Los Angeles herald., 1909-11-03
THE THIR TEENTH CENSUS
lV-Some Probable Results
: By Frederic j Haskin

szzaT is probable that the thir-
ikd M teenth census will credit the
k Hs United States, exclusive of the
H. al Philippines, with a population
M of 90,000.000. an increase OF
4g#s 14,000000 over the record OF
1900. No one may venture,
with confidence. to predict the results
of a census which must take into ac-
count the many marvellous changes OF
the first decade of the twentieth CEN
tury, yet so closely do certain ten
denotes of growth follow defined rules
that many of the important showIngs
may be discounted. For instance, In
1899, Mulhall, the eminent English
statistician, made prediction OF the
probable results of the American census
of 1890. The final results differed but
a few thousands from Mulhalrs esti-
mate, the difference being less than
per cent.
Although 100000 inhabitants have
been added to our population In the
past ten years, 1t is relatively smaller
increase than that of the previous ten
years. Statisticians expect to see the
United States continue to grow, but
at a constantly diminishing rate. AS
the country becomes more and more
filled up, the opportunities for the poor
of Europe to better their condition
here will become fewer and fewer. and
Immigration will fall off more and
more with each passing decade. The
result will show in the increased pro-
portion of inhabitants born on Amer
ican soil.
OF course the most interesting re-
suit of the thirteenth census VIII pc
the relative showing of the states IN
the matter of population. VIII they
hold the same relative position In con-
gressional and electoral college repre-
sentation during the next ten years
that they now hold? To the individ-
ual state that is an important question.
And ii means still more than that
Representation in the great national
conventions is fixed by the number OF
senator's and representatives in con-
gress, and thus may party policy ana
the whole course of our future political
| history hang on the results or the
| forthcoming reckoning.
The states may show change In the
| order of precedence as based on popu-
iation. This has happened at every
census, though with decreasing ratio
at the more recent ones. In lSsV
Kansas ranked nineteenth In popuia
| ton, but by 1900 Minnesota, mississippi
J and California had forced II back into
twenty-second place. Wisconsin moved
/ I'm from fourteenth to thirteenth place.
Washington from thirty-fourth 10
4 thirty-thlrd, oregon from thirty -eighth
to thirty-fifth, Georgia from twelfth 10
eleventh. and Maryland from twenty
seventh to twenty-sixth. On the other
hand Wyoming dropped back three
1 notches. virginia two, Vermont four,
Utah three, New Hampshire three. and
| n number of other states one step
| backward each. II is apparent that In
a close political campaign such changes
as these may work wonders, both in
the complexion of the house and the
control of the presidency. 1t Is not
] improbable that several OF these states
will have their representation cut
down by the thirteenth census. Two OF
them. Virginia and Maine. narrowly
escaped such a catastrophe as a result
of the 1900 count.
The returns will probably result In
a remarkable shake-up among the
cities of the country. While this will
mean little or nothing nationally, to
the individual city It seems an i'm
portant proposition, and there are as
many healthy rivalries for position In
the ten-year endurance contests of the
cities as there are In a well-matched
horse race with large number OF
entries. For instance, Akron, Ohio,
holding l09th place In 1890, forged ahead
to eighty-seventh place In 1900. while
Albany, New York, holding twenty
elgntn place IN 1881, sllppeu Dack 10
fortieth place in 1900. Butte, Montana,
jumped from 1859 place to 1888 Clncin-
natl dropped back from eighth to
tenth place. Cleveland hustled up a
bit and landed I'm seventh place from
ninth. Duluth climbed out of ninety
first place into seventy-second. Hous-
ten, Texas, from 110 TO eighty-fifth, and
Los Angeles from fifty-sixth to thirty
sixth. Portland, Oregon. moved up
from sixtieth to forty-second. and Seat
tie from sixty-ninth to forty-eighth.
II was a gruelling race in which only
seventy-fve of the 161 cities of over
rs 600 inhabitants, were able to keep
ahead of the places in which they
started. An equal number fell behind,
and eleven simply held their own.
There will be a driving finish as the
present ten-year race winds up.
There is much room for speculation
as to what the figures will show as to