Evening times-Republican. [volume] (Marshalltown, Iowa) 1890-1923, 1910-05-12
DENIES WHEAT FAMINE
EXPERT BELIEVES INCREASE
WILL EQUAL POPULATION
UNTIL 1850.
IMPROVED FARM AREA TO Z
MEET IMMEDIATE DEMANDS
Department cerealist Pre-
sents Figures to Show Acreage and
Yield Have Kept Pace With Popula-
ton Growth-Low World Reserves
Responsible for High Prices.

nCoP0uSI6IS III suSp asSS~
Washington. May I'm the year
book Of the department of agriculture,
just issued, Mark A. Carleton, cerealist
of the department, has an interesting
discussion Of the question Of the fu-
ture wheat supply of the United States
and, contrary to the opinion which has
frequently been expressed in other
quarters, he figures that the increase
in the wheat yield in this country,
and in the world at large, will keep
pace with the population and the de-
mand, and that up to the time to which
he carried his figures, 1850, there will
be no danger of wheat famine. I'M
portant factors in the problem which
he thus solves are, of course, better
methods Of agriculture, resulting in
la greater yield an acre; a larger de-
mand; and the revival of agriculture
in the older states of the eastern half
1.-THE country.
On the question Of the future wheat
area of the United States, Mr.. Carle-
ton calls attention to Alaska, western
Texas, lands now embraced in Indian
reservations, lands now in semi-arid
condition, but which are to be re-
claimed; lands which are now swamp,
land which are also to be reclaimed,
and, as already noted, expansion or
farm area in the older states. Adding
together the sums secured from the
above named sources, he finds that, by
1850, the increase in farm lands IN
this country will be nearly 30O,OOo,Ooo
acres, making at that time total
farm area of 1,300.000,O00, or about 20
per cent of the total land area.
Rapid Increase Predicted.
The improved farm area has here
tofore been about half the total farm
area, but he thinks will hereafter IN
crease more rapidly than the latter
The present wheat acreage is now
about "A per cent OF the farm area,
slightly less proportion than in 1917.
BY 1850 he thinks the proportion
should reach 6 per cent, as that rate
was attained in 1880 and again in 1891,
and the farm area will hereafter IN
crease less rapidly This has been the
ope.
rabies whicth Mr.. Carleton puts into
his article show the total land area,
the wheat acreage and the percentage
of the total land area in wheat IN
twenty Of the great wheat growing ma
lions of the world. According to these
tables. the total land area in wheat
runs from / per cent in Denmark to
16.5 per cent in Italy. In Spain 1T IS
7.3 per cent, in Servia 7.5, In Roumania
14.5. in France 1913, in Hungary liz.
in Manitoba So in British India 80,
IN Russia 3.9. while in the United
States 1t is "a.
It would require only about AZ per
cent Of the total land area OF the
United States to give S0,00o.0O0 acres
of wheat. Yet Spain, with its prepon-
derance of mountains, is now employ
ing 7.3 per cent, while even Germany,
where there is much waste land, is en-
ploying 35 per cent. In Great Britain,
where there is most intensive cultiva-
ton, wheat is grown on 81 per cent OF
the total area.
I'm England" says Mr.. Carleton. 10
per cent of the land is cultivated. In
| Germany 1877 per cent is arabic. and in
France So per cent. In view or these
| facts, it seems very conservative to
estimate 70 per cent of our total area
as the area in farms, and 40 per cent as
| the improved farm area, in 1850"
Increase Of QUO BUSHELS.
| Since 1866. the wheat yield of the
! United States has increased 80 bush
| els, and on the basis of the present
average Of 100000 acres, is already
giving an increase in production OF
74,241 900 bushels above what it would
be at the rate prevailing forty years
ago. At the same rate of increase, the
added yield an acre by 1850 would be
4 1-5 bushels.
| This increase in acre yields" Mr.
Carleton notes, goes on much more
rapidly each decade, as there is more
rapid diffusion of knowledge of i'm
proved methods of culture and seed Sc
| lection, use of better varieties, etc
All farming will also become more in
tensive. Six bushels of actual increase
IN acre yields by 1850, or about twenty
bushels an acre, estimated for 1850
is, therefore, surely a safe estimate
Twenty bushels an acre on a basis OF
1000 900 acres, estimated for 1850, will
furnish 1000, 100000 bushels.
IN view of the total land area de-
voted to wheat in foreign countries, s
or even 10 per cent OF the total area
does not seem unreasonable for tht
United States, and yet it would NEAR
the planting of 15O,0O0,000 to 100000.
900 acres in wheat. Also, twenty
bushels an acre in yield is still much
below what is catually being obtained
even now in places in Europe. In Ger
many, where the yield has increased
six bushels since 1897, it was in 800
2S4 bushels. In Great Britain it il
1926, with an increase of 2.5 bushels
ince 1897 AT least twenty-five bush
els an acre should, therefore be at
tanned in this country, which, on a ba
sis of 15O,000,O00 acres. would furnish
$3.50 900 900 bushels, and on a basis o
100 10000 acres, 4,750,o0O,00O bush
els
Seven Bushels in 1850.
The per capita home consumption o