The Aberdeen weekly. [volume] (Aberdeen, Miss.) 1878-1933, 1908-10-16
How Would War in Europe Eff
feet us.

With Europe wrought up over
recent developments in the Balkan
Peninsula, il is natural to ask how
the actual outbreak Of hostilities
would affect us. Modern commerce
is so complex that the question is
difficult TO answer. As a rule, the
markets discount, and perhaps
overdiscount, events Of this sort.
The first effects are already main
fest in large sales Of American Sc
curities. The international banks
instinctively strengthen themselves
i'm this way against a drain of cash
and prepare to float the loans which
the mobilization Of great armies
makes certain. London, Paris and
Berlin would necessarily be called
upon to provide vast sums, even If
England, Germany and France sue
ceeded keeping clear of the net In
such circumstances, our stocks and
bonds afford the readiest relief, be-
cause there il not the remotest pos
sibility that this country will be in
v0!ved. Whatever happens,
America s trade will 60 on and
New York is not likely to Toe dis
turbed. gexcept in a sentimental
sense.
In one respect a European war
would be aebOnanza for us. With
masses OF men summoned to the
colors, a dearth of labor in the
fields of the Old World would be
felt and an incaleulable demand for
foodstuffs would arise. Prices for
grain and provisions are high, but
would be much higher, if the strug-
gle were serious and protracted.
The farmers of the Western States
would reap the richest harvest they
have seen for years. But the bene-
fit would Toe a doubtful one in the
end, since consumers would be cor
respOndingly mulcted. The South
would at first be pinched by the
advance, for cotton is depressed by
the causes which lift wheat, corn
and pork But cotton also would
ultimately feel the stimulus of the
waste which a campaign implies
The soldiers uses up in a week as
much az the citizens uses up in
a month and All immense leeway
has to be made good when peace
comes. 1t was SO in the mighty
conflict of 1870 and be SO while
human nature remains what it is.
As to financial matters, the case
is somewhat different. Large inn
ports Of food and material would
leave Europe with an adverse bal
ance of mammoth proportions.
Now this balance would have to be
liquidated by shipments of gold,
or by further sales of our securities
in Wall Street. The latter method
would, no doubt, be used for every
ounce of gold would be needed to
strengthen the banking reserves
and supply the military chests.
The Bank Of England, the Bank of
France and the Reichsbank would
then be impellcd to raise the rates
of discount The higher charge
for money must, in turn, react up
on general trade and chill specula-
tive ardor. This very process was
seen when Great Britain was fight
ing at the Cape and when Japan
was hurting the Russian hosts
across Manchuria Capital was
consumed on the grand scale and
Consols sank point by point, as
fresh loans appeared. Even after
the return of peace. the shrinkage
in values did not stop. Indeed,
months rolled round before the eli
max came. It's an i'll wind that
blows no man good" but there are
times when the good is so mixed
with evil that the keenest visioned
observer is at fault There is, of
course. always a moment to buy
with ones eye shut. Nevertheless,
most people take the plunge too
soon, rather than too late
Yet with all these allowances,
history shows that profound dis
turbance aboard pours a golden
flood into our Golfers. We have to