The herald and news. [volume] (Newberry S.C.) 1903-1937, 1911-12-12
LEVERS COTTON REPORT BILL.
Effort to Secure Accuracy in Bureaus
Statistics Method for
Crop Reports.

Lever, of the 7th South Carolina dis
trict, said today that very early IN
the session of congress he will intro
duce a bill for the preparation OF
which he came to Washington before
hand, in the effort to make more &C
curate the reports of the bureau of sta
tistics of the department of agrl-
culture relating to cotton. The bill
simplifes the present method Of gath
ering the reports, and abolishes GER
tain features of the system with a
view to greater accuracy.
"It is not intended by this bill,' ex-
platned Mr. Lever, s'to create the I'M
preston that the integrity of these re-
ports of the department, relative to
cotton, is called into question. On the
contrary, I am satisfied that the re-
ports are fairly gotten up with no idea
Of giving special advantage to either
the producer or manufacturer Of COT
son, but are predicated upon the idea
that &here shall be some disinterested
source from which shall issue reliable
data upon which the cotton trade may
act. Since the unfortunate Hyde at
1air. no one has questioned the person
al integrity Of those whose duty it IS to
issue these reports.
During the past eleven years the
department of agriculture has made
eleven crop estimates, five Of which
were slightly overestimated, and six
Of them slightly underestimated. In
years of overestimates, the average er-
TOR was 81 per cent; in those OF un-
derestimate the average error was 81.
rer cent: for the entire eleven years
the average error was 81 per cent,
and the balance of the overestimate
and the underestimate shows for the
entire eleven years a net underesul-
mate of g of 1 per cent. The producer
in the eleven-year period has had the
benefit of g of per cent. When 1t IS
remembered that the reports of the
department of agriculture are estl-
mates and not enumeratons the figures
here indicate as near an approximate
Of accuracy as the present system is
capable. It is impossible to forecast
with absolute accuracy the yield Of
any given crop; the best expected is
to continue to perfect the system with
q view Of reaching the nearest ap-
proach to accuracy.
*sI am unwilling to abandon a sys-
tenn of some kind Of crop reporting,
after it was inaugurated and built up
at the instance of the producers to
protect them against the biased and
unreliable reports of the cotton gamb-
Ter. Such an abandonment at this
time, or in the future, will place the
producer again as formerly, entirely at
the mercy Of the speculative element,
whose business it is to make his re
ports in accordance with the side OF
the market upon which he is gambling.
81 am interested, however, in i'm
proving the system and in making
these reports represent as nearly as
possible the exact conditions, both with
reference to the growing cotton and
final yield. This bill purposes to rid
the system of some of it's crudities and
inconsistencies and to place 1t upon
a more reasonable and sensible basis.
Under the present system the acreage
report is issued the 1st of June of each
wear. as of the 25th of May. That the
number of acres in cultivation on the
25th of May of a given crop year rep
reSentS the number OF acres tnaI Will
be continued in cultivation is prepos-
terous on it's face, and yet the report
as to the acreage at this time has a
sentimental effect during the entire
crop year and does, in a greater or
less degree, effect prices. Those IA
miliar with the cotton business know
that during the month of June, for
reasons innumerable, hundreds OF
thousands of acres of cotton are aban-
doned. The present report does not
account for this Abandonment of acre
age until the 1st of December, when
the final estimate is made and when
the report is too late to be Of value to
the producer. My bill makes the acre
age report on the 1st of July when the
acreage then in cotton will more near
ly represent the acreage that will con-
tinue to be cultivated. This, I regard
as substantial Improvement.