The ranch. [volume] (Seattle, Wash.) 1902-1914, 1909-07-15

be mentioned to be UNDERSTOOD.
It can be seen at glance that it is
TO the interest of the apple buyer to get
abroad the report that the crop is large,
for that will tend to start the price
low at picking time. Then on the other
hand it is to the advantage of the grow
err to have the idea prevail that the
crop is short, for that will start the
sale of the crop at good prices. Now
it requires careful judgment to PICK
out the truth between these conflicting
interests. The growers are the bulls
and the buyers are the bears; the bulls
are trying to boost the price upwards,
the bears to pull it down. How can we
determine where the truth lies? Many
growers are poorly situated to judge
in such matters for they know but
little of the conditions prevailing over
the whole country. In his own To-
cation the crop may be short or it may
be large, but that will not determ-
inc the prices at picking time. 1t is
the size of the crop in the whole
United States and Canada that will
determine prices. The editor of this
department in the Ranch has much
better chance to know the condition
of the crop than the average grower
because we receive as exchanges the
fruit and trade journals from all parts
of the country. These are carefully
studied and the conclusions reached
will be given to our readers from time
to time.
7 want to give our readers some In
sight into the methods we must use
to get at the true conditions OF the
crop. First of all we must know when
of the states or sections of the coun-
try are the determining factors in such
questions. If it should be reported
truthfully that Minnesota for instance
has a bumper apple crop 1T would cut
no figure in deciding the size OF the
crop in the whole country, because
Minnesota, while raising a few line
apples, is not ranked as an apple Sec
ton. The same is true of Florida and
the Southern states generally. The
leading apple growing states are: Mis-
souri,, New York, Kansas, Virginia, Pen
sylvania, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and
Indiana. If bumper crop prevails
in these states the crop will be phe-
nomenally large regardless of what
the other states may have, while II
these states are short on apples, the
crop as a whole will be short. Then
another fact must not be overlooked,
and that is that it is too early in the
season to determin what the crop will
be at picking time The best we can
do is to give the prospect as it now
appears. The codling moth, scab, bitter
rot and other fungous diseases, along
with the effects of drought, hailstorms,
crr09t
damage to the growing crops.
Another thing that misleads in the
estimating the apple crop is the desire
to boom the country. To admit that
our part of the country has short
age in apples or peaches may affect
the prices of land. Let me give an
illustration: | have lying before me
a clipping from the Fruit Trade Jour
nal of New York in which is reported
that a certain Seattle man who has
land to sell in the Yakima valley has
"just returned from an extended trip
through the Yakima valley and Says
that the apple crop will probably be the
largest that section has ever had",-
that the peach crop of the valley, as
whole, will be at least an average
crop" Only yesterday I stated
to some of the leading fruit
growers of the Yakima valley
what this man had reported and they
said the apple crop would not be up to
the average, and that what was re-
ported about the peach crop is an I'M
qualified lie. We all know that there
will not be one percent of an average
peach crop The best informed men of
the country say that the apple crop
is short and that one of the apple buyer