davidaulloa/AmericanStories huggingface dataset:
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-06-17
Labor Supply the First After War Problem

The figures a. given indicate a steady
loss of alien labor by American indus
tries since 1910, and although it IS
quite probable that our industries have
drawn largely upon the farm labor"
the underlying tendency is found 20
hold true when the figures for skilled
labor classified separately from the
above) are examined.
Arrivals and departures among the
aliens in six definite classes Of skilled
operatives are shown in the double col
umn table below.
1t is impossible 10 determine from
the emigration reports exactly where
these skilled work people went when
they left the United States. There was
fairly large movement of miners and
of some of the other classes to Can
ada. The labor nearly all went home.
The governments analysis OF alien
emigration "by nationalities ard occu-
pations" gives some detail but not
enough to follow the exodus fully.
There is only enough to show that
there has been such thing as an in
ternational labor market. and that IN
the recent past We have passed on 20
some other nations industries thous-
ands of skilled and unskilled men
trained in American organization. A
big question in the riddle OF the future
is what will be done with the interna-
tional labor supply of before the war.
England's commission that gathered
the facts about imperial organization
suggests restriction OF British emigrs-
tion except TO British lands. Italy IS
talking about a great industrial deyel-
opment to come. in which she will be
the only country in the world with
plenty of labor, trained in American
and in German industrial plants during
the times when Italian labor could be
bought cheap when needed and sent
home for nothing during periods OF
slackness. Italy may restrict emigra'
ton. And, if there is no restriction
will we be able TO draw the HUNDREDS
OF thousands from Europe IL Europe
really needs men for rehabilitsiing
her industries and can pay for them?
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-06-17

in 1918, five million by sea. Three
million and quarter crossed the At
lantic 10 the Americas or back home
from them. Three quarters OF mill
ion of the yellow races were in the out
ward bound or home bound stream be-
tween China, Japan, the Pacific Islands,
Australasia. Siam, the Straits Settle
ments and the lands bordering the Ind
ian Ocean. According 10 we'll informed
European authority, Italy alone fur
nished more than a million persons,
with high proportion of common
labor. of a purely temporary industrial
migration, in which the Spaniards,
Poles, Austrians. Russians and Turks
played large part so far as European
sources are concerned, while Chinese,
Japanese, Kanakas and natives of India
formed a smaller vortex of industrial
migration in the Far East. Thousands
of Italians and Spaniards crossed the
ocean TO the wheat fields of Argentina
and the cane fields of the West Indies
and Central America, to stay only dur
ing one agricultural season and then go
home. BY many thousands the Italians,
Bulgarians, Greeks, Magysrs, Croa-
tlans, Poles, Russians. etc, went 20 the
United States. passing thousands home
ward bound after few years of work
and the accumulation of few hundred
dollars each, here in America. At the
same time many thousands of these
same natIonalitles crossed the boundary
lines of Europe, seeking temporary
work in Germany, France and other in
dustrial countries, expecting to return
after a comparatively short sojourn.
OF our own immigration in the five
years ended with 1918, ~ per cent re-
turned home. OF Argentina's compare
lively large immigration, 43 per cent
returned home. British statistics show
that in 1913 45i,527 citizens of the
United Kingdom, including all classes
of travellers. left British ports for over
sea, while 1878, exactly AZ per cent,
returned from abroad. The following
figures of average seasonal immigration
and remigration in the United States
and in Argentina during the five years
are significant:
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-06-17
From The Americas


