The Birmingham age-herald., 1909-05-02
NICHOLAS WALL
 STREET LETTER Only Clean of Comfort for the
 Bears MARKET IS CREEPING UP Money Is Still Easy and cheap-spe- clalists in Iron and Steel Trade Are Singing cheerfuIly-siens
 Are Generally Hopeful.
MARKET IS CREEPING UP
By w. G. NICHOLAS.

|
 New York, May 1-There is only
 sleam of comfort for the bears and short
 sellers in stocks Occasionally they have
 an inning. but 1t Is short lived as rule
 and Is followed by a season of grief All
 the time the market creeps up. It is not
 the public that is buying, for the com
 plaint among the commission men Is all
 most universal that there is a famine of
 outside orders. Somebody is manifestly
 buying. however, and if it isn't the public l or the rank and file of professionals 1t 1 must be the big interests. Shorts. of
 course contribute their part to the rallies l but there is not that huge, unwieldy
 short interest in stocks which Is some | times observable.
 The traders as a general thing are 1 wary and do not commit themselves heavily to the side they really favor 1 They have been taught in the school of bitter experience that it does not pay to I go against the movements directed by the l important interests Their reading of the 1 tape tells them that there is very little l liquidation of securities and that the evil 1 dent wish of the market masters is to l slowly work quotations higher. They are
 not rampageous in their market action, ! but all the time they endeavor to make i 1t plain that the purpose is to move up l the general level.
 1 Among the wise ones on the exchange l and in the offices the commonly accepted l theory is that the great market leaders 1 backed by the banking combinations are l getting the market situation into such l shape that when the tariff bill is passed 1 and signed and the crop conditions are
 fairly well defined the country will draw l a lopr of relief and a a nrplinf-
 mary to the grand whoop-up go into the stock market to get a little spending l money
 It is up on such occasions that the big l fellows who have loaded up lower down l proceed to unload and take their profits. 1 Some such entertainment seems to be in
 store The public, which is doing little 1 or nothing now, is relied upon to come l in freely later on when quotations get l to 15 points higher. Then when they get
 the stocks they will have the pleasure Of 1 lugg1ng the load until they get tired. 1 The big fellows having made their kill l ing, will have other use for their money
 besides supporting stoc.is. This beauti- | full view Is the one which is held by i majority of the experienced people in the 1 street. They recognize the futility of go- 1 ing against the machine, and yet they
 have no real faith in the merit of import l ant further advance. Consequently they
 chart the future for a further general l rise followed by serious reaction to come 1 singularly enough at the very time when the industries of the country are begin ming to stir into activity.
 The market is helped by continuance
 of easy and cheap money The leading
 railroads and the majority of the bank
 ing element are not looking for marked 1 revival in business until late autumn or
 possibly after the turn of the year The l railroads show this by their reluctance l to make contracts for supplies, new rails ! or new equipment. Bankers evidence the
 same feeling by their entire willingness ] to put their loanable funds out sixa months or longer to any people of good 1 credit they can induce to borrow. Mean time the corporations are going ahead l serenely with their plans for issuing and
 floating new bonds for improvement and l construction later on and In making pro-
 vision for maturing obligations. A rail- | road management will be a poor excuse
 that has a floating debt at the end of 1 the year which by any possibility can be | extinguished At the rate of bond issues l for the first four months of the calendar
 year 1t looks as though the entire output l for 1909 may approximate $4, 000 | This is exclusive of state, municipal or 1 interlIrban trolley bonding. The bond | market is in such condition that any
 thing which will stand scrutiny meets l with ready sale. The absorption of bonds l i very large scale and has extended into | almost every division of issue. On one
 day last week transactions of bonds on | the New York stock exchange were in
 excess of $10,000,0OO
 | Specialists in the iron and steel trades | are singing cheerfu1ly. They are in
 very amiable and hopeful mood. They
 are fully convinced that the iron trade is
 at last on an upgrade that spells for per il manency and for continued Improvement T and widening out The intensity of the | fight between the big corporation and the | independents has softened noticeably Lit | tie is heard these days of war to the | knife and survival of the fittest' .
 The feeling now is that there Is going l to be enough goodness for eYerypody IT 1 an attitude of patience and common sense
 is observed True the productive capac | ity of the country is now at it's maximum | and that further new construction Is be- 1 ing planned, but among the wisest and l most experienced men in the industry the 1 conviction is deep seated that even at the | limit of capacity there will be more than l enough to go round a year hence-this 1 in the face of the fact that the Steel | corporation, with it's 100000 tons capac- litv will represent only about 5o per cent l of the total. Rapid as the growth of the corporation has been during the last six l years the independents have moved at a | still more rapid rate. While the corpora 1 ton has actually fallen back in the per 1 centage of it's capacity as compared with | the whole, the independents have gained | ground. The corporation may ultimately l become a monopoly but there is nothing 1 of that sort discernible at this writing. | A distinctive market feature is the very evident play of the big leaders to en- l courage short selling. Prices are let 1 down easily and traders are given the chance to feel the ground easily under 1 offerings This imparts to the situation 1 a false sense of weakness and the raiders
 jump in to snatch things, only to find that C-----------.- ----------------------I-,aJ