The Washington times., 1917-02-25
REVIEW OF WEEK
IN FINANCIAL WORLD
News Developments Fail to
Have Any Great Effect
on Market.
TRADERS STILL UNCERTAIN
Tendency Now, However, Is to
Minimize Gravity of Inter-
national Situation.
TRADERS STILL UNCERTAIN

otiiA lIlS SouuIy - IN Ine same SLdte OF
uncertainty that 1t was In following the
Presidents appearance before Congress.
For a week or more past, however q
disposition to minimize the gravity OF
the situation because nothing had
chanced to happen that the Administra-
ton could be forced to regard as the
covert act" which would make a con-
tinuance OF peace impossible. has been
apparent. Expressions to the effect that
war with Germany seemed more remote
as each day passed were heard frequent
ly.. So pronounced. indeed. has this COM
Portable attitude made itself felt, not
only in Wall Street but throughout the
length and breadth Of the United States.
that the authorities at Washington have
deemed II wise to issue an unofficial
caution that relations are not only Just
as strained as they well could be short
Of open hostilities but that the accumu-
lation OF offenses arising from unlawful
submarine activities is feaching formid-
able proportions. The only logical con-
clusion to be drawn from this warning
Is that war Is imminent. not only with
the Kaiser's government but with all the
Teutonic allies.
ANGnGGt~os
The feeling Of optimism referred to
was reflected in Wall Street by a wider
public interest In the stock market With
the close OF last week, business has in
creased in volume quite noticeably, al
though still far short of the early ses-
sions Of this year or those OF last year.
But there has been good investment buy
ing all the week. Commission houses
have shown a greater animation than
for several weeks past. Money has
been plentiful and those who have been
waiting for a month or more to pick up
bargains were beginning to feel that II
there was to be no war. the time TO buy
was now. Only war they figured. could
bring the shock that they counted on TO
push the market down sharply and give
them the opportunity to get stocks
cheap. Hence, investment buying has
been quietly increasing in volume. and
had already reached proportions little
realized by the rank and file when the
warning came from Washington The
effect was Immediate. On Monday and
Tuesday, a firm undertone prevailed In
the general list. but on Wednesday. In
dustrial stocks were soft with few ex-
cepuons.
Several Influences Responsible.
Several minor influences operated
to bring about the change not the
least of which was the Intervening
holiday on Thursday. There was a
good deal of settling of accounts,
profit taking, and so on for the ad-
iustment of commitments, In some
cases for the balance Of the week.
Railroad congestion, the shipping sit
uation, particularly with respect TO
the withdrawal of the American line
vessels from their schedules, served
to depress the shipping shares despite
some encouragement for the view
that Germany's submarine campaign
was not altogether so successful as
its adherents could hope.
Premier Lloyd-George and Sir Ed
ward Carson. first lord of the ad-
miralty, indeed state that the situa-
tion is serious, but at the same time
estimates are produced to show that
not more than 1 per cent OF the ship
ping entering and leaving British
ports in the first fortnight of Febru-
ary was lost: that is to say, but little
more than was lost in the same per
iods of January and December last.
With the efforts that are being made
by the allies to curb this piratical
warfare, II may be presumed that
Germany has reached her maximum
exertion to make as formidable a
showing as possible for its effect on
the neutral world as well as for its
moral effect at home.
Refrains From Any Act.
But, as many contend, Germany has
refrained from committing any act
against American shipping sufficient
Iy gIaring to make It impossible for
this country TO ignore II. Hardly a
more superficial view could be taken.
offenses have been numerous and
continuous, but both Washington and
Berlin are exercising all the ingen-
uIty and finesse they can command
to avoid the appearance of precipi-
tating open hostilitles. II is this
careful sparring that has lulled so
many people on this side into a false
sense of security, and that has en-
boldened persons with money to in
vest, to begin to buy. 1t is ques-
ton now whether war has not been
pretty we'll discounted. IL is also a
question whether there would be a
wide open break in values should
declaration come within the next week
or so. There is not only a very large
short interest to serve as a cushion
for the market to fall on, II fall II
must, but there is an extensive re-
serve buying power in orders con-
tingent on the final step to be taken
by Washington. On the other hand,
IL Investors are getting impatient of
waiting Micawberwise, and the pres
ent buying trend should swell into
large proportions, It Is just possible
that n good deal of the buying will
have been finished by the time a de-
claration OF war does come. thus re-
moving, at least partially, one OF the
safeguards against a possible panic.
All these elements are sufficient de-
torrents to speculative activity.
Not Only Results.
But 9aralyzed shipping. railroad
congestion and the increasing cost of
foodstuffs are not the only results of
this country's failure TO take prompt
action with respect to armlng mer-
chantmen. II has indirectly inter-
fered with our financial operations.
Note, for example. the withdrawal of
the. projected Argentine loan and the
abandonment OF the proposed $780,
OOO. 900 blanket mortgage OF the South
ern Railway Company, because the