New-York tribune., 1917-07-28
West Does Not
Feel the Loss
Of Speculation
War Activities and Good
Crops Stimulate Gen.
eral Business
Chicago. Julp q.

| business in the Middle west, Where "ai
clans and growing crops dominate all
commercial activities.
Western speculation usually con-
verges on products Of the soil, and the
war stimulated it greatly, but at no
time during the last three years was
| the total volume of speculation in COM
modties or securities regarded as
menace. There is now little interest
in securities for either speculation or
investment, as government financing
and mobilization have taken the edge
off. Superprices for some commodi-
ties denote temporary localized famine.
During 1915 and 1915 combined the
speculative trading on the Board OF
Trade, the worlds great central mar
ket for future commitments in cereals
and provisions (hog products), aggre-
gated more than 100000 900 bushels,
reducing provisions TO the equivalent
Of bushels. As the primary receipts of
grain were less than 1000, 100000 bush
els and as future trading in provisions
ia q comparatively small Item. 1t is
seen that each bushel of grain had
velocity Of almost 1000 per cent In
speculative channels.
Game Too Big for Insiders
Commission houses did well, but few
speculators came through ahead. The
"pame" normally is too big for the
outsiders, and in this instance it was
too big for the insiders. 1t became
large part of the war drama, with
needy nations the leading actors.
Finally the May wheat corner of the
Allies this year got beyond control OF
the grain exchanges, which years ago
thought they had abolished corners
forever, and they had to declare en-
bargoes on certain options. They nave
been half closed ever since. The pub
lie does not fret about that. Commis-
sion house men had good inning.
Their business even in peace times
runs in thick streaks OF fat and lean
Consumers persist in the belief that
speculation tends to raise prices SO
the new order of things on the grain
exchanges suits them.
Farmers like to see speculation De-
cause the public is always bullish,
generally .inconsistently bullish, Oh
stocks and cereals at the same time
Ordinary grain speculation since the
war began has not helped farmers
much, however, because the cash gram
ha. been above the level of the futures
most Of the time. With the Board OF
Trade lid down they cannot tell what
prices really are, and they have no
hedging facilities. One can sell an op-
ton under the ban, but cannot buy, ex-
cept against a previous sale. so the
farmers, always better informed than
supposed, know that their case rests
with government-many governments
acting together. Like other large pro-
ducing classes, they would be recon
ciled TO this concentration of control
/ il assured of its orderly exercise, all
assurance rather tenuous when such
right men in the right places as Hoover
and Goethals find themselves politically
handcuffed.
Divergent Views
Farmers have had the best of it since
the war began, and their natural ten
dency to want more than they can rea-
sonably expect has been legislativelv
encouraged, as in the case Of labor or
eanizations also. But the mass of farm
ers. like the mass of workers in town,
are patriotic and reasonable, If not un-
duly influenced. II is to be remem-
bered that the interests of him on his
farm and Of him in his factory are
more alike than either thinks, but they
look at maximum and minimum prices
quite oppositely. Nobody's patriotism
points to such low prices for his prod
uct or to such high prices for the
others product as the other would ia
vor. II is not a function of grain ex-
changes to fix prices, but they had 70,
and under the circumstances they made
the best of an impossible situation.
Board Of Trade members recently
voted to give the directors war time
power to prohibit trading in grain for
future delivery and to fix maximum
prices on cereals and provisions. The
new crop Is coming to market and
promises to be a bumper" There
fore, there must be trading opportu-
! nifty sufficient TO prevent congestion at
the outset, with consequent loss TO pro-
ducers, and subsequent manipulation,
with consequent loss to consumers.
President Griffin Of the Board of Trade
has put the issue squarely up to the
membership Of the exchange and for
the first time in his official career ira
portuned the members to vote for the
new ruling. Incidentally, they also
house system.
Mr.. Griffin says that the bright crop
outlook means no more boarding mania
and probably no further need of max
imum prices, but the exchange authori-
ties will in any event mot tolerate the
use Of their facilities at any time dur
Ing the war unduly to enhance the
price Of foodstufs." The exchanges
await the decision Of the Federal Food
Commission, which has had to wait for
engress.
+ A Problem Of Distribution
Canada has the lead In grain price
fixing, as in many other war measures,