New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-10-18

loss in territory mas Deen cohsiueia-
BILE.
Now, to balance this account what
can be said for Germany? Allied
success has brought new nation IN
to the war, involving a new strain
upon German resources. This new
nation has invaded an Austro-Hun-
garian province, but has now been
driven out, having been heavily de-
feated. 1t now stands upon its own
frontiers, it may presently suffer
from invasion. Here is a shining
German success; but to win 1t Ger
many has had to employ reserves
destined to act against her other
enemies, and she stands, to this ex-
tent, in a weaker position. She has
stopped a new foe, but the coming Of
a new foe has worsened her position
palpably.
In the larger sense, the summer
campaign has been wholly unfavor-
able to Germany. 1t has seen the
loss of the offensive by her, it has
seen the steady pounding upon all
her fronts redoubled, it has seen a
new foe brought into the field and
new strain put upon German re-
sources. It has given to the enemies
of Germany new assurances of VIC
tory, and it has disclosed them at
last cooperating and coordinating
their greatly superior resources in
men and in money.
In our own Civil War 1864 was
the most disappointing year of all
for the North, because it was the
year in which the victory that
seemed assured after Gettysburg and
Vicksburg in 1868 was not achieved
despite the terrific sacrifices of
Grant from the Rapidan to Cold
Harbor. The policy of Grant, how
ever, relentlessly applied and mex
orably followed, did, as we see now,
make the collapse of the spring of
1865 inevitable. Men who expected
in 1864 that the victory would be
won in that year were mistaken be-
cause they underestimate the power
and resources of the South to resist,
but they were only mistaken in
degree, and what they believed would
happen in/1S64 did happen in 1865.
Beyond all question the present
summer has been the worst period of
the war for the Germans since the
Marine, because it has seen the grad
ual rise in the strength and efficiency
Of the enemies, who were always
bound to defeat Germany, because
of their superior numbers, wealth,
resources, if the war could be pro-
longed into test of endurance. 1t
has seen the Russians "come back"
and the British at last "arrive."
A war between countries having a
population in Europe of 100000, 900
and countries having a population of
but 10000, 000-and this counts only
the Great Powers-can have but one
ending, if the issue turns upon en-
durance. If Germany's chances of
winning the war in the first weeks
in 1914 were far more than even, if
they were still better than even last
year, because the superior prepared
ness of the alliance possessing in
ferior ultimate resources still count
ed, the balance has already shifted
heavily, the odds are now heavily on
= the Allies.
German agents will make the most
in Europe and here of the temporary
and considerable success in Ru-
mania. On the military side it is
beyond praise, but it has in the
( longer view weakened, not helped, the
Central Powers, because it has sub
jected them to new strain and made
fresh demands upon their greatly in
ferior numbers.
! 1t is not too much to say that with
the ending of the summer campaign
the certainty of German defeat is no
longer to be mistaken. In the United
States, for example, the conviction
that Germany is going to lose has
become wellnigh universal as a re-
suit of the past few months. We,
who have the Civil War as an illu-
minating parallel always before our
own eyes, know how inevitable must
be the outcome of any war which is
fought under similar conditions, and
we are seeing at last how similar
are the conditions. Looking only at
the neutral aspect, it is not an ex-
aggeration TO say that the summer
campaign Of 1916 has convinced the
mass of Americans that, while the
war may last for several years, the
outcome is no longer in doubt, pro-
vided the alliance against Germany
holds, and every sign points to such
a holding.
Unshackling Regulation