The sun., 1916-01-02
By LEON W. HATCH.

Conditions have been steadily i'm
proving ever since the middle of the
present year and in November were
far better than they were in that
month last year. Very definite evil
dence on this matter is on file In this
office in the form of monthly returns
from ! 300 leading manufacturers,
with not far from half a million EN-.
rloyees.
outside of manufacturing signs OF
improved conditions are not lacking.
Activity in the building industry now
greatly exceeds that of year ago as
shown by the fact that in the ten first
and second cities of the State the value
of work for which permits We're issued
by municipal building departments
was for November of 1915 nearly two
and one-half times as great as for that
month in 1914. Again. returns OF idle
ness in representative trade unions
throughout the State show a percent
age OF idle members in November only
half as great as that for November OF
last year and less than two-thirds as
high as that month in 1913.
With the available sources Of infor-
nation it is impossible to measure
u
eral the war seems to have had two
opposite effects. The first was to
cause business depression. or perhaps
4 would be more accurate to say II
continued or aggravated a depression
already in evidence before the Euro
pean war began. Later during 1870
war orders, causing stimulation OF busi-
nessness in certain special lines, gave
the first impetus 10 business recovery,
which spread from these special lines
10 others until at present the improved
conditions are in evidence in indus
tries generally.
While present improved conditions
are certain, questions as to the future
can be answered with no certainty. On
the whole the writer is inclined to
the following view OF the situation:
The present Improvement In business
is likely to continue while the war
lasts. with the ending OF the war
which will inevitably he accompanied
nv tremendous economic readjust-
ments in Europe which must affect
the rest Of the world, We are likely to
suffer some setback. II nothing more
lappens. we shall at least suffer the
cutting off of the special war business
which Is unquestionably an important
factor in our present improvement
The shock OF our readjustment at the
close Of the war would be greater to-
day than II is likely to be later on he
cause more time will have been af-
fprded for extension Of the present
Improvement TO industries generally
as distinguished from those profting
specially by war business. In a word.
then. our individual business position
Is likely 10 be stronger II the war lasts
another year than II Is now.
II the problems created by the war
he overlooked the general business
outlook would appear TO be favorable.
the fact that the present improvement
IN business t. in evidence In industry
generally aside from those branches
Going war order business would seem
n indicate this, But It must he added
that to eliminate the problems con-
nccted with the war 10, as already
Indicated, TO leave out Of account mat
ters vital 10 our ultimate situation.
There Is absolutely no means even
~ estimating. What we do know
som"thing about IN New York state,
however, is whether unemployment II
Increasing or decreasing. Data on
hand In this office show very clearly
that unemployment has been decreas-
Ing since the middle Of summer ana