Daily capital journal. (Salem, Oregon) 1903-1919, 1913-08-08
LUCK DISCUSSED.
By Garrett P. serviss.

Everything l try goes against me. l
can't win game of cards, or, anyhow,
not often. The good cards always avoid
me. l can't even pitch pennies without
losing almost every time. Are some
people born lucky, as have heard'"-
B. o.
To the first question l reply: "Yes,
there Is scientific explanation of
luck, - and to the second: "NO, peo-
pie are NOT BORN UNLUCKY, in the
sense that you mean.
One of the greatest mathematieians
that ever lived, the astronomer Laplace,
wrote book on luck, or, as he called
it, "An Essay on Probabilities, and
you should read it.
In his book Laplace says: CAN
things that happen, even those that
seem too Insignificant to be connected
with the great laws of nature, are as
necessary consequences of those laws
as are the revolutions of the planets. 4"
That is simply a declaration that
LUCK obeys LAW. If things seem
to go against you it is not because of
any occult influence standing in your
way, but it is because the circumstances
compel them to act thus.
You can control events if you can
discover the causes underlying them.
If you cannot discover the causes, then
they will fall out in a way which seems
to you to be an effect Of mere chance,
and if the chance is not on your side
you may think that some mysterious
influence is working against you.
The simplest way to illustrate La.
places "calculus of probabilities, 4"
whose principles he applied to all hu-
man things, not excepting the "moral
Sciences" is perhaps to observe what
happens when you throw up a coin.
1t must necessarily come down with
either heads" or "tails" uppermost.
If you could measure all the forces
acting upon 1.-THE twist, or pitch, or
twirl, the number of turns, the influ.
ence of air currents, the effect of in.
equalities of the table on which it
strikes, etc, then you could predict
which side would come uppermOst. But
II these forces are unknown, even math.
ematics can do nothing for you.
But mathematics CAN deal with the
problem in another way, If your coin
ALWAYS fell heads up mathematics
would tell you what your own common
sense should reveal, that there was
some constant cause, such as extra
weight on one side, that governed the
fall.
If it fell sometimes head and some.
times tails, capriciously, mathematics
would tell you that, while it could not
predict the result in any particular
ease, it COULD assure you THAI, IN
THE LONG pUN, there would be an
equal number of heads and tails pre-.
sented.
Mathematics arrives at its results by
taking averages over exceedingly long
periods Of time. In fact, the mathe.
matical theory, in its completeness, in.
wolves INFINITE time. Aud right
here is where the young man who
wrote the letter makes his great mis-
take, He does not allow sufficiently
for the element Of time. If he could
continue to play cards for million
years (but it is to be hoped that he
will not), he would doubtless find that
he had won as often as he hal lost
provided that the game was one of
pure chance.
But the great value Of such work as
Laplace performed in developing the
laws Of probability is not in its appli.
cation to games of chance, but in the
warning which IL gives against de.
pending upon luck for anything. If
must have INFINITE
TIME as basis in order to reduce
the vagaries Of chance to a regular
law how can any man expect, in the
course Of brief lifetime, to strike a
balance between favorable and unfav.
orable turns over which he has no con.
troll The apparent favors Of fortune
to him, though they may continue long
are, after all, mere results Of hazard
The thing for the "unlucky" young
man to do is to look into himself and
not into his luck. Instead Of changing
from one thing to another in search Of
something lucky, lot him cultivate his
Intelligence and his will power, and Sc.
lect an occupation in which he can dis.
cern the causes that produce success
or failure Nature made him for
something; let him find out what that
something is, and stick to II. After
that he can snap his fingers at luck.
-----s-aa-s---
Sometimes the symptoms Of kidney
aud bladder trouble are so plain no one
,an mistake them. Backache, weak and