Milford chronicle., 1914-02-20
WEATHER BUREAU FORECASTS
STORMS, FROSTS and FLOODS

Many people have an idea that there
IS something mysterious and occult
about the work of the Weather Bureau
ID forecasting the coming of storms,
frosts. and floods. Not a few think that
the observers must necessarily get their
data by reading the planets, the stars,
and the moon. As a matter of fact, the
forecaster of the bureau foretells the
coming of disturbances in a business way,
Verv similar to that in which a man who
has ordered a shipment Of goods would
estimate the date of its arrival.
Suppose a business man had ordered
carload Of pineapples from the Hawaiian
Islands He would know the average
time it would take the steamer to make
the trip to the Pacific port, the average
time for unloading into refrigerator cars,
and the average number of DAYS to be
allowed these cars for their trip across
the continent to New York His esti-
mate. however, would be subject to
error. because the steamship might be
delayed by fog or the cars might meet
with an accident.
Storms, like pineapples, as rule do
not originate in the United States. They
come TO US, some from the Philippines,
Japan, Siberia, Alaska, Canada, or the
Gulf Of Mexico. The Weather Bureau
gets cable, telegraphic, or wireless notice
of a foreign storm. Station after station,
or vessel after vessel reports the storm's 5
arrival in its neIgn0orhoOd, 50 that the
general direction and rate of progress
can be determined very early. In fact.
the arrival OF some storms can be fore
told 10 days in advance.
The fOrecasters watch for the region
of low barometer which is the storm
center around which the winds blow.
This whirl or eddy moves bodily forward
with the general eastward drift of about
$50 miles day in our latitude. The fore
caster determines the direction of move
ment of the storm and its velocity.
When weather disturbances are re-
ported, the forecasters know from ex-
perience about how long it takes them .
TO reach our Pacific coast, and then how |
long after they will reach the Atlantic /
coast. For example, if a storm coming |
from Siberia drifts eastward around the
North Pole and reappears in Alaska, it
should appear in Washington and Ore
gon 10 ABOUT two days should get to the
Great Lakes in six days and to the At
lantic coast in seven or eight days.
Unexpected conditions may delay
storms or divert them from the straight
track, just as a refrigerator car may be
thrown off its schedule or be shipped by
accident on a wrong road Some OF these
storms deplete themselves by running
into regions of high barometer which are
of greater magnitude and extent than the
storm itself. Some of them, however,
travel completely around the world.
TO keep tab on cold waves that come
into the United States from Canada and
Alaska, the Weather Bureau studies the
Canadian Weather reports. England
sends reports from Iceland the British
Islands, and Continental Europe, and
daily reports come from st. Petersburg
on the conditions in Russia and Siberia.
The same businesslike system used in
tracing the track of a storm is applied
n determining the arrival of frOsts. i.
Flood forecasts are made in much the
same way. Information as to the amount
# rainfall at the head waters of streams J
hat cause floods are covered by tele-
sraphic reports sent by local observers.
As this ram reaches the main channel,
.he height of the water in the channel y
letermlned by successive gauging sta
ions. Past records establish how much 1
. height, say, of 20 feet at Dubuque, !
owa, will produce at Davenport, an
lther station so miles down the Missis- 7
ippi This plan is followed all the way !,
lown the river, and at each point full =
lllowance is made for the effects of /
gater from tributaries, and from addi- {
ional and local rainfall. As a result of {
hese observations in the recent flood Z
he people of Cairo had warning a week i
! ~ days in advance. The -Plttsburg y
istrict can be given only II to "a hours l.
otice, because a flood is upon them y
iithin "a hours after heavy rain storm. II II
COON DEN IL