New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1915-09-29
The New Crisis.

age forecast and silence prophecy ''OiN
are still patent signs that the third great
crisis Of the world war is at hand, II 1t
has not already been reached.
The first crisis came with a suddenness
that can hardly have been equalled since
the Waterloo campaign. Out Of the
silence of two weeks in Allied bulletins the
vast German horde suddenly emerged al
most within sight Of the walls of Paris
German triumph, Teutonic world en-
pire" as Bernhard had outlined 1t, sud
denly seemed inevitable and immediate.
The imagination, if not the spirit, OF the
civilized world was suddenly captured by
German might.
The first crisis ended with the battle OF
the Marine. After that tremendous con-
fict the world began to readjust itself TO
war. not a triumphal Teutonic ava
lanche And after the German failure 1t
was the Russian campaign that heid the
world audience. Day by day this cam
pairn mounted until after the fall OF
Przemvsl the huge Slav host climbed TO
the crests of the Carpathians and the col
lanse of Austria seemed within sight. The
German victory Of the Dunajec ended the
second crisis. Neither France nor Aus
tria was destined to collapse under first
assault.
Now. from April to the end Of Septem-
Der we have been witnessing one more
stupendous campaign. Upon Russia dow
after blow has been rained. Her armies
that stood at the Carpathians are now
behind the Dwina and approaching the
Beresina and the Dnieper. For weeks
Germany has asserted, Allied capitals
have denied with obvious misgivings, the
approach of Russian collapse. Russia,
Berlin told US after the Dunajec, after
the evacuation Of Warsaw, in the retreat
from Wilma. was nearing the end Of her
resources.
Russia out, a victorious promenade OF
the Central Powers to the Golden Horn,
the reduction Of Serbia to the estate OF
second Belgium, the enlistment of Bull
garia. the relief of the Turks at Gallipoh,
new threats to Suez and even India, these
were possibilities, Germany proclaimed
But all predcated upon the elimination Of
Russia.
Yet reading the bulletins that now come
from the East. there is sound reason to
believe that Russia is far from out. From
Riga to Rumania she is on the offensive.
Once more Austrian armies have gone
down before her. The redOubtabe Mack
ensen has been repulsed, the ever victor
ious Hindenburg halted. The rains are
beginning and the decision, despite the
marvellous victories, the enormous con-
quests. is still beyond the grasp of the
Teuton.
BY contrast there is breaking out in the
west stupendous new battle. For six
months the western campaign, save for a
single operation about Arras, has been at
standstill. But in those six months
every factory in France and in England
has been making ammunition. Half a
million British troops have been equipped
and sent to the firing line; another half a
million are ready to go. Three million
troops, after a summer Of rest and train
ing, are pounding at the German line in
Flanders and France.
What is Germany to do? She has spent
a million, perhaps a million and half, Of
Austrian and German lives in the eastern
drive. To recall corps from the east now
is to insure safety in the west, but it is to
give Russia months to reorganize. Napo-
leon found the same difficulty fighting on
two fronts. He could crush the Anglo
Spanish forces, but before the conquest
was complete marshals and armies must
be hurried to the east, from the Ebro to
the Oder.
respite for Russia now means new
Russian offensive in the spring. But to
turn east again in the spring means to in
vite new western offensives. The whole
progress of the war has proved that Ger
many can attack only on one front. But
so large have been her losses that there are
many military observers who believe that
by spring she will lack numbers for a
grand offensive in the east
At the full tide of her success, at time
when the Kaiser's eminence may well re-
call that of Napoleon in 1910, there is
denied to the German Emperor all hope of
the one prime essential, and that is peace.
He set out to crush France and failed. He
was forced to turn against Russia, and
while he was fighting Russia France re-
covered. Britain began to come up and
Italy enlisted. His victories have been
magnificent, but utterly indecisive. He
has advanced not conquered; his foes are
driven but not crushed, and new armies
come with each month.
What will this mean to the German peo-
pie? The European population of the
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