davidaulloa/AmericanStories huggingface dataset:
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-02-15

traders and spectators as are the hrst
mentioned. although the public does not
recognize the difference. The operations
OF this second group of men are based
wholly on fundamental conditions and
long swings.
When commodities are cheap and they
consider that fundamental conditions are
becoming sounder each week they begin
and continue to accumulate so long as
fundamental conditions continue to I'M
prove. This period usually lasts for about
eighteen months. although they may do
so per cent of their buying during the
frst few months Of the period, when the
trade papers, the banks and the corpora
ton officials all seem pessimistic and the
commission men are selling
At the end OF this period and upon the
Jrst sign of real prosperity these men be-
gin to sell, although many of them con-
tinue to talk enthusiastically so that the
public will buy. In other words. the dis
tributing process commences, lasting for
one or more years. during which time
the leaders are all talking enthusiastically,
the banks are loaning money at low rates
ana the corporations are talking higher
prices. Nevertheless. fundamental condi-
tions are no longer improving. and these
men who study fundamental. rather than
surface. conditions are rapidly selling all
OF their lines In fact. even the money
received from the sale of these lines is
loaned to the trade to enable the retailer
to buy goods more easily
A. the End .G swIns.
Then. when the trade has absorbed all
OF the supplies possible and surface CON
ditons ar. so bright that the ord nary
merchant is anticipating no trouble
although fundamental conditions are of
course Observation-Disclosures word is passed
around to pull the plus" Commodities
hau hpgip a. tumble aud almost no
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-02-15
BABS0N TELLS
WHEN TO BUY
Makes Scientific Analysis for
1.-THE Sun" Of Market
Influences. H.
MUST STUDY CYCLES.
Day to Day Trader. He Says.
Is Doomed to
Failure.
OFFERS ACCURATE METHOD
Area Chart. He Asserts, Should
Foretell Long Swings Of
Commodity Prices.
OFFERS ACCURATE METHOD

Som. time ago In an Interview given
n THE NEW YORK SuN I explained the
Fundamental law underlying the major
fluctuations in stocks and bonds. Readers
Will remember black plot Of hills and
valleys recording the changes in general
business conditions. together with chart
~ stock and bond fluctuations and certs n
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-02-15

ing fundamental conditions. enter the
market about once in every one or more
years Ia buy or sell according 70 what
these fundamental conditions indicate.
After purchasing different lines they hold
them for wear or 40. selling out when
the public begins to buy and loaulnG
money to the pubic for wear or more
thereafter 10 maze said purchasing easier
When they have suId al. OF their preVio
holdings and also are heavily short OF the
market while banks. merchants and the
public are uNereAteuded and Fundamental
conditions are becoming unSouud they
suddenly change their attitude begin 10
talk p"ss.m.sticsllS and again do all they
can to depress prices. =. above suggested.
preparatOty TO another period OF sccu-
mutation
A. to what the market does from day
Ia day ar from month 10 month these
, men do not care. The, do not trade ~
~ the few biz operators and specuIators.
"ut rather pia, simply for the long
swings. Moreover. although I strongly
oppose many Of the methods that some
of these men employ. yet I believe that
the uitimate result Of their studies IL
good for the rountry. ny trnding to
steady conditions ~ well ~ being profit
able To themselves.
or course this means combining much
IF ones buying to certain periods and
arrSing the goods for while by so
hoius, however, one may eventually ac-
rumulate great fortune without any
sr-s' rish, especially If ne will confne
MS purchases to high grade standard
commodities. Nearly all OF the great
honest fortunes of this country have been
made by a study of Fundamental coudi
lions, hy Independent work along the
lines ahoN. mentioned Moreover / Is
only by studying fundamental conditions
a1f IL,
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-02-15
Four successive steps.

Hence IN preparing any charts for use
In ones business there are four successive
steps viz. % the combining Of many diff
ferent factors as possible into one curve
go the use Of areas instead OF lines IN
order to consider the effect Of both price
and time: 90 the correcting % the result
In accordance with the growth OF the couu-
try and 60 the anticipating OF future
conditions In accordance with the theory of
action and reaction
When studying such charts the business
man need only remember that when al
area develops ahuormally above the
medal line. a corresponding area below
the line should under normal conditions,
follow. such an area below would mea II
a depression preceded by more or less
panicky conditions and followed ny de-
cl!ning commodity prices and low money
rates ON the other hand. after such an
area has developed below the media line
one may, according To this theory, expect
an area above to follow. which would
be an area OF prosperity preceded by
rising commodity prices and followed hN q
period OF tight money
In other words a heavy volume OF bust.
ness with high money rates and declining
commodity prices should como at the end
II prosperity area AZ the curve IL cross
ing the medal line while 4 Ugh, volume
Of business. low money rates and rising
commodity prices should com. ~ the end
nf = depression area. az the curve ls
crossing IN. media line on is upward
swing
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-02-15

