The Washington herald., 1915-05-04
Future Trade Relations with Germany.

The government has just issued forecast OF
the state of our foreign trade. far Germany
is likely to play any part in it, after the close OF
the present war. The forecast appears to be
based upon various confidential reports received
from consular agents Of the United States; and
it is to the general effect that after the war Ger
many far from being disabled will more
be the strongest competitor OF the United States.
The German people will be more than anxious to
make money iii order to repair the losses of the
war and their competition will be more acute than
ever. II is pointed out that terrible the war
has been 1t has not been fought at least only
to very limited extent. upon German territory.
There has been some invasion OF East Prussia
brt the German manufacturing and industrial
ccntcrs have been left untouched The banking
and commercial world OF Germany is as fit as it
was and if the docs not bring success
TO German efforts to conquer the world by force
OF arms. it may make Germany'S apncarance in
the commercial field moro formidable than it ever
was.
We wonder ii all this proenos tication is justi-
ned by the facts. We very much doubt it. 1t
docs not seem to take into account all the per-
mancnt harm done to Germany by the fact that
' asst numbers OF German workingmcn in the prime
OF life and OF physical usefulness have either been
he drag their country rather than a help to
il. While the has been in progress those
who have been lett at home to do tho necessary
work in manufactures have been getting wages
in some instances five or six times as high as
were formerly paid to them. VIII they be will
ing to content themselves with the old small scale
OF wages when the battles arc over The ndica-
tionS arc. drawn from the experience OF the past.
that they will not be contentcd. Wages will be
higher in Germany after the close OF the war.
and not only will the cost OF production be in
creased from this but from heavier taxes
The will leave Germany bearing burdens and
in exhausted condition. She will be in
good shape compete vigorously in an economic
warfare with anybody.
1t must be remembered that the industrial
prosperity OF Germany docs not date back, like |
hat OF Great Britain and France. many hundreds !
u years. 1t is matter OF comparatively recent |
growth and il has been carried on TO large extent
" borrowed money. After the war. whether Ger
many is a winner or loser will she find it "a easy
o borrow money as she did bciurcs As>urcdlv |
'hc will not. She will be pressed down by an !
,normou> debt which will probably make the !
ncomc tax in Germany higher relatively than any
where else in the world the hospitals OF the coun-
~ Will be filled and overfowing Lie in Germany
will become expensive and difficult and tho citizens
ii the country Will probably enigra,c by the thou
and>. 1t will not be until tho coming OF another
cneration, and perhaps not even then. that Ger
many will be a. formidable a business competitor
II the United States OF any other nation, as she
vas before the war.
Ii is probably true that orr own country will
nly slowly occupy the trade avenues which Ger
many has rclnquiShcd, particularly in South
america and similar countries This j. bccausc
he>c countries to us from trade point
i view and VIC canno; readily adapt our methods
t doing business to their necessities. At the same
inc VIC do not think that there be any doubt
hatcl CT that the war, whatever it, result will put
germany back score OF wears trade COMPETE
n There is rtclligiblc economic theory on
Lch il he calculated that Germany will not
9 crippled ior wears 10 como from what happened
the years OF our Lord Ipi4-I0I5