The Washington times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1902-1939, 1909-03-12
FORECAST CORRECT.
SAYS PROF. MOORE

For long time the Weather Bureau
officials have Deen the butt Of the jok-
ers. Whenever the weather does not
pan out according TO the forecast il
has seemed 10 be the proper caper TO
give the weather man the laugh. and
tell him how much better the old sailors
could tell about the weather next week
by the appearance Of the moon.
His patience exhausted, Willis l.
Moore, the Washington forecaster. has
made a reply TO his critics. He dem
onStrates pretty concIusively that his
is no snap OF q JOB.
He says:
1T is not usual to answer criticisms
Of the forecasts Of the Weather Bureau.
But the hundreds OF press clippings that
have been received since March (, con-
tanning adverse criticisms Of the bureau,
seem 10 call for this statement from
me.
Forecasts Of the Weather Bureau
are before the public every day in the
year. In the past about one prediction
out or each ten failed 20 be verified
II may be expected that the same ratio
OF failure will be maintained until me-
teOrology can be made, what It Is not
now. an exact science.
"In the case OF the storm that Wis
tied Washington the 4th Of March last
the fact is that the disturbance began
here the morning of the Sd. and was ac-
curately forecast the day before. The
bureau anticipated that the storm center
would pass over the Middle Atlantic
States during the night Of the Cd. and
that northwest winds and falling tenn
peratures would leave clear day for
the 4th.
The center passed precisely as fore
cast the wind shifted and the tempera-
ture fell. But instead of the northwest
wind clearing the sky, as il does in
nearly all cases, precipitation In the
form OF SNOW occurred and continued
for twelve hours after the storm center
had passed eastward.
NO forecaster could foresee this.
Were We TO forecast a fan OF snow
following the passage OF storm centeT5
that move from the northwest We would
have hundreds OF failures charged
against Us instead OF an occasional one.
for ii is rare that snow falls in the
middle Atlantic States except with the
approach Of a storm from the south
west, which causes northeast winds
1T ts extremely rare that any storm
IN this region that begins with rain ends
with snow or any conSideTa bic amount.
On the contrary many storms that begin
as snow end as rain.
The forecast in question was made
BY one OF the most experienced fore
casters OF the bureau. and was concur
red in by all fOreca Sters who yVers.
conversant with the conditions The
same forecast would be made TODAY r
similar conditions existed
The forecasters or the Weather
Bureau are the equals. If not the super
iors. OF any others I'm the world Their
predictions Of frosts, cold waves. foods.
and marine storms although subject }
error in the proportion OF about one TO
ten. are Of such value 10 the indust ries
Of the nation that. II one of the news
papers that now so freely criticise be-
cause two unverified forecasts for the
District OF Columbia have fallen on in
aUguration day, were 10 omit from its
laf1 tot
weather It's readers would compel Il
20 restore them. IL the department o.
Congress were TO close a station Of the
bureau in any part OF the United States
the property interests would demand its
restoration.
This would not be the case If the
hysterical abuse that is now being In
duIged IN was justified"