The Butler County press. [volume] (Hamilton, Ohio) 1900-1946, 1914-01-30

Atmospheric Conditions Away Above
tho Earth Are Beyond Thei- Reach
and Are Consequently Unknown Fac
tors-Mcthods of the fncients.
The art OF predicting the weather IL
one In which it seems at first sight the
modern scientist ought easily to sur
pass his ancestors. Yet 1t may be
doubted whether be is really more
successful In 1t than they were. The
meteorological department boasted
some time back that their forecasts OF
weather as published in the daily press
We're justified by the result in 52 per
cent OF the cases recorded. AS the per-
ciently extended list. however. would
exactly equal the incorrect. this does
not show a very great superiority for
scientific methods over pure conjec>
ture
Yet the meteorological department
enjoys the advantage as our ances-
tors. of course, did not, of elaborate
and accurate recording Instruments.
like SecchIs meteorograph. together
with telegraphic reports from weather
stations dispersed nearly all over the
surface OF the globe It's relative non
success shows perhaps that there Is
still factor In the problem which 1t is
at present impossible TO estimate.
This is the more extraordinary be-
cause the modern method of forecast
ing the weather differs entirely from
that practiced by the ancients. With
and season. or, what is the same thing.
OF the appearance or disappearance Of
certain stars.
When Hesiod's husbandman saw the
Pieiades he knew 1t was time for him
to begin his harvest. and when they
might still be a good enough rule for
countries near the equator. where the
prevalence OF trade winds. which blow
uninterruptedly In the direction In
which the sun appears to travel
and where the monsoons. which In the
months the other way, help to keep the
weather. If not constant. vet regular.
In other ATTITUDES. however. there is
no such help and he who would pre-
dict the weather must therefore con-
fine himself to finding out what winds
world and when they are likely to
reach him.
AS to this, modern science still de-
pends mainly on the observations made
by HALEY, who discovered in the sew
enteenth century during voyage In
the tropics how the sun so warmed the
air at the equator that the heated air.
rising after its manner. dispersed itself
toward the poles and was replaced by
a rush of cold air from the regions
farther from the sun.
This. which explains the phenomenon
OF trade winds, was really the founda-
tion Of modern meteorology, although
1t was reserved for HALEY. some dfty
years later. to point out that, thanks to
the rotation OF the earth on its own
axis. both kinds of winds stray some
what from their apparent objective.
Later Doves law of rotation" was
discovered. which declares that in GER
tain latitudes the wind will nearly al
ways follow the suns motion-i. e.. will
pass from n. through n. e., and from
s. e. to S., completing the circle by
passing from $. to y. through the
west, but will very seldom move the
reverse way.
Finally. there comes IN what lis
known as the law OF Busy Ballot
which Is that, in the northern hemi-
sphere. IL one stands with ones back
TO the wind the line of lower pressure
Is always on ones left hand.
This enables us to understand what
is meant by the cyclonic and anti
cyclonic disturbances which are sc
frequently mentioned In the official
ly from the Atlantic.
II within any particular spot the
pressure is lower than 1t Is outside it
the wind blows round 1T in the con
trary direction to the hands OF 9
watch and is called cyclonic from the
similar behavior OF the West Indian
hurricanes named cyclones. This Ii
because the lowest pressure to any
one standing with his back to the wini
Is always on ones left hand. Ii, how
ever, the pressure within the area IL
question Is higher than outside 1t. tht
wind blows round 1t clockwise and Ii
called anti-cyclonic.
One circumstance against moderr
methods of forecasting the weathe
correctly outweighs all those In thei
favor The winds that can be OBJ
served are all those blowing close K
the earth's surface. What is the ef
feet of the currents prevailing at ever
few miles above 1t. where, as ayia
tors constantly declare there are ever
holes and pockets in the atmos
phere? Until there is more informa
ton on this, meteorology will not b.
an exact science.-Detroit Free Press
Wished He Hadn't Spoken.