Daily capital journal. (Salem, Oregon) 1903-1919, 1915-10-21
.HENERY CLEWS LETTER
DISCUSSES THE CROPS
Last Years Crops In United
States Worth About Eleven
Million Dollars


preelates that O certain class of in
duustrials must profit by war, in spite
Of the larger losses elsewhere; also
that this country stands to lose less and
gain more than any other from the
tragic struggle abroad. But what are
the factors that are carrying this rise
INTO otner classes of investments ?
They are chiefly these: An extraor-
dllary harvest, and an equally extra
ordinary redundance of money. Com
bined, these two influences are quite
sufficient to account for the recent
strength of the stock market, although
there were Others serving to stimulate
the general buoyancy, such as the sue
eCessful placing of the Anglo French
ioan and the apparent cessation of the
public hostility to railroads and other
large corporations.
Last year the new wealth produced
on American farms was officially placed
at about $4,000, 100000. This year it
will be nearer $1,000 100000 than 10.
me five principal grain crops of the
United States amount to NOT less than
. ,82a ,VO0, 900 bushels, compared WITH
4,S43,0OO,OOO bushels a year ago. This
IS an increase of SS4,00O,000 bushels. a
gam of tremendous Importance consid-
e1ng the good prices and the good mar
ket assured for the surplus. Europe
Will need all that we can spare; assur
ing prosperity for the American farm.
or and good business throughout the
western agriculture districts. This in
turn means heavy demands upon the
transportation facilities. better rail
road earnings and larger demand by
the railroads for equipment and. all
sorts OF materials. Thus the bounty
OF nature is already beginning to
stimulate trade and industry through
all its channels, and the next three
months seem destined to witness a yerv
decided Improvement in general busi-
ness. The stock market, recognizing
these conditions well in advance, has
already begun to discount them; hence
the strength in railroads and the mn.
ward movement in the better class of
industr'ais, which has not yet spent
its full force.
The next factor of Importance is the
great abundance of money and the ire.
mendous increase in credit facilities
made possible by the operations of the
new banking system. Our large surnlus
reserves; the enormous stock of gold
held IN this country, and the new
banking system are three elements
which combine to produce a powerful
'inileieatiohary n movement Opinions may
Iliter 1 as to the desirability of such in.
flation, but the fact will have TO he
recognized that the movement is ON and
mas by no means as yet run its course.
Our credit situation is still eminently
sound, and a much greater expansion
can be permitted under present condi.
lions without in any degree weakening
tthe general situation. Apart from the
Denetieent Influence of good harvest
TINS abundance of money and the i'm.
PrOVement in the credit situation arc
bound to prove powerful stimulants in
further business activity.
The execution of war orders is still
having very decided effect. 1t is moi
only keping the lines of industry i'm
mediately affected extremely busy but
me wages and the profits thus OBJ
taihed are gradually filtering into 9th
or channels of trade and doing theil
share toward Improvement. Prepara
atoms to finance the new foreign loar
created little disturbance in tine stock
market although payments by the un
derwrltlng syndicate became due or
the 10th inst The success of this is
sue was a ioregone conclusion, and ha,
already been amply discounted. Their,
VIII be no difficulty in shipping the
grain and cotton which are now be
gaming to come forward for export
rms loan has unquestionably avertet
serious crisis in our foreign trad,
whicd would have injured us more
than France or England. Without the
loan our farmers would have been un
able to have found u market for thi.
enormous surplus, and business up
neaVal OF some sort would have beer
inevitable. As it is, the exchange stu
auon mas been greatly relieved and nc
Serious difficulty is anticipated. Tn,
iNgh prices obtained by some securities
have undoubtedly encouraged foreipI
selllngi and tnis,tuo, will afford som,
relief in the absence of ADEQUATE mer
chandise imports. During the next few
months the excess of exports is hkely
10 run Qa an enormous scale, estimate
having been made that the excess at tn,
end OF the calendar year will be ovel
y ,VO0 100000, and may run as nigh n
vi l,oOO 100000, The war continues ,
controlling feature in finance, although
we are well adjusted to present condi
ti0ns.
In view of the excessive rise in som,
shares purcnasNj will have to be mad,
with growing discrimination. There ar,
sun attacrtive opportunities in som,
OF the speeielties, in a number of tn,
wei established industrials and il
standard railroad issues. The latte
nave received increasing attention, bu
nave not yet come into their own
Earnings are beginning to increase
heaVy traffic Is in prospect, and n ser
lous ear shortage 10 already among th,
imminent possibilities. Some OF th
roads have shown much better net re
suits as n result Of enforced economies
and nearly all win be obliged to ente
tne market for rails, cars, locomotive
ana other supplies much more freel,
than for several months, all of whicl
W'l benett the steel industry. Their
~ q marked cessation of hostility Il
the railroads, which will tend to re
store them In favor as investments. TIL
Dond market continues very active, an,
there is evidently an abundance o
capital awaiting employment when In
terms are sufficiently attractive. Tn
war; however, renders many investor
somewhat cautious, and capital general