South Bend news-times. (South Bend, Ind.) 1913-1938, 1915-03-01
WAR NEWS STILL
CONTROLS MARTS
Advent of Spring with Expect
alton of New Military Moves
HaStenS More Acute Situa-
ton in Financial Circles.
Special to The News-Times.

cial markets of this country are still
controlled by war news.-the strain
of the desperate European conflict be-
ing daily more and more manifest.
Now that spring is at hand, fresh mil
itary activities must be expected: the
period of deadlock is obviously draw
ing 70 close, and preparations siren
uously pushed all winter by both sides
are Fastening a much greater and
more acute crisis. Hence action more
decisive than hitherto experienced
cannot be far distant The intense
financial strain abroad was very
Sharply reflected in the recent collapse
or exchange, from which there has
been only a partial recovery. In this
country the serious arrangement of
our foreign trade resulting from the
war has produced a big excess of ex-
ports which, though fiattering at first
sight is adding to the general compli-
cations. In settlement for our large
exports We must take either gold or
securities, or else grant extensive
credits until more convenient circum-
stances for settlement arrive. Gold
we do not need, because we have an
ample supply on hand and regularly
produce a surplus for export LONDON
needs gold vastly more than we do
and not embarrass London; although
considerable sums have been engaged
at Ottawa for New York and more
may follow. At the same time we are
taking considerable amounts of Amer
lean securities from foreign holders,
and under present conditions may con-
tnue this absorption if the induce
ments are sufficiently great Before
the war is over, some very important
shifts will occur in our foreign ex-
changes. Remittances abroad will
necessarily decrease owing to reduced
foreign holdings as well as to reduced
profits and dividends. Tourist travel
abroad will be practically nil this
coming season, and the two or three
hundred million dollars which Amer
leans usually spend every year in for
eign countries will be largely kept at
home; incidentally to the advantage
of American railroads and hotels.
There will also be a material decline
in immigration, which has already
fallen heavily and is a factor of some
consequence in our international trade
balance.
Foreign Trade Affected.
Our foreign trade plainly shows the
effects of the war. In January the
total exports Of merchandise were
$500. 900. or $63,SOO,O 900 ahead of
last year. About $44,O00,G00 of this
increase was credited to breadstuffs
alone and $3,O0O,00O to meats. In addi-
ton there was a large increase in ship
ments of war materials. Some i'm
portant losses, however, had to be
taken into consideration, including q
decrease of about $4,000. 900 in cotton
and $2,O0O,00O in mineral oils. Janu-
ary's total exports have been only
twice exceeded; in October, 1913, and
again in November, 1912. Our export
trade, though satisfactory in volume,
has been seriously deranged; and the
heavy shrinkages have only been COM
pensated for by shipments of food
stuffs and war materials. The demand
for the latter is liable TO sudden fluc-
tuations Should the Dardanelles be
opened allowing the free expectation
of Russian grain, that must inevitably
have an important effect upon our own
exports of wheat; and when peace be-
gins to dawn, we may expect drop
in the orders for the munitions of war
which have hitherto usefully filled the
gap in foreign orders. In imports
their was also a heavy loss, the total
for January being 100000, de-
crease of $50, 100000 compared with
the same month Of last year. This
left an excess in exports of S145,5O0
600, compared with $300.O0O,OO0 a
year ago. A more reliable indication
commerce will, however be found in
the country's record of exports and
imports for the past seven months, or
since the war began. Our total eX
ports within this period have been
or S1S7.000,0 600 less
than the same time last year. I'm
ports were $3.50, 900. OF S137, 0OO,-
600 less than a year ago. Here is a
loss in exports and imports COM
bined of $324,OOO.OOO in the short
space of seven months. AS a result Of
these fluctuations the excess of eX-
ports for the seven months was only
$500, 900. compared with $454,-
100000 last year and S430, 100000 the
year before. The fact that the ex-
cess of exports has dwindled $4,000
600 in the last seven months is some
what of a surprise. How far this de-
rangement of our foreign trade will
extend, it is impossible TO estimate.
Much damage and confusion has al
ready been done. but we are likely to
remain more fortunate than any other
nation. as long as our ability TO ship
fOOdstuffs. cotton and war materials
is unchecked any StOppage Of these
through an embargo or other causes,
will add to the arrangement which al
ready exists in our foreign inter-
course.
Business at Home Not Satisfactory.
The business situation at home is
not satisfactory. Only in the agricul-
tural districts is there any normal ac-
tivity and genuine hopefulness- In
other parts of the country there is a
sane determination to make the best
OF things and keep cool under irritat-
ing conditions. But war has so dis
turbed credit and trade as 10 impair
confidence, and no real improvement
in the latter respect can be expected
until the prospects for peace i'm
prove. An early termination Of the
war would undoubtedly be a powerful
stimulus for business recovery in the
United States. At present business is
being conducted on restricted lines.
Clearing house returns show dimin-
ished activity in all parts OF the coun-
try. unless it be in the middle north
west Railroad earnings are also un-
satisfactory, the total for roads re-
porting thus far in February showing
a decrease of over 20 per cent. The
improvement previously reported in
the steel industry is well maintained.
and production is nov estimated 10
be running at about s. per cent of
total capacity The bulk Of new or
Il