The Birmingham age-herald., 1916-01-02
Redd Sees Consumption Half Million Greater Than
 the Visible Supply
EGYPT AND INDIA
 ARE BOTH SHORT
Demand for Explosives Has Cur, tailed Basic Products From Which the Best Fertilizers
 Are Made

1 William P. Redd of Birmingham, rec
 onized authority on crops and fertilizers,
 has, at the request of various interests, prepared an article on the cotton situa- ton, which is as follows:
 l That middling cotton can be bought in the south today at lie per pound. | is the wonder of any man who is posted
 upon fundamental conditions When a few of the underlying facts are consid- cred, it can be easily understood why i spot holders are offering very sparingly | at these quotations.
 Tt was soon established after the be- ginning of the European wars that we had produced during 1914 16,000OOo bales of | lint cotton, and it was forecast that | 65 per cent of our export demand would be cut off. That cotton sold $15 per bale under the cost of production, is his | tory, however, as the season advanced a wonderful export demand developed, which, during the cotton year reached the astounding figures of S,5O0,0O0 bales,
 as against S,SOO,O0O bales for the previous i year. The American mills consumed
 more than the normal quantity, or 6,200 GOO bales, against little less than 6,00o 0OO Regardless of the wars, from this
 abnormal crop, the world has consumed approximately IA, 7Oe,OoO bales of American cotton This consumption, deducted from | the 1914 yield, including stock carried over, left little more than 3,000000 bales | surplus on September 1, 1915.
 THINGS TO BE CONSIDERED | "The government has estimated the l 1915 yield at Il, 900 bales, while later l figures rather indicate that the crop will not exceed Il ,O00 coo, exclusive of linters. 1 To this add 100000 bales carried over, and you have a total of 14,00,000 bales | of American cotton for consumption | within the F months from September 1,
 1915, to September l, 1916
 "The government shows that 1.0000 900
 more spndles are in operation in this
 country than last year, and that the | present monthly consumption indicates
 that 100000 bales will be used from this
 seasons crop. Deduct 100000 bales from l last seasons exports (while many yet
 think the foreign demand will be as greaD and you have 14,500.000 bales of l American cotton, with only 100000 bales
 in sight, including stock carried over, a deficit of 500,000 bales before any part of
 another crop is available.
 l Neil Brothers (English statisticians) estimate of the consumption of American
 cotton for the season is 14,250000 bales, and they are considered bearrshly con- l serVative.
 1 Prom government figures, we are in- formed that India has reduced its acre. age P per cent mo doubt their crop is gathered during our spring), which points
 to a yield of 100000 400 pound bales, against 5,000O normally. Egypt is said | to have also reduced it's acreage 33 per cent, pointing to a yield of about 600, ,O00 1 bales against 100000.
 FERTILIZER TO MAKE COTTON
 "The scarcity of labor in the south has made it impossible to produce more than ! 12 OOO,600 or 13,0000 bales of cotton dur
 ing any given year, except with the aid of two combined agencies. First, favor a ble weather conditions. and second, a liberal application of commercial fertil- l izer The first is an act of providence
 and is therefore speculative, the sec
 ond is this yeaD entirely a question of supply.
 ] The demand for explosives has prac- ] tically absorbed all of the chemicals previously used as a basis in the manu- facture of fertilizers, at prices so much more satisfactory than the unprofitabe prices of the past for such fertilizers 1 that the manufacturer cannot be blamed | for disposing of his crude materials | Aeain, Germany controls the available potash of the world for fertilizing uses
 and this supply was immediately cut of with the advent Of the wars. The small supply in America was exhausted during
 (Continued on Page Ninc)