The Detroit times., 1914-08-25
LIECE ATTACK
PROPHESlED BY
BELLOC in 1912
Military Expert Wrote Then
That Kaiser Would Stake All
on Immediate Success"
FAILURE TO ACHIEVE
THIS MEANS DEFEAT
Belgium Offers One Vulnerable
Point Through Which to
Strike France

The attempt OF the German army to
cross the frontier at Liege as the irst
step in the Franco-German conflict
and the disastrous result to the In
tvaders was predicted by Hilaire Bel
loc, a military expert, In the May
| (1912) issue Of the London Magazine.
A remarkable analysis OF the con-
ditions that would attend the opening
OF hostilities between the two coun-
tries shows almost prophetic vision
by the writer of the events that have
TRANSFERRED within the past 10 days.
Referring to the support which
England would have given France
had the clash that seemed imminent
in the previous September between
Germany and France actually oc-
CURED, Belloc declared that Great
Britain would have despatched an
army well over 100000 men across
the channel.
Il propose to show" he stated,
that that army would have gone into
action In the neighborhood of the
town OF Belgium, In Liege. In order
to understand that, one must briefly
recapitulate the main elements of the
Franco German frontier. and to show
the nature Of the line which the Ger
man army would have to negotiate II
II hoped for success.
There Ia no necessity for studying
the other side OF the problem or for
describing the line which the French
would have to force before they could
hope for success; and the reason why
there Is no such necessity Is very
simple. The line does not exist.
Germans have deliberately staked
their policy upon the chance or ex-
pectation of very early and immedi-
ate success after the outbreak OF war.
IL they fall In that, they have no de-
cisive line upon which to fall back.
and the failure to achieve immediate
success under such policy is equiva-
lent to defeat"
Explaining the defensive line which
lies between the German army and a
successful campaign against the
French, Belloc notes the chain of for
tifications which France constructed
after the war of 1901, extending
from BelfOrt. at the southern end. to
yerdun, at the northern end Of the
frontier. He explains how the invad-
try to turn that line OF defense on the
north rather than on the south be-
cause Of the nature OF the country In
the latter instance.
ITO debouch from q country where
you are restricted to long, narrow
lines of advance against an active en-
envy prepared for you at the edge Of
the open country he says. means
that that enemy can crush the heads
of your columns as they appear and
before anything like their strength
has had the chance to deploy.
Now, when you turn to the prob
lem of turning the French fortresses
by the north. q very curious position
IL apparent. II Is this: The natural
defensive line which continues the
French liAe Of frontier tortresses La
the Mouse river, whose crossings are
fortified against aggression wherever
not protected automatically by diff
cult country
But the Meuse river Is no longer
under French control in this northern
section. II Is under Belgian control.
In other words, the French strategic
frontier does not correspond to their
political frontier.
This would not matter II treaties
were held sacred by the government
of Berlin. In that case the line would
end at Verdun and IL Verdun was
too strong. so much the worse for
the Prussians. That II would be an
abominable wrong and reasonable act
to attack Belgians. with whom they
had no quarrel. and to violate their
neutrality need not concern US here.
where We are only concerned with the
military side Of the problem.
Great Britain is solemnly pledged
to defend Belgium from treachery
Of this kind In fact, II Is rightly
taken for granted that In case of war
Germany would disregard her trea-
ties and her pledged word and In
wade Belgium In order to get around
the French line OF obstacles. So the
part of Belgium through which the
German armies would have to come
has for many years been fortified in
precisely the same way as the French
frontier has been. II Ia here that the
role OF Liege comes In.
THE German attack would have to
be made along the line Of the lower
Mouse river. You cannot get into Bel.
GUM without crossing that river. On
this river there stand two frst-class
fortresses, which so far az guns and