Daily capital journal. (Salem, Oregon) 1903-1919, 1915-08-18

New York. Aug. II, 1918.
The coming fall season promises Il
be a satisfactory one for the Unite
States, which is 'beneftting by its owl
good fortunes, plus the misfOrtnnes 0.
others. The strongest and most pleas
ing basis OF confidence is the enormous
harvest which we are on tae threshold
OF gathering. The latest government
r port indicates a crop Of wheat Of
100000 900 bushels, or 7G0OOOOJ bush
els more than lat years record crop
Corn promises crop Of 2,9lS,OOOO OOO
bushels, or 207 100000 bushels less than
the record crop of 1912. But this diff
ference may be materially reduced by
favorable weather Oats promise .
iO2,OOOOOO bushels, or about l7,OUO,OOO
bushels below the bumper crop Cd 1912.
For hay the outlook is 75,0OO,OOO tons,
or two and half million tons greater
than the record yield Of 1912. Nearly
all our crops will be larger than last
year, the important exception being cot
ton. For our grain crops profitable
prices are assured because Of the GER
tainty Of large domestic and foreign
demand. Prices may not rule as high
as last year when the war seriously in.
terfered with supplies; and the fall Of
Constantinople, when ii happens, will
have to be taken into consideration be.
cause Russian supplies, which have been
accumulating in the Black sea, will be
released. The only important
drawback in the crop situation is cot.
ton, the yield Of which will be consider.
ably reduced by the smaller acreage
and lessened use of fertilizers The
south is apparently somewhat disturbed
over arrangement caused by the war,
yet less 30 than newspaper accounts
suggest. The possibility Of Great Brit.
ain declaring cotton contraband natur.
ally confuses the situation, and the
problem Of financing this year 8 crop,
which is complicated by the large carry.
over from last season, demands an early
solution. Fortunately, the crop was
raised at low cos. and tae south is
profiting by steady divetsificatin Of
industry.
The next source Of satisfaction in
business circles is the steady widening
IF activity in the great steel industry.
While much of this is due to war con.
racts, many of which promise to be
exceedingly profitable, the latter do not
now form 30 large share Of the total
lew orders as sometimes supposed
There has been a steady and improving
lome demand at rising prices for near.
y all descriptions OF fabricated steel
for constructive purposes
md the railroads have not yet begun to
llace orders with their customary free.
ION. When they do, as in all probably.
ty they soon must, the the steel indus
Try will become even more active and
he flood tide of prosperity in this
!reat industry will be at its height
should the war come to an unexpected.
y early termination, muniton contracts
WILL Of course, be stopped. hut
he devastated regions Of Europe
Sill need large quantities of steel for
construction of all kinds. This demand
will be urgent and cannot be immcdi.
ltely satisfied by either Germany.
France or Great Britain. Inevitably
he United States will get large share
If these foreign orders, at least for
some months after the war, and this
ogetner with improvement at home. in.
lures period of prosperity for the
steel trade for long period ahead.
Attention to 'he foreign exchange
situation was agSin drawn by the rather
'pectacular importation of gold and Sc.
.uritleS from London, brought ON for
chef at this point. Exchange prom.
ses to be a problem of first import.
'nee for several months to come nm.
ess the British government establishes