The daily sentinel., 1910-10-19

An interesting congressional fore
cast has just been compiled by the
political editors and starf of Success
Magazine. 1t was not based on a
straw vote bur on careful estimate
gathered from conservative authori-
ties throughout the country.
1t is interesting to note that the
forecast gives all three congressman
from Colorado to the democrats, and
the total congressional representa-
tion will be an even break with both
parties.
The forecast says in part:
The next House of Representative
will be almost exactly in even bal
anCe. The probabilities are slightly
in favor of.a republican majority OF
two or three. but 1t is impossible to
predict with certainty at this writing
which of the two parties will organize
the House
There will be a large increase in
the democratic membership, but there
will be no democratic Landslide"
The explanation of this rather un-
expected result appears to be that
the progressive wing of the republi-
can rarty has come into power at the
primaries in very large proportion
VI NA' lNl'hblANtI iAnAll lNNSs NHllt III
many Of the districts where the
stand-pat element retains control of
the republican machine, the normal
republican pluralities are so large
that the stand-pat candidates are like
ly to succeed, although by greatly re-
duced majorities. Both wings of the
party are now diligently engaged in
their historic occupation of "burying
the hatchet." =,.
In other words, the heretofore gem
orally expected democratic success in
the closer districts of the country has
been put in jeopardy by the nomina-
ton of more or less popular insurg-
ent republican candidates. and infor-
nation received by us indicates that
there will be little republican bolting
in such districts.
This in brief Is the result of the
exhaustive investigation of local poll
tical conditions just made by Success
Magazine among the membership of
its Auxiliary Editorial Board of Life
Subscribers. Nearly fifteen thousand
out of the twenty-five thousand mem
bers have instantly responded to our
requests for this information in a
| clear, specific, frank and most inter
| esting manner and it is impossible
to doubt the conclusions reached.
The extraordinary closeness of this
coming contest is shown by our pre-
| diction that 16S districts will certain
| ly be represented by democrats, and
81 more will probably be democratic,
giving a total reasonably sure demo-
cratic members of 1S9; while the re-
! publican party will certainly elect
| 60 members and will probably elect
| 80 more, giving a reasonably sure
total of 1S9-eXactly the same num-
| bert
There are thirteen districts in the
| country in which there is so even a
| balance of probabilities that we can
not possibly predict the result, with
out resorting to mere guess work.
These thirteen districts, in which the
balance of power of the next House
will probably be settled. are the fol-
| lowing:
The 10th (Boston) District of
Massachusetts. now represented by a
democrat (O'Connell), who won the
| last election by 4 votes only out of
35, 900 cast.
The 23rd (Albany) District of New
York, now represented by a republi-
can (Southwick). who won the last
election by 5S5 votes out of $4,000
cast.
The End New Jersey District, now
represented by a republican Gard
ner), who won the last election by
400 votes out of As, 900 cast.
The 9Th Indiana District, now rep
resented by republican (Bernard)
who won the last election by 100
votes out of 1000 cast.
The 7th Indiana District, now rev
resented by a democrat (Korblyl
who won the last election by only $50
votes out of the 10000 cast.
The 9th Indiana District, now rep
resented by democrat (Rauch)
who won the last election. by 1900
votes out of SO, 900 cast.
The 1st Michigan District, now rep
resented by a republican (Denby),
who won the last election by 5000
votes out OF 54 900 cast, but who will
have very hard fight for reelection.
The 1st Iowa District. now repre-
scented by a republican (Kennedy),
who won the last election by 1900
votes out of $4,000 cast.
The End Iowa District. now repre-
sented by a republican (Dawson),
who won the last electio nby 1900
votes out of 45,0 900 case.
Ine btn iowa lllSlTlCl, now repre-
sented by a republican (KendalD,
who won the last election by less than
| 800 votes out of $4,000 cast.
The 5th North Caroline District,
now represented by a republican
| (Morehead), who won the last cleo
| tion by less than 200 votes out of
| 50 900 cast.
The Sth North Carolina District,
| npw raDresepted by a republican
| (Cowles) who won the last election
/ = 80. -...L nnA casL