The log cabin Democrat., 1916-10-16
Conway, Arkansas, MONDAY, October Is, 1916
SILENT VOTER TO
 DECIDE ELECTION HUGHES MAKES NO GAIN
Eastern Papers Agree Wilson Stock Advancing-"Big Money"
 for Hughes.
By k. E. Gates.

By k. E. Gates.
 Washington, Oct 16-How the si- lent, mysterious and potential "inde- pendent" vote is cast on November 7 will determine the presidential cleo tion. By this independent vote is not meant the Moose" vote, but refer ence is made to that element in the American electorate that is quiet and elusive throughout national cam. paigns but on election days is felt as a determinate factor in every doubtful state.
 As yet nothing has transpired to inticate the trend of this great silent, independent vote. Thus far it has eluded appraisal. In none of the re- cent state primary elections did it reveal itself. 1t does not show in any straw vote" figures or pre- election forecasts. This influential vote is not silent because it is timid or afraid. It is not mysterious be- cause it seeks to mystify. It is not elusive because it is fugitive. It ia vote cast by members of the cleo torate who acknowledge allegiance to no political party, who subscribe to no arbitrarily prescribed article of political faith. It is vote cast by those whose opinions are formed as the campaign progresses and the can didates commend themselves or fail to commend themselves to popular favor.
 It is this potential independent vote, more than anything else, that screens the result of the election No vember and makes impossible its forecast.
 There is no shrewdness, no smart ness in the now trite statement that the Taft Roosevelt vote or 1912 com bined against President Wilson in 1916 will elect Candidate Hughes president of the United States. That conclusion inevitably follows puny effort in addition. But where is au- thority for the statement that there is going to be a complete coalition of the Taft Roosevelt vote of 1912? Not all Taft Republicans will vote for Hughes, not all Roosevelt Moosers will vote for Hughes. In Washington and Oregon the drift of the old Taft vote is to Wilson. Mixed in with that Taft Roosevelt vote is the silent, mys- terious, independent vote which had much to do with electing Woodrow Wilson in 1912.
 It is not settled that Wilson will get this vote in the fullness of its strength, but if he should be fortu- nate enough to win it over, his cleo tion will be assured. This independ- ent vote is negligible in states like Vermont and New Hampshire, Ten nessee and Mississippi; but in New York, Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, New Jersey, Minnesota and Wisconsin it is formidable. It is formidable in any doubtful state in a national cleo tion
 Politicians gifted with the most penetrating vision have tried for weeks to get line on this independ- ent vote, but as yet none of them have been able to observe its trend. Wherefore the forecaster who would call the result of the November cleo tion must be able to predetermine upon which side in the contest the silent. independent voters in the doubtful states are going to throw the weight of their support.
 Three weeks before the election finds the stock of President Wilson and the Democratic party advanc- ing. No account is here taken of the situation in those states where the president is known to be holding his own." For a candidate for president simply to be holding his own' in states whose electoral votes are nee essary to his election is devoid of consolation. It shows a stationary condition of public sentiment if it is indicative of anything. But for a presidential candidate to be growing, though there may be room for con siderable growth, shows a favorable condition.
 It will be observed that in the straw vote" results announced today President Wilson's candidacy is de- scribed as gaining" in the doubtful states. In this fact Democrats will find incentive to increased cheerful ness. Take New York, for example, where the Herald's straw vote" for the week just closed shows Wilson gaining and Hughes holding his own"
 In the middle west virtually the same state of sentiment is shown. For the Republican campaign man agers to claim Ohio by only 30,0O0 amounts to an admission of defeat in tha tstate, for the reason that it gave