Arizona republican., 1912-09-02
GAR SHORTAGE
 |S IMMINENT
w. A. Garrett, Railroad Manager Appeals to the Shippers and Commercial Bodies to Aid in Fore
 stalling Business Menace.

 cial organizations in the west, is being sent out by w. A Garrett chairman of the Western Association of Railroads, giving warning that it is possible there will be a severe car shortage this fall unless shippers and c"nsignees cooperate with the rail- way managers to avert it.
 The time is here for the railways and shippers of the United States to begin active and energetic prepara- tions to prevent a car shortage. The indications are that if they do not begin such preparations at once they will be confronted next October with the worst situation that has existed since October. 1907, just before the panic. No railway man or shipper needs to be told what that situation was. None needs to be told what was the condition in the preceding fall and winter of 1906-1907. Railway facilities were inadequate to move the business; yards and terminals were congested; and heavy loss to the railways; the shippers and the public resulted.
 Why do I think we are likely to be confronted with similar condi- tiOn this fall unless all concerned join hands and heartily cooperate to prevent it? The belief is based on the car surplus and shortage figures of the American Railway Association. The latest figures we have show the car situation on July IS, 1912. Let us see what was the situation on prac tically the same date in each of the last preceding four years, and what followed.
 "On July 22, 1908, the car surplus was 30S, ,6S0 and the shortage 509, a net surplus of 30S,071. On October 2S. 1908. the surplus had been re- duced to 110,912 and the shortage had increased to 1O,839 leaving net sur rlus of 1OO.O73 This was a decline in available cars since July of 207,99S
 "On July 21, 1909. the surplus was 243334 and the shortage 339. making a net surplus of 243,O15 cars. On Oc- tober 27, 1909 the surplus had been reduced to 3O,S96 and the shortage had increased to 36,63G. leaving a net shortage of 5740 cars. This was a reou- ton in the available car supply since July of 24S,765
 "On July 20, 1910, the surplus was 134594 and the shortage 1293, making a net surplus of 133,3O1. By october 26 the surplus was down to 13,072 and the shortage up to 21,S96, mak- ing a net shortage of 8S24 cars. This was a reduction in net available car S,1pp1y since yTu1v of 142 125.
 "On July 19 1911. the surplus was 15O,433 and the shortage 1861, making a net surplus of 149,072. By october 25 the surplus was down to 39,3O6 and the shortage up to 18,774, leav- ing a net surplus of 2O.532. This was a reduction in the available car sup ply since July of 128,540 cars.
 Tn these four years the reduction in the net car supply between the third week in July and the third week in October varied from 12S,54O to 248.765 cars. On July IS, 1912, the surplus was 75,3S9 and the shortage 6467. making a net surplus of 6S,922. Therefore, if the reduction in the available car supply between July and October, 1912, be only equal to the smallest reduction that has talk en place in the same period in any of the preceding four years, viz, 128.54O cars, we would be confronted on October 25 with a net shortage of 59.618 cars. If the reduction in the available supply of cars should be as great as it was in 1909 we would face on october 25 shortage of 189147 cars.
 "The situation created by even the smaller of these shortages would be appalling and the resulting losses suffered by all commercial, industrial and transportation interests enor- nous.
 "Conditions that are likely to cause a heavy demand for, and a rapid | reduction in the supply of, cars ex- ist The amount of traffic handled | varies greatly during different parts | of the year. During about four ! months. beginning around October 1, | there are apt to be shortages. This | is owing chiefly to the fact that that | ments. Now, the crop prospects in the west this year are unusually | good. That helps to make the pros pect or car shortage uluSudliy Ddu
 The railway arrangements are do- ing and will do everything that they | can to provide for satisfactory han 1 ding of the traffic. Their net earn ings per mile were less in the fiscal year 1911 than they were in 1910, and they were less in 1912 than they were in 1911 Meantime, in 1912 their taxes were increased over 1911 and in 1911 they increased over 1910. These developments. both of them the managers ability to maintain and develop the properties, have prevented, and are still pre- venting, them from buying the equip nent and making the other improve merits that conditions demand. The situation apparently confronting us $ precisely what the managers re- Deatedly during recent years have would come if the present policy of regulation were not chang d. Nevertheless, hampered though hey have been, they have made improvements in plants md operating methods. For some ears the. purchases of equipment were relatively small, but recently hey have substantially increased. {;