davidaulloa/AmericanStories huggingface dataset:
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-01-04
GEORGE G. VAN TUiL, Jr., President
METROPOLITAN Trust Company:

That the banking and industrial out
look for 1916 could not be more ausplc-
ious is my opinion after "A careful anal
ysis Of the situation IN the United
States as /, exists to-day.
First and most important among the
many factors contributing the con-
dition of prosperity ! should place the
enormous crops with which we were
blessed in 1915. The tremendous value
Of these crops added 70 our aggregate
wealth not only makes us a conspicu-
Gus figure in the role Of nations, but
also creates an enormous buying power
on the part of the great agricultural
element Of our population. This. add
ing TO the wealth OF the farmers, rs IS
well known, stimulates growth and eN-
pansion on general lines and opens nm
unlimited field for new business. Heavy
movements of freight on the railroads
bring them greater revenue and H.
crease their buying power for rolling
stock, equipment, rails, etc. With the
prosperity Of the railroads better times
For manufacturing. industrial and re
tail business Of all kinds arc sure 70
follow This applies 10 all sections Of
the country.
Second only in Importance TO the
bountiful crops with which wc were
blessed is the factor involved IN the
enormous exports Of our foodstuNs and
manufactures. which have brought into
this country approximately S400.0O0.G00
o. foreign gold The addition Of this
vast hoard Of gold establishes for US
the basis Of immense credits abroad.
Because we have not yet ayailed our
selves OF these credits we have a large
supply OF cheap money in all our bank
ing centres. This money is available
for the expansion OF industrial enter
prises and the establishment OF new
manufacturing concerns. the necessity
for which has been evidenced by the
cutting OF Of various foreign importa-
tions, due 70 the devastating foreign
war.
Another factor Of unquestionable i'm
portance is the fact that this county
has not become involved in foreign
complications. Thus manufacturers IN
all lines Of trade have been able TO
enlarge and expand their production 20
meet the increased demand from both
domestic and foreign buyers. Large IN
creases in bank deposits throughout the
land provide funds available for loan
ing purposes. There IS no excuse for
any concern. properly financed. TO com
plain that il cannot obtain abundant
banking facilities.
All this tends to the inevitable con-
clusion that the outlook for our future
is brighter than has been for years.
Confined on .Ssse ~. column I.
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-01-04
\. J. aEMPHILI. Chairman Board oi
Directors. Guaranty Trust Tom
DlnN:

18th tho beginning OF the ycsr 1913
American financial history entered
upou now epoch. The course OF
e"crts throughout the year demonstrat-
ed the tremendous actual and potential
wealth Of the United state. The rest
Of the world was not slow IN giving US
notice that ii was looking % US 10 part
with some OF this wealth for their re-
lief. end VIC accordingly have given
evidence Of our willingness to recog
nize the new position IN which the
world catastrophe has placed US. FORT.
unately. the pre-war conditions mad
forced ne 20 economic. so that our &C
cumulations had reached very large
promotions even prior TO the enormous
balances that were built up by our eT-
port balances.
There IS no doubt now Of our ability
10 engage in foreign finance 10 very
large extent, and there is also no doubt
that the other nations will be forced
70 lean upon Us more and more. II We
recognize this mutual interdepeEdence
the commerce Of the United States Will
attain proportions which we never even
dreamed OF and our wealth will CORE
spondingly increase.
In order 10 maintain our position as
creditor nation our people must re-
strain extravaganza in expenditures,
end as our wealth grows let 1t flow
freely 10 other peoples. There seems
30 be no question but what the open
ing wear is full of promise. but our
people must broaden their horizon so
as 70 take in the rest fthe world.
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-01-04
Americas Trade Expansion.

