Evening star., 1916-09-24

Ntlp.
tween Arras and Peronne. About
Peronne the French are more than ten
miles further east than the Germans
before Bapaume. and the British al
ready have under their guns all the
roads which lead out of Eapaume and
are essential for the supply of troops
holding the front west of this town.
Actually, the allied operation consists
in a process of gnawing right across
the rear of the German positions. cut
ting one after another of the roads and
railroads upon which they depend.
Lengthens the German Line.
One interesting and important con-
sequence of this gnawing process is
that as it proceeds it lengthens the
German line. Instead of a compare
lively straight front. their line takes
the form Of a concave front. deepening
all the time as the allies drive more
and more into it. This extension OF the
lines requires more men to defend
them, and the. lines themselves, in
many cases emergency trenches, are
weaker than the original front. Thus.
today the German lines in the Peronne
sector are probably a dozen or fifteen
miles longer than they were at the
start.
1t is necessary to emphasize the fact
that the Germans in the Noyon EEL
bow are not yet in any immediate
danger of development. The neck of
their salient between Peronne and the
Disc east of st. Quentin. IS still twen-
ty-fiye miles wide; ii was more than
thirty at the start But some of the
roads have been actually cut and for
five miles beyond the present front the
roads are under fire of the allies guns
and cannot be used without grave peril.
neck of the salient, 1t means corre-
spending difficulty In handling muni-
tions and supplies. and 1t forecasts a
day when the further advance of the
allies, an advance of not more than
ten miles at the most, will make the
evacuation Of this Noyon elbow" in
evitable.
Chances of Success Limited.
The chances of an ultimate envelop-
ment of the Germans in the Noyon
salient, unless there is an actual pierre
ing of the lines about Peronne and a
sudden thrush of a huge French at
tacking force, are not very great. A
year ago the Russian retreat demon
strated the extreme difficulty of en-
veloping large forces by similar opera
tions. 1t remains perfectly possible for
the Germans to hang on for some weeks
yet ii the allies do not greatly increase
their rate of advance. But even their
present rate of advance cannot fail to
make the Noyon salient untenable be-
fore winter.
The same is true of the smaller Ba-
paume salient. north of Peronne. This
is much worse situation now than the
southern position of Noyon. Bapaume
is under British fire, and If the British
are able presently to take Combles and
bring their front east on level with
the French, 1t will no longer be pos
sible for the Germans to use Bapaume
as center for supplying their troops
between Arras ana Peronne.
Now. the advances of the British and
the French in the past few days, the
diminishing intensity of German coun-
ter attacks and the growing frankness
Of Berlin official statements in conced-
Ing the loss of villages, not tardily, as
at first. but promptly, all point toward
decision on the part of German high
command to "cut their losses in this
sector. to hold on to the last possible
moment take as large a toll as is pos
sible Of their opponents. but to retire at
the final moment rather than to coun-
ter attack, as the French did in the
critical hours before Verdun
General Retreat Not Likely.
1t is not possible to forecast the ex
tent of probable German retreat
There never may be anything like a
general retreat We may continue to
see changes. of themselves slight, for
many days or weeks. Yet it is clear
that in certain sectors even this limited
retreating will ultimately compel re-
tirements in adjoining sectors to keep
the alignment. This is why so many
writer's have already decided that the
Germans will stand on the Arras-Cam-
MI.
Such retirement would again give the
Germans line substantially straight.
1t would abolish all perils to their COM
munications and it would shorten the
'front.' which has been heightened and
Will be still more heightened if the al
lied gnawing goes on for a few more
weeks.
II they are not exceedingly short of
general retreat. They will not do this
because the moral effect at home would
be considerable, and in France it would
be tremendous. 1t would be the as
be practically the Liberation of France.
and Germany would no longer have a
single hold upon the French which
might serve as the basis for bargains
Ing when the time comes to discuss
peace.
But. In addition. If the Germans re-
tire fighting over every mile the result
will be the total destruction of the
country over which they retreat and
the German commanders plainly reckon
that the French people will presently
weary of having all their northern
country turned into a desert and waste,
and the same ruin overtake Lille
Roubaix. Tourcoing, St. Quentin and
Laon which has overtaken Arras.
scissors, Rheims and Verdun
If you are to believe one school of
and they have strong
appeal to credence, the Germans have
actually reached the point where their
reserves are exhausted. Hilaire Belloc
is the best exponent of this view, and
he presents weekly interesting evidence
to support It. This Is the French view.
the view of the French officers, from
Joffre down. the view that Joffre has
expressed both publicly and in
private talks with Americans, who have
his word to me.
In the opinion of these men Germany
has no more men immediately available
and will have few men before next
spring, when the clas of 1918 will
be available. Now, IL this view of the |
French STAFF Is correct, and 1t is natu-
rally based upon very wide range of |
and evidence. there will be |
a shortening Of the German lines in the |
west before winter, and 1t will not be /
4 minor change; 1t will be q retirement |
far behind the present front and the l
OF all Of France
Again, II the.Gernans ars as short of 7
men as the. French general stan be-