The Bridgeport evening farmer., 1915-04-30
General Trade Conditions
 and
 Business Forecast (1ssued by The Connecticut National Bank)


 Figures representing business totals may now be presented with very little ,x1nlan1ation as present figures com pared with those of a few weeks ago snealx plainly for themselves. While some lines of trade are enjoying all most unbounded prosperity, others are doing just a normal business ana ScllA others are barely existing This con f5iffoY, will probably continue as long as the war lasts after which business should even up and lines which are now dormant, at best Tnoderately active. should then resume their nor nal state
 Bank clearings for March were 1S, ,s43 million dollars compared with s14, ,25S millions a year ago, decline of al- most 3 per cent. This decline, how ever, is fully accounted for in the op- era+ion of the Federal Reserve banks which reduces the total of bank clear ings.
 The business mortality for March included 1,985 failures compared with a s63 a. year ago. The total liabilities of these failed concerns were 26.771 rn1l- lion dollars compared with 2s,816 r1dl- lion dollars for the concerns fadling In March, 1914. The total assets or the failed concerns this year were f11l- iv so per cent of their liabilities while the concerns which failed in March, i914 had assets of only 50 per cent or their Liabilities The actual loss to creditors ssthereforezfrom the mcreased nzzmber Of failures was no more this year than on the smaller number or failures last year
 FInancing in March by corporations amounted to only 78 million dollars but almost 40 per cent of this amount was for new capital, while during recent Enaonthas about 30 per cent. of all finan- cfE1e haSSbAen for refunddng. a#s Dividend and interest disbursements ! for Aprn will total 164 million dollars which is exactly the same as in April Hast year. Dfvddneds will be 85 million dollars compared with S6. millions last year and interest 79 millions compared with .78 millions last year March and .ApriI dividend payments evidence the Improved business of the first three
 months of the year.
 0Of the 300 mi11ion dollars of securities during in 1915, more than one half I has already been provided for, leaving
 only 45O millions Of maturing securf- ties to be either paid or refunded dur ling the next nine months
 ] During March, building operations in I 1S0 cities totaled about 75 million dol- I lars compared with 85 millions year Elago. Good increases were shown in Ball lfinore, Detroit, Milwaukee, Newark T New Haven Syracuse, and Toledo, the I remainder of the principal cities show ling a decrease from last year. The out Hook for heavy building in the princi- tpa1 cities is not promising Labor agt- tation. strikes and lock-outs have halt lted operations amounting to millions of Fl dollars already and much of this work has been put over for another month. With exports ranging from sz50 to BOO E million dollars each month and inn ! ports running between 100 and 125 mill l1fon dollars per month we are building E uTo an enormous credit balance abroad. E There is no evidence that this balance is being paid through the sale of American securities held abroad and in fact those close to the situation be-
 iieve that foreigners are now buying
 practically as many of our securities las they are selling and that their hold Il ings have probably not been reduced
 since the war began by more than a billion dollars, still leaving perhaps ll four billion dollars of our securities
 owned in other countries. Only a
 small proportion of this foreign credit
 is being paid to us in money as ouT
 imports of gold in January in excess A Of our exp6rts amounted to only a.bouf I six million dollars and in February I less. than 12 millions. Our excess o1 gold exports last year axnouted to 16E
 million dollars. Our silver exports in
 February were over three million dol lars with imports over twos millions leaving favorable balance of more l I 7.
 Altogether for this year to date we l have surely created a favorable bal ance still unpaid in excess of 800 mil lion dollars. Any estimate of wha1 t411s balance will amount to by the enc
 of the year would be merely a gues: Il but we'll known economists are esti, mating thesnet favorable trade balance flor 1915 at all the way from one to tive bdfncn dollars. Surely the first figure
 would be a very conservative estimate
 This balance must come to us sooner Tor later either in the return to us oi
 our own securities, in increased i'm. ports or in gold. Tn the natura kcourse of business a portion of it vii
 be paid in each of these three ways.
 In the reports of the railroads fol
 February we should find real e11cour kagement. Cross earnings were 21.
 million dollars compared with 212 kyear ago, a. decline of less than | pel Icent. while net earnings were 51 mil lion dollars or more than 30 per cent stfWhile this Febrrary comparison i,
 with a very poor February in 1914 ye
 the reduction in operating expenses flor February this year of nearly 8 pei E cent. or more than 13 million dollar.
 fndicates that railroad mana gementi
 are making a real effort and an effec z tive one to carry over to the bette
 season which must come to them yer.
 soon. They are now enotying som,
 Increased freight rates and will prob tabIy be allowed still further advance
 during the year. These helps togethe
 with reasonably good crops this yea ought to put the railroads into norma ieondition again and bring about an ac tive demand for their securities Tn economies in operation shown in tn Q February statements were made II . largely of the postponement of tn . fpurchase of the usual amount of equir ] ment. For the first three months ( ' the year, equipment purchases fnclud :. ed nine thousand cars and 206 1ocomC r Itives compared with nearly 32 thou A sand cars and 349 locomotives for tn
 Isame period last year.