The Hattiesburg news. (Hattiesburg, Miss.) 1908-1917, 1914-10-01
ALEXANDER FITz-HUGH, BANK DI.
RECTOR OF vIckseURe,
GIVES VIEWS.
OATS PLANTED NOW POSITIVE.
EVIDENCE OF GOOD FAITH
Price Of Cotton Matter Of Supply and
Demand-Price For Six Months De-
termined BY What Trade Believes
Reduction viii Be, After Planting.

The following article was prepared
for THE Mississippi Banker, by Alex
ander Fitz-Hugh, Director of the Mer
chants National Bank of Vicksburg
He is one of the best bankers in the
state and deep student of the cotton
problem.
To the grower of cotton, in his de
lemma today, the same words NAV
properly be spoken. The truth may be
unwelcome but upon it must be built
the foundation of any successful So
luton of the cotton problem now con
fronting the South.
A United States cotton crop of 49,
100000 bales is indicated with 1900
600 bales visible supply on September
LIST, 1914; making an available supply
OF American cotton for the ensuing
year of 17,500,000 bales.
According to Mr. H. G. Hester, sec
retary of the New Orleans Cotton Ex-
change, and an acknowledged author
ity, the consumption of American cot
ton the past year was 14,30O, 900 bales.
| of which the European countries now
at war took about 100000 bales. Mr..
hester estimates that, due to the war,
the worlds consumption of American
cotton was reduced 100000 bales dur
ing the month of August alone.
Should consumption for the coming
year equal that of the past year, even
then the surplus of American cotton
from this crop, on August 1st 1915,
would be 100000 bales. Now it is
quite probable that European consump-
tion will fall off 100000 bales. We
VIII assume, on the other hand, that
the consumption in neutral countries
Will increase 100000 bales-though
this is by no means assured. Such a
readjustment would leave a net de-
crease in world consumption of 3,oOO.-
900 bales-and thereby result in a to-
tai surplus of American cotton of this
crop, on August 1st, 1915, of e,2OO 700
bales.
Inc price of any commodity is gov
erned by the relation between supply
and demand. The greater the excess
Of supply over demand, the greater the
1ecline in price. The supply and the
1emand which determine price are not
'nly present, but prospective.
In 1860, for instance, cotton sold at
In average price of 13c per pound, with
3,5OO,0O0 bales crop. In 1861, with
100000 bale crop and an increased
upply cotton sold at 31c per pound.
The advance in price partly resulted
rom the anticipated, or prospective,
ecrease in subsequent supply. due
o the expectation that the South
7ould be unable to produce cotton on
ccount of the continuation of the
yar.
In January, 1912, with the certainty Z
100000 bale crop 1.-TWO million |
ales in excess of any previous record) i
otton began to advance from 81
ents pound and, by March, reached L
level of 10R cents. This advance S
as due to anticipated consumption a
hich was expected to be stimulated d
Y relatively low price. t
The 1914 wheat crop of the United t
tates is approximately 9O0,OOO,O0O S
15O,000,OOO bushels C
eater than any previous yield. Yet, t
ecember wheat advanced from SOC Il
nearly $1.25-not upon any present t.
sufficiency of supply, but upon the Il
of decreased worlds supply
Id an increased worlds demand for W
g coming year. on account of the s
lropean war. m
These are instances of the effect on 81
esent prices wrought by prospective IL
anges in supply and demand.
This brings us to the answer to the =
estion propounded in the heading =
this articl.. .
The Price Of Cotton. X
For the foming six months. the price :
(Confinued on Page Two) =