The evening times. [volume] (Grand Forks, N.D.) 1906-1914, 1912-08-27
(~Indiannpolis Star.O

ut 1890 O'Clock next Sunday evening
No man knows. Yet there are poo-
pie who will guarantee that it will or
Will not rain, just as YOU may choos"
and will insure their opinion of the
matter if You are willing 70 pay thl
price for a sum to cover any loss you
might suffer from rain at that time.
The report that IN event in Indian
apolis was recently insured against
rain and the movement, which WI.
not carried through, to have the
clemency of last Memorial day insured
on behalf of the motor speedway
races. as we'll as other similar Incl
dents elsewhere during the last few
years, have attracted much attention,
and always the same misrepresentation
exists as to the basis OF such insur-
ancc
They're willing to take a chance
on anything" is often heard of a
great insurance association of Eng
land in connection with such insur-
ance matters. And just there is the
fallacy. There is no "chance." AT
least in the sense of being a gamble
1t is not a bet any moro than life,
accident or fire insurance is a bet,
ana it Will he readily conceded that
these classes of insurance could hard
~ be regarded as bets"
Hli SucH lHSllThntcS are uaScQ DN
careful mathematicians on the law of
probability. and no such insurance is
usually written save whore accurate
and reliable statistics are available.
For example, take Memorial day.
What is the probability that it will
rain so hard on next Memorial day
as TO prevent h holding Of races at
the speedway? Suppose that the
speedway management finds tina it
l-S1 81 s aH -
aid out in advance of 800, O00-no:
an improbable figure. either--in the
event it should rain. Then suppose it
should go into the market for an in
surance policy to cover his loss.
Would it b" possible for the men UNI
derwritins the risk to know whether
it would rain" Decidedly lot But
would it be possible for them 10 know
how likely it IA that rain would mar
the day" Most assuredly yes.
Weather is comparatively easy to
insure. for the reason that accurate
and official weather records can be
consulted.
Take the point in question as an
example. suppose now that the rec
ords show that for the last fifty wears
IT has rained twenty-five ont of the
fifty Memorial days. Then the chanc-
es are fifty TO TWENTY-FIVE that the
N'N II " lh vi i''lt anu lIlt EIoDd-
bility of rain is forty-four per cent.
If the figures stand so and $780,.
600 of insurance is desired. then the
proper charge for the insurance would
be based upon the relationship he
tween fifty n twenty-five, adding
in the cost of making an investiga-
ton n a proper profit for the in
surance. Thus. without adding ex-
pense or profit. the actual cost" or
riclT ,f sIa iyp,, 49,, n ,.,,,J l.. .,.x.
ty-two fiftieths Of 500. 600. or $40
600. Suppose it cost $500 to send
here to examine the weather records
and get all the information available,
and suppose that a profit of ten per
cent We're added, The charge for
the insurance would then he $4,000.
Will the sun rise on schedule time
tomorrow morning" Tho chance that
it will not is so infinitely small as not
to admit of speculation.
Will there be a heavy snow at Mex
ic" City at noon tomorrow: The
hanre hat there. Will be is SO small
that it annot be computed.
There are w eXtrtmes-the prac-
tically certain and the almost inpos-
siblc.
Between the two are innumerable
possibilities and risks" that could be
insured.
Just what are a mans chances of
riding from here to New York city
in the steel Pullman without being
killed?
Without being injured?
Without getting sick?
What chance is there that YOU will
be struck by lightning and killed next
week?
What is the probability that you
will lose your sight?
How likely arc YOU to be killed in
a burning building?
All these and the thousands of
other questions entering into the prob
abilities of n continuance of a certain
human life or a certain humans
health are not possible of solution in
the case Of any particular individual.
Of course, and Yet they are quantities
known to a practical certainty. and
this is particularly true as pertaining
to human life. Bearing upon ques-
tons pertaining to human life are
existing for so many years