Ottumwa semi-weekly courier. [volume] (Ottumwa, Iowa) 1916-1918, 1917-07-20

| diers. Therefore, no one can say JUS,
| how many men it is absolutely neces
| sary to put on this list.
"A moments reflection will prove
that the whole 100000 must be
of examination.
Every registered man is in state
of uncertainty. He does not know
when he will be called He hesitates
to plant a crop for fear he will not
reap it. Employers hesitate to en-.
gage his services, fearing they will be
but temporary This condition ought
to be cured for the repose Of the public
mind. 1t can be cured to some extent
by putting every man on the list.
For this reason the whole 10000
600 names are to be given places on
the list Of order of examination.
SEGREGATION INTO GROUPS.
obviously no single agency could
examine 100000 men. Therefore, the
100000 are segregated into groups
of suitable size for convenient exami-
nation. There are 1857 of these groups.
For each group board has been ap-
pointed to examine for selection. BY
far the greater number Of these groups
consist of approximately 5000 men.
"Since this is so, our problem Is not
to put the whole 100000 names In
one list arranged in the order of ex-
animation. 1t is to determine the
order Of examination in each group.
Since all registered men stand in an
equality Of right and duty, the ques-
ton of priority can only be determined
by lot or drawing. 1t would be pos
sible to have 4.557 separate drawings
one for each group-but since meth
DDS would vary and since supervision
and absolute insurance against the
charge of fraudulent manipulation
could not be had in that way, every
consideration of expediency and justice
urges on drawing in Washington.
METHOD FOR THE DRAWING.
"In every group. every registration
card has red linked number written on
its face and these numbers run In a
single series from unity "a to the
number corresponding to the greatest
number of cards in the group. Nor
mally this is from unity O to about
5000.
Exact copies of the cards In each
group have been attested and sent to
the various state capitols. Lists show
ing the name of each man in each
group and the serial number of his
card have been posted in the office
of the board, published in the press,
and one copy Is on file in Washington.
There is, therefore, no chance OF any
mans number being changed without
detection or of any card being lost
beyond replacement.
IDEA OF CENTRAL DRAWING.
Suppose there were just 5000
names and numbers in every group. 1t
is at once apparent that it would be a
very simple thing to have central
drawing that would control the order
of every name and number in every
group of the whole 100000, just put
5000 numbers into bowl and draw
them out one ut time. The first num-
Der drawn out would place the 4,557
cards bearing that particular number
at the head of every list in the United
States. The second number drawn
would put the cards bearing that num-
Der second on all the lists, and so
forth.
''Now, the thing can not be done In
precisely this way. because there are
not precisely 5000 numbers In every
group. But the same idea with few
notifications is the idea on
which the present drawing is based.
DRAWING BY THOUSANDS.
ITO draw 10000 separate numbers
would take ten hours and would null
ttply the chance Of error. Moreover,
II the '9-thousands'. the 'S-thousands',
the '7-thousands' and the 6-thousands'
were scattered all over the master list
the cancellation by
boards having small groups would be
very tedious and would open the way
to numerous errors. All this is easily
avoided.
Suppose we drew only, 1000 num-
beers. We would then provide that the
drawing Of the number S7S would also
draw the numbers 1878, 2,S7S, 1878.
1873, 5,S78, 6,s7s, 1878, S,s7S. and
1878.
I'm that way only 1000 numbers
needed be drawn, and by making our
master list consist of one sheet for
each 1000 we could provide a master
list easily applicable to lists with only
900 numbers, since such boards could
disregard all except the first three
sheets.
CHANCE WILL RULE.
I'VE should do this but for the fact
that this makes it certain that men in
the first thousand would be called
first, men in the second thousand next,
and men with high serial numbers last
of all.
"Since the assignment Of numbers
Is also done by chance, this does not
interfere very greatly with the even
chance Of all men. but 1t does inter
fere to some extent For this reason
it was decided to have one drawing
to determine the order within any
group of 1000 and another drawing to
determine the order in which the
sheets of 900 each should appear on
the master list. instead of arbitrarily
ASSIGNING the sheets of 1000 in their
natural order. This reduces the whole
matter to an absolute equality Of
chance.
DETAILS OF DRAWING.
"One group of numbers. from ] to
900, and a second group from naught
% nine, have been carefully imprinted