Evening star., 1912-09-02
Peace or War Depends Upon
England and Germany.
OPINION OF NOTED WRITER
Russia's Effort to Increase Navy Dis
cussed in Berlin.
BULGAR1A-sERv1A ALLIANCE
Negotiations Said to Be Under Rus
sian Patronage-Holland May
Lose dutch" Trade.

Special Cablegram to The Star.
BERLIN. September 2-while every one
realizes that the political future of Eu-
rope depends on whether the present
strained relations and almost unbearable
feeling Of mutual distrust between Ger
many and England come to a climax in
dreadful war or a peaceful agreement.
few writer's have summed up the situa-
ton more clearly than does Macmillan
Harden in the latest issue Of his fort
nightly magazine. Die Zukunft.
What is 1t that this German empire
wants?" he asks. 1.-The certainty Of a
bright future. secure against attacks.
nothing else. Not the destruction of
Britain's imperium. for that would leave
1t alone to face new dangers from Savs.
Latins, Asiatics and Americans, and
would extinguish in its spectrum the
complementary sister color Only the as
surance of equal rights OF unimpeded
growth. This goal must be explained to
countrymen and foreigners. Britannia
has enough to do on land and on sea- and
will not regain her freedom Of movement
until she has settled with Germany. The
latter's friendship secures her possess
| sions, and, since such union Of forces
would be irresistible, the preponderance
VI 0cTUudIliC luSd. SuCn d ITlcnUSNlE mas,
like everything else, its price. A fixed
price, but one that can be afforded. Eng
land has conceded 1T to the yellow mon
gol. Europes future depends upon the
question whether it will be refused to the
European"
Russia's mighty Effort"
The chief of the Russian admiralty
staff. Admiral Prince Lieven, who re-
Paris the negotiations for the Franco
Russian naval convention, which created
such stir in political circles all over
Europe, has come forth with some very
interesting statements in a recent inter-
view. After stating that Russia Is max
ing mighty naval effort in rushing
through the construction of most for
midable fleet Of modern dreadnoughts
and er-dreadnoughts at the rate of
at least four battleships a year for the
next Ave years. he says he does not think
Russian diplomacy will endeavor to gain
an outlet through the Dardanelles for
her Black sea fleet.
What is the good Of paper treaties"
he exclaims. Whatever nation holds
the straits will always act when the oc-
casion arrives according to her own in
terests. and only force can impose upon
her q different line of action. The inter-
est of nations is today the most powerful
factor In their friendships and alliances.
and this. more than any treaty, answers
for the strict and loyal performance Of
agreements. For twenty years the
Franco-Russian alliance. profitable as it
Is to both countries, has weathered every
storm, because 1t is the necessary cOun-
terpoise to the hegemony longed for by
Germany and the triple alliance.
Interest in the Balkans.
The course Of events in the Balkans.
m.
and In the Turco-M -Montenegrin conflict, is
subject of considerable interest to diplo
matte circles here. especially the reports
that negotiations are on foot for the COM
pletion Of an alliance between Servia and
Bulgaria. Bulgaria and Servia intend to
arrange what position they shall assume
toward the other Balkan states in future.
and to agree upon common action. These
negotiations are being carried on, it is re-
ported, under Russian patronage and the
trouble and confusion in Turkey have
certainly advanced them. In Sofia and
Belgrade the question is asked: What will
happen II the present conditions lead to
further consequences?
Interesting information concerning the
present prospects Of peace have been re-
ceived by the Neues Wiener Tageblatt from
special source in Rome. The corre-
Spondent states that wherever the con-
ferences on the subject are held the great
est weight is laid upon the material part
OF the question. as the Turkish govern
ment will make the matter one Of busi-
ness. Italy also shows willingness in this
respect. She wishes. together with peace.
for a restoration Of good relations with
Turkey. The greatest difficulty to be over
come lies in the fact that Turkey. as a
military power and the leading power in
the Mussulman world, places moral and
military questions in the foreground.
Above all some circumlocutory formula
must be found which will place questions
of sovereignty for the moment in the
background. A fear also exists in Con-
stantinople that the conclusion of peace
might cause the natives in Tripoli to rise |
against the Turkish troops. The idea.
therefore. has originated in Turkish
circles Of a truce, to which, however, it is |
almost impossible for Italy to accede. The
view of the latter government is that
Turkey shall recall her regular troops
from the theater Of war. so that the con-
flict would no longer be between Italy and
Turkey, but between the Italians and the |
natives.
Joy to Former Sultan.
OF all the men In the Ottoman empire
the ex-Sultan Abdul Hamid must rejoice
most over the intestine troubles of his
fatherland. Although he is strictly for
hidden to receive any newspapers, and
although not a scrap Of any written
missive ever reaches him, subdued whis-
pers OF events in the world beyond the
walls Of his prison villa strike his ear
and attention from time to time What
is impossible to the old decrepit tyrant is
within the bounds Of possibility to the
glowing eyes of the young beauties who
still surround him.
Abdul Hamid Is informed that dissat-
isfaction and rebellion are rife every
where. and that the cries of 1--WE want
Abdul back are more and more persist
ent. He is told that in the byways of
StambOul secret meetings are held by
reactionaries. and that his friends-once
mighty officials at Yildiz Kiosk, now hun
cry. miserable and destitute wretches-are
agitating in his favor and distributing Sc
ditionary pamphlets among the popula-
tion.
He has also been told that the tickle |
Stamboul population Is tearing down from
the walls of public buildings and coffee |
houses the portraits Of Mahmoud Shefket
Pasha, who q short time ago was extolled
to the skies for his exquisite patriotism.
From the very beginning Abdul Hamid
has been aware Of the circumstance that
the union and progress committee keep
him as last resource, and that he is
scarecrow with which to vanish any in
imical influence that would undermine or
abolish their policy.