Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1917-05-06

cent allied success. Forty thousand
accessories are the biggest bag in the
west since the Marine campaign closed
The British performance demonstrates
that in the long run the new British
armies must win the war. for the man
power Of Britain is now greater than
that Of Germany, including British
colonies. and besides there is the con-
siderable remaining man-power OF
France.
Submarine and Russia Give Hope.
But the German reckons that before the
allies. given their present rate of progress.
can reach Germany, Britain will starve.
He calculates upon q separate peace by
Russia, or. at the least. Russian quiet.
II his submarine campaign were a de-
monstrable failure. II there should be a
Russian offensive like that of Brusiloff of
last year. he would probably make peace
on terms that he would not now think Of.
But he has two solid reasons for expect
ing to escape ultimate defeat. the sub
marine and Russia, and he ID likely to
keep on. unless he starves or is defeated
in the field until both hopes have van
ished.
And it is not demonstrable to him or to
the world that the submarine campaign
will fail. We know 1t cannot succeed this
year. II by next year American aid ana
British effort combine to establish the
fact that Britain will not starve, then we
shall have a German surrender because
there will be left no German hope of sue
cess. II Russia has not made a separate
peace. But II Russia makes a separate
peace there is an end Of starving Ger
many and the man-power Of France and
Great Britain will not be able to tear
down Germany and Austria with the
fringes Of allies: not even with Italy could
this be expected.
A separate peace with Russia means
that the United States must supply the
man-power to defeat the central empires
and it means that unless the United
States, in addition. can supply the food
for Britain. the steel for France and the
coal for Italy. there can be. at the least
a drawn battle in Europe. We shall have
to take Russia's place in the battle line
and we shall not be a complete substi-
tute. for we cannot exclude Germany
from Russian wheat fields.
New Peace Campaign in Fall.
Germany expects to hold out until
winter. She expects by her submarine
campaign to bring Britain. at the least
to tho edge OF famine. She plans to
renew her peace campaign OF last year
with the end of the present campaign
She expects that the end OF this cam
paign will find her still fighting far
within enemy territory. Her campaigns
are now directed to holding. to the de-
fensive on land; she relies only upon
the. water for her offensive. but she
relies heavily upon it.
If the United States decides to send
troops at once to Europe. III she begins
at once the transport OF these troops.
and il it becomes clear to the Germans
that we can send and maintain troops
In France, that we are going to send
masses and that some time next year
American armies will take their place
on the front, then the outcome of the
war will be plain to all Germans. on the
military side. This Will be true even il
Russia has made a separate peace
II the United States. acting with
Britain. can. by building ships. by using
by all means conceivable. demonstrate
that the submarine cannot blockade
Britain, that the British people can
continue for year or two more. then
the German hope will expire. But it
will take not less than a year to es-
tablish these things. and in all this
time the German army will still be able
to defend Germany and the German
people may easily he convinced that
Britain is at the end OF her resources.
Arras Like Verdun Campaign.
Examining the present campaign be-
fore Arras. 1t is well for all Of us to
note its resemblance to Nerdun. and
the assertions now made by the British
inevitably suggest the German state
ments when they had failed to get the
French fortress by single thrust. At
that time the Germans saw the extent
of their first success and the gain TO
them in the fall OF Fort Douaumont-
They asserted falsely. it seems now
that they had taken 10000 prisoners.
AS they continued to gain ground. and
thew did continue to gain ground right
up to the moment of the Somme attack.
from February to August they claimed
that they were bleeding France white
There are many points where the
sought to take a fixed objective. the
British are fighting to destroy mill
tary force, but, just as the French were
comforted and encouraged by the re
sistance of their troops, who did, In
fact, slowly yield ground. the Germans
will now be encouraged, are encour-
aged by the resistance of their troops
The German line does hold. as did the
French. 1t has not yet been pierced;
the chance of piercing it before Arras
DTO0ADly nus cH0CA, AoA ZIG CAShchs "a
surprise is gone.
We must all of us guard against an
optimism which will do no good and
may have infinitely harmful conse-
Quences. Reading our dispatches every
day, we may easily conclude that SO
many victories must assure the imme-
diate collapse of Germany. But Ger
many sees 1t quite differently-she sees
that in distant France her armies are
still contesting the ground they have
long held. The loss of a French viii
lage or town means much to the French
and British who take it. 1t does not
mean much to the German people who
learn they have lost 1t.
In the United States we easily imag-
inc that the news that We have en-
tered the war must have a profound eff
feet upon German morale. 1t will have,
but we do not understand that this is
balanced by the effect upon German
Of the collapse Of Russia and
the plain possibility. believed to be a
certainty by most Germans. that Rus
STA will shortly make q separate peace.
we shall be q worse foe
than Russia. but today Russia has mill
lions of trained soldiers where we have
hundreds; she has cannon. armies and
! common land frontier with Germany;
we are Thousands OF miles away, with