The Birmingham age-herald., 1909-04-04
GOOD GUESSING
 AT POKER HAND Third Factor In Good Players
 Make-Up WHEN TO LAY DOWN TOURS How A Opened With Four Aces and Stood Pat on the Draw, While E Took One Card and Filled
 Straight Flush.
WHEN TO LAY DOWN TOURS
From the Washington Post.

l rlOiu tIe WdSnlnStOn Post.
 T notice," said the man with past, that somebody has been asking The Post whether draw poker is a game of science or luck. The answer he got was the proper and obvious one-that 1t was a mixture of the two.
 For myself, however, and" he con- tinued with a reminiscent smile, T have played some poker in different places and with different sorts of men, I should be 1 inclined to think that there was third element of success involved. It may be a little difficult to give a name in a sn- gle word, but perhaps guesswofk would come as near as anything I mean the faculty or knack of divining the opera tions of the other fellows mind
 There are many situations in poker in which the very extreme possible exercise Of skill or science will dictate a certain line of play or in which the success of that play will seemingly depend altogether on the players luck, and yet shrewd | guess will dictate the exact opposite. and | the really shrewd guesser will win out. Probably the best way to explain what mean is to give an illustration from the | game itselfs as I have actually seen 1t played; for 1t is a fact that I saw once a situation in which particularly clever guess settled the ownership of a pot or over $140O.
 T reckon majority of the poker play | CTS in this country at least know the 1 famous story of the man who laid down four aces without calling his opponent. because he knew he was beaten. but not every poker player who knows the story understands fully the line of reasoning on which MT. Goodplayer laid down his hand.
 A Figured Right.
 You remember, probably, how the cir cumstances were told in the story-how A opened the jack pot on four aces pat in five-handed game; how B, c, and D passed and D came fin without raising. Then A, being first in the draw, stood pat and took one card, whereupon A reasoned that E must be drawing to a straight flush.
 He felt certain that if had two pairs or better he would have raised before the draw, seeing that there was nobody to 1righten out by raising, but as he did not raise he must be drawing to four straight, a four flush, or four straight flush.
 Knowing as he did that E was skill ful player, A knew that he would not stay against a single antagonist with only a four straight or a four flush, but that he would be justified in staying on a four straight flush, since the chance of irn- proving was about one in three, and he was getting 2 to 1 in the betting, as A had opened for the size of the pot
 So far th% story is absolutely correct from scientific standpoint, and have seen 1t followed in actual play, not with four aces. it is true. but once with four queens and once with four hines.
 Then, the story goes on, A threw in a White chip and E pushed his whole pile forward, whereupon A folded, the theory being that he knew E to be such a good player that he would not attempt a bluff against pat hand, and that since it was not bluff, he must have filled straight flush.
 Triumph for Science.
 This is the story. that has been told. with great variety of detail, about many famous poker players, and is probably true, in somewhat modified form, of some of them. It commands the interest of every poker player on earth the first time he hears it, and when his attention Is called to the successive steps of the reasoning which induces the holder of fours to lay down, he is filled with admi- ration for what looks like an exception ally brilliant play. It looks like a signal triumph of science over luck.
 Yet l once saw a game in which a situation almost precisely like that in the story was met in totally different way, and l was not only compelled to &C., knowledge the brlliancy of the play but I was led to<the conclusion that shrewd guessing Is sometimes as potent a factor in the game as either science or luck
 "The doctor, the lawyer, the editor, the lieutenant, and myself used to play reg ularly every week for two or three years and we came to know one another's play thoroughly well and to have a profound respect for one another's ability.
 "I need hardly say that we were all familiar with the four-ace story We had discussed it more than once and had agreed, as poker players generally do agree, that it was probably the best ex- ample of skill that could be cited in all the annals of poker.
 But one night 1t happened that the editor opened a jackpot under the guns for the size of it. The lieutenant, the lawyer and I all dropped, and the doctor who had dealt, came in after little hes itation. As we thought of it afterward this very hesitation was an indication to the editor.
 Editor Stands Pat.
 Then the editor stood pat, and the doc tor took one card, so of course we all recognized the fact that he was drawing to a straight f1ush-and mind you, there was no possibility of suspecting any crooked play in that party None of us. of course, had any means by which to judge what the editors pat hand was, but we all thought of the famous story. though not suspecting that he really held fours.
 'TIe threw in white chip carelessly and the doctor, after looking over his hand, perhaps shade too carefully raised him $55. We were playing pretty stiff game, as we usually did, and there was over $500 in the pot already.
 Then the editor studied hard. He looked at the doctor a long time. but he might as well have studied the sky for all the sign he could see there. The doctor was a remarkably steady player, with iron nerves, and we all knew that he sel- dom bluffed.
 Finally the editor said: According to the tradition. I ought to lay down my four kings, for l know, of course. what you drew to, and if you filled I'm beaten. Then, I suppose, I'm not justified in thinking you'd try to bluff pat hand if you didn't fill, but guess you are bluff ing, in spite of that. I call Either you filled or you didn't, and I guess you didn't
 with that he threw in his s55 and showed his hand which was. in fact, four kings. Of course, under the rules. the Ixt<. <...Irx .Ia<x