New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1915-05-01
REDFIELD SEES u. S.
SECOND IN TRADE
War Means Great Trade
Expansion, Secretary
Tells Economists.
PRICE PREDICTS HIGH
WAGES IN EUROPE
Twenty Per Cent of Worlds
Capital Will BE Destroyed in
One Year of Carnage.
lRr Telegraph % The Trlhune. J

Philadelphia, April 3O.-That the
world war means q great commercial
expansion for the United States and
possibly the ousting Of Germany and
Great Britain from supremacy in for
eign trade was the keynote of tO-day's
session Of the American Academy OF
Political and Social Science, which
opened a two days conference here.
In view of conditions in Europe, this
meeting of the Academy, its nineteenth
annual congress, took on new impor-
lance. The general topic Of discussion
was the effect the war would have on
American economic interests. AT this
mornings session the reaction on
American industry and labor was con-
sidered, and in the afternoon meeting
the reaction on Americas international
trade
OF the days addresses, the one that
attracted most attention was the dis
cussion of "Amcrica's international
Trade as Affected by the European
War" by William C. Redfeld, Secre-
tary of the Department of Commerce.
Sees America in Second Place.
The Secretary expressed great OPP
timism for Americas future in the
commercial world. Expansion Of trade,
he said, was inevitable, and he added
that no one would be surprised to find
the United States second in the worlds
competition, and if the war continued
long, first.
Industrial inertia" unpreparedness
to meet new conditions presented by
the war, Mr.. Redfeld said, had at
first hampered the United States and
prevented full realization of her OPP
portunity. But now, he declared, bust
ness was awakening to its chance for
development.
"A floating debt of perhaps 100000
900 has been paid in goods, and not in
gold. Some of the gold we have cT-
ported to pay what we owed before the
war has come back to US in pay For
debts due us. II amounts since the
first of December to over 100000, 900.
We are saving money as a nation at an
astonishing rate. The nations of the
world turn to us for cash. The ma
tons turn to US, both belligerent and
neutral, not only TO furnish them
goods, but to loan them the money
with which to pay for the goods they
buy from US. We are lending the world
money and we are selling the world
goods, and both to such an extent that
our foreign financial outlook and the
conditions of our export trade have
taken on within ten months an entirely
new significance. A new spirit has
come into our commercial life--a new
sense Of relationship to others and of
our power to help them and of our
ability to supply them"
Imitation in Europe of the prices of
both labor and commodities will prob
ably follow tho war, and, as a conse-
quence, this country need not fear that
its manufacturers will be unable to
meet the competition of the "pauper
labor of Europe" when the war is over,
said Theodore H. Price, economist.
One Year Cost of War, 5000, 100000.
One year of the war will mean the
destruction of $4,000 900 900 worth of
property and the reduction of the
worlds capital by 100000, 100000, said
Simon n. Patten, Phi. D., in discussing
THE Menace TO America of the Euro
pean War" This means, he declared,
a destruction of 90 per cent of the
wealth of the countries involved in the
war.
At the evening session Albert Bush
nell Hart, professor Of government at
Harvard University, spoke on "Un-
armed Neutrality"
The administration at Washir gton,
in its policy Of neutrality" he said,
lis navigating foggy sea, strewn
with rocks, along coasts where the
lighthouses have been put out; yet it
still appeals to its neighboring and
friendly nations TO continue in the
good old compass courses. In a world
full of roarings and vaporings the
United States is the one great power
in the world which at the present mo-
ment is basing its policy upon Justice
and friendship between nations; that
is, upon permanent lines of good will,
instead of upon new and strange doe
trines adopted in order to count some
small advantage over a military adver-
sary."
Upon the United States, he said, de-
pended the enforcement of respect for
the rights of neutrals. He added:
Nevertheless, if the United States
had not a serviceable navy, its pro-
tests would receive about as much at
tention as the objections of China 20
the political trepanning which the Jap
anese are performing. In this war all
the belligerents hunt in couples. and
all the neutrals act for themselves.
There have been times when las in
1850 group of neutral powers united
to state their grievances and formu-
late their demands. Perhaps il will
be necessary to revive that process"
Az the morning session, at which
Alba b. Johnson, president Of the
Baldwin Locomotive Works, presided,
the effect of the war on industry and
labor was considered. Samuel Com
pers, president of the American Fed
Grafton of Labor, declared that or
gained labor had been the wage
earners' greatest protection in the
crisis caused by the war.
"Organized labor" he said, "has been
the wage-earners' greatest protection
in the crisis that has come 10 Amer
ica's industry and labor through the
European war.
THE initiative, resourcefulness and
self-reliance of the wage-earners eX-
pressed in the organized labor move
ment have been their greatest protec-
ton. Through O. sanization they have
dealt constructively with unemploy-
ment, have made effective protest
against excessive prices, have prevent
Cd wage reductions that would have
had cumulative effect in disorganizing
business, and have demanded that con-
struCtion work by municipalities and
other governmental authorities shall
be continued, and more undertaken
wherever possible"