Evening star., 1916-08-27

Continued from Fifth PaseD
raine To reduce Germany by 100000.
to take her industrial regions on her two
frontiers. to take her great seaports on
the Baltic and her hold upon the lower
Vistula, would not be literally to crush
Germany. but it would be long step in
this direction.
Moreover. no one can fail TO perceive
that it is just this course that is daily be-
coming more likely. as the allies more and
more clearly perceive the extent of Ger
man preparation for this war. the marvel
Gus fa ashton in which Germany used her
armies to dispose of the plants of her
neighbors and her submarines to strike
the British commercial fleet The nations
that fighting Germany are no longer
doubtful as to their ability to crush her
armies. ultimately. but in addition they
are becoming more and more resolved to
deprive her OF the profits that she would
derive could she make peace now.
Peace Now a German Victory.
The thing Americans do not perceive
with sufficient clarity is that peace now
would be great German victory. for rea-
sons which | have indicated, and that it is
precisely for these reasons that Germany
Is again and again bidding for peace on
the basis of the map of Europe" II in
addition to escaping invasion and the de-
struction of her industrial plants and any
losses of the British, Germany could re-
tain her hold upon CoEstantinople, her
read to Asia Minor, she would have won
the war, even if she acquired not foot
of territory in Belgium, France or even in
Poland.
In due course of time Austria, Bull
garia, Serbia would pass under COM
plete German domination. as all three
have steadily tended to pass since the
war began. Rumania and Greece would
necessarily follow the line they could
not avoid. From Hamburg to Bagdad
the German railroad would run unfn-
terrupted1y and German effort would
in due course of time reach Suez, cross
into Egypt and even approach India. As
for the development of all -hese re-
gions. richly mineralized. Germany
would keep her great industrial plant
undisturbed by war. Her soldiers, like
our own, after the civil war, would
move on outward into this greater
Germany, as Grants soldiers moved
into the far west. Given the genius
for organization which Germany has
already shown. she would in no distant
time be absolutely master alike of the
continent of Europe and the African
shores of the Mediterranean.
Will Yield Only to Great Defeat.
Now, the progress of the war has
necessarily revealed the whole Ger
man plan. What millions in France,
Russia and Britain now see was un
known to them two short years ago. or
German purposes seemed too grandiose
to challenge sensible consideration.
What seemed then a dream has now be-
come almost a solid fact; it will be-
come a permanent fact. unless a
victory over Germany is achieved
which will destroy the foundations of
this German scheme. Such a victory
is a matter of years. rather than
ta0v, Il Ak
Europe with no stronger allies or
weaker enemies than Germany has
now from 1906 until 1914. He did sue
ceed in dividing his foes frequently. as
Germany has not. but it took ten years
to get to the end of Napoleonic dream.
To suppoe that Germany. with So
much of her ambition achieved. will
surrender the vital portions of it un-
til she has met disasters that COM
pare with Moscow and Leipsic is pre-
posterous. To suppose that the allies.
now satisfied that they can destroy the
German edifice. will stop now on terms
that will insure the German future is
equally absurd. At the Rhine and the
Oder Germany may resign Alsace-
Lorraine. southern Silesia, perhaps
Posen and the Prussias, but she is not
likely 10 resign any part Of them at
the Somme, the Sambre or the Meuse
in the west, or along the Niemen.
Beresfna or Vfstula in the east.
A Four-Year War.
The allies have first by fighting TO
divest Germany of what she has con-
quered in this war, particularly OF her
conquests from the Danube to tho
Golden Horn. They have then to res
cue northern France. Belgium and
Poland. And Germany as she retreats
will shorten her lines. not impossibly
keeping step with her decline of num-
bers. To suppose that the end the
allies mean to attain can be attained
this year or next seems to me unrea-
To suppose that knowing or
believing that they can attain 1t, and
perceiving what the cost to them will
be If they do not attain 1t. they, will
stop short of it seems to me equally
incredible. And this is why I share
the belief that is held in many quar-
ters abroad that the war will con-
tinue into 1918. that it will be a four
year war. and that 1t will end inside
German frontiers.