davidaulloa/AmericanStories huggingface dataset:
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-04-01

strain upon the Allied transport in the re-
gion in which it is most difficult to pro-
tect it from submarine activity.
AS to the Italian possibilities, they are at
present too remote to discuss. II the Ger
mans plan an offensive against Italy they
will merely follow the pathway of the
Austrans last year, pathway which led
almost to the Venetian Plain.
Last of all, it remains to consider the
possibility that the German retirement in
the West is predicated primarily on the
notion that time has become the ally of
the Central Powers. If the Germans be-
lieve, as they seem to do, that their sub
marine campaign against Great Britain is
likely to succeed within the next six or
eight months, then they can afford to
avoid the great loss and the great strain
incident to a new battle like that of the
Somme.
Defensive Policy in France
Suppose, for example, that the Ger
mans, while making some successful Of
fensive either in Russia, the Balkans or
Italy, choose to follow a defensive policy
in the West. Then it is clear that they
can stand for a time upon that line to
which they are now falling back, the
Arras-Laon line. Three months hence,
when the Allies have brought up all the
machinery that they had along the old
front, the Germans may then retire to
the French frontier and hold the line from
Lille along the frontier forts to Mezieres
on the Meuse, and then along the Mouse
to a point of junction with their present
front. By laying waste the country in
front of them, as they have already in
their present retreat, they could delay
for at least two months more, probably
three, any Allied offensive on this front.
This would mean that there would be no
Allied drive in the West this year, unless
the British attacked in Belgium or the
French in Lorraine. Such tactics would
necessitate the evacuation of the most Of
France, but it would enable the Germans
TO shorten their front another forty miles,
and, granted that they were as successful
as they have so far been in the present
retreat, it would bring no military disad-
vantage.
Again, supposing that the war were
prolonged through next winter and Ger
man foods and materials held out, it
would be possible again for the Germans
to retire next year to a line from Ant
werp in front of Brussels through Namur
to Mezieres. This would necessitate the
evacuation of the seacoast of Belgium
and Of Zeebrugge, to which the Gertaans
will hold as long as they can. because il
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-04-01
Hindenburg Likely to Avoid Battle in
France and Strike at Petrograd or to
the South-Central Powers Now
Regard Time as An Ally
Bv FRANK H. SIMONDS
Author of 'The Great War;" "They Shall Not Pass
Copyright l9l7-The Tribune ASSOCIATION

the front between Arras and scissors have
been rendered useless. There is now be-
tween the front on which the preparations
for attack were made and the new front a
devastated area, varying from flve TO
twenty-five miles in depth, which is desti-
tute of roads and railroads and has been
turned into a blackened waste 1t VIII be
hardly less than two months, and 1t may
no three. before Allied preparations can be
made for a new attack on this front, II
Allied strategy determines TO attack here.
Tn. Immediate German Gain
We see then at once the immediate gam
for the Germans in their retreat. IL Is
necessary to recognize its meaning oo'n
negatively and positively. The Germans
have declined to fight another battle on
the ground they defended last summer.
They have conceded the Allied success OIL
the Battle of the Somme by retreating
from the positions occupied at the close oil
the battle, and they have thoroughly con-
frmed the British claim that hao the
weather remained favorable last year 1or
another month the results of the Battle
of the Somme might have been very great
if not actually decisive.
The German retreat was retreat forced
nv Allied cannon and Allied operations
ouite as much as was the retreat from 'he
Marine. 1t clearly establishes the Battle Oh
the sonme as an Allied victory. 1t plainly
sor,onstrates the enormous progress made
bv the British in the art of trench war anu
of British artillery in mastering German
defence.
Turning now to the other side we per
10 that the Germans have made re-
r,arkably successful retreat. They nave
naaanod from trenches which they have
held for over two years. retiring over .
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-04-01

