The Birmingham age-herald., 1909-12-10
SMALL ESTIMATE
 ON COTTON CROP W. p. Brown of New York Issues BuIIiSh Statement MANY FACTORS HURT CROP Drouth, High Temperatures and Boil Weevl Combined To lnjure Cot ton and Brown Says 1o,3oo,ooo
 Bales Will Be Made.
MANY FACTORS HURT CROP

Nsw York, December 9.-(Special.) .)-The following statement on the cotton crop of the south was made today by W. P. Brown, the cotton broker:
 'I beg to submit for your information my annual estimate of the cotton crop for this year. Estimates of 1eos-1eos, 10. 300 900 bales, commercial, which includes linters and city crops. The result Is based on the most reliable information that I have been able to gather from all sections of the cotton belt.
 My estimate by states as follows Ala bama, 1,o50 600; Arkansas. 725,00o; Florida. 75.ooo; Georgia 1.sOo,oOo; Louisiana. 275,ooo; Mississippi, 100000; North Carolina, etc, 70o.OoO; South Carolina. 1,5O,oOo; Tennes- see, etc., 275,o00; Oklahoma, 625,0O0; Texas, 2.475,OoO. Total 1O,SO0.0O0 The weights of the bales this year are about 8 per cent lighter than last year. and the spinning quality about per cent less, or a total of about 5 per cent.
 ''This will give us a crop of s,SooOo bales. equivalent to last years weight and spinning, quality or say in round figures 100000 bales less than last years crop, which is a calamity. indeed.
 My investigation shows that Georgia and the Carolinas have produced full average crops but all the other states have practically made failures, caused by drouth, extreme high temperatures and the ravages of the boil weevil. Texas was damaged more than any other state on account of the drouth and Louisiana more on account of the weevil. The weevil did great damage also in the states of Texas, Arkansas and Mississippi and the damage would have been still greater had 1t not been for the extreme heat and dry weather which checked the weevil but damaged the crop. This being fact. l think l can safely say that this crop never had a chance to be a big crop.
 The boil weevil is spreading and will very likely cover the entire state of Mis- sissippi and probably a good portion of Alabama within another year. This, in my judgment, will prevent a full crop being raised next year, and until some thing is discovered that will destroy the weevil, bumper crops are out of the ques- tions as 1t Is a known fact that the weevil do a great deal more damage to cotton crops in woodland sections than they do In the open prairies of Texas.
 ITO illustrate, Louisiana produced in 1904 1,10o,0o0 bales and estimate her produc- ton this year at 275000 and this shortage Is caused principally by the ravages of the boil weevil, so 1t is not hard to pie ture what we may expect in the way of a cotton crop when the weevil spreads over the entire cotton belt when we glance at the great destruction the weevil has done to the cotton crop in Louisiana
 As far as the spinning and consum- ing world is concerned 1t is very un- fortunate that this years crop is such a small one. as a big one was never so badly needed The consumption has been and is now running on a basis of at least 1s,50o.oOo bales annually and with such a small crop of course 1t means much smaller consumption, though 1 feel confident that spinners will take and spin every available bale of cotton that has been grown this year and will also spin up the small reserve supplies that they carried over from last year. I never believed, however, that spinners' stocks on the first of last September were more than normal If they had been, they would not have taken the great quantity up to this time that they have. With the exception of last year, spinners' taings of American cotton since Sep tember l are the largest on record CThey took last year 13,314000 and their talk ings up to date are only 67,0TJ bales less than last year.) and prices rang ing now about $50 a bale higher than at the corresponding date last year. This. to my mind, is quite convincing that they have only taken this large quantity at the beginning of the sea- son because they actually needed 1t.
 Tt is frequently said that high prices fhaax | differ Snn1aWhqt a from the majority of the people on this point. Prices are only relative and firmly believe that the consuming world is now in a better condition financially to buy goods made out of 20-cent cotton than they were a few years ago goods made out of 9-cent cotton. If cotton was available this year the consumption
 might run considerably above 13.500, ,000
 as a great deal more cotton is being used
 this year on account of wool selling at
 double the price it was at this time last year.
 There are certain grades of wool that
 were selling at 20 cents B pound last year that are now selling at over 40 cents. You can substitute cotton for wool linen for silk. but you cannot sub
 stitute anything for cotton, hence the world must have cotton. even if it has to pay much higher prices than those ruling today, which I believe it will have to do, based ,on purely supply and demand bases and my advice to spinners is to protect themselves as early as possible buying their supplies to run them until the end of the sea- son.
 "A word to the cottongrowers-in my | judgment they will do well to market | slowly what they have left, as I ex- | pect much higher prices"