The advocate. [volume] (Charleston, W. Va.) 1901-1913, 1912-06-06
is DUEL1,'s PREDICTION, WHO
RISKS REPUTATION ON COL
.t'a| ONBISS VICTORY. -
Sees Only 400 Votes
For' Piesid'tnt Taft, Does Ex-Judge
who Givss Careful Analysis Of the
Facts arti Sentiments Which Lead
Him to Make Prediction OF Sweep
Ing VictCry. ':.... .., ,"-...>

Ex-Judge Charles H. Duell, who has
Deen IN many presidential campaigns
and who is chairman of the Roosevelt
committee Of New York, made the
following statement few days ago:
Having established somewhat Of a
repu;a,i2r for correct political fore
casts, / lave thus far refrained from
making any predictions as to the Re-
publicaH nominee for president. 1t is
Il matter Of public record that In the
hfrins tf 1895 l predicted the ~nomi-
nation of Mckinley and in the early
summer gave out statement show
ing the number Of electoral votes he
would receive and from what states.
November proved this to be substan-
TALLY correct. In 1900 my published
prediction as to the number Of elec-
tora1 votes President mckinley would
receive varied but little from the ac-
tual result. In the spring of-u19O4 I
predicted the nomination of Roosevelt
and stated that he would receive 317
electoral votes against any Democrat
who might be named. He received
3l4 Of the votes stated, together with
the vote Of Missouri, and one vote
from Maryland In 1908 I predicted
that Mr.. Taft would receive 322 cleo
toral votes. AS a matter Of fact he
received 1928. In every instance |
gave my reasons for my conclusions.
For many mClths have carefully
observed the outlook and during the
btst two months have carefully gone
.o>er the conditions existing through
"nt the United States and from time
to time have revised my estimates Of
the probable outcome Of the Chicago
convention.
Not as An officer of any political
committee, but as an individual, I am
clearly Of the opinion and willing to
iisk NV reputation as forecaster
tron the prediction that Colonel
Roosevelt will have at the least 600
delegates on the first ballot in the
C2icago convention. This number is
irrespective of how the national COM
mittee may decide the contests that
will come before it. Should that COM
mitlee use steam roller methods" in
deciding the cases coming before 1t
the convention will have an anti
Taft vote of at least $50, which will
b sufficient to correct any unfair
decisions Of that committee. In my
opin: on, Mr.. Taft's friends will not
have more than 400 votes upon any
1e5: question. These reasons lead me
to my cCnclusions:
"First--A careful review of the
prevailing conditions Of political
t!,ought and, as believe, correct
understanding of the wishes of large
majority of the Republican voters,
coupled with somewhat intimate
knowledge Of the zeal preference of
many of the delegates now claimed
eor Mir. Taft. -
"'Second--Far and above everything
Else, however, is the wonderful hold
that Theodore Roosevelt has upon the
la!k and file of our voters through
t cir cChviction that everything for
Wh.,h he stands looks to the Dctter-
,nont Of our conditions. -----------
"Third-The determination Of II
larse majority of the voters to smash
Cac party machines, which, almost
without exception, oppose Roosevelt s
Elimination.
"Fourth--The reaction in favor Of
Rtrsevelt which results from the bit
Ter opposition from the press-Demo-
cratic and Republican~-in substantial
jy all Of the large cities Of the coun-
Try.
a"Fifth--The unpopularity of the
big lawyers as political leaders,
Whether it be Just or otherwise, the
average man doubts the sincerity of
the legal defenders Of special privil-
eyes and is unwilling to trust them
as the guardians of its rights.
"Sixth--The results OF primaries and
conventions in the chain Of states ex-
tending from ocean to ocean, includ-
ing Maine, Pennsylvania, West Vir-
ginia, Illinois, Nebraska and Oregon
The result in these states shows that
he demand for Roosevelt's nomination
is not confined to any locality.
"Seventh-The desire of the average
politician to be on the winning side