The Washington herald. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1906-1939, 1910-06-20

New York, June i9.-The one thing that
seemed to stand out more prominently
than anything else in financial estina-
ton through last week was a frank and
unqualified recognition of the fact that
business contraction is in more or less
Widespread progress; and next to this
was an equally general realization that
such contraction was about the best
thing that could possibly happen.
II Is evident now that the beginning
of this slowing down was not of recent
date. and that it really started in the
fall months OF last year. 1t has been
peculiar In this way, that II has been
irregularly conducted. experiencing many
ITS and starts, and differently Affecting
each particular business. Certain lines
in the trade OF the country even now are
more active than they have ever been
before
Others are obviously and greatly de-
pressed But taking business as a whole,
q plain process of defation has been at
work for full eight months back. The
letting of of steam has been carried on
quietly and so gradually that It has made
little noise, and has led many people to
| doubt that any steam was being let OF
at all
Business of Smaller Volume.
But, nevertheless, comparisons of rail-
way gross earnings. Of bank exchanges,
OF pig iron production, and OF general
trade returns show that business is of
decidedly smaller volume now than it
was in October, 1909 and that the course
of the shrinkage has been comparatively
slow Nearly everybody is spending less
money than they did last year, and ap-
probation Of this rests upon general OBJ
serYatiOn rather than upon the statistics
OF the great curtailment in certain trades,
such as In the cotton manufacturing and
wooden industries.
OF course, conditions in the case Of
cotton are altogether exceptional. The
whole world is suffering from the 3.000
600 bale shortage in last years crop of
American cotton, and It goes without
saying that a large crop Of cotton in the
coming year is more urgently needed not
only by the people of our country. but
by the people of the whole world than
anything else that can be wanted. In no
other department of trade has the sub
sidence been so manifest as in textiles.
but it has been general nevertheless:
and at the expense of repetition II must
again be emphasized that all this intro
duction of personal and corporate econ
omy Is a good thing, and that its con-
tinuation marks the shortest route TO a
resumption OF business prosperity on q
greater and more substantial scale than
ever
People Are Saving Money.
Such conditions as these mean, reduced
10 their last essence, that the people OF
the, country, instead Of spending money,
are saving it; that wealth in the country
instead OF being dissipated is being ac-
cumulatedi and that the reserve stores of
capital, whether in the form OF cash or
manufactured goods or commodities of
any kind, are being replenished instead
Of being needlessiy and eXtravagantly
drawn upon.
What will follow after a reasonable
period OF such a status viii be what has
always followed before in these great, en-
teFprising. and energetic United States
the number Of whose population may
very likely reach IN the census figures
now being taken hundred million. First
the huge stores Of idle money IN the
banks will begin TO be reinvested in the
better class Of bonds and similar securi
ties.
People who have been keeping money
there viii be tired OF getting but pei
cent interest. or perhaps no interest, and
win begin 10 acquire high-grade invest
ments The buying movement vii
spread gradually to stocks, and in due
time viii affect commercial and mercan
tie affairs. Necessarily, the norma
progress OF a recovery like this need:
facilities for its complete and speedy con,
summation. One Of these is that there
should be no momentous crop failure il
any important agricultural product, and
another, that the country should not bt
4 harassed by political or other contingent
.cies outside Of the domain Of economic:
proper.
No one supposes that the great depres
sion of the year 1886 would have run Il
the lengths it did had not the business
interests Of the country been terrified, a.
there was just reason TO be, over the
possibility Of the success Of Mr.. Bryan
as a Presidential candidate and an in
dorsement by the electorate Of the fret
silver idea