The Washington herald., 1912-09-29
THE POLITICAL SITUATION

HE fULlllOtL OIL OhllOl>
II there has been one political de-
velopment more noticeable than any
other during the week, it is that the
Roosevelt movement is losing ground.
The repeated assaults upon the former
President are having their effect.
President TAFT is naturally the largest
gamer by the disintegration of the
third party, but Gov. Wilson is also
getting some of the votes. 1t is now
apparent that the Presidential contest
is between Taft and Wilson, and that
Roosevelt will be bad third.
If Col. Roosevelt should receive on
election day all the votes which he was
given in the primaries, he would not
have in any State more than one-third
of the Republican strength. He polled
10000 votes in the Illinois primaries
last May, but the total Republican vote
in Illinois in 1904 and 1908 averaged
100000. In Maryland, where the Re
publicans usually cast about 10000
votes, Mr. Roosevelt received less than
10000 In California last May, when
Mr.. Roosevelt carried the State by H.
ooo the combined vote polled by Taft.
Roosevelt, Wilson, La Toilette, Clark,
and Harmon was only one-third of the
vote of the State. There is not State
in which, even if Roosevelt holds his
full primary vote, there would not be
at least two-thirds majority against
him.
But Mr.. Roosevelt cannot, and will
not, receive as large a vote on election
day as was given him last spring. He
was then a loyal Republican seeking
the Presidential nomination at the
hands of his party To-day he has
renowned the Republican party and is
openly asserting that it is not good
enough for him. There are thousands
upon thousands of Republicans who
will not follow him out of the party
All doubt as to the accuracy of this
statement is removed when an analysis
is made OF the primaries which have
been held since the national convention
adjourned. In every State where the
people have had an opportunity to ex-
press their sentiments the verdict has
been adverse 10 Mr. Roosevelt In
Vermont his ticket ran third. In Maine
the united Republican party trans
formed a Democratic plurality of 5000
two years ago into a Republican plu-
rality of nearly 1000 In Michigan the
Progressives made a pitiful showing,
polling about 5000 out of 10000 votes
In Minnesota and Colorado the Repub-
lican candidates were successful over
their third party opponents. In Wash
ington the Republican votes outnum-
bered the Democratic and Progressive
votes combined; and in California the
Roosevelt majority of 1900 last spring
dwindled this month to less than 1900
Surely this array of facts is convinc-
ing evidence that the bottom has fallen
out OF the Roosevelt third party move
ment If anything more is needed, it
is to be found in the unanimity of the
reports to the same effect which are
being received both at the Republican
and Democratic headquarters The in
formation is SO universal that it must
have foundation in fact In addition
TO this, poll of a precinct in Illinois,
made at random, shows that Roosevelt
will not receive on election day over
per cent of the votes given him in
the primary. If this ratio should prove
universal, President Taft will carry
Illinois by substantial majority.
1t may be accepted as an absolute
certainty that Mr. Roosevelt not only
cannot be elected, but that the extrava-
giant claims made for him when he
first became a boiling candidate will
not be realized. The tide is turning
against him. He hurt rather than
helped himself by his trip through the
Rocky Mountain and Pacific Coast
States; for he contented himself with
denunciation of conditions without Of
fering any constructive programme In
the far West, as well as in the middle
section of the country, his meetings
have lacked both enthusiasm and num-
bers.
If the Republican managers can con-
vince the country that Roosevelt has
been eliminated, they will have gained
a distinct advantage in the contest.
1t is necessary that they shall thus
demonstrate Roosevelt's impossibiliy
of election in order to secure the sup
port of the many Republicans who
openly announce that they will vote for