The Birmingham age-herald., 1909-01-31
WARNED
 OF EARTHQUAKE Value of the American Weather
 Bureau FRANK ALVORD FERRET This American Predicted the Late South Italian Catastrophe Dur ing Last Year and Drew
 Plan of 1t.
FRANK ALVORD FERRET

This new catastrophe Is the 12th of the century, and brings the death list to over 100000. An eruption of Kina is also be- ginning. The record includes Guatemala, Martinique, St. Vincent, Mobile, Calves ton, San Francisco Valparaiso. Jamaica, Kartaghan, Calabria Vesuvius and Mes sina. The property loss Is countless mill lions. Three of these places are Ameri- can. At all of them the destruction has been wrought by natural agencies.
 In the cases of Mobile and Galveston there was definite prediction by the weather buraeu. This office systemati- cally records the movements of the at mosphere of widely distributed stations, and now is recognized as one of the most efficient, valuable and humane scientific organizations in the world Similar me- neurological establishments are maintained by all civilized nations. The other nine disasters were occasioned by volcanoes or earthquakes The coast lines of the world are dotted with volcanoes, and no region is known which Is exempt from earthquakes. No geologist in the United States would venture to deny the statement that New York city is just as liable to great earth quake disaster as was Charleston in 1886. With these facts before us 1t would seem justifable to call science to account for it's attitude with regard to the Atmosphere Cor rock-crusD as contrasted with It's point of view concerning the atmosphere. If wrong, no one is more likely to acknowl- edge his error than the man of science, for he is an humble seeker after truth. Sometimes a great worldwide affiiction, like this horror, which has stunned and mutiliated Italy, may work benef1cence by stimulating men to a new vision of their usefulness.
 Know Stars, But Not Earth.
 A great convention of American geolo- gists has just completed it's deliberations in Baltimore All of these gentlemen are interested in earthquakes, but there are probably not a half dozen members of the society who have any technical or mathematical knowledge of them, and not many more who have ever experi- enced one The idea that such experience was important for a geologist would be secuted as a jest. Many of these men are teachers in universities. If a Mar tian astronomer were to appear sud denly in their midst. after returning from visit to the Lowell observatory at Flagstaff, where his own existence had been so wonderfully interpreted, the fol- lowing dialogue might be expected:
 Where you know the heavens so well, of course your own earth is to you as an open book%
 ''Yes." reluctantly.
 You have observatories for the record ing of all earth phenomena?"
 No"
 What! Did you not learn anything about local terrestrial motions before you studied the stars?''
 'No, we do not know anything about terrestrial movements"
 Do you mean to tell me that you have fOr them?"
 We have the seismograph, but none of us understand 1t, and as for other earth notions all we know we have learned from physicist and the astronomer
 But you live on the earth, and must have to meet every crisis as 1t arises; can you foretell nothing?"
 Well, you see, we don't think of it that way. We treat 1t historically and make notes, and use hammer and a compass, and are very much interested in the bones Of Jurassic reptiles and in making maps of the rocks. and in finding out all about iron and coal. But we have no such pre- else knowledge as the astronomer.
 But surely, in teaching your young men in the universities, you begin by pre- else instrumental study of the present earth and it's processes and have vast accumulation of experience concerning those processes, in the form of tables, measurements, formulae, curves, dia- grams and computations
 fNo, almost nothing has been done in accommodating experience or empirical data, except by the Japanese When a volcanic eruption or an earthquake occurs we send geoogist to study the results, and he writes thick and learned report. We do not know anything about what the conditions were during the months before the disaster. We teach our young geolo- gists first little physics and chemistry. and few generalities about earth pro- cess, and then set them to work mapping ancient rocks. The highest development of geology is the unraveling of the his- tory of the past We haven't time to go into prediction and humanistic geology" The Science of Economy. The above is not exaggerated. The blame does not rest with the geologist; it rests rather with the haphazard growth of the science, and the proximity of the earth has made terrestrial observation and measurement difficult in view of the littleness of man. This plea. however. can no longer be urged in extenuation of the neglect of the study of earth process. We have a considerable knowledge of physical science, and there are many in- struments applicable to the earth. There is a very precise science known as geod- 6sy, WHICH HdS TOT US ODJecI the ue- termination of the figure of the earth. There is geology. which aims to decipher earth history. Between these two there is needed a new science, many phases of which are now being studied, and this might well be named economy, the science of the laws which govern the earth.
 There is one grave difficulty in the way of rapid development of this science, and that is expense. It is science that calls for the establishment of observatories in many lands. These observatories will have for their objects the study of the changes which are going on in the crust of the earth under them and the relations of those changes to astronomical and me- neurological changes. The new science, like astronomy and the study of the at mosphere, deals with moving things and so requires continuous local records through weeks and months and years. Seismographs, microphones, magneto- graphs, gravity pendulums, promoters, tromometers, gas-collecting apparatus. and many special instruments adapted to local needs are among the devices with which an earth observatory should be equipped.
 The natural places for establishing such observatories at first are lands where the earth movements are most rapid regions of volcanoes and frequent earthquakes The Japanese have taken the lead In such establishment, and their island empire is gtrdled with observatores. The writer has before him a pamphlet. in English, printed in Tolxio in October, 190S,> contain ing eleven contributions to practical seis-