The Washington times., 1915-04-28
IS. PANAMA CANAL
ALREADY A FAILURE
BECAUSE OF WAR?
Authorities Admit Tonnage
Through Uncle Sans Big
Ditch Is Below Anticipation.
BY JUDsoN C. WELLIvER.

Is the Panama Canal proving traffic
failure?
Has it secured as much business. IN
the eight months Of it's operation. as
was expected? Will its first year be
satisfactory?
Canal authorities are not disposed to
SRanmit themselves to generalizations
based on the brief operation Of the big
ditch. They point to the extraordinary
conditions prevailing in the commercial
world. as justification for the conciu-
sion that traffic has been less than.
under peace conditions. it should have
been.
Certain it is that tonnage passed
through the canal has not nearly meas
ured up to anticipations thus far. The
canal has in one month since its open
ing earned the cost Of operation and
maintenance. In March 1t earned $780,
900. while estimated costs were $425,0 900.
In no month has the traffic reached
a half-million of TONS but in October 1t
passed 100000 tons. and has increased
slowly since. The rate. of increase would
have to be sharply augmented in order
that the average for the first year Of
operation-ending August Is. 19l6-may
equal a half million tons a month.
Careful Studies Made.
Before the canal was opened. very
careful studies were made Of the pros
pective traffic; the official one being by
Prof. Emory R. Johnson, of the Uni
versity Of Pennsylvania. His calcula-
ton suggested that the canal might do
as much as 10000, 900 tons business the
first year. though Prof. Johnson was
careful not to commit himself to speci-
fic predictions for particular periods.
Instead of 100000. the total for the
half that amount.
Prof. Johnson. making what he de-
clared to be a conservative estimate.
calculated that by 1925. that is, the end
Of it's first decade of operation, the
canal should be handling 100000 tons
annually. That amount would, at S120
per ton tolls produce s20,400,OOO. Thus
the canal would be earning 4 per cent
interest on an investment Of 100000
900. and S3,400.000 to meet maintenance
CEsts; in other words, it would be just
about at the self-supporting point.
from Cnat tlfne forward BfO1. JOhn-
son seemed pretty confident Of a strong
and steady increase Of business. He
arrives at this from study Of the traf-
fic history of the Suez. 500" Kaiser
Wilhelm, Manchester and other great
waterways. He calculated that the Suez
ditch would be carrying over 20, 900 900
tons in 1915, and near 34.000,000 by
1925.
Doubt Felt Now.
The question begins inevitably to be
discussed. whether these anticipations
were entirely too optimistic, so far as
our own great waterway Is concerned
There are so many unexpected elements
in the calculation that it is impossible
to do more than conjecture what might
have happened in the first year II there
had been no war in Europe.
For example, 1t Is generally believed
that Germany was. Of all maritime coun.
tries, the one that had made most def.
mite preparation to avail itself OF the
ne wroute. German maritime and com
prospect of emancpa ton, in some meas
ure, from their thrandom to the Suez
route, and there were indications CT q
strong disposition to change their routes
as much as possible in favor Of Panama
as against Suez 1t was commonly TN.
derstood that the North German LLOYD
and Hamburg-American corporation.
were ready to reach for the bushes.
opened by the new routes, and thai
German exporters ana importers wer<