Honolulu star-bulletin. [volume] (Honolulu [Oahu, Hawaii]) 1912-2010, 1915-05-20
WHEN WILL THE WAR END?

real war would begin this month and would
not be over for at least three years from last
August - ..--
His words seemed ultra conservative then;
now they are beginning to have prophetic
sound
After nearly ten months of bitter warfare,
Germany holds all but small corner of Bel
GUM. She holds good part of France. She
holds a good part of Russian Poland. Winning
into the enemy's territory in that first great
dash which came from absolute preparedness,
the Germans hold with bulldog grip their
strong defensive positions on the Allies soil.
Behind these advanced positions are the mar
velously developed fortresses and fortified, en-
trenched lines on German soil. Behind the mil
lions of trained men that Won Moltke threw
into the field last August are other millions of
recruits, German zealots to the bottom, ready
to take their places on the firing-line as their
comrades drop
The Allies program of economic warfare
"starving Germany out, - as the Germans
phrase it's not likely to be the success its
most ardent opponents hoped. There is good
reason to believe that Germany has laid in vast
stores of grain in the past few months in spite
of Britain's blockade For one thing, Rumana
the Germans, a proceeding to which the cynics
refer as the profitable bargain which kept Ru-
mania out of the war. And in the present tenn
S perof the German people ready to endure any
sacrifice that Deutschland may conquer-it will
be necessary to starve this great country as
Paris starved in the Franco-P russian war, as
Przemysl starved until a few months ago, be-
fore economic hardship forces to its knees the
government at Berlin. , q a1e
Austria, whose weakness was shown early in
the war; must be taking new heart at the re-
peated defeats of the Russians in Galicia and
the Gatpathiaps. Always as the Slav food
rushed down the Carpathian slopes and seemed
about to overwhelm the plains of Hungary, the
Austro- German forces have recognized some
how and thrown back the encroaching waters.
z Two possibilities offer themselves to bring
to close in few months this war that other
wise seems destined to continue until 1917 or
1918 One is that the situation In the south OF
Europe may change materially In favor of the
Allies Italy IS entry into the conflict would be
one strong factor. Success for the Allies at the
Dardanelles would be another. Not only would
passage of the Dardanelles give Russia quick
and remunerative market for her wheat, but it
would allow her an entry for munitions and war
supplies It is known that Grand Duke Nicol-l
seviteli' S problem now is largely one of guns
and ammunition. The winning of the Darda-
nelles not inconceivably would bring Bulgaria
and Rumania into the fray in definite co-part-
nership with the Allies, though both must re-
gard with some misgivings the prospect OF
Russia in control of Constantinople and the
consequent enormously enhanced strength of
the Cars empire.
The other factor operating to shorten theI
conflict is the huge expense it entails upon all
the belligerent countries. A recent estimate OF
the expense for one year upon the warning ma
stions was made in Washington after careful
examination of large number of authoritative
reports. This puts the figure at sixty billions
of dollars The interest alone on this sum is
staggering This estimate includes direct ex-
penditure of the governments, capitalized value
of the loss of human life, and loss of production
The cost to the principal countries is given as
1920 900 for Great Britain, $13, 100000
for Germany, $7,510000,0o0 for Austria
: Hungary, S., Az, 900 for France, 1862
100000 for Belgium and So 100000 for
Russia.
Statesmen, warriors and economists know
that the belligerents cannot go ION indefinitely
piling up billions upon billions Of Indebtedness.
There must be halt But. the Allies cannot
halt while Germany holds her lines in Belgium,
France and Russian Poland. Were peace to be
proclaimed now, it would be with Germany
driving the bargain. Slowly but surely, if the