Bismarck daily tribune. [volume] (Bismarck, Dakota [N.D.]) 1881-1916, 1914-03-29
Reliability of Statistics

Reliability of Statistics
Much has been said and written concerning the
reliability of statistical pater gathered by the various
departments both state and federal charged with the
collection Of this most important information Nat
urally the work of the government bureau, emanat
Ing as it does from the highest official in the
United States, has generally been conceded the most
credence and other sources in consequence, looked
upon with more or less skepticism.
That ths-in many instances, at least-grossly
unjust is becoming more and apparent to those
whose interest in these matters has given them
sion to Investigate the methods in vogue when the
gathering and abuation of statistics becomes neces
sary.
Having specific reference agricultural statistics
we have the word of the Bureau of Statistics of the
u s. Department of Agriculture that the figures
given in this bulletin (No. 570) all estimates,
but are believed to be the best obtainable.' With
such confession is 1t not permissible to express
doubt as to the value of these same figures which
have heretofore been accepted as the final authority
concerning the matters to which they relate, and
have even made the base from which to figure large
speculative operation i'm the various agricultural
products? !
The bulletin goes on to narrate the five independ.
ent sources of information" upon which it bases its
authoritative statements, as follows Cd Approx
mately 10000 township correspondents; ca Approx
mately $500 county correspondents; 3) As statstl-
cal agents. (4) 10 special field agents, individual
farmers and special correspondents or total Of ap
proximately 144564.' The vast amount of more or
less conflicting Information thus gathered is then
tabulated and dressed into shape by body of flour
bureau officials, two special field agents and ad.
,Nsory member from the Bureau of the Census
Their final findings are then checked 80 far as pos
sble against the totals reported by state assessors
and the statistics published by the Bureau Of the
Census
At the first glance the methods described above
seem to be very commendable. The weight Of num-
ebrs is impressive the crop reporting board seems
weighty and unimpeachable, while the final checking
with other sources Of information appears to add the
last proof conscientious collaboration and infable
accuracy.
But second thought and little analytical invest-
cation gives cause for doubt In the first place the
impressive number of township county, state
and other correspondents must be divided among the
number Of states in which figures are gathered-that
Is. by So Then 1t must be remembered that each
report is admittedly an estimate" ony-that u.s. the
personal opinion of someone who looks upon field
Of grain, bin of grain, or likely repeats the
title tattle of the country postoce and gro
Gerry and mails his alleged information from within
few feet of the spot where he hears 1t. III no
single instance is the report based upon the bushe
measure or instrument of the surveyor, for, II such
were the case it would not be possible to publish the
exact results at the time that they are published
with the official sanction Of the U. s. Department,
setting forth to decimal point the yield per acre.
yield In bushels and the acreage from which the
yields were secured, while it is definitely known
that the threshing machine is still at work upon the
very crop of which the statistics are given with
such precise exactitude. 1t u.s. indeed, wise the
part of the department to deprecate the reliability OF
figures thus secured, by admitting them to be estt-
mates only. About the best that be said for
such system is that it is elaborate guess, neces
sary to justify the existence of bureau that seems
to cater to the feverish demand of grain spectators
for information Of some sort upon which to formu-
late market operations.
Compare the system just described with the man
ner Of gathering agricultural statistics in state
where accuracy is not sacrificed to speed, where time
Is given to measure the acreage, harvest the crop
and thresh the grain before an attempt is made to
tabuate the final results.
Such state is North Dakota, SO recently the SUI
ferer by broadcast dissemination Of alleged yields
and values as tabulated by the Federal Department
OF Agriculture which grossly misrepresented the
conditions and relegated the greatest agricultural
state IN the Union to position in the ranks
lar as agricultural products were concerned.
In North Dakota the collector of statistics does
not preempt position the sugar barrel and tab
uate his statistics the while he munches free lunches
ct the expense of the grocery He lis first of all
the township assessor who has to hustle in order
earn his daily pay. He is sworn and bonded officer
Of the state government and important part of his
sworn duties is the collection of exact information
49, - 10
Ing the acreage planted, the acreage harvested the
yield In bushels, and tons of hay during the crop
season preceding the assessors visit; also the