THE problem of to-day and to-mor-
i row which the industries Of every
important nation in the world have on
their hands is the problem of the sup
ply, the cost and the control of labor.
Whenever the war ends, it will become
an international problem of serious
gravity.
The necessity of having sufficient
supply of labor, whatever any ma
TONS resources of raw materials or Of
brains competent TO organize and to
manage, is obvious.
Uncertainty of the supply of labor
in the future is the crux of the labor
riddle II is not at all a certainty that
there will be any under-supply of labor
over the world, or in this country, when
peace comes. but nearly everybody be-
lieves that all the present indications
point toward shortage. The industries
of the United States are now generally
under-supplied with workmen. At this
moment, in some industries, there has
been temporary easing up because
the steel companies are not supplying
construction materials for the building
trades, and so thousands of skilled
workmen have been shifted out Of con-
struction into manufacturing activities
where their skill can be put to good
use. Shipbuilding is expanding because
Ct the availability of this labor. Other
kinds of manufacturing are benefting
also. As the adjustment of production
upon a huge scale to war necessities
proceeds, il may be that other lines
Of activity will be starved for want
of materials. and the labor released
will be available for the lines that can
keep on going. But this is only a
temporary condition, even looking no
further than wartime. The readjust-
ment that will have TO come will &C
centuate the demand. Unless the events
Immediately following the end of the
war bring us an influx Of immigration.
or our industries in the mean time find
the way to a much more efficient use
of what labor we have, there is going
to be a shortage OF workers in the
United States in near future years such
as may have serious effect.
We have heard il said frequently in
the last ten years that free agricult-
ural lands and the cheap sources of
raw manufacturing materials, which
had before given an opportunity for
our enormous national development of
industry without the necessity for look D..
ing closely after economies of produo-
ton and manufacture, have almost dis
appeared II may occur TO somebody
soon to say that immense resources OF
cheap labor had much to do with the
rapidity of American growth of manu-
featuring and railroad transportation.
and that we may have come also to
the end of the cheap supply Of labor.
IL is estimated that from the beginning
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-06-17
United States Argentina
Inv, nj, D.. -. D.
Yearly av. I.22l.sso sie.s4s 274.sss ,1s,oss

The Argentine figures show the
enormous temporary movement of farm
labor TO purely agricultural country,
mixed with a permanent immigration;
the United States figures show larger
range temporary movement OF indus
trial labor. staying longer. taking sea-
sonable times to come and go.
From July |, 1910, to March 81, 1917,
1,7l6,9l9 American citizens left the
country and 1851. $50 came home. an
apparent loss of 1881 citizens. Aliens
and citizens together, 12.298,l46 per-
sons came and went. with the resultant
net increase of 2.S32,04i in our popu-
lation from this movement.
When the immigration figures of the
last eight years. during which the gov
crnment has published them in the
present form. are examined, some start
ling facts about the relations between
immigration. nowadays, and the supply
Of labor for our industries are dis
covered. Taking our alien immigration
and rcmigration together. including the
arrival and departures of 'non-lmmi-
grant and "non-emigrant' aliens. as
the government Classics such as make
certain declarations which subsequent
statistics, invariably show to be either
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-06-17

