Putnam patriot., 1909-06-11
Fmpiric Prophecies.

phecies as are mol based upon present atmospheric aspects and conditions. In these fifty years l have witnessed the rise, decline and fall of many a po- pular prophet. They do not usually proclaim abroad the basis upon which their predictions are founded. Many, We believe, are founded upon zodaical signs and planetary coniunctions which might be called rather esoteric than empirie. We do not know what afiin- ities may subsist between the members of our solar system. That tremendous force of gravila,ion holding their migh- ty orbit in space may include sympa. thetic elements in many lines. on this same ground would not deny the pes- sibility of lunar influence, excluding, however, that apparently irrelevant augury by horizontal and perpendicu- lar position. If we could assume that the moon, by reason of her superior out look, could foresee the coming storm or clearance, and had arranged signal service, more patent to simple faith than to seientid de investigation il might meet the demands of the situation. But even then we might question her ability to grapple with both horns of thu dilemma and satisfy the varying conditions of her wide area of country. The making the twelve days of Christ. mas ''serve as almanac for the coming year. each day typifying weather con ditions of the successive months, Is an- other of those arbitrary, empiric signs, having no possible connection with the fulflment of it's prophecy. Yet 1t Is apparently of very ancient origin and acceptance, some carrying their belief so far as to place upon their mantel n scheme showing both the type and its agreement herewith, and as no month could maintain throughout literal &C., cordance, they usually found sufficient points Of contact to justify the faith of It's believers. In case of utter failure they could lay the blame to the last Fri day of the preceding month which shared the gift of irrelevant prophecy.
 Many of our signs have come from q too narrow interpretation of natural law. The universe Is governed by law. Summer and winter, day and night, all come in their appointed time and or der. "AIl sorts and conditions of weather and storm are included in a years curriculum, and there is often
 an element of periodicity in their ad- ministration. It is a common belief q Id sign that if the first Sabbath of a
 month Is stormy, each successor will follow it's bad example. Housekeepers note succession of stormy Mondays. Again, the midweek prayer meeting is the weekly victim. School children lament the continuance of sunless Sat urdays. Attempts to formulate any trustworthy forecasts from this tenden' cy have proved fallaeious and wrecked aspiring prophets. My own experience in this line has paralleled that with the
 moon.
 Early in my observations l chanced
 to light upon the theory in Dickinson <
 "Household Words" that compre
 hensive weather cycle was inelosed in
 period of fifteen years, covering eve. ry variety of heat, cold, wet, dry, storm
 tempest, etc. l was struck with tht cores pondence between this period and
 the seven years each of plenty and fla
 mine prefigured in Pharaoh's dream
 and interpreted by Joseph, and guerieo
 as 10 the possibility of establishing { line Of atmospheric succession dating back to the days Of Pharaoh. A few links would of necessity be lacking be- tween three or four thousand E. C. and
 1850 A. D., but from the time of tho landing of the Pilgrims there was quite reliable data. There were reports ol great storms, lidal waves, unfaihoma
 bIe snow storms, destructive thoughts etc. But all attempts al collaboration
 at making any one of these historic outbreaks form the center Of compre- hensive cycle from which others could be projected, were utterly fruitless. Re search in local and family diaries dat ing back at least century, were equal. ly unsuccessful. 1 found, too, that pc riodistic prophets met with similar fail ure. The much heralded storm failed to make it's appearance and an uniime. ly blizzard rushed in nnawares. Hosea BigeIow's advice might be needed :-- Don't, Nell ever prophecy unless you know.n
 ft is true, indeed, that there Is ten dency to repetition in some feature Of successive seasons. After this the ex- ceptinnalIy hard winters Of 1916 and onward, there came period of such mildness and abstinence from snowfall that people talked of turning their sleighs aud sleds Into kindling- wood, and this WAS followed by decade of snowbound winters. Hol and cold summers sometimes follow in conseen- tive series, bat they are not sufficient lv defined to form a basis for amateur prophecy. It may be in time that our Weather Bureau may achieve the iong- range forecasts of which NC sometimes hear. bot considering the climatic con dition Of the Temperate gone Of our United states of North America, il would seem beyond the power of hD- man manipulation. According to the old rule of perturbation as promulgated