The Washington herald., 1909-03-16

Sperisl Cable 70 The ws5inston Herald.
London. March I5.-The talk Of Europe
to-day is all of war. and yet war is un-
necessary and even absurd under present
circumstances. Serva's reply to Aus
tria is pronounced very evasive and IN
satisfactory So. perhaps. it is neither
defiant nor provocative. The way Is stiU
open for successful negotiations unless
Austria Is deliberately seeking an excuse
for crushing her small neighbor-
The situation IN one sense would be
improved II Servla furnished such an ex-
cuse by becoming truculent and sggres-
sive. for then Il might become possible
FOR the dual monarchy 10 trOunce her
without involving Russia or other powers
II the truth were known. nobody would
care II such were the hral outcome. OF
the existing complications. Il is neces-
sary 70 bear in mind one essential fact.
This crisis is the direct outcome OF the
Russo-Japanese war. Austria'S whole
policy Is based on the assumption that
Russia IS unable 10 undertake any Balkan
war. Were It not>for this Austro-Hun-
gary would not dare pursue her present
course. She knows Russia viii not 20 so
far as To take up arms on behalf OF the
Serbs unless an outbreak OF public pas
sion virtually forces her 10 do So
Must Have Public Opinion.
Hence the supreme Importaace OF put
ting Se-via morally On the wrong before
taking active measures against her. This
is such an essential preliminary 20 mill
tary action that the general opinion now
prevalent 10 the effect that Austria viii
Immediately send a decisive ultimatum
20 Belgrade IS probably vrons.
Il Is more likely that the dual mon
archy viii make one more attempt by
ordinary diplomatic means 10 induce Ser
via 10 abandon her military preparations
before resorting 20 harsber methods.
Nevertheless. il is clearly evident that
Austria is fully determined TO compel
Servia 70 eat dirt or fight. and she hopes
the Scrvian hotspurs VIII choose the
latter alternative. So thSy would with
out much doubt if left 20 themselves. bit
the strongest pressure from St. Peters
burg and the Western powers viii be
brought 10 bear in the next two or three
DAYS with Belgrade. and perhaps with
good effect.
II must be admitted that the latest de-
velopments had most depressing effect
upon the financial and commercial worlds.
4 lively business was done ar LIoyds 70
day in war insurance. Fifty per cent
premium was demanded on that there
would be no WAY between Austria and
Servia within three months. and much
business was refused. even al these ex-
traoEiinary figures. The feeling is 50
pessimistIc that business turned most 10
the principle Of whether hostiUties could
be localized.
Russia as Focal Center.
The whole question turns on Russia II
she Is able 10 keep out OF the fray the
matter viii be OF little consequence TO
the world at large On the other hand.
II she became involved a general Europ-
can war would be inevitable.
II Is almost inconceivabIe that such
consequences could follow the present
insignificant squabbIe. yet the danger is
everywhere regarded as a very real one.
No one understands this better than such
men as VI. ISvolsky. Russian minister Of
foreign affairs; Sir Edward Grey. Brit
ish foreign secretary. and NJ Clemenceau.
the French prime minister.
Such an emergency IS not going 10
find them idle. and their power is great.
They have helped TO solve greater prob
lens than this In the past six months.
and IL IS not thinkabie that they viii allow
the world 10 DRIFT helplesSly into the
greatest catastrophe Of modern times
Hence. I am unable 10 share in the pes
simism Of the hour