The San Francisco call., 1908-10-18
careful CANVASS
fAVORS THE OH|OAN
The Calls Conservative Poll In-
dicates 35,36l Lead for
Taft, in This State

The Call co-operated with the New
York World in canvass of the %
states generally classified as pivotal.
1t also prosecuted an independent
canvass. While The Calls estimates
and information came generally from
the sources employed by the New
York World The Call is not able to
make its forecast figures agree with
those presented by the World in sew
eral important states.
The World, which is supporting
Bryan, whom il at first bitterly opposed,
declaring that Bryan's nomination was
synonymous with democratic defeat,
finds as a result of its canvass that the
conditions II days before election in
dicate that Bryan will carry 30 states
with total electoral vote of rs; that
Taft will carry 30 states with an cleo
torai vote of 205, and that states.
including New York and Ohio, with
total electoral vote of 100, are in doubt.
The same canvass reinforced with
The Calls independent Investigations,
conducted in the same manner, gives
materially different results. The Calls
canyass indicates that Bryan will carry
16 states with an electoral vote of 164;
Taft % states, with an electoral vote
of 2s5, and that only five states, with
a total electoral vote of 81, seem to be
in doubt.
The great discrepancies between the
results of the canvass as deduced by
the World and by The Call lie in the
assignments of states 10 the doubtful
column. The World, which as re-
suit OF its own canvass conceded New
York to Taft one week ago, puts the
Empire state in the doubtful column
today by announcing that its canvass
has been brought down to date. The
World also puts Ohio in the doubtful
column, while The Calls figures indi-
cate that Taft will carry his own state
by not less than $4,000, and those fig
ures were made after resolving every
doubt touching the machine and negro
votes in that state in favor of Bryan.
CALIFORNIA SITUATION
The probable results in California are
of first interest to Californians. The
Calls canvass of this state was con-
Quoted Systematically and thoroughly.
Its estimates are based on the work
OF its correspondents throughout the
state and the claims of leaders of both
reinforced by the estimates of party
county committee chairmen, where such
estimates were obtainable.
The Calls canvass was conducted
with entire impartiality and completed
with the single purpose of getting as
nearly as might be at the exact condi-
tions. The most surprising feature of
The Calls canvass was the striking
similarity between the estimates re-
%rtr 7a6 hx~ ota1 IL, 81
authorities in the same counties. In
several counties the republican and
democratic estimators submitted esti-
mated totals varying less than 200
votes and in two counties the demo-
Gratis and republicans were less than
100 votes apart in their estimated
pluraiities.
According TO the best evidence gath
cred by the correspondents of The Call
and its political advisers in both par
ties, California viii give Taft plural
ity of 35,361.
Out of total vote of 3S1,76s Roose-
veit carried California in 1904 by
plurality of 115 1892. Roosevelt carried
55 counties, with aggregate pluralities
of lis. .9Sf. Parker carried two counties
with aggregate pluralities of 49 votes.
Out of an indicated total vote of &c.,
6lS this year The Calls canvass indi-
Gates that Taft will carry AZ counties.
with total pluralities of 3s,S22. and that
Bryan will probably carry 16 counties.
with total pluralities of 3,461, leaving a
probable net plurality for Taft of
80, ,361.
BRYAN Personal VOTE
AS indicated by The Calls canvass,
the difference in the vote this year and
that of four years ago may generally
be ascribed to the fact that Taft will
not get the votes of the Bryan per-
sonal following. which went to Roose-
Welt in large numbers in 1904. The
vote for Debs and the apparently in
significant vote for the doodle dee can
didate, Hisgen, as indicated in the can
vass, will figure in the results only to
increase Tafts pluralities in San Fran
cisco, Los Angeles and Oakland.
There is an indicated increase of
about 5000 votes in the socialist total.
A considerable if not the major portion
OF this socialist increase is indicated to
be polled in San Francisco. And that
Increased socialist vote must be taken
almost exclusively from the normal
Bryan vote. All the leaders in the
Hearst doodle dee movement are ex-
democrats and the indicated insignifi-
cant vote polled for Hisgen will be a
further If slight, drain on the Nebras-
kan.
Conservative estimates scaled down
to the last notch indicate the California
total vote in round numbers as follows
Taft, 10000; Bryan, 1885, 900; Debs, 3d.
900; Chain, 10000; scattering. 5000.
The indicated total vote is larger
than seems popularity to be expected.
dull campaign, the absence of red fire
and the settled state of the popular
mind have had much to do with form
ing the popular idea that California
will poll small vote. The registra :
tion. outside of San Francisco. tends
strongly TO prove quite the contrary.
The San Francisco registration was
apparently a disappointment to the
minds of the final distribution of the
electoral vote, and they are already
preparing to adjust themselves to any
condition that may result from the elec-
tion
1t is apparent from the canvass of