Military events on the French front
during the week between March ~ ana
27 have followed the course that was 70
be expected and was outlined in my article
Of last week. The swift progress OF the
Allied advance ended by the oath. FROM
that day to the present there have been
slow and almost imperceptible gains, but
every indication points to the fact that tne
Allies have approximately reached the
Hindenburg line.
As il stands to-day the new front runs
diagonally southeast from the eastern SUI
urbs of Arras at Beauvains to the western
outskirts of st. Quentin at Savy, curves
slightly around st. Quentin and reaches the
Disc River at Moy; thence in right angle
south and southwest along the banks ol
the Disc overlooking La Fere, 10 Chaulnes'
and thence southeasterly again 10 Vne
vicinity Of Scissors. Save for loop
around the forest of ST. Gobain, between
La Fere and Scissors, the line mas III"
been completely Strengthened, all the oid
salients have been removed and sligh'
retirement on the part Of the Germans
between La Fere and scissors would make
the front straight from Arras TO SoissonS'
At the outset it is necessary to discuss
what has already been achieved by tne
German retirement. First Of all, the front
has been shortened by some forty miles,
which would mean saving OF not less
than 10000 troops for the Germans ana
At least twice as many for the Allies, VINO
hold their lines much more strongly. in
the second place, all the preparations
made by the Allies for spring drive on
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-04-01

wide front, withdrawing an army that can
hardly have been smaller than half mill
ion, with a minimum of loss, with skill
and thoroughness which will long com
mand the admiration Of the world, If 1t IS
not followed by any subsequent disaster,
and there is at present no suggestion or
this. The Germans have declined TO battle
and they have retired, but they have made
Il retreat which gives the lie to any charge
Of breakdown in their morale.
We do not yet know whether they have
elected to stand on the Arras-Cambral-St.
Ouentin-La Fere-L aon-Soissons line or not.
We do not know whether this is the famous
Hindenburg line so much discussed of late.
Sir Douglas Haig told me when ] was at
British Headquarters that the Germans
had prepared strong defensive line gong
between the cities just mentioned. SUD
stantially the Germans are now on that
line, although it may ne that 1t IS ma
torjally east of the British front at the
moment-say, five or ten miles. 1t may be
several weeks before we can say definitely
that the Germans are in the line they mean
70 defend this summer. 1t is more than
likely that we shall see a subsequent
Strengthening Of the line between Cambria
and Lille, which will cut off an ugly sa-
lent of which Arras is the apex. British
official reports in recent days suggest such
an operation. but il should be remembered
that this would only be one more detail IN
the whole Strengthening of the line and
would give the Germans strong, easily
defended position, extending from the
forts of Lille along the hills behind La
Bassee, behind the marshes above Douai,
behind the Scheldt between Cambria and
the heights north Of st. Quentin, along
the high ground between the Somme and
the Disc, behind the Disc from a point
north of La Fere TO the high land and for
est of st. Gobain, and thence on the
heights before Laon TO the Craonne Pa
teau. 1t is we'll 10 recognize that such a
line may easily prove to be as difficult to
dent or break as that line which held up
the British and the French from July OF
last year to February of this.
The Larger Strategy
Turning now TO the larger question OF
German strategy, we have TO consider sew
eral possibilities. First of all, it was fire.
ouently suggested in German official state
ments that the German retreat is leading
the Allies into a trap. Conceivably this Is
so. but it is exceedingly unlikely. The
classic trap of the sort indicated was that
into which Joffre led the German armies
ot the Battle of the Marine, when the whole
German food was caught between Paris
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-04-01

objective and with an ultimate purpose of
putting a new and heavy strain upon the
French, who have suffered far more than
the English. Verdun was intended to de-
stroy the resistance of France. A new
offensive in the Nancy region would have
the same purpose.
But looking still further aficld, it is rea-
sonable to conjecture that the German re-
treat in the West was the deliberate re-
fusal for battle on the French front, the
incidental surrender of thousand or more
square miles of French territory of no
military value for the purpose Of obtain
ing freedom of action elsewhere. The
position in the West had become difficult,
perhaps dangerous; to defend it would
require large number of troops and
would immoblize German effort on other
fronts. To me it seems most likely that
the Germans have executed retirement
in the West with a deliberate purpose of
postponing any possible Allied offensive
for two or three months at the least, and
intend to take the troops released by the
shortening of the line and employ the time
thus gained for dealing blow either upon
Russia, in the Balkans or against Italy.
That this attack is to be made against
Russia seems TO be the conviction of Rus
sian statesmen and soldiers, and Petrograd
has very frankly forecast an attack to be
made upon the Russian capital and in
tended to put Russia out of the war.
The Russian Possibility
1t is we'll to remember that such an at
tack could not be a consequence of the re-
cent Russian revolution, because wherever
the Germans mean to attack, they have Of
necessity been preparing for the last six
months, for the modern offensive requires
the most elaborate preparations and a
long period Of preliminary activity. We
may see that the conditions in Russia, out
of which the revolution grew-condjtions
we'll known TO the Germans and in large
measure induced by them-may have led
the, Germans to decide to attack Russia.
They might have calculated that Russian
DISCRIMINATION was such that the attack
upon Russia would be most profitable, but
their decision was necessarily made not in
March, but not later than the beginning
of last winter.
An attack upon Salonica would yield
immediate profit. The Allied hold upon
Monastir is of the slightest, and do not
think any one questions the ability of the
Germans, if they chose to send the troops,
to drive Sarrail's army back upon Salon
lea, although the actual capture of the city
would be rather improbable. Such an at
tack. however, would put q tremendous
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-04-01

