The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1915-07-05
FINANCIALREWEW
OF The PAST WEEK
Prospects Of the New Half
Year in Wall Street and
General Business.
REASONS FOR CONFIDENCE

year rtOcks were suoJecteu " iuf'hef
various tests. but with the apparent re-
suit only Of corroboratins previous evil
dence that they rest on a stout founda-
ton. In various ways the market gave
proof that the temper Of the financial
community possesses a quality Of very
reassnring fortltude. Is both cool and re-
Elective. conducive to the deliberate for
nation Of intelligent judgment and any
thing but prone to unstable excitement.
Testimony was afforded among other
things to the optimistic conclusions as
to our financial situation which have
been shaped BY events In the war. There
was a pronounced expansion Of foreign
liquidation Of our securities. particularly
or high grade bonds which have been
d~islodged In Great Britain by the new
British war loan. but sales for foreign
account were readily absorbed. Then
again there was the episode Of the sink
Ing Of the steamship Armenian. How
rapidly American finance receives its
training nowadays II denoted by the un-
excited fashion Of the stock market re-
Spouse to the news of his affair. which
was at first Indefinite enough to leave
room for apprehension that II added ma
terlally to the difficulties OF our contro-
versy with Germany. The inference
from recent developments Ia that the
banking and business community lie gain
Ing ability all the time TO receive with
composure the minor as well as major
shocks which the war IL bound TO gen
crate.
Altogether by its action of late abe
stock market plainly intimated the prob
able nature OF the answer to the Ques-
ton which In being widely asked. What
IL the financial ana business proepect
Of the new half yenr on which we have
entered" Taking everything into con-
sideration. the outlook encourages conf
dence that between now and the end o:
1915 there will rot only he further re-
covery in volumes and values but a
recovery which may deserve to be re-
garded as fresh expansion.
Adjustment "a the War strain.
While peace propagardas OF belliser-
ent and neutral origin are persistently
urged our finance Ii accepting the Idea
Of a prolonged war In Europe and Is be-
coming used to II. Affairs here have
been pretty well adjusted to the strain
OF a p~rotracted conflict, and our men
Of Affairs are preparing TO make the hes;
OF II. II has been demonstrated hat II
viii take a great deal to shake our for
NAL neutrality in the war. but II Ia be-
ginning TO he seen that even should the
worst come to pass in this respect It
would mean. economically speaking. in
crease OF activity and not contraction.
When the L.usitania was blown up a
halt was called In the " move
ment which had begun in general busi-
ness m financial activities suffered q
setback. o more than "A month n dis
position to resumption has been In abey-
ance while everybody has been waiting
on the determination OF our relations
with Germany. hut In the last analysis
all that this slgnihed was tina: We
had been abruptly compelled to enter
tain u new idea OF large Importance.
that the United States might he drawn
INTO the war. however DESTROYS VI re-
remaining aloef. In all probability the
financial and business situation has
more or less completely accommodated
this possibility. which albeit remains
somewhat remote.
IL Ia coming to be better understood
that shocks and disagreeablc surprises
must be anticipated on occasion while
the war lasts and a state of mental pre-
pa redness il being %engend-r.d which
will enable business to 20 forward cUur-
ageously rather than recklessiy or to
stand timidly still. In Ii large view Of
the situation the past through which
We have just come to the present IL the
most substantial justification Of an az
gressively hopeful confidence In The
financial and business movement 81 the
neal future. There was nobody wise
enough anywhere In the world to predict
last autumn the progress IN recovery
from panic and d'smay and depression
which We would make In the first half OF
1915. That progress Is warrant now for
assuming that II will he carried on In
the last half OF the year. even though
there are many uncertainties and ad-
verse influences which obscure forward
vision.
In our new Federal reserve banking
system we have most fortunately sup
plementcd tn" resources Of our ordinary
banking power. and meantime these
resources have been mira %culously aug
mented by the war born trade which has
given American finance International
command. Financially We are not only
equipped to endure the strain which the
war communicates to all countries out
aide OF the actual area OF hostillties
We are equipped for expansion Of en-
terprlse. even new enterprise. Never has
the business situation been character
ICED by No thorough an elimination OF
weak elements an the statistics Of com
merclal mortality In the past twelve
months show. The country IL down to
a bedrock basis on which to build anew.
and building has been going on.
Signs OF this are Enthusiastically wit
messed In the gains Of gross earnings
which the railroads have been reporting
for May. Most OF the metal markets
are very strong. copper. for example.
never having been before this put on q
level Of 90 cents a pound without. the
employment Of ~artiice. The steel trade
Is so per cent. more active than It was
in January and Is growing both In pro-
duction and consumption. Toe much of
what is called general business liz still
in a state OF slackness. but all our his
tory Is an argument for expecting that
the slack will be rapidly taken up once
the Improvement of trade and Industry
begins to spread beyond the lines which
have been most directly affected by the
impulses derived from our foreign trade.
Even in the field of domestic politics
there has been Improvement under the
compulsions which the conditions caused
by the European war have put on our
politicians to yield "A more deferential
attention 10 business requirements. That
radicalism had been checked was first
indicated by the November elections
That a change was at work in the cur
rents OF public opinion bearing on bust
ness was subsequently evinced by the
Interstate Commerce COMMISSIONS out
line OF a new policy OF railroad regula.
tion In the Eastern rate case and by
IA series OF constructive court decisions
involving the application OF the statutes
against monopoly to corporate organiza-
tion and conduct Of trade and industry