The Birmingham age-herald., 1915-05-02

while there may have been some pur- chases for European account, it seems certain that sales by foreigners have greatly exceeded their purchases, and some authorities contend that since the beginning of the war net sales have been made in our market for foreign account of about 100000 shares of stock and pos sibly $500 100000 of bonds; these figures, however, are probably exaggerated. The Annalist in It's issue of April sums up the situation as follows:
 Europe has been selling our stocks and bonds steadily but only in relatively small amounts. It was carefully esti- mated a month ago that European sales were averaging about s1.Ooo,o0O a day. It Is believed that the temptation of rap idly risen prices has led to somewhat heavier selling than within the last week.
 but even if the European liquidation averaged steadily $2,000000 day it would fall far short of the current excess of exports, which for the last threo months have averaged about $5,000000 day. The invisible balance against us is as under termined as the amount of Europe $ holdings of our securities, but 1t can hardly be $2,000,000 a day and may be less than $1,00000O. If it were $2,O00,O00 and Europe was selling us each day that enount of securities we would still be accommodating net credits at the rate of S, 100000 a day, through our excess of exports over imports
 When Peace Comes
 'It Is, of course impossible for the unanointed to predict the duration ot the war or it's ultimate results. but there are several elements that will enter into our financial position at the close of the war. One Is the duration of the war and another is the terms Of peace. Should the war be brought to a close in the near future on the basis of a draw, the demands upon capital would of course. be much less than would be the case
 if 1t Is fought to finish Tn that event,
 our position would be somewhat different should war settlements be made by ces- sicn of territory only, than it would be should large cash indemnities be imposed by the victors upon the vanqushed, which would involve complicated readjustment
 of capital. Some authorities hold that the European countries have much greater wealth than Is generally SUD- posed and that their recuperative powers are correspondingly greater. but 1t is clear that no nation can withstand for a long period of time the tremendous loss of life and property which has character izcd the present conflict. The first ef- fects of peace that follows a great war are by no means sure indication of Wlidt tiic ultiilldtt results VIII De, dllu sometimes 1t happens that the financial status of nations that have not been engaged in the war is disturbed almost as seriously as that of the participants When the long series of NapOleonic wars lad been brought to a close in 1874 by the exile of the French Emperor to Elba there was pronounced trade revival in England, which came to a sudden halt upon Napoleon's return to France ir
 March, 1915. His final defeat at Waterloo | resulted in great advance in British consuls, but the united kingdom entered at the same time into g period of indus trial and commercial depression which lasted several years. A similar depres- sion was also experienced in this country which had, since 1872, been engaged ir
 war with England. Our civil war wit
 and an accumulation of debt somewhat
 and a naccumuation of debt somewhat
 parallel to that now being experienced | by European belligerents, and 1t was also
 accomplished by market imitation of the currency. under the stimulus of which
 tke dominant section experienced trade revival accompanied by speculative
 mania which continued until 1873. Out
 civil war was the source of serious in. | convenience to Great Britain. which country was dependent upon the soutl 1 for the greater part of it's cotton supply yet England was prosperous during the time or our conflict and during the veal
 succeeding it's close, so that not unti
 the crash which followed the failure fir
 1866 of the London firm of Overand, Cur. ney & Co.,, did she face the greatest
 crisis she had experienced in two genera
 tions. The war indemnity imposed upor France by Germany in 1871 of 5000 000, ! 900 francs made it necessary for French I investors desiring to subscribe to the in. i demnity loan to become heavy sellers oi securities in London and New York Brit l ish markets, as well as French, were ser iously affected, so that within a few
 months it became impossible to sell American securities abroad, maturing
 loans were called, and many great rail. l road enterprises were halted during theiI construction. Thus the indemnity to Germany was a contributing cause to our great crisis of 1873. Our affair with Spain in 1898, is, according to modern ! standards hardly worthy of being dig
 nified with the name of war. It, how. yer. marked the termination of the years of depression which followed the panic of 1S93 and at it's conclusion began one of the greatest expansive periods oI modern history. which, suffering no ser. ious interruption either from the Boer
 war of from Russias war with Japan
 came to a sudden end in the fall oi 1S07
 1 Tendency Toward Imitation
 We should not forget that. although
 we have passed through no pronounced