Yorkville enquirer. [volume] (Yorkville, S.C.) 1855-2006, 1912-09-20
THE OUTLOOK FOR COTTON.
Demand for 14,5ooy0oo Bales with Crop
of Not Over 100000.

of Not Over 14,000,ooo.
| Although the outlook for the .Ameri-
can cotton crop Is still more or less
mixed, owing to the conflicting reports
from, various sections of the cotton
belt, the prospective requirements Of
consumption are more clearly outlined
than Is usual so early In the season. OF
course, there are claims by both bulls
and bears, with the former predicting
a record consumption and the latter a
material falling Off owing to the in
crease in the size of the crops of other
countries. Last season the consump-
ton Of American cotton was 14,500,-
900 bales. This was a record. There
is reason, however. to believe that
practically as much will be used dur
ing the coming season notwithstand-
ing the fact that India and Egypt both
have larger crops than last year.
l. The average man interested in the
price Of American cotton, however, is
not concerned so much over what the
mills actually consume as much as he
Is regarding the amount that will be
taken by manufacturers. AS a matter
Of fact, the volume Of exports to other
countries and the amount Of cotton
needed by American spinners offers a
much more simple method Of figuring
| out an idea Of values than any analy-
sis Of prospects for actual consumption.
The cotton market advanced from early
In the year not so much because the
| consumption by European mills was
heavy as because Of the enormous
amount that was shipped out Of this
country, thus removing the cotton for
the time being as factor in the Amer
lean supply situation. Exports to
Europe, China, Japan, India and other
countries last year amounted to 10,606,-
465 bales against 7,6O2,721 the year be-
fore. The previous record for exports
established several years ago, was
about S,750,000 bales. Exports were
heavy last season for a variety Of rea-
sons-the contributing causes being the
size of the American crop and It's rela-
lively low price, combined with the
shortage in the crop of India.
Obviously, 1t is not expected that ex-
ports this season will come anywhere
near last years total Of 10,5O6.0OO bales
It is by no means certain, however,
that the volume Of outgoing cotton will
not be heavy enough to cause severe
drain on this years production. Last
season, which ended August 81, Great
Britain took 4,243.O00 bales. France
1,19S,000 and the Continent 5,5,064,00
Included in the continental exports,
however, were shipments Of $4,000 bales
to Mexico, $4,000 hales to Japan and
| 50, 900 bales to India. Further exports
to India out Of Liverpool and continen
| tai shipments amounted to about 100,-
| 900 bales additional.
An attempt 70 figure out export re-
quirements for the coming season
brings forth some interesting results.
Great Britain, on account Of the splen-
did trade in Lancashire, probably needs
about 100000 bales. 1t Is hard to see
| how France can get along with as lit
| tie as 100000 or practically 100000
less than last year; the Continent prop
er took about 4,364,O00 bales, and the
minimum calculation probably would
be 3,S00,000; China, Japan and India
all told took about 100000 and the most
generous reduction could hardly place
the needs of these countries out Of the
present crop at less than 100000 bales.
| This most conservative calculation
makes a total Of 100000 bales. with
| the estimate based on cotton costing no
more than I'd. Liverpool or 13 cents in
New York. Naturally, II the price goes
higher, the export requirements will de-
crease, but S,75O,000 bales looks like an
extremely low figure for even mini
mum calculation unless prices go to
an unexpected height.
Coming to the question Of American
consumption last season, 1t might be
| stated that while American mills took
| about 5,500,000 bales, the actual con-
sumption, as figured by Secretary Hes
ter, was placed at 5,225,00o bales Of
American cotton.
A larger consumption is expected
during the coming season for the rea-
son that a good many weak spots in
the textile situation In this country
have been eliminated, and 1t Is alto
gether a question Of the supply Of la
| Dor as to the amount American mills
will consume, provided they can get
cotton at reasonable prices, say any
where under IA cents. At present the
mills in this country are making more
money on the average than at any time
since the boom of 1907. The situation
is much more sound than 1t was then
because jobbers and wholesalers have
refrained from speculating and have
kept stocks Of goods down to q hand
to mouth basis. There is a theoretical
profit Of $12 to SIS bale in cotton now
used in print cloth manufactured on
the basis of 12-cent cotton. AS there
Is no very large supply Of goods 1t
would be comparatively easy to ad-
vance prices in case the raw meterial
market justified it.
Aside from the increase in the activ-
ity of spindles and looms. which Is
pushing manufacturers to the limit in
order to find adequate labor supply,
there has been a comfortable addition
to the mill equipment Of the country,
with about a million spindles added
to the southern mill list during the
last year, according to the southern
Textile Bulletin. 1t Is estimated that
this additional spindleage calls for an
increase in the use Of cotton amounting
to 250,OO0 bales. 1t is not unreasonable
therefore to estimate United States
and Canadian consumption Of Ameri-
can cotton during the present season
at approximately 5,750,000 bales, pro-
vided, of course, prices stay within
reasonable limits.
With export requirements on a basis
Of S,500,000 and American mill require
al. hoIa no