The Barre daily times. (Barre, Vt.) 1897-1959, 1915-04-30
REDFIELD PREDICTS
TRADE EXPANSION
Both Germany and Great Britain Are in
Danger of Losing Their Supremacy
in Foreign Trade If the War
Is Continued

| q iNbuib Va Cht fSuiOp'uh WoI "oo ipitT
cast by Sec. William G. Redfeld, of the
department of commerce, in a speech
here to-day before the American Acad-
envy OF Political and Social science. Both
Germany and Great Britain the secre-
tary of commerce said, were in danger
of losing their supremacy in the foreign
trade, if the war continued.
"No one, j think" he said "would be
surprised to find the United States sec
ond in the worlds competition, nor, II
the war shall long continue, be aston
! ished to find her first"
Sec. Redfeld, whose subject was
Americas international Trade as AT
fected by the European War;" reviewed
commercial conditions in the world trade
prior to the outbreak of the war, show
| ing that Great Britain, Germany and
| the United States ranked in the order
| named in competition for foreign bus
mess. He said that the United States,
when hostilities began, found itself un-
prepared to meet the situation either
financially or in a commercial way
ut is not necessary" he said. "to re-
view the history of the critical months
of August and September last. ! never
think OF that period without thankful
ness to the men in private business and
finance who with great courage and wise
resource pulled us through those trying
weeks. / hope they will acknowledge as
freely that the government did what it
was able to do to the same end. We
are concerned, however, chiefly to con-
slider what the extraordinary change is
which has come over the face of our for
eign trade since these things were done.
"A floating debt of perhaps 100000
900 has been paid in goods, and not in
gold. Some of the gold we had exported
to pay what we owed before the war
has come back to us in pay for debts
due us. Ii amounts since the first of
December to over $500, 100000 We are |
saving money as a nation at an aston |
ishing rate. The nations OF the world |
turn to us for cash. The nations turn |
to us. both belligerent and neutral, not |
only to furnish them goods but to loan |
them the money with which TO pay for |
the foods they buy from us. We are
lending the world money and we are sell
ing the world goods, and both to such |
an extent that our foreign financial out
look and the condition of our export |
trade has taken on within 10 months
an entirely new significance. A new
spirit has come into our commercial life
"a new sense of relationship to others
and of our power to help them and of
our ability to supply them"
The secretary said that there was "too
much industrial inertia" when the neces-
sity for broadening the foreign outlook
of the country developed.
Training in national inability had
done its work, he continued, "and when
the hour of opportunity struck, relative
ly few of US were ready to take the
step OF progress.
Business men, he said, however, were
weakening to the opportunity and ac-
ceptng the necessity for efficient de.
He mentioned the establish
ment of American banks abroad as a for.
ward step.
1T is doubtless risky" he continued,
ito foretel what the ultimate effects
Of the current war shall be upon our
We know where we were
before the war began-a great and grow /
ng competitor of Others who had many i
advantages over us. We know where /
We are now while the war goes on-the /,
me great industrial and commercial /
country which is at peace and certain
% remain so, These things we know ,
md We are glad that they are so. One
II our great competitors has been for
light months out OF the market. No one 7
ias suffered from her competition dur
ng that period. Another and lesser com :
,ettor also has been excluded. A third '
lreat competitor has been so intense
v occupied in the struggle as 20 be !
Unable 10 sustain at highest pitch in d
lther fields the commercial enterprises q
which have made her great, and a fourth, a
aving much Of her industrial territory v
coupled by hostile troops, IL in meas
ire crippled thereby in the foreign trade. "
Two factors will affect America IA 8
'orably in the coming days. One IL e.
he loss Of good will by her competi. e.
ors through enforced absence from bus In
ness. The other il the injury 10 her
Competitors through broken or suspend a
d organization This il not all. The 4,
rganization in MANY cases has been not !,
MY broken or suspended but the units :,
'hich composed il have been slain. BAD =
= are the loss OF the good will and die ~
upton Of business, far worse is the loss
the skilled hand and the trained mind
what the effect Of all these condi- u
Ons upon American international trade
to BE- cannot be limited or defined, but
would seem plain that our resources
r. undiminishei. our capital secure. our
'bor safe, that We are saving where
theirs are losing, that We are living Y
here others are diving. that with M y
he path u upward. and with them Il T. !,
J a large measure downward IL j. !,
'rtain that one result Wili h. our own ~
reater industrial independence
1T seems clear 90 me that II We do n
ur part we shall chsnge our place
m0ng the great competitors. The world u
never the economic gamer IN the last n
nalysis By war The losses must b.
bsorlsed and We must Do cur share ~
b. absorbing but IN the process ~
lsorptinn places relative q one an
fher NAV ~ exchanged No one. ] NH
ink. would h. surprised % find the
nted ~tatrs SECOND in the worlds com. NJ
tfign. nor u tie var shall long ron
nue.. No. astonisiled % fHi her frst II
we ore willing 90 las aside passion Il
ld rrejuHiee. 20 look 90 thines viii II
B International instead 81 q rarnchisl II
pp point. a. realize that inffieienev 4
urustriutic. If ~ Err ready - ri9s II
) inertia nnd take q step forward omf
ourselves - help uthers. " thosf
iugs can - d1fr. ] So ~ reassn Wis :.
; wsav nut tsrurmr the first ammnr tha -