The Birmingham age-herald., 1917-08-13

From "A Fourth Year of World War,
 By Frank H. Simonds, in the Amer
 ican Review of Reviews for August,
 1917.
 TIN recent months there has been H great accession of German confi- S fidence based upon the submarine and the Russian revolution; there has been a new hope that Germany might win the war, after all. But these hopes have gone glimmering with the return of the Russians to the attack, the un- satisfactory harvest of the submarine, which discloses the fact that 1t cannot win the war this year or next at the present rate. and finally. the entrance of the United States into the war and the arrival of American troops in France The echo of all this we hear in the present crisis in Berlin. It is no part of the talk of the military reviewer to dis cuss political events We have not yet any satisfactory evidence as to the true meaning of the passing of Bethmann- Hollweg and the pending changes in the German government or system. but 1t is plain that these changes are the fruit of military disappointments and are mani festly consequences of a growing recog- l milton in Germany of the fact that the war cannot be won and may be lost, 1 We shall have a real measure of the German spirit when there emerges from 1 the fog some definite statement of Ger
 man peace proposals. Unless these pro- posals accept unequivocally the Rus
 sian view of no annexations and no in demnities, 1t Is safe to conclude that 1 they will be thrust aside by the na- tions now fighting Germany. Even if
 they do make such proposals, the al- lies will infallibly demand a German agreement to settlement of the Alsaee- the Italian Irredenta in favor of Italy and the reconstituton of the Balkans in | favor of Servia, insuring that state a seaboard on the Adriatic and an in- crease of Serb lands at the expense ot Austria.
 many-and of her allies, of willingness to open these questions might lead tc an agreement to settle colonial ques. tions about the green table and to ne. gotiate on the question of German in terests in Central Africa. seems to mt
 quite likely. But this Is mere speeu lation. Germany must first renounct
 conquest, second. consent to sacrifices
 until these things happen there can b' no peace conference this year, OF befor,
 a campaign of 1s1S
 Yet recognizing all this 1t seems t, me plain that we are entering the las
 year of the war. For my own part.
 am convinced that if the war lasts unti , the fourth anniversary. we shall then b within two steps of peace and my con , viction is that peace will come befor , that annivereary. The temper in Aus , tria, the change wrought in the nea , east by Russian renunciation of an ness of perception in Germany that vic r tory is impossible and that disaster lie { | in future prolongation of the struggl
 are for me clear indications that we ar : on the edge of q change in the whole sit } nation, a change which will make mili Q tary events from now on of less impor tance than political.
 In all this 1t seems to me the Unite
 States has a very clear mission. w
 must, first of all. continue to send me and supplies and munitions to Europ, {. because believe that the arrival ( . American troops in France has alread F been an unmistakably powerful influenc !, in bringing change in Germany Tn a more troops we send to France the les
 chance there will be that we shall hay