The evening times. [volume] (Grand Forks, N.D.) 1906-1914, 1911-10-06

pIoPAiSh "a "oN
forecast the outcome of the present
two points. would have little regard
for his reputation. The secret meth
DDS by which Italy planned her
scheme and so far has carried out her
have given little foundation
for conjecture as to the real results
sought. Italy has for a long time
sought to strengthen her rather
weak grip on the north African terri
tory of which Tripoli is the capital.
The weakness of Turkey afforded the
opportunity. and when a aus belli
is needed it is not difficult to find.
One of the reasonable certainties
Of the conflict is hat the war will
be a short one. True. the powers
are neutral. and the triple alliance is
not Jared. Maybe the neutrality
sirous Of seeing Il body blow dealt
the ''sick man of Europe" so that
a Acknowledgement may the sooner
take place. With Europe playing
hands off. the fighting ability of the
belligerents is not difficult to analyze.
Turkey has no means of sending
either troops or hattleships to Trip
oil except via the Mediterranean
route, and as between the two nations
Italy is complete mistress of the Med
i%terranean. Turkey would run the
risk of having both her army and
navy destroyed piecemeal before they
could reach the seat of war. 1t is,
therefore, probable. that Turkey will
make no serious attempt to strength
en- her African forces. leaving the few
garrisons and naval vessels now in
the vicinity to meet the entire
strength of the Italian forces.
One method only is left to Turkey.
once her road to Tripoli is blockaded.
and that is a guerilla warfare in
which the Arabs of the deserts and
hills lying inland from the Tripolitan
coast could be enlisted. That is eX-
actly the kind of war those tribes
men like. and inasmuch as they are
Jealous Mohanedans it requires little
to arouse them to the fighting frenzy.
But as We understand the situation.
Italy does not intend to occupy the
country except the coast and the coast
towns. and as it would be easy to de-
feat the hordes hat might swarm
down from the hills in any of those
coast cities. the outlook for even a
long guerilla war is o very promis-
ing.
At home. Turkey is facing a crisis
in her own affairs that would give any
nation all the concern ii wanted. II
one were to look for the controlling
and responsible authority in Turkey.
1t would be difficult to find il. Such
authority is not in the new Sultan
Mehmed ". now in power for about
two years and a half. nor in the
ministry. nor in the new elective and
representative assembly. These are
the formal organs of the Turkish gov
eminent; and back of them is the in
formal committee of Young Turks,
who brought them all into being, and
who have been trying without much
success to make the combination a
going concern in the line of capable
government. Their, has not beer
%ime to get this new system u of
the experimental stage. so that the
sudden demand by Italy has caught
Turkey with no acknowledged or Wig
orous central authority capable of
Nv 'iiuoupt'N initial Nudl-
tiles of the Turkish people effective
~. The present Turkish government
has all it can do to keep things going
In the domestic field with some de
gree of order. and inevitably it is
thrown into discordance and confu-
SION when confronted with a sudden
and warlike demand for a piece Of its
territory. The fact that Tripoli is OF
no essential value to Turkey does no,
II at all: it is the name of the
thing that counts. Just as 1t did ir
the case Of Bosnia and Herzegovina
for which Austria Hungary in the enC
made a fair payment. as it is quite
likely that Italy will do in this case O,
'Tripoli. But the Turkish government
simply because it is a compound or
Eanization. not trained to present {
solid front either at home or abroad
and more or les discordant by habit
Is all the more likely to yield to tn,
seeming inevitable and end the wal
as speedily as possible.