Evening star., 1917-11-02
WAR WILL Be LONG,
SAYS NAVAL HEAD
Sir Eric Geddes Gives 0pti-
mistic View of Allies Posi-
ton on the Seas.
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PRAISES EFFORTS OF U. S.

By the Associated Press.
LONDON, November 2-Str Eric
Iceddes. who recently succeeded Sir Ed
ward Carson as first lord OF the ad-
miralty, made his first address In par
lament yesterday and gave some IN
terestinE and anxiously awaited figures
on the work Of the navy and shipping
in general
| His declaration that between 40 and
| so per cent Of the German submarines
operating in the North sea, the Atlantic
and the Arctic oceans had been sunk
was not the least interesting of his
announcements, and there was an In
dication Of the unceasing war the Brit
ish and American patrols are making
on the submarine in his statement that
during the last quarter the enemy had
Host as many submarines as during the
whole Of 1916.
Ship Loss Figures Formidable.
Sir Eric added that the house would
realize that, however great the loss
ures are still very formidable-we can
not at this stage of the war pick any
one item to deduce therefrom that the
war, even any phase OF the war, Is
going we'll or badly"
The kaleidoscopic change which goes on
in actual warfare. he added, Is continually
occurring in workshops and sh1pyaros.
To the uniformed observer 1t must ap-
pear sometimes that there Is no metnod
In the madness Of those who control these
matters. But" said he. Il would appeal
| to the country for confidence. There is
method in what We do.
| "As regards the sinkings of British mer-
chant tonnage by submarines, the German
omcial figures for August are S0s.000 tons
Of all nattonahties. They sank little
more than one-third Of that amount OF
British tonnage and little more than
half Of all nationalities.
| 'For September their official figures are
$4,000 tons. They sank far less than
onethird Of that amount Of British ton
amount Of all nationalities.
More Ships Are Sailing.
'"The Germans claim that our tonnage
is falling 30 low that there are not enough
ships on the sea to enable their submarine
commanders to maintain their bag. Let
mo give you facts. In April last, the
heaviest month Of British losses by enemy
submarines since the war began. our
| trade flowed presumably in satisfactory
volume for the enemy submarine. In Sep
tember last, his lowest month Of sinkings,
our overseas sailings of all ships of over
1900 tons were 20 per cent in number
and 80 per cent In tonnage higher than in
April. The enemy must, therefore, find
another and better explanation for his
lack Of success. | can supply It.
THE explanation is that the long
arm of the British navy reaches down
into the depths, and thus the harvest
treaped Is poorer and the number of
German submarines which do not re-
turn is Increasing.
.since April. tho highest month for
British losses, they have steadily de-
creased. and latterly to a marked de-
gree.
| Total Net Reduction.
'"The total net reduction since the be-
ginning Of the war from all causes in
british tonnage on the official register
in ships over 1000 tons is under two
IA per cent. and that after a period
when our great armies and thir mag
tnificent equipment received priority
and the great growth of our navy was
riment Of mercantile shipbuildins.
Now that the submarine is for the
Ipresent doing less damage. and the re-
isources Of the country are again being
lcreasing extent to the upbuilding Of
the mercantile marine. look for net
lresults stiu moro formidable.
Germany Building Faster.
sBut, on tho other hand. the Germans
are building submarines fast er than
Ithey have hitherto done. and they have
not yet attained their maximum
strength. It appears to me. therefore.
that in the submarine warfare. as else
where. 1t 10 becoming a test Of deter
mination and ingenuity between the
two contendinE forces
The frst lord said 1t was interesting
to recall the position Of the German
mercantile marine. continuing:
"At the outbreak Of the war Ger
Of shipping. Today nearly. half Of Il
has been sunk or 10 in the hands OF
ourselves or our allies. She has . %
tpsr cent reduction TO our - per oent.
should be told what they are up
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