The Birmingham age-herald. [volume] (Birmingham, Ala.) 1902-1950, 1910-09-30
Didn't work out Right

It often happens that theory and
practice do not agree. But 1t goes
without saying that when theory
cannot be put into practice the theory
is not true. An interesting example OF
that kind is found in prominent cit
liens carefully prepared article on Biz
minghams population and submitted to
The Age Herald for publication last
April, Just as the census enumerators
were about to start to work, But the
prominent citizen aforesaid remark ed
that 1t might be well to hold his article
over for a while, and accordingly 1t
had been in a piseonhole In The Age
Herald office ever since.
The calculations were made along
very conservative lines and If there
| is such thing as the science of proba-
bilities the result reached by the local
statistician would seem reasonable
enough. But the calculations brought
Birminghams population so far under
the mark that it is evident there was
something wrong somewhere. The ar
ticle is given below and will be read
with interest in the light of the GEN.
sus report issued yesterday Here it is:
Much interest is felt as to the show
ing Greater Birmingham will make In
the approaching census. The enthusi-
astic citizens are sure that 1t will
amount to $4,000 or upward; but a
sober calculation will give very diff
ferent result.
1.-THE census of 1900 sh owed that the
city proper at that time contained 49,
600 people. For the sake of this cal
culation let us place 1t at 100000 and
add 40 per cent increase for the last
10 years. We have then 10000 increase
added to 10000, which would be $4,000
for the old city at this time. Twenty
per cent is the normal rate of increase
for 10 years; but this estimate allows
40 per cent.
"Only two of the towns which now
go to make up Greater Birmingham
were rated at 5000 population in 1900.
These were Avondale and Pratt City.
So. IL we allow 5000 to each of the
seven towns recently taken in, in
Guiding Avondale and Pratt City, we
have $1,000. and add to this 5000 for
and the towns taken in and we have
their s1eregate population in 1900 not
more than 10000. To this figure add
40 per cent for the increase in 10 years
and the result is $4,000, added to 10000
which amounts to $4,000. Now add this
$4,000 to the $4,000 contained in the
old city and the grand aggregate is
$4,000 In the year 1910.
I'm this calculation a most liberal
allowance is made for the population
of old Birmingham and the towns
and territory added as for the year
1900, towit. 10000. The census of that
year showed considerably less. Instead
of estimating the increase at the nor
NAL 20 per cent, 1t is calculated at
40 per cent. The most sanguine cannot
fairly claim greater rate of increase
AS an old citizen of Birmingham
and deeply interested in its growth
and prosperity. I regret that 1 cannot
reasonably figure out higher figure.
II the population has increased 40 per
cent In 10 years, the most sanguine
among us ought to be satisfied, al
though 1t keeps us out of and below
the 100000 class of cities. 1t is in the
next 10 years that look for the great
and rapid growth of population and
the census of 1920 will show that over
100000 souls are living and working in
Greater Birmingham.
Let us not be discouraged or dis
appointed If the coming enumeration
fails to reach the 100000 mark"