The Birmingham age-herald., 1914-05-04
FINANCIAL CIRCLES NOW HOPEFUL 0F MEXICAN OUTCOME South American Attitude Will Be of Far-Reach-
 ing Consequence PROBLEM WILL NOT BE ENDED WITH PEACE Many Authorities Believe Some Sort of Benevolent Despotism Will
 Be Necessary to Pre-
 serve Order
By HOLLAND.


 to an inquiry which was made by the president of one of the large New York banks who sought competent opinion re- spectine the result of the Mexican medi- ation plan, one of the leading authorities on international law replied that the best feature of 1t Is that 1t provides way by which the controversy can be settled without drastic action on the part of the United States and without the personal humiliation of Huerta. He was inclined to think that although the proceedings may be prolonged, nevertheless they will at last make it possible to put to an end the warlike attitude which now charac- terizes the relations of the United States and Mexico.
 It Is this view which is believed to have caused healthful reaction in the securi- ties market The financial district seems to be persuaded that the combined ef- forts of practically all of the South American nations, with the moral sup port which is to be given to this attempt by the great nations of Europe, will be likely to avert war. The question put by the bank president is of immediate practical importance on account of the large financial obligations which indus trial railroad and other interests in Mexico were bearing at the time of the outbreak with creditors in the United States. How narrow the escape of some of these creditors was is illustrated by the experience of one of the larger cor porations which had sold considerable invoice to the authorities of one of the railroads running from Vera Cruz to Mexico City. The commodities were de- livered to the railroad company about the time of the Tampico incident. Only a day before the government of the Unit ed States took resolute and aggressive attitude at Vera Cruz this corporation received a draft payable at large New York bank for the amount of money due upon the invoice, which was consider able sum. Had there ceen delay of day or two this payment would undoubt- edly have been postponed.
 There are a good many American cor poratons and merchants that have open accounts with the managers of Mexican industries. These accounts have been until recently eagerly sought because. on the whole, the credit of Mexican bus mess men is excellent But if there were to be war it would be inevitable that not only would all business with Mexico be stopped, but the payment of business obligations would be procrasti mated possibly for long time.
 A corporation which has been promi- nent in the Mexican export trade has ceved recently many orders from that country The managers of this corpora ton deemed it expedient to inform their Mexican customers that for the present they would be compelled to demand spot cash before they would undertake to de- liver the orders.
 After Mediati0n--What?
 The authority. on international law to whom the bank president appealed for information went beyond a brief reply to the question: 'Will mediation be suc- cessful?" He stated that while in his view this mediation would prevent war. nevertheless very serious problem will arise after the mediators have accom- plished their immediate work. The at- tempt will be made to establish con stitutional government m Mexico. Yet the opinion of competent authorities Is that the Mexican people are not yet ready for real constitutional government. Some thing may be developed which will as- sume the outward form of a constitu- tional government. but it will be the shadow and not the substance of it.
 The best opinion in this city seems to be that what Mexico will need, after medlat1on has averted war. will be government which In fact although not in name will be something like a benev- olent despotism Under competent lead ership of that kind the people of Mex leo can be so instructed that they will have good understanding of what con stitutonal government really is. Some of those who have had long experience in Mexico are of the opinion that the great majority of the people gre as ignorant of constitutional government as are the majority of the people of the Philippines. This ignorance Is not confined either to Mexico or to the Philippines Competent authority which has recently been brought into personal touch with condi- tions in China has reported, in addresses made within a few days, that the at- tempt to establish real constitutional government in China is a fordorn hope. Many years must pass before the Chinese people as whole have good un-