St. Johns review. (Saint Johns, Or.) 1904-current, 1914-07-17
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IN JIle DuSlUbSS WOIlu nave dlJtl-
mated in seven year periods is
pretty conclusively proven by j.
M. Hawthorne of Seattle, who
has gained his information from
Government reports, Dun's,
Bradstreet's and numerous other
authentic sources. He has de-
signed and prepared a chart
showing the seven year periods
between 1886 and 1914, which is
highly interesting. In 1886
seven good years began; in 1893
seven bad years began; in 1900
the good year period again open
ed; in 1907 the bad years began,
and this year the seven good
years begin. While the chart
only outlines the years between
1886 and 1914, within the mem
ory of most adults, yet Mr..
Hawthorne states the same con-
ditions prevailed for at least the
past one hundred and sixty-nine
years. The author has the fol-
lowing to say regarding It:
This chart, together with the
explanations and comments, was
written after a somewhat ex-
haustive examination into the
periods of prosperity and de-
preston which have existed dur
ing the past one hundred and
sixty-nine years. Much TO my
surprise ] found that periods of
prosperity and depression had
alternated, at least, since l745,
and that such alternating per-
iods had existed in all CONNER
cial countries at practically the
same time.
There is really nothing sur
prising about alternating per-
iods of prosperity and depres-
sion any more than there is
about summer and winter, day
and night, heat and cold. mega
tive and positive, wet weather
and dry weather, the swing of
the pendulum. or the rise and
fall Of the tide.
II is a fact of history that
panics are International, and
that they have embarrassed
every commercial country at
practically the same time.
The great majority of mankind |
have supposed that panics were
caused by free trade or low
tariffs or high tariffs. when, as
a matter Of fact, they have
Frustrated every commercial
country at practically the same
time regardless of its tariff or
lack of tariff. To illustrate:
The panic period which com
menced in 1897, and which. if |
history repeats itself, il about |
at an end, prevailed all over the
business world. II broke in this
country under the Dingley high |
tariff existed under the Payne
Aldrich high tariff, and has con-
tinued under the Underwood low
tariff.
IL has ravaged Canada under
Il moderately high tariff and is
very severe there today.
Western Europe with varying
tariffs suffered from il and Eng
land under free trade was dis
tressed by il.
During the same period its
palsied hand was felt in South
Africa. Australia. India, China,
Japan. Argentina and Brazil.
generally, panics like
commerce are International. |
They disregard Presidents. Kings
and Emperors and pay no heed |
10 parties in power or policies
in force.
The present depression i'm the
United States would have existed
just the same if Mr.. Taft had
been reelected or if Mr.. RoOse-
welt had succeeded. Present
would have been as
they are il the Payne-Aldrich
tariff had not been repealed.
Why?
Because conditions are prac-
tically the same today in Eng
land under free trade and i'm
France and Germany under high {
tariffs as they are i'm this country.
The conditions which have
preceded every period of pros ,
Derity since l745, and which eX- 1
Ist today, are given on the chart {
under the heading, "Dawning
Prosperity" Among the con- {
litions noted are "A lack of con- {
idence" and "A vast accumula- {
ton of money in the banks far {
in excess of the required re- \
serves" {
In no instance do those re- ,
luired reserves exceed 25 per
,ent. but today all over the
United States there is in the S
banks approximately 40 per 7
cent of all of their deposits. In i
Seattle some banks have in their c
,aults over so per cent of their I
deposits. Ii
These conditions of a lack of c
confidence and vast accumula- p
ions of moneys in the banks c
existed in 1885, just before the &
'oom period which commenced h
n 1886 and existed in 1898 and i
arly in 1899, just before the n
even year boom period which a
'egan all over the country i'm ii