The Birmingham age-herald., 1915-09-27
Will Furnish An Accurate Guage to Business COndi-
 tions in United States
ALLIES LOAN WOULD
 IMPROVE MATTERS
Moral Effect Would Be Felt Immedi. ately-Would Be Used In This Country and Would Stimu-
 late Business
By HOLLAND

New York, September 25.-(SpeciaL Jun
 rediying much of the discussion which hal
 been occa stoned by the negotiations for z
 loan to England and France Jointly lie.
 a strong impression that immediatel.
 after the negotiations are concluded ther,
 will be strong evidences that the long
 promised business revival has begun
 Some of those who have spoken in this
 way expect to see partial confirmation oi
 their view through the annual report which is soon to be made by the Clearing
 House association of New York city. The new year of the New York clearing house
 is October l. Its advent is celebrated then or a little later by the report of the aggregate transactions in the clearing
 house for 12 months These reports us-
 ually furnish fairly good evidence oi
 business conditions during the 12 months. The transac ctons in the New York clearing house are not merely or exclusively local. but they reflect much of the commerce and business activity of the United States during 12 months. The institution is there fore from that point of view national rather than local.
 One of the features of the reports is- sued each year by the Clearing House as-
 Sociaton to which rererence Is often made is the demonstration that no more than a very small percentage of cash Is required in settleemnt of balances. The average for many years has been about per cent. Aggregate transactions involv- ing hundreds of millions have enta1led the payment of about per cent in cash. The rest of the transactions consist in ex- change or swapping of checks. Thereby the great part which credit and exchange of commodities represented by checks play in the annual transactions in the United States ia illustrated.
 The clearing house report for the past 12 months is likely to show upon analysis or study the effects of the European war. The probabilities are that 1t will be a unique report in view of the fact that the stock exchange was closed for several months and trade was deadlocked in the early weeks of the war. The effect of in the report.
 But the chances are that since January l of last year the unparalleled foreign trade of the United States VIII be to some extent reflected in the clearing house re- ports for the year. But after all, what will be more gratifying VIII be the dis closure made by this report of strong ttuocnCloa bOWAiQ tHe TGViVdl or QOmeS- tic business of all kinds. That tendency Is proved by recent reports whicf show how greatly clearings have increased through the clearing houses of the United States since July 1. In the past, statistics of that kind have been regarded as in- failible symptoms of favorable business cor ditions.
 Some of the leaders in the financial district take this view that the moral effect of granting a loan of several hun- dred millions to England and France Joint ly will in view of the fact that the funds thus secured will remain in this coun- try. and will be utilized as payment of commodities purchased by England and France, and to some extent Russia, be sure greatly to stimulate business For the past five or six weeks evidence has come from every part of the country that business is getting over the dead cen ter which has been characteristic of 1t for nearly two years. The conditions are ripe throughout the United States for a great revival of business. The retail merchants throughout the country are beginning to buy much larger stocks of goods than they hays been accustomed to do for sometime. During the months of business depression they bought from hand to mouth.
 Furthermore. from all parts of the country come gratifying reports of the ex- tent to which debts have been liquidated This has been made possible by enforced economies and by wiser methods of ex- perGiture than those which until recently characterized the American people For this reason the conditions are excellent for a healthful and gradually increasing business prosperity.
 The fact that the United States is chang. ing its relation to the rest of the world 80 that now it is becoming a creditor na- tfon and may within a few years be ex- porting capital in large amounts to other countries is spoken of as a healthful stim- ulus to business activity Some bankers say that the country as a whole stands too near the stupendous transactions which are now in progress fully to appreciate the nearing of them. It has required such positions as James J. Hill and Henry L. Higginson of Boston have made within . few days to enable the people at large