New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1915-11-30


But naturally the Germans will seek to
make of their success something which 1t
is not, They will see in it the-final proof
Of success, and there is not the remotest
warrant for such conclusion. The Ger
mans have followed the Napoleonic prece-
dent in Spain. Precisely as Mackensen
has crushed Serbia, Napoleon crushed
Spain and drove Sir John Moore's British
army to their ships at Corunna. For many
months Spain was almost completely under
French control, and it was not until the
Empire had begun to collapse that Wei
lington reached and passed the Pyrenees.
But the fate of Napoleon was not settled
in Spain. The Iberian phase was but an
incident. II was in the Moscow and Leip-
zig campaigns that French resources in
men were exhausted and the end made in
evitablc. II is in Russia and in the
Franco-Belgian fields that the war will be
decided to-day. Only few thousand Al
lied troops have been engaged either in
Macedonia or Gallipoli. If they are COM
PEELED 10 quit the Balkans altogether and
defend Egypt or Suez. the actual military
effect will be slight.
The present war will hardly be won
now, even by colossal Russo-German
campaign in the winter or next spring.
All observers. save Teutonic, believe that
there will be lacking to Germany numbers
for an offensive in the spring, but if they
are wrong then the struggle in Western
Russia will probably fill the news reports
of next summer. for no one believes Ger
man advance in The West is now possible.
Looking at the map and reading the re-
ports, one gathers an unmistakable impress
sion of the immensely of German success.
But neither the maps nor tn reports show
the British feet or indicate the extent to
which Germany is actually isolated and
beleaguered. sortie like the Serbian ex-
petition does expand the area of the in
vested territories, but it does not break
the enveloping lines.
Economically, Germany has been eliml-
mated. Her world commerce has wholly
ceased. She has to finance not merely her
own armies. but those of Austria, Turkey
and Bulgaria. Her food supplies have
long been insufficient, and it would take
severa! years to turn Serbian, Bulgarian
or Turkish agricultural and mineral re-
sources to advantage.
Efforts of the Allied commentators to
belittle German achievement on the mill
tary side in the Balkans get nowhere. Ger
many has won a remarkably complete
campaign and has probably accomplished
all she set out to accomplish save only to
obtain peace, and she has failed here, as
she probably expected to fail, because
peace is not to be obtained in consequence
OF a minor campaign in relatively unim-
poitant field.
The great difficulty for every one In get
ting a true perspective of the war arises
from the natural inability of an age un-
familiar with great wars to realize how
much nations can endure before they are
seriously or vitality injured. Macmillan
Harden put this quite frankly the other
day when he told his German readers that
none of the great powers fighting Germany
had yet been severely wounded, and Eng
land. the most dangerous foe, was scarcely
hurt at all.
Bernhard said the other day in an arti-
Gle printed in The Tribune that the Ger
man nerves would win the war. But
nerves only win wars when muscle and
physical endurance are gone. No such
situation has arrived or is in sight. All
that is clear is that after sixteen months
OF struggle the alliance which is weaker in
numbers and resources and without means
oc communication with the neutral world
/ has not obtained a decision, is not within
reach of decision and is losing in men
and money at a rate out of proportion to
comparative resources.
Germany has not obtained decision by
her Balkan success. She has won a cam
paign. But the immediate effect upon the
main issue is so far just nal, and it is hard
to see how it can have any effect hereafter