New-York tribune., 1915-12-18

order and rebellion in the conquered ter'l-
tory they are obliged to maintain large
garrisons. Many hundreds of thousanos
f men are thus occupied behind the battle
line. Most of them are probably UNITED
for active campaigning, but some of them
are good troops. and a. the war progresses
the standards are being rapidly lowered.
In addition it is necessary for the Ger
mans to keep troops in the field IN the
balkans to assure their Turkish and Bul-
gar allies of their support. 1t viii not do
TO leave Bulgaria 10 bear the whole burden
Il meeting the Allied armies in Macedonia
and Greece. If the Bulgarans should fa.i
CT wear out, when the Allies were aole %
advance would not Greek sentiment com
pei a reluctant king to enlist? Bulgaria,
getting weary of the blood tax. might make
her own peace. with much of her gain as
sured.
The main thing from the Allied point o.
view is to multiply the points Of friction
for the Germans. because the German
numbers are necessarily inferior to thos'
Of their opponents and their reserves far
less numerous. Some time It is likely tina.
what happened in SPAN will happen IN
the Balkans, and the Kaiser will have to
call back his Balkan masses TO help him IN
an offensive in Russia or defensive N
France. When this happens it will re-
lease the Allied army at Salonica and
there will be an instant decline in German
prestige in the Balkans.
The chief concern for the Germans is to
drive the Allies out Of the Balkans alto
eether. If they take Salonica there is no
point at which the Allies can make n
really dangerous landing, because Of the
character of the country. Salonica is the
gateway to the Balkans and the one har
Dor that offers base for large fleets and
has any measure of docking facilities. 1t
is the centre of the three great railroads.
too, which must play an important part IN
any future Allied advance. If the Allies
are driven out, then Greek territory can
he evacuated, Bulgaria can garrison Ser
ba and some hundreds of thousands Of
Germans and Austrians will be released
Tor service elsewhere.
The whole military faith of the Allies is
in the belief that the German
resources in men and money are begin
ming to fail, and that in some months it is
going to be difficult for the Germans to
find numbers sufficient to hold all the
fronts. Then the German wave will begin
to recede as did the Napoleonic after Mos
COW. Superior numbers will tell the story,
and a recession at any point will release
subject populations, for Germany is now
ir side hostile boundaries on all sides. Bel
gium, Poland, Serbia will rise to any Ger
man withdrawal, as did Spain and Prussia
4 century ago. Greece and Rumania will
probably enlist, if German defeat seems TO
lie assured by any considerable retrograde
In the present phase of the Great War
il is essential to recall the Napoleonic par
alels because Germany seems now, so far
as any one can judge, quite in the position
cf France when the Emperor had won his
greatest triumphs and was already begin
ming to suffer from the gradual decline in
the material of his armies and France was
slowly beginning to manifest a WEAKNESS
Of war which no field glory could quite
satisfy. This is what makes the Salonica
episode of utmost interest to the whole
world With all the failure OF the Allies
in this field up to the present moment
there is nothing that makes their position
more desperate than that of the British
in Portugal in 1909 and 1910. and there is
much in Europe that suggests that they
may yet be able to repeat the exploits of
Wellington, if they find another Yelling
ton and succeed in holding on at Salonica.
n