Imperial Valley press., 1917-01-27
FUTURE GROWTH
OF AUTMOBILE
MANUF FACTURE

So much has been written relative
to the development of the motor car
industry, and so many prophesies
have been ventured without proper
consideration Of vital and controlling
factors, that a clear and simple analy-
sis Of the subject may serve to dis
spite much of the unfounded conjec-
ture.
The automobile market is divided in
to two broad fields. First, the rural
class, which includes all persons en-
gagged in farming and others in va
rious businesses who live in towns
of less than 500 population, Second,
the urban class, which comprises all
people in any but farming pursuits,
who live in towns Of 500 or more pop
ulation.
In the rural or farming market,
there are 6,500000 families. One mil
lion Of these now own motor cars
and one and one-half millions are
poor, illiterate, or negroes, who for
the purpose of this study may be ex-
cluded from the prospective buying
class. There remain, then 100000
farm families who are possible auto
mobile buyers.
In the urban class, covered by H.
900 towns and cities of more than 500
population, there are about 100000
home owners of which number only
100000 now own cars. Accordingly,
there remain 100000 prospective
luyers in this class, or total actual
unsold larket, in both rural and ur-
ban classes, Of 100000 possible au-
tomobile buyers.
The accepted average life Of an au-
t;mobile is about five years in the
hands of the original owners; and as
the man who once owns a car will not
thereafter be without one, we must
include the recorder market, which in
the calendar year of 1917 will be
about 100000, this being 20 per cent
Of the 100000 now in use.
For the year 1917, therefore, the
automobile business viii face a mar
ket of about 100000 possible buyers.
Not more than 100000 cars will be
built in the coming year, leaving q
possible excess market of G,000000
buyers at the beginning Of 1918.
These figures are decidedly conser-
vative because they take no consid-
Grafton of C) any export trade, (2)
the people who have or will have two
or more machines, (3) increased pop
rlation, (4) increased prosperity, (5)
a million OF more town and city fam
lilies who do not own the homes in
which they live, but are well able
20 buy and maintain motor car, (6)
the business houses, retail and whole
sale merchants who use thousands Of
roadsters for statesmen, and many
thousands more of delivery cars (reg-
ular automobile chassis with CONNER
ci2l body), (O taxicabs and others cars
for public hire.
An important and noteworthy fact
is vouched for by the editorial de-
partment Of Automobile Topics. a well
known trade authority, which has been
making careful analysis of the COM
parative nature of automobile service.
Trey state that Of the 100000 motor
cars Of ali kinds in service in the
United States today, they can con
/ Isorvatively say from their inve5tiga-
tion that over one-half of the mile
age Of the 100000 cars is used for
business purposes. Literally, this
means that of the 100000 automo-
lilies running in this country today
one-half, or 100000, arc used for
business purposes. This leaves only
cne and a half million in use for pleas
ure or social transportation purposes.
In considering the 100000 autono-
biles in use today, which may ,egiti-
rlately be classed as pleasure cars, an
| important fact should be borne in
mind, namely, the so-called pleasure
car Of today has distinct economic
use, it being only reasonable to de-
duce that the time and money spent
in motoring for pleasure or social in
tercouree almost invariably takes the
place OF some other form Of eXpendi-
ture Of Jess actual economic value
Motoring is q pleasure that makes for
broader vision, saner and more hep
full diversions, and more Sympathetic
social life. A nation without its sane
pleasures is hopeless. Therefore, it
IS far from logical to consider the So
called pleasure car Of today as an add
ed luxury.
If production increases at the aver
age rate maintained for the past five
yoars-which is unlikely due to great
! 4p y1o 40 otr,yi,,o, Y1rctlct11s nd. N in