The watchman and southron. [volume] (Sumter, S.C.) 1881-1930, 1911-07-26
CROP ESTIMATES ARE ABSURD
WILSON REPCDIATES BUREAI
REPORT ON COTTON OUT
LOOK.
senator Smith, Calling Wilson's At
tcntion TO Its Abusrdity, Secures
His Promise to Sin No More.


d. Smith of South Carol todav die.
covered by chance Secretary
Wilson is apparent more cog.
infant of what is on in the de-
partment Of edlre than tho
When Sc S$smith called at the
departing 8 ask about the pre-
limina' . on report issued JULY
,. tr = astonished man in Wash
inc As Mr.. Wilson.
He lid not know that such a re-
port had been issued.
But the story is best told in the
words of Senator Smith, who said
today:
July 3, a statement of the con-
dition Of the cotton crop was issued
from the department of agriculture
putting the condition at SS.2 per
cent of normal as compared with q
lo-year average Of 80 per cent. Also
that the acreage Of cotton was about
35,OOO,OOO acres. To quote the ex-
act language Of the alleged report
in this respect, it says: "The report
shows condition Of the crop to be
higher than on any corresponding
date in the last 10 years. A month
ago the general condition was S.5 per
cent above the 10-year average.
Today it is 1913 per cent above the
U-Na
cotton this year is about 35, 200, 900:
allowing for the average amount of
abandonment, about 1000, 900 acres.
the indications are that approximate
ly 100000 acres of cotton will be
harvested. The condition indicates a
probable yield Of 202.S pounds per
acre, which on 100000 acres.
would mean 6,S95, 600, 900 pounds, or
about 14,425,OO ables.'
This being the first estimate Of
the kind, and realizing its immense
value to the speculator and gambler.
believed that there was some mis-
take somewhere, for it makes no diff.
mere guess. Coming as it is alleged
to have done. it carried with it official
sanction, official weight, and there
fore was calculated to have vastly
more effect upon the market than
any private guess could have. I
therefore this morning interviewed
Secretary Wilson in person. He in
formed me that this estimate was
without his knowledge or sanction.
without the sanction Of law and that
on account Of the many influences
that are likely to occur affecting the
final yield of the crop, it was foolish
ness for any one to attempt to fore
cast the yield at this date: that if
this did come from any Of his divis-
ions, that it was the first time and
the last time it would occur.
"Of course. the damage to a large
extent has been done. That is. it's
effect on the price of cotton has all
ready been felt, but it is due to the
public, the cotton growers and the
legitimate cotton dealers to know
that the agricultural department does
not lend it's sanction to the alleged
estimate.
AS an illustration Of the absur-
dity of an attempt to make a guess
now, in 1908 we had 32,344,OOO acres
and made 13.432,O 600 bales. In 1919
we had 32,4O3,OOO acres and made
11,565,000 bales. In 1905 we had
31.374, 900 acres and made 133O5.-
600 bales. In 1907 we had 31.S11.-
600 acres and made 11,325,OO bales.
Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana. Ar
kansas, Mississippi and Alabama are
infested with the weevil. This pest
begins its ravages about the 18th of
July. The extent Of the ravages is
largely dependent upon the condi-
ton of the weather. If there is an
excess of rain. the damage by the
weevil is greatly increased. If there
is not an excess of rain. the damage
is lessened Already complaints are
coming from those sections Of too
much rain. This factor. together
with many others that the cotton
trade is familiar with. makes il an
possible to foretcll what the ultimate
yield may be. Ard 7 an extremely
grat.i"d 90 know f~om the secretary
in person to me, that this DANGEROUS
and absurd preliminary estimate will
not Doe made again."
The Merchants and Planters bank