Arizona republican., 1917-02-12
BERLIN SEES SMALL HOPE OF AVERTING
 WAR WITH AMERICA
(Continued from Page One)

von Tarnow, respectively German and AustrO- Hungarian ambassadors to the United States, of their concept of armed merchantmen and their liability to at tack as WarShipS.
 The final decision on an out-and-o out submarine campaign of a so-called ruthless type apparently was taken at the grand Austro-German conference at German headquarters on the German | emperor's birthday, though the Asso | ciated Press heard the statement that submarines departing several days | earlier for stations on the submarine i hunting grounds were provided with contingent orders for this eventuality. The censorship. however. shut down ! tightly on any definite statements or 1 predictions of the approaching crisis. Ambassador Gerard, of course, also | was aware of the current gossip and | probably was able to advise the state l department of the possible turn in events, even while the echoes of his | banquet speech were resounding. But he was given no intimation from off 1 cial sources. Foreign office officials avoided the subject in conversations with him and even at his interview with Foreign Minister Zimmerman. the day before the chancellor's official an nouncement in the Reichstag of a ruth 1 less submarine campaign, Herr Zim- merman gave him no definite statement on the morrow's proceedings, although the decisions had been finally reached and the text of the note and the mem orandum were ready, and even maps l of the prohibited zone had been pre- pared for the use of the German news papers.
 The ambassador and the American PnVpTnn1ant thqrafOTa faNad wi h announcement of a fact accomplished when, on the afternoon of January 31, Dr. von Bethmann- Holweg, the im- perial chancellor, promulgated in the | reichstag committee the news that a l relentless submarine campaign would begin immediately and read to the committee the text of the memoran- dunn on the prohibited zone and the note to the United States-documents which reached the American embassy only several hours later.
 There was. therefore, no opportunity or occasion, as in the days of the Sus- sex trouble, for any negotiations to prevent the crisis or an attempt to stave off the coming break between the two countries There was no chance this time for discussion with the chan cellor or an interview with the em- peror, ,peror, such as served to save the day at the time of the Sussex note.
 Nothing could be done except to re- port to Washington the developments which appeared in the press of the world before the embassy dispatches had started from Berlin and await the anticipated explosion.
 This came in the shape of a rupture of realtiOns carrier than even Ameri- cans ha dexpected. and certainly with a promptness which astonished and perhaps even dismayed the German of ficial world, prepared though it was for energetic American action by req son of definite warnings in the Sussex correspondence.
 Just what results the German ex- perts expect from the campaign is un- certain, but in conversations in Ger man naval circles the belief was ex- pressed that if it succeeded in raising the monthly sunken tonnage to a million tons, in addition to having a deterrent effect on 3,000,000 tons of neutral shipping plying to British ports the campaign would effect it's object and force England to consider peace. This, it was stated, would have to be effected by not more than two- thirds of the available submarines, since, owing