The Washington times., 1914-10-25
THE NEXT HOUSE.

Ill MIA lloSOL.
Nobody has had the hardihood to
assume that the Democrats would
carry the next House of Representa-
lives by anything like the majority
they hold now. Four months ago,
indeed, Democrats were plenty who
would have been glad of any guar
antee that they would control the
House and retain any majority at
all in the Senate.
That was at the period when
Democratic fortunes were about
touching their low ebb. The Ad-
ministration's policv in Mexico was
subject to insistent criticism, and
Mexico then looked like the biggest
thing on the world-map. Business
was not good, and the country's
great crop was getting ready for
the reapers under conditions that
seemed to assure that it would sell
at very low figures. On the other
side, the cost of living was not be-
ing reduced to an extent appreciable
by the mass of people; the foreign
trade situation was bad; and IN
general it was a time of very real
concern for the dominant party.
From the beginning of the war in
Europe matters began looking up
for the Democracy. The ancient
theory that the Democratic party
"never could have luck on its side"
has received series of terrific jolts
from that day to this.
Take for instance the effect OF
the war on the country's crop. There
was a record-breaking cotton yield
ct the South, and an utterly un-
precedented wheat production at the
North. Under the old rule Of Dem
ocratic luck, wheat ought to have
lost it's market and been worth
| about 40 cents a bushel, while cot
ton should have gone to Is cents
the pound. The result would have
been prosperity for the South, where
the Democrats had nothing to gain
and nothing to lose; depression for
the North, where the Republicans
had everything to gain and the
Democrats everything to lose. The
outcome of such a condition would
have been a Republican House.
But that wasn't what happened.
The depression came to the section
that is sure to go Democratic,
whether or no; the prosperity came
to the region where the Democrats
would have been sure to lose With
out it. 1t isn't worth while to try
going back Of the returns; wheat at
S1.1O to S1.25 is vindication enough
for the party in power-in the coun-
try whose barns are full of wheat.
So the Democrats have prosperity
working for them in the Middle
West where they must win if they
win at IL. Of course, they are not
responsible for the big wheat crop
or the big cotton crop. No more
are they responsible for the good
wheat price or the bad cotton price,
AS politics goes, they get the bene-
fit of one and the blame of the
other: and it falls out that Demo
cratic luck has been reinstated in a
! fashion that not even the best tradi-
ticrs of the Republican old school
could have improved.
AS to general business depres-
sion, the Democrats claim absolu-
ton on the ground that not even
their craftsmanship could be expect
ed to withstand the effects of a
worldwide catastrophe. They didn't
make the war; they get its benefits
where it has brought benefits, and
they evade responsibilities for its
/ unfortunate results.
With election a fortnight ahead
then. the political mathematicians
are figuring the Congressional pros
poets, and the results are doubtless
tc some extent suggestive of the
general situation. Thus the New
York World. in cooperation with q
group of leading papers In various
sections, has surveyed the genera
political field. and presents today the
estimate Of the next House baseC
thereon. The figures follow:
Dcms. Reps Props. Dbtfl
Present House. 2So 127 18
Next House,. 227 Il" II 10
Summarizing, the World con.
cludes that the Democrats will con,
troll the next House by majority
over all opposition of not less thar
rineteen, and possibly as high al
forty.
In the Senate it finds that where
as now there are fifty-one Demo
Gratis and forty-five Republicans, tn,
new Senate is likely to number fifty
four or fifty-fve Democrats and for
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