Imperial Valley press., 1912-10-11
RESULT OF A STATEWIDE
STRAW PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

mann ..'r..... .............. ~
The figures given above show the re-
suit to date of straw vote taken in
the state of California by the California
outlook. The vote was taken by the
postcard method. 1t is shown that
ceived.
In all 10000 reply postcards were sent
out, the vote being state wide.
We quote from our letter of instruc-
tions to those to whom the cards were
sent for mailing in the various coun-
ties: I'VE wish to send one card for
each 100 voters or fraction thereof in
each precinct in your county. To illus
trate, if a precinct has but 12 voters
then only one card should be sent into
that precinct, the name of the first
person appearing on the precinct reg
lister being the party to whom the card
should be mailed. IF there are 115
voters two cards should be sent, name
ly, to the first two voters on the reg
lister for that precinct. If there are
more than 200 voters then three cards
should be sent in the same order, and
so following In sending out
these cards no discrimination whatever
should be shown. The idea is to start
from the top of the register in each
precinct, taking the one, two, three or
four names, as the case may be, with
out regard to whether they are regis
tered as Republicans, Democrats, Soci-
alists, Prohibitionists otherwise. In
this way we ought to get an absolutely
fair return and quite an accurate ex-
preston as to just how the people OF
the state feel"
While casual reading of the re-
turns above set forth will show that
Mr.. Roosevelt, upon returns from 1442
voters, has plurality of 442 over Will
son, plurality of 557 over Taft, and a
clear majority over all presidential
candidates of 70, the real significance
comes with consideration of the fig
ures in their relationship to the total
vote of the state. We believe the fore
going statement herein will convince
every reader that the vote was taken
fairly, that it was distributed generally
over the state and that our whole de
sire and purpose has been to secure
an accurate and representative ex-
preston of the popular feeling in con-
nection with the presidential campaign.
| We may now proceed, therefore, to
| a brief comparison and analysis
| Let us first take the Taft vote of 1879,
! representing percentage of 1873 plus.
| of the total vote cast in the straw
| ballot.
1t is figured that the total vote in
| the state this year should reach 700 OOO
Giving Mr.. Taft his full percentage of
the state total vote, he would be en-
titled to $4,000 votes in November
Mr.. Wilson's percentage of the straw
| vote is 21S minus, which in a total vote
! Of 100000 would entitle him TO 152, 600
| MIR Roosevelt's percentage is SPA
| plus. which from a total vote of 700 900
should give him 36S,S00.
| AS matters now stand, as is well
known, Mr.. Taft will not be represent
| ed upon the ballot in November The
| question therefore naturally arises
! What will become of the vote which
ordinarily would 60 to President Taft?
Considering this matter carefully for
| the purpose of arriving at some basis
| of figuring, we have decided to indulge
| this speculation: That one-third of the
| Taft vote will stay at home; that one
| third will go to Mr. Wilson and one
| third to Colonel Roosevelt. According
| ly, we have divided the Taft vote into
three parts, giving 32,2OO to Mr. Will
son and like number to Colonel
| Roosevelt. This gives a Roosevelt to-
tai of $4,000 and a Wilson total Of
| ia 800.
| The Substraction of the Wilson total
| from the Roosevelt total gives Roose-
welt the astounding plurality of 224, 600
The subtraction of one-half of the to-
tai vote cast, from Tie Roosevelt total
gives Roosevelt a clear majority over
| all other candidates of all parties of
| $4,000.
With an indicated Roosevelt pIurali-
| ty of 224, POO as shown, the estimate Of
! the Roosevelt campaign managers that
his plurality in California will be 1OO.-
| 900 is rendered extremely modest and
| conservative.
| We anticipate the easy observation
| upon the part of some Taft and Wilson
| supp that the total of the straw
vote is small, and that it therefore
cannot be taken as showing general
| sentiment. We believe that while the
returns are smaller than they should
/ have been, they are thoroughly repre-
sentative and will be found in Novem-
Der to work out with a high degree Of
accuracy. The California Outlook
heretofore has taken straw votes in
the same manner, and experience has
| always been that the returns are linn
| tied but that the results indicated
thereby are borne out with almost
mathematical precision in the elections
following. This was the case in connec-
ton with the May primary and other
preceding elections in the state. We
have never, thus far, found a straw
vote taken by this paper to give a false
indication of ultimate election results.
1t may be noted that in Los Angeles
county 1000 cards were mailed. The
return for the county to date gives
Roosevelt 223, Wilson 81, Taft 60. Debs
| 81, Chafin IS.