New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-08-02


sistance constant-that is, if there is no
piercing of the German line-the Germans
may be able to take new position either
behind the Lys or the Scheldt and main
tain the rest of their front in France. If
the British force the crossings of the Lys at
Menin and Courtrai then the Germans will
probably have to retire from Lille, Rou-
baix, Tourcoing, and this might involve an
eventual retreat to the French frontier and
a stand on the line of the Mouse and the
Scheldt from Verdun to Antwerp, cover
ing Brussels.
But all these possibilities are now re-
mote. Unless all signs fail we are to see
one more bitter, gruelling contest Of the
Somne sort. Gains of mile or two are
unlikely after the first few days, except
after long preparation. An actual pierre
ing of the German front is the remotest Of
all possibilities. Yet it is exactly this pos
sibility which will be seized upon by the
Germans as the test Of Allied success or
failure.
The test of Allied success or failure Will
be the comparative casualty lists OF the
two forces, the ultimate condition Of the
two armies when the struggle ends because
Of weather conditions, and the amount of
ground conquered will be of only secondary
Importance. Recall that Grant broke the
back of the Confederacy in his campaign
from the Rapidan to the James In 1864
without winning decisive victory or at
tanning one of his immediate detectives.
His campaign led to ultimate success be-
cause the South could not replace casual
ties and he could.
It is well to bear in mind that the British
attack may be shifted to the La Bassee
sector-it may be transferred south of
Lens or it may continue on the present
front. The initiative now remains per-
manently with the British. And the ex-
PLANTATION Of the German attacks upon the
Chemin-des-Dam is plainly to be found
in the presence of French troops in Elan
ders. Clearly the Germans, aware of this
transfer, sought to prevent it by pressure
exerted along the Aisne. And it is clear
that their costly efforts were failure.
We are probably at the beginning of
the greatest campaign of the war. To an
nounce that the British detectives are
Lille. Journal and Ostend, to proclaim
that the British are striving to cut off the
Germans from the seacoast or penetrate
the German front, is to make the maxi
mum of ultimate possibility the test of i'm
mediate success. And we shall find the
Germans doing this at once and doubtless
persuading the thoughtless that the often
sive has failed because it has not ended in
a colossal immediate success.
But it is well to recall that no such i'm
mediate results are expected. The cost in
men is a better measure of the real success,
and the condition of the two armies next
November and the reserves of the two ma
tons then will be the real tests of success
or failure.
The British attack will hardly have an
immediate effect in the East, because few
German troops are operating there, and
Russian disintegration, not German battle
triumph, explains that situation. Unless
all signs fail there will shortly be new
Italian offensive, which will distract Aus
trian attention and tend to help the Rus
slams, if, indeed, it be possible to help them.
As to the immediate gains of the British
and French and their significance, the re.
ports are still too fragmentary to draw
any valuable conclusion. At the end of the
first days fighting the French and British
had nearly, but not completely, regained
the ground lost in April, 1915, at the time
of the "poison gas" attacks; but the British
had not yet regained the ground lost in
October, 1915, due eastward of Ypres in
the direction of Menin.
The statement Of Sir Douglas Haig that
all the qbjectives of the first attack were
attained is borne out by the pause follow
ing the offensive. This contrasts with the
desperate fighting for days in the Cham
payne offensive in 1915, and even in the
case of Vimy Ridge, where it took sus-
tanned and repeated efforts to complete the
clearing of the German positions. Now we
have rather the tactics of Petain's two
Verdun operations and Haig's recent at