The copper era., 1910-10-14
The Business Outlook.

l most interesting ot the whole twelve mouth period. Political uncertainty is still holding up trade ventures, and indecision is reflected in many quar- ters that are ordinarily active at this time. But an offsetting influence which is bound to become more influential as the season advances is the certainty of great corn crop perhaps the largest ever harvested and a cotton crop at least equal to crop production, therefore, is likely to reach an unusually high valuation.
 Within the next three months various important financial operations that have been held back by the peculiar plications incident to the prolonged liquidation in securities and the unsettlement in general busi- ness, will be put through. Many of the railroads are in need of funds, and although the disposition still is to borrow as little as possible. pend ing more settled developments, some l financing will, in all probability, have to be arranged for in the near future if the important systems are to equip themselves to handle the larger busi- ness which will offer later on. It may be doubted, however, whether these requirements can be fully satisfied through the facilities of the short term loan market.
 ] Fortunately for the banks, specula- tion is virtually at a standstill every where. The general public is not in the mood for it, even if the banks would provide the funds with which to finance speculative operations at this time. The figures filed with the Comptroller of the Currency in re- sponse to the call for statement of condition as of September first last, show that progress has been made in some sections toward reducing the loan account that was such a trouble some factor to deal with few weeks reported by many states are still sufficiently below those shown at the corresponding date last year to in- dicate that deposits are everywhere pretty actively employed in spite of the undeniable falling off in general business. That suggests a fairly active money market during the baIarce of the year, for the banks are now entering upon period when loanable funds usually bring very good returns.
 We look for no sensational advance in rates, but for a good, healthy market, with supply of commercial paper somewhat in excess. of demand. Europe, in way, holds the key to the situa tion in the United States, so far as the money market is concerned, because of the altogether phenomenal showing of our foreign trade. The whole story is told in the fact that for the first time since 1895, for the eight completed months ending with last August, the United States showed an import excess of S913, 569. The really startling disclosures of these figures will be appreciated when it is recalled that for the same period of 1909 our exports exceeded imports by s59, ,4S2, 1000, while for the same months of 1908 the unpreced- ented export excess of S391, ,O0O, ,OOO was reported.
 Such a showing suggests inevitably large gold exports later on, unless the foreign demand for our securities enlarges or commodity prices in the United States decline to level at which Europe will again become a i large buyer. The recent fall in wheat and cotton prices and the gradual readjustment that has taken place in other quarters shows that the situation in this respect is better ing, and that a favorable turn in foreign trade affairs may be near at | hand. The dispute between Ameri- can and foreign bankers over the guaranteeing of bills of Iading issued against cotton shipments will probd- bly be adjusted in the near future, sn that the threatened withdrawal of foreign lenders from operations hav- ing to do with financing the cotton crop may be avoided. This is forum ate, as these requirements are very heavy, and if the New York banks were compelled to finance the entire burden alone there might be some inconvenience experienced, since the 1 heaviest payments come in the season when the demands ot the Western crop-moYing centres, as we'll as the usual financing which has to be at tended to in the closing months of the year, call for very large aggregate outlays.
 After the Congressional elections are held a better tone to general busi- ness may be expected to develop. At the moment business men everywhere have been unsettled by the complica- tions in national politics and the un- certainty that usually arises when the possibility of tariff revision is un-