The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1916-01-03
Prof. Jerks Sees No Peril
Here of Labor Shortage
Economist Expects Increase in immigration After the
War-Says Patriotism Won't Hold Thousands
Who Are Weary of Fighting.
SAYS Us. MUST EXPECT SERIOUS COMPETITION

asked II he thought Immigration would
be meaGre after the war he shook HE
head. Even granting hat Europe would
pay Dig wages tho increase would be
iargely Offset by a decided rise in the
cost OF living duo to taxation that must
be inflicted to pay of the huge war
debts. he said. Moreover. labor shortage
was likely to be met to a considerable
extent by the continuance of women In
the mems occupations whittier the war
has forced them.
Judging from tho slow recovery of
the south after h devastations Of the
civil war" Or. Jones went on, there
may be difficulty in SECURING the capt.
.al necessary to rebuild Time Will be
needed TO regain lost trade. Many ad-
)ustments must be made before industry
IL again running smoothly md on such a
scale as to employ fully Eu,ope's labor
rorce. Gigantic schemes OF relief and
pensions viii be needed while this re-
organization Is taking place. Thousands
or men with home ties sundered will
look upon n start in a new country as
only another interesting experiment.
ACROSS the water America. well adver-
Used through Belgian and Polish relief
work and Serbian health campaigns, will
beckon to these war burdened men and
women with its high wages and new op-
portunitles."
War spur to Emigration.
Prof. jerks could not accept a face
value the argument that love Of country
would keep the Europeans at home. He
thought II unlikely that the Jews or
Poles OF Russia, Austria, Germany and
Rumania. the Armenians of Turkey or
the Firms OF Russia would remain for
patriotic reasons after their recent ex-
perlence. He said, too. that thoeixa nds
OF immigrants will wish 70 bring their
families here at the end Of the war. And
he produced figures showing that the
wars Of HE past rave not reduced emil
grafton to America in the years i'm
mediately following.
The number of persons who carne here
from Germany in 1867 was 133426; in
1863. 1916 In 1870, l1s.225. In 1871.
at the time OF the Franco-Prussian war,
II dropped to s2,55i. but in 1872 IL
jumped to l4l.l0s and In 1873 to 49,
GIL. after which there were several
slack years. due to the panic OF 1873.
lumber OF French immigrants also
Increased after the war-from 4.OO9 in
1870 and 3.13S in 1871. to 9.3l7 in 1872
and lt.'ss In 1873. From Greece there
was a steadily increasing inflow after
the Turoc-Grecian war Of 1897. a de-
Grease during the Balkan war OF 1912
and a rapid increase in the two years
following.
"The demand for men to restore de-
stroyed property and to keep armies UP
to full strength was great at the end
of the Balkan war Of 1912" Prof. jerks
said. "One would expect. X the argu-
ments now made for a permanently de-
creased immigration are sound, 10 md
almost no Immigration after its close.
The fact Is that the number OF imini-
grants from serbia, Bulgaria and Mon
tenegro. 1921 IN 1911. to 1857 in 1912,
TO 9,0s7 in 1873. in 1914 increased to
approximately that of 1910. namely 49,
OS4. II Is curious TO note tina even the
Boer war OF ls99-l9Ol seems to have
resulted in a greatly increased English
emigration.
Summarizing the facts, We are able
TO say that war generally makes for
an immediate and temporary decrease In
immigration, followed by a return to
normal or even an increase soon after
peace Is declared. Hence, II immigra-
ton is to follow its normal course in the
case OF the present war we may expect
an almost immediate reHirn 10 past fig
ures. and perhaps an increased immi-
grafton in the years Immediately fol-
lowing.
Much. however, will depend upon tho
length n severity or the war. The re-
suit might be vastly different II the fear
ful carnage were to drag on for two or
three years longer INC as to this, who
can tell? Again. European countries
may institute effective emigration re-
striction policies which will operate TO
decrease the stream OF emigration 70
American shores. The chances are, how
ever. that immigration at the close of the
war will continue much as Il did be-
fore"
AS to genera. business conditions fol-
lowing the war Prof. jerks said
america must anticipate serious
competition from abroad. There must
be a readjustment OF ou- own indus
tries. especially those that are manufac-
turing munitions. 1t would be a great
calamity n employers and employees
should sacrifice. through contentious, the
advantages secured oil account OF the
war.
Prosperity along certain lines. how
ever. is likely TO lead to transportation,
which unless care is taken may lead to
a financial crisis. II care Is taken and
We act ~conse-vatively I think America
may look for prosperous times for years
to come"