Semi-weekly herald., 1915-03-15
JANUARY TRADE.

The country's credit balance on its
foreign trade for January, $145,536,- |
1903, is the biggest ever known. In
fact, it is too big to last, or to be al
together welcome, 1t is not in good
years that we have these huge eX-
cesses of either debit or credit. The !
next largest credit for one month was
in 1908. when we were paying for
the accommodation which enabled
us to tide over the panic of 1907. !
Our credit balance in that month was
only $121, ,1l7,204, and there is no
third month worthy of comparison. |
Both, therefore, appear to be abnor
NAL and to be corrections of condi- |
tions rather than the sort of prosper
ity which has elements of perma-
nence. Foreign trade is best when
it is in full volume on both sides the
account, and does not create huge |
balances which cannot be settled in
the way of natural trade. January's |
foreign trade is unbalanced on both
sides. The exports are swollen by
foodstuffs which make the cost of liv-
ing burdensome here, as in the war
afflicted countries. Imports are dim
inished because the warning countries
have nothing they can send us. That
ought to put us on inquiry about how
we are to be paid for the $267 ,S01,-
$40 worth of goods which we export
ed. Imports were only $122 ,265, ,267,
and if it We're possible to imagine
| continuance at that rate our foreign
friends would have to send us nearer
two billions than one of either goods
or gold. They neither can nor will do
either, and if we are prudent we shall
consider the alternative method of ball
| ancing the account.
There is reason, also, for the Euro
pean nations to be thoughtful if not
anxious. No country can afford to
| neglect such depreciation of its cur
rency as is reflected by the abnormal
condition of the exchange market now
l az viz 1Oi oOllt
| ami near the minimum for others. III
VIC continue selling without buying
proportionate foreign prices will con-
tinue to rise in their money, and even
also in ours, SO urgent is buying in
| war times. 1t is case where both
buyers and sellers would prefer to
have prices kept more nearly normal.
To balance the account on merchan-
diss movement. that is to correct the
exchanges, foreign buyers would rath-
er send us promises to pay than either
| gold which they dare not part with
or goods which they cannot produce
or ship. Thus the excessive foreign
debit, our credit, on merchandise
movement tends to induce offerings
of foreign-owned American securi-
lies. The excessive price and volume
of our exports of breadstuffs-S55,-
| 6SI ,445, or more than double any 9TH
er January-are directly and logical
iy ronnected with the daily declines
of American securities. Cotton ex-
ports of s59, ,s9s,921 were larger than
in nine of the last fifteen years, and
contributed their share.
Buoyancy in foreign trade is there
fore associated with depression in the
stock market, which can be corrected
in two ways. One is to produce such
activity and prosperity in domestic
trade that our securities will have
larger values behind them. Foreign
ere will not sell them any lower than
they have to, and we could be in ,
dueed to pay more for them if their
solidity We're better assured. The
energy spent at Washington in stimu-
la ing foreign trade might better be
directed toward animating domestic
trade. Our foreign trade is as largo
as ia convenient, and our home trade
is larguishing under the depressing
effect of excessively high prices for
SUPPLIES to meet the necessities of war
and abnormally low prices for the
means of payment. Tender is made
IN out own deprecated securities, and