The Washington herald., 1914-08-30

I
which must always be borne In mind, In
discussing a question of this kind Ir
| the first place, we must always assume
unless we have positive reason to the
contrary, that war is an injury rather
than a benefit even to neutral countries
War makes for scarcity rather thar
abundance. and scarcity Is bad for the
world at large, though IL may benefit a
few. Goods must. in the end, be paid
for with goods, though they may, tenn
porarily, be paid for In money. II the
warning countries have fewer goods tc
give in exchange for what they buy, theiI
real means OF purchase is to that ex-
tent reduced.
The increased purchases by means OF
money, with few goods wherewith to
make the real payments, merely tends 70
cheaper money, or. which means the
same thing, raise the price Of goods in
terms OF money. II all industries are
affected alike, We have merely a regime
Of high prices, with no benefit to any
one. except. perhaps, the debtor class.
who, IL they are in a position to pay off
their debts, may do SO with cheaper
money. II some industries are more af-
fected than others, SO that the price of
some goods rise more than others, some
gain while others lose as the result.
In a general way. the trading class
rather than the producing class profits by
this situation. Experience has amply
shown that the laboring class is the
last to profit by IT.
As an illustration Of the way in which
special interests may flourish as the
result Of an abnormal scarcity OF spe-
cial product, We have the case Of the
Boer war and its effect on the American
horse and mule market. Every war is
very destructive OF horse flesh, and that
war was exceptionally so. English buy
ers drained this country Of her surplus
stock and greatly increased the price.
While this was a great advantage to
those farmers who were producing horses
and mules to SELL II was a disadvantage
to those-and they include most Southern
farmers-who had to buy them.
Depends on Ratio of Production.
As to American agriculture, the Euro
pean war will be of no benefit unless it
should make agricultural products much
scarcer than other products. II all the
things which the farmers have to buy
rise in price on the average as much as
all the things they have TO sell. there
will be no gain TO them as a class. This
will depend. first. upon the effect OF the
war upon agricultural production as
compared with production in other fields.
upon the consumption OF agricultural
products as compared with the con-
sumption OF other things.
AS to agricultural production in
Europe, there is no convincing reason
to expect that the present war will ma
terially reduce agricultural production.
and il is prtty certain that II will not
reduce agricultural production more than
other lines. Our expectation that this
war will result in wholesale destruction
Of crops is based upon memories and his
tories Of earlier wars when invading
army's overran hostile countries, burn
ing and pillaging as they went During
the latter part OF our own Civil War.
the South was thus overrun.. But modern
warfare is not conducted in that way.
There is an increasing regard for the
property and lives of non-combatants.
even when there Is a general invasion Of
one country by the army's Of another.
Again. II is probable that the fight
ing in this present war will be confined
pretty closely to national frontiers, and
thus be confined TO a relatively narrow
zone. and that invading armies will not
sweep across any considerable scope of
country. Therefore, We need not expect
any wholesale destruction of crops as the
result Of this war. Again, men TO fill the
from agricultural production in greater
proportions than any other Industries;
moreover, a great deal OF farm work
on the continent OF Europe. especially in
Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Rus
STA Is done by women. In time Of war,
more can easily be done by women, be-
cause they are accustomed to II. II will
not require a violent change of habit
or Of standard of living. Finally, much
OF the farm work which We in this coun-
try do by machinery is there done by
hand. Prof. Warren estimates that half
Of the wheat crop OF the world is still
cause hand labor is abundant and cheap
Should It become scarce and dear, as a
result of this war. machinery can be in
troduced as II was in the northern half
Of this country during the civil war.
Increased Use of Machinery.
How many Of US realize how rapidly
farm. machinery spread during that per-
iod. The reaper. mower, threshing ma
chine, corn planter, cultivator, and other
such Implements, were in use before 1850.
but their use increased more rapidly dur
ing the next fiye years than during the
whole preceding period. In the State of
Indiana, to take SINCE example, the
wheat crop increased from 1900. coo BUSH
els in 1883, to 20OO0.0OO bushels in 1863,
though one in ten Of her entire male pop
ulation was lin the army at the latter
date. In fact, agricultural production over
the entire north increased every year of
the war. During the recent Balkan war.
agricultural production. even In those
countries, was not much affected.
As to the consumption of agricultural
products, there are reasons to expect an
increaaA in fha Countries which ara NJ
war but it Is easy to exaggerate this
increase. There are no more consumers
in time Of war than In time of peace;
but in so far as men and horses are
taken from the farms and put into the
army, less Is consumed on the farms and
more is sent away from the farms There
Is, therefore, an increased trade in agri-
cultural products rather than an in
creased consumption. However, these
products are more wastefully consumed
In time OF war. The increased trade in
Itself, increases the number OF traders
who have to be supported. But, more
specifically, shoes, clothing and tents are
rapidly worn out in time of war Much
Of these, with other supplies, are de-
stroyed in battle and to avoid capture by
enemies. The wastefulness of the con-
SUMPTION Of military supplies results,
therefore. In somewhat Increased con-
sumption OF agricultural products.
As to the nonhghting part Of the pop
ulation, they cannot reduce materially
their. consumption of the basic neces-
saries Of life. In so far as they are
forced 70 retrench in their consumption,
IN order TO pay the costs IN the way
Of taxation and otherwise, OF the war.
they viii reduce thar consumption Of!
p