Evening star., 1916-09-17
Expected a Quick Victory.


Balkans Not even Constantine can
keep his people neutral when it be-
comes a little clearer. if it does. that
allied success is assured. Greek en-
trance would add 100000 men to allied
armies. 1t would be a new burden for
the German to bear, for only Germany
could find new troops. 1t would be an
added incentive to the Bulgar to aban-
don losing cause. The Bulgar is not
in the war because of any fondness of
the Bulgar for the Teuton. He enlisted
because he expected German victory.
and quick victory. He decided Ger
many could give him Macedonia after
one campaign. He has got Macedonia.
but there IL no sign of an end of the
campaign and some doubt as to the per-
manency of his stay.
In the next few days and weeks two
things are to be watched-the Sarrail
army at Salonfki. tho Russo Rumanian
army in the DobrudJa. The advance OF
the latter will draw of troops from the
front of the former and SarraiFs army
Is sure to move. 1t may move up the
Vardar valley toward Skoplie and Nish,
1t may move east along the shore of the
Aegean toward Saloniki and Constan-
tinople If the Greeks enlist. their
army will surely be sent this way to
conquer the seaboard regions which
they hoped to keep In 1913. the re-
gions between the Mesta and the Marit-
"a, which are peopled by Greeks mian-
ly, or were before the Balkan wars.
Forecasts German Strategy.
Meantime tho Russo -Rumanian army,
II 1t is able tp progress at all. will
either move south along the shore of
the Black sea. taking Varna and Bur-
gas and turning the Balkan mountains,
or 1t will move west along tho Danube,
aiming at Sofia. In either case its COM
munications will be assured by sea or
by the Danube. We may guess that
this army will not get very far before
there will be political disturbances in
Bulgaria and possibly very complete
change in Bulgarian alignment But
we must assume also that in the very
nature of the case Germany will make
every effort to check the advance. for
political rather than military reasons.
II she can bring enough troops to this
front and win a sufficiently complete
success she will take tho pressure Off
the Hungarians and compel the Ruma-
mans to recall their troops from Tran
sylvania to defend Bucharest and the
Dobrudja. The first German opera
tions about Tutracan and Silistria fore
cast Just such a strategy.
once more, as year ago at this time
Bulgaria holds the center Of the stage.
It is safe to assume that she will not
desert her allies as long as she feels
that they have an even chance Of vic
tory. because she will have to give up
most of her Serbian conquests. If Ru-
mania were defeated she might count
on taking all the Rumanian seacoast,
and she owes Rumania a lesson for the
incidents of 1913. Finally, the Bulgar
dream of hegemony in the Balkans,
realizable In a measure II the central
powers retain their hold in the penin-
sula, will disappear II the allies win
and Bulgaria will be smaller than Ru-
mania or Serbia. She may even be
smaller than Greece, II Greece gets on
the winning side In time.
But II Bulgaria deserts or is con-
quered then the collapse Of the Austro-
German influence in the Balkans and
in the near east will be instant and the
fall of Constantinople will not long be
delayed. Incidentally the liberation of
Serbia will be prompt and the gap in
the circle Of fire and steel about the
central powers. opened by Mackensen a
year ago, will be closed. The war has
seen few more dramatic moments than
the present and few more interesting &
campaigns than that which is now
opening in the Balkans.