The Ocala evening star. [volume] (Ocala, Fla.) 1895-1943, 1916-07-04
WEATHER SCIENCE
1t Is Good as Far as 1t Goes, but
1t Doesn't Go Far Enough.
SECRETS HIDDEN IN THE SUN.

Changes In Intensity and Quality of
Solar Rays Cause Effects That Bother
MeteoroIogists-Why Forecasts of
Experts Often Go Astray.
The most imperfect science is mete-
orology. The margin Of error in its
calculations is sometimes enormous
sufficient to completely reverse a pre-
diction
The weather bureau IS a useful in.
stitution, based upon an incomplete
system Of correlated facts of observa-
ton, which are scientific as far as they
go. But there are elements concerned
in the production of weather about
which the methods Of meteoroIogy
give no information.
There are birds, insects and four
footed animals which have an incom-
parably greater foreknowledge of
weather changes than the entire seien-
tif1c corps of the agricultural depart
ment possesses.
When the Projectors of the weather
bureau give warning of an approach
ing storm they act on very much the
same principle as that on which rail
road time table is based. A train hav-
ing been announced by telegraph as
started on a given line viii arrive in
regular succession at certain points
along that line. and station agent at
any given point can. if no accident in
tervenes, foretell the moment of the
trains arrival at his station.
SrorFYl
across the country are in some ways
comparable to trains following a time
schedule. But unfortunately they do
not run on rails, they are not driven by
an invariable force. they are subject to
Interruptions and obstacles of many
kinds, and instead of always keeping
the track and following the course
they frequently wander vaguely about
or take an unexpected turn or else
fade away like exhausted whirls In wa
ter
In fact, the weather bureau predic-
tors are in the same quandary In which
train dispatchers would find themselves
If railroad tracks were shifting lines,
continually drifting this way and that,
getting crossed and entangled or sink
ing into suddenly formed quagmires
and thus disappearing for good.
Meteorology as a science of weather
prediction fails just because it pos
sesses too few facts. With the aid of
the telegraph the weather bureau can
IL lucky follow the trail of q storm
center across the United States, but ii
cannot tell just how new storm is
born nor just when or where it viii
begin it's course
The one only great fact on which IL
bases its whole system of prediction IS
the general tendency of cyclonic dis
turbances in this country to travel east
ward with a northerly trend, while
storms originating around the gulf of
Mexico and the Caribbean sea usually
come up the coast.
But the official weather prognostica
tors are as much in the dark as the or
binary citizen concerning what is going
| to happen In the atmosphere next week.
and they really know nothing about
any storm until after it has begun its
career, and then all that they know is
| the course that it viii take-in case it
doesn't happen to change its mind.
A slight variation in the intensity, or
quality, of the radiation received from
| the sun might account for sudden
| changes or abnormal weather, and re-
cent investigations show that such va
riations occur, but what is needed is
more accurate knowledge about them
and their effects. Heat and light are
only two of an infinite number of
forms of vibration sent to us from the
sun. Everybody knows that when the
weather records show that two days
are precisely alike in temperature, in
humidity, etc., human nerves prove
that they are vastly unlike in some un
named popularity which affects the
springs of life
The spider busily and confidently
spinning her webs in preparation for
spell of fine weather which some IN
| erring mechanism of foreknowledge
within her enables her to detect is a
surer guide than a barometer. She re.
spends to vibrations as yet only guess
ed at by science. and SO perhaps do the
supersensitive nerves of many human
reatures.-Garrett P. Serviss in New
York Journal.