The Washington herald., 1909-03-17
CRISIS In BALKANS
Less THREATENING
Reports OfIneVitable WarNOt
Credited in London.
SERvIA'S DIPLOMACY WINNING
Her Note TO Austria Regarded as "A
Masterpiece of Evasion, Which
Gives No Excuse for Military Re
taIiation-GeneraI Sentiment Out
side of England Very PessImistic.

London, March l6-NIost OF the tele-
grams tonight from Vienna and ST
Petersburg are couched in terms of the
most extreme pessimism. They seem 70
regard war as all but inevitable.
Nevertheless. information which was
CLEANED to-day from the highest diplo-
matte sources. Austrian. Servian. Rus
sian, and British, enables the writer 70
affirm mis- confident belief that peace will
not be broken. This view is also held
in the best-informed financial circles.
with the result that when the gloomiest
dispatches were arriving this afternoon
and closed strong.
The reason for this improvement lies in
the fact that Servia's next move VIII
probably be such as win disarm Aus
trian aggTessiveness. and leave Austria
no choice but 70 pursue negotiations
peacefully. The Servian government cal
cUIated correctly that its note yesterday
would not justify Austria in taking inn
mediately the extreme step Of sending an
ultimatum.
Count Aehrenthal, the Austrian minis
ter of foreign affairs. has met his match
in NJ. Milovanovich the Servian foreign
minister. as a diplomatic duelist
A MasterIy Evasion.
Thee latter's note was a masterpiece OF
evasion, but it was also a document
which gave no excuse for military re-
taIiatiOn. Moreover. It afforded Servia
another opportunity for putting her case
81 -,5l,- before 10 --o-Ta ,-a -Lf- e. .Er
sole object OF the present Servian policy.
Count Won Aehrenthal Will now put fur
ther diplomatic pressure upon Servia TO
declare more specifically her peaceful in
tentions. and Servia. I'm response. will
yield to what is virtually force majeure-
She will make this clear IN such terms as
she hopes VIII force the powers 10 con-
sent 20 a European conference. That
would end the crisis for the present at
least.
Meantime to-day's warlike reports in
clude the following.
Austria will send her reply within forty
eight hours. All the powers viii stimuli
taneously deliver notes Of warning at
Belgrade. Austria has ordered the mObin-
zation Of 1900 more men.
The telegraph Offices throughout the
country are 10 be kept open all night.
prepared 10 receive orders for further
mobilization. Austria intends 10 occupy
Belgrade next week. unless Servia Yields
ia the meantime She expects 20 do this
without fighting, by means or a great
massing Of men and guns, which would
make resistance suicidal.
SensOn No Drawback.
1t is Of some Importance in tIis con-
nection 20 call attention 20 a wide
spread misaDpTehensiOn in regard 70
physical fact Of the situation Il IS the
general idea that war In the Balkans is
impossible until the snow melts This
is untrue as regards the hOstfities
Servia and Montenegro would carry on
with such an enemy as Austria. They
could do Austria far greater harm now
than a month hence. when large armies
would become mobile
II Servia really intended 20 fight she
would have begun operations before this.
and Austria, powerful as she is. would
have had a bad time Of IL against the
native troops for some time 70 come. The
real Servian aim has been 10 force the
worlds attention upon the crisis in her
destinies. and she has certainly succeeded
There remains always the danger OF ac-
cidents turning such delicate situations
into war, and that peril to-day is a very
real one.