Evening star., 1916-12-10

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AS far as the allied nations are con-
cerned we know certain things and are
permitted to suspect others. We know
that our own government has the best
of information to lead II to believe that
France and Great Britain would regard
as an unfriendly act any proffer of
mediatory services now. We know
that the press. the public. men. the
mass of the people of France and OF
Great Britain are resolved to go for-
ward, ito carry on" as the British
phrase is. and we know that a recent
change in ministry in Russia has been
recognized all over the world as
triumph of those liberal and national
forces in the duma which are deter
mined to go on with the war.
AS to Germany and her allies. largely
through German arms and wholly
through German genera1ship they have
just won considerable victory in
Rumania. a victory which must dissl-
pate any pessimism of the summer ana
renew confidence in ultimate victory.
WEAKNESS of the war-such as We
hear of vaguely-haS not, on any re-
liable testimony availa Bile, reached
point where the German people are
ready or willing to submit to terms
dictated by their foes. nor do the
German people conceive that such an
outcome of the war is possible.
Agreement Not Yet in Sight.
Actually, then. We are no nearer an
agreement between the contending
forces than We were one or two years
ago. After two years of unprecedented
waste and suffering neither of the
great alliances has won anything that
approaches decisive victory. save Tor
the tiny corner of the continental bat
tlefield which is Rumania condition
of deadlock exists everywhere. and
neither alliance shows even the pre-
liminary signs of exhaustion.
Peace could only come If one side
were conquered, if the approach of eX-
haustion exercised a decisive influence
upon one contestant-that is, one al
lance; finally, if both alliances were
convinced that a clear victory was I'M
possible and that no reward com.
mensurate with the cost of continued
conflict was attainable. To put II an
other way. there is no Sedan, there has
been no such development in any OF
the great powers as led Austria 10
yield to Frederick the Great in the first
Silesian war. and there is yet no such
general condition as obtained in the
closing wears of the war of the Span
ish succession
In word. all the great nations that
are fighting are still in the mood of
July, 19l4-:they are prepared to fight
rather than to surrender anything of
the essential points for when they
were prepared twenty-eiSht months
ago to draw the sword. We snail see
as we proceed in this study, that the
issue remains the same-all the new
questions that have arisen since the
war opened have not obscured the
original question. the peace OF tle
world still remains locked up IN the
fate and independence OF SERBIA ana
Germany and Russia. the great rivals
in the east, are in nowise prepared to
quit the field.
Peace is impossible because no one
is beaten, because neither alliance Is
satisfied that ii cannot win and be-
cause each alliance can find in past
and present conditions sufficient eVl-
dence to confirm its belief that real
victory is possible and peace on pres
ent conditions mere guarantee OF
subsequent hoSrilitieS.
Basis of Peace Problem.
And on what basis could peace be
made now? Would Germany and her
allies consent to a return to the status
quo ante to the condition of July, 1914?
Would Germany and her allies consent
to evacuate Belgium, northern France,
Poland, Lithuania, Serbia? Would they
consent to the restoration of Belgium
and Serbia; would they accept the old
frontiers and the old perils without
any return for their gigantic sacrifices?
This is unthinkable
Conyersely would the French. the
British and the Russians consent to
peace on the basis of two years ago?
Would France put acide forever the
FnrTl r
Britain agree to return the colonies she
has conquered? Would Italy give over
the hopes of Trieste and the Trentlno?
Would Russia surrender her best
chance to get Constantinople, a chance
supported by Britain and France? This
too is inconceivable. No one can know
French or British sentiment a this hour
who believes that such an accommoda-
ton is today conceivable.
The Germans. as all their public and
official statements show. believe that
they have won the war. To support
this view they point to the long list OF
their victories and to the vast extent
of the territory they have occupied.
They assert that the last sumner has
proved that their western line cannot
be pierced. while their Runanian vic
tory has demonstrated that they sitil
have sufficient man power TO meet new
foes and win new victories. They seem
honestly to believe that this fact is
recognized by their opponents, but that
the statesmen of the opposing countries
wickedly compel their peoples to go
forward.
But the French and the British rea-
son quite differently. They believe
that even the limited successes of this
summer demonstrate that the German
armies in the west can be beaten. They
reason that they are already superior
in numbers. guns and munltionment;
they point to the lessons of the wars
OF Louis XIV and of Napoleon. Ger
many and her allies have never won
the victories of Napoleon they have
never approached his domination of
the continent They have never done
what he did; that is. temporarily put
out one opponent. as Napoleon put out
Austria at AusterlitZ. Prussia at jena
and Russia at Eredland.
What the Allies Count Upon.
The allies count on numbers. wealth.
superior resources and the control of
the sea- They point to the records of
the past in the great coalition wars and
they are able to say that these coali-
tions ultimately wore down nations.
placed ais Germany is placed today.
after suffering initial defeats and dis
asters far surprising those that they
have suffered or are likely now to
suffer.