Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1917-12-16

States can put a million OF men on
sion for maintaining this number
The conviction that tho war will go at
least five years rests upon the change In
the situation resulting from the complete
disappearance of Russia from the battle
line. Allied victory in four years was
conditioned upon the mutual EFFORTS OF
France, Britain, Russia and Italy. all
operating at full power against the cen
trail powers. There vas a remote POSI-
bility that a decision in favor OF the al
lies might have been foreshadowed in the
military events of 1917 had Russia main
tanned this year the pace she set last
wear. There WAS a possibility OF de-
tision next year as long as RUSSIAN
armies were able and willing 10 moro
their place and thus retain German anu
Austrian forces before them. But now
Russia has disappeared, Rumania must
disappear, and the. war becomes a con-
test between two groups OF powers,
comparatively equal IN numbers. anu
will remain so until the United STATES
ing sufficient numbers to give her allies
the numerical superiority permanently.
First Effect of Russian Collapse.
The first effect of the Russian defec-
ton must be recognized in the events
which have taken place In northern itaiy
and in northern France. The Russian
collapse has provided Germany Wl.n IT, q
strategic reserve which has been lack
ing to her ever since her failure before
Verdun. This strategic reserve has en-
abled her to take the offensive In ltaiy
and to carry on counter offensive De
fore Cambrai-both of them more con-
siderable offensive efforts than have been
made by the Germans in nearly two
years.
In my Judgment. the allies may be
compelled to stand on the defensive
throughout the whole of next year,
while every sign points to renewal
Of the German effort to achieve de-
cision in advance Of the arrival OF the
main masses OF the United States
armies. German policy is clear. Al
the beginning OF the war Germany at
tackled France In the hope of destroy
ing France before either England or
Russia could come to the assistance OF
skill with which French armies were
handled and the devotion with which
the French soldier fought. Thereafter
Germany turned her attention to Hus-
sia, seeking to dispose OF RUSSIA pc
fore France and England could come
to Russia's assistance. This Germany
did accomplish, breaking down the
Russian national existence and elm
mating Russia as a factor IN the war
by the great campaign whicn began a.
the Dunajec and ended at wilma IN me
summer of 1915. In the winter of 1919
Germany turned to France again and
sought to dispose of her before britain
could arrive Again she failed in TINS.
To-day with Austrian help. she has I'M
dertaken to crush Italy with the troops
which have been released from Inc
eastern front.
German Purpose Defined.
II is necessary to understand the Ger
man purpose Ludendorff expressed 1t
very clearly the other day when he
said that in modern war-tnat Is. IN
contest between whole peoples mill
tary decision on the battlefield Is I'M
likely. The real victory is attained by
the wearing out of the will and the
spirit of the weaker nation by the
stronger. This has happened in Russia.
This the Germans hope will happen in
Italy.
Now. we have to consider the posi-
bility that the Germans Will pause In
their attack upon Italy at the moment
when they have forced the Italians
back upon the Adige. if this time comes.
They may hope and expect that such
defeat will break the spirit of Italy,
and that the disintegration within the
savoy monarchy will follow the lines of
the disintegration in the Romanon en-
pire. and that domestic revolution and
disorder will bring Italy to separate
peace. as they have brought Russia.
In such a case it is certain that the
next German operation will be directed
against the French. France has borne
the greatest burden of the war. French
man-power has suffered more than that
as much in proportion to French popu-
latfon as Germany. There is an unmis-
taxable war-weariness in France, and
the Germans seem to be planning and
follow the termination of their italian
The purpose of this attack
will be to dispose Of the French before
the United States can bring its troops
up. Such an attack would have been
had Russia held it's lines be-
cause Germany possessed no reserves
sufficient for such a task. She did not
even possess the reserves necessary for
the Italian adventure until the collapse
of the Russians brought an end to all
danger on the eastern front
Big Drive on France This Winter.
In the course of the present year
Germany has captured an enormous
amount of war material from the Rus
SLAMS and an equally vast amount from
the Italians. She has added greatly
to her stocks of munitions and of guns.
All these resources will enable her to
make a desperate final drive against
France this winter or next spring,
Wntle the AuStIian troops VIII SuHlce TO
hold the gains in Italy, to check Sar-
rails army in the Balkans and probably
to supply certain Austrian, German
and Hungarian divisions of picked
troops for the western campaign.
The population of France. Italy and
Great Britain, including the British
white colonies. Is about equal to that
of the central powers. without Turkey, !
while the native troops of British and |
French colonies about Offset Turkish |
numbers. But the Italians can use only |
a minor percentage of their numbers on |,
their present front, and are unlikely;
now to consent to the transfer of Ital- |
ian troops to France. while the French !
and the British are handicapped by the |
necessity of sending many of their |
troops to save Italy.
All things considered, it seems to me |
certain that the next campaign will see |
Germany on the offensive on the west |
ern front, where all military authori- |
ties, German and allied alike agree the
war will be won and lost. British num-
bers have not yet begun to decline alb
The British will be able to |
hold their own front and to take over
a portion Of the burden Of meeting the |
German attack upon the French. but |
they will not be able, in my Judgment |
to carry on any considerable operation |
like the Somme, owing to the pressure :