The times dispatch. [volume] (Richmond, Va.) 1903-1914, 1911-12-04

OF the crop for tho season up to Dc
cember L. This report is due to be
announced just before tho opening
OF the market on Friday next. The
/ bear spectators at Memphis and New
Orleans have been selling the general
option list the last thrce days on
estimates that this report will show
between l2,700.00O bales and 1900. 900
bales. against 11,270,0O0 bales In the
last report issued covering the period
TO November II. This Is n very i'm
portant ginning report, because the
annual estimate on the size of the
crop by the government from the Az
ricultural Bureaus reports on the
acreage and condition of the crop is
compiled in conjunction with its
figures, This crop estimate will be an
nounced at p. NJ. on December H.
and the great majority OF the trade is
figuring on II to confirm the popular
estimate that the crop is over 10000
GOO bales. or the equivalent OF 1885,
oeo bales larger than any previous
crop produced.
The total commercial crop last year
of 1-,120.o00 bales was swelled by be.
tween 10000 and 100000 bales, be-
cause this years crop was picked and
ginned and marketed so much earlier
than usual: II appeared In the receipts
during August, the last month of the
Ola crop year. The earliness of the
present Seasons crop may be gather
ed from the fact that over 771,OOO bales
OF the crop were sinned before the
opening of the crop year on Septem-
her !, against about $4,000 to tho
same time last year from over $500
actiH' gins In operation during that
period, against only about $500 dur
Ing the corresponding time last year.
The Government Crop Estimate.
The crop opened UP so much earlier
throughout the entire belt this year.
and the weather conditions were SO
favorable for the rapid picking and
ginning throughout September and Oc-
Itober. and most of November, that It
can safely be said that the crop has
been the earliest In Its general de-
relopment. and in the picking and GIN
nlng also. of any other crop produced
Therefore. II is quite within the range
OF probabilities that the next ginning
reports after that of next Friday will
snow heavy falling off. compared
with the ginning in other big crop
years during the balance of tho sea-
son. Therefore. there is no absolute
saietH OF the trade adhering to any
crop estimates in cxccss of $500, 900
bales on the outside calculation. in
Guiding lintcrs, and it may later turn
out that the crop actually produced
vas muSii SH1dlieI IMAM that total Just
now. however. trade sentiment e. 60
bchrish and excessive crop estimates
are 81 popular throughout tho South
us well as in local trade circles. that
some of the estimates run as high as
100000 bales
therefore. great Importance attaches
10 the size of the crop estimate which
the government will announce through
me Agricultural Bureau. I'm its report
OF December II. In view of tho heavy
loss Il many small farmers, who pro-
duce nearly 50 per cent. of the crop
grown III the South. II would DC a
calamity TO them II the crop estimating
board of the Agricultural Bureau
should make mistake and ovcresti-
mate the yield. In this connection. it
is well TO remember that the ten
dency of most private crop estimators
is 10 overestimate the large crops and
TO underestimate the small crops.