The Birmingham age-herald., 1915-10-01
BIRMINGHAM TRUST. MONTHLY LETTER ON TRADE CONDITIONS
United States Rapidly Off setting Indebtedness to Europe-More Activity
 in Domestic Business

The general letter on trade condi- tions and business forecast for the month of October. 1915. issued by the pany, is as follows:
 By averaging the various authori- tative estimates, we arrived at the con : clusion that Europe holds perhaps not more than three billion dollars worth of American securities at the present time. Since the war began consider able quantities of our securities have been realized on and it is altogether likely that the major portion of those now held In Europe are held for per manent investment and will not be thrown on the market in any consid- erable quantities.
 Tt is, however wise on our part to build up an offset against this item so that our markets can never be de- moralized by a sudden unloading on the part of European holders of our securities. We are building up this offset now at the rate of nearly 1500 million dollars a year in a favorable trade balance because of our excess Of exports and if the proposed loan of 900 million to one billion dollars to the allied powers Is made, and in dfcations are now that it will be, this item will be further offset against our indebtedness in Europe. Consid ering these items alone, it would seem that we are rapidly placing ourselves in substantial and safe financial po- sition.
 We are also rapidly devising means for supplying ourselves with those articles which we have been accus- toned to import and the importation hoc I,ttt of of the war. In dyestuffs. fertilizers and the various chemicals the latest government reports show that we will soon be able to take care of ourselves and have these articles established on manufacturing basis which will en- able us to compete with the world after the close of the war.
 There is more activity in domestic business in most of the principal lines. The improvement in building opera tions is evidenced by the August per init report from 16O cities totaling over Fl million dollars compared with only s5 millions for the same cities last year, which is also a goin over August, 1913, and a very small decline from August, 1912. Building opera tions for the year to date have totaled only 536 million dollars compared with bs4 millions a year ago. The fact that building operations so far for the year show a decline of nearly 50 million dollars as compared with last year and that the month of August taken alone shows a gain over last year is indica- tive of real improvement
 Business failures during August num- bered 1928 with total liabilities of s15000,- 600. compared with 123l failures for the same month a year ago. with liabilities of si0,o00.000 While failures were nu- merous in August. there were many of small consequence and the liability show ing of s15,000.000 compared with $40 600 900 a year ago, shows an improvement which is little short of remarkable. And fur ther, against this $15000,O00 liability the failed concerns had assets in excess of $7,00o,0o0 There Is no better indication of the general business improvement and the substantial basis of present commer- cial operations than the improved show inc in business mortalities.
 Lake shipments of iron ore from the Superior district in August totaled S0S1- 600 tons compared with 5,S69,000 tons a year ago. For the year to date ship ments have ebeen nearly 27,000,O00 tons. compared with 21. .000o00 tons for the same period last year.
 "The production of pig iron for August totaled 2.7S000o tons compared with 2,563- GOO tons a month ago and only 1,99500O tons a year ago. Fifteen more furnaces were blown in during August, making a total of 249 in operation and the daily capacity was over 91,000 tons.
 'srhe unified tonnage of the Steel cor poration on August 31 was 4,90S 900 tons, compared with 4.929000 tons a month ago and only 4,H3,000 tons a year ago. The Steel corporation is not only not seek ing more business but is not accepting all the business which is offered it at pres- ent quotations.
 "Of the g thousand coke ovens in the Connellsville district over 2S thou sand are in operation, producing 33S thousand tons per week and shipments gre running between 10 and II thou- sand cars per week.
 The production of gold at the Rand mines for August was nearly 779 thou sand fine ounces compared with an output of ITO thousand ounces in July and TIP thousand ounces for August a year ago. The production for Au- gust, 1915, is the largest since May, 1913.
 Although commodity prices are a shade lower now than they were in July and August, they are still con eiderably higher than the average for