The Washington times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1902-1939, 1910-11-06

ms ffepuDlcan opponent, heightened 10
to in the Wall Street betting ring at
one time during the last week. and at
the same time even money was wagered
on Mr. Dix carrying the State OF New
York by plurality Of 10000 votes.
1t is fairly typica; of the character Of
Wall sireet trading that as the odds
heightened, stocks advanced. and as
they shortened prices became irregular
Speculative Wall Street was betting on
the outcome Of the election in the stock
market.
OF course, odds Of 20 I on the main
result, or even money on a plurality Of
100000 votes. is about as near sure
thing in the way Of betting, as one
often encounters, and in consequence II
would appear that speculative Wall
Street has already elected Nj Dix gov
ernor Of the Empire State. This refer
ence to betting odds may not seem
wholly 6ignifled in a review OF one OF
the worlds greatest security markets.
but it is necessary 10 make it in order
TO get some idea Of the character Of the
market and some line on speculative
sentiment. and also. If possible. to de-
termine the future course OF prices.
Discounting the Election.
Among the rank and dIe in brokers'
offices one hears that the market viii
boom on Dix's election" The reasoning
is clear enough, it having been incul-
Gated in the speculative mind that
vote for MIR. Stimson is a vote for Mr..
Roosevelt, and that the defeat Of Mr..
Roosevelt constitutes a bull argument.
OF course, we all viii know more
about this matter a week hence, but It
seems 20 me, some how, as though there
was flaw in the reasoning In the
first place, Wall Street has centered all
its attention on New York state, and
seems to have disregarded entirely The
possibility Of an overthrow Of the Re
publican majority in the House Of Rep
resentatives, which is revolutionary
enough, II one judges these things by the
past. TO occasion some hesitation on the
part Of investors and business men
am not arguing that a Democratic
victory in the Congressional elections
constitutes bear argument, which will
be reflected Immediately upon stock
prices, but II is quite TCtiCcable that
the enthusiastic discountIlg Of Mr. DlO's
election in stock prices, which has
taken place recently, has not found any
! response in that other division Of the
market which more accurately reflects
| the sentiment Of the investors In
stead Of advancing, investment bonds
have hattened out They have failed
! entirely TO sustain the gratifying i'm
! prOvement noted a few weeks ago.
D Speculative bonds have participated 70
some extent In the advance Of specula-
/ tive stock, but strict investment issues
I have again turned dull, and they have
been sold in recent days at cOnces-
! slons in prices.
Bonds Again Decline.
Now. Of course. it may be that the
/ fattening out Of the investment market
/ can be traced in part 10 influences
/ other than the prospect Of an over
throw Of the Republican majority Fl
/ Congress. The money market and the
| credit situation, for instance, are not
In a position to sustain a very heavy
pressure. and persons who bought bonds
! a few weeks ago, may be selling now,
because they anticipate developments
which viii make their money more val
liable to them If employed in loans.
However, when one recalls how seri-
ously capital abhOrs a change, and the
timidity Of business men in the past
! Ol OCNeLS4bAlS VI pDAAN4Cdl hpl4UdNdA5H II
does not seem unlikely that the invest
ment market today is rejecting in its
hesitation - some Of the uncertainty
which has ever, on former occasions,
characterized such an event as the
overthrow of the party in power.
1t is not impossible, therefore. that
Wall Street may not witness q post
election boom. Speculative markets
generally anticipate events of this char
acter, anC speculative Wall Street,
which has been treating the election
as a betting event, appears 10 have
discounted very much, IL not all, Of
any sentimental benefit arising out OF
Mr.. DiX's election. The betting odds
have shown him TO have been elected
already; why then should the specula-
tive market advance after teh event
It is surely only upon the assumption
that the public Will rush in and take
the stocks of the hands OF the manipu-
lators, at these prices. As yet, the pub
! lie has shown very little response TO
the upbidding Of stocks, and, as already
pointed out, the investment market has
petered away. Is such an event as
the overthrow of the Republican party
in New York. OF in the country, calcu-
the public and the investor into the Sc
curity market as free buyer?
Speculation Less Attractive.
l nc dnAltAg VI q tlSOll 10 QtlelIltue
that question, involves. to a large ex-
tent. his ability to forecast the course
of the stock market in the near future.
It is an interesting riddle. Il win eer-
tainly not be long, after the passing
of the election, before Wall Street viii
be brought back to Q consideration OF
other market problems. OF that there
can be no doubt, and # is due to this
that one now finds many persons pre-
dieting that stock market boom, II
the clever mantpulatOrS are able to en-
Eineer one on such an event as a sweep
ing Democratic victory, will be a short
lived affair
As repeatedly stated in this column
there has been a sound basis for the
recovery in prices. Abundant crop:
assured the continuance of a large vol
ume of business; Hquida ton had ceased
and stocks, measured by their income
yield, were cheap because they netteC
more than the prevailing interest rates
These were conditions which made pur
chases attractive.
But with the rapid and extensive ad
vance in prices, that has taken plac,
/ lost much Of their aJtracUVeness FOL
prudent spectators. There is less mar
gin for a future swing upward thai
there was, and really, when one con
siders all the uncertainties Of the fu
ture, which the speculative elemen
seems to have overlooked, for the tim
being, the thought occurs that stock
viewed solely as a speculative PROPOSE
/ ton have advanced about as far a