The Daily Ardmoreite. [volume] (Ardmore, Okla.) 1893-current, 1916-09-15
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!. WILL THERE BE A COTTON
/. BOOM7
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The outlook in the cotton trade Il
puzzliug good many people just now
There is no doubt that very stronf
bull" feeling exists IN America, ant
that considerable efforts will be mad'
to force up prices -lr raw cotton
partly by minimizing all favorable
crop news and by magnifying the un
favorable circumstances, but perhaps
more effectively by noiding back Q
large part of the new crop when II
begins to come on the market Tho
general idea underlying this bullisl
| feeling in America Is, that as soOr
as the war is over, there will b6
an enormous expansion in the de
mand for cotton goods, and this jdea
seems to be entertained also on oui
side of the Atlantic. No account is
taken, apparently. of the probability
that the world of cotton buyers Will
| with the exception Of the United
States, be very poor, and thal
however much people may want to
buy, they may be prevented by lack
of means. eYt this is a very impor-
| tant factor in the general situation,
and ii Is curious to ind 1t so utterly
| ignored Every economist knows quite
well that although there may be ur-
gent need for certain manufactures,
still, If the means or distribution fail
there may be at the same time
glut of these same goods. In fact, to
say that there is a glut in any mar
ket is practically TO say that the
means of distribution can only take
place when the public is provided
with money to buy.
Another so called "bulP'poin which
one meets continually on this side Is
that Germany is destitute of cotton,
and that after the war she must abb
sorb great quantity. 1t is rather
amusing to find this point urged by
the very people who are clamoring
for the restriction by all manner OF
means, reasonable and unreasonable.
fair or stupid, of the whole of Ger
many's commercial activities. We are
to do our utmost to strangle the trade
of the Central Empires by tariffs, by
hostile discrimination, and by boy
colt, and then We are To look to Ger
many to take enormous masses OF
cotton and other goods in order to
produce a boom in our markets!
at the conclusion of the war the allied
nations should at once set to work
to restore the Central Empires to
their previous condition of prosper
ous trade, then perhaps they might
soon become important factors in the
revival of commerce throughout the
world; but everyone knows perfectly
well that no assistance will be forth
coming for nations which have so
well deserved the execrations of the
whole community, and the resulting
poverty and distress in Germany, Aus
tria, Turkey and the Balkans must
necessarily react, and react sharply
on the trade of the world. This has
to be reckoned with as inevitable,
and il is folly to ignore it, Few peo
pie comprehend what may be called
the indiyisibility of trade; they fail
to understand that commercial pros
perty in one place depends largely
upon the same prosperity in other
places. The trade of the world has
become one organism, and when a
huge limb is Topped off a sensitive
creature we do not expect to find
perfect health restored in the course
Of an hour or So
That the world will require moro
cotton goods after the war than be
fore the war is another highly dis
putable proposition. but it is of little
use to argue upon it, because there
are not sufficient data to go upon.
The point to be borne in mind Is that
even If the goods are wanted, it may
not be possible to buy them. a more
important point for our consideration
is that during the war a great part of
our own trade in cotton goods has
been in allegiance partly by reason OF
high prices. and partly because of
shortage of labor. This means that
commercial connections have in many
cases been broken of, and that other
cotton manufacturing countries, nota-
bly, America and Japan. have formed
fresh connections with many Of our
customers Trade in these cases has
to Dee recovered, and our men of com
mcrce do not need to be told that to
recover lost connections is often
more difficult than To establish
new ones II is perfectly certain
that a portion OF our Indian cotton
trade will be lost TO Japan, and in
other directions we shall also find diff
frvTtf,e in tho WAY NJ bringing about