New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-11-26
.DANGERSLURKN
WAR PROSPERITY
Manufacturers Base Fut-
ure Contracts on Present
High Cost of Materials
Philadelpiu, November "a.


bearings in the presence Of the most
extraordinary demand for leather that
the world has ever seen and general
scramble for various classes OF raw
material The developments have been
so sensational as to make it diffcuit
for sane men to believe that they were
sane. Certain manufacturers have
made so much money out of the effort
to clothc belligerent Europe that they
are setting aside rainy day fund"
to cover the vicissitudes OF the read
justment period. This is only natural
under the circumstances, for no one
of ordinary intelligence can expect
such conditions 20 continue indefinitely.
More than one leather man will tell
you that there is danger OF shoe
shortage developing in this country IL
foreign buyers continue their pur-
chases of sole and other grades OF
leather. This situation has been made
more difficult by the determination OF
the British War Office to take pos
session Of all OF, COW and bull hides
imported into the United Kingdom
from various countries. including
South America. Many tanners OF
heavy leather are sold up for months
TO come. The foreign demand has
been urgent, with total sales more
extraordinary than most people have
any idea OF.
A real shortage in hides is con-
fronting the United States, owing
largely to the activity of foreign
agents in not only buying all Of the
American supply that they can lay
their hands on, but in getting control
Of most Of the South American stocks
that will become available during the
next few months. This accounts for
the action OF shoe dealers In charging
50 and $40 a pair for shoes that they
formerly retailed for Sc or 81. No one
knows how much higher prices will
20. since the American supply has been
pretty we'll covered by contracts al
ready made with domestic and foreign
interests. The large sole leather
houses are turning down, every day.
lucrative orders which under normal
conditions they would be glad to book
at less than the prices offered. At
the prevailing prices for hides, the
large tanners cannot replace the
leather that has been sold. II they
seek their supply in South America
they will have to compete with Great
Britain, so that it is difficult % in
crease production.
A further rise in the price OF basic
iron has carried that market to new
high levels. so that fresh buying is
being attracted from various sources.
This demand reflects an immense vol
ume Of domestic business, as we'll as
that which belongs TO the category OF
war orders. Some Of the large textile
mills are booked way ahead, and those
engaged with the production of yarns
arc getting prices which make it adj
visa5le for them 10 increase their out
put as much as possible.
More Machinery than Labor
But the labor shortage is so great
that this is impossible, even in cases
where the necessary machinery could
be supplied II is exssperating to find
highly paid labor becoming more in
efficient and more Independent as the
demand for il increases. In some in
dustries there are two or three places
for every available man. This means
that the average employer has to treat
his employe with az much Difference
as the book agent shows to man 20
whom he is trying TO sell a $3.50
encyclopedia.
The story is the same throughout
this district. II is probably true that
100000 additional skilled workers
could be adyantageously employed at
days notice if they should apply for
Jobs. But the men arc not to be had,
and II you have them you have 10 pay
almost any reasonable wage to keep
them.
Philadelphia has a good many war
made millionaires" Besides these.
there are dozens of producers who
will clear from s25o,oO0 to 100000
on the years business. Almost every
banker YOU meet can tell you stories
which show that his customers are
enjoying prosperity which they never
thought Of before the war began. One
true story concerns manufacturer
who did in a single day not long ago
twice as much business as he normally
handles within a year. Besides the
large industries. there are numerous
small producers located here whose
bulging bank balances tell a story Of
phenomenal prosperity.
u is recognized, however. that this
sort OF prosperity involves serious
dangers which cannot always be
guarded against in advance. One diff
Guilty has to do with the stocking up
with raw material at prices which
could not be paid in normal times.
The danger is In overlooking with
raw material purchased at "war
prices" The increasing cost Of raw.
material. together with a constantly
advancing wage scale. is reflected in