New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1915-11-14
Expect by Next Spring
They viii Outnumber
Germany and Austria.
Copyright 1918.
By the New York Tribune-)
and very considerable reserves still avail

Such troops IS the Austro-Cermans
then have will in the opinion CT the Allied
experts be wholly insufficient, not merely
70 take the offensive, but 10 hold the long
fronts both in the East, the West and
South, which viii include both the Italian
front and the Balkans. BY this time the
Allies are certain that the retreat from
Poland or Belgium will be inevitable, and
the first sign Of German retreat will be
accepted as proof of German defeat
All Allied military authorities expect
to see the war ended by German exhaus-
ton in men by the approach Of next
autumn and possibly by midsummer They
find additional support for their faith In
the growing difficulties of the German
food situation. There are considerable
differences between French and British
estimates Of German losses; there is no
difference, save In time, as TO the actual
exhaustion Of German man power next
year.
German Arguments.
have set forth the Allied case as IL
has been made in many magazines and
newspapers In France, Great Britain and
Russia. I confess to having found no
German answer which meets the situation
and disposes Of the arguments which arc
the foundation for the belief that Ger
many will be conquered by attrtion. But
| should make 1t clear that not all Allied
observers accept these arguments, and
they are rejected in totality by all German
writer's and sympathizers.
German experts insist that Germany can
put far more than one-tenth Of her male
population In the field, and point to figures
showing at least 100000 available. But
this includes those employed in munition
works, on the railroads and In other
trades which must 60 on II the nation ana
the army are to live. II you grant that
more Germans are available, then neces-
sarily more French, Russians and Italians
are available, and you merely postpone the
inevitable.
Again, Germans argue that the Allies
are at the end Of their resources In money
and that France and Russia are about
ready to make peace. This Is an open
question, but certainly 1t does not affect
the main question, that unless Germany
succeeds in getting peace soon she will be
beaten by mere attrition.
A. to the Balkans.
The German excursion TO the Balkans
does not affect the main situation. Few
Turks are likely 20 be brought TO the West
ern or Eastern front. We have allowed In
our estimate 100000 British troops for
this Near Eastern field, together with the
contributions Of French and British colo
MES, which will be considerable, and Ser
bia remains with quite the same chance
for guerilla warfare that Spain used so
fatally against Napoleon. AS for Bull
garia, her 100000 troops do not represent
one months casualty lists Of her greater
allies.
Germany has not gone TO the Balkans
, to conquer provinces, but peace, in my
+. Judgment Had Constantinople fallen to
, the Allies the moral effect would have
- been terribly disastrous, and 1t would have
o raised Allied hopes to the point where
:, peace would have been next 10 impossible
i on anv German terms. And Constantine
e ple would have fallen II the road to the
a Golden Horn had not been opened for Ger
man ammunition.
But 10 make her Balkan move Germany
had to abandon her Russian campaign. 10
Serbia she sent less than 100000, but this
" lef, her armies in Russia too weak 70
make progress or take the offensive, save
a !, the Riga district This is the best con-
n 6rnation available for the French BELIEF
: that German decline Is already actual, IN
: numbers. But this whole question Is very
!. fairly debatable, and have endeavored to
. set forth what Is at best theory, only To
, be proven, if at all, by subsequent events.
AS I close this article two interesting
details come 10 hand. First from British
sources wholly trustworthy learn that
the official British estimate Of the monthly
permanent German wastage has been
raised TO 100000, which brings it within
!. 10000 Of the French. Secondly, Mr.. HI
e laire Belloc, the most interesting and best
/ known of British military writers, In re-
cent article asserts that the French Off
cial figure for the maximum of German,
and, for that matter, French, strength has
Q been raised to twelve instead of ten per
t cent of the total population, which would
i. make the German resources 5000 900 Ans
the French 100000, respectively. In
u stead Of 675O,OOO and 100000. This
;, modification is based upon the prolonga-
" ton of the war into second year, which
q brings a new class Of conscripts into tho
: field who we're too young in 1914.
. These changes do not affect the main
, question, except as they postpone tho