The Washington times., 1916-01-22
PAYING FOR THE WAR

Mr.. Garet Garrett, writing from
Berlin to the New York Times, pre-
sents thought-invoking picture of
Germany in war times; of Germany
paying the bills and mortgaging the
future for what she cannot pay; of
German financial authority contem-
plating the future unafraid, and in
sisting that all will be well.
Germany is not giving. away its
gold in order to buy things from
abroad. Rather, it is boarding the
gold as a basis for credit after tn ID,
war, when it will be worth in terms
of credit several times what it is
now worth in terms of supplies. AT
the bottom of the German concep-
ton of the post-bellum problem is
the complete confidence that great
indemnities will be exacted from the
defeated enemies of Germany. There
is no uncertainty on this point; even
the most enlightened economists,
sociologists. publicists, assume this
as both major and minor premise in
their syllogism.
Assuming all this, they are able
to present an interesting view of the
thing that will take place after the
war. Germany will cease to be the
impoverished nation, struggling to
meet interest charges due in London,
Amsterdam, New York, Barcelona,
Copenhagen. Instead, Germany will
be the creditor nation, drawing in
terest payments semi-annually from
the financial centers of the world.
Supremely confident of this, su-
premely assured that in such cir
cumstances her economic rehabilita-
tion will be easy and certain, Ger
many is stalking the last mark and
pfennig on the outcome. 1t is a
magnificent gamble; so splendid that
Germany, reveling in the seeming
prosperity that initiation has pro-
duced, is perfectly assured that no
other nation can throw the dice with
quite such noble recklessness.
But is Germany quite right? Is
she, in truth, the only country that
dares gamble grandiosely in the fu-
lures of empire? Is her project bet
ter calculated to command confidence
than that of France, digging into her
stocking and selling the things she
honestly owns in order to pay cur
rent bills? Or is it better than
that of Britain, which is paying out
real gold in order to maintain real
credit with all the world?
Germany, if we are to believe the
very friendly analysis of Mr.. Gar
rett, is dealing in futures. She deals
in them with the cheerful confidence
that her stocks are certain to go up,
not down. 1t is wide margin. The
allies are dickering on the cash
basis.
1t is one Of the maxims of the
stock exchange that the man who
buys stocks, on the basis of 100 per
cent cash, is not speculator, never
gets great profts-and never goes
"broke." Germany is dealing on a
narrow margin; sure that her shares
will rise, and taking no thought of
what may happen if she loses.
1t is peculiarly difficult to under
stand how Germany can take this
view, considering what happened to
her after the war with France. That
war was a sweeping German sue
cess. France paid the great indem-
nifty charged against her, and what
happened?
1t has been the well-nigh univer-
sal testimony that the payment of
the indemnity induced an era of
thrift, enterprise, and serious mind
edness in France, which in the end
was worth more to that country
than the billion dollars of gold which
was shipped away to Germany. On
the other hand, receipt of that vast
largess induced an epoch of specula-
ton, imitation, recklessness, and
megalomania in Germany, that ulti-
mately brought disaster.
Assume that Germany collects