Evening times-Republican. [volume] (Marshalltown, Iowa) 1890-1923, 1908-09-15
Little Bunch Of States Hold
Key to Result OF No
vember Election
REPUBLICANS LEAD BY A SHADE
A Non Partisan Size-up of the Polite
al Situation to Date--lndiana Real
ly Doubtful-some Rows on the Pa
cific coast-Three States Defy Class
ification.

pened frequently in American politics
| that the presidency has been decided
by very narrow margin. and that not
withstanding large majority of both
! the popular and the electoral vote mas
| been cast for the successful candidate
the change of a few thousand votes
would have elected his opponent. Never
was this truth more strikingly illus
| trated than in 1895, when William Nc
Kinley had popular majority of half
! a million and majority in the elector-
al college of %. There We're 447 cleo
toral votes that year, of which Nc
| Kinley had 271 and Bryan 1T6. A ma
iority was ga which Bryan would
have had could he have carried Cal
ifornia, Indiana, Kentucky, West Viz
ginia and Oregon. 1t is noteworthy
| that these five states combined gave
Mckinley in 1896 plurality of only
34S62, which means that if Bryan had
lbeen able to secure a trifie more than
| one half that number, properly dis
| tributed among the Ave states named,
| he would have been president In the
place of Mckinley. 1t is this we'll
known fact with regard to presiden-
| tial politics that makes every CAM
paign uncertain, no matter how conf
| dent one side or the other may seem.
| and which in a close year, as the pres
| ent one may be, awakens an unusual
| interest in politics. That interest has
not yet manifested itself in the present
campaign in any large way but before
| the first of October, or at least by that
| time, the country will be thinking of
little else than the contest being woged
between Mr.. Bryan and Mr. Taft
1T is interesting to observe that the
five states named above are this year
placed in The doubtful column by one
party or the other, altho there is dis
agreement as to whether the doubt
favors Taft or Bryan. 1t does not fol-
Mr. Bryan will be elected president il
he should carry these five states this
year, but their relation to the contest
of 1895 is very suggestive of possibili-
ties which may be wrapped UP in the
contest of today, and Of the need that
there is for both campaign committees
to look carefully after the. situation in
all the debatable states.
Some Rows on the Coast.
Taking the five states in order, Cal
ifornia it may. be stated, is claimed as
doubtful by the democrats owing to
the anti-Japanese declarations of the
Denver convention. The republicans,
however, maintain that the state is
safely republican, owing to the adj
ministrations policy of encouraging
trade in the far east, thus building up
the Pacific states, and to the fact that
Mr.. Hearst is power in California
politics.
Oregon has been giving increasing
republican majorities since 1896. but
there is trouble there this year, grow
ing out of the fact chat the, direct pri-
maries have ordered a legislature that
will surely be republican, to elect a
democrat, Governor Chamberlain, to
the United States senate. The repub-
licans admit that the senatorial situa
ton has been complicated in Oregon,
but they believe that the state will be
for Taft altho their claims are be
ing made with some degree Of modesty.
The democrats. of course, claim the
state for Bryan.
The republicans are claiming that
Kentucky will be for Taft this year,
but the best advices reaching this city
indicate that it will be for Bryan, who,
of course, claims it, Kentucky was car
ried by Mckinley in 1896, put the DEM
ocrats have carried it since that year
on presidential matters, altho last
year it elected a republican governor
and now has republican senator.
elect. The last year result, it is pointed
out here, was due to internal dissen-
sions, the democratic party in Ken
lucky being sadly divided at that time.
The situation in West Virginia has
been improving Of late, so far as the
republicans are concerned. There is
now chance that there will be but one
set of presidential electors, and that
whatever may happen to the state tick
ct, the united party will stand behind
the republican candidates for electors.
This fact is giving rise to the impress
sion that West Virginia is not nearly
as doubtful as it was a month ago, and
that the outlook there for victory for
FIR. Taft has been nightly improved.
1t is still too early, however, to say
that he will surely carry the state.
Indiana Really Doubtful.
Indiana is claimed by both parties,
but neither has any substantial basis
for it's claim. The best that can be said
at this time is that the state is doubt
full, and that while for certain reasons
NJ TAFT appears to have something
of a lead, any moment that lead may
be lost and the state turned toward
Bryan. For at least month it will
not be possible to speak with any GER
tainty regarding Indiana and it may
not be possible then.
1t is not denied that Mr.. Taft be-
gins the campaign generally speaking,
with the advantage on his side. The
point of dispute comes as to whether it
will be possible for Mr.. Bryan to over
come that advantage. This is a dispute
which only the voters will settle eff
fectualiy.
Allowing for the new state of Okla
homa, there will be 4S3 votes in the
electoral college this year. with PAP as
a majority. Both sides are already
busy making up tables showing how
they think these votes will fall as be-
tween Taft and Bryan, and it is just
as well to say in that connection that
the claim of neither side should be
accepted at its face value by the man
a.