New-York tribune., 1911-12-03
ASQUTH MINISTRY
HEADED FOR DEFEAT
Government Loses Ground Stead
lily and Is Likely to Go Down
in Course of Next Year.
TRUCE IN R. R. CONFLICT
Lord Curzon May Add to Cab,
inet's Difficulties by Raising
the Persian Question in
the House of Lords.

BY cable 10 The Tribunel
London. Dec 2.-The Chancellor Of the
Exchequer is carrying his social reforms
without Strengthening his grip upor
British democracy or increasing his pop
ularity and authority. While the insur'
ance bill is the crudest measure ever
submitted Il Parliament and there mas
been no deliberate revision Of its com
rlex provisions, Unionists have accepted
in advance the principle Of the threefoio
contribution as the basis Of SOUND ma
tional system and cannot consistently
vote against the third reading. Posi-
bly, they Will follow Mr.. Law second
time out Of the House as an emphatic
method Of protesting against the eXces'
sive use Of the closure. This Will be a
safer course than the proposal Of rea-
soned amendment directed against the
obnoxious features Of the measure.
Notwithstanding the unpopularity OF
the servant tax. the continued resist
enoe Of doctors and the opposition OF
trade unions 10 the establishment of
separate systems for four sections Of the
United Kingdom. II Is evident that the
bin cannot he blocked in the Commons
The question thus arises. What will
the Lords do with it? Influential mem
hers have been asserting that they will
carry It to a second reading as proof
that they accept the general principles
Of the measure and then hang 1t up In
committee on tho ground that it.reaches
them too late for systematic revision and
careful scrutiny If the Lords take this
ssgacious course they will vindicate
their reputation as a cautious revising
body. responsible 80 the nation for the
enactment of we'll digested measures.
Unionist Tacticians Busy.
Tacticians among them are now sug-
gesting an alternative plan-namely,
passing the insurance bill without
amendment and leaving the government
wholly responsible for il. They assume
that the law will be more unpopular in
the course Of next year than IT is now.
and that the Unionists will find it USE
ful 10 refer TO it as the first fruit IF
single chamber government. They as
sert that the suspension or rejection of
the measure will enable the Radicals 70
renew the agitation against the Lords
rs an unprogressive body out of touch
with British democracy, whereas its en-
actment will cause widespread dissatis-
faction with the government for intro
ducing unscientifc reforms before a be-
wildered country is ready for them.
Whether the leaders Of the Opposition
decide on the one course or the other. il
is evident that the government is stead
fly losing. ground and is likely to SO
down i'm the course Of the next year.
Winston Churchill has become the
mystery man Of the Cabinet. Nobody
processes to understand the Admiralty
changes and one whirling rumor fol
lows another respecting Englaud's fut-
ure naval policy. While the Fisher in
fuence is not as strong as it was and
the nucleus of war staff which Lord
Charles Bercsford has been advocating
with persistent energy has been formed
II is doubtful whether there will he any
revival Of the naval feuds.
Prince Louis Of Battenberg will be
the strongest individual force at the
Admiralty. lie has not been a partisan
in the recent faction warfare, but ha,
done his work as an organizer OF brill
liant ability and has commanded the
confidence Of the navy and Of the coun-
try at large. Important changes may
be impending in naval construction and
In education, but an opportunist policy
Is probable, and the personnel Of the
feet is likely to. receive special atten-
ton from the peculiarly level headed
board in which there is no masterfu
martinez.
Lord Charles Beresford both charge.
that the country was not ready for wal
with Germany and insists that tall
about two keels for one must be stopped
This advice is timely when forecasts o.
large increase in the German navy are
coming from Berlin.
The necessity for statesmanlike action
however, does not prevent The Daily
Mail" from beating the drum will
frantic energy in a fast call upon III,
Lords to reject the naval prize bill. which
IS bound MP with the Declaration o
London. The self-governing colonies a
tho conference this summer expressed
their approval Of the Declaration afte
a prolonged debate. and the Lords vii
be unfaithful servants Of the empire 4
they run counter TO the advice Of tn
colonies.
Radical disaffection has not been al
layed by Sir Edward Greys brllian
speech in the Commons. There is en-
bittered criticism Of entente diplomac.
I'm relation TO the Italian invasion o
Tripoli, and especially the Russian ad
vance upon Persia. Lord Curzon i
likely to raise the Persian question il
the Lords, and possibly the Radical
may succeed in moving an adjournmen
in the Commons and increase the en-
barrassments Of the Foreign Office
While Mr. Shuster may not have mad
iactCm appointments in Northern Per