The Brattleboro reformer. (Brattleboro, Vt.) 1907-1912, 1909-05-14
A WEEK THE LONGEST FORECAST
meteorological Solar Observatory on
Mt. Weather in the Blue Ridge.

come, the weather sharps say, when they
can forecast the weather for months or
seasons; that is, the general character,
whether warm or dry, wet or cold. In
recent months the weather bureau has
been issuing long distance and wide
range forecasts for a week or more in adj
vance, Most of them have been verified,
ana they have been of value to agricul-
tural and commercial interests.
They are based upon study of atmos-
pherlc conditions over the whole northern
hemisphere, more directly in the summer
on the general circulation OF the atmos.
phere over the Pacific and Atlantic
oceans. In winter the great continental
areas OF high-air pressure, and more
peclalIy the Asatic high area appear to
dominate the general atmospheric changes
OF the northern hemisphere. BY a study
OF the association and interrelation of the
greater areas of high and low barometrc
pressure is the forecast of weather
changes a week in advance made possible
Many storms are first located in eastern
Asa, whence they drift eastward over the
north Pacific and enter the United States.
They have been known to pass east from
the Rocky mountains over the country to
the Atlantic coast, thence across the At
lantc ocean to Europe, through Europe.
reaching Siberia by way of western Rus
sla, and after journeying over the north
Pacific ocean re-enter America. 1t is
thought that most of the storm areas die
a natural death before encircling the
globe.
The sun is apparently the prime cause
OF every change of weather, according to
the theory now generally followed
Abundance Of suns rays at the equator
results in that portion of the earth be
coming intensely hot; absence of suns
rays at the poles makes them land of
Ice. The suns rays, by heating one por-
ton of the land more than another, cause
winds, cyclones and hurricanes. At GER
tain periods the sun is much brighter and
hotter than others, and if the order of
the changes could be solved the general
character of the seasons could be pre-
dicted. The United States affords par
ticularly favorable conditions to study the
relation of sun and weather owing to the
fact that there is continuous drift of
storms across the extensive country.
Several years ago congress, on the rec
ommendation of the secretary of agricul-
ture, gave the weather bureau sum of
money for the purpose of founding a
meteorological solar observatory. An I'M
named peak in the Blue Ridge, later
named Mt Weather by the chief of the
weather bureau, was selected as the site.
| 1t is in Virginia, and its elevation is
about 100 feet.
Buildings were erected and equipped
with all sorts of valuable instruments for
obtaining observations of the sun. BY
these observations at Mt. Weather the
bureau hopes to be able to unlock the
mysteries of all weather phenomena and
thereby fortel the years of famine and
of plenty.
Another feature of the work at Mt. |
Weather is the research observations of
the upper air currents by means of kites |
and balloons equipped with self-register-
ipp Ct
ord temperature, altitude. air pressure. |
moisture and movements of the air at
great attitudes. From the data thus Sc
cured deductions can be made as to
aerial movements and conditions not re-
vealed on the ground.
The higher air currents have regular
ity that is missing at the earth's surface.
ing elevation of the land and bodies of
water These data are of great value in
the making of forecasts for the middle
Atlantic and New England states ;
The daily forecasts of the weather bu- {
reau are based upon actual instrumental '
throughout the United States and neigh !
boring regions These observations are 4
taken simultaneously and telegraphed to /
central stations, where they are charted a
for study by experts trained to forecast i
the weather conditions which may be ex-
pected to prevail during the following SO v
hours. From these charts the forecaster $
is able to trace the path of storm areas d
and also to forecast their subsequent I
courses and the occurrence of other t
weather conditions o
It is the opinion of many meteorolo- a
yists that the publications of so-called +
ong range forecasts do harm, as practic- d
lily all are based on no scientific princi r.
Die and are of no practical value. The h
hap h,,pn of ,r,,1a OF IrY
ions are for definite time and place. n
md are issued for only two or three days Of
n advance because the expert forecasters :,
# the bureau understand the futility of .,
ong range forecasts. g.
The forecasts for a week or more in adj -,
'ance are made at the central station at "
1t is declared there is no .,
enerally accepted theory or rational sys- ~
EN- upon which any person outside of y
he Washington experts can make a fore -
asst for a longer period than a day or !.
wo y;
Some of the outside long range fore ~
asters may be honest, believing that they al
ave discovered new physical law or We
meteorological principle. but most of 50
leir predictions are of a vague nature ~ ~
: to specific types of weather, and so u"
AIMED that storm occurring anywhere
thin radius of 2000 miles may be con- 9Iy
dered by them as fulfllment of the enc
'recast. i1i
Several years ago a bulletin on Long tn tn
ange Weather Forecasting" by Prof. f. M'
Garriott was prepared under the di-
ction of Willis L. Moore, chief of the
Gather bureau. It presents a verifca- ,
on of the work of the most prominent
long range weather forecasters in the SUI
nited States and shows the fallacy of SUI
cir predictions and the impossibility of oei
sing weather predictions on planetary mi
fuences. The bulletin closes with the mo
lowing nine conclusions covering all dai
eories:- Ut
l. That systems of long range weather cltN
that depend upon planetary INK
moon phases, cycles. posi- re-
ms or movements; stellar influences or the
,r deviations: indications afforded by mo'
of animals birds, planets, len,
d estimates based on days, months, the
,sons and wears have no legitimate are
SEES. IS
}. That meteorologists have made ex- fec
ustive examinations and comparisons in
the purpose of associating the wealth its
with the various phases and positions the
the moon in an earnest endeavor to nor
Ike advances in the science along the and
2 of practical forecasting and have Nor
md that while the moon. and perhaps Seir
planets. exert some influence upon at find
Sphere tides. the influence IS too slight and
obscure to Justify a consideration OF pass
ar and planetary effects IN the actual mild
rk of weather forecasting. =, vote
That the stars have no appreciate A !
uence on the weather. DAYS
That animals, birds and plants show on