The Washington herald., 1916-11-06
The End Of the Campaign.

IT'S Gnu Inc hepuOhcan ana DehioSielS hoiii
nees have made their closing speeches. The Re-
publican and Democratic campaign managers have
issued their closing predictions of victory. The
stage is set for 100000 voters to go to the polls
and cast their ballots. What will be their de-
cision?
The answer to this question probably will not
be given until late tomorrow night and even then
there may be doubt about the final outcome. The
indications are that the nominee who is elected
will win by a very small margin In fact, eonsid-
Grafton of all prediction indications seems to
show that the finish will be one of the most ex-
citing in history.
A glance at the States seems convincing that
Mr.. Hughes has more of the so-called certain
electoral votes than President Wilson, but when
the doubtful States taken into consideration it
seems that the winner may be elected by mar
gin small as one electoral vote. But there is
so much doubt about the doubtful States that the
deeper one studies their problems the more be-
wildered he becomes in seeking to reach con-
clusion.
Turning to the straw votes and the betting
odds, it is found that the former indicate the
election of Mr.. Wilson in the eajority of cases
and the latter indicate the election of Mr. Hughes
in practically all cases.
Probably the most complete straw vote taken
is that of the New, York Herald. In the first week
of this ballot Mr.. Hughes received SIG per cent
of the votes. Then slow but steady drift toward
President Wilson was noted. In the seventh and
last week of the ballot, Mr.. Hughes received only
48.2 per cent of the votes. The newspaper sums
up its prediction, based on this straw vote, in
these words:
"The situation rests on so delicate balance
that hairs weight may swing it in either direc-
ton"
But whatever optimism may be given support
of the President by the straw votes seems to be
eradicated by the betting odds. To estimate the
amount of money that will change hands a re-
suit of the election is next to impossible, but
idea of the vast amount wagered may be OBJ
tanned from knowledge of the fact that it is con-
servatively estimated that more than 100000
in bets have been placed in New York City alone
The story that the betting tells is that since
1888 the odds always have predicted the winner
and that in the last week of this campaign the odds
have ranged from 10 to to 10 to 7 on Mr.. Hughes
1t is trde that on October z3 number of big bets
at even money were placed in New York City, but
on that day the majority of bets made at 10
to 9 and 10 to 8 on Mr.. Hughes. However, the
fact that the favorites have won since 1888 is
long way from a guarantee that the rule will hold
in this election.
Ever since the nominations were made The
Washington Herald has pointed out the proba-
biity of close finish, calling attention to the fact
that any unexpected event of national or interna-
tional importance in the last weeks of the cam
paign could throw the result into landslide for
either of the nominees. There has been no
such event.
The threatened railroad strike was not unex-
pected, although President Wilson's handling of
it was. His action in this matter undoubtedly will
be factor of primary importance in the balloting
The sinking of the Rowanmore and Marina was
of course, unexpected, but the nation, as whole,
does not inclined as yet to attach much i'm
portance to the threatened renewal of the sub
marine controversy. Along the border there has
been quiet comparatively.
With the exception of the campaign arguments
the problem that confronts the voter now practi-
cally is the same that presented at the begin
ming Of the campaign, and the campaign talk has
brought out little that not already known
The issues that were defined by Mr.. Hughes in
the beginning of the campaign have been carried
down to today in their original form, the only
added issue being that embodied in the Presidents
treatment of the railroad question.
Mr.. Hughes sounded Americanism as his key
note in the beginning and Amercanism was the
keynote of his conclusion. The Presidents con-
cluding speeches differed in no essentials from
those delivered in the beginning of the fight The
Republican attacks concentrated on the is
sues of Mexico the tariff, and inefficient govern
ment in the beginning and in the end. The Demo-
cratic defense was based prosperity, "he has
kept out of war" and wise legislation in the be-
ginning and in the end. The campaign has been
notably lacking in surprises.
Probably this is the chief reason why it is so
difficult to predict the outcome with confidence
But to this reason must be added those contained
in the hyphen vote, the women's vote, the labor
vote and the numerous other elements which serve
to confuse.
Despite the confusion however, there are GER
tain fundamental facts which cannot be overlook
ed and which may serve accurate index to
the final result. Four years ago1 the Democratic
party gained control of the government through
a division in the ranks of the Republicans Only
partsans will dispute this fact. The Democratic
victory was won through the detection of Theo-
dore Roosevelt and the Progressves.