Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1916-07-30
W.-Sulnnnary.

situation as it ends and the situation a
year ago. We did not know then what
the extent of the German victory in
the east was to be. But the year
closed while Germany still was going
forward in the greatest campaign of
the war. and the magnitude and extent
of her conquests and victories filled the
whole world and gave form to the
words in which the comment on the
end of the first year was made.
One year later the change is unmis-
| taxable. 1t is the central powers-Ger-
many, for she is the heart and head
of the war in her own camp-which are
on the defensive and the allies who
are advancing In remote Armenia. in
Volhynia. in Galicia. in the Baltic prov
inces and in northern France. as well
as along the Alps in the Trentino dis
trict. Russian. French. British and
is every promise of new offensive
from Saloniki aimed at Bulgaria and
designed to liberate Serbia.
1t is no longer possible. as It was i'm
troops from east to west or north to
south as one field after another became
interesting or unimportant in her cal
culations. On all fronts with equal
pressure the flood is beating upon her
battle lines, and in the southeastern
field breach has already been opened,
which must be closed before long If
the consequences are not to be serious
for the central powers.
Three German Failures.
Three times-at the Marine. in Russia
and in the Verdun attack-Germany has
sought to destroy one of her foes; by
single colossal blow to put one of
her great opponents out of the reckon
ing. as Napoleon disposed of Austria
at Austerlitz. Prussia at Jena and Rus
s1a at Friedland. in the prosperous early
days of the imperial drama. Failing in
all three attempts, she now sees the
third year of the war open with all
her enemies standing with France un-
broken, Russia returning to the charge
with numbers and efficiency which
evoke unfailing wonder in Berlin and
undisguised apprehension in Vienna
and Budapest. Britain has now mil
lions, where she had tens of thousands
in August. 1914. and hundreds of thou
sands year ago.
AS the year ends we have full meas
ure of Germany's difficulties and dan
gers. but we have no information to
prove her capacity to meet them and
only allied assertions to support the
her economic situation desperate and
| that the ever-growing problem of food
continues to worry her statesmen and
weaken her people.
the offensive, but we are not able to
decide whether the loss will prove
temporary or permanent. We see that
the attack on all sides is made by
effort is confined to meeting these at
| tacks, so far successfully in the west
and unsuccessfully in the east. We
have the allied assertion that German
man numbers to hold. OF this we lack
proof as yet. We have the parallel
of the days of the civil war after
Gettysburg frequently called to our
mind, and Joffre, following Delacroix.
has likened Verdun to Gettysburg. But
of these things there is yet no proof,
save only as we have the German con-
fession that on all fronts German
troops and the troops of Germany's
allies are outnumbered. This, after all,
must be patent, given the resources
in men of the great nations combined
against the central powers and the
| enormous casualty lists that Austria
and Germany have suffered-lists that
must now in killed, wounded, captured
and incapacitated far pass the
100000 mark.
Greater Odds Overcome.
Yet if the friends of the allies now
turn to the parallel of the Confed-
eracy it is plain that with equal JUS
tice the Germans may point to the
achievements of Frederick the Great
and The heroic and successful re-
sistance of Prussia in the seven years
war, when the odds were far greater
and the resources of Frederick insig-
nificant IN comparison to those of his
many foes. We may say with justice
that in losing the offensive, the initia-
tive, if 1t be permanently lost, in fail
ing to put out one of her enemies be-
fore all were equally prepared, Ger
ma fail a1 n wi ha
| terms, failed to conquer, and the sec
ond year of the war has seen the COM
ing of the failure. But this is long
way from saying that Germany can be
Bernhard forecast German defeat if
Germany failed to eliminate one of her
great opponents before all were In the
field with equal preparation. But Bern
hardfs prophecy is old, and the war
has abolished many articles of faith in
the minds of all observers, neutral and
belligerent. What one can say with alb
solute accuracy is that as the year ends
there is unmistakable evidence that a
new phase has begun, the phase domi-
mated by allied attack upon Germany,
as the preceding two years have been
dominated by the great German often
sive combinations.
1t follows that the year is ending
without the smallest promise of peace.
There Is no prospect that the allies will
be able between now and winter to win
a victory that Will bring Germany TO
her knees There is no present promise
that Germany will be able to regain
the initiative and in the same time ac-
complish what she failed to accomplish
at the Marine and about Wilma. Allied
successes, small as they still are, will
hold out the promise to the allies of a
rear victory next year. German resist
ance, maintained as it now is, will sus-
tain the German belief that Germany
should continue the war until she is
BILE to make peace conforming to the
extent of the war map.
Another Year of War.
Every outward evidence that a rea-
sonable man can accept points to an
other year of war to the fulfillment of
Kitchener's forecast of three-year
war. Nothing is yet decided save that
Germany has failed to crush France or
Russia and to compel Britain to ask
peace by menaces directed on land at
Egypt and India and on water at the
borne trade of Britain by the sub
marine. Possessing Belgium, thousands
of square miles of northern France, all
of Poland, most of the Baltic provinces
and much of Volhynia, the central pow
sfi haU Nv