The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-01-18

deposits are now beginning TO show an
Increase and this reflects a greater
public confidence in the future.
Stock prices In Italy are at a low
level, lower than at any time since 1909.
The average price of ten representative
stocks Is 1888 per cent. compared with
ia per cent. in November. 1907. and
$50 per cent. in September. 1905. italian
stocks might well be studied, as this
class Of securities may begin to move
upward after the worldwide monetary
stringency has improved sufficiently.
Conclusion.
A year ago this week / wrote from
Europe that business was booming and
that money rates would continue high
throughout 1918. but that q decline In
business could be expected at any time
and in some countries a relapse was in
evitabie The result has been exactly
as was anticipated a year ago: good
business has declined and money rates
have been high.
Concerning the future an entirely diff
ferent report Is now In order. Europe
is now entering n depression. and in
stead OF business booming 1t Is quieting
down very rapidly. Now what does this
mean to the American business man?
1t means that as business quiets down
money rates throughout the world will
lessen likewise: consequently 1914 will.
in my opinion. see lower money rates
than have been witnessed for some time.
OF course so long as this competition
in automobiles and ornaments contin-
Ties money will not he cheap: but, In
my opinion, the demand for both pleas
ure cars and battleships will some day
1 fall off. This especially applies to bat
tleships. ornaments and other expendi-
ture in preparation for war.
Although expect no sudden change.
yet from private sources l know that
certain negotiations are now in progress
which are bound to result in either a
naval holiday" or In the organization of
a permanent International court at The
Hague. l cannot give the particulars
I at this time. but | can say that the
forces at work are along an entirely diff
ferent line from anything which has
heretofore been published.
This plan permits competition among
nations to continue and the power OF
each nation to continue to be proper
tionate To its deserts. increasing anC
decreasing In accordance with the fun.
damental laws Of reward and punish.
ment. on the other hand. this plan vii
automatically cause n reduction of ar
mament expenditures without any In
ternational agreements. As wei
known man. high in the French Gov
erument. expressed II: There will al
ways be wars between nations. but tn,
wars of the future will be with stats
tics instead of with hattleships."
| When such time comes, In ten oil
twenty or even more years, this vii
| have a tremendous effect on decreas
! ing the rates for money. Thus in add
ton to n temporary ease in none,
which will come in the immediate fu
! ture, I expect To see some time withii
IA decade "A period of exceedingly low
money rates which will be accompanie,
10y very high bond prices.
l. therefore am advising my friend
not only to purchase bonds hut 4
purchase long time bonds. In fact.
believe that there IL a great opportunit,
to-day in the bond market not only Il
there a small profit in sight owing Z
the immediate slowing down Of business
! throughout the world, but there Is
tremendous later profit possible through
the readjustment Of the armament ques
ton. This IL sure To come within TIL
the next twenty years and In thi
thought Is the lesson to he learne,
from our study OF world conditions to
day.