New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1915-06-10
TIME ELEMENT IN WAR
A Circumstance That Confirms Pro
lessor Usher's Argument.
To the Editor Of The Tribune.


ject, but for the contrary reason. In answer
to Professor Usher's argument that we can
most effectively defend our rights against
Germany, if we have to defend them! by
continuing exactly as we are and selling
munitions to the Allies rather than using
them ourselves, the statement is broadly
made that we are quite capable OF making
all the ammunition we need for ourselves
while continuing to supply the Allies Pro-
fessor Ushcr's critics entirely ignore the
time element in the problem, which is the
one element of all that Professor Usher
declared to be supremely important.
"The Germans must win the war decisively
within the next year or two" said Professor
Usher. cor they will decisively lose it. They
must win the war before it comes to a test
Of endurance. In that they will infalibly be
beaten" Professor Usher further points out
that the efficiency of the present defensive
campaign of the Allies, to say nothing OF an
offensive campaign, will depend entirely upon
the continuance of the stream of ammuni-
ton. equipment and food which the United
States is sending them every week, and that
the assistance of the United States is vital
to the enemies of Germany. Nobody has
attempted to dispute this fact. The conten-
ton Of those who seek to discredit Professor
/ Usher's article is that the United states Is
/ bic enough and resourceful enough to equip
whatever fighting forces it might need IN case
of war with Germany and, in addition 10
| that keep up the business with the Allies
! But could we do that? All available evil
dence proves that we could not Our capacity
I 70 hatn
larged daily. but have it upon the best
obtainable authority that it will be three
months at least before our factories can
begin TO deliver any appreciable part OF the
huge orders which have recently been an
nounced. Our factories which are normally
equipped for making rifles, shells, ammuni-
ton and powder already busy with or
ders now in hand. For this $500 100000
worth of business these factories must IN
crease their facilities and others must equip
themselves 10 begin an entirely new line OF
business. The extraordinary volume OF the
new line of trade has fallen first upon the
machine toolmakers, whose products must first
be available before ammunition can be made.
1t has suddenly developed that there are lot
sufficient skilled machinsts in the country to
handle all this business In the course of
time this labor shortage can be overcome by
the training of new men, but not at once.
You cannot expect a cream separator factory,
| for instance, to transform itself overnight
into an arsenal. 1t lacks both the machinery
and the men.
When we realize that the Allies, in the
face of their urgent need for ammunition,
are forced to place their orders subject to
delivery months hence we have the best
possible proof as TO what the real situation
is Six months at least, and more, probably
eight months would be needed for am fac
tory to equip itself to begin the manIfact-
uring of rifles. For cartridges nine months
is a reasonable time limit. Even at best the
shipments of shrapnel, cartridges, shells ana
rifles to Europe cannot possibly reach their
maximum until the end Of the current year.
Should VIC appropriate these supplies for our
own uses, thus leaving the Allies with 10
American ammunition for ten months or
more. it is impossible to escape the con-
cuson that the effect upon the Allies would
be most disastrous, if not absolutely fatal
Then, again, Professor Ushcr's critics have
wholly eliminated the question of quantities.
1t is assumed that if were to take up
arms against Germany we would require an
army of million men. To supply such An
army, according to credible military esti-
mates, we would need at the beginning of
hostilities sO00,OOO,000 cartridges, 100000
rifles, 1000 machine guns, 1000 field guns
and 100000 rounds of field gun ammunition,
all of which might be gone at the md Of
the first month of hostlities, and each month
thereafter would call for like quantities.
According to carefully prepared article
in the current "Worlds Work. as our plants
stood year ago it would have taken the
combined efforts of the then existing gov
ornamental and private plants more than ten
years to turn out this original monthly
allowance of artillery ammunition, and, of
course, the same allowance of time to re-
plenish the supply each month. From the
same source We learn that the countrys
capacity for manufacturing rifle cartridges
year ago was less than one-hundredth of
the needs of such an army while engaged in
campaigning; that England to-day, in order
to meet situation similar to ours, although
not so bad, has increased her facilities tor
manufacturing war munitions TO sixteen
times their capacity of year ago. The con-
clusion is that if England, after expanding
her facilities sixteen times, still needs our
assistance, our less extensive facilities Of a
year ago would have to be increased fifty
times before we could supply our own needs
alone. That we have done nothing of the
sort is all too certain, and it is equally GER
tain that il would take many months to DO
it. In England ten months required to
multiply the manufacturing capacity by six
teen.
Professor Usher's critics doubtless could
show that some time we could begin TO make
ammunition enough for the whole world, if
necessary, but they only make themselves
ridiculous by treating of the subject in utter
disregard of the two considerations on which
the whole problem hinges, those of time and
quantity. JONATHAN A. RAWSON, Jr.
New York, June 3. 1915.
Prussia the Teacher.