The Oakes times. [volume] (Oakes, N.D.) 1906-current, 1917-01-25
THE FUTURE OF
AUTO INDUSTRY
ovERPRoDUcTIoN is NOT PROB.
ABLE FOR YEARS TO COME
The Cause and Effect of Increased
Manufacturing Cost in the
Automobile Industry

NuSOHIOUiIS INDUSTRY
So much has been written relative to
the development of the motor car in
dustry and so many phophecies have
been ventured without proper consid-
GRAFTON of vital and controlling factors
that clear and simple analysis of the
subject may serve to dissipate much
of the unfounded conjecture.
The automobile market is divided
into two broad fields. First the rural
class. which includes all persons en-
gagged in farming and others in various
businesses who live in towns of less
than five hundred population. Second,
the urban class. which comprises all
people in any but farming pursuits,
who live in towns of five hundred or
more population.
In the rural or farming market, there
are 6,500,000 families. One million of
these now own motor cars and one
and one-half millions are poor, litter
ate, or negroes, who for the purpose of
this study may be excluded from the
prospective buying class. There re-
main. then 100000 farm families who
are possible automobile buyers.
In the urban class, covered by 11,O0O
towns and cities of more than five hun
dred population, there are about
100000 home owners of which num-
ber only 100000 now own cars. Ac-
cordingly, there remains 100000 pro-
spective buyers in the class, or total
actual unsold market, in both rural
and urban classes, of 100000 possible
automobile buyers.
The accepted average life of an auto
mobile is about five years in the hands
of the original owners; and as the man
who once owns car will not there
after be without one, we must include
the recorder market which in the
calendar year of 1917 will be about
100000. this being twenty per cent of
the 100000 now in use.
For the year 1917. therefore. the
aItoalobile business will face ma. Ael
of about 100000 possible excess mar
ket of 100000 buyers at the begin
ming of 1918.
These figures are decidedly conser-
vative because they take no consider
alton of 1) any export outlet, t2) the
people who have or will have two or
more machines. (3) increased popula-
tion, (4) increased prosperity, (5) a
million or more town and city families
who do not own the homes in which
they live, but are we'll able to buy and
maintain motor car, (6) the business
houses, retail and wholesale merchants
who use thousands of roadsters for
statesmen, and many thousands more
of delivery cars Irregular automobile
chassis with commercial body), (7)
taxicabs and other cars for public hire
An Important Fact
An important and noteworthy fact
is vouched for by the editorial depart.
ment of Automobile Topics we'll
known, trade authority, which has
been making careful analysis of the
comparative nature of automobile SER
vice. They state that of the 100000
motor cars of all kinds in service in
the United States today, they can
conservatively say from their investi-
cation that over one-half CT the mile
age of the 100000 cars is used for
business purposes. Literally, this
means that of the 100000 automo-
biles running in this country today,
one-half, or 100000, are used for
business purposes. This leaves only
one and half million in use for
pleasure or social transportation pur-
poses.
In considering the 100000 automo-
biles in use today, which may legiti-
mately be classed as pleasure cars"
an important fact should be borne in
mind. namely: the so-called pleasure
car OF today has a distinct economic
use, 1t being only reasonable to de-
duce that the time and money spent
IN motoring for pleasure or social in
tercourse almost invariably takes the
place OF some other form of eXpendi-
ture OF less actual economic value
Motoring is a pleasure that makes for
broader vision, saner and more help
ful diversions, and more sympathet-
ic social life. A nation without it's
sane pleasures is hopeless. There
fore, it is far from logical to consider
the so-called pleasure car of today as
an added luxury.
If production increases at the av-
erage rate maintained for the past
five years-which is unlikely, due to
greater manufacturing problems and
to inability of the selling and distrib-
utive branches to keep pace with
greatly augmented manufacturing vol
ume-the point of saturation will not
be reached for five, six or even seven
years. And some of the leaders in
the industry predict that it will be a
matter of ten or twelve years.
All signs point to continued de-
velopment for several years to come
for just how long it is difficult to
SAY, but as in many other new fields,