New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1913-11-03
BIG LOANS IMPENDING
CAST GLOOM ON BOURSE
Paris Stock Market Awaits De-
tails This Week of Govern
ment'S Fiscal Proposals.
BALKAN FINANCING NEXT
Recent Belligerents Likely to
Increase Indebtedness by
Some $2O0,00O,OOO Be-
fore End of Year.
GBy Gable TO The Tribune. /

fore End of Year.
lBy Gable to The Tribune.l
Paris, Nov. 1.-The tone of the
Bourse last week was dull and heavy
and business was strictly professional.
Bankers, the investing public and all
operators. speculative and others, are
marking time, jmpatiently awaiting the
announcement of the fiscal policy Of
the government, which is expected this
week after the reassembling of Parlia-
ment. Then on the heels of the French
sideration of loans to be made to the
powers of Southeastern Europe.
A sum amounting to many hundred
millions of dollars Of French money
has already been lent to the Balkan
States. The debts of these countries
are about TO be swollen greatly, and the
increase will probably exceed $20O,0oO,-
600 before the end OF the year.
1t will be necessary TO reimburse the
short term loans granted to the bel
ligerents during the course of hostih-
ties, as we'll as replace war material
and stores which have been used up or
have been destroyed, and steps must
be taken to develop the territories
given up by Turkey on the conclusion
of peace.
France Must Be Banker.
ntol
markets is such that the Balkan gov
ernments have necessarily to apply 10
France for the greater part of the
money OF which they stand in so much
need. The question of this appeal TO
French credit is a subject of keen dis
cussion at the present time and will
certainly form one of the first subjects
TO be thrashed out in the tribune Of
Parliament. The question is whether
or not il is d favorable time to with
draw funds from the national bias de
laine," otherwise 10 lend French CAPT
tai to those states. Is it Opportune 10
allow French savings TO be used by
these restless nationalities TO re-estab-
lish their military ornaments, which
they might be tempted TO use again on
the first favorable occasion?
This question meets with opposing
views. In the case of governments like
those of the Balkans, which are already
encountered with external debts, Cor
eign loans must be repaid in gold, or
at least the interest service of these
loans must be paid in gold. Even if
their finances as such are in "A stable
position. their monetary situation must
be sufficiently sound to enable them TO
obtain sufficient quantities of gold 10
meet their liabilities. The matter
stands thus: Can they find enough
Question of Gold Payments.
The four leading Balkan States, in
Guiding Rumania, already require more
than S4OOOO.OO0 yearly to acquit the
interest on their debts. No doubt these
countries are not called upon to pay
the entire sum in gold, because small
part of the total disbursements is used
for internal debts. and because native
capital, especially in the case of Greece,
has been employed for home loans.
But there are many industrial and
commercial enterprises financed by for
eign capital. There are also sums eX-
pended by inhabitants Of these states
which have been spent abroad. Then
there is the money spent abroad for
war material and railways, which must
be paid in gold. The amount of $40
100000 is thus probably below the
mark.
There are four ways in which these
governments obtain the precious metal.
First, the gold mines situated within
their territories; second, gold in specie
left by strangers passing through these
regions; third, by the revenue from for
eign securities held by natives, and,
lastly, from exports. The first three OF
these means Of getting gold may be
passed over as unimportant; therefore,
they must rely on the balance of their
foreign trade for their gold needs. Ru-
mania alone among the Balkan States
enjoys an excess in export profits.
Bulgaria has a marked excess Of i'm
ports over exports, as well as Greece,
whereas Rumania profits by large
overvalue Of export trade amounting to
97.2 per cent and Servia small sur
plus equalling 12.5 per cent.
To face yearly drain Of S4O,OO0,OOO
the Balkan states possess only about
So, 100000 Of export surplus. They
have, therefore, regularly met their
liabilities by contracting foreign loans
i'm gold. After the grave events Of the
present year it is not possible that they
can dispense with monetary aid from
abroad. For a long time TO come they
will be compelled 10 seek the needful
gold through foreign loans. 1t is to the
interest OF foreign creditors To supply
this gold until the economic condition
Of these states will permit them TO dis
pense with foreign help.
WARMER WEATHER AT HAND
rIaor Skiea Also Predicted for