, 1917-08-23
ABL NO. I.

t0GO, IVUtVDD
United States, on which they were ac-
customed to rely before the war. The
Russian supply cannot be got out.
Bulgarian and Roumanian supplies are
in the hands of the central empires.
The voyage from Australiaean India
Is three times as long, and therefore
requires three times as many tons of
shipping as is required from North At
lantic ports. 1t Is also twice as dan
gerous because of the longer exposure
to submarine attack. There has been
a large failure in the South American
countries and the new harvest from
that quarter will not be available in
Europe until next spring. AS already
said, all the allied countries are and
have been for some time vigorously ad-
ministering and e~conomlzing their
food. In Belgium, the relief commits
sion has been compelled to reduce the
consumption of cereals by nearly 80
per cent; this brings the food supply
so low that the population are in
capable OF labor.
From the above tables 1t will be
seer hat on normal bases of cOnsump-
ton the total allied wheat import re-
quirements are 577,000,O0O bushels
against a North American surplus of
POS, 100000 bushels-and from u
United States supplies we must re-
serve a certain amoun for neutrals
from which we receive vital supplies
and also an amount to protect u
stocks better mex year than this last.
There is therefore on normal con-
sumption a deficit of I'VE 400,0OO,OOO
bushels. In the other cereals used in
Europe mostly for animal feed, the
import necessities of the allies on nor
NAL consumption basis are about 674,-
OOO,O 600 against a North American sur
plus of 950,OOO,OOO. But again a re-
serve for neutrals and increased car
ry over" will absorb all the margin.
In any event 1t means we must multi
ply our exports of these cereals 20
times. However, upon the basis of our
present crop prospects we should be
able to supply their requirements in
cereals other than wheat.
Wheat Situation Difficult.
The situation in wheat is one of
great difficulty and concern, N nus
be met by an elimination of waste and
reduction of consumption on the part
of the allied peoples and ourselves, in
one word. by an effective administra-
ton of the available supply.
The allies are unable to use other
cereals alone for bread. They can
use them only as added to wheat flour
to make the war bread now in uni
versal use in European countries. Ex-
cept in Italy, whose people normally
consume much corn, our allies AVE
few corn mills and cornmeal is not a
durable commodity and therefore can
not be shipped in great quantities.
Moreover, for generations they nave
bought bread from the bakeries; they
have no equipment nor do they know
how to bake in the household. Every
American knows hat 1t is infeasible
to distribute corn bread from bakeries,
and II is therefore necessary for us
to furnish our allies with sufficient
wheat to enable them to have n wheat
basis for the loaf. However, they can
use and must use other cereals for
mixture in their var bread, n by
his substitution and by savings on
their part n great deal can be accom-
plished. On the other hand, n deficit
of 4OO.OOO.000 bushels can be at least
partially overcome If we can increase
our exports from SS.0OO,OOO to 22O,-
100000 or nearly triple. This can be
accomplished If we will substitute n
pound of other cereals for n pound
of wheat -four weekly per person; that
is. If we reduce our consumption of
wheat -four from five pounds per week
to four pounds per week per person.
1t will be no privation to us and will
reduce the ~privation of u allies.
Food Animals.
Owing to the ascending standard of
living. the world was already strained
to supply enough animal products to
meet the demand before the war be-
~. The war has injected into an al
l 'ady difficult situation a number of
vicious conditions which are jeopardiz-
ing the ultimate animal products sup
ply of the world. The production OF
fodder in Europe has been diminished
by the diversion of productive labor to
war. and its import has been curtailed
by shortage in shipping and by the
isolation of markets by belligerent
lines. From these causes not only are
the actual numbers of animals de-
creasing in Europe, but the average
weight and the annual output of dairy
products per animal, are decreasing.
A careful estimate of the worlds
food animal position shows the follow
ing position:
Decrease
Increase OF In other
decrease Decrease countries
IAAIanlIAr Tail nal