Daily capital journal. (Salem, Oregon) 1903-1919, 1914-06-29
HENRY CLEWS' WEEKLY
FINANCIAL LETTER

New York, June 20, 19l4.-Notaing
has yet occurred to break the prevail.
ing inertia which hangs over nearly
all departments OF business. Some
hopes of greater activity have been
Justly based upon our magnificent
wheat crop and continued easy money.
But such anticipatiOns seem to have
heen unfortunately smothered by the
Mexican uncertainties and cOngressOn-
al discussions. All fair-minded men
will cOncede that there is worldwide
slowing down of business due to econ
Omic causes. Germany is still feeting
moderate reaction from the activity
Of the last few years and the Balkan
war France has been suffering from
disturbed political conditions. Great
Britain s phenomenal boom seems to
have reached a climax and a natural
geactiUn is on, while the w10lc ,ontin-
Mt Of Europe is feeling the hur5en Of
cushing military end nav, -, .tpars
Il ether portions OF the world, aich AZ
lima, Japan, India and South America,
he tendencies are also more or legs re
dictionary. The situation in, the United
States, however, varies somewhat in
important particulars from other coun.
tries. We have had no real boom in
this country since the panic of 1907, al
though a very fair recovery followed
that crisis. While the rest of the com
mercial world mas been persistently
slowing down for nearly two years.
We have had much liquidation, and our
principal industries have been running
on short time during considerable
period. Economy has been practiced in
many directions, and as result this
country is remarkably free from the
overriding which is at bottom of the
world. Briefly, this country is in an
excellent condition, commercially, in
dustrially and financially, and is will
ing to take fresh forward start at the
first opportunity; the situation here
with few exceptions being unusually
sound There is one great obstacle to
such a recovery and that is lack of
confidence. Possibly from even a
strictly economic standpoint, tle time
for fresh start is not yet ripe, since
readjustment may not be entirely com
plete, and there would naturally be a
disposition to await greater certainty
as to the forthcoming harvests. Busi-
ness men must soon assume a more con-
fident and hopeful attitude. There is
no longer any uncertainty about the
tariff, no uncertainty about the bank
ing bill, and no uncertainty about the
Panama canal problem. Moreover,
there is less uncertainty about trust leg
islation; and the Mexican problem,
though unsettled, is much less serious
than month ago. All sides want
peace. The rate decision still hangs
over the market like a cloud, and il
would be unwise to expect too mucl
from the interstate commission. Some
concessions may be made to the rail
roads, and if that august body should
manifest fair and judicial spirit to.
wards the railroads, there will be little
cause for real apprehension as to their
decision. Very soon this uncertainty
will also be a matter of history, and
the security markets will be compare
lively free for a period from many
heretofore adverse influences; especias
Iy should congress adjourn on or before
the first of August, as is intimated in
some quarters.
The most helpful factors in the bust
ness situation are the crop outlook
easy money, and the fact that many
lines of industry nave been running or
short time while consumption has beer
going on at nearly the ordinary volume
The steel trade cannot shut down G
per cent of its product indefinitely
when rails, rolling stock and Other
products are wearing out under ordin
airy use. Our textile mills cannot fol
ever keep their product below the nor
NAL when consumption is going alons
with little if any contraction. The
whole country has been undergoing +;
process of semi starvation, and the ex
haustion of supplies will ere long com
pei renewed activity. In the grain dis
tricts there is already feeling Of