New-York tribune., 1909-04-20
MR. 4LDRICH'S ESTIMATES.

In his speech in the Senate yesterday on the
nendinr tariff bill Mr.. Aldrich dealt chlehy
with the problem of raising revenue lie allleu
n show that the tariff bill reported by the
Finance Committee would produce, after July
I 1910 enough revenue TO meet the needs VI
the government. He declared that no lurthet
additional taxes-whether an inheritance tax, d
tax on incomes taxes on commercnl paper y,
larger internal taxes on beer or liquors-would
be required to prevent deficits. Mr.. AldrichS
oninion is Of course entitled to respect Yet
there are many who will hold that he has been
imaginative and too sangune.
In his calculations the Senator assumes thaC
revenue will increase at Il much greater raIio
than expenditure thus reversing our experience
under the Dingley tariff law. To clear the wa!
for his demonstration he insists that all Ihe
money spent out of current revenues lor lie
Panama Canal shall be returned to the Treas
ury and that canal expenditures for the future
shall be paid from the proceeds OF bona IS
sues That is undoubtedly good policy Inc
Tribune has always advocated fairer dlstri-
bution of the cost of work on the canal II II
unjust to throw on this generation the chiei
burden of an undertaking from which IL il"!
not profit To any great extent we agree en-
tirely with Senator Aldrich that the cost Oh
the canal should be met by the sale OF bohus.
Legislation will be required TO effect TINS
change in policy. and such legislation ought u
be embodied in the pending tariff Jill
Excluding from the expenditures for DUO "'
+he money spent on the canal, Mr.. Aldrlch eS1i-
mates that the deficit for 190S'09 will be S69.-
462 40 On Saturday. April II, the denclt 10
date was reported by the Treasury Department
10 he $50. .6:}S. .157. According TO the pre7eh'
method of bookkeeping. II may reach Slu"'
100000 by the end of the fiscal year foi
19G9-10 the ordinary expenditures OF the s",
ernment will be S70O.oG0.0CO. Mr. Aldrlch car
culates that the Senate bill without addltional
internal taxation. will raise S639.oooooo->.'o'
100000 more than the Dingley law is expected
~ produce in 190S-O9. That would leave 4
deficit of S45OO00O0 for next year For l9Io II
the revenue is 10 increase to S693,OOo.Ooo an"
the expenditure is to decrease to S6o3.VFo.pVo'
giving a surplus of S3O.000,ooO. Is thlS eSI-
mated increase of S90,OO0,O00 in revenue in two
wears justified? Mr.. Aldrich seems to nave
calculated the revenue productivity OF his Dill on
tba basis of the importations Of the boom
wear of 19O6-'07. He allows aiso-and properly
for the increase Of customs revenues due 10
growth of population and for larger collections
due to the enforcement Of Stricter regulations
against undervaluations. Perhaps half of the
total estimated increase of S9OOoooto can thus
he accounted for. Yet, whether the abnormal
trade activity of that year. based on excessive
speculation and high prices here VIII ne
reached again soon Is doubtful. MI -AIulICi
revenue estimates look imposing on paper. Ihey
can hardly be called conservative as he
called them yesterday
Giving them the benefit Of the doubt how
ever their efficacy in justifying the Finance
Committees bill depends upon the proposed
reduction in federal expenditure. Is the Senate
ready to reverse the precedents of generations
and to cooperate with the House of Represent
atives in reducing appropriations? We sin
cercely hope that it is. There Is. as Mr. Aldrlch
said good ground for believing that the govern
ment's annual expenditure can be cut S1oooO,-
600 without a great impairment of the efficiency
of the public service. The Senate. in fact. could
have insured such saving at almost any time in
recent years if 1t had been content to be as
economical as the House Of Representatives
was In the three fiscal years 190I-OS. l@oS-W
and 19O9-'1O the Senate added $f42.7O1O To
the totals of the appropriation bills as they
DasSed the HouSe-an average Of S4I.Jn.OO
year VIII the upper house now experience
change of heart and try TO cut appropriations
instead Of initiating them? We should Ike 10
think that it will.
Mr. Aldrich's estimates of revenue are based
on the expectation of quick return of business
activity and a sudden reversal of the economic
policy Of the Senate. If his anticipations are
realized the Senate bill. as It stands. may be
made to produce sufficient revenue. If they
fail of realization it will fail: and it will have
failed because 1t exaggerated the rosy prom
tiOusy diScounting them.