New Britain herald., 1915-11-20
U. 5. WOULD LOSE
 AFTER LONG WAR
Too Great a Struggle Would Prove
 a Setback
(Special to the Herald.)

contains many difficult and un- precedented problems, practically all of which are an outgrowth of war The violent derangement of our for eien trade the sudden and oyer- whelming demands for munitions. the undreamed of applications for Amer ican funds and the consequent sec ondary disturbances affecting ship hing, railroads factories, labor, com modities, exchange, money, securities, etc.. are too familiar to require men, tion. No line of business has entire ly escaped the effect of the European cataclysm. Some of these problems have already been successfully faced. Others are still in prospect and will require cool and careful action. AL though our financial and industrial resources lave already been mobilized upon a war basis, there still remain two great contingencies yet to be faced; either an early peace, or pro- longation of the war, the former may be within the probabilities. A severe ly disastrous and costly winter may be influential in that direction.
 Effects of Long War.
 Should the war continue indefinite ly, it will have a twofold effect At first it would mean @ prolonged de- mand upon the United States for war materials and food products, such as has been experienced for the past six months. Temporarily we should gain by such a result, but eventually we should lose by a long war and it would be dangerous self-deception to expect that the United States could permanently profit by struggle end- ed only by exhaustion. Although this country will undoubtedly feel the harmful effects of the war less than any other, and will actually benefit in some respects, we cannot hope to avert the reflex action of destruction of millions of men and billions of property, the present cost of the war being at the rate of about $30,000,- 000,000 a year. When the war is over we may secure some temporary ad- vantage by selling machinery, con- structive materials, etc, to fill the gap until the devasted regions are able to supply themselves; but subsequently, our exports must be affected adversely by an inevitably diminished buying power of all the belligerents. As to imports, it is hardly likely there will be such extensive dumping as feared, for the simple reason that Europe will have little surplus for export, and for some time after the war labor in the belligerent countries will be large ly drawn into reconstruction work. while the wastage of capital must re- strain foreign enterprise for years to come. Following the war a severe struggle for recovery of the world s markets must be expected between Germany and Great Britain. That contingency, however, is some dis tance away, and during the interval the United States has a splendid op- portunity for securing a foothold in foreign markets, which it is not over looking and which if properly de- veloped will be an important outlet for our rapidly expanding industrial energies
 Both Gains and Losses.
 Evidently, therefore, a prolonged war will have both it's gains and it's losses for the United States. Should the war come to an earlier end than expected, especially in view of rum ored peace movements, the results would be vastly better for us than it's continuance. We might lose some profitable war contracts, but on the other hand we should gain infinitely more by the stoppage of waste and the restoration of normal activities before the much dreaded international ex- haustion set in; not to speak of higher motive for peace, which is to stop the awful carnage that is drench- ing Europe in blood. With the com ing of peace a new set of problems will have to be met. Our financial de- mobilization would be in order, and many industries which have suffered by the struggle would be permitted to return to their normal relations, vastly more encouraging outlook than the inflationary profits from war orders, which thoroughly demoralize capital and labor alike.
 Improvements at Home.
 Home conditions show further im- provement. Railroad traffic is stead fly expanding, the number of idle cars has dwindled to a minimum and in some cases there is actual famine, due to the congestion of traffic. The latter however, is partly owing to the scarcity of ocean tonnage, the war having withdrawn or destroyed about one-quarter, or 1O,0O0,000 tons. of the worlds shipping. Trade in the West shows considerable expansion, particularly in the wholesale dry goods establishments new building exhibits a decided revival, and the steel trade continues upon it's unex- ampled boom. Our exports also con- tinue on large, though somewhat diminished scale. The foreign ex- change situation has been greatly inn proved, due to the placing of exten- sive foreign credits and the opera tion of the $5OO,OOO,OOo Anglo-French joan which served to offset the pres sure of commercial bills upon the market. This country is undoubtedly still a creditor nation in the large