The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1916-06-12

man may measur for himself the rela-
ton Of the Chicago conventions to the
business and banking prospect near and
remote. but nrst Impressions must re-
main subject to modification. for politics
10 not BY any mean the only factor In
the present business and financial reck-
oning. Even while notice was 10 much
engaged with the Chicago dispatches in
the last Few days due attention was
paid 70 the European advices showing
that whether or not the European war
reaches n conclusion by battle his
year the conflict itself seems to Be
approaching a climax Of military effort.
The course Of the war cannot fail to
Affect and influence our political cam
paign and IL bound to react on the bust
ness and financial markets. Further
more. while anticipations Of peace have
again been ~subordinated TO the continu-
alton 81 war factors all commercial and
financial operations must be qualified by
the thought that after this years. ordeal
Of battle next winter may bring real
negotiations for peace.
Business remains remarkably free
from n signs Of . substantial 1etup.
seasonal or otherwise. It may turn out
hat .he maximum OF expansion was
achieved In May when the output Of pig
Iron broke all monthly records and
building figures reached an unprecedent-
ed total FOR any month. but forward ac-
tivities are etoutly supported by the
rivalry 81 domestic and foreign buyers.
OF late as domestic inquiry has tended
to slacken In any line an increased ex-
port demand has appeared and volumes
are we'll supported for the tests Of the
political campaign and the vicissitudes
Of tho crops.
Coming 1ndueaee Of Crops.
The progress Of the crops IL indeed
likely TO be a distinct influence after a
few weeks. so far the season 10 back
ward. an illustration having been af-
forded by the Government crop report
as OF June I. All condition figures given
were below the average of recent years.
and the indicated total yield Of wheat,
$4,000. 900 bushels, will II harvested be
the smallest In hve years. However, the
quantity Of moisture In the ground. even
though there Ia a connection between the
lateness OF the season and the fall Of
rain. Is an earnest OF the possibilities OF
agricultural Improvement as the season
advances. and At the worst the present
agricultural outlook IL for a fair aggre-
gate Of harvest and farm production.
Various causes have cor lned to bring
about a hardening IN the money market
and money Is ceasing to be an alto.
gether academic factor In banking and
business calculations. Yet II can be said
only that the frmer tone evinced by all
forms OF credit accommodation shows
simply that the money market has
shifted from its prolonged position OF
extreme ease toward a position more
normally Ter with the enor
nous volume of business activity. the
level Of prices and the circumstances Of
the European war. which has made New
York tho principal world market for
funds. The low level Of rates at which
money has ruled has been more aston
ishing than a far higher level Than seems
likely to be established soon would be In
the conditions which the European war
has created. There 10 q large capacity
for credit expansion which can be
brought into employment by more re-
munerat.ve lending terms. and appre-
hension on the score OF money would
seem rreposterous. Nevertheless. the
frmer tendency Of rates advertises the
wisdom OF n conservative employment Of
funds henceforth. and II Is fortunate that
a more normal market for money will
vest serious nance with some effective
power TO control the expansion Of bust
ness and the movement OF the securities
market so that the most essential un-
dertakinEs In tho provision OF capital
and credit to domestic and foreign bor-
rowers and the facilitation OF the do
nestle and foreign exchange OF goods
and commodities may command prece.
dence.
As for the stock market. II has con.
tinued to display tendencies toward
strength IN response to operative effort
which have indicated hat In many direc-
lions the line OF least resistance was for
ward and that. while political disap-
pointment might he resisted by quoted
| values. political encouragement TO con-
fdence could be reasonably reflected.