The Ely miner. [volume] (Ely, Minn.) 1895-1986, 1917-02-16
BERLIN BELIEVES
U. S. WAR CERTAIN.
Small Hope There That Overt Act
Can Be Long Avoided.
U-B0AT POLICY UNCHANGED
Commanders of Submarines Given
Wide Discretionary Powers-First
Uncensored Dispatches Tell of
Development of the Crisis.


Development of the Crisis.
Copenhagen, Feb. 1S.-Little hope or
expectation prevails in Berlin that
war with the United States is avoid
able or that a modus vivendi reconcil-
ing the policies of the two governments
can be found.
There now is desire on the part of
the authorities and a vast bulk of the
people to avoid actual hostility IT. any
way consistent with the general lines
of the present submarine policy, but
only in such way.
Accordingly, instructions were given
so the Associated Press has been re-
liably informed, to submarine COM
manders before they started on their
February mission, to take the safe side
when neutral vessels, particularly
American, were in question, whenever
possible. Enemy merchantmen, when
recognized as such, were ordered to be
sunk on sight, but neutral merchant
men were to be warned when such ac-
ton, in their judgment, was consistent
with the object of the campaign and
the safety of their own ships.
Ultimate Break Certain.
1t was realized, however, after the
prompt and resOlute stand taken by
President Wilson that these orders
could only be palliative and only defer,
not avoid, an ultimate break. Also,
that if President Wilson stood by his
announcement that the destruction of
American lives or ships would be re-
garded as an act of hostility, casus
belli must come sooner or later-prOb-
ably soOner-On account of the number
of Americans on enemy ships.
Moreover, it was the discretionary
nature of the instructions to submarine
commanders, who were informed that
| while the careful course toward neu-
trails was recommended and desired,
they would no longer be subjected TO
punishment for departing from their
former procedure of warning, if they
found this advisable.
Not to Modify Plans.
It is considered that the only pos
sibility Of the avoidance of hOstilities
would result from a modification of
it's standpoint by one or the other side,
and SO far as could be judged from the
positive declarations of Alfred Tim
mermann, the German minister of for
eign affairs, and other officials before
the Associated Press correspondents
departure from Berlin, there was no
probability that Germany would give
way this time or abandon the ruth
less campaign now started.
German-American relations again
and again have passed through crises
apparently almost hopeless, but this
time the crisis is more difficult than
the former ones, and even the Optimist
can scarcely see any peaceful egress
out Of the impasse.
Development of Crisis.
From a neutral cable Office it now is
possible to tell the story of the devel-
opment of the present crisis on which
the most rigid censorship has been ap-
pt1ed In Germany.
To the observer in Berlin the ap-
proach of the crisis had been plainly
and definitely evident since the rejec-
ton of Germany's peace Overtures. In
formation as to Germany's submarine
war and the form it would take was
received by the Associated Press al
most on the day of Ambassador Ge-
rard's speech on German-American
good relations.
A week later it was stated that a
full decision on the situation had not
been reached, but that the campaign
would not be launched until after fur
Their consultation with Germany's al
lies and the receipt of certain infOr-
nation from Count Won Bernstorff.
The final decision on an out-and-out
submarine campaign of so-called
ruthless type apparently was taken at
the grand Austro-German conference
at German headquarters on the Ger
man emperor's birthday, though the
Associated Press heard the statement
that submarines departing several
days earlier for their stations were
provided with contingent orders for
this eventuality.
Censor Clamps on Lid.
The censorship, however, shut
down tightly on any definite state
ments or predictions of the approach
ing crisis. All dispatches going into
the subject in detail, however, were
either suppressed entirely or refer
ences to coming events censored out Of
them. ss.,'.
Ambassador Gerard, of course, was
aware of the current gossip and prob
ably was able to advise the state de-
partment of the possible turn in events.
But he was given no intimation from
official sources.
The ambassador and the American
government therefore were faced with
the announcement of an accomplished
fact when on the afternoon of Janu-
airy 81 Doctor Won BethnAann- Hollweg,
the imperial chancellor, gave out the
news that a relentless submarine cam
paign would begin Immediately and
read to the committee the text of the
memorandum on the prohibited zone
and the note to the United States
documents which reached the Ameri-
can embassy only several hours later.
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