New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-04-17
He Cannot Be Nominated
Without 1t, Belief in
Washington.
CAMPAIGN ENTERS
DIPLOMATIC STAGE
Neither Colonel Nor Former
Enemies Wish Another 1912
Fight Within Party.
frro,, n, Tr1huns BUREAU. ]

Washington. April l6.-Theodore
Roosevelt cannot be nominated without
the support Of the "old guard; his cam
r,irn from now on must he aimed 70
win this, and since ne will not go 20
them" it I, being designed 70 make
them come 70 him.
The Republican pr.-convention cam
psign has already gone FAR enough 70
make this certain On the returns 40
far Justice Hughes Is FAR and away
ahead Of the Colonel, and most Repuo
licsn leaders here say his nomination
is sure. The convention IA only seven
weeks away, and Mr.. Roosevelt has
nothing up his sleeve. Yet many OF
the "insidors" believe he still has an
even chance and some OF tho keenest
observers are convinced he will win
"The old crowd has the votes.
crouch and a great hunger. T. r. has
nothing but his voice and his record
I'm betting on r r." said one Of these
observers.
II IL notable that here IN Washing
ton, where tho surface events OF poll
ties cart up much light draft informa-
ton belief In a Hughes victory is al
most unanimous. In New York. where
popular and business opinion focuses,
there Is an equally strong conviction
Of Colonel Roosevelt's success though
not wholly a joyous conviction
Two Fundamental Factors.
The struggle IL now about 10 enter
its final phasc-one new TO American
politics and totally different from that
Of 19l2-a phase that will be diplo-
macy rather than war. Careful review
Of tho ground, and comparison OF re
ports from all parts OF the country
and of the opinions OF many poll
ticans show the following funda-
mental factors arc pretty we'll agreed
upon:
Neither Roosevelt, nor his for
rer enemies can beat Wilson with
out the others help.
Neither is willing as both were
in 1912 10 force n fight inside the
party and risk a split and de
feat
Roosevelt believes the need FOR real
preparedness and renewed patriotism
justifes postponing the 1912 issues,
but not abandoning them.
He has already forced his Issues on
the party, Root supports them
Hughes is believed 10. Whoever makes
tho race must run or the Roosevelt
platform n the man as not Roosevelt
his slogan will have 20 be "Me. too
The "old guard" with a few excep-
tons, does not feel so strongly as does
the Colonel on either the new issues
or the old. II is willing TO compromise
a little. But the compromise will be
with Roosevelt and not with the Pro
gressivss or the Progressive Republi-
cans. These the "old guard" intends TO
treat politely but firmly.
Guard Will Not Surrender.
Control Of the party is the one thing
which the "old guard" will not sur
render. compromise or risk. II would
rather have another 1912. But the
minor party leaders. the men who want
20 put through state. county. city and
town tickets. demand victory at the
polls. They will not be led nor driven
into another 1913 shambles II they
know IL.
Business. the ally o, the cold guard"
il scared badly. The old tear Of in
ternsl reform has been chased out OF
sight by an awakening 20 the foreign
dangers OF outside aggression OF need
less war II wants a Presiden, who
will defend it against an invasion Of
American territory. the home markets
or its right 20 do business safely
abroad. 1t has tried Wilson, and it
also will insist on Republican victory,
in Wite of any politicians grouehes.
And, finally, when the Republican
convention meets the cold guard" will
have control TO the hsndle-from two
thirds to three-fourths Of the dele
gates; men az solid, conservative,
bridlewiss and non-stampedable as can
be found. The Constructions" labels on
these men mean only that they have
been most carefully hand picked.
The Hughes boom. politically speak
ing, is big, but empty. The politicians
have looked the justice over and de-
eided that he will do-that he will prob
ably have to do. They think he meets
the main specifications, that Roosevelt
will support him, that he can win and
that they can stand him as Presi-
dent. Careful inquiry. however. has 50
far failed 20 reveal one politician who
Is for him personally.
This, then, is Colonel Roosevelt's
problem: To bring decisive part OF
the "old guard or their allies. big or
little, 10 believe either that he IS a
surer winner than Justice Hughes or
that he is as sure and better man 20
have In the White House. And he must
do il outside the convention, without
srousing the passions that caused the
wreck in 1912 and might prevent sue
cess in November.
There are four ways by which his
success might me-the refusal OF
Hughes 10 run, decision among the
business men throughout the country
that he would handle foreign affairs
I'd preparedness better than Hughes,
Concentration on the stump that the
se are with him as % old. or a de-
by the politicians that they
rather have him than Hughes