Daily capital journal. (Salem, Oregon) 1903-1919, 1912-04-08
ANALYSES
POLITICAL
SITUATION

Washington, March 29.-(Specia)-
The real purpose of the campaign OF
next fall is the election of a republi-
can to the presidency of the United
States in November. To take such
action as will make that possible
ought to be the first object of the
Republican National Convention at
Chicago in June. Some consideration
of patent political facts with regard
to the electoral vote Of the country
is therefore pertinent at this time.
There will be 5S1 votes in the next
electoral college, making 266 neces-
sary to eltct. There will be 100 votes
in the solid south, not counting Okla
homa and Missouri. Whoever is the
nominee Of the Democratic Convention
will start with 100 electoral votes as
sured him, and it will be necessary
for him to obtain only 106 additional
electoral votes in order to be elected.
1t becomes imperative, therefore, for
the republicans, in considering the
question of their candidate, to look for
a man who can be relied upon to
carry the ELECTORAL vote Of the north
ern and western states. In only %
of the 4S states Of the union is the
administration now in the hands of
Republicans. These states with their
vote in the electoral college, are:
California, 13; Delaware, 8; Illinois,
30; Iowa, 19; Kansas, 10; Maryland,
8; Michigan, IS; Minnesota, 70; Mis-
souri,, IS; Nebraska, s; New Hamp-
shire, 4 New Mexico, 8; Nevada, 8;
Pennsylvania, 3S; Rhode Island, s:
South Dakota, S; Tennessee, 70; Utah,
4; Vermont, 4; Washington, q; West
Virginia, 8; Wisconsin, 19; and wy
oming, 3; total, 23S.
II the republicans can hold the
states in which they now have the
governorships, they will need only 2S
additional electoral votes to carry the
next presidential election, Normally
the republicans can be expected to
carry all these states except Mary
land and Tennessee. Deducting the
20 votes Of these two states leaves
21S votes which, under normal con-
ditions, the republicans would be rea-
sonably certain Of carrying.
But conditions this year are very far
from normal. The governors Of ten
states, California, Kansas, Michigan,
Missouri, Nebraska, New Hampshire,
Nevada, South Dakota, West Virginia
and Wyoming, have openly Joined in
the movement for the nomination Of
Colonel Roosevelt. These states have
an aggregate Of 81 electoral votes. In
all of them, there is very strong OPP
position among republican voters to
Mr.. Taft, and It is in recognition Of
this anti-Taft feeling that the COVER
nors have declared for Colonel Roose-
velt. The republican voters in those
states, as In many other northern
states, are overwhelmingly in favor
Of the nomination of Colonel Roose-
velt, and il Mr.. Taft should be renom-
mated at the Chicago convention, It
would be practically impossible to get
out the normal republican vote at the
polls Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska,
South Dakota and West Virginia are
practically certain to be lost to the
republicans in the event Of the renom-
ination of Mr. Taft.
In six other states, which now have
Republican governors, Illinois, Iowa,
Minnesota, New Mexico, Washington
and Wisconsin, there is dedlced oppo-
sltion to Mr.. Taft, such that 1t is more
than doubtful whether any kind of
campaign that may be conducted in
case he should be renominated would
be able to bring out anythig like the
normal Republican vote at the polls.
These states have an aggregate of n
electoral votes This puts 164 elector-
al votes from 16 normally Republican
states into the doubtful column the
moment Mr. Taft is declared the nom
inee Of the Chicago convention and,
with more than half of them, It gives
strong probability of Democratic sue
cess.
Colonel Roosevelt can carry every
one Of these % Republican states, with
the possible exception of Maryland and
Tennessee. He would start with 2lS
certain electoral votes. It would be
necessary for him, then, In order to
win the election, to carry other states
aggregatlng only as electoral votes
There are 10 northern states which
now have Democratic administrations,
but which are normally Republican.
and every one Of which Colonel Rouse
welt carried in 1904 These states
with their electoral vote are