The Washington herald., 1911-05-15

New York, May 1I-What ever may be
the prospect for business conditions in
the distant future these affairs do not
| seem to be improving at the present time.
| and an impression is gaining ground that
as regards the immediate future they are
likely to become worse before they be-
come better.
Reports from the iron and steel trade
are especially discouraging. business there
after a brief picking up during the
months of January and February having
again fallen pretty nearly to the low level
of last year, and there appear sto be little
chance Of decided improvement in this
quarter until the railroads place orders
for new materials in normal quantity.
The railroad companies for their part
say that they must continue to curtail
expenses wherever possible until they
cease to te ground between the upper
and neither millstones OF decreased gross
earning and increased wages paid to
employees This Is not a very satisfac-
tory answer, and apparently all that can
be done is to wait for time to make a
better reply.
Under such circumstances, Of course,
pessimism revives as to the continuance
of railway and Industrial dividends at
current rates, and an incident that at
tracted much attention during the week
was the reduction from to per cent
in the annual dividend of the Boston and
Maine Railroad Company, one of the
chief subsidiaries of the great New York,
New Haven and Hartford Railroad sys-
tenn.
Business conditions have latterly been
worse in New England than anywhere
else for reasons to which 1t Is unneces-
sary to refer in detail But question
that is beginning to be asked rather
pointedly is as to whether We have heard
the last of railway dividend reductions
before good times shall come again. The
Importance of this question is very con-
siderably mitigated in stock market
sense by the probability that the market
quotation of the stock of more than one
railroad company has already discounted
a dividend reduction.
May Cut Dividend.
The Chicago, Milwaukee and st. Paul
Railroad. for instance. is paying Z per
cent on its common stock, and there has
been much talk in speculative circles
to the effect that this dividend might be
cut to per cent; but considering the
standing and character of the st. Paul
property how much lower could the stock
of the railroad be expected to go even
IL only per cent dividend is paid? There
is more than one present speculator for
the fall in Wall street who remembers
perfectly well that in previous years he
made a good deal Of money "bulling"
Chicago, Milwaukee and st. Paul common
stock when 1t was only per cent
dividend payer and was selling at 1lb.
There are those who apply the same
reasoning to the mooted question Of the
effect Of a. possible reduction in iron and
steel prices. Would not a big cut in these
prices stimulate trade. as 1t has SO often
done in the past. so that any decline In
iron and steel stocks because of such
cut in prices would be short-lived?
But a rather disturbing matter just now
is the utter indifference Of buyers OF iron
and steel commodities. The leading trade
journals lay great weight on this, and
say that there is such state OF overpro-
duction in the trade that 1t Is very doubt
full IL a cut in prices would stimulate
trade to any appreciable extent, what
ever 1t might do later.
Looking at things as they appear on
the surface right at the present moment,
II certainly does seem as IL a longer
period of waiting would have to be gone
through with before matters are ripe
for q business advance.
Our exports of cotton in April were over
6, 900 900, 900 less than they were In April.
1910 and had II not been for enlarged
shipments OF wheat and meats the April
exports would have been below those OF
last year. All this illustrates in a de-
cisive manner the present dependence OF
our country upon exports of cotton Tor
the creation of q favorable foreign trade
balance. and II shows the acute interest
that the country has In the continuance
i A