New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1915-12-29
Successes in Raids
Mean Refusal of
u. S. Demands.
RUPTURE SURE,
is PARIS REPORT
Vienna Prefers Blocking
of Suez to Friendship
of America. =
from The Tribune Bureau.l

From The Tribune Bureau
Washington. Dec. 2S.-The news
that the Austrian submarine CAM
paign in the Mediterranean had been
so effective as to lead to the partial
abandonment of the SueZ route re-
moved about the last hope held by
officials here that any considerable
concession-such as could prevent n
break-would be made in Austria's
reply to the Ancona note. That re-
ply is expected daily, but no official
forecast has given the State Depart
ment officials an inkling of its tenor.
Such dispatches as have been re-
ceived from Ambassador Penfeld,
officials state, cannot be called
forecasts" They are being kept
secret.
Unofficial advices received here
to-day conformed with intimations
from abroad that Austria's reply
would fail 10 meet the demands Of
the United States, and Teutonic dip
lomatic circles here were authori-
tatiwly repr ,sented as being pre-
pared for a break in diplomatic re-
lations between the two countries.
The one concession which il has
been thought likely Austria would
offer was an assurance as 10 the
future conduct of her submarines,
like that which Germany gave fol-
lowing the Arabic case. If her cam
paign has been so effective as TO
make the Suez route too dangerous
for passenger ships, it is conceded
that there is little chance it will be
abandoned at the behest of this
country.
Break Brought Nearer.
In view of this situation the eX-
pectation of break has increased
in official circles. The determination
of this government not 70 recede
from its position reh.-ins unchanged,
and if, as expected, Austria merely
makes slight concessions, clothed in
friendly language n an effort to
shift the blame 10 America, a sever
ance of relations is regarded as in
eyitable.
Safety for Americans, it is realized,
cannot be gained by further discussion
so long as Austria continues her pres
ent iawless policy and little will be
achieved even if she gives assurances.
The course Of events since the famous
Arabic pledge shows that such prom
ise would have to be won from each
belligerent in turn, and as Austria is
now doing the work Germany promised
not to do, so after an Austrian promise
the purposes Of the alliance might BE-
served as we'll IL the submarines flew
the Turkish or even the Bulgarian
flag
Any offer Of arbitration, therefore,
which would continue negotiations
without even a promise of safety to
Americans in the meantime, would not
be accepted by this government, off,
cials admit. It is understood that Am
bassador Penfield has reported tenta-
tive offer from Austria along this line,
and that he has been instructed % re-
ply that any such offer would be a
mere waste of time.
Disavowai Impossible.
There has been little hope from the
first that Austria would give comple,e
compliance 10 the American demands.
Austrians and Germans have insisted
all along that disavowal would be
impossible. The demand for the pun
ishment of the submarines command
er, Of course, could be easily evaded
by reporting, as was done at first in
the Arabic case, that he was missing.
There remained the demand for repsra-
ton, and that Austria probably wouls
meet as Germany had donc-with
promise and an oner OF arpttraton o.
other means of arriving at the SUN 10
be paid. An answer embracing these
points. il was realized, would no' sat
isfy this country. but the chance re-
NAMED that there would ae an offer
Of assurances that would make il pos
sible to continue negotiations
This government did not ask for as
suranccs in either Of its notes TO Aus
Il. A
the dsavowal demanded, hat would
automatically provide assurances, be-
ing an admission that her policy han
been wrong Assurances would aave
given protection to Americans ghi,c
further discussion was in progress AMI
many had believed that this govern
ment would not force break in those
circumstances.
The rcportci success of the AuStYiaa