The Bennington evening banner. (Bennington, Vt.) 19??-1961, 1916-06-12
WEATHER SCIENCE
It Is Good as Far as II Goes, but
1t Doesn't Go Far Enough.
SECRETS HIDDEN IN THE SUN.

Changes In Intensity and Quality OF
Solar Rays Cause Effects That Bother
Meteorologists-Why Forecasts of
Experts often Go Astray
The most imperfect science is mete-
orology, The margin of error in its
calculations is sometimes enormous
sufficient to completely reverse a pre-
dlction.
The weather bureau is n useful In
stitution, based upon an incomplete
system Of correlated facts of observa-
ton. which are scientific rs far us they
20. EUt there are elements concerned
in the production of weather about
which the methods of meteorology
give 30 Information
There are birds, insects aud four
footed animals which have an incom-
parahly greater rorcknowlcdgc of
weather changes than the entire scion
tlnc corps Of the agricultural depart.
neYt possesses.
When the Projectors Of the weather
bureau give warning of an approach
ing storm they act ON very much the
same principle rs that on which a rail.
road time table is based. a train hav-
ing been announced 10y telegraph as
started on a,given line will arrive in
regular succession at certain points
along that line, and a station agent at
any given point can. if no accident in
teryenes, forctell the moment of the
trains arrival at his station.
Storm centers. or cyclones, moving
across the country are IN some ways
comparable TO trains following n time
schedule. But unfortunately they do
not run on rails, they are not driven by
an lnyariable force, they are subject to
Interruptions ana Obstacles of many
kinds. and instead of always keeping
the track and following the course
they frequently wander vaguely about
or take an unexpected turn or else
fade away like exhausted whirls in wa.
ter.
In fact the weather bureau predic-
tors are in the same quandary in which
train dispatchers would find themselves
II railroad tracks were shifting lines,
continually drifting this way and that,
getting crossed and entangled or sink.
ing into suddenly formed Quagmires
and thus disappearing for good
Meteorology rs a science Of weather
prediction fails just because it pos.
scsSes too few facts With the aid Of
the telegraph the weather bureau can
If lucky follow the trail of n storm
center across the United States. but It
cannot tell just how new storm is
born nor just when or where It will
begin its course.
The one only great fact on which It
bases its whole system Of prediction IS
the general tendency Of cyclonic dis.
turbances in this country t. tratcl east
ward with northcrly trend. while
storms originating around the gulf OF
Mexico and the Caribbean sea usually
come up the coast
But the Official weather prognostlca.
tors are rs much in the dark as the or.
binary citizen concerning what IS going
to happen in the atmosphere next week.
! aud they really know nothing about
any storm until after it has begun its
career, and then all that they know Is
the course that it viii takc-in case it
doesn't happen to change It's mind.
\ slight variation in the intensity. or
quality. of the radiation received from
| the sun might account for sudden
changes or abnormal weather and re.
cent investigations show that such va.
riations occur. but what is needed Is
more accurate knowledge about them
and their effects. Heat and light are
only two of an infinite number of
forms Of vibration sent TO us from the
! sun. Everybody knows that when the
weather records show that two DAYS
| are precisely alike in temperature. in
humidity, etc. human nerves prove
| that they are vastly unlike in some nm.
named popularity which affects the
| springs Of life
The spider busily and confidently
spinning her webs in preparation for
n spell OF fine weather which some un-
crring mechanism of foreknowledcc
within her enables her TO detect is a
surer guide than Il barometer. She re-
spends to vibrations as yet only guess.
cd at by science, and so perhaps DO the
representative nerves Of many human
creatures.-Garrett Z. Seryiss in New
| York Journal