New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-10-01

London, Sept 27.-October ought TO
be q month Of giant fighting. shall
say nothing Of the Western front eX-
cent that it will be worth watching
All the signs suggest that events are
going to break like an autumn storm
in the Eastern theatre Of war, and 1t
would surprise no good judge OF the
conditions if the Germans and their
confederates made a more tremendous
rally than public opinion in the Allied
countries expects.
Those who argue too exclusively in
terms Of relative man-power in the neld
hardly convey a correct estimate OF the
present phase and the next. Germany
has not only got to fight for her life
Enthusiastically and at once-the same
proposition applying even more grimly
to Austria, Bulgaria and Turkey-out
she has to fight above all with the
full pressure Of her immense metal
lurgical industries.
Germany's Only Chance.
That is her only chance, and 1t ia
nonsense to suppose that she will not
make a very formidable use Of her OBJ
yious means. Otherwise her leadership
would be weak indeed, and necessity
would have ceased to be the mother OF
resource. II Germany in the GROWING
attempt fails for any reason, direct OF
indirect. her fate and that of her part
ners Wi! be evidently sealed by CHRIST
mas. even in the sight OF thelr own
peoples. .,..a
II the Allies are checked or thwarted
for few months German spirit may be
revived, though in vain. Inc A!IleS
would resume again with larger tecnhl-
cal means, but the war would be pro-
longed. No wise man ought yet 20 eN-
clude the latter possibility. 1t is never
wise TO underestimate your enemy.
The iron game as game IS now az
unite its most interesting point ne
Possibilities of strokes and counter
strokes were never vet quite so various
and complicated Every student OF nal
itarv history will have q right 20 be
Jisappointed if the autumn grappie IS
not one Of the finest dramas ever seen
since war was.
History To Be Repeated?
The last struggle of France after
Sedan and Metz, OF Napoleon alIeI
I sinzig. of Frederick the Great IN the
final phase when he was outnumoereGi
nv three to one, Of LOUIS NV
after wears Of misfortune -each Of
these was surprise. FrederlcH
case was. Of course, unique, since Hc
was saved not by military means ou'
bv the death Of his implacaole zoe INC
Czarina Elizabeth. Modern GERMANY
ought 20 be able without any nope OF
changing the ultimate issue 10 inmate
so many obstinate examples.
And We have 20 remember SOM
thing more important and cQnGre.e
.ban historical analogy. As nave
said, II is now a metaliurgicai W.
No must think chiefly IN terms OF meta.
and forget frontal man-power for the
moment, If we ale 20 unQeIs Ia"u
dearly what is 20 be expected. Ger
many must turn out heavy batteries
with superhuman energy. J nat Is "haI
She will do. Behind HindenburG are
+be cannon foundries. hrupps mus
forge an iron club for Hercules.
Germans Must Depend on Guns.
Hindenburg, IN other words, viii de-
nord not on his strategical IDEAS Du'
on his guns for all his hopes OF endlhg
tho present wears fighting, IN spite OF
al with a pale winter sunshine OF
German glory. That this Is no vague
or doubtful line Of speculation mo-
rnent's reflection viii show. Even u
tho old marshal were a Napoleon ne
co1ld not solve his problem by str@-
-ocicsl ideas. The possible ideas when
H. might execute on his own initiative
are limited and they are as OBVIOUS
% tho Allies as TO the German cen
Above all things, the Central Powers
for every sort Of military and economic
roaeon would ike = crush Rumahia
md seize her territory. That IS PLAN
enough. But that cannot be done by
st.ack from any unexpected direction
or by any brilliancy o. complneq
ynanpuvves. II can only be attempted
nv irving to accumulate an over"neiin,,
inc weight Of metal at some selected
noint or points Of the Russo-Rumanlan