Evening star., 1909-07-18
BULL GAME STILL ON
Holders of Stock Find Re-
turns Justify Them.
PROFESSIONALS ARE TIMID
Market Leaders Now Watching the
Crop Outcome.
|INDUsTRIALS ARE EXPANDING
Interest in Morgan's Return From
Europe-Steel Stocks Monopoly
of Attention.
|INDUsTRIALs ARE EXPANDING
ial Correspondence of The star

Special Correspondence OF The star
NEW YORK, July II, 1859.
The stock market acts as though the
high price level may have been reached
In some Of the specfalties having popu'
lar favor the price is jiggled UP little
now and then but not to stick. Or
every rise that is at all out Of the Or
dinary the market gets more stock thar
seems to be wanted. This Is not true
Of course, in every instance, but applies
to the general run OF issues. The full-
ness Of the market is more In evidence
in rails than in the industrisls. In the
latter division there are still many stocks
that are strongly backed by insiders and
those who see ahead an enormous and
long continued activity. Especially Is
this true with the railroad equipment
stocks. At the same time there Is no
disposition on the part Of the great mul-
titude OF holders OF high priced rail-
road stocks to get out.
1t is only the professional element that
shows symptoms of timidity, and of hav-
ing had enough of the bull game for the
time 'being. There is a large and tmpor-
tant element composed of very rich men
representing great individual fortunes
and pooled interests which are carry
ing heavy lines Of securities with money
borrowed at low rates from banks and
trust companies. This stuff comes out
on the rallies. a market feature which
is believed by many to foreshadow extern
sive distribution by the important IN
terests In anticipation of hardening
money market in the early autumn.
Indeed, there is very good reason to
look for higher interest rates as the
last half of the year advances. From
the present outlook the country will have
crops worth in money from $5OO.OoO.OO OOO
to $1,000, 600, 600 more than last year.
Where there is a possibility of short
age In amount. as in cotton. the de-
ficiency in that respect is more than like
ly to be made up In higher prices. In
other directions it is reasonably safe to
estimate largely iAcreased production. es-
pecially In the case Of corn and the hay
crops. The unfavorable weather in the
east and south is having decided effect
on commodity prices, but as yet the re-
fection on stocks Is not important, al
though the passive influence of this fac
tor is against further advance. With
a reasonable certainty of largely in
creased need for money for crop moving
purposes tendency to curtail large bor-
rowing for speculative purposes is only to
be expected. Added to this anticipated
demand may be mentioned the steadily
tries. The demand from this quarter is
becoming more and more manifest.
Back to Normal in October.
BY October 1t is safe to say, the great
bulk Of manufacturing industries will be
fully back to normal and with that re-
instatement of activity an enlarged vol
ume of merchandising may be looked
for. That, too. will call for more money.
Great numbers of ambitious promotion
schemes are coming to head which Will
call for the investment Of vast aggre-
gate sum. And then, there must be
taken into account the steady drain OF
gold for export. Just why the slld
should be going out of the country in
anywhere near its present volume is one
of the things not easily explained
The international trade balance con-
tinues to run strongly In our favor and
there is nothing to show that the o d
world has been turning back upon this
country any considerable quantities of
American stocks and bonds The tourist
army is rather more numerous than
usual and seems to be spending more
than the normal amount of money on the
other side. That, however, does not give
sufficient excuse for the tide of gold
shipments Europeward. The reasonable
explanation is that our financial institu-
tions are Strengthening their credits and
increasing their balances abroad. By so
doing they can reduce the visible surplus
in the money centers OF the United
States, thereby creating a deceptive ap-
pearance of diminished stocks and still
keep available large funds to be drawn
against in case of need. 1t is almost as
easy these days for international bankers
to draw on foreign balances as 1t Is on
home deposits.
Mr.. Morgans return. which is sched-
u'ed for the 22d, will be followed by all
kinds of happenings, according to the
gossip of the street 1t Is gravely in
sisted by the stock exchange specialists
In Steel stocks that at the July meeting
of the directors of the big trust OH the
9th instant action will be taken look ;ng
to an increase in dividends on the COM
mon. This assumption is probably en-
tirely unwarranted, although nothing
which may be done in that direction will
be surprising. Mr.. Morgan has always
been in favor of a liberal policy toward
the stockholders of that corporation, and
now that the conservative influence rep
resented in the person of the late III. II.
Rogers is passing away II is not improb-
able that stockholders will fare better in
the matter of dividends. The company
S now earning enough to Justify an In
crease In the common and nobody on
earth believes that the amount of ne,
will be less for many years to como
Estimates Of Net Earnings.
Some estimates by really conserv ative
specialists put net earnings for the las,
half of 1909 applicable to common divi
dends above l. per cent and for 1910 any.
where from IS to 20 per cent, this on the
basis of a completed Gary plant and z
productive capacity of 100000 tons. :,
total considerably in excess of $5OO,aOO,
900 has been put into the property since
it's organization out of earnings, an(
shareholders are beginning to demand
that a part of this amount and all i'm
portant future expenses for new plant:
be charged to capital account and the,
given a show at the amount realized
from the proceedings. Talk something
along these lines has been rife for a goot
while, although ignored n all official uis
cussion, SO far as known. 1t may ol
may not have influence in shaping tn,
future policy of the corporation.
1t Is looked upon as q day lost tina
does not carry in the news bulletins au
thoritative announcement of the furthe
convalescence of Mr.. Hartman From
the frequent recurrence of Mr. Harri
mans complete restoration to health ant
the activity of his convalescences h,
must have been very much sicker mar
than was admitted. A man cannot trave
such long route toward recovery at 81
lively gait without going a good ways
But really. flippancy aside, there is
real anxiety on account of Mr. Harri