The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-04-27
4 warfare 10 purchase stocks

bear on values. 10 very large eAteut
| also the stock market has already made
| so much preparation for trouble on other
accounts during the last year that Its
capacity for decline on account OF war
must be limited. Under these .circum-
stances the share list Is more likely than
not TO respond favoraby to the progress
of the crops. to political reaction from
wild adventures In the realms OF theory
and to other influences which can work
a swift revulsion In financial and bust
ness sentiment from detection to optimism.
It.does not follow from the buying OPP
portunites which the share list offers that
war Is likely to be a factor OF expansion
In business earnings and profits on which
security prices are based. The banking
and business community must look
facts In the face Just as Washington Is
having to look facts in the face to-day
and must not count the gains or war be-
fore counting It's cost War affords no
impulse to genuine economic expansion
and It Is unfortunate that the country has
80 fresh In mind so false an analogy In
this respect as the circumstances or the
Spanish war In 1898 seem to offer.
Our brief war with Spain did not give
a stimulus to the forward economic move
ment which broke out into such tre-
mendous expansion of prosperity over the
turn of the century. The Spanish war
was simply. as can be seen now. an ac-
c.dent altogether negligible In country
which was supremely tit to go ahead to
do business and was already moving
forward. II had been through a thor
oughgoing liquidation Of the most far
reaching character. Corporate sccuri-
ties, both railroad and Industrial, had
been reduced to breaking UP values
where they wero easily absorbed and
firmly lodged Every weak spot In the
financial and business situation had been
eliminated. Imitation was out or every
thing from self-estcem to the wages or
labor and the selling price OF real estate.
Habits OF economy had been enforced and
years of violent political turmoil had
terminated I'm an election In which the
country voted for policies or govern
mental assistance to constructive business
effort. Among other things. and this Is
important to notice, the tar'n basis OF
trade and industry had been changed
back again to the protective level to
which American business was accus-
toned II the Spanish war seemed to
start business forward II WINS only be-
cause the forward movement was al
ready underway and Il would have taken
q far greater calamity than the conflict
with Spain even to check II There IL no
need Of surveying the various Items In
the reckoning which make 1914 . con-
trast with 1898. but reflective persons
cannot fail TO seq that arguments for
prosperity from a Mexican war based on
Spanish war analoyies depend largely
upon Imagination.
Moreover, the thrill which brought the
country to its feet when the Spanish
war broke out is stili to be evoked. The
Mexican imbroglio has made for de-
pression of sentiment already depressed.
The country IL as though stunned by the
| discovery that Il had been brought 20
| war, and II II Is ever persuaded that
war With Mexico at This particular time
was Unavoidable. persuasion is long
way off The feeling that a gigantic blum
der had been made with the best OF IN
tentions must have great influence over
| moods which will presumably have their
| marketwise and trade reflection.
The loyalty Of support which tho coun-
| try will give the national Government IN
| all measures that may be necessary -
deal with task that cannot be escaped
| by the way OF regret can only becon'
| the expression OF determined purpos'
| TO make the shortest possible work or
an unwelcome Job because II mas pe-
| come inevitable. II will not obliterate
the feeling that II foreign policies a,
Washington had not been such dismal
congeries 81 theoretic utilities the coun :
| try might have been spared the j1o an
| this feeling can hardly fail to manifest
| itself in the mlrketplace. The WORST thine
| nj the moment In The Mexican factor ~
| It's unknown uuit1ltllNs iHt ~"
| makes II difficult for finance both at
home and abroad to deal with the new
! situation depending on Mexican outcomes
! IL the uncertainty arising from the per-
| slstance Of those ultra-pacihc council-
! n, Washington which have been response
| bic for precipitatinE the Mexican crisis
II Is not only laws that are silent
! IN war Important matters of routin"
| lose much Of their customary eloquence'
! rrigfs renders II hArtlN
worth while to consider nj length other
subjects OF ordinary financial moment
| but this review cannot Ice closed WITH
| out at least reNettng 10 the changes
| which have been taking place III tho
| money market. Interest rates have maze
| a hardening response 10 the beginning "'
/ Mexican hostilities, and there are signs
Of complicating stresses In money which
may make the market for credits much
| loss academic affair IN the near future
! than Il has been for several months
Foreign exchange has risen to gold eN-
/ mort level, and the problem or financing
| a war with Mexico bids fair 10 ne IAN
eied ur with European requirements. the
foreign scramble for gold. our sustained
, import movement In foreign trade AND
| Europe's sale Of our securities are al
| combining to force gold shipments from
| this side In the meantime II Is indicated
! that European affairs are not NJ All sats
factory and American nnahce must nave
regard not only for domestic condition
but for the conditions which on Europe ;
| own account are making for continued
husiness depression abroad and causing
! continued weakness In tho foreign Sc
| curty markets
War possibilities are not IN" only thine'
10 consider Apart from matters Whl'i
have been discussed here In recent Weeks
such as the bearing Of large political al
terations ON the incentives and scope o
economic enterprise In our own land, there
Is still to he reckoned with the econolni'
position OF other lands, which are fal
from being In as good shape politically
financially and industrially Az the United
States American prospects Tor the re
covery Of prosperity are involved In tn
European outlook. which IL more or les
clouded Before our Mexican relations
became critically difficult Europe wa
already disturbed by the gold grabbing
connection OF Continental nations. whlcl
might be an expression OF aggressive mill
tarism coinciding with the grave Hines
of the Austrian Emperor or token o
the financial strain denoted by the post
poned adjustments of last years unset
Element and by the current extent o
trade and Industrial depression and stoc
market stagnation and weakness. Gu
Mexican imbroglio may have been 70
Europe something in the nature OF tn