The evening times. [volume] (Grand Forks, N.D.) 1906-1914, 1913-02-11
III ilmSl s. l.ullcr1nnl

Annually FOR ,se last twelve Years
nave '!opHa III" major lcasur teams
M.i,i ala i':ra ~ iindins how ;i,cy prob
aiiN would finish. In Sulnv seasons
III" taSN is romparatiN viN easy. Last
Nr;!t. VITA The exception q: tie i'ilila-
4,'phiu Nationals. d team that was
"r, rNr,: and te!i far. and Washington.
which moved up suddenly. The clubs of
i"th iii" American and National
leagues finished approximately where
'htN sho.ltl have done.
, This season the TASK Of doping the
teams with any chance of accuracy is
ii s%iupCndous ono. NON given Il ;"am
"i sAl" ritnred players. With Il nam
aS"r -. known ability. and , Smatt.r-
ins "f youngsters who ral, hc figured
"n iivr minor league performances.
&h1 one who studies baseball vlpsclA
Faa 'dir'!atc with ii fair degree of ac-
crf'itH .iust about what percentage of
games ;hat team should Win.
S'S New Leaders This Year.
ms season Nc face IN" task ui pre-
~'iirtins-tnd trying to ttcur,-pn Si>
f.u'" WITH NV Managers. ON twelve
ri sixteen iuhs ihat viii I.. shaken
/" Pic. tcfor" the ,,l8yin: season
starts and ;"n ol Them TIA, viii start
WY. practically nov lin"ups.
nd.r the circumstances | find il,
ralhrr casN to pick the first and sot-
ond clubs "f each Observation-Disclosures easy
- pick the calender in the American
ana after that on. is dealing with
SO many unknown and uncertain
Quantities that tn. task seems an i'm.
possibility.
The PROBABILITIES of tho new man.
ag"Ts handling their teams w~li is in
'ist ! Il i'ls problem. hui fortunately
sFfrE man is 4 known quantity. And
IN '!lis resrec; tho owners have made
la strong hid {" imnrove baseball. i
Il" not think that rvcr before there
""ft sixteen as good managers in
'cil,.lS. of clubs.
iile probabilities of their success or
faitiirr this system | use is rather com.
ilcateu | figure the comparative
Value Of Zach position in defensive
Work. hen figure the ficldins value
ol men as individuals. in their value as
hatterS. as has. n and as I'm
SIDE g In this il is necessary to
understand the men themselves and
Know whether or not th.y will play
good bali in the club to which they
are assigned.
Mitchell To show Improvement.
foF instance. knowing Mike Mitch
eli MAS disguised with Cincinnati one
would have been forced To reduce his
value in every department if he re-
mailicd d Red. AT Chicago il is GER
tam that. during the early part Of the
season at least. he will play even a
ut above his speed. Had Tinker and
h,Ners remained On tho same club /
Would nave cut at least eight points
from hoth Now | figure them close
TO their best. detracting q bit for the
managerial strain which Will hamper
their individual work.
IN figuring catchcrs n calculates
ON IN" probable number OF games the
individual will work and reduces TINS
10 m. composite value. For instance.
.Nr"A"r probably will catch eighty
games Bresnahan fifty. Eeednam
twelve. and the rest doubtful. with the
"tl;t.ces faroring Archer. In pitching
tna must figure the probable number
Of M each man will win-Walsh
10. t>anse %, White is. and SO on.
Having calculated each mans valu.
TO the team and reduced this to team
values. I make up another table,
showing the value of the players in
each position in comparison with the