Pine Bluff daily graphic., 1917-09-11

embargo on cotton to neutrals should have small, if any effect, upon the gross movement, is the opinion oI Clarence Ousley, assistant secretary Of agriculture. who today issued q staIe- ment on the subject with an analysis of the. statistical position show ing that this years production is considerably below last years takings. MT. Ous- !ey's statements follow:
 "It is painful to observe that there are American citizens who for gain or in prejudice would distort the truth in regard to the regulation of cotton exports 10 neutrals. Of course the export of cotton to neutrals is not for bidden; it is to be confined to demon stratc needs for actual consumption in order to prevent cotton from reach ing our enemies, the Central Powers. Last years exports to all countries other than France, Italy, Russia, Eng land, Canada, and Japan were only 722, ,134 bales and yet l read a stte- ment in newspaper a few days ago to the effect that the embargo would cut off the markets for four million bales. As the cotton crop is now nov ing it is well for us to know the pre- else facts.
 "The total exports before the war were 5.947 ,165. Before the war eX- ports to Germany were 2.7S522O: to Austria 1O1, ,7S6; total, 2.SS7,OO6. The difference between the total exports the year before the war and last year is 3.21S13 It will be seen that the suspension of exports to Ger
 many and Austria lacks comparative ly little Of accounting for the differ
 ence between exports now and before the war. tThe table shows tha European ncutrals last year received 599,033 bales. Where are the mar kets that would take four million bales but for the embargo?
 "It is interesting to observe that exports to England last year were g. l 793,3SS compared with 3,394.2 for the year before the war or a diff ference of only G00S53, while exports to Italy and Japan increased 321.1S2 bales. It is plain to be seen that other countries are supplying such small part of the trade as England has lost and that the substantial diff
 
 1 last year and the year before the war 1 is the lack of cotton formerly sup piled to Germany and Austria and i the savings or deprivations practiced generally on account of tfo war. Will Net Decrease Exports.
 Therefore, it is obvious that the so-called embargo on the shipment of cotton to neutrals in itself will not materially decrease the total Ameri- can exports and should not apprecia- bly, affect prices this year. The ques- l ton is not what we may be unable to ship to the neutrals, but what we may be able to ship to countries per- mitted to receive freely. As to that, the only element of doubt is the amount of tonnage available. There is nothing in the present situation to warrant the fear that the countries which received cotton last year will not receive substantially as much this year. The submarine menace has not been removed, but it seems to be diminishing in relative sense. The latest dependable calculation shows that the net decrease of ton mage on the present building condi- tions will not exceed two and half million tons a year and it is fair to assume that at the present rate of de-
 struction of shipping cotton will be exported during 1917-191S in volume
 nearly, if not quite, enual to the
 volume Of 1916-1917. It is as req
 sonable to anticipate peace before
 another crop can be grown as to an- ls1:, 1o{o in creas:ng success of the submarine.
 With the present crop of 12.499,
 GOO bales, with record Of 7,491.CS6
 bales taken in the United States last I year, with an unprecedentedly small carry-over from 1916-1917. with Liv-
 erpool and Continental stocks near ly 5OO,0O0 bales less than last year,
 with stocks of dry goods low every
 where and certain increase of de-
 mand in the United States due to the
 mcbilizing of two million soldiers
 within 12 months and supplying them
 with khaki and tents, there is no req son whatever for doubt that there
 will he demand for all the American cotton in sight avs'ilable for export
 Last year American takings were I,iol,Ooos dIlu ldoI ycai CApoi U. 5.947165, making a total of 13,43S,- 250 bales or 939,250 more than the
 estimated crop of this year. A 1C per cent decline in both exports ant
 domestic consumption would not { equal the difference between last years takings and this years crop
 As already shown there is no appar
 ent reason for a decline in either. AT 3 increase in exports is expected witt
 any improvement in shipping facili , ties; only the necessities of trans , portation of soldiers and supplies ii , likely to cause decrease, and if cir f cumstances should cause a decreas' , of exports. there is likely to be cor .'riod) 2 increere of American : manufactures to such extent as capa . city may permit because the worl' ..