New-York tribune., 1908-08-10
HONEY ANn BUSINESS.


broadened steadily, despite the absence of many
prominent operators. and each day last week
provided new high records for the year. while
the average of the sixty most active railway
stocks is more than 81 higher than IL was d
year ago. Considering the average decHne oi
about ID per cent in earnings, and contrae-
ton of similar magnitude in general business IL
is not surprising that many shreWd operators
consider the rise in prices excessive ana nave
taken a position the. short side OF the mar
ket AS a technical factor. however, this large
short account operates against itself, manlpu-
lators artificially advancing these stocks 10
force covering and the resultant pressure to
purchase has contributed largely to the recent
rise The element of greatest uncertainty at
the present time is just how far the snort ac-
count has been forced TO liquidate. There seems
to he an impression in financial circles that
prices must ultimately rise much higher, put IL
is also agreed that temporary setback ol
some magnitude is about due, and the cautious
trader is awaiting lower prices before purchas-
ing. while the outside investor turns his at
tentton TO bonds Undoubtedly the marketing
of crops will supply a large freight business,
and it is also probable that somewhat higher
rates will be secured by many roads, but thls
readjustment must come slowly, and prices OF
stocks discounting Improvement far aheao-
Easy money is maintained in the face of most
active speculation in stocks and gram can
loans being made at q Of L per cent last week.
which is a figure only once before touched IN
the month of August. Yet there is continued
evidence that bankers expect a heavy drain TINS
fall term accommodation ruling at per cent
for six months loans on Stock Exchange col
lateral and slightly more for long term com
mercial paper The usual reports are re-
ceived from the interior to the effect that no as
sistance will be needed in moving the crops
and as has been the in many recent years.
the statement may prove to be correct IN re-
spect to borrowed money but balances held IN
local banks will he withdrawn by Western cor
respondents No matter whose money 1t is, sur
plus reserves of the associated banks VIII be
reduced. Thus far the only outgo has been TO
Canada last weeks shipments making the total
for the season thus far S4,30O,G0O. There Is
still less probability of gold exports to Europe
rates of foreign exchanges declining further IN
response to sales of commercial bills against
coming free shipments of farm products
and more finance bills against bond sub
scriptions that came due abroad. Govern
ment finances show that the deficit on regu-
lar operations is less this month than in July
but small imports of merchandise curtail GUS
toms receipts. and the trif1ing increase in the
total amount of money in circulation during
Julv results in a loss of four cents per capita,
owing to a relatively larger increase In est1-
mated population.
Merchants are assembling in ali the leading
iobbing centres, placing liberal orders at some
points while caution is still displayed in many
cases In general way the best volume OF new
orders comes from agricultural districts in wnlch
the crops are assured, and least favorable re-
ports emanate from manufacturing centres
where many months of light payrolls have re-
strcted consumption Although the mills and
factories are steadily enlargfng operations there
are debts to be paid, and 1t will take some time
to restore buying normal scale. Anxiety
regarding the cotton goods auction proved to be
unfounded as fair prices were secured, and the
market shows no signs of decentralization. This
weeks sale will be watched with much IN
terest Notably encouraging reports are re-
ceived from St. Louis and Kansas City as to the
orders placed by country buyers, but baltimore
is not yet crowded with outside merchants. Chi
caso finds the aggregate volume of business
larger than at the time last year, but
Philadelphia is far below 1907 and there is
much irregularity as to collections One OF the
best indications is the statement of building
permits showing increase in July over the
same month last year while failures were fewer
in July than in any preceding month this year
except June and liabilities smaller than in
any month since July, 1907, with the exception
of May The second half of the year opens
with many signs of encouragement, notably
the statistics of pig iron production, which has
steadily risen until the weekly output is
10000 tons larger than January l. This in
dustry is gaining perceptibly, even the steel rail-
division reporting a substantial tonnage of new
business. Prices of hides and leather stub
bornly maintained, which handicaps the foot
wear industry, but woOllen mills are purchasing
raw material more freely.
At this season ii is inevitable that the crops
should be ruined by direct wire to the leading
commodity exchanges, and 1908 IS especially ia
vorable for the skilled grain killer because of the
small stocks carried over from the preceding
season. Earlier in the year there were heavy
rains and spectators predicted that would
be drowned out backing their statements by os-
tentatious buying of options until the public
came In and assumed much of the load. The
government report appears indicating
2716OOO0OO bushels, yield far above all
ords except that of 1906 Numerous scares We're
started about winter wheat and high prices
quoted for that grain, but the harvest is COM
pleted and official figures of the yield are 425-
900 bushels. within about 10 per cent Of
the best result attained while con-
servative newspaper makes the total over 500
100000 bushels. Last week the most sensa-
tional reports of the season told of ruin by
rust in the Northwest to extent that must
reduce the spring wheat yield at least one-haf.
This was the greatest success nfater of
options on one day alone prices rising three or
dispatches were received the market was stub
bornly held When extravagant statements are
made about the extent of damage it is well 20
consider that much OF the spring wheat is cut
and at the first sign of rust there is a rush to
harvest the grain which minimzes the danger