The Washington herald., 1916-07-24
BRITAIN FEARS
BLACK AUTUMN
Kingdom May Be Faced with
Famine in 1917, Says
Balderston.
By JOHN L. BALDERsToN.
(Copyright. lsis.l

BY JOHN L, BALDERsToN.
tcopyrisht. lsis9
London, July SIT the war keeps on
We shall be faced by starvation in the
autumn OF 1917. BY starvation ! mean
that the price Of food will rise until It
is beyond the power OF the poor to keep
themselves alive"
The whole world Is discussing the food
shortage in Germany. While the prices
Of necessities at home creep remorseless-
ly upward, the Englishman eagerly reads
Of food riots in Munich and Berlin and
wonders how long his starving enemies
can hold out But the statement above
was not made by Herr Won Batocki, Ger
man food dictator. but by an English
authority, and he referred to the starva-
ton not of Germany but of-England!
The speaker was Bernard Gilbert, prest-
dent Of the Farmers TariT Union, who
got rich out Of farming before he entered
the agricultural interests. Before quot
ing Mr.. Gilbert further, II should be
said, as he himself would admit that his
diagnosis OF what Is admittedly a grave
situation would be condemned as too pes
simistic by most Of his countrymen-
Food Prices Increase.
According to the Board Of Trade La
Dor Gazette" continued Mr.. Gilbert, "es-
sential foodstuffs have increased In price
by 50 per cent since war broke out, and
the prices must continue to rise still
more sharply in the future. In the next
twelve months, II will advance at least
another 40 per cent Each housewife can
calculate for herself what that will mean.
1T is true that Germany has faced
rise OF 100 per cent, but her genius for
organization has helped her to bear II in
a manner We cannot hope to emulate.
Three causes make our food dear and will
Nk - - F1k aA,Lr
from abroad. the second. the lessened
production OF homegrown food and the
third the fact that food is dearer all over
the world
AS shipping has become, for the first
time in our lives, an unknown quantity.
homegrown food becomes increasingly
important when We consider the future.
\ strong government might commander
all the ships even in the face OF the pow
ertul interests concerned, but even then
the situation is regulated by naval edt
gencies, the German submarine cam
palgn and other factors beyond our con-
troll.
CruI of Matter.
The crux Of the matter Is this: British
crops and flocks will set the prices for
the next twelve months. What are the
prospects? I have just made a tour IN
Lincolnshire, a county in which have
lived all my life. and discussed the Ques-
ton with prominent farmers They were
unanimous In declaring that the food
outlook Is calamitous The harvest Of
1916, as they say will be very poor, and
the harvest Of 1917 must be poorer still.
unless a complete change Of methods is
made.
"As II the troubles Of our own foolish
ness were not enough. Providence sent
US in the spring Just gone an almost
Unprecedentedly unfavorable seed time
March and April were enough to madden
every farmer. even had he been full
handed A vast acreage was never prop
erly sown, and we are now faced by
short harvest No energy by the gov
ernment or the farmer can avert the re-
suit Of this. although unusually hot sun
shine would somewhat improve It. But
whatever the weather, we are certain to
have poor Yields
Mr.. Gilbert warmly attacked the re-
cruiting policy Of the government, which
by conscription. he said, has taken from
the farms the men whose work Is needed
70 feed the people OF Britain.
Harvest May Be Disastrous.
Unless labor Is found for the land"
TO aid the farmers, the harvest of 1917
will be disastrous. and We shall, between
July and October, 1917, be faced by star
vation prices. To assure an increased
harvest work must be commenced at
least a year In advance To provide more
food for 1917 we must begin now. 1t is
too late 20 help 1916.
The state wants at this moment and
IN the near future will want much more
urgently, an increased production Of food
from each acre. This is essential unless
we are to starve. Yet as conditions are
the farmers cannot produce more food.
but must produce much less
-1r- Init o. - R-I 1aA f1-
the land. The process that has been in
force for the past two years must be
completely reversed, and instead OF farm
ers pleading too often IN vain for their
men. the men already taken must go
back Moreover. immediate angements
must be made for improved credit facili-
ties for farmers, their transit troubles
must receive attention, and a strong.
practical body must cope with the situa-
ton That is the only course that will
starve of the black autumn Of 1917.
Soil Poorly Titled.
The year 1911 will begin under the
vo= { possible auspices. The soil will
have been poorly titled, scarce weeded.
and insuticiently nlanured, and the evil
results Of the recruiting campaign Of the
last two years will materialize. The au-
tur1n OF 1917 will be a bumper time for
shippers, for meat rings. for neutral
farmers and food merchants, but for the
poorer classes Of Great Britain It will be
q black time
There Is an impression that women are
replacing the missing men. They are, in
places, but the publicity given to cases
here and there Is utterly misleading.
They are as a drop in the ocean, and
what women there are as yet are mainly
useless. 1t takes a man several years to
become a skilled farm laborer, and the
hard physical exertion and continuous
loLJ hours are beyond the scope of
women
Before the war there were three-auar-
ters Of a million laborers on the farms,
and by next harvest almost all who were
efficient and capable OF the best work
will be in khaki. The handful Of women
now working on farms will not produce
man, sacks Of corn between them.
Women Began Too Late,
With all the good will in the world. il
Is impossible; land work is not for un-
trained women. II half a million women
had begun year ago, the position would