The Washington herald., 1916-01-09
World Trade War to Come After Peace
May Drag y. S. Tariff Into the Vortex


game basis as they lay down for their
own members. And IT, as Is advocated
on both sides, export as well as import
duties be imposed. II will be impossible
for both sides to permit free export of
raw material to America
The reason both groups cannot let down
their bars in favor OF the great friendly
neutral power Is that the manufacturers
and food producers Of each group will be
seriously affected by the restrictions set
up by the other. And IL American manu-
facturers were permitted freely to draw
materials from both sides. and to send
their exports to all nations as before the
great war, II would be impossible for the
crippled and restricted manufacturers of
England or Germany to compete with
them America would rise to undreamed-
Of wealth at the expense of impoy erished
Europe.
The United States will then be faced
by the problem as soon as commerce Is
resumed with all nations, whether TO join
one side or the other or TO try to dicker
with both sides to reach an agreement
which viii permit trade to be carried on
as before the war. II IL is decided to
come into customs union. an examina-
tion of the trade statistics before 1914
will show clearly that America must pick
the entente. But our whole tariff system
Of international politics. for bargaining
over tariffs will be a necessary prelude
to the signing of an agreement. Enough
has been said Of a speculative nature to
snow that. with the treak OF peace,
America will have to throw OF at once
her present attitude of aloofness and
plunge into the greatest trade turmoil
the modern world has ever known.
Three experts with whom l discussed
tE NaEW.
quote them In other connections de-
clined to ''meddle" by Offering advice.
but all three agreed substantially with
the views expressed above. And all three
professed inability even to guess the
answer to my question. will this world
wide trade war benefit or injure Amert-
can commerce? The most illuminating
reply 1 extracted was from a cabinet
minister of an entente power, who re-
marked. That depends on how good
Ybarsainers You have in Washington.
Organizations at Work.
NJ. Raymond College de Weerdt, Sec
retary of the Belgian ti-Pangerman
League. had Travelled in all the allied
countries organizing the coming trade
war-among commercial bodies. He names
the following organizations already at
work planning how to resume business
without Teutonic markets. and advising
the government departments which
everywhere are studing the problem Of
boycott or prohibltive tariffs:
In Great Britain, the Anti-German
Union and Anti-German League.
In Russia, the Chamber of Commerce,
a government body, and the Auxiliary
League of Petrograd which is helping
the government experts.
In France, the National League for
the Defense Of French Interests, the
Anti-German Club. the National Anti
German League, the Commercial As
sOciation OF Exporters.
In Italy, the Anti-German League of
Genoa.
OF Belgium. the Anti-PangerTnan
League, founded before the wans the Bel
gian Anti-German League in Paris; the
League of Patriots. the National Bel
gian Economic Counsel, and the Belgian
Committee for Commerce with the allies,
an in London. y
, NJ. de Weerdt also furnishes interesting
statistics to prove that the Allied Gus
toms Union can ruin German commerce.
I regret being unable to obtain similar
detailed figures giving the claims of the
Zollverein, but German economists would
undoubtedly say that NJ. de Weerdt's
/ figures are worthless. since they apply
to the pre-war era, while the ZollYerein
VIII make Germany lndependent OF trade
with her enemies.
The annual statistics of the German
empire for 1912, NJ. de Weerdt says. show
that Germanys imports amounted to
10, SIS, 900 marks. OF this sizeable sum
countries now at war with Germany
contributed 4,766 100000 and the United
States and South America 35s5, 900, 900
marks. The remaining imports came from
present allies and adjoining countries
now neutral. The empires total exports
! in 1912 were worth 10.0e1, ,0O0, 900 marks, OF
which 37Os, 100000 marks went TO coun-
tries now hostile and 1855, 900 900 marks
to the two American continents
Germany's Potential Exports.
From these figures NJ. de weerdt draws
the conclusion that Germany has left
not more than $3.50, 900, 900 marks Of po-
tentiaI exports and 2,47s, 1000 900 marks of
imports with its allies or accessible neu-
trail countries"
own use before the war, Germany OBJ
tained more than half her food from
countries now hostile, and eleven
twelfths Of 1t from her enemies and the
two Americas, the latter sending her l.
$4,000 tons of eatables. All but 1ss, 900
tons Of fodder out of 2,64S,000 tons i'm
ported in 1872 came from countries now
hndCCesslOleS nCLuQlnS l,fSl,UOO tons from
the Americas. And the United States
sent nearly all of the '492, 900 tons of tex
tiles imported from the Americas in 1872,
hostile countries sent ~, 900 tons and the
allies and bordering neutrals only ~
900 tons.
After citing the fact that the trade of
German ports, which in 1872 reached
80, 10000 tons, has now been wiped out,
NJ. de Weerdt reached the following COM
forting conclusion: These statistics
prove that we dispose of the economic
wealth Of Germany
! In the opinion of observers here, the
German government, in inaugurating the
Central European solution" as inspired
articles in the press of the Central EN-
piTes call the scheme outlined above to
combat the economic weapons Of the
entente, has practically thrown over the
Agrarian or Junker class which has
hitherto ruled Prussia. .s
II this assumption Is correct. the landed
proprietors will doubtless protest most
vigorously when the agreement comes be-
fore the Reichstag. Free trade with Aus
tria-Hungary. and later with Turkey and
Bulgaria would be a cruel blow to the
Agrarians, because Prussia has hitherto
hoorned fha Of 70