New-York tribune., 1912-03-11
FINANCIAL MARKET
indications of Real Improvement,
DESPITE Unfavorable Factors.

market for securities that there should
be a succession of considerable price ad-
vances and subsidences, such as has al
ready been witnessed, before the start
ing OF the upward movement which
really presages the return of general
prosperity. The indications, though are
that the current advance has substan-
tial basis in reviving business confidence
and increasing consumptive demand, al
though the improvement in general con-
ditions may be less rapid than it might
be if 1912 were not presidential year
and although the labor situation con-
tains possibilities which may result in
renewed stock market recession and in
retardation of the restoration Of the
country's business to prosperity volume.
Colonel Roosevelt's proposal TO lead
the people of the United States by
short cut across Constitution Hill is not
being received with general favor, and
in these early days of the campaigning
for the nomination for the Presidency
the sentiment of the voters, taking the
country over, is apparently tending to
conservatism. Mr.. Bryan has three
times been rejected as the Democratic
candidate for Chief Executive because Of
his espousal of views less radical than
those championed by Colonel Roosevelt,
and the best opinion in the financial
world is that President Taft will be re-
nominated and that the Democratic
party will this summer not venture to
place in the field against him any thor
ougb going radical, the prospects favor
ing Mr.. Tafts reelection.
The anthracite coal miners having de-
! livered their demands and the operators
having rejected them, conferences be-
tween the opposing parties will soon oe
gin. The agreement under which the
miners have for several years been work
! ing will expire on April 1, and if within
the next three weeks an adjustment of
the differences shall not be effected a
labor contest of grave importance will
be precipitated, which may involve also
the bituminous coal miners and result in
a serious paralysis Of industry. In Great
Britain the dispute has developed into a
general strike, which has caused a situa-
tion so intolerable, owing to the enforced
idleness Of hundreds of thousands OF
workingmen in industries dependent
upon coal supply for their operation,
that a speedy settlement is believed TO
be inevitable a view supported by the
strength of the London securities mar
ket during the last week. Similarly, if "A
coal strike should come in this country
it would probably be not of long dura
tion. although even a temporary sus-
pension of production would entail severe
losses on the country. The locomotive
engineers Of roads east of Chicago, too,
have presented their demands. which are
still under consideration by the railroad
presidents; but an agreement upon these
questions will be reached, it is commonly
believed.
The receivership for the Kansas City,
Mexico & Orient road, ordered few
days ago, was not in any way significant
Of general trouble in the railway field.
The Orient road is a "one-man PROPOSE
ton" begun nearly twelve years ago and
not yet fully constructed, although vari-
Gus stretches as completed have been
placed in operation. Many millions Of
dollars have been raised abroad for ITS
construction, and the disappointment
caused 10 European investors may, it is
feared, prejudice them to some extent
against securities Of American railways
generally.
Trustworthy testimony is coming from
merchants in various parts of the coun-
try and from the reviews which weekly
present a sur ~ Of the entire field that
business development is displaying
steady and conservative increase and
that solid basis of confidence is being
re- established. The increase in the vol
ume of bank clearings is one Of the vis-
ible indications COrrOborative Of these
reports, and another is the continued de-
crease I'm the number Of idle freight cars,
now less than 5000, against about 190,-
600 year ago. This great decrease,
though, cOnnOtes an industrial revival
more rapid than has actually occurred
and may be partly explained by a tenn
porary demand for cars to move traffic
delayed by the unusual severity of the
winter just ending.
Harsh though the winter has been, its
abundant snowfalls have made for good
to the winter wheat crop, which prom
iscs an excellent harvest. Stocks Of
wheat and corn in farmers hands at the
beginning of this month were the
smallest for the date in seven or eight
years, which means increased acreage
ills season for spring wheat and for
corn, and, with favorable weather, large
additions to the national wealth and
profitable traffic for the railways, which
have suffered severe losses, especially in
the great grain growing states, during
the winter. With increasing gross earn
ings and the cutting off Of the additional
expense due to the severe weather the
railways will be in a position to make
more liberal outlays for betterment and
for equipment.
The copper industry, which was among
the first to feel the effect of the panic,
owing to the necessity Of deferring many
DldllS IOl tltNll lllNdNlpl Vi railway anu
other properties, now appears TO be dis
tinctly on the up grade, with prices ad-
vancing in response to a strong demand
for the metal from consumers both here
and abroad, and the surplus stocks on
both sides of the Atlantic have been re-
duced to amounts justifying the expecta-
tion of higher prices. In the iron and
steel industry the outlook is sirnilarlv ON.