Arizona republican., 1915-11-14

you with my conviction that these movements are likely to be far more important and far more successful than any in history, heretofore, es- pecially if there is a bad settlement Of the war
 The Bitter Trade Fight After
 The Novoe Vremya, one of the lead ing papers in Ptrograd, advocates the pushing of a movement for q customs union of all the triple en- tente allies to be used against Ger many after the war" It claims Ger man manufacturers are utilizing la Dor at army rates of pay to accumu- late vast stores of cheap goods to be sold when trade is reOpened. It goes on to say that it is every bit as necessary for the allies to break Ger many's economic position as it is to break the strength Of her fighting force, and it suggests that the United States might ultimately join the union.
 Period of Rising Prosperity
 Strange to say, the danger of the outlook is further increased by the fact that all indications point to a period of rising prosperity here in Q As a result of this, and the heavy importations of gold and of the re- ductions recently made in the re serve requirements of national banks there is a probability of a very great expansion of credits. during this pe- riod. Under such free credit and such expansion of business. cost of production and prices are likely to 14a ra1n .,1 !, frYf, and insecure basis, making them so much more vulnerable from foreign competition both here and in foreign markets.
 Forced Export of Foreign Goods
 Moreover. if huge indemnities are levied these also can only be paid finally by the forced export of goods with the results have already stated. It should also be noted that the paying nation, after the indem nity was paid. would be a most for midable competitor in the worlds market for the very reasons that it has been forced to export it's goods against all competition in order to pay these indemnities, and in doing so had been forced to learn how to produce efficiently.
 I have studied carefully the opin ions that wages, on account of the number of workers killed during the war and the Reorganization of in Gustries and the immense amount of work required for restoration of those industries will be higher and that therefore. the cost of production will be higher in the warning countries. l have been forced to disagree with these conclusions largely for the reasons I have just stated.
 Hostile Protective Tariffs in Prospect
 The situation would be furthe~ as gravated by the reduction of the pur- chasing power in the non- -warrlnS countries. especially the newer ones If Europe. for instance. can afford to buy less coffee from Brazil. Jher it is almost certain that Brazil can buy less Of our manufacturers.
 Another factor to be considered is the probability of increasing hostile protective tariffs on the part of the fighting countries. first to a desire to find a source of taxation. and second to the need of making the countries imposing them aa self sufficing as possible in manufactures and food, as a military measure. The military value of this has been shown in this war.
 England Begins
 Within the last few weeks, England has put on heavy protective tariff as well as a great increase in its in come tax The chancellor, Reginald McKenna, said of these new taxes: If by taxation we can restrict inn reduce consumption. and bring revenue, We shall have found m ideal fiscal system The out look is that after the war the same opinion will hold good also in other nations that have been at war, i1 order to make as I have said, each nation as self-supporting as possible as a preparation for the next war.
 Disadvantage in Prohibitive Duties
 The thought naturally occurs here that we can meet these dangers by raising our tariff duties in the United States. but this is extremely doubtful for it must be remembered that as a defense against such conditions as have been describing. it is probable -here will be required in many in stances nothing less than prohibitory | iuties. Such high duties would ser OuSlV reduce the income pI lHf United States, and the deficits would | n all probability be replaced by | leavy increases in income taxes, which would in turn, De the basis | or further economic disturbances in | his country in the struggle as to 1 low the burden of such taxes should | ,e distributed. Moreover it is to be | that we cannot continue O export our foods without importing -oods in return. Successful trade an never be one-sided.
 Shortage of World Capital
 It is also to be taken into con- alteration that in all probability it Eill take two or three presidential lections and much economic distress n the meantime, to make this coun- ry go back to very high protec- ion.
 All indications also point to a hortage of the worlds available apital due: First, to sheer destruction. Second to the great uncertainty |