The Meeker herald., 1914-07-04
SOLVING THE WIND
One Big Problem That Bothsrs
the Weather Foreoasters.
CURRENTS THEY CAN'T STUDY

CURRENTS THEY CAN'T STUDY
Atmospheric csndttis~s Away Absvs
the Earth Ar osysnd Thsle Rsssh
and Ar Consequently unlsns~n Fss-
tsrs-Aas%heds sf ths kneisWts.
The art Of predicting the weather 4
one In which II Seems at nrst sight the
modern scientist ought easily to sur
pass his ancestors. Yet II may b.
doubted whether hs h really more
successful In II than they were. The
meteorological department boaatsd
some time buck that their forecasts Of
weather a. published in the daily prsss
were justified By the result in h2 PER
cent Of the cases recorded. Az tbs par
centage of correct guesses In q sun.
ciently extended list. however. would
exactly equal the Incorrect. this does
not show 4 very great superiority for
scientific methods over pure cOn3se-
ture.
Yet the meteorological department.
enjoys the advantage. ~ our ancss-
tors. Ut course. did not. Of eiabosate
and accurate recording instruments.
like seccht's meteorograph. togsther
with telegraphic reports from weather
stations dispersed nearly ali over the
surface Of the globe. Its relative non
success shows perhaps that there b
still factor in the problem which Il y
at present impossible to estimate.
This n the more extraordinary b.
cause the modern method ct forecast
Ing the weather differs entirely fron
that practiced BY the ancients. With
them Il vas simply question Of tame
and season. or. what b the same thing.
Of the appearance or disappearancs Of
certain starr.
When Hesiod's u*bandman saw the
Pleiades be knew II was time for him
to begin bis harvest. and when they
set forty days iater. his piowinx. Thia
might still b. good enough rule for
countries near the equator. where the
prevalence Of trnds winds. which blow
uninterruptedly In the direction In
which the sun appears. to travel.
and whers the mouiQons. which In the
countries east Of Shex blow for six
months the other way. help to keep the
weather. II not constant. yet regular.
In other ATTITUDES. however. these b
no such help. and he who would pre-
dict the weather must therefore con-
dns himseif to finding out what winds
are blowing in other parts Of ths
world and when they are likely 70
reach him.
A. to thia modern scisnes stu -
peada mainly on the obsssvatioos mA4e
by taafisy. WIN discovsred II ne -.
siitesnth century dnsing 4 ysyaot ~
ths trspics bow tho sun 70 warmsd IT,
air at the equator that the hsated III.
rising after its manner, dispersed itnsaf
toward the poles and was replaced by
rush Of cold air from the regions
further from the sun.
This. which explains the phenomenon
Of trade winds. was really the founda-
don of modern mete0rology. altl,ough
II was reserved for HALEY. some nfty
years later. to point out that, thanks 30
the rotation of the earth on its own
axis, both kinds OF winds stray some
what from their apparent objective.
Later Doves "law Of rotation was
discovered. which declares that in GER
tain latitudes the wind will nearly al
ways follow the suns motion-i. O.. will
pass from N. through N. e.. and from
B. q. to h.. completing the circle By
passing from y. to N. through the
west. but will very seldom move the
reverse way.
Finally. there comes In what y
known a. the law of Busy Ballot.
which u that. In the northern bemi.
sphere, II one stands with ones hack
to the wind the line Of lower pressure
= always on ones left hand.
This enables us tO understand what
! b meant by the cycionic and anti
cyclonic Disturbances which arc 20
frequently mentioned in the oflciai
forecasts as approaching Ms. general
y from the Atlantic.
II within any particular spot the
pressure IL lower than II II outside It.
the wind blows round It in the CON-
trnry direction to the hands Of q
watch and ID called cycionIc from the
similar behavior Of the West Indian
hurricanes named cyclones. This u
because the lowest pressure to any
one standing with his back to the wind
b always on ones left hand. II. how
ever. the pressure within the area In
question Il higher than outside It. the
wind blows rOund It clockwise and h
called anti-cycionic.
One circumstance aRainst modern
methods Vt forecasting the weather
correctly outweighs all thOse In their
favor. The winds that can b. OBJ
served are all those blowing Gloss to
the earth's surface. What II the e3-
feet Of the currents prevailing at even
few miles above It. where, a. avia-
tors constantly declare there are even
''holes" and ''pockets' In the atmos-
nhn~~S nuta1 th~nn In uzox~ SufNxxua.