New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-09-16
Grinding Up German Youth

Win reference 10 GerlHdIy WHICH WISH
to emphasize II there is campaign in
1918 the major portion of the losses will
be borne by the British, who have large
numbers of men available and must, as
they are quite ready to do, relieve the
pressure on France. British man power
will suffer much more greatly than the
French next year, but even so it will not
suffer in the aggregate as heavily as the
French. We in America will begin to
make our casualty lists. Suppose, for ex-
ample. that in the campaign of 1918 the
British lose 100000, the French lose
$4,000 and we lose 100000 This is
casualty list Of two millions. A similar
German loss would wipe out all Germany's
reserves and reduce her effective man
power by something like a million more.
The losses in all cases include temporary
and permanent. Such loss would mean
of a necessity the evacuation Of France
and Western Belgium. But it would mean
much greater permanent significance be-
cause it would mean that while three great
nations apportioned the casualties among
themselves German manhood would have
70 bear the whole strain and the boys of
Germany, the younger generation on whom
rests the hope of the restoration Of Ger
many after the war, would be ground up
as was the youth Of the Confederacy in
/ the last days of the Civil War.
Germany has reached the point in her
casualty lists where she must sacrifice her
youth. France has reached the same
point but now America and England are
in position to take much OF the burden
off Of France. America can do relatively
little next year, but if the war should go
into 1919 it could do very great deal,
provided the submarine is successfully met.
/ |. ought to be clear, from this hasty re-
view of the statistics of the casualties,
why outside of the military considerations
the German statesmen now desire peace.
Another year of terrific losses will compel
the shortening of the line, even if, because
of the Russian collapse, it does not bring
decision. Shortening the line means the
surrender of Northern France and Bel
GUM. which are hostages Germany now
holds to ransom from France and from
Britain. But it also means the sacrifice
, of the youth of 16 and II and l8 and the
post ponement of the recovery of Germany
after the war, just as the recovery of the
South after the Civil War was almost in
definitely postponed by the approximate
humiliation of manhood and the youth Of
the Confederate States.
/ Even if Germany should be enabled by
the Russian collapse to hold her lines for
one year more with only relatively minor
retirements, her position with reference
to her great commercial rivals-the United
| States and Great Britain-would be des-
perate because the man power of the
United States would hardly be scratched
and the man power of Great Britain would
| still have suffered less than one-half that
of Germany.
Attrition to Decide in the End
! At the beginning Of the war all who
wrote about figures overestimated the rate
of attrition because they figured that Ger
man losses would continue at the rate they
began. Had this happened we should have
seen the exhaustion of German man power
/ long ago. But the furious fighting OF the
/ first four months was not repeated in 1915.
Germany fought on the defensive on the
West and inflicted as great losses as she
suffered, while her Eastern campaigns in
Russia were relatively inexpensive in men.
II was not until the Verdun battle, fol-
lowed by the Somme, that she began again
! to suffer those losses which were the basis
of all calculations at the end Of 1914. Al
though all estimates proved to be exag-
gerated, attrition has in the end proven
the factor all foresaw it would prove. The
war has now reduced itself to the very
simple question whether German man
power will last until the German subma-
rine has compelled the Allies to make
peace, or, to put it little differently, as
Sir William Robertson, the British Chief
Of Staff, said few months ago: THE
question is now whether the British army
can win the war before the British navy
loses it."
Il the war is continued merely as mill
tary operation for two years, the defeat Of
Germany and the destruction Of the man
power of Germany almost as completely
az il was destroyed in the Thirty Years
War are assured. The sole German hopsn
in the submarine. The collapse OF Russia
has come too late to save Germany on land
- h.r enemies continue the war and the
land operations are not interrupted oy the
submarine campaign. -