New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1913-01-02
THE FUTURE VISTA
BY william &. CornweIl, Of }. :. Bache & Go

II is seldom that prospects for com
Ing year are scanned with as much in
terest as those Of 1913. This is due 10 the
apparently complex situation which pre-
sents Itself. On the one hand. there mas
been year of steadily growing business
volume; crop estimated 10 be worth
So. 800 00J O00 (record fisures). labor fully
empoyed "a high wages. with credit
sound and practically no overpr oduction.
All this is extremely favorable. ON the
other hand. we face change of admins
tration to a party which has not been In
power for many years. and whose
accession heretofore, for whatever reason.
has not been propitious. This party is
! unreservedly pledged TO tariff revision. \
temporary retarding factor is the Balkan
situation. happily apparently near clear
ing up. Capital is not abundant. and
abroad vast sums have been boarded. de-
creasng the not too plentiful supply.
High prices of all commodities make for
unrest not only IN the United States but
all over the world.
In considering the unfavorable features
we find some ameliorating circumstances.
AS far as the Democratic party is con-
cerned. II is I'm somewhat different posi-
ton than in former successes. Ii has
come into power not from any popular
demand. but because the Republican
party has been broken in two. and conse
quently the victor is on its good behavior
and will have 10 move carefully. Mis-
takes of moment will cost il any further
lease of authority. 1t is no longer free
trade party or revenue-only party. Its
intentions in tariff revision are only to
try to keep its promises TO reduce the
cost Of living. The business constituents
of its Congressman. employers and en-
ployed. are widely dependent upon tariff
protection Tariff reduction Is easy to
talk about generally during a campaign.
but each Congressman will be in favor OF
protecting his own constituents when the
test comes.
II Is fair 70 conclude that In the long
struggle no great. wide open cuts will be
made. There Is no purpose 10 ruin any
class OF business. The Presldent-elect IS
expressions have always been that
changes must be made least disturbing
TO business.
A favorable feature in facing tariff re-
auctions is that the country is not filled
up with great stocks of merchandise.
For year Democratic success has been
probable, and merchants have not been
storing up surplus goods. The hand-to-
mouth policy forced upon them during
the depression OF 1910 and 1911 has con
tinucd through the revival months Of 1872.
Business has been much larger. and pur-
chases have increased accordingly, but
never, or at least not at all generally
with confidence enough to stock up heav-
lily. The result is one of the most as
surfing situations with regard to tariff re-
vision. Hardly better condition could
be created 10 meet revision calmly.
Trust prosecutions, II is fair to presume
will not be any more vigorous under Will
son than under Taft. Both men hold
about the same views Final decision as
TO each case must be made by the Su-
premc Court Each case will he given
long and careful consideration. This KIND
Of process is not disturbing to general
business.
The iron and steel trade. barometer Of
all others. IS In the best position in its
istory. There is no overproduction, and
orders are i'm hand at profitable prices TO
keep the mills busy far into the now
year.
This is true. in greater or less degree Of
all business. There Is momentum ~
going business ,but it IL free OF innatonl
which IS sufficient TO carry the INDUS
trial position irresistiby forward through
the tarim struggle without Injury
The most disturbing underlying feature
I'm n look ahead is our enormously cXpcn-
slve. but inefficient unscientihc and dan
scrous currency and banking system
The outlook here IS far more disturbing
than I'm the tariff experiments. Next IAN
n business continues to Increase as 1t has.
We are liable 10 have trouble with TINS
defective financial machinery, which may
put us I'm the danger zone.