St. Johnsbury Caledonian. [volume] (St. Johnsbury, Vt.) 1867-1919, 1915-01-13
.As BRADsTREET's SEES 1T

and Predicts Worst Is Over.
Nineteen hundred and fourteen
was a period of disquiet, of disap-
pointment and alarm at home and of
cruel stress and tribulation abroad.
In view of the wide range of hos
tilities, with all its consequences up
on the finances, trade and industry
alike of belligerents and neutrals, it
seems like ancient history to speak
now of the starting point of the pres
ent trouble in the autumn of 1912.
And yet the topping Of the labo-
riously built up structure of COM
merce seems to date from October
of that year.
The Year at Home
Even without the war abroad, the
year would have been a notable one
in this country. New and untried
measures, heritages from the pre-
ceding year-such as the tariff, the
income tax and the currency system
were put into operation. In addi-
ton the legislative mill ground stead
lily, and the federal trade board act,
the antitrust law and the prohibit
ton of interlocking directorates
were among the years products of
uncertain force and meaning. The
of the new reserve system, kept their
assets liquid, credits were closely
scanned and new enterprises, were,
as a rule discouraged.
Measures of Movements
Securities markets were, with fit
full exceptions under pressure in the
first seven and closed through
out most of the last five
rnnnfhG nno1inOc heavily rndna0d %
they were, hardly made fair compari-
son with normal years, therefore.
Stock sales fell AZ per cent and bond
transactions At per cent from the
much reduced totals of 1913. For
eign liQuidations of our securities
was reflected in the largest gold ex-
ports ever recorded. Issues of new
capital in 1914 were 1873 per cent
below 1913 and 33 per cent below
1912; municipal bond issues fell %
and IA per cent behind and incorpo-
rations fell off 46 and 60 per cent
from 1913 and 1912, respectively.
Foreign trade was irregular. Ex-
ports fell heavily, 1876 per cent from
1913, because of lessened buying of
our goods early, and later because of
the practical stoppage of cotton sales
and exports. Import trade decreased
materials showed large gains. Ar
gentine meat and corn penetrated our
markets, the latter even reaching our
American corn belt. Building eX-
penditures reflected the refusal of
capital to new speculative enterprises
as much as overbuilding in the larg-
er centers in a decrease of 10 per
cent following a seven per cent de-
crease the year before.
Industrial outputs showed rela-
lively greater losses than did the
trade, possibly because of the pre-
valance of record capacities for 1913.
Cotton consumption, which for the
season ending Aug. 81, broke all rec
ords, fell 9.3 behind in the first four
months of the new season. Wooden
gained somewhat,
though forcing demand did not off
set domestic dullness, and wool
prices were higher than for years
despite free wool. Pig iron produc-
ton declined rs per cent, lake iron
coal production IL per
cent, but petroleum output broke all
records, gaining 17.7 per cent over
the high record for 1913.
In agricultural lines the years re-
suits were good, except for wars in
jury to cotton prices.
Failures
Those records of the court of last |
resort in the business world made an
record in the year 1914. |
The total was the largest recorded, |
1913 by 14.6 per cent, |
while liabilities were % per cent !
higher. They also exceeded 1898, |
the hitherto record year by rs per |
cent, but the liabilities were per |
cent below 1907 and 1898, the two |
years of evil prominence in failure |
damage. AS to the increase over
1898 in number, however, it might |
be remarked that the number of
hose in business was 6 5 per cent |
greater than twenty-one years ago,
.hough only 3 per cent larger than
n 1908, whose number it exceeded by
l8 per cent. Financial mortality,
those some shining marks. Three
Der cent of the failures contributing
IS per cent of all liabilities, and one
concern furnished ten per cent of
LII liabilities, while bank suspensions
accounted for an equal proportion.
The damage due to large failures
was, however, not so marked as in
1907. December failures broke all
records as to number.
Looking Forward
With the results of 1914, that
year of a hundred years. in mind,
me would be rash who would pin
himself down to hard and fast pre-
1ictions as to the course of 1915
rade. On the stock market theory
hat all bad news is out, any possible
changes would seem for the better.
t needs to be remembered that fol-
owing the first crash of hostilities
md the succeeding recuperation the
effect of the immense war expendi-
ures has been a stimulating one and
European as we'll as American indus
ries) catering to war conditions have
)een accelerated.
The lot of the neutral in the war is
lot an altogether pleasant one-we
n this country have felt this already
but as the leading neutral country,
position which it is hoped we will
etain, we seem destined to fall heir