The Birmingham age-herald., 1913-01-16
HOW CROP YIELDS
ESTIMATE is MADE
Problems That Confront the
Bureau Statisticians
POSITION OF FARMER
The Money Received From His Crops
Has increased Much More Than
the Price of Things He
Has to Buy
POSITION OF FARMER
by C. E. STEWART

Washington, January 15.-(Special) THE
method of reporting and estimating the
acreage. condition and yield of the vari-
GUS principle crops of the United States
each month during the year by the bureau
of statistics of the department of agri-
culture are likely to remain unchanged
for 1913.
The work of the bureau of statistics Is
simply estimating, not reporting, facts.
as is the case when a census of crop data
Is taken. In making an estimate there
Is warrant for the use OF lines of inquiry
and methods of computing that would not
be tolerable in census. At best the es-
innate of crops is merely approximate.
ever been made for them by any expert
authority of the bureau.
In estimating the prospect of the yield
of the entire country the average of the
conditions and yields in five past years is
taken as basis. There has been ques-
tion whether In the selection of the five
years for comparison during 1913 the year
i911 would be left out. In many respects
1911 was a misleading year because the
aggregate production of crops was 6S per
cent lower than in the preceding year,
while the total money valuation of the
entire crop production of the country was
81 per cent greater than in 1910. There
are many who would prefer to use for
comparison the series of years from and
including 1907 to 1912, leaving 1911 out.
No Decision Reached
No decision to do this has been reached;
those who oppose such a course say that
lean years ever since Pharaoh have come
In the experience of farmers, and that
they must be taken into account in stat
istics just as mpch as fat years. To Sc
lect good years s nd compare the current
year with them would Introduce an ele-
ment of untrustworthiness and doubt. The
establishment of such practice they
contend, might lead to some gerater de-
Walton in the future from what would
appear to be the regular and practical
method of comparison.
The way that the crop estimates are
made up is interesting There are In all
10000 voluntary reporters scattered all
over the country. They render their i'm
rortant service without compensation ex.
eept as they are paid in free seeds and
In receiving the publications of the de-
partment One in hundred of these re-
porters has been performing the service
for 36 years, per cent 26 years, H per
cent II years, and 46 per cent years.
The service that is performed is done
with great pains and represents good
judgment and splendid honesty. These
men, 1t is asserted. have no axes to grind.
They are not gambling In the prices of
staples that are produced on the farm.
They do a great service to the country,
to farmers. and to business men generally.
Their returns aid in fixing prices, inform
linz nfl lt,sip hot
| the coming year will be, tell railroads
what preparations must be made to take
care of the transportation of an approach
| ing season and give the public at large
q general knowledge of how the economic
distribution of crop staples should be an
| ticipated.
Storing Position of the Farmer
| One of the most interesting lines Of
work done by the bureau of statistics Is
little known by the public The iterated
talk nowadays about the cost of high ,iv-
ing has led to an effort to discover the
relation between the price value of farm
crops and the articles that farmers, as a
class must buy These inquiries bring
out some surprising facts. For instance
the money value of an acre of the far
mers' crops In 1909 was 72 per cent greater
than the money value of an acre of crops
in 1899 while the average value of articles
more in 1909 than in 1899. The real poten-
tial status of the farmer in this situation
appears when the figures are worked out
TO show that as a result of the greater IN
crease in the price of what the farmer
produces and sells than in the price of
| what he buys tho net, the net purchasing
power of the crop of an acre is 81 per
| cent larger than II was ten years prior
| to 1909.
| The same line of investigation shows
| that the general average of increase In
price of what the farmer buys Is now
| about Is per cent greater than 1t was in
| 1899. There was an increase between 1910
and 1911 of IL per cent and between 800
| and 1910 Of 2.6 per cent. An acre of corn
now will buy SOL per cent more than i.
would ten years ago. An acre of wheat
will buy 30.2 per cent more now than ten
years ago An acre of cotton will buy .'2.3
per cent more than IL would ten years ago.
| n the statistics may be relied upon, and
| =.