The Birmingham age-herald., 1913-08-01
BIRMINGHAM TRUST
GENERAL LETTER ON
s. TRADE CONDITIONS
No Real Pinch in Money
Market-The Central
West in Best
Condition

The Birmingham Trust and Savings
eompanys general letter on trade condi-
tiors, including a business forecast for
the month of August, is in part as fol-
lows:
The usual midsummer dullness has laid
Its hold upon business generally and
things have quieted down considerably.
The decline in business which has taken
place during the past three weeks is not,
however, the same sort of decline which
was in evidence during the several weeks
previous. For a time, uncertainty about
tariff and currency legislation, the upset
condition of Europe and the threatening
labor situations in this country, coupled
with an abnormally tight money market,
caused a nervousness and unsettlement
in business which had threatening
aspect. The business continued to decline
through this period. That the more re-
cent falling off in business is the usual
midsummer quieting is evidenced by the
Improvement in sentiment, the slight up
turn in both stock exchange and board
of trade circles and the somewhat in
creasing activity in financial dealings.
Money remains tight but there is no
real pinch and the quietlng influence now
affecting business will probably continue
In a measure until the early fall
One of the causes of the recent tight
money market which has received but
little consideration is the very large mar
keting of last years grain crops good
percentage of the entire crop was held
for better prices and nearly all of this
has been marketed within two months.
AS the old grain has now been sold and
the money returned to circulation 1t will
be easier to finance the new crop as 1t
comes. Money will probably be close.
however, until the late fall or early VIM
ter. In the meantime, sufficient money
will be available for the legitimate needs
of business and to take care of some
increase in stock exchange transactions
Our enormous foreign trade for the
fiscal year 1928 just ended has created
one of our best assets. Our merchandise
exports amounted to 2466 million dollars
while our imports were only 1913 millions
leaving a favorable balance of trade of
65S millions compared with 551 millions the
previous year Our net exports of silver
totaled 80 million dollars and of gold
nearly nine millions so that the favorable
credit balance created by the years move
ment was 692 million dollars compared
with 57 millions the previous year The
year 1907-0S, when our imports were un-
usually low on account of bad business
conditions in this country. is the only
fiscal year which has shown a better
net balance. The favorable balance that
year was 6os millions. Our exports of all
the principal crops except cotton showed
increases for the year The most notable
decline in imports was the decrease in
sugar shipments which was probably oc-
easioned by importers awaiting tariff ac-
ton. great decrease was shown in our
meat and provision exports for the year
Consultation with leading steel inter-
ests fails to bring out any definite ideas
in regard to the steel industry beyond the
next few weeks. Orders already booked
are enough to make it reasonably sure
that most mills will operate practically
at capacity for the balance of the year.
The recent great activity in steel, it is
believed by some interests, indicates a
probable lull during the last few weeks
of this year and the early part of 1914 The
pig iron market is still uncertain al
though the production continues heavy.
The monthly output for the first half of
the year averaged 2.725.000 tons. The
production for the remainder of the year
may fall considerably under these figures
and still be sufficient to set a new pro-
duction record.
Building operations in the principal
cities showed a decline for June as COM
pared with last year of more than 10 per
cent. The cities showing a loss included
New York and Chicago while gains were
made in Philadelphia, Boston, Pttsburg
and st. Louis. Otusde of New York city,
new building operations for the country
for the first six months of this year ex-
ceeded any previous showing.
THE entire output of grains for the
country will be sufficiently above the
average this year to tack care of the in
crease in population. There is a present
prospect for ASS 100000 bushels of winter
wheat 1900 900 bushels of spring wheat,
1900, 600 bushels of corn, 600, 600 900 BUSH
els of oats 165, 600 bushels of barley,
39, 600 600 bushels of rye. 21.000,000 bushels
of rice, $4,000 600 pounds of tobacco and
$40 100000 bushels of white potatoes 1t is
| early to estimate the cotton crop, but
present indications are that 1t will run be-
tween 100000 and 900 bales. There
may be some deterioration, but 1t is safe
| to assume that this years cotton crop
will be the largest crop ever produced
with the exception of that of 1911.
! THE best general conditions are found
| in the central western states and on the
Pacific coast, while the poorest conditions
are still in the southeastern states Con-
ditions win be greatly improved through
out the south If the cotton crop reaches
picking time without material damage"
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