New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-03-20

her present front from Verdun to Newport.
And on the political side. while most Ger
mans still expect TO hold the Polish con-
quests and keep the road to Constantinople
omen. the time has passed when many expect
to keep any portion of France or Belgium.
If Germany is running short OF men, II she
feels the immediate need Of an army Of 25O,-
600 men. and cannot find them in her own
depots, then it is clear that she can find them
only by shortening her Western front. but
that by such shortening she would release
the requisite number Of men and strengthen
her Western front at the same time.
The Restricted Retreat
This is the case of those who expect
general retreat in short time before the
first of the year at the latest. Now, on the
other side the case for the far more re-
stricted retreat is this: First Of all, the re-
cent Allied advances have made the position
Of the Germans in. the Noyon "elbow," the
whole German position from Peronne right
around TO Scissors. increasingly difficult,
without yet being actually perilous. II VIII
need only few more such advances as the
last two of Foch 20 make the withdrawal
from this salient imperative.
Look at the map and you will see that as
the French and British advance east from
their present positions they advance across
the roads which feed the German positions
at Chaulnes, at Roye, at Noyon and opposite
scissors. The Allies are. in effect, carrying
a moose around the neck of this salient, mar
rowing the neck steadily and restricting the
number of roads and railroads by which the
Germans can muniton and provision their
troops The objective of the French is st.
Quentin. some twenty miles east of their
present front. But long before they get to
st. Quentin their guns will cut the roads
leading south out of St. Quentin, and it IS
upon these roads that the Germans in
Noyon. Rove and Chaulnes depend for their
existence.
Exactly the same thing on a smaller scale
is taking place in the bulge between Arras
and Peronne. About Peronne the French
are more than ten miles further east than
the Germans before Bapaume, and the Brit
sh already have under their guns all the
roads which lead out of Bapaume and are
essential for the supply of troops holding
the front west of this town. Actually the
Allied operation consists in a process OF
gnawing right across the rear of the Ger
man positions, cutting one after another OF
the roads and railroads upon which they
depend.
One interesting and important consequence
il lenethens the German line. Instead Of a
comparatively straight front. their line takes
the form of a concave front deepening all
the time as the Allies drive more and more
into IT, This extension of the lines
quires more men TO defend them. and the
lines themselves, in many cases emergency
trenches, are weaker than the original front.
Thus to-day the German lines in the Peronne
sector are probably a dozen or fifteen miles
longer than they we're az the start.
II is necessary TO emphasize the fact that
the Germans in the Noyon elbow" are not
yet in any immediate danger of development.
The neck OF their salient between Peronne
and the Disc east OF ST. Quentin is still
twenty-five miles wide; it was more than
thirty at the start. But some of the roads
have been actually cut, and for five miles
beyond the present front the roads arc under
fire OF the Allied guns and cannot be used
without grave peril. This means growing
congestion in the neck of the salient. Il
means corresponding difficulty in handling
munitions and supplies and it forecasts
day when the further advance Of the Allies.
an advance OF not more than ten miles at the
most, will make the evacuation Of this Noyon
elbow" inevitable.
May Hang on Yet
The chances of an ultimate development
of the Germans in the Noyon salient, unless
there is an actual piercing of the lines about
Peronne and a sudden thrush Of huge
French attacking force. are not very great.
year ago the Russian retreat demonstrated
the extreme difficulty OF enveloping large
forces By similar operations. 1t remains
perfectly possible for the Germans TO hang
on for some weeks yet if the Allies do not
greatly increase their rate of advance. But
even their presens rate OF advance cannot
fail to make tho Noyon salient untenable
before winter.
The same is true Of the smaller Bapaume
salient, north Of Peronne. This is much
worse situation now than the southern posi-
ton OF Noyon. Bapaume is under British
fire. and IL the British able presently to
take Combles and bring their front east on
4 leva with tho French. il will no longer be