davidaulloa/AmericanStories huggingface dataset:
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04

During the Manchurlan campaign, nine
and ten years ago, the Japanese were
put to no end of trouble and expense
in connection with the maintenance and
custody OF the great numbers Of Rus
sian prisoners-near 100, 900 OF them
for whom their commissarlat and trans
port arrangements were not prepared.
And although the present war of ma
lions has only been in progress eight
weeks, and may therefore he regarded
as still in It's initial stages. the hordes
OF prisoners made by the various bell
llgerent Powers are so huge that the
problem of their disposal has become
more difficult of solution than ever
, After the Russo-Japanese conflict
and more particularly at the Peace Con-
gress Of The Hague in 1907, there was
some talk Of dealing with the issue by
means of an international arrangement,
whereby prisoners of war would be
handed back to their own Government
to be detained en- masse under such
supervision that II would be impossible
for them to rejoln the army in the field
without the whole world becoming cog
infant of the fact. But the present in
ternational connagration. which. accord
ing to the now historical remark OF the
Chancellor OF the German Empire, was
brought about by Great Britain for the
sake OF "a mere scrap of paper" has
furnished the most striking and lasting
evidence OF the fact that some of the
belligerent Powers at any rate, attach
no value whatsoever 20 treaty obiga-
lions or to the sacred character OF IN
ternational pledges, and consequently II
prisoners Of war were restored TO their
Government in return for n promise
that they would not be allowed TO fight
again, there could he no assurance that
| this agreement. instead OF being looked
upon az n matter Of honor, would not
in its turn be treated az "a mere SCRAP
OF paper"
II is only since 1907 that any sort Of
international understanding has existed
with regard TO the treatment Of pris'
oners Of war. Many efforts had beer
previously made to come to some kind
of agreement about the matter. Thus
an international congress was assem-
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04
p, 4 Il
~ -
A = &

II all nations had the srne popu'a-
ton and area, while each person rem
dered the same service, II would be
agreed that all nations under such con-
ditions would have equal strength II
the excess wealth or intelligence OF one
nation enabled 1t 10 render better ser
vice. this should be recognized; but Y
not. Il should not b. recognized.
Wealth, Intelligence, or even culture Is
of real value only as It Increases the
efficiency OF a people, and hence should
be held strictly 10 such test.
II all nations had the same area and
natural advantages. but differed as to
the population and -he efficiency OF the
people. It would he found that the
strength OF the respective nations va
ried approximately as the product or
population and efficiency. In other
words national power, like mechanical
power, when plotted. appears as an
area formed by the product Of two
forces. In Babson composite plot
these two forces are time and Intensity;
but when, considering the strength of
an army. they are the number OF men
and the average efficiency man.
Often, however. two nations have
been at war when their strength, ms de-
| tpTnllntu ny lllfll PpPhi"A''' "'' N'''
average efficiency a man. has decidedly
varied. A study OF history shows that
to forecast the result under such condi-
lions correction must he made Tor the
strength, as above determined In ac-
cordance with the area and natural adj
yantages of the respective nations,
A large area or certaip other natural
advantages have made nations more
vulnerable to an enemy. Nations with
compact areas. like Japan or Swltzer'
land. have n distinct advantage whicf
larger nations, like Russia or China
would not possess even II their popu'
lat!ons were more nearly equal. o.
course, the correction to be made or
account of area and natural advantages
can be learned only by the careful stud,
of history. II the natural advantages
OF the land of two different nationi
were the same, and II the products O
the number and efficiency OF their IN
habltants were equal, I think that TN
relative strength Of such nations woul'
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04

