The Hawaiian gazette., 1911-01-27
The Sugar Market


similar surplus overproduetion Of Euro
pean beet sugar indicates that in the
year following the year Of overproduc.
ton the acreage planted to beets Is re-
duced, with the result that there is q
deficit Of production which assists in
the absorption Of the preceding year g
surplus. Should this history repeat IL.
self in the planting for the beet sugar
production Of l9ll-12 IL may happen
that early in 1912 the Hamburg market
price will rise above the cost Of Euro.
pean beet sugar production carrying
the New York price at parity with il
above 4 cents a pound
The present, December, 1910, price Of
raw sugar in the New York market 10
$3.50 cents per pound. It seems prob
able that the New York market during
1911 will be under conditions Identical
with the market conditions during
1906, when, under imports Of l999S8
tons of surplus European beet sugar the
average market price Of the year was
1886 cents per pound.
1t also appears probable that during
1912 the New York market win be IN.
der conditions identical with the market
of 157,976 tons Of European beet sugar
which was not surplus from overprod1c-
tion, the average market price Of the
year was 4073 cents per pound. The
present indications are that the i'm
ports Of European beet sugar in 1911
will be about the same as in 1906, and
that the imports in 1912 will be much
more than in 1908.
Probable New York Market Conditions
191S-1915.
1t has been estimated that Cuba will
continue to increase its production
about 100000 tons annually for several
years.
1t is known that Hawaii has already
reached the limit of its annual produc-
ton at not more than $4,000 tons.
Java has also reached its limit of
annual production until additional irri.
CATION works now being planned will
permit of more land being cultivated.
Assuming the continued supply an
nually to the United States of the same
quantities of Hawaii and Java sugar,
and 100000 tons increase each year
from Cuba, there will then be apparent
deficits of annual supply to balance es-
timated consumption.
For year 1913, apparent deficit, about
$4,000 tons.
For year 1914, apparent deficit, about
100000 tons.
For year 1915, apparent deficit, about
100000 tons.
A review Of the possible sources Of
increased production which would alb.
sorb these apparent deficits indicates
that large part of the increase will be
European beet sugar. But European
beet sugar production will not be per
manently increased to supply the United
| States unless the average New Yorl
market price is above parity with tn,
cost of its production, 4 cents pc
pound.
Conclusion as to Future New Yorl
Market Prices.
Without attempting to suggest limits
to the variation of market prices, il
seems safe to conclude from such es
timation of the effect of the general
market conditions as can be made il
advance, that;
l. The average New York market
price of raw sugar during 1911 will moi
| be less than $40 cents per pound.
2. Beginning in 1912 the averag,
market price for several years will b.
more than cents per pound.
In a general way it appears as if th'
six years, ,19lO-1915, would develop sub
stantially the same order of changes il
average annual market prices for raw
sugar as the six years, 1905l910, havt
had, with the prospect that the averag,
market price for the period 19l0191i
will exceed 4.O0S cents per pound, thu
average market price for the period
19O5-19l0.
1t is from the basis of these conclu
sions as to the probable course of tn,
New York market price of raw sugai
during the period l91O-1915 that tn,
Hawaii sugar producing companies
stocks appear as high class investment
securities.