The Topeka state journal. [volume] (Topeka, Kansas) 1892-1980, 1915-03-02
WAR STILL RULES BUSINESS.

| New DIRK banker, III MS CuIIeAl re
view of the conditions that prevail in
the world of trade and finance And
he continues: Now that spring is at
hand, fresh military activities must be
expected; the period of deadlock Is op-
viously drawing to a close, and prep
arations strenuously pushed all winter
by both sides are fastening much
greater and more acute crisis. Hence
action more decisive than hitherto ex-
perienced cannot be far distant. The
intense financial strain abroad was
very sharply reflected in the recent
collapse of exchange, from which there
has been only a partial recovery In
this country the serious arrangement
of our foreign trade resulting from the
war has produced a big excess of ex-
ports which, though f1attering at first
sight, is adding to the general comph-
cations. In settlement for our large eX-
ports we must take either gold or Sc
curities, or else grant extensive cred
it's until more convenient circum-
stances for settlement arrive. Gold we
do not need because we have an ample
supply on hand and regularly produce
a surplus for export. London needs
gold vastly more than do we, and it
is to our own interest to aid and not
embarraSs London; although consid-
cradle sums have been engaged at
Ottawa for New York and more may
follow. At the same time we are talk
ing considerable amounts of Ameri-
can securities from foreign holders, and
under present conditions may continue
this absorption if the inducements are
sufficiently great. Before the war is
over, some very important shifts will
occur in our foreign exchanges. Re-
mittances abroad will necessarily de-
crease owing to reduced foreign hold
ings as we'll as to reduced profits and
dividends. Tourist travel abroad will
be practically nil this coming season,
and the two or three hundred million
dollars which Americans usually
spend every year in foreign countries
will be largely kept 1t home; Incl
dentally to the advantage of Ameri-
can railroads and hotels. There will
also be material decline in immigra-
ton, which has already fallen heavily
and is a factor of some consequence
in our international trade balance.
''Our foreign trade plainly shows
the effects of the war. In January
the total exports of merchandise were
1857. 100000, or $63,8O0.00O ahead of
last year. About $44,0oO,O0O of this
increase was credited to breadstuffs
alone and 100000 to meats. In
addition there was a large increase in
shipments of war materials. Some
important losses, however, had to be
taken into consideration, including a
decrease of about $S,000,000 in cotton
and s2,O00,00O in mineral oils. jan
uary's total exports have been only
twice exceeded; in October, 1913, and
again in November, 1912. Our export
trade, though satisfactory in volume,
has been seriously deranged; and the
heavy shrinkages have only been
compensated for by shipments of
foodstuffs and war materials. The
demand for the latter is liable to sud-
den fluctuations. Should the Darda-
nelles be opened allowing the free ex-
portation of Russian grain, that must
inevitably have an important effect
upon our own exports of wheat; and
when peace begins to dawn, we may
expect a drop in the orders for the
munitions of war which have hither-
to usefully filled the gap in foreign
orders. In imports there was also a
heavy loss, the total for January be-
ing 1922, 100000, a decrease of $32,-
100000, compared with the same
month last year. This left an excess
in exports of s145, 100000, compared
with $500, 100000 a year ago. A more
reliable indication of the effects of
war on our foreign commerce will,
however be found in the country's
record of exports and imports for the
past seven months, or since the war
~. =
period have been s1,334,000, 900, or
S1S7.O00,000 less than the same time
last year. Imports were $3.50, 100000,
or S137, 100000 less than a year ago. |
Here is a loss in exports and imports
combined of 1924, 100000 in the short
space of seven months. AS a result
of these fluctuations the excess of ex-
ports for the seven months was only
s4OS,9OO.OOO. compared with s454,-
900, 900 last year and s430, OOO,O 900 the
year before. The fact that the excess
of exports has dwindled $5O,OOO,OO0
in the last seven months is somewhat
of a surprise. How far this derange-
ment of our foreign trade will extend,
it is impossible to estimate. Much
damage and confusion has already
been done, but we are likely to remain
more fortunate than any other nation,
as long as our ability to ship food
stuffs, cotton and war materials is I'M
checked. Any stoppage of these
through an embargo or other causes
will add to the arrangement which al
ready exists in our foreign intercourse.
The business situation at home is
not satisfactory. Only in the agricul-
tural districts is there any normal ac-
tivity and genuine hopefulness. In
other parts of the country there is a
sane determination to make the best
of things and keep cool under irritat-