Bisbee daily review., 1908-10-07
INDUSTRY AT STANDST|LL FOR
 THE ELECTION
East StEI In the Throes of the Panic, Says Clews, and Business Awaits the NOvem-
 Der Presidential Outcome.
lBy Henry clews.l

| NEW YORK, Oct. 6.3T1e fear thai additional political scares may happen
 during the next two or three weeks deteTs the big operators from making large commitments. Very soon calcu l lations as to results can be more safe ly made, and then the market in all probability will begin to discount the
 result more earnestly. Just now the | political situation is so confused by ! conflicting currents, local issues and personal recrimination, that confidence | in the outcome is not as strong as 1t was. Inertia is not confined to the stock market, since general business is also holding back and as soon as the election outlook is settled more actiy- 1 ity may be looked for in both industry and commerce. It is not to be expect l ed that politics will have any very 1 serious or permanent effect upon trade movements or prices, because actual consumption is not materially affect ed by such circumstances, and orders held back pending uncertainty will
 simply accumulate and accentuate ac- tivity later on. History shows that
 the effect of a presidential campaign
 upon business has always been more
 sentimental than actual.
 Outside of politics the market is in "a fairly satisfactory condition. If money continues cheap stocks are not excessively high: if on the other hand money hariens to any considerable eX- tent security values would of course be adversely affected Much depends therefore on the course of the money market. Of late there has ben some hardening of rates, owing to demands of the interior for crop moving pur- poses. It should be remembered that our crops of wheat and corn are larg- CT than last year, and that the high prices of all agricultural products necessitate the employment of more money in their marketing. There is also a prospect of good business throughout the great grain belt where the panic has fortunately been but slightly felt.
 In west, northwest and Pacific states, therefore, there should be a good demand for money during the next three months at least. In the south, the situation is somewhat differ ent. The outlook is for a fair cotton crop, say 13,00O,000 bales, but the price is 20 per cent lower than year ago, and the chances are that demands on the banks for crop moving pur- poses will be less urgent than year ago. Moreover, the south has felt the panic more than the west; her cotton mills are much depressed, and with Iessened consumptive demand for her chief staple the south can hardly be expected to be as optimistic as the more fortunate farmers of the west. It is the east, however, which has felt and still feels the panic with greatest severity. In this section industrial in terests are vastly more important than the agricultural, and as these have been intimately affected by the panic it is natural that depression should be greatest on this side of the Ale ghenies.
 The continued comparative inactlN- ity of business in the eastern cities o1 course materially lessens the mercan- tile demand for money Funds nave consequently accumulated to an un- usual degree; and, there being no eL- ficient means of contraction in our currency system, idle money has gone into speculation and produced a de- gree of more or less unwelcome infia- ton. The late drop of , to 20 points in the active stocks somewhat min imized this danger; but the latter will always remain as long as there Is an excessive surplus of idle funds. Alter inc election there should be some i'm movement in business, which would serve to create a better demand TOT money. and if speculation revives that too will have to be taken into account. All things considered, therefore, IL looks as if the lowest rates in money had been reached; and that, while
 caeap money might be expected LOT
 some time to come, the tendency
 would be rather toward fiTmer rates
 So long as no material change takes
 place in the money market and pres
 ent dividend rates are maintained many stocks will not look dear at their present price. As to the chances of maintaining dividends the outlook
 is not entirely satisfactory. A few re- ductions have taken place and a few others may follow. Thus far the rail roads by means of strenuous economy
 have avoided any radical cuts in divi- dends; but such economies have been pushed to the limit by deferring re- pairs and outlays that must now be met, and unless revenue begins to in crease dividends must be further cut.
 Fortunately, however, the outlook in | this respect is steadily improving.
 Losses in earnings are steadily de ciining, and net results often prove better than expected. Five months
 ago 413.000 cars were idle. or nearly 20 per cent of the whoe. Today less than 173. 900 cars, or per cent, are idle. ard after election this percent
 age will be still further reduced ire
 spective of who is elected. The rail
 road outlook, consequently. is steadily Improving, especially in the west, and
 were it not for the increased obliga- tions which many roads recently as l tl,nr-r ,I..1ld iiftIl. rnlasad fcr.