The Washington herald., 1917-06-03
By JOHN l. BALDERsToN


France, Russia, and Italy Is not sufn-
bent to defeat the enemy or even to
AXE from him all Of his gains and re-
stablish the balance of power as 1t ex-
sted in 1914 Whether the war Is to
e won, or is to end in a draw and
ritual German victory. Is problem the
nswer to which must be sought IN the
nited States.
All this is privately admitted IN high
aarters After all the bloody sacrifices,
be boastings and the claims that have
ZEN INDUCED in durina the last three
ears, these things cannot be openly
lated to the peoples OF the entente by
heir statesmen. But they ought to be
nown to Americans. When American
fficials utter solemn warnings to the
|ublic, they are not indulging in ora
Dry exaggerated for the purpose II en-
ouraging recruiting or arousing public
ointment; they are telling the sober
ruth. or Fart Of II, as communicated by
he representatives OF the allies.
The writer cannot be accused OF sud
enly taking up pessimistic attitude to
Increase the war efforts of his country
men For more than two years I have
Presented in these dispatches a 1is:.as-
donate view OF the war situation, dis
founting the claims Of both sides and
epeatedly stating the impossibility OF a
military victory either for Germany or
he entente unless some new factors en-
ered into the situation.
Two New Factors.
Two new factors have appeared, the
ubmarine anarchy and the belligerency
bf the United States.
The submarine is biting deep tnto the
economic life of the world; It presents
fGermany with a chance, not apparent be-
fore, to win the war outright and die
#aF "a - - =
fnies even more ruthless than those which
wers to have been enforced after the cap
ture OF Paris In September, 1914
The United States is a potential force;
not, like the submarine, an actual power
at the preesnt moment. II the United
States did nothing. Germany would win
the war. II the United States supplied
money, and some ships and some food.
the war might end in a draw, America
effort neutralizing the submarine and re-
storing the deadlock as II existed before
last February IT, and only IL, the United
States puts everything into the fight with
all possible speed. her Intervention will
outweigh the submarine in-the balance
and win the war. But dispatches from
America show very clearly that the Amer
lean people do not yet realize what is
In front Of them.
1t Is only be visuaIizing the world sit
uation as a whole, examined in the light
Of reason and not in the rosy hues OF
patriotism of sentiment, that the nature
of the task can be made clear. To do
this the investigator must know some
thing about the military resources Of the
two alliances, how many troops they have
IN the field and what reserves are back
fng up the combatants; and ne must
know as we'll the figures OF lost tonnage,
the rate az which ships sunk are being
REPLACED, and the facts about the food
prospects.
Truths Well Known.
Then. by Co-relating the factors mill
tary. eCOEOnic and naval. and not for
getting the moral factors, he can form
some judgment as to the prospects of
the war. The writer is not in the con-
hdence of any high commands, but the
broad truths about the armies, the sub
marines. and the food shortage are we'll
known in informed circles, even though
they cannot be discussed in the PRESS.
In a newspaper dispatch generalizations
can be made. but the act upon which
they are based cannot be put forward.
I can only say that all Lne statements
In this story rest upon what I believe
TO be accurate Information.
The most important question for
Americans at present is the length OF the
war, because upon this point depends the
question OF effective American co-opera-
the German armies can be beaten in the
field In decisive fashion within two
years. This is an opinion widespread
among military men, to which almost
any man conversant with the approxi-
mate field strength of both alliances
would heartily subscribe. |
To say this is not to say that the war
will last two years. II the United States
will promptly raise and equip an army of
millions It will be possible TO put great
numbers Of troops on the western front
next spring and summer, and to have an
army in Europe at the beginning of the
sixth campaigning season In 1919, capable
OF winning the war. This being true the
Germans may capitulate before that time;
but they will only do so II convinced that
america is willing and able to strike the
final blow.
Must Eliminate U-Boat.
On the other hand, the entente cannot
last through the two years which may be
necessary to destroy the German armies
unless the submarine peril is effectively
countered; and this. too. must be the work
of America The best authorities are very
skeptical about the possibilities Of deal
ing with this menace by any other means
than grimly continuing to build ships to
replace those that are sunk The present
building capacity of allied Europe, and
TO accomplish this task.
Either active measures against the SUBJ
marines, or against the base5 from which
they operate, must be carried out, or the
Ehipbuilding capacity Of the world must
be increased far beyond anything hither-
to dreamed Of. II Is unsafe to count upon
the success OF coUnter-submarine work,
though here, too, the United States win
he able to help. What must be done
is to build more ships, and America must
shoulder the lions share OF this work
There are not In Great Britain either ma
terial or labor to increase beyond q GER
tain percentage the output OF tonnage.
And that percentage in the light OF the
sinkings now going on is not enough.
But in the United States there are ma
terial and labor enough to build more
ships than the Germans can possibly
sink IN the two years for which Hinden-
burg can count upon maintaining his mil I
itarJ resistance.
The question Of money Is equally vital
Germany and her allies are self-contained
and the little purchasing they are able to
do In adjoining neutral countries is car
ried out on a gold basis. But within
their own borders, their paper Is good
so long as their well-disciplined and pa
triotic peoples win accept It: their diffi-
entities during the cantar around