The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-07-13
FINANCIAL NEWS
AND COMMENT
Brilliant Crop Prospects Stir
Confidence in Business
World.
SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT
Dry Goods Men Look for Big
Fall Trade - Railroad
Showing Better.
SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT

this season and the economic Importance
OF such harvests even II only approx
mately realized. The Governments July
earlier estimates had been diminished In
comparatively Insignificant degree.
The wheat crop. which. by the way. is
now substantially made. is estimated at
the remarkable total OF 100000, 900
bushels, or a mere matter OF 100000
bushels, or FL per cent. greater than the
largest wheat crop ever harvested In tho
country. The statement also carried the
first official figures on corn. The con-
dtion OF this most important staple was
placed 1 per cent higher than tho ten
year average and yield Is promised of
2,s6S, 100000 bushels, or the fourth
largest on record. The estimate for oats
Is 1901. 600, 900 bushels Without going
further into details as regards the minor
grains Il is sufficient to point out that
the composite condition OF all crops In
tho country on July was about IA per
cent above the ten year average and
81 per cent. better than tho outturn OF
all crops last year Tho period between
now and harvest time is . critical one
and there In still possibility OF material
damage but the season u we'll advanced
and the progress thus far has encour-
aged hopes of improvement rather than
deterioration.
Tho influence Of such AGRICULTURAL
wealth as is now promised upon the ma
terlal prosperity of the country will be-
OF course. incalculable Beside this fac
tor political and other questions with
which Wall Street has lately been exer-
clsing Its mind become OF relatively small
Importance or at least II may be said
that the crop prospect affords splendid
buwark against any adverse contingency
which may be imagined. II Ia worth
while 20 point out that the agricultural
results in other countries OF tho world
have been only moderate this season and
that the likelihood OF our having an ex-
port surplus OF some ESQ. 900. 900 bushels
of wheat is a factor OF tremendous Inn
port to the foreign trade situation. As
matter OF fact the sterling exchange
market Is already discounting q move
ment OF this kind.
While there is perhaps small tangible
proof thereof, II is undoubted that the
| business world is beginning TO discount
| the benefits of abundant harvests I'm
! mistakable signs OF life appear in sew
eral directions. Reports from the steel
trade tell of slightly more optimistic
! feeling In that quarter. In the dry
| goods trade there is obvious n growing
feeling that the latter half of the year
is to witness a large volume of busi-
ness. In more general way railroad
returns are making better showing
| than they were a few weeks ago. and
bank clearings and slight hardening OF
money rates display n healthy quicken
! ing OF the business pulse
The manner In which tho security
markets continue to present a firm front
| to various external and internal dis
turbances must be attributed in a large
degree TO the general recognition that the
economic value of big crops is something
which goes far toward outweightng polit-
| ical uncertainties and other trying cir
cumstances which go with the present
business and financial depression. The
| Improvement in the demand for high
grade bonds which are being consumed
| steadily. is also measure of the grow
ing appreciation OF the stability OF Sc
| curity prices. Speculative activity, II
IS to be noted. has not yet been stimulated
| to any important extent. and the best
proof OF this Is TO be found In tho calm-
ness with which tho stock market ha.
come 10 regard events like the collapse in
the Gould securities ana tho fall in New
Haven.
That there arc stil, many elements of
uncertainty Ia not To be denied. a too
robust optimism In business and financial
affairs Is hardly advisable. 1t may be
as many believe. that the worst In poli-
tics is known and that the present Ad-
ministration has no more unpleasant sur
prses up Its sleeve The latest develop
ments in the Warburg episode relieved
II OF its most depressing features Blu,
President Wilson's rebuke TO the Senate
committee for Its treatment Of Mr.. War
burg was no more than the circumstance
called for. And yet perhaps the President
went a little out Of his way to empha size
the fact that the Democratic party is moi
the enemy OF business. big or little
Moreover the conference with the Chicago
business men In which suggestions n
criticism OF the antitrust bills were re-.
ceived was an incident pointing strongly
toward real basis OF understanding al
last between the Administration and tn,
business men OF the country. Certainly
a month ago nobody could have imagined
the Administration listening to advic,
from business men on business affairs
Nevertheless in spite OF all this II woulf
he surprising II the business and hnan
cial community did not betray a certain
amount OF caution in accepting these In
cidents at their face value, Reasons for
the sudden volte face OF the Administra
ton may be plausible enough. but IN,
whole thing IL a little bewildering. II
Wall Street ears an alliance" between
the Administration and business sounds
suspiciously like the new freedom
which was the slogan Of tho short LIVED
January boom
The foreign markets have been closei,
concerned with tho bringing out OF the
long delayed French loan and at the clos,
of tho week to some extent with ths
Ulster situation, over which considerable
uneasiness was felt In London. Report.
of the circumstances OF the French oar
fiotation were somewhat confusing. Tn,
issue was oversubscrtbed some thirty OF
forty times, but II appears that this I'm
mense flood OF appl catsons was due mainly
to bids by SPECTATORS and that the popu
lar subscription from the small investor
was relatively small But while the nota
ton did not have the kind of success 4
stimulate an outburst OF confident buyinJ
on the Bourss one gratifying effect is AZ
easier turn TO money rates at the Erencl
capital. To account for caution on tn.
, part OF the French investor II Is problbl,
not necessary to go further than n natura
lack OF confidence in the present Govern
ment. That there are nasty possibil.tie.
I however unlikely, IN the Ulster matter 4
patent and that this should be felt abroat
= IN unSerst an6ahle. II an acceptable solu
: tion OF the troubles in this regard 4
reached speedily II would not he astonish
ing to find relief reflected In this marke
as well as abroad.