South Bend news-times. (South Bend, Ind.) 1913-1938, 1916-01-03


and forced attention upon the new.
In place OF tariff. banking and other
problems we now have such que
stion as preparedness. revenue. ship
! ping. etc, all OF which can be traced
directly TO the European struggle
l The coming year, 1915. viii be a
presidential year and consequently a
year OF much talk and little action in
the legislature. but in spite Of this
the political outlook so far as busl-
ness is concerned is less disturbing
/ than a year ago. The commercial
outlook is also encouraging. The
year 1915 proved a year Of big crops:
/ the largest and most profitable on
record The long era Of prosperity
which American farmers have en-
/ joyed is assured for another season.
\ Even i'm the south, where the output
/ Of cotton showed a large decrease.
/ growers are likely 10 secure a larger
alue through the nearly doubling
/ Of prices. Interior merchants are
| consequently anticipating good bust
ness for at least the first half Of the
new year, and have had 10 buy freely
\ for the replenishment Of empty
! shelves. In the east. business has
| I cen materially aided by marvellous
activity in the steel industry. melted
at first by war orders. but intensified
and prolonged by what is far more
substantial an awakened home con-
| sumption. Many important buyers,
| especially the railroads. had post
poned orders as a matter of econo-
my. With the turn of the tide, this
| accumulation Of business came out
with a rush; and the consequence is
/ present record breaking activity in
/ the steel trade, which thus pre-
! serves its reputation as a reliable
| business barometer. American rail-
roads have also benefited by these
| conditions; gross and net earnings
| for the last quarter of 1915 showing
a most pronounced and encouraging
| turn for the better. In the indus
trial world the revival has been more
marked than elsewhere. The causes
were largely those just named. but
the war has been a powerful stimu
| liant in this particular field.
7 The financial situation successful
/ ~ adjusted itself to war conditions;
our banks are sound, and there has
ben phenomenal expansion in loans
without imperilling the limits OF
safety. thanks TO the successful
working Of the new banking system
and the flood of gold pouring in from
| Europe amounting in tie last twelve
months to about $3.50, 600. Mon
ey is plentiful and we'll distributed,
as shown by activity in the retail
stores on the one hand and a good
| Investment demand on the other.
| The greatest danger to American
prosperity at this time is excessive in
| flation arising from the plethora of
| funds and the war, and a special OBJ
| legation is placed upon our bankers
TO restrain such tendencies. IT is es-
/ timated that during the year we
have taken back fully $1,0OO.000,-
/ 90 of our securities held abroad.
v lille we have granted loans to the
amount of about $500. 100000. In
addition we have taken back large
sums of other obligations which cam
not be traced. so that il is safe to
| say that foreign investments here,
J which at one time amounted TO $4,000
| coo. 900. have been lessened fully S3.-
! 500. 900, 900 showing a most remark
able investing or absorbing power in
the United States. BY means of these
/ transactions we have greatly reduced
our obligations abroad; our remit
tances in the future vii be less and
we will be TO that extent better able
to meet our domestic requirements
/ for capital at home. II the war has
done. us no other good, IL has proved
and fully awakened US TO a realiza
/ ton Of our financial independence.
Henceforth we will be less and less
/ a borrowing nation, while our abil-
! ity TO lend abroad will correspond
! ingly increase. The net result will
( be to immensely advance New York
as an international financial center.
I.ondOn's pre-eminence in this re-
spect is not likely To be seriously
shaken by the war. but New York
promises to soon become a good
/ second.
Abnormal Foreign Trade.
Abnormal conditions continue in
foreign trade. During the u months
ending Nov. 80 our exports aggre-
gated S3.437. 100000. or $1.3S6,OOO,-
600 more than a year ago. Imports
during the same period reached ST.
$50, 900, a decrease of S12S, 0OO,-
0OO. The excess of exports for this
period was $1.707. 100000. and it is
estimated that the excess for the
year ending Dec. 81 will approach
100000. 900. This phenomenal ex-
pansiOn was chiefly due TO larger
shipments of foOdstuffs and NUM-
tions. the latter including anything
flom explosives and firearms to
mules and automobiles. 1t has been
practically offset by loans, credits,
gold imports and foreign sales of
securities, etc. For several months
the exchange situation was decidedly
serious and caused a marked de-
probation in the pound sterling. AS
a result. however. OF the Anglo
French loan and the recent mobili-
zatiOn of British credit, exchange has
greatly improved and now appears
To be well under control OF London
bankers. so that no further crisis
such as was seen last summer is like
~ TO be again experienced The