The Bridgeport evening farmer., 1917-02-19
HENRY l! cLEWS
 WEEKLY LETTER

The war in Europe shows no signs of abating in intensity, albeit the de sire for and belief in early peace IS growing among all the belligerents. Bitterness grows each day and aHsln- dications point to a resumption or hostilities with the coming ot spring upon a more destructive scale than ever. Evidently the worst IS close at hand, and to the innumerahle nor TOTS already endured, that of starva- ton is now to be added; starvation mot of the belligerents only, but or the millions of unfortunate non-com- batants in Belgium, Poland, Armenia Siberia, etc. Human endurance must be approaching the end. As for the attempt to starve England with SUD- marines that will prove futile AL most the results will not be worse than a temporary inconvenience or deprivation of some articles of sus- tenance. Great Britain had total ocean tonnage of nearly 20,O0O,OOo before the war, or almost one-half of the worlds total. The losses from the beginning of the war to the new submarine campaign were about A. OO0,OOO tons, of which 2,500,00O tons were British and the remainder neu- tral. Thesa losses, however, have been very largely compensated for py new construction, so that, according to an estimate of the United States Shipping Commissioner, the net loss lOf worlds tonnage. ,n4 January was about 100000 tons. Of late the out put of new tonnage has been inn mensely increased in all parts Of the world by high freights and prospects of their continuance for long period ahead. From this later fact 1t fol- lows that submarines will have to in crease their present destructiveness i very considerably before they can possibly even approach the starvation of, England. Much distress and in ! convenience may be accomplished, but starvation is practically impossi- ble because for a variety of reasons the threat cannot be carried out. First, 1t would require fleet of sub- marine many times larger than the present one to accomplish such a purpose. Second, the British navy seems tolerably able to cope with the difficulty, and has evidently found various successful means of defense, such as destroyers, nets, aeroplanes,
  marine now appears to be practically powerless against war vessels, and it's effectiveness against merchantmen when armed is much reduced. No facts are given out by the British Ad- .miralty as to the mortality among submarines, but there is reason to be- lieve it is very high. At British ports there are between 1000 and 1,200 ar rivals and departures per week, each sailing offering an opportunity to the submarine. Since February 1, 70 Bri- tish ships including trawlers and fishing smacks, have been destroy ed.S This is an average of over four per day It will require good many more than this to starve England; i; and if that contingency was in sight this country and other neutrals would undertake to ship food and other ne- cessitfes to Britain for profit, if not for humane or other considerations. In this country alone there are now 400 steel merchants ships under con- structton with a tonnage of 100000 tons. Japan and Norway are also turning out a large new tonnage. What Great Britain is doing in tniA direction is not officially known, al- though she is. much the largest ship builder in the world, and has lately turned her attention to building mer- chant tonnage with increased vfgor. The hope of defeating England by submarine is doomed to serious disap- pointment.
 The security markets have settled down to state of inactivity pending developments growing out of the war Liquidation has now been going on for two mnths and prices are cnsid- erabfy lower than when speculation was at it's height. Our relations with Germany are of course the pivotal issue, and the conviction grows daily that it is only a question of time when some overt act on the. part of Germany may drive this country into war. Our patient President shows an endurance with Germanys aggres- sions that is unfortunately mistaken for weakness. But the tremendous responsibilities which he carries should exempt him from all trifling criticism, especially as his policy of forbearance will place this country in an advantageous position before the worlds court of public opinion. Some uneasiness was induced by the threat ened outbreak in Cuba, also by fears of renewed difficulties with Mexico, but thus far neither of these contin- gencies are seriously regarded The most threatening domestic factor in the business situation is aggravation of the freight embargo by the sub marine menace to neutral vessels. Our own ships are still held in port awaiting action of the government, which is considering the effects of granting the protection which they require. Not only the ships of the American line are detained, but also those of several neutral Atlantic lines. AS a result, freight Is piling up upon the railroads at various points and a serious congestion of freight is immi- nent that will be still further aggra- vated by the scarcity of cars and the inadequacy of motive power and ter minal facilities. Much inconvenience may be forced upon the public by this situation, resulting in loss to the rail- roads and a new excuse for high prices in commodities Whether the embargo will become serious enough to impose a restraint upon industrial activity remains to be seen. Several stacks of the United States Steel Cor poration have been blown out in con- sequence
 The monetary situation may become more important factor in the near future, especially if we are drawn in- to war. No stringency is to be an- ticipated, because of the very ample resources of our banks and the gen. era' soundness of credit. The enor-