The Washington herald., 1916-10-23

ing gives up absolute confidence as to
what is going to hapen. That the allies
will win no one, in short, now regards
as doubtful. Nor is it less SO, to the
Germans, whose eyes are opening little
by little to the light, and the haughtiest
and most obstinate of whom can hardly
henceforth have any false notions of
their coming fate"
NJ. Pichon frankly admitted that France
and Russia could not have stood against
Germany without the help OF England,
saying. Save for England's intervention
the German enterprise would have sue
ceeded; the small states would have dis
appeared politically from the map of
Europe, some OF them would have disap-
peared even geographically; France and
Russia would not have been able to
maintain successfully an unequal strug-
gle against a military power formidably
weapOned and equipped, organized during
the course of half a century for this
very war, and shrinking from no atrocity
in order to realize its designs of death and
destruction.
Decisive events have happened since
that day on which I had the conversa-
tion that I have recalled with the present
war minister of the British government.
The Russian victories on the eastern
front, the Italian victories on the Aus
trian front, Roumania's intervention the
victories of the British and French armies
on the SOmme-thiS time 1t Is not a mat
ter of fleeting successes without serious
consequence, as in the sporadic offensives
of last year, nor of attacks directed
against an inhnItesimal part of the
enemy's lines; it is the first stage In the
execution OF a methodiC plan, drawn up In
concert among our army chiefs, and be-
ing resolutely carried out from the North
Sea to the Carpathlans, and from the
Belgian front to the Polish front-a plan
which cannot fail to succeed because 1t
Is backed up by an overwhelming su-
periOrity in means of action.
Applied Self to Task.
For its undertaking It was necessary
to have such etfectives, guns. engines
Of war and munitions, that the resistance
OF the Prussian General Stan would be
pOwerless against them: that was the
task to which Great Britain particularly
applied herself, and 1t Is especially from
this point of view that she has the
right to claim a capital share in the
decisive work that is being accom-
pllshed."
1t is interesting to compare with the
predictions made by Mr. Lloyd George
and NJ Pichon as to the duration
of the war the opinions of other Eu-
rOpean experts German authorities, 50
far as IS known in London or Paris, are
silent on this engrossing subject at pres
cnt, although nearly year ago Major
Mohraht, the distinguished critic OF the
Tageblatt. was credited with the remark
that 1t would end this winter.
Hilaire Belloc. the critic of Land and
Water" thinks the struggle Will last IN
to 1915
COL RepinctOn. military correspondent
OF the London Times, and the most IA
NOUS authority in England, says, 1T will
end when Germany is crushed-191S. 1919
or 1920.
NJ. Marcel Hutin, the best informed Of
the Paris critics. confidently expects the
defeat OF Germany before the end OF the
fourth campaign, that is before Novem-
Der, 1917
The odds offered by Lloyd's on peace
indicate that financial and business circles
arc siro there will be peace this win
ter, but do not expect the war to last
into 1918. The insurance rates Of this
famous agency work out to odds of 5 to
offered that there will be no peace before
March / 1871 . to l against peace before
June l. and to 1 that peace will be de-
clared by November l.