The Washington herald., 1909-01-01
.DUN'OYEARLYREPORT
Early Part OF 1908 Saw Busi-
ness at Standstill.
POLITICS IS A BIG FACTOR
Uncertainty as 20 Crops Also Caused
More or Less Depression fer the
First six TOnths, but Recovery
Was Prompt After the Election.
Money Market Now Good.

In a lengthy commercial review Of the
conditions in the United States during
1905, r c. Dun & Co make the follow
ing comments:
Recuperative powers disclosed by com
merciaI and financial interests in the
United States during 1905 were beyond
the hopes OF the most sanguine. The
year opened with everything at a low
ebb, and confidence was so badly shaken
that undertakings were abandoned until
the number OF unemployed rose above
all records since the panic OF 1885. Idle
ness was so general that the previous
years net immigration Of over 100000
changed 10 an excess Of emigrauts in
1878. So as 70 all measures OF business,
the early part OF the year comparing
most adversely with similar figures in
1907. while the closing months marked
recovery 50 great that not only did the
comparisons with the previous year show
gains. but IN many cases there was iul-
proyement over 1906 As usual, the Sc
cUrity market showed the earliest evi-
dence Of betterment. the average OF the
sixty most active railway shares rising
81. or about IS Pc cent General condi-
tions did not make any such gain. but
Wall street always discounts the future,
and the preceding fan IN securities was
disproportionabIe 20 losses IN other d.
rectons.
When Il was seen that no further set
hack threatened. trade gradually in
increased. and growing confidence brought
renewal OF interest in work projected
prior 10 October. 1871 However. there
were two factors that still produced eau
tion-uncertainty as 70 crops, and poll
tics Not until late in 1903 were the peo-
PIE. as a whole. satisfied on these two
points, although q large majority antici-
pated both events Sufficiently 20 begin
work some time before the election. or
the final official figures Of farm products.
which proved to exceed all previous rec
Crds ia value. Progress was also re-
tarde6 somewhat by lack OF rain tnat not
only caused much uneasiness Is 20 agri-
culture. but low water IN the streams in-
terrupted work at the mills and traffic on
the rivers. while forest fires did much
damage Nevertheless. all obstacles have
been overcome. and the year closed with
mills reopening. while money was abun-
dant and credits readily granted. FeE
records were established IN 1sS. but the
present rate OF accelerstinn suggests that
the nation may resume tEe stse-rmeat
of new high water marks IN 1879
Trade in Metal.
RecuperatIon from a setback IS always
very slow in the ron and steel industry,
just az IL feels a depression in trade
more slowly than most other oca1ps-
tions Thus the crisis Of October, 1907,
did not Immediately bring about an ez-
tenslve curtaument OF production and
the recover that has been IN evidence
elsewhere most o. the year 1878 did not
materially improve iron and steel con3i-
tions until the last quarter The closing
months of 1908 " messed a regular rate
4 OF Increase in pig iron production OF about
Per cent monthly. and the new year
viii start out with a striking improve
ment in weekly output as compared with
the 5152 tons on January T. 1S0S. that
was the smallest monthly record in many
years. with TIE single exception Of JanU-
ary. 1904 Prices of pig iron and steel
products declined during the midsummer
season Of Gullness. but have since re-
covered % within a small margin Of the
figures prevailing a year age
again the total value OF farm products
established a new high record reaching
$50. .011509 in 1865. according 10 Official
estimates. Il Is particularly gratifying
IN a year OF general contraction 70 ind
one Of the largest classes Of people in
the country actually receiving more
money than ever before This Is not
due to a larger quantity Of farm products.
however, but % the high level OF prices
The yield OF hay and sugar were above
all records, and u IS probable that fnal
returns VIII aisc include a new high
water mark for the quantity Of cotton,
but both sold at lower quotations than
in 1907, the difference in hay being s. per
ton and in cotton 8 per bale Cotton
has risen TO second place II value. while
hay is just able 70 hold its position above
wheat. but had TO give way TO cotton
Corn. OF course. Is still much the most
valuable crop. Wheat has maintained q
very high level Of prices. largely be-
cause Of scarcity abroad
Cotton held al a fairly good price dur
ing the early months OF the season. Then
il was evident that not only s-oUld con-
. sumption be severely curtailed By the
suspension Of work done at domestic
mills. but foreign spinning was retarded
by a stubborn labor dispute in Ian
cashire, and simultaneously Il became
obvious that a banner crop was almost
certain Efforts 10 distribute speculative
holdings served 20 accelerate the down
ward tendency OF quotations. and sales
were made at ar average Of S14 a bale
less than at the corresponding date last
year This stimulated consumption both
here and abroad. although the latest
statement Of exports shows that the gain
Of a few thousand bales in quantity for
the month Of November was accompanied
by a loss of $12,5e00o0 IN valns- as com
pared with the same month last year.
because Of an average decline Of cents
a pound in export price.
Readjustments In Cotton.
In view OF the depression which settled
over all branches Of trade at the end Of
1907. it was only to be supposed that the
dry goods industry would suffer with
others. Readiustments in cotton goods
we're frequent and radical during the
year, with the net result that prices at
the close are considerably lower than
at the beginning Of the year. though not
at the low point which all classes OF
merchandise touched during the period.
It has been a difficult market for both
buyer and seller during almost all the
twelve months The purchaser has not
possessed that confidence which war
ranted freedom Of operations, and which
caused his withdrawal at a tine when
his presence would have created firmness.
but which brought about a weakness and
q degree of decentralization from which il