Weekly journal-miner., 1917-01-24
TRADE OUTLOOK REVIEWED BY
 HENRY C[EWS
EVEN IF PEACE COMES BANKER THINKS THIS COUNTRY SHOULD EN- JOY PROSPERITY.
(From Sundays Oaily)


 in letter issued by the banking house of Henry Clews of New York, and the future treated in a compre- hensivc manner, as follows:
 The stock market has not yet fully recovered from the peace note effect. During the interval there was very considerable rally from extremely low prices, but no really permanent recovery. It is quite apparent that the losses thus incurred took of the edge from the bull market and crip- pied many speculative operators on the long side. It Is equally evident that larger owners of securities have not been ready buyers on the decline, but preferred selling on the rallies, although support generally developed whenever decided weakness occurred. Unless appearances are misleading, there has been persistent inside liqui- dation in industrials, especially the war group, upon the well-grounded assumption that there will be no such volume of munition orders in 1917 as in 1916, nor any such profits. There is no denying the fact that Wall Street is disposed to discount to some extent an early peace. As already stated in these adviccs the mind of the world has distinctly about faced, ." war. The Central Powers claim they desire an end of war, for exhaustion and hunger are surely undermining some of the belligerents, and human endurance IS marking the limitations of this ruthless destruction. The AL lies in reply to the Central Powers have intimatcd the general basis upon which they will discuss peace. Ger many may not listen to such pro- posals Mediation by ncutrals at this time would be offensive to the En- tente and a failure: so the war must go on some time longer, or until both sides come nearer together on terms Great Britain evidently does not an- ticipate an early end of the war, judging by the fact that she is about to float another huge lean, the biggest iii history; no limit having as yet been placed upon its extent Never theless, the growing desire for peace is becoming more general on both sides and will hasten its consumma- ton, which may not be many months away and Is likely to come when least expected.
 The cessation of war orders which gave such an impetus to prosperity in the United States would in any event have come ere long as a result of the growing independence of the Allies in munition manufacturing. Great Brit ain was already practically producing all her own munitions, and partially supplying her Allies: while only the other day a British munition firm made bid for supplying this gov ernment with shells for one of our own dreadnaughts at figures much under American prices. The amount of this contract was not particularly important, but the difference in prices was rather significant in view of the necessity for increasing our future export trade. Less than half of the increase in our exports during the last fiscal year was due to munition orders, which in the mass constituted ports. The establishment of peace l would reduce recent abnormal ship | ncnts of automobiles, horses, mules, . leather, copper, etc, but these losses l would be partially offset by increases ! in cotton, petroleum, steel products ] fer reconstruction purposes, machin- cry, and the like. What the net losses would be to her export trade, there , fore, it is impossible to estimate, . luOuSu present. dlSpOSlllOI lS 10 COll- siderably overestimate them. Our i most serious difficulty in maintaining our export trade will be the high cost | oi production in this country com pared with Europe. The necessity of i finding a market for our surplus pro- ducts, which will become more inn perative when conditions return to the normal, is a problem that will have to be grappled with seriously at no distant date We must have ex- port trade, and we must be prepared to meet foreign competition. The worlds markets are comparatively bare of merchandise, so that sheer necessity will compel liberal pur chases by belligerents and non-bel- ligerents; and unless the United States is prepared to let slip its in