The Brattleboro daily reformer. (Brattleboro, Vt.) 1913-1955, 1913-07-19

Weather Forecasts viii Be
Possible Months Ahead.
TESTS WILL TAKE YEARS.
Professor Frost, Director of Yerkes
Observatory, Predicts That Future
Scientists Will Be Able to Tell the
Temperature Six Months In Ad-
Vsnce-Observe Sun Spots.

Temperature Six Months In Ad-
Vance-Observe Sun Spots.
Great interest is manifested among
scientists as the result of a published
statement of Professor Edwin b. Frost,
director of the Yerkes observatory, to
the effect that it has been determined
that the solar constant" is in fact a
variable quantity and that the effect
of the change is not appreciable on
earth until as long as six months after
the change
For this reason Professor Frost is of
the opinion that eventually it may be
possible to determine general weather
conditions that far ahead-in other
words. that careful observations of So
lar conditions will indicate what con-
ditions may prevail on the earth later
In addition to the observations made
by Professor Frost similar observa-
tons have been made by Professor H.
Ii. Kimball for the government at the
station on Mount Weather.
In his statement Professor Frost de-
clares that careful observations indi-
cate that the late Professor S. F. Lang
ley placed his estimate for the amount
of heat absorption by the earth at too
high a figure.
Professor Langley's Devices.
Professor Frost in his statement
comments on the ingenious devices in
vented by Professor Langley, by which
he measured the suns heat, and on the
discoveries of G. G.. Abbott and Il. e.
Fowle, who for the past ten years
have been conducting their investiga-
lions at sea level and at Mount Whit
ney 04,500 feet and Mount Wilson
(G,000 feet. in southern California. He
goes on to say:
The most striking result of these in
vestigations is the discovery by Alb
bott and Fowle that the solar con
slant Is not constant, but a variable
lin other words, that our sun is 2
variable star like hundreds and thou
sands of others in the sky.
1T was nearly ten years ago that
these investigators found evidence that
the radiation of the sun was not steady
from day to day, and ten years OF
work has been devoted to determining
whether these apparent variation.
were really in the sun or due to er
rors of observation or to auctuation IL
the absorption by the earth's atmo
sphere. They now feel justified il
stating that these fluctuations are rea
and are in the sun itself, amounting
to 3 per cent or more in q period of
week or ten days.
Observations for sun spots hav,
now been made long enough so tina
we know that they are more numerous
every eleven years, slowly declinin,
from a maximum number to a mini
mum number about seven years late
and then rising again to a maximum
about four years after the minimum.
Importance of the Discovery.
"The Importance of this discovery O
the variation in the suns heat is prof
ably obvious to the reader The il
habitants of the earth are entirely Dc
pendent for their existence upon til
results of agricultural work, and mott
ing is more certain than that the ra
diation from the sun lies at the basi
of the principal weather elements /
the earth's atmosphere
1T should not be inferred that
sudden startling change in the sun
radiation produces an immediate effec
IN the terrestrial temperatures Th
earth's atmosphere takes up thes
changes and gradually communicate
them to the earth's surface. How 500
and to what degree remain to be il
vestigated
Continuous study, extended pc
haps over many years, will be require
to determine if these changes in r;
diation can be predicted in advanc
and If the laws can be determine
which govern them. 1t is evidently
most practical problem. touching tt
interests of every inhabitant of ii
earth"