Daily capital journal. (Salem, Oregon) 1903-1919, 1909-01-18

CdIelul uOIeS OF now II teil. lie
spun the shilling $4,000 times, and
pupil of his, working separately
spun penny 5000 times and also
tested the drawing Of 5000 tickets
from a bag
1t may seem strange that
learned professor shomld put him
self to such an amount of trouble
to demonstrate what every school
boy who had ever tossed a coin al
ready knew. Yet, as a matter OF
fact, few really do grasp the laws
which govern such an apparently
straightforward matter as the tos.
sing OF a coin. In the words OF the
arithmetlcien, the theory OF runs"
that Is, heads turning up re
peatedly-is precisely as follows:
The chance of head is one-halt;
of two heads following, Is one-half
multiplied by one-half--that Is, one
quarter; OF three heads In success
sion, one-half multiplied by one
half-that is, one-eighth. Now, what
do you suppose is the chance of q
run OF eleven heads? Il is safe
to say that not many persons, how
ever accustomed TO tossing coins,
have reasoned this out. The fact
Is that one run" OF II heads is on
the average only TO be expected In
2OiS sets Of coin tossing.
Although tho man in the street
may not have recokned this, he 's
always quite positive that II, say a
coin has fallen ten times head up
ward he Is safe TO start backing
tails. He put his money on tails
turning up because, he says, Il
stands TO sense that the run OF
heads can't continue But does it7
At the eleventh toss the head OF tho
coin is Just as big as II ever was.
What mysterious influence can n
past event. the-tosslng OF ten heads
have on q future one which has no
link with them-namely, the tos-
sing OF the coin the 18th time?
Surely Zach toss is an event by t.
self, as Sir Hiram Maxim said OF a
game at roulette at Monte Carlo:
1t is a pure, unadulterated qucs-
ton OF chance, and IL is not influ-
lyenced in the least by anything
which has ever taken place before or
that ever will take place In the fu-
ture."
A nasty piece OF plain speaking
this for the cranks who had pub
lished schemes for breaking the
bank" ana whose plans depended
entirely on the theory that II one
game ended In win for red" the
chances against II ending "red" a
second time were less. a third time
/ less still, and so on.
This, of course. would be a sound
enough argument provided that you
regard some dozens of games Of
roulette or torses of a coin all as
one continuous event IL is quite
safe, for instance. to offer before
hand big odds against a coin turn
ing up heads ten times running.
but in practice the public house loaf
er does not do this. What he does
Is to bet on each separate toss by
Itself. thus defeating his own aims.
The odds against a coin turning up
heads 11times are, as has been
shown, something like 1000 to 1.
But suppose you only start betting
at the tenth toss. What are the
odds against the eleventh toss again
being a head?
The odds, so far from being 2.OOO
to 1. are actually TO / To use an
Irishism, the odds are eyen-that
is to say, II you split up the IL
tosses into IL separate events to be |
bet on separately your bets should |
be "eyen money" all the time. how |
ever often heads turn up running. |
But II you view the IL tosses as one |
combined event and you offer a
preliminary bet against the whole
II results being heads you will have
TO give gigantic odds.
All this goes TO prove the absO-
Lutte uncertainty OF gambling. The
greate-t mathematician Of the day
cannot be certain how a coin will
fail, so that the man OF merely ay-
erage abilities who stakes anything
important on the toss OF a coin Is
allowing that part Of his fortune TO
pass entirely outside his control
Pearson's Weekly.