Daily capital journal. (Salem, Oregon) 1903-1919, 1916-05-24

occupations. Moreover, the better op-
portunities offered in this country will
attract large numbers from countries
where depression is keenest. Great Bri-
:ain is already calculating upon many
of her men leaving the United King
dom, and is planning to divert them to
her colonies; Canada already being en-
gagged in making plans and inducements
for their coming. A large influx to this
country must also be expected from
Russia, Hungary, Italy and possibly
from Germany; though the latter is
problematical and would be offset by
the large number expecting to return
10 the Fatherland for family and fin
aneial reasons as well as from motives
Of Curiosity and interest.
''he effect of tho war upon our for
eign trade can be realized by tho fact
that between its commencement in 1914
and the etnd of last March, our exports
cave reached the stupendous total of
nearly $4,00O,0OO,OUO. Our imports dur.
ing the same period were almost ST.
0AG,000,000, so that the excess exports
during the war period have been ap-
proximately $4,000, 100000. In addition
we exported $7l 100000 of silver, net,
and our net imports of gold were over
$I20,000,000. How IS this huge indcbt
edness being adjusted9 Credit and loans
have been granted upon gigantic
scale, while the return of securities, of
which there has been no accurate esti-
mate, must also have been nOrnous in
volume; very large sums still being in
the hands Of local financial institutions
az collateral, 1t is well kLtwn that
American railroads, whose wants have
lately been put at $1,U00,o00 900 yearly,
have made unusually small security IS
sues, for the reason that the ordinary
investment demand for railroad issues
seems to have been tmply satisfied by
foreign offerings, Srs.hes which tie
high rates now commanded by capital
discouraged new applications Thus far
our merchandise exports show no symp-
toms of abating. The shipments last
week from New York amounted to $751;
100000 and since the first of January
have reached 1906, 900 GEO, compared
with 1896, 100000 a year ago. The Bri-
tish blockade is showing its effects by
practically an entire stUppage Of ship
ments to the Central Powers, and also
by large miminutiop in the exports
to neutral countries ambiguous to the
central powers. In March the exports
to Holland were only $l0,000,000, de.
crease of $l3,O00,00O compared with a
year ago, and exports to Denmark weer
$5,000,000, decrease of $6,000,00
while the exports to Sweden were $4,
100000, a decrease of $14,00,000. in
this connection it may be mentioned
that the United States is not the only
neutral nation that has made big prof.
its out of the war, japan Holland, Den
mark and Sweden having also benefited
largely.
The rise in securities outside of mu-
milton shares 49, which are a law unto
themselves - has beel sensibly check
cd by foreign sales in ribs market and
q realization that the present abnormal
activity in business cslnOt indefinite
ly continue. Alreadg there are signs
of halt in the upward movement of
commodities Rradstrect index mum
Der for May l being 174S5, against
l1.759S April /. The May index mum.
Der shows rise of OVER 10 per cent,
compared with year age and has been
chiefly due to the adv9nee in metals.
chemicals and such materials as were
consumed by the requirements of war.
There are growing omplaints of the
increased costs of doing business, and
not q few enterprises have been defer
red owing to the high ro,t Of construc-
'tion. The policy of increased discrimi.
nation ON the part of bankers and lend.
ers is also exerting a restraining influ-
ence upon new business.
The outlook for the stock market is
somewhat confused by numerous cross
currents, Munition shares were unfav.
Orably influenced by prace talk, and
may be adversely affected still further
as the time grows near Tor ending hos.
tilities. The weakness Of this class of
securities, which absorbed so much
speculative attention, naturally affect,
ed the entire market. The most en-.
cOuragiug feature lately has been the
decided strength Of tire railroad shares
and few of the better class industri
ais. For reasons that are well known
railroad shares have been thought to be
more attractive and safer as invest
ments, especially as their financial con
dition has been much improved by lib
eral gains in earnings, besides which
public hostility is ON the wane, and
the possibility Of a strike is viewed
with less apprehension than a month
ago. There has been no such initiation
in railroad securities as developed in
some Of the industriols and eommodi
ties, the only reason for this being the
constant pressure Of foreign liquida
ton. Peace prospects naturally affect
railroad shares favoratly inasnuch az
ending Of the war would lessen the ne
cessity of foreign liquidation. There
is plenty Of capital awaiting invest
ment, and railroads are entitled to pref
prpnPp ou their intrfnqip tunrifq