South Bend news-times. (South Bend, Ind.) 1913-1938, 1915-01-06
Henry Clews Sees New
Era of Prosperity in 1915


over imports amounting 10 S169.-
600. 600.
The outlook for 1915 is unoues-
tiOnably becoming more hopeful 1t
seems impossible TO believe that the
war will last another Il months.
, Those optimistically inclined think it
may be ended in the spring or no.
later than midsummer. Let US hope
their optimism will be justified
The War and It's Effects.
OF the final effects of the war. il is
vet too early 10 form any fixed opin-
! ions; although great political, social
and economic changes must newt
ably follow.
But it is the economic features of
| the war with which this review IS
| chiefly concerned. IT goes without
saying that a struggle which keeps
| 2O,GOO,000 OF men under arms in
wolves momentous consequences. The
| terrific loss of millions OF lives, of
billions OF property, the setbacks TO
morals. science, art, industry. social
welfare. etc, defy calculation. Re-
sponsible authorities agree that the
cost Of the war has been running at
the rate of nearly 5000, 600 a day
to the belligerents alone, and that
should the war last for a year the
cost would run up to about 15,0OO,-
OOO, 900 10 5000, 100000. 1t is only
five months since the war began, and
the new loans for the principal bel
ligerents are estimated at over S.
600, 100000. The figures of course do
not include the vast destruction of
property, nor the diversion of big
population from productive enter
prises. Such losses are incalculable,
vet they will tremendously increase
the cost Of the war. the bulk OF
which must be paid by future gem
erations.
Increase I'm Debts Affect Market.
The huge increases in the debts OF
foreign nations must profoundly al
feet the worlds investment markets,
because a large portion of the saw
ings of the nations involved Will be
thus absorbed for several years to
come. These savings, moreover, Will
inevitably be upon a diminished scale
Before the war began Great Britain
had debt of over $4,000, 100000
Germany's debt was estimated at ST.
1OO.OOO.0O0, not including state debts,
of which Prussia alone carries over
$4,000, 100000. The debt of France is
about $4,000, 100000. Russia's debt is
placed at $4,000, 100000. The an
nual issue of new securities in the
worlds principal money markets IN
normal times is estimated at about
$4,000, 100000, which proves that the
financial problem to be faced Is
stupendous one. Great Britain will
probably finance the war much more
readily than any other 9 igerent, be-
cause of her vast financial resources,
her undisturbed income from foreign
investments; also the fact that her
foreign commerce and shipping have
been, relatively speaking, but slightly
deranged. Her home industry is run
ming not far from normal. British
credit has also shown extraordinary
strength, as manifested in the rise OF
the pound sterling. Francs have also
risen considerably. while marks and
roubles have shown decided decline.
France is a very wealthy nation and
her foreign trade has not been very
seriously affected, but her valuable
industries located in the pOpulOus dis
tricts within the war zone have of
course been seriously impaired. So,
too, have the industries of Belgium,
many of which have been absolutely
destroyed. Germany has suffered
much in the practical suspension of
her vast foreign commerce. Her
shipping is entirely idle, and many of
her industries must suffer keenly
from the loss of sufficient labor In
dustrially and financially, however.
Germany has met the shock surpris-
ingly we'll BY keeping the war in
foreign territory. she has thus far
preserved her industries from phV-
steal destruction, and the blow TO her
finances has consequently been met
much better than expected by her
enemies. Nevertheless, the war came
at a time when her finances were
still feeling the strain of great indus
trial expansion, and her losses can
not but be intensely severe, no matter
how bravely and periodically they
are met. Germany, moreover cannot
avoid suffering severely from the at
tacks made upon her commerce and
finance, while her foreign investments
are much less favorably situated than
the British. Germany's overseas in
vestments are estimated at $1,000
100000, of which $1,000, 100000 are
in Russia, Turkey and Roumania,
where they will be adversely affected
by the war. Her investments in the
United States are figured at $4,000
600 and in South America about
00,000,000. IT is evident that her
investments in the United States are
the most desirable of any she pos
sesses, and those on which she is
most likely to realize if necessary.
AS to Great Britain her investments
overseas are estimated at nearly 500
600, 600, 600, of which over 90 per
cent are outside Of Europe and away
from the influences of this war One
half of her investments are in her
own colonies, and fully $4,000, 00O,-
600 of British capital are invested in
the United States. Belgium has been
practically ruined. and reconstruction
will take many years. France will
probably recuperate rapidly, except
in the devastated districts Austria
Hungary should recover with COM
parative prOmptness. not being q
great industrial or commercial ma
ton. Turkey will probably disappear
from Europe. Russia has vast re-
sources and her internal trade and in
dustry will not be seriously affected.
except indirectly from possible finan-
cial stress.
If the next peace is to be perman-
ent, and If ornaments are TO be kept
down. new means for working on
the basis of live and let live" must
be invented. The ideal plan would be
some form of international fedora
ton, a United States of Europe, a
parliament of parliaments. and an in
ternatiOnal court of final appeal with
power to enforce its DEGREES If this