The Topeka state journal. [volume] (Topeka, Kansas) 1892-1980, 1912-06-05

0A@I 40 ~ 49,
get all but the more important prin-
ciples uL On which politics is based
There is q third factor frequently men
toned bv those who discuss these con
ditions. That is tn certainty that the
Panama canal will be opened to na1i
cation within a year, although perhaps
two years may pass before it is in full
operation.
something of a Paradox.
The statisticians at Washington need
only two months Of the present fiscal
year t. complete the record of the
year in our foreign trade The trade
of these two months-May and June
can be estimated with reasonable &C.
curacy. Soon after the first of July
there wi: come from Washington Of
fetal req rds which will show that the
present flscal year is to be distinguish
ed as the one in which the United
! States carried on the largest foreign
trade in the histor- of the nation.
This report, however. will seem
somewhat paradoxical if it be accepted
as true that general business conditions
in the United States in this fiscal wear
have been sluggish and unsatisfactory.
If our exports should reach the high
figure which will ne reported at the
end of the fiscal year because of some
exceptional marketing of one or two
products or because we were forced
to sell al any price to other nations
as we were h year after.the panic
of 1907. then an easy explanation of
~ 1CNOA0 AAohAA6 AOASlSh lTdu6 OF
the year could be found. There seems.
however. to have beer no exceptional
depreciation of any single product in
the sense that it was sold to foreign
countries at whatever price it would
fetch. We v increased our foreign
trade all along the line. Some of the
increases nave been very significant of
what the relation of the United States
to the markets of the world in iron
and steel products is speedily to be.
The Balance of Trade.
Already Wall street bankers, espe-
cially those that have international
relations. are figuring upon the appar-
ent international trade balance of this
est of American financiers said to the
present writer hat the cotton crop of
that year would save the United
States, for marketing of that crop in
Europe would max the difference be-
tween d favorable trade balance and
an unIavCrable one. The prediction
was apparently correct. Yet if the in
visible payments to other nations were
considered. We probably did run be-
hind in that year 1t is with difficulty
any approximately accurate idea
of what the real trade balance in
favor OF the United States is can be
formed. Apparently we shall have
to other nations in the present
fiscal year commodities of the money
value OF about two and
billion collars. In the same time we
shall have bought of foreign nations
commodities of the money value of
about ono billion, six hundred millions.
If these figures are justified by the Of
fetal report which is to be made in
July, then the apparent trade balance
n our favor in the present fiscal year
Will be about six and fifty
million dollars.
This, in fact. is the sum mentioned
by many of our International bankers
as the probable amount of our inter-
trade balance.
A few years ago-in fact, as recently
as two years ago-it would have been
necessary to cut heavily into the fig
represented by the international
trade balance in our favor. because
were paid to Europe,
and especially to Great Britain, for
for insurance, also in the way
Of dividends or interest Upon Euro
oean investment in -tmerican ~securi-
les. Furthermore, there was the
arge amount of letters of credit is
'ued to Americans who spent the sum
ner in Europe. 1t was sometimes es-l
mated that these invisible items
because no official record was
of them-and, Furthermore, be-
nus it is impossible to secure any
more than a general estimate
a good guess at the
mount of money paid in this way to
Great Britain and to Europe
to something like three
hundred millions a year. Should that
estimate hold good for this year. then
he actual and available trade balance
present fiscal year shoul be about
.hree undred and fifty million IL
ars.
But it so happens thai this year this
payment has been greatly rel
through the Investment the
especially, through the heavy
which American bankers have
in Germany. At all events. it
g regarded as reasonable to assume
hat the actual balance in favor of the
United States from its foreign trade in
he present fiscal year will be not far
rom four hundred million dollars.
One Reason for Optimism.
In a record of this kind is to be
discovered one of the reasons for the
characteristics of the financial center
# the United States at this time. For
here is every indication that, enor-
as has been our foreign trade,
Lpproximating. in grand total, about
billion nine million dol
ars, yet this trade will continue and
presumably increase in h fiscal year
Which begins on July 1. Of course,
'ur sales to Europe of raw cotton and
he money received therefor will de-
'end upon the size of the harvest. In
he present fiscal year we shall have
old to Great Britain and other a
raw cotton of the money value
# about five hundred and ninety mil
ion dollars. That however, is not SO
impressive a foreign trade as is the
ne associated with our iron and steel
Exports. Next to cotton stands the
money value of our iron and steel ex-
'orts, and while our trade in raw cot
on must depend upon the harvests our
of steel and iron products to 9TH
r nations is steadily increasing and
n recent years has beer very rapidly
Increasing. Who would have dared to
'redict a few years ago that we would
ell in a single year iron and steel
to other nations in money
a hundred million dollars more
we sold of meat and dairy prod
and a hundred and thirty mill
ions more than we sold of read