New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1915-07-07
july Prospects. II.

-
paign and the British conditions were dis
cussed. Looking now at the Dardanelles 1t
IS plain that a campaign begun by blum
der has continued as a rather CHASTITY fail
ure. To undertake the reduction of the
forts without the aid Of land forces and
depending solely upon warships was to fly
in the face of all experience. 1t proved
too. that it was an unwise defiance of mill
tary precept. The naval attack ended In
disaster and advertised to the Turk the
approach Of a land attack. The land at
tack. made with insufficient forces, against
we'll fortified ground defended by admira-
bic soldiers excellently commanded, has so
far been fruitful in little more than cas-
ualty lists
Yet it is fair to say that the Dardaneles
expedition did contribute largely to en-
listing Italy, it has had an enormous effect
upon Bulgaria and seems to have brought
Greece almost to the point of casting her
lot with the foes of Germany. An Italian
expedition to Gallipoh, now discussed,
would only accentuate this situation and
the entrance Of Bulgaria would close the
history of the Osmanli in Europe. We
shall DO we'll in thinking of the Darda-
nelles operation to recall the Sebastopol
campaign, which was one long failure end
ing in complete success.
If the Allies have, as yet, made no real
progress toward the capture of COnstanti-
nople they have recalled Turkish troops
from the Caucasus and Egypt, they have
shaken the Balkan fabric to its founda
ton, and the slightest prospect of actual
victory must inevitably enlist new allies
and threaten not Turkey but Austria. It
is well to recall, too, that the CONSTANT
nople campaign is only side issue for
the Allies, but for the Turk it is matter
of life and death, and for Austria it is al
most as important as the Galicia cam
Paign.
As to the Italian operations, present
disappointment rests chiefly upon undue
expectation. Austria holds the gates to
Northern Italy. She has spent years and
millions in fortifying them. Until these
Notifications, flanked by mighty mountains
and protected by Alpine torrents, are re-
duced Italy can Go little. Against them
she must throw her main forces. because
unless these gates are taken she has to-
fear an eventual German eruption wholly
similar to that which has just cleared
Galicia. Venice, Verona, even Milan, the
whole Pc Valley may be swept by new
drive if Italian effort does not block the
Adige gateway.
On the other hand the entrance Of Italy
has been the greatest fact in the war since
the German drive to Paris broke down.
More and more the pressure of fresh
million of men upon a new frontier will
demand German and Austrian attention.
Ammunition, men, artillery will be re-
called from the east and the west to de-
fend the south. Six months from now the
Italian influence will be felt appreciably,
whether Italian corps are then fighting in
Flanders or Carniola. Again, Italy's en-
trance puts the destiny of the Mediterra-
mean in the hands Of the Allies. The prizes
the smaller nations of Eastern EUROPE
long for are now within the gift of the
anti-German alliance. To Runania, Greece,
Bulgaria, Germany and Austria can give
only money but to Greece and Bulgaria
the anti-German alliance can give por-.
tions of the Turks estate.
1t is well, then, in taking an account Of.
stock at this time to avoid attaching too
great importance to the incidents Of the
month, or even of the year. We shall do
well to accept as the basis of all our COM
putation the fact that German victory can
be achieved only if one Of two things hap
pens: if Germany succeeds in obtaining a
complete decision over one of her foes, or
if one of the great nations allied against
her grows weary or makes a separate
peace. Twice Germany has sought deci-
sion in the east Both times she has
failed. The Russian military power has
not been crushed or eliminated. Her efforts
at the Marine and in Flanders were equally
unsuccessful. France was not disposed of,
suffered incidental defeats, and came back
when German offensive slackened and Ger
many had TO turn east So we may ex-
pect Russia to come back if German effort
is relinquished.
Going back to the Civil War, it will be
recalled that Lee twice sought decision
while Confederate prospects were still ia
vorable Both times he penetrated into hos