The Birmingham age-herald., 1915-02-28
BIRMINGHAM TRUST. MONTHLY LETTER ON TRADE CONDITIONS
Many Factors Evidence a Steadily Improving Situa- ton, Especially in For
 eign and Domestic Sales

The general letter on trade condi- lions and business forecast for the month of March. s19i5s issued by Bir- mingham Trust and Savings company, Is as follows: .
 Diplomatic exchanges passing be- tween this country and England and this country and Germany are creating some business unrest and doubt It is not remarkable that during the pro- gress of such gigantic war the busi- ness men of neutral countries should keep an ear to the ground constantly, This is merely business caution. but the scout who keeps his ear to the ground all the time will not recon hotter many positions or make many reports. A reasonable caution Is to be commended but constant listen ing for the thunder of trouble is un- necessary.
 "The anticipation of trouble Is all most always more serious than the reaIization. Fright over the cotton sit uation caused the creation of the cot ton pool fund. The pool was dissolved because applications for loans were So few, demonstrating that the pool was probably unnecessary.
 ''The financial editor of one of our leading metropolitan publications stood before an audience sometime ago and tremb1ingly and fearfully out lined the possible consequences of demand on the part of Europe for inn mediate payment of our entire indebt- edness to her As less than per cent of that entire indebtedness was due only that amount could have been de- manded and such fears were ground. 1.o "a naFind settling our current obligations with out serious consequences and we are creating a credit balance with Europe at the rate of more than a billion Q year. If the foreign trade conditions for the remainder of this calendar year should continue as they have started Europe will either pay us during the year or owe us at the end of the year more than billion dollars. To offset this, she may if we force the prices Of American securities high enough, un- load those securities on which she has the opportunity to take 8 profit. 9th erwise she must settle with us in gold A careful following of stock market quotations and of large private sales of securities during the past few months gives no indication that Eu- ropean investors are dumping their American holdings and it is not req sonable to suppose that they will sell them until prices reach higher level The leading financial journal of Flu rope states: Instead of being debtor for immediate payments. America is rapidly becoming, if she has not all ready become, creditor for immediate N payments
 N January production of pig iron was \ ], ,601, ,00O tons compared with 1,o16,O00 Tn December and 1,S85000 in January of last year. The average price at all markets \ shows a new low record, but the tendency | together with steel.is toward an advance | The opening of February found 160 fur \ naces in blast compared with 146 a month N before.
 II "The increase shown in unified ton- mage of the Steel corporation at the close of last month is the first real tangible evidence of the gradual, but steady inn provement in steel prospects. The un- ! filled report showed 4,249,000 tons com v pared with 3,S39,000 the previous month land 4,614000 year ago. The improve ihent in steel is, however, very definite Has while mills were operating on the av- |ierage at not quite B per cent of capacity Ethree months ago. they are now operat- Xng at nearly 60 per cent rate. Railroad +brders and inquiries are showing a week. |lE increase and the building demand is |hletter. These things coupled with good XSemand from abroad for manufactured Imachinery and other products of steel are creating daily a more satisfactory condl- hion Some considerable orders for rail- way equipment have been received from the governments of Europe already and other inquiries are out
 "As the production of tin is almost nor nal and consumption at a decreased rate. the visible supply of tn must increase huring the year and the tendency of the price will be downward. January deliv- eries total 2300 tons again 3600 the year before. Visible supply at the opening of |February was 13,9J tons compared with ,SS6 the month before. s
 Prices Higher Than Before War
 "The production of gold at the Rand uinines in January was 7l5,000 fine ounces vLompared with 695,000 in December and |l}52 600 a year ago. Commodity prices have |Itontinued to advance since November and Hire nearly as high as they were in De- Member, 1913. Prices on the average are Higher than at any time last year except turing the first 10 weeks of the war
 Money in circulation per capita on Feb
 uaiy was s3s.S4 compared with ss5
 ear ago. On January 21, 1915, the popu- atior of the United States passed the D0 0000, 600 mark.
 Cotton exports in January were 1,3.2,-
 10 bales compared with 1,052,000 year
 go and imports of cotton were 39.0Co lales compared with 19,000 year ago. Domestic consumption of cotton was only b9 600 bales compared with 51,O00 year |go and stocks of cotton in manufactur- Ing establishments on February 1 were lnly 1,5l5.00 bales against 1,765Oo0 year ko. Active cotton spindles during Jan
 hry numbered 30,565.000 compared with
 ,096, 900 year ago. We are not using
 he usual amount of our own cotton, but
 Ilr cotton exports are, at present above
 Eerage.
 While in the tremendous increase in
 kports of manufactured goods, we find