Evening journal. [volume] (Wilmington, Del.) 1888-1932, 1916-08-26
GOOD GROUND FOR CONFIDENCE.


THE Republican Publicity Association, through its
President Hon. Jonathan Bourne. Jr, gave
out important statement at its Washington head
quarters yesterday II shows that II the country votes
At the Presidential election this year It voted at the
Congressional election of 1914 Hughes will carry Cali
fornia, Colorado. Connecticut Delaware Idaho, Illinois,
Iowa Massachusetts,. Michigan, Minnesota. Nevada New
Hampshire. New Jersey, New Mexico. New York, North
Dakota Oregon. Pennsylvania, Rhode Island. South
Dakota Utah, Vermont Washington. West Virginia. Wis
1onsin and Wyoming.
These States have 2s6 votes in the electoral college
majority Of which is only 266.
In each OF these states two years ago the Republican
Congressional ticket received clear plurality votes
In these States combined the Republican candidates for
Congress received 4O15157 votes while the Democratic
candidates Congress received only 3l3256S votes
the total Republican plurality being s425S9.
In each Of these States in 1914 there was an organ
lied Progressive complimentary in Nevada, North
Dakota Utah and Wisconsin although in Utah there was
Fusion ticket running in opposition 10 the Repub-
cans. The total Progressive vote in these States
746.S41 and the combined Republican Progressive
plurality over the Democrats was i6SS9S0
Two years ago there five States-lndiana. Kan
sas, Maine Nebraska and Ohio-whioh are fairly TO be
,lassed as normally Republican, but where the Demo-
atc Congressional ticket received plurality OF votes
ranging from bcggarly 800 in Maine, impressive
i2752 in Indiana But the Progressive in each OF
these five States far in the difference
tween the Republican and Democratic totals and ranged
rom 3111 in Nebraska 10 10000 in Indiana In Kansas
he Progressive vote in 1914 amounted to 744f Ohio
I 47,sS1 and in Maine il 1885 These Ave
States will cast So votes in the electoral college How
will they vote this year?
The statement adds that hopeful Democratic statis-
icans estimate the division OF the former Progressive
1ote upon different proportions-in each instance how
giving the long end OF il TO the Republicans and in
10 instance claiming that more than so per cent of the
Bull Moose will support Wilson. Upon this extreme
hypothesis let examine the vote OF the five States
where Democratic plurality found in the Congress
honal elections of 1914
The Republican vote Of Indiana in 1914 was 2331 40.
the Progressives casting 10000, and the Democrats
g5s92 Dividing the Bull Moose strength on the basis
Of seventy and thirty per cent respectively the Re
pubcans and the Democrats the vote Of Indiana this
year should be: Republican 2s6,162; Democratic
so2so4 The margin is too small for comfort on either
side; and Indiana must remain fighting territory
until the votes are counted The Progressives-aided
It said by Democratic funds-are maintaining an or
ganzaton in that State but competent observers be-
eve that from SIS to 80 per cent the Moose will vote
for Hughes and that the number who will support Will
son Is negligible Upon this basis Indiana should 20
for Hughes and Fairbanks by nearly 100000
The seyenty-th:rty division applied to Kansas would
give that State to the Republicans by the following fig
ures Republican. 24O.2i5; Democratic. 21sI62
In Maine the result would be- Republican 72sss;
In Nebraska the figures would show: Republican.
1895; Democratic 1880 This is another hair-lne
Of demarcation-but there is Bull Moose ticket in
Nebraska this year. and while the contest will he a
hard one the indications that Hughes will carry the
State.
The same division of the Progressive vote in Ohio
would produce figures for 1916 in this WISE Republic
can. 511.03S: Democratic. 49S653
at is therefore. fair assumption that in addition to
retaining the States which disclosed clear Republican
plurality in 1914-and which a majority Of the
electoral coege-tbe Republican ticket will this year
gain Kansas. Maine and Ohio without question and Sc
cure for Hughes and Fairbanks total 326 out of the
5Sl votes in the electoral college-with than
hghtng chance TO add the % votes OF Indiana and Ne
braska TO that number, making $40, a majority of