The citizen. (Honesdale, Pa.) 1908-1914, 1913-07-22
SUMS HEAT TO Be
OUR BAROMETER
Weather Forecasts viii Be
Possible Months Ahead.
TESTS WILL TAKE YEARS.

Observatory, Predicts That Future
Scientists Will Be Able to Tell the
Temperature Six Months In Adj
vance-Observe Sun Spots.
Great interest is manifested among
scientists as the result of published
statement of Professor Edwin b. Frost,
director of the Yerkes observatory, to
the effect that it has been determined
that the "solar constant is In fact Il
variable quantity and that the effect
Of the change is not appreciable on
earth until as long as six months after
the change.
For this reason Professor Frost is of
the opinion that eventually it may be
possible to determine general weather
conditions that far ahead-in other
words, that careful observations of So
lar conditions will indicate what con-
ditions may prevail on the earth later.
In addition to the observations made
by Professor Frost similar observa-
tions have been made by Professor Fl.
81. Kimball for the government at the
station on Mount Weather.
In his statement Professor Frost de-
clares that careful observations indi-
cate that the late Professor S. p Lang
ley placed his estimate for the amount
of heat absorption by the earth at too
high figure.
Professor Laneey's Devices.
Professor Frost in his statement
comments on the ingenious devices in
vented by Professor Langley, by which
he measured the suns heat, and on the
discoveries of c. G. Abbott and F. e.
Fowle who for the past ten years
have been conducting their investiga-
tons at sea level and at Mount Whit
ney Q4,500 feet and Mount Wilson
5000 feet, in southern California. He
goes on to say:
"The most striking result of these in
veStigations is the discovery by Alb
bott and Fowle that the solar con
stant is not a constant, but a variable
in other words, that our sun is
variable star, like hundreds and thou
sands of others in the sky.
"lt was nearly ten years ago that
these investigators found evidence that
the radiation of the sun was not steady
from day to day, and ten years of
work has been devoted to determining
whether these apparent variations
were really in the sun or due to er-
rors of observation or to fluctuation in
the absorption by the earth's atmo-
sphere. They now feel justified in
stating that these fluctuations are real
and are in the sun itself, amounting
to 5 per cent or more in period of
week or ten days.
"Observations for sun spots have
now been made long enough so that
we know that they are more numerous
every eleven years, slowly declining
from maximum number to a mini
mum number about seven years later
and then rising again to a maximum
about four years after the minimum
Importance of the Discovery.
"The Importance of this discovery of
the variation in the suns heat is prob
ably obvious to the reader. The in
habitants of the earth are entirely de
pendent for their existence upon the
results of agricultural work, and moth
ing is more certain than that the ra-
diation from the sun lies at the basis
of the principal weather elements in
the earth's atmosphere,
1T should not be inferred that
sudden startling change in the suns
radiation produces an immediate effect
in the terrestrial temperatures. The
earth's atmosphere takes up these
changes and gradually communicates
them to the earth's surface. How soon
and to what degree remain to be in
vestigated.
Continuous study, extended per
haps over many years, will be required
/ to determine if these changes in ra-
dlation can be predicted in advance
and if the laws can be determined
which govern them. 1t is evidently a
most practical problem, touching the
interests of every inhabitant of the
earth"