The Richmond Virginian. (Richmond, Va.) 1910-1920, 1914-01-19
RESULT OF FIGURING
BULLETINS ISSUED AFTER MEAS
gREMENT OF MOVEMENTS
OF STORMS JUST AS MFN
MEASURE SHIPMENTS.

WASHINGTON. Jan. 1s.--when
the weather doesn't turn out just as
the weather man predicted. don't
blame him. he is just "a victim of
circumstances. in that after he had ii
all figured out that a storm, known to
DE travelling at 81 certain speed and
covering q certain area would reach
s. certain point and remain there a
definite length OF time. something
came along and upset his calculations.
The planets don't hold any secrets
about the weather just for the wealth
er man.
It's Just a plain, everyday business
Of figuring, much the same as a man
IN commercial life orders shipment
of goods and calculates that IL will
arrive at a specified point at GER
ain time, simply by figuring when,
ana where the train starts and how
ong II takes TO travel the distance.
Well, place the weather man in the
same latitude with the business man.
and you will get an idea as TO just
row the weather is predicted and why
The weather man sometimes goes
wrong, ns when he failed to predict
the famous flare back" of 1900. when
President Taft was being inaugurated.
Subject to Error.
Suppose a business man had ordered
4 carload of pineappies from the
Ia waaian Islands. lie would know
the average time il would take the
steamer TO make the trip 10 the Pa
zinc port, the average time for UNI
loading and loading into refrigerator
cars and The average number Of days
TO be allowed these cars for their trip
acrass the continent to New York.
His estimate. however. would he sub
Ject TO error because the steamship
might be delayed by fog or the cars
might nleet with an accident
Storms. like Tineapples. as n rule do
net originate In the United States
They come here, some from the Phil
ippines. Japan. Siberia, Alaska, Can
ada or the Gulf of Mexico The
weather bureau gets cable, telegraphic
or wireless notice OF foreign storm.
Station after station or vessel after
vessel reports the storms arrival in
its neighborhood, so that the gem
esal direction and rate Of progress
can be determined very early. In
fact. the arrival of some storms can
be fosetald ten days in advance.
For~casters' Methods.
The forecastnrs watch for the region
Of low barometer which is the storm
center around which the winds blow.
This whiri or eddy moves bodily for
wsrt with the general eastward drift
tpdss. As the lines Of equal pressure
ttsobArSt around the low center
crowd closer together the winds at
tending the storm increase in force
The forecastsr determines the direction
Of movement OF the storm and Its We
1ocity.
When Weather disturbance sare re-
ported. the foreeasters know from ex-
partence abent how long II takes them
70 reach our Pacific coast, and then
how long after they will reach the
Atlantic coast. For example. IL r.
storm coming from Siberia drifts east
ward around the North Pole and re-
appears In Alaska. II should appear in
washington and Oregon In about two
days: SHOULD get TO the Great Lakes in
SIX days and to the tiantic coast in
seven or eight days
sterxs~ May BE Diverted.
Unexpected conditions may delay
storms or divert thsyn fr om the straight
track inst IA a refrigerator car may
he thrown of it's schedule or be shipped
tyy aociG emit a wroag road. Some Of
EnMEe storms deplete them selves by
running into regions OF high baro~
meter which are Of greater maRni-
tsade and e1tent than the storm itself
Some of them, however, travel corr
p1etely around the world
To keep tab GA cold waves that come
into The United States from Canada
and Alaska, ths weather bureau studies
the Canadian weather reports, Eng
land sends reports from Iceland. the
British Islands and continental Eu-
rsspe, and daily reports come from ST
Petersburg On the conditions in Rus-
sia Mnd siberia
The same bRsisess~like system used
in tracing the track OF a storm is
applied ia determining the arrival of
fycs<s.
Forecasts of Floods
Plood forecasts are made in much
The same way. Information as to the
amount Of rainfall at the headwators
Of streams that cause floods are COW
sired by tGisgraphic reports sent by
local observers. AS this rain reach s
the main channel the height OF the
water in the channel is determined by
successive guagirg stations. Past re-.
cords establish how much & height,
say OF twenty feet at Dubuque. Iowa,
Efl produce at Davenport, another
station slightly miles down the Mis-
sissippi. This plan is followed all the
waw down the river. and at each point
fun allowance is rnaoe for the effects
of water from tributaries and from
additional aad local rainfall as n
result OF these ohser ya-rlons in the re~
oefs Good, the people of Cairo had
warning weefZ Or ton days in ad-
vance The Pfttsburg district can be
given only twelve to twenty~four
faourg Eotica because flood lis upon
sfas~rts within ira afltw- Yaaar hours a fl esf