The daily banner. (Cambridge, Md.) 1897-2008, 1917-11-17
SEES KAISER'S DOOM
IN U-BOAT FAILURE
Pollen Points Out it Leaves Way
Clear For Americas Millions OF
Fighters.
(By Arthur Pollen, foremost British
U-TiteT m, Naval affairs

Fighters.
j (By Arthur Pollen. foremost British
! writer on Naval affairs.)
/ The perennial difficulty in war is
| to see events first as they truly are,
| and next in their right relation to
! the situation. The thing would be
| hard enough to see, as whole, ii
we had to think of the 500-mile ives
| tern front alone, but throw in the al
most separate wars in Italy, the Bal
! kans, Syria, MeSopotamia, and Rus
| sia, and add the war at sea, and who
| would be bold enough to say that his
| judgment of the position at any one
moment is likely to be right? And
it is another difficulty that each of us
is desperately anxious for his side to
win, and has been anxious for deS-
perately long time, and so brings to
the contemplation of each happening
a mind wearied by long puzzling and
nerves all On edge from constant dis
appointment. Small wonder if the
events of the last month are discon-
certing and discouraging.
For never apparently have things
gone better for the enemy or worse
for US. The German victory at Riga
seems to put Petrograd at the enc
my's mercy-whenever he cares to
devote sufficient troops to the job OF
taking it. The joint German and
Austrian invasion of Italy was the
most sudden and complete reversal
of form that the war has seen. 1t is
hardly two months since we were all
wondering whether it was worth
while giving Cadorna the extra guns
and ammunition that would start
him on his conquest of Vienna. The
defeat is not only disappearing in it
self, but doubly demoralizing be-
cause the only alternatives contem-
plated were either that Italy should
mark time or be made the spearhead
of the decisive allied victory.
Is it surprising that these things
should be reflected in equally discon-
certing political changes in Europe?
Russia. whose Government was much
more provisional than governing, is
now seemingly in the full tide of a
civil war. Italy, fortunately, had
changed her Cabinet just before the
blow fell. And now the French Cab
met is gone, and Lloyd Georges Gov
Ci 10 Cl III uSh OIl ITO oOIShoS.
The enemy, in short, has not only
won resounding military success, but
is reaping a full harvest in the polit-
created among the Allies. 1t is pos
Sible that nerves in London are a bit
on edge on account of the recent air
raids, too.
But looking On at distance,
har at, ic ao1Y,,nr q
is inclined to wonder why the more
favorable elements of the situation
do not seem to weigh more heavily
in the scale. Progress on the west
ern front goes on slowly indeed, but
without check. At no point and On
no occasion does the enemy seem
able to resist very effectively or to
counterattack very resolutely. He is
not, of course. utterly demoraliz+i.
but he certainly has none of his old
morale. On this front at least the
formula of victory is understood and
the promise of it's ultimate compile
ton all the stronger for the presence
of the first division of the United
States Army In a purely military
sense the situation on the western
front can never have been better. 1t
has, VI SOut sc, lol Cu1 pCCI
tremely good. The only novelty in
the situation is that the allied forces
and command are improving week by
sistence diminishing. Both are con-
tinuing processes, but have not been
marked by any sudden and uneXpec-
ted factor in our favor.
But at sea the situation has alter
70 NIL or oil lc
make one chary of believing that we
can trust the figures. Think for a
minute what this comparison means.
In April Great Britain alone was los
ing her larger ships at the rate of
twenty-six a week, or nearly four a
day. By September it had dropped
to thirteen, or nearly two day. In
the last four weeks, the rate has
been eight, or barely over one day.
For the last week, the loss is actually
one in seven days! For a month,
then, the submarine menace has
been reduced below the level of
what it was before the ruthless cam
paign began in February last. Again
think what this means.
In November, year ago, Ger
many informed her enemies that If
they did not make peace at once that
she would at last make real war and
crush the whole combination against
her, and generally make us sorry we
had provoked her. The idea was
that Great Britain was holding the
combination against her and that
230 submarines, all out together to
sink at sight, would dispose of at
least 100000 tons of British ship
ping a month, would scare all neu-
trails off the sea, and so bring Great
Britain to famine and the Allies to
impotence before the, Summer was
over And, as America could not
strike for year and as the war
would be over-With German peace
at the end of it-long before that, it
would not matter S pfennigs whether
the new submarine war brought the
United States into the field or not.
They couldn't get into the field il
there were no ships.
Now, bearing in mind that this
was the German plan, remembering
Just how close it came to realization,
and today looking at the evidence
that the plan has definitely and fin
ally failed. we can surely understand
how desperate the situation must be
which this miscalculation has crea-
ted. Six months ago no one could
have said that 1t was a certainty that
an American army of one and half
million or two million men could ev-
er have been sent over to France and
maintained there. The highest rate
of shipbuilding that all the Allies to-
gether could attain at earliest a year
after that date seemed to be less
than two-thirds of the rate of loss.
BY the time the American Army
would he ready then there would