New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-05-06
Accidents Aside,
Germany Cannot
Be Conquered
in Campaign
of 1917
By FRANK H. SIMONDS
luthor of THE Great War" They Shall
Not Pass"

Last week the thousandth day Of the
var passed quite unnoticed. Less than a
hundred days remain before we shall OBJ
serve the third anniversary of the out
break Of the great conflict. This was the
measure that the late Lord Kitchener
fixed for the duration of the war. Is
there any prospect of a termination within
his limit?
Frankly, do not think So All the evil
Gence Of a military sort points now to a
fourth year. Readers of these articles Of
mine may recall that last year I said here
that all evidence then available pointed
10 a struggle enduring at least as long
as our own Civil War. 1t now seems 10
ne that present indications confirm that
earlier view.
In examining this question Of the prob
able length of the war, the question which
has been uppermost in the minds and the
hearts of millions for nearly three years,
It is necessary at the outset to make GER
tain reservations. There are factors that
We cannot yet measure. 1t is conceiva-
DIE, lOt SAdIlpAS, bllaS oSoA foNAOAA "AAA OA4AiS
Germany to an absolute surrender within
the next eight weeks. But if Germany
does get through the next eight weeks, ten
a. the most, without being forced by food
shortage to surrender, then new crop
will be coming in, and, however short this
may be. it will serve to keep the country
going for a number of months.
Brit.in's Peril
Now. the Allies have hoped some Of
their leaders have believed, that the Ger
man collapse was due in May or June. But
uuite as clearly the Germans have believed,
and many of them still believe, that the
Submarine campaign is bringing Britain
70 the point of starvation. and will WIN
the war before the summer is over. We
may say that the Allies are encouraged by
what they hear and hope about German
conditions, but we must quite as clearly
reckon that what the Germans hear and
hope points quite as strongly toward
British starvation. We know that Ger
man calculations, as to time, are wrong,
and that Britain can last this year, at
the very least, but there is at least sound
reason for believing that Germany will
also pull through, and that Allied calcu-
lations are also beside the mark.
Conceivably there will be an explosion
within Germany. We hear much Of the
undercurrent of dissatisfaction and worse
among the laboring classes; we perceive
evidences of unrest that may lead to some
sort of change in the German Government,
nav even lead to revolution, although
those who know Germany best least expect
revolution. But to reckon on peace that
comes from German internal disturbances
is to reckon unwisely, all things considered.
And at the precise moment that the out
side world is thinking most of German IN
ternal weakness German public opinion
is buoyed up by the unmistakable collapse
Of Russia. The greatest single fact IN the
war history Of 1917 has been the collapse
Of Russia as a military force, and there
are signs that are unmistakable that,
whatever be the ultimate outcome of this
revolution. the Russian army has been DIS
Organized so completely that it is no longer
wise 10 count upon IL % q hNNNS"-' 49,
tor in Allied campaigns.
II Russia Makes Peace
Il NAV be that next spring Russia will
have found herself and have reorganized
her resources and her armies. If she snail
have accomplished this, the peril to Ger
many will be very great. But, on the otner
hand. it is at least as possible that Russia
nav make a separate peace with Germany
and the allies of Germany, and that there
will he released for service against the
French and the British both the German
and the Austrian troops now on the East
ern line, to say nothing of Turkish and
Bulgar troops.
Nor IS it outside Of the range OF posi-
bility that, given a Russian oelecVioh'
Italy will make a separate peace or sue
cumb 70 An attack made by Austrian and
German troops released from the Carpa-
THAN and the Lithuanian fronts. Terms
such as Italy might be forced TO take
would easily be procured from Austria by
Germany, if she desired to buy on l'aly.
do not mean TO suggest that Italy would
betray her present allies, but 1t is posi-
bic that they might be unable to give her
the necessary aid 10 defend her frohtS
against an attack such as laid kumanis
In the dust last autumn.
Personally do not believe, judging from
such information as can gather, here ana
abroad, that either Russia or Italy VIII
make separate peace. Neither do be-
l'sye that there will be German revolu-
ton, nor that Germany will be starved
INTO surrender by the end of June or July
Recalling what the South endured IN the
LAT l..-- e A. ....Eole-.... - seems 10