The Washington times., 1909-10-31
TO AVOID
CERTIF ICATE ISSUE
Secretary MacVeagh, How
ever, at Sea on
Tariff.
BY JOHN SNURE.

~ jOAAN N2AzO
Treasury officials are still unable to !
say where they are at with respect /
to the probable income Of the Govern |
ment under the new tariff law. The re-
suit is that they are at sea as to the !
probable revenues and the probable de |
felt, and there is a condition of things |
which is giving them no little worry /
and anxiety
One Of the possibilities is that Secre- |
tary MacVeagh wiz be compelled TO /
issue certificates of Indebtedness before !
the meeting of Congress. He hopes to |
avoid this and may be able to do so }
II he can, he win wit until Congress |
meets and then will take steps for a |
Panama bond issue, after legislation has |
/ been had to equalize the tax OBJ circu- |
lation based on > per cent bonds and |
per cents.
To Decide On Issue.
It is said, however. that on Mr. Mac. |
Neagh's return to Washington early this |
month he will give consideration to the |
question OF whether an issue of eertia- !
Gates will be needed. The total balance /
in the general fund of the Treasury Is |
low. being about $50, OO00 COO. The working |
balance is over 81 100000, which is not
heavy, but sufficient 90 enable the
Treasury 10 run along without difficulty.
If 1t keeps up to its present figure, there
Will be no issue Of certificates.
But the fact which is giving the
Treasury officials more concern than
this question Of the state of the Treas
ury just now, is that experts are be-
ginning to predict a heavy continuous
deficit every year, unless some addi-
tionaI ways are found of raising reve-
nue.
This deficit is estimated at over $780,
| coo. 900 II looks now as if this fiscal
year. which viii end next June, would
experience a heavy deficit Of s1o0 0g0,000. |
/ and perhaps more. Some put 1t higher
than that
| No good reason exists for thinking
the receipts will be heavier next year
than they are this, or that the expendi-
/ lures are going to be lower. Such cuts
as have been made in the estimates will
probably be more than overcome by ap-
propriations in other directions.
Expectations Fail
/ II was expected that the customs Off
Gals would be able by this time TO say
pretty clearly what the probable income
on an average would be under the new
! tariff law. But Chairman Tawney, Of
! the Appropriations Committee. mas been
making inquiries among Treasury Of
hciaIs. and he has found they are not
able vet TO say what the customs reve-
/ Eue is likely TO be. The reason for this
/ is that importattons since the beginning
I OF the fiscal year have not been normal.
! A great deal Of importation for the pur-
pose Of escaping higher duties has DC
! CURED. Such importations were fire.
uuent before the new law went into
/ effect.
/ Then. the abrogation OF the French,
Swiss, and Bulgarian agreements, which
/ expire with the end Of October. has re-
suited in many shipments being rushed
in to avoid payment Of higher duty
| This is especially true of French wines
| and champagnes. And it is TO be ex-
/ pected that the same thing vii. be true
/ in the several months that will elapse
! before the German agreement expires.
| and the agreements with number of
Treasury officials say, therefore.
/ that IL viii be several months prob
/ ably before fmDortatfons settle down
/ to the normal level and they can
/ gauge the average income from Gus
! toms. But this income has probably
been heavier in the early part Of the
1 fiscal year which has thus far elapsed
/ than II viii be hereafter, OV will be
/ on the average.
Revenues Will Fall Short.
/ This makes it seem likely that the
! revenues are going TO fall very far
/ short Of meeting the expenditures
when things settle down to the normal
/ level October ends with a deficit of
| over $4,000, 600, considering all re-
ceipts and disbursements. or, if only
ordinary receipts and disbursements
/ are considered the deficit for the fiscal
year thus far is s25,7sO,574. The cor
responding figure at this time last |
year was about $38. OOe,O 900.
Swelling expenditures have been re- |
sponsibIe for the heavy deficit which |
exists this fiscal year. The chickens |
of extravagant appropriations are |
coming home to rOOst- The eXpendi-
lures thus far in the fiscal year have
| been about $16,00G,0O0 heavier than /
they were for the correspoudfnar
period a year ago. The receipts have 1
been about $4,000. 600 heavier.
The Treasury in October ran behind /
on ordinary TeCeiptS and expenditures /
to the extent Of s4,646.462. If all re- |
il ran behind S7,S64,7O5. If this We're /
to be taken as monthly average |
through the year the deficit at the end /
of next June would be between 500 |
! 600, 600 and 100000, 600.
OF course, the corporation tax will
give some relief 10 the Treasury Just 1
how much, none can say. The income /
from this Is variously estimated 1t is /
however, a prGcariOus income for the
reason the corporation tax win be al
he earliest opening attacked and knock
ed out If possible.
Therefore, the developments the next
few months with respect 10 customs re- !
Ceipts, as well as TIE tendency Of Con
gresS with respect 20 holding down an
preparations The coming session, will be |
of the utmost moment.