Bismarck daily tribune. [volume] (Bismarck, Dakota [N.D.]) 1881-1916, 1914-06-25
CLEVS' nARKEI Letter

New York, June 25.-Nothing has
yet occurred to break the prevailing
inertia which hangs over nearly all
departments Of business. Some hopes
of greater activity have been justly
based upon our magnificent wheat
crop and continued easy money. But
such anticipations seem to have been
unfortunately smothered by the Mexi-
can uncertainties and Congressional
discussions. All fair minded men will
concede that there is a world wide
slowing down Of business due to econ
omic causes. Germany Is still feel.
ing q moderate reaction from the act
ivity OF the last few years and the
Balkan war. France has been suffer.
ing from DISTURBED political condi.
tons. Great Britain's phenomenal
boom seems to have reached a climax
and a natural reaction is on, while the
whole continent Of Europe is feeling
the burden Of crushing military and
naval expenses. In other portions of
the world, such as China, Japan, In
dia and South America, the tenden.
cies are also more or less reactfonary.
Situation Varies.
The situation in the United States,
however, varies somewhat In import
ant particulars from other countries.
We have had no real boom in this
country since the panic of 1907, al
though a very fair recovery followed
that risis. While the rest of the com.
mercial world has been enjoying un.
usual activity We have been persist
entity slowing down for nearly two
years. We have had much liquida-
tion, and our principal industries have
been running on short time during a
considerable period. Economy has
been practiced In many directions,
and as 9 result this ountry is remark
ably free from the overriding which Is
at the bottom Of the recession now
taking place In other parts OF the
world. Briefly. this country is in an
excellent condition, commercially, in
dustrially and financially, and is will.
ing to take a fresh forward start at
the first opportunity: the situation
here with few exceptions being un-
usually sound. There is one great OBJ
stacle to such q recovery and that Is
lack Of confidence. Possibly FROM
even a strictly economic standpoint,
the time for q fresh start is not yet
ripe, since reajustment may not be
entirely complete, and there would
naturally be q disposition to await
greater certainty as to the forthcom-
ing harvests. Business men must
soon assume a more confident and
hopeful attitude. There is no longer
any uncertainty about the tariff, no
uncertainty about the banking bill,
and no uncertainty about the Panama
Canal problem. Moreover, there is
less uncertainty about trust legisla-
ton; and the Mexican problem,
though unsettled, is much less serious
than a month ago. All sides want
peace. The rate decision still hangs
over the market like a cloud, and it
would be unwise to expect too much
from the Interstate Commission.
Some concessions may be made to the
railroads, and X that august body
should manifest fRir and judicial
spirit towards RAILROADS. there:
WAAA NC AAttAS 0uS0AlWTE ~ 00lE Y4IOu0u
sion as to their depfaion. Very soon
this uncertainty viii also be q matter
Of history, and the security markets
will be comparatively free for a per-.
iod from many heretofore adverse in
fluences; especially should congress
adjourn on oh before the first of Aug
ust, Is Is intima+ed in some quarters.
Helpful Aaetorp.
The most helpfulEfactors In the
business situation ate the crop out
look, easy money, and the fact that
many lines of industry have been run
ming on short time while consumption
has been goin on 1t nearly the ordi-
nary volume. The steel trade can
not shut down 60 percent of its prod
uct indefinitely when rails, rolling
stock and other products are wearing
out under ordinary use. Our textile
mills cannot for ever keep their prod.
uct below the normal when consunp-
tion is going along w IA little II any
contraction. The whole country has
been undergoing a process of semi
starvation, and the exhaustion of sup.
plies will ere long compel renewed
activity. In the grain districts there
is already a feeling Of more or less
buoyancy owing to the magnificent
wheat crop now being harvested. IAe
corn crop promises we'll. for, while
there has been no important increase
In acreage and the crop Is a little
backward as usual the condition is
reported fine. Fruit crops are also
satisfactory. The one important crop
which at present does not promise
well is cotton, the condition Of which
is not entirely satisfactory. Further.
more, the foreign demand for this
staple Is likely to- abate because of
the depression in the British industry,
and the falling off in her enormous
export trade. Our large exports Of
gold, aggregating about $67, 200, 900
since the first of January, have J.
cited some concern on this side;
much more than is necessary, for the
outgo Is not much In excess of pre-
vious years, and considerable of this
gold is likely to return later In the
season when needed. Further but
not heavy shipments are anticipated
because Of our decreasing exports and
increasing imports, also because Of
our meeting many maturities abroad
IN the form of short term notes and
other obligations. frequently at this
season of the year the United States
Is a borrower abroad in the form Of
advance commercial bills. This feat
ure Is absent this wear. and the hulk