Evening star., 1915-11-14

Prussian lists. With the losses of Sax
ony, Bavaria, Wurttemberg and Baden.
which report separately, the German
loss would be 100000; but this is the
gross. not the net or permanent loss
On the other hand. no report Is mace
of the losses through disability other
than by wound. British experts nave
calculated that this about balances the
gain by the return of the wounded.
which would make a loss through dis
ability of about per cent monthly.
not high figure, considering the STRAIN
of the campaign and the inferforlty OF
material, for the armies OF the con-
script nations are not picked men. Ac-
is wholly reasonable, the British esti-
mate would be corroborated.
/ call attention, in passing, to the re-
cent comment of the New York Even
ing Post correspondent, who, writing
under a Berlin date, but obviously after
had studied the official lists for the
week ending October l and these show
ed a total OF $1,000. On this basis the
loss for year would be S,225,oOO. ana
for fifteen months 100000 gross or
$4,000 600 net. again with no allowance
again. is 81 ght but interesting corrob-
Grafton for the British estimate
Status Next Year.
We have seen that II the French esti-
mate is correct, the decline In German
numbers has already begun. Taking the
British estimate, Germany will now
have 3,750.0O0, less a number which
must be allowed for those who will
ultimately recover and be available.
but at any fixed time prior to that Will
not be available. Thus. when the war
ends. Germany will have several nun
dred thousand men. who few months
later would be available. but must
otherwise count as a permanent loss.
Allowing $4,000 for these. which Is an
arbitrary figure, Germany had Novem-
ber 100000 men available Allow
ing a net loss of 6 per cent a month,
she will have January 1 about 2,s0O.oOV'
and April ] 100000, or a number one
third smaller than the average size OF
her armies in the first year. OF course,
If the French figures are taken, her
army will be very much smaller.
Now. on the same basis. what have
the French losses been? France mas
averaged 100000 in the field since the
war began. rather less than more BY
November l her permanent loss had
been 100000. and allowing for the
wounded who would ultimately De
available, but not at fixed time, pre-
cisely as in the German case, she would
have 100000 available. Her decline,
then, has set in; henceforth her army
will lose actually because her reserves
are exhausted. On January l she will
rule. On April 1 the number will be
1,550,oo0.
More Than All the Germans.
But the French army will still have
by its side in the west 100000 Bri-
tish, because the British had on No
vember 1 not less than 2,50O,000 troops
available, and this would enable them
to maintain an army Of 100000 in
the west and 100000 in the east or at
home. and supply all casualties. The
Anglo-French force in the west would
thus be on April 1. when the spring
campaign might be expected to begin.
over 100000, or more than the whole
German force left in existence.
AS to Austria, the estimates are va
rious and highly involved. In the open
ing days of the war Austrian armies
were routed and vast captures made.
At Przemysl over 10000 were taken.
Austria has lost since the war began
upward Of 100000 prisoners. Her
fixed at not less than 100000, leaving
her 100000 available. On November
I this number would be 1,650,000; on
April 1, 100000. Thus. in the spring
Austria and Germany would together
dispose Of S,5o0,o00 accepting the British
estimate; according to the French 1t
would be little more than 100000.
Strength Of Russia and Italy.
In the case of Russia casualties are
of less moment. Having at least IT,
600, 900 men, Russia used in the first
year some 100000. and lost, perhaps,
3.50O,000. Since then she has lost. per-
haps. 100000; but her problem is not to
find men, but equipment. Thus her
army may fall to 100000 in times OF
defeat and disaster, but next spring
she will have at least 100000 again,
which is about the size that her field
armies are fixed at on a war footing.
AS to Italy, the situation is quite the
same. Italy has only put an army of
$780, 900 in the field, and she can keep it
at this figure for several years, having
a reservoir of 100000. Combined,
Russia and Italy should have 2,750,O00
men on April l, and behind them
very great reserves. This is to be set
against the Austrian strength of 1900
600 and no reserves. just as the Ger
man 100000 may be set against the
forces of 2,550,00O, be-
hind which are considerable British re-
serves. both of troops already in hand
and prospective enlistments.
We have. then, according to this esti-
mate for April l, 5,250.0o0 for the quad
ruple alliance and 100000 for the
uudi. Al duQltIoH RUSSIA ana 1tdiy Will
have several millions of reserves each
and Great Britain at least one.
The Butchers Bill.
April l, accepting the conservative
British estimate, Germany will have
lost 5,450.000 in killed, captured and
disabled; France, 2,450,-
900: Austria, 100000. Russia's losses
will not be less than 100000 Great
Britain's will pass 1,250.OOO; ItaIy's will
be close to 100000. But the essentia
fact to recognize is that the weaker
alliance, SO far as numbers are con-
cerned, will then be hopelessly out
numbered in the field and destitute of
reserves, while the opposing alliance
will have both larger field armies and
very considerable reserves still avail
able.
Such troops as the Austro Germans
then have will in the opinion of the
allied experts be wholly insufficient,
not merely to take the offensive, but to
hold the long fronts both in the east,
the west and south, which will include
both the Italian front and the Balkans.
By this time the allies are certain that
the retreat from Poland or Belgium
will be inevitable, and the first sign of
German retreat will be accepted as
proof of German defeat
All allied military authorities expect
10 see the war ended by German ex-
in men by the approach of
aext autumn and possibly by midsum-
ner. They find additional support for
heir faith in the growing difficulties
IF the German food situation. There |
are considerable differences between
French and British estimates of Ger |
nan losses; there is no difference, save
time, as to the actual exhaustion |