The Washington herald. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1906-1939, 1910-12-18
SPAIN LIKELY TO
FOLLOW PORTUGAL

/
eyes of the world have been fixed not
only upon Portugal. but upon Spain as
well. VIII the Spaniards. after all. fol-
low suit? Is revolution imminent IN
SPAIN despite all reports 10 the con-
i trary2 These are oslestions largely IN
/ the public mind during the past two
months.
Between the rumors of peace and alarm
! that fly 10 and fro. the real aspects OF
/ the issue are apt to be overlooked. for
in Spin the army is loyal to the exist
ing regime, and the Spanish people, more
! over until lately sunk in apathy, are
| slow 10 offer any but passive resistance
where demagogues would have open re-
bellion. The rural population finds y I'M
possible to live upon the SOIL This how
ever, does not lead 20 riots, certainly not
to organized and persistent riots, but
rather to emigration, in some instances
by whole villages. Were Spain a coun-
try OF populOus cities, the boast OF the
radicals that a revolution in that coun-
try is near at hand would be well
founded
| Their supporters chiefly are to be found
in large towns. but large towns are few in
Spain. and the industrial workers, rough
~ speaking, form but twentieth Of the
whole population. Il is among these
that the radical-repubicans and the So
cialists-the latter bow forming d united
party-have their adherents principally
at Madrid. Valencia. Bilbao, but espe-
claliy at Barcelona.
Barcelona is a city Of unrest the home
OF republicanism, socialism, anarchism,
and, on the other hand OF syndicstism
and any number OF subversiveisms. II
is the danger point from which revo-
luton Is expected TO spread TO the rest
of the kingdom. But IN the ordinary
course of events such a revolution win
b. delayed. The strength and opportu-
nifty Of the radicals lies in unexpected.
extraordinary events Those unexpected
and extraordinary events are likely 20
occur at any day among a fiery southern
people. once aroused from their apathy
Hence. sooner or later, it may be con-
hdently expected that a republic will
come for Spain as il has come for POrtu-
gal. But | venture TO say. as one who
thoroughly understands the workings Of
the Spanish mind, that again Il will be a
temporary republic Ike that Of the 1915
period.
The Spanish people, IL is true, are awak-
ening from their apathy. and being dis
contented-let us say Just discontented-
with the conditions of the country under
the leadership Of agitatOTs. they look for
| regeneration, not TO peace and reform
under the monarchy, but TO the rush and
turmoil OF revolution.
The Spaniards see a prosperous French
| republic to the north OF them; a great
and prosperous Spanish republic in the
Argentine; a Portuguese republic along
side of them. and another Portuguese re-
public in Brazil. and attribute their pros
perity not 10 position. energy. and eli
mate but To the magic word republic "
II is, moreover, in the Spanish tempera-
ment 10 spurn the present for the
past or future. the practical for the inn
aginary and ideal; so that while one
portion Of the nation in dstTust of new
things has It's eyes turned 10 the DAYS
OF the absolute monarchy and lnqusition
the other. equally untouched by practical
politics. looks 10 a glorious revolution tO
put an end TO all the evils in Spain
IL is but d sign OF the times that the
first party is growing less numerous year
after year. while the revolutionary party
increases. Active discomfort spreads from
the towns to the rural districts The
people. more and more lost TO the in
fuence Of the church or rather of the
priesthood, quickly are Incorporated into
/ tltf idUhs u the TUulCdis OF t0tlallhtS-
: Thus. at any time, almost automati-
r cally, ii revolution may be expected. But
this gradual. and let Us say calmer rev.
olution, would be FASTENED and brought
10 a seething point by any untoward
, event in Spanish politics
The reports OF the Kings III health are
, unfOunded, barring the usual ndispOsi-
tons now and then 10 which any mortal
Is subject. Now, more than ever. Al
fonso's life is precious to the peace and
well-being OF Spain. This much is Ger
r tain. Upon his death there would follow
a fresh period of disturbance. which all
] friends OF Spain would deplore.
But setting this aspect aside as al
ill-omened topic. there are three chic
G causes which would be likely TO occasion
e an immediate attempt at revolution-th,
i fan or Senior Canslejas, a war in Mo
1 rocco, or change in the attitude OF th,
army.
The present premier claims 10 hav,
raised the flag OF anti-clericalism befor,
. the neutrality-suspicious. who like to re
gard il as their exclusive property Til,
{ religious orders are unpopular in Spain
= The monks and nuns, said to numbe
D 5000, are hated by the industrial ans
commercial classes. Should Senior Canal
ejas be able 10 pass a Law that definitely
would bring the religious association
e under civil law and regulate their mum
b bers, the chances OF the revolutionarie
would be diminished. But should ne TAI
Q 20 do so, they will at once raise thei
c favOrite cry that progress under the mon
archy Is impossible.
q The situation is the more serious be
cause the alternative TO Senior canaleja
is not a conservative cabinet formed O
the opposition party, but rather. il ma,
: be- chaos. The Conservative leaders ar,
2 hated by the pOpulace with an incredibl,
n animosity. Tales OF narrow, reactionar,
: methods and Od-stained repression,
8 have unjustly been woven around them
2 and their advent To power under presen
I circumstances would cause universal pro
tests, perhaps riots.
Al the same time there is no liberia
statesman To succeed Canalelas. He rep
Z resents the most radical element emone
d the monarchical liberals, and during his
q term of Office has displayed rare common
L sense and hTmness OF character SO that
r If he should be unable to carry through
4 his policy and should be Obliged TO re
II sign, il is indeed improbable that any
other Liberal statesman would be mor'
successful.
l do not hesitate, under such ciTcum
Z stances. 10 predict that the fall of Canal
4 ejas will be followed by the fall OF tn,
o Spanish monarchy
e Other pitfalls are more at the mercy o
a chance. A war in Morocco viii be al
= most certain TO cause a revolutionar,
< movement in Barcelona similar 10 tn
riots OF July, 1909-riots made possible b.
the opportunity OF the Melila campaign