New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-03-20

Unless all signs fail, the moment is almost
at hand when the Germans must shorten
their lines on the Western front. After
nearly two years, in which the long trench
lines have endured with little change from
Switzerland to the sea- the time has come
when all Allied and neutral observers agree
that a considerable change is imminent And
even in German comment there has been
plain evidence that some change is expected
This change is viewed in different ways by
various observers. Roughly speaking, there
are two sets Of views. Not few well IN
formed military critics insist that the change
will be a radical one; that 1t will mean the
evacuation Of practically all OF Northern
France. retreat either TO line running
from Verdun behind the Meuse as far as
Mezieres (Charlevile) and thence northwest
to Lille along the Franco Belgian frontier or
else behind the Meuse as far Namur and
thence nothwestward, covering Brussels and
reaching the Scheldt south of Antwerp.
Perhaps a Limited Retirement
The second view is that the retirement
will be wholly limited and will amount 10 the
Noyon "elbow" or salient If this latter view
is correct we shall presently see the Ger
man front withdrawn until the line passes
southeast from Arras or even Lens TO Laon,
covering the cities of Douai, Cambria and
st. Quentin and resting on the old forts oil
La Fere, from which point it will go south
east TO meet the present line before Laon
and east of scissors.
To support their contention that the re-
treat will be to the Meuse and the French
frontier or even TO the Antwerp Namur-
Mezieres line, the military observers who
hold this opinion bring forward the follow
ing arguments: First of all they point out
that the Germans and their Austrian allies
have lost since February not less than l,0OO,-
900 killed. wounded and prisoners, the prls-
oners alone amounting to 100000. To re-
place this huge loss must strain their re-
cruiting and training machinery TO the ut
most even if there is still plentiful supply
of men. This last assumption is disputed
and evidence is produced TO show that the
Germans in some small degree and the Aus
trians TO considerable degree are revealing
the growing shortage Of men which is the
first sign of inevitable defeat.
Having to find 100000 TO replace casu-
alties. the Germans and their allies have also
TO find not less than 100000 to meet the new
Rumanan thrust. In other words, If Ger
many is merely to hold her ground she and
her allies must find 100000 new soldiers;
must, in fact. have found the major part of
them already in the days since the attack on
Verdun. which cost 100000 casualties, actu-
ally began.
Now Too Few Men
This many believe 10 be impossible. In
other words, they assert that Germany is now
holding all her lines with too few men; that
in doing this she is running very grave risks
and that she will soon have to decide whether
she will retire to shorter lines or invite
disaster where she stands.
Now if Germany is 20 shorten her lines
there can be no question as 10 the front that
can be most safely sacrificed To retreat in
the East would bring lengthening not
shortening Of the front unless Germany re-
tired TO her own East Prussan frontier and
rsked a new Cossack incursion. This is due
10 the nature Of the country now occupied,
since the Pripet Marshes supply large area
that can be lightly held and do not offer any
opportunity for attack.
As 10 any sacrifice in the Balkans, this Is
impossible. because 1t means the elimination
Of Bulgaria, whose statesmen would change
sides at the first sign OF German weakness;
il means the loss Of communication with the
Turk, the eventual collapse OF Turkish re-
sstance and the freeing Of the Straits. When
the Straits are opened Russia can be NUM-
toned at once. and the millions Of Russians
now waiting for guns equipped and set in
motion on the road to Berlin.
But TO go back behind the Mouse and
thence along the French frontier, or even
behind the Verdun -Mezieres- Namur Brussels
Antwerp line, would give Germany at once a
far more advantageous position than she now
holds over much of her Western front and a
& h,,n La no Nh u