The Washington herald., 1916-09-24

the briefs put forward by both the
allies and the Germans. Take. first.
the claims put forward on behalf OF
the allies. 1t is true that the block
ade is pinching Germany and that
there seems no possibility that the
German fleet can in the slightest de-
gree relieve that blockade. The sub
marine policy has proved relative
failure, has had little effect on the
major issues of the war. and 1t is
highly improbable that any future
| submarine campaign will prove any
more effective. The Zeppelins, from
military point of view, have been
a joke. Shor age of raw materials
is serious handicap. The German
high command has lost the initiative
on the main fronts. and probably can
never regain II. The allies have more
men, and despite the straits of France
the human reserves OF Britain and
! Russia insure the allies a constantly
growing superiority until the end of
/ the war. The same thing holds true
as regards cannon, shells. machine
guns, war material of all kinds. The
fall of Austria Hungary. and with her
Turkey and Bulgaria, can hardly be
averted beyond next years campaign.
In Germany's Favor.
| "On the other hand, two points OF vital
Importance tell in favor OF the Germans,
and will increase In weight as time goes
on. Disregarding the German obsession
about their national soul being better
than those OF other nations, 1t is true
that morale, that imponderable factor
which Napoleon said is more important
| than armies, is on their side. 1t is true
that half the strength OF the British and
French resistance, especially the French
| in the days when the Germans had the
material and numerical advantage, was
due to the belief that Germany was wag-
dding an aggressive war which would
make life unbearable If she conquered,
would make the rest Of Europe collec1
tion of trembling, downtrodden vassal
states. That belief is now disappearing.
and with 1t is going much Of the moral
strength of the allied cause. The Ger
mans from the start have talked about
| the wanton attack made upon them; 1t Is
! impossible that they should not have rea-
lizeu they were fighting a war of con-
quest, whatever its cause and whoever
they believed to blame AS they are
| forced back Der Wacht am Rhein' will
come to have a new and literal meaning,
| the menace to the sacred soil of the faith
erland will steel every arm and nerve
every brain. The French and British
on the other hand will come to realize
that however great danger to their
| in 1914 and 1915, in 1917 all Germany asks
is to be let alone to retire and lick her
wounds. The politicians will tell them
/ that unless they carry the war across
the Rhine, Germany will strike again IN
twenty. thirty, fifty years. But 10 ordI-
nary human being is willing to get him
self massacred for the sake of his pos
terity and that argument vii lnot weigh
much with the masses.
Defensive Help.
THE second point in Germany's favor
is not moral, but material 1t consists
in the advantage conferred by modern
warfare on the side which stands upon
the defensive. The concluding phase Of
the war will find Germany, her lines
| shortened, upon the defensive every
where. The allies say they are fighting
war OF attrition, that they can swap
! ives until the German lines break. But
can they? No man can say at this time
whether a superiority in man power OF
two to one and a superiority Of three or
four to one in fire power can win this
war. 1t may prove that on the defensive
! ten men with one gun can hold up thirty
men with five guns, and II this be true
| Germany is unbeatable. There must be
limit somewhere to the material re-
sources of the allies as well to their
man power and nerve. and while theo-
reticalIy the war can be won when
enough guns and shells are. supplied. 1t
may verey well be that in practice the
requisite number can never be turned
out. r. for instance, you are told that
the allies can break through on the
western front II they have eleven million
! soldiers, 10000 cannon and four billion
shells. you will at once say that the
| task is impossible and the war Q draw"
My strong belief that no peace is
possible for a long time to come is
based on the temper or the peoples
of Europe. France. and above all
England. will not quit lighting until
! victory is won, or until II is mani
testify impossible Of attainment
have tried in this article to show how
wide apart are the conflicting opin-
| ions on the actual war situation. There
| can be no peace until Germany, or
the allies. comes around to the op
posite point of vitw. A decision in
| southeastern Europe. which may well
| be reached next spring or summer.
will not beat Germany will only
nerve Germany to greater prodigies
of defensive effort, and will not end the
war.
1t may be objected that all these
opinions seem to assume a continua-
! tion of the present slow grinding pro-
cess, and that a great victory,
break through the German lines east
|
| destroy the military power of Ger
many in a few weeks. To this IA
vorIte dream of civilization ana neu-
trail opinion I can only oppose my
own word that soldiers of the highest
ranks in both French and British ar
mics have assured me such a break
through is impossible. for such men
obviously cannot be quoted to this ef-
| feet. There is nothing that more en-
RACES soldiers at the front than the
| talk of their home newspapers about
! breaking the line. Retirements may
! be forced, but to break through at
one blow such a line as the Germans
have constructed in France is about
as practicable to bridge the At
| lantic. 1t is hard to make civilians
see why this is true. My advice to
! skeptics is to go out and look at the
German lines. Then they will un-
| der5tand.
MRS. COX ASKS ALIMONY