Daily capital journal. (Salem, Oregon) 1903-1919, 1915-03-03
Henry Clews' Weekly
Financial Letter

markets of this country are still con-
trolled by war news--the strain of the
desperate European conflict being daily
more and more manifest. Now that
spring is at hand, fresh military actiy.
itics must be expected; the period of
deadlock is obviously drawing to close
and preparations strenuously pushed all
winter by both sides are Fastening a
much greater and more acute crisis.
Hence action more decisive than hith.
ertc experienced cannot be far distant
The intense financial strain abroad was
very sharply reflected in the recent
collapse Of exchange, from which there
has been only a partial recovery. In
this country the serious arrangement OF
our foreign trade resulting from tn,
war has produced big excess of ex.
ports which, though flattering at first
sight, is adding to the general compli,
cations. In settlement for our large ex.
ports we must take either gold or Sc.
Icurities, or else grant extensive credits
until more convenient circumstances for
settlement arrive. Gold we do not need,
because we have an ample supply on
hand and regularly produce surplus
for export. London needs gold vastly
more than do we, and it is to our own
interest to aid and not embarrass Lon.
don; although considerable sums have
been engaged at Ottawa for New York
and more may follow. At the same
time we are taking considerable am.
cunts Of American securities from for.
cign holders, and under present copdi.
ti0ns may continue this absorption if
the Inducements are sufficiently great.
Before the war is over, some very i'm
poNant shifts will ocur in our foreign
exchanges. Remittancos abroad win
necessarily decrease owing to reducco
foreign holdings as well as to reduce
profits and dividends. Tourist travel
abroad will be practically nil this com.
ing season, and the two or three hu1.
dred million dollars which Americans
usually spend every year in foreign
countries will be largely kept at home
incidentally to the advantage of Ameri.
can railroads and hotels. There viii al.
50 be material decline in immigration
which has already fallen heavily and is
"A factor Of some consequence in our in.
tcnrational trade balance.
Our foreign trade plainly shows III a
effects of the war. In January the TO.
tai exports of merchandise were $267
100000 or $63,S00O0O ahead of last
year. About $4l,0O0,OO0 of this in.
crease was credited to brcadstuffs alone
and $J,OOO,0OO to meats. In addition
there was large increase in shipments
of war materials. Some important loss.
es, however, had to be taken into con.
sidoration, including n decrease of
about SS,OOO,OOO in cotton and $4,000.
OoO in mineral oils. JGnuary's total
exports have been only twice exceeded
IN October, 1913, and again in November
W. Our export trade, though salts.
FACTORY in column has been spriously
deranged; and the heavy shrinkages
nave only been compensated for by
shipments of foodstuffs and war m?.
towalS. TIE demand for the latter is
liable to sudden fluctuations. Should
thc Dardanelles be opened allowing the
free expectation of Russian grain, tina,
must inevitably have an important cf
rect upon our own exports of wheat,
and when peace begins to dawn, we
may expect Il drop in the orders for the
munitions of war which have hitherto
useiully filled the gap in foreign orders
In imports there was also heavy loss,
the total for January being 1922, ,0OO, ,OOG
a decrease of $32,500,OO0, COMPARED
,Wlth the same month last year. This
left an excess in exports Of $l45,50O
WV compared with 100000 u year ago
a more reliable indication of the ef
teets OF war on our foreign commerce
VIII, however, be found in the coun
lfiy record of exports and imports 70,
the past seven months, or since th,
war began Our total exports With
| t'ls period have been $l.33I,OQ0 OOO. oj
SlSi 100000 less than the same tim,
last year Imports were $93O, Goo ,OOO
Or Sl3IOOO,OOO less than year ago
Here is n loss in exports and impoIt,
combined Of 1924 100000 in the short
space OF seven months. AS Il result OF
theSc fluctuations the excess of eyport,
lor the seven months was only $IO3.
0cO,Oo0- compared with 1854 ,O0O,OOO las
year and $lSO,O00,GO0 the year before
/ ihe tHct that the excess of cxports ha,
uWlndled S5O,0O0,00O in the last scvc,
months Is somewhat Of surprise. How
lof TINS arrangement Of our fOrnipi
trade viii extend, it is impossible /,
estimate Much damage and confusio,
mas already been done, but we are like
TO remain more fortunate than TN,
ota'r nation, as long az our ability {,
snip toodStuffs, cotton and war malcii
Is IL unchecked. Any stoppage ot
'neSe through en embargo or otho
causes, will add to the dcrangemen
winch already exists in our foregi
intercourse.
Ihe business situation at home is no
satisfactory. Only in the agriculture
uiStIictS is there any normal nctyit,
ana genuine hopcfulncss. In other part
OF the country there is Il sane detcrmin
atlon to make the best of things an,
Keep cool under irritating conditions
hut war has so disturbed credit an,
lro1e rs to impair confidence, and II,
rcaI Improvement in the lattcr rcspcc
ean be expected until the prospects 70
PeeaCe improve. An early terminatio
ot the war would undoubtedly be
powerful stimulus for business rccoy
cry IN the United States. At prcscn
business Is being conducted on restrict
ca lines Clearing house returns sho,
u,nll llnlSl'ed activity in all parts Of III
NHNH t...I I'D.