The Birmingham age-herald., 1916-06-03
'ECONOM|CFUTURE RESTS SQUARE[Y ON FOREIGN TRADE Dr. Pratt's View COincides With That of Other Care
 full Observers HILL ALWAYS FIRM
 BELIEVER IN THIS Great Disappointment When He Was Unable to Compete in the
 East With European
 Nations
RY HOLLAND

meSu1C commerce IO the lHeIHDeFS Ol lue Wholesale Grocers' association at Mem rhis, Tenn, few day ago, he stated that our economic future rests squarely on the success of cur foreign trade. pr. Pratt is recognized as very high au- thority on trade and commerce, and whenever he speaks on the subject of foreign and domestic trade careful heed is paid to what he says. At least that is the case in this city.
 Some years ago James J. Hill. in a,, address evidently prepared with much care, made a statement which does not agree with the one pr. Pratt made at Memphis. While MT. Hill was as en- thusiastic an advocate of expansion of foreign trade as any one, nevertheless he did not believe that our national prosperity is chiefly based upon the success of our foreign trade. He un dertook 1t one time to build up q large foreign trade. He was inspired to do this chiefly by the belief that a tran Pacific trade would furnish large transportation for his Great Northern railroad system. It was this system and it's incidental relation to general prosperity in the northwest which Mr Hill had in view when he initiated a commerce with the far east which he was afterWard obliged to abandon be- cause the interstate commerce com | mission at Washington would not per init him to make or maintain rates so low as to enable the United States to compete with Great Britain and Ger n ba orJxo = NIT. Hlll has frequently said that there may be danger that we are over cultivating our manufacturing indus tries, doing that in the hope of greatly expanding our foreign trade. His req son for his view was based upon his pellef that the greater the increase In our manufacturing industries the | smaller the increase in our agricultu- raj production. Furthermore, manu- ! Iacturlng tends to bring great popu lations into industrial centers. therebv deprlvlng agricultural regions of those : Who should assist in cultivating the ] soll. However great our exports may pc they should not, in MT. Hills view I pc cultivated at the expense of az. riculture: Unless we greatly increase our proouctlons of cereals. and espe-
 
 strated mathematically, he believed. that py the year 1850 our population VIII greatly exceed the capacity Of the American wheat fields to feed it.
 THE BEST BAROMETER Dr. Pratt made another sta+a4 Which it is thought may have been inacs curate'y or incompletely reported. He sala that the best proof of domestic pros perlty IS found in railway earnings, nie ron production, building operations and bank clearings. Where it is asked is tnere any recognition in this statement or the relation which the crops bear to uomestic prosperity? If any of the lead ing men of finance is asked what is inc fundamental or true basis of America 7, prosperity, the answer invariably is. The crops" S' A year ago, when one of the interna tlonal financiers who have been asso. clated with the financing of foreign loans In the United States was speaking or the prospect of business improvement and domestic prosperity, he said. "First of all that depends upon the volume and the quality of the crops'' Upon excel lent harvests depend more than upon any other influence the maintenance and increase of American domestic prosper ity.
 KEEPING STEP
 At this time there is an unpa ralleled relation between domestic industry and foreign trade. The two are keeping step The United States has had considerable foreign trade in the past without corre- spending domestic activity It has on the other hand, had excellent domestic business without great deal of foreign trade. Now domestic industry and for eign trade can we'll be compared. One of the recent reports from the steel in- dustry is that there is large increa SC in it's export trade aside from that which reflects orders from belligerent nations At the same time there is correspondingly large increase in the do- mestic trade. \
 The time is not many years distant when such a traffic as is occasioned bv the shipment of early vegetables and fruits from the south to northern mar kets was an inconsiderable item. This year railroad companies are able to re- port that they hauled nearly 1s.0oo cars of early vegetables and fruits from the south to the northern markets It is very profitable railroad business. for the rates are high, since the commodities have to be moved very rapidly. One of the estimates is that the railroads will receive in the aggregate $500o.0Oo for this business.
 
 Fairfax Harrison is net only greatly occupied with the actual operation and direction of the Southern Railroad com many. of which he is president. but finds time for industrial incidental study and observation. This has made it possible for him to say that although the wheat harvest of this year is likely to be 15o- o0nnNn bushels less than the crop gar nered last year, nevertheless if in other parts of the country the increase were s great as it is certain to be in certain parts. of the south then. instead If a fall ing off in the number of hnshelsA the wheat harvest for 1916 would be likely to exceed that of 1915.
 It was the corn harvest of the south and some parts of the middle west which in considerable measure made good the defciencv in the corn harvests of the northwest last year. Great wheat bar- vests in the south are new agricu'- turaI development
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