Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1916-01-16

other end than complete collapse.
forces to occupy the front from the
kiev railroad at kovel to the Ru-
manian frontier.
- J Trying Again.
Now. roughly speaking. the Russians
are trying again the campaign that
succeeded so completely against the
Austrians seventeen months ago. They
are advancing along the Odessa Lem
berg railroad line from their trenches,
which have for months faced the Aus
TRANS along the Sereth river, from tho
Rumanian boundary just south of
Czernowitz to the Austro- Russian from
tier above Tarnopol. They are also
moving west along the kievKovel-
warsaw line, and are close to the fort
ress of Lutsk, which they lost in the
summer.
Writing on Sunday. January 3. I see
the situation in something this fashion:
Along the Lemberg line the Russians
have pushed the Austrians back from
the Sereth to the Stripa river, some
thing less than twenty miles, on a very
wide front, and they have shelled the
Austrians out of the hills commandin
the city Of Czernowitz. They claim to
points. and If they force this barrier
they viii have no natural obstacle be-
tween them and the city Of Lemberg.
which is about sixty miles west Of
where they now stand.
But the operation on the Kiev line is
much more interesting and important
On the railroad itself the Russians
seem to be halted by the fortresses of
Lutsk and Dubno. which they lost in
the summer fighting. but they are now
attempting to cut the Kovel line north
and west of these fortresses and not
more than fifty miles from Kovel, in
the bend of the Styr river at Car
torysk.
Now. if the Russians could cut the
kovel line west of Lutsk they would
isolate these fortresses and cut the
sole railroad line of communication
for this portion of the Austrian front
Beyond much question, this success
would mean a general retirement of
the whole front in this portion of the
battle line. Could they press on fifty
miles to kovel. they would be on the
Austro-German forces at Pinsk, threat
ening them along the Kovel-Brest-
Litovsk railroad line.
Complete Russian success along the
kovel line. then, would mean that the
Austro-Germans would have to retreat
from their present front, in the center;
it would mean that a great wedge
would be driven into their whole battle
line. and they would not improbably
have to come back to Wilma and the
Niemen, abandoning their conquests in
the Courland as well as in the marsh
country between Brest-Litovsk and
Pinsk
Only Preliminary Successes.
AS it stands at the present moment.
the Russians have won only prelim-
mary successes. They have not won
any advantage which does more than
open the eyes of observers to the posi-
bilities of their present<campaign. An
eminent German naval and military
writer. Count R.sventlow. has described
the Russian drive well organized
and comedies that the Russians have
great reserves both in men and in ar
tillery. He also remarks that COM
plete Russian success might settle for
both Rumania and Greece the question
of coming in.
We are then face to face with the
fact, attested by German witnesses,
that Russia has recovered from her
great defeats and is once more pressing
an offensive which il ma king small but
visible Roadway and has already dis
closed great possibilities. She is. too.
making it along precisely the lines that
saw her great opening victories of the
war.
Remaking of Battle Line Possible.
If within the next few days the re-
ports of the war shall disclose the ar.
rival of Russian armies on the Kovel
railroad line, or at Kovel itself, then.
unless the success is quickly abolished.
there will be a remaking of the whole
eastern battle line, and that change
will be marked by very considerable,
recoil of the whole German and Aus
trian front from the Baltic to the Ru-
trying to do is to win back from the
Germans important positions which the
latter won a few months ago, and, il
for new offensive directed at Mos
COW, Petrograd and kiev in the sum-
mer.
If the Russian pressure continues we
may expect to see the operation against
Salonih abandoned and the troops that
were to make it recalled to the Russian
frontier. Or we may see the transfer
from the west of troops who are sup
posed to have been sent there for an Of
fensive against the French and British
when the weather became favorable.
This is an opinion held by some observ-
ers and secuted by others, who believe
such an attack would be too costly to
tempt the Germans in their present
state of numbers.
Viewed in Contrast
BY contrast. if the Austrians and Ger
mans succeed in halting and smother
ing the Russian offensive we shall
know that the stories that their num-
bers are beginning to fail have been
exaggerated. to say the least; we shall
know that the Russian recovery has
been less rapid than now seems. and we
shall probably be able to dismiss from
the reckoning any chance of success
full winter campaign by the Russians
Such a situation, followed by success
full German and Turkish campaigns
against Egypt and Saloniki. might go
far to convincing the allies that Ger
many could not be defeated This
would make for peace.
Yet, to balance this. there must be
kept in mind the allied belief that
Germany is past her high-water mark
The Germans believe that the allies are
beaten. but will not admit il. The al
lies believe that German numbers an~
resources are failing and that the proof
or disproof of this cannot long be post
poned.
Watching for Signs of Weakness.
The allies and the neutrals are watch
ing for the first sign OF a German
If the Russians win any
thing more than a purely local success
now. if the Germans have to change
their front and retreat. the effect can
D,A knl tI,nA L.