New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1915-01-02
YEAR In COTTON
UPSET BY WAR
Yield Far Above the Early
Official Estimates
Demand Light.
REDUCED ACREAGE
A PRESSING NEED
Exports Much LoWer-Domestic
Iakings Cut by Decreased
Purchasing Power.

purchasing Power.
In cotton, as in markets for other
important commodities, the dominat-
ing influence has come from the war
IN Europe. Any calculations that were
made prior TO the outbreak of hostili-
ties between the Germanic allies and
tnelr opponents, would have TO be re-
vlsed IN accordance with such develop
ments. Ordinary forecasts would be
vaiueless in view of the upheaval that
began to write new history in all in
dustries on July 81.
consequently any review Of condi-
tions FOR the calendar year Of 1914
would be largely Of perfunctory char
acter so tar as the first seven months
are concerned. Events during that
period would not be regarded as deci-
slve IN their effect upon those which
came during the closing months of
the year
/ According to the figures Of Secretary
Hester. of the New Orleans Cotton
Exchange, the cotton crop for the sea-
son of l91319l4 for the commercial
year which ended September /, 1914.
was l4,5SS,59l bales, which showed an
increase over the previous season Of
4Zl,416 bales. The yield was con-
sldered adequate TO needs so far as
quantity was concerned. although there
was great scarcity Of good grades.
AS 3 matter Of fact, the crop of the
past season was the lowest in quality
since lSO6-l907. The average grade
was placed as strict low middling.
Inc crop Of 1928 averaged mid
dhng TO strict middling; that of l9l1-
w averaged strict low middling to
mldollng, while the crops of the three
ding.
II Is necessary TO bear in mind that
= we average grade of the season Of
4Sl5-lsl4 was strict low middling The
average price of middling for the
season was l3.49c per pound. thus
gNlng an average commercial value per
bale to the crop Of SOS 06 on the basis
OF mlddlings The total value of the
crop was the highest ever known and
amounted to 1857 1923 To this
should be added the value of cotton
seed, which was placed by the Census
Bureau for the season at Sl55,500, 900,
thus making total value for cotton
IN us raw state of S1,102 900, 900, which
breaks all previous records.
Great Crop of Current Year.
The. new season, however, tells an
entirely different story in spite of
the fact that the cotton crop for the
current year is likely to prove fully
Z'OUO,UOO bales in excess of the one
previous According to the estimate
OF the Department of Agriculture, is
sued on December 10, the cotton crop
planted last spring will be 1896, 900
bales, exclusive of linters, which NAV
reasonably be figured at approximately
100000 bales. This would give a COM
merciai crop of about 100000 bales,
compared with l4,56s,000 bales last
year. Ordinarily & crop Of this size
would sell at an average price of more
than lO12c per pound, although the
minimum for the season might have
been close to &C per pound.
AT the start of the new planting
season there was not much indication
OF the enormous yield that finally re-
suited. The early season in Texas
was cold, wet and highly unfavorable.
In the Eastern belt, for instance, in
the Carolinas, Georgia and Alabama
the months of April and Nav were
cold and backward, although there was
no excess OF rain.
Distinction should be made between
the start OF the season in the Western
belt and in the Eastern belt. IL was
assumed that the crop would be very
small IN Texas, Oklahoma and Arkan-
sas because Of the cold, wet spring.
Under such conditions seed usually
fails to terminate and replanting is
necessary. In Texas it was believed
that there would be great scarcity of
seed for this purpose, and it was as
sumed that the crop would be ire
mediably curtailed. The result, which
will be announced later, will show how
lamentably the representations of
so-called experts go awry.
Considerable optimism was felt by
experienced cotton men over the out
look in the Eastern belt. although this
view was not borne'out by the Depart.
ment of Agriculture. The mistake
made by the Washington officials was
based on the failure TO take recogni-
ton Of the character of the cotton
plant The dry, late season caused no
anxiety to those who were familiar
with the habits of the erratic plant.
These veterans felt il there happened
to be delay in the termination of the
plant, owing to drouth, that timely
rains during the warm season and the
late spring or early summer would
cause the utldS " DO up NCly
rapidly. This proved to be the case,
and although the Department of Agri-
culture placed a very low condition on
the prospects of the Carolinas, Geor-
gia and Alabama, subsequent develop
ments have proved that the experience
of the cotton trade was correct. All OF
these states have produced very. large
crops, although, with the exception OF
Alabama, none has proved to be a
bumper
Arkansas and Oklahoma had made
splendid recovery from their poor start
and that the Eastern belt had chance
of making more than an average yield.
The crop report on August ] came
al a time when the whole world was
disturbed over the market for cotton,
and there is an underlying feeling
among cotton men that the Bureau OF
Crop Estimates in very kindly spirit
attempted to paint the crop outlook
less favorably than conditions JustIned,
for fear that any figures which might
lead to hopes of bumper yield might