Orleans County monitor. [volume] (Barton, Vt.) 1872-1953, 1917-09-19
THE CHANCES OF LIVING
What Soldier May Expect as Fig
ured by An Expert.

| w Hat d OO1u1GT N1dy IApCNC % -
ured by An Expert.
| Many men who have enlisted in the
army or who expect to be drafted for
service, are wondering what their
chances are of coming home again
after going into the trenches. Roger
Babson, the Wellesley statistician, was
asked the question by one of his en-
ployes who was not afraid to go to
war, but wanted to know what were
the odds in his favor or against him.
OF course, Babson, even though he
deals with figures at all times, could
not give the young man an off-hand
answer. But he made up his mind
that the soldier-to-be deserved a reli-
able answer and that he was going to
find it. So Immediately the Stats
tician got busy, obtained official fig
ures and was soon able to give the
| young man this answer
"Fifteen out of 16 of the boys who
| fight in France in all likelihood will be
safe and sound in one year after they
enter the trenches" Giving the mat
that it was the right of every con-
scripted young man, every volunteer,
and the mothers and fathers of both,
to know just what chances soldiers
take. So he has arranged publicity
for the result of his Investigations.
Babson's conclusions a-e based on
the mortality figures of the French
army during the full three years of
the war. 1t should be remembered
that the present fighting is not re-
sulting in anywhere near the number
of deaths that occurred during the
first two years, when such battles as
that at the Marine, at Ypres, and at
Verdun sent the mortality rate soar
ing.
In short, the war has resolved it
self into one of attrition; each army
is trying to wear the other men down
without losing itself any more men
than necessary. There is no reason
to believe that this method of fight
ing will not continue when our troops
\ reach the firing line. If it does, the
chances of an American soldier re-
turning safe and sound are even bet
| ter than that quoted in his reply to
| his employee.
In the first place, the terrible dis
ease scourges which used to raise
j havoc with armies in the field are no
more. Cholera, dysentery and also
| typhoid, no more take a terrible toll
from the ranks, modern methods of
SdIlICdIlOIl anu pIcNS1CIOIl have IIIduC
these things of the past.
Let's take look at the figures in
the matter. In round numbers, s.
/ 100000 men have fought under the
banner of France since the beginning
of the war. Of these approximately
| 10000 have died from diseases of va
rious kinds; comparing these with the
I mortality figures of peace times for
men of the same ages, we find that
| they are about the same. Rem mber,
that during the first months of the
war, before it was possible to care
properly for ailing soldiers, deaths
were at a terrible rate, which brought
the rate for the three years much
higher than it is at present. So I'M
der present methods of sanitation, a
man is not as likely to die from dis
ease in an army as he is at home.
About 100000 men in the French
army have been killed or died from
wounds during the three years of the
war; half of these died during the
first year. But in compiling the
statistics, We'll take the average
which is 100000 per year, or about
onesixteenth of the total number en-
gagged. Thus, considering a man in
this war for one year, he has Is
chances of returning home to one of
being killed.
But, as | have said, half of these
men, considered above, were killed in
the first year Of the war Since then
the mortality rate has been dwind-
ling until now it is very low for a
year. If such a condition continues,
it is very likely that no more than one
man in 80 or 40 will be killed. That
seems fully enough, but the mother at
home should remember that II men
out of every thousand at the army
age, die each year during peace time;
that is, one man out of S3 dies each
year in civil life.
Figuring deaths from both diseases
and wounds, under conditions such as
our boys are likely to encounter, any
young man is only about three times
as likely to meet death in the army as
at home. In fact, man in the heavy
artillery is in no more danger of
death than is an employee of a rail
road.
The person at home is prone to pic
ture the boy at the front as indulging
in constant charges against the enc
my, exposing his life every hour of
the day. Such is far from the case
A mans turn to charge comes once or
twice month. Then, of course, he is
in grave danger. But at other times
he is in no more danger of death than
he is walking about the streets of
New York City.
The likelihood of death from poison
GUS gases has been reduced to mini
mum by the use of masks, etc. At the
beginning of the war, men thought it
smart not donning their masks until
the last instant; they think so no
more. AS soon as they get a warn
ing of a gas attack, they don their
masks instantly. They are now fight
ing with their heads as we'll as their
arms, and the result is greater Sc
curity. =
Now let's look at the probability of
a mans returning terribly wounded