and Verdun and attacked on its TANKS; but
the German lines at that time curved very
deeply into France, thus exposing the
TANKS, whereas the present Allied advance
has merely Strengthened the Allied front
and the TANKS rest solidly upon the old
trench lines before Arras and scissors.
Again, the advance of the Allies so far
has not exceeded twenty-five miles at any
point, and is much less at many, which
leaves very little ground for manGuvre,
and under threat it would be simple for
the Allies to retire to their old positions,
which remain intact, while the Germans
would be faced with the necessity to ad-
vance over country which they have de-
yastated and roads which they have de-
stroyed.
Personally, | do not think that there is
much likelihood of the springing of Ger
man trap between Arras and SCISSORS. If
the Germans should retire to the French
frontier then there would be a very wide
expanse Of ground for maneuvre. The
Germans would be close to their unde-
stroyed communications, while the French
and the British would have advanced over
sixty or seventy miles of destroyed coun-
try and would be handicapped and might
conceivably come to grief, but this is pat
emily a long way off.
An Offensive in the West?
Discarding the theory that the Germans
are leading the Allies into trap on the
present front, there remains the possibility
that they have prepared a colossal often
sive either between Arras and the North
Sea, between Scissors and Verdun, or be-
tween Pont-a- Mousson and the Vosges,
in front of Nancy. No sign of any such
movement or movements is TO be found in
ANYTHING that has come to us recently,
apart from Dutch reports of huge troop
movements in Belgium. And it seems to
me unlikely that the Germans will now
make such an attack between the North
Sea and Arras, because their retirement
has already released one large British
ermy and because the British already have
a superiority in numbers and guns which
can hardly be challenged by the Germans
and is conceded in the German official re-
ports. AS TO a possible attack between
Scissors and Verdun, which is in Cham
payne, this is conceivable, but is rendered
unlikely by the enormous work Of prepa-
ration done by the French in this region
for their attack of 1915, and the great de-
fensive works that have been erected. Ny
own judgment is that if the Germans are
preparing to attack in the West, it seems
to me reasonably likely they will attack
on the Lorraine front, with Nancy as an
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-04-01

is a convenient base for submarine opera
tions. But it would again entail no serious
military loss. 1t would once moro very
greatly shorten the German front, thus
saving men, and it would not bring the
Allies within dangerous distance Of the
German frontier.
Such programme as this may or may
not be within German calculations. What
desire now to point out is that methodical
retirements may be carried out from each
of the lines which the German has pre-
pared in France and in Belgium, IL it be
the military policy of Hindenburg to avoid
battle in the West, as he has now. tenn
porarily at least, avoided renewal ct
the Battle of the Somme.
And present indications do seem to point
toward determination on the part Of the
Germans 10 avoid battle in the West this
year, although it remains conceivable that
they will attack either in. Flanders, Cham
payne or Lorraine. To Judge from what
the German papers are now beginning TO
say, it would appear that their policy is
to retire in advance Of decisive battle
with their most dangerous enemies--the
British and the French-and mako their
chief effort not against Russia, or In the
Balkans, but actually TO rely upon their
submarine campaign, II not to bring Eng
land 70 her knees, at least to bring her to
the point where she will consent to nego-
tiated peace.
Strategy Of the Unexpected
1t is we'll to remember that we have az
yet no hint Of the actual German strategy.
apart from the possible evidence of retire
ment between Arras and Scissors. We
may fairly accept this retirement as an
evidence Of Allied success in the Battle Of
the Somme, but we cannot see in IL as yet
any evidence of the breakdown Of German
morale or the weakening of the defensive
power of the German in the West-that
is, weakening which points TO an imme.
date and decisive ending Of the war.
We have just seen the first move in the
greatest campaign the world has ever
known. This move has been made by the
Germans. Conceivably it is to be followed
now by German blow in the West or BY
an Allied offensive between Arras and
Ypres; between Rheims and verdun; be-
tween Pont-a- Mousson and Epinal. The
present indications seem to me 10 point
TO German offensive in the East or in
the South. and not in the West. Beyond
that no one can go at this time. and the
chief element in strategy is to strike where
the blow is least expected, doctrine to
which the Germans have been consistently
faithful
Evening capital news. (Boise, Idaho) 1901-1927, 1917-01-25
GRANDMOTHER KNEW
There Was Nothing So Good for
Congestion and Colds
as Mustard

