Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1911-06-21

Twelve months from now the two great
political parties will be choosing their
respective nominees for the high office of
President of the United States The re-
publican national convention usually
meets about the middle of June and the
democratic gathering Is held two or three
weeks later Until these conventions meet
and the nominations are made the politi-
cal activities Of the entire nation Will
center about their probable action.
The history of national political con-
ventions shows that only rash prophet
would dare to predict year in advance of
the iballoting the names of the nominees.
Just at this time a majority of the po-
litical prognosticators agree that Presi-
dent Taft will be renominated by the re-
publican party. and that the democratic
convention will choose Woodrow Wilson.
Champ Clark or Judson Harmon. OF
course there are others who predict that
none of these will win, that the repub-
licans will nominate Roosevelt, that the
democrats will again choose Bryan and
so on.
1t is interesting, therefore, to take a
backward glimpse to see how the predic-
tons OF a year in advance OF other ma
nominations. In 1907. year before the
last conventions. il was the consensus of
opinion that the republicans would NOM
mate Taft and the democrats Bryan. pre-
dictions that were fulfilled. But the Cos
sips were very busy with the talk of a
second elective term for Roosevelt,
which was not hushed until the nomina-
ton of Mr.. Taft had actually been made;
while the antLBryan democrats talked
much Of Gov Johnson Of Minnesota The
,iv,at ~ PnnSpvaft and porknr in
1904 were freely predicted year in adj
vance, as were those of Mckinley and
Bryan in 1900. But that is as far back
as the honor OF the prophets extends.
X
In 1895, year before the conventions
that first nominated Mckinley and Bryan.
the DEMONSTRATIONS
Forecasts Various were various and
and Vehement. demonra,s sa,d the
choice Of the convention would be Richard
p Bland Of Missouri. The gold demo-
Gratis had not then abandoned hope of
controlling the convention and they
talked confidently of the nomination of
Richard Olney or David B. Hill. Some
of the silverites were certain that John
r. Mclean would be the democratic
standard bearer and others that 10 Black
burn would be chosen. But no one men,
toned the name OF william jennings
Bryan, who was unthought Of until he
made the famous cross of gold speech
in the convention
At the same time. while a great many
people over the country predicted that
William Mckinley would be the republic
an nominee. most of the republicans in
the lower house of Congress were GER
tain that Speaker Thomas b. Reed would
be successful in his aspirations. Others
doomed Stephen B. Elkins. and there
were those who favored giving BENJAMIN
Harrison a third nomination. When the
convention met the Mckinley prophets
were overwhelmingly justified.
In 1892 the denominations Of Harrison
and Cleveland were practically conceded
q year in advance despite the Hill revolt
against Cleveland. and notwithstanding
the Quay efimity to Harrison and
Rlaine's last losing fight for the presi-
dency In 1893 President Cleveland was
renominated by reclamation. and his