Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1916-11-12
Advantage Again Changes.

In 1916, however. the advantage has
changed again. less decisiveiy perhaps
but hardly less patiently. In the larger
sense it has seen the loss of the inltiauVe
by the Germans. which was. to De sure
lost in 1914, but was regained In i9lo, II
has seen the crushing defeat OF an ou' olis
the only victory of Importance mas been
won. not against Gernany's carrier Toes,
hut against a new enemy. brousnt iito
the conflict by conviction that tne u1
feat of the central powers was not oniS
: certain but imminent-an expensive MS
calculation. it would appear
Let us 20 back for a moment ana eN-
anime the situation as berhn saG ~ ~,
before the real campaign OF the present
wear opened At that moment German
high command reckored that Russia was
out of the war for a long time. as result
of the defeats of the previous year rms
was a correct calculation; Russia was out
OF the war for at least fye months IN
ignore Russia as she had chosen to ignore
A. The same time Berlin calculated that
the British army would be incapapie o,
effective interposition in the west Tor a
long time This was a correct CALCULATION
also. II was not until July ! that me
British army reached condition that
seemed to the French comn1ander-in-chiei
sufiicientIy good to warrant the opening
of a general offensive. Berlin could cal
culate and did calculate that Tor con,
siderable time-half year as 1t turne "a
out although Berlin, both in the case OF
Britain and of Russia. grossly everest
mated the time-there would be only
France TO face an attack. as there had 10
all intents and purposes been only FRANCE
in 1914.
Problem Of Italy.
Further than this. there was the prob
lem of Italy But the Balkan situation
had been cleaned up Austria had re-
serve Of troops freed by the destruction
of Serbia; Bulgaria could be relied upon
with Turkish aid to look after the Sarrail
forces at Saloniki for an indefinite period
Of tine This calculation was wholly
sound Therefore Austria might turn her
attention TO Italy crush through the Tren-
tine front and enter the Venetian plain.
taking up the historic position in the
Quadrila.eral. conQuering Nenetia and
abolishing the Italian peril TO trieste
With such disasters as were thus to be
prepared Italy might be expected to sue
curnb. TO break into revolution and dis
appear from the war.
In sum total. then. Berlin began the
Campaign Of 1916 with two clear objec-
tiyes: the German effort was TO De
directed against France with the de-
sign to crush France and compel her u
make a separate peace: the Austrian
effort was to be directed against Italy
with similar purpose. Britain was
10 be ignored, Russia to be held light
ly: IL France and Italy were disposed
of their turn would come.
We know that all Of these plans fail
ed The great German effort at Nerdun
Tasted five months. il cost half mil
lion casualties and II gained nothing
important, for the small sections OF the
&etual defenses Of Eerdun which were
captured were subsequently reiinquish.
ed. AS for the Italian venture, II termi-
mated about the time the Russian at
tack in the east begin. AT the outset
II made more progress than the Verdur
drive. at the crest Of the wave it seem
ed as IL II would realize its main pur-
pose; but now the Italians hold all Of
the ground they lost on the Trentine
front. save a few miles Of unimportan'
territory.