The Washington herald. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1906-1939, 1915-06-07
CRITICAL Time
OF WAR BEGINS
Belloc Discusses Men Whom
Teutons May Rely Upon
as Last Defense.
KAISER HAS HANDS FULL
Germany Putting Her Last Reserves
in the Field-Playing for
High Stakes.
KAISER HAS HANDS FULL
Nv HILAIRE BELLOC.

The present week is the beginning
OF that critical period in the war in
dictated as due in the late spring or
early summer.
Briefly, the last reserve Of the en-
envy are beginning to appear In the
field. He II undertaking his last Of
fensivc Though no longer with supe-
riOr numbersD In the west.
Under the momentum of that Of
fensive he has achieved three local
successes of very different values.
none of which has as yet any decisive
characi The two lesser ones, in
the Vosges and in the Woevre. we may
neglect for the moment. His offensive
in Flanders, around Ypres. is upon an
, other scale.
In order to comprehend this often
sive. which he has just undertaken.
and undoubtedly intends to maintain
tat great expense to HIMSELF let US
recapitulate certain main elements.
2,5OO.OOO Men to Call.
In the German empire alone (ex-
GLIDING Austro- Hungary we esrs-
mated some two and a half million at
most, probab bly, more like two million
men really available for fighting. over
and beyond the numbers of trained or
partially trained men which the en-
pire could put into the field in the
first two months of the war-say by
October Is.
Surprising this estimate to he accu-
rate within its rough limits. we note
that the German empire has maxi
mum training capacity or some soc, osv
men. II was TO be presumed. there
fore. that. generally speaking. the
forces Of the German empire during
the war would pass through a sort of
rb VI br,i Mt ipis
the losses of the first stage, swelling
again when the earliest of the newly
trained patches arrived. diminishrns
again by further losses and then
swelling again "a further batch of
newly trained men came Inland so
on.
Now il we admit 10000 as the max
imum figure of men which Germany
can train at any moment, and If we
compare this with. say, 100000. it
was to he expected that in the course
of the war three principal accessions
of strength would he apparent in the
forces of the German empire alone. ex-
elusive of those of its ally. Upon the
appearance of the third of these ac-
cessions of strength the last effort of
the enemy would have been launched
and no more was to follow
Last Accession Is Made.
1t is evident that we are now enter
ing this period of the third and last
accession of strength to the enemy
How he is using this last reserve we
cannot yet tell. Much of it must al
ready have been drafted in to ill gaps
much of it may be on the Hungarian
side. Perhaps he is planning another
stroke in North Poland. when the finer
weather has dried up the mud.
But of one thing we can he certain.
he is using very considerable portion
of his new strength in Flanders and
upon other points on the western
front. And that is the explanation OF
all the news that we have been re-
ceiving during the last few days and
that we shall continue TO receive for
some time to come. including a very
possible stroke south of Lille.
Upon the analogy of what the Ger
manic force did in the past we may
expect repeated attacks in close for
nation and losses far superior to those
of the defense. Whether We may ex-
peCt the final failure of these blows
and the secure resistance of the line
against which they are directed only
the future can show. but if this issue
is achieved then we can confidently
predict that decline following upon it
will be very dampening.
Play for High stakes.
The enemy cannot but play now for
high stakes. and attempt at a very
great expense of men. to obtain Condi
tions as favorable as possible upon
which to conclude what he calls an
honorable peace-that is. a draw.
But by the very use OF this method
he will, II he fails to achieve his oh
iect, ind himself in much worse
position after that failure than before.