The Oskaloosa herald., 1908-10-22
IOWA IS SURE FOR
TAFT BY $4,000
SECRET BALLOT LEAVES NO
DOUBT IN SITUATION.
WILL MORE LIKELY GO 10000
The Test Indicates 1850 Per Cent Of
Changes From Roosevelt to
Bryan, and 1o.45 From
Parker to Taft.

IIake0
Indicates that William Howard Taft
Twill carry the state by plurality over
William Jennings Bryan in excess OF
I31 900 votes.
Upon the face of the returns, pre-
Isuming that the voters in November
will cast their ballots in the same
proportion as indicated by the Rec
lord-Herald's count, and that the total
vote will be approximately the same
as in 1904, the Taft plurality is indi-
Icated as in excess of $4,000. The
The more conservative estimate is
made from a suvey of the changes
from Roosevelt to Bryan and from
Parker to Taft, and which the indi-
yidual ballots recorded.
What the Polls Show.
From the entire state of Iowa a
total of 6,S51 straw ballots were re-
turned. An analysis of the returns
indicates these facts:
Total vote cast. ..............6 1851
Vote for Taft NEUTRALITY-SUSPICIOUS. 3, 633
| Vote for Bryan ................2 ,S49
| Vote for Debs ................. 1872
Vote for Chain .............. 145
| Vote for Hisgen ........... AZ
In 1904, the basis of comparison for
the straw vote, the following were the
official figures as between Roosevelt
and Parker in Iowa:
| Roosevelt ........ ......... 307 ,9O7
Parker .l49,l4l
IP0nSnUplt'c nlurali ty 1SS 7h6
In arriving at percentage by which
to base comparisons between the
straw vote and the 1904 official vote
these percentages must be taken:
Official Vote, 1904.
Total vote cast. 1856 03
Percentage of vote for Roose-
welt .. ............... $3.50
Percentage for vote for Parker 1910
Straw vots, 1908.
Total vote cast .............. 6,S51
Percentage of vote for Taft. 53.03
Percentage of vote for Bryan. 41.5S
Surface computation of these figures
would furnish an indicated Taft plur-
ality in the state of 55,6l3, upon the
basis that the RecordH erald's straw
vote is completely indicative of the
prospects for the November election;
that the proportion as between the
two leading candidates will remain
the same throughout the state, and
that the total vote will be about as it
was at the termination of the Roose-
velt-Parker campaign.
The real meaning of the figures
which are presented, however, rests
in the table which shows the changes
which the straw voters indicate will
be made from the Roosevelt column
to the Bryan list and from the Parker
| figures of 1904 to the Taft lineup of
1908. A summary of this view of The
RecordHerald's vote shows
Straw Vote, 1909.
! Total vote cast ...............6 $751;
Voted for Roosevelt, 1904. 1851
Voted for Roosevelt, now for
| Bryan ............... 3o0
Percent of change, Roosevelt
| to Bryan ..... ............ 25.29
Voted for Parker, 1904. ,321
Voted for Parker, now for Tart 1873
Percent of change, Parker 60
1att .......... .........'.. lo'Go
| Upon the hypothesis that the pro-
portion of changes between the two
leading candidates, as compared with
the 1904 vote, is to be demonstrated
at the polls on November 3, the re-
suit will show a Taft plurality in
Iowa of approximately 31,734 votes
The Record Herald's straw vote in
dictates heavy Bryan gains, but not
1nearly sufficiently heavy to overcome
the Tremendous plurality OF 1876
(which Theodore Roosevelt secured
over Judge Parker four years ago.
Mahaska and Poweshiek.
Fremont represents the Sixth con-
gressional district, in which Congress
imam Hamilton, a democrat, defeated
former Congressman Lacey two years
lago. 1t Is in Mahaska county, near
Ioskaloosa, the vote coming from far
liners and business men and giving
Taft an advantage in about the same
proportion as was the vote of four
years ago in Mahaska county, 4,O91
flor Roosevelt to 2,2s7 for Parker.
| Grinnell is in the north end of the
Sixth district, and aside from being
in the midst of some of Iowa's best
farming territory, is the seat of Grin.
lnell college. Students, professors and
farmers took a hand in the Record.
Herald's balloting. Taft received a
heavy plurality over Bryan, by {. vote
of f2l to 261, while Chain gets 29
votes to 8 for Debs and for Hisgen
Mr.. Bryan registers a gain of 80 from
Roosevelt, while Taft has a big lead
among the new voters, due largely &c
the college vote, probably. Grlnnel
is in Poweshiek county, which in 1900
Igaye Roosevelt 3,137 and Parker 1912