Evening star., 1917-03-11
Has Facilities for New offensi 70.

Above all. I would have my readers
| recognize what is fully appreciated in
London and Paris. and that is that Ger
many has the men and the munitions
! for n new offensive. and that it is
| morally certain that Germany will
| strike, either in the east and west. that
/ is wherever the promise of political
consequences favorable to Germany and
consequent upon military progress is
| greatest. And ] am bound to say that
the wes sht of opinion favors the west.
| despite the legend that Hindenhurg IL
an easterner. that he believes that the
! war is to be won in Russian fields.
good deal OF misapprehension
exists to the relative cost of attack
and defense in trench war. but thinR
! it is a growing conviction in Europe
that there is not much difference. given-
sufficient artillery and munitions on tfe-
side of the attacking force. The FRENCH
losses at Verdun. | am convinced. were
not greatly less than the Germans. per
haps 10000 against 100000. The Britt
ish losses on the Somme We're not L.
great deal under 6oo."no while the
british estimate the German losses at
Tn0. 900 The French losses in the sama--
battle ere we'll up toward 100000. ----'
Again. there was steady decline IN
the British ratio of losses as artillery
was used more effectively. ana ths-
French in their last offensive at Ner--
dun lost about l2.ooo men. all told. m
taking II 600 German prisoners anu
disposing of not less than an equal
n IN her of Germans VINO were Niiitu Ut
wounded and not captured. y single.
Rritish brigade at ST Pierre piVion. -
toward the end of the Somme battie.=-
took a German position at the cost OF
! 400 casualties. and buried soo' "e11--
mans and took 800 prisoners
Germans Not Worn Out. -
! The idea that the Germans are worn
ont. unable to attack. lacking IN men
or munitions, is sheer nonsense, aM0--
is conceded to be such by their Brittsp
ard French foes. The morale OF the
carmans before both the French anu~
tbe British since the Somme and NeE-~
dun successes of these two allies mas
declined. but this decline is que IN enS-
main TO the constant superiority OF
british and French artillery and to the
steady if inconsiderable advances OF
the enemy. A real success, consldeEa--
BILE gain. might transform the spirlA-
of the Germans. for the moment at
least L.
The German retirement along tha-
Ancre then, in a minor consequences
of last years British progress, but ft
has small Importance now. save as It
adds to the British confidence. W-e~'
may see further retirement. with no
greater real meaning. But what is
more likely is that we shall see a
German attack, either upon Russia.
Italy or the western allies, before
there is any permanent German 90
preston incident to the retreat IN the
west. 1t is even possible that Salonfkl
may supply the place of Calais or YER
dun. Both the British and the French
are serenely confident Of their ability
to check and repel new German of->
fensiye, as they have repelled every ef-
fort since the Marne. but neither the
French nor the British imagine that
the German has said his last word IN
the west, or that new German At
tack will be a small affair. As for the
allied offensive. 1 shall talk about this
in q later article.