The Washington times., 1912-09-22

timent, which manifested itself out
wardly in q complete reversal Of stock
market form. During the preceding in
terval. for instance, prices declined
sharply in the face of a brilliant Gov
ernment crop report and some highly
encouraging testimony of industrial i'm
provement contained In the tonnage
statement Of the United States Steel
Corporation and the monthly report Of
the Copper Producers Association on
the output and consumption of the red
metal. Contrasted with this It is inter-
esting to note that the recovery in
prices this week was unattended by any
very important news Developments.
Routine happenings we're by no means
unfavorable, but to the contrary, but
this has been true for a long time past,
during which period the stock market
remained inert. Much, to be sure, was
made Of two small gold import en-
gagements, amounting in the aggregate
to 81. 10000. but as a matter Of fact,
the gold imports were everywhere egard-
ed as special transactions" and ster-
ling exchange rates clearly indicated
that the yellow metal could only have
been secured abroad at a loss to the Inn
porting firm. However, the expenses in
cident to the transaction were but
trifiing and what was lost in the oper-
alton in one way. was doubtless made
good many times over. in other ways.
Gold Importations.
No doubt the psychological effect of
the gold imports was considerable, in
as much as they turned the current of
financial comment into new channels,
suggestive Of possible means Of re-
lievlng monetary stringency, should IL
become very acute. But II is scarcely
necessary to say that 81, 100, 900 in gold
Is not very large amount and II Will
not go far in providing the means for
conducting a speculative bull stock
market. 1t Is true that other and
larger imports in the near future fig-
ured In the gossip of Wall Street and
some additional engagements are not
unlikely, but the almost definite assur-
ance has been received from abroad by
foreign bankers. that any unusual de-
mand for the yellow metal will force
higher Official discounts at London,
Paris. and Berlin.
Short crops In Europe assure heavy
commodity shipments from this side.
This naturally makes possible the ds-
Il
bills in Europe. English and continent
al bankers and bill discounting houses
" III grant every facility to the shippers
Of cotton and breadstuffs from this
country. but 1t is scarcely to be expect
ed that they would welcome a drain
of gold to New York. in addition to
granting New York extensive lines Of
banking credit. So it may be regarded
as doubtful II the present gold i'm
port movement is likely to be very ex.
tensiye II ona should show signs of
developing 1t will probably be met oy
advancing discounts abroad, cur
tailment of credit and probably by a
resale to this country of American
stocks and bonds
A Broadening Speculation.
1t Is difficult to disassociate the ad-
vance in prices during the week from
the importations of gold and that is one
| reason why the upbidding of stocks at
It's inception was regarded with a good
deal of skepticism. The movement had
! its origin with a group of large probes
| sional operators and, in general. the
| more than a we'll organized and clever
ly executed drive against the short in
| terest Later on this view was modt-
fled considerably, for 1t became appar-
ent that the market had struck hard
| spot. From a movement in specialties.
| in which stocks of highly problematical
value, like American Can. were con-
| spicuous, the trading broadened out
| and finally extended to the railway
| list, at least to a greater degree than
| for long time past.
Union Pacific, which for years has
| been the most active railway stock
on the list, but which in recent months
| has been so neglected that traders
| have been wont to say 1T has no
| friends except the bears" showed de-
cided animation. This was associated
| with a highly optimistic interview with
Chairman Lovett, of It's board Of di-
| again asserting itself, foreshadowirg,
as the rank and file in the Street
| hoped, a reawakening of activity In
| the torpid railway list, was regarded
as a highly encouraging feature. AL
though activity was chiefly confined to
| industrials, many other standard rail-
way shares besides Union Pacific gave
| a better account of themselves than
railway bonds also showed an improv-
ing tendency.
The Test of the Market.
| Perhaps Wall Street or a certain ele-
ment therein, has attached too much
Importance to the increased activity and
improvement in the market of the week.
Time alone can determine that. but even
Il the movement should prove another
| false start, II has anorded some COM
| fort to the brokerage element, in as
much as 1t has disclosed latent vital
ity, which Is certain to make itself felt
with the passing of some of the re-
pressing influences. Beyond this the re-
| covering movement demonstrates little
or nothing, for II was not shared in, to
any appreciable degree, by the outside
public, and short covering contributed
much to the increased volume of busi-
i ness OF course the real test of a mar
ket so advanced will come with the at
tempt to secure profits through the sale
of shares at the higher levels.
According to the old accepted stand
ards, the chances are very much against
any extensive or long continued upward
movement. TO enumerate no other re-
tarding influences, and there are quite
a number OF them. the condition OF the
money market raises an almost insur
mountable barrier Even II there wai
no necessity on the part of the bank:
flor providing another dollar for the mer
camille community or for shipping an
other dollar to the interior for crop
moving purposes, the present surplus II
the banks would not be sufficient to SUI
the banks would not be sufficient Il
support a speculative bull campaign
AS II Is, both the crop moving anC
the mercantile demand bids fair to con
tinue heavy for the balance of the year
| so that Wall Street will not have thu
means even II II has the inclination
| III