The Washington herald., 1917-02-11

Russia into a separate peace and make
II possible TO turn west with aii the
es stern armies and deal q deadly blow
to England and France. seems TO be the
last chance Germany has to crush her
enemies, and good judges here think 10
VIII be attempted.
As has been said. there are l2s German
divisions on the west front On the main
eastern front against Russia there are
sixty-five German divisions. mostly of
inferior quality to those In the west, as
sisted by thirty-nine Austrian and two
Turkish divisions Twelve German -oivi-
sions have been operating against Ru-
mania, together with eleven Austrian.
four Bulsarian and two Turkish. a total
of twenty-nine divisions. In Macedonia.
opposing sarraiL were about twelve divi-
sions two weeks ago. eight or nine Bui-
gartan. two or three German and one
Turkish but at last report the Teutonie
allies here were being REINFORCED. sp-
parently at the expense of the Rumsnisn
group. Austria has thirty-three divisions
msssed against Italy. and there are about
thirty Turkish divisions in Asia
Future German Strategy.
The Rumanian retreat has gone 10 far
that the Rumanian front can be CON-
stdered merely an extension of the Russian
front. with Russian troops holding almost
Rumanian armies refit In the rear, and
u the eastern front from Riga TO the
mouth OF the Danube be considered as a
whole there are l35 divisions against
Russia, seyenty-seven .of them German.
This force. superior in numbers thouFh
by no means equal in personnel or num-
tionment to the German army In the west
may unertake an offensive on a large
scale in the spring, as well as operate
RGSs1 vt ~
winter. Some good judges here do not
think there will be drive against
Odessa, because victory on the Black Sea
would not be decisive. For the same
reason. they doubt the rumors that the
Germans will undertake a great offensive
In Macedonia. or against Cadorna on the
lsonzo. Victory over Sarrail would be a
hard blow to the entente, a smashing de-
feat Of Italy would be a great disaster.
but neither success would win the war
for Germany and to obtain either she
would have TO use up all or most Of her
remaining offensive power.
Speculation Of this kind leads nowhere
for the authorities disagree. and the
object Of the German stan will be TO
outwit the strstegists OF the other side;
to an analysis of the west front situation
more Importance attaches, because the
element Of surprise of strategicsl success,
Is not present. A succession of hammer
blows is the only kind of warfare possible
in France, and data exists in plenty to
, form an opinion as to the strength OF the
blows and the power Of the Germans to
resist them indefinitely while SO greatly
are the Germans outnumbered and out
gUnned in the west that the disastrous
attack on Verdun of 1916 will not tempt
the hsiser's generals to seek to redeem
their failure by an offensive in the same
thsster Of war.
Offensive in April.
One caIculabIe factor in the east. and
the only calculable one. is Of interest.
That is the weather. The weather will
make impossible that favorite dream OF
the amateur stratesist-an attack deliv-
cred by British. French. Russian ana
Italian at the same moment The at
Ia ks must begin at different times.
though 1t is likely enough that by next
summer fighting OF the heaviest kind will
be in progress on every front-a test
Germany has not had 70 meet.
In Flanders and the Artois. where the
British armies are. the enemy is mud,
and an attack on large scale is not pos
sible before April, and perhaps May. II
the spring is a wet one. Elsewhere on
the French front the ground dries moro
quickly. and the Germans were able to
attack toward the end Of February on the
Gion. Psrhsps Therefore. the hall in the
west will aCaIn be Opened h. the French.
The Russian front stretches through
eleven degrees Of latitude. and conditions
I'm the north differ from those in the
south. The ground is frozen now. ard
movement is possible over the northern
part Of this front but the mid-vinter Of
fensives attempted by the Germans IN
1915 and by the Russians last year Jailed.
the privstions OF the attacking troops
and the impossibillty OF digging trenches
In the hard ground captured proving too
much for the assailants. Whether any
important operations will be attempted
this year is therefore doubtful. Toward
the south the winter is niIoeT and with
normal sprirg rainfall fighting In Ga
Iicia can begin by the first OF May. What
Ig certain is that there can be no night
ing during the period Of the spring thsV.
which turns the country into a morass
and lasts throughout most Of April In
the south. and the last part of April and
first fortnight of May in the north.
Southern Russia has a milo winter,
and Mackensen. can continue his Besss-
ra biau campaign indefinitely II he de-
sIres to make good tke threat OF his mas
ter Hindenburg that the German army
in the east will not go into winter guar
ters this year
Conditions on the Italian front diner
widely. In the mountainous Trenttno
movement is impossible until the begin
ming OF Nav, but on the IsouZo front
the mud is less formidable than In
France, ana italian writers anticipate i'm
portant hghting early in April. or even
late in March.