Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1915-10-24

Ter ana some recessions are noteo III
Bonds too. have made small recessions
on a business Of but $4,000 face value.
Information as to the earnings Of
corporations are badly needed In q
market as narrow as Washington. II
the stock exchange would exact this
Information from corpora lions. seeking
listing OF their securities 1t would be
a stimulus to more knowledge Of act
ual conditions and broaden the market.
/ Worlds Tariffs.
The National City Bank Of New York
In its current edition Of the Americas
lpays large attention to the probabili-
tiles Of general commercial treaties of
the world following the close Of the
European war:
THE war in Europe has raised dis
cussion of tariffs and commercial treat
les in every one of the great manu-
featuring and trading countries Of the
world. Before the war the nations OF
Europe that are now fighting were
commercially interconnected by an In
tional tariffs that had been adjusted
by years Of diplomacy-concessi
here and concessions there, arranged
return for reciprocal favors Cor sup
posed favors), and then automatically
obtained by still other countries
through the working Of most favored
Germany and Russia had commercial
treaty generally regarded as the most
deliberately developed thing OF the KIND.
The war broke the treaties between
hostile countries and nearly all the ma
tons found it necessary to put sur
charges, etc, on existing tariffs with
others still friendly in order to raise
needed revenue. And now 1t is recog-
mixed that when the war ends inferno,
tional interests and necessities Will
make certain the building up OF an en-
Itirely new tariff situation in Europe.
"The United States can probably no
more keep out of the coming readjust-
ment Of tariffs than we could keep out
| Of the financial and commercial tur-
moil Of the war itself. Many manu-
facturers are beginning to urge the ne
cesstty of some measure to protect our
Industries in case of a flood of dumping
Of cheap goods that they expect will
n ark the mobilization Of a worldwide
trade war to follow the military peace.
Some say we must have higher tariff.
emergency provision. This they desire
for the protection of our home market.
/ At the same time strong agitation Is
now rising. among business leaders In
jterested in the development of foreign
trade. for the government to begin the
negotiation of commercial treaties in
order to obtain for our exports fair
competitive field abroad, If not some
date commercial treaty. such as Ger
many, France, Austria, Italy. Russia or
: Japan have found advantageous to
their trade might involve some
1t is not unlikely that we are entering
an important public discussion. both of
tariff and of commercial diplomacy"
Curious Basic Movements.
Under this caption the Bache Review
has this to say:
THE bull market of 1918 started with
spectacular movements in an Industrial
stock which had been neglected for a
posed to be medium. Other stocks Of
more or less unknown quality followed
with similar manifestations. and expert
enced traders were convinced, for a time. |
that there was nothing in it. The new
element of war orders and war profits,
however. had not been reckoned upon
and the steady, widespread and enormous
Increase in these soon gave a more or less
sound basis for at least part Of the
advance, which was confined almost
wholly to industrials. It was an indus
trial bull market, with the railroads left
out. The railroads have not yet taken
much part in it. Bull markets usually
begin after long periods Of dullness and
depression, by activity starting in the
bond list When this has become SUBJ
stantial and marked. the railroads have
started up. after that the industrials. |
and the evidence generally of The termi- !
nation of the bull market is Just such
skyrockety exh. billions as took place in
comparatively unknown stocks at the
beginning Of the present bull market.
so far. then. the usual sequence of
reversed. Now there becomes evident
another Of the manifestattons-this also
out OF place. We refer to the movement
in bonds.
I'm the last four weeks the. bond
market has become active-not remark
ably so. but increasing more or less in
energy. This may indicate the beginning
Of the rise in railroad and other stocks
not directly associated with the war in
Huence.
1915 will have passed through the sew
eral phases Of bull market not in the
usual succession. but in more or less
reverse order.
There is no question as to what is
largely at the bottom of this stock
market 1t is plainly the same optim-
ism. much magnif1ed, and fed. it must
be admitted, by some very large por-
tons OF real profit-making by con-
stantly widening contingent Of con
supplying enormous war orders, main
ly at unusually large margins Of profit.
THE absence of real knowledge as
TO what these profits are and the buoy
be is what makes. or will eventually
| make. the speculation dangerous.
NO such imaginary quality pertains
TO railroad earnings, which causes
alive. while retaining some optimism.
Another factor which keeps the rail-
roads from any tendency to impulsive
advance is the possibility of foreign
selling, which materializes when prices
Of railroads ascend noticeably. or when
sterling exchange declines n1acipo a