Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1917-08-05

ted out in their relation to the pur-
| pounding as the last. and her western
| foes. with the help Of the United
States, have the men. Before the year
| Is over 1 am satisfied the British will
give Us new and convincing evidence
OF the real situation.
AS to guns. the Germans have been
outgunned in the west for more than
| a year. Their own official reports have
again and again conceded this. Fewer
guns mean greater casualties, and II
this condition persists-as 1t must-it
! means the gradual breakdown of
/ man 900 at the Somme.
$4,000 at the Aisne. $4,000 at Arras
and Ypres and 1900 at Verdun. 10000
In four battles. together with more
than 500 guns.
On the material side it is exceedingly
| unlikely that Germany can be starved
out but another year will bring greater
hardships. greater suffering. and a
failure of crops would mean ruin. Ger
many has suffered for two years more
than Britain or France is yet suffering,
or will suffer for a year. and the moral
effect is increasing all the time 1t will
weigh.
Wiping Out Her Commerce.
Looking to the commercial side, tho
fact is this: Every month the war goes
on Germany loses more of her CONNER
cial establishment. She is barred from
British colonies and Great Britain for
years. I remember the Right Hon.
william NJ Hughes, prime minister
Of Australia. explained to me two years
ago how German commercial influence
and particularly German control Of the
metal industries, had been routed out
fortified: The same thing has taken
place all over the empire. 1t has taken
place in France and in Italy. 1t is
beginning to take place in the United
has happened I'm the far east. where
Japan is the gamer: in South America,
where we and the British profit.
Each month the war goes on the
German agents and German goods
marked made In Germany" will have
in Belgium after the war; in France:
in Great Britain. after the Zeppelin
hatred of Germany Is far more intense
than in Britain.
May Lose o. s. Trade.
The German shipping and manufactur-
ing interests are keenly aware of all
this. Even the permanent possession
of the archaeological empire would
De no Immediate counterpoise to the loss
of the entente markets and the CLOSING
OF the entente world to German prod
ucts after the war. war prolonged
until the United States, having lost
thousands OF lives. was permanently
and the American market closed by
tarins. would be fatal to German ship
ping and commerce. however successful
in permitting Germany to occupy Serbia
and dominate Asia Minor
The war has added nearly $1s,000,-
100000 to the German debt, and Ger
| many had no such accumulation of
capital as Great Britain. France or the
another year 1t will take a toll Of the
wealth producing population far
greater than that of any other nation
Today Britain's casualties are not a
third OF the German. and casualties
mean the loss of the best Of the pro-
ductive element in the population.
In my judgment, Germany cannot,
for these reasons, carry the war on
until November l. 1915 1 do not be-
lieve that she will attempt to do il
If the United States sends half a mil
lion troops to the western front before
July l. 1918 The recent German poIiti-
cal crisis was largely fictitious, but 1t
did serve to disclose a real undercur-
rent of unrest. a growing realization
that victory was impossible.
Never Again to Be Equal.
The Russian collapse has enabled
those in control of German affairs to
persuade their people that victory is
possible. 1t has given them one more
chance to endeavor to break the nerves
OF their opponents. But 1t has rot
given Germany numerical superiority
or even numerical equality-this sne
can never have again unless one of the
western allies succumbs, and of this I
| see no prospect
In my judgment. we shall see an
other heavy British blow this year
perhaps two. We shall have one more
clear demonstration of the superiority
now possessed by the British over the
, Germans in every detail of modern
warfare. But l do not think there will
| be another French offensive until the
American army is ready to take a
/ hand.
AS to German offensive in the west.
| the defeat of the recent effort of the
crown prince on the Chemin-des- Danes
las expensive as the later phase Of
Verdun-demonstrate the folly and
futility Of such tactics. AS for an at
| tack upon the British-that is, a real
Iattack-it seems to me out of the cues
| ton.
| On the other hand. II the Russian
| breakdown increases-as il may-we
shall not improbably see Germany
seek. by spending some of her precious
reserves. to create an atmosphere, as
she did in the case of Rumania last
year. and use this an aid to another
peace campaign, like that of last year
but peace campaign intended to
leave her with some profits as a result
of the great cost in blood and treasure
! of the war
Like Civil War Days.
i In all these articles have endeayored
to confine myself to military phases.
| But today, when a deliberate and pur-
poseful campaign Is being made in this
country to create the impression that
Germany has won the war and peace
should be made at once to escape the
cost to the United States Of continuing
the struggle, ! feel that I should am