The Abbeville press and banner. [volume] (Abbeville, S.C.) 1869-1924, 1915-09-15

ern county. There is no doubt IN
most thoughtful minds but that the
South's cotton crop is going to be
worth $3.50, 100000 to the men who
OWE it next spring, but it is worth
only $500, 10000 to the producers
at present prices-and it is to save
to Southern growers and to our
Southern country this extra quarter
of a billion dollars that the united
energies of press and people should
now be directed. The fundamental
facts seem to me to be clear:
l.. Cotton, even though the new
crop Of 1915 has started coming on
the market, i. still selling on the
basis of prices fixed by last years
1900, 000-bale crop.
z These prices must soon be ad-
Justed, however, to fit the conditions
of a $4,000, 0o0-bale crop Cor Proba.
bly only a 1O,oo0,0 900 or 1000, 000,-
bale crop,) and this adjusted price
ought at the very least to reach IL
cents a pound for middling.
AS briefly now, as clear argument
will permit, I wish to point out and
emphasize the truth of these state
ments.
1.-The Worlds Demands Justify
Twelve Cents.
Assuming even a $4,000, oo0-bale
yield of Southern cotton this year
land it will probably be less), this
years world production will be
5000, 900 bales short of the worlds
conservatiyely estimated consump-
ton during the coming twelve
months. This is to say, the world
will consume every pound of this
years crop and 100000 bales of
the present surplus.
Secretary Hester of the New Or
leans Cotton Exchange estimates last
years Southern production (not the
commercial CROP at 100000 bales.
The United States Government esti-
mate (16,134,s3O plus 791,464 lint
ers) is 1926, 349-practicall IT,
co., 900 bales. This was over 2,000,-
COO bales in excess of the 1913 crop.
Now what happened with this
bumper 1900, 000-bale crop in
spite of all the demoralized condi-
tons of trade and fnance-the crop
of which it was said last fall we
should not export 100000 bales'
The facts are that the world used
so much of it that the total worlds
visible supply of all cotton in mid
summer this year was only $780,
1913 bales against 3,522,276 bales a
year before. In other words, with
q 1900, OOO-bale Southern crop to
handle, the worlds visible supply in
creased only 100000 bales. What
is going to happen this year then,
With the South offering 100000 or
100000 bales less-and the pro-
duction of other countries also de-
creased? And this query brings me
10 another point:
1.-The Worlds Crop Prospects
Justify Twelve Cents.
Mr.. w. P. G. Harding of the Fed
eral Reserve Board early in the sum-
mer secured reports from consular
offices all over the world indicat-
ing a total cut in the worlds cotton
crop this year. of 100000 bales,
Egypt and India reporting radical
reductions in acreage" Since that
time the prospects have further de-
c.ined.
But even if we accept this early
over-estimate of the crop we see that
if last years crop, being 5000, 900
bales bigger than this years yet
Increased the surplus only 1000, 900
bales, then this years crop will
leave a 100000 bale defcit-to
De drawn from the surplus.
The facts are, however, that even
& 10000 900 bale estimate for the
South now seems too high. This is
not simply my view, but the view of
many experts. including so conserva-
tive and competent an authority as
the New York Journal of Commerce
which has just declared that in view
cf present conditions, "the yield
seems likely to be nearer 100000 900
than 100000 bales" And now
comes the Wall Street Journal itself
quoting William S. Halliburton, Of
Daniel O'Dell & Co., as saying: "Thc
current seasons crop may be as low
as 1O,5OO,O 900 bales. 1t is entirely
within the reach of present condi-
tons that we shall see II IL cent
l.- lfo,o +bo op6 Of tho season ~