New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1911-08-03
The NEUTRALITY-SUSPICIOUS.
IRON Tho Tribune BuresuI

rt,p Washington. August 2
roLlTlCAL HOROSCOPE. - The
po"hcai prognosticators assert that the
VI iSrt popularity which Is sweeping
N''".ry VIII have assumed such pro-
= ~ VV,,s oy the fall OF 1912 as to make a
victory merely question OF tho
vi 'he majority. Mr.. Tafts political
''e's nave no fear whatever OF the con-
HUen0es OF his vetoing the popgun tariff
n' PASSED by this Congress In fact. they
oeheNe nc Will be materially strengthened
thereby. Political consequences do no,
enter at all into Mr.. Tafts calculations
ne VIII veto these bills. or such as may
reach him. because he be,,eves I, - ho ~,
cu'y' In the first place he is a protec-
'' ana no one or these bills Is pro-
'ecton measure In the second place. he
appreciates perfectly that these measures
nave been framed solely for political effect
ana without regard to the needs of the in
ous'rles affected. And finally. he is con-
Vinced that tariff revision Ia a serious on
GRAFTON which should not be repeated with
unnecessary frequency. lie regards II as
tolly TO pass tariff revision bill based on
wholly inadequate information. when only
rev months hence definite information on
"mch 10 base such bill will be available
information which would probably poin,
'he necessity Of promptly revising any bill
"mch might be passed now. In the case Of
the House wool bill. for instance. the con
sumner might BIZ benefited by the reduction
IN prices II would probab bly, effect, provided
II did not work such serious injury to the
INDUSTRY "a to offset any other benefits
"hlch might accrue. In the case Of the
compromise measure which seems likely 10
issue from the conference committee how
ever, the reductions would not he sufficient
materially to benefit the consumer al
though they would lniure the producer
"hlle II would probably be necessary TO
SUBJECT the latter class 10 another period Of
unrest and disturbance when. next Decem-
Der. the report Of the tariff board was re-
ceived
FOOLISH MAXTMS.-The facility with
which political maxims are invented Sc
equslled only by the frequency with which
they arc found 10 be- in considered and
without historical basis For instance II
Is common remark Of the political ws,,-
acres that no party has carried . Fresi-
Dental election after losing the House at
the previous mid-term election. From that
impression has been coined the maxim, AS
goes the House SO goes the following Frs
idential election" This assertion Is not
true. To determine just how many times
II has been disproved might require mu"li
effort. but even in the memory Of men new
living IT has been three times disproved.
For instance, in 1886, the Democrats car
ried the House. and at the following Preoi-
oil m Iarr ri nd
a Republican House We're elected. In 1878
the Democrats carried the House Two
years afterward James a. Garfield was
elected President and the republicans
gained majority of the House in 1874. the
mid-term election of Grants second term.
the Democrats carried the House % the aith
Congress. but at the following Presidential
election. I'm 1875. Mr.. Hayes was elected
President. These instances are all foucd
during the life of the Republican party.
Possibly an examination OF earlier history
would reveal still others. The cases citeo'
however. are sufficient 10 show how .ttle
importance can be attached 10 the asscr-
lions Of those possibly supersttious per
sons who assume that because the Demo
Gratis carried the House at the last election
a Democratic victory in 1912 IS foreg"ne
conclusion. There is nothing easier to n
vent than a ringing political MAXIM pHt
TO invent one which will stand IN test OF
comparison with history is another matter
VETO ON MONDAY.-The Senate leaders
expect the Presidents veto Of the wool Dill
70 reach Congress on Monday. AS the veto
Of any one Of the popgun tariff bills WILL
according TO Representative underwood
relieve the Democrats Of all necessity Tor
making further efforts TO pass tarih lef'F-
lation at this session. a fulflment OF ms
write a long veto message, and ne is -
pected. as has been said, to return tne oil"
10 Congress with his disapproval on Moh-