The Birmingham age-herald., 1916-03-28
Warns Nation to Be Pre- pared for Heavy Falling
 Off of Exports
LEADERS PREDICT
 SOME BIG CHANGES
Munitions Makers Are Still Placing Big Orders for Materials as Though End Were Not
 in Sight
By HOLLAND

By HOLLAND
 New York, March 27.-(SpeciaI) )-The latest of the communications made by Judge B. H. Gary, chairman of the United States Steel corporations board, contains no intimation that he is of the opinion that the war will end much more speed fly than is commonly believed to be possi- ble. Friends of Judge Gary have for some weeks suspected that he may have changed his view and that he is not now looking for as speedy termination Of the war as he did late in the autumn of last year.
 Judge Gary. however, does make refer ence to the end of the war by saying that the United States must be prepared for a heavy falling off in export trade at the end of the war and also for a great decrease in buying due to the impairment of the buying ability of other nations.
 Since the first of the year, many state- ments have been made-almost all of them to members of trade organizations -intimating, as Judge Gary did, that we must be prepared for swift and very great changes in our commercial industrial and ACiebtiOliS dllti lHe war IS onQeQ. Some have gone so far as to intimate that one of these changes will be impressively demonstrated by the establishment of New York city as the money market cen- ter of the world, taking the place of Lon lon.
 Diligent inquiry among some of those who are looked upon as leaders, in the thot aimed which would indicate what these 'hanges are likely to be, makes it clear hat nobody has anything more than a general and somewhat vague opinion re- 'pecting these changes. That there will pc changes, all admit What these changes are to be no one seems able to say.
 WORLDS MONEY
 It has remained chiefly for those who 10 not have important relations to any # the large financing that has been and s now under way to predict that one ef- ect of the war will be the permanent po- 'ition of New York city as the worlds money market center. It is apparent to hose who have asked some of the finan- 'ial leaders if this is possible that not any # them Is considering the future status of New York city so far as the world s l iiOiiSy CCillCl Is COuCcTuGQ All lIldL LHe | eally strong financial leaders are now ioing is the regular work day by day. | f, by and by, work of this kind does per- establish dollar exchange in place of pound sterling exchange-which S another way of saying that New York s the worlds money center-that ex- ,hange will come not because our finan- 'ial leaders have been working to secure t, but in the natural order of things. | f~,~ | 11 L went dollar exchange will be maintained i nd If our export trade and our financial 1 id to other nations are of magnitude, 1 hen dollar exchange will not only be but will be steadily in reased. Y,
 Nevertheless, it is very doubtful | whether supremacy with respect to the worlds money market can be wrested rom London, and some are inclined to hink that it would not be especially | worth while if this were done. With l American capital going into South Amer ca, into Canada and into Africa, there 5 no doubt that much of the machinery f paying bills will be represented by ex- hange drawn in terms of dollars
 WHEAT AND COTTON
 Occasionally the comment was made, in eply to inquiries that after the war is ilueu there IS llheIy tO p0 greatly ue- | reased demand for American wheat and greatly increased demand for Ameri- an cotton. The best authorities. among hem James J. Hill, are persuaded that he demand for American wheat will con inue and increase, and that there is no anger of an over-supply of this cereal. t is probable, however, that some of the ountries across the sea will be greatly in i eed of American cotton, and those who eem to be the best informed are of the pinion that the demand for wheat and | or cotton will be, relatively speaking, qually strong for a long time to come.
 Some who have returned from recent | isits to the south are inclined to think hat the experience of the farmers of the outh in 1915, which was very gratifying | nd was due to a diversity in crop culti- ation, may persuade the farmers in that ection that it may be just as well to cul- ivate little less cotton and little more rain.
 THE WAR ORDERS
 Anyone who has travelled through those arts of New England where wage earn rs by the thousands are occupied in munitions of war has had isible demonstration of one of the req ons why the New England railroads find themselves congested with freight traf- c. The managers of these roads do not xpect that there will be any falling off | T shipments of munitions of war from New Haven, Waterbury. Hartford and other cities even though he war should be ended at an early day. The great New Haven manufacturers of munitions are so confident that orders for hese commodities will be maintained for
 long time to come that they have just ompleted very large financing in order Q be able to obtain an abundant supply f raw material.
 Managers of other American industries which have been occupied to their ca- acities in manufacturing munitions of var admit that there is no cessation of rar orders and that all the indications oint to maintenance of them for sev- ral years In addition to that, 1t is pre- umed that the United States government yill speedily be in the market seeking i o purchase or to make contracts for very arge amounts of war material.
 Occasionally the comment is heard that fter the war is ended the United States vil be found greatly occupied with ex- ending trade in South America, Russia nd Canada, and while there is no differ nee of opinion respecting the greater im- ortance Of our Canadian trade there IS ome difference respecting the value Of ur trade with South America as com- 'ared with our trade with Russia. No natter which is the large trade with ach of these countries. the trade with