Los Angeles herald., 1910-10-27
THE HERALD FORECAST

TIOR many years the election fore
Il casts of the New York Herald
Il have been looked upon as among
the political classics. The Herald mas
prided itself upon the general accu-
racy of these surveys, and they are
conducted with an aim not to prove
any preconceived belief but to get
correct knowledge of the outlook and
incidentally maintain the reputation
of the paper for the reliability of it's
predictions.
Another reason impels the Herald to
be as accurate as possible. It IS
notorious political trimmer-a great
newspaper in many respects but with
no settled convictions in politics ex-
cept when the personal interest of its
owner prompts it to get off the fence.
We have a very good replica of the
New York Herald in that respect
here in Los Angeles. 1t keeps its
eye peeled until it sees how things
are going and then jumps down in
the winning camp and sets up a yell
that it did it all,
For this reason the New York pa
per has an incentive to be accurate
it wants to see where to jump. The
second of the Herald's forecasts is out.
The house of representatives has 39l
members. OF these 217 are now Re-
publicans and ia Democrats. The
Democrats are thought now to be rea-
sonably certain of carrying 141 dis
tricts and the Republicans of carry
ing 1872 districts. The remaining 118
districts are classed as doubtful. OF
these 50 are now in Republican con-
troll and So in Democratic. OF course
the real fighting will be concentrated
in the next four weeks, and much
can happen in a month.
The senatorial situation is attracting
even more attention in Washington
than congressional elections. Recent
Developments have made the choice
of enough Democrats to control the
senate as probable as the mainten-
ance of Republican control even by
slender majority made up in large
part of insurgents. who are closer to
the Democrats in some things than
they are to the standpatters. At the
national capital the chances of Senator
BeYeridge are not considered more
than equal to those of a Democrat,
Connecticut is likely to elect a Demo-
cratic governor, Judge Simeon Bald
win, and the legislature may be Demo-
cratic, too. In this case Senator Bulk
ley, who lacks popularity, will stay
at home after March 8, 1911. Nebras-
lla Republicans are divided and a
Democrat may succeed Senator Bur-
kett. Missouri will almost certainly
send a Democrat to replace Senator
Warner, a Republican. Senator Dix
on of Nevada is said to have given
up hope of going back to Washington,
and it is regarded as safe to predict
a Democrat to succeed him.
Maine has chosen a Democratic
legislature. In Montana Democrats
and insurgents are combined against
Senator Garter. New York is more
replace Depew. Ohio, New Jersey,
Massachusetts, North Dakota ana
West Virginia are fair fighting ground,
Arizona is counted Democratic, and
New Mexico as debatable. 1t is easy
to see, therefore, that there is a fine
field for fighting. both for the senate
and the house. The Republicans have
paper majority Of 26, but seven to
twelve Republicans are classed as in
surgents on different questions. Demo-
cratic success in a dozen states would
give the senate to the present mi
nority party.
The truth of the Herald's forecast
is generally admitted in a general way.
Republican leaders privately admit
the precariousness of their hold, and
Democrats, already sanguine before
the Maine election, are more so now.
1t is 'in the air. that a big change
is impending, The Herald's final fore
cast will be made just previous to
the election, and If it is as accurate
as usual it will be a good guide,