The Washington herald. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1906-1939, 1916-03-12

of victory Is clear enough, but with the
war a draw, nothing but political chaos
can be foreseen for that unhappy region0
Return of the German colonies.
These terms contain concessions that
each side at present would regard as
spelling defeat and humiliation for itself.
but, taken together they do not to a
neutral, spell victory for either group.
have ignored the all-important prob
lens of Alsace-Lorraine, Trieste. Con-
stantinople and Asia Minor, as well as
the Balkans, so the terms mentioned
represent forecast not of the treaty as
a whole, but of certain features of the
peace Of Washington, Berne or Madrid.
As to Length of War.
How long will the war last?
Military men ignore anniversaries, and
divide the calendar into good and bad
fighting weather. The first major cam
paign of this war lasted from August to
November, 1914. Then came a relative
lull, despite the hard fighting in Poland.
and the second great campaign opened
in April, 1915, and lasted until the de-
struction of Serbia in November The
third campaign has opened and will con-
tinue in its turn until next November.
1 believe that while the lighting in
the third campaign will not be decisive,
successes will be gained on the allied
side of great local Importance, and that
when the combats die down next autumn
the peoples of the entente countries will
insist on another campaign, unless Ger
many will yield to humniating terms
Germany. by November, II her bid for a
decision has failed, will have given up
all hope OF winning, and will be on the
defensive, fighting to prove that she
cannot be beaten.
There will then be, in my opinion, a
fourth great campaign, opening in the
spring of 1917.
That the countries of Europe can en-
dure a fourth war winter is to me In
conceivable. Starvation, revolution, an
archy in Austria Hungary and disturb
ances elsewhere so violent as seriously to
endanger the fabric of the warning states
would be the inevitable result Of the
agony among the civilian populations in
the fourth winter. These things may hap
pen in the third winter; I think 1t is
certain they would happen in the fourth.
The fourth winter of war would open in
November 1917.
May End In 1917.
My estimate, therefore is that the war
will end some time between the begin.
ming of the fourth campaigning season.
IN April, 1911, and the beginning of the
fourth winter. in November. 1917.
This belief is entirely too optimistic to
suit the best military opinion. Kitchener's
original estimate that the war would last
three years has been raised by allied
strategists, because of the unexpected
Russian defeats last year. to four years,
six years, and even seven years But
these experts, l think, fail to take into
account the limit of endurance on the
part of the civilians. II the PEOPLE were
faced with massacre or slavery II they
did not fight on. the war would last in
definitely, but before the fourth cam
paign is under way the inha bitants OF
the entente countries will clearly under
stand that they can have peace II they
want 1t. with no immediate prospect OF n
revival OF the German peril. They will
say. at the last: We cannot perish for
our descendants. II Germany cannot be
crushed and will again raise her head to
strike in thirty years. let them look TO
that. We have done what We could
II 1t be asked why the end will not
come next fall. in response to the Clamor
for peace that will undoubtedly arise as
the third winter Of war approaches. I
can only say do not think the universal
agony will have become so great by that
time as to force the statesmen to give
up their dreams. Germany will not con-
sent to yield back the line of the VistuIa
strongest military barrier in Europe.
which would make her almost secure
against attack from Russia for genera
lions to come. and for the same reason
neither Russia nor her allies will consent
to leave a German army on the Vistula,
a position giving Germany an immense
advantage in a future struggle That
Is one issue. and there are six almost as
important Nothing but an uprising of
the great masses which care nothing for
political Screenings will stop the war I'M
less one side wins a military decision.
That uprising will not come, in my
opinion, before the approach OF the
winter of 1918.
Expects Big Sea Battle.
Will there be great battle at sea?
To this much mooted question l am
confident that the answer is yes" The
reason is rather psychological than
strategic. Cervera's short dash to his
doom at Santiago and Rojestvensky' S
long trip to destruction in the Yellow
Sea- were undertaken without hope. and
were caused by the same factors that will
fore the high seas fleet to come out to
Its doom, or the Drcadnoughts of JellicOC
to 20 into German waters after II.
The British and German navies will
come to a death grip because of the
pressure of public opinion. That pres
sure is steadily increasing in England
and Germany. There is a vague dissat-
isfaction in England with the navy, a
feeling that it ought to do more" which
YOU hear expressed whenever a German