The San Francisco call., 1909-10-13
MCCARTHY BASES
CONFIDENCE ON
PUSH PROMISES
Expects TenderIoin Vote and the
Herrin Machine to Land
His Election
By GEoReE A. VAN SMITH

ny GEORGE A. VAN SMITH
That P. H. McCarthy's confidence of
his success at the polls on November
Is based almost entirely upon the belief
that a delivery OF the republican
push" and tenderloin vote to him by
the Herrin machine leaders and an
Independent republican slump to Le
land viii permit him TO slide between
the two q winner is shown by the in
teresting mathematical forecasts made
by some of the men identified with the
Mccarthy campaign.
HOW THEY FIGURE 1T
While Mccarthy and those closest
10 him in the mana cement of his cam
paign have not INDUCED themselves in
figures, that is, beyond claiming
clear majority Of all the votes cast,
the Mccarthy boosters in the know
can use the campaign pencil as skill
fully as the cheerfulest old optimist
that ever figured Willie Hearst into
the White House. They dope il out
that Mccarthy stands to win by any
thing up TO half of the whole vote
and are prepared 10 prove with pencil
and paper that the worst the advance
agent Of peace and plenty can get is
a plurality of $500 over Crocker, to
whom they concede the place money.
of it,:
The whole -registeration is in round
numbers $1,000; republican, $4,000;
democratic. $4,000: union labor. 1l,000;
declined 10 state Affiliations, 5000: So
cialist, approximately 1890; prohibi-
tionists. doodle dees and good govern
ment league. 1000. Based on the
average OF experience not less than 25
per cent Of the whole registration will
De represented in the general election
shrinkage.
REPU BLICAN SHRINKAGE
Less the probable shrinkage. the
maximum estimate of the whole vote in
November is approximately $4,000. di-
vided. according TO the registration. as
follows: Republican. $4,000; demo-
cratic, I3,500; union labor $500. But
say the Mccarthy mathematicians be-
fore the republican total becomes a
basis for anything like accurate COM
putauons, IL must be subjected TO
further shrinkage. There must be
subtracted from it the 1900 union labor
party men who registered as repub-
licans for primary purposes only, ac-
cording 10 their we'll established Gus
tom. That done. they start with an ap-
parent republican vote Of 80, 200, which
II rounded up at the polls would be
quite sufficient for Crocker's purposes.
The 900 taken bodily out of the re-
union labor calculators, not subject to
the usual shrinkages since it is a host
which votes always and as needed.
With this vote returned to Mccarthy,
according to the Mccarthy estimators.
he starts where he finished two wears
ago. or with 1880.
To this is added the tenderloin no
party vote. which is being rounded up by
Jerome Bassity. Jimmy Lestrange and
their lesser Barbary coast lieutenants.
Mitchell Of the NJ and NJ is captain Of
the uptown tenderloin forces and to-
gether with the wide open" advocates
they are collectively to deliver a neat
5000 TO the Mccarthy nestegg. Casey
is not credited with much, but the ac-
cession Of his organization and what
II can reach, is counted for another 500.
Then John d. DAILY, the milkman,
Herrin lieutenant in the thirty-fifth:
Johnny Lynch's men in the thirty-sec-
Ond; Budgy Nelson and Louis Stroll
former Herrin legislators and water
front employees, together with the big
business representatives in the forty
first, fortieth and thirty eighth dis
tricts, are TO account for the delivery
II a push" and silk stocking repub-
ican vote Of $500 to the peace and
prosperity mayor. Altogether that
gives Mccarthy a nice little total of
something like 25, 500 votes and reduces
the republican total to %, 900 before the
anticipated slump Of the Independents
il taken into consideration.
Just 70 show their conservatism. the
Mccarthy estimators deliver so per
cent Of the republican vote cast for
MauZy at the primaries to Leland and
the job is done. The transfer of 5000
independent republican votes to the
democratic candidate gives him a total
Of nearly 10000 The same transfer
reduces Crocker's total to q, 900. and
Mccarthy, with 25.5O0, has an edge of
$500.
The difficulty attending proof of the
Mccarthy figures becomes apparent
when the disposition of the independ-
ent republicans is taken into consider
alton. They are reasonably familiar
with the work being done by the Her
rim machine republicans supporting
Mccarthy. and they realize that the
defeat of Mccarthy depends upon their
support of William Crocker, the candi-
date Of their own party, nominated in
a fair fight at the primary polls. Their
leaders indorsed Crocker's candidacy,
and from the day of his Endorsement
by the municipal league of independent
republican clubs they have been work
ing Loyalty for the republican candi-
date and for the success of the republi-
can party in the state next year, in
spite Of machine attempts TO drive them
out OF lle party TANKS anu LncISDy IN
sure the election of Mccarthy.
While the union labor party candi
dates are puzzling over their side of
the Crowley question some Of the man
ayers Of the republican campaign are
doing stunts in lightning calculations
TO determine whether the Mccarthy
Introduction for Crowley are being
paid for with republican votes or high
tenor songs, samples of which Crowley
has exhibited for the edification of the
republican campaign committee.
While the union labor candidates
and republican managers are trying
10. solve the puzzle according to their
several lights the intimacy of Nc
Carthy and Crowley indicates either
that Crowley has been stung severely
by the nonpartisan bug or that Nc
Carthy is developing an ear for i'm
pressionistic vocal music. OF course,
there can be no double cross politics
in the relations of Mccarthy and Crow
ley. Mccarthy has promised to elect
the union labor ticket from top to
bottom" And Crowley has told the
republican campaign committee. which
he expects TO help elect him, that he
has Travelled the town over and failed
to find that any one save a few in
teresteo persons We're going IN vo+a