The Montgomery advertiser., 1908-09-27
THE COTTON MARKET
 IN BROAD REVIEW
Supply Demand and How the Producer May Profit by Intelligent Marketng-conditon of Trade and the Near Future Outlook-Interesting Article
 by President of the New Orleans
 Cotton Exchange
wv Orleans Times Democrat.

New Orleans Times Democrat.
 Mir. W. B. Thompson. president or the New Orleans Cotton Exchange and senior member of the spot cotton house of W. B. Thompson & CO, has prepar- ed and will to-day circulate among the consumers and producers or cot ton the subjoined broadly interesting yet directly educational article con cerning the market for the South's chief staple product:
 Price Influences.
 As e rule. a short cotton crop brings a high price per pound, and large crop brings low price. Although this is by no means an invariable rule, still the size of the yield is the most obvious, and by general acceptance the most important factor In fixing the price per pound at which any given crop may be sold. But experience mas shown striking exceptions to this ruie. There have been short crops that did not bring a high price, and there have been large crops that did not bring low price. Some other factor besides the size of the crop must be active. therefore in the price-making. This other factor found to be the trade de- mand for the raw material. which de- mand Is but an expression of the gen. eral condition. of the people with re- gard to properity or the reverse.
 The efforts. therefore, of those en- gagged in the business either of buying or selling cotton. are directed first to- ward securing information upon which the probable size of the crop may be forecasted. Having satisfied them selves on this point, consideration Is given to the present and prospective condition of trade. The resultant con- clusion gives each individual student his idea of the probable course of the market and of the price. As the in- dications point with most conclusive ness, so will the majority believe. The consensus of opinion thus formed, Will express itself either in higher bids or lower offers as the case may be, until the prices reach figure which the consensus of opinion considers appro- priate to the conditions 1t believes ex- fists or will exist.
 But it Is not safe to accept as con- elusive this expression of popular opinion. On the contrary, 1t Is safer, perhaps, to accept the unpopular con- clusion. This for several reasons. In the first place, crop estimating is the most iriexact of all the sciences. It ranks with fortune telling. If thousand bales of cotton were piled most noted expert could not estimate in disorder, the chances are that the within 25 per cent of the actural num- Der. Still less can he tell the number
 
 even, though the cotton was all open in the field before his eyes: and still less can he give a dependable estimate of what one county or five hundred counties will yield. when the plant is not yet matured. Popular opinion. based upon such data. Is blind guide.
 Tn the second place. popular opinion of trade conditions and prospects is unreliable as basis of price forecast. ing, for the foregoing reason and for another. Not only Is such opinion the result of guesswork, but 1t is to a great extent based upon testimony that 1t is not disinterested. We all know. of course, that trade conditions are bad, but the utter hollowness and hope lessness of the spinner's life is borne in upon us by the testimony of the victims themselves, whose profits it must be remembered, will be increased according to the extent and thorough ness with which they can innoculate the seller of cotton with the virus of despair.
 F1nnally, 1t 1t unsafe to accept as