that Russia would win. use OF the
above formula would have clearly
shown an opposite result.
The last war in which one of the i'm
portant European nations was engaged
was the Turkish-Itaian war, and the
following figures are applicable thereto:
Total area of Turkish Empire ga M il.it6
Total populA Ion. a9HO.OO
nCn silly ~
T9'nl number attending schools Of all ~, ,oo
Per cent, ofpopplo,lqn attending school 81
Arca Of TwLcy. IN Asia square miles, 42o2 72
popult tlun OF hurley IN ASA 2lUDWD
tslusc miics'.'.'. - w. ' ...'',,' 2.5ss
trhc system ~ lcNying tlthc on all produce
Is required for his own use or immediate proxi-
Unity; Further, agricultural development was
greatly crippled by customs dues for cNportA tiOn
Of produce from one province to Fnotherp
No statistics OF prison population are
available for Turkey.
Total area Of Italy square mllcs) ...... 10, 5'1
Total population .,.....-...... 3A,o7i Sl5
Total number attending school In Italy S,s7Sl72
Per cent, OF population attending
TN The last forty-slN years there has been an
Prison population in 1911 ,','''','"',,, as2a
Total productive area. ...,......,.. o2'6
Number over years Of age engaged in
agriculture about onc-thlrd fcmnlcsl lOO3
RESULT;
pa $1,000 i,Sosioo'ooo
90 90
pa H,7c' i,2o?omOoo
Italy, ..s------- =-.rr------=l0.s7 units
i ii05 ii0.5
This not only shows why Italy won,
but why her victory was so complete
that the war was looked upon In Eu-
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04


an average OF $50, which would be IS
per cent. Hence Il for n nation with
the above statistics would be IS per
cent. Of the population Of the nation.
OF course estimates would need to be
arbitrary to a large extent, but by esti-
mating cor small units the result would
be very good, II the work were done
under impartial international direction.
The law Of averages would here correct
errors, the same as in connection with
crop estimates. 1t would be necessary
only to be sure TO include enough sub
jects and have honest census takers.
After ascertaining p and estimating
f for two nations, their products can
further be checked. For instance. these
products should approximately compare
with the internal improvements and
gold reserves of the nations, after ad-
Justments according to the loans from
or TO other nations.
To ascertain a. or the area os ma
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04
n, ROGER w. BABsoN.

= HAVE been asked to apply the re-
msrts which 1 made in Paris In
March. 1918. and which were then
published in THE SuS, to the pres
on, European conflict. using a theory
then referred TO in determining what
tho result Of the present war will be.
For the benefit Of readers who did not
see quotations from that address. three
paragraphs are here repeated:
81 believe that the researches ~ an
International census institute would
show that the results of the wars of,the
mast few centuries could have been pre-
determined ny a study of the relative
ne, producing powers of the nations in
yoved. believe It can he proved by
statistics thnt great victories have al
ways depended upon the net producing
movers Of said nations rather than upon
their standing armies or navies.
In other words. armaments are like
paper currency that il OF value, not in
themselves. hut according to the re-
serves back " them. II Germany and
England could fight to-day without
allies. the result would be determined,
not BY their relative armies or navies,
but BY their relative net producing
powers. OF fundamental prosperity. Not
only will the nation that Is the most
truly pr sperous have the wherewlthal
10 fight the longest. but It's people will
have something worth fighting for. to
protect The people who have had the
most to lose have always been the
hardest fighters, and have always won.
II an International census institute
finds this demonstrated by history. the
effect Of such a realization would be
most far reaching and revolutionary.
instead II directing all efforts to In
creas!nE expenditures for war, giving
little attention TO increasing production.
the Governments would turn their ener-
ges 20 producing and conserving. In
stead Of competing in ornaments by de-
yelopinG more efficient guns. they would
compete for representation on an inter
national relations congress by developing
more efficient men; for this representa-
ton will some day be based upon the
relative contribution to the worlds
progress as shown by statistics"
For tho text Of this address used
the quotation The race is not to the
swift. nor the battle 10 the strong" and
Illustrated this thought by references to
various wars In which nations won that
were comparatively weak in ornaments
and requirements usually accepted as
determining the results of war In addi-
ton 20 stating that another European
war was inevitable and that II would
be started by Austria. I said that Ger
many could easily whip any other ma
ton. and perhaps any two combined
irrespective Of their standing armies or
navies OF course this statement did
not please my French audiences: but
when TIE reasons were given. few dared
20 take exception thereto, and the
Temps. the leading French daily, re-
ported the statement without criticism.
This prediction involved no foresight
on my part, but was merely the result
Of applying the following simple
formula:
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04
On Arnaments They Suggest One
Thing and on Growth Another;
Which Will Determine
the Victory?

