The Washington herald., 1917-03-11
War Will End in 1917
Herald Writer Thinks
Balderston Predicts, However, that There Will Be
F.. Fourth Campaign-Impossible to
"Starve Out" Germany.

ern 'front.' and the Germans were thrown
back upon the defensive. This year I
expect important allied victories in this
theater Of war. and I think the Ger
mans will be driven back from their
whole fortified trench-line as far as the
as far as the Rhine. This
opinion, is given in the light of some
knowledge Of the numbers and munition
supply available In France this spring
What will happen upon the eastern
front depends upon political as we'll as
military factors, which would puzzle the
closest observer in London to analyze
now. But the feat achieved by General
Brusiloff last spring when he over
whelmed three Austrian armies might be
duplicated elsewhere and on a larger
scale without exciting surprise.
2. What will be the peace terms?
THE war will end in a draw" wrote
last spring. Theoretically. the war Of
attrition would result in complete Ger
man defeat il continued long enough, but
in practice such a war Is impossible, for
at Its conclusion all Europe would be
decimated and starving. and the lot Of
the vtctors as bad as that of the van
quished." That view I still maintain, but
the word draw" has been much abused
and needs explanation. President Will
sons peace without victory puts my
meaning more clearly.
do not believe either side can dictate
peace terms to the other. In my view,
the peace that is to be negotiated will
spell failure and Allied success, in this
sense, that 1 believe the major guilt of
the war rests upon Germany, and that
the Allies will obtain a peace which Will
spell complete defeat for German
schemes OF aggression.
Can Claim Success.
On the other hand, a German who since
he really believes that this is a war of
aggression against the Fatherland will
be entitled to claim that, from his view
point, Germany has succeeded, since the
designs he imputes to the enemies of the
Fatherfand cannot be carried out Each
side. then. can declare that the preda-
tory designs OF its neighbors have failed,
and that it has therefore won the war;
rival historians will squabble for genera
tons over this point.
Eleven months ago wrote: IF I am
right about the draw, the following are
pretty sure to be among the terms of
settlement:
Creation q an independent Poland as
a buffer state. with its own army and
neutrality guaranteed by Russia, Austria
and Germany.
Evacuation OF Belgium, with repara-
ton for the damage done.
NO lnQemnlIleS.
Evacuation Of conquered territory BY
both sides, excepting in the Balkans.
What will happen in southeastern Eu-
rope refuse to predict
Return Of the German colonies"
There seems no reason to withdraw
any of these guesses. But I have not
the hardihood to add others. Now, as
a year ago, 81 ignore the all-important
problems Of Alsace-Lorraine, Trieste,
Constantinople and Asia Minor, as we'll
as the Balkans. but am more inclined
to think now than then. that most, II not
all, of those issues will be settled In ac-
cordance with the wishes of the entente
In England, complete allied victory is
sometimes spoken Of as the White Peace:
German triumph as the Black Peace. My
view remains that the real peace wil be
a Gray Peace, but the shade Of gray will
be a light one, approximating nearer to
white than to black.
3. What part can America take In the
war?
If the United States declares war on
Germany our part in the struggle de-
pends upon our own wishes in some
measure. but it is also true II the war
ends next winter that America can take
no important part in the land fighting.