New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-08-11
The Second Great Crisis or the
War.

The time has perhaps arrived when 1t Is
wise to recall that so far in the history OF
the present conflict insufficient and one
sided views of several situations have con-
tributed to leading the mass Of observers
in all camps into very grave errors.
For example, in the earliest days OF the
war. after the Allied defeats had sllencec
their own press and official statements, the
world actually had nothing to 60 by but
the German official reports, which natur'
ally interpreted the overwhelming and al
most incredible sequence of German VIC
tories in accordance with German hope and
expectation. Between the Battle of Char
leroi and the decision at the Marine there
was absolutely no light from Allied
sources.
Accordingly the outside world believed
the worst Just at the moment when, IN
fact, the Allied situation had been restored
the great victory of the Marine had been
prepared and the complete Illustration OF
the original and tremendous German con-
ception was in sight.
After the Battle of the Marine, on the
other hand, when Berlin became silent and
London and Paris vocal, there was every
expectation that the Germans were to be
turned out of France and that the war
would end in speedy German defeat. This
impression endured through the Battle OF
the Aisne and was only dissipated when
the fall of Antwerp and the German attacks
in Flanders and Poland were seen to be
within an ace Of restoring the German SIT
uation and giving the Kaiser the Channel
ports and Warsaw.
Exactly as inaccurate were the expecta-
tions held everywhere outside Of German
and Austrian frontiers, save among few
informed, in the spring Of 1915. The Rus
sian victories in the Carpathians had taken
hold upon the public imagination and the
press had again seized upon the only source
of news. which was naturally the state
ments of the successful party. Kitchener's
army was modified a full year ahead OF
time, the Allied Spring Drive was re
garded as about to complete the work in
the West. and Russia seemed about to steE
over into the Hungarian Plains and take
Budapest.
In point Of fact, Of course, Germany had
forged the thunderbolt which was to strike
the Russian lines on May /, and was about
to begin a victorious advance that was tc
take her from the Carpathians to the
Beresina, while British and French armies
were to be on the defensive or checked in
their first offensives for long months tC
come.
When Russia had suffered her disasters
when the Germans and their allies had got
to Constantinople, crushed Serbia, ruined
the Gallipoli campaign and marched from
victory to victory, the whole outlooA
changed again, and this new frame of MIND
hat resulted lasted right through Verdu-
to the first great Russian successes in last
June.
Now we have Russian, Anglo-Frencf
and Italian successes. They are great sue
cesses, they are synchronized movements
and they may foreshadow the immediate
breakdown of the Central Powers. Unles:
they are interrupted they are bound &c
bring about an ultimate wearing down
But it is altogether unwise to conclude
that they will not be met or that we have
now passed permanently into an ebb tide
of German fortune which will remain con
slant.
Of ultimate German defeat The Tribune
has had no doubt for many months, and
its faith in this outcome has drawn TO II
many jibes from the German sympathizers
and press, particularly in the flood tide OF
Teutonic success last summer But the
thing that should be recognized now is that
il is by no means sure that Germany has
played her last card and that if she has
not then we are about due for her answer
TO the moves that we are all watching with
such breathless interest now.
The Allied hypothesis is that, now all the
foes of the Central Powers are striking i'll
unison and in obedience 10 central COM
mand and in consonance with a coordinated
plan, Germany will be unable to do move
than try to hold all her lines. The Allied
belief is that she lacks the reserves 10
keep these lines permanently manned
They reason that the effort merely to hold
these lines will exhaust her reserves
and they dismiss the idea that Germany
has the man power to indulge in such IN