El Paso herald. (El Paso, Tex.) 1901-1931, 1911-06-21

a w ELt months from HOW THO
two great political parties will
be choosing their respective
nominees for the high office - presi-
dent of the United States. The Re
publican national convention usually
meets about the middle of June and
the. Democratic gathering is held two
or three weeks later. Until these con-
yentions meet and the nominations are
made the political activities of the en-
tire nation will center about their
probable action.
The history of national political con-
ventions shows that only rash proph
ct would dare to predict year in adj
vance of the balloting the names of
the nominees. Just at this time ma
jority Of the political prognosticators
agree that president Taft will be re-
nominated by. the Republican party.
and that the Democratic convention
will choose Woodrow Wilson. Champ
Clark or Judson Harmon. Of course
there are others who predict that none
of these will win, that the Republicans
will nominate Roosevelt, that the Dem
ocrats will again choose Bryan, and so
on.
Previous Predictions.
1t is interesting. therefore to take a
backward glimpse to see how the pre-
dictions of a year in advance of other
national conventions have squared with
the nominations. In 1907, a year before
the last conventions it was the con-
sensus of opinion that the Republic
cans would nominate Taft and the
Democrats Bryan, predictions that
were fulfilled. But the gossips were
very busy with the talk of second
elective term for Roosevelt which was
not hushed until the nomination of Mr..
Taft had actually been made; while
the anti-Bryan Democrats talked much
Of Gov. Johnson of Minnesota. The
nominations Of Roosevelt and Parker
in 1904 were freely predicted year in
advance, as were those of Mckinley
and Bryan in 1900. But that is as far
back as the honor Of the prophets ex-
tends.
In 1895. year before the conven-
lions that first nominated Mckinley
and Bryan. the representations were
various and vehement Silver Demo-
Gratis said the choice of the convention
would b Richard P. Bland of Missouri.
The gold Democrats had not then aban-
doned hope of controlling the conven-
ton and they talked confidently of the
nomination OF Richard Olney or David
B. HILL Some Of the si1verites were
certain that John r. Mclean would be
the Democratic standard bearer and
chosen. But no one mentioned the
name of William Jennings Bryan. who
was unthought Of until he made the
famous Cross Of Gold speech in the
convention.
Mckinley and Reed.
At the same time, while a great
many people over the country predict
ed that William Mckinley would be the
Republican nominee, most Of the Re-
gress were certain that speaker Thorn
as E. Reed would be successful In his
aspirations Others doomed Stephen B.
Elkins, and there were those who ia
vored giving Benjamin Harrison
third nomina ton When the conven-
ton met the Mckinley prophets were
overwhelmingly justified
In 1892 the denominations of Harrison
and Cleveland were practically eonced-
ed a year in advance, despite the Hin
revolt against Cleveland. and notwith-
standing the Quay enmity to Harrison
ard Blaine's last losing fight for the
presidency. In 1888 president Cleve-
land was renominated by reclamation
and his success was hardly cues
toned at any time before the conven-.
ton
But the wiseacres in 1887 had no no
ton OF whom the Republicans would
nominate to oppose Cleveland in 1883
There was a small but loud coterfe
who had the slogan OF Blaine or
Bust" Notwithstanding the fact that
Blaine had four years before suffered
the first Republican defeat since the
civil war. Allison, of Iowa, Depew. OF
New York. Robert T. Lincoln, Of Illi-
nois. Alger. Of Michigan, ingalls,. OF
Kansas-these and dozen others were
much talked of. But, a year before
the convention. the most prominent
candidates were John Sherman. Of
Ohio, and Walter Q. Gresham. of Indi-
ana Indeed, the Sherman men were
most confident that their hero this time
could not fail When the convention
met Sherman had more than twice as
many votes as Gresham. the next high
est man, While Depew and A1ger also
had more than Benjamin Harrison.
The nomination of Harrison was made
on the eighth ballot. Gresham was I'M
reconciled. he refused to support the
nominee, and five years later became
secretary of state in Cleveland's cabi-
net when Cleveland had defeated Har-
rison for the second term
Prophets Were Uncertain.
In 1883 the prophets of neither party
were certain as to what would happen
in the national conventions of 1884.
The Republicans were torn by the eJ
tension OF the factiona1 warfare Of the
stalwarts and ha1fbreeds of New York.
One side said that president Arthur
would be given the nomination, the
other that 1t would go to the
"Plumed Knight" James G. Blaine.
The Democratic situation was even
more uncertain. although Gov. Cleve-
land was beginning to make a record at
Albany The old-line Democrats talked
much Of Allen G.. Thurman, the "Old
Roman" of Ohio. and the ultra-con-
servatives declared that Samuel Ran
dali would be elected. Speaker John
G. Carlisle. Of Kentucky, had a large
following among Democrats of the
house. although his southern home was
recognized as a probable bar to his
success.
In 1879 the guessers were all wrong.
The general belief, belief that
amounted to faith. was that the Dem
ocrats would renominate Samuel J. TIL
den, whom they declared had been law
fully elected and fraudu1ently counted
out in 1876. Nobody had any serious
idea that Tilden would be turned down
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