The Bridgeport evening farmer., 1916-01-08
WARS DURATION AFFECTS OUTLOOK.

SteePs rise of $50 points Quieting
down in the late autumn, when it was
thought that speculation might have
over discounted war-order results, a
strong undertone was nevertheless
maintained to the end, the railway list
which had heretofore been subordin-
ated to the industrials, tending to res
pond to notable increases in earnings
At times the unprecedented ease of
money became a burden to the banks
and rates ruled low Call loans fuc-
tuated within a narrow range, 1 Up to
8 per cent, and commercial paper,
never plenteous enough to meet de-
mand, ranged between 8 q 4 per cent.
Some choice paper, in fact, sold as
low as "a, low level never here
tofore reached.
Some Drawbacks.
Tt would not be correct to draw from
the above condensed summary the idea
that progress was practically unin-
terrupted and that no obstacles pre-
scented themselves. The strain of the
later months of 1914 and the earlier
months of 1915 is too fresh in mind
II. need mention. The benefits de-
rived from the war abroad were at
first chiefly discernibIe in the surplus
cereal and food producing sections of
the west One section of the coun-
try, the south, was especially hard
hit by the low price paid for cotton,
itself an inheritance of the war, and
trade and collections in that section
were slow to recover slower, indeed,
than anywhere else except the Pacific
NORTHWEST, which, like the south, was
hurt by the wars Interruption of
export trade in lumber, even yet sees
room for Improvement in this direc-
ton. The south, of course, profited
by forced diyersifcation of crops and
the Industrial activity of the mfd-year
and later. Trade was best early in
thu
thence the improvement born of active
war order demand spread to the in
dIstria1 centers of the east, middle
west and south, and later, with a
higher price for a smaller cotton crop
and the renewal Of demand for lun-
south picked UP well. By early fall
the trade movement was going for
ward with. very slight irregularities
III a harmonious advance to a record
finish. W
The business world here did not es-
ton that was wrought in all trade
and industry by the outbreak of the
war. Failures, like trade and indus
try broke many records. Nothing
like the total of failures recorded last
year was ever before seen, the increase
over 1914, tn highest previous record, |
being ID per cent; but in this CON-
nection it needs to be stated that the
first full year of the war saw the ca
sualtieS greatest, and since early au-
tunn they showed a tendency to de-
cline from the high figures of the pre- |
viouS year. There was especially /
great liquidation at the south, which,
led in the proportion of failure in
creases, but business mortality the /
country over took heavy toll from
firms and corporations which en-
barked in business in the past de-
eade, and the annual percentage of |
those falling to those in business was |
the largest since 1898. Liabilities were |
rot 50 large as in years like 1914, 1913, |
I 9OS, 1907 or 1893. but still were very
heavy. Some of the largest single
suspensions were heritages of past |
years poor management or over-ex-
tension. These factors as well as hos
tile legislation may be said to be re-
dected in a number of railway embar-
EASEMENTS, the bulk of these, by the I
way, being in the southwest. and 1915
ranks second in volume of defaulted
railway liabilities.
Looking Forward.
The war buIks so large in the worlds
affairs at present, and 50 much Of
our present prosperity is due to it.
that the future of this country's trade
and industry depends largely upon
the questions of when and how peace
will return to the world. At the
present writing peace seems rather
far distant, and if that view is cor
rect a continuance of insistent demand
for vast variety of American pro-
can be said to be that exists in this
" or1d of change. Indeed, if our flu
lure ability to supply the things E.1-
rope needs to carry on war were
equa1ed by our cans to deliver
(ships) or the buyers power to pay
for goods bought, there would seem
g be no limit to our ability to graw
Itch at our European neighbors' ex-
pense. AS to the first named draw
back, it is well to note that we are
because we have been and are at
oeace-now the owners Of the second
argest merchant marine on the ocean
acquired through legislation made
workable through war, and our ship
ards bid fair to increase this mer
camille navy by 100000 tons during
he coming year. AS to the means
IF paying the vast sums the war is
costing and will cost our neighbors, a
arge part of which must be spent
With u.s. there is more room for doubt
OUR willingness to take our own secu-
titles back is unquestioned, but wheth-
n we will be able to absorb further
arge be1Iigerent loans is open to some
question. This matter of payment
became acute last August, and may
we'll have to be SQuarely. met as to
whether we will lend in order that our
may buy from US. All ]
hese thoughts, of course, flow from !
he theory that the war is to continue
or a considerable time to come.
IT, contrary to present expectati ons
he war ends shortly, an entirely diff
erent set of problems will have to be
net. In that case a large surplus of
munitions would be sure to accumulate
lere. The campaign of preparedness
would seem likely to absorb a great ]
,art of these for a time, but ultimate
y a swinging back of much war-order
capacity to the arts of peace and a