Evening public ledger. [volume] (Philadelphia [Pa.]) 1914-1942, 1914-12-05

Philadelphia Stock Exchange for restricted
trading is the local evidence, while the
United States in general responds eagerly to
the prophecy of Edward E. Pratt, chief of
the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Com
merce, that Americas foreign trade will in
crease by half a billion dollars in the first
year of the war.
International SioCk-taking
All over the world there is similar revival
OF interest in commerce and a similar stock
taking. Perhaps it is too soon for general
statements, yet there are signs abroad that
great many citizens of the warning nations
have given up the notion that their countries
are going to get any material advantage even
IL they prove victors. They are coming round
to a point of view expressed by English
man four years ago in book, THE Great
Illusion" War doesn't pay.
At the end of July It would have been
considerable task TO push home that thesis;
Norman Angel at any rate, found 1t so. A
week later The doubling world supplied proof
At the very shadow of war; credit collapsed
The stock exchanges of the world shut down
in desperate effort to save some shred of
the commercial fabric. Ocean traffic came to
a standstlll. Industry in Germany. France
Russia and Austria largely suspended as the
men were called to the colors, while England
lost huge foreign trade and curtailed man
ufacture materially. No estimate of the daily
loss is possible. 1t is too staggering. Even
with the partial reopening of bourses and the
resumption of part of the ocean-borne trade
of England and France 1t is still so stagger-
ing that any advantage won by the final vic
tor can never compensate him for the losses
now suffered.
All this was what man named Norman
Angel told the world in a book which in
four years ran into 13 editions and reprints
in England alone and was translated into n
dozen tongues-and vet could not turn the
tide against war. The only significant fact
to comfort Mr.. Angel was that, while many
English manufacturers called for long
war and kept an eye on German competitors
boxed up in their harbors by the British
navy considerable element, represented by
the powerful Manchester Guardian, saw
commercial disaster in the conflict and
sisted bitterly.
Does War Pay?
Norman Angel never denied that
might profit the specialists in government
loans, and he never denied that war might be
useful in eating up overproduction which
the commercial mechanism could not take
care of without panic. There he agreed
with the Socialists, But he went beyond
them in preaching that war doesn't pay. He
tried to show that not even business men
can make money out of conquest.
Loot is admittedly thing of the past
along with tribute We must look to COM
mercal advantage or a heavy indemnity for
modern profit from war. But the conditions
of industry and commerce. the present COM
plex organization of the civilized world said
Norman Angel, render the first unattainable
and the second improbable.
Here are the facts: No modern country is
self f-sufficient. There is hardly an industry
that is not deliberately dependent other
in other countries-an international
division of labor Nations are both sellers
and buyers; the prosperity of the customer
is essential to the man with something to sell.
The national systems of credit, on which in
dustry is conducted, have become just as
deliberately interrelated. New York, London
and Berlin are all in tune.
Wrecking Commerce and Credit
And here are Mr.. AngelIs deductions: A
war between such countries England and
means first of all a grave disturb
ance on the bourses and in industry, which
will continue TO a large extent until peace is
made The end of the war can bring no ad.
vantage to the victor great enough to offset
this. The shattering of the losers credit
means as complete disruption of the inan-
cal system of the conqueror. The destruc-
tion Of the victims commercial wealth can
be accomplished only by the destruction
Of the population which creates it by its
work. Aside from the human impossibility OF
such an action, It would entail also the de-
struetion of a valuable market for the
goods
1t is physically impossible TO capture" the
carrying trade of a country. II Germany
owned" Belgium. Belgian merchants and
ship owners would still compete
with Germany. The same conclusion applies
to colonization Navigation acts" destroy
themselves: colonies must be given such
virtual independence that, as in the case of
the foreigner-the German or the
Swiss, for instance-takes as much profit as
the mother country, In all cases OF annexa-
tion of land, the conqueror annexes with it
the inhabitants who proht by that land, In
only one way does he benefit from even the
most favorable example, an undeveloped.
savage country; in order and security And
the nation that takes up the role of police
man has the disadvantage of paying for
something that win beneht other nations as
much
Germany's Costly Indemnity
As to indemnity. We have the Illuminating
case OF the ffanco-ffusslan war. In TINS
regard 1t was the most successful ever waged.
exacted enormous indemnity.
Yet that indemnity could not pay the ex-
pensea OF preparing for war ana OF guarding
gainst a subsequent war Of retHbutiOn,
while IN its eolleetiHs-see the financial rec
ords Of Berlin ana PaFis-ths victor suffered
more by depreciation of currency ana by the
arlppHng OF the purchasing powers OF a con-
sumer than the victim suffered BY the pay
ment.
when Norman Angel left the purely com
mercial material side Of the argument and
v ent on 10 prove that war did not preserve