The Washington herald. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1906-1939, 1916-02-21


figure Of 10000 includes 10000 lads Of
the class of 1911 who are only now be-
ginning their training.
1900, 900 Men Began War.
Concerning the actual size of the Ger
man armies at present, as given above,
there is little disagreement in official cir
eles. The crucial questions are those of
the rate of wastage from death, wounds
and disease and the number Of fresh re-
cruits who can be put into line as a re-
suit of the tremendous efforts now going
on in the Fatherland.
Col Feyler the Swiss military critic,
has estimated that Germany mobi
lized in the first year of war 7,75O,0o0
men. and since this figure does not in
elude the classes of 1915, 1916 and 1917, or
the last ban of the landsturm, the IN
trained men up to forty-fiye, IL does not
conflict with the opinion of the staff
that the total mobilizable strength of
Germany, trained and unframed. up to
and including the class Of 1871, is $780,
oo0 men.
Concerning losses, where for more than
a year there were the widest differences
in the beliefs even Of the stafT experts
OF the allied countries, there is now prac-
teal unanimity Of opinion. The state
ment that the Germans have lost since
the beginning OF the war 10000 men a
month permanently .incapacitated by
death, wounds or disease is now gen.
orally accepted and is borne out by the
Official figures of the Germans them
selves. The German lists are "doctored"
In regard to wounded and sick. but their
total Of SIS, sSS killed and 356.15 missing
and prisoners to January l Is regarded
as correct, and by analogy with their
own complete figures, by careful exam
nation OF the ratio Of killed to wounded
IN all the allied armies and by other in
tricate methods which it would take a
column to explain, the staff experts con-
tend that the German official lists when
properly interpreted verify the rate of
wastage given. which means that the
German armies up to February lost
permanently about S6O0.000 men, 90o, 900 a
month for eighteen months of war.
May VIII See Decline.
subtracting 100000 men out of action
from the total Of 100000 the figure 500,
oco is obtained. and this includes the 24O
divisions of 4.sOO,OOO men now in the field
and leaves on February l only coo, 900
reserves. Apparently. therefore, the
strength of the German units will begin
to decline by May l, because the reserves
will be all gone.
This Is the crux of the whole situation,
and the figures poured forth for a year
past proving that by fixed dates the Ger
have made the public suspicious Of the
whole business, because those figures
have all been wrong. In an article writ
ten at the end Of October 1 showed on
very high authority that the German
strength could not be maintained until
spring. And was wrong
UNIT and Aged Called to Arms.
The explanation in the latter case is
that the Germans took a step which the
compilers of the estimates did not believe
they would take. On November l orders
went out all over the German pire to
re-examine all men previously rejected
as unfit, and many thousands of new
recruits have already been obtained in
this way. And at present the allies I'M
derstand that the Germans are preparing
to raise the age limit from Is to 80 years
and ultimately to "a years
The reason why the estimates compiled
last autumn ignored this evident posi-
bility was because the consensus Of mill
tary opinion in the past, including the
German, has held that an army Is not
strengthened but weakened by the in
clusiOn of men less fit. or older, than