Deseret evening news. [volume] (Great Salt Lake City [Utah]) 1867-1920, 1908-07-03
LUMBER PRICES
WILL INCREASE
Geo. w. HotchkisS, Timber tx
pert, Gives His Reasons for
Coming Advance.
GREATER VALUES EVERY DAY.
Present WustcruI Conditions Prevail
ing VIII Bring About Marked
scarcity from This Time.

The following opinion on lumber trade
conditions was written by one of the
Oldest lumber dealers In the United
States, George w. Hotchkiss OF chit
cago, Mr.. Hotchkiss was requested
by prominent members of the trade to
prepare his opinion I'm circular form
for general circulation. This he did,
and the same is being circulated all
over the country. Manager G. t. Mar-
rill of the Morrison Merrill Lumber
company says the opinion is of lust as
much interest to- the lumbermen OF the
west and northwest as to those OF the
south and southeast
II am frequently asked my opinion
of the present and future condition OF
the lumber market and this is my
excuse for a few confidential words
with YOU. while not being a prophet nor
the son Of a prophet (although not n
few Of you Will remember that as long
as six years ago / foretold n panic to
occur in August or September, 1900
and only ask that you viii take what I
now say for what you may consider it
worth.
"Candidly I look upon the present
business as but the prelude to an era
Of prices higher thpn has ever been
known to prevail. The growing scar
city of timber makes what remains of
greater value every day. The white
pine of the north is already practically
extinct, and conditions are not such
as to give promise of a replenishment.
If the growth of the nation permitted
OF such extensive utilization of the
lands suited to the purpose as would
be necessary, new foret would re.
quire $50 to 200 years to reach that
stage of maturity requisite to its dur
ability as a building material Low
values for white pine have become an
lmpossiblity II present holders of what
remains are to realize its present ac-
tual value.
"Hemlock as a substitute Is not in
such abundance as to give promise of
more than an eight or ten year supply
and those who hold 1t are not disposed
to minimize its value.
INEVITABLE ADVANCE
"The forests of the south viii prob
ably not answer the growing demands
to exceed 10 or 20 years. The nouns
tain and coast states under present
wasteful conditions by reason of the
high cost of transportation preventing
the utilization of any but the best Of
their timber. give promise of adequate
supplies for middle states and eastern
consumption for probably not to eX-
coed 30 years. If you were holder of
timber lands under these conditions,
would you give away your timber or
would you expect by holding II TO reap
the benefit of an inevitable advance IN
value2
But we find today that southern
lumber is selling at a price which does
not allow cent for the standing TIM
her. Sixty per cent OF lumber which
costs Sl2 to Sl3 at the mill Is being
sold by parties who are compelled to
realize Cor go into bankruptcy at from
So to IS at the mill, and this fixes the
market price for the larger and more
holders, none of whom are
urging the sale of their product.
RETAILERS TIMID,
From all the information that reach
as me. the retail trade is extremely con-
about purchasing even at the
ow figures, fearing that prices Will go
over and preferring to reduce the high
price stock on hand, and / am led to the
opinion that as a rule stocks i'm the
retail yards are now below normal rath-
~ that above and that soon even with
4 present restricted consumptiVe de-
nand, dealers VIII find IL necessary to
replenish. What then will be the re-
suit when any large number OF dealers
decide that they must have more stock?
VIII there not be a rush In which a
rapid advance In wholesale prices VIII
De inevitable?
"Panics. like wars, have their ending
md In my opinion the wise lumber
ieaier vii be the one who buys (wsely)
when goods are offered him at less than
he cost OF manufacture as he assuredly
AN do today. Nothing short of general
can initiate to cause values
n SO staple an article as lumber to
emain long at or near the actual cost
II production, and especially when that
ost does not include the value of the
tanding timber. when things reach
bed rock II Is useless to think of
heir going any lower
GENERAL CONCLUSION.
MY general conclusion, therefore, Is;
Understanding timber has a legitimate
md advancing value and those able 20 |
lold 1t will not foolishly sacrifice H. |
second. the existing conditions do not |
Illow the manufacture a fair, II any |
'ront at all Third, that the time IS |
rot many months ahead when the nee
all trade win be clamorlng for stock, |
fourth. that when that time comes the |
win have his Inning and |
'rices viii rapidly advance 10 an ault-
nate point beyond the highest hiJhrr-
o known. Fifth, that when the adj
ance begins, dealers VIII climb over
ach others heads 10 stock up, but VIII
'o unable TO keep up with the band
wagon music. sixth, that the wise
ealer viii study the conditions care
ully and not let the torrent OF advance
ns prices catch him at the highest
IOtCh.
when goods cannot he produced 10
Held a profit 10 tho manufacturer at
REVEALING prices, ana when, 49, now,
urge manufacturers are buying desir-
bile cheap stocks 10 hold for rise, II ls
pretty good time for the retailer TO
invest and lumber Is about as safe an
rticlc Ia hold as an investment. AT
resent prices, as a well developed gold
line On my opinon.
you can tako these thoughts for
A.