The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-03-08


ton before the end u the century. tn
coal supply win not last moro thAa
three centuries.
These are the opinions Of n. N. Dlclr.
con, professor Of geography a Univer-
.lty College. Edinbursh. sad pcsss1sat
Of the Royal Mstsoressgsaal oeeleay.
Ills conclusions rsGardiao ~ wosiGs
food and coal supply ars heesd % .
careful study Of the subtsel IA
The day Of striking geographical q.
plorations passed With TIE anding Of ~
ear,h's two polss." s1io Prot DlG0tsoa
in the course oe a isstevisw. IN "a.
,ure geographsr wila hAvs = M Assa
the vital qusstisa = bbDplyfne anA a.
,ribu,ing food anA cl1lAss 10 the, world
civilized man - o. ssght y ~. be-
Ginning to realiae (Aat - feauclnG more
and more Of the surfaoe - IL sarth
available for assicuieuFs y vaae -
considers a hAbitsbls ednlnt1an, ~ y
making so much pro0rsas ana 0ak,n8
2 so rapidly that the problem Of Andns
suitable food soe bis inossasang nunabsss
must become urgent 10 . fsw esuere-
ions. We are getting into the position
q the merchant whose trnoa v cen.
.tantly expanding and who fsrssees that
his premises win shortly ~ TOO small
for him. In our case rsusovsl to more
eommodious premises slseWhere seems
,mposslble-we are not likely to and .
means Of migrating to another planet
90 we are driven 70 consider meaaseof
rebuilding on the old cite. and making
the best OF what We have. that our
business may not su6er.
In 1898. Sir william Crookes pre-
rared some valuable estimates OF the
worlds supply Of wheat. Which. ~
he pointed out, y The most sus.
tanning food grain Of the crest
Caucasian race. Upon these estimates
he made forecast Of the relations BE-
tween the probable. rates Of increase OF
supply and demand and concluded
that should an the wheat grow.
ing countries add to their (producln0D
area to the utmost, capacity on the most
careful calculation the yield would give
us only an addition Of some lo0.O0o.0oo
acres, supplying, at the average world
Weld Of 1877 bushels to the acre. l.37o..
900 900 bushels, Just enough to supply
the increase Of population among bread
eaters till the year 1881 Sir william
then added. Thirty years 10 but day
in the life Of q nation. Those present
Who may attend the meeting Of the
British Association thirty ysars hsacs
will Judge how far my forecasts are
justified
Half the allotted sppa has now
elapsed and It may Be useful to inquire
how things are going. Fortunately. this
can easily be done. up to . certain point
: AT any rate, by reference to . paper
published recently by Dr. J. F. Unstead.
in which comparisons are given for the
decades 1880, lS91.1soo and lSo1-1e.
"Dr. INSTEAD shows that the total
wheat harvest for the world may b
estimated at 1888 million bushels for
The first Of these periods. ISIS million
Cor the second and 3.233 million for the
third increases Of IL per cent. and ~
per cent. respectively. He points out
that the increases were due mainly to
an increased acreage the areas being
1872 2ll and 243 million acres. but also
&. to some extent (about per cent? to
an increased average yield per ere. for
while in the first two periods this was
twelve bushels, in the third period II
rose to thirteen bushela per acre
IF we take the period 1SSl-lsoe. -
nearly corresponding to Sir William
p Crookes's initial date. we md that the
succeeding period shows an increase Of
sbs million bushels. or about half the
estimated increase required BY 1881.
and that attained chiefly By increased
acreage.
But signs are not wanting that in.
crease in this way will not 90 on In.
definitely. In the two later periods the
percentage Of total wheat produced
which was exported from the United
States fell from - to -. and only In
the youngest Of the new Countries
Canada, Australia, the ArGentine-do We
is significant that In the United King.
dom, which is. and always has been. the
most sensitive OF all whsaA producinS
countries to variations In the 0pating
supply. the rate At failing on Of home
production shows marked u irregular
dlminution.
Looking at II In another way We and
that the total amount sent out by the
great exporting countries averaged In
lssl-s0 2s5 million bushels. loel-lSoo
<O2 millions. lse1.1o 80 millions. These
quantities represent respectively IL.
1855 and 1911 per cent a the total pro-
duction. and II would sppsa' that the
percentage available for export from
these regions H. for the time at least.
approaching it, limit; In other word1
that only about ona-sixth OF the wheat
produced Ii available from surplusss n
y the regions OF production for making
eeod deficiencies elsewhere.
There Is. on the other hand. album.
, dant evidence that improved asTiculturl
y beginning to raise the yield PER acra
over large part Of the producing area
Between the periods lse1-so and it0l.l(
the average In the United States rosa
from ~ to II bushels, IN Russia from
to 10, in Australia trom to 10. h u
likely that. In these last two cases q
least, a part Of the increase 10 0u(
merely to more active occupation q
>. fresh lands a. well - to use q Moe>
suitable varieties OF seed. and the efRec(
Of improvements in the methods Of cul'
avation alone II more apparent IN TIN
other countries. During the Ame periot
The average Yield Increased IL the Unite
Kingdom fp0gn - In ~ hannhola. n