However. it is easy for an outsider 70
criticise. especially afterward.
The Board of Trade did the best
thing it could do under the circum-
stances. promptly and thoroughly. Its
anti-corner rule was Ineffective; there
fore. its closing rule had to be made
effective.
And il felt its way cautiously. The
first restriction it imposed was the
establishment Of marginal prices to
eliminate any petty or illegitimate
speculation which might exist and to
show that ordinary speculation was not
TO blame. A marginal price is the dif-
ference between fixed price and the
market price plus 10 per cent OF the
fixed price, which in the case OF May
wheat was $50. This was not made
mandatory upon all members and their
customers. but that was neither here
nor there. as the governmental buyers
cared nothing about any financial bur
den.
First Drastic Steps
The Wheat Export Company has
sos 900 900 (s125, OOO.Ooo) back Of it in
the Bank of England. The next step,
the first really drastic one, was the
adjustment of trading in May wheat
late Friday, May II. The following
dav July wheat became as pyrotech-
meal as May wheat had been, where
unon maximum prices we're fixed for
both July and September wheat ana
buying of these futures was prohibited
except against previous sales. Inc re-
s+rictions have since been extended 10
corn Prices broke badly and many IN
nocent persons suffered-hour ana
otber food folk-but the end desired
was achieved.
Since then little has been heard
about "the government closing the
hoard" 1t would be like smashing
thermometers to improve the weather
The grain market has no other balance
wheel. Speculation is an integral and
essential part Of the delicate mechan-
ism.
lanes A. Patten. who probably has
figured in more big grain deals than
any one other trader, says:
without speculation prices would
be lower to producers and higher to
consumers. Speculation minimizes the
cost of distribution. At the beginning
OF a crop movement. without specula-
ton. everybody would be afraid to ac-
cumulate, so the farmers would suffer.
A few strong interests could control
the situation, charging more'as well as
paying less. The tendency would be
toward more and more concentration,
! as in the case Of tobacco and oil after
the exchanges dealing in those
products were abolished many years
ago.
MAN has always speculatcd. 1t is
as natural and as necessary as breath
ing. speculation can easily be abused,
however, and the Board of Trade has
proved its ability to hold excessive
tendencies in check ordinarily.
Evidence that recent high prices
were not due to speculation by indi-
viduals is indicated by the fact that
cash wheat sold higher than the near
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-06-17
WHAT REALLY HAPPENED TO THE GRAIN MARKE Is

have foreseen the series Of crop fail.
ures throughout the world, which finsl.
~ resulted in making North Amsrie,
the only accessible source Of supply
even if it could have foreseen IN,
awf full destruction of ocean carrier,
It's accumulation Of 10000 900 bushel,
of May, July and September wheat in
Chicago and Winnipeg was panicky. So
much wheat was not needed before IN.
harvest. in North America and could
not be transported in hurry X needed
There is considerable whes. left in IN,
United States and Canada, including
good deal of the latter country's lsIS
crop still awaiting cars, and new crop
wheat begins moving soon.
Buyer Urged to Go Slow
As long ago as last fall the Board Of
/ Trade sent representatives 10 New
York and Washington to influence the
Wheat Export Company, buyer for the
British government, acting for the
other Entente allies, to 60 slowly, i'm.
pressing upon them that the market
could stand only a strain Of few mill.
/ ion bushels Of long May wheat and
/ twice as much July and September
wheat, and their importuning seemed
to make the right impression, but the
buying continued with cumulative mo.
rcntum, and all entreaties TO loosen
were ignored. The inevitable hap
pened, and nobody was in any danger
of being sent to jail or otherwise dis.
ciplined.
1t is recalled that the price of whest
before last years deficiency was known
was so much higher than any ststisti.
/ cal reasons for it to be that there were
conjectures about German buying to
keep it from use by the Allies or to
make them pay dearly for it, or in an.
ticipation of a fstalistic expectation OF
an carly end of the wsr-s most absurd
supposition, in view OF Russias two
years accumulation of crops.
The piling up of gold and expansion
: OF credit facilities, with general pros
pcrity of the war goods sort in North
America, England and other countries
| sharp advances in wages and prices Of
most Of the important commodities, and
a tendency on all sides toward specu-
lation and imitation all these in
! nuences have to be considered in con-
/ nection with the May wheat debacle.
Nature Coming TO the Rescue
! Nature is coming 10 the rescue, and
after all men can say or do they mus.
leave the final results to the benign and
/ bountiful mother. Crop reports ar.
coming in better everywhere. Tn. soil
/ is well saturated. Only the sun is
needed to bring the crop season up to
ckedule. Averages are immense, seed
: ing and planting have been well diver.
sifed, and tilage is more scientific than
[ formerly.
On the othes hand, the ground has
not received It's share Of fertilizer the
last two years. the reason being well
( known. Former bases Of computing
probable yields are consequently not so
reliable as they were. The govern
monts estimates may be taken as the
/ safest to follow. all thinzs considered.
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-06-17

