The Birmingham age-herald. [volume] (Birmingham, Ala.) 1902-1950, 1909-07-18
STOCKS ARE ABOUT
At TOP PRICES
Some Few issues May Run
Higher or Lower
INTEREST MAY GO HIGHER
Crop Prospect for the Year Tends
Toward Half a Billion or a Bill
lion Dollars Increase In
In Value.
BY w. G. NICHOLAS.

nous ana long continued ACTIVITY. ESpe-
cially Is this true with the railroad equip
ment stocks. At the same time there Is
no disposition on the part of the great
multitude of holders of l.-gh priced rail-
road stocks to get out,
1t Is only the professional element that
shows symptoms of timidity. and of hav-
ing had enough of the bull game for the
time being. There is large and impor-
tant element composed of very rich men
representing great Individual fortunes
and pooled interests which are carrying
heavy lines of securities with money Dor
rowed at low rates from banks and
trust companies. This stuff comes out on
the rallies, a market feature which is be-
lieved by many to foreshadow extensive
distribution by the important interests
in anticipation of a hardening money
market in the early autumn.
Indeed, there Is very good reason to
look for higher interest rates as the last
half OF the year advances. From the
present outlook the country will have
crops worth in money from $5O0,000,0O0 to
81, ZOO, 900, 900 more than last year. Where
there is a possibility of shortage in
amount, as in cotton, the deficiency in
that respect is more than likely to be
made up in higher prices. In other di-
reotons it is reasonably safe to estimate
largely Increased production, especially
in the case of corn and the hay crops.
The unfavorable weather in the east
and south is having decided effect on
commodity prices, but as yet the refiec-
ton on stocks Is not important, although
the passive influence of this factor is
against further advance. With reason
able certainty of a largely increased
need for money for crop moving pur-
poses a tendency to curtail large borrow
ing flor speculative purposes Is only to
be expected.
tod nd
be mentioned the steadily increasing re-
uuirements for the industries The de-
mand from this quarter is becoming
more and more manifest. BY October it
is safe to say that the great bulk or
manufacturing Industries will be fully
| back to normal and with that reinstate-
| ment of activity an enlarged volume or
| merchandising may be looked for
| That, too, will call for more money.
| Great numbers of ambitious promotion
| schemes are coming to head, which
| will call for the investment of vast ag-
| gregate sum. And then there must be
| taken into account the steady drain or
gold for export Just why the gold
| should be going out of the country in
| anywhere near its present volume is one
| of the things not easily explained.
| The international trade balance con-
| tinues to run strongly in our favor and
| there is nothing to show that the old
|
country any considerable quantities Of
| American stocks and bonds The tourist
! army Is rather more numerous than usual
| and seems to be spending more than the
! normal amount of money on the other
| side. That, however, does not give sur
! ficient excuse for the tide of gold ship
| ments Europeward.
The reasonable explanation is that our
| financial institutions are strengthening
their credits and increasing their bal
| ances abroad By so doing they can
| reduce the visible surplus in the money
centers Of the United States, thereby Gre
ating a deceptive appearance of dimin-
ished stocks and still keep available
| large funds to be drawn against in case of
| need. 1t is almost as easy these days for
| international bankers to draw on foreign
| balances as it is on home deposits.
| Mr. Morgan's return, which Is scheduled
| for the 22d, will be followed by all kinds
| of happenings, according to the gossip of
the street 1t Is gravely insisted by the
| Stock exchange specialists in steel stocks
| that at the July meeting of the directors
| of the big corporation, on the 9th in
| stant action will be taken looking to an
increase in dividends on the common.
This assumption is probably entirely
| unwarranted, although nothing which
| may be done in that direction will be
| in favor of liberal policy toward the
| stockholders of that corporation, and now
| that the conservative influence represent
| ed in the person of the late Fl. II. Rogers
is passing away it is not improbable that
| stockholders will fair better in the mat
| ter of dividends.
| The company is now earning enough to
| justify an increase in the common and
nobody on earth believes that the
| amount Of net will be less for many
years to come. Some estimates by really
| conservative specialists put net earnings
| for the last half of 1909 applicable to
| common dividends above II per cent and
| for 1910 anywhere from IS to 30 per cent,
| this on the basis of a completed Gary
| plant and a productive capacity of A.,
| 800, 900 tons.
A total considerably in excess of $780,
| OO0,O 900 has been puts Unto the property
| since its organization out of earnings and
| shareholders are beginning to demand
| that a part of this amount and all i'm
portant future expenses for new plant be
charged to capital account and they
given a show at the amount realized
from the proceedings. Talk something
along these lines has been rife for a good
| while, although ignored in all official dis
cussion, so far as known. 1t may or
may not have influence in shaping the
future policy of the corporation.
1t Is looked upon as day lost that
does not carry In the news bulletins au-
thoritative announcement of the further
convalescence of Mr.. Hartman. From the
frequent recurrence of Mr.. Harriman's
complete RESERVATIONS to health and the
activity of his convalescences he must
have been very much sicker man than
was admitted. A man cannot travel such
a long route toward recovery at so lively
a gait without going a good ways. But
really, fippancy aside, there Is a real anx-
iety on account of Mr.. Harriman's con-
dtion and genuine hope that he may be
fully restored and be able TO give per-
sonal direction to his enormous interests
on his return to America.
Who takes the place of the tens of thou
sands of rich people in New York and
other Atlantic coast cities who go abroad
every summer? This is the question often
heard. There seems to be just as many
people in evidence, and almost as much
money spent as when the tourists are
here. The answer is found In the fact
that every summer great army of pleas
ure-seekers and rest-takers from the
south and southwest pour into New York