The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1910-04-10
Old FORECASTS or TEE cENSUs.
Eariy Prophets VIVA md Wen TIN tl,s
Ofreh nate DRealmR0.


think tho Superintendent % the cengus. -.
whsn he estimates the population 20 tep
United Statesin the census year 1910 A
sOmsthing between a. OO0.OO0 and a.oD.-
ono. allows hmasf little moro lesway
than prophet with his inside infernA- -
ton need demand. Estimating tire popu- -
Ation Of the United States ought n0t u
bs very dinicult matter ttess days evcn 49,
for an amateur. they say. The birth rate.
death rate. immigration euBgfatiCn amt - -
everything else. II thers u anything eisS -
bsarinG UPON the subject. are all pretty - =
well known year by year since 1900 fcr y -
all or nearly all parts 81 the lowed * ~
States. 30 that estimate made to-day = =
should show figures pretty close 20 ehs iTs.f
results Of the acttist census, perhaps aSNa~'sr
near 100000 or Ne.00D -'f 81. -
One Of the odd and disconcaftFnx ssaas
things about the history % statistics ~ VS.
the way in which the population slfAfp~ sN -
OF century ago estimated che faenss iSsa-f
without the aids that should euaflle thai.sl "
Census Bureau to SOsn4 within n fs~ ..-sstf
Thousands Of actual crs,sna ngmea5 inIn,nssSAa
1919 the editor of Niisa's ffpgtA-F mazda a. ~ e.
detailed e~timats of whEf the ccnnm n1ua -
iseO would show m to tho poPuiatixa- -1san
Of the United stPtea. 10 rpelty had eefsG sals-
little 60 GO on. and he dechnsdio aay just ssse
how he reached h.s conclusionN hue m s.sast
came within lc~s thru s2O,OoO ~ thu UrnstiE ss-s
figures . - ,Gs lif-
He said no had for yesrH surpcssd7 ~.
that the census 20 iszN uoudf HtDyx AZ va
population % about IO.osD.oD H@ guess ,rzset
was a trino over o setOG0 mt tho actukb1 s-s-s
In some details his xucss WIS asionahs, ..~ :,
ngly nsSr. --i-tsA 3
He gave En estims ~ for every Saats -l..sals
aud Territory. and for New England. \ -
Maryis nd and Ohio be- WIS only, shout satsii
$50 out In ssver' e i!ss-s Sitsis~. hss-a
IVES within few hundvds of thu e~tAg ti-as e.
figures. and in none he more .than-sr,-e
about IO.OOO out. He WAL within foeT Go 49,
tho actual census figures in North CaroA. aSL&
linz II was na,nly N thu ugNrsar 6tstus.ai ssas
thai he Eacsssd too high. go. s1A
The Boston Reeorder tried ito had "a, ~. 4
cepsus guessing in IsIS With interesting. o.
results. The editor took HttIe or m 49, ~
count cf immigration which vas then sd
triHing. but he figured out fron The GEN.. Sssg
su~es Of i7SO. is0o ard $50 that popua,toa s,.ls
doubled every tweEty-thres years. A. n
iherr seemed plenty of NOM for exnAn- $50.
sion AMI race suicide had not tkcn hsan. II =
heard OF he concluded that the nereasn-r sa-
would 60 on HI that rate for ~. least sA.Azsfr
century. 90 ---a 49,. a.
Upon this theory he estimated shs ..sta
population for every twenty -three -yeAxR "a a
up to lees He had before hsrn figures ls.aSs
Of the oeasus Of 1910. which showed shout. vuss
7.eso 90 In hAbitAnts. He placed the popu--aas
hatlon OF he1J NJ H.uB.pb. 0a AZ r. ai..i
OOO.OO0 Of 1870 at 5o.O00.COo. OF ,Jee0 90 sr.y
iIs .0noO0O and Of Isa5 AZ 27AOcO.SOl He -
must have BEEN very close to tho ssasrAl an.
figures la Iss3. for the census Of iSSO &lvol "a a
nearly I3,OO0OOO people. lie not EnESs a.
on in 1855. for the census Of isSo showed a, g.
nearly - 2OO.OOO inhabitants ard that 20 =. !.
