New-York tribune., 1909-12-13
WHEAT AND TIE ITORLD.

Mr.. James J. Hill continues his warn
ings and exhOrtationS, the latest. uttered
at the National Corn Exposition at
Omaha. being TO the effect that we shall
before long have to import wheat If we
do not increase the productiveness of our
farms. Goals 10 Newcastle would on the
face of it seem Ia be reasonable trade
compared with shipping wheat 10 the
greatest wheat growing land on earth.
Yet the essential facts are not all on the
surface. To those who look deeply into
the matter there is seen To be only too
much cause for Mr.. Hills warnings. for
the fact is that the United States is
steadily declining in its production Of
wheat i'm proportion 10 its own popula-
tion and is very rapidly declining in pro-
portion 10 the product of other countries.
The United States has the unenviable
prominence of being the only great wheat
country-eXcepting Argentina. where con-
ditiOns are so different rs not to be right
ly cOmparable-the population of which
is increasing more rapidly than the pro-
duction Of wheat In the twenty five
years from 1881 to 1906 the thirteen
creased in population 26 per cent and in
production Of wheat 2S per cent. As for
Canada and Australia, their population
increased ~ per cent and their wheat
yield 40 per cent. But in the same
period the United States and Argentina
grew In population as per cent. but in
wheat production only 80 per cent. In
Argentina the growth of population has
been more largely through immigration
than i'm the United States. and the differ
ence between IL and the growth in wheat
production is less significant. But here
IL should be quite obvious that il the
population continues TO increase consid-
erably faster than the growth of wheat
IL is only question Of time when The
wheat crop will be insufficient To feed the
people.
At the present time the United States
produces about One-fifth of the worlds
wheat crop and is probably still the chief
wheat country, though in some years
Russia has surpassed IL. But Argentina
now produces one-fourth as much and
Canada one-sixth as much. while Aus
tralias crop Is at least one-seventh as
large as ours. The prOportionate exports
Of some Of these countries are far greater
than ours. In some years Argentina has
actually exported more wheat. not only
propOrtionately hut absolutely. than the
United States. As for the outlook for
future growth. we have already pointed
out that If all The available aud highly
fertile wheat land Of Canada were cult
waited and produced AT the same average
rate as the present wheat farms of that
country they would be ample to supply
the whole world.
Now. the most important point in Mr..
Hills address was the reminder that our
decline as a wheat growing country is
due TO our failure 10 get rs great a Yield
from the acre as our rivals get Russia
alone ranks below us. with less than 10
bushels: but surely we do not wish Ia be
compared with land in which agricuIt-
ure is in 80 primitive state Our own
yield is less than II bushels. while Aus
/, tria-llungary's is nearly IS. Frances is
nearly 20. Canada's is more than ~.
Germany's is - and Great Rritain's is
no less than -. Mr. Hill contends. with
reason. That we ought To improve our
methods of farming 50 as 10 increase ma
terialy our average yield.
Ii ought Ia be possible for us Ia in
crease our average 10. say. ~ bushels.
or about the same as that of Canada and
France. Certainly We should not lag be
hind either in scientific knowledge of
soils and the treatment of them. and Il
would I've sad rcproach 10 us 10 he their
inferior i'm enterprise and thrift. The
vasiDeSs of our Western wheat fields has
too much blinded us 10 the need of main
tanning and increasing their virgin fer
tility. II has been Il great thing Ia meas
ure wheat farms not by the acre. but by
the square mile: hut il is the size of the
crop rather than the size of the field at
counts.