The Birmingham age-herald., 1917-12-12
TRADE BALANCE
 GROWS ENORMOUS
By HOLLAND

New York, December 12.-(Speeial) ) Probably by September l, 1918, the gov ernment statisticians will be able to re- port that the trade balance in favor of the United States for the four years of the war is, in the aggregate, between $S, 900 100000 and $9,0O0,0O0,00O. This is a unique, a phenomenal record The yearly trade balance in favor of the United States since the war began will be found in September to have been approxima te- ly $2,000OOO,O00. The authorities at Wash ington now know that the favorable trade balance up to November l since the war began was, expressed in dollars: It amounted to $7,773,0O0,000.
 Of course, there were some offsets, but, presumably, not to be compared in mag nitude with the offsets against the favora- ble trade balance reported each year for several years before the war began. Sometimes that favorable balance was es- timated at $500 ,000 sometimes a little less One of the leading international bankers said in 1913 that our export ot cotton had of itself several times created a favorable trade balance of the year for the United States, in one instance as much as $50O,OO0000. In other words. our lUleIUdllOlldl LTdQG GApOTL anu HI port substantially balanced, leaving cot ton out of consideration. The cotton fields of the south furnished the excess in our favor in our international trade.
 But there were many millions of dol- lars which represented the invisible or unrecorded obligations which we paid to other nations. For instance, there were travellers letters of credit, sometimes es- timated in excess of $10O,000,O00 a year. Since ho yuo v,ro otia I1xy, lat of credit have been issued. At least none large enough substantially to affect our trade balance for the last three years and half. Then there were charges for freight and insurance, and large item was the payment of dividends and inter- est upon American securities which were held abroad. In order to learn what our favorable trade balance in the years be- fore the war was it would be necessary to subtract from the visible balance these various items. Occasionally it was thought that these items were large enough practically to extinguish trade balance.
 NOT so NOW
 But the balance in our favor of nearly $8,000,000,000, which is the aggregate since the war began, Is presumably not greatly affected by invisible items. The Amari- can securities, which were estimated to aggregate about s5,000, ,00O,oOO, which were held abroad when the war began, have been in considerable and possibly in great measure returned. The dividends and interest upon these securities are now for the most part paid to our own investors. Traveller letters of credit are eliminated We are still paying a large amount for freight or insurance, but the presumption is that this favorable trade balance as well as the increase of it which will be maintained until the war ends and perhaps for sometime after is not to be greatly diminished by the so- called invisible items.
 In addition to the trade balance which represents the excess of our exports over imports, there are the advances which have been made by the government and also to the extent of many million dol lars, by American bankers to the allies. Should the war be continued another year these advances may be found to be in excess of $1, 900, 100000. If these are to be reckoned in the general interna tional financial condition as we shall find i. after the war is ended, then it is reason able to assume that other nations will owe the United States probably as much as $12,000, ,000,0 900, possibly as much as $l5,000 O00, GOO
 One of the leading men of finance in speaking this morning of these figures said that it would be worth while for those high in authority when speaking to the public of the magnitude of the financial obligations which the country