New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-08-15
WHAT OUR TRADE
DIRECTLY OWES
TO WAR ORDERS
AnayIsis of the Export
Figures of the Last
Twelve Months.
Nv SRINIVAS X. WAGEL.

A past president OF the Royal Sta
tisticsl Society Of Great Britain once
stated. in all seriousness, that figures
can tell the most barcfaced lies; the
advantage that figures have is that they
are able to mesmerize the man IN the
street. The foreign trade figures for
the fiscal year ended juno 80 this year
are astounding. The total is S6,5Jl ,SS"'-
577. made up Of 1883, sos, $50 exports
and s2.l97 .9s4.si2 imports. What other
conclusion can an average individual
draw but that the country IS IN apex
of prosperity? The last normal year
before the war was 1913, and we nave
an increase over that year of Sl,8S5,-
l14,O5s in exports and SiO5,3oo,3o2 IN
imports. Just "a the German Chsncel-
lor points TO the map for the achieve
ment during the last two years, so
Democrats exultantly point to the ig-
urcs. A recent statement was made that
the Republican contention that this
prosperity is temporary is absurd ID
view Of the fact that the export OF eS-
plosives amounted TO only Sil4,6oo'Joo
and the rest was all trade in normal
products.
Politics apart. let us make an analysis
of the figures and see what they have 10
saw. A prosperous foreign trade IS
rightly held to mean not only an IN
crease in value, but also an increase IN
Quantities. Except where large sums arc
due from other parts of the world, an
extra rise in imports has also been con-
sidered unhealthy. The increase III
quantities and values again must De
such as to help maintain stable trade
The report of the Department OF COM
mcrce says that prices have risen aD-
normally. For instance, copper has al
vanced from S.i48 per pound IN 1919 TO
S.24i in May, 1916; pig iron from SoZ'Z1
nor ton to SlOl.32; calf leather from
S2.7i to 1924; cotton from S.ll9 TO
s.2O7: chemicals, drugs, etc, from S2o.s4
per ton to s30.ld; mineral oils from
s.O27 to S.0l3 Prices of most articles
have risen. No valid comparison can be
made between totals expressed IN
terms Of pre-war prices and totals eX-
pressed in current prices. But the mis-
take is too often made Of comparing
values instead of the volume of trade.
The abnormal rise in prices in all com
modities, both of exports and imports,
has been to large extent responsible
for the increase in trade.
Prices and Quantities.
Let us take the imports which show
an advance Of s4o5. 3sS,362 over the
figures of 1913. ] will just point ou;
few items TO show how the rise IN
value has not been coordinate with the
increase in commodities. For instance,
100000 pounds Of copper pigs,
incots. etc. arc valued at SAC, $4,000,
while 127.00O.000 pounds imported the
previous year arc valued only at Sie''
100000; 224,00O,000 pounds Of cotton
and manufactures of cotton were I'M
ported this year at value Of S3s,oOo'-
600. while l65.G0O,OOO pounds came in
last wear. valued at s20,O0O,0OO; haX'
hemp and jute to the total of A4'ooo
tons came in, and are valued at So4'-
100000: in the precious year, 3oo,ooo
tons came i'm, valued al S34,70O,O0O.
Il is needless TO give further examples
of import values to show that much OF
tho increase is due TO the increase in
value: the addition. from the point OF
view OF volume of trade, has been in a
much smaller ratio.
At present, We are principally con-
cerned with the exports from this
country. Exports have always been
considered to affect directly prosper
ity. labor and wages in this country
An increase Of 100000 over the
previous normal figures is certainly
worth inqairing into. There IS nc
doubt also that there is considerable
/ ouantitativc increase, compared to the
/ volume of 1918. In an inquiry Of this
kind ono has to avoid any other con-
sideration but that which is purely
economic. 4 study of the trade figures
/ for several years shows the normal
/ incrca,c possible in each branch OF
trade. 1t would be foolish to assume
/ that the trade in aeroplanes, eXplo'
/ sizes and munitions would continue
/ after the war. As TO manufactures OF
/ iron and steel, steel rails and manufact'
/ ures OF wire. practically every article
! large quantities of which have beer
I bought by Europe, are al manufact-
ured in Europe except the trade
/ in raw materials, which has not in
creased in value. For the twelve
months ended June 80 export Of food
stuffs was TO the value of Sl,23l BIB,
$50. as compared 20 sl,2S9, 1885 il
the previous twelve months. In spite
! of the decrease, the value of export o.
/ breadstuffs has trebled since 1913. Tn,
1916 figures were 100000, as com
pared with Sl65,O00,0O0 in 1918. Mea
and dairy products were to the value
of 1854 100000, as against Sl46,000,0 0C
in 1913. This increase is due mainly
to the rise in prices, as we'll as tn,
fact that Europe has to buy more OF
/ account IL The war Rv tnrcne [ nnnar