Honolulu star-bulletin. [volume] (Honolulu [Oahu, Hawaii]) 1912-2010, 1916-11-25
Crop Increases Are Neutralized
and Demand Continues Its
Steady Increase
{ speciaI Star Rnlletin Correspona.leel

tCGar FactS ABOUT sugar uealS VIII
the world sugar crop and says:
with the acreage planted and con
diticn Of the growing crops now fair
ly well known, together with the pro
duction recorded from the harvesting
of those crops now being gathered
data becomes available which make:
possible preliminary estimate of the
worlds sugar supply for 1917 from the
principal sources of production, ant
comparison between this amount anC
the supply which has been drawn OF
during the present year.
Supplies Near Exhautsoin
in the issue of September 16. Fact:
About Sugar published a complete re
sumo OF the worlds supply and de
mand for 1916, based on the --latest
figures then obtainable This tabula
ton showed an almost exact balance
between the available supplies of the
world, which were then placed at
20,713,090 ordinary tons, and the esti
mated consumption for the year
which was placed at 20,722,990 tons
This comparison included surplus
stocks brought over from previous
production, as well as the sugar pro
duced and available for market dur
ing 1915. The logical deduction to
be drawn from this survey was that
by the end of the current year all
available supplies will be practically
exhausted, including the surplus
stocks. This contention as to sur:
nj, etc 70 hn xx;sa ~.
ranted by the recent reports from
Europe of existing acute shortages and
sugar famines in many countries, for
any large margin of surplus held as
unsold sugar or invisible stocks
would under the normal workings OF
the worlds sugar trade be drawn on
to relieve existing conditions.
Russia Holds Reserve
'In forecasting, therefore, the fu-
ture trend of the worlds market for
1917, based upon statistical calcula-
tions, the apparent facts at hand, add
ed to the assumed indications, point
to the non-existence of either any con-
siderable volume of surplus stocks or
large amount of invisible stocks, save
the inviolate reserve of Russia, to be
carried over from the current year
to next year Such invisible stocks as
were existent in 1916 have undoubtedly
been drawn on heavily throughout the
present year to relieve shortages and
balance consumption, and those that
may be carried over will be low and
have little influence on the markets
trend in 1917.
Conditions then which are next to
be considered and are of vital import
ance center on the estimates that will
mirror the volume of production avail
able during the coming year. embrac-
ing the total crops in sugar produc-
ing countries. According to present
estimates, the sugar production of the
world for 1917 will show statistically
a considerable excess over production
in 1916. The increase estimated to
date amounts possibly to as much as
100000 ordinary tens.
Crop Increases Neutralized
In estimating the total supplies in
the worlds markets, however, for next
year, 1t would be a mistake to adopt
this figure as indicating correspond
ing increase above the worlds re-
quirements, as many factors intervene,
which when analysed clearly show
this increase is neutralized by other
existing influences, and that it would
be an error to add this crop increase
to the worlds available supply with
out such revision.
Taken in connection with the es-
innate published with this survey and
the estimate Of the worlds supply and
demand published in the September
l6 issue, a careful analysis of both,
together with the logical comparisons
adduced from the two, reveals that the
total crop Increase predicted does not
In the final calculation show a cor
increase over the worlds
in 1916. This presents
4 very different outlook for the sugar
trade than would be the case if the
market for the world was likely 10 be
called upon to absorb an increase of
about million tons during the COM
ng year over what was consumed this
year.
In the previous estimate mention
I'd, the total available supplies for
1916 of 20.713,090 tons included L.
100000 tons of surplus stocks or prac-
ically all that were in sight, except
he inviolate reserve of Russia. re-
yardless of whether it could be moved
Or not to countries that were classed
Is being short of sugar, and had to
De theoretically drawn on to balance
he supply and demand acsount.
Year to Absorb Surplus
This surplus was divided up as
ollows: Java. 100000 tons; Austria
hungary, 100000 tons; Germany,
100000 tons. and miscellaneous coun-
ries, 100000 tons. Based on general
Y accredited reports. this surplus will
re absorbed during the year. IS was
theoretically assumed in the estimate.
Germany Is reported to have consumed
Turing the wear practically all surplus
sugars on hand January l, 1916. The
amn undoubtedly holds true of Aus |
ria-Hungary and If any surplus does
lYief fhQra IL CON only no nfili1o6 dIr.