Norwich bulletin., 1909-05-29

DtdtC6 (Alt1l ~ tues IlOL Cldlln LO PACOAC~ local conditions" Yet local condi- tions" are the only conditions which in the least degree interest people in any locality. What on earth does the farmer of Lebanon or Woodstock care, this May morning, about the general barometric curves covering the New England forecasting district? What he wants to know is whether It IS likely to be fair weather or foul in Lebanon and Woodstock, so he can plan his work. And, if what happens in Lebanon and Woodstock is anything like what happens in my neck O woods, the general forecast for New England and eastern New York IS not half es apt to. be right, in those towns, as his own unscientific guess, made at a. m. from the feel of the wind" and the look of the sky"
 The disastrously wrong prediction issued March Sd for President Taft's inauguration day is fresh in all minds. The forecast was that March 4th would be "clear and colder at Wash ington. What really happened was the worst snow and slush storm of the year. It is recalled that the chief of the bureau, the day before McKin- ley's second inauguration, said he would stake his reputation that in auguration day would be flair and pleasant" It rained. causing several deaths of people who, trusting the forecast, had made inadequate prep aration for the storm. The forecast for the great Galveston disaster of September, 1900, was high northeast winds" The bureaus own definition of "high winds" Is that the phrase means a velocity of from 30 to 40 miles an hour; something not unusual and hardly suggestive Of the hurricane rx-bf fo1 CD a dred miles an hour that no wind gauge was left to tell it's actual speed. April 25 of last year Mobile got a furious hailstorm. The fore cast was partly cloudy, possible local showers, and cooler" Two days later a hurricane did much damage at Mem phis. The forecast was flair and same spring. the local forecast for Omaha was probably showers to- night" What happened was a storm which wrecked two villages, did S100,- 900 damage. and killed fourteen peo- pie. Etc, etc.
 The worst Of 1t all is that the wealth CT people seem to be perfectly satis- fled with the way they are blundering along take great credit for every cor rect prediction they make; ignore all mistakes until confronted with them, and then evade or batter with the facts. For instance, the bureau ac- tually claimed credit, on it's Thigh winds" forecast, for having predicted the Galveston cyclone. Yet for many years, at that season of the year, it had, almost every week, predicted storms in similar language, none of which had done any damage and nine tenths of which had never material ized at all. If credit is due it once, then bundering must be admitted the nine other times. Another little trick is the definition of fair" If it driz- zles all day but the fall amounts to calls a prediction of fair" verified. On the other hand. if it is clear all day but for sprinkle of a dozen drops near midnight, the bureau asserts that it's forecast of rain" has been full filed. This seems very much like try ing to be on both sides the fence at the same time.
 The cost of the weather bureau for the present year is somewhat oyer S1,660, 900. Reckoning the population of the United States at 90.000 GOO, and the average family at five persons, this makes 1S,000,000 families, each of which pays about nine cents a year to maintain the weather bureau. This lGA iluEtf u DC SuI6-lAE UTlEE OI two pounds of nails or two loaves of bread or couple of cigars. But, for one. I'd gladly swap all the value I've gotten for the fast ten years from it's predictions, and all I'm likely to get for the rest of 1909 for a single cigar or one good, straight, new ten-penny naill
 Perhaps the trouble is that we aren't spending enough. Perhaps if, instead of eight forecasting districts there were eighty-perhaps if, instead of 200 meteorological stations there were 2,0eo perhaps if, instead of 725 observers there were 7,250-perhaps if, instead Of spending $1,660,000 a year we spent S1e.600,O ,O00-then, perhaps, we might get a service which would be able to include local conditions" and to fur nish local forecasts which would come true three times out of four Such service would be better worth sixteen millions than the present service is worth sixteen hundred thousand. At least it would be to this particular dirt-digger and to all the other dirt diggers in his neighborhood with whom he has talked about the present simply ridiculous predictions"
 THE FARMER.