New-York tribune., 1912-08-29

twelvemonth, greatly, no oouo'' W
satisfaction OF both. T.. ,oo. cau he
But one contingency, III lar. lts,s ,,ode Of
conceived that might reverse TINS inouI nat ~
procedure. 1t is possible. Oh coui noa,ye s., a
Rooseyelt and Johnson may rece.s
larger vote in the ELECTORAL toiies nase the
senate choice OF a Vice President wou,a
be restricted 10 Marshall and Johnson.
the two highest on the hst, &, that
Roosevelt's attitude wouio VIC onIv he
i,nnrobable circumstance can oIy
imagined but II need not be consiuetrJmu'
for the reason that the power OF ihs,,s
ing Johnson or Knox as President MVoiu
then be vested In any four .es sntnintiv
publican Senator'S. VINO lhis"'
refrain from voting.
The contest then resolves to WILSON
against the field, according to the euitor'
and there remains the vital questioh'
Is II within the range Of possibility that
any combination. tacit or fixed can WIFI
hold from Wilson and Marshall whose
plurality Is virtually assured, an actuai
majority of votes In the Electoral Col
lege?"
Voting by Groups.
From the Wilson column representing
the actual Democratic standing IN the
present House of Representatives the
editor deducts as doubtful New York C4o)'
Ohio (24), Colorado (6) and West Virginia
90, leaving q net secure total OF 2l5 out OF
the 966 required, and adds: Apparently II
IS Il fact that the two pivotal states-ooth'
possibIy, and one or the other IN any
case-are New York and Illinois. II so
Il is n fact OF the first magnitude, De
cause In these two states voting Oy
groups is a more important factor thah
I'm other commonwealth. These groups
are classified roughly as follows: Organi-
zatIon men, railroad men, business men,
anti-Prohibitionists, Roman Catholcs'
factory workers, farmers. foreign born
voters and negroes.
After analyzing the prociivities OF each
aggregation, the editor concludes that
the merest glance at the tabulation SUI
fees TO show that the strong appeal OF
Governor Wilson TO the whole people.
without heed to segregated interests and
prejudces, while constituting his CHIEF
strength as n candidate. nevertheless con-
tains elements Of no little weakness
Assuming, for example. that Roosevelt
should draw two-fifths of the Republican
vote from Taft and One-ffth OF the
Democratic vote from Wilson, Taft would
still carry Illinois by 1900 and Wilson
would have a scant 1900 In New York.
Contrary to the general view. Roosevelt's
candidacy Is regarded as harmful rather
than helpful to Wilson, chiefly because
he will get the Far Western states. which
otherwise would have gone 10 Wilson
The editor continues:
There remain the great bodies ~ work
ing men i'm both New York and Illinois
who comprise a large percentage OF the
Democratic party. To whom will they
turn? Mr. Taft offers them the Consu-
tuition. Mr.. Wilson points To his record
effective friendship. Neither. II must b"
told in truth. said in his speech OF ac-
ceptance one convincing word OF SYM
pathy with the toiling masses. Roose-
welt not only processes; but promises
everything. lie will work 10 raise their
wages. he will reduce their hours OF toll
lie will pension them In old axe. he VIII
insure their lives. he will lift the bur
dens and Tighten the homes Of their
women: he Will protect and safeguard
their children.
DO these millions OF men believe he
can or will do all Of these things? Prob
ably not. But he says that he VIII try
Does any one else? Where else have they
not and would not? II Lloyd George can
and does. why cannot and why viii not
Roosevelt? Grant that he may be
dcmagogue a hypocrite, and false
friend what OF Il? lie II Al least n
concrete image; he speaks their language;
he shakes their hands he IS neither a
theory OF government. for which they do
not care. nor an abstraction, which they
do not wish to comprehend: he IL ono
OF themselyes-a live. human. imperfect
being whom they can understand. Such
is the Roosevelt appeal.
In conclusion. SIR. Harvey, the editor OF
tho Review" summarizes the probability
and the lesson derived from his painstat-
ing analysis In these significant words;
Wilson will probably be elected. II he
carries New York he cannot be beaten.
Neither Taft nor Roosevelt can win.
vote for TAFT Is vote for sherman,
vote for Roosevelt is a vote for Shcr-
man. ,,.,,
A vote for Wilson Is q vote for Wilson.