The Washington herald., 1912-11-03
dant particularly In Michigan. Ilinois.
lows. Minnesota, and most Of all New

Jersey.
SlEsstsr state Nay neg.
Despite the Roosevelt tumult and
|shoutins. however. the fact remains that
the Democrats to win. not only In ths
doubtful States, but In the supposedly
Roosevelt States have only to vote the
Democratic ticket to the same extent
that they voted Il when Bryan was Q
candidate In 1So9. The Roosevelt strength
Is recruited from the Republican party;
not from the Democratic party.
Only In New Jersey. Of all the States
visited. arc there indications that the
colonel 10 getting votes away from the
Democrats. New Jersey, judging by i'm
pressions gained in the last week. ID
Roosevelt mad. Poll after poll taken In
of New Jerseys voting population. show
Overwhelming sentiment for the colonel.
Getting down to . bedrock analysis:
Tho Roosevelt votes. and there will b
. lot Of them, must come from some
where. An investigation shows that by
far the greater number Of them are COM
ing from the regular Republican party.
That IL true In Illinois. Minnesota,
Iowa. Indiana, Ohio. Missouri. and New
YORK.
Colonel Comes with Rush.
In none Of these States IL Roosevelt
likely to get at the outside more than
20 per cent Of the Taft vote. Likely
Is the right word. OF late the colonel
has been growing prodigiously. In some
Of the States the Taft vote II barely
perceptible. But to beat Wilson. Roose-
welt has got to get around 80 per cent
Of the Republican vote, and few Of the
leaders who are not carried away by
Bull Moose enthusiasm believe this will
Be possible.
Within the last two weeks . situation
has arisen in New Jersey which is caus-
ing the Democrats grave alarm. Two big
leaders, Jim Smith and Jim Nugent. have
been bowled over by Wilson. and both
are suspected Of an intention to divide
their following between Roosevelt and
Taft. throwing the most Of II to the
colonel.
A journey taken late this week before
election to Jersey City. Newark New
Brunswick. Elizabeth. and Trenton
proved convincingly that Roosevelt Is
Wilson's own State. All these towns
are manufacturing centers. and the great
army Of working men employed in them
will give at least half Of their votes to
Roosevelt, whether they be Democrats or
Republicans. This Is the belief Of lead
ers of oil parties.
The ten States covered by the writer
have 81 electoral votes among them.
enough with the sure Wilson votes in
the South to give Wilson the victory.
This is without reference to any far
Western States or to New England.
Ohio for Wilson.
In Ohio most Of the politicians believe
that Taft will be a bad third. and half
of them Concede that Wilson will carry
the State. The Wilson forces have James
Cox. the candidate for Governor. to help
out the ticket. Cox is far stronger than
either Garford. the Bull Moose candi-
date. or Gen. Robert Burns Brown, the
Republican. Walter Brown, the Progress
sivs chairman, Is not claiming the State
for Roosevelt, but he IL sure Of second
place. and the Taft leaders are not very
hopeful Of doing more than beating
Roosevelt. and they will be pleasantly
surprised II they do that.
Indiana has a red hot fight for the
governorship. to which ONCE Albert Jere-
miah Beveridge, once United States
Senator. aspires. Beveridge probably will
lead Roosevelt by twenty or thirty thou
sand votes. The Taft people will vote
for Ralston. the Democrat, to beat him.
and Tor Wilson to beat Roosevelt. for
they are all old-time politicians and they
see their political demise in sight II
Roosevelt and Beveridge are elected.
While Roosevelt Landslide will put In
diana in the colonel's column. the gen.
eral belief is that Wilson will carry the
State.
Illinois. claimed by the Bull Moose by
100000. is doubtful In an unpreJudiced
view. While there is much Roosevelt
sentiment in the mining districts. the
Democrats are holding their own in
where most OF the votes are.
Roosevelt will absorb perhaps so, posi-
bly, 75 per cent. Of the Taft vote, but
that will not give him the State. His
candidate for Governor. Funk, Is weak.
and the attacks the colonel made on
Deneen didn't do him any good. I'd