New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-11-19

the remainder is chiefly temporary
demand. due to the inability Of those
TO obtain their usual sup
lilies from their immediate nelghbors
in Europe.
Gain in Exports to
Europe Temporary
Little of this increase in our eX-
ports to the neutral European coun-
tries can be expected to be perma-
nent, and, as for the neutral coun-
tries in other parts Of the world, we
have already evidence that every
country now at war will at the re-
turn Of peace enter upon an active
campaign to regain any part of their
foreign trade which we may have
absorbed during the period in which
they were unable to give 1t the usual
attention. Indeed, their campaign
for regaining those markets has al
ready begun. British exports in the
ten months of the present year act
ually show a larger value of domes-
tic merchandise exported than in the
corresponding months of 1914, most
of which cover a period prior 10 the
beginning of the war. The total of
British exports for the ten months
of this year amounted to S2.O59, 600,
900, against s2,O19,0O0,0OO in the
corresponding months of 1914. In
France the exports Of the first eight
months Of the current year, while
officially stated at but S433,0OO, 900,
against 1876, 100000 in the same
months of 1914, are, in fact, accord
ing to statement by our Consul
General at Paris, about $3.50, O0O,-
600, when based upon a proper val
uation. and this, it must be remem-
bered, is an expectation from but
about 60 per cent of the manufact-
uring area Of that country, the re-
mainder being either under German
control or occupied by the armies OF
the Allies. And, when we consider
that France has already taken wig
orous steps for the re-establishment
of her foreign trade at the termlna-
ton of hostilities, it is apparent that
she will also expect to regain a large
proportion of the trade which has
temporarily passed into our hands.
This is apparently also true of Ger
many. which, according to current
reports, is planning for an active
trade campaign in the other grand
divisions when the re-establishment
Of peace permits her to resume her
commercial activities abroad. As to
our exports to the warning countries,
which have so enormously increased,
we must expect, Of course, an abso-
lute termination Of the movements
of materials now utilized in conjunc-
ton with the war, while the very IA
cilitv with which we transformed our
establishments into a
condition by which they could quickly
turn out war materials suggests that
the manufacturing establishments of
Europe will promptly readjust their
present war industries to meet do
nestle requirements Of their own
people, and also those required for
re-estabishing their markets abroad,
and they may also pour into this
country. through the widely open
doors supplied by the lowest tariff
that we have ever had, large guam
titles Of merchandise to compete
with our own manufacturing es-
adjustments.
As TO the theory that the warning
ations are likely TO refuse to trade
with each other after the war, it is
not, in my opinion, a tenable one.
Certainly, no such thing has ever
happened at the close of other wars
in which the bitterness during the
period of hostilities was just as great
as that which now exists between the
hostile nations.
1t is not a pleasant duty TO state
these facts with reference to the
probable future of world trade, and
our own relations thereto,
but it is nevertheless a duty to you,
representing our great banking and
financial interests, as well as TO the
manufacturers of this country,
which must look 10 manufactures as
the chief source for the future en-
yargement Of our exports. We are
no longer able to spare for foreign
countries any considerable quantity
of agricultural products other than
cotton. and If we are 10 continue TO
increase our exports and maintain
our rank as an exporting nation 1t
must be accomplished with the prod
ucts Of our manufacturing indus
tries.
Manufacture
Neolect Opportlinitles.