The Washington herald., 1911-12-10
TRIPOLITAN WAR TO RESULT
IN A SHIFTING OF ALLIANCES
Germany Now Specu!ates on Future of Turk
:. ish Influence in the New Euro
pean Concert

Berlin, Dec s.-The Berlin press is dis
cussIng the possibility Of a change in the
balance of power arising out Of the war
In Tripoli.
In a recent editorial the Kreuzzeitung
says:
Every alliance between two states i'm
plies a certain equality of forces, inter-
ests. and responsibilities. Such equality
between Turkey and any of the western
world powers cannot be spoken OF. The
latter, in view of the manifold ana
sharp frictions Of the Ottoman states
with all the imaginable open and dls-
guised political aims of nelghoorlng
powers, and in view Of the complicated
international problems arising from the
motley racial composition of Turkey ana
her patronage over all believers in the
Koran, would undertake obligations the
burden OF which would be altogether out
of relation to any possible benent from
the connection, unless, indeed. the porte
were to give its partner very speclai
geographical or economic advantages, as
Said Pasha expressed himself.
Turkey and England.
These, Il is argued, Turkey is not
likely to offer to Great Britain in return
for the right to retain a shadowy suzer-
ainty over two provinces of as little
value as TrIpoli and Cyrenaica. There
fore, the Ottoman empire will reconcile
itself to the loss, but the effect Will be
the creation of extensive friction-sur-
faces between Italy on the one hand and
France and England on the other, ow-
ing to the change in territorial distriou-
ton in the Mediterranean.
Moreover. the consulta will have TO
ha
two rivals on the sea, which she will
hardly seek elsewhere than in Germany
and Austria Hungary. Consequently, In
stead OF loosening the ties of the Triplce,
the war will rather strengthen the alli-
ance and bind its members all the closer
together.
'Italy's two partners will find it neces-
sary to increase their armaments, and
for Germany, the much-discussed armored
cruised problem will become a burning
one. As for Turkey. II Is quite con-
ceivabe that her enemies of to-day will
hold out their hands 10 one another. The
role of reconciling mediator would ma
turaIly fall to Germany, and from that
would result the possibility OF satis-
factory solution of a problem so i'm
portant for the entire Oriental policy,
namely. that of establishing in the Medi-
terranean a position of international
equipoise in place Of the present one
sided preronderance of the entente
powers"
II is not believed here that success
will attend the efforts of the powers to
secure the localization of the Turko-
Italian war to the African coastline or
hinterland. The object of war is TO force
upon the loser a peace advantageous TO
the victor. But II Italy were confined to
IN ig alral6V
ing millions of francs a day, Turkey,
spending nothing there, is in position
to refuse the terms of peace demanded
| for an indefinite period, during which the
| existence of an open sore would threaten
J the peace of mind of all European ma
tiOns England with them. On the other
hand, the moment the war ceases TO be
| localized, that is, the moment Italy en-
deavors to force peace. upon Turkey by
attacking more vital points of the Otto
man empire than Tripoli, the fatal East
! ern question is raised again, and the
world. as crystaIIized after the Ma
| poleonic unheavel by the 1915 series OF
! treaties, is once more in a state of solu-
ton. Under such conditions anything
might happen
Russia Watching Frontier.
In Russia the press is urging on the
| government the view that Turkey is
seeking compensation for the loss of
TripolI in the disputed territory on the
Turko- Persian frontiers about Lake Ur-
mia. Russian agents have recently been
over the ground. and in concert have
carefully Investigated Turkish proceedings
there In official circles no apprehen-
sion. whatever, is felt as to Turkish in
tentions in that region at present, be-
cause the number of Turkish troops
sent there from time to time is small. In
any case Russia will never allow Turkey
to establish herself on Persian terri
! tory. for the simple reason that the posi-
tiOn outfanks all the defenses of Russia s
| southern frontier. And Russian opposi-
| tIon to the Turkish attempt at aggran-
dizement is fully supported by England.
Although the Belgian press has been
| displaying great caution in its comments
on the Franco-German settlement regard
| ing Morocco, I am in a position to state
| that the clauses of the arrangement re-
Iating to the Congo and Ubanghi are
causing great disquiet in the Belgian Of
| fetal world.
| Belgian statesmen are fully convinced
| that the Kaiser's government has cast
| longing eyes on the Belgian colony, Of
which Germany has become the close
neighbor by the agreement with France.
The latter's refusal to assent to any
change in the status of the Congo. with
| out consultation of all the powers who
| signed the Berlin treaty, concerning the
Congo basin, is not considered IN the
| least reassuring 1t simply transfers
| to the European concert the question as
to whether France is to be allowed at any
time to part with her ribht of pre-emption
over the Belgian Congo, and according
| to the views held here, such a question
| should not even be raised, as the fight
| was only granted to France personally,
| in exchange for equivalent advantages,
and as a favor untransferable to any
third power. Indeed, the late King Leo
pold II only conceded such a privilege
to France because he especially trusted
| in her good faith, and was convinced
! that she would not attempt to exercise
1t unduly and force Belgium, by violence
or threat, into the sale Of its colony.
BeIEium's stand In Congo.
The matter stands quite differently with
Germany, whose designs are suspected.
and. who. it is feared. II she were to
\ become heir presumptive'' to the Bel
gian colony, would soon conduct events
in such a manner as to gain possession
of the heirloom by compelling Belgium
to give up her African property.
These imisgivings have been REINFORCED
by Gerinany's Sstrenuous and successful
efforts TO gain access to the Belgian
Congo and Ubanghi