Yorkville enquirer. [volume] (Yorkville, S.C.) 1855-2006, 1911-07-21
RuINoUs CROP ESTIMATES.
Seems as If Their Only Purpose Is to
Depress Prices.

Senator E. D. Smith Of South Caro-
lima on yesterday, says the Washington
correspondent Of the Columbia State,
discovered by chance that Secretary
Wilson is apparently no more cogniz-
ant Of what is going on In the depart
ment Of agriculture than the man in
the moon.
When Senator Smith called at the
department to ask about the prelim-
mary cotton report, issued July 8, the
most astonished man in Washington
was Mr.. Wilson.
He did not know that such report
had been issued.
But the story Is best told In the
words of Senator Smith, who said to-
day:
July 8, a statement Of the condition
Of the cotton crop was issued from
the department of agriculture putting
the condition at 1872 per cent Of nor
NAL as compared with ten year aver
age of 80 per cent. Also that the
acreage Of cotton was about 35,000,-
900 acres. To quote the exact langu-
age Of the alleged report in this respect,
1t says: The report shows. condition
of the crop to be higher than on any
corresponding date in the last ten
years. A month ago the general con-
dition was S5 per cent above the ten
year average. Today 1t Is 1913 per
cent above the ten-year average. The
acreage of cotton this year Is about
35, 900. 900; allowing for the average
amount Of abandonment, about 1,000,-
900 acres, the indications are that ap-
proximately 34,000,000 acres Of cotton
will be harvested. The condition indi-
Gates a probable yield Of 202.S pounds
per acre, which on 34,000,000 acres,
would mean 6,895, 100000 pounds, or
about 14,425,0 900 bales
This being the first estimate Of the
kind. and realizing It's immense value
to the speculator and gambler, l be-
lieved that there was some mistake
somewhere. for 1t makes no difference
as to the fact that this Is mere guess.
Coming as 1t is alleged to have done,
from the agricultural department, II
carried with It official sanction, official
weight, and therefore was calculated
tor have vastly more effect upon the
market than any private guess could
have. I therefore this morning inter-
viewed Secretary Wilson in person. He
without his knowledge or sanction,
without the sanction Of law and that
on account Of the many influences that
are likely to occur affecting the final
yield Of the crop, 1t was foolishness
for any one to attempt to forecast the
yield at this date; that II this did come
from any of his divisions, that it was
the first time and the last time II
would orcur.
"Of course, the DANCE to a large ex-
tent has been done. That Is, its effect
on the price Of cotton has already
been felt. but 1t Is due to the public,
the cotton growers and the legitimate
cotton dealers to know that the agri-
cultural department does not lend Its
sanction to the alleged estimate.
"As an illustration Of the absurdity
of an attempt to make a guess now.
in 1908 we had 32,344,000 acres and
made 13.432,000 bales. In 1910 we
had 32,403,000 acres and made H.
565, 900 bales. In 1906 we had 1874
900 acres and made 13,305,00 bales.
In 1907 we had 31,311, 900 acres and
made 11.325.O00 bales.
Texas Oklahoma, Louisiana, Ar
kansas Mississippi and Alabama are
infested with the weevil. This pest
begins its ravages about the 18th of
July. The extent Of its ravages Is
largely dependent upon the condition
Of the weather. If there Is an excess
Of rain, the damage by the weevil is
greatly increased. If there Is not an
excess Of rain, the damage Is lessened.
Already complaints are coming from
these sections of too much rain. This
factor. together with many others that
the cotton trade Is familiar with,
makes 1t impossible to foretell what
the ultimate yield may be. And I am
extremely gratified to know from the
secretary in person to me, that this
dangerous and absurd preliminary es-
innate will not be made again."