I'm the United States there Is bet
,oy feeling. and there is much stronger
desire lust now than there has been
hitherto 20 make z serious effort for
obtaining large portion OF the
worlds trade" says 1.-THE London Sta
fist" 1--WE make no doubt that Amerl-
con efforts will be attended b. great
deal OF success. The United States.
happily for itself. is AZ peace with ell
the world. T. has had several exceed
inglv good seasons. Il has not engaged
in reckless speculation for long time.
now. And owing 20 the war. 1t has
been selling TO almost all the other
great powers on IN extraordinary
scale. The United States, therefore,
Is in a position in which it ought TO
be able to increase its own trade ma
teriaily. Especially il ought to be able
to capture much Of the trade carried
on formerly by Germany and Austria
Hungary. When the war is over their
male population will be SO ruinously
decreased that it will take them a long
time before they are able TO produce as
they did formerly. On the contrary,
the United States will continue grow
ing immensely in population. After
the war. 10 doubt. America will attract
large numbers. especially Of the beaten
enemy. There ought to be. therefore,
a material increase IN the American
proportion 81 The worlds trade"
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-01-04

torial" means products connected WIN
clothing. arming, munltlonlnR ana
cnuipping the warning nations 81 hu-
rope with the direct and auxiliary IN %
plements and accessories OF war. lhRt
amount probably represents 20 per
cent increase over the normal exports
Of the same material In me same
month in times Of peace.
Business doubt. hesitancy and de-
preston followed The outbreak o. the
var. and continued until the demand
for clothing for the armies. botn cot
ton and woollen. shoes, sadGler.. We
hicles OF all kinds. cotton FOR cNplos-
,ivcs. copper Of all kinds. food products.
both raw material and IN the form Or
rations. and other things 100 uumerou b
20 mention the insiStent demand for
all these set the wheels Of industry ia
motion and lifted Us out Of the stag
nation. born OF fear inspired by the
magnitude Of the war and the danger
Of our being drawn into the conflict.
The important fact is, the war orders
did lift us ont Of business depression
and we now have general business &C
tiyity and prosperity.
There is danger that our prosperity
NAV be turned into imitation. Il the
countries at war imitation is much nm
evidence and the winning policy for the
United States is 10 keep on the bed
rock of conservatism, so that, AZ the
close OF the war, we may be a stand
ard. as to range Of values and quaiitY
Of currency, for the inflated nations t.
work back 10.
am not one who fears tina: the I'M
portation Of too much gold "a going 10
give us trouble The continuous 70
turn TO us from abroad and the absorp-
ton BY our market Of American srcuri..
ties. plus the continuous granting o.
credit 10 Europe IN orc form or an
other. ia not sufficient 20 Offset the
enormous purchases by Europe. Al
ready over s40O.000.O00 gold has been
imported during the year 1915, and
cold must continue 20 come IN. ms
influx OF gold takes the place Of and
curtails the issuance Of paper money.
Tho ever-present possibility Of orr be-
coming involved in tho war, together
with the sober sense Of business men
and bankers will. believe. unite 70
prevent ufation and oyereTpansion
IN the United States. am confident
there is an era Of good bushes jus'
in front Of us.
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-01-04
JAMES :. ALEXANDER. chairman New
York Clearing House committee;
president National Bank of Conc
mCrce:

The circumstances under which we
enter tho now year are favorable.
The terrible conflict Wagcd on the
other side of the Atlantic has resulted
in an increased demand for the prod
ucts Of our fields and factories. and our
sales 20 the world are IN unprecedented
volume ard at full prices. The supply
of lOanahle funds in this country has
been greatly increased by tine operation
Of the Federal Reserve act and the re
ceipt of gold from abroad. Our COM
mercc has, therefore. been benefited by
the large and persistent demand for
our products for use both abroad and
at home and by tho low cost Of banking
credit.
General business activity has brought
about a decided improvement in the
railroad situation. and, with the better
understanding that Is apparently de
veloping between the government and
the railroads tho outlook for trans
portation interests is more Favorable
than for lone time past
The outlook seems 20 indicate a con
tinuation Of favorable factors for some
months TO come. Il is, however, the
iustments that will take place with the
return of normal conditions. We
should foster our domestic trade and
endeayor TO prevent our costs from
going too high, that We may be reason
ably prepared to meet European com
petition, which will be severe after the
termination 81 the war.
Tho United states is to-day the
brightest spot on the worlds map.
Present conditions and the outlook for
the immediate future are very favor
able. and there IS every reason 20 be-
lievc that the United States will per-
msnently hold in the future the ad-
vanced position as a commercial nation
now attained.
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-01-04

