The Birmingham age-herald., 1915-10-23

ana regards IL no more as nuisance or deviation from the normal than he regards peace. A year ago when Eng lands Premier Asquith said that the war might last 20 years. neutrals were shocked. They declared that rne world would not stand the unexampled strain. Today nine nations are standing the strain with complete ease, and if neither side wins overwhelming victory there is no reason why the strain should not be stood for a generation.
 The war might stop because there is no men; because there is no money: be- cause of moral revulsion, tedium, and disgust. None of these pacifying influ- ences are in sight. Civil life is today less deranged than it was a year ago. Economic life runs as smoothly as in peace. Within six months of the out break, Europe had adapted itself to the new state. 1t has now got so used to war that peace would at least at first derange, disturb, and even oannoy it Hildebrand says that Europeans are get ting like the primitive tribes to Whom war is the natural state of society. When compelled to keep the peace such tribes feel that their economic and moral inter- ests are hurt. They feel aggrieved Europe is going the same way. If peace is not brought by the destruction of one of the warning groups on the battlefield, Europe will get as used to war as she is used to birth, death, or any other inevitable fact of existence.
 happy Under Worst Conditions
 Hildebrand shows that civilians un- der the very worst war conditions live happily. He visited Goritza town on the Austro-Italian frontier at a time when big Italian shells were killing daily 20 civilians, men, women and children. At first the civilians has panics; after three days they took the bombardments and deaths in as mat. ter a fact way as do men in the trenches. Adaptation is everything. Ii a Swedish town lost 20 civilians from an unexpected bombardment. there would be as great a panic as there was during the first shelling of Antwerp But in short time a new atmosphere would be created. Mans elasticity knows no bounds. The nerves cease to react to danger and inconvenience In peace time a trader closes the shut ters of his store if a mob throws a few stones; in war time, after the first fright, he goes on trading quietly though shells are killing his next door neighbors.' The suffering populations in the actual theatres of war no more clamor for peace than the populations in the rear which are spared. The only war horror which they continue tc dread is defeat. Compared with the moral horror of defeat, all the phys ical horrors and torments of battle are nothing. Hence the one thing which can reconcile any of the pres ent warning peoples to peacewis the conviction that it has been defeated and that nothing it can do will repair the defeat.'
 Expected Factors Fail
 Sharp observers begin to see thai none of the privations and obstacles which were relied on to finish the wal will finish it. Prophecies of the short ness of a great European war have proved wrong. The prophets based their reasoning on the fact that the Franco-German war of 1870 and the Austro German war of 1S66 were shor' and on the theory that the participa- tion of whole nations must bring quickly different kinds of exhaustion Exhaustion of men, of money, ol nerves. Greatest of all the prophets was the Polish Jewish banker, Jean dc Bloch, who gave Czar Nicholas II hi, idea for The Hague Conference. In six thick volumes and 8 supplement Blocf preached that a great war could moi last for more than three months. The development of fortress warfare and position warfare would make it i'm possible for either side to gain rapid victory within three months; and be- fore the three months weer out, finan- cia1 exhaustion, hunger, revolutionary troubles and a general revolt against suffering would compel peace. The richest European power could not finance a war fought with millions oi Boldiers. Bloch was an economist who