The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1914-06-21
Export Doubts if 1t Is
Worth While as a
Business Proposition,
Beeause Its Mantle
nance Cost VIII Be
$22,OOO,OOO a Year
n, ,u,uIrs ruEDERICk CARTER

tp .. '.t end OF 1913 the outlay on
,n,. r... taking footed up s31i,726.1l7
~, ... wn the job Is finished 1t will
have .. according To present esti-
macs .3.i.uOO. 000. or say s375 for
Zach u... woman and child in the coun-
.,, is more than the nine other
pr........ waterways Of the word. in
.ull- ur Sucz Canal and the two
cana. . SUIT Ste Marie, have cost.
tn, .r.uyajiun scheme will absorb
n'n,r u IONS. 10 which .lust be added
,hr D... 90 maintenance and operation.
T., mates submitted to the New York
rblm.... uf commerce by its committee
IN f.r. 90 commerce in February. 1912.
fX .u ..r.-' IN bonds issued to build the
cana. l. Ell uOnOO0 Il year: upkeep.
up,,H. ..H- and contingencies, 900. 900:
total SO 500 uUu a year. This does not
l,YH. psu.i~uu for amortization Of
l.na- which would require an addi-
.op.. S. ,uu ou0 a year for fifty years
MAXIM I'd -'Ind total uf S22.00O.0OO a
wear . Joe. derived from the revenues of
'hc ,. in order to place /, on the
has, OF commercial enterprise paying
isovu Nay This includes nothing for
rrpn, lu. the benefits popularity ex-
II DO. ANAL may bc assumed to be ac-
cepra... IN leu II cash revenue.
So iHr as published records disclose
no unr teens 20 have thought OF the en-
p.d,u,y Of iuVcsti ting the CONNER
,al prospects of the canal while the
Undertaking was under consideration
Search through several ponderous vol
umes "f reports Of canal hearings be-
fore Congressional committees reveal
jus, two pages of vague generaliza tons
On IN. commercial outlook. including a
summary uf thir,y-three estimates OF
possible traffic. These ranged from
iooooo tons Il year. the estimate Of
Joseph Nimmu. Jr. then chief of the
bureau uf statistics of the Treasury De-
par,m'u' to- 1859. 900 tons. The high
estimates We're I'll from Fren, sources
he highest being that Of Bunau-N arilla
The French. IL VIII be remembered had
canal concession To sell and Bunau-
Nar.lA was trying To sell +; for them.
Congress. apparently was not in
tercsi'd IN the possible commercial use
fuln'ss Of the canal. All the lawmakers
wanted To- know was whether a canal
could be- built; and IL so, where. All
out was about the relative merits Of
rival routes and the probable cost. Not
until sl.326.176 Of Government money
had been spent in four years studying
ensineering features exclusively, and
not until third canal commission had
been appointed. did it occur to any one
that there might. or could. or should he
an economic side TO the question.
Finally. the Walker commission on its
own responsibility assigned to Prof.
Emory r. Johnson of the University
Of Pennsylvania the task of dealing with
the commercial prospects of the canal
Prof. Johns N adopted the French plan
of assuming that entrances and clear
ancrs Of vessels represented the COM
mercc Of ports under consideration The
arrNa, and departure of four thousand
ton vessel would swell the entrances
and cl'arances Of each port visited eight
thousand tons. 4 voyage of one vessel,
IN which a number of stops We're made,
would make formidable volume OF
traffic on paper. BY this method. for
example, lunta Arenas was credited
with AN annual commerce of $4,000
tons, though actual impor and en-
ports IN that particular year were only
l20OO tons.
Even with this favorable showing
the Walker commission in its pre-
lmnary report would venture no fur
Their than To- say:
The commerce OF western South
America with Europe will continue to
pass through the strait of Magellan
or 10 round Cape Horn; the trade Of
In r1
tralla will keep to the Cape of Good
Hope route, and the traffic between the
EASTERN scaboard and the Philippines
and southern China will remain tribu-
iary 20 the Suez route IL the charges
Tor Ia" Panama Canal are made greater
man the saving to be effected by using
that waterway"
What the saving" effected by the
rdhdiua route amounts to will presently
appear
Inc French Panama Company in De-
''mh'r l>HS, made Congress a PROPOSE
lion showing how nice it would be for
Us To- help out its hopelessly involved
S'hrlu" The Frenchmen assured Con-
sFeS> that as a commercial venture
lanama Was all right. though no par
ocular. were given. on this lucid and
"NN'n uS showing the Government UNI
''fi""H 100 build the canal. This may
.'und ." hyptrbole but the sober facts
ere 49, shcd by official records TO be
'1hi any good reference library.
lIpI nnsun. who made the original
''mm' I'D report for the Walker com
m.SN.'l conceded by the New York
nam 80 Commerce committee mem
TONED 20 Dee the best authority on
'"h'il' l'pf, Johnson has revised his
,N"ih'i's ward from time TO time, his
''eS' a'Ars published a few weeks
"so, i.. NIX prospective traffic at TO-.
''''. -. Do increase to 1900, O00 by
49,. .'ni JOhnson's estimate Is MOI
"n'S u" most authoritative but II Is the
"'S"' '..'u any source worthy of seri-
Jus '' ration, 1t Is so high, indeed
mat scoffed at by shipping folk
~ accept has figures, therefore, is tc
YAK, No. most optimistic possible view
'h'n1 prospects.
Ken million tons seem a vast guam.
wy 'h.D compared with other traffic
movements. when II shrinks into in.
T-".',' 'h''. Why four years ago the
az" l... central Railroad alone han
u,c' '"IF nd a half times that amount
"' ~. More than double that
S'' COY rattle passes through the
,h" 'Ha' annually. Assuming that
''S '"uc materiallzes, IL would be
N..H .