New-York tribune., 1909-03-07
GOVERNMENT CORPS BUSY
SEASON.
EUen Winter SRO1C in Mountains Is
Being Measured-Ne1c System
for Com piiing Forecasts.
Copyright 1909. by John Elrrsrh watkins,

tain tops Everything Is rfpening for spring
nood II we are 70 have one. Doubtless you have
never heard that the government has its food
prophets as wen as its rain. hail. snow and blow
prophets Well, it is true. and have Just had a
long chat with the chief OF this official CORPS OF
hood prophets, Professor H c. FrankenfeId in
OF the river and food service OF the central
weather bureau.
He spends upward OF E0Oe0 year-enouzh =
nave raid President RoOseveIts salary-fn teIs
graph tolls on his food warnings: but often a
thousand dollars to the citizen is saved By eacn
dollar spent on the entire food service. And its
Hood prophets are ashamed to look the world in
the race they don't predict the height OF rivers
rise within foot, in the rapid running rivers
OF the mountain regions. where the least accuracy
can be hoped for In the case OF the great slow
streams. such as the Mississippi Missouri AMI
Ohio, they generally hit it within from one To thres
inches Down at New Orleans sits local prophet
on Dr. Frankenheld's stan. who regularIy tells
within about two inches what the height OF the
Mississippi viii be three weeks hence If he rieh
predicts u rise TO twenty feet above low water
ther9 will be million and a half cubic feet OF
water rushing past him a second He can deal
with such enormous force and get it within two
inches And others do the same thing right along
But how is it done?
In the first place Professor Willis Moore chief OF
the Weather Bureau. has divided the country into
forty-fOCr river districts. containing sub-starons
five hundred in aII-with river gauges whose
readings are teIesraphed 70 the district headquar-
ters daily at a. N. Along the Mississippi thers
are no fewer than such districts. each with
a central station gathering daily reports from its
sub-dtstricts. Not only river gauge readings ars
daily wired to the district head. he gets also tho
rainfall and general state OF weather for his whols
district He adds all Of this information to a map
from which is made daily forecast OF the food
probabilities.
The range OF the forecast depends largely upon
location. Generally speaking, the nearer the
rivers mouth the longer the warning can be given
Thus dwellers along the upper Mississippi have but
little time to their property or themselves.
whereas those near its mouth get ample warning
Thus the alarm is given to two days ahead in
the upper districts, three to four days ahead be-
tween Keokuk and st. Louis and a week to ten
days ahead from Memphis to New Orleans. But
along the rapid running rivers OF the Atlantic and
Pacific slopes two days warning is all that
can be attempted Pttsburg is peculiarly Unfortu-
nate. Eighteen hours is the longest range OF food
warning that it can hope for And yet not busheI
OF coal goes out Of this port except Of these
daily forecasts of the stage Ohio River Two
million trainlOads OF coal stood ready and waiting
TO take instantaneous advantage OF the notice that
water coming end the tie-up last sumner
caused by the drOuth which dried Up that great
stream
! Cincinnati holds the record for variation
single river gauge-sixty-nine feet These gauges
great measuring rods thrust down 70 the river
bottoms and extending further above the sur1aca
than any flood is likely to f5ach- There are thirty
gauges scattered along the Mississippi alone. In
food times they read every hour or oftener
/ Professor FTankeEheid tells tndt ne IS now
working on a new forecast scheme BY which he -
able to take a rivers height a given point and
from that work out a forecast even more accurats
than formerly for another point given distances
away. Learning the amount OF water passing one
station. he now more exactly estimate the per-
csntags that will appear at the next station Ths
factors taken into consideration the water IN
sight. the rain that has fallen and is running into
the adjacent streams, the equivalent OF snow
on the ground. ;he dryness OF the soil. channel
changes, etc. He has been carefully working this
scheme for the Ohio River for the last three
years and It is in operation over So0 OF
the go miles OF that stream. A separate schems
has been worked out for each district OF this
troublesome river, except that between Cincinnati
and Parkersburg, wherein three distinct schemes
are applied. He says that the forecasts our big
rivers cannot be much improved upon Their every
food for the last ten years has been forecasted
with accuracy Improvements are being continual
" strivsn for along smaller rivers
Men with gauges upon the noun
tains OF the Atlantic and Pacific coasts measuring
the water which this snow will throw on into ths
surrounding rivers when the late winter thaw sets
in Each carries 21s-incE tube forty inches Ions
which is iabbed down here and there in the snow
crrIsts When such gauge is lifted its lower end
is closed and the height OF the column OF snow re-
naming inside is next measured by scale II -
then melted and the water compared with the orig
inaI quantity Of snow snow varies in density
that fourteen inches taken IN one place and only
two inches in another will both yield one inch OF
water. one TO ten is the average
II we have a twO-nch rainfall on top OF four
inches Of snow with two-inch water equivalent
we have food to deal with; whereas IL this four-
inch crust Of has water equivalent OF only
two-tenths OF an inch. the matter is not
serious The zaugers sound the snow where Trey
think it is Of mean depth, and finally strike an
average for all Of the measurements Thus the
gallons OF water in each square mile OF
measured where a river will be affected In the
East this work is done in the upper AlleghenIss
and along the New England rivers
Snow gauges OF rev design have Just been intro
duced in the Rocky Mountains, where they ars
being used all the way to the SUBMITS This work.
Just beginning. is in charge OF Professor F. H
I3igelov OF the weather bureau. and is pCrposed
TO aid in forecasting not only foods. but ths
amount Of water available each spring for rriga-
ton, and water power in the arid Southwest
Professor Bigelow will find out hew much snow
is stored in these mountain tops each year and
how much water it gives Of He IS designing
some ingenious and complicated apparatus for ths
work
There is food season for almost every region
Along the lower Mississippi IL begins IN February
or March and often early as January. But
along the upper banks il does not come generaiIy
until May reaching its height usually In the lat
ter part or in June Those of the Missouri are not
due until stiI later; those OF the Ohio anywhere
from February TO June; those OF New England
with the spring rains that break the ice crusts
On the Pacific Slope those OF the Columbia HlVsr
set In about the middle Of May and last into June.
because OF the very late thaw on the mountains
above But the Sacramento is likely 10 rise ear
Ier In the spring. and Californias Hood time IS
generally March, though this year the SaeraIaento
got on It's rampage in January and again in Feb
ruary. subnerging sixty thousand acres some OK
il the dnes- land in the world But the SAcra-
meuto is a pecuIlar stream, its natural eHannsa
not being big enough 70 carry on over 25 feet OF
Aood water Floods ef our eastern and south
eastern rivers are likely TO occur during any sea