New Britain herald., 1916-01-06
URGES CAUTION TO
 HOLD PROSPERITY
Judge Gary Issues Imitation Warn- ing-TellS Of Iron and Steel Trade

New York, Jan. 6.-Elbert H. Gary, chairman of the U. s. Steel Corporation yesterday issued a state ment dealing in detail with prevailing prosperous conditions in the steel and iron trade, together with a fore cast of the future of that industry.
 Reference is made to the European conflict in it's worldwide application to economic conditions. Judge Gary calls attention to the dangers of over- production or imitation by manufac- turers and bankers, resulting from over confidence and the aid of the government is revoked for adequate protection of the countrys industries.
 No Reason For Complaint.
 In part the statement says:
 'It will be admitted by all manu- lecturers of these products there is no reason for complaint at the present time as to the volume or urgency of the demand nor in most cases, the pri- ces received, notwithstanding costs of production have been larger dur ing the last few years because. of in creases in wages, freight charges, etc.
 "The rate of production at present in the United States is about 38,O0O,- OOO tons of pig iron and about 41,- 100000 tons of steel ingots per an- mum. This compares with a rate of 19,OO0,OO0 tons of pig iron and l6,- 100000 tons of steel ingots one year ago and 33,5O0,O0O tons of pig iron and 35,0OO,O00 tons of steel ingots at high water mark in the year 1913 for pig iron and 1912 for ingots.
 Prices May Advance.
 Prices could easily be materially advanced and perhaps will be, though I believe as to some of the commodi- ties, at least, they are high enough. It is not certain they can be con- trolled for the reason that the re- Qurements of purchasers, and the of fers they make, fix the prices to a large extent
 Apparently about seventy-five per cent. of the sales is for domestic con- sumption and the balance for foreign use, directly or indirectly. The in fiuence of the export sales upon do- mestic sales I do not undertake to say.
 Evidence of Prosperity.
 Conditions pertaining to this in dustry reflect more or less, those of
 
 dication of the general situation Certainly there are evidences which cannot reasonably be questioned of great prosperity.
 ''It is not my purpose to discuss the reasons for these satisfactory condi- lions. They exist; and it now seems probable they may continue for 1 m onths to come.
 May Draw Analogy.
 When there is possible danger 1 ahead the locomotive engineer is di- l rected by. his rules, formal instruc- l ,ions and signs to proceed with eau ton; and sometimes to stop, look and l listen. We may draw an analogy, I l would offer words of caution. We are l proceeding at rapid pace. There l is great expansion at present. l fear there is great expansion at pres ent. I fear there is great imitation. Some of the circumstances surround | ing the financial and industrial world are peculiar and not justified. There will be jars and jolts when eyes are opened and things become normal. ] We ought to stop, ponder reason. We shall be all the better for it. Legiti | mate enterprise and progress will be benefited if we read all the signs, con- sider the past and reflect upon the future. ~"
 Great Our Opportunities.
 What of the future? Who can 1 say with any feeling of certainty? It 1 may be very dark and desperate. It l will thus be in Europe and we in America will feel the effects to a greater or lesser extent. The destruc- 1 ton of billions upon billions of prop l erty in any country must necessarily 1 affect, in some degree, all other coun- | tries. Economic conditions in the | United States may and should be good l in the long future, with the usual in opportunities.
 1 believe the war of Europe will 1 not be so long prOtracted as many, 1 if not the most of men, predict. This opinion is based principally upon two grounds. In the first place, it seems apparent that little, if any, benefit to any belligerent country or to the world at large can result from the war except and unless it be the firm tribunal for the settlement of all in ternationa1 differences; one that is universal and practical; and whose decrees are enforceable; one that will prevent the prolongation of wars in the future. This can be created. If so, negotiations for peace and for such results should be opened at once and puShad tO a con nc1uSiOn There