Evening star., 1916-08-27

found that the war will have an e
the close.
What are the rea sons for this change
in opinion: why does the four-year
period now seem the probable measure
of the world conflict? The reasons are
not difficult to set forth; they are mill
tary. political and economic. but in a
sense tho military element is subor-
dinated to the economic and the politi-
cal.
To take the military point of view
first. 1t is the conviction Of most allied
observers that the Germans will be COM
PEELED to contract their lines either in
the east or the west before the winter
comes. But no considerable contrac-
tion, no retreat that will carry the war
back into Germany, is regarded as even
conceivable for this year.
Germans Can Shorten Lines.
If. for example. the Germans decide to
recognized that they can retire on the
line of Antwerp, Brussels. Namur and
thence behind the Meuse to the position
they now hold at verdun, and that on
such a line, which has been prepared,
they could stand indefinitely. The re-
tirement would give them a very much
shorter line and thus would enable the
troops that they now use on this west
ern front to offer a better resistance.
conceivably the Germans will be
driven back to this line before winter:
far more reasonable is the expectation
that they may be pushed back on the
line of Lille. Valenciennes. Mauheuge,
Hirson and thence behind the Meuse-
that is, at the edge of the French from
tier.
Granted that the Germans could be
forced out of both the lines that have
been mentioned. they could still retire
river, holding Liege, Namur, Givet and
the eastern bank of the river upstream
to .Verdun. Behind this, again. is the
line of the Ourthe. from Liege south on
Thionville and Metz. In each of these
positions they would hold extremely ad-
lvantageous lines and each retreat would
actually shorten their front and dimin-
ish the number of men required to hold
the front.
If the allied calculations are correct
and German manpower is beginning to
fail. the gradual diminution of the sup
ply of men will not necessarily bring a
German collapse, because there is a
chance to shorten the lines Now ex-
actly the same situation exists upon the
eastern frontier. the Vistula river Of
fering much the same opportunity for
a stand as the Meuse. retreat in the
east would also shorten the line ma
terially.
Peace Next Yearp
Eliminating the nossihilitv of com-
plete collapse, which is not to be fore
seen in any period as short as twelve
months, Germany should, then, taking
the military aspect, be able to keep
the war on enemy soil not only all Of
this year, but most, II not all, of the fol-
lowing She will, then, not be in a
position where she will be compelled by
any military situation to make peace
on her enemies terms, even il Austria
grows weaker or is put out of the con-
f1ict altogether. She would doubtless
be willing to make peace. in such con-
ditions, on any basis that did not re-
quire enormous sacrifices.
But it is at this point that the mill
tary phase merges into the economic
in these columns, ! suggested that if
the enemies of Germany were unable
to make any progress before winter
IL the deadlock of last May continued;
then a treaty of peace on the basis OF
status quo ante might result This
opinion was sharply criticised in france
and Great Britain, but 1t was crltl-
cised on the ground that great chahse
was inevitable. This change has no"
come. II the allies have won no de-
cisiye victory as yet, their successes on
all fronts have convinced them that
they at last have the measure OF thelr
foe and that time will give them COM
plete victory
Change in View Of Terms.
Now. with the feeling that victory is
assured there has come a marked
change in the view of the terms OF
peace that will be imposed upon Ger
many Germany's very uccess IN mon
ilizing her own nation. her eNtraofoi-
nary skill, resource and genius IN or
sanitation have awakened the rival ma
tions of the world to the extent OF Ier
man menace to their own existence anu
thew are now resolved that they VIII
continue the war until the menace is
abolished.
Take an example: In her great cam,
paiens Germany has actually wrecked
the Industrial regions of Belgium, OF
France and of Russia. She mas llter-
ally burned the factories ana transport
ed the machinery to her nome prov
inces. If peace were to come today,
Germany would be the only one OF the
great powers on the continent who are
fighting whose industrial estapnsh-
ment was intact. Even austria mas
suffered through the invasions of Ga
licia While Germany put her factories
to work to supply the markets or the
world. France, Belgium. Poland would
have to restore their factories purchase
their machinery and begin again.
A treaty of peace, then, that le1t
things territorially as they were In 1914
would mean on the economic side rea!
victory for Germany. who. II she had
not been able to occupy her neighbor's
house, had burned 1t down. Now. this
is exactly what the nations which are
fighting Germany do not mean shall
happen. They are resolved that Ger
many shall not be able to establish the
fact that she can, when she chooses, in
wade her industrial rivals lands, de-
stroy their Industrial machinery and
then retire to her own soil without SUI
ferinE any other penalty than the costs
of the war. while they have to bear
both the costs of the war, on their side,
and the costs of rebuilding their plants.
Lorraine Iron.
Further than this, the German sue
cess in the early part of the war dis
closed German determination to an
mex the industrialized districts of
France. Belgium and Poland The great
iron deposits OF France are within
sight of the German frontier about
Briey. northwest of Metz. In 1870 Ger
many took n Jar1A norffou of tha Ixor-