will return after the war. Ihat'
like so many other financial prob
lens. depends upon how far this war
Of attrition and exhaustion goes. Ii
we have peace early in the new year
and the world settles down, J shou'r
eypect II to return to the old ways.
unless indeed by the adoption Of a
protective tariff this country com
mits commercial suicide. An island
dependent for its wealth on free
markets and overseas trade cannot
afford TO initiate continent like
America or Zollvereiu like modern
Germany.
Another problem which is begin
Ming to exercise our minds is this
Can we expect the mark and the
franc mot 10 mention lire, roublc
and krone) to recover their values
after the war? That they viii do so
IN time may be conceded; but Will
he process be long or short? ms
question has a practical bearing Just
now for British investors in the new
French loan. who stand to get over
6 pcr cent Oh their money If the
franc return speedily to its old par
with the sovereign.
The question Of recovery Is. OF
course. all important. find the
most diverse views as to what Will
happen to trade after the war. when
some twenty millions Of soldiers Will
have to seek civil employment. VIII
the depletion Of stocks in the world
cause a demand great enough 10 re
absorb all this labor? After your
Civil War it is said a million SOL
diers were disbanded IN a few
lronths and were quickly absorbed.
But that fortunate result is usu-
ally ascribed to the wonderful open
ing up of vast eXpanse Of virgin
soil which called for farmers and
cultivators as the railways pushed
toward the Pacific Coast. Again,
after the Franco-German War, there
were couple of years Of very good
trade.
The Napoleonic wars. on the other
hand. we're followed by long period
G. exhaustion end poverty and mis-
cradle wages, of which Great Britain
had a full share. The load of tax
alton and debt weighed heavily upon
us. very much fear that we arc II
for period of acute suffering, and
that the exhaustion Of credit Will
prevent anything like a trade boom.
I And / agree with those who expect
n great food of emigrants to the
New World, especially from Ger
. MANY ana huSIl Id. " ~ AiiN 4'N'
( World be in a condition to find work
for them?
/ Let Us look in conclusion at the
financial and economic losses which
will have 20 be made good by future
industry and savings. Since the war
began most economists and financial
writer's have made or seen estimates
OF the cost. 1t is gueSswork or
largely guesswork, but there is
enough official information TO guide
us to approximate estimates, and ]
append here set OF figures TO in
d;cate what may probably be the
new war debts Of the six chief bel
ligerent powers on the assumption
that the war ends after lasting
about eighteen months:
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-01-04
Gold Disappears on Continent.

On the Continent Il mean IN bel
ligercnt countries) gold has long dis
appeared from sight. 1t is boarded
by the governments and by individ-
uals. In France many Of the towns
have issued small notes down to a
franc, and silver has been largely
boarded. I'm Belgium and in the oc-
cupied districts Of France small
squares Of thick paper are issued in
lieu of copper or nickel coins to as
Sist the distribution of food by the
Relief Commission. Redundancy Of
paper money in Germany and Aus
tria accounts for the growing weak
ness Of their exchanges. and is all
the more striking in view Of their
very small foreign commerce.
One question raised in connection
with the exchanges is whether the
business drawn from London to New
York, Amsterdam and Copenhagen
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-01-04

'ITIlIIf I"aTT' . H'I''I'
If the cost of pensions TO the fam
lies Of the dead and incapacitated
be added TO the above figures, your
readers will be able TO judge
for themselves whether speculation
about the impending bankruptcy Of
Europe is justified.
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-01-04
FRANK 4. VANDERBILT. president New
York Clearing House Association,
nresident National CIV Rank:

