The Washington herald., 1917-08-05

men. the total losses Germany must
expect to suffer by November 1918,
II she goes on with the war: to that
strength must be added $4,000 for
the class of 1920. The German armies.
then. will have declined approximate
ly s6S,0oo men, on November 1, 1915.
from their strength on the first of
last May.
Army VIII Have DwindIed.
This loss of strength will fall upon
the counbatant forces alone The L.
$4,000 old and unfit troops on duty
In the rear will remain as they were
The 100000 fighting men possessed
by Germany today will have dwindled
to 4,232,00 Add TO these the l,I3s, 900
+noncombatant troops and the figure of
5,971 900 men is attained, the total land
strength of. the German empire which
Is was said at the beginning of this
story would be in the fields at the
opening OF the third, or American,
phase of the war.
Now this is frankly an estimate
which must allow for a considera BILE
margin OF error. The figures OF the
number of divisions in the fields are
officially correct; the number OF Ger
man net casualties. accepting their
own lists, is known to be within a
small fraction; but the chance of err
ror comes In the calculation of re-
serve troops.
I have shown these figures, however,
to a high military authority who said,
II have gone over them carefully,
and l think you are safely within a
margin of error of fifteen per cent;
the only really incalcuable point at
which you had to guess was whether
the rate of casualties for the next
year and a half will be the same
as it has been in the past"
1t may be assumed that while the
American armies, during the year 1918,
will doubtless be able to take their
fair share of the fighting, they will
not be in sufficient numbers to DO
most of the work, as the British are
doing 1t now, until the end of the
year at least.
American Phase of War.
But at the beginning of the sixth
summer campaign of the war. in the
spring of 1919, there is no doubt that
the american phase" will have COM
menced in earnest. Neither the
French nor the British armies viii
then be in a position to carry out Of
fenslves on a large scale. They will
not have the men. America will have
them. The American troops and the
allies will be faced. in the spring of
1913, by 100000 German fighting men.
not counting the old and unfit in the
rear.
All this may sound very improbable.
that the war will not go on to the
bitter end. There is grave doubt
whether a campaign of 1918 will be
fought to a finish. whether the
American phase" of 1919 will ever
arrive. For the sake of the world It
is TO be devoutly hoped that 1t will
not.
But the point Is that Germany will
not surrender until she knows she is
beaten; and America must remember
that Germany will be able to keep
100000 men for the campaign of 1919.
Germany will not yield unless Amer
lea begins now and trains armies
capable of smashing these 1900, 900
men. Not all the ships and money in
the world will prevent this war from
dragging on to an inglorious draw
unless American soldiers, in sufficient
numbers. are prepared to deal the
finishing blow.
That is the moral of these calcula-
tions, and indeed 1t is the reason why
they are permitted publication.
A general view of the present war
resources of the central powers de-
nands a consideration of the forces
OF Germany's allies. as. well as Of
The fatherlJrd itself.
In addition to the 231 existing Ger
man. divisions. the Austrians have S5,
the EulgaIians 13 and the Turks.
nomlnallY, about ~. some of which
exist only upon the parchment scrolls
OF the Turkish war office.
The Wes, front is held entirely by
155 German divisions. These IRE d.
'iied almost equally between he Brit.
ish aud TIE French fronts. TIC lircs
opposite ,he British front a.e held
by the sIoup of armies ui;deI the
command OF Prince Rupprechs, of Ba-
varia, while the Gereman Crown
Prince commands the French sector.
These two army groups are now ap-
parently entirely independent; no rec
ord exists of a division having been
transferred from one to the other dur
ing the fighting his year.
Lnndwehrs Held Ont.
Each of these two main groups has
a reserve of about twenty divisions,
maintained in the rear for use in
case of emergency. Twenty-eight of
these divisions are not strictly fresh.
but have been reformed after being
broken in action at Arras and on the
Aisle. Twelve-six on the British and
six on the French front-are entirely
shipshape. and almost alone among
Germany's good troops have not been
put into action this year. Out of the
1855 divisions in France. all but 43
have been in battle on the Aisne. at
Arras or Messines. and % of them
have been engaged twice The average
losses before a division Is withdrawn
from an active sector are 1000 men.
OF the 43 divisions which have not
\ a