The Oskaloosa herald. (Oskaloosa, Mahaska County, Iowa) 1885-1919, 1916-08-31
REPUBLICAN PROSPECTS

REPUBLICAN, PROSPECTS
The Republican Publicity Associa-
ton through it's President, Hon. iona
lowing statement:
'If the country votes at the presi-
\ dental election this year, as ii voted
at the Congressional election of 1914,
| Hughes VIII carry California, Color
ado, Connecticut, Delaware; Idaho, H.
linois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan,
( Minnesota Nevada, New Hampshire,
New Jersey, New Mexico. New York,
North Dakota, Oregon, Pennsylvania,
! Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah,
Vermont, Washington, West Virginia,
/ Wisconsin and Wyoming.
These States have 286 votes in the
electoral college, majority of which
is only 266.
'In each of these States, two years
ago. the Republican Congressional
ticket received a clear plurality Of
votes: In these States combined the
Republican candidates for Congress
received 4,075, 1877 votes, while the Dem
bcratic candidates for Congress receiv-
ed only 3,132,568 votes the total Re
publican plurality being 942,5S9.e
"In each of these States in 1914,
| thereS was an organized Progressive
campaign-except in Nevada, North
Dakota, Utah, and Wisconsin, although
in Utah there was a Fusion ticket run.
ming in opposition to- the Republicans
The total Progressive vote in these
States was 1854 :; ad the combined
Republican Progressive plurality over
I the Democrats was 1,6SS.930.
Two years ago there were five
states-Indiana Kansas, Maine, Ne,
hraska, and Ohio-whiCh are fairly TO
be classed as normally Republican
but where the Democratic Congress
fsiohal ticket received a plurality of
votes ranging from beggarly 365 in
Maine to an impressive 42,752 in In,
diana. But the Progressive vote in
each of these five states was far in
excess of the difference from Bill in
Nebraska to 90,040 in Indiana. In Kan
sas the Progressive vote in 1914
amonted to 74.441; in Ohio it was Al,
9S1 and in Maine it was 1885.
These five states will cast sc votes
III the electoral college. How will they
vote this wear?
Hopeful Democratic statistiCians
estimate the division of the former
Progressive vote upon different proper
tions-in each instance. however, Civ
ing the long end of it to the Republi-
cans and in mo instance claiming that
more than 20 per cent of the Bull
Moose will support Wilson. Upon this
extreme hypothesis. let us examine the
vote of the five states where a Demo
cratic plurality was found in the Con
gressional elections of 1914.
The Republican vote of Indiana in
1914 was 1881 the Progressives
casting 10000 and the Democrats 275,.
S92 Dividing the Bull Moose strength
on the basis of seventy and thirty per
cent, respectively. to the Republicans.
and the democrats, the vote of Indiana
this year should be: Republican $780,
1852; Democratic, 302,904. The margin
is too small for comfort on either side;
and Indiana must remain as fighting
territory until the votes are counted.
The .Progressives-aide it is said, by
an organization in that state; but
observers believe that from
50 to 80 per cent of the Moose will
vote for Hughes and that the number
who support Wilson are negligible.
Upon this basis, Indiana should go for
Hughes and Fairbanks by nearly 3d. |
300.
THE seveDty-thirty division applied |
10 Kansas would give that state to |
he Republicans by the following fig.
Ires: Republican. 24O,215; Democrat |
C. 21S,162
in Maine the result would he: Re-
publican. 72.S88; Democratic 66,071.
In Nebraska the figures should
how: Republican, 1886: Democrat.
c, 1880. This is another hair line
If demarcation, but there is no Bull
Moose ticket in Nebraska this year;
md while the contest will be hard
me. the indications are that Hughes
will carry the state.
THE same division OF the Progress
We vote in Ohio would produce figures
or 1916 In this wise; Republican, Sill,
38: Democratic, 4Sg.653.
1T is therefore a fair assumption
hat. in addition to retaining the states
fhich disclosed a clear Republican
lurality in 1914-and which assure a
lajority OF the electoral college the
republican ticket will this year gain
,ansas. Maine and Ohio without oues-
on and secure for Hughes and Fair |
anks total of 1926 out of the 531 vot- [
5 In the electoral college-wi more
ian fighting chance to add the %
Dtes II Indiana and Nebraska TO that
lumber. making $40 or majority ofil
n. VI