The Washington herald., 1916-04-16
NEW GERMAN TERMS REFLECT
BLOWS RECEIVED AT VERDUN

try's abs5iute Independence: this is to
be enforced by an absolute embargo by
the allied navies on German and Aus
trian commerce untf1 the Belgian claims
are met
.'4. The cession to France of those
parts Of Lorraine and Alsace In which
the French population predominates.
% The return OF German colonies, ex-
cepting Tsingtau.
IS. The partition of Persia Between
Russia and Britain. and recognition OF
a British sphere of influence In Meso-
potamia and French sphere In Asia
Minor. in return -or a possible recogni-
ton of German sphere OF influence in
other parts OF the Ottoman empire.
z. The cession by Austria TO Italy of
the Trentino and Trieste"
Russia May Cause Change.
So far as can learn those terms STD
represent the position Of the -most con-
eiliatory British, French and italian diplo-
mats. but I should not like TO guarantee
that their parliaments at the present mo-
ment would ratify so mild peace. But
there Is one important change In the sit
uation which must radically alter those
terms, and that Is the revival OF the MILL
tary power Of Russia.
II must have been apparent 20 readers
of the above terms, though I was re-
qnested not to call attention to the fact
at the time. that they presupposed the
military defeat of Russia. Russia got
nothing at all. excepting part of Persia
which she occupied before the war, and
she lost Poland. This was Justified, last
winter. by the general belief. In the west
that Russia would be unable to carry out
successful general offensive on any
front before the end OF the war. The
loss of practically all her regular army
and the almost hopeless task OF rearma-
ment In the face OF the prevailing politi-
cal corruption made It seem likely that a
successful defensive for the rest OF the
war was all Russia could hope for.
But the genius OF Grand Duke Nicholas
or of his chief OF staff. General Judenitch,
has changed all that. The capture of
much of Armenia, with greater con-
quests in Turkey in prospect. must mean,
II those regions are held, Russian control
after the war. and ConstantinopIe IT.
self, as Foreign Minister Sazonof not
obscurely limited the other day. must
pass into the cars hands before he
sheathes his sword.
The difficulties which this attitude of
Russia may give rise to need not be
elaborated. 1t is sufficient to point out
that the word Russia is a conclusive an
swer to reports about Turkey making a
separate peace with the entente and
ejecting her German masters, England
and France would like nothing better. and
a peace could doubtless be arranged In
a few weeks. for Turkey Is in desperate
straits. II 1t were not for Russia's de-
mand for Constantinople. Turkey will
never surrender her famous capital un-
til actual anarchy comes upon the coun-
try. or until 1t is taken from her by
force.
So far as the present issues between
central Europe and the quadruple
entente can be expressed at all in
terms of diplomacy. the world in the
last three months has moved some
distance toward peace. but the dis
tance still to be traversed before the
goal Is reached Is enormous, and I
should not be surprised IL peace were
eventually made following popular up.
risings which swept away the diplo-
matte machinery. as at present consti-
tuted, of the central powers Last
January. there appeared to be hve
insoluble obstacles in the way of an
agreement They were the future of
Poland, the future of Belgium, the
future OF Turkey in Asia, the Mace
DOMAIN muddle. and the problem of the
Adriatic. Two of those tangles- are
no longer insoluble, II my information
that Germany is willing to abandon
her aims IN connection with Turkey
and Belgium Is correct. And II Ger
many comes to such a pass that she
must give over Asia Minor, she may
have no qualms in throwing over her
protege Bulgaria, useful only as a
gateway to the East. Bulgaria, thus
abandoned. would be despoiIed of her
new conquests and Serbia rehabilitst-
ed. This analysis of the situation
future Of Poland and the Adriatic Is
at present beyond hope of settlement
Germany wants Poland set up as a
semi-independent state, under her mil
itary control. because the posse ssion
BY the Teutons of the fortified river
lines Of the Bug and vistula, under
conditions of modern warfare, would
make Germany practically impreg-
nable against attack by Russia. This
Is nightmare to the entente, for IL
would mean that Germany in the fu-
ture could attack France or England.
or both, with no fear of Russia. and
accordingiy the entente ls anxious
either for Russia to drive the Germans
out Of Poland or for Poland to be
made q buffer state and neutralixed.
Few military men think Russia is
capable of ejecting the Austro-oe--
mans by force of arms. The strong
reeling Dy both SIDES that the future
OF the world. in the next great war,
may depend upon the fate of Poland
after this drawn war makes the Polish
problem the most difficult Of all
ProbIem of Adriatic.
The problem Of the Adriatio Is involved
IN the fats Of Trieste and the pininsula
Of Istr1A including the Austrian naval
base Of Pols- which Italy demands. Aus
trfa woaid make territorial concessions
to Italy, but IN net willing to admit Itai-
Ian naval supremacy In the Adriatic,
which would follow any oesHons on the
eastern shore. Prussia could doubtless
coercs her ally into giving UP Trieste.
but Germany regards the Adriatic prob
lem as her own. on the theory that VI
enna 10 q vassal of Berlin.
At the commencement of this article II
was said that the war had entered upon
q new stage with the realization of the
German people that the best they can
hope for lis a draw that the German
armies are not invincibie. This fact does
not necessarily mean, as II is taken TO
mean. that Germany is on her last legs.
She Is wobbling now, tired and disgusted
that she cannot obtain victory. As soon
as she realizes that she cannot obtain
peace at present on any terms short of
humiliation, she may catch her second
wind and fight dogged defensive battle
In the hope Of firing her enemies out