The log cabin Democrat. [volume] (Conway, Ark.) 1901-1982, 1912-09-05

next yield, prices SCARED still higher,
touching 13t4c for current options
difference of 4'ac 1t is probably
true that neither the lowest price nor
the highest was justifable, but repre-
scented the extreme swing of a move
ment
At the moment prices are neither
so high nor so low by wide margin
as these extremes, values ruling IN
the neighborhood of 10Ac, while
spots are selling about II Ac at lead
ing Southern points. These prices
are the combined result of active de
mand for the outgoing crop and fear
that the incoming one will not supply
all that the world needs. However,
recent events have added so much to
the apparent promise of the latter
that values have tended steadily
downward the loss for the week run
ming to nearly Zee in both options and
spots, the latter showing if anything
a greater depreciation than the for
mer.
BY reason of very favorable Aug
ust the trade now believes $4,000, 900
bales of cotton will likely be produced,
while a few claims as high as 10000
900 bales are made. These latter
figures have no justification in cur
rent facts and will be realized only
under the most extremely favorable
autumn conditions if they are real
lied at all. One basis for 10000
900 bale crop is the assumption that
the governments condition report, to
be issued Tuesday next, will be high
err than last years 1872 per cent.
The average of private ideas as de-
noted by carefully compiled reports
is Is per cent or a fraction lower,
which gives sufficient excess margin
over last years government to ind
cate larger per acre yield. But
this is not valid, although it may be
obvious reasoning, for there was a
in the government S
figures mot the crop of 10 points
last August. 1t was secured as re-
suit of agitation following July re-
port of S9.1, which depressed the mar
ket greatly and indicated a produc-
ton on the large acreage planted
that no one seemed able to accept.
There was heavy loss during the
month owing to the deterioration in
cdent to maturity for last years
crop was an early one. The deterior-
alton having taken place in August,
the percentage throughout September
was practically maintained. 1t is
not possible this year to institute any |
in condition with last |
year, for in the August now ended the
,rop made great growth, being two
u three weeks late. This years de-
will appear in September,
so that it is practically certain that
he percentage at the end of the
growing season on Sept. 25 will be
lower than it was last
year at III.
A little further reasoning will also
serve to show that the claim for a
rop of $4,000, 900 bales is not sub
tantiated by statistics. The acreage
,lanted was estimated at "a 097 900
The ten-year average yield per acre
s 1862 pounds, on which basis a con-
lition figure of 1875 would indicate a
rop of 12,275,000 bales. Last
eason's wonderful crop averaged
.07.7 pounds per acre and assuming
hat the yield this year will be as
much. the crop would reach but Ia
10000 bales Now everyone knows
hat less fertilizer was used than last
ear, that the ground was less thor
'ughly prepared and that the season
lp to date has been much less favora-
lie. This is saying nothing of the
ateness and the frost possibilities.
If, therefore, prices in options have
,een depressed to 10& cents by ex-
,ectations for crop well in excess
# 100000 bales they are evidently
90 low.
GOVERNMENT FXPFRT