The Ketchikan miner., 1915-09-02
FROM MONDAYS DAILY

 will return to the conviction ex. pressed by them at the polls in 1914, when they had before them two years of democratic national legisla- tion and only the first phase of the war to take their thoughts from the democratic record.
 How the country regarded that record is told with indisputable em- phasis by the election figures, and need not be rehearsed at this time. The "empty dinner pail'' got in it's telling work against democratic SUI premecy then, as it has every na- tional election in which it has been an issue. It elected Garfield in 1880, Harrison in 1888, Mckinley in 1896.
 It will again be the hope of the republician hosts, despite the war intuition prosperity reflected in Wall street stock quotations. You cannot get it out of the minds of the people that republician national in other respects, spell prosperity. Every democratic tariff law ever en- acted has operated in way to con tinue and confirm this feeling. The existing law is no exception. It was getting into full swing against our home industries when the war came. You have only to recall the condi- tions in this country year ago to realize what was happening. Ceassa- tion of war would lift the curtain again on our real condition indus trially.
 Republicians, therefore, have more than one reason for praying for peace. They are confident they can win next year if they can get the ''empty dinner pail' into the minds of the people instead of the German submarine or the daily bulletin of 50-yard advances on 100-yard front, with its dreadful toll of humanity.
 The record of presidential success sions helps out the theory that it is harder to stay in the White House l than it is to get in. Aside from
 Washington, only seven of our pres idents have managed to re-elect themselves. They were Jefferson Monroe, Jackson, Lincoln, Grant Cleveland and Mckinley Cleveland, however, did not succeed himself directly.
 It will thus be seen that the sin gle-term plank which Bryan forced into the democratic platform of 1912 has history to back it up. For pres l idents it also has the merit of the | warning signboard at railroad crossing: "Stop, Look, Listen,' be- fore tempting fate.
 Several occupants of the White | House have refused to follow this wise precaution and have suffered thereby. In 1928 John Quincey Adams tried it a second time, only to be defeated by Andrew Jackson, whom he had defeated four years earlier. In 1S40 Martin Van Buren forced his | own renomination, only to go down in defeat before William Henry liar rison, who had been his leading riv- ] al in 1S36
 Chester A. Arthur's efforts in 1881 l to succeed himself resulted in defeat | for himself in convention and for his party at the polls.
 It will be recalled that Cleveland | in 1888 failed of reelection, but in | 1892 he was returned to the White House over Benjamin Harrison, who had vanquished him four years be
 before. Adams, Van Buren and Benja- min Harrison were thwartcd at the polls, therefore, by rivals over whom they had previously triumphed. Taft In 1912, howerer, went down before Woodrow Wilson, who was new conner in the presidential arena.
 Next year is to reveal whether Woodrow Wilson is to follow the Washington-Jacks Lincoln precedent or the Adams Van Buren-Taft preced- ent.
 If you keep in mind the fact that Wilson won in 1912 because of divided opposition and that in 1914 the democratic party vote, on any basis, failed to show an electorial ma jority, it is better guess that Presi- dent Wilson will not be reelected than he will.
 If, however, you keep in mind the fact tha Kitchener and other au- thoritics predict that the war is like ly to last through 1916, it is Il better guess that Wilson will succeed him self.
 Even Bryan, continuing his sub marine tacticts against Wilson from the peace -at-any-priee side, and Roosevelt attacking with the brute force of superdreadnough from the