The times and democrat. [volume] (Orangeburg, S.C.) 1881-current, 1909-11-06
WILL GO HIGHER
Frank Hayne Says Fifteen Gents is Too
Little for Cotton
THE CROP VERY SHORT

kAEE UANU4 TLAsG D9GVAGG :.
The Big. Cotton Man, Who is Ma
tive Of This State, is Optimistic.
! and Reviews Recent Market His
|, tory and Deduces Strong Belief
in Yet Higher Price Levels.
u aIr. Frank B. Havne, South Caro-
,linian now living In New Orleans,
who has iabored consistently for
higher prices for cotton this season,
has outlined his reasons for saying
that fifteen. cents is too, little. for
cotton as follows.
when the government bureau
report, issued on August 2, showed a
condition of 71.9 per cent, felt con-
l,vinced the crop could not possibly
lreach 100000 bales, and that cot
| ton was selling far below its real
value. When the government report,
Iissued on September 2, showed a con-
l5,ition OF 63.7 per cent, l felt satis-
fled that 11,500,O00 bales was the
maximum possible for the crop and
at that time received a telegram from
Mr. J. N. Wisner OF New Orleans,
asking Mr.. w. P. Brown and myself
Ito telegraph him In full our views
ION the situation. Mr. Brown was
absent. so l. replied to Mr.. Wisner
;by telegraph as follows:
1--we look at the situation as fol-
Flows: Discountlng every favorable
;condition that can arise until Decem-
;ber /, the government report indi-
Gates maximum crop of 11,250,o0O,
and with unfavorable conditions
might easily be 100000 bales less.
| Consumption last year. 1S.loo,ooo.
Iinx spite of short time In England
and continent. With largest Ameri-
can crop ever produced the price
advanced $40 a bale while being
marketed and the visible supply Is
far less than two years ago. With
a certainty that 13.500.0O0 will real
ay be needed by the country and that
probably. less than 11,500,O0o will
be grown. an eventual advance is
simply unavoidable. Under normal
conditions the market should have
certainly advanced to 13 cents yes
terday, but was kept down by the
enormous selling OF the bear clique.
These sellers base their action on
the supposed helplessness of the
South, thinking the South will be
forced to sell its cotton at any price
the spinners are willing to take 1t
at. We consider that the compe-
tition between spinners who will
certainly require 100000 bales
monthly will take care o fthis So
called distressed cotton. If the
bankers of the South will help the
farmer to market his cotton slowly,
we firmly believe it will be worth
lis cents in the next 60 days. The
weakness in our opinion Of the
bears argument is that, although the
producer may be foolish enough to
be willing to sell his cotton far be-
low its actual value, We hardly think
that the spinner will be foolish
enough, when he fully realizes the
facts Of the case, not to start buy
ing freely at these prices and thus
avoid the scramble for spot cotton
that will surely take place some time
| during the season.
1.-The Southern farmer has sold at
| least 100000 bales of cotton on
which he realized probably $780,
100000. 1t was very hard to con-.
vince the farmer that II cents was
not an extreme price for his pro-
duct, but through the efforts OF q
few Southern men, they finally rec
lized the fact that they were sacri-
ficing their cotton, and believe that
at least s50,oOo,OoO more has been
obtained for the cotton marketed
to date than would have been il it
had not been for the efforts of this
| small coterie of Southern men.
my prediction on September Of
IS cents in the next go days has no"
| come true, but at that time thought
the crop would be from 11,25O.OO0
to 11,boO,000 bales. now feel con-
fident that the maximum for this
crop is 10,750,00O bales. The prob
| ability is that 1t will be under TO-
100000 bales; and there is pos
sibility of its not reaching 10000
600 bales. Under the present con-
ditions | now feel that Is cents is
as much too cheap for cotton as II
1-2 cents seemed to ME on September
3.
"In 10000, known as the 'Sully
year the crop was 10,0l1,0oo bales
and the consumption only lO,OS3,-
600 bales. and last year the con-
sumption increased 3,074,00O bales.
or 3O.4s per cent. The visible sup
ply on the 1st of September, this
season, was 1,472,O00 and on the Isl
Of September, 1903, was $4,000
bales or only $4,000 bales less,
therefore In the 'Sully year, with 4
I r:,, ,.,,-1,- oo Cont bCr Of