The Dawson news. (Dawson, Ga.) 1889-current, 1916-08-30
COTTON CONSUMPTION
A MARVEL OF HISTORY
MANNER IN WHICH 1915 CROP
HAS DISAPPEARED CANNOT
BE UNDERSTOOD.

The way cotton has disappeared
during this year of world war and
reasonably high prices is one of the
marvels of cotton history. The facts,
which have not as yet been adequate
ly recognized, may be briefly and
roughly outlined, says the Cotton
Record.
The years crop of 100000
bales has disappeared.
In addition to large increases in
the visible supply there was carried
over from the preceding crop an I'M
marketable remnant of between L.
100000 and 100000 bales. The
quantity marketed this year in ex-
cess of the crop has reduced this rem
nant to between 100000 and 1,0OO,-
600 bales, which makes about 1,000,-
600 bales more than has disappeared
The present visible supply Of
American cotton is about 1,250,000
bales smaller than year ago. That
makes another 1,250,000 bales which
have disappeared.
European mill stocks were esti-
mated by Ellison at the beginning of
the year at about 100000 bales.
Recent writer's on the subject have
for some time been speaking of these
foreign mill supplies as at famine
point. In view of the low ebb to
which foreign visible stocks were re-
duced by restraints due to excessive
freight rates, it seems impossible to
doubt that mill stocks are also small
err, although 100000 bales at the
beginning of the year was already
very moderate. Foreign visible
stocks have gained somewhat of late
and as consequence this itself ar
CUES that the cotton has not yet had
time to get to the mills. We must
assume some decrease for the year
in European mill stocks, and consid-
err 100000 bales very conservative
estimate of the decrease. That would
make 100000 bales more that has
disappeared since July 81, 1915. Let
us summarize these items:
Crop of 1886. $500. IL, 100000
Reduction remnant 1914
1915 -. ....... 100000
Visible decrease ....... l,z5O,OOO
Foreign mill stocks de-
crease oUO,UUV
Total disappeared -. IA, 100000
Some of these items may prove
little at variance with the final Off
cial figures, but the discrepancy is as
apt to be one way as another.
The Journal of Commerce says:
"An outstanding fact is that during
the crop year now practically at an
end the South got rid of nearly
100000 bales in the shape of ex-
ports and 100000 bales for domes-
tic consumption and the crop was on
ly 100000 bales. Practically this
was sold out and 100000 bales be-
sides of the worlds last carry-over
of 100000 bales. At any rate, this
is how a good many reckon it. Of
course, these are worlds figures. Not
only has the South performed this
feat with the aid of an extraordinary
demand at home and an abnormal
foreign demand for munitions, but
prices have been ruling 3 to points
higher than last season, or in other
words, SIS to $40 bale higher. The
South is that much richer and so
much the more independent. Be-
sides it is backed up by the federal
reserve bank system. That of itself
is strong tower of defense. Every
body thought at the opening of the
season that cotton was going down.
Germany and Austria were ruled out
by the blockade That meant a loss
of the ordinary American sales to
those countries yearly of about
100000 bales. Large quantities
have been used by the allies in the
form of munitions. The American
consumption is something unheard
of in American history. Bulls think
bears will be as much disappointed
in their forecast of prices for the
coming season as they were for the
past one. Those on the continent
are down to the famine point. In
Liverpool the total is only $4,000
bales, loss for the week of $4,000
bales. It is about go per cent small
err than a year ago. Of this only
$4,000 bales are American, or some
SO per cent less than year ago.
Besides it is understood that a good
deal of this cotton has already been
sold.