The Topeka state journal. [volume] (Topeka, Kansas) 1892-1980, 1914-11-10
BUSINESS REVIVAL NEAR.

Henry Clews,. the New York banker.
in his current.review Of the conditions
that exist in the world of trade and
finance: and he continues: $50 -much
SO that had the Stock Exchange been
opened there would doubtless have.
been reflected q sharp rise in secur-
ity values.
THE monetary situation also shows
steady Improvement and a progressive
readjustment to war conditions. The
surplus reserve of the clearing house
banks shows q steady increase. having
risen last week to nearly $18,O0O,OOO
compared with a deficit for the week
of August 8th OF $43,O0O,OOO. the low
water mark. This il a gain of $61,-
100000. Clearing house certificates
are being gradually retired. and con-
siderable sums of the vreeland emerg-
ency notes have also been Withdrawn
in anticipation of the early opening OF
the federal reserve banks, which in
due time will largely increase the sup
ply of loanable funds. There is no
longer any apprehensions regarding
the monetary future. Credit Is grad
ually tending to resume normal COM
ditions. and ere long business will
have completely adjusted itself to war
conditions and will go on much as
| usual. The position of foreign ex-
change is still somewhat abnormal,
though constantly improving. The
supply of bills during the past week
has not been quite SO liberal as in the
two previous weeks. Nevertheless our
exports continue on a very large scale
owing to the heavy shipments of food
stuffs. cotton. war material, etc. New
York practically dominates the foreign
exchanges for the time being, and its
financial relations with foreign coun-
tries are being strengthened daily.
England is no longer pressing for
settlement of our obligations for the
reason that funds in that center are
abundant. and the former pressure for
gold exports from this side has ma
| terially subsidized. 1t is estimated that
in October the excess of exports from
the United States will reach as high
as $6O,0OO.OOO, compared with only
$16,OOO,000 in the month Of Septem-
Der and an excess OF $4,000, 900
in imports in August. This
is remarkable and exceedingly salts
factory recovery of our foreign trade
| to what is normal.
THE tendency toward revival in
domestic business Is more pronounced
| than at any time since the war. This
Of course is mainly due to improve
| ment in the credit situation. The de-
| mand for our wheat and cotton has
been a very important factor. A
| number of our local industries are
| also being helped by the foreign de-
! mand for war material. which prom
! Uses to increase for some time to
come. Perhaps the most significant
development is the more hopeful tone
in the steel trade. 1t is true that pro-
duction continues at low water mark
or considerably less than so per cent
| of capacity, and that prices are very
low. Nevertheless the improved con-
ditions have impaired a decidedly
more optimistic tone to steel manu-
facturers, most of whom appear
to be convinced that depression
or the industry had reached its
limit. In the textile trades there
has been for nearly a week a feeling
of greater confidence. The impress
sion has grown that values have
about touched bottom and that con-
sumption is really at a minimum.
The wooden industry is much exer-
cised by interference with it's regular
supplies of wool under war conditions,
though on the other hand some man.
ufacturers have succeeded in captur-
ing large and profitable war contracts
In the agricultural sections, particu-
larly in the wheat belt, there is no
abatement of the hopeful feeling en-
gendered by large crops. The south is
naturally disappointed at the low
prices Of cotton, for which the big
yield will only partly compensate. The
resumption of the export trade. how
ever, plus the efforts to finance the
crop through cooperation has inn
parted very important relief. 1t looks
as if at no distant date the Cotton
Exchange would reopen; another i'm
portant step toward resumption OF
normal activities. In other respects
general trade is not satisfactory; is
restricted in volume. and shows a slow
recovery. The public at large is econ
omizing, partly from necessity, partly
owing to the large number of unem-
ployed and partly to the SOLDERING eff
fects Of the war. The financial situa-
ton is really considerably brighter
and conditions are growing more IA
vorable toward an early reOpening Of
the Stock Exchange. AS I have al
ready stated in these and other ad.
vices, this should be accomplished or
a restricted basis and by gradual op-
erations. The dangers of foreign sell
ing have greatly diminished.
THE effects of the war have beer
largely discounted in the money mar
ket and the foreign exchange marke
will soon be upon more satisfactor,
basis The credit situation has beer
greatly improved. Liquidation ha'
heer exhaustive Values have ALREADY