The Montgomery advertiser., 1909-03-05

An excellent resume of the influence of politics upon the present price of cotton has been sent out by a New 1 York broker:
 | One of our friends, intimately ac- ouainted with Washington and national 1 politics. sums up the immediate bus1- | ness outlook thus:
 Taft is a statesman, a lawyer and an arbitrator, but not a business man. l His only thought is that his party is pledged to tariff revision and he in- | tends, as far as lies within his power. l to carry out the pledges of his plat tunity to the people interested in the views
 These views. in many cases. are rad certain duties absolutely abolished, while manufacturers, if they had their way, would either maintain the pres so as to absolutely exclude foreign competition. The labor element, in many industries. is supporting the manufacturers in their efforts to pre- vent any, or at best, only nominal re- auctions in duties
 All these interests are represented | on the floor of Congress, and every item of the tariff schedule will be wig 1 orously debated. It Is considered i'm possible for the tariff bill to go through the House under six weeks; and when
 
 let of the Senate. with Aldrich, the leader of that body. unalterably op- posed to any reduction. which can be avoided.
 Of course, the full power of the ad. ministration will be exerted to pass a bill In line with the campaign pledges. but 1t is safe to say that the extra session will drag along for several months. and that a final verdict will not be reached before June.
 In the meantime the business of the | x.,tI1 consumers will buy only from hand to mouth Such a condition of affairs does not augur well for a bull cam paigD in any commodity, unless some new influence arises sufficiently strong to overcome the present handicap. The early part of the planting season in cotton may be sufficiently wet to fur nish this new influence; but, as the May l, there Is danger that the present large long interest in late months, and especially in October, will become tired and conclude to unload.
 In a carefully prepared summary of the February cotton trade. the follow ing conclusions and deductions were made by a New York house:
 At the close of the month prices are a shade up from the lowest owing to the prompt stopping of March tenders, remains quite unsettled and. for the time being conservative people are in clined to go slowly in adopting any fixed position on the market. beyond higher prices are in prospect q a re- suit of next seasons conditions Con- tidence i9 this direction is based upon practically the same considerations which we have previously outlined. First, that despite temporary setbacks and recessions. the tendency of trade worlds spindleage capacity which has been so Increased of late years that running on full time, 1t promises a re- quirement of at least 13.500.000 bales of American cotton; second, that the proba bilities are against rather than in favor of such a crop next season for three reasons: That two large crops are rarely picked in succession; that in some sections of the belt the winter precipitation has been abnormally 1 light and that the advance of the boil WeeYlI has led to a restriction of cred Its in newly infested portions of the country that may result in reduced area
 "Regarding the area: It would seem reasonable to suppose that the same sentiment which has been the support of this crop since the beginning of the season. that is, confidence in higher prices next year should have made an impression upon the grower as well as the merchant and consumer so that a voluntary reduction in area seems fam cltul Opinions valy widely in wei informed circles regarding the possi- ble effect of boil Weevil. A recent statement by the Department of Agri- culture is rather reassuring on this point, and on the whole. hulIish senti- ment is based less upon this phase of the situation than upon the reported insufficient rainfall Official data now available for the first time, showing precipitation in Texas for the month of December makes 1t apparent that except in western sections of the State. rains for that month were in excess of last year On the whole. therefore there iS nothing in present condition q justify!ng the assumption that the next crop will be smaller than that now marketing beyond the improbability of two large crops of desirab ble grade in