The Detroit times., 1912-10-12

<Dlote a. 70 the states. II IL simply
straw IN the wind, accurate so far as
11t affects hedocafties where the poll
XnB taken. @sse@.
These three states were chosen be-
!. caussF they are .rsgarded- as pivotal.
4Whateyer happens In the other parts
-of the country, the history-making vote
I VIII ha that cast in these three
! states. The total votes In the cleo
toral college amount to 531. The
number necessary to elect IL 266. OF
\ this, the three states OF New York,
= Pennsslvania. ana Indiana, cast SO.
y Il iOOkB now as n Roosevelt would
have SOLID west. to match Wood
ROW wilson's sSoiid south" and that
the battle will turn on what happens
1 a the states OF the middle west and
I. fhe-sast- -These-ars. sample states in
4 these Bections. - - = - -
An effort has been made to secure
city and rural OF small town senti-
ment IN each state. For example,
IN Philadelphia and half In Lancaster.
I'D Indiana, half the cards were
r1ent TO 1ndisuxpOiis voters and
half to voters In Richmond. For
New York; statey Trey and Elmira
were chosen The names chosen
Y we're taken at random from the city
/. directoriea taking the top name on
each page Tor two or FIVE pages as
the case might bel in each directory,
according to the size OF the town. BY
this method the right proportion OF
all c1asses OF voters is reached and
There is no chance for prejudice by
>telection OF certain persons to be
tQolled. The names OF the candidates
on the return postal cards were ar
ranged I'm the order In which they
vera nominated with Taft's name
leading. The persons polled were |
asked to send in the returns without |
ainElng their names 30 that the vote |
might bN1 endrely secret So far as |
th&d - returns from this poll, Il |
0ueE 70 gfve ~ Aif Indication or pub |
ilc sentiment In the communities
~ Il = is--sienifcant that in both In
diana and Pennsylvania Taft Is run
ming rather poor third This bears
ont nther- polls and -corroborates the
statements made by Hiram Johnson
and SenatQT Dixon. that. throughout
'f41 west az least Taft Is a negligible
4I|1[II{ t1d Il would Indicate that
~ ~ ~ ~ We east be is equally neg
II kho1gh IN New YORK he still
IL I5c xfTenytfr. 1fg-B-sscunu man
[./< md R0osevcit third = 1865
- - - sighiecant- that Wilson
has ! long lead on Taft In New York
state. II should be remembered, how.
1xfr< that no campaign- has as yet
11feu made in New York state. The
late tickets have only just been
Xtminated. and all the conditions OF
me poll were as unfavorable as DOS
NE for Roosevelt. After he has
<3mpaigned the east, and particularly
/~ New York, ana ufter tire Demo
&<&tic nOminatfons have been looked
#<&r by the v0ters and the latter have
Nd chanas-to take stock, the re.
1II|fs may~1he3 very much changed.
IIIjs pollznlso leaves out OF account
X[eater Hew York. which always Is
large FACTOR in national elections.
bud generally on the side OF the
U<mocratic candidate
Unless Roosevelt can break the
IUIid south, Il Ia necessary for him
<1carry New York In order to have
#uough votes TO win. Even should he
1&<ry Pennsylvania and Indiana, with
80 other states of-simfiar political
@1OpIoxion, should he lose New York
~ would lack the votes. necessary
~ win. Probably -as--nsver- before,
|1ereforf, New York is the pivotal
0|ate on which this election turns.
An interesting feature OF this mol
the strong showing OF Debs, the
91<ialist candidate. In Indiana. Debs
I1IIs Is TO Taft's IS. In Pennsylvania.
NJ has ~ TO -rAft's 81: and in New
xrrk. ~ to Roosevelt's as. This
<o<ild seem 70 indicate that the So
eiaiist vote will not be materially az.
[@efed by Roosevelt's candidacy. but
<hat Roosevelt will draw, his strength
H1m the two old parties In the main.
Considering the country as a whole
nth what meagre information II il
how possible to gather. and bearing
I mind that election day IL still Ave
|&eks off--it IL evident that the race
likely 20 be q close one between
|@okeFeIt and Wilson. with the latter
#/ored by predictions based on reg.
~ 'political FORM