Evening times-Republican. [volume] (Marshalltown, Iowa) 1890-1923, 1910-06-06
An Estimate.
by Ora William 81

It
by Ora Williamsl
Des Moines, June 6.-One guess is
Just as good as another in primary
election. The above estimates are not
those of the standpatters, nor of the
progressives. They are betwixt and
between and averaging up both. In
fact, only very privately. will any of
those who have been concerned in the
campaign make an estimate. BIZ
Nye, the confidential man and actual
manager for Carroll, insists upon 3d.
600 as the majority for the standpat-
ters. But he is an unusually ardent
standpatterS and is believed TO have
guided the political fortunes of the
governor into an attack upon Cownie.
Joe Long, who is assisting, varies the
claims and sometimes goes much high
err But definite figures are not given.
At the progressive headquarters
neither Robert J. Fleming nor E. D.
Chassell will be quoted with figures.
But they say they know perfectly we'll
that the figures of Nye are the widest
and most irrational guesses. They are
very confident that the progressives
of Iowa are in a clear majority and
that this will be shown on Tuesday.
They admit, however. that any definite
estimates must be based largely upon
general impression as to the situa-
tion as it is reported. No polls have
been made by either side except on
the counties where the congressional
fights are warm.
Congressional Fights Interfere.
In the estimates above, for instance.
the Seventh district is credited with
only 1000 progressives. 1t is moro
likely to be 5000 and yet nobody can
tell how the congressional fight is go
ing to interfere. Polk county, in this
estimate, is credited with being only
1900 progressive and it may easily
double this amount Yet it is well un-
derstood that the Hull and Carroll
forces are working unitedIy in support
of the Cannonism idea and it is pos
sible that Carroll will reap much bene-
fit from the food of corruption money
being poured into the lower wards by
the distributors of the Cannon-Aldrich
organization. Here where a closer
view is obtained than elsewhere the re-
volt, even among the standpatters, is
very marked against state admins
tration that is so weak that it is
marked only by blunders.
Big Vote in Eighth and Ninth.
The Eighth and Ninth districts, in
the above table. are given to Carroll;
but the progerssves claim both Of
them by comfortable majorites and
are likely to get them. II Is in these
districts that every vote will be got
out, and where that is done the pro-
gressives are sure gamers. There will
be no surprise anywhere if the figures
given are reversed.
SO, also, with other districts of the
state. Take the Tenth and Eleventh,
for instance, and there is really no
reason why the two together should
not give d majority of $4,000 in support
of Senators Cummins and Dolliver by
their vote for Garst; and if they fail
in this it will be simply because the
voters have neglected their opportun-
fly. No district of the state has ever
been more warmly attached to the
Junior senator than the Eleventh. and
the Tenth ought to feel not only home
pride in the senior senator but in the
candidate for governor who stands
squarely with him in support Of re-
publican principles.
Fourth and Fifth Progressive.
The Fifth and Fourth districts, also
will more than likely register an ag-
gregate majority of 5000 to 5000 for
progressive principles rather than the
smaller sum given in the table Gov
ernor Garst stands squarely with the
two congressman from these districts
while vote for Carroll is distinct
vote of Reputation Of both of them 1t
is therefore expected by the progress
sives that these two districts will make
a good showing.
Your correspondent is prepared to be
disappointed If the progressive ma
jority falls below that given at the
general election two years ago. There
is every reason to believe that Gov
ernor Garst is as popular and deserv-
ing as was Governor Cummins at that
time, and That Governor Carroll Ger
tainly is not more of an idol Of the
standpatters than was Major Lacey.
seeond-Term Argument.
Tie enpecIa ton ui the standpa ttsls
that the second-term argument, based
on the supposition that the party pre-
eedents under the primary required
four years in state office, would be
the controlling factor in the campaign,
has utterly failed to nraterialize. Moth
ing is heard Of this now. To large
extent it was neutralized by the fact
that Governor Garst also was governor
and In the fifty-one days he occupied
that Office he did far more for the
good Of the state than his successor
has done In fifteen months. This feat
ure OF the campaign therefore disap-
r--eA leg egn
The campaign has been comparative
" short, and at least on the progress
sive side free from personalities and
acrimony. It was precfpitated March
10 by the calling Of the good roads"
conference where the jackson commit
tee was organized under direction Of