New-York tribune., 1916-06-20
Administration Officials
Count on Famine in
Event of War.
RESERVES ALREADY
CURBED BY EMBARGO
Munitions Makers Declare Car
rama Could Fight Less
Than Month.
From The Trihuns Bureau. J

Washington. June l9.-The Admins
tration is counting on an ammunition
famine In Mexico If war develops from
the present situation. Carranza has
been a large importer of arms and
munitions from this country until re-
Gently, when shipments across the bor-
der we're ordered stopped on the pre-
text that their real destination could
not be ascertained, and that they might
fall into the hands of the bandits
The real reason. however, as pointed
cut in Carranza's last note, was the de-
sire Of decreasing Carranza's reserves
in case of a rupture. Shipments by
water TO Vera Cruz also have been de-
tanned in several instances, though
there was TO question of their destina-
tion.
Carranza has a large ammunition tac-
tory at Vera Cruz and smaller es'aD-
lishments at other points. Shortly oe-
fore the present trouble the Mexican
government announced that 10 had sur
fcient facilities for manufacturing lD5
own munitions, but this Is not DelleVe9
70 be the case in view OF the coht'hueu
orders from this country.
Army officers believe Carranza's re-
serves Of ammunition arc ALREADY. run
ming low, and that IN the case ol va.
thev would be exhausted IN n snort
time. As war would mean the blockade
Of his norts. there would be no otner
market open TO him except Guatamala'
whose resources are limited and whose
government is hostile TO Carranza.
Say War Would End Quickly
Unless the United States obligingly
replenishes the Mexican supply Oh
rides. machine guns, powder, shot ana
she'll. no war between the two countries
could possibly continue longer tnan a
month. Many American munitions
dealers in close touch with the situa,
ton predict that Mexican war "oula
fzzle out like wet fire cracker III TWO
weeks from sheer poverty OF war ma
terials on the part OF the MeXlcahs'
Agents of practically all OF the Dig
munitions houses agreed that the MeNl-
can government not only was Wlthou1
more than 30,000,000 cartridges al the
most, but said that it had no means OF
replenishng this meager supply "heh
it was expended.
one group of New York munitlon
factory representatives yesterday an
nounced that. while there might De
30 OOO. 900 cartridges in Mexico to-day
the supply probably was nearer "
600 900. Accepting Carranzas state
ment that he will put 100000 men IN
the field. this means that each man
will be given sixty rounds of ammunl-
ton. or less than sufficient for one day
OF real fighting. Should the Carranza
army number but 100000 men. as 1t IS
reported to number by many OF those
who have estimated his available hght-
ing forces, each soldier will 90 into the
war with 800 rounds of ammunition
that is, il none is shot away IN mid
night raids and wasted in local fight
ing. ,-;1..
Estimating the number Of cartridges
in Mexico at the largest number men
toned and the number of soldiers 70
shoot il at the smallest, the war might
last two or three weeks before 1t was
exhausted. Then, presuming that an
American blockade was effective, II
could not continue unless the Mexican
soldiers agreed 10 90 into battle armed
only with bayonets, knives or the prim.
tive weapons that preceded the use oi
firearms.
I .La