Evening public ledger. [volume] (Philadelphia [Pa.]) 1914-1942, 1916-03-24

disaster lies. the field, deadlock, PO-
| liticnlly the change in Germany's conscious
ness Is the most important event, II fore
tells the end Of Germany's great Illusion
MO TALK of peace, no peace terms which
| lN have come out Of Europe i'm the last six
months were so tnged with the air of prob
| ability as those which have persstently been
| reported this week. Except for the pre-.
! posterous demand for indemnity from France,
a still undefeated belligerent, the suggested
status provides a working basis for a peace
conference.
Terms. however are the materials out OF
which diplomats may build "satisfactlons' and
honors for their rulers and their citizens, BE.
hind them there rests changed attitude of
mind, representing transformation in the
political and social fabric Of the countries in.
volved. Just because the evidences OF such
changes have been piling up day after day,
the new talk of peace may be taken seri'
ously. At last the judgment of mankind seems
to accord with its dearest wish.
The financial military and socio.potical sit
uations of the belligcrents all throw light upon
the new conditions when peace may be dis
cussed without illusion and without threats.
The first of these. In n war which has so
many commercial implications. is of vast i'm.
portance, but only the mere outlines are avail
able Germany has financed herself up TO this
time by a series Of domestic loans Her in
trepid secretary OF the treasury, Doctor Helf
ferch, spoke confidently eighteen months ago
of war financed without taxes. and for a
time interest on one loan paid from the
proceeds of its successor That means that the
disaster of compound interest was accepted II
has since been discarded. The Allies have
borrowed abroad and at home, and have en-.
,trI, In,
times OF peace, would be confscatory. What
ever the methods of securing money, the eX-
penditure remains the same and the same
German financer told the Rechstag that they
and their allies had spent, in the first 20
months of war, S12,5OO,OO0.O0O. while their
enemies had spent than twice that
amount Germany herself is now being
duced to the comparatively small sum of half
a billion dollars a month for war expenses
only. Comment on these figures Is unneces-
sary. Last year the buying power of the pound
sterling reached its lowest point; the buying
power of the mark is at a corresponding level
at present. Regardless of financial stability,
neither side can afford the war much longer.
The military factors making for peace are
no more difficult to understand Sympathizers
with Germany admit that England still main.
tains superiority the sea. Sympathizers
with the Allies compelled to say that
Germany has not been and probably cannot
be decisively defeated on land The sole point
in dispute is whether the Allies can be so
defeated on land. The almost incredible eff
forts at Verdun will be partial proof of this
problem, but not conclusive proof. The in
creasing momentum of the Russian advance
will, if unchecked nullify any victory at Yer
dun, because it will indicate how completely
centred Germany's attack must be before it
succeed. The summaries of the mill
tary situation vary with the affections of
those who make them The neutral observer
knows only that the number of effective men
is being gradually depleted beyond the hope
of rehabilitation that Germany has conquered
her smallest adversaries and has invaded fruit
Iessly the territory of two greater enemies;
that Germany has lost a vast area in her
colonial possessions, for which the very terms
of peace now proposed demand restitutioni
that the prospects of victory for Germany
decrease with the growing armies and the re-
plenished munitions of her enemies; that the
prospect of a victory for the Allies, except the
victory which comes of exhaustion, is hardly
brighter today than IT was in November
1914.
The final set of conditions. vaguely called
socopolitical, arise out of the other two; but
they may become the determining factor. Ger
many reports that France is exhausted; the
difficulties of England are notorious from ac-
counts OF her own patriots. Now for the first
time, we learn of great political struggle in
Germany. With its source in the U-boat con-
troversy and its impetus in the dismissal of
Won Tirpitz, it actually involves the entire
question of militarism; If it ends as it has
begun there will be ample reason for the
Allies to agree to peace, for they will have
crushed the power of the German military
oligarchy.
1t is fairly indicated that the German peo
pie have become resentful of the trick played
upon them. 1t is certain that the Emperor
his Premier, his Foreign Office and major
ity Cby a small margin) of his responsible
counselors in the Reichstag have turned their
faces against such prosecution OF the war as
involves the enmity of neutrals. That is only
a faint response to the disaffection in the
German people-a disaffection born not of
lack Of patriotism, but OF surfet Of sorrow A
successful war might justify all sacrifices; it
might even justify the sacrifice of every hu.
man principle of right and justice. But mourn
ing for the dead is not the happlest moment
for believing what diplomats say. and the Ger
man people have lost their illusion of God
given destiny. When the Government con-
fesses this loss, the war may well end.