The San Francisco call. [volume] (San Francisco [Calif.]) 1895-1913, 1908-04-19
gS(,@ PANAMA CANAL a SOUND BUSINESS PROPOSITION

canal. which amount could be added 70
the tonnage OF the canal traffic origt-
mating and terminating in America
A great part e EurSv7'5 trade with
Australia and Japan viii find the Pan
anna route advantageous and viii ulti-
mately be detected from the present
route. This traffic is enormous and win
yield a considerable income to the canal
in years to come. The distances be-
tween Great Britain and sydney and
Yokohama by the Suez and by ths Pan
ANA routes are about the same. but the
Panama route will have the advantage
that vessels in going by America In
either direction on their way between
Europe and Japan or Australia WIN
pass many ports from which there Is
heavy export tonnage. thus making ne
new route more profitable than the old
IN estimating the amount OK eraf1c
which will be drawn to the new
route very conservative proper
tion has been counted on. IL has bean
assumed that 10 per cent OF the vessel
tonnage of the Australian trade with
the ports of northwestern Europe may
be counted on, and at least 5 per cent
OF the tonnage between these ports
and Japan will be drawn the same way.
Evens this trifing percentage would
total S16.22s tons. In all probability
it would be several times this figure
To total this estimate. therefore, we
a fAR
traffic beginning and terminating in
America. plus the 100000 tons OF Euro
pean trade, plus S16.223 tons. or IN all
4.9S1.075 tons-in round numbers
5000, 900 tons-which would have passed
through the Panama canal IN 1889 10
is obvious that this estimate is. IL any
thing, less than may reasonably be
expected.
This tonnage Is, Of course. based
upon figures 10 years old. and is By
no means fair estimate OF the traf-
hc between these same ports today.
The statistics show that the tonnage
OF vessels trafhcking between the two
coasts OF the United States and be-
tween the eastern United States and
the orient and between Europe and thu
Pacific Is increasing rapidly from year
to year. Between 1889 and 1893 ths
gain In tonnage available for the canal
was 25.01 per cent. while from 1893
TO the present time the gain has been
even more remarkable. The commercs
between Chile and Esrope increased
from 575.Ss0 tons in 1888 to 914,091
tons in 1898, or a gain of 5S.7 per cent,
and this remarkable rise has certainly
not disappeared since that date.
+HE estimate OF 100000 tons Of
traffic available In 1899 10 clearly
-
branch of trafic the amount OF tom
mage that could advantageously uss
the canal has increased. With this rats
OF increase as a guide 1t will be found
that the available canal trafic IN 1909
will be 6.257,249 tons. BY the close OF
1914, or about the time OF the proposed
opening of the canal the availabls
tonnage, estimated at the present rate
of increase. will be 100000. By the
year 1924. at the same rate OF increase,
the estimates show a tonnage OF H.
372.941.
It will be seen that the estimate OF
500, 000. 900 income for the first 10
years of the canal Is practically as
sured. If any mistake has been made
In this estimate the failure has been
not to make the figures high enough
The calculations have not allowed for
the immense stimulus which the open
ing OF the canal is certain to give to
trade on both seaboards OF the Amer
lean continent.
At present it is a matter OF regret. al
most of shame. that by far the greatest
part of the trade OF South America goes
directly to Europe 1t is only a short
time since IL has been possible to sail
from New York TO South American
ports without first going to Europe
With the opening of the Panama canal