The Fargo forum and daily republican. [volume] (Fargo, N.D.) 1894-1957, 1917-12-15

Rather more than q year ago, In
my Sunday article, expressed the
opinion that the war would last al
least four years. The recent progress
OF events satisfies me that we are Ia
see o struggle at least Ave years
long, and that no decision is likely
during 1918, nor until such time as
the United States can put a million
OF men on European soil, with proper
provision for maintaining this num-
Der on the firing line.
The conviction that the war will
go at least five years rests upon the
change in the situation resulting
from the complete disappearance of
Russia from the battle line. Allied
victory in four years was condition
ed upon the mutual efforts of France,
Britain, Russia and Italy, all operat-
ing at full power against the central
powers. There was a remote posi-
bility that a decision in favor Of the
allies might have been foreshadowed
IN the military events of 1917 had
Russia maintained this year the pace
she set last year. There was a posi-
bility of a decision next year as long
as Russian armies were able and
willing to hold their place and thus
retain German and Austrian forces
before them. But now Russia has
disappeared, Rumania must disap-
pear, and the war becomes a contest
between two groups Of powers, COM
paratively equal in numbers, and will
remain so until the United States
Is able TO break the deadlock by sup
plying sufficient numbers TO give her
allies the numerical superiority per-
manently.
The first effect Of the Russian de-
lection must be recognized in the
events which have taken place in
northern Italy and i'm northern
France. The Russian collapse has
provided Germany with a strategic
reserve which has been lacking to
her ever since her failure before
Verdun. This strategic reserve has
enabled her to take the offensive in
Italy and to carry on a counter Of
fensive before Cambrai-both OF
them more considerable offensive eff
forts than have been made by the
Germans in nearly two years.
In my judgment, the allies may be
compelled TO stand on the defensive
throughout the whole of next year,
while every sign points to a renewal
OF the German effort to achieve a de-
cision in advance Of the arrival Of
The main masses Of the United States
armies. German policy is clear. At
the beginning Of the war Germany
attacked France in the hope Of de-
stroying France before either Eng
land or Russia could come to the as
sistance of the French. She failed,
owing to the skill with which French
armies were handled and the devo-
ton with which the French soldier
fought. Thereafter Germany turned
her attention to Russia, seeking to
dispose Of Russia before France and
England could come to Russia's as
sistance. This Germany did accomp-
lish, breaking down the Russian ma
tional existence and eliminating Rus
STA as q factor in the war by the
great campaign which began at the
Dunajec and ended at Wilma in the
summer Of 1915. In the winter OF
1915 Germany turned to France again
and sought to dispose Of her before
Britain could arrive. Again she fail
ed in this. Today, with Austrian help,
she has undertaken to crush Italy
with the troops which have been re-
leased from the eastern front.
IL is necessary to understand the
German purpose. Ludendorf express
ed IL very clearly the other day when
he said that In modern war-that In,
in a contest between whole peoples
q military decision on the battlefield
Is unlikely. The real victory is att
tanned by the wearing out of the will
and the spirit Of the weaker nation
by the stronger. This has happened
in Russia This the Germans hope
will happen in Italy.
Now, we have to consider the pos
sibility that the Germans will pause
I'm their attack upon Italy at the
moment when they have forced the
Italians back upon the Adige, IL this
time comes. They may hope and ex-
pect that such a defeat will break
the spirit OF Italy and that the dis
integratton within the Savoy mon
archy will follow the lines of the dis
indignation in the Romanoff empire,
and that domestic revolution and
disorder will bring Italy to separ-
ate peace. as they have brought
Russia.
In such a case it is certain that
the next German operation will be
directed against the French. France
has borne the greatest burden of the
war. French man-power has suffered
more than that OF any other allied
country and nearly as much in pro-
portion to French population as Ger
many. There is an unmistakable
WEAKNESS in France, and the
Germans seem to be planning and
preparing an attack upon France to
follow the termination of their
italian campaign. The purpose of
this attack will be to dispose Of the
French before the United States can
bring its troops up. Such an attack
would have been impossible had Rus
IL
possessed no reserves sufficient for
such a task. She did not even possess
the reserves necessary for the Italian
adventure until the collapse Of the
Russians brought an end to all
danger on the eastern front.
In the course Of the present year
Germany has captured an enormous
amount Of war material from the
Russians and an equally vast amount
from the Italians. She has added
greatly to her stocks Of munitions
and OF guns. All these resources viii
enable her to make a desperate final
drive against France this winter or
next spring, while the Austrian
troops viii sufice to hold the gains
IN Italy. 10 check SarraiIs army in
certain Austrian, German and Hum
garian divisions Of picked troops for
the western campaign.
The population OF France. Italy
and Great Britain. including the
British white colonies, Is about equal
To that Of the central powers, with
out Turkey. while the native troops
of British and French colonies about
Offset Turkish numbers. But the
Italians can use only q minor per-
centage Of their numbers on their
present front, and are unlikely now
20 consent Co the transfer Of Italian
troops TO France, while the French
and the British are handicapped by
the necessity OF sending many OF