The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1916-01-03

politics II may be said that the worst
which the country apparently has In
store for II Is at least as good as what
1t has now. Then there is the trouble
some position Of labor. a consequence
Of the pressure Of business activity In
all employment with a developing short
age In the face Of a growing demand
for workmen skilled and unskilied. The
labor problem will be a brake on too
rapid business expansion. even though II
Is likely that trade and Industrial
profits will permit wage increases to pro-
vide at least a temporary solvent Of most
labor troubles.
Emphasis. perhaps preponderant en-
phasis. may he appropriately placed on
the abnormal elements in our conditions.
for we must adjust our perspectives to
the temporary character OF the war fac
tors which are operating with such enor-
nous force. Yet the abnormal elements
In the situation are not all. Their are
very real and substantial facts Of a nor
mai nature at the foundation OF the
business recovery and expansion In which
we are engaged. These normal influences
are contributing more and more strongly
to the progress Of expansion. and Il Is
chiefly such normal influences which
make the outlook for 1915 one Of pros
porous promise. provided we keep both
our heads and u feet.
Our banking position was never 40
strong as to-day, with its gold reserves
augmented anh still In process OF aug
mentation by gold importations and with
tho buttress afforded by the Federal re-
serve banking system. We have had
since the outbreak Of the war two bum
per crop years. the harvests Of 1915 hav-
ing broken all records for abundance
and for additions to national wealth
estimated in terms OF dollars. Our for
eign trade II still moving on an enor-
nous and record breaking scale. with
indications that the trade balance OF
shout $l.I5O. 000. 900 In 1915 will he
equalled in the current year. We arr
entering 1919 with all lines OF domestic
trade and industry active and many
branches Of endeavor operating TO ca
pacity. with business booked for delivery
as far ahead as the December quarter.
Domestic buying IL competing heavily
with foreign purchases In the basic mar
.kets, and those barometric gauges iron,
steel copper are giving a reading Of
prices and volumes which inspires en-
pectatlon OF a prolonged persistence of
unprecedented levels OF profit.
Nothing was more auspicious In the
year which has Just ended nor In It's
forecast fpr the future than the re-
covery or railroad earnings and the re-
habhitation OF railroad credit. Novem-
Der returns Of revenue have been sur
passing all previous monthly exhibits
and a foundation has been laid for new
railroad financing which means a IA
mliiar vigorous stimulus TO the forward
movement Of trade and industry. New
enterprise. which has languished for
years. is stirring again and carital Ia
taking advantage OF the opportunities
and Inducements which offer to venture
out for the exploitation of new avenues
OF wealth creating endeavor. In gem
eral 1915 provided for a reap,ng OF
financial and commercial profits which
have been only partially gathered and
will tell more effectively in the pro-
ductive expenditures Of 1916.
The optimistic facts OF the whole si.-
uation are all summarized in the state
o. the securities market. Despite the
return OF possibly a billion and a half
dollar Of u bonds, notes and shares
from abroad In the past year we have
been able to move far along in the re-
versal OF u status from that OF a
debtor nation to that Of a creditor nation
by loans to other countries represented
in a total Of fully a billion dollars II
foreign securities which have been
1oated here. How enormously )u- re.
sodrces nave been recruited Is amply
eylnred by the fac hat rs me lew
yea begins the averase " represents.
zee bond prices is fully n-s ro,n,s
mghe: than II was a year ago. whils the
ave,ag. Of representative shares Is from
- Ia 25 points higher. n ~. ~srecirl-
.ies. watch have risen no extensively.
wcr" included the average OF quoted val
ues would probably be disclosed At a lew
maximum. Nor in this exhibi. is any-
thing more impressive than the mOmer-
tum' OF expansion which railroad
stocks have been revealing lately
against foreign selling. The confidence
making statements Of earnings are only
partially responsible for the absorption
OF railroad shares. A very large con-
trIbution has been made by the signs
that political attitudes are changing
sufficiently TO indulge the common car
riers with some release from the oppres-
sions of Government regulation.
4 survey of all the principal factors
OF value leads IL the conclusion that
there il a valid basis for confidence,
There Is plenty of money which is seek
Ing employment and finding increasing
incentives for it's occupation. As long
as we do not lose sight of the abnormal
factors and continue TO relate them b
the future our progress will he meas
urably sound and reasonably safe.