Perth Amboy evening news., 1912-05-18
FOR T. R..
ON |ST BALLOT
Former Judge DuelI Makes
a Prediction

EX-Judge Charles ii. DUEL, VINO mas
been in many presidential campaigns
and who is chairman of the Roosevelt
committee Of New York, made the fol
lowing statement today:
Having established somewhat of a
reputation for correct political fore
casts, / have thus far refrained from
making any predictions as to the Re
publican nominee for president. 1t Is
a matter Of public record that In the
spring Of 1896 l predicted the nomina-
ton of Mckinley and in the early
summer gave out a statement showing
the number of electoral votes he would
receive and from what states. No
vember proved this to be substantial
ly correct. In 1900 my published pre-
diction as to the number of electoral
votes President Mckinley would re-
ceive varied but little from the actual
result. In the spring of 1904 | pre-
dicted the nomination OF Roosevelt and
stated that he would receive 317 cleo
toral votes agaiDst any Democrat who
might be named. He received 814 Of
the votes stated, together with the
vote Of Missouri and one vote from
Maryland. In 1908 | predicted that
Mr.. Taft would receive 800 electoral
votes. AS a matter of fact he receiv-
ed 1923. In every instance l gave my
reasons for my conclusions.
For many months | have carefully
nhGNPUnd tho n1f1nnlF an6 H,IpIn0 tho
past two months have carefully gone
over the conditions existing through
out the United States and from time
to time have revised my estimates of
the probable outcome OF the Chicago
convention.
Not as an officer Of any political
committee, but as an individual, l am
clearly Of the opinion and willing to
risk my reputation as a forecaster
upon the prediction that Colonel
Roosevelt will have at the least 600
delegates on the first ballot In the
irrespective of how the national
committee may decide the contests
that will come before it. Should that
committee use steam roller methods
In deciding the cases coming before it
the convention will have an anti-Taft
vote Of at least $50, which will be suf-
ficient to correct any unfair decisions
Of that committee. In my opinion,
Mr.. Taft's friends will not have more
than 400 votes upon any test question.
These reasons lead mt to my conclu-
slons:
"First.-A careful review of the pre-
vailing conditions Of political thought
and, as l believe, a correct under
standing of the wishes Of a large ma
jority Of the Republican voters, cou-
pied with a somewhat intimate knowl-
edge of the real preference Of many of
the delegates now claimed for Mr.. Taft.
"Second.-Far and above everything
else, however, Is the wonderful hold
that Theodore Roosevelt has upon the
rank and file Of our voters through
their conviction that everything for
which he stands looks to the better
ment Of our conditions.
"Third.-The determination of q
large majority Of the voters to smash
the party machines, which. almost
without exception, oppose Rooseyelt's
nomination.
"Fourth.-The reaction In favor OF
Roosevelt which results from the bit
ter opposition from the press-Demo-
cratic and Republlcan-in substantially
all Of the large cities of the country.
"F1fth.-The unpopularity of the big
lawyers as political leaders. Wheth-
er 1t be just or otherwise, the average
mar doubts the sincerity of the legal
defenders of special privileges and Is
unwilling to trust them as the guard
ians Of its rights,
"SiNth.-The results of primaries and
conventions In the chain Of states ex-
tending from ocean to ocean, including
Maine, Pennsylvania, West Virginia,
Illinois, Nebraska and Oregon. The re
suit In these states shows that the de
mand for R~oosevelt's nomination Is
not confined to any locality.
"Seventh.-The desire Of the average
politician to be on the winning side.
These now begin to see hat they have
been living Ia the fools paradise and
that they have Incorrectly read the
signs OF the times.
"Eighth.-The political ingratitude,
almost universal, upon the part of
those whom Colonel Roosevelt In the
past has pitchforked into political
prominence.
CHARLES II. DUELL."