New-York tribune., 1916-07-10

Of the war this year. She has nothing
TO gain by continuing IL and will have
more and more to lose. Germany has
come to the crux. Whence can she eX-
pect any solution in her favor? Not
by the surrender of France. II is al
ways Just possible that the enemy may
take Verdun. Dearly as we hope the
French may hold it to the end, its local
defence. in view of the larger purposes
of the war. is not worth more than a
certain cost in lives. By raising the
bid the Germans may come nearer their
object.
But even the fall of Nerdun would
not bring one inch nearer the surren-
der of France nor relax her grip on
Germany. After the calling disadvan-
tage in artillery during the last few
months her relative gun power Will
begin to increase again from now on.
The Italians have secured an invaluable
breathing space, thanks both TO their
own tenacitv and the Russian interyen-
tion.
Every day has contributed TO build
up the resources in men and guns Of
the British army. 1t is able to strike
hard, as the last few days have proved.
Britain. like Russia. will in various
ways be very much stronger three
months hence than now, and stronger
again six months hence, and still
stronger later. Nothing Germany can
do will alter that process. The British
army has reserves enough for a four
years war or a five years war, and IN
equipment il is going 10 be second 70
none in the world. We rather think
that is going TO help in the making of
history Germany and her confederates
will soon be kicking all round against
the pricks harder the kicking the
worse the consequences for the Central
League.
SO much for the land situation. Now
add the sea situation. II we had 10
fight Germany single-handed II would
be a comparatively cheap war which
we could continue indefinitely. She
never can resume normal commerce
with the world at large before she has
conceded satisfactory terms of peace.
She cannot get out into the Atlantic
either by the Strait of Dover or by
the north passage. Austria cannot use
use either the Adriatic Sea or the
Hgean.
Turkey Throttled.
The throttle grip on Turkish mari
time commerce closes the Dardanelies'
the Gulf Of Smyrna, the Syrian Levant,
the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf. II the
war goes on the Allies with absolute
certainty can dispose Of Turkey. They
can debar the Central Empires from in
tercourse with nine-tenths Of the world.
Their trade power is even more invul-
nerable than their sea power. Not a
single inch of colonial ground through
out the world can be recovered by Ger
man force. We have heard German ef-
ficiency extolled. and within its tech
nical limits il deserves admiration; but
in combined judgment and energy Brit
ain has been too much for Germany.
We are inclined to think that peace
is nearer, not for Herr Won Bethmann-
Hollwek's reasons, but for others the
clean contrary. The German Chan
cellor thought that the war map as II
stood a few weeks ago must he taken
as the basis of negotiation. We en-
phatically reject that basis. Herr
Bethmann imagined that the war map
could only be modified in favor OF
the Central Empires. We think that
the longer the war continues the
worse it must be for the enemy IN
every way military. maritime. com
mercial. social and the more will the
war map be modified in favor of the
Allies.
Changes Before Autumn.
In at least one of the outlying the
atres, and perhaps in all of them, a
complete change OF the existing posi-
ton will be effected or insured before
the end of autumn. By that time
Germany, we believe, will be ready 70
offer terms that would have been un-
thinkable in Berlin and Vienna fort
night ago. Whether the terms will be
sufficient even then TO form the basis
of q good and lasting peace has yet
to be seen. If not, the war will go
on-and that, as we hold, could only
mean a darkening prospect for Ger
many herself and death TO both Of
Germany's partners. We begin to see
the possibility Of a nearer peace as
sailors, after long voyage, might
descry the first dim signs that prove
indeed to be not cloud, but land.