The mirror., 1916-12-21

On the other hand we must remember
that before the war broke out the United
States was indebted to Europe, and more
particularly to Great Britain, to far great
er extent than Europe is now temporarily
indebted to her. Thus all the large bond
issues of the railroads and transportation
companies, to say nothing of the huge
southern public service corporations, were
Aoated and absorbed in Europe. The bulk
of the money invested in the huge sky
scrapers in lower New York, within easy
reach of moderD guns from Sandy Hook,
was raised abroad. This fact explains the
cause of the unprecedented phenomenon
which occurred during the latter part of
August 1914, when the New York Stock
Exchange had to actually 60 out OF business
and close its doors. So soon as the extent
of the world wide conAagration was realized
in Europe, she began to unload these United
States securities onto Wall Street, realizing,
as many Americans who were abroad at the
time realized so grievously, that cash was a
much more necessary commodity than
stocks and bonds. The avalanche of stocks
and bonds poured into this country was so
stupendous that it could not be absorbed
and digested, with the result that prices
dropped SO rapidly that the bottom went
completely out of the market, numbers of
failures occurred and within ten days or two
weeks the Stock Exchange closed and every
body in New York, including my own in
significant self, was stunned by the general
business depression. In time however the
exchange was able to reopen its doors, by
reason of the unprecedented prosperity in
this country caused by the huge belligerent
demand for war supplies, which has gradual
ly been restoring the balance of International
trade, which was so ruthlessly disturbed at
first.
Financial writers at the present time, all
over the country, are specializing as to what
position the trade of the United States will
be in after the war. Some seem to think
that for years to come Europe will of neces-
sity be compelled to rely on tie United
States for her manufactured goods, by rea-
son of the devastation of their own countries
and the disorganization of their manufac-
lures. On the other hand we read of stu
pendous plans being made, not only by the
Entente but by the Central Powers, for the
controlling of the worlds trade after the
war. The exact economic effect on United
States trade and prosperity of the cessation
of hostilities in Europe it is impossible to
accurately foresee. One effect however will
be large reduction in her import trade
from Germany because her inability to i'm
port such commodities as dyes and toys,
has driven her into manufacturing these
articles at home and the chances are that
they will continue to do so after the war.
After all the relative financial positions
of wall Street and Lombard Street after the
holocaust in Europe has subsidized, will de-
pend on the relative control of the world s
finances or money power which they re-
spectively possess and as the combined
wealth of Europe, by reason of its age and
earlier start under the capitalistic system, is
palpably much greater then that of the
United States, and Great Britain, in her
unique role of 6nancier and backer, not
only of the Entente Allies but also of her
own dependencies beyond the seas, still re-
tains her dominating position in the worlds
trade, it is difficult to believe that her con-
dition will become so utterly exhausted by
the war, even if it should last for much
longer period than is anticipated, that she
would be displaced by the United States.
Time, the arbiter of the destinies of nations
as we'll as of individuals, alone will tell.