The San Juan islander. [volume] (Friday Harbor, Wash.) 1898-1914, 1908-05-02
SITUATION PECULIAR
-coND CHOICE VOTE TO PLAY
IMPORTANT PART IN PRIMARY
ELECTIONS.
Nsw Feature of Direct Primary Factor
:, Gubernatorial Nomination-First
Choice Candidate Must Secure 10000
Mites. Which Is Conceded to BE a
Difficult Mark.

Portland, Ore, April 27.-The Olym-
oio correspondent of the Sunday Ore
l,onian contributes the following re-
aarding the possible working of the
s.u urinary election law in Washing
ton state:
The candidate for the Republican
domination for governor in the Septem-
her primaries will have to set his mark
Of about 10000 votes in order to be
FIRST choice of his party for the place.
The estimate made by political OBJ
ceryers is that the total Republican
vote cast for Republican state officers
in the primaries will not exceed $4,000.
Forty per cent is required to give the
nomination on first choice.
The highest vote for Republican
candidate cast in the general election
Of 1906 was for F. w. Cushman, candi-
date for congress, who received Il, 921
votes. Two years before that, how
ever in the presidential year, Cush-
mans vote was 93,328, while M. A. Full
1erton, candidate for supreme judge,
led his party state ticket with 94,224.
The highest Republican vote cast in
1904 was for presidential electors, S.
G, Cosgrove receiving 101,540. The
vote on presidential electors, however,
is not considered fair criterion as to
the normal Republican vote, particu-
larlv in that year when sentiment in
favor of the election of Roosevelt for
president permeated other political
parties in the state.
Expect Light Vote.
Based on the returns of the last cleo
ton and the growth of the state in the
succeeding years, it is estimated that
the normal Republican vote this year
is about 100000
There are several contingencies to
be considered in estimating the per-
centage of the vote that will be cast in
the September primaries. One is the
fact that the primaries occur in the
midst of the harvest season in eastern
Washington when many voters will
likely find it impossible to leave their
farms to go to the polls. Another is
the lesser interest usually shown in
primaries as compared with the gen.
eral election. A third factor to be con-
sdered is the danger that failure to
understand the second choice provision
of the primary election law will result
in the throwing out of many ballots.
For offices for which there are four
nd ha M
fails to mark his second choice as well
as his first choice will have his vote
thrown out. A second choice and first
choice vote must not be cast for the
same candidate. The difficulty of edu-
eating the voters to this feature of the
law is recognized as difficult pro-
blem
When all these contingencies are
taken into consideration, the estimate
of the Republican vote that will be
counted in the September primaries is
usually placed at about 70 to Is per
cent of the normal vote of the party.
Some estimates go as low even as 60
per cent
Contest Sure to Be Close.
When IS per cent is taken as the ba-
SIS or $4,000 votes, the 40 per cent
necessary to first choice is 10000. If
any candidate for governor counts on
getting 10000 votes, he will have to
admit that the combined vote for his
lour opponents will be but $4,000, or an
average of H. $50 each.
Indications at this time, however,
point to close contest between at
least TWO of the leading candidates.
politicians who try to. figure the
'nlhg out in advance almost invariably
come to the conclusion that the sue
eeSslul candidate for governor will not
oe CHOSEN by first choice votes alone.
The second choice feature Of the law
~ an elusive proposition for them in
making prediction estimates. It is
Tile general theory, however, that if the
oonlest, as is now indicated, results in
al energetic fight between the two
iedulng candidates, that the supporters
VI either leading candidate will not
Vast their second choice votes for the
olher leading candidate. The leading
candidate will therefore have to look
10 the weaker candidates for second
choice votes.
May Place Third Man First.
II Is we'll within the range of proba-
oiliues that the second choice votes
VI ooth leading candidates will concen-
rate upon third man, who will have
81 first choice votes to make
niln the winner when his first and Sec
'nu choice votes are added.
AFTER the second choice votes are
.ahen into consideration, it is the can
uiaate who has the plurality that sue
NoedS TO the nomination.
somewhat similar conditions will ex-
lo' as to nearly every other state Office,
tAeept supreme and superior court
tuuses and members of the legislature.
~ "nom the second choice provision
eoes not apply. One result anticipated
4, mat before the campaign is well
aiong there will be just as much cleo
Votes.