The Topeka state journal. [volume] (Topeka, Kansas) 1892-1980, 1916-05-24
IN TRADE AND MONEY MARrs.

1 IN TRADE AND MONEY MARIS.
Business interests are still chiefly
dominated by the war;" writes Henry
Clews. the New York banker in his
current weekly financial review. 1.-The
impression that peace is near is gain
| ing in strength daily. Germany I'M
doubtedly desires settlement if sat
| isfactory tel ms can be arranged. IN
fortunately, while positive efforts may
be made in this direction, the out
look for immediate success is doubt
| full The labor outlook is causing
considerable perplexity in industrial
circles. Wages have advanced in
many instances, especially in NUM-
! ton plants, as a result of war profits.
! 1t is recognized, however, that war
profits are purely ephemeral, and that
when peace comes, as it might within
the year, these will quickly melt away,
including the extra profits enjoyed by
many of the industrials outside of the
war group. There are really two
points of view regarding the labor
outlook. One is that when the war is
over. if not before, there will be
slump in everything pertaining to the
munition industry; that sharp in
ternational struggle will Immediately
begin for the markets of the world;
that Europe will be on a much lower
cost basis than the United States; that
in consequence our exports OF manu-
features, which nearly trebled in the
last nine months, would shrink back
to their former basis; and that conse-
quently there will be oyer-production
and a sharp industrial setback fol-
lowed by lower prices and vanishing
profits. 1t is quite certain that sooner
or later some readjustment will be
necessary, if we are to meet foreign
competition and gain the firm footing
in the worlds foreign markets which
is becoming national ambition. Pro-
fits will have to return to normal and
costs will undoubtedly be reduced. But
the question that chiefly perplexes
managers is, will labor be willing to
accept itS share of the inevitable re-
adjustment? Probably not, and this
is difficulty that may have to be
solved before many months have
passed. There is still another point of
view, which is this: Keen foreign
competition may admittedly be I'M
avoidable when the war is over; but it
pared to meet that competition than
is generally supposed. Foreign COM
petition, it is argued, will not be so
severe as many imagine, because
wages in Europe will remain relatively
high owing to the reduced supply of
labor and the excessive taxes which
labor will have to aid in paying. Fur
thermore, neither Germany nor Great
Britain will waste much time before
endeavoring to regain lost ground:
their recovery and readjustment will
necessarily be gradual; consequently
while labor here may resist read
justment, it will probably gradually
compromise as leaders come to realize
irresistible conditions. Such are the
widely divergent views of the labor
outlook. 1t is a question If either view
is entirely correct, and a solution in
all proba bility will be found between
the two An important factor in the
labor outlook will be the immigration
movement; some authorities expecting
a large outflow from this country
when peace arrives, while others anti
cipate a large influx. The latter is
the most probable, because of the I'M
willingness and the difficulties which
soldiers will experience in returning
to their former occupa -ons. More
over, the better opportunities offered
in this country will attract large num-
bers from countries where depression
is keenest. The rise in securities
outside of munition shares-which are
a law unto themselves-has been SEN
sibly checked by foreign sales in this
market and a realization that the
present abnormal activity in business
cannot Indefinitely continue. Already
there are signs of a halt in the upward
movement of commodities, Brad
streets index number for May 1 being
11.74S5, against 11.759S April 1. The
May index number shows a rise of
over 10 per cent, compared with a
year ago, and has been chiefly due to
the advance in metals, chemicals and
such materials as were consumed by
the requirements of war. There are
growing complaints of the increased
costs of doing business and not a few
enterprises have been deferred owing
to the high cost of construction. The
policy of increased discrimination on
the part of bankers and lenders is also |
exerting a restraining influence upon |
new business.