Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1917-05-06

keep the country going for a numl
Britain Can Last Year.
Now the allies have hoped. some of
their leaders have believed. that the
German collapse was due in May or
June. But quite az clearly the Ger
mans have believed. and many of them
still believe. that the submarine cam
paign 10 bringing Britain to tho point
of starvation. and will win the war be-
fore the summer is over. We may say
that the allies are encouraged by what
they hear and hope about German con-
ditions, but we must quite as clearly
reckon that what the Germans hear
and hope points quite as strongly
toward British starvation. We know
are wrong, and that Britain can last
this year, at the very least, but there
is. at least, sound reason for believing
that Germany will also pull through
and that allied calculations are also be-
side the mark.
Conceivably there will be an ex-
plosion within Germany. We hear much
of the undercurrent Of dissatisfaction
and worse among the laboring classes;
we perceive evidences OF unrest that
may lead to some sort Of change in
the German government. may even lead
to revolution. although those who know
Germany best least expect revolution.
But to reckon on peace s.. that con comes Is
to reckon unwisely. all things con-
sidered.
Russia's Collapse Helps Germany.
And at the precise moment that the
outside world is thinking most of Ger
man internal weakness. German public
opfpgop g. huovad I'm hv Tia nm m NJ a 4 n =
BILE collapse Of Russia. The greatest
single fact In the war history of 1917
has been the collapse of Russia as a
military force. and there are signs that
are unmistakable that, whatever be the
ultimate outcome OF this revolution.
the Russian army has been disor-
ganized SO completely that 1t is no
sary factor in allied campaigns.
1t may be that next spring Russia
will have found herself and have re-
organized her resources and her armies.
II she shall have accomplished this the
peril to Germany will be very great.
But. on the other hand, 1t is. at least. as
possible that Russia may make a sepa-
rate peace with Germany and the allies
of Germany. and that there will be
released for service against the French
the Austrian troops now on the east
ern line. to say nothing Of Turkish and
Bulgar troops.
Italy Another Problem.
Nor is it outside of the range of pos
sibility that. given a Russian detection.
Italy will make a separate peace or
succumb to an attack made by Austria
and German troops released from the
Carpathians and the Lithuanian fronts.
~ FOL Iohf Ho IN
take would easily be procured from
Austria by Germany. il she desired to
buy off Italy. l do not mean to sug-
gest that Italy would betray her pres
ent allies. but 1t is possible that they
might be unable to give her the neces-
sary aid to defend her fronts against
an attack such as laid Rumania in the
dust last autumn.
Personally do not believe. judging
from such information as / can gather.
here and abroad. that either Russia or
Italy will make a separate peace.
Neither do I believe that there will be
a German revolution, nor that Germany
will be starved into surrender by the
end of June or July. Recalling what
the south endured In the last days of
the confederacy, it seems to me doubt
full II Germany can be expected as yet
to yield to food exhaustion, and she
or fear as struck the south in 1854.
Laying aside the question OF acct
dents, which is a double question. as I
have tried to explain, we have this
situation: On the military side there
can be conquered before the end of the
campaign of 1917. We should not be
misled by the pleasing reports that
come from the allied nations. In the
last month the British and French have
been more successful than at the
Somme. and the British have won a
really impressive victory. But having
won their original success. they nave
not been able to follow it up by swift
drive. and the battle Of Arras is now
sinking to the level of the battle of
the Somme; it is becoming pounding
operation, in which all the gains are
British, but the gains themselves are
not of the sort to hold out promise of
the collapse of the German army or an
immediate and far-reaching retreat.
Germany at the Frontier by Winter.
Given the rate of progress now being
made by the British, given a campaign.
more successful than the Somme. but of
the same general character. we may see
the Germans back at the French from
tier before snow flies. Save for bad
weather they would have had to retreat
last autumn, but in any event they were
compelled to retreat in the spring and
they seem certain to end by making a
similar withdrawal before this cam
paien ends. But IL the Germans are
Compelled to withdraw to the French
frontier, il, and this is an extreme ex-
pectation, they are compelled to retire
to the line of Antwerp. Brussels, Namur
and the Meuse. they will still be pro-
yided with admirable defensive lines.
and they will have shortened their
front and thus reduced their RESPONSE
bility in men; that Is. reduced the num-
her Of men needed to hold the front by
several hundred thousand.
Always there is the possibility of a
German disaster. of q sudden collapse
az German morale. Such q collapse 10
not in the least impossible. and we have
German testimony to prove that 1t was
periIously near at the end Of the Somme
fiaht last year. But. again. 1t is not
thing on which to calculate. Save for
accident. the Germans have the men
and the munitions to defend themselves
for the present campaign. They have
recently rallied after initial defeat by
the British. and they have been able to
hold the French with little gain in the
greatest offensive that the French have
vet undertaken. and the failure of this
Offensive to win a decision has led to .