The Washington herald., 1912-10-27

The enumeration 20 tar leave0 tn
three big fighting grounds In the New
ENGLAND and Middle Atlantic states un
touched-4a New York. an<
Pennsylvania. With total representation
In the electoral college Of 1m votes.
In all three OF these States or In an,
one Of them developments In the mex
ten days may throw the victory Aithel
way In at least one Of then-Pennsyl
vania-Taft ID In . fair way to be- elimi
mated at the present writing. even allow
ing for the ultimate degree Of support
from his friends in the business world oi
4 that State.
In New York Mr.. Charlie Murphy hold
| the situation In his hapd. and the general
public will not know how Mr.. Murphy
wishes the fight to 80 until November
next.
In nay State.
| In Massachusetts the Bull Moose ID
assured of a large vote. and Wilson
leaders say they do not expect to furnish
more than per cent of the Bull Moose
| vote from the Democratic line. while
Progressives and Republicans alike de-
! clare that Col. Roosevelt and his plat
| form of industrial amelioration II max
ing big inroads into the Democrats
| strength.
Perhaps the Empire State, with its
4
| toral college. furnishes the most fertile
subject for speculation at this time. 1t
has not been advanced as a serious pos
sibility there that the winning national
ticket will not carry the State ticket
through also. although in the first tide
of optimism which followed the nomina.
ton Of Oscar Straus on the Bull Moose
ticket. there was some talk to that ef-
feet. But now. 1t appears Mr.. Straus
Grlddenlv has int in no
York campaign and is out trying to
elect Bull Moose candidates for other
gubernatorial Jobs in the Middle West
and intermountain States. while William
Sulzer, Democrat, and Job Hedges, Re-
publican. are tending strictly to their
knitting and each claiming the State for
themselves and their national tickets by
safe margins. Sulzer is still q safe ia
vorite in the betting. and Wilson Is .
four-to-one favorite against the field.
The most pessimistic Of Democrats ad-
nit that Woodrow Wilson and William
Sulzer will carry New York State If
Mr.. Murphy is the one big ''if'-if Mr..
Murphy is willing to overlook this excel
lent chance to get revenge on Mr.. Bryan
for that public 'bawling out" at Balti-
more and elsewhere. and upon Mr.. Sui
zer for the latter's carefully advertised
opposition to the Tammany leader in re-
cent years.
A New York Democrat who was in
Washington yesterday told a friend
that he had been told by Sulzer that
he tSulzer) confidently expected to be
knitted by Murphy this election. But
does he? Is Murphy hostile to Sulzer
and was Sulzer nominated at the State
despite Murphy? Speaking
plainly, did not Mr.. Murphy decide that
William Sulzer would be grateful enough
IL Mnrnhv alInu-ad m ha ofadI
and elected to bend an attentive ear tol
the voice of the Tammany chieftain:
was it not tacitly understood between
them that Mr.. Sulzer would be grateful
to this extent, and under these condi-
tions did not Mr.. Murphy decide that.
after all. an Embossed convention and
a victory for an Embossed Democrat |
in New York wouldn't be half bad. when |
the other alternative was another de-
feat for Murphy in the State and the
possibility that he would not be able |
to hold as much Of his New York City
power as he now retains? That is the
Democratic side Of the picture.
Barnes Has His Say.
On the Republican side, William
Republican boss, is understood,
to be insisting even to his closest per-
sonal and political friends that there
s nothing to 1t but Taft in New York
state. He is sending. out reports Of
polls which give Taft a safe majority
over Roosevelt and Wilson. and Hedges
over Sulzer and Straus. He tells party
eaders in other States that he cannot
see the remotest possibility Of a slip-up
n his calculations
Perhaps Mr.. Barnes knows more about |
he measure of support which he may
Npect from that noiseless but effective
business element than he Cares to state.
Big business in New York City has given
to be generally understood that the
resent election interests them very lit
le Wall Street has refused to furry
corporations are forbidden to contribute
Money to political campaigns, but infiu-
nee might be more valuable and less I
asily traced. Is that what Mr. Barnes I
as IN mind? Or does Mr.. Barnes know r
hat Mr.. Murphy is going to do? There $
as been the usual talk Of a trade be-
ween Murphy and the Republicans by
'hich the Republicans are to carry the
tate and Murphy to be undisturbed in
ew York City. November 6 will tell
nd he will be a wise man who tells be-
're then. in the opinion Of leaders who Ic
onfess themselves completely stumped. U
Then there comes Pennsylvania, with
lirty-eight electoral votes. The Phila- n
elphfa Public Ledger has recently sent y
political writer throughout the State
zing up conditions. The Ledger Is one
President Taft's firmest supporters in
Here is what their cor \
,spondent wrote: t
There can be little doubt that the e
ew Jersey Governor Is to-day the first Z
loice Of majority of the voters of n
IFS State' v
From another source II is learned that A
aft is gaining rapidly. but not sufi- c
entlv to pass the Wilson lead at the
'esent rate Of speed. Another source q
Information is 30 strongly impressed
ith the strength Of the Bull Moose e
ovement in the Keystone State that he
,lieves unless Taft polls 10000 votes. c
will be running neck and neck S
lth Wilson Taft in 1908 polled 745,7y J
ties in Pennsylvania, gaining a plura- +
> Of 2s7.001. or 5s.s per cent. Tener 5
epublican nominee for Governor in 1910 4
as given a plurality Of only g, 4s4, or +
O3 per cent. Roosevelt in 1901 carried o
e State by 5o6,5ls. These figures speak c
r themselves. +
In Massachusetts, the best Information 5
the present is that II Roosevelt can y
Ill a vote Of 100000 or more Wilson will F
we plain sailing, but that II the Bull e
pose ticket fails to poll $500 votes, the h
ds will be on President Taft. r.
ARM0N CLAIMS ALL IN SIGHT. y,
aiO Governor, After Campaign
Tour, Makes Predictions.