Middletown transcript., 1908-10-10
MR.. BRYAN AND FIGURES
OF NEW YORK.

MR. BRYAN AND FIGURES
In a speech at Cedar Rapids,
Ia, Mr.. Bryan favored his hear
ers with these statistics
The failures Of the last nine months ex
ceed in number the failures of the CORES.
ponding nine months of 1893, and the
difference between assets and liabilities i
greater this year than it was in 1893, al
though the total amount OF the liabilities
was greater in 1898 than this year.
Mr.. Bryan had better let fig,
nres alone. He can juggle with
them, but he proves nothing by
them, because he does not give
all the facts.
Are failures larger in nine
months of 1903 than in nine
months of 1893? Two establish
ments collect returns on failures.
Dun's figures give failures for
nine months in 1908,-11, ,946, and
in 1893, 10,426 for nine months,
but Bradstreet's gives the num-
ber as 1851 in nine months of
1908 and LAO in nine months
of 1893. The difference is small
in either case. Authorities differ.
The number of failures varies in
the eount, as men reckon estab-
lishments, group associated cor
porations and firms together or
treat each as a separate failure.
When Mr.. Bryan lays stress on
a small difference in the number
of failures as proof of business
conditions he juggles and he Jug
giles, knowing that the figures
work either way as one author
ity or the other is selected.
The real measure is the aggre-
gate of liabilities. By Dun this
Was$179, ,677, 523 in 1908 and $751;
349, 400 in 1893. Liabilities are
barely tWo-thirds in 1908 what
they were in nine months of 1898.
But the proportion of assets to
liabilities, Mr.. Bryan asserts,
was higher in 1893 to 1908. Of
course it was. The worse the
panic the stronger the firms that
60 down. The stronger the firm
the bigger the assets. Between
panic years, in ordinary seasons,
when only weak6rms fail, assets
are under so per cent. of liabili-
ties. When a panic year comes
this proportion jumps, as it did
in 1898, to 20 per cent Brad
streets figures) and to 58.5 per
cent. in 1908.
The worse the season the larger
the relative assets, because strong
firms are more numerous. In
1896, when Mr.. Bryan was run
ming for the Presidency, the per
centage of assets rose to So per-
cent, and the number of firms
failing rose to level with 1908
and 1893.
But in all he says on failures
Mr.. Bryan omits the most i'm
portant fact Of all. From 1893
to 1908 the country gained in
wealth one-half, in number of
firms one-third, and tripled It's
bank credits and its business
transactions as measured by
bank deposits and by bank clear
ings.
If over 100000 more firms are
in business in 1908 than in 1898
a small increase in the number
of failures means that fewer
firms are failing relative to all
In business. If there are three
times as many credits and three
times as much business being
done, then liabilities Of $179, ,677,-
523 in 1908 are small by liabilities
of s251, ,349, 460 in 1893. Rela-
lively the liabilities of1908, instead
OF being tWo-shirds those of 1893,
are about a suarter in proper
tion to the business done and the
credits at risk.
The current year has been one
of depression and failure. Many
weak firms have succumbed, but
il proportion to national wealth, |
total business overturn, bank
credits, firms in business or out |
standing indebtedness, 1908 is
the best year, after q great fin
ancial convulsion, the country
has ever seen.
When Mr.. Bryan tries to make
it out the worst, he suppresses
the facts and uses half truth to-
make a deduction wholly false.