New-York tribune., 1916-04-27
A GERMAN BOYCOTT
Reasons for Believing Mr.. Garvins Idea
Fantastic.

/ To tho Editor Of Tho Tribune.
Sir: In The Tribune OF April IS J. l. Gar.
yin. Of London. cxpounds AZ length the cher
/ ishcd British idea OF a trade war against Ger.
many In rather poetic language he explains
| to Us how Germany will be utterly ruined By
being shut out from thrce-Gfths Of the word
Germany will be Ike the prisoner in PO,i
grim Gale. shut up in the ron dungeon says
Garvin. rather mechanically.
The Central Powers can boast OF 10000
900 people. To talk Of their being shut up 70
4 dungeon .r rather ridiculous; they have no..
/ only the vast outle. 20 ihe Orient assured
but their situation is such that they divide
/ the two great halves OF the combination Of
/ powers called the Entente. n they retsliss
and, for example. bar all Russian traffc from
thcir territory. shutting at tho same time The
DardaEelles, Russia viii be a. hopeessg
shut out from ali foreign trade she hs.
been for the last twenty months. Russia
climate and railway system make the Sl'F
empire dependen; upon the good will OF ~
western noighbors. And only complete &C.
feat Of Turkey can wrest the key Of the
Black Sea from Gcrmanv's ally.
The lilies have in their own possession
every single clement agricultural and MN
eral. required for modern production and e.
change" while Germany cannot do vltnou.
The Allies II would have been better hs'
Nr. Ga.vin substantiated such assertion
The events of the last two years DO not sec"
10 confirm these statements. On the cor
trary. Germany has been able 70 DO vltnos.
the Allies. She has invented or periee'e'
quite a number of substitutes for goods s''
used TO draw from the markets Of her pre-
cnt enemies. Most branches OF her ndush
are ~ full swing. and even the most arde'
Germanophobes have abandoned the hope t"'
Germany's economic fabric would soon CO
lapse. Germany's industrial organization h~'
stood the severest test possible. and u is n''
easy TO see why il should be worse on "hea
peace comes. The Allies, on the other hsN"
are still seriously hampered by lack oil ue'
man products, which they are unable 10 "
without or 20 replace. Dyes and terti!i''
coal and medical supplies. chemica ana e.e'
trical products form sore spots IN the AIii''
equipment. Germany has really become W
dependent in quite A number OF s1pp""
nitrate, manganese. guncotton, ruo0'.
camphor etc. whereas the Allied coSh''''
have become more and more dependent upV'
foreign products. Frances industry Is cry
Piled. Russia's is welnigh annihilated, Vr''
Britain is seriously hampered facts "nN-
find their expression in the enormous ip
ports into these countries and the dwino'.'
exports II Germany has lost her eAp0'',
she is also rid Of her imports. and not m'''
the worse for il.
After the war the manufacturers a..
traders Of the Allied countries will hnd o..
again that Germany is not only an eNpo''-s
but also an importing country. In ise', -
ports INTO Germany used by far to exceed ~
c.ports. as any statistical abstract oeio's =,
war proves. That industry and trade O.
United states would be affected by an e.
moric alliance of the Entente countries
brought into a position similar TO 'nS'
Germany is patent 70 all observers.
But even in the case OF such an allian0'
would be vainglorious talk 10 treat uer"s -,
as shut of from the rest OF the "oria' ~
only would the markets OF the Near b"N
reserved 10 the German trader. oui ''' -.
Americas ard China would Offer VAST 0Pp
tun.t.es 20 German commerce nese -
tries would greatly profit by interns,.'.,,s 80
competition such a. German energy VI"
about.
Disaster will befall Gcrmany's shippr:ss
such is Mr. Garvin's worst threat bu' -" -,
karbors are not the only ports German 80 a..
can sail TO. And in the face OF the rsp'o -.
struction OF merchantmen during the "S' a,
sulting in soaring freight rates, IT Seems
very probable that Allied business in''..
will allow 100000 tons OF the best 'essV, r.
vessels TO be shut out from their rcae"
Germany's ships taking 10 the high seas iii
rests the hope that the freight rave "a,
again come down TO reasonable lever N
near future. or else Allied commct" I'D
labor under n severe handicap when ,',,0n.
prove disastrous in international eomporX
DR.. r. J. oBERfoHREN
New York, April 20, 1916. --~