The Fairmont West Virginian. (Fairmont, W. Va.) 1904-1914, 1908-02-19

from the States and territories nam
ed in the foregoing list, or 1888 in all.
But we shall surely be within reason
II we assume that on the first ballot
this great national belt of Republi-
can or probably or possibly Republi-
can States. gives him $50 votes. He
would still need about $50 for the
nomination. Where are these votes
to come from
New England It is now pretty well
understood will for the most part of
the convention he uninstructed and I'M
pledged. But this does not necessarily
mean anti-Taft. From all accounts
the Taft sentiment is stronger in New
England than sentiment for any 9th
er candidate Most of the political
leaders are either hostile or neutral
Nevertheless Taft is already assured
OF some votes from New England. and
1t is believed will gain more before
the convention meets.
Now it is well known that much
more than one.half of the South is for
Taft. In fact, he is to have nearly all
OF it. Florida South Carolina, North
Carolina, the greater part of Georgia
and AlabamG all of Tennessee and
Virginia, Mississippi and Texas and
Arkansas are for Taft. Kentucky is
for Fairbanks. There will be many
contesting delegates from the South.
Some one Is furnishing money for use
among the old crowd of colored poll
ticians. and large number Of these
gentry will be at Chicago demanding
seats on the warrant OF rump conven.
tons. Probably the national commit.
tee will make short shift of them and
the convention VIII sustain the com.
mittee. Both the committee and the
convention are pro-Roosevelt, pro-
Taft.
We are therefore justified in assum-
ing that on the first rell call fully 200
of the 2GG southern delegates will vote
for Taft. II only one-half of them
do so a second ballot will not be need
ed.
With 375 votes from the great cen.
trail belt and New England combined
Taft needs about 1875 more to win. The
distinctively southern States. have 266.
The five States with favorIte sons
have $50. If Taft could get only one
half OF the South added to the fore
going estimate he would have enough
without encroachIng upon the favor
lite son States or in other words on
the first ballot.
OF the fourteen votes from Connec-
ticut he is pretty sure OF ten and may
have all. OF the thirty-two from Mas.
sachusetts he may get ten or twelve
on the first ballot OF the eight from
New Hampshire, he already has five.
Vermont usually lands with the win
ner,S and there are eight votes which
may come to Taft. Maine and Rhode
Island are now uncertain.
At least the friends OF Taft count
upon twenty-five to thirty-fve of the
lightweight votes from New England
and hope for many more.
But suppose second ballot should
be necessary and always assuming
that The Roosevelt earthquake of
which men talk so much fails to
erupt? In the natural order OF things
the column OF votes 256 strong, held
by the five favorite sons. must dis
solve sooner or later. Not all can
stand out to the "last ditch" logical
ly some one OF them, Hughes or Knox
or Cannon or Fairbanks, must be chos-
en- to lead the opposition to the ad-
ministration. 1t is too early to say
who is to be the leader OF that move
ment. II 1t ever materializes, but since
coming East have heard more talk
Of Knox and Cannon and less of
Hughes. Fairbanks also has many
friends among the moderates.
The point is that If the opportunity
should arise all Of these 256 iavorIte
son votes cannot be delivered to any
one OF them. Indiana, Illinois, Wis
consin, we know, are Loyalty for their
State leaders, but cannot be deliver
ed" to any one else. Nor can all of
the Knox or Hughes votes be deliver
cd to Cannon, or Fairbanks, The
moment the 25G votes in the tavorite
son column begin to shift the leader
In the race, almost winner, inevita-
bly, gets enough votes from one or
other or the States to push him over
the line.
There is small probability that 1t
will come to this. Viewed in cold
blooded analysis, without any favor
Itilsm or colorIng whatsoever, the sit
uation promises nothing else than the
nomination OF Taft on the first ballot