The Birmingham age-herald., 1915-07-22
Imports Fall Off Until Ques- tiOn Is Giving Leaders
 Much Concern
WHAT WILL HAPPEN
 WHEN WAR IS OVER?
England, France and Germany Ex- pected to Bend Every Effort to Regain Trade Which
 They Have Lost
By HOLLAND

New York, July 21.-tSpecial.)-W are not to have, apparently. an interna tional trade in the present calendar year which will equal in money value the records which were made two or three years earlier. We seemed then to be steadily approximating the enormous international trade of Great Britain, and this progress was regarded as due chiefly to very great increase in our exports of manufactured or partly manufa ctured articles. Many of those who discuss our internat tional trade spoke with amazement of the records which showed that our exports of manu- factured or partially manufactured ar ticles had approached and had at last ac- tually passed in money value our exports of agricultural products.
 Yet 10 or 15 years earlier no one would have ventured to predict that there would be such falling off in our sales of the products of the soil to other lands and such an increase In our sales of manu- factured products as actually did take place. President James A. Farrell of the United States Steel corporation, whose organizing capacity and whose achieve ments with that organization are the conspicuous features of the increase of our exports of manufactured products, has occasionally said that the change be- gan in 1903. In 1910. George w. Perkins,
 in speaking to a few friends of our export trade in manufactured articles, referred to the fact that the money value of the exports of the Steel corporation and of the International Harvester company was approximately in that year considerably more than s100000.000.
 In these figures was to be discovered a factor of great significance. For our ex- ports of manufactured products in rapidly increasing amount and money value did not begin until about the same time of the organization of the great units, such as the Steel corporation, the Harvester com- pany. the Niles, Bement, Pond company. and the two great manufacturing con- panles of electrical apparatus
 The presumption has prevailed since the war In Europe began, or at least since the belligerent nations and some of the neutrals began in October to make heavy purchases in the United States that the magnitude of these purchases would make
 1t possible to report record in interna- tlOndl lTdue. | ne ledQerS, however, Tn the great industries when speaking of ths purchases of war material invariably said that these would not be greatly reflected
 in our outgoing trade records until late in the year 1915. Many of the purchase will not be placed upon the commerce bearers for two years. It takes a long time to manufacture machinery appara. tus, rifles, shrapnel and other munitions of War. The automobile manufacturers of Detroit tn have madp r,id delivery, relatively speaking, than have the manufacturers of other articles bought for war use.
 Were 1t not for the enormous increase in the exports of food, the record of our outgoing trade would not have been very gratifying. For instance up to the last month of the past fiscal year we sold and sent abroad commodities whose value was s2,450 100000, round numbers. These figures by themselves were gratifying. since they showed increase, as com pared with like period of the preceding year, of $276, 900, round numbers.
 It would be the presumption of all who read these figures superficially. without analysis of them. that this rema rkable record represents chiefly the exports of war material. But it Is the farmers of the United States, and especially those who cultivate grain, who are entitled to whatever tribute Is due for this increase.
 The Washington authorities report that in II months we sold and exported food products whose money value was sSS7, ,O00,- 000 When it is borne in mind the money value of food products which were sold and exported to foreign countries in the like period of the previous year was only a little over s40O,O0000o. then 1t will be real ized what the enormty of the increase was. These figures will tend to refute those who have apprehended that there would be constant decrease in our ex- ports of food products. Many persons