Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1909-09-25
Director Durand at Banquet
Tells of Plans.
ACCURACY THE KEYNOTE
Value of Statistics Lies in Correct
Compilation and Interpretation.
FINDING THE ENUMERATORS
Difficulty in Getting Competent Men
for Short Term-Why Political
Appointments Are Made.


The taking of the thirteenth national
census and the many details mapped out
for the labors of the census takers by
which it is hoped to give the results to
the public quicker than it has received
those of any previous census. was the
subject of an address delivered by E.
Dana Durand. director of census. at a
quarterly meeting of the American Sta
tistical Association, held last night at
the Ebbitt House.
The meeting and the subject upon
which MIR. Durand spoke are of import
ance. because of the fact that among
his auditors were a number of the most
noted statisticians in the country, who
nave in way acted in an advisory ca
pacity to Mr.. Durand in the past several
months in mapping out many of the i'm
portant details in the coming work
The meeting was preceded by ban
quet, at which about seventy members
OF the association were present, repre-
Senting many of the most prominent
scientists of the larger cities in the east.
4 large delegation was present from Bos-
ton headed by Prof. c. t. Gettemy, su-
pervisor of the state census of Massa-
chusettS. and chief statistician of that
commonwealth.
In addition to Mr.. Durand, who deliv-
cred his address on the subject of The
Thirteenth Census DR.. Cressy l.. Will
bur. chief statistician of vital statlstics'
also spoke, taking as his subject "A
Statistical Pilgrimage DR.. Wilbur
delved into the intricate figures of his
work and held the close attention of his
audience for about an hour.
The meeting was presided over by Car
roll W. Doten. a member Of the Massa-
rDI Technology.
secretary of the association, and the
banquet was under the direct charge of
Henry #. NewcOmb, who held the posi-
ton of chief of the agricultural divi
sion in the twelfth census. About
Nessrs. Doten and Newcomb during the
banquet were seated Director of the Gem
sus Durand, Assistant Director of the
Census W. f. Willoughby. Dr. J. B.
Nichols and several we'll known statis-
teal scientists.
Accuracy" the Keynote.
Mr. Durant i'm his address said:
Accuracy is the fundamental require
ment of all statistical work. This means,
first. accuracy in collecting the original
material: second, accuracy in compiling
and tabuating it, and, third. accuracy in
analysing and interpreting 1t. The first
and the third stages in the process of sta
tistical work are extremely difficult, and 1t
is concerning these that / wish especially
10 speak. 1t is a matter of comparative
simplicity to secure accuracy in compiling
and tabulating statistics. The principal
problem here is to secure economy of time
and money. \ few words only as to the
methods OF compilation and tabulation
contemplated for the coming census will
he sufficient
THE population census of 1910 like that
of 1900. will be tabulated by the use of
punched cards. Every person in the
United States is given card. on which
the facts, with regard to sex. race, age,
birthplace. birthplace of parents, and the
like are indicated by the punching Of ap-
propriate holes. The number Of persons
possessing each specific characteristic or
combination of characteristics which it Is
desired to show in the final tables Is then
counted by means of electrical tabulating
machinery, electrical contacts being made
through the holes punched in the cards.
New Machines Obviate Errors.
THE punching machines to be used at
the present census differ very radically
from those used before, and will, it is
believed, not only increase the rapidity
of the work. but tend to reduce the num-
Der of errors on the part of the clerks
doing the punching. With the old punch
ing machine, il an error was made in a
single item-even though it might be the
last item to be punched on the card-the
entire card had to be destroyed. This con-
sumed time. and also resulted in temp
taton to the operator to let the error go
uncorrected. With the machines now to
be used, no hole Is punched In the card
until the keys for all the facts to be
punched have been set and if the operat-
or makes mistake by depressing the
wrong key lie can correct it before the
card is punched. 1t was not found pos
sib!e AT the last census to check all of
the cards back to the schedules. and it
will probably not be feasible to do SO at
of no pr6c ,a1
10y each operator are selected at random
and compared back, and if any appreci-
able percentage Of error Is discovered in
those thus compared the other cards
punched by the same operator are like
wise compared.
1t has too often been a vice of statis-
ticians to present to the public tables
purporting to show all sorts of important
facts, without due consideration of their
truthfulness. The general public who use
the statistics-in fact, even the trained
statisticians who use Them have in most
cases no means of discovering the mac
ctracy of such statistics and 90 on using
them in misguided confidence. The COM
piler of statistics has often been, uncon-
sciousiy perhaps, careless as to their ac-
curacy because of the lack of any posi-
charge of the collection of statistical data
ought himself to be the severe and un-
compromising critic of those data He
alone has approximately adequate means
OF Judging the degree of accuracy which
has been secured: and il is his duty hay-
ing done all that is possible to eliminate
error. TO inform the public fully and
frankly of the extent to which error pre-
sumably still persists. So far from taking
advantage of the fact that others cannot
discover the errors which are hidden away
In imposing looking totals he should
from that very fact recognize the more
clearly his own duty to explain Just how
much or how little the statistics may be
trusted.
Value of Approximations.
This does not mean. of course that the
statistlcian who knows that there are GER
tain error in his figures should straight
way declare them of no value Statistics
on certain subjects may be of very little