The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1916-01-03
FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
FOR THE NEW YEAR
Prospect Inspires Confidence
with Certain Safeguards
Of Doubt.
STRONGLY BASED

o''fs
the most wonderful year In u economic
history and the contemporary reviews
of these events have value In helping us
to determine the prospect for the twelve
month on which we have entered.
Nevertheless the year 1916 contains On
its own account so many unknown and
unknowabie elements OF tremendous i'm
portance that the solution OF the prob
lem which will offer depends only In
part on the problems solved In the recent
past. The greatest assistance we Will
have In this respect Ii derived from the
confidence gained in the success OF the
American people in overcoming tremen-
dous obstacles OF unprecedented difii-
Guilty which lay in the path to the pres
ent state of prosperous and profitable
activity and In the still more reassuring
success achieved in keeping a steady
mind under temptations to "a disastrous
loss of sclf-oontrol.
One Of the questions which naturally
arise to-day Is suggested by the con-
trast between financial and business
feeling "A year ago and now. AZ the be-
ginning OF 1915 we were on the whole
very glad simply to be alive con-
tent with the most modest expectations
OF the year that lay ahead. At the
opening OF 1915 sentiment Ia altogether
more sanguine and there is "a widespread
conviction that the period which stretches
before us to the end OF the new year
will unfold q chronicle OF persistent ad-
vance In values and increase In vol
umes. Accordingly We are all disposed
to inquire. as We ought. II there Is not
at the moment too much exuberance OF
optimism which is likely to conduce 10
its own disappointment. Fortunately an
answer can be returned that the danger
on this score is not great.
To all observers. even to the least dis
, cernlry. it must he patent that there
are large reserves OF wholesome quail
fying doubt In the situation with which
men OF affairs have to deal. There
seems to he widespread and general rec
o~gnit!on that normal factors are compli-
Gated with very abnormal economic in
fuences resulting from the war for
which liberal allowance has to he made
In all calculations applying TO the future.
The ship of American finance has proved
It's SCI worthiness in the most tempes-
tuous weather OF all history. We have
acquired fresh confidence In the skill
and intelligence OF its navigators. VINO
have gained renewed confidence in them
selves from their experience In storm
and stress. But there Is nothing like
clear skies and clear sailing ahead
which FOR that very reason would war
rant apprehension. There IL In all bust
ness and banking quarters apprehension
enough because Of the war to restrain
expressions OF overconidence
No more emphatic proof OF this could
be desired than the way in which the
frenzy OF public gambling In war NUM-
ton shares was curbed last autumn by
Efforts in which banking interests en-
listed extensive cooperation and support.
1t has been illustrated also In the fire.
quent lulls OF financial and business ac-
tivity which have denoted a sensible
process OF taking bearings anew before
continuing the enlargement OF construs-
tive commitments We "A safely cor
clud therefore that as long as the war
lasts it's uncertainties. which are very
great, will, as they rust. temper busi-
ness resolution and moderate enterprise
within the bounds OF prudence. Indeed.
there II far more danger OF reckless
excesses of business activity when peace
has been restored and the worlds skies
are clear Of the clouds Of war than
there is risk Of it during the war, for
while the war RACES We are constrained
always to keep in mind conjscturally
adverse aspects which are OF vital bear
ing on values,
one OF these aspects has to do with
the duration OF the conflict. There Is
no immediate evidence that the terminal
ton OF the war will shortly come into
sight and no basis for possible peace
negotiations appears to have been es-
tablished. The assumption that we have
still to reckon with II continuation Of
the war rather than with its conclusion
involves also a question as to the condi-
ton OF exhaustion In which belligerents
may ma themselves AT the close OF the
war. Again, We have to keep In mind
the outcome OF the struggle. Tor We nave
a deep concern In the issues or the war
and must De deeply concerned sooner or
later 10 know II a complete victory ID
to be won and which side VIII win II.
we nave had evidence mat military
operations nave oeen renected mere IN
the naits or OF our hhanc'ai
n business recovery n the cneck
wh,cn was adininis.ered 10 the wan
street STOCK market III tne iast Two
"ioh'hs y 'he year was !" All pIouaol'ity
sorne reNpo"se the turn which the war
'oon ~ 'ne Sou'"s".,eI' '"ea're'
~ ~ ''"'.S "a'i oe eo"i'oh'eu Win
'"e Pe,pe'ua' "e'ess''y VI ue'erTh'h'ns
our poi!.ea' reIa.ion 10 .he war 10,
- ~, w ~" 'e'''"''s shou'u
w a'e.e" a. u eco"",h'o Ie,a'ions
mou,u pe a'ee'eu' e,en tnousm not III
lhe '"ns ,un ,.Is aurerseIy. WIN re-
So ~ -. .a'' "
.no'e co.. 10" .n,s 'ount'y my
the var ia" ~ e'u"'S has 10 oe
ora~n
ine'' .e"' ~ euoJeet o wa
~. . ,a,ir,." Ia.
w s. ""n m'.''.s III n.s III.
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