The Birmingham age-herald., 1917-09-13
COTTON SITUATION SUMMARY

American cotton in sight available for ex- port Last year American takings were 7,491, ,o86 and last years exports 5947, ,165, making a total of 13 43S ,250 bales, or 9S9,- 250 more than the estimated crop of this year. A 10 per cent decline in both ex- ports and domestic consumption would not equal the difference between last years takings and this years crop. As already shown. there is no apparent req son for a decline in either. An increase in exports is expected with any improve ment in shipping facilities; only the ne- cessities of transportation of soldiers ana. supplies is likely to cause a decrease, and if circumstances should cause a decrease Of exports, there is likely to be a cor responding increase of American manu- factures to such extent as capacity may permit, because the world must have clothing and it's stocks were never so low as at present
 From these facts it would appear that a crop of 12,5OO,O00 or even 13.oo0 0o0o bales this year will not exceed the worlds eager demand unless some unforeseen calamity should befall.
 ''The fluctuations in price during the last few weeks have not been surpris- ing to any disinterested student of the cotton market. The remnant of the old crop was small and was held by a few concerns, as is generally the case under such circumstances; demand had been quckened by our entry into the war, ard the need for quick supply of army clothing and other material; the growing crop was in low condition and shipping construction had been speeded up. Price stimulation was inevitable until the new crop began to move, and then reaction was natural. The pendulum generally swings to the extreme of speculative stimulus and back to the extreme of speculative depression It's true boise is usually about midway between.
 ''The market is now affected by the usual rush to sell new crop. A con tributing factor Is the greater value in- volved for it requires twice as much money to finance 9 crop now as it re- quired four or five years ago. Financiers are accustomed to think in terms of 10 and Recent cotton and can not easily bring themselves to think in terms of 20 and 25-cent cotton They do not readily recognize ratios and relations; they are prone to consider the old basis of or 8 cents as loan value; they do not visualize cotton in dry goods now selling upon a basis of 90 to 40 cents.
 ''On the other hand few men in the trade realize the change in economic conditions in the cotton belt The crop mortgage is not so common as in other times. Good prices and diversifcation for several years have made many cot ton planters their own creditors. Storage facilities have been vastly increased, though not IS much as should be at the point of preferred storage, which is the gin Farmers are more and more learn- Ing how to value cotton and are more and more relying upon their own judg- ment. The department of agriculture's service in furnishing information about crop conditions. yields, consumption movement, grading and marketing is put ting the producers upon somewhat equal terms with traders. Until very recently the farmer merely asked the trade What will you give?' More and more now a-days the trader Is compelled to ask the farmers, What will you take?' The change In attitude is interesting and sig nifcant. In cotton marketing, as in many of our commercial customs and political Many influences that formerly prevailed have passed away or have lost much of their potentialitv.
 gro summarize the situation. if an- pears that, if present conditions of war and transportation continue the supply of cotton is well within the worlds de- mand, and the embargo will not ma terially affect the movement .of exports The growers of cotton being appraised of the truth of the situation and being as capable as the traders of appraising the changes against them and for them. are likely to insist upon prices in keeping with the high levels of these times"
 
 The Politest Man
 From Golfers Weekly