Daily capital journal. (Salem, Oregon) 1903-1919, 1916-08-18
Stock Market Contends
With Many Difficulties

New York, Aug. 16.-The stock
market is contending with a series OF
perplexities such as the war, labor
troubles, poor crop reports, foreign
liquidation, initiation in commodities,
the Mexican situation, the presidential
campaign, etc. The volume of bust
ness has been more or less restricted
by the large number of vacation alb
sentees, but the general undertone has
been confident and is improving in
spite of the conflicting tendencies re-
ferred to.
The crop situation is anything but
satisfactory. The Governments s Aug
ust report for wheat indicated yield
of only 654,000,000 bushels, compared
with 1,Ol1, 100000 bushels last year,
and 72S,O00,00O bushels for the five
year average ending 1914. This is a
decrease of 1OO,OOO,00O bushels, com
pared with the July report. For corn,
the outlook is simply fair, the Govern
ment report indicating crop of
2,777 600, 900 bushels, compared with
3,055, 900, 900 bushels last year and
2, 1882, 100000 bushels for the five-year
average. Oats figure at l,274 10000
bushels, against 1,540,0OO,0OO bushels a
year ago. Here is decrease of nearly
$50 900, 900 bushels in the three princi-
pal grain crops. SO far as money
value goes, the loss of quantity in
wheat is being very largely offset by
the rise in values. The same is true of
corn, but not of oats, which are lower
in price than a year ago. 1t is just as
well to remember that real prosperity
consists in abundance and not in high
prices, which invariably come out of
the public and limit expenditures in
other directions. Dear bread will not
alleviate social unrest On the o.her
hand, the farming classes, who are still
the backbone of the country, will not
suffer financially for the reason that
they will get almost as much in money
and in some instances more for this
years crops than for last years yield,
of which a considerable surplus still
remains and which will be benefited
by higher prices. Wheat has already
advanced more than 80 cents per bushel
since June, and might have gone still
higher had it not been for the more
favorable weather reports of last week.
The harvest is close at hand, and as
August is frequently a month of de-
terioration the next two or three
weeks may have an important bearing
upon the national yield. Suffice it to
say that in the long run, neither the
United States nor the world at large
can profit from a short crop, especially
when the yield is curtailed by war in
other countries. The cotton crop also
promises to be light, not much over
10000, 900 bales and but little in ex-
cess of last year. The present price is,
however, about cents above a year
ago, and with consumption running
perilously close to production growers
are reasonably certain of good profits.
An interesting feature in our foreign
commerce returns for the last fiscal
year was that out of total merchandise
exports of $4,353, 100000, more than
half, or $2,65S, 900, 900 consisted of
manufactures which doubled their
amount in the past twelve months. OF
foodstuffs our exports were $976,000,-
600, compared with 1861 100000 last
year, while of raw materials our ex-
ports were $5S6,000,O00, against $5l0,.
100000 year ago. This increase in
exports of manufactures is extremely
significant. For some years the ten
dency in this country has been de-
cidedly towards larger exports of man
ufactures and smaller exports of food
stuffs; this being a natural sequence
of our growing population and indus
trial development. The extraordinary
expansion in manufactured exports is
mainly due to the war and must be
considered as quite abnormal. Never
theless, there is no doubt that we shall
retain much of this newly gained for
eign trade, provided our costs can be
made to meet those of Great Britain
and Germany, who will strenuously en-
deavor to recover all and more than
they have lost. Our chief handicap
will be high priced commodities and
labor troubles, in both of which there