Ashland tidings. [volume] (Ashland, Or.) 1876-1919, 1912-09-16
JOHNSON OR MARSHALL
Possible Deadlock on President Opens
Fascinating Field of Political
Speculation.

Washington, ID. C.-Elther Hiram
Johnson or Thomas r. Marshall may
be the next president of the United
States. This is not at all an impossi-
BILE outcome of the present campaign.
A good many outcomes are possible.
Indeed, there never was a time when
the field of political speculation was
so fascinating.
Here are a few of the theoretical
possibilities:
/. Woodrow Wilson may sweep
the country by an overwhelming vote.
2 Theodore Roosevelt may sweep
the country by an Overwhelming
vote.
3. A division of the progressives
of the country between Roosevelt
and Wilson might leave a winning
majority to Taft Extremely unlike
ly).
A. No candidate may get a major
ity of the votes in the electoral col
lege, and the house of representa-
tives will under the constitution,
have to choose a president, while the
senate chooses a vice-president.
). The house of representatives
may be deadlocked and be unable to
choose president.
! 6. The senate may be compelled
to choose between two candidates for
vice-president having the highest
votes and the candidate so chosen
may thus serve as president
1t is not at all unlikely that the
three-sided contest will throw the de-
cision into the house of representa-
tives. 1t is already pretty generally
conceded that the race is to be be-
/ tween Wilson and Roosevelt. In all
test polls taken Taft is shown as a
very poor third. Roosevelt is obvi-
ously strong in the west. Wilson
may be stronger in the east than
Roosevelt. If Roosevelt carries prac-
| tically all states west of the Missis-
sippi and breaks even with Wilson
on the doubtful states of the middle
west, leaving Wilson the solid south,
with Taft gathering in some of the
old-line republican states like Yer
mont, Rhode Island, New Hampshire,
Delaware, Utah and possibly New
York, no candidate would have a
majority in the electoral college.
The total number of votes in the
electoral college this year will be
DOL. "A lIg Will DC -pp' ~
Taft carries the above named states,
he will have 65 votes in the electoral
college. Subtract these 65 from the
total of 531 and there are left 446
votes to be divided between Wilson
and Roosevelt. Half of 466 is 233.
Thus if they should evenly divide
these votes, neither Roosevelt nor
Wilson would have the necessary
majority, 266. Thus the election of
a president would be thrown into the
house of representatives.
On the basis of party affiliations
as recorded in the official congress
sional directory, the house of repre-
sentatives today stands absolutely
deadlocked The constitution pro-
vdes that in voting for president
they must observe the unit rule
that is, vote by states. But the rec
ords show the states to stand 22
democratic to 22 republican, with the
delegations of the other states evenly
divided between the parties. Thus,
on the basis of state votes, the house
is deadlocked
The constitution provides that the
members of the house must choose
from among the three candidates
having the highest votes in the cleo
toral college. So the representatives
are confined in their choice to Roose-
welt, Wilson or Taft. Assuming that
the deadlock remains .unbroken be-
tween the date of the convening of
congress in December and March d,
when Mr.. Taft's term expires, the
office would be filled by the senate S
choice of vice-president
The constitution provides that in
choosing a vice-president the senate
shall confine itself to the two candi-
dates having the highest vote in the
electoral college. 1t is safe to as
sumo that this would narrow the
choice down to Hiram Johnson and
Thomas Marshall, eliminating Mr..
; Sherman. This choice of vice-presi-
dent in the senate cannot be easily
determined on lines of party affilia-
ton. The democrats are without a
majority in the senate and on the
other hand the old-line republicans
like Penrose, Gallinger and the rest
would not be permitted to vote for
Sherman, but make choice between
Hiram Johnson and the democratic
candidate, Thomas Marshall AS
suming that Johnson would be re-
garded as a republican, although a
progressive and a Bull Mooser, the
republicans plus the progressive re-
publicans could elect him. 1t is
hardly conceivable than men like
Y Lodge and Penrose could vote for a
democrat, Thomas Marshall On the
other hand, the special privilege SEN
ators could easily avoid the issue by
having enough of their party absent
themselves to allow the democrats a
majority and thus by indirection ac-
| complish the election of Marshall
who might be more satisfactory to
big business than Hiram Johnson.
If both senate and house should
remain deadlocked up to March 4
Z when Mr.. Taft will cease to be presi-
dent, under the present law, the of
v flee would be filled ad interim by the
secretary of state, Philander c. Knox
until such time as a new election
p could be held.