But the old-fashioncd mustard-ptaster
burned and blistered while it acted. You
can now get the relief and help that
mustard plasters gave. without the plas-
ter and without the blister.
Mustcrole does it. 1t is a clean,
white ointment, made with oil of
mustard. 1t is scientifically prepared,
so that it works wonders, and yet
does not blister the, tendcrest skin.
just massage Mustcrole in with the
finger tips gently. See how quickly
it brings elief-how speedily the
pain disappears.
Use Musterole for sore throat, bron-
chitis. tonsilitis, Group, stiff neck,
asthma, neuralgia, headache, conges-
ton, pleurisy, rheumatism, lumbago,
pains and aches of back or joints,
prains, sore muscles, bruises, chill
olains, frosted feet, colds of the chest
1t often prevents pneumonia).
Evening capital news. (Boise, Idaho) 1901-1927, 1917-01-25
NEW PLYMOUTH NOTES.

New Plymouth, Jan. 26.--Miss Irma
Lingle, whose betrothal to Carol Cox
was recently announced, was the in
SEPARATION for pretty shower given by
Mrs. A. B. Minalier last night. Fol-
lowing closely upon the announce
ment of the betrothal comes the news
that Miss Lingle and Mr.. Cox will be
married in Boise Friday evening of this
week. After a brief honeymoon In the
capital city the young people will re-
turn to New Plymouth to make their
home.
Miss Alma CroWther has been en-
gagged by the board of education to fill
the position of sixth grade teacher in
the public school. which was made
vacant by the resignation of Miss
Hartley who returns to Moscow next
week to finish her course at the uni
versity. Miss Crowther taught five
years at Fruitland and comes highly
recommended to her new position.
Once year the husbands and faith
ers of New Plymouth are admitted in
to society for one evening. much to the
delight of few but to the many 1t is
looked upon as a great trial. The
ladies of New Plymouth recently decid-
ed after much thought and discussion
that the Bringing UP of Father"
should receive more of their attention
during 1917, than 1t has heretofore,
hence the big function of Thursday
evening at the home of Mrs. H. II.
Hamilton. when between 40 and so men
will be the guests of equally that
many ladies. All kinds of games in
which the ladies excel, but which the
men have never seen or even heard Of
will be feature of the evening. The
ultimatum has gone forth that high
collars and cuffs will be correct for
that evening and that crops, ditch
troubles and the weather are subjects
to be tabooed. The pleasant affair Is
being arranged by the ladies of the
east side. Later the ladies of the west
side will entertain.
Roy Baker has resigned his position
of teacher at Claytonia and leaves
soon to enter the state normal at AL
bion.
Mr.. and Mrs. J. w. Wilton of En-
nett, Mrs. Carrie Wallace Of Milford,
Iowa, a daughter who is visiting at the
Wilton's, were the Sunday guests of
Mr.. and Mrs l.. j. Sierer.
Miss Ella Meyer, who has been tenn
porarily employed at the Golden Rule
store has been engaged by Manager
Gilkerson to fill the position resigned
by Miss Lingle.
Evening capital news. (Boise, Idaho) 1901-1927, 1917-01-25
WATER STATION IN DANGER.
PLAN ORGANIZATION OF
GOOD ROADS DISTRICT

