The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-08-02
SIX MONTHS TO YEAR
OF WAR is PREDICTED
Military Experts Look for short
Conflict, but Differ
on "ShOrt."
MANY FACTORS INVOLVED
1t Is Believed That Great Ar
.. tillcry Duels Will be
the Feature.

WAsufNGToN. Aug. 1.-The war in Eu-
rope Will be short one. In the opinion
OF army and navy officers in Europe.
There is. however considerable differ
ence ~ opinion as to how long the short
war viii be. Estimates range from one
month to year. but the consensus ls
that II will probably extend from six
months TO year.
The reasons given for believing tina:
the war will be Of comparatively brief
duration arc the concentration OF the
opposing forces into immense bodies OF
men, the results OF whose operations
against one another can hardly fail to
be decisive; the tremendous increase OF
the rapidly OF communication and trans
portation. and the enormous cost OF
modern warfare.
On the other hand. the tremendous area
OF the probable field Of hostilties is
PORTED to as factor which may Offset
some OF the influences which would ordi-
narly shorten the struggle
Instead OF one or two points Of con-
tao. for the opposing forces II is expected
that there Will be dozen widely sep
arRted struggles. each one on a scale sur
passing that of the important conflicts OF
modern times.
Any one Of the belligerents may win
NJ one point Of the conflict and lose at
another, thus dividing the result and Civ
ing deciding advantage to neither side
Military men here predict that II may
take longer time than IL now anti
cpated to achieve positive results out OF
40 many separate struggles rs are ex-
pected TO occur II the war becomes gem
eral
Another factor which makes the ma
jority OF observers here scout the sugges-
/ tiOn that che ha N "a mo N
or two Is that all the Powers likely TO he
engaged have In reserve millions Of
trained men whom they can call into the
field, fully equipped and ready for battle
| on short notice, In addition to the hun
dreds OF thousands already called into
the service.
II is not considered likely that any Of
the beligerents II hard pressed will he
willing 10 give UP the struggle unul 1t has
awaited itself OF this reserve resource. To
bring these men into the field supplement-
ing the vast armies already on the move
would require a considerable time.
II is by balancing these opposing con-
slderatlons that the majority Of military
men here In discussing the situation IA
the probable duration OF the war AT from
six months to n year
On the other hand the European Power,
have developed marvellous machinery fol-
calling into service, assembling and trans
porting large bodies Of troops. The net
work Of railways alone enables armies tC
move with a rapidly many times greater
than that of Napoleon's forces a hun.
dred years agu.
In addition. the rapdity with which
information can now be disseminate
enables a modern army not only to exc
cute Ia own movements with great rapid
ty but to adjust Itself more quickly I,
the moves of the enemy.
1t Is believed the war will be charac
! terized by great artillery duels
Though the Powers have war fund
stored up. the cost OF the war will In
very brief time outrun even the larges
of these war chests. The cost OF tn
war is figured variously. one estimate
puts II at $1,000 n man per year. and |
now seems certain that millions OF mel
will be placed in the field.
Another factor which Ia counted upo
to shorten the war IL the food situation
Germany particularly will be har
pressed for food II the war Is OF Ion
duration.
Hemmed in by her enemies on all sidei
, and with the naval supremacy concede
to tho British fleet, II is not seen her
, how Germany can long hold out IL the wa
IL not decided uromptly.
These considerations alone are believe
| sufficient 70 make Germany exert he
! vesy utmost efforts from the start
. make each blow she str kes a telling on,
a and force the conflict as rapidly ~ pos
siblA