The Washington herald., 1917-08-05
By JOHN LLOYD BALDERsToN


! this war, on the Western front, was
the French phase. 1t lasted until .
O'Clock On the morning of July /, a
year ago, hen British Tommies went
over the p on the Somme. relieved
the press re on Verdun, and com
mcnced II second phase of the war,
| the Britisi phase. jules Cambon said
in Paris last week that the third
phase of the war. the American phase,
| began with the landing of American
| troops in France.
! But strictly speaking, the American
phase will not commence until the
American army Is the most powerful
in the field. ready to carry on to VIC
tory. when the French and British
have done their part. That will not
come before the autumn of 1918.
What will the American armies next
year be up against in France? 1t is
possible to answer that question, with
in a margin of error OF not more than
+, 10 or Is per cent. To do so involves
the use of figures Figures are dry
ard tiresome-moSt fisures-but not
these. The blood-cCrdling and increu-
ible adventures packed into all the
dirle novels and movies of the world
would not equal those which have gone
to make up these figures. figures
whose genesis and complication must
be hidden under the mystic word, in
telligence.
Intelligence to Come After.
4 After the war, when the Intelligence
gives up its secrets, nobody in search
| of excitement will need to read nc
\ tion. Today, ali that can be said Is
that details here given of the strength
and composition of the enemy armies
are authorized for publication. They
are details whose main interest, for
America, lies not in how they were
compiled, but in the meaning they
hold for the United States, the duty
| they point out.
If the war goes on, and the allied
armies this year. and in the cam
paign next year, continue killing Ger
mans at the average rate maintained
since August. 1914, there will be ap-
proximately $4,000 German soldiers
left in November. 1918. when the Brit
ish phase of the war will probably
have closed and the American phase
! begun. OF these, 4,232. 900 will be fight
| Ing men at the front.
| How this figure is arrived at will
be made clear in the course of a de-
| tailed analysis of the German armies
as they exist today. This analysis
comes under three heads. First-How
many divisions have the Germans in
the field? Second-How many reserves
has Germany available to fill up the
gaps in the divisions, the fighting
/ units? Third-What is the rate Of
wastage of the German armies?
The most important of the three,
and the. one concerning which the
greatest accuracy is possible. is the
enumeration. and incidentally the To-
cation, OF the German divisions.
leduced One-fourth.
There are today, on all the fronts,
2S1 German divisions. OF these. 15S
are at present stationed on the West
| front and 75 on the East frGnt Ger
man divisions vary enormously in
/ value, and to a considerable extent
in numers. But it is now believed
that the process of subtracting three
regiments from each German division.
one regiment from each of the di-
VISIONS three brigadcs, has Been COM
pleted. This was commenced last
winter, with the object of forming
a large number of new divisions at
the expense of the existing ones.
Accordingly, the strength of the
average German division has been re-
duced. since the close of the battle
of the Sor1u1e, by about one-fourth.
Instead Of the 1000 men which for
merly represented the full strength
of a German division, each division
now contains 1900 This does not
neaen Is 0c0 bayonets; in modern war
fare so many troops must be detailed
for communication and other duties.
that not more than 5000 men in a
division Of three brigades of three
regiments each-now the standard
German size-can man the trenches
or attack at any one time. This re-
duction in strength was undertaken
not, as was hastily assumed at the
time. because Germany was running
short of men. but because fresh di-
,.'sions were wanted to overrun Ru-
mania and take part in the great Of
fensive this year on the West front.
t.at seems to have been perforce
sbandoned-
The 2S1 existing German divisions.
assuming that all are at full strength,
account for 3.6ss,00o men. This does
not take into account the central re-
serve in Germany from which gaps
are filed. the great quantities of in
ferior landwehr and landsturm troops
garrisoning occupied territories more
than half as big as Germany. nor
the young boys who have been or
shortly Will be called up for service.
Many Boys for Army.
The second part of our analysis of
the German armies, the problem OF
available reserves. cannot be solved
with the accuracy possible in dealing
with the fighting divisions. 1t is.
known that $4,000 boys reach the
age of Is every year in Germany, and
from prisoners captured and the med
ical records of the French and Brit
ish armies in dealing with similar ma
terfal. the number Of these boys who
are Incorporated in the enemy armies
can be calculated almost exactly. But
the question of the central reserve
and of the number of troops on garri-
son duties in Belgium. France, Poland.
Russia, Rumania and Serbia, Is more
difficult.
It is Impossible to go into details
about the methods used In assessing
these figures which. obviously, are
more Involved: more tortuous and
more mysterious in the case of troops
In the interior of Germany or Bel
giunn or Poland than with divisions
somewhere near the firing line. The
estimate of Gen. de Lacroix in Paris.
based uopn official data, is that on
June there were. excluding the
369s. 900 men in the, al existing Ger