The National tribune., 1910-10-06

of them. If the Republicans should
lose in New York Stats-and it does not
seem as likely that they Will lose As it
did a week or two ago-Col Roosevelt
will be left in an UncnNiahie POSITION
He must take the responsibility for nav
ing stirred up y great commotlon Win
in the party and for having given great
offense to the Vice President. And Pres
ident Taft Will not be in very deslraple
position for having given his assent TO
proceedings that reflected upon the ma II
who stands next to him in the Repuo-
lican official roster.
Republican Chances.
But there is quite a chance now tflat
the Republicans will carry New 1ol x
after the performance OF the De!il az.
ic Convention and the refusal OF Mayor
Gavnor, of New York City, 10 take the
nomination. And if the Republicans do
win New York State they may nave Il
hold upon the House of Representatives.
for the next two years an" tne party
may be in high favor again. Oh course
If is Il little early yet to make Such
prophesies. for there are dire mutter-
ings, and the general expectation Is that
the Democrats will sweep the country
in November. Rut-if the Republicans
do carry New York State--I'ol. itocSe-
Welt promises to be on the hlgh wave
of popularity again. He VIII lie the
undisputcd leader of the Republican
Party, and President Taft as one who
stood in with him and helped win the
victory. will have another chance to
prove that his Administration deserves
popular approval
Conscduently the situation becomes
doublv interesting. One noteworthy
phase Of it is the attitude of the New
.,r-1 70 ~
dent At the Saratoga convention they
were even more bitter against the Pres
ident than against the eN-Presldent.
1t was openly charged by National
Committeeman w. l.. Ward that Presl-
dent Taft approved of the selection OF
Vice President Sherman for temporary
presiding officer hy the State Committee.
The President was quoted as having
said that he did not want Col. Roose-
Welt sitting at the head of the table
The charges in substance came down to
the point that the President had first
approved of Vice President Sherman,
and then, when Col. Roosevelt raised
a great rumpuS over the defeat of HIM
self, changed front and denounced the
Vice President.
Whether the conservative forces in
the New York Republican ranks will
carry their warfare to the point OF
knifing the ticket remains much in
doubt. They are very bitter both against
the President and the ex-President, but
the platform that Col Roosevelt die
tated IS on the whole pretty conserVa-
tive. AS is characteristic of him, he
talked very radical doctrine in the
West, and when he got down to busi-
ness with the New York platform wrote
a very conservative document. 1t is
a matter of speculation what the at
titude of two great factions of
RI 1,r
the old guards followers sulk there may
be ensuing disaster. But 1t is also
worth bearing in mind that there is an
enormous independent vote in New York
City and State. 1t has been with the
Republicans for many years, but should
Ii now swing to the Democrats. as was
likely. nothing would prevent the DEM
ocratic victory that the politicians have
been prophesying for the last two or
three months.
ROoseveIt's New Nationalism."
There is an intense opposition in New
York to Col. Roosevclt's renewed in
reference in politics and also to his
new nationaliSm." Tntimations have
been given that the financial and busi-
ness influences of the State would strike
at him by defeating the candidates he
nominated. They will hardly be pow
pendent voters are largely in sympathy
with the demand for a change. The
Democratic convention at Rochester
adopted platform which will prob
ably suit the Independent voters bet
ter than will the Republican platform.
It is much more specificSn its recon-
mendations for direct primaries. which
Is the burning issue in New York State
politics 1t is more explicit on other
reform issues and comes out squarely
for a downward revision of the tariff,
where the Republican platform declares
in favor Of the Payne-Aldrich law. But
the Rochester convention was no.
toriously dominated by Tammany Hall,
and Leader Charles F. Murphy wrote
out the slate for nominations. He may
have bosSed" the Democratic conven-
ton no more than Theodore Roosevelt
"bossed'' the Republican convention,
but Charles F. Murphy is not as popu-
lar with New York voters as is Theo-
dore Roosevelt.
Murphy nominated John A. Dix from
up the state for Governor. 1t is not
yet apparent what sort of a run he will
make. He is not an orator; neither is
he a man who will make a pleasing
platform appearance. Probably he will
satisfy the business and financial in
terests that want to smite Col RoGse-
Welt. but he may not please a great
contingent of Independent voters, par
ticularly those that follow the political
fortunes of William r. Hearst. 1t is
expected that Hearst will fight Dix, be-
cause Dix bolted when Hearst was the
Democratic nominee for Governor some
years ago. If Hearst does not Join
forces with Roosevelt and virtually be-
come Republican in this campaign
he will undoubtedly do the next best
thing for the Republicans-run an In
dependence League ticket.
Republican Prospects Frightening.
Therefore. the New York mix-up is
more or less bewildering, but out of II
all stands prominently the fact that
Republican prospects are brighter than
before the State conventions assenbI
The Republican cause looked I'D from
the moment when Mayor Gaynor sur
prised the whole State by announcing
that he would not he a candidate and
by supplementing that announcement
with another that he would not accept
If nominated. There was general
conviction that the outcome of the cam.
paign would be certain, if Gaynor head.
ed the Democratic ticket. He would
be invincible. Within two or three
weeks the situation will probably set.
tie a little. and il will be easier to fore.
cast the Republican prospects. 1t is
claimed that there is a tremendous un.
dcrcurrent of opposition to Roosevelt
that the people are becoming heartily
tired of him and are only waiting ar
opportunity to demonstrate ii. There
are many skeptics on that point. A
good MANY c11gpl