The sun., 1910-11-03

Mr.. Prentire's Forecast.
| Laying aside for the moment his pur-
suit Of charwomen, colored porters and
Democrats to obtain voluntary cam
paign contributions, the Hon. EzRA p
PRENTICE on Tuesday did THE Sun the
honor OF analyzing certain election esti-
mates printed in its news columns. BY
means Of instruments specially devised
for him the experienced Republican
state chairman was able to dediucs both
from the figures supplied by THE Sun
and those not supplied that the plurality
up State for the Hon. HENRY L. SrIM-
son would be- exactly iO7, ,4O7. not more
and not less.
This forecast thus achieved by Mr..
PRENTICE shows that the Republican
plurality Of 1908 will be reduced u $50.
No one knows better than Mr.. PRENTICE
how excessively modest is this estimate
that not more than II 900 Republicans
north Of the Harlem intend Ia vote for
the Hon JOHN A. DIX. This would mean
change of approximately three and
one-half votes in each of the 3-O67 cleo
tinn districts outside Of this city. The
, Righteousness of such an estimate il too
palpable To require debate.
in point of actual fact the information
from up State received by Mr.. PREM
TICE mp To the present time Indicates
plainly enough that the change will be
nearly il not quite twice as large. Thus
estimating at six to the election dis
trict figure which Mr.. PRENTICE can
hardly trlithfully describe as excessive
! in the face of his own reports. the num-
Der Of Republicans who are known to
favor the Democratic nominee. the de-
cline in Republican plurality would be-
"a. .sO4, which would reduce the Hughes
plurality Of 1905 to 92,4s2. A loss Of five
10 the election district would nsssn q
reduction to 9s, 500.
Republican reports from upstate
districts which are matter Of common
know ledge in political "ircles actually
indicate at the present time a Republi-
, can plurality of less than 100 .Ooo. But in
those reports no attention whatever is
paid TO the loss that will result from the
fact that the Republican State commit
tee will be literally without Il dollar 90
send mp State on election dsy The MIN
bcr u votes this poverty will cost the
Republican ticket il variously estimated.
and no accurate measurement il possi-
bic. since the condition itself is isllnprece-
dented. From 70 .nOO 20 5000, however.
-. Il,-., 70 hx, 60
estimate of this loss IL Is because of
these two clements that tho best in
formed Republican observers believe
that the upstate Republican plIralilv
vii! not exceed sO.gD. and may easily
fall below GO,OJo.
Such conclusions, however rsessd
hardly bc expected from MIR PRENTICE
Tabniaiion Of preelection canvasses b
for him q new business. since in New
York county the Parsons regime has
never been able To- get a canvass, that
was valuable save a. IA humorous doc,i-
ment But even tho obviously ina~c,I-
rate forecast Mr. PRENTICE violently
foists upon The Sun. that showing a
Stimson plurality Of but lO7 iO7 north Of
the Harlem. is "A concession Of Repub-
lican defeat Tor all but himself, when
the plnrllities Of the Democratic state
ticket IN this city IN The last two Of Years
are considered. Even in 1902 BIRD =
CoLFR had l23. iI3. whsle IN 1906 LEWIS =
CHANLER had above 1900
For ins'lring a Republican defeat Mr.
PRENTICE has made adequate Conces-
SION. but for the fact IT -e-ms his esti-
mates are far too modest.