The Birmingham age-herald., 1915-11-02
AMAZING GAIN IN |. EXPORTS IS STILL COMMENTED UPON South American Trade Is Causing the Greatest
 Surprise of All NOTHING LIKE IT
 IN WORLDS HISTORY America Now Bending Every Energy to Hold This Business After
 the European War
 Ends
By HOLLAND

the spring, one of those who have impor- tant connection with the vast purchasing agency established for Great Britain with of the large and highly gratifying increase In the exports from the United States, saying that the movement began on a large scale in October of 1914. He pointed to figures which were authoritative, be- cause they came from the department of commerce at Washington, which showed that between October and the first of June the money value of our excess of exports over imports, as compared with the like periods of previous years, was approximately $S000O0,O00. He said fur thermore, that he had been at some pains to make an analysis of these exports and the result was somewhat astonishing
 The larger part of this increase was represented by purchases in the United States of wheat and other food products of horses and mules and, to some ex- tent, of cotton. These figures seemed all the more astonishing in view of the fact that every day reports were published which told of the purchase by the bellig- erent nations in the United States of va rious kinds of raw material. Neverthe- less, an analysis of the exports did not tend to support these reports unless it were assumed that the greater part of these munitions of war was being manu- factured and would be exported from time to time, beginning later in the year.
 If, thertfore, the reports of the pur- o1,1 purchases which have been made through the agency of J. P. Morgan & Co.,, were correct, the United States has good req son to expect an amazing increase in our exports, which would begin, he said, in the fall of the year.
 There was, he continued, every reason for believing that the nations across the other food products in amounts as great, probably greater, than were the purchases of commodities of this kind last fall.
 That was a forecast made by compe- tent authority in the late spring of this year. The latest of the official statements from Washington appears fully to justify this forecast. But it does a great deal more. It tells a story of world trade un- surpassed even unmatched, since the na- tions of the world began to trade one with another. It also reveals both the direct and indirect effect of the European war upon our commerce with nations which are at peace.
 Last winter some discussion which cen- tered upon our South American trade took place in New York and Washington and in other parts of the country. There seemed to be apprehension that Amer ican merchants and manufacturers, and especially American bankers, would not be disposed or able to take full advan- tage of the opportunities which were opening, for instance, in South America, for increased trade.
 Frank A. Vanderlip, president of the City bank, which has established banks in South America, was quoted as having said that branches of that kind would un- doubted,y not only facilitate trade, but originate it. His own institution, the Guggenhems and others, who have large interests in South America, began to sub stitute dollar exchange for exchange in pounds sterling, presuming that exchange of that kind would facilitate trade
 It was said this morning that there must have been other efforts and in tluences of which the public had lit tie knowledge undertaken for the pur- pose of increasing our trade with South 2aiicllcd anu ldhiiS duNduldSS OI Lne inability of Great Britain and Germany to maintain the markets in South America which they had with almost infinite pains and by free extension of credit and loans established In South American countries.
 Whatever the reason the statistics which have come to Washington which tell of our trade with South American countries in the past eight months are as astonishing as they are unexpected. We aided Argentina a few months ago by assisting in floating loan, and Argentina has responded, for our ex- ports to that republic were 12,000,000 money value greater in the eight than they were for the like period of the preceding year. Brazil which heretofore has not bought as heavily in the United States as many have thought she should have done, in- creased her imports from this coun- try in the eight months ending August 30 by 6,000,000. and there are propor tionate increases in our exports to other South American countries
 In the financial districts these fig ures have been read not only with qualification, but with hope, because the belief is strong that if we have been able in the past eight months to make such inroads in the foreign trade of South America as these figures indicate we should be able to main tain that increase. or a good part of it, after the European war is ended. Re- ports were in circulation in this city two weeks ago that the secretary of commerce. MT, Redfield, is now per suaded that the visible trade balance in favor of the United States for the