Valdez daily prospector., 1915-04-14
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 14, 1915.
THE SITUATION IN COPPER.

Six months ago the price for cop per was about lie. per lb., unsold stocks were large, the big producers had reduced to fifty per cent. basis and pessimism reigned. Not even the most optimistic in the trade could see anything cheerful in the outlook, and the common idea was that if the war should be prolonged beyond six months nothing but disaster was to be expected. Today we see copper above 15c., stocks of refined copper practically nothing and the big pro- ducers on a seventy-five per cent. ba- sis. What was the reason for the error in the forecasts of six months ago?
 It was simply that the military re- quirements for copper were grossly underestimated. The crisis in copper loss of our principal customer-Ger- many. It was not considered that any probable demand for military purposes would be anywhere near the normal German demand for peace full purposes. It was indeed foreseen that Germany's exports of copper manufactures would be replaced by exports from other countries to which we should supply the copper as pre- viously we had supplied it to Ger many; but even allowing for that it was considered by the big producers to be best to shorten sail and reduce production by about fifty per cent. This was wise, although in looking backward we are able to see how mistaken was the diagnosis of all the doctors. Yet as things were then maintenance of the production at the July rate or general curtailment of only twenty-five per cent might have precipitated the price to level far lower than that to which it ac- tually fell and might have led to disasters before readjustments could be effected.
 About Nov. 1 large buying began and has continued ever since, with but slight Interruptions. This has not reflected any noteworthy ill, crease in purely domestic consump. tion, but has been chiefly for mili. tary purposes, cakes, ingots and wire bars being shipped directly abroad, or else to domestic manufacturers and thence abroad in manufa ctured forms. Not long ago there appear ed about contemperaneously Ger. man statement that the copper con. sumption of the German army was at the rate of about 100000 metric tons per annum; and a British estimate that the Austro-German consumption must be at the rate of 112,000 long tons per annum. Germany and Aus ria-Hungary are not obtaining their copper from the outside, but the fig ures cited are indices that the cop per consumption of the Allies is at least as great, and their copper is being supplied chiefly by America. The opinion is held in well-informed quarters that all of these estimates are too low rather than too high.
 Besides the buying for domestic consumption and for foreign consump- tion, military and industrial, there has been some speculative buying on mar ginned transactions anticipatory of the ending of the war and some ad vance buying for domestic consump- tion. Altogether the absorption of copper during the last six months has reduced the stocks at the disposal of American refiners to a very small quantity, and it is probable that there has also been reduction in the stocks of blister copper. While there are no longer statistics about these, the statements of the refiners may be accepted freely, inasmuch as the advancing price and the willingness to increase production are confirm atory of them. Indeed, it is possible
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