Tulsa daily world. [volume] (Tulsa, Indian Territory [Okla.]) 1905-1919, 1917-03-11
Americas Help in the War Principally Moral influence

ment OF the attack on Verdun. After
POINTING out that the soldiers measure
the length OF wars by campaigning
seasons rather than by years. | wrote,
The first major campaign OF this
war lasted from August to NoVem-
Der, 1914. Then came a relative lull,
and the second great campaign
opened in April, 1915. and lasted un-
I'll the destruction of Serbia in No
vember. The third campaign has now
opened and will continue III its turn
until next November.
81 believe that while the fighting
in the third campaign Will not be de-
cisivo, successes will be gained on the
allied side Of great local Importance,
and when the combats die down next
autumn the peoples of the entente
countries will insist on another cam
paign. Germany. If her bid for a
decision has failed will then have
given up all hope of winning. and
will be on the defensive, fighting tC
prove that she cannot be beaten.
There will then be, in my opinion,
fourth great campaign, opening in
the spring of 1917.
THAT the countries of Europe can
endure a fourth war winter is To me
inconceivable. Starvation, reVolu-
uon, anarchy in Austria Hungary
and disturbances so violent as seri-
ously to endanger the fabrics of war
ring states would be the inevitable
result of the agony among the civ
ilian populations in the fourth winter
The fourth winter of war would open
in November, 1917.
"My estimate, therefore. IS that the
wA>will end sometime between the
beginning of the fourth campaigning
season, in April. 1917, and the be-
ginning of the fourth winter, in No
vember. 1917. If 1t be asked why
the end will not come next fall. In
response to the clamor for peace that
will undoubtedly arise as the third
winter OF war approaches. | can only
say that / do not think the universe
agony will have become so great by
that time as to force the statesmen
to give up their dreams That situa-
tion will not be reached, in my opin-
ion. before the approach Of the win
ter of 1917-1S."
What Has Happened.
Since the news above was written
the Germans have failed to take Yer
dun, suffered heavily on the Somme
overrun half of Rumania, and inaug-
uratod ruthless sea warfare which
has cost them the friendship of the
United states. Nothing has happened
to change my opinion Of n year ago;
| believe the fighting will stop this
year, but probably not before the late
autumn or early winter. while the
making of peace treaty will be q
task of months that will not be com
pletod until some time in 1918.
Last year the tide turned on the
western front. and the Germans were
thrown back upon the defensive. This
year | expect important allied vic
tories in this theater of war, and
think the Germans will be driver
back from their whole fortified
trench line as far as the Meuse, pos
sbly as far as the Rhine. This opin-
ion Is given In the light OF some
knowledge Of the members and muni-
tion supply available in France thl:
spring. What will happen upon tht
eastern front depends upon politica
as well as military factors which 1
would puzzle the closet observer II
London to analyZe now, but the fea
achieved by General Brussiloff las
spring when he overwhelmed three
Austrian armies might be duplicated
elsewhere and on larger scale with
out exciting surprise.
2. What will be the peace terms
THE war will end in a draw"
wrote last spring. Theoretically the
war of attrltion would result in com
plete German defeat If continued Ions
enough. but in practice such a war II
impossible, for at its conclusion al
Europe would be decimated an(
starving, and the lot of the victori
as bad as that Of the vanquished.
That view ! still maintain, but th
Jyo ha much a hfIGQi
in the past year and needs cXpiana
ton in this connection. Presden
Wilson's peace without victory" put
my meaning more clearly.
Neither Can Dictate.
I do not believe either side can die
tate peace terms to the other. In m.
view, the peace that is to be nego
tiated will spell German failure an'
allied success in this sense. that I be
lleve the major guilt of the war rest
upon Germany. and that the allie
will obtain a peace which viii spell
complete defeat for German scheme
of aggression. on the other hand.
German who sincerely believes tina
this Is a war OF aggression against tn
fatherlard will be entitled to CLAIM
that, from his viewpoint, German
has succeeded. since the design
men he lnnputeS 10 tHe eIttIltS u
the fatherland cannot be carried out
Each side, then, can declare that tn
predatory designs of its neighbor
have failed, and that 1t has, therefore
won the war; rival historians vii
squabble for generations over thi
roint.
Eleven months ago I wrote, "If
am right about the draw, the follow
ing are pretty sure to be among tn
terms of settlement:
"Creltion of an Independent Po
| land as a buffer state. with its ow
army and neutrality guaranteed b
Russia, Austria and Germany.
| "Evacuation of Belgium, witt
reparation for the damage done.
mo in1cmnities.
Evacuation of conquered territor
| by both sides, excepting In tn
Balkans. What will happen in south
eastern Europe I refuse to predict.
Return OF the German colonies.
There seems no reason to withdray
any of these guesses as n result of tn
peace discussions OF this winter, but
have not the hardihood to add Others