Evening star., 1916-09-17

strong Russophile party in the country.
and having experienced one war, re-
Gently, in whcih Bulgaria had to bear
the attacks Of four nations. single hand
ed. there will be no disposition on the
part Of the people to wait for the last
ditch or the forlorn hope.
If the Russians and Rumanians make
any real progress in Bulgarian terri
many and Austria and Turkey are not
able to prove that they can defend Bull
garia at the frontier, then 1t will be
time to watch for change in Bulgarian
Russo-Rumanian pressure in the Bull
gar lands north OF the main Balkan
chain begins to be heavy the Bulga-
r1ans are bound to insist upon the with
drawal OF Bulgar troops from Mace
donia. just as the Hungarians are
clamortng for the withdrawal Of the
Honveds from Russia and the Balkans
at the present moment when the Ru-
manians are invading Transylvania.
such withdrawal would enable
Sarrai1 to move up from Saloniki with
his great army toward Nish, along the
Belgrade-Saloniki railroad, and Il he
were able to get to Nish the Vienna
Constantinople railroad would be cut
and both Bulgaria and Turkey isolated
from Germany and Austria, because the
line of the Danube has already passed
under Rumanian guns
turkey Needs Railroad.
Nor Is the demand Of the Turks for
the defense Of the life line binding them
to their allies likely to be less insist
ent than that of the Bulgars II the
Germans are ever again shut out of
the Balkans the fate Of the Osmanli is
sealed. SO far as Constantinople is con-
cerned, and he realizes this perfectly,
He can hardly hope to make much Of
bargain with his enemies now, but he
is sure to begin to make the best bar
gain he can the moment that all hope
on the other side begins to vanish. And
Constantinople hostile to Enver and his
German alliance.
We have, then. in tho Balkan crisis,
an excellent barometer of the larger
sltuation: we have had a summer OF
allied offensive operations. a summer
in which there has not been one consid-
cradle German effort to seize the ini-
uative. In this time there have been
ever recurring demands for German re-
Inducements following close upon the
terrible depletion of German reserves
before Verdun and the considerable loss
OF Austrian reserves in the Trentine of
fensive that had to be abandoned.
Galicia and Volhynia have been grave
than 100000 Austrian prisoners have
been taken on this front and the
Italian.
Today Berlin Is listening to demands
for reinforcements from Vienna (these
are asked to save Lemberg); similar
demands are addressed to Berlin from
Budapest to save Transylvania. Ohter
like demands come from Sofia and from
Constantinople. Alongside these ap-
peals lie the reports from the west
due to the Anglo-French offensives
along the Somme. Conceivably Ger
many has still the reserves to answer
all these demands, but there is no sign
of it that she has disclosed in recent
events. Not even with Turk divisions
has she been able to check Brussiloff's
drive toward Lemberg. The Rumanian
armies continue to flow through Tran
sylvania practically unopposed. Ger
man counter attacks in Picardy have
as Jofrre recently told a friend Of
mine. lost their bite"
Here is a situation that answers
quite accurately to the diagnosis as
cribed to Falkenhayn Here is stu
mediate shortening of the lines. But
where? And to shorten the lines in
France will have instant political ef-
feet in Sofia and Constantinople. Ma
poleon had j-lst the same problem in
1913, and he could not persuade him
self to shorten his lines in Germany
although he had. perforce. to shorten
his lines in the Spanish peninsula, and
his troops ultimately were driven out
Of Spain altogether. Even more sig
nificant to the Bulgar would be the
surrender of the present eastern front
a retreat to the Niemen and the Bug or
the Vistula.
The considerations that Influenced
Rumania to enter the confict-that is.
the facts as the Rumanian statesmen
saw them as to the Austro-German
outlook-will receive the closest scru-
tiny in Bulgaria. and the continued de-
cline of German prospects will infalli-
bly, lead to the desertion of Bulgaria.
while she can still make terms: and
there is no mistaking the fact that
terms are available. Adrianople and
Thrace, perhaps Greek Kavala and
Drama, to which Constantine has per-
mitted Bulgar armies to advance; the
east bank of the Vardar from VeIes
to Guevgheli-these are inducements
that the Bulgars could have for chang
ing their allegiance.