The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1915-01-17
Prof. Scligman of Columbia
Optimistic Concerning Con-
ditions After Struggle.
RESTORATION OF
POPULATION INCREASE
Gross EyaggeratiOn on I'll
Effects of Struggle on Agri-
culture and Industry.

* havoc and devastation wrought
i - by the present war will leave
Europe crippled and defaced
for generation.
And do not be alarmed lest the de-
porabls slaughter Of soldiers should
set back the normal population increase
. good third OF century. Do not look
for a Furplusage OF the female species
- an outcome OF the conflict
Such apprehensions are groundess.
according to Prof. Edwin r. A. Selis-
man Of the McviclSar chair OF political
economy at Columbia University. He
msds this very clear during an inter-
ssttng talk I had with him the other
morning at his home. Prof. Seligman
fairly seethes with statistics that ON
pnasze his contentious. And you find
yourself saying IT'S no wonder. as you
note the thousands OF volumes in his
study young municipal library in
no, with a gallery extending all about
NJ upper shelves. Hero are data, you
think, from the dawn Of recorded his
oGy, with enough figures and facts
about war lurking in the tones to
cnnctI Tho statements made.
Tho purpose OF the talk with Prof
sdrynan was to get his views as to
ne effects Of the present war upon
population. agriculture and industry
IL was assumed several times in the
interview that the war might last three
ycars and q good share OF the profess
s0rs conclusions were based upon tho
assumption that peace might date from
1915.
Undoubtedly the most surprising
ming said by the professor was with
respect to tho restore alton 0t ths nor
mai population increase after a great
war, and the rebalancing of the sexes.
said Mr.. Seligman:
Just as soon as the war ends il may
no expected that an unusual percentage
- male children will be born. / cannot
,ell YOU the reason and don't believe
there is a man who can. Analysis OF sta
'.stIcs points to such a conclusion, but
It is uneXplainable. 1t verges on the
occult, II You try 20 discuss e to
satisfactory conclusion you find you
have entered the domain OF medicine
and psychology, with the danger of los
ing yourself in a labyrinth OF surm!se
and deduction.
There are people, no doubt, who
would say that an all wise Providence
oranges its compensations this way for
The benefit OF humanity. This is a faith
theory not conclusive TO many. At any
rate you may safely take It for granted
that the depopulation or rather the kill
ing Off OF great numbers OF males in
the nations of England. France, Ger
many. Austria and Russia during tho
present war will bring about an imme-
diate increase in male child bearing in
these countries. The sex balance will
soon be regained.
Now we have no statistics in the way
OF published compilations showing as an
observed fact that the male birth rate
Is greater than the female birth rate
suer war. But We have statistics that
indicate II. My statements TO you are
conclusions drawn from an analysis OF
these positive statistics which inferen-
TALLY prove the fact. Thus:
First. Statistics show that under all
aormal conditions there are moro males
born than females.
Second. Statistics show that tho
birth rate OF a country positively in
creases after a war.
therefore, II a birth rate positively
increases after a war. and IL the normal
o'rtn rate always shows more males
man females, II follows that more males
than usual will be born after a war.
According to Sadler's theory the un-
doubted fact of a general normal ex-
cess or males at birth is duo to some
connection with the age OF the father.
"anllng the theory and the known rise
VI the after war birth rate We reach
une conclusion OF an increase In the
p'rth OF males following such war"
AZ soon as | grasped this strange fact
asked the professor about the outlook
s 10 regalning the normal increase OF
population, aside from the balancing OF
mo sexes That is, admitting that more
male babies than female babies were
porn after the war, how long would It
he'ore the total number of births of
"fh eeNes would equal rhe usual per-
~n'ase OF increase before the war?
lou think because SO many men were
inc front and so many men were
NH'ed. That OF necessity there must be
considerably less child bearing?" the
professor returned. well, you are
Wo7E. Statistics snow that nations
nave not suffered much this way because
VI war, Let us not say that this in
yes an Interpretation affecting morals.
Iet us conilne ourselves to the figures
Of the past
fhev show facts 49, to substa initial
T,PuIaiion increase regardless Of war
no" 10 comes about leads along an
W''i road OF investigation which We
NOT travelling, But you may rest
assured that at tho close Of the present
VAT and for tho years Immediately
'NfVard, the birth rate will not he
"y nouceably lowered, provided