Evening journal., 1912-11-04
Campaign Managers Optimistic

CONllNJE FROM FIRST PAGE.
they have just taken the known pos
sibility, added to It a general average
OF other figures, and then made public
what they hope viii be the result.
If Charles d. Hilles Is TO be be-
lieved, President Tafts reelection is
as certain as that tomorrow's sun is to
rise; William f. McCombs is sure that
Wilson and Marshall will carry every
state with three or four exceptions,
and Joseph II. Dixon's horizon con-
tains nothing but a picture Of the
utter triumph Of Colonel Theodore
Roosevelt
Topsy Turvey Condition.
IN the eastern group Of states condl-
tion are topsy-turvy. Starting up in
Maine the Republican Organization is
almost cut in half and the Democrats
were supremely confident today OF
sweeping the state although the Pro-
gressive organization was not con-
ceding this result, but up to the very
last minute had its best fighters In the
field It seemed almost certain that
the result here was between Wilson
and Roosevelt. and that President Taft
would finish third. Vermont, Mas
sachusetts and Connecticut were the
other backgrounds in the New Eng
land group. In these three states the
fight has been most bitter and the out
come so certainly rests with the way
the silent vote is cast that all reports
Df polls submitted to headquarters con-
tanned two sets, the first very rosy for
public consumption, and the second,
very pessimistic. made II very plain
that the party managers had been un-
able to get any real line on the feelings
OF the voters. There will be an early
line of New England tomorrow. II
viii come from Massachusetts, where
some of the polling places close early
in the afternoon. 1t will be possible to
forecast the result IN the state before
six o'clock, and if Wilson, Roosevelt
or Taft show big gains in the first
fragmentary figures sent out 1t Will be
likely, judging by past experiences,
That all of New England will vote about
along this line. Rhode Island. a great
manufacturing state and a high tariff
community has been generally con-
ceded by all of the campaign managers
as morally certain for Taft but during
the last fortnight the bull moose ora
tors have tried tostir up sentiment for
Roosevelt, and have claimed to be
successful.
AS New York goes so goes the
nation" has been slogan in every
campaign. Only three times in the
history of the country has Presi-
dental candidate been elected who
failed to get the electoral vote of the
Empire state. The fight in New York
has been very bitter and party lines
have been smashed in every section.
Old time Republicans have aided the
Pl Plogressive campaign up state, while
below the Harlem river, in the balli-
wick of Tammany Hall. old line Demo-
cratic warehouses have been shout
ing for Ro, sevelt and Johnson. Tam
many will poll almost its normal vote
in Manhattan and the Bronx, but there
is grave doubt Of what the outcome
will be in Kings county, where limo
thy l.. Woodruff, admittedly one of the
cleverest of campaign managers, has
devoted his entire time for the last
three months to organizing the Moose
forces. Most of his strength, the
Democrats say, has come from the
regular Republican organization. If
TINS is true then the Democrats ought
TO carry Kings county rather easily,
but Woodruff said only today that his
personal polls indicate that the Pro-
gressives will poll more votes in King
than both of the old parties COM
'bined Queens and Richmond, which
make up the remainder of the greater
city. viii probably vote along normal
lines and the outcome should be at
least a normal greater city plurality
for the Democratic candidates. What
will happen up state is hard to say. In
addition to Roosevelt's personal popu-
larity, he has been aided in the state
by the strength Of Oscar S. Straus the
Progressive gubernatorial candidate.
who is very popular in the cities of
the state, having been a Cleveland
Democrat until he left the party on
the gold and silver issue. The first
returns in New York will come about
o'clock at night from Buffalo, where
there are voting machines and will
show the swing If Wilson carries
Buffalo he will probably sweep the
state, according to the party veterans
who have kept in touch with the situ-
alton. The fight on the state ticket is
fully as interesting as the national.
When Tammany got control Of the
legislature following the election Of
Governor Dix, they amended the state
election law so that separate ballot
is provided for the presidential cleo
tors and the state ticket. This was
to "save" the ticket in Presidential
year when the "cornfelds" voted their
full strength Republican. With the
split in the Republican party the
Democrats have greatly regretted the
new law and it may complicate the
result so far as the state ticket is
concerned as it makes splitting easy.
Roosevelt, Wilson and Taft man
ayers have been claiming Pennsylvania
because of the mixed up conditions
prevailing there. It seems certain no
matter what the outcome on the ma
tional ticket may be. that the Repub-
lican state ticket will be elected. While
the fight on national issues is three
cornered, on the state ticket it is only
n two-handed conflict, and the Demo
cratic state managers privately have
admitted that only landslide will pull
their ticket through.
Delaware and Maryland are debat-
able ground as in former years, al
though the Democratic organizations
are more united than ever before and
McCombs insists that his reports show
sweeping Democratic victory certain
SO far as New Jersey is concerned. al
though the Bull Moose sentiment has
hppn vprv stronq here The general cX-