The Bridgeport evening farmer., 1917-01-09
HENRY CLEWS' /
WEEKLY Letter

~ L
witnessed a partial, clearing of the
uncertainties which marked the clos
ing months Of 1916. Such demorallz-
ing speculation in the war industrlals
as that which collapsed in DecemoeI
is NOT likely to be soon repeated
While there has been some recov-
cry from the recent break, there is
little expectation of former hlgn
lprices being soon attained. Peace or
no peace, war contracts for the
United States are permanently on the
3.wane. The first cheek, upon foreign
WAR orders was the warning Of the
Federal Reserve Board against Brit
Iish Treasury notes. Next came the
ability of Great Britain to manufac-
ture an immense increase in her own
munitions as well as portion for her
Alliesa also that hencefOrth Canada
will receive the overflow orders which
had been coming to the United States.
The most potent factor, however. in
discouraging war orders is the ire
vocable peace drift. Despite the fall
ure Of recent peace movements, de-
lspite the vigorous preparations on
4both sides for an even more bitter
struggle, and despite the maze of con-
flicting assertions and misleading in
formation, two facts become more
and more overwhelming, viz. on one
side the growing strength and aver
sion to- premature peace, on the
other supposed weakness and an 1p-
tense desire for peace. Undeniably
the drift towards peace is becoming
daily stronger. There Is much fear
that ruthless submarine warfare
may involve the United States; yet it
hardly seems credible that Germany
Twill deliberately destroy friendly rela-
lions with the strongest of all neu-
trails; the one nation that can be OF
4 priceless service to all belligerents.
German diplomacy must appreciate
! that there is nothing to gain and
much to lose by precipitating a breach
with the United States which could
only result in injury to herself. With
other belligerents, some friction must
! be expected while such strenuous con-
j ditions remain; but so long as those
at the head of affairs preserve cool
heads, no serious consequences need
be anticipated.
While the war outlook is somewhat
less confusing, there is ALSO some
clearing within the field of the do
nestle political affairs. Now that the
tide has turned, and the set of the
main current is determined, it is the
edties that wilr have to be chiefly
avoided. Among the, recently de-
veloped certainties is that the year
1877 will show a big deficit of I'M
doubtedly $400, 100000, and perha ps
{ $500, 900, 900; due to Mexico, prepar-
! edness, higher government pay, big
river harbor and public building ap-
] propriations and a general increase
in national expenses, caused by the
extension of governmental and So
! cialistic activities Congress has not
| yet revealed its intentions as to deal
ing with this problem, although it's
leaders are planning for accomplish
! ing new legislation before the present
Congress expires on March 4th.
Among the proposals are the extern
sion Of the income tax to smaller in
comes, an increase in liquor and to-
bacco taxes, restoration of some Of
the stamp taxes, etc. The plans,
however, that find most favor are a
bond issue and an increase in tariff
duties The Administration is. believed
to- favor a. low tariff upon tea, cof-
i Zee. sugar and wool, as y purely reve-
probably oppose this plan by the cry
vors revision upwards on some of the
textile schedules also a higher tar
3iff on chemicals and dyes in order
/ to protect native industries which the
! war recently started hereupon a large
scale. A considerable number of new
establishments and many millions of
capital have been launched during the
last two years to7 supply chemicals
and dyes formerly imported, but now
cut off. These commodities are pro-
duced here in sufficient quantities to
almost entirely satisfy home require
ments, and vast quantities OF products
! formerly wasted are now profitably
utilized, while industries thus estab-
1ished promise to be profitable and
make the country independent in time
of war, provided they are not-.over-
whelmed by foreign competition The
fear of dumping is probably exagger-
ated for political effect yet the new
i industries are able to present claims
for protection that will certainly re-
ceive serious consideration from both
parties. 1t thus develops that the
country is facing another period of
] tariff agitation. Tariff revision is al
ways a strong element of uncertainty
The effect Of peace drift abroad,
y anu tdIIl uiSCuSSlOil AT nOmc Will De
Ito hasten the readjustment Of bust
! ness to new peace basis. The war
] stimulus upon prices has not yet lost
/, it's momentum; it may in few, in
stances cause still higher prices, if
scarcity becomes more. acute or trans
portation facilities do not improve
Buf the waste and demands for war
Wilt soon diminish, il not end; so
that speculation for the rise on this
account must become more and more
dangerous as prices gradually come
back to the sway of natural condi-
tions. This does not mean that COM
, modities will fall to their former level;
on the contrary, a high average
promises to continue for some time
to come, because OF high costs of pro-
! duction and worldwide scarcity of
both commodities and labor, not to
speak of the tremendous new burden
expected is that prices, though high
in 1917, will be more reasonable than
in 1916. This would enable a better
sterilization OF business and serve to
add-HENRY CLEWS LETTER :.
materially restrain dangerous indus
trial imitation. In all essential re-
spects, business and credit are sound
and the impetus impaired by war
will keep home trade active for some
months to come in spite of the Difficult
ties incurred through readjustment.
Both the West and South are, ex-
ceAdingly prosperous as a result of