Omaha daily bee., 1910-04-10
OLD GUEssES AT THE CENSUS
Early Prophets who Did weu TIN
the Birth Rate De-
cline,

Experts I'm the science OF statistics think
the superintendent Of the census, when
he estimates the population OF the United
States In the census year 1910 at something
between ss,OOO,OO and 81, 1000, 900, allows him
self rather more leewRy than a prophet
with his inside Information need demand.
Estimating the population OF the United
States ought not to be a very difficult
matter these days even for an amateur,
they say. The birth rate, death rate, i'm
migration, emigration and everything else.
If there IL anything else bearing upon the
subject, are all pretty well known year by
year since 1900 for all, or nearly all, parts
Of the United states, SO that an estimate
made today should show figures pretty
close to the results Of the actual census,
perhaps as near as 10000 or 100000.
one Of the odd and disconcerting things
about the history OF statistics Is the way
IN which the population sharps OF a cen
fury ago estimated the future without the
aids that should enable the census bureau
to come within a few thousands of actual
census figures. In 1916 the editor Of Niles
Register made a detailed estimate Of what
the census Of 1890 would show as to the
population Of the United States. He really
had very little to go on. and he declined
20 say just how he reached his conclusions,
pNN ~ NNNAN vi ANeo hANNAA WV ~ NHO
census figures.
He said he had for years imposed that
the census of 1890 would show a population
OF about 10000, 900. His guess was a trifle
over 9,964,OCO and the actual enumeration
was a trifle over $685., 900. In some details
his guebs was sstonishlngly near.
He gave an estimate for every state and
territory, and for New England. Mary
land and Ohio he was only about $500 out,
In several of these states he was within
a few hundreds of the actual figures, and
In none was he more than about 10000 out.
He was within four of the actual census
figures in North Carolina. 1t was mainly
in the newer states that he guessed too
nigh.
The Boston Recorder tried it's hand at
census guessing in 1916 with interesting re-
suits. The editor took little or no account
Of immigration which was then trlfling.
but he figured Out from the census Of 1880,
1850 and 1910 that population doubled every
twenty-three years. AS there seemed plenty
Of room for expansion and race suicide had
not then been heard Of he concluded that
the increase would go on at that rate for
at least a century.
Upon this theory he estimated the popu-
, lation for every twenty-three years up to
1925. He had before him figures of the
census of 1910, which showed about 7,24O, 900
r inhabitants. He placed the population of
1888 at 1900, 900, of 1856 at 100000, of 1879
: at So, 900, 600, of 1902 at 1l2,O 900, 900 and of 1925
/ at 224, 600. He must have been very
, close to the actual figures in 1888, for the
census Of 1890 gave nearly 100000 people.
He was not far off in 1856, for the census
=. of 1850 showed nearly 20, 200, 600 inhabitants
and that of 1850 rather more than 3S, 400 OO,
but he was fully 100000 too high in 1879
= and more than 27,OOO,OoO too high in 1902,
even If the colonies, of which he had no
inkllng. be taken into account. His esti-
mate for 1925 seems likely at the current
. rate Of increase in this country to be con-
siderably more than 100, 100000 too high.
The source Of his error lay in the de-
clining birth rate, which he lid not fore
see. When he made his estimate the death
rate had been steadily decreasing since
1880. when it was rs per 1000. BY 1890 it
= had sunk to a shade over 2Oh per 1,OOO.
The losses OF the civil war also helped to
throw out his calculations and the huge
- increase Of immigration, of which he had
. no thought, was not sufficient to make up
= for the checks to population left out Of
= account.
= There was much interest the country
> over in the results OF the census Of 1920,
when the population surprised all but those
: who had studied earlier statistics. Before
= the general results OF that census were
made known the Albany Plough Boy made
/. Il computation for that year and for each
decennial period up to 1900.
The statistician knew that the birthrate
. as yet showed no sign of falling off and
g that the death rate was rather rapidly de-
a creasing. while there was a vast unoccupied
territory open to settlers, though Texas
and the region beyond the Rockies were
n still in the hands Of strangers and the fate
7 Of the Oregon country was uncertain. The
Plough Boy had no suspicion that the
trifing immigration Of the period would
! grow to hundreds Of thousands annually
within the next thirty years. He was not
= so sanguine as the editor, who had counted
u upon the doubling Of the population every
tWenty-three years, however, and he
worked upon an deliberately detailed plan
for he gives his results not only in thou
n sands, but down TO units.
lie was nearly 200, 600 too high for 1920
almost 200, OCJ too high for 1880 and nearly
. Coz, COO too high for 1870, and again OO,OOC
:. too high for 1850. He had counted toe
much upon the birthrate, but by this time
4 INN igratlon had begun to be heavy and
! his estimate for 1860 was less than 10000
# too high, He was more than l2OO,OOO toe
high for 1870 and more than 100000 toe
high for 1850. His calculation for 1880 was
more than 100000 too high and for 1sN
a $500 600 too high.
Niles Of the Register undertook estimate
T. OF the population for decenniaI periods
about 1890 and proved a better prophet than
his contemporaries. He was not more
Than $4,000 out in any census year up Ia
= and including 1860. and in some years he
was within about SO,OCO OF the census fig
h, ures.
His calculations ware hopelessly wrong
y for the first time as to the census of 1870
and thereafter to the end OF the century
he was more and more at variance witt
"A actual census results, Like his fellow
Is ststisticians he presumed upon a %continu.
the high birthrate and upon a steady les
a sening of the death rate, but expected No
great things Of immigration. The element.
~ which he neglected balanced pretty fairly
- up 20 1850, but the havoc OF the civil wal
m and the check to the birthrate set him
le wrong after that, so that even the vas