New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-10-24
BY S. Fl. EVANS

Syracuse. Oct. 23.-He who asserts
that it is possible to predict the vote
Of the State of New York within 100000
is talking foolishness. Straw votes
NAV indicate trends, wise old veterans
with supersensitive political feelers
NAV feel shifts, the canvasses OF the
county chairmen Of the respective par
ties may be taken most conservativeiy'
but the fact Is that nobody really
knows anything about it until the fg-
ures begin to come in.
One election district Is more or less
like another. In each there is an IT.
reducible minimum or heretofore IT.
reducible minimum of Republican votes.
A shift Of FIVE votes in each election
district Of 800 or more voters means
change in the net result Of $4,000.
Here in Onondaga County, where
politics is more or less an exact sci
ence, predictions have been made IN
past years which have been almost un-
canny in their accuracy. The poll
ticians know Onondaga; apparently;
too, the people of the city Of salt and
typewrters and Chancellor Day ana
Raw Smith and Bill Kelly and that dean
of the "old guard" Francis Hendricks,
and of much else besides. These folks
seem 10 be pretty average folks, and
in ordinary years if one who is bent
on finding things out in advance could
get a genuine cline" on Onondaga
County he might, without too much
danger, risk an opinion on the size OF
the majority which comes down to
The Bronx"
This No Ordinary Year
But this is no ordinary year. The
wise ones, Republican or Democrat,
will say quite frankly that they don't
know, that they have not been able as
vet "to get line" on the county.
There is no doubt, of course, that
Onondaga will return a Republican
majority But will it be $4,000 or bet
ter, which would mean that Hughes
would sweep tho state to the tune OF
100000? Or will it be 1000 or less,
which would mean very narrow
squeak for somebody?
The Republicans who are in the thick
Of the fight here are very confident.
The Democrats in the trenches are
equally confident. Here, as in many
other sections. there is a sort OF
vague feeling that somehow, IN some
way, very recently there has been a
trend toward Wilson. Try to dig into
that vague feeling, and you come on
equally vague foundation for it. The
professionals among the Republicans
will tell you that Hughes started too
early and fired too many rounds Of
bird shot. They like the way he is
campaigning now, however. They be-
leve he is hitting some body blows
that are sure to tell.
See Hard Times Coming
There are, too, some lifelong Re-
publicans who take an extremely cold
booded, philosophic view of the I'M
mediate future. 1t might be for the
more permanent good Of the G. o. p,
they say, if Wilson were elected. They
look for extremely bad times, soup
kitchens and bread lines, in about two
years. They say that Wilson and the
Democratic party are sure to make
things rs bad as they possibly could
be. and that by 1920 the American
people would be in a state OF mind to
make it impossible for q Democrat to
win in thirty years.
This sort of talk one gets only from
Bourbons OF the Bourbons, and the
dose Of four years more Of Wilson and
his Cabinet and his party is too bitter
even for them to swallow.
In the country districts and small
towns hereabouts there is a much more
optimistic view Of the situation among
Republicans. There are not any Dem
ocrats worth mentioning. Charles II.
Belts, of Lyons, expressed the views Of
a great many upstate and small town
Republicans in these words:
"The Republicans are going to win
because they can't lose; are going TO
win in spite Of bad generalship. This
case went to the American jury before
the great war started. The evidence
was closed ten months after the Gndcr-
wood tariff was on the books. Unem-
ployment was increasing rapidly, the
charity organization societies were
working overtime, soup houses already
were being set up. The jury has been
holding q sealed verdict ever since.