New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1915-12-21

Bulgaria, Turkey and Greece, to say moth
ing Of the Serbs, whether they retain
their freedom or not-would presently
follow their own fortunes, which cannot
long run parallel with German
A central empire dominated and con-
trolled by Germany would be menace TO
the whole of Europe and as such would
keep alive the present Quadruple Alliance,
even though it loses this war, SO far as
Eastern Europe Is concerned. Such CEN
trail empire, from its very character, would
be threatened by revolt from the various
subject races, and the alliance of the other
nations would necessarily select the proper
moment to strike, promising to the various
subject races their freedom and thus max
ing a common cause against the German
master.
Perhaps Germany would succeed IN
winning the loyalty of all these various
races. but she has not succeeded with the
| Poles in Posen, the Germans in Alsace-
/ Lorraine, the Danes in Schleswig, and she
has not been too fortunate with the Bel
gians her latest conquest. Short OF COM
plete supremacy there could be no suprem-
acy in such an empire, and at no distant
date Poland, Austria-Hungary, Turkey
and Bulgaria would resume their COM
plete independence. This would leave
Germany nothing for her sacrifices in the
present war; it might leave her terrific
rally smaller if the Poles Of Posen and the
Prussias were able to join their brethren.
But It is wholly unlikely that Germany
will attempt to create an empire OF the
sort that is forcshadowed by her most ro-
mantle publicists. The periis are too great
and the chance that Europe, still uncon-
quered, would consent to it is too small.
What she seems now to be asking for is
merely the joint occupation of Poland
with Austria and the partition Of Serbia
between Austria and Bulgaria, thus Civ
ing her an open road to Constantinople
through the territories Of her allies.
Granted that both conditions of peace are
finally imposed upon Europe, will the
profit be commensurate with German
effort, losses, with her 100000 casualties
and $4,000, 100000 debt?
Obviously not A change in political
control in Constantinople, in Bulgaria
would cut her road to the Golden Horn
Austrian craftsmanship might turn away
from Berlin leading strings if assured Of
Russian and British support. As for Po-
land, if European history in the last two
centuries means anything, it means that
the Poles will ultimately be free, and their
freedom threatens German unity in the
East.
No one at all well informed now ques-
tons the assertion that Germany would con-
sent to peace now, if in return for the evac-
uation of Belgium and Northern France
she were permitted to hold Poland, while
Austria held Serbia. Germans have sug-
gested the cession Of Metz to France, Aus
tria and Germany have offered Italy the
Trentino, Gorilla and Albania. But such
terms mean that the war is a lost war for
Germany. 1t means lost war because
the profits Immediately taken do not even
compare with the losses that must be met
at the moment of liquidation.
Beyond this lies the fact that Germany
will never again have the chance that
came in 1914. Great Britain had then an
available army of 100000 men. She will
necessarily have not less than 500, 900
hereafter. But if there had been 500 900
British troops available in August, 1914
would Germany have won at Mons. would
she have reached the Marine? Patiently
not.
And will the men and class that domi-
mated Germany in 1914 be able to per
suade the nation TO march with them
again? Germany believed in 1914. men Of
all ranks and classes believed. that Ger
man superiority was unquestioned, that
France and Russia would fall at blow.
that Great Britain was lettering to ruin.
that the empire of the world was within
the grasp of the German people and that
theirs was the mission to reorganize the
world on good German principles. 1t was
q ieRNiOii''t NOilFb'NlOl ~ ItpitStiNCu llolt
than a generation Of teaching, but it per-
ished in Champagne, in Flanders and in
French Lorraine. Millions Of Germans
know better now, and the truth will be
written IN the terms Of peace, even if
Germany gets what she is now asking.
Germany has lost the war because she
cannot now bring home any considerable
portion Of what she hoped to bring home
She has not crushed France, and she can
not crush France. She has not shaken
British sea power, and she cannot shake
/ it. She no longer controls Italy, and she
cannot again control Italy, save as she
Isubordinates Austrian to Italian interests,
and this would be fatal to her own. Ger
many has, above all, lost the war because
size must make terms with the British
fleet before she can resume her cop,r,or