New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1912-10-14
FINANCIAL OUTLOOK IS
FOR FURTHER DECLINES
Declarations of War by Bull
garia and'Servia Will Cause
Another Slump in Europe.
AMERICAS OPPORTUNITY
To Buy U. s. Stocks Abroad and
Sell Them Later at Prices
National Prosperity
Justifies.
rBv Gable to The Tribune. !

JuSIlHeS.
rBv Gable to The Tribune.l
London. oct. ia demoralized and
demoraizing week has just come 10 an
end on the European stock markets.
Berlin had her Black Tuesday and her
Black Friday, Paris had her Black FRI
day, which was also very bad day in
London, and London had her Black
Saturday. Vienna and st. Petersburg
were no more fortunate.
London stood up well most OF the
week. but the pressure at last became
too great and the market gave way on
Friday and Saturday almost TO panic.
There was no actual failure, but more
than one house had to be helped.
OF course the Balkan situation was
| responsible, and the action of the mar
kets shows the fear that Europe enter
tains that it will be impossible to To-
Calize the conflict. The slump would
probably not have been so great had
| speculation in Germany, Austria and
| France not been SO widespread. For
the last twelve months every quarter
| day In Berlin has brought with 1t dan
| ger Of failures at the settlement, and
when danger of war is added TO a tre-
mendous OverexpansiOn in speculation
| the result Is naturally wild rush to
| get out from under, in which all prices
| have gone 10 smash.
OverspecuIation in France.
! The war talk has also served TO show
! how France has been honeycombed
! with speculation I'm the last few
months. As soon as the situation In
| the Balkans came to a head thousands
Of small French spectators began to
rush TO cover. The French markets
| went to pieces, and not till then was II
realized how widespread the specula-
| tive movement had become In France.
Vienna and 81. Petersburg might
naturally have been expected To suffer
/ most, as Austria and Russia are the
danger centres for any spread Of the
war 10 the great powers, but the specu-
! lative activity OF Germany and France
| switched the financial trouble to Paris
/ and Berlin. while Vienna and ST. Pc
| tersburg stood up remarkably well.
Under the circumstances 1t is very
unsafe TO attempt to predict the course
Of the markets within the next few
days. For one thing. Bulgaria, Servia
and Greece have not yet become active
participants in the ightIng No one
| doubts that their armies will soon be
in action, nevertheless another slump
! is To be expected when the lighting be
gins. .r.
After that there may be slight re-
coycry. which may be fairly well main
( tained when Europe has settled down
10 watch the conflict. but until II
| is all over and peace on basis salts
factory TO the great powers once more
obtains there will always be a danger
OF a spread Of the fighting. and every
Irumor concerned with the jealousy Of
| Austria and Russia will upset the mar
! kcts 10 a greater or less degree. Thus
a period of anxiety and disturbance
may be anticipated. with no real re-
covery until the war is ended.
America probably Will profit largely
I'm the long run, as she Is now buying
back at low prices the securities which
her evident prosperity VIII enable her
10 sell in Europe once more at much
higher level when fears on this side OF
the ocean are allayed. America will
benefit also by the fact that this rush
10 turn securities into money Will mean
better prices for American products on
the European markets. Altogether,
with its strong business position and
with it's great crops, America stands to
make a huge profit from the Balkan
fare-up.
The position Of the money market is
good for the time of the year, the po
litical situation being as 1t is. The
Rank of England decided on Thursday
10 keen 10 It's discount rate Of 4 per
cent. but It is more than likely to in
crease the figure to 3 per cent this
week. The shipments Of gold to Egypt,
Germany and France reduced the re-
serve TO $780,, 065 900 at the last state
ment and since Wednesday the Bank |
has lost an additional S2,5tO,OO0 to for
eipn account, while the shipments to |
Egvpt. the Continent and Brazil this |
week are expected to be heavy.
With the immediate political outlook |
90 gloomy, the Bank will probably con-
slider II wise to put UP the bars against |
all but the most necessary with
drawals. The proportion Of the re-
serve to liabilities was slightly higher |
for the week at 1854.
The payment OF interest on the public |
debt and the large government dis
bursements for supplies. amounting
altogether to almost S30,000,OOO made
money plentiful in the open market,
and rates ruled at less than per cent
for overnight loans and ~ for weekly
fixtures. Discounts, however, hardened
on the war news, sixty-day bills being
now quoted at 3b, three months paper