Los Angeles herald., 1909-11-02
The Thirteenth Census
III--Ta bulating the Returns
BY FREDERIC j. HAsKINs

digest and publish the returns that IL
would be time for another census to
be taken before the one In hand could
be completed,
Electricity has solved the problems Of
digesting the returns that come In from
the eleventh census all returns were
tabulated by hand; and a long, tedious
task Ii was. In 1890 the electrical tabu-
lating machinery came into use. having
been invented by former employe of
the census That this machinery meant
much is apparent from statement of
Director Merriam of the twelfth census,
in which he said: Electric tabulation
has proved a boon to the census office.
1t need only be said that IL, at the
twelfth census, the three tallies of aga
and sex. nativity and occupation had
been by hand it is estimated that 1t
would have required the time of a hum
dred clerks for seven years, eleven
months and five days" The Secretary
of the department of commerce. and
labor stated in his annual report for
1904 that the electrical machinery does
the work in one-tenth the time and at
one-third the cost of hand work, with
greater degree of accuracy. II was
estimated that at least $5,C00000 was
saved by the government through the
use OF electrical tabulating machinery.
But the concern which had this ma
chinery for sale or rent had no COM
petition, and the prices were put up 80
high that the then director of the cen
sus, Mr. North, considered them exor-
bitant Mr. North concluded TO employ
corps of experts to invent machinery
for the work, and congress appropriate
ed $1,000 for that purpose. The re-
suit Is that new machinery win be used
In tabulating the thirteenth census,
and Director Durand thinks 1t will
save a half million dollars over the
machinery of the twelfth census. The
government had paid quarters of
million dollars for the rental of the
machines, and the company which sup
Piled them had paid dividends. accord
ing TO Director North, of as much as
100 per cent.
II is interesting to note how this ma
chinery win do the work of the hui
man hand and the human mind. First,
symbols are prepared which represent
the various items of data as extracted
from the schedules. Editors then take
the schedules and insert the symbols
over the items in the various columns
and form divisions. A separate card is
devoted to each person in the United
States, on these cards the facts relat-
ing to sex, race, age, birthplace and
other subjects of inquiry will be indi-
Gated by punching holes through the
symbols corresponding to those on the
schedule.
The punching machine by which
these holes are punched differs radi-
cally from the ones used in previous
cvnsuses, and il Is believed that 1t will
not only work more rapidly, but will
tend to reduce the number of errors
made by the operator. After the cards
are punched they are fed into the tab
| IL aahfx.a xrlfnh fnaI M
tabulates the result Wherever there
is a hole in a card an electrical con-
! nection ia established by blunt
needle passing through the hole into
| a cup of mercury, ana the fact Is
registered. On the machines previously
used there was a series of dials, and II
was necessary to transcribe the results
| by hand This often resulted in errors
and as a rather slow and uHsatistac-
tory process. With the new machines
this operation Is entirely avoided, as
they automatically print the total re-
suits for each unit Of area, district
township, ward. city, county or state
With the new machine, in which the
power is applied by electricity instead
of by the hand OF the operator. the
average clerk can punch 1000 cards a
day. The tabulating machine will
, make an average of $4,000 fluctuations
every eight hours. 1t will require SOC
punching machines and 100 tabuiators
| to do the work of the thirteenth CEN
sus These machines will be manufac-
tured for the government. and viii be
kept for the work OF the permanent
census and the decennial censuses
which follow.
With a greater accuracy In the field
than ever before has been possible,
with greater accuracy In punching
the cards that will tell the story. and
with greater accuracy in tabulating
the returns as shown by the punched
cards, it Is safe to say that the mar
| gin of error In the Thirteenth census
will approximate the irreducible mini
mum. And yet those who are RESPONSE
/ BILE for ii are not willing to permit the
public to assume that the census Will
be accurate down to the dollar and the
cent. They will say frankly that
while the accuracy of their figures Is
sufficient for all fair use of statistics,
no one is justified in using them as
being exactly correct in every instance;
that while the margin of error Is not
large enough to vltiate their value in
any important particular, they are not
! sufficiently accurate to warrant the
| assumption that they contain no err
rors at all. For instance, Mr.. purand
points out that the recent census OF
manufactures shows the value of the
products to be $12.05S,562,917, and that
/ the slightest consideration will show
that those figures might miss the mark
of such a huge total by tens OF mill
lions of dollars and still not injure
the statistical value of the data. He
purposes to boil down the error to the
! lowest possible point and then express
| his totals in round numbers.
1t will require 100000 cards to tell
the story Of the population schedules
a stack ten miles high. Each of these
will be passed through the tabulating
machines six times, so that more than
half a billion electrical connections
will be made and registered In tabulat-
| ing the population.
1t is expected that despite the in
creased work represented in the TAX
! ing of the thirteenth census, as COM
! pared with previous censuses, the re-
suits will be announced earlier than
ever before The law provides that
| the thirteenth census force must have
completed it's labors by June 80, 1912,
even down to the publication of the
| last volume of statistics. When the
results are placed at last in the hands
/ of the people there will be a new rea-
son for appreciation. Hitherto the de-
cennial census reports have taken up
almost as much room in a library as
| Or. Eliot's famous section of linear
| literature Director Durand will try
| I'd scale the size down considerably.
| he will have q fine example TO guide
MIN. The Federal Blue Book used to
| he Y4.hI;ahad In two VollImes zach 0f