Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1911-12-17
TRADE OUTLOOK BRlGHTENS
Spectators Forced to Fall in Behind
Business World.
STEEL NO LONGER RULES
Retail Trade Now Regarded as Re-
liable Barometer of Conditions.
Rich Men Begin Buying.
BY n. ALLOWAY.
Copyright. 1911. II. G. Hopper

NEW YORK. December 16.-Wall street
Isl progressing toward cheerfulness. The
task is not easy. The roadway is trife
rough, not having been much travelled in
times recent Still. in the records of this
week are undoubtable manifestations of
optimistic deposition. Some prices adj
vance. In some stocks there is activity
Commission brokers emit fewer groans
Corporation managers seem dispOsed-at
least temporarily-to suspend croaking
bulletins. In many ways, variously
shown, there is what in Wall street YER
nacular is called Improvement"
In this changing attitude Wall street is
merely consenting to come into contact
with, becoming reflective of what are ex-
panding facts in the actual business con-
ditions of the country. AS has been much
asserted i'm this review. the United States
business situation Is not now and Tor
months past has not been hard times
situation. Down to the present month.
though. there has not been basis for what
now may be with conservatism declared
there has not been till now proof that
not only are bad times behind us but that
good times have genuinely started Signs
have been forecasting this betterment-
and enthusiasts here and there have COM
mitted themselves to optimistic prophecies.
though Wall street declined even to listen
to such theorizing announcement. But
finally there are come into view indisput-
able evidences that the cheerful prophets
have really been within bounds.
Changes in Sentiment.
The line is so narrow as to the prac
tically ndiscoverable between the ex-
tremely hopeful and the utterly hopeless
in Wall street changes in sentiment
hap Of r,n ho wifi a 9
to defy calculation. Wherefore. there is
nothing unique Or strange in this new
mood which begins to prevail upon the
stock exchange If it lasts for as much
as fortnight there ought to be. and
there doubtless will be, thus indicated a
readiness for an old-fashiOned Wall
street revival for the market has drifted
into such technical shape to be no
longer sensitive to professional bear at
tack. All the talent has been upon that
side-the Oppressive sde-for more than
a year. The public. getting out of the
| market even before last New Year time,
has resolutely stayed out ever since.
\ local New York politician. affecting
national consequence, has I'm much hip
podromed interview within the last day
or two proclaimed that 1.-The country is
and is bound to stay at standstill. The
direct purpose of the outburst has to do
with tactional politics; but the tone of
this particular expression happens. I'M
| fortunately, to be fashionable in other
than professional political circles. Men
of affairs, of large affairs. are cited over
and over again as taking blue views OF
| current conditions and even bluer Of
prospects. To be disconsolate has seemed
to become almost a habit.
Gloom Not Justified.
| Yet any fair observer who undertakes
in any broad way a canvass of the coun-
| trys trade situation finds prevailing facts
very different from what so glibly passes
current through the financial world.
| During the present week, for example, |
have personally run across New York
state, visiting most of the important CEN
| tiers. Without exception local conditions
at every point are good conditions. Take
for illustra ton the three leading cities
of interior New Iork-Syracuse. Roches-
ter and Buffalo. Every one of them
prosperous. every one by large percentage
beyond the best records of last year and
still DETER than the year before.
| Years ago, more than a quarter of d
| century ago. there was established the
aphorism that IL the iron and steel bust
| could be counted as good. jay Gould
laid down this rule originally. saying
| that steel goes SO the stock market
Will go. But America has outgrown that
measurement. Railway construction is
no longer the overwhelming industry.
| Indeed, the wide awake observer is like
lier far to realize that there is in the
present situation criterion surer and
much more readily teSted-the criterion
which the local department stores of the
country provide. Good times bad
times cannot be more certainly measured
| than by the way in which the public
| trades for it's domestic uses From this
view point. therefore, what is so clearly
| visible right now in such centers as Buff
| falo, Rochester and Syracuse can be ac-
| cepted for trustworthy guide.
Faith in the People.
At each point the foremost department
stores were found crowded. Yet, said
Donald Dey. head of the Syracuse firm of
Dey Brothers q Co, business appears to
me to be normal. Conditions are sound
and business rrosperous-an if an insti-
tuition like ours may justly be regarded
as a barometer rejecting the publics
buying ability, it is conclusive that the
Influences here are healthful and salts
factory. 1t seems to me that business
men, big and little. are attending to their
own knitting, proceeding along lines as
honestly, as officially. as human being
can. They hear the roar of the theorists
and at times they may be distracted and
even to degree intimidated; but most
business men Judging by those to be met
in this part of the country have faltn
that the good sense OF the people will
ultimately prevail and that business will
TO kick.
This expression from the most impor-
tant merchant in city of the consequence
of Syracuse has significance directly
bearing upon the investment worlds in
terests-Mr. Dey not only attesting local
business activity. noteworthy expansion.
but making IL clear that among repre-
sentative business men at such centerS
there has ceased to be patience with the
political grill and its attendant pessimism.
Had a Good Season.
At Rochester, just as at Syracuse. the
uniform testimony is that business not
only does not lag but H. better than at
corresponding periods Il hitherto has
been. Rufus a. Sibley (active in the
house of Sibley. Lindsay & Curr) sum-
marizes the local situation tersely The
pessmists can find little encouragement
in the Rochester outlook. Our manufac-
lures have had good season. Our No
vember bank clearances We're I per cen,
| ahead of the same month last year. And
in our own business we have had the best
retail trade i'm our history IL is more
diffcult-Shown by our own experience
to secure help in Rochester today than
at any time during our forty-odd years
OF business.
Such statements-and they come from
authorities which locally could not pe
more highly regarded-mean something.
And they do not mean bad times.
4 symposium representing the expert
ences and the views of representative
bankers and business men the country