New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1915-01-02

cause a drastic break in prices. IL Is
only fair to state. however. that the
final estimate from Washington fully
met the expectations Of the trade.
War Interrupts Demand.
The demand for cotton WAS psrslyzed
by the outbreak OF the European war
In normal times Germany uses sp-
proximately two million bales OF Amer
lean cotton, while the demand from
Austria is placed AZ only little Tess
than eight hundred thousand oaies.
The Generalization throughout oVheI
textile centres, such as Belgium ana
Nortbern France, curtailed demand, and
the trade depression even eNtendeu W
the cotton mills Of Great Britain.
The war had not been In opera
ton for more than two months before
the cotton trade came 10 the inevitable
conclusion that exports OF FIVE mlllioh
bales would be close 10 the MAXIM uh'
although the season previous mad re-
corded exports of s.ss3,0OO bales
Al the same time il was felt tnat
American mills would profit largely
by the depression in Europe and car
culations we're made on the basis OF a
consumption in the United states ana anu
Canada of somewhere around f,OOO,OVo
bales. These figures failed 70 take INTO
consideration the decreased purchasing
power which soon became manifest not
only in this country, but in other
neutral nations. The reports from the
Census Bureau on supply and dlstrlou-
ton soon led TO the conclusion that
consumption in this country might not
exceed 5500,000 bales, which would be
apbroximatelv 100000 bales less than
the year previous.
In the last two or three weeks, how
ever. a more hopeful feeling has pre-
vailed. Exports to Europe are showing
4 decided Increase. Cotton is not con-
traband of war and is now being
shipped regularly to Germany, al
though the difficulties attending these
operations are enormous. Italy, Spain,
Sweden and Holland will import more
cotton than they did last year. and
now that Japan has arranged its II
nances in satisfactory shape, so far
as commercial transactions are con-
cerned, the imports TO that country are
likely to pick up considerably.
Need of Reducing Acreage.
The outlook for the new season de-
ponds almost entirely upon the extent
TO which the South cuts its acreage.
The officials Of the Department Of
Agriculture take the view that re-
duction Of 40 TO 80 per cent will be
necessary TO restore cotton prices to
a level which will show a profit for
the grower and maintain them there.
II will be difficult 10 bring this about,
owing to the fact that the South has
always looked upon cotton as its
money crop" Among the poor classes
of planters the ability TO jingle a
pocket full of silver dollars is more
desired than an abundance of corn in
the crib and "smoke house" well
filed with hams and bacon. The
government, however, is making q
strenuous effort to spread the diver
sification idea, and, If it succeeds, IL
will not be impossible to bring about
a big reduction in acreage.
On the basis of the consumption OF
American cotton this season, amount
ing to 100000 bales, the surplus will
be about 100000 bales or more. This
assumes, Of course, that all the cotton
grown during the last season will be
picked, an assumption which may not
be altogether reliable.
At any rate the efforts which have
been made TO finance the crop are
working out satisfactorily, although
the original plans proposed both by
patriotic members Of Congress and
banking philanthropists are not meet
ing with the success which their pro-
ponents had expected.
Some far sighted students of South
ern conditions believe that the collapse
in cotton prices this season may prove
of ultimate benefit to the South in the
way of diverting farmers from the one
crop idea which has been the bane Of
Southern agriculture.
The lowest prices Of the season IN
the South were reached along in Oc-
tober when cotton went to about 5s4 C
per pound in the interior. The cotton
exchanges were closed at that time, but
since they reopened the lowest price
has been about SIC on the basis of
middling and present prices are around
7c at the farm for middling cotton.
These quotations, however, are not
likely to remain so low if there are
any signs Of radical curtailment OF
acreage.