The farmer and mechanic. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 18??-19??, 1911-10-24
WHAT SHALL COTTON
DO?

cotton rOWfn states Is MI. ~
Ousley. the gifted editor of the Fort
Worth Record. The empire State OF
Texas grows more cotton tina any
other State n Il is fitting tnat the
initiative of this movement shoulo
come from that State. Every
full citizen of the whole South is deep
Iy interested in the serious question
presented by the slump in cotton,
and will be glad to learn the views OF
Editor Ousley, who writes as follows:
Who Knows the Cotton Demand.
lou morning contemporary at
Dallas, discussing the cotton price
situation and the pending conference
of cotton states governors, falls into
a line Of reasoning that is not al
together sound because it assumes
that the cotton supply is greater than
the demand.
That assumption may be correct,
but who knows and can affirm upon
reliable information that it is cor
rect? What warrant is there for
reckoning the present crop as great
er than the worlds normal
ton?
Nobody knows how much cotton
the world needs today and Will con-
sumo in the next twelve months. That
is the first point to which the cotton
states governors should address them
selves.
The cotton trading and cotton
spinning world has known with rea-
sonable accuracy from the very plant
ing of the crop what it promised
from week to week and month to
month, and now il knows approx
mately the final Yield. A diligent
Federal bureau, With thousands Of
trained observers, has reported every
step of the cotton plants growth.
from the seeding to the marketing,
every rain, every attack Of worms or
weevils, every hot wind or cool night,
day by day and almost hour by hour.
Receints at primary markets and re-
ceipts at ports are ~chronicled daily.
monthly with comparative l2bles Of
preceding years. Every month an
estimate has been issued upon the
basis Of condition and normal wealth
er.
n product in the world is the OBJ
ject of such p~aternalistic observation.
For whose benefit?
we do not object to government
crop reporting. On the contrary, our
opinion is hat it is better to have
accurate crop reports by the gov
eminent than to have delusive or ex-
private interests. But all this is done
primarily for the cotton trade, while
no information is furnished concern
ing the cotton trade for the benefit
Of the cotton grower.
Assuming that the present crop is
13,S00,00 bales, as the government
estimates, how do We know hat this
volume will supply the worlds needs?
w may not reasonably hope that
bankers will finance a holding move
ment until we can demonstrate that
conCJ1r ntinn Will no CI1tici0nt fn ~
nance prices above the present level.
Well Informed persons, reckoning
upon experience. believe that the
normal consumption of cotton now is
upward Of IA, 900, 900 bales. If that
is correct, then, there is a shortage
in cotton and before another. crop
can be grown the demand will cause
a substantial advance in prices and
the holding of even a million bales
would make spinners clamor for the
staple in q few months.
If we could demonstrate such a
condition to money lenders they
would not hesitate to advance money
on cotton almost or quite to the limit
Of present prices. But we cannot
make such a demonstration without
detailed reports from the cotton spin
ming centers. from the cotton consum-
ing nations and from the cotton trade
in all its relations and bearings.
"The condition Of the cotton trade
Is as easily aScertalned as the con-
dition Of the cotton crop, though it
must be ascertained in a different
way. The Federal bureau which
furnishes cotton crop news should
furnish, also, cotton trade news, but
if the Federal bureau will not do it
the cotton states can do it in con-
cert through a joint bureau Of cot
ton trade information.
"A careful estimate Of cotton trade
prospects issued before planting time
would be notice to cotton growers
what to expect, and they would gov
ern their planting accordingly.
Since the present cotton crop was
picked the price OF the staple has
declined about 4 cents a pound or
$40 a bale. Then the world ex-
pected about 12,500,O 900 bales; now it
sees approximately 13:S00,00O bales.
It was willing to pay Is cents a pound
or $S12,500, 900 for a crop Of 12.5O0,-