The Richmond Virginian. (Richmond, Va.) 1910-1920, 1913-11-30
A BUSINESS FORECAST
FOR THE COMING MONTH
Tremendous Volume of Activity in All Lines of Business Has
Kept Banks Busy the Past Two Tears. No Reason Com
plain Of Dull Times. The Outlook for December.


terday, the American National bank
says.
careful analysis OF the business
situation at this time shows clearly
that the majority OF complaints heard
about business operations during the
past two years have been without real
foundation or reason. Taking THE
totals of all big things in business
for the pasty twenty-four months, we
ind that the new records have been
set for the two-year period by nearly
every one of them and the sum total
of them all sets n decidedly new record
in transactions. Bank clearings, for
eign trade, production of gold, coal
and the base metals, earnings OF rail-
roads and crop production have all,
during this period. exceeded any sim
liar period in the history of the coun-
try.
These great activities have caused a
tight money market because We have
not enough OF the circulating medium
and scarce money in turn has caused
business failures to increase material
ly, both in number of failed con-
Germs and In total liabilities.
The trouble has not been lack OF
business but lack of money with when
to carry 1t on and the continued dull
natural result of scarce money. The
banks have been busy taking care OF
the absolute needs Of their big Gus
toners in manufacturing and mer-
chandising lines, in helping importers
and exporters TO finance their tre-
mendous exports and imports and in
assisting through the country banks,
the moving and marketing OF the
crops, the total of which for the two
year period, as Just stated. Is the
largest ever known.
1t has been a period of enormous
transactions, tight money, uncertainty
as to the future and. as natural re-
suit, ii has been a period 10 small
profits. Hand to mouth business. even
though in large volume, Is less pront-
able than the purchase and sale OF
goods in larger individual itesls and
at less frequent intervals.
While readJusting ourselves TO the
operations of new political admins
tration. while repricing our lines 10
meet the necessities Of the new tarit
bill. while scheduling our incomes in
accordance with the, requirements of
the income tax law, while adjusting
ourselves to the operations of a new
currency system In whatever form II
may be finally fixed by congress and
while going through the tremendous
business readtustment which may be-
come necessary because or the pro-
posed antitrust legislation and anti
trust action-while all these things
are going on. the volume of business
as a whole must necessarily shrink TO
some extent. The care. however. with
which business will be operated dur
ing the coming two-year period VIII
mean much in the increase of actual
net profits.
During October. bank clearings to-
tailed 1886 million dollars, while last
year they were 1T.i46 millions. The
considerable shrinkage for the month
was not all due to lack of stock ex-
change operations because clearings
outside New York totaied only 1000
million dollars compared with 7,007
millions for October last year. For
the ten months, clearings have totaled
141 billion dollars, compared with las
billions for the same period last year
Business failures have been numer-
Gus, numbering l.344 for October
compared with only l,i22 for the same
month last year Total liabilities were
2o,s52 thousand dollars compared
with 14.7ls thousand dollars for the
Same month last year. For only three
months in the commercial
history of the country have the NUM-
Der OF failures and the total ibilities
both exceeded the past month OF
October It is believed that the bust
ness atmosphere is being cleared UP
by these failures and that each UNI
stable concern which diseontinues
business is helping TO make the whole
sbusiness fabric strong and dependable
The last complete figures on rail-
road gross and net earnings are for
September and show total gross earn
ings of 2s5 millions compared with
275 millions last year and ret earn
ings OF only SO millions compared
with 9S last year. This gain OF ten
million dollars in gross earnings and
decline OF FIVE million dollars in net
earnings makes a disparagement be-
tween the two of fifteen million dol
lars and is another evidence that the
greater the volume of railroad busi-
ness, the worse the railroads position
A ruling has not yet been made by
the commission on the proposed
freight rate increase by the principal
eastern lines. A number of wage
increases are already effective and II
looks as though nothing would clear
the situation except some increases III
freight rates and readjustment oil
the amount paid the railroads by the
government for carrying the mails
which will offset the loss burden which
has been ialu upon the thdh-CditS Ing
roads by the parcel post
The car shortage Is not severe. but
Is still with us and not enough cars
are as yet available to handle the loads
awaiting them. The net shortage or
the first OF the month was 1.S42 cars
For the month of September mer-
chandise exports totaled 21S million
dollars compared with 200 millions 8
year ago and 1876 millions two years
ago. Imports amounted to ITO mil
lions as against las millions a year
ago, and 125 millions two years ago
The resulting balance of the trade, iT
our favor, for the month is nearly AZ
million dollars compared with 55 mil
lions last year and II millions the
previous year. These figures would be
misleading on their face IL not ex-
planned that large quantities of i'm.
ported merchandise were held In bond
ed warehouses until after passage OF
the new tariff act. this releasing them
for distribution. Our actual imports
for September were very low, and i'm
ports have been low since last March
For the first nine months merchandise
exports have exceeded 1,733 million
dollars and imports have been l,32e
millions. The balance OF trade for the
first nine months. in our favor. was
407 million dollars compared with 2sa
millions for the same period last year
and 323 millions in 1911. Our favor.