The Fargo forum and daily republican., 1909-01-05
BradStrcet Reviews 1908
and Forecast for 1900

tAe autumn. Clearings for the year,
which were the smallest since 1908,
were at the lowest in February, and at
their highest In December. Foreign
trade shrunk from the record totals
OF 1907, with the largest loss in I'm
ports. Reduced foreign buying ability
was reflected I'm our export trade late
In the year. Indu-triai movements In
iron, coal, coke and other production,
and In building, showed shrinkages
from 1907 or 1906 records. Failures
increased 81 per cent In number, but
liabilities shrunk 2l per cent from
1907, January holding the years record
for casualties and damage alike, but
the years failures were below those of
either 1898 or 1896 Activity I'm build
ing was most marked in the last half.
but the decrease in expenditures from
1907 was 10 per cent, and from 1905,
1876 per cent The commodity price
movement was a marked feature.
From the high point In 1907, on March
/, to the low point on June 1. 1908
prices fell Is per cent, but regained
z per cent of this loss in the later
summer, fall and early winter. The
strength of cereals and food products
creased strain on poorly employed or
paid labor, Cotton vas an exception
to the strength of most products,
dropping 3 cents from the high price
at the opening of the year Strikes
were comparatively few, one large coal
dispute going far to swell totals. I'M
migration fell off sharply, but later
began again to increase Railway
-,
hand, bankruptcies were comparatively
few and relatively unimportant.
A Look Ahead.
It would, of course, be unwise to
say that the outlook is entirely clear.
There is still a measure of doubt as
TO the reality Of some of the improve~
ment shown on the surface of things.
Shocks and damage like those received
slightly over q year ago are not at
once taken up and repaired. Short
hours are still common In industry,
and some time must elapse before pub
lie buying ability equals that before
the panic. Some OF the optimism dis
played in the securities market a
month or SO ago was not fully shared
in by many lines of business. There
are problems to +. met and solved
before American trade and industry
are fully restored to the normal. One
of these is the question whether the
admittedly excessive cost of conduct
ing trade and industry, because OF
high prices for food, and hence for
labor, will not have to be adjusted.
Bearing upon this is the probable pro-
portion of the European demand for
our products in 1909, in view of the
fact that trade among our best foreign
customers is still very much depressed.
Our winter wheat crop at present
does not promise to be burdensome,
and foreign trade is declining. Then
the tariff revision outlook is not en-
tirely settled yet. 1t reems, too, as If
further growth in trade, which
is confidently looked for in 1903, might
have some important temporary eff
fects upon the money markets and
possibly upon security prices, as will
the continuance OF, what seems to be
necessary, very large future borrow
ings by railroads for improvements.
In the end, Of COTE, these expendi-
lures must rebound to the benefit OF
general business. Stocks are not bur-
densone, hand to mouth buying
movement having long prevailed, and,
moreover, well settled policy of re-
preston has been carried out, as q
result OF which speculation and over
straining Of credits in distributive
lines have been minimized. With past
experience as guide, and with events
OF 1907 and 1908 immediately in mind,
1t is to be observed that panic history
does not necessarily repeat itself along
precisely similar lines. Governing
these manifestations more and more,
nowadays, are the chas -es in UNDER
lying American flnoncial and business
conditions, the growth Of population
and the diversifcation and the solid
erity Of industry, wh,,h all serve to
absorb shocks and to readjust matters
in a way superior TO what was possible
In other years OF Strain. All things
considered, the country really = and,
what Is equally Important really feels
in far tier shape than d year ago
and this gair In optimistic sentiment,
with the knowledge that we have been
partially spared one OF the worst ef-
fects OF previous great panics--long
continued and acute depression, with
the consequent sacrifice OF business