The Daily Missoulian. [volume] (Missoula, Mont.) 1904-1961, 1913-02-02

This season we face the task of pre-
dicting-and trying to figure, on seven
clubs with new managers, on - of 16
clubs that will be shaker to pieces be-
fore the playing season starts and 10
of them that will start with practically
new lineups.
Under the circumstances I find it
rather easy to pick the first and sec
ond clubs of each Regeneration Easy
to pick the tailender in the American
and after that one is calm with
so many unknown and uncertain
quantities that the task seems an i'm
possibility.
The probabilities of the new man
ayers handling their teams well is in
itself a big problem, but fortunately
every man is a known quantity. And
in his respect the owners have made
a strong bid to improve baseball. l
do not think that ever before there
were 16 as good managers in charge of
clubs.
In trying to figure the teams and
the. probabilities of their success or
failure the system | use is rather COM
plicated. l figure the comparative
value of each position in defensive
YIN ticI llSuic tiie lIeluHlS value. OIL
men as individuals, in their value as
batters, as base runners, and as lin
side men. In this it is necessary to
understand the men themselves and
know whether or not they will play
good ball in the club to which they
are assigned.
For instance, knowing Mike Mitchell
was disguised with Cincinnati one
ro,1 ~, hoo, r.- 49,
value in every department if he re-
manned a Red. AT Chicago it is GER
tain that, during the early part of the
season at least, he will play even a
bit above his speed. Had tinker and
EVers remained on the same club |
would have cut at least eight points
from both. Now | figure them close
to their best, detracting a bit for the
managerial strain which will hamper
their individual work.
In figuring catchers one calculates
ON the probable number of games tre
individual will work and reduces this
to the composite value For instance,
Archer probably will catch eighty
games, Bresnahan so, Needham - and
the rest doubtful, with the chances
1aVoring Archer. In pitching one must
figure the probable number of games
each man will win-NValsh 46, Lange
", White 1G, and so on.
Having calculated each mans value
TO the team and reduced this to team
values, l make up another table, show
ing the value. of the players in each
position in comparison with the value
of men playing the same positions in
other teams. Eventually reduce the
composite and the comparative values
Gown to the team values and calculate.
about what percentage of games each
team should win n where they
ought to finish with that percentage.
Ihe difficulty this season is that
one is working with so many unknown
quantities; Quantities that the mama
gers themselves will not decide until
after the training season. To over
come this / have picked the two
strongest candidates for each position
IN which there. is a contest for a regu-
lar JOB, averaged the rivals, n used
that as the basis of position strength
of the teams.
While it seems a wild goose system,
yet last season 1 picked,ln January
n FEBRUARY, a dozen players who
got the jobs and the majority of these
were selected from pure dope and in
the face Of announcements that other
men would have. the positions. For In
lance l picked Wolverton's New
York team, and when the season
opened he lined up exactly as I pre-
dlcted, although two weeks earlier he
had only n man in position.
There is a lot of extremely promis-
ing new blood in the major leagues
this spring, but it appears to me the
best of the new men We're tried out
last fall.
In estimating the value of the indi-
Vidual players, Please do not imagine