The Washington herald., 1915-10-10
BY CYRIL II. BRETHERTON.

BY CYRIL ii. BRETHERTON.
| There has been great deal of mystery
| about what one might call the mortality
among submarines ever since the begin
ming of the war Some few weeks ago
! the Army and Navy journal. a very con-
! servative organ, professed to have good
| authority for the statement that fifty
| Gel man submarines had been sunk since
| the outbreak of the war. Others have
| estimated the loss as high as sixty-seven
boats, while a more conservative eSti-
! mator has put the figure at twenty-five.
The British government has preserved
silence on the subject, announcing the
sinking of U-boat only when the cir
| cumstances were such that the news
must necessarily become public in any
| event. A recent statement by Arthur J.
Balfour, secretary of the navy, was quite
ambiguous, being to the effect that the
| number known positively to have been
destroyed was far less than the true
losses sustained by the enemy, while the
total of all the sinkings reported from
various sources would undoubtedly be an
overstatement of the case.
All of which being the case any con-
clusionS we may arrive at in regard to
III" results of the submarine warfare
must be deduced from other facts and
other figures than those above quoted.
Germany's submarine war on British
commerce commenced on February Us Of
tho present year. Between that date and
May the date of the Lusitania sinking
ninety ships were sunk by submarines
with total of 1881 tons. That Is
monthly average of 79, 392 tons. Between
May and September 4. 121 ships were
sunk with q total tonnage of 33l .127 tons.
That is a monthly average of S2.S2 tons.
Lastly. from September / to September
GO. inclusive, twenty-three ships with a
total tonnage of soo74 tons were sunk.
and in addition a sailing ship. Trawlers
and fishing boats are not included in any
of the above estimates.
Eject OF Increased Vigilance.
1t appears clearly from these figures
that there has been no diminution nor,
for the matter of that, any increase in
the number of victims that have fallen
to the U-boats since the beginning of
this campaign. and 1t is a safe inference
that whatever may have been the NOR
tality among the underwater craft. the |
number of them in operation has not |
decreased. Of course this does not prove !
anything definite in respect to the num- |
ber of U-boats sunk by the allied patrols |
Germany might have decided in the first |
instance to send the submarines out |
two at time, and might have continued |
to send them out two at a time even i
though most Of them did not return. |
And in that way she might now have
only three or four left without the num-
Der of ships sunk falling off, On the !
other hand, We know that Great Britain |
has enormously increased the number of |
patrols, seaplanes. nets and other de-
vices with which she is endeavoring to
combat the submarine menace. Assum-
ing that these are in any way effective
it might be argued that for Germany to
have sustained the ratio of ships sunk
she must have used more submarines
Again. the more U-boats sent out to
operate. the greater the likelihood that
some of them will be destroyed.
What, then, are Germany's resources in
craft? At the outbreak of war
she had twenty-seven OF these craft in
commission and fourteen others building
or ordered. Prior to February IS at least l.
seven of these had been sunk. and allow
ing for wasteage both before and after
the outbreak of war it is probably safe
to deduct ten from the original twenty
seven This would leave seventeen. And
of the fourteen building probably four
were completed. That would mean that
started her submarine war with
twenty-one vessels in hand. The remain
ing ten of the fourteen have probably
been added at the rate of about three a /
month. In addition to these it Is certain
that there were building at krupp's and
elsewhere at the outbreak of the war
several submarines for other powers. The
of these It is not possible to esti-
mate.
1t would not be too high to put the
number at eleven. This would mean that
Germany could add three month to
her undersea feet from March up to !
he end of last month (September) ex- I
lusive of any she may laid down since
he commencement of the war. If the
British have sunk three for every three
ldded Germany would still have twenty 4
me submarines in action and the allies
would have accounted for twenty-eisht.
'robobly this figure is pretty nearly {
orrect For II is certain that with !
n accession or three boats a month to 2
er fleet and no losses Germany would l
lso increase the number of submarines
ent to operate against neutral trade
nd the number of merchantmen sunk
must have increased considerably. On
he other hand II. as Is probable, the
British feet has managed to keep the
'-boats down to their original number
he monthly average of merchantmen
unk would remain the same.
No U-Boats In Mediterranean.
Not too much Importance can be at
ached to the claims of the Germans to {
ave sent U-boats to the Mediterranean.
It the outbreak OF the war Austrfa was Z
redited with between fifteen and twenty {
only one or two Of which {
ave been reported sunk. No Doubt 0eoaif