The Washington herald., 1916-06-23
After the War.

zine for July Thomas w. Lamont, of the firm
OF J. T. Morgan Co., discusses at length the
new financial relations between the United
States and European nations, resulting from the
war and the worlds industrial prospects after
peace shall have been restored In the conclud-
ing portion of his article Mr. Lamont reviews
both conditions and theories and gives his own
conclusions as follows:
In thus picturing the industrial situation sub
sequent TO the war, there are two general
schools One holds to the belief that business
prostration IN the now warning countries will
terrihe destruction of wealth and capital, and to
the continued necessities of the governments to
meet the interest on their huge loans,
money will be in heavy demand and rates Of
interest high; that this demand will make itself
felt all over the world, and will tend to curtail
new enterprises everywhere; that here in the
once more the pinch of poverty will be felt
and depression in business be long continued
Ihis school holds, furthermore, that the vast
age OF human life will have been so great that
abroad there will be dearth OF labor, both
skilled and unskiled; and that almost a gene
ration, in point Of time, will pass before this
NAL conditions OF life and industry brought back
The cost Of living, these theories declare, will be
maintained at distressingly high figure, owing
TO the high cost OF labor and to the continued
heavy government taxes. The same school points
out, too, that the belligerent nations will suffer
gTievously from the loss of whole generation
IL.
rally would have been the leaders in science and
industrial progress over the next two decades.
The other school is much less pessimistic. 1t
comedies certain industrial languor and hesita-
tlon immediately following the war; but is con-
hdent that 1t will not be long continued. Its
argument runs about as follows: The destruc-
will be found to have been greatly overestimated.
10 be sure, there has been destruction of viii
lagos by the Wholesale, but. as compared with
the total, the amount of fixed capital destroyed
will be small percentage. OF gold and securi-
ties there has been practically no loss. The
process of industrial repair will begin at once,
ing soldier to beat his sword into plowshare
Moreover, there will be ample capital to serve,
and at reasonable rates of interest. The reason
therefor is two-fold: First because of the enor-
nous savings resulting from the economies Of
the people at large; and second, because of the
vastly increased effectiveness in production of
warning nations habits OF extraordinary thrift
have been practced and are being permanently
cultivated. And when populations aggregatng
two or three hundred million people are saving
as never before they build up capital almost
as last as even such world can waste it.
Furthermore, this school reiterates, the quail
determination, which the is steadily eulti-
vstlng, will render industry abroad much more
skilled tool than ever before. Then, indeed, will
scientific management" come to its real frution.
try continued on even greater scale than to-
day in Germany and England. But in any event
VIC sHdIl see peter organization thdl ever
before. And that means that American industry,
labor, manufacture, will meet far more forrni-
dable competition than OF old. Our markets will
be flooded with products from an Old World
made over, working at top speed, with Or
ganization more aroused, skilled, and effective
than before.
of thought is right or wrong3 Time alone
will reveal which, if either, Of them has pro-
dueed theories OF value; II neither Of them,
OnlV the unDrecede0ted is 70 he 81
Whatever be the status after the war, it is
plain that today, and for some years to come,
chants of America ,unexampled opportunity for
so easy as to be available without wise and
generous H.,. vision; Great Britain and Germany
both cautious and courageous. They have gained
strong positions in markets like South
America and the Far East by first creating the
demand for their wares and then by supplying
and financing that demand. Most OF the public
utilities today in those markets are owned by
British and German, sometimes French, Belgian,
or Dutch investors. An English manufacturer
will furnish electrical equipment for street rail-
way IN the Argentine, will accept bonds in pay
ment, and then an English securities company
English investors The process is repeated over
and over again; and SO, in course of time
great pioneer and trading nation like the Eng
Ish secures solid foothold all over the world
lust now, however, owing to the war; neither
England nor Germany is able to maintain its
o!d-tlme policy OF financing its great customers
abroad Already these customers are turning to
America for help. Upon the liberslity and wis
dom with which America meets such demands
will depend the extent to which this country
builds up her trade in those foreign regions.
Great opportunities, too, are opening before
us on the continent Of Europe itself. Russia is
beckoning to us with insstent finger. Hither-
to Germany has largely supplied industrial Rus
sla with her equipment. Russia declares that
after the war she will be slow to renew those
trade relations. Whether or not that feeling
urI n PrtccY E. !
her government officials are just now inviting
America to come and open up new markets to
equip railroads, to establish branch banks. SINH
arly, we can see signs that for Belgium even
for Northern France, American machinery and
American capital may be required to rebuild
bridges, roads, and factories From London
mobilizing its holdings not alone of American,
but of all foreign securities may come the suR-
gestion that American capital buy from the Eng
lsh holders securities. representing the control
OF some important railway south Of the equator
link in chain coupling up new and fertile
regions.
And with any such Developments as picture
with America lending her aid in safe and a.