The Hawaiian gazette., 1915-08-24
PRESbENgINEST
YEAR HINGES ON
EUROpEANW WAR
Expert New York FUrecaster
says People Way inject
TO swapping Horses
HENRY u sToDDARD

Il
There h widespread Feeling that
IL the nations In Europe continue fight.
ing Until 1916, voters here viii not be
disposed 70 'nswap horses, They win
Keep woodrow Wilson N the white
House. He viii be 'swar'' President,
Feeardless Of home policies or cOnli,
ltions haes f.ea . sERs4E ~
"rh@k God FOR woodrow Wilson! &"
The slogan for which the fjemoci ats
were defided in the. eongfess iieht last
year, viii be the slogan for 1915, assuu.
ing that We are not At war ourselves by
III y ne Sane token, il i insisted
that should the end Of the war come
before our presidential election occurs
/ kNpyembet, 1870, the voters will re.
turn to tho conviction Expressed by
fhem az the polls IN fgf4, when, they
had before them two wears OF Demo.
cratic National legislation and only the
. tIst chase Of. the wal. tp take their
J thong hts from the Dem6tfatic record.
/ Empty pinnet Pan, Again
~ How the country regarded that rec
ord a told With ihdispptable emphasis
BY the election figures, and need not
be fehPafaed At this time, The e empty
dinhef pail got IL its telling work
against Democratic supremacy then, as
~ has in every national election in
| which II has been ah issue. II elected
GARFIELD Ia 1900, Harrison in 1855, Nc
Rinley In 1896. 80 .0,
1T win again he the hope Of the Re.
| publican hosts, despite the war NUM-
tion prosperity reflected In wall Street
stock quotations. You cannot get IL
out OF the minds Of the people that
Republican, national control, whatever
its shortcomings in other respects,
spells prosperity. Every Democratic
tariff law ever enacted has operated in
q way to continue and confirm this feel
ing. The existing law Is no exception.
II was getting into foil swing against
our home industries when the war
came. You have only to recall the con.
ditions in this country a year ago to
realize what was happening. Cessation
of war would lift the curtain again on
our real condition industrially.
Republicans Pray For Peace .
Republicans, therefore, have more
than one reason for praying for peace.
They are confident they can win next
year II they can get the "empty dinner
pail - into the. minds Of the people in
stead of the German submarine or the
daily bulletin of fifty.ysfd advances on
a hundred-yard front, with its dreadful
toll of humanity.
The record Of presidential suceessiops
helps out the theory that 1t Is harder.
to stay in the White House than il is
to get in. Aside from Washington, only
seven OF our, Presidents have managed
10 re-elect themselves They are JEFF.
ferson, Monroe, Jackson, Lincoln,
Grant, Cleveland and Mckinley. Cleve.
land, however, did not succeed himself
Only Eight second Terms ~' 7
It will thus be seen that the single.
term, plank. which Bryan forced into
the Democratic platform Of 1912 has
history to back Il up. For Presidents
1t Also has the merit Of the warming
signboard at a railroad crossing "Stop,
Look, LISTEN before tempting fate, "a
=, Several occupants Of the White House
have refused TO follow this wise pre-
eadtiot and have suffered thereby. lii
1928 John Quincy Adams tried IL sec.
ond time, only to be defeated by An
| drew Jackson, whom be had defeated
| four years earlier. In 1912 Martin Van
Buren, forced his own denomination;
only to 90 down in defeat before vii.
liam Henry Harrison, who had been his
leading rival in 1885.
Resulted In Double Defeat
Chester A. Arthur : efforts In 1884 to
succeed himself resulted in defeat for
, hlmeelf in convention and for his party.
ut the polls.
II will be recalled that Cleveland in
1883 failed of reelection. but in 1899 he
was returned to the White House over
BENJAMIN Harrison, who had van
| 1uished him four years before. Adams,
Van Buren, and Benjamin Harrison
we're thwarted At the polls, therefore,
by rivals over whom they had pfevi.u
ously triumphed. Taft In 1912, how.
ever, went down before Woodrow viii.
son, who was newcomer in the presi.
1 DENTAL arena.
War May Decide 1t
u you keen in mind the fact that
Wilson won In 1919 because of a al.
vided opposition and that in IDA the
democratic party vote, or any basis,
by congressional districts or by states
/ INHou. " SHOW an titVVOTdl IHdlOfiLyg
It Is a better guess that President VIII!
Son will not be reelected than that he
will. 0|IH
IT, however, you keep II mind the
fact that Kitchener and other authori.
ties predict that the war is likely 10
last through 1915, II h a better guess
that Wilson will succeed himself. .
Stand BY the President !"
Even Bryan, continuing his sub.
marine tactics against Wilson from the
peacee.at-any!pfiee side, and Roosevelt
attacking with the brute force Of a
superdreadn0ught from the "earry.a.
bip,stiek side, are not likely to pre-,
vail over the feeling always expressed
by our heoble Ii time Of trouble that
y is best to stand by the President.
Much TO his own surprise, In 1884, Lin,
ecln found that feeling deep.rooted,
Ind won with ease in November a re.
/ election about which in August he had
publicly expressed great doubt.
We have had PfasidentS made ~ 4
war In our own country, hut we have
never had President made by q war
in Europe. Perhaps 1915 has one in