New-York tribune., 1909-03-21
The Financial World.

to pass Even in wall Street there grows a
! common sense appreciation that the govern
ment's business undertaking in this regard is a
mere business undertaking In 50 far as sched-
uled changes are announced they fall short Of
what the pessnists ha We been so assiduorlsIv rro
claiming Thus an extended speculative short
interest In the stock market has failed 20 reap
profits which were expected to be the result
Of acute trade apprehension The most
radical Of tariff changes is less severe than had
been counted on by spectators for the decline
while. incidentally there is OF course. a7oracis
tion Of the fact that changes which from this
7 time forward may he introduced into the tariff
bill are far Hkelier to be in the way of mOdih-
Z cation than otherwise As important stock
market feature what goes on at Washington
may be regarded. indeed. as practically negli-
gible.
It IS not improbable however. that duIness
will continue for some time to come. pending
the making of the tariff legislation actually def
nIte-for there exists in important quarters the
general feeling that it would not be detrimental
to have featureless market for the time. We
meanwhile basic conditions improve sub
stantiaIly Eastern railway traffic Iags. sorfe
Industrial developments which seemed sure and
encouraging are temporarily delayed: but in
what are to be reckOned as controlling condi-
tions there is betterment.
We are increasing our gold exports. but this
feature of the situation be considered with
eQuanimity-for what gold send abroad is
from surplus stupendOus- and represents not
the scantiest shrinkage In our financial
strength. We simply making loans 10 other
parts of the world less fortunate in every way
than America is. Money here has become A
drug; each day sees some new concessions Of
fered by wOuld-b be lenders. Funds in vast vol
ume can be borrowed for years term at a
rate between and per cent. and money On
call is available at half that rate
In this condition is the natural germ Of as
sured security market enIivenment With
afsaTra hi fnl hat
securities return in dividends. IL is inCOncevabe
that security market values will fail to seek a
level of Teadjustment-and this COntemplates
material quotation advances, for not merely are
stocks selling on basis below the parity which
must prevail between market value and dividend
yield. but even cuTsoTy survey Of the market
discOses the fact that there is no pressure any
where 10 sell: and this must lead inevitably TO
sertive activity shall start.
Until some considerable activity develops in
the security market it is not likely that much
change can take place in quotations so relative
" small the speculative interests Just now
engaged efforts at manipulation With the
beginning Of next month many important finau-
ciers will return from vacations that have been
extended. And some prelude 10 their home
coming may be indicated by certain transac-
tions which day by day mount to substantial
magnitude without effect upon prices Such
manifestations seem to point to CarsfulIv
planned campaign for the absorption of various
standard stoCks-large orders 20 take stocks
appearing every time there is any material rs-
action This has been going On for some time
in Northern Pacific and Great Northern. in
Southern Pacific and in Reading In the last
named stock there persists short interest prob
ably larger than in any other part Of the market
United States Steel alone excepted And while
the short interest Is hardly an lnsplrltlng oaslS
for bull movement, it does perform functions
in such q campaign as the present one which
facilitate the accumulation Of long stocks
loogE and 7=r-lvra tE1~s il
similar indication OF buying by interests seeking
TO accumulate stock without lifting prices-bUt
in these two properties it is to be suspected
that operations are for the account of European
bankers rather than for interests here In New
York Central there Is not similar sign -
intricate are some Of the corporation TeadJTSJ-
meuts proposed in that property that IL IS prob
able that il will be follower rather than a
leader. II a general market revival should soon
develop some OF the Vanderbilt junior proper
ties may do special stunts. though-Big Four
and Nickel Plate. for example.
So long as the market does not show whole
sale refrigeration. opportunities for prodt viii
probably be confined to specialties-soma oS
which. even in recent depressing duuess. have
given good accounts Of themselves Some such
stocks selling at very low figures may be sx-
pected TO get back 10 market values which pre-
vailed before the panic's Ieveiling processes de-
prived them of status. Hooking Coal and Iron
serves as apt illustration. u has not only Ts-
Gently had substantial rise. but the advance
has been held Down under Is last spring tr
approach 20 now-and- whatsoever cynics may
suggest. It's managers are showing confidence
that the price can go still higheT-seelnS dlv'-
dends in pUospect The group is large OF stocks
which have kindred situation. American Beet
Sugar is In the list So are Bethlehem Steel.
American Ice Brunswick, United states Rubber.
American Car Foundry and others whose pres
ent quotation IS small beside former records
Probably none OF the industrial spectaltes will
do better than American Matt upon any re
sumption of aCtivity-Malt preferred by Official
action this week having been regularly put up01
q per cent. dividend disbursement basis That
stock entitled TO per cent. cumulative divi-
dends. has largely passed out Of Wall Street
important brewing interests becoming sIbstan-
tial holders. To this date something like Is Per
cent back dividends have acCrued-and thu
present year is TO their payment started
In addition to large available surplus on hand
the company has been earning ar the rate Of 10
per cent. and coinCident with the re-astaSlish-
ment Of dividends large deposits are made IN a
in factD for the retirement Of the companys
bonds. already materially reduced The COrpo-
rations current balance sheet VIII snow actuaI
property owned far beyond the aggregate Of ths
capital stocks market value ~ its present
price Malt preferred Yields the investor ap-
proximately 10 per cent.
strenuous efforts ara made to create an in.
preston that the United States Steel Corpora
tion is to lead campaign for widespread wage
reduction There IS definite basis for such
Nor Is there more than remote
possibility Of any conflict between the Corpora
tlon and its employees-they are on the friendh-
est terms. for which the profit sharing plan r
operation for some years is largely responsible
they are on good terms. which both sides I'M
desire maintained Incidentally. II -
q little difficult to ind any traces or Jnat &
gantic trade war which has been so exploited aS
sure to follow the recent cuts in minor steet
products. Steel rails cannot be bought a. any.
taf IL