The Birmingham age-herald., 1916-06-07
PROSPER|TY'S TIDE HAS NOT REACHED ITS CREST AS YET Crops Indicate Still Greater Things for the Com
 ing Year MANY SEE PERIOD
 OF LONG ACTIVITY Conditions Stipulated Year Ago by Dayison for Great Prosperity
 Wave Have All
 Been Met
By HOLLAND


 ago Henry P. Dawson ventured to make prediction about the return of pros- perity, basing his view upon contingent cies which at the time he spoke were l matters of surmise. MT. Davison had just returned from London, where, pre- suma ply, he was in consultation with the government authorities of England re- specting the basis upon which a joint loan made by England and France for a large amount of money could be nego- tiated in the United States.
 MT. Davison said that if there were good crops in 1915 and, furthermore if the organization of the federal reserve commission was satisfactory in the sense that the membership of the commission represented men who were in sympathy with American business life, and, again, if there were an increase in exports from the United States, then he felt that he could safely predict a revival of business prosperity. He would not fix the time. It might be two years before the United States was upon the flood tide of pros- perity. The only danger, and that re- mote one. which occurred to him, was
 
 rency.
 A FORECAST HANDICAPPED
 Almost exactly year from the day when MT. Dawson thus spoke, the fed eral reserve board at Washington re- ported that the high tide of the coun- try's prosperity had been reached. A year and half ago, the country was at the ebb. The change from ebb to flood did not begin until the latter part of January of 1915. It was partly due to the bounteous harvests garn cred in the summer of that year and partly to the magnitude of the demands by Europe upon the United States for commodities of all kinds. It was facilitated by the skill with which the American bankers and business men handled the original problem developed by the war which they were called upon to solve.
 Whether the expression, 'the high tide of the country's prosperity has been reached is accurate is doubtful In fact, the report made by the federal reserve board leads those who have carefully studied it to believe that instead of the high tide having reached it's climax the rise is to be continued for another year at least.
 Furthermore, those who are competent to judge are inclined to think that gen eral prosperity unexampled in the his- tory of the country will be maintained for some years after the close of the Flu ropean war. One of the best features in this report, according to opinion com monly held here, Is the reference to the promise of the harvests The federal re- serve board says that more favorable crop conditions are reported at the be- ginning of the summer than were the re- ports made earlier in the season.
 THE SCARCITY OF LABOR
 There is no dearth of labor in certain fields of activity, although somewhat em- barrassng scarcity is reported by those who manage some vacations. Part of this is artificial or temporary. Wage earners in certain industries, and espe- cially those whose employment is clerical, have been tempted to seek employment in the munition factories, chiefly be- cause the wages are high. This has oc- casioned a scarcity in other activities and there Is some apprehension that in harvest time the farmers may have diff culty in securing harvest hands. Un- doubtedy they will be compelled to pay higher wages than have been the aver age in recent years.
 GEMS TELL THE STORY
 In the panic of 1907 the importers or and dealers in gems made reports which furnished excellent proof of the disas- trous effects of that Vanic, especially upon many who were deemed the posses sors of wealth. Some of the importers ot gems were compelled to resort to highly artificial methods of protecting their busi- ness Some of them intrusted their buSi- ness affairs to trustees. There was pra actical suppression of imports of pre- cious stones of all kinds, and 1t was found impossible to market the jewels which dealers carried in stock. Some found it necessary to hypothecate their stocks of precious stones so that in that way they could struggle along until pet ter times came.
 Now this condition is reversed. Never before have so many gems been imported in five months as has been the case since the beginning of this year. Official state ment fixes the money value of the pre- cious stones which will be imported in 1916 at s50,oooO00, and this figure is $4000.- 900 in excess of the best record ever made of mportations of this kind. Some of the importers represent the desire Of for- eisn dealers to place their jewels in sa fe s well as in an excellent market
 Another prediction of general prosper ity and it's increase is to be found Tn the gradual hardening of rates demanded by the banks for time loans. The increase is not very great, but it does show an enlarged demand for funds. The fact that in negotiating the extension or the credit of GOO made by syndicate of American banks to London banks II was stipulated that there would be an increase of one-half of 1 per cent in the interest charge of itself discloses the hardening tendency in the money mar kets.