The Washington herald., 1908-08-23
CUTS CROP ESTIMATE
Chicago Bank Seeks to Show
Census Figures Wrong.
ITS AUTUMN COMPILATION
Facts Gathered by Special COrre-
spOndents disappointing to Grain
Speculative BOOmers-Wheat, Corn,
Oats, and Barley Statistics Re-
dueed by InstitutiOn's Data.

AT intervals the Commercial National
/ Bank Of Chicago issues report on gen
eral financial. commercial. and industrial
! conditions, with special reference TO the
Northwest From advance sheets Of this
report the following summary OF crop
/ conditions is taken:
/ Wheat-Serious discrepancies exist this
/ year between the governments crop ex-
! pectancy and the figures arrived al by
/ our correspondents IN the grain States
and those reached by the most authort-
/ tatiye private estimators. According 20
/ the usual PARTIES and using the govern
I ments acreage figures. crop condition
/ percentages august I indicated final
yields as follows Winter wheat, $500
/ 90. against an Official yield in I9g7 OF
4o9. ~ 900: spring wheat. 3zS. coo 600. against
the 1907 final Of 224, go: or a total indi-
/ Gated wheat crop Of nearly 67Z0C00o1
I against about s34 o00. 600 last year.
/ The opinion Of the foremost private aU-
/ th0rities Is that the governments ind
{ Gated yield Is at least 100000 bushels
4 too high for spring wheat and about 81
I 10000 too high for winter wheat. Since
/ August the spring wheat crop suffered
! extreme drought aud fungus damage N
I the Northwest: and the bureau estimate
. Of winter wheat production does not take
into account acreage abandoned OF other
wise lost from the harvest The Illinois
! Yield, as officially reported BY State au-
thorities. reaches hardly 50000 00Q. against
a government indication Of 0.2l2.0o9-
Ignores Loss by Floods.
4 Good opinion in the trade Is that The
I bureau figures ignore loss by foods IN
! Indiana, Texas, Kansas. Missouri and
Z Oklahoma Il Is asserted by travclirS
observers that thousands Of acres in
I those regions were not cut at ali and
( that large areas VIII produce rom thee
TO ten bushels per acre az the thrasher.
{ The belief Of an. accepted crop authority
is that the winter wheat crop will Iun
100000 under the governments inIicaL-
I ed crop because Of the bureaus failure
20 eliminate 100000 acres lost by Hood
and drought and by the use Of an acre
average yield higher than the thrasning
results warrant Reports from our own
I sources throughout the belt are exceed
ilgiy uneven. but when tabulated .slth-
out weighing show a total crop 27.1y3 9C9
bushels under the August Indication OF
the government.
Summing Up. We feel justified IN CON
cludIng that the 1905 crop OF merchant
able wheat viii scarcely equal that -atn-
cred last year Considering the low
worlds stocks and the depleted reserves
IN retail hands everywhere. with an II
D E@Al1DAE EIoLE EAENEL demand SENS
reasonable % expect a high level Of prices
for bTeadstuffs throughout the crop year.
I Co-n-Ou the basis OF the crop-reQ0rI-
ing bureaus August estimate. the weld
Of maize indicated IS 2665 - 600 bushels.
I against s2,S10.0Q0 IN the final estimate
for 1s17. Our own correspondents q the
belt. basiEg their estimates on extensive
: inquiries. indicate a yield smaller Jnzn
Isj5 by - Per cent This suggests q crop
.-.= j. -
The important matter 20 consider Il Is
tirnating the corn crop IS that there was
far more than the usual amount OF re-
planting this spring. and that large areas
were drowned out and put lao other
crops. These losses cannot have been de-
7 Quoted from the 1dls5l0.060 acreage used
7 as The basis Of government esJfGaat -.
The measured crop II Is5- was OF very
inferior quality II nas zen estimate q
B. by careful handlers that the crop reduced
b 10 marketable grain II standard weight
4 amounted 10 80 10e.6G0 bu shells less than
the final yield estimate o. IRE g0ve-1-
nent. The seed corn from jhat crop was
: low in vitality. unless specially selected
! and hre-dried at harvest
Reports from important areas show
much conflict Of opinion. but the oest in
formed men in the merchant gTSin trade
are coming 10 believe that the 1918 total
? viii be little II any larger than the crop
, Of 1871 under the best possible maturing
p conditions. Fortunately the danger incl
B dent 10 pollinati0n has been avoided The
danger now feared is that premature low
/: temperatures may prevent normal nlatlr-
, ing Of the crop IN the nortb-central part
. OF the belt At this tine the plant IS
I making fine progress Visible stocks @.
b corn are extremely low. and the amount
Of old grain IN farmers hands AZ the end
/. OF the crop year cannot but be much
? lower than usual The price has ruled
? high in spite Of great business depression
. and reduced consumption during the frs'
I half OF 1865. and It seems inevitable that
: prices will be fully sustained. If not ad-
, vanced. with gradual revival Of business
p activity.
- Oats Forecast Cut Down
!; Oats-The governments June indication
. was for an oats crop of los. .O00Oo0 bush
els. The July percentage figures reduced
this estimate to 976.000000. The August
report showed further sensational i'm
pairment, indicating SD. 20 90 bushels
1 The reports OF our correspondents
drawn from information at first hands
: suggest that even this forecast is muCl
4 above the actual truth as Il VIII be re
: vealed at the thrasher. TabUlating oul
, reports without assigning weights for 10
cality. It appears that the total oats croI
: viii be about 742o00.o09 bushels.
Even If the yield is Of standard quality
> which IS almost impossible. considering
!. the poor quality OF the seed drilled il
j; nearly all States. the quantity viii be faI
: under consumptive requirements In ordi
nary times Any marked revival Of tradt
p and industry will produce q disparity be
tween supply and demand which cannO
a but be conspicuous in the price level. OF
); the whole it seems valid to expect TO set
present high prices maintained during
I, / the year
/ Barley and Rye-The governments in
l 1 diications Of 156. .04I Geo bushels as the fina