fact in the war history of 1917
has been the collapse of Russia as a
military force. and there are signs that
are unmistakable that. whatever be the
ultimate outcome of this revolution. the
Russian army has been disorganized so
completely that it is 10 longer wise to
count upo it as a necessary factor in
allied campaigns.
If Russia Makes Peace.
It may be that next spring Russia
will have found herself and nave reor-
ganlzed her resources and her armies.
IL she shall have accomplished this, he
peril to Germany will be very great.
Eut. on the other hand, it is at least
as possible hat Russia may make q
separate peace with Germany n the
allies OF Germany, and that there Will
ne released for service against the
French and the British both the Ger
man and the Austrian troops noW on
the eastern line. to say nothing of
Turkish and Bulgar troops.
Nor Is 1t outside of the range OF pos
etbtlity that, given a Russian detection.
Italy Will make n separate peace or sue
cumb to an attack made by Austrian
n German troops released from the
Carpathians and the Lithuanian fronts.
Terms such as italy might be forced
60 take would easily be procured from
Austria by Germany, il she desired to
Duy on Italy. l do not mean to suggest
That Italy would betray@ her. present
Allies. but 1t is possible ,thattthey might
De unable to give her then necessary aid
to defend her fronts against an attack
such as laid Rumania in the dust last
autumn.
Personally I do not believe. judging
from such information as / can gather,
mere and abroad. that. either Russia or
italy will make a separate peace.
Neither do I believe that there will be
= German revolution. nor that Germany
Will be starved into surrender by the
md OF June or July. Recalling what
the south endured In the last days OF
the ~confederacy. 1t seems to me doubt
tut u Germany can be expected as yet
60 yield to food exhaustion, and she
has no such Industrial collapse to face
or fear az struck the south in 1864.
Laying aside the question of acci-
dents. which is a double question. as I
have tried to explain, we have this sit
uatiOn. On the military side there Is
NO reason to expect that Germany can
be conquered before the end Of the
campaign Of 1917. We should not he
misled. by the. pleasing reports that
come from the allied nations. In the
last. month the British and French have
been more successful than at the
0omme and the British have won n
really impressive victory. But having
won their original success they have