The Washington herald., 1917-02-19
GERMAN U-BOAT PLANS
PROPHESIED BY WRITER
England Able to Meet Submarine Men
ace, Naval Expert SAYS.

CIhls article, forecasting the change in
Germany's submarine war policy. was
written January p, before the German
note was made public)
Copynsht, 1917. by the Mcclure Newspaper
syndicate.)
by JOHN l. BALDERSTON.
London, Jan. 2T-''If we can hold our
own on land. we can win the war under
the water"
-Ihls utterance OF a prominent German.
quoted here by a returned traveller un-
aouotedly represents a view current in
germany since submarine successes in
creased and prospects of decisive victories
ashore diminished. There is no attempt
mere to deny that the submarine situation
Is serious. The menace to the merchant
service Is far greater now than at any
period OF the war. and it requires all our
energy to combat it," Sir John Jellicos
r7cently stated.
But that the Germans can win the war
with their U-boats Is believed by nobody
They are increasing the tonnage diff
culties of the allies. putting some pres
sure on the civilian populations, and pro-
longing the war to the extent that they
hamper the shipment OF munitions. But
Inc hardships due to lack OF tonnage are
much more due to the requisitioning of
SHIPS for military purposes than to the
submarines. Nearly half OF the mercan-
tile marine has been taken over by the
army or navy; not one-eighth of it has
been sunk by the enemy.
ships Sunk by Germany.
From the daily lists of ships sunk
which are issued, it appears that from
october 26 to January o, a period of
ninety days. 40 vessels have been sunk.
An encouraging feature of the situation
IS that the Germans have not been able,
a mt TOD to fv,rr
structive powers during the last three
months, as the following table giving the
number of ships sunk each fortnight will
show:
October 26-November 9.................. s.
November 1O-November 24............. 81
November 25-DeCember 9................. lO5
.1ecember 1O-December 24................ 20
December 25-January S................ So
January 9-JanUary 23...................... IS
Total ................. 40
These figures are serious enough. but
hey do not Indicate that the submarines
At present are increasing in efficiency.
The naval correspondents of the London
papers point out, however, that in thirty
I'VE weeks from the commencement OF
he submarine blockade on February
~. 1915, only l75 British ships were sunk,
while in the last twelve weeks 1S7 British
ships went to the bottom. The sub
marines. now operating on the high seas
instead Of combining their operations to
British waters. are therefore making
three times as much progress as at first
Inis IS due in great measure to increas-
ed ruthleSsnCSs. Neutral ships are sunk
without cOmpunCtion al present if they
carry cOntraband or even British cargo, !
unless they ha ppen to be American. and
Inls was not done in the first phases of ,
the Campaign. Almost exactly half of
the ships being sunk at present are
ncutraIs.
Car Meet Situation
Gerard Fiennes a well-known naval su-
ihority. has made a close study Of the
submarine problem. and is confident that
ne menace can be dealt with success
tuIy. To win the war under the wa
ter, he declared, the Germans mean
70 destroy as much shipping as they can
and to terrOrize the rest. They profess
d believe that II their U-boats are used
~utAessly, they can account for 4 mff- |
ION tons a month II so. they could clear |
the seas of British, allied and neutral |
shipping in less than two years and. !
long before the end of that time, would |
have driven US to an extremity They
profess to have 300 submarines built and |
loo more under construction. They boast |
that they can train crews in twelve
weeks. From this liberal discount must |
he taken. 1t Is unlikely they have half |
the number of boats they claim actually |
in service. and, II they can train crews !
to do the sea laborer's work In the time |
alleged, they certainly cannot train off, |
GERS. They assert that their losses from |
all causes since war began have been |
less ths1 a hundred boats. About this our |
admiralty keeps their own counsel, and |
one does not nowadays believe anything a !
bArauSA he p1If ha
assertion is possibly true.
The counter measures demanded are |
various and numerous. The first and |
best is to devise means of destroying the |
U-boats. This must in any case be a |
gradual process. The second is to take |
such steps as shall render them innocu-
Gus, to find out their hidden bases Of |
supply IL they possess them, to destroy /
their store ships, and to compel them to |
keep under water when attacking. which !
can best be affected by arming merchant |
men and providing them with trained .
gun crews. The third is to build, as rap
idly as possible. more merchant ships to
take the place Of those that are lost"
Predicts Ruthless War.
According to the naval correspondent of
the Daily News the possible output of
Great Britain. the United States and
Japan in a single year is almost as great
wrought by submarines during the whole
war. England, he says, can produce
100000 tons. the United States 1,Z5O.OOO
tons and Japan $40 600 a total tonnage of
10000
The main interest Of the present phase
or the campaign for Americans is the
almost certain fact that the German ad-
miralty sooner or later will go back to
its conditional pledge to President WiIeon
and commence a ruthless war against all
shipping. Arthur Pollen. the foremost
lay naval writer in England, declared
this week, The German undertaking of
last May contained the proviso that cir
cunnstances might compel the German
higher command to withdraw from it
II is as clear as anything can be that
the time for this denunciation has now
come The pressure being brought will !
certainly supply the excuse for a form
Of action for which the desperate state
Of Germany IS the real cause"
Pollen believes that 1IItirnate tho sinh