The Birmingham age-herald. [volume] (Birmingham, Ala.) 1902-1950, 1910-04-25
Wise Ones Are Looking for
Spectacular Advance
MARKET is ovERsoLD
Bull Leaders Still Have Control of
Prices and II Is Said They Are
Merely Waiting for Some
ing to Drop
by ROBERT LEE CARTER

~
say nothing of the great southern mar
kets. this week. is certain.
One fact seems to stand out beyond all
others. The market is worse oversold
than it has been in years, and it will be
impossible for the cotton sold to be de-
livered.
Estimates of the amount of the bear
shortage reach extraordinary figures. One
man. whose information is regarded as
reliable, says that houses in this city are
short millions of bales which have been
sold to spinners ali over the world. How
will it be delivered? This is a question
that the men who hold the cotton can
answer least of all, it is said The bears,
it Is pointed out, who had controlled the
market, had plenty of time in which to
cover their shorts had they not been
overconfdent. Instead, they cherished the
belief that they could break the mar
ket whenever it suited them, or seemed
necessary for them to do SO.
The situation is now regarded by many
to be bigger than any bull group that ex-
lists. 1t is simply matter of nature not
supplying a sufficient crop of cotton for
the needs of the world. At present there
are 100000 bales of cotton in the coun-
try, and on this the mills of the world
will have to run for months to come.
Patten Watching Market
Patten, who is in Chicago, feeling the
situation to be well in his hands, will
not hold out for an exorbitant price, it
Is said today, but is willing to let the
cotton he holds go at a fair profit His
present position, it was pointed ont, was
due not to chance, was not the result of
office speculation, but of a study of the
weather map.
"The whole trouble" said a bull oper-
ator, 'is that the bears have bought cot
ton in the south and hedged in the mar
ket. 1t amounts to the same as saying
that for every 100 bales they purchased
they sold 200 bales. Now, they must
make good
In the meantime the bears are securing
the country for actual cotton. Not only
have they bought back some $4,000 bales
from England, but the New England and
southern mills are being secured to Sc
cure shipments of cotton to New York
for May delivery in order to break the
market. I understand they are meeting
with scant success in this effort, the
mills being 10th to let their. cotton go
in view of the uncertainty of being able
to get it back at ALL
1t was announced today in Beaver
street that a group of English brokers
We're now on the ocean EN- route to this
city with the determination to buy back
some of the so 300 bales which bears had
shipped here from England at a cost of
s250,000 to force Patten, Scales, Brown and
others of the bull group to quit their po-
sition.
or course. the Englishmen want more
than $1,000 bales, but what success they
will have, and what the effect ON the
market will be il they succeed, are mat
ters to be left for the future in decide.
100000 Bales Bought
1t is estimated that the net purchases
by the big four amount to about 400 =
900 bales. The sellers consist chiefly of
two large spot houses and one important
stock exchange house, besides a consid-
cradle outside following of both these
concerns.
The stock of cotton SO far in New
York available to make these deliveries
amounts in round figures to 100000 bales,
secured from various parts of the coun-
try and delivered on the New York con-
tracts in question IL there is to be a
settlement between the bull clique and
their opponents before the expiration of
May.
1t is the prevailing opinion that the big
spot houses who have agents all over the
south and intimate connections with the
mills will, at considerable loss to them
Ill I,.f,, fpYNxt a,.1 ntfcrI
cotton to fill their contracts; but in the
case of the shorts who have not these
facilities for obtaining the actual cotton
ii is regarded as impossible to make de-
liveries. This would, of course, mean
default or private settlement, and in
tense interest, therefore, is being shown
in the outcome
The government investigation of the
cotton situation, which 1t is firmly be-
lieved is the work of the bears, has in
troduced an element of bitterness into
the situation.
The May Squeeze
An idea is very prevalent among the
trade that the May squeeze may prove
Only preliminary to a second corner to
be tried in the July option, and that ar
rangements have been made by the bull
leaders to secure and pay for all the cot
ton that will be delivered in May. They
vii then export the same, or sell it to
the mills with the distinct guarantee
that 1t shall not be permitted to be re-
turned TO the market for delivery on July
contracts Having thus secured all the
cotton that can be forced to New York,
the plans of the manipulators, it is re-
ported, are to carry out more sensa-
tioral movement in July, and that the
MAY squeeze merely represents the pre-
lininary work of clearing up the supply
of actual cotton.
Inquiry as to what houses here were
affected by the Knight. Yancey * Co.
failure in the south was heard on all
sides down town. At least 100000, some
persons said, was dropped on the col
lapse In this city.
The extent OF the loss which may have
been caused to American cotton firms
through the fraudulent bills of lading for
cotton purporting to have been shipped
TO England is still unknown. George
Rrennecke president of the New York
cotton exchange. said that he had not re-
ceived any further details concerning the
Liverpool frauds. Mr.. Brennecke could
mo- estimate the loss to American firms.
"a know one firm" he said, (which has
lost s20Gn0. IT Is impossible To say how
many other firms have been hit
Liverpool has been hit much harder
than the New York market, and 1t is fig
ured that 26 of the leading firms on the
other side have losses of 100000 to
s40O0,0O0