New-York tribune., 1916-07-10
By J. l. GARvN.

,..r.nv could break Russia she could
:. Win even the land war. Not only
Il the Central League could not
u Russia In the present campaign
n ,he hopes based on their previous
.--,ss would Re broken sooner or
80 Nv the action Of the Cars ar
-. with the other allies. From that
..,3rcint this month Of July seems
- 70 be perhaps the most critical
..riod Of thc whole conflict The gen
sourdncss Of that judgment stands
s.-;ees but in how different a manner
.-o,, ANYTHING imagined!
Al life. but especially war and poll
49,. & an astonishing interplay Of
-. esiculable and the incalculsble.
y.-v persons foresaw with a vision as
....,se and sure as that Of the Old
-...smen, prophets the coming Of this
bpt 10 one anticipated its occa-
= ~ It's character. The last Lord
s.r.burv. indeed. with that brooding
.-,.i,v he had. often predicted that
,-..rs86or would break out over some
,,ssen issue coming sideways But
,~., he could not have anticipated that
-. sssassination OF an Austrian arch
suks .wo wears ago would summon ar
-,ss not only from the older nations
~, from the ends Of the earth and
,ou5 send millions TO their graves.
Thus z We say that things are con-
..sr,,r turring out as piercing thinkers
,r.--ss the world for years beforehand
,g. are half right. And II We repeat
"a, 1T is the unexpected that hap
ps,s7 We are half wrong, in spite Of
n;,raeli and the attractions Of epi-
gram.
Ike the ,eaven and the dough, there
!. always the mingling of some un-
srown factor with circumstances that
we're plain and obvious. The war, par
srsl With its dreadful practical con-
GEMS. keeps US musing about old hu-
nan Questions Of fate and destiny, law
and chance. Il brings 10 mind what
wise physicians used TO tell us in peace
that men who walk the hospitals,
v..t their scenes of healing or OF
doom. are apt 70 become either mystles
O. matcrialSts.
TIE recovered strength Of Russia was
.,r..,s indeed. but we all knew II 70
&. .t-u far from its maximum. ne
.-ast,Dc force Of General Brusi!of 5
..sayeht was a surprise almost as
s.sr.-inr 10 the Western Powers as 70
.ss Central Empires themselves. Inc
russians have FAR surpassed al reason
,ss calculations based on western
..sr5ards. on the other hand, tnough
n one could admire more than myseH
10 ragnifcent achievement OF our
-,s.er~ .Ily or take firmer view tha'
te ultimate effect Of the Russian Iac-
.5r viii be enormous, ! am not among
.tose who look for the total deDac!e o!
Austria during the coming months II
IS better 10 keep 10 measured NleNa'
though 90 sketch dazzling theories
would be much easier.
Journalistic Romance.
Trs~e has. Of course. been the usual
s=eryescerce Of optimistic romance on
.,e rar- az the more facile Journalism
TIE prssiar offensive had scarcely
~,., .,..r.v miles forward when the
feafIi,es we're crediting II once more
with the weight Of the ola laniIIai
steam roller and the speed OF a hIsn
powered motor car. PICTURES "eIe -
;ured un Of Russian infantry divisions
sweenine over the rivers as thoush
everr man we're shod with seven leasue
boots. As for cannon and shell they
were doubtless coming on at a IaLe
rs-e bv some means left vague. Noun
-e r this corresponds 10 the pom
tsrou. and deliberate realities OF wal
Even If the most sober view be tah,
en-. the Russian operations are oouhu
20 have farreaching, perhaps
,rsrsformlng, effect in favor OF the
Allies as q whole. What has happeneo
On land. in conjunction with the
elsrebing Of British sea power against
Csrmsnv and with the Allies reas-
ssr,ion Of their trade power, seems
bound ,o shorten the war and 20 modl-
" an previous speculation. Eeither
The Western nations nor the Central
Empires had supposed that Russia
tbopgb believed 20 be impregnsble
again on the defence strike any
blow Ike General Brusilof's before
The beginning Of next year
Germany's Mistake.
Hence the practical and moral prep, p.
srstior i- the West for the contingency
o. 4 four years war under condl.Ion.S
that would relieve the appalling strai.,
On France. Hence also the pro10un.u
s,rs,ecical mistake. as we here hold IL
70 Be. Of Germany's determiihatI'o'nl ~
concentrate against Nerdun the niSsSes 's
Of guns and men which might hay'
teen employed with far more 1orhliu-
able effect upon some sector IN tne
east bu. for the infatuated unueI
ssiimate. Of Russia which possesseu
Berlin and Vienna alike.
This is another of Germany
Psychological blunders," and its or
GINS 20 back for years, almost 10.
generations. Frederick the Great met
his bloodiest checks because he des-
pissed the warnings of General Mann
stein who had served in Russia. Inc
Gcrmans assume a tone OF overweenlng
superiority toward all Slavs, despite
'he remarkable proofs Of the hlghesSS
practical ability given by Poles ano
Clechs as education increases among
'nem. The present German Emperor
was surrounded for years by persons, !,
IKE Professor Schiemann, who nela
ma; the Cars army, in conflict WIN
russian organization, would prove
little better than rabble. Last Au-
gust il was believed that for all serl-
Gus purposes the "rabble" was perma-
'cntly dispersed.
The Russian Fallscy.
american visitors 20 Berlin during