Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1916-07-16


it to control the offensive.
In 1864, however, Grant had come east
with one clear conception. He purposed
to attack on all fronts and simultaneously
there was to be equal pressure on all
parts. continuing casualties. never ending
wastage in men and resources until attri-
ton. II nothing else. to use his own grim
words. should bring the south back to the
Union.
Thus in 1864, Grant in Virginia. Thomas
in Tennessee, Sherman from Atlanta to
the sea, struck, and in a year came the
fall Of the confederacy-it simply wore
out and collapsed under the strain. Now.
in 1916, at the close of the second year
of the present war, we have the central
powers, at last, on the defensive, attacked
on the east by the Russians, in the south
by the Italians and on the west by Anglo
French armies.
Borrow Policy of Grant.
So far, and only SO far, the parallel is
plain. We do not know, we cannot even
guess, that the central powers will be
crushed as was the south. What we can
see Is that the foes Of the central powers
have borrowed the strategy-or perhaps
better-the war policy Of Grant; they are
Just beginning to apply 1t. We are only
in the very first days OF the application
and nothing OF real decisive value mas
yet occurred.
l purpose this week to discuss the bat
tie of the Somme. but before turning to
this wish to call attention to the eastern
field for moment. Some time ago
pointed out that two Russian achieve
ments were equally fraught with serious
consequences for the Austro-Germans-
the break in the lines about LutsF, which
permitted an advance upon kovel, and
the break in the line south of Tarnopol
and near the Dniester river, which threat
ened Lemberg. At that time 1 also point
ed out that unless both of these were
halted Lemberg would shortly be in
danger.
Advancing in the South.
The northern advance was checked in
a brief time-when this article is writ
ten. on Sunday. July 9. the Russians,
although advancing again, seem slight
" farther from Kovel than they were
a month ago-nor are they at Brody. to
the outskirts of which they came about
the same time. But in the south they
have overrun Bukowina, taken Ko1o-
mea, cut the railroad from Lemberg
over the Kirlibaba pass to Hungary.
and striking dangerously at the flank
Of the Galician wing covering Lemberg.
Away to the north, from Pripet
marshes to the Gulf of Riga. 1t is also
the Russians. and not the Germans,
who are attacking. 1t is in this region
that military observers have expected
an offensive by Hindenburg to relieve
the pressure to the south. 1t may yet
come, but 1t has not come, and the pres
sure is increasing steadily.
have, the Austrian situation continues
bad-so bad as to suggest a progress
sive Decentralization wherever Austrian
armies are unsupported by German
troops. 1t seems particularly bad in
the southeast, where the Bukowina
and the troops along the Dniester are
giving ground rapidly and again sur
rendering in large numbers-as only
Austrian troops surrender when the
tide turns against them.
Danger Threatens Entire Line.
If Russia keeps on for another week
in Galicia at her present rate and no
German counter offensive materializes.
the whole Austro German line in the
east will be in grave peril, and it seems
to me almost inevitable that Germany
will have to draw back to the Niemen
and the Bug and Austria to the San.
yielding Lemberg second time.
1t is a matter of relatively little i'm
portance where the break in the CEN
trail powers lines comes, if it does come
What will count is the first consider
able withdrawal, whether it be east or
west, and it will count because OF the
moral rather than the military sig
nificance. Germany will strain every
nerve to hold on, not because of the
value of the Volhynian marshes. but
because half the world will attach such
Importance to the first retreat.
Now as always, this war must be
viewed as a whole-not from the point
of view of the trench lines in Artois or
Flanders. Remember that the whole
Confederacy bad practically collapsed
before Lees army was in its turn de-
stroyed, and the meaning OF the events
may be grasped Russia, France and
Germans and Austrians, and in the
killing Of Austrians Italy is helping.
The four allied powers have for the
first time obtained the offensive-they
are all attacking-their issues are
pooled. A German reverse. an Austrian
collapse, wherever it may occur, will be
actually of the same value in the larger
game that is afoot.
Face Months of Pounding.
The war may be won for the allies in
the east quite as completely as in the
west. Germany and Austria may be
exhausted by Russian efforts along the
Niemen, the Bug and the Dniester quite
as satisfactorily as by the French and
British on the Somme and the Mouse
The great problem now is whether Ger
many, with Austria, can stand the next
four months of steady pounding-a
pounding just beginning in the west.
Turning now to the Anglo-French
operations along the Somme. 1 should
like to recall what l said two weeks
ago in discussing the probable charac-
ter of 1.-The great drive" which did not
actually begin for several days after 1
had speculated about it.
In that article l pointed out that the
main attack was likely to come between
the Somme and the city of Lille. and
that the immediate detectives on this
front were La Bassee, Lens, Bapaume
and Peronne. that behind these lay the
more important railroad centers of
Douai, LIE Cateau, Cambria and ST.
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