The Washington times., 1911-01-01
CAUSES THAT MADE 1910 "A BLUE YEAR
AND WHY 1911 OUGHT TO BE BETTER
Capital Scared by Attitude of Administrations
Kept Down Necessities and Below Danger PontMaia Prosperity
Crops-Wealh Accumuaes-Trust Cases ALI Important.
ny JOHN GRANT DATER,
Special Financial Representative Munsey

but men generally were discussing the
| problem of trade reaction, due chiefly,
II is believed. to two considerations: the
unsatisfactory condition of the iron and
steel trade, a barometric industry, and
| to the remarks OF James ]. Hill, presi-
dent of the Great Northern railway,
| predicting a serious want of employ
ment and much suffering for labor dur
| ing the year, as a result of harassing
legislation and the unwillingness Of cor
poration managers to proceed with new
undertakings or extensive Improvement
| and development work, until some of
the impending problems are solved.
or course, one cannot write the COM
mercial and financial history of 1gl1 in
advance The final outcome is inde-
| seyerably wrapped up, with the results
| OF the harvests, seven to ten months
hence, but while admitting that fact.
| there are very many things in the pres
ent situation. and very many tendencies
that assist in forming conclusions as to
the first half Of the year.
Lessened Activity Likely.
1t seems mot unlikely. in view OF the
great number of national problems
| awaiting solution, involving railway and
| ludt luC year
will be marked by somewhat lessened
commercial activity. This may be some
what accumulated by the fact that the
loans Of Western banks are still widely
expanded, that political changes are i'm
pending. and tariff agitation Is in the
air, that the price Of many commodities
is still high. and that high wages and
the attitude Of labor is giving concern
to many corporation managers. and that
the two combined diminish manufac-
turers' profits.
But the force of reaction will be modi-
fied to some degree by the abundant
haryests of the past season, which have
added 50, ,0n0, 10000 to the country's treas
ure heap, and by the fact, which Is gen
orally overlooked, that the high prices
of labor and commodities. and the de-
veIopments which have affected both the
railway and Industrial corporations,
have rendered the merchant and the
manufacturer nonspeculatiVe in articles
of manufacture. and, in consequence,
stocks of merchandise are reduced. In
other words, contraction in many lines
has always taken place, and the neces-
stiles Of eS,o0o0o0 persons place these in
dustries in a position where they are
likely to maintain the present output.
or, possibly. increase 1t.
Sustaining Factors.
For instance, one can scarcely look at
the iron and steel industry and consider
that the production of the leading cor
poration Is but so per cent of capacity
without realizing that it must be scrap
ing bottom already, and that production
Is likely to improve on moderate buying
by the railways, as soon as the freight
rate situation is cleared up. With the
textile industry the case Is somewhat
similar. Due to the inability of the
manufacturers to raise the prices of
finished goods, despite the high price of
staple cotton, production has been cur
tailed, and surplus stocks are reduced
to minimum. Much the same con-
dition is reported in boots and shoes, |
and in leather, and about the only i'm |
portant industry which now shows a |
serious ovarproduction is copper metal |
II the United States. were growing
poorer instead of richer with each sue
ceeding year one would fear that the |
force of reaction at a time Of disturbed !
confidence might be long continued and |
severe, but the contrary Is the case.
The country is growing richer and at !
the present time the increase in wealth |
and population should act as a great |
sustaining element, minimizing any COM