The Birmingham age-herald., 1916-05-03
STILL DEPENDS GREATLY ON WHEAT HARVEST Smaller Crop Promised But Prices Will Probably
 Overcome Shortage
AMERICAN WHEAT
 NOW LEADS WORLD
Economists Are Putting Crops First in Making Their Calculations on Future Conditions
 in Trade
By HOLLAND

New York, May 2.-(Special)- the spring of 1915, few weeks after his re- turn from London, Henry P Davison spoke of two factors which were to be determined later in the year which, in his view, would be essential if we were to have restored prosperity, and espe- cially great activity in domestic indus try. At the time Mr Davison spoke, it was impossible to do more than predict that if the harvest, and especially the wheat harvest compared favorably with that of the previous year, and if the newly created industrial commission was composed of men who were in full sym pathy with reasonable business interests of the United States then there would be assurance of a nationwide revival of do- mestic industry and mercantile activity Both of these factors by the early au- tumn of last year were found to be very favorable. The great stimulus to busi- ness became apparent in the later months of the year 1915.
 At the time Mr. Davison spoke, there prevailed unfavorable reports respecting the promise of the winter wheat harvest Dut CnlIidllC llIlu6uCGS were ROOQ ana farmers were very industrious, so that notwithstanding the gloomy prospects of
 midspring which some who called them
 selves expert reported the United States
 garnered one of it's greatest wheat har- vests.
 This year the United States must de-
 pend in considerable measure for the meantenance of it's business and indus trial prosperity upon the harvests But if reports which have come to Washing
 ton and New York have any foundation
 in fact, then we are not likely to harvest
 as great winter wheat crop in 1916 as we did in 1915 or in the previous year. Those who are of expert authority say that it is after all not so much a ques- Ntion of the number of bushels of wheat
 that are garnered as it is the price which that wheat will command in the market that will be influential in maintaining and increasing industry and mercantile interest.
 A QUESTION OF PRICE No one can predict what the average price received by the farmers of wheat this year will be. It may be favorably affected if the crops should be smaller than was the case last year. It may be unfavorably affected should there be placed upon the markets of the world the large accumulations of wheat which
 are now embargoed in Russia, because
 that country finds it impossible to export her wheat.
 That there is reported decrease in the acreage devoted to wheat culture is of itself not very alarming. The farmers have learned part of the lesson which James J. Hill and others began to teach some years ago. They have discovered that it is the number of bushels per acre rather than the number of acres planted to wheat which is the important
 factor in profitable harvest Therefore,
 although the acreage may be decreased,
 it Is not to be presumed that the harvest
 itself will be. Wheat cultivation in the
 United States has improved greatly with
 in the last 10 years. Moreover, if there
 be decreased acreage of wheat the lands
 thus given up so far as the wheat culti
 vation is concerned will be utilized for
 other food products.