The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1915-01-04
Rnsiness in the New Year.

their opinion as 10 the pTODdDIe COuTSc
Of volumes and values in trade, indus
try and finance. \ striking but not
astoni shing feature of the advent OF
1918 has been the widespread reluc-
lance to utter any forecasts of the sort.
Nevertheless. the justiflable assumption
Of continued American neutrality in the
war which is in progress abroad fur
uishes basis for confident belief that
1918 will be year of substantial bust
ness recovery in the United States,
This Is still a country OF great OPP
portunity. in some respects all the
greater because of the lamentable mis-
fortunes Of Europe, After the war
myriads in the Old Wsrld are going 20
turn longngly to the possibilities Of es'
tablishing homes in our land. and to-
day we have one hundred million OF the
most energetic and ambitious Of peO-
pies breathing the air OF freedom and
always fred with hope Of the future.
Never has our country suffered more
than temporary economic check or
setback. The record of our past and
the knowledge Of our vast unexpected
resources for growth are a guarantee
that there is future of unprecedented
expansion To prepare for. We can he
sure that there will he men with the
vision to see 1t, to point out the pros
pect of profit and start enterprise 60
ing toward 1t.
In the meantime the way has been
cleared for business betterment. sup
plies Of goods and materials in shops
and stores and mills, like the supplies
Of securities in brokers Offices, have
been reduced almost to Il bare nothing,
Prices have faHen In most directions
except in the case Of some agricultural
commodities. where advances have not
owed anything TO domestic scarcity.
The liquidation Of labor is an unrealiE-
able myth, but there has been large
liquidation of employment which wi !
not fail to make labor more efficient for
years to come than II has been for
years past. Hard times have been
| teaching lessons of thrift, and as re-
suit efficiency in the use of capital IS
I similarly assured
| Repleni shment is bound to he the or.
der Of the day in most lines of business.
! As an example Of what must take place
| IL is certain that the railroads will have
to place contracts for equipment and
work. The necessity of getting business
will compel successful efforts TO that
end. and sooner rather than later IL
will he perceived that the present is al
| excellent time To make contracts for
construction and development of every
kind. The level of general prices and
the state of labor, together with the
increasing ease Of the money market
are prime factors in an equation the
solution Of which is usually forward
business movement.
Especially does the situation in money
deserve to he optmi stically emphasized.
without recOunting the processes which
have conduced TO an unprecedented am
plitude of lending power by the banks,
il sufiiccs to say that there is no lack
Of credit capacity on the part of lend
crS to deter business ventures, There
is only lacking courage TO borrow AMI
a more confident willingness to lend
and these cannot long endure in face
Of the invctoratc habit Of idle money
TO seek occupation.
Our foreign trade promises TO attain
colossal proportions. The momentum
which business endeavor has acquired
I'm this field Is sure 10 communicate i'm
pulses 70 domestic trade and industry
and what Is more, the sustained growth
of foreign trade will be fostercd by the
provision Of funds to foreign countries
which will put and keep their indus
trial machinery in operation,
We have begun TO lend money abroad
not only to belligerents but to neutrals
We will do more OF this is the savings
Of enforced economy I'LL up the banks
and as our bankers learn better how I,
handle our new financial facilities. The
establishment of the Federal Reserve
banking system and the Leadership
taken by New York State in remodellins
and undermining its banking law hay,
inaugurated conditions which viii per
nit American finance to render thu
country's huge wealth more available
for use in the capital market than Il
mas ever been.
SO far as the unknown quantities 81
agriculture go il is far safer to coun
on good crop year than The contrary
The American farmer has shown wha
he can do in enlarging his production
aud never has so much attention beer
directed as now to the increase Of thu
output OF the farms.
Drawbacks are felt on account n
domestic political experiments with thu
orga nlzation and conduct OF business
: but the war has oyerdlscOunted then
for the time being. In addition the pc
ltical temper has changed. Public opin
ion, as the November elections Shove,
and as the abrupt reversal of policy b,
the Interstate Commerce Commission
has further demonstrated, no longe
indorses anything but really construc
tive political programme. II will no
be gulled by destructive programme
: which is merely labelled helpful.
As for the war, 1t has been elimi
, mated as an element Of stupendous SUI