The San Juan islander. [volume] (Friday Harbor, Wash.) 1898-1914, 1909-05-14
PosTER1TY WILL srARvE.
Food supply Of the World May Run
short About the Year 1000.

OOu SUPPLY Of the World May Run
snort About the Year 5000.
1T. Nero. a German scientist and
statistician, has ascertained by care
full and ingenious calculations that for
l,OUV more years the earth will pro-
duce sufficient food to feed the steadily
increasing population. Not until the
year 1000 will the food question be-
come one Of serious importance, ac.
cording to his opinion. In the mean
time. says the Brooklyn Eagle, the av-
erage man may go on hunting. the al
mighty dollar or amusing himself ac-
cording to his individual tastes, with
out worrying about the future.
From time to time some statistician
mas tried to scare his contemporaries
by informing them that the earth's
supply Of lumber, coal, iron or gold
would be exhausted in so and SO many
years, but it is safe to say that, ex-
cept1ng In local instances, during a
famine in some foreign country, the
question of providing sufficient food
for the Inhabitants of the earth has
never worried the masses. Yet the
question is logical and its considera-
ton by men of science quite proper.
DR.. Nero argues that to determine
when the population of the earth
would reach the maximum that could
be sustained by the most perfect and
complete utilization of every resource
of food production it would be neces-
sary first to determine how many peo-
pie the earth is able to sustain under
the present agricultural conditions.
Upon the basis of the figures obtained,
it NV easily be calculated when the
fataI .n~,t will be reached.
Ravenstein, in 1891 submitted an es-
innate Of the productivity Of the earth
to the British Geographical Associa-
ton. He estimated that. excluding the
polar regions, the entire territory Of
the earth comprised 100000 square
kilometers of fertile. land, 100000
of prairie and 100000 of desert. He
assumed that one square kilOmeter of
fertile land could sustain about 80 per-
sons, one square kilometer of prairie
land about 2 and one of desert about
y person.
According to those figures and as
Stunning that the population of the
earth would continue to- increase at
the present rate of s per cent in every
ten years the limit of population would
be reached about the year 2O72.
Won Fircks estimated that one
square kilometer of fertile land could
sustain about 100 persons. of prairie,
20, and of desert, 5, and, calculating
upon the basis of an annual increase
of population of but " of l per cent,
he reached the conclusion that not
more than 10000, 100000 people could
live on this earth.
Ravenstein based his figures upon
the assumption that the countries
which import foodstufs, particularly
grain. have already reached a popula-
ton larger than their soil can sustain.
DR.. Nero takes issue with Raven
stein on that point. He points to the
fact that, according to that theory, Ger.
many and France. which import large
quantities of grain, would have to be
among the countries that do not pro-
duce enough foodstuffs to sustain their
population, while Russia, which e
ports grain, would have to be classed
among the countries producing more
than they needed to supply their home
demands. He denies the correctness
of that theory, and contends that
France and Germany import grain be-
cause their people are wealthy and
can afford to eat more and a better
quality of food than the Russians, who
do not export grain because they have
more of it than they need. but because
they cannot afford to keep it, as they
need money.