New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-10-22

DuI we can say lnat IL Will come, tnAt ~
will come 70 the weaker party, which Is the
Central Alliance, first, and that it will coma
while the opposing alliance has still album
dant supply of men TO keep its armies at
the maximum Of necessary strength. Con-
ceivably the Germans may win the war,
possibly the Allies may win tho war; but
If 1t goes on as it is now going, II it turns
on battle losses, If it remains q contest Of
attrition, the ultimate outcome is patent
Now, in such space as remains TO me-
desire to set forth few more figures, an
estimate Of the cost in casualties of the
campaign Of the present year-that ia.
from January to the end Of October. In
this time / believe the French have lost
100000, 100000 at Verdun and 10000 ut
the Somme and elsewhere; the British
100000, mainly at the Somme; the Ital-
ians 100000; and the Russians 1,000, 900.
This last is the German estimate of Rus.
sian casualties since June 1t is high, but
l accept it, only stretching it to include
the operations prior to June, which were
not very expensive. All told, tho Allies
have thus lost 100000.
Failure at Verdun
Now as to the Central Powers: The
German loss at Verdun was not less than
100000. At the Somme it has been around
100000, including all other casualties on
the Western front. Defending themselves
at the Somme, the Germans have lost about
half as many men as their assailants. At
Verdun, where they were the assailants,
they lost at similar ratio On the east
ern and Balkan fronts the German less
has been not less than 100000, the price Of
checking the Russian drive. All told, the
German loss has been 100000. As for
the Austrians, they have lost at least 750,.
900, including over $4,000 prisoners
mainly TO the Russians.
Now examine these last figures and YOU
will see what the results of the new Allied
tactics Of pounding have been, combined
with the German failure at Verdun. In
about ten months the Germans and Aus
TRANS, who started with a man power, let
US say, of 100000, or 10 per cent Of their
total population, have lost 100000 in
killed, wounded and captured, and this is
more than II per cent Of their total. In
the same time the Allies have lost 2,00O,-
900, or rather less than per cent of their
original man power, again applying the 10
per cent rule In other words, the rate Of
exhaustion Of the Central Powers this year
has been twice as great in relation 10 their
total resources as that Of the Allies. u is
my judgment, too, that the figures have
given are low for the Central Powers and
high for their enemies.
The Allies Cain
Nor does this complete the statement,
We have official Russian figures to prove
that 100000 prisoners were taken by the
Russians in their great advance, and these
figures were repeated in debates in the
Hungarian Chamber. We have the Italian
claim of 10000 prisoners taken in their
Gorilla drive, and Anglo-French claims,
officially made, of the capture Of at least
$4,000 Germans at the Somme. Here is q
loss in prisoners of not less than SIS, 900
for the Central Powers.
As against this the Germans have
claimed about $4,000 French taken about
Verdun, the Austrians have claimed about
the same number of Italian prisoners
taken chiefly in the Trentine drive.
German and Austrian reports have
not claimed more than 100000 Russian
prisoners this year. Thus the loss in pris-
oners of the Allies is more than two and .
half times less than that of the Central
Powers and their permanent loss, by rea-
son Of the years campaign, is thus less
than that of their enemies. Able, because
Of their superior population, to bear much
larger absolute losses than their enemies,
the Allies have actually suffered losses abb
solutely, not merely relatively, smaller.
Attrition in the Civil War
In our own Civil War Grant was the
first Union commander TO grasp the logic
Of attrition. He applied it unhesitatingly.
He accepted the responsibility for colossal
losses that did not bring any advantage
upon the battlefield for many months, be-
cause he foresaw that the time would come
when the South, although its losses were
actually smaller than his own, wouli not
be able to replace the casualties out Of its
inferior population. Allied logic, STACEY.
policy, are Grants; they are doing what he
did; they are fighting his kind Of battle
with equally great resources in numbers,
if not in material, and with the control OF
the sea and superior financial powers
which the North possessed. For Ameri-
cans the Civil War parallel was never
more Illuminating than at the present mo-
ment.