Valdez daily prospector., 1914-06-26
FRIDAY, JUNE 26, 1914.
GOOD IMPORTS: GOLD EXPORTS.

Something too much is made of the influence of the new tariff upon cur- rent events. Among it's alleged mis- deeds is responsibility for the ex- ports of gold. It is impossible to de- ny that imports have swollen, that being the precise thing intended to be allowed by the reduction of the GUS toms duties. But that is far from being the only or chief factor in the balance of trade situation. Imports have increased less than exports have shrunk, and less than the decrease in exports due to the agricultural shortage alone. If the year had been one of large agricultural exports, it may be that there would have been neither an excess of imports nor ex- ports of gold. In fact, that is the promise of the moment for this time next year, although then the same tariff will be in effect. It is charac- teristic of trade largely agricultural that it f1uctuates more according to the weather than according to trade That is the chief reason why our trade shows greater fluctuations than that of nations whose trade depends more on the factory and less upon the soil.
 There is another specific influence which must receive its due share, and which is hardly noticed. The treas urys deficit is injecting money in to the circulation where there is no use for it. The injection is in gold largely, and for gold our expiring banking system has little use, far less than in countries which know how to make it the basis of credit Ma turally such countries have more use for gold than ourselves, and vel come it when our banks give it the cold shoulder. The circulation of the country is now $3,476, 100000 against $3,354 100000 May 1 last year. The gold incirculation now is $1,732, ,000,- 900 against $1,6O1, 100000 in 1913. Why should we not export gold, es- pecially when there is a balance of gold imports over gold exports of $13,616,143 for the ten elapsed months of the fiscal year? The excess of imports of goods and of exports of gold for April is rather a chance oc- currence than portent It relation to the new tariff is less interesting pr important than it's relation to the new and old banking systems. As we are, the exports of gold relate to trade rather than to banking, and our trade is much matter of the weather. As we hope to be the movements of gold will be related more closely to banking and trade than to agriculture, and will have larger interest for students than for spectators in either crops or stocks.
 When honorable senators draw in ferences regarding tariff effects from the experiences of a single month, and with only partial survey of the situation, it is time to counsel caution and common sense. Tariffs ought not to be altered because sin gle crops are good or bad, because trade demands stability. Gold ex- ports ought not to cause fright when they are abnormally fostered by con- ditions approaching and unregretted end. We have had high prosperity with worse tariffs, and we soon shall have a banking system which will lessen the tendency to export gold, and which will minimize the effects of such exports when they do oc- cur, as sometimes it is well that they should occur. It Is the politicians who are in hysteria over the pres ent conditions, not the economists or the bankers.-Ex.