Bismarck daily tribune. [volume] (Bismarck, Dakota [N.D.]) 1881-1916, 1908-02-28
Washington letter


from the states and territories named
in the foregoing list, or 3SS in all.
But we shall surely be within reason
if we assume that on the first ballot
this great national belt of republi-
can or propably or possibly repub1i-
can states, gives him $50 votes. He
would still need about $50 votes for
the nomination. Where are these
votes to come from?
New England it is now pretty we'll
understood will for the most part
OF the convention be instructed and
essarily mean anti-Taft. From all
accounts tie Taft sentiment is strong
er in New England than sentiment
for any other candidate. Most of the
political leaders are either hostile or
neutral. Nevertheless Taft is already
assured of some votes from New
England, and it is believed will gain
more before the convention meets.
Now it is well known that much
more than one-half of the south If
for Taft. In fact, he is to have near
ly all of it. Florida, South Carolina.
North Carolina, the greater part of
Georgia and Alabama, all of Ten
nessee and Virginia, Mississippi and
Texas and Arkansas are for Taft.
Kentucky is for Fairbanks. There
will be many contesting delegates
from the south. Someone is furnish
ing money for use among the old
crowd Of colored politicians, and "a
large number of these gentry. will be
at Chicago demanding seats on the
warrant of runm conventions. Prob.
ABLY the national committee win
make short shift of them and the
convention will sustain the commit
tee. Both the committee and the
convention are o-Roosevelt, pro-
Taft.
We are therefore justified in as
Stunning that on the first roll call fully
200 of the 2e6 southern delegates wil
vote for Taft If only one-half of
them do SO second ballot will not
| be needed
! With 375 votes from the great CEN
trail belt and New England combined
Taft needs about 125 more to win.
The distinctiye1y southern states
have 266. The five states with favor
tie sons have 256. If Taft could get
only one-half of the south added to
the foregoing estimate he would have
enough without encrouching upon
the favorite son states or in other
words on the first ballot.
OF the fourteen votes from Con-
neticut he is pretty sure of ten and
may have all. OF the thirty-two from
Massachusetts, he may get ten nr
twelve on the first ballot. OF the
eight from New Hampshire he al
ready has five. Vermont usually
lands with the winner" and there
are eight votes which may come to
Taft. Maine and Rhode Island are
now uncertain.
At least the friends of Taft conn,
upon twenty-five to thirty-five of the
Lightweight votes from New England
and hope for many more.
But suppose second ballot should
be necessary and always assuming
that the Roosevelt earthquake OF
which men talk SO much fails to
erupt? In the natural order of things
the column of votes 256 strong, held
by the FIVE favorite sons, must dis
solve sooner or later. Not all can
stand out to the 'last ditch" logi-
: cally some of them, Hughes or Knox
: or Cannon or Fairbanks, must be
: chosen to lead: the opposition to the
administration. 1t is too early to
say who is to be the leader in that
movement, if it ever materilizes, but
since coming east have heard more
/ talk of Knox and Cannon and less of
Hughes. Fairbanks also has many
, friends among the moderates.
The point is that If the opportnn-
: ity should arise all of these 256 fov-
l orite son votes cannot be delivered to
anyone of them Indiana, Illinois
l Wisconsin, we know, are Loyalty fol
!, their state leaders, but cannot be
delivered to anyone else. Nor can
i all of the Knox or Hughes votes be
: delivered to Cannon or Fairbanks.
Y The moment the 256 votes in the
Y favorite son column begin to shift!
J, the leader in the race, almost a win
p ner, inevitably gets enough votes
Y from or other of the states to pnsf
him over the line.
: There is small probability that i
S will come to this. Viewed in cold
!, blooded analysis, without any favor
d itism or coloring whatsoever, the sit
S uation promises nothing else than tn
nomination OF Taft on the first. bal
lot. But If he should fail on tina