The Bridgeport evening farmer., 1916-04-28
WAR WILL END
 BEFORE WINTER IS PREDICTION
That's What Financial London Expects, After Investigat-
 ing Conditions.

This is a time when the American opinion of financial London regarding the progress of the war itself?
 We'll, in the first place, your people doubtless realize that this war, which is different from all of it's predeces- sors in so many respects, differs es- pecia1ly in the sense that the f1nan- cia1 community, in all the bel1igerent countries, is possibly the most imper- fectly Informed with regard to the war developments. In the old days, the Stock Exchange itself used to have private news from the battle field and excitement in securities. But owing to the censor, such news is now lacking, and speculation has been practically eliminated. Still it will be urged that even if news may be scarce, the shrewdest opinions in Lombard Street must every day be framing their views with regard to the situation. That is perfectly true, and will endeavorz to roughly out line the tendency of those views and opinions. In the first place, it is felt that all that has been accomplished by the Allies thus far, in the way of withstandtng German attacks, has been accomplished with almost every thing. in favor of Germany and ad- verse to the Allies.
 Those conditions were especially ad- verse to this country, through it's i'm perfect acquaintance with all the work involved by the nasty mobi1iza- ton of a large army. In the second place, it is fully realized that we have held our own, despite tnnumer- able mistakes and a dep1orable lack of strong and efficient leadership. Again, it is recognized that in no di- reetion have we learned by experience more than in the realm of finance, and that the improvement in the out look in that respect is very marked. So far as one of our greatest problems is concerned, namely the American exchange, opinion is very general now lthat steadiness in that market is in sured far at least another six months.
 Moreover, notwithstanding the weak spots in the situation, there can be no question that, so far from the people of this country showing wea- reverse is the case. do not mean that there is not a, sense in which ev- cry one is entirely weary of the pro- 1onged strain; but the determination of the English people was never greaterat any time during the war than it is to-day; and not only so, but the determination proceeds along the most effective lines, namely of insist ing upon stronger leadership in the government itself; and so strong is
 
 changes effected in leadership, it means the prosecutioneof thelwar with greater vigor.
 In, contrast with the conditions as have described them, it is believed in the shrewdest quarters of financial London that in Germany the tide of reaction is setting in. Although we do not for a moment believe the re- port of some Dutch newspapers, that the fourth German war loan has been really a f1asco, still there is little doubt that the subscriptions become more and more on a paper and less and less on a cash basis. It cannot be so very long before the burdens, of war will begin to press with extreme tries. Then it will come to a trial of endurance, not merely on the bat tIefeId, but between the civilian pop uIations of the various countries. In that case, it is believed that the Ger man government is likely to find it's position seriously handicapped.
 To many minds, the recent tactics of the Germans. notably with their submarines, reflect something like governmental desperation. This be- lief, and knowledge of the, German peoples restivenesS over their idle warships, lead some of our most ex- perienced fnanciers to expect that the merely great military, but great naval, activity-possibIy of a decisive char acter If were to sum up briefly, then, the opinion of financial London for what it is worth, I should say that scarcely any one of sober Judg- ment would be willing to predict the actual duration of the war, there is a very general opinion that the ultimate isssue of the conflict will be deterfnfn- ed before next winter.