The Birmingham age-herald., 1914-05-31
INDICATIONS ARE
 MORE FAVORABLE Mexican Situation Subject
 to Sudden Change TRADE BALANCES Authorities Devoting Much Time to Study of Apparent Effects
 of New Tariff

The First National banks financial and commercial review for the month just ending Is as follows:
 There have been few noteworthy changes during the past month in busi- ness conditions, although there Is a much better sentiment and there are some fa- vorable indications in sight. The Mexican situation is still complex, but the media ton proceedings at Niagara Falls appear to be progressing satisfactorily, and 1t begins to look as though a settlement of the Mexican trouble will be possible without such active Intervention on the part of the United States as seemed in evitable month ago. The Mexican prob lem is parallel in many respects to the Balkan situation in eastern Europe, and the status in both quarters is susceptible of very sudden changes
 Trade authorities have devoted much | attention to the analysis of figures re- lating to our foreign trade, and to the adverse trade balance during the month | of April amounting to s1O g71 ,s72. This has l excited a good deal of comment, partic- l ularly as our imports have not exceeded | our exports since August, 1910. It Is al- | together probable that when the figures for May are announced that the balance | of trade will again be against us. and | there is a disposition in some quarters | to place the blame for this condition | at the door of our new tariff law, and it has been pointed out that our increased | imports are made up of non-dutiable com modities., The position seems to be well | taken, however, that the permanent ef- feet of tariff upon our foreign trade | cannot be judged in the early months of it's operation, and reference has been made to the fact that during the early | days of the operation of the Dingley tariff | our imports exceeded our exports by about | $l9,00Oo coo in a single month. It is en- tirely natural that our exports should | show decrease during the months of | April and May The cotton movement | abroad is nearly over during these months | and exports of wheat have not yet be- l gun. Owing to the moderate food crops | made in thls country last year our i'm | ports of farm products are now much | larger than usual and our exports of such | commodities are less. For the first four months of 1914 the commercial trade bal | ance In favor of this country amounted | to s6s,3l1,S71, and as the season advances exports of cotton and foodstuffs will | doubtless give us a normal commercial | trade balance.
 Bumper Wheat Crop
 All indications now point to a bumper crop of wheat, conservatively estimated at 800, 00O.0 bushels, and by some placed as high as a billion bush els. It is, of course, too early to make any estimates on the cotton crop, or IS to the production of corn. There have been complaints of too much rain in W ct arr hA1f Mississippi river it has been very dry and rains are now beginning to be needed In this immediate section the past month has been very dry but good rains fell in time to bring cotton up to a good stand. There has been an Increased use of fertilizer and the preparation of soil has been unusual ly good. The crop is clean and free from grass and we regard the start in this state as good one.
 'The local iron and steel mark ct re- mains dull, although some small or ders for pig iron and several rail or ders have been booked Quotations are still around $11 for No. g. The foundry and machine shops report some slight improvement. but the cast iron pipe plants are complaining of slow demand. At this season coal is natur- ally dull. but the situation has recent ly been enlivened somewhat by reason of purchases by the government of coal from this district which is now being taken on by colliers at Pensa- cola
 Railroads will soon enter their new fiscal year and the interstate commerce commission is expected to render its decision as to freight rates at an early date. Should the eastern railroads be granted a moderate increase in rates or should the commission be able to show them in a practical way how else they may increase their net rev enue, the effect on business would be stimulating
 Slackening in Business
 For some months past there has been almost worldwide slackening in busi- ness activity and large crops would do more than all other factors combined to relieve existing dullness. It should be remembered that conditions during the first six months of 1912 were distinctly more unfavorable than those of 1914, but as soon as it became apparent that the crops were to be bountiful a revival of trade set in which continued for more than year. There are many authorities who two years ago felt that revival at that time was premature and predicted that 1t would be only a spurt, who are now on record as believing that conditions are ripe for permanent upward swing,
 
 has been passed, and that as soon as 1t becomes evident that our crops will be bountiful this season, the effect will be discounted and the revival will at once set in which, if not handicapped by untoward events now unexpected, should develop into lasting period of prosperity 'Actlve steps have been taken during the past month in the matter of organza- tion of the 12 federal reserve banks and there seems to be no question that by August 1 they will all be in operation. so that there will be no difficulty in fnanc. ing bumper crops should they be made.
 Money continues to be a drug on the market at all financial centers. Both the state of Alabama and the city of Birming- ham are entitled to excellent credit and yet by reason of-our peculiar laws it is difficult to how either state or city can be tided over successfully until their revenues for the current year become available Under our constitution the city of Birmingham has no way of relieving itself by an increase in tax rate, and 1t Is not desirable that there should be an increase In assessments which would result in a threefold burden on the tax payers. as both the county and state would share in such an increase.
 "The state would now be in excellent financial condition but for appropriations made by the legislatures of 1907 and 1911 The present governor has indicated a dis position to release to schools and other Teritorious benefciaries certain appro- priations that were made in the spring of 1911, and should he do this 1t is our information that the incoming adminis- ously handicapped for ready money. From uo hav hoosa oh1 tn