New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-05-22

ing the Dalance, folanu is w NC NiNN'N"
into a free state. But this means that
8 100000 Poles will be subtracted from
Austria TO balance 100000 taken from
Russia. and the 100000 Poles in Eastern
Germany, who will not be liberated, Will
look to Russia for aid to complete the
restoration of Poland, as Sardinia looked
to France.
In the Balkans it is possible that the
Allies might abandon Serbia, Just as II
is possible that they might abandon BEL
gium. but it is unthinkable. Suppose
thew did Serbia would become a vassal
to Austria, but Bulgaria would be eX-
handed, and when Russia did a similar
service to Bulgaria a generation ago Bull
garian statesmen promptly turned their
hacks on Petrograd. If Bulgaria broke
with Germany the keystone of the whole
Bagdad- Berlin arch would crumble.
Turkey. too, at the end of the war will
resume her freedom. She will need
money. and only in Paris and London can
she get money. If Russia will renounce
the dream of Byzantium then Turkey can
afford to make terms with the sea powers
as opposed TO the Contra. Powers. Tur-
kew was yesterday the ally of Britain.
Britain the protector Of Turkey, and the
change of alignment in Europe may re-
store the situation of the Beaconsheld era.
But this would destroy all hope Of Ger
man empire in Asia Minor.
The day that peace came the battle OF
intrigue would be resumed at Sofia, at
Constantinople The battle between the
Slav and the Magyars and Germans IN
Austria would be resumed. The rivalry
between the Italian and the Austrian in
the Adriatic would begin. Would such an
estate, dependent upon the will or whim
Of other races, counterbalance In the Ger
man mind the French colonies IN North
Africa or Asia, the British possessions
the world over, the Russian dominion IN
Asia? Certainly not. Would Germany
have materially improved her position IN
the face of the world as result OF her
great and, from a military point of view,
magnificent effort? Patiently not.
These are the reasons why it must be
plain to all observers that Germany, on
her own statement Of conditions, has lost
the war. But she has not lost the desire
for her place in the sun, and she has not
lost confidence in that tremendous military
machine which almost brought her VIC
tory in September, 1914. She stands IN
precisely the position that Louis NV
stood after his first encounter with the
coalition of Europe in which his armies
had overrun the Low Countries and South
ern Germany but had missed supreme
success because of the fact that EUROPE
had risen against him.
Louis XIV made peace; he made peace
on terms quite as reasonable as those of
Germany to-day. But few years later
he resumed his effort, and it was not until
the Peace of Utrecht, almost at the end
of his life, that he gave over the effort
to assert the supremacy of France IN
Europe If the terms of peace that Ger
many now offers mean anything they
mean that Germany, recognizing that she
has lost this war, seeks to close out bad
investment before her military power Is
shaken or her army has lost its reputa-
ton for something like invincibility.
After Waterloo there was no Napoleonic
legend in France for a generation, but
before Waterloo the defeats of the En-
pire were insignificant when compared
TO the victories, and France was willing
to try once more.
Europe, Paris, London and Petrograd
believe that peace now would be but
truce. They accept as true what the Ger
mans have been asserting for a genera
ton, namely, that the German people are
determined to upset the balance in world
affairs, which they believe is inequitable
to them. They believe that the German
army's really wonderful successes in the
field, despite the fact that these have
not quite awaited to bring decisive ter
mination to the conflict and impose Ger
man will ON Europe, will enable German
statesmen to enlist the German people in
a new crusade once the propitious mo-
ment arrives.
There is no difference between the
French, British, Russian and German
points of view as to the present war.
Germany has lost it. She confesses she
has lost it by Offering peace on such
terms as give her nothing real to show
for her tremendous sacrifices. But the
purpose of the Allies is TO persist until
the legend of German invincibility, like
the Napoleonic legend, is so completely
shattered that the peril for the future of
a German resumption of the assault upon
the world organization that exists, will
be abolished.
Germany is not beaten in any sense
NF..4z L.