Daily Kennebec journal. [microfilm reel] (Augusta, Me.) 1870-1975, 1913-10-14
THE MYSTERY OF THE WEATHER
Government Bureaus May Solve Daily
Problems, but Do Little to Help
Common Citizen Understand the
Clouds.

Common Citizen Understand the
| Clouds.
The science of meteorology makes
| great progress in the observation of
facts. but very little in generalization
from them. DR. Mills annual volume on
British Rainfall. of which the number
| for 1912 has Just been issued illustrates
| both propositions. 1t deals only with
one meteorological factor in one country.
but it contains the daily records of more
| than 5000 observers. And it contains
| nothing else except some comparisons
| with previous records No generaliZa-
| ton is attempted and though it deals
| with a very exceptional year. no explain
/ alton of it's exceptional character is
| suggested We are not complaining of
| the omission. No doubt DIR. Mill would
say that the volume Is only intended to
record observations, and that it is diff
i cult to keep them within reasonable
| limits, without devoting space to vague
speculations. That is the point. The OBJ
/ servations increase in number and ac-
1 curacy and their collation. grows in COM
plexity. btu discussion OF the why and
| wherefore of the phenomena recorded
/
| insertion, because nothing is known of
the why and wherefore. If anything
| were known, it's bearing on the phenom-
| ena would be not only worth inserting,
| but the most interesting part of the
whole. We do not say that no progress
| has been made in generalization. The
| daily forecast of the weather issued by
| the meteorological Office is deduced from
| certain generalization and has advanced
! to adegree of accuracy which commands
confidence and renders it very useful for
practical purposes. But the time covered
| is very short
| Local weather wisdom, which is some
I times quite trustworthy. comes under the
same limitation AS for weather PRO
| phets, their business is pure quackery
| and an amusement for the idle. Larger
| CONGRATULATIONS on scientific grounds
| have been ventured, but with an i'll
success which makes serious men shy of
| theories The weather seems to make a
| point of smashing them as soon as they
| are put forward. Even the mild gen.
.eralization of sequence is risky. One is
| mentioned in British Rainfall. For q
| years, from 1889 to 1909 the recurrence
of one wet year following two dry ones
| was observed in England and Wales and
| for as horter period in the British Isles
| but 1910 broke the sequence. The report
| observes that probably the phase. to
l whatever cause it may have been due
| had begun to give place to some other
| Those phases are mystery. We have
| no idea what phase is coming or how
| long it will last because we do not know
! the causes. Nor can We reckon the
1 chances, because the terms of the equa-
4 ton are beyond our ken. The factors
are too many and too obscure. All we
1 know is that the phases are constantly
| changing. Last year was extraordinarily
/ wet and dull. the year before was not
less extraordinarily dry and hot This
year again is dry but not very hot. Why
i should an exceptionally wet year be
4 sandwiched in between two dry ones? 1t
suggests law of compensation and some
| theory OF evaporation and precipitation
i but such law Is no sooner thought to
1 be established than some new phase
i upsets it. The incidence Of the rainfall
i last year presents still greater puzzle.
There was an unprecedented event in
the great "rain storm of Aug. 25-26, just
Il a year ago.
MeHfOTleS are SHUT, Dut d 6oou many
i people will remember the floods IN Nor
folk produced by single downpour, in
Il which fully "a inches fell over an area
| of 81 square miles, and more than eight
I inches were recorded in some places. "A
long article is devoted to 1t in the pres
ent report, and it's right to the title
unprecedented" is fully vindicated
| Why should an unprecedented fall occur
in that particular area, where nothing
4 approaching to it has ever been recorded
4 before? We cannot even begin to guess
i Nor are such unforeseable occurrences
4 confined to single events. The long
series of dry years which began in 1893,
| just 20 years ago, resulted in an accumu-
lated deficiency of rain such as mad
never been recorded before over term
of years. The series was not continuous
because two wet seasons were inter
posed; but progressive deficiency was
| the net outcome before the period cam
to an end. The practical result in regart
to water supply was very serious
| Springs ran dry which had never beer
known to fail before. streams disap
peared. deep wells sank to a fraction OF
their normal yield. and water famines
prevailed far and wide.
That experience, though now general,
: forgotten emphasized the practical i'm
portance of advancing the science of me
teorology at least far enough to lift ;
corner of the veil. There is, indeed, NJ
; science whcih exercises a more direc
and vital influence on our daily life thai
! meteorology might exercise il 1t wer
I'll sufficiently advanced to warn us In tim
against unprecedented weather and t
!. give US a fair outline of the coming sea
sons. of all the external influences sur
: rounding us the weather counts TO
most. and is at the same time the mos
variable and the least comfortable. 1t -
exceptionally variable in these islands
which Is the reason why we always tall
| about it. The practice is ridicuied Otter
| enough. but it continues. and for yer,
good reasons. In truth il II the ridicul