Washington standard. [volume] (Olympia, Wash. Territory) 1860-1921, 1912-10-11
ADVANTAGE LIES
WITH GOV. WILSON,
SAYS SAM BLYTHE
Political Writer Says Roosevelt s
Nomination Makes Democratic
Victory Probable.
COVERS WHOLE COUNTRY.
Predicts $4,000 for New Jerseyite
in Missouri-Ohio and Indiana
Also for Him.

''First-Mr. Roosevelt's nomination
certain.
"Second-Mr Roosevelts nomina-
ton makes the election of Mr.. Wilson
probable
These were two conclusions reached
by Samuel G. Blythe, probable the best
known political writer of the day.
after trip of impartial personal in
vestigations conducted this summer
and early fall in Washington, Oregon,
California, Utah, Nevada. Idaho, Wy
Oming, Montana, Colorado, Kansas,
Nebraska, Missouri. Iowa, Illinois,
Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and the
Southwest. Further than these two
he would not commit himself. though
leaning throughout toward Governor
Wilson.
For instance, he says:
Missouri. Oklahoma. Arizona, New
Mexico. Indiana. Ohio and Michigan
all have local situations that compii
cate the national situations, though, in
a broad sense, the national situation in
each one of these states is identical
with the national situation elsewhere.
The probabilities are that Wilson will
carry the Southwest, Oklahoma, Ari-
zona and New Mexico. He certainly
will if the Vermont percentages hold
good, though Roosevelt has many
friends in that country.
Missouri has nominated complete
third-party ticket, but Missouri Pro-
gressives find themselves without the
support of Governor Hadley. who shone
so brilliantly as Progressive at the
Taft convention in Chicago.
Roosevelt will get good many votes
irP the counties--a good many. TAis
will leave things in excellent shape for
Wilson, who ought to carry that state
by from 10000 to $4,000 majority if
things continue there as favorable for
him as they are now.
Indiana is the home of the Demo
cratic nominee for vice president. Gov
ernor Marshall, and Indiana not only
has an Old Guard Republican remnant
that is implacable, but it also has some
100000 dependable Democrats who vote
the ticket no matter what befalls. Thus.
Roosevelt and Beveridge are certain to
get many votes in Indiana. Wilson's
SllduScS IcI yiHS lHC sldtS Sttu
best at present, for the total vote will
probably be about 100000.
Ohio presents the same conditions as
Indiana. but the other way round. Ohio
is President Tafts home state. There
will be straight-out, clean-cut fight
between the Taft men and the Roose-
welt men all down the line Ohio will
east, or should cast, approximately L.
100000 votes this year. Chairman Fin
ley. of the Democratic committee,
claims there is little Democratic disaf-
fection, and that Wilson will hold the
| the normal half million Democrats in
the state and gain large number of
| old-line Republican votes, sufficient to
offset whatever reduction in that vote
there may be by reason of Democrats
! going to Taft or to Roosevelt. If Will
son can hold the half million he will
carry the state, for there seems to be
no chance that Mr.. Taft can carry
Ohio.
Neither the Taft men nor the Roose-
welt men. when speaking candidly, ex-
pect to carry the state, and both expect
Wilson to carry it, There are more
Progressives in Cleveland than in Gin
cinnati, and some of the counties are
strongly Progressive and some are
standing pat for Taft The result is
likely to be that Wilson will carry the
state, that Representative James M.
Cox, Democrat, will be elected governor
and that the congressional delegation
will be practically all Democratic.
There is little hope that Mr.. Taft can
carry the state, even among his strong
est supporters. at the time this is writ
ten. Things may brighten for him, but
unless there is a great Democratic shift
to him he will not get the Ohio electoral
vote, and there is no Democratic disaf-
fection in sight-that is, no shift that
will not be Offset by the Republicans
who will vote for Wilson
And he ends it up this way:
Thus. from the Pacific Coast east to
the Pennsylvania line. these conclu-
sions seem impartial in mid September,
as they certainly are meant to be
impartial: Theodore Roosevelt Will get
large vote, a larger vote than cir
cumstances indicated a month ago; Mr..
Wilson holds the advantage because
of the division on the old Republican
vote and the determination of many
old line Republicans to vote for him for
and Mr.. Taft has a hopeless fight in
most of this territory