The farmer and mechanic. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 18??-19??, 1910-09-06
COTTON

New York, Aug. 31-The coming
year. in our opinion. offers q cotton
producers an opportunity which IS per
maps not fully appreciated. Hence
the following:
Last season We realized the crop
10 be a very short one, and hfteen
cents appeared a reasonable figure to
US under the circumstances. That
price, We may say, was maintained
against the combined efforts of the
entire world. and. indeed, the only
reason the price did not rule higher
Has the fact that the crop then avail
able followed the longest one on rec
ord-14,00 O00 bales. accordingly
there were then very large visible and
invisible stocks in spinners' hands. as
well as a large supply OF manufactured
goods on s~pinners', jobaers' and re-
tailers' shelves.
It would have been Impossible TO
maintain last seasons price If that
price had not been justified in every
particular. All interests fought the
advance strongly, so that this season
finds spinners, jobbers and retailers
with the smaller supplies known since
the war. In other words, the situa-
ton III this respect is exactly oppo-
site from last year at the same date.
and there is absolutely no reserve
stock to fall back on to supply any
shortage that may develop.
The world would require n supply
of 100000 bales minimum this
coming season to hold stocks for his
strained han they occupy today. A
crop of 12,500,O00 bales would be
given away if sold under Ice. The
world would have to take it all at even
higher prices if it were held for
same.
And III crop may we expect7
Last year the States, inclusive OF
Texas and Oklahoma, produced about
1900, 600 bales. and there is no rea-
son to expect a larger yield from the
same States this season. especially
when the crop is three weeks late. In
fact any increase must be extremely
small, and on the contrary there is a
strong probability that instead Of an
increase there will be a decrease
Texas and Oklahoma certainly do not
indicate over 1000, 600, and these
figures also are more likely 10 be
reduced than raised. Therefore, the
total yield indicated is certainly not
more than from 1850, 600 to H.
100000 bales.
Now at the opening this year the
trade is lowering over the marketable
a vulture, hoping that the producer
will rush to market his crop as he
has in seasons past. even il he can
get only 13c. for it. In our judg-
ment, those who follow such a policy
will not only be robbing themselves
liz VIII NC II w. IL W
p%ortunity of a lifetime; and they viii
also be destroying the value of their
neighbours property.
It is a matter of little concern to
us that our efforts to establish a fair
price for cotton, according to the
law of supply and demand, were
neither realized nor appreciated by
those interested last season. That is
now past history, but to allow this
crop to rush to market without first
,, -;~ tID rrn1ncnJc of tina nnCfJU
mistakes they may make and the ad-
vantage they stand to realize with
wisdom would not be just to the cause
we espouse.
Nor do we forget the ultimate con-
sumer. He does not believe it, but
it is true, that the price OF ra" cot
ton affects him but little. Prices re-
manned virtually unchanged to him
last year. in the face Of the
recorded on the cotton exchange, and
there is every reason to believe that
the actual consumption last year was
larger than the year previous. VIA
we must adjust ourselves to is a
gradual yearly increase in price to sup
ply new industries and a growing
population, the world over. But this
increase will make itself felt gradual
~ IN retail prices. Cotton could ad-
vance enormously before the appre-
citation would be felt by the ultimate
consumer. Most of the cost of the
finished product bought by the uit1-
mate IS accounted for in the
many and varied processes of manu-
facture. transshipments and rehand-
ling.
What rules the producer, though, Is
not the cost Of manufacture, but the
law of demand and supply, and TO
him we say that. in our belief, a crop
of 1880, 900 bales would readily be
consumed this season at twenty cents.
z. HAYNE,
Il - SCALES