The Washington times., 1908-10-14
Political Representations of
Victory for Him, IN
variably Qualified.
AIR OF UNCERTAINTY
AMONG REPUBLICANS
Possibility of Bryan Winning With
out New York Is Being
Freely Discussed.
BY ]. C. WELLIVER.

BY 7. c. WELLIVER.
NEW YORK, Oct 14-Bryan will
make, great gains, but not enough to
win. That IS the shortest summary
Of expert political opinion in this town
at this date.
But you can't tell what VIII happen
in the next three weeks. That is the
popular addendum.
The possibility Of the Democrats
eIectinE a President without New
York is more and more talked about
There is something strange in the
present reversal Of political form. In
Ohio. Indiana, and Illinois, according
TO all the political students who come
back here. the people all agree that
Bryan hasn't a ghost of a chance
without New York.
What's in the Air?
Here in New York they are talking
seriously about the possibility Of his
winning without this State.
Everybody wonders what 1t is that's
in the air. There's something. They
all admit Il.
It is recalled that ten days before
election four years ago, the Repub-
Iicau managers got panicstricken and
went out to make a tremendous hustle
for New York States electoral vote
They were seriously and honestly
worried.
And vet they were at that moment
being borne along on wave Of public
sentiment, which swept them over the
line with 100000 popular majority
three times as much as any president
had ever received
Is It any wonder that there is I'M
certainty now?
If James X. Jones were yet alive,
oven he would hesitate to make any
forecasts about this election Every
body agrees, IN the beginning, that
Taft viii probably be elected. all
right; and then the inevitable but
The Inevitable But"
But there are so many uncertain
ties. But there is the temperance is
sue in Ohio and Indiana. But there
is the La Toilette sphinx I'm WisCon-
sin But there Is the local fight in
New York. But there Is the bank
guarantee issue in Kansas and the
state pride factor in Nebraska. But
there is the pervading doubt as 20
where the labor vote viii land, and the
vague misgivings in both camps con-
corning the outworking of the prosper
ity and employment questions.
It seems, for instance, to be conceded
that all parties are for revision Of the
tariff. and that revision means revision
downward. Yet one stumbles on people
every day who think the method OF
tariff revision Is very much an issue.
These people are generally disposed 70
Organism on other issues. but sincerely
believe that good business Judgment
dictates that the tariff revision be COM
nitted 20 the friends Of the protective
policy, which means to them the Repub-
leans.
I should say. from conversations with
people who sustain all sorts OF Tela-
lions 10 manufacturing Industry, that
the tariR Issue. after AL. will influence
more votes 10 Taft than any one oyner
issue, so far as the manufacturing
East is concerned There seems 10 be
Il big element of people who lean
toward BryaniziRg the railroads and
destroying the trusts and swatting the
money power, who have a notion OF
personal dependence on the tariff, be-
cause the tariff makes business good.
In Concrete Form.
Take the tariff question ir a concrete
way. General Hancock said It was
largely local issue. and was laughed
Now everybody rather agrees he was
right Here is a case. There is one
Congressional district In New jersey
where the pottery industry is very large
and the pottery industry IS closely de-
pendent on protection The Democrats
are going, TO make a hot fight for the
district, which is normally close vyher
the tariff issue isn't involved: but the
other day. when their Congressional con
ventiOn was held IN that district, every.
body at all desirable mad declined Il
run-aH on the pottery issue-and a mar
was named by default. whom nobod,
cOnceives to have a chance at victory.
That district would stand revision
on everything except pottery; II would
not be shocked at the idea Of furthe
regulating the railroads; II doesn't lik
the wall Street domination a littl,
bit; but it's strong for keeping up thu
pottery schedules, and It guesses tina
they're more likely to be kept up 1
the Republicans do the revising.
Unemployed Vote.
And there's the unemployed vote II
general Some of it viii vote for
change on the fround that things couI,
nUl be any worse" But as election
grows nearer the impression that tn,
Republican party IS the real patron an'
guardian Of business seems to grow.
develops that a good many other peopl
will vote for what they consider tn
best chance to get business starte
again.
With the unemployed, It IS a contes
between the argument of desperation
which says Things couldn't be worse
and the argument OF hope. which says
They might be better" The Democrat
have the desperation end; the Repub
licans have the hope end. That's abOu
all there is to the unemployed question
The Indications point to a close victor
Of hope over desperation.