Evening star., 1909-03-11
MOORE TURNS ON HIS CRITICS
"HYSTERICAL ABUSE" HE
TERMS COMMENTS.
Forecast Right Nine Times in Ten,
He Asserts-Would Prophesy
Again as He Did for March 4.

The prediction was made today by the
! forecaster of the weather bureau that the
| reports received and meteorological condi
ticns generally point to a continuation OF
the present bran Of weather.
! Prof. Willis l.. Moore, chief of the
weather bureau, has promulgated state.
! nient over his signature In reference tC
! the bareback of March 8 and 4. under
the heading. The Storm of March f.
He says:
1T is not usual to answer criticisms OF
the forecasts of the weather bureau. But
the hundreds of press clippings that have
been received since March 4. containing
adverse criticisms Of the bureau, seem tO
call for this statement from me.
Forecasts Of the weather bureau are
before the public every day in the year
In the past about one prediction out OF
each ten failed to be verified. 1t may be
expected that the same ratio of failure
will he maintained until meteorology can
be made, what is is not now, an exact
science.
AS to That "Flareback.'
''In the case of the storm that visited
Washington the 4th of March Last the
fact Is that the disturbance began here
the morning of the Sd, and was accurate
ly forecasted the day before. The bureau
anticipated that the storm center would
pass over the middle Atlantic states dur
ing the night of the Sd, and that north
west winds and falling temperatures
would leave a clear day for the 4th.
The center passed precisely as fore
cast, the wind shifted and the tempera-
ture fell. But instead of the northwest
wind clearing the sky. as it does in nearly
all cases, precipitation in the form of
snow occurred and continued for twelve
hours after the storm center had passed
eastward.
mo forecaster could foresee this.
Were We to forecast a fall of snow
following the passage Of storm centerS
that move from the northwest we would
have hundreds of failures charged against
us. instead Of an occasional one, for 1t is
rare that snow falls in the middle At
lantic states except with the approach of
a storm from the southwest, which causes
northeast winds.
1T is extremely rare that any storm
in this region that begins with rain ends
with snow of any considerable amount
On the contrary. many storms that begin
as snow end as rain.
Would Prophesy So Again.
The forecast in question was made
by one of the most experienced fore
casters of the bureau and was concurred
in by all forecasters who were con-
versant with the conditions. The same
forecast would be made today If similar
conditions existed.
1.-The forecasters of the weather bureau
are the equals, if not the superiors. Of
any others in the world. Their predic-
tions Of frosts. cold waves, floods and
marine storms, although subject to error
in the proportion Of about one to ten. are
Of such value to the Industries of the
nation that, If one of the newspapers
that now so freely criticise because two
unverffed forecasts for the District of
Columbia have fallen on Inauguration day,
were to omit from its pages the daily
predictions of the weather its readers
would compel 1t to restore them. If the
department or Congress were to close
a station of the bureau in any part of
the United States the property interests
would demand it's restoration.
This would not be the case If the hys-
terical abuse that is now being INDUCED
in was justified