The Hawaiian star. [volume] (Honolulu [Oahu]) 1893-1912, 1911-08-16
OVER SPECULATION
SIX YEARS AGO

Willett & Gray's review of the raw
sugar market, under date of August 3,
shows how in l90l-05 a similar occas-
ion TO the present, with regard to the
European beet crop, caused disas-
trous over-specuation. Following is
the review in part:
The general situation shows re-
newed strength, due to continued I'M
favorable reports on the condition OIL
the growing beet crop of Europe; this
crop made a poor start and has since
eXl erienced damage by insects and
severe drought in many important Sec
tons, with no general relief in sight.
1t is impossible to make any close
estimate at this time of the final out
put the crop; many predictions are
made, including one as low as $780,
600 tons outturn, which is considered
too low, but a conservative estimate,
based on the information received to
date, would be a total European beet
crop of 100000 tons, against $780,
O0O tons in 1901, and 6,136,911 tons
in 1909-10, provided that improved
weather conditions prevail during the
remainder of the season. If dry
weather continues more or less
throughout the next six weeks the
crop will doubtless show a further de-
crease.
In the season of 19O4-O5 the crop of
Europe sustained a similar damage,
but it was not fully realized until later
in the year; the first regular estimate
of that crop was 100000 tons (Octo-
Der 20, 5000 against actual outturn
in 10000 of 5,S52,O43 tons, but the
19O4-O5 crop finally outturned only A.
70S, 1858 tons, being over-estimated ALL
242 tons.
At the beginning September 1,
1900 of that (19O4-O5) campaign the
worlds visible supply amounted to l.
sol sos tons or 100000 tons less than
normal, and quotations ranged as fol-
lows:
October 20, 1904: BeeJs, lis. O%d.;
centrifugals, 4.25c.
November 10, 1904: Beets, 19s.
AID; centrifugals, 4.41c.
November %, 1904: Beets, las.
11ad.; centrifugals, 4.75c.
January 5, 1905: Beets, 15s. Cd;
centrifugals, 4,S75c.
January 10, 1905: Beets, les. 3%d.;
centrifugals, 5.24c.
After the high prices of January 10
the bubble" burst with widespread
disaster in Europe, running numerous
spectators, including many parties
outside the regular sugar trade; prices
declined steadily until IS. SID. was
reached August 81, 1905, on indication
of an increase of 100000 tons in the
next beet croI.
Locally, during the present week,
very little actual business has been
reported, the price asked being so
high as to cause buyers to remain out
of the market, some refners deciding
not to make further purchases until
their stocks are nearly exhausted.
The remaining stock in Cuba is now
small, and, in view of the deficiency
of the usual supply here of cane
sugars, pending the harvesting of the
next Cuban crop, our market must
work closer to the parity of European
beet sugar prices; there is sufficient
cane sugar to meet the requirements
until October, so that We are mostly
interested in the quotations for Octo-
ber-December beet now Us. 9%d. the
rarity of 4.72c for centrifugals at New
York.
New crop Cuba centrifugals for Jan
uary shipment have been sold to spec
ulators at 2%c c. and f. and sellers
are now asking 3.O6 C. c. and f. equal
| to 4.42c landed.
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