New Britain herald., 1915-08-14
BUSINESS SKIES
y|SIBLY BRIGHTER
Prospect Of Bumper Harvest and
Boom in Steel Industry Cause
~ Especial to the Herald.)

| fall season promises to be a Satisfac-
| tory one for the United States, which
| is beneftting by it's own good fortunes
plus the misfortunes or others. The
strongest and most pleasing basis Of
confidence is the enormous harvest
which we are on the Threshold of
garnering. The latest Government
report indicates a crop of wheat of
66,OOO,OOO bushels, or 100000
bushels more than last years record
crop. Corn promises a crop of 2,91S,
OOO, 900 bushels, or 207, 100000 bushels
less than the record crop Of 1912. But
this difference may be materially re-
duced by favorable weather. Oats
promise 1,4O2,000,000 bushels or about
100000 bushels below the bumper
crop Of 1912. For hay, the outlook is
100000 tons, or two and half
million tons greater than the record
yield of 1912. Nearly all our crops
will be larger than last year., the i'm
portant exception being cotton. For
our grain crops profitable prices are
assured because of the certainty of
large domestic and foreign demand.
Prices may not rule as high as last
year when the war seriously inter-
fered with supplies; and the fall of
Constantinople, when it happens will
have to be taken into consideration
because Russian supplies, which have
been accommodating in the Black sea,
will be suddenly released. The only
important drawback in the crop sit
uation is cotton, the yield of which
will be considerably reduced by the
smaller acreage and 1essened use OF
fertilizers The South is apparently
somewhat disturbed over derange-
ment caused by the war, yet less so
than newspaper accounts suggest.
The possibility of Great Britain de-
claring cotton .contraband, naturally
confuses the situation and the
problem OF financing this years crop,
which is complicated by the large
carry over from last season, demands
an early solution. Fortunately, hte
crop was raised at low cost and the
South is profiting by steady diver
sification of industry,
Boom in Steel.
The next source of satisfaction in
business circles is the steady widening
of activity in the great steel industry.
While much of this is due to war con-
tracts, many of which promise to be
exceedingly profitable, the latter do
not now from so large a share of the
total orders as sometimes supposed
There has been steady and improv-
ms nome demand at rising prices for
nearly all descriptions of fabricated
steel, especially for constructive plr-
poses, and the railroads have not yet
begun to place orders with their GUS
tomary freedom. When they do this,
as in all probability they soon must,
the steel industry will become even
more active and the flood tide of
prosperity in this great industry will
be at it's heighth. Should the war
come to an unexpectedly early termin-
alton, munition contracts will, of
course, be stopped, but the devasted
regions of Europe VIII need large
quantities of steel for reconstruction
of all kinds This demand will be
urgent and cannot be Immediately
satisfied by either Gremany, France or
Great Britain. Inevitably the United
States will get a large share of these
foreign ORDERS at least for some
months after the war, and this, to-
gether with improvement at home, in
sures a period OF prosperity for the
steel trade for Il long period ahead.
Gold Flowing Westward.
Attention to the foreign exchange
situation was again drawn by the
rather spectacular importation of gold
and securities from London, brought |
on for relief at this point. Exchange
promises to be a problem of first i'm |
portance for several months to come, !
unless the British government es- !
tablishes large credits on this side, |
which so far as known has not as yet |
been done, or succeeds in sending |
larger amounts of securities or mer-
chandise in settlement. very soon
the outward movement of grain and |
war munitions will begin upon !
much more active scale, and unless
imports increase Or something else
is done to relieve the situation, fresh
crisis in the foreign exchange mar
ket may shortly develop. Indications
point to a further importation of gold,
some estimates being as high as $780,
100000. also a renewed selling of |
American stocks unless some expedi-
ent is adopted to tide over the crisis.
Confidence Increasing.
General business shows some i'm
Western merchants are
exceedingly hopeful as usual at this
season because of the crops; while
Ea stern merchants have been al
most equally encouraged ny
that fact. coupled with the growing
3 ctivitv in the steel industry. The pur-
chasing abilities of the American far
mer and American steel workers are