New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-07-15
If Austria Quits.

austria may make separate peace snOulu
be accepted with extreme caution. Con-
ceivably Austria is in a mood for peace
making. Conceivably the Dual Monarchy
has sufficiently preserved her freedom of
action, despite German influence, to take
such a momentous step, but so far there
is no evidence of this.
1t is plain that Austria has just met
with another great defeat, as yet less con-
siderable than her breakdown of August
and September, 1914, but nevertheless of
the first magnitude. Coincident with this
defeat, or perhaps consequent upon it,
there have come the abandonment of the
Italian operations. of the Austrian drive
from Trent toward Verona and Vicenza,
and the recall of Austrian troops from the
Balkans. The Russian advance has not
vet been halted. and the loss of Lemberg
and Eastern Galicia seems possible, even
probable.
On this basis of military fact it is easy.
TO see why Petrograd expects an Austrian
collapse. Laying aside the question of the
accuracy or fallacy of the Russian calcu-
lation. what would be the effect of an Aus
trian surrender if it should come?
First of all, on what terms would the
Entente be likely TO make peace with Aus
tria? Probably on some such basis as this:
Russia would insist upon the possession Of
all of Galica and Bukovna and the cession
of Bosnia and Herzegovina. together with
the southern end Of Dalmatia, to Serbia.
III. ...o,,lI Jornood Tr;oc+o tho TrentinO
the islands of the Dalmation coast and
probably most of Dalmatia. In addition
Italy would require that Austria abandon
all claim upon Albania.
In sum. Austria would lose, at the least,
some 10000 square miles Of territory with
a population of about II, 900 900, or, rough
" speaking quarter of her area and a
quarter of her population. With slight
exceptions for Italian and Rumanian
groups, this population is wholly Slav-'-
Pole and Ruthenian in the east, Serb IN
the south and Slovene around Trieste. To-
day the Slavs number little more than
half of the population of the whole Aus
tro Hungarian Empire. Peace on the
terms indicated above would remove about
half the Savs and leave only the Czechs OF
Bohemia as a considerable Slav block.
Such a settlement would take no terri
tory from Hungary, 1t would insure the
supremacy of the Teutonic element In Aus
tria and leave the Magyar control in Hun
gary undisturbed. 1t would unquestiona-
bly, contribute to Strengthening the Aus
tro-Hungaran state.
But it would deprive the Hapsburg mon
archy of practically all its waterfront on
the Adriatic. and it would permanently eX-
tinguish the Hapsburg dream of extending
its frontier to the Egean and dominating
the Balkans as it dominated Germany until
the rise of Prussia 1t would mean that
Austria would have to surrender her Bal
kan ambitions as shet had been compelled
10 give over her Italian and North Ger
man influence.
Bv taking Galicia Russia would carry
her territory to the Carpathians and OBJ
tain natural frontier" Warsaw, and,
in fact. all Poland, would no longer be
huge salient open to attack from the NORTH
and south and practically indefensible.
Five million Poles would be added to the
twelve million in Russian territory and,
save for the Poles of Prussia, the reunti'
cation of the Polish race would be accom-
plished.
More important, however, would be the
practical termination of Austro- Russian
rivalry in the Balkans. Serbia would
be transformed into a considerable state,
with a population Of some 1000 0G0, capa-
bic of barring the road to Constantiaople
and Salonica. In her own time Russia
could dispose of Turkey and establish her
self at STEAMBOAT. Once this happenca
Bulgaria would become once more Rus
sian ward since she would be isolated and
completely at Russias mercy.
Austrian surrender now would in effect
change the whole face Of the Eastern ques-
ton. A century of rivalry between Ro-
manoff and Hapsburg would end in the de-
cisive victory of the former. Seated at
Constantinople, politically supreme in Sofia
and Belgrade, Russia would effectually bar
\ the road of the Austrian and the German
to the East. Asia Minor would conceiva-
bly, be the occasion for rivalr.- between
Russia. Italy, France and Great Britain,
but beyond the grasp of Vsennese and Ber-
lin statesmen.
II Austria quits, the military situation
would not be Immediately changed. Ger
many would necessarily shorten her line,
but behind the Niemen, the Vistua and
the San-for she would never give up
would still have strong defensive line.
She would have TO bear the full weight of
Russian attack without an ally, but on 4
shorter front she might easily hold out for
long time.