Forest City press. (Forest City, Potter County, D.T. [S.D.]) 1883-19??, 1916-11-08
The Butchers Bill--What
The War Has Cost In Life

10000, 900 in excess of that Of France,
she has been able to put larger num-
bers in the field and her necessities
have compelled her to do this. Many
months ago Austrian casualties were
estimated at 1000, coo. think this fig
ure is now too small, just as j consider
the Russian to be large, but again it
must stand as the best conservative
calculation available. As to the Brit
ism and Italian estimates, they need no
discussion and will probably stand with
little question.
Having thus set forth an estimate of
casualties. 1t remains to point out
something of their meaning. At the mo-
ment hon the war broke out the four
great power united against Germany
ana Austria had q European population
Of around 300, 000, coo. The combined
population of Austria and Germany
was : 5000, 900. Now, there is no ques-
tlon moro keenly debated than that of
the proportion of Il total national pop
niation which can be reckoned as
capable of bearing arms. 1t ma be
~ per cent, IL may be ~, but it will be
tle same for all nations. approximate
~ We may say then that at the out
set OF the war the allies had available
a man I'VE of 80, 000, 900, the central
powers Il man poWer of IL, 900, 600. If
tile aiiies have now suffered casualties
I"ioSitIiS W lo,uuU, ODU, One-tllru OF
thelr whole force has been temporarily
or permanently incapacitated. But ii
inc central powers have sufferede casu-
altles amounting to 5000, 900, two
thlrds OF their man power has been
temporarily or permanently incapaci-
tated.
Now in the case of the German Off
clal figures we saw that the total of
permanent casualties, with relation to
total casualties, was so per cent. Ac-
ceptlhg this ratio we may say that the
permanent loss of the allies has been
o,ooo,Ooo and of the central powers a.
o00,o0o. In other words, the allies have
permanently lost one-siXth of their man
power, the central powers one-third.
ana TINS ratio will remain constant.
whelher the various nations are able
10 put 10 per cent or ~ per cent Of
thelr population into the field.
Here is the foundation of all that has
been said about attrition since the war
began. IN n war of exhaustion the
weaker force must ultimately lose IL
the war continues steadily a trial of
endurance. In the end, IL the Germans
commune to lose at HI rate of a third
OF their man power in the time when
the allies are losing at the rate or oneA
sixth, the Germans and their allies
must succumb. And in the first %
months of the world wal this has been
approximately he ratio of losses in the
tWO CdIIIDS.
Now British critics, notably Mr.
Hilaire Belloc. who follows the E,rench
as well as the British official opinion
fairly closely, but relies mainly on the
french, assert that the German and
AusIrlan losses have already been
much higher, while German and Aus
TRAN critics will place the French
losses. as we'll as the British materially
higher than 1 have. 1t will be recalled
mat accepted the German estimate of
russian losses, with but an insight
ficant modification. Perhaps the facts
both sides.
BUT what want now to emphasize is
that Mr.. Belloc and his How be-
lleve the German and Austrian losses
nave been SO much larger than we have
stimat that they assert hat the
shortage of men. What they mean is
this. As 1t stands it requires MOI much
less than 5000, 900 men to hold the lines
OF the central powers, eliminating the
Bulgars and Turks. If the permanent
loss Of the central powers has only been
4,0O0,UUO. my figures, they still have
S.Ovo,O0O left, and 5000, 600 over the
number needed to hold their present
lines.
But If their permanent loss has beer
t,ooO,00O, then they have left no balance
over the necessary 5000, 900. If it has
been 5000, 900 their balance is only t.
100000, which is not more than six
months supply. When you read re-
ports of French and British critics of
the Belloc school, declaring that Ger
many is facing an absolute decline in
man w yOu will see thai this grows
out of an estimate of the total casualty
lists Of the central powers as some
thing more than so per cent above my
own estimate.
Now it would be possible to fix the
time in which, granted the central
war. they would ave to shorten their
lines, If we had the exact figures of
the losses. They would have to shorten
their lines because they would lack
men to hold the present extent. In this
time no such shortage could be felt by
the allies, because they started with q
man power two and a half times as
great, that is. q total man power of
S0,000.O0 against 10000, 900, and have
never had in the field at any time more
than 5000. 900. II they have lost 5.000,-
the field. they now have q further sup
ply OF 1900. 600, as against 5000, 900 for
the central powers IL our computation
ts approximately correct.
We do know that h population of
the allied nations Is two and q half
times that of the central powers. We dc
know that their losses have been, II
actually greater than the German. and
Austrian, relatively much smaller. re-
gard being had for heir total man
power, and this means that they are
when the reserves of the central powers
have been exhausted.
Take a simple Illustration. Eight men
are fighting i've. Behind the eight are