Arizona republican., 1915-11-14

alyze them. Personally, knowing my own limitations, I have studied them for many months here and in the WarrIng countries in attempting to understand them even in part. I should not now endeaVOr to explain to you some of the conclusions that have been forced upon me were it not for the fact that such a pre- sentatiCn may help towards study and action on the part of our busi- ness men. This study and action I have been forced to believe are inn peratively necessary if we are to avert the disastrous effect of a worldwide economic war at the close of the present war.
 "The Next Settlement"
 American business men are fun damentally interested in the effects of this great war. As business men, we cannot fail to foresee that if this war is settled, as all previous wars have been. without providing for some means other than war for deai- ing with international disputes. there will be added to it's enormous charges the still greater continuous charges due to rivalry in armaments and other preparations for the next war. or as it is commonly referred to. the next settlement"
 Under such conditions, We are forced to believe that the European nations. after the war. will be faced with the insistent need for re-estab- fishing their industries at almost any sacrifice in order to keep up in the race for ornaments and to obtain means for EatrIinp Thair- ,- to keen their credit good for the next war. Predictions by students of af- fairs already abound that these ne cessities will cause them to make sacrifices of natural profits. lower their scales of living. and so create competition of unexpected severity a competition which also would be particularly ominous for our higher wage market. that so far has suf- fered least
 What the Economic Dancers Are
 The losses caused by the war or the cost of the war are not the greatest economic dangers of the war These may be summed up as a set back for a certain number of wears say two, or three, of five years-of the worlds production and saving of wealth
 The greatest economic dangers lie in the destruction of natural interna tional trade and business relations and the desperate struggle for busi- ness between nations based. not on business sagacity, energy and enter prise. but on the desperate need of such business as furnishing the means for victory in the race for arma- ments.
 The great European indebtedness and the necessary purchase of food and raw material by the European nations after the war can only be paid for either by sending gold. or selling securities. or exporting goods to the nations from which they buy. To send gold would be too dangerous on account of the extraordinary amount of paper money for whose security it will be imperatively needed Tn all the warning countries.
 When the Dumping Begins
 Nor has the sale of securities of the European countries Tn this mar Ret after the war a more promising outlook, for the market is likely to be slutted by foreign securities all ready sold here to a people who are 'DN eNNNhSApiiIetl lD buy securities on such a scale and whose demand for the money available at the end of the war will control because it will he willing to pay higher p.ices for that money and crec.,.
 There remains only the third me tAod. namely, the paying of debts by exporting goods to us. The latter is the only practical solution of the .fCr- traordinary compulsions. foreign goods will be sold here. profitabIv if competition will allow it. but just as surely unprofitably if competition makes that necessary.
 What mean is that such foreign l goods will be sold here at cost or less than cost if necessary so to sell them, because some means of paying | -he debts or the interest maturing | on the debts and for food and raw l absolutely needed abroad is imperative.
 Phase of Commercial Patriotism
 The question naturally arises How | an European nations continue to sell | goods at less than cost?" But Euro Dean sellers not being able to realize | profitable price will return home
 
 he wages of their employees to a point where the prices they have been able to get will again become profitable They will be able to do his for the reason that this export rade ts lmperatively necessary, as lave already tried to show. and must 'e made profitable if the nation is O vie with the other countries in and the other prepara- ions for the next war, so that the -cceptance of this reduced scale of lying and the reduced wages will be- ome a matter of patriotism just as he facing of death was a matter of 'atriotism in the actual war.
 The Market of the World
 Every indication points to the fact hat the United States will suffer 1ore severely than any other coun- ry in the world from this forced Xport of goods. At the close Of he war we will be by far the richest 1 { nd best market in the world. More