The Bridgeport evening farmer., 1916-05-23
Olew's Financial Review.
(Henry Clews.)

(Etenry CleWS-I
 Business interests are still chiefly dominated by the war. The impress sion that peace is near is gaining in strength daily Germany undoubtedly aesires a settlement if satisfactory terms can be arranged Unfortunate H, while positive efforts may be made tn this direction the outlook for inn mediate success is doubtful Each of the Allies have heavy demands to make on Germany, demands to which Ehe is not likely to consent Great Britain, Russia and France are on The ascendant of power in greater degree than at any time since the war began. They have not yet had full opportunity to assume the offensive and strike their strongest blow, with put which it seems certain they Wlli not consent to peace. Therefore, while the desire for peace exists, and while soTne preliminary efforts in it's dlrec- lion are entirely within the range Of probability, the outlook for an actual suspension of hostiities appears re- mote The Mexican trouble seems 10 have passed out of serious considera- lion as a market factor, although still H source of considerable anxiety to the administration at Washington Poh- tics also appear to be factor Of In1- nor importance from the business standpoint and this campaign is at. tractfng less interest than any presf- dentiaF contest in many years. mainly of course because 1t is overshad dowed dn the public mind by war in Europe and our own difficulties with Mexico.
 The labor outlook is causing consid- erable perplexity in industrial circles Wages have advanced in many in stances, especially in nnunnition plants, as a result of war profits. It IS rec ognized, however, that war proflts are purely ephemeral, and that when peace comes, as it might within the year, these will quickly melt away, including the extra profits enjoyed by many of the industrials outside of the war group. There are rea1lys two points Of view regarding the labor outlook One is that when the war is over, if not before, there will be a slump in everything pertaining to the munition industry: that a sharp inter national struggle will immediately De- gin for the markets of the world; that Europe will be on much lower cost basis than the United States; that in consequence our exports Of manufac- t1res which nearly trebled in the last nine months, would shrink back to their former basiss and that conse- Quently there will be over-production and sharp industrial setback fol- lowed by lower prices and vanishing profits It is quite certain that sooner or later some readjustment will be necessary, if we are to meet foreign competition and gain the firm footing
 
 is becoming a national ambition Profits will have to return to normal, and costs win undoubtedly be reduced But the question that chiefly per plexes managers is, will labor be w1l- fng to accept it's share of the fnevita.- b1s readjustment? Probably not, and 1his is difficulty that may have to be solved before many months have passed. There is still another point of view, which is this: Keen foreign I-.-
 avOidable when the war is over; but 1t is arHyed that we will be better prepared to meet that competition than is generally supposed Foreign competition, it is argued, will not be go severe as many imagine, because wages in Europe will remain relative Ay high owing to the reduced supply of labor and the excessive taxes which labor wi1 have to aid in paying Fur EhermoEe, neither Germany nor Great Britain will waste much time before endeMyoring to regain lost ground; i; 1heir recovery and readjustment will necessarily be gradual; consequently while labor here may resist a read 51stmenf, it will probably gradually eouprnntse as leaders conae to realize widely, divergent views of the labor outlook It is question if either view is entirely correct, and a so1u- &fom in all probability will be found Between the two An important fac tor in the labor outlook will be the Mnmigration movement; some authori- Hes expecting a large outflow from this country when peace arrives, while DtherS anticipate a large influx. The latter is the most probable, because of the unwilHngness and the difficult dies which soldiers will experience in returning to their former occupations. Moreover the better opportunities of fered in this country will attract large numbers from countries where depreS- sion is keenest. Great Britain is aI- ready calculating upon many of her nlen leaving the United Kingdom, and is planning to divert them to their col Ondes; Canada already being engaged fin making plans and Inducements for Hneir coming. A large influx to this country must be expected from Rus ,sia, Hungary. Italy and possibly from Germany; though the latter is prob 9ematica1 and would be offset by the large number expecting to return to the F'atherland fog family and fnan- IciaI reasons as well as from motives iof curiosity and interest.
 The effect of the war upon our for feign trade can be realized by the fact that between its commencement in 1914 and the end of last March our exports have reached the stupend ous itoa1 of aearTy $4,ooo. 900, 900. Our inn ports during the same period were a1- most g, ,00o. .0oo, ,O00 so that the excess exports during the war period have approximately S8,o00, 900 ,oo0 In addi- ton we exported $71, ,000, 900 of silver, net and our net imports of gold were over S120, COG. 900. How is this huge in debtedness being adjusted7 Credit and loans have been granted upon a gigantic scale, while the return of se- curities, of which there has been no accurate estimate, must also have been enormous in volume: very large sums still being in the hands of local financial institutions as collateral It fse well known that American rail- roads, whose wants have lately been put at s1 GOO ,Ooo, 900 yearly, have made unusually small security issues. for