The Birmingham age-herald. [volume] (Birmingham, Ala.) 1902-1950, 1912-07-28
UNIQUE FACTORS
IN PRESIDENTIAL
CAMP A|GN OF 1912
Analysis Shows How RoOse-
welt Movement Will Help
Governor Wilson
WHERE ELECTORAL
VOTES ARE SECURED
Democrats By Carrying States Bryan
Carried in 1908 Will Need Only
SO More Votes to AS
sure Victory
BY c. e. STEW ART

Washington, July 27-lSpecial EVERY
general election is a law within Itself.
There are conditions political and general
which bring about results and produce eff
fects that are peculiar to that election
only. OF course prevlous5 elections arc
guides in way and may be used in so
far as the sentiment of the people and
the issues under discussion are similar.
But generally speaking every four years
there have been changes in such proper
lions in almost every state in the union as
to make the election of a President and
vice president a proposition which fore
casters and expert political prophets dis
agree upon in proportion to their own po-
litical faiths and numbers.
Every election always has two ele-
ments entirely different from the proceed
ing election. They are: First, the element
of the changes of sentiment among all
the people. the extent of which is usually
Impossible of computation, until after the
election itself and when, of course. 1t be-
comes useless, only as proof of a con-
vincing nature for some lucky forecaster
who has guessed it. Second. the element
of new voters who will participate in the
election and who have never before fig
ured in such a contest, and are naturally
an unknown quantity
Third Element in 1912
In the election of 1919 there lis third
element. This third element is the most
important of all and will without doubt
have considerable influence in the final re-
suits Whether enough to change the re-
suit from what 1t would be with this ele-
ment removed 1t is impossible at this
time to say. 1t is the element of the third
party which is to draw its strength
mainly from the consistent winner or
presidential elections for the past 90 years,
the republican party The third party
movement is not new. OF course this one
is new; we have had no such party as
this-that is, brought to life under con-
ditions similar to this-but we have had
the third party the populist party. and 1t
grew to proportions of political impor-
lance that at one time threatened to rival
the two old leading parties of the nation
The difference, aside from the creeds.
which are vastly similar between the
third party OF today and the third party
of 16 years ago are principally these
The third party of IS years ago drew It's
strength from both the old parties. and
in order to get possession of the state
governments in which 1t was strong, 1t
ibid not hesitate to fuse its forces, with the
weaker of the old parties in that partic-
ular state and by this combination Sc
cure control of the states patronage. FIRE.
quently the populist party would fuse
with the republicans in one state and de-
feat the democrats who were in power,
and in another state they would fuse
with the democrats to overthrow the re-
publcans. This was one of the policies
of the populite party that was the final
cause for Its dissolution, and the drifting
back of its members into the old parties
with which they originally affiliated.