The Washington herald., 1915-01-16
The Business Outlook for 1915.


business history of the twelve months just ended
and the business outlook for the twelve months tc
come. We join with our fellow citizens in thi:
Itrend of thought and, without entering upon the
difficult and dangerous path of financial prophecy
we yet beg to offer our views upon this very in,
teresting subject
1 We are of the opinion that the chief ground
for hope as to business results in the year 1915
lies in the severe economics that have been prac-
ticed in our country for many years in the i'm
mediate past and enforced with extreme rgor in
1914. If the unalterable lesson of history means
anything at ALL it means that it is in such periods
OF money saving that country becomes rich.
People naturally think the is the case, but
a little reflection shows that the truth is we
state it. The country has been slowing down and
putting brake upon enterprise of every kind ever
since 1907 and the cumulative effect of such a
repression of activity must become visible before
very long. Nearly every now in business life
can remember the hard times which ended with
the year 1906 But it is now seen that all those
years of hard times only the preparation for
the era of prosperity which followed
On the other hand, we are sincerely OF the
opinion that the most unfavorable indication that
exists for the future lies in the operation of our
new tariff law. AS a general proposition, we think
has been built up by protective tariff To cut
down this tariff by any such mighty stroke was
dealt in the Underwood law has had much the
same effect upon our industry or upon a good
part Of it, as would be dealt by blow which cut
down a tree into which a man had climbed 1t
was probably high time two years ago for a
moderate revision OF the customs duties they
then stood But what took place i'm
moderate revision of these duties. Our Demo-
cratic friends do not seem to understand that it
is really and truly the fact that a large number
of articles and goods produced in this country
have to be sold here at a somewhat higher price
than do foreign articles OF the same class, be-
cause the cost OF labor here is much greater than
it is in foreign countries.
Every intelligent person understands the theory
of free trade. 1t is that if the people of
try want the people of another country to buy
goods from them, they must in turn buy something
from the people of that other country; and natur
ally this reciprocal trade involves an exchange of
certain goods, which country produce
cheaper for goods of a different class which the
other country can produce cheaper. But it is also
plain that where the goods produced by the two
countries are OF exactly the same sort free trade
between the countries means and means nothing
else but equalization of wages between the
countries concerned in the transaction. To make
an application Of the matter, the Underwood tariff
bill meant, in large number of manufacturing in
dustries in the United States, reduction of the
wages of the men and women employed in the
industries.
The untoward results of the Underwood bill
began to make themselves apparent a little more
than year ago. We believe that had it not been
for the war in Europe the actual business mot
Financially depression in this country in the last
year would have been more pronounced than it
was, and would have caused great deal more dis
tress. The war has brought distinct loss to the
United States in its arbitrary interruption of
cotton trade; but the cotton trade riding for
fall in the production by the South of three huge
crops OF cotton in succession, which made
decline in the price of raw cotton necessary, war
or no war If there had been no war the fall in
cotton prices in 1914 might not have been as
severe as it was, but great fall must have oc-
Cured under any circumstances; and from the ef
fects OF it the South must in a natural way,
that is by producing less cotton in 1915 and by
divcrsifying its agricultural products. Meantime,
financial help will be freely offered the South and
there is every reason to think that 1915 will be
a better business year for the people below Mason
and Dixon's line than was its predecessor.
Conversely, the war has caused the export from
our shores of greater amount OF wheat and
brcadstuffs than has taken place in any year in
the present generation, and export too, at very
high prices. The purchases by Europe in this
country of foodstuffs and general munitions OF
war have served to check decidedly, the adverse
trade balance against which the Underwood
tariff started running AS regards the future and
looking at the matter from highly selfish point
of view, it seems very probable that high price
for wheat will prevail in this country throughout
1915. If the war should end tomorrow the pro-
duction of wheat in Europe in 1915 will still be
away below the yearly average. Foreign pur-
chases of the article in the United States must,
therefore. continue to be large for many months,
perhaps for year more, to come.
We think it is the feeling of those in posi-
ton to Judge most accurately that while the war
in Europe may last during the present winter, it
is not likely to be prolonged into another win
ter. Perhaps it would be too much to say that
there is general feeling that the will end in
the spring. At any rate, we do not ourselves
believe that the war will last more than a few
months longer; and reasons for this belief are
that financial and physical exhaustion will bring
it to an end. 1t is plain to everybody first,
that Germany cannot hope to gain what she set
out to accomplish by the war, and, secondly, that