New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-08-05
A Fair Prospect That Before the End
of the Campaigning Season Germany
Will Be Compelled to
Seek Peace
By FRANK H. SIMONDS
Author Of "The Great War;" "They Shall Not Pass"

One week ago in reviewing the military
operations of the third year of the war /
endeavored 10 set forth clearly the extent
10 which the year had been marked by
Allied failure. The high hope of August
1, 1916, had not been realized, the Russian
revolution had paralyzed the Allied cam
paign of 1917 and the Rumanian collapse
he'd terminated the last Allied hope of sue
cess in the Balkans. These things l
pointed out in their relation to the pur-
rose Of the Allies.
Yet 1t seems to me, looking the situation
squarely in the face and accepting the
statement Of naval experts, that unless the
submarine menace is mitigated materially,
if not actually abolished, there must be an
end to the war by October, 1918, at the
earliest, and February, 1919, at the latest.
There is still every reason to believe that
before the end Of the campaigning season
of 19lS-that is, by November 1.-The mill
tary situation of Germany will be such
that she will be compelled to seek peace on
terms that will mean a clear and unmis-
taxable defeat for her and for those poll
cies which have reused the civilized world
against her.
In the present article l am going to try
10 set down these reasons, because / do
not share the present feeling of depres-
sion which has resulted from the Russian
collapse. For, disappointing as this has
been, do not believe it has done more
than delay the decision for year.
First of all the reasons why / am salts
feo that Germany will not last until No
yember /, 1918, is the magnitude of her
losses. German casualty lists, as we now
obtain them, show total loss in killed,
captured and wounded of 100000. The
figure is toe low by half million, be-
lieve; but, accepting it for the moment, it
shows this: 100000 Germans have been
killed, 100000 are missing or prisoners.
Here is an immediate absolute loss of
100000. OF the 100000 remaining
casualties, not more than so per cent have
been returned to the firing line, and de-
spite various claims this is high esti
mate. This adds 100000 to the perma-
nent loss, which makes it 100000
Germsny's Man Power To-day
Now, France has, with extreme effort,
succeeded in mobilizing approximately one
sixth of her population. Germany may
have done little better-but not much.
Her advantage in this respect would be
due TO her use of populations of con-
quered districts and prisoners. Granted
that Germany has been able to mobilize
cne-sixth of her population, this must
be reckoned on the basis of nineteen years
ago; that is, the year in which the boys
now nineteen were born, for this is obvi-
ously the year that is appropriate. Ger
man population then was not 100000,
nor even 60000,O00; it was nearer 55,-
100000. Thus, at the maximum Germany
has been able to muster not much more
than 100000.
In the case of France, we know that
aLcut one-third of the men modified have
been removed by death, disability or capt
ure. This would mean, in the case of
Germany, 100000, which corresponds
roughly with the calculation of 100000
drawn from the German official lists,
which are far behind the fact-that is,
are slow in publication.
Now, the French have as we are told
o. their representatives in this country,
100000 men left in the field. This
means, roughly speaking, that 100000
almost e-fourth-have been kept out of
the army for munitions works, transport
and all necessary labor. Apply the figures
10 the Germans, and we shall get some
where about 100000. Now, TO recapitu-
late. The Germans had 100000 men
available, at most; 100000 have been put
oui by capture, disability and death,
100000 are retained in necessary in
dustries; the total is 100000, and there
are left 1900, 900, or, making still greater
concessions, say 100000 OF this number,
100000, at the least, are on the Western
front, 100000 on the Eastern front and
10000 elsewhere in the Balkans and
doing necessary garrison and guard work.
This leaves somewhere between 100000
and a million Of reserves.
Now, the official German lists show
casualties Of over 100000 in the last
twelve months. For the next twelve months
the Germans will have only reserve
supply of a million, at the most. And in
the next year many hundred thousand
American troops will be added TO the
Western line.
By contrast, the British and French,
Nth their allies, now have upward Of
1000, 900 troops on the Western front fac
.ng the 2,500,000 Germans. In addition,
the British still have more than a million
Ind half Of reserves, the French have