The sun., 1916-10-30
WILSON WAVEI IN N.Y.
STATE Is RECEDING
Barncs's Estimate Of 10000
Plurality. for Hughes
May BE Beaten.
G. O. p. BETTER ORGANIZED
Party Leaders Believe Their
Resources Will Bring Vic
tory After Hard Work.

SYRACUSE. n. Y. Oct. 2a.-william
Barnes Is quoted as putting the plurality
which Charles +. Hughes will get In
New York at a minimum Of 10000. II
conditions in the rest OF the State-in
western New York and along the south
In northeastern New York Mr.. Hughes
will do better than the Barnes esti-
mate.
Northeastern New York IL standing up
s,urdily for Hughes and the Republican
state ticket against n wave Of Wilson
sentiment that up to a week ago had
the Republican leaders in that terri
tory scared. Some OF them are still
timid, but for the most part they are
satisfied that the worst Is over. Signs
multiply hat the Wilson wave has
spent its force aud Is receding. The
trend is back to Hughes.
A scare two weeks before election.
the Republican leaders say. was prob
ably the best thing that could happen
for Mr.. Hughes. 1t has made an end
Of cocksureness in the Hughes cam-
paign. There won't be any more over
confidence. the leaders say, nothing but
hard work n close attention to BUSH
tess.
II is admitted by Republicans that the
situation calls for earnest work and a lot
Of 1t between now and election day. The
margin of safety In IN indicated plu-
rality of $4,000 for Hughes Is not great /:
Il does not make the average Republic
can feel any too secure.
Attitude of the Leaders.
The Republican leaders say they are
not banking at all on any Hughes
plurality now visible above the political
horizon. They expect a Hughes victory
In his State on November 7, but they
expect II because they believe the
Hughes campaign has resources superior
to those the Democrats can command
and because they know a more efficient
organization will be behind Hughes to
see to 1t that his full vote Is polled.
what. after all. they say, is an in
dicated plurality of $4,000 or $4,000 In
q State In which 1900, 900 votes will
be cast? In the ballot boxes such a
plurality or half or one-third of It would
be satisfying. But as merely indicated
Il O to little more h a n guess
This the well INFORMED politician knows
Democrats talk 81 n Wilson plurality
OF $4,000 to 100 900 in the State. The
Democrats. OF curse. are merely guess.
ing. Their guess and the estimate Of
10000 for Hughes made by Mr.. Barnes
seem wide apart. but they are not really
so far apart.
For example. take the vote in any cit,
IN the State. A careful Assembly dis
trict leader looking over the registration
figures for his district will mark on
per cent. from the total in estimating
the probable vote on election day. HI
knows by experience that about 8 pei
cent. Of the voters who register do not
get their votes into the ballot boxes
They are out Of town on business oi
pleasure or they are III or have moved
Into another district. For one cause OF
another s per cent. Of them fail to vote
Margin Of Victory.
Here. in the absentees alone. Is 8
PERCENTAGE OF tho vote which IL 1t coul'
be got into the Ballot boxes for a par
ticular candidate would change the re
suit In any election. Taking $50 as tn,
average vote OF an election district TIT
8 per cent. that must be marked OF 10
absentees gives 20 voters In the dis
trict who nave been at pains to reg
lister but who, nevertheless. lose tn Ell
votes.
In New York State, with somcwha
less than 5000 election districts, a turn
over OF five votes In each district woul'
account for a $4,000 plurality-or wip'
1t out. Yet four times that many voter
in almost any 'city district fail TO pu
their votes in the ballot box to b.
counted.
Right there is where efficient orgaus