Los Angeles herald., 1910-08-12
JOHNSON VICTORY
IS NOW ASSURED
Rest of Ticket in Chaotic Condi-
tionIs Result Shown by a
Careful Survey
STEPHENS Is A SURE WINNER
Macarthur, Democrat, Has Best
of Fight in Julius Kahn'S
Congressional District
STEPHENS is A SURE WINNER
Especial to The Herald

SAN FRANCISCO, Aug. 11.-After a
tour covering every district of the
state, with several weeks devoted to
a special study of the political condi-
tlons in the southern group of coun-
ties, The Herald correspondent has
been enabled to compile a forecast that
will stand the test of the balloting at
the primary on August 16. The predic-
tions here made are based upon a
strictly non-partisan analysis of condi-
tions, with the utilization of every
available source of information as to
the attitude of Republican voters in
the various districts.
Hiram Johnson will win the Republi-
can nomination for governor beyond a
doubt. His lead in Southern California
will more than overcome the heavy
plurality that is conceded to Curry in
the bay counties, and he will run ahead
of Curry in virtually every central and
northern county with the exception of
San Francisco and Alameda. Johnson
will come to the Tehachapi with a plu-
rality of $4,000 to $4,000, and viii hold
Curry even in the rest of the state.
sTANToN's BOOM
One of the surprises of the Southern
California situation on the eve of the
primaries is the weakness of the Stan
ton following. Early in the contest 1t
was believed by political forecasters
that Stanton, on the strength of his
being the only Southern Californian in
the running, would poll a vote that
would make him a dangerous factor,
despite the poor showing he was eX-
pected to make in the rest of the state.
AS a matter of fact, Stanton's boom
has made no headway since his return
to Los Angeles after his automobile
tour of the north, and he will lose his
own county to Johnson. The claim of
the Curry and Anderson managers that
Stanton will draw his votes mainly
from Johnson is ridiculous. Stanton
is regarded as an organization main,
and the votes that he will receive
would not go to johnson under any
conditions.
Anderson's campaign has collapsed
utterly, and while the machine seems
likely to stand by him Loyalty to the
end his candidacy will serve no other
purpose than to take enough votes from
Cnrry to assure Johnson's nomination.
Anderson's strength in the southern
group of counties is insignificant, and
in the Republican strongholds around
San Francisco bay he will not receive
above 20 per cent Of the vote.
JOHNsoN's VICTORY
With Stanton disputing the organiza-
Tehachapi, and Anderson cutting into
Curry's vote throughout the central
and northern counties, victory for Hi
ram Johnson, the Roosevelt
nominee for governor, is a foregone
conclusion.
With respect to candidates below the
office of governor, conditions in all
parts of the state are chaotic. Few vot-
ers could tell off-hand the factional
Affiliations of any candidate, and the
contest, therefore, resolves itself into a
question of personal popularity.
On the lieutenant governorship, the
betting in San Francisco is even as
between Keesling, the local candidate,
and Dick Ferris of Los Angeles. 1t is
apparent that both Ferris and Wallace
will run far ahead of Keesling. While
the latter being the only northern can
didate for the place, will poll a heavy
vote in this section, he will not draw
the support of a corporaPs guard in the
southern counties. On the other hand,
Wallace and Ferris, while running well
in their home district, will show uni
form strength throughout the central
and northern counties-the former be-
cause he is Johnson's running mate
and the latter because he will be ac-
corded the support of a majority of
the Curry followers. Farmer, the other
Los Angeles candidate, who is associ-
ated with Anderson, is scarcely heard
of above the Tehachapi wallace, with
the Lincoln-Roosevelt vote, should win
handily.
It is virtually impossible to forecast
the vote on the United States senator
ship. Works has the advantage of haV-
ing the Lincoln Roosevelt support in
tact, but it is not yet apparent which
way the organization votes will go
whether to Meserve or Spalding. The
trend appears to be toward the latter.
The defeat of three standpat con-
gressmen may be predicted with GER
tainty. Investigations in Los Angeles
county lead to the belief that Stephens,
Lincoln Roosevelt candidate in the
Seventh district, will win by an over
whelming plurality over McLachlan.
Kent, Lincoln Roosevelt candidate in
the Second, seems certain of victory
over McKinlay by a wide margin. In
the Fourth district, walter Macarthur
is assured the Democratic nomination,
adm undoubtedly will defeat JULIUS
Kahn, the Republican incumbent
Baked in it's attempt to hand over to
Anderson the Republican nomination
for governor, the Southern Pacific ma
chine is bending every energy toward
capturing a majority of the legislators
and tying the hands of Johnson, besides
electing a United States senator OF its
own choice, regardless of the popular
vote recorded August 16.
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