New-York tribune., 1916-07-23
ARMIES BEGIN TO "CARRY ON
If the Flood Breaks
Through Fighting
in the Open Will
Spread Rapidly.
Copyright l9l6-The Tribune Assn.

for Bapaume. There are no natural OBJ
stacles, rivers or mountains; the country
is mainly fiat.
If the British get Cambrai before snow
flies they will accomplish all that they can
hope for. It will mean something like
half million casualties, if it turns Que
to be battle of trenches. But the British
have the men to pay the price; the French
have not and the Germans have not.
Two things must always be recognized
as possible. II is always within the realm
Of possibility that the Allies will break
through the German lines. II they do,
then we shall have a wide swinging oper-
alton, the old-fashioned campaigning, In
which the greatly superior numbers Of the
Allies will tell heavily and the Germans
will be crowded back until they are able
to turn the thing into trench war again.
the Flood Breaks Through. ,
The whole Allied operation is rather like
flood beating on dixie and wearing in a
breach. If the food ever gets clear
through it will spread rapidly. The Ger
mans have not been able to stop the wear
ing as yet, but they can build new dikes
behind the threatened point, and they are
doing it.
On the other hand, the attack may be
definitely checked at any moment; 1t may
be beaten down by more powerful coun-
ter attack; it may wear itself out against
the third German line, which it is just
approaching; 1t may slow down here as the
Verdun attack slowed down after the first
two weeks. If it does, France will not bs
delivered this year. z :
Meantime it is we'll to remember th&
the casualty lists are really Of more sit-
nifcance than the gains in ground. Ger.
many is endeavoring with one hand to hold
back Russia and with the other to stay
France and Britain. Austria is visibly
weakening, which means new drafts upon
the man power and munition resources Of
Germany, for Austria is losing many guns
and much ammunition.
Nothing Decisive Yet.
Can Germany stand the cost In men for
two or three months, even if she can, for
this time, hold the Western line? VIII
she be forced TO retire from lines still un-
broken because they are too long to be held
by her diminished forces? These are the
real questions that are now being raised.
We are only at the beginning Of great
struggle. Nothing Of very great impor-
tance has yet happened, nothing that sheds
any light upon the future. We do sec
, what the Allies are striking for; We do
see that they are making some progress,
the French in the beginning, the British
now, aICeT nearly Shi &C "SSNS'
Berlin does not underestimate the dan
ger. The appeal to the German people
, to have confidence in the army is one Of
. the most significant happenings OF the
! whole war. We have come to a very
great crisis, but we have only just come
/. to it. We are in something the same po-
sition of 1864 in the Civil War. Then
Grant started at the Rapidan on what he
believed was march TO Richmond. He
5 did not get to Richmond that year, and
, the butchers bill" was staggering A
similar bill will now fall due for the
British.
The Western offensive has, in fact, as
vet offered nothing comparable with the
4 Russian. II the British and French had
, made half as great an advance as their
Eastern ally the Germans would have TO
! quit France. II they had killed and capt
ured half as many of the foe it would be a
tremendous thing.
East and West.
But Gaicia and Volhynia are far away,
and London and Paris are naturally more
interested in their own fronts. We hear
. ten words about the Anglo-French drive
y. for one about the Russian, and it is the
! Russian that has really counted so far.
. shall discuss this Russian campaign
v in some detail next week, but desire
now to emphasize its greater meaning and
value. The Russians have made far more
: than beginning; the French and British
e have barely started. The latest news from
the East testifies to the continuing vitality
/. Of the Russian push north and south. s.
e far the great drive has been q Russian
: achievement, and there is no immediate