The Grangeville globe. [volume] (Grangeville, Idaho) 1907-1922, 1915-04-15
GROUNDS FOO OPTIMISM.

A conservative but on the whole OPP
timistic forecast OF the effect to be
produced by the monthly swelling bal
ance of trade In favor Of the United
States is made by the National City
Bank OF New York. The bank reminds
us that 1.-THE present abnormal balance
Is due in large part to an uneven and
disturbed trade; that the recent heavy
export movement els due in part to
the fact that the movement was dam
med up last falr' and that the total
value of exports for the eight months
ending February was stin nearly S72.-
10000 less than for the same months
DIN the last fiscal year, but 1T predicts
that from the month Of March on
this year will doubtless show good
gains" 1t Dis remarked that the iarg-
est decline in both exports and imports
is in materials for manufacture, 1.-TWO
together rejecting the depressed state
OF manufacturing at home and abroad"
The trade balance must be taken
largely In securities. which lis not as
promising for new business, or for the
general employment OF all the people
as II we were building new properties"
Against the possibility that we shall
be building new properties at the same
time that this balance ts accumulated,
the bank cites the disorganization of
the worlds industry and trade, the in
ability OF some OF our best customers
to buy and our Inability to plan for the
future on the strength of the present
demand for war material. Foreign
money markets are closed to the
financing of our enterprises and are
selling choice old bonds. thus creating
81. I'M
tai for new undertakings. for investors
win buy "old and seasoned securities
and government obligations rather than
so into new enterprises In unsettled
times" Railroads are the leading fac
tor in expansion, but they ARE not In
q position to make heavy expenditures,
the cost of raising capital is too high
and the status of private capital In
this line is too unsettled for new de-
velpment.' AS result "there are
practically no offerings at this time
OF securities that represent new work.
and few new enterprises are being In
augurated.
More encouraging features as to
effect OF the favorable trade balance
are rehed from the menace Of further
demands for gold, which "enables us
10 10 OH with buSiA6D1 ~ tVht0 WIN u
sense OF security" while the Federal
reserve system Is another factor Of
safety. New capital il being created
every year for local investment and
this country is more nearly independ-
emit economically than any other. The
bank then holds out this cheering
prospect:
II hhere is any country in the
world that at this time may adopt
for it's motto Business as Usual"
that country ds the United states.
The goods that we export, for the
most part. are such as other peo-
pies must have. When the war
broke out. our principle problem
was how to market the COTTON crop
and now 1t has been demonstrate
ed that war or no war the world
will take a great deal of cotton
The demand for other agricultural
products Is Increased by the war
and when the farming community
is prosperous there is usually good
business In this country. The time
will soon be here when the crops
will be the largest single factor
in the situation. Without indulg-
ing in extravaganza expectations Of
what a record-breaking trade bal
ance win do. II crop conditions
are satisfactory, business should
soon be much better than It is
now.
This forecast Is backed up by re-
view OF conditions In beading indus
tries. In which. the bank says. "a hope
ful tone predominates''
While there Is nothing here to war
rant expectation of extensive new de-
velopment until peace radically changes
tine situation. there - everything to
Justify a steady increase In the present
volume OF ordinary business. There
is solid ground for confidence that
our supply Of surplus capital will be
largely increased month by month so
long as the war continues. Sir George
Paish says an the London Statist that
'sthe United States Is swimming In
gold and. though, as he says, 1t will
be a waste of resources to import much
more, we continue to accumulate the
equivalent of gold in the shape OF
credit The longer this process of ac-
cumulation continues. the greater will
be the quantity filling our reservoirs
and the larger win be the volume Of
capital let loose for investment in
new developments when peace opens
the sluices.-~Oregonlan
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