The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1915-02-08
Pre.,nt Pohtien Of stock.

In asking what are the probable stock
market features OF the next month or
two II Ia TO be noted that both custom
and tradition. as we'll as the present
unusual circums; ances. favor the likeli-
hood OF reaction in quoted values. accom-
panied by more or less bad news going
to Indicate that general business recov-
cry from the inertia OF profound depres-
sion is progressing very slowly. Febru-
sry Is apt in such a situation as exists
now. to be marked nv good deal NJ
mortality among crippled business con-
Germs and. quite apart from traditional
and ordinary sequelS to such events az
those with which the world has been
troubled since last July. IT Is quite likely
that nearby Developments In the war will
prove disturbing.
What wall street would call a long
range bullishness. a belief that II the
country liz not drawn into the war the
tendencies OF volumes and values in the
United States will be toward expansion
during the war and afterward. y justi-
fled. This country is the richest In the
world and the foundations OF It's eco
monte institutions are strong. Economic
forces have been set loose by the war
which are operating to our advantage in
the sequel OF the great defiation through
which We have been passing, and In coin
cldence with the highly constructive fac
tor OF our new banking system, which
enables us to make an unprecedented
use OF our capital resources for domestic
and foreign commercial needs. Never
theless. II is not incompatible with the
maintenance OF forward looking views
of an optimistic character TO recognize
that we may be in an interval OF I'M
settlement.
Wall Street, and particularly the Wall
Street stock market, deserves to he caro-
fully regarded for the interpretations
10 which stock market phenomena lend
themselves at this juncture. II IT should
turn out that antcipations OF general
business betterment were somewhat pre-
mature II Will not follow that Wall
Street was wrong in It's December and
January notions about the ultimate out
look for values. Moreover the stock
market OF the last few months was an
effect Of constructive impulses derived
from the restoration OF equilibrium In
the money market and In foreign ex-
change and from the many readJust-
ments 10 war conditions which have sup
piled evidence that the war spells eco
monte opportunity for the United States
Reaction, setback and decline in Wall
Street can go no further than actual
conditions warrant. and nowhere else
will IL be $50 quickly manifested when
conditions warrant a resumption OF the
processes OF recovery.
In the long run tho financial mar
kets and general business tend TO repeat
seasonal phenomena. There is always
a good deal OF movement IN recurrent
; cycles and just now a number OF In
fiucnces operating to the same result arc
converFinR on Wall street. This ls not
only February, when reaction Is almost
the regular thing but II is February In
a post-panic period when analogy
would lead one to look for a reflection
OF business depression. Furthermore
the European war Is entering a stage
where the pressure OF its economic strair
must tell AZ least indirectly, even though
only temporarily. on the most favorably
situated OF neutral countries.