Los Angeles herald., 1909-03-18
WEATHER FORECASTER
ANSWERS CRITICISMS
STORM ON INAUGURATION DAY
MOST UNEXPECTED
Only One Prediction in Ten Made by
Bureau Fails of Notification and
the Service Is of High
Order

The unusual storm occurring at
Washington ON the day Taft was in
augurated has called forth great deal
of comment from newspapers in every
section of the country. Many of these
comments were so adverse to the
weather bureau that men in that serv-
ice believe the peculiar situation pre-
vailing at that time in the middle At
lantic states is not appreciated by the
public.
A. B. Wollaber, local forecaster of
the weather bureau, is of that opinion.
The facts relating to weather condi-
tions at the national capital on in
auguration day have been received by
Mr.. Wollaber in the following letter
from Prof. Willis l.. Moore, chief of
the United States weather bureau:
Forecasts of the weather bureau are
before the public every day in the year.
In the past about one prediction out
of ten failed to be verified, and it
may be expected that the same ratio
of failure will be maintained until
meteorology can be made what it is
not now-an exact science.
"In the case of the storm that visited
Washington March last, the fact is
that the disturbance began here on
the morning of March 8 and was ac-
curately forecasted the day before
The bureau anticipated that the storm
center would pass over the middle At
lantic states during the night of March
3, and that northwest winds and falling
temperatures would leave a clear day
for March 4. The center passed pre-
cisely as forecast, the wind shifted
and the temperature fell; but, instead
of the northwest wind clearing the
sky, as it does in nearly all cases, pre-
cipitation in the form of snow occurred
and continued for twelve hours after
the storm center had just passed east
ward. No forecaster could foresee this.
Conditions Exceptional
"Were we to forecast fall of snow
following the passage of storm centers
that move from the northwest we
would have hundreds of failures
charged against us, instead of an occa-
sional one, for it is rare that snow
falls in the middle Atlantic states ex-
cept with the approach of storm
from the southwest. which causes
northwest winds, and it is extremely
rare that any storm in this region that
begins with rain ends with snow of any
considerable amount. On the contrary,
many storms that begin as snow end
as rain.
1.-THE forecast in question was made
casters of the bureau, and was con-
CURED in by all the forecasters who
were conversant with the conditions
and the same forecast would be made
today if similar conditions existed.
"The forecasters of the United
States weather bureau are the equals,
if not the superiors, of any others in
the world, and their predictions Of
frosts cold waves, floods and marine
storms, although subject to error in the
proportion of about one to ten, are Of
such value to the industries of the
nation that If one of the newspapers
that now so freely criticise because two
unverif1ed forecasts for the District of
Columbia have fallen on Inauguration
day were to omit from it's pages the
daily predictions of the weather. its
readers would compel it to restore
them, and II the department or con-
gress were to close a station of the
bureau in any part of the United
States the property interests would de-
mand it's restoration. This would not
be the case If the hysterical abuse that
is now being INDUCED in were justi-
fed