The evening times. [volume] (Grand Forks, N.D.) 1906-1914, 1913-02-15
A Gamblers Chance to Win

nc goes into the market for insur-
ance. Could the underwriters posi-
Oily Know whether or not 1t would
RAIN? Certainly not. But they could
easily determine the probability OF
rain interfering with the merchants
profits. The complete and accurate
records which are kept make it easy
to figure on the weather,
suppo that for a certain day, say
the 18TH of the month. 1t is found
that in the last fifty years it has
stormed twenty-five times. The prob.
aoantS OF storm is then forty.four pc,.
cent: Now. If the insurance desired
is $4,000. the only way to determine
me rate to charge is the relationship
tween ilfty and twenty-five. adding
IN inc proper profit for the Insurance..
So without adding the expense or
profit the cost of the risk would be-
22.5oths of $4,000 or $4,000.
Wiil the sun rise on time tomorrow
morning? The chance that it will NOT
is Infinitely small. Will there be n
heavy snow at Mexico city at noon
triday?' The chance that thcro viii
be Is too small to be computed. There
are TWO extre'nes--thc practically GER
ta.n II INC almost impossible. Re-
risks that can be insured.
me questions entering into tho
PROBABILITY OF the c~ontinuan.c of hu-
man lie cannot he solved for any civ.
en- individual. and vet. by foilowin.
the statistics covering many wears and
q great number. OF cases. the insur-
ancc companies are taking scarcely
any risk. The question resolves IT,
sen into a problem Of insuring enough
cases 10 strike the average which x
lists at some point. And there is whore
the law of chance enters in.
The law may be explained as fol.
lows: IT an event can occur in only
one Of IL number Of ways. equally like.
y TO occur. the probability Of it's ham
pening at all il the sum of scvnral
probabilities. Thus q coin can fail
either head or tail. therefore tho
chance ct its falling head is one.half
Of it's falling tail is onc-half. the
sum being one. "'
100 were black and 100 were white
were placed in a paper bag. to ioe
Drawn out In pairs. According tn tho
law of chance there was an y nrnl,.
ABILITY that Of the 100 pairs
five would be black, twenty.f five would
oe white and fifty would bc black and
Whl'c. In several hundred trials this
was proved to he worry nearly the case.
IN several thousand trials an exact
ra!io would be likely to develop.
Should a mar cast a dice nm in.
definite number Of times he co,,id car-
tatnly expect the acc to turn IN oncc
IN SIX times. In fifty throws. or even
l.ooo. there might be quite a varia-
non from the expected result. hut m
nnnite number Of throws would make
rectly. spP'S or
Inc law IF probabilities is used er-
,snsiNeiy, by experts in games Of
s"Ines. ~ = often been said that
nas,nner IN such 4 game oftener
the case if he is playing seams ox'
perts. even though the Tame is a hsn.
l3tely square. Many players adhere
closely tn the law Of probabijitieS and
recognize the chance If ohtairinr -
certain hand and playing il to tho lest
advantage. "' "e's
~ You have ever INDUCED in tho
game OF don'ino"s you will remember
.nat Tor certain combinations there
are required q few pieces Of certain
LUIS haus NO others will do. Your
cnancc Of getting the one You want.
providing o have to 20 to the ..honc.
yard ~ dependent on the number nut.
tne particular combination which or
!s.s on TIE hoard at the time, as well
~ On tho denomination Of the pieces
already drawn. -
mother commonplace application
-! . me lay OF chance is given by /"
ute OF ra,'ronds. A man in 4 certain
T wishes to leave 1T u, given time.
ihere arc trains on three ronds leaving
AZ precisely the same timc-a, c0ndi-
tion rarely. il ever. existent. rho
chances OF his leaving town nrt three
.old. The probability Is that oil OF tho
,Iaihs Will run. Still more probably
~ mo superstition that ut least two of
mem VIII run. while the idea that mono
DC Negligible.