New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1911-09-20
FORECASTS FAVOR LAURIER
His Majority After To-morrow's
Election Estimated at %.
fBy telegraph 10 The Tribune.

Ottawa. Sept. 19.-Never in the history OF
the Dominion has this country witnessed
such a stirring election campaign as the
one which will be brought TO a close oil
Thursday. The Conservatives have not put
up such tremendous fight and appealed 10
the people with greater confidence since
1891. when they swept the country under
the leadership of Sir John \. Macdonald.
IL the present issue were being fought
out merely on the question Of reciprocity
from an economic point Of view, there is
little doubt but that Laurier would sweep
the country from the Atlantic to the Pa
clfc. The Conservatives, however. whether
sincerely or not. have introduced an. en-
tirelv new issue and one which they assert
to be OF greater importance TO the people
Of Canada than the mere question OF dol
lars and cents. namely. whether Canada
shall be turned from Great Britain tow
ard Washington
In addition to this the Canadian manu-
facturers have thrown all their influence
and power backed up by a huge campaign
fund, toward preventing the agreement
going through. Manufacturers, who in the
past were ardent Liberals, have bolted the
party and are now opposing the govern
ment with all their might They believe
that this free interchange OF natural prod
ucts is the thin edge OF the wedge which
will ultimately lead TO complete free trace
between the two countries and. actiES upon
this belief they are fighting as If Tor their
very lives. The Conservative leaders say
that they are absolutely certain that there
is going to be landslide in their favor
doomed to certain defeat.
All Depends on the Farmer.
ON the other hand. Sir Wilfrid Lauricr
has EXPRESSED himself on several occasions
as confident Of sweeping majority. Close
and unbiased political Observers say that
everything depends on the farmer Inc
hard fighting for the Liberals Is In the
cities. The hard fighting for the ConSerVa-
lives is i'm the counties. 1t means o
course, that reciprocity is popular Win
those whom it was specially designed 10
benefit and that the outburst OF nigh tarit
activities is heard most where it VIII make
The loudest noise-in the manufacturing
centres
In this situation the responsibility FOR the
fate of a measure intended for ms penehl
is seen To rest almost altogether upon
t,,e shoulders Of the farneT-rnost OF al. the
farmer who nabitually votes CONSERVATIVE.
In the old Patron of Industry parts Oh
Ontario. where the Liberal parts has never
been able TO get the support OF the farmer
it is claimed, has served to-
bring them all in line.
From reliable reports received here from
cyc,,. nroyiucC in Canada the return OF the
can be predicted With absolute
assurance During the last few days de-
tailed reports have been received here as
10 the outlook in every constituency in the
dominion. \ careful and Conservative
ANALYSIS Of these reports indicates that the
government can, with reasonable assurance
look for a majority of at least t"enE'
This will mean reduction OF the premier
present majority by twenty-five seats.
According to the best information avail
able the polling results should show some
thing like the following