The Manning times. [volume] (Manning, Clarendon County, S.C.) 1884-current, 1912-09-25
THE cotton OUTLOOK

THE COTTON OUTLOOK
THE CROP THIS YEAR Is SMALL
ER THAN IS NEEDED.
This VIII Cause Good Prices + the
Is not Pushed to the Market too
Fast.
The New York Sun says although
the outlook for the American cotton
crop Is still more or less miXa1, ow-
ing to the conflicting reports from
various sections of the cotton belt,
the prospective requirements Of con-
sumption are more clearly outlined
than Is usual 80 early in the season
OF course there are claims by both
| bulls and bears, with the forming pre-
dieting a record consumption and the
latter material falling ost owing to
the increase in the size Of the crops
Of other countries. Last season the
consumption of American cotton was
14,5O0,000 bales. THIS was 4 record
There Is reason, how7Eer, to believe
that practically as much will be used
during the coming season notw!th-
standing the fact that India andEsypt
both have larger crops than last year.
The average man interested in the
price Of American cotton. however, IS
not concerned so much over what
the mills actually consume as much
as he is regarding the amount that
will be taken by manufacturers. AS
mater of fact, the volume Of ex-
ports to other countries and the a.
mount Of cotton needed BY Amceerj-
can spinpers offers much more
simple method of figuring out an idea
OF values than any ANALYSIS Of pros
poets for actual consumption. The
cotton market advanced from early
in the year not so much because the
consumption by European mills was
heavy as because Of the enormous
amount that was shipped out Of that
country thus removing the cotton
for the time being as fac:or in the
American supply situation. Exports
ID Europe China, Japan, India and
other countries last year not so
much because the consumption by
European mills was heavy as te-
cause Of the enormous amount that
was shipped out of this country,
thus removing the cotton for the time
being ,s q factor IN the American
supply situation. Exports to Europe,
China, Japan, India and other coun-
tries last year amounted to 10,506,-
465 bales, against 7,602,721 for the
year before. The previous record
for exports established several years
ago, was about 8,750,000 bales. Ex-
ports were heavy last season for a
variety OF reasons the contributing
causes being the size Of the Amer
lean crop and it's relatively low price,
combined with the shortage in the
crop Of India.
Obviously, it is not expected that
exports this season will come any
where near last years total Of TO-
506,000 bales. It is by no means
certain, however, that the volume OF
outgoing cotton will not be heavy
enough to cause severe drain on
this years production. Last season,
which ended August 81, Great Brit
,in took 4,243,000 bales, France l.
f98,000 and the Continent 5,064,-
600, Included in the Continental
exports, however, we're shipments OF
$4,000 bales to Mexico, $4,000
bales to Japan and $4,000 bales to
India. Further exports to India out
of Liverpool and Continental ship
ments amounted to about 100000
bales additional.
An attempt to figure out export
requirements for the coming season
brings forth some interesting re-
suits. Great Britain, on account OF
the splendid trade in Lancashire,
probably needs about 100000
bales. It Is hard to see how France
can get along with as little as 90O,-
900, or practically 100000 less than
last year; the Continent proper took
about 4,364,000. bales, and the min
imum calculation probably would be
$500, 900; China, japan and India
all told took about 100000 and the
most generous reduction could hard
ly place the needs of these countries
out of the present crop at less than
100000 bales. This most conserVa-
tive calculation makes total Of g.
100000 bales, with the estimate bas-
ed on cotton costing no more than
I'd. Liverpool or 13 cents in New
York. Naturally, If the price goes
higher, the export requirements will
decrease, but 3,750,000 bales looks
like an extremely low figure for ev-
en- minimum calculation, unless
prices go to an unexpected height.
Coming to the question Of Ameri-
can consumption last season, it
might be stated that while American
mills took about 5,500,000 bales,
the actual consumption, as figured
by Secretary Hester, was placed at
5,225,000 bales of American cotton.
A larger consumption Is expected
during the coming season for the
reason that a good many weak spots
in the textile situation in this coun-
try have been eliminated, and it is
altogether a question Of the supply
Of labor as to- the amount American
mills will consume, provided they
can get cotton at reasonable prices,
say anywhere under IA cents. At
present the mills in this country are
making more money on the average
than at any time since the boom OF
1907. The situation is much more
sound than it was then because JOB
bers and wholesalers have Kept
stocks of goods down to hand to
mouth basis. There is a theoretical
profit Of s12 to SIS bale in cotton
now used in print cloth manufacture
ed on the basis of 12-cent cotton. AS
there no very large supply Of goods
it would be comparatively easy to ad-
vance prices in case the raw mater