Evening times-Republican. [volume] (Marshalltown, Iowa) 1890-1923, 1914-10-31
COMPARISONS MUST De MADE
WITH POLL OF VARIOUS
ELECTIONS.
VOTE TO BE SHORT OF THAT
CAST TWO YEARS AGO
Total This Year Expected to BE $4,000
Under That Of ts12-Hish Tide Of:
Democratic Strength in 1906. With
Bryan as Leader-Little to Estimate
Poll on senatorship.
Special to Times Republican.

well at hand for doing some figuring
on election probabilities. If there is
to be in the days following the cleo
ton q comparison of the vote this year
with that of two years ago, some i'm
portant things will have to be remem-
bered. The vote will be much smaller
all round. That is the universal rule.
Comparison of an offyear election with
one in the presidential year is always
disappointing.
The largest aggregate vote in Iowa
was In 1900, fourteen years ago, when
it tota1ed 100000 Four years later it
was 4S5.O00, then $4,000 and two years
ago $4,000. There are therefore about
a half million actual voters in Iowa,
a goodly number of whom seldom ever
vote.
But in 1906 the total vote fell off, as
compared with the 1904 presidential
year vote $4,000, and in 1910 1t fell off
as compared to the previous presi-
Dental vote $4,000.
Ii may therefore be assumed that the
aggregate vote this year will be short.
as compared with two years, go prob
ably $4,000 making the total about
2,OOO
Democratic High Tide in 1896.
Il IS interesting to consider the
fluctuations Of each party vote. The
high tide In the democratic vote was
in 1896 when Bryan received $4,000
votes. The next time he ran he got in
Iowa 100000 votes, then again 100000
votes. Four years later Wilson got
$4,000
Now the republican curve runs this
way: High point in 1900 when Nc
kinley got 100000 votes or $4,000 more
than four years earlier. Then Roose-
welt also got in 1904 100000 votes and
Taft got 275,000. Then came two years
ago when Roosevelt got $4,000 and
Taft 10000. The aggregate Of the
two is PSI. 900
In this last presidential year Clarke
received 1st 900 votes, Dunn $4,000
votes, and Stevens 1000. with 1900
socialist and 5000 prohibitionists.
There was a difference of about 3d.
900 between the vote for president on
the three tickets and the vote for gov
ernor on the same ticket.
There were 5000 who voted for VIII
son and did not vote for Dunn: there
were $4,000 who voted for Clarke and
failed to vote for Taft: there were co.
900 who voted for Roosevelt and would
not vote for Stevens. Out Of such a
hodgepodge 1t is impossible to make
any estimate as to what will happen
next time: but every one is at liberty
to take pencil and do what figuring
he likes.
While it might be objected to that
the vote for president or for governor
two years ago is not fair statement
of the relative strength Of the parties.
the vote on governor seems to be more
nearly the party force than on presi-
dent. Averaging the vote on the rest
of the ticket-the places below COVER
nor-and these results ore obtained in
round numbers: Republican vote $780,
900. democratic vote 171,0o0. progress
sive party vote 10000, socialist $4,000.
900 ahead of his ticket and Governor
ticket.
Large Vote Required.
Both Cummins and Connolly were
nominated at party primaries. Cum
minis received a much larger percent
age Of the party vote in his party than
Connolly did in his.
AAe HdH WIZ Wills iof SendtoI "
governor will have to get at least 49,
600 votes. The notion that nobody is
going to vote this year is scheduled for
a rude Jolt.
The republican estimates run all the
way from 10000 to $4,000 majority for
Cummins or Clarke or the ticket. The
democrats are Boosting Of a chance to
get $4,000 to 10000 for their men. 1t
is recognized that while Cummins will
not get all the republican vote neither
will Connolly get all the democratic
vote. Clarke will be cut by some re-
publicans but in places Hamilton will
be cut by the democrats and inde-
pendents. The same situation prevails
as to Harding and Meyer, but only
to very slight extent farther down
on the ticket.