New Britain herald., 1917-01-20
Henry CLews
Weekly Letter
Especial to the Herald.)

Especial to the Herald.)
New York, Jan. 20.--The business
community has already settled down
to the conclusion that peace, though
within sight, Is somewhat remote and
that the wearisome struggle must con-
tinue for months more, and possibly
another year, unless Germany makes
unexpected concessions. Our security
markets are now adjusting themselves
to q new situation. The strictly war
industrials have partially but not en-
tirely recovered from the reaction
precipitated in December by opening
Of peace negotiations. These shares
are now being handled with caution
by spectators and investors alike,
since it Is recognized that the furore
therein was overdone, as was freely
predicted in my previous advices. An
other class of industrials, which bene-
fitted from but was not dependent
upon war orders has enjoyed more
marked recovery. This was especially
true of some of the steel shares. For
these it was we'll understood that
peace will not mean cessation of pros
perity. On the contrary, what is lost
in abnormal war orders will. pro badly
be largely offset by peace orders for
reconstruction work abroad, 1t being
fully realized that under the most fav-
orable circumstances Europe will be
unable for several years to come to
meet the demands for rebuilding cities,
railroads, bridges, cars. steamers, ETC.
The railroads of Great Britain, France.
Germany, Austria Hungary, Russia,
etc, have been overworked and under
repaired ever since the war began.
tn{~e, vrytl hn
obliged to make extensive repairs and
REFRESHMENTS outside as we'll as In
side the war zone. Their own steel
facilities will be tremendously over
taxed, and the only other satisfactory
source Of supply will be the United
States. 1t must also be rem embered
that important enterprises and con-
struction work in all parts of the
world have been held up by this great
war. Fully 100000 tons of ship
ping have been destroyed since the
war opened. Great Britain, with her
enormous shipbuilding capacity of
about a million and three-quarters
tons q year, will require several years
to make good her loss Of 100000
tons by war. British ships have suf-
fered hard usage, and repair bills will
be tremendous. while a larger tonnage
than usual will be scrapped for the
first year or two after peace Is estab-
lished American shipyards will con-
sequently have opportunities never
dreamed of. and for the next two or
three years at least foreign and do
nestle orders will keep them fully
employed. even without the expected
orders for the American navy or the
new policy of preparedness. Still an
~, hnInfl1 fa ia tho trade
tivity within the United States, which
insures a large home demand for steel
for railroads and other construction |
purposes. There Is good reason, there |
fore, to anticipate a period OF pro-
longed activity in the domestic steel |
Industry, but profits cannot be eX-
pected to continue on the abnormal
scale of 1916. since the competition Is
growing and costs Of production nave |
risen abnormally.
Interest of American manufacture |
ers in export trade is growing fast
Our past failures to win and hold |
foreign markets because Of our dis |
to meet foreign conditions. |
have taught us an effective lesson. |
One Of the first requisites to enlarge
ment OF American foreign trade is a
suitable banking system which,
though formerly lacking, is now be- !
ing rapidly supplied. The war pushed |
us into a position that would have |
taken decade to acquire; we have |
gained a foothold in foreign markets |
formerly dominated by Britain, Ger
many of the new movements such as |
be difficult to eliminate us. or
course. these countries will make |
strenuous efforts for their recovery; |
but fortunately we have great ad- !
vantages in enormous plants, nigh |
efficiency, greater adaptability and, |
as just said, improved banking facll- |
tiles. 1t is unnecessary for us to
have any fear Of so-called dumping, |
for Europe will have no surplus to
waste in this fashion for many years.
and costs Of production there must
remain high because Of the scarcity |
of labor, high taxation and other
handicaps, the legacy of the war.
Nevertheless, the United States Will
have to face II strong competition
through the increased efficiency Of
both labor and capital upon the
other side. British plants are co-or
dinating their forces and improving
their methods in n most energetic |
manner for the purpose of going aft
er trade when the war is over, and
labor in Great Britain has already !
recognized the situation by nearly
doubling its output and showing a
more intelligent desire to cooperate
with employers in maintaining British
supremacy. 4 similar policy must
be adopted in this country If we are
to win and hold a larger share Of
foreign trade. We need have little
to fear from the proposed economic ,
alliances which were discussed at the
late Paris Conference, for the reason
that these cannot be made to work,