Is thoroughly pesslmistic. believing that
prices OF AL commodities are soing lower
Hence. as ! was pessinistic year ago
when all my friends were very optimistic
| am nov feelns much better
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-02-15

line all the contributing factors
Measure of Present Conditions.
When crops are good and politics
coHStrtD i've, the medal line automati-
Cillv slopes upward enough TO common
sat" FOR this additional growth 10 which
business t. entitled hut when crops are
poor. politics uncertain. or the country
has met with some great disaster. the
medal line slopes automatically down
ward.
Therefore II viii he seen that III.
area charts diner from other charts IL,
two ways !. BY being determined from
the two factors pf time and tens.tv
which when multiplied form an area
, :, by the fact that the area itself H.
being continually corrected by the medal
| line the slope Of which varies with tn.
changes ia crops politics and other fac
tors. Thus these area compost. Plots
give a practical measure of present con-
ditions, constantly adjusted To basic,
changes ana yet capable of compa rison
with previous periods.
Not only do the areas formed as
above described, Offer the best existing
measure OF presen, conditions. but by
! enabling one Ia compare present with
normal conditions. | believe the business
man Is able also 10 anticipate future
changes. assuming the applicability OF
the law of action and reaction.
Law of Actio. and o....,.
'uLS Pu" Si"u'u iIahhiN he
T,''eu tnat 'ne ADOPTION OF me theory
~ n''o' an" ,a't'"h ~ "PpIicahIe 10
n,i'a "nu'H an assumption IN
,,.,',', ',a,, u"', ''",' an" ''s'ar'h 'a,
roac,ior !. a,,,i,,,I VI net."l ana
mas.
During s,r Is,,c xou.,,,,s ,,,i,. 40.
Ina .nnlIoa mi. la, Of a,,,o,' , Nv
nctin, outv IA ,r.Yba,,,s cLa,,t.,ry M
,ronomy and other srie,c.s In, i,,in,
his later ufe IA. en,ered into nv. st,d,
81 theology and ccouomic. II an. ,rii,
turn to page ass Of sir Isaac N.vton's
"Phiiosophica, Discoveries. written nv
.esn u'ho, u,as I'm tho n,iui N, .,i 49,,
philosopher. From the authors studies
In England he ~ absolutely convinced
'hat sir isaac Newton thought that the
same law OF ACTON ana reaction could
u" applied 10 the atts OF man en- masse
as 10 me'haill's chemistry astronomy
ana III iact 70 every oth"f SCIENCE
hrin'S neheNe 'hat ms Ia" is ap'
pii'ao'' 10 business hs wen as 10 me
,hah,'s an" "'ne' rciehces anu IN 'his
pe'c. ira" Wv oo"'"S so'''"s'o's '"'
H'o'S .','1" -,
w., '"'s 'on, u''uer 'e, 'a', tol'
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-02-15

menis should Toe self-evident. The hrs,
one IA this There ~ no sure way Of
| making money in day 10 day SPECULATION.
either in commodlti.s OF securities such
as is INDUCED in by the ordinary man
| Ninetv-five per cent. OF srx1 traders come
| to grief. losing not only = e!l money but
| also their health. reputation and-what
| is worst Of all--their courage and self
| respect. The gam. j. absolutely rugged
| againS' them as The powers that be- own
all the paraphernalia and apparatus and
are subject to no laws OF regulations A.
| Monte Carlo one plays simply agains,
| luck ana with the exception of about . !.
| p,r cent In favor of the bank the player
| has an equal chance with the bank to win.
which Is not true when he j. playing
| AGAINST the big men Of New YORK or chi
caso. No, only are the commissions
| .ainst the spcculator--so that II he
, should win oue-nalf Of the tim. he would
stu be Out his commission aDUu-'
everything Ia rugged" to beat him.
DONE Follow the Crowd.
The average merchan, is urged to on!
when he should sell and TO sell when he
should buy, The mercantile banks lower
I their money rates and make IL easy for
people 10 purchase when coumodit!e.
| really should be sold, and conversely they
/ call loans and unIntentioudlly de- all that
! Is possible to prevent the public from pur-
chasing when commodities are low. Cor
porstions threaten higher prices and pub
| lish optimistic reports. pretending that
goods are going higher when they are az
ready too high and they threaten loWer
prices and talk pessimistically when the
commodities are really an attractive and
SAT. purchase, and IL IL all the way
down the line. Banks corporations. lead
Ing men and even many OF the brokers
/ themselves are all combined to get the re
taller In wrong. Consequently only about
! : per cent. Of the retail stores are said
ever TO succeed in beating the game. Even
l a larger percentage OF those who play AT
Monte Carlo beat the game there. OF
course II one knew that certain commits
sion merchants invariably give the wrong
advice one could. IL he had EXTRAORDINARY
self-control and independence. beat the
game by always doing exactly the oppo-
site OF what they generally advise, bu,
this also In an impossibility, as these in
terests sometimes advise correctly for Tie
| very purpose OF still further bewlldering
! the poor retailer and the public general,
/ Therefore the first point that wish 10
impress upon the young business mdr Is
that only about per cent. Of the retail
stores ever succeed in retiring with any
PROFIT. The great majority Of tins small
army actually lose money
One Certain Method.
The second statement that wish To
emphasize is az follows: Although the
, ordinary merchant finds II almost in,pos-
sibe to make biz money alone the lines
| ordinarily practlsed, Vet there is one
method by which It may he done re.
Ter to the method Of taking adyantase OF
the long swings, extending over periods OF
| from one to four years which is osslble
ny systematic study OF fundamental con-
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-02-15

