New-York tribune., 1912-02-09
PROSPECT GLOOMY FOR
REPUBLIC IN CHINA
The Tribune's Peking Corre-
Spondent Regards It as a
PreCarious Experiment.
AN AGE OF CHAOS AHEAD
Intervention and Possible Parti.
tion of the Empire by the
Powers Loom Up Not
Indistinctly.

Indistinctly
'By the REGULAR Correspondent Of The Tribune
in Peklngl
Peking, Dec. 2s-Gloomy. indeed. is the
prospect which China faces to-day IN.
precarious experiment OF a republic seems
certain TO be matter OF the immediats
future: the Manchu throne Is doomed >
disappear and. unless all signs fail ana
those who observe the situation front
Peking itself are sadly out OF perspective.
China will be in for a long perod-sprcaI-
Ing over months and may hc years-cr
chaos and uncertainty, with foreign inter.
vention and possible partition looming up
not indistincty I'm the background
1t seems wholly impossible that a repuS-
lie can succeed Maybe it can. but II .,
does it will seem more like miracle than
the dongs of man. Thus far the reyol J.
tionary leaders in the South who have SUI
cessfully supported their demands for
republican form OF government fail 10 shor
the cohesion, powers OF organization, con-
cord and cooperation which would seem
essential TO the preliminary steps toward
such radical thing-for ChIna-ss p re-
publican form OF government. There are
various factions. and once "A republic -
proclaimed there Will be a scramble for
office which will doubtless lead To troubles
and turbulence within the rebel ranks. H.
is tremendous situation, full OF dire pos
sibilties and little else.
An edct was issued Yesterday wherein
the throne agreed to the calling Of a ra-
tional convention. composed OF representa-
tiyes from ali OF the provinces. This con-
vention would decide the crucial question
as TO tho form Of government and tho
throne. so the edct clearly indicates viii
abide by the decision. II IS safe 10 say that
no man in China would have Tho nerve 10
| stand ND In this convention and make a
demand for q constitutional monarchy.
The convention must thus undoubtedly de-
eide for a republic. and the Mancnus must
give way to the new regime. Jus, how the
transition will take place IS ',if1cult n
forecast but it is scarcely likely that such
a tremendous thing can happen without the
spIlins Of blood
Sun Yat-sen's Position.
In the mean time candidates for ths
| Presidency appear. Sun Yat-scn, ;hc re-
former. considers this revolution as his
show. and. according 10 the reports re-
ceived here. has scoffed at the peace nego-
tiations In Shanghai. There arc others Of
rebel tendencies who disagree with Sun
Yat-sen. particularly with reference TO his
own installation as President OF the first
Republic Of China.
AS pointed out above. Peking's opinion OF
this present outlook may be all wrong.
From the South there come reports OF in
tense enthusiasm and widespread and
earnest feeling for a republic. Perhaps We
have underestimated the strength Of the
Republicans and the quality OF their vlgor.
but we have only the tangible facts to
, guide ourselves by, and so far the rebels
D have not shown evidence OF ability 10 cope
r with the tremendous task they have out
: lined for themselves.
Supposing that the republican form OF
government does come TO China. The first
t requirement of all is the restoration OF
peace and order, not only as matter OF
= administration, but for the purpose OF pro-
, curing the recognition Of the powers.
With the passing Of the Manchus such
recognition would doubtless be at once ac-
corded Thus the Republic or China
breathes and comes to life. But it is bank
rupt lust az bankrupt as the present I'M
perial government, which is In It's deatn
throes for no other reason than that It
never. laid away a reserve the money was
Laid away, right enough, but I'm private cof-
hardy indeed will be the banker who viii
lend money.
u would probably be necessary after
time for the powers TO intervene and 10
support q loan TO the new government and
then would come the thing most dreaded
bv all Chinese-foreign supervision Of the
sources OF revenues No one Will lend on
China's general credit. and specific security
!
new form Of government nations sanction
ing the lending of money would demand
not only specific security. but some very
definite means OF protecting this security,
which would mean foreign administration.
Honest administration would be all that IS
needed II is commonly said in China that
were the revenues of the salt monopoiy
honestly collected and expended, and then
! added TO the customs receipts the total
would be sufficient 10 run the central gov
ernment. with no other form OF taxation.
Professional Rebel PeriI.
Then, unless experts here have grievously
underestmated the rebel factors there Will
be the friction within. There would be ths
struggle for power and control. just az
everywhere else but not tempered by the
long experience and practice which serve
to Keep pOltlCdl STusEl'S III oAh'i N'"'
| tries peaceful. One revolution breeds
another In most countries when expert
ments are made with new forms of gov
ernmcnt and there is 10 reason why suco
should not be the case here. Hencefortn
there will doubtless be a lot OF professional
rebels throughout this empire.
II all seems grotesque but dangerous
thing that is about TO happen here. China
a republic. This great unwieldly nation OF
gigantic provinces which entertain the
most intense jealousy for one another.
| Provincial feeling is always high and uni
6cation under new form such as the re-
nublic seems difficult almost hopeless.
| Jealousy and rivalry exist not only oe-
tween the provinces but between clans
within certain provinces. Secret societies
with powerful influence exist everywhere
and dabble in political situations. Where
tn all this can be seen the essential ingre-
| dients for the making of strong SELF
governing federation of states whose IN
terests are supposed to be one and the IN
,erests OF all centred in the centrai gov
ornment? Nevertheless, it seems that tue
| exner,ment is about to be tried
| should the new republic faii' as SO man
reonle here think It will, the powers must
&C.