Daily capital journal. (Salem, Oregon) 1903-1919, 1915-07-01


our own borders and the consequences
were much more easily measured than
in the ease of the highly complicated
European struggle now convulsing the
entire civilized world. So numerous
and so violent are the forces at work
that no reliable Judgment can be formed
as to their ultimate effects; and the
wisest men are those who try to walk
day by day rather than taking long
strides into the future Opinions as
to what will happen are of questionable
value, where the forces at work are
so vast, so unexpected, so volcanic and
so utterly ungovernable. This ghastly
war is moving slowly, very slowly, to-
wards a finish that still seems quite
remote. The fall of Lemberg may
prove a serious reverse to the Allies;
it may not. 1t certainly affords an
other illustration of Germany's marvel.
Gus military efficiency; but even such
efficiency may finally have to give
way to time, exhaustion and superior
resources.
The decentralization of our foreign
trade brought ON 0y the war continues
unabated. Imports have been coming
in somewhat more freely, resulting for.
tunately in much needed improvement
in our customs revenue. Our exports
also continue very heavy owing chief
ly to shipments of foodstuffs, also of
war material which are going outwards
on steadily increasing movement. 1t
now appears that war contracts are
being accepted on a much vaster scale
than ever supposed. Instead of the
earlier statements Of orders being ex-
aggerated, it is now realized that the
volume of these contracts has frequent.
b been under-estimated because or
the secrecy concerning them Some
careful estimates figure that munition
contracts valued at over $500, 900
have already been placed in the United
States. Immense orders have also been
placed for other war supplies which it
is calculated would bring the total up
to about $75O,OO00O0, the bulk Of
which will be spent with the steel trade.
But this is only about half the credits
which, according to good authorities,
have been under negotiation, including
$5O0,O00000 for Great Britain, $500.
100000 for Russia, S400,00OO00 for
France and $l00,000,000 for Italy. A
number Of our largest industrial plants
have taken contracts of between $50.
100000 and $lOOOOO,O00 each. These
figures are simply astonishing and be.
yond all precedent. They will be con.
sidered as the satisfactory side Of the
account; if such word as satisfactory
can be applied to organized murder and
destruction. The United States is the
only country in the world that is
profitng by this war, and such profits
will be confined to the few and must
inevitably be offset by the incalculable
losses inflicted upon the many. Figure
as we may, the world will he much the
poorer for this catastrophe for years tC
come.
When peace arrives reconstruction
will follow in vigorous fashion. Europe
will be so absorbed in rebuilding, and
so crippled in productive capacity as tC
have little to sell in the form Of mer
chandise to this country. The disrup
tion Of established business conditions
the raising Of new tariff walls, the
making Of new treaties, the overcom
/ ing Of bitter preiudces and the neces
sitv Of making endless new adjustments
will all tend to keep our foreign trade
IN a state Of chaos long after peace i,
established. Our imports will natural,
be more affected in volume than ex
ports, because of Europe's inability tc
sell. Our exports Of agricultural prod
ucts may not be seriously Impaired; II
fact we may have to feed Europe Will,
her whole energy is given over TO re
/ building; but there will be much les,
reason for confidence in our ability tt
win foreign markets for our manu-
/ iactures year or two hence thar
there is now, True, new opportunitiel
will be offered, but when fighting il
/ done with Germany viii make an in
tense effort 10 recover her lost markets
Low prices, hard work and adapt
ability will slowly but surely adapt
come present preiudices Great B.itaii
viii be obliged to make an equal,
strenuous effort if she expects 10 hol,
any newly gained markets. OF ou
ability to compete with these energetic
rivals, who will undoubtedly operate OF
a cheaper and better established basi
than ourselves, there is ~ vet no posi-
tive assurance. The whole future O
the commercial world is highly un
settled, and all operations connectc.
Herewith viii have TO take into con
sidefailon the numerous hazards, as wei
as the unquestionable opportunitie
which will arise from the settlement o
Old troubles and fresh deyrlopmeu
Of the world resources.
Home conditions are fairly satisfar
tory, General trade is quiet, and doe
not improve as rapidly a. desired. Th
most encouraging symptom is the in
creasing activity ia the steel trade, rc
sulting almost entirely, as said abov,
from war contracts This iufuscs
somewhat feyerish edNlition in that in
dusiry, and speculation in what
known as the "war group" Of seenri
/, ties has carried market prices In man
eases 70 unheard Of figurel. Need
less to say speculation in these proT
critics at present prices is sxeeediagi
hazardous. The financial situation O
the United States Is EXCEPTIONAL
strong and satisfactory Funds ar
steadily aetumulaiiug, and there Is a
abundance Of money az very reason
able rates TO good borrowers. IN Jul
the semi'anuual dividend disburs,
ments aggregating about sg5O 600 90