The Carlisle independent., 1915-09-30
By CLARENCE POE, Editor The
 Progressive Farmer.

By CLARENCE POE, Editor The
 Progressive Farmer.
 There is no doubt in most thought full minds but that the South's cotton crop is going to be worth $750,000,OOO to the men who own it next spring. 1 but it is worth only $500,000,0 900 to the producers at present prices-and it is to save to southern growers and i to our southern country tbis extra quarter of billion dollars that the united energies of press and people should now be directed. The funda- mental facts seem to me to be clear:
 1. Cotton, even though the new rrop of 1915 has started coming on the market is still selling on the basis of prices fixed by last years 17,ooo,- Doo-baIe crop.
 2. These prices must scon be ad- iusted, however, to fit the conditions of a 12,ooo, ,ooo-bale crop tor pro bably only a 1o,ooo,ooo or 11,ooo,ooo-bale crop), and this adjusted price ought at the very least to reach 12 cents a pound for middline.
 AS briefly now, as clear argument will permit, wish to point 5ut and emphasize the truth of these state ments.
 The Worlds Demands Justify Twelve
 Gents.
 Assuming even 12,000 000-bale yield of southern cotton this year (and it will probably be less) this years world production will be B. 000,000 bales short of the worlds con servatively estimated consumption during the coming twelve months. That is to say, the world will con sume every pound of this years crop and 3,O00,000 bales of the present surplus.
 Secretary Hester of the New Or leans Cotton exchange estimates last years southern production (not the commercial crop at 17,004.000 bales. The United States government esti- mate (16,134,930 plus 791, ASA linters) is 16,926, ,349-practically 100000 bales. This was over 100000 bales in excess of the 1913 crop.
 Now what happened with this bumper 17,000, ,O0O-bale crop in spite of all the demoralized conditions of trade and finance-the crop of which 1t was said last fall we should not ex- port 1000 900 bales? The facts are that the world used so much of it that the total worlds visible supply of all 1 Iii only 5,435,1 ,168 bales against 3,522 .276 bales a year before. In other words. with 17,000, ,000-bale southern crop to handle, the worlds visible supply increased only 1,900,000 bales. What is going to happen this year then, with the South offering 5,000,000 or 5000, ,0000 bales less-and the produc- tion of other countries also decreased And this query brings me to another point:
 The World's Crop Prospects Justify
 Twelve Gents.
 MT. w. P. G. Harding Of the fed eral reserve board early in the sum- mer secured reports from consular officials all over the world indicating total cut in the worlds cotton crop India reporting radical reductions in acreage" Since that time the pros poets have further declined.
 But even if we accept this early overestimate of the crop we see that if last years crop. being 5,000,0OO bales bigger than this years yet in- creased the surplus only 2,000,000 bales, then this years crop will leave a 3,00O,000 bale deicit-to be drawn from the surplus.
 The facts are, however, that even 12,000,000 bale estimate for the South now seems too high. This is not simply my view, but the view of | tive and competent an authority as the New York Journal of Commerce, waich has just declared that. in view of present conditions, the yield seems likely to be nearer 10,000.000 than 12,000,000 bales And now comes the Wall Street Journal itself, quoting William S. Halliburton of Daniel O'Dell & Go. as saying: "The current seasons crop may be as low as 10.500,000 bales. It is entirely within the reach of present condi- tons that We shall see 121a-cent cot ton before the end of the season"
 These two authorities base their estimates chiefly on condition reports -~N~-~~N~~~~~-~~-~~~~ -~~~~~~~->~-~~O>~o
 Sailors Report Conditions.