The Washington herald., 1916-08-20
ALLIED ATTACK WILL LAST
UNTIL VICTORY is ACHIEVED

certainty that the acquisition is per-
manent, that the Germans will not
| launch another attack somewhere and
| win. 1t back again?
This is a most important point, for II
the strategical initiative, having been
won from the central powers, is liable
| to be lost again, there Is no justification
| in saying that because the allies have
| 1t now the course of the war has per-
manently altered and that there will be
no further German onslaughts like those
| whose object In the past has been de-
cisively to defeat the enemy.
There is. however, probably no serious
military critic in Europe who would dis
1 pute the statement that the initiative
once lost by Germany can never be re-
gained in this war. There are several
reasons for this. The most important
| Is that Germany and her principal ally,
| Austria Hungary, have used up their
central reserves Of men which must be
drawn upon to make great attacks. They
are now compelled to use such reserves
as remain to them to thwart the efforts
| OF the British. French and Russians to
crush their lines and defeat their armies,
an effort none the less menacing because
| II will not approach a climax for many
months.
One plausible argument only have
| heard to the contrary put forward by
an officer, who believes that the Ger
mans will execute a great retreat both
east and west in order to shorten by
one-half the lines they are compelled to
hold, and will then, with the mass OF men
set free by this manoeuvre, resume their
old tactics and strike violently upon some
one trout
BY this means, the officer holds, there
/ is a chance, although very small one,
| that the strategical initiative might be
temporarily regained. That such an at
tack will be made even II a retreat can
| be carried out seems a fantastic theory
to most students OF the war. since 1t
would be the worst possible tactics un-
! less there was a prospect OF the attack
succeeding "One fact alone is enough
to knock that on the head" said a stafr
officer, the Germans cannot carry out
| a retreat to their own borders without
| losing half their field armies-we will
take care OF that-and having lost half
| their men how will they be in a better
| position to strike again for a decision
| than they are now. even though their
lines are half as long?"
One most important point remains to
| which particular attention must be call
ed. 1t has been said. and said correctly,
since the beginning of the war that
time fights on the side of the allies"
suade England to wake up, once called
ime a doubtful neutral" Time was
with the allies. and against the Germans
because the Germans were fighting for
a decision, with better armies and more
guns. but less potential resources both
In man and munition power. The Ger
mans, trying to win the war, sought to
destroy their enemies before this poten-
tial power could be made effective.
But with the loss of the StrateRica1 in
itiative the German hope to win the war
! ended. Their race against time was lost.
Just as soon as they found themselves
unable longer to prevent the converging
attacks Of their enemies by attacks of
their own. the STATS of the central powers
were compelled to adopt the tactics long
used by the allies. They are now seek
ing to wear out the attacking forces to
compel them to expend more lives and
shells than the position they take and
the Germans they kill are worth.
Change in Initiative.
In a certain sense, then, the change in
the initiative means that time. formerly
, on the side OF the allies is now on the
side OF the Germans. This is true to the
extent that such attacks as are now in
progress in France and Russia are more
exhausting to the attacking side and can
not be continued indefinitely without re-
Germany, now suffering more privations
than her enemies, may seem to make the
statement paradoxical, but it is true that
time fights for the German armies
whether time fights against the German
people by increasing their hardships to
the extent that an unbeaten army may
some day be forced into surrender is
another matter. Personally 1 do not be-
lieve 1t, and I think German civilians
will hold out indefinitely when they fully
realize the harsh terms 1t is proposed to
impose upon them, but there is much evil
dence that would tend to prove the op-
posite.
The brilliant analysis OF the military
situation at present which I am privileged
to give below was drawn up by a most
dtstinuished officer, whose position pre-
vents his name being used. 1T is fairly
safe TO say" he said. that the public
hardly grasps the full meaning of the
change arising out of the tactical often
sive passing to our side, for the turn
over in conditions. Let US see broadly
what was the course Of the war until so
recently as June
''On the other hand, speaking in terms
which are of necessity general, the pow