The Washington herald. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1906-1939, 1915-10-31
At This Rate She Can Con-
;. tinue the War Seventeen
Months More = Teuton
Driving Power Acquired
by Her Enemies.
By CYRIL III. BRETHERToN.

The only way in which a war can be
won is by destroying the enemy's armies
in the field. This can be done In two
ways. They can be beaten and dis
persed in battle or they can be worn
down. The first alternative requires
both superior strategy and a superior
striking force: the latter, superior re-
sources in men and munitions
In the. civil war the South was worn
down. In the Franco-Prussian war, the
French were decisively crushed In the
field. In the civil war Lee always had
superior strategy but never superior
striking power. except as the result OF
some temporary disposition OF his forces.
He could administer a tactical defeat TO
the armies of the North but he could
not crush them. Grant. on the other
hand, by his superior resources, was
able finally to wear Lee down. In the
Franco-Prussian war. the Prussians had
both superior strategy and superior
striking power and they were able to
defeat their enemies with a few terrific
blows.
At The beginning Of the present war
it looked for a time as II the German
armies. by their superior striking power
coupled with q daring strategic plan,
would crush the French armies and the
British expeditionary force. driving them
-SdSlN6TO against NOSseS
But the strategic plan failed for rea-
sons that are TO technical TO discuss
here and the superior striking power was
gradually lost until now it has. passed
from German into allied hands. But
with the complete intgenchment of both
armies, there is no longer a possibility
OF great strategic victory and there
fore no possibility Of either side crush
ing Its adversaries in the field One or
he
is to be defeated. II is no longer rea-
sonably possible that the Germans can
wear down their adversaries on the west
front. II is possible but by no means
certain that the allies can command a
SUFFICIENT superiority of men and NUM-
tons TO wear down the German forces.
The allies problem on the west front
therefore simple one. They must
on killing Germans and the quicker
&c better. II there are still few allies
It to stagger along the road to Ber-
in after the last German soldier is
lying face downwards in the mud, the
war will be won. OF course, the actual
hghting will not be carried TO that ex-
trenne point.
There will come a tine-that is to say,
If the allies are going 10 break through
at all on the west front-when the allies
will drive a hole in the German line as
they did in the recent fighting in Cham
payne, and the Germans will not have
any re-enforcements with which TO plug
the hole Then It will be all over Can
the allies do it? That is simply a ques-
ton Of mathematics. Will they have .
superiority OF men, a superior supply OF
munitions and guns?
It has been stated on many occasions
that the allies will need an "overwhelm-
insly superior" force to break through
the German line. That is not so. The
losses Of the attackers IN successful at
tacks made after suficient preparation
by artillery fire have not been greater
than those OF the attacked. But on the
other hand. mere preponderence OF
men and munitions do not insure instan-
taneous victory for the allies. A certain
number Of men and reserves can defend
the German lines and that number has
no reference to the size Of the enemy
forces. Just what this number is has
been variously estimated. Probably 1900
men to a mile. and half that number IN
reserve. is the minimum. That would
give a total OF 100000 which the Ger
mans must keep on their western battle
line II they are to keep the allies from
breaking the lines. To replace casual
ties this number must be added to at the
estimated rate OF about 100000 a month.
On the Italian front, the Austrians are
said to have about 10000 men. Casual
IleS nlIheTIO nave not DSen excessive on
this front on account of the strategic
and tactical difficulties of the terrain.
But in the last few days the fighting
there has been increasing enormously in
severity. II the pressure is kept up, the
Austrian wasteage will certainly not be
less than $1,000 a month. II is not at all
certain that the number OF men here
given-5Oo. oOo-are enough to hold this
front. But they have held It so far, and
- ~
tinue to do so.
On the Russian front II has been es-
tinated that the Germans have 100000
men and the Austrians 100000 These
figures are very uncertain. Probably
they are too high now, though more or
less correct when the Russians were be-
ing driven from Galicia. AS to waste
and the number OF prisoners reported
taken BY either side is far in excess of
anything reported elsewhere. The
monthly wasteage cannot be much less
than 2c.o00.
What the Austro-Germans are doing
g. Serbia is not clear. II is doubtful
90 80 present time they have more
I'D men there. The wasteage,
=. will be extremely high II is
Nnock-dovn and drag-out affair |
: allies are able to get the as
: stance of the scrbians and prolong the
fight, and the Germans do not abandon
il, the losses Of the latter will easily
amount. to 5000 month.
We have here. then. a total force of !
100000 and monthly wasteage OF $780, |
900 month. What reserves have the |
central empires 10 meet this wa.teage |
with?
A percentage OF the men included in |
the wasteaEe find their way back to the |
ranks. 1t is estimated that Of total |
casualties an average Of one-ftth are |
killed. one-ffth taken prisoners and |
three-hfths wounded. And Of these |
three-hfths, 80 per cent return to the |
ranks, That would mean that the
permanent wasteage should be reckoned |
at approxina tely 10000 a month.
1t is estimated that Germany has
put into the field 5000. 900. This is an
enormous percentage, 10 per cent of
population being regarded as the |
usual maximum. Add to this 10 per
cent OF the population Of Austria
Hungary-and there is not the least
likelihood that the dual monarchy
has been able to exceed the 10 per
cent Hmit-snd we have a total
available force Of I4,5o0,o 900 How
many OF these have been lost?
The. Amsterdammer courante. the
only paper which seems to keep track
OF the printed casualty lists of the
Germans and Is therefore pretty ac-
curate. places the German losses TO
late at 100000. The Austrian losses
cannot. on the same basis, be less
than S,Soo.ooo. giving q total of $780,