New-York tribune., 1909-01-04
pRFDLrTLNG EARTHQUAKES.

Last weeks catastrophe in the Mediterranean
has revived a discussion of the possibility or
foretelling earthquakes. How far any warning
Of such disaster is likely to be Needed is per
haps open TO question but the feasibility OF CIV
ing one certainly deserves consideration. with
increasing knowledge concerning the causes or
seismic disturbance, perhaps a trustworthy fore
cast will some day be practicable. The utmost
that conservative biologists are willing TO say
to-day is that certain well defined regions are
much more susceptible than others, but to de
termine just when the forces at work will mani
fest themselves IS another matter
There is also something like agreement con
cernng the causes of earthquakes. 1t is con
ceded that a great many of these shocks are
due to stresses set up in the crust Of the earth
One group of experts attribute the stresses to
the generation of vast quantities of steam by
the leakage of water into the heated interior :;
another to the Shrinkage of the earth in conSe-
quenCe of radiation; still another to the transfer
Of material from one region to another, and Il
fourth 10 astronomical influence No one Of the
first three explanations Of the internal strain
would afford much help in fixing the time when
an outbreak might be expected. but the last
would. If 1t We're correct.
The notion that tide in the molten interior
of the globe is raised by the sun and moon has
long had a few adherents. Among them was a
Frenchman. Alexis Percy, who made a COM
parison between the dates of 1900 earthquakes
and the occasions when the moon was In the
right position 10 exert the strongest pull. His
figures showed what seemed TO be Il trifng pre-
ponderance (about 2l3 per cent? Of favorable
lunar dates over the unfavorabe ones On lin
iting his study TO Southern Italy he found a
slightly greater proportion. Unfortunately,
however. a compatriot Of Percy, Deaunay by
I,
10000 earthquakes. and found that the excess
Of shocks when the moon was in the right posi-
ton over those when 1t WAS in the wrong posi-
ton "dwindled away 70 almost nothing" ac-
cording to Major Dutton.
Professor 7. A Jaggar, of the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, who has faith IN the
doctrine referred TO, calls attention 10 the fact
that the destruction Of Messina occurred on one
of the earthquake dates preannounced by an
other geoogist, Mr.. Frank 4. Perret. The CO
incidence Is striking. but should not be infer
preted hastily. SeismolOgsts may be led by It
to re-examinp the evidence for and against the
lunar tide theory. but until 1t can he more com
pletely established than It was by NJ. Delaunay
the world will be justified in regarding it with
skepticism, and in hoping that better basis
for forecasts will yet be found
Perhaps a useful clew has been afforded by
the well known japanese student Of earth,
quakes. Or. Omori. He has expressed the belief
that great shocks are preceded by minor ones
in the region above the seat Of the disturbance.
OF course II would he necessary 10 distinguish
between tremOrs which possessed significance
and those which had none. However. if a way
could he found to do sO-and the attainment Of
the result does not seem altogether impracti-
cable-the hint may lead TO n safer system Of
prediction than any yet suggested