Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1916-07-02

fort. But what the French are now
doing is daily reducing the German
effectives before Nerdun at rate
which must be high, although the cost
to themselves is great.
British Thrust on Wide Front.
We may expect that when this Brit
ish thrust comes it will be delivered on
wide front, that it will possibly be
accompanied by heavy. attack
north of Lille. from the Ypres salient
down the Lys valley toward Menin and
Courtrai. threatening Client and the
German communications with Ostend
and Zeebrugge
But the chief blow must come south
OF Lille and from La Bassee to Per-
onne. Here is a front of some fiftv
miles, which, aside from the Vimy
ridge, part of which is in British hands,
oners no considerable natural obstacle
The slope is with the British and they
will advance down hill into the broad
plain OF northern France.
only small advance dozen miles.
would seriously menace Lille and cut
the Lille-Douai railroad: il would take
Jerome and threaten st. Quentin to
the south; il would make the German
position in all of this region from the
use to the sea exceedingly dangerous.
Yet such an advance. if it were to 20
no further. would mean that the great
British effort had failed to accomplish
anything really considerab BILE 1t would
mean that the Germans would be able
TO hold on in France and Belgium until
next spring. for the British will not be
aoIe 10 denver more than one blow this
year. and If 1T does not come until late
July or August the season for opera
lions Will be relatively short.
What to Watch.
Those who are at all interested in the
military situation should devote a lit
tie time to the study of the map of the
part of the western front from the Disc
to the sea. The least trained eve can
easily distinguish the meaning of the
railroad lines that run parallel to the
German front. They can easily UNDER
stand what it would mean il the Brit
ish were able to push east and cut
these lines. The distance Is short, IL is
not greater than the distance covered
by the Russians in recent weeks, but
covering this distance would have a
far greater effect than the Russian
advance because of the situation of the
railway lines. and. for that matter. the
roads as well.
When there does come a report Of
British activity II is well to watch the
oHicial reports for mention of La Bas-
see. Lens. Bapaume and Peronne, as
we'll as Menin and Roulers. north of
Ypres. Unless several of these places
yield promptly to the British attack IL
will be safe to conclude that the drive
has been held at the outset. as all allied
drives have hitherto been held.
If several of these places fall at once
the next step will be an attack upon
Douaf. Cambria and an effort to en-
.volop Lille both from the north and
from the south by movements that
h Lat l~l
Journal. If the British reach Douai
and Cambria, it will then he time to
recognize that they have made a great
advance and that the whole German
line in France is in deadly peril.
If the movement progresses and the
British reach Valenciennes. La Cateau
and even St Quentin, then ii will be
clear that the end of German occupa-
ton in France has come and the real
problem will be whether the Germans
can draw their troops out without large
surrenders and under conditions which
are wholly similar to those faced BY
the Russians in Galicia last year.
Belgium Possibility.
So far I have discussed the situation
in France. 1t remains to say word
about the Belgian possibility. An over
whelming success south of Lille. fol-
lowed by a very rapid advance, such as
Mackensen made in the first days of
his great Galician campaign last sum
mer. would imperil the whole German
situation in western Belgium: it Nigh.
easily mean a retirement behind til
Mouse from Mezieres or Givet to Client.
it might mean retirement behind thu
Mouse as far north as Namur and til
standing between the Sambre and TIL
scheldt on lines that have been pre-
pared. Lastly, there is the final possi-
\bility that IT might involve a retire
ment behind the Meuse from Lieee
through Namur to Mezieres.
So far the Germans have succeeded In
stopping every attack upon their west
ern front within three miles. They
have themselves never been able to
make more, except before Nerdun.
where they have made around six It
is open to doubt whether their lines
can be broken now. after they have
had more than a year and a half ~
fortify them. II is open to doubt
whether a penetration can be made on
a front sufficiently wide to omen a gap
The best informed military observe
wholly disagree on this point TIL
Nerdun failure justifies the school who
doubt. the Russian success supports
those who believe. The debate can be
settled only on the battlefield
Variance of Views.
l say again, have not attempted here
can be broken. Personally I believe the
thing is entirely possible: but far better
informed critics, who are much more quail
He'd TO hold an opinion, assert that the
thing is impossible. But have endeav-
pred to show what would happen If tic
ines should be broken and the successive
phases that the operation would follow as
{ developed.
Unless the British offensive shall t,r,
he Germans out of France save between
he Mouse and the Ardennes il will be a
allure. If it does this. it will do all that
my one can even with great optimism
rope for. II, in addition. ii should free a
portion of Belgium it would be the great
st success of the war and would repay
Britain for all her disappointments and
vaftings. II would also leave Britain.s
lilies little to complain Of. But it is un-
air TO criticise the British for failure to
ct now; they are following the lines of a
trategy which has been devised by all the
lilies In conference. and their own work
8 laid out for them. no, by themselves.
tut by their French and Russian allies in