The watchman and southron. [volume] (Sumter, S.C.) 1881-1930, 1909-11-06

New Orleans. Nov. S.-Mr. Frank
B. Hayne. who has labored constant
iy for higher cotton prices this season
has outlined the reasons why he is
bullish on the market at is cents, as
follows:
When the government bureau re-
port. issued on August 2. showed
condition OF 71.s per cent. felt con-
vinced the crop could not possibly
reach 10000. 200 bales. and that cot
ton was selling far below it's real val
ue. When the government report, is
sued on September 2, showed con-
dition Of 5s.7 per cent. I felt satisfied
that l1.5o0.000 bales was the maxi
mum possible for the crop and at that
time received a telegram from Mr..
J. N. wisner, OF New Orleans, asking
w. p. Brown and myself TO telegraph
him In full our views on. the situa-
tiOn. Mr.. Brown was absent 80 re-
piled to Mr.. Wisner. by telegraph, as
| follows: W..
I'VE look at the situation as fol-
lows. Discounting every favorable
condition that can arise until Decem-
Der 1. the government report indi-
Gates a maximum crop of 11,250.00O,
and with unfavorable conditions might
easily be 100000 bales less. Con-
sumption last year 1900, 900, in spite
of short time In England and contin-
ent. With largest American crop ev.
er produced the price advanced $40 a
bale while being marketed and the
visible supply Is far less than two
years ago. With a certainty that 49,
100000 will really be needed by the
country and that probably less than
i1.50o.00o win be grown an eventual
advance Is simply unavoidable. I'm
der normal conditions the market
should have certainly advanced to
thirteen cents yesterday, but was kept
dewae by thSAerzasuaous-s Hing saf. s.tha.
bear clique. These sellers base their
action on the supposed helplessness of
the South. thinking the South will be
forced to sell Its cotton at any price
the spinners are willing to take IL at.
We consider that the competition be-
tween spinners who will certainly re-
auire 100000 bales monthly, will
take care OF this so-called distressed
cotton. if the bankers of the South
! VIII help the farmer TO market his
cotton slowly. We firmly believe it
will be worth fifteen cents in the next
sixty days The weakness In our opin-
ion Of the bears argument. is that.
although the producer may be foolish
enough to be willing to sell his cotton
far below its actual value, we hard
ly think that the spinner will he fool
ish enough, when he fully realizes
the facts Of the case, not to start
buying freely at those prices and thus
avoid the scramble for spot cotton
that will surely take place some time
during the season."
| The Southern farmer has sold at
least 100000. 1t was very hard to
convince the farmer that twelve cents
was not an extreme price for his
product. but through the efforts of
fow Southern men. they finally re-
allied the fact that they were sacri-
fcing their cotton. and I believe that
at least $50.0O0.OOO more has been
obtained for the cotton marketed to
date than would have been II It had
not been for the efforts Of this small
| coterie of Southern men.
My prediction on September 3 Of
hfteen cents In the next sixty days
has now come true, but at that time
L thought the crop would be from H.
100000 bales to 11.5OO.OO0 bales. I
now feel most confident that the max
imum for this crop is 1O,75O,OOO bales,
the probability is that 1t will be under
l0.5OO.000 bales. Under the present
conditions I now feel that fifteen cents
Is as much too cheap for cotton as
twelve and half cents seemed to me
| ON September 3.
1 give below some figures that may
be interesting regarding the con-
sumption OF American cotton:
Consumption. Total Crop
1sOs-0s. . E. ..12.167.OOO 13,s25,457
l9O7-os. ..12.112.O00 11,571.366
19os-07.. =. .12.611.OOO 13.51O,Ss2
lso5-OS.. :. ..12.166,000 11,345.9S8
1s0&-O5.. :. ..11.s3s.00O 13,5S5,S85
10000. .. ..10,083,000 1O,O11,374
lnNrAa In canaii axafi