The Washington herald., 1917-12-30
Western Front Shaking,
Germans Must Fall Back
Analysis OF War as Whole Shows Enemy
Strong in Man Power, but Handicapped
by Weakened Line in France
BY JOHN LLOYD BALDERsToN.

by weakened ]
ny JOHN LLOYD BALDERsToN.
lCoyright. lsis. b. the Mcclure Newspaper
Syndicste)
London. Dec. L-This IL an attempt.
as the old year draws to o close.
to survey the military outlook for
the 1913 campaign in the war against
Germany. There are many incaicu-
liable factors in the problem, and
nothing II more rash than to proph-
esy In war, but the writer has
been in touch. since early In the
war. with the highest military and
naval opinion here. and can claim
for many statements made below
about the situation on the various
fronts that they arg based upon facts
and figures whose publication would
not be possible.
To take first the war at sea. There
appears no reason to suppose that
even with the addition OF the United
States navy to the English, French
and Italian fleets, the New Year will
be marked by great feet actions.
Mines, submarines and shore bat
tCtAC6 tuahS dN OhCHSiNc d6dlnbN LAiS
enemy no less difficult than before.
and IT IL not thought likely that
the German high seas feet viii come
out and face another Jutland.
The submarine warfare, upon which
less anxiety. Counter-measures have
been attended with such success that
a repetition Of the black weeks last
an T. ~
100000 tons Of American shipping
promised in 1918 should more than
make UP for all the ships the u
boats can sink during the year, at
the present rate OF destruction. The
fall In the number OF ships sunk
in certain waters. due to the pa
trolling operations of United States
warships In the past four months,
ment in this region should be more
than maintained.
Russia the Enigma.
Turning to the war on land, the
great enigma that makes difficult any
estimate OF the course of operations
in 1913 In Russia But, with or with
cut Russia, operations on the West
front will pursue their implacabIe
course, II. as military authorities are
now confident, the West front is i'm
pregnable against any conceivable
German offensive undertaken with
| troops brought from the East. The
| Importance OF Russia in the grand
| strategy Of the war now Is not that
her detection might lose the allies the
war. butt hat, II Russia releases ~
enemy divisions for other fronts, II
will take the allies much longer tc
| win 1t.
1t is Oh the West front that the wal
| must be won. The number of British
and French divisions available for op-
! erations in the principal theater In
1918, the quantity of allied guns and
shells and aeroplanes, the strength oi
the American forces which 1t is esti,
mated will come into play before the
end Of the years campaign, cannot
be hinted at.
There are about l47 German divisions
: now on the West front. Including al
the reserves, troops in depots, garri'
son troops, In fact all Germans ir
France and Belgium, the total num-
Der Of the invading army this wintel
is estimated at ZOO, 900 men. The
number of German sildiers on all thu
fronts and at home, not includins
boys younger than IS, many Of whom
will be called up within the mex
year. is thought to be 5,5oO.0oO.
Reserves Are Exhausted.
The reserves OF German man power
with the exception Of the growing
boys, have been exhausted. German
authorities themselves admit that tn
"combing out" process In industry ha
gone to the last possible extreme, an,
that the substitution of prisoner la
bor, and labor forced from the un
willing slaves in the occupied terri
tories, cannot be carried much fur
ther. Men up to the age of 81 hav
now been put into the army, an,
above that age not even German or
SANITATION can make men able {
stand the hardships OF the front
There remain the boys, Germany
last reserves.
Within the last few months tn
class Of 1913 has been called to tn
colors. This means that 10000 boy
who would attain their 10th birthday
If they were alive. 1913. were sum
moned' for examination, and unde
the present low standard Of physica
fitness required from German recruits
some 10000 Of them are being sent t
the war. Those 10000 boys. at pres
ent. are not yet nineteen. Some o
them have already been identified o.
the western front The class Of 1s9
composed Of $4,000 lads not yet eight
cen. Is now being examined and class
flied for service. Some of them ma
be Under fire by next spring.
These facts show clearly enoug
that Germany is straining every nerv
to keep her armies at full strength
but they also show. unfortunately
that she has 30 far been successful 4
doing SO. Optimistic stories that tn
Germans are running short Of me
are not true. On the West from
there will be no shortage Of enemie
in 1918. even II the Russians stay i
their trenches.
On Eastern Front.
On the main eastern front agains
Russia. Germany II maintaining som
1 uo. 0ivap xutfh Dasf T,,pior Va