The Washington herald., 1909-04-18
MAY WHEAT S1.29
IN CHICAGO PIT
Continued from Page Two.

1 correspondents, or WnOm IvUOO are pdlu'
and the weekly and monthly reports OF
these correspondents, forwarded By tele-
graph or post TO Washington. are review
ed by board of statistical experts, who
consolidate them into public reports.
The Government Reports.
The governments monthly report for
the first Of the month is Issued on the
10th. on December 10 is issued the first
report OF the acreage sown TO winter
wheat and the average condition, 100 be-
ing used as the normal. Three months
later is reported the amount OF the pre-
vious seasons crop stil in farmers hands.
Condition reports are made in April. June
and July. The May report also revises
the acreage estimate. deducting for win
ter killed and abandoned acreage. The
July report makes second estimate of
the amount of wheat IN farmers hands.
In August the yield per acre Is reported.
The spring wheat report begins in July.
and in September the harvest condition
Of both crops Is given. In October the
yield per acre and the quality OF spring
wheat are reported Late In December
a final estimate is made by the Depart
ment OF Agriculture OF the volume Of ali
the crops Of the country for the year.
But the government crop reports, de-
spite all the elaborate system that has
been developed TO make them trust
worthy, do not satisfy the big spectators
or the men whose business ventures are
Influenced by the harvest. Every railway
system in the wheat and corn belt has its
own reports from correspondents and eX-
perts. Ull, Of the Great Northern, for
example. knows Just how much wheat he
will have 10 haul from every station on
his lines in Minnesota and the Dakotas
weeks in advance OF the government re-
ports The Hill lines receive many NIL
lions of dollars year from the transpor-
tation Of wheat and corn. and this rev.
enue varies with the volume Of the crops.
One Of the big Chicago banks. which has
correspondents all through the grain
country, publishes a detailed estimate OF
the wheat crop. and other banks have pri-
vate reports
Private Experts at work.
Large industrial companies. Ike the
Standard Oil Company and the Interna-
tional Harvester Company. have elabor-
ate systems for private estimates. So do
the great elevator people. like the Ar
mours, and the large grain brokerage
houses. Grain experts are employed by
these principals, not only to travel back
and forth over the grain belt Of this
country and Canada. watching the
growth of wheat and corn, but also to
study and estimate the probable crops Of
the other great exporting cOuntries-Rus-
sa India. Australia and Argentina.
But the crop reports that are behind the
big speculative campaigns are those made
by the private experts, like Snow, Of Chi
; cagO, VINO is Patterns right-hand nan.
The best known OF these experts is II. J.
Jones' of Minneapolis. who recently gave
up crop reporting 10 buy the Minneapolis
Journal Jones began crop estimating as
a reporter on this newspaper. He won the
confidence Of the big men Of the North
west, and Jim. Hill regularly consults
r him on crop conditions. II was Hill. il is
; believed. who put up the N,@0000 that
Jones paid last year for the Journal
Jones made his hit as a crop fOrecaster
in 1900. when a drought in the Northwest
seriously damaged the prospects of the
spring Weat crop. A wild speculation IN
, Minneapolis and Chicago was the result.
The farmers, TO recOup their losses from
the drought made heavy purchases OF
wheat options in the market, and. from
( GO cents in May. wheat advanced p cents
e. bushel 10 90 cents in June. and the
I, spectators thought it would sell way
. above 81. The crop in the three States"
r Minnesota and the Dakotas-Which had
been 10000 bushels the previous season,
- was estimated at first at I00OO0.OGO bush
e els. then at 100000 bushels. and in June
S the estimated had fallen 10 S0.o0OO00 bush
els.
= Pricking the Bubble.
The Journal sent Jones out through the
three States to find whether or not there
was any wheat left in the fields The
e crop reporter Travelled up and down Mn
{ nesota and through the Dakotas. al
times by train. but more often in a
wagon or afoot. As day after day went
; by and he saw more and more Of the
wheat country, the more he became con
r WINGED that q good deal more wheat
s could be harvested than the spectators
. and the farmers dreamed OF. But nearly
J. every big wheat farmer he met told hin
Of the frightful damage by drought. None
believed IN a crop Of more than 10000
90 bushels. The young reporter knew
that he would be ridiculed by the grain
e trade II he ventured 70 make a highe,
( estimate Of the crop. He almost lost
Q heart.
q one day at a little railway station. he
]
. 10 ask him his opinion OF the crop =
find more wheat than the rest Of them.
o said Jones, but they all tell me I'm
z wrong" Young man." said the farmer
7 patting him on the back. stick to X
. There's more wheat in this crop thar
y any Of them believes" The crop re-
? porter felt that. II one man agreed with
Il him. he must be right, and he went back
3 TO Minneapolis. and put out his estimate
on q crop Of 125.o00,0OO bushels.
{ This big estimate pricked the specu-
lative bubble. Rain fell in the fields and
e farmers began to discover some wheat
$ and the spectators rushed in TO dump
I their lines into the pit Wheat tumbleC
= from 90 cents TO 70 cents a bushel and
s the bull speculation collapsed. When the
e crop had been harvested and marketed
; and the millers and the elevator people
3 had counted all the wheat that had come
2 from the farms, the yield was found tC
> measure 100000 bushels. The govern
ments report of but S5.OO0000 bushels was
20 made ridiculous by the reports OF the re-
= ceipts at Minneapolis and Duluth.
Estimate Confirmed.
! The remarkable accuracy OF the Jones
forecast gave the young crop reporter q
q position in the grain trade which in sue.
s ceeding seasons became stronger. In 100,
L the June government estimate Of the TO-
tai wheat crop Of the country was 10000.
900 bushels above the Jones figures. II
- July the government was still 75,OOOO OOt
e bushels above him, and when the gov.
ernment December figures We're published
they had cut of this 75. 100000 and few
/. millions more. When the authentic re
4 ports were published the crop turned ou
: TO be what ne had estimated it in thu
4 | early summer
e But it was in 1904 that Jones-no Longer