New-York tribune., 1917-07-25
The Russian Situation


standing or phrasing. One could imagine
Thomas Carlyle writing chapter headed
"Chaos" and then directing at the Russian
Revolution that same tremendous sweep OF
rbstoric which through so many chapters
half eliminates and half vitalizes the
French Revolution.
But, after all, it is only for the prophet
to say what is going to happen in Russia
and for the historian who comes hereafter
to say what has happened. After three
or four months Of revolution the least that
the outside world can recognize is that It
understands nothing Of the Russian sit
uation.
II one Is to believe the present fact, the
fact vouched for by the Petrograd dis
matches. q new Alexander has set out TO
mount the Russian Bucephalus. All the
world with Allied sympathies hopes and
trusts that Kerensky may ride 1t, and there
Is the suggestion in his first words OF that
Napoleonic method which Carlyle called
the "whiff of grapeshot."
Yet, all that anybody can see is that the
prospect Of q successful Russian participa-
tion IN the military operations Of this year
or next Ia fading. 1t is no longer possible
for those who would have US misunder-
stand Russia physically that we might
sympathize with her morally to represent
Russia as reorganized and reborn by the
Revolution, or by the latest phase Of the
Revolution, or by the last, brilliant, de-
structive burst Of anarchy, into q first
class military nation.
1t is obviously quite different in Russia.
The little Russian offensive, which wax
ened so much hope, has had as It's morrow
rot victory, but disintegration. The Rus
sian soldiers who fought bravely at Koniu-
chy and won brilliantly at Kaluscz are on
the run. They pause only to utter new
and profound philosophic and moral specu
lations, which have so far failed to checs
the onrushing Germans. We see an
archy In the ranks, lack Of discipline, lacl
of proportion, the Transformation Of mill
tary procedure to direct primary snc
caucus methods, as fitting entity.
This is exactly what one should have ex
pected to happen. This is exactly wha'
most military observers did expect. Ever
when Russia did make her offensive tn,
\ other day, and there was the first fain
suggestion Of a success resembling the sue
cess Of Brusiloff of last year, there wa!
still an unmistakable feeling among al
military and most political observers thai
the thing was too good to be true; that Il
could not last; that its sole chance Of rea
success lay In the possibility that the Aus
trian disintegration had gone one steI
beyond the Russian, and that the Russian
attack might produce an Austrian collapse
before It fell itself.
All this Is over now. Unless all sign:
fail, we are going TO see a swift, sure
brutal, successful German drive into Rus
sia. We are going to see Russian resist
ance crushed and Russian armies disinte
grated, as the army facing the Strypa ha:
already been disintegrated. We are going
10 see German soldiers in the field reaI
the harvest sown by German spies snt
intriguers behind the Russian lines. Above
all, we are going to see Germany make on,
more colossal bid for decision and to i'm
press upon the minds Of men that she i:
uncomfortable. The next two or thre,
months may easily be filed with the his
tory of Russian defeat and German vic
tory. We may see the German armies il
Petrograd, Moscow and Kiev. The sol'
question will be 10 what extent Germany!
limited man power now will be available
for this tremendous military and mora
demonstration.
When the campaign of 1917 is over Ger
many may well again propose peace, as sh'
did last year after her great Rumaniar
success, this time with a Russian trump
far more considerable filing the minds anc
hearts Of men,, Then the question Of peace