New-York tribune., 1916-06-17
The Summer of Decision.

Three national conventions, with tull
measure of political excitement, have
served momentarily to divert American
attention from the progress Of events IN
Europe. Oddly enough, in this relatively
brief period there has taken place a re-
markable change in the outward appear
ance of affairs. Unless all signs fail we
are now approaching the greatest crisis
in the wars history since the Battle Of the
Marne.
So far three great campaigns have been
fought: the German attack on France,
which lasted from August TO November,
1914; the Russian attack on Austria,
which endured from August, 1914, to May,
1915. and the German attack on Rus
sia, which lasted from May to Sep
tember. 1915. If one chooses. it is posi-
bic to make a fourth of the Austro-German
attack upon Serbia, but this was relatively
minor and political before it was military.
Each of the three campaigns was de-
signed to eliminate one Of the contestants.
Each failed signally in its purpose, but the
immediate consequences Of the three were
to leave Germany and Austria in posses
sion Of much conquered territory only
counterbalanced by the loss Of German
colonies and the use Of the seas.
Now. the cardinal doctrine of German
military writing has been that Germany
must attack and that German success
could only flow from success in the attack
in advance Of the complete military and
economic mobilization Of Germany's foes
This is precisely the Napoleonic doctrine
successfully asserted in the Austerlitz
Jena and Wagram campaigns.
We all know that Napoleon's empire
finally collapsed because his enemies were
able to parry his first destructive thrust
both in the Moscow and in the Leipzig
campaigns, and finally to overpower him by
brute strength, when they were all mobi-
lized and he was outnumbered and com
pelled to fight three or four foes at once.
Coincident with this unifcation Of the
enemies of Napoleon was the drying up Of
the military spirit Of France and the
gradual annihilation of those splendid
armies born of the Revolution, trained in
the marvellous cycle of victories from
Jemappes to Wagram and commanded by
men who had earned their commissions on
the field of battle. In 1913 France was
weary of war and the Grand Army was
mainly host of recruits incapable Of re-
heating the glories of Austerlitz.
Does there exist present parallel be
tween Napoleonic and German conditions?
The question can only be decided by the
events Of this summer, but it is fair to say
now that the Allies believe that it exists
and that their whole strategy is founded on
this belief
II is true that the German army Of 1916
is not the army of 1914 The better part
of the men who marched to Paris. officers
and soldiers alike, have long disappeared
from the battle line. Those who have
filed their places are brave soldiers; many
trained officers remain; but the flower of
that army which so nearly repeated Ma
poeons greatest triumphs is no more.
And with it has departed much of the
legend of German invincibility and Of the
moral Gift" that came from the faith that
Germany could not be opposed checked
even temporarily halted The legend of
Sedan died at the Marine, as the "sun Of
Austerlitz" set at Leipzig.
In the contest so far Germany has lost
100000 men, She has not won victory
in the larger sense. She has made no
great advance since September, 1915. In
1914 she told her people France would
disappear in six weeks, and France has not
disappeared. In 1915 she told her people
that Russia would disappear as military
power in few months, and Russia is com
ing back victorious from the Pruth TO Pri-
pet. She told her people last autumn that
the road 10 Egypt was open and the Near
Eastern menace would destroy Britains
empire.
All these things have not happened. On
the contrary, Russia. France, Britain with
Italy into the bargain, are standing. Last
year Germany whispered the magic word
of peace to her own people and there was
no peace. Her Chancellor has gone out
into the market places of the world and
clamored peace-"victorious peace" to be
sure, and the answer has come in artillery.
Now, it is plain that within few weeks.
within two months at the most, the Allies
plan TO attack on all fronts. Perhaps the
Russian victories are the first signal. Aus
trian collapse already recalls the days of
Lemberg-but in the Lemberg time Ger
many could turn east, for France and
Britain were staggering under the first
blow. To-day Germany cannot turn east
without exposing herself to deadly peril in
the west If she draws the troops back
from the Balkans q blow will follow
italy Is already on the offensive.