delivery, which in turn sold higher
than the deferred deliveries. The law
of supply and demand has continued 70
assert itself as ever, and it cannot be
lcgislated or otherwise coerced into
suspending for long at time.
Those who foresee decreasing sup
ply and increasing demand are not gam
blers when they act upon their judg-
ment. Speculation does not aim at less
for the producer or more for the con-
sumer, but merely a normal adjustment
OF prices"
Views Of a Banker
John J. Mitchell, president Of the
Illinois Trust and Savings Bank, the
largest state bank in the West and the
third largest bank in Chicago, was
asked for his views regarding the eff
feet of entirely closing the grain ex-
changes. Mr.. Mitchell replied:
ut would be most unfortunate, and |
have not heard anybody talk seriously
about it. 1t is highly important to
keep open, and as clear as possible. the
avenue for purchase and sale of grain
and provisions. (The Board Of Trade s
provision pit is devoted to transactions
in hog products Action taken by the
Board of Trade, followed By eight
other leading grain exchanges, has
proved satisfactory, without going any
further. The excitement has all sub
sided.
"If the British government takes
over the Wheat Export Company, in the
sense of requiring it TO cooperate
closely with the exchange authorities
through the British and American
food commissions or otherwise, as
am told is likely to happen. there will
be much less disturbance hereafter. In
fact. there should be very little dis
turbance. Wild speculation has already
been eliminated pretty generally, as
has been also the large individual
speculation.
Bank Loans at Low Ebb
"Our banks loans on grain are at
the lowest ebb for the period | have
ever known, less than 100000, COM
pared with betweep sl5,OOO,OO0 and
s16. 1000 900 usually in early June. Our
loans extend TO Kansas City, Omaha
ard the Twin Cities of the Northwest,
mostly to elevator concerns, which are
the principal holders Of grain in
trarsit.
During the recent scare Western
banks drew back and some got from
urder, with the result that much OF
this business went TO Eastern instltu-
tons, but the total volume has been
roticeably reduced. | understand that
nearly 100000 bushels of long wheat
has been liquidated, and that the big
open account has shrunk to 100000
bushels.
EFF the Board of Trade were entire
II closed the small dealer could not
come TO the bank and borrow on any
thing like the legitimate value of his
collateral, which is the best in the
world at all times, while the seller in
the country would have no way OF
knowing with even approximate accu-
lacy what are fair prices"
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-06-17

misstatements Of Intention or inten-
tions later changed by wholesale, the;
following ingress and egress OF un'
skilled labor is shown, during later
years, by the immigration reports:
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-06-17

The BOARD Of Trade has 1900 mem
be,.. and the trades Of 1870 gram com
mission houses are cleared through IT,
III. hackers hedge there. The list IN
cIudes seventy-fve grain receiving
firms and more than score OF smaiief
elevator companies. Chicago oahA'
6n.pce the handling Of cereals nay
md provisions through this exchange
from the Gulf of Mexico to "inn'pe.
.rd as far west as the PACING coast
C,o-,ourth Of the Board Of TRADE
members live out of town, IN every
mart of North America.
Market value of the products SOLO Oh
the Chicago exchange last year exceed
cd half a billion dollars. mat Is INC
Fundamental source of Chicagos com,
msrcial and banking power. More wheA'
is traded in here than IN all other gran
markets in North America compiheo'
and practically all of the future 'fao
ing in coarse grains, corn ana 0a'''
l. done here. Speculative Gales asgre-
cyted nearly 10000, 100000 bushels last
war or the year before, or twenty
- The amount of grain received at
primary centres.
Elevator Capacity Large
Local elevator capacity is around Az
ooo ,,,.hols which seems small IN
comparison to the volume OF trading
hut ordinarily is sufficient, much more
.hop sufficient just now, with no large
holding Of any grain except oats. Usu-
aIlv at this time there are seVera' mn
ION bushels of wheat in store mere
Mr. Mitchelrs remark about the sma''
volums Of his grain loans is taken 70
emphasize the smallness OF the cash
wheat supply on hand.
What started the bull market IN
whoat. the worlds principal 1000 cereal.
which always moves the other ceres'S
20 some extent, if only sympathetlcal1y'
,,os not actual scarcity. but war time
demand. with a certainty of increased
consumption by armies and correspond
ing decrease in production BY the bel,
Iigsrcnt nations as the war progressed
and expanded. Our own crops "ei'
large in 1913 and 1914, and very large
in 1915, while Western Canada pro-
duced double crop in 1915 and iaif
crop in 1916, when the yields on TINS
side were disappointing, extremely
short in the spring wheat states oil
the Northwest.
The public participated in the bull
market until it crossed the - marx
but few large private fortunes resulted
from the speculation. The pubic Is
always bullish On grain as well as on
stocks when it plays the game, pu'
its profits are seldom commensurate
with its faith and opportunity. Event
ually, most OF the profits so back
where they came from.
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-06-17
Exchange Merely Msrketplace

