New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1909-08-09
FINANCIAL MARKETS
HIGH STOCK RECORDS.
Public 4ctiue in Ball Speculation
Uoneu Rates Firmer.

ing a period of remarkable business prosperity.
There is every reason to believe that IN the
months TO come industrial situation Will be
marked by a greater expansion in production
and consumption than that reported three years
ago; the outlook favors increasing railroad
earnings and better results for corporations I'm
general than ever before known and higher
dividends by many companies and the payment
OF dividends by concerns that never have made
distributions TO their shareholders. Current in
dications point to enormous grain crops that
will be sold at reasonable prices and a cotton
crop below the normal, which will be marketed
at figures that viii offset 10 great extent the
reduction in the yield, with the result of increas-
ing the purchasing power Of the agricultural
community 10 an extent that will exert most
important influence upon distributive trade.
The tariff bill has become law and merchants
and manufacturers can go ahead with plans held
up pending the settlement of the economic legis-
Rtion: the day of vicious restrictive legislation
against corporations apparently has passed and
our state and national representatives will now
be able 10 settle down to the enactment of laws
that will encoura &c greater activity among bust
ness men and provide protection TO our general
business interests The currency system has not
yet been reformed. but we have the promise
that a scientific repodellipg of our monetary
laws lines demanded by the growth and
progress Of the country will be undertaken
either at the next session Of Congress or at
special session following the adjournment OF
the regular meeting Of the national Legislature
The currency needs reforming, and the country
gradually is awakening to the dangers in
volved in maintaining the present inelastc sys-
tenn. which at one time creates imitation and at
another time brings about acute stringency
breeding transportation and panic Outside OF
the currency laws prevailing and the poor posi-
ton OF our export trade. and fortunately these
features that can be remedied there are no
really unfavorabe factors in the present position
Of affairs in the United States
Wall Street as whole does not believe that
the stock market has yet discounted in its rises
in prices the various encouraging developments
OF recent months and the further expansion that
is expected TO take place i'm the country's indus
tries. The idea that money rates will advance
10 a level that Will compel liquidation of specu-
iative accounts I'm heavy volume is not enter
tained I'm Oversanguine bull circles but among
conservative market followers il is believed that
il we are 10 run into period of unusual pros
perity which everybody is predicting, the mer-
camille demand for funds VIII be excessive and
that together with the recall of funds from
New York by interior institutions in connection
with the financing OF the harvests II viii enable
the lenders TO obtain a much better price for
accommodation. and. incidentally. lessen the at
tractiveness of stocks as speculative and invest
ment purchases. There is an enormous amount
Of stock being carried on borrowed money and
any substantial tightening in money market rates
will be accompanied by calling and shifting Of
loans that cannot fail 10 exert a most depress-
ing influence upon stock market quotations
After the crop demands have been financed and
money begins to return TO New York there
should be another period of bull activity but in
the time Of active shipments Of currency from
New York IL is not unlikely that securities will
seek lower level This theory is not popular
in the Street. The big spectators who have
stock TO sell at fancy prices desire nothing but
the encoura cement through public means of the
idea that money cannot be lost in buying stocks
just now. while the public. which is coming into
the market usual. proclaims that there is no
reason for caution and that stocks must GO
higher, Just because conditions are so promising
and because the big men are buying As a
rule when the public believes the big men are
buying the latter merely manipulating quota
lions 20 attract the outsiders and 10 make a
market for their bull accounts. There was ample
evidence Of this sort Of speculation I'm last weeks
market also the familiar spectacle of the selling
of the high priced issues under the cover Of a
bidding-up process in the second rate shares was
presented
Commission houses did larger business for
public account last week than in any preceding
week in recent months Speculative enthusiasm
was al high pitch. and even the distinctly
adverse government report on cotton failed n
weaken confidence in the ability of bull lead
ers TO carry prices to better figures. though the
outlook as reflected i'm the firrner tendency in
the money market suggested greater difficulty AZ
no remote time In securing loan accommodation
at reasonable terms. SO far cotton is con
cerned. there is reason for uneasiness over
the extent 70 which this years crop will figure
in money value as in spite OF an indicated yield
in the neighborhood Of IL 900 600 bales against
the record harvest Of 1906 Of 1885 900 bales
growers can figure n - cent level as a mini
mum. which would mean $50 bale, or $500, O0O-
600 for a crop Of 100000 bales. not including
cotton seed which may be figured at S90.O0O 900
total Of s750,O0O000, against s721,s46OO0. the
amount realized from the record crop of 1905.
Europe has got TO come 10 this country for its
cotton, though it NAV go elsewhere 10 some ex-
tent for its grain. and from all indications Il
VIII ne compelled to pay whatever NAV ask
for the product. Domestic manufacturers will
need at least 100000 bales Of raw cotton in the
forthcoming cotton crop year Grain prices have
declined TO the basis Of the new crop. and the
market is at a level that is encouraging
active engagements by exporters. a movement
that promises TO grow and to become something
Of a factor in the sterling exchange market al
time when this centre may find IL profitable
10 bring in gold from Europe The local banks
have gained from the interior I'm the last eigh-
teen months more than $4,000 900 net and II
is safe to count upon a withdrawal of heavy
amounts i'm the near future for grain crop pur-
poses, an indication of such a movement being
found In the gradual turning Of domestic ex-
change rates against this city.
Some Of the larger banks now refuse TO nut
out over-the-year money at less than per
cent, while foreign bankers who have large bal
ances on hand demand rate slightly higher
than that level their attitude being based on the
expectation of much harder loan quotations be-
fore many weeks as a consequence OF a drain
Of cash on Eastern reserve Institutions for the
account Of the West. A better price for money
doubtless viii encourage the issuance of loan
bills In volume through the medium Of the Ster-
ling exchange market and Just so long as con-
ditions here are sound and money brings a bet
ter price at New York than at London material
assistance may be expected from the foreign
money market. Treasury needs should be borne
In mind in discussions regarding the future loan
market; also large financial operations by cor
porations that will be announced in the course
or the next few months Since January / up-
ward Of $500. 900 new securities have come