The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-05-10
SpecuIattOns About War Between
Germany and Russia.

Though the immediate furry caused
by the recent exchange Of newspaper
hcstilities between Germany aud Rus
STA and the simultaneous forward stride
in warlike preparations by both coup-
tries may have subsidized. no small spec
ulation remains As to the relations he
tween the two great empires. present
and future. On the whole. no clash is
expected for year or two. Russia
is far from ready. and 1t would be
tactical blunder for Germany 10 take
the Initiative. Her plan Is to strike
France first and cripple her IN few
/ weeks, then turn her entire might
against Russia, The imperfection OF
the Russian railway system would give
her about five weeks respite. That
would be about the time necessary for
! II Mu>covite army 10 mobilize on tho
German frontier.
But the question may I've asked. viii
Russia aud Germany 20 tn war within
any period for which d prognosis may
be formed? Have they any motive or
incentiyc to war? What has either tn
gain by IL: To this the answer can
only b. that. while It is desperate
gamble, Germany stands to win stake
80 stupendous that the temptation may
sooner ar later prove irresistible.
Russia has far less To- gain by war
than Germany. She might annex Il
Polish province or 80. but she has no
need Of more territory. She might
covet the Prussian Baltic coast line
with it, ting harbors Of Dantzig and
k3nigSbcrg. but she would have to take
with them another discordant, prob.
ably. indeed. highly disaffccted, element
into her population. There Is large
Germanic element in the Baltic prov
inccs of Russia already. but il bears
the same relation to Russia that the
German speaking people Of Alsace- Lor-
rainc used to bear toward France
The incorporation of Prussian Ger
mans would embarrass Russia with
the counterpart Of AIsacc.L Lorraine In
its present relation To Germany. So IL
appears that the material advantage TO
] IL
many would he small.
On the other hand. the gain to Ger
many from Il successful war might be
such as To settle the history of Europe
for the next five hundred years. 1t
} might free her from all her present
embarrassnents and give her Il posi-
ton of absolute domination on the Con-
tinent. Gerlnany's greatest peril from
without to-day Is not the British sea
power, nor yet the organization of
} growing population of Russia. The
figure Of this has swelled from as
UND,ON in $50 To 100000 in
, 1850, to l29.OOO,OOO in 1870 and To
J l13.oOO,OOO in 1912. II is still grow.
Ing at the same rate, and as there ar,
S,379,O4i square miles of territory u
support it. with only twenty iuhabitants
to the mile, the Imagination slaggers
: at the ultimate possibility. With Il
population only half as dense as tina.
of Germany, Russla's rich and fertile
eypanses might easily support co.
WnOOO people. Against the miltar,
force which this would represent not
all the rest Of Europe in alliance could
make headway.
But Germany has also the domesti.
emharrassm Of a population who are
; beginning 10 crowd each ether beyond
endurance, Sh" now has $40 inhabi,
tants tn the square mile, and although,
) the rate of increase has diminished OF
late her people stlll multiply. What