The Washington times., 1916-07-14
WAR BUSINESS IN FOREIGN
TRADE

A foreign commerce aggrogAting
imports and exports together
$500, 900, 900 was done by this coun-
try in the fiscal year ended June 80.
The last months figures are esti-
mated from data 50 complete as to
make the totals practically accurate.
Analysis Of the figures makes It
palmer than ever before that when
the war exports are stopped, as most
Of them will be as soon as peace Is
assured, we are liable to have q great
surplus Of imports, an unfavorable
rather than favorable balance Of
trade. -....
The export of strictly war supplies
doubtless reached its apogee in the
business of 1916, and will fall of
from this time forward. Some Of the
figures in this particular phase Of
business are Of the greatest interest.
They show, among other things, the
remarkable industrial mobilization
that was effected, in certain direc-
tions, when this country began to re-
ceive orders that justified going into
this new business. For example:
In the first year Of the war-ended
June 80, 1915-exports of explosives
aggregated only Sal, 000,000. The
huge new plants were being builded
and organized. but production and
expectation did not get into full
swing till the second year. Then the
exports of explosives jumped to
$473, 100000. It is expected that ex-
plosives will continue to be sent in
great quantities as long as the war
lasts, but other munitions are likely
to be sent in constantly decreasing
amounts.
While the exports Of explosives
were multiplied by more than ten,
the sales Of iron and steel gained
from $226, 000, 900 to $61s,0O0, 900
nearly trebled, in fact. It is not SO
certain that at this point the wars
end will see sharp reduction. That
is a matter of opinion. Many au-
thorities believe the demands for iron
and steel for rebuilding Of all kinds
will be so great that for several
years Europe will prefer to buy here
in considerable quantities rather
than to wait for home production.
On the other hand, the iron works Of
Britain and Germany have been Or
ganized for an immense production,
under stress Of war needs, and they
may be able to turn their capacity to
the business Of peace at such a rate
as to turn out practically all the steel
they will need as fast as it can be
used. This will continue problematic
until actual experience brings the
answer. Much will doubtless depend
on the financial capacity Of the coun-
tries now at war to resume the works
of peace in something like . normal
way.
Horses and mules worth 500, 000,-
900 were sent awsy in 1916, practi-
cally every one representing war bust
ness. Only 100000 worth were
sent the previous year.
Here, again, comes o question
whether these exports can be con-
tinued after the war. Europe is de-
nuding itself Of horses: it will need
them, just as It will need iron and
steel, for peaceful purposes, but will
it be able to buy them?
When it comes to raw cotton, II
may pretty safely be assumed that
business will gain greatly after the
war. In the last normal year, that
which ended June 80, 1914, we sold
$610, 900, 900 Of cotton. The next
year It dropped to $37e. 000, 900 and
for the year just closed there was q
still further reduction, to 1910, 000,-
900.
A considerable share of this cotton
has been going into explosive manu-
facture; so that the shelves Of the
worlds shops must be very low on
cotton fabrics. There will be need
to restore stocks, and Germany, long
cut off from cotton supplies, will be
out for great amounts, first for her
own uses, and after that to use in
making her great fight to regain the
world trade that the war has cut
off. 1t looks as If the cotton growers
would have something like bo-
nanza.
On the other hand, it must be ex-
pected that exports Of wheat, -four,
and meat will drop after the war,
Meats to the value Of $4,000, 600
were exported in 1914, which grew Ia
$206, 100000 in 1915. and $270, 000,.
600 in 1915.
Before the war our exports Of au.
tomobiles were almost negligible. In
the first war year they rose to $685..
900 900, and in the next year to the
enormous total Of $12s, 0O0, 900. The
wars end is bound to see this item
almost cut of, because Europe will
be too poor to buy cars for pleasure
| and thu War vehirles rooatlv tr,,cLs