New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1911-06-26
FINANCIAL MARKET
General Outlook FavorS Higher
Stock Prices.


do not suggest the sale of stocks or
bonds at prevailing figures. and, as far
as can be learned in the financial COM
munity. nothing in the nature or invest
ment liquidation has taken place In re-
cent weeks. except in instances where
one form of investment has been
changed to another. which Is transfer
of capital rather than actual liquidation.
on the other hand, considerable
amount Of money is moving into good
stocks and bonds. The only active sell
ing Of securities at the moment Is that
for short account on the Stock Ex-
change. and even the operations of this
character are not extensive, despite the
aggressive efforts Of spectators to in
duce bearish sentiment on the argument
that crop conditions have weakened and
that the course of affairs at Washing
ton is distinctly unfavorable to higher
prices in the stock market. The course
of stocks from June | to September ], as
a rule, Is determined by crop prospects,
with the greatest uncertainty and the
widest speculative opportunities in June
and July. August generally witnessing
a rise in prices. as in that month the
final harvests can be pretty definitely
figured out. while any damage that may
have occurred in the preceding months
has been discounted.
Almost invariably in the past there
has been a certain amount of falling on
in crop conditions in June and July.
and there is no reason TO suppose that
this year exceptions will be recorded:
but at the same time it should be borne
in mind that the damage always has
been grossly exaggerated for effect upon
stock and grain quotations, and that
ultimate yields have been far better
than predicted by interests concerned
with the short side of stocks and the
long side Of grain. The crop killers
are actively at work at present. Trust
worthy reports, however. do not war
rant the pessimism that has developed
in some circles. while the increase In
acreage suggests that the country VIII
enjoy normal harvests, even with con-
siderable deterioration in conditions
ment's report Of June I. Too many peo-
pie assume that damage in one locality
means unfavorable conditions through
out the entire grain and cotton belts
Our agricultural community covers an
area of thousands of miles. and as
rule loss in one quarter is offset by I'm
provement in another. and IT is worth
noting that in the last ten years the
production Of cereals in this country
has shown a net gain of 23,3OS.0W
bushels. while with only few ex-
ceptions each year has shown progress
sive increase in the yield.
We have so many different crops and
such an enormous acreage that season
Of famine is out of the question. Never
theless. the operator in stocks who deals
entirely on a speculative basis with the
assistance of borrowed money should
hear in mind that the ups and downs or
the crop growing season will have an i'm
portant bearing on the movement OF
speculative prices Underlying condl-
tions are so sound the country's credit
Is go good. our foreign trade balance is
so large and confidence in financial and
mercantile circles is so strong in the be-
lief that the country has entered
period of industrial expansion that act
nal investment movements in the next
few months doubtless will be governed
TO a smaller extent by crop consldera-
,ions than usually has been the case in
the past: and ii does not appear proba-
ble that the financial operations our
bankers have in mind will be upset by
threats Of drastic revision of the tariff,
although they may play part IN specu-
lativc transactions. Stocks, however,
arc i'm strong hands. and the best mar
kot observers do not look for more than
rapidly passing periods of successfui
hear activity. With the exception of
! 1907 and 1909. the month Of August IN
the last fourteen years has recorded ad-
vances on the Stock Exchange. while
July has done almost as well, with the
figures for June somewhat poorer. So
far In the current month the leading
railroad shares show small loss in the
average. but the industrials present a
slight gain.
Money is in abundant supply in this
country, and the credit Of the country
never has been better. our credit STANDS
as high as that OF Great Britain and
higher than that Of France and Ger
many. II the large oversubscriptions at
q premium to the Panama IS are any IN
dication. There need no longer be any
question as To the ability Of the United
states to float its securities at 3 per
cent without bringing about an artificial
market We no longer need special
market for government bonds. The time
has passed when the government practi-
cally could only secure funds by forcing
the national banks to take its bonds as
q basis for banknote currency. and FUR
| thermore our people apparently at last
| have awakened 10 the wisdom Of an alb
solute divorce Of banknote issues from
the public debt. The new Panama IS al
1903. the high price recorded for them or
the Stock Exchange last week, yield >.
per cent. against 81 per cent for the
British 30 per cent consos at a price