The Ronan pioneer., 1914-12-11
may KILL $4,000 /
IN YEAR OF WAR


Principal Wars of the Last Half Cen
tury and the Possible Losses of the
Present Great War" for the American
Underwater, of which he is the editor,
Edward BunneIl Phelps makes an in.
terestins estimate Of the past and fu-
ture mortality resulting from the fight
Ing in Europe, basing his estimate on
the death rates Of the Union army in
the civil war. the German army in the
Franco-Prussian war, the British army
In the Anglia Boer war and the Japa-
nese army in the Russo-Japanese war
On the probability of the death rate
In the present war approximating the
average death rate of the four armies
Mr.. Phelps takes the position that the
tendency OF modern military sanitation
and steel jacketed bullets to reduce the
death rate will be more than counter
balanced by the application of newly
discovered forces to the mechanism of
war and the practically continuous
lighting since the beginning of the war.
the present war will exceed materially
the average death rate of the recent
wars
How Estimates Are Based.
But he does not think this excess is
certain enough or will be sufficient to
make his comparisons valueless, so be
goes on to give his estimates. BY his
statistics the average strength Of the
Union army was S06,755 men, Of whom
GLOSS were killed in battle. 43,O12 died
of wounds, 224.5SG died Of disease, and
24,S72 died from accidents, making
total death roll of 359,52S. or 1859
deaths Il year for every 1000 men en-
gagged. The corresponding figures
the other three armies given are:
German army. average strength 723,-
55G; killed in battle. 1852; died of
wounds. 1,O23; died of disease, 1914;
total deaths, 4O,7G0; ratio OF deaths,
5000 per 1000 men. The British army.
average strength 20S,32G; killed in bat
tie, 5.7111; died of wounds, 2,O1S; died
of disease, 1920: total deaths. 22.005;
ratio, 4O2 per 1000 men. Japanese
army. average strength. GJO,O0O; killed
in battle, 473S1; died OF wounds, H.
425; died of disease. 27.lI2; total
deaths. sJ1,o54; ratio, 1913 per 1000
men
Mr.. Phelps finds that the total num-
Der of men engaged in the four ar,nies
was 2.3SS,G37. and that of this number
50S25G died from all causes. making
an average of oO.1 deaths year for
every 1000 men engaged,
Figures on Basis Of Year.
"ShOuld the war continue full
year." he goes on, ''nt this rate of NOR
tality the total number of deaths n
the cOntending armies will range from
about 100000 to 100000. as the average
fighting force varies from 5OOO.UOO to
1O,OOO.OOO men"
If the average fighting force for the
year is G.WN,NOO Mr. Phelps estimates
that 100000 will die. and adds that II
this happens. "one year Of the present
war will cost more lives than all causes
will demand among the entire adult
male population OF the United States
In 1914" the presumptive approximate
male mortality in the United States
being 100000 in the present year.
But even so. Mr.. Phelps considers
that the death of Il soldier is not more
probable than the death Of a civilian
within certain time limits. He COM
pares the death rate OF soldiers with
the death rate of civilians, given in the
American Experience Table of Mortal
ty and finds that soldiers chances
For living through year OF the war
ire greater than those of a civilian
for living from the age Of twenty five
to the age of thirty-siX. from thirty
% fortyone. from thirtyfve to forty
i've, from forty to fortynine. from
'orty-f five to fifty,two. from fifty to
fifty six, from tifty-tive to sixty or
rom sixty TO siXty.three Years.