The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1915-05-03
REDFIELD PREDICTS
A BILLION BALANCE
Booms a Ship Purchase Bill
and Twits G. o. p. Editors
on Foreign Trade.
SAYS CRITICS ARE BLIND

wAsHrNaroN. May 2-Secretary Of
Commerce Redfeld has written a letter
to Senator Stone Of Missouri predict
Ing that the trade balance in favor OF
the United states will have reached the
enormous total OF $1,000. 100000 by the
end Of the current fiscal year. The Sec
rotary attacks the Republican editors
who criticised the Democratic tarin,
launches another movement for ship
purchase legislation and halls the pres
en-, Democratic Administration as the
advance agent Of great prosperity Here
is the letter:
DEAR SENATOR: am sure you will
be interested in the facts respecting
| our foreign trade and Its reaction upon
our domestic commercial and financial
situation.
stated briefly. our exports for the
nine months OF the fiscal year ending
with March 81 have reached the un-
paralleled total OF sl.o33iI5,5so. in
dicatlrg an approximate total for the
full fiscal year OF s2,750o 100000. The
apparent balance In our favor on mer-
chandise transactions in this foreign
trade up to April Il Che data for half
| OF April being estmated) is $751;
100000 Unless some Unforeseen change
In the export movement occurs this ia
/ vorahle balance will reach. II not ex-
coed. thousand millions during the
current fiscal year. This is OF itself
sufficient to make American hearts glad,
but certain factors add greatly TO It's
weight.
IlDIt ut Wars start.
1T includes the month OF August.
| tn ha hasa in
our exports for fortnight resulted in
an unfavorable balance OF sla,o00.oOo
II liz coincident with the absence OF an
expenditure on the part of American
travellers abroad. estimated at net
about $40 900. 900 per annum, and also
with the absorption by us OF large but
undemanded amounts of American Sc
curities owned abroad. by reason OF
which the in,eres, on the securities thus
purchased is now paid to US instead
of TO others.
"Not only. therefore. is the favora.
bile balance rema rkahle in itself hut II
is not subject to the offsets that have
heretofore been usual.
at IS OF course a pity that we ar,
stu paving such high rates for ocear
transportation that foreign carriers ar
! thereby prospering at our cost while W.
, remain IN the humiliating position o
dep. ndng upon foreign navies TO pro
t.ct the movement of our own commerce
which We ought to control. hut do not
, From the Far East. as well as from tn,
Atlantic. comes the cry for shipping
and IL is speaking conservatively &
say that the business movement which
shows such wonderful results would b.
|, grcauy enlarged II vessels were avail
able under American control TO taxi
, tine traffic whence and whittier America,
commerce desired 10 have IL go
Some Republican editors are funn,
fellows. more fac.le In fancy than IA
ml!sr with facts. They unite marks'
: powers OF assertion with wonderful
/, gift Of forgetfulness. The facts of TO
! day being hard for their digestion the,
!, 60 back year and talk about the bal
: ance OF trade in April last, with both
singular omission to stat. the facts q
that time and the facts which followe
: the enactment Of the Payne Aldrich Law
Of evil memory.
Density Of the Editors.
. Every one knows who reads--hut gu
friends. the editors. n they read do no
L say it--that what they call the defici
II for April, 1914 was duc 10 the increas
= In imported food arising from our ow
= shortage al that time and from the In
u crease OF crude materials which We d
not ourselves produce or produced In
sufficiently FOR use in our manufacture
: On the export side for that month IN
u decrease was in shipments Of food
$ stufis which We could not spare and /
II crude materials. viz, coal and raw col
= ton. II was In the item Of fully fnishe
" manufactures that the decrease wa
u least.
Not only. therefore were the cor
ditions Of which our friends so Oft,
and so fecby write tho outcome Of eli
cums,ances which had nothing 10 d
with any law but they are treated
our friends with an amusing fOrgetfu
ness of their own past.
N ''lf they look Al the year following n
Payne -Aidrich tarin law, which bega
IT'S brief career on August 6. 1909. tn.
will md that in March, 1910. there ":
what they call an adverse trade balan,
n Of over slg,00o.0O0 There was no vi
~ then to shu, Of our trad,. but il was M
until August Of 1914, when the war Il
shut our exports of for time, Thu
the Payne law deficit was equalled
"Not only so. hut IN the year viii,
followed Tn" passage Of the Pawn
Aldrich law there were 1--WE months
- which there was an adverse trade ba
, ancc,
." II is hard 10 see how our friends f,
u editors therefore escape the Conclusl
%. hat by their own arguments the Ia
= turv favor was a failure II ad
d. S,eng;h to this 10 point out that despi
nj the deficit on which they leaned
A. much In April. 1914, the trade halar
ny for he ten months Of tina, fiscal We.
&c which included April. showed fay,
able balance 81 100000. 600, while d.
IN ing the ten months ending with hp'
e. 1910. most OF II under the Payr
- Mdrich tariff and the rest under
TO piugley tariff. the favorable balar
II WAS hu, slGs 600 900
ly