Omaha daily bee., 1916-05-05
Defects of Weather Science


THE most imperfect science Is Ineteorology the SCI
enee Of the weather. The test Of science ia rs
ability to predict phenomena that obey tie laws
II Is supposed 10 have discovered. In this respect
meteoroiogy falls faf short The margin Of error IN
its calculations sometimes enormous-suffieent to
completely prediction, The weather bureau
is useful institution, based upon an incomplete sys
tenn Of correlated facts Of observation which are
scientific far they 60 But there are elements
concerned in the production OF weather about witch
the methods Of meteoroosy give information. and
which not taken into account by any OF ts the
cries There birds insects and four-footed AMI
mails which have ncomparably greater foreknowi.
edge OF weather changes than the entire snentifls
corps Of the Agricultural department possesses
When the predieters Of the weather bureau give
warning Of an approaching storm they act on very
much the principle that which railroad
time table Ia based. train having been announced
by telegraph started given line. will arrive N
regular succession, certain points along that line
and station agent any given point can, " no acci-
dent intervenes toretell the moment Of the trains
arrival at his station.
Storm centers. or cyclones moving the coun-
try are In ways comparable TO trains following
time schedule But unfortunately. they do not run
rails. they not driven BY an inYariabe force
they subject TO Interruptions and obstacles Of
many kinds and instead Of always keeping the track
and following the course they frequently wander
vaguely about take unexpected turn or else fade
away like exhausted whiris In water.
In fact the weather bureau predicters In the
same qusndary In which train dspatchers would find
themselves II railroad tracks were shifting lines con-
tlnually drifting this way and that getting crossed
and entangied sinking into suddenly formed quag-
mires and thus disappearing for good
Meteorooey, an a science or weather prediction,
fails Just because II too few facts With the
aid Of the telegraph the weather bureau can, II lucky
follow the trail OF storm center across the United
states but IL cannot tell Just how storm n
born nor Just when where il will begin It's course
The one only great fact which It bases It's whole
system Of prediction Ia the general tendency Of cy.
cone disturbances In this country 10 travel eastward
with a northery trend while storms originating
AROUND the Gulf Of Mexico and the caribbean Hea
usually up the coast
But tho official weather prognosticators as
much In the dark the ordinary citizen concerning
what In going happen In the atmosphere next weeF
and they really know nothing about any storm untl
after II has begun It's and then al that they
know IL from general princlpes) the course that II
will toke-in II doesn't happen 10 change It's
mind
The conduct Of the weather during the last three
months has sufficiently surprising TO show how
immensely desirable II Is that should have Some
Of forecastlDg the varying character OF the
sons What recognizable causes have been At work TO
make the present spring different from the
spending IN 1857 slight variation IN the in
tensity quality OF the radiation received from the
sun might account for these things and recent In
vestigations show that such variations occur. but
what is needed is accurate knowledge about
them and their effects
The present s a period Of maximum sun.spotted-
ness. and generally when spots numerous and
large on the the air temperatures on the earth
lower. and In some regions. storms more FREE
q1ent and violent But all this ia knowledge Of 30
vague and general nature that II throws but gliu-
Of uncertain light upon the subject Of weather
yagaries
Meteoroogy tells about temperatures and bar
ometric pressurcs. about degrees OF humidity and OF
aridty, but It pisses something else, which is evil
IDENTIFY OF essential Importance. Heat and light arc
only two Of infinite number OF forms Of vibration
sent TO Ms from the Everybody knows that when
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