New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-05-27
Crisis for Allies at
End of Year When
Germany Seeks
To Detach
Russia
Copyright lsI7-The Tribune Associations

and Turkish detection has abolished the
Mitteleuropa peril. For while this res
mains a possibility it seems TO me any
discussion of peace is impossible, since sny
peace preserving this Central European
Empire would be but truce and sham
Germany means to fight now because
she thinks she can gain new territory and
obtain indemnities. Her population u
prepared to fight on for the present II
this hope. But it is plain that the will ID
fight will not endure beyond fixed point
in time and sacrifice. Will the people q
the Allied nations have the German resos
luton, when their turn comes to face tho
question Of peace without annexation and
without indemnity? This seems to me 70
be the great question Of the future, and
II believe that Americas course in the
next few months will decide the questions
in no small degree for the Allies.
If the United States has begun to send
troops to Europe in considerable numbersu
| il American naval support has materially
aided the Allies in moderating the SUBJ
marine menace, then it seems to me thaS
there is q sound basis for believing thal
the Allies will go forward until the wrongs
of 1871 and of the Austro-Italian settles
ment are righted. Then, and only then,
there will be prospect of the indemnifis
cation by Germany of both Belgium and
France for the most cruel and wanton
destruction in two centuries.
| Russia's Rsnuncia6on
| Meantime no one should mistake the
change in the situation. Russia has re-
nounced conquests, and this has removed
the larger number Of questions that stood
ir the way of peace by negotiation. Aus.
tria has indicated similar state Of mind,
and there Is sound reason for believing
that the Austrian desire for peacs may
steadily grow and as It grows open an
ever widening chasm between Vienaa and
Berlin. Turkey, through the Russian dee
cision, has escaped from peril of destrucs
ton, and Rumanian hopes have been
dashed Aside from the Polish question
there is now no really great barrier in tho
way of peace without annexation or ins
demnity so far as Russia, Austria and
Turkey are concerned. An equitable an
rangement between Rumania and Bulgaria
and between Serbia and Bulgaria is easily
attainable.
Russia has then destroyed the Allied
plan to demclish Austria Hungary, and
the liberation of the Slav and Latin popus
lations becomes only remotely possible, uns
less Russia reenters the war with the old
programme. 1t will be advantageous To
the Allies, this new situation, even with
the defeat of their Austrian plans, if il
leads to an escape of Austria from Gers
man leading-strings. 1t will be perilouu
for Germany just so long as the Germans
risk new Russian attack by a refusal To
accept the Russian formula.
But If Germany finds herself still far
from decisive victory next winter and
adopts the Russian programme, then she
will have the support of all her allies and
will, by accepting the Russian formula,
threaten to break the solidarity of the
ranks against her. So long as she purs
sues policy Of aggrandizement she win
have to endure the opposition Of certaip
elements at home, an opposition which win
increase or diminish as she wins or loses In
Der campaigns. When she changes hee
ground she will be aided by the elements
among her enemies which favor peace
without annexation as a moral doctrine.
An Exhaustion of Germany
All things considered, however, it seems
to me necessary to recognize that Russie
has proposed new doctrine which Is des.
tined to have great and growing impor.
lance in the European situation. It will
rot be Of decisive influence while Germany
still believes she can win some booty ID
land or treasure; it will have great infiu.
ence, when the time comes. as believe 4
! presently will, in which Germany recog.
nizes that her greatest possible profit from
the war can be draw and the Allies have
to decide whether they will endure still
greater burdens to realize their aim to re-
imburse Belgium and France and to n,
oSofe 'hc iose Pfo'ihSes VI INC AtShans anO
the French. We shall come to this prob
lem in December, at the latest, 1t seems To
me, and as / said moment ago, the real
decision may be based upon the extent 70
which America has begun to throw her
force to the support Of the French. II
the Allies decline the German adaptation
Of the Russian formula and insist upon the
restoration of Alsace-Lorraine and the
Trentino with Trieste, we shall probably
have another year Of war and an exhaus.
ton Of Germany, which will mean repe.
tition Of the conditions in Germany that
existed at the close of the Thirty Yeart
War.