Norwich bulletin., 1916-03-29
WARNING AGAINST WEATHER
FoREcAsTING FALLAcIE
Bureau Endeavoring to Render Useful
Service to the Country.

Bureau EndeaVoring to Render Useful
Service to the Country.
Postmaster John P. Murphy OF the
local Office has received circular sent
out by the u. S. Department of Agri-
culture, weather bureau. warning
against weather forecasting fallacies.
Throughout its history the weather
budeau has been called upon from time
to time to caution the general public
against the too credulous belief in al
legged new systems for forecasting the
weather for weeks or months in ad-
vance, or in schemes for the artificial
production of rain, the prevention of
hail, and other proposals to control or
modify atmospheric phenomena or to
forecast them Il long time in advance.
Pretensions of this character meet
with certain credence because there
are a number of people who still cling
to the ancient belief in the influence
of the moon on the growth and devel-
opment of crops, and to the idea that
the weather conditions depend upon
planetary and astrological combina-
tions. AS a rule the general public
is only partly familiar with modern
scientific facts and seems overready to
accept confidently at face value almost
any announcement of alleged new dis
cOVerieS, especially when their exploit
alton is clothed in skilful illusions to
items of the latesht scientific informa-
ton and is accompanied by clever rep
reservations of the benefits that are
to result.
The latest Misrepresentation of this
character now being presented to tho
people of the country in the columns
OF the daily press is an alleged new
system of long-range weather fore
casting said to be based on the riffs
and spottedness of the sun and its
shafts of solar radiation.
When the disk of the sun is minute
~ examined with powerful telescopes.
or when photographed with the aid
of the modern spectroheliograph, the
surface presents a characteristic spot
ted appearance which undergoes slight
changes from day to day, and greater
changes with longer intervals of time,
depending upon the well known rota-
ton of the sun upon it's axis and the
periodic recurrence of the sunspot
maxima and minima. These and GER
tain weli-known related phenomena
are represented to be the basis of the
| so-called discovery.
During the past several years the
weather bureau has received. in the
form of letters, circulars, diagrams,
and blue prints, fun specifications con-
corning all essential details of this al
| legged new system of forecasting. The
| so-called discovery is fully known to
| the weather bureau and has received
nation by its scientific staff. Moreover,
other scientists of international repu-
| tatton now connected with the strong
| est institutions Elm the world engaged
| in astronomical research and conduct
| ing Investigations in solar and terres-
trial physics have also passed upon
these new theories These authorities
! are in accord that the deductions and
conclusions drawn from the solar con-
| ditions on which the new system is
I -
nomena of the kind described do not
| have any direct inuence upon the wea-
| Their at any particular time and place,
and therefore can not be made the
basis of weather forecasting.
Spacious references to the moon, to
| the planets, and to the spottedness of
the sun and it's shafts of radiation al
| legged to dominate terrestrial weather
are but picturesque frameworks upon
which to display weather forecasts for
| sale.
The United States Weather Bureau
| is the authorized agency of the gov
eminent to collect meteorological OBJ
| servations and to make and issue wea-
| Their forecasts and warnings. and ev-
cry important nation of the world has
| a similar organization. All are using
| essentially the same methods, all are
alert to utilize the real developments
of science and to improve and perfect
methods and results, and all condemn
| and disapprove the methods and theo-
| ries of the long-rangers.
| The weather bureau is endeavoring
| to render a useful service to the agri-
| culture, commerce, and navigation of
| the country, and the chief of the bu-
reau is prompted to state openly and
| emphatically the views of the Sureau
on the questions presented in the fore
| going, because the general public is
entitled to know that the government
| officials pronounce this new scheme
| fallacious, and place it in the same
| class with other methods of lagrange
| forecasting based on lunar, planetary
magnetic, and astrological considera-
| tions.
| PDIzEC