The Washington herald., 1912-12-07
WHAT HAPPENED TO A.
SPECIALITY COLLECTOR

| Quite a long time ago, before any
strong anti-corporation agitation began
in this country. the writer answered
| letter received by a financial paper from
| an investor who had about $4,000 split
! up between four stocks. These stocks
/ were the stocks OF the four biggest.
| strongest. and richest express companies
In the United States. The letter asked
| for advice and comment concerning the
| investment.
II is hard for a critic TO answer
| letter like that. first because he knows
perfectly well that he runs good
chance. IL he says anything hostile about
the securities the man ov ms, OF being &C
Cused OF trying to induce him to sell out.
not for his own interest. but for the IN
terest of some body else: and second
because hostile critic is not very CON
structive citizen anyway and he knows
| that his advice is apt to simply DIS
turb a mans mind without giving him
anything definite TO 20 on. NeNerthe-
! less in reply to his letter the investor
was strongly urged TO take at least hdN
Of his money out OF these express stocks
and invest il in something else. The ar
gument was that even though the money
was well split up between the four COM
panies. all the eggs were stlll IN one
basket Whatever would hurt one eN-
press
the others.
The reply that came back was a war
like epistle. 1t appeared that for nearly
twenty years the owner OF these stocks
had been In the express business more
or less and had been connected with all
four companies. He believed in the eN-
press gospel He told the writer that he
did not know his business, and expressed
in no uncertain terms his lack Of appre-
cation Of the advice given. He wound up
his letter with the statement that long
after some OF the best known bonds end
stocks OF the railroad world had fallen
out Of sight. the express companies
would stin be doing a fOurishing bust
ness and their stockholders would still
be receiving fancy rights and dividends.
Here were two perfectly honest Opin-
IONS both founded on insufficient prem
iscs. The writer did not know what was
impending in the express business. and
the investor was arguing from prejudice.
II either had been able to look forward
to a period that was even then impending
a period in which tn. express business
would become. as IL were. an anachrO-
nism in which the United States govern
ment would investigate the inside opera
tons of these companies, expose their
variable rate schedules. and dClih' telv
set to work TO remedy them. and in which |
the people would Clamor for and would
finally secure a mail service in COMPETE |
ton with the express service on small |
parcels-no such quarrel could have been |
possible. !
CnIuckily, however. It is not given to |
any critic. or any investor. to look very
far into the future. and prOphesy the !
news. The critic cannot see the final re-
suit In stocks or bonds until some ten |
dency has started to develop. When a !
tendency has fairly started and is in fun |
swing II is not difiCult perhaps. Ia |
prophesy the future. Neither is il a very !
easy thing to do at best. The business |
of prophesy in matters of securities is |
foolish and expensive business. both for |
the man who prOphesies and for the man |
who listens to the prophecy.
Since. therefore. the express stocks |
illustrate in a rather striking way what |
may sometimes happen to specialties. it |
is worth while to record a few striking |
facts in connection with them. A little |
table recently published in one Of the
newspapers OF New York tells the story l
pretty well. Here is il: