The Birmingham age-herald., 1909-03-21
NICHOLAS WALL
 STREET LETTER Spectators Wait and Watch
 Work on Tariff c )NflDEN1 OF RESULT Leaders Believe That Cutting Will Not Be Drastic When Laboring Men and Others Are Through
 With Congress.
c )NfIDEN1 OF RESULT
By w. G. NICHOLAS.

| l state Of confusion over the tariff 1t had schooled itself to receive with equa- | nimity any bill which the ways and means ! committee might report, and was, there fore, not outwardly alarmed or disturbed over the measure which went into the hopper. When the printed reports of the bin came out in the newspapers the al- most universal acclaim was that the 1 worst had happened that possibly could 1 happen and that from now on the sched 1 ules will be tempered and modified until the power of harm to industrial and bus l mess interests will be expunged there l from. Hardly a dissent from this view was heard.
 It was not only the opinion of Wall street and the New York financial inter- l ests generally, but the wires were bur 1 dened with dispatches of similar import l from every important community in the ] country. Strongly as this theory is held i there is a growing recognition of the fact 1 that there is wide difference between belief and certainty. During the coming ten weeks ar three months in which the l tariff question will be before Congress l and the people, all kind of things are lia- 1 ble to happen and even the wsest of opinion may be knocked gally west by &C., 1 tual occurrences in Washington. It is this uncertainty which is imparting to the stock market timidity which is coming l more and more in evidence. There Is ob l servable reluctance on the part of the big people to step into the breach and give staunch support to prices until mat l ters are more settled.
 The really big and important men of Wall street are prone to deliberation of action. They, more than most other peo- | pie, realize that the market is always | here and that in the long run 1t pays better to wait until situation settles and the clouds roll by before jumping -Fs. | ulation. Last year was an exception to this rule, but then last year witnessed the most amazing speculative campaign ever l known in history-a campaign undertaken by the greatest giants of the financial world and pulled through regardless of conditions.
 Every banking house and operator of any account as well has his special lines of information from Washington just as | complete in it's way as the manufacturers and merchants. For the next several
 weeks the stock market will be very largely governed by the news 1t gets
 from the national capitol. The import
 ance of this news will depend more on clearness of understanding as to the general situation than upon any special
 ized reports, unless exception be made
 of those relating to iron and steel sched- ules coal, hides and possibly two or three other features. The general un-
 derstanding here is that the noisy can
 nonading and clash of battles will be d.
 rected against the iron and steel interests,
 and particularly against the Steel Cor | poration, and that while this Is being
 done the other interests will do the best
 they can to keep out of the lime light.
 Thus while the attention of thc world is being centered upon the quarter in which 2 the most noise is being made, the real ' work of general revision will be allowed , to proceed quietly and in fairly good or
 der in the background. Everybody except the iron and steel people are quite will ing that the middle schedules should hold the middle of the stage and bear the
 brunt of revision assault.
 , It Is also the understanding that the labor organizations are to do the most
 of the drum locating and fusilading for
 voting effect on congressman. The gos- pei is to be preached from every house.
 top and from every cross-road that labor
 must suffer more than any other interest
 by serious reduction in duties and that 1t
 behooves them in self-protection to get
 out and yell against cutting in the rates.
 That they will do effective work in this direction Is already evident and the ! prophecy is heard that before many weeks
 go by millions of names of wage earners
 will go into Washington in protest against undue cutting and slcng.
 The magnitude and force of the ap- preaching campaign against wholesale revision Is probably appreciated here even
 more than in Washington. The view is
 something better from longer perspec-
 tive than close to the scene of action.
 Likewise, 1t is possible to observe more
 clearly the fine moves of the game from
 a distance than from a front seat under
 the orchestra. A prolongation of busi-
 ness inactivity and unemployment for
 wage earners will make 1t very much
 harder for the earnest revisionists.
 It Is upon the probable effect of that sort of campaign that Wall street is bas-
 ing its judgment as to the ultimate harm lessness of the bill when 1t finally comes
 from Congress- The power of the busi-
 ness interests acting in combination with
 millions of working men either out of
 employment or working on short time
 and at reduced wages, is a force which it
 is felt Congress will have difficulty in resisting
 The present disposition in the stock
 market is to hold off for while. There is danger, however, that this spirit of aloofness may develop into restlessness and then weakness A dull market is likely to be a forerunner of break in | prices as an advance. There are indica- tions that the symptoms of feverishness now seen are attended by more or less liquidation of securities. At the same time they are generating @ feeling of bear1ShneSS good sized short interest exists in some of the favorite stocks and 1t must be admitted that in some cases these shorts have been severely punished on the recent rally from the low levels es- tabished a couple of weeks ago.
 This has been notably true with regard to Reading, the copper stocks, Steel com mon, the Harrimans and Chesapeake and Ohio The losses inflicted upon this ele- ment do not seem to have converted it, i however. punishment, are just stubborn in their opinions as before and contend stoutly that general business conditions not only do not warrant higher prices than those i now prevailing, but portend certain de- i clines. They are supported in this view | by reports of railroad earnings and of 1 trade in general. The stout-hearted bulls | who have the money are not in the least i discouraged over the apathy everywhere l apparent, but their patience Is none the i less taxed by the delay in business. l Where they have the money they are | buying few more stocks now and then l just as testimony in their faith in the l ultimate future
 l The conviction finds voice in all healthy | quarters that the year will go out with a great boom under headway. Faith of that sort is what gives confidence to l holders and imparts to them a spirit of | resignation grounded on solid hopeful | ness and patriotic certainty that event. 1 ually all will be we'll. People you talk to l as to the immediate future of the market l say In nine times out of ten that what | ever livening up there may be to trading, the probabilities are that it foreshadows 1 break in prices rather than a rise This ard ,xxr1,a ic xa1xr