The Washington herald. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1906-1939, 1916-03-12

0oo0Oo in the last year of peace. do
not believe any power will repudiate Its
debts TO the United States. because our
credit will continue to be In great de-
nand, but | should-not like TO be widow
or orphan entirely dependent on interest
from war loans foated by several Of the
lprotagonists of the struggle
The coming trade war should arouse
/ more interest in America than has been
manifested, / believe. for it cannot but
affect the United States most vitality.
Both alliances are already preparing to
place prohibitive tariffs upon the goods
of their enemies when peace is signed.
The allies will take the offensive, believ-
ing Germany dependent upon her foreign
trade for the wherewithal to fight an
other war, and Germany, powerless to
stop them. is already preparing defensive
warfare. Her plans for a Central Euro
pean Zollverein, to be as near econom-
icaily self-supporting as may be and to
include all the countries now fighting on
her side, have already been drawn up.
Each group Of powers will arrange
tarins to hit the enemy. Each viii
cajole or bully as many neutrals as il
can INTO its own camp. small neutral
may have diff Guilty in keeping out Of
one camp or the other, for the choice
Will be presented 1t of being treated as
friend by the entente and an enemy
| by central Europe or vice versa, or as
an enemy by both
And America? ] do not think she
would join either group but II seems inn
probable that both groups could consent
to admit this powerful commercial rival
on friendly terms, each receiving her as
an ally because such a course would
give American trade an overwhelming ad-
vantage over that of any possible rival
In any case, whatever may happen, our
| traffic hitherto imposed simply to suit
our own interests, will be thrown on the
International bargain counter The most
confdent prediction 1 can make about
the postwar period is that American
politics will center about the problem of
joining one or both of the great com
mercial groups, and about the tariff
terms which Europe will try to impose
upon US
America Not to BE Involved.
VIII America be drawn into the war?
l do not think So At any rate. there
will be no serious danger until the later
stages. At present, Germany will yield
as much as she has to on the subma-
rlne issue to keep out Of war, in my
opinion, though | am not in a position
to judge with authority about what is
now going on in Berlin. Later in the
war, when its bitterness increases with
cult or impossible for the German au-
thorites TO respect any agreements they
may make now concerning the use Of
torpedOes. About the allied blockade
there will be harsh words used on both
sides of the Atlantic, but that America
would fight on such an issue is incredible
to me, and know that nothing but an
ultimatum which the allies knew meant
| business, and perhaps not even that,
would result in the substantial abandon
ment of the blockade which Is what
President Wilson demanded. in effect, in
his latest note.
Many Europeans seriously believe that
Germany. II h"r fleet is intsCt after the
war. may attack the United States. de-
stroy our navy. land a division or two.
loot New York and other coast cities
Of billions. and after raising an enormous
indemnity to pay the cost of the Euro
pean war, go home again before America
| can train an army in the interior
H. as / believe, Germany's navy will be
minus quantity at the end of the war.
this scheme will be impracticable. In
some ways II is not quite so widowed
| as it looks, for intense bitterness against
America does exist in Germany, and as
Stunning that the American navy We're an
initiated the military aspects such as
the seizure of New York. are feasible
heard military group in London laugh
ing some months ago over a scare inva-
sion story in an American magazine. and
| a retired general remarked: The only
| criticism have is that this fellow gives
| the Germans five army corps on Long
Island TO take New York, and it could
| be done with one division"
A little preparedness would. Of course
make an invasion impossible. but il the
war ends as I believe. America has moth
| ing to fear were she as defenseless as
China. for the entente powers would not
| permit Germany to recoup herself and
regain her dominant position at the ex-
pense of the United States. And to talk
of an attack on America by one or more
of the entente powers is sheer panic
| mongering.