New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1914-08-17

Thinks Germany Prepared.
pcau Johnson evidently thinks Ger
many has long been preparing for waE'
Ic calls attention especially 70 nc me
crease u the gold holdings OF the I'M
uerial Bank OF Germany. from Sl'4 .0.
GOO "a che beginning or 1918 10 $685.
900 on July i. 1914.
Following the lead Of Germany he
saws. "thc banks Of France and Russia
also piled up vast stocks q gold. The
extraordinary pressure for gold on the
part Of the great government banks OF
Furope. beginning early In 1913, IS re-
rarded as highly significant by those
who believe ttat one %. the "orid
powers deliberately planned and pro
NOTED this war
Dean Johnson sees oppOrtuulu ties ior
the United States, both IN extending
our financial influence and ir building
eur eNport trade. SO far re exports
are concerned. however. he emphasizes
tho difficulties q breaking into new
markets. even Il they may be tempo
rarily left open. As % the Opportuni-
ties Of American tinanciers, he says;
New York Is to-day the hnancla a!
capital Of the world. Up 70 the out
break Of the way the current Of in
fcrrafional trade flowed through
...London. and the London bill OF cx-
: change was thc accepted standard OF
-aywcnt the world over But the
terrible finger Of war las been lad
. upou the imposing financial struct-
. ures Of Europe and theg have al
. ready -hryellcd under It's touch.
IL IS likely that the bankers Of
: South America and the Orient Will
: increase their deposits in New YORK
the only safe haven for the mo-
ment and the New York b'.l Of eN-
( change viii temporarily take the
E place Of the London bill.
Z New York bankers have no desire
: 20 take advantage of the difficulties
. Of their English brethren. and IN the
Z long run il is 60 be hoped that Lon
don will regain hey financial strength
! and prestige. Yet. there is likely 20
4 be a residue Of permanent gain for
4 American bankers and exporters. I'm
during financial and trade relations
2 with many countries now almost
closed 10 American products VIII be
= established.
For the present. however, we are
confronted by q closed market for Sc
curities. with no definite prospect OF
its being reopened. Broadly speak
ing. only hand 20 mouth financing IS
possible.
New projects. therefore. or any
other large capital expenditures are
out Of the question. Construction
that has already been financed may
be carried on. and there may be lso-
Z lated cases Of new financing, but they
: will be exceptional.
Fortunately. the war broke out
: toward the close OF period Of lqui-
dation. American and Canadian craft
in the financial seas were already
? steering cautiously and with short
3 ened sail II the storm had burst IN
period Of expansion, its effect
would have been far worse.
Z The Aldrich-Vreeland bill, which
: permits banks TO take out emergency
. note circulation secured by deposits
Of commercial paper. is wise meas
Z ure OF relief. iu so far as 10 permits
: the free movement Of our grain crop
z without imposing an unnecessary
) strain on bank reserves Like other
measures Of relief, however, II con-
. tains possibilities OF abuse and dan
ger Any tendency toward initiation
OF the currency should be carefully
< watched and prevented.
Urges Readjustments.
Dean johnson finds few precedent.
.in European history that are Of value
.His summing up Of the present sltua
tion is as follows:
Vaster. more intricate and more
. rapid read ustments Of industry are
now called for than at any previous
: period in modern history. The gen
crai expectation is that the war will
be short. but there is no clear-cut
line Of reasoning that leads 20 that
.,refuefnv Aaauurfuos fha4 Tho Cor
man Empire is well stocked with
provisions and is able 10 raise its
: own food supplies for next year be-
: hind protected frontiers, and assum-
. ing that England and France are
able 20 command the seas and bring
iu foodstufs from abroad. the war
may be indefinitely prolonged. Ad-
miral Mahan has expressed the opn-
|. ion that IL viii be "a long war. Ad-
Il diti0ntl light probably viii be thrown
on this vital question by the events
Of the next few weeks.
a striking feature Of the situation
IS the uneven influence OF the war
On American Industries. We shall
probably see, II the situation con-
tinucs. certain indus' ries and com
mercial organ cations working az top
: speed and making enormous profits.
: while beside them viii be the empty
offices and deserted factories Of
other industries.
Dor the midst Of This unexpected
: turmoil. g. Is necessary that Ameri-
car business men should be alert
and should think quickly. 4 pitched
: battle on the other side 81 tne Ocecn
: can have a great and almost imme-
( date effect on the price Of provisions
boo some country store; on the policy
Of a manufacture who is consider
iEg changes IN his products OF ms