New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1908-10-17
POLL ELECTS TAFT
1000 VOTERS HEARD FROM.
"SuccesS" Magazine Polls It's Life
Subscribers end Forecasts
Republican Fictory.

Al interesting election forecast. compiled by Ed
ward z. Higgins ard based on information as 10
local conditions. received from more than eleven
thousand members OF THE Success Magazines"
soecal reference TO the probable results IN the
5osbtfuI states. published in the current num-
Der o. The Success Magazine" The figures tndi-
rate decisive victory for the Republican national
ticket giving Mr.. Taft 29s electoral votes. Mr..
Bryan lsl and putting p in doubt In describing
the way the forecast made, Success" says:
Perhaps the best proof OF non-partisan char
s--er is found II the politics OF our life subscTih-
lsrs as asoe1ained in the vote just taken In the
normally Republican states & majority Repub-
7iran and II the normally Democratic states a ma
+r-frv are Democratic Curiously enough. IN the
close states like Missouri and Kentucky. for ex-
ample the number Of life subscribers belong
4nr 70 TIE respective parties is nearly equal. IN
o.he- words Il has been made clearly evident by
ne ballot Just taken that our auxiliary board Of
lse subscribers Is almost perfectly representative
q the prevailing politics and opinion. OF the DIFF
te-e1t states Of the Union
Nov. the number OF he subscribers actually
members OF our board on September Is last. 10
whom our request for q vote was addressed.
-5S5. q whom probably s. per cent were voters
TIE total number OF votes actually received from
voters up TO and including October :, the date Of
.tis writing. when the polls were closed, was
100 Il IS clear, therefore. that nearly 30 per
cent q the number OF voters addressed actually
voted A better straw vote than this cannot pos
ion Of al voters addressed At the time taken.
IN the ballots prepared for the use Of our life
subscribers ne first asked the politics OF the voter
second. the question For what candidate do you
intend vote and third. How do you think
you- state Will &C. Il IN counting the ballots Of
e state we found that q larger percentage Of
zvove5 Republicans were intending to vote for
BRYAN than for Taft; and II. in addition the ma
jGrity O. the Independents were for Bryan as
against Tart Il became evident that there was
e drift toward Bryan The next step was. there
fore u determine whether this drift prob
ahlv sufficient TO vercorne IL the state the Roose-
ve- majority over Parker Of four years ago OF the
Mckinley majority over Bryan Of eight years ago
The Eral step vas to compare our own judg-
-1eur- based On the vote with the Judgment OF
cur subscribers themselves. as expressed il their
answers the third question. How 90 you think
your state vii 20? Il is a curious and interest
i1g fact that n practically every state these third
c1estion answers corroborated the indications Of
Tia vote n most striking manner Republicans
ard Democrats alike readily Concedinz their states
70 The opposition party. despite their own party
affiliations and intended votes. when the conditions
pointed that way.
AS result OF al the information thus obtained
Te have found i Impossible 70 doubt that in in
sPecruE and -abulating this vote We have been
boxing directly into the hearts Of the American
people
Commenting On the returns Success" says:
IN general way il may be said first that there
< absolutely evidence OF the Bryan landslide
predicted by some The soItdly Republican states
O. The past viii remain Republican the solidly
Democratic states Democratic
Contrary 10 our expectations there are no indi-
cations that New York even a doubtful state this
rear With Republican ma iority Of IA 90 in 1900
and 1900 in 800 evident that there must be
enormous change Of sentiment 70 produce a
political revolution our shows. the con
--arE out Per cent drift Of the Republican votes
u BRYAN while there is 4 drift OF Is per cent OF
Democratic votes 10 Taft, and Of the independent
guu- Independence League vote 80 per cent is for
Taft and - per cent for Bryan should stated
sc--1=-s II New York City (AIanhattanl. so that
CT vote IS only from the upstate sections. incud-
~. however. Brooklyn and Long Island We be
lave tha- New York State VIII be Republican.
We expected 70 find Indiana a decidedly doubtful
state. owing partly 70 the local strength Of Nj
ken he Democratic candidate for Tice-Presidert,
s-5 partly 70 the liking Of the state for Bryan To
CIT surprise. the vote. in addition 70 showing an
or=--- ming preponderznce OF actual Republican
voters. showed Republican drift TO Bryan Of only
ger cent while there was Democratic drift 70
Tar ~ Per cent The independent vote is. how
ever - ger cent for Bryan and % per cent for
Tai Altogether We cannot regard Indiana as
doubtful s-1-e as its Republican majority OF 1904
was no less 1han p GO while II 1900 in 1900
More nan 90 per cent Of our Democratic sub
s--b=-s corce6e The state 70 Taft. while less than
81 re- cent % our Republican subscribers conceoe
II 80 Bryan
Unless the efforts Of the spelbinders Of the re-
E1ec--ve party organizations, or the 'oonbshells
exploded in che -zst weeks Of the campaign prove
unusually effective il changing sentiment, II is our
best Information and Judgment that the results VIII
b as expressed in :he accompanying table;