The watchman and southron. [volume] (Sumter, S.C.) 1881-1930, 1912-08-31
1he Price of Cotton.

| show as to the condition of cotton for
August, farmers will do we'll to be
warned in advance against the mis-
use of this information which the bear
| SPECTATORS may be expected to at
tempt 1t is not improbable that the
september report for 1912 will show
q condition approximately as good
as did the September report of 1911;
and on that basis the effort will prob
ably be made to argue that the crop
this year will be as large.
The Wall Street Journal points out
the fallacy of such a contention The
salient fact which misled the cotton
world last year." 1t says, was that
being an early crop. the deterioration
which usually occurs in September
took place in August. with the result
that the September figures of the
Government was not e. true reflection
Of actual conditions" Our contem-
porary then urges that the true way
OF determining the September condi-
tion Of the crop is to average the
June, July. August and September
figures; and on this basis 1t forecasts
that the condition of the crop this
year will be lower than in any year
since 1907, and that the final yield
por acre will be smaller.
The Wall Street Journal shows fur
ther that there will be an active de-
n.and for all the cotton that can be
produced in America this year. The
emptiness of the bear argument that
there would be SO much cotton carried
over from the big crop Of 1911 as to
dampen the demand for the new crop
Is exposed by the fact that the visible
supply of cotton on September Is en-
half bales. or smaller amount than
has been in sight In many previous
years when the crop Of the previous
year had been comparatively small.
The bulk Of the present holdings are
said to be in the hands Of foreign mills
and the northern mills of this country
have bought more freely than the
southern, but neither in this country
nor abroad has the average mill
bought beyond the middle Of Octo-
Der.
hA intn 10 HalI
observers. therefore, that 1t will ra-
quire about $500. 900 bales Of Ameri-
can cotton to supply the worlds de-
mand for the coming year. Will the
crop of this country be nearly So
large as that? The Wall Street Jour
nal plainly does not think so. 1t does
not express its opinion on this point in
so many words, but IT does have this
to say on the subject:
Last years enormous crop was due
to perfect conditions. an early pre-
paration and perfect summer and an
Open fall. Also there was an alb
normal yield per acre in North Caro-
lima, South Carolina. Georgia and
Alabama. These States raised a.
$4,000 bales of cotton from 49,
944, 900 acres Census figures,) or an
average Of $50 bales per acre The
average yield OF that area from 1904
to 1910 inclusive was .43 of bale.
From 1904 to 1919 the above men,
toned States raised on an average
about 5000, 900 bales of cotton.
From 1904 to 1910 Texas, Arkan-
sas. Oklahoma and Louisiana averag-
ed about 80 bales per acre, which
applied to- Il combined acreage Of
lS.S9S.OO0 would produce about g.
/ 100000 bales in 1912, as compared
! with 6.66i, 900 i'm 1911. These figures
call for less than 100000 bales of
cotton to be raised in Texas while
most IF the rabid bears have been
estimating a yield Of 100000 bales
for Texts. Only twice in it's history
did Texas ever raise 100000 bales.
and only three times in its history has
! II raised 3.j00.000 bales. To raise
100000 bales in 1912, Texas must
grow IA bales per acre. To produc.
100000 bales. Texas must raise SO
of bale per acre. something s,ic
failed to do in 1910, 1909, 1907, t9Uj,
1903. 1902 and 1901"
These are the facts as they are pre-
sontcd by Il financial authority for
whose opinions and satisfies We have
great respect. If they are even ap-
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