Pullman herald. [volume] (Pullman, W.T. [Wash.]) 1888-1989, 1915-11-19

position of the market does not ap-
pear to be greatly changed from thst
reported week ago, says Broom
halls. Scarcity on the spot is still
being keenly felt, but the last two
weeks shipments to the United
Kingdom have been liberal, so that
good arrivals may be confidently ex-
pected within the next fortnight: in
the meanwhile farmers are deliver
Ing native wheat rather more freely,
but still not freely enough. Very
large supplies are coming into sight
in North America, and the new crops
OF the southern hemisphere are con-
tinuing to promise well and are now
getting very near to harvest in the
early districts. In North America
there Is active speculation going on,
and while the demand from Europe
keeps up, which is usually at its
largest at this period of the season,
operators In Chicago and Winnipeg
may not find 1t impossible to sustain
the actual level of prices even In the
face of tho present enormous move
ment.
1t seems pretty certain as IL con-
sumers would have to remain at the
mercy of North America growers,
the English and the British shipown-
ers, for at least a further four and
one-half months, for even if the
present favorable promise of the
Australian and Argentine harvests
be fulfilled, it will be at least that
length of time before this wheat can
become available for consumption in
the British Isles under present cir
cumstances.
On the whole, it appears today as
if the importing countries will need
about 100000 quarters, instead
OF 100000 quarters as originally
estimated, or at the rate of 1,13O,-
600 quarters per week. If only the
estima tes of the Canadian and the
United States governments could be
relied upon with absolute confidence
there need be no anxiety concerning
the possibility Of securing the So
100000 quarters predicted in the
foregoing paragraph, for even with
out any aid from Russia or the Bal
kan states, the exportable SURPRISES
of the two North American growers
alone would be sufficient to meet
these requirements, leaving out of
the calculation any quantities which
Australia, Argentina and India may
ship from their next crops, before
the season ends next July 81.
The crux of the problem is
whether the North American official
estimates can be absolutely relied
upon, and If so, whether the grow
ers there will market their surplus
In normal manner. The worlds
crop this season Is believed to be a
bigger one than ever raised before,
exceeding 500,OO0,00O quarters in
quantity, but, as we have pointed
out before, big crop does not neces-
sarily imply big available export
able surplus, for it only needs a dis
position on the part of growers to
withhold a moderate percentage of
their production to turn potential
plenty into actual dearth; for in
stance, if the growers this season
were to elect to withhold &c per
cent Of their production, the whole
of the estimated exportable surplus
would disappear, and there are many
reasons to lead one to believe that
growers will be tight holders this
season; the fact that he can obtain
his usual monetary return by SELL
ing half his crop at the present
double price is one of the reasons;
another is that he was entirely out
OF stock when the new crop came
upon the market; third Is that we
are in the fidst of the worlds great
est war, and experiences teach that
that premier cereal is always held
firmly by growers at such a time.
The ensuing two or three weeks may
suffice to show how the North
American farmers intend to behave.