South Bend news-times. (South Bend, Ind.) 1913-1938, 1916-01-10
WAR DOMINATES
j. s. BUSINESS
CIeWS Finds Home Conditions
Satisfactory But Conflict
Brings Uncertainties.
BY Henry Clews.

Of conflicting tend encies. our home
conditions are exceedingly satsfac-
tory and thoroughly Justify reason
able optimism. If we had nothing fur
Their 70 calculate upon than the ef-
| fects of a good harvest, a satisfac-
tory bank position and a substan-
tial recovery in domestic trade, the
outlook would be comparatively
clear and even the doubts of pres
identiaI year would not be over
whelmingly serious. But the great
conflict across the sea is still raging
and remains the one great dominat-
ing factor. injecting a series of grave
uncertainties which unavoidably
modify all other expectations.
II is automatic that war invaria-
blv creates new activities. high prices
and general initiation. We are In
the midst Of Just such movements as
these at the present time, and they
create "a sense of prosperity which Is
not only transient but somewhat mis-
| leading and full of pitfalls and dan
gers. These dangers must be assio-
uously watched. If we are TO escape
them or minimize their penalties
Initiation is really by far the great
est of these hazards. and as rule Is
| based upon either unsound eNpah-
sion of credit or exaggerated proIlts.
| Credit conditions in the United
states already show an enormous eX-
pansion. though so far the danger
limit appears to have been avoided
because our bankers have been fully
alive 10 the risks in this direction.
The chief source of initiation has
been the bulging profits of few in
dustriais whose earnings were enor-
nously swollen by highly prottanIe
war contracts. Fortunately. this dan
ger seems to have been fully real
lied. and strong efforts have been
made to restrain any further UNI
wholesome speculation in these
specialties. When the facts are taken
into consideration, it is remarkable
that a serious collapse has been so
successfully averted. and this must
be credited TO the wide margin oI
safety with which many of THESE
war order enterprises have been H.
nanced.
Gary Warning Needed.
Judge Gary recently issued time
" note Of warning which was direct
ed in another direction than war in
dustrials. and that was our torelSn
trade. Here indeed is a field in
which prudence and thOughtfulness
will he greatly needed. The war
has profoundly disturbed our for
eigE commerce, stimulating 1t IN
tenselv in ways never anticipated.
When peace comes, if not before,
some of this activity will cease
There will be no more munition or
ders. and the problem then will ee
how far can we retain the regular
trade gained from other countries
during the war. Germany Will I'M
doubtedly make a heroic struggle
for recovery. but her ability to eX-
port will be Handicapped for an indet-
mite period by heavy taxation. by
the loss of many skilled hands and by
general initiation within her own
territory. France and Belgium VIII
he chiefly occupied with recOnStruc-
ton. Great Britain will be better
prepared for foreign trade than any
other country, unless 1T be ourselves
The chances are then that for some
time after peace is declared we Will
bc able to hold our own in the eX-
port trade. especially If our bankers
ad Industrial leaders succeed in pre-
venting domestic initiation, which
would close the door upon exports
and invite serious home derange-
ments OF course. when peace does
come. our foreign trade will have
To 60 through another period of ad-
iustrnent. but that should be less Vi
client than what accompanied the
opening of the war. and will be more
easily met for the reason that the
crisis will be over and all energies
will be bent toward reconstruction.
To a certain extent therefore Judge
Gary is unduly peSsimistc, and does
not take into sufficient consideration
the growing ability OF the United
states to meet foreign competition.
C,r industries are no longer in
state of infancy. and the corporation
over which Judge Gary presides
happens TO be one of the greatest
industrial giants the world has ever
seen.
Congress has reaSsembled, and
with il comes the somewhat en-
HANGED risk OF excitement in our
foreign relations Unless undue pres
sure is placed upon the adninistra-
ton. il would look as if our govern
ment will be able TO remain friendly
relations with all the belligerents.
our disputes with Germany and Aus
tria are in fair way of being ad-
iusted and IL is TO be hoped that
the hands Of the president Will not
be forced by any unwise or hasty
action in congress. The Lusitania
incident appears to be nearing a set
tle1aent. SO. too, are our other diff
ferences with Austria and Germany.
In view OF the fact the principle Of
our contentious have been acknowl-
edged and agreed 10 as basis OF
settlement. similar occurrences,
which may be many before the war
ends. should not cause serious alarm
as we now have a precedent for their
settlement Therefore. angry dis
cussions relating 10 such matters
should now be modified in tone at
least. We must remember what Gen.
sherman said during our own civil
war that war is Hell"
Business satisfactory.