The Pacific commercial advertiser. [volume] (Honolulu, Hawaiian Islands) 1885-1921, 1908-06-01

The Vice President Becomes
Festive at R00SeVeIt'S
Treatment.

| West, so the political generals IN wash
| ington now believe. All the maneuver-
| ing of late has been on that basis, es-
pecialIy since it seemed certain that
the Democrats were going to nominate
Bryan.
Ohio and Indiana Republicans have
been saying repeatedly that their
States are in the doubtful column. Hi
nois has voted for but one Democratic
President since the Civil War, and is
generally regarded as a Republican
Gibraltar. 1t is presumably safely Re
publican this year, but the same forces
of party Generalization have been at
work in Illinois as in Indiana and
Ohio. All three States have a large
population of negroes and large pop
ulation of union laborers. In all three
affection because of the conduct of Re-
publican State officials. Illinois is ex-
pected to renominate Governor Deneen,
who has made many enemies. Senator
Shelby Cullom is the only Republican
ever elected for a second term as Gov
ernOr of that State.
1t has become an axiom among politi-
cal statisticIans that the Democratic
party cannot elect a President without
New York. 1t is still true, probably,
not so true, however, but that the Re
publican National Committee will feel
warranted in giving Illinois, as well as
Ohio and Indiana, very close attention
during the coming campaign.
The wisdom of this is easily demon
strated. Illinois has ~ votes in the
electoral college; Indiana, 10; Ohio, %
-65 for the three States. There are
fifteen Southern States, not including
West Virginia, all. of which, with the
possible exception of Maryland with s
votes, are certainly Democratic. They
have a total of 166 votes in the cleo
toral college. Should conditions de-
velop by which the Democrats carry
the three Middle States mentioned the
party would have a total of 221 votes,
within 10 of enough to elect a Presi-
dent. Nevada and Montana are more
likely to go for Bryan than for the Re-
publican nominee-six votes more.
There is doubt about Utah this year,
because of Republican dissensions-
three votes more. Give the Democrats
the three Middle Western States and
three States In the Far West and they.
have 230 electoral votes, which is with
in four votes of a majority. That
would be too close for comfort, par
ticularly when there would be chance,
perhaps improbable, that Nebraska
might slip up, as happened in 1896, and
vote for the favorite son of her Demo-
Gratis and Populists. Nebraska has
eight votes, which would be more than
enough,
An outcome of the presidential cleo
ton along those lines may be remote,
probably is, for Roosevelt is popular
in those States of the Middle and Far
West and is going to do his utmost to
elect his favorite to the presidency.
But, should the West and the Far
West, by any chance during the cam
paign, become convinced that the Re-
publican nominee was in sympathy
with Eastern interests and with Wall
Street. there would certainly be
trouble ahead for him.
The political generals have little
fear for New York. New Jersey and
Connecticut, the old combination Of
States by which presidential nominees
won or lost. The fight there, as plans
are shaping up now, Will be for the
State and local tickets. Since Okla
homa, with seven sure Democratic
electoral votes, came into the Union,
the West is a little nearer than ever
to holding the scepter of political
power in presidential elections when
ever combination with Southern
States becomes possible. Then the
Middle Western States have increas-
ingly large city populations. The big
cities, with very few exceptions. are
safely Democratic. Industrial condi-
tons in the West are likely to help
the Democrats this year.
For all these reasons and for moro
that might be enumerated, the Repub-
icans are preparing to make their
national campaign in the West. Such
considerations have had weight in the
very recent talk about renominating
Vice President Fairbanks, because it
has been claimed that he could hold
Indiana in line. The triumps of the
Republicans in any one of the three
big Middle Western States, of course,
would break the only possible success
full Democratic combination, for it is
generally taken for granted that
Bryan has no prospect whatever of
carrying New York. or any Eastern
State north of Maryland.
There is a lot of buzzing around the
Capitol about a change of attitude be-
tween Vice President Fairbanks and
President Roosevelt. Looks like there
might be something doing between
those two everyone is saying. The
Vice President has broken silence
about the Presidents policies. Those
who have known how he has been siz-
zling inwardly for many months about
the Presidents treatment of him think
there may be more coming.
Probably no Vice President ever was
more careful than Vice President
Fairbanks has been to keep on
friendly terms with the man who IS
his only otficia1 superior No unkindly
criticism of the President escaped his
lips. although for years the Capital has
been full of unfriendly talk by Re-
publicans about Roosevelt. In the