The Topeka state journal. [volume] (Topeka, Kansas) 1892-1980, 1908-10-08
AS in Many Previous Elections
Choice of President
Is Believed to Rest With the
Empire State.
HUGHES is A FACTOR.
He Is Expected to Help Taft
Carry the State.
He Is a Bigger Man Today Than
Ever Before.

Albany, N. T., Oct. Sit Is not
stretching the truth to say that the
presidential campaign of 1908 depends
upon the vote of the state of New
York, just as other presidential cam
paigns for years back have centered
around the Empire commonwealth. II
you look back into the political history
of the United States you will find that
the state of New York. always pos
sessing the largest individual electoral
vote of any state in the Union. has al
ways been the thermometer by which
presidential results have been read.
The situation today is only a little
different from the situation in years
previous. If Mr.. Bryan can carry ev-
cry state which Parker carried in 1904
and which Bryan himself. carried in
1896 and 1900 he can, with the electoral
vote of New York. be elected to the
presidency.
Again, therefore the political COM
plexion of New York becomes of vital
concern, as 1t has many and many a
day in the campaign calendar of previ-
Gus years. When it is remembered
that but three presidents of the United
States were elected without the cleo
toral vote of New York in the cleo
toral college 1t may be recalled what
the electoral vote of New York means.
Buchanan in 1856, Grant in 1868, and
Hayes in 1876 are the only candidates
for president who ever received a COM
mission without the electoral support
of New York. Not only are these three
the only nominees who ever succeeded
without New York but in addition
there are many candidates whom New
York has supported who would never
have won had the New York vote been
changed. For example, in 1874 Polk
received 40 votes to Clays los in the
electoral college. New York's vote in
the college was Sc for Polk. Had New
York cast her SO votes for Clay he
would have been elected president. In
for Cass and New York cast her 36
votes for Taylor. Had New York gone
for Cass the Michigander would have
succeeded to the presidency.
Election of 1884.
In 1884 probably the most striking
example in history of the political
power and prestige of New York ap-
pears. This was the memorable cam
paign between Cleveland and Blaine.
In the electoral college Creveland's
vote was 219. Blaine's was 1872. New
York cast her vote for Cleveland but
Cleveland carried New York by just
1,149 votes in a total far exceeding
one million ballots. In other words,
in 1884 the change of 600 votes out
of more than a million in New York
would have elected Blaine to the
presidency instead of Cleveland, at
the time of his first term.
With such precedentS at hand 1t Is
no wonder that the political prophet
comes first to New York for a study
of political problems In 1908 the
Republican will tell you that Bryan
cannot be elected even If he carried
New York, because of the fact that
in addition to New York he must hold
every state which Parker had in 1904,
and which he himself had in the two
campaigns preceding. But. on the
he navo mill %1lv
YOU that Bryan is to have not only all
this other vote but Indiana, Illinois,
Ohio, Oklahoma, possibly West Vir-
ginia and then sovereign New York
in addition.
But New York has been quite safely
Republican for a number of years
past. In 1904 New York turned in
S59,533 ballots for Roosevelt as
against 6S3,9S1 votes for Parker and
it must be remembered that Parker
as we'll as Roosevelt was a native son
of New York. In other words, when
the interest aroused nationally by the
presence of a native New Yorker on
the ticket was equally divided be-
tween the Republican and Democratic
ticket, New York chose the Repub-
lican nominee by 175,000 majority.
This year the Republican ticket offers
a native New Yorker for vice presi-
dent, and it must not be forgotten
that this will surely be a magnet to
draw some votes.
What New York thinks of Mr.. Bry-
an, however is suggested to some de-
gree by the vote it gave him when he
ran the last two times. In 1900 New
York gave. Mckinley s21,992, and 1t
gave Mr.. Bryan 67s,3S6. In 1898
New York gave Mr.. Mckinley S1e,83S
and Mr.. Bryan 551.369. In other
words, New York gave Mr.. Bryan
$4,000 more votes the second time
he ran than 1t did the first. If this
ratio of increased affection apparent
from 1896 to 1900 could be maintained
in the eight years from 1900 to 1908.
BRYAN would carry New York in 1908
by a comfortable majority.
Bryan's Chances.
But can Mr.. Bryan hope for any
such ratio?
The first place to look for an answer
is in the comparative strength of the
opposing party candidates for gov
ernor. Governor Charles E. Hughes on
the Republican side, and Lieutenant
Governor Stuyvesant Chanler on the
Democratic side. 1t must not be for
gotten that Bryan and Chanler this
year have the united support of. Tam
many, Charles Murphy and Fingy Con-
ners. 1t must not be forgotten that
Governor Hughes made many bitter
enemies by standing sponsor for legis-
lation which was marked by desperate
unpopuiarity in many sections of the
state. 1t must not be forgotten that
Chanler comes from old New York
stock with a pedigree which is linked
with the best families the Empire state
ever produced. 1t must not be forgot
ten that Chanler was sufficiently pop
ular to be elected lieutenant governor
on the Democratic ticket when the
state went Republican for Hughes. In
other words 1t must be admitted that
| the head of the Democratic ticket In
| the Empire state is strong PROPOSE
Il ID .fpc co4ff inc de- 1r,r1 4@x, 81 -