New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1915-09-21
Has Germany "Shot Her Bolt" ?

4 7
by Lord Kitchener's assertion last week
that the Germans had about shot their
holt" Various constructions have been
placed upon the statement, but there Is
only one that seems in any sense reasona-
BE. Beyond all question the Austro-Ger-
man armies are as large to-day as they
were in the opening months Of the war,
when their field forces were completely
organized. But It is only by examining
the figures for reserves that the actual
situation is disclosed.
We do not know all the official figures
for the losses of the combatants; we do
have the estimates made by the Germans
Of the French losses, of the French Of the
German losses, and of the Germans OF the
Russian prisoners and casualties. On all
sides the figures are plainly too large, but
they serve as a basis for calculations.
German authorities fix the French losses
for the first wear at around 100000. The
French estimate for the Germans is 4,OOO'-
600 The French loss as estimated BY the
Germans represents half the men actually
modified. numbering 100000. On the
same basis the German losses would be
around 3.35O,OO0, in both cases counting
the men fit for service at one-tenth OF the
ponulation. Let us accept the higher fig
rre for the French and the lower for the
German.
As 10 the Russians: The Duma was told
that 100000 Russians had been put IN the
field. The Germans claim that they and
their ally have taken 100000 prisoners.
This is too high, but let US accept it. Now
the casualties in addition must be not less
than 100000; many Of the prisoners
were doubtless wounded. This means a total
loss of 100000 Allowing in the case Of
The French, Russians and Germans that a
quarter Of the casualties have been re-
turned, the net loss for these nations would
be: French 100000, Germans 100000,
Russians $4,000 The Austrian net loss
apDroximates 100000; the gross exceeds
100000 and includes almost 100000
prisoners.
We know the British loss fell but little
short Of 100000 for the first year, and the
Belgian and Serbian may be reckoned at
100000. Italy in her first months up TO
AUGUST lost perhaps 100000.
The aggregate permanent loss for the
Allies is thus 100000, and for the leu
tonic powers 100000. In the first year
Of the war the French and Russians, to
make good their losses, put in the field
together 100000. The British put in
100000 new troops, and the Italians
$4,000. The Allies had in the field 4,50O,-
600, their permanent casualties were D.
100000, the fresh troops number $780,
600. The net increase was thus 100000,
and they have now in the field about D.
100000. In the same time the Teutonic
allies merely made good their losses of
100000 and still have 100000 in the
field.
Allowing one-tenth for the fraction of
national population available for war, the
French have now a reserve Of 100000 plus
the conscripts Of 1917, that have just been
called, or 100000. But the British have
raised 100000 troops by volunteering and
have only put 100000 in, so they have
available reserve Of 100000, which may
be measurably increased by further enlist
ments. say 100000. The Italians have
only put $4,000 in, and under the law Of
one-tenth they have left the difference be-
tween $4,000 and the 100000 provided
by tenth Of their population. But no
one supposes they can equip such number,
and 900 is perhaps the largest number
they may be expected TO furnish this year.
As 70 Russia, tenth of her population
would give 100000 available recruits.
But this is a preposterous number 70
equip. At the outside she cannot hope 10
supply more than the 5000, 600 which was
Allies will have behind field force Of
$3.50 900 reserves amounting 10 about =
100000. If their permanent casualties
amount to the same figure as last year,
that is, 100000. they will still have l.
i00,000 in reserve after keeping their field
armies at their present figure of 5,250,000.
The case Of the Teutonic allies is quite
different. At the outset of the war they
nut 100000 men in the field they have
lost 100000 and have made them good
keeping their field armies at $500 600
But their total resources. applying the law
Of one-tenth, were materially less than 12,.
900 900. Back Of their field armies they
have now, therefore. a reserve of some
thing less than 100000, which will be
increased by about 100000 during the
year when this years classes in Germany
and Austria are put in the field.
Field armies and reserve combined, the
Austro-Germans have now 100000. If
their loss this year equals that of last,
which was about 100000, they will end
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