Daily capital journal. (Salem, Oregon) 1903-1919, 1917-01-10
Annual Business ReUiew
and Outlook for Future

Eot 10 ue sulpOSeu ludt lut dnitet Csuh-
ers and manufacturers in the country
would be making such energetic efforts
for securing foreign markets unless they
had the strongest reasons for aBtieipat-
ing success A moment IS reflection
will disclose that all our great industrial
and financial leaders are deeply inn
pressed with the opportunities for ex-
port trade, and the next decade promises
to see great progress ON part of the
United States in the foreign field. Sue
cess is inevitable, provided capital Sc
cures the hearty cooperation of gov
ernnent and labor, both of which hith-
ert0 have been so unfriendly. Foreign
trade, as l have remarked before, is
purely a matter of International barter,
and if we wish to sell we must stand
ready to buy; remembering that all inn
pediments placed up on such inter
change cause loss somewhere, and usual
ly ULon those who inflict them. mer-
lean industry passed the infantile stage
some years ago and is now in a stage of
vigorous youthfulness, quite ready and
eager to meet the older nations of Eu-
rope on equal terms.
Financial Conditions.
The financial outlook for 1917 is en-
couraging, notwithstanding innumerable
perpleXities arising from the war. As
peace draws near extensive Teadjust-
ments will become necessary, which may
induce temporary Inconvenience and loss
1t can be taken for granted that
the war industrials will not reVel in the
big profits of the past year or 50; in
creased costs in wages and raw ma
teriais preventing any such returns as
fostered the wild speculation of 1916.
Operations for the rise in commodities
will also become more and more hazard
Gus as peace draws night, for as usual
high prices will lessen consumption and
stimulate production, not to speak of
the temptation to discount the approach
of peace. 1t is in these directions where
future uncertainties will be greatest. If
we differentiate the situation and ven
ture into fields least affected by the
war, the prospects will be found more
assuring. This is conspicuously true in
home affairs, where there are yet no
conspicuous indications of the present
wave of prosperity reeeding. Our ag-
ricultural classes are enjoying extraord-
mary prosperity owing to high prices
for all farm products which afford
LARGE mbargin for depreciation. The
same is true of many industrials not de-
pendent directly or indirectly upon the
war. The buying power of the masses
has been greatly enhanced by advances
in wages, while extraordinary profits
accumulated by owners of large mercan-
tile and industrial plants created a huge
reservoir of new capital awaiting in
vestment. In all probability 1917 will
witness the launching of many fresh
ventures that will keep labor well en-
ployed, and scarce also, for no large
immigration from Europe can be expect
ed for some time to come
In the chemical industry there has
been phenomenal expansion owing to
shutting off German IMPORTS; but this
is an infant industry that will probably
be unable to meet foreign competition
without favoring tariff. If move
ment for higher duties is started in con-
gress, its most plausible excuse will be
found in this direction. The better out
look for railroads has already been ex-
planned in the early part of this re-
view. In considering the capital market
it should not be overlooked that the to-
tai new security issues in the country
fer the last 10 months was about S2,-
174,000,000, compared with 81, 1,435,351,-
400 in 1915 and 81 6,517, 800 in 1914;
also that we have absorbed about $2,-
00Q000,000 of foreign owned American
securities since the war began. besides
loaning Europe about $1,75O,000Q0O.
These figures display an astounding
ability that places us at once in the
front rank as an International monetary
power They will also profoundly af-
feet our foreign exchanges, lessen our
annual payments abroad and 90 far to-
wards changing lis from a debtor to
creditor nation. Events are compelling
us to think and act internationally more
and more.
HENRY CLEWS.