The Fargo forum and daily republican. [volume] (Fargo, N.D.) 1894-1957, 1913-07-29
JUGGLING WITH
the DEATH RATE
CHIEF sTATisTlclAN or LEADING
LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY,
NEPHEW OF FARGO MAN,
SHOWS FALLAcY or JUGGLING
WITH VITAL STATISTICS.

The following review by the statisti-
clan Of one of the leading life insur-
ance companies of the United States
shows the folly of trying TO juggle
with the actual figures in estimating
city death rates. The author of the
review is a nephew of Atty. TaylSr
Crum of Fargo:
Annual report of the department of
health of the city of Minneapolis
for the year ending Dec. 81, 1907.
This report is noticed here because
it illustrates a common fallacy in
vital statistics. On the first page Of
the report the commissioners of health
makes the following statements:
"The total number of deaths for the
year was 2,059-135 more than were
recorded during 1906. NDeducting
babies under one week of age, violent
deaths, and deaths of non-residents
who are brought to u hospitals for
treatment, computed on an estimate or
a population of 800, 900, the death-rate
per thousand is 8.56. This makes
makes Minneapolis the healthiest city
in the United States, as no other city
of the size can show SO low a death
rate"
There have been many attempts on
the part of health officers to make
SACCpllOIdly SbSu SAASNA ASS ~ ~
statements of facts or by the use or
fallacious methods of calculating
death-rates. For a statement in three
| sentences, however, embodying four
| faIlacies to reach a doubtful conclu-
sion, the above quotation is quite
unique.
First, it may be asked why the esti-
mated population of Minneapolis was
limited to 100000? To be sure the
census office at Washington by their
method would give the city credit for
| only 285.676 population or 14,324 less
| than the above guess of 100000. While
| guessing, however, it would be just
as easy to make the population $780,
900 as 800, 900, and it would make the
| city appear to be healthier.
Second, why stop the elimination of
the deaths of children under one week
of age? AS this is a purely arbitrary
deduction, why not strike out the
| deaths of children under two. or, bet
ter. four weeks of age? This would
| obviously make the city appear to be
| considerably more healthy, and posi-
bly, Minneapolis would then become
the most healthy city in the world. IL
the health of a city is to be determined
by statistical Juggling, then the more
slow and tedious sanitary processes
used in some of the less healthy cities
of the United States could be discard
ed. Why, for instance, attempt to i'm
prove milk and water supplies, rigidiy
ispected food supplies. clean streets,
etc, when an easier method yields
Quicker results.
Deaths Of non-residents are
eliminated from the death-rate call
culations in Minneapolis. If care
were taken to include in the death
rate Cor better, health-rate) all of the
residents of Minneapolis who happen
ed to die outside of the city and some
of whose bodies would certainly be
inferred elsewhere, then it might have
been excusable to deduct the deaths
of non-residents treated in Minnea-
polls hospitals. 1t is a poor rule, how
ever, which does not work both ways.
The report does not indicate how
many nor -residents and children
under week of age died in Min
neapolis during 1907. These omissions
make 1t impossible to Judge of the
Importance of the two items, but the
300, 900 estimate of population must
have included all infants, non-resi-
dents. ETC., with a few others added
for good measure.
In any event the ~"uncorrected"
death-rates should be given, so that
fair comparison car be made with
other cities.
The writer has no sympathy with
attempts to mislead the public by jug
Cling with the death returns. Minnea-
polls is a comparatively healthy city
when Judged by its annual death-rate
as calculated by the standard methods.
Whether it is or is not "the healthiest
city In the United States is a matter
Of some doubt and less Importance.
f. S. Crum.