The Birmingham age-herald., 1914-06-15

ing to say that this movement undoubted- ly reflects opinion in Europe that one or the early effects of the new law will De the exportation of large amounts of gold On the other hand. almost all of those or whom Inquiry was made intimated that 1t was possible that this European impress sion may account for the unusually heavy exportation of gold. Yet no one would positively assert this to be so.
 Apparently the United States is buying heavily of the commodities produced Tn countries across the sea. and this is pre- sumed to account for some of the move ment of gold. It is thought that possibly the statement which has come from Wash ington at the beginning of the new fseai year will contain a somewhat unfavor- able foreign trade statement for May ana June. This undoubtedly will be attributed to the effect of the new tariff law
 Agreement on One Point
 Upon one factor of the situation the best authorities in the financial district are agreed-they are persuaded that al though the visible or apparent interna- tional trade balance for the fiscal year which is to end on the 18th of this month may reach large figure-Sooo.VU'oo or possibly more-yet there is no doubt that now the international trade balance IS really against the United States and or very large amount. There is no way of determining the various items which en- ter into the invisible or unrecorded inter national trade transactions. They can only be estimated The indications are plentiful that holders of American se- curities who live beyond the sea continue to sell these securities in considerable amounts That would create a trade bal ance against the United States of which no accurate record could be made. There appears to be some reason for suspecting that some of the European countries are withdrawing their investments in Ameri- can properties which are industrial in character.
 The chief visible and recorded reason for the heavy movement of gold or for conditions which make those heavy move ment possible is to be discovered in the plethora of money in the United States. When those who lend money seek to lend
 it as the banks are now doing, not utilz- ing it in the form of permanent financing, but for short-time obligations, and at very
 low rates, it is inevitable that conditions arise which make favorable moment for the exportation of gold.
 Funds continue 10 come from the in- teriorsto New York in very large amounts, showing that money Is plentiful in other parts of the country and is seeking such rates as the New York money market may provide This was a condition which those who drafted the new national banl.- ing law hope to end, or greatly dimit, when that law Is in operation. But al- though the law will be in full operation probably before the summer ends, certain ly early in the fall. yet there are no in- dications that it will serve greatly to pre- vent the flow of money from the interior to the chief money market of the United States.
 This plethora of money is commonly as- serted by Financial authorities to be one of the chief reasons for the heavy ex- portations of gold at this time
 A little later when the harvesting of crops begins, and the early movement o1 crops to the markets is under way. there | is likely to be some hardening of the rates 1 for money. The authorities in Washing l ton hove recently intimated that should 1 the nHw banking law go into effect wher 1.-the h1rvests are at their height there neec i be nD apprehension of tight money mar kets since it will be within the ability O l the treasury department to provide fund'
 in plenty at that time should they b' needed.
 The Wheat Situation
 1 The promise of a great harvest of whea has. it is understood led already to tn, execution of contracts for the future de livery of this product for exportation Presumably the United States is to hav' l the largest surplus of wheat we hay,
 held in many years. This will find a read,
 market in Europe, and the belief is strong
 that exportation of wheat in large