Bisbee daily review., 1910-09-18
INCREASE DUE
 ID THE OUTPUT
 0F REF|NER|Es
Eleven Million Pounds Excess Last Month Not All the Re- suit of Operations at the Mines, says Walker.
lBy Geo. L. Walker.l

tBy Geo. L. Walker.)
 The figures presented by the Cop per Producers association for Aug ust were hardly up to to bullish ex. pectations. Production showed an increase of approximately 1l.o00 .00G pounds. It must be remembered however. that this does not mean mine production but rather the out put Of the refneries. During July there was a forced curtailment of refinery production, amounting to 10,O00.000 pounds or more, due to excessively hot weather, which made continuous operation of melting and casting furnaces impraoticabIe. In August, however, weather conditions were better. and the raw copper and cathodes, which had gone on accum- ulating in the refineries during July. were converted into shapes ready for delivery, thus becoming visible sup plies. Total deliveries were 129,- 563,G5i pounds. the largest since January; and domestic deliveries were e 531,271 pounds. bringing the average monthly deliveries so far this year up to about G5.000. .00G pounds. The American surplus de- creased 1.75s 4S3 pounds. and the foreign visible supply 3,s79.6s pounds, resulting in an actual re duction of 5.639 113 pounds during the month in the worlds surplus.
 The effect of the mine curtail- ment policy. inaugurated a month or two ago. is not reflected at all in the figures published this week by the Copper Producers association. It will begin to show in the state ment to be published next month, and still more strongly in the Nov ember figures. The heavy general buying which followed the publi- cation of the July figures is rebect- ed only slightly in the August sum- mary. as practically all of the cop per then taken by consumers was for delivery during September, October and November The figures for September, which will be given out Oct. s, should show a considerable decrease in the American surplus, and the succeeding statement for
 
 decidedly improve the statistical pos ition of the metal.
 By way of comparison it may be mentioned that while in August 1909, the worlds surplus increased 3s,71e.4s3 pounds, in the correspond ing month this year there was decrease of 5,639,113 pounds, an improvement to the extent of over 42, 1000, 900 pounrGs All these figures tend to confirm my repeated state ments that the turn for the better in the metal situation occurred sev- eral months ago. Mine and smeIter production is now being curtailed and consumption is steadily incress- ing. Within a few months there should be a heavy reduction in the worlds total surplus. metal prices should advance, and the prospect is favorable that the mines. producing at their full capacity viii not be able to more than supply the con supmtion demand next year
 I figure that the worlds present surplus does not exceed two months consumption requirements Con supmtion is now exceeding 1.S00.000 pounds monthly, which is equal to the present total productive capac- ity of the worlds mines. Of the 3s7 .29e,925 pounds existing worlds surplus, not over 300 100000 pounds could possibly be made to disap- pear by advancing prices, as the great volume of operations will here after necessitate a surplus of at least 1o6,0o0.000 pounds in process of accumulation at refneries and other shipping points, in warehouses to supply sudden incerases n de- mand. etc
 or course the Unted States norm ally the greatest copper consum- ng country, and should there be any considerable further business depres- sion here, it will tend to prolcng the existence of an abnormal worlds surplus. On the other hand, when political financial and business con- diticns reach that point of readjust' ment where the financing Of new en- terprises can be resumed, ths coun- try's consumpton should quckly ad- canoe to S0.000,000 pounds monthly. Meanwhile, we are consuming more copper in this country than ever be- fore. and foreign consumption is in- creasing at an almost unprecedented rate. Taken all together the out look for the metal situation is grow ing brighter all the time. Ifeel con- fident that, notwithstanding the new mines which will soon become factors in the situation, copper consumption during, the next three or four years will exceed production. After this period in winch the output will con tinue to increase rapidly. there Is every reason to believe fhat there will be a very decided halt in the growth of production, and we shall again see copper sell at sensstionally high prices.
 Copper share prices have ceased to decline, and the tendency now seems to be slightly toward improvement The market is so duh and narrow that speculative operations have been entirely discouraged What little bus mess there is represents the aver aging of accounts by a few specula- tive investors who bought stocks at