The Caldwell tribune. [volume] (Caldwell, Idaho Territory [Idaho]) 1883-1928, 1916-08-18
New York, August II, 1916.


The most important domestic influ-
ence upon the speculative markets
this week was the monthly agricultu-
raj statement of the United States
government. As a rule, August is
the favored month for the crop
killers" And it sometimes happens
that their pernicious activity is re-
sponsible for an entirely erroneous
estimate of cop conditions by the
country as a whole. This year, how
ever, the black rust damage has beer
considerable heavier than usual, and
the evidence of its wide extent has
been corroborated by reliable testi,
mony of bankers and business leaders
from many states. The government
report goes even farther than the
most disappointing private estimate OF
production in the more important
grain crops, and indicated a total
wheat harvest Of only o54,OO0,00O
bushels, which compares with 1912
1000 last year. In other words. the
1916 wheat harvest promises to be
only o5 per cent of last years produc-
ton. Corn also suffered substantially
during July, showing a drop of co.
10000 compared with last months
forecast; but at 2,777,O0OOOO bushels
the corn crop will be larger than
that of 1914 Or 1913, though smaller
than that of 1915 or 1912. AS August
is proverbially hard month on the
crops, it is hardly possible that much
Improvement will be shown in next
months report, and that the total
he al ~
further shrinkage
Indications have not been lacking
that we would not have bumper grain
crops this year, but the present con-
dition, though bullish for spectators,
is disappointing for the milling and
agricultural districts There is con-
ISOLATION, however. in the fact that
favorable offsets to the unfavorab1e
crop conditions are quite plentiful this
year. AT time when the manufac-
turers of the country are offered more
business than they can handle, the
reduction in crops is less embarrass-
ing than it would be at other times,
and SO far as the producers of grain
are concerned, they will find a very
important offset in the higher prices
which they will receive for their prod
ucts. Grain futures" in the past six
weeks have risen from 10 to 40 cents
per bushel; wheat prices are 81 to 80
cents per bushel above those quoted
at the same period last year; corn
prices show an appreciation of from
IL to IS per cent, and oats from to
IL per cent. New high levels are
also being established for cotton flu
lures, due not only to this years cur
tailed production, but to the excessive
demands upon stock on hand. Cotton
history, in fact, reached a new epoch
this week, when for the first time on
record. at this season distant options
sold at IS cents and July at slightly
above that figure. The belief is now
general that cotton is yet to reach
for higher points.
Stock Market.
The public is out of the stock mar
ket. This is perhaps the safest and
most satisfactory explanation for
the dizziness that prevails on the Big
Board, and in fact in the little boards
as well. The public investor is most
probably improving his time in cult
waiting period of watchful waiting,
being still unable to gauge the exact
effect of important influences upon
the stock list. Thus it is that the
high grade dividend shares refuse to
go down because no one will sell, and
by the same token they cannot go up
because no one cares to buy.
A mild shock has been administered
to the boosters of the automo bile
stocks. by the recent reduction in the
price of well-known low-priced car,
and as result the shares compa-
mics recently amalgamated or pro
ed to enter this field have been held
at much lower estimate of value.
The renewal of the crisis in the
steam railroad situation has been an
important deterrent factor in the gen
eral financial and business situation.
The official result of the strike vote
of the four railroad brotherhoods has
been announced. and it as follows:
o45 per cent of the engineers, 98.3
per cent OF the firemen, 81 per cent
of the trainmen and S7.5 per cent of
the conductors voted in favor of plac-
ing complete power in the hands OF
their leaders TO declare strike.
There is really no news contained in
this announcement, since virtually
unanimous vote was so generally ex-
pected. The position now is that the
labor leaders when they meet the
railroad managers ask what the latter
are going to do to avoid strike.
The disposition of the financial dis
trict appears to favor the expectation
that the net results will be COM
promise, which means that the en-
plo.yees are to receive substantial
part if not the entire amount of their
demands. Official statements of rail- |