Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1916-09-16
HUGHES CANNOT LOSE,
WADE ELLIS CONTENDS
Produces Figures to Show That
Election of Republican Can
didate Is Assured.

Hughes cannot lose; he has the votes
in the electoral college to start with"
That is the long and the short of 1t.
according to Wade Ellis Of this city.
formerly assistant attorney general
and trust buster" under republican adj
ministrations. Mr.. Ellis, who has just
returned from campaigning on the re-
publican side in Maine, has made cal
culation based on political figures
which gives Hughes 270 votes at the
lowest. which Is four votes to spare.
Mr.. Ellis forecast gives to Hughes
the state of New York. but leaves In
diana doubtful. Furthermore. he fig
ures that if Wilson should get New
York. Hughes has still a chance to
win; and. according to his figures, Will
son cannot win without New York,
while Hughes can lose New York and
still win. This result is obtained, says
Mr.. Ellis by lining up the states which
are doubtful in the slightest degree and
giving them all to Hughes to Offset the
possible loss of New York.
Counting Electoral Vote.
Mr.. Ellis main contention that
Hughes already has 27O votes in the
electoral college, four votes to spare,
was obtained by him in this way:
He took the states which in 1914, in
state and congressional elections, went
republican by 10000 and over, and placed
them all In the Hughes column. These
states, and their electoral votes. are
California. 10: Connecticut. Z: Illinois.
20; Iowa, ID; Kansas, 10: Maine. g.;
Massachusetts. 1S: Minnesota, IL: New
Hampshire. 4; New York. As; Ohio. "a;
Oregon, 5: Pennsylvania. IS. Rhode
ington, I; Wisconsin, 13. These votes
total 270, and 2s6 are necessary to a
choice.
These are the states which in the con-
publican by more than 10000" said Mr..
Ellis. II have not put into that column
some of the states which went republic
can by less than 10000. and it also
are possibly doubtful. like North Dako-
ia, 5; South Dakota, 5; West Virginia,
s; Wyoming. 3: Colorado. s; Idahoa, 4 ;
Indina. Is; Missouri. 1s; Nebraska. g.;
New Jersey. IA. While I believe that
there is a possible doubt of that, and
1 will not include them in the sure
thing list They total. So votes. Now
If Wilson carries New York with it's
As votes and should carry Indiana,
this doubtful Sc to make up for the
loss of the As from New York.
Figures From 1912 Election.
Take the figures for the 1912 cleo
tion, where Wilson. Theodore Roosevelt
and Taft ran, and give to the democrats
90 per cent of the progressive vote Of
that year and give to the republicans
so per cent. and 1 think you will have
fairly accurate forecast of what the
figures for this coming November will
be.
Il have called Colorado a state in
which there is possible doubt How
ever, in 1912 1t gave Wilson $4,000;
Taft. $4,000, and Roosevelt. $4,000. In
1914 1t gave the republican candidate
for governor. $4,000: Patterson. the
democrat, $4,000. and Costigan. progress
sive, $4,000. This shows a possible ma
jority for Huges, but inasmuch as the
20 per cent of 1912 progressives gives
to the possible Wilson vote a majority,
we won't call it a sure Hughes state.
IN the 1914 election Michigan and
Minnesota were democratic in elect
ing governors on local issues. but were
republican on national issues in elect
ing congressman