The Washington times., 1914-01-17
FORECASTER HITS
GOOSE BONE PROPHET
Says Willy Amateur Weather
Man RetaiIS Government
Tips as His Own.

READING, Pa, Jan. &c. J. Do
herty. head of the Governments local
Weather Bureau, has finally decided to
strike back at Berks county's numerous
goosebone weather prophets, whose pre-
IiCtions in the newspapers every year
make interesting reading. They have
ueen particularly active recently, and
,his seems to have nettled those who
orecast weather by scientific methods.
The goosebone prophets, it is believed,
will reply to the charge that they get
their predictions from the Government
bureau here, and that they theh hand
them out as their own. They are much
encouraged now that the Government
has given them official recognition. Mr..
Doherty says:
The weather Bureau is not infalliole.
It is wrong about once in ten times.
The weather is not forecast along lines
Of mathematical precision as are as
Economical phenomena. Everything
that is based on human judgment is
likely to err. The great marine ana
commercial industries OF the country nl,
have come to depend on the Weather
bureau. Millions Of dollars have been
saved at sea by accurate weather pre-
dictions. Thousands of lives were saved
in Galveston and Key West, because
the people had q warning OF the ap-
preaching high storm which had arisen
over the Caribbean Sea.
Science and GOOsebOne.
Mr.. Doherty was twice commended
uy CONGRESS- for efficient work at Key
West and Galveston during the storm
periods referred to. When the name
Of a certain goosebone weather proph-
ct was mentioned Mr.. Doherty declar-
cd that every one has the right to an
opinion and cited incidents where
boys and girls six and seven years OF
age predicted cold weather for Feb
ruary. and the children were believed
by their parents.
The life of a goosebone prophet is
filled with many interesting incl
dents" said Mr.. Doherty. "a man is
anxious for fame and takes to the
goosebone He kills the fattest goose
aad in the presence of a few men and
women who humor him more for their
own pleasure than sincerity he makes
weather predictions such as most any
child in school knows will be accurate.
II the day breaks brightly the goose
if,lAes- weather phaphet predicts sun
light, it comes. and another convert
iS-added to his growing list.
-
snl II il rains his predicti0hs are true
and he is proclaimed the greatest man
in the community. Should the weather
suddenly change and the sky become
clear his admirers and followers VIII
say: He Just missed il this time But
when these same people want to go to
a picnic. they call up the Weather
Bureau"
Game Leg May Help.
Mr. Dogherty takes more stock in the
predictions made by people annoyed by
warts. corns and game limbs than in
those based on the goosebone. In Illus
trating this he said.
T predicted rain for the afternoon of
Christmas Day, December 25. 1913, and it
rained Half an hour before IL began to
rain 1 met a lame man who complained
Of his wound and said, I believe it will
rain before long, ! asked him II he
had read my prediction and he said he
haid. There are many so-called weather
prophets who call up this office for the
true prediction and then hand IL about
70 the people via the goosebone route
The goOsebone prophets as a rule have
car conditions. knowing that il is cold |
in winter and warm in summer.
In their statements they said it
would be could in January, February
and March. Dates are mentioned in
their forecast. and If unusually cold
weather should come within twenty
days of the one they name they consider
their forecasting remarkable. The
Eoosebons prophets predictions are not
based on any tangible facts and are
merely guesses-'