The Washington herald., 1912-11-22
Army of sixty ThouSand.
CHINO O-RUSSIAN WAR
RUMORS DISCOUNTED HERE

Bellicose dispatches from China to the
effect that the young republic is about
to make war on Russia over the Mon
golian question are not taken seriously
in weIl-informed circles here. Despite
the daily reiteration of statements that
troops are being modified in China for
an advance on Mongolia, those most
familiar with the state OF affairs in China
continue to attach little or no significance
to such talk.
No matter how popular a war with Rus
sia may be. It is the general conviction
in Washington that President Yuan
Shih Kai Will not be led into the folly Of
giving his sanction to it. Talk Of war
without Yuan supporting il is regarded
as the height OF absurdity
Yuan's policy. il Is officially known
here. is to deal with Russia by ncgutia-
ton. He already has chosen a man to
take up the question with the represent
attve Of Russia in Pekin. and there is
no doubt here but that the Mongolian
question will find its settlement by
peaceful discussion and bargaining.
War Talk Will Continue.
That war talk will continue. and that
Yuan's policy WIN be attacked with in
creasing bitterness. is rather expected
here. The enthusiasm already shown by
the people generally and the army over
the plans OF the militarists Is taken as
an indication OF what may be expected
Yuan has already lost, by resignation
his minister Of foreign affairs. who was
obliged to withdraw from the cabinet
because of his refusal 20 join with Yuan
and the government in a peace policy
toward Russia. 1t is not believed. how
lae - Iii
do more than make II rather uncomfort-
able for Yuans administration.
The hold of China on Mongolia, both
physical and political, is so slim, that It
is believed that there can be but one
outcome to the controversy. that is. that
Russia will have her way and Outer
Mongolia will be independent under the
tutelage OF Russia. Russias recognition,
months ago. OF the declaration of indie
pendenCe issued by the Outer Mongolians.
was regarded at the time as settling the
status OF Outer Mongolia as a buffer
state for some time to come. Russia has
a much firmer hold on Outer Mongolia
than has China. She has filled II with
her Consuls and her traders. and even
has sent her soldiers into Outer Mon
golia. China never has eXerted real con-
troll over this region. and for years Outer
Mongolia has been in far closer relations
with Russia than with her nominal
rulers
Separated by Desert.
Physically. Outer Mongolia is separated
not only from China proper, but even
from Inner Mongolia, by the great Cobb
desert. This desert is in itself an almost
insurmountable barrier in the way of
close relations between China and Outer
Mongolia Between Russia and Outer
Mongolia, on the other hand. there is
no such barrier and Russia has taken
full advantage OF that fact.
The Russian insistence upon the inde-
pendence Of Outer Mongolia is generally
believed to be the first step in her new
plans to reach China proper by a rail-
road. The Japanese war brought a set
back to these plans. and resulted in a
of the programme, but did
not lessen Russia's determination
There is no intention upon the part of
the United States government to inter-
fere with Russia's programme. so far
as it affects Outer Mongolia. 1t is well
recognized that China has proved her
self incompetent to hold the vast region
the northern fringe of the en-
pire, and, on the other hand, Russia's
as an incontrovertible fact.
Recent criticism Of the United States
for not intervening to save Mongolia to
China, which was published in a London
paper. brought forth the retort from OBJ |
servers here that no demand upon the |
part OF the British press for the United |
States to save Tibet from the domina- |
ton of Great Britain had been noted. |
rhe two cases are regarded as practi- |
cally identical, and Great Britain re-
Gently prevented China from sending her
into Tibet.