New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1914-01-02
HAS WITHSTOOD
SEVERE TEST
Manhattan Realty Lives Up
to Its Reputation for
Stability.
OVEREXPANSION NOT
A SERIOUS MENACE
Supply of Moderate Priced Apart
ments on Heights Is Less
than Demand.
ny CHARLES GRIFFITH MOSES

ny CHARLES GRIFFITH MOSES
Sicc-Presidcut OF J. Romaine Brown Com
pany.
II must he n source Of some satisfaction
10 an those concerned. that. while 1913
was marked by many shrinkages ana
rcccssions IN values OF most securities
Manhattan real estate as usual stood the
test OF hard times and comparatively dull
business conditions better than almost
any other form OF investment. The fact
that values i'm some parts OF the city have
been somewhat depressed cannot be
denied, but the reasons for this situation
are readily understood and the promise
FOR a better state Of things in the near
future Is so certain. when these reasons
are considered, that the outlook for 1914
IS unquestionably a bright one.
There are two fundamental principles
which seem 10 control the upward as
well as the downward tendencies OF New
York real estate. and these must never
be lost sight OF in endeavoring 10 find the
reasons for such fluctuations.
The first is our old friend, supply and
demand. and the second, changes IN
character OF a neighborhood.
OF course. where there are more lofts
or apartments or offices than there are
people 10 occupy and use them, rents
drop and values decrease, Just as rents
increase and values so UP when the re-
verse rs true
AS matter OF fact. New York City
real estate IN 1913 has not only felt the
general effect Of business depression, but
has suffered to limited degree from over
expansion and a somewhat too rapid
growth. When this state of AFFAIRS exists
in most other places (and it is true TO-
DAY Of many other cities not only in the
United States, but in England, France and
Germany IL takes a long time for the
equalizing pendulum 20 swing back and
bring values up 10 normal again, but New
York increases so rapidly both in popula-
lion and IN wealth that what seems Ike
an oversupply to-day becomes an absolute
shortage Tomorrow When a city Of
five million inhabitants does a manufact-
urine business alone of more than $4,000
go 600 a year within a comparatively
narrow area then there can never be
time when the property owner need feel
that an oyeTsupply Of rentable space can
last very long. provided the production
and creation Of new buildings in temporar-
lily suspended or. at least. retarded some
what. This overproduction has been most
noticeable as applied TO Office buildings,
lofts and in small degree 20 high class
apartment houses.
- Inasmuch as many big lending com
rAuies have practically suspended making
building loans on these three classes or
buildings Toy the present there is no
danger that the supply will increase to
trv great extent within the next few
months and it will need but a very shor,
lime. certainly less than a year. for the
demand to catch up and possibly overtake
the supply as far. at least, as the two last
named types Of buildings are concerned.
one thing is certain. and this is most
especially true of the West Side and
Washington Heights, there IS no over
supply Of moderate priced apartments
II is doubtful whether there has ever
been a year when vacancies in apart
ment houses. where the fats rent at
say from $40 to $3.50 per month. have
been so few Even those buildings
which were finished pretty late in the
fall. are for the most part fully rented
with practically no concessions made TO
attract the NtIdA4As HNAN
sections Of several blocks in area on the
Heights as we'll as on the middle West
side where there is not a single vacant
apartment 10 be found. Certainly a
most gratifying state Of affairs for the
landlord and property owner.
There seems 10 be a growing tendency
in New York toward the small apart
ment. and those OF two. three and -FOUR
rooms each seem 10 be the ones III
greatest demand, not only In the
cheaper grades but I'm the more pre-
tentious and higher priced houses as
well. II this condition continues ana
there is no reason why II should not
there IS likely to be an advance IN the
rentals Of this character Of apartment
as recent amendments TO the Dulldlhs
and tenement house laws substantially
nreclude the further erection Of TINS
TYNE OF house on an economic basis.
While this year has not been an &C
tive one from the standpoint OF the
broker, the closing weeks have shown
a decided improvement in the number
and character OF sales made, and the IN
creasIng supply Of money seeking in
vestment on bond and mortgage is a
good lnQlCdtlOu VI itAt"NN o~NA'-Ns
dealing in improved properties espe-
cially. A significant feature Of the past
year has been the increasing desire on
the part of the owner OF several smaller
parcels TO concentrate holdings In one
larger investment holding, and this has
enabled the builder who is obliged, on
account Of the higher values Of well To-
Gated land and the consequent necessity
for tall buildings. 10 operate In larger
units than heretofore, 10 find a much
more extended and more open market for
his finished product. This, together with
the fact that the last year has demon
strated the stability Of mortgage values
and income obtained from high class
well located buildings. will do much 20
stimulate the brokerage business for the
coming year
One thing is certain. at least. and that
Is that the owner of improved real estate
I'm Manhattan, purchased judiciously and
competently managed. need never he at
loss FOR a fair return upon his Invest
ment III conditions are bad, and there be
an oversupply In competition with his
holdings. he can always get some return
until times improve. He constitutes lis
own board OF directors and. TO a large cx-
tent. controls the situation. and cannot