The Birmingham age-herald., 1909-05-22
BIG COTTON CROP
 IS NOT EXPECTED
Speculative World Believes That Prices Will Advance
DEMAND WILL BE HEAVY
Crop Conditions Are Considered to Be Critical and Believers In Small Crop Are Greatly In Majority
 In All Parts of Country.

New York, May 21.-spinners may not care to continue in cotton. but the spec ulative world does. and prices have fur ther advanced. with May and July the leaders, on the proposition that there is little likelihood that the next crop will reach the required size. If it is 13,000 900 bales it will be regarded as almost a failure. That is how the bulls look at it. Bears assert that even such a crop would be large enough, seeing that the last one was in their opinion nearer 14,000000 bales than the bulls are willing to admit and that a good surplus will be carried over to next season. But the believers in higher prices contend that the consump- ton is likely to be the largest on record or certainly very much larger than the last years takings.
 Texas. they think. has comparatively little moisture in the ground after the winter and spring droutn and that until it has good soaking rains at short in- tervals 1t cannot raise more than 2,75O- GOO bales if it can do that much. Some parts of that state have recently had beneficial rains but the western section is still supposed to need a good soak ing
 Meantime Louisiana and Mississippi have had if anything too much rain. Certainly some portion of the late ad- vance was due to the fact that the delta has had what looked to many like an excessive precipitation. In fact, the whole eastern section of the cotton belt during much of the past 30 days has had rain so frequently as to make it look like a wet May, something supposed to be of bad omen for the crop. Too much rain is supposed to prevent germiuation and to necessitate replanting. Indeed, some contend that higher prices will be due more to adverse conditions in the east ern section of the cotton country than in Texas itself, where they think that the outlook has noticeably improved. But nine out of ten scout the idea that any thing like a bumper crop or even a sat- isfactory crop can be raised under exist ing conditions, keeping in mind the win ter and spring drouth in the southwest and the fact that in any case two big crops are not apt to come together.
 Liverpool's spot market has been active while the spot business in this country has been slow.
 Manchester has reported big demand, especially for China. Meantime, how eV5f, the recelpIS Tn IIlS country continue large, spinners have fought shy of the market and some think there are too many bulls.
 Chicago, Wall street and the south have sold freely. The most orthodox bulls have latterly been looking for a reac- ton and have advised their following t.5 take profits They look for at least "a temporary setback after the recent very rapid advance, and think that the mar ket would thus be put in all the better condition. Bears contend that the bulls are going ahead too fast that they are ignoring the legitimatSI side of the cot ton goods market ipj this country, and the sluggishness irffthe trade of actual cotton in the sJnth. But 1t must be said that rAe dominant sentiment is bullish. Most people look for small or moderSae crop, a big consumption and furtifr and perhaps material rise in prit4 this summer.
 <fhe government report to be issued 0nne 4 is very generally expected to be 'bullish especially as it's data will come down no later than May 25.