the same out to his own satisfaction:
Home pop sls1a atsRsS ,ss.SsGks HGisrS
Total pop .soSseo 77o2i ,aca ~ ,2a.es.
Ar.,, .,n,. 81 ,S sS 10 i7so
r. county. i7.so ec7oa aos7o 1873
pro,ecs.. il.oos.s7s .esaiS i.2seco Gs.oa
Death rate. l'o''i's '~ n: is's ''Gsi
Home population ss9sseco $3.50 Ss .ss fsSis
. '' 7sS ara co'5 es,J
Go S%S s9s%n pTS,e. ss' ssSs s: isS
s.ou,.Co 2u4ei. aos.io
Death rate..,...... POS Aus ~ 221
'Aus'ria ana Hun gerry combined.
In a popular article OF this sort Il IL
impossible to enter into the details OF
the compilation necessary in arriving
at the above formula, but the following
facts pertaining to the wars in which
these nations have been engaged dur
Ing the last 500 years suggest the basis
OF reasoning.
II one will study the economic his
tory of Europe in conjunction with the
following table one will be convinced
OF this fact: the law of action and re-
action applies to nations the same as to
families and individuals. The wheel
keeps going around.
A nation IL first poor. but through in
dustry and Eelf-sacrifice develops in
| density and efficiency until It becomes
strong. At the same time some neigh
boring nation that was then rich and
powerful becomes self-satisfied and
/ at.a1A -, an
great and its commerce important yet
II declines in density and efficiency.
After a time these two nations enter
into war with one another and the
world is astounded that the first nation.
which a half century before was poor
and uninfiuentlal has won a victory
over the supposed larger and richer ma
| tion.
But this Is not the whole story. This
newer nation. flushed with success. now
begins to follow the example OF its
older neighbor and itself becomes care
less. licentious and inefficient: while the
defeated one. thoroughly frightened be-
gins TO mend its ways and again TO de-
velop efficiency. Hence. when another
war RACES between the two nations. the
rslIlts are liable to be just the opposite.
Although Il is common ncwspa per talk
to-day that England has never been
beaten" vet the following table show.
clearly that out OF the thirteen wars
in which England has been engaged
during the past 500 years she has won
only seven. She has suffered decisive
defeat in Ave. and one has passed into
history as a tie. In fact, when one
studies this table one is surprised at
the way In which nations have first
won, then lost again then won again
ih accordance with the formula:
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04

ton, Is a simple matter. To correct this
area BY deciding on proper figure for
G is more difficult. However. certain
arbitrary corrections can easily be made
for climate. topography. minerals riv
ers, harbors, &c. These corrections
could be decided on by international
agreement and then applied by mathe-
NAUTICAL formulas. An excess of a GER
tain amount of coal. for instance. would
count the same as an excess of GER
tain amount OF acres In either case
nation possessing such an excess would
be obliged proportionately TO increase
the product OF = and f in order TO re-
cord the same result in 8.
If the nation has a population OF 10,-
100000, an area of 100000 square miles
and f in percentage is estimated at IS.
the formula would be as follows:
100000 ! IS ! 100000
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04

bicd for tho purpose at Brussels in 1874.
1t was presided over by the Russian
Baron Jomini. son OF
the famous Muscovitc field marshal of
that name who played so important "a
role in the Napolconic wars in the be-
ginning of the nineteenth century.
Nearly every civilized Government was
represented, and after much delibern-
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04

The only uncertain problem in apply
ing such a formula Is ascertaining the
proper figures for L and c.
Theoretically + Is the product Of
what a man produces Of things worth
while and the happiness he secures in
his work. To ascertain such with any
degree OF exactncss 1t would be neces-
sary To keep personal record OF how
each individual uses his time, strength
and intelligence. Such accounting sys-
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04

