The Birmingham age-herald., 1917-09-13

The so-called embargo on cotton to neutrals should have small, if any, eff feet upon the gross movement is the opinion of Clarence Ousley, assistant sec retary of agriculture, who has issued a statement on the subject, with. an analysis Of the statistical position showing that this. years production is considerably below last years takings. Mir. Ousley's statement follow:
 Tt is painful to observe that there are American citizen who for gain or in prejudice would distort the truth in re- gard to the regulation of cotton exports to neutrals Of course the export of cot ton to neutrals Is not forbidden; it is to be confined to demonstrated needs for actual consumption in order to prevent cotton from reaching our enemies, the central powers Last years exports to all countries other than France, Italy, Russia, England, Canada and Japan were only 722134 bales, and yet I read a state ment in a newspaper a few days ago to the effect that the embargo would cut off the markets for 100000 bales As the cotton crop is now moving it is we'll for us to know the precise facts.
 The total exports before the war were a165,300; last year they were 5,S47, ,165. Before the war exports to Germany were 2,785,220; to Austria, 1O1,7S5; total 2,S87, ,006.
 
 the year before the war and last year Is S,21S1S5. It will be seen that the suspen- sion of exports to Germany and Austria lacks comparatively little of accounting for the difference between exports now and before the war The neutrals last year received 599,03S bales. Where are the markets that would take 100000 bales but for the embargo?
 Tt is interesting to observe that ex- ports to England last year were 2,793, ,SSS compared with 3,394241 for the year be- fore the war, or difference of only 600- S53, while exports to Italy and Japan in creased 321,132 bales. It is plain to be seen that other countries are supplying such small part of the trade as England has lost and that the substantial dif- ference between the total exports last year and the year before the war is the lack of cotton formerly supplied to Ger many and Austria and the savings or deprivations practiced generally on ac- count of the war
 Therefore, it is obvious that the so- called embargo on the shipment of cot ton to neutrals in itself will not nateria,- ly decrease the total American experts and should not appreciably affect prices this year. The question is not what we may be unable to ship to the neutfSi is but what we may be able ot ship to countries permitted to receive freely As to that. the only element of doubt is the amount of tonnage available. There is nothing in the present situation to warrant the fear that the countries which received cotton last year will not receive substantially as much this year. The submarine men, ace has not been removed, but it seems to be diminishing in a relative sense. The latest dependable calculation shows that the net decrease of tonnage on the present building conditions will not exceed 2,500,- k 900 tons a year, and it is fair to assume that at the present rate of destruction of shipping cotton will be exported dur ing 1917-191S in volume nearly, if not quite, equal to the volume of 1916-1917 It Is as reasonable to anticipate peace before another crop can be grown as to an- ticipate the complete or greatly increas- ing success of the submarine.
 With the present crop of 12, 4e9, ,0o0 bales, with record of 7,49f0S6 bales taken in the United States last year, with an un- precedentedly small carry-over from 1s16- 1917, with Liverpool and continental stocks nearly 5e0,000 bales less than last year, with stocks of dry goods low every where and certain increase of demand In the United States due to the mobiliz- ing of 100000 soldiers within 12 months and supplying them with khaki and tents there is no reason whatever for doubt that there will be demand for all the