The Washington times., 1915-02-28
Records Show Peak of Prices
Comes After HositIities Have
Ceased.
By JUDSON C. WELLIVER.


At its high price since the beginning
of the year. wheat has sold for Just
about twice what II likely would have
brought If there had been no war.
Yet the price OF bread has trailed
along so far in the rear that. after the
price of wheat had approximately
doubled, people still were able to get
excited over the fact that bread was
threatening to go up from to 6 cents
the loaf.
viii wheat go yet higher. or will its
rr,ce rcccdcr what has been the ca-
pcriencc of the world In times OF great
war or other abnormality?
1t IS not difficult TO recall that only
few years ago Il good many people
supposed to have insight into worlds
commercial conditions were declaring
era in which it's supply of wheat was
bound to be distinctly lccss than its
need.
Was Impression.
IT was all very impressive and con-
vincing, and the world was whctting it's
appetite for cornpone and other substi-
tutes when only few years ago Can
ada rather unexpectedly appeared all
at once on the wheat map with crop
that caused the brcad-eating world TO
sit up and take cheerful notice. Then
the prophets Of underproduction made
Il quick revision of their calculations to
take modest note Of the fact that they
had carelcssly overlooked the greatest
single undcveloped wheat growing area
i'm tho world.
there has been no such remarkable
phenomenon as the rapid increase of
tho Canadian output II has shot up
from an average OF 3s,ooo.OoO bushels
for the decade from 1872. inclusive.
to 23l .OU.uO in 1913.
perfectly obvious primary result OF
bringing this vast Canadian empire into
the wheat competition was great sag
In world $ prices. 1t Is only a few years
since the statisticians were confidently
assuring the world that dollar wheat
had come to stay. The world would
hardly know in future the privilege OF
buying wheat under dollar the bushel.
Yet almost before the ink had dried on
these printed portents OF disaster for
everybody except the wheat grower. the
price was going persistently downward.
and early last season, when IL was ap-
parent that the United states would
produce record breaking crop. the
Southwestern wheat growers were hur-
rying their crop into a Chicago market
that showed no prospect OF getting as
high as so cents. The authorities are
agreed pretty generally that but for the
war in Europe n good share of the 1914
wheat crop III tHlS CouHlTN "ohlu HaNS
sold under 20 cents.
A World Affair.
The price OF wheat is strictly a world
affair. II is made up every few hours
on tho basis OF Information from every
continent and every cline.
II there had been no war in Europe
beginning last August the low price Of
wheat In the worlds market undoubt-
cdly would have been reflected in a re-
duced planting of winter wheat the past
autumn. II the prices had continued
low until this spring there would have
been further reflection OF that fact in
another reduction in the acreage Of
spring wheat planted in the year OF 1915.
But when tho war started almost its
first commercial effect was a sharp ad-
vance in wheat. which gave every prom
ise of continuing indefinitely. The re-
suit was that in the United States the
sowing OF fall wheat increased between
II and 12 per cent, or about 4nOnO
acres 1t Is yet too early to estimate
accurately what tho incrcas" in the
acreage of 1915 spring wheat will he.
but present price conditions Justify the
expectation that there will be an even
larger proportional increase in average.
What is said here about the influence