The Washington herald., 1916-07-16
Great Trade Struggle Between
Allies and German Powers
Planned at Recent Paris
Conference.
By JOHN L. BALDER yToN.


fred the opening gun Of the WAR After
Pesce," a worldwide war Of markets in
which there are to be no neutrals. Eco
nonlic principles, law Of supply and de-
n1and. old time reciprocities and tariff,
are all to be abandoned, to be replaced
cipal aim will be to impoverish enemy
powers
I'VE don't care II the price Of food in
England Is permanently doubled. so long
as Germany Is kept down." remarked q
leading politician. and the statement
expresses the new economic gospel
At the present moment, the allied
powers are delighted to be able to i'm
port goods from the United States, Ger
many Is envious because the British fleet
Will not permit her to do likewise. When
peace breaks out" the United States
may or may not be invited to join the
allied trade union, and practically boy
colt the central powers by putting
prohibittve import and perhaps export
tariff on goods sent to and from Ger
many, Austria, Bulgaria and Turkey.
Opinion as to whether America will be
invited into the union has not yet crystal
lizsd. but such an invitation will prob
ably be violently opposed for CONNER
cial reasons by Canada and Australia
American May Refuse.
Unless America Jettisons her historic
principles about European entanglements,
she will refuse to enter into such an
arrangement II asked. And then? The
central powers would be glad to have
the United States in their zollverein but
to ask Uncle Sam to refuse to trade
with England, not to say Canada, is
obviously absurd. What is all this to
us?" the American will say. Let them
cut one another's throats; how Will their
agreements AFFECT US if We stay out of
thern?"
The war after peace, in the opinion
OF every authority have questioned for
months past, must draw the United
states into its vortex. The present plans
Of the two groups Of powers are d.
rected against each other not against
the United States, but in Furnishing their
enemies the belligerents will also punish
themselves, as they are well aware
German and British trade, no matter
what arrangements are made with
friendly nations, will be terribly crippled.
Most Favored Nation.
1t will be impossible for Germany or
Britain, staggering under the uneconomic
restrictions imposed by themselves and
their enemies to meet the competition of
the United States if America Is admitted
under most favored nation" terms by
both the allied economic union and the
German zollvereIn.
For self-protection, the two alliances
must see that there are no trade neutrals
reaping the maximum benefit from both
sides and hit by none Of the restrictions
imposed by each side on its enemies
This is well understood, and the cry OF
no neutrals" simply means that some
or all Of the ennbarsoes and tariff walls
erected against enemy powers will be
maintained against such other countries
as refuse to enforce the leagues pro-
gramme against its foes
oh ir{a
regarding the position OF the United
States when the trade war begins is i'm
possible in London, and have no doubt
officials in Paris and Berlin also take
the view that the task of preparing an
unprecedented economic upheaval is
heavy enough without worrying about
what neutrals will say or do.
HandIcaps Being Overcome.
It Is now evident that the formidable
obstacles in the way are being overcome,
and that the allied union and the op-
posing zolIverein will be composed of
two groups Of nations whose members
will carry on approximate free trade
among themselves, and practically no
trade with their enemies. Free Trade"
may not be literally adopted by the allies,
as II is likely to be by the Germanic
powers, but the allied countries will en-
courage commerce with each other as
much as is possible without injuring their
own industries.
Before explaining the present plans
Of the allied and Germanic alliances,
a few questions may be suggested to
show how perplexing and how i'm
portant the American tariff issue"
grown out Of itself, is likely to be-
come-in my opinion certain to be-
come-as soon as peace is signed. How
can the United States maintain pro-
tective tariff, or even a tariff for reve-
nue. only, and expect to be allowed free
trade with either alliance, when each
alliance has a prohibitive tariff wall
against its enemies? How can America
expect to be allowed to join both al
lances, when such a step would make
New York the financial capital of the
world and give every American ex-
porter and importer a tremendous ad-
vantage over hls foreign competitor.
whether British or German?
Would Coerce Small Powers.
How can America expect treatment
different from other neutrals, when
one avowed object OF the trade groups
is to coerce small countries, dependent
on their large neighbors for goods,
into joining the economic alliance and
hence coming into the political orbit
of London or Berlin? II, for instance,
Greece Joined the allied union to get
coal and food at fair prices, and under
Compulsion, put an embargo on Ger
man trade, would not Greece in the
next war inevitably find herself Ger
many's enemy? Germany, her econ
omists admit. hopes by this means TO
draw Holland, Roumania, Sweden and
Denmark into the zollverein.
These questions are suggested to
give food reflection. To attempt an
swers at this time would be merely
wild speculation. and the answers
would be political beliefs Of the speak
er. But these questions, or others
like them, will arise, and answers must
be found
Protests Continue.
The protests and lamentations of
advanced liberals in England and the
social democratic parties in central
Europe over the economic war con-
tinue, but with the signing Of the allied
economic paco in Paris on June II, the
last chance Of avoiding such a strug-
gle vanished. The steps leading up
to the declaration OF the economic war
are curiously similar to those which
brought on the present armed struggle.
ard, in each case, responsibility is