Americus times-recorder. [volume] (Americus, Ga.) 1891-current, 1912-03-16
new YORK TO
figure MUCH
IN ELECTION
IS ALWAYS A Big FACTOR
Democrats Believe They Will
Garry It

mere are working overtime trying TO
figure out the outcome of the presi-
dental election. The Democrats be.
lieve they are going to win.
One of the biggest factors in the
election will be the state of New York.
New York will go Democratic, say the
Democrats, who are building great
hopes on carrying the state.
The Republicans will not admit that
they will lose New York. Republican
leaders are relying upon the large
interests" to pull them through in the
Empire State. Despite the air of Sc
curity that the Republicans assume in
New York they realize what it would
mean to lose the state and are not
under estimating the strength of the
Democrats. Both parties will leave no
stone unturned in the coming presi-
Dental election to win the popular
will of the people of New York.
AS the next national election draws
near the Importance of New York will
be emphacized. That state, always
great battle g ruondniw ETAOIN N
great battle ground in presidential ell
ections, is now more so than ever.
In the last electoral college there
We're 4S3 votes. OF this number Taft
got 321 and Bryan 1862 Bryan received
the votes of Alabama, Arkansas, Col
orado, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky.
Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Ne
braska, Nevada, North Carolina, Okla
as and Virginia. These states then
had a vote of 1872 in the ELECTORAL col
iege, and under the reapportionment
bill will have ia. There is but little
1oubt that the Democrats will again
control these states in the next cleo
ton. Nothing will break the solid
South in the next campaign.
In the next electoral college there
will be 531 votes including Arizona
and New Mexico. Two hundred anG
sixty-six votes will be necessary for
an election.
Should the Democrats retain the
1862 votes they had in the last electoral
college it will be necessary for them
to gain 104 votes in the next college
70 win the presidency.
President Taft will in all probable
ity not carry his home state, Ohio, if
Gov. Judson Harmon is nominated for
president by the Democrats. Many
Democratic leaders assert that if
Harmon is nominated he will carry
the state by large popular majority
Harmon is about the only man who
could make things uncomfortable for
Taft in Ohio. If Harmon wrests the
state away from the Republicans it
would go a long ways to assure the
presidency to the Democrats.
An important state that will have a
great deal to do with the election OF
the enxt president is Illinois. The
chances favor its retention by the
Republicans. 1t can hardly be class
ed as doubtful state.
Eliminating Ohio and Illinois from
the Democratic column the Democrats
may possibly gain these states: Cali
fornia, 10; Missouri, IS; New Jersey,
IA; Minnesota, IL; Montana, 4; West
Virginia, s; Arizona, 3; Delaware, 3;
Conecticus, Z; making a total of 81.
These states are all doubtful and it is
probable that the Democrats will
carry them in the next election.
Maine is now Democratic and may
remain So
If the Democrats could gain the A.
votes in the New York delegation the
election of their candidate would be a
comparatively easy matter. All these
calculations are based upon the last
reapportionment bill. Besides increas-
ing the House Of Representative
membership from 391 to 433 it has
given excellent ground for study OF
the next presidential election.
This bill may have an important
ant bearing upon the election. 1t
was passed in the Senate only after
Senator Root, of New York, made
fight to leave the membership of the
House at its present number. This
motion being defeated he tried to fix
the membership at 405, but this also
was defeated by a combined vote of
the Democrats and insurgents.
With a good strong vice presidential
candidate from New York and Har-
mon from Ohio the Democrats ought
to be able to carry both of these
states. If they carry New York and
Ohio there will be little doubt that the
Republicans will be licked to fraz-
zle" Should the Democrats nominate
some other candidate than Harmon
they would have no chance at all
carrying Ohio. Taft would undoubt-
eddy sweep the state because it is his
home state and is also NORMALLY Re-
publican If the Democrats lose Ohio
they will stand good chance of de-
feat. If they lose New York on top of
Ohio in all probability they would lose
the election. 1t will be the best pos
Sihlp nolitica1 Stratapv for tho Dpmo-