The Birmingham age-herald. [volume] (Birmingham, Ala.) 1902-1950, 1916-08-25
Germany Did Not Look for
War to Last Over Three
Months
ENGLAND HAS NOT
LOST FOREIGN TRADE
Worlds Greatest Struggle for In
ternatiOnal Trade to Come at
Close of European War
By HOLLAND

New York, August 24-(Special.) RE
ports which appear to be we'll founded
reach New York, particularly from
Great Britain and Germany, which con-
firm the impression that already these
two nations are preparing for the
great battle of commerce and inter-
national trade which will begin soon
after the close of the European war.
One of the reports, which is regarded
as well founded, intimates that Ger
many is preparing to meet the world
demand for dyestuffs and SO to meet it
that other nations cannot compete with
her in prices.
Not yet has there been any official
confirmation of the loss to Germany of
her overseas trade occasioned by the
war. Some have said that it already
amounts to s4,000,O0o,0O0. 1t is an indi-
rect loss, since it is not estimated in the
cost to Germany of maintaining the
war. Before the war began Germany
had an overseas trade in many things
second only to that of Great Britain
The slow, cautious and yet thoroughly
efficient manner with which this trade
was built up led many of the leading
American financiers in July, 1914, to
say, only few days before the war
began, that the trouble would be
averted, since Germany could not af-
ford to lose the trade she had for many
years SO patiently been building up.
That was the view taken by the late
Norman B. Ream, who as one of the
leading executive forces of the United
States Steel corporation, had accurate
knowledge of the manner in which
Germany was competing, often success
fully, with the American steel indus
tries for foreign markets, especially in
the far east and Africa, and even in
Australia.
1t is now known that Germany did
not look for a prolonged war. The
belief of her military authorities was
that the war would be ended in two
months-three at the most-so that
there would be no Danger to her for.
eign trade.
ENGLAND'S TRADE
England, on the other hand, has main
tanned an export trade which is re-
garded as astonishing. SO many of
her industrial plants have been occu-
pied with the manufacture OF munitions
of war that it was deemed unlikely her
could maintain much, il
any, foreign trade. They have done
so and the latest reports from London
indicate that this foreign trade is in
creasing. England is likely to sell more
to other nations in the year 1916 than
she did in 1915.
Nevertheless, there is world trade to
be secured and maintained and the bel
ligerent nations-some of them at
least-will find it vital to secure trade
of that kind in order to build up THEN
industries and increase their income.
In this contest for world trade, the
British government itself is to take the
leading part. Our financial authori-
ties know that Great Britain will do
as Germany has done and will again do
after the war is ended-stimulate world
trade by granting subsidies and by
other expedients which in the past nave |
been found effective. furthermore II
Is known both in Germany and Great |
Britain that public sentiment in the
United States is not yet prepared, II 1t
ever will be, to stimulate foreign trade
and to protect 1t by means OF subsidies.
Nevertheless it was speedily observed
In London that American public opinion
has changed so that now there is no dis
position to criticise the proposition that
American industries and their managers
may make common trade agreements,
form combinations, create joint selling
the foreign trade.
Two years ago no one would have ven
tured to predict that before the end of
President Wilson's first administration
public sentiment would have become so
evident as to justify a Congress commit
tee in recommending modification of or
amendment to the antitrust law which
would permit industrial leaders engaged
in foreign trade to form combinations or
adopt other expedients of the kind, both
ard Germany have encouraged
whereby foreign markets can be Sc
cured and maintained.
While there appears to be small oppor-
tunity for the government-excepting
possibly in a moral way-to offer aid or
to furnish influences whereby our for.
eign trade may be maintained and in
nevertheless those who are IA
miliar with conditions as they now are
and know what is contemplated by lead
ing business interests are certain that
when the great world trade war begins
it will be discovered that Americans have
had time fairly we'll to prepare for 1t. !
Among other preparations are plans of
magnitude now under way for financing
the needs of other nations. 1t is now
established that trade follows the loan.
Neither Great Britain nor Germany will
be in position for some years to furnish