The sun., 1912-08-04
L|CHTSTERN STILL A BULL
ON THE WHEAT MARKET
Supposed to Have Been in the
Deal for Nearly Two
Years.
MOST OPERATORS BEARISH
Eleventh Hour Shorts in Corn
and Oats Take Their
Medicine.

p. Lichstern ie still considered a bul, ,
on wheat. His holdings are supposed to
be large. They have been. II is understood.
for nearly two years past. At times he has
seemed like a spec culative Atlas carrying !
q world OF wheat on his shoulders. The
load was relieved som ewhat on the big |
bulge In prices some time ago. but II seems |
he either did not have n chance to unload /
entirely or else he deliberately chose to ,
stand by his holdings In expectation Of
bullish Developments later In the year. |
Other big traders are not In evidence. They |
are supposed to he either holding aloof |
awaiting events to give them the cue Tor |
trading for long pull or else they are sim |
ply scslpinc the market until they can get
more light on the general situation. Nine !,
men out Of ten are bears on wheat just T,
now. but that would not necessarily influence |
the big operators. The crowd" may
make living but they do not accumulate
big fortunes. Men like Patten, Iichstern |
and others win or lose on big deals They
watch and wait and study. Then they
take a stand. They carry big line. often
many million sof bushels. for a long period.
They do not scalp" They are not daunted
by the changes in the market that would
make the ordinary trader turn pale. They
The giants sce gigantic s~inEs Of the market
unmoved. They put In supporting orders
II necessary and IL they are right In their
jude as to what the ultimate course
of the market Ia going to be they snatch
victory from what may at times look like
defeat.
| These big men are as rule doing little
or nothing now. Lichtstern. among the
faithful. faithful only he. stands by his
IL
may have powerful company later on.
That depends, Even big operators are At
| present following the old maxim Don't
! let 20 Of the windowsill till you feel your
feet on the ground"
! Meantime small traders largely dominate
the market. They were severely punished
! in some cases for staying short Of July
wheat. corn and oats. Some of them were
, vcnturesonie enough to remain short until
' the last day OF the month. which always
looks like a rather oool proceeding. Yet
ON the whole the July option on tho final
day proved a squeezed orange. tho price
suddenly dropping cents The average
trader is short OF the later months in wheat.
Wheat looks a. logical ~ short sale TO him
az anything logical in this world-as sure
/ as IA demonstration in Euclid. These loei-
clans reason consciously or unconsciOusly
thus in their speculative syllOgism: Major
premise. a big wheat crop means big
decline in the price. Minor premise. the
wheat crop IL big. Conclusion. there is to
be a big decline. The price Ia still 10 cents
above that OF year ago. Therefore they
have been going short ON as big scale as
they dare.
And certainly the news has recently been
of kind to stiffen their backbone Black
rust reports from North Dakota have given
them some moments Of uneasiness. but as
rule they have greeted such reports with
cynical grins and snapped their fingers at
them Eeapers in regiments. brigades.
divisions and even army corps have been
marching over the vast wheat region of
the West and incidentally outwitting the
rust. sometimes cutting the wchat green
rather than take chances with IL. II is
called a bumper" crop by many. Some of
the crop experts put IL at 5000 900 bushels
or more. AS against i9i 900 ,OO0 bushels
last year and c0O.O0o. .OOO to :6.OOO 600 in
most seasons for some years past. and even
24c 81? 800 bushels in the hiY year of 1915.
Seventy-fve per cent, Of the crop Of North
Dakota IL considered safe and all of South
Dakota and Minnesota.
As for winter wheat. though the movement
from Indiana and Illinois has thus far been
small the receipts from other parts Of the
winter wheat bolt have been large. Those
al Kansas City anu st. Louis have been
two or three times larger than those at the
corresponding time last year. An ocean Of
wheat IL sweeping into these markets.
And there may be an expOrtable surplus
in this country during the present season
larger than has been seen for years past.
In 1901 IL was comparatively small. Al
any rate the exports from the United States
in that season were only ~. 729. 900 bushels.
In i9"4-OS they were even smaller, only
<,304. 900 bushels. But in l0O7-OS they
reached iN.37l 900 bushels. The next year
they dropped to 90. .a23. .0tU coming down in
big steps. the next year being only 20, ,s7s. 900.
and. as We have seen. only :S. 720 100 In i00-il
) Some are predicting exports this year
. ths wheat year begins July i--of some
n. 600 900 bushels. The worlds shipments
thus far are III .c72 900 bushels. or . 800 OOO
bushels more than during the same time last
season. and of this gain .OOO.OOO bushels
O must be credited to this country.
U Crop reports from Russia are more fav or
able. The yield In France IL is now said
is likely to he larger than At one time seemed
probable. The outlook In Rumania IL
better. In Australia the crop prospects
j.. are favorable.
! Meantime the West is selling heavily
d TO arrive. The domestic demand 10 in
.. .. different. Dealers and millers are buyins
In q very leisurely fashion. They evidently
o think they have tho farmer just about
. where they want him.
II Have they?
There are eceptics on that point. Be-
sides. they think the short side is being over.
o done. And export business 10 beginning IA
appear. Our own wheat IL being fought
0 by Europe. The other day forty loads, OF
o 100000 bushels. were suddenly snapped
up. Heavy rains have been interfering
with the harvest in France. Russia's crop
9 II Broomhall is right. will be OF only averag.
D size and arrivals Of wheat are decreasing
! At the port of Odessa. In Italy there !,
o such scarcity of supplies that there 10 ar
active demand for foreign wheat Besides
tho Italian crop is not likely. IL appears
o 10 be large, An onical report makes tn,
. crop OF Hungary 7.oN.OOO bushels smaller
n than tho last one, In Germany tho pros
o poets for the wheat crop have been injured
u by bad weather and the fodder crop has also
been damaged. In tho United Kingdom
prolonged wet weather has had bad effect
thinning the plant so that the yield, H. /,
=, now stated, may turn out to be poor one
i All this may mean much
IL has bearing on our export trade The
. question for the future to decide 10 whether
tho foreign demand for our wheat, which
D has already begun. IL to offset tho increas.
In the crop In the United States. To the
great mass OF traders the situation looks
b"arish now. u is apt to at tho outset OF I
seasOn. The market even In years that
I ultimately turn out to be- hull years IL mn,