New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-01-21

Germany of all commercial acuNlty-Vol
paralyze her foreign trade.
II observers would remember the history
of the Civil War. of the Napoleonic wars.
and not fix their attention upon the minor
incidents as contrastcd with the larger
facts of the present war, they would per
ceive that the conflict is proceeding about as
all similar conflicts have proceeded, and
that such difference as there is inurcs TO the
advantage of the enemies of Germany. Be
tween midsummer Of 1905 and the spring
of 1907 Napoleon defeated Austria at Ulm
and Austerlitz. Prussia at Jena and Aucr-
stadt. Russia at Friedland. He compelled
Austria and Prussia TO make peace on his
terms. and by threat and artliice per-
suaded beaten Russia TO become his ally
at TilSit.
In the American case Bull Run was
fought in July, 1861. and there followed
the long series of defeats in the Peninsula
a; Second Bull Run, at Fredericksburg, at
Charlottesville. before we came to Gettys-
burg in July, 1868, and superior resources
and numbers at last began to tell. Now,
rothing is clearer than that the German
success has not Appropriated Napoleon's
and that Allied defeats have not compared
with those of the Northern armies in the
first two years of our conflict.
All that history can teach us points to
the fact that unless the smaller nation,
the country with fewer men and smaller
resources, can achieve its victory while
its superiority in preparation is decisive, It
is beaten and the only question is the
length of time that the war must run
before exhaustion strikes it down. In the
case Of Napoleon not even the decisive
victories of the earlier years of the empire
we're sufficient Louis XIV also failed
despite MS enormous advantage in prepa-
retion.
The real truth about the Great War is
that day by day and week by week the ma
tions which have every advantage in re-
sources, numbers and sea power are bring
ing up a greater part Of their strength,
and the nation which. with smaller ulti-
mate resources, was able to bring great
err strength up in the opening days, Is
falling behind, by reason of approaching
exhaustion. If Great Britain or France
should decide to stop the course Of the
v ar would be changed, but aside from this
there has never since the Marine and the
User been any real question Of the out
come Of the war.
Germany has already failed in her main
object; she planned to defeat France COM
pletely and take from her a tremendous
Indemnity; she planned TO turn her armies
to the East and dispose Of Russia. She
was then prepared TO challenge Great
Britain, her real rival and her true enemy.
She planned to dominate not alone Europe,
but the world. To-day she is fighting not
Great Britain alone, but Europe, with
only weak allies, and on no side is there
any promise of victory.
The decision Of the war, then, has been
had. 1t could be changed only by a
changing Of the alignment Of the con-
testants, and history does not show that in
tremendous struggles like the present such
changes are to be expected. Germany Is
not exhausted, but exhaustion is coming
in her case first because she is inferior
in all resources and because she made
greater early drafts upon her strength.
The war is proceeding quite as normally
as any disease whose periods and progress
have already been established by science.
The outcome is not in doubt and has not
been for many months.
As for unlucky Montenegro, It's mlseues
are certain to excite sympathy. It's defeat
TO make the German gazettes talk, but 1t
has 10 meaning in the war Cattaro and
the Montenegrin coast were a part OF
the empire Napoleon resigned at Fontaine-
bleau, but possession on the Adriatic coast
did not postpone or prevent decision IN
Champagne and He de France.