The Birmingham age-herald., 1914-05-12
BETTER TIMES ARE ALREADY IN SIGHT SAY THE OBSERVERS Best Judges of Conditions Believe Ebb Tide in Busi- ness Has Been Reached SOME REASONS FOR THE BETTER FEELING Careful Analysis Shows United States Is Beginning to Adjust Business
 Conditions to the New
 Tariff Law
ny HOLLAND.

New York. May 11.-(Special)- )-Some of the best judges of business conditions have within a few days confessed to a ehange of view, or, if not exactly that 1 nevertheless to suspicion that the country has practically reached the ebb of depressing business and that the be- ginning of the flood seems to be oserv- | able
 There certainly does prevail a somewhat
 better feeling than was that which was | characteristic of business sentiment throughout the winter and early spring, II exception be made of business asso- clated with the marketing of women's dress goods
 This new view, if it can properly be so
 naracterlzed. is all the more remarka ble since word comes from the continent of europe that business conditions there are not especially good and that there are no evidences that they will show i'm provement this summer. It may be that as has been the case two or three times in the past, the restoration of good times the world over will first be demonstrated oy conditions in the United States.
 Several reasons are given for this slightly encouraging outlook. First of all, there is the report of our interna- tional trade in the first nine months of the present fiscal year This trade aggre- gates about S3, ,2J0, 000.000 and has estab- lished visible or apparent trade balance in favor of the United States of little under $500 o0o, 000-to be exact, $4S5, ,O00 000 There seems to be no reaso nwhy the record of the total international trade for the present fiscal year may not show that the visible or apparent trade balance in favor of this country is between $5s0, ,000,- GOO and $6tsl, 100000
 A careful analysis of the statistics pre- pared officially at Washington justifes the suspicion that the United States is beginning to adjust her business condi- tions to the new tariff law We still maintain an excess of exports over im- ports and there appears to be no reason why this commerce will not be main- tained. It is in part due. no doubt, to the continued heavy expectations of man. ufactured commodities. As long ago as the time when the Illinois Steel and Iron company and the Federal Steel cdmpany Were found face to face with embarrass- ing conditions, the men who took hold of these properties with intent to quicken them were persuaded that the best policy to adopt would be one involving the man. uacture of many articles which would be available for exportation. That policy was success adopted and it was one of the chief features of the early organiza- tion of the United States Steel corpora tion.
 The Business Philosophy
 The business philosophy which law be- hind this policy is now familiar one, but 10 or 15 years ago it was not well un- derstood or generally adopted. It is based upon the belief that an industry such as the old Federal Steel or the pres ent United States Steel corporation will bewisely directed if the policy include the manufacture of commodities avail able for foreign markets. The soundness of this policy has been demonstrated by figures that show a wonderful increase in the exportation of American manufac- tured products especially those which | represent the steel and iron industry and l all this in a time of domestic business depression.
 An important feature of this policy that has been characteristic of the United States Steel corporation Is that no atten- ton Is paid to competitors or to competi- | tion. That policy is true of two or three | other very great American corporations, | notably the one of which A. w. Green is president The only competition which | is maintained is that which is based upon the high quality of the product and uni- formity of prices.
 Of course competition in the reasonable and best sense of the term does prevail in the foreign markets. But it is not the Kind of competition which depends upon cutting of prices, secret bonuses or rebates, but upon the high quality of the commodities and the facilities with which they are delivered with least delay to purchasers.
 Another Favorable Condition
 The tentative announcement of the se- lections which President Wilson first made of the membership of the federal reserve force also stimulated good feel ing. It has been the common obser- vation here and in other financial cen ters that the President has revealed his intention to create federal board which will fairly represent intelligent. conser- vative and yet strong banking influences as these prevail throughout the United States. And although Richard Olney of Boston has found in imperative that he remain loyal to very important obliga- tions which rest upon him as a member of this board, even as it's chairman, nev- ertheless the first selection of him by President Wilson and the naming with 1 him of men of very high authority both as practical and as theoretical bankers have satisfied bankers throughout the country that the federal reserve board will be one in which they may nave com- plete confidence. That will end the hesi- tation or doubt which has. at least indi- | rectly. affected business. Still another highly encouraging incident is to be found in the first estimate of what the | harvest of the summer and early fall may