New-York tribune., 1910-12-25
ALLAWAY'S REVIEW

wan streets Christmas does not IN.
eiude much merriment- Yet despite ALI
the blue atmosphere envelopinx N.
Stock Exchange fair and careful can
vases OF the general business situation
are far from disclosing anything vitality
bad. Most things are better than rem
resented. Railway gross earnings over
top past maximurns-and this Certainly
shows that trade generally is alive ana
moving. Net exhibits are poor In =
multitude OF instances-and this net de-
cline is what chiefly Wall Street insist,
upon taking for it's text. In speculative
circles there is no longer free and eazy
explanation attempted OF net decreases
on the ground that the railroads ara doc
toring their accounts, making poor
showings in order to influence better
traffic rates. Above other things what
is of most consequence to them is the re-
moval of the popular feeling that be-
tween the railroads and the government
there is enmfty and necessary collision:
and Just one word Of assurance from the
ii@iii Hudi tel iildl d SdlASldtlDLJ uIlEf-
standing is reached would be eIsctrify-
ing 1t would bring the stock market TO
life again. But first of all. best of all, 4
would set business in motion with
rush in every industrial quarter.
The railroads are buying supplies, pro-
viding physical maintenance. on the very
scantiest possible basis. Especially op-
come in the iron and steel trades
Whether il be steel rails and locomotives
or relatively Insignificant items OF sup
ply, the railroads have felt Obliged to
withhold orders, except OF the most COM
pulsory sort; and one result is shown in
daily newspaper reports that there is
conflict, secret cutting and even danger
OF open Generalization in steel products
That there is sour temper shown in con-
spicuous steel quarters is indubitable
But they who are pessimistic should not
lose sight of the fact that the railroads
in Withholding orders are not Just start
ing out upon their campaign: they have
been at it a long while; they have econo-
rnized and econornized. till finally they
must be close approaching the period
where limits are reached-where from
sheer necessity they will be obliged to
buy-and buy stupendously.
Changing conditions in the money mar
ket will soon be exerting new and help
full influence. Bankers OF Importance
are agreed now that funds will be abun-
dant on the turn of the year and that
rates viii be favorable. Many conse-
duce this better financial position.
Throughout the year there has been con
tinual preaching in high places OF the
necessity for widespread economy; and
that this preaching has had effect shows
in a hundred revelations. and with espe-
ciaI significance in the alteration Of our
international accounts. This time last
year America was. buying abroad far be-
yond what 1T was selling there. Trade
balances became monthly scarecrows
This situation ia revoIutionized- For
eign trade is no longer dislocated by
home extravaganza; to the inspiriting
contrary, international balances have
swung within the last four months into
favorable exhibits-with prospects as
cheerful now as at the close of last De-
cenlber they were grewsome. We were
starting then to ship gold in large vol
ume. Now almost any day may bring
disclosures of gold imports, with what
conservative bankers recognize as as
surance that funds at the start of 191
will be plentiful and cheap. with condi-
tions sound again. with business inter
oh 70 oh vol Iof;
foundations. There is aptness in the OBJ
servation Of one Stock Exchange firm
that, Complain as they may, the rail
road Will still borrow capital freely and
spend it enthusiastically, If only it be-
comes available
When the railroads spend industries
cannot 1ag-good times can have no
heartier promoter.
From a technical standpoint the se-
curity market persists in offering favor
able features to the bear side. Ultra
conservative opinions expressed by lead
ing railroad managers. some Of them
even radically pessinlistic, steel trade
uncertainties, the counseIs to exceeding
prudence from high financial quarters.
the disclosure that they who are the in
vestment markets most capable leaders
are merely sitting tight. making few
new market commitments-aH these are
influential factors against Wall Street.
optimism; but above all other factors
there intrudes the daily proof that the
public is absolutely out of the Street
and shows no inclination to re-eRter--
speculative lethargy more and more I.
daily record.
Yet ft is not 70 be thought that while
the controllers Of capital are abstaining
from Stock Exchange activity they are
at the same time ignoring all other bust
ness opportunities. 1t will be found
when normal financial life resumes that
there has been plenty of quiet activity:
that there have been large accomplish
ments-none the less consequential be-
cause they are not chronicled by the
Stock Exchange ticker. Capital has not
been extinguished and capital is forever
on the alert for proft-the Wall Street
tape an incident. not an essential. in
American business expansion Take.
merely by way of example. the illustra-
ton quoted in this review regarding ths
ov,r,or5;uor1- deyeIoprneut taking place