Yorkville enquirer. [volume] (Yorkville, S.C.) 1855-2006, 1915-09-17
TWELVE CENTS COTTON
Farmers, Merchants and Bankers
Should Fight for II.
FULLY JUSTIFIED BY WORLDS DEMAND

South $3.50, ,ooo, Ooo-cIear and Com.
prehensive Analysis Of the Whole
Situation.
by Clarence Poe, Editor Progressive
Farmer
| l beg space in your columns, Mr.
Editor, to present a subject Of the
utmost importance to all our southern
country. There is no doubt in most
thoughtful minds but that the south's
cotton crop is going to be worth $780,
100000 to the men who own 1t next
spring, but it is worth only $500,0O0,
900 to the producers at present prices
and it is to save to southern grow
ers and to our southern country this
extra quarter Of billion dollars that
the united energies Of press and peo-
pie should now be directed. The funda-
mental facts seem to me to be clear.
| 1. Cotton, even though the new crop
Of 1915 has started coming on the
| market, is still selling on the basis of
prices fixed by last years 100000
bale crop.
2. These prices must soon be ad-
justed, however, to fit the conditions
Of a $4,000, 0,O0O-bale crop Cor probably
only a 100000 or 11,0O0, bale
crop,) and this adjusted price ought
at the very least to reach IL cents a
pound for middling.
AS briefly now, as clear argument
| will permit, I wish to point out and
emphasize the truth Of these state
ments.
1.-The Worlds Demand Justify
Twelve Cents.
Assuming even a $4,000, 0,000-bale
yield Of southern cotton this year (and
it will probably be less) this years
world production will be 100000 bales
| short Of the worlds conservatively
estimated consumption during the
coming twelve months. This Is to say,
the world will consume every pound
Of this years crop and 100000 bales
Of the present surplus.
Secretary Hester Of the New Or
leans cotton exchange, estimates last
years southern production (not the
commercial crop) at 100000 bales.
| The United States government esti-
mate (16,134,930 plus 794,464 linters)
is 6,926,349-practicall 100000
bales. This was over 100000 bales
in excess of the 1913 crop.
| Now, what happened with this
bumper 1900, O,O0O-bale crop in spite
Of all the demoralized conditions Of
| trade and finance-the crop Of which
it was said last fall we should not
export 100000 bales? The facts are
that the world used so much Of 1t
that the total worlds visible supply
was only 5,435,16S bales, against $685.
276 bales a year before. In other
words. with 17,OOO,O O,OOO-bale southern
crop to handle, the worlds visible sup
ply increased only 100000 bales.
what is going to happen this year
then. with the south offering 5,O00,-
900 or 100000 bales less-and the
production Of other countries also de-
, creased? And this query brings me
to another point:
1.-THE Worlds Crop Prospects JUS
| tify Twelve Cents.
Mr. w. P. G. Harding, Of the Fed
eral reserve board, early In the sum-
mer secured reports from consular Of
ficials all over the world indicating a
total cut in the worlds cotton crop
this year Of over 100000 bales. Egypt
and India reporting radical reductions
in acreage" Since that time the pros
poets have further declined.
But even If we accept this early
over estimate of the crop we see that
if last years crop, being 100000
bales bigger than this years, yet in
creased the surplus only 100000
bales, then this years crop will leave
a 100000 O-bale deficit-to be drawn
from the surplus.
a $4,000, ,OOO-bale estimate for the
south now seems too high. This is
not simply my view, but the view OF
many experts. including so conserva-
the New York Journal Of Commerce
which has just declared that in view
of the present conditions. "the yield
seems likely to be nearer 100000
than 12,OOO,O0O0 bales" And now
comes the Wall Street Journal itself
quoting William S. Halliburton OF
Daniel O'Dell & Co., as saying: 1.-THE
current seasons crop may be as low
as 10,5O0,O00 bales. 1t is entirely
within reach of present conditions
that we shall see 12a cent cotton be-
fore the end Of the season."
These two authorities base their es-
Inmates chiefly on condition reports
from all over the south, but might
have added the further testimony that
the south cut it's fertilizer consump-
ton this. year from 4,431 900 tons to
2,636,O00 tons-almost in half-and
the effect Of this cut will probably
as closer scrutiny is given the fruiting
Of the crop.
The reader can easily see for him
self, therefore, that If we have only
a 10000, ,OO0-bale crop the factories OF
the world would utterly drain the
market dry leaving it subject TO such
conditions as occurred a few years ago
when spectators carried prices to II
and 20 cents a pound.
And now having pointed out that
twelve-cent prices are justified be-
cause the 1915 crop is certainly 3,000,-
600 and possibly 100000 bales short
Of the worlds demands, meaning that
factories and munition factories will
consume all the present yield with the
greater part if not all the worlds
visible surplus. I also wish to call at
tention to the fact that
IlI.-American Prosperity Justifie.
Twelve Cents.
The American Bankers association
has just been meeting in Seattle
Washington. and what was the mes
sage that the president Of this Creates
organization Of financiers brought the