The Washington herald. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1906-1939, 1916-03-05
BY JOHN L. BALDERsToN.


tNote-Air BaldestonS article was received in
this country before the great battle Of Yeriun was
begun by the Germans
Copyright 1916 By Mcclure Newspaper syndicate)
London, Feb. 12.-In the luIl before the
commencement OF the great struggles
that will rage throughout spring, sum-
mer and autumn, in all human proba-
btlity involving more men and more
bloodshed than any previous campaigns
I in the history of the world, II will be
useful TO outline the nature of the mill
tary problems confronting the higher
commands. A broad view Of the situa-
ton on all fronts, excluding economic
and financial considerations, may dispose
of certain prevalent fallacies and help to
make clear the wider meaning of earth
shaking events which probably will take
place in March, and hardly can be post
poned beyond April. 1t will be possible
to undertake this survey without indulg-
ing in prophecy that such and such a
campaign will or will not take place. a
pastime INDUCED in with conspicuous
lack Of success by all classes Of the
population over here, including general
staff officers.
At the close of the winter the antago-
nists face each other, roughly, as fol-
lows: On the west front four British
armies of perhaps 100000 men and ten
French armies comprising possibly 1900
divisions, ninety divisions representing
| the normal garrison Of the trench lines
| from Flanders TO Switzerland. and seven
teen divisions having been recently trans
ferred from the Eastern front. If each
! division were at full strength, which is
most improbable, there would be on the
west front 2.14,O00 Germans against
2. 800, 900 French and British. On the east
| front, from the Gulf of Riga to the
Roumanian border, eighty-three divisions
or something less than l,66O.oO0 Germans
are fighting by the side of about 10000
| Austrians. making a total force OF, say,
| .. 800. 900 Teutonic allies against possibly
| g. 10000 Russians. This last figure is less
certain, but it is not far from the truth
II the Russian establishments are up to
strength. and the Slav war minister
/ Polivcanofr said this week that Russia
has 100000 trained recruits in reserve
waiting the call to fill the. gaps
Lineup in other Fields.
Taking the less important fields of
operations. there are at Saloniki rough
| ly, 10000 French and British troops I'M
der Gen. SarraiL, and massed against
\ them on the Greek border are 10000
Bulgarians. Something like ten divisions
| of Germans took part in the Serbian
campaign, but the best information is
that most of them have returned to the
main fronts, although some of these 2oO,
coo veterans of Mackensen undoubtedly
remain in the Balkans. England, accord
ing to the Germans, is massing 10000
men in Egypt to defend the Suez Canal
and re-enforcements from Australia, In
dia and South Africa continue to arrive.
This figure is probably too high A Turk
| ish host estimated at 10000 is gathering
| in Syria TO march across the Desert of
Sinai as son as Meissner Pasha has com
IL 1frl,. f1I u
| tial for the operation. On the italian
front, Gen. Cadorns estimates that
| twelve Austrian corps, of something un-
der 600 men, are combating him, and
800 900 is the current estimate of the Ital-
ian army, with abundant reserves to call
upon when needed. In the Caucasus,
Grand Duke Nicholas, with perhaps 800,
| 900 men, is fighting not more than 100000
Turks, and Won der Goltz Pasha is es-
timated to have under him in the Meso-
potamian campaign not less than four
corps. or 10000 men, against perhaps
| 10000 British under Gems. TOwnshend
and Aylmer. These last figures are not
worth much because both sides are rush.
| ing re-enfOrcements to the Asian thea
tiers. The fighting in the Cameroons and
East Africa is being conducted with
forces whose size is insignificant meas
ured by the scale on which this war is
conducted.
The numbering of the rival hosts,
which in all cases must be understood as
only approximate. does not take into tn"
count a factor quite as important as man
power; proba bly,, on the main fronts,
! more so. That is fire power. No estimate
of the number of cannon and shells
available can be made, but the general
indications are that, on the west front,
the allies are far superior in both re-
spects, unless the German munition fac
tories have far surpassed their miracles
of last winter On the east front, 1t is
certain that the Austro-Germans will re-
tain their fire superiority this year. What
ever improvement may have taken place
in the tragic Russian situation. At
Saloniki opportunities for munitionmont
are about equal; in Egypt. the British
have an overwhelming advantage be
cause Turkish cannon and projectiles
must be brought across the desert by
single field railroad. In the Caucasus
and in MesOpotamia stupendous difficult
ties exist for the artillery officers of
both sides, and only the event can show
which have proved more enterprising.
14,23O,OOO in War.
The whole lineup I have given indi-
Gates that on the fighting fronts, not
far short of 100000 Germans. 1,6SOOOO
Austrians, 7OC,OO Turks and 10000 Bull
gSrS are opposing 0,oOV,ONV NuSSldlS-
100000 British. $4,000 French and 9OO,-
900 Italians. This would give $4,000 SOL
diers of the central powers against
7,65O,OO0 allies, and without claiming any
special authority for these totals 1 would
wager that neither is more than 10 per
cent off.
When it comes to the vital question
of reserves, the situation of the central
powers is not so good. Germany, count
ing all the more or less nit men up to the
Nage of 81, cannot muster more than
900, 900 additional reserves, and in the
heavier fighting to come she is not likely
to be able to keep her permanent wastage
down to its normal figure of 10000 men
a month. The situation in Austria is
more obscure, but Franz-Josef called up
his older men early in the winter, and
100000 more reserves obtained by this
method and by re-eXamining the unfit are
liberal estimate. Bulgaria has mobil-
lied all her fighting men, while SO great
is the economic crisis in Turkey that the
Germans will do well to add 100000 more
Turks to the 100000 now fighting for the
Kaiser and the prophet This estimate
would show 100000 reserves remaining
for the central powers.