Honolulu star-bulletin. [volume] (Honolulu [Oahu, Hawaii]) 1912-2010, 1915-10-18
Prof. Jaggar Hopes TO Have
Photographers Ready to
Get Complete Records

ent eruptive period Of Mauna Loa will
probably occur in December, 1917, or
January or February of 1918. is the
! forecast made in the current issue of
the Scientific American Supplement
by Professor T. A, Jaggar, Jr., who
contributes a magnificently illustrated
article On Notes from a Volcano
Laboratory, Personal Documents in
the Case of Kilauea and Mauna Loa "
Professor Jagg9r. who is In charge
OF the observatory at Kilauea. bases
his prophecy on the result of exhaust
i've personal Investigations at Kilauea
and Mauna Loa,
Concerning the probable date Of
Mauna Loa's final outbreak, Mr.. Jag.
gars article says:
The escape OF the liquid lava after
many months OF temporary repose
which We are now living through, will
begin with more fountains at the sum.
nit, and with slight earthquake pre-
lude to warn US.
Wants Photographers. Ready.
We ought to be able to have photo
graphers ready to make pictures, OF
the fountains at their highest. A prob
able time for this outbreak is about
December, 1917, when the summit win
become cold and snowy, but 1t may
come sooner. The next stage win be
a lava sfowssfrom' - lower vent, prob
ably six or eight miles to the north.
east OF the Summit crater. A second.
airy camp should Pbe established in
this letghborhood.
Other excerpts from the Jaggar ar.
ticle follow:
-. AFTER the Mauna Loa outflow OF
1887 there was revival and vigorous
activity of Kilauea q, eliminating IN
1894, n During this, time Mauna SLoa
was quiet. Kilanea lava subsidized and
disappeared. after. 1894, and MaIna
Loa revived .inf1S96 and poured out
lava from the Dewey crater in. 1899,
ktlanea showed. little life but at q
very, low level in 1900 to 1902 and
Mauna Loa rema med quiet. Mauna
Loa became active in 1903 with out
fow In 1907 and sKiIapea !, remained
quiet. Kilauea revived rapidly after
the Mauna Loa fow of 1907, rose to.
its highest; level three years later il
1910, remained high for. the three
years 1910 to 1912 and sank slowly as
shown by our, diagrams from 1912 to.
1914 During all this time Manna Loa
rem Sined quiet. In 1914 Mauna, Loa
revived, and at present, 1915, Kilauea
= snbsidingt to what end remains to be.
seen. !. @.. 80, = :, d -. ''7EI
Stress Acts as Trigger. ., 49,, -, !. p y
The sequence of events suggests a
more tor. less periodic eriiption .of
Mauna Lpa about once. In. ten years
and Kilauea activity during the. reposs
periods Of MalIna Loa. These ten.ycaf1
periods are proba bly, controlled by In.
huences of lava accumulat ton. and re-.
lease rather than BY any tidal strains
II may well hes lloWeyef, that In the
critical time OF approach 70 the end Of
q fspose period that an exceptionaiI
tidal stress on the crust of the earth
VII " sct az q trigger ITO release an
4 Summarizing the six, stages Of a
typical volcanic eruption. they may, be
briefly expressed as "a earthquake
stress, III gas foam explosion, ia
gas release, % liquid release, J5l
solidiacation, and a(6) new accurntiIa.
ton. Mauna Loa, in 1914 illustrated
the end sof, a period of accumulation
40 i and a year of earthquake stress
ID initiating gas-laYa foaming t2) in
Moknaweoweo. the summit crater, No
Vember rs, 1914, and gas release f3l
took place through the summit orfices
throughout December. and January and !
probably continues at..the present
time tsprfng, 1916, with subsistence
for the time being of the lava froth.
Lasted 9TWehty Days. -
mat the appfoacRs to the solsfice |
tDecember 81, and the eafthB near
est approach to The sun tpefihelion)
about The same season induced effec-
tive STRESSES touching on the accumu- |
lated strain Is probable. For III No
vember there were sixty local earth
qua.kes, at the end OF. the month the |
summit fountains broke out, and this |
activity endured until twenty days aft.
er the solstice, when the glow and |
fumes died away.
There remain yet to come I'm the |
present eruption, Of Mauna Loa stages |
4, and 6; namely, the escape OF |
liquid lava, its, qualification, and the |
HS6LhhluS vi q new E6p0SSS pSflOu' py |
this analysis, it should be plain that :
Mauna Loa is now active and must be |
so regarded until the laYa flow comes.
Preparatory Work Done.
ut VIM be profitable to review what
the Hawaiian volcano observatory has
done in preparing for and observing
this eruption of Mauna Loa. The stud |
les of men of science who have come ,
to Hawaii from a distance. Dana,
DAILY, Brun, Perret, Day !
and Shepherd, and the work OF, Brig
ham and Hitchcock, resident here, |
have thrown new light on sequences,
intervals and the meaning of volcanic
gases, and these things are the basis
of the deductions outlined in this lee
ture. Four of these workers have CO.
operated with observatory The staff
OF the observatory has made continu,
Gus records of the processes of XII /
lauea, and has visited the summit GRAFT
er Of Mauna Loa at least once a year
Jagaar's Predictions.
From these records have worked |