Bisbee daily review., 1909-01-31
EXAGGERATED
 ESTIMATE IF
 COPPERSTOCKS
Walker Says Surplus Amounts To No More Than Two Months Production-Bear- ish Reports Affect Stocks.
Cwalker,s Weekly Letter.l

| tWalker's Weekly LetterD
 The tone of the copper market Is a trifle weaker. However, lake and elecrolytic are still being held by producers at 14&s and 145@ cents, re- spectively. I understand that some small lots have been sold at fraction ally lower prices. the sellers being spectators and small dealers. Con sumers are waiting for the market to adjust itself. and many of them be lieye that they will be able to buy a little later on at lower prices. The domestic demand is disappointing. This is due 10 hesitancy in many lines of business. resulting from the con templated resivion of the tarsf. As soon as a schedule of tariff changes is presented to congress a revival m general business should begin and start the wheels turning with acceL erated speed in many lines where cop per is largely used.
 The financial and commercial press Is almost unanimously beaTisn on tie copper situation. Most absurd fig ures are being presented as estimates lof the surplus accumulated during the past year or two. One of these estimates places the amount of sur pils copper at more than 60O. .00O,OO0 pounds, which is equal to five months lprCGHction. Although these figures are extremely misleading, there is a ground upon which a plausible argu- ment could be presented to sustain them. To Illustrate, it is probable that the actual surplus stocks ready for market the world over approxi- mate 200.000,a00 pounds, and possibly 250,000,000 pounds. If one adds to this the amOUat oJ copper in the
 aBds Cf the rein rs and 'n tra~s't the amount would approximate 600,- 100000 pounds. As a matter of act nal fact. however, the output of the electrOlytjc refineries of the world amounts to about 11o o00.0 .000 pounds monthly As nearly three months tune IS consumed by the transporter ten cf this copper from the various snr5ltsrs to the refi1eries and in re-
 lining and casting it into shapes and delivering it to consumers. this two and a half to three months output may t1ccretically De figured as eZ- isting surplus if the price Of copper were five times what it is now, how ever. there would be just as muca
 
 able for immediate Ggiiyerg. The Iactual surplus. therefore. Is the amount which is ready for consump- tiou. and this certainly cannot greatly exceed 2OO,O09.0G0 pounds. which Is ! Considerably less than two months iproduction. Such a surplus does not lreflect an unhealthy condition Of tle trade
 As I stated week ago. tba metal situation is in very much better shape than Is generally believed Few pro . ducers are carrying as much as one months output. For illustration, one
 leading Lake Superior producer, which has been holding it's price at II 1-S Icents for several months past, has
 sold all of its January, February and mere than 90 per cent of it's March copper. Other companies which have sold out almost equally far in ad
 vance could be enumerated. If the s.tuation had been weak and un-
 healthy. such sales could not possibly have been made.
 It is commonly argued that inaE-
 much as the volGmc of general busi-
 ness is not over Ca 10 70 per cent of
 what 1t was ii 1906, while the prt-
 duction of copper is to 1p per cent greater stFan it was two years ago, at least 70 per cent of the present output Of the mines must be going
 into surplus stocks. < strong argu-
 ment. and everybody win agree until lnc remembers that copper has q
 worldwide market. while the e. to a per cent volume of business applies tO
 this country alone. There was a very
 considerable increase in the foreign consumption Of copper last year, an iunprecedentedly large proportion Of the American production going abroad. Exports nave continued heavy lup to the present time. This country ! lprcduces tWo-tl1irds of the worlds D copper. and normally consumes about
 60 per cent Of the worlds output. Last year something like . per cent
 Of the worlds production was dispos- ed of in foreign markets. leaving only about 25 per cent to be consumed Tn the United States. These facts
 are presented in round numbers, as
 tley cannot be given in pounds and . tons w'tl exact accuracy. However, they win be fouud approX,-nately cor rect. ! feel very sure that there is , no large surplus in existence, and AilON tustI tLis laGN VIII De -ll.atdils recognized after confidence return !. and consumers resume buying. l feel 2 reasonably confident that copper will ! seil above 16 cents per pound before - ii sells below ff cents.
 The circulation of extremely bear ish and misleading stGtemenrs con 4 ccrr -ng the conditions of tlc meta 2 market caused some holders oI cop i per stccks to press them fer sale or 2 dull and narrow market this week ' and decline in prices resulted E Further selling has been encouraged F by ;he decline. and at the present b writing it looks as if number o tllc best ccppers might go somewhat
 cwer. Viewed from speculative
 standpoint. it is an unfortunate fac F. that a few Of toe coppors are selling s too high. and the declinS in these n particular stocks now under way i' { having a tendency to depress others e The perIcd of readjcstmeDt may oc q cupy several weeks. but I am yer. sure that a great many of those tra