The Washington herald., 1914-12-01
Some Reasons FOR Optimism.

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business encouragement at the present time i.
that for several years past our country has beer
in a state of under-consumption. We have beer
consuming much less than the normal quantity Of
pig iron, cotton cloth, tea, coffee, wheat, corn
potatoes and all of the necessares of life; while
our consumption of the uxuries of life has lately
been that of misers An exception might be made
to this statement perhaps in the largely increased
sale of automobiles But the automobile in its
more expensive forms, is no longer luxury, but
necessity. 1t has passed into the daily life of the
farmer and the artisan as well of the merchant
and the manufacturer. 1t is reasonable to expect
that the number of automobiles in the country will
increase each year hereafter that the population
of the country will itself increase.
But the substantial truth is that for pretty nearly
seven years now the country has been living on its
fat and is once more down to the bone. Long ago
the American people learned the great lesson that
the best way to economic was not to save in this
particular quarter or skmp in that, while spending
freely elsewhere, but to adopt general straight
forward policy of "going without" The essence of
economy is seIf-sacrifce the cutting down of all
expenditure-not some, but ALTO the smallest
possible limit This has been the way things have
been carried on in these United States ever since
the panic of 1907, and the country is ready to
travel another tack. 1t was ready at the time of
the outbreak of the Balkan war two years ago, but
then trouble arose in another and bigger storm
cloud.
Now in these days it seems to have come about
that the spirit OF recuperation and new life is so
strong in that the country has gathered itself up
for fresh business spurt In other words it really
seems in some directions if the in Europe
had become somewhat of an old story. Is it too
much to say that getting tired of it, or at
least are getting used to it? We have just made
successful test of the exact measure of interest
which European affairs have for in opening the
stock exchange in New York for trading in bonds
under certain restrictions. There was not abso-
lutely free opening of the exchange but there was
opening enough to let it be discovered just how far
Europe was disposed to sell our own securities in
our market regardless of the price they bring and
only caring for their conversion into real money
If Europe had manifested desire to dump the
market the sound and established bonds of Ameri-
can railway and industrial corporations, the only
thing to be done would be to close the stock ex-
change again and wait until the European hysteria
passes
But the test far has been satisfactory and there
is not the slightest to believe that it will
not be necessary to close the stock exchange again.
IT. since August l. a flood of European liquidation
had been impending here, this torrent would have
found some way of making its force effective. But
since the hour July 81, when the exchange
closed, the international financial world has be-
come calm. The panic that formerly in the
air has vanished Let it not be forgotten-and this
is third ground for optimism-that for nearly four
months now the ordinary channels of investment
in our country have been almost completely closed,
while the waters of investment have been accumu-
lating all the while 1t is the old story all over
again. and history seems repeat itself more often
in financial lines than it does in any other, of
people becoming rich unawares They grow care
less and luxury-loving, generation grows up that
has never known economy and has never seen any
thing but the spending of money; then everybody
finds all at once that he has spent his substance
and that he is travelling upon air and not upon solid
ground. There is a rush to realize paper profits,
followed by panic, runs upon banks, general
financial collapse and long continued business dis
asters, and then finally the country settles down
once more to getting money together again by the
process of saving. Usually in the
United States these intense economy periods have
not lasted longer than FIVE years. Seven years is
very long way for hard times to stretch But
seven years have passed for all that, and in their
rain should come blessings.
We see only permanent benefits from these hard
lines, and one of the strongest reasons for our
optimism is the change in the political temper OF
he country. In the last election the people in
almost every State were sick of hearing about
-eforms that they voted mo" with surprising de-
gree of unanimity upon every constitutional amend
nent that was proposed looking forward to an
upset in the existing order of things. Enough with
new things, let try the old for while" was the
;ry heard from Maine to California. So reformers,
adicals, and critics thrown into bottomless
A. 81. -boIn and
axes heart to begin its daily work anew.