Semi-weekly herald., 1915-02-25

sons and this would insure a lively
Anyone who wanted to speculate with
any hing like precision upon the final
outcome would have to know which
np.n was the second choice of ma
jcrity of the delegates.
The shrewd managers of at least
three of these aspirants are now en-
deavoring to place their candidates
in this favorable position. The con-
ties, is already on. There is certain
to be no choice on the FIRST or second,
or perhaps, the fifteenth ballot. At
some moment, however, the break
will come and then the delegations
with leave their favorite sons and
vote for the Republican held in next
highest esteem. His name may be in
Tie LIST already given or it may be
mentioned. More than one conven-
tior has been held in which dark
horsc has the winner.
In The old days a seeker after the
presidential nomination began by SOL
iditying the southern delegates. This
was Mark Hanna's plan and Mr..
Roosevelt followed it with success
when he determined that Mr.. Taft
should be his successor. 1t is differ
ent now. In the first place the nu-
merical representation from the
south has been reduced sevnty votes
and, in addition to this, the Republi-
cans have become tired of seeing the
balance of power in their national
conventions held by delegates who
could not promise a single electoral
vote. The probability is that the can
didate who comes into the conven-
ton with the largest number of south
ern votes will be the one least likely
to be nominated. The outlook is that
will be divided in their allegiance.
This, in itself, will make the next Re-
publican convention unique affair.
The fact that fourteen states now
have presidential preference primar-
les, choosing their delegates by popu-
lar vote instead of by the convention
method, will add to the complication
e hs tu4tGn 4GSos TMAsss Msryand ssfS Massp ape
chusetts, Missouri, Nebraska, New
Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Ore
gon, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dako-
ia and Wisconsin. Some of these
states have favorite sons but the ma
jority of them present open fields. If
Republican sentiment has not crys-
talized around any one man when the
primaries are held. it is likely that
states like Maryland, New Jersey and
Wisconsin will name some leading
member of the party and unite upon
him in the hope of securing for him
the second place on the ticket Mary
land has such leader in Gov. Colds
borough. 1t is not considered likely
that Mr.. Roosevelt will be able to
rehabilitate himself in the Republican
organization to the extent of carry
ing any state as Republican candi-
date and his Bull Moose party has
gone to pieces.
1t is not at all improbable that the
woman suffrage question will be a
factor in determining the nomina-
ton. There are now eleven states in
which women vote and these states
aggregate sixty electoral votes and
double that number of delegates
Some of the Republican candidates
like Senator Borah and Representa-
tive Mann, who have been outspoken
in their Endorsement of women suf-
frage, ought to have little difficulty
in receiving the Endorsement of these
states. If the woman suffrage states
decided to stand together they might
hold the balance of power in the con-
vention.
In much smaller degree prohibit
tion may also figure. The prohibit
ton movement has gained considera-
BILE headway in the past two or three
years and in states where delegates |
are chosen by popular vote, the posi-
tion of a candidacy upon the liquor
question might affect the result In
TACT the more the situation is an
ilyzed, the more does its uncertainty
appear. Perhaps, after all, that can
iidate may stand the best chance of
who has the largest finan-
,ial resources. 1t is going to cost
,reat deal of money to carry states