The Topeka state journal. [volume] (Topeka, Kansas) 1892-1980, 1912-05-22

avail if there be great prosperity are.
first, the undoubted pressure of busl-
ness impulses. Business all over the
United States is at present held back
chiefly because the country is await
ing the record of the harvest of the
next summer and early fall. If those
harvestS make a new record then our
business men are firmly persuaded that
no political agitation or any demagosJ
can avail to prevent magnificent re-
viva1 of business, and this stimulus
will be increased through the demon
stration next year that the Panama
canal is a fact and not a dream.
The Real Disappointment.
1t is only within a few weeks that
our business men and bankers have
felt free to confess that the harvesters
of last summer and fall were a disap-
pointment. Now they frequently say
that but for the Recommending cotton
crop and also unexpected and truly
marvellous increase in our exportation
of manufactured commodities the pres
ent year would have been thus far one
not merely of theoretical, but of act
ual, hard times. Cotton gave US Wis
ible or apparent trade balance in our
international commerce of about 500
million dollars.
Many persons recall the brilliant
promise of the harvest of 1911 which
the fine weather of the early and the
mid spring justified. 1t was then fire.
quently said that unless there were
climatic disturbances that covered
much the greater part of the grain
producing fields of the United States
we were to have record harvest, ex-
cepting possibly in winter wheat
Business in the spring of last yea-
felt the impulse which this promise OF
a great harvest created, but the eli
mate was unpropitious. Prolonged heat.
drouth, and in some places excessive
rains played havoc with our grain har-
vest OF course the actual amount of
grain harvested was very great, but
relatively speaking, it was far less
than the spring planting and spring
promise Justified =s5aV s
Watching the Crops.
In all our large financial institutions
it is observed that while there may
be some brief discussion as to the
course of presidential politics, resemb-
ling the chatting which takes place
clubs in the evening, nevertheless wheG
the crops are mentioned the keenesC
interest is at once evinced. There be-
gin to be hopes that the harvest OF
this year may make a new record, es-
pecially the harvest of corn and other
grain Yet the experience OF last sum
mer has taught our men of affairs that
it is inexpedient to count too greatly
upon the promise of the harvest which
spring weather may give.
Should the corn crop harvest be If
excess of three billion bushels and
should wheat and oats yield handsome
ly and should there be no failure in the
hay crop, then it is certain in the view
of our business men that, no matter
how heated presidential politics may be
in October of this fall Or whatever the
result of the election of November
the business activities of the UniteC
States will be of such volume and ac-
tivity as to cause politics to be viewed
as a mere incident of the. period.
Our International Commerce.
The official statistics received from
justify the experts in es-
that the international COM
merce of the United States for the fiscal
be the greatest, both relatively and alb
solutely, ever, made in our history
There seems to be no reason now fol
doubling the accuracy. of the expert es-
Inmates that the visible or apparena
trade balance in favor rof the United
States for the fiscal year is to be some
what in excess of 500 million dollars.
The record SO far justifies also the
estimate that our exports and manu-
featured commodities in this fiscal year
will, in money value, approximate a
billion and quarter. 1t will probably
be learned early in July, when the sta
tiSticians have made their quotations.
that the United States sold to foreign
nations in the IL months which will
end on June go products of the mone5
value approximately of billion 225
million dollars. Our total international
trade for that time, exports and i'm
ports, will apparently bring the grand
total up to , billion 600 million dol
lars.
1t is no wonder that American finan-
ciers are now able to take part i'll
heavy prospective financing of railroads
and industrialS in Russia, also in the
new Chinese loan, also in the financ-
ing of the contemplated national rail-
road of Spain, and, Furthermore, in
Germany with largs
amounts of money,
HOLLAND.