Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1916-10-22

smaller than Mr.. Belloc and his school
assert believe that the war will last
lieve that it will take most of this
| time to exhaust the man power Of the
central powers. But even at the mo-
| ment when the central powers feel the
pinch they can temporarily save their
situation by shortening their lines, go
ing back. for example. in the west to Q
| line from the Dutch frontier through
Liege and Luxembourg to Metz.
only one thing is certain-we can't
say when exhaustion will come, because
We can only guess at the figures OF
casualties. But we can say that 1t
viii come, that 1t will come to tho
weaker party, which is the central al
nance. first, and that 1t will come while
! the opposing alliance has still album
dant supply of men to keep its armies
at the maximum of necessary strength.
Conceivabiy the Germans may win the
war. possibly the allies may win the
; war. but if 1t goes on as 1t is now
going. il 1t turns on battle losses, il it
remains contest of attrition. the ulti-
mate outcome is patent.
Losses of Present Year.
Now, in such space as remains to mo
desire to set forth few more figures.
an estimate oil the cost in casualties Of
| the campaign of the present year-that
is. from January to the end Of October
In this time 1 believe the French have
| lost 100000. 25O.0OO at verdun and
10000 at the Somme and elsewhere:
the taa0s %s1%y and at tine the
Russians. 1.000.oOo. This last is the
German estimate of Russian casualties
| since June. 1t Is high, but 1 accept It,
only stretching it to include the opera,
IN h fnh MT
very expensive. All told, the allies
| have thus lost 100000.
Now as to the central powers: The
German loss at Verdun was not less
than 100000. At the Somme 1t has
been around 100000. Including all other
casualties on the western front. De-
Tending themselves at the Somme the
Germans have lost about half as many
where they were the assailants. they
lost at a similar ratio. On the eastern
and Balkan fronts the German loss has
been not less than 100000, the price Of
checking the Russian drive. All told
the German loss has been 100000. As
for the Austrians, they have lost at
least 10000, including over $4,000
prisoners. mainly to the Russians.
Rapid Rate of Exhaustion.
Now, examine these last figures and
you will see what the results Of the
new allied tactics of pounding have
been, combined with the German fail
ure at Verdun. In about ten months
the Germans and Austrians. who start
ed with a man power, let US say, OF
II, 100000. or 10 per cent of their total
population, have lost 1.750.000 in killed.
wounded and captured. and this Is more
than IA per cent Of their total In the
same time the allies have lost 10000
or rather less than Z per cent Of their
original man power, again applying the
10 per cent rule. In other words, the
rate of exhaustion of the central pow
ers this year has been-twice as great
in relation to their total resources as
that of the allies. 1t is my judgment,
too that the figures l have given are
low for the central powers and high
for their enemies.
Nor does this complete the statement.
We have official Russian figures to
prove that 400 900 prisoners were taken
by the Russians in their great advance,
and these figures were repeated in de-
bates in the Hungarian chamber. We
have the Italian claim Of 10000 pris-
oners taken in their Gorilla drive and
Anglo-French claims. officially made,
of the capture of at least $4,000 Ger
mans at the Somme. Here is loss in
prisoners of not less than $4,000 for
the central powers.
Figures as to Prisoners.
As against this the Germans have
claimed about the same number of
Italian prisoners. taken chiefly in the
Trentine drive. German and Austrian
reports have not claimed more than
100000 Russian prisoners this year.
Thus the loss in prisoners Of the allies
is more than two and a half times less
than that of the central powers. and
their permanent loss by reason Of the
years campaign is thus less than that
of their enemies. Able. because OF
their superior population, to bear much
larger absolute losses than their en-
emies, the allies have actually suffered
losses absolutely. not merely relatively.
smaller.
In our own civil war Grant was the
first Union commander to grasp tho
logic of attrition. He applied 1t un-
hesitatingly; he accepted the RESPONSE
bility for colossal losses that did not
bring any advantage upon the battle
field for many months, because he fore
saw that the time would come when
the south. although it's losses were
smaller than his own. would
not be able to replace the casualties
out of its inferior population. Allied
ogic, strategy. policy are Grants:
they are doing what he did: they are
lighting his kind of a battle with equal
ly great resources in numbers. If not in
material. and with the control Of the
sea and superior financial powers,
which the north possessed. For Ameri-
-t~,h II