The Washington times., 1914-11-01
ELECTIONS DUE TO
DEVELOP SURPRISES
oIiticaI Sachems Expect Some
UpsetS in Calculations in
Many States tuesday.
Continued from First Page.)


Continued from First Page)
" lere red-headed Victor Murdoch is
b. King a swift pursuit of the Senator
u p. Broadly speaking. however, the
B u Moose vote will fall heavily. The
pgressive party strength in the House
IsuRlly reckoned at is. In the next
House, some estimates give it as low
a. two and at best it will not exceed
lnore than or Z. This falling off of
n Progressive party vote is going to
Fl II Democratic candidates for the
4 use and Senate. 1t Is hard to tell,
hC wever. where the Bull Moose vote
which quits that parry will 60. Some
pi IL will go to the Republicans, some
wl go to the Democrats, some stay
at home and some of it go to the Social
lists. But in what proportions the other
BIZ rites are to draw from the Bull
loose strength is problematical.
Bull Moose Vote Drops.
The Bull Moose strength fell about 65
pc cent in the Maine election. Some
R"publican leaders think that fits aver
ale decline the country over will be
= eater than that. But this is doubt
cent from the 1912 figures. the House
" ould swing to the Republicans provid-
tnE the men who went to the Bull
pr "ose from the Republican party two
S,ars ago should return to 1t. and not
vote elsewhere or stay at home and re-
fuse to vote at all.
The uncertainty about the Progressive
party voteis only one Of the features
pf The campaign which make reckoning
pn the outcome difficult. Important is
su.s have entered the situation in nu-
~ rous States. Among these are pro-
hI ition or some form Of the liquor
bs le, the religious issue, woman suf-
F. &c, and labor troubles. .--
resident Wilson is stronger than llis
r. -ty. The result Is that the Demo
cratic campaign rests almost entirely on
d IA. The Democratic campaign man
ement is basing its fight TO regain
c" Itrol of House and Senate almost
oily on the plea that the country
@, hit to stand by Wilson. Unquestion-
a Y with a President in the White
~ use who had less of a following, the
nocratic party this year would be
b. ten. The bigger the Democratic vote
az. the larger Its margin of control in
t. House, the more political credit will
J.. given the President. Under such
c. umstances, the Democratic party
G lcedes a denomination in 1916 to Mr..
n son. All other aspirants for the
b nination have abandoned hope.
n the other hand, it is completely
ertain who will be nominated by
T., Republicans for President in 1916.
len the possibility that the Repub-
"ans and Bull Moose will unite on
koosevelt is now admitted to be much
smaller than it was last summer. The
r'Sult viii be that some of the Repub-
ms forced to the front by the cleo
ton this year will loom up as P-resi-
iu"ntial possibilities. If Whitman cap
res the governorship in New York,
Slo instance, he will Immediately be
rs-koned as Presidential possibility.
By Direct Vote.
This is the first general election in
which Senators will be chosen By direct
vote OF the people under the direct
ELECTIONS amendment. The Democrats
'ntrol the Senate now. That body is
i - susceptible to political changes
IN the House because only a third
| o. IT is elected every two years. 1t
lid take a political landslide to turn
The senate over to the Republicans
, body expects il. The Senate num-
b. 3 ninety-sis. The Democrats have
4 'Iy-three members out of the ninety
rs \. or a plurality OF ten over Repub-
]. ms and Progressive party men COM
b'ned. Senatorial elections are held in
thirty-one States, but in only fourteen
70 these are there any real contests.
TIE Democrats are likely to lose seats
r Colorado and Oregon, but they are
lp ely to gain more than enough to
T.ake up for such losses. Senator
{ hamberlain in Oregon, in fact, by
'ason of his personal popularity. may
b elected. The Democrats expect to
II 1t Gerard in New York. Neeley in
~ ansas, and Sullivan in Illinois, and
4 - displace three Senate Republicans,
nf nfh hA-
Fhe Republicans by no means conce6e
r. House to the Democrats. On the
r. er hand, Chairman Woods and his
Il les Of the Republican committee say
=! y will carry the House. The Demo-
II IS admit they will experience a slump
|ir the House but say they will control
|i' by 80 to 80. On the whole, the rroba-
ID .ues are the Democrats will keep con-
Il by much reduced majority. The
Z -InCcrats now have 290 members in
p use whose full strength is ABS This
p more than enough to control the
use Should the Democrats lose 73,
II republicans, Progressive party men
IL 81 independents would have the ma
- y. This is not expected to happen.
j. Eever, il is a close question whether
p VIII be to the advantage Of the Demo-
l. Is 20 keep House control in this cleo
|tvH by a narrow margin, in the
p 2hborhood Of score. insurgency
|s pug the House Democrats is growing
r. IT.. ChiesS the democratic party gets
s f majority in the House of The next
e .Sress it will find trouble at every
L % Cf the road between now and 1916.
q ie astute Republicans, in fact, say
Z best thing that could happen for
4 n Il continued Democratic control Of
4 House by narrow margin, which
" II compel the Democrats to take all
p possibility but make it difficult for
L en- 10 do anything against the Will of
Z Republicans and Bull Moose plus the
81 urgent Democratic factions
j Future of La Toilette