New-York tribune., 1912-02-10
This estimate, IT will he seen. leaves
the following in the doubtful column:
a Conservative Estimate.


Anv estimate which places these 146
votAs IN the doubtful column must be
coneeded to be extremely conservative
For instance, there is little doubt that
President Taft will receive Washing
TONS delegation, with a possible deduc-
tlon Of the delegates from three districts
leaving Mr.. Taft eight in sn Then IN
oregon the tide Of sentiment Is settns
go strongly toward the President that II
ie far safer prediction that he viii
have the entire delegation than that it
will 60 m any one else, so most political
leaders would place Oregon's ten dele
gates in the Taft column. The Presi-
dents friends in California are confident
that he will receive the solid delegation
from that state. now that law provtd-
ing for q popular Presidential primary
has been adopted. II is conceded that
before the passage Of that law the state
was clearly a La Toilette stronghold
not because the Wisconsite was partlcu-
Iarly strong with the people, but because
Governor Johnson and his organization
are committed TO La Toilette, and they
had il in their power 70 name the dele
gates irrespective of popular sentiment.
The opportunity now afforded the peo-
ple 10 express their choice, however.
wholly changes the situation. Even the
ia Toilette managers in California have
become disheartened, according 10 re-
uorts received here since the collapse
Of the wisconsinite.
Iowa, OF course, is conceded 10 Sena-
ter CSlmnins on the first ballot. although
the indications are that il will fall into
line for Mr.. Taft after that, or after
the second ballot, should there be sec
cnd No one familiar with the situation
IN Kansas believes the entire delegation
will vote against Mr.. Taft, and those
In the best position to judge believe he
VIII receive fourteen out Of the twenty
delegates from that state. There are
only three districts in Minnesota which
nre strongly insursent, and 1t is reas-
enable. presumption that Mr. Taft will
receive eighteen delegates from that
state. while there are three districts IN
Wisconsin in which La Toilette does not
find favor. go that the chances are they
will instruct their delegates to vote for
: the President.
Taft viii Win in a Walk
Representative Mckinley Is much en-
coura eed by the information furnished
70 him by Secretary Hilles, and is con-
ndent President Taft will win in a walk
on the first ballot in the national con-
Vention.
OF course. these estimates are in con-
fict with the claims of the insurgents,
hut IS has been pointed out I'm these dis
patches the claims of the insurgents will
rarely bear analysis For instance, only
this morning a special dispatch from
Nebraska asserted that Nebraska would
co fdr Roosevelt" on analysts tho dis
match showed merely that an agreement
had been reached between the support
ers of La Toilette ana those of Colonel
Roosevelt 10 tho effect that they would
all throw. their support 20 whichever
made the strongest showing al the polls.
According TO this dispatch. therefore, #
Mr. Roosevelt received three votes and
La Toilette two at the primaries the
La Toilette supporters would be bound
10 support Mr.. Roosevelt. There was
rothing in the dispatch. however, TO in
dicate the strength Of the combined
Rcosevelt-La Toilette forces, and. on the
other hand, there are trustworthy re-
ports from that state indicating that
President Taft will poll more votes than
either OF the others.
4 good deal Of the insurgent strength"
Is merely good press work, and much of
il. on clcse examination, will be found
10 be merely a case of the Tooley street
taIlors. Many formal declarations tha;
we, the Progressive Republicans Of ----,
pledge ourselves 10 support" etc., are
just about as representative Of their re-
spectiyc communities as those Southwick
knights Of the needle were representative
OF the people OF 1ngIand." This. by the