The San Francisco call., 1910-10-30
PLURALITY FOR
JOHNSON Will
BE 100000
Two to One Offered by Repub-
lican Bettors Goes Begging
Among Democrats
Even Money That johnson VIII
Carry State by $4,000
Finds Bourbons Shy
By GEORGE A. VAN SMITH

Oy 6GONGE "A. VAN SMl II
What will be the proportions of
Hiram w. Johnson's plurality over
Theodore A Bell? VIII johnson be
elected by q plurality or by an actual
majority Of all the votes cast by the
people OF California a week from Tues
day7
These are the questions the students
OF politics are trying to answer. Out
side the inner circles OF the democratic
campaign machine the election Of john
son is not considered an open question.
Indeed. within that circle there are
men who admit IN private conversation
that the size OF Johnson's lead is the
only debatable question, aside from the
probable result in San Francisco.
In the republican campaign camp the
estimates placed on the Johnson vote
range all the way from plurality of
100000, which is 10 say a big majority,
down TO an edge of $4,000. The degree
IN which >(the betting public shares
these opinions may be shown by the
betting odds
WHERE ARE BELL BETsTORs.
There is none willing TO take the
short end Of a TO l bet that Johnson
viii win. When IL comes to the matter
of pluralities there is a difference of
opinion strong enough 10 loosen a few
small purse strings. The offer of even
money that Johnson carries the state
by $4,000 has found q few takers.
A canvass of the men interested in
politics and representative of the state
generally discloses a state Of mind eN
actly like that indicated by the odds in
the open betting ring. The politicians
will wrangle about the probable proper
tions OF Johnsons lead over Bell. but
even those who avow their hatred for
johnson do not pretend to question his
election.
SILENT VOTE Is FACTOR
There are reasons for this unanimity
OF opinion. One of these reasons may
be found in the average mans apprecia-
tion Of the motives and intentions of
his neighbors. Men who have devoted
years 10 the study of conditions in their
respective communities get in touch
with well defined situations as the re-
suit of experiences they could not eX-
plain or enumerate. They know the
feel Of public sentiment.
Men will tell you about the situation
in their communities, as indicated by
the current talk or by the silent" vote.
II may be remarked that the silent"
vote is a big factor in this campaign.
just as IL was in the primary cam
paign. Men are talking about men and
z bout issues in this campaign They
are talking about the peoples atti-
tude toward candidates and issues. and
il is TO no ones discredit that they are
talking more about the peoples atti-
fude toward the issues than about their
attitude toward candidates. The
prophet with a handful of pencils and
miles OF figures warranted TO disclose
the exact situation happily is missing
this year.
PUBLIC PICKS JOHNSON
To1,
and the republican ticket to win be-
cause they realize that the public has
picked johnson and his ticket to win.
Johnson is nearing the end Of one of
the most remarkable campaigns ever
made in the west. That campaign be-
gan eight months ago, when johnson
reluctantly consented TO go into the
primary race. Johnson has gone to the
people Of the state. He has gone not
alone to the city man but to the farmer,
the miner and the woodsman. He has
taken 70 them q splendid personality,
the gift OF magnetic oratory and an un-
lnistakable disposition to fight, but he
has taken something more. He has
taken an issue. From that issue he
e. campaign of eight months he has
never wavered, never sounded an off
keynote
It is not a new issue. 1t has been
before the people of California for
years. but until they secured the direct
primary law they were helpless The
letters have been struck off. The de-
fernnintfon of the long dominant issue
IS in their hands Inseparably bound
up in that issue is Hiram W. Johnson.
In him are centered the hopes OF the
people who have determined to gov
themselves m TnhrSny
occupies today the same position with
relation TO the whole people that he
occupied with relation to the republi-
can party prior to the primary election.
That furnishes no accurate index to the
size Of Johnson's plurality or majority
snce Of his election.
MELVIN A SURE WINNER
The reelection OF Associate Justice
Henry A Melvin of the supreme court
was Enthusiastically forecasted by the
tremendous vote he received in the di-
rect primary contest for the nomina-
ton.
An analysis of Justice Melvin's pri-
mary vote makes the contentious OF his
defractors only ridiculous. Since the
urinary election. as was true before
the nominating election, the opposition
10 Judge Melvin has gone up and down
the state declaring that he held his
place on the bench in spite OF the pop
l,isr will rather than because of the
peoples wish.
The fight against the denomination
of Justice Melvin was based ostensibly
upon the ground that he had been
forced on the bench by executive APP
-,ofntment with disregard of the popu-
lar temper and that his subsequent
election had been brought about by
the vote of San Francisco and the big
cities,
VOTE SHOWS DIFFERENTLY
The people of the interior took the
,,,ind out of those sails last September
when they went to the direct primary
nolls for the first time. Up and down
tbe interior, where the people rolled
IN 2. 10000 plurality for Hiram w
Johnson. the same people rolled up
almost the same aggregate vote for
Justice Henry A. Melvin. In county
sSfer county in the interior the COM
rleted poll of the primary vote showed
that Justice Melvin had run away from