The Washington herald., 1917-11-25


eriy trained and equipped troops. able
to fight Germans on equal terms, into
the hen In the west.
:.'Naturally ! knuow more than II
can say about the Russian armies.
As to Italy and Ameriea. I can only
Judge from the reports that were
placed before me IN Russia. and from
what have heard since I came to
England.
Z" Germany stin Strong.
Provided that the allies are not
subjected to another setback like the
Russian revolution. / think the war
will be over in the autumn Of 1918.
Although am very strongly OF the
opinion that Germany. has lost the
war in that she has failed to achieve
what she set out to accomplish, 1t
would be disastrous II the allies slack
ened up under the delusion that the
war was won beyond doubt. The
Russian revolution has given the Ger
mans the opportunity successfully to
undertake spectacular campaigns as
setoff to the continual pressure on
their lines In France and Belgium.
within the next two months 1
SuhlI DG IL lHt
lied force in the Balkans is not sub
jected to very violent attacks from q
combined German, Austrian and Bull
garian army. Perhaps an attack
may be made on the British force, in
Mesopotamia. 1t came to my knowl-
edge some time ago that the German
high command endeavored to per-
suade the Bulgarisns to dispatch an
a. a.
But the Bulgarians very wisely re-
fused. They declined to fight away
from their own country, and prob
ably with a very fair appreciation of
their allies, decided to keep their
troops within easy reach.
Gen. Sarrairs position in the Bal
kans is full OF perilous possibilities.
His line of communication is through
the sea in itself a continual sourse
Of danger.
Germany Is fighting for the future.
The dramatic landing in the Gulf OF
Riga, the combined attack on Italy,
and the successful invasion of Ru-
mania last year, are all part Of
famboyant project to bewilder their
war-weary people with their invinci-
bility. Nothing Is simpler than to de-
tach an overwhelming force to ensure
spectacular success.
Il do not Iuink' that Germany will
fight on until she Is completely
crushed. She will continue until
such time as defeat is beyond all
doubt. or until the conquered terri
tories she is now occupying seem TO
be slipping from her grasp. Then
she will notify her willingness to en-
ter into peace negotiations, and with
her occupied territories as pawns,
will say to the conference, 1 hold
these as pawns for favorable treat
ment.'
Real Test Coming.
Everything will depend on the
Russian armies during the winter.
Could they resume a proper offen-
slye 1 am convinced they woud meet
with wonderful success, for the Ger
man lines on the east must be very
thinly held. Now that Kerensky has
handed over the post OF commander
tn-chief to Gen. Doukhonin. some ma
terial improvement may be looked
for. Nothing is more hopeless than to
expect success from armies ruled
by demagogues.
AhG SOtnllS "lnIeT VIII snow
whether the Russian armies are GO
Ing to fight again in the spring. The
provisional government will need to
utilize their opportunities to re-
clothe and re-equip the troops. The
revolution was Germany's greatest
victory OF the war. With practically
no opposition on her eastern front.
Germany is at liberty to utilize large
bodies Of troops for quick thrusts.
1 am convinced We have seen the
last Of these well-staged attacks.
I'm twelve months Germany will
probably have had enough of fighting.
Her efforts up to date have been
superhuman and worthy OF forty
years of preparation. With losses
proportionate to those Of last year.
the German manpower will in a year
have reached a very low ebb. BY
next spring, the Russian armies may
have recovered their morale suf-
ficiently to take the offensive, and.
with British, French and American
troops hammering away on the west
ern front, the end should, not be
long"
A view less optimistic was voiced
by a high British military authority
who is not in a position to talk for
publication. Until the crushing
blow against Italy" this man said,
Il believed that with the helm of aouna