Evening star., 1916-12-10

All these things contribute to the re.
moval of ideas and misapprehensions
which were, while they continued, .
permanent barrier to any possible
peace settlement now or hereafter On
the German side they mean a tenn
porary or permanent abandonment Of
any dream that world domination can
be attained In this war. the allied
side they dispose of any hope or belief
that Germany can be removed as a
fact and probably as an enduring dan.
ger in the years that are to come; cer-
tainly the danger can only be removed
by German decision uninfluenced By
external pressure
What then remains before peace can
be made? II Germany is prepared to
evacuate Belgium and northern Franco.
conditions that even the German viii
recognize are necessary antecedents to
any settlement, what are the remaining
obstacles? The answer Is simple.
France will under no circumstances
make peace now without the retroces-
sion of Alsace-Lorraine. Russia will
not make peace without the return Of
all of her occupied territory, without
the restoration of Serbia and without
the possession of Constantinople. Italy
Will not make peace without Trieste,
the Trentino and Dalnatia. Rumanis
mas the guarantee OF all her allies that
she shall have Transylvania and Buko-
vina. where nearly 1000, 900 Rumanians
dwell. As for Britain. We know that
II would not be possible for her, even
II she desired it, as she does not, TO
persuade Australia to surrender the
German colonies she has taken, South
Africa to retire from the German
provinces she has conquered. her ally
Japan to give up kiauchau.
Analysis Not Necessary.
There is no great value in analyzing
these various claims now; they are Of
unequal value, they will appeal to
Americans differently as American
sympathy. knowledge. conviction varies
in these several great problems. But
the main fact remains that every one
of the contestants on the allies' side
today prefers to continue the war
rather than to surrender the hopo
which a protraction OF the war holds
out for them that they may acquire
what they believe to be theirs by moral
right or necessary to their safety in
view of present or future peril coming
from Germany.
And on what terms would Germany
and her allies make peace? We may
fairly dismiss from the, reckoning the
possibility that Germany will now
claim Belgium or any portion of French
soil, because such claims would close
the question of peace altogether. On
'un&4 buher hand. we may be sure Ger.
many will insist upon the permanenco
of that Polish state she has created out
of Russian Poland, a state to be under
Austro-German protection. and to serve
as a barrier against Russia, a buffer
state. not impossibly to be increased
by the addition Of Austrian Poland.
when Austria has been otherwi4hs re-
munerated. Conceivably. Germanyswfll
also insist upon the creation of a-2tato
of Lithuania, also under her protection
but this remains doubtful. Probably
her present program for eastern ex-
concession.
As for Austria, she might consent to
give the Trentino south of Botsen to
Italy, but she never would resign
Trieste or Dalmatia. For herself she
would claim the right to decide the fate
Of Serbia. of Montenegro and Al
bania. The Macedonian portion OF
Serbia would certainly be ceded to Bull.
with Austrian and Hungarian Slav
provinces. it might be surrendered to
Hungary, it might be erected into .
dependent but titularly independent
kingdom under an Austrian prtncoS
but as free state it would vanish
Further Apportionment Of "SpoflsS
In addition to Serbian territory ins
cluding Monastir and Nish. Bulgaria
and Greek Kavala. while Greece would
have southern Albania, now marked
for Italy and occupied by Italian
troops. AS for Turkey. she would keep
what she has and accept her losses in
Armenia and Egypt.
We have here the sum of the differ
ences. then-France. Italy and Ruma-
mia. claiming their lost provinces CAL.
SAGE Lorraine. Trieste and the Tren-
tino. Transylvania) as the permanent
barriers to peace, together with the
Russian claim to Constantinople. To
balance them we have the German
claim to Poland. the Austrian claim to
Serbia. the determination OF the. CEN
trail powers to reward their Bulgarian
ally as the other alliance has pledged
itself to reward Rumania. "o'
And the real battle is between the
Slav and the Teuton. The possession
of Alsace-Lorraine by rFanceI" Of
Trieste and the Trentino by Italy will
not materially change the European
situation. But the possession of Com
stantinople by the Turk. actually Sub.
jected to German direction, or the
passing of Constantinople to the cxars
will constitute the biggest change in
European territory in nearly five cen.
turies. a change. whichever prevRilA
fraught with peril for all the Mediter.
ranean powers and full OF meaning for
Britain. now the possessor o. Egypt
and India.
Here Is Final Answer.
Here is the final answer to any presS
ent possibility of peace. Such progress
as has been made toward peace has
been made by the removal of illusions.
A limit has been set to the hopes and
ambitions OF all the combatants.. but
what still seems to each group possible
far exceeds anything the other will
concede. Unless there be a sweeping
success by one group Of powers over
the other. which Is extremely unlikely,
or a change of sides by one psrers
which grows more and more unlikely
the prospect is for a war Of exhaustion,
lasting until one group is worn Out, OF
both groups. having approached exs
haustion with equal step. at last Con.
sent to settle around the green table
what cannot be settled by battle. This
means another treaty Of WestyhAliA
or Of Utrecht, just as the defeat Of Gers
many now. and not two years ..egos
would mean another congress Of V3en1
ma, q congress in which the essential
unity of the defeated nations would. 6q
as the first conditioa ,oe