The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-11

not badly in the North. India and the
East could he quickly overrun and con-
troll SO firmly established that nothing
short Of a catastrophe in Europe could
undo II.
One thing alone might stand in the
way. The opening Of the Panama Canal
this coming year would provide the
Triple Entente with another sea route
to the East through which third and
fourth rate English ships could pass in
sufficient numbers to dispose of any
force which the Triple Alliance could
spare from the Mediterranean. The
results even Of victory for the Triple
Alliance will be limited to Europe in
all probability. once the Panama gate
way to the Pacific Is available.
Again, 1t seemed TO Austria advisable
To move before the Balkan nations
had recovered from the physical and
financial exhaustion of the recent war.
Weak, they could easily be overrun
and We're of little advantage as allies to
| the Triple Entente; strong. they might
become thorns in the flesh, constantly
menacing the rear.
For the nonce factors at home were
as favorable to the Triple Alliance as
! they were unfavorable to the Triple
Entente. The new German army meas
ures were practically completed: the
Austrian and Italian armies strength
ened and improved. The German
fleets efficiency had been enormously
| increased by placing all the modern
ships on war footing.
No domestic difficulties of Importance
| hampered the action OF any of the
| thpaa
over, only too well aware that the situa
ton was likely in the immediate future
to change for the worse.
First and foremost. the aes and III
health of the Emperor of Austria made
his death possible at any time and even
the partial disruption OF his empire
would without question destroy the
offensive land perhaps the defensive)
force Of the Triple Alliance and provide
the Triple Entente with a favorable
opportunity for aggression which they
would not be likely to let pass.
The Hungarian plans for independ-
ence were no secret: the schemes for
the creation OF third Slav MONARCHY
out OF southern Austria were far adj
vanced among the plotters and had had
support las necessary COMPROMISED
from influential statesmen in Vienna
at one time or another. The murder OF
\ the Arcthduke was, It was feared part
OF this scheme, and prompt action
against the chief offenders was mean
to postpone or prevent its execution.
These were the real causes OF the
Austro-Servian war: the dlsadvantag,
OF the moment to the Triple Entente
its advantages to the Triple Alliance
the belief that the balance might be.
fore long swing so decisively the other
way that action might become impos.
sible and might even so decidedly favor
the Triple Entente that the latter could
take the field with almost complet,
assurance OF success.
Let us beware of saying that Aus
tria advisedly began a general Euro
pean war or that Germany was anxiou.
to fight They have neither of then
ever been anxious 10 fight for wha
they are determined to have unles,
they can obtain 1t In no other way.
Properly speaking. therefore, the tru,
causes OF the declaration Of war up },
Servia by Austria lie less In the do
mest' relations ~ the two countrls,
than in the general European situation
in the fourth week OF July, 1914.