New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-05-02
The Brutal Truth

should be continuation of the present
tendency to believe that the war is all
but over, and that the recent successes Of
the Allies in France are but prelude to
q German collapse. Nothing Of the sort
is true. Despite the recent considerable
initial success Of the Allied offensives, the
best military judgment is that it will be
impossible now for the Allies to get a
military decision in the present year, and
that the war, judging by the military cir
cumstances, must go on at least through
q campaign of 1918.
There is a very general notion IN the
United States that Germany must soon
surrender because Of starvation. This is
possible, but unlikely. If Germany can
last through the next two months, she Will
be able to 90 through many months more
because the new harvest will begin to come
in. and. whether it be sufficient for an
other year or not, it will give Germany
food for long period Of time
The chance OF a military decision by
the Allies this year was conditioned upon
the arrival Of Russia, remunitioned and
reorganized. on the Eastern front. Unless
every sign fails, this will not happen
Russia. to all appearances, is for long
neriod of time out of the war so far as an
offensive campaign is concerned and the
real question IS whether Russia can hold
orv considerable number of German
troons on the Eastern front or Will be
compelled either to retreat or to MAKE
separate peace go,
Unless the United States shall, within
the next six months, put considerable
bodv Of troops in France, who will be aoie
vear hence to take part in the campaign
Of 1918. there is grave possibility thaV
France may collapse, owing to her great
,osses and to her now steadily diminishing
no,rer Unless the United States, IN
concert with Great Britain, can either ma
o method for dealing with the submarine
\ ~ Of revictualing England and supplying
Y rr.rcs and Italy with steel and coal, re-
snectivelv. there must be great posi-
b;litv not alone of the collapse OF france
.rd the withdrawal of Italy but OF
o-;eis in British food supply next sum-
mer which may make peace by negotia-
tion inevitable and leave Germany Il
rot completely victorious yet IN posi-
t;on 10 renew her attack upon CIVILIZATION
What ia even more perilous is that such
q peace would leave the control OF the Ger
man Empire in the hands of those VINO
have made this war, and made IT the KIND
Of struggle it has become
Had Russia been able to perform her
u.~+ II would have been possible for the
limited States TO have approached the war
with some elaboration. 1t would nave
49,, ,ossible to have given precedence TO
industrial organization and to have armed
our millions and trained them more slowly
d.. .his condition does not exist, and can
mot be expected 10 exist for another year
Lot us face the facts as they are To-
dav. despite their encouraging military
successes, the Allies are facing situation
.,b;ch Is serious and likely to become even
more serious. The war may yet be lost
unless the United States is prepared 10
..nd men 10 France promptly, to begin
without delay the organization OF ocean
transport and systematic conservation
Of the national food supply. Russia at
least temporarily out of the war; France
.,r,ost at the end Of her resources: Italy
still incapable of enduring successfully an
attack organized by German high COM
.nS such as destroyed Rumania and al
most captured verdun; Great Britain
struggling with a submarine blockade not
vet mastered and daily becoming more
ssrious-this is the picture OF the war SIT
uation as it now exists.
The United States can supply the de-
cisiye blow. 1t can supply the decisive
blow only If the American people put aside
all notions that their participation in the
MAR Is 10 be small or limited 10 contribu-
sons OF money or of food. We can win