The Washington times., 1916-10-10
ENVOY aRRARD's MISSION

Ambassador Gerard IL coming
home from Berlin for the first time
in three years. His coming was an
nounced some time ago, when 1t was
widely suspected that he bore some
sort Of message concerning a posi-
bility Of opening peace discussions.
That idea is no longer regarded ser
iousIy, in view Of the new phase
upon which submarine war has en-
tered.
Now, there is impression that he
may be coming to discuss with his
Government the confidential advices
he has received in Germany regard
ing plans for a more violent prose-
cution Of the undersea campaign.
Though it may be kept within the
limits Of international law, as those
limits have been adapted to con-
ditions Of this war, yet that cam
paign may presently come to be a
virtual blockade Of the Atlantic coast
Of the United States. What serious
results, for this country. would fol-
low from that development need not
be outlined in detail. Indeed, the
gravity Of that condition, both to
this country and to the whole world,
is Of such character that it would be
well-nigh impossible to conceive the
manifold aspects it might take on.
Yesterday there was a stock mas
ket panic on the strength Of single
days destruction of shipping, bel
ligerent and neutral, off our coasts.
Yet that days work merely brought
closer home to America the thing
that has been going on, month after
month, and in which about every
maritime neutral except this coun-
try has suffered the loss Of many
ships. The rules Of this game per-
NIT the sinking of neutral ships
carrying contraband Of war. That
no American vessel has been sunk.
in these circumstances, is doubtless
owing to the fact that German COM
manders have received orders to be-
ware of offending the United States.
In the beginning Of the war, indeed,
the Frye was sent to the bottom;
but her crew was removed to the
commerce raider, and landed safely.
The Washington Government has
taken the position that ships COM
panies must not be set adrift in open
boats; and the policy of Germany
seems to be to avoid such an offense
to this Government.
But within the limits permitted
by the German pledges to this coun-
try, there is every reason to pre-
sumo that commerce raiding off our
shores will be carried just as far as
possible with the number and power
of submarines that can be mustered
for it. From Bremen comes the
assurance that what has already
happened is as nothing compared to
what will happen hereafter.
Inasmuch as there are very few
American ships in comparison to the
number needed to move our now i'm
mense tonnage in foreign trade, this
exemption Of American vessels from
the ultimate horrors Of submarine
war is of no very great commercial
Importance. Most of our tonnage
must be carried under other flags;
under flags for which the SUBJ
marines have shown no regard.
Therefore, if the same rules are to
be enforced against neutrals, outside
the three-mile limit off the American
coast, that have been enforced
against them in the waters of west
ern Europe and the Mediterranean
the American coast is under a
blockade.
Moreover, this blockade is likely
to be more serious here than on the
other side Of the Atlantic, because
on this side there is no belligerent
naval force to fight off the sub
marines. The American navy is not
a belligerent; the naval forces that
the allies may send here to protect
American commerce will have no
convenient bases from which to
operate. It is an anomalous con-
dition, utterly without precedent,
and fraught with the most menacing
possibilities.