Evening star., 1912-11-09
The Stay-at-Home Vote.

As The Star pointed out the other day,
the returns of the election of Tuesday will
be subjected To more critical and keen
analysis than the voting figures of any
election in recent years. Already enough
has been reported from the count to war
rant certain significant deductions. While
the figures available are not official and
are in some cases only approximate and
furthermore while they do not include
the total votes of the three minor candi-
dates. Debs, Reimer and Chain, they are
nevertheless sufficient to indicate that the
successful candidate of the democracy
was not the choice of a majority of
the people. that had there been COM
bination of republican strength against
him he would have been overwhelmingly
defeated. I finally that there was un-
quesuonably a remarkable increase in
the already heavy "stay-at-home" vote.
1t was estimated by the census office
before the election that as a result of the
natural increase in the population. the ad
mission of two new states and the extern
sion of the suffrage in California and
Utah to women the total votes would be
approximately 16. 600 as against total
in 1908 of 14,SsS,i AZ. In the absence of
the minor party figures it is impossible
Vet to determine the actual total of the
vote cast Tuesday, but ii is plain now
that II did not equal the census office
estimate by a large margin. Wilson's
vote on the basis of the present approXi-
mate figures. was 6,lS9, ,S93. Roosevelt's s
vote was 4.O51, ,631 and Taft's vote was g.,
J74.671 Thus Wilson's plurality on this ba-
sis was 2, 13s. 262 over Roosevelt, but COM
hination of Roosevelt and Taft votes
over Wilson. The most striking phase of
this is that Wilson's vote was on the
present reckoning 219.o1l less than the
total Bryan vote of 1908, although two
more states voted this year than four
years ago, these two giving Wilson a
total of approximately 1880 votes. while
the combined Taft and Roosevelt votes
fell 2.GO5 votes short of the Taft vote of
1905. Thus in the case of the three major
parties this year there was deficiency
Of 2I1,S1I votes, as compared with the
Taft-Bryan votes of 1905. Where did these
votes go? They may have gone to Debs,
or to Chain. or to Reimer. Probably some
of them went 10 Debs. but no conceivable
detection from a major to the minor
parties would account for the loss in vot-
iEg strength that is apparent on the face
of the returns in their present state.
In 1908 the minor parties consisted of
the socialists, prohibitionists. social LABOR
ties, populists and independents. The
total of the votes cast for the five cam
didates of these parties Debs, Chafin, Gil
haus, Watson and Hisgen, WIS SuJ,33o. 1t
has already been estimated tnat there
was an increase of aboIt $1,000 votes in
the Debs strength, and granting other
increases to Chafin and Reimer this year
which are not likely 10 be in the same
proportion as the socialist incrsase-it is
fair to assume that the t0ta. of the minor
party vote will not be more thar .hD,tU.
and this is probably widely liberal esti-
mate. This would give total vote cast
by all parties this year OF approximately
1895, 100, or about l.l20.VU less than the
estimate Of the census office.
AT the outset of the campaign it was
asserted by some of the political leaders
that there would be an unprecedented
outpouring of the people TO vote on the
vital issues presented, a great popular up
rising bringing from their retirement the
several million potential voters who for
one reason or another, do not exercise
the franchise. The census estimate of
l6.4i5,0Oo votes made allowances. on the
basis of previous elections, for those who
are thus self-disfranchised well as
those who for various causes have been
deprived of the right to vote Thus, with
approximately 22.0J.0Oo potential voters
in the United States barring perhaps
$4,000 for legal disabilities in case OF
such a popular uprising as some fore
cast, Tuesdays vote might easily have
run as high as 2D,UuoU0. Instead OF
which II is not much, If any. more than
15,2JO.OU. with the addition of from a
million 10 a million and half to the
stay-at-home vote of other years. Truly
instead of being a great outpolring OF the
people, this election has shown a por-
tentous lack Of interest in matters poIiti.
cal on the part of a large and increasn.
part of the voters