The Washington herald., 1914-12-16
HISTORY BUILDERS.
How an Alleged War Prediction
Originated.
Written EXPRESSLY for The Hcradl
Nv DR. T.. j, EDWARDS.


At the beginning Of the civil war, re-
port was widely circulated that the Sec
retary Of State in LinCOlns Cabinet
William H. Seward. had made light Of
the prospect Of war and had declared
that IL there were any outbreak II would
, not be serious and that in any event the
war would not last sixty days or. at the
most ninety days As the war progressed
il was frequently said that Secretary Sc
ward had woefuIly undCrestimated the
tenacity OF the purpose Of the southern
States and their ability to maintain
war long enough to enable them to estab-
lish their government.
This remark attributed to Seward has
become historic. and there are probably
few persons who were living at the time
OF the civil war who do not recall the
prediction which $, ward was alleged to
have made and tn" critical or fiippant
comment which his alleged assertion
caused as the war progressed from year
TO year. Some years ago, while in a con-
versatiOn with Frederick ". Seward, 1t
occurred to me to ask him II his father
did make that prediction. and. il so,
when and where he mad" II.
Frederick ". Seward. now in serene
old age. still lives, the sole survivor Of
all those who were OF the official family
of President Lincoln. His memory of
men and events OF those days is clear
and his statements are known to be ac-
curate. Mr.. Seward received my question
with an expression which indicated some
amusement. and he explained that by
saving that he presumed he had been
asked a thousand times II his father had
made that prediction and, II so. when
and where he made it, Therefore 1t
amused him slightly 10 hear me. with
,,.h, hn ha1 haI FnnvaFEaflnng In
recent years, also put that inquiry to
him.
There is absolutely no truth in that
report" he declared. My father never
said anything OF the sort. at any time or
any where He was aware that the re-
mark had been attributed to him, but he
never took the pains to deny It. He new
er would deny any accusation unless II
was one Of a personal character. for he
believed that It was impossible for a de-
nIaI to catch up with an inaccurate
statement
There was, however. an incident upon
which this report was based. My father
was on his way to Washington to take
his seat I'm tho Senate at the opening Of
the short session of Congress on the
first Monday of December. 1860. 1t
CHANGED. the niCht OF his arrival at New
York, that the New England Society was
holding ITS annual banquet at one OF the
large hotels NY father was invited to
attend and was asked to say something
to the New Englanders. At that time
there was a good deal of talk about Sc
Cession and some anxiety lest war should
follow an attempt to create a new gov
ernmcnt south of Mason and Dixon's
line Father was persuaded that during
the winter this excitement would he end
ed or lessened. and that satisfactory
measures might be taken to bring about
an amicahIe adjustment Of the difficulty.
there remained from sixty to ninety days
before the new administration began and
that in that time It was possible and
probable that measures would he adopt
ed and agreements reached to avert the
crisis
That was all father said. There was
no war then and no certainty that there
would be war. There were some three
months in which 1t would be possible TO
reach and adopt measures that would be
satisfactory to both sides. Out OF that
simple suggestion arose the report that
my father had predicted at the begin
ming of Linccln's administration that the
war would be over in sixty DAYS. 1t is
useless to attempt to correct that mis-
take. II has become historic and. like
many other predictions that have no
basis, has got into history
(Coryright. 1914 BY E. !. EdEardA All rights re
SeTvedJ
Tomorrow DR.. Edwards will tell How