Imperial Valley press., 1917-01-12
HENRY CLEWS' BUSINESS VIEWS.

The first week of the New Year witnessed par
tia clearing of the uncertainties which marked the clos
ing months of 1916 Such demoralzing speculation IN
the war ndustrias that which collapsed IN December
is likely to be repeated. While there mas been
some recovery from the break there is little eX
pectation of former high prices being soon attained
Peace peace contracts for the United States
are permanently the The first check upon Tor
eign war orders the warning Of the Federal Reserve
Board against British treasury notes. Next came the
ability of Great Britain to manufacture an immense IN
in her munitions as well as portion Tor her
Allies also that henceforh Canada will receive the over
flow orders which had been coming to the United States
The potent factor however in dlecouragng war or
ders is the rrevocabe peace drift Despite the failure
of recent peace despite the vigorous prepara
ons on both sides for an bitter struggle and
despite the of conflicting assertions and msead
inc information two facts become and more over
whening viz On side the growth strength and aver
sion to premature peace; the other supposed weak
ness and intense desire for peace Undenlably the
drift toward peace is becoming daily stronger There is
much fear that ruthless submarine warfare may involve
the United Sates yet it hardly credible that Ger
many will deliberately destroy friendly relations with the
strongest of all neutrasthe nation that can be OF
priceless service all belligerents Germany diplomacy
must appreciate that there nothing to gain and much
to lose by precptang breath with the United States
which could only result in injury to herself. With other
belgerents friction must be expected While such
strenuous conditions remain but long those at TIE
head of affairs preserve cool heads no serious conse
quences need be anticipated
While the war outlook is somewhat less confusing
there is also some clearing within the field of domestic
political affairs Now that the tide has turned and the
set of the main determined it is the eddes
that will have to be chiefly avoided Among the recently
developed certanes is that the year 1917 will show big
deficit of undoubtedly OO0O and perhaps $780,
100000 due Mexico preparedness higher government
pay big river harbor and public building appropriations
and general increase in national expenses caused by the
extension of governmental and socalistic activities c.
gress has not vet revealed its intentions dealing with
this problem although its leaders planning for &C
complishng legislation before the present Congress
expires March Among the proposals the eXten
sion of the income tax to smaller incomes increase III
liquor and tobacco taxes restoration OF some OF the stamp
taxes etc. The plans however that find most favor are
bond issue and increase in tariff duties. The Admit
istraon believed to favor low tariff upon tea SUI
fee, sugar and WOOL as purely revenue measure The
Republicans would probably oppose this plan by the cry
Of "a free breakfast table, and favor revision upwards
of the textile schedules; also higher tariff o
chemicals and dyes in order to protect native industries
which the recently started here upon large scale.
considerable number of new establishments and m,ny
millions of capital have been launched during the last
years to supply chemicals and dyes formerly imported
but off. These commodities produced here
in sufficient quantities to almost entirely satisfy home
requirements and vast quantities Of products formerly
wasted and proftaby utilized while industries thus
established promise to be profitable and make the codl
try Independent in time of war; provided they not
overwhelmed by foreign competition The fear Of dunp
ing probably exaggerated for political effect yet the
industries able present claims for protect
that will certainly receive serious consideration from both
parties 1t thus develops that the county is facing an
other period Of tariff agitation Tariff revision is al
ways strong element of uncertainty; but revision u
wards which is intended, will be less session matter
than revision downwards, which is possible at this
time.
The effect of peace drift abroad and tariff discus
sion at home will be to hasten the readjustment of bus
ness peace basis The stimulus upon prices
has not yet lost It's momentum it may in few instances
cause still higher prices if scarcity becomes acute
or transportation facilities do not improve But the
and demands for war will soon diminish if not end so
that speculation for the rise this become
more and dangerous prices gradually come back
to the sway of natural conditions. This does mean
that commodities will fall to their former level on the
contrary high average promises to continue for some
time to come because of high of production and
worldwide scarcity of both commodities and labor not to