The Ely miner., 1914-12-18

has harvested five billion dollar
crop and there is high-price mar
ket for all our surplus food stuffs;
already our grain is pouring across
the Atlantic. The millions of men
who are fighting are not working,
and yet these hordes of soldiers
must be clothed and equipped as
well as fed. Foreign orders have
started factory operation which at
once tends to relieve the stagnation
in the steam-coal trade, the steel
situation has turned from serious
depression to rapid improvement,
and the whole mineral industry
may soon expect to share in this
general business improvement.
Today the financial horizon is
so nearly cloudless that the pro-
phets of bad weather have little up
on which to base their predictions.
The new federal banking system
makes the money reserves mobile
as never before. and extension of
credit is now possible, without the
veto power remaining in the hands
of small group of big men. Still
another reason for belief in business
betterment is the recognition, now
becoming widespread, of the
general interdependence of big
business and the general public.
On the one side. the people are
realizing that they are and have
been in reality the silent partner in
big business, and now that there
has come the promise of some regu-
lation that will in large part pre-
vent monopolistic Capitalization,
the people are interested in getting
their share of returns that can come
only with operation at a profit.
on the other hand, the managers
of the large corporations, the
trustees of the investing public,
are beginning to see that certain
financial security goes with public
confidence, and that the attitude to
the public so tersely expressed 80
years ago by pioneer i'll railroad
financing does not pay dividends
doday.
OF course optimism is apt to
go to extremes. Already we are
hearing such expressions as trade
BOOM" or opportunity unparal-
leled in history" and avalanche
of prosperity" and even hardhead-
ed business men are quoted as
thus characterizing the present
situation. All this kind of talk
indicates a period of overstimula
tion may threaten us, condition
that is somewhat symtomatic of the
American temperament. The four
months record, however. can be
summarized thus: While Euro
pean countries have been mobiliz
ing their armies and calling to the
field of battle their reserves of
soldiers, America has modified its
credit and begun to send forward
to the market place its vast re-
serves of food-stuffs and mineral
products.
Secretary Red6eld recognizes
three periods of business condition
as naturally following the declara-
tion of war on August l last-those
of shock, stimulation and read
justment. These three must be
expected to affect in the same
order all branches of American
business, though the transition
from one period to the next may
not be simultaneous in all
branches. Thus for several weeks
after war was declared, the ex-
portation of wheat felt the shock
and thousands of carloads accumu-
lated at Eastern ports. With cot
ton the period of shock has been
longer, but stimulation of export
has now begun. With copper the
resumption of sales to Europe
seems slow in coming, but come it
must, for in the modern world,
whether at war or at peace, the
red metal is necessary of life.
AS we look toward the south
we find that our commerce with
South America for the last four
years has been one-sided to the
extent of an unfavorable annual
trade balance averaging more than
80 millions of dollars. The fact
that the balance of trade is against
the United States in two of the