New Plymouth. Jan. 25.-Preliminary
steps were taken here Monday after
noon by number of the promine at
farmers in this section for the purpose
Of creating a highway district out of
the present good roads district. For
the last year considerable dissatisfac-
ton has been expressed over the dis
tribution Of road funds. some roads
having no work done upon them at all,
or at best very little, while other roads
in the valley were put in first class
condition. Many excuses and expla-
nations have been given for the dis
Evening capital news. (Boise, Idaho) 1901-1927, 1917-01-25
CLUB WOMEN OF THE
COUNTY WILL VISIT
THE LEGISLATURE

The regular mld-winter meeting Of
the Ada County Burbank Federation Of
Women's Clubs will be held Friday at
the Columbian club house. The morning
will be spent at the legislature, and IN
the afternoon the primary part of the
program will be the discussion of the
bills which the state federation of clubs
has Endorsed. Mrs. L. B. Green Of
Mountain Home will be present and
lead in the discussion. Tho morning
visit to the legislature Is regarded a
particular pleasure as many of the out
of-town members will make this their
only trip to the legislative halls during
tho season.
A luncheon will be served at the Co
lumbar club house in which 1t IL hoped
that the visiting club women in the
city will respond to the general invita-
ton which has been given through tho
press and be guests. Each member of
the Burbank federation is asked to
bring portion OF the refreshments as
the dinner has been arranged on this
plan.
In the program Of the afternoon there
will be a round table in which each
club Is asked to participate and to re-
cite the most important thing which
her organization has achieved during
the year. There will also be short
talk illustrative Of the life of Ida M.
Tarbell. who will speak In Boise
March 4.
Evening capital news. (Boise, Idaho) 1901-1927, 1917-01-25
WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER THE COUNTRY

Low pressure prevails in western
Canada and southwark over Montana,
and In the Atlantic states and lower
lake region. Elsewhere the pressure is
high, the highest readings being still
in Neveda. Precipitation has occurred
In the north Atlantic states and at a
number Of northwestern stations.
Warmer weather prevails in the north
west and along the Atlantic coast.
while In parts OF Texas, New Mexico.
Illinois, and eastern Canada the tenn
perature IL much lower.
LOWEST TEMPERATURE ELSE
WHERE-Boston, 2s; Buffalo. %; Chi
cago, s.; Denver, "a: Des Moines. g.;
Evening capital news. (Boise, Idaho) 1901-1927, 1917-01-25
FOUR HAVE NARROW ESCAPE
FROM DROWNING IN RIVER

Weiser. Jan. 25.-Four people came
near drowning on the Oregon side Of
the Snake river bridge here late sun
day night when the horse they were
driving leaped from the bridge ap-
proach into the river below. Miss Elva
COPYRIGHT, Fred Burrows and Harvey
Grim were dragged out after they had
been pulled down under the broken leo
Of the jam. Miss Anabel Hunt escaped
by jumping. suffering only slight
wetting. Burrows suffered q fractured
wrist and cut over the eye. The others
suffered only from the effects Of tho
icy waters.
All are well known and popular
young people Of Weiser, who were out
for a sleighing party. The ice jam In
the river cracked and frightened tho
horse just as the party was making
the approach to the bridge. Horse and
sleigh were finally rescued from the ice
choked river.
Evening capital news. (Boise, Idaho) 1901-1927, 1917-01-25
STOPS ANY Cold
IN A FEW HOURS
"Pape's Cold Compound
Opens Clogged Nose and
Head and Ends Grippe.
Relief comes instantly.

Relief comes instantly.
A dose taken every two hours until
three doses are taken will end grippe
misery and break up "a severe cold
either in the head, chest body or
limbs.
1t promptly opens clogged-up nos
trils and air passages in the head,
stops nasty discharge or nose .:-un-
ming, relieves sick headache, dullness,
feveI1shness. sore throat. sneezing,
soreness and stiffness.
Don't stay stuffed up! Quit blowing
and snuffling! Ease your throbbing
head! Nothing else In the world gives
such prompt relief as "Pape's Cold
Compound" which costs only 25 cents
at any drug store. 1t acts without as
sistance, tastes nice, causes no incon-
venience. Be sure you get the genu-
ine.--Adv.