The Hartford herald. [volume] (Hartford, Ky.) 1875-1926, 1912-10-16
A FORECAST OF
THE POLITICAL
Situation Throughout the
Country by
THE CINCINNATI ENQUIRER
Shows Wilson in the Lead
A Conservative Esti-
mate Afforded.
TAFT APPEARS TO BE GAINING


the Herald's and Enquirer's nation
wide canvass of the Presidential
situation, Governor Wilson appears
still to be leading his two rivals.
President Taft has become no.
ticeably stronger, Republicans in
several States who had gone over
to the Bull Moose camp having re-
turned to the Taft fold. Just how
extensive this movement may be-
come, is not indicated.
The Presidents friends are far
more cheerful than they were a
week ago. They say the tide has
turned their way. They declare
the shift back from the Bull Moose
to the President will easily give Mr..
Taft first position in tho race be-
fore election.
They count on the support of
those Republicans who, in many in
stances, had openly announced
that, believing the Presidents cleo
ton impossible, they would cast
their ballots for Governor Wilson
to insure the defeat of the Bull
Moose candidate.
One of the interesting features
of the week is the apparent gains
made by the President in New Eng
land. Reports fyom special cores
pondents there indicate that If the
election were held at this time, he
would be certain of carrying New
Hampshire, about which there was
some doubt, and that he would win
Vermont, which until the last few
days was in the balance.
In the far West also there has
been a swing toward the President.
Latest reports give him Utah and
wyoming. The Mormon Church
has decided to support him. This
is a big asset in several mountain
States.
But even with his apparently in
creased strength, Mr.. Taft still APP
pears cOuSlueTdUly DcHlHuf
Governor Wilson's friends say
their candidate cannot be defeated.
The Bull Moose managers, pri-
vate'y expressing no great hope of
victory for their candidate, say
they have already insured the de-
feat OF the President. In many
parts of the country the third-term-
e. has gained.
Straw votes, aggregating APP
proximately 10000, taken in 29
States, put Governor Wilson in first
place. They indicate he is leading
in popular support in 23 States of
the 90 The Bull Moose nominee
leads in five and the President in
one, Utah.
The same votes put the Bull
Moose in second place in Is States,
Governor Wilson in six, and the
President in five.
Special correspondents largely
bear out these estimates. There
are some discrepancies. In some
instances they are very marked.
But this is always true as between
the Investigations of trained cor
respondents and test ballots. AS
has been explained, the Enquirer
is not confusing the two methods. /
of estimating public sentiment.
Each is expected to stand on its
own bottom. Each is conducted
entirely apart from the other.
A grand total of the test ballots
collected by the Enquirer gives
Governor Wilson 9O,261; the Bull
Moose candidate, 20,74S; the Pres
ident, 1906. and Debs. 1882.
In presenting these figures for
the interest and consideration of
its readers, it is but fair for the
Enquirer to say that in all Presi-
Dental or gubernatorial campaigns
II has been noted that the progress
sives-the enthusiastic and fervent
partisans-always rush forward to
cast their votes. while the conser-
vatives are inclined to be indiffer-
ent. How far this factor figures in
the present contest 1t is. Of course,
impossible to estimate.
In the straw vote from Connec-
ticut the Bull Moose candidate is in
the lead. In the reports from the
special corresnondents who visited
the Nutreg state, 1t is Indicated
that Governor Wilson is we'll in the
lead. They report also that the
President is decidedly stronger than
he was and that he is now second ,
10 Wilson. H IL
States in which President Taft I
n ade gins are Connecticut, New
Ie-ssy. MARYLAND. New York, Penn,s
sylvsria. Minnesota and Michigan.
In many parts OF the Empire State