New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-09-18
PREDICTS s MORE
YEARS OF BATTLE
Head of Navy League Be-
lieveS Germany Can Hold
Out Until 1921.

Washington, Sept. 1.-THE war IN
Europe will last five years yet" Colonel
Robert W. Thompson, president Of the
Navy League, declared to-day. 1T
seems 20 be fashionable just now 70
prognosticate the end Of the war. |
believe. however, my forecast is based
on better information than that of most
of my rivals.
zone Of the most reliable experts of
the Navy League has spent year IN
Europe since the war began He has
devoted a lifetime to the study of mill
tary problems. His judgment Of mill
tary organization should be the best.
He believes the war will end about 1921.
This conclusion IS reached Colonel
Thompson said. from an estimate Of
the situation in Euroue. 1t is pointed
out that the contende:s are completely
deadlocked at present. After two years
of fighting here is almost no advantage
TO one side or the other. The offensive
still shifts from one antagonist 70 the
other. as does the defensive. The de-
termination and confidence Of neither Is
materially shaken.
Struggle Toward Exhaustion.
History tends to prove that wars
are decided quickly by demonstration
Of superior strength on the part of one
contestant. or that they must be fought
through many years until partlci-
pant is entirely exhausted.
"In the present war the ability OF
neither antagonist 10 push home
quick victory is but just now demon
strated. II may therefore be taken that
the struggle toward exhaustion IS Dut
just begun.
THE information in the possession OF
the league" continued Colonel Thomp-
son. would lead to the conclusion that
the defeat Of Germany is inevitable. It
will, however, require long time 70
establish dominance over the allies OF
the nation 10 drive her back inside her
own borders. Ii will take much fight
ing 20 expel the Germans from France
and Belgium.
This accomplishment should take
some two years. When It Is made a
reality the actual struggle for mastery
will have but begun. Germany within
her own borders. with her lines thus
greatly shortened. with the response
bility for directing and provisioning
her less efficient allies gone, will be
most formidable.
Germany Self-Sustaining.
Germany has pretty well demon
strated her ability TO live within her
self TO produce the necessities or me
for her own people. Her ability 70 do
this is increasing with each year she
faces the necessity. Early IN the war
il was held that Germany must soon
be without some indispensable neces-
sity for its continuance. II was pointed
out that cotton was the principal factor
in the manufacture of smokeless
nowder and that Germany could not
grow cotton. But Germany found a
substitute. Il was shown that Ger
many would not be able TO get rubber
for her automob' 2 tires and that her
roads would not survive an iron tire.
But German trucks are now running on
iron and sportation continues.
Germany seems 10 have proved that
she has within herself the means for
carrvinc on the war indefinitely.
Battling within her own borders, she
will die very slowly. 1t should take
three years after she is driven back to
those borders.
III the war lasts five years longer
tho United States, If she acts wisely,
will have just that much more time to
Get ready for the many emergencies
that may come at its close. In that
time of world readjustment crises are
sure to arise which no man can foresee.
II America then is prepared, if she
has strength fitting a nation OF her
rank, she may face those tumultuous
times with confidence and play a part
in world affairs that will make her
people proud of their citizenship