binary line curves heretofore. but the
area formed by this curve and the me-
dial line affords an opportunity To read
intellgently into both the curve and the
line all the contributing factors
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-02-15
Ne . Real Nerchant.

There II, however. another and much
'arSer circl" of men who represent big
business IN the popular mind and are
continually making ana retaining great
fortunes. These men. however are not
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-02-15

conclusions tying the Two together. since
that time have been making similar
studies relative to commodities. and the
following conclusions showing when NET
chants should stock up and when They
should reduce merchandise viii he found
OF interest
For convenience viii repeat t~o or
three paragraphs from this previous
article
There are three distinct groups of
price movements which every Young bu~i-
ness man should understand In the first
place, t1cIo are thu daily fluctuations OF
which the average broker or coluInss on
mer, nant endeaNoiS 10 take advantage
These fluctuations may be compared TO
the ripplcs on the waters of bay. They
cannot or furCtold ~ any way and they
bear no relation To- IN. intrinsic vslu. Of
the prosperity. properties nor tu condi-
tons In general! Any man who en-
deayors 10 make pront nom these
movements is, In my opinion, simply a
gambler.
"Secondly, there are the broader breaks
and rallies exteiiflng over few weeks
and caused BY the markets becoming
temporarily overbough, or oversold These
broader movements may he compared to
the waves caused by IN. winds blowing
over the waters OF Il bay. How the winds
are to blow no one can tell but, knowing
how they are blowing. IL ~ sometimes
possible to forecast whether the waters
will be rough or smooth later in the
day.
III professional traders would let the
market alone the tide would slowly and
regularly advsuc" OF iec-l- without
these waves changing in accoI lance vita
fundamental conditions, as they ether
improve or become worse. but OWING 20
their impotence aud righteousness these
operators are continually either pushing
the natural movement TOO far or else
TetaTding H."
OversOid aud Os~rbOuwht.
II the tendency OF market is thought
TO he downward all these opet ators be
come bearish and sell short unlii the
market becomes 'oIersoid and i lower
than conditions warrant A. soon az 4
occurs to the operators that they have
done this they all change their position
and begin 10 buy. continuing until the
market becomes "overbougnt," or higher
than conditions warrant.
market Therefore, "a very seldom
at its logical point based on fundamental
conditions, but il almost always arJVe
or below this point based upon lhese
technical conditions. Now as TO what
these operators are TO do II Is ippossi BILE
for any one---even themselves to foretell ::
hut from a paiustal<lnP aud systematic
study of quotations ii H. often possi BILE
TO tell what Ties. operators are trying
To do, OF course | DO no, advise any one
TO study the markets technical condition
for the purpose Of trading in these move
ments, hut It Is wise for the Young bust
ness man to seek loans and ofYsr securities
for sac only during tho upward movement
~ one Of these short swings
East Oregonian : E.O. (Pendleton, OR) 1888-current, 1914-01-27
WOMEN GO HUNGRY TO
FILE THEIR PETITIONS

