New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-03-13
Observation-Disclosures

One may exaggerate the immediate HniI-
tarv effect and the ultimate political con-
sequences, but not the possible results, for
it may be the first step in new orlenta-
ton of Islam, the return Of Arabian su-
premacy and the relegation of the Osmanh
Turk to a place outside the walls Of the
Mohammedan world.
By taking Bagdad the British have
amply and with reasonable promptltude
retrieved the prestige lost in the whole
Near East by the surrender at kut-el-
Amara a year ago. This surrender
coupled with the failure at Gallipoli, seri-
ously. if only momentarily, endangered
British prestige from Egypt TO Siam. 1t
was the kind of failure that could not be
permitted TO stand, and its effect east OF
Suez could be compared only to that Of the
Rumanian collapse in Europe.
A year ago the Russians had taken
Frzerum and were pressing west through
Armenia and southwest through Persia.
There was a moment when it seemed pos
sible that the threefold thrust of the
Allies might fuse into a single drive
across the upper waters of the Euphrates
and the Tigris, and that the Turk would
be pushed out Of Mesopotamia and threat
ened. if not attacked, in Syria. The Brit
ish failure ended this possibility. After
taking Erzingan and Trebizond Russian
operations came TO a dead halt, and pres
entity the Turks began to advance IN Per
STA. Now the Russians are again reported
to be moving west out of Hamadan IN
Persia, and the position of the Turks fac
ing them will become exceedingly difficult
as British pursuit from Bagdad reaches
their communications.
So much for the immediate military ef-
feet Granted that the British army is
capable of further effort, after its recent
exhausting campaign, it seems probable
that the Turks will be driven as far as
Mosul. along a section of the Bagdad rail-
road, which has been completed. At Mosul
the British will be able to join hands with
the Russians. advancing from Lake Van.
A resumption of the Russian advance from
Erzerum westward upon Diarbekr and
Kharput is also conceivable. Such cam
paign would .evitably compel Turkish
retirement out Of most of Syria, and this
retirement may be appreciably fastened
by the pressure now being exerted by
British army coming out of Egypt and al
ready reported at the gates Of Jerusalem.
But underlying the military is the po-
litical meaning of the new turn in the war.
III YOU draw a line from the Gulf of Alex
endretta on the Mediterranean straight
east to the Tigris River you will, roughly
speaking, indicate the northern frontier Of
the Arab. Mohanmedans, like the Turks,
the Arabs have never recOnciled themselves
to the supremacy Of the Osmanli; the ira
ditions of the great days of the Prophet
and his successors who carried the Green
Banner from Bagdad TO the Loire have
survived, and the decline of Islam in the
world remains for the Arab consequence
Of Turkish supremacy.
For many years there has been growing
restlessness among the Arabs. Syria,
which is Arab by population, was on the
verge Of revolt when the Young Turks
overthrow Abdul Hamid, and it was long
the Syrian dream TO create an autonomous
Syria Away TO the south, about Mecca,
there have been interminable Arab revolts,
and now the last Of these has driven the
Turk out Of the Holy City, and thus de-
prived him Of the possession of the centre
of Islam, which was one of his chief claims
to power.
The failure Of the Turkish expedition
against Egypt, the fall Of Bagdad, the
invasion Of Palestine-these are circum-
stances which must combine to shake Turk
ish power. Add 10 this the great misery
and suffering that the war has brought TO
Syria and TO Mesopotamia and the I'M
popularity Of the German, and it is plain
that there is in sight sufficient basis for a
revolt Of the whole Arab population, from
the Amanus mountains 10 the Yemen, and
from the Mediterranean 10 the Tgris. No
one will forecast the immediate outbreak Of
such a storm, but it's coming must now be
regarded az one Of the most probable con-
sequences of the fall Of BaRdad.
The alliance between the Turk and the
German was designed by the Germans TO
rerve as the first step in the assertion OF
Gerrnanic supremacy in Islam. Long be-
fore the war the Kaiser had gone 10 the
Near East and had sought 20 build up
legend of Germany's power and his great
ness In the whole Turkish world. II was
generally accepted in Islam that the Kaiser
was a Mohammedan. This alliance was TO
permit the Germans, once the Bagdad rail
road was completed, 10 70 south and cast,
youth 10 Egypt and east 10 India. The
German plans included the arrival Of the