The Birmingham age-herald., 1914-08-10
Renewed Impetus Given m- dustries Affected by the
 Low Tariff Rates
PLENTY OF MONEY
 FOR TRADE NEEDS
Building Up of the Merchant Marine One of the Most Important Re- suits of the War to the
 United States
By HOLLAND

By HOLLAND
 New York, August 9.--(Special)-It will be impossible to estimate at the end of the first year under the new tariff law what its effect on business conditions and our international trade has been.
 The Washington authorities were able to report gross figures of imports and ex- ports from October of last year to July of the present year. These figures seem to show that the immediate effect of the tariff has been greatly to increase im- ports and presumably to reduce exports Yet more than a superficial reading of these statistics is necessary in order to determine what the effect of the new law upon our international trade was. But for the last two months of the year since the new tariff law went into operation sudden and chaotic changes due to the conditions in Europe practically suspend the operation of the law. For it is ap- parent that importations must be greatly curtailed and much of the export trade will become paralyzed. In fact, so griev- ously may European conditions affect our international trade that it was said at the conference between bankers and Secretary McAdoo last week that imports might be so checked to cause serious deficit in customs revenue, so serious. possibly, as to entail the issuing of government bonds so that sufficient revenue can be secured
 There is harly one of the great indus trial corporations which was not brought up standing, so to speak. by the war con- ditions in Europe. Some of them have n in, !, their exports to make good the falling ' off in domestic business, while the great American industries have for nearly a year relied chiefly upon their exports and their contracts with foreign nations for the maintenance of business sufficient to give employment to its large number of skilled artisans.
 From this city there have departed since July for Europe various representatives of great industries for the purpose of clos ing negotiations which when completed would have been followed by large expor- tations. There was no sign of war when these men sailed. They have all been brought up somewhere, although the home offices do not know where they are. Pre- sumably this chaotic condition may for time affect trade with South America, es- pecially in those countries where the financing is carried on by means of branches of British or German banks. N The condition is somewhat similar in principle, at least, to that which prevailed in the beginning of the past century when the government placed an embargo upon exporta tions.
 It Cannot Continue
 Apparently the immediate effect of this condition will be a considerable increase in domestic industry and an enlargement of the domestic market For instance, it has been reported in business circles that since the new tariff law went into effect there have been such heavy importations- in the aggregate high up in the millions of dollars-of certain kinds of knitted goods that in several instances manufac- turers have closed their works and have become jobbers of these commodities. . Much the greater part of them came from Germany, and since early in the sIring manufacturers have wondered whether Germany would not completely absorb this trade. Now, in view of the fact that German manufacturing must stop and her exports cease, the probabili- ties are strong that the American indus try will be renewed. That is true of many of the mportations which by reason of their magnitude in the past six or eight months have seemed to threaten Ameri- can industries in like commodities. Now. these industries must probably be re- vived.
 In the Cotton Trade
 Some of those who are familiar with the cotton business say that great changes are inevitable, at least for a few months, and that they may become permanent We may not export as much raw cotton as six weeks ago it was thought probable we would do. It was commonly estimated that the money value of exports in raw cotton this year would be approxi- (. mately S55O, 100000. In fact, it was this trade which was relied upon, partially, at least, to offset the heavy importations of fa f.fr T1,,t iyt unlikely that if European conditions con- tinue for some months. American manu- facturers will absorb no small part of the crop of raw cotton, and that they will supply domestic markets which have been since January 1 supplied by the foreign manufacturers.
 Another Point of View
 There is another point of view which furnishes vista of considerably extended foreign markets for American manufac- tured commodities. For instance: It may ,be that South America will find that it is impossible to secure from Europe. even from England commodities of a kind which it has been accustomed to buy from those countries. Therefore, South Amer lea may be compelled to turn to the United States and if the nations to the south of us do make demands of that kind upon us, we are likely to have very great increase in our exports. American manufacturers may md themselves In position to control not only the domestic field, but some of the foreign fields as we'll While it is impossible to forecast with anything like accuracy the effect. upon our international trade of the Eu- ropean situation, still it is observed that the impression is very strong in this city that the immediate effect of this war will 1. be something which month ago was ut terly unlocked for. For it Is probable that there may come a heavy demand upon our manufacturers, one result of which will be to give renewed employment to labor The certainty that this coun- try is in position adequately to finance it's own needs and perfectly to protect it's money markets will all the more stimula te at least temporary activity in our manu- featuring establishments The only en- barrassment likely to be met with is the lack of adequate shipping facilities And 1t has been sometimes said. since the tur- moil began in Europe. that possibly 1t will serve to point the way by which our merchant marine can be restored to the condition which characterized it prior to 1850.