Richmond times-dispatch. [volume] (Richmond, Va.) 1914-current, 1916-10-11
100000 AUTOMOBILES
IN AMERICA BY 1878
Pioneer in Industry Says Output for
1915 Will Aggregate I,2OO.-
600 Cars.
e,4oo,ooo NOW IN SERVICE
Expert Concludes From Income
Statistics, Population, Wealth,
Etc, That "Snturation" Point Is
More Likely 100000 Cars.

give million automobiles in America
by 1919, or all increase Of 1000. 900 over
the number now In use, is the conclu-
sion drawn by the president of ~ we'll.
known motor car manufacturing com
pany. He estimates that the output
for 1915 Will ngsreGatc I.2eo.OOD cars.
10 Illustrate tho gigantic strides which
the Industry has made, sets this cnor-
nous hgure alongside 1900, the number
OF cars OF all makes produced in 1893.
We have in use to-day practically
100000 automobiles" he said. and
tho estimate OF production for this
year Is 100000. This cstinat" prob
ably Ia somewhat extravagant on
account of the difficulties experienced
by many manufacturers in obtaining
material and labor. The automobiles
made In 1911 will have gone out of com
mission some time in the course of the
year 1916, 80 II there should he. say.
100000 cara made this gear the In
crease In the number Of automobiles
at the end Of 1915 would be .,hou, ?oH.-
000 This would start 1871. with 500
600 cars.
Five Million by July. 1910.
For tho year 1871 wc would do
duct the 1912 production Of iOO."On and
Add 100000 caro which probably viii
be the production for 1917 (pruhuctiun
Still being Influenced by shortage of
material and luhuyj. giving us Il total
use. At the end Of 1918 deduct tho
production az 1918 OF approximately
100000 and add 800. ooU, making a net
{ Increase Of i,0o0,o00 cars Therefore,
July J. 1919, there viii be 100000 nu-
,omobiles in use. Estimating these
figures us being approximately correct
(and they may vary lp 3co.0 or down
25o.0OO there viii then bc rolling in
the United States total number Of
about 5000. 900 automobiles
Tho expert concludes from inco,ne
Htatistics. population Increases wealth
gains. etc. that III. 'saturntion' point
is moro likely TO be 5000. 600 cars than
100000 lie points out that half the
machines now being sold are bought
by farmers and that Of all the farmers
IN America At least 80 per cent even.
I tuaily VIII have automobile within tho
next rev years. giving NOR" than 3,O6o,-
600 automobiles /" 'h. apriculturists
Hlonc.
Sale. 10 Keep ON Increasing.
Going further into Ia" future hc
says that In 1920 The 1915 cars
VIII nave to be replaced. He estimates
tho number at 100000 To ;hi. VIII
be added the sales Of the increasc I'm
population, Increase in per capita
%eaith' towering OF Tia. price Of ma
chimes. etc. which now can only be
guessed al. He roughly estimates that
there Will be a demand for about
100000 machines in 1920
For the year 1871" says this OK.
pert, based upon the same reasoning.
we would have the renewals of Ioir
! sales. which amount 70 about lion
300. with an additional 100000 coming
from Increased population. etc go thai
IN 1871 there should be a business OF
l.a50.0O0 machines
therefore, would seem fair de-
duction that the automobile business
VIII ne extremely good for 1916, 1917
ana 1918, while the year 1919 probably
VII! show decline. In 1920 the bust.
ness should DO back TO about where /,
WIS IN lSlb. ara 1921 probably will be
tho biggest year the automobile ;ndus
try has cvor scsn'