Evening star., 1908-01-26
Financial News Letter
BY ". G. NICHOLAS.

CuIlllSS OIl lile DiS stump nave peSH dUie ~
unload quite bunch of their merchandise
on the public during the rise in prices
which occurred the first twenty days in
January. That was whatithe market was
put up for The rise, which was partly
manipulated and partly due to natural
causes. was entirely acceptable to the
stock exchange element and to the money
combinations of Wall street. There is no
way of arriving at an intelligent esti-
mate of the amount of stocks distributed
on the advance. but the aggregate must
have been very considerable. 1t was
enough at least to afford the badly ha-
rassed Wall street interests substantial
relief. The general public hse been the
principal buyer. and although there may
be material reaction from the h 81 prices
made in January there will probably not
be dollar lost on purchases made Tor
investment account anywhere down the
line, except in cases where corporations
are hopelessly mismanaged and in bad
hands.
The banking situation has worked back
to normal as fast as the most optimistic
had dared to hope. Reserves are now
away above legal requirements, clearing
house certificates are about all retired
and money has again got within reach OF
solvent borrowers at rates which attract.
The industrial and trade situation shows
improvement in many quarters, and peo-
pie are again beginning to permit them
selves to really believe what they say
when diScourSing bravely on the outlooE.
There remains, however, a very In
fluental element which will not believe
that there can be a permanent return or
good times until the national political SIT
uation clears. They take the position
that the panic having been largely caused
by polit cal agitation against property
people of affairs will not re-engage In en-
terprise until they can be assured OF
rest and until it becomes apparent tha'
we are no. to undergo another toNr .ears
of unrest and uncertainty. Tins elemsAt
is looking forward to the national conven-
tion of the two great parties next sum-
mer. cr until such time as the EN-
denotes are sufficiently we'll locata L. TO
make them reasonably sure of what the
future may hold in store for them in a
pre- sid ntial way. This unpleasantiv re-
fractory element In the financial and
banking world stubbornly insists that all
doubt must be set at rest as to WA3ther
the country is to have another term or
antagonism to property. either by alrect
or conferred presidential Successorshfp.
before timid capital can be expected to
come out of it's shell. Investment money
and capital available for the develoi ment
of the resources of the country must
needs be encouraged, they say, before
departing from lines of least resistance
and getting once more into rough and
tumble activity. With the big stick and
multitude of cumulative little sticks at
tacking the title of corporate secAfHles
all over the country. money will natural
ly remain diffident and keep out o. dan
ger, SO the pessimists ins st. This view
is held by a great many people III and
out of Wall street who are more or less
influential factors in the general business
situation. They may take narrow view
of things. and probably do. but the. are
fhntr toll md
influence to check the boomers and to
contribute their full share to whatever
there may be of doubt. They must there
fore be considered. Wall street W II give
increasing attention to presidential poll
tics until the action of the rival conven-
tions gives a better line on November re-
suits than is now obtainable 1t is argu-
ing that if Mr.. Roosevelt controls the re-
publican convention and nomlnates MS
man the democratic convention Will per-
force name a conservative. in which event
doubt as to the outcome may last until
November. The argument further en-
braces the proposition that II conserVa-
tism is expressed in the nomination or
Hughes or Fairbanks or Cannon the
democrats will name a radical and the re-
suit will then be foregone. In this latter
midsummer contingency they look for the
good times to begin in early autumn. and
assume permanent form. All OF waich
is submitted for what it is worth as gos-
at the present writing.
Among those in this country who are
not broke or even severely bent may be
enumerated the farmers. the planters. the
stock raisers, the cotton manufacturers
and the great mass of investors who own
their securities outright and who 90 not
bother much about the ups and downs
of quotations as long as they get their
dividends and interest. Farmers during
the twelve months of the panic year OF
q ,, y y1cr
they raised, including wheat. corn, cats.
hay. cotton, live stock and everything else
that grows out of the ground or reeds
thereon of market value. They have lad
long series of years of uninterrupted
prosperity and are rich beyond calcula-
ton. Manufacturers for the most part
haG en- months of Fecord-making buSi-
ness and profit. Railroads made phe-
nomenal earnings and nearly every line
of industry was going under full headway
right up to the edge of the panic Labor
had grown almost arrogant by reason OF
long years of uninterrupted high wages,
growing higher year by year. The coun-
try as a whole and in most of its details
was in better condition to Withstand
period Of stagnat.on than ever before at
the beginning of any panic in our history.
There never was SO much money In cir
culation either in bulk or In capita, the
last governmental report from the federal
Treasury showing the per capita circula-
ton to have reached nearly $36, Or al
most double what 1t was half a genera
ton ago. 1t will be seen that the situa
tion is chock full of the elements of re-
cuperative energy and that there is good
and substantial ground for the hope that
our hard times may be of short duration.
Official statistics of the business of the
steel trust for the last quarter OF 1907
are lacking, but the amount IS not far
from S31 SOC, 900, against approximately
S43, 100000 the preceding quarter. Earn
ings for October were about $4,000, 900,
and for November and December less
than $14 4,OOO. 600 combined. From what is
known Of the January results insiders are
making the prediction that net earnings
for the first three months Of 1908 will not
largely exceed $2O,O00,O 900, or just about
enough to meet fixed charges. Between
As and 30 per cent OF the capacity of the
cember the active capacity was down to
20 per cent. In q general way it may be
said that the iron and steel business Is
showing slight Improvement, but there is
a decided uncertainty as to whether this
IS temporary or lasting. The
weak feature is the softness in pig iron.
Meetings among the big producers for the
purpose of maintaining prices have been
almost continuous and there has been ad-
journment without affirmative acton 1t
Is an open secret that Birmingham pig
iron has been selling within the, last
few days upon a bass of $12.
From an International standpoint the
United States is very comfortably sit
uated. Our exports during November and
December were phenomenal and the bal
ance in trade our way approximating
500, 100000 January VII not show up
quite SO well. which is a .,ood thing. II
this country kept UP the November and
December pace it would bankrupt the
world. In contrast to this splendid rec
ord of exports is the marked falling of
of imports especially of luxurieS. Uncle