Yorkville enquirer. [volume] (Yorkville, S.C.) 1855-2006, 1911-09-15
BIAS IN COTTON CROP REPORTS.
Effects of Government Reports on
Conditions.

Conditions.
1t is unfortunate that reports on the
cotton crop conditions should command
so little confidence. Practically 1t Is i'm
possible to obtain information, wheth
er by private effort or official means,
that is entirely free from bias, and that
Is due to the fact that planters and
dealers are frequently so anxious to
sustain the price at the opening Of the
marketing season for the new crop
that 1t creates an unfavorable atmos-
phere for obtaining accurate informa-
tion. There is no doubt that there
was a good deal Of deterioration during
the month Of August, but that 1t was so
great as Is generally represented, es-
pecially by the government report, Is
hardly credible. No force of cores
pondents, however disinterested and
impartial and however competent, can
make a complete examination in all
sections and judge for themselves.
They must rely largely upon local
statements, and they find 1t difficult to
allow sufficient for bias and to escape
it's effect upon their own minds. Those
who have to compile and sift the re-
ports for the different states, whether
ernment statement, have a very diff
cult task to determine the trustworth-
mess of conflicting returns and dis
count the effect Of a bias which Is more
or less obvious.
1t is quite natural that the planters
and dealers in the south should be anx-
ious to avoid any overstatement Of the
crop and a consequent depression OF
price as the marketing season opens,
lest they should be the losers, and they
are suspicious of the spectators at the
different exchanges who may have
equally strong interest in low prices.
Manufacturers naturally desire to buy
as cheaply as they can, but spectators
and traders on the exchanges are SELL
ers as well as buyers, and they sell
mainly for future delivery to distribute
the marketing through months to come,
and they seek every available means
of gauging the supply as well as the
demand as accurately as possible, in or
der to judge of the normal prices, which
must be determined by the relation of
those factors as the marketing pro-
ceeds. Judgments will vary and there
are bulls" as we'll as bears on the
exchanges, striving to profit by the va
riations Of prices, and their conflicting
efforts go far to establish the price
level and to minimize fluctuations.
without them there would be greater
fluctuations, taking the season through,
and both producers and consumers
would suffer for the profit Of unorgan-
lied or differently organized middle
men.
It is a radical mistake for planters
and dealers, or associations OF them, to
attempt to fix a price in advance and
to sustain it by Withholding the supply
from the market and storing 1t In local
warehouses. 1t is impossible for them
to fix the actual normal market value,
and their inevitable tendency will be
to put their asking price too high. The
acute traders at the various exchanges,
with their own sources Of information
and means Of judging, cannot be led
far astray by Misrepresentation or
misjudgment, and will be able to cal
culate fairly well whether the price can
be maintained. They will sell short"
or in advance Of purchases, for future
delivery, to profit by an inevitable re-
cession later in the season, and the
planters will lose in the end instead OF
gaining by the effort to establish and
maintain a price above what the actual
condition justifies, in addition to losing
the cost Of storage. 1t Is the specula-
tors who will profit.
It would be far better for all con-
cerned and for the trade and industry
of the country, If every effort were
made to ascertain conditions as accur-
ately as possible and make the reports
as correct as complete information and
expert judgment can attain. The mat
ter Is far more in the hands Of the
producers and the local dealers In the
cotton states than in those Of northern
traders or government agents. They
are in the fields or near them and have
the growing crop under their eye, while
others must rely to great extent upon
their representations, trying to make
due allowance for the sway Of immedi-
ate self-interest and conscious or un-
conscious bias. Conscious bias or In
territorial Misrepresentation there
ought not to be, and every effort to
forestall fair conclusions by fixing a
price to be adhered to will work con-
fusion in the market and turn out bad
ly for those who hold the cotton for the
excessive price. 1t Is an attempt to
reverse the action of economic law, and
that is never more than temporarily
successful. In the end it is sure to be
a losing endeavor-Journal Of Com
merce.