New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1916-10-07
Friday, October 6, 1916.

To quarrel with the improbable
has become a vanity. The unexpect-
ed comes naturally and gently to
pass in its own way. Stocks that
have gone up extravagantly are still
selling for less than nothing. We
import gold from Great Britain IN
ships and export bank credit to Lon
con by cable at the same time, the
gold and credit crossing. Wall Street
Is naive and credulous. The public IS
sophisticated. Therefore, one must
restrain the impulse TO take things
for what they seem. The Equitable
Building may be a myth and the
Stock Exchange a butternut tree.
When the head Of great institu-
ton, who must be referred to as ian
important financial interest" calls
in the financial news reporters by
telephone and communicates TO them
international political information Of
the very highest Importance, namely
that the American Ambassador TO
Berlin, now on the sea, Is positively
the bearer Of peace proposals from
Germany, one should distrust ap-
pearances and first differences. Sus-
picion, irony and unbelief have cost
Wall Street a great deal Of money.
It did not begin to believe in miracles
until the public had nearly all the
stocks. In the same way it has never
believed that information Of great
interest to the holders Of stocks was
impaired from high places for al
truistic reasons. That is prejudice
IL NAV overcome in time, with lit
tie more inverted experience. inns
would all be much more interesting
however, if the information itself
had been news. The manner OF put
ting it out was unique, and that was
all. That Mr.. Gerard might be COM
ir,g home on a peace errand was
printed in all the papers of the world
some days ago.
Peace is like the end Of the world.
II will come. The only uncertainty
;s as To the time. The true rumor
Of its coming will sound in no way
different from the many raise
rumors that were heard before, so
that in all probability the thing
when it happens will fall as ire
mendous surprise. Nobody will have
believed it to be imminent, least OF
all those who had been gambling on
the further life of the war.
Japan takes pride in the fact that
during the first half Of 1916 she sold
TO China more goods than China sold
20 her, so that there remained Tor
Japan what she has learned from the
Western world to call Favorable
balance Of trade" 1t would seem
that in international trade the ideal
is TO sell your customer all ne can
be persuaded to buy, whether ne can
afford it or not. The economic effect
upon the importing nation is seldom
if ever considered. China is the per-
feet example. The world has been
continually engaged in selling her
more than she could afford to buy,
hence her chronic Indebtedness. In
ten years, 1901 to 1912, inclusive
China's imports were 9,4O2 million
dollars worth. Her exports in the
same years were Of the aggregate
value of only 1856 million dollars.
She bought, therefore, l,O46 million
dollars worth Of goods more than
she sold, and that represents her
"unfavorable balance of trade" The
problem now is TO find in China the
security on which 70 lend her the
money with which to go on buying
more goods than she sells, running
further into debt. The Western
trader, overselling his China Gus
toner. has impoverished that Gus
toner. Here Is an evil which will
have to be dealt with before foreign
trade can ever be elevated TO plane
of scientific, even moral, merchandis-
ing. Every merchant in his own
land knows the consequences Of over
selling. 1t spoils his market. He
has not begun to see it clearly in the
case of the foreign customer.
Economic writing Of the old style
Is rich in illusions TO the hostility,
of labor toward every improvement
in the means Of production. 1t is
proved TO the point Of having become
an assumption that every labor saw
ing device now in existence has been
introduced over the more or less bit
ter opposition of labor. II is proved,
moreover, that in the outcome labor
has been benefited In spite Of its stu
pidity. It's arms and legs and gen
eral productive power have beea
multiplied by machinery several
kundredfold. The aggregate Of pro
duction has been increased faster