The gazette-times. [volume] (Heppner, Or.) 1912-1925, 1915-12-02
THE ATTEMPT TO FORECAST
TRADE CONDITIONS "AFTER
THE WAR.

1t is message of grave but
grounded hope that A. D. Noyes. fl
nancial editor of the New York Post
brings to the closing month of the
year. Forecasting the future of in
dustrial Europe after the war in the
| light of 16 months experience, he
keeps in mind the fact that virtually
none of the far more disQuieting pre-
dictions made regarding the economic
effects of the war itself has been full
filled"
England has made rational prepar-
ations for the aftermath of war, and
the tax collections will more than
pay interest on the new debt. Ger
many has fiinched from this, and pays
interest on its earlier loans from the
proceeds Of the new loans, the Ger
man minister of finance drea ming
that indemnity from defeated bellig-
Grants will finance the empire. But
Germany entered war bearing finan-
cial burden that usually is the last
word in taxation. This consisted of
the special and heavy levy imposed in
1913 'to provide for the immensely
increased army with which the gov
ernment was unquestionably plan
ming, even then, to provoke this war. I"
Paralysis of normal business in
nroococ ronidlx- or,Op1 tbo holJ;ror
ants. British exports the first seven
months of this year were 32& per
cent less than in the same period last
year; French exports Sc per cent less
The German appeal that "every hun
dred marks of private savings be in
vested in war loans" and the British
tax of II per cent and upward on in
comes must enormously reduce the
peoples purchasing power. Belliger-
ant Europe after the war will almost
be Europe pauperized In England
the furious activity in all industries
contributing to war will stop, but the
taxes will continue. In Germany war
orders will have ceased, the long EN-
barge on foreign commerce will exert
it's cumulative influence and the i'm
position of much heavier taxes can
not be deferred, If the war should
continue till 1917 interest on its
debts will be quite as large as were
all annual public revenues of the bel
ligerant governments before the war
What will be the peoples attitude
toward such crushing burdens? Re-
pudiation? Mr.. Moves thinks not.
Nothing seems more improbable to
him than refusal to pay interest and
the principal. Belligerants must bor-
row heavily when peace returns, in
order to meet the continuing deficits.
Bad faith toward war loans would de-
stroy national credit. Europe de-
pends in peace as in war upon good
financial relations with America and
other powerful neutrals.
But will not Europe pour such vol
umes of manufactures at low prices
into the United States, that European
producers will deprive American
manufacturers of their markets? The
financial expert answers: "The pros
pect, on examination, is not so clear
as might be imagined. Europe's first
and premeptory requirement will be
immense supplies of new material for
reconstruction. Some of our
most experienced manufacturing au-
thorities hold that these circumstan
ces insure an export trade from the
United States to Europe of abnor
mally large proportions after the
war. European wages have risen rap
idly. Their rise has resulted from
great excess of demand for labor ov-
er available supply. That condition
will not be wholly rectifed when ar
mics are disbanded. The wars po
litical readjustments have fastened
much more firmly than before the
hold of the labor party and their SYM
pathizers on European governments.
If wages remain high how is the Eu
ropean manufacturer to undersell our
producers and flood the market. =
SpokesmanReview.