The Washington times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1902-1939, 1916-11-05
THE CLAIMS AND THE FACTS

to choose a President. This morn
ing the Republican national chair
man claims 1854, and Democratic
chairman Eat least" 366.
Not in the generation in which
political guessers Of today have
lived, has there been more difficult
situation on which to base forecasts.
The number of the unwonted factors
is astonishing, as will be evidenced
il the inquirer will ask twenty men
whose election they expect, and why;
for the why's will be about as num-
erous as the answers.
That Mr.. Wilson will get the
States of the old South is not ques-
toned; and aside from Connecticut,
which has some elements Of uncer-
tainty, New England is conceded to
Mr.. Hughes. Outside that, both
sides claim almost everything in
sight. The women's vote is the basis
Of Democratic hopes for Illinois;
but the last weeks of the campaign
seem to have dissipated pretty
thoroughly the hope of Democrats
that the women might give them
California. There has been more
experience with women voting in
California than in Illinois, and the
best judgment is that the ladies will
not materially change the proper
tionate division of the total vote. 1t
seems a good guess that any Dem
ocratic gains in Illinois will be so
distributed among men and women
as to show that the result would
have been substantially the same if
only the men had voted.
In the last analysis, the women
constitute a less factor of uncer-
tainty than the Progressives and
the Pacifists. The Middle West is
doubtful because nobody knows how
the Progressives Of 1912 will divide
now, and nobody is sure how far the
ideal of peace-at-any-price will
swing the farmers and industrial
workers away from normal moor
ings. The New York Herald de-
clares, from analysis of it's straw
vote covering the country, that the
election will be decided by New
York, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michi-
gan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. That
makes q total Of 1853 votes in its
doubtful columns, and the indicated
conclusion from its poll is that New
York and Indiana will 60 with sixty
electors to Hughes, while the
others-Ohio, Illinois, Michigan,
Wisconsin and Minnesota-will be
for Wilson, with ninety-three. Thus,
to elect Wilson, it Is necessary that
he capture a huge bunch Of votes
that have been in other times over
whelmingly Republican. There will
be wide misgivings about the pos
sibility Of Democratic victory that
is to be won without New York
or Indiana. Never before since the
present party alignment came into
existence would il have been deemed
seriously possible.
In the closing days of the cam
paign it has become apparent that
there is intense interest and con-
Germ over the outcome; but this must
be differentiated from intense en-
thusiasm for either candidate. There
has not been such enthusiasm.
People are vastly more concerned
about the future Of the United
States than about the political
fortunes Of any candidate. There
will be more votes cast on Tuesday,
by men and women who will make
their decision with difficulty and
uncertainty, than ever in the
memory Of the present body of
voters. There will be, when the re-
turns are in and the result known,
more people who will wonder
whether they are proud of "landing
u-;tb kba ,tr;ona~O than nuay. ho g.