The Birmingham age-herald., 1915-01-01
BIRMINGHAM TRUST
 MONTHLY LETTER 0N
 TRADE CONDITIONS.
Business Is Convalescent. Freight Rate Advance Will Have Beneficial Effect.
 Pig Iron Production

l The monthly business review of the Birmingham Trust and Savings company. issued yesterday. under date of December P, is as follows:
 Tn attempting to review the business or the recent past and the making of a
 statement outlining the present funda- mental condition of the country commer- cially. We are compelled to borrow a
 word from the sick-room in order to con- vey clear impression of the present situation-business Is convalescing The improvement is clear and positive but business Is still weak in spots and still demands nursing There is no danger of a relapse unless someone gets so enthu- siastic as to try to start a real boom Such a move would unquestiona re- suit in disaster.
 Out floating debt to Europe at the time the war began has been variously estimated at from s250O 900 to s4O00oo,- . GOO. This did not take into account what might have been owing to us from those countries in which moratoriums were de- clared. Since the beginning of the war our net shipments of gold and merchan- disc have created foreign credit to our account of something over $2oO O00, 600 up to December l. Our cotton exports are increasing and it is quite safe to assume that when the balance is struck at mid night on December sl, 1914. this country will have no floating debt to other na- tions, which means that 1t will owe no more in trade balances than are owing to It. All then must pay their debit halances in gold or exchange credit slips with each other and wash the slate. Our November exports amounted to s206. 6.o0o0o0, compared with sl95, O,0OO in October and $246 o0o.OOo year ago. The falling off in exports of s4O,000 600 con- pared with last November was due to the decline of sn,00O,000 in cotton exports alone, showing that our exports, except cotton, gained nearly s32, 900 over last November. Our imports were $126, GOO, 600. compared with sl3s. .0O0.000 in October and S14S, ,00o,0 900 in November of last year. Our favorable trade balance for November was $79,000,000 compared with $56000.OO0 in October and $97.O00.00o in November of last year.
 Bank exchanges for November totaled $11 .0O0, 100000, compared with $14,OOO, ,0O0,- 900 year ago. The decrease in New York was nearly g per cent and for the remainder of the country 10 per cent.
 Interest Disbursements
 Dividend and interest disbursements for December will amount to nearly $101.- 00O,000 compared with $94, ,000,0OO last year. Forty-five million dollars of this will be dividends, compared with s42, ,O0O, GOO a year ago and s56,O00.O00 will be interest com pared with s520O0,0O0 last year This is the first month since August that we have been able to report dividends in excess of the same month last year. Divi- dends and interest for the coming year will probably exceed s1. 400, coo. 900. and this, together with maturities of over $500, ,OOO,- o00 calls for financing, refunding and cash payments of $200,000.000 for each month of 1915 As the larger part of this is railroad business, the business year 1915 will lean heavily upon railroad con- ditons.
 "The eastern freight rate advance re- gently allowed by the interstate com merce commission, while important in it. self. assumes much greater importance in it's evidence to the world that the needs of the railroads are receiving full attention at the hands of the commission. It Is believed that the denial of the peti- ton of the eastern roads for an increase would have meant additional railroad re- ceiverships which would have brought other business disasters in their wake. The effect of the decision is. therefore, far-reaching and even though. as esti- mated, the increased income to the roads themselves may only run from $30,0O0, GOO to $40.000,O00 annually, this comparatively modest sum added to the revenues of the railroads would mean an increase in the general business of the country of more than $1,00O,OO0 per day. The railroads will pay this money for labor and ma terials; in the end it all goes for labor and with 1t the laborer supplies his needs which means business in almost every line of human endeavor If any shipper feels that he is hit too hard by this rate increase, we suggest that 1t may prove cheaper for him than any other form of war tax because 1t is an investment which will immediately increase business. The commission did not decide that the railroads themselves deserved 1t but did decide that they needed 1t; it was patent that the country needed it and, while the railroads get it first, we all get our part of that $30000.000 or $4O,00o.000 finally. It is hoped that the request for an increase by the railroads in the Mississippi valley will be taken up immediately and dis posed of at an early date. It is of the utmost importance that the railroads know what their real incomes are to be in 1915 as their matur1t1eS alone total $60O, ,000000 without regard to dividends, interest or financing extensions, equip ment and other Improvements.
 Earnings of Railroads
 "Gross earnings of railroads for Oc- tober were $269 ,0OO.O0o, compared with $29S ,0O0O 900 a year ago. a falling off of 10 per cent, while net earnings were $SS,- o0,0O0, compared with $S60O0.000 a year ago, a decline of per cent. Although the southern group and the Pacific coast group showed the heaviest decline in gross, a considerable decline was record ed by all of the groups. The New Eng land group the eastern and middle group and the southwestern group all managed to show some gain in net. the gain by the New England group amounting to nearly per cent, the others being a , mere fraction.
 'The pig iron production for Novem- ber was 151S,0O0,00O tons. which is the low record for any month for five years. The thrilled tonnage of the Steel cor poration at the close of November was B. 325, ,0oo.o 900 tons. compared with 3,461 .0oo : 600 8 month ago and s96000.0oo a year ago. The mills of the corporation shipped at the rate of one-third of capacity dur | ing November. The railroad rate deci.