The Washington herald. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1906-1939, 1908-05-03
SURPRISE IN POLITICS
Unexpected Happens in Ma.
ti0nal Conventions.
FAVORITES WHO WENT WRONG
Records of the RepubIie-Party Ban
ners Carried by Men Who Were
Not Voted For on the First Ballot
i'm COnventiOn-Ambit Wrecked.
Dark Horse winner in 1850.

Dark Horse Winner in 1850.
II is moral certainty, almost a demon
strable truth. that the best-laid schemes
o mice and politicians gang aft-aye,
gang most generally always-a-gley.
! II history repeats itself. it is not in
mere blind succession of similar events,
but in like results from like historic
movements. The argument from analogy
| is recognized as one of the weakest IN
the whole science of logic. Maybe the
other common saying is just as good for
! judgment, namely, that lightning never
| strikes in the same place twice.
/ 1t is easy, therefore, to see that the
great game now going on on the national
chessboard is likely to prove as unfcre-
seen in its ending as is the average throw
/ of dice. The politician strives for
/ desired end-hig own, his friends, or his
! party's success; and that, too, without
an unprecedented submission of his case
to the logical law of the calculation of
chances. He thinks he can win because
he hopes he can.
History Repeats Itself.
This is particularly the case in Presi-
Dental politics Nevertheless, there is
lot great reason TO doubt but that only
one single, lone candidate from each
party gets a Presidential nomination, and
that the other fellow gets left 1t will be
thus at Chicago and thus at Denver, and
~ 4hot avtsrf t,fgtor,, NH -,gg,,r.,7t,- ~,
peat itself
It Is the wisdom and broad-visioned
foresight of the convention that in reality
make the President If the conventions
choice be the citizen personally the. most
popular and favoring the most popular
governmental policies he is, In the terms
Of the statement the peoples fayorite.
and must get the plurality OF the votes in
November. But there's the rub.
Who shall say. in advance of the cleo
ton itself. much less in advance of the
convention, who is the candidate the
most popular personally and politically?
Il IS noticeable that Old Figgers eros
venOr is not giving out COcksure esti-
mates this time Of year-obviously valu-
ing his reputation for prophetic truth
and veraclty too highly TO risk its utter
ruin in doubtful times ike these.
What the chances for the favorites have
been may be easily learned from the rec
ords. Since and including the year 1910
We have had thirteen different elected
Presidents OF regular Republican and
Democratic conventions there have been
thirty-two
Ia thesag convent IONS r,,-,, ,,,,, ttt,s %
the popular favorites-tbose who started
out with the largest number of votes on
FIRST hallots-failed OF the nomination
The chances Of the favoTites are shown
10 be further reduced by the fact that
six nominees were merely denominations
OF Presidents already serving and having
no opposition.
Another Bar "a Coal.
Lastly. let it be remembered that the
majority OF the votes cast by the people
at the November election-that true index
OF genuine pOpularity-has been given 20
but few Of those even who reached the
White House II has likewise sometimes
happened that he who received the ma
jority Of the electoral votes carried just
one more than half the States Even
votes OF 50 in 1896. got only = Of the s.
For the past ten or twelve weeks the
politicians. really. but the people. sup
poseily, have been picking out the en-
tries, and, necessarily among these. the
winner Of the great November meet for
the Presidential stakes. In the district
primaries and in the party State con-
yentions, where the predictions are dis
closed and the promises of the actions at
Chicago and Denver are secured the
masses Of the voters have not been over
attentive. They do not at all appreciate
the straightness Of the line of movement
from the primary polls To the electors
ballOting for President at the meeting I'm
the Capitol in February.
Yet il is by these district and State
conventions that the future of the PARTY
for four years. and possibly the fate OF
some 10000 offceholders and Of some
500.000 would-be ofFiceholders. is partly
but unwitungly -square-deal
righteousness 10 the contrary notwith-
standing, perhaps.
These preliminary supposed expressions
of the peoples Will often so uninteHi-
gently and fiaccidly exercised, have. ac-
cording to the shouts Of the Taft man
ayers and some careful students. and ac-
Bryan enthusiasts already assured the
nomination OF these two gentlemen. But
as TO that. naturally, the favorite sons
and the, dark horses have their own
views.
Maybe Hughes, Cannon, Fairbanks.
Foraker, Knox. COrtelyou. La Toilette.
and Shaw, and Johnson, Gray. Harmon.
81 i'd omne genus, secretly know a thing
or two themselves about conventions.
But they are not telling much OF il out
loud. Conventions have not always been
captured by sure-thing men and hurrah
claimants. Mr.. Bryan himself remembers
fun well how he came 10 raise the breeze
OF popularity In the convention of 1896
and got the coveted honor
Record of Conventions.
Beginning back in 1924. when it had al
ways been customary for a Congress
sional caucus to recommend the candidate
practically amounting to a nomination
sixty-six Of the total membership con-
vened and recommended William II.
Crawford, Of Georgia, as the alleged IA
vOrite. The rest of the politicians and
the majority Of the people did not ap-
prove the selection. Gen Jackson won
the Presidential prize. both in the popular
and the electoral vote
In 1910 Henry Clay began al the Har-
risburg Wing convention with 1OS dele |
gates, as against 81 for William Henry |
Harrison and 81 for Winfield Scott. At |
the end of three days balloting Gen
Harrison had 14s, Clay 80, and Scott 16, /
thus giving the nomination to Old Tippe- /
canoe.
In the Democratic convention Of 1874 /
meeting at Baltimore. there were eight !
Would-bes started in the race. Martin |
Van Buren,, with many State delegations !
instructed for him, and with all the mo- |
mentum Of a term in the White House |
back Of him. claimed a sure thing of IT, |
He began. in the viva voce voting. with /