We all felt year ago that in the
present world situation we had no
precedents 10 guide US. think now we
feel even less that we have rules or
prccodents 20 go by. We have seen
such an upheayal in political and eco
homie affairs as We did not believe pos
sib!e, but we arc definitely in the midst
of ~. and problems of al uuthought
magnitude are confronting US. The
United States. apart n II is from the
horror Of the calamity. has had an cX-
coptjouai opportunity 20 promote its
commercial and industrial activities.
War business has. Of course, given
great impetus TO our domestic business.
IL remains for Va now 50 20 adjust our
selves that No may disassociate our
selves from dependence upon war bust
ness and prepare the way for CON
tinuine prosperity OF "A more rational
and normal character.
believe that we have reached the
stage in our domestic affairs and In
our position in world markets where We
are becoming more and more ndc-
pendent Of this war business. II We
exercise our diligence and II We co
operate effectively feel sure that the
prosperity which We have now will CON
tinue. There are grave political and
economic problems still 10 be solved.
That they are serious no one can deny,
but notwithstanding this fact our eco
monte position. our freedom from the
strain Of war and our intensive stud?
On foreign trade problems should as
sure to Us real prosperity not founded
uDon the misfortunes OF others, but
founded upon our energy and our de-
sire 90 render cooperative service IN
the world.
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-01-04


crnment TO issue Frs. 600,000,000 OF
treasury bonds. This was followed
by the law of February 10, 1915.
which authorized an issue of three
months and six months bonds for
the national defence. BY the end
Of November the issue had reached
Frs. S.319.OO0.O0O. The same law
authorized the government to issue
a second series Of bonds for the
national defence. payable in 1880.
They have produced Frs. 2.3S8,-
100000.
Gefundine the Dcht.
Evidently the government would
have TO convert these temporary
loans into consolidated funds. and
it is this operation which is being
carried out by the per cent loan
for which subscriptions were opened
on November %. From the pro-
cecGs Of this loan the advances made
by the Bank of France must be re
paid and it can be estimated that
the loan will absorb i'm the neighbOr-
hood Of Frs. 6.OO0.0OO,OOO Of the
short term bonds. A certain proper
tion Of the subscribers TO the short
term bonds have to keep their CAPT
tai liquid. The Frs. LOIS, 100000 OF
bonds put out in England do not
have to be paid until one year after
the conclusion of peace, while 1t IS
not necessary for the moment to be
preoccupied by the loan raised In
America.
The new per cent loan will,
therefore, pay off the Bank Of
France and absorb nearly all the
other outstanding obligations which
have 10 bc paid off before the end
Of the war. but in what measure will
il provide new resources for the gov
ernmcnt? That is the great
problem.
But. whatever has been the sue
cess Of the loan, one can he certain
that it has not wiped out the re-
sources Of the country. The French
government has not yet had recourse
TO additional taxes.
How TO Meet interest.
There is another question. How
will the interest on the public debt
be paid after the war? The interest
can be paid in a large part by ccono-
mics in the annual budget \ for
mer director Of the Ministry of Pub
lie Works, NJ. G. Schelle, published
in the journal DIES Economistes'
for January an article showing that
more than Frs. 1,300,000,000 could
be saved on the budget without in
jury to the public service.
Meanwhile, it is time for the mem
berS Of Parliament to show the cleo
tors, many of whom arc at the front,
that the Deputies and Senators can
also 40 something. They have voted
laws for the requiSition of grain;
they have given the state the mouop-
oily Of the importation Of grain; they
have given the projects the right TO
tax all foodstuffs and all materials
for heat and light. The French
people have up to lie present &C
cepted these measures with indif-
ference, for practice has shown that
the laws have for the most part been
impossible to put into effect. The
tables for the taxation and requlsl-
ton of grain have no less than SIX
ty-siy subdivisions!
The civilian population does not
doubt victory and it awaits it with
confidence. Last year the soldiers at
the front thought much Of the end
OF the war. This year they DO not
occupy themselves with such specu-
lations. They play their part with
patience and determined rcsolu-
lion. Victory must be ours That -
the order of the day.
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-01-04
\. BARTON HEPBl R\. chairman
Board of Directors Chase National
Danl

War material agcrecsting in value
over SCI 100000 was exported daring
the month Of November. war ma
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-01-04

