Evening journal., 1908-07-15
Wednesday, July IS, 1908.
RADICALS AND SOCIALISTS.

A LTHOUGH Mr.. Bryan may be looked
upon as the radical candidate for presi-
dent he will not get all the vote of the element
of discomfort. Hearst has not yet been pacihed
and, judging by the utterances OF the Hearst
newspapers it is not probable that the New York
martyr" will get into the Bryan camp The
Hearst papers have had nothing commendatory
of Bryan in their columns. Hearst has not for
given the refusal of Bryan in 1904 to support
Hearst for the Democratic presidential nomina-
ton in payment of the earnest aid that Hearst
gave Bryan during the two campaigns when
Bryan ran for president.
During the Denver convention it was stated
that Bryan was desirous of healing the breach
between himself and Hearst And we'll might he
be. The Bryan men now profess to have hopes
of carrying New York but if the Hearst crowd
nominates a ticket it will draw thousands of fol-
lowers who might otherwise go for Bryan.
Hearst could deliver Bryan hundreds of votes,
not only in New York, but in Massachusetts, IL
linois and California.
The Hearst strength, however, is not so for
midable as it would have been had Hearst won
in his fight to oust Mcclellan as mayor of New
York. For several years Mr. Hearst's chief po-
litioal capital the belief he had instiued into
the minds of many that he had been defrauded
out Of a rightful election as mayor but the re-
count proved nothing OF the sort. Even though
Hearst has lost somewhat in prestige, the Inde-
pendence League IS still good for several thou
sand votes-the number would be gauged by the
energy Of Mr.. Hearst IS pushing the campaign.
Then, again, BRYAN has no hope of securing the
straightout Socialist vote. During the Parker
campaign nearly half a million Of these votes
were cast for the two Socialist candidates for
president. Most ri this vote -unduuhtedlv went
for Bryan in his two previous campaigns But
since that time the Socialists have thoroughly
organized They have their newspapers and
speakers who will conduct a campaign in all
parts Of the country. There is no reason to be-
iieve that the Socialist vote will be smaller than
It was four years ago, but it will probably be
larger.
One peculiarity of the Socialist movement in
the old countries is that the vote does not de-
crease materially under any conditions. For
years it has shown steady progress. This is ex-
planned by the statements of the Socialists them
selves that they do not want men to support their
party unless they are thoroughly imbued with
the Sociastic idea and know what they are vot-
ing for
It is significant that Socialist speakers and
newspapers are attacking Bryan rather more
hercely than they are assang Taft. The So
cialists and the radicals, when they fight each
other, are very bitter. That has been their his
tory
Therefore, in reckoning on the probable out
come Of the campaign, it is we'll 10 bear in mind
that Mr.. Bryan will not have a large element OF
the discontented whom he had with him during
his former attempts 70 secure the presidency
Betting is not alv>ys safe guide for predict
ing the result of an election. but the brokers of
Wall street are already betting three to one
against the election of Bryan. This is about
where the betting figures stood during the last
campaign in which Bryan was defeated. Evident
" the brokers do not believe there has been re-
versal of public sentiment such as to warrant the
Bryan supporters in hoping for victory.
Former Secretary Of the Treasury John c. Car
isle has dropped almost completely out Of public
notice Tor man who was for many years in
the public eve. Mr.. Carlisle, however, was at the
recent funeral Of Mr.. Cleveland. The, former sec
retary takes but a langud interest in politics
these days Apparently he is not vet reconciled
to Bryan, for when asked whether he would SUD-
port the ticket named at Denver he refused to
make a statement
MR.. SAULSBURY'S TASK.
II n ".