The Washington herald. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1906-1939, 1916-03-12
BELIEVES WAR WILL
END WITHIN A YEAR
coNrINuEp FRoM PAGE oNE.

The first contingency is unlikely, and
even IL Russia did quit. | doubt whether
the Germans could at this time break
through in the West. There remains the
now of the slightest, that Ger
many may win by crushing the British
fleet and landing an army of invasion in
England.
II the allies win the war. they must
conquer the German armies East or West
and break into Germany. Beating Turks
Austrians or Bulgars win not do. /
believe 1t to be true that on the battle
fronts the entente now disposes of some
million more soldiers than the enemy
coalition, and that the central powers
have only some 100000 final reserves
against 100000 men who will reinforce
the ranks of their foes. This disparity
in force will be paralleled before the
end of the summer by great superiority
of the entente in cannon and shells. But
I do not think superior man power and
fire power will be sufficient to overcome
the defensive which the Germans will
undoubtedly adopt when their last bid
for decisive victory has failed. For the
allies to win, they must not only push
the Germans out of France-which they
may be able to debut across the Rhine
and into Germany.
AttrItIOn War Not Feasible.
Theoretically, the war of attr:Iion"
would result in complete German defeat
If continued long enough, but in practice
such a war is impossible, for at its con-
clusion all Europe would be decimated
and starving, and the lot of the victors
as bad as that of the conquered. When
Germany is obviously no longer a men,
ace, and is doggedly fighting an avowedly
defensive war, the peace movement in
the countries of her enemies will over
content to perish themselves so they
may Crush the Kaiser.
My belief that the war will end in a
draw, then. rests upon the probability
that the allies will not be able to crush
the German armies in the field and the
near certainty that the Germans cannot
crush the allies. Blockades, food short
ages, lack of money, may prevent Ger
many from winning, but they cannot
force her to surrender.
The military glory distributed by pos
terity will go, most of it. to the Germans,
although military laurels may be at such
a discount i'm the future that the father
land would be glad to barter the memory
Cf Tannenburg and the Donajec River for
forgetfuness of LOuvain and the Lusi-
tania. The great campaigns of the first
year of the war were fought and won by
the Germans with fewer men than their
opponents, and If the Germans were bet
ter prepared. as their enemies repeat
France and Russia had been striving to
prepare, and had spent between them
far more money than Germany and Aus
tria in getting ready for this war. II the
allied armies beat the Germans in the
future. it will he due simply to over
whelming weight of men and metal, and
victories won by such methods cannot
dim the memories of what happened in
France, Galicia and Poland in the open
ing campaigns.
Loss of Colonies n Factor.
On the other side discussing prestige.
must be placed the loss of all the Ger
man colonies and the allied command of
the sea, with or without crushing naval
victory. Taking the war as a whole.
however. I feel confident that by profess
siOnal soldiers of the future the palm
for fighting will be awarded to the CEN
trail powers.
This would seem to tip the scales in
Germany's favor. but l think the balance
will be redressed by the fact that the ma
terial results of the war will favor the
allies. Whether moral or material VIC
tory in war is more important for the
future, leave to the philosophers.
Inc central powers VIII De more eN-
hausted at the end than their enemies,
and their position will be worse because
they played for great stakes and lost,
while the entente in the main was fight
ing simply to hold what it already pos
sessed.
The terms of peace will depend on the
positions of the armies at the moment
when exhaustion impels both coalitions
to accept what each will regard, and
rightly. as a disastrous peace. That
moment will come when the combatants
realize that to go on will be still more
disastrous for themselves as well as
their enemies. If I am right about the
draw, the following are pretty sure to be
among the terms of settlement:
Terms of Agreement.
Creation OF an Independent Poland as
a buffer state, with its own army and
neutrality guaranteed by Russia, Ger
many and Austria.
Evacuation of Belgium, with repara-
ton for the damage done. but COM
merCial treaty giving Germany a favored
position at the port of Antwerp.
No indemnites.
Evacuation of conquered territory by
both sides, excepting in the Balkans