New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1915-11-21
Bagdad Railroad the New
Route of Conquest for
a New Conqueror.
Copyright. 1918.
By The New York Tribune.

WHICH aooul tne canal mas already been
flooded and rendered impossible II will
have to meet armies supplied by railroad
lines at their rear and with every advan-
tage for munitionine and feeding.
The outcome of such campaign Is, Of
course, TO be decided on the battlefield. but
no one can mistake the fact that out Of
every ten chances nine rest with the Brit
ish, even II they have 10 face local In
surrection in their rear. for. heavily gar
risoned as Egypt Is, an instruction could
not give much trouble or last long.
Conceivably Egypt might be conquered,
the Turks might overflow into Italian and
French North Africa--for all three Medi-
terranean powers this would be a terrible
disaster; but would II bring them to their
knees? This seems unlikely.
England Cannot Stop.
The plain truth is that the German idea
is so sound In its fundamental concep-
tion that Great Britain cannot make peace
while any part Of It remains realizable.
German supremacy In Asia Minor and in
Syria would mean that sooner or later the
fight for Suez and India would have to be
fought. If Germany held Constantinople,
Bagdad and Jerusalem, nothing Is more
certain than that eventually she would
push over and attack Egypt. Two great
powers could not occupy these adjoining
sections Of the earth and not ultimately
fight for supremacy.
In attacking Egypt Germany Is strik-
ing at the very heart Of the British En-
pire. Success means, II not the end of
the empire, the constitution of a perma-
nent menace and not improbably the be-
ginning of the end. It means the ruin
Of British prestige in the Near and Far
East. 1t means the supremacy Of Ger
many in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The war has become duel between
Germany and Great Britain, as II was
bound to become when Russia was defeat
ed last summer Russia will come back
nothing is surer. France will continue to
hold the lines In the West, and she can
match man for man all the Germans can
now put on this front, even II the British
army Is materially reduced In Flanders.
But she can do no more. She cannot win
alone; she cannot even free her own ter
ritory.
But IL the war be protracted through
another summer the numbers Of the AL
lies are bound to tell. At whatever rate
of exhaustion you choose to estimate the
casualties Of the fighting nations, Ger
many and her allies are outnumbered two
TO one, and are losing almost at the same
pace as their opponents. Some time the
supply must give out. If Germany's foes
lose courage or hope first they will lose
the war. They may lose 1t by decisive
defeat, but this Is now utterly unlikely.
A Dramatic Threat.
To the neutral observer the present
= German offensive must seem in no small
r part a dramatic, but, from a military
u point Of view, an unpromising venture.
It 1t serves to fire the German imagination;
IL il may serve to discourage and break the
IS Allies. But Germans will not forever en-
n dure the extension Of their lines by in
d vasions that bring only casualties and no
" peace, and, even if they would, the num-
l. bers are limited.
It share the belief Of many other writer's
,. that the arrival Of the Kaiser at Constan-
II tinople will be the signal for an outburss
of peace agitation wherever German innu-
lence can operate. I believe that tne
!, terms proposed by the Germans Will IN
:" clude the evacuation Of France and BEL
:, oium and of all Russia, save perhaps
il Courland and Poland. But they will IN
;" cIude the hegemony Of the Balkans inc
y r;obt TO reorganize Turkey, and huge In
U IDENTITIES; without these Germany is bank
rupt. =, -, .r
J. n these terms are rejected by the Allies
there will probably be campaign against
: Egypt, but do not believe the Germans
now expect to make such campaign.
Everything points to belief on their part
that they can achieve peace with the sue
cess in the Balkans realized. Americans
must see in this programme complete
repetition Of the japanese course which
terminated at the Peace of Portsmouth,
peace in which the victor agreed to all
Q the things that he had declared he would
d not accept, because his internal condition
9 made peace necessary. But Japan kept
! what she had won and won what she had
e fought for. This is the German hope and
a expectation, and Germans the world over
e believe that, with the Turkish armies level
e led at Egypt and the British Empire
J. threatened, Great Britain will be ready to
e make peace, with or without her allies
: who must follow her course IL she quits.
il Just this is what the campaign IN tho
Near East seems to mean. It Is Ger
r. many's third bid for decision; she Is
:. now striking at England as she struck
! first at France and then at Russia. Can