East Oregonian : E.O. (Pendleton, OR) 1888-current, 1916-05-27
united STATES TO
KEEP EXPORT TRADE
AFTER WAR IS OVER
INCREASED FOREIGN BUSINESS
Is BOUND TO CONTINUE
SAYS EXPERT.
DIR, Edward f. Pratt, Chief of the
Federal Bureau of Foreign and
Domestic Commerce. is Confident
That America WIN Maintain its
Present Position.
BY DIR. EDWARD E. PRATT

BY DIR. EDWARD Z, PRATT
(Chief of the Federal Bureau Of For
eign and Domestic Commerce.)
WASHINGTON. May 25.-Win we
and can We retain this increased for
eign trade which probably will am
cunt to four billions of dollars dur
ing the current fiscal year? l believe
that We can and will. l find that
most of the practical men in foreign
trade believe that they win be able
to retain perhaps not all of the new
business, but very large proportion
of it at least 1t is a question which
believe rests squarely upon the ul-
innate level of costs after the war.
Let us consider the important items
of cost They are labor capital taxes
land the efficiency of a going organi-
zation and connections. This last is
often termed good will"
There is no doubt that the Euro
pean nations are at present losing
good will. Good will depends upon
the ability to establish and to main
tain good business-just what the
European manufacturers have been
unable to do since August, 1914. Am
erican manufacturers and merchants
are picking up whole, as it We're, the
good will that has been voluntarily
dropped by their European competi-
tors.
1t is hardly conceivable that taxes
in Europe will not be enormously in
creased as a result of the war. 1t is
evidently the policy Of all the bellig-
erent nations to meet the costs of it,
not by immediate taxation but
through funded debts This war will
be paid for by the taxpayers of the
next 80 to 100 years; and the taxes
will rest heavily not only on the
people, but on industry.
Already the cost of capital in Eu-
rope has been much enhanced. Cap
ital which could be had for two and
four per cent prior to the European
war can scarcely be purchased for
six per cent now In my opinion,
capital will be in great demand i'm
mediately following the war not so
much for immediate reconstruction
purposes as for all kinds of new en-
terprises and replacements which will
be necessary because present equip
ment is being worn out and because
Present initiative and enterprise are
being stored up without outlet The
demand for capital will be great, the
available amount of it will be limit
ed, and in consequence the cost of it
will be high.
The supply of labor, it seems equ-
ally clear will be considerably di-
minished. Consequently labor will be
in great demand following the close
of the war. Many of the best and
most skilled laborers of Europe will
not come back from the front Many
will come back manned and diseased.
Practically all of those who return
will have lost their most valuable ele-
ment in the European laborer, the
habit of work. The European work
man has been noted for his industri-
Gus qualities, for his loyalty, for the
work spirit which is in him. This, in
my opinion, will no longer exist am
ong those men who have experienced
the excitement of army life in the
trenches and on the battlefields OF
Europe, Labor especially skilled la
Dor, will be in great demand, and will
consequently be high in price.
There is no need of our relying en-
tirely on a theoretical explanation OF
the possible effects OF the European
war. We can go back, if we care TO-
and find out what happened in the
Years Immediately following the Ma
pOleonic wars the Crimean war, our
own Civil war the Franco -Prussian
war, and finally, the Japanese
war. In the case of each one of these
conflicts, we find that taxes were con-
siderably increased and that the en-
tire fiscal affairs Of the nations were
much disarranged. We find that
both the cost of capital and the cost
of labor were enhanced
What do these facts indicate? 1t
seems to me that they forecast a gem
orally increased level of costs in Eu.
rope following the war and, in con-
sequence, a much higher level Of pri-
ces than for the period Immediately
preceding the conflict. If these facts
be true the United States will be bet
ter able to compete with the nations
Of the old world than ever before
We will be enabled not only to hold
our domestic trade, but in addition TO
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