The Bourbon news. [volume] (Paris, Ky.) 1895-19??, 1914-01-27
HOW The WEATHER BUREAU
FORECASTS STORMS AND FLOODS

WASHINGTON, d. c., Jan. "a.
Many people have an idea that there
is something mysterious and occult
about the work of the Weather BIZ
reau iii forecasting the coming Of
storms, frosts and floods. Not few
think that the observers must neces-
sarily get their. data by reading the
planets. the stars and the moon. AS
a matter of fact the forecaster of the
Bureau foretells the coming of distur
Dances in business-like way, very
similar to that in which man who
has ordered shipment of goo Is
would estimate the date of it's arrival
Suppose business man had order
ed a carload of pineapples from the
Hawaiian Islands He would know
the average time it would take the
steamer to make the trip to the Pa
cific port, the average time for un-
loading and loading into refrigerato TOR
cars, and the average number of days
to be allowed these cars for their trip
across the continent to New YORK
His estimate, however, would be sub
ject to error because the steamship
might be delayed by fog, or the cars
might meet with an accident.
Storms. like pineapples, as rule
do not originate In the United States.
They come to us. some from the Phil
ippines, Japan, Siberia, Alaska, Can
ada or the Gulf of Mexico. The
Weather Bureau gets cable, telegraph
ic or wireless notices of a foreign
storm. Station after station, or yes
sci after vessel reports the storms
arrival in its neighborhood, s, that
the general direction and rate of prog
ress can be determined very ne -
In fact, the arrival OF some storms can
be forecasted ten days in advance.
The forecasters watch for the re-
gion of low barometer which is the
storm center arouni which the winds
blow This whirl or eddy moves bod
lily forward with the general eastward
drift of about $50 miles a day in our
ATTITUDES. AS the lines of equal press
ure (isobars) around the low center
crowd closer together, the winds at
tending the storm increases in force
The forecaster determines the direc-
ton of movement Of the storm and its
velocity.
When weather disturbances are re-
ported, the forecasters know from eX-
perience about how long it takes them
to reach the Pacific coast, and then
how long after they will reach the
Atlantic coast. For example, if
storm coming from Siberia drifts
eastward around the North Pole and
reapears in Alaska, 1t should appear
in Washington and Oregon in about
two DAYS; should get to the Great
Lakes in six days and to the Atlantic
coast in seven or eight days.
Unexpected conditions may delay
storms or divert them from the
straight track just as refrigerator
car NAV be thrown off it's schedule
'or be shipped by accident on a wrong
road Some of these storms deplete
themselves by running into regions Of
high barometer which are of greater
magnitude and extent than the storm
itself. Some of them, however, travel
completely around the world.
To keep tab on cold waves thai
come into the United States from
Canada and Alaska. the Weather Bu-
reau studies the Canadian Weather
! reports. England sends reports
from Iceland the British Islands an. :
Continental Europe, and daily reports
come from st. Petersburg on the con
ditions in Russia and Siberia.
The same business-like system us
ed in tracing the track of storm is
applied il determining the arrival o.
| frosts.
|, Flood forecasts are made in much
! the same way. Information as to
| the amount of rainfall at the head
waters CT streams that cause fioods
are covered by Geographic repor'
| sen by local observers. AS this rain
reaches the main channel, the heigh'
of the water in the channel is deter
mined by successive guaging station
! Past records establish how much a
height, say of 20 feet, at Dubuque
Iowa. will produce at Davenport, an
other station 80 miles down the Mis-
sissippi. This plan is followed all the
! river, and at each point full allowance
| is made for the effects of water from
tributaries, and from additional and
local rail- fall. AS a result of these
observations In the recent flood, the
people of Cairo had warning q week
| or ten days in advance The Pitts
burg district can be given. only II to
| "a hours notice, because u flood is
upon them within "a hours after q
! heavy rain storm