The Lancaster news. [volume] (Lancaster, S.C.) 1905-current, 1915-09-14

beg space in your columns, Miss
Editor, to present a subject Of the
utmost Importance to all our South
most thoughtful minds but that the
South's cotton crop is going to be
worth $3.50, 100000 to the men who
own 1t next spring, but it is worth
only s50O,00O,0OO to the producers
at present prices-and it is to save
to Southern growers and to our
Southern country this extra quarter
OF billion dollars that the united
energies of press and people should
now be directed. The fundamental
facts seem to me to be clear.
I. Cotton, even though the new
crop of 1915 has started coming on
the market. is still selling on the
basis of prices fixed by last years
1900, ,000-bale crop.
2. These prices must soon be ad-
justed, however. to fit the conditions
of 10000, ,OOO-bale crop Cor proba-
bly, only a 100000 or 100000
bale CROP and this adjusted price
ought at the very least to reach II
cents pound for middling
AS briefly now, as clear argument
will permit. l wish to point out and
emphasize the truth of these state
mentS.
1.-The Worlds Demands Justify
Twelve Cents.
Assuming even 10000, ,OOO-bale
yield of Southern cotton this year
Iand it will probably be less,) this
years world production will be
100000 bales short of the worlds
conservatively estimated consump-
ON during the coming twelve
months. That Is to say, the worlo
viii consume every pound of this
years crop and 100000 bales of
the present surplus.
Secretary Hester Of the New Or
years Southern production (not the
commercial crop at 1904 900 bales. +,
The United States government esti-
mate (16, 6,134,93O plus 791,4 lint
ers) is .394-practically H.
600, 900 bales. This was over 2,O0o,-
900 bales in excess of the 1913 crop. |
Now what happened with this |
bumper 1900, ,0OO-bale crop in |
spite of all the demoralized condi- |
tions of trade and finance-the crop
OF which it was said last fall we
should not export 100000 bales' |
The facts are that the world used |
so much of it that the total worlds |
visible supply of all cotton in mid
summer this year was only 5,435,-
16S bales against 3,522,276 bales |
year before. In other words. with |
q 1900, O,OOO-bale Southern crop to |
handle. the worlds visible supply in
creased only 100000 bales. What |
is going to happen this year then,
with the South Offering 5.OOO.O 900 or /
100000 bales less-and the pro-
iuction of other countries also de-
creased? And this query brings mo
70 another point:
1.-THE Worlds Crop Prospects
Justify Twelve Cents.
Mr.. w p. G. Harding of the fed
eral reserve board early in the sum-
mer secured reports from consular
officials all over the world indicat.
ing a total cut in the worlds cotton |
crop this year of 100000 bales. |
EgvDt and India reporting radical
reductions in acreage" Since that |
time the prospects have further &c |
eIined
But even if we accept this early
over-estimate of the crop we see that
if last years crop, being 5.0Un. 900
bales bigger than this years, vet
increased the surplus only 2.00A COO
bales. then this years crop will
leave 100000 bale deficit-to
De drawn from the surplus.
The facts are, however, that even
. 100000 bale estimate for the
Sonth now seems too high. This is
not simply my view. but the view of
many experts. including so conserva-
tive and competent an authority as
The New York Journal of Commerce,
which has just declared that in view
Of present conditions, "the yield
seems likely to be nearer 10, ,00O, 900
than 100000 bales" And now
zones The Wall Street Journal itself
quoting William S. Halliburton, of
Daniel O'Dell C Co., as saying: "The