Goldsboro semi-weekly argus., 1909-09-01
CO110N PROSPECTS
Condition of Crop Has De.
cIined Since August
1st.
RumOrs of Forthcoming Bullish Re.
ports by Ginners' Association and
Observation-Disclosures
Reports.

Reports.
New York, Aug. 2S.-For one cause
or another the drift of cotton prices
most of the time has been upward
Many of the crop reports have beer
u~nfavorable. Texas has sent com
plants OF dry hot weather. Somt
crop guesses from that State are yer.
much smaller than they were recent
1y. Excessive heat is supposed t.
have caused much shedding. In GeoT
gia and Alabama shedding is said t
be general, owing to hot, dry wealth
er, and there, as in many other sec.
lions, the plant is said to be from
one to three weeks late. A rumo5
that the National Ginners' report
would put the general condition a
only GA per cent. has had some effect
It was in line with a very general ex
report now so near at hand would b
bullish. That it will show some de
cline from the August condition OF
71.9 per cent. is taken for granted
Last year the September condition
was ZIG per cent. on a crop OF say
1880, 900 bales. In 1907 it was 72.t
with a yield of 1875, 900 bales. IL
1906, with a yield of 11,375,000 bales,
In 1906, a September condition OF
77.3 per cent. meant 13,711,UOO bales;
in 1905 one Of 72.1 per cent. resulted
in 11,346, 900. In 1899 n 1900 II
was 63.2 to 68.5 and it foretold a
crop failure in each case; that is
9,436,O0O to 1~O,3S3,OO0 bales, and 1902
it was down to "a per cent, With q
yield of 1O,728,000 bales on an area
of 24,275, 900 to 27,114,O0O acres fol
these three years as against a presen.
area of something in excess of $4,000,
900 acres. The average Septembe4
condition for ten years is 1876 PEI
cent, and this year it may fall vel.
below 20. The question is whether
such a condition has been or has not
been discounted in the present price.
Opinions on this vital point are, as
may be imagined, Numerically OPP
posed.
Trade continues to improve. Re
ports from Manchester and the cont
nent are in some cases very cheer.
full. Calcutta business is said to b
better. Russia's purchase OF yarns
according to some adv1ces, ere lars
err. Spinners in this country are sa-
to be buying somewhat more freely
Large spot interests have been buy
inc. So have Wall Street, Chicag
and Southern houses. The New Yort
stock still steadily decreases. 1t i
only aquestion of time when it vii
have to be r~eplenished if New 4ors
is to have any sort of basis for It.
trading in futures" The weekly sta
tistics as to spinners' taklngs ant
shrinkage in worlds stocks are bull
ish. Receipts at the ports and Ill
terror towns look small enough b
comparison with last years Wis
ible supply of all kinds OF cotton IL
the world is approximately 3SG,O0t
bales, smaller thai at this time il.
1907, the year, it would seem, wit
which comparisons should now bS
made, for in that year the crop was
1875, 900 bales, following one OF
1851 900 against which many people
believe that a yield of somewhat s4ml
lar size is all that can be expects
this year. However this may be, II
has recently been found impossible
to depress the price to the 12-cent
level, to say nothing of II II cents
which some of the bears pred1Gte,
for the past week, with II cents o.
less as the ultimate objective points
On the other hand, speculation ha
Jagged. A creeping advance has bee
due more to professional covering ant
manipulation than anything else. /
lis still insisted by some that Texa
crop will be SO large as to surpF1s
the pessimists. The rains and coole
weather have improved the prospect,
in that State. Spinners are still l..
the main pursuing a cautious policy
Some reports are that improvement
in European trade is exaggerated, tina
in reality it is still far from satlslac,
tory. Rumors of increased trf'de witt
China have not been fully oonflf1nea
In this country conservatism Is stli
the dominant note, despite some az
emitted increase in general trade, es
epeciaIly in iron and steel. Many cot
ton mills at home and abroad al.
believed to b. carrying good supple
r the raw material. The visthie sup
uly is comparatively large ard tE
weight eff even a small croo is usual
ily seen in a decline of prices at tt.
opening of a new season.
Meantime the generality of paopl
ale awaiting the government r6',or
of 2 as something which may CIV
the cue as to the course of the@prle
In the near future. AS the week Ore
to a close the upward tendency DC
came more pronounced while ther
was a material increase in b Yol
ume OF business. Prices were force
to an advance of some 300-eed point
for the week under active short coy
ering and heavy buying for Memphl
account. In addition to more ba
eron naws from the Southwest, pes