The Wallace miner. [volume] (Wallace, Idaho) 1907-current, 1916-11-16

ceen going on so long that economic
conditions are not quite so chaotic
The operation of immutable natural
laws is not quite so obscure as 1t was
year ago. What will happen when
comes the great readjustment follow
ing peace, nobody is yet wise enough
to prophesy. Probably it will be ex-
actly what ought to happen, just as
following the outbreak of the war, but
nobody will have clear enough per-
ception to see it any more than they
did In August, 1914. But while the
war continues, we have learned GER
tain marks to go by, and that 1t Will
continue into 1917 seems now to be
az certain as anything can be.
The development Of the war produce
ed an extraordinary demand for all
metals, which are the basis of nearly
all war material other than food and
clothing. The supplies Of certain met
ais, especially zinc were cut off by the
isolation of Germany and Belgium.
The new demand for other metals
such as Northumberland to pro-
portions previously unheard of. These
conditions led to advances in price to
extravagant figures, in some instances
70 five times what they were before
the war.
In most cases the shortage of sup
ply Wherewith to meet the new, ur-
gent demand was not due to scarcity
of raw material, but rather to INSULT
cheney of plant for its conversion into
useful form. The enormous margins
that represented premium on smelling
capacity naturally induced the provi-
sion of new capacity. Thus, about a
year ago the erection of new zinc
smelteries was proceeding fast and
furiously. Such a movement had
series of logical results, viz: 1t Great
ed an Increased demand for structural
material and labor and increased the
price of them. AS new capacity be-
came available, there was increased
demand for labor to operate it and the
exaction by labor of higher terms and
incidentally, the exhibition by labor of
less efficiency. Both of these things
increased cost of production. On the
ether hand, it was inevitable that the
new production would sooner or later
equal the demand and that the price
would decline. Furthermore, it was
certain that in the end the industry
would be found to be greatly over
built with large amount of capital
locked up in useless plant. The last
condition was likely to be intensified
by the stimulus given to the develop
r1ent of new processes resulting in the
permanent relegation to desuetude of
some otherwise good plant
In the zinc industry we have seen
all these things happen except the last.
Not yet has it become necessary to
abandon plant to any great extent;
indeed, plant building is still going on.
We speak especially of the zinc in
6ustry, for the experience in it pic
TIRES exactly what Is going on in
others. The stress of conditions in
zinc was more intense and more rapid
than in other instances, for the world
was suddenly confronted by a depri-
walton of large part of it's supply,
which was not so with copper and
lead. We are now witnessing in cop
per, and to a much less extent in lead,
delayed repetition of what happened
In zinc. We may therefore attempt to
forecast their future with reasonable
confidence.
Assuming that the war is going to
continue into 1917, there is going to be
a continued large demand for the met
ais Indeed, this is so well recognize
cd that a large proportion Of the ex-
pected production of copper in 1917
has already been contracted for Pro-
ducers have sold about all their ex-
pected output up to 1917. Belated
iums for nearby copper Stocks do
not exist. This is very reminiscent of
zinc IL or IS months ago, Producers
are straining themselves to increase
capacity There is a plethora of raw
Ilaterial-ore, matte and blister cop
ptr-and there is a surplus that either
con not be smelted or refined. The
congestion is especially in the refining.
Although new refining capacity is be-
ing provided it can not be done fast
enough. The phenomenal records Of
zinc smelling construction can not be
matched for copper refinery Is a
more complicated construction, is de-
pendent upon electrical machinery,
aud the manufacturers of the latter
will not promise delivery inside of
seven months. Yet nothing is more
certain than that some day the re-
quisite refining capacity will be avail
able, stocks will begin to accumulate
and price will begin to recede Even
now there are producers who are keen
on entering into contracts for delivery
nine months or year ahead at prices
materially less than the current. All
Of these things happened in zinc.
The same things will happen also in
lead, but with notifications owing to
peculiarities of the lead industry. The
smelling and refining of lead is far
more concentrated than that of cop