Daily capital journal. (Salem, Oregon) 1903-1919, 1916-06-28

New lOfk, June Z4.-NeItnef the
United States nor Mexico really wants
war; yet conditions are such that a
catastrophe of this sort seems immi-
nent. TO the United States the CON
sequences cannot be serious, except in
the unnecessary loss of life. Neither
The creation of an army Of 100000 to
100000 men, nor the expenditure of a
few hundred millions of dollars will
make any decided impression upon the
vast resources of the United States.
The ratio of costs and losses in a war
with Mexico would be very much less
than in case Of the European war, and
no such corresponding outlays for mu-
nitiOns and transportation would be
necessary. No serious international
difficulties are threatened by the Mex
lean crisis. War or Intervention might
can states, which we have been sin
cerely trying TO avoid with partial
success, and which should pass away
entirely as our southern neighbers ac-
quire better understanding Of our in
tentions, War might raise some ques-
tiOns concerning our responsibilities
TO other nations which, like ourselves,
have large interests in Mexico that
would be vitally affected 1t is too
early, however, to intelligently dis
cuss such problems, and for the time
being we are chiefly concerned with
immediate action. We may first an
ticipate a period OF excitement and
an adjustment from peaceful to war
like conditions. Mobilization of men,
war finance, preparations and ship
ments Of munitions will each act as
and promote activity. OPP
timism is one of the usual concOmi-
tants of war; yet it must be remember
ed that this war should it really come
will be a relatively small affair, and
that in a comparatively short period
the country win become accustomed
to the new conditions and affairs will
90 on mucn as before. How long and
how stiff a struggle is to be expected
cannot be foretold; nor ought its diff
ficultes to be underestimated, al
though the immense superiority Of the
United States in resources and men in
licates but one result--war with Mex
leo cannot end until order, justice and
a stable government have been estab-
hshed upon a firm basis. Tn any
event the task is a thankless one. Our
government has already made it clear
that it has no lust OF conquest, nor
territorial ambitions; declaration
that should be lived up to not only for
our own good, but also as an example
Of good faith and good will between
and all South American re-
publics. For Mexico the war is ser
ious matter, since with limited finan-
cial resources and difficulty in secur-
ing adequate supplies of munitions de-
feat is dOubly certain.
The domestic outlook for business
continues encouraging. Yet, there are
certain developments and growing
which should not be over
looked. Some slackening of trade has
already occurred owing to The exces-
sive rise Of manv commodities. For
example, in nearly all metals, which
advanced because of the European
war, there is a weakening tendency,
and it would seem as if the turning
point had at last been reached. The
steel industry, though active and still
in excellent condition, is qdieter; de-
mand is less urgent, and premiums on
quick deliveries have been abandoned.
Signs Of coming weakness are also OBJ
servable in copper, lead, spe!ter and
other minerals, not so mucn because
Of a decline in demand, as because OF
an increase in output. The same is
true of petroleum which must soon
feel the consequences Of the aremend-
Gus development of new wells following
increased consumption and abnormally
high prices Tnese conditions are not
wholly discouraging. On the contrary
they prove progress and activity; also
a necessary readiustment to new eco
monte conditions, ana the fact that
supply is overtakino demand. Many
commodities had reached a dangerous
" hiuh level, often the .esult of reck-
less and unsound speculation. Tne
days of extravagant war profits de-
rived from big European orders are
drawing to close. At most it is safe
to assume that the European war is
about two-thirds done; and that while
orders will not cease sudden
ly, it is well to appreciate that hence
forth they win play diminishing
part in our trade and iuTustrial activi-
ties. From now on the industrials,
which benefited so extraordinarily
from the misfortuues Of others, must
face the inevitable recessions to more
normal conditions.
Peace is not yet in sight; vet the