The Birmingham age-herald., 1913-08-15

propositions involving new enterprises.
A Hopeful Sentiment
1t is spoken of as very encouraging that
Just at the time the moving and thrash
ing machines are beginning harvesting
and at time, too, when the cotton plant
ers are preparing what will probably be
one of the largest crops Of cotton the
country has ever produced. business men
in almost all parts of the country are
speaking many of them with hope, some
of them with real enthusiasm, of the out
look for the remaining months of the pres
ent calendar year. The belief appears to
be general throughout the country that
business activities in the fall of this year
and in the first winter months will be
even greater than was the case last year
A peculiar feature of this hopeful ten
deney is the fact that 1t prevails at a time
when tariff legislation is under considera-
tion business men are paying compara-
lively little heed to the tariff discussion
In certain lines of trade and manufae-
tUre some apprehension, 1t is true, does
exist but American optimism is so strong
that it is believed that no matter what
form the tariff bill may take when 1t
reaches President Wilson for approval it
will not impair American business, al
though it may change some features of it.
What the Reason Is
This comparative indifference to the
schedules of the new tariff law is be-
lieved TO be in great measure due to the
stGpendous growth of our foreign COM
merce within the past 10 years. Including
cotton, American agriculture was repre-
sented in the exports of the fiscal year
which ended June 80 by a credit of s102S,-
0O0,000, round numbers. Gradually, but
surely, our expectations of agricultural
commodities, food and cotton have been
approaching what was regarded as the
ideal 81 900 100000 mark. In the II months
ending June 80 1t passed that mark and
there seems to be no reason for fearing
that this was an exceptional record, not
again to be equaled. Apparently we are
to continue expectation of the products OF
the soil at a rate of increase comparable
with that which characterized this expor-
tatlon within the past 10 years. In the
year 1906 it was thought to be an extra
ordinary thing that we exported the
products of American agriculture of the
money value of 1921 900 600, round num-
bers The expectation has gradually in
creased since that year. During the pres
ont summer we have been exporting agri-
cultural products, chiefly wheat, to a
phenomenal extent.
The Merchandise Exports
GnenOmenal as was the expectation Vi
agricultural products In the Y months
ending June 49, they We're not such a
phenomenon as vas the marketing OF
other commodities sthan those produced oil
rectly from the soil. Occasionally we hear
from Europe that the statistics are re-
garded over there with amazement which
show that our increase of expectation OF
merchandise in the II months ending June
30 was $500, 900, 600 greater than they were
in the preceding year.
Although it is often said that the trade
ba lance which represents an excess OF eX-
ports over imports and the money value OF
this excess a good deal of myth, yet ii
is not so regarded by our international
bankers. An able an international banker
as America has produced said three years
ago that the favorable trade balance caused
hy our expectation of cotton, amounting
to about $5G0000 000O was of inestimable
advantage to the American people This
trade balance enabled us to pay off the
invisible or unrecorded obligations to Eu-
rope and still leave a handsome sum in the
form of surplus
In the present calendar year the prob
abilities are that our International trade
balance will be about $3.50, 600 These
statistics are regarded here as explaining
why it is that American business men as
a whole seem to regard with something
like Indifference the schedules of the new
tariff bill With such a foreign commerce
as this readjustment made necessary by
d tariff law and by the adoption of new
banking and currency system will be
speedy and will not be difficult.
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