The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1916-05-15
FINANCIAL REVIEW
OF THE PAST WEEK
Uncertainties Temper . Stu
alton Conducting Other.
wise to Expansion.
POLICIES ARE PRUDENT

Judein from the indications OF the
stock market something more than quail
fed assurance against an immediate
breach Of diplomatic relations with Ger
many Is needed to remove restraints on
forward activities in the financial COM
munity. There are signs also that busi-
ness endeavor IL encountering limita-
lions imposed by the same complication
of uncertainties to which Wall Street has
been responding. At the beginning OF
last week there was general acceptance
Of the view that for the time being the
danger Of a break Wit Germany had
been at least lessened. but tho subse-
Quent course OF financial n business
comment suggested that the various rid
dies Of the future which only events can
answer were being reflected in . wider
adoption of business caution.
II the disposition to wait on events
should become more marked II is only
because plenty Of reasons for conserva-
tism and prudence are Afforded by de-
yelopments which have already taken
place or are more than contingent proba-
bilities OF the near future. II is to be
observed, however. that the attitude with
which "A doubtful and uncertain pros
| pect is faced IL one OF confident rather
than apprehensive conservatism. Ample
warrant has been furnished for the wide
spread conviction that the country's eco
monte resources are an abundant guar
antee of ability to cope adequately with
any stress Of circumstances.
Most of our pressing problems are
shaped by the difficulties of foreign af-
fairs, which seem to rather
than diminish. So far as the European
war is concerned, its influence now and
hereafter depends on our ability 10 main
tain "a status OF neutrality toward all the
belligt rents. one of the troublesome
questions which engage the thoughtful
is whether it Is going to be possible for
the country to remain neutral should the
European conflict enter n still more des-
perate phase. The progress OF the war
will he watched with more acute interest
than ever because of the progressive
hazards which 1, will offer for neutrals.
and especially because Of the coincidence
of domestic political unsettlement and
agitation through which we must pass
In the next few months.
shows Perplexing Uncertainties.
Talk Of the chances for early peace
abroad has been rather curiously contra
dictory OF the foregoing considerations,
but the fact that the bearings OF more
desperate war have to be examined even
! while the outlook for peace is being dis
cussed goes to show how perplexing are
the uncertainties of the immediate finan-
cial and business reckoning, Men or
| affairs hardly know how much impor-
lance TO attach To peace overtures as
long as they appear to he solely OF Teu-
| tonic Inspiration. hut even If an end Of
fighting III Europe Is not imminent in
creasing notice is being taken of the
necessity OF regarding the Intimacy OF
peace abroad and its attendant conse-
quences on financial and commercial en-
terpr!se. There can hardly be doubt
| that during the further expansion of
general business this veal the reac-
tiouary processes which have charac-
terized the stock market have shown
some discounting OF the termination Of
the European struggle.
II may be remarked also that financial
opinion. although far from unanimous.
is leaning toward tho theory that the war
Is not likely TO go IN through another
| winter: that II conclusions are not
reached this year in the fighting on land
and sea II will be incumbent on such
"statesmanship as mankind car produce
- contrive peace treaties by diplomatic
Nv ii'NsI'NhiNC VI Nie oituiky
of this opinion the end OF the war. when
ever 1t comes, is weighing more heavily
as a factor In banking and business cal
culations, and II is To be assumed that
II W.. influence enterprise in all the
fields OF profitable pursuit.
Anticipation is not So likely 20 chow
Itself in attempts to discount the work
ings Of the forces which the restoration
OF peace will have set free AS IN a grad
ual disco urting of the shift from waf
To- peace conditions. The period OF tran
sltion viii involve extensive readjust-
ments Of prices in many markets and q
large r~eu,igumrnt OF demand and supply
and the transition period itself has to be
dealt with before the influence Of peace
conditions can be met in any expectan,
fashion. Al the same time IL IL worth
noting that the uppermost inquiry to-
day among men who take a long look
ahead relates tn the settled economic
changes which the return OF peace in
Europe will effect.