New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-07-29
u. S. and Some of Allies
Hope in That Way to
Shorten the War
Italy Favors Big Drive
Experts Figure Offensive in
Southwest Would Cost at
Least 100000 Dead
IFnnnr The Trhune Burraul


Washington, July 2s.-There is ex-
cellent reason for believing that Amer
lea and some of the Entente Allies
consider it possible TO detach Austria
Hungary from the Germanic alliance
and that their diplomacy is influenced
by that consideration.
The view held by them was said in
a semi-official quarter to-day TO be that
the elimination of Austria-Hungary
would make necessary the abandonment
Of Germany by Turkey and Bulgaria
as we'll, and leave Germany faced by
sure annihilatitn, with no alternative
but surrender without conditions.
There was declared TO be another
opinion in the Allied group, Represented
chiefly by Italy, with considerable
French sympathy, that the only practl-
cable means of inducing or compelling
Austria Hungary to lay down her arms
is successful military offensive oy
Italy. This opinion characterizes me
opposite belief that Austria can be de-
tached through negotiations as peing
SuDStantlateu ny HobhiHs HN-~
than the fabric Of dreams.
A military expert with diplomatlc
experience and information saiu TO-
day: Ut,
"Italy has sufficient soldiers. guns
and ammunition for maintaining neT
lines inviolate. but has neither coal
nor iron in sufficient quantities TO war
rant the initiation Of an offensive, with
the assurance of being able to sustain
IL such as would smash the Austrian
defence and crumple up the Austrian
lines.
Italy Could Lose Millions
"Italv has 100000 fully trained
troops prepared for such an effort. The
cost has been calculated, and 1t is no
cxaggeration to state that an offensive
ON the scale necessary to force Austria
to ask terms would cost Italy 2,0OO.OOO
men in killed. This estimate is not
magnifed. The Hermada alone would
cost 100000 men, and not less than
500 900 men would have to be sacri-
feed to capture Trieste.
Amazing as it seems, Italy can en-
gage in this gigantic operation ana
sustain these enormous losses with
out any deleterious effect upon her
man power. That is easily demon
strated. The birth rate alone is very
high, but add TO that the return OF
Italian amigrants plus the total pro-
hibition Of emigration from Italy dur
ing the war, and it is readily seen that
Italy can spare 100000 men and more
in killed and still be in as favorable
position as regards population as she
was at the commencement OF the war.
Before the war emigrants were leaving
Italy at the rate of 100000 year; the
war has been In progress three years,
and during that time 100000 subjects
who normally would have left the coun-
try are still in it.
Financially, economically, mill
tarily, and even in some ways pollti-
cally. Austria is entirely dependent
upon Germany. Her diplomacy is sub
ordinated to German influences and d.
rection. 1t is, therefore, difficult to
conceive of how Austria might be
separated from Germany by anything
except the naked necessity imposed by
military defeat.
at is possible, according to reli-
able information which has been dis
closed after discussions among the Al
lies. for the Austrian lines TO be
broken. The task of breaking them is
Italy's. It is the conviction of many
military minds that the war will not
be won within two years on the West
ern front, as the present alignment OF
forces and the prospects held out by
the Allies do not promise that neces-
sary preponderance of force which is
essential for an attack upon fortified
points.
Italian Offensive Needed
IAN Italian offensive of the proper
tions considered, however, would com
pei Germany to withdraw great num-
bers of troops from the West, and this
weakening would favor the efforts Of
the Anglo-French armies. The posi-
bilities Of the Italian offensive are in
dicated by the fact that at the ores
ent time there is not single Austrian
soldier, except prisoners, on Italian
soil; all the Italian fighting is con-
Quoted upon enemy territory, and the
measure of advance Italy's armies Rave
made is the measure of her resources
for sustaining her offensives.
1.-THE two vital needs for the oren-
sive proposed are coal and iron. For
months past Italy has been able to
obtain them in only very limited guam
titles. She is dependent upon America
for them. The purchases may be made
in America, but tonnage is denied, or
rather there is a competition among
the Allied group of belligerents them
selves which imposes great restric-
tons upon some Of them, including
Italy"
II was rumored to-day that Efforts
had been made by some of the Entente
powers to persuade the United States
TO declare state OF war with Ars-
tria. in order that the earlier defeat
of Germany might be effected through
more hearty assistance to Italy on III,
part of America in the matter of both
ships and money. No confirmation Of
the rumor could be obtained in au-
thoritative diplomatic and Official
quarters. II was stated, however, that
the United States has sufficient Ton
mage TO meet the immediate and vital
demands Of the war, including I.aly's
requirements.