The Daily Ardmoreite. [volume] (Ardmore, Okla.) 1893-current, 1916-05-10
An Estimate of German Losses.

| powers supply OF men, lne estimate
of German losses made by the we'll
known military critic, Hilaire Belloc,
in Land and Water will have pro-
found significance Belloc recently
visited Paris for the purpose of OBJ
| tanning data of an official character
gathered by the Intelligence Bureau
of the French War Department. and
it Is largely upon the material thus
secured that the following analysis
is based
The point of departure of Belloc's
study is the official lists published by
the German Government from the
| outbreak of the war to the 3lst of
January, 1916. The number of Off
cal lists thus published is $50. and
the total number of German dead on
these lists is G51,76S. This total, it
is claimed, is not complete, for over
and above the number admitted as
dead, the official lists give a certain
number as missing. The missing can
conceivably cover only three cate
gories: First, prisoners in the hands
of the allies; second, deserters; third,
dead left upon the battlefield after a
German retirement. The number of
prisoners is, of course, known TO the
allies with precision; the number of
deserters is negligibly small, the de-
votion and patriotism of the German
people being answerable for that.
After deduCting the known number
of prisoners and a small percentage
for desertiCp, it is certain that the
romalndD represents a number of
Germans who, though dead, appear
under the category of missing" The
total figure thus reached is 10000.
adding this to the official list of
65l,7 gives total of $1,000 dead,
up to and including the last day of
January, 1916.
Having established that figure by
the Governments own statistics, Bel
loc proceeds to apply certain tests of
accuracy which certainly seem to in
dicate that the published lists do not
represent the total losses, by death
of the German army. The method
used was to check the official lists by
comparing them. with lists published
by private authorities in Germany
trade unions. professional corpora
tions, and the like. These include
parochial lists drawn up in the vii
lagos and published with legitimate
pride as proof of patriotism; lists of
the dead drawn up by unions of var
ious kinds, religious and industrial;
"roll-of- honor" lists given from time
to time by large employers of labor;
and, finally, the lists published by
large clubs and associations formed
for purposes of sport. All of these
lists must be correct, because they
are based upon the notifications given
privately by the Government to fam
lilies when one of their members is
killed.
Now comparison Of the private
with the official lists reveals the very
significant fact that for the first two
months of the war the two lists prac-
tically agree. At the beginning of the
winter of 1914, however, grave dis
parity appears and continues through
1918. The death rate established by
the detailed private lists rises regu-
larly and uninterruptedly, whereas
the course of the death rate drawn
from the general public and official
lists as regularly declines The con
clusion, says Belloc, is inevitable; the
private lists give the true death rate;
the public lists, although at first care
fully and fully maintained, give as
the year proceeds figures less and
less reliable.
Instructions were given, in compil-
ing the private lists, to make sure
that the data were gathered from
widely separated points in Germany,
and the greatest care was used to
avoid any partial effect of trade, race
or locality, the object being to obtain |
a combined result that would be
thoroughly representative. BY add |
ing the shortage in the official lists,
as shown by the more accurate pri-
yate lists. it was found that the total
of S1l 900 dead, mentioned above,
would have to be raised on Decem-
ber 81. 1915, to over one million.
The most convincing proof that the
German Government, for military ana
political reasons, is endeavorng 10
conceal from the German people and
from the world at large the extent
of the German losses will be found
in study of the statistics of priS-
oners now in the hands of the allies,
\ list was drawn up by the French
authorities, giving the names regl-
ments. etc, of a great number OIL
prisoners drawn from German units