New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-01-02
By CHARLES GRIFFITH MOSES,
yice-Prcsident J. Romano Brown 20


yice-Prcsident J. Romano Brown 20
For tho hrst time in some yenrs the
average real estate man Is in position
20 review with satisfaction the market
conditions for the closing Of the year,
and 10 view the outlook for the coming
one with confidence and enthusiasm
not born Of misplaced optimism
Practically every department OF the
hus.nen shows q distinct and marked
Improvement over tho situation year
ago. and there Ia no reason TO DOUBT
that New York City real estate Is 70
see a period Of good times, which IS
more than Welcome after the lean years
Just passed
While do not look TO anything ap-
preaching boom such as we mad IN
1908 and 1905, there IS every indication
that tho coming year will close with
real estate on n healthier, more normal
and more substantial basis than has
been the case in long while. Ana
this IL no idle guess. made In hopetui
spirit, but Is based on good, SOUND
economic reasoning.
Never in the history Of the world has
so much actual money been centred IN
one place IA is now the case IN New
York Banks, trust companies ana
other financial institutions have more
ready money on hand now than ever
before, and while this condition mas
prevailed for about year, ana mohey
for short time loans has been very
plentiful and at low rate OF interest
during this entire period, 1t mas only
been in the last couple OF months that
there has been any substantial amount
of money available for long time three
or five year mortgage loans at l.
and per cent interest
This money is now coming out IN
large and small sums, and. OF course
it is easy TO see how quickly
plenty of mortgage money stimulates
real estate activity. The most gratity-
ing phase OF this situation is that there
is no danger OF over-stimulation nor
fear OF wild speculation, for good ana
sufficient reasons.
We have lust about closed the chap
ter on a decade which started with a
wild speculative movement in almost all
classes OF real estate, followed by a
period Of ovcrbuilding of business
buildings, tenement and apartment
houses. the shifting Of business centres
both wholesale ard retail; going on
through a series Of seasons OF general
business depression and eliminating IN
the uncertainties naturally incident and
consequent TO the war involving all OF
Europe. -, 3,
We now face a situation which, had
II been made 10 order, could not have
been more promising for the real es-
tate owner. We now feel that what
ever the effect of the war may be, a
far as Europe is concerned, we must
reap most substantial financial benC-
fits therefrom, whether the war ems
shortly or is continued indefinitely.
II the latter condition prevails, we VIII
continue 70 supply food. clothing
horses, motors and all kinds OF war
munitions; and II the former situation
obtains, all OF Europe must look 70 Us
as the only nation able TO supply az
least a substantial part OF the millions
and millions Of dollars worth OF prop
erty destroyed. All this means busi-
ness prosperity for the United states,
with the result Of much money repre-
senting business profits for investment
In New York real estate or mortgages.
And a. q safeguard against one OF
the greatest dangers TO real estate, that
of residential or business space IN eX-
cess of the demand, we find that build
ing material is so high land is possibly
going higher that q general building
movement is practically prohibited. EX-
cept in a few sections, there has been
little new building in the last year
or two, and with our city continually
growing in population and in business,
the oversupply of the past has been abb
sorbed, and doubt if ever before there
was so little vacant rentable space TO
be had az to-day.
In the midtown section, below Twen-
ty-third Street, vacancies are neg
ligiblo factor in almost all the lott and
manufacturing buildings, except those
so old or in such bad condition that
they cannot be made 10 comply with
the various municipal departmental re-
quirements.
In the residential districts. on both