The Richmond Virginian. (Richmond, Va.) 1910-1920, 1914-11-01
INDICATIONS POINT TO CONCLU
SION DRAWN ny AMERICAN
NATIONAL BANK.
NOVEMBER'S FORECAST
GENERAL LETTER ON TRADE con-
OPTIONS DECLARES LOWEST
LEVEL WAS REACHED BE-
FORE WAR BEGAN.

We are not on the eve. but really IL
ehe midst, OF material Improvement
in business and, although some lines
must still suffer because Of the Euro
pean conflict and other unsatisfactory
conditions. the larger portion OF the
business world and the majority oil
lines will show Improvement from this
time on, partly because of the war and
partly because business repression has
lasted as long as 1t can, says the trade
conditions letter and business forecast
for November. issued yesterday by the
American National Bank of Richmond
Business went below the normal line
early In 1911 and 1t zis-zagged back
and forth above and below normal
until nearly the middle OF 1913 al
which time IL went below normal and
has since remained there. falling to its
lowest level In July. before the war was
declared, and not in August after the
declaration OF war. as many business
men have believed. The business level
OF August was very low. in septem
Der We climbed slightly nearer to nor
NAL and IL is believed that very early
In the. new year business will have
made full return TO normal
Just now boom times" are being
talked and such talk should be frpwn.
gances and causes too strong an an
ticIpation OF possible business. over
extension OF credit and over borrow
ing should be carefully avoided. bat
the times are propitious in most lines
for good strong pull. with every
promise Of a material increase in bust
ness and profits.
Bank ciearings for s ptefnber fairly
evidence the conditions OF business
hAt tNN al Tss.
changes being TO, o2i million dollars
compared with j3s47 last year. Out
side of New York city ciearings We're
5,3Ss, compared with 9.99l a year
ago, showing that The larger portion
of the decline was In New York opera
tions. partially accounted for by no
stock transactions and iessened foreign
Trade.
September business failures totaled
1.4s2, with liabilities of twenty seven
million dollars, compared with Liza
failures a year ago. with liabilities OF
nineteen million dollars. The liahiii-
ties OF the concerns falling III Septem-
Der were eleven million dollars less
than for August, and one million dol
lars less than the monthly average for
the year to date, showing some i'm
tfo%ement.
Dividends and Exports.
During October nearly 100 million
dollars were paid out in interest and
dividends. which liz exactly the same
amount a. was disbursed in October
last year. Dividends amounted to
eighty-seven millions. compared with
nearly ninety-two millions last year
and interest totaied seventy-three null
lions, compared with less than sixty
eight millions last year. Our recent
dividend record has been remarkable.
In view OF conditions. but 1t cannot be
maintained unless a very great increase
In general business activity develops
during the closing weeks OF the
wear.
Our September exports amounted TO
las million dollars, against lilo mill
lions for August and Els millions for
September year ago. We imported
a3s million dollars In merchandise IN
September. against 1919 millions in
August and Ill millions In September
Of last year. Our September foreign
trade Melted Zig a favorable trade bal
Ance Of seventeen million dollars, COM
pared with an -unfayorahle balance in
August of nineteen millions and fav-
orable balnce In September Of last
year Of forty-seven millions.
Tho gold movement for the month
WAS against us, netting loss to Us
In gold of nineteen million dollars
while n year ago the gold movement
was four millions in our favor. Since
the beginning of 1919 our exports oil
gold have exceeded our imports by
14s million dollars.
In 100 Of the principal cities Of the
United States. Indicated building oper.
\ atlons for September amounted Il
flffy-stx million dollars. being about
nineteen millions less than for this
same month last year. The few cities
showing increased building activity 70,
the month include Cleveland. Milwau.
kee, st. Paul and Denver.
August Railroad Earnings.
Final figures on railroad ernings foi
August show a gross OF 27O millions
against ISL millions for the same
month last year while net earnings
amounted to nearly lightweight mil.
Hons, compared with slightly over
OiRhty-seven millions year ago
| August. 1918. will be remembered a.
very unsatisfactory month In the
. matter OF railroad earnings, so thai
/ the flxures on net earnings for Angus,
f ~ this year are not 80 encouraging al
| they appear on their face. So far Al
reported, September gross earnings are
( per cent below September OF last
year. A the operating expenses Of
the railroads are now out OF proper.
tion to their restricted earnings
further rate increases would seem In,
svitable or the -holders of railroad
securities may have to do without div.
idends for some time. The proposed
rate increase, II allowed. together with
! general quickening Of traffic. which
y likely to come. should enable thu
railroads to put themselves In good
shape within year and create real
demand for riiroad securities. Such
1 demand must come before financing
or any consequences can be under
taken.
with 131 thousand idle cars on the
frst Of October, the employment OF
ave thousand additional cars is shown
although the present number idle II
40 thousand more than q year ago.
The lumber cut for August was T.,
40 million feet. which was exactly the
namo ~ IN July. but moro than loo
nyIljpm feot - than In August q year
800 AnguGt shipuaents were e71 mil