The Washington times., 1915-02-28
Wheat Is Due to Go Higher
When World War Is, Over
Europe Can Produce Some
Grain Despite Fighting, But
Not Nearly Enough.

'" 0' SSOHSS s0VUs0, SSs
Not Nearly Enough.
producing regions. have been drawn
sdidierS ana al thaRap tsis Sii, sece their
capacity TO produce grain.
Europe actually has been steadily
producing more than half OF the
worlds wheat.
Has to.Import Much.
But, despite this. Europe does not
nearly produce enough for it's needs.
During this same period its average
els. and every European state except
Russia and the Balkan principalities
has long been a regular importer.
We begin now to get pretty defin-
lite grip Of the reasons why 1t Is GER
tain that a long period Of high prices
for wheat is ahead Of US. The coun-
tries now actually at war have been
40 per 81 the
It will he utterly Impossible for them
period thereafter to produce anything
place this deficit must be made up.
Europe. normally both the greatest
producer. and the greatest importer
greater importer than ever during the
war: II all the countries now at war
produce two-thirds as much as their
about 100000. 900 bushels a year in
Europe,s supply. whereas the normal
deficit 81, has been only $4,000. 900:
production OF the United states. with
which to feed the lighting armies and
powers?
Whence it Must Come.
In chief. II must come from the recog-
nized wheat exporting countries of the
world-the United States at the top OF the
list, then Canada, the Argentine. Aus
tralia and India. OF these the United
states is much the largest producer and
the largest~exporter Yet so immense Is
the European demand to be that II tho
other exporting countries were left out
Of the calculation the United States
would have nearly to double Its crop to
supply Europe's needs.
The British board of trade has made
a compilation dealing with the price
Of wheat In Great Britain from III
down to date. During that entire time
seas 80 completely that nothing like ex-
ceptional prices have been prevalent
owing to any shutting cfr OF foreign i'm
portat!ons
This British study shows that price
fluctuations have generally been small
and slow during periods OF prolonged
peace. and during such periods the
prices have been relatively low.
1t shows that in times OF war price
treme. and that on the whole very high
levels nave been maintained.
II shows that In times Of the great
o. Dola. h~
OF prices ordinarily has not been re-
stored for long time after the end
of the war
belliserent condition. England and
France went to war in 1903, at which
time Prussia was under the domina-
9f f. a"s ssIsnS e. cassd
and prices Immediately went up.
After the overthrow OF Prussia in the
battle of Jena the price Of wheat fell
once more. In lss began the PENN
mounted rapidly. reaching $50 in 1872.
Then came Napoleon's Inflated expe-
dition against Russia following the
fSapfS fell st Tsfh hs tn The prfs resrn of of @
pol"on from Elba and his last cam
paign ending at Waterloo was all so
sudden that its most important effect
upon prices was not felt until after the
y
after Napoleon had been sent away to
st. Helena the price of wheat in Great
Britain had dropped back to the normal
figure. about 81. 30. which had been the
price at the beginning of the long strug-
gle between Britain and the conQueror.
During the Civil War.
a study of the price OF wheat in the
United states during our own civil war
develops some curously interesting
facts. For five years. 1861 to 1855, In
elusive. the average yearly price OF
wheat in Chicago was for each year in
cents. 70. IS. 60. "A. and 72. That Is to
say. the price of wheat in 1868. and
again i'm 1865. was lower than when the
war began. and 1t was never during
any considerable period Of the war ex-
Cessive.
1t was not until after the war that
effects began to be felt. The prices /
am quoting are all given on the basis
of gold. deprecated currency being re-
duced to that basis. In 1855 the aver
age Chicago price of wheat went higher
than at any time during the war being
"a cents. The next year 1t jumped to
sl.45. in 1865 it was Sle3, and in 1869 it
fell back to 81 cents.
Then came another war. the struggle
Of ls1o-lsli. between France and Ger
many. This war lasted less than a
year, but it again demonstrated that
the extreme erect or war on wheat
prices Is likely to come after the con-
clusion Of hostilities. Thus. In 1870. the
average Chicago price of wheat was
only 81 cents and In 1871 only Sl.d Then,
after the war was comfortably out of
the way 9, the !, price s,. averaged Sill in
1t was particularly fortunate for the
world that in 1914 the United States.
pra ctically alone among the nations.
produced an extraordinarily large wheat
crop. Moreover. in addition to the
nearly !N0,0O0O0O bushels produced in
this country, we carried over from the
1919 crop about 70. 10000 bushels. maxi
ing a total available supply Of S67 .G0QO 900.
What u. S. Can Share.
The normal domestic consumption of
wheat in the United States is now about
5oO. .OOO.N0 bushels. to which must be
added 70. .O00. coo required for seeding. 1t
is therefore necessary for this country
to provide a total Of 61O, 000, 900 bushels
before it has any surplus to export. On
this basis the Agricultural Department
calculates that our available surplus Tor
export in 1914 was 357, O,O0O bushels
and that OF this 2l0,000000 bushels had
been exported by January 80, 1915
on this basis there was the begin
ming of February a total remaining eX-
portable surplus of lF,000.OOo bushels.