The Jeffersonian. [volume] (Atlanta, Ga.) 1907-1917, 1909-12-23
THE COTTON CROP AND PRICE.


'The Government estimate of the size of the
cotton crop this year has had the most bullish
effect the market. This estimate was lower
than any previous one, from any source for it
puts this years crop at only little over 10 ,OOO-
600 bales. The previous most accepted belief had
been that the crop would be in the neighborhood
of 100000 bales.
While it is probable, in view of the fact that
the Government estimates made at this time have
uniformly been too large, that the final total re-
ceipts will be in excess of this present estimate it
has had the effect of raising the price There re-
mains longer any doubt that cotton will reach
still higher level, and it would not be all sur
pr1sng If it should go nearly or quite to 20 cents
before the end of the season.
This rise in the price of cotton is not a good
thing for the South, and especially for the cotton
grower This may seem a strange view to take
OF it, but little reasoning will show that it is
the correct one. Ordinarily the higher the price
OF staple, the better it is for those who produce
IL, or whose affairs are intimately related to the
prosperity of the producers, which in the case of
cotton applies to the South as a whole Had the
price of cotton been high as it is now or as it
bids fair to rise, at the beginning of the season it
would nave benefited the cotton-growers and the
South immensely.
"But now very little cotton remains in the
hands of the farmers. They have for the most
part sold their cotton as fast as it was ginned
and the ginning is very nearly completed. How
little is held by the farmers may be understood
from the stocks in the Augusta warehouses; AL
though the receipts up to the present are over
$4,000 bales ahead of last seasons to this date
the stock held in Augusta is "a 900 bales less or
Tess IMAM tWo-th1rds OF last seasons holdings.
Comparatively little cotton is held by farmers or
by any one else in the South, and any rise in price
now can therefore not benefit the South much
ION the other hand it may do great harm This
1t may do if the farmers, melted by the high price
this year, increase their acreage next year Should
favorable crop year follow under such circum-
stances, 1t would mean bumper crop, and a ter
rble drop in price. Not only would the farmers
fail to get the high price for which they had
planted, but they would have incurred expenses
IN making this crop the basis of high prices
and probably also neglected other crops to raise
more cotton. Compelled under such circum-
stances to sell for lower price the result would
be disastrous. 1t would set the farmers back
Two or three years, and would have a depressing
erect on the South generally
For the past twelve years every alternate cot
ton crop has been large and small. For the last
seven years this alternate large and small crop
mas been very decided Under this order the crop
next year would be large and the price of course
correspondingly low
If our farmers will heed the lesson so plainly
apparent IN all this and just sit steady in the boat
plant only the usual acreage in cotton next wear
ana try TO raise more corn and other things high
prices for cotton might be maintained and in
creased prosperity come to them and to the South
Will they do this? Or will they allow the
nlgh price of cotton to lead them into committing
the great mistake of increasing the acreage?'