The Topeka state journal. [volume] (Topeka, Kansas) 1892-1980, 1915-01-19
TRADE OUTLOOK CHEERFUL.

Despite the war, conditions mere
affecting American securities are inn
proving In most encouraging fash
ion.'' writes Henry Clews, the New
York. banker. in his weekly financial
review, and he continues:
There il a better feeling in both
banking and financial circles having
its foundation in positive changes for
the better. The credit situation has
much improved. Money is redundant
and promises to continue easy for
some time to come. The new federal
reserve system, though not In full
running order. is working well and
has already provided much assurance
and relief. Clearing house certificates
have entirely disappeared, and the
Aldrich- vreeland emergency currency
IL being steadily retired. There 10 no
lack Of funds to good borrowers; the
accumulation being due to dull trade,
to the return Of crop money, to the
lowering of reserve requirements from
IS per cent to IS per cent. and to the
fact that we are in position to draw
gold from abroad. Today we are
loaning money to Russia, Canada. Ar
gentina France. Sweden and else
where. The war il Europe End our
own strong financial position have
caused striking shifts in the currents
of finance and trade, which will great
ly strengthen the prestige and power
of New York as an international
credit and money market. Many Of
the transactions now taking place here
are Of course the immediate conse-
quence of the disturbance in foreign
~ -
factors will disappear, not without.
however, leaving New York in q posi-
ton Of advantage considerably greater
than existed before the European con-
flagration.
by far the most encouraging ele-
ment in the present situation is our
foreign trade. Our exports are pro-
crossing by leaps and bounds, due to
liberal foreign orders for war ma
terials, to heavy exports Of wheat ut
high prices and to practical resump-
ton of cotton shipments. The out
ward movement on these accounts is
by no means at an end, and the or
ders for war materials promise to run
to even much larger amounts. The
effect of this foreign demand for
American products at time when
imports are running comparatively
light, is to leave a heavy excess of
merchandise exports estimated at
$11O.OOO,0OO in December and as
much as $4O,0OO,OOO in the first week
of January. If these tendencies con-
tinue, conditions will soon favor
large influx of gold. unless Europe
should cend b ok American securities
more freely than at present. or I'M
less European banks should under
take to restrain the movement by
artificial means. This week we have
been surprised by the announcement
of about 100000 of gold from
China to the United States. The con-
Germ responsible for this unusual
Movement explains that this transact
ton was done through the home Of
flee in New York. instead of as usual
through Its branch office in London.
A small consignment is on the way
from France. possibly for Cuba.
London--as is probable If British
merchandise exports decline-it might
come Fl :. Ottawa, where the Bank
of England has a special deposit. or
it may come direct; though the Bank
of England would very likely en-
deavor % check any large gold move
ment in this direction. The Russian
government. it is announced. has
placed a credit of $25,OOO.OOO in New
York to be used for payment Of war
materials. France also recently de-
posted 100000 in New York. and
from both sources larger sums are
expected to follow, which means con-
tinued activity for certain American
industries.
Our Industrial situation is still some
what spotty. AS just shown, special
lines are enjoying exceptional activity
owing to the war. and since there are
no signs of early peace this feature
promises to continue for some time to
come. The steel industry is enjoying
somewhat better prospects: this being
due to the general spread Of hopeful
ness. to buying from the railroads
since the rate decision and in 4 small
degree owing to foreign orders. The
steel trade, however is still far. below
normal and prices while firmer are very
low. There. is also better feeling in
the great textile trades. though here
the conditions are somewhat mixed.
Some branches Of the wooden industry
have benefited by the war; others have
been injured by the resulting interior
ence with wool supplies. Large i'm
porta fiOns of woOlens UNDER the new