Atlanta semi-weekly journal. (Atlanta, Ga.) 1898-1920, 1912-10-08
HERALD FORECAST
SHOWS THAT WILSON
IS LEADING RIVALS
Grand Total of Test Ballots
Gives New Jersey Governor
Big Majority Over His Near
est Opponent
Copyright. 1872 by The New York
Heraldl


ne week. the Herald's nationwide can
vass q the presidential situation. Gov
srnor wilson appears to be leading his
TWO rivals.
Prssideat TAFT mas pulled up some
What during the week Republicans in
enc several states. who had gone over
the Bun Moose camp have returned to
the Taft fold Just how extensive this
movement T.. IS not Indicated. The
presidents friends are far more cheerful
than,they were a week ago. They say
she tide has turned their way. They
declare the shift hack from the Bull
Moose 10 the president win easily give
Mr.. Taft frst place IN the race before
election They count on the support OF
those Republicans. who. in many in
stances. had openly announced that, be-
Iieving the presidents eletcion impos-
sibIe. they would cast their ballots for
Governor wilson to insure the defeat OF
The Bull o1Iose candidate
one OF the interesting features OF the
week IS the apparent gains made by the
president In New England Reports from
special correspondents there indicate that
II the election were held at this time, he
would be certain OF carrying New Hamp-
shire. about which there was some doubt
and that he would win Vermont which
until the last few days was in the bal
snce-
But. even with his apparently increased
strength. he appears considerably behind
the other two candidates. Governor wiz
sons friends say their candidate cannot
0e defeated The Bull Moose managers.
privately expressing no great hope Of
victory for their candidate. say they have
already insured the defeat OF the presi-
dent. In many parts OF the country the
third terrer has gained in following
WILSON IN FIRST PLACE.
Straw votss aggresating approx
mately 10000 taken in twenty-nine
states. put Governor Wilson in nrst
place. They indicate that he Is lead
ting in popular support in twentv-three
states of the twenty-nine- The Bun
Moose nominee leads in i've and the
president in one. Utah The same
votes put the Bun Moose IN second
place in eigssssn states Governor
Wilson IN six and the president In
ave Special correspondents largely
bear out these estimates. There are
some discrepancies IN some instances
.hey are very marked But this IS al
ways true as between the investigations
OF trained correspondents and test bal
lots
AS has been explained. the Herald
Is not confusing the two methods OF
fr
expected 10 stand on its own bottom.
each is conducted entirely apart from
the other.
The test ballots were taken with
greatest care in mining camps in the
southwest, among grangers and ranch
ers OF the northwest, among bankers,
manufacturers and toilers in the great
centers Of population. and among the
great army OF wage earners IN the
vast mercantile establishments in the
cities in the east The correspondents
have talked with political leaders in
every congressional district in the land.
They have talked with the voter in
every walk OF life. They have made
every possible effort to get an accur-
ate gauge on sentiment as It exists at
the present time
A grand total OF the test ballots col
lected by the Herald gives Governor
Wilson. So.26I. the Bull Moose candi-
date 20.74S: the president 1905, and
Debs, 4.sS2. In presenting these fig
ures for the interest and consideration
OF its readers il is but fair for the
Herald 10 say that in all presidential
or gubernatoriai campaigns IL has been
noted for the progressive-the enthusi-
astic and fervent partisans-always
rush forward to cast their votes. while
the conservatives are inclined to be
Indifferent. How far thfs factor dg-
ures in the present contest IL is OF
course impossible 10 estimate
1t SHOULD be called TO the attention Of
the reader that, while the number OF
ballots taken IS large, 50 far as straw
ballots so. IL is infnitesimal compared
with the millions OF votes which will be
cast on Nov. 5. In the present instance
however. IL Is significant that wherever
the ballots are taken. whether among
the cowboys OF the wild and woolly
west OF among the street car drivers in
New England. the general result Is
much the same.
The Herald viii continue taking these
ballots. Next Sunday IL viii present
tables containing more than 10000
votes. All this material. coupled with
the Investigations OF its special CORE
spondents. who viii be kept at theiI
tasks steadily, will be used 10 base a
forecast II the issue OF the Herald OF
Sunday. Nov 3. Meantime the reviews
and calculations OF ballots will be pub
Iished each Sunday.
In the straw vote from Connecticut
the Bull Moose candidate is in the lead
In the reports from the special CORE
spondents who visited the Nutmeg State
N is Indicated that Governor Wilson Is
well In the lead and that II the election
were held az this time he would b
elected They report also that the pres.
fdeut is decidedly stronger than he was
and that he Is now second 10 Wilson.
To get more accurate line on condi-
lions in this small. but important state
the Herald viii take many more test
ballots and win have it's correspondents
make other tours Of the state.
States in which President Taft has
made gains are Connecticut. New Jer-
sey Maryland, New York. Pennsylvania
Minnesota and Michigan. \ IN many
parts OF the Empire state there are in
dications that Republicans temporarily
under the Bull Moose have strayeC
back into the regular fold In the Key
stone State the presidents following Il
growing In some OF the mining sections
In Minnesota the drift back 20 Taft II
evident but here. as in Michigan. Il
is not very marked.
WILL VOTE FOR WILSON.
This movement IS in part onset. how