New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-04-23
BY j. L. GARNIN.
Try Cable "a The Tribune ]


London, April eat any moment
the main drama of the war may shift
from west to east. Much, indeed, in
the destinics Of Europe may be decided
in the next two or three months be-
tween the Baltic and the Black Sea.
Recent information from excellent
sources, both here and in Petrogrsd,
enable me, without breach Of discre-
ton, to throw more light on the past
and future Of the Russian situation.
The ablest Russian opinion believes
that the wrestle of Titans is only COM
ing now. There is hushcd thrill
about it. II Russia remains unthrown
three months hence, all anxiety as to
the course OF the land war will be
over.
What are the prospects? No seri-
Gus soldier, either in Russia or Ger
many, regards them lightly. Among
the Allies, neither the real nature OF
the situation nor the overshadowing
Importance of the issue about to be
tried is often recognized.
Germans Ignore Russia.
Let US distinguish between the outer
skin and the physiology of the eastern
situation. For long time the Ger
man press has contained as little as
possible about Russia Those who
know Germany best believe this elabo-
rate indifference 10 be pretence too
obvious TO mislead.
One fact is fundamental After Yer
dun. the west must be held impreg
nsble TO German attack. The east
must also prove as impregnable in
the coming conflict.
In that simple statement there is
more than meets the eye. Russia
alone, if not shattered before autumn,
will be sure of having next year rifles
for about 100000 troops, with heavy
guns in proportion. The consequences
are plain.
Russia already is sending masses
of troops by sea Ito the western thea
tire. The obstinate German calculation
upon the exhaustion Of French num-
bers is thus utterly and forever frus-
trated. The Allies already are on the
point of possessing what they have
never vet had-a superiority in the
field of two to one. The Turkish En-
pire is lettering; the Balkans arc on
the point Of being completely recov-
cred.
Next Attack in East.
Russia has become strong again with
70 81 81
ser's higher command. II would be con-
trsry to everything we know of Tcu
tonic psychology if Russia were to be
allowed TO build up power, TO pile up
guns, to equip million after million of
men.
This is the problem TO which General
Falkenhayn and the great General staff
have been giving their most intense
energies since the failure to carry Yer
dun in one week by mighty coup. |
Some of the ablest judges ! know do
not doubt il for a moment. If they are |
right, we arc near the topmost crisis !
)f the war. We shall soon know.
Russia looks first TO battle for the |
approaches of Petrograd. From the be- |
ginning of April there has been daily |
of attacks. On land floods |
vas also an even chance that the first /
German movements would be on sea.
Spring Time of Peril.
There is always an awkward interval .
after the first breaking Of the frost
ock in these regions. For a couple of
weeks in an April like the present the
currents in the Gulf of Riga are heavy
With masses of drifting ice. While they
asst the Russians cannot lay mines, nor
an British submarines operate with
he same efficiency as last year. II the
iulf of Riga, with its narrow entrances,
we're once mastered by the enemy, any
evcrsal of the situation would be very
lificult for the Russians.
The Russians also assume a deter
mined German attempt would be made
o land on the eastern, or Livonisn,
hore. Here Pernau, the port and rail
way terminus at the top of the Gulf, is