The Richmond Virginian. (Richmond, Va.) 1910-1920, 1912-09-02

THE REAL POLITICAL SITUATION.

This, in brief Is the conclusion of the editor
OF The North American Review--the only con-
clusion, ne says-after a panstakiDg analysis
the unprecedented political situation which
has developed as the consequence of the for
nation of a third party under aggressive lead
ership. As The Virginian pointed out few
weeks ago. the >ntest has already narrowed.
as in 1924, 10 the Democrat against the field. |
and while he is practically assured of plu-
rality of votes in the ELECTORAL college, his
defeat may be accomplished by failure to Sc
crre an actual majority ALL and the cleo
ton of the President would be imposed the
House OF Representatives.
If the States should vote in the electoral col
ege they now represented politically in
the House of Representatives elected in 1910
the result would be: Wilson. 2sS; Taft, 1877;
Roosevelt 66. The editor of The Review CON
tinues
Without assuming that tine voting in Novem-
Der will follow closely the lines indicated, We
nevertheless find in these actual results Of 1910
the best basis obtainable for Intelligent specu-
lation Certain deductions for example, seem
| fully warranted, to-wtt
l. Roosevelt cannot be elected.
! He may expect with reason to obtain the Sc
|
to hin, from, the Taft column Illinois, %; Penn
! sylvania So; Wisconsin, -; Michigan IS;
with the original Sc, of 81, Add from the VIII
son column: Arizona, J; Colorado, g. New York,
~; North Carolina ~ Oklahoma, lo-~to ot,.a
number. The widest imagining cannot accord
| Roosevelt amaJorty-
| g Taft cannot win
! Allot TO him 1877 az recorded above, includ-
ling the doubtful 81 from Illinois. Minnesota
and Wisconsin,; from the Roosevelt column:
Utah 4; from Wilson; Maryland, 3; New York.
45; Ohio. "a West Virginia, S--total 25e. or
las the topmost Of Mr.. Tafts possibilities,
In the event that Wilson should not obtain
House would be called upon to elect a Presi-
dent on the second Wednesday of February
Each State would have one vote, and the
self would be: Wilson. %; opposition. %; d.
vded 4--Maine. Nebraska, New Mexico and
Rhode Island Only Taft Wilson and Roose-
Welt could be voted for Neither Taft
Roosevelt would have a chance. and Wilson
would have TO win over three Republican
States-an impossibility, The House, thee
fc,e. would deadlock on choice f., President
what would happen then? Continues The Re-
view:
provision of the Constitution would be engaged
in choosing q Nce-Presdent, since Marshall
necessarily would have failed to obtain ma
iarity In the Electoral College. in common with
Wilson. Choice would be restricted to. the two
persons who had recefved-the largest number
Of electoral votes-Narshall surely and Sherman
probabiy--and the senators would vote indi-
Ividually instead of by States, as in the House
of REPRESENTATIVES Forty-nin votes would be
required to elect. The Senate is classified
officially follows; Republicans so; Demo
icrats Al; vacancies, 2 The vacancies will be
Had uFqa ma hy no
RADIO and Illinois in January Apparently.
one and possibly three more than the ~ re-
CURED for the election of Vice President.
who would boone President the 4th Of
March. THIS seems to mean that In the event
of Wilson failing to obtain 266 electrical votes
Sherman would succeed Taft
But here enters another factor. The Re-
publican majority in the Senate is only nomf
9ui If Illinois and Colorado both etirn Re
Ipubiican Senators, the majority in he Senate
would be only 52. If for any reason four of
these Senators should abstain from voting On
the matter the Senate would be unable to elect
Il Wee President In the event. then, of the
House being unable TO elect President and
tie Senate ce-President Secretary of State
knox would become acting President at the
respiration of President Tafts term at mid
and provided he would have TO convene Con.
gress in extraordinary session on the ,.2Ath OF
March. and that body would fix the time for
choosing the eiectors-not later than Novem'
Der of that year,
The contest then resolves itself into Wilson
against the field and the editor of The Review
wonders II Il is within the range of possibility
| for any combination TO withhold from Wilson
and Marshall. whose plurality is virtually as
/ sured an actual majority of votes in the cleo
| toral college. He does not think there u.s. and
yet is prone to believe that the labor vote in
the pivotal centers-New York and Illinois
will be Wilson's weakness Neither Wilson nor
Taft In his speech OF acceptance said one word
! of sympathy the editor contends. 10 the toll
/ ing masses while Roosevelt promised every
| thing in the calendar. Upon whether tuese
toiling masses believe he can perform what
he promises depends great deal Contrary to
the general view. Editor Harvey regards Roose-
velt's candidacy as harmful rather than help
| full to Wilson because he thinks the tempes-
tuous will get some OF the fa- Western
States which would have gone for Wilson.
Mr. Harvey sums up his conclusions N these
significant words: eex