The times dispatch. [volume] (Richmond, Va.) 1903-1914, 1913-05-04
But Business Has Dark Days
S Ahead Because Credit Is
Overstrained.
TIME FOR CONSIDERATION
Wall Street Still STEPPED in
Gloom, but Decided Change
Seems Near.
BY n. c. FORBES.

Wall Street Is stepped IN gloom but
q believe y decided change Is near
The dreaded European conhsgra-
ton" IS most unlikely to occur
War between tho United States and
Japan need not be taken into reckon
ings, The Mexican situation 1. oc.
casioHns more concern in international
banking circles. for stability there ap.
pears extremely uncertain.
Domestic politics should shortly
quiet down Tariffwise. the worst 1.
already known and largely II not
wholly discounted; developments can
lbe only for the better. from the bust
ness viewpoint.
Agricultural prospects are brighten.
Ing daily. More attention Will be de-
voted hereafter to crops than to poll
tics, And nature usually deals bounti-
fully with this favored land
Should the Interstate Commerce Com
mission allow the railroads serving ths
Eastern half OF the country TO ad.
vance freight rates per cent as de-
sired. the whole financial and invest
ment tide probably would be turned
causing, later revival in general
trade My own opinion Is that the
railroads case VIII be properly handled
this time. and that they will be able
10 convince the regulators that a mod
est increase In freight charges Is nee
essary II the development OF Amer!ca's
scarcely scratched resources Is not TO
be gravely retarded
l have been bitterly condemned for
having warned readers of these ar
tcles that a marked recession in bust
ness doomed ahead. Certain critics
went the length OF declaring that such
sentiments could have been prompted
by bribery, by the acceptance OF graft
from stock market bears
We'll, what do these charitabiy- mind
cd people now think of themselves and
or recent commercial happenings? Is
the forecast proving wrong or right?
Is no decline in activity creeping into
view? Are no unpleasant Incidents
cropping up?
Commercial failures have been alb
normally heavy and threaten to be
worse before the year ends Bank
clearings are falling Off week after
week--the total of the week Just
ended cDun's Confpllation) was only
se.74o,o0o.ooo as contrasted with ss-
coSo0o.oo0 year ago and approx
mately ss.ooO,oo0,OOo In 1911. Watch
also, the course of our oversee trade
and II there he no shrnkage in ex-
ports. present signs will be falsihed.
There is another ugly phase Of the
outlook for American trade. one that
,prudent students cannot ignore
National bank loans continue to ex-
pand at the rate OF $1,000, 600 every
business day. despite n serious depls
zion or the amount OF cash held by
these institutions During the two
months from February 4 10 Apr;l 4
loans Increased $4,000. 300 in face OF a
cash loss OF si500O.oOo. As compared
with the returns OF year ago loans
have been inflated s296. 600 600 not
only without single dollar additional
cash but In spite OF cash shrinkape
of fully $4,000 300
New York banks have pulled in ys,
and are urging their country CORES.
pondcnts To do the same bu. slth no
success Optimism IS a virtue bu. 8.
may, under certain circumstances. lead
business man over prec!p!ce
II disaster befali any regular reader
o! these articles because OF or.r-.r.
tension % MS credit. he vii have only
himself TO blame
The banks simply must ezil hai,
iheF cannot 20 On weakening raet-
portion moria .tt4r raor,r :, -ae-
as'e oe@h doaaz % s10-s ,-zz ysa-
4h%F cS:&-9i - 49, "t.g .Ivs 20
-na-s = 80 A-t s.-. y ,-.
-1&1r u ta@-1-z1-+Ety ~. ,.z-h..
"a --l- 2, tzc=:J- 10y .zTs .c,z.s5
cgzz.-oss xtsz
rs s-1siiEl- o-Es-sI. --1r t.-r-.
= 3 4
Hs1s-1. 49, ~ ~ +z-6 az ..re
-aEf ~s-- -. 49, = cs...- -.s-,,-
49, a5cs- EG-.1-- 80. -Fy-.. =.
Ezl-s--z t- - $3.50 ..s- y.
LIT ise ~ t-su <. .@.lt 2. mr.
a--aa- ~ = -.s. ~.s-..- ;.
Fs--1s r+itg = rrao: III -.eet..y
t-; t--@E -. -ent:at.. .. -,
tx
- te:e- .-.,2 4. ~: !: 81, xo.,s
$50 t5sta ~4-s5 .zys 1ro-gh. o
zsszttzfi-g crash Co-rs-ce call.
- -zsa zuo :ae taax. could no, ~
f-rpAsc snogyr 70 finance 2 BON
H%thsr a.smsi ssT. this Roweve-.
aftef fes5ing T. ponde.!nc i, ana d..
e-sSin2 d; Win your banker you VII
ne ia much sOunder position man
yoQr rival "ho has been reading
notn'7s hut sunshine" articles who
has been led to believe thai ,wen.y.
four karat prosperity was assured, Who
mas borrowed unrestrainedly Win
never thought OF possible sudden
Tightening OF the rein or A luli IN ina
demand for h!s wares
Prophecies are dangerous Yet ! am
70 venture one namely: The blues,
SPOT IN the country at this moment
an street VIII De more cheerful sew.
eral months from now and those busi
l.
mit!gated optimism now rules viii tha,
h+ having taste Of Wall Street.s
GUINNESS
he bottom has already been reached
IN the general bond market. believe
some readjustment % silt-edged prlces
remains to be effected. but mos, ise,,cs
appear TO be bedrock
Have you noticed that sho,. ,.rr
2AGotes have been put out instead .,
Bones during the last week? IN lao
sundays Issue the statement was mad.
that borrowers were going 70 ".tr!La
that they would not consent Ia mos
the terms demanded by buyers o
bonds. but that temporary Nnanc.n,
would be resorted to IN the hope OF
more propItious market FOR bonds I,
the not distant future There has boz.
prompt confirmation OF the strike
int,mation
Stocks look cheaper than they A.,
There are certain indications. howeve
which still impel caution. Selling LA
come from one or two very influentis