New-York tribune., 1912-01-28

London, January ~.
A foxy politician has electrified his club
friends with the forecast that Mr..
, Churchill will succeed Mr.. Asquith as
Liberal Prime Minister. The prediction
is based on a superficial analogy, ana
| consequently may not carry CONVICTION.
! Mr.. Balfour retired from leadership be-
cause he was jaded and stale, and when
| his followers were evenly ,.,vided be-
tween Mr.. Walter Long and Mr.. Austen
Chamberlain the necessary man was Mr..
Law. Mr. Asquith's withdrawal from
public life may be confidently antici-
pated through WEAKNESS and depression,
and Mr.. Lloyd George and Sir Edward
Grey will each have a strong body OF
! followers for the succession. The selec-
! ton of a third candidate may be as nee
essary on the Liberal side, if danger
GUS conflict is to be avoided, as 1t was
among Unionists when a faction fight
seemed inevitable. Mr.. Churchill will
be in reserve as the opportunist leader,
and may become Prime Minister after a
short and disappointing experience with
Tariff Reform ministry. Such is the
veteran observers forecast. It's fulfil
ment would not be a greater marvel
than Mr.. Laws unexpected accession to
the Opposition leadership Of the Com
mons has been.
Elastic conjectures like these may be
uncOnvincing, and yet there is cumula-
tive evidence of Mr. Churchills progress
i'm public life. At the Admiralty he has
brought in the great reform measure for
which Lord Charles BeresfOrd and the
anti Fisheries have been clamoring for
long period. This is the establish
ment of an advisory war staff, which
will be constantly employed in collecting
information, mastering the science of
sea operations and making arrange
ments for rapid mobilization i'm emer-
gencies The Sea Lords with their ex-
ecutive functions have not had leisure for
systematized campaign work The chief
of staff. with his associates. will now
direct the practical applications of mod
eru naval warfare Generalship will he
vantage of the collective experience and
advice of the war staff. An additional
civil lord is also appointed for the sake
of securing a thorough revision of naval
expenditures, and the cost of the war
staff will be met by the discontinuance
of superfiuous admirals' yachts in home
waters Reforms which are TO render
the navy more efficient and scientific are
not TO cost anything. This will be a
novel experience after the pension, land
revaluation and insurance reforms, with
their hordes of officials and high cost
These administrative changes are pro-
posed at a critical moment in the fort
unes of the Radical government when
there is a public reaction against crude
and costly social reforms. Mr. Churchill,
like Mr.. Burns, accomplshes great re-
suits without special legislation. and
does much to re-establish the reputation
Of the ministry as businesslike, efficient
body. At the same time he is singled
out by the Prime Minister for a political
mission of the first Importance. This Is
the opening Of the Home Rule campaign
in Ulster, with Mr.. Redmond as his asso-
ciate. Sir Edward Carson has been pro-
claiming organized resistance and un-
compromising hostility TO an Irish Par
lament, and counter thrust To Protes-
tant revolt and Unionist agitation is ur-
gently needed. 1t is an audacious politi-
cal adventure, for Mr.. Churchill will
have to explain away his fathers famous
dictum: Ulster will fight, and Ulster
will be right" His cleverness may be
inferred from his preface to Mr.. Mac
Veagh's penny pamphlet on Home Rule,