The Bridgeport evening farmer., 1916-10-31
HENRY CLEWS
 WEEKLY LETTER

tudes are in prospect. Whear, cotton, pig iron, sugar, wool, chemicals ana nearly all commodities are on the up ward path, war being almost the soie impetus. Wars demands are apso- lutely unsuitable. Men, munitions ana money must be had regardless Of cost; waste is going on upon vaster scale pcale than ever, and supplies or all necessities are becoming more ana more depleted. While such forces are at work. high prices are ihevitable' and no one can predict where they will end. Possibly, if not ply. they will continue advancing untii consumption is checked or production is increased. The only certainty IS that as long as war lasts, no PerI"a
 cent decline can be anticipated. There are some who believe tnaI the war will end as suddenly as it began; but a more reasonable vleW IS lha' peace will come only as result or eA- haustion, something not yet Tn sisn'' Recent German successes in RoumaIila may tend to 1engthen tue war; pe- cause they stimulate German conn- dence and stiffen British stupporn- ness. Winter is rapidly approaching and active campaigning must soon cease. Both sides will. of course make strenuous preparations Tor re- sumption next spring, possibly develop ing more desperate fighting then than anything yet experienced. The oniy conclusion at present attainable IS that the war will continue for some months to come. and with it a further imitation of prices. Even with truce' a full year might be required berore a treaty of peace could be completed ana signed, during which period the nfeat armies would be obliged to re- main in readiness for a possible re- newal of hostilities. Unfortunatel5 weary months of strife and destruc- ton are still ahead. In line with these expectations Great Britain has just arranged for another loan or SsOO,0OO,O 900, making $800,000,OOO to that country since the war began. This loan, the proceeds of which will undoubtedly be spent in the United States, seems to have been placed be- fore the funds were strictly needed, wth a view of checking the inordinate influx of gold and consequent injuri- ous imitation. Since the war we have received $S27,O00,000 net in gold, chiefly on British account. This has been a powerful factor in creating easy money on this side and has had much to do with stimulating credit expansion. To some extent, the new Federal reserve system through its elasticity aided fnfation. So, too, did the increased value of stocks used as collateral. Bankers here fully realize the incipient danger of excessive ex- pansion and are acting accordingly. Bank reserves have been materially reduced lately, the total excess re- serves in New York a week ago being down to about $6,000,000, compared with 8S,000,000 a year ago. The new British loan will impose tenn porary check upon cheap money, but Great Britain will eventually be obliged to pay her bills in gold, se- curities, commodities or service of some kind. Her gold we do not want; her holdings, of American securities are becoming much reduced, and war hitherto has checked her exports of manufactured products. In the latter respect, however, Britain Is making marvellous recovery, and today with only half the labor thatNas employed before the war the experts of the United Kingdom were almost equal to the volume of 1914 In September British exports were f43,000,000, an increase of f1,00O,0O0 over last year, while imports were f77,00o,000, an in- crease of f7,00O,000. The <nearer Great Britain comes to normalizing her foreign trade, the more easily will she finance the war. Meanwhile this country is steadily strengthening It's financial position at home and abroad. Our banking power and prestige have enlarged enormously, while all of the belligerents have in these respects lost materially. Even the primacy of Lon- don is temporarily overshadowed, and Great Britain, which for generations ! has been the greatest trader, the greatest carrier and the greatest banker in the world, is obliged to see her pre-eminence in these spheres inn paired. In time she will doubtless re- cover from hef losses, and even ex- ceed former standing in these re- spects, but the United States has made very substantial gains. on these lines, and is practically sure of being a good second, with Great Britain's lead con- 1 stantly diminishing to the United 1 Rtetes.
 This market has shown further son. ! sationa1 advances in both commodi- {! ties and securities. Wheat and cot ton have both touched extraordinary ] levels, and though reactions oc- :, cured, the outlook for a continuation
 of high prices is unchanged. The principal minerals show marked ! strength, and the iron trade continues unchecked in it's headlong prosperity
 Steel shares continue making fabulous earnings. Shipping engaged in for eign trade is doing likewise. and many
 an old vessel has lately sold for ter to IS times it's original value. This country is building ships with fever ish energy. Industrial and commer-
 cfal activities are at high water mark
 Bank clearings last week were about
 40 per cent. larger than a year ago
 when returns were breaking records
 Railroad tafflc is very heavy, earn fngs showing increases of fully 10 pel cent. and over compared with year ago. November dividend and interest
 payments will exceed $154, 900, 900
 which is about s10,o00,o ahead oi the previous year, There is an active
 demand for all desirable investment. and good bonds are readily absorbed
 Attention is now being turned to de- sirable preferred stocks which have been somewhat neglected owing to the ] enormous earnings of leading indus Hr1ais 9neaaie4fon in tIae 1atfaF-aef.