Evening star., 1917-11-04
DISASTER IN ITALY IS LIKENED
TO RUSSIAN DUNAJEC COLLAPSE; 4
ITS CHIEF VALUE IS POLITICAL

many will ultimately lose the war on
the western front. and the necessity OF
her sending troops and guns to the
Italian front which might be used ef-
fectively on the western front indicates
how grave was Austria's situation and
how imminent was the peril of Aus.
trian collapse.
Petain's Victory Important.
French at the Aisne. we see an example
OF the perfect, though local, success.
Attacking with the purpose OF carrying
certain German positions. but with no
thought OF piercing the German lines.
Petain has won a victory of consider
, able proportion. He has thrust a wedge
between the st. Gobsfn plateau and the
Aillette river which carries an eventual
menace to the German hold on Laon
and an immediate peril to the few
German positions remaining south of
the Atllette river. He has taken more
than 1000 prisoners and 100 guns. and
less than $4,000 German troops. Five
or six German divisions will have to be
reorganized before they can appear on
the battle line again.
taken in conjunction with the French
and British operations about Ypres, this
French attack on the Aisne is one more
blow to front which is already wav-
er1ng. 1t is one more step toward the
compel the Germans to make general
retirement from the North sea to the
Meuse or risk grave disaster.
We have had in recent days the testi-
mony or Germany military leaders that
local retirements between Dixmude and
the Lys river and about Laon are likely,
with the usual German assurance that
these rettrements will not have any
m fIa L.
Yet 1t is plain to see from the map that
any considerable retirement from be-
fore Ypres any retirement from about
Laon, VIII necessitate withdrawal
immediate withdrawal. since the
weather Is getting bad. but an eventual
| retirement behind the Scheldt and the
Meuse. and the surrender of the Bel
gian seacoast and most of the French
territory still held by the Germans
May Check Allied Offensive.
1t is far from unlikely that the Ger.
mans will mask necessary retirements
| in France and Belgium now behind
their great success in Italy. It is un-
mistakably their hope that the plight
over their own offensive and transfer
troops and guns to the Italian front.
The transfer of troops seems unueces-
sary, FOR beyond question Italian man
| power outnumbers the Austrian and
| is beyond any necessities for the hold
| ing OF the relatively short Italian
front. But man power Is not impor-
tant In comparison with gun power.
and II the allies are compelled to send
| to Italy considerable portion of the
artillery that is hammering away ev-
erywhere in Flanders and Champagne.
| then the allied offensive will unQues-
tionably come to stop and the Ger
mans. in addition to saving Austria
| and defeating Italy. Will. by their
! Italian offensive. have compelled an
abandonment by the allies OF an attack
which was approaching a real success.
1t would seem that the true answer
of the allies to German strategy now
would be a renewal of attack on their
own front. But the political con-
| tingencies will necessarily weigh. The
possibility that Italy unaided will be
| f1rst crushed and then. through do
mestic crises. led to make a separate
peace. VIII count heavily with the al
! lies. and we must reckon on the pos
sibility that the great allied offensive
| campaign in the west will have to be
abandoned for the year. and the best
allied efforts devoted not to driving
| German armies out Of Belgium and
France, but to preventing their deeper
| invasion of Italy.
| A year ago the German victory over
Rumania, which had almost no mill
i tary Importance SO far as the main
field of the war was concerned, had a
| world. 1t was made the basis by the
Germans of a peace offensive design
| ed to take advantage OF the war
| weariness OF the peoples allied against
Germany and to obtain for Germany
! in negotiated peace many great
profits from her proven triumphs. I'm
questionably the Italian disaster VIII
be used for the same purpose. 1t VIII
be an admirable basis for arguing that
Germany is unconquerable and that
peace by negotiation is inevitable.
Had to Succor Austria.
All that have said to my readers
lbout the approaching defeat of Ger
many through exhaustion-a defeat
almost inevitable IL there Is a cam.
paign of 191S-seems to me still ac-
curate. The Germans have won q
great victory with a small number OF
troops, and this small mum Der of troops
could be gathered together only by
-isking defeats on their western line. OF
which they have suffered several In
-ecent days. Such an excursion was
justihable only IL it was inevitable.
4 was inevitable because of the Aus
srian situation. In 1914 the Germans
had to give over their attack upon
France and England just as 1t was
bout to promise very great Vfctory
because. Russia had almost brought
Austria to her knees. In 1917 the Ger
fighting on the defensive in order TO
save Austria-this time from the
Italians The price of this is shown In
petains victory at the Aisne and the
Anglo French successes between the
User and the Lys. But the German
gamble has been crowned with q
eally great victory, whose moral ef-
'ects cannot be exaggerated. ana
whose military effects may be very
serious indeed so far as Italy is con-
,erned Yet one should not mistake the
act that the main enemies of Germany
are France and Great Britain. ana
that we are rapidly assuming the posi-
.ion where we can supply the gradual
falling of French numbers. while the
material resources of the British em-
pire and the French and American re-
pubItcs far surpass anything the cen"
trail powers can muster. In the larger
sense il is a gain in the war OF attri"
ton If considerable numbers OF Ger.
man troops have to be sent against
Italy, and Germany, in addition to ios-
ing great numbers to the French ana
to the British. must also pay the price
in blood for Italian successes. II her
successes end by arousing the spirit OF
the Italian people, as Napoleon's early
success aroused the spirit OF the peo-
Pile of the Spanish peninsula, the ultl-
mate gain VIII be to the allies. al
though Germany will unmistakably
have temporarily averted the collapse