Arizona republican., 1912-01-04
BANKERS GIVE
 TRADE REVIEW
Expert Discussion of Busi- ness and Industrial Con ditionS with Reference to the Country's Financial Affairs.

New York bankers
 The passing of the wave of Christ
 mas activity leaves some quiet in it's
 wake. inducing widely extended tendency to weigh carefully the out
 book for the coming year in business, as well as furnishing opportunity Tor the consideration of general results Ir 1911. The year 1910 had been one of declining volume of business and O. liquidation in many directions. IL Vas hoped in January, I9Il. that slow recovery would come. but the outlook Was not viewed with any enthusiasm, as the Supreme Court decisions were still ahead The recovery did not begin to come until in the very last months oi the year. and the period ii tcrVening was marked by the con tinuation of the confirmed hand-to- mouth buying. so depressing Co any thing like new enterprises The de- CiSiOnS Of the Supreme Court rem Gered in May were looked upon as a step in the direction of clearing uv the trust situation. and at that time the prospects for large crop Were bright Both these hopes were some
 
 orc time a crop failure was looked for by the most pcssimistic. and the Governments attitude on the Shcr- man law cast cloud oyer the fu- tur" of large industries in America All this culminatod in the institu- jion of the suit against the Steel trust. and in the latter part of September the low point of the year was reach ed. not only in prices of stocks. bu, in the general depressed feeling Tho tuning point came when Mir Roosc- velJs outlook" article. scoring the administration for its indiscriminatc action under the Sherman act. pro Guc"d the impression that halt had come ir needless prosecution and that in the conflict between leaders reasonable course of procedure would ensUe r. was at this time that the expansion Of activity in iron and steel logan. due in part to the drastic cut iE prices all around, but also evil GencinG return of some degree or confidence generated hy the impres- sion above noted.
 The volume of business for the year. as indicated by bank clearings. has been very large and. in fact. only fractional percentage. probably ! around two per cent. smaller than | that for 1910 With the average in- | crease of population the percentage | should. of course. also increase tn b,. ! normal, SD that the decline is greater | than the actual figures indicate But | even so, the totals run into enor- ! nous footings. somewhere around ! S160. GOO. GOO. showing the ceaSeless ac- i t!vity even in somewhat depressed ! times Of our vast population, and in ] d;cating that there has at least been 1 no unusua! suffering and. while man | ufacturers and principles in the bus- ness have made little profit. labor l has been fairly widely employed a; i good wages. Railroad earnings for l the wear have also kept near the av- i craze Of last year. Here. too. pro | fits have been reduced by high cost | of materials. and especially by high | wages. so that in this line the em- pioyed have been fairly prosperous i while the employers-the owners of ! railroad stOcks-have as rule not i seen their property assets increase
 The crops. of which so much was | expected in the earlier months Of the | year. passed through q period of some | disaster in the summer and failed tb | turn out banner figures. al least in | the grains. Nevertheless. the actua! | value of these last, if all were sold, | would show up a larger amount than | that which would have been realized | ir the same way for the crop Of the |
 
 really what counts. as large part Of | many crops is kept on the farm. | where two bushels are better than | enc
 The matter however. has been re- l Versed in the great cotton harvest of | the year, mounting up to unprecedent- | cd figures. which have dragged down | the fancy prices of 1910. that made | the south rich, and while working | against the cotton farmer. have swung | the mill business once more into line | for activity and profit. Nine-cent | cotton has opened up and set running | the mill machinery which had been i TaralyZed by the high prices Of 1910 |
 There is ore factor in thc years | Trogress about which the most con- l-'f'-atias'N ton for his opinions. and that is in | the course of the nations foreign | trade. The first half Of 1911 recorded | most remarkable reaction in the eX- | port situation from that of 1910. in | which the foreign trade balance came | dangerously near turning against us | There has been all through the year a | big increase in our export trade. and I while our own domestic operations | have been tinged with depression. our | business with the outside world, where | . vast activity in trade is going on. I has been of the most satisfactory l character and the results of the year | will show a splendid excess of ex- | ports over imports. This is one of | the basic arguments for prosperous l conditions later on.
 Great reyivals in business are aI- ! ways preceded by marked increase in | the volume and activity Of steel anG | iron. This latter we are undoubtedly | having at the moment It is induced. | as has been said. very largely by the | low prices and the fact that many | mills are operating with no profit. or even at a loss. Nevertheless. the buy- l