The Laurens advertiser. (Laurens, S.C.) 1885-1973, 1912-09-18
THE OUTLOOK FOR COTTON.
Demand Of I4,59o,OOO Bales With Crop
Of Not Over 14,OOO.0O0.
. From the New York SUM-


Deit' the prospective requirements of
consumption are more clearly out
lined than is usual so early in the
season. OF course, there are claims
by both bulls and bears, with the
former predicting a record consump-
tioh and the latter material falling
OH owing to the increase in the size of
the crops Of other countries. Last
season the consumption of American
cotton was l4,5O00O0 bales. This was
record There is reason, however.
to believe that practically as murb
VIII be used during the coming sea-
son notwithstanding the fact that In
dia and Egypt both have larger crops
than last year.
The average man interested in the
price of American cotton, however. Is
not concerned so much over what the
mills actually consume as much as he
is regarding the amount that will be
taken by manufacturers. AS a matter
or fact the vollme Of exports to other
countries and the amount of cotton
needed by American spinners offers a
much more simple method of figuring
out an idea Of values than any anaIy-
sis of prospects for actual consump
ton. The cotton market advanced
from early in the year not so much be-
cause the consumption by European
mills was heavy as because of the
enormous amount that wa shipped out
OF this country, thus removing the
cotton for the time being as a factor
in the American supply situation. Ex-
ports to Europe, China, Japan, India
and other countries last year amount
ed to 1O,5O6,465 bales, against 1902
III the year before. The previous rec
ord for exports established several
years ago, was about $3.50 900 bales.
Exports were heavy last season for
variety Of reasons-the contribut-
ing causes being the size of the Amer
lean crop and its relatively low price
combined with the shortage in the crop
of india.
Obviously, 1t is not expected that
exports this season will come any
where near last years total of 1O,5O6,-
600 bales. 1t is by no means certain,
however, that the volume of outgoing
cotton will not be heavy enough to
cause severe drain on this years
production. Last season. which end
ed August 81, Great Britain took A.
243,000 bales, France 1,19S,OOO and the
Continent 5,064,000. Included in the
Continental exports, however, were
shipments of 10000 bales to Mexico,
$4,000 bales to Japan and SO 900 bales
to India. Further exports to India out
of Liverpool and Continental ship
ments amounted to about 1OO,O 900 bales
additional.
An attempt to figure out export re-
quirements for the coming season
brings forth some interesting results
Great Britain, on account of the splen-
did trade in Lancashire, probably
needs about 4,3000,000 bales. 1t is hard
to see how France can get along with
as little as 100000, or practically
100000 less than last year; the Con-
tinent proper took about 1884 900
bales, and the minimum calculation
probably would be 3,800,OO0; China,
Japan and India all told took about
100000 and the most generous reduc-
tion could hardly place the needs of
these countries out Of the present crop
at less than 100000 bales. This most
| conservative calculation makes a to-
tai of 9,2300,000 bales, with the esti-
mate based on cotton costing no more
than I'd, Liverpool or 13 cents in New
York. Naturally If the price goes
higher the export requirements will
decrease, but 8,75O,000 bales looks like
an extremely low figure for even a
minimum calculation, unless prices go
to an unexpected height.
Coming to the question of American
consumption last season, 1t might be
stated that while American mills took
| about 5,500,000 bales. the actual con
sumption, as figured by Secretary Hes
ter, was placed at 5,225 900 bales of
American cotton.
A larger consumption is expected
during the coming season for the rea
! son that a good many weak spot in
| textile situation in this country have
been eliminated, and 1t is altogether
question of the supply Of labor as to
the amount American mills will CON
sumo, provided they can get cotton at
reasonable prices, say anywhere under