Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1916-10-22

It's make as l can support by eV
represents a personal conclusion.
they need no discussion and will prob
ably stand with little question.
What the Figures Mean.
Having thus set forth an estimate of
casualties. 1t remains to point out
something of their meaning. At the
moment when the war broke out the
four great powers united against Ger
many and Austria had a European pop
ulation of around 300.ooo.ooo. The COM
bfned population of Austria and Ger
many was 120.000,000. Now. there is
no question more keenly debated than
that of the proportion Of total ma
tfonal population which can be reck-
oned as capable of bearing arms. II
may be 10 per cent. 1t may be IL. but 1t
will be the same for all nations. ap-
the outset of the war the allies had
available a man power Of S0,000.OO0 the
central powers man power OF 12.0OO.-
900. II the allies have now suffered
casualties amounting to 100000, one
third Of their whole force has been
temporarily or permanently incapaci-
tated. But II the central powers have
suffered casualties amounting to 8,000.-
600, two-thirds Of their man power has
been temporarily or permanently In
capacitated.
Now in the case of the German off,
cia1 figures, we saw that the total of
permanent casualties, with relation to
total casualties. was so per cent. Ac-
cepting this ratio, We may say that
the permanent loss of the allies has
ers 100000. In other words, the al
lies have permanently lost one-sixth
Of their man power. the central powers
one-third. And this ratio will remain
are able to put 10 per cent or IL per
cent Of their population into the field.
Weaker Force Must Lose.
Here is the foundation of all that has
been said about attrition sincesth war
began. In war of exhaustion the
weaker force must ultimately lose il
the war continues steadily a trial of
endurance. In the end. if the Germans
continue to lose at the rate Of a tferd
Of their man power in the time when
the allies are losing at the rate of one
sixth. the Germans and their allies
must succumb. And in the first twenty
six months of the world war this has
been approximately the ratio of losses
in the two camps.
Now British critics, notably Mr..
Hilaire Belloc, who follows the French
as well as the British official opinion
fairly closely. but relies mainly on the
French, assert that the German and
Austrian losses have already been much
higher. while German and Austrian
critics will place the French losses. as
well as the British, materially higher
than l have. 1t will be recalled that l
accepted the German estimate of Rus
sian losses, with but an insignificant
Perhaps the facts lie with
the larger estimates made on both
sides.
Needed to Hold Lines.
But what I want now to emphasize
is that Mr.. Belloc and his followers be-
lieve the German and Austrian losses
have been SO much larger than we have
estimated that they assert the central
powers are already facing a shortage
of men. What they mean is this AS
it stands it requires not much less than
6, 900. 900 men to hold the lines of the
central powers, eliminating the Bull
gars and Turks. If the permanent loss
Of the central powers has been only
4. 100000, my figures. they still have
100000 left. and 100000 over the
number needed to hold their present
lines.
But II their permanent loss has been
900. 900, then they have left no bal
ance over the necessary 100000. If
it has been 100000, their balance is
only a million. which is not more than
six months supply. When you read
reports of French and British critics OF
the Belloc school. declaring that Ger
many is facing an absolute decline in
man power, you will see that this
grows out of an estimate of the total
lists of the central powers as
more than so per cent above
ny own estimate.
Allies Have Big Reserve.
Now 1t would be possible to fix the
ime in which, granted the central pow
.rs did not in the meantime win the
var, they would have to shorten their
ines, If we had the exact figures Of
heir losses. They would have to
horten their lines because they would |
ack men to hold the present extent. |
n this time no such shortage could be |
cit by the allies, because they started |
With a man power two and a half times
s great-that is. a total man power |
Il 30,000.000 against ,0O0-and |
ave never had in the field at any time |
900, 900 permanently and have 5000, 900 |
n the field. they now have a further
upply Of Ii. ooo,0 900, as against 3,Ooo.o 900
or the central powers, IL our compu-
alton is approximately correct.
We do know that the population of
he allied nations is two and a half
ines that of the central powers. We i
O know that their losses have been, If |
ctually greater than the German and
austrian, relatively much smaller, re-
ard being had for their total man
over, and this means that they are
ertain to have reserves to call upon
yhen the reserves of the central pow
rs have been exhausted.
Take a simple Illustration. Eight
len are fighting five. Behind the eight
re twenty-five, ready to take their
laces; behind the five are only seven
/. the first Ave men disposed of the
rst eight, while exhausting them
elves. eight more will take the place
( the first, five more the place OF then
rst fve. But then the second eight
iii have fourteen behind them, the
scond five only two. i,
Two Years More Of War.
Now, If the central powers have lost
My 4,ooo, 600 out Of 1900. ooo-that is,
lost them-in the first
venty- six months Of the war they may
able to go on for something less
IAN two years more, losing at the /
inc rate, before they will be unable to !,
ut s. OOO, 900 in the field. They will go
niger n their losses are not as great,
ut they will go q shorter time if, az
Gems to be the Case now. their losses 9
lcrease with greater pressure on all ,
Those who. like myself. believe that /
10 German and Austrian Losses ara I