The Washington herald. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1906-1939, 1913-04-13

This seems to be matter of chance But ar
q matter Of fact there may be some slight
imperfection In its symmetry, one side heav-
Ter than the other, and this is what deter
mines the direction of its fall Even IL II liz
a perfect cone. a mere breath will determine
on which side 1t will go. Both are thy
causes but equally sure in their effect.
II. says NJ. Poincare we could know the
exact laws Of nature and the situation of the
universe at given minute we could
predict what would be the situation of tn.
universe a minute after. But we seldom
do know the natural laws. nor do we know
the very tiny things In initial conditions
which engender very great nnal phenomena
or bring about disaster which seems to be
entirely beyond human estimating little
error In first premises may produce an enor-
nous error at the last, so prediction be-
comes impossible and everything seems to
depend upon chance.
Uncertainties in Contracting Business
There are examples of the most practical
and colossal accomplishments brought about
because tiny causes are hunted for, discov-
cred. and considered with scientific exact
ness In making plans for these great activi
ties.
Lord Cowdray is at the head OF one Of the
largest and most powerful contracting COM
panies in the world, a company which has
completed enormous works. CONTRACTING Ia g
had many speculative and uncertain as well
as strenuous elements in 1t, 50 that few con.
tractors have become wealthy and many have
been broken men.
Concerning this company a magazine arti-
Gle says: Why have there been no failures
in the seventy years this business has exist
ed? 1t is because the speculative element
is eliminated by the thorough Investigation
which every proposition receives before II :.
entered on. Lord Cowdray always says that
his success is largely due to his excellent
partners and also to a highly organized STAFF
I'm that staff there Is the cream Of every
profession which has to examine the details
of the work. There are great linguists great
engineers great accountants; and every pro-
posal has first to pass through it's tnfest de-
tails the toothcomb investigation Of this body
OF we'll picked men. When the enterprise
finaily comes before Lord Cowdray every
thing has been examined: and thus, though
millions may depend on the result. nothing by
this time has been left to chance-every acci-
dent has been provided for. every contingency
anticipated"
The dice are lOdQeQ moi onfy IN the unQeT-
world of the gambler, but in a new and bet
ter sense they are loaded in that upper world
Of great business Of which Lord Cowdray is a
representative. And that upper world Is
not necessarily one Of great businesses: 1t
may be one Of the single ambitious individual
The man Of wit who tries to outwit something
that has no wit spends more time and more
good brain stuff often than the man who
strenuously looks into causes and then acts
accordingly.
few takers succeed not because they are
takers but because they have 30 much COM
mon sense and because they have little or no
soul to be scorched by crooked dealing. The
average mai has such soul. % he needs to
keep in the straight road.
Old Probability no longer rules the weather
and all his kin have been routed from OH
cial positions They still sneak around In
underhanded ways but In all real business
they are discredited. The air is still an un-
stable elements but there Is the great certain
ty Of the aeroplane, and when cause seekers
can 6asten certainty on to any element that
has been 50 uncertain we may be sure that
their influence with more stable things 10
pretty we'll established.