New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1915-08-09
Prospect for Long Drawn
Out Conflict and More
Great Exports.
RAILROADS AND WAR
ORDER BUSINESS
Tonnage Necessary to Increase
Carriers Receipts-FundS
Ready to Move Crops.

The CAPTURE of Warsaw by the Ncr-
man forces last week indicated to most
in the financial district that, barring
a possibility of popular uprisinGs' the
war abroad must be drawn out much
longer. Few. save those moved by their
svmpathv with the Teutonic allies
doubt that finally victory will come
through sheer pressure of superior re-
sources of men and money. To us ms
signifies that the Industrial plants oil
cur country must continue TO furnish
ammunition and probably an ever IN,
creasing variety of manuiacVure1
goods TO the rest Of the world ana
that our foodstuifs will be drawn on
Our trade is one-sided and will prob
ably continue so. Payment for gov
ornmcnt purchases. however, has Deeh
arranged for by skilled bankers, ana ~
is TO be assumed tina. the great gold
boards of the central banks OF the
Allied powers ultimately guarantee
pavment. As the conflict stretches out
TO wears instead of months, the proc
oss Of rcadiustmcnt of our INDUSTRY
necessary when peace comes VIII De
made more difficult. In the meantime
profits from foreign trade spreading
through the nation must be expected
oraEnoIlv TO overcome much Of the
caution with which our affairs nave
been conducted.
Hope of Upturn in Railroads
In the securities market the dis.
favor into which reckless trading OF
the week before brought the stocks
of industrials inflated because Of war
orders. caused more expectation o. an
advance in prices of railroad issues
Preliminary returns Of the carriers,
which are beginning 70 be presented
for the fiscal year, are, OF course not
cverencouraginC. In general, rallroaGS
benefit as total receipts increase 90
lar as the reduction Of expense mas
been attained the roads have cameo
as this represents more eihclen' man
accmcnt. Where il has meant de-
lavcd maintenance IT must be MAGE
up later and paid for more heaVl!N
than had the expenditure been prompt
lv made wncn needed.
As wages received for manufacturing
munitions and crop money are spent
The railroads will have more goods 10
move. The smoking stacks Of fac
tories already require shipments OF
coal and raw material As for war
orders themselves. they appear greater
when reckoned in dollars than in tons,
and il is tonnage that brings prosper
itv 10 the carriers With warning Eu-
rome sending her men to the battlefield
and dcvcting them TO the production OF
war supplies, we must more and more
send our exports in manufacturer
form. Transporting raw material
brings Greater return to the roads than
moving the concentrated product OF
the factory. no matter what NAV be
the difference in classification of rates
War Group Not SO Feverish.
The course of trading in railroads
showed more interest and some price
Improvement. Advances generally were
rot well sustained, but no great amount
of stock came out, and on the week
representative roads went up about a
point. In the industrial list business
was less excited than in the week be-
fore. and there was considerable to in
dictate that in a number of stocks, put
up TO high prices on war order rumors,
distribution was under way. In few
favored issues almost daily gains were
recorded in lively trading.
Much of the discussion Of the specu-
lation in war stocks has been rather
wide of the mark In times such as
these the uncertainty incident TO war
fare breeds wide fluctuations. Differ
ences Of opinion, which always stimu-
late trading. must be expected. Sud
den DEVELOPMENTS in the progress Of
hostilitieS are naturally reflected IN
the securities market. As we are large
~ removed from the dangers of the
conflict and disturbance OF business
has clogged the banks with idle money,
our markets must be expected to be the
centre Of excited dealings.
The recent course of speculation,
however. gave cause for adverse crltl-
cism. knowledge of the actual effect
Of wars demands on most of our in
dustrials has been lacking. Some issues
have made unprecedented advances, and
the public has rushed to the market in
hope Of sudden gain. Buying has had
little to guide il but rumOr, and rumor
has not always been above suspicion
The resulting blind speculation has
rushed prices up in way that prom
ised disaster
steel Issues Strong.
Stocks of the steel companies showed
Pronounced strength during the week.
United States Steel common advanced
to levels reached in only few of the
wears the corporation has been in eX-
istence. The minor steel producers
also were higher. Orders for finished
products are now running so heavy that
in spite of the approach of mill opera
ton to capacity deliveries are being
pushed well into the future. Prices
Of finished steel showed a tendency to
90 higher.
For long time pig iron, the basic
material Of the steel business, has
moved slowly. Il is now reported at
last changing hands at better prices,
with purchasing much better, as 1t APP
pears that further advances may be eX-
rcctcd. Production of pig iron last
month was on a much larger scale.
Only in 1913 did the steel companies
furnaces turn out more pig iron than
IN July.
The Federal Reserve Board has point
ed out to member Institutions that the
rediscount facilities Of the new system
offer sufficient aid TO make easy tinanc-
ing Of the approaching harvests, and
crop moving should not reduce ease of
money here. Cotton, because of the
question raised by Great Brtains con-
traband regulations, may need more
funds than ordinarily, though. Of
course. the outlook is not the critical
one that we saw last summer. Wish
proper precautions as 10 storage and
insurance the staple should provide
adequate securities for commercial pa