Evening journal., 1914-11-12
today S MOVES
IN THE WAR ZONE,
What THEY MEAN
BY ]. W. 7. MASON,
Former European Manager of the
United Press.

united Press.
NEW YORK, Nov. l2.-(lI a. m.l-
Premier .Asquith's statement, in the
House Of Commons, thai the war would
not last as long as had been originally
thought is o safe admiss on as far as
his personal views are concerned.
His own FIRST estimate last summer
was that the lighting might be pro-
longed for twenty years. That was an
exaggeration, due probably 60 the
stress OF the moment and to a desire
to impress upon Englishmcn the seri-
business of the crisis facing the Brit
ish empire
Twenty years is the longest forecast
anyone has made. Nobody now believes
that the world would be able to ex s.
through a war of such duration. Ex-
haustion would come long before that
limit was reached During the bomblrd-
ment of Liego and the German halt at
the German boundary, the twenty year
pessimism was succeeded by a belief
that possibly few weeks would see
the finish, or, if Germany were to be
crushed, "A few months, at most.
The idea Of crushing Germany to
conform with the spirit of last Au-
gust has now been abandoned as a
hopeless task, requiring more time
and effort than the results would re-
pay. Instead. there has develoned
the new objective OF overwhelming
German militarism. This, doubtless.
was the idea in Mr. Asouith's mind
when he said the war would be over
sooner than he had expected
German militarism. which Us based
on offensive strategy. NAV be con-
sidered defeated. If the German
armies arc forced back beyond their
own frontiers an II the allies give
proof Of an ability to check anv new
offensive that may be attempted by
the German general staff. To ac-
complish this result It probably will
not he necessary for both German
frontiers to be crossed. But If the
Russians are to he the first to in
wade German territory, they must
penetrate further than the allies in
the west, to exert a peaceful infiu
ence.
II is unlikely this will orcur. The
more probable outcome will be an
eventual retirement by the Germans
from France and Belgium to the
Rhine fortresses. This defensive line
is the strongest the world has ever
seen. On Of the leading commanders
among the allies has estimated It
would require five years for an army
to get TO Berlin from the Rhine.
Should the Germans eventually be
forced back 10 the Rhine. the allies
are not likely to consider spending
FIVE years in an effort to capture Ber-
lin. So. after a trial of strength
along the Rhine. a stalemate will re-
suit, if It is demonstrated that the
German army cannot resume the Of
fensive.
At this point the allies believe the
| economic pressure viii begin 10 eV-
ert an Irresistible influence in Ger
manv and militar'sm viii be forced to
, compromise i'm order TO relieve the
industrial situation. There Will he
no sudden collanse Of German mill
tary strength. but there will he an
ever-increasing economic influence
, for peace. once " IS clearly shown
! that German militarism has lost its
T., offensive power.
When this situation will occur Is
! the prime unknown factor. Germany
has run through three months of Of
fensive strategy. and is now on the
defensive in the east and west. Per-
haps If for the next three months
the allies can press in turn their own
offensive, the rising sun of peace may
. haoin to apDpar above the horizon.