The Idaho recorder. [volume] (Salmon City, Idaho) 1886-1927, 1914-06-11
A HARBINGER
OF GOOD TINES


p elude t Il corresponding .pe,iod .-of |
activity. Not only one but com
hinalion of such parallels Justify this |
expectation. There have heen ex-
ceptions, but the rule holds good. |
The deprsSoin which began in 1857
as followed by a time OF prosperity
continuing till 1873. Stsgnation sci
ia with the panic OF that year and
lasted till 1879. The depessi OF
1898 To 1897 was followed b boom
beginning In 1897 and reaching Its
height in the next two years. A sin-
liar period Of rapid recovery Is due as
sequel 10 the panic Of 1907 and
the succeeding years OF liquidation.
A potent Influence, il not the most
potent, Is the prospective bumper
wheat crop Harvest OF winter
wheat is only TWO weeks distant OH
the southern edge cf the--whaet belt,
and, unless sudden disatser should
cone To the crop, the crop will be
the greatest in the country's history.
Government estimates are shown
by state authorities .and private ex-
perts to nave been too low and the
total u winter wheat is now predic
Ell to, read $50, 600, 900 bushels, com
pared with 523, 900, 900 bushels last
year. The old crop has been cleaned
up more thoroughly than ever
| throughout the West. This fact
will counteract the depressing effect
which the holdover uusally has on
prices. The Middle West has bor-
rowed heavily and will hasten to
turn over its crop that it may realize
and pay its debts before the spring
wheat crCp breaks prices, Pressure
is being put on railroads 10y bankers
to move the crop promptly, and every
car will be set in motion When the
crop has been sold, buying OF mer-
chandise may be expected To revive.
The volume Of this buying will de-
pend on the size OF the spring wheat
and corn crops, which Is as yet q
nure uncertain quantity than winter
wheat. Wheat has repeatedly mod
ihed The adverse effect Of event and
has opened period Of reviva'. III
1870 lie markets we're deranged by
the Barring failure, but great wheat
crop in 1891 brought sharp recovery
The bumper crop OF 1898 started =
iod OF prosperity and another snci
Icrop in 1901 counter ced the effects
of the Norther1 Pacific panic, th'
corn crops failure and the Mckinle!
asSinatiOn. Another such crop u
1906 postponed for year the clasl
when was already due, and partia
reyivals in 1909 and 1912 are trace
able To like cause. One striking
exception In 1918, when the whea
crop was good, but the financial con
dition OF Europe ana the small corr
crop we're adverse influences. Busl
ness failed to revive after big whea
crops Ia 1877 aud lsIs, hut at tina
time the money market was disturbe
by agitation against the re.uhptioI
If specie payments. When thi
country resumed change FOR I'll
better, il came without regard !
Europe'S troubles.
A favorable symptom is the eas
money market, though business stay
nation has contributed 10 its east
, While the great state banks OF ku
= rope are adding to their boards {
gold, our banks have 50 much su'
plus reserve that they can export gol
, Sitnout causing tightening OF III
American money market. We al
on the eve of reorganization OF u
banking system which will take u
supply Of money correspond to u
legitimate demand and will pEeSei
u CROP moving demands from drai'
Z inv the supply irom eastern center
: Causes OF doubt in this country n
I the Mexican situation, the ireigl
Y rate ease and antitrust Legislation
q As to the last. No" York is prsyiI
= that congress will do nothing quick
Il what IL has IN mind, for the We
. desires action and is sk-ptical a.
e TIE degrees to shich snti-irust la'
h MID injure ssund business. II
y worst obstacle TO confidence Is u
rsrtfinty. which ~ill continue
A. lopg as congress remains in sessi'
"a and 80 long a. the freight-rate ca
~ remains undecided. Represe ntati
>. I-nderNoad attempted 10 sum np I
.. popular ten,per ~heu he said
l. Tur people Of the United stat
a are not tlampring rs much todsF
,b legislation a. they are for AZ oppofl
nf niiy d. business.
II. The people waut legislation agSii
- r,i,ts notwithstanding deniasl p
anatiug ffou trust headquarters, 3
IA tbey want an end % dsiay and ~
1ant most OF all A. Mr.. Under 40
ssys. opportunity 10 do busiDs
=" Natural aud fnaBcial condiii'
Ar. favorable Bo~ let the pr~sid'
" aod congress max governmental G.
dltiaS equally 80 Poe stsiio Chroi,
CandsdAss fof ComRiss'ensF.