New-York tribune., 1909-05-10
1gOvEy AND BUSINESS.

rHe future Of the coJIntry's industries On an ac-
rive sreruTati9r quotations for railway and in-
dus-riaI shares made new high records for the
year last week. the movement attracting he.aVy
trading for the account Of persons who operate
on borrowed money. though the transactions Of
this character in the greater number Of cases
apparently were backed by substantial margins.
The extent OF the rise, however, and the evil
dence Of quiet distribution by interests who had
been large holders Of speculative lines for many
weeks suggested to conservative observers the
probability Of the development Of sharp reac-
tions. especially in stocks which reached level
wholly out Of proportion TO their income yield
General conditions do not warrant the expecta-
ton Of the readtustment Of values to a perma-
nentIy lower range, but speculation IS proceed
ing in a manner that foreshadows losses 10
operators who buy at high figures in the conf
dent hope Of winning great fortunes on small
margins The best indication Of the improve
ment that has taken place IN business and
finance is found in the steady demand for rail-
way mortgage issues, which are being absorbed
in large amounts by individuals and institutions
for investment purposes IN the month OF April
total dealings in bonds amounted in par value 70
more than S139,OOOOOO. against SS0,O00.O0o in
the same time in 1905 while 50 far in May sales
have been far in excess of tke corresponding
period a year ago.
average OF 124S5 against 123 40 in the preced-
ing week. and the chief iudUstrials at 1888
advance Of 4-21, the progress Of the latter group
rejecting the distinct gain reported in the coun-
try's industrial activities. The supply Of money
is large enough for current necessities Of trade
and speculation, but a slightly frmer tendency
in time funds lends strength TO the belief that
the low levels Of the year have been recorded,
and that in the balance of 1909 higher prices
will he <ed byyf ha mi : sri
ket for loans is not expected before the crop de-
mands develop in the late summer and early
fall. Abnormally cheap quotations for money
cannot continue Indefinitely. Bank loans at
present are not far from the largest ever re-
ported while reserves above legal requirements
are relatively low. Foreign exchange conditions
doubtless will lead to further shipments of gold.
Of which the country has exported since the first
Of the year more than S4OGOOOO0 due to our
faulty currency system and large imports OF
merchandise at time of falling exports And
in addition to the prospect Of an additional
outgo of the metal as an influence on rates for
accommodation the emission of securities
should not be lost sight of as a factor tending
to bring about better prices for the lender. The
mercantile inquiry for money is more active.
Measured by bank clearings, railroad earnings
and the number of commercial failures indus
trial ,1ffairs throughout the United States are
now IldhiIlS DSlleT progress toward normal con-
ditions than at any time since the period Of re-
covery set in. Outside New York. bank clearings
last week were 10 per cent larger than in the
same time last year and "a per cent better than
in 1906 and in New York "a per cent in excess
of 1908 and about / per cent larger than in
1906, the latter period. it may be recalled be
ing time of great business activity. In addi-
ton to substantial gains in transportation re-
ceipts. the railroads present further evidence of
expanding traffic in the reduction OF idle cars
which for all companies amounted TO Il :}:}5 III
the last two weeks, the number of not in
use being the smallest since November,
1908. Sentiment in trade circles is cheerful and
confident, and in all quarters # is believed that
with tariff revision out Of the way the last OBJ
stacle to complete resumption of active opera
tions in our various lines of industry will be re-
moved. There is a better feeling regarding the
immediate future of iron, steel and copper,
based on an actual increase in orders from con-
sumers and on frmer prices, the improvement
in steel being shown in the current operations
of the United States Steel Corporation. which
are on a basis of approximately 81 per cent OF
normal, the highest average reported since the
panic of October 1907. The demand for pig
iron is heavy and sales of copper at higher quo
tations are increasing.
In drygoods conditions in the primary and sec
ondary markets remain quiet. Prices are firm
in cotton goods as consequence of the strength
in the raw product and from current indications
the hope of lower quotations is not well founded
The market is intrinsicaIly strong. and greater
activity is looked for with the advent Of warmer
weather and the end Of tariff discussion, while
in the general retail trade for all classes OF
goods no complaint IS heard from merchants re
garding the character and volume OF current
business. That the retailers are doing we'll is
indicated by the amount of duplicate orders
ceived by the wholesalers. Speculation in cot
ton futures is modera tely active. but prices are
irregular with, however, a strong tone, based
in great part on the crop outlook, which at the
moment is not favorable. The mills not
active buyers. for the good reason that they
have on hand large stocks, accumulated when
prices were lower, but the export trade shows
Improvement Unprecedented buying marks the
course Of the wool market.
Domestic wheat markets again are higher.
prices last week advancing to the best level Of
the season on aggressive operations by the Chi
cago Board Of Trade speculators. AS a rule. de-
velopments affecting quotations were bullish.
adverse weather reports. light Western receipts
and government figures Of crop conditions as of
Nav / encouraging active buying though in
some circles it was thought the adverse feat
,res in the situation had been more than dis
counted BY the rise in prices Flour naturally
responded to the advance in wheat but also
was affected bv the light available stocks. which
vera smaller than ever recorded at this time of
the year. winter wheat -four being especially
scarce as a consequence Of the shutting down
Of mills that either were unable 10 secure the
wheat or unwilling 10 pay the high price de-
unanded The hide market is exceptionally
strong. and leather Is up in sympathy, with bet