The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1911-09-15
TAFT'S DEFEAT PREDICTED
FORECAST FROM Ia FOLLETTE'S
HEADQUARTERS
Il Gives a Ala Jority Of Z 7s Eiectora, Votes
to tho Democrats n TAFT Is the Re.
publican Nominee Doubt Expressed
That He Can Carry His Own state.

WASHINGTON. Sept. IA. The defeat Of
President Taft in 1912. in event that he
is renominated. is predicted in state
ment made public to-day al the La Toilette
headquarters in this city. The statement
embraces forecast Of the electoral vote
by States under the new apportionment.
which gives n majorty Of 1875 for the Demo
cratic nominee. This forecast puts those
States which were Republican but he
came Democratic in 1910 in the Demo-
cratic column.
The Democrats get s2s electoral votes
and the Republicans 2O3. II is claimed
some Of the Eastern States back into the
Republican column. these gains are likely
to be Offset by loosses in the middle West
ern States. where the insurgent NOV vement
is strongest. but which did not 90 Demo-
cratic last fall.
Among the States conceded to the DEM
ocratic list next year should President
Taft be AT the head of the Republican
ticket are New York. New Jersey. Ohio,
West Virginia. Massachusetts,. Maine.
Indiana. Connecticut. Colorado. Montana
and Missouri Among the States which
it Ia claimed may go Democratic TO Offset
Republican gains in the Fast are Wash
ington. Oregon. California. Idaho. IL
linois. Kansas. Nebraska. North Dakota
and Wisconsin. The statement continues
in part as follows:
In 1910 the Democrats carried twenty
seven States. OF which twenty -four have
Democratic Governors while twenty-five
States now have a ma jority OF Democrats
Z. ('OnOrogs Rut il he npted tina,
although the standpatters lost some eighty
seats in Congress in the landslide the pro-
gressives doubled their representation in
the lower House
To secure his reelection President Taft
must recover not less than sixty three
| electoral votes from States carried by the
Democrats in 1910 without losing any
votes in the progressive States which then
stayed in the Republican column Can
he do It; Can he get back his native state
of Ohio, Can he develop any strength
left him last year without making CORE
| spending losses in the Vest
| Not counting his own State there are only
| nve States. all on the Atlantic seaboard
where he can expect 20 make any consid-
-rable recovery Maine. Massachusetts,
| Connecticut New Jersey and New York
! But there are nine States in the middle
| West and far West where the revblt agains,
the Payne Aldrich tariff. the Wickershau n
railroad policy. Ballingerism and Lori
merism menace the success OF any standpa,
candidate for any ONCE. These State,
are Wash ington. Oregon. California. Idaho
Illinois. Kansas. Nebraska. North Dakott
and Wisconsin.
Now the number OF electoral votes in the
two groups is nearly equal, and II is to the
" estern group that the President Ia payinl
his energies. He has spent scant attention
To New England. He barely stops in New
York and PENNSYLVANIA. Ohio and Indian,
he does not consider at all. Breathing de
nancc he is going into the "enemy's coun
trv" on another tour OF apology"
Two years ago he apologized for th'
payn.- Aldrich law and now he will apollo
gi2c to thu farmers for removing the pro
t"ctiyc duties on theiV products. through
the Canadian reciprocity law. while h,
maintained the cost of clothing. blanket,
and carpets by his veto Of the La tollett,
wool bill For six weeks he will lay 8sid,
his executive. duties to invite the Wes
TO repudiate the course OF its progressive
representatives in Congress.
The last tour was followed by increased
progressive strength In Congress- and th'
State capitals. Is 1t likely that the voters
have SO changed that the result this tim'
can be other than It was before:
The insurgent statement is evidently
made public with a view to political effec
on the eve OF the President g Western trip