New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1915-04-11
By FRANK KOESTER.


war that no matter which country or
group Of countries might win the win
ming country would inevitably suffer losses in
trade, commerce and industry vastly greater
than could be compensated by victories in the
field, however farreaching or brilliant. The
prospect of such losses, it was freely asserted
would forever prevent war.
That prophecy was quickly proved fallacious
when the hour struck, demonstrating that ma
tons still set liberty above affluence and pre-
fer deficits to dishonor.
While it is undoubtedly true that the cost
of the war in commercial and industrial losses
will far exceed any immediate material gains
70 the victor, it must be remembered that the
amortization of its effects is not properly
chargeable to the present decade or even TO
the present generation, but that the rear
rangement of boundaries and interests that
will result upon the fortunes of the armies in
the field will perhaps endure for centuries,
and certainly for generations, if this is not to
prove an indecisive war, with peace but an
armistice for later operation.
GERMAN WAR LOSSES ARE MERELY
INVESTMENT OF CAPITAL.
Assuming that the victoTs gain advantages
which they will enjoy for century, the total
of such advantage will be found so vastly
greater than the temporary losses Of the war
that its present cost may be regarded only as
an investment of modicum of capital.
The modern war custom of huge indemni-
ties, while it may reimburse the victor for
the cost of military operations, admittedly
cannot compensate for the commercial and in
dustrial losses sustained 1t is when victory,
however, brings additional territory that the
national ACKNOWLEDGMENT amply compensates
for the financial losses Stretches OF useful
territory especially in Europe, are limited in
extent. When once occupied their wealth for
generations at least adheres TO the victor, so
that the question of territory is of far more
Importance than the question of indemnity,
and gained territory will and does compensate
the victor
The statistcian, figuring the cost Of wars,
as a rule reckons insuficiently the value OF
the territorial gains, and where such gains are
of any considerable extent but few wars will
be found too high priced
WAR is GOOD BUSINESS-DEAD MEN
FOR NEW TERRITORY.
If Germany succeeds in retaining Belgium
a strip of France and section of Russia she
will be we'll repaid, for the financial balance
sheet will in time show a profit, and the real
exchange, being blood for earth, Is one she
can we'll afford, for in men she is inexhausti-
bly, rich.
At most, the losses of the war will hardly
exceed the current birthrate. She will be
merely standing still numerically to expand
geographically, which in turn means more
elbow room for numerical expansion later on.
On economic grounds, therefore it becomes
\ evident that the arbitrament of war has its
d Qualifications, irrespective of its moral and ethi-
cal factors. That is to say, war is good bust
ness for the winner.
For the loser, OF course, 1t is bad business,
and its effects are often such as to bankrupt
a nation for several generations if not to re-
duce it permanently to an inferior position
The impression prevails among Americans
that Germany will be the loser in this war.
The fact that the drive against Paris was
checked and that six months have passed
with Warsaw still unreached, and the assump-
ton that financial exhaustion, if not physical
starvation, will force a cessation of hostilites
and the captulation of Germany and Austria,
lead the average American to suppose that
Germany has played her last card and that
the end is only a matter of time.
ALL DEMONSTRATIONS POINT ONE
WAY.
To any one, however, familiar with the re-
sources of Germany the falsity of this as
sumption is obvious. After more than half
year OF war, German soil is practically
touched, while large areas of the enemies
territories arc oVegrun. Assuming even that
Che fortunes of war 60 against the Germans,
and that they are forced out of France, Bel
GUM and Russia, the most optimistic OF the
Allies sympathizers can hardly expect it I'M
Ill after a year of war has passed. Relative
conditions would then be more favorable TO
the Germans than at the beginning OF the
war. for the territory fought over would be
ruined.
II would then take az least year, with
Germany on the defensive, for the Allies to
penetrate as far into Germany as Germany
has driven into their territory.
Thus, il will require at least two years o.
war for the Allies TO overcome initial Ger
man successes ard gain a parity with her,
even assuming that the German military