The Durham recorder. [volume] (Durham, N.C.) 1879-19??, 1911-01-27
VIEWS OF THE BUSINESS OUT.
LOOK.


plus reserve is now above $4,000, 900
or in excess of what 1t was Of the
same date OF 1908 when business re-
cession after the panic was In full
Roadway. IT is, moreover, the largest
surplus reserve held by the clearing
house institutions at this date since
1897. The deposit liabilities Of all the
New York banks and trust companies
are now 227S millions of dollars
against 1926 millions year ago; while
against this smaller credit account the
banks hold $4s6.00o.OOo in cash
against s47s.O00.OO year ago. This
of course reflects a great strengthen
ing OF the bank position.
At this time in 1908 the New York
surplus reserve stood at sS7.So0.o00 or
50. O000 900 less, than the present actual
surplus. II went on rising in that
your until June. when q maximum Of
sss, 900 900 was reached The New
York banks Are now nearly two-thirds
OF the way up TO that figure. Is their
cash surplus to continue on up now
as theng In other words is business
recession to spread and deepen for
four months more as In early 1905?
Possibly. But the two situations are
not wholly alike. The financial and
Industrial world was thoroughly un-
nerved in early 1908 by the great pa
mic OF the last quarter OF 1907. and ex-
perience II not reason showed that af-
ter such a financial conyulsion there
would be large contraction and iiqui-
aation in business. We have now had
another speculative liquidation, but
one OF much less violence and exteni
than that Of 1907. and accordingly the
following business reaction or liquida-
ton should be less extensive.
At all events. the notion quite wide
ly held Of late that the country was In
for a smashing liquidation and heavy
fall OF prices and wages. such even as
Il did not have In 1908. but ought to
have had--as they say;-this notion
now finds little voice. Instead We have
as the mos depressing view OF the
outlook that which sees continue
ton for at least six months and pos
sibly for two years Of such a con-
traction or enterprise and moderate
business volume as now prevails. This
Is reported by the New York Evening
Post
Two fnancsers OF very high stand
lng-one a banker and one a railway
executiye-gave their views privately.
q few days since. regarding the BUSH
ness outlook. The one predicted an
uncertain and possibly unsettled sit
uation until midsummer. when she
harvest prospect would bring into play
new fundamental influences The 9TH
er prophesied diminished trade. ac-
tiyify and decreased earnings. with
some resultant cuts In dividends; The
slowing-down process possibly TO end
with 1911. but possibly TO last over
another year-end. Both men wers
asked how shey harmonired such eS.
pectations with the cheerful attituds
OF the stock exchange, and both an
svered that the stock marke, had dis
counted all such things In advance. a
Il always does.
Il Is doubtless the railroad man Wit
takes the more depressed view. bu
even he Is disposed TO believe tn
stock market has already discounte,
the worst that Is 70 happen, and tina
worst Is plainly not the general bust
ness liquidation which Is to land IN
whole country on a decidedly lowe
level Of prices and wages
Bur with foot-loose capital IN muc
better supply, az 4 IL, and with N
chances better apparently than 70
, several years past Of enlIsiIng n
service Of foreign capital in che Tn
/, led States, developments may com
much sooner than generally expec'
I'd TO improve speculative sentimer
and turn q downward business tea
!. dency INTO an upward one. The $50
900, 900 New York bond issue IL
come out this week. and II will ey
! IDENTIFY BE- largely oversubscribed. !
: AZ seems probable. there h Lara
forlgn participation, Il win have
!. cheering effect n then toIerab
decisions come from ne Unk'
states supreme court and the Int
state commerce commission respec
I. ing the legal position Of large corp
!. ratlons and the matter Of rsilroi
ra,ss-and these are fairly TO be .
pected-speculative sentiment shou
brighten up materially and busine