The Washington herald., 1917-02-11
Allies Spring Offensive
May Force Close Of War
Victory Sure in West, Britain Thinks; New Tao
tics, More Men and Guns Will
Do the Trick.
By JOHN L. BALDERsroN.
Copyright. 1917. by the Mcclur, Ne-sp.p~

ny JOhN l.. bALDEhSTON.
Copyright 1917. by the Mcclure Newspapa
syndiats)
London, Feb. 10.-Tne determination of
entente statesmen not to discuss peace
seriously until the next campaign has
been fought out means more than that
peace concluded this winter would be
a German victory no matter what its
terms. because of the glamour Of sue
cess that would surround German gen
erals and the German war. machine. The
present attitude of London and Paris
means that the entente believes victory
In the field possible, otherwise the allies
would not decide to embark upon a new
campaign, the most expensive In blood
and treasure the world has ever known
vaster than the Somme and verdun as
the Somme and Verdun were greater
than Champagne and Loos.
An outline Of the coming. big push" in
the Nest. the hopes its arouses. the issues
1t may decide, will therefore do more
than talk about peace leagues. repara-
ton, security and guarantees, TO show
americans why the war must go on.
Guessing about the results of unfought
battles was once the pastime Of cranks
but, at least So far as the West is con-
cerned, this Is no longer true; the factors
on both sides are known; the number of
men available, the strength of the forti-
'ASAtioHor tiic OF Snells required
to demolish them. the losses that will be
Incurred in any given operation-all these
are capable of rough calculation In ad-
vance.
High Hopes for "Push.-
The writer believes the following pre-
dictions to be safe, based as they are
upon information obtained at British
headquarters in the field and in COM
petent quarters in London:
The 1917 push will open as early as the
weather permits; there will be no wait
Ing as In the two previous years for
guns, shells and men,
The somme battle will be continued, be-
cause the German defenses in this reg on
are weaker than elsewhere. the result on
few months toll and not the toll of
TWO years, and because the semi-circIe
punched into the German front last
summer gravely hampers the defenders
for miles north and south Of the captured
lines.
Other offensives will be started stimuli
taneously at other parts of the line, an
impossioilfty last year because there were
not enough guns or shells to carry on
two Sommes at once, and previous expert
ence proved local offensives to be worse
than useless.
Why. the world asks should a new and
more horrible holocaust Of the youth Of
Europe produce decisive victory, any
more than the campaigns which have
gone before7
The answer of British and French SOL
diers to this question will be given so far
as the censorship will permit. The allies
now have in the West. they say, and for
the hrst time, the three requisites OF VIC
tory. They are. Overwhelming superiority
In men, and in munitions. ana, thirdly,
new system Of tactics. In otner words,
the allies have the tools, and they have
learned how to use them. Under the
three heads. scraps of information OBJ
tained from official sources will be set
down, the accuracy of which cannot be
impugned and the importance of which
cannot be overestimated.
]. There are now 1000, 600 British soldiers
in France. This announcement was made
at British headquarters last week, and
when Gen. Nivelle took command of the
French armies 1t was announced that
100000 men were serving under the tri-
color. These figures. of course, are in
round numbers and take no account of
the number of divisions.
Germans Outnumbered.
Germany is maintaining 12s divisions OF
infantry on the Western front. II these
units were all up to the present field
strength of the average German division.
1900 men. there would be $4,000 German
soldiers in the West. While l am not
allowed to discuss the entente divisional
strength. the contrast of 5,5oo.0o0 French
and British soldiers in the West with the
rs German divisions of nominal
strength of less than 100000 will give
some idea of the present disparity in man
power. although the proportion is prob
ably not so great as five to two, for
certain reasons.
guns and shells to hold Verdun and make
matters very warm for the Germans on
the Somme last summer. What will hap
pen this spring must be estimated in the
light Of such figures as these officially
obtained. During the week ending July
!, last year. when the Somme defensive
began. England produced ninety-four
heavy howitzers of caliber exceeding six
inches. In the week ending November .,
the number OF heavy howitzers completed
was 23. and the rate of increase is still
going UP week by week. That fact alone
is enough to explain the German peace
note. Taking the same weeks. the out
put of medium guns and howitzers be-
tween four and six inches in caliber. was
sixty-six in November against thirty-foIr
in July: forty-six field howitzers We're
made against twenty-seven in July, and
forty-three field guns against seventeen.
These latter figures give the ratio of out
put and not the actual numbers of guns
made, but the first comparison, divulg-
ing that S23 heavy howitzers were actual
ly made in one week, is most illuminat-
ing. In France, Senator Humbert has
disclosed that the manufacture of ex-
plosives increased more than six-fold in
1915.
8. But more men and guns will not
avail If the defending side can continue
to exact heavy toll for each trifing ad
vantage gained, IL the attackers must
expect to lose many times as many men
as the enemy. II is the German theory
that their "impregnablo" trench systems
will equalize the disparity in numbers
and munitions.
Nivelle in Charge.
This is where the new tactics come
in. for whose development Gen. Nivelle
was jumped from a subordinate to the
supreme command of the French armies
In the West. French and British SOL
diers believe that, given the superior
ity in munitions of which they are now
certain, they can conduct war in a way
which will infiict greater losses upon
the defense than is suffered by the at
tack. If this is true, there is no d"u It
that the allies can win in the 1917 cam
paign.