The times dispatch. [volume] (Richmond, Va.) 1903-1914, 1910-12-05
ESTIMATE ON SIZE
OF CROP IS AWAITED

, decline of 80 to 10 points from the
high prices of Monday, There were
10000 bales of actual cotton delivered
on December contracts, out OF locaI
| stocks here on Thursday. having TO-
tai valuation of $S.140,0Oo.
The Next Ginning Report.
On Thursday, December s. at 10
o'clock, the Census Bureau is expected
to render It's estimate on the amount
of cotton ginned to December i. In
view Of the unusual conditions for the
rapid completion of the picking and
ginning of the crop the past month.
this coming report should show close
to 100000 bales ginned. against 81
| $4,000 ginned to December last year,
11.00S,000 the previous year. and s,S43,-
900 in 1907. and 1O.02I 1000 in 1906. and
S,GS9.O0O in 1905.
What percentage of the crop such
total ginning as l00oO,o00 would rep
resent is question which is being
very strongly debated in the trade.
The great conflict of crop estimates,
and their wide range from l0,40o.o00
bales up to 13, o00, 900 bales Is large
ly due to these conflicting views, and
this question will remain unsettled un-
til the governments crop estimate is
rendered at o'clock on December o.
| when the Agricultural Bureaus report
Will be announced. The total amount
OF cotton ginned in the last report
covering the period TO November H.
was S.774,O00 bales
The Governments Crop Estimate.
The governments estimate on the
size of the crop is being awaited with
the greatest interest throughout the
cotton world. Such good crop experts
as oscar *. Lyle and Cordill. with
their estimates of 100000 bales and
12,6O0,000 bales. respectively. exclusive
of linters, is an example of how far
apart are the ideas of the experts in
estimating the crop with Miss Giles
the local statistican. venturng a pre-
dction of 1o,os2.o0o bales The aver
age of other experts and trade inter
ests ranges from II, 100000 to 11,G0O.-
600 bales. Consequently, the great ma
jority of the trade is looking to the
governments crop estimate to settle
the question as to which of these esti-
mates Is correct. O. d. Hammond.
who has made ten trips through the
| belt for the largest Wall Street inter-
| est, agrees with Mr. Lyle's figures In
. his final reports. Last year the gov
ernment estimated the crop in it's De-
icembcr report as l0,0SS,0O0 bales,
whereas the final yield turned out 10,-
'oo,oou bdieS aHu the total commercial
crop movement. including linters. re-
packs of sample cotton, and the addi-
ton Of about 100000 bales of this
years new crop. exceeded 10000
bales The governments crop estimate
is made in running bales of 500 pounds
each, and is exclusive of either linters
or repacks of sample cotton.
The Trades Expectations.
TO conform with the average OF
the trade opinion of the past fort
night. it should be made between H.
100000 and 11,5oo,000 bales. There has
been great deal OF doubt however,
lately whether it will he as low as
that amount, as the consensus of esti-
mates gathered a month ago from the
members of the New FORK Liverpool,
New Orleans. Memphis, Savannah and
augusta exchanges was for 1900. 900 to
l2,ooO,0OO bales. II the government
estimates the crop even around 11,5OO.-
600 bales exclusive Of linters. it would
be regarded as bullisl. in view Of the
crop failure of last year. and experts
IN this country and in EuroIl on the
worlds consumption figuring the
worlds spinners' requirements for the
year Will call for a crop of at least H.
100000.