The Hawaiian gazette., 1914-01-16
By Ernest @. walker.


political for ovcrturning the control of
the United States senate arc under dis
eussion in opposition camps. The cam
paign of 1914 Is already much in the
thoughts Of politicians The United
States senate is one Of the big prizes
TO be fought for within a few months.
For be il remembered that one-third OF
the senate of ninety-eight members is
to be elected by popular vote, and the
Democratic margin is now FIVE, but
would be eight II Alabama would quit
fooling and Oh the vacancy existing
there for months, and il Senator-eleet
Blair Lee OF Maryland gets his seat
IN place Of the Republican senator
from there who was appointed by Re.
publican Governor Goldsborough.
The general senate contest will come
down to a Republican question Of cap
turing FIVE senate seats next November.
Can they do its The Republicans have
their pencils to paper and are saying,
Eyes we cant II is very early yet
to reach conclusions. There are thirty
two places, which means senatorial
ciimpaign in thirty-two States, to be
voted for. Democrats stand to lose
two or three seats, as, possibly, In the
case of George Il. Chamberlain Of Ore
gon and Francis G. Newlands of Ne
.yada. They might lose Indiana, whore
Benjamin r. Shively now serves, for
Indiana has been hit by the hard times
and q recession of political sentiment
is said to be under way there
Democratic States.
II is interesting to note what States
arc to elect SUCCESSORS to Democratic
senators, because that is of importance
in determining what IS likely to happen.
There are only fifteen of the thirty.tYo
(and, as it happens, most Of these are
Southern Statesl surely Democratic.
The fifteen. States are Alabama, Ari-
IONA, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida In
diana, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri,
Nevada North Carolina, Oklahoma,
Oregon, South Carolina and Georgia.
As. the record Of elections FOR recent
years runs, Colorado, Indiana, Nevada
and Oregon are the only dOuhttul
States in this list. Missouri and Mary
land are f2rely fighting ground on such
an issue rs United States senator, and
the Republican fight TO cOntrol, tbe.se
ate during the last half Of the Wilson
administration may center in those
States. If Democrats should lose the
four doubtful States and no more, the
vote in the senate would be tie and
IVice-President Marshall would find him
self with a new oecupation-the right
to votei on senate questions.
4 y Republican Fights.
On the other hand, Republicans will
have something to do 70 hold all the
votes they have in seventeen other
States, now represented by senators of
their party Kentucky, normally
Democratic State, will elect n suece sor
to William o. Bradley, Republican.
The States eleeting successors to Re-
publican senators arc California, Con-
hectient, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas,
| konturky, New Hampshire, New York,
Ncrth Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
South DaiSota, Utah, Vermont, Wash.
ngton aud Wisconsin. Mill, ~. . .
Very clearly tho senate campaign will
DO y desperate one from the Republican
standpoint. II will be confined to six
or seven States. What use, for OK.
ample, to start a campaign In Southern
States where Democrats have every.
thing their own way Alabama, as an
instance, is now in the throes of a
struggle. between Representatives Hob
son ands Underwood, both of whom are
! trying to get ito the senate For the
| moment at least, it is the most inter.
esting senatorial campaign in the
whole country But the Alabama vOt-
ers will decide some time in April
whether they prefer Hobson or Under.
wood, wheTehion all the Democrats in
! the State next November will turn
around and support tile winner to vic
tory. rt
Control Of House.
The other congressional contest Of
] 1914 will be for control of the house.
That contest affects every one of The
forty eight States. 1t goes without say
! ing at the very start that Republicans
will reeapture a lot of lost territory
AT present there are 200 Democratic
members Of the house aud l44 opposi-
tion members, taking notice Of one
Democratic vacancy in Iowa, made by
a recent death. This opposition com.
prises 1874 regular Republicans, six Pro.
4 gressive Republicans, thirteen Progress
sives and one Independent. In other
words the Democrats have more than
a two to one majority But it is reeog-
nized that there are many Democrats in
the present house who can not hope for
a reelection. Their places will be taken
by Republicans to u certainty,
4 Not an Uphill Fight,
II would seem an uphill fight for the
minority party but in reality probably
win not be- BY thatis not meant that
Republicans can easily reeapture the
house, although II is the history Of ma
iOTities there that an overwhelming ma
jofity one way is often followed by an
overwhelming majority the, other way.
That was what happened with the house
ip-tka- Fifty.third Congress, oyerwhelm-
! ingly Democratic, aud the Fifty-fourth
Congress, overwhelmingly Republican.
There win be 9 swing Of forty or Atty