New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1915-04-02

tegic railroads, h.. liveiier intelligence,
strikes ten times to the Russians once;
he pokes the giant here; he jabs him
there; he is away before the giant can
coupler. The Armada affair is, per-
haps, not a good comparison. Rather, it
is like clever middleweight fighting
an iron heavyweight. He dances about
his slower opponent; he lands blow after
blow; he does not land the knock II
punch. II this keeps up long enough
the middleweight wears himself out and
loses. Again, he sometimes finds an
opening to the jaw, and drops his man.
That is the picture we get from those
who have been in The trenches of both
sides. Germany strikes hard, here and
there. She never seems to strike hard
enough to accomplish her objective.
And always the Russian CO -es back
like the sea against the man with a
broom-an irresistible force Of nature.
What most strategists pro .Jhesied at
the beginning of the war seerr8 to be
proving true: Germany canno. invade
Russia very far, nor Russia G. 'rmany."
1t seems unlikely that tncr the
western Allies or the Russians will
ever get through that grea fortress
which is Germany to Berlin II either
is to do it, the western Allies seem the
moro likely. And their chance seems
very slim.
Austria Likely to Get Mauling.
Austra-Hungary is different. That
divided empire is perhaps holding to-
gether even less strongly thon shows
on paper. 1t seems possible that Aus
tria may be badly mauled next sum
mer. That, together with the posi-
bilty that the Allies may ro>t the
Germans out Of Belgium, Offers the
main hope of peace before snow flies"
Germany, with her borders all be,
sieged and her ally gone, might offer
compromises which the Allies would
accept. 1t seems unlikely now that
Germany will be starved ont or will
run fatally short on copper before 3
year from this spring. Even the mos
optimistic Englishmen are coming &c
| admit that. The reduction of the food
supply and the shortage of copper are
regarded by the judcious as merely
irritations which will help brsak down
German powers of resistance
In the problem of Austria the ques-
/ ton of those obscure doings in the
Dardanelles looms large. Should the
Allies force the Dardanelles, Rumania
is expected to join in, furnishing not
only good little army but an open
passage to Austria's back door. Some
how there seems less general expecta-
ton of Italy taking hand. Yet she
may, even before this goes to print.
Large detachments of British troops
have disappeared somewhere into the
Fer East. and certain we'll informed
Englishmen believe that the Turk is not
so great a problem, after all. This
they point out, is paradoXically the war
of the highly civilized.
Half-barbaric tro.ps, such as the
Turcos and the Hindus, do not stand
heavy trench fighting, with its drafts
on the nervous system, nearly so well
as Germans, Frenchmen and English
men. In open work these barbarians
are superb; in close grips, nothing
The civilized man, 1t appears, has
learned to resist nervous shocks; the
barbarian has not. The Turk, splendid
fighter though he was in old wars, may
not endure this war so well when the
work gets close.
War May End Before Winter.
These are the main factors. Count out
any possibility that the Allies will reach
Berlin this summer. Give that the
Allies overrun Austria and reclaim Bel
GUM together-perhaps Alsace-
Lorraine, an. the war may end before
snow f.es. Give that they fail, and we
may see long siege of Germany, with
half-century of civilization destroyed
every month.
And, of course, Germany may, in that
event., hold her present borders so
sturdlly that the rest Of the world will
stop for sheer WEAKNESS, leaving her
the moral victor.
Tn. :e are bizarre and unexpected
possibilities, too Denmark or Holland
.lay furnish the Allies a side door into
Germany. However, that does lot seem
Iikely-not with the consent CT coop
Grafton OF Denmark or Holland. They
have their feelings, which are now
pretty much pro-Ally. But they have
seen Belgium devastated; they know
what war does to little nations.
FINALLY, suppose either side develops
genius! 1t is new warfare; old rules
do not hold; some man may come along
TO discover new rules which do hold.
/ as Napoleon discovered the value of
concentrated attack and Of massed
artillery. Such genius would win,
suppose, for either side-a short war
for the Allies, a long, painful one for
Germany
find have been writing quite cal
lously of chances and eventualities, as
/ though this thing were mere commerce.
But do not forget that when talk of the
Allies breaking the German line, am
talking Of a half-million casualties on
the allied side alone-a hundred tho l.
sand OF them dead, as many more