The Washington times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1902-1939, 1914-10-20
THE COTTON PROBLEM.

| 1Helc GIG pSoPtc VIII PSISiSS IL
demanding to know why great cot.
ton problem exists. They point Out
that most of the worlds inhabitants
are still wearing clothes, Just as
they did before the war started. In
fact, a good many millions of .hem
are likely to wear cotton who for
merly wore wool. The soldiers in
the field, millions and millions of
them, will wear more cotton by far
than they would have needed in time
Of peace; if they don't wear out a
suit of khaki each every month, they
will be very considerate Of their uni
forms.
There are mills to manufacture the
cotton, and people to wear it Il is
not possible to say that the people
suddenly are left without the means
to buy, because the same people arc
buying wheat at greatly increased
prices; and many other necessaries
as we'll.
What, then, is it that differenti-
ates cotton from other staples?
If no killing fros,s occur in the
cotton States until lare this autumn,
there may be a crop of 17,000,0np
bales. That would be much the larg-
est ever raised; and the price would
Rave to go down, by reason of the
big production, even if there had
bcen no war or ether extraordinary
departure from normal conditions.
Among men who know cotton best,
the opinion is widely expressed that
Scent cotton would have arrived by
January ], even if peac, and perfect
ly regular conditions had persisted.
Eight-cent cotton would have been
about on parity with S5-cent wheat,
ard the beginnings of the nrcsen:
wheat crop were brought on the
market at about that price. But
wheat jumped up 70 the dollar mark,
and is now far above THAI mark; cot
ton dropped, and, whatever nominal
quotations may be named, the fact
stands that there is almost TO
market for it at any price.
To begin, people in time Of great
crisis worry first about getting some
thing to eat. They can wait a long
time for clothes and bedding; not
many hours for food. The old suits
and shirts can be stretched over N
extra long period Of service the
meal that was eaten yesterday can't
he made to do service any longer
than till the next :ncaltime.
So. as soon as war settled down
on Europe, Europe bethought it of
its food supply. Everybody who had
the price rushed OUT to buy as much
as possible and store it against the
possible day of stress. The boarding
of food became a scandal in England,
and rigocous government measures
had to be taken to stop it.
Nobody was boarding cotton, be-
cause cotton was not such an instant
necessity. But, of course, as the
first scare over the war and the pos
sifility Of starvation subsidies, peo-
pie will get back to thinking about
secondary necessities; they will think
Of the ole clothes with increasing
areas of patches, and want to buy
rev ones.
Meantime, however, the certainty
that people had largely quit buying
cotton goods for a time will have
demoralized the market. The price
Of cotton in the talc will depend on
the prospect for selling it after it is
made into cloth. Manufacturers, un-
certain how soon or to what extent
the WORLD will get back to buying,
will be uncertain at what price they
can contract to sell the goods: there
fore they will fear to buy the raw
cotton and go ahead making it up.
The one thing that is certain is
that there is vast uncertainty about
the price the worlds requirements
and means will finally place on this
years cotton crop. Supnose Brit
ism manufacturer buys 10000 bales
at 8 cents, and proceeds to manufac-
ture it into goods. Suppos.., after he
tuys his 1C ,0o0 bales, The price drops
10 7 cents, ard his competitor buys
another 10000 bales at that figure
end proceeds 20 manufacture il. Mani
testify, the man with the S-cent cot
ton will have to sell at as low price
rs that made by the man with the
7-cent cotton. That means heavy
loss for the manufacturer with the
higher priced cotton.
In these conditions, with every
tody fearful about the ultimate price
basis, manufacturers hold back from