New-York tribune., 1917-10-31
Turning Point of the
War Is Now at
Hand, Belief
in London
German Truce
Offer Expected
Entente Looks to the
United States to Pre-
vent Premature
Peace -
BY Arthur S. Draper

LONDON, Oct. 3o.-The political e.
feets OF the enemy avalanche which is
driving the Italians across the Vene-
tian Plains is rapidly becoming ap-
parent. The first thought OF every one
is 20 stand firm and save Italy; the
second, to determine who is respon-
sible for the disaster.
The turning point of the war has
been reached 1t has come so sudden
ly that it has caught every one unpre-
pared, probably the enemy as well as
the Allies.
Americas burden Of responsibility
has been increased a hundredfold in
the last week. Her material assistance
must necessarily be given on a greatly
increased scale, but she has the equal
~ important task of steadying her
partners in the war.
A peace push will follow close on
the heels of the Teuton military sweep.
Seductive offers will be made by the
Central Powers. In Allied countries
there will be modification Of terri
toral demands; people will be satisfied
with far less; there will be loss Of
confidence in the leaders; there will be
increased unrest on the Continent,
which is fast becoming soeialistic.
Look to L. S. for Moral Help
The question is not whether Amer
lea will adhere TO her war policy, but
whether she will impress her will on
her partners, whether she will give
them moral help which will pull them
through the most serious period OF
the war.
Il is not natural to expect the Ger
man people to seek any change of gov
ernment when they are winning under
the present one. President wilson has
challenged autocracy, and SO far
autocracy is still in the ring. The
people's faith in democracy is still
strong. il is true, but autocracy has
a good many rounds to 60 yet.
America will decide whether IT Is
going to be "a good peace or Prussisn
peace.
MAY Prove Boomerang
The Teuton blow at Italy may prove
O boomerang. whicn, arousing the Al
lies 70 full consciousness oil me
desperateness of the situation, VIII
lead them 10 strike a powerful blow
that otherwise would be deferred un-
I'll Americas active entry in the sprine
I,alv is 10 have help Immediately
from the Allies. The British and
Lronch governments are rushing prep
arations 10 20 to the assistance OF thelr
stricken ally. Both governments nave
completed plans involving instant co
opcration in the present crisis ne
War Cabinet here, and the Counci IN
Paris both have met 10 discuss the
hest means of rendering aid.
From military standpoint there
are three solutions Of the Italian rroo-
lem. First. the Italians may make a
arm stand on some line such as the
Tagliamento River, which already has
beccme watchword throughout Italy
as the line beyond which Italian troops
will not retreat
This river, which flows from Toll
mezzo through the plains OF Venice,
may become the Marne OF Italy, Tor
Cadcrnas faith IN his troops is not
broken.
Second. the Allies may send large
bodies of troops and hundreds OF guns
70 Italy. There are probably between
sixty-fve and seyenty-fye divisions
now driving against the Italians. There
would be great difficulty IN making
Allied aid effective. for, leaving trans
portation difficulties out OF consids rs-
ton, such troops would be or unfs-
miliar ground, where the officers and
men would be ignorant o. conditions
under which they would be forced 20
fight against confident foe.
May Start Counter Drive
The third Plan involves stalking
everything IN one great battle, ana
making strong counter attack on
some other front. Such an attack
would have 10 have great force. for no
limited drive would offset IN military
way or politically the Treat advantage
Germany has gained in her successful
blow against Italy.
lhlS DiisN W ilShS again NH' Nutc-
tion that is a subject of dispute be-
tween Eastern and Western schools.
The former claims that the conquest
OF Macedonia and Palestine would be
equally effective TO advantages gained
elscw Jere. The latter maintain that
the only scheme is TO mass men and
munitions on the West front and drive
home victory there. The Western
front now looks like the most effective
place for counter attack. since the
Russians are unable 10 help. No helm
can be expected on the Russian or
Rumanian fronts.
Tie Italian defeat may mean a com.
plete change IN the policies of Hair
and Petain. and may b. the inception
for the launching Of furious Allied
drives OF great force with fsrrcaching
cbiectlves against the German line.
OF the Western front. 1t might mean
te,t.l,