Pine Bluff daily graphic., 1912-03-03
GENTLE SPRING
 |S DUE TODAY Weather Man Predicts First Approach of Warm
 Temperatures. ALMANAC REPORTS? Impossible, Under Present Conditions, to Forecast a Hear Ahead
 Says Weather Man.
ALMANAC REPORTS?

The first touch of real spring weather will be experienced in this city Sunday or Monday. The weather man predicts much warmer weather for this locality for the next two or three days. He bases his predic- tion on the eastward movement of an extensive storm area that is now ceneerad in Nevada. However, the Warm weather will be accompanied by occasional rains tonight and pro- bably Sunday.
 So far, the, attempts made to pre- dict the character of the weather for whole season in advance have mot proved successful in any country. Ther1 fore, i: is impracticable to pro- dict whether the coming spring will be cold or warm one. Many peo- pie believe that severe winter is usually followed by warm summer. but this belief is not founded on eli matological records. If such a Tela- tion existed between seasons it would 1 be brought oM by the records kept 1 by the weather bureau, some of which cover periods of 40 to 75 years in various parts of the United States. Seas nal weather predictions are not insusd by any scientific institution in the world today, but it does not follow that they will never be is- sued. This important problem is be- ing studied carefully by the scienti- fife bureau of all the principal coun- tries. Observations are being made at many points on the glode on the changes in solar radiation, as that part of the physics of the atmos- I pherc, in connection with meteoro- logical sounding balloons for upper air research seems to give the great est promise for the solving of the problem
 As To Weather Fakirs.
 Nature fakirs and weather fakirs deserve 70 be put into the same class. Of the latter, the so-called long range forecasters of the al- manac Gan old institution very dear to the masses) are a good example They can predict with facility and accuracy the weather for year in advance and the name of the next president of the. United States or China, after the manner of the, old time astrologers.
 Meantime, the best that can be done in the way of weather predictions for month in advance is, to consult climatological records covering a long period of years, say 25 years or mere and issue general state ment such as the following, which, in this case, applies to Pine Bluff and immediate vicinity:
 During the past 32 years, the warmest March was that of 1907, with mean temperature of 63; the coldest was that of 1906, with mean of 46. The minimum tempera- ture may fall as law as 16 degrees (this temperature occurred on two occasions (March 1, 1880. and March 4, 1893), while the maximum tempera- ture may go up as high as 89, which was the temperature recorded on March 9 of last year. However, as rule, the maximum temperature will he in che neighborhood of 62, and the average minimum about A, both of which are very comfortable temperatures. In a very cold March there may be as many as eight days with freezing (32) temperatures, While in very warm March the ther- mometer may remain above freez- ing throughout the month.
 As 10 frost, this much cam be said :: The average date of the last "kill- ing' frost Gone that is injurious to vegetation) is March 19. But, in one late spring, che. last killing frost was delayed until April IA. The above is the nearest approach to a long-range weather forecast that can he expected of a scientific bureau in the present state of science of weather forecasting.