Arizona republican., 1912-06-17
The Probabilities

lican national convention will prob ably take place tomorrow. Ii Sena- for Root should be seated as tenn pOrary chairman, that may be taken as an almost certain indication of The nomination of Mir Taft If he should fail Of securing the sea:. that would point, though not neces- s.lrily with the same definiteness, tO the nomination of MT. Roosevelt IL would only be made plain that Taft could not be nominated There would still be an opening for third candidate.
 On the face of things, with 255 contests having been decided in his favor. MT. Taft has a majority over all. of some forty-five votes, count ing the delegates instructed for him. those pledged to him and those elected, either as Taft or anti-Roose- welt delegates. It is by no means certain, however, that he will have such a majority, if any. on the first roll call though he is now assured of from thirty-twO to thirty four members of the credentials commit lee of fifty-three.
 According to the dispatches from Chicago, active proselyting is being conducted by the Roosevelt leaders, the Taft people say, by corrupt methods and the Roosevelt people say, by simple persuasion. Any way. there is proselyting going on. and we cannot know how effective it has been until the first vote has been taken.
 We do not look for a stampede in the convention. Delegates have been generally chosen by the Taft forces all over the country, with spe- cial reference to their ability to keep their feet as well as their heads All important changes of sentiment on the part of delegates will be effect ed before the convention is called to order by the acting chairman. Mir. Roosevelt himself lessened the proba- bilities of a stampede by his too early presence in Chicago.
 As to the selection of MT. Root, the Taft managers affect the great est confidence, based not only on their apparent numerical superiority but also upon an alleged belief that Mir. Root will receive the support of some of the Roosevelt delegates. A canvass was made of many of them a month ago from Washington, re- sulting. it is said, in pledges of votes for MT. Root.
 The last week has made it clear that the thirty six LaFollette dele gates cannot be brought into a coali- ton with the Roosevelt forces. It is quite natural that such a combine should be impossible. LaFollette's feeling against the Roosevelt man agers and against MT. Roosevelt him. self is more intensely bitter than against the Taft faction. He regards their treatment of him as peculiarly cold blooded Roosevelt cannot suc- cessfully appeal to the followers of gressivism because their leader had repeatedly declared that he did not believe that those eleventh hour pro- fessions were sincere; that they were not supported by the record of MT Roosevelt.
 Taft has another great advantage that will probably go great way toward determining the result. The men in charge of the Taft fight are the most astute and experienced manipulators in the country. They do not get excited and waste theil strength in lost motion. On tht Roosevelt side, there is not one who is recognized as an accomplished ol experienced leader Film, thu coloners representative acquired no toriety rather than fame as an ill smelling ward boss of Pittsburg anC during his brief stay at Chicago h. has learned that there is a difference between ward politics and nationa convention politics. His first blum der was to give out a hint that tn nomination of MT. Roosevelt Wa despairtd of.
 Manager Dixon has shown wan of level -headedness and in the Mon