New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-01-22
High rices Lead
To Substitution
AS Goods Of One Kind Become
Scarcer Cheaper Articles Gain
Favor Among Consumers
nv ARCHER WALL DOUGLAS

BY ARCHER WALL DOUGLAS
The only sure way in any economic
reasoning is to reckon backward from
the ultimate consumer. for he Is ever
the head and front of all causes. Just
now prices Of commodities are unduly
and abnormally high, with the unfortu-
nate likelihood Of going still higher
Withal there is only here and there u
check in consumption and use, and
that Is the crucial thing and the one to
watch. The reason for this curious
anomaly is that in general the purchas-
ing ability Of the consumer is greater
than for many years. This, too, de-
spite the unpalatable fact that both
wages and salaries. especially salaries,
lag far behind advances in prices
of commodities. But employment IS
general. and that means much. 1t
means that the purchasing power IS
widespread and that there are few idle
hands to be a drain upon the wage
earners.
In times such as these manufactur-
ers are apt to lose their sense OF pro-
portion, because they are far removed
from the original and compelling cause
the consumer-and are prone to be-
lieve that the present state Of AFFAIRS
will continue indefinitely. Meanwhile
the distributors, both wholesaler ana
retailer. are keeping their eyes on the
consumer and are basing their con-
duct of affairs on his actions. So far
the consumer has stalled and halted
for the nonce at unexpected and I'M
precedented high prices and then gone
on buying. though not always In the
same channel. There has been much
shifting and changing. High priced
articles going still higher are not so
eagerly sought when something less
costly mostly answers the same purpose.
A modest case In point Is that OF solid
brass shoe nails. They have almost
quit selling, while the demand for the
brass plated article has grown in pro-
portion. This came phase of substi-
tuition is found In every line, so that
the high priced article does not go sc
we'll as at first and the cheaper one
gains steadily in favor.
There is more buying for the imme-
date future than usual, because there
seems TO be but little apprehension as
to any cessation in present demand for
the next six months. Goods are get.
ting scarcer in many lines, and so
there is much anticipation. This is
spurrcd on by the threat of still higher
prices. Yet such forethought of pur-
chasing is for needs and not for spec
ulation in the sense Of buying more
than wants require because Of hope OF
profit from appreciation in prices.
Business conditions on the whole
are inherently sound. Such stocking
UP as can be done is with the thought
Of taking the goods somewhat in ad-
vance lest it be not possible 10 get
them in the hour of need.
So long as nothing appears to change
tho situation, and so long as the con-
sumer continues 20 buy freely, just
so long the merchant nearest the con-
sumer, the retail dealer, will follow
suit. Nevertheless, there is a brood
ing realization that somewhere upon
tho horizon unsettled weather is com
ing. and that meanwhile it is well not
to spread too much canvas. even
though sailing FREQ seems safe and the
best course.