The sun., 1910-01-09
RUSSIA FEARS JAPANESE WAR
ATTACK MAY COME IN 1912,
INVESTIGATION REPORTS.
Alliance with Germany Pending Makes
Oriental Nation More 90 Ne Guarded
Against. Inasmuch az Far BRsterners
Feel Other War was Inadequate.
Special Cable Dsspafeh 10 rHR SUN.

E0U OtneE war was hnaucunAtc'
Special Cable Dsspaich 10 TIE suns.
n ST. PETERSBURG. Jan. S.-The most
influential circles in Russia are again
regarding the outlook in the Orient with
the gravest concern. They are pro-
toundly disturbed by the long con-
hdential report prepared by M. Glesmer,
a member OF the industrial delegation in
the Council Of the Empire. who made a
tour OF Investigation in Japan and
Russia eastern frontier territories.
NJ. Glesmer went to the Orient some
time before Finance Minister Kokovtzeff
Tor the purpose OF acquiring independent
information in case the Government
should launch a policy involving the in
terests OF the Russian business world.
report which he wrote for a small
number of friends in the Council OF the
Empire and the Duma represented the
situation as so dangerous that Premier
Stolypn asked him to postpone its cir
culation until Foreign Minister Isvolsky
could issue a reasoned note on the salts
factory state OF the Russo-Japanese
diplomatic relations. which was launched
a fortnight ago.
The report OF NJ. Glesmer, which comes
successful business men of Russia. main
tains the view that japan is again bent
on taking the aggressive. He says her
economic position is perfectly sound.
There will be no japan ese loan in the
coming year. She Is reaping three har-
vests yearly. She has an annual food
supply enough for $1,000 900 population
although she has only 5S.OOO.OoO.
She is preparing a military transport
organization Of 100000 rickshaws and
coolies, which will be much more efficient
than horse transport. The spirit Of the
people is still resolute.
NJ Glesmer was present at a fire in
Japan where 10000 houses were razed,
yet he found that not one Of the sufferers
became a beggar OF sought public help.
He il convinced that the Japanese will
Use all their strength to drive Russia
back from the Corean frontier. The
Anglo-Japanese alliance will be of no
avail TO stop this.
Japanese statesmen are already turn
ing their minds to an alliance with Ger
many. Their two young navies could
cooperate on opposite sides OF the world.
the German feet holding the English in
European waters. The attitude taken by
the United States. writes NJ. Glesmer
will be decisive factor. He believes that
the American Government will adopt a
passive role.
Given China's present position and the
neutrality OF America, an alliance between
Japan and Germany would have such
significance that it would change not only
the political map Of the Orient but also OF
Europe. Russia g position. he maintains.
is very unfavorable. even critical. In
order to maintain effective connection
with her European base she must begin
Immediately to double track the Trans
Siberian Railroad. which will cost I76. .OOO.-
OOn rnbles.
She must build a line through Russian
territory to Chabarovsk. Blagovest-
schensk aud Nicolaievsk. which will
require an additional 10000 rubles.
Russia. further. must build docks and
fortresses on her Pacific coast and main
tain there a garrison OF 100000 men.
Japans only present weakness is the
Chinese boycott Of Japanese goods and
Japanese shipping. II the boycott is
persisted in. NJ. Clesmer admits that
Japan will be seriously crippled.
All OF Japan's new works that have
strategical purpose will be ready in 1911 =,
when several OF her international and
commercial treaties will lapse. Il is
urgent that Russia should have China
on her side by 1912. NJ. Clesmer found
from intercourse with the Japanese that
the results OF the last war with Russia
were so inadequate that new war would
be very popular. The Japanese see no
sense in awaiting further political con-
junctures or the regeneration OF China.
She is most likely to attack in 1912.
It is important and relevant to the con-
tents OF NJ. Clesmer's confidential report
that it is in the 81. Petersbur0eT ZeaunO,
which has regular relations with the
German embassy here, and not in the
national Russian newspapers. it is first
made public.