New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1915-11-07

Initial Success of Ger.
many Means Failure
of British Darda-
nelles Campaign.
Copyright. 1915.
By The New York Tribune

able to escape development. It will break
one arm of the net
If the Allies can clear these two rail
roads, then they can steadily increase their
forces in Macedonia, until they are able 20
take the offensive against the Germans
and Austrians 10 the north and menace the
Belgrade Nish Constantinople railroad.
The safety Of the Serbian army will be
assured, but its position will unpleasantly
suggest that Of the Belgians clinging to
a tiny fragment Of their territory IN
Flanders.
Macedonia.
A second effect of Allied success to this
limited extent would be the destruction Of
Bulgarian hopes of gaining Macedonia.
They would, to be sure, hold that portion
Of Serbian Macedonia east of the Vardar
Valley, but this would be small reward
for their efforts and was offered 10 them
as the price of their neutrality by Serbia.
Conceivably. the failure of Bulgar hopes
would fan discomfort at home and lead to
a revolt against the Turco-German al
lance.
But 1t is equally necessary TO recognize
that the Allies may not be able TO get up
in time to Join hands with the Serbs and
the Serbians will either be enveloped and
destroyed or driven west into the Monte
negrin mountains. This would leave the
Allies TO bear the whole brunt Of an Aus
tro-German- Bulgar thrust down the Var
dar Valley and might end in their retreat
into Greece. It is the possibility Of this
which seems to have dictated the caution
which is being displayed in the Allied
advance. The situation in the Near East,
from the Allied point Of view. is certainly
bad enough without q new and real mill
tary disaster.
In the next few days the important
thing TO watch from the Allied side is the
success or failure of the Anglo-French
force in breaking the wedge that the Bull
CARS have driven in between them and
the Serbs between Uskub and Kuprili. II
the wedge is not broken then, even If the
Serb army escapes, It will be flung into
the mountains, where it may be destroyed
by starvation or made useless by lack Of
munitions.
What Germany Will Do.
AS to German purpose. that is in part
plain. It was essential TO open a road
promptly to the Turkish ally, who was
suffering from lack of munitions. One
road was opened when the Serbs were
driven out of the corner of their country
touching the Danube and commanding that
stream. This opened the river, and sup
plies and ammunition were promptly
dispatched by boat But 1t was necessary,
in addition, to get more satisfactory route
removed from Rumanian interference.
This road will be had when the German
and Bulgar armies meet at Nish.
There remains the possibility Of the en-
velopment and destruction of the Serb l.
army. Doubtless the Germans and Aus
trians will do their best to accomplish
this. The complete subjugation OF Serbia
would be extremely welcome TO Austria,
who might either deyastate the country
completely thus removing peril for
many years, or else, as has been suggested,
partition it, taking the western half and
giving the eastern TO Bulgaria. Final
ly, there is the opportunity to attack the
Allied army and drive it out of Macedonia
and conceivably out Of the Balkans. The
fate Of Sir John Moore's army in Spain
will be recalled, and an evacuation OF
Salonica might be as spectacular and inn
pressive as that Of Corunna more than
century ago.
On the other hand, the Germans, having
opened the railroad and river routes, may
content themselves with taking defensive
position south of these lines and leave it
to the Bulgars TO deal with the Serbs and
their Allies This is wholly possible, for
the country in Macedonia is hardly suit
able for offensive fighting. The winter
season makes operations difficult, and Ger
} many may prefer TO make her attack OF
England in Egypt In other words, she
may content herself with having opened
the road 10 Constantinople and let the
complete conquest OF Serbia go by the
board for the present.
! In any event, German success in the main
purpose of opening the road can no longer
be doubted. This spells the complete fail
ure Of the British campaign at the OAR
danelles and will probably lead to
prompt evacuation Of the positions on the
Gallipol Peninsula.
A Minor Phase.
In closing this review it is necessary to
remind the reader that, despite all recent
impressions 10 the contrary, this Serbian
campaign is a minor phase Of great war.
: 1t is incomparably less important than
e Napoleon's Spanish campaign, and in this
h case the part of the French is being
- ,larad hu the Cern1ans