The Washington herald., 1915-10-10
German Submarine Losses Are
Exaggerated, Figures Show
Number Of Merchant Ships Sunk Has Not Decreased to Date
in Spite Of Vigilance Of Allied Patrols
Not Serious, However,

| submarines arc just as good as the Ger
man submarines. and some of them were
| possibly built by Krupp. At any rate 1t
| would be folly for Germany to take the
enormous risk of sending submarines
through the Bay of Biscay and the
Straits Of Gibraltar when she could send
| crews to Pola and take out the per-
| fectly good Austrian submarines waiting
there. 1t is reasonably safe to assume,
| therefore. that all reported submarine
| operations in the Mediterranean have
reference to Austrian or-if there be such
a thing-Turkish submarines.
Nothing has been said of any sub
marines that Germany might have laid
| down since the commencement of the
war. At the time the so-called war zone
was declared by Germany it was re-
ported by one of our consular agents
In that country that work had been
stopped on all warships in the German
navy yards and that not a rivet was be-
| ing driven except in the building of new
submarines with which the German
naval authorities had concluded they
could accomplish their purpose Of starv-
ing Britain into submission. 1t is not
at all unlikely that this story Is true
to the extent that once Germany COM
mitted herself to the submarine warfare
on merchant vessels she bent all her
marines.
1t is not at all likely that these new
U-boats were laid down at the beginning
of the war. The navy yards then were
otherwise occupied and the submarine
was to some extent on trial. On the
other hand it Is not probable that Ger
many waited until February IS before
deciding that her only hope Of striking
an effective blow at sea was by the big
gest possible increase in her submarine
feet. II We fix the date of the beginning
of new construction at November l to
December 1 we probably shall not be so
very far astray.
More Submarines to Come.
How long does it take to complete one
of these U-boats? Judging from the long
list of bids recently submitted to the
naval authorities there it would take
from tweLty-one to twenty-three months
to build them. 1t is not likely that the
German ship yards can turn them out
in less than fifteen months. working at
top pressure. German machine shops
are making a great many other things
that the German army is in vital need
Of and which would not be laid aside to
make room for submarine machinery. If
we allow fifteen months for their con-
struction the first Of these new boats
will not be delivered until the first of
February next. assuming II was laid
down last November. How many will be
turned out at that time?
How many was it possible for Ger
many to lay down at once, assuming
that all possible sources were tapped?
That is hard question to answer. OF !
slips upon which submarines could be !
built Germany has hundreds possibly. |
but the question is how many firms |
are there in Germany equipped for |
building submarine machinery? In the !
United States six firms have supplied |
bids for the construction Of subma-
rines- Germany must have at least !
that many yards capable of doing the |
work. 1t is not at all impossible that |,
after February next the German navy |
VIII commission ten submarines every |
month for at least six months. The
number may be greatly in excess Of
that. 1t is mere guesswork. There
are those who profess to see in the re-
cent n-Hollweg-Tirpitz con-
troVersy not merely a solution of the
question as to whether Germany
should bow to the United States, but
the far greater question of whether
the submarine game is worth the can
die. II that is the case and there
has been victory for the anti-subma-
rine party then it is quite probable
that any feverish activity that may
recently have manifested itself in the
German shipbuilding yards will now be
diverted to other more profitable
sources. If not then by February
next. II the war is still I'm evidence at
that time. there will be an access Of
vitality to the submarine campaign
mat may astonish the world.
Meanwhile the submarine is. as Capt.
fers1us. the German naval critic. ad-
hits' failure as a commerce Destroy
er. Ii the present average is kept up
me U-boats will at the end of a year
nave accounted for just about 1,000.-
10 tons of shipping. 1t sounds an
enormous total. but It is just one
.wentieth Of the tonnage of the Brit
sh merchant marine alone and about
'ne- -thirty-fifth Of the tonnage that is
'iying to and from the pcrts of the
lIied nations. The loss is. of course.
mmense--perhaps $200.000.000 in I
ear, ana 1t is loss not merely to the
.hies out to the world. But II Is q loss .
mat gives Germany no military advan- !
age. And In the final reckoning 1t Is not
u all unlikely that her own ships may 3
'e seized to replace the ones she has de-
'troyed Therefore II will not be mat r
er OF surprise IL the submarine warfare
IN merchant ships should wane In the
next Few months rather than the reverse.
A famous italian regiment, the Noble
iuards. were drawn exclusively from the
aoman arfstocracy until about two years
go. AT that time the Pope sanctioned