The Topeka state journal. [volume] (Topeka, Kansas) 1892-1980, 1912-11-02
His GuesSeS on Primary Win
ners Came True.
SEES DEFEAT FOR STUBS
Sure of His Figures in
Stubs Matter.
Reasonably Sure That Capper
Will Also Lose.

Morton Albaugh, clerk of the United
States district court, long regarded as
the most sagacious, the shrewde5t'
and the most reserved of Kansas poll
ticians, is sure that Roosevelt will not
carry Kansas. He is also sure that
Stubbs will lose the popular vote for
United States senator, and is. more
over, reasonably certain that Arthur
Capper will be beaten in the guberna-
torial race.
II = always hard to interview Mr..
Albaugh on any subject, and it IS
especially hard to induce MIN 70
make public his predictions. His
puessee on what the Kansas voters
will do have been regarded In the past
as gospel Everyone knows MS uh-
canny prediction on the late primary,
so his ideas on next Tuesdays muddled
and mixed election will be OF speclai
interest -.
August wrote a letter to friend
who was absent from the state. oue
interested in the results of the primary.
This letter should go down 70 pos,
terity as a document OF exceptlonai
interest. Mr. Albaugh did not make
mistake by even a fraction-he haz-
arded an opinion correct to the min
ntest detail.
"The primary is being held today"
wrote
Won tomorrow what has happened But
YOU know my mania for guessing, so
I shall make a guess as to the out
come. The Roosevelt electors Will be
named by a vote Of two to one. IN
the state at large the contest be-
tween Curtis and Stubbs will be very
close BY districts, as the law pro-
vides the nomination for senators shall
be made, Stubbs will win. Capper VIII
get three-ffths of the Republican vote,
and Ryan will get two-hfths- on the
Democratic side the contest between
Farrelly and Thompson will be close
but I am very much of the opinion
that Thompson will win the nomina-
ton. Hodges will be nominated for
governor. Remember these are all
guesses. and tomorrow ] shall write
you what really happened.
''The next day." said Mr.. Aibaugh,
"I wrote him exactly the same thing.
I threw five aces. so to speok. and
made the guess Of a thousand years"
Mr.. Albaugh was chairman of the Re-
publican state committee from 1898 to
1904: it would give one much trouble
to find single incorrect guess ne made
at that time.
"Don's deserve much credit. though
he admitted, for we had everything
our own way"
At the first glance the federal clerks
powers of political prophecy seem al
ures, however. which seldom lie. Mr..
AIbaugh studies the press. the people,
the politicians-and has data at his
fingers end.
The friend returned the anti-primary
letter to Mr.. Albaugh; he read II to a
State Journal reporter. who promptly
demanded a guess on the present situ-
alton. Mr.. Albaugh declined to make
any wild speculation on the presidential
issue: doubtless the exact division OF
votes is written IN his mind.
He glanced over his celebrated letter.
fitted his fingers together. leaned back
in his chair and gave voice to the fol-
lowing prophecy:
IT am far more positive that Roose-
Welt will not carry Kansas and that
Stubbs win lose by a decided majority
on the popular vote for United States
senator than 1 was on either of the
guesses made In the letter of August
5. Uuless all political signs rail- Mr..
Capper will also be defeated for COVER
nor"
Mr.. Albaugh insisted that these are
only guesses, the same as the others
were. And that while the others all
turned out to be correct, that these
may all turn out to be wrong.