Arizona republican., 1909-03-16
THE WEATHER CHIEF
 OFFERS EXPLANATION
Willis L. Moore Tells the Public How the Weather Bureau Missed Its Guess on March Fourth.

Willis l.. Moore, chief of the United States weather bureau, in a circular letter sent to all the weather stations and to the newspapers. gives the fol- lowing explanation of the disappoint ing weather conditions that prevailed in Washington on inauguration day. and which were the opposite of what the bureau had predicted:
 Tt is not usual to answer criticisms of the forecasts of the weather bureau. but the hundreds of press clippings that have been received since March containing adverse criticisms of the bureau seem to call for this statement from me
 Forecasts of the weather bureau are before the public every day in the year. In the past about one predic ton out of each ten failed to be veri- fled. and it may be expected that the same ratio of failure will be main tained until meteorology can be made, what it is not now, an exact science.
 Tn the case of the storm that visited Washington on the 4th of March last. the fact is that the disturbance began here on the morning of the 3rd, and was accurately forecast the day before. The bureau anticipated that the storm would pass over the Middle Atlantic states during the night of the 3rd, and that northwest winds and falling tenn peratures would leave q clear day for the ith. The center passed precisely as forecast. the wind shifted and the temperature fell, but instead of the northwest wind clearing the sky, as it does in nearly ali cases. precipitation in the form of snow occurred and con tinued for twelve hours after the storm center had passed eastward. No fore caster could foresee this. Were We to forecast a fall of snow following the passage of storm centers that move from the northwest, we would have hundreds of failures charged against US. instead of an occasional one. for it is rare that snow falls in the Middle Atlantic states except with the ap- proach of a storm from the southwest. which causes northeast winds. and it is extremely rare that any storm in this region that begins with rain ends with snow of any considerable amount. On the contrary. many storms that be- gin as snow end as rain.
 The forecast in question was made by one of the most experienced fore casters of the bureau and was con cured in by all or the forecasters who were conversant with the conditions. and the same forecast would be made today if similar conditions existed.
 The forecasters of the United States weather bureau are the equals. if not the superiors. of any others Tn the world. and their predictions of frosts. cold waves. floods. and marine storms. although subject to error in the pro- portion of about one to ten, are of such value to the industries of the nation that if one Of the newspapers that now so freely criticise fbecause two unverified forecasts for the Dis trict of Columbia have fallen on in- auguratiOn day were to omit from its pages the daily predictions of the weather its readers would compel it to restore them, and if the department of congress were to close a station of the bureau in any part of the United States the property interests would demand it's restoration. This would not be the case if the hysterical abuse that Is now being indulged in was justified. WILLIS l.. MOORE.
 Chief T.. :. Weather Bureau. Washington. D. C., March 10, 19O9'