New-York tribune., 1908-12-16
BRITISH POLITICAL PROSPECTS.

Mr. Asouith has adopted the policy Of filling
the cup" OF that we have heard before. in Mr..
GIadstone's later years and at other times. The
foremost issue in politics, the Prime Minister
holds is the conflict be-ween the two houses
of Parliament which has just been particularly
q accentuated by the action of the House Of Lords
in rejecting measure which had been passed
by the House of Commons. Of course, the
Commons might forthwith appeal TO the country
in p new general election and if the country
again returned a strong Liberal majority. that
fact would he accepted a national mandate
for the Liberal policies. and the Lords would
Weld and would accept the bills which they now
reject. But Mr.. AsQuith declines to do that.
He will not dissolve Parliament at the diCta-
tion and caprice of the upper chamber Ina
stead. he will remain in office and go passings
bill after bill which the Lords will reject and
he hopes thus 10 fill the popular cup of wrath
aga inst the Lords TO overfowing. so that at the
next general election there will be another over
whelming Liberal ma jority and also majority
! for mendng or ending the House Of Lords. Mr..
| Asquith IS an astute political leader. and this
| plan of campaign, which he has doubtless adopt
! ed after careful consideration. will be accepted
by his party being not only stra logically wise,
| but such as to serve the welfare of the nation
There are hose who differ from shim how
| ever and who seem TO have some ground for so
/ doing They discern in the political tendencies
| of the day aCcelerating drift away from
| the Liberal party which, if continued for three
| years more will mean defeat for that party at
| the next general election, and they accordingly
| think that it would be wiser to appeal to the
country now, while there Is still reasonable hope
of another Liberal victory. This view seems to
be supported by the record. In the nearly three
! years since the last general election at which
| there were returned 512 Ministeriaists (3T4
/ Liberals, 81 Nationasts and 81 Laborites) and
! 15S Opposition members OBJ Conservatives and
! q Tnionists), there have been 76 by-elections
! pretty evenly divided among the three years
| % in 1906. q in 1907 and 26 IN 1908. OF these
| only 90 have been contested, and Of these only
| - have involved contests between Liberals and
Unionlsts (the latter term comprising also Con
servatives). In 81 of these there was no politi-
( cal change in the result, in there were Union
ist gains and in ! there was a Socialist gain.
There total gain Of 25,7S5 Unionst votes,
and there was a loss Of 35,4SJ Liberal votes
and a Liberal gross majority Of 54451 was
transformed into a UniOnist ma jOrity of 6.S19
Now, those figures unfavorable to the gov
ernment, but they do not prove that it would
be in danger of defeat in general election
now in one three years hence The Minis
terialists have lost and the Opposition has
gained 10 seats out Of 76 AT the same ratio in
a general election for 670 members there would
be a change of IS, reducing the Ministerialists
from 512 in 1906 to 424, and increasing the OPP
position f5S 70 246 and leaving government
majority of 17s
1t will be observed. however that there were
only - contests between Liberals and Unionists,
IN which the former lost and the latter gained
2. or one in five. If that ratio were applied to
the 900 contested seats in n general election,
there would be n change Of III. which would
reduce the purely Liberal 374 of 1906 to 263,
and would increase the Unionist (and COnserya-
tiye) 15S to 269, thus giving the latter ma
tority over the former and making the present
Opposition the plurality party. That is the
estimate on the present basis. If tie election
should be postponed until near the end of the
constitutional term, the outlook would be still
worse for the government. For the Ministerial
losses and Opposition gains have been increas-
Liberals lost 1911 votes and one seat and the
Unionists gained 1.2fl votes and one seat. In
the % in 1907 the Liberals lost S 03O votes and
two seats, and the Unionsts gained 2946 votes
and one seat the Socialists also gaining one
seat. In the 26 in 1908 the Liberals have lost
10 Ss4 votes and seats and the Unonisfs have
gained 81 59S votes and seats If the increase
Of losses and gains should continue for the next
three years to grow yearly as it has in the last
wear there would be lItle left OF the Liberal
PARTY II speaks much for MIR. Asquihs cour
age and resourcefulness that IN the face Of
sucb possibilities he decides to hold bis ground
The next work of prime Importance which the