The Washington herald., 1911-01-09


security market in the first week Of the
prophetic Of developments in the year as
q whole the omens last week were GER
tainIy not unfavorable. The market did
not advance very much: indeed. In num-
her of stocks. it did not advance at all.
But the market for investment secur-
tiles wiOened, and all through the hnan-
cial district there was a visible inclina-
ton to look upon the hopeful side of
things.
Possibly this was no more than a re-
action from the extreme pessimism late
ly prevailing there and turning toward
the idea that this pesimism had been a
good deal overdone. At any rate. indi-
cations were strong that the market gen.
orally was In much the same state that
1t was last September, when 1t became
obvious that liquidation had ceased. even
IL no broad foundation yet seemed to
be afforded for a vigorous rise.
The truth is that now, no less than at
the end of last summer, the majority
Of common sense. sober minded people
see nothing in the general situation pres
ent or to come that threatens the MAIN
tenance of current dividend payments on
the principal stocks that Wall street trades
in. Every one expects that business Is
going to be dull for some time yet, per-
haps for several months; and at an
earlier day In our financial history, such
as. for instance, the time of the forma-
ton of the United States Steel Corpo-
ration. such q letup in business as is now
In progress would undoubtedly have
caused fear OF a large number of dvi-
dend reductions OF suspensions.
Surpluses Arc Larger.
But every person possessing intelligence
now knows that the great railway and
industrial corporations of the country are
far more strongly established in a finan-
cial way than they were ten years since.
They have large surpluses have spent
great sums of money in improving their
properties SO az to be able to operate
them economically in hard times. and 1t
will take more than one dull season to
force them to cut their interest rates.
At all events no prospect of such cut
ting can now be conjured up; and mas
much, therefore, as the average return
on investments in the leading stocks is
now greater than can be obtained by
lending money in the open market. people
are not disposed to sell the stocks that
when prices decline little on Wall street
speculative selling.
1t may be that this more optimistic
mood is encouraged by a return to that
normal way of thinking over these mat
ters which involves the realization of the
fact that 100000 Of active and ener-
getic people are not disposed for a
very long time to sit with folded hands
in their daily business and that the
great industries Of the land must go on
somehow. despite the uncertainty as to
the construction Of the antitrust law. the
decision in the railway freight rate cases.
and other smaller concerns. During the
last two years the eyes of the world
have been fixed upon the great spread
Of a so-called socialism in England. as in
volved in the policies of the present politi-
cal party in power there. A fair sup
position on reading the horrifying stories
of the fears agitating business and cap
italistic interests in England in the
course of this struggle would be that
English business was fiat on its back, and
that the grass was growing in the streets
OF Manchester and Birmingham.
Resumption Is Evident.
And yet the fact is that although So
cialistic tendencies in England are in
deed disturbing. the business prosperity
Of the land appears to be just now at
its very height. Trade is expanding
there, the country's commercial relations
wear the brightest aspect. and 1t is clear
| that the issues raised by Mr.. Lloyd
George and his brother Radicals are not
really stirring John Bull out Of his ac-
customed phlegm and habits Of plodding
along at his daily work and taking things
as they come. There are great needs
Of consumption that have to be sup
piled in every progressive country. and
after the process of supplying these has
been temporarily checked. or even sus-
pended for a period. there IL strong
natural movement toward a resumption
of business activity. 1t Is well, per-
| haps. to note in this connection that
three years have passed since the panic
Of 1907, and that during most Of this
time business has gone along at a reduced
rate.
In country like ours. and especially
at time when no great political or so
cial questions threaten. between three
and four years is about as long as people
usually wait before going to work again
in a strong and lively way. There are
those who are imbued with the idea that
the business prospect for several years
to come is darkened in this respect, that