New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1912-11-03


National Grange. who led the opposl-
ton to reciprocity, and who has taken
pains to make it clear that so long as
reciprocity was an issue Mr. Roosevelt
did everything in his power to bring
it about, and that he never dreamed
of opposing it until he thought he could
do so to his political advantage. has
largely Offset the third party's work
in that regard.
Reports received at the Taft head
quarters indicate that many Demo
cratic farmers purpose TO vote for MT
Taft. State Chairman Barnes, as the
result Of extensive polls he has con-
Quoted and which have not failed 10
prove accurate in the past, is convinced
that Mr.. Taft will carry the Empire
State by from 10000 to 10000 major
ity, a confidence which is shared by all
the Republican leaders. New Iorks
forty-fve votes in the Electoral Col
lege would, Of course, so far toward Sc
curing for the President the 261 votes
which will constitute a majority in
the Electoral College.
Pennsylvania Republicans Confident
Pennsylvania, with its thirty-eight
votes, stands next to New York in
order of Importance, and ii is, of
course, a strong Republican state. This
year, however, the determination OF
Boss" Finn to capture the Republican
name and emblem and to prevent the
placing on the ballot Of Republican
electors who would vote for Mr.. Taft
seriously delayed the opening of the
campaign, took up an inordinate share
of the time of Chairman Hilles and
actually Curtailed the state campaign
10 about three weeks. Even with this
short campaign, however, the state
leaders are confident the Keystone
State will be found in the Republican
column, as usual, and J. Hampton
Moore. who has been conducting the
Taft fight, makes glowing predictions
as to the outcome.
Pennsylvania does not elect Gov
ernor this year, so that the attention
of the people is pretty well concentrat-
ed on the national issues. With large
manufacturing interests and the pros
pect that these would be seriously in
5Ured by Democratic tariff revision, the
leaders appear to have reason for the
faith that is in them that Taft will
carry Pennsylvania.
New Jersey in Doubtful List.
New Jersey, being the home Of Gov
ernor Wilson. might naturally be ex-
pected to give him a handsome major
ity, but this is hardly likely. The Dem
ocratic candidate is not well liked In
his home state, and if he carries it, as
is not improbable, he. will do so by de-
fault rather than by virtue. In other
words, if Mr. Wilson carries New Jer-
sey he will do So because the normal
Republican strength has been Slapped
by the division in that party. The state
gave MIR, Taft a plurality of nearly
eighty-three thousand four years ago.
1t is true that this was overthrown and
that Governor Wilson was elected two
! years ago by a majority of forty-nine
thousand, but the tariff was not then
involved.
! In the estimation of Ex-Governor
} Murphy, New Jersey may safely be
placed in the Taft column, and the
: workers in the state generally are con-
/ fident but party lines are so far bro
ken down this year that 1t is safe only
= to put the state in the doubtful COL
umn.
/ Uncertain About Maine.
OF the New England states the Re-
publican leaders are confident Of all
except Maine. and that they put in the
doubtful column. That Governor Will
son will carry Maine is the belief OF
some astute politicians, although at
! the September election the Republicans,
( who had agreed to ignore the third
/ party for the time being, carried the
I Legislature, so that the election of a
3 Republican Senator is assured.
Massachusetts, for Taft.
OF Massachusetts, there appears to
be little doubt, some of the ablest Dem
ocratic leaders admitting privately that
( Taft is certain Of the states eighteen
votes. President Taft carried the state
| over Mr.. Roosevelt in the preferential
primary last spring. 1t will be remem-
| bered, and there is every indication
that he will carry it over both oppo-
nents this fall.
Vermont and New Hampshire.
Vigorous campaigns have been con-
Quoted In Vermont and New Hamp-
shire, and in the September election
! the Vermont Legislature went Repub-
lican, so that Republican Governor
was elected by a joint ballot of the
Legislature, although he had failed to
secure a majority of the votes cast.
f. w. Estabrooke, national commit
teeman from New Hampshire, has
taken personal charge of the campaign
in that state, which has been conducted
| with the utmost snap and vigor, and
| he asserts that there is not the slight
est doubt that New Hampshire will
! give her four electoral votes to Mr..
Taft.
Connecticut and Rhode Island Tafts.
For a time the prospects looked
somewhat blue from a Republican
viewpoint in Connecticut. This is no
| longer the case. The fight there has