New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-01-24
Paris Observer Predicts
Fall of BRAND by End
of January.
MUNITIONS GRAFT
WILL BE LEAVEN
Explosion Has Been Averted in
Chamber. but II Is Bound
TO Come.

Paris, Jan. II. Keep your eye on
Caillaux," ia the watchword IN French
politics nowadays. The ex-Finsnce
Minister il coming back. He had his
man, Malvy, in the Viviani Cabinet and
he has kept him in the BRAND Cabinet.
It was Caillnux who decided that there
should be a quiet and peaceful transi-
ton from Niy.ani TO BRAND instead OF
a vote OF censure In the Chamber with
the subsequent public excitement. Call-
laux was allowed 20 make speech IN
,hc Chamber the other day for the first
time since the Calmctte affair, and ne
got vote Of 30 TO go.
BRANDS Cabinet Will fall before the
end of January, there will be puppet
Premier for couple Of months, and
then Caillaux. That was the prophecy
made to me couple Of days since.
The trouble with BRAND is that he
had only one plank In his platform
when be took Office. Niyiani went out
on the wave Of ind 'gnation over the
Balkan diplomatic hasco. BRAND came
IN on the one word Salonlca, and
Sulonlca in the popular estimation has
been the most grotesque failure OF the
war. Things looked so bad for BRAND
week ago that his fall was freely
predicted before Christmas. but no
one could find exactly the right handle
TO take hold Of. and 80 he held on. But
the general feeling to-day IS that
BRAND Will be out before the end Of
January.
Another weak point in the BRAND
government is the Ministry OF War. A
Minister of War should not be only a
capable man of his hands. but spell
binder Of ability. And Gallieni is no
taiker. When he is called to his feet
in The Chamber he can only fall back
on the formula: 81 am soldier. ! point
with pride 10 my military record"
That will do very well for Gallieni up
20 "a certain point, but it IS Of no help
TO BRAND.
Those who are seeking the downfall
OF the government took advantage OF
this weakness Of Gallieni's last week in
vicious attack that set gossip flying
about who would be the next Premier.
And DO was worth noting that the at
tack was led by a member Of Gail
lauy's group. 1t was over the army
contracts.
After Caillaux's man had led off Gal
lieui replied that he was a soldier and
pointed Witn PRIDE ana SAID that out OF
more than 100000 contracts let for the
army only thirty had been thrown out.
n that had been all the government
would not have lasted ten minutes. but
BRAND came .n with whir' wind
speech that won a vote Of confluence,
and the dancer was momentarily past.
Bur only momentarily.
A for the army contracts, that is a
matter that has been brewing for a
long time. and just what will come Of
IL is hard 20 say. They made large
part of the trouble for Mlerand and
had u great deal TO do with the long
efforts 10 force him out Of Office. In
fact, it was the army contracts he re-
forrod 90 when he made the effective
threat. IF you force me out | will 80
lefore the people and tell them why
10 was moi that Nllerand was con
ccrned in fraudulent contracts. Far
from that. on the contrary, he refused
90 be concerned IN them.
There came near TO being an eXplo-
sion over army contracts in the Cham
her last week, and, maybe, it Will come
frf.