The sun., 1916-09-11
FINANCIAL NEWS
AND COMMENT
Three Strong Arguments
Given to Bears in Less Than
Twenty.four Hours.
INQUIRIES FOR PIG IRON
Italy, France, Norway and
New Zealand Figure Prom
inently in Market.

Three strong arguments were given TO
' tho bears within less Than twenty-four
hours. n near the close Of business
on Friday and the two others immsdi.
ntely after noon on Saturday.
The first was the Government crop
report. which confirmed private aavlces
previously made public, indicating ex-
trsordinary deterioration Of the chief
American crops. This report exerted 1T
tie influence on the course Of prices In
The short session on Saturday.
The two other arguments were pro-
vided by the United States Steel Corpora
tons report Of untitled tonnage and
by tho New York Clearing House state
lnent OF the condition OF the associated
banks.
Cnhlled tonnage showed an Increase
OF 1915 tons. Enthusiasts had IRE.
dicted an Increase OF from 200, 900 to
100000 tons. n the rapid advance Of
Steel common on Saturday was inter.
preted at the time as assurance that
the report would he fully as satisfactory
as bulls anticipated.
iNNNuIN OI III NleuY-
ing House statement was a loas Of almost
s3O,Ooo.O0O In aggregate reserve and a
decrease of more than s26. 900. 900 In ex-
cess reserve. bringing the total excess
down to $63.s0l.070.
Mig steel Demand Ahead.
Though II would be foolish to dlsre.
gard the significance OF the tonnagc and
bank statements. Il Is probably true
mat Mt frst their Importance was over
estimated. The Steel Corporation Is
sold up many months In advance, the az.
gregate Of orders on the books at the
end OF August being 9.ss0.357 tons. Fer
several reasons the corporations maua
gers could not be expected to make &C.
tive Efforts to increase the volume OF
orders. and consequently new contracts
received have been Of an urgent char.
acter.
II Is not at all improbable that the
prices or steel may advance. Active in
curry Tor pig iron Is reported. Italy.
France. Norway and New Zealand ng-
ur!ng prominently In the market. In the
last few days reports have been received
mat 10000 tons Of pig Iron had been
sold In the Chicago district for shipment
abroad. and two American concerns
were reported as purchasers Of $4,000
"'o AssVvu koiS ICbpcCAlNctSs INC UTSt OF
foundry grades for delivery during the
first half Of next year and the second for
be s!c.
The Iron Trade Rertec points out that
the demands Of the United states Gov.
for steel for new vessels will
include $4,000 tons to be awarded this
month next and 50, 900 tons in De-
cenber for hull construction. not includ-
Ing armor plate. and it Is estimated that
the steel being used for shells ordered
by the Allies amounts 20 about 800. 900
tons a month, or about one-e!eventh Of
the total steel production Of the country.
When 1t IL realized how tremendous is
the consumption OF steel products II Is
diAicult to be bearish with respect to
earnings OF the steel companies. and SO
long as the trend OF earnings appears to
be upward the natural expectation Is
tina, prices Of steel shares will continue
to move upward until they more accur-
ately reflect the acknowledged earning
capacity OF the properties.
So the mere fact that the increase In
untitled tonnage reported by the Steel
Corporation on Saturday was smaller
than had been expected Is not essentially
a bear factor. but when the rapidly Of
Saturdays advance Is remembered the
cautious trader might do well 10 watch
for a reaction.
Gold Not Deposited.
On the surface a loss OF $50. 900, 900 OF
reserve In one week appears decidedly
discouraying In the lisht of heavy gold
imports. particularly when II Ii known
that the actual loss Of gold by the bank
was $2s.0sl. 900. The ratio Of excess
reserve to reserve requirements declined
to approximately IL l-2 per cent. com
pared with III per cent. a week ago,
22.7 per cent. two weeks ago and IS 2-5
per cent. three weeks ago. The low
record was slightly less than "a per
cent.
The reason this showing was not dis
turblng was that the gold received from
abroad was not deposited In the banks.
A large part OF It still remains In the
assay ONCE. This gold doubtless will
be available whenever needed. and the
course Of money rates In the local mar
ket In the last week certainly did not
suggest n uneasiness on the part OF
the banks.
The Immediate effect Of these new ar
guments will depend In part at least
upon the mood OF the speculative ele-
ment. and there has been ample evidence
In the last few days that the largest
operators are committed to the long side
of the market.
Probably the majority OF experienced
observers believe we have not seen the
highest prices on the current bull move-
ment. The chief difference OF opinion Is
on the question whether the market Is
ready for a temporary reaction.
a few days ago II appeared that prices
would move lower before resuming their
advance, but heavy realizing and short
selling were absorbed so readily II be-
gan 70 appear that the technical position
was not SO weak as had been supposed
On Saturday. however. brokers appeared
to be In doubt and few were ready to
hazard an opinion as to whether net
changes to-day would be gains or losses.
II may be bulls and bears alike will
refrain from extending their commit
ments pending receipt OF political news
from Maine. A decisive Victory there for
the Republicans or the Democrats prob
ably would exert u noticeable effect upon
the stock market. because a clean sweep
by one party or the other would be re-
Earded generally as a fair indication Of
the probable results OF the November
elections, and the prevailing opinion IL
hat a Democratic victory would aid
the bears. whereas Republican success