The log cabin Democrat., 1912-09-03
COTTON
Will GO HIGHER
CROP Is OYEREST!MATFD
MEMPHIS PAPERS COTTON EX-
PERT REVIEWS PAST AND
PRESENT YEARS YIELDS.

Ihat the present price of cotton is
too low in view of the conditions and
that the crop of 1912 is being gener-
ally overestimated is the opinion of
j. Il. Turner the cotton expert of the
Memphis Commercial Appeal. Mr..
Turner presents an interesting re,
view of cotton conditions for the past
season ending August 81 and a con-
servative study of the prospects for
the present season. His article, in
part, is as follows:
At the close of the cotton wear the
trade is both retrospective and pro
phetic. 1t looks backward in order
that experience may guide to a prop
tr Interpretation of the present and
shed some light upon the hazy future.
Fhe season past was a most remark
able one. 1t produced the biggest
crop grown in America by more than
100000 bales, and witnessed the
most marked revival in the spinning
industry ever known in short time.
MIR. Hester places the commercial
crop at l6,l3s, 900 bales, yet the sup
ply carried over in the visible is
scarcely 800 900 bales greater than
that of the previous year, when the
crop was l2,l20,0 900 bales There
may have been added to reserves / :
O00,0O0 bales, but even so, it is quite
evident that the consumption of cot
ton ran far ahead of anything on rec
ord. But, although the dead year
may not be eclipsed in many to come
IN the matter of production or CON
sumption, the new one holds wonder
full possibilities and it is to the study
of these that the best talent is now
turned
, 1t is interesting for its suggestive
value to note that while prices by rea-
son of the weight of marketing the
big crop last year broke to sac, that
under the stimulus of demand they
rallied to 1l&c, and that still later,
when weather unfavorable to another
growth indicated shortage in the
next yield, prices scared still higher,
touching l3Ac for current options
a difference of 4l2c. 1t is probably
true that neither the lowest price nor
the highest was justifabe, but repre-
sented the extreme swing of move
ment.
+ At the moment prices are neither
so high nor so low by wide margin
t as these extremes, values ruling in
the neighborhood of 10Ac, while
f spots are selling about II Ac at lead
: ing Southern points. These prices
: are the combined result of active de-
: mand for the outgoing crop and fear
that the incoming one will not supply
: all that the world needs. However
{ recent events have added so much to
; the apparent promise of the latter
+ that values have tended steadily
e downward the loss for the week run.
d ming to nearly i2c in both options ano
; spots, the latter showing if anything
: greater depreciation than the for.
e mer.
: BY reason of very favorable Aug
= ust the trade now believes $4,000, ,00C
bales of cotton will likely be produced
e while few claims as high as l5O00,-
600 bales are made. These latter
figures have no justification in cur
D., rent facts and will be realized only
under the most extremely favorable
autumn conditions if they are real
: lied at all. One basis for a l5,00O.-
600 bale crop is the assumption that
the government condition report, to
be issued Tuesday next, will be high
, er than last years 1872 per cent.
The average of private ideas as de-
! noted by carefully compiled reports
, is 70 per cent or fraction lower
which gives sufficient excess margin
over last years government to indi-
cate a larger per acre yield. But
this is not valid, although it may be
obvious reasoning, for there was
deterioration in the governments
figures mot the CROP of 16 points
last August. 1t was secured as a re-
suit of agitation following a July re-
port of S9.l, which depressed the mar
ket greatly and indicated a produc-
tion on the large acreage planted
that no one seemed able to accept.
There was heavy loss during the
month owing TO the deterioration in
cident to maturity, for last years
crop was an early one The deterior-
alton having taken place in August,