The Birmingham age-herald., 1909-12-21
FORTUNE KNOCKS
 AT SOUTH'S GATES ligh Prices for Cotton Means
 Great Prosperity A STUDY OF CONDITION If Farmers Can Be Educated to Stand Pat and Not Plant a Large Crop Next Year, Prosperity Will
 Continue.
4 STUDY OF CONDITION

Continue.
 New Orleans, December 20--(Special. .)-- Ever since 1908, when southern specula- tors won their first great success in the fight for high prices agarnst the New York bears by receiving all the cotton in the New York stock on contract and then demanding more. the south has studied cotton market conditions along broader lines. Prior to that time only the higher type of professional trader was in position to ferret out the cause and anticipate tho course of im- portant price movements. NOW many men whose interest in cotton is that Of the business man dependent upon the gen. eral prosperity find themselves in posi- ton to analyze not only cotton crop conditions and the relationship of sup ply to demand, but the drift, significance and advantages to be gained from the south's domination of the worlds raw cotton supply. The monster value of such education and enlig htment is at this time beyond computation and is reaiizable in part only when leading economists and thinkers not allied with the cotton trade come to the front and point the way to greater profits and more general prosperity for all classes of people living in the cotton belt. MT. Gorden s. Orme, a wealthy rice mer- chant of this city. deep thinker. and an usually well informed man, in an ar ticle just prepared for southern publica- ton lays bare many facts worthy of serious consideration. He says:
 Fortune for South.
 It appears to the writer that fortune is at last knocking at the gates of the southern states. and to lot the present situation pass without thorough study by all those of the south, appears to the writer to be nothing short of crim- inai on the part of her press, as well as her intelligent citizens wno have the interests of the section in which they live at heast. Steady high prices for cotton mean more to the south than leg islation could accomplish in the next l0o years.
 Judging from conversations with many of my friends, l myself, while not con- nected in any manner with the cotton business-but always taking an interest in same-Inust be extremely ignorant of the true conditions, or elsa many others are.
 According to MT. Hesters report of last season, the southern mills alone actually consumed 266O,000 bales, regard less of the fact 215 mills, out of a total of 7S6, were, on account of the panic one to two months late in starting. and their present capacity is now estimated at 29O0,O0o. The total consumption fo. all of the United States mills last year being b.0so,ooo; the total consumption of LOCO, or a grand total of 1a,l57,Oo0 bales.
 Monthly Consumption.
 On the first of September, the esti- mated mills stocks carried over in the United States were 4So,00o. The average monthly consumption, last year, in the United States was 421 ,666, and as ths mills at large through the north and many sections of the south can hardly figure on securing new cotton before October, before new supplies actually reach the mills in any quantity. the ap- parent carryover was absolutely noth- ing, which was the reason spot cotton became so short last summer at the tail end or the season and scored such a heavy advance in the face of the largest crop on record. The average monthly consumption last year by foreign mills was 674750. and the apparent carryover by these mills on September 1 was l. 100000. or about six weeks supply
 Now, as matter of fact, before any quantity of cotton can reach the foreign and continental mills, 1t would average at least the middle of October before they could count on getting new supplies, so this apparent carryover by the mills was entirely exhausted before they could receive new cotton.
 At the beginning of last season all bus mess was greatly depressed on account of the panic of the year previous, and & large amount of labor was unemployed, which condition does not exist today; and as the entire world, 80 to speak, is on the crest of prosperity, the masses at large could well afford at present to pay higher prices than last year with less inconvenience. On account of the higher prices of grain in the west and all manufacturers doing a successful busi-
 
 power of the United States Is such that an advance of a small percent on man ufactured goods will have no effect upon the consumption. and, personally, I be- lieve the mills of this country will con sume this year at least 5,000000 bales, re- gardless of prices; but for the sake of argument, let us say the United States mills this year will consume only A. 5000
 Very Short Supply.
 According to Hester's report, December 10, the mills of the United States have taken 1,71 600 bales, and. therefore, have yet to secure 2,773.000 to equal an ex- tremely short supply. We have exported 8, 600 bales, and, therefore, there only remain available for the balance of the world 2,S27,O00, making a total available supply for the world this year 6,122, 900, against their takings last year of S,596- GOO. It must be remembered that this small supply is not to carry the mills until September 1. but the foreign mills from about the middle of October to No- vember 1, and the United States mills from the middle of September to October before new supplies will be available; so it is absolutely necessary on Septem- Der l every season for the mills to show a reasonable carryover.
 These figures are based, of course, upon the governments estimate of the crop. which agrees with the writer's