New-York tribune., 1909-11-21
ELECTION OUTLOOK
BLUNDEPS OF LORDS.
Both Liberals and UmOnists
Confident Of Victory.
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London. Nov. 2o-Engiish. politics
has ceased 10 be dramatic because
everything is known in advance and
there are no startling surprises. The
suspension Of the budget is proclaimed
as a foregone conclusion next week, and,
with one exception. the action OF every
prominent member of the Lords is fore
cast with confidence This exception is
Lord Rosebery. II is not known
whether he will speak or whether he will
vote with Lord Lansdowne. although his
hostility 10 the budget is not concealed.
He may produce a great sensation by op-
posing Lord Lansdowne's resolution. not
because he likes the budget. but because
he is a profound student of Napoleonic
literature and knows that il is bad
strategy TO do what the enemy wants TO
have done.
This is what the Lords are doing.
They received their cue from the men,
Der for West Birmingham. who is an
other Grand Old Man, in a hurry. and
are acting upon it when they would be
shrewder politicians if they were to sane
tion the budget. With a rider that the
NbIANAN SilOQ4Q ut GOtlSQllGu as 5OOH
possible. This is 1.-The Spectators" be-
lated compromise, proposed hopelessly
this morning. They would have avoided
the constitutional issue I'm this way.
would have compelled the government
TO go TO the country in January. and
probably would have carried a majority
Of seats on the straight issue between
the budget and tariff reform. AS il is
they have enabled the ministers to shift
the issue from the budget to power over
purse. and have largely increased the
chances Of Liberal success.
The suspension Of the budget is equiva-
lent 20 rejection. since it involves a gen.
eral election and the reconstruction of
the financial policy by the new Parlia-
ment. 1t is coup d'etat, which. if sane
toned by the people, will enable the
Lords TO exercise control over finance.
This they have not done for centuries.
and in a country where precedent takes
the place of a written constitution. it is
a revolution more momentous than any
thing involved in the so-called socialistic
finance. Yet it will be brought about
next week by a large majority in the
Lords with the approval OF Lord Lans-
downe and Mr.. Balfour.
The Prime Minister will require an
other fortnight for the passage of a
resolution protesting against the In
vasion of the rights of the representative
house. and the Liberal party will be
united in a great canvass for defence
OF the supremacy Of the Commons. The
TrfGh NJ anA
measure will probably be saved and the
budget got rid of temporarily. to the re-
lief of the land owners and publicans.
What the ultimate result will be is one
Of the secrets of an inscrutable sphinx
like democracy. l am told that the
member for West Birmingham predicts
the return of the Unionists by a majority
Of sixty over all parties. A close calcu-
lator on the tariff reform side tells me
that the Unionists will certainly have a
majority Of forty over the Liberals. La
Dor and NationaIists. The Liberals, on
the other hand, confidently assume that
they will have substantial majority in
the next Parliament. Their minimum
estimate is eighty over the Unionists
and Nationalsts. and they expect that
these figures may be doubled if a work.
ing arrangement can be made with the
Labor PARTY for the avoidance of three
cornered contests.
This was Herbert Gladstones main
contribution TO the success OF the last
Liberal canvass. but another Warwick
must now be found, as he is retiring
from Parliament to become the nrst
Viceroy Of United South Africa
The choice Of Sir Arthur Wilson as
Lord Fishers successor as first sea
lord and Lord Charles Beresford's ac-
tive canvassing AT Portsmouth are bring
ing the demoralizing naval feuds TO al
end. Sir Arthur is the best strategist in
the navy and the inevitable commander
Of the fleet whenever there may be a
sudden outbreak of hostilities
L Y ?