New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-05-06
We Must Prepare to
Take Our Place in
Trenches in 1913
to Replace
Russia


Viewed as a military problem, the war
is advancing toward satisfactory solu-
ton with unmistakable regularity. Brit
ain has come into the field this year or
gained, her armies and her generals are
trained, her man-power is at its maxi.
mum, she outguns the Germans, and her
armies, unlike the French and the Ger.
man, are made up of young men, the best
Of her manhood. German armies are re-
treating and German hopes Of conquest
have long ago faded into the hope Of Q
drawn battle. The nation that hoped to
conquer Europe now hopes to last long
enough to escape destructive peace terms.
But it is not yet time to expect a Ger
man collapse, granted that the collapse
must ultimately come. When the war Is
over the cost to Germany in manhood will
be beyond that Of all other nations. She
spent huge numbers against France in the
first campaign and before Verdun; her
losses in her Russian campaigns were
very great, particularly in the first years.
At the Somme she suffered mainly at
British hands, while the French loss was
relatively small. To-day her great losses
are being made to the British, who are, In
turn, bearing the heaviest burden. To-
morrow Germany may expect to lose To
the American troops that are to come.
Germany Human Sacrifice
When the war is over the percentage Of
men killed and disabled in Germany win
vastly exceed that Of any of her foes. But
since the lines that she holds are relatively
short, she is still able to man them. She
had more than 100000 to start with.
Her own lists show q loss of more than
100000, which means a permanent loss|
of above 100000. Such figures as I can
get suggest that her loss has been much
greater, perhaps her permanent loss has
been 5000, 900. But 100000 are all that
are needed to hold her lines and give her
such reserves as she yet needs, however
greatly she may be outnumbered.
The military and political masters o.
Germany have decided that even the great
, human sacrifice, disproportionats to that
of all other nations fighting, shall be borne
by Germany rather than that they shall
have to concede defeat or give up stolen
territory. So far they have been able I'd
persuade their people TO stand by them;|
they have been able to do this because Of
the submarine and the Russian Revolu-
ton. We believe Germany Is beaten, but
we have no means OF convincing tho Ger1
man people. They believe that the Allied
must give over the battle before numbers
win it for them. Even though we refuse
to accept their logic, we must recognize
that they accept it and that their deter1
mination to continue rests upon just as
| firm ground, so far as their minds are conf
cerned, as does our determination for US.
In sum, the present indications all point
to campaign of 1918. Despite GermarI
shortage of food, it now seems likely thai
/ Germany will weather the crisis Of Jun(
and July and survive until the new crop bel
gins to come in. This means that there will
, be no surrender due to famine this year.
On the military side there is no present
promise of a German collapse before SNOW
I flies, despite the steady progress Of Britis
armies and the unmistakable superiority
of the British over the Germans in mate
rial and men. Further German retreat
are assured, but there is no present indi
cation that these retreats will bring thu
Allies much beyond the Belgian frontie t
or within striking distance Of Aix-la-Cha
pelle and the lower Rhine.
We Must Prepare for 1918
A complete Russian collapse would,
followed by separate peace, make it in
evitable that the United States shout
send vast armies to Europe, and tn
French and British armies would have {
play the role of the French army fror
the Marine to the Somme; they would hav
to hold up Austro-German numbers unit |
the new ally was organized and on III
field. A Russian attack, on the other hand
unlikely as it now seems, might end tn
war this year. SO might an Anglo-Amcr
: can demonstration of success in feedin
Britain and disposing Of the submarine.
But, laying aside all those clement
which represent the chances, and lookin
at the situation purely from the militar
point Of view, il seems TO me that &c
many has the men, the guns and, so ID
as it is now safe to calculate, the will {
carry on for the present year and to beg4
the campaign of 1918. 1t is for this can
paign that the British were preparinI
when was in London. II is for this can
paign that the United States must Or
pare; for the Russian situation remains
confused that for many months il may 4
at least possible that there will be a Ru
sian detection, and therefore break in .
Allied line, that can be filled for offensiJ
Operations only by American srmieA