The chronicle=news., 1913-08-07
HENRY cLEw's LETTER

prOveMent and an easier tendency.
This must be attributed to a uniScr-
| sal strengthening OF banking conf
OF loans. The latter was an unwel-
come process. involving u worldwide
slowing down OF business activities.
a fall In values of both commodities
and securities. and very pro-
nOnnced check upon new enterprises
and new applications for capital. II
IL now thoroughly recognized that. as
pointed out In these advices weeks
i; 90. the chief source Of trOsibfe hn"
been the Balkan war. The cost and
the Losses OF this bittre struggle are
~iimated to have been over $1,000
900. which fell upon money markets
aircady exhausted by an undue ex-
parsi0n OF credit and an enormous
demand for new capital. The per
lod Of retrenchment thus enforced
has proved highly beneficial: and
now that the main source Of strain
the Balkan wur--is over. conserva-
tive rccupcrntion should be- the inevi
table sequence. and may prove even
more rapid than expected or desired.
II unfavorable circumstances do not
Intervene. Tho continued bellixcr-
eacy of the contestants Is having onr
good effect: II Ia w.arying European
bankers OF fInancin. such petty war
fare.
II In exceedingly satisfactory ID
note that the United States is exhib-
iiinE greater recup.rative tendencies
than any other commercial natioi.
This Is hut natural. Our losses from
the war were strictly Indirect. In
stead Of rcveiinE In II trade boom
such an England and Germany have
enjoyed for the last four or iiv.
years. We have pursued with som.
degree Of restlssshcns policy Of rS-
tremc conservatism. especially In tho
last two years at least. which disap-
pointing ms II may hay. been for IN.
time being has left the American
business situation cxcertionall! !!
sound. A. result we have passed
through the recent financial strain
succ-ssfully. and find ourselves real
ly strengthened by the ordeal. Their.
In no cxakgciaiIon In sayin. that ~
far ~ intrinsic business II concerned
American affairs have not In years
been In u better position for respond
Ing to u fresh forward movement.
witnr~s the extraordinary report NJ
tho United States Steel Corporation.
always u fair barometer Of trad. con-
hitions: also the continued liberal
earnings Of our railroads proving
that there has been no Important re-
ccxsion In traffic also the satisfar-
tory reports issued from time to Tim.
by many of our large industrial cs-
Establishments.
The most important element 10
our favor In the prospect Of fine
harvest. As usual. there are com
pIain's Of injury. but these are gem
orally local and not Of a serious nat
ture. If pIcscnt prospects are real
lied. we may harvest u bumper crop
of over 5000. 100000 bushels Of
corn: also u bumper crop Of wheat. or
about $50. 900. 900 bushels: also III"
second larse'l Ad of cotton.
Amounting to over ii.0o0.o00 baics.
August Is generally a month OF de-
tcoriation for corn ard cotton. so
that no alarm need b. felt at any
moderate injury. I'u, the growing
season Is rapidly reaching It's end:
conditions are generally above the
average. and making allowance for
| customary deterioration. We are al
most sure to zee a harvest considc--
ably above the average. II is un-
necessary to dwell upon this as q.
telling factor in our continued pros
pcrity. The only drawbacks worth
considering are the tariff bill. which
has been well discounted and will
soon he passed: and the currency
bill. which though having n rough
road. will have the full backing II
President Wilson's great and stead
lily growing influence. It would be
n positive misfortune and n neglect
OF duty II Congress fails to pass Il
satisfactory currency bill before ad-
journing. Tn" only other course left
open would be to make such amend
ments TO tho prcsen, emergency law
as suggested In these adviccs a week
ago. There is one other impcdiment
to business not yet adequately recog-
nizcd In legislative circles. and that
is the universal prejudice against
business interests. especially those
lcentering AZ New York. which IL