The Washington times., 1916-06-18
X Factors Upset
Political Prophets
Progressive Party Vote and German-Amercan Influence
Cloud The Dope Sheet Of November Returns
Made by Wise Politicians.

suspicion might be raised. and that IL
hardly possible.
These Examinations bling the specuia-
tors down to the sites that are more
generally sccepteI as the neids Of
clearly lead all the others In the public
mind.
California is put into this list az an
nllowanc2 TO the uncertainties of the
party's vote and attitude. II Hiram
johnson SHOULD take up the standards
which Theodore Roosevelt has cast
down. the third party vote in that state
toTai vote to President Wilson. y In ' isia
California split It's vote. Roosevelt get
ting eleven and Wilson two votes. The
swing In California has been strongly
S Se state ,S shs tRs p,
Pennsylvania which the tariff talk
has such an appeal as II has in Califor-
MIA. and strong planks on defense have
an especial appeal for that state. II
Ing around johnson II would so into the
Republican column.
What Will Kansas Do?
Kansas Is placed in the doubtful
column. for much the same reason. II
10 the hot bed of what II left of vigor-
breaks. and though Henry Allen has
swung back already into the Republican
party. William Allen White. Victor
Murdock and other considerable fac
tors are still unhitched and they have
public mind unsettled and reSeiiious.
Missouri II placed In the doubtful
column largely because Of the uncer.
tainty yet Of the German vote. IL
son. and Its friendiiness to Hughes.
II might swing into the Republican
column. But then, again. such antago-
nisms and friendlines may have an ef-
feet .s,o on other elements In Missouri
doubtful column. II and Montana. Ne
vada. and West Virginia may be AFFECT
ed profoundly by the way the big mining
interests line up.
The Border States.
Maryland and West Virginia are Dor.
der doubtful States. the Democrats
having the best Of It. one would say, In
Maryland
Oklahoma comes in the same list
with leaninss. 1t would seem. toward
the Democrats.
New Mexico and Arizona will be sf.
fected by the Mexican war situation.
Idaho should 20 Republican, and South =
Dakota. too, but they are not certain.
Nebraska is In the throes OF liquor
Tight also that may AFFECT the nationa
election. The Democrats, however. seem
to be the party especially affected ad.
versely. and with them split wide oper
Bryan Hitchcock. It would seem tina,
Nebraska should go to the Republican
r New Jersey Is senerally placed b,
Eastern newspaper correspondents Ii
the Republican column. 1t IL however
the home State Of President Wilson, aYlt
the democrats may be expected Il
make hot fight for It. Still. 1
would not be surprising to see him lose
Such a preliminary outline Of the STU
alton indicates. that the brunt OF, the
campaign 10 going to fall on New York.
Indiana. Missouri. Kanaas. California,
virginia-douDtful States in this list
and also on Illinois. Michigan, Iowa,
Washington. and Wisconsin. important
States placed IN the Republican column
in this preliminary survey.
Kentucky may also receive special at.
Might Add ~" Factor.
Besides the * and "Y" which
stands systematically for the uncertain.
ties of the Progressive and German.
American alliance factors. there should
possibly be added q Il" to carry into
the field OF speculative analysis the un.
by those OF the 1000 900 enfranchiset
, women who viii vote. II In estimated
that 80 10 90 PEI cent Of them will vote
and II this ID ,fe case and they line uY
behind one side to any great extent
they may exert q very great infiuenct
, In a few Staten.
Women vote in Illinois. California
Washington. Colorado. Utah, Idaho
Arizona. Kansas. Oregon. Nevada. ant
Montana.
The women hsve not in the past
shown powers Of organization. A new
political influence has, however. ap
peared in the arena. It Ia the Con
gressional Union. II Is immensely
practical In its operations and decidedly
militant In IA political way. II has de
veloped good orators and leaders In tn,
last year or two. and may prove to b.
n considerable factor in this election II
a few States. II would. however, b,
rather remarkable II II should be abl
in Its first national campaign TO exer
else a balance of power vote In an!
important State. However, II Is a fac
tor that Is taken into consideration b,
all who are trying to get line on tn,
lines Of battle before they are reall!
formed.