The Richmond Virginian. (Richmond, Va.) 1910-1920, 1915-09-13

| utmost Importance to all our South
ern country. There Is no doubt in
| most thoughtful minds but that the
South's cotton crop is going to be
worth $3.50. 100000 to the men who
own In next spring. but It is worth
| only 100000. 600 to the producers
at present prices--and it is to save
to Southern growers and to our South
ern country this extra quarter Of a
billion dollars that the united energies
OF press and people should now be di-
rected The fundamental facts seem
to me to be clear:
! 1. Cotton, even though the new crop
| Of 1915 has started coming on the
market is still selling on the basis
OF prices fixed by last years H.
! 600, 000-bale crop.
t 2. These prices must soon he ad-
justed, however. to fit the conditions
| of a 10000 00O-ba!e crop Tor probab bly,
| only a 100000 or 1900, 0oo- bale
crop). and this adjusted price ought
at the very least to reach IL cents
| a pound for middling.
| AS briefly now. as clear argument
will permit, I wish to point out and
EN- phasize the truth of these state-
ments.
1.-The Worlds Demands Justify
Twelve Cents.
Assuming even 1000. 000-hale
yield of Southern cotton this year
land 1t will probably be lessl. this
years world-production will be g.
900, 90 bales short of the worlds con-
ssrvatively estimated consumption
during the coming twelve months.
That is to say. the world will consum 9
every pound of this years crop ana
1000. 900 bales of the present surplus.
Secretary Hester. of the New Or
leans Cotton Exchange, estimates last
years Southern production mot the
commercial CROP at lI,o04-000 bales.
The United States Government esti-
mate (l6.134.930 plus 79l. lint
ers, is 1926, 349-practically IL
900. 900 bales. This was over 2,0o0.-
| 600 bales in excess of the 1913 crop.
| Now what happened with this
/ bumper f,eee, 1oe-hale crop in spite
| Of all the demoralized conditions o.
| trade and finance--the crop of which
port 1000. 900 bales? The facts are
| that the world used so much af il that
the total worlds visible supply OF all
cotton in midsummer this year was
only 5.435,168 bales against 1922, 2l6
bales a year before. In other words,
with a 1900, 900 bale Southern crop
| to handle. the worlds visible supply
| increas only 1900. 900 bales What
| Is going to happen this year then.
with the South offering 100000 or
5000, 600 bales less-and the produce
ton Of other countries also decreased
And this query brings me to another
! point:
2-The Worlds Crop Prospects
Justify Twelve Cents.
MF,1W p c. Harding. of the Fed
eral Reserve Board. early in the sam
mer secured reports from consular
officials all over the world inaicat-
| ing a total cut in the worlds cotton
crop this year of 100000 bales,
| Egypt and India reporting radical
| reductions in acreage" Since that
time the prospects have further de-
clined.
But even II we accept this early
over-estimate of the crop we see that
If last years crop. being 100000
bales bigger than this years. yet in
creased the surplus only 10000
bales, then this years crop will leave
a 3.0oo.eae-baie deficit-to be drawn
from the surplus,
The facts are, however, that even
! q 100000 bale estimate for the
South now seems too high. This Is
not simply my view, but the view of
many experts. including so conserva-
tive and competent an authority as
the New York Journal of Commerce
which has just declared that in view
of present conditions. the yield seems
| likely to be nearer 100000 than
100000 bales" And now comes
the Wall Street Journal itself quoting
William 8. Halliburton. of Daniel
O'Dell and Company, as saying: The
current seasons crop may be as low
as l0.60o.000 bales. 1t Is entirely
within the reach of present conditions
that we shall see IL 1-2-cent cotton
before the end of the season
These two authorities base their
estimates chiefly on condition reports
from ali over the South. but might
have added the further testimony that
the South cut its fertilizer consump-
ton this year from 4.431,oOo tons to
2,63e.o goo tons-almost In haf-and
the effect Of this cut will probably
make itself most evident from now
Ing Of the crop.
The reader can easily see for him
self. therefore. that If We have only
10000, 0O-bale crop, the factories
Of the world would utterly drain the
market dry. leaving It subject to such
conditions as occurred few years ago
when spectators carried prices to
II and 20 cents a pound.
And now having pointed out that
l2-cent prices are justified because the
1915 crop IL certainly 5000. 600 and
possibly 100000 bales short OF the
worlds demands, meaning that fac
tories and munifion factories will con-
sumo all the present yield with the
greater part II not all the worlds wish
BILE surplus. / also wish to call atten-
ton to the fact that
3.-American Prosperity Justiflcs
| Twelve Cents.
The American Bankers Associa-
ton has inst been meeting In Seat
tie, Washington. and what was the
message that the President OF this
greatest organization of financiers
brought the country He predicted.
says a press dispatch, that IAN al
most unbelievable prosperity is ruseh-
ing on the nation" or to quote hts
exact words:
when bank reserves. which are
greater now than they have ever been
in the history Of the country. are
distributed. the nation will enjoy al
| most unbelievable prosperity is rush
Volume OF money on hand Is SO great
that II cannot find a. natural outlet
The movement of the tremendous
crops, with the attendant financial
activity. win still further increase the