The Birmingham age-herald. [volume] (Birmingham, Ala.) 1902-1950, 1909-08-21
COTTON CROP NOW
HANGS IN BALANCE
Small Crop Predictions Are
Most In Faver
TOO MUCH HOT WEATHER
Next Government Report Is Expected
to be BuIish But the Trade Is
Still Bearish and Must be
Convinced.
TOO MUCH HOT WEATHER

New York, August 2O.-See-sawing with
in moderate range, cotton prices have
made no decided move, despite the issu-
ance of several very bullish crop reports
and the fact that temperatures in Texas
have been extraordinarily high, I'D to ia
degrees. 1t has also been very hot else
where In the southwest. Oklahoma, Ar
kansas, Louisiana and even Mississippi
and Alabama have not escaped. There are
fears that the extraordinary heat may
spread to the eastward. Marked crop de-
terioration Is reported in Texas. Several
statisticians have put the condition of
the whole crop at only 6S to 70 per cent.
One makes the total yield only II, 900, 900
bales, even allowing 100000 for Texas,
while some others insist this is too high.
Some guesses on the crop, here given
for what they are worth, go as low as
100000 bales.
Trade has improved across the water
especially at Manchester where the de-
mand has suddenly increased. The New
York stock decreases steadily. The con-
sumption of American cotton this sea-
son is expected by some experienced cot
ton men and close students of conditions
in the trade to be the largest ever known.
They instance the fact that there is a
more confident feeling among the mer-
chants of all the great trading nations
Stocks of merchandise are believed to be
comparatively low after several years of
cautious buying.
The date for the next government re-
MORT cotton lie or nd
hardly fail to be bullish If it is 10 per
cent 1t will have to be compared with
rs year ago, 72.7 two years ago when
the crop was only 11.375,oOo bales. and
72.1 In 1905 when it was only 11,346 900
bales Mr. Sully had five short crops in
succession to build his famous campaign
of 10000 upon, and in most of those
years the September condition was low,
ranging from GA in 1902 to IA in 1901, al
though for an exception in 1903 the Sep
TENDER condition was for some reason
put as high as s1.2 1t did not prevent the
crop in that year from being another
failure, 10,011,0 900 bales.
The Sully era saw crops of only 9,436, 900
to 1o,72s,000 bales, with an acreage rang
ing from A.275,O0O to 2s.015,OOO acres as
contrasted with 100000 and upward
during the last four years. We have a
larger acreage now to reckon upon, but
the conditions have been so bad, accord
Ing to many reports for some time past
that some very experienced people look
for yield of less than 12,0OO,0OO bales,
which they consider would be practically
a failure in view of the increased acre
age and the largely augmented consump-
ton of American cotton. One explana-
ton Is that very many believe that pres
ent prices cannot be sustained In the
teeth of an expected big crop movement
early in the season.
Bull speculation has received several
severe setbacks within the last few
months. There are those who think that
the damage to the crop is exaggerated
and even heat privately reported as high
as 11S degrees in some parts of the south
west has been in some respects benefi-
cial Such temperatures tend to kill the
boil weevil. Moreover, the minimum tenn
peratures have in many cases been as low
as 6S to 70 degrees. The future Of prices
hinges largely on the size Of the crop