CHICAGO, Jan. 27.-Minus their
breakfast, and by their own admis-
sion just $50 minutes from med" two
Chicago women, both unmarried. were
at the city hall before daylight to file
as candidates for the city council In
the spring primaries They were the
first Chicago women to take advan-
tage of the privilege granted by the
new Illinois suffrage law.
Miss Marion Drake. progressive. ap-
peared at $3.50 a. m. and jumped in
to the race to unseat "Bathhouse
John" Coughlin of First ward fame
X. Brunton, a progressive party man
took sixth position in line that rap.
idly grew in length to file Miss
brakes petition. At 6:45 a. m. bie
Limousine drew up. Six women fairly
leaped from the cushions. They bore
the petition of Miss Sarah Hopkins
who is seeking the democratic nomi.
nation for alderman Of the second
ward
Representatives of the progressive
party were first in line with petitions
They stationed man at the doors OF
the city clerks office at a. m. Sun
day night.
East Oregonian : E.O. (Pendleton, OR) 1888-current, 1914-01-27

bring about the change as one Of the
means of celebrating the Dante GEN.
tennary in 1921. The plans for the
ecelebration include the bringing to-
gether of all the statuary and pic
lures In the world that have been in
spired by Dante's poetry. The plans
however, are being vigorously oppos-
ed by the Italian Futurists who want
the city modernized instead Of rebuilt
as il was in the days Of Dante.
East Oregonian : E.O. (Pendleton, OR) 1888-current, 1914-01-27
JUDGE Bennett CANDIDATE
FOR DEMOCRATIC HONORS

Judge A S. Bennett of The Dalles
has formally announced himself as a
candidate for the democratic nomina-
ton for governor and states that he
enters the race because of the publi-
cation in the oregon Journal Of a let
ter in which he was criticised for the
attack he made upon Governor West
at the time the latter was running
for the nomination against Jefferson
Myers four years ago.
With the candidacy or Judge Ben
nett there are now four avowed can
didates for the democratic nomination
for governor. They are DR.. C. j
Smith, John Manning, r. A. Miller and
Judge Bennett
Republican aspirants now openly il
the field are A. NJ. Crawford, Judge G
Il. Dimick. Gus C. Moser, w. A. Car
ter, while there are several Others
known to be contemplating the race
East Oregonian : E.O. (Pendleton, OR) 1888-current, 1914-01-27
Man pcranged. WRECKS Kitchen.

Becoming deranged while at his
home. 2a1 West Court, Guy Connerly.
well known chauffeur, at an early
hour this morning escaped from his
wife, left the house, broke into the
kitchen of the lodging house on the
corner of West Court and Garden.
conducted by Mrs. o. n. Froome, and
proceeded to destroy everything that
was of breakable nature. Aroused
from their slumbers by the crashing
Of dishes. inmates of the house hur-
riedly summoned the police. When
Patrolman AL Moody arrived Conner
ly had possession Of the room and
was armed with a piece of st I'VE pipe
He was taken to the police station
where ne was kept until 10 o'clock
this morning when he was removed to
the st. Anthony hospital According
to his physician, he is normal again
today and remembers nothing of the
incident which occurred early this
morning.
East Oregonian : E.O. (Pendleton, OR) 1888-current, 1914-01-27
nagtimc Tournament CLOSES.

H. a. Anderson and F. J. McMonies
comprised the team which won the
high score trophy in the ragtime
bowling tournament which was closed
Sunday night at the Pastime parlors.
Their best total score was All and
their second best score. 46S. got them
the third money, too. Second money
was taken by Art Graybeal and vir-
gil Bolts, their score being 470. Nc
Monies and Per Lee were close
fourths with 466. The best individual
record was made by Anderson who
bowled eight games in the tournament
for an average of 22S. He made sew.
enteed consecutive strikes.
East Oregonian : E.O. (Pendleton, OR) 1888-current, 1914-01-27
BEAR ESCAPES FROM
CAGE AND Is KILLED

OAKLAND Cal, Jan. 2I.-After
wandering for two days and nights
through Alameda and Oakland and
swimming the Oakland Estuary on
her way back to the woods, Lizzie. -
monster brown California bear which
escaped from her cage in Alameda was
shot dead by policeman.
Lizzie met her tragic end after a
posse of bluecoats had tried for more
than two hours to capture her with
ropes. A peacefur citizen returning
home at 2:30 o'clock found Lizzie
seated placidly on his front doorstep
East Oregonian : E.O. (Pendleton, OR) 1888-current, 1914-01-27
ALL VISITORS TO BE LISTED.

VANCOUVER, Wash. Jan. 27.-
The City Clerk, Charles A. Hasson.
has been instructed by the secretary
of state to send typewriter rosters of
all visitors in the corporate limits of
Vancouver, with their postoffice ad-
dresses and where they live. This Is
so that the secretary will have the
names of all visitors in his office Ia
check up the petition to be filed. ask
ing for an election of statewide pro-
hibition.
There were 3770 voters in the city
at the last general election.
East Oregonian : E.O. (Pendleton, OR) 1888-current, 1914-01-27
Damage case Goes to Jury.

