The sun., 1912-08-04
COTTON YIELD AND e
CONDITION REPORTS
Bureau Figures Seldom Give
Much Idea as TO the Size
Of the Crop.
THIS YEARS PRODUCTION
Official Report Of Friday Re
sponsible for Wide Range
of Estimates.

For .ome reason or other the cotton
trade OF the world seems to think that the
officials of the Bureau Of Statistics at Wash.
ington are not sufficiently familiar with
cotton conditions to give the hest results
and express them statistically The bureau
has a high standing when II comes to wheat.
,, corn and oats. Most Of the members Of
the board are familiar with conditions on
vr In and are able to make the allowances
" arc necessary for eSaggeration and
distortion OF facts. Their estimates on the
grain crops have met with general com
niendation and usually have been verified
by the outturn.
When Il comes TO cotton. however. the
, bureau frequently has gone rather far
astray. In the last four or five years the
members have used the census ginning
returns. and their estimates have been much
nearer the mark. With the single exception
Of last year. when they estimated crop
! of approximately i6.OOO,OOO bales at ~
200 400. their work does not come in for
| criticism.
The condition reports of the bureau.
/ however. have generally failed to give
much idea of the auantitative yield.
Whereas the figures on the wheat and corn
condition are susceptible Of translation
| into indicated yields of 80 many million
| bushels. II would take a pretty daring statis-
tician TO attempt TO forecast the cotton
yield on the basis OF the Government con-
| dition figures. This probably Ia because
| the officials OF the bureau have been nagRed
| and harasscd SO much by Southern MEM
! bers Of Congress in an effort to browbeat
them into putting forth figures indicating
small yield that they always make an
| error on the low crop side.
| Moreover. the Temperament of the South
erner has to be taken into consideration.
/ ~ hAr ba fa RIM mrs nf tho Na "a nd Mort H.
west seem willing enough to admit that
they have large crops Of wheat and corn,
| the average southern planter seizes every
! opportunity to send out stories Of disaster
II is possible. therefore. that members
of the Bureau OF Statistics do not make
sufYicient allowance for the reports that
reach them.
| Last year. for instance. tho August I
condition report was placed at sol. The
market declined heavily and during the
month OF August u determined effort was
made 10 kill OF the crop. The bureau ON
cials INV isely failed to make allowance
for the calamtOus advices they received
and they placed the condition around
September l. which vas Of date August
.j at the very low figures Of 73.?. thus max
ing a decline OF 10 points for the month
There undoubtedly was no such deteriora-
tion and the cotton trade OF the world was
grossly misled by the figures. II would
have been impossible to figure out a cror
Of more than 1900. .OOO bales ON the show ins
not withstanding the big acreage. The yield
prov ed to be over II. 900. 900 bales. The con.
dtion Of ;3.c offered comparisons with a
ngure Of .2i the year before when IN.
crop Was only I:.OtUOO bales and wa
nearly : points below the figures of 1871 il
iaOs. when the yield was only 10, 500, ,OO'
bales.
.