New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-10-24

chance was lost and that a CORE
spondingly great German success has
resulted.
It was the moral value of the
German failure at Verdun that de-
pressed the Germans and reused the
French 10 new confidence. 1t was the
moral effect of the Russian victories
in Galicia that contributed TO still
further depression in Berlin and new
faith in the Allied capitals. The
early advances in the Battle Of the
Somme seemed to confirm the other
indications that the long-postponed
crumbling Of German power was in
sight. Finally the entrance of Ru-
mania was a demonstration that
what the Allies felt, the most ex-
posed and imperilled of all possible
recruits believed.
Now the moral effect Of Ru-
mania's disaster is equally to be
reckoned with. Berlin and Vienna
will respond to the new victory as
did Paris and London to the pre-
vious triumphs. German leaders
have declared that Germany is in
vincible, and now Mackensen and
Falkenhayn have supplied fresh evil
dence in the field. Hindenburg has
been called upon to restore hope and
confidence, and under his supreme
command confidence and hope have
been restored.
1t is foolish to attempt to mini
mize the meaning of Constanza,
whatever be its consequences. 1t will
have precisely the effect in Allied
capitals that Grants failure to dis
pose of Lee in 1864 had in Washing
ton. After the terrible sacrifices
from the Rapidan to Cold Harbor, to
the trenches before Petersburg, the
South still stood invincible, and
Early approached and threatened
Washington.
Recognizing all this, however, it
is equally futile to exaggerate the
meaning of this new triumph.
Germany has disposed Of a new
foe in shining fashion; she has
warded off a terrible thrust with su-
preme skill and with a promptness
that commands admiration, but this
does not on the military side change
the situation which existed before
Rumania came in, save as it has re-
duced the reserves of the Central
Powers through losses in cam
paign against a new enemy.
The Allied publics, which believed
that Germany was actually crum-
bling, short of man power, facing
immediate defeat, will have to re-
wise their calculations. The German
people, who believed that Germany
could stand on the defensive indefi-
nitely, will find new confirmation for
their faith, and the new confidence
will materially strengthen German
resistance, as the French defence at
Verdun strengthened French conf
dence and French determination.
We are now going to see a new
period of depression among the Al
lied nations. We are going to see
a time of doubt and of trial. This
was the experience of the North in
the terrible test of 1864. But the
people of the North stood firm in the
face of temporary depression and
the outcome of their firmness was
ultimate victory. There was a SINH
lar period of doubt and hesitation
when Napoleon won his victories in
the Marine Valley in 1914, but In
the end his enemies persevered and
the collapse came.
This is unquestionably the great
crisis of the war for the Allies. If
their alliance can endure this new
reverse and this very illuminating
demonstration that the way to ultl-
mate victory must be long and cost
". the German success at Constanza,
the disaster to Rumania, will have
no real consequences. But Ger
many will use her utmost effort to
make this last success the basis for
a settlement which shall not be I'M
favorable 70 her or too costly to her
foes. She has her excuse for pro-
posing victorious peace" again
She will use it.