South Bend news-times., 1915-09-27
j. s. NEUTRAL
TRADE TO GROW
CleWS Points 0Ht Warning Ma
ti0nS Not Able to Sup
ply Demands.
RY Henry CIews.

MIN fOEk. sept -. - -Np Nt-
velopments have arisen this week 10
suggest the necessity Of revision or
recent opinion on the general Imam
cial situation. While "a final definite
communication has not been received
from the German foreign OftiVe on the
sinking OF the Arabic, there is every
reason for optimism that the uluTate
result viii be a satisfactory solution
Of the question Of 81 Dmarine methOdS
Of warfare so far as our own country
has a practical interest. A distinct
suggestion Of this was contained IN
the note from Berlin on the Frye case,
which gives assurance that in the fU-
ture American merchantmen vii. not
be destroyed. SO long as the unf'
tunate conflict lasts, however, there
unquestionably will be ever recurrent
shocks These are the natural con-
cOmitants OF war and must be expect
ed. But there is neither desire nor
object on the part Of the countries OF
present at war 10 force America into
the struggle; and there certainly is in
"A large sense nothing 10 gain and
much TO lose If we were TO voluntarily
participate Hence with the complete
absence OF incentive II seems reason
able to conclude that the immediate
future OF the market situation may
be judged on the basis that we are
not TO become actual participants.
Will Keep Neutral Trade.
Granting this, while there is not apt
20 be any immediate improvement IN
our foreign trade OF what may be
termed routine character with Europe,
we will continue to possess some COM
pensation in the form Of activity in
supplying not only the demands for
war material but the products which
neutral nations need and which here
tOfore have been so largely furnished
by the countries that are now at war;
for instance the South American re-
publics to which our exports have al
ready begun TO show gratifying in
creases.
While the so-called war specialties
have made further advances during
the week there has been perceptible
broadening OF the demand to include
the older classes Of railroad and other
diViVend- paying securities. United
States Steel corporation shares, too.
have been in increased favor and quo
tations have advanced 70 the 1912
level as a result OF the well-knOwn
improvement that has taken place in
the great iron and steel Industry. The
crops which at this season are always
an influence that should be watched
with care by conservative operators,
may be considered to assure harvest
that, considered as a whole has never
before been equalled The volume or
the corn yield Will Of course be larger,
the longer that frost is delayed, but
even on the present basis the results
are highly encouraging and 1t Is GER
tain that the granger sections of the
country are TO enjoy another year or
prosperity in which they will be able
to accumulate additional savings
available for investments.
Allies ID Get Loan
The English and French gentlemen
who have come to New York as rep
resentatives OF their respective gov
ernments TO negotiate ~ credit which
will have for its object the restoration
OF the sterling and French exchanges.
Will unquestionably be successful in
their mission and the complete de-
tails of the international arrangement
soon will be announced. This Is an
important market factor considered
from any angle. In the first place II
provides for the continued unrestrlct-
ed expectation OF American products.
AT the same time Ii removes one or
the most active incentives for the sale
by foreign holders of their American
securities At the low figure which
exchange touched at the beginning Of
this month. sterling funds were at a
discount IN this market OF more than
per cent, which meant that after
selling their stocks and bonds IN New
proceeds into their own national funds
on a cOrrespOndiugly attractive basis.
snus adding the rate of the discount
10 the English equivalent If the
credit that is now being negotiated
fulflls its mission the discount will
appear aad the incentive 10 sell Will
be cOrrespOndingly curtailed. Mean
while money at home not being re-
oulred I'm anything like is normal
volume for home requirements is nat
uralIy accommodating ia the banks and
a period OF continued case is definite
lv in sight despite the large credit TO
which reference already has been
made.
AS TO the more remote market,
there are considerations arising from
the influence OF the war that 1t Will
he desirable TO keep definitely in mind.
j refer To the increased obligations In
the direction OF international finance
that our country must assume. Here
tofore we. ourselves, have been a
debtor country. The funds with which
our own national resources have been
developed were at the beginning con
tributed by British and other foreign
capitalists, though these have in very
large measure been repaid and we are
in a position on our part 10 extend
financial aid TO others. Since the war
began there has been an almost con-
Iuuous selunB or our securities Dy
holders living In the countries now at
war. These have been taken very
readily by our own people and finally
negotiations are in progress for the
establishment here OF large credit
IN favor of the British and French
governments. This transaction. large
as 1t has been without influence on
money rates. which indicates how ac-
tually redundant is the supply OF un-
III. do
try. especially when we consider that
we have reached the height OF the
crop marketing season. which usually
has been q period OF money strain in