The watchman and southron. [volume] (Sumter, S.C.) 1881-1930, 1915-09-18
COTTON TO RISE after WAR,
WILL REACH FIFTEEN CENTS
WHEN PEACE COMES.
II. G.. Scales Noted Future Operator
Points Out Factors Which Make for
High Prices.
New York Times.

with James A. Patten In the 1909 cot
ton pool as n member OF the socalled
Big Four" and who was reputed to
have made and lost fortune of S1O.-
100000. Is n bull In the present cotton
market. Mr.. Scales talked for publ
cation yesterday. II was the second
time I'm his life that he ever did such
thing. but. as he put II. he felt he
was justified. The first time was In
1909. when another big cotton opera
tor tried to promote plan for hoard
Ing cotton In the South. "E. c." as
tho Street" calls Mr.. Scales. thought
such plan would be ruinous and
he told his Texan friend not to be
foolish.
Yesterday IL was the European war
that caused "E. G." to talk. There
was such confusion In the minds of
cotton growers and dealers as to the
effect OF the war on cotton. he said.
that an "old timer" might help to clar-
ify the situation.
"And don't think I'm going to give
you an optimistic interview because Of
my market position" said the opera
tor. To-day am long less than 5000
bales of cotton. 1 have studied the
cotton market intensely for 20 years.
and am basing my calculations on the
governments figures"
a.
had better ego into hibernation'' be-
fore IL was too late. Every sign indi-
Gated general prosperity. he insist
ed. and cotton would share In that
prosperity. The South was fortified
with plenty OF money. he said. and
would prevent any repetition Of last
The bears were all wrong. he said. and
would soon find out that their argu-
ments were net well founded.
This is n time for optimists. the cot
ton speculator said. and the govern
ment's figures. showing a 16 per cent.
reduction In acreage. should convince
any one OF that. While admitting that
n sudden peace would upset the mar
ket temporarily. he gave 1t as his
view that within a month after peace
was declared there would be a great
scrambling among nations for this
country's cotton.
II can see nothing but good busi-
ness In America. at least for the next
few years." said Mr.. Scales. THE
steel mills are busy. and that is the
test. America has the stun to sell,
and big business must be the result.
The cotton mills are not loaded
up with cotton. and neither are the
merchants. wholesalers or retailers.
They are all carrying the minimum
OF cotton In stock. These people must
buy eventually. In addition Europe
will use great deal more of cotton
In the next few years than she used
I'm the last few years. Things once
made Of silk In Europe will be made
OF cotton after the war is over. MY
idea Is that the stocks OF dry goods
throughout the world are down to
low ebb. other countries being worse
on than America.
so 1 maintain most strongly that
there Is an enormous short interest
In cotton. America next season will
consume between 100000 and T.
100000 bales of cotton. Europe takes
6b per cent. OF our cotton, and the
short interest will be even greater In
Europe than In America. The short
Interest I'm actual cotton Is the most
enormous In the history of the cotton
trade"
In this connection Mr.. Scales main
tained that when the buying of the
mill owners did begin in earnest they
would find themselves In competition
with the spectators. There would
be wave of speculation, he said.
similar TO that I'm the stock market
when the war stocks adjusted them
selves to new conditions
There's Germany" continued the
cotton man. The other day she Of
fered to buy 1000. 900 bales OF cotton
at 10 cents pound. delivered In
Bremen. Before this years crop has
passed away Germany will buy that
cotton and store 1t I'm America await
Ing peace for its shipment. and Ger
many will pay rs cents for 1t here"
We'll, what do you think will hap
pen To the price OF cotton" re-
porter asked.
NOW L am not going to advise
farmers what TO do with their cotton"
he replied. II can only give them
my idea OF the future price. / am