The Topeka state journal. [volume] (Topeka, Kansas) 1892-1980, 1912-01-22
Early Estimates Correct Because
Growth Is Gradual.
Increase in Manufactured Ex-
pOrtatiOns Makes Up Gain.
TO IMPORT WHEAT
OBSERVATION-DISCLOSURES
Production, Holland Says.
Z. s., England and Germany in
Commerce War.

New York, Jan. 22.-One Of the best
proofs of a healthful and reasonable
increase IN the foreign commerce Of
the United States in the year 1911, as
compared with other years, is the fact
that the expert statisticians, both i'll
this city and in Washington, were able
SO long ago as October, to estimate,
with what is now shown to be approx
mately correct calculations, what the
money value of our exports for the en-
tire year would be and likewise the
money value of our imports. Had our
foreign commerce been spasmOdic or
had it been Influenced, as it was in the
year 1908. by exceptional circumstances
the very heavy exports of 1908 being
accounted for by the sire of the
people of the United States to over
come as speedily as possible the effects
of the panic of 1907-then it would have
been impossible to predict with any
thing like accuracy in October what the
total Of foreign commerce of the Uni
ted States measured by dollars in the
year 1911 would be.
1t was the estimate in October that
the exports of the United States for
the calendar year would be of the mon
ey value of about two billion dollars
The official figures show that this guess
was approximately accurate. The mon
ey value of the exports for 1911 is 81
millions, round numbers, i'll excess OF
billion dollars. In fact this excess
of 90 millions over the 2 billion dollar
mark represents almost exactly the
gain which our exports made in the
year 1911 as compared with any other
year. We sold to foreign countries
little over 100 million dollars worth Of
goods more than we ever sold before
So, also, some of the estimates made
in October figure that the apparent
trade balance in our favor on the en-
tire years foreign commerce would
be about $50 million dollars. This guess
was about 10 millions less than the ex-
act figures reported from Washington
Visible and Invisible Balances.
If it could be known how much the
United States paid to other nations in
the year 1911 for freight, for instance,
in the form OF interest upon loans and
foreign investment or how large a sum
of money was expended in the form of
travellers letters of credit, then it would
be possible 10 show what the exact bal !
Rnce in our favor of the years transac- /
of guessing can give an estimate as to
the amount of money the United States |
paid to other natiOns-especially to |
Ensla nd-ln invisible ways, that is tC !
say, ways of which there is no record
available for statistical purposes.
But it is observed that the common |
impression among those whose business |
is with foreign exchange is that on the |
entries years ransacticn-visible and |
invisible-of public record and of pri- |
vate memorandum only, there ought to |
stand to the credit Of the United States |
at least 200 million dollars
Factors in Our Foreign Commerce.
There are some extraordinarily sig |
nifcant factors in the general sum |
which gives the aggregate result of our |
foreign commerce In the first place |
about tiree-fourths Of that commerce |
was made up of two general items |
These two were exports Of maDUfactur- |
ed commodities and, next. exports of |
cotton Had it not been for an in |
crease in our exports of manufactures
which is amazing Europe, although the |
Importance of it seems not yet fully
understood in the United States we
should have made a sorry showing of
our international commerce in 1911
Not more than ten years have passed
since the prediction made in this
city, in Washington and in Chicago that
the United States was beginning to lose
cultural products-eXceptlng eOttOn=ai- |
though it was possible that a loss or this
kind might be made up by an increase IN
our exports Of manufactured articles. Yet
that man who. at the beginning OF pres
eat century, had ventured to predict that
within eleven or twelve years the exports
of manufactured products from the !
United States would be of a money value /
twice as great as the exports of agr1cul-
tIraI products exclusive of cotton would |
have been regarded as a man given to
wild prophecies
OF the exports of manufactured pro
ducts steel and iron make in round num- !
bers nearly neutrality-suspicious. now in
terms of dollars. Even before the dav OF
the great combinations the late A BRAN |
S. Hewitt, who was master OF industrial |
statistics. especially of iron and steel sta
tistics dared to predict that within fifteen
or twenty years the United Staes would |
become he greatest producer of iron ana !
steel in the world and ought, within that |
time, to match, possibly surpass Great
Britain. as an exporter of these products
The increase in our exports Of iron AMI
steel products within the past two or
three years has very greatly impressed !
the financiers and some of the statesmen
OF Europe
other side of the Picture
On the other hand, the changes which
have been in progress for the past four or
five years in our foreign commerce have
caused some Of the leading business men
of the United States no little concern.
AS long ago as 1891, 1875, John w
BoOkwa1ter. who was at one time Demo-
cratic candidate for governor OF Ohio
ventured the prediction that the popuIa-
ton of the United States was increasing
relatively more rapidly than our produc-
ton of wheat Mr.. Bookwalter thought
cultivation, either by irrigation or by the
expansion of railway transportation the
people of the United States might be
compelled to import wheat before a quar-
ter of q century had passed
For making that statement Mr. Book
walter was criticised. sometime seriously
more OLlCA4 A4dA4AC-CtSAls ana YET what he
then ventured TO predict, conditionalIv !
James J. Hill. William c. Brown ano |
others of the great railway leaders of the
limited States have within the past two ar
three years asserted to be a fact which
can no longer be disputed. The popula
ton is growing more rapidly than whe5t
production. relatively speaking.
Recently Mr.. Hfll and a year ago Pres
ideut Brown Of the New York Central |
in addresses or public communications |
the people OF the United states l.
to take heed of these changing conditions
ans to attempt. by more economic cult |
walton of the soil and by a wide diversity
in the production of agricultural products