The Birmingham age-herald. [volume] (Birmingham, Ala.) 1902-1950, 1916-10-30
Some Conservative Specula-
ton Holds That Middle
West Will Decide Result
in Contest
DEMOCRATS EXPECT
SEVERAL NORMALLY
REPUBLICAN STATES
Has Proved Surpris-
ing Disappointment and
Has Failed to Measure Up
to Expectations
BY HUGH w. ROBERTS


The presidential campaign, it is prob
able has been completed. Within the
week intervening between this date and
the Tuesday of the election, it is the best
opinion of political observers that no ma
terial changes in the situation can be
wrought
There seems to be general admission
that the race between Mr.. Wilson and
Judge Hughes is exceedingly close-one of
unusually doubtful issue. That political
headquarters which declares itself abso-
lutely confident of the result, talks for
possible effect. 1t is true that the rival
reason to be hopeful.
From the democratic standpoint, it is
unfortunate that nothing has occurred to
indicate that the President will carry
New York. On the other hand, there
are and have been indications that he
will win Ohio and even Wisconsin. There
are causes which impress one with an
idea that Indiana is not responding with
its usual democratic enthusiasm. Illinois
is regarded as battle-ground.
WEST MAY DECIDE.
1t is an interesting fact that. according
to some usually conservative speculation,
the populous middle west will be respon-
sible for the next President of the
United States. According to this author
ity Hughes will win in the east from
Maine to Maryland; Wilson will sweep
the south from Maryland to Arizona and
along with the other states, will take in
Kentucky and Missouri. In the far west,
California, Utah and the Dakotas are
given to Hughes; Nebraska to Colorado
and Montana to Wilson.
1t is obvious that if the foregoing is
materially correct, Ohio, Indiana, Wis
consin, Michigan and Illinois will hold
the balance of power. There is reason
to believe that in the five states men
toned, Wilson has the advantage-al-
though it is improbable that he will
make a "clean sweep Speculation in
Washington and New York puts Ohio and
Wisconsin in the democratic column In
the latter state, Senator LaFollette hav-
ing voted for the Underwood tariff bill.
the Adamson eight-hour bill and other
controversial democratic legislation, is
confronted by the necessity of defending
that legislation. Inconsequence he is
perforce making very strong and very
telling democratic speeches.
INDIANA DEBATABLE
Democrats claim that Wilson will carry
Michigan. Reasons which appeal, how
ever, are not given. Republicans declare
that Illinois will vote heavily for Hughes
although they make the significant adj
mission that on account of doubt as to
the woman vote, "they are not absolutely
confident
The headquarters of both campaign
committees tentatively admit that In
diana is debatable. 1t is the home state
of both vice presidential nominees and
both have unusually strong and agrees
sive followings. Inasmuch as Indiana has
always been regarded as more nearly a
normal democratic state than any other
above the Mason and Dixon line, it's pres
ent debatable status is source of demo-
cratic worry. 1t is believed in the east,
however, that Indiana, after wavering,
will finally drop into the democratic col
unn 1t is interesting in this connec-
ton, however, to state that it is thought
probable that democrats will lose one
senator in Indiana and it is reported that
Mr.. Taggart stands a better chanc6eof
victory than Mr.. Kern 1Sk
If the foregoing speculation in es
tial features is correct, it is apparent
that Mr. Wilson, to offset the loss of
New York and carry the election, must
win practically the total electoral vote
of the middle west This is true, de-
spite the fact that the electoral vote of
Ohio and Wisconsin equals that of New
York
DESERVES REELECTION
While it Is obviously true that the race
is doubtful, there is no question but that
if any man deserved reelection, Wilson
does. For the legislative achievements
during his administration can scarcely
be paralleled in the history of the ma
ton. There is and has been peace The
country-and especially the sections of
the country where republicans are pow
erful-is glutted with prosperity. There
Is apparently no reason why intelligent
American should not 'let well enough
alone; why they should swap horses
in the middle Of stream"
One in Europe, approaching the fore
going facts. would instantly conclude
that Wilson would handily win. That
person could not, however, take into con-
sideration that. as rule the republicans
are stronger, much stronger. at the polls
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