El Paso herald. (El Paso, Tex.) 1901-1931, 1910-10-28
A Congressional Forecast

! jOrity OF two or three, Dul IL IS lmpOS
! sible to predict with certainty which o
| the two parties will organize the house
writes Edward E. Higgins in the Sue
cess Magazine.
There will be a large increase in thu
Democratic membership, but there will
| be no Democratic Landslide"
The explanation of this rather I'M
expected result appears to be that the
progressive wing of the Republican
party has come into power at the pri-
maries in a very large proportion of the
Republican districts, while in many OF
the districts where the stand-pat ele-
ment retains control of the Republican
machine, the normal Republican plu-
ralities are so large that the stand-pat
candidates are likely to succeed, al
though by greatly reduced majorities
Both wings of the party are now dill
gently engaged in their historic occu-
patton Of "burying the Ratchet"
In other words, the heretofore gener-
ally expected Democratic success in the
closer districts of the country has been
put in jeopardy by the nomination OF
more or less popular insurgent Repub-
ncan candidates, and information re-
ceived by US indicates that there will
be little Republican boiling in such
districts.
Result OF THOROUGH OanVasS.
This. in brief, is the result of the
exhaustive investigation of local polit-
fcal conditions just made by Success
Magazine among the membership of its
auxiliary editorial board of life sub
scribers Nearly 5000 out of $4,000
members have instantly responded to
our requests for this information in a
clear, specific, frank and most interest
ing manner, and it is impossible to
doubt the conclusions reached.
The extraordinary closeneSS of this
coming contest is shown by our predic-
ton that 16S districts will certainly be
represented by Democrats, and 81 more
will probably be Democratic, giving
total reasonably sure Democratic mem
bership of 1S9; while the Republican
party will certainly elect $50 members
and will probably elect % more. giving
reasonably sure total Of 1S9-exactly
the same numberi
There are Is districts in the country
in which there is so even balance Of
probabilities that we cannot possibly
predict the result without reSorting to
mere guesSwork. These 13 districts, in
which the balance of power of the next
house will probably be settled, are the
following:
Thirteen Closest Districts.
The 10th (Boston) district of Massa-
chusetts, now represented by Demo-
crat (O'ConnelD, who won the last
election by votes only out Of $4,000
cast.
The 2Srd (AIbany) district of New
Y ork, now represented by Republican
(Southwick), who won the last election
by SIS votes out of $4,000 cast.
The End New Jersey district now
by Republican (Gardner), |
who won the last election by 3400 votes |
put of As, 0O0 cast.
The 9Th Indiana district, now repre-
;ented by a Republican CBarnard). who
won the last election by 100 votes out |
IF $1,000 cast.
The 9TH Indiana district, now repre-
;ented by a Democrat (Korbly), who
won the last election by only $50 votes
,ut of 10000 cast.
The 9Th Indiana district, now repre-
.ented by a Democrat CMorrison), who
Won the last election by 100 votes out
# $4,000 cast.
The 18th Indiana district, now repre-
ented by a Democrat (Rauch), who
Won the last election by 1900 votes out
# SO, 600 cast.
The list Michigan district. now repre-
ented by Republican CDenby), who
Won the last election by 5000 votes out
# $4,000 cast, but who will have a
cry hard fight for reelection
The 1st Iowa district. now represent
d by Republican kennedy, who
ron the last election by 1900 votes out
f $4,000 cast.
The End Iowa district, now repre-
ented by a Republican (Dawson), who
f $4,000 cast.
The 9Th Iowa district, now represent
d by a Republican (KendalD, who
yon the last election by less than 800
otes out of 49, 200 cast.
The 5th North Carolina district, now
epresented by a Republican More
ead). who won the last election by
ess than 200 votes out of $4,000 cast.
The Sth North Carolina district, now
epresented by a Republican (Cowles),
Tho won the last election by 400
otes out Of $4,000 cast.
Close Balance of Power.
1t will thus be seen that of these IS
oubtful districts four are now repre-
ented by Democrats and nine by Re-
u blicans The successful party will
ave to win seven of the 13 in order 10
ontrol the house, assuming that our
,recast in all other respects, is cor
ect The fact that the Republicans
ow have nine Of the 13 doubtful dis
lets is the sole justification for our
-atement that the probabilities are
lightly in favor of a Republican ma
,rity of two or three.
The extraordinarily close balancing
power between the two great parties
: the country, as indicated by this, our
forecast, can hardly fail it
-ould seem. to be Of good cheer to
oth-to the Democratic party because
tier many years 1t now has power al
ost within its grasp, and to the Del
Iblican party because it is evident
lat the conditions are not so bad as !,
as been generally believed =.
The field in Detail. .
A brief survey of the entire country
I'd of the important battle grounds in
e coming contest will be of interest.
In New England, the Republicans :
Ave already lost (by the early cleo !
on two members in Maine. Repre- !
ntative sideways New HAMPSHIRE
strict is in debt, and the 10th Massa- :
lusetts district, now represented by a ,
is also in doubt, as previous
noted In Rhode Island, representa- :
We Sheffield will probably fail of re- :
ection. In Connecticut there is a
rong Democratic wave of revolt, but +,
e Republican majorities in all dis
lets are large, and except for the End 4
representative SDerrv'S) district +baro