Las Vegas optic. (East Las Vegas, N.M.) 1908-1921, 1911-11-04
VOTE LIGHTER THAN in 1908
IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THE
TOTAL WILL EXCEED FIFTY
FIVE THOUSAND
THE BLUE BALLOT WILL LOSE
ESTIMATE MADE BY THE OPTIC
SHOWS THAT AMENDMENT
PROVISION WILL FAIL

Santa Fe, N NJ, Nov. 4.-Accord-
ing to estimates made by the Santa
Fe New Mexican the republican tick
ct will be the choice of thevoters in
the first state election next Tuesday.
by majority of 1850, while the re-
publicans will elect three-fourths of
the first state legislature. The esti-
mate is as follows:
1t is customary for campaign com
mittees and newspapers to make pre-
election estimates which are based
on more or less colored reports from
partisan sources and doctored up to
represent the political hopes of the
party giving out the estimates. There |
is little value to these prediction es-
Inmates, for the democratic side new
er fails to give out figures that show
the certainty of democratic victory
and the republicans are just as pos
tive about their prediction of great {
republican landsildes. lie
In New Mexico, with the election \
only four days away, it is very diff z
cult even for the campaign COM =
mittees to make their customary es- 9
innate Of partisan maiorities. The Z
muitiplieity of candidates to begin
with, the effect of county tickets and
county fights upon the state ticket,
the injection of the blue ballot and
of other issues, and the concentra-
tion of the democratic fight on the
head of the republican ticket, all in
troduce factors of uncertainty.
But there are certain basic facts
which at least furnish some data from
which to figure. The New Mexican
will not take the enormous majority
Of more than $4,000 by which the con-
stitution was carried only ten months
ago. despite a vigorous democratic
opposition, nor the great republican
majority in the constitutional con-
yention, of 70 republicans to q dem
ocrats: nor the average majorities for
the republican candidates outside OF
delegate in 1906 and 1908, which
ranged from 5000 to 1000; nor the
nlurality of more than 5000 which
was given Andrews over Money in
1904 although B. s. Rodey headed
lust such movement as the prog
ressive movement is this year and
polled 3,419 votes; nor the majority
90 IN o0a of Rodey over Ferguson
in 1902. nor the majority of S,7OO OF
Rodev over o. A. Larrazolo lin
1900, although these all indicate tnat
New Mexico has been securely an
cbored in the republican column the
mast IA years, but it will take the
elaction returns for Delegate An
drews. a total of 27,217 cast for o. A
T.arrazolo. being more votes by 5,0OC
than were ever cast for a democratic
candidate in the history Of New Mex
leo.
Contrary to common expectations
the total vote cast on next Tuesda!
will not be as great as that cast il
November, 1908. There have beel
estimates of total vote of 10000
and even of 10000 and $4,000, but
is not likely that the total vote will
exceed $1,000. OF this total of 500
the republicans are apt to receiv
$4,000 straight ballots and the den
ocrats 10000. The remaining 1000
which will be more or less scratched
will decide the battle.
In 1908, o. A. Larrazolo, the demo
cratic candidate, carried 1S counties
the republican candidate carrie
70 counties. That was on more
less personal issue, for the ohter ca
didates on the republican ticket wei
elected by majorities averaging $50
On Tuesday next. the republicans al
apt to receive lower majority tha
they did in 1903 in three countie