Evening star., 1915-09-12
BY FRANK n. sIMoNDs.

(This is the fourth article in the
Simonds Series.)
The mention of terms of peace, a
few days ago, the first specific ref
erence to territorial arrangements
supplies an appropriate occasion fol-
recapitulating the interesting details in
the new map of Europe, so often dis
cussed in the past year. But it would
be more accurate to refer to the new
maps of Europe, for there are at least
two groups of rival map makers, the
Teutonic and the anti-Teutonic car
tographers. and they are at present
separated by the gulf of war.
We are then thrown back upon a
discussion of the two maps. of the
Europe that will come if Germany
wins, of the Europe that will be con-
structed if Germany is beaten. Such
consideration of the pending ques-
tions need not, then, transcend the
bounds of neutrality. and the purpose
of this article is not to discuss the
moral or military weight of the two
claims, but to indicate so far as is pos
sible, exactly what the claims are
and what are the statistical, geograph-
ical and chronological circumstances in
volved.
German Partition Unlikely.
"A
that may be eliminated from the dis
cussion. When the war broke out
there was much talk in allied quarters
of a partition of Germany. The work
of Bismarck was to be undone and
freedom" was to be bestowed upon
the subject provinces of Prussia. 1t is
doubtful if any one now believes such
a partition possible, and its desirability
is quite as dubious. 1t may be assumed
as fair basis that the unity of Ger
many, except for AlSace-Lorraine, will
not enter into the question of the map
makers hereafter, even if the war
should end in German disaster.
BY the same process of reasoning the
German plans for the partition of
northern France may be dropped
France has not merely proved herself
indestructible, but it is conceded in the
terms of the recent peace discussion,
which certainly had German approval,
that France is to be left undisturbed
. in Europe. Conceivably victorious
Germany might insist upon few
square miles of the district about
Briey, where the great iron mines are;
but this may fairly be taken as the
sum of Germany's territorial demands.
Apart from the question of Belgium
and Luxembourg, it is now plain that
the great settlement will be chiefly
concerned with reorganizing eastern
and southeastern Europe, and it will
be Russia and Austria who Will be
asked, as the result determines, to pay
the costs of peace.
Should Germany Win.
Taking now the first of the two pos
sble Examinations of the war, what
will be the changes in the map of
Europe of August l. 1914, if Germany
wins? 1t is possible to make all sorts
of estimates, based on the extent and
character of the German victory. Thus
it is impossible te make any forecast
If we are to assume that Germany is
presently to beat all her foes to their
knees and impose her terms on a Eu-
rope as completely at her feet as was
the Europe of the first decade of the
last century at the feet of France.
But great as Germany's triumphs
have been, there is no prospect yet of
such triumph, and the first tentative
proposals show no disposition to pro-
ceed upon such an assumption. A Ger
man victory now may fairly be de-
scribed as the success of Germany and
her allies in holding the territories
conquered and defending Consta antinople.
Such a success would mean that Ger
many could hold out where she stands
until exhaustion brought her enemies
to the mood of peace making.
Now, on such an assumption it is
plain that Germany would go to the
peace congress- the later edition of the
congress of Vienna, which remade Eu-
rope a century ago. with certain we'll
defined claims and purposes. She
would be in possession of much terri
tory which she might claim as the
booty of war. She would have much
more-northern France, for example,
which might be used as a basis for
Might Claim Belgium.
In this situation Germany would
probably claim the right to hold Bel
gium and Luxembourg. either absolute
", insisting that they be incorporated
in the empire as are Bavaria and
Baden. or merely demand certain COM
mercial and military privileges. which
would moderate the appearance rather
than change the fact of her conquest
of the Belgians.
In the same fashion she would claim
the right to set up kingdom OF Po-
land consisting of all of the Russian
Polish provinces, which would be an
Austro-German protectorate, and prob
ably would be increased by the addi-
tion of certain Austrian and possibly
German territory populated by Poles
and part of the ancient Polish king
dom. She might also demand Cour-
land. with Riga, now partially occu-
pied by her armies; she might demand
that Finland be restored to Sweden.
This with questions of indemnity and
colonies which do not concern us here.
would be the sum of German demands
Tor herself.
What Austria Wants.
For Austria, Germany would ask
other and quite as considerable con-
cessions From Italy 1t may be
guessed that there would be asked any
extension. of the Austrian frontier
which has proved of value in the pres
ent conflict. But it is wholly unlikely
that Austria would ask or desire to
take back Venetia and saddle herself
with a new Irredenta problem. If
Italy is defeated now, the question of
Triest and the Trentino may be re-
garded as settled for years, if not for
ever.
What Austria desires is expressed in
week ago under the vague formula of
This means two things. 1t means great
territorial changes: it means that Rus
sia would have formally to renounce
her pretensions to influence as the pro-
tector of the Slavs of the Balkan
peninsula. This. it will be recalled,
was the occasion of the present war.
which resulted from Russian insistence
the right TO protect Serbia against
Austria.
II is fair to assume that Austria
would demand the right to occupy all
of Serbia and Montenegro. These states
would become either an integral part
of the Hapsburg kingdom or else a
prote ected" state. which would be COM
pletely su5servient to Austrian will.