New Britain herald., 1915-10-23
war it will have to struggle to retain but which it is not likely to lose.
 Most Important Factor.

but which it is not likely to lose.
 Most Important Factor.
 Foreign trade is still one of the most important factors in our com mercial and financial activities. Our imports continue relatively light for the obvious reason that Europe's ener- gies are devoted to producing commo- dities other than the luxuries which we are accustomed to buy abroad. Our export trade, however, Is expanding at a rapid pac and must be expected to grow. The export season for cot ton and grain is now on, and big ship ments from the United States and Canada will occur during the next few months, the financing of which will fall chiefly upon the United States Shipments of war munitions must also go forward more freely as early con- tracts are completed. The outlook then is for another huge excess of ex- ports during the next few months that will far outweigh the recent tendency for increased imports. Whether this will develop another crisis in foreign exchange or not, only event can determine. Exchange already shows signs of softening under the pressure of commercial bills; but with the advantage of last years experience to guide financial sentiment it would seem as if injurious effects such as oc- cured last spring can be safely guard ed against by anticipation. Great Britain is again sending gold in pay ment, $50,000,o00 having come by Canada this week, with more to fol- low. American securities held abroad have also been sent here in large amounts, so that by one means or an- other her debts are being paid more readily than foreign commercial statis- tics suggest to the uninitiated. Never theless, Great Britan and other coun- tries will not unlikely be obliged to seek further credits in the United States, for their borrowing and our lending limits have by no means been reached.
 Besides it is to our best interest to sell our surplus products and accept payments on a time basis when more immediate settlements are impossible. The arrivals of gold by the end of the year will probably reach s400, 1000, 900, bringing our stock of the metal con- siderabIy over $2,000, ,000,0 900. This affords an immense basis of credit, which has been further expanded by operations of the new reserve system. The fact is that our lending facilities are superabundant, and were it not for their employment in foreign loans, we would be surfeited with funds and in danger of plunging into riotous infla- ton. Capital has been steadily in- creasing in this country, in spite of the war. but the customary amounts have not gone into the development Of home enterprises, having instead been largely absorbed in the repurchases of our securities from abroad. Some au- thorites estimate that we have taken back fully sS00,000,000 of our securi- ties since the war began.
 Home Conditions Better.
 Home business conditions are grow ing more and more satisfactory. Un- der the stimulus of cheap money good crops and war contracts there has been a very decided revival of com mercial activities that has probably not yet reached it's maximum. Advices from the west are of an encouraging nature, and merchants are stocking up more freely in anticipation of good fall and winter trade. The railroads are already beginning to feel the bene- ficial effects of good crops Traffic managers anticipate a rush of freight and a scarcity of cars. In all proba- bility earnings of the leading systems during the last three months of the current year will show very decided gains. gross and net over last year. es- pecially in view of the increased rates which have been granted some lines.