The San Francisco call., 1908-11-20
THE COFFEE TRADE
Estimates on the Current Crop Year by
New York House

The circular of Henry Nordlinger & Co. saws.
Inc october receipts at Santos reached the
very high figure Of 1912, 600 bags. This figure.
however, includes accumulations in the interior
during the pendency OF the dock laborers' strike
IN september, when railroad traffic was entirely
The receipts up to date offer fair basis
Tor calculating the size OF the crop covering
as they do the usual period Of the heavy crop
The Santos receipts are slightly in excess
OF those of 1902, when 10, 166 600 bags came
forward during the crop year. In making allow
ances TINS year for the influences which were
at work to bring about early marketing lex
cep1onally favorable weather for picking and
uryihg, ana later on the increased export tax
we arrive at the conclusion that the current
santos crop will fall about 100000 bags short
Of that Of 1912
"The Rio receipts were free of any incentive
for rapid marketing, and correspond with those
OF the l904-5 crop, which amounted to 2,542, 900
bags. we may, therefore, reasonably look for
crop this year of about the same size. Our
estimate OF September Is of about 10. $50. 900
bags for Rio and Santos combined is thus
oorne out by the receipts up to date Of course,
claim the outturn will be much smaller and
again others say it will be much larger. Ex-
perlence of the past has shown that the receipts
are safer guide to go by than any estimates
given out by interested parties.
Reports received by us from several Central
American countries are to the effect that these
countries will show a larger production than
last year by about 300. 600 bags. The E. I.
crops are reported to be 100000 bags larger
BRAZILIAN GOVERNMENT HOLDINGS
Thus 1t appears that we have 10 deal this
year with total worlds production of about
lf-oUOOUO bags, which just about equals the
worla consumption. The trade will, therefore,
not be placed in the position of being forced to
go 10 the Sac Paulo government or its agents for
sone Oh Its requirements during the current crop
year. as seemed likely some months ago.
Inc negotiations pending for the placing of
the tl0,OOU, 600 sterling loan making prog
ress. The guarantee of the federal government
which has been insisted upon by some of the
underwriters is expected to be forthcoming
These negotiations, when completed, will clear
cover some of their short sales-sales which were
based on the expectation of a forced and early
marketing or the government holdings of coffee.
The actual position of the article, however, will
not have changed one iota. There will be
coffee enough to go around this year, and prob
ing the government holdings of s,500000 to
5000, 600 bags
Reports with regard to the growing crop in
Brazil diner as usual. The reports received by
us indicate somewhat larger crop In Sac
Paulo than is now being marketed but cables
not progressing fayorably. AS a general rule
no heed should be given at this time of the year
to reports about the growing crop, it being much
too early to calculate the extent of some with
any degree of certainty. We merely give men
tlon of the above forerunner of what might
be expected.
1t is fairly safe to assume that very large
crop affects the bearing power of the trees to
such an extent that it takes four to five years
for them to recover their full vitality, some
progress being noted each succeeding year pro-
y1ded no detrimental climatic conditions inter
likely to be experienced before 1901 or