New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-03-24

The wide variations in stock mar
ket activity, accompanied by irregu-
lar movement Of prices, are variously
ascribed to technical conditions,
the Soldering influence exerted by
the rapid approach Of war;" and
ether things which sound interesting
and mean little. The real reason is
that there is such maze of conflict
ing market forces that it is extreme
ly difficult, if not impossible, to esti-
mate with anything like a reasonable
degree of confidence how the COM
bination of adverse and favorable
factors will work out in terms of
security prices. Consequently, trad
ers shift their positions frequently.
The fact is, nearly everybody is in
much the same state of uncertainty
as the anxious reader who asks for
a reply to these simple questions:
Is the stock market going up or
down? ! am told that war would
cause stock prices to rise and that
it would cause them to fall. Which
is right and why? What shall | do ?
To the last question, perhaps the
best answer would be to keep away
from the stock market, it being OBJ
vious that the query does not come
from truly Wall Street person.
The others are much more perplex-
ing.
There are numerous reasons why
a section of Wall Street holds the
opinion that the actual declaration
of war on Germany would be fol-
lowed by a rise in security prices.
Among others, there is the conten-
ton that the ending Of the period of
uncertainty which has prevailed for
so long would bring a return of pub
lie participation in the market on
broad scale. Also, it is believed that
if this country should take an active
part in the European conflict re-
vival Of the munitions business
which is now on the decline owing
to a dearth of orders from abroad
would ensue. Furthermore, it is ar
gued that the United States govern
ment would probably provide credit
for the Allies, along the lines sug-
gested in the recent speech of Gov
ernor Harding of the Federal Re-
serve Board. This, it is thought
would greatly stimulate our export
trade, which is also tending to fall
off.
On the other hand, there are those
who hold that, while it might stimu-
late trade to some extent, war is a
bad thing economically, and in the
long run would adversely affect val
ues. II is said, too, that the ca.
pacity Of our industrial plants is al.
ready pretty we'll taxed and could
scarcely be speeded up much more
Moreover, profits of industrial com
panies supplying the Federal gov
eminent would in all probability be
limited, voluntarily or by legislative
enactment. The action Of some OF
the large copper producers in sup
plying the government with guam
tity of that metal at about half the
price quoted in the open market is
causing reflection in stock market
circles. Then the possibility that in
the event Of war this government
might take measures TO reduce the
prices of war supplies sold to the
Allies is viewed with concern. And,
finally, there is the probability that
the government would provide for its
war expenses TO as great an extent
as possible by taxation, and that
would almost certainly mean the
lcvying Of an excess profits impost.
Therefore, 10 forecast accurately
what the market is going to do, it is
only necessary 10 reconcile all these
and a hundred other conflicting ele-
ments in the political and economic
fields, each with intricate ramifica-
| tons. That seems a rather difficult