Evening public ledger. [volume] (Philadelphia [Pa.]) 1914-1942, 1915-03-01
SIX MONTHS TERMINUS
PLACED ON GREAT WAR
BY RUSSIAN SwTRATEGTST
Colonel S~humsky's Fore
cast, Based on First-hand
knowledge of East Zone,
Looks Toward Speedy
Ending of Struggle.
By LIEUT.-CoL. RoUsTAM BEK
In the New York Herald.

NEW YORK. March l.
The famous Russian military expert.
Colonel shumsky, has openly declared in
the Russian press that the present war
viii be over in six months.
A man OF great experience and strategi-
cal knowledge, who has never been guilty
Of putting forth exaggerated statements
IN connection with the situation in the
war areas, calmly and firmly announces
this conclusion. Studying the ideas Of
my Russian colleagues. 1 come to this
opinion that Colonel shumsky has taken
the most remote date at which the end
OF this terrible world drama may be ex-
pected.
My personal opinion is that we shall
secure a triumph over our enemy earlier
than the date fixed by my distinguished
compatriot. I VIII give briefly my rea-
sons for this view.
NUMBERS AND VICTORY.
The most skilful ~manoeuvring in the
battlefield in a modern war would be al
WAYS secondary to the moral superiority
OF the army and the nation concerned as
well as the equipment and the number Of
the troops. The preponderance of men is
a most important factor in the present
war. and in this lies the real superiority
of the Allies over their enemies.
Clauzewitz himself has acknowledged
IL. and in his books 1t is promised that
''the number of the fighters presages the
victory: superiority Of forces is itself a
base OF victory in tactics as well as in
strategy" Thus we can say that the for
muIa superiority in forces" was the
~ main has If tho Oraafprq nf the Garman |
plan of campaign.
The famous Won Moltke said. w
must concentrate the most numerous
forces, find the enemy, and by the pre-
ponderance of our troops defeat him ut
terly." II we study the work of the Ger
man General STAFF for two years before
the war we shall note that special laws
were adopted In Germany In order to in
crease the army as much as possible.
The Germans have followed the doctrine
of Won Moltke. They have found the
armies of their enemies. but they have
been unable TO defeat them; on the con-
trary. they were defeated themselves.
The first successful movement of the
German army on Paris depended, as 1
have more than once pointed out, on the
preponderance of the number of their
troops, and their defeats on the Marine
and User brought about the numerical SUI
of the Allies. That is now fully
acknowledged, and 1t will also be acknowl-
eQKeQ mat the INFERIOR uuIlDtT Vi AilC
forces of our enemy, in comparison Wit
the number of the Russians, caused the
German failure on the River Bzura.
The enemy's only chance of victory Is
for the German and Austrian armies
to increase the number of their
forces. Can they succeed in this?
The Austrian Government has issued
order prohibiting the retirement OF
reservists who have attained
the age of 4s years, while the German
General STAFF has sent to both fronts
about $4,000 men of the Landsturm.
DwINDLING RESERVES.
The Germans formed rs army corps
from reservists not more than 80 years of
Other reservists were to be used
My to replace losses and for service in
the rear. '
During the six months of war the Ger
nan army. according to Russian lnforma-
hon, has lost 100000 of it's best men. ]
have been replaced by men of the
Landsturm. 1t is clear. therefore, that
he German army in these circumstance
ias been getting steadily worse in regard {
o military quality. {
The German army corps had hitherto :
,een composed of two divisions, while the !
lrmy corps of the other countries a .
lways had three divisions. Now Ger /
many also has formed her army corps of q
hree divisions, and the third is a Land
turn. The German army by this system I
win be increased one and one-half times. t
II we consider the German regular field t
as consisting of 100000 to $500, 600 +
men, it will be seen that, thanks to the t
method, this increase can be very
considerable. But If we take note of the /
900, 900 losses which the m have v
uttered, we shall perceive that there will
emain in Germany only 1000 900 men of a
he L~andsturm, or only sufficient to enable
Germany to continue the war, even in the
lost favorable circumstances, for a pc
cd of six months.
After six months Germany will be in a F
tate OF such exhaustion that she will be a
TO replace the losses of her army, /
ven with the most incapable ~reservists. n