New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1912-11-04
Stock Market UnCertain-MuCh
Depends on Europe
and Election.

| circumstances, so for the time being
| only uncertainty is presented. The Local
stock market has moved in daily OPP
position to the natural law Of cause
and effect, and has ignored factors
| which would seem 10 be imperative.
Just as the last appearance Of real
foreign liquidation was reported by
cable, and when 1t was thought that
the independence Of American securi-
ties as investments had been estab-
lished by their pronounced strength
during the previous weeks OF heavy
foreign selling, this market turned
weak and bearish sentiment became the
ruling power in the trend of prices.
Then when the situation abroad sug-
gested disturbed money conditions. when
the news was received from the Bal
kans telling OF Turkish defeat and the
cable suggested possibility OF serious
diplomatic complications between the
European powers and the victorious
Balkan alliance. when local call money
rates rose to the highest point Of the
year, the New York stock market
turned comp aratively strong, and in the
face Of much depressing local senti-
ment prices advanced.
Some Wall Street prophets who make
charts and draw conclusions from for
mer happenings for the last two years
have predicted q panic for 1912. but,
like all prophets in weather and re-
ligion, their predictions so far have
failed to materialiZe. Following the
rule adopted by all forecasters OF events
these prognosticators now take refuge
behind the large crops, saying the panic
has been deferred for year or more.
There will ever be a difference of
opinion even among men of an equal
degree of intelligence, SO If factors
are 70 be accepted at their face value
the deductions Of men who use the
same factors in forming their opinions
should be given credence. The chief
difficulty encountered among these
various writer's is that many Of them
have hobbies, and the particular fac
tor which by chance is their favorite
hobby influences for or against fair
estimate OF its value In arriving at q
general conclusion. Not entering into
the individual importance Of any OF
the points used to emphasize claims to
special recognition, but rather accept
ing all Of them as a basis Of under
standing. seems TO be the safest rule
10 follow. There are some factors
which are more important than others
in considering the outlook for business
in mercantile and Industrial lines or
in the investment markets. Irrespective
Of any impressions to the contrary. this
country is a geographical body. which.
like the human body, cannot be sop
arated without harmful consequences.
The East cannot be considered indie
pendently of the West or South, nor
vice versa.
The heart OF nation is its money,
which keeps business in circulation A
country is supplied with energy by It's
products. which i'll the United States
are chiefly agriculture. One cannot
prosper without the other. and all talk
Of commercial or financial indepen-
dence Is at random. An abundance Of
both in liberal exchange should prove
the country to be In q healthy cond!-
ton, and In the main this assumption
Is true. But as the United States Is
interdependent, so is 1t in q way af-
fected by the conditions obtaining IN
other countries. and any calamity
which might befall Europe would have
an effect on the United States which
might be more serious than can be ap-
preciated. In view OF this year. when
our Industries are straining their ca
pacity OF output. when our harvests
are crowding all the channels Of trans
portation and when as a whole the
banks Of the nation report sufficient
money in hand to care for the demands
Of all branches Of commerce. any esti-
mate of the probable effect would be
highly speculative. Usually a Presi-
Dental election year is attended with
slackening of business, general disar-
rangement of the plans OF manufact-
uring and merchandising, and the
country assumes q waiting attitude
until after the day of election and the
people have accepted the result which
settles the question for four years TO
follow. The year 1912 has been an ex-
ception, and there has been little at
tention given by business to the con-
test for Presidential honors, which in
many ways has been without par
allel IN the history Of American poll
tics. II no change shall be made In the
administration and President Taft be
reelected, 1t Is reasonable to conclude
that the prosperity which has made
such a vigorous start this year during
his incumbency will continue. and our
outlook for several years Will BIO very
bright. Any change necessarily will
disturb the present prosperous move
ment, and it will require time to learn
how costly a new regime will be to the
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