The Washington herald., 1912-10-06
The Balkan Crisis.

| Everything, according to dispatches
from the disturbed .centers, is ripe fol
the long-expected conhagration in the
near East The armies of the Balkan
states 1.-THE European Philippines) are
preparing for war, and unless cable adj
vices exaggerate, fatal slsirmishes al
ready have been fought between Bull
garians and Turks. At any rate mobili-
zation orders have been given out and
promptly executed.
There still remains but two points in
regard to which diplomats can continue
to maintain optimism. The first of these
is the fact that winter is approaching
and will render active war operations
difficult in the sheer bottomless low
lands to the southeast of the Balkans,
while the second is that the European
powers are working in accord and
have warned the belligerent little states
that, whatever might be the outcome of
war, they would not be allowed to
extend any of their borders 50 as to
take in a portion of Macedonia.
We confess to skepticism as regards
actual hostilities. For more than twenty
years in the spring or fall the war cloud
has rolled up dark and threatening over
the Balkans. Some of the headlines of
to-day referring to the present crisis
are but paraphrases of those which news
editors wrote in the early COS. Ordi-
narily the statesmen of the Balkan ma
tons who are seeking to pare off some
more of Turkeys possessions prefer to
mobilize in the spring, when the roads
are good, rather than in the fall or at
the approach of winter, with its promise
of pass-blocking snow and ice.
Their present departure from their
old-time practice no doubt has been
induced by the difficulty Turkey has in
making peace with Italy. Turkeys diff
culties are always the opportunities
chosen by Balkan statesmen, and there
fore there is hope that pressure with
out, more than a guerrilla war, will an
swer their purpose.
Some of the combatants have quite
large military establishments. Bulgaria
is one of the most military countries in
the world, for, while its population is
less than 100000, it can bring into the
field 23sIooo men, trained after the Ger
man pattern. Servia and Roumania have
considerable armies. Even little Mon
tenegro, instead of blouse-clad. sandal
shod mountaineer tribesmen. has now
actual soldiers, trained by Russian Of
hcers, sent by his near kinsman, the
Gar. Turkey, however, on the other
hand, when its blood is up, becomes one
great camp. When neighboring nations
have looked in one another's eyes mean
ingly for long time. the fighting,
when once it breaks out, is apt to be
fast and furious.
At present there appears to be no
reason why any of the European pow
ers should become involved, although
diplomats of every country recognize
that it would take very little to draw
them in. once the trouble is started.
Austria is being forced to mobilize two
army corps in Bosnia, so as to prevent
the Servians from entering the Sanjak
of Novibazar, a part of old Servia,
which that country is anxious to re-
capture. With Austria thus on the
"qui vive," Russia thinks it neces-
sary to do likewise, as she desires to
prevent a repetition Of the situation,
which occurred during the last crisis,
when she was compelled, under threat
by Germany, to change her Balkan
policy because of her unpreparedness
to protect Poland against the armies
of Germany.
The Turkish Empire proper contains
100000 people. and a military es-
Enlistment that is generally in a state
of preparedness. The Turks (remem-
Der the Janitsaries at Plevna) under
stand the art and practice of war, and
with them patriotism is a part of the
national religion. The allies cannot en-
ter upon the struggle with anything
like the initial efficiency of their Mos
lem enemy, and they would be over
borne by numbers if the Turk should
throw his forces across the frontier be-
fore cold weather sets in.
Greece, isolated, might be recon-
quered, for it is only fifteen years since
the Ottoman proved himself too much
for the little kingdom.