Evening star., 1916-06-11

Is
To believe that the Germans are vast
ing their men on an idle and foolish
military venture is absurd. 1t In the
fact that no profit worth the price has
itself that has puzzled not merely ordi-
nary observers. but soldiers and military
critics alike Verdun has come to have
a value in the minds OF the world that
no fortress has had for a generation.
but this as a mere illusion. for Verdun
Is no longer a fortress and has no value
itself
- A Spring Offensive.
Very frequently one hears in German
quarters that the allied spring drive
has been prevented by the Verdun at
tack. There never was any intention
on the part of the allies to attack in
the spring. for the simple reason that
Russia could not be munitioned. A
year ago Germany attacked Russia in
the spring. and Russian lack OF mum.
tions partly contributed to the great
Russian defeat. Nowhere in Europe
attack would come before July, and II
was often postponed. even to next year.
We have lately seen the Serbian
army. now reorganized. moved to
activity aiong this front. and the fore
cast of an allied attack here has led
the Germans and Bulgariane to seize
Greek forts, with the alleged purpose
of forestalling an attack. There has
been a slight resumption of activity
at points on the Russian 'front.' but
nothing Of any real moment. As for
the British. they have been practically
quiescent during the whole winter and
spring. Only in recent days have there
been printed rather crude hints that
the British are ready to attack when
Joffre gives the word.
Z Ready When the Time Comes.
{ But ii is. well to remember that the
British have been willing, IL not wholly
ready, to attack at any moment they
were asked by the French to attack
ever since the verdun attack began.
They have supplied a new army to oc-
cupy the Arras sector. there are many
hints ahoat that they will presently
take over the Roye sector and thus
hold the line from the Disc to the
User. All talk about British unwill-
ingness to share in the conflict or bear
their share of the losses is moonshine.
Much of it is malicious gossip intended
to influence French opinion and thus
help the German game. which is to pro-
woke a premature offensive.
1t Is entirely likely that there will be
no attack until August: 1t is more than
conceivable that the attack will not be
made until September, although this
would shorten very materially the Pc
riod in which a successful offensive could
be pushed home, but 1t is also plain that
within month now the allies will be
able to move as they planned, unless
IN this time the Germans finally break
the French nerve or drive the French
politicians into demanding British 49,
ton in advance of the agreed time.
Verdun Attack a Failure.
Unless there is some explanation %
far successfully hidden from all observ.
ers, this German attack upon France
must now be reckoned as a failure
wholly analogous to that at the User
and Ypres. 1t has gained no ground Of
any value or any considerable extent; IL
has not inflicted losses on the French at
all equal to those borne by the Ger
mans. and it has neither broken French
nerve nor provoked a premature allied
attack Its sole result to date has been
the purchase of a few square miles OF
French territory. tho capture of some;
Frenchsprisoners. perhaps 10000 wound
ed and unwounded, and a number or
guns. The total French loss may be
2O0,000-it is not more-and the Ger
man Is not less than 100000. On this
basis France can afford to sell the Ger
mans more square miles of French ter
ritory for another month OF two. until
the great attack comes.
When this attack does come. IL II
comes. the British will have to bear o
share of the cost based upon the French
sacrifices now. They will have to do
more than was originally planned be-
for the Verdun operation: less will be.
asked of the French. But British re-
serves in men are far greater than
French. and while France has seen her
reserves reduced with the German,
there has been no reduction in British
and Russian reserves and the balance is
against the Germans.
The only explanation / can find for
the persistence of the Germans in the
Verdun affair is their conviction that
the French are about done. that the al
lies are still far from ready for a gem
eral attack. and that they can still pre-
cipitate one under conditions most ia
vorable to themselves, 1 do not believe
even the, fear of the effect at home Of a
failure would lead the German high
comJaand to continue its terrible sacri-
hces. Fhe'-German high command has
made mistakes, but it has never made
such. q blvpder as this would be, and il
has. .freQuently shown a skill and quick
ness to. change its strategy when it had
been check ed