The sun., 1909-02-21
WILL AUSTRIA GRAB SBRVIAY
ONLY FEAR OF GENERAL WAR
RESTR4INS HER.
First Step In Her Advance 10 saionlea
Deep scheme 10 Throw Blanc on
Nictlm-Powers Except Russia Luke
warm ~ To Serbs s-Cserman Puzzle.

''cum-FoWers Except Russia LUX o
warm ~ 10 Serbs Herman Puzzle
Special CdNs Dsspaieh 10 The SUN.
LONDON, Feb. 20.-The latest war scar,
comes almost as q novelty. After lapse
OF several weeks the financial world Is TAX.
ing the reported bellicose situation be.
tween Austria and Servia quite seriously
but the crisis is by no means as grave as l,
was late In the autumn.
i War between the two countries would
be fraught with far less danger to the gen.
eral peace to-day than It would have been
during the period of acute peril Of Euro
pean conhagration three months ago.
There has not been much progress made
during the interval toward assembling a
European conference on the subject of the
Berlin treaty; but several OF the thorniest
problems OF the Balkan situation are prac-
tically solved and there Is much more
conoiliatory feeling between the Powers
regarding the points still unsettled.
1t Is almost q political axiom that no
country desires any serious disturbance
OF the peace. Austria would curtail her
ambition rather than risk IT, On the other
hand there Is not much doubt that II Aus
tria were convinced that she could whip
Servia without the trouble spreading she
would be glad to undertake the job.
1t Is essential to the realization Of her
desire to extend her domain toward Sa-
lonica that Servia be crushed both in an
economic and a military sense. She would
accomplish this at single blow il she
dared. 1t can be safely denied, however,
that Austria contemplates an immediate
move in this direction. Her case is not
strong enough, and even Won Aerenthal
understands now that he cannot trample
again rou ehshod over moral principles in
dealing with weaker people.
His plan. more probably, is to con-
tinue to utter virtuous protests against
Servia's military preparations until the
end OF March, when the Austro- -Servian
commercial treaty will expire. Then he
will close Austria's doors against Servian
commerce. an act which would mean
ruin to Servia's foreign trade and eco
nomio disaster II long continued
IL. as would be natural, the Servian
attitude becomes more aggressive Aus
tria would then feel herself compelled
to make military demonstration against
her small neighbor War would probably
follow, but the responsibility would be
entirely Servia's and Austria would be
morally compelled to punish her in
defence Of Austro- Hungarian dignity
What could be more correct than Aus
tria's course under such circumstances,
and what excuse would even the Russian
pro-Slav sympathizers have for inter-
ferins?
This, hrieey, is the situation with which
European diplomacy has to deal during
the ensuing six weeks. Great Britain,
France, Russia aud Italy all earnestly
desire TO avert Servia's doom IL Ger |
many does not interfere they can prevent
Austria from profiting terrtorially by her |
course Of action, at least for the present.
but their Intervention would require a |
definite threat OF war to be effectual. Is
Il worth while for them to take the risk |
Of such an extreme course?
Servia's champions. except Russia
have no very strong sympathy with her.
Her recent political history is too dark
and even her present condition Is too
dubious to command much respect among
he western nations. The Russian sup
port OF the Serb cause is alone whole
hearted. That Of the three western Powers
s based chiefly upon self-interest and the
general European situation. They would
sacrifice Servia without compunction
'ather than seriously risk a war in which
hey might be involved.
Austria, OF course. knows this and sees
n it her opportunity to bluf through her
ambitious policy. The position of Ger
many is the unknown and most i'm
,ortant factor. This much can be said.
Is the result Of the conferences that took
,lace in Berlin during the Kings recent
'isit much less apprehension is felt in
diplomatic circles on this point. The
balkan problem was exhaustively dis
ussed by the German and English states
nen. and the German declarations left no
'eaoe while acknowledging her full duty
o support her ally.
There is reason also to believe that the
imperor and his advisers were fully con- /.
'inced OF the sincerity and pacific nature
4 the British policy. No definite agree
nent was reached. but feeling OF mutual
onfidence was established, which is Of
nestimable value in the present situation.
The greatest element Of uncertainty ,
, OF course the impulsive action which {
ervia and Montenegro may take at any ,
and which will almost inevitably
esult TO Austrias advantage: and SO the
ut not so crowded with perils to the whole
uropean world as the situa ton was few
,onths ago. !