The Washington herald., 1917-07-08
sy JOHN LLOYD BALDERsToN
(copyrizht, 1911, by the Mcclure Newspapy

London (By MaiD, June Tn the
United States goes ahead at top
speed with her military preparations.
peace or at least a cessation OF hos
tilities before next winter, Is more
than a possibility. 1t is a probability
But IL America chooses to indulge In
the luxury of muddlinS. If the Keen
Judges Of military efficiency at the
All-Highest headquarters ON the
Meuse come to the conclusion that
our armies will not be ready to get
home a punch next year, then the
war may drag on indefinitely.
The position IN Germany today,
understand on the highest possible
authority, Is this:
So great Is the terror of the BANK
ers and the industrial and shipping
magnates over the commercial future
of the empire that these men are
anxious to conclude peace on almost
any terms that will leave Germany
her world markets and assure her
the raw material she needs. Ihese
men, notably Herr Ballin and DE-
Rathenau, have convinced the KAISER
the bureaucracy, and even the su-
nreune army command. that Germany
must have peace or be ruined.
Can't Hope for U-Boat Decision.
The conversation of the Imperial
Chancellor and the Emperor to the
views of the commercial classes has
been very recent, and, followed the
definite failure of the submarines TO
win the war on the sea. The decreas-
ing ratio of mercantile sinkings, and
still more the loss of large percen-
Iage OF the submarine fleet caused
Bethmann- Hollweg, privately, to In
inform the Reichstag committee about
May %, that no more hope renamed
for a decision enforced by the u
boats. The rulers OF Germany have
not been slow to draw logical con-
clusions from this fact. In order 10
win the war with the submarine, they
brought America in against them.
gambling that they could bring Eng
land. and with England the entente
to the ground before American weight
began to make itself felt.
The throw has been made. and the
decision of the dice is against the
kaiser. Germany Is now waiting TO
see what America will do, and upon
the answer given by the American
people, as well as upon peace terms
obtainable, hinges Germany's decision
TO surrender before winter, or to nght
on in the belief that the United states
will be a negligible quantity in the
1915 campaign, and that the entente
can be driven into peace OF eXhaus-
tion. which will leave Germany with
that part of her Eastern loot Wnlch
she considers vital to her imperlal-
fst ambitions for the future. In these
calculations of Germany, as they are
understood in London, the Russian
revolution, as a military factor plays
very little part.
The world was astounded at the
revolution and at the recent reNela-
tion that Russia, as military power
Is at present impotent. But Germany
long before the revolution had WIFI
ten eff Russia from her list OF powers
oorossd to her. The Russian army
was 80 disorganized. through lack OF
r,InitIons, that it would nave Deeh
unable in any case to undertake an
offensive this year. Germany knew
this last winter, and maze her PIe
parations for the Western caulpdlsi
Of 1917 regardless OF Whether sSP
s-ata neace could be made with the
car. or whether Russia chose 70
drag on nominally at war.
Fear of German Intrigue
T,a German war lords are trying
,,a;ra uss of the Russian reVolu-
,ior NOT TO paralyze the Russian
orr,v for that has been done alreaoy'
~, 10 entrgp the Socialist and LABOR
Tarties of all the entente countries
INTO a peace built up on fair-sounulns
nbrases that will leave the Germahlc
Confederation the mistress Of Europe
In these intrigues, not in the tallure
~ tba Russian armies, lies the lnnle-
djate danger before the entente.
chancellor -Hollweg, II Is
roU almost certain, has back OF
bi,, In the new grouping of the Reich-
sfaz that followed his epoch making
sdr1isson that Germany could not WIN
military decision, a majority COM
Dosed of the Center parties, that VIII
foIIovv him anywhere in getting the
hest peace possible. These men arc
convinced that peace must be OBTAIN
ed somehow before winter. only tne
declaration of the army leaders thaI
the United States will not be able 70
make good in France next year might
cnanse the policy to one OF deter
mined resistance.
In the intervening months between
pouv and winter the chancellor's pol
ic,y working with his Socialists upon
the labor parties Of other countries
and especially trying to influence the
synpathies of America, will be 10
conclude hypocritical peace.
If these attempts fail, as British
diplonats are convinced they Will fail'
Germany may then surrender and ac-
cept defeat
There may be nothing else for her
to do. With the submarines admit
tedIy incapable of winning the war,
and the German armies admittedly
nrabIe to carry out a successful Of
fenSfye in the west, the alternative to
surrender will be to agonize through
another winter, only to meet In the
spring the shock of a new American
army that will increase by the million
untfl German resistance collapses.
Ana when the collapse comes then
Germany will be ruined. II she gets
peace this year, her business men
think they can pull through.
American Efficiency Real Factor.
Counting Russia out of 1t as a mill
tary factor, Germany must get the
hest terms she can this year. or go
ahead in the belief that the allles
can be tired out next year Nhile
America muddles. Upon American
eficiency. to a great extent, VIII tnen
depend the length Of the war. Inc
other dominating factors Is the peace
Germany can obtain II she decides TO
give in before winter. Confronted by
inordinately harsh terms, she might
decide to go ahead in the hope tnat
America would not make good or that
something might turn up to disrupt
the alliance.
Opinion in all the allied countries
as regards terms of peace, is resolv-
ing itself into the two following
schools of thought:
First-There are those. headed by