New-York tribune., 1912-01-01
BUSINESS AND FINANCIAL
CONDITIONS.
By william {. Cornweli, of j. :. Bachc & Co.

The year 1910 had been one OF deciinils
volume Of business and of liquidduoh III
many directions. 1t was hoped In January
l91, that slow recovery would come oul
the outlook was not viewed with any OH
thusiasm, as the Supreme Court decisions
were still ahead. rhe recovery did not ne
gin to come until In the very last mohthH
Of the year, and the period intervening was
marked by the continuation Of the con-
firmed hand-to-mou buying. so depressing
10 anything like new enterprises
The volume Of business for the year. as
indicated by bank clearings. has heen very
large, and. i'm fact, only a fracuohsl per-
cautace e-probably around per ceht-iess
than that for 1910. With the average IN
crease Of population, the percentage shouio'
OF course, also increase, to be normal %
that The decline is greater than the actuai
figures indicate. But, even So the tolai'
run into enormous footings, somewhere
around ono hundred and sixty thousauo
millions, showing the ceaseless acuNl'S'
even in somewhat depressed times oi our
vast population, and indicating that there
las at least been no unusual suHerlns' anu
while manufacturers and principals IN the
business have made little profit, labor mas
been fairly widely employed and at soou
wages Railroad earnings for the year
have also kept near the average of Iast
year. Here, too. profits have been reouceu
by high cost of materials, and especidiE
by high wages, so that In this line the
employed have been fairly prosperous
while the employers-the owners OF ran
road stocks-have as rule not seen lneii
property assets increase.
Nfn ,f1eln was II
ed in the earlier months of the year. passed
through period of some disaster IN the
summer and failed to turn out banner hg-
ures, at least in the grains. Nevertheiess'
the actual value of these last. IL all We're
sold, would show up larger amount tnan
that which would have been realized in the
same way for the crop of the year oetore'
But volume of crop is really what counts
as a large part Of many crops Is kepf on
the farm, where two bushels are better
than one.
The matter, however. has been reversed
in the great cotton harvest of the year
mounting up TO unprecedented hsures'
which have dragged down the fancy prices
of 1910 that made the South rich. and
while working against the cotton farmer
have swung the mill business once more
into line for activity and profit Nine-cent
cotton has opened up and set running the
mill machinery which bad been paralyzed
by the high prices of 1910.
There is one factor in the years progress
about which the most confirmed pessimlst
can find no foundation for his opinions, ana
that is in the course of the nations foreign
trade The first half of 1911 recorded a
most remarkable reaction in the export
situation from that of 1910, in which the
foreign trade balance came dangerously
near turning against US. There mas Deeh
all through the year a big increase IN our
exnort trade, and while our own domesuc
onerations have been tinged with depres-
sion. our business with the outside world
where a vast activity in trade IS going on
has been of the most satisfactory charac-
ter. and the results of the year VIII sho"
splendid excess Of exports over imports
This is one Of the basic arguments Tor
prosperous conditions later on.
Great revivals in business are always pre-
ceded by marked increase in the volume
and activity of steel and iron. This latter
we are undoubtedly having at the moment.
II is induced, as has been said, very largely
nv the low prices and the fact that many
mills are operating with no profit, or even
at a. loss. Nevertheless, the buying Is Tor
the future, and this is complete cnange
from the rule which has prevailed FOR
nearly two years-of buying only from
hand 10 mouth That consumers are stock
ing up, even on bargain prices, is evidence
of a gain of confidence over the period OIL
q month or more ago. when no one woulo
take on any new stock which was not
needed for almost immediate delivery.
This revival in the steel business is per-
hans the one most potent argument for
bcttering conditions in 1872.
The activity in steel and iron has been
seconded by operations in the copper mar
ket, and the price of the metal has ad-
vanced to around 14A cents. at which price
good profits may be realized by all the pro
ducers. Other lines of trade have also
shown healthy increase. and with the coun-
try's stocks down at rock bottom there u
no question that IL the political horizon
we're clear we would enter at once into an
era of great trade prosperity. 1t is useless
TO expect politicians TO appreciate these
facts. as they are always the last to learn
what the country really wants. Neverthe-
less. the laws and operations of trade are
50 powerful that il is not impossible to sup
nose that the impetus now being gained
Will rise to such proportions that even the
Vaccinations of politics and the turmoil Of
a Presidential election will be overridden
bv the increasing strength Of general trade.
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