The Birmingham age-herald., 1915-10-21
Prominent German Bases Prediction on English
 Business Sense
TEUTONS TO DEMAND
 HUGE INDEMNITY
Will Also Desire to Establish German Colonial Empire-Thinks British Will Soon Perceive That Nothing
 May Be Gained by Long Fight

Berlin. october s.-tCorrespondence ot Associated Press. )--"By spring we prob ably shall have peace" This remark by one of the most prominent state officials to the Associated Press correspondent may be taken as indicative on the view of the probable duration of the war held in German government quarters, or, at any rate. in certain inhuenta, circles of the government. The person quoted oc- cupies position which lends weight to his opinion on this subject, and the re- mark was made incidentally during a dis cussion of certain future possibilities in the Balkan situation
 Pressed to give a reason for his opinion. the official replied that he based his ex- pectations largely on the sound business sense of the British, which would lead them to move for peace as soon as they saw nothing was to be gained by con tinuing the war
 We now hold In the west" he con- tinued, "a strong fortified line enclosing a
 
 ritory We soon shal, have a similar iine fortified in tho east. Behind these two lines we can sit tight and defy all ef- forts of our enemies to break through.
 Trusts in English Business Sense
 ''1 have much confidence In the business sense of tho British and think that when once they have found the Dardanelles cannot be forced this will lead them to take steps in the direction of peace"
 The cardinal point in the desires of of ficial Germany. is a large indemnity. This is demanded not only to compensate Ger many for the steadily growing war costs, but to provide a guarantee against flu ture attack. The usual reply to arguments that exhausted nations probably would be unable to raise the huge sums In ques- ton is that they need only cease paying out the billions spent annually on arma ments, or materially reduce such pay rnents to finance the required indemnity The second cardinal point Is the restor- alton of Germanv's colonial empire in lin diminished form, with certain additions. presumably at the expense of Belgium. That nation would be permitted to retain
 it's independence and territories. with the exception of the Mouse line of fortressea. The demand for annexation of a strip of territory down to the coast line has been dropped if, indeed. 1t ever formed part of the governments programme Even naval experts are no longer agreed on the necessity or advisablity of obtaining the much discussed naval base on the EnG- fish channel, particularly in view of tho development of the submarines and tho increase in their radius of action. Belgium and France An insstent demand is heard in some quarters that in case of withdrawal from l Belgium. Germany should retain control l of thu railroads for number or years | but this so far as ascertalnable. is not an essential condition.
 1 France Is looked to to provide a large part of the expected indemnity Terri- | toral demands against France apparently I are confined to rectlfcatlons of the from l tier for strategic reasons,
 In the east the situation is less clear. | Earlier in the war the government ap- parently did not contemplate or even de- | sire accessions of territory at Russia | expense beyond a possible advance of | the frontier for strategic reasons to the strong defensive swamp and river line | formed by the Bug, Narew and Warta rivers It was felt that retention of Rus | sian Poland by Russia would present cer | tain advanges from the viewpoint of Ger | man internal politics. the steady chain of victories and the insstence of Austria produced change however, Chancellor Non Bethmann-H Holweg in his august speech indicated clearly A determination l to deprive Russia of her Polish territories. but whether these districts would have some form of national autonomy be an- nexed to Austria-Hungary or administered by Germany and trla-Hunsary Joihty | is still uncertain.
 Ultimate Victory Assured l This statement of German demands may l seem to be cool assumption of certain ultimate victory at a time when Ger manys opponents are announcing their l firm determination to prosecute the war | to successful end. However. 1t is synp- | tomatic of the positive assurance of vir- tually all Germans who are convinced l the German armies cannot be beaten and that the Balkan situation soon will clear up in their favor giving them road tp Turkey, when copper, cotton. foodstuhs and other supplies may be obtained. Then. they say. Germany can wait until her opponents are ready to acknowledge themselves beaten.
 To all arguments to the inpossibiity of keeping the manhood of the patton on the firing line for protlacted period, as to the steadily growing financial burden of the war. as to the paralysis of German business life, except as devoted to war purposes. and as to the general desire for peace. they reply that other nations arc suffering equally and that Germany Will not be the first to crack.