The Washington times., 1912-07-15
TAFT IS PICKED
FOR POOR THIRD
IN COMING RACE
Real Presidential Contest
Now Between Col. Roose-
velt and DR.. Wilson.
Continued from First Page.)

tional chairman, and William @. Nc
Adoo. the New York traction-tunnel
magnate, as head of the financial side
OF the organization, will be the biggest
ngures; but the governor himself will
reserve the right to veto anything his
managers may propose.
From Chicago comes the report that
the Democratic committeeman there are
pretty well agreed that west of the
Allegheny mountains Taft win be third
man In the race. This view Is expressed
fornia, who thinks there is no doubt
about the real fight in his State being
between Roosevelt and Wilson. He
claims to believe Wilson will win. but
indicates that it's going to be hard
fight. The Washington, Oregon, and
both Dakota committeeman guess that
1t Will be between Roosevelt and Will
son. and declare that Taft will get
enough votes to make 1t impossible for
Roosevelt to carry their States. AS
those States, however, are all over
whelmingly Republican, this analysis
does not altogether satisfy practical
Democratic politicians, who want to see
I some figures. In Oregon. for instance.
, the Democrats got 38. 900 votes in 1908,
to $1,000 for the Republicans. Tart, on
the basis of that figure. might hold A,oVo
Republican votes and still leave enough
to elect Roosevelt. even II he didn't get
any Democratic votes. which all the
Westerners agree he will do.
Case of South Dakota.
South Dakota presents a still more diff
ficult case for the Democrats -Four
years ago It polled 10000 Democratic and
g., 900 Republican votes. Roosevelt has
but to get a little more than half the
Republican vote, to match the Demo-
cratic strength as recorded them. 1t
is difficult, in the face of the primary
election result in that State. to calcu-
late how Roosevelt can fail to Garry 1t.
North Dakota Is still worse, as DEM
ocratic prospect. 1t cast $1,000 Demo-
cratic and almost $1,000 Republican
election showed Taft to have practically
no following at all in the State. Roose-
Welt, on the figures, appears certain to
sweep the State by big majority.
Election. The Democratic committee
man from there, Fred Lynch, declares
at Chicago that Wilson will carry the
State. Politicians, turning to the cleo
tion reports, find that four years ago
there were almost twice as many Re-
publicans as Democrats in the State.
To be specific, the Republicans polled
$4,000 against 109, 600 the Democrats
counted. Can Taft draw away from
Roosevelt enough to prevent him carry
in the view of the clear-headed poll
rcans. They point out IL the Republi-
can vote of four years ago should be
divided equally, 1t would give Roose-
that the Democrats held; and Roose-
velt Is counted on to pull more than
enough from the Democratic column to
make him the winner, even in so ex-
treme a case as has been suggested.
Right there lies the great difficulty
with all the Democratic claims of con-
idence about the result. The Republi-
can States have been so overwhelming
Ia. ~
was running, or somebody backed by
him, that it requires a tremendous lot
of optimism for a Democrat to believe
that they will divide so equally, at this
tuncture, as to give their votes to a
Democrat
Pennsylvania An Example.
Pennsylvania affords one OF the ex-
cellent examples of this situation. In
1908 it gave 745,000 Republican and AS, ,00)
Democratic votes. That is. there was a
Republican plurality of 297,0Ov. Now,
Pennsylvania is going to give the i'm
mense preponderance of it's Republican
vote to Roosevelt. The recent political
revolution, wrought in the State pri-
maries, makes this entirely plain.
If the Democratic candidate holds all
his votes as of four years ago, 1t is
still possible for Roosevelt to concede
10 per cent of the Republican vote to
IaIt ana Stlll carry the Stdte!
Such calculations as these of necessity
do not take into consideration the vast
shifts that will be made this year. Will
son will get good many Republican
votes in Pennsylvania; Roosevelt will
get many Democratic. There will be
changes of the most unexpected and re-
markable character and volume. But
the fact remains that either candidate
who gets 80 per cent of the Republican
vote of 1908 will have more votes than
the Democrats counted in that year, and
that indicates that 1t will require a real
political revolution to land a Wilson
electoral ticket, even in the office OF
present demoralized conditions.
President Taft, as politicians view 1t,
will get most Of his popular vote in
States where 1t will mean electoral votes
to him. Therefore, 1t is calculated,
Roosevelt will have lead in the cleo
toral college entirely out of proportion
to his lead in the popular vote. Taft
will be an exceeding bad third, with
probably a small handful of these to
his credit. The fight will be between
Wilson and Roosevelt.