The Montgomery advertiser., 1909-02-28
WHO WILL BEGIN THE FRAcAsa
Bulgaria Has no Good Reason at
 Present. /
With The Melting of The snows New Troubles Seem To Be Arising Turkey Strongly Inclined
 Toward Peace.
aY LE0 W. HAMBURGER.

that there must be some blood-letting in the Balkans before the air clears Just who will begin the fracas Is not certain. but the probability Is that II will be either Servia or Turkey. Bull garia might, ordinarily, be expected to open the ball, but there does not ap- pear to be any good reason at present why she should do so. She has gained all she was after without fighting up to date. and If anyone begins fighting in that direction 1t will probably be Turkey, who has a just claim against Bulgaria which has not been cashed in. Bulgaria, of course. has offered to pay the Turk a small sum for the railroads aS:d other things she has pur- Joined. but the sum is ridiculously in- sufficient. and Turkey may fight to restore her sovereignty.
 As for Servia, no one has agreed to give her anything-not even the strip of territory she craved. and as her Slav brethren have not been placated they may stir things up so that Seryia will fight. Any signs of support from Russia would cause her to begin opera tions without delay. and already there has been one such sign, viz, Russa's 8 characterization of Austria as the fire brand of Europe. The melting of the snows has always. since there was a Balkan question. been taken to be the sign and cause of the springing up of new troubles. This year. even before the great annual change in nature. there is such omen of coming mis- chief as for long has not been known. It is no longer the gathering of the clans. the setting out of guerilla ex- petitions; 1t is the marching of armies, the threat of full-blooded war.
 Turkey. though declaring still the intention towards peace, cannot stand by and allow an enemy, late a subject. to invade his territory. In the current phrase. any day, any hour may bring 'an incident on the frontier" that will let war loose Armies in face of each other are highly explosive; they may go off. as it were, of themselves, how ever diplomacy at distance may cry peace and plan peace and higgle over the price of peace. The Bulgarian army at the frontier is under orders neither to provoke the Turk nor to allow any Turkish provocation to go unpunisheJ. That. ordinarily would be very 7ominous order. for frontier provocations happen very easily and by accident as often as by forethought.
 It is easy enough to say that this whole Balkan trouble can be settled by the payment of money, but who Is to pay? So far Bulgaria and Austria have both refused to pay anything to the power they have despoiled. and that power may shortly seek compen- sation as well as revenge. The experi- ment being made in Constantinople appeals to ali the world as an attempt at once heroic, wholesome, and hope- full It would be a setback to the general cause of civilization and good government in the world If Turkey in the first hours of its fine labor of re- form were to suffer war or to make If. All the information that comes from Constantinopie goes to show that the new government thoroughly real izes that all of its interest lies in peace. Even though it were tempted by all sorts of promises of outside sup- port, 1t would scarcely by any avoid able action risk-a war which must cost much and might ruin all. There Is a tendency in France to think that Turkey is asking too much from Bull garia. The "Temps," for example. says that Turkey must be advised to yield even further than the negotia- lions have already brought 1t to yield, This may be so, though 1t Is obvious, that, since all the right Is on Its side from the beginning, its claims might in justice, if not in prudence, be based on the resources of the countries and provinces that have seeded from 1t or robbed 1t. These things how ever. can seldom be settled by abstract considerations: 'the smaller powers have greater powers behind their backs to bite them" They must often do not what justice. but what some- body else allows. Turkey can still buy peace and keep honor. The Turk ish non possumus may mean only i've won't as long as can help it."
 The rejection of Turkey of the Rus sian proposal for the settlement of Balkan question Is ominous especially as it was approvedly England, France and Italy. This proposal, in brief was that Russia would undertake to facili- tate the conclusion of a Bulgarian loan to say. $20,000,000 on easy terms. while as regards the balance of the sum claimed by Turkey, Russia was pre- pared to renounce the annual install ment of the RussoTurklsh war in demnity for a fixed period of years
 There have been occasions when the self-restraint of the Turkish leaders, under strong provocation and the pres sure of excited and angry feelings among their followers. has aroused the unfeigned admiration of the world II seems, hardly credible that the men who have successfully resisted tempta- tion when 1t was strong should fling away the moral and material rewards of their self-possession when the temptation fastly contemplate the whole position. The Turks can be under no illusion as to the probable consequences of repudiating the offer of Russia. They must either revert to direct negotiations with Bulgaria. or make ready for war with that state. The language of the recent Bulgarian note can hardly be misunderstood on this hand. That document puts the alternatives to Turkey with clear ness that was almost menacing, and if was received with enthusiasm by the people of the Princfpality Should the negotiations be resumed now after the failure of the Russian project the Turks are not likely to find the Bull garins more complaint than they have shown themselves hitherto. The best which Turkey could possibly hope to obtain is the arrangement which she has repudiated, and it my be doubtful whether she would obtain even that The issue of war would be- to say the least very uncertain. Were 1t victories for Turkey the material gains to her would be doubtful; were it un- successful. the consequences would as- suredly be disastrous. In any event the results to her finances must be ruinous. and upon her finances, as her own statesmen are well aware. the ultimate fate of her constitutional sys- tenn very largely hangs. From these perils, external ana internal. the Rus sian scheme would relieve her It would enable her to come al once to the pacific settlement with Bulgaria which she desires. 1t would provide her with the means of immediately raising g not inconsiderable sum of cash of