Yorkville enquirer. [volume] (Yorkville, S.C.) 1855-2006, 1915-08-24
miscellaneous Rtaaina.
WHEN COTTON IS coNTRABAND
Dealers in the Commodity Speculate
as to Results.

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Great Britain and the allied nations
such Il policy has been outlined anC
the market is now discOunting what
ever effect the actual step will nave
and as a result the developments are
being followed with a maximum Of in
terest. The following is from Tn
Evening Post of New York and gives
one view Of the situation that Is now
engaging the attention of the COM
mercial world. 1t follows:
Cotton men in the city do not seem
to know exactly what will happen
when Great Britain and her allies de-
clare cotton contraband Of war, thus
shutting off the export of this article
from the United States to Germany
and Austria-Hungary While the al
lied governments have actually agreed
that cotton Is to be treated as contra
band Of war, the date Of their procla-
nation is still unknown.
"All sorts Of predictions have beer
made, varying from those extremely
alarmist in tone to assertions that the
effects of such a step already have
been discounted. But the strict fact
seems to be that wise men, who try to
speak conservatively, are willing to
admit that they are all at sea. If
the expected crop should be as small
as the government forecast allows,
namely, / 100000 bales, things may
not be so bad. If, on the other hand.
the crop attains the dimensions claim
ed for it by others-and it Is said to
be quite possible that it Wilt may
be IA, 900, 600 bales or more, or only
some 1000, 900 bales less than last
years bumper crop.
What will be done with it? That
is the question which every n who
has the remotest interest in cotton is
trying to solve to his own satisfaction.
The answer seems to be that large
crop or small crop, IL cotton Is put In
the contraband list, the two chief fac
tors in tackling the resulting situation
will be, first, the organization Of ade-
quate financial machinery to tide over
the growers, who will be left with a
large part Of the crop on their hands,
and, second, sufficient warehousing
facilities to store the surplus. Thus
last factor is, If anything, the more
important Of the two. The south
lacks proper warehouse facilities, but
If cotton can be stored, it will not
deteriorate in quality, and sooner or
later there must be market for every
pound Of it.
Germans Might Flood Market.
"Other questions present them
selves to the mind Of the trained cot
ton observer almost as rapidly as ne
ceases temporarily to worry over the
batch just answered. For instance,
there is the probable effect upon a
panicky market Of the unloading of
the immense number Of bales held by
German interests in this country for
export. Germany bought large guam
titles Of cotton last year, when the
product touched it's lowest level. Prices
two cents, three cents, or even more,
below the current quotations were
paid for much Of it. If Great Britain
puts her foot down fatty and says
mo" to the expectation Of cotton to
her enemies, then it is obvious that
there will be no necessity for Ger
many to hold on to the cotton she has
for herself. and in all
probability the first strain, the mar
ket will be called upon to bear, direct
ly after the issuance Of a c~ontraband
proclamation, would be a deluge Of
German-owned cotton bought so
cheaply that the sellers could afford
to knock the bottom from under ex-
listing prices.
1.-The mere substractIon from the
coming crop of Germany's potential
share is alleged to have been discount
ed, in all likelihood, by the reduction
in acreage of the planting area, the
growers having forseen a slackened
demand for cotton this year, in con-
nection with the big surplus left over
from last years bumper crop. AS
before, the official forecast for
this year is for a crop Of $4,000, 600
bales or 25 per cen less than last
years crop Of 5000, 900. In any
therefore it is pointed out that
supply of American cotton
which in the IL months before the
opening Of the war was 2,675,OOO
bales-will probably be wiped off the
crop total.
No Relief is Expected.
But even so, there is the addition
al peril Of a reduction in orders from
Great Britain and her allies. 1t has
been reported in the last few days
that Great Britain might attempt to
conciliate this country for her step in
declaring cotton c%ontraband by offer
ing to purchase an additional amount
of cotton equivalent to that which
Germany would have taken. But con-
sentative judgment is inclined to ridi-
Guile such expectations. 1t is pointed
out that Germany's normal supply of
cotton from us, at, say. $50 a bale,
would amout to $3.50, 600, 000-a sum
which Britain can scarcely afford to
pay out at this time for supplies she
does not absolutely need. Add to this,
too, the fact that the mills in the
United States are stacked up with
hundreds of thousands of bales more
than they are accustomed to carrying
and that their business is not as good
as it might be-in spite Of war orders
the profits in which seems to be de-
batable-and you begin to perceive
the reasons for the gloom that is
widespread throughout the south.
Cotton men seem to be r%econcileo
to an approaching period of depres'
sion, and many express themselves as
being satisfied If they get through
without an actual panic and disor'
ganization of the industry. Summed
up, the essentials to meet the situation
are a mobilization of financial credits
" vnr