The Montgomery advertiser., 1909-12-20

Ever since 1903, when the Southern
spectators won their nrst great sue
cess In the ight for high prices against
the New York bears by receiving all
the cotton In the New York stock on
contract and then demanding more. the
South has studied cotton market con-
ditions along broader lines.
Prior to that time only the higher
type Of professional trader was in posi-
tion to ferret out the cause and antici-
pate the course Of important price
movements. Now many men whose in
terest In cotton II that Of the business
man dependent upon the general pros
perity find themselves In position to
analyze not only cotton crop condi-
tons and the relationship Of supply
to demand, but the drift signincancs
and advantages to be gained from the
south's domination OF the worlds raw
cotton supply. The monster value Of
such education and enlightenment is
at this time beyond computation and
IL realizable in part only when leading
economists and thinkers not allied with
the cotton trade come to the front and
point the way to greater profits and
more general prosperity for all classes
of people living In the cotton belt
Mr.. Gordon s. orme, wealthy rice
merchant of this city. deep thinker.
ana an unusually we'll informed man.
In an article just prepared for Southern
publication. lays bare many facts wor-
thy OF serious consideration. He says;
Fortune stands Mt Gates.
"It appears to the writer that for
tune Is at last knocking at the gates OF
the Southern States. and to let the pres
emit situation pass without thorough
study by all those Of the South, APP
pears to the writer to be nothing short
,k nf n
well as her Intelligent citizens who
have the interests of the section In
which they live at heart. Steady high
prices for cotton mean more to the
South than legislation could accom-
plish In the next 100 years.
Judging from conversations with
many Of my friends, I, myself. while
not connected in any manner with the
cotton business-but always taking an
ignorant of the true conditions. or else
many others are.
According to Mr.. Hester's report of
last season, the Southern mills alone
actually consumed 2,560,000 bales. re-
gardless of the fact that 216 mills. out
of a total of 7s6. were, on account of
the panic, one to two months late In
starting, and their present capacity is
now estimated at 100000. The total
consumption for all Of the United States
mills, last year. being 5,os0,o00; the to-
tai consumption of all foreign mills OF
American cotton was 8.0s700o or q
grand total OF i5,157.000 bales.
ION the first of September, the esti-
mated mills stocks carried over in the
United States were 100000. The aver
age monthly consumption last year. in
the United States, was 42i.6ee, and as
the mills at large through the North
and many sections of the South can
hardly figure on securing new cotton
before October, before new supplies ac-
tually reach the mills in any quantity.
the apparent carryover was absolutely,
nothing. which was the reason spot
cotton became SO short, last summer,
at the tail end of the season and scored
such heavy advance in the fact of the
largest crop on record. The average
monthly consumption last year by for
eign mills was 674,760. and the appar-
emit carryover by these mills on the frat
of September was 100000. or about
six weeks supply.
Old Crop Exhausted.
Now, as a matter of fact. before
any quantity of cotton can reach the
foreign and continental mills, II would
average at least the middle of October
before they could count on getting
new supplies, SO this apparent carry
over by the mills was entirely exhaust
ed before they could receive new cot
ton.
- sat the, beginning of last season all
business was greatly depressed. on ac-
count of the panic OF the year previous,
and a large amount of labor was uneni-
ployed, which condition does not exist
today, and as the entire world, SO to
speak, is on the crest Of prosperity.
the masses at large could well AFFORD
at present to pay higher prices than
last year with less Inconvenience. On
account of the higher prices of grain
in be West and all manufacturers do
ingk successful business In the East at
present, the buying power OF the Unit
ed States is such that an advance OF
small per cent. on manufactured goods
will have no effect upon the consump-
ton, and. personally, believe the mills
of this country will consume, this year.
at least 100000 bales regardless of
prices; but for the sake of argument,
let us say the United States mills this
year consume only $500, 200.
According to Hester's report. De-
cember 10, the mills of the United
States have taken 1,727.000 and. there
fore, have yet to secure 2,773,OO0 to
equal an extremely short supply. We
have exported 1895, 900 and, therefore.
there only remain available for the bal
ance of the world 2.827,0o0. making a
total available supply for the world
this year of 6,122.000, against their
takings last year of 8,5S6,000. 1t must
be remembered that this small sup
ply is not to carry the mills until the
first of September, but the foreign mills
from about the middle of October to
the first of November, and the United
states mills from the middle of Sep
TENDER to the first Of October before
new supplies will be available; SO 1t Is
absolutely necessary on the first OF
September, every season, for the mills
to show a reasonable carryover.
Bnsed ON Government Report.
These figures are based, of course,
upon the Governments estimate OF tho
crop, which agrees with the writer
views; yet II the Government were
400. 900 bales in error. these figures
would not be changed, because before
this year passes the average weight OF
the bales will be fully per cent. short
of last year, while the spinning quail
ity Of the cotton Is easily per cent.
inferior to what II was last year. MAX
ing a total of per cent. or 100000
bales to be deducted from the Govern
ment's present estimate, to be equal 10
the same number OF bales OF last sea-
sons crop.
"While the Liverpool market at pres
emit is not much higher than the Amer
lean markets, If the American mills
continue sleeping, 1t is apparent before
this year passes. heavy purchases Will
likely be made In Liverpool for ship
ment back to the States, in which case
our market will remain much higher
than Liverpool all through the spring
and summer.
.1T a,d +ha oanaraI impregsion to be