Omaha daily bee. (Omaha [Neb.]) 187?-1922, 1917-04-26
Department of Agriculture
Prophets of the Crops
BIZ Frederic J. Haskin

| BIZ Frederic j. HGSktn
Washington, D. C., April 23.-The whole De-
partment OF Agriculture today is humming with
activity. You can not go into the smallest OF IT'S
score OF buildings without catching the indehn-
able feel OF large activities and the rush OF prep
aration in the air Nowhere is this feeling stronger
than in the bureau OF crop estimates, where they
are quietly and rapidly taking stock of the farm
and food resources OF the biggest and richest
producer nation on earth
The bureau of crop estimates has already told
us that the winter wheat will be S20OOUOO bushels
short this year, and as result OF that information
steps have already been taken to make up the
shortage The bureau can make an accurate esti-
mate OF the condition and probable yield OF any
important crop in the United States within two
weeks OF the day the estimate is asked for. 1t
can get in reasonably accurate estimate by
wire within twenty-four hours. 1t can furnish
similar estimates, not only on crops, but on any
farm materials or on the available supply OF farm
labor, which is one OF the most pressing ques-
tons OF the moment.
Efficiency is the result of organization. Few
people have an adequate idea Of the huge organi-
cation back OF the monthly crop estimates. In
every one OF the 1850 rural counties in the United
States there is county crop reporter, who gen.
orally has about four assistants who report to
him, making a total of over $4,000 county re-
porters The reports from these men come to the
bureau at Washington, where they furnish the
basis for one set Of estimates.
Then there are the township reporters, work
ing independently one to every township-33OOO
Of them in all. These men also report directly
to the bureau, and their estimates are tabulated
and totaed furnishing the basis for second esti-
mate that is used for check on the first.
Thirdly, there is in every state a salaried spe-
cialist who has a corps of voluntary reporters
covering the state quite independent OF the county
and township reporters, making reports to him
direct This specialist travels about his district
and on the basis Of what he sees and what his re-
porters tell him he prepares crop estimate OF
his state, which he sends to the bureau
Thus the bureau has three separate and dis
tinct sets of estimates to collate and check up i'll
preparing its final estimate. By means of this
system estimates are made so accurately that
they check up within or per cent of the actual
crop yield. 1t is possible to check up the esti-
mates on the cotton crop very accurately because
the census bureau is ordered by law to report
on the actual amount OF cotton produced. The
crop estimate on cotton has differed, less than
per cent from the actual crop harvested for the
than one-haf of per cent. This is good deal
closer than the individual farmer can estimate
in advance the yield from ten-acre field
Regular estimates are published monthly on a
long list of staple crops, but the bureau of crop
estimates can give an accurate idea of the national
supply of everything connected with the farm
Recently it was desired to know how many steam
tractors there were in use in the United States
The bureau sent out queries to $1,000 selected CO.
operators, and in few days could announce that
there were $4,000 tractors in use in the United
States. The value of such service to nation
at war is very clear.
The work OF the bureau is made possible by
he of nal snirif of RAT
and good will. Only the state inspectors and
few specialists draw salaries. The thousands
on thousands OF crop reporters do their work for
no compensation, often going to great trouble
gathering information and filling out regular and
special reports, and without them the service
would be impossible. Most of the county and
township reporters are farmers while the state
inspectors get another line on the situation
through such men as milers, managers of grain
elevators, business men and bankers.
When the various totals on the three sets Of
estimates have been compiled a so-called crop
estimating board goes into secret session to COM
pile the final estimate. Every precaution is taken
to prevent leaks" because little advance infor-
nation on the estimate of such a crop as wheat,
for example, would lead to fortunes being made
and lost on the exchange. The reports of the
state estimators have previously been sent to the
department in special envelopes. They go direct
to the secretary's Office where they are locked in
special safe and only the secretary or the acting
secretary of agriculture may open them. While
the crop estimating board is in session-usually
matter of five or six hours-the whole bureau
of crop estimates is locked and no one is allowed
to pass in or out
When the estimate has been made and printed
on number of Monograph sheets for distribu-
tion to the newspapers and others, the sheets are
taken down to the telegraph section. The exact
minute for publication has been made public long
in advance. A few years ago the board was thirty
seconds late in announcing its results. During
that thirty seconds rumor got started on the
cotton exchange that the results were different
from what they actually proved and large sums
OF money were made and lost in consequence.
On a long table in the telegraph room the
report sheets are laid face down before the rank
ing official. He folds two sheets and hands them
to the telegraph operators. When the estimate
concerns an important crop there is Icing line
| of newspaper correspondents and others waiting
| for the results. Each man is handed sheet
which he holds before him face down until the clock
ticks off the appointed minute. Then another set
| of crop estimates has become public property