The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1915-04-13
THE ISSUE OF THE WAR.
Professor Sauveur Of Harvard Re-
cards Eventual Victory for the
Allies as 4 Mathematical Certainty.

To THE EDITOR OF THE SuN--Sir: While
the great majority of neutral observers
of the present war believe that the Allies
will eventually win. many statements
have recently appeared In the newspa-
pers pointing to German victory. We
are told that Germany still possesses
great aggressive power and large stores
of food and ammunition: that she Is
building hundreds of submarines and
hundreds of Ieppelins to be used In the
conquest of England: that millions OF
men are still to he sent to the front that
Russia will soon be beaten, or that she
will betray her allies and conclude
separate peace; that the defeat OF
France will promptly follow, and that
England. deprived OF the assistance OF
her allies, will in turn succunb.
A little reflection suffces to show the
| unsoundness OF these arguments and In
| some instances. their fantastic character.
That the resources of the Allies In
money, food and ammunition are vastly
superior to those OF Germany. Austria
and Turkey Is a fact that cannot be rea-
sonably refuted. As for men. II has been
declared that Germany could still send
$4,000. 900 against her enemies. Let us
assume. for the sake of argument, that II
| Is a possible thing for country to pre-
pare for actual warfare twenty per cent.
of its entire population. Germany Aus
| tria and Turkey have a total population
Of some 139,00O,00o. while England.
France. Russia and Servia nave com
bined population OF 24S. 000. 600. If Ger
many can send to the battlefield twenty
| per cent. of her population, 80 can the
other nations. 1t is not to be argued
that France, England and Russia are
not ready to make as great sacrifices az
| their enemies, or that they lack the will
or means to mobilize az large pro-
portion Of their population. They may
| not be able to do II as quickly, but that
they could eventually do 1t is not to he
doubted There would then be 27,000.000
| men on the Teutonic side against 49,
| 100000 on the side OF the Allies. or
course. these figures are absurd; they
| are given here solely to show that there
| is little comfort for German sympathiz-
| ers in this kind of talk
And so II Is with the hundreds OF
| Xeppelns and Of submarines said to be
| in process OF construction Leaving the
| realms OF fancy 1t will be realized that
the best Germany will probably be able
| to do will be to manufacture these i'm
| plements fast enough to replace those
| destroyed. Nor is there any reason to
| anticipate that her warfare In this d.
! reCtion will be in the future more ef-
1 fective than IL has been in the past. II
| Germany had ii in her power to use Ter
| Zeppeins and submarines so as to strike
| telling blows at her enemies. who would
| believe for an instant that she would
| have been contented these eight months
with the sinking of few merchant
ships and the killing of few women
| and children? Ships will continue to be
| torpedoed from time to time. but the
| British fleet will not be destroyed more
| women and children will undoubtedly he
| murdered but neither England nor
France will be laid bare b. the bombs
| of the German Zeppelins.
In regard to Russia's early defeat, the
assertion Is absolutely without support,
while the assertion that she Is TO prove
traitor and abandon her allies is SO OBJ
| vlously part OF the German propaganda
| intended to create distrust and d!sCord
| among tn. Allies as hardly to deserve
| consideration
The facts are that Germany probably
\ has in the East some 1000 600 men fac
ing three or four million Russians. and
that In the West she has likewise some
100000 soldiers opposed by 5000. 600
| Frenchmen and ! 900. 900 Relgians and
| British, the latter soon to be strongly re-
| enforced. II may be reasonably assumed
| that all belligerent countries will he able
for some time 10 come to iii the gaps
in their armies as fast as they occur. but
in time the supply must become eN-
hausted, when. assuming equal losses on
both sides. the German armies must OF
necessity be annihilated. while millions
OF Allies would still remain in the field
and u seems inevitable that the supply
OF new recruits must give out in Ger
many before the Allies have exhausted
theirs.
No mention is here made Of the ar
mics OF Austria and OF Turkey because
additional available millions OF Russian
4
plete the defeat OF these half beaten
armies
Those 10 whom these facts are uuwel-
come will find little comfort in the hope
that the Germans will achieve victory IN
tn. face of these great odds because OF
create strategic SKIN. greater bravery
or what not seeing that such hope would
have no foundation. The DAYS Of a pos
sble theatrical drive To Paris. followed
by rush TO p"trograd, have passed
The German forces are divided between
the east and the west, and divided they
must remain 70 the end OF the war. Ad-
I uniting that the combined forces of Ger
many and Austria could crush Russia on
the one hand. or England and France or
the other. divided the task Is hey oud
their power
As foy the neutral nations II sonU OF
them cease to he neutral. as some prob
will join the ranks OF the Allies
1t may appear presumptuuus for one
who il not military expert to venture
| a prediction as 10 the outcome of The
European struggle. but the statements OF
military SPECIALISTS have been SO wild oi
so absolutely uouCOmmittal as to be OF
little assistance to aNmeu, and II seems
permissible to express an opinion hhseC
, ON common sense and on the IdtioUd
belief that "A coalition Of $4,000, 90,
} people with greater resources, the com
maud of the sea. equal strategic SKIN
equal courage ana equal determination
cannot be defeated by coalition o.
lS9. 900, 600 people.
1t should also be borne In mind tina
the Allies have the hearty moral sup
port OF practically all the neutral ma
tions. and the great importance of tina
asset ~ not to he overlooked. Tit
soldiers OF the Allies are inspired by III,
knowledge that their victory will he &c
claimed with rejoicing 10y the neutra
: nations and that they will be hailed a.
the lberators OF the world from IN,
odious Teutonic menace. The German
soldiers on the contrary, must night will
the courage of desperation Will" con
scious that II they win they will hav
' TO live surrounded by nations in whicl
their conduct has inspired horror, an'
which by brute force only can he pre-
vented from rising against them. "A vi
sion of victory hardly less disheartenin,
, than that of defeat
= In view Of the above considerations
| IittiCIlt pspupp a