New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-08-14
OUR INFLATED
WAR COMMERCE
An Analysis of the Fortui'
tOus Present Elements
in Foreign Trade.

All American merchants will be in
terested in report issued to-day by
the National Foreign Trade Councils
committee on cooperation in foreign
trade. II contains an analysis Of the
"fortuitous elements in present foreign
commerce." and urges upon exporters
the necessity of harmonious action IN
meeting conditions after the war. The
membership of the National Foreign
| Trade Council contains such names as
John d. Ryan, president of the Ana
conda Copper Company, and James A.
Farrell, the operating head of the
United States Steel Corporation.
These, with others equally well
known in their fields, have been urging
Congress to take such action as will
facilitate the development of American
export trade by removing such disad-
vantages as may now be imposed by
our antitrust laws. A summary Of the
committees report, which has been
submitted to the Judiciary Committee
Of the lower house of Congress, IS
/ shown herewith:
''In 1913 the per capita foreign trade
Of England was S149, of Germany $40
and of the United States only S44. For
1916 it is estimated that that OF the
/ United States will be 500, or $50 with
out ammunition and firearms. This ex-
cess of export trade over the normal
rests largely upon the following cir
cUmstances:
"(a) Abnormal war demand and
prices for munitions, foodstuffs and
raw materials.
"(b) Elimination Of normal Euro
pean competition through occupa-
ton of European factories in NUM-
tons production.
"(c) Loss Of labor through en-
listment or CONSUMPTION and bel
ligerent restriction Of normal ex-
portation.
"(d) Curtailment Of investment
! of European capital in neutral mar
kets, normally a stimulus 70 Euro
pean export trade.
"These abnormal conditions having
prevailed in the export trade for near
/ ly two years, many Americans are In
danger Of relying upon them as per-
manent. No greater fallacy is possible
than to neglect to expect, after the war,
{ the following developments:
"(a) Cessation of war demand
: and prices for munitions, reduction
OF prevailing high prices for ex-
ported foodstuffs and raw materials
by reason of restored European
competition, normal transportation
+ and international movement OF raw
materials.
"(b) Resumption of normal Euro
/ pean competition in home and neu-
! trail markets by reason Of return
/ of soldiers to industry and the Int
/ ing of military embargoes from
expectations.
"(c) Renewed activity of Euro
pean export and import combina--
tons, with increased governmental
support and possibly preferential
tariff and navigation arrangements
under economic alliances.
"(d) Renewal, as rapidly as bust
ness conditions and national, or
even international, fiscal policy
will permit, of European invest
ment in neutral markets, the most
effective method of creating for
egn preference for merchandise OF
leading nations. European war
finance has been moulded 10 pro-
tect trade-winning foreign invest
ments; their nourishment Will not
be neglected with peace.
Against the foregoing adverse ele-
ment must be set the demands of re-
newed peace activities, return of con-
fdence, demand for materials for i'm
mediate reconstruction of devastated
districts and revival of development
enterprises.
"Europe's accustomed instrument for
these activities will be cooperative eff
fort, beginning with cartels and trade
associations of producers, manufact-
urers, exporters and bankers, rein
forced by the backing of the state,
and, unless the discussions with which
industrial Europe now vibrates shall
fail, supplemented by economic alli
ances succeeding the war alliances now
in force. Continuance Of the present
condition spells European industrial
and governmental cooperation versus
American compelled competition"