The farmer and mechanic. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 18??-19??, 1914-08-04

Mr.. James II. Pou, of this city. who
has been a close student Of European
affairs f r the past ten years or more.
in an interview with a representative
OF the News and Observer yesterday,
gave some highly interesting facts
about the warning nations in Europe,
the probable outcome and the effect
il would nave on this country.
In the war he sees a grave menace
to the cotton crop of this county and
he believes that it will be necessary
for the national government 10 make
some temporary ranSeme by
which relief can beg iven and the cot
ton crop be protected from sacrifice
sale.
While he does not think it likely.
yet ne thinks it a possibility that the
Legislature of North Carolina and
other Southern States will have to be
aSSe mbled to pass temporary stay laws
SO that debts contracted with a view
to being paid from sales of cotton may
not he enforced exactly at maturity,
but postponed three to six months.
Mr.. Pou's interview follows:
First Stage of War.
1.-The first period of the war. say
during the month of August. will
probably show a number of victories
for Germany and Austria. They have
been preparing probably since the as
~sassination of the Archduke Ferdi-
nand. the last of June and are read
Ter to begin than the other side. Be
sides this. they know that their OPP
portunity to win depends entirely
upon the celebrity of their action and
the heavineSS of their early successes.
The Germans can mobilize much more
quickly than the Russians, and they
calculate that il will be the latter
half % August before the Russian
armies press on their eastern from
tier. Before that time the Germans
hope to crush the French on their
western frontier.
Doubtless the most furious fight
ing in the next two weeks will be
on the eastern frontier of France be
tween the Swiss line and Belgium
The first point the Germans will try
to take. apparently and naturally, is
the city of Nancy, on the extreme
eastern border of France. This is 6
railroad center and an iron manufac'
turing point-in short. the Pitts
burgh of France. If the German.
can get possession of Nancy, or ever
isolate it. it will be a great initial ad
vantage. The Germans will doubt
less make a mighty effort this Weel
to push their armies through the linz
of border fortreSSes which Franc
has strung across her northeastern
boundary.
May Strike Decisive Blow.
at is probable that very littl
fighting will take place on the east
fern German frontier. that is. the lin
Germany and Russia. TO
two weeks. If the German uccesse
in the early part of August shall b
very important. they may be decisiv
of the war. This happened in tn
last war between France and Ger
many. which was practically decide
during the first -four weeks. fghtin
beginning August End and the frs
stage of the war ended Septembe
End with the surrender of one arm
AT Sedan and the isolation of tn
other at Metz.
"AuStria'S attention for the ne1
two weeks will be devoted. doubt
less. to two things: first. crushin
Servia. and preparing her nOrtheas'
ern borders for the Russian onse
expected later in the month. | woul,
therefore. predict that for the neg
two or three weeks the advantae
will he with the Triple Alliance. {
Austria and Germany. with d poSS
bility hat their successes will be $
important as to be decisive of tt
war.
Much Depends on England.
There is another phase. of tn
stage of the war. which will Deepen
on whether England goes to war
not. Ii England goes to war, man
testify her first effort will be the in
mediate destruction of the Germa
feet in the North Sea. If Englar
goes to war. she will doubtless do
within the next three days, and h
first effort will be the destruction
the German fleet. Assuming, Their
fore. that England takes part wi
Russia and France. the next tv
weeks will show furious fighting
the Franco-German frontier. wi
h probable advantage. on accOu
OF their preparedness. with the &c
mans. and there will be lighting
the North Sea tive the Engli
and French fleets on one side al
the German IN the other. with t
probable destruction of a part of t
German feet and the bottling up
the balance.
The Second Stage.
II the war be not decided with