The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-11-13
CAN THE WAR LAST LONGf
summary Of the Views and Estimates OF
PanI Leroy Beaulieu.


Moral and Political Science in Paris NJ.
Leroy Beaulieu, the veteran editor of
LEcoHomtste Franc ais, gave an address
upon the resources of the belligerents.
the cost of the war and the question OF
economic exhaustion.
First OF all, he. found that the Allies
can draw upon a population OF 321 mill
ions. or counting India and the colonies.
upon a population OF 73S millions. The
population of Germany and Austra-Hun-
gary IL about 10 millions. Thus there is
already a population Of about 1854 mill
ions, one-half OF the human race, partici-
pating In the war. But besides the bel!ig-
erents there are the neutral countries
which have modified In order to protect
themselves or with view to eventua.
aggression, Italy, Sweden, Rumania, Hol-
land and Switzerland, another sixty mill
ions OF people who are spending extraordi-
nary sums on ornaments In time OF peace.
Turning to the bellgerent nations in
Europe. NJ. Leroy Beaulieu points out that
obligatory service extends in France to
all men OF 20 to ~ years OF age. and
owing TO the fact that In the last twenty
years the population of France has been
fairly stationary while that OF Germany
has grown rapidly, the French army liz
more nearly equal in size to the German
than the present populations OF thirty
Hlle 10 blNty-slN UllllOns WOulu tusbtbt'
The real proportion. in fact, for men of
fighting age Is 80 for France against 81
for Germany, say, 100000 against
100000. He further argues that Russia
with III millions and Great Britain and
her sclf-governnE colonies with 20 mill
Ions can increase their forces in tho field
to a far greater extent and with far less
sacrifice than Germany and Austria.
VI. Leroy Beaulieu then asks whether
10 To ,..4t h.
whole adult male population OF military
age In the field. This, he says, was done
nifty years ago by Paraguay In a war
lasting several years against the Argen-
tine Republic IL was accomplished again
by the Beers In their war against Great
Britain in 1899 to 1902; 1t was accom-
plished again In the two recent Balkan
wars by Servia, Bulgaria. Turkey and
Greece. prodigious effort. Thus he
says Experience proves that a war
which arms the whole population OF mill
tary age II possible, and may last long
time. II Is more n question OF psychics
than OF physics. But how can a nation
deprived of its commerce and Of the
means OF dsposng of its industrial.
products maintain such "A war? 1t is a
problem which has seemed insoiuble to
many. Nevertheless, it liz capable OF a
practical solution The absolutely indis-
pensable industries can be carried on,
though OF course on reduced scale.
Boys, old men and women replace the
men Thus the vintage Is proceeding in
the Midi, though II will be prolonged
owing to the want OF men and horses.
with the assistance. It should be added,
of many Spanish laborers"
When the French economist turns 10
the case OF Germany he finds that her
commerce Is more or less In a state OF
blockade, and that she may find a good
zeal or difficulty In obtaining from abroad
such raw materials as copper nickel
petrol, rubber. wool, cotton and iute.
which are urgently needed for the manu-
facture OF guns. munitions. accoutre-
nents, &c. But with such neutral king
doms on the frontier as Rumania, Italy,
switzerland, Holland. Denmark, and with
the Baltic Sea more or less controlled by
tho German fleet, these difficulties and
the problem or buying additional food
supplies from abroad may easily be ex-
aggerated. He argues thai so long as the
population of Germany is united by mill
tary ardor and national sentiment, re-
garding the war as Just and holy, IL is
not likely TO be reduced by starvation;
and he sums up: There In no economic
or physical impossibilty In prolonged
duration Of the war. II there are no de-
cisive military events, one may very well
look forward to a war lasting six months.
ptIudps longer.
our own national expenditure for the
first ten days Of October amounted TO
t20,307,7IS, compared with fs,sS3304
for the corresponding period OF last year
Outlay on supply services shows an in
crease Of over 11la millions at flb,-
32454i. The cost of the war rises as the
army swells in size. The revenue Is ex-
traordlnariy good. and shows the enor-
nous advantage OF our free trade system.
For the ten days II was f5.356,4sO COM
pared with f5,994.305, for the same pc
Rod in October. 1918. Let us assume
that of the total roughly one million a
day which the war has been costing u.s.
$500 900 is spent by the War Office and
100000 by the Admiralty. This means
5l9 millions sterling n week for the army
ana y millions sterling for the navy in
excess OF peace expenditure. What Is
the excess for Germany? We would sug-
gcst as minimum figure 1917 millions
81, Ring week for the army and half a
million for the navy. And yet we find
that Berlin has given out officially that
expenditure is at the rate of only one
million Il day, 365 millions a year, to-
ward which the war loan has provided
23O enough for nearly eight months. II
our figure is near the mark the loan will
be exhausted in about three weeks time
certainly long before 1t has all been gath
cred iu Md the German imperial reve-
nue.. dependent largely on customs, must
have shruuk enormously.