The Birmingham age-herald., 1911-09-24
Taft Seems to Be Complete Iy Certain of His Re
 nomination
DEMOCRATS HAVE
 PUZZLE TO SOLVE
Woodrow Wilson and Judson Harmon Will Probably Be Leaders for Nomination, But Others Are
 to Be Reckoned With
By EDWARD MARSHALL

By EDWARD MARSHALL
 New York, September 2S.-It has been
 many a long year since the political prophets have clapped such utterly be- wildered hands upon their throoping
 brows and yelled for help with such me
 unanimity of chorus. With Taft pro gressing on his across the continent trip preceded by one uproar of insurgency III his own party and followed by another' he seems, still, to be completely certain of the majority vote of the republican convention; but, as Henry D. Purroy was fond of warning his associates in New
 Yorl1's management in the old days, there is nothing so uncertain as sure thing in politics" Upon the democratic side, however, there is nothing to disturb the slightest calm.
 Many Delegates at Convention
 have not made an exact calculation
 but there will be. including the delegates
 from Alaska Porto Rico and the District
 of Columbia, somewhere in the neighoor-
 hood of 1850 delegates at the democratic
 convention. No mere majority of these
 delegates can nominate. More rigid in
 their rules than the republicans, the dem
 oerats require a two-thirds vote for the
 selection of their candidate. And there
 will be not one, but several names to
 bs considered very seriously. with raft
 of less important ones, which cut in upon
 the early votes. at least, materially This
 makes two-thirds large and horrid num-
 Der.
 Interesting possibilities become ap-
 parent to the man who Is of specula-
 tive mind. Suppose. for instance, Will son gets, on the first ballot, half a thousand votes, and Harmon polls 300.
 These, of course, are the roundest Of
 round figures, not worked out care fully, but used merely for the purpose
 of illustration. Then there comes along
 the field, running, possibly, at good
 distance from the leaders. but still run
 ming none the less, There would be first of all, perhaps, among them Champ Clark of Missouri, Underwood | of Alabama might be second in tho | field: Marshall of Indiana will hav' ' his delegation on tho early ballots
 Foss of Massachusetts win have his. SC probably will Dix of New York, ana | there will be some others.
 There are so many of these names and each has such real claims upon his friends, and some of them, as Clark undoubtedly, for instance. on the ma tional party. that they will cut severely into the leaders early votes for cer- tain. Now, if the loyalty of partisans
 to these minor party leaders holds firmly-and there are names which have placed there in the field" which really are very far from minor-it may
 be hard for either of the favorites to get that two-thirds vote. Ballot after ballot may be taken. developing almost
 the necessary strength for Wilson or for Harmon, but not developing quite
 what Is needed. Such things have hap pened In the past and resulted in aban- donment of sensational favorite by
 enough delegates to, when they cen tered op some one of less apparent importance, sweep the favorite into the background and bring the field horse to the fore. Which name in the field would be the best to rally the convention to, fl such a thing occurred? l asked today a man who ought to know-a southern democrat of the old school now ar important journalist, once one of his party's leaders in his own state. Probably Champ Clark's," he an swered
 He may be right. he may be wrong; al any rate the democratic situation is as interesting as ever any contest on race track was, and, in New York, betting has begun already. I know of one con- siderable wager indicating faith in two things, Taft's election and Woodrow Will sons nomination.
 Wilson Has Warm Fight In the meantime Governor Wilson's long fight with the machine of his own party in his own state of New Jersey waXes warm and strident. Tuesday vii occur
 the first primaries under the Geran law to select candidates for the legislature The primaries will bring his struggle with 1 James Smith, Jr. and James R. NuGent ex-state democratic chairman, to a full | climax The law is one of Governor Viii sons favorites and is said to be the | hardest on machine politicians of any IT | the United States And he will personally | work tooth and nail in favor of the ant machine candidates. For a governor tl l go into a campaign Of the sort Is quit. | unprecedented in New Jersey; but VII. | son s energy appears to be intending. His l lean face is getting leaner, its lines art | growing deeper. but. otherwise, he doe.
 not show that the long strain he has beer | under has worn on him at all and his | physical and mental activities are in
 creasng. not decreasing, as if scrappins were a stimulant to the scholastic orair and body.
 His friends point to his frank admls sion read this week, that he may have profited to some extent by the 19,500 Frau dulent votes cast in two counties of New Jersey, a very admirable thing sI makes me hot, all over. to think that may have been elevated, in part, by con temptible fraud he said in his Newark speech the other night
 Probably no similar statement has beer
 made before in the history of American politics by man in his position. although it is believed by cynics that foul ballots
 have from time to time played a larger part in the election of some other man than they did in the case of Woodrow Wilson His attack on questionable meth ods in his own party at this stage of the game Is regarded as precedent creation not likely to be initiated widely. There are some who now predict that Dr. Wil- son will retire from office because of the unpleasant revelations. but there is nc chance of that The illegal votes were
 but a small per centage of the large ma
 iority he was elected by. His declaration that, h his opinion. presidential candi. dates should be ratified at primary cleo, tions, Is regarded as another of his in- teresting contributions to political current literature, but is not taken very seriously Harmon Is Active
 In the meantime Governor Harmon
 boom is reverherating loudly In Ohio loudly enough to be quite audible far be