The Topeka state journal. [volume] (Topeka, Kansas) 1892-1980, 1915-01-05

NOtnln& 10 De gained from 0Woll-
ing unnecessarily upon depressing
factors" writes Henry Crews. the New
York banker, in his annual business
and financial review, after he had re-
! counted the European war. the Mex
lean problem, the antitrust and anti
railroad campaigns and the incessant
agitation Of the politicians Al among
the things that helped to make BUSH
| ness poor and uncertain during 1914.
And fortunately he continues,
there are many indications OF a pos
itively encouraging nature. which it is
better to contemplate. Among these
are a good harvest. q new banking
system. cessation OF political attacks
on business, favorable rate decision.
a generally sound condition Of busi-
ness and credit. cheap money. also q
growing impression. supported by
proof that the United States being the
least affected nation by the war. will
lead in the recuperation which must
follow. Already there are signs Of a
turn in the tide for the better. the
real turn arriving when the foreign
exchange situation cleared in October.
The worst has certainly been thor
ough1y discounted. barring unexpected
developments in war. The west con-
tinues persistently hopeful. because 1t
has been receiving good prices for
what it produces. The east l. al
ready recovering from discourage
ment: and the south. though severely.
hurt by the low prices Of cotton. secs
it's salvation in a greater diversity of
crops. The worst Of the cotton crisis
has been passed, since money IL
forthcoming to AIRY the surplus. and
our foreign trade is rapidly recovering
from the disruption which followed
the opening Of hostilities.
IF we were to balance the favorable
and unfavorable conditions affecting
business. we should summarize them
thus:
'Favorable-Easy money; better po-
litical outlook; good harvests; inter-
state decision; heavy exports.
"Unfavorable-War; economic strain;
slack trade; injured confidence: foreign
liquidation.
THE balance between these factors is
largely in favor Of Improvement. There
is no question but that the year closes
with a tendency toward reviving conf
dence and increasing activity. De-
preston is gradually fading. Cheap
money and low prices are powerful in
certives to new enterprise. Our great
corporations, particularly the railroads.
have pushed economy to the point of
starvation. They must soon enter the
market As purchasers. II only to re-
place annual wear and tear. In this
~ q a.
cision which though notsentirely salts
factory, shows a more considerate
spirit that must exert a favorable in
fluence upon railroad credit. Quite a
number of our Industries are being
stimulated by foreign orders. chiefly
for war material. One of the most i'm
portant effects Of the war, SO far as the
United States Is concerned. will be the
new opportunities II opens to W in Abr-
eixn markets. Our manufacturers are
already alert concerning these possibili-
ties. In South America and Asia the
fields for American enterprise are e9or-
nous. The opportunity IL there. and 1t
should be seized with avidity. When
peace comes, foreign nations will be so
fully occupied with reconstruction at
home that little attention will be given
to export trade. except by Great
Britain. During the last Ave months
our foreign trade has been much de-
ranged by war. Our total exports for
the eleven months of 1914 were $780,
coo. 900, or $3s3, 0O0, 900 less than a year
ago. cotton being the largest single
item of loss. Our imports for the same
eleven months were $1.674,OO0. 600. an in
crease of $66, 900 900 over last year. In
the first six months Of the year import
traffic was largely stimulated by the
new tariff. Since the war, however,
imports have shown steady contraction
while exports. although still less than
a year ago, show q tendency to rapid
recuperation. At the end of November
the excess of exports for the eleven
months was $4,000. 100000 compared
with $s42. 00o. 900 a year ago. a decrease
Of $44s, 900. 900. The gold movement
ports for the eleven months being $222.-
ing to $3.50 900. 900.
THE outlook for 1915 is unquestiona-
bly, becoming more hopeful. 1t seems
impossible to believe that the war will
last another twelve months. Those
optimistically inclined think it may be
ended in the spring or not later than
midsumer. Let us hope their optimism
will be justified. Nevertheless. the de-
termination on both sides to fight until
a thorough finish may prolong the ter
rifle struggle longer than anticipated.
For this reason a conservative policy
should be followed in all business COM
mitments until peace IL more deff-
nitely in sight. The great mass Of for
eign loans which must be taken care
of IN the future will absorb q large por-