The Washington herald. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1906-1939, 1910-12-05


New York. Dec. 4.-Th6 present Gullness
or the speculative side OF Wall street
cannot fairly be attributed 10 the warn
ing that James J. Hill recently uttered
on the future OF American trade. Specu-
lators would ascribe the condition wholly
and directly TO the talk that Mr.. Hill is
said 10 have given and since modified
in part and repudiated in part But there
are two facts that cause those who watch
the market and are concerned in the
trade OF the country TO look for other
and more substantial causes.
Not "A Recent Condition.
The dullness OF the market was easily
percepuble for several weeks before the
interview with Mr.. Hill appeared on the
subject, and the market. already sensitive
and tender TO an unusual degree. did go
on point or two. But the general tone
OF the street has been much the same
during the past week as il has been for
several weeks previously. There Is not
sufiic!ent contrast In the condition OF the
market on the days Immediately proceed
Ing and those Immediately following the
haputed cause to Justify the conclusion
or TO make the declaration OF thar side Of
The market very convincing.
Another fact is that this cause OF the
depression. so far as II exists, is nut for
ward only by the spectators. The con-
servative bankers OF New York do not
ascribe the condition 10 Mr.. Hill either
directly or indirectly. This side Of the
financial interests has seen MANY causes
cooperating to bring about the condi-
tons that exist. Fundamentally there
mas oeeh Tor some time an absence OF pub
lie interest in the Wall street market.
Whether this can be attributed 10 the
election or 10 the tariff, or both. is a
matter OF varied opinion.
Few Stocks Active Lately.
Wall streets transactions for A long
time have been concentrated upon only
few stocks. while the great list has
received very little attention from specu-
lators, The trading in these stocks and
the effects OF liquidation have combined
with a great many minor contributory
causes TO bring about the present state
OF the market The Federal suit against
the sugar trust. the poor showing that
railroads have made and the bear oper-
atoms that have been most apparent are
among the lesser influences that have
helped produce the effects now noted
The results have been cumulative and
the revolution OF the many forces is
seen IN the present condition Of trade.
Such Is the general opinion OF the
banker and the conservative class.
II was one OF those condolences that
often happen on the stock market that
the general review of trade conditions
given out by Mr.. Hill should have ap-
peared at that stage of the developments.
IL was tangible feature that served 70
MI the gap IN the way OF attributable
causes that might be accepted, and II
has been widely circulated.
Spectators Not Active.
The Spectator hnds little place In the
market just now. He is among the spec
tators. and the investor is doing all the
business that is being transacted. Stocks
bought now will be carried for some
time, and when handled in this way are
certain 70 attract the conservative IN.
weston. But marginal sales are few
even at or per cent margin. and thar
element Is practically out of the market.
Outlook for Improvement.
But, on the other hand. # is durins
such periods Of trade as now exist thai
the foundations OF future activity are
laid. The greatest safety and assuranc,
Tor the recovery Of trade rs the easing o,
money The warehouses Of the country
are now far from being stocked with
manufactured goods, which makes II
positively certain that trade will resnop5
very quickly and very positively to what.
ever widespread influences Will encourage
the investment of idle money That Is an
essential point of difference between IN,
present state Of tho market and yer,
many that have been known within verI
recent times. Not so very long ago trad.
depression came Unexpectedly upon man.
uracturers who We're carrying enormou,
stocks OF goods, and Il was months he
fore these were worked off TO supply tn,
renewed demand. That fact and the com
parative abundance OF money, as showr
by bank statements, are the two ereat
factors that cause the feeling that is 5,
noticeable among the complacent bankers
Legislation Probably Not Harmful.
Doubtless the country Is waiting fol
such legislation as Congress win transact
at the coming short session. There Is
however, no apprehension as TO the ma
ture or II, and the reticence that tn,
members Of the political world maintain
over what may or may not be done /.
read as indicating that any action Con.
gress may take viii be comparatively
innocuous 70 trade. Easy money anC
an increasing business IN steel, though
the plants have been running at only
about 80 per cent OF their capacity foi
some months. are among the reassurinE
features that have come up during the
week. Nor is it 10 be forgotten that the
size Of the home market is great enough
70 assure a volume Of trade that IN Itself
is guarantee against condition ir
which the calamity bowler has been Joy.
ously reveling for some time past.