Norwich bulletin., 1915-11-20
second international war would be

second international war would be certain to ensue.
 In consequence of this general sit- uation, MT. Ijuin, while not a partisan of formal alliance with Russia at the present time, strongly recommends that Japan and Russia maintain their existing cordial relations and be ready to face any emergency that may arise in connection with the Chinese prob lem He said: "The policy of Japan and Russia may have much to do with maintaining peace after the European war; Nations will fight to prevent calamity, but some of them will fight quicker to maintain commerce; and this renders the Chinese question very delicate one. Whether there certain to be a peaceful war of com mercial competition in China In this struggle for commercial supremacy some nations must inevitably take an inferior position, leading to bitter dis satisfaction and danger, as they benoid the prosperity of the conqueror."
 The ex-minister thinks that the Japanese need have little fear of com petition in arms, but that they cannot be so sure of themselves when it comes to the peaceful competition of com merce. Japan must therefore do ev- erything to ensure a commercial vic tory. If Japan made an alliance with Russia, most publicists would un- doubtedly think that it would be large ly to guard against Germany. The sudden recovery of Germany" wrote MT Ijuin, would be terror to Japan. Of course, it is natural to suppose that Germany will do all within her power to divorce Japan from China and to do everything possible against the inter ests of Japan. But Japan may hope to be immune from German inter ference for at least four or five years after the war. before which time Ger many cannot be expected to recover former conditions. At any rate, Japan has no real fear of Germany, else she would never have declared war against her. Japan entered in the war with Germany with her eyes wide open to the results"
 The minister's idea was to keep the
 Anglo-Japanese alliance secure, and
 wait patiently for more light on the question of the proposed Japan Russia alliance. If the latter is consummated the greatest care should be taken to see that it initiates in no way against the alliance with Great Britain.
 The developments of the situation in China-the reports of unrest and pos sibility of outbreaks, and especially the movement for a restoration Of the monarchy-are causing good deal or concern in Japan and form the sub
 ject for ministerial conferences. Japan | will presumably fulfill a programme based on the principle that, as the
 great neignboring oriental power, she | holds or should hold the predominant | ing role in the affairs of China. Ac- cording to the newspapers here. in case l China decides to return to the mon- archy, Japan is likely to take the lead l in securing the recognition of the great l powers for the new form of govern ment. President Yuan-Shi-Kai is ! quoted as being desirous of making l sure that the new imperial govern ment would receive recognition from I the powers before taking the final
 steps, and as being convinced that he
 must first secure the recognition of
 Japan as emperor. feeling that after
 ward Japan's allies-Great Britain,
 France and Russia-would fall into
 line. The attitude of the United States. on the question of recognition is a question that furnishes a great
 deal of speculation. One wriSer says: | ''But even if the Washington govern
 ment should refuse to fall in line with other powers under the apparent lead
 ership of Japan, it is believed that it will not affect other governments in
 taking concerted action in giving the necessary recognition to the new gov- ernment in China"