The watchman and southron. [volume] (Sumter, S.C.) 1881-1930, 1912-01-06
REIEW OF 1911 COTTON MARKET
Famine Ended-OutlOk for Supply
and Demand in 1912.
(By Theodore H. Price.)

chiefly as it may be a guide tor the
future. The year 1911 has marked
the end of cotton famine, and an
era Spf comparatively high PRIZES
and the year 1912 seems likely to
find the world supplied with sufi-
cient cotton to meet it's require
ments for the balance Of the so-called
cotton year. which ends August 80.
1912.
1t is probable. in fact that this
years crop is large enough to sup
ply the demand up to October 81.
1912, or two months after the time
at which next years crop shall be
available. This Is all that can be
expected from the widely advertised
surplus Of this years cotton pro-
duction, and when the fact is stated
in this way there would seem to be
but little justification for any expec-
tation Of lower prices.
In no other important industry that
know Of Is a surplus the equivalent
Of two months consumption after
two years Of famine regarded as
sufficient justification for panic prices
and sales below the cost of produc-
ton.
The Southern producers of cotton
seem to have come to this conclusion
largely as a result OF the Convention
If the Governors Of the cotton States
held in New Orleans in October, and
the thanks of the entire Southern
community, both business men and
farmers are due to the Fort Worth
Record and it's editor, Mr.. Clarence
Ousley. for their enterprise in calling
and organizing this Convention at the
opportune moment. It's presentation
OF the facts Of supply and consump-
ton no doubt prevented a panicky
decline in the market, and resulted
in deliberate and forehanded treat
ment Of the situation that has en-
abled the Southern cotton producer
to obtain at least cost for that por-
tion Of this years cotton crop which
has already been sold.
1t has at the same time induced
anticipatory buying on the part Of
consumers. which, in some cases,
covers their prospective requirements
for three and four years ahead. The
weight Of whatever surplus is attrib-
uted to this years American cotton
production has thus been distributed
over a long period Of time, and the
prospect now seems to be that with
reasonable reduction in acreage
next year, and an average production,
cotton will again rule somewhere be-
tween IL and IL cents a pound.
The supply Of iron, copper and coal
IN America Is practically inexhausti-
BILE, but the producers Of these COM
modities are enabled to reap a fair
profit upon the enterprise and capital
employed in their production through
legitimate control Of the supply.
The year 1912 promises to mark a
new era In the cotton trade, iistin-
guished chiefly by the application of
the same sane principles to cotton
production. 1t used to be assumed
that the South could produce nothing
but cotton; that it had to produce
cotton to live, and that 1t had to sell
1t when produced at whatever price
was obtainable, whether this price
showed a profit or a loss. and that
then 1t was compelled to go on and
produce aonther crop to be sold at
possible loss and so ad infinitum,
but times have changed.
The great economical marvel of
the present century Is the great ex-
pansion in the worlds demand for
cotton goods. The demand is now so
great that surplus OF a million bales
Is far smaller in its relation to the
total requirements than was the case
fifteen years ago. Moreover, the
South is richer and better educated in
the principles of economic law. 1t
has learned how to do other things
than grow cotton, and its agricultural
versatility enables it from year to
year so to change the objective Of it's
enterprise that when cotton ceases to
be profitable another crop will be
grown.
For these reasons, and because 1t is
easily demonstrable, that it costs a t
least cents a pound to produce mid
ding cotton, and just as much to
produce low grade middling cotton,
that only sells for cents a pound
when middling cotton sells for 9
cents pound. I think it entirely
reasonable to assume the Drobo b;I -