The Pacific commercial advertiser. [volume] (Honolulu, Hawaiian Islands) 1885-1921, 1908-09-12
THINK BRYAN WILL
NEARLY WIN It,
BUT NOT QUITE
Continued from Page Nine.1

Continued from Page Nine.)
probable that Taft viii carry Kansas,
for several years Overwhelmingly Re-
publican.
All of which leads to the inevitable
conclusion, that as the campaign enters
upon the month of September, Taft S
necessities as the Republican candidate
are chiefly in holding New York. Bar
ring western landslide for Bryan,
Taft cannot be defeated as long as New
York IL with him.
Much is heard in Washington now
adays about the likelihood of such a
landslide There have been two in
presidential years, without going back
to the landslide that concluded the sec
ond Grant campaign. Both came praeti-
cally unheralded One brought Cleve-
land into Office in 1892; the other
brought Roosevelt in for another term
in 1904 Neither was strictly land
slide. Voters of the defeated party
stayed at home by hundreds of thou
sands those years.
The two leading parties polled
100000 votes in 1883, when Harrison
was elected; 100000 in 1892 when
Cleveland was elected. The normal
increase in voters is about 100000 every
four years The same parties polled a
strength of 13,50O,000 in 1900, when
Mckinley defeated Bryan a second
time; 100000 when Roosevelt over
whelmingly defeated Parker 1t has
been claimed that many Democrats
that year, apart from those who stayed
at home or voted for Roosevelt, voted
either for Debs or Swallow and thus
sWelled the Socialist and Prohibition
totals.
Stay-at- Home Vote Problem.
There is, accordingly, big campaign
problem this year in the stay home
vote. Little reason is given thus far
for its being large with the Democrats,
fairly well united and led by a candi-
date, who has twice polled the greatest
strength ever given for Democrat
Cleveland had in 1883, 5,538,233; in
1892, 5,556,91S; Bryan, in 1896, $780,
925; in 1900, 6,357, s26; and Parker in
1904, 5,0s0,207. Unprecedented as the
Republican majorities were in the last
presidential election, they are not at all
sufficient comparisons for this year,
when the Republicans are already rails
ing the alarm cry about Indifference
and over confidence The Democrats
who stayed at home or went fishing in
1872 came out in force in 1876. The
Republicans, who did likewise in 1892,
went to the polls in unwonted numbers
in 1896.
Normally there is not difference of
many hundreds of thousands between
the Republican and Democratic votes
in the United States Reports, western
and eastern, say Bryan is as strong a
vote getter as ever, probably stronger.
A very large portion of the Gold Demo
Gratis are with him. Suppose the labor
leaders by their intense and well or
ganized campaign win 100000 or 2oO,-
600 Republican workingmen to his
standard and the army of unemployed
add 100000 more. His total, based on
what he polled in 1900, would be reach
ing the 100000 mark.
On form the Republicans can not eA-
pect to poll much more than that 1um-
Der this year. If voters east of the
Alleghanies persist in thinking that
Taft has walkover and stay at home
Taft IS total might fall below that fig
ure, from which it may be seen he v
the November election might be very
close. And, while there have been two
minority Presidents in the last fifty
years-Hayes and Harrison-the popu
lar majority almost certainly means a
majority of the electoral college.