The comet. (Johnson City, Tenn.) 1884-1916, 1908-10-29
BY REPUBLICANS
AND DEMOCRATS.
DRIFTING TOWARD BRYAN.
Democrats Have Certain Vote Of
AS and Republicans 140 and
the Tide is With Us.

EVERY preSluenIIal elecUlOn Is more
or less a gamble. AS there is always a
possibility of tidal wave, no one can
tell just how the wave will flow or
whether it will flow at all.
Every man forecasts the election ac-
cording to his own desire or environ
ment. New England, for instance, is
apt to go solidly for Taft; consequently
the average New Englander is inclined
to think that the entire country is go
ing for the republican candidate.
In the south, on the other hand, the
general drift is toward Bryan; conse-
quently the average southerner, seeing
that all his neighbors are for Bryan, is
apt to conclude that the entire country
is for Bryan.
Both the southerner and the New
Englander may be mistaken. In other
words, the solid south and solid New
England may offset one another.
There are certain states assuredly
democratic and certain states assuredly
republican. The New York Herald, q
disinterested onlooker in Vienna, has
been making canvass without regard
to the predictions of either party, and
this information we may use without
being liable to the charge of partiality
According to the Herald, the only
states reasonably sure for Taft are Cali
fornia, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois
Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts,, Michigan
Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jer
sey, North Dakota, Pennsylvania
Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington
West Virginia and Wyoming with
total of 1888 votes.
Now, we do not regard all these state
as surely republican. The proposal t
guarantee bank deposits is very popu
lar in Minnesota, Michigan, Nortl
Dakota, Washington, Oregon and WY
oming, and West Virginia is a doubtful
quantity. Thus forty-eight votes ar
in the balance, reducing the certain rt
publican vote to l40.
! The reasonably sure democratic vott
according to the Herald, embraces tn
states of Alabama, Arkansas, Florid;
Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mary
land, Mississippi, Missouri, North Ca
olina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tel
nessee, Texas and Virginia, with a
} electoral vote of 1865. Admitting thu
Kentucky and Maryland are doubtful
we have certain vote of 145.
Thus the certain democratic vote
greater than the certain republica
vote.
: According to the Herald, the doub
full states are New York, Kansas, Id
no, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nebrask
Montana Nevada, Indiana, South ID
E kota, Ohio and Utah, with a total
129 electoral votes. These, with Il
D other votes we consider doubtful, NAL
: a total of 1893 votes that are to be scrar
bled for.
Now taking the estimates made !
republican and independent paper
: ! Bryan has chance to carry NewYol
!. 80, Kansas 10, Colorado 5, Nebraska
Q Nevada3, Idaho 3, Montana 3, Indiai
{ Is, South Dakota 4, Ohio %, Utah
I Kentucky 13, and Maryland s. ToSs
: 141.
}, Thus Bryan has reasonable chan
G to carry 2S6 votes. Indeed, it is mus
more likely that he will carry til
many votes than that Taft will car
. New York, Ohio, Indiana, Kanss
Colorado and several other weste
+ states, and we have not taken Wisco
sin into consideration.
1t seems to us that the odds are all
favor of Mr.. Bryan, even giving N
Taft the benefit of several states tn
we regard as certain to go Democrat
OF course, there may be an undercr
rent in favor of Taft that we can II
see, but then again the undercurre
may be in favor of Bryan. OF colIrs
Taft is the favorite I'M the betting, b
this counts for nothing. John L. ST
livan was the favorite when he was q
feated by Corbett, and Corbett was t
favorite when he was defeated by Fiji
simmons.
We believe the outlook is very fave
able for democratic success. The peoI
seem to be anxious for change. The