Evening journal., 1915-09-22
lFrom the New York Tribune.

one supposes they can equip such a
number and 10000 is perhaps the
largest number they may be expected to
furnish tins year.
As to Russia, tenth of her popula-
tion would give 100000 available re-
cruits. But this is a preposterous mum
Der to equip. At the outside she cannot
hope to supply more than the 5000 900
which was her quota last year. All told,
then, the Allies will have behind field
force of 5.250.OO0 reserves amounting to
about 7,OO0,O0O men, If their permanent
casualties amount TO the same figure as
last year. that is, $500, 900. they will
still have 100000 in reserve after keep
ing their field armies at their present
figure of 5.250,000.
The case of the Teutonic allies is quite
different. At the outset of the war they
put 4,5O0,000 men in the field; they have
lost 100000 and have made them good,
keeping their field armies at 4.500,00o.
But their total resources, applying the
law of one-tenth. were materially less
than l2.000.00O Back of their field ar
mics they have now therefore, a reserve
of something less than 100000, which
viii be increased by about 100000 dur
ing the year when this years classes in
Germany and Austria are put in the
field.
Field armies and reserve combined. the
Austria Germans have now S,2O0O00 If
their loss this year equals that of last,
which was about 100000. they will end
the year with 100000 and no reserves
as compared with the Allies who will
have > .25OO0O in the field and reserve
of AGO 600. As 100000 men in the
west and 500. .0O0 in the south facing
( Italy and Serbia are the minimum for
/ safety this will leave hut .200O0O tc
face 100000 Russians. The 100000 in
& the west will face not less than 100000
French and Belgians plus another ] =
| 100000 of British.
Now at the opening of the year OF
1917. that is on AUGUST I 1916. Russia
4 win still have 5000. 600 men available tC
! reinforce her field armies: more if she
/ equip them. Italy will have more than
a million. if she or her allies can equir
them. Great Britain will have no new
/ masses. but like the contestants she ear
doubtless supply a number equal to th,
, annual class for her it would be $50. 900
/ for France. 100000 The Allies viii thus
have between 1000 900 and 10000 900 tc
meet new losses.
But the Austro- Germans will hav,
only the class of lsi7 or Of 1918 if. al
/ is probable they will have anticipated
: as the French have. All told they vii
then have only l.20.0O0 in the field tc
face 100000 in the field and 5.OOO.OOI
in reserve. Making all allowances il
is plain that in the winter or spring o
I 1917 the Germans will be unable tS
hold their present lines anu have Il
= narrow their fronts east and west. Thel
Z may have to do it a year from now, bu'
/ before the second year is ended there
4 is no reason why they should be actually
in distress. although all chance of sue
cessful offensive operations would pas
/ by next spring.
II is possible to eliminate the Turkisl
campaign from these calculations be
cause no attention is paid to the colon
al and native troops employed by Grea
Britain and France. which are equal II
numbers to the force used at the Darda
nelles, although some of the colonia
troops are i'm France and some of tn
: home contingent at the Straits
In sum, then at the rate the casualt,
lists progressed during the past year
q Germany will end the second year Of th
| war with but 100000 troops in tn
field and no immediate reserve. wherea