The Bridgeport evening farmer., 1916-12-18
HENRY CLEWS
WEEKLY LETTER

90 n severe reacC1On III Tic SIoSh
market, especially in shares which
had benefited by the war. The an
nouncement came upon a market al
! ready weakened by over-buying,
making the fall all the more preci-
lpitate. A temporary recovery fol-
lowed, after which the market be-
came demoralized. Just what would
happen marketwise in event of an
early peace is somewhat difficult to
positively anticipate. If hostilitles
were suspended, armies would GER
tainly not be disbanded until peace
terms were actually signed by all the
belligerents, a conclusion that may
! demand months for accomplishment.
During such period war orders
might continue, though possibly on
a diminished scale. Peace or no
peace, Great Britain will in future
buy less munitions here than former
/ ly because she is now prepared to
| produce in full for herself and in
part for her Allies, especially with
the forthcoming assistance from
Canada When peace does come,
Europe will continue to buy steel
here fn large quantities for construc-
! tive instead Of destructive purposes.
Europe will also buy our copper; our
i quantities In order to fill the voids
(which now exist, also to, start pres
ent idle industries. Exporters Of cot
lston alone will go far towards Off
setting the loss Of munition ship
ments.; Moreover, this country is not
as dependent upon munition orders
! for prosperity as it was two years
| ago. We have gotten a prosper
| ity and mentum entirely our own.
I We are enjoying an activity derived
very largely from self-development.
Imitation has enormously stimulated
home industry and while war profits
have undoubtedly been the prime
cause Of this imitation, still the in
creased consumption Of many COM
modities and Injuries in the United
States can be attributed to home
prosperity. Even our export trade
/, Is less dependent than formerly upon
munition orders, which now consti-
!, tl1te less than half Of the increase
mid little more than one-third of our
| total exports. Peace, when it does
come, will also bring another bene-
ficial offset in a revival Of imports,
the lack of which has SO profoundly
leranged our foreign trade. Peace
will hasten general return to nor
NAL conditions in other respects, and
1 It would be unsafe, to assume that
to end the war will be injurious to
business simply because certain in
dustris which have been enriched by
! the worlds misery must readjust
! themselves to a peace footing.
/ peace is not yet in sight, it is high
| 1y important to recognize the chang
/ ed attitude of Germany It is the
/ FOL 70 fo in he vh situation
! The Central Powers have not won
/ any of the great objects for which
. they started, yet they have achieved
( remarkable military successes and
j displayed marvellous power Of re-
distance to the Allies, which the lat
tier will have to take into considera-
ton Germany may never have a
more sopportune time for making
i peace. Both Germany and the Allies
should be allowed to definitely state
! their position, so that the world may
learn how far apart they are and
what basis remains for mediation. In
all probability the views of both sides
! may prove so widely conflicting as to
make serious peace movement at this
time impossible. Nevertheless, the
peace movement is one to which the
dictates of humanity should give
every possible encouragement, and
avert if possible continuance Of the
war with even greater savagery than
now.
The most difficult problem to be
encountered to effect a permanent
Balkan nations.
So far as the stock market is con-
cerned. new stage has probably
reached, namely, the beginning of re-
adjustment of affairs to a peace
basis. The rehabilitation Of the
great armies on both sides may be a
long way off; yet worldwide exhaus-
tion-means that the forces of destruc-
ton are on the wane and that the
dawn Of the new era is close at hand.
While the worlds financial markets
performed strange deeds when the
war began, it is not to be supposed
that those same things will be I'M
i done when the end draws near, nor
What conditions existing in July, 1913,
will beNin any degree restored. That
There will be extensive readjustments
to the new conditions goes without
saying. There should be no cause
for panic; more time will be given
for action; diplomats will supersede
generals; news will be more encour-
aging, anu nope Will cast our fear.
Such changes in fundamental condi-
tons must be reflected in values.
Munition shares will of course be ad-
versely affected, though it should be
remembered that many of these have
taken precautionary measures to
meet all such contingencies. Indus
trials which have been unduly infat-
ed must lead action; and yet these
may suffer quite as much from in
creased expenses as from loss Of war
orders. Commodity prices have been
pushed to such dizzy heights as to
compel economy among nearly all
classes Of consumers. These high
prices spelled extraordinary prosper
ity for the grower and the miner, not
to speak OF organized labor, but they
also meant extra hazards for manu-
facturers and distributors, many OF
whom stocked up more freely than
usual to- protect themselves from
scarcity and high prices. Our whole
machinery of production and distri-
button has been thrown violently out
Of gear by the European cataclysm
and temporary slowing down for
the purpose Of establishing better
balance will tend to really prolong
present activity and facilitate more
equitable distribution of the pro-
ceeds., Our prosperity touched high
water mark month ago; profits
were then at their zenith and the