The Bamberg herald. [volume] (Bamberg, S.C.) 1891-1972, 1915-09-16
FIGHT FOR 12-CENT COTTON.
Twelve-Cent Prices are Justified by
the Worlds Demands.

I beg space in your columns, Mr..
Editor, to present subject of the
utmost Importance to all our South
ern country. There is no doubt IN
most thoughtful minds but that the
South's cotton crop is going to be
worth $3.50, 100000 to the men who
own it next spring, but it is worth
only s50O,O00,0OO to the producers
at present prices-and it is to save
to Southern growers and to our
Southern country this extra quarter
of a billion dollars that the united
energies of press and people should
now be directed. The fundamental
facts seem to me to be clear:
J.. Cotton, even though the new
crop of 1915 has started coming on
the market, is still selling on the
basis of prices fixed by last years
7,000,000-bale crop.
2. These prices must soon be ad-
justed, however, to fit the conditions
of a $4,000, O,0O0-bale crop Cor proba-
bly, only a 100000 or II, 900, ,0OQ-
bale CROP, and this adjusted price
ought at the very least to reach IL
cents a pound for middling.
AS briefly now, as clear argument
will permit, I wish to point out and
emphasize the truth of these state
ments.
1.-The Worlds Demands Justify
Twelve Cents.
Assuming even a $4,000, ,0OO-bale
yield of Southern cotton this year
(and it will probably be less), this
years world production will be 81
100000 bales short of the worlds
conservatively estimated consump-
: ton during the coming twelve
months. That is to say, the world
will consume every pound of this
:. years crop and 100000 bales of
the present surplus.
Secretary Hester of the New Or
leans cotton exchange estimates last
years Southern production (not the
commercial CROP at 17,004,OOO
bales. The United States government
estimate (16,134,930 plus. 7s1, ,464
linters) is 16,926,349-practically
Il, 100000 bales. This was over g.
100000 bales in excess of the 1913
crop.
Now what happened with this
bumper 1900, ,000-bale crop in spite
{ of all the demoralized conditions OF
trade and fnance-the crop of which
it was said last fall we should not
export 100000 bales? The facts
are that the world used so much of
it that the total worlds visible sup
4 ply of all cotton in midsummer this
year was only 5,435,16S bales
against 3,522,276 bales the year
before. In other words, with a
1900, ,000-bale Southern crop to
handle, the worlds visible supply in
creased only 100000 bales. What
is going to happen this year then,
with the South offering 100000 or
T 5000, 900 bales less-and the pro-
duction of other countries also de-
creased? And this query brings me
to another point:
1.-THE Worlds Crop Prospects
= Justify Twelve Cents.
Mr.. w. P. G.. Harding, of the fed
eral reserve board, early in the sum-
mer secured reports from consular
officials all over the world indicat-
ing a total cut in the worlds cotton
crop this year of 100000 bales,
Egypt and India reporting radical
reductions in acreage" Since that
time the prospects have further de-
clined.
But even if we accept this early
over-estimate of the crop we see that
if last years crop, being 100000
bales bigger than this years, yet
increased the surplus only 100000
bales, then this years crop will leave
a 100000 bale deficit-to bel
drawn from the surplus.
The facts are, however, that even
a 12,0O0,OO0 bale estimate for the
South now seems too high. This is
not simply my view, but the view OF
many experts, including so conserva-
tive and competent an authority as
the New York Journal of Commerce
which has just declared that in view
of present conditions, 1.-The yield
seems likely to be nearer 100000
than 100000 bales. And now
comes the Wall Street Journal itself
quoting William S. Halliburton, of
Daniel O'Dell, & Co., as saying: "The
current seasons crop may be as low
as 10,5O0,000 bales. 1t is entirely
within. the reach of present condi-
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