New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-06-12

There prevails undeniably among the
Allies much optimism. This feeling
comedies with the determinations be-
tween the Western Powers and Russia.
In London the deputation from the
Donna and the Council of State has had
a remarkable welcome. The reception
at the Russian Embassy was the most
brilliant and crowded social scene OF
its kind since the opening of the war.
At the same time there has been
celebrated in Petrograd with official
banquets and stirring oratory the
twenty-fifth anniversary of the founda-
ton Of the Franco Russian alliance.
Most OF us who are now alive well re-
member the fetes of Cronstadt. That
had happened which Berlin had thought
incredible republican France had
joined with the autocratic Russia Of
that day.
Bismarck Prophecy Verified.
II was the beginning of the break
down of Bismarck's marvellous system
of diplomacy, solidly based throughout
upon an underlying determination. de-
spite occasional superficial appear
ances to the contrary. TO maintain good
relations with the Carbon. From that
moment the Iron Chancellor was con-
WINGED in his heart that the policy OF
the young Emperor who had dismissed
the Titan of European craftsmanship
in the nineteenth century would lead
to war under the worst conditions for
Germany.
Despite the great battle of Skag-
erak, the Kaiser's naval policy has
been a supreme failure. The deepest
word of profound statecraft that Bis
marck ever said was uttered after his
fall: Don't build the second strongest
navy; build the third strongest"
The iron Chancellor saw that such
policy. while not directly awakening or
autagonizing England. would probably
enable Germany to hold the balance OF
sea power as between Britain and her
nearest competitor. II was the advice
of the man whose diplomacy had done
more than Moltke's armies for the
making of German unity; but that adj
vice was unheeded. Then. and for long
afterward, the young Emperor was
possessed by the pictures of his own
brain and had too ardent a confidence
in his own all-sufiicing genius.
German Reckonings Wrong.
Now the German fleet, after its
foray, is again locked up. The vitais
of Germany are wrung BY the effects of
the Allies sea power. There Is a GER
tain increase l do not make too much
Of it Of dissension. depression, mis-
giving in Germany, as well as OF hard
ship and deprivation.
bismarck would have challenged
either Russia or Britain in the last re-
sort had he felt himself compelled to
make another war, but never both to-
gether.
Now. contrary to all the reckonings
at Potsdam in the fatal summer OF
1914 reckonings checked again and
again, until the vivid prospect OF
sweeping Europe seemed almost
mathematical certainty Germany mas
TO face a long and grinding struggle.
The conditions are worse still In
Austria. where drastic mobilization is
carried out among Germans and
Magyars up to the age of tifty-fve and
among the Slavs up TO the age Of sixty.
l. is the fact, however grim the
thought may seem. that Vienna and
Budapest are seeking to reduce, If pos
sible. the proportions of Slays IN the
Hapsburg monarchy
The optimistic view of the Allies
considers that in spite of these levies
the Central Empires are already feel
ing the strain on man-power. Accord
ing to this view, they must henceforth
economic numbers. Their policy now
must be TO stand on the defensive, and
to try to keep their lines unbroken all
round up 10 the end OF the war, no
matter how long it lasts.
In short, despite Herr Won Beth
mann-Iollweg's bold words about a