The Idaho recorder. [volume] (Salmon City, Idaho) 1886-1927, 1914-09-24
CONDITIONS
IMPROVING

AFTER such an unprecedented
shock as business and the financial
world has undergone, progress in re-
staring normal conditions must be-
measured, not by days, or even
wesks. but by months. A full month
has now passed, and looking back to
the beginning il Is clear to see that
conditions are easier today than they
were then: an appreciable start has
been made. Even in the matter of
Getting our foreign obligations,
some daylight begins to filter in.
The most pressing of these will be
met a once, and with ever-increasing
exports it should be possible to meet
the balance without unoue strain.
IN short, the outlok for the provision
in few months of the greatest pre-
requisite Of internatioal cOmmece. 3
national exchange market, is such
that it becomes opportune now to
Judge calmly of the far reaching ef-
fects on this country of continued
European war.
"Quite evidently, the first effect
will be demand from the countr lie S
at war, far in excess of anything pre-
yiously known, for the elements that
90 to make up the necessaries Of life !;
for food and the raw materials that
will have to be Imported by Europe
for the feeding and clothing of the
nations. Secondly, demand per-
haps of somewhat less, but till very
great, for materials entering into
manfacture-coal, oil, railroad equip
ment steel and the like. Thirdly, we
shall be called upon to make good TO
the new countries the deficiency
caused by the shutting off Of Europ-
can manufacture. The need of carry
ing our goods into every port OF the
word will lead inevitably to the
building up of an American mer-
chant marine.
"In one form or another our In
geeuity will he taxed to supply our
selves with the materials for which,
hitherto, we have been dependent
upon Europe. Even such things as
dyestuffs and chemicals we shall be
forced to learn to manufacture. In
short, it will IL can the springing up
of ii tremendous demand for goods OF
all kinds, except those formerly ex-
ported In large part to Europe, and
which Europe will now do without.
"The effect on labor will be mark
ed. At present this is underg DING
the-frst real liquidation it has hac
to suffer in years, but as the demand
springs up, the supply of idle Labor
will be quickly shifted and absorbed
Moreover, there will be actually few
er laboreres; immigration has already
fallen off sharply, while thousands O
men are returning to their NATIVE
countries. These, as a rule, consti
tute the less desirable, unskilled ele
ment that can best be spared, bu
the final upshot will be more jobs
and less men to fill them-in word
higher prices for labor.
Financially, the same trend is IL
evidence. The acts of the admins
trattion have been in the direction o
imitation and this tendency has, nee
essarily, been heig ghtened by the pres
esnt contingency and the very prope
issue, at such time, of emergenc
currency.
1--WE DO not use the word Imitation
in d,rogatory sense, In the mean
ing of fiat money, hut there is, an
unquestionably will be, far more cur
rency ahoat than would be the cas-
normally on the present gold re
serves. In other words, money ha
been cheapened.
1T must also be remembered tina
during such q period personal ecor
omy, both voluntary and involuntary
becomes most marked, capital az
cumulates, cot during periods
what We call good times, bul duI
ing exactly such a period of readjusl
ment as We are now passing through
with International inancia! rels
tions again normal, as they should
towards the. close of the year, a
signs point to steadily rising prices
TO great awakening of manufsctul
in nearly all lines; to increased raj
road earnings IN short, TO gener
expansion and imitation.
After the clDse of the war, Whe
Europe again supplies her own need
We shall face overproduction and al
other readjustment and commsrci
depression, but that is 4 long vi
ahead and we need not cross tn
bridge as vet.
The point is that Se may coul
Tor at least a year, and perhaps Ion
er, on a period Of almost hectic &C
iYity. Under these conditions the
will be certain amount OF sufierii
by persons receiving fixed income
but companies owning and manufaC
uring the goods in demand will Pl
up earnings rapidlyi dividends
such. stock will increase and {