The Topeka state journal. [volume] (Topeka, Kansas) 1892-1980, 1914-09-22
BUSINESS RECOVERY Is ON.

BUSINESS RECOVERY Is ON.
This country is rapidly adjusting
itself to war conditions and already
shows visible signs of recovery from
the terrific blow which fell upon the.
entire civilized world more than six
weeks ago. writes Henry Clews, the
New York banker. in his current week.
ly financial review. and he continues:
That blow smashed the worlds credit
system in a fashion never before ex-
perienced and never expected by those
responsible for the war. or by those
who were able to estimate its effects.
the shock has been. met
with remarkable success in this coun-
try, thanks to intelligent cooperation
between government. financial ana
commercial interests; and. while the
difficulties to overcome are still OF the
gravest character and while further
disasters lay yet be possible. the stu
alton is vastly better than at any time
since the war began and the outlook is
certainly for steady Improvement
There Is a better demand for CONNER
cial paper. and foreign exchange is de-
clining and at the lowest since the war.
Finance. grain and cotton bills are each
in better supply and tend to prevent
gold exports which otherwise would be
inevitable. The success Of the New
York city per cent loan. and the inn
proved condition of the Bank of Eng
land are also encouraging factors.
Much necessarily depends upon the
progress of The war. An early end OF
the struggle would bring absolute re-
lief. followed probably by a sharp re-
bound in values. A protracted struggle
would. however. impose a growing
strain upon an already seriously weak
ened financial position abroad. If the
Allies are determined. as is said. to
crush militarism. that means the END
will not come until exhaustion Of one
side or the other. An earnest move
ment is be A.. made for peace, but at
this stage Of the struggle 1t seems
hardly likely that Germany would ac-
cept such proposals. as the Allies may
be expected to make. 1t is said this
war is costing about $50.0o0.000 day.
which is at the rate of about $1S.000.-
900, 900 a year. These figures are prob
ably somewhat exaggerated. Besides.
it should be remembered that in time Of
peace the huge. armies of Europe have
cost staggering sums; SO that the net
increase in the war is not represented
by its present actual cost. The worst
effects Of the struggle at the moment
are the awful carnage. the wanton de-
struction of property and the wholesale
Of finance and COM
merce. Happily the financial situation
is gradually improving. both in London
and in New York. No arrangements
have as yet been made for the opening
Of the stock exchanges at these re-
spective markets for the reason that
thus far no plan has been devised for
taking care of the securities which
would probably be offered for sale from
abroad. Until some plan Of gradual or
partial resumption Is devised 1t is the
part of wisdom to keep the exchanges
closed; disappointing as that may be to
the large numbers vitality interested in
their resumption.
Next to ending the war. the surest
means Of stock market resumption
will be a revival Of confidence. Thus
far investors seem to have held their
heads. and the greatly improved finan-
cial conditions Of the last few weeks
WdTA ait uiStAAAStAy HIOA AOPSAuA ACCA"
ing regarding the future of Investments.
There is no doubt that any shrinkage
in our investment securities resulting
from the war will be made good with
in a reasonable period Of time after
the war is over. History shows that
in all wars a sharp recovery in security
values followed after the worst effects
became known. The worlds output
of securities annually amounts to
about $4,000, 100000. The war will Of
course result in a vast output OF for
eign loans for posterity will be obliged
to pay the costs. 1t is quite probable.
therefore, that the output of new Sc
curities IN this country will be cur
tailed for some time to come. This
of itself will have a steadying inf1u-
ence upon security values here. espe-
cially upon those Of the better class.
There is another reason also for
preserving confidence in regard to
American securities. which is that they
are now at a very low price. having
withstood the strain Of unfavOrable
conditions both at home and abroad
with remarkable success. There have
been relatively few suspensions of divi-
dends, which demonstrates that our
industrial and railroad corporations
have been eminently successful in sus-
tanning their credit, notwithstanding
many reverses. Again, the United
States will feel this war less than any
other civilized nation in the world. To
a large extent this country is self-con-
tanned. and is less depedent upon for
eign trade than any other country at
present involved in war. Our foreign
commerce, 1t Is true, has received a
shock; but the disturbance has not
been as serious as expected; and
though our August exports showed
heavy losses the later foreign COM
merce returns indicate that we are
rapidly returning to more normal con-