Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1915-11-28

sense, HIS most SUCCESSFUL Saiiip"'
What terms will triumphant Ger
many offer to her foes. defeated so far
but still unconquered, and stiN botn
financially and from the military point
of view able to continue the war: VIII
German diplomats, like the japanese
in the Portsmouth conference, be pre-
pared to claim all, but arrive IN
structed, as the Japanese representa-
tives were, to make peace on any pos
sible terms In other words. no"
badly does Germany now desire peace
This is the determining question. and
this question cannot be answered in ad-
vance.
Problems Which Will Arise.
1t is possible. however, to review the
major problems that must be consid-
cred by those who are to decide for
peace or for war and estimate the con-
ceSsions that will be insisted upon by
the various combatants, measure the
handicaps and barriers that after six
teen months still lie in the way of a
settlement. Personally l do not be-
lieve peace can be made this winter OF
next summer, but ! share the current
view that an attempt =, make peace
will shortly be made, and l purpose in
main problems that will come with
formal or informal peace negotiations
First of all, there is no mistaking the
fact that neither France nor Great
Britain will today make peace or dis
cuss peace until they are assured that
the evacuation of Belgium by the Ger
mans is TO be the first article of the
treaty. The debt of honor which France
and England owe Belgium is alone suf-
fcient to compel these nations to con-
tinue to fight for the deliverance OF
the country of King Albert from the
invader until they are utterly ex-
hausted.
Danger to England.
But the debt of honor is not the sole
concern. Great Britain fought Napo-
leon for ten bitter years because the
possession of Antwerp and the Bel
CLAN coast by the French emperor was
standing menace to British existence
"a pistol aimed at the heart of Eng
land In century the steamboat and
the Zeppelin. to say nothing of the
submarine, have made the channel a
far less considerable barrier than it
was in Napoleon's time. England must
preserve neutral Belgium if she is to
live herself.
AS for France, the violation of Bel
GUM by Germany is final proof that the
shortest road and the best road from
Berlin to Paris runs through Brussels
With Germany seated along the French
frontier from the channel to the Ar.
dennes. France would be completely "a
the mercy of Germany for all time anC
France would sink to second-rat.
power and become. in fact, a mer,
Teutonic vassal. For France and fol
England, then. the freedom of Belgium
is a question of life and death, ant
peace is impossible until Belgium i:
free or they are conquered
Indemnities.
In the same category must be placed
the question of northern France Tn.
less Germany is willing to retire from
every inch of French territory now DC
cupied there can be no peace, becaus.
France is not yet conquered. not ever
beaten in any decisive fashion, and i
is only necessary to recall the French
fight in 1871 TO be assured that only
after complete conquest will Franc,
surrender her own territory.
Assuming, then, that Germany vii
agree to evacuate France and Belgium
will she be able to exact a huge in
demnity as the price of such a with.
drawalo This is what the German.
have expected all along and the Ger
man minister of finance has publicly
foreshadowed sucn a condition as .
part of Germany's terms.
Yet it is well to consider what this
would mean. All the European states
have been forced to make terrific ex.
penditures in the struggle. and Ger.
many. in proportion TO her resources
has spent more than any other com
Blatant. Were she now able to MAKE
Ia h
would be saved from all the greater
pangs that follow war. she would cas-
lily and promptly outstrip all her enc,
mics commercially. and they would, II
fact be reduced to the estate of slaves
laboring to pay the German indemnity
Neither Will Pay Anything.
Nothing is more certain than that mel
Their Great Britain nor France. the
situation now stands, Will consent 10
pay Germany pound or franc. 1t
would amount to tribute, it would
be q contribution to Germany's future
prosperity and it would be a handi-
cap to their commercial future. If Ger
many insists on tribute. both France
and Great Britain are certain to elect
to continue the war, rather than to pay
Germany money. and all the nations
will proceed to march with even step
toward the Ifdntldl which
must come with an indefinite protrac-
ton of the war.
| am satisfied that the evacuation
of Belgium and France. as well as
are conditions essential to
peace But the British on their side,
with French assent, have insisted that
Belgium must be reimbursed by Ger
many for her great losses Here, again.
is condition which only a conqueror
can impose, and France and England
are not conquerors. As for Belgium.
would she prefer peace now or a year
or two more of starvation and paralysis
on the off chance OF a German indem-
nitv at the end? Is there any doubt =?
Probably, if indemnity We're the only
thing and Belgium We're permitted To
decide she would take peace and Ger
man evacuation and let the indemnity
go.
Few writers save German believe that
.ndemnities will play any consdera BILE
part in any treaty of peace, and few
believe that the states of Europe will
be in condition to pay indemnities
when the war is over. But certainly
peace now will have to be without in
IDENTITIES on either side.
Alsace-Lorraine.
Next to the liberati of Belgium,
every Erenchman looks forward TO the
liberation of the Lost Provinces a
tiny fraction of which are now re-