Daily capital journal. (Salem, Oregon) 1903-1919, 1912-04-03
UP
POLITICAL
SITUATION
WINFIELD JONES ANALYZES THE
POLITICAL SITUATION FOR
THE DEMOCRATS AND SAYS
HARMON is THE LOGICAL CAN.
DIDATE,
(By Winfield Jones.)

bearer the man who will have the
best chance of securing enough bal
lots in the electoral college to en-
sure his election.
If the Democrats can carry Ohio,
Indiana, and New York they will
win. The ballots of these states, ac-
ded to those states that will be safe
ly Democratic, will elect their can
didate. The fight for victory mnst
be made in these states.
There will be 531 votes in the el'c-
toral college, which will select the
president in 1912. The majority re
quired to elect is 266. Students OF
national politics estimate the Demo-
cratic candidate can reasonably de-
pend on having 1877 votes in the cleo
toral college, and in these figures are
included the Southern states, Mis-
souri, and Maryland, both carried by
President Taft in 1908, Arizona and
New Mexico, and Colorado, carried
by Bryan in 1908.
The Democratic presidential can
didate must obtain 79 additional elec.
toral votes to win. New York, Ohio
and Indiana, with total of "a votes,
would bring the Democratic strength
in the electoral college up to 271
votes, or five more than the majority
required to elect These states all
have Democratic administrations.
Suppose on the other hand, the
Democratic party should decide to
make its fight for the west. 1t would
be necessary to carry Wisconsin,
Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, California,
Montana, North Dakota. Oregon and
Wyoming, with a total of 79 votes,
which would bring the Democratic
strength in the electoral college up
to 266 votes-a bare majority.
All of these states, with one ox-
ceptio,n have Republican administra-
tions and 1t would be folly for the
party to attempt to carry all of them.
When one analyses the situation.
the question as to what the Democ-
racy should do to win resolves itself
into two propositions:
Shall the party make fight for the
three eastern States, needed to win,
all of which have Democratic state
administrations, or, shall the party
battle for the ten western states need
ed to record a Democratic victory,
all of which have Republican admin
istrations
Any of the candidates for the Dem
ocratic nomination should carry the
southern states, but should the party
decide to center its efforts toward
securing New York, Ohio and Indiana
then the question of the Availability
of the candidates in those three states
becomes a question of utmost i'm
portance. Ohio, in this event, becomes
one Of the pivotal states, and Gov
ernor Judson Harmon would be the
logical nominee, aside from his other
qualifications, Nobody doubts that
with Harmon the nominee the Dem
ocrats would carry Ohio.
In 1908 while President Taft car
ried Ohio by plurality of $4,000,
Harmon, the candidate for governor,
beat his Republican opponent by 10,
900.
Governor Harmon gave a greater
demonstration Of his vote-getting
qualities in Ohio in the election of
November, 1910, when his vote exceed
ed that of the combined Democratic
congressional vote by 22,S53; while
NO hidJollty VI lVViOi eACebueu lne
combined Democratic congressional
majority by over 10000. Harmon's
vote in 1910 exceeded that of the var
ious Democratic congressional con-
dldates in ID of the 81 districts, and
he carried every congressional dost-
riot in the state except one.
Harmon's majority for governor in
1910 exceeded the average majority
Of his associates an the state ticket by
1924 votes. His vote the same year
exceeded the combined vote of the
several candidates for state Senator
by 1888 and his vote also exceeded
the combined vote OF the several Dem
ocratic candidates for members of the
house of representatives by SO 517.
Governor Harmon's majority lack
ed but 1000 votes of equalllng the
combined majorities Of all the Repub-
lican party in 1855.
Whatever comparison one makes,
Governor Harmon is certainly a won
dertul vote getter
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