Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1913-06-22
Variations One of Recent Dis
coveries by Scientists of
the Smithsonian.
SOME CENTURIES HENCE
FACT WILL BE USEFUL
Accurate Weather Predictions, It Is
Declared, Can Be Made Months
in Advance.

mere is SOCn tn1nR as the solar
constant This will be crushing news
to many people who had implicitly be-
1ieved that the solar constant was a
thing like death and taxes on which
they could absolutely rely. But it is
not. The sun has been proved to be
a variable star. So instead of a solar
constant there is what might be called
n solar inconstant. How much the sun
varies cannot yet be said outside mar
row limits. There is a variation about
every ten days of practically the same
amount as the variation of the pole
star. But the record of the variations
has not yet been kept long enough to
base long range weather forecasts on
ii.
Now that the Inconsistency of the sun
has been divulged there is chance
that in the course of a few thousand
or possibly few hundred years one
may he able to forecast the weather
with reasonable accuracy months in
advance of the crop seasons. This
would be a great advantage as any
farmer will realize.
Possibly in few thousand years Ma
caulays New Zealander, looking down
from the ruins of London bridge, may
remember that the meteoro1ogists back
home are about ready to get out the
seasonss weather forecast
Put Blame on Anc1entS.
The scientists of the Smithsonian who
made the discovery say also that if
the Greeks in the time of Aristotle or, |
better still. that Babylonian monarch
who first popularized the dairy lunch
had possessed instruments of sufficient
precision to make the observations
that are being made now we might at
the present time be able to make use
10 rIDfI g
the weather Unfortunately, the OBJ
servations have been going on only
about a decade and it is only within
the last year or so that the sun was
identified as variable star.
This discovery was the work of DR..
Charles q. Abbott in charge of the astro-
physical laboratory. Observations were
commenced here in 1903 and in 1905 were
carried to Mount Wilson, Cal, where the
atmospheric conditions are. much better.
1t was thought at first that there was
constant radiation of heat from the sun
and that the temperature of the earth
was affected only by local atmospheric
conditions. 1t was felt, however, that
the radiation of the sun varied within
about ten degrees and the astro-physical
laboratory thereupon established station
in northern Algeria, where simultaneous
observations were made with those at
Mount Wilson. 1t was found that the
variation in recitation was practically iden-
teal at the two places.
Sun Spots Increase Heat.
1t was found that sun spots increased
the amount of heat given off from the
SUM- This was rather surprising at first
because when the sun is most spotted it
might be assumed that it's heat would be
most obscured. 1t is explained, how
ever, that sun spots probably. like polk.
ing fire, merely tend to bring more heat
TO the surface.
hot ha. "a
is that volcanic disturbances on the earth
tend to lower the amount of radiation re
celved from the sun. There have been a
number of heavy volcanic outbreaks since
the observations have been in progress
and; this. has always been accompanied by
reduction in heat. The PLANTATION
given for this Is that the cloud of vol
.canic dust reflects the radiation and pre-
vents its reaching the earth.
An attempt has been made to find
whether weather bureau observations
over a long period Of years would throw
any light on The changing temperature
that is derived from the sun itself. These
observations have been compiled, giving
the average of the world for thirty years,
and to the surprise of every one inter-
ested it was found that the variations
in average temperature was only half
a degree Fahrenheit between the begin
ming and end of these observations, al
though in the interval there had been
marked changes in temperature owing
to sun spots and volcanic disturbances
Big Trees Show Changes.
: One thing that indicates there have
been serious changes in the earth's tenn
pererature through long series of years
was unearthed by Prof. Huntington of
Yale, who made microscopic estima-
ton of the annual rings on one of the
big Sequoia trees on the Pacific coast.
There was something like 5000 Of these
annual rings and they indicated that a
thousand or so years ago there must
have been a serious and long protracted
drought and fall of temperature in that
region Examinations. geologic and 9TH
erwise. in other parts of the world show
ed that at the same time there must
have been similar drought and lowering
OF temperature. The scientists agree
also that the movement of the glacial
ice cap and other geologic phenomena
Indicate that there must have been wide
changes in the earth's temperature at
various times. However, these are so
complicated by changes in the inclina-
ton of the earths axis and other cir
cumstances that ii is hard to tell how
variation and how much to other causes
1t seems fairly certain. however, since
II is established that the sun is var
able star, that in the course of a few
centuries will be able to dispense
very largely with the services of the
weather bureau and make forecasts for
the crop season several months In ad-
vance.