The Hattiesburg news. (Hattiesburg, Miss.) 1908-1917, 1915-07-29
B|LBO WILL RECEIVE
BUT 54,38O VOTES
Continued From Page One.)

Quin will run second with Bilbo and
Tally close for third place. But this
claim is almost absurd, and if any
thing is certain in politics, Bilbo is
certain to run first on August 3, with
Reilly and Tally running neck and
neck for second place.
The Second Primary.
Conceding to Bilbo a good lead over
his next nearest opponent in the first
primary, what will be the outcome Of
the second?
The answer to this question de-
ponds, primarily, on two conditions,
namely, the amount of Bilbo's plural
ity on August 8, and secondly, which
of the other four men now in the race
will be in the second race.
AT this point a speculation into the
number OF votes likely to be cast is
interesting. Four years ago, when
lVardaman, Alexander and Percy were
candidates for the United States Sen
ate in one of the hardest political
battles in the states history, the total
vote polled was 132,401. In this race
Vardaman's majority over his two OPP
ponents was 26,359.
Vardaman four years ago was
stronger, politically speaking, than
Bilbo is now. With other conditions
equal, Bilbo would poll several thou
sand fewer votes than Vardaman did
four years ago But other conditions
are not equal both Alexander and Per
ey were exceptionally able lawyers,
but as politicians there are at least
three men in the present race for gov
ernor who are better vote getters
than either Alexander or Percy. Alex
ander and Percy combined got 53,021
votes while Vardaman got 1880. Sup
posing that the vote next Tuesday
will be about the same as it was two
years ago-and it will not be much
greater-Bilbo probably would poll
about 5000 fewer votes than Varda-
man did against such opposition as
Vardaman had. This would cut his
majority down to 1883.
Have Individual Following.
i But there are many other things tc
be considered Tally, Reilly, Quin and
Stovall each have their own individual
followings; each have made aggres-
sive campaigns and each have taken
votes away from Bilbo. How many
more votes, then, will Tally and Reilly
and Quin and Stovall poll than Alex
ander and Percy polled? On that
question hangs the whole cruX of the
situation and while there is no way
to find out accurately except to count
the votes, it seems probable that 90
600 would be an answer not very far
wrong.
4
vote of 1880 and deducting first the
900 and then the 10000 would leave
Bilbo $3.50 votes. OF course the
Bilbo people are claiming $4,000 in
the first primary, While two of his OPP
ponents claim he will not get more
than $4,000; but the chances are that
$3.50 will not be very far either way
from the Bilbo vote.
Continuing on the assumption that
Tuesdays vote will the same as the
vote polled four years ago, that would
leave the other four candidates 7S,021
votes between them. In other words,
the Bilbo vote would be something
like $4,000 less than the combined
vote of his TO opponents.
Depends on Opponent.
If the figures thus far prove to be
correct-and they are about rs good
!, as can be arr ved at on any reasoaa =
, assumptions will depend on who
bllDO OppOIcut Is DIS W WhCtuOA hs
, will win in the second race. The idea
! that the total vote against him will re
main against him no matter what can
didate stays in the race with him viii
certainly be found erroneous. In For
rest county. for instance, Tally vii
: get hundreds of votes which will go t.
Bilbo if Tally drops out; and the same
: is true of the other candidates-eacl
r has a strong personal following wht
J will go to Bilbo if their favorite candi
, date gets out of the race.
Now the indications are that either
) Tally of Reilly will run second. Quiz
. has a chance, it is conceded, but he
does not seem to be as strong as eth
er Tally or Reilly. And it is pretty
safe wager that if Bilbo polls within
$4,000 votes of the total vote agains
! him and If Reilly is his opponent in
tho cacond urinary pi1ho will win