The Birmingham age-herald. [volume] (Birmingham, Ala.) 1902-1950, 1909-01-03
FURTHER RISE IN
STOCKS EXPECTED
Tariff Revision Causes No Scare
on Street
NEW MOVES BY HARTMAN
The Earthquake Induced Considerable
Selling of American Securities for
Foreign ACCOUNTABLE Wander
bilt Interests outgeneraled?
BY w. G. NICHOLAS.

having passed into history everybody
looks ahead trying to fathom what the
future may hold out during the coming
year The outlook is very decidedly bet
ter than it was year ago. There has
been a larger measure of recovery in the
stock market than anywhere else. Seven
ty-five per cent of the active stocl,s on
the list have regained from 30 to 50 per
cent of losses from previous higll-water
marks. In some cases the rise mas almost
wiped out the panic shrinkage. In many
quarters it is contended that the stock
market should now wait until tile rest
of the business world moves up into line
That, however, has been the cry every
day for the last eight months, yet stock
prices have continued to rise with very
slight interruption throughout that en-
tire period. They may continue to rise,
for the market is In the same strong
hands that has been engineering the bull
campaign from the start. As long as
money remains in abundant supply and
can be had cheap, the speculation may
go on regardless of outside conditions.
1t depends almost wholly on the will of
a small group of men in control of both
stocks and the New York banks and trust
companies. They have foun1 the going
easy and may wish to prolong the enter
tainment
Expectations of further rise in securi-
ty quotations are based on the theory
that general business will gain In volume
and momentum and that the railroads
will be able to increase their earnings
both gross and net from the rise In
freight rates From the talk heard one
might assume that this advance in rates
is all ahead of us. In point of fact the
schedules have been moved up gradual
ly for the last six or eight months. The
change has been made so quietly and al
most stealthily that the public at large
does not realize what has been going on.
The most conspicuous advance is that
advertised on the roads west of the Missis-
sippi and styled generally under the head
of trans-continental. There has been
grand uprising on the Pacific coast
against this increase in the freight tariff,
but only the faintsst echoes of the
tumult has reached Wall street and
without producing the slightest market
effect Later on the east may be obliged
to take notice-that is, If the Pacific
coasters take their case before the inter-
state commerce commission and Con-
gress according to the loudly proclaimed
programme. AS matters stand the rail-
roads are seemingly Indifferent to the
public attitude on this proposed advance
in freight rates. The fixed determine
ton is to put into effect higher rates
wherever it can be done without loss
of business. They feel they have the
right of the argument and are going
ahead Should this move be followed by
, increased revenues of consequence, then
the railroads will be in position to raise
new capital for Improvements, extensions
of1,a !, te rf,ta -
things arrives then will the orders pour
In for material which will set the Wheels
and the mills going again and stimulate
the industaral activity up to the old
time standard.
Meantime the railroads are not going
into the market to borrow money on
any considerable scale. In the MAN, they
are combining their efforts in the borrow
ing line to arrangements for refunding
short time loans and floating indebted
ness into long term bonds. The aggregate
amount Of short term railroad notes out
standing which will have to be taken care
for this year and next approximate $780,
600 600. About half of that sum becomes
due this year. AS soon as the idle money
finds Its way into investment channels
and into commerce and trade. then rates
may be expected to harden and specula-
tors will find their scalping profit on bor-
rowed money getting thinner and thinner.
The last year has been the harvest time
for the rich stock market gamblers and
the situation savers" In time this
class of operators will have to make way
for the Legitimate" Meantime they still
hold the advantage and there is no reason
why they should step aside.
For some reason the stock market re-
fuses to take anything of a scare
on account of the tariff revision which
is to take place next spring and summer
Word comes from Pittsburg. Chicago
Cleveland and other industrial centers
north and south. that there is local alarm,
but 1t has failed to communicate to this 4
section The feeling hereabouts deepens !
that when Congress gets down to brass
tacks there will be really very little re-
vision that can hurt. 1t is recalled that
the republican party stands pledged to
do nothing which will discourage conf
dence or retard return to full pros
perty. This pledge it Is thought will
take precedence of promise for tariff re-
VISION. The latter will, 1t Is thought
be framed upon developments which man
ufacturers, merchants and bankers will
De able to show before the voting begins.
Several magazines and many newspapers
are reaching an agreement as to what the
new law ought to be-that Is, they are
picking out schedules here and there
which should, in their opinion be cut
and slashed. Congress. which is entrust-
ed with the actual work of revision, re-
mains to be heard fro mand as every
congressman will be personally and polit-
ically interested in protecting his own
locality, the practical chances are against
drastic action. 1t is the old case of the
cohesion of selfish interests opposed to
the abstract demand of a public which
realizes that a reduction In duties would
be to its advantage. but hasn't time to
go to Washington Sc, 600 strong to argue
the matter Hence. the skepticism of
Wall street and its rejection of scare talk
on this subject. Between Washington
and New York there exists the closest
relationship. This does not imply any,
thing corrupt or improper. 1t simply
means that Washington is the political
heart of the nation New York is the
financial center and the headquarters OF
in the United States Almost every large
industry in America is represented here
and the financial district keeps in close
touch with every feature and phase of
development and activity. This just comes
about naturally.
The two items of news which connect
up with Mr.. Hartman this week are re-
ports that he Is working hard and with
good prospects of success for the election
of his friend l.. r. Ioree, to the prest-
dency of the New York Central. In the
place Of Mr.. Newman. retired, This in
telligence is a shock to the friends of
Vice President w. c. Brown, who was
pop,larly supposed to he slated for the
lob Mr. I.oree Is at the present time
president of Mr.. Harriman's Delaware
and Hudson system. Previous to that he
had broken away from the presidency OF