The San Francisco call., 1908-10-18
NEW YORK WORLD
GIVES TAFT LEAD
Bryan Supporter Classes New
York, Ohio and Indiana
as Doubtful
srEcIAL plsPArcH 10 rHE cALL

SfEctAL DISPATCH TO THE CALL
NEW YORK, Oct. 1s.-The World
this morning presents the first gen.
eral canvass of political conditions as
that paper finds them in the zs so
called pivotal states of the 46 states
IL days before the election.
The results of the canvass refiec,
the earnest and impartial efforts of the
leading newspapers in the states of
Maryland, West Virginia, Ohio, In
diana, Wisconsin, Minnesota. North
Dakota, Iowa, Missouri, Kansas. Ne
braska, Wyoming, Montana, Colo
rado, Utah, Idaho, Washington, Ne
vada and California, and of the World
through it's correspondents in the states
Of New York. New Jersey and Con-
necticut These conditions may change
during the rest OF the campaign and
materially affect the indicated results.
but the World feels entirely justified in
presenting the estimate given this
morning as portraying the exact situ-
In compiling the accompanying table
showing the probable distribution of
the 443 electoral votes, the World has
placed in the doubtful column several
states which may ordinarily be credited
TO one candidate or the other. 1T has
done so for many and varied reasons
justified by the uncertainty regarding
clements that appear undergoing re-
adjustment and the final classification.
which cannot now with absolute ac-
curacy be determined.
FACTORS IN CAMPAIGN
1t is this element OF uncertainty that
impeis the World to accept the con-
clusion that the result Of the contest
for the presidency is in doubt, due to
the important causes that may be set
forth as follows:
1.-The injection in TO the campaign
for the presidency in some OF the west
ern states OF an insidious and dis
ing against the interest OF the repub-
lican candidate.
The tendency OF the labor vote to
break away from the control of all
parties, as illustrated in the surprising
spread Of the socialist cause both in
the east and the west.
s-The failure of both the republican
and democratic parties TO intelligently
approximate the distribution OF the
vote to be cast by an army of unem-
ployed-estimated in round numbers at
1.400, ,000 voters.
THE failure of both the republican
and the democratic managers to antici-
nate the distribution of the colored
vote in states where it has always been
classified as republican.
5-The complete absence of anything
suggesting an issue of general value to
vote getting potency TO either side.
MUST BE CONSIDERED
These five reasons cannot, in the
opinion of the World. be ignored in call
culating the final trend of the popular
vote or warrant the prejudiced claims
of the contesting managers. Their con-
ficting views are not shared by men
whose business In this compeis an tin-
biased observance of political condi-
tfons. The World, therefore, hesitates
TO accept the conclusion of the repub-
lican managers that the election OF Taft
is assured, or that the equally positive
assertions of the democratic manager
that there is no reason TO doubt their
statement that Bryan will have more
than 242 votes in the electoral college.
Private information that has reached
the heads OF most influential men in the
financial and Industrial world during
the last week has inspired doubt in their