The Washington herald., 1917-03-11
BY JOHN L. BALDERsroN.
tcOpgrisht. 1911. by the Mcclure Nsv,papr
ErnAic.AaA

tcorsnsht. 1911. b. the Mcclure Nsvspapr
London, Feb. iS.@This is an interview
with myself, In which propose to sug-
gest answers to the mighty war riddles
over which the world Il puzzling.
I write not as a prophet or an expert,
but as an American reporter, who came
TO Europe early in the war without pre-
conceptions, or axes to grind and ever
since has been collecting facts and opin-
ions about the wider phases Of the con-
flict II my present beliefs have any
value It Is because I have tried to keep
from from bias and remain In torch with
the best opinion A reporter should keep
his own views In the background; In this
instance I depart from the leading rule
Of my trade with less reluctance-be-
cause interviewed myself in this same
fashion once before, on March II Of last
year, and have no reason to withdraw
the predictions then made.
When will the war end?
Nothing need be subtracted from. and
little added to, the answer to this ques-
ton given at the commencement Of the
attack on verdun. After pointing out
that the soldiers measure the length Of
wars by campaigning seasons rather
than by years, I wrote: 'The first major
campaign Of this war lasted from August
to November, 1914 Then came a relative
lull, and the second great campaign open
ed in April, 1915, and lasted until the de-
struction Of Serbia in November. The
third campaign has now opened and will
continue in its turn until next Novem-
Der.
Predicts Another Campaign.
II believe that while the fighting in the
third campaign will not be decisive, sue
cesses will be gained on the allied side
- irnDnrfanCa and then the
combats will die down next autumn. The
peoples Of the entente countries will in
sist on another campaign. Germany, II
her bid for a decision has failed, VIII
then have given up all hope Of winning.
and will be on the defensive, fighting to
prove that she cannot be beaten.
There will then be, In my opinion, a
fourth great campaign, opening IN tne
spring OF 1871.
That the countries of Europe can en-
Caure a fourth war winter is inconceiv-
able to me. Starvation, revolution. an
archy in Austria-Hungary, and disturb
ances SO violent as seriously to en-
danger the fabrics of warning states
would be the inevitable result OF the
agony among the civilian populations in
the fourth winter. The fourth winter OF
war would open in November, 1917.
My estimate therefore, is that the war
will end sometime between the begin
ming of the fourth campaigning season,
in April, 1917. and the beginning Of the
fourth winter. in November. 1911.
IF it is asked why the end will not
come next fall. in response to the clamor
for peace that will undoubtedly arise
as the third winter of war approaches.
can only say that I do not think the
universal agony will have become so
great by that time as to force the states
men to give up their dreams. That situa-
ton will not be reached. in my opinion,
before the approach of the winter of
1g17-1s"
Since the news above was written the
Germans have failed to take Verdun.
suffered heavily on the Somme, overrun
half of Roumania. and inaugurated =
ruthless sea warfare which has cost
them the friendship of the United States.
Nothing has happened to change my
views of a year ago; believe the fight
ing will stop this year. but probably not
before the late autumn or early winter,
while the making of a peace treaty will
be a task OF months that will not be
completed until some time in 1873
Last year the tide turned on the west