The Richmond Virginian. (Richmond, Va.) 1910-1920, 1911-09-11
ELECTION FORECASTS.

reliable news In pursuance OF this policy the
recent forecast Of the senatorial primary was
made The remarkably accuracy Of this pre-
dicton demonstrates that it Was prepared with
great care and with the determined purpose Of
furnishing the public vita real facts
Forecasts Of elections are always delicate Of
ten doubtful. and not intreQuently dangerous
things to handle The task must be approached
with caution. in the spirit OF fair play. and
only when the underlying motive is 10 gather
complete and authentic information and 10 pre-
sent the same accurately and fairly. The fore
cast published in IT, Tieo,n,on on Monday be
fore the primary fulfilled these conditions IN
every particular In the days between the pub
fishing Of our forecast and tho primary
cited efforts were made TO the impress
sion thai The ylfgtntam was Influenced by I'LL
terror motives in the collection and publication
Of It's forecast and thus to discredit work
designed for the real emil ehtenment Of the peo-
pie Of the State,
The Roanoke World, in such attempt. as
serted that this paper at heart Martin
sympathzer" and queer proposition with
many aspects" 1t especially Mortified that
when our Roanoke correspondent gave an
innate % 800 majority for Martin and 100 for
Swanson. should have discarded this and
given. as nearer the probable result. zoo for
Martin aud 500 for Swanson The World fur.
Their expressed surprise at our estimate Of the
majorities Of MARTIN and swanson about
3o000a in the State Perhaps the most sat
isfactory answer TO the excited suggestion OF
our Roanoke contemporary, that If all the esti-
mates La The state secured like those IN
Roanoke they aren't worth the paper they are
printed on is found iii the returns telegraphed
TO The Frgiajon by tts Roanoke correspondent
which gave Martin 92f majority and swanson
ss4 and BY the further fact that the most accu-
rate calculation based upon the returns from
the State at large indicates majority for
Martin Of about $1,000, and for Swanson Of 49,
600
In a statement given out by Mr.. C. B. Garnett,
campaign manager of the Virginia Democratic
League. on Tuesday Of last week the second
day after our forecast was published he made
this assertion.
Those who are familiar with the methods by
which forecasts are made have long since come
to distrust them In proportion 10 ms eefta'ntS
machine estimates recently purportIng to be
prepared by oficehclders for two machine pa
pcrs but which really gotten up at ma
chine headquarters and given out iof poii"c~s
purposes. really sign OF the weakness OF
ihe machine. That old political dodge when
v.sasa@ss aaoaN .f4s5tTstaDds and Which lHHAentts
no one but the unwafy IL TOO apparent on the
face Of the estimates given 10 need any com
me ut from me The agures are go absurd and
preposterous 10 have created amusement
in the minds Of all we'll Informed people, and
transparent was the trick that web informed
politicians have begun to entertain lurking
suspicion that either the machine had lost its
cunning it Is attempting 10 bolster up
bad case by putting on bold face
To notice one uf the aXtraYagant claims made
by the machlne-thty claim that senator Mar
TINS vote TINS year Will exceed the total vote
secured by Senator Martin and Governor Mon
tague the primary of SIN years ago. Again,
the machine claims that the city OF Richmond
viii give it's candidates twelve hundred ma
iorlty. and this, too In spite or the frost
which Governor swanson met at the Acad-
envy when more than one-thIrd OF the seats
vacant. and also in spite OF the fact that
Senator Martin : appearance on the Acad-
envy stage did not bring together larger crowd
al this time in the eampaign than those that
greeted MI Jones and Mr.. Glass In the very
beginning The machine has got another
think coming to il" when they assume that
they VIII secure a majority Of the vote of the
ely Of Richmond.
Mr.. Garnett made very active and aggres-
sive campaign manager Botn his energy and
his enthusiasm are 10 be commended but max
ing poitlcaI representations and expressing
opinions OF value regarding those made by 9th
isn't his forte We will not embarrass him
by quoting the details Of his statement and CON
trasting ii W.T. forecast aud the actual vote
cast What concerns is his charge that the
estimate printed Ia The Ytrgtnqn--thougb he
does not call the name OF the paper-was
really gotten up at machine headquarters and
given out for political purposes" This decla
ration as absolutely untrue as his forecast
was worthless. The Eu9inians forecast was
not gotten up the machine headquarters and
!, was not given out for political purposes
knowing from years of close observation that
men are SO swayed By their political affiliations
as to render their judgment uncertain, because
biased, we set about obtaining our information
in a careful. practical and thorough manner.
letter with return postcard was sent to every.
member of the State Democratic Committee TO
the chairman Of every county, and TO at least
two other men of known responsibility in each
county. Those to whom these letters were
sent were cautioned TO De careful and impartial
than that their names would be withheld Re
v plies received from perhaps 50 per cent OF
Y ~ couatiss and several Of the cities On Friday