The Washington herald. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1906-1939, 1910-12-25
CENSUS SUGGESTS
PROBLEMS BEARING
ON OUR PROSPERITY

When the great lnuuStfldl bOOinS OF
1901 and 1906 had reachd a stage Of
exaltation which made the uitra-conserv-
atives hint that perhaps We were going
ahead too fast, a familiar Wall street
answer was that the country's rapid add
vance in population and resources pro-
vided for everything The argument was
revived in los, when it was urged that IT
was impossible for any prolonged relaxa-
/ ton 10 occur in the e0untry's forward
movement. The argument was on each
| occasion fundamentally sound There
was one flaw in the reasoning, which the
sequel 10 each OF the three years in cues
/ ton showed. IL was that financial eE-
pansion and industrial exploitation may
run beyond the capacities even OF a very
! real increase in population and resources.
and that such a thing will happen when
credit is easily obtained when values
are shifting and when speculative ideas
/ get a hold on the public mind. Neverthe-
/ less, the increase in the American com
muntys financial and industrial power
was bound TO be affected by It's pro-
dgious growth Ia population. These as
| poets of the question gave distinct
| financial interest TO the complete report
! lust published by the Census Bureau, on
/ the countrys population.
| What the figures show is. that in the
| ten years from 1860 90 1910. the population
/ has Increased i6l45.000. as compared with
! an increase Of 1A21G.O80 in the ten years
| from 1880 20 1900. and of y, 900 in me
| ten years from 1850 to 1880. The actual
numerical addition TO cur continental
| community. then. has been larger In the
past ten years than in any previous dec
| fr,a. IS relative
/ ratio of increase The gain OF 1910 over
1900 has been 9Dg per cent. in The decade
before il. il was 227 per cent. two dec
AIDES ago, il was 2l9 per cent, and be-
/ tween 1870 and 1880 there was an increase
/ of 301 per cent
/ steady BoOm the Inference.
! If one we're 10 imagine community. in
| Creasing in population al so extraordinary
rate, being seryel by the same plants
and enterprises as had served il a decade
before. the inference of a continuous
/ boon in the markets for products and
| shares of such enterprises would be un-
| avoldable But naturally, this does not
and cannot happen unless in natural
/ MONOPOLY with complete control OF prices
/ Iron produced iu the United states was
/ 100000 tons in lSS9. 1850 900 IN 1893 and
4 q. eco Coz i'm 1900 our cotton mills oper-
ated 1900 ea spindies in 1889 lN@oodo ~
/ ISg4. and y 001ud0 in 1879 All this meant
/ that production was expanding al CON
sideraby more rapid rate than popuia-
i ton, and IL opened 40 least the possibility
/ that increase In production would on oeca-
/ sion be faster than increase IN consuming
4 power
! This Is quite obviously what happened
/ in alienation. however, with years when
/ consuming power would develop faster
/ than PRODUCTION Indeed, the argument
/ from the Increase IA population, mat re-
/ action ia the pace Of financial boohiiiiH
/ was impossible. igacred somewhat halNtly
I the fact that the DeriOi OF the ~ per cent
/ increase ia our people, between 1917 dhu
/ 1850. was marked not only by the slea,
1 boom of 1871 and 1872, but by the panic of
1873 and the prolonged depression IRON
/ then 10 1875 An other decades between
the successive census enumeration have a
/ similar story TO tell
PopuIace and Prosperity.
Granting all this. there are two inter
esting questions left-the first what u.s.
/ then. the real bearing OF our rapid
+ growth i'm population or the general
problem Of prosperity; the second more
narrow in It's scope, how do the census
4 figures bear on the question of the
country's consuming so much OF its own
/ agricultural output that il will cease 10
bc great agricultural exporter The
! answer to the first is easy. Progressive
] development In the counrys Industrial
/ resources and financial power is insured
} bv this increase In population; but not
because OF the mere fact OF increase.
I Turkey ur China might increase more
( than 80 per cent I'm "A decade and be
/ worse of than before. because of lack Of
Industrial opportunity for the increased
/ population and lack of energetic initia-
! tive in the population itself At a point.
/ the old 'Malthusian law" Of pressure of
population on means OF subsistence
would IN such case begin 10 operate. on
/ the other hand. France. whose popUla-
/ ton hardly changes from year TO year.
/ is immensely prosperous. because though
/ It's new opportunities are small they are
/ sufficient. and the people are busy in
making use Of them, The United States
/ has the happy combination Of a field Of
/ Industrial opportunity only partly opened
/ up, and people alert and eager to de-
! veiop IT, To such country rapid in
crease in population Is a sure key TO
/ growing financial and industrial prestige
POpuIace and Crops.
/ But have we outgroWn our capacity FOR
agricultural production large enough "a
| feed and clothe this increasing popula-
| ton and still sustain the export trade
| On account Of harvest. yicissitudes. the
/ fairest statistical test is TO take the aver
age production in the FIVE years before
/ each census This is the result.
/ Wheat Corn. Cotton
/ bushels bushels bales
/ l9o5lelo. .......... e2OOOO 2a6ODGN I2lDOr
/ 1895 1907. .......... 5BGDO0 2CS 10000 90OO
/ For wheat the increase has been N Der
cent, corn g per cent. and cotton y J..
( per cent. As the increase in population
was 200 per cent during the decade, out
| put Of agricultural products-eveu Of cot
! ton-has obviously increased faster than
population If our export trade has not
| been maintained, il must have occurred
! for one or both Of two other reasons
/ Either the average annual consumption
/ of grain OF cotton per inhabitant has
/ also been increasing, or else we have
allowed ourselves 10 be misled by the
/ export trade of years when a bad haT-
/ vest season spoiled the average. These
| are considerations a conclusive study
/ Of which would make another story.