New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-01-02
Price Would Soar If Ger
mans Reached Nile,
Says Expert.
BRITISH COMPLAIN
OF SPECULATION
Planters Face Big Year II They
Restrict Acreage of
Planting.
tFrpm The Tribune bureau

aided drive into Egypt the result will
be the most spectacular price for cot
ton that this country has ever seen,
according TO well informed cotton |
expert, who has been studying tho
situation. This was the reply to tho re-
port circulated by certain southern
Senators and Representatives seeking
TO stir up trouble over the British cot
ton contrabsnd order. English mills,
the report said. now had enough cotton
TO last them for two years.
These agitators argue on the assump-
ton that when peace comes instead Of
cotton rising in price the bottom will
drop out, as for two years there will be
no English demand and the rest OF Eu-
rope will have TO scrape along because
Of the lack Of the wherewithal to buy
cotton goods.
The idea OF the agitators Is TO work
up 3 sentiment TO .orce England TO
permit this country 10 ship cotton TO
Germany now. while the high price
Germany 10 willing to pay can be OBJ
tanned.
In answer to the statement that Eng
lish mills had two years supply Of
cotton on hand, attention was called here
to-day t. the correspondents Of Felix
Rose in THE Liverpool Post" recently.
Mr.. Rose declared that the price of cot
ton was far too high, and urged q
combination Of British buyers to curb
what he called the bull speculation in
America. lie urged that II the price
could be reduced but l penny, or 2
cents, II would result In saving of
$4,000, 900 TO British mills, since they
must buy two million more bales before
the END Of the present season
Complains Of Speculation.
As Mr.. Rose complains Of American
speculation and asserts that the price
of cotton is too high, II would scarcely
be suspected that he knew OF any huge
supply held by British mills.
In reply to Mr.. Rose a letter from
Charles Dukinfeld, of Liverpool, was
also published in the Post" Mr..
Dukinfeld pointed out the strong po-
sition Of the American holders of cot
ton and doubted the advantage to be
o ny
chases Of futures, as suggested by Mr..
Rose. After summarizing the advance
in freight rates TO almost two cents
pound, the heavy cost Of exchange and
Insurance, and other reasons why the
price of cotton Is Is cents in Liverpool
as against l3 cents In this country, Mr..
Dukinfeld dwelt on the great storage
accommodations In the South and the
cheap money TO be had in this country.
lie then said:
an addition to the above facts, IL Is
generally admitted in the South that
German interests bought very large
quantities OF actual cotton before the
advance early in the season and stored
il there, their idea being that when
peace was concluded they would not be
rushed into paying fancy prices to re-
plenish the supplies which they will
then be badly in need Of.
British Demand to Be Normal.
"As regards consumption, | think
Lancashire will spin all that she is
capable Of turning out, hsv-
Ing now to supply the wants OF GUS
toners who have hitherto bought on
the Continent. The shortage Of labor
will doubtless affect the outturn TO
some ext mt, but this may be Offset by
the large increase in use of coarse
counts, which means q much greater
consumption Of actual bales, and, there
fore, think it quite probable the con-
sumption of Great Britain may approx
mate nearly the figures of last seasan."
The Importance OF the German drive
on Egypt, II one should be made, as
pointed out by The Tribune's informant,
is partly in the fact that the British
have actually considerable cotton In |
storage in that country. Should the |
German drive be successful this cotton |
must be destroyed to avoid It's falling
into their hands. Aside from this, and |
more important, is the fact that Egyp- |
tian cotton must be planted in Febru-
airy, or about the same time as in |
Southern Georgia, Alabama and Mis-
sssippi. The entire cotton belt Of |
Egypt lies along the Nile. Occupation |
of that territory by the Germans would |
mean there would be no crop next year. |
The closing Of the Suez Canal, he
pointed out, won Id force ell Indian cot.
ton to be brought around the Cape Of |
freight charge, and, in consequence, q
higher price for cotton.
Southern Situation Hopeful.
From the situation abroad" he con-
tinued, at can be taken for granted
that the price Of cotton will not only
continue high this year. but will be
high next year. Now we come to the
situation at home, which depends en-
tirely on the Southern cotton planters.
II they continue to restrict their acre
age, keeping 1t down to what they
planted this year, or perhaps a little
bit less, they will make a lot OF money
next year; but if they decide that each
man must raise every pound he can, as
Is usually the case when the price Is
IL cents or higher around cotton plant
ing time, cotton, of course, will be O
drug on the market when they begin
hauling their staple to town next Au-
gust and September.
IL am hoping ior a small acreage for
q number Of reasons. The Importance
Of small planting has been hammered
in pretty thoroughly, for one thing,
while almost equally important this
year is the high price Of seed. Cotton
: eed Is selling all over the South at
s45 ton, and frequently as high as $50
a ton.
AT the latter price It represents %
cents bale on cotton. With cotton at
~ cents, this makes a total of SS5 a
bale which the farmers are receiving.
The tendency when the price Of seed Is
so high, virtually higher than 1t has
ever been before, Is 20 sell down to the
very narrowest margin for planting
next wear, and that il what | under
stand most Of the farmers are doing.
"Nanv of the planters in tho hard
times last year also sold some of their
r.,Iaa apd ~ the nre-QuI NIGH prtcps |