The Hawaiian gazette., 1912-11-22
JAPAN MAY NOT
USE CANAL MUCH
Suez Will Still Get Freights for
Europe-Trade Small in
South America.


problems which the opening of the
Panama Canal must present and they
have already taken steps to examine
the possibilities and probabilities sys.
tematically and thoroughly. The Nip
pom Yusen, Togo Kisen and Osaka Sho-
sen Kaisha recently sent agents to the
Canal Zone for the purpose of ascer-
tanning all the factors in the situation,
so far as that is possible, but it would
appear that the elements of uncertain
ty bulk SO largely in all the calcula-
tions that any forecast of develop
| ments, and accordingly any measures
to meet these developments, are ex-
ceedingly hard to frame. 1t may be
said. however, that the opinion is held
one in competent quarters at least, that
the opening of the canal is by no
means certain to affect the far Eastern
trade materially, at any rate for some
| time to come.
In the first place since the voyage to
| Europe via the canal will only be a
few days shorter than that via Suez,
| and ships taking the latter route will
be at a disadvantage in having far
fewer ports of call at which they can
pick up and discharge cargo and pas
sengers and take on coal, it is not
believed here according to informa-
ton which reaches the Advertiser, that
there will be any diversion of traffic
| from the Suez route so far as vessels
bound to and from Europe are con-
| cerned. If a vessel were to follow
| the route to Europe via Honolulu and
Panama, she could not expect any
cargo other than that billed through,
since the trade between Japan and the
other countries touched en- route is neg
ligible, and that between American
ports (including Honolulu) is forbid
den to all save American vessels. More
over the vessel would have to carry a
considerable amount of coal for steam
ing across the Pacific, and if the stock
were renewed at Panama the price
would probably be considerably higher
than that prevailing at the ports along
the very route since fuel at Panama
will have to be carried thither from
the United States. Should oil re used
as fuel, the case will be somewhat al
tered, but even then the lack of oppor-
tunity of inter.port trade, will not be
affected.
s. American Trade Small.
Again, trade betw cen the Far East
and the eastern States of South Amer
lea is so small and will apparently re-
main so small for many years that there
is little prospect of profitable use of
the canal for vessels plying between
Asiatic ports and Rio, Montevideo and
Buenos Ayres Even in the case of the
western states of South America, which
are so much nearer Japan, it has been
found necessary largely to subsldize the
Y. K. X. line, so small is the volume
of trade The bulk of the inward car.
goes consists of Chilean nitrate for fer
tilizing purposes, and although there
is a growing export trade of rice from
Rangoon, etc, the outbound cargoes are
not large and the loss would be stu
heavier on the 7. X. X. service were II
not for the emigrant traffic. Should eml'
grafton be encouraged to Brazil and
Argentina and these latter countries
raise no objection, it is thought that
line to Rio and Buenos Ayres with
sailings every two months might be
warranted, but such a line would al
most certainly be loss at the starr
and much depends ON what the gov
eminent would do It will be remem
bered that the renewal of all the ship
ping subsidy Legislation comes up fol
decision the year after next.
Would Not Help Silk.
On the other hand, it is deemed high
" probable that some of the trade witt
the Eastern division of the United
States will be diverted from the raj
and sea route via San Francisco and
Seattle to the all-sea route via Panama
IN 10
that the commodity which constitutes
two-thirds of Japan s exports to Amer
lea, silk, is so valuable cargo anc
therefore so costly to insure that the
extra time required for its Transports
ton via Panama would not only destroy
all the saving that might be effected
through the lower sea freight rates but
must render adhesion to the rail-and-sea
route certainty. 1t IS considered
likely. however, that most of the othel
articles of the japanese export trade
such as "curios,' porcelain, mating
and possibly tea-as regards this last
is some conflict of opinion-will very
probably be diverted to the Panama
route, while raw cotton, machinery anc
oil. which bulk so largely in the Ameri
can imports to Japan may also come by
} the canal. The possibility that the
: transcontinental lines may reduce theil
through freights to such point as II
retain the traffic in any case is appar
emily removed by the fight for the con
troll over the railways now exercised by
, the Interstate Commerce Commission.
1t is of interest, finally, to hear that
| the Panama Canal Act with its exemp
ton from canal tolls of American yes
sells in the coastwise trade does not ap
pear to cause any great anxiety here
In the first place il is recognized that
the American coastwise trade is in any
case barred to foreign vessels and in the
second it is not thought that this priv
ilege will be utilized, by means of trans
shipment, to degree sufficient to in
lure foreign vessels carrying goods be
tween the Orient and the Atlantic ports
Rev. J. Wadman has returned from