The times dispatch. [volume] (Richmond, Va.) 1903-1914, 1913-09-21
RECESSION ON IN
BUSINESS WORLD
Europe Feels Effect Of Wars;
United States Suffers From
Crop Losses.
CHANGES IN LEGISLATION
Boom Not Desirable Now-Pub-
lie Clainor Would Bring
Forth Delayed Issues.
BY b. c. roRnEs.

.tt bN IL. e. Forbes.
4 worldwide recession IN business
has begun in mild way.
Abroad t Is a natural sequel TO tho
staggering destruction OF wealth
through a series OF wars
II the United States tho main re-
ta.d..g factors Arc: Radlca, tariff
Changes. new currency system.
dalnasa I" crops, oredi; expansion.
timidity of investors. Administrations
attitude. labor d!sputcs
Securities often advance during
periods OF trade depression. and 1t may
be that stock markets will go back
ward But boom is neither desirable
:,cr profitable. The moment the pub
lie begins TO clanlor for securities un-
derwriters will gladly bring forward
long-delayed Issues
And 1 am told that two or three
huge blocks OF stock III other roads
carried by important railroads will be
turned into cash whenever attractive
opportunity offers. Baltimore and
Ohio, southern Pacific and New Haven
are named.
The volume of gold imports this
autumn is not likely TO be abnormally
heavy.
Changes Loom Ahead.
Ffnanciers are disposed to accept
coming changes with good grace,
while inclined to express themselves
cautiously.
said one very influential authority:
Even were the new tariff law all
right, still il is new tariff law. II
means a change.
The new currency system may be
good thing, but II means n change.
The crop prospects were very fine
81 one time, but now there has been
change.
President Wilson has kept the
Democrats in line remarkably Well
But, in looking ahead. don't forget
that Senators are how influenced by
the popular election innovation This,
too is probably all right believe
it will prove good thing-but 1t Will
mean, 10 say the least, less conserva-
tism. Here also. you see, we arc con-
fronted with a change"
Moderation IL I'm Order.
Did you notice that several rather
serious failures occurred last week.
The September mortality rate is bad.
And ! fear October will bring nothing
better.
Next month will have 10 bear the
disturbances incidental to ushering in
new tariff schedules. An enormous
mass OF goods will be Immediately
pearance OF activity to trade.
Railroad receipts, which keep up
wonderfully will he temporarily in
ilated, and general sentiment may sud
denly become eXuberart
But ii IS not likely to last. The best
that can he expected during the re-
mainder of 1919 is REIMBURSEMENT TO new
conditions in preparation for a broad
forward movement next year after nu-
merous minor obstacles have been re-
moved.
Good stocks md BAD Ones.
On the other hand, ] hear that Read
ing stockholders will fare sumptuousiy
in the near future. '3Goncealed assets"
are not now kindly regarded by the
government; hence, distribution
would be in order.
Too much has been made of the pros
pective Union Pacific melon" Any
huge gift to stockholders would leave
the company less able to maintain it's
dividend, for hen lays no eggs after
being killed. y 10 per cent Reading
and an per cent Union Pacific may be
1919 tidings.
Dangerous railroad stocks include
New York Central, New Haven. and
ROCK Island.
Industrial issues greatly affected by
tariff reductions should be avoided by
investors. although spectators may
earn profits by selecting stocks which
have had severe declines.
DeSpitc the prosecuting IN steer
products in Germany and here. reflect :
ing the halt in business expansion, in
fuential interests in the United States
Steel Corporation are talking optinis-
tically about the common shares.
have heard whispers that the corpora :
ton has n few surprises in store for
certain Washington gentlemen who
were SO eager for n prosecution The
politicians had their innings, the com :
pany--so the story runs--intends to
The copper boom continues 1t may
go much further before tho inevitable
relapse comes. Copper shares are
speculations. ii may be well 10 remind
small investors who DO not want to
buy risks
Cold Imports Probable.
d America VIII probably import gold
from Europe. :.
The principal central hanks abroad
are all we'll supplied with the metal
and quieter trade Will ease the pres
sure for funds. But the impending
quarterly settlements entail very
heavy temporary demands, and ship
Inents of gold may be delayed until
y next month
Much nonsense IS talked and writ
IS I'm about our command of European
II gold Europe does no owe us money
we are In Europe's debt to this
Z extent OF several billion dollars Don;
forget that fact.
Also, we are getting deeper into
Burope's debt every year
Publication OF our August foreign
trade returns. showing export bal
ances Of s5o.0oo.oo for the month
and s3eo.o0o.0O0 for eight months. hat
encouraged the boastful assertions
about our ability 10 force gold frour
Europeans.
Against this surplus OF merchan.
disc sales over purchases, there must
be set what are called invisible
charges ngainat us running toward Z
bf!qion dollars annually hope Il
treat this subjcct at length within the
nsxs cew days. There are grossly