New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-03-25
When Industry
Is Adjusted to
A War Basis
Government Needs Will Super
sede Ordinary Commercial
Demands
BY ARCHER WALL DOUGLAS

BY ARCHER WALL DOUGLAS
st. Louis, March %.
The immediate future of the indus
trial situation depends largely upon its
reactions to what seems at this writing
to be our inevitable ENHANCEMENT in
the European war. Speculation as to
the result draws on the Spanish Amer
lean War for an analogy. 1t IS doubt
full, however, il there will be that initial
period of uncertainty and suspense
which marked the beginning Of the con-
/ flict Of score of years ago. Nearly
three years of painful watching and
waiting have dulled the primal keen
! edge Of apprehension.
The first effect will probably be a
disturbance Of the labor market, be-
cause Of the withdrawal of many young
men from productive pursuits to enlist
in the army, though in all likelihood
the immediate supply of volunteer sol
diers will first come largely from the
mercantile and professional classes.
Should the government, as is most
likely, commander many factories for
needed supplies, there will ensue sub
stantial diminution of the available
production in many lines for CONNER
cial uses. This will be felt TO an ex-
tent little comprehended by those who
have not analysed the situation. Gov
eminent demands for army uses Will
effect practically every line of business,
and thus accentuate that difficulty IN
getting goods which is already 40
marked a feature OF the commercial
situation. This sudden demand will 70
a large extent replace that gradually
diminishing call from Europe for mu-
nitions of war, and thus serve not only
to sustain out to still further advance
already top-heavy prices. This pyra-
mid has now an apex out of proportion
10 the extent of its base, and yet there
seems TO escape fron the fact that
Osss will still be piled higher on Pelion.
Shipments Still Restricted
Meanwhile, manufacturers in all lines
find it impossible to shin orders within
any reasonable time. Yet, on the other
hand, it is equally true that the stocks
os merchandise in the hands of who'll
salers and retailers are large, though
frequently badly broken and often lily
assorted. 1t is most difficult, for in
giance, TO accumulate any stocls of sea-
sonable spring and summer goods, or Of
things connected with building, such as
carpenters, and edge tools and builders
hardware. Yet, again, despite the con-
stantly grow ing trade on automobile
sundries, they are to be had in fairly
good supply
We are still realizing our dependence
upon the outside world for innumerable
items, many Of them apparently insig-
nifcant compliments to greater things,
yet whose lack deprives us of the COM
plcte article. In addition to the inaoil-
ity of the factories 20 make prompt
shipments, there are added freigh. con-
gestion at important centres, and en-
bargoes.
Little Commercial Speculation
But with all.these handicaps the vol
ume of business in general goes on like
the swelling stream, thus evidencing
that back of all the abnormalities of
the present situation there is genuine
consumption and much development
and exploitation of resources.
In the commercial world there is
practically no speculation in the sense
of commitments other than for actual
wants, so far as it is possible to dag
nose them intelligently. The only
chance that business forethought is TAX
ing is providing for such goods as it
must have for the coming fall, because
of the full knowledge that if it does not
now do so it stands good chance Of
never getting them at all.
The real centre Of interest is in the
promise of the crops, and that, as usual,
is a much mixed story. There is a large
acreage of oats in the South, but they
were hurt some recently by most unsea-
sonaOle cold, though not so much as at
first was feared and reported. There Is
likewise more winter wheat than ever
before growing in the South, and it is
generally in good shape. save in some
of the states bordering on the Ohio
River. Also, there will be a great acre
age devoted TO cotton this year.
Condition of Crops
II is dry in Southern Texas and Kan
sas needs more rain soon if it is 20
raise a big winter crop. Winter wheat
is a spotted proposition, hurt here and
there by winter killing, but suffering
mostly from early lack Of moisture. In
scattered localities the damaged fields
are being ploughed under and planted
to oats, Of which there will be an i'm
mense acreage this spring. In general
winter wheat has a somewhat larger
acreage than last year, and the cordi
ton has distinctly improved in the last
thirty days. From all sections comes
the story Of great preparations for
-1o-.,r, all eor+a of food produrtg .hi Z