Evening journal., 1917-08-03

Accepting the statements made by
the correspondents on the spot and in
London that the latest operation in
Flanders is the opening phase Of the
British offensive for 1917-and the
French part is relatively small-we
are seeing the start Of what may
prove the decisive contest Of the
war Such evidence as has come to
hand points to another Somme cam
palgn, a campaign Of steady, sus-
tanned pressure, marked also by re-
curing general attacks, after long
and intensive artillery preparation.
And at the outset of such a cam
paign It is well to recognize certain
essential facts The immediate pur-
pose of the offensive is not to seize
control OF the Belgian seacoast, turn
the German flank in Belgium, or
pierce the German line as a whole.
These are remote and ultimate possi-
bilities, but the immediate purpose is
to renew the grinding Of last year
and the consequent exhaustion of
German reserves and lowering OF
German morale. We shall fall into
the German trap If we accept at once
extreme and hardly attainable Obiec-
tiyes and then judge the success or
failure Of an opening move as It at
tains or fails to reach ends which
can be attained only by long effort
and at the close Of an extensive cam
paign.
Beyond all else, the new attack
must be designed to infict upon the
Germans losses beyond their resour-
ces in reserves to make good. We
know, on German testimony, that the
Allies Outnumber the Germans prob.
ably to ] on the Western front. We
know that they outgun and outmuni-
tion them. Now, it is automatic in
the present war that the army with
the superior artillery infiicta the
greater loss, given anything like
equality in efficiency of handling
and the British have demonstrated
their efficiency The question of at.
tack or defence IS unimportant by
comparison, as many battles have de-
monstrated.
Possessing vastly superior reserves
of munitions and parks of artillery
and again asserting something sp-
preaching the mastery of the air, the
Germans heavier losses than they in
cur. This means a more rapid ex-
haustion OF the German reserves, al
ready far inferior to the British.
Now, this situation long protracted
may lead to a collapse at some point
on the German front; It may lead to
a German retirement in advance OF
such a collapse. Conceivably, there
may be an immediate collapse, but
this is merely remotely possible and
is excessively unlikely.
What We may expect is a gradual
eating into the German front between
the Lys and the sea, comparable to
the slow grind ng through at Somme
last year. We should see more rapid
progress because the British have a
trained army now, where they had
green troops a year ago, and the
German morale in the West has v'si-
bly, lowered during year Of defeat
and retreat.
At the Somme the Germans lost
S5 900 prisoners and several hundred
guns and suffer ed over half a mil
lion casualties. They were ultimate
ly compelled to retreat upwards of
twenty miles on a wide front, evacu-
ating a thousand square miles OF
French territory. Actually the fight
lasted from July l to November
but bad weather in October handi.
capped the British Just at the mo.
ment when things were going best
Unless the British are again handi-
capped by bad weather they have
now three months of fighting season
ahead Of them. Granted that they
make progress as they did last year,
II is clear that by the coming Of win
ter the whole German position be-
tween the Lys and the sea will be
untenable and the German hold upon
the French cities Of Lille, Roubsix,
Tourcoing, will be shaken.
A successful advance for a distance
equal to that from Roye to St. Quen-
tin would mean that the Germans
would be compelled to dnaw out Of
the whole region of the Belgian
coast evScuate zeebrugge, which is
a valuable submarine base, and an
even more important base for aero
plane raids over Britain.
If the pressure is steady and the
resistance cOnstant-that is, If there