The Hawaiian gazette. [volume] (Honolulu [Oahu, Hawaii]) 1865-1918, 1912-02-06
So Predicts Ed. PoIlitz, Who Has
Gone Over the Situation
Carefully.
TARIFF WILL NOT BE CUT
Democratic Talk Is Political Bluff
Only - Congress Must
Protect Beet Men.
(From Saturdays Advertiser.)

That the average price of sugar dur
inp the campaign of 1912 will be at
least five cents, and that there VIII
be no change in the sugar tariff. are
predictions made by Ed. Pollitz, the
well.known broker, who arrived yes
terday from San Francisco on the
Sierra.
az was laughed at for my predic'
tions a year ago, said Pollitz, to an
Advertiser man who asked for his
views, "but events proved that | was
right. For four or five years past my
forecasts have happened to hit the
right figure.
~ do not see how there can be an
average price of less than five cents
for the 1912 crop. We all know that
Europe is short. Germany is not pro
ducing enough for home consumption.
The Cuban crop is not up to expecta-
tions.
High Price Abroad
cat present there is an enormous
margin between the New York quota
tions and the London market. There
is a margin of eighteen dollars TON
sugar in London is eighteen dollars a
ton above our price. This would enable
European refineries to draw largely
from Cuba. 1t is impossible at present
to tell how far this will reach. Pur-
chases for the London market have
been ordered in Cuba to exceed quar-
ter of a million tons. How much more
will be ordered can not now De told
But the time will come when we shall
have to make up for the Cuban loss
and look to Java and other countries.
This will bring the two markets closer
together. When | left the London price
was 526 and the New York price 4.35.
The Tariff to Remain.
s'I do not believe that any change
will take place in the sugar tariff. he
ports of changes are mere conJectnres
and those who say they give such re
ports ION good authority say more
than they have right to, for there
is no authority for the prediction.
"The tariff question is the great one
in Washington but the battle-ground has
been shifted to a commission composed
of scientific men who have investigated
all over the world. The basis of ad
justment is to provide for our greater
cost of production and the more eNpen
sive mode of living in this country
The difference in cost of living is easily
found and the difference in wages is
mere matter of mathematics, but 1t II
not so easy to decide what is "a rea
sonable profit to be protected by tariti
If cost of living wages and other eX
l. e
greater risk proportionately and arr
entitled to greater profit. This has been
pointed out repeatedly by Taft. The
problem is just the same no matter
what the price of sugar is.
Works Both Ways.
off the tariff should be taken OIL
because sugar is high, then it should bt
raised when sugar is low. Supply and
demand regulate the price and 1t vii
probably be low again in time.
Promise to Beet Men.
s"The beet industry is fOstered by
the tariff. There was tacit under
standing that the tariff would be kept
till the beet men could supply home
demand. This has not been done and
1 don't see how congress can so back
on the promise,
"Congress is not going TO work hap
hazard The agitation now is more
political than economic. The Demo
Gratis are trying to make political capi
tai out of the tariff but, as always
they are not able to find remedy fo'
the things they criticize. There mus
be revenue for the government and i
import tariffs are to be taken of, ther'
viii have to be internal taxes ON vari
Gus great staples.
''Sugar is lower today than it wa
some few years ago, yet general,
speaking there is not staple in thu
world or other article, that has no
advanced in cost in the past twent.