Omaha daily bee., 1909-01-07
PREDICTING EARTHQUAKES.
A Realm of Prophecy Into which
Science Seeks an Entrance.
New York Tribune.

New York Tribune.
Last weeks catastrophe in the Mediter-
ranean has revived a discussion of the
possibility OF foretelling earthquakes. How
far any warning of such a disaster is
likely to be needed is perhaps open to ques-
ton, but the feasibility of giving one GER
tair " deserves consideration. With in
creasing knowledge concerning the causes
Of seismic disturbance. perhaps a trust
worthy forecast will some day be practic-
able. The utmost that conservative geo.
logists are willing to say today is that GER
tain we'll defined regions are much more
susceptible than others. but to determine
just when the forces at work will manifest
themselves is another matter.
There is also something like agreement
concerning The causes of earthquake. 1t
is conceded that a great many Of these
shocks are due to stresses set up in the
crust OF the earth. One group of experts
attribute the stresses to the generation OF
vast quantities of steam by the leakage of
water into the heated interior; another to
the shrinkage of the earth in consequence
of radiation; still another to the transfer
of material from one region to another,
and a fourth to astronomical influence.
No one of the first three explanations of
the internal strain would afford much
help In fixing the time when an outbreaks
might be expected, but the last would. II
it were correct.
The notion thai a tide in the molten in
terror OF the globe is raised by the sun and
moon has long had a few adherents.
Among them was a Frenchman, Alexis
Percy, who made a comparison between
the dates OF 1900 earthquakes and the oc-
casions when the moon was in the right
,,oaifton ko oxarf fba StrOuopst mill HE
figures showed what seemed to be a
trifIing preponderance about PA per cent?
of favorable lunar dates over tine unfavor-
able ones. On limiting his study to south
ern Italy he found a slightly greater pro-
portion. Unfortunately, however. a COM
patriot OF Percy, Delaunay by name, fol-
lowed up the inquiry so as to include 140,-
900 earthquakes, and found that the excess
Of shocks when the moon was in the right
position over those when It was in the
wrong position "dwindled away to almost
nothing" according to Major Dutton.
Prof. T. A. Jaggar OF the Massachusetts
Institute OF Technology, who has faith in
the doctrine referred to, calls attention to
the fact that the destruction of Messina
occurred on one of the earthquake dates
pre-announced by another geologist, Mr..
Frank A. Perret. The coincidence is strik-
ing, Dul SnOulu not Dc interpreted hastily,
seismologists may be led by it to re-ex-
anime the evidence for and against the
lunar tide theory, but until it can be more
completely established than it was by NJ.
Delaunay the world will be justified in
regarding it with skepticism, and in hop.
ing that a better basis for forecasts will
yet be found.
Perhaps a useful clue has been afforded
by the well known Japanese student of
earthquakes, DR.. Omorl. He has expressed
the belief that great shocks are preceded
by minor ones in the region above the
seat of the disturbance, OF course. IL
would be necessary to distinguish between
tremors which possessed significance and
those which had none. However, IL a way
could be found to do so-and the attain
ment OF the result does not seem alto
gether impracticable-the him may lead to
a safer system Of prediction than any yet
suggested.