New Britain herald., 1917-11-10
Henry Glen s
Weekly Letter
Especial to the Herald.)

apparently racing civil war. Inc out
look is certainly dark, even though
Petrograd, where the revolution CEN
tiers, Is not Russia, and Maximalists
are said to be only a small faction.
The continued misfortunes of Russia
and Italy are distinctly adverse to an
early termination Of the war, tho
brunt of which has for tho present
fallen entirely upon the British and
French. American forces will soon
be a factor, although no very active
work seems to be anticipated before
next spNng. Rumors OF change in
public opinion in Germany afford
some encouragement to the Allies, but
Germany may be nble to resist her
opponents longer than expected. By
conquest she now dominates a vastly
increased number of people, against
less than 100000 before the war.
Virtually Germany is able to utilize
largely Of these people in work Of
the war, thus releasing more Ger
mans for the front. In addition to
this vast increase in her labor sup
ply, she has secured important Goa!
and iron mines Of France and Bel
GUM. the grain and farm products
of Rumania the minerals of Serbia
and the oil wells Of Galicia. 1t will.
therefore, be much more difficult job
to conquer Germany than before she
drove back the Russians and Italians.
The latest news from Russia is even
more disconcerting because of the
apparent complete breakdown of all
effective government. 1t may be that
Russia will have to go through long
period Of upheaval before finding her
self and establishing strong and
permanent government. On the other
hand. America will before long be at
the front in effective force; and
should Russia and Italy prove their
ability to come back, the longer Ger
many postpones surrender the more
drastic will be her defeat.
It is decidedly premature to as
sumo that the effect of the war upon
finance and trade has been fully dis
counted. 1t doubtless hts been very
largely discolA ted, and, whatever the
Immediate uncertainties, the outlook
for the long pull has been made dis
tinctly safer by the drastic liquida-
ton which has been in progress since
the war began. At the same it is
now fully realized that this coun-
try, sound and strong as it is, cannot
divert billions upon billions from the
ordinary channels Of industry to those
of war without enduring far-reach-
ing readjustments in values, such as
are now in progress. The causes for
the late decline have been correctly
attributed to foreign disasters, pass
ing of excessive war profits, uncer'
tainties of government regulation, in.
creasing taxes, advancing wages
transportation arrangement plight OF
many American railroads, rise in the
interest level, exhausted margins, adj
justments to war finance, and persis-
tent though quiet selling on foreign
account. What damage these conse-
quences Of war have wrought is evil
dent in the heavy declines III our
leading shares. amounting to an aver
ago of about SO points in railroads
and IS points in industrials, COM
pared with q year ago.
Many shares are today selling much
below intrinsic worth; en\allowing
for the passing Of war profits and
possible declines in a few dividends.
This crumbling of values has already
had one beneficial effect in awak ening
public opinion to the serious plight
of American railroads. The Inter
state Commerce commission is rec
lizing the situation, and there is now
treatment as to rates before many
weeks have elapsed. American rail.
roads have met the crisis far better
than might have been expected, con-
sidering the impaired facilities induced
by prolonged starvation. Railroads,
like individuals, must have sufficient
income to meet necessary expenses;
and capital cannot be secured so long
as due compensation is withheld. Our
railroads must not only supply trans
portation to the public, but must also
meet the crisis imposed by war; and
if the necessary relief is not provided
through an advance in rates, the
United States government will I'M
doubtedly be obliged to step in and
furnish the funds required.
For the past two weeks bank clear
ings have been running about per
cent. ahead Of last year. This would
suggest that the volume of trade is
about the same as a year ago; though
some allowance is necessary for TIE
rise in values, and it is to be observed
that activity is in spots and chiefly
confined to the war industries. Prac-
ticallv all branches of the steel trade
continue in state of intense activi-
ty, not only in supplying munitions
for the Allies, but in rushing our own
preparations for the struggle. In ship
building, in the making of guns, am
munition, airplanes, etc. work is be-
ing pushed with an energy and to an
extent only family realized Our tex
tile and leather industries are similar
ly occupied; likewise the chemical
and many other collateral industries.
In these lines prosperity is still rum
ming strong, notwithstanding the ac-
tivity of the Government in regulat-
ing profits by means of price-fxirg
and other devices. Good times are also
being enjoyed by the farmers of the
West and the planters of the South
who are practically free of govern
ment restraint. A few lines of bust