The Washington times., 1911-06-18

n,
cepts the authority of the guides OF
the Adirondacks and the Maine Wooos'
man lost in a forest wanders around
| in a circle, and for that reason clever
and experienced woodsman always I'M
presses that fact upon tenderfoot, on
his first hunting or fishing expedition
| that If he strays from camp and cam
not find his way back he should pause
and rest, quiet his nerves ana collect
his wits and then, starting out again.
follow down the first water course ne
| comes to, for 1t will lead him some
where to a larger stream or lake where'
in all probability, If he does not strike
his own camp, he may hit that OF
! another party, or find other means of
reaching safety.
The speculative element in the stock
market of the week acted very much as
| If they had lost their bearings and were
wandering in a maze. Prices were
| highly irregular, but the leading issues
| moved in aimless fashion and most OF
| them brought up just about where they
started from, or, in other words. they
worked around in a circle like the man
| lost in a woods. The rank and file
were clearly confused by the uncertain
| movements, and for that there was
small wonder, for their course was
crossed by false trails made up-to sus-
tain this parallel-of many misleading
demonstrations in minor issues and
specialities which led nowhere, or at
| least did not point to the blazed path
home.
Normal Uncertainty.
1t looks very much as though specula-
tive Wall Street is likely to continue
as a man astray in forest for time
longer, for the inability of the market
ito find ITSELF" and the confusion of
ideas concerning the course of prices
in the near future, is clearly the result
of the uncertainty which surrounds the
condition of the growing crops. The
present season of the year is, and always
will be, one of uncertainty; in fact 1t
is a period Of normal uncertainty-if
such a confusion of terms may be ap-
plied-for none of the crops are out of
danger except a moderate proportion OF
winter wheat. and very much Of the
Country's prosperity, or the basis of
prosperity, which is wholly dependent
upon the harvest outcome, is wavering
in the balance.
The speculative market Is no stranger
to crop scares," and, naturally, when
all else is rosy, the stock operator Is
not much given to alarm in June over
the harvest outlook, but in the present
instance the financial district has not
recovered fully from the long-drawn-
out and agonizing depression of the
past, and is not thoroughly assured as
to the political future. In consequence,
! the majority of brokers are timid and
do not care to commit themselves heav-
lily. and they have become exceedingly
sensitive to the reports of unfavOrable
conditions extreme heat, and drought
in the wheat and cotton belts. Despite
unofficial reports of scattered rains and
improving conditions which reached the
Street during the week, the absence OF
full confirmation in the weather maps
until the closing day of the week, taken
with tho very unfavorable summary is
sued by the Weather Bureau on Tues
day, left brokers in doubt as TO actual
conditions.
Waiting on Crop News.
Naturally, 1t is impossible for anyone
but a speculator in commodities to de-
termine anything from the unofficial
weather reports which come to hand
and as these are used in connection
with day TO day operations, they canno
tions by any manner of means. Wal
Street has appeared to be more con
cerned with the drought in the cotton
belt than with the unfavorable reports
from the Dakotas. bearing upon injur!
to spring wheat, or the extreme no
weather in the central territory, whicl
the specuiators asserted has been detri
mental to crops generally, but with par
ticular reference to corn, pastures, anC
hay Such conditions are not favorabl,
to growing crops, but, as indicated b!
today's commodity markets, weathe
changes overnight.
The fact that cotton, despite the lat
decline. the first substantial reaction
since the opening of June, is mucl
higher than when the Government re
port was issued, goes long way toWarC
convincing stock spectators that th
drought has worked some modification
in the harvest prospects. OF course,
is very early, and If crop damage ha
occurred. there is ample opportunity TO
some substantial recovery, and 1t Is no
well to overlook the fact that an enor
nous area is under cultivation for al
crops this year, and that the first prom
ises were brilliant, so that despite SOM
deterioration, there may be an abun
dant yield, but the conflicting report
and the uncertainty concerning the har
| vests 1mpelle0 COHSSl NdllOH
stock spectators, whose caution wa
chiefly responsible for the hesitatinl
market of the week.
, Credit Balance Abroad.
Although the harvest outcome is b.
far the most vital matter for considera
ton in the market at the present tim
the financial week was not without i'm
Dcrtant developments Of basis or fun
damental nature. In fact the most no
table actual event of the interval was o
that character made up Of the foreigl
commerce exhibit for May. TIL
statement discloses the largest volum
of imports and exports for the mont
IN question in the country's history, tn
combined totals reaching the huge sur
Of S2S2,.oS9, ,031. or $34.O17.O00 N excess o
the corresponding month in 1870 whic
held the May record up to this occasion
The excess of exports over imports wa
81, ,5SS.525.
1t is only when one contrasts tn
present condition Of international trad
| with that of the preceding year tina
4 the remarkable change for the bette
becomes apparent The May figure
complete eleven months of the fisca
| year. During this interval exports hav
| exceeded imports by no less than sci.
759.316 Upon three occasions only in tn