New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-10-01
Germans Supreme Effort
To Be Made in East Soon
Eindenburg Will Depend Iron Club Forged by kruPps
to End Years Fighting with Promise OF German
Victory in 1917.
By ]. L. GARVIN.

operations. whether on the Danubian
flank or on the Carpathian side, or
simultaneously on both. If Germany
cannot do this, Hindenburg's game Will
be w.
Enthralling Situation Ahead.
What lies Immediately before US,
therefore, is a very great situation and
one of enthralliug interest, whether
the next Teutonic move should be
real climax of determination, backed
by staggering concentration OF artll-
lerv, or should be mere anti-cllma%
Of disappointment in the sight OF the
Germans themselves.
Let US, meanwhile. state the case
coldly from the enemy's point Of view.
There is nothing that he can do IN the
West except wage a stubborn deien-
sive contest with backward steps. Inc
only thing TO do at Nerdun wheh
Hindenburg was called in at last was
TO cut the loss and wind up bank
rupt speculation. Every risk must be
taken in the West consistently with
n German presumption that the diyl-
sions and batteries left there VIII De
lust enough TO hold the lines unbro-
ken. though deeply denied, through the
winter.
The enemy may be mistaken in that
calculation, but it is one that he is
bound to make. His only offensive
chances lie in the East. There for the
moment is the deadly menace to Aus
tria-Hungary, Bulgaria, Turkey. There
the Central Empires cannot compete
with Russia in numbers Of troops. NO
railway manipulation on the old Tan
nenberg model could give Hindenburg
any sufficient local superiority in
numbers.
Aim to Outgun Russians.
The Germans still hope to do the
thing by a concentration OF heavy
metal. They argue that the Cars
armies have not yet got big artillery
proportionate to Russian strength IN
every other respect. Might it not be
possible, therefore. TO outgun the Rus
slams in the remaining months of the
, present autumn campaign and TO blast
them back by an autumn storm OF eX-
Dlosive? Is not this the last concelv-
able chance?
Next year would be too late. Russia
By then will be too formidably sup
piled with heavy batteries. The Ru-
manian menace must be countered IN
the next few weeks. if its results are
not to be mortal. Germany's interior
lines no longer possess the old value
for the transfer and retransfer OF
troops, but they may still mean a
great relative advantage IN the trans
port Of troops, pending the fatal time
when the Central Empires will be
dominated all round in artillery as
well as in all other arms.
The Allies are. therefore, bound in
prudence 10 expect that Hindenburg
viii remove from the Western front as
many guns as he can and as much Of
the aircraft, in addition to all the new
metal with which the night and day
efforts Of the factories can supply him
In view Of supreme attempt to drive
back Brussiloff and crush Rumania.
Hindenburgs Ambition.
This is c towering ambition, but il is
quite Of kind natural TO Hindenbure
and ineligible in the circumstances.
Germany's situation demands nothing
less than some enterprise Of this au-
dacity and magnitude. If nothing of
that sort were ventured we would have
10 conclude that the enemy is already
weaker, both in temper and resources,
than we are yet disposed TO think.
That the Allies can have no faintest
intention Of leaving all the initiative
or resource to Germany's man OF emer-
gency | need not point out. Contrary
10 all the enemy's fond suppositions IN
August, the Franco-Brtish offensive on
the SomIne is by no means over II
has by no means reached its climax.
The significance Of that factor needs no
emphasis.
If Brussilof we're directly attacked
on the Dniester that most brilliant and
resolute soldier, even II he were taken
at some temporary disadvantage, would
assuredly not make worse fight Of 1t
than the defender Of Verdun, even or
the sector where he might be most
heavily assailcd, while his counter Of
fensive would be felt elsewhere.
By now Rumania, the Russ an army
on the Danube and General Sarrsil
must have million men between them,
and the number can be increased.
Falkenhayn in the long run had no
better fortune than Moltke minor.
Whether Hindenburg will fare better
even for few months or weeks IN the
East than his predecessor Jared at Yer
dun has now TO be seen.