New-York tribune., 1912-04-15
FEARS WAR OVER CANAL
prof. Johnston Says Opening May
Cause gIo-German Trouble.
TRADE ROUTES TO CHANGE
Historian Believes That England
Would Resent German Base
in West Indies.
,p,. Telegraph n The Tribune :

pos-on April 14-That trouble between
c.rnsnv and England may he more closely
,.la,sd m the ouening Of the Panama Canal,
,i,b its constituent shifting OF the present
s,c economic balance, than is generally
s,,rosed. is the belief Of Professor r. NJ.
rohnston. 81 the history department Of
Harvard
Professor Johnston Is by no means an
,rar-,ist. hut as an expert on modern history
no fores4es an inevitable changing Of the
great trade routes Of the world, when the
vster AZ last rushes into the locks on the
Isfbrus Like other close observers, he
.sa's the keeruees Of the economic struggle q
between England and Germany. and he
thinks that Germany is scarcely 70 he OK
nec,ed 20 remain satisfied with her present
,ck Of = base somewhere in the routes OF
commerce. that Will re created ny tho open
Ing Of the canal.
England policv. as he sees y, IS 70 keep
Cemauy from obtaining new territory
within zone that may be roughly de-
scrbed as ly'ns between the coast Of Mo
rocco and Key West. for It Is within that
zone that the trade routes from the Pa
cr0c. from the Mediterranean and from the
South Atlantic will converge on northern
Eurove and the United states.
let II Germany IS 10 exercise any mill
,a-v Diplomatic pressure in connection with
these trade routes she must have a base
somewhere m this portion Of the globe. on
which England has posted hands off
sign. Professor Johnson believes. For Ger
rsu- % disregard this warning will mean
var with England. he holds. and adds:
There has been much discussion lately ot
lie report that Germany had obtained thS
great port OF Charlotte AUalia. I'm the
Island of : Thomas. Z Danish possession
IN the West indies The report was tha'
The German interests taking TINS were o~
tsne,b'v 10 use II for the German mer'nan'
marine of which 30 many steamships 81
,rlaz4d in tie West indian trade. kut th+
s.srfr,Cn was expressed that the German
government was back Of The merchant
and % time Of war could use the place fo'
repairs and Coalug OF naval vessels.
sun a tH'ng would he possible and 'n'.
-sf.e- a question as 10 how the Monroe
Doctrine sht apply This. ny ne WaN
could be more easily 'omprehehd~n .
were called the Monroe policy. for mat j.
what II ls-tha policy Of the United state
IN thus hemisphere u seems 20 me th9'
lis policy must 0e AXactlV in line VIII
that f England, % oppose - The e%ir,i.e ,i,.',
arr ,hanEe ion the ownership OF 'NSuhl
European possessions here 49,
pet quite as vital IN England s. ~ iie
Ivr-at states would he the establishing II
z German base IN the Vest Indies In me
event of war such a base would give Ger
man. the chance which her actual na a
situation hardly eiye~ her, that Of destroy
ina British commerce .
Tro significant position the canal VII
corlpv N relation 70 the English world can
rot hn overlooked With the opening OF the
canal Germany Nill feel more urgently than
s.e~ AAfore the need of a base mewher1
in the course that trad routes will follow
trer should Germany attempt 70 acquire
s. an Island in the West Indies. be
ieve England would fsht, # necessary Ia