The farmer and mechanic. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 18??-19??, 1909-04-13
Drifting Into a Period OF
Imitation Says Henry
CIeWs
Observation-Disclosures

Business is Moderate in Volume. Yet
The Tendency is Certainly Towards
Improvement - All known Draw
backs Have Been Amply Discounted.
New York, April 1o.-Owing to in
t~ervention of the Easter holidays the
market has shown q quieter and some
what irregular tone. After q rise OF
! TO 5 points more or less realizing OIL
profits was inevitable in the absence OF
any fresh stimulus to an advance.
Easy money, however, is still the dom
mating factor in the stock market.
Owing TO the general inactivity of bus
mess money is very redundant, not
My in New York, but at all financial
centerS at home and abroad. The sup
ply of commercial paper Is limited, and
borrowers can now readily lind better
terms in London than in New Iork.
AT home the ease in money is greatly
aggravated by the mass of paper IN
iected into our currency. On April l
the mount OF circulation in the Unit
eds States was $3,OS6, 600, 900, an in
crease, compared with last year,
amounting to more than $4,000
geo, Of which Sc, 200, 900 was in bank
notes; and this in spite Of the pro-
vision allowing the WithdraWaI OF ~
oe8, 00o annually. Meanwhile the
treasury lost $21, OO0, 900 of gold dur-
ing the same period. such an abnor-
NAL amount of paper currency at q
time Of business depression when mo-
ney is not wanted is working out the
inevitable undesirable results. There
is no use Disgusting the the fact that
we are drifting into q period OF IN
flation. mainly due to the fact that
our rigid bond-Secured currency syS-
tenn fails to adapt itself to the fluctu-
ating requirements of business. Were
our currency based upon scientific
principles it would now be contracting
instead of expanding, and interest
rates would be upOn a more natufal
basis. Very shortly we shall ave an
other bond issue for the Panama ca
nal, and this may be depended upon
70 still further increase our currency
supply. With call one going beg
cling at 1 1-2 per cent to 2 per cent.
and time money superabundant divi-
dend paying stocks by contrast natur-
ally are made to appear cheap. This
state Of affairs ma last for sometime
TO come. yet thu should not blind the
eyes Of the prudent to the fact that an
advance on purely inflatfonary cOndl
tons cannot be cOntinued-indefinitely
.I1fu .f1uSt u1l1tSS CIicChtd I'LL
pleasant consequences in the indefi-
mite future. Another feature in con-
nection with the monetary situation is
that ~a>redundancy of paper money al
ways tends to drive out gold. We have
already returned all Of, the precious
metal brought in after the panic, and
unless we are favored with much larg-
or crops next autumn, and plenty for
export, we may haveeto face another
.ro ~ affI,av of pn36 70 naC faT naraaS G.
ing ilnportations, unless we a settle
our international trade balance by
manufactured products or securities.
Our crop outlook is becoming of in
creasing importance. The condition
Of winter wheat is anything bat sat
isfactory, the acreage being consider
ably S1n aller than a year ago and con-
tition lower. While there has been
some Improvement In the latter re-
spect, the prospects are h the win
ter crop will be the lowest since 1904.
some estimates placing it as low as
a25,0O0, 900 bushels. The effect Of this
IS already seen in the abnormally
nigh prices for wheat; for the worlds
crop Of wheat is unquestionably short
and has not kept pace With the growth
in population. 1t is possible that 9
much greater area will be planted
than usual. in spring wheat, but as
winter wheat usually forms about two
thirds of the whole crop the ,signifi.
canee Of the present situation is east
iy understood. Moreover, high prices
for1Wheat are not generally considered
a sound bull argument on stocks. In.
dications point to considerable in
crease in the acreage of corn, and as
that has proved a very profitable croI
at recent prices. there is morerreasor
tor hoPefulness regarding this staple
than 1n~wheat. 1t is altogether toe
early, however, to form any~reliabIs
opinions regarding the crops, although
much depends upon a satisfactory har.
Isl crop. failure next fail would bt
particularly Unfortunate ca,o;na -
't'ne:o OF business depression when tn,