Burlington weekly free press. [volume] (Burlington, Vt.) 1866-1928, 1913-12-11
PREDICTING THE WEATHER
FOrecaster Tells Merchants Why
Absolute Forecasts Impossible.
Deputy Collector iIadicy OF Pl"t's-
burgh VIII Speak Upon Celcbrn-
tion of Macdonough's Victory
Governor May lie Here.

Nearly 30 men heard John *. Hooper,
the local forecaster of the United states
weather service, when he addressed Tie
burlington Merchants association at us
weekly luncheon at the Hotel vermont
Thursday. He gave an interesting re-
view Of the way weather conditions are
reported and studied, and told his hearers
how the forecasts are made.
Nice-President Frank G.. Lyon an
nounced that tho speaker next Thursday
would be Deputy Collector lladley or
Plattsurgh, n. Y. who will discuss the
proposed celebration of the centenary OF
Macdonough's victory on Lake Cham
plain. at which it IS hoped to have pres
ent not only Governor Glynn, but the sec
retaries OF war and the navy and Presl-
dent Wilson. An effort wi. be made TO
have Governor Fletcher as a guest at
the luncheon next Thursda.', together with
the members OF the Vermont celebration
commission 1t was suggested In let
ter from Mr. IIadley, read by Secretary
Bingham, that the celebration might be
made influential in Keeping the army
posts on both sides Of the lake and having
them enlarged ana another matter to be
given attention will be the Hudson
Champlain waterway.
MIR HOOPERS ADDRESS.
Forecastcr Hooper said:
Mr.. President and Gentlemen of the Bur
lington Business Mems Association:
! hope we do not agree with the man
who stated that he never read the
weather predictions for two reasons. one,
,.,rl,
what you can't help. and the other is you
can never rely on a prophecy until after
it has come true, and then it's too late to
make any difference.
The systematic study OF the atmosphere
is comparatively modern institution,
although many of the facts concerning
tn" weather have been known since the
earliest times. All the civilized countries
Of the world maintain weather services,
but the oldest weather bureau in exist
ence has just celebrated its 50th annver-
sary.
American scientists Were the first to
recognize the value of n weather bureau,
but this country was only the fourth TO
authorize such an establishment IIol-
land instituted one with telegraph report
and forecasts in 1850; England followed
in 1861, and France in 1863 II is probable
the inauguration of the American service
was delayed by the Civil War because
in the early fftics Joseph Henry of the
Smithsonian institution was preparing a
wall chart showing the weather in diff
ferent cities of the country ana other
American scientists We're advocating the
establishment of such a service.
/
weather bureau dates back to 1870. The
work as originally planned was carried
on by the signal corps of the army. In
1891, the work was transferred to civil
bureau under the department of agricul-
ture, although the methods and dis
cipline are stil quasi military in char
actcr. 1t is essential that the work he
carried on with accuracy and despatch,
that all observations be taken on time,
and all warnings promptly disseminated
these things are made possible by the
military system.
The personnel of the bureau comprises
two classcs-central office and local office,
or what in military parlance would cor
respond to star and field positions
At the end OF the fiscal year of 1912, the
numerical strength of the central Office wa $
1876 while at the 200 field stations there
were Gl2 officials and assistants. making
the total number employed in the weather
bureau, sos All Of these positions except
that of the chief arc under the civil SER
vice.
INSTRUMENTS USED.
Weather forecasting is only made pos
sible by Simultaneous reports of the
weather at different points. and the sta
lions should not be many miles apart.
All of the 200 stations are provided with
the following instrumental equipment:
Barometers; several types of Their
mometers; rain guages; Instruments for
making continuous records Of the tern
perature, harometric pressure and the
relative humidity; and a meteorograph,
by means Of which there is recorded on
one sheet OF paper moved ny clockwori.
during each minute Of the day, the wind
direction and velocity, the minutes OF
sunshine and each one-hundrodth OF an
inch OF rain as It falls. I shall not at
tempt TO describe these Instruments fully,
but It Is hoped You will find the time to
visit the observatory and see for your
selves just how the weather elements are
recorded and tabuated You are always
welcome.
Please consider this as special inv-
tation. I realize the observatory IS some
what out OF the way but next summer
we shall he IN the center OF things, and if
you cannot do 50 before call upon us
when YOU inspect our student army.
Every morning at % minutes to eight,
eastern standard time, readings are made