The Birmingham age-herald., 1909-10-30
Jump During Six Days Has Been Between S5 and
 S6 a Bale
BULLS YET AGGRESSIVE AND OUTCOME DOUBTFUL Many Believe New Era of Cotton Values Has Set In and That Much
 Permanent Decline Is
 Not Likely.

New York. October 29.-It has been & wild week in cotton, with a jump of $5 to $6 bale.
 This was based on a growing conviction that it is short crop and that there is nothing for it but much higher prices before the season Is ended. Whether this advance will culminate by the end of the calendar year is, of course. matter for the future to determine, but bulls are talking of crop of only 100000 to 10, 500,000 bales, and a consumption oS 13, 0OO.000 to 13500,0O0 bales, though to many 1t Is not clear how the consumption can reach such a quantity unless the present crop estimates are too low. Only 1,400,000 bales of American cotton were carried over from last season.
 But while there may be. disagree ment, as to the precise size of the crop and the consumption, the belief is al- most universal that the yield is at any rate only moderate and inadequate to the needs of the worlds cotton trade. It is argued, too, that if the cotton crop of the south is to be worth this year some $S00,0O0,00O the purchasing power of the south will be greatly increased and with the high prices which western farm CTS are obtaining for their grain it will greatly stimulate the use of cotton goods and enable manufacturers to obtain high CT prices, even more than commensurate with the higher level of the raw material.
 New Era in Prices.
 There are those who think that new era of cotton values has set in and that there is not likely to be much permanent decline in the price until there is a radi- cal increase in the production, owing to the increased cultivation of vast area at the southwest suitable for cotton cul- 'ture.
 The story is that Patten, Gates, Hayne, Scales, Brown and other interests have been big buyers and. though taking profits from time to time, still remain very bullish in their convictions. Many other operators in Chicago, New Orleans, Memphis, Wall street and Liverpool have also bought. followed by the general pub lice. The Waldorf-Astoria contingent and people in the tobacco and metal trades have also, 1t appears, still been buying. Cotton is one of the chief topics, rivall- ing steel at the clubs and big hotels. Elk ports have been large, cotton goods ac- tive and rising and Liverpool sIraddlers in some cases at least appear to have got hold of the hot end of .he poker. In other words, it Is said there was a very large amount of this arbitrage business originally done by selling in New York . and buying in Liverpool. The liquida- tion of such straddles by buying here and selling in Liverpool explains in part the strength of late in prices here and the sluggishness or weakness of Liver pool.
 Fears Too Much Wildfire.
 On the other hand it is feared that this speculation is too much of wild fire There is said to be less pyramiding than there was last spring and summer, but for all that the market is by many con siderd dangerous. They seriously doubt whether the recent advance Is justified. Prices are some $25 bale higher than a year ago and the actual size of the crop is as yet undetermined. The re- ceipts at the ports are large and the weekly movement Into sight suggests to some the idea that the crop is being underestimated. The stock here is rapid- ly increasing. Though the movement to eurtaiI production has thus far failed in the north of any very substantial results, some 160 Georgia mills have agreed to re- duce 2S per cent and it is argued that it is only a question of time if prices con- tinue to advance when widespread cur tailment will be imperative It is urged, too, that after an advance within a week of something like 100 to 125 points sharp reaction is to be expected at almost any time.
 Today, however, there was more big buying followed by rout of the bears and the Liverpool arbitrageurs and sharp rise in prices.