Atlanta semi-weekly journal. (Atlanta, Ga.) 1898-1920, 1916-04-21
Where Will the War Be Decided?

That the war will end by an Allied blow upon
Constantinople and a thrust over the Danube to
Vienna is the prediction of Gordon Smith, an Eng
lsh journalist who recently has returned from the
Balkans where he had exceptional opportunities for
first hand study of the military and diplomatic
situation AS reported by Herbert Corey in one of
his interesting letters from Paris, Mr. Smith thinks
that the deadlock on the western front never can
be broken by either side except at an nsufferable
cost 1t is in the east he believes that the decisive
stroke will be made; and events will begin moving
toward a climax as the Entente Powers
muster enough men at Saloniki to induce Rumania
to join them.
Rumania, he says, is favorably disposed to the
Allies and has been all along but "she will not
move except in cooperation with force sufficiently
strong to make success something more than
sonable certainty" That cooperation vouch-
safed, she will not hesitate, because numerous
sons-her fear of Germany her hatred of Bulgaria
and her realization that their future dominance in
the Balkans would endanger ii not destroy her
prestige-incline her to the Entente Mr..
Smith argues from plausible evidence that when Ru-
mania is assured of due support, by the readiness
of half million British and French troops at sa-
onild, she will put six hundred thousand men in
the field. Then, he goes
1--WE can take Sofia, place ourselves astride
of the Dardanelles and cut the line of the Dan
ube. This involves cooperative action with
the Russians of course. Their capture of Err
zerum makes the fall of Constantinople GER
tainty, if such cooperation is effected. The
moment that Vienna is reached the war is
over The Austro-Hungarian monarchy is in
condition and no temper to continue the
war after her capital has been seized. Her
capitulation would Immediately follow"
It will be observed that our English journalist
is dealing rather freely in ifs and banking very
largely events yet to unfold His calculations.
however, backed by mass of impressive cir
cumstances and probabilities AS regards Constan-
tnople there seems little doubt that the position
of the Turks is becoming steadily precarious.
Their line of defense in the Caucasus is broken
beyond repair and that on the Black Sea far
west as Trebizond is cracking. In Mesopotamia,
the British pressing northward along the Tigrs
while the Russians have advanced westward
through Persia TO a point hardly hundred miles
from Bagdad That city, keypoint the road
to India and the Persian Gulf alike, will be taken
unless by shift of fortune now altogether
unlikely the present trend of events is reversed.
And the fall of Bagdad, together with the Russians
progress along the Black Sea, would demoralize
Turkish resistance so profoundly that CONSTANT
nople would be in despair.
Certainly that would be the if at the same
time joint movement of the Allies and the Ru-
manians in the Balkans met with any considerable
success. Against really formidable force in that
quarter, Bulgaria without Teutonic aid would be
Virtually helpless Sofia could not hold out. The
Bulgaria. uton-Turksh chain would be broken. The
Central Empires would be exposed to invasion from
the east. They would be compelled to meet the
enemy a fourth front; and, unless we wholly
misjudge their resources, they would find it i'm
possible to stem the importing tide.
Like all speculation on the war, Mr.. Gordon
Smiths views more interesting than important.
But they well reasoned, and they arouse keen
expectancy to what will come to pass during the
next few weeks months at Saloniki and in the
Balkans.