Bismarck daily tribune. [volume] (Bismarck, Dakota [N.D.]) 1881-1916, 1914-12-04

Z Conditions are growing better daily.
Only two things stand in the way OF
a sharp recovery-business depres'
sion at home and the war abroad. A
candid estimate Of these two factors
is necessary before an opinion can
be safely reached as to whether they
have been adequately discounted or
not. In the first, place, it is folly TO
ignore existing depression at home.
Before the war began reactionary
symptoms were widely prevalent. De-
Ginning bank, clearings, decreased rail
road earnings, industrial inactivity.
increased failures. and other indica.
tons, all told the story of business
stagnation. Moreover, depression
was aggravated by the continuous po-
litical battering Of big business, AS
well as by the. rising tide of Oppres-
,sive legislation. Then came the war
with it's unparalleled decentralization
of international trade, taxing the abil-
tiles and resources Of III financial
leaders almos.: to the breaking point.
There is no Boosting in saying that
the American business community
met this crisis .magnificently. No Sc
rious disaster resulted. Our financial
machinery. faced the storm and came
through the: stress, not only unscath-
ed, but actually strengthened by the
terrific strain thus imposed. 1t is
true the tension was less severe here
than in London, Berlin or Paris; but
on the other hand, practically no gov
eminent help was necessary here and
no moratorium was ever seriously
considered This supreme test prov
ed American finance and American
business to be wonderfully strong in
things fundamental. Our banks are
in excellent shape. Our industries
may be suffering from lack of orders,
but it is a satisfaction to know that
they are generally sound. Our rail-
roads, it is true, are laboring under
oppressive regulation and slack traf-
fic; nevertheless, their credit has
been marVellot,sly well maintained,
considering the obstacles to be ver
come. Our merchants have been
obliged to retrench; still they are op-
Grating on a conservative basis, and
they also are in a generally satisfac-
tory condition, notwithstanding dull
business. So much for domestic con-
ditions.
Across the Atlantic.
4 Looking across the Atlantic we find
the war still a factor Of supreme i'm
portance in American trade. 1t must
be remembered there are at least TO-
and the cost of the war is placed by
conservative experts at about $780,
O00,O aIday, oratNthe rate of about
$4,000, 100000 per year. These fig
ures, be it remembered, do not include
incidental losses to- war. such as de-
struction of property, arrangement of
trade, etc, not to speak Of the sicken-
ing loss Of life and the misery anu
suffering of millions which. cannot be
expressed IN money values. Nor does
this estimate include the additional
losses caused by the recent outbreak
o the war in Turkey and Southeastern
Europe. It goes without saying hat
it is utterly impossible for the world
to endure such wholesale waste of life
and wealth, and at the same time pre-
serve its prosperity. Distinct and dis
tant as WI may be from European &C.
tivities, we cannot entirely escape
sharing European, misfortune. For
years to come a large share of the
worlds savings must be absorbed in
paying the cost of this titanic strug-
tgia. Savings out of. which comes all
nav capital will he unavoidably re-
In other words, there will be
less capital than usual for new enter
prises; and any marked revival of in
.dustrial activity in any portion OF the
world must mean an urgent demand
for money.
cash or. eveniy credit may become
temporarily abundant, but genuine
new capital. such as is derived only
from savings, will be relatively scarce
for considerable time to come, and
will command much better rates than
before the val
The Reaction.
These are thesworst effects Of the
war-from the economic viewpoint and
they give only@ the darker side of the
picture. Let JUS now look upon the
brighter side. After every period OF
depression in public feeling, there
comes a psychical reaction when the
worst has been fairly passed. and pes.
simism Invariably gives way to a new