The Birmingham age-herald., 1915-08-03
Complete Reversal of Pre- dictiOns Made Before Out
 break of the War
WAR DEMANDS ARE
 GIVEN DUE CREDIT
Exports of Agricultural as We'll as Manufactured Products Help to Swell the Great Trade
 Balance
By HOLLAND

New York August 2.-(SpeciaL)-Three years ago 1t was possible to report that we were so rapidly gaining in our in- ternatlonal trade that we were substantial ly matching Germany in that respect and were approaching the very figures which recorded the international trade of Great Britain. Some of the experts then made calculations as to the time when we should equal Great Britain in the magnitude of our international trade outgoing and in coming. These experts thought that If we increased it as we had been doing for some years our international trade, out going and incoming. would be within five years somewhat in excess of $5,0o0, 900, 900 and substantially equal to the trade of Great Britain.
 These gains. the experts pointed out, were easily traceable to increase in our exports of manufactured commodities. They told the story of the export trade which had been built up by some of the worlds greatest salesmen, of whom James A. Farrell, now president of the United States Steel corporation, is often spoken of as type. These exports of manufac- tured commodities in great amounts were
 
 after some of the great business com biBations had been made. The confessed purpose or one of the organization of these great combinations was the cap ture Of some part of the foreign markets For it became evident that if American manufacturers were confined in tn cir busi- ness to small and independent units we could not hope to command very much 1creign trade in manufactured comin.dl- ties.
 Curousy enough, about the time our exports or manufactured commodities be- gan to increase considerable falling off IF our exports of agricultural commoji- ties was also noticed At oue .ima it seetned likely that our exports Of meat foods principally beef, would be practical ly ended. We did, in fact, begin to im- port beef and sheep carcases from South America. When MT. Red1eld became Sec rotary of Commerce. in the cabinet of President Wilson, one of the first things nouce1 by him and referred to pubic ly by him was the increase in our px- ports of IT pufactured articles. He ven turc! to predict that in the mid years of President Wilson's administr ition ,he money Nelle Of these exports .yould be col siderably ia excess of $1, 1,000, ,0a9. .G00.
 The fiscal year of 1915 has made an un- expected rcttid. For it has shown that We have substantially maintained our il terfatlonal tIaSe so far as the money Value Of fl is concerned. But the details of t,iis trade are entirely different from those which s year ago or at the be- gunins of the fiscal year of l51a were looked for All the indications pointed te an enormous increase of imports. This, 1t was presumed, would be duo to enact ment Of tho lew tariff law, which great ly reduced tariff rates upon a :ar;ge num- Der of commodities. The manager of the United States Steel corporation looked ahead with much apprehension. believing howeN CT, that if the independent steel companies could survive the heavy import which began to follow the enactment of the new tariff law then the United States Steel corporation could also do that. Yet there was a good deal of alarm over the tendency to buy steel rails, for instance from Canada
 If this tendency, first noticed after the new tariff law was in effect, was main tained and increased then there was doubt about the magnitude of our international trade in the fiscal year of 1915, but It was also realized that it wTuld be a very one-sided trade. We should probably greatly exceed the record made in any previous year for imports, but we were likely to lose heavily upon our exports The grand total might be equal to the record made two three years earlier but it would he a total which in all probability would show a heavy adverse international trade balance.
 Now, Secretary Redheld of the depart