Macon beacon. [volume] (Macon, Miss.) 1859-1995, 1915-09-24
BY CLARENCE POE, Editor The
Progressive Farmer.

Progressive Farmer.
There is no doubt in most thought
full minds but that the South's cotton
crop is going to be worth $750,000, 900
to the men who own it next spring,
but it is worth only $500, 00O, 900 to
the producers at present prices-and
1t Is to save to southern growers and
to our southern country this extra
quarter of a billion dollars that the
united energies of press and people
should now be directed. The funda-
mental facts seem to m to be clear:
1. Cotton, even though the new
crop of 1915 has started coming on
the market, Is still selling on the basis
Of prices fixed by last years 17,ooo,-
00o-baIe crop.
2. These prices must soon be ad-
Justed, however, to fit the conditions
Of a 10000, ooo-baIe crop Tor probably
only q 100000 or 1900, ooo-bale
CROP, and this adjusted price ought
at the very least to reach II cents a
pound for mIdAIing.
AS briefly now, as clear argument
will permit, | wish to point out and
emphasize the truth OF these state
ments.
The Worlds Demands Justify Twelve
Cents.
Assuming even a 10000, 000.bale
yield of southern cotton, this year
land it will probably be less), this
years world production will be g.
OO0,0 900 bales short of the worlds con-
servatively estimated consumption
during the coming twelve months.
That Is to say, the world will con-
sumo every pound of this years crop
and 5000, 900 bales of the present
surplus.
Secretary Hester Of the New Or
leans Cotton exchange estimates last
years southern production (not the
commercial CROP at 17,004, 900 bales.
The United States government esti-
mate (16,134,930 plus 791,464 l~inters)
is 1926, ALPHABETICALLY 1900, 600
bales. This was over 1000, 900 bales in
excess Of the 1913 crop.
Now what happened with this
bumper $1,000, 0OO-bale crop in spite
Of all the demoralized conditions of
trade and finance-the crop Of which
It was said last fall we should not ex-
port 100000 bales? The facts are
that the world used so much Of it that
the total worlds visible supply of all
cotton in midsummer this year was
only 5,435,168 bales against 1892 76
bales a year before. In other words,
with a 1900, O00-bale southern crop
to handle, the worlds visible supply
increased only 100000 bales. What
is going to happen this year then,
with the South offering 100000 or
5000, 10000 bales less-and the produc-
ton Of other countries also decreased?
And this query brings me to another
point:
The Worlds Crop Prospects Justify
Twelve Cents.
Mr.. w. P. G. Harding of the fed.
eral reserve board early in the sum-
mer secured reports from consular
officials all over the world indicating
q total cut in the worlds cotton crop
this year of 5000, 900 bales, Egypt and
India reporting radical reductions in
acreage" Since that time the pros
poets have further declined.
But even II we accept this early
overestimate Of the srop We see that
II last years crop, being 5000, 900
bales bigger than this years, yet in
creased the surplus only 1000, 900
bales, then this years crop will
leave a 5000, 900 bale deficit-to be
drawn from the surplus.
The facts are, however, that even
a 10000, 900 bale estimate for the
South now seems too high. This Is
not simply my view, but the view of
many experts, including so conserva-
tive and competent an authority as
the New York Journal of Commerce,
which has just declared that, in view
of present conditions, "the yield
seems likely to be nearer 10000. coo
than r. 00,O 900 bales" And now
comes the Wall Street Journal itself,
quoting William S. Halliburton of
Daniel O'Dell & Co. as saying: The
current seasons crop may be as low
as 10, SOC, 900 bales. 1t is entirely
within the reach of present condi-
lions that we shall see 12k-cent cot
ton before the end of the season"
These two authorities base their