The Washington times., 1911-12-17
SURPRISING STRENGTH IN STOCKS
DUE TO H. c. tricks PREDICTIONS
Veteran Steel Man Sees Great Improvement Trade
Business Shown Increased Cings and
sPubl Still Holds Aloof-Money and the
sscciaI Financial

NEW YORK, Dec. lit Is wholly
likely that the improvement In stock
which characterized Wall Streets busi-
ness week reflected a belated appreci-
alton on the part of professional traders
or the betterment in general industrial
and trade conditions recently reported.
AS pointed out In this column two
weeks ago, the delegates at the conven-
ton of the American Bankers Associ-
alton. at. New Orleans, all returned to
the city with highly favorable reports
of the business situation, but the specu-
lative element met the hopeful state
ments of the bankers with open skepti-
cism and treated their optimism as
something in the nature of Sunshine
movement
Professional Wall Street might have
persisted In the opinion that things
were showing no Improvement indefi-
nitely but for the fact that very I'M
portant operator. in the course Of a
private conversation, expressed the
opinion that the year 1912 would be one
of very marked activity in iron and
steel. The name of Henry c. F'rick is
one with which speculative Wall Street
conjures, and when it became known
that he had actually predicted an i'm
proving market for steel during the
coming year the same Individuals who
would not believe anything of business
improvement few days before acted
as though the country was In for a
great industrial boom.
Predicting a Boom.
1t is difficult to say In which mood
speculative Wall Street appears most
ridiculous: In that of deep depression
which seizes upon II on occasions. or at
such times as 1t becomes deliriously en-
thusiastic over some trifing develop
ment. mere expression Of opinion, fo-
instance. as In the present case. There
Is, OF course, no gainsaying the supe-
rfortty Of Mr.. Frick's judgment on mat
tiers pertaining to iron and steel, and
1t Is to be hoped that the views credited
to him. of very decided improvement
In the steel industry and in all industry
IN 1912. may be realized, but prophecy
is one thing and the fulillment Of a
prophecy Is another. and no man living
today can foretell with certainty what
the coming year will bring forth.
II there ever has been a year marked
by a national election which has proved
a wholly satisfactory year, CONNER
tic pItStHt keHeTauOn OF DuSl-
ness men cannot recall it. Some Presi-
dental years have been less disturbing
than others. 1t Is admitted, but, never
at time when a tariff issue is the
question. Entirely aside from the ele-
ment OF potential disturbance from poll
tics. which renders one skeptical OF a
predicted business boom. within the
coming. twelve months, the industrial
future is wrapped up wholly in factors
at present unknown; II depends entire
~ upon the outcome of the haryets. NOT
those of the past, but those Of the CON-
Ing season. only small portion of
which are in the ground, and what these
will bring forth no man living knows.
Forcing the Stock Market.
Although stock prices advanced ma
terially and although the movement was
at times impressive, 1t was not wholly
convincing. There was a certain some
thing about the dealings that suggested
a forced or artificial rather than a
spontaneous or true market. Stocks.
despite some trifiing irregularity, were
at all times strong, but there were fire.
quent intervals of utter stagnation;
there would come periods Of perhaps an
hour or SO Of great activity. during
or three issues with United States Steel
common always to the fore. When this
forced draught was withdrawn the fame
which II created all but went out leav-
Self-evidently. 1t was a market with
out buyers; that Is. without buyers re-
cruted from the ranks of the public,
and because of that fact numerous COM
mission house brokers asserted that the
movement was merely another false
course. II it is not supported by public
buying lit will not hold, and the real