The Washington herald., 1916-04-23
BEATENIN WEST, KAISER TURNS
EASTWARD TO STRIKE RUSSIA

| deaYy fighting in the south Is nkely
to develop first, for several reasons The
weather In Gslicia by the beginning Of
May will permit fighting on a scale that
will be impossible in the Riga district
There is also strong political motive.
| II Ivanoff, commanding the Russian
group of armies in the south. can break
across the Dniester and reoccupy the
Bukowina, the Roumania armies may join
our side. II his opponent. Mackensen,
| wins decisive victories, the Austro-Gcr-
man hosts will occupy the province OF
Bessarabia, coveted by Roumania since It
was taken by Russia in 1873, and Ger
/ man politicians believe they can buy
Roumania's support II able to give them
Bessarabia and protect them against the
Cars vengeance. ... ~.-,
None OF these political motives has
much weight in the northern area of
] Operations. The capture of Petrograd
1 would be a serious matter. but that could
only come after a campaign lasting for
months, and l think it highly improb-
able. From what I know of the weather
| in the Gulf OF Riga district do not be-
lieve an attack in force could be pushed
home there before June, but after the
| surprise the Germans sprang on US by
attacking Verdun in February instead Of
March, I am shy about predicting dates"
l
seem almost certain that the main Ger
man blow will come in the south?"
asked. NO" he said. From our point
of view, It is difficult to say that one
plan has more advantages or disadvan-
tages than the other. Political reasons
! and the state OF the weather urge the
blow in the south, for Roumanias atti-
tude is OF great Importance, and the
Germans are desperately pressed for
time.
Way Easter In Worth.
"On the other hand. the army group,
under Mackensep, is largely Austrian in
composition, while Hindenburg COM
mands only Germans. The German troops
! fight much better than their allies. Gen.
| IvanoT, who faces Mackensen, is more
| highly respected by the Germans than
any other Russian leader. while kuro-
patkin, now commanding Russta's north
ern armies may be held no match for
| the redeubtable Hindenburg. The rail-
way communcations-and this is most
| important point-are very much better
| in the rear of the German armies in
| the north than in the south, and II the
German general stan decides that the
capture OF Petrograd is possible, It VIII
be argued that this would be OF greater
political effect than the accession Of
Roumania. because 1t might force Russia
to make peace"
"Is the coming campaign limited to
blows in the north and SOUTH" I asked
What about the three hundred miles
or so in the CENTER
PInsk Marshes Hold Center.
The hundred miles of impa sable
swamp known as the Pinsk srshes
make impossible any serious hghting in
that region the expert replied, and
not even supplies can be moved through
this district. That means that the north
ern and southern groups OF armies. on
both sides. are cut of from each other.
The situation works more to the advant-
| age Of the Germans, because their troops
can be transferred from one group to the
other by Libau-Vilna Brest Litovsk Rail-
way, while a Russian geneTalissimo who
wanted to send a division from one side
OF the marshes to the other would have
; to send them nearly 1000 miles by train.
be fed, munitioned and even reinforced
from different bases. These bases are
Petrogrsd in the north, Moscow in the
center and Kiev in the south
You seem very sure Of this approach
| ing attack in the east after an aban-
donment of the western campaign"
said. May l take it that your infor-
nation is positive, or may you be mis-
taken?"
"One may always be mistaken in war
the general replied with a smlle."In this
war, however, one is less likely to be mis-
taken than in the past In the individual
battle the commanders receive reports
from aeroplanes and are no longer liable
to surprise movements by large bodies
Of troops. And where the great cam
paisns are concerned, such as we are
now discussing, the amount OF railway
and motor transport involved Is so enor-
nous that it is equally impossible to fool
your enemy about your intention to in
dulging in a movement involving scores
Of divisions and thousands Of cannon"
Teutons Must Check General Blow.
I'm that case" said, why not frank
iy discuss the possibilities involved in
the coming allied offensive on all fronts,
that we hear so much about?"
II will make only one point about that"
he said. "I would gladly talk for publi-
cation about our own proba BILE moves.
but it is against the regulations. The
German attitude toward our offensive is
another matter. The whole point of view
OF the German general staff about the
possibilities of this years fighting can be
summed up in one formula: We must at
any cost prevent the allies from striking
US all at once with their full strength
That explains .verdun. 1t explains the
resumption OF the Russian campaign.
Whatever move the Germans make in
1916, think you will find at the bottom
Of it this desire to forestalI or weaken
our attack. They cannot prevent US from
attacking. of course, but II they can
force now the French, now the Russians
now the Italians, to exhaust their re-
serve Of shell and men, they will make
impossible a general assault by all Of US
with our preparations complete. They
cannot keep this up forever, and that
Is why We are certain to win the war
The German reserves, which I showed
you some months ago could not keep the
existing units in the field at full strength
beyond September, have been depleted by
the fighting on the Meuse, and after the
coming slaughter. in Russia, Germany
may be unable to replace her fallen
soldiers by early in the summer"
End of War Year on stiII.
A discussion of the allied plans follow
ed which 1 am not at liberty to quote,
and then my informant remarked: The
final stage of this war, which may come
this summer or autumn, but which II
think likely will be postponed until next
spring, will be a German defensive on
all fronts, an attempt to hold out after
her diminished armies are unable to make |
any further great attacks.
have quoted at length this authority's |
opinions because he has been consistently !
right in his views Of the general situS- |