New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-05-11
German Figures.

AZ
yrcnch, are fighting for Verdun is 700
ralpably absurd 10 require discussion.
The French have not 100000, or half OF
500 600. on their line at Verdun or IN re
serve behind. A conservative estimate Oh
.be French forces engaged and in reserve
IS 100000, and the German numbers arc
probably about equal. Neither the french
nor the Germans could munition and nam
tain larger forces in this sector, nor coulu
either make use Of them if they could.
When the Germans assert that they are
outnumbered on the Western front. and
have been for long time, they are teliing
q truth which has never been disputed
Tbeir force has been estimated as high as
! 100000 and as low as 100000; prooa-
hlv 500. 900 is a fair figure. The french
have steadily had at least 100000 IN line
and the British have long had over l'ooo'-
900. Probably the Germans had the ad-
vantage of numbers up to the end OF Ine
Rattle of Flanders in November, 1914 ouC
since then they have been heavily ou'num-
bered.
But the most interesting portion OF the
German statement is found IN the declafa-
t;on that the French have now only l,oOo'-
nm mon left available for service. ms
= na,nablv untrue, but it reveals an IN
terestinq German calculation and throws
much light on the present German num-
bors because calculations of French losses
made bv Germans, like those OF German
losses made by the French, are based
Arpelv upon the losses suffered by those
who make the calculation.
Let us take the German figures 1or
French numbers and apply them TO the
German situation. France modified some
G 400 600 men. but not less than 2'Ooo'oUo'
a GOOD third. may be deducted for service
outside the battlefront, leaving the French
an available active and reserve strength oil
4 ooOO 600. On the same basis Germany
r,obil;zed about 100000, and put actually
under arms or in reserve for active service
between 5000 900 and 100000. If the
rroncb have lost 100000 out Of 100000,
.bon the Germans have lost not less than
42Oo 900 of 100000. If the French nave
only l GOO. 600 left. the Germans have not
moro than 100000, assuming that both
have lost at the same ratio.
AS TO this last point there may De
some dispste. Conceivably the French
loss has been slightly higher proportion
atelv than the German. But the Germans
have been steadily fighting, while the
French have had considerable periods OF
TRANQUILITY while the Germans were en-
Gagged with the Russians, the Serbians and
the British. We may say with absolute
fairness that if the French have lost
2.4oO.OOO out Of 100000 the Germans
have lost not less than 100000 out OF
1000. 900, the figures representing per-
manent loss in both cases.
Now, it is certain that the Germans
have still more than 100000 in the held
and in immediate reserve, because 1t re-
ouires not less than this figure to man
their lines, and they still have some
reserves. They have thus obviously taken
their own ratio of loss and somewhat eX-
aggerated it to use as the French ratio.
But have they exaggerated it by much!
Hilaire Belloc, who has laid much stress
upon the attrition detail, has insisted for
a long time that the German permanent
loss exceeds 100000 and probably passes
3.25O.OOO. In that case, as he has main
tanned. the Germans have-allowing 3,OOO,-
l. I ,oha g ton Ii =
tle-under 100000 left as reserve. He
has pointed out also that the German
loss NAV reach to 100000, which would
mean that it had been at the same ratio
as the Germans now adopt for French
losses.
We have, then, interesting II inconciu-
sive data furnished by German figures.
If the French losses and the German are
unfortunately equal and everything
noints to this, both countries are ap-
nroaching the exhaustion Of all reserves
,,c,i nassp. The French assert that the
Germans have reached the point already
and fix the German permanent loss at
around 100000. The Germans assert
that the French have passed the point
and fix the French losses at 2,4OO'oVV.
We have substantial agreement on the
ratio from both sides, in each case ap-
plied 10 the enemy.
We may conclude that both the French
and the Germans have exaggerated Out
% about the same degree. We may as
,.mc that the French still have at least
1000. coo men available and the Germans
around 100000 One may expand
either figure slightly as he chooses TO es-
innate the ratio of German or French
losses a. greater, BIT there Is no basis