The Birmingham age-herald., 1915-10-03
SEES DEFICIT OF
 MILLION BALES

William P. Redd of Birmingham. recognized authority on crops condi- tions, contributes the following article to the October number of the American Fertilizer, published in Philadelphia:
 of the 16, 750, ,000-bale crop of 1914, the report of the census bureau of August s1, 1915. showed 2,S42,2lo bales of cotton in spinners' warehouses and in public places of storage in Amer ica, against 1,222.7s7 bales at the same period last year. Based upon the most conservative estimates, the 1915 crop will not add more than 100000 bales to this surplus, making total of 13,- S4s.0O0 bales for the worlds consump- tion between August 31. 1915, and August 31, 1916.
 Neil brothers, who are the statis- ticians for the English markets, have given out an estimated consumption or American cotton for that period of l5,- 900, 900 bales. This estimate is based upon the worlds consumption of Amer ican cotton under present conditions. Instead of having a surplus of 2,S42,000 bales August 31, 1916, deficit or more than 100000 is imminent.
 "The world is convinced that Amer ican cotton is indispensable in time of war as in peace. The most i'm
 portant factors that have contributed
 to the reduction in the present crop are that large part of the 1914 crop was sold under the cost of production, causing 16 per cent reduction in acreage and so per cent reduction in the use of fertilizer The 1914 crop was abnormally large, and the lawf of supply and demand operated more se- verely against the price because Of stringent money market caused by the
 European wars. Conversely. the same laws have now caused cotton to ai- vance more than s25 bale on a fore cast of the present shortage.
 "The cotton producer has been taught that the fruits of diversity are often golden that is. he has learned
 to grow his foodstuffs at home under a system of diyersification. which has
 materially lessened the cost of pro- duction of his cotton. enabling him to
 meet his obligations and hold his ot-
 ton for better price if he seeS fit.
 The most important lesson that the
 intelligent farmer has learned. how ever, is that it is as impossible to successfully cultivate the cotton belt without plant foods, as it Is to culti- vate his crops without feeding his mules. In6 millions or uoiidrS spent within the last decade by the United States government and the manufac- turers of fertilizer in educational ad- yertising along this line has been won derfully fruitful. but can be given in fuential consideration by comparison with what 30 per cent reduction in the use of fertilizer has demonstrated | this season. It has stabilized fer tiibers In the minds of the farmers as nothing else could have done, and l he will in future know that phosphate, nitrogen and potash are as essential to successful agriculture as bread, meat and vegetables are to the health of his 1 family.
 | 'It does not take the scrutinizing eye of an expert to detect the glarins difference where fertilizers were used and not used, as the most ignorant ad- init it. Fertilizers have been the tar i get of much abused habit of speech /! in the cotton belt; namely, that Il takes most of farmers crop to pay for his fertilizer This statement al | ways indicated ignorance or exaggera- tion. When a crop is only fairly well l cultivated the seed alone from the in. l creased yield will more than pay fol l the fertilizers used. This Is state ment of fact after many years of ob- | servation and experiment. The farmer
 who uses fertilizers judioiously is not only abb to meet his obligations but usually hes & profit that should sat isfy any man on the amount invested