The Washington times., 1917-02-09
GERMANY,S WAR ON SHIPPING

on the largest scale yet beheld. In
the first four or five days of this
rccrudescence more ships went down
than in the first fortnight of the
original outbreak. The first week
of the wholesale sinkings that are
going on has cost the entente as
many ships as it lost by submarine
attack in the whole memorable month
of March, 1916, when over $4,000
tons were stricken off the register.
Word has come out of Germany
that the U-boats are to make victims
for the next few months at the rate
of 100000 tons of shipping a month.
This rate has been Appropriated to
start with at least. To attain the
intended deadliness the submarines
must average about $4,000 tons a
day, which they come near to doing.
In fourteen months of the first COM
misunderstanding campaign carried
on by the U-boats, the British mer-
chant feet lost something upward
of 600, 900 tons of 'vessels destroyed
by this deadly agency. All sinlings,
including trawlers and vessels sunk
or captured by other means, count
ing from the beginning of the war,
brought the loss of the British mer-
chant flag up to 1,700 900 in February,
1916, and to the neighborhood of
1000, 900 tons before the relaxation
of the commerce-destroying enter
prise in May. By that time Britain
had lost about 10 per cent of the
entire tonnage Of her steam mer-
chant fleet, that stood at 1892, 089
previous to the o:break of the war
New ships launched, however, had
Offset the loss to a great extent,
though it was naturally not true that
the British marine was still growing
faster than the combined influences
of submarine, bomb, natural wreck !
and age could reduce it. There had
been a reduction which the British |
shipping periodical, Fair Play, esti-
mated last April at per cent of the
entire merchant feet. Since May
the U-boats have been curbed up to
the moment of the present new out
break. During these nine months |
their rate Of destruction has been
greatly cut down. So also, on the
whole, has been the destruction by
oversee raiders, bombs. and mines,
which taken together were previously
responsible for approximately as
much damage to shipping as the SUBJ
marines themselves. We may there
fore safely reckon that the net result
of the thirty months of ship destruc-
ton up to the OPENING of the pres
emit month was to cause the British
merchant feet a net loss not in ex-
cess Of or 8 per cent of its total
tonnage afioat in 1914. The same
ratio of loss probably applies to the
shipping of France, Italy and
Belgium.
1t is plain that if the Germans
mean to do more than wreak their
spite on their opponents lives and
property occasionally overhauled at
sea; if they mean to give the sub
marine frightfulness the color Of
useful warfare, they must inflict
such a wound upon their opponents
trade as may tend to bring about a
German peace. A reduction of per
cent in the shipping will not help
much, and the rise in ocean freight
rates due to the fear of an occasional
torpedo, though spectacular is but
a trifle to a belligerent waging war
in earnest. Let US see, if possible,
how much shipping Germany needs
to sink in order to bring one or more
of the western allies to their knees
before their blockade forces the leu
tons themselves into that posture.
In the first place, it is not neces-
sary for the submarines to destroy
the whole 100000 tons, more or
less, which remain of British steam
shipping in order to drive England
to surrender. Computations on the
of years that this process
would require are futile. The marine
journal, Fair Play, reckoned that so
per cent of the merchant fleet of
Britain had been taken over for gov
eminent work, such as the trans
port of troops, while of the remain
der, delays and difficulties due to the
war diminished the efficiency to an
extent equaling possibly 10 per cent
Of the whole tonnage. If we deduct
so for ships requisitioned, 10 for de-
lays and minor mishaps and 8 for the
net loss in tonnage destroyed, we
obtain a remainder of 80 per cent
Of the former total British shipping,
which is the part available for the
service of British economic needs.
This 80 per cent amounts to more
than 100000 tons, and approx
mately equals the whole steam ship
ping at the outbreak of the war I'M
der the German and Austro-H Hun ',
2arian flags combined. So great is