The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-02-23
Significance Of February Lull
and Recession in the Secu.
rites Markets.
PARIS A POINT OF STRAIN
Railroad Affairs Engage Atten-
tion-The Mexican Imbroglio
Is Disturbing.

OF values which was carried on 90 rapidly
In leading security markets Of the world
last month. Except for the sustaining in
huence OF cheap credits II Is likely that
the midwinter advance would have given
way to definite reaction. but Of reaction
there has not been enough to warrant the
application Of the term TO the course Of
security prices There has been IA re-
cession from top figures both at home and
abroad. but the feature In the past fort
night has been less the change Of prices
than the decline OF trading and the fact
that the markets have paused IN their for
ward movement. This is quito natural
and timely. Distinct reaction would not
have been surprising In view OF the fac
tors of uncertainty In the prospect, but
that the markets should quiet down a bit
is altogether reasonable.
Inclusion Of all markets In the survey
Is advisable because they have been gov
erned In recent years by common causes
and seem likely to act more or less in
unison In the future. The affairs OF Wall
Street are not local. provincial as that
community has been accused OF being, and
not only national but international forces
are effective there. There are foreign a.
we'll as domestic explanations of the lull
which has overcome the Wall Street stock
market this month, and IN addition to the
influences Of the immediate twelvemonth
Il Is customary for sluygishness to show
in quoted values in February while gen.
eral business is completing its winter let
down and energies and resources are ac-
cumulating for the real work Of the year.
1t would not be possible to draw any
trustworthy conclusion Of forward bearing
from the stock markets OF tho last two or
hut 1Sa eL.vv
that they have constituted a very natural
phenomenon. Circumstances called for at
least letup In the pace of financial re-
covery In order to permit an inventory OF
the gains already made and to take note
of the conditions of further effort.
II is interesting to compare the infu-
ences which were so pronounced in jan
uary with their present appearance Stock
markets have a way Of measuring the gen.
eral business position and outlook and
the matters which affect quoted values are
OF concern to a much more numer ous CON-
munity than that which consists OF the
dealers In securities. Save for the contin-
ued ease in money most OF the matters
which engaged SO much appreciative no.
tice month or SO ago and promoted %
much optimism have lost more or less
effectiveness. II will be recalled that the
impression produced by tho rapid and
worldwide fall OF money rates after the
turn oil the year was intensified III various
ways and on various accounts. Europe
Interpreted the relaxation Of tho money
markets as signifying for ono thing that
international politics spelled peace and
this helped to increase me now OF cash
to financial centres.
Salutary consequences OF protracted
liquidation In all countries were implied
in the easing Of funds, and both In our own
country and in Europe the passage Of the
new Federal reserve law was construed
as a guarantee OF a continuing certainty
OF monetary ease. What was called
the revival Of confidence contributed its
assistance TO the relaxation Of the world
long financial tension, and the growth OF
confidence was assisted by tho aspects of
money as we'll as by other things. Here
IN the United States the worlds relief
from strain was shared. while domestic
incentives to the recovery of confidence
were supplied. Patriotism rallied TO the
support OF the national Administration
when 1t evinced a solicitous regard for the
restoration OF prosperity. Favorable con-
structions were placed on the political
achievements Of 1918. Hopeful prognosti-
cations were INDUCED respecting the rela-
lions Of politics and business In 1914, and
the belief became prevalent that there
would be no long interval between the
manifestations Of stock market improve
ment and the demonstration of actual
| betterment In general business.
For the differences which now appear
between the past ana present conditions OF
sentiment ana expectation there are OBJ
nous explanations. Their PROBABLE sig
nihcance Is that the financial markets have
discovered thar the recoru or 1914 not only
| did not have to be but could not be made
up before the close OF winter. There IL
no less solid justification than there was
while since Tor believing that new
| constructive period In economic enterprise
has been entered upon. but events have
inculcated tho Importance OF making
haste slowly IN reversing such a move
ment as was under way last year. Ever
money does not look quite as cheap anc
easy as 1t did. although the changed sit
uation In money Is the most substantial
fact In the economic inventory. 1t ha,
been revealed both abroad and Mt hom,
that recovery could be conducted at too
| swift pace for financial markets which
had only recently been 80 greatly deblli
tated and that some Of the ingredients o.
hopeful sentiment apparently require re
enforcement. This lie particularly true o.
those elements Of confidence which depend
on the activities and outcome Of politics.
During the past week events abroad
| have shown that calculations must be re
vised a little IL the money markets ar,
not to be subjected to the risk of a sud
den return to a state of strain. som,
Of the later offerings of new securitie,
in London have failed of popular sub
scription to any but a small percentase