Daily Kennebec journal. [microfilm reel] (Augusta, Me.) 1870-1975, 1912-08-20

From every indication with the admins
tration in its present confusion this year
can hardly prove an exception.
The probabilities are thus eomprehen.
sively set forth in the Independent.
Reporter published in this town:
With the meeting of Sea Girt coun-
sellers comes the oft-repeated rumol
that Maine-rocked-r Republican
Maine.-is regarded as politically in the
list of doubtful states Similar ru.
mors, set afioat with peculiar timeliness
We're not unknown in the prediction
days of other campaigns. Take, for i
stance, the presidential election of 1854
Then, as now, rumers were Astounding
that "at last Maine was going over to
Parker" because Maine was going over
to the State Democracy.
Now Maine-Republican Mainei-is the
home of Blaine Dingley Frye, Reed
Hale. and Burleigh. a eoterie of men OF
more than national prominence in their
day, and men who were. and two of
whom, nowsliving, are able to shape with
well-nigh mathematical accuracy the
political destiny of six hundred odd
thousand of people. Furthermore, be ii
said at the States behest that she never
failed in her support of prospective
nations head, provided always, that
that prospective head stood squarely and
unequivocally for the Republicanims OF
the fathers. Thus Maine-Repuhlcan
Maine!-boasts of consistent record
But. pointedly speaking, how does 1t
happen that with astute political leaders
still living within the State, capable of
engineering any kind of a campaign, ane
willing also to do ii; and with record
of ever clean-sweeping victories over
the ancient foe-how does it happen that
in the year 1912 persistent rumors of the
doubtful issue in September and Novem-
Der should throw many of the old-time
adherents into paroxysms of fear? Are
there really any solid grounds for doubt?
Are the political conditions of 1912 81
vastly different from those of 1908 and
1910?
Are the two elections, in so far as
their results are concerned, necessarily
inter-dependent?
Let us answer the last question this
week.
The fact that 1912 is a presidential year
is the one reason why the September and
November elections will be decisive vic
tories for the Republican party.
Let us study few figures.
Last Seven Elections.
The figures below are for the last seven
State elections and the last seven presi-
Dental elections and account is taker
only of the votes cast for the Republican
and Democratic nominees.
Average total vote for Governor,
presidential year .................. l2s,oOo
Average total vote for Governor.
OH years OBSERVATION-DISCLOSURES. nZ,Uuu
Or difference of 1900 votes.
Average plurality for Governor,
presidential year ................,. 900
Average plurality for Governor.
OH Years ...e......-.-....-..-... l9,Io
Or difference of 1900 votes.
Again,
Average vote for President, - 1900
Average vote for Governor, presi-
Or a difference Of 1900 votes.
Average plurality for President =. 2s.00t
Average plurality for Governor,
presidential year .................. 3,0Jt
Or difference of 5000 votes.
Still again, in the election of 1908, fo
instance, the Republican vote for Cover
nor was approximately 1900; that fol
President, 66,O00 showing loss In vote:
for something like 6000 In this sam,
year, the Democratic vote for Governor
was $1,000; that for President. $4,000; o.
a loss in votes of 10000 In 1904 the Re
publican loss was 1900; the Democrats
loss, 22.001 To make the figures instruc
tive, we contrast, precisely as above
the last seven years, as follows:
Average loss of Republican votes,
National over State elections, -. 500
Average loss of Democratic votes,
National over State elections 1890
What, chiefly. do the figures thel
show?
First, that a presidential year work
greatly to the advantage of the Repub
liean party in Maine. The party the
casts an average of 1900 more votes TO
Governor than in the off years, with a
average plurality for the Republica
candidate larger by some 1000 votes.
Second, that in the November election
the Democrats show far less interest
than in the September elections; AM
that, contrasting the record of the tw
parties, the Republican loss is less tina
one-half that of the Democratic loss
To put the case strikingly: In 1905
&C. 27s Democrats voted for their candi
date for Governor; two months later
S0S75 of these failed to appear at tn
polls to support their presidential nomi
nee The Republicans, in that year. cas-
66,9S7 votes for William Howard Taft.
The pertinent question follows: Cal
the Sea Girt counselors who are settin
on foot rumors that Maine is in the Ills
of doubtful states,'' honestly promis
Governor Wilson that in the forthcomin
presidential election they can produce
10000 more Democrats in Maine who viii
vote for him than they, or their prede
cessors, We're able to produce for vii
liam Jennings Bryan in 1908?