The Birmingham age-herald., 1916-01-14
Three Conditions to Pros perity Named by Dawson
 Have Now Been Met
IMPORTS CAUSING
 MUCH DISCUSSION
Some Economists Think It Bad Busl- ness to Have Export Figures so Far in Excess of
 Our Imports
By HOLLAND

New York, January 13.-(SpecialD Henry P. Davison of J. P. Morgan & Co.,, was quoted by some of the friends with whom he talked informally soon after his return in the spring from his second visit within six months to London as saying that from his point of view there re- mained three factors to be established be- fore we can say that we have entered upon period of great and probably long continued prosperity. The first of these factors was the evidence that recovery was being rapidly made from the depression which existed in the steel industry in the fall of 1914. Then the United States Steel corporation was operating only about one-thrd of it's capacity. Should there come, Mr. Davison thought, in the late spring and summer evidence that the steel industry was reviving, then one or these important factors would be satisfactorily demonstrated as serving the purpose That factor is now well established.
 The second factor was the quantity and quality of the crops Should the harvest approximate the record made in 1914 and certainly if the aggregate harvest were Ill excess of that garnered in 1914, the second of these important factors would nave been well established. Now, althoush there is some disagreement about the ac- tual figures that tell in bushels or Tn quantities the amount of the harvest, nevertheless there is no doubt that 1t IS fully equal to that of 1914, and' further- more, wheat has been harvested III greater amounts than in any other year.
 The third factor would be based, in the view of MT. Davison, upon the personality and the policy of the federal trade com mission. If the personnel or that pody should be representative of the great pody of honorable business men in the United States and should prove to be in sym pathy with constructive business methods not in any way influenced by political ln- fuences of partisan character, then the three important influences which would stimulate a healthful and very large re- vival of American business activitles would have been established.
 THE ADMINISTRATION
 How accurate Mr. Davison's forecast was is disclosed by the views set forth few days ago by Attorney General Greg ory. in which he expounded what he re- garded to be the true relation of the req eral trade commission to the department of justice and, in fact, to the puslness welfare of the United States. That he should have been asked the question which brought forth this reply by some of the representatives of large pusiness activities in the United States is spoken or as making it clear that MT. Davisons view of the importance Of the personnel and policy of the fedora. trade commas sion if we are to have the prosperity we should have was accurate. Apparently the reply made by the Attorney General to the representative business men re- spectine the relation of the federal trade commission to the department of justice and. in fact to all business interests, IS regarded as in line with what MT. Davison said is essential if our business activities arc to be restored and in peace
 THE SUBJECT OF IMPORTS
 pr Pratt, who is in official relation under the administration at Washington to the statistics which tell of our inter- national trade and of other conditions, is reported to have intimated few days ago that possibly danger turks in the eN- cess of exports over imports an excess which aggregates hundreds of millions or dollars. He also furnished some statls- tical information which made it clear Tn his view how almost dangerously our im- ports have fallen below our exports Many addresses have been delivered and communications have been made which have called attention to the sound law or international barter or trade which re- uuires that purchases of the commodl- ties of another country than our own ought to be substantially balanced or paid for by purchases by these countries or the commodities of the United states.
 WHAT IS OVERLOOKED
 Some of the international financiers say that in these discussions or monitions one or two points are overlooked. In the first place. we are not importing from Great Britain, France or Germany TOT the simple reason that those nations are