The Hawaiian gazette., 1914-09-25
mo- LASTING iF s7
GOOD T0gU. SsaF'
Wars Final Results win Not Help
American Farmer, Says
Doctor Carver

ei'0' ~ '"io" 5ohc hkht on inc CUES
tion Of the probable effect the Euro.
pean war win have upon agricultural
products, Secretary Of Agriculture
Houston has made public a paper ptee
pared by Dr. T. n. Carver Of the .Ds
partment Of Agriculture. According 70
the opinion Of the department expert
the United States cannot exhaef ehch
a lasting benefit from the war A al
present anticipated Atefnpof6ry proIlt
will be gained, but this Is NOT likely 10
be permanent profit. n
DIR. Carver said In parts
'As to American agriculture, the
European war win be Of no benefit nm.
less u should make AGRICULTURAL prod.
uets much scarcer than other prodncls
II all the things which the farmers
have to buy rise In price on the aver.
age as much as all the things they have
to sell, there will be no gain to. them
as class.
Consumption win Decrease.
Gas to the consumption Of aRricul.
tural products, there are reasons TO ok.
pect an increase In the countries which
are at war; but IL is easy TO exaegernte
this increase. There are no more con-
sumers In time Of war than In time OF
peace; but in so far as men and borAes
are taken from the farms and Pit into
the army, less Is consumed on the farms
and more Is sent away from the farms.
There is, therefore, an increased trade
! n agricultural products rather than an
Increased consumption. However, these
products are more wastefully consumed
lin time Of war. The increased trade in
Itself, increases the number OF traders
who have to be supported. But, more
i specifically, shoes, clothing and tents
are rapidly worn out In time Of war
Much Of these, with other supplies, are
i destroyed in battle and to avoid cap
ture by enemies. The wastefulness Of
the consumption of military supplies
results, therefore, in somewhat In.
-reased consumption Of agricultural
products.
Distribution Costs Increase.
i Gas to the distribution Of agrienl-
tural products, the cost is certain TO be
Increased by war, and consequently, .
anger proportion of the total value
will be absorbed by various classes or
middlemen or distributors. The rates
If marine insurance, to take q single
Illustration, advance because Of the nm.
i eertainties Of shipping.
Spectators become increasingly ae-
Tive, and they will come in for a share
Of the price Of the products in WHICH
they deal This Is especially true IL
argef quantities are stored In antieipa.
tion Of q rise or in order TO create an
artificial scarcity,
Again, the transportation agencies
will be so occupied with military Affairs
as TO increase the difficulty and delay,
II not the direct cost, Of transportation.
The result Of this increased cost Of dis,
tribptiop will be TO nnllify any advan.
taee which farmers might otherwise
gain from the increased consumption
lduring war times.
t'HOwever, there are number Of
special factors entering into the prob
Elem at this time. The partial or tenn
lporary closing Of certain European
markets to all American goods In ease
Of blockade, the limitations growing
put of the laws relating to contraband
Of war, increase the uncertainty and the
hazard Of production. "a
n If the combined English and French
fleets should bottle up the German and
Austrian fleets the ports of western Eu'
rope at least wonld remain oDen TO neu-
rial trade from the United States.
ttEyen THOUGH German markets should
be closed to American food stuffs (our
trade with Austria is neeligitle), this
will be more than compensated nv the
partial or complete inability Of Russia,
1.-THE world 8 greatest producer of wheat,
TO get to the markets in western Eu-
rope. AS to, such concentrated food
lproduets as hams, bacon and lard. war
creates an abnormal demand for them
| No European Famine.
"The combined empires Of Germany
and, Austria Hungary can feed them
selves for an indefinite period: there
fore we need not expect that they will
be on the verge of a famine when the
war closes. s,,t1,
"Since SO large Q proportion Of the
American cotton crop goes to Europe,
a partial closing Of the European mar.
, ket will tend to depress the price Of
that staple. But we must not exagger'
ate this tendency. English mills can
, run without much curtailment,- IL any,
so far as the supply Of hands is con-
Cerned. Many of them are women, aud,
In case Of necessity, more women can
work. Besides, her total army Of $780,
/, 900 men is not much greater than her
army of unemployed.
The only question is as TO her market
for cotton goods. Germany and Aus
tria are the only markets likely to be
closed. The rest Of the world will re.
main open, and her carrying trade is
not likely to be so seriously impaired
as to prevent her from marketing these
light freights. After the war Is over
those countries which have not been
able TO get cotton will be elamoring
Predicts Sugar Shortage.
"Since the three countries, Germany,
! Austria and Russia, produce more than
/ two.thirds of all the beet sugar and
nearly one-third Of all the sugar, both
cane and beet, in the world, we must
expect scarcity of sugar until the
products of those three countries can
again be given an outlet In. the alb
sence Of bloekades, this sugar can find
an outlet whenever there are neutral
ships to carry il. Therefore, there is
not likely, to be a severe sugar famine
Europe win Recuperate. h
Whether America is to become the
financial center OF the world win de-
lpend upon the power and Willingness OF
European populations to reeuperate, 10
= - sla.. kks.ta