Last Years Upturn
Has Promise for Mem
FOREIGN Trade Should Still Be Large, Even
Though Changed in Goods Shipped-Con-
hdence Restored Financial Strength
Creat-Business on Liquidated Basis

or the influences that nave made
1915 year not merely Of recovery but
Of actual prosperity ~ the close
our great foreign trade ~ expected 20
continue, changed though It may be IN
the nature Of our exports. We should
still supply what warning Europe needs
and what IL cannot furnish 10 neutra
countries. Phenomenal haryests which
have blessed W for two years rest WIN
nature, but what wise cultivation ana
generous credit for farmers can do
toward making big crops 1915 should
furnish Our banking strength, con
centrated through the now Federal Re
serve act, mas been increased by gold
imports OF some s4OO000,000 when
actually gold was less needed because
% our more efficient use OF bank re-
serves. The new year starts with what
was lacking At the beginning Of the
two years preceding great, expand
ing volume Of domestic business.
At such time OF world upheaval
there is lttle use in prophecy, but
should war continue IL is believed that
We must gain as we did last year, only
on a greater scale. Peace, ever a pos
sibility. will bring new problems as
We have 20 readiust ourselves TO the
different needs and to the renewed
competition of Europe. At least no other
great nation will be so well prepared
az pe to meet this period Of readiust-
meut. We overcame the unprecedented
shock Of outbreak Of war, and with all
the added strength we are sccumulat-
ing may look forward 20 resrrsnging
our affairs for peace basis without
apprehension.
fhe danger that we ourselves through
some misfortune might be drawn into
the war abroad seems remote. After
the siuking Of the Lusi'ania our dis
pute with Germany merely interrupted
security trading and did little 70 cur
tail general business beyond intensity
ing the spirit OF caution then prevail
ing. The Ancona attack brought SINH
lar trouble with Austria late in the
wear. but this complication was never
taken a. seriously here or throughout
tho country as in Washington.
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-01-04
Foreign Orders Immense.


A. the end Of 1914 orders from for
eign governments here for supplies
other than food we're reckoned ~
around $20O.00O,00O Before 1915 closed
estimates Of a. much as S2,000000, GOO
had been made of contracts placed here
and ~ Canada. Shipments Of supplies
other than foodstufrs and clothing from
the outbreak Of way 10 the end Of Oc-
tober we're put by our government fig
ures az upward Of quarters of p
billion dollars.
Though the Allies organized their
factories and we're able 20 turn our
more munitions at the end Of the year,
men available for production are lin
tied By the immense number devoted
70 war. SO it IL 20 be expected that
we must continue 20 ship abnormal
quantities of goods 20 belligerents and
20 neutral nations. the limit OF lack OF
purchasing power being raised as the
credit arrangements Of war financing
cause temporary imitation.
This great stimulus 20 our business.
that produced an export excess OF more
than billion dollars in the fiscal year
ended June 80 and approaching Sl.o00,
00o.000 in the calendar year, was antici-
psted in finance before general trade
felt its effects. An upturn in securi-
ties in The spring. stimulated by talk
OF great profits from war orders.
brought immense public speculation.
The Stock Exchange, which had started
the year with fixed minlmUms 10 pro-
tect our market from being over
whelmed by foreign liquidation, saw
million share days and prices advanced
"a they had seldom or never before.
Speculative excuses were moderated
by the caution displayed by banking
interests, just recently passed through
the strain Of the summer Of 1914. Am
pie margins required by lending insti-
tutious and most brokerage houses
made trading less dangerous When
the boom IN industrials supposed 10 be
benefiting through war contracts cul-
minated in the fall, the market was
able 10 stand price reductions Of re-
markable extent without serious conse-
Quenccs
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-01-04
Trade Expands SLOW y.

Trade responded to renewal OF cont
dencc and benefits of war orders much
more slowly than finance. The indus
trial fabric is 80 interviewer. however,
that Increasing operations OF plants
devoted to supplying Europe's needs,
together with bountiful crops repeated
for second year. gradually made
themselves felt throughout the nation.
Labor changed from a state OF acute
unemployment TO what IN some place
became scarcity. Gradually wages, IN
which 2 large proportion Of Europe
spending went, became distributed. and
the year ended with general business
described by competent authorities as
equal 10 that Of boom times.
The steel industry. ordinarily consid-
cred q trade barometer because of the
demands which domestic construction