New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-04-29
The Russian Situation

to-day, and that is that there IS no one
outside of Russia who has the smallest
inkling as to what the present crisis will
mean in the future course Of the war. We
have no information IN this country on
which it is either safe or wise to erect any
structure of expectation. Much of bene-
At TO the Allies may come out Of Russia
but il is at least equally possible that Rus
STA will either remain quiescent or make
separate peace.
More than four months ago those who
knew most about Russia in France and IN
England frankly conceded that Russia had
disappeared as a factor in the war. The
French statement was very simple. There
is no more Russia" was the military deci-
sion in France. In England. where the
knowledge of the Russian situation was
less accurate, there was some hope, out
clear recognition that it was mere hope.
Il NAV be that the national forces in
Russia will succeed in triumphing over so
cialism and anarchy allied to German ele-
ments and fostered and subsidized by Ger
man agents, but this has not happened
vet. despite all kinds Of announcements
and reports.
Turning now to the possibilities, we may
cav that if Russia continues to maintain
line on the Eastern front without attack
inc she will occupy most Of the Austrian
army and many divisions Of the German
army. but from these German divisions in
the East can be drawn valuable material
and more and more the best troops can be
turned toward the Western front, where
the battle is going forward tiercely and
where the decision will come if there Is to
be a decision this year. If the Russians
maintain their line without activity they
will still play useful role also in con-
tinuing the blockade of Germany and ad-
vancing the process Of starvation
On the other hand, if the German in
! trigue with the sociahstic and anarchistic
parties should succeed Russia will make a
separate peace and food supplies will be-
after a certain amount of delay, available
for the Germans Large numbers Of Ger
man troops will be released either for in
dustry or for service on the Western front,
while the Austrians will be able to renew
their attack Of last year upon the Italians
and, with German assistance, probably to
expel Sarrail's army from Saonica. Any
such event as this may easily lead to
considerable prolongation of the war and
t. new set of circumstances in which it
may be necessary to envisage a separate
peace between Italy and the Central
Powers.
The fact of the situation is unmistaka
bic. The collapse Of Russia at the present
time is wellnigh complete. Conceivably,
Russia will rally, as the French Revolution
rallied under the attack Of Europe. If we
see q German attack upon Russia it will
be safe to conclude that the Germans have
abandoned all hope Of peace by negotia-
ton with Russia. If we see q Russian
attack upon Germany, We can draw the
same conclusion. But until we see real
lighting resumed in the East it is unwise
to Danish from the calculations the posi-
bility Of separate peace between Russia
and Germany.
At the present time the war has become
a struggle between Great Britain and
France on the one hand and Germany on
the other, with the chief Allied effort be-
ing made on the Western front in an Of
fenSive, and the chief German effort being
made by submarine campaign, while the
German army is fighting desperately TO
hold some portion Of its conquests as
basis for peace negotiations if the Allies
arc brought TO the point where they will
be compelled to talk peace
All optimism regarding Russia on the
part Of those who are to-day fighting Ger
many is without any solid basis. The
wsest thing 10 do is 70 expect the worst,
because the worst is wholly possible, if not
nDw probable. If Russia collapses and
makes q separate peace, it will be neccs.
sary for the United States next year to
supply considerable number Of men on