The Washington herald., 1915-01-18

Wheat, which on January 8 sold at
$1.41% a bushel, the highest in years,
may easily go to SIS a bushel in the
next few years, in the opinion of many
grain experts. Flour is now not far
from $3.50 a barrel. 1t is expected to
go to $40 barrel, probably in March
or April. Some wheat men say wheat
will go to So a bushel in the next
twelve months
In the face of a world war without
precedent these prices are not tre-
mendous. Wheat has beaten 81 a
bushel in this country. In 1867 IL sold
at Sass.
Nor do these prices mean general
starvation. A barrel of flour makes
300 loaves OF bread. In pound loaves
at cents each SIS worth of bread
can be made from A $3.50 barrel of
flour.
The pinch which certainly will be
felt in some homes may be mitigated
by making bread at home, by using
cornmeal, by buying buckwheat flour
in big quantities and feeding the fam
lily on buckwheat cakes in cold
weather.
When wheat sold at S1S5 in 1895 the
price was not due to the Spanish-Ameri-
can war but to Joe Letters corner in
wheat. The present price has no such
false foundation. 1t Is being paid be-
cause Of war shortage and the certainty
that the shortage will grow. This Coun-
try has sent abroad this fall six barrels
Of flour and six bushels of wheat for
every one barrel and bushel exported in
average times.
Russia is not able to export grain in
large quantities as she usually does. Aus
tralias wheat crop was short this year
almost for the first time. She has had
to import grain.
III labor is so short abroad that ships
can't be unloaded at London, is II likely
that an invaded France will be able to
SOW grain for this years CROP" r. l..
Sweet of the produce exchange asked
a reported ITS a fact that the port
Of London is Congested with ships that
can't be unlOaded promptly.
Experience has shown that in pro-
longed wars-and the present war seems
likely to be a matter of years, not months
the highest price of wheat has been
reached in the few years following the
close Of the war, when all ports are open
again, commerce is free, and every coun-
try is crying for foodstuffs.
That is why l say wheat may easily
20 to IS a bushel, a price without prece-
dent SO far as l know. The present
time is without precedent, too.
Look at these figures of the effect OF
wars on wheat prices, which RenskOrf
Lyon & Co. have just put in booklet
form
I'm the American revolution wheat
brought ninety-three cents on an average
at seaboard markets in 1TSS. 1t rose year
Iy to 1896 The average price was y ~,
but 1t touched s. 1t continued high owing
to the French revolution. Napoleonic
wars and the war Of 1872.
Waterloo was the end Of the Ma
poleonic wars, but wheat rose from Sl.Is
in 1876 to $2S5 in 1917. That was the
aftermath OF long, devastating war.
From 3S cents wheat went to a.s9 In
1855. in the Crimean war. 1t was H.2S In
1854 but did not reach SIS until 1867. two
years after the civil war was ended. In
the Russo-Turkish war of 1s76-lS7s, wheat
started at SS cents, rose to $1T6 in lSII,
broke to n cents at the end Of the war.
but then rose to S1.H in 1882.
That shows that the real high prica
often comes after hostilities are all over.
So 1t may be this time. particularly with
Germany and Austria, their ports open at
last. bowling for foodstuffs. .
THE general formula for the price Of
-four Is this: Roughly a barrel Of noTr
Is worth FIVE times the market price OF
a bushel Of wheat. So now wheat is
around sl.5O a bushel. and hour $40 a
barrel