The Abbeville press and banner. [volume] (Abbeville, S.C.) 1869-1924, 1909-11-10
Will GO HIGHER
Frank Hayne Says Fifteen Cents is Too
Little for Cotton
THE CROP VERY SHORT

tive of This State, is Optimistic
and Reviews Recent Market His
tory and Deduces Strong Belief
in Yet Higher Price Levels.
Mr.. Frank B. Hayne, a South Caro-,
linian now living in New Orleans
who has labored consistently fol
higher prices for cotton this season,
has outlined his reasons for saying
that fifteen cents is too little for
cotton as follows.
when the government bureau
report, issued IN August 2, showed a
condition of 11.9 per cent, l felt con-
vinced the crop could not possibly
reach $4,000, 900 bales. and that cot
ton was selling far below it's real
value. When the government report.
issued on September 2. showed a con-
dition of 63.7 per cent, I felt salts
fed that 100000 bales was the
maximum possible for the crop and
at that time received a telegram from
Mr.. J. N. Wisner of New Orleans.
asking Mr.. w. P. Brown and myself
to telegraph him in full u views
on the situation. Mr.. Brown was
| absent, so l replied to Mr.. Wisner
by telegraph as follows:
1--WE look at the situation as fol-
lows: D%iscounting every favorable
| condition that can arise until Decem-
Der /, the government report indi-
Gates a maximum crop Of 11,260.000,
and with unfavorable conditions
might easily be 100000 bales less.
| Consumption last year, 100000,
in spite of short time in England
and continent. With largest Ameri-
can crop ever produced the price
advanced $40 a bale while being
marketed and the visible supply Is
far less than two years ago. With
a certainty that 13,500,000 will real
ly be needed by the country and that
| probably less than 100000 will
,e grown, an eventual advance Is
simply unavoidable. Under normal
| conditions the market should have
| certainly advanced to Is cents yes
| .erday, but was kept down by the
enormous selling Of the bear clique.
| These sellers base their action on
the supposed helplessness of the
South, thinking the South will be
| forced to sell it's cotton at any price
the spinners are willing to take It
It. We consider that the compe.
tition between spinners who will
certainly require 100000 bales
monthly will take care o fthis so
called distressed cotton. If the
bankers of the South will help the
farmer to market his cotton slowly.
We firmly believe it will be worth
Is cents In the next so days. The
weakness in our opinion OF the
bears argument is that. although the
producer may be foolish enough to
be willing to sell his cotton far be-
low it's actual value, we hardly think
that the spinner will be foolish
| enough, when he fully realizes the
| facts of the case, not to start buy
ing freely at these prices and thus
avoid the scramble for spot cotton
that will surely take place some time
during the season.
The Southern farmer has sold at
least 5000, 900 bales Of cotton on
which he realized probably $780,
600 1000. 1t was very hard to con"
vince the farmer that IL cents was
| not an extreme price for his pro-
duct, but through the efforts OF a
Few Southern men. they finally rea-
| lized the fact that they were sacri-
| ficing their cotton. and ] believe that
at least $4,000. 900 more has been
obtained for the cotton marketed
TO date than would have been II 1t
had not been for the efforts OF this
small coterie of Southern men.
MY prediction on September 3 OF
Il cents in the next so days has no"
come true. but at that tim" thought
the crop would be from 1l.25O.OO0
to 10000 bales. | now feel con
| fdent that the maximum o this
| crop is l0.750,000 bales. The prob
ability is that It will be under TO-
| 1000 bales; and there is a pos
| sibility Of it's not reaching 10000
900 bales. Under the present con-
ditions | now feel that Is cents Is
as much too cheap for cotton as II
1-2 cents seemed 20 ME on September
8.
I'm 10000, known as the 'Sully
year. the crop was 10,011,0OO bales
and the consumption only 10.083.-
900 bales. and last year the n
SUMPTION increased ~3,074.000 bales.
or 30.49 per cent. The visible sup
ply on the 1st OF September, this
season, was 1,472.000 and on the Is;
of September, 1903. was $1,000
bales or only $4,000 bales less,
therefore in the 'Sully year with a
visible supply on September l OF
$1,000 bales aud a crop OF To-
011,000 bales, the world bad 49,
$4,000 bales Of cotton. Of which
they used 10,0S3 900 bales. The
visible supply on the 1st Of Sep
TENDER this year was 1.472'0o0
bales. If the crop should only prove
10,50O.O00 bales, the world will have
a supply of only 11,S72,oo0 bales