The Topeka state journal. [volume] (Topeka, Kansas) 1892-1980, 1914-12-29
AN ENCoURAcING OUTLOOK.

of the year is intensified by the feel
ing Of caution which exists in all parts
of the country" writes Henry Clews.
the New York banker. in his current
review Of the conditions that prevail
in the world of trade and finance;
and he continues: 1T is a fair ques-
ton to ask If this caution is not going
beyond reason and reaching a stage
where it must react. as all sentiment
does when allowed to go to extremes?
It is quite true there have been many
reasons for depression in this extraor-
binary year of 1914. But many of
these reasons no longer exist; some
have been amply discounted. and 9TH
ers of a positively encouraging ma
ture have not yet had an opportunity
to exert their full influence. Among
the reasons for uncertainty which no
longer exist are the Mexican difficult
ties. the antitrust and investigation
manias and the tariff readjustment.
These important problems absorbed
year. but since then have been ig-
nored. and for five months the MAJ
ket has had to unexpectedly face the
most colossal war in history. The en-
tire business world received a shock
which it will take years to obliterate.
So far as this country is concerned,
however, the effect has been very
largely discounted. Business quickly
adjusted itself to war conditions. and
is now going along nearly as usual
In the future this market is more
likely to be sensitive to news indi-
eating peace than to news Of an OPP
posite character. The indications are
that the war may not last as long as
at one time feared; and, if peace
should come within the next six
the financial effects will prove
less disastrous than anticipated, as
all the belligerents are showing a
much greater ability to meet the costs
than was calculated upon. The war,
while still a matter Of great
has been we'll discounted
in this market, and should not pro-
duce any further material depression
moment seem beyond the range of
proba bilities.
This brings us to another set of
causes which are of purely encourag-
ing nature. and which thus far have
had little or no effect upon business or
stock market values. Chief of these is
the clearing of the political atmos-
phere. There has been a most striking
change in the attitude of the federal
government and the legislature toward
business interests. The disposition now
is to- aid. not hinder, business which
had suffered seriously from unreason-
ing hostility. At last the country real
ICES that the Sherman law under the
new Interpretation is sufficient to pro-
tect the people against abuses of
monopoly; and If any doubt on that
score exists the new Clayton law makes
assurance doubly sure. The beneficial
effects Of this change have not yet had
an opportunity OF expressing them
selves. Business has adjusted itself to
the new tariff; and, though some of the
changes work harshly and may come
up for rectification, the tariff as a dis
turbing element has been relegated to
the rear. This favorable development
has also escaped attention. Another
step forward of supreme Importance is
the reconstruction of our banking sys-
tenn upon scientific lines. and in stricter
accordance with long recognized neces-
stiles. The new federal reserve system
made a splendid start on the road to
sound and progressive banking. The
country now has an elastic currency
system; also a plan whereby the bank
ing powers Of the country are concen-
trated, with the power of control dis
tributed somewhat in accordance with
the Importance Of various sections. The
new system is not yet in full working
order. but has already shown its
potentialities for good, and the coun-
try now possesses financial organiza-
ton better able to cope with financial
crises than any which we have hitherto
had. This is another favorable factor
which hos not been adequately reflected
in either business or financial circles.
Still another encouraging factor has
been a good harvest, which saved the
country from a serious setback and i'm
parted positive optimism throughout
the grain belt We raised far too much
cotton to benefit the south; but this
will prove a not unmixed blessing, since
cheap cotton must help both domestic
and European manufacturers to place
their industry upon more normal con-
dition. Lastly the interstate commerce
commission granted the railroads per-
mission to advance rates per cent with
certain well known exceptions. The de-
cision was somewhat disappointing in
asmuch as it is expected to increase
revenues only 30 millions instead of sc
millions as at first stated; but its CHIEF
Importance is the significant change OF
attitude on the part of the commits
sioners toward the railroads. which is
in keeping with the change in the gov
eminent attitude already noted.