The Birmingham age-herald., 1914-05-19
GREAT WHEAT CROP WILL BE STIMULUS ID GENERAL TRADE The United States Consumes About Seven Bushels Per
 Capita Annually MUST SHOW GAINS
 OR BECOME BUYER Production Per Acre Here Is Only Fourteen Bushels, While in Eng
 land It Averages Thirty
 Bushels
By HOLLAND

By HOLLAND
 New York, May 1S.-(Special )-As re- gently as 1907 the prediction was made by several men of high expert authority that wheat harvest in the United States 50,000.00O more, could not reasonably he expected unless there were a great ex- pansion of the wheat areas or highly scientific methods of wheat cultivation.
 MT. James J. Hill seemed to be of that opinion, and at that time he spoke words of warning, frankly saying that unless farming in the United States, and especially wheat farming, were improved through the adoption of scientific meth- ods, the time was near at hand when the United States would not be able to pro- vide flour enough to feed its population. He estimated an annual consumption per capita of about seven bushels MT. Hilrs estimate justified him in predicting pop- ulation by the year 1850 of approximately 100000 in the United States. Therefore in his view the most important problem of the present time is the one whose an- swer will show the way by which this country can raise food products enough to feed this population.
 Information which within a day or two has reached the Wall street district tends to confirm the belief that in the United States there is to be harvested of winter wehat more bushels than the com bined average harvest of winter and spring wheat for the past five or six years. Some weeks must pass before there can be a fairly reasonable estimate of the spring wheat harvest. but the in- formation no wat hand justifies the hope that unless there be serious climatic dis turbances this harvest will be a very large one.
 Therefore it is within the range of pos abilities, even probabilities, that there will be garnered this year between 900 000,000 and 1,000, 100000 bushels of wheat. There does not appear to have been any attempt upon a large, nationwide scale to practice highly scientific wheat culti- vation There has been steady improve ment in the cultivation of wheat. but not enough fully to explain the prospect of a wheat harvest that may be approximate ly 1,0oO.000,0o0, and is likely to be s0o.00O- : 600 bushels.
 Expert Opinion
 The experts, MT. Hill among them, have been accustomed to say that in England wheat is cultivated so as to yield about 30 bushels an acre, although the soil of England has been under cultivation a thousand years or more. There seems to be no reason why wheat may not be so cultivated in the United States as to yield approximately as large an amount This must be done soooner or later if the United States is to provide wheat enough to meet the demands of It's own popula- ton. should that population increase as rapidly as MT. Hill estimates it will
 Fourteen bushels an acre have been the average wheat production in the United States-in recent years. MT. Hill believes that the production should be at least loo per cent greater. It must be greater If we are to rely upon our own soil for wheat which is the grain food of highly civilized people.
 Was It Squirt?
 No one can tell at this time whether the promise of an enormous yield of wheat is due to an ephemeral spurt or whether it does not point to large in- crease in the wheat harvests hereafter. Of course, climatic conditions have been favorable, although this Is not believed wholly oexplain the promise of 8 great increase. If the present promise Is to be justified by the event, then 1t Is possible that some of the American farmers who emigrated to British Columbia for the purpose or raislnB wheat upon idnu tna' cost little may be tempted to return to the United States. This promised har- vest. should the promise be realized, will be of very beneficial influence in stimu- lating business and in it's effect upon our money markets. It should provide q greater surplus for exportation than any that we have had in recent years. II should serve considerably to increase our visible trade balance.
 A Curious COincident
 About the time when the experts thought they were Justified in saying thai unless methods of wheat cultivation were improved the United States could not ex- pect to harvest in any one year much more than 70O,000,00o bushels of wheat there were also predictions which related to our exportation of manufactured com modities. Sometimes the statement was