The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1915-05-24
FINANCIAL REVIEW
OF The PAST WEEK
Wall Street Disposed to Show
Confidence in Outlook
for Values.
FACTORS OF UNCERTAINTY

last week was characterized ny u koou
deal OF stability and prevailing Arm
ness. From a state OF dulness In the
early part OF the week II developed
a tendency toward moderately increased
activity. while at the same time rising
tendencies were displayed in the long
list OF specialties. The Wall street
record Is particularly interesting at the
moment. because the values quoted there
are the most sensitive Of all registers
Just now. and while Wall street has
not been making forecasts OF clear
weather ahead 1t has been giving fur
Their indications that affairs are In good
shape for all contingencies.
Under the circumstances OF prolonged
uncertainty respecting the outcome OF
the memorable note which Washington
recently addressed TO Berlin It could
be said that the action OF the stock
market lends itself to a variety of en-
c%ouraging differences. One unquestion-
ably seems to be that the share list
Is In an exceedingly strong technical
position, which would not be possible II
It did no, correspond with the trade. in
dusirial and banking situation through
out the country.
In the liquidation which swept over
the market In the first half OF the month
elements OF structural weakness were
eliminated and close contact was es-
tablished between the level OF quoted
values and the general business situa-
ton. speculative tests disclosed lately
that offerings OF stocks were scanty.
while. on the other hand. there seemed
10 be a public attitude OF willingness
TO make purchases as soon as the domi-
nant international factor took more den-
mite form. Such waiting attitude
customar ily inspires speculative restless
ness TO anticipate prospective demands,
and II was partly this and partly the
evidence OF technical soundness which
explained the forward movement OF
stocks in the las; few days.
In other respects there seemed TO be
expressed through the stock market "a
mood of public confidence In the out
look for business volumes and values
beneath all the immediate uneaslness
over the pending international difhcul-
ties. In the financial community and
In the business community alike there
is a sturdy conviction that forces have
been set free In the last few months
which are working for economic re-
covery here and are bound to assert
themselves in almost any event. In
uetu IneTe WAS tOWdTu ~ Siu VI 'aFN
week a speculative disposition to take
the view that no matter % the Wash
ington- Berlin negotiations ended the
most unfavorable result had been dis
counted.
This. however. was not q notion which
commanded any widespread or authori-
tative support. and Wall Street opinion
as to the near future was tempered by
a prudent regard for adverse possib!li-
ties. even though they might prove only
temporarily unfavorable or troublesome.
Consider ration was still engaged with the
forthcoming German reply TO the Wash
irgton note. and even the experimental
hardihood OF speculation had to admit
that the uncertainties in this regard
must be recognized.
There are on occasion matters which
interfere with the continuing marketwise
expression OF factors which are con-
trolling in the long run and such an oc-
casion was furnished by the sinking of
the Lusitania with It's train OF events,
Wall Street has had only to look away
from the hare list TO see proof OF this
In the halt apparently called in the pro-
cess of picking up which trade and
industry began this spring 10 exhibit, a
halt matching the check administers
to the stock market process OF discount
ing improvement.
Outside the trade and industry tc
which war contracts have been con
trlbuting there has been "A p~erceptible
slowing down OF reviving activities
Competent men OF affairs could hardly
think otherwise than that the chance OF
a change in the country's status of neu-
trality in the European war introduced
a new factor into the business reckon
ing. Should the change actually Occur
readjustments would be involved. moi
In IL necessary to go into details OF
Government bono issues, new taxes. ex'
ternal trade arrangement and money
market seQuels to make the point plain
In the present case there is every war
rant for assuming that enterprise woulo
go actively and profitably forward or
the new basis. but continued forward
movement could hardly fail to be i'm
peded by the contingency of new factors
Wall streets Hopeful Reasoning
To some extent the constructive fea
lures Of the stock market last week wer'
owing to the tenor Of Washington ant
Berlin advices. but more especially e
the drift OF financial opinion and senti,
ment as to the probable issue OF tn,
momentous communications between
Washington and Berlin. Early in tn,
week conjecture took or a hopefulnes'
which II recovered more strongly towarC
the week end. although The causes o
Il we're more argumentative than In tn,
nature OF ascertained facts. The fresh
strain put o. Germany by the italian
developments served 10 explain the post
ponement OF the Berlin answer TO Wash
pington. but as the reasoning OF the inan
clal district ran, the delay was OF favor
able omen. The deduction drawn wa
that no postponement Of reply woult
have been necessary unless the German
Government was anxious to find a wa,
to avo trouble with the United States
II still remained 70 be shown how tn,
way out OF international difficulty wa
to be found. but Wall Street conclusion
were not pessimistic on his score. ]
was not supposed that Germany woult
propose any abandonment of it's sub
marine warfare. but II was thought tina
a modification OF II as affecting tn
rights Of neutrals would be offered whicl
might in the end prove acceptable. TIL
basic belief of the financial communit
was that Germany could not be desper
ate enough to risk a wide breach witt
neutral nations, although this belief wa
qualified somewhat by the blunderin,
manner In which military necessity
had been construed at Berlin ever sine
last July.
Sober Judgment in this country ha
not been able TO see any p%reponderan nc
OF advantage which could accrue I
either side In the European conniC
from a formal change OF American neu
trali,y. but the contrary. on this groun
the conclusion was reached tina tn
German answer to Washington woul
evince a desire TO maintain friendly re-
lations with the United States. In tim
case II was argued that Washingto
would not Cloae the door an any onno,