The Washington herald., 1908-03-02


New York, March 1.-The real develop
ment Of interest last week in the fnan-
ciai district was distinct ard unmistak-
able signs for the FIRST time Of an i'm
provement in general business
The Improvement IS slight, but II is
well defined. and Il seems TO be the opin-
ion OF cur best dHanciers and most con
seTvative observers or business coudi-
tons shat It is likely TO continue. even il
Tor some time It may not prove in the
aggregate 10 be very considerable II con-
sists in this mostly. that there has been
a revival OF buying in many lines OF
trade which is for the moment Of hand
to-mOuth character. but which. on the
other hand, seems likely TO be continuous.
People are finding out that the country
IS not going 20 the dogs. that the banks
are safe. that the great agricultural por-
ton Of the country has been practically
untouched by the financial troubles. and
that consumption in this quarter OF ali
kinds OF materials and products viii be.
though reduced from that OF last year.
still enormous. that particularly favor
able feature OF the present situation IS
that stocks Of goods in the hands OF re-
/ tailers. wholesalers. and manufacturers
alike are small. and that an immense
amount OF Idle money Is piling up in
banks and places OF deposit all over the
world that must sooner or later seek in
vestment
Iron and Steel Trade Good.
haps. in the iron and steel trade. The
output OF the United states Steel Cor
pOrati0n. which al the end OF last year
was 2S per cent Of the capacity Of the
corporation. is now 81 per cent; and or
ders for steel tonnage. which at a former
period were running only at the rate OF
1000 OF 5000 tons a day. are now Up 10
1900 tons. Another way Of putting the
matter is that the business Of the Steel
Corporation was . per cent better in
January than II was last December. and
IN the present month has been % per
cent better than il was in January. Il IS
10 be remembered. OF course. that the
basis on which these percentages are ca
culated IS comparatively small; but the
important feature IS that business IS en-
larging and not diminishing
Il is the view strongly held by those
most experienced IN this trade that al
though business for the year 1908 VIII be
probably decidedly less than that OF 1907.
il viii stin be so large IN the total as 10
make the period fair business year. and
one that Will compare favOrably with any
except the boom years Of the recent past
Railroads Order Less.
The railroads viii be ordering less ma
terial than they did last year, and sales
OF structural iron viii presumably be
smaller. but nevertheless certain guam
tity o. rail- and structural orders for iron
must be placed, and II is anticipated that
these VIII be at least half OF those placed
last year. while the general run OF orders
for the smaller forms Of iron and steel
articles is not likely 10 be curtailed IN
nearly SO great a degree. and foreign
purchases OF iron and steel products will
be greatly stimulated. Basis for this
opinion IS not one or mere probability.
but has reference 70 developments in the
trade that have gone on since the period
OF depression began
There were other clements OF encour-
|agement In the general situation last week
which. If they were not enthusiastically
appreciated among the rank and file OF
SPECTATORS in Wall street. were YET dWelr
upon in the great banking houses and IN
all conversation among thoughtful men.
One OF these IS The increase IN the eff
cheney of labor that has recently come
about. The anxiety among the laSoring
men OF the country at present is not 70
get more pay but 20 hold on % their jobs
They see their fellows laid or on every
hand, and each one Of these who has been
kept al work IS wondering If his tGra VIII
come next
LnbOreFS work Harder.
They are. therefore. working with a
marvellous briskness and vigor as com
pared with that which animated them
little time ago. and the railroads and
manufacturing establishments OF the
country are already beginning 10 feel the
benefit Of IT, Again. the discharge OF labor
that has already taken place on such a
large scale and in so many directions has
had the effect Of releasing labor for agri-
cultural employment so that the planting
and harvesting Of the crops this year wiz
unquestionably be conducted by the farm
ers with less difficulty than they have ex-
/ perienced for a long time
1t should be said in this relation that
the outlook for the crops this year is ex-
ccllent SO far as II has made Itself shown.
There has been an ample supply Of snow
covering over the winter wheat belt and
all the agricultural trade journals speak
optimisticslly Of the conditions OF the
winter. taken as q whole.
There WAS no change worthy Of mention
in sterling exchange or money rates last
week. and the financial situation. strictly
considered, remained on an even keel
Firm Vnderfone.
With regard to the stock market itself.
I a frmer undertone was manifested. al
though the market has plainly passed into
that condition Of equilibrium which al
most Invariably comes after a secondary
decline in prices following a period OF
acute financial disturbance. Events 50
shape themselves sooner or later under
such conditions that although general
pessimism is stiR dark and only the most
/ venturesOme spectators think Of buying
y stocks for the rise liquidation in the mar
ket nevertheless ceases and the great
majority Of people VINO are not already IN
volVed in commitments find themselves
u.Iwilling 20 make the further comsait-
ments. either for the rise or the fall until
they see the market animated by the
presence OF new forces Prices OF stocks.
however. al such times derive great mega
tive advantage from one circumstances,
namely, the existence Of a large "uncov-
cred short interest IN stocks which finds
the market dead on its hands
one unfavOrable development after an
other occurs. but they are all recognized