Evening star., 1916-08-15
HUGHES EXPECTED
TO CARRY MONTANA
Drift of Political Sentiment
Seems to Promise Him
Electoral Vote.
REELECTION OF STEWART
AS GOVERNOR LIKELY
Senatorship in Doubt, and May Be
Determined by Presidential
Results.
BY N. o. MESSENGER.

Drift OF political sentiment m
Montana at this time appears to
indicate the electoral vote going
to Hughes to possible reelection
of the democratic governor and
state officials, with the United
States senatorship in doubt, the
outcome of that contest depend
ing much upon the volume of the
presidential vote.
Before this. Montana has split her
vote on the presidential and the state
tickets. In 1908 the republicans carried
the presidency by a plurality of 3,007
and the democrats the governorship by
plurality of 1880. In 1912 the combined
Taft and Roosevelt vote was 4O,s6s
against Wilson's 27,941.
Conditions Are Changed.
There are new elements this year,
however, which render dependence
upon form sheets unsafe and compel
consideration of the changed conditions
The November vote will be immensely
augmented by the rapidly increasing
population of the past four years and
the accession of womens votes to be
cast for the presidency for the first
time.
The new blood in the state is shown
by the heavy to tai of immigration.
According to figures furnished by the
state statistician. today, it is estimated
that the population has increased since
1912 over 100000. He estimates that this
will mean new vote of 100000 in No
vember.
OF this new population 10000 has
gone into the eastern agricultural sec
ton of the state. Republicans claim
that the majority of it is republican.
Women Not All Registered
Up to this time only so per cent of
the woman eligibles have registered,
but there is another registration day.
There is a woman candidate for the re-
publican nomination for representative
in Congress The Congressional Union
is trying to align the woman voters
against President Wilson on national
woman suffrage, but the democratic
women's organization has thus far re-
fused to sympathize.
The increased agricultural vote is
figured to accrue to the benefit Of the
republican party, through the influx of
farmers in great numbers from repub-
lican states. especially Iowa and Illi-
nois. The democrats will gain from the
la Dor vote in the mining centers No
body knows yet how the womans vote
viii swing. A contest over the state
wide prohibition to be settled at the
polls is not expected to enter into the
national political situation, and NAV
not affect the gubernatorial contest. al
though that may depend upon the per-
sonality of the republican nominee to
no chn at he ri ri
Gov. Stewart, democratic incumbent
will be renominated without caviI. and
will not figure in the liquor fight on
either side.
Views of Conservative Observers.
While not admitted for moment by
the democrats, who are full of optimism
as they are of aggressiveness and
energy. the prediction that Mon
| tana will go for Hughes comes from
the conservative judgment of independ-
ent politicians who deal with the
broad features of the campaign and
measure the flow of the popular cur-
rent as they see it. At the same time.
they admit that the administration of
Gov. Stewart cannot be with Justice
seriously assailed, nor his character in
any way attacked. They give the
democrats the better of the chance on
the governorship.
The republican presidential ticket is
expected to be the stronger for the fol-
lowing reasons: That protection an
peals to the wool. wheat and smelling
interests: that there Is widespread dis
satisfaction with President Wilson's
foreign policy and his handling of the
Mexican situation from the start, and
that the business interests are leaning
to the republican party.
Bull Moose Back in Fold.
| The progressives have returned to
the republican party, even former
Senator Joseph NJ. Dixon now sup
porting the ticket toyally In Montana
the progressive vote in 1912 was a
Roosevelt personal vote in large
measure. 1t, however, included many
democrats and first voters who fol-
lowed the Roosevelt temperament. The
democrats will return, and the first
voters choose their own path.
/ The democrats will lose votes from
their ranks on the administrations
foreign policy. There is a large per-
centage OF Irish in the Democratic labor
vote and diss satisfaction is rife among
them from their antipathy to England
| IL is admitted here that ~ great nanv
Irish democrats will follow the Ger,
mans in voting for Hughes There is
"A great deal of dissatisfaction with the
| criticism of the administrations course
with Mexico. Now there is grumblinp
! because the militia is being held on
the border. unnecessarily, it is charged.
Tariff Issue Subordinate.
These will be more vital questions
in the campaign than the tariff. WbiIe
protection as a policy is supported
heartily in Montana. the fact is that ~,
account of the war eeooI growers ar.
getting 81 cents for their clip, against
former IS cents. and $3.50 is quoted nm
| wheat, while cattle and horses arc
high. The democrats hope that fbs
tariff Issue Will be submerged by con.
tentment of the ranchmen.
Senator Meyers, democratic fncum-
bent. will be renominated without on
position for the United States senator
| ship, and Will rely mainly upon the
party strength. since he has not been
in public life long enough to establish
a personal strength greater than that
of his party. The two republican can
didates for the nomination, Charles NJ
Pray. former representative in Con-
Il gress for three terms. and State SEN