Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1915-10-10
COMING CAMPAIGN IN THE BALKANS
PROMISES TO BE AN EXCITING RACE,
WITH CONSTANTINOPLE AS THE PRIZE
By FRANK n, sIMoNDs,
Author Of THE Great War"

Copyright. 1915. BY the New York Trfbune)
Tne political possibilities Of the Bal
kan situation have been too frequently
canvassed to offer opportunity for any
fresh discussion. So far as 1t Is possible
to judge, the political Is now giving
way to the military, and for the third
time In three years the country south
OF the Danube is to be the field Of bat
tie between the little peoples whose
first struggle against the Turk in 1912
1913 led to the great world conflagra-
ton.
In any discussion Of the military as
poets of the Balkan problem there are
three distinct divisions that must be
recognized and described: The prob
able course of the German offensive
| against Serbia; the natural course of
the Bulgarian operations against her
neighbor; the logical direction Of allied
operations both to aid Serbia and
Tor the Balkan problem must be viewed
as a whole-toward the ultimate con-
quest of Turkey and the seizure of
IConstantinople. At bottom the two con-
nlctlng purposes must be that of the
Germans to reach and relieve the
turks. hard pressed by allied attacks
on the Gallipoli peninsula. and of the
many at the Golden Horn in advance
OF the allied fleets, which are still held
up at the Dardanelles.
The German Offensive.
Taking the German operations first. a
glance at the map will show that there
are two possible courses open to Gen.
Mackensen If, as rumor holds, the
victor of the Dunajec is to be sent to
hack way through Serbia to Con-
stantinople. The shortest and easiest
route across Serbia would be south
ward. crossing the Danube at Semen
dria and following the valley of the
Vardar to Nish and thence through
Prot to the Bulgarian frontier west
of Sofia.
Taking this route the Germans would
| the only direct railroad from Berlin
and Vienna to Constantinople. The
value Of the railroads in this. as in all
other campaigns, cannot be too great
~ emphasized. If Germany is success
| full In the war this Is the road by which
| win her place in the sum-"
by this same route the crusaders
descended to Constantinople, and the
Turks in their turn came west until
they were halted under the walls OF
Vienna Nish, the only considerable
town on the route. and the present
capital Of Serbia, was the birthplace
OF Constantine the Great and fell be-
fore the "frightfulness" Of Attila Be-
tween Nish and Semendria there is no
considerable military obstacle and the
| distance Is not great, being some $50
miles.
1t is also possible that the Germans
may attempt to invade Serbia from the
west. along the route followed by the
| Austrians in their two recent opera
tons But both Of these ended in dis
astrous rout, and the country is far
less favorable for an Invading army
IN addition there are no railroads over
the whole distance from the Bosnian
| would be reached about Nish. The
country. too has been wasted by pre-
vious invasions. while the Vardar val
ley: which is the garden Of Serbia, re-
mains. as yet, untouched by war.
Mackensen's Probable Method.
Judging by his past exploits. there is
every reason to believe that Macken-
sen, having concentrated a consider.
| able army and accumulated an over.
whelming preponderance in artillery
that is. having organized anothe,
| ''phalanx" like that which broke the
Russian lines at Tarnow-will force
| the Danube. crossing east of Belgrade
and endeavor to drive his way through
| the Serb defenses to Nish He will
have at his rear on the Hungarian side
OF the Danube several trunk lines, and
he will be able to reconstruct the
Semendria-Nish railroad as he ad-
vances.
II Serbia is able to put her whole
force before the Germans and the
allies undertake to protect her rear
from Bulgarian attack, she should be
able to muster between 100. 900 and l5O, 900
troops. veterans of three great cam
| paigns, victors over the Turk at Kum-
anovo and Monastir, over the Bulga-
rams at Bregainitza and over the Aus
TRANS at the Jedar and Valievo. Both
French and British artillery has been
sent to Serbia and the Serbian army
Is equipped with French field artillery,
which contributed much to its pre-.
vious victories.
Such an army, led by officers who
have proved their skill and have had
the experience of three wars, will Of
fer fierce resistance. Austrian Of
| ficers have testified to their preference
| to face Russians rather than Serbs.
But 1t represents the last m u,ary line
of Serbia. The terrible campaigns of
| recent years. the frightful epidemic of
typhus last winter, cruelty reduced the
population of the country, and If this
army Is disposed of Serbia Is done for
many years to come, for children and
old men alike are in the ranks.
Bulgaria's Campaign.
Meantime. while Germany is hacking
her way through the Vardar valley,