The Birmingham age-herald., 1916-08-07
INDICATIONS POINT TOMORE SECURITIES ID PAY FOR EXPORTS England to Establish An
 other Large Credit in United States BUT LITTLE GOLD
 FOR COMMODITIES More Than Four Hundred Millions in Gold Imported Into This
 Country During Past Year
By HOLLAND

or the leading financial authorities of Great Britain stated a few days aeo that possibly England would not inn port as much from the United States in the year 1916 as she did in the fiscal year which ended on June 30, last In any event, however, her imports from the United States must be large. he asserted, and as it would not be ex pedient to spare much more gold. these must be paid for in securities which the United States seems abundantly able to absorb and willing to take.
 Whether or not England buys as many commodities in the United States with Tn the next 12 months as she did in the past year there are some indications that she is in negotiation, perhaps in the preliminary steps, with a view of securing in the United States a large credit The uses to which this credit Will be put are undoubtedly payments Tor commodities bought in the United States. There is a vague report that if this credit is negotiated it will be done upon the same highly artificial basis or which the recent loan of approxi- mately $100.00O,00O to France is an ex- ample-namely, by a side deposit of securities upon which an American bank will issue its own notes.
 It appears to be established already that the large credit to France is to be used solely to pay for commodities that France will continue to buy in this country. For it seems to be the common opinion that the unparalleled trade balance in favor of the United States-considerab in excess of $2,O0O, O,OO0 ,000-has already been paid, therefore the French loan and the con- templated English loan have been and are to be made solely for the purpose To paying for commodities which are to be bought or delivered, or both, with in the next 12 months.
 In the financial district, careful study has been given to the official state ment made in Washington of the total value of the exports which represent the international trade of the United States for the 12 months which ended on June 30. One of the first comments made after a study of these figures is based upon the increase of imports The money value of this increase, as com pared with the previous record made in. the fiscal year which ended .on June 30, 1913, is somewhat in excess o1 $500, ,000,0 900. Some have argued that this clearly points to an earnest effort which will be made by the nations now engaged in war to dump upon the United States vast amounts of com modities after the war is ended. But the best judgment Is that this increase of imports is a favorable feature. Much of the increase represents commodities of which American manufacturers are in need and which from that point of view are considered as raw material. They make it possible for the manu- lecturers to fill their orders. The fact that nearly 70 per cent of these com modities comes in free under the tariff is of no special consequence. The com. modities are needed and the greater part of them are of kind which the United States does not produce. By and by, when there is renewed tariff discussion, | it may be claimed that if there were adequate protection-as, for instance, in the instance of potash and dye stuffs-the United States would produce regarded as not to the point in the consideration of our foreign trade for the fiscal year just ended.
 It is also said that an increase Of im- ports makes it all the easier for other nations to liquidate their trade bal ances created in favor of the United States. And 1t Is sometimes said that ideal international trade conditions will not be established until imports substantially pay for exports. leaving a comparatively small balance to be paid for in gold or in some other way. CONTINUED HEAVY EXPORTS When France secured a loan of $100,- 000, ,000 in the United States and when by and by England obtains a credit for like amount, the effect of these trans actions should be observed in the re- ports from the custom houses of the United States, which will tell of heavy exports.
 There seems to be no reason now to doubt that in the fiscal year which has just begun exports may not be as large in money value as they were in the fiscal year just ended. for the opinion Is general among those who are best informed that the European war will not end earlier than August of next year. Vast as are the war materials now manufactured in England and France, nevertheless. in view of tho prevailing belief among the military leaders that munitions are likely to serve the principal part in ending the