The damage suit in which Mrs.
Mary b. Ireland seeks to secure s6,-
900 from the City of Athena and j.
Gohlson for an alleged injury to her
against an alleged offset in the side
walk and fell, went to the jury this
afternoon. The attorneys completed
their arguments just before recess
was taken for noon and at 1880 this
afternoon Judge Cleeton, who is sit.
ting for Judge Phelps, gave his in
structiOnS
East Oregonian : E.O. (Pendleton, OR) 1888-current, 1914-01-27
Realty Transfers.

Realty Transfers.
Clio Beta Pesciallo and Angelina
Pasciallo, his wife, to S. Eaton fol
$4,000, ASS acres in sec. 35 twp. 6
y. r. 35; j E. Leonard and Carl c.
Leonard, husband and wife, to Aller
f. West. lots 26 and 27, block Z
Wrights addition to Milton excepting
the south fifteen feet of lot 26
George NJ. Lewis and wife to w. w
Edmisten, west half of lots 13 and IA
block lis. Reservation addition tC
Pendleton; Mary C. Donaldson t
John G.. Ragley, .93 Of an acre in sec
4 twp. 2, y. r. 2S.
East Oregonian : E.O. (Pendleton, OR) 1888-current, 1914-01-27
Two Hospital patients Die.

Two of the patients at the eastern
Oregon state hospital have passed
away during the past two days. One
was w. c. Boyd, aged SO. and the
other, r. f. Cupples. aged 60. The
former was a native Of Iowa and had
been committed to the hospital from
Baker county November IL. 1910
Death was caused by d cerebro-spinal
complaint. His body will be shipped
to Baker relatives. Mr.. Crupples, who
was a single man, died Of stomach
trouble. He was committed about q
year ago. The body will be shipped
to relatives in Washington. Both
bodies are now at the Folsom par.
lors.
East Oregonian : E.O. (Pendleton, OR) 1888-current, 1914-01-27
CHILDREN GET POISON
INSTEAD OF MEDICINE

UTICA, n. Y, Jan. 27.-Franklin
Richardson. aged 4. the third Of the
children in the Utica orphan asylum
who on Saturday was given poison in
mistake for laxative. died. 1t is
believed the three other children poi
soned will recover.
Coroner Stephen A. Hahady con.
Quoted an inquest.
Catherine Manley, the nurse who
admitted giving the poison, testified
that another nurse. Edna Mckay
gave her the bottle.
East Oregonian : E.O. (Pendleton, OR) 1888-current, 1914-01-27

81 ow in that section but II has mostly
melted and gone into the ground.
Have Built Grain FIevator-A
meeting of the Davenport. Wash. To-
cal of the Farmers Union was held
last Tuesday to celebrate the opening
of the SEQ 600 concrete grain elevator
that has been erected by the union.
Two hundred were present and bas-
ket dinner was served.
Made Cattle Sale-A report from
Baker states that p. ]. Brown has
made a shipment of cattle to Portland
OF the stock shipped 81 head were
purchased of John Tory of Pleasan,
Valley at a price of and half cents
To Meet mt Helix-A big meeting
OF the Farmers Union local at Helix /.
scheduled for February Z. Assessor
C. l.. Strain has been invited to speal
at the meeting.
kiilet. 3.5 Rabbits-A rabbit lr!,,
was held Saturday near Connell
Wash and total of 375 rabbits wer'
killed.
East Oregonian : E.O. (Pendleton, OR) 1888-current, 1914-01-27
GOETRAlS WILL Be NAMED
PANAMA HEAD IN few DAYS

WASHINGTON, Jan. 27.-Secretary
of War Garrison declared the nomi-
nation of Goethals to be the civil gov
announced in few days. The presi-
dent and members of the cabinet ap-
proved the plan for civil govern
ment in the zone today. The execu-
tive order is being prepared. The
civil government is expected to be-
come effective on April first.
East Oregonian : E.O. (Pendleton, OR) 1888-current, 1914-01-27
SUIT AGAINST GOVERNOR
WEST DISMISSED BY COURT

SALEM. Ore, Jan. 27.-Because
Attorney General Crawford failed to
make showing that the state was
damaged. Circuit Court Judge Kelly
dismissed the suit brought by Craw-
ford to recover approximately &c.
900 from Governor West. Secretary
of State Olcott and State Treasurer
Kay, alleged to have been spent il
legally from the state penitentiary re.
volving fund.