Evening public ledger. [volume] (Philadelphia [Pa.]) 1914-1942, 1916-11-04
By ROY W. HOWARD
NEW YORK. Nov.

NEW YORK, Nov 4.
Nowhere either in England. France OF
Cermany. Is there the slightest evidence yet
OF an approaching end to the war. In no
country is there any Indication that the
struggle can be terminated within the next
two years. There are innumerable indica-
tions that the end is much farther on. Lord
Northciiffe, who, more often probably than
any other man. has correctly forecast the
wars Developments IL now urging the
British 20 make no calculations based upon
peace within FIVE years
Although pushing their offensive on the
somme with great vigor. the British land
forces Will not have attained full fighting
strength before next summer. The idea
current In Germany that France Is too
nearly exhausted for further dangerous
offensive II unwarranted optimism. The
actual figures OF the Somme drive, where
the French Though only called on TO pro-
tect the right wing Of the British offensive
force) have actually taken more ground
and more prisoners than the British, is
Indicative OF what the French have In re-
serve. SO Also the new thrust at Verdun.
On the other hand, the Idea current In
the Allied countries that Germany sees
either defeat or exhaustion as a near mem
ace is Quite without Justification.
GERMANY WANTS PEACE
Germany wants peace-admttediy wants
Il badly. The French and British public
has misunderstood and misconstried this.
The fact is that Germany wants peace
NOW, not because she believes herself de-
fented. but because she thinks she is nearer
military victory than she or any OF the
bellgerents win again come. Germans ad-
init that they are surfeited with war, but
insist that France and Russia are equally
80. They say that at the present rate OF
the Somne advance. in time and CASUAL
ties, England's allies will be bankrupt be-
fore "the great push" can reach the Rhine.
fnn riH he idaa fhut M nffA va
can penetrate the Rhine defenses.
PARIS AND BERLIN
The last eighteen months have worked
great changes In the belligerent capitals.
Paris changed least during the interval
is brighter gayer and n shade nearer her
normal, even though the war is still the
all-engrossing idea. Berlin has become al
most somber rather noisy and exag-
gerated confidence has given place to a
determination truly grim. The food situa-
tion, u not working the havoc with
sfofnachs that the Allies would like to be-
lieve, IS having It's effect on nerves. The
difficulty is not so much scarcity OF food as
soaring OF prices and monotony of diet
Everywhere the question is asked when is
peace coming 7"-but nowhere is there evil
dcncc of fear or voiced dissatisfaction with
Government or army.
When peace Is talked of by the average
German II Is a peace with full honor TO
Germany. II Is peace creditable TO the
Germany that has conquered Belgium, Po-
land, Serbia and the richest districts of
northern France the Germany which Is
ovcrrunning Rumania and which even In a
war OF attrltion is still adding to its cap
tured territory. The peace openly striven
for by Germany Is n far different thing
Involving as II does restoration OF the
status quo ante as the limit OF concessions)
from the only peace ever mentioned in
Paris or London--a peace TO be dictated
TO Germany
LONDON BARS PEACE TOPIC
But II is London that has undergone the
Erbatest transformation. In the fall OF
1914 the Engii1hrnan was talking gliblS
OF ''busineas as usual" Last spring hs
wns rather bored because the war would
probably drag over into 1915, and wal
chatting under the upset OF business routine
Today there Is no business and no routine
IN England except the business and routine
of making war Peace as topic OF con
versation Ia almost taboo. More men. more
munitions more money. Release the eligi
bies for military service perfect the or
ganization behind the battle line. and keer
the hands OF the politicians on General Sii
Dauslas Haig These are the sole topics
Of the moment
involved In the situations developed In
England and Germany are two powerful
factors which combined seemed 10 blight
all possibilities OF an early peace. Neither
Of these factors is fully understood by the
people Of the opposing nation. Only few
/. OF the leaders have sensed them. These
factors are. irst Englsnds determination
20 light until the Allies can dictate peace
which will not only eliminate the menace
OF German fnilitarsm. but which will also
elilninate the menace Of German CONNER.
cialissn and. secondly, Germany's deter.
mination and apparent ability to maintain
. Successful defensive indehnitely--fnean
while hoping 10 ALLEVIATE one or more OF the
Allies or 10 nee one or more OF them breah
under the military or financial strain.
aERMANy's ATTITUDE
Germany viii consider no peace now a
any terms the ALLIES would even mention
because what the Allies want now Is no
peace. but Germany broken. II will taxi
years Of more severe punishment than hal
such peace can be forced upon Germany
on the other hand, Germany's only pos
fihlt chance or a peace on terms even ap
proachlng those with which she Is nov
ensllne depends upon her ability 70 holt
her enemies at bay until financial rull
forces compromise. Neither condition
PROMISES much for an early peace.
Meanwhile, South America which manu-
facfures little II wondering when the Unite
states Is going 70 readiust 70 meet condl
lions as they are and as they are likely I
remain for some time English exports I
Ho11th America have naturally been great
h4mDered. German exports have ceases
~rc situation has never ofrered such or
poftunity 70 legitimate American trad
fcnfh trnerica - no El Dorado for IN
n AuerIcan merchant, nor IL Il any dumpin
<onnd for second-rate commodities. Meth
. &<1 liberated In Mexican. Central America
w West Indian trade will not serve
1u(h America but any American manl
<oror looking for iekitlInate expansio
Drepared 20 do business In Argentina
ION or Chill with business men equal
n those he deals with In New XorI
1oie or California, will find a splendI
1T1unHy awaiting him in Brazil ana IN