The sun., 1915-03-28

that Russia will neither pay money
nor surrender territory. beg his
Majesty to consider that such an an
nouncement means absolutely nothing
when Saghalien In already In the
hsnds Of japanese. II on such theory
the war Ia persevered in no one can
foreteil the result, but the merged
representatives Of the Powers most
friendly to Russia assure me that the
continuance NJ the war will probably
mean the loss not merely Of Saghalien
but OF Eastern Siberia, and II after .
year Of struggle this proves true. ,hen
any peace which came could only
come on terms which would indicate
q real calamity.
Most certainly I think II will De .
bad thing for Japan 20 60 on with the
war. but think IL will be far worse
thing for Russia. There is now a fair
chance Of getting peace on honorable
terms. and II seems to me that II will
be a dreadful thing for Russia and the
civilized world IL the chance is thrown
away. My advices are that the pleni-
potentiaries at Portsmouth have come
TO substantial agreement on every
point except tho money question and
the question OF Saghalien.
Let II now he announced that a.
regards these two points peace shall
be made on the basis of the retro
cession OF the north half Of Sashalien
70 Russia on payment of sum OF
redemption money by Russia, the
amount Of This redemption money and
the amount TO be paid for the Russian
prisoners to be settled nv furrher
negotiations. This does not commit
the Russian Government as 20 what
sum shall be paid. leaving II open TO
further negotiation.
"If Il IA Impossible for Russia and
Japan 10 come to an agreement on
this sum they might possibly call in
the advice OF. say, some high French
or German Official appointed by or with
the consent OF Russia and some Eng
lish official appointed by or with the
consent OF Japan. and have these latter
then report TO the negotistors. This,
seems 20 me would IA an entirely
honorable way OF settling tho difficulty
cannot, OF course guarantee that
Iapan will agree 20 this proposal. but
+ hts Majesty agrees 70 II I Will
ndeavor 20 get the japanese Govern
nent 20 do likewise.
II earnestly hope mat this cable
= mine can receive nj. Matestys
,ttention before the envoys meet to-
morrow, and cannot too strongly say
hat feel that peace now may prevent
lntold calam.ties IN the future Let
ne repeat that IN 'his proposal ] sus-
gee. rhat neither Russia nor Japan
10 anything but face accomplished
facts. and that DO not specify or
attempt 20 specify the amount 90 he
! paid as redemption money for the
north half ~ SRGhalisn 20 be settled
by further negotiation. I fear mat =
these terms are rejected 1. may now
he possible that Japan viii give mp the
idea OF making peace or OF ever get
ting money. and che viii decide 70 take
and 20 keep Saghslien and Harbin and
the whole Siberian Manchurisn Rail-
way. and this, ur ocirse, would mean
that she would take Eastern siberia
Such a los. 20 Russia would. IN my
Judgment, NJ a disaster ~ portentou.
size. and earnestly desire 10 save
Russia from such q risk. II peace Is
made on the terms have mention ~
Russia Ia left at the end of this WI
substantially unharmed me nstions
honor and ,ntcres- saved. and the re-
suit ~ what Russians have done In
Asia since the day. OF Ivan the Ter
rihle unlmpsired.
But II peace IL now rejected and
IL Japan decides that II In better shs
will give up the idea OF obtaining any
redemption money or any other sum
no matter how small, tho military
situation Is such that there IL al least
good chance. and on estimate ot
most outside observers a strong prob.
ability. that though Japan will have
To make heavy Hacrifices she will vet
take Harbln, Vladivostok and eastern
siberia; and II this is once done th'
probabilities are overwhelming tha'
she could never be d!slodged
Il cannot t,-p strongly state my con,
viCtiOn that while peace IN accordance
with the suggestions above outlined 1.
earnestly to he desired from m,
standpoint ~ the whole world anC
from the standpoint -of both combs
,auts. yet that. far above all. II Il
chiefly 20 Russia's interest and per
haps to her vital interest that II shoulC
come In thts way and At this time,
-THEopoRE ROOSEVELT"
In 1911 7 visited Count Witte sgsir
in 81 Petersburg, In the course o
one Of my conversation, with him h
expressed his IDEAS about the arbitra
tion treaties suggested then Wv Prest
dent Taft. and spoke without restrain
about universal peace and disarma
ment, His illuminstive views on thi
subject are perhaps now or create
Significance than even at that time.
1.-The proposed arbitration treaty 4
IN principle not now idea" he said
The ideal OF peace In as old a. Chris
tianity. II not older. II is older thai
nineteen oenturies. and yet what littl
progress II has made! Tho real en-
sence Of Christianity Is based on peace
on the prohibition OF murder. 7 an
with all my heart In favor of arbitra
ton az an ideal but II In difficult 4
believe that II can now be- applied II
our life, that II Ia not merely yagu
though beautiful dream.
"As I study. however. the cost an
ithe tremendous burden Of arme
peace, for which all nations are striv
ing even more now that arbitratio
and peace are talked about. as
scrutnize tho meaning of arrne
peace. OF standing armies and nav'e'
I am wondering whether armed peac
IL not much worse than war Thi
may sound strange hut Il Is truo
we look into the matter moro deepl
than the people who talk OF pesc