Burlington weekly free press. [volume] (Burlington, Vt.) 1866-1928, 1912-08-01

Analysing these figures. DR.. johnson
says that only la per cent. OF the traffic
passed from one coast of the United
States TO the other by Cape Horn. the
Isthmus of Panama, or the Isthmus of
Tehuantcpec, and that the trade of this
country with foreign countries accounted
for 90 per cent. of the total. Commerce
between Europe and the west coast OF
South America supplied So per cent. of
the traffic. which might have used the
canal, and the trade of Great Britain
alone with the west coast of South AmeH-
ca. would have supplied one-sixth OF the
total traffic through the canal in 1910
AS the canal will not be open until 1875
It is necessary to increase these figures
by the growth in trade that is to be an
tcpated Dr. Johnson arrives at the con-
clusion that in 1915. ships with total
net register of 1n,50O.Oo tons should pass
through the canal.
In estimating the amount Of traffic,
which will use the new waterway, DR.
Johnson says there are two important
factors outside of actual distance from
the Isthmus of Panama to be considered
One OF these Is the tolls to he charged
and the other the cost of coal on the
Panama route as compared with other
routes. Then he divides the traffic which
IS for geographical reasons likely to use
the canal from that which has for the
same reasons a choice between the straits
of Ma gelan, the Cope of Good Hope. the
Suez canal, and the Panama canal. He
says:
THE Panama route will have a monop-
oily of traffic of Hawaii and of the west
coast of North and South America. with
the exception Of a small part of the trade
Of southern Chill. but It so happens that
the marginal traffic for which the Pana-
ma canal must compete with other routes
is of exceptionally large tonnage and
value. comprising the major share Of the
commerce of Pacific Asia and OF Austria
liza The ships engaged In the trade or
which the Panama route has monopoly
will comprise the larger share OF the
canals tonnage, but the marginal traffic
| ia n prize 50 well worth competing for
| that IL should he given careful considera-
| ton in fixing the tolls to be charged at
| Panama The volume Of traffic and the
! commercial usefulness of the canal, as
woll as the revenue obtained from Its OPP
eration, are dependent upon the transit
dues"
A toll of 81 a ton, the writer said. would
nrohably be sufficient to divert the COM
merce between Europe and the central
districts of Chilli to the Strait of Magel-
Ian. were II not that vessels engaged in
that trade would want the coast trade Of
South America on their way. Moreover
the Panama route would offer opportuni-
ties TO buy coal so much more cheaply on
the Isthmus or In the West indies than on
the east coast of South America that the
difference in the price OF fuel would
probably be equal to a half. or even more
than half. OF the canal tolls.
The canal, under any tolls the United
states is likely To impose, will proba bly,
ohtatn the trade between the Atlantic
coast Of the United States and Australia
and New Zealand. but for the European
trade with Australia, DIR. Johnson be-
ueyes that the Panama canal will have
strong competition from the Suea canal
for fast steamships, and the Cape OF
Good Hope for ordinary freight vessels
still If the Panama tolls are kept lower
than those OF the Suez canal some OF this
trade should be captured he thinks, OF
the trade with the Far West. DR. john
son has this to say:
The panama and Suez routes will be ac-
tive rivals in the rich traffic field east and
north Of Singapore. The line connecting
noints equally distant from New York by
way of the opposing canal routes runs
through Hongkong and Manila. To the
north and east Of those cities the distance