The Irish standard., 1908-10-10
ELECTION GUEssEs.


here. Party managers and party or
gans will be engaged for the next few
weeks in forecasting majorities. For
the most part these forecasts will he
valueless. They are made because
partisans demand 1t. Party leaders
realize that the workers need encour-
agcment and party organs know that
their partisan subscribers want to
read pleasing forecasts. There was
make fairly accurate estimates of the
different states. The ties of party
were so strong that results could cas-
lily be estimated. That was before the
day of the independent voter. Twenty
years ago Il change Of ten votes to tho
precinct was remarkable. Now the
vote of the last election furnishes lit
tie upon which to predict the vote of
the coming election. 1t is apparent
this year that party leaders on both
sides are in doubt. The only thi:'y
that can be prophecied with any Ger
tainty is that there ols trend away
from the Republican harty and toward
the Democratic party. Every observ-
c. admits that fact but no one is able
tc say whether the drift is sufficient to
give to the Democratic candidate ml-
jority in the electoral college.
There are 4ss votes in the electoral
college, of which 242 are necessary fer
success. At the present time Mr.. Bry-
an is reasonably sure Of the solid
South and Oklahoma, which will give
him 1853 electoral votes. There is
much reason for believing that the
drift to the Democratic party and Re-
publican dissension Will add to the
solid South the two a<ates of Maryland
and West Virginia. which before 1896
belonged with the solid South. These
states have Is votes. In the great ter
ritory West of the Missouri river. tire
Democrats hope that rryan may make
as good showing as he did in 1896,
and it is evident that the Republicans
fear that they may ls,rc some or all of
this territory. In 1896 Mr.. Bryan ca:
ried Colorado, Idaho. Kansas. Mon
tana, Nebraska. Nevada, South Dal1o-
ia. Utah. Washington and Wyoming.
II they should carry the same states
this year they woulu yield Al votes.
This would give Mr.. Bryan 22O vo.e',
or % less than majority.
1t is evident that if there is to be
change that that change will 10
brought about through the votes Of
one or more of four great states-New
York, Illinois. Ohio and Indiana. The
vote IN these states is so great ard
the changes so rapid and overwhel,n-
ing that it would be I. rash person who
would undertake to say what the re-.
suit will he. New York has 1900, ,00o,
Illinois 100000. Ohi. 100000 and In
diana $4,000. When either party
claims a majority of $4,000 for its can
didate in the state of New York. 1t &c,
be seen that it is only a guess. This
would be a large majority in some
states. but in New York it is only 3
per cent of the total vote. The only
safe prophecy is that the successful
candidate must carry one or more Of
the four states last named. The man
who loses all these states cannot hope
to be elected.
If Mr.. Bryan carries the territory
which he did in 1896 and. in addition
thereto. receives the votes of Okla!lc-
ma. Maryland and West Virginin.
which seems likely. either one of tn,
three states OF New York. Illinois or
Ohio would make him president
Many will ask why these four states
should be considere~ doubtful when
they gave such overwhelming majori-
ties to the Republicans in the last
three presidential campaigns. They
are doubtful in this campaign, where
it is admitted there is a change to-
ward the Democratic party. because
they have shown the disposition in
the past to swing from one side to the
other. New York's record for change
is the most uniform. In 1860 it vot-
ed for Lincoln. In 1864 it gave its
vote to the Democratic candidate. Nc
Clellan. In 1868 it again voted for the
Democratic candidate. Seymour. In
1872 it gave it's vote to Grant. In
1876 it returned to the Democratic COL
umn and voted for Tilden. In 1880 it
went Republican. In 1884 it was again
Democratic. In 1883 1t voted against
Cleveland. In 1892 1t again gave its
vote to Cleveland. Since 1892 it hrs