New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1909-09-27
FINANCIAL MARKETS
STOCKS IRREGULAR.
Bull Increment Lays, and Lo0cer
Prices Looked For-MOnetdry
Conditions.

- ,ba Is~t Ureer, disclosed the fact that there
was no important public demand lor secul4 t.oo'
/ and that the opposition TO advancing Pl'Oo 80
stronger than at any time in many MeeH ss
T1orbtlass the absence of an active outside m
ouirv ENCOURAGED the realization OF pronts III
bull quarters and attracted selling pressure rom
the room element, while it compelieu Tue ldi So
speculative interests, who had 'oeeh co-ii '.
upon higher quotations. not only 10 revise Inel
oninions regarsing the immediate future OF the
market but also led them TO reduce IhelI Hhes'
which passed into the hands Of bankers VINO can
afford 70 carry stocks through peElod y! ms"
money rates and declining Stock EXCHANGE
values The general tendency OF prices was Il.
the direction OF lower level in the pest part oL
the week. Technical conditions were Strength
ened by the movement, and the strain tnaI oCn-
erwise might have been exerted upon the lOa!'
market was avoided. Stringency IN money VIII
he preventAd bv liouidation in securities and a
few weeks Of quiet speculation. but the OUTLOOK
nevertheless. favors the development OF more
advanced range of loan quotations. win the
accumulation Of stocks all declines by cap
italists who are more concerned with the main
tenance Of stable conditions in the financial COM
munity than the gathering in OF immediate
profits There is no reason TO worry over the
future of the stock market from the pull point
Of view if reckless speculation is checked at THIS
time as all indications in the industrial world
foreshadow a gradual increase in the intrinsic
worth Of American investment issues, but there
are many good reasons why people who attempt
10 bring about a furious bull movement at the
present time may lose their money in their eff
forts 70 ACQUIRE sudden wealth. The spirit OF
conservatism that was noted in the stock market
last week was the most important development
OF that period. though foolish advocates OF ad-
vancng prices. at a time when the money needs
OF the business community showed decided evil
dence of becoming urgent, apparently were
unable TO appreciate the necessity for caution in
operations on the bull side of speculation
The money markets Of the world have been
through a long time of cheap rates. Current in
dications suggest that this period is at an end.
a reflection of which is found in the advance by
the Imperial Bank of Germany in Its discount
rate. in the advance of Industrial awaken
ing abroad in the increased demand at London
for gold from other nations and in the greater
activity in the money market in the United
States. Domestic exchange is moving against
New York. owing to the interior demands for
funds in connection with the crop movements
and general trade expansion. Quito town
money rates are well above those prevailing Mt
this centre. and though there are some people
who continue 10 assert, in the face of growing
interior inquiry for money here, that the West
end South will be able TO finance their needs
without reducing balances at this point all signs
suggest an increased flow of currency from the
East in the course OF the next few weeks. on
their operations with the interior the local banks
lost last week 100000, while they also lost
on their transactions with the Sub-Treasury.
and as a consequence Of all changes in bank
items the actual reserve of the Clearing House
institutions was reduced to $l.675 500. which
compares with an average reserve Of s50039.550
at this time a year ago and $5646.575 in 1907.
The position OF the banks on the eve of the
marketing Of one Of the heaviest crop yields in
the history OF the country. with trade and In
dustry rapidly approaching normal activity.
does not promise easy money throughout the fall
months The present margin for loan expansion
| Is small, and prevailing quotations for
funds unquestionably out of line with the
situation. Our ability to draw money from
abroad is impaired by the fact that our foreign
trade balance is at the lowest point In twelve
years The fiscal year ended June 80 showed
an excess Of exports Of merchandise TO the
value OF only 100000. against average of
s5G0000,000 for the five years preceding. while
since June there has been an excess of i'm
ports over exports of more than $l5.000O0O.
with no indications of the resumption OF ex-
ports a large scale until later in the season.
when the effects Of growing industrial activity
abroad will be reflected in better demand IN
Europe for American goods. 1t is estimated
that this country owes Europe more than $780,
100000 direct loan account and II money
tightens AT the foreign capitals. as it promises
to do, the ability OF the stock market spectators
to secure foreign loans will be materially les
sened- Indeed the next thing In order should
| be disposition at London 10 make further
| extensions here
II is impossible to be bearish on the business
| outlook, and if over-speculation does not de-
Tslop there will be occasion for uneasiness
| over monetary conditions. Our poor foreign
trade situation in respect to exports eventually
! viii be remedied, and in the time il is not
| likely that our actual credit will suffer. Tra
J prospects favor real currency reform in the
course of the next two years, and though the
actual establishment in this country of a scien-
tific currency system may appear long way off
the very fact that movement is underway to
bring about desirable legislation of this charac-
ter will tend TO strengthen confidence at home
| and abroad in the ultimate outcome of our fiscal
affairs. Conditions in the industrial world are
| moving along In a most satisfactory manner.
| Railroad earnings are increasing bank clearings
are expanding and the iron and steel trade prac-
tically is back to a normal basis of production.
/ Railroad earnings throughout the country show
encouraging gains over corresponding periods a
| year ago. and are not far under the records re-
ported in 1907, when railway traffic was ex-
| ceedingly heavy. All the trunk lines report
growing transportation receipts while the traffic
| is moving at a rate that foreshadoyvs period
! Of record breaking railroad business. in which
| the movement Of grain promises to be an i'm
portant factor Large crops have been made
! for wheat. and a corn harvest above the normal
] is promised. The farmers will receive a fair
| price for their products and the railroads will
benefit not only from the carrying OF grain to
market. but also from the return movemsnt OF
merchandise which the agricultural community
viii buy with its profits. Cotton alone promises
a poor yield, but il should be borne in mind that
the new cotton year begins with a comfortable
surplus from last years return, while. so far as
the planters are concerned. the loss on the yield
will be made up by the gain in price, which
from current indications will get above the IA
cent level, If not materially higher. A bull
movement is under way on the Cotton Ex-
change, based more on actual conditions than
on speculative manipulation. The consumption
OF cotton at home and in foreign countries un-
doubtedly will be enormous in the next twelve
months.
United States Steel shares made new high rec
ords last week on speculative and investment