New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-01-02
Fewer Cars in 1916
Prediction of Expert
Richard H. Scott General Manager of the Reo
Company, Says Only Oldest and Best
Established Manufacturers Can Pro-
duce as Many Cars as In 1915.
CANNOT GET MATERIAL OR MACHINERY.

There will not. can not, he as many
automobiles made in the coming year
~ We made in the past year." says
Richard II. Scott. vice-president and
general manager Of the REQ Motor Car
Company.
That statement will come rs sur
prise TO most persons outside the auto
mobile industry, and will be disputed
by g good many inside. perhaps" said
Mr.. Scott. Nevertheless l make il in
full knowledge Of its importance and
with confidence that the future will
bear me out.
"If we were TO accept the figures that
are given out by the various concerns
rs to their plans for the coming year
Gnd the increased number Of cars they
propose making we would conclude that
fully twice rs many automobiles would
be made in 1916 as were made in 1915.
That the reverse will prove true | am
certain.
do not misunderstood me. DO not
wish 20 impugn the methods nor TO
question the sincerity of those who
contemplate large expansion. | DO not
doubt they intend tor, rather, that
they hope to-make as many as they
say they will, but | think l am pretty
closely in touch with the conditions,
and | have just concluded a very thor
ough investigation of the material and
the machinery market, and as result
of that Investigation / assert that less
automobiles will be made during the
coming year than during the past.
"lf TO will it were 20 do 1t, 'twould
be done.
"If this were normal year it would
be possible.
Under normal conditions capital
could accomplish almost anything. But
we have an abnormal condition-in
fact, an unprecedented condition-and
for that reason / consider IL insur-
mountable.
Take the raw material market, for
example. The European demands are
such that t is now impossible TO OBJ
tain some kinds of raw material in any
increased quantities. At this moment
aluminium castings cost So cents a
pound-ss against 30 10 45 cents In
normal years. Brass, tin, steel, iron
"-tNGlNlIlUE lN HOL ull4g dbIoA "a
high. but the output CT all the mills
has been contracted for. and il is now
impossible for a manufacturer 70 OBJ
tain more than that for which he con-
tracted several months ago. And, IN
less he is financially strong enough
TO enforce delivery. he NAV not hope
even TO get that for which he con-
tracted.
"When the owner Of commodity
has a customer ready 10 pay him twice
the price at which he contracted to
sell the same thing some months ago
he Is very liable TO take the cash and
let the credit go.' In other words. TO
supply the customer who is willing TO
pay high and pay cash and let the
other customer wait.
Then take the machinery market:
There Is perhaps the most difficult
situation of all. Il is rot only difficult,
81 is impossible.
"How often do we hear the exclama-
ton, "What an opportunity 90 start a
new automobile company" as people
see the tremendous over-demand for
our product.
at would be a great opportunity
II one could get the machinery or the
raw ma !erials. But. being unable 10
get eth er. how is one going 10 start
"Some Of the leading concerns will
undoubtedly produce more automobiles
during 1916 than they did in 1915.