Evening star., 1909-05-23
GOOD TIMES AHEAD
Outlook FavorS Conservative
Speculator With Long Stocks.
HARRIMAN'S FOREIGN TRIP
Will Try to Float Bond Issues of
His Railroads.
PUBLIC IGNORES WALL STREET
Good Dividend-Paying Securities Be-
ing Bought and Sailed Down.
Wheat Prospects Good
PUBLIC IGNORES WALL STREET
BY w. G.. NICHOLAS.
espondcnce Of The Star.

By w. G. NICHOLAS.
Special Correspondence of The Star.
NEW YORK. May 10 1909
Security market conditions continue to
reveal really amazing strength. For ex-
ample. Wednesday the announcement Of
the unexpected death of H. II. Rogers
caused nothing more, marketwise. than
a temporary decline of about a point in
Copper. which was quickly
recovered. All old-timers in Wall street
will certify to the statement that in
years gone by such catastrophe would
have meant a concerted slump. But
times are changed. The security market
of today Is under the absolute control
and guidance of the biggest financial in
terests in the country. and these in
terests stand ready at any and all times
to safeguard values. No more illustra-
tive episode could have been furnished
than this sudden removal of Mr.. Rogers.
Mr.. Harriman's Coming Trip.
Conspicuous in market movement is the
sustained strength Of the Hartman Pa
cifics. Mr.. Hartman is scheduled to
leave for Europe June 1. Despite con-
trary reports. Mr.. Hartman is not go
ing abroad for his health. His main OBJ
jective purpose is to float profitably GER
tain bond issues running into hundreds
of millions of dollars of his pet railroads
Mr.. Hartman, on the highest authority,
is proclaimed to be a practical man."
He certainly is. He is going across the
pond to borrow money. and to borrow 1t
upon first-class collateral. What is the
natural program that he will cause to be
followed? A borrower desires to put be-
fore a lender the best possible front.
Hence it would seem to be certain that.
market circumstances permitting. the
highest attainable quotations for the Har-
riman issues will come out before, during
or after Mr.. Harriman's Argonautic voy-
age. 1t would seem to be one of the
simplest possible propositions that Har-
riman stocks are booked for a swift ad-
vance. OF course, all market movement
is at all times at the mercy of unex-
pected disaster, but SPECTATORS ignore
remote contingencies OF this character.
Incidental to such discussion there is
significance in the recent trips through
southern territory. extending beyond the
Mexican border. Of Mr.. Hartman and his
associates and Edwin Hawley and his
partners. Speculative attention turns
southwark with eager eyes. The wonder
unaided by the political attitude of Presi-
dent Taft, attracts serious consideration
from American capitalists. Undoubtedly
another good cotton crop to be sold at
profitable prices will mean another great
step forward for the south. 1t is, there
fore. not surprising to find such stocks
as Chesapeake and Ohio, Southern Rail-
way and Rock Island attracting specu-
lative consideration. From the agricul-
tural and industrial point of view the
south is in the saddle. and seems certain
to stay there indefinitely.
Speculative Situation Confused.
The speculative situation is still con-
fused. What Wall street terms 1.-The pub
iic' is not taking any great part in cur
rent transactions. Speculation is largely
In the hands of professional traders, and
for the moment traders are almost uni
versally bearish. certain group of big
operators who took the bull side some
months ago saw fit to take their profits
within the last week. and it is estimated
that from 100000 to 10000 shares of
stock were sold at handsome profits.
And these sellers. not content with these
profits, put out, In addition. quite a con-
siderable line Of short contracts The
impressive fact is that at no time did
such profit realization depress the market
more than one to three points, and more
impressive still is the fact that such de-
clines are now all practically recovered.
The group Of operators who took this ac-
tion probably could not replace their hold
ings in the current market without ad-
vancing quotations from five to ten
points. The interesting question is: Who
bought the stocks sold? Commission
houses to some extent answer this query.
For the last two or three weeks there
certificates of stock than at any time
since the panic Of 1907, when Odd-lot buy
Ing appeared In such amazing fashion.
The American public at large is not
down good dividend-paying stocks, which
is evidence of the American public's
horse sense. Disregarding Wall street
fantasies, deaf to bear rhetoric, the plain
everyday American citizen is buying what
he considers good investments. This is
the mainstay of the market.
OF course. just SO long as Wall street
professionals remain opposed to any up
ward movement. just so long must swift
and more or less important fluctuations
investor, they are nothing but the sur
face ripples above the flowing tide.
Good Outlook for Wheat.
Last week in this column reference was
made to the crop situation. That situa-
tion distinctly improves. Where winter
wheat has been killed natural conditions
permit the sowing Of other crops profit
able to the farmer. and the area of spring
wheat will this year probably surpass
all previous records. OF course, all crops
are SIul more OF less at the mercy OI
weather conditions, but there is no reason
to anticipate any other final result than
large accretion to agricultural wealth.
And in the long run agricultural wealth
is the sure foundation of national pros
perity. Given national prosperity, Secur-
ity' market appreciation must ensue. This
crop situation must be taken into consid-
Grafton In very earnest fashion In any
Of stock market probabili-
ties 1t Is much more of a governing
factor than what this or that Wall street
operator may chance to think of market
possibilities.
Indeed. take the very group of specu-
lators written Of above-they are very de-
sirous now Of reinstating their market
positions-they cannot do it except by
paying high prices.
The monetary condition is favorable to
bull speculation. Fairly heavy gold ex-
ports do not in any way impair the strong
position of our associated banks and
trust companies. Whatever gold goes
abroad goes at q profit to American ship
pers. The demand is unnatural, and the
foreigner must pay a premium to get
possession of our supplies of the yellow
metal Anyhow, this gold movement is
good deal Of fetich. The actual move
ment Of coin no longer represents set
Elements Of Indebtedness, but rather trans
fers of credits which movement could
easily be abolished under some sane in
street has been educated to cheer gold
imports and shudder at gold exports-it is
time that such nonsense should cease.
Something Doing in Rock Island.
naniel q Reid il back in New York