New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-02-12

me IOuOW'hg utSWtCH "uo N''O
ten by an Associated Press corTe-
spondent lCho had gone TO Copen-
hagen TO escape the German censor
ship.
Copenhagen, Feb. Little hope
or expectation prevails in Berlin
that war with the United States is
avoidable or that a modus vivendi
econciling the policies of the two
governments can be found.
There is now a desire on the part
OF the authorities and a vast bulk of
the people to avoid actual hostilities
in any way consistent with the gen
eral lines Of the present submarine
policy, but only in that way.
EACH U.BOAT CAN FORCE WAR
Accordingly, submarine command
ers, before they started on their
February mission, the Associated
Press has been reliably informed,
were instructed to take the safe side
whenever possible in dealing with
neutral vessels, particularly Ameri-
can. Enemy merchantmen, when
recognized as such, were ordered to
be sunk at sight, but neutral mer-
chantmen were to be warned when
such action, in the commanders
Judgment. was consistent. with the
object Of the campaign and the
safety of their own ships.
It was realized, however, after the
prompt and resolute stand taken by
President Wilson, that these orders
could only be palliative and only de-
fer. not avoid, an ultimate break, and
that if President Wilson stood by his
announcement that the destruction
of American lives or ships would be
regarded as an act of hostility a
casus belli must come sooner or later
probably sooner on account of the
number of Americans on enemy
ships and the discretionary nature
of the instructions to submarine
commanders.
WARNING NOT COMPULSORY
The commanders were informed
that. while the safe course toward
neutrals was recommended and de-
sired. they would not longer be sub
iected TO punishment for departing
from their former procedure OF
warning, if they found this advis-
able.
II is considered that the only pos
sibility Of the avoidance Of hostili-
ties would result from modification
of its standpoint by one side or the
other. and, so far as could be judged
from the positive declarations OF
Alfred zimmerman, the German
Minister of Foreign Affairs, and
other officials before the Associated
Press correspondents departure
from Berlin there was no probsbil-
itv that Germany would give way
this time or abandon the ruthless
campaign now started.
German-American relations again
and again have passed through
crises apparently almost hopeless
but this time the crisis is more diff
ficult. and even the optimist scarce
" can see any peaceful way out Of
the impasse.
HOPE FOR QUICK END
Chancellor Won Bethmann-Holl-
veg. the Secretary Of Foreign Af-
fairs. DR.. Zimmerman, and the
leaders of the so-called Chancellor
faction face the prospect OF an out
break of hostilities with the United
States with keen regret. They would
have been glad to continue the policy
Of good relations, even at a consid-
cradle cost TO themselves, but yielded
20 the necessity Of taking step de-
clared by experts as a short cut TO
ending the war, to which, otherwise,
no end was in sight.
How much Of confidence they eX-
press or is inwardly felt cannot, Of
course, be told, but Secretary Zim-
mermann, for instance, declared the
day before the news of President
Wilson's rupture Of relations came,
with every outward evidence Of con-
yiction. that if the United States
would abstain from interference and
give Germany a free hand, a few
months would sec the end Of the
conflict. Two or three months was
his first phrase, which he afterward
extended to perhaps six months
Despite the plain terms OF Presi.