The Washington herald., 1917-01-01
GERMAN DRIVE ON WEST
Front is PREDICTION
Col. Feyler. Noted Swiss Expert. Fore
sees Gigantic Offensive.
By JOHN l.. BALDERsToN.
(cOpyrzht 1917. By the Mcclure Newspaper

'SSS7'e-S' ' c-s{....N
London, Dec. 16.-Germany is striving
for an early peace. as her recent formal
Ofrer which the entente allies have treat
ed with such contempt would indicate.
But she Is determined to win peace IN
Is1T on the battlefield II her enemies will
not consent to a draw at present, and Is
planning a series of gigantic onenAiVes
on a greater scale than anything ever
seen in war according to Col Feyler. the
Swiss strategist, who is now visiting
London. Col Feyler's writings on war
have placed him in the first rank OF mill
tary experts.
Il fully anticipate an early series OF
great ofrensives, possibly on several
fronts" Col, Feyler said. Italy Is al
ready awaiting the renewal of last sum
Der's Austrian attempt to break through
Possibly. indeed probably, further ef-
forts on a most gigantic scale may be
made to break the Russian front, to
capture Riga and smash the defenses OF
D~tnsk. Even big western offensive on
the scale OF the Verdun attack may be
In preparation. But in any case it seems
certain to me that Germany will >orce
the pace for all she is worth in 1917, and
rhat she will throw every available gun
and her last reserves OF men into the field
In the hope OF smashing down at least
one Of her principal adversaries and then
compelling the others to make peace.
woaId Avoid Long War.
y am led to these conclusions less by
study OF German strategy during the war
than by an inability to perceive either
any other reason for her latest activities
% any other hopeful prospect which she
skiu can entertain. She must snatch
speedy victory or succumh. A prolonged
~ar Is q war which Germany must lose
Hfndsnours and the whole German i'm
perial stafr fully realize that fact.
We shall know, some time in 1911,
uhsSher the central empires can sill dis
cover the necessary resources IN men and
munitions 10 crush any one OF their sd-
verSarieS Nr whether, as seems more
probable, the allied advantages in man
power and munitlou supply will result in
To- crushing OF the central empires
~ ts true thAt neither Of these objects
WI - alhisved next year. But even
EhOugh L. Far continues into 1918 we
shall al least know In the coming year
hoI II Is going to end
Ths issue Is fairly plain. particularly
II We institute a comparison between the
two champions who had to support the
first shock Of hostlities, France and Ger
many In these two and a half years OF
war. France has called up for her armies
one out OF ever SIX OL hcA poPAAaAAOll'
The drain on German manhood has been
at least as heavy. 1t is true the Frer IN
losses in 1914 were far heavier than the
German. but the adverse balance was
surely Tedressed during 1875 and 1916
more than redressed, In all probability,
and for two reasons. Germany has no
colonial recruitment on which to draw,
while France has raised several hundred
thousand colored troops in her African
possessions. And Germany has had TO
extend her various fronts IN far greater
proportion to her supply Of effect yes
than France. France ard Germany exert
today much the same propordonate
strength, as opposed TO each other that
they did at the beginning.
Large Margin of Reserves.
But the same cannot be said OF the
allies Of the two chief antagonists. Great
Britain has only called up one OF every
ten. Italy one out Of every eleven, Rus
sia one out Of every w enty OF the popu-
lation. Each OF these powers has conse-
quently a large margin of effective re-
serves left on which they can still draw.
The allies OF France can also count on
the active cooperation Of their smaller
allies. 1t is obvious that in man-power
the entente possesses an enormous ad-
vantage.
For what resources can Germany hope
for from her allies comparable to these
Neither Austria Hungary, Bulgaria nor
even the Ottoman Empire, possesses any
thing like the reserves OF men still un-
called to the colOrs in Russia, Italy and
Great Britain. Austria has suffered
heavier losses than any OF the great pow
ers. She called up men Of So long ago
whereas Russia has not yet called u
men Of 20. Bulgaria cannot raise sufH.
cient men, even by a mass levy, to old
even her own local fronts without her
man assistance. Turkey alone of al
Germany's allies appears able to spare
troops for outside operations, though II
Is by no means certain that she will be
able to spare many more.
German staH in Straits.
The parlous straits to which the Ger
man general starr has now been reduced
appear from what has been said. They
must necessarily strain every nerve, even
at the risk Of complete collapse. for their
solitary hope OF victory-and it must be
an early victory II defeat is to be avoid
ed. That Is why they are seekir Ia
force Polish troops to fill the gaps in the
imperial armies: that Is why they have
swept the Belgians into slavery. Hber-
ating German worl;men for military serv-
ice; that is Why they have established
national COnscription. even Of old men
end women. for war work. so the nuni-
uon factories may be finally combed
clean Of men fitted for fghting They
have been forced to adopt these expe-
dients because they realize that il the
war be prolonged indefinitely the allies
must inevitably win through their much
larger reserves Of man power"
In view OF Col Feyler's prediction Of
another German offensive in the west
II Is interesting to note that Marcel HUI
TN, the well-informed French critic, de-
clares a great attack will be re by
the crown prince between LASS and
the Ac.aaa h.