Daily capital journal. (Salem, Oregon) 1903-1919, 1915-11-03

against reaction The various steel
shares have of course led in every up
ward movement. These are now benefit
ing from increased domestic orders; and
their outlook, in view of better home
trade and prospective government or.
ders and the preparedness" move
ment if decided upon, is particularly
promising. 1t may have been partly
and in some cases largely discounted,
but the new prosperity of the steel in.
dustry has fortunately something more
permanent behind it than war contracts.
1t is based upon the solid growth of the
country plus a mass of accumulated or
ders arising from period of discourage
ing business conditions which are fast
melting away. The steel industry Of
the United States seems to have con
firmed habit of running to extremes
having once again within a few short
months risen from the very depths of
despair to the highest attitudes of Op.
timism. Prices are rising rapidly, and
the chief danger nov is a buyers panic,
with rush of orders far beyond capac-
ity, many plants having received orders
far ahead for their full output
The weakness in foreign exchange
again attracted attention. This Of
course was due to the continued sensa-
tional excess of exports in our foreign
trade. During the week ending Octobc'
% the exports OF l3 principal customs
districts were valued at sos, 100000, and
imports only $2S,000,000 creating an
extraordinary excess of exports of
about 70,000.000 in a single week. This
tendency shows no signs of stoppage
For some weeks, if not months, it will
probably continue; though we cannot
indefinitely give credit for the buying
of our own goods Before long we will
be obliged to import more merchandise
or export less. Europe is sending us
both gold and securities in order to les
sen the Indebtedness, but in wholly in
adequate amounts. To meet immediat,
requirements only one means of adjust
ment remains, since a further loan a
/ this time is impracticable; and that il
the establishment of credits by the al
lies with American bankers. Negotia
tions to this end are already under con
sideration, and any serious derange
ment on this account will be prevent
ed, even If it be some months before
return movement to the normal reall,
begins. Some idea of the crisis in tn
foreign trade situation can be obtaine,
from the facts concerning transatlanti
shipping. Before the war grain wa
carried to Liverpool for 1.2d pc
bushel; now the rate is god. Cotton wa
then taken at zoe per 100 pounds; nov
the rate is SIPS. These are increases O
10 times the amount prevailing befor
the war began. Such high rates are, o
course, attracting ships from all part
of the world, aud it is believed tina
the scarcity in this respect has abou
; reached its climax.
The outlook for the market is gene
ally favorable. Liquidation in some q
= the specialties is still incomplete, BIT
the selling movement of the past tw
, or three weeks has strengthened ii
e technical position of the market, an
the diversion of attention to the raj
/ roads and better class of industrials h;
, inaugurated a new and safer buyin
/ movement. The prospect for the la
| two classes Of securities continues sa
i isfactory, and on pronounced reaction
, such securities should prove a good pu
e chase. Money is easy; general trade
5 improving; investment funds appear
e be plentiful, and an understone of ge
| uine confidence prevails in nearly 9
p departments of busin ess acmfwy pu
b dcnartments of business activity.
{ HENRY CLEWS.