The evening times. [volume] (Grand Forks, N.D.) 1906-1914, 1912-08-27
ABOUT THE LAW OF CHANGE
POKER PLAYING OR LIVING AND DYING.

ana covering so many lives that the
chance of error In the case. say Of
100000 people. is practically no chance
AT all.
As is the case with weather insur-
ance, it is merely a question of in
surfing a sufficient number of such
risks to strike the average that is
certain TO exist. the only essential
difference being in the fact thai sta
tistics pertaining to human life have
been complied for a longer time and
are more used.
Should a man cast a dice Indefinite
lN he could certainly expect that the
ace would be turned up exactly once
in six times, though in fifty cases, or
even in 1000 there might be quite a
variation from the expected result.
The process must he carried on to
"a very large number of throws to
make the law of probabilities apply
as it should and would.
In tho case of weather insurance.,
and, in fact. in all such financial
guarantees of some future event. the
same clement enters to some degree.
If h weather records were known
Tor Memorial day for 1000 wears. for
example. the that should be
charged as the "actual cost of the
insurance would be Il still more fixed
quantity. and. continuing the process,
if Memorial day We're insure for a
large unbe of years. at his Cost
plus the profit demand, then the
proflt of twenty per cent would he
a fixed and certain quantity from
which there would be no variation.
If two independent elements enter
INTO the computation the problem be-
comes a little more complicated. For
example, if the state fair management
desired insurance that a certain matcn
horse race could be and would be
possible on a certain day several
things would have to be considered. y
rain on the day before the date for
the race, or even two days or more
before. might stop it. The weather
fore, would havE to be Considered.
The possibility that one of the horses
would die in the meantime. or that
me of the horses would be killed or
injured in transportation-these and
a number of other questions would
enter into the case. And yet all could
be determined, for the live stock in
surancc companies of the country
have accurate and authentic figures
the probable ability of a horse to APP
pear and race. and the weather rec
crds would 70 the rest.
Returning to the horse race. If
considering the weather records of
previous Years it We're found that
there We're twenty-five chances in
fifty that it would rain and seven
chances in 100 that the race would
be prevented by some other contin-
sencv. then the chances of the race
would be the product of these two
probabilities. Multiplying shows that
with twenty-cight chances in fifty the
weather Will be suitable and ninety
three chances in 100 the horses will
be fit. the probability that the acc
can be held would be $500 in favor
of the presumption and 992 against
it.
If enough races could be insured
nfof,ts would b" as certain as profits
in the life insurance business or an:
other ordinary lines of Insurance..
The same question of two or more
contingencies often enters into COM
mon insurance problems. For exam
Pie, when Il fir" insurance company
makes its policy cover lightning and
cyclones additional complications
Which have their effect upon the rate
must enter. Again. the same compli-
company provides that the benefits
double in the event of the acct
dental death of the insured. Accident
insurance covering both death and
disability is in the same category.
A good deal of interest has result
ed OF late in the efforts of two Euro
pean companies to insure airships and
their river Early in the history of
the airsllip an effort was made to ar
rive at definite figures pertaining to
the chances of hirdman and airship
ankle. but W large companies that
undertook such insurance along with
their usual lines nav had such diff ,
ficulty that II of them has quit 1t
Altogether and the other is about to
follow suit. Yet the time will come
when there will be such a thing as
for birdmen just as there
is insurance now for locomotive engi-
neers n others whose risk is greater
ordinary human risks. When
the business of flying is old enough
enable man to compute the prob
with any degree of accuracy
and when some individual or COM
can do a sufficient volume of
business to insure it of striking an
average.