New Britain herald., 1915-02-27
BUSINESS SITUATION i. NOT SATISFACTORY
Only in Agricultural District Is
 There Any Normal Activity.
Especial to the Herald.)

Special to the Herald)
 New York, Feb. 27.-The financial markets of this country are still con- trolIed by war news-the strain of the desperate European conflict being daily more and more manifest. The intense financial strain abroad was very sharply reflected in the recent collapse of exchange, from Whlch there has been only a partial recovery, In this country the serious derange- ment of our foreign trade resulting from the war has produced big excess of exports which, though flat tering at first sight, is adding to the general complications. In settlement for our large exports We must take either gold or securities, or else grant extensive credits until more con- venient circumstances for settlement arrive. Gold we do not need. because We have an ample supply on hand and regularly produce a surplus for export. London needs gold vastly more than do we, and it is to our own interest to aid and not embar- rass London; although considerable sums have been engaged at Ottawa for New ! ork and more may follow. At the same time we are taking con- siderable amounts of American se- curities from foreign holders, and under present conditions may con- tinue this absorption if the induce ments are sufficiently great. Before the war is over some very impor- tant shifts will occur in our foreign exchanges. Remittances abroad will necessarily decrease owing to re- duced foreign holdings as well as to reduced profits and dividends. Tour ist travel abroad will be practically nil this coming season. and the two or three hundred million dollars which Americans usually spend every year in foreign countries will be largely kept at home; incidentally to the advan- tage of American railroads and hotels. There will also be a material decline in immigration, which has already fallen heavily and is a factor of some consequence in our international trade balance.
 Shows Effects of War.
 Our foreign trade plainly shows the effects of the war. In January the total exports of merchandise were $267, 7,S00,000, or $63,800.0o0 ahead of last year. About s44, 4,OOo,00O of this increase was credited to breadstuffs alone and $3,OO0,OOO to meats. In
 
 shipments of war materials Some im- portant losses, however, had to be taken into consideration, including a decrease of about SS,000,000 in cot ton and $2,OO0,O0O in mineral oils. Our export trade, though satisfactory in volume, has been seriously de- ranged; and the heavy shrinkage have only been compensated for by shipments of foodstuffs and war ma terials. The demand for the latter is liable to sudden fluctuations. Should the DardanelleS be opened allowing the free eXpOrtatiOn of Russian grain that must inevitably have an impor- tant eeffect upon our own exports of wheat; and when peace begins to dawn, we may expect a drop in the orders for the munitions of war which have hitherto usefully filled the gap in foreign orders. In imports there was also a heavy loss, the total for January being S122, 0,000 a de- crease of $32,5O0 1000, compared with the same month last year. This left an excess of exports of $145, 900, compared with s300,000,00O a year ago. A more reliable indication of the effects of war on our foreign commerce will, however, be found in the country's record of exports and imports for the past seven months, or since the war began. Our total ex- ports within this period have been S1, 1884 100000, or 87,000,000 less than the same time last year. Imports were $930, 100000, or s137, 900, 900 less than a year ago. Here is loss in exports and imports com bined of S324, 100000 in the short space of seven months. The fact that the ex- cess of exports has dwindled $50,- oOO,O ,OOO in the last seven months is somewhat of a surprise. How far this Arrangement of our foreign trade will extend, it is impossible to estI- mate. Much damage and confusion has already been done, but we are likely to remain more fortunate than any other nation, as long as our abil- ity to ship foodstuffs, cotton and war materials is unchecked. Any stop page of these through an embargo or other causes, will add to the de- rangement which already exists in our foreign intercourse.
 Business Not Satisfactory.
 The business situation at home is not satisfactory. Only in the agricul- tural districts is there any normal activity and genuine hopefulness. In other parts of the country there is sane determination to make the best Of things and keep cool under irri- tatlng conditions. But war has so