The Birmingham age-herald., 1912-06-09
OM|NOUS RUMbL|NG HEARD IN EUROPE Disturbances Are Emenat-
 ing From Russia AUSTRIAN CIVIL WAR Is Expected as Soon as Emperor Francis Joseph Dies-Magyars
 Cannot Be Crushed Except
 by Force of Arms
nx rRnpERIcI< wERNER

Berlin, June S.-(Spec1al. )-Ihat Europe has passed through the two first months of spring without any catastrophe of any kind in the diplomatic field, must not be taken to mean that the sky is now cloud less, and the horizon clear, on the contra ". ominous rumblings are heard every where, and no one dares prophecy that 1912 will end in peace. During the last few weeks events have happened which have puzzled the diplomats of all the great countries, events which seem to predict the imminency of material changes in the delicate balancing of old Europe Our poor old world, in spite of all its enlight- enment, still possesses it's political sphinx sitl ated in the dark continent of Russia. What Russa's plans really are no one ever knows, least of all, probably, the gentle and peace loving Czar himself Russia gave the first impulse to the new grouping of the powers when under Alex ander III. a strong and vlrile ruler of concluded the alliance with France, which became the unshakeable cornerstone of
 the European position Now at least. it
 seems as If this cornerstone is less firm
 than before. France and Russia are no
 longer in perfect harmony, and Russia
 blamed the French ambassador to St.
 Petersburg for the jarring note of the discord which was dimly heard by those
 whose ears are always pressed against
 the ground. Russia wanted to put an end to the war between Italy and Tur- key, but she wanted something for her. self from the government in Constanti- nople in exchange for her friendly services and she hoped naturally to be backed up by France. Tn this hope she was dis appointed, and the closing of the Dar- denelles, which followed caused the greatest irritation in St. Petersburg be- cause it brought home very forcibly to the Russian statesmen the immense dis and danger of their empire not controlling the outlets from the Black Sea. Now. of course, the Dardenelles are once more open, but many a statesmans head will lie uneasily until the Russian sphinx has spoken and made known it's plans definitely. Meanwhile 1t is admitted that the continuance of the ItaloTurkish war is not free from danger Italy can not think of an advance in TrlpoH until the autumn, and may not be able to do so even then Nor can Italy withdraw with honor. There is an lmpasse which European diplomacy will have to remove But no statesman has yet found a way, and all that M Sazonoff's attempts have so far achieved is the diplomatic sensa- ton in Paris
 The danger which should have been foreseen by Italy from the outset Is based
 upon the obvious facts that during a Eu-
 ropean war, first there is always the op-
 portunity given to each power of advanc- Ing a step towards some unavowed ambi- ton, and secondly, that unless the claim is put forward, or the intention made manifest before the inevitable congress meets and the concert of Europe draws up the terms of peace, another genera tion may have to elapse before the end is achevable.
 But, though the Italo-Turkish war has been the opportunity. it has fin no way been the cause of the present difficulty Indeed, it may be said that in spite of the popular enthusiasm in Italy it Is rather the desire of Italian politicians to with draw with honor from hopeless military stalemate that is responsible for the az grava ton of the danger of the situation. purpose Italy has Intentionally drawn the other powers into the quarrel. It is hardly to be doubted that she has done so with the knowledge and assent of Rus sia.
 The root of the present trouble is the fact that Russia is at present engaged upon two distinct and irreconcilable pol icies Still smarting from her Austrian defeat she saw in the war a changce of drawing Italy away from the triple al- liance. She also saw an opportunity of clearing the Dardenelles for her warships and of confirming to her use certain nec- essary spheres of influence in the north of Asia Minor Now she could only hope to. incur the hostility of Germany by the former policy. She could only achieve the latter by concerted action with her western neighhor With singular wantsof she attempted to do both at once. to the bewilderment of the other powers, and at a serious risk of causing a general European confiagration. France in particular was completely mystifed and a sudden access of suspicion colored the relations between the two countries.
 Germany has almost equally far reach4 ing aims to secure. The time has come she thinks, when her position and right in Asia Minor. Syria and Mesopotamla must be regularized. Early last year she made a nearly successful attempt to come to an arrangement with Russia behind the back of Turkey. These negotiations were betrayed and as an almost necessary from that time to this, the mask of German friendship with the Ot- toman government has been dropped. This time Germany Is determined to car " through her programme with or with out the consent of Turkey and Marsehall Von Rieberstein left Constantinople be- cause Germany intends for the future to use other weapons than those of which Marschall is so great a master.
 In Austria it is now almost absolute certainty that civil war will break out the very moment the aged Emperor Frances Joseph dies, an event which as he himself said when he heard of the death of the King of Denmark. cannot now be many months off Personally Francis Joseph has forgiven and forgotten the unspeak- able indignities hurled at his head in the lower house at Budapest, but his success or Is firmly decided to show the treacher- ous Magyars that they must either keep faith with Austria and contribute her share of the national expenses. or lose their present independence and become mere province.
 That the Magyars cannot be crushed except by force of arms is a foregone con- clusion, but it Is equally certain that they will be speedily defeated, for not even in Hungary are they popular because of their constant tyrannizing of all other na- tionalities within the kingdom and these down trodden people number 100000 out of the 20,000009 people in the kingdom
 The rest of the population of Hungary
 is made up of Slovaks, Crovats. Serbs, Roumanians, or rather Transylvanians, Ruthenians, Germans, etc, and since all the franchise and all the political power are by dint of political gerrymandering monopolized in the hands of certain cor rupt Magyar machines. parliament and ha rolifirnI element Ru1anaSt nn sense of the word represent the people of Hnnrarv as a whole Ear from Ii fnl.