New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1912-04-23
QUESTION OF THE HOUR
mos the Future Hold a Bull or
Os,r Movement in Stock Prices?

Boar Movement in Stock Prices?
. &c an. opportuneness in the move
-, OF the stock market which must he
,..a when any attempt Is made TO
~. .,,lyss hull or bear tendencies
,,,,sworn smile Of the swinging Of
-. clock pendulum is still appropriate. and
=. an abstract reason for price fluctuations
-,,r,s,ic Jay Gould once remarked,
s,.o,s. always so down. but you have to
~, I'M" which every one closely as
,.,., with stock market transactions
nlly appreciates
Sometimes the downward inclination Is so
-. strength Of boosters Is not suf-
-, n check the decline until the
n, .,.rrspt apparently has been stopped by
new investment level
S,...,,,ertIv attempts TO raise prices, even
severe decline, result IN further
49,, causing general bearishness,
- tho range Of the market for the
,t,oe wears there have been spots
h', or,rhasize the force Of this fact, and
s..,-g that period the probability of real
..n movement has not been seriously
- M % the beginning Of 1912 and
- ,,,s latest 81 upward swings which
.,,,v started. The climbing OF the
~ lie. during the last few weeks has
- tho bear!sh spectators and In
...ors N acknowledge that the bulls have
The pool fnanciers Of successful hull
-.,..,,ort must he careful students Of
uor,d.Uide conditions Of agriculture, in
,,s,-v and money, and must wait for the
,o,or,une period before they begin any
5.,,r.,s5 ruy,rc Of market leaders on the
...,l lie, 10 awaken confidence and start
,hs-,l following Of the professional ele-
-, oren9rafory TO interesting the public.
,,,srer,lv the time was opportune when
.,a present bull movement was launched,
,,opeb the Wall Street Judgment seemed
:, he that the start was premature.
The question now is, as ii has ever been
,rd u.ill always be during the sliding UP or
sour the market scale Of prices. Is the bull
-,ovsrnsnt over, and Will a break come
cam Only the real insiders can answer
syrh a query. and they could not judicious-
- ,a,I any one. Notwithstanding all rumors
~ inside information. 1t is a case of try
,rr 10 dec!pher the handwriting on the
wall which Is there for each one to read.
Since lss, except for brief spasms of
brsress and stock market recovery, the
commercial and stock market tendency has
bAsr downward and banks have gradually
hsan reducing credits and discouraging eX-
tensions. The reasons for such a continu-
ms sarcing of trade and general depression
are too numerous TO take up in a limited
srsce The result is the thing which people
faced ana realized. but the analysis of con-
si.jons IS seldom carefully made by the
ryblc. As business grew more stagnant
and stocks we're Hquidated from both fear
spt necessity. and loans were called and
MORTGAGES were reduced, the banks every
where throughout this country accumulated
more money for which there was no de-
rsni 81 home
Under normal conditions an easy money
market would have stimulated commerce
and Industry, but with a threatened tariff
revision disturbed home and foreign con-
i!lcns and an !ndefnable something in the
atmosphere which suggested anything from
simple stagnation 20 a worldwide panic or
revolution. there was little TO encourage
bankers TO loan money or business men to
Engage in new or enlarged undertakings.
On the contrary, the order Of conservatism
prevailed and the country suffered.
America is recuperative and our people
are energetic. resourceful and believe in tho
future Of this great Republic. SO gradually
fear hesan 10 subsiGe and optimism began
70 MAKE its appearance. Very slightly. Of
course. but little straWs indicating the d.
rstt.on OF the wind began TO move.
The buying for the retail trade through
OF, TIE country was better this spring than
70. several seasons The farmers Of the
West we're generally prosperous, and the
cotton men OF the South saw an improve
neHt IN both price and the class Of buying
O. cotton in the European market. which
naturally would be followed by buying for
consumption at home.
As the stock market is supposed 10 antici-
pate improved business conditions, It was
only logical that with cheap money and an
sfparent turn IN the underlying affairs Of
ths country II was due TO start an upward
noyenen, in stocks. Stocks were cheap,
numerous high class issues were selling on
basis above per cent yield, when money
could Re borrowed al a much lower rate.
The best evidence Of the timely bull mar
kst is that II has heen here for some weeks
sld bear attacks have failed to break IT; in
fact even 20 dent f. But the future
heres The rub
Well, here's the story: Stocks, many Of
item are s'iu cheap. copper interests have
TAKEN the visible overproduction out Of the
way ana have advanced the price Of the
metal and increased the dividend rate on
Amalgs stock. steel companies are
aevancns prices and some railroads are
showing Improvement in business. There is
tone Of encoura cement from the indus
r.al world. and last but not least. thero IS
L. process % completion great deal OF
financing 20 be done by railroads and In
d1stri.s, and financing is not easily done
u falling stock market.
On the other hand. the floods Of the West
snc South have been very disastrous TO
cotton ana grain, 10 what extent the crops
vii hA affected IL is not possible 10 say
low. but there Will he some heavy losses
y The farmers. business men and railroads
'tatsd n the afflicted districts.
The Western farmers in the corn belts
t" been selling all their corn at high
pHces instead ~ feeding II. 50 while they
nave good supply Of cash on hand they
" about sold out of corn, they have no
'a' cattle or hogs m ship and for the next
lea months until new crops come in. they
VII have practically nothing to sell ana
hlN spend some Of their cash supply 10
i've Again pc are entering one Of the
NOS kale.doscoping political campaigns IN
history which may or may not be factor
II The near fg'lI@ u the market
finally. the Unknown result Of the Titanic