The Washington herald., 1909-01-04
Washington Weather.

Editor The Washington Herald:
I hope TO demonstrate that fair 10 good
/ long-range weather forecasts for vicinity
OF Washington are possible. but I have
no disposition 10 compete with the
Weather Bureau. Ny forecasts are for
weeks and months in advance, and 1
make no effort TO forecast the little
weather changes that come within the
sphere Of Weather Bureau work. In in
dorse the methods OF Weather Bureau
short-rauge forecasts. but they should
be- improved. and I hope 10 see my in
vestigatlons result in Weather Bureau
Improvements.
I believe that The daily records q tenn
peratures. rainfall, snow, hail. cold
waves. thaws freezes. hurricanes. tor
nadoes. thunderstorms. warm waves. and
frosts. each for its kind. must be made
the basis Of scientific investigation in
order that We may be able 10 know the
future OF the weather II there are
cycles IN the weather. they viii show I'D
in the records.
As see 81, there are many cycles over
tapping each other. and therefore scien-
lists have made poor progress IN finding
them. 7 believe that I have found all
those cycles. but the work is 50 immense
and the necessary experiments so eN-
tensive that I have not Yet been able 10
determine in all cases where one cycle
begins and another ends. In fact, they
overlap each other several DAYS.
I am now trying 10 arrange 70 give my
discoveries 90 the public IN order that
lem. I know that 7 have found all the
causes. but the work is yet IN its In
fancy. Magneticians, astronomers, and
meteorologists. particularly men who COM
bine these three sciences within therl-
selves. viii find an abundance Of work
when my discoveries are made public.
In support Of the above are the facts
that for twenty years my forecasts have
held public interest in thirty States and
the SIX western provinces OF Canada /
have welded forecastinS for Washington
for t,so reasons. II is exceedingly diff
cult 10 forecast for this vicinity. and.
as Weather Bureau officials are sensi-
tive about my efforts. and as 7 would
prefer 10 be on good terms with them.
I have. with a few exceptions. kept OUt
Of this field
Ny chsrted forecasts for thirty-fve
DAYS. including all OF December. 1875.
published IN The Washington Herald on
November - were about 50 per cent good
for rising falling. and stationary temper
atures and above about. and below nor
NAL temperatures. and 81 Per cent bad,
OF a little more than two 10 one in favor
Of the forecasts when tested by Prof
Clayt0n's technical and very strict rules.
But when tested BY the scientific farmer.
watching his growing crops, caring for
his live stock and the comfort OF his
family. the chart was good enough on
Jweury-eight days and bad on seven
days. OF 80 per cent good and % per cent
bad
The notable successes Of the chart were
the three cold waves Indicated by II for
December 3 - and January I. including
the big snow Of December - and 3 One /
cold wave forecast was not good. 18th +
10 l9th, but temperatures went down - 7.
degrees TO .. making II a cool wave I
These Charted forecasts had reference to 2
g a m temperatures. From noon Of 4
the 18th 70 q. m. Of the 18th the TEN /
DeratUres fell q degrees 10 q. and that .
would be cold wave
The chart indicated that the thirty
five days would average colder than
usual, and they did, the average being /
several degrees below normal
Washington people took much interest
in that charted forecast, and. as they
are inclined 10 be charitable toward It's
weak points. 7 hope 10 give them another
test OF forecastng by the weather records
and the cycles I find in them.
VT FOSTER