Atlanta Georgian. [volume] (Atlanta, Ga.) 1912-1939, 1912-09-03


success as a cold blooded political
prophet
He alone predicted the nomination
of Taft and Wilson two years ago.
and told correctly the reasons why
each would in the end be nominated
In the September number of his mage =
zine Colonel Harvey analyses the pres
ent political outlook. and The Geor
gian is enabled by his courtesy 70
print this synopsis of his view in ad
vance
The true appellation of the three
leading candidates, he declares, are:
Taft Conservative; Wilson. Liberal
Roosevelt. Radical He continues:
The contest has already mar
rowed, as in 1924, to the Democrat
against the field. Now, as then he
is practically assured a plurality Of
votes in the electoral college, and
now, as then, his defeat can be ac-
complished only by Withholding
from him an actual majority over
all thus again imposing the cleo
ton OF president upon the house
of representatives..
II the states should vote in the cleo
toral college as they are now repre-
scented politically in the house Of rep
resentatives elected In 1910 the result
would be; Wilson, 29s; Taft, 1871
Roosevelt, S. The editor continues:
Taft's Probable Vote.
Without assuming that the voting
in November win follow closely the
lines indicated, we nevertheless find
In these actual results Of 1910 the
best basis obtainable for intelH-
gent speculation. Certain deduc-
tions, for example. seem fully war
ranted-tc wit:
|. Roosevelt can not be elected.
He may expect with reason to
obtain the Sc votes allotted to him
in the above table. Give to him
from the Taft column: Illinois, 90;
Pennsylvania, So; Wisconsin. 10;
Michigan, 15 Massachusetts,, IS.
and Delaware, "a total, with the
original Sc of 1872 Add from the
Wilson column; Arizona, g. Colo
rado, 6; New York, IS; North Caro-
lima, IL; Oklahoma, 10-total. 76;
grand total 25s, or less than the
requisite number. The widest i'm
agining can not accord Roosevelt
majority.
?. Taft can not win.
Alot to him 1877. as recorded
above, including the doubtful b4
from Illinois, Minnesota and Wis
consin; from the Roosevelt column:
Utah 4 from Wilson Maryland 8;
New York, As; Ohio. "a; West Vir-
ginia, S-total, 256, or 10 less than
a majority. This must be regarded
as the topmost OF Mr.. Taft's posi-
blities
In case Wilson should not obtain a
majority over both Taft and Roosevelt
the house Of representatives would be
called upon to elect a president on the
second Wednesday of February. Each
state would have one vote, and the
result would be; For Wilson, 22 oppo
sition, 81 divided. 4-Maine, Nebraska
New Mexico and Rhode Island. Neces-
sary to choice %. Only Taft, Roose
welt and Wilson could be voted for
obviously neither Roosevelt nor Taft
would have chance. Wilson would
have to win over three non Democratic
states-a virtual impossbiity The
house Of representatives.. therefore
would be unable to elect a president
The editor continues:
Meanwhile the senate, acting un-
der the same provision of the con
stitution, would be engaged in
choosing vice president, since
Marshall necessarily would have
failed to obtain a majority in the
electoral college, in common with
Wilson. Choice would be restricted
to the two persons who had re
ceived the largest number of cleo
toral votes-Marshall surely and
Sherman probably-and the SEN
ators would vote. individually in
stead of by states. as in the house
OF representatives. Forty nine votes
would be required TO elect The
senate is now classified politically
as follows. Republicans, so; Demo
Gratis, a; vacancies, ? The vacan-
cies will be filled presumably by
the legislatures OF Colorado and
Illinois. in January. Apparently
therefore, the Republicans would
have surely one and possibly three
more than the 40 required for the
election Of a vice president. who
would become president on the 4th
OF March. This seems to mean that
in the event of Wilson failing to
obtain 266 electoral votes, Sher-
man would succeed Taft
Senate Might Then Act
But here enters another factor