The Monroe journal., 1911-10-31
WALL STREETS VIEW.
While There May Be Some More
Decline, innocent Cotton is
Not a Ba6 Proposition.

NftishdtiNNAAAS ldNtbI NdS tus
publication ON Wednesday of tn,
census bureau report ON the
amount of cotton ginned to oc,
tober Is. This showed the rec,
ord-breaking total of 7.I40,00t
males as against 5.423,62s bale,
last year and compares with g..
4l7,s94 in 1904, the previous high
record for the period. A great
deal of surprise and considera-
BILE disappointment were express.
ed IN some quarters because OF
the failure of the market Ia
break ON this unquestionably
bearish report. Those who were
expecting such action. however
evidently failed to take into con.
slderation that quotations for tw,
weeks past have been literally
dlscounting report of even lar
ger dimensions than the actual
figures finally showed. and be-
cause of this there naturally en-
sued a heavy covering movement
N which To a considerable extent
the South participated.
Many and varied are the cal
eulationS which cotton interests
are making as result of this
report, bat il Is only fair to point
out that ANY mathematical de-
dlsctlOHS al this time are ant
to lead one far astray. For in
stance the average ginning to
October Is for the past nine years
IS 46.l per cent. If that aver
age should he applied this sea-
son the total indicated Weld
void be l6,50O,0OO bales or more
On the other hand should the
percentage equal the 1909 figure
of approximately 30 land 1863
was a year with many growing
characteristics similar TO those
OF this season.. the total crop
would be only slightly in ex-
cess Of 100000 bales. Inter.
estlng as these conjectures are.
the data available does not per-
mt OF any exact conclusion. As
this Is admittedly an early sea
son the chances are that more
than half of the crop has been
glnned, but at the same time the
tact must not be lost sight of
mat the present crop is not a
premature one. and for this rea.
son II is doubtful if the percent.
age ginned is equal to the pre-.
vious high record. The one fact
that can now no longer be ques-
oloned, and which this latest gov
eminent report settles once and
for all, is that the trade this
year is confronted with an as
snred crop larger than ever be-
fore produced.
An incident of the week was
the publication of Ellison s as.
Innate OF the world s spinners
taklngs of American cotton. This
ne places at 13,300,000 bales pro-
vlded the disturbed conditions in
CHINA are not of long duration.
As Ellison is the recognized Eng
llsh authority on mill consump-
ton, and as his estimate last
year was substantially correct
the trade generally are inclined
TO give heed to this years pre-
dlction. AS matter of fact a
break in the price of commodi- |
" such as cotton from an artifi- |
cally high level long maintain |
ed, accompanied by largely in
creased supplies, always has ma. |
perlally increased consumption.
and there is every reason to be- |
heve, all other conditions being
equal, that the demand this year
by splnners and others who have |
legitimate needs for the staple
VIII greatly exceed that of the
last two years. Indeed, the hea.
Wy buying by spot interests is al.
ready matter of daily occur
renee and it is reasonable to ex-
pecf that these purchases will be
considerably augmented if pri-
ces decline further.
The trouble in China naturally
makes for uneasiness among man
llfacturing interests. but the Of.
feet of the revolution in that
country ON the worlds cotton
goods trade depends entirely np-
aql u! AIaIuu5 lsoutlB pasn a.iR
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ls9luaiS 9ql aL5qM sloLlsrp 9ul
puu !uqSuRqS ioJ s5uNooq iAeau
Su!Hem lI!ls $! I9lseqouBV lusm
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Northern portions of China and
up to the present the trouble has