New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-09-11
The Vote in Maine.


Both parties look to Maine to-day for
verdict which will forecast with more or
less certainty the result of the Presiden-
tial election. A study of the returns for
many wears back will show that Names
September vote has rarely failed to reflect
political tendencies at work the country
over. The only absolutely misleading YER
dict recorded was that Of $780, when a
Democratic Governor was chosen in Sep
TENDER, while both the state and the coun-
try went Republican two months later.
1t is admitted on all sides that the de-
termining factor in this years Presidential
election is the extent to which the Repub-
lican and Progressive parties have been
reconsolidated. Maine is in position to
test Tie success of the amalgamation move
ment. She was the one New England
state in which in 1912 the Progressive
vote exceeded the Republican vote. Roose-
velt's total was 48,493, Taft's 26,545.
Even in 1914 a strong Progressive organi-
cation remained. A Progressive nominee
for Governor got 1925 votes, and through
that diversion a Democratic Governor
slipped into office-with a plurality Of
S,177 over his Republican opponent.
The Republican vote of 5S,S62, added to
the Progressive vote of 1925, would have
given a total of 77,O87. The successful
Democratic candidate had 62,039 votes
leaving him in a minority of 15,048 He
is a candidate for reelection to-day, and
his success or failure depends on the per-
centage of Progressive votes which he can
attraction the extent to which he can
Illustrate the Progressive re-
union.
The Democratic party has all the advan-
tage in the conditions under which to-day's
test vote is taken. 1t has always been
much stronger in state elections than in
national elections. Local issues, like the
enforcement or non-enforcement of the
prohibition law, have benefited it in state
weaker. In 1912 the Democratic candi-
date for Governor received 67,748 votes
The Republican-P Progressive candidate-a
joint nominee-received 71,043. But two
months later Wilson received only 51,113
votes, against 1908 for Taft and Roose-
welt combined.
There have been disturbing local and
personal issues in this campaign. Senator
johnson is much more popular in the state
than President Wilson is, and he may be
reelected in spite of his unvarying sup
port in Washington Of the Administra-
tons policies.
Republicans will be entirely satisfied if
the result to-day shows a real uniication
of the Republican and Progressive parties.
The chief aim Of the President and his
campaign managers so far has been to en-
list Progressive support and thus over
come the natural preponderance of re-
united Republican organization. With all
his advantages as a candidate in 1912 Mr..
Wilson polled only 6,292,6 votes in the
country-less than Bryan polled in 1908,
1900 or 1896. The combined Progressive
and Republican vote in 1912 was 1911 $50
almost exactly what the Republican vote
was IN lJOo ana IJO4. II Ine StdtuS quo
existing before 1912 is now restored by
anything like a complete Republican-Pro-
gressve amalgamation Mr.. Wilson's
chances Of reelection are negligible.
The dominating fact in the present situa
ton is that Mr.. Wilson is still a minority
President, fighting 10 prevent the coales-
cence Of the two factions of the majority
whose quarrel in 1912 elected him. That
fact is too generally ignored in estimating
Mr.. Wilson's strength. But it is Of con-
trolling Importance. What happens to-day
in Maine will be Of interest chiefly in so
far as it helps to show with what success,
or lack Of success, the Presidents tactics
have operated TO hinder a natural realign
ment Of all the forces in the country in
censed by his makeshift policies and sternly
determined 70 make an end Of wisconsin.