The daily banner. (Cambridge, Md.) 1897-2008, 1916-10-23
POLITICAL DRIFT FIRM
TOWARD WILSON
New York Herald Poll Shows Presi-
dent Strong in Every Section
West With Him-EaSt Swinging
That Way.

way
Copyright, 1916, by the New Yorl
Herald Company. Ali rights re
served.)
New York, Oct. 21.-The Herale
tomorrow will say:
With election day just 5 days off
the Presidential tide is drifting to
ward President Wilson.
Mr.. Hughes has made slight gains
in States which are normally Repub,
lican, but which are this year ii
doubt.
The President has made gains il
States which are ordinarily Republl
can, but which this year are not only
in doubt, but are likely to decide the
election.
The States in which Mr.. Hughes, ,1r
the Herald's straw votes, has made
gains are New York (up-State) Con,
necticut, Idaho, Massachusetts,, Mon
tana, South Dakota and New Jersey
The States where the President
has made gains are Illinois, Indiana
Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Ne
braska, Ohio, Washington, West Vlr-
ginia and Wisconsin. 1t is neck
and-neck race for the Presidency
Mr.. Hughes has had the lead be-
cause of the normal strength OF the
Republican party and the amalgama-
tion of the Progressives with the
Republicans. But he has been los
ing. He is much weaker than his
party President Wilson has been
gaining. He is much stronger than
his party The two are now practl
cally tied for the lead.
Using as basis the old-t1me
strength of the Republican party and
the comparative vote of Messrs. Taft
and Roosevelt with that of Mr.. Will
son, it was necessary at the outset OF
the canvass for the Democrats to
make huge gains to give them What
would approximate an even start
with their political rivals. But they
have, from all that appears in the
straw vote, made these gains and are
now on what amounts to an even
footing with the Republicans.
Out of a total of 146,064, straw
votes taken in SO States, Mr.. Hughes
has a plurality of 1O7,4O3. Last
week, out of a total of 107,4O3, he
had a plurality of 1926.
In this grand total, however, there
are incorporated 1886 votes from
California. This is out of proportion
to the rest of the country. Califor-
MIA is, from all indications now dis
cernible, the one Republican strong
hold which is holding true to its
standards. Therefore, it would be
hardly a fair computation to include
so large a group of votes from there
any more than it would be to in
clude the same number from State
like Tennessee or North Carolina,
which are just as strongly Demo-
cratic.
If the vote of California were cut
down two-thirds, which would make
81 revealed by the total straw vcsQ
/ asyuld be more apparent.
For instance, il just One-third O
the 1886 votes were included the
total tabulation would show a ma
jority of 355 for the President. In,
asmuch as a very large proportion o.
the test ballots are necessarily gath
cred in what are presumably Repub
lican States, it is only fair that at
tention should be called to the Cali
ifornia situation.
Never in memory of politicians o
today has there been confess
which approached the present one fol
icloseness. Labor is overwhelmingly
for the President. Business is al
most a unit for the Republicans. The
great middle class, small merchants
clerks, brain workers generally, are
divided, and it is next to impossible
to ascertain how it stands. The indi
cations obtained in the Herald'S poll:
to date show that these men are in
clined to favor the Republicans. They
and the silent" vote, which is more
numerous this year than ever before
will decide the election.
The Republicans say that the al
most sensational drift of wage-earn
ers to the Democracy in the last
months has reached it's highest point
and that the swing back has begur
and will continue till election day
it is conceded by the Republican:
that unless there is swing back
there is some justification for Repub
lican gloom.
In addition to the labor drift tt
the Democrats, there is, in all the
Republican States, small, bu1
steady, drift of Republicans to the
President on the contention, "He
has kept us out of war"
There is likewise a steady drift o.
Democrats of the business worl(
swinging into line for Mr.. Hughes.
When the Herald's first straw vote
tabulation was published the Presi
dent was receiving IS per cent o.
4 the total vote cast. He went the
\ second week to 46, remained there
for a week, and in the last compila
tion, given today, he is receiving
4714 per cent. of the total vote, anC
is now receiving SO per cent.
In the comparative shifts from par
ty to party and from the Progress
sives the President makes sains also
The total gain of Mr.. Hughes from
all sources-from Roosevelt apo
Wilson, 1912-was roughly to ]
than to l.
The Hughes gain from the Roose
velt vote of 1912 in the first tabula
tion, was approximately four to one
Now it is about three to one. The
percentages of gGins in all the States
from the Progressive rangs show thai
in the Herald's first computation Mr.
Hughes was receiving IT per cent
and Mr.. Wilson 81 per cent. of the
Progressive vote. Now Mr.. Hughe.
is receiving rs per cent. and tht
President % per cent. of the same
vote The swing has unquestionabl.
been in the direction of the Presi
dent.