Washington standard. [volume] (Olympia, Wash. Territory) 1860-1921, 1914-12-11
WHY OPTIMISM?
Extracts From Address by Geo.
Otis Smith, Director, United
States Geological Survey, Amer
lean Mining Congress, Decem-
Der &, Phoenix, Ariz.

could be greater; on the one shore of
the Atlantic all activity seemingly de-
structive in purpose; on the other
shore, every energy directed along
constructive lines; absolute waste Of
life and property as opposed to pro-
duction of wealth and betterment of
life.
Even though it is at distance that
we view the terrible disaster that
threatens the whole continent of Eu-
rope, optimism seems lost art. Yet
sooner or later this epoch Of catas-
trophe must be followed by a period
of repair, and the longer this period
is delayed the greater will be the
needs involved in the reconstruction
and replacement. Where war has torn
down at terrific speed, peace must
build up slowly.
| The interruption of international
trade stopped our exports of cotton
and copper and our imports of dye
s.uffs and potash, whereby several i'm
portant industries were we'll nigh par
alyzed. Yet startling as has been this
disturbance of the whole balance of
industry, certain fundamental facts
and laws remain for us to build upon
and indeed the lower course of foun-
dation stones for optimism has al
ready been laid.
Evidences of Improvement.
Evidence of business betterment is
before us on every hand, and the rea
sons for optimism are many. The
United States farmer has harvested
five billion dollar crop and there is
a high-price market for all our sur
plus food stuffs; already our grain is
pouring across the Atlantic. The mil
lions of men who are fighting are not
working, and yet these hordes of SOL
as well as fed. Foreign orders have
started factory operation which at
nee tends to relieve the stagnation in
the steam coal trade, the steel situa-
ton has turned from serious depres-
sion to rapid improvement, and the
whole mineral industry may soon ex-
Ipect to share in this general business
improvement.
Today the financial horizon is so
nearly cloudless that the prophets of
bad weather have little upon which
to base their predictions. The new
federal banking system makes the
money reserves mobile as never be-
fore, and extension of credit is now
| ossible, without the veto power re-
naming in the hands of small group
# big men. Still another reason for
belief in business betterment is the
recognition, now becoming wide
spread, of the general interdepend-
ence Of big business and the general
public. On the one side, the people
been in reality the silent partner in
big business. and now that there has
come the promise of some regulation
that will in large part prevent mono
polistic Capitalization, the people are
interested in getting their share Of
returns that can come only with oper-
alton at profit. On the other hand,
the managers of the large corpora
tions, the trustees of the investing
public, are beginning to see that a
certain financial security goes with
public confidence, and that the atti-
tude to the public so tersely expressed
100 years ago by pioneer in railroad
financing does not pay dividends to-
day.
Summary of Four Months.
OF course optimism is apt to go to
extremes. Already we are hearing
such expressions as "trade BOOM" or
opportunity unparalleled in history"
and avalanche of prosperity" and
even hardheaded business men are
quoted as thus characterizing the
present situation. All this kind of
talk indicates that a period of over
stimulation may threaten us, con-
dition that is somewhat symptomatic
of the American temperament. The
four months record, however, can
be summarized thus: While Euro
pean countries have been mobilizing
their armies and calling to the field
of battle their reserves of soldiers,
America has modified its credit and
begun to send forward to the market
place it's vast reserves of food-stuffs
and mineral products.
| Secretary Redfield recognizes three
periods of business conditions as nat
urally following the declaration of
war on August l last--those of shock,
stimulation and readjustment. These