Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1916-11-12

L term to larger strategic concep-
The British are prepared: they have in
tervened effectively to take the burden
off the French. France has not been
destroyed, as Germany expected, be-
fore the British could get up. and we
have had both at the Somme and be-
fore Verdun recent proof of the force
that is still left in the French army.
Having thus looked at the allied view
of the third campaign. let US glance at
the German calculations. First OF all
I there is no longer any German dispute
about Verdun; that Ia recognized as a de-
feat and confessed in the retirement of
Falkenhayn. Second. there Is full
recognition of the Austrian defeats in
Galicia. Such dispute as there Is con-
Germs the number of prisoners taken
map proves it and there can be no dis
pute. But the German looks at these
things differently.
Germany's Idea Of the War.
In the German mind Germany is en-
gagged in a defensive war against four
great and several minor powers, with
Austria-Hungary. Bulgaria and Turkey
as allies. In this war Germany has oc-
cupied vast areas as a result of her ini
conquered territories she will emerge
winner from the war. So far she has
held all but a small fraction and in Ru-
mania she has broken new ground.
Actually. Germany. to take the Berlin
view, has herself lost nothing In 1915.
and her allies have had no serious loss.
Looking westward. Berlin proclaims
that after five months the allies have
made only insignificant gains, which,
according to British official figures.
have cost the British over 100000 cas-
a drawn battle henceforth. Germany
expects that the allies will wear them
selves out against her defensive lines.
She expects that long before her lines
break. financial exhaustion will overtake
her foes She believes that her sub
stantial success in holding her lines
this year points toward the realization
of her dream of peace made on the
basis OF the map as 1t stands. which
would be a victorious peace.
At the beginning Of the year Germany
still hoped for a conquest. That hope
died in Galicia and before Ferdun. Ger
many Is ready to talk peace on the basis
of things as they now are in Europe. She
will not talk on any other basis because
she believes that things will remain as
they are, in the main, until her enemies
wear themselves out. She regards the
past campaign as a success because 1t has
not taken from her any essential part of
her conquests. She regards 1t as a sue
cess because, new enemy having APP
peared, she has been able to defeat this
new enemy in brilliant fashion and may
conceivably extend her victory to the &C.
cupation of most of his territory.
Third Round a Draw.
A comparison Of the two points OF view
must inevitably lead to the conclusion
that the third round Of the world struggle
has been draw, in so far as the question
of knockout is concerned Quite as
clearly, it seems to me. decision based
upon points must go to the enemies of
Germany. But decision in the matter
of points is OF merely passing value. since
the struggle is described on both sides as
fight to the finish.
Accepting this standard of measure
nent. 1t seems to me quite clear that the
progress of the campaign OF 1915 does not
suggest the Immediate approach Of
knockout On the German statement OF
the case it has become a defensive battle.
so far as the central powers are con-
cerned. But I can see nothing to sug-
gest that this defensive battle will not be
Germany isnow failing in manpower has
been pretty fairly controverted in recent
months. We may see-we probably
shall sea shortening of the German
campaign Of 1917, but this will not
mean any Immediate change in the
whole situation.
Situation Summed Up.
The truth OF the thing seems to be
this: II Germany can hold the road to
Constantinople. II she can keep Rus
sian Poland and Serbia and retain
Turkey and Bulgaria in the war as
her allies. she will win the war. even
II she has ultimately to evacuate Bel
GUM and northern France and stand
on her old frontier. AS long as the
situation In the Balkans remains as it
now Is, Germany will control the road
TO the east. and this Is the prize Of the
war for the Germans. Conversely, there
is no apparent prospect of q successful
advance from Saluniki that viii reach
the Danube or from Rumania that will
arrive at Sonia.
Unless Germany can persuade Russia
to make separate peace, she will next
year be subjected to far greater pres