The Birmingham age-herald., 1913-10-29
Warns Business Men Not to
Expect Too Sudden
Changes in Traffic
SELF SUSTAINING
IN NEXT TEN YEARS
Thinks Alabama Coal Fields VIII
Have Immense Advantage Because
of Proximity to Source of
Large Consumption

Stating that the opening of the
Panama canal would place the south
upon a new Industrial and commercial
footing, but warning the business men
not to expect a sudden change in bust
ness conditions after the opening, DR..
Emory r. Johnson, special United States
commissioner of tariffs and tolls and
a professor of the University of Penn
sylvania. addressed large gathering of
Birmingham business men at luncheon
at the Hotel Hillman banquet room
Yesterday. DR.. Johnson predicted that
the great canal would be self-support-
ing 10 years after it is opened.
The address was given under the au-
spices of the Chamber of Commerce and
the local alumni of the University of
Pennsylvania There were about so men
present. President w. p. q. Harding
of the chamber presided.
1T has been 13 years since [ have
visited Birmingham and l have mar
veled at the progress of your city"
said DIR. Johnson. II will endeavor to
touch upon several different phases of
the canal project, but 1 will try to fol-
low the general theme of the Panama
canal and the trade of the south and o.
Birmingham district.
Many Reports Heard
There are reports of all kinds con-
cerning the canal construction but |
believe there is no reason to expect
that any of the dams will break or
there will be any trouble in the opera
tions of the big canal through land
slides, damage from earthquakes or
any thing else. Something that is not
generally known is that for over year
yet dredges will be at work along the
banks of the canal increasing the slopes
and decreasing the weight of the banks.
II have been studying conditions in
the Panama and other canal zones for
IA years and l have considered the sit
uation from many different angles. In
the past it has been easier to reach the
export markets from Pittsburg and
other northern iron and coal dis
tricts than from Birmingham but now |
believe the tables will just be turned
around. Something that ] have thor
relative Advantage of the canal is go
ing to depend more or less on the cost
of coal at the canal. The government
has been using thousands of tons of
coal ever since the canal work started
and the great part of this has come
from the Virginia fields 1t is stated
that the Virginia coal stands the stor-
age In the tropics OF course there is
danger of spontaneous combustion in
stored coal in the tropics, but | do not
see any reason why Alabama coal will
not meet the storage requirements as
we'll as any other Assuming that it
will, l can see no reason why Ala
bama coal Will not take preference
over the other coal which has to be
brought far greater distance
Must Not Expect Too Much
Everywhere l have an opportunity
to talk of the canal / warn the bust
ness men not to expect too much from
the canal-that is immediate results
There is not going to be any revolu-
tionary change in any phases of bust
ness when the canal goes into opera
ton. 1t will be gradual ana slow in
coming. The reason is that practically
all of the markets opened up to this
country by the canal are already in the
the United States is going to enter
these markets with about a to l han
dicap and this will have. to be over
come and its overcoming will be a
gradual process. There will be no reyo-
luton in commercial and industrial af-
fairs, although | believe this section
will feel the results of the canal be-
fore the districts further north"
DIR. Johnson spoke of the new interna-
tional relations and obligations which
would fall upon the United States by
reason of the canal and then gave Some
figures upon its cost and rnaintainence.
He said IL would cost about S400, 900. 900
by the time it Is complete and that it
would cost about s19 9,500,0O0 year to
operate 1t, pay interest on the bonds
and all expenses attached to the under
taking. He estimated that about H.
100000 tons of shipping would pass
through the canal the first year it is
open and that this traffic will in
crease at the rate of about so per cent
in a decade, there being about 1900,
600 tons of shipping through the canal
annually at the end of decade. The
revenue from the tolls of the canal the
first year he estimated at s12,600, 900
which also would increase about 60
per cent in 10 years, at the end of
which time the canal would be oper-
ating on paying basis. He continued
Gains Made by Canal
For voyages between Mobile or New
Orleans and San Francisco ten-knot
freight steamer will save four days more
than the canal saves for such steamers
making the trip between New York and
San Francisco. For voyages to Iquique,
| the nitrate port of Chile, Mobile or New
Orleans gains nearly six days more thar
+, New York does, while to Sydney, the
great port of Australia, the canal helps
Mobile, New Orleans In the time required
! by a ten-knot freight steamer, GA days
more than 1t does New York. The two
| tables also bring out the interesting fac
/ that from southern ports 10 the Oriep
east of Singapore, the distance is less
by way of the Panama canal. while from
| New Y ork to Hongkong and Manila ant
1 points south thereof. the Suez route is a'
| short as that via the Panama canal.
"The short route to the Orient is o
4 special significance TO the south, becaus'
| of its present and prospective exports o
raw cotton and cotton manufactures t.
| Oriental and other trans-Pacific coun
tries. 1t seems certain that the staple in
| dustry of the south will derive substantial