on the way to Sadowa relieved the te-
dium of the march by discussing the
dialogue OF Plato, and how in 1870 these
same student soldiers with pathological
leanings found amusement in pub
fishing a favorte song in thlrty-two
different languages. Beyond question
these Prussan bayonets met MaZ2lni's
requirement for bnyonets, that they
should have ideas at their points"
The following figures apply to tho
Russo japanese war, Fuller statistics
are available for the recent wars than
for the earlier ones
Total area Of European Russia tsp, miles so ~
Total population OF European Russia laO5sNv1
Total number attending schools Of an
kinds in Russia lncludlng private, re- oo- o.o
llgious, blind, deaf and dumb 7,SO7OS-
Per, cent OF population attending
Prison population In Russia 1873
'V 1saunTe niles Hes y" '''''''"" '"''' s277a2
Per cent OF total cultivated .... ...... ~
square niles ,''''. s7i20
Japan, ho'inciuding foTcisnTcsdenrs oo'o,,lss55
kinds il Japan education compuisoryl o,7aoH
Per cent. OF population OF main island
attending school. .... ......... ........: III
Prison population in Japan 1900 all
kinds, accused. convicted ana de- no,
Cultivated area In Japan so miles 2ol27
Per cent OF area OF main Island Gull
RESULT:
pr Oos l4,d2O?NUn
=, s 'ss s.sd as 'Soo@
japan" 81 ' D"'''
Here again. although every one
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04
PRISONERS OF WAR
PERPLEXING CAPTORS
ny r.. CUNL,FrE-OwEN.

- RISONERS N war have from time
- immemorial constituted prob
lem OF extraordinary difficulty;
a difficulty which certain bar
barous races to this day solve. as our
ancestors did OF old, by converting them
into slaves or by putting them to death.
Indeed. by some OF the African. and
Polynesian tribes, prisoners Of war are
treated as mere butchers mca' and
eaten. No such methods as these are
at the disposal OF civilized nations nova
days who are debarrcd by consdera-
tons Of humanity-and possibly Of gas
tronomy-from either killing or dcvour-
ing their captives.
Hence the question becomes more
and more perplexlng as time rolls by.
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04
2Os 2OS
pa $4,000 1900 ,OOOOO

2Oi 2Oi
TNis shows that Germany should
have won. which she did. In connec-
ton with this war Myers in THE Mod
ern Age" says: I'm the matter of the
mobilization and transportation of Ger
man troops everything had been thought
of and prearranged to the minutest de-
tail, Every emergency had been fore
seen, 1t Is said that $50 rains, loaded
with 10000 soldiers, were despatched to
the French frontier not minute late.
"There was deep underlying cause
of the superiority of the German army
over the French, which is worth noting
In the dark days which followed Jena
in the time of the first Napoleon the
statesmen entrusted with devising
means for Prussia's regeneration turned
to education as the surest agency for
the quickening and strengthening Of
the Prussian nation. II was her sys-
TEN of education, quite as much as her
system OF military service. which had
given Prussia her strength, and which
was now leading her 10 these high
places.
ut is told how the Prusssan soldiers
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04

G would be constant which could be
determined by International agreement
by each nation about once in twenty
years, based on the natural advantages
OF the nation. A nation with many
natural advantages should have a
minus G. while nation with few nat
ural advantages should have n plus c.
For rough estimates. however. such
as have used for n popular article of
this kind. the condensed formula -
r, and c being omitted. AS above ex-
planned. p is the total self supporting
population over a certain age who can
read and write. Hence p Is thus de-
pendent on the death rate and earnings
of the people MS well as upon the illt-
eracy. In most cases the results are
the same.
think. however, we have had enough
OF theory. l. will now give applications
/ OF the above theory to three OF the
most recent wars 10 which any one
Of the large European nations has
been party, the Franco Prussian
war. the Russo-Japanese war and
the Turkish-Italian war. Owing to
the lack of figures on illiteracy
p is taken as equalling J., which
reduces the formula to
THE FRANCo-PRUSsIAN WAR.
Area OF France In 1870 ................ 20t 092'
Population OF France In 1870. ......, 80, i02 02i
Largest number ever taken csptlvri $1,000
| 500!
Area OF Germany In 1870 ........... POS 7ss'
| Population Of Germany In 1870 ....... ~ 10000
Square miles. tSoldlers. tOfncers
The simplfied formula applied to the
above figures results as follows:
pa ~ OOO7 1881 10000
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04

rope as almost an ope-atio perform
ance.
Considering the present conflict, we
have the following figures for Germany.
Austria. England. France. Russia, Bel
GUM and Japan:
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04

