New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1908-11-30
voNEY AND BUSINESS.

result
buyine orders and the short account Is forced 10
cover contracts promptly or suffer lpss Al
though the fact is constantly mentioned that
nrices have not only risen above all records since
March 1907 but are about one-thrd above the
position a year ago, there is no Indication Oh
setback Warnings of this nature are met oS
the convincing argument that TINS advance
should proceed much more rapidly than the re-
coyArv In actual conditions. because the decline
last wear similarly oVerdiscounted the extent Vi
the contraction of trade and transportation
Nevertheless it is not only possible but prop
able that enthusiasm and manipulation VIII
carry the present advance to a point from whch
the reaction will be severe; but there Is nothing
in sight upon which to base predictions OF the
date Wall Street is absorbing new issues read
iIy railroad earnings now at about the posi-
ton Of this time In 1907. and steadily rising
while the market Is flooded with promises OF IN
creased dividends and other good news ne"
Erie bond plan is Of the latest developments
and there is much Of this helpful financing under
considerat ton that should tend to improve con-
ditions
Money is so cheap that new undertakings re-
ceive every encouragement, which also applies
to speculative excuses. Call loans are made at
~ per cent or less and time money on Stock
Exchange collateral can be had in abundance at
%. per cent for short terms and 81 per cent for
longer periods. Even commercial paper sells
readily at per cent, while some especially
choice names are taken at still better terms.
There are many reasons why the market should
harden some time next year but Just now the
banks hold abnormal reserves. Aside from a
little movement to Canada and San Francisco,
there Is a favorable balance on interior trans
fers, but the Treasury withdrawal of 100000
government deposits will reduce local cash hold
nIIo1t he aHe dred
banks, 1t is proba bic that most Of them will re
spond by drafts on New York correspondents.
This operation and the Philippine bond issue will
restore normal working balance in the federal
Treasury, yet regular operations show steady
increase in the deficit for the fiscal year, despite
gain in revenues trade improves. For
egn exchange was advanced still further partly
because of the relatively higher money market
abroad and also to some extent by speculative
purchases. Silver bullion declined to within one
penny of the low record at London, while the
United States Treasury made some purchases
for coinage at the satisfactory price of 4ss4
cents.
Irregularity in trade reports is chieny due to
the weather. retail sales OF heavyweight wear
Ing apparel being retarded by high temperature
in most sections. Lack OF rain is also an ad-
verse factor while another holiday last week re-
duced the total volume"of transactions In the
face of this restriction there is an unmistakabIe
tendency to prepare for normal conditions and
country merchants are especially urgent in call
ing for winter supplies. Holiday goods
also distributed freely. and the whole bust
ness atmosphere is full of confidence Foreign
commerce is returning TO normal. and there is
10 evidence that imports are deferred by prep
arations for tariff reduction More figures OF
immigration indicate that the tide has turned
although no heavy movement in this direction
can be expected until spring. Commodity mar
kets gain strength steadily. especially the raw
materials for several leading industries Wool
is in brisk demand at Eastern markets and the
London auction sale is attracting vigorous COM
petition. resulting in higher prices. Silk and
rubber have sold freely. and the final passage
of the Sac Paulo bond bill helped the coffee
market somewhat, although the heavy move
ment at Brazilian ports had previously depressed
the December option below five cents
slight increase in local stocks of cotton
tended to weaken this market. and there was
some pressure to sell against purchases at Liv-
erpoo and the South. Another factor that did
not tend to advance quotations was the esti-
mate of the crop by 10 members of the New
York Cotton Exchange, avera ging Is 321 900
bales This big figure was followed by Mr. Ell
lison's prediction that total requirements of
American cotton would be only T., 43S 900 bales.
Last weeks statistics Of movement were fairly
encouraging, exports exceeding those of the
same week'in 1907 by more than 10000 bales
while Northern spinners continued to buy more
freely, but the quantity that into sight
was over 10000 bales greater than a year ago
Spot middling uplands is $40 a bale
cheaper than at this date aS year. and is the
lowest for the season in any year since 1902
Moderate rains in the Southwest improved the
winter wheat outlook. but much more moisture
is needed to produce anything like really encour-
aging conditions. Receipts AT primary markets
continue heavy. yet there is a good foreign de-
mand while Northwestern mills have increased
OUTPUT to about two thirds of full capacity. Al
though the visible supply OF wheat is almost
unprecedentedly heavy for the season, prices
are maintained at abnormal position by large
speculative interests at the West. which are
now believed 10 have accumulation of 20
OO0OOO bushels.
The best news still comes from the leading man
ufacturing industries. contracts being placed in
sufficient numbers warrant further enlarge
ment of production and supplying work to more
men Textile plants have made notable prog
ress woollen mills receiving good orders for the
spring trade. although retail business is handi-
capped by the mild season. Cotton mills in
crease output and insist on full prices bids at
concessions receiving no consideration. Export
trade Is slow TO recover, although several mod
crate sales are recorded. Footwear factories
have started spring cutting. orders coming for
ward literally. and shipments from Boston on |
current business larger than a year ago |
Shoe manufacturers reluctant TO accept
business beyond the stock of material on |
hand, as the upward tendency of hides and
leather will soon eliminate all profits unless an
advance is made in the finished product Steel
mills have very large railway contracts in pros |
pect. although thus far actual orders have been |
moderate. Structural business is good plates |