New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-01-23
How History Is Already
Repeating Itself in
the Present
Struggle.
Copyright 1916
THE TRIBUNE ASSN.

The truth Is that the British naval power
is becoming every day larger and larger
factor In the war and It Is more and more
contributing TO the discomfort Of Ger
many and to her possible defeat IN the
future, when she has exhausted her re-
sources, always granting that she does
not find some way TO deal with Britain.
The Suez Canal.
As last resort Germany has planned
an attack upon Egypt, an attempt TO cut
the Suez Canal, interrupting British CON
nection with her greatest colony and in
cidentally occupying one Of the best Of
Britan's native subject states. The Ger
mans have convinced themselves that once
they possess Themselves Of Egypt with
the Turks assistance, Britain viii be
ready TO talk peace
Thus the new Suez campaign represents
the final bid Of Germany for victory over
British sea power. But there IS a vast
doubt In the minds Of military experts
the world over az 10 whether the conquest
Of Egypt would actually achieve the re-
suit the Germans expect. II would only
lengthen the voyage 10 india, since the
Cape Of Good Hope route would remain.
Britain conquered India when she had
only sailing vessels and had 20 use the
Cape Of Good Hope route; she held II
despite Napoleon's descent upon Egypt;
she draws neither men nor necessary pro-
visions from Egypt
In other words, there is a very general
belief, which | share, that the conquest
Of Egypt would prove merely a success
comparable to the British success in South
west Africa, save that it would be the
conquest % a more valuable colony and
that it would not have a greater effect
upon the progress Of the war itself which
will be decided in Europe, not in Asia
or Africa.
Even more interesting Is the emphatic
conviction Of most observers outside Of
Germany that the invasion Of Egypt Is
/ impossible. The world has seen that the
Turks, with only few weeks' warning.
were able TO transform Gallipoh into
/ fortress which resisted all Allied attacks
The Turks lacked all adequate resources
in munitions and in artillery.
But the Allies have had a years warn
ing as TO the Suez position. A year ago
the Turks tried 10 pass the canal and
were heavily defeated. Since then Great
Britain has been busy terrifying the posi-
IL - ~, oil - k.
impregnable now.
Only America Left
Should the suez thrust fail, then there
Is left to Germany only the bare chance
that some neutral nation, the United
States most likely, would intervene 20
modify the blockade, which was not starry
ing her, which was not yet causing her
people TO die Of hunger or her armies 20
lack necessary equipment or supplies, but
which was already causing general hard
ship and promised to become even more
onerous.
am satisfied that while the German
thrust at Suez will be made, there Is no
MISLEADING the fact that tho Germans are
looking eagerly 10 the United States in
the hope that this country will undertake
to enforce against the British blockade
the letter of international law and b.
doing this break down the wall which ia
isolating Germany ard has already put
an end 70 German exports and imports
save only in n very insignificant fraction
/ I, .ho,,IJ 10 rooo.,rf,od
the blockade has not won the war for the
enemies Of Germany, and while Germany
IS still victorious on land. the necessity
20 find a way 70 abolish the embargo upon
all her trade Is growing each week, and
Mess the way can be found Germany will
have ultimately TO meet British terms.
Britains Stake.
Great Britain is fighting not for a small
stake, not for province or for a city, not
Cor colony or coaling station; the stake
Of the war for her now has become the
removal Of her greatest rival since Ma
poeon's time. She is fighting now, what
ever the occasion Of the war, TO eliminate
rival whose elimination will leave her
supreme on the seas, without even dis
tant competitor. Moreover, she Is salts
fed that II she can maintain the blockade
! Germany will ultimately have 70 meet her
terms
This time has not comet IS premature
20 talk Of British victory-but II Is time
70 recognize how important has become
the influence of sea power; how. day by
day. there is more closely established the
parallel between the present and the Ma
poleonc wars, and how certain il is that
Unless Germany can find a way, and all
her efforts have failed so far, to break
down the blockade she will lose the war
despite her successes on land. This was the
history Of Louis XIV, Of Napoleon and Of
,. The ConfedersGy.