Bisbee daily review., 1916-01-02
LARGE INDEMNITY TO
 VICTOR IN GREAT WAR
 IS NOT ADVISABLE
British Political Economist Says That the Victorious Side Would Not Do Itself Any Good By Indemnity.


 war, is, believe, out of the question: '' declares Joseph King. member of Parliament from Somerset, who has |; figured in the House of Commons for the past five years as an expert on I economic questions. The question as put to him was, at the close of the war, will it be possible, and if possi- ble, will it be good policy. for the vic tors to impose heavy money indem- nity on the vanquished?
 In his reply, Mir. King naturally as- sumes that the Entente Powers will be the victors, but he insists that they have little to gain from an effort to extract indemnity from Germany and her allies.
 etaoinl.4
 "Of course" he says, i've hear many Englishmen remark remark: Certainly, we shall make Germany pay every penny we can get out of ! her, and we shall go on fighting until we can get terms including big sum of money? That sounds very simple, but is it possible? The imposition of an indemnityis a very complicated and difficult question to decide.
 ''Take, for example. the huge indem- nifty paid after 1871 by France to Ger many. AS a consequence of this the prosperity and trade of France was recuperative and progressive, while Germany was depressed and suffer 1 ing. Bismarck himself acknowledged this, and economists in both France and Germany attributed it to the way in which Germany received her French indemnity payments.
 Tn subsequent wars, notably the Russo-Japanese war, claims for in demnitties in money, even when made by the victors, have not been pressed, because of the immense difficulties which they present.
 Any indemnity commensurate with the range and loss of this war must be taken at ahuge figure. Five billion dollars, a sum less than the British parliament has already voted for the war, may be taken as the lowest figure likely to be named Now to pay five billion dollars from one side to an- other is impossible in gold. Even if gold medals could be made, the imme- diate result would only be to immense ly infate prices in the country re- ceiving the gold Prices being raised enormously with no increase in the volume of trade, manufacturers or commodities, would mean intense pri- vation to the poor and a complete up set of commerce.
 The French government surprised the world when in September, 1873, just 27 months after the first indem- nity payment, she paid to Germany the last installment, making a total of billion dollars. France was able to do this by buying credit bills in London, Amsterdam, and elsewhere One-third of billion dollars worth of bills were bought in London, for Eng fish trade had been brisk while Ger many and France were fighting. and London bankers had been lending while the French and German armies were spending. The neutrality and activity of England made the indem nifty. In the circumstances of the present war, no such neutral trading and banking countries exist.
 ''If Germany has to pay huge in demnity, she cannot do it by ship ments of gold, nor by transferring debts due her, nor by creating fresh debts. She cannot pay only by her commerce or productive industry If her manufacturing and shipping and trading houses could be started at at once in full swing, immediately the war ends, she might soon be pay soon be paying off indemnity. But her men will be gone, her credit van ished, her system overturned The possibility of paying under these con ditions seems remote.
 tiyity and trading enterprises are to be revived after the war in order to pay indemnities to her enemies. it means that her enemies will have to trade with her far more than they did before the war If the impover- ished workers of Germany are to make wealth to pay, then there must be customers for their work. These can only be found among the Allies Will they want to encourage trade with her, while their own mills are depressed and perhaps idle? Will those of the Allies, who have been protectionists before, notably Russia, become free trade in order that Ger man workers may produce profits to pay indemnity?
 Writers who have studied the sub ject are agreeing that a nation which proves victorious in war may with profit and advantage Impose a money indemnity on the vanquished only un- der very exceptional circumstances, and three conditions are requisite: the nation paying the indemnity must be very wealthy; it must be i'm measurably weaker in military strength than the victor; and, the war must be short duration.
 There is one possible way, how ever. in which the equivalent of an | indemnity might figure in the Allies peace terms In this latest and great