New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-12-15
Diplomats Fear Limita-
tiOnS Problem Will
Block Farley
RUSSIA AND SEA
BERLIN'S QUARRY
Japan Looms as New
Enemy to Reduction
of Forces
Prom Tho Tribune Bureau J

Prom Tho Tribune Bureau
Washington, Dec. IA greater
obstacle to peace, if conference is
held, than any question of territory
or indemnity is seen in the certainty
that limitation of arnlaments to pre-
vent another holocaust will be one of
the first questions on which the con-
ferrees would clash.
All the European nations have
been clamoring for a step in that di-
rection, but it became evident to-day
that until Germany was further sub
dued her terms in that respect would
he beyond anything the Allies could
listen TO.
Germany's purpose in limitation
of ornaments, which German spokes-
men here say that she will demand
is twofold. Russia must be re-
strained from realizing her full mill
tary power. England must be robbed
of control of the seas.
AS "a Teutonic diplomat naively
pointed out to-day, a reduction OF
standing armies would operate tre-
mendously to Germsny's advantage
as against Russia, because, while a
German soldier can be turned out, If
necessary, with one year of training,
the Russian requires at least three
years to approach the same degree
of efficiency. For this reason, he
added. Russia has not been able and
will not be able during the present
war to put her real man power into
action.
Russia at Disadvantage
No matter how the ratio of army
strength to population is scaled down,
therefore, Russia will be constantly
at a disadvantage, and will not be
able to realize even her relative mill
tary strength.
But as such a reduction generally
throughout Europe would deprive
Germany Of her supremacy over the
present coalition against her. because
the rule that holds goods for Russia
cannot be applied to France, Great
Britain and Italy, Germany adds that
before the disarmament question can
be considered it must apply to sea
as we'll as land forces.
This introduces, it is believed
among diplomats, an insuperable OBJ
stacle to the disarmament plan. and,
therefore, to the conclusion of any
peace as long as Germany is able TO
dictate a single clause Of the treaty.
England. whose geographical position
makes naval supremacy the sine qua
non of national existence, can be
counted on not to relinquish a single
shin while there Is a man left to fight.
Germans See Little Hope
The Germans themselves, as repre-
sented here, recognize this difficulty,
and privately confess that they see
little hope OF peace, no matter what
answer the Allies make 70 their for
NAL invitation to parley. The ques-
tion of land armaments alone, they
admit, is enough to deadlock the con-
ference at the start.
As an alternative 20 the reduction
of the standing armies it was sug-
pested in German quarters that gen
oral limitation Of ammunition re-
serves be considered. again enormous
10 IN Germany's advantage, because
of the shor.neas Of Germsny's interior
lines Of communication. But the prac-
tical difficulties in the way Of enforc-
ing a plan Of this sort make serious
Of it almost out of the
question. s;...a;ro.
American 81
the disarmament problem, are con-
cerned with the part Japan will be ex-
pected to play. In fact, Japan's attl-
tude at the peace conference, when II
does come. Will be watched with keen
est interest here. Japan's peculiar
mart in the war, her singular immunity
from its ravages and extensive psrtici-
nation in it's spoils make it seem ap-
parent that she will be least willing Of
All the belligerents 20 accept any sac
rifces at its conclusion; least Of all, 20
assent TO a reduction Of armaments.
on entering the war Japan seized
Kiao Chao and the German islands in
the Pacific. and then settled down 10
make munitions for Russia at hand
some profit.
Japan Only Gamer
The government is putting the reve-
nues from this traffic directly into the
war chest, with the result that when
the war is over Japan will stand among
the belligerents as having proiited
hugely from the war at almost no sac
rifce OF men or money. She will be
the one nation on which the awful cost
OF increased armaments will have no
.HarE