New Britain herald., 1917-02-10
Henry CIeu' s
 Weekly Letter
Especial to the Herald.)

Especial to the Herald.)
 New York. Feb. 10.-A new and, it is feared, final crisis has developed in our relations with Germany; and unless her present submarine policy Is moderated, q single overt act may precipitate war. Usually the sever ance of diplomatic relations is fol- lowed by hostilities, but Germany has shown some hesitation in adding to her numerous enemies and should this spirit hold, 1t is yet possible that such a calamity may be avoided. This country plainly does not want war. That conspicuous fact has been amp ly proved by the forbearance of our government to degree that often provoked adverse criticism of other nations. Let us hope that it may not be our lot to add fuel to the con- migration now devastating Europe, and that instead we may be left free to lead in hastenfng the return of peace.
 Common prudence, however, dic- tates ample preparedness on our part. In case of hostilities, our fleet would be immediately available, and could co-operate with the Allies. Our aid
 
 valuable. On land. it might be some months before we could render vital assistance. There is practically no chance of invasion in the United States, though a considerable guard ing force would be required at home. To send over even a half million of we'll seasoned and properly trained men would require a considerable period, while the forwarding of a mill lion or more would be a still greater task owing to tho difficulties of trans portation and equipment. The most efficient first aid we could offer the Allies would be cooperation of the American fleet, a prompt and ample supply of munitions for France, Italy and Russia, and more liberal financ- ing of these nations in order to as- sist Great Britain. which has taken on the brunt of financing the Allies. We could also do much in building new merchant steamers with all pos sible energy in order to replace those destroyed by submarines. Such ef- forts woud be quite as advantageous to the United States as to the Allies. These vessels could be constructed for strictly American owners, and if properly managed would constitute a very profitable investment for the na- tion as we'll as the owners. Such an enterprise would be simply taking ad- vantage of grand opportunity for the imm ediate establishment on firm basis of the United States as a maritime power. For several years 10 come ocean tonnage will be scarce end freight rates high. No such at tractive opportunity ever occurred Tn our history, and American enterprise should be quick to take proper ad- vantage.
 The continued weakness of the stock market is significant. This week is has been largely due to the beginning of hostilities, partly as a result of timiditv and sometimes in or der to anticipate necessary war financing. In this case there has been extensive foreign selling, both British and German. The British selling was due to the paying of demand loans from proceeds of the recent $25O,- 900. 900 loan. This transaction re- leased consid erable collateral which has been steadily offered for sale. The most important source of weak ness, however, was probably from German sources. The result of Ger man selling was distinctly noticeable in foreign exchange. Marks ad- vanced sharply to over 70, owing to the demand for remittances, it being understood. that fully 75,000;oO0 marks was purchased this week. Pre- vious to this foreign selling, the mar ket weakened on expectation of cessation of war orders, which are be- coming less frequent and less profit n, in, war. To some extent the stoppage of foreign intuition orders will be offset by domestic orders from the Amer ican government for preparedness. Some of these contracts are alrea~y being placed and in event of our en- tering the war such orders will of ne- cessity accumulate more rapidly. To cap the climax in the security mar kets there is a strong bear party which, encouraged by successful campaign of several weeks. is disposed to push it's advantages to the utmost. , When peace negotiations began the market was heavily overbought. It Is now in equal danger of becoming oversold, in which case a sharp rally would follow any favorable news, or when the unfavorable has been amply discounted.
 Aside from the war, home condi- tions are generally favorable. Trade is in sound condition, but much he's itancy prevails owing to the great un- certainties of our international rela- tions. The steel industry is fully oc- cupied and seems assured of abundant orders, peace or war, yet hesitation is marked in many directions Not few concerns have offered their eS- tabHshments to the government in case of war, and the mobilization of industry to a war basis would be ef- fected with much less derangement than two or three years ago. Our textile industries are equally per plexed as to the future. Large orders