New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-08-11

know whether il is or not before snow
flies, and if it is then the war is merely a
problem in attrition, matter of subtrac-
ton. II is possible, however, that having
underrated or overrated Germany by spells
since the very outset of the war her enc
mics and all neutral observers may he
again falling into error.
And if this be the case the next two
months will reveal the fact, for Germany
will not, unless she is compelled to do it,,
GO into another winter of war with moth
ing but a series of partial reverses and uni
form retirements behind her. If the Allies
are able to continue to make large or small
gains until snow flies, then they will all be
perfectly willing to 90 on. Unless the
picture which the last two months has
fixed in their minds is dissipated, the whole
populations of the nations allied against
Germany will believe that the end IS IN
sight. that victory is assured and that only
patience is necessary.
Short of a decision that is real and
unuuestioned victory, the one chance OF
peace this winter has hitherto depended
on the success of the Germans in preserving
their familiar legend that they had won
the war only blindness and obstinacy on
the part of their foes preventing the coming
of peace. But already the Allied victories
have shattered this conception. London,
Paris. Rome, Petrograd are celebrating
victories of unequal value and none OF
them conclusive, but all pointing in one
direction. In a word, Germany has al
ready been sufficiently defeated In the
opening two months of the Allied campaign
to convince her foes that her eventual de-
feat is certain, if not soon to be achieved
Germany has got to destroy this state Of
mind; she is fighting against superior
numbers, wealth, ultimate resources. She
has failed to eliminate any one of her sew
eral foes before they were able to unite in
a coordinated, synchronized, common at
tack. Manifestly her best chances are lost;
all her chances of winning the war as she
hoped to win it when her armies entered
Belgium have vanished. 1t is a draw that
the Germans are now insisting upon, a
draw in which there will be profit for Ger
many, but modest profit. And the basis
of her claim for draw is the assertion
that her foes cannot conquer her or turn
her out of what she has conquered.
Her people believe this, her soldiers be-
lieve this and the whole mass of German
population believe this; but their faith can
not endure a steady attrition with no coun-
gain. Between slow defeat and
quick defeat there is a wide distance, but II
Germany cannot win anywhere and con-
tinues to lose slowly, her own people will
not mistake the fact. No one dies IN the
last ditch and no nation holds out long
after the unmistakable direction of the tide
is disclosed, save in the presence Of sure
destruction Of its independence and essen
tial integrity
Wherefore it is perfectly plain that Ger
many has now to take the field in another
counter-thrust or else concede that she has
lost the war, lost even the hope of draw
to which she clings, the draw that she de-
scribes as a victorious peace" Conceiv-
ably this effort will take the form of drive
through Russia toward Petrograd or Mos
COW. Conceivably it will be counter
thrust through Bukovina or from the Bug
at Brussiloff. There are signs that some
movement has been prepared; there have
been suggestions for several weeks that
there is a German movement on foot, and
the selection of Hindenburg to take over
most of the Eastern front is one of them.
The thing that must be accepted as the best
argument for believing that a new German
effort is at hand is the fact that long
continued absence of such movement will
demonstrate that Germany is really at the
limit of her power and that the end has
begun. If Germany fails to make such
move this summer, if she continues to lose
as she has been losing, if there is nothing
to counterbalance what she has lost before
the weather ends the campaign of 1916,
then the Allied nations will look forward
to next year with complete confidence; they
will not listen to any suggestion Of peace
on terms that Germany's rulers would now
or then think of accepting, and Germany
will have to face the prospect of another
year of war in which her foes will have
far greater advantages in munitionment
and heavy artillery than they now have.
After more than two years Of war Ger
many's position is worse than at any time