The Daily Missoulian. [volume] (Missoula, Mont.) 1904-1961, 1913-03-05

in other forms demanded by western
mining, agriculture, and other indus
tries, the forests would be cut off
faster thar the country's total sup
| ply. The country's total supply is be-
ing cut three times as fast as it grows.
If the government gave timber away
and the consumer got the full benefit,
the $500 a thousand gain to him would
be but a trifling part of the retail
price. 1t would not restore the cheap
lumber prices of a few years ago.
Promote M%onopolistic Control.
Years before the national forests
were set aside spectators were busy
securing the best timber lands of the
public domain. Twice as much west
ern timber is in private as in public
ownership. At any given price level
there is q certain amount of timber
that will pay the cost of cutting. The
rest is not on the market because to
cut and manufacture it would cost
more than it would sell for.
Privately-oWned timber involves
carrying charges to the owners-inter-
est on capital tied up, taxes, and cost
Of protection on fire risk. Private
owners are, therefore, under pressure
to sell and extfnguish these charges.
They also have, as a rule, the timber
that would naturally be first to come
in demand. They saw to that when
they got it.
But, at a given price level, there is
always a limit to the amount Of TIM
Der hat is on the market. The owner
will not go beyond a certain point.
When that point is reached he prefers
to hold, not manufacture, his timber.
After lumber prices fell in 1907 many
lumber mills operated at a loss, rather
than shut down altogether. The own
ers had miscalculated the demand. but
having set UP their mills could not
shut Town altogether without incur
ring greater losses than those involved
in running. The output in 1912 in the
west was only about 60 per cent of the
capacity of the mills. This is what
the lumber trade Know as "over-pro-
duction."
The consumer thinks there is not
production enough, because lumber
costs him more than it did 10 years
ago. But the forests that supplied
him 10 years are gone. Though
there is still plenty of timber left, it
is less accessible and more expensive
to get on the market.
If the government cuts its stumpage
price in half, more mills viii be To-
Gated on the forests, but fewer will
operate outside. The cut from gov
eminent land takes the place of part
of the cut from private holdings. In
effect the government Would pay a
bounty to Undue operators to cut it's
trees instead of their own.
Part of this bounty would be a pure
gift to the operators. Men who find
it to their advantage to buy national
forest timber at the present prices
would make more money. To the eX-
tent that the cut from government
land took the place of the cut from
private holdings, the bounty would
represent the cost of bringing about
his substitution. It would be the in
ducement held out to ecu the re-
versal of the order dictated by bust
ness conditions. This would inevitably
accentuate the condition known to the
lumber trade as "over-production."
Those operators who are now break
ing even or running at a loss or With
curtailcd output would, of course, if
they could, withdraw from the market
and let the cut from government lands
tax the place of the cut from their
own holdings. If they all could do
this, the consumer would not be bene-
fitted at all. But not all could. They
have incurred business obligations
which they must meet, The weak
ones would be shaken out. The value
of stumpage would decline. The strong
ones would seize the opportunity to
add to their holdings. The field for
speculative buying of timber lands
would be wide open again.
Gradually a condition of equilibrium
would be restored. The surplus OF
stumpage artificially created would be
absorbed, partly by cutting, partly by
speculative acquisition and withdrawal
Private timber would be concentrated
in fewer hands. Public timber would
have diminished. The chance for mon
opoly profits ard artificial control O
terially greater. Then the consumer
would pay the scnre-With usury.
The forest service is selling timber
!, as fast as this can be done without
sacrificing the interests of the public
l 1t is making every effort consistent
f over-ripe stumpage on the forests and
1 bring the annual cut up to a fair por-
ton of the yield. 1t is advertising