New-York tribune., 1914-08-05
REVIEW OF THE
STOCK MARKET
Foreign Trade Problem a
Big One for Traders
and Bankers Alike.


What is TO happen 20 the foreign
trade of the United States, amounting
to over 4,OOOOoO,OOO annually, now
that the mercantile marine of many
countries is being withdrawn from tho
use of American importers and ex-
porters, Is a question that is beginning
to share with the actual war develop
ments abroad the attention Of people
rot only in the financial district but
throughout the country. In such illus
tfations as the announcement of one
of the oil companies on Monday that il
must curtail its purchases of crude oil
because its market for refined products
has been narrowed. and the decision Of
some of the railroads 10 put an
embargo on goods destined for export
the problem is made graphic. The
several plans that have been sug-
gested for augmenting the mercantile
marine of the United States do not,
even II taken altogether, and tenta-
lively admitted to be feasible, solve
the problem adequately Importers
have relatively little 70 hope for in
that connections; their difficulty is more
than that of transportation. Exporters
arc divided in opinion as to what the
war will mean TO them, even when 1t ID
conceded that some way will be found
to get bottoms for their goods.
While Congress and shipping men
are considering ways and means to pro-
vide transportation for goods to Eu-
rope bankers are as busily engaged
trying TO devise financing methods that
will ft a condition absolutely without
parallel. All the ordinary resources
have disappeared. Quite reasonably,
exporters here refuse to take the risk
Of sending goods abroad for which 1t
may be impossible to get payment for
many months, and perhaps not at all.
importers can make no definite prom
ises to their customers in Europe, and
they can get neither exchange nor gold
to pay in advance for the goods that
NAV never even come. Bankers cannot
sell them exchange, because they have
no way of shipping gold TO meet their
drafts at maturity. The situation OF
the exchange bankers. in fact, has Just
Rad emphasis from the return to the
United States of the Kronprlnzessin
Cecilie, with her gold destined fol. Lon
6on and Paris undelivered. The bank
ers who engaged the gold in the first
instance and sold exchange against IL
are technically short, as stock trader
may be short of stock Because OF
the prolonging Of the Bank Holiday IN
London they will not have to meet
their engagements there until Friday,
but the respite could be for a period
ten times as long and leave them no
better off If no way is found either 70
ship gold or to pair off debts and
credits here.
Presumably a way will be found be-
fore long to ameliorate the situation,
so far as IL concerns international pay
mcnts. II will not be surprising If
some plan is adopted for sort 81
clearing house of these debts, from
Europe TO America and from America
10 Europe, TO be located in New I orr:
The difficulty of every plan is, OF
course. 70 find some way of creating
credits for the United States that shall
offset the credits of Europe, the latter
beinc swelled TO stupendous total by
tie heavy sales Of stock here IN June
and July by foreign investors, the nm,
usually large imports OF the Dnltee
States in the first eight months OF
operation of the new tariff. and the eH,
Cxpatriates in Europe.
There is so much for the bankers
and the business men and the govern
mont TO do that it is almost certain 70
ho a matter Of many weeks before such
new systems as may be invented can
no made 10 work smoothly unless the
much desired but hardly probable tnIng
banpens and war ceases in Europe. but
practical men with a large grasp OF
afTairs abound in America as nowhere
else. and something like order VIII De
restored to our foreign commercial re-
lations soon, without doubt.
or the DAVIS Developments by. far
the most interesting was the decision
of the English Cabinet, supported oy
Parliament, 10 defend the neutrality
Of Belgium against the invasion OF
Germany. The Kings order to mobilize
Fngland's land and sea forces and the
anpronrjation of S525, 100000 for emer-
oencv purposes, taken together with
he ultimatim to Germany, make only
one inference possible.
In the presence of the tremendous
confsgration across the Atlantic the
economic reflections of peace in this
country attract but little attention.
The future, so far as 1t concerns the
limited States, is bright, but its out
lines are not sharply defined. The
crons are big and the damage that has
been dome TO them would not, perhaps,
have been seriously disturbing even
~ the world were still going on un-
changed from what it was before the
war began. Starvation is just below
the horizon for Europe, on the other
hand. with millions of her producers
farmers and artisans and the thou
sand units of distribution turned in
week into consumers and destroyers.
creating nothing. Now we have and
thew have, but shortly We shall have
more and they nething. And when that
time comes the end of the war must
.,raf,r no eQen