New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-08-27
Awakening to Extent of Germany's Eco
nomic Conquests Stirs Allies to New
Peace Terms Which Only Great
Victories on German Soil
Can Achieve.
By FRANK H. SIMONDS,
Author of The Great War"

When in the early days of the war the
late Lord Kitchener forecast three-years'
war there was little support for his be-
lief in any part of the world. AS the third
year Of the war opens, it is becoming clear
that the most conservative observers are
inclining to the belief not merely that
Kitchener's forecast will be made good,
but that the termination of the war will
come in 1918 and not in 1917.
Il is interesting to note, too, that it is in
Great Britain, where the theory of short
war was held most generally, that the idea
of a war equalling our own Civil War In
length is making most progress. Nowhere
is there the slightest expectation now of
decision this year; such belief as still may
be found that the war will have an early
termination fixes upon the fall of next
year as the time that will see the close.
What are the reasons for this change
in opinion? Why does the four-year period
now seem the probable measure of the
world conflict? The reasons are not diff
cult to set forth; they are military, politi-
cal and economic; but, in sense, the mill
tary element is subordinated to the eco
nomic and the political.
Germans Can Shorten Lines.
To take the military point of view first.
It is the conviction of most Allied observ-
ers that the Germans will be compelled to
contract their lines either in the East or
the West before the winter comes. But
no considerable contraction, no retreat
that will carry the war back into Ger
many, is regarded as even conceivable for
this year.
If, for example, the Germans decide to
shorten their front in the West it is well
recognized that they can retire on the line
Of Antwerp, Brussels, Namur and thence
behind the Meuse to the position they now
hold. at Verdun, and that on such line,
which has been prepared, they could stand
Indefinitely. The retirement would give
them a very much shorter line and would
thus enable the troops that they now use
on this Western front to offer better re-
sistance.
Conceivably the Germans will be driven
back TO this line before winter; far more
reasonable is the expectation that they
NAV be pushed back on the line of Lille,
Valenciennes, Maubeuge, Hirson and
thence behind the Meuse; that is, at the
edge of the French frontier.
Granted that the Germans could be
forced out of both the lines that have been
mentioned. they could still retire behind
the Meuse and stand behind this river,
holding Liege, Namur, Givet and the east
ern bank of the river upstream to Verdun.
Behind this again is the line of the Ourthe,
from Liege south on the frontier of Lux
emburg. through Thionville and Metz. In
each Of these positions they would hold
extremely advantageous lines and each
retreat would actually shorten their front
and diminish the number of men required
TO hold the front.
If the Allied calculations are correct and
German man power is beginning to fail, the
gradual diminution of the supply of men
will not necessarily bring a German col
lapse, because there is chance to shorten
the lines. Now exactly the same situation
exists upon the Eastern frontier, the Wis
tua River offering much the same oppor-
tunity for stand as the Meuse. A retreat
in the East would also shorten the line
materially.