Newark evening star and Newark advertiser. [volume] (Newark, N.J.) 1909-1916, 1914-08-01
EUROPEAN WAR
WOULD |NJURE
u. S. BUSINESS
Governments Scientific Econo-
nnists Say Consumer Would
Ultimately Be Sufferer.

WASHINGTON. Aug. IA general
European war, from the standpoint Of
the governments scientific econo-
mists, is bad for business In the
United states, or anywhere else. for
that matter It's first effects NAV an
pear TO be otherwise; it's ultimate eff
feefs. which cover a far longer period
OF time, are calculated to be severe
check upon foreign trade. Thus. the
average economist looks upon war as
thing inimical to sound business,
and, in the long run, disastrous.
Experts In the department of COM
merce, who are peculiarly interested
IN the development of the foreign
trade Of the United States, are in.
clined to list the effects of a Euro
pean war in the following order:
l. The initial shock of the financial
and trade markets of the world, &C :
companied by fluctuating prices. the
dumping of securities into the mar
kets and general excitement and un-
certainty as to the future.
q An artificially stimulated demand
for foodstuffs and manufactures, re-
sulting in increased shipments from
the United States
3. The effect upon the home mar
ket OF such a foreign demand, involv-
ing increased prices to the American
consumer.
4. The reaction, due to the inability
of foreign nations involved in an ex-
pensive war to buy, and also to prob
able embarsos upon commerce, maxi
ing the risk of shipping prohibitive;
the withdrawal of many foreign ships
now engaged in the merchant marine
service, due to their employment as
naval auxiliaries and army trans
ports: the reduction of the export
trade, with its consequent effect upon
manufacture and agriculture in the
United States: the removal from this
country of scores of thousands of for
eigners, now engaged here in in
dustries, who will go home to fight;
the general impairment of prosperity
In every country involved in great
war, so that it becomes a smaller
purchaser than in times of peace.
One of the most damaging effects
of an artificially- stimulated export
demand for foodstuffs and manufac-
consumer Assuming that the vari-
Gus European countries involved in
war may buy, heavily at the outset,
the Immediate result will be an in
crease in prices. This increase will
automatically affect the American
consumer. He will have to pay
higher prices in order to prevent the
shipment abroad of such articles as
he needs. He will have to meet the
war prices of the foreign nations. CO.
incidentally, there will probably ba
an increase In production of manu-
featured goods, with the consequent
employment of more men; but the
economists hold that this can only
be of Q. temporary character. and will
begin to fail as soon as the foreign
nations become pressed for funds, or
as soon as embargos upon commerce
become effective.
The reaction Is the thing most to
be feared. At the present time the
United States government is bending
every effort to increase its foreign
market for manufactures and agri-
.,cultural products. The department
1 of commerce Is preparing to send
<abroad commercial attaches, recently
created by law, to assist in the de-
velopment of a foreign trade. Most
important to such a movement Is
prosperity in Europe, with a con-
tinually increasing demand for Amer
lean goods. While the initial effect
of war may be an increase in exports
along certain lines, the economists
hold that war, in the lond run, or
even in the short, must inevitably
work the damage or destruction of
foreign purchasing power.