Honolulu star-bulletin. [volume] (Honolulu [Oahu, Hawaii]) 1912-2010, 1916-02-19
large BANKERS
NOT SURE What
FOLLOWS FRAY
Financiers Have Divergent
Views on Effects Of Big,
European War
NOT SURE PROSPERITY
WILL 0UTLAST STRIFE
Munitions and Supplies Orders
Increasingly important in
Business Revival

exhaustion or military ach1evement,
or both, the war in Europe must soon.
er or later come TO an end. and no
matter what the determining factors
may be, or which nations may emerge
victorious, II is certain that far-reach-
ing changes in the worlds business,
and, what is particularly important
on this side OF the Atlantic, in the bus
mess, both foreign and domestic, OF
the United States, are bound TO en-
sue. says the New York Annalist.
But though II 10 a foregone couclu-
sion that epoch-making Developments
VIII occur. we can be sure OF nothing
else. As TO what course they will
take and whether the prosperity now
being enjoyed by this country win
continue to grow or viii be suddenly
checked with the coming Of peace 1t
Is only possible to hazard q guess.
Nevertheless, the opinions of those
who have made profound study OF
the subject are valuable, because they
furnish the only guide which We can
have to shape our course through the
fogey future.
Therefore II may be Of interest to
present, collectively, brief summaries
Of the views TO which. some promin-
emf businessmen and economists have
given public oppression In the last
few months.
Wa Orders Z Factor.
The question of whether or not the
. United States viii continue to prosper
when hostilities have ceased Is q par,
ticularly hard one TO answer, because
there IL no precedent upon which to
baSe forecast 10 Q large extent the
expansion OF American business
WHICH has occurred In the last few.
months has been based upon war
trade sof various kinds, including the
products of agricnlturs ss well as
munitions sof war Since C b very
probable though opinions differ
even on that .p0ink. =. that the greater
part OF this form 81 trade activity will
come to an end With the cessation OF
hogtilitiesl the effects OF what has
been termed the shock of peace viii
depend upon the extent to which Am
erican business has been able to con-
struct q solid foundation for domestic
commerce beneath the superstructure
Of huge war orders.
this has been accomplished, though In
what degree II would be impossible
to say. But war orders are playing
q less and less Important part In the
revival which. according TO some au-
thorities, has already reached point
where the general condition OF bush
ness IL far above normal Witness
the estimate Of the Franklin National
Bank Of Philadelphia In Its December
review Of busi;iees conditions:
"A general casting up Of the situa- |
ton at this time indicates that per-
haps IS per- cent Of the businesses IN |
this country are sold up or oversold.
and therefore on profit-paying basis. |
1t Il likely that ell or q part Of these
profits for q time must 60 to offset
previous losses. but before the lapse |
OF many weeks these businesses viii
be paying extra dividends. This leaves
6 per cent Of business generally eth
er doing q hand-to-mouth business and
just running even. or running behind.
While II Is an unfortunate condi-
ton which makes even 5 per cent OF
our business interests suffer, we must |
remember that even in our most pros
porous times we have never before
reached q stage In which as large = |
proportion as IS per cent Of business
es were enjoying their rightful meas
ure Of prosperity.
Domestic Trade Growing.
II industry Il on IS per cent basis
land II Is on q basis Of more than
100 per cent In some lines, for steel
companies are now refusing orders
for lack Of facilities to handle them
then q very large part OF II must be
domestic business, and further testi- |
mony to the fact that we are getting |
away from dependence on war orders |
came last week from the other side
Of the continent. when the Wells Far.
60 Nevads National Bank Of San Fran
cisco said,
Optimism is displacing pessimism
throughout the country, although the |
war continues TO be the single influ- |
ence overshadowing everything else. |
But much Of the betterment in busi-
ness has been In lines not related to
war orders, or to an abnormal de. |
mand from neutral markets. This Is
fortunate, since the sort of prosperity
that Is dependent upon war business
alone Is too ephemeral to be Of last
ing good. The best news that the
country could receive would be the
ratification Of peace compact end.
ing the war and putting the world on
a peace basis again. No one knows
when that happy result will be achiev-
ed nor what further struggles are me-
cessary to bring It about The world
war is still the greatest deterrent to 4
business enterprise. and until the end
can be clearly foreseen it is idle to
suppose that new construction pro-
jects on large scale can be taken
up"
Thus, American business is Id
state Of high prosperity which, in all