The Fairmont West Virginian. (Fairmont, W. Va.) 1904-1914, 1910-06-29

]. How much Of q reserve should one
tihaye ON the night of the final count p
il This is the question. that not only
each candidate in the West Virgin,
Hans old world tour contest is now
asking herself, but is daily put to the
I, contest manager both by candidates
and their friends.
Indeed, at this time, It is the great
problem, or rather, enigma, that is be
yond solution. The contest manager
IFS as much at sea as the candidate. He
] may have an idea but not sufft-
ciently definite to explain in cold, hard
numerals what now the contestant
most desires to know. For here is
one very particular instance where
Figures would lie"-regardless. of
their reputation to the contrary.
However. the contest manager
knows by experience that the reserve
yoteH in this period is the Question
preeminent" but just what should be
The size of his reserve to name a win,
ner is the something, very important,
now up to the good Judgment Of the
candidate.
Unexpected Happens.
For it chances that very frequently
1.-THE unexpected" happens on the final
day of the contest hobs up in the
form of longtime subscriptions and
1how is the candidate to know, or the
contest manager, how much Of a re;
serve they will pile up for contest
, ants? e.
}, Candidates whose reserve up to
date may be equal, If inflated on the
;. final day by these big subscriptions,
; can reach figure that may bring them
! the coveted tours especially II their
competitors have made too little pro-
{, vision against that possibility.
The opportunity to inject these big
subscriptions into the general uncer-
tainty is universal privilege q game
that all can play-and to fairly meet
this uncertainty and sidetrack even
|, its PROBABILITIES should be the present
effort Of each Of the candidates. There
; should be no time lost in "makipg
/. sets'-in adding daily to the reserve
torce-and guarding against the what
may happen on the day Of the final
landslide Of ballots.
Reserve Real Hope.
The candidates with large numbers
ot unvoted specials up their sleeve'a are
aware the daily published votes are I
J, scale Indefinitely weighing the com
h parative strength Of themselves ant
! their competitors. They tell only frag
ments Of the story. In many instances
] lin fact, in nearly all, the published
< votes are a delusion clearly or sug
d gestlvely OF the volume OF strength
back of them. They are not even tht
. basis for reasonable guess work. Il
fine, If one we're to use them even al
} symptoms upon which to plant wa
ger the result nine times in ten would
mark up a loser.
No Exasgeration.
Now it is not the intention to exag
gerate at this time either the neces
: sIty Of an "abnormalIy large reserve
or the dark uncertainty that natur
, ally intensifies as the close draw
}, nearer, but merely to impress upon
candidates and their friends the
danger Of oyerconldence, or taking
for granted that the reserve they al
READY have Is sufficiently largeSor In
sarmountabie. To these, should they
continue in that belief, there Is olt
chance Of success, and three chances
ot failure. And this is reasonably so
+ for the Judgment Of the candidate toe
, frequently squeezes the Essential re.
serve into too narrow limits. AS q
result. what looks big to her the day
before the close appears insignificant
I enough when later compared with the
, reserve that marks up the winner.
Then s. Is too late TO come to the
contest manager and complain y Why
didn't you tell us-at least, give US q
\ limit"
Remember, We are telling you now.
over Confidence Dangerous,
And to drop therdesiFed hint let II
DO added mot only Is Over confidence
but dopbly SO u tbe ipdiyid,
{ Vial Judgment which satisfactorily 70
Itself fills aFqaatt measure WITH
Escant ehaifspint 81 fesefye This ip;
daanite uniaue measuring hot alone