The commonwealth. (Scotland Neck, N.C.) 1896-1929, 1915-09-23


E!iEnr, - present a suhjec. OF the
ut,nu., Importance ia ali nur South
er-, c,unlcy Tier, is 40 Doubt in
most thoughtful minds but tha: he
Wurtt. S130 900 coo t. the men wf.o
own it next spring, bat it is worth
orlv 5000 900, 900 10 the producers
at present prices and it Is u save
to Southern growers and To our
Southern country this extra quarter
Of a billion dollars that 'he unitei
energies of press and people should
nov i.e directed The Fundamental
facts seem to me to be clear:
l. Cotton, even though the new
crop Of 1915 has started coming on
the market, is still selling on the
the basis Of prices fixed by last year S
1000, 900 bale crop.
2 These prices must soon be ;4d-
justed, however, to fit the conditions
of. II 900, ,00O-bale crop Cor proba-
bly, only a 100000 or 100000
bale CROP, and this adjusted price
ought at the very least to reach II
cents pound for niddling.
AS briefly now, as clear argument
will permit, | wish to point out and
emphasize the truth of these state
ments.
1 | T ~
TWELVE CENTS.
| Assuming even $4,000, ,0OO-bale
| yield of Southern cotton this year
| (and it will probably be less,) this
| years world production will be
| 5000, 900 bales short Of the world S
| conservatively estimated consump-
ton during the coming twelve
| months. That is to say, the world
| will consume every pound OF This
years crop and 100000 bales oi
| the present surplus.
| Secretary Hester Of the New Or.
leans Cotton Exchange estimates last
| years Southern production (not the
= commercial crop at II 600. 900 bales
The United States Government esti
mate G6, 134 $50 plus 79l ,464 lint
ers) is 1926, ,349-prachcally H.,
!, 600. 900 bales. This was over 2, 900,
900 bales in excess of the 1913 crop
Now what happened with thu
bumper 19,OOO,O ,OO0-bale crop il
spite of all the demoralized condi
tions of trade and finance the crol
of which it was said last fa. W.
should not export 100000 bales
The facts are that the world uset
so much of it that the total world :
visible supply Of all cotton in mid
summer this year was onis 5, 5,435, II
Id bales against 1892, ,276 bales a yea
D before. In other words, with
J. II, 900, ,OOO-bale Southern crop t
- handle, the worlds visible supply in
creased only 100000 bales. Wha
is going to happen tins year ther
with the South offering 5000, 900 O
5000, 900 bales less-and the pro
1T duction Of other countries also dc
creased? And this query brings m
. to another point
1.-THE WORLDS CROP PROSPECT
JUSTIFY TWELVE CENTS.
Mr.. w P. G. Harding of the Fee
eral Reserve Board earl" in the sun
| l..
officials al over the w,,rii indicatin
=. rotal cut in the WnrIh'S cotfC
IA crop this year of 5,O90.0OJ Dale
er Egypt and India reporting radio
les reductions in acreage Since to-
. time the prospect is have further O
cline.
But even if we accept this ear
ma estimate of the crop we see tn
ed if last years crop, heing 5,O00,O
bales bigger than this years, Y
increased the surplus only 2.OOO,O'
bales, then this years crop W
's' leave a 100000 bale deficit
~, at be drawn from the surplus
he The facts are, however. that eV
ses a IL, 900 900 bale estimate for t
South now seems too high. This
not simply my view, but the vie
of many experts, including so ct
servative and competent an author
aad as the New York Journal Of Co
O l merce which has just declared tt
p. in view of present conditions, It
yield seems likely to be nearer l
OOO. 900 than II. 900, 900 bales A
now comes the Wall Street Jour
,,a itself quoting William S. Hallib
tan ton, Of Daniel O'Dell & Co, as S
(. ing: "The current seasons CT