Tulsa daily world. [volume] (Tulsa, Indian Territory [Okla.]) 1905-1919, 1916-10-22
DECLARES BRITAIN
WILL WIN IN YEAR
Lloyd George Predicts That
Struggle Is Reaching
Last Rows.
OTHERS DISAGREE
[ERs DISAGREE
Hilaire Belloc and Colonel
Repington Say 1918 Will
See the End.
By JOHN l.. BALDERSTON.
(CopyriGht 1916 by The Mcclure Newspaper
syndicate

LONDON. oct S.-DaVid Lloyd |
George. the live wire OF the British
government, has entered the ranks OF
war prophets. Just d year ago, at the
time of the German conquest or Serp'a
and OF the blackcst pcsslnisn in Eng
lund he turotold the course OF TINS
years campaign correctly, ana added
that the decisive blow would bc struck
and the war would "approach con-
cusion" In the spring, or more prob
ably the summer. OF 1914" Mr.. Lloyd /
George in making this prediction al
lied himself with the late Lord Kitten
encr, whose statement to the house or
lords at the very beginning that the
war would last three years Will appar-
emily be fulfilled.
Lloyd Georges analysis of the situd-
ton WAS not made for puDNcatiol,
and has not hitherto been known, but
was revealed by stephen Pichon,
former minister of foreign affairs IN
France, in the course of glowing
tribute to the military and Industrial
achievements of Great Britain. Il re-
call 4 conN ersation I had at This time
last year with Mr.. Lloyd George AT
country house, said NJ. Pichon. HE
envisaged without prejudice or illu-
sion the military situation, estimated
the probable duration OF the war, fore
saw that 1t would evolve slowly at the
cost of immense sacrifices, and that II
would only be in 1917, in the spring,
or more probably the sumner, thdt
1t would approach II conclusion. ftls
calculation Was based on comparl-
son of the respective bclligerent forces,
the allies insuffiCiency OF necessary
material, the time 1t would take to
produce or procure It, the German
successes over the Russians in Poland.
the repairing of tactical mistakes. the
building up of the British army ana
so forth.
Reasoning Clear.
His reasoning was, as usual, clear
and vigorous, supported by facts put
forward in the figuratire speech that
is customary with him, and conVinc-
ing DIS a syllogism. The event has in
any case completely justified every
thing he said
I'VE are now years distance from
that time. As Mr.. Lloyd George HIM
self declared few weeks ago, we are
today on an eminence from which we
can distinguish in the misty distance
the goal to be reached; there are still
many valleys to cross, many crests 10
be carried by assault; but what Is now
peninG gives us absolute conll-
OGnce as 10 what lS Bollls W uippti'
That the allies WIN win, no one, IN
short, now regards as doubtful. Nor
is IT less so to the Germans, whose
eyes are opening little by little to the
light. and the haushtiest and most OBJ
stinate of whom can hardly hence
forth have any false notions of their
coming fate
NJ. Pichon frankly admitted that
France and Russia could not have
stood against Germany without the
help of England, saying, Save for
England's Intervention, the German
enterprises would have succeeded the
small states would have disappeared
politically from the map of Europe,
some of them would have disappeared
even geographically; France and Rus
sia would not have been able to main
tain successfully an unequal struSgie
against military power formidably
weaponed and equipped organized
during the course of half a century
for this very war, and shrinking from
no -atrocity in order to realize its de-
signs OF death and destruction.
Tide Has Changed.
"Decisive events have happened
since that day on which | had the con-
Vcrsation that | have recalled with the
present war minister of the British
government The Russian victories
on the eastern front the Italian vic
tories on the Austrian front, Ru-
mania's Intervention. the victories of
the British and French armies on the
Sommc-ths time 1t is not a matter Of
fleetine successes without serious
consequences as in the sporadic Of
fenSives of last year, nor Of attacks
directed against an lnfinltesimal part
of the ,nemy's lines it is the first
stage in the execution of methodic
plan, drawn up in concert among our
army chiefs, and being resclutely car
ried out from the North sea to the
Carpathians. and from the Belgian
front to the Polish front-a plan
which cannot fail to succeed because
it is backed up by an overwhelming
superiority in means of action.
"For its undertaking it was neces-
sary to have such effective guns, en-
gnes of war and munitions that the
resistance of the Prussian general staff
would be powerless against them; that
was the task to which Great Britain
particularly applied herself, and 1t Is
especially from this point OF view tha'
she has the right to claim capita
share in the decisive work that is be-
ing accomplished"
1t is interesting to compare with the
predictions made by Mr.. Lloyd George
and NJ Pichon as to the duration OF
the war the opinions of other Englis!
experts German authorities, so far n!
on this engrossing subject at present
although nearly year ago Majo
Mohrant, the distinguished critic o
the Tageblatt, was credited with thu
remark that it would end this winter
Hilare Belloc. the critic of 'Lant
and Watcr," thinks the struggle viii
last into 1918.
Colonel Repington, military CORES
pondent Of the London Times and thu
most famous authority in England
says at will end when Germany !
crushed-191S, 1919 or 1920"
NJ. Marcel Hutin. the best Informed
of the Paris critics, confidently ex
poets the defeat OF Germany befor
the end Of the fourth campaign, tha
Is, before November. 1917.
The odds offered by Lloyd's ol
peace indicate that financial and busi
ness circles are sure there will b
peace this winter. but do not expec
the war to last into 1918. The insur
ance rates of this famous agency wor
., out to odds-of five TO one offered tina
there will be no peace before March
1917. two to one against peace befor
June |, and two to one that peace wi
L.