The Hartford republican. (Hartford, Ky.) 18??-1926, 1912-02-23
MAKING FIGURES
ON ELECTION
Roosevelt Followers Claim
ing Victory.
Assert That Nomination Of TAFT
Would Make Success
Doubtful.

The following which evidently
comes from the headquarters of the
Roosevelt followers is very interest
ing reading for all who are Interested
in the game of politics, as giving the
grounds upon which the Republicans
may hope to win the coming presi-
dental election. 1t says:
In only twcnty-three of the forty
eight states is the administration now
In the hands of the Republicans. The
states which have Republican gov
ernors, with their vote In the eeic-
torai college, are: California, III;
Delaware, 3, Illinois, %. Iowa. i3;
Kansas. 10; Maryland, S; Michigan.
Is; Minnesota. Il; Missouri, -; Ne
braska, S; New Hampshire. a. New
Mexico, 3; Nevada. 81. Pennsylvania,
IS; Rhode Island. 8; South Dakota,
&; Tennessee. IL; Utah, 4; Vermont,
4: Washington, Z; West Virginia, \
Wisconsin, Is; and Wyoming, B. Told
23s.
There viii be S3l votes in the
electoral college making ii6 necessary
to a choice. II the Republicans can
hold the states In which they now
have the governorship. they will ncod
only IS additional votes to carry the
next presidential election. Norman
~ the Republicans can be expected to
carry all these states except Maryland
and Tennessee. Deductlng the TWEEN
~ votes OF these two states leaving
2ls electoral, votes. which under nor
NAL conditions. the Republicaps-would
be reasonably sure of carrying.
But the conditions this year are
very far from normal. The Govern
ors OF Kansas. Michigan. Missouri
Nebraska, New Hampshire. South
Dakota. West Virginia and Wyoming
have joined the movement for tho
nomination OF Colonel Roosevelt. The
aggregate electoral VOTES of these
states is seventy-one.
In seven other states which now
have Republican Observation-Disclosures
Illinois Iowa. Minnesota. New Mexico.
Washington and Wisconsin-there is al
so decided opposition to President Taft.
These states have an aggregate OF
ninety electoral votes.
This puts one hundred siXty-one Q6!)
electoral votes from the fifteen normal
~ Republican states into the "doubt-
fur column the moment President Taft
Is declared the nominee of the Chicago
Convention, and with at least IS Of them
It gives strong probability Of democratic
success.
In case the nominee at Chicago is
to suppose that he would fail to carry
any one of these 20 Republican states
with the exception of Maryland and
Tennessee. He would be assured Of
at least 2lS electoral votes to start
with. 1t would be necessary for him
then In order to carry the election to
win in other states an aggregate of on
ly As electoral votes.
The Roosevelt fight. therefore would
have to be made In Northern States
which now have Democratic admins
trations. There are twelve Of these
states-Coolrado, with six electoral
votes; Connecticut. Z; Idaho. 4; Indiana,
Is; Maine. 6; Massachusetts,. IS; Montana
4; New Jersey, IA; New York. As; North
Dakota, 6; Ohio, "a; and Oregon, 6. To-
tai l53.
On the showing made In the last
three national campaigns. every one
of these states ought to be easily Re-
publican. Mr.. Taft lost Colorado and
Nebraska In 1908. but Col. Roosevelt
carried both easily In 1904.
On figuring which can be made In
regard to the twelve states now adj
ministered by Democratic governors
It would be easy for Col. Roosevelt
10 win the forty-eight votes necessary
in addition to the 2is from states that
are at present Republican. to carry
them to victory.
He could win without Indiana. Ohio.
New York, New Jersey. and Connecti-
cut combined. To do 30 he would
have to hold the states now Repub-
lican-except Maryland and rennes-
see-and carry, In addition. the New