The Topeka state journal. [volume] (Topeka, Kansas) 1892-1980, 1914-12-01
BUSINESS SOUND, IF SLOW.


York banker, in his current weekly
financial review. and he continues:
only two things stand In he way OF
a sharp recovery-business depression
at home and the war abroad. A can
did estimate OF these two factors IL
necessary before an opinion can be
safely reached as to whether they have
been adequately discounted or not In
the first place, it il folly to ignore ex-
listing depression at home. Before the
war began reactionary symptoms were
widely prevalent. Declining bank
clearings, decreased railroad earnings.
industrial inactivity. increased failures,
and other indications, all told the story
Of business stagnation. Moreover. de-
preston was aggravated by the contin-
uous political battering CT big business.
as well as by the rising tide OF OPP
pressive legislation. Then came the
war with its unparalleled demoraliza-
ton of international trade. taxing the
abilities and resources of our financial
leaders almost to the breaking point
There is no Boosting in saying that the
American business community met this
crisis magnificently. No serious dis
aster resulted. Our financial machin-
cry faced the storm and came through
the stress. not only unscathed, but ac-
tually strengthened by the terrific
strain thus imposed. 1t is true the ten
sion was less severe here than in Lon
don, Berlin or Paris; but on the other
hand, practically no government help
was necessary here and no moratorium
was ever seriously considered. This
supreme test proved American finance
and American business to be wonder
fully strong in things fundamental.
Our banks are in excellent shape. Our
industries may be suffering from lack
OF orders. but 1T is satisfaction to
know that they are generally sound.
Our railroads, it is true, are laboring
under oppressive regulation and slack
traffic; nevertheless. their credit has
been marvellously well maintained.
considering the obstacles to be over
come. Our merchants have been
obliged to retrench: still they are oper-
ating on a conservative basis, and they
also are in a generally satisfactory con-
dition, notwithstanding dull business.
So much for domestic conditions.
Looking across the Atlantic we
find the war still a factor Of supreme
importance in American trade. 1t
must be remembered there are at
least 100000 of men under arms
in Europe and the cost of the war is
placed by conservative experts at
about $50.000.0o0 a day, or at the
rate Of about s15.0o0.o0 1000 per
year. These figures, be it remem-
bered, do not include incidental
losses to war, such as destruction of
property, arrangement of trade. ETC..
not to speak of the sickening loss Of
life and the misery and suffering of
millions which cannot be expressed
in money values. Nor does this es-
innate include the additional losses
caused by the regent outbreak Of the
war in Turkey and southeastern Eu-
rope. II goes without saying that it
Is utterly impossible for the world to
endure such wholesale, waste OF Lifts
and wealth, and at the same time
preserve it's prosperity. Distinct and
distant as we may be from European
activities, we cannot entirely escape
sharing European misfortune. For
years to come a large share of the
worlds savings must be absorbed in
paying the cost Of this titanic strug-
gle. Savings out of which comes all
new capital will be unavoidably re-
duced. In other words. there will be
less capital than usual for new enter
prises: and any marked revival of in
dustrial activity in any portion of the
world must mean an urgent demand
for money at good rates. Cash or
even credit may become temporarily
abundant, but genuine new capital,
such as Is derived only from savings,
will be relatively scarce for consider
able time to come, and will command
much better rates than before the
war;
These are the worst effects of the
war from the economic viewpoint.
and they give only the darker side of
the picture. Let us NOW look upon
the brighter side. After every period
of depression in public feeling, there
comes a psychical reaction when the
worst has been fairly passed. and
pessimism invariably gives way to a
new spirit OF hopefulness. The real
question Is, have we fairly passed and
discounted the worst? 1t would seem
as IL we really had. At home we have
been favored with all the important
advantages of a good harvest. The
department of agriculture tells us
that the 'oduction per acre OF all
our crops was "a per cent larger this
year than last year, and 2.3 per cent
above the ten year average. This fact
is of vital Importance in the agricul-
tural sections OF the United States
especially as our farming classes and
! those dependent upon them are still
the principal element in our national
prosperity. We find the keenest de-