Daily capital journal. (Salem, Oregon) 1903-1919, 1912-03-25
ANALYZES
POLITICAL
SITUATION
(By Winfield Jones.)

here are working overtime trying to
figure out the outcome Of the presi-
dental election. The Democrats be-
lieve they are going to win.
One Of the biggest factors in the
election will be the state OF New
York. New York will go DemOcra-
tic, says the Democrats who are
building great hopes on carrying the
state.
The Republicans will not admit
that they will lose New York. Re-
publican leaders are relying upon
the large interests" to. pull them
through in the Empire state. De-
spite the air Of security that the Re-
publlcans assume in New York, they
realize what It would mean to lose
the state and are not under estlmat-
ing the strength of the Democrats.
Both parties will leave no stone un-
turned In the coming presidential
election to win the popular will Of
the people Of New York
AS the next national election draws
near, the importance Of New York
will be emphasized. That state, al
ways great battle ground in presi-
dental elections is now more so
than ever
In the last ELECTORAL college, there
were 483 votes. OF this number Taft
got 321 and Bryan 1862. Bryan re-
ceiyed the votes OF Alabama, Arkan-
sas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia,
Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Miss
issippi, Nebraska Nevada, North Car
lima, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Ten
nessee Texas, and Virginia. These
states then had a vote OF 1862 In the
electoral college, and under the re-
appOrtionment bill will have ia,
There is but little doubt that the
Democrats will again control these
state in the next election. Nothing
will break the solid south in the next
campaign.
In the next electoral college, there
Will be 531 votes including Arizona
and New Mexico. Two hundred and
sixty-six votes will be necessary for
an election.
Should the Democrats retain the
1862 votes they had in the last cleo
troll college, 1t will only be neces-
sary for them to gain 1O4 votes in
the next college to win the presi-
dency.
President Taft will in all probable
ity not carry his home state, Ohio,
If Gov. Judson Harmon is nominated
for president by the Democrats.
Many Democratic leaders assert that
If Harmon is nominated, he will car
ry the state by a large popular ma
jorlty, Harmon is about the only
man who could make things uncom-
Portable for Taft In Ohio. II Harmon
wrests the state away from the Re-
publicans, 1t would go a long ways
to assure the presidency to the Dem
ocrats.
An important state that will have a
great deal to do with the election Of
the next president is Illinois. The
chances favor It's retention by the
Republicans II can hardly be
classes as n doubtful state.
Eliminating Ohio and Illinois from
the Democratic column, the Demo-
Gratis may possibly gain these states.
California, l3; Missouri 18; New Jer-
sey, Ia; Minnesota, 49, Montana, 4 /;
West Virginia, s; Arizona. 3; Della
ware 3 Connecticut, Z; making a
total OF o. These states are all
doubtful and It is probable that the
Democrats will carry them in the
next election.
This bill may have an important
bearing upon the election. II was
passed In the senate only after Sena-
tor Root of New York, made fight
to leave the membership Of the house
at It's present number. This motion
being defeated, he tried to nx the
membership at 4O5 but this also was
defeated by combined vote of the
Democrats and insurgents.
With good strong vice presiden-
tial candidate from New York and
Harmon from Ohio tho Democrats
ought to be able to carry both of
these states II they carry New York
and Ohio, there will be little doubt
that the Republicans viii be clicked
to frazzle." Should the Demo-
Gratis nominate some other candidate
than Harmon they would have no
chance at all Of carrying Ohio. Taft
would undoubtedly sweep the state,
because II Is his home state and Is
also normally Republican, II the
Democrats lose Ohio they will stand
a good chance of defeat. II they
lose New York on top OF Ohio, in all
probability they would lose the cleo
ton II will be the best possible
political strategy for the Democrats
to nominate the presidential candl-
date from Ohio and the vice presi-
dontlnl candidate from Now York