The Richmond Virginian. (Richmond, Va.) 1910-1920, 1914-10-18
HARRIS STRIKES
OPTIMISTIC NOTE
BAYS PRESENT CALAMITY IS NOT
so GREAT AS WAS AT FIRST
FEARED.
Nor SO BAD AS 1893
INDUSTRIAL AND ECONOMIC CON-
0TTToys INCOMPARABLY BETTER
ICKy TIMES or NINErIEs.

, A ringing note OF optimism was
efruck by A. NJ. Harris, of Harris.
FORBES & Co, OF New York, during
Hhe session of the savings bank sec
Gon of the American Bankers Asso-
citation convention here last week.
The present calamity is not SO great
b calamity as most Of use were in.
clined to believe at FIRST, he said. and
declared that 1t is doubtful II the APP
parently obvious conclusions drawn
from present conditions are 100 per
cent true and IL some Of them are
correct to any considerable extent
The economic ana iudusir rial com
hitions OF the present time are not TO
be compared with those following the
panic OF 1893" he said
Mr. Harris said in part
A. present calamity Is always the
worst that has ever happened. Look
back through history and you VIII
find II SO II seems TO me that most
of US have paid too much attention.
"a tae obvious and apparent things
sn regard To the European war, We
al know that large amount of fixed
capital is being destroyed. and II is
natural ~ assume that this Inevitably
means generally highe- rates Of nv
tsrest for money. 1t IL at least doubt
ful. however, II the obvious conclu
sions which are being drawn are leo
per cent true. and in fact If some of
these conclusions are even correct
IL any considerable extent.
Few realize, for instance, what
wave of economy is sweeping over
this country. and the effect il may
have on the amount of new avaiia bile
investment capital, II is unquestion
ably true THAI never before Ia the
history of this country has there been
-
economy, which extends not only to
personal expenditures. but also 10 the
expenditures Of corporations and bus
3ness houses generally. Following
the panic Of 1898 there ensned gem
eral movement Of economy. This
economy. however. differed radically
from that which we are witnessing
At the present time The panic of
1sas vas followed by general indus
trial prostration and large percen-
tnge of unemployed In every line Of
industry. stu fhe economy of that
Period resulted within a few years IN
the greatest accumulation of invest
ment capital va have ever seen, and
q general upward movement Of the
prices of securities which continued
brinterruptedly for nearly ten years,
Accumulation of Capital.
The economic and Industrial eordi~
cons at the present time are not 10
De compared with those following
the panic of 1898, Aside from GER
tain industries and businesses which
have been especially affected. there
is employment. throughout the country.
THE wave of economy. therefore,
means much more enormous and
rapid accumulation Of capital than
Ever occurred before.
The economic losses resulting from
wars are usually, exaggerated. "a
shown by the industrial conditions
which exist when peace is restored.
], is estimated that the European war
Is costing as high as $50. ono a
day. This is. of course, huge sum.
But you must remember that Son aIr
dealing with huge figures all around.
dhe population of the nations directly
engaged In the European war ~ over
100000, 900. An average saving Of only
sixteen cents a day. for this number
OF persons would amount to over
kao, 100000 day. 1t should also be
remembered that the destruction OF
hattleships. forts. gunpowder, etc. Is
NOT a new loss OF capital. This was
paid for before the war started. and
the loss of capital occurred when these
articles Of war were constructed and
manufactured during times OF peace.
III fact. the great losses Of capital and
economic wastes occur during times
OF prosperity. whereas capital is accu
mulated during periods of depression.
Certainly never before in the history
o. this country has there been such "a
wave Of economy. With a population
OF 100. 100000 in this country, it would
require only relatively small reduc-
ton in wasteful expenditures for us
10 accumulate saving amounting to
hundreds Of millions OF dollars q
month.
In addition to the wave of economy
there Is the wonderful outburst of In
d.vidual enterprise that invariably fol-
lows a war Explain it in whatever
way you please. II is nevertheless a
fact that the greatest enterprise. the
greatest energy, the greatest ingenuity
Invariably Immediately follow a great
war Ii la this combination OF CON
ditions which probably explains the
rapidity with which people often re-
cover from the devastating effects of
= war Gentlemen, the world moves
by tides, not by waves--fierce as the
latter may seem as they strike one.
And according to the tides should ones
Judgment be made. / am sure that
no one familiar with the sound in
dpstrial and economic structure of
this country can believe that the high
4 tide OF this country's prosperity has
been reached.
In q discussion of savings bank
bonds one finds oneself touching upon,
II not the largest Phase of the invest
nlent business, certainly one OF the
Most important, one of the most ex-
acting and one to which investment
bankers are giving deeper study than
I perhaps many OF you realize. In full
fjlilng few other Investment require
ricnts is the element OF responsibility
81 constantly present. The restric-
n tons which our savings bank laws
& place around your choice of invest
1aents are often Of more seeming than
Nj lContinued on Fourth paGe.l