IS1D a little more than ~. S0o.WD. b'a hs -
vas fully 6.O0o.O0O I'm high IN tsID aadbslsso
IL the colonies. OF which he had noink hns, -
be taken into account. His estimate. for -.
lsRs seems likely at the current rate n - 3 -.
more than 100 oo0.0D too high ~ >. iE6s sfe~4.
The source Of his error lag IN Lhe dar,I 49,
srs Men he made .'h he s"T a MY 'G fSs az
death rate had been steadily decreasing : a
since I'm. when Il was . thonssnd. ByaE 2,
thous ana. The loases OF the civil war al4a .--,,
helped to throw out his calculations arSf -
which he had no thought was INT auencis AL
ent to make up for the checks 10 popul1- -
ton left out 81 account. - ..,s~
There was M ch interest the country -.
over in the results OF the census 81 100. 1s-D
when the population surprised MI hut - ~
ihes" who had studied earlier siatisiics-- u e.
Before The general resuts Of thai cetusaHs =. ~
made known. fhe Albany Plough
hoy IN adc com puiailcn for hat year -.
ard each decennial period to ioiA. 81
The siatistC1An knew that thc birth zcf
rate yet showed no sRn 'ef falling OF -s.f-r
andthat the death rate Nas quite rSpidly,,-iss
decreasing while there was a vast pnoc- -
cupied territory open TO settlers, thOugh Nsstr
Texas ard the r,'Rion beyond the Rcckiesr..- - 7
we're still in the harcs m sfran0er' ana y 90
the fate uf the Oregon cOGnt ~ unCer. go
tain TS- PiOsgt Boo hPd no suspicion -
that the trihng IntIn igrrtion Of the period i-.''
would grow hundreds 81 thousands 8 al 4
annually within the next thirty years. H~ e
was not ~ ssng'irs as the '~i,tor who had a. ~
counted upon the doubling OF the popu-
iRtiOn every twenty-thre~ yecls. how
ever ara be worked upon an elaborate -
plan. for he gives his results not only 49,
IN thousands bait dow TO units. 80 ghas
He nearly 3oO.0OO too high for -
1880. about 10000 too hign for 1890 and
nearly 01.OfO too high FOR 1880 and again -sHo-
sU0O0O too high for 1850. He had counted ~rc-
TOO IN uch upon the birth rate bun ny thiw ( d
tim umi lsrJSIioR had begun 20 be heavy -,
and hts eat tate for 1890 was less than -
10 $50 high. He vas more than J.
I3SO.OO0 90 high for 1870 and m orc than .
S50O. OOO too high for isso. His calcnla- "a
ton Cor lSpO l4.OOcOoO too high and >.
for 1870 nearly rs. $4,000 too high. $50,
Niles u the Rcgssfrr undertook esfi-
mates Of the population for deceur3af
I~rioSls abou, issO and proved a bssieT lNsss
prophet than his contemporaries. No .-.-
was not than quarter of a million. I'll,
out in any census year up to and incllld-
ing IsoO. and in some years he Was within
about ~ 900 OF the census figures - '-'r
Hts calculations were hopelessly wrong =.
for the first Tins TO the 81 $50. -,
ahd thereafter TO the end OF ths century -
he was more and more az variance with
actual census results Like his Fellow ~
statistictans he presumed upon "A continif-
ing high birth rate and upon sie4dy ~.
Iessening Of the death rate, but eNpected -.
no great things of immigration. The
elements which he neglected helancct 80
pretty fairly up 20 legO. hut the havoc OF 81
the civil war and the check ~ tbs hArth, Re
rate set him wrong after that, 90 that -
even the vast immigration ot the l4st
forty yeaEs did not make np The love -,