The Richmond Virginian. (Richmond, Va.) 1910-1920, 1916-11-26
ICIulIe AHEAD BUT
1 war OF PATIENCE
lguaent Condition Of Stalematc VIII
Have Been Overcome
Year Hence,
ALLIES QUIETLY CONFIDENT
Nothing Fighting For the Fun of It,
But Because They Believe Uia-
1Ase Victory Is Certain to Come
O6enrtvo Continues Steadily.
RxC E RERTE,LLI.

0RO8CfSy.
20 her full strength in men and guns
and shells and all the appearance OF
war, thus enabling France to muster
Aar strength along a shorter line.
II the aliies' confidence is achieving
. decision next year should prove I'M
1psttnsd, however, they would not have
played their last card. The blockade
viii remain a supreme argument for
bringing Germany to terms, and 1t is
yust because OF It's bearing on the
blockade that Germany attaches I'm
mediate and overw helnling importance
20 the threatened loss Of the Balkans
and 10 doing her utmost TO avert It.
Defeat there would enormously weak
NJ her bargaining power for peace.
The situation has been laid before
me in the following manner by "a
Freshman closely In touch with all
the nerve-centers OF the war;
Put the war In its best aspect for
Germany at this time next year. Give
her the open road to the near East
Conceds that she will be firmly resist
ing our onslaught on the main fronts
what will be her prospects?
A War of Patience.
'Eothing ahead but q war OF pa
ttoncA, with the scales heavily weight
q against her because Of the block
aAA. Nor would big business interests
tolerate such a situation. and there
would be an irresistible movement
against allowing the military party to
attempt to resist the process of mill
ttAry and economic exhaustion,
AT that moment-which will be
this time next year at the latest--Ger-
many, even In these relatively favor
able circumstances would be ready for
q peace Involving her In territorial
sacrifices"
It II not the French or British view
that the above described condition OF
UtAlsmAts will prevail next November;
merely mention it to show how Euro
peAns with inside knowledge argue
that peace must come within q year,
whatever happens on the battlefield,
Neither the French. British nor
italian governments are continuing the
war Just because they like it, but be
cause they are convinced they can de
feat Germany and Austria on the bat
tleneld. They will know long before
4 the public does whether their biggest
possible stroke has produced the ex-
pected result. or left them face to~face
with a long war of exhaustion such as
they would be as anxious as Germany
TO avoid.
Offensive slow But Continuous.
However. the latter Alternative Is not
In the least expected by the prominent
Erenchmen, Britishers and Italians
- with whom ! have lately discussed the.
wars prospects. When the Somme
battle began last July. the French and
British STATS did their utmost TO inn
prsas upon the public that no speedy
rupture of the German lines must be
expected. From the first II was made
clear that the offensive would be slow
but continuous, always yielding results
which must not be judged merely from
khA ~ hut xxyh ich NJ
consiA principally In the infection OF
the irreparable loss on the Germans
reserves. There will therefore be no
surprise or disappointment II next
January the German lines in France
remain more or less where 1t has been
for more than two years. There will
nevertheless take place many strategic
changes. Hindenburg. 1t is predicted
will. under increasing pressure be
forced to withdraw entirely from
France.
Tho Anxlo-French somne offensive
(perhaps punctuated now and then by
other short. sharp blows at the other
points of the western line OF which
nothing can now be said), will CON
tnue throughout the winter, pinniug
TO Pfcardy as many German reserve
dfvtsions As possible and seeking to de
priv Htndenburg OF the initiative for
an offensive of any other front.
Jonre does not pretend that he can
use his troops and guns regardless OF
the weather and it stands to reason
that with shorter days and with I'M
certain dry spells. TO say nothing Of
the chief enemy-mud--big combined
operations by the allied armies will be
few and far between during the win
ter.
But there will be no cessation OF
hghtinx. Only 1t is likely to take the
mr. ~ sod svn >
area4. and in general. a policy will
b adopted designed to maintain the
mastery of the allied offensive over
the German defensive.
Object of Campaign.
The objects OF the great Sornme of
fensive are two-fold:
/. To smash the Kaiser's reserves
on q battlefield chosen by the allies
and
2. To roll back the whole German
line from France.
The progress which Joffre Is max
ing In achieving the former object will
not be apparent to the public as long
~ the Germans continue to repair the
successive breaches made in their
lines, as they have done this summer
and autumn. In this respect the
Somme offensive Is o continuation Of
the classic policy of attrition on a
OsOSNS ~>"'S' o'u A. has always Deeu
recognised by the French staff, that
while such q policy shows little re-
salts to the public day by day, ii will
suddenly and sensationally be justified
when the German defensive completely
crumbIes.
The second object that of forcing
back the German line In grand style,
~ OF course. largely contingent upon
and VIII be the first consequence OF
the success OF the attr!tion policy
The allies are heading for St. Quen-
tin and Cambrai, and even should
Germany continue to be able TO send
enough men to the west 10 man eff
eaanoy the whole line from the sea
to Switzerland. she will be forced to
. big retreat from the huge Noyon
saiSsnI once allied arms seriously
monaco these two towns.
In well posted quarters I have not