The labor world. [volume] (Duluth, Minn.) 1896-current, 1914-12-12
a BANKERS BUSINESS FORECAST

The second half Of the year 1914
began with two prime disturbing fact
ors-one, the scarcity OF money, and
the other, q decline In the employ
ment Of labor; both of these condi-
tons we're accentuated four weeks
later by the beginning OF hostilities
in Europe. For perhaps 60 days, the
decline was rapid and general. after.
world. -.
Probably 40 per cent Of the labor
usually employed in the metal trades,
the textile trades and. heavy manu-
featuring generally was out of employ
ment at the beginning of this closing
quarter Of the year. Not since 1893
has the number Of unemployed been
30 large In this country as on October
first. Since that date, Increased
orders for home consumption, the
opening, conversion or equipment of
factories for the making of goods
previously bought in Europe and the
receipt Of heavy orders for supplies
from belligerent nations, have each
served to reduce the number of I'M
employed. Within a fortnight, enough
working forces to re-employ rs per
cent Of the idle and it, is safe to
assume that not more than 25 per
cent Of the labor usually employed in
the heavy manufacturing lines is idle
at this writing with good prospects of
the number being decreased daily.
Among those concerns which have
been favored with heavy orders from
the nations at war, many are operat-
Ing at full capacity and some working
twenty-four hours day for the first
time In their histories.
Commercially, we have not yet felt
to any extent the great change in
sentiment which has come about dur
ing month but the change has been
distinctly felt in financial circles. The
most potent factor in bringing the
Improvement was the opening of the
Federal Reserve banks and the release
Tor use in financial operations of
hundreds of millions of dollars in re-
serve, the amount released in the New
York banks alone reaching more than
lob millions. While it will take q
portion OF these reserves to retire the
Clearing House Certificates which
have been used between banks. the
effect of the use of the, rediscount
privilege by the banks must soon be
felt throughout the business world:
The next move in the restoration
OF confidence and the oiling of the
wheels of business will be the opening
OF the stock exchanges and the cotton
exchanges. The principal cotton and
stock exchanges will be open before
we can place this report In your
hands, with the possible exception Of
the New York stock exchange and it
Is even probable that this exchange
Will open for restricted trading soon,
limiting itself to certain bonds and
guaranteed stocks some Of these be-
ing called into action daily. This
will bring about daily quotations on
standard securities which will mean
refnvestment by the people-at-large
Of some hundreds of millions of dol
lars which have been held awaiting a
proper and SAFE OPT ort1nity 81. s for .inz
vestment.$ An evidence Of the better
sentiment among cotton traders was
the sale a. few days ago Of a cotton
exshanEe membership at an increase
Of s5 per cent over the last previous
SALE.
Although Of less Importance than
the home trade situation in reality,
foreign trade conditions are being
carefully followed by students of
business. Our October imports total
ed 140 million dollars compared with
1873 millions last year, an evidence
that Europe, in spite of her condition.