"If the Board Of Trade were closed
the world would be without a grain
market. This exchange is merely a mar
ketplsce. II buys no grain, and, except
in extraordinary emergencies. IL sets
no price. but through II the producer
reaches tho consumer. IL South Water
Street markets were closed. what would
the gardener and fruit grower do with
their producel When they shut the
cotton exchanges the market for that
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-06-17

staple was destroyed and We were all
being urged to buy bale of cotton
SLOGANS cannot make markets. Vast
amounts of grain spoil in Russia each
year because there is no nationwide
means Of marketing it. Germany tried
futile and costly experiment years
ago of stopping speculation in cereals,
and was glad to resume it.
Thousands Of years experience and
experiment, of bartering and trading
on a scale big and little, are back OF
the system represented by the Board of
Trade. and it cannot be discarded with
out disaster until some genius has de-
vised another marketing system as good
or better.
First Of all, let US stop the waiiing
of ignorance and the world lrlgh''
There is and will be enough foodtsufis
TO 60 around if carefully handled
There will not be bread famine. Inc
new crops are nigh, and while we can
not measure them yet, with the eXcep-
ton of the winter wheat crop, which
will be much below early expectations
although it is showing improvement
now. it is safe to assume, with climatic
averages, normal yields in the aggre-
.ate-a sufficient supply if used legiti-
mately.
Hoarding Is Unnecessary
! "Hoarding of supplies is unnecessary
and should be discouraged everywhere
Fortunately, the people have begun 10
stop bidding up prices on themselves
And the farmers are loosening their
grip on the surplus grain which they
still have in hand. Car shortage is
still serious factor, however. we
pleaded with the government for four
months to order preference IN the
moving of foodstufs when coal and
steel were moving better than cereals
The rail transportation situation Is
somewhat better in spots. but there re-
mains the even greater handicap oil
beat shortage.
Congestion in May and July wheat
was not caused by ordinary speculation
which had nothing to do with It, Inc
largest buyers of wheat for present ana
future delivery had been the govern
ments of Europe, which made commit
ments far in excess Of known or prop
able requirements for the near future
mr. of the actual available commercial
sunnlv. What the Board Of Trade dld
"a relieve the pressure was unprece-
dented here. and it was revolutionary
in some respects in violation OF con-
tractual rights, but it had to be done
We had to declare martial law IN gram
trading for a brief period, as other eX-
changes in this and other countries
have done to some extent at times IN
the past. A few weeks previously the
Winnipeg Exchange tried TO curtaii
sreculation rather drastically, but spec
ulation. as that term is conventionalIy
understood, does not cause. prices 70
rise Unfortunately. On the contrary u
tends to keep prices stable and close TO
the normal adjustment between supply
aud demand
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1917-06-17
Little Fellows Lost

There was a large volume Of short
selling by the more daring of foolhardy
spectators on the recent big bulges,
but the market ran away and the little
fellows lost heavily. In pit parlance,
they got trimmed right"
Big operators Of the old days were
conspicuous BY their absence. Pat.en