The Bridgeport evening farmer., 1911-09-28
WARNING NOTE TO ITALIANS BY FAMOUS WRITER Historian FerrerO States His Views on Policy of Colonial
 Expansion Not Intended as Argument For or Against Occupation
 of Tripoli N
Special from United Press.)


 Rome. Sept 28-The question of whether Tripolf will be worth fighting for is discussed in a statement to the United Press by Guglielmo Ferrero, famous Italian historian whose Great ness and Decline of Rome" ranks as one of the greatest modern works. All that can be done, he said, is to occupy the territory. The statement, he said,, was not intended either as an argument for Or against the occupa- tion of Tripoli, but merely as note of warning to the Italian people at a time when they seem bent, on forcing the government to adopt system of colonial expansion similar to that of France and Germany. The statement is as follows:
 (By Guglie1mo Ferrero.)
 Copyright, 1911, by the United Press.)
 A people is at liberty to choose or not to choose when 1t wants colonies. If it chooses to want them and seeks to take possession of them, there can be probably no other means save to occupy the territory that is still poor, that is still semi-empty, or that for long time has been seni-barbarous, for the purpose of attempting to aug ment its value, investing in it wise ly the capital necessary to bring about its development.
 X A territory already rich, developed and blossoming can only be found in countries of an older civilization. The profit, therefore, of a colonial under taking can only be measured accord ing to the proba bility of the locality. which is to be made the object of the undertaMng, easily and rapidly in- creasing and growing in value.
 But this Is a problem that, in the ma jority of instances, human wisdom has been impotent to solve. There are few things that history can dem onstrate to man, but in the failure of predictions for States and territories 1t can. All surprises are possible as are also all delusions, in the infinite changing of human vicissitudes, the aspirations, the ideals and the needs of humanity.
 Two centuries ago, for example, in the new countries, the hot territories had a greater value than those in a more temperate zone. But a century later, when there came all the grand industries and all the wonderful in- ventions of a modern civilization, the value of the former had declined, while the value of the latter had in- creased.
 A century ago, the immense plains in the Argentine, in which Argentine sows it's cereals and reaps such great masses Of riches, were only a desert and without value. But the overflow of European population caused de- mand for homes and the railroad has converted. in 50 years. the desert into an Eldorado
 All of these merely goes to show that in a colonial policy as in all other things human, much depends upon good fortune, while the element of time is also one of the most ina portant elements Of success The only sure rule then, for a State to follow, if it wishes to inaugurate and caEry out a colonial policy, is to take that which it can without excessive cost and danger and then to wait.
 It is not possible to make a colonial empire bear fruit like vast plain already, fully established, but it is necessary that it be allowed to fruc- tify according to the circumstances following the current of the times, and keeping always we'll in mind that hu- man fortunes are perennially moving and changing. that in the main noth- ing is eternal or stable, not even the power of the State, not even the grea tnesS of the people