Atlanta semi-weekly journal. (Atlanta, Ga.) 1898-1920, 1912-09-06
THE PROPHECY FROM VERMONT.

Vermont, the gray soothsayer. Of Presidential
years, has spoken; and it's meaning is unmistakabe
\ united Democracy will march TO national Tic'
tory in November, while the Republican ranks, hope
lessy sundered between Standpattors and Third
Termers, will go down in defeat. -'---- 80
For more than half a century, ermont's State
election in presidential has been remark
ably accurate index of political conditions the
country over and unfailing forecast of national
results. Whenever the Republican plurality in these
elections has fallC under twenty-five thousand
votes, Democratic president has been elected the
following November Thus in 1884 when the Yer;
mont Republicans gained plurality Of only twenty
two thousand in their State election in September,
Grover Cleveland swept the country in the Peg,
Dental contest 1888 the Republicans State ma
jority sped forward again to nearly twenty-nine'
thousand and the Democrats " defeated at the
national polls In 1892, another slump in the
Republicans Vermont majority, which at that time
sank to nineteen thousand, seven hundred and two,
and again there followed national Democratic vic
tory. So the interesting record Ia run, from time
out of mind; wherefore the results of the Vermont
election last Tuesday may be accepted peculiar
ly significant presage of what is to happen in the
presidential this autumn.
The fact that in 1912 socalled new party figured.
in the contest of the Green Mountain State has in no
wise altered confused but, on the contrary has
greatly emphasized the signln~---- lie returns.
l.hiIe the Roosevelt movement drew many votes
from the regular Republican camp it left the Demo
cratic strength unshaken Indeed. the Democrats
+nlv hirtv cpnt
over their following of four years ago. And, what
is the most prophetic circumstance of all, the COM
Jincd Uote of the rcgucr Republicans and the Third
Tcrmers gives them together plurality of only
some ttocntyoHe thousand If, then, history is in
anywise to repeat itself, the election of Woodrow
Wilson in 1912 is fereshadowed even more clearly
tt that of Grover Cleveland in 'eighty-our and
'ninety-two.
This is apparent from whatever standpoint the
Vermont returns are studied, whether from that Of
the Democrats, the Republicans or of the Roosevelt
party Note the relative showing of the three:
The Republican candidate for Governor received
26,1OO votes.
The Democratic candidate for Governor. received
2O.lOO.
The Roosevelt candidate for Governor received
1850.
If we compare the strictly Republican vote of
1912 with that of 1908. when the Republicans poled
strength of 1885, wefnd decrease of more than
$4,000 votes. or about forty-two per cent.
Furthermore if we compare the combined vote OF
the Republicans and the Roosevelt followers with the
solid Republican vote of 1908, we find decrease of
practically four thousand votes.
Thus it is evident that the split In the Republican
party has reduced the Old Guard to hepessness and
at the same time has left the Roosevelt freeancers
poweress to check the steady and militant march of
Democracy.
The fact that the Roosevelt followers in Vermont
polled some fifteen thousand votes signifies a vast
deal as regards the present fortunes Of the Repub
lican party but so far as the Democrats are con-
eerned it is meaningless. save that it shows their
strategic advantage For those fifteen thousand votes
il should be marked came from Republican not from
Democratic ranks The Democrats were not only
unwavering but they pressed ,ardenty forward with
several thousand more votes than in $685. and as
the record indicates, evens had there been third
party movement they would still have reduced, their
opponents normal majority to a point that spells
tional defeat
1t may therefore, be said with reason and fair
ness that in Vermont, the barometric State of the
Union, the ThirdTermers campaign has signihed
nothing more than fatal split in the Republican
lines It has merely carried step further the bitter
strife that rent the Republican convention at
Chicago. 1t has simply brought forth the. grabbed
fruit of those continual chickering's which have been
steadily growing within the Republican organization.
This could not be said, had the Roosevelt movement
drawn any appreciate support from the Democrats
but as the records prove, it fetched no response
from that quarter. On the contrary, the Democrats
rema ming firmly united among themselves, drew
tellngly' from the Republican column. They polled
some ten thousand votes than the Third-Term
ers They lacked only six thousand votes of tying