The Owosso times. (Owosso, Mich.) 1897-1926, 1916-09-08
PREDICTION FOR
HUGHES BASED ON
1914 ELECTIONS
IF COUNTRY VOTES FOR PRES.
IOENT AS IT CID FOR CON-
GRESS THEN HUGHES ELEc.
TiON rs CERTAIN.

E.,
today gave out the following state
ment at its Washington headquarters:
IF the country votes at the Presi.
Dental election this year as it voted at
the congressional election of 1914,
Hughes will carry California, Colorado,
Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho. Illinois.
Iowa, Massachusetts,. Michigan, Min
nrsota. Nevada, New Hampshire, New
Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North
Dakota. Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode
Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont,
Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin
and Wyoming.
'These states have 2S6 votes in the
electoral college, majority of which
is only 266.
''ln each of these states, two years
ago, the Republican congressional tick
ct received a clear plurality of votes.
In these states combined the Republi-
can candidates for congress received
4,075, 1877 votes, while the Democratic
candidates for congress received only
3, 1886 notes.-the total Republican
plurality being 942, $50.
ORGANIZED PROGRESSIVE CAMPAIGN
I'm each of these states. in 1914, there
was an organized Progressive campaign
except in Nevada. North Dakota,
Utah and Wisconsin, although in Utah
there was a Fusion ticket running in
opposion to the Republicans. The
total Progressive vote in these states
was 746, ,34l; and the combined Repub-
lican- Progressive plurality over the
Democrats was 1858, $50.
Two years ago there were FIVE
states-Indiana, Kansas, Maine. Ne
braska and Ohio-which are fairly to
be classed as normally Republican but
ticket received plurality of votes
ranging from beggarly 365 in Maine
to an impressive 42,752 in Indiana.
But the Progressive vote in each of
these five states was far in excess of
the difference between the Republican
and Democratic totals, and ranged
from 3,11l in Nebraska to 90,040 in
Indiana. In Kansas the Progressive
vote in 1914 amounted to 74,441; in
Ohio it was 47,9S1; and in Maine it
was II 9S5.
These five states will cast SO votes
in the electoral college. How will they
vote this year,
Hopeful Democratic statisticiaus
estimate the division of the former
Progressive vote upon different pro.
portions-in each instance, however,
giving the long end of 1t to the Repub.
licans and in no instance claiming that
more than 80 per cent of the Bull Moose
will support Wilson. Upon this ex'
treme hypothesis, let us examine the
vote of the five states where Demo-
cratic plurality was found in the con-
gressional elections of 1914
THE VOTE IN INDIANA.
"The Republican vote of Indiana in
1914 was 233, 40, the Progressives cast
ing 90,040 and the Democrats 275,S9
Dividing the Bull Moose strength on
the basis of 70 and 30 per cent, respec.
lively, to the Republicans and the
Democrats, the vote of Indiana this
year should be: Republican, 296, 1852;
Democratic, 3O2,9 The margin Is
too small for comfort on either side;
and Indiana must remain as fighting
territory until the votes are counted.
The ProSressives-a 1t is said, by
Democratic funds-are maintaining an
organization in that state: but compe.
tent observers believe that from S5 to
80 per cent of the Moose will vote for
Hughes and that the number who will
support Wilson are negligible. Upon
this basis, Indiaga should go for Hughes
and Fairbanks by nearly 10000.
THE 20 30 division applied to Kan
sas would give that state to the Re.
publicaus by the following figures;
Republican, 24O,215; Democratic, 21s.-
1862
I'm Maine the result would be: Re-
publican, 7s,SsS; Democratic, 66,O7l.
In Nebraska the figures would show:
Republican, l13,376; Democratic, 49,
$780, This is another hair.line Of dem.
onstration-but there is no Bull Moose
ticket in Nebraska this year; and while
the contest will be hard one. the
the state.
THE same division of the Progress
sive vote in Ohio. would produce fig.
ures for 1915 in this wise: Republicans,
1913; Democratic, 49S, 1858.
It is, therefore, a fair assumption
Continued on page four,)