The Bridgeport evening farmer., 1914-08-17
BABSON PREDICTED
 PRESENT WAR
 NEARLY TWO YEARS AGO


 
 One of the most remarkable predic- hons ever made was that of Roger w. Babson, the American newspaper and magazine correspondent and fla nous interviewer and StatiStician,s in a, newspaper article published in the New York Times and other papers early in 1913. Writing from Naples under date Of Dec. 16. 1912. just vtwen- ty months ago, MT. Rabson predicted the terrible war which is now devas- tating Europe. Watch Austria-Hun- gary-F'rancis Joseph the Key to the Present Situation in Europe, and on Him Depends Largely Whether There Will be a General War or Not was the heading over this article.
 After referring to the people of Aus triG- G-Huugary and the Balkans as the remnants of that great mass of hu- manity which has been f1ocking the past 2,000 years from Asia to Eur ope' remnants which failed to pass through the meshes of progress and Hungarian sieve,'' he declared that these people need. and will some day have, another grinding.
 s'I believe continued MT. Babson, tsthat the mill for this grinding will be located in Austria-Hungary. and that all the great powers of Europe will have hand in the grinding, with a result-who can tell?
 teHere are contained all the neces- sary requisites for starting a great European co1lhagration," continued the keen American observer, although he was inclined to the belief that the death of Emperor Francis Joseph would be the signal for the great bon fire.
 That the Magyars of Hungary were utterly divorced from the empire in spirit, and that they would revolt and fy17 kR-1 first opportunity. was the opinion ex- pressed by MT. BS Sbson. sHFhe Hungar- =ians,' he wrote, opposed this annex atioh"-of Bosnia and Herzegovina- N"and would gladly give these prov inces up at any time.
 American business men and invest ors.s' warned Mr. Babson, should carefully watch Austria Hungary. Never pass over any news from these countries without reading. A most intimate relation exists today between Vienna, the capital of Austria, Buda- street. The spark which will touch off the next European condagration will be found in Austria or Budapest. Watch these two cities.''
 When will it come?'' tI cannot an- swer this question definitely excepting to say it is coming nearer every day.
 As to the attitude of Italy. MT. Bab- son predicted that stin the final conflict I think Italy will try to remain neu-' tral.'' He wrote:
 ssTheir ('the Italians9 desire for the Dalnatian coast, on the opposite side of the Adriatic sea, from Italy, may prevent the Italians from looking at this question in an unprejudiced spirit. This coast, where one still finds prevalent the Italian language, architecture and commerce, originally belonged to Italy. It now belongs to Austria, and is now held firmly by Austria, much to the vexation of Italy. Moreover, as that part of Austria nearest to Italy is German, as Ger many is today giving Austria strong monal support in it's aggressive poli- cies, the Italians have no great love for Germany. Thus, I find a certain fear of Germany among the Italians. such as I find among the French, Eng fish and Russians, all of whom feel that Germany is back of Austria ins her present moves.
 "For this reason. [ should not be surprised to see the Triple Alliance break up and Germany and Austria united against the field. notwithstand% ing the recently announced renewal thereof
 When I ask statesman of one of the above four mentioned nations (Italy, France, Russia and Great Brit ain) his opinion of whether or not there will be another European war, he replies, Ask Germany 9
 In writing of the late Archduke Francis Ferdinand, Mir Babson said that mo persons with whom I talk ov- CT here expect to see him Emperor of the great territory now ruled by Fran cis Joseph
 There were certain reasons, which MT. Babson did not explain, why so many people of Europe believed that Francis Ferdinand would never rule. He was the heir to the throne, and the emperor was very,very old. Some believed that the archduke would never rule, because the enperor's death would mean the breaking up of the empire. That, by implication, was MT. Babson's view. But there were a surprising number of people in and out of Austria who were firmly con- vinced, years ago, that Francis Ferdi- hand was a doomed man, although an unusually robust and healthy one. Nor did they expect a Serb to be tho means of his passing.