New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-04-07

letter, said
81 see the Kaiser has written US another
letter You know he never wrote to US in
peace time"
There are evidences, too. that others are be-
ginning to think. The Russian revolution is
going to cause many Socialists to discuss the
future of Germany. They have discussed it
before, but always behind closed doors and
with lowered voices. ! attended one night a
secret meeting of three Socialist leaders Of
the Reichstag, an editor of Berlin paper and
several business men. What they said Of the
Kaiser that night would, if it were published,
send every TO the military firing squad.
But these men didn't dare speak that way in
public at that time. Perhaps the Russian re-
volt will give them more courage.
But the government is not asleep to these
changes. The Kaiser believes he can continue
juggling public opinion, but he knows that
from now on it will be more difficult. But he
will not stop. He will always hold forth the
vision Of victory as the reward for German
faithfuness. To-day, for instance, in the
United States we hear very little about the
German submarine warfare. 1t is the policy
Of the Allies not to publish all losses imme-
dately; first, because the enemy must not be
and, secondly, because losses have a bad effect
upon any people
U-BOat Successes Dwet On
But the German people do not read what
We do Their newspapers are printing daily
the ship losses of the Entente. Submarines
are returning and making reports. These
reports are published and in a way to give
the people the impression that the submarine
war is success. We get the opposite i'm
better to Judge than the Germans, because
we don't hear everything.
The important question, however. is: What
are the German people being told about sub
marine warfare?
Judging from past events, the Kaiser and
his navy are undoubtedly magnfying every
sinking for the purpose of stimulating the
people into believing that the victory they
seek is getting nearer. The government
knows that the public favors ruthless tor
pedoing of all ships bound for the enemy, so
the government is safe in concluding that
the public can be stimulated for some months
more by reports Of submarine victory.
Military operations in the West are prob
ably not arousng the discussion in Berlin
that the plans against Russia are. The gov
eminent will see to it that the press points
regularly TO the possibilities of separate
peace with Russia. or to the possibility Of a
Hindenburg advance against England and
France.
The people have childlike confidence and
faith in Won H.ndenburg. If Paul Won Hin
denburg says a retreat is victory the people
will take his judgment. But all German lead
ers know that the time is coming when they
will have to show the German people a vic
tory or take the consequences themselves.
New Peace Offer Probable
HcHCc II NOulu NV NC SUI PllsiHB - oASci
present military operations are concluded,
either by an offensive against Russia or by an
attack on the Western line, the Chancellor
again made peace proposals The Socialists
will force the Chancellor to do it sooner or
later. They are the real power behind the
throne, although they have not enough spunk
to try to Dust the Kaiser and tell the people
to do their own thinking.
A big Allied military victory would, Of
course, change everything. Defeat OF the
German army would mean defeat of Won Hin
denburg, the German god 1t would put an
end to the Ksisers Juggling with his peoples
nerves. But few people in Germany expect an
Entente victory this year, and they believe
that if the Allies don't win this year they
never will win.
Germany is stronger mlitarily now than
she ever was; and Germany will be able for
many months to keep many Entente armies
occupied. Before the year has passed the En-
tente may need American troops as badly as
France needed English assistance last year.
Admiral Lacaze, the French Minister of Ma
rine, told me in Paris that that side will win
the war which holds out one week. one day or
one hour longer than the other And then
the active little admiral, who looks like q
inancier, dressed as he is in civilian clothes,
added And the Allies are going to win"
But General Won Falkenhayn, former chief
of the German General Staff. told me about
the same thing last December, in Rumana.
Says Teutons Will Win
an war everything is uncertain he re-
marked. Nothing is certain except that
everything is uncertain" he added. "but one
thing | know is certain: We will win the
war"
Americas entrance, however, may have the
decisive effect The Allies, especially the
French, appreciate this As high French
official remarked one day when Ambas sador