The Washington herald., 1916-08-20
Loss of Initiative Must Force
Germans to Stand on De-
fensive to End, Experts
Declare.
By JOHN L. BALDERsToN.
Copyright, lel6)

Copyright. Isls)
London, August 1-Something has
happened in the European war Of greater
importance than any other event of the
past two years, with the exception of
initiative has been definitely and finally
wrested from the central powers. This
fact, which military opinion after several
weeks OF suspense now holds incontes-
table, means vastly more than the
success or failure of the present Anglo
French offensive in Picardy or me
Russian onslaught in Holhynia. History
initiative to the allies as the great event
Of the summer campaign of 1916, the
third summer Of the war.
1t is to explain the present situation
in the light of the great change which
has taken place within six weeks that
this article is written. The reader may
be inclined to think that talk about
strategic initiative belongs in the domain
OF theory to classify as mere rhetoric
the statement that something more vital
than a great battle or campaign has oc-
Cured which he has never seen men
toned on the front page of his news
paper. But the passing Of the initiative
from Germany Is one of those great
events. like a prosperity wave, that can
never be news, because on no one day is
!. evident that the change has taken
place. The tendency for a long time is
apparent, but editors cannot make head
lines on tendencies as they can on bat
ties, and then suddenly the world finds
that opinion of all shades admits, with
out being able to fix a date when the
tendency materializes into an accom-
pHshed fact, that the all-important thing
has happened.
Oppone on Defensive.
To say that one alliance has the stra-
tegic initiative over the other merely
means. broadly speaking, that 1t is at
tacktng and its opponents consequently
are on the defensive. But there Is more
than one kind of attack. Perhaps the
best non-technical definition of strategic
initiative would be the statement that
the side which has II can impose its will
upon the other so far as the conduct of
military operations is concerned. 1t can
attack when and where it pleases. or, If
II prefers, it can force its enemy to at
tack. In the latter case the power which
has the strategic initiative but Is fighting
as the Germans did last September in the
west Is said, in military parlance, to be
''on the strategical offensive, but the tao
teal defensive"
To apply this military jargon to the
D.
fects are bound to result from the pass
ing for the first time in the war of the
strategical initiative to the allies:
There will be no more great German
drives, east or west. Verdun was the
last.
Attacks by the allies, interrupted only
by weather and exhaustion, will continue.
Such German counter-attacks as take
place, whatever their local Importance,
ba ST lU i've in IN
tion.
It will be impossible to conceal much
longer from the German people the fact
that the army is no longer able to win
smashing victories and territory, but
must devote all its energies to protecting
what has been conquered.
VIII Be Heartened.
As the knowledge that a decisive sue
cess IS beyond them will dispirit the CEN
trail populations, the allied peoples will
BE greatly heartened as soon as they
realize their enemies are unable to strike
any more of the terrible blows which
have fallen on all the members of the
entente except England. At present they
are skeptical Of this, for they have been
fooled before
Having said so much, it must be most
empha tically pointed out that the per-
manent loss OF the strategic initiative
does not necessarily imply the loss OF
the war for Germany. 1t implies merely
that her role from now on will be to hold
out, to exhaust the enemy until he is
willing to conclude a drawn peace.
Whether this can be done is at present a
matter Of opinion, and no amount of pa
triotic defamation can make II any
thing else. 1t is true that the central
powers are getting weaker, both abso-
lutely and relatively, and that Britain
is just approaching the climax of her
power. But those who draw from this
the inference that allied victory Is GER
tain, forget the enormous advantage pos
sessed. in the modern war OF artillery
and entertainments, by the defending
side.
For example. IL II develops in the next
year that the Germans, fighting continu-
ously on the defensive in prepared posi-
tons, can kill four allies for every death
they suffer themselves, the war must end
a draw and Germany Is unconquerable.
The ratio OF casualties between the at
tackers and the defenders in a modern
battle depends on shells The assailant
must have more shells than his oppon-
ent to accomplish anything. There is no
doubt that the allies have more shells
than their enemies, and will next spring
have many more, perhaps two and half
times as many. VIII that be enough?
Nobody knows, no man can know, and
yet on the answer depends the result of
the war
Allies Have Initiative.
To what has been said the following
objection may be offered: TT is true
that the strategical initiative was held
by the Germans until some time this
summer, and that the allies have now
secured 1t, but how can 1t be said with