BY the application Of the above
formula II will be seen that Germany's
strength figures out 20,l09 units, Eng
lands 1882 units, Frances 1871 units
and Russias 2,475 units. Thus, ignor-
ing standing armies and Notifications,
out considering simply the fundamental
relative strength of these nations, II
Will be readily seen that Germany easily
has more units of strength than France
and Russia combined or than Great Brit
ain and Russia combined, and that she
Is not far behind the united strength
OF Great Britain, Russia and France,
which amounts TO 25.67s units, against
2OlO9 units for Germany alone.
BY adding Austria's units to those Of
Germany, and the units of Belgium and
Japan To the allies. of course the pre-
dominance Of strength Is still more IN
favor of the allies; but, as will be shown
ld''r, there Is no uCINdifference as
most people think. Hence. If the theory
mat the ultimate success of nations de-
ponds, not on their temporary navies
and ornaments, but rather on their
density and real efflciencW this present
war viii not be a decided victory for
any party. provided no additional ma
lions enter the conflict.
or course the statistics on battleships
ana armaments are greatly in favor OF
me allies and therefore ii Is natural
ma almost every one should think that
"erWany is to be annihilated and the
war sure 10 be a complete victory fol
England France and Russia. However
statistics OF density and efficiency, "a
ABOVE stated, show something different
namely that. II no additional nations
are involved. the war will be more oil
less NJ a draw, with neither side en-
are!J victorious.
some Claim that In the above com
P'atuns the area and population OF tn
various colonies of tho respective coun
ines should be included. | have worke'
" ont in that way also, but fail to fin'
any great difference. II anything. tn
'o-nnies Of England and France weaker
their statistical position. However, wit
LLs following taUds any reader can worl
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04

For the further benefit of readers
who desire to make calculations for
themselves I will now explain more in
detail the theory outlined in the for
mula:
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04
STATISTICS AND THE
RESULT OF THE WAR

vary inversely as their area. For In
stance as
P=Populatlon.
beverage efficiency per unit
h=Area.
C=Constant OF correction
S=Suength.
1r., ,. reputation oynncient PIKE
Area+C PO'"'a"o" A+C
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04
Population y T.
Area = c

In the above formula f represents
the number Of efficient people and c is
a constant based on the topography and
natural resources of the country. all or
which will he explained later in this
article
From estimates which had been made
! found that the total self-supporting
population over a certain age who are
ahle to read and write (Which will be
called P'). makes a very good number
for L, moreover, the natural advan-
tages and disadvantages OF the nations
involved in the present conflict so
nearly balance that c may be omitted
and the formula may be reduced from
PIE PIP
Sueng,h=-- to the simple formula s.
h-C
Furthermore TO avoid the necessity or
making any estimate, I will now use
for determining ~ only the latest Of
fcial figures on illiteracy. The approx
innate statistics are as follows:
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04
National siren 9Th

National siren gth=.-----------
-
and for rough calculations=--
which in simple English means that
density and efficiency determine the
strength of nations.
TABLE OF EUROPEAN WARS SINCE 1900.
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04

Continued on Fourth Page.
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04

n ~
Here again. although every one
thought at the beginning OF the war
The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-10-04
io.Oc+C

1000. 900 ! IS : 10000. 600
New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1914-03-22
ALFRED EDWARDS AND THE
COSMOPOLITAN "MATlN."

He gave to the "Matin' the per
sonal note of Paris. lie arranged
with The London Times TO have
all its worldwide news dispatches
repeated in the "Matin," and thus
gave il that unsurpassed conspectus
of the worlds doings. He intro
duced the New York system of re-
porting local news and interviews.
With all he pursued the catholic
course of Villemessant i'm the
Figaro" and printed signed lead
ing articles by men of all shades Of
political opinion. ON Monday Jules
Simon. Independent conservative
Republican. ON Tuesday. COrnely.
Of the "Gaulois." Orleanist. ON
Wednesday, Emanuel Arene, Deputy
and Opportunist Republican. ON
Thursday, John Lcmoinne, of the
journal dcs Debats." Academician
and Senator. Republican with or
lcanist tendencies. AT other times
his two colleagues or lieutcnants on
The STAFF: Delafossc. Deputy and
university professor. successfully
Orleanist. BonapartiSt and moderate