The Birmingham age-herald. [volume] (Birmingham, Ala.) 1902-1950, 1914-12-07
Reasons Why America Is
On Eve of Remarkable
Period of Prosperity
MUCH COTTON TO
MOVE THIS MONTH
Secrecy of Orders Placed By For
eign Nations Has Made 1t Diff
cult to Realize Their
Vast Importance
by HOLLAND


There come now and then reports to this
city from other parts of the country in
timating that if there is a beginning of
domestic business activity of kind that
points to great and rapid increase it would
be interesting to know where that &C.
tivity is to be found. Some of the re-
ports say that exaggerated accounts of
purchases in the United States of COM
modities by belligerent and neutral ma
tons are now widely circulated. From
New England is heard the question,
Where are these heavy purchases OF
shoes of which so much has been said
made-certainly not in New England?" So
also, the assertion is made that unfounded
reports of increased activity In the manu-
factories where electrical apparatus is
made have been in circulation
These reports clearly show, It is be-
lieved here, that there are spots in the
country where the immediate and direct
effect of the heavy purchases made IN
the United States has not yet been felt.
Furthermore. no responsible person has
as yet proclaimed that great increase
of business activity throughout the Uni
tSo t'tdttc lldS veg H. 1uL there mas
been unanimous opinion voiced by those
who abe competent to give it that we
are upon the eve of such business activ-
ity in the United States as we have not
heretofore known. The mistake which is
made by those who complain that bust
ness still remains not very good is due
to the fact that they are speaking of
existing conditions, whereas those best
informed say we shall not see unques-
toned evidences of revival of activity
until after the first of the new year.
Watch Increasing Foreign Trade
Probably In all of the financial institu-
tions here and elsewhere closer heed Is
now paid to the daily reports which tell
of our increasing foreign. trade than to
the detailed reports of the progress of
the war In Europe. The story of the
war from one point of view IS subordi-
nate in interest to the story of the ex-
traordinary revival of foreign trade. Sta
tisticians at Washington and private rec
ords which have been made from day to
DAY furnish proof that cannot be denied
not merely of an immediate increase in
our foreign trade, but also of the promise
of continued increases until by midwin-
ter there will be a record of an increase
whose proportions two months ego would
have been deemed impossible. The record
of our foreign trade In November Is not
yet reported with the accuracy which
characterizes governmental statistics. But
there have been private records as we'll
as a partial estimate at Washington
which show that our foreign trade for
November was in money value approx
mately $215,0OO.00O. That furnished q
handsome excess in the money value of
49, tz.
with a like value of commodities Import
ed. 1t is possible now to assume that the
International visible trade balance in our
favor for the calendar year will be not
far from $250,00O,o00. When It is remem-
bered that in July Of this year all the
indications pointed to an adverse trade
balance for the calendar year then some
idea can be obtained Of the magnitude
of the change.
But for the fact that our trade with
South America Is below what 1t should
be and IL in that condition as a direct
consequence of war the favorable figures
for the year would be much larger.
Europe and the neutral nations are likely
to make a new record in this calendar
year SO far as the purchases of wheat
are concerned. We have already sold an
amount OF wheat of the money value al
most but not quite as great as the total
value of the wheat we exported last year.
There seems to be no doubt that Europe
will take within few weeks, inclusive
Of what has already been taken, SUBJ
stantially the entire surplus Of wheat
harvested in the United States.
The Story of Cotton
The month of December should furnish
q new factor of great Importance in our
foreign trade. We are Undoubtedly to
export large quantities of cotton and will
continue to do that well into the spring
of next year. One reason why there
seems to be some confusion Of ideas re-
sreoting our business activity is to be
found In the fact that purchases made On
account of foreign nations In the United
States are as secretly made as is pos
sible. ..s.- 4 srss
We can only get an fdea OF the char
acter, of some of them by studying this
custom house records which set forth In
detail some of these exports. One inter-
esting fact is disclosed by this study and
that Is contracts which have already been
made with American manufacturers rep
resenting in money value many millions
of dollars, In one instance alone $4,000 :
900, are not reflected in the statistics
which report authoritatively the details
OF our recent exports. The reason for
this is that the commodities which these
contracts call for are not yet ready for
delivery. That IL especially true OF ma
chinery, tools and apparatus which u to