The silver state. [volume] (Winnemucca, Nev.) 1909-1925, 1916-08-29
BOURNE PREDICTS
REPUBLICAN VICTORY

following statement at washington
headquarters:
If the country votes at the presi-
dental election this year as it voted
at the Congressional election Of 1914
Hughes will carry California, Colo
RADIO. Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho,
Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts,, Michi-
gan Minnesota, Nevada, New Hamp-
shire, New Jersey New Mexico, New
York, North Dakota, Oregon, Penn
sylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota,
Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Vir-
ginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
These states have 2S6 Sotes in the
electoral college, a majority of which
is only 266.
In each of these states, two years
ago, the Republican Congressional
ticket received a clear plurality of
votes. In these states combined the
Republican candidates for Congress
received 4,075,157 votes, while the
Democratic candidates for Congress
received only 3,132,56S notes.-the to-
tai Republican plurality being 942,5S9.
In each of these states in 1914 there
was an organized Progressive cam
paign-except in Nevada, North Da-
kota, Utah, and Wisconsin, although
in Utah there was a Fusion ticket
r,n,irr ~ oruoai4iop 70 tho DapuhIf-
cans. The total Progressive vote in
these states was 1854; and the COM
bined Republican Progressive plural
ity over the Democrats was 1,6SS, $50.
Two years ago there were five states
Indiana, Kansas, Maine, Nebraska
and Ohio-which are fairly to be
classed as normally Republican but
where the Democratic Congressional
ticket received a plurality of votes
ranging from a beggarly 365 in Maine
to an impressive AZ, in Indiana
But the Progressive vote in each of
these five states was far IN excess of
the difference between the Republican
and Democratic totals, and ranged
from Sill in Nebraska to 90,040 in
Indiana. In Kansas the Progressive
vote in 1914 amounted to 74,441; in
Ohio it was 1891; and in Maine it
was 1885.
These five states will cast 63 votes
in the electoral college. How will
they vote this year?
Hopeful Democratic statisticians es-
innate the division of the former Pro-
gressive vote upon different proper
tions-in each instance, however, Civ
ing the long end of it to the Republi-
cans and in no instance claiming that
more than 80 per cent of the Bull
Moose will support Wilson. Upon this
extreme hypothesis, let us examine
the vote of the five states where a
Democratic plurality was found in the
Congressional elections of 1914.
The Republican vote of Indiana in
1914 was 233,140, the Progressiyes
casting 90,040 and the Democrats 275,-
892. Dividing the Bull Moose strength
On the basis of seventy and thirty per
cent, respectively to the Republicans
and Democrats, the vote of Indiana
this year should be: Republican, 1885,
162; Democratic, 302. 904. The margin
is too small for comfort on either
side; and Indiana must remain as
fighting territory until the votes are
counted. The Progressives-aided, it
is said, by Democratic funds-are
maintaining an organization in that
state; but competent observers believe
that from IS to 80 per cent of the
Moose will vote for Hughes and that
the number who will support Wilson
are negligible. Upon this basis. Indi-
ana should go for Hughes and Fair
banks by nearly 10000.
The se~yenty-thirty division applied
to Kansas would give that state to
the Republicans by the following fig
ures: Republican, 240.215; Democrat
ic, 21S,162.
In Maine the result would be: Re
publican, 72,SSS; Democratic 66,071.
In Nebraska tn figures would show
Republican, 1886; Democratic, 49,
$50. This is another hair-line Of de-
marcation-but there is no Bull
Moose ticket in Nebraska this year;
and while the contest will be a hard
one. the indications are that Hughes
will carry the state.
The same division of the Progress
i've vote in Ohio would produce figures
for 1916 in this wise: Republican, SILL
03S; Democratic, 49S,65S.
II is. therefore. a fair assumption
that, in addition to retaining the
states which disclosed a clear Repub-
lican plurality in 1914-and which as
sure a majority of the electoral col