Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1917-07-15

was already a very obvious shortage OF
shipping. Every belligerent country,
and, for that matter, every neutral too,
| had to limit its imports and Its exports
on the severest possible scale of self
denial. To great extent, OF course.
| this was made necessary by the I'M
rial made upon the existing shipping.
Still. the fact remains that shipping
was short
Amount Of Tonnage Per Man.
II tho United States Of America is to
maintain an army Of 100000 men on
French soil. it is a conservative esti-
+, mate to suppose that each man will
need at minimum four tons Of ship
ping. and may need five. I don't know
what tonnage will be called for to take
over $4,000 aircraft, the proposed con-
tribution of raw material and the ex-
ira food which the people Of America
are to deny themselves for the sake of
their fellow fighters in Europe. But
clearly if the position in Europe is to
be improved by a larger number of
men, increased supplies of munitions, a
greater reserve of food and a more
numerous force for fighting in the air.
it is by shipping and by no other
means that these benefits are to accrue
to US.
American Intervention. then, calls for
more shipping, and, at the time of writ
ing. it is vanishing at a net rate Of at
least 100000 tons month. By Febru-
airy, 1918, the total stock of shipping
will be between thirty three and thir-
ty-four million tons; year later 1t will
be twenty-eight or twenty-nine mil
lion tons.
Allowing only 100000 tons for the
purely military requirements of the
United States. there will be available
for the general purposes of the allies,
therefore, 29.000.000 tons at the begin
ming of 1918 and 100000 a year later
Can the allies carry on the war when
their oversee supplies are limited to
this extent? This depends. of course,
to a great extent on the amount of
food that can be raised by the abnor-
NAL efforts of Great Britain and France
during this and next year. 1t depends
| too. upon improved methods Of un-
loading and loading ships so that each
vessel may do more journeys in given
time.
Limit on Consumption Necessary.
Finally. it depends upon the extent
to which the allied peoples in Europe
can limit their consumption of food
ether voluntarily or by the enforced
Fder OF the state. There are too many
unknown factors for it to be possible
to say exactly what is the minimum
shipping that will see us through
But 1t Is quite obvious that there
must be certain level that may be
called the vanishing point
1t is the object of the whole German
submarine campaign to bring the
worlds shipping to this point at the
earliest possible moment. 1t represents
the only hope the German high COM
| mand can entertain for avoiding final
| military defeat. 1t Is a certainty that
| If it becomes possible for Germany to
achieve this end the issues Of the war
Will have to be compromised That
| explains the enormous effort Great
Britain has been making since the
| spring of this year. and must continue
| to make. to force military decision
at the earliest possible moment
| The problem has been summed UP in
| England in the phrase. Can the army
| win the war before the navy loses it"
! 1t is a problem that concerns the
| United Ststea in exactly the same de-
gree as every other ally. If 1t is not
| solved by the allies the military de-
| feat of Germany will be impossible
America. as well as Europe. will have
| been defeated by the submarine. Her
vast preparations. her great sacrifices,
! the noble response Of her citizens, the
bright hopes of her soldiers. the splen-
did professional skill of her isailors,
the warlike spirit Of nation re-
luctantly stirred to action, but now
things will go for nothing. Is the
problem soluble?
| (Note-In the following article Mr.
| Pollen, tomorrow will deal with the
! palliatives. in which he will describe