New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-08-05
Saturday, August !, 1917

Estimates Of the war bill Of the
United States in the current fiscal
year run into figures amazing even
in these days when people are accus-
toned to thinking in billions. Appar-
emily, our war expenditures for the
period ending June 80 next, entirely
apart from loans to our Allies, will
be at the approximate rate Of a
billion dollars every thirty days.
Merely to raise so much money or
credit as that in twelvemonth is a
task of vast magnitude. 1t is the
greatest financial problem in his
tory. Nevertheless, it will be solved,
probably with less difficulty than
could have been imagined even few
weeks ago.
Announcement of the extent Of
impending financial operations Of
the government is leading to read
justment Of ideas concerning related
problems, since they obviously sug-
gest that the readjustment Of bust
ness to war will have to be much
more drastic than had been antici-
pated. The war bill amounts to about
20 per cent of our estimated national
income. Put in another way, the gov
eminent will require for war 20 per
cent of the product Of American
labor, for in the final analysis what
the government really spends is not
money, but goods. Twenty per cent
may be an overestimate; but cut 1t
in half, if you like, and the fact re-
mains that a farreaching shift of
labor now utilized in producing
goods for private consumption is in
evitable. 1t is extremely doubtful if
the American people ever saved in
any year per cent of their product,
or, for that matter, 2 per cent. Yet
they must now save the labor
wherewith to fabricate the equip
ment of an army and navy, and this
in the face of a decrease in man
power available for the production
Of goods that will in the course of a
year amount to not less than a
million workers. It is gigantic
task, but no one doubts that it can
and will be accomplished. AS yet,
however, people have scarcely real
lied how great readjustment in
cur economic life will be necessary
to win through. 1t is certain that
the goods which the government con-
sumes must be made available for
the most part through curtailment
of private consumption of other
things. Production is now at, or
practically at, the maximum Of ex-
listing facilities and labor supply.
Since the number of workers will be
greatly reduced, it would be re-
markable if the production of all
goods should be maintained at the
present rate, let alone increased.
There has been vague talk OF cur
tailment of luxury consumption and
a sort of general understanding that
people are economizing, but little
real progress appears to have been
made so far. Commercial agencies
whose reports are dependable have
not recorded any important changes
in this respect. Business in luxurles
does not seem to have been impaired
in fact, the only noticeable change
in the business situation since we en-
tered the war is hesitating tendency
engendered by uncertainties regard
ing the price fixing and taxation leg
islation. There arc exceptions, nota-
bly, the curtailment OF railroad
passenger service, but they are few
and far between. Despite statements
frequently heard that the readJust-
ment Of business to war conditions
is well under way, the fact is, the re-
adjustment has hardly started. 1t
will come, and come before long,
however, for the simple reason that
it can neither be avoided nor de-
ferred. Taxation will help it along,
but it will take something greater
than that to bring about the desired
change. People will commence to
economic only when they have been
thoroughly "sold" on the war.
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