The Washington times., 1909-05-23
FUTURE Of STOCKS
IS VERY UNCERTAIN
Prices Are Admittedly High,
But Control Is Very
Strongly Held.
PUBLIC HOLDS OFF
FOR BIG REACTION
Market Manipulators May Let Go.
Enormous Expansion of
Loans.

Loans.
NEW YORK, May 23.-It is a rather
difficult matter TO predict the future of
the stock market under ordinary condi-
tons, with anything like Il reasonable
degree of accuracy. But conditions are
not ordinary. and, therefore, the task
is doubIv hard. Under ordinary condi-
tio.ls nine out of ten prophets would
take the bear side of the trade and for
good rsasons-perhaps reasons that are
sufficient TO justify the prediction that
decline is now in order and within the
proba bihties CT the near future. ON TINS
there is nothing new except the Oft
| repeated story that prices are at the
| top on the great majority of stocks, and
those that are under the record are
grating very closely upon il. Adm tilted
| ly there is a vast Improvement in bust
ness, but the number of idle box cars
| has materially increased in the asst
thirty days. This country has developed
and demonstrated again and again its
ability to raise big crops, but just at
present there is some question as TO the
size OF the harvest of 1903. The public
was never more out of the stock mar
| ket than II is at this time. The big men
| Of New York, the very men who took
stocks when they were on the bottom,
] still have them or a large part OF their
original holdings, and attempt on their
part to market large quantities would
| be followed by a break in value al
! though il is believed that the INSIDERS -
I as they are usually termed, have dis
/ posed of comparatively large amounts
/ of stocks on particularly strong spots.
/ It is also a fact that the national banks
| of the United States, according to the
/ last report TO the Comptroller of the
| Currency. in April, showed loans OF
I S427, 600 more than in the year 1907,
when everything was going at full
| speed. But cash reserves have increas ed
| during the same period So, 000.0Oo. This
| vast expansion Of loans is explained By
/ the great movement in stocks. by the
| taking from Europe American loans
| placed there years age and the activity
in the West.
Bull Talk Rampant.
But talk is rampant wherever the
market is a subject for conversation.
The West can see nothing but high
/ prices for crops and prosperity for agri-
| culturlists-ar else being safe. The
East has thrown off its gloom and the
starting up of furnaces and mills has
given hope OF better times. Both the
| great steel corporation and the indie
/ pendent companies are doing more bust
/ ness than for two years past, with in
/ dications that full producing capacity
/ will soon be in order. Money is stin
| easy, very easy, ~ on call; "a for Sc
! And yet in spite of all these favorable
| things the Street Is constantly predict
/ ing lower prices. And en- the theory
/ Either this IS true or we are to nave
new high levels for our securities. We
/ will see reaction, maintenance of
present high prices or q new level 10
| which we will have to grow accustomed.
The bulls are prediCt ting that the passing
of the tariff bill-nOw scheduled for
June 15-will mark the beginning Of the
| upturn that viii establish the new rec
1 Ords all through the list.
But who will buy the stocks? The
public, is the answer. But the public is
| waiting for the break, il has been wait
ing for a break in prices since the es-
: Establishment of the high prices. 1t has
left the market severely alone, but has
been sufficiently interested to study the
quotations. TO watch the boards occs-
1 sionally and TO look into the possibilities
| Of a further rise The theory Of the
| bulls Is that 10 point additional rise
from present prices Will bring the public
into the market and IL doesn't look good
from the market point OF view. 1t is
much more Ike market play FOR the
| insiders or the great combinations ct
ca pital that control the market, to LET
90, to permit a break OF 8 or 10 points
all along the line, in order to tempt the
public 10 come in and also to establish
| a moderate short account, for the bears
are ripe and would make a strong play
with a little encouragement, and the
market, II is to go much higher, needs
the help Of the short interest No one
questions the fact that the insiders OF
the big people can do what they viii
with stocks so long as they can have
all the cheap money they want and the
reports are so encouraging.
Steel Common a Leader
| We have seen during the last few days
the despised Steel common assume the
position OF market archaeological a
| few weeks ago and approaching dan
gerOusly near the 10 mark. II has been
I al, nd tod r.
ket with IT, The Steel Corporation has
| forced the investing world to consider
il as among the safest. saneSt, and best
managed corporations in the Street. ca
| pabIe of looking after itself versus all
the independents, and the preferred
stock has come to be an investment for
| estates, where hVe years ago the pears
| found nothing so attractive as play
| thing, nothing so much like dead ball
with scarcely rebound TO 1t.
| The past week has been important
The Atlantic Coast Line, Chesapeake
and Ohio. and the Calumet and Hecls
Copper Company have all Increased
their dividends. The death of II. II
| Rogers startled the Street with its sud.
market. The usual formula OF the Weel
was high prices in the morning anc
lower in the afternoon, and this was no
| changed ia the closing, for Saturday
morning session was decidedly strong
| the Coppers showing tone.
| Looking through the list, the fact tina
| the Hili STOCKS nave Deer SISuiA SIN
! while the rest of the market has beer
| rising, that many Of the cheap stocks
/ like st. Louis and Southwestern, st. Louis
! and San Francisco. and Rock Islandi
! are lOW-priCcd- These stocks with TIT
steels and irons and copper have beer
TO the fore in the last day or two anC
/ should do better
/ The market as a whole made little
| progress during the last week. Reading
/ Union Pacific, St Paul, and SoutheT1
! Pacific bull harder. The Government
suit against Hartman may oe an inf1u
ence in the near future.