The Lambertville record. [volume] (Lambertville, N.J.) 1872-1968, 1912-05-17
Judge, Famed as a Forecas.
ter, Risks Reputation on COL
onePS Easy Victory In
Chicago Convention.
SEES ONLY 400 VOTES
AT MOST FOR Mr. TAFT.
Careful Analysis Of Facts and
Sentiment Leads Famous
JuriSt TO Make Prediction
Of Sweeping Triumph

Ex-Judge Charles II. DUEL, who has
been in many presidential campaigns
and who is chairman of the Roosevelt
committee of New York, made the fol-
lowing statement today:
Having established somewhat of a
reputation for correct political fore
casts, | have thus far refrained from
making any predictions as to the Re
publican nominee for president. 1t Ia
matter of public record that In the
spring of 1896 | predicted the nomina-
tion of Mckinley and In the early
summer gave out statement showing
the number of electoral votes he would
receive and from what states. No
vember proved this to be substantial
ly correct. In 1000 my published pre-
dictfon as to the number of electoral
votes President Mckinley would re-
ceive varied but little from the actual
result. In the spring OF 1904 / pre-
dicted the nomination OF Roosevelt and
stated that he would receive 317 cleo
toral votes against any Democrat who
might be named. He received ala Il
the votes stated, together with the
vote of Missouri and one vote from
Maryland. In 1908 / predicted that
Mr.. Taft would receive 800 electoral
votes. AS Il matter OF fact he receiv-
ed 1923. In every instance l gave my
reasons for my conclusions.
For many months j have carefully
observed the outlook and during the
past two months have carefully gone
over the conditions existing through
out the United States and from time
to time have revised my estimates of
the probable outcome of the Chicago
convention.
Not as an officer of any political
committee, but as an individual, / am
clearly of the opinion and willing to
risk my reputation as forecaBter
upon the prediction that Colonel
Roosevelt will have at the least 600
delegates ON the first ballot In the
Chicago convention. This number IL
irrespective of how the national
committee may decide the contests
that viii come before 1t. should that
committee use steam roller methods
the convention viii have an anti-Taft
vote of at least 600. which will be suf-
ficlent to correct any unfair decisions
of that committee. In my opinion,
Mr.. Taft's friends win not have more
than 400 votes upon any test question.
These reasons lead me to my conclu-
sions:
"First.-A careful review of the pre-
vailing conditions of political thought
and, as | believe, II correct under
standing of the wishes of large ma
jority of the Republican voters, cou-
pied with somewhat intimate knowl.
edge of the real preference OF many OF
the delegates now claimed for Mr.. Taft,
'Second.--Far and above everything
else however, is the wonderful hold
that Theodore Roosevelt has upon the
rank and file of our voters through
their conviction that everything for
which he stands looks to the better
ment of our conditions.
Third The determination of a
large majority of the voters to smash
the party machines, which, almost
without exception, oppose Roosevelt's
nomination.
Fourth, The reaction In favor OF
Roosevelt which results from the bit
ter opposition from the press Demo.
cratic and Republican-in substantially
all of the large cities OF the country.
Fifth. The appropriately of the big
lawyers as political leaders. Wheth.
er Il be Just or otherwise, the average
man doubts the sincerity of the legal
defenders of special privileges and Is
unwilling to trust them as the guard
fans of its rights.
"SiXth.-rhe results of primaries and
conventions in the chain OF states ex-
tending from ocean 10 ocean, including
Maine, Pennsylvania, West Virginia,
Illinois, Nebraska and Oregon. The re-
suit in these states shows that the de-
mand fer Roosevelt's nomination is
not confined TO any locality.
Seventh. The desire OF the average
politician 10 be on the winning side,
These now begin to see that they have
been living In the fools paradise and
that they have Incorrectly read the
signs of the times.
Eighth. The political ingratitude.
almost universal, upon the part of
those whom Colonel Roosevelt In the
past has pitchforked into political
prominence
CHARLES IL. DUELL."