The Paducah evening sun. [volume] (Paducah, Ky.) 1906-1929, 1908-07-22
A PROPHET OF PROSPERITY


A prophet of prosperity. and one
yho speaks with authority. is John
Claflln, of New York, says the Louis
Vile Herald.
Mr.. Clann is head of a gigantic
Wholesale dry goods concern in the
eastern metropolis and the directing
force behind a string of great depart
ment stores in many American cities,
three of which are to be found in
Louisville. He is recognized in New
York as a man of highest commercial
standing, supreme ability and keen
knowledge of affairs in the world of
business. The World. OF that city. de-
votes a column of its space to an in
terv.ew with him on the outlook for
trade, and the tenor of his replies to
the questions of the reporter indicates
a strong feeling OF optimism based
upon his intimate touch with the
whole situation.
Here is Mr.. Claims summary OF
conditions and the line of argument
he follows in predicting a return of
prosperity:
let us consider first the retail
trade, for that is the branch in closest
touch with the people and first feels
varying conditions. Merchants had
laid in enormous stocks OF goods for
their holiday season. When the
crash came their sales were at once
sharply curtailed. When they took
inventory on the first of last January
they found themselves possessed oil
the largest supply OF stock on hand
that they had ever known. Natural,
they stopped buying and even can
celed orders already given. This had
its effect on the wholesaler and
through him the manufacturer. wht
was forced to curtail the production
"But since the first of January tn,
retailer has had good business. Their,
have been bad spots, such as New
York, Pittsburg. Birmingham. Cincin
natl and San Francisco. but takinl
the average Of the entire country W,
find that during the last six months
the retail business has been only II
per cent. less than II was for the cor
responding period last year and jus
about the same as for the spring o.
1906. The marchant has been Obliged
to cut prices some and his profits
have decreased, but he has disposed o.
his accumulated stock and has not
contracted any new obligations.
Whereas, on January the aver
age merchant found himself stocked
heavier than ever before, the first Of
July disclosed on his shelves IN,
smallest stock he ever carried, wit.
his credit good and a valuable lessor
learned in economic and conservatiy,
management.
"In 1907 he had gained 10 per cent
over 1906. This year he has faller
back to the 1906 record. so his loss
has been one years advance.
with the manufacturer the figures
are different During the last hall
year his production has been only G7
per cent. of what 1t was for the cor
responding period last year. The re-
taller lost only 10 per cent. of hi.
sales record. but the manufacturer
sales have gone down 35 per cent. In
these very figures. however. are signs
OF improved conditions for the future
There is a difference of 25 per
cent between the consumption and
the production. More goods n .
been sold than we're manufactu ed
during the past six months. The sur
plus stock on hand has been greatly
reduced The merchant soon will
have TO buy for the autumn season.
The mills are beginning to increase
their activity In anticipation Of the
demand. and in this way the reyiva;
of prosperity VIII start"
To these sanely. reasoned argu-
ments he adds his belief that the busl-
ness world is on sounder basis than
for some time past. and declares that
prices touched bottom in June.
Il