The watchman and southron. [volume] (Sumter, S.C.) 1881-1930, 1909-08-04
COTTON ADVANCED.
PRICES CLIMBED IN OVERSOID
MARKET.
crop Advtces Seem Bullish-Many
Believe That Government Report
Will Act as Incentive to Upward
Movement.

new YORK, July 3O.-Mainly OWinp
TO unfavorable crop reports and a
sold out and oversold condition of the
market cotton prices, after some ir-
regularity. advanced sharply. The
drift Of the crop advices is such that
Very many look for bullish govern
ment report next Monday. The July
condition was 74.6 per cent and the
August condition sometimes falls con-
siderably below that of July. The
question is whether the recent rains
In Texas and some improvement east
Of the Mississippi river may not have
caused some increased condition dur
Ing July. Some traders think they
have. Many. however, incline to the
belief that there has been little or no
Improvement and that If this turns
out to- be so, much higher prices are
Inevitable. Special newspaper re-
ports Of late have been of a kind to
stimulate bull speculation. They have
come from the Carolinas, Georgia and
Alabama as well as from Mississip ppi
and Louisiana and talk of a crop of
only 11,500.00o to 100000 bales
has grown louder, based on the axiom
that an August condition below so
per cent has invariably meant small
crop.
1t Is true that the acreage is now
some 100000 acres as contrasted
with an area in former years of 25,-
0000,000 to 3O,00O,O00, but it is
worthy of remark that even in 1907
| with an area officially given as 32,-
100000 acres and an August condi-
ton of 75-about what is now look
ed for-the crop was only 11,375,000
| bales. Crops of 13,500,00O bales and
over in the last five years have only
been raised in years when the Au-
| gust condition was 82.9 to 916. The
previous high record crops of about
11.250,000 bales in 1897 and 1898.
| on areas of 24,275, 900 to 24,967,OO0
| acres were produced on August con-
| ditions of from S6.s to 91.2 per cent.
But low August conditions have
never yielded good crops. Meantime
| speculation is on the qui vive for that
report from Washington on August
2. Even if bullish, it may be follow
ed by reaction in prices, but the
consensus is that report pointing to
relatively small crop-that is, 12.-
100000 or below-will be the signal
gun for another outburst of bullish
| speculation.
K Meantime trade is slowly improv-
Ing. Exports of cotton goods are
more than double those for the sane
Time last year, spinners' takings run
we'll ahead of those of last year week
by week, an the visible supply Is de-
creasing much more rapidly than a
year ago. On the other hand. exist
Ing supplies are still large, spinners
ON many cases hold aloof, Europe
insists that its trade is poor and the
price of raw cotton is at least rela-
lively If not absolutely high.
Late in the week price movements
were confined to rather narrow limits,
on account Of nervousness regarding
the government report Western
houses sold, and commission houses
sold for profits, whereas Wall street
was buying. For a time firmness was
created by the National Ginners' re-
port, making the crop condition 71.7
per cent, which was followed by an
estimate from a local statistician of
II per cent. A prominent commits
sion house placed the condition at
1873 per cent. On the other hand.
while many had expected another To-
cal statistician to issue a bullish est-
mate, the figures were found to be
IS when the report finally came out.
Liverpool reported a large spot bus
mess at material advance.