The Washington herald., 1917-01-28
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warning to neutral nations-what Tir-
PITTS plan was and he asked me his now
famous question, What will America
think" etc, have kept In close touch
with the submarine situation and its de-
velopments-
Through "sub" Crises.
have been through all the various
phases of the submarine crises. l ave
been through all the crises between the
German people and their government over
this question / personally know nearly
all the leaders in both camps and have
discussed the question many hours with
them. The government always has re-
sisted the popular clamor and pressure
created by the ruthless party. and re-
sisted successfully. 1t will do so again,
notwithstanding alarming reports that
may come by cable and wireless.
Germany is not planning a ruthless sub
marine campaign. as the word is under
stood here. And by Germany, 1 mean
the present German government, which as
long as the big four" are agreed, can
not be plunged. Germany Is not dream
ing of Intentionally and deliberately Gre
ating a situation that makes a break with
the United States inevitable. Had an i'm
pulsive and an aroused public opin on in
this country had its way immed. ately
after the Lusitania incident. there would
have been war between the United States
and Germany. Had German public clamor
been able to enforce its demands when
the situation was acute, there would have
been a break between the two countries
lin all probability, war. In both in
stances a few men on either side OF the
Atlantic were wiser and calmer than
many.
Goyernpent a Unit.
With Tirpitz entirely eliminated and
Falkenhayn succeeded as chief of the
great general staff by Hindenburg and
with Minister OF Marine Capene and
Chief Of the Admiralty STAFF Admiral Won
Holtzendorff subservient in the matter of
foreign policy to the chancellor, the Ger
man government became a unit on one
question.
That question is: DO we or do we not
want a break tn America"
Their own an5wer was: I'VE do not
want any more avoidabIe enemies, less,
OF AL America"
Ge-manys policy has been predIcated
upon that. When the imperial chancel-
Ior, DR.. Won Bethmann- Hollweg, said to
me in February of last year, I'VE are
willing to concede anything but national
humiliation" he voiced that policy. 1
ing of the peace moves OF President
Wilson and Germany Is likely to change
that policy in the immediate future.
In time Of war crises come quickly and
any day may bring surprises, but to all
outward appearances, Bethmann-Hollweg,
since Hindenburg became chief of the
general staf, never was more solid in
the saddle than he is today. On his birth
day recently the Kaiser not only sent the
chancellor the usual felicitations, but also
q private letter assuring Bethmann-Holl-
veg in the most convincing language of
his unshaken confidence in him person
ally and in his policy, according to per-
sons close to Bethman, declaring that
never will 1 consent in letting you 60"
About the same time the Reichstag
delegation Of the powerful Catholic Cen
trist party, adopted a resolution that they
would oppose any change Of chancellor
during the war.
Socialist support Sure.
On anything and everything that the
chancellor does to avert war with the
United States, the Socialist party in
the Reichstag, 1O9 strong, solidly sup
ports him. And this includes the seven
teen seeding radicals. The very power
full Catholic Centrist party. the second
party in the Reichstag, with the excep-
ton OF a few hre-eaters who train with
the ''Junkers'' in the submarine question,
is almost a unit for the chancellor and
his policy.
The liberal wing of the National
Liberals, including Baron Won Richthofen,
stands by the chancellor in his opposi-
tion to ruthless summarizing. The radical
National Liberals, under Bassermann and
Streseman, representing the big Indus
tries. yell louder for the ruthless cam
paign than even the "Junkers." The
Progressive party and the Free
Thought" party. both stand solidly with
Bethnann- Hollwe2 AS long as the
Centrists under Matthias Erzberger, a
man who has worked his way up from
country school teacher to being one OF
the most influential political leaders in
Germany. does not desert the chancellor,
he cannot be shaken.
And even should Bethmann- Hollweg
lose his big majority in the Reichstag,
for which there is no near prospect un-
less some sudden disaster should precipi-
tate such a crisis, Germany will not de-
part from its present course of doing
-erything possible to avoid trouble with
-a United States unless II fits in with
zsrsral staF military plans Of wise
burg and his right he I'd man.
The influence Of