New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1913-01-02
GUARANTY TRUST COMPANY.


The Tribune has requested an opinion
concerning the business situation as II is
likely to develop during the year 1913
Manifestly It is impossible for any one
TO forecast the business life of nation
, for an entire year or for any part OF
year, but notwithstanding the possible
setback occasioned by tariff revision, for
eign wars, and Investigations, II seems
altogether probable that business In 1913
will show considerable Improvement over
1872
In practically all parts OF the country
optimism is prevalent, not blind. unrea-
sonable optimism, but an intelligent OPP
timism based apparently on a DEFINITE
knowledge OF healthful conditions. Agri-
cultural and horticultural crops more
than anything else in this country en-
courage or retard prosperity, and the year
1912 has witnessed a crop which has not
been surpassed in many years. when the
farmer is blest with a large quantity OF
agricultural products, as he was III 1917
and finds a good market for II at fair
price. 1t is inevitable that there VIII De
an increased demand for all KINDS OF
manufactured goods, which Will be pald
| for largely in cash. The manufactures
I'm turn will pass on this prosperity TO
others who have goods TO sell. and the
! ever widening circle Of good times which
started at the farm will not stop until
it has reached everybody that can be In
any way affected.
Early in the summer. while on a trip
| through the West and into the North
west as far as Seattle and Vancouver
the writer was assured by bankers and
business men in practically every com
munity visited that all signs indicated a
tremendous crop this year A later trip
through the same section a. time when
the crops were being harvested confirmed
the prediction made earlier in the year.
The resultant spirit OF universal cheer
fulness and optimism which was every
where evident demonstrated In an UNI
mistakable manner how much the real
prosperity Of our country actually de-
ponds on those things which come TO US
ont Of the ground. Tariff revision may
affect for a time. Investigations may
temporarily check, wars may consume.
but back of IT all is old Mother Earth
and her products, which. after all, are
fundamental.
Various lines Of business seem TO have
acquired an impetus during 1912, or at
least during the concluding months or
the year. which bids fair TO carry well
into 1913 The recent Presidential cleo
ton probably had less effect on business
than any election within our memory
This is as It should be. The only thing
of a political nature which is likely 10
influence trade is the proposed revision
of the tariff, and while some merchants
are not laying in as large stocks as
would be the case was there to be no
tariff legislation, IT Is reasonable to as
sumo that the deliberate programme
which the prevailing party Is likely to
follow will have an effect far less than
would a horizontal change one way or
the other In the entire list.
The underlying fact, which. after all,
is the principal thing to be considered In
sizing up the business situation. is the
fact that there are upward of a hundred
million people In this country. all or
whom have to be fed and clothed and
who have TO travel and who are con-
stantly In need OF things that are made
and grown, and with such factor be-
fore us. fundamental as IL is we must
conclude that there is bound TO be pros
perity of greater or less degree.
r. w. ELLSWORTH