The Birmingham age-herald., 1915-06-30
BILLION DOLLARS !. Is TRADE BALANCE FOR FISCAL YEAR Figures Have Never Been Even Approached During
 Nations History 1908 WAS NEAREST TO PRESENT MARK America Also Saves This Year About One Hundred Millions Usually
 Spent Abroad by
 Tourists
Bv HOLLAND


 New York, June 9-(Special )-The Sec retary of Commerce. MT. Redield through his subordinates, has anticipated in gen eral terms the formal report which will come from his department some time in July telling of the trade balance in favor of the United States which has aecumu- lated in the present fiscal year, which ends June 30. In the financial district, this balance is spoken of as having been cumulated in nine or at most 10 months of the present fiscal year If the records of last July had been maintained through out the fiscal year the department of commerce would have been unable to re- bort a favorable trade balance, but in stead an adverse one, probably of large proportions. The department estimates that the favorable trade balance for this fiscal year is not far from $1, ,000. 900. .000. That is a little under the estimate which Secretary Redfed himself made early In the spring, although he confessed that the figures he then gave were rough esti- mates Still, he admitted that he would not be astonished if the excess in our favor upon international trade were from s1, ,25O 100000 to $l50o,000,00O.
 On January l, 1873, the Secretary of the Treasury, John sherman, was able to re- port that the United States had resumed specie payments. The resumption, how ever had been gradually perfected ard was in fact established before the date fixed by act of Congress for this resump- tion. At that time the predictions were many that one effect or the resumption of specie payment would speedily be found in the increase in our exports. The req soning for that view was based upon tn. belief that the United States would enter at once upon a period of great develop ment of material resources and that this | would be especially true of the south. This was expected to be one of the effects of the resumption of specie payments.
 1 The view was justified by the event and l the marvellous recuperation which has taken place in the south dates from the | year 1880. This activity in the soutd combined with great expansion of rail- way building, whereby our agricultural fields were made available for farming did serve in d little while greatly to in crease our exports although these were for the most part of agricultural products We were importing vast amounts ot money for we were borrowing in Great Britain and in continental Europe the capital necessary for railroad constiuC- tion. At last the Washington authoii- ties were able to report that our visible international trade had yielded favor able balance. Reports of that kind have been continued, not regularly, but off tad on but there has been no time since the resumption of specie payments when the visible trade balance has approached he magnitude of the figures which Secre- tary Redfield now reports for the expiring fiscal year And in the past 8 years there have been only nine when the visible tra e balance has been about one-half of the amount estimated for the present fiscal year.
 The Highest Previous Record
 Sometimes comparisons are made De- tween the record which will be completed on June 90 and the next highest record, which was in 1908 That was the year following the disastrous currency panic which culminated in the last months or 1907 On the books, the figures Tor lsos stood at So66, 500, GOO in round numbers But that was an emergency year, although It was a reverse emergency in comparison with the one which has been prevailing since August 1 of last year. The emer- gency was caused by the currency panic' There were F months of forced econom ,s such as had not been experienced since the spring and summer of lSsS. It was season when those who had great wealth found it necessary to utilize various in- struments which represented that wealth in order to obtain needed funds. The re- suit was that the American people as whole bought only the necessaries or ire l Merchants and manufacturers liiipoi,'s' very little, but our own commodltles III every kind especially agricultural-food and fbre--were sold in foreign markets at almost forced sale. For that reason she custom house records showed that we had sold to foreign countries $60VoVU III money value more than we bought. These 1 figures represented the emergency ana the means taken to overcome the perils arising from the panic of 1907. But Tn that year we were compelled to pay upon accounts, of which no record is made Ill the custom house. such as dividends upon bonds and stocks held abroad, charges Tor freight and insurance were very heavy, and then there were a good many mil lions which Americans spent in Europe, so that the actual balance was estimated 1 at not much over one-half the record as that appeared from clearing house re- ports.
 In the present fiscal year the emergency is Europe's, and the magnitude of 1t IS reflected in the figures which Secretary Redhelds preliminary estimate of he present fiscal years report. Against this $1. 900, ,000.000 there are to be considerable offsets. At the conferences held between national bankers and the federal reserve board at Washington last fall, some at tempt was made to obtain an approximate idea of the amount of American securities held by investments of citizens of foreign countries. One of the bankers who at- | tended this conference afterWard reported to his friends in New York that 1t was not possible to obtain any estimate which could be regarded as fairly reliable. Some of the estimates were for as much as S5. coo 900. .000; others were as low as $3.00C.- 100000 But even if the smaller amou it be nearest to accuracy, that represents the payment of millions to investors in foreign lands in the form of dividends and interest upon their American securi- ties
 There is one item which for 15 or 2C years has been yearly growing with great increase which may be eliminated from any estimate of the offset against the trade balance of $1.00O, ,00O000. That is the item represented by American letters of credit. One of the foremost of interna- tional bankers said the other day that Americans were taking out of the United States each year and expending abroad in the form of letters of credit consider ably in excess of $10O.00O, GOO There is practically no expenditure of American money that way this year. What the | charges of freight insurance and cthel payments not mentioned in the official rec. ! ord amount to can only be guessed at s But the impression commonly ncld by lthosc who know is that of the trade bal. ance of $1, ,000 900 at least $70O 00O GOO are for the United States, as the trade .x- ! pression is ''to the good" All the indi- / cations point to the continuation through out the greater part of the present fiscal lyear of the conditions which have made 1t possible to roll trade balance of $1 ,000.- OOO in the fiscal year which ends Wednea-