South Bend news-times. (South Bend, Ind.) 1913-1938, 1916-05-22
PEACE TALK IS
GROWING -CLEWS
Demands of Allies, However,
Will Prevent Success
Immediately.
Ry Henry C1ews.


in this direction, the outlook for i'm
mediate success is doubtful. Each
of the allies have heavy demands 20
make upon Germany. demands TO
which she is not likely 10 consent.
Great Britain. Russia and France are
on the ascendant Of power IN
greater degree than at any time
since the war began. They have not
vet had a full opportunity TO as
sumo the offensive and strike their
strongest blow, without which il
seems certain they Will not consent
10 peace Therefore. while the de-
sire for peace exists. and while some
preliminary efforts in its direction
are entirely within the range Of
probability, the outlook for an ac-
tual suspension Of hOstilities appears
remote. The Mexican trouble seems
to have passed out Of serious con-
sideratiOn as a market factor, al
though still a source Of consider
able anxiety TO the administration
at Washington. Politics also appear
to be a factor Of minor importance
from the business standpoint, and
this campaign is attracting less in
terest than any presidential contest
i'm many years, mainly of course be-
cause it is overshadowed in the pub
lie mind by war in Europe and our
own difficulties with Mexico.
The labOr outlook is causing con-
siderable perplexity in industrial
circles. Wages have advanced in
many instances. especially in NUM-
ton plants, as result of war profits
II is recognized, however, that war
profits are purely ephemeral and
that when peace comes, as it might
within the year. these will quickly
melt away, including the extra
profits enjoyed by many Of the in
dustrials outside of the war group
There are really two points of view
regarding the labor outlook. one is
that when the war is over, if rot
before. there will be a slump in
everything pertaining TO the NUM-
ton industry: that a sharp interna-
tiOnal struggle Will Immediately be-
gin for the markets OF the world;
that Europe will be on a much lower
cost basis than the United States;
that in consequence our experts of
manufactures, which nearly trebled
in the last nine months. would shrink
back to their former basis; and that
consequently there viii be over-pro-
duction and a sharp industrial set
back, followed by lower prices and
vanishing profits. IL is quite GER
tain that sooner or later some re-
are TO meet foreign competition and
gain the firm footing in the worlds
foreign markets which is becoming
national ambition. Profits will
have to return TO normal, and costs
will undoubtedly be reduced But
the question that chiefly perpleXes
managers is. Will labor be willing to
accept its share of the inevitable
readjustment2 Probably not, and
this is a difficulty that may have 10
be solved before many months have
passed There is still another point
Of view which is this. Keen foreign
competition may admittedly be un-
avoidabl when the war is over; but
il is argued that we viii be better
prepared 10 meet that competition
than is generally supposed. Foreign
competition, il is argued. will not be
SO severe as mary imagine because
wages in Europe wil remain rela-
lively high owing 10 the reduced
supply Of labor and the excessive
taxes which labor viii have to aid
in paying. Furthern- neither
Germany nor Great Britain will
waste much time before endeavoring
90 regain lost ground; their recovery
and readjustment will necessarily be
gradual; consequently while labor
/ here may resist a readjustment. it
will probably gradually compromise
as leaders come 20 realize irresist-
! ible conditions. such are the widely
divergent views of the labor out
/ look. Ii is "a question if either view
/ is entirely correct, and a solution
I i'm all probability will be found be-
tween the two. An important factor
in the labor outlook will he the inn
I migration movement: some authOri-
ties expecting large outflow from
\ this country when peace arrives.
while others anticipate a large in
.fuN. The latter is the most prob
7 able, because OF the unwillingness
and the difficulties which soldiers
Will experience in retuTaiu, TO their
F former occupations Moreover the
+ better opportunities offered in this
country viii attract large numbers
from countries where depression is
/ keenest. Great Britain is already
/ calculating upon many of her men
/ leaving the United King lom. and is
\ planning 10 divert them TO her coll
1 onies: Canada already being engaged
/ in making plans and inducements
/ for their coming A large influx 20
I this country must also Doe expected
7 from Russia. Hungary italy and
I possibly Germany; though the latter
l is problematical and would be off,
\ set by the large number expecting 10
return 20 the s,,itSrland for family
and financial reasons as well as from
motives Of curiosity ard interest.
The effect Of the war upon our
foreign trade can be realized by the
I fact that between its commences 7ent
\ In 1914 and the end Of last MarCt
/ our exports have reached the stu