New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-08-28
To Look Within
If After the War There Is Nothing Else,
Our Neglected Domestic Possibilities
Are Boundless
-Bv ARCHER WALL DOUGLAS.
st. Louis, August 20.

The part which foreign trade plays
in our Unprecedented prosperity has OF
late become the subject Of political
controversy, with the usual display OF
partisan bias, the usual statements oil
half truths and the usual employment
of partial and superficial statistics. In
such matters, as in all things relat-
ing to their calling, political writer's
and speakers have ever and principally
in mind the effect of their statements
unon the voters. So the sincere stu
dent of economic questions is apt 70
exclaim with Mercutio, "A plague on
both your houses"
The subject, however, is one OF grave
general moment, since upon the true
nature of the situation depends the
continuance Of our present commerciai
activity. We can only conjecture what
will be our business reactions to peace
in Furope. None the less is the land
full of prophets, giving out as many
diverse forecasts dS " "h"N VIZ ~~
ton of the European war will mean to
our commercial life, as did those would
he ancient seers in the most troublous
DAVIS of Israel. All these things may
be interesting mental exercises, but
they have no further value than this
az anv examination of their diametri-
cally opposite arguments and con-
illusions easily disclose.
No Analogy.
! Both precedent and analogy are lack
inc in the business future which lies
Immediately ahead Of us, but an i'm
martial and careful study of existing
fundamental conditions may give us
some conception and understanding OF
the strength and weakness of the
present situation. The immediate and
continuing effect of war orders upon
the manufacturing business is APP
parent enough, and it is equally ap-
parent that with the coming OF peace
this business will come TO a sudden
end. This naturally means a radical
adjustment in many phases of the
present situation, more particularly IN
that section of the country lying east
of the Appalachian Ranges and north
Of the Potomac River. The most
troublesome readjustment will be that
of labor, and no one can foretell what
this may mean. All the arguments
and discussions on this subject ignore
entirely the obvious and farreaching
import of the following facts in rela-
ton to domestic demand.
international Labor.
The two great difficulties now IN
getting orders filled promptly for home
wants are the inability Of the manu-
facturers to secure adequate raw and
finished materials and a general short
age in labor in practically ali manu-
featuring sections. Judging from the
exceedingly small proportion OF OK
ports to domestic commerce it seems
likely that such unemployment as re-
sults from a cessation of war orders
will be readily absorbed by the general
labor shortage now existing, though
not at the high scales Of wages wnicn
such labor is now securing. The fear
that the labor market Will be de-
moralized by food of immigration
from Europe Immediately following
the conclusion of hostilitles is not one
justified by experience. Whether we
will confront such an invasion is
mere matter of opinion, but past his
tory indicates that the ebb and now
OF emigration is largely automatically
determined by the condition of com
mercial affairs in this country. Emil
grants come in hordes when employ
ment is TO be had, and mostly they
stay away, and even return home in
large numbers when unemployment IS
rife. During all these years this great
influx has signally failed either to re-
duce the general average wages of
labor or to prevent them from steadily
rising. Many enterprises, now re-
tarded or else held in allegiance be-
cause of inability to procure the needed
material, will probably be resumed,
especially as the general price of COM
modities will recede from that abb
normally high level which exists to-
day. A foretaste of this is seen in the
severe declines in lead and zinc which
have somewhat curtailed mining opera
tions in these metals, and yet which
have not to any appreciable extent
affected the demand for the many
articles into which the prices of spelter
and pig lead enter as important
factors.
Prices Now and After.
In general, declining prices are ac-
companied by an equally declining de-
mand, and for two reasons. Prices de-
cline as an effect and not cause Of
! falling off in demand, and the
natural conservatism of the buyer
halts purchases until he is satisfied
that the bottom has been reached. To-
day in the commercial world the in
evitably coming lower range of prices