The Washington herald., 1916-09-24
War to Last One Year More,
Believes Noted War Critic
John L. Balderston Sees No Point of Contact Be-
tween Alliances-Says Germans Trust Enc
mics Will Cease Offensive Efforts and
Make Reasonable Peace.
By John L. Balderston
Copyright, lsls.J


Copyright. lglsJ
There will be, there can be, no peace
In Europe before the end Of the fourth
campaigning season OF the war. In 50
far as any prediction concerning any
future event can ever be made with GER
tainty. 1t seems to me safe to state
positively that the known factors Of the
before September or October Of next
year absolutely impossible. Personally
think the war will last through the
fourth winter and into 1918.
An attempt will be made here to con-
slider the military situation as a whole,
to examine the broad tendencies which
will bring their influence to bear on the
future course Of the war without at
tempting the impossible task of predict
ing the result Of individual campaigns.
On my arrival in America for the first
time since the earlier phases OF the war,
I find among well-informed people a dis
position to regard Germany as beaten,
the struggle already decided and virtu-
ally concluded. These beliefs naturally
lead them to expect Germany to throw
up the sponge in the near future. They
say they do not expect the war to last
through next winter, or, in any case, be-
yond next spring. 1t Is to correct these
profound misa apprehensions that this arti-
Gle is written.
Must Beat Germans.
In the first place, let it be remembered
that for the war to end Germany must
be beaten or the allies persuaded that they
cannot defeat Germany and must per-
force accept a draw. Attention is con-
centrated at present on the entry into
the war Of Roumania, the prospect that
Bulgaria and Turkey will be crushed.
Russia installed at Constantinople, and
later the military power of Austria Hun
gary, completely broken down. These
things may all happen in the 1917 cam
paign, although there is not enough time
left before the SHOWS block up the noun
tain passes in southeastern Europe for
any OF them to happen this year be-
lieve they will all happen, and that by
the end OF 1917 a complete victory Of the
entente allies will have been wOn-every-
where except on the main front against
Germany. But the issue of these minor
campaigns will affect the end of the war
only as they tend to strengthen or weaken
the position of Germany. If Germany can
fight a defensive war successfully on her
own frontiers, after her allies are beaten,
the war will go on. There appears no
insuperable reason why Germany. when
Austria is eventually knocked out, can
not, after shortening her other fronts.
hold the vital gap at Cracow into the val
most impenetrable line across Bohemia
to her own frontier OF Bavaria. A sue
cessful defense of that line against
million men could be undertaken with
$4,000 troops. provided Cracow were held,
British military authority told me.
Austria a Drawback.
many to surrender to her enemies
terms II and when her allies are crush
ed, since so far from Austria and Tur-
key and Bulgaria helping Germany.
IL has been Germany who from the
start has been compelled to furnish
aid 70 her allies. Austria Is a mill
stone hanging around our neck"
Prince Henry, of Prussia, remarked
before the war. and his phrase has
been justified by events 1t is true
that great forces now kept busy by
Germany's allies can be later en-
ployed against Germany herself, but
before the former are conquered they
can be counted on to in1Ict enormous
losses upon the allied armies
Having grasped the point that the
war will go on until Germany ls
beaten or the allies convince them
selves that they cannot beat her re-
gardless Of the campaigns against
other powers, let US consider the pres
ent military situation in its bearing
on the duration Of the war as viewed
by both sides.
The allied viewpoint. or at least
the French and British-I have not been
IN Russia-is this,
Victory is now certain, and we pur-
pose to fight on no matter how long
It takes until the German armies are
thoroughly crushed and Germany COM
PEELED to accept our terms. Whether
the war lasts until our troops enter
German territory depends upon wheth-
er Germany chooses to surrender un-
conditionally before the campaign goes
that far. There are many angles to
sidered separately no hope appears
for Germany in any one of them.
Helpless on Sea.
On the sea, Germany is helpless; her
sortie at Jutland proved she had moth
Ing up her sleeve that could successfully
challenge the British fleet, and if Won
Scheer comes out again it will be merely
a throw Of despair. The submarine cam
pain. the most serious menace against
England. broke down hopelessly, thanks
to the skill and resOurCefUlness of the
navy in developing new ways to trap the
C-bOats, and thanks above all to the
morale Of the merchant marine. Germany
believed that II she could sink, say, ten
drown few thousand seamen. the crews
Of the other ships would become panic
stricken and refuse to put to sea This
assumption has been proved unfounded,
and there has never been any trouble,
even when submarines were most plen-
tiful, in getting crews. OF course the
promise to Wilson to stop illegal sea
warfare was caused by the loss of most
OF the U-boats, and the campaign will
undoubtedly be resumed when another
feet has been built and the new crews
trained, but the result will be the same
as before
Because OF her helplessness at sea.
Germany is slowly strangling under the
grip Of the blockade. She cannot get
cotton, and her efforts to substitute wood
pulp for cotton in making high explosives
have failed disastrOUsIy. She lacks cop
per and rubber, and when her allies are
beaten will be unable to get gasoline.
The food shortage is impairing the
morale of the civilian population. and
the military efficiency of the soldiers Ger
man credit Is bankrupt, and her system
Of floating loan after loan secured only
by paper has depressed the confidence OF