New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-05-10

Allies have forestaled Ine 1eIlhdh aV'aNN
bv attacks Of their own, which have been
so far successful as to compel the Ger
mans TO spend in checkiny them the larger
part of that strategic reserve which they
had collected for an offensive of their own.
Turning now to the actual situation at
Arras. this may be said: After an ad-
vance in the first week of more than hve
miles along the Scarpe and upward OF
four miles on an average along the whole
front from the Souchez 10 the Sensee nv
er. the British were compelled to pause
to permit the bringing up of artillery, the
relief of war-worn divisions and to pre-
mare for new attacks For the last two
weeks the British have had 10 withstand
terrific attacks by German divisions
drawn from the strategic reserves. and
there has been small change on the front.
4 certain number Of villages have been
taken by the British. and two Of them
Fresnoy and Bullecourt-have been re
taken by the Germans. The most desper-
ate and the most expensive fighting OF the
war in human life has been going on.
But it must be remembered that the
Germans are outnumbered at least two to
one on the Western front. and that the
reserve of British and French man power
is now far greater than theirs. The prob
lem Of the Germans automatically leads
to ruin. 1t is only for limited period of
time that the Germans can match masses
against masses without the total eXhaus-
ton of their reserves. They may be able to
Go it for the rest Of the campaign OF 1914
although this is exceedingly doubtful. They
would not be able to do it now were it not
for the total paralysis of Russian opera
tons. But it is perfectly obvious that Ger
man strategy is now based upon the con
clusion that the element Of time is with
the Germans, and that if Germany can
delay the inevitable Allied success on land
sufficiently long German submarine war
fare will win the war, or at least win a
peace satisfactory to Germany.
Everything that has happened since the
British stepped out of their trenches on
Easter Monday confirms the fact that the
initiative has been permanently lost to the
Germans on the West, that they are mani
festlv out-gunned and that they are COM
pelled to fight a steadily losing battle. 1t
is necessary. on the other hand, to recog-
nize that in the last two weeks there has
been total refutation of any charge that
German morale as a whole has broken
down. German troops have never fought
better in the war than they have fought
IN the last two weeks before Arras. But
this is mainly due to the fact that the Ger
mans have been obliged to use their picked
troops. selected to make an offensive else
where. in endeavoring to bolster up
threatened line.
II is easy to draw too widely optimistic
conclusions from the first month of the
Allied offensive. The French attack along
the Aisne still remains a threat rather
than an immediate peril to the Germans.
Still. the British operation east of Arras
has become deadly peril, and is steadily
forcing the Germans to sacrifice in los
ing game the best Of what is left to them
of their reserves. If it were possible for
Russia to repeat the Brusiloff attack OF
last June now, the end of the war this year
would be assured and a military decision
might be expected in Europe before snow
flies. On the other hand if the Russian
situation continues to get worse. and the
Germans are able to bring more and more
6 -, tho E,a st the W est.
it is entirely possible that they may be able
to avoid decision this year, although 1t IS
exceedingly unlikely that they will be able
to postpone retreat from their present
line to the frontier, as they were able to
POSTPONE their retreat from the Somme to
the present line last year.
On the military side, the last month has
been the most promising for the Allies
since the war began. IT SHOWS superior
itv in guns and in material which has
hitherto either lain with the Germans OF
been possessed by Allies who still lacked
the necessary training TO use 1t. NO
one should be deuded by the German claim
to have prevented the piercing of their
lines. The piercing OF the line IN the west
has been for over two years and half
something that could happen only by ac-
cident, accompanied by the total democrat
ization of huge masses Of men. The Allies
have never expected to pierce the German
lines since they began their attack at the
Somme last year. They are grinding the
German man power, killing, wounding and
capturing more Germans than the Ger
mans are killing, wounding and capturing
British and French combined, and the
German game is up, just as the game Of
the Confederacy was up in 1864, unless
the assured victory Of the Allies on land
can be rendered useless by compensatmg
submarine victory on the sea or by the abb
sol,,.o withdrawal of Russia from the war.