The Washington herald., 1909-01-04

A-Sieilt 10 allow most or our railroad COM
panies to refund their maturing obllga-
tons. short term and otherwise, and also
to allow these and other companies TO
obtain money needed FOR general bust
ness use; and II ought TO be remembered
! N this relation that this great and salts
factory accomplishment has been made
possible only by the very slackening Of
/ miscellaneous business throughout the
country OF which complaint Is heard.
Latterly the money market has been a
little firmer. giving rise to predictions
on the part OF ultra pessimists OF some
/ thing OF n "sQueeze'' in rates when the
day actually came for a final gathering
in OF funds 10 meet the January pay
ments- But no such stress nor anything
resembling II put in an appearance. and
IL is universally declared IN banking
circles that money will remain easy
through the present month. and for an
indefinite time to come. There is no
sound reason for questioning this judg-
ment. even in view OF the shocking
calamity in Sicily. on which the attention
and sympathy Of the civilized world are
concentrated Terrible as the catastrophe
is. the money loss involved in il cannot,
according 10 those best fitted TO judge.
be a matter Of international financial
Importance.
Not for many years has It been so easy
as in the present instance TO make gener-
alizations regarding the course OF bust
ness and finance in the twelvemonth Just
ended Events here may be summed up
in the brief statement that since the clos
ing days Of November. 1901. when the
stock market depression touched its
lowest pitch. the history Of the financial
markets has been that Of slow but con-
tlnuOus Improvement, and this improve
ment has been such that pretty nearly
three-quarters OF the previous fall in
market valuations has been regained-
Slowly Emerge from Panic.
Following the panic came, Of course.
time OF business stagnation. out Of which
in due season the forces Of recuDeration
duly emerged These. also. Just as their
sister powers in the stock market, have
steadily developed strength. the greater
buoyance being naturally shown By the
latter. There are two observations which
seem to press themselves more prorni-
nently than others upon the minds OF
those who have given thought and study
10 the economic developments Of the
year.
The first Of these is that the panic OF
1877. with its sequel in 1905. was more Of
a financial than q strictly business sf-
fair. and that It bore more resemblance
% the occurrences OF the year 1906 than
OF any other in our records Il is mani
fest that the troubles Of IsJ7-0S were Of
more serious nature than those Of 1903.
and that there were many points Of sirni-
larity between them and those OF the
famous difficulties in IssS
But the points OF difference betseen
our recent difficulties and those OF fifteen
years ago are even more numerous.
There was not last year or the year be-
fore, as in 1888. a general spread OF dis
aster over the country Cases OF indi-
vidual poverty and distress were not
nearly so frequent. or. in other words.
the collapse OF business and finance was
not nesrly so general
The 1916 depression was caused al
most entirely by a financial overspecu-
lstion. which did not involve the people
OF the country as q whole and was. 10
a very considerable extent. a rich mans
panic. one reason for this being that
Just previous 10 1871 many conservative
business men took III sail IN an extended
way. On the continent OF Europe an
undue imitation OF business enterprise was
much more marked IN the times irume-
distely preceding 1896 than in our own
land, and Il is undoubtedly because of
this that business depression proper Z
now more sCCentuated in Europe. at
least in England and Germany. than in
our own country
Prophecy More Difficult.
Prophecy concerning the year Just be
gun is by no means 50 easy as philoso-
phizing over the year Just ended. but al
least one thing IS already attested. and
that IS that general confidence exists
that the Improvement in business mani
tested in 1915 viii be continued even II
ii does not soon reach the dimensions
Of a boom. There are abundant reasons
for this hope. first among them perhaps
being the circumstances 10 which refer
enCe has already been made that a
great change has come over relations
throughout the world between the pro-
ducers and consumers OF foOdstuffs. the
supply OF foOdStufTs having become, II
not actually less. than the demand there
for. al least so much smaller that former
" as 10 invest agricultural occupation
in the United States with a degree Of
well-bsing not known before in the last
thirty years.
There Is TO be no Presidential campaign
for four years to come There Is much
talk now and win be IN the near future
Of the effect upon business Of the tariff
revision process that Is now being under
taken
The general indications are so numerous
and 50 strong That Il may be held IS q
positive certainty thai Jb4 year Iol9 viii
witness two important Developments in
the railroad world. one the-furtber ali
so-D-iou by the great railroad systems
OF smaller lines Ike the Wisconsin Cen
traL Chicago Great Western. Wabash and
Missouri Kansas and Texas. and the
other a making ever or new birth for
such larger railroad properties as the
Erie. s.. Louis and San Francisco, Mis-
souri, Pacific. and even the New York
Central
Not TO 20 into details. II may be said
that with the conclusion Of the Erie Rail
road Conpsny's "cyt-off' made around
Port Jervis. and Of another similar work
in the Genesee River country. the Erie
viii have q through line 10 Chicago which
viii be as regards grade as good as that
OF any other trunk line: and with the
Erie operated in the future with a view
to its own advantage and not that
its competitors. the prospect Of the COM
pany becomes bright