East Oregonian : E.O. (Pendleton, OR) 1888-current, 1914-12-05
LONG WAR POSSIBLE

(Summary OF an address before
the Academy OF Moral and Political
Science in Paris by Leroy Beaulieu,
/ editor OF Il Esonomiste Francais.D
The allies can draw upon a popu-
lation Of S2l, 600 GOO. or counting
India and the colonies, upon popu-
lation Of 5000 600. The popula-
tion OF Germany and Austria Hun
gary is about lie. 900. 000. Thus
there is already a population of about
$4,000, 900. one-half OF the human
race. participating in the war. But
besides the belligerents there are the
neutral countries which have mobil-
lied in order to protect themselves. or
with view to eventual aggression,
Italy. Sweden. Roumania, Holland
and Switzerland another 10000, 900
of people who are spending extrsordi-
nary sums on armaments in time Of
peace
Obligatory service extends in
France To all men of 90 TO As years
of age and owing to the fact that in
the last twenty years the population
Of France has been fairly stationary,
while that OF Germany has grown
rapidly. the French army is more
nearly equal in size to the German ar
my than the present populations. OF
SO O0O 900 TO 66.0O0,O00 would sug-
gest. The real proportion, in fact
for men Of fighting age Is S9 for
France against SO for Germany, say
$500, 900 against 100000. Russia,
with III. 100000, and Great Britain
and her selfgoverning colonies, with
100000 can increase their forces in
the field to a far greater extent and
with far less sacrifice than Germany
and Austria.
Is it possible to carry on war with
the whole adult male population Of
military age in the field? This was
done fifty years ago by Paraguay in a
war lasting several years against the
Argentine Republic; It was accom-
plished again by the Beers in their
war against Great Britain in 1899 to-
1902: It was accomplished again in
the two recent Balkan wars by Ser
via. Bulgaria. Turkey and Greece, a.
prodigious effort.
Thus experience proves that a war
which arms the whole population of
military age Is possible, and may last
a long time. II Is more a question OF
psychics than of physics. But how
can a nation. deprived OF its com
merce and Of means Of disposing OF
its industrial products, maintain such
a war? II IS a problem which has
seemed insoluble TO many. Neverthe-
less, IL IS capable OF practical So
luton. The absolutely indispensable
industries can be carried on. though.
of course. on a reduced scale. Boys,
old men and women replace the men.
Thus the vintage is proceeding in
the Midi, though 1t will be prolonged
owing to the want Of men and horses,
with the assistance it should be add
cd. Of many Spanish laborers.
Germany finds her commerce more
or less in state of blockade. and
she may find a good deal of difficult
ty in obtaining from abroad such
raw materials as copper. nickel, pc
troll rubber. wool. cotton and jute,
which are urgently needed for the
manufacture OF guns. munitions. ac-
coutrements, etc. But with such neu-
trail kingdoms on the frontier as
Roumania, Italy. Switzerland, Hol-
land, Denmark and with the Baltic
sea more or less controlled by the
German fleet, these difficulties and
the problem of buying additional
food supplies from abroad may cas-
lily be exaggerated.
But so long as the population Of
Germany is united by military ardor
and national sentiment regarding the
war as just and holy, it is not likely
to be reduced by starvation.
There is no economic or physical
impossibility in a prolonged
ed duration OF the war. If there are
no decisive military events, one may
very we'll look forward to a war last
ing six months perhaps longer