Evening public ledger. [volume] (Philadelphia [Pa.]) 1914-1942, 1916-06-08

The Evening Bulletin today has this 60
say about the Moore -Carothers long range
weather forecasts published exclusively
every Monday in the EVENING LEDGER:
'~Theres a weather forecast of sort
which it's authors say Is new now current
In Pennsylvania. Instead of predicting the
weather twenty-four or twelve hours IN au-
vance, this forecast Is maze at least 'ei
days ahead
''For example. the men who are respon-
sibie for IL will tell you today what the
weather will be on June 49, And. by a
comparison of their predictions for the
month Of May with the weather recorded
nv the local United states Weather Blu
reau Station, they will be right about
twenty times out of thirty
"The official Weather Bureau itself, dur
ing the month OF May, was right In ap-
proximately twenty-four cases out OF thirty
making it's predictions only twelve hours
ahead.
ION April "a Willis L. Moore Rockville,
Md. formerly Chief of the United states
Weather Bureau. and w. f. Carothers'
director OF the Carothers Observatory, Hous-
ton, Texas. began the publication In this
state of what they called weather fore
casts for two weeks, based on new dis
covery In solar physics The first forecast
applied to Pennsylvania for the week of
April 80 to May 6, Inclusive and each
subsequent forecast has also applied to n
period announced by the authors of the
forecast but. from the fact that time must
be allowed for printing and mailing the
forecasts, Il seems certain that they are
made at least ten days in advance Of the
latest date forecasts.
THE governmental weather experts say
that the Moore-Carothers system Is prob
ably based on the study of the variations
in the nebular radiatons from the sun.
The surface of the sun is constantly throw
ing out spires of heat and light, which are
never exactly the same. They rise and
fall like the surface of boiling water. These
changes are measured by an instrument
known as a hellograph.
From the variations In the suns radia-
ton, an attempt has been made to link
them with weather changes on the earth.
They are said to cause the high pres
sure and low pressure areas which
progress across the earth's surface as the
planet revolves. From the course of these
barometric fields, an attempt Is made to
predict warm or cool weather, rain or frost,
in different localities.
THE governmental experts say that this
system of forecasting weather Is not new
to them, but that 1t has never been adopted
officially because experiments showed that
II could not be depe aded upon sufficiently.
THE Moore-Carothers forecasts bear the
printed invitation: Keep a record and see
IL II does not prove 80 per cent accurate.
Comparison of the Moore -Carothers fore.
casts for Pennsylvania during the months of
May with the records of the weather as OBJ.
served in the United States Weather Bureau
stations at Philadelphia, Harrisburg and
Scranton the eastern Pennsylvania districD
show that they had an accuracy Of 65 per
cent They guessed right as to whether
the day would be clear or rainy six times
out of ten, on an average, and they guessed
right as to whether the temperature would
be rising or falling seven times out of ten.
1.-THE local Weather Bureau stations re-
lying on all the weather signs prevailing
only IL hours in advance. scored percent
age of rs as TO fair, rainy or unsettled
weather, and a percentage of so as to
whether the temperature would rise or fall
THE Philadelphia station predicted rain
locally on ten occasions during the month,
Six times the prediction was verified al
though on two occasions the rain fell in an
amount too slight to measure. On ten days
in May rain fell locally when the local
Weather Bureau did not predict 1t at all. y