New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-11-05
NEW YORK STATE
NG.O.P. COLUMN
~ Votes Are probably
Hughes and 40 Prob
ably Wilson
D. STEVENSON II. EVANS

u. ~ decided by 100000 Amer
- - ci.izens on Tuesday. Hughes
10 to z favOrite. But, to
time in sporting parlance, he
- wilson have turned into the
e- .-...b almost neck and neck.
~ W. even the seventh son Of
.,rs-.b son, aided by all the polls
.4,b have been taken, a perfect
..,k of straw votes and an inside
t.ouledqe Of the desires Of Charles
r Murphy and Roger Sullivan
.,rld with safety predict the result
All surface signs indicate finish
.o close that it is quite possible for
NJ Hughes TO win by as small
margin as a majority Of one in the
electoral College. He would have
ms, 266 Electoral votes if he car
red New Jersey and all the states
which seem surely his.
Only Two Guide Posts
After all is said, there are this
wear only two guides to an opinion
and these may turn out less GER
tain than they seem-as follows;
The fact that Mr.. Hughes has
far greater number of certain Elec'
torai votes than has Mr. Wilson,
and the second fact that there are
about million and a half fewer
Democrats in the country than there
ere Republicans and Progressives.
Consideration Of alleged facts and
figures which lead to remarkable
conclusions in a score Of states, all
Of which claim the honor Of being
pivotal" may be good mental eN-
ercise but the inevitable result Is
bewilderment. Hughes has a tre-
mendous lead, 70 begin with. There
are more Republicans than there
are Democrats. Those two facts
and nothing more induce one OBJ
server to say with confidence:
IT WILL BE HUGHES!
Hughes in Winning Position
Twenty states. casting 252 votes in
III. Electoral College, may be counted
as surely for Hughes. He must have
fourteen more votes 20 win. New Jer-
seq, with just that number, is almost
certain TO 20 Republican. There are
also West Virginia, with 6; Connecu-
eut, with 7, and Wisconsin, with 70
all Of which lean toward Hughes.
Twenty states, casting 1877 votes IN
the Electoral College may be counted
as surely for Wilson. lie must have
50 more 20 win. II Colorado with O.
Delaware with g. Ohio with "a and
Washington with Z, swing in behind
Wilson-and the surface indications IN
all these states indicate leaning tow
is 2s short Of the required 266.
He might carry West Virginia, Con-
necticut and Wisconsin. put down in
the Hughes doubtful column, and then
taste the bitter cup Of defeat But if
Hughes carries New Jersey-an ex-
tremely probable outcome-or any
other two Of the states in the Hughes
doubtful column, he will win.
Ohio Is Doubtful
Ohio is certainly doubtful and prob
ably for Wilson, judging on conditions
which were true one week ago. Since
then the Republican managers report
change for the better, but probably
not more than enough to elect Herriek
Senator and Willis Governor.
II Ohio is doubtful. people ask, why
Is Indiana, a neighboring and sympa-
thetie state, certain for Hughes? The
answer would require too detailed an
explanation, but things are different in
Indiana
In the great Republican state of
illinois (29 votes) approximately
100000 women are qualified TO cast
bAlle,s for Presidential electors. The
women Of Illinois never before have
hsd q voice in a national campaign. 1t
is said that this tremendous feminine
influence, about which nobody pretends
70 know, makes Illinois doubtful
state. II that be true, and If the doubt
finally be resolved in favor Of Wilson
the 2s votes might be just enough TO
win. provided he also carries Colorado,
Delaware, Ohio and Washington.
Hughes could not possibly win with
out the 45 votes Of New York. Wilson
could, but probably wouldn't, for the
opinion Of the voters Of this state
comprising 10 per cent Of the voters
Of the nation. is probably typical.
New York the Barometer
Il is Just as true this year as il has
been In q score Of campaigns, that "as
goes New York so goes the election"
lnis makes il most important 70 know
what the apparent conditions are IN
me biggest state.
Hughes will "come down TO The
Centinnse on page 9. column