The Pensacola journal. (Pensacola, Fla.) 1898-1985, 1915-07-20
Are We To Have
a Business Boorn7

New York in the Worlds Work, and
he cites numerous facts and instances
to sustain the theory that this coun-
try will experience an era of adj
vancing prices such as is already
existent in Europe, and he concludes
that 'under such circumstances large
profits will accrue to the business
man who is content to become an
opportunist while still preserving his
facility of mental detachment from
the mob when its frenzy is approach
ing the point of exhaustion" This
opinion rests upon the assumption
that there may be wild speculation,
for he remarks That "the culture beds
Of the collective human mind seem
just now peculiarly hospitable to the
germs of febrile inflammation" says
the Manufacturers Record.
To introduce his argument Mr..
Price alludes to a book written some
years ago by Edwin Lefevre and
called "The Golden Flood It mar
rated an illuminating piece of fiction
showing how seriously stocks and
bonds could be affected by a sudden
influx Of gold in enormous volume.
The story pictured its hero as having
secured control of the gold war re
serve of Russia for the purpose of
making a coup in the market, al
though the bankers where he made
his deposits thought he had realized
that dream of alchemists-the trans
mutation Of the baser metals into
gold-and they hastily began to ex-
change their money for interests in
productive properties of various
kinds, while there ensued a panic,
with falling prices in bonds, and sim
ultaneously a wild advance in stocks,
'"The economic chaos brought about
by the European war" remarks Mr..
Price, promises some effects that are
quite as fantastic as those pictured
in the Golden Flood"
For the seven months ended June
80 he says that the value Of exports
from the United States to all coun-
tries will probably exceed al imports
by more than Ss0o,0O0,oOO (the fig
ures are not yet compiled), while the
exports to Europe alone during tbs
same period will exceed imports from
Europe by at least 81 ,000, 900 900, anc
for the thirteen months which viii
end December 81, 1915, it seems
probable that exports from this coun
try to Europe will exceed our i'm
ports from there by at least $1,500,
100000. The balance due the Unitet
States, he observes, will have 10 b,
paid in either American securities
held abroad, the available supply o.
which he thinks nearly exhausted; il
European securities or promises t,
pay, which do not seem to be &C
ceptable here, or in gold. Russian
exchange is "a per cent below nor
NAL, German Ia per cent, Italian IL
French 4, and English 1 1-2 per cen
below. Allowing for the dificultie
of transporting gold in war times, h
says it is plain that the maintenance
of specie payment in Europe has beel
practically abandoned, and admission
of the fact will be duly made if tn
war continues. This means imitation
that business in the warning countrie
will be conducted by means Of
credit currency, as was the case i
the United States during the civ
war, when at one time it require
more than 81 worth of greenbacks t
purchase 81 in gold. But this countr
win remain in the position Of bein
able to demand gold in payment fo
what is sold abroad, with the resul
that much European gold will com
here to pay debts and more will ais
|, arrive for safe keeping.
/ The surplus reserve of the nations
banks as reported by the conlptrolle
of the Currency reaches the enormou
total Of $7s6,oo0,o 900. Although tn
reduction of the legal limit of re
serves made by the Federal Reserv
Act partly explains the great surplu.
it must be remembered that it is t
be compared with normal excess g
something less than 500, 700 900, an
F. A. Vanderlip, president of the Ns
tional City Bank of New York, sal