The Washington herald., 1917-04-29
German Retreat Forced
Declared Army Experts
-Four Views of Present Allied Drive Concede Rapid
Move of French and English Spoiled
Teuton Retreat Plans

be so foolhardy as to try for a Vic
tory In the open against the combined
might of the British and French
armies. The German retreat Is there
fore regarded as a maneuver 20 gain
time by delaying the allied offensive
in the west, and also. by shortening
the German line, to release troops for
a projected offensive against either
Russia or Italy. There are students
OF the war who are convinced that
Russia VIII be the German objective,
for political as well as military rea-
sons. The Germans may hope by win
ming victories over armies that they
think will be disorganized by the
revolution to provoke a counter
revolution. or induce a state OF an
archy, either of which would render
Russia impotent or induce her TO
make peace. 1t is known that in Italy
an Austrian attack through the
Trentine upon the Venetian plain.
coupled with a German push across
the Isanzo, is expected in the middle
of May. when the Alpine passes will
be open, and by some the German re-
treat in the west is ascribed to the
desire to obtain troops for this ad-
venture.
Submarine Desperate Resort.
o. NNhCE DGleNe the Ger
mans. having given up hope of success
on land anywhere having turned
TO the submarine warfare to give
them victory. are subordinating land
warfare to their sea blockade" Their
armies are bartering space against
time. That is. by Withdrawing slow
ly before projected offensives, they
count upon keeping the German armies
intact and delaying indefinitely q de-
cisive blow. giving up territory, in
stead of mourning vast casualty lists
and dangerously weakening their
lighting strength. Each time the al
lies at the cost Of great time and
labor prepare mighty blow. the
Germans by Withdrawing cause their
enemies TO strike a blow in the air"
Meanwhile, the submarines go Oh
working. This theory assumes that
the Germans now think time is on
their side, and that they will be con-
tent to adopt a continuous defensive.
on all fronts. for the rest of the war.
II has superficial attractions, but does
not command such support as the two
views summarized above. The fall
lacies in the reasoning seem to be that
the Germans are starving faster than
they can hope to starve their enemies,
that no retirement can be continued
indefinitely without disaster, and that
German morale would not stand a pol
icy OF retreat, with no offensives and
no victories to cheer the people with
false hopes.
Pursuit Changed Plans.
4. Another group Of military men
contend that within the last few
weeks the whole German plan Of cam
paign has been upset by the British
and French armies, and that the Ger
mans are now drifting into a des-
perate position for which they have
no re nedy. The retreat in the west
It Is held. was commenced with a view
to going back to the ''Hindenburg" or
"Siegfried" line, from Arras to Laon.
thus disorganizing the coming British
offensive. On this line the Germans were
to make a defensive stand, resuming
trench warfare, with or without an
offensive against some other part of
the allied line. But Haig and Nivelle.
by a pursuit whose speed wrecked
the German calculations. prevented the
enemy from settling down on his new
line, first by promptly clearing him
of the Bapaume ridge, which he ex-
pected to hold for several weeks. next
by breaking the line before st. ouen-
tin and taking the new center OF the
German positions before the Germans
could prepare to offer serious resist
ance. Adherents of this view, which
most soldiers think Is too optimistic
are able to point to a mass of evil
dence in support Of their thesis, both
in German boasts during the early
part OF the retreat and in the strong
ly fortified positions taken along the
whole front with little or no resist
ance.