The Birmingham age-herald., 1914-08-19
Looking For Ahead


 after a while the great international
 financiers would bring their influence to
 bear to end it. But when it became certain that practically all of the conti-
 nent of Europe and Great Britain would
 be involved the feeling was strong that
 the situation was beyond the reach even
 of the Rothschilds or any group of inter-
 national financiers.
 In the best informed circles in. this city
 there was the impression immediately
 after England and Germany became hos tile that the only available way of se- curing funds in large amounts was by the imposition of heavy taxation, supple mented by forced loans, and there were hints that France might seek to place large loan in the United States Great Britain's financial strength is capable of resisting unprecedented pressure. Rus sia and France possess large resources. and Russia is not dependent to any great extent upon other nations for food as Germany, England and to less degree France would be if the war should be prolonged.
 Whatever the financing may be during the war the permanent financing that must take place after the war is over it l is sure very greatly to affect conditions | in the United States There are few now who are in active life in this city who were in active life at the time of the l Franco-German war but those who do have vivid recolections of what took place then recall that as one of the re- l suits of that war was our own country 1 became financially embarra ssed, an em- barrassment which reached the climax in what is called "the Jay Cooke panic of 1S73."
 There are many American bankers who ft In ,ber bof yI,af
 tainly embarrassing, conditions prevailed l in the United States while Great Britain was preparing permanently to finance the great debt created by her war with the Boers in South Africa. More recent l ly our money markets felt the strain occasioned by the financial situation in Europe which was due to the Balkan war a few years ago. The public will prob ably never know how considerable that strain was and how admirably 1t was handled by American bankers.
 | But the Balkan war and even the war between England and the Boers created q financial condition which in comparison
 with those which will inevitably be con l sequent upon the general European war are only trifling.
 l There will be work of unprecented mag 1 itude for the worlds leading financiers to | undertake when the issues are determined rpon the battlefield or upon the ocean. The financial aftermath of this stupen- dous contest is likely to compare in its difficulties and magnitude with the de- vastation and tragedies caused by the civil war
 An Immediate Problem The United States at this time finds it. self curiousy. enough in a situation simi l lar to the one which so grievously em- barrassed the Confederate States between | 1861 and 1865 In the Confederacy there were ample supplies of raw cotton. From Great Britain and from France came i'm perative demands for this cotton. Louis Napoleon was prepared to break the fed eral blockade on the ground that France needed cotton and that he would be jus | titied in obtaining 1t in order to keep the looms running and provide a living for the artisans.
 Skillful diplomacy prevented the Elm reror from undertaking to break the | blockade. Unless means be provided by which the raw cotton which is to be harvested this fall can be exported to Great Britain and to France the United States will be in position so far as marketing this cotton abroad Is con- cerned, similar to that in which the Con federate States found themselves at the time of the civil war. There will be cot | ton. cotton everywhere, but not pound l for the markets which need 1t. Eng | ldHu fuuSI nave cotton or there VIII De q half million of her population thrown out Iof employment. If our cotton market l there is curtailed this fall the effects upon our international trade will be very seri- ous. Our cotton mas in recent years pro- vided the greater part of the interna- tional trade balance in favor of this coun- | try. While there may be state of chaos l for time so far as exports are con
 cerned, it is not thought probable that we shall suffer to any extent on account of our inability to secure raw materials
 which enter into our manufactured prod
 ucts. Fortunately the chief among the raw materials we import comes from South America So, also, much the greater part of the hide and skins which are utilized in American manufacture come from countries which are to maintain l.peuralitv while the war asts in Europe l With the certainty of abundant funds the probability even that there will be a
 I plethora of money in this country this
 fall the reasons are good for surplisine
 I that American industry will speedilv find 4 a way to make good whatever falling of \ in our iinportaton of raw materials used
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