New-York tribune., 1909-03-14
POLITICS AND FINANCE
Il TANGLE IN ENGLAND.
lMr. BalfOur Gaining ,Po5cer-The
Outlook for Trade.
Especial BY French Gable to The TrsOune-l

Especial by French Gable 70 The Tr4bunel
I.ondons March 13.-The naval compromise
naturally follows the line Of least resistance.
-Four Dreadnoughts are authorized for this year
instead Of six-econonists have been insisting
upon reduction IN the number-and arrange
ments are sanctioned for four more a year hence
81 the discretion Ct the Admiralty, so that the
two-nation standard be complied with in
1912. If the German programme be carried out,
the Prime Minister'S pledge viii not be repudi
ated and Mr.. McKenna will be enabled &c make
q fair defence when assaulted by the big navy
gang in the Commons The Radicals have Sc
cured d reduction in the Admiralty plans for
the next two years by the four sDreadnoughts,
yet the naval estimates have increased nearly
$4,000 600. when there IS general shrinkage of
revenues and Mr. Lloyd-G George is in despair
over his first budget The naval compromise re-
veals the Prime Minister'S cleverness tao
isician. He has succeeded in keeping the Cabi-
net together when there Is a sharp division of
;opinion. and he is likely to whip in a large
5ority Of supporters in spite of loud threats OF
revolt
When this crisis is averted a more serious one
ssriu arise over the budget, with another chance
for a display of dexterity in larmonizing the
fCabinet and reconcing the opposite sections Of
1.-THE party by a series Of compromises The
iwhgs have been favored in the naval estimates,
fDuI me HaOlcalS VIII nave tfe advantage IN me
budget since David Lloyd-George is their man.
land cannot be upset in his own department,
Fpecially when his popularity has been increased
sby the holiness with which he has vindicated
fhis reputation from the foul scandalmongers
irho have been pursuing him in darkness for
ssnany months
while Mr.. Asquith IS reducing the tacticians
siexterity 10 fine art in the conduct Of the
fsovernment, Mr. Balfour is becoming leader
with the power Of arousing enthusiasm. The
:ssriff reforrners are entirely satisfied with his
last speech on party policy. They assert that
1he Member for West Birmingham himself il
suddenly restored TO health could not have
ifaker stronger ground or spoken with a clearer
tone of personal conviction All traces of hesi-
ration have disappeared. He longer stands
an awe of the Cecil family and IS leading his
.psrty with consistency and energy
The death of H. O. Arnod-Forster. whose
health had never been equal to his intellectual
equipment for public life. leaves the War Office
open for George wyndham in the next Unionist
government He mas been contesting Austen
Chamberlain's claim for succession TO the Treas
'slry- but Bonar Law is marked out by the COM
mon consent Of the tariff reformers the only
competent man for ordering a change in the
fiscal system.
The financial. experts in the Street are fore
casting a long period of easy money. The bank
are so high that a lowering Of the rate viii be
justified. although this action is not probable
until the Balkan question is settled and Mr..
1aoyd-George's policy is announced. A confer
ence Of the powers is now prevented only by the
unconciliatory conduct Of Austria Hungary,
whose Foreign Minister has been successful all
along The line and does not wish to sacrifice the
smallest advantage of position. The powers
have beer forc;bly reminded by Servia that they
alone sanction alteration in the Treaty
of Berlin The conference siopposea by Austria
Hungary and Germany, because those powers
prefer 10 have Turkey occupy strip Of territory
Between Servia and Montenegro, which is with
out value for military defence The two minor
states covet it. and Turkey would probably be
willing to sell it at high price There is
immediate possibility Of a settlement of this
question. nor is there any apparent risk of war
in the Near East if it remains unadjusted this
Sear-
Nobody in the Street expects war anywhere
sn Europe while King Edward lives The un-
certainties of taxation rather than the dread of
foreign complications. cause a depression to
prevent q revival of confidence and q renewal
Of speculation in home or mining securities.
While politicians disputing whether it is
helpful detrimental to British interests to
have the surplus capital invested abroad, it is
going constantly and in increased masses. This
does not promote a revival of trade in the king
dom improvement in business on the Stock
Exchange. TIE Liberal tax levies the date
and result of the general elections and the effect
OF tariff expansion if the Unionists win are the
pnsettlng uncertainties which take the life out
OF every market. The best thing which busi-
ness men here are hoping for is a speedy revi-
sion Of the American tariff. followed BY re-
<fval Of trade across the Atlantic which will
help TO restore buoyaney to the European mar
kets and industries. l. NE