Evening star., 1916-06-11
PROLONGED GERMAN ATTACK ON VERDUN
=. A COSTLY BLUNDER TO CENTRAL POWERS
THAT CANNOT BE RECOUPED, EXPERT SAYS
Battle Was Intended to Make Allies Start Concerted Attack
and Thus Waste Ammunition and Men, But Joffre
Prevented Move-Teutons Have Lost
100000 More Than Enemy.

By FRANK H. SIMONDS,
Author of ''The Great War;"

to send in the spring had not come and
there was no chance that Russia would
be serious menace.
Allies Brilliant Move.
ish could be drawn into an offensive
while the Russians were out Of the
game. Germany had the maximum
chances of repulsing the British and
breaking up the whole allied plan. and
she could temporarily transfer from the
Russian to the western front many di-
visions of troops.
So far we are on fairly safe ground. be-
cause it is a fact that when the German
attack on Verdun began the British did
offer to counter attack, IL the French de-
over the Arras sector of the French front,
thus releasing a whole French army.
which could be put in reserve behind Ver-
dun. This the British, of course, prompt
ly did. Meantime the French took Pc
tain's army. which was in reserve, and
put it in the Verdun sector.
The German attack upon Verdun
was brought to a dead halt in the early
days of March. there was a gradual
dying down of the activity over a con-
siderable period. Then came a new
and still more violent phase in the
early days Of April. This was without
any profit whatever and entailed some
loss. although nothing like. the loss
Of the last days Of the previous fight
ing in the Vaux district. Still there
was no sign of British activity. As
for the Russians. they were still with
out ammunition, for Archangel was not
yet open. also the weather conditions
made operations in the east almost
impossible.
Two More Violent Phases.
Since that time we have had two
more violent phases. That in May
was without any real value. but in the
recent days there has been what. the
French describe as the most violent
of all the attacks, and there has been
an immaterial but noticeable recession
on the part of the French lines west
of the Meuse. followed by new assaults
in the Vaux district. =
Meantime there has broken outs
very severe Austrian attack upon the
Italians, which closely resembles the
attack upon Verdun, has resulted in
even more considerable gains to the
assailant and does not seem to have
been brought to, a permanent halt yet.
So far as one can judge exactly, the
same purpose underlies this attack;
Italy is to be subjected to pressure,
conceivably with the hope of dealing
her decisive blow. but more likely
to drive her to appeal to her allies for
aid and thus induce a partial and pre-
mature attack on the western front.
Despite the fact that Russia has now
been able to use the port of ArchanRel
for some weeks, it is certainty that
and bring up to the front most of the
munitions which she needs and which
her allies have sent her.
The Political Maneuver.
But France has been compelled to en-
dure very rough attack. Italy is en-
during another. which has threatened
to carry the war into the Venetian
plain. and at one point has actually
passed the Italian frontier. We are
then approaching a crisis in German
strategy. Within month at the out
side it is fair to assume that Russia
will be able to make some sort Of an
effort approximating what was expect
ed of her when the plans for general
offensive were made in Paris last VIM
ter AS for the British. they have had
no serious fighting since last October,
and they may be reckoned to be as
ready as they promised to be when the
plans were made -
1t is clear that France particularly,
but Italy also, will not be as well OF
cause they have had to use reserves of
men and munitions in the present fight
ing. But the Germans and Austrians
have in the same way exhausted their
reserves to an even greater extent, and
the situation. il ii endures for another
month, will not be greatly different
from that which the allies had hoped
to see. Ia
Danger of the Allies.
il
may weary of their part of the bargain.
say it is possible. although Every
thing that i saw in France contradicts
any such notion. 1t is possible that the
French people or the French politicians
may demand that a portion of the bur
den be shifted to British soldiers If
this happens then there may still be a
premature offensive. although nothing
like as weak an offensive as would
have come had the British moved last
February. 1t is possible. that the at
tack may come on one front before all
fronts are prepared.
On the other hand il is equally clear
that The time is not far distant when
the allies can carry out their plan as
they had intended to carry it out So
far the German and Austrian efforts to
provoke an attack on~one or two fronts
have failed. If the French people and
the politicians stand up under the at
tack of Verdun for few weeks more,
then the main purpose of German
strategy, so far as German strategy is
now Ineligible to observers outside
of Germany. will have completely
failed.
The Verdun Illusion.
1t cannot too frequently be said that
Verdun itself is an illusion. The Ger
mans may get Verdun a month hence,
and at their present rate of progress a
year would be fairer measure, and un-
less they destroy the French troops be-
fore them and break through the lines
behind Verdun before any reserves can
be brought up. they will have achieved
nothing of military value. save only
as they may have killed more French
and so far it is perfectly conservative
estimate that they have lost 100, 900
more than the French.
More than year ago the French, after
a brief success. were driven south of the
Aisne east of Soissons. but there never
was the smallest chance that the Ger
mans could push their success further,
and at this point they were eighty miles
nearer Paris than they will be in Ver-
dun and there were fewer obstacles in
their way. 3;
No Reason for Attack.
You cannot find any military reason
to support the German. strategy in the
Verdun campaign. after the first at
tack. which is not in fact. political. You
may take the simple explanation that