The Union times. [volume] (Union, S.C.) 1894-1918, 1915-09-17

ChouShC1ul MINDS but that the SouUh's
cotton crop is going to be worth $3.50.
OOO,OOO to the men who own it next
spring, but it is worth only $50O,O0O,S
OO0 to the producers at present prices
and 1T is to save to Southern grow
ers and to our Southern country this,
extra quarter of billion dollars that
the united energies of press and peo-
pie should now be directed. The fun
damental facts seem to me to be
clear:
l.. Cotton, even though the new crop
OF 1915 has started coming on the
market, is still selling on the basis of
prices fixed by last years 100000
bale crop. fG
2. These prices must soon be ad-
justed, however, to fit the conditions
of 10000, ,000-bale crop Tor prob
ably only a 100000 or 11,OO0, 900
bale CROP, and this adjusted price
ought at the very least to reach 12
cents a pound for middling.
AS briefly now, as clear argument
will permit, / wish to point out and
emphasize the truth of these state
ments.
ii. The Worlds Demands Justify
Twelve Cents.
Assuming even a 12,OO0,OOO-ba
yield of Southern cotton this year.
(and it will probably be less), this
years world production will be g.
100000 bales short of the worlds con-
servatively estimated consumption
during the coming IL months. That
is to say, the world will consume
every pound of this years crop and
100000 bales of the present surplus.
Secretary Haster of the New Or
leans cotton exchange estimates last
years Southern production (not the
commercial crop) at 17,004,93O bales.
The United States government esti-
mate (16,134,930 plus 791,464 lint
ers) is 1926, IT,
600, 900 bales. This was over 2,0OO,-
900 bales in excess of the 1913 crop.
Now what happened with this
bumper $1,000, 0,000-crop in spite of all
the demoralized conditions of trade
and finance-the crop of which it was
said last fall we should not export
100000 bales? The facts are that
the world used so much of it that the
total worlds visible supply of all cot
ton in midsummer this year was only
5,453, ,168 bales against 1922, ,276 bales
year before. In other words, with
1900, 1000 bale Southern crop toShan-
die, the worlds visibn. supplyH
creased only 100000 bales. WExty
is going to happen this year then,
with the South offering 100000 or
100000 bales less-and the produc-
ti6n of other countries also de-
creased? And this query brings me
to another point:
ii. The Worlds Crop Prospects JUS
tify Twelve Cents.
Mr.. w. P. G. Harding of the federal
reserve board early in the summer
secured reports from consular officials
all over the world indicating a total
cut in the worlds cotton crop .his
year of 100000 bales, Egypt and
India reporting radical reductions in
acreage" Since that time the prose
poets have further declined.
But even if we accept this early
over-estimate of the crop we see that
if last years crop, being 100000
bigger than this years, yet increa asad
the surplus only 100000 bales, then
this years crop will leave a 3,0OO,-
600 bale defcit-to be drawn from
the surplus.
The facts are, however, that even
- l2OOO,OOO bale estimate for the
South now seems too high. This is
not simply my view, but the view of
many experts, including SO conserya-
tive and competent an authority as
the New York Journal of Commerce,
which has just declared that in view
of present conditions, "the yield
seems likely to be nearer 100000
than l2.00000G bales" And now
comes the Wall Street Journal, itself
quoting William S. Halliburton of
Daniel O'Dell & Co., as saying: "The
current seasons crop may be as low
as 1O,50O,000 bales. 1t is entirely
within the reach of present condi-
tionS that we shall see 1919 cent cot
ton before the end of the season."
These two authorities base their
estimates chiefly on condition reports
from all over the South, but might
have added the further testimony that
the South cut its fertilizer consump-
tion this year from 4,431 900 tons to
100000 tons-almost in half-and
the effect of this cut will probably
make itself most evident from now
on as closer scrutiny is given the
fruiting Of the crop.
The reader can easily see for him
self, therefore, that if we have only
1O,0O0,000 bale crop, the factories
of the world would utterly drain the
market dry, leaving it subject to such
conditions as occurred few years
ago when spectators carried prices
to II and 20 cents a pound. 81
And now having pointed out that
IL cent prices are justified because
the 1915 crop is certainly 100000
I'd possibly 100000 bales short of
the worlds demands, meaning that
factories and munition factories will
consume all the present yield with the
greater part if not all the worlds Wis
ible surplus, | also wish to call at,