The Washington herald., 1916-08-06
Present Great Battles, Unlike
Those of Last Autumn, Not
Intended to Crush Foe at
One Blow.
BY JOHN l.. BALDERsTON.
LCopyright. 1851

BY JOHN l.. BALDERsTON.
Copyright, 1861
London, July l9.-The turning point has
been reached. 1t is probable that history
will divide the great war into two main
phases-the first comprising Germans bid
for a decision over her enemies, lasting
from the beginning until this summer
But now the Teutonic tide is ebblng, and
| it is the turn OF the allies. The second
phase of the war sees Germany on the
defensive in east and west, and so far as
figures can prove anything they prove
that this defensive must endure until the
end, for the central powers are not strong
enough to undertake a new offensive any
where. and they are steadily growing
weaker and must continue to decline in
strength absolutely and relatively to their
enemies.
| More conceptions exist and more nom
sense is talked about the present cam
paigns in Europe than at any time since
those first few weeks when the world was
told that the Belgians were vanquishing
the German army. 1t is proposed to ex-
plain here. on thoroughly competent mill
tary authority, the elements of the pres
ent situation. and the simplest way to do
this is to begin by showing what the
high commands Of the allies are not try
ing to do.
The present offensive in the west is not
an attempt to break through the German
lines and destroy the German armies
1t is not an attempt, primarily, to gain
ground.
VIII Not Press in West.
There will be no effort made to win a
decision over the enemy in the West dur
ing this present summer or next autumn.
That statement can be made definitely.
and it is not probable that a decisive
vi ha aft taH CT he
man lines on the east front.
These truths are too hard for the agon-
lied populations of France and England
to bear. and. despite the warnings from
those who know, the people firmly be-
lieve that Germany is on the verge OF
rout. and that peace will be enforced by
the victorious armies of the entente be-
fore the commencement of that third VIM
ter of warfare which all Europe so great
ly breads.
What. then. are the objects Of the at
tacks in Picardy on both sides Of the
Somme, which in the first two weeks of
lighting. I am informed. have cost Eng
land not less than 5000 and France about
5000 men killed and wounded
These bloody battles and the far more
terrible fighting about the Lutsk salient
and in Galiacia are essentially a mere
preparation for the campaign OF 1917.
when it is hoped attacks can be carried
through that will break the German
armies and enforce unconditional surren-
der upon the kaiser. II this cannot be
done next year. the process of attrtion
will be continued and the decisive blows
struck in 1915 say the grim soldiers, al
though in the opinion Of observers, who
are not soldiers, II IS more than doubt
full whether any country will stand more
than another year OF slaughter on the
present scale, whether or not victory can
be achieved.
Paris Plans Followed.
The lighting on all fronts is being
carried out in accordance with the
plans adopted IN Paris last winter at
the war council of the allies by Gen.
Joffre. of France; Gen. Sir William
Robertson, of England. and Gen. Jilin-
sky, of Russia. Gen. Cadorna. of
Italy. though not present at this con-
ference. later visited the general
headquarters OF Britain and France
and agreed to the part laid down by
the greater powers for Italy. The
main program was decided before the
Germans attacked Verdun, and the
German attack in all probability was
mainly designed to upset the plans
for concerted pressure during the
summer and fall of this year.
To some extent the unprecedented
onslaught upon the Meuse and the
Austrian irruption from the Alps to
the verge of the Venetian plain dis
arranged the allied plans. In such a
war as th6 great operations decided
upon long in advance cannot be Who'll
ly concealed from the enemy, and to
some extent are dependent upon the
actions of the enemy. But the full
measure of the failure OF the Ger
mans before Verdun and of the Aus
trians in the Trentino was seen by all
military students when Russia struck
successfully in the southeast last
month and when France and England
commenced their attack some weeks
ago
The Germans and Austrians hoped.
| first, to provoke their chief enemies into a
premature offensive before their plans
were completed and their supply of guns
and shells raised to the required
figure. In this they failed, and the failure
was soon manifest. They then hoped to
postpone indefinitely the allied attack by
compelling their foes to concentrate all
their energies on defending themselves,
and on the main fronts they failed again.
One Minor Success.
! One minor success the central powers
did obtain-they compelled Gen. Cadora
TO concentrate twenty-seven divisions Of
| $4,000 men in the region of the Trentino
! ~ meet lIlt menace 10 nOrtn Italy, ana
| thus, it seems probable to observers here,
prevented the main Italian army from
taking the strategic part in this sum-
mers operations which was assigned it
| by the Paris conference. All Europe
knows that, together with a. British and
French and Russian attack, the Italians
were to move forward across the Isonzo
river, the only sector of their long front
| where an advance would menace the
heart of Austria-Hungary and thus help
Russia by forcing Austria to concentrate
| huge forces of men against Italy.
General CadOrna had to move the men
destined for this operation to the noun
tains far to the west, where their con-
quests cannot materially effect the gen
eral situation. To this extent. then. Aus
tria's attack succeeded, but of vastly
greater Importance is the fact that in
making It she left her Russian front un-
guarded and suffered disaster at the
hands of Brussilof that has cost her more
than $4,000 men captured and killed out
right So in the balance the Austrian
attack on Italy helped the allied plan of
campaign for 1916. 1t is the last weapon
Of the entente against the Teutonic
allies. In the spring, summer and au-
tumn of 1915 great attacks were made on
the Germans at Neuve Chapelle, Notre
a