Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1909-01-03
OUTLOOK IS BETTER
Stock Market Shows Large
Measure of Recovery.
PANIC LOSSES ABOUT GONE
Tariff Revision Fails to Disturb the
Brokers.
PIN FAITH TO REP. PLEDGES
Harriman's Invasion Of Manhattan
a Play to Square Accounts With
Ryan-Italian Securities.
PANIC LOSSES ABOUT GONE
PIN FAITH TO REP. PLEDGES
sciaI CORRESPONDENCE Of The Star.

The year 1908 having passed into MS
tory. everybody looks ahead. trying to
fathom what the future may hold out
during the coming year.
The outlook is very decidedly bet
ter than 1t was year ago. There has
been a larger measure of recovery in the
stock market than anywhere else. Sew
enty-fve per cent of the active stocks on
the list have regained from so to SO per
cent Of losses from previous high-water
marks. In some cases the rise mas al
most wiped out the panic shrinkage-
In many quarters 1t is conteDded that
the stock market should now wait until
the rest Of the business world moves up
into line. That, however, has been the
cry every day for the last eight months
yet stock prices have continued to rise
with very slight interruption throughout
that entire period They may continue
to rise, for the market is I'm the same
strong hands that have been engineering
the bull campaign from the start AS
long as money remains in abundant sup
ply and can be had cheap the speculation
may go on regardless OF outside condl-
lions. 1t depends almost wholly on the
will of small group of men In control
of both stocks and the New York banks
and trust companies. They have found
the going easy and may wish to prolons
the entertainment.
Expectations of a further rise in secur-
ity quotations are based on the theory
that general business Will gain in volume
and momentum, and that the railroads
will be able to increase their earnings
both gross and net, from the rise IN
freight rates From the talk heard one
might assume that this advance in rates
is all ahead Of us. In point of fact the
schedules have been moved up gradually
for the last six or eight months. Ihe
change has been made so quietly and al
most stealthily that the public at large
does not realize what has been going on
The most conspicuous advance is that
advertised on the roads west OF the Mis-
sissippi and styled generally under the
head of transcontinental. There has been
grand uprising on the Pacific coast
against this increase in the freight tarin,
but only the faintest echoes Of the tumult
have reached Wall street, and without
producing the slightest market effect.
Later on the east may be obliged to
take notice-that is, IL the Pacific coast
ers take their case before the interstate
commerce commission and Congress, &C
cording to the loudly proclaimed program.
AS matters stand the railroads are seem
ingly Indifferent to the public attitude on
this proposed advance In freight rates
The fixed determination Is put into e1-
feet higher rates wherever it can be done
without loss of business. They feel they
have the right of the argument and are
going ahead. Should this move be fol-
lowed by increased revenues of conse-
quence. then the railroads will be in
position TO raise new capital for improve
ments, extensions and other expenses.
When this state OF things arrives, then
will the orders pour in for material Wh1ch
will set the wheels and the mills going
again and stimulate the industrial activ-
ity to the old-time standard.
Naa ptirne the railroads not going
into the market to borrow money On any
considerable scale. In the main they are
combining their efforts in the borrowing
line to arrangements for refunding short
time loans and floating indebtedness into
long-term bonds. The aggregate amount
of short-term railroad notes outstanding
which will have to be taken care of this
year and next approximate $4OO.OOO,:'v.
About half of that sum becomes due tins
year. AS soon as the idle money finds
its way into investment channels and
into commerce and trade then rates may
be expected to harden and spectators
will find their scalping profit on borrowed
money getting thinner and thinner. The
last year has been the harvest time Cor
the rich stock market gamblers and the
situation savers" In time this class of
Legitimate" Meantime they still hold
the advantage and there is no reason
why they should step aside.
Tariff No Bugaboo.
For some reason the stock market re-
fuses to take on anything of a scare on
account of the tariff revision which is to
take place next spring and summer. Word
comes from Pittsburg, Chicago, Cleveland
and other industrial centers north and
south that there is local alarm, but it
has failed to communicate to this sec
ton. The feeling hereabouts deepens
rrrhn re to 1,ro
tacks there will be really very little re-
vision that can hurt. 1t is recalled that
the republican party stands pledged to do
nothing which will discourage confidence
or retard a return to full prosperity This
pledge it is thought will take precedence
of promises for tariff revision. The latter
will. it is thought, be framed upon de-
velopments which manufacturers, mer-
chants and bankers will be able to show
before the voting begins.
Several magazines and many news
papers are reaching an agreement as to
what the new law ought to be-that is,
they are picking out schedules here and
cut and slashed. Congress, when is IN
trusted with the actual work Of revision,
remains to be heard from. and as every
congressman will be personally and po
litically interested in protecting his own
locality the practical chances are against
drastic action. 1t is the old case of the
cohesion of selfish interests opposed to
the abstract demand of public which
realizes that a reduction in duties would
be to its advantage, but hasn't time to
go to Washington S0O00.0OO strong to
argue the matter. Hence the skepticislm
of Wall street and its rejection of scare
talk on this subject. Between Washing
ton and New York there exists the caa1-
est relationship. This does not imply
anything corrupt or improper. 1t simply
means that Washington is the political
heart of the nation as New York is the
financial center and the headquarters of
more business than any other community
in the United States. Almost every large
industry in America is represented here
and the financial district keeps in close
touch with every feature and phase of
development and activity. This just
comes about naturally.
The two items Of news which connect up
with MIR. Hartman this week are reports
that he is working hard and with good
prospects OF success for the election OF his
friend l.. r. Loree, to the presidency of
New York Central in the place of MIR.
Newman, retired. This intelligence is a
shock to the friends of Vice President w.
G. Brown who was popularity supposed to
be slated for the job. Mr.. Loree is at the
present time president of Mr. Hartman 8
Delaware and Hudson system. Previous
to that he had broken away from the
presidency of Rock Island, and before his
connection with that system he had been
For two or three years there has been
growing intimacy between him and Mr.
Hartman and they are now the closest of
personal and business associates. If he
should be elevated to the presidency of
New York Central the deal will probably