The San Francisco call., 1909-11-01
DISCOUNT ALLEGED
INDEPENDENT SLUMP
Surface Indications Fail to Yer.
ify Wild Forecasts Made
by Candidates
BETTORS UNAFFECTED
BY LANDSLIDE REPORTS
By GEORGE A. VAN SMITH

q AVE for the issuance of mora
y managerial claims and one last
attempt on the part of all the
candidates and noise directors to start
or stem the tide of votes, the munici-
pal campaign of 1909 is over.
Candidates, campaign managers,
party workers, spell binders and in
terested parties have gone through
all the motions generally charac-
teristic of municipal campaigns. Their
cards are on the table now. 1t re-
mains for the people to compute the
score at the polls tomorrow and de-
clare the winners of their preferment-
The candidates for the principal
offices, naturally enough, are suffering
from violent attacks of that campaign
astigmatism which prevents an office
seeker from seeing anything but as
sured victory before him. The man
ayers of the three candidates for
mayor and two aspirants for the Office
of district attorney are either afflicted
with the same arrangement or sinu-
late its symptoms admirably.
The managers and candidates esti-
mates of their respective margins
range all the way from topheavy
pluralities up to tremendous majori-
ties In one instance the claim
amounts to virtually FIVE out of every
six votes TO be cast tomorrow.
Crocker and his managers are gen
orally agreed on an approximate
10000 votes for Crocker out of a
probable total of 65,OOO They assert
that Mccarthy will run second with
something like 10000 to 21,0O0 votes.
and that Leland will be a bad third
with total vote ranging from $4,000
to $4,000 votes.
Leland's estimators contend that
their candidate stands relatively in
the same position as regards the
whole vote that Mayor Taylor occu-
pied two years ago and that the par
risan candidates will finish in the 1907
order. Which, reduced to figures de-
signed to ht the probable vote on
Tuesday gives Leland something like
so. 600; Mccarthy 10000 or $1,000, and
Crocker $4,000 or $4,000
Mccarthy Managers Modest
The Mccarthy mathematicians decline
to bother about a division of the vote
that they are willing TO concede Crocker
and Leland will get. beyond insisting
that Crocker will run third in the race.
BY way of insuring the perpetuation of
their reputation for modesty they ad-
nit that they have thrown. roped and
tied only 1000 votes for Mccarthy out
OF a probable IS 900. AS to the division
Of the 2s.5oO or $4,000 votes which they
contend will be the aggregate of the
Crocker and Leland poll-that is mat
ter of no moment TO them. Indeed. they
are not prepared to burden their minds
with the consideration of inconsequen-
tial tribes
The management of Charles NJ. Flick
ert's campaign for district attorney put
what they consider or pretend to con-
slider an inside figure on Fickert's ma
jority over Francis ]. Heney when they
fix it at a probable $4,000. On a per-
centage basis they estimate a vote OF
approximately 5000 or more for Flick
ert as against vote of $4,000 or less
for Heney.
The Heney management fixes Heney's
estimated majority at from $4,000 to
10000. They base their estimates upon
what they believe to be an accurate ap-
probation of public sentiment and par
tial canvasses conducted by the several
organizations supporting Heney Their
figures involve rather more than the
of the vote for district attorney two
years ago when Langdon beat Frank
MCGOWAN. the union labor party can
didate.
So far as it is possible to get any
thing like an approximation OF the sit
uation from the surface there is vir-
tually nothing to indicate that any OF
the candidates or managers estimates or
forecasts are anything more than mere
guesses. No ante-election situation ever
presented more difficulties for the nm
biased student. The campaign manaeers
and the candidates can all see tremen-
dous landsiides headed their way. But
it is extremely difficult for them 70
produce more than theories and vehe-
ment assertions when an attempt il