New-York tribune., 1909-12-20
MONEY AND BUSINESS.


to attract an active outside demand for
securities. Wall Street is looking for
ward TO a public inquiry for investment
issues following the January interest
and dividend disbursements but the
larger number of people have their
funds so well employed in ordinary bust
ness channels that surplus income from
investments is more likely to be rein
vested in industrial enterprises than in
stock market speculation, especially as
most securities are selling at advanced
quotations, while there is at present no
sign of the development of a period Of
easy money. The hopeful feeling that
prevails in financial circles. however, and
the absence Of uneasiness over the atti-
tude OF the Washington administration
on railway and general corporation af
fairs naturally induce the well founded
idea that stability in prices will mark
the course of market dealings for
months to come
End OF the year requirements and a
generally active demand for money
maintain rates for loans at relatively
high levels. while abnormal strength I'm
sterling exchange and gold export pos
sibilities also tend to increase bank
profits. Apparently there is no danger
Of stringency in the money market, but
the idea held in some quarters that after
the middle of January accommodation
will be available at cheap figures is not
based upon an intelligent Interpretation
Of current indications or upon the known
needs of the business community. AC-
tivity in our industries calls for large
sums OF money in the form of credit,
and in view OF the small bank reserves
above the legal level and the probability
Of shipments Of gold TO Europe the out
look does not favor low rates for bor-
rowers. The railroads will be active
factors in the money market in the new
year, as large new capital issues are
pending, and, furthermore, speculative
needs promise a considerable strain on
bank resources at time of expanding
mercantile operations. Though gold ex-
ports in the current year have amounted
TO more than S1O3, 100000. the interua-
tional balance is still against this coun-
try, a reflection of which is presented
in conditions that permit London 10 set
tie its obligations in South America at
the expense of the local market
Evidence of the sound character of
present business expansion is found to a
pronounced extent in bank clearings and
railroad earnings. which now compare
with a period year ago, when our in
dustries were beginning to make prog
ress along normal lines. For the week
just closed the volume Of payments
through clearing houses for all cities
showed a gain of per cent. against a
gain in the same time last year over
1907 Of 80 per cent while for the first
two weeks of December railroad earnings
were 20 per cent heavier than in 1908,
when A gain of little more than s per
cent was reported over the year before.
Holiday trade is active at all centres
That the people have money to spend is
shown not only in the big sales at retail
stores but also in the enormous imports
of merchandise. which in the month of
November broke all past records and ex-
ceeded the total for November, 1908. by
more than S36.00O0 900. There is no lack
of confidence in the theory that the new
year will witness the greatest increase
in industrial activity ever recorded in the
history of the country despite the high
prices for materials. and the high cost of
living Business men are convinced that
high prices have come to stay. and they
are adjusting their operations to that
basis
In the drygoods market merchants be
lieve that business will expand at price
levels based on the rise in the market
for raw materials, and they point to the
fact that already advances have been
made in certain lines as a consequence
of the sustained quotations for cotton.
Speculation in cotton futures is less ac-
tive. and spinners are adhering to the
policy of hand to- mouth buying, while
curtailment in production is spreading
not only in this country. but abroad as
well. Government figures on the cereal
crops of 1909 show a corn harvest of al
most 1O4. O0O 600 bushels larger than that
gathered in 1908, an increase OF 72.-
5S7.00 bushels in wheat and a gain OF
more than 200. 600 900 In oats Receipts
of wheat however. are light. and prices
for options are higher owing to the
strength of the cash situation, which is
ports, the outward movement last week
showing loss of $4,000 bushels as
compared with the corresponding time a
year ago. World shipments show a fall
ing off, while the worlds visible supply
for the week just closed presents a de-
cline of 100000 bushels. Argentina's
exportable surplus wheat is placed at
only 74,0OO.0OO bushels which. of course.
tends TO lift prices here. Trading in
flour is quiet. high prices at the mills
seriously interfering with new business
A seasonable contraction in the de-
mand for finished steel products is re-
ported. The outlook for active buying
in the first quarter of 1910 is promising
Prices for wire products have been ad-
vanced. but otherwise no change is noted
in quotations. with a general tendency
the part of manufacturers not TO al
low periods of special pressure for ma
terials TO induce advances reported. Pig
iron II easier. II - practically settled