The Washington herald., 1916-05-21
Loss of Ships Hard Blow to
Export Trade, Making 1t
Harder to Maintain Credit.
Apparent Concessions to
U. S. Explained.

which we are dependent $3.50 instead of
5000. So the present rate of destruction,
instead of being two-elevenths, would be
just under one-tenth, which, though IN
convenient would not really be very
formidable. And in the second year OF
war, on the same scale of destruction,
there would be reduction Of one-ninth,
and so on. So that we could possibly
carry on for at least three years without
any renewal of our own or neutral ship
ping, and without being brought to
serious point Of want Z Even then, il the
rate of destruction of two and One-hGlE
day could be kept up, we should be q
long way from stagnation being turned
into defeat.
Drop In Rate.
But it seems obvious that the rate
will not and cannot be kept up. Note
to begin with that it has not been kept
up. We must not forget that IN July,
August and the first week in September,
we had precisely the same conditions.
The rate then dropped suddenly from
the highest on record to the lowest. l
am far from saying that we are to infer
that the present drop from the recent
high rate fOrbodes u continuance of a
low rate. But it was inconceivable that
the righ rate could continue; equally al
most incUnCeivable that what we have
just seen is not the highest rate possi-
bic. The agencies which reduced the
late last autumn-thOugh probably less
efficient than they were because attack
ing at sight gives to the U-boats oppor-
tunties of sinking ships, and lessons our
opportunities for sinking them-are still
formidable enough, and they have doubt
less been increased in numbers and in
efficiency. Those engaged in these
operations have a wider experience. and
the organization for pooling these cX-
perienceS and making the lessons of ono
field available in another has been very
greatly improved. 1t may take a month
or two to bring Germanys present equip
ment of submarines to negligible propOr-
lions Meanwhile, for the moment at
any rate, it looks as if the admiralty
uId the thing in hand"
Mr.. Pollen whose sources Of informa
ton are excellent may he correct in his
belief that the German campaign has al
ready passed its maximum Whether he
is or not will be evident to the reader
when this is read But Mr.. Pollen, and
all other naval critics in allied countries,
entirely ignore some Of the more serious
aspects of the situation, which l have
touched on in this article.
The reason why nothing that Germany
may promise the United States will be
regarded with any credence here was
summed up for mo today by an admiral
whom many regard as the greatest living
naval authority. He said:
Naval AuthOrIty's Views.
IF they promise not to attack pas
s"nger ships, they may keep their
word, but that viii not seriously af-
feet the situation and it Will not meet
Wilson's demand. II they promise not
to attack merchant ships without
warning. they will be tricking you,
for they will not give up their sub
marine campaign even to keep you
out of the war. 1t is their one chance
against us; we know it and they
know it.
such a promise might mean one of
two things 1t might mean that we
had bagged so many of their subma-
rines that another lulI in their activity
was inevitable. until a new batch
could lie prepared and new crews
trained. If this is the state of affairs,
then they will promise you to be good.
just to gain time, and Cheerfully
break their promise in three or four
months when they are ready to resume
operation. In that case, you would re-
main neutral until this new campaign
begins; that you will break off with
Germany sooner or later is inevitable.
But there is another possibility,
combined operation in the North Sea
in which the Germans, in my opinion,
will one day try their luck with Yep
pelins. submarins and warships.
prefer not to discuss the matter as a
whole. but you may point out that If
such a thing is brewing. the Germans
will want all their submarines to take
part in it, and they will require a
considerable time to gather them to-
gether and train them in the part
they are to play. If anything of that
sort is on the cards for this summer,
they may stop the merchantmen cam
paign for the time being in defer
ence, as they will say, to the wishes
of the United States"