Orleans County monitor. [volume] (Barton, Vt.) 1872-1953, 1912-11-13
POLITICAL CONCLUSIONS AND
FORECASTS

Of course everyone will review the |
outcome of election and the Monitor
takes that prerogative.
In the first place it was democratic |
victory. The contributary causes of
the victory are the pivotal points about |
which discussion will center, and the
most common arguments will be be-
tween the progressives and republl-
cans. Each will claim the other split
the party and each will prove it to his
own satisfaction.
The fact remains however that unit
ed opposition could have won. Wilson
polled practically the same popular
vote that Bryan got in 1908, showing
conclusively that there was little de-
Election from that party. What slight
detection there was filled with
new democrats and an occasional
Wilson republican. The truth is,
Wilson won an electoral landslide with
a few thousand less popular votes than
were cast for Bryan in 1908 when
Bryan was defeated in the electoral
college by Taft by almost two votes to
one. Figures show that in most states
the democratic vote of 1912 did not
vary materially from the democratic
vote in the last few presidential cleo
lions. Take the democratic vote in
Vermont for instance and we find that
Wilson got approximately rs per cent
of the total vote. In 1908 Bryan got
was elected, he received 20 per cent
of the total Vermont vote. New York
state as another example shows that
Wilson got 672, 900 votes this year,
only 5000 more than Bryan had
in 1908 and 10000 less than was cast
for the democratic candidate in 1904
and 5000 less than in 1900. This analy-
sis seems to show conclusivley that the
democratic victory was not due so
much to a popular uprising for Wilson
as to the chopping and splitting of the
oppOsl Ion.
The progressive and republican pop
ular ~.e combined is over 1900, 00O
votes more than that received by Will
son, and admitting that no candidate
that the republicans could have nom.
mated would have poIIed all these
votes. the margin is so great that sue
cess might reasonably have been ex.
pected this fall with united efforts.
Taking two states again for examples
we find that the combined Taft anC
Roosevelt vote in Vermont was ap
proximately 45, 500. about 5000 more
than was cast for Taft four years ago
but 1000 less than was cast for McKin
ley and almost the exact number tina
was cast for Garfield back in 1880. Il
New York state the combined Roose
welt and Taft vote was SAT, 000 abou
%, 200 less votes than that state cas-
for Taft in 1908, about 10000 NOR
than was cast for the republican ticke
in 1904 but 25, 900 more than was cas-
for Mckinley in 1900
The result is summed up like this
The democrats, casting their average
normal vote, unitedly. were able t
carry 40 states. The usual normal re
publican vote was cast, but divided
progressives and republicans winning
together eight states with a popula
vote exceeding the democrats b.
100000.
Admitting democratic victory and
hot
gressive cause be termed? To them
is a victory. The Boston Journ;
says: ''Out of the epochal election
1912 the progressive party comes wit
great victory such as is registere
only in a generation" Few outsid
the party see it that way howeve
One paper remarks that while Il
party cast heavy presidential vote
was largely personal. Votes f
Roosevelt and not for the party.
substantiate this it cites the fact tn
very few progressive candidates W
in congress: onal and state polite
Even in states where the national pl
81 -Ive ticket won many voters fail
to follow the party down the line II
state affairs. This makes the pal
topheavy, and differs materially fir,
the founding of the republican pa,
in 1856 when at it's first election ma
minor officers were elected and
foundation thus established for
presidential victory four years lat
However one may look at this it v
probably take four years in which
determine what the ultimate outco
will be. Only two great parties
exist. Many things may happen, {
the growth of the socialist party W
now abost 700, 900 votes must
reckoned with. One naturally expe
that either the republican or progr
sive party must die With a success