The Topeka state journal. [volume] (Topeka, Kansas) 1892-1980, 1914-07-21
OPTIMISM IN THE WEST.

OOmeStlC business conditions arr
decidedly cl.lfused.'' writes Henry
Clews. the New York banker, in his
weekly review Of the conditions that
prevail in the world Of trade and
finance. 1T cannot be said that there
is any decrease of trade at large;
probably not more than S or 10 per
cent below last year. The situation.
however. is decidedly spotty. and some
industries continue to show very
marked shrinkage. notably in the iron
trade. The latter has, however. shown
a modera-e tendency toward recovery.
but orders are still far below the nor
NAL mainly because of the impaired
purchasing ability OF the railroads.
The textile Quito k is fairly satisfac-
tory and a considerably larger BUSH
ness transpired in the New York dry
goods market as a result of the rush
Of buyers to attend the Claflin sale.
One striking feature in the situation
is the contrast .ween the optimism
Of the west and the pessimism Of the
east. On this --e Of the Alleghenies
depression is almost universal for rea-
sons that are now well understood.
''Advices II I'M abroad are not en-
tirely satisfactory. Evidences of over
doing in IL, chief capital market Il
the world, London. are decidedly sug-
gestive. The capital applications at
that point in the first half Of the cur
rent year segregated $750.00O.O0O.
against $6O0,00O.00O in the first half
Of 1913. The largest increase was In
Colonial loans and rails, a goodly por-
ton Of which was absorbed by Cana
da. 1t is worthy OF note that large
share OF the original issues had to be
taken up by underwrite 20 owing to the
failure of public subscriptions. 1T
turned out also that the big Paris loan
recently fioated was not SO largely
oversubscribe.. as at first reported. and
some disappointment followed in con-
sequence. At Vienna and Berlin there
is renewed u easiness because OF the
unsatisfactory balkan outlook.
1.-THE above is rather formidable
array of unfavorable factors. Happily
they have been largely discounted by
the present lower range of values. Let
us now turn to considerations of a
more favorable nature. in order to
counterfeit the abnormal pessimism
which is often beyond justification.
There is one important factor not yet
sufficiently realized in this part Of the
country: and that is the crop outlook.
1t should not be forgotten that this
country will probably produce about
nine or ten billion dollars worth of
new wealth the farms this year.
We are practically sure OF the biggest
wheat crop on record. A large corn
crop is in prospect: and the outlook
is for a good cotton crop. Certainly
there will be no shortage in these
three great CT ops; even II the months
of July and August show deteriora-
ton, which is usual and which should
really be expected. The cattle yield
may be short. but that Is because the
land is being turned to more profitable
uses.
spirit of well-founded hopefulness
among merchants and manufacturers
This will be a powerful rtimulus: for
eastern pessimists in this part of the
country cannot fail to share in the
prosperity which nature Is bestowing
upon the west. Another fact OF de-
cided encouragement is the resigna-
ton of Huerta. This renders still
more remote the possibility OF our
armed Intervention in Mexican affairs.
Those who succeed to the government
Of Mexico are likely to pay more re-
spect to the wishes of the United
States than Huerta the rehabili-
tating Of tina: unfortunate country;
Mexico and serve to promote more har-
monious relations with the United
States. A few weeks ago. Mexico was
a highly disturbing factor in this mar
ket; but that danger has now certain
ly practically disappeared. This
change for the better has not yet been
discounted.
"Still another favorable symptom
which has not yet been sufficiently
recognized is the more friendly atti-
tude Of the administration toward big
business. The coming of a better un-
derstanding between our Industrial
and mercantile leaders and the gov
eminent at Washington is a factor of
decided promise. The administration
policies are almost entirely completed:
and the outlook is that the antitrust
measure, which congress expects to
pass before d-ourning, will be framed
upon more reasonable lines than at
first anticipated. One more element
of encouragement il he money out
look. During the next few months
there will be = lack Of loanable funds
to good borrowers. although a closer
scrutiny of credit may be anticipated
Secretary McAdoo's announced will
ingness to release treasury funds for
the purpose Ct aiding the crop move
ment was both wise and tfme-y. Our
banks are in an unusually satisfactory
condition, and well prepared to 60 into
the new reserve system. 1t will be
nho l,lu lot IN <~~ c,.<.--