The Washington times., 1915-07-30
PARIS AND WARSAW

It is too early in the new era of
cheerful feeling on the part of the
allies, to assume that brief checks
Of the German forces presage the
salvation of Warsaw. Such checks
are inevitable in such a smashing
and extended campaign. The events
of the last three months in the
eastern war arena point to the proba-
bility that the Polish capital will be
taken; and that probability persists
despite the really wonderful showing
of staying quality that the Russians
are making.
But on the other side it is not to
be regarded as certain that Warsaw
will fall. Twice the Germans have
made tremendous drives against it,
and twice they have failed to at
tain it. They got nearer to Paris at
the beginning Of the war than they
have ever been since, but Paris did
not pass into their hands. The War
saw Of today is defended by better
works than it possessed at the time
of the two earlier attacks. for the
Russians have had time to gridiron
the whole region with tho very kind
of Notifications that this war has
proved most effective. In short, the
lines about Warsaw have been devel-
oped much as have those in the west
ern theater, where the war has be-
come siege. Germany and Austria
have unquestionably concentrated
greater forces for the present Po-
land campaign than they put into
the east on either of the former oc-
casions; but they have been COM
PEELED to use great numbers Of poor
er troops because of the decimation
of their first-line forces. It is prob
able that on the average the Russian
personnel is better today than at
the opening Of the war, and the
German-Austrian. man for man,
poorer.
This is another way of saying
that, if Warsaw is not taken, it will
be a sharp suggestion that the in
evitable exhaustion process has be-
gun to tell on the Teutonic allies,
who have by far the less human re-
sources. Indeed, it will be so strong
ly indicative of this situation that a
failure before Warsaw now would 20
far to dishearten the central coun-
tries. It would remind them that
with all their magnificent prepara-
tion and the advantage of the tigers
leap at the outset, they had failed
thrice at Warsaw, failed FOR year
before Paris, failed at Calais. They
would have overrun considerable
area, but not have broken the enemy
at any point of primary Importance.
Indeed, the fall of Warsaw might
be bought at too great price. Ger
many will be constantly confronting
the need more and more to conserve
her store Of military lives. She may
have produced synthetic albumen,
and extracted nitrates from the air;
she cannot turn soldiers out of her
laboratories. To fail at Warsaw
would be to sustain frightful hu-
man and economic sacrifice without
conclusive results, and realization of
that fact is the best reason for the
expectation that Warsaw will be
taken. The two Kaisers simply
must take it; to fail would be
moral defeat even more impressive
than the military.
Grand Duke Nicholas is producing
a demonstration Of mastery capac-
ity in retreat; capacity worthy of
Washington, of Lee, of Joffre. He
has managed not to suffer a deter
minative loss at any time or place;
and the losses that have been inflict-
ed upon him he can stand better
than his enemy can afford to pay the
costs. If it is a question of NUM-
tions, the tide should presently be
turning in favor of Russia; for we
know that Archangel and Vladivo-
stok are choked with these; that
Japan, America and England, at
least, are contributing to the needs
of Russia; that there is every rea-
son to believe the point is near at
which the allies will begin to show
their superiority to the Germans in
ability to produce and to sustain pro-
duction.
Finally, Warsaw is not at last the
real prize. If the grand duke saves
his army, Warsaw will be good
deal of an emptiness.