The Birmingham age-herald., 1908-11-01
POLITICAL SIDELIGHTS
New York in Balance.

Walter Wellman in the Record-Herald.
 New York, October 29.-An the ordinary or surface indications are that Taft wins New York, and with New York, the pres idency.
 By the same indications Chanler is to defeat Hughes for governor.
 Under the surface are factors which have not been measured and cannot be measured, and which inevitably raise a question as to the accuracy of the meth ods, with which we usually gauge the vote of state In view of these peculiar factors I feel it a duty to warn my read CTS to bear in mind the possibility of a surprise on election day.
 It Is possible, though not probable, that New York may go for Bryan. It is more probable that both Taft and Hughes may carry the state, the latter by very slen- der margin.
 In fact New York is exceedingly close, even on the presidency; so close that while Taft apparently has a safe lead it would not be at all surprising to see this cut down almost to the vanishing point. The conditions this year are not unlike those of 1888. when the republicans won the state on presidency by 13,000 and lost it on governor by 19,0OO Or it is barely possible present conditions are more like 1892, when- Cleveland carried New York by 45,O0O
 There is grand total of nearly HOO, 900 votes in this state. There are clements of uncertainty which even the party or ganizations, with all their resources, have not been able to fathom. It must be more as a mere guess than as matter of knowledge, therefore, that anyone says he knows how the state is going.
 My information as to New York is prob ably as complete as that of anyone. It comes from both sides, from a great va rlety of sources It indicates, by the method of judging we have always fol- lowed in the past, a plurality for Taft of from 15,OOO to 90000. It indicates also that Hughes will run from 40,o00 to 6o.0OO votes behind Taft, and that Chanler will get the verdict.
 That Tammany is loyal to Bryan and dOllS tllc ptSI II Seil iS hHOMH lO d CtT- tainty. Tammany would not dare be treacherous, even if so inclined. It has a fight for control of the city coming on next year, and will need all the demo- cratic help it can get. On one side it fears Hearst, who is ready to gloat over Tammany's downfall, and on the other side it fears the rising tide of socialism.
 Pasidas if ic parcopa1I,, lxnnmp to ,,,a that Murphy, the Tammany leader, was offered large sums of money for cam paign use if he would agree to devote the funds to the getting of votes for Chanler and Taft, and he refused the offers. These sums were proffered by the heads of certain corporations which are deter mined to defeat Hughes. It was not re- publican money. I have been assured by some of the best informed democrats In New York, men who make 1t their busi- ness to know the truth, that Tammany is loyal to Bryan. Nor are the republican leaders treacherous in any way to Hughes, much as they dislike him.
 It is true that in the city the feeling against Hughes is so strong, even among republicans, that many of the republican district captains have virtually gone on strike and refused to work for the gov ernorship part of the ticket Some of them may have talked with Tammany workers about trading votes, and in spots a little of this may be done. But it is more an individual than an organization affair." and grows naturally out of the conditions