The Birmingham age-herald., 1915-10-10
OUTLOOK FOR WINTER. INDEED BRIGHT, SAYS THE FIRST NATIONAL.
 
 Unusually Optimistic Review and Trade Forecast Is Issued by Bank
OF
 BUSINESS ENDED
If It Were Not for Constant Necessity of Readjustment Due to War South Could Rest Content-LOcal COndi-
 tions Are Steadily Improving

letter of the First National bank of Bir- mingham issued yesterday is as follows
 'The commercial and financial de velopments since the last issue of this | little pamphlet. has been of such nature as to confirm the encouraging predic- tions of these columns during the last 1 several months. The stagnation of busi- ness is practically at an end, and were 1 1t not that part of the impetus toward renewed activities is due to an abnormal demand created by the conflict of war, | the commercial contentment of the south would be secure, notwithstanding the material deterioration of crops within the last six weeks.
 If the industrial progress of today were but the offspring of. .constructiveness h. stead of the child of destruction, and we could but be rid of the necessity of con tnuous adjustment because of the kaleidoscopic changes in international af- fairs, we might easily return to the cus- tomary methods of laying plans for the development of the future. As it is, there is substantial fear among the students of economic conditions, that the stimulus from the present volume may bring it's own difficulties when the abnormal de- mand for a number Of commodities shall have ceased. As stocks ascend In the scale of prices by leaps and bounds, to a point far in excess of that justified by the earnings of the corporations holding favorable contracts for manufacture or supply. constant warnings become the doctrine of the conservative advisers. The government crop report on cotton showed an unusual depreciation for this season of the year, contributing doubtless to the upward trend of the market. To the producer of an average crop, the in- n roc Sa in f1rin tr-i11 nffc tbo co in production, but to the cotton farmer with a short crop, whether by storm or insect, by drouth or moisture the situa- tion contains no compensating element.
 Handling Crops We'll
 Tt is gratifying to know that the ham, ding of the crop has progressed favor ably, and that even though we have reached the usual period when the force of the offerings drive the price down ward, it has continued to advance with no lack of buyers in the market. The continuously increasing need for the staple on the one hand, and the realza- tion of a lessening in the production on. the other, have been sustaining factors in the constantly advancing price of the souths chief commodity. These have been fortified by sentiment throughout the entire cotton producing section, in favor of a movement for the gradual sdlc Ol tlc pTcStHI CTO!)t SeQ d0u supported by all of II governments s financial influence, as wea as by the ef- forts of the bankers in the great cities in handling foreign trade relations
 "The announcement within the week of the subscription of American bankers to an Anglo-French loan of one-half bil- lion dollars marks the beginning of new epoch in the commercial development of the country. That it was essential for the stability of exchange values. and the maintenance of export market does not lessen it's significance as a national achievement, and the purposes of it will doubtless early dispel any suspicion that the transaction involved any lack of neu- trality. There has been no publication of list of the participants in the un- derwritlng. but it is very probable that most of the southern banking institutions have refrained from engaging any por- tion of the bonds, even though the south is dependent upon a ready foreign mar ket and a stable exchange value. for support in marketing its chief commod- ity
 "Tbe banks of this section, on account of the fluctuations of the seasonal re- Quirements, have never been able to pur- chase even choice local securities, but have sought to keep their funds in com mercal paper of shorter duration, allow ing municipalities and various political
 
 public utility concerns to sell their bonds away from home. Since the outbreak of the European war and consequent de- rangement of the export market, the banks, in order to patiently extend ex- isting credits and grant further accom- modations to clients depending upon them until adjustments in value and volume might be brought about, have themselves been users of credit, by rediscounting with correspondents in the north and ea st. or with the federal reserve banks in their respective districts. The south ern banks could not, therefore assume to help bear the burden approximately of solving international complexities.
 Local Conditions Better
 ''T'he local conditions continue to grow better. Birmingham may soon aspire to one of the bright spots inF the south. Pay rolls are increasing to the advan- tage of the merchant and the landlord and the gaunt spectre of poverty should be unknown during the coming winter. The sales of pig iron are very much in ad- vance of the production and surplus stocks are no more. Advance sales are freely reported for the output. reaching well into the middle of the second quarter of next year. It is believed by many that No. ? foundry will be selling in few weeks at s13 per ton. There are said to be 27 furnaces in the Birmingham dis trict. and P of them are now in opera tion "a third of which are making basic or steel iron. It Is not at all improb-. able that few more weeks will find more of the idle ones in commission, with an aggregate production of pig iron in Alabama at the highest point in the his- tory of the industry. The steel and wire mills at both Ensley and Gadsden are more actte than for months, with the promise of present full capacities con tinnuing for several months.
 '"The pipe industry reports the same fa- vorable activity, while the foundry and machine shops are in full employment. some of them turning out large consign- ments for the Cuban sugar trade.
 ''The coal operators are still finding some fault with profit accounts, as are the manufacturers of yellow pine lum- Der, but both industries report some im- provement in prices and demand. The Warrior river Is developing as trans portation medium for coal shipments be- tween the coal fields and both Mobile and New Orleans.
 FIRST NATIONAL BANK OF BIR-
 MINGHAM.
 october 10. 1915"
 MarriaUa Ticensea