Daily capital journal. (Salem, Oregon) 1903-1919, 1917-01-10
The War.


ing for peace. a year ago it was wholly
bent upon war; now it is more and more
devoted to seeking ways and means OF
bringing the CHASTITY struggle to a close.
There are those well informed who be-
lieve that peace is nearer than com
monty supposed, because Germany is
prepared to make greater concessions
than expected; while others as conf
IDENTIFY claim that Germany will at pres
ent propose no terms that the allies are
willing to accept. The latter class of
believers also incline to the opinion that
If present peace movements fail, in
spite of their strong support by neu-
tral nations, the war will be resumed
on both sides with increased vigor and
bitterness. An inconelusive ending of
the war would be disastrous to civiliza-
! tiOn, inasmuch as it would not unlikely
/ precipitate a second war as soon as the
most aggressive belligerents sufficient
! ly recovered, hence an absolute binding,
copper fastened settlement must be at
tanned, including all the belliegrents.
Domestic Politics.
The coming year will be free of one
great uncertainty, the presidential cleo
/ tion. We now have four years ahead
under an administration whose policies
are as well defined as 1t is possible to
have them. President Wilson was able
to carry out IN the main the promises
OF his first term; and whether his sue
cesses are liked or not it would seem
the part of political wisdom not to at
tempt any further experiments until
general conditions are less confused by
! the upheaval abroad. This country has
been sorely perplexed for several years
| by multitude of new political expert
ments, not a few Oh which will be
abandoned when tried out We need po-
litieal rest, and there are enough grave
questions ahead to fully tax all the abil-
ity and strength of the present congress
without multiplying trouble by project
ing q new set of nostrums. The admin
istration might with advantage turn its
attention TO checking national extravag-
ance. During the coming year it is eSti-
mated that the country s expenses win
be from $300,000,000 to $500, 100000 in
excess of receipts, while the deficit may
be enlarged by advances in pay of gov
ernment employees, as well as by excess
sive appropriations for public buildings
rivers and harbors These outlaws FOL
low the heavy increases for the army
and navy, necessitated by prepared
ness and will impress upon the coun-
| try the fact that it must face a heavy
increase in taxation that will prove
more burdensome when business is on
the Wane than now. Various proposals
are already under considera ton, such as
| a bond ISSUE an increase in the tax on
liquor and tobacco, an increase in the
inheritance tax, an extension of the in
come tax to smaller incomes, and the
raising of the tariff on imports, includ,
ing tea and coffee There is also a
! strong movement for protective tariff
on chemicals, and in all probability
there will will be strong agitation ere
long for general tariff revision; though
/ adjustment upwards will be less unset
Ting to business than the reverse. a
factor also that should not be overlook
ed is the Mexican problem, which is far
from being solved and may invite an
outbreak when least expected.
Foreign Trade Markets.
Astounding progress has been made
in our foreign trade, which during the
fiscal year ending January 80 exceeded
that Of any other country in the world
4 Before the war this nation ranked third
/ among exporters, now it is first. Our
total exports in the period mentioned
were $4,333, 100000 compared with So
/ 646,0O0,000, OF our exports went to the
| belligerent nations alone. OF this last
/ total $407, 600 600 represented explosives
/ and firearms, while we shipped to the
warning nations 1872 100000 of brass
and copper, $79.000,000 of horses and
1 mules, 825,000,000 of boots and shoes.
! $32,000,000 of woolen manufactures,
50,000,000 of automobiles and $l4 ,000.-
! GOO of barbed wire, besides millions in
/ a variety of other articles intended for
war purposes. Much as the demand for
war materials stimulated our exports,
the increase in legitimate exports trade
/ was far more important in value In
4 products having no relation to the war
our exports We're valued at $3,170,000,-
4 COO compared with So, l75, ,000,00 in
4 l9l4. This was an increase of one bill
/ lion dollars, or nearly so per cent, in
I our legitimate trade. About half of this
4 vast increase went to belligerent Eu-
4 rope, the remainder being scattered all
/ over the globe. These figures prove
/ that the war gave our exports tire.
mendous push forward, and the vital
/ question now is, win this rate of pro-
gress continued There is no sound reas-
on for anticipating any disastrous re-
! action. Readjustments and loss at some
points must be expected when the war
/ ends. But the war is not ended and a
/ long period must elapse, even if nego-
| tiations are soon opened, before a peace
treaty will be signed, and the millions
/ of men now in the trenches return to
profitable industry. Furthermore. the
energies Of the warning nations will be
/ fully occupied when peace comes with
reconstruction of cities, mills, railroads,
mines, etc, on a vast scale. There Will
I be a big demand for labor in Europe,
and our fear OF an invasion of cheap
foreign labor will prove largely ground
less for the reason that wages there viii
have 10 be adjusted to the high cost Of
/ living, plus the huge burden of new tax
kation under which all Europe win have
I to struggle. The fear Of dumping of
foreign made goods on American mark
/ cts has also been vastly exaggerated.
Iand there is no doubt but that the Uni
/ ted States will be able to hold large
portion of its newly gained advantages
and probably make. still greater pro
\ gress during the next decade. OF course.
there will be severe international com
4 petition. Germany and Great Britain