The Wallace miner. [volume] (Wallace, Idaho) 1907-current, 1916-08-17
DISCUSSION Of THE METAL MARKET BY
RECOGNIZED AUTHORITY ON THE SUBJECT
OPTIMISTIC GENERAL sITuATIoN-THE EXPECT
HAPPENED sPELTER, LEAD AND COPPER
OCCUPY STRONG POSITIONS

ION1 TSoI ! iONos
B The future of the metal market and
the influences at work to break 1t or
maintain it form a subject Of absorb
ing interest at this time to the people
of the Coeur d'Alene district and to
the scattered thousands who hold
shares in Occur d'Alene lead and zinc
mines. During the last year and a
half of phenomenal prices every
thoughtful person has realized that the
! time must come when prices would
seek a lower level as soon as the
world war influences reduced the tre-
mendous demand The disturbing
question was and is, will the reaction
stop at a return to normal prices or
will the new conditions developed by
the war drive prices to the other ex-
treme and completely demorallze the
market? No one, of course, can an
swer the question to a certainty, but
it is highly reassuring to find those
high authority and who have no sell
fish interest to serve taking an optim-
istic view of the metal situation. The
current issue of the Engineering and
Mining Journal, which ranks among
the leading publications of its kind In
the world, discusses the subject edit
orially, and as it is a matter upper
most In the minds of most readers of
The Miner, it is here reproduced in
full:
The Situation in the Metals.
"About three months ago there was
a cessation in the feverish activity
that previously had prevailed in the
metal market for long time and in
all cases there were recessions in price
which in some cases were very severe.
The last was true especially Of zinc,
antimony and tungsten. The prices
for copper, lead and iron and steel de-
clined but in nothing like the same
proportion as the other metals. How
ever, with the feelings of pessimism
over financial and commercial pros
poets that began to develop, there was
an expectation in many quarters that
copper, lead and iron and steel would
meet with more or less the same fate
as the other metals There were to be
no more war orders. The clock was
months or more ago, and some finan-
cial danger signals were believed to be
flying. This pessimism was about at
the deepest just at the midyear.
"As July wore on, there appeared to
be a change of sentiment and a grow
ing appreciation that what had been
happening was only a natural read
justment of conditions that were still
sound and excellent. In Great Britain
there are two views among economists.
The optimistic, whereof Sir George
Paish is the great exponent, minimizes
the destruction of wealth by the con-
tinuance of the war. The other, the
pessimistic school, whereof Francis W.
Hirst, who recently retired from the
editorship of the Economist, is the
chief exponent, propheses that pros
ecution of the war for only few
months more will result in catastrophe
for the whole world The minds of a
good many people in this country were
probably unduly colored by the latter
view. If we may rely upon so excell-
ent O. practical authority as the Ma
tional City bank, which in its last
circular called attention to the very
slight extent Of the dimlnution of the
gold reserves of the European nations
during the last year, there is good rea-
sons for adherng to the opinion of the
optimistic school Of economists.
Anyway, people began to feel better
during July. The advance in money
rates proved to be but temporary 9th
er danger signals did not appear to be
so positive as previously they were
regarded. Even then came some fur
ther ammunition orders, rather to the
surprise of everybody This improve
ment in feeling was reflected in the
metal markets, which is the subject of
our present discussion.
Let us start out with the premise
> that any great rise in the value of a
commodity automG tically brings about
the corrective thereof through the
stimulation of new production, and
sooner or later there must be recess
sion from every high price. That is
,, going to happen with copper and steel,
: just as it has already happened with
. zinc and antimony, but by virtue of
natural conditions it may not happen
- for long time. In other words, there
are at present some fundamental diff
. ferences in the positions of copper
= and zinc, and there are some special
! factors that are playing part in the
y lead market.
"The position of copper is still phe-
q nomenally strong. The production OF
II the miners and smelters has increased
. a good deal, but that of the refiners
" has not increased in the same proper
:. tlon and lately has been checked con-
y siderably by the diminished output OF