New-York tribune., 1908-03-09
WASHINGTON'S VIEW.
Political Situation as 1t Looks to
Large Group of Politicians.
frrom The Tribune Bureau.


Washington March s-"Personay would like
to see Senator Knox the Republican nominee be-
lieve he would make ideal President. have not
before expressed this preference because 1 saw no
end TO be served by doing, and nov am not
saving it for publication. because I am convinced
that Taft will be the party nominee. and l am ad-
vising my friends to abandon useless resistance
and TO get together to help Taft beat Bryan
This statement made TO representative OF
The Tribune to-day by OF the most influential
and far seeing members of the Senate man whose
if he would permit il TO be nsed would
carry the greatest weight. AS an anonymous
statement il might not be worth publication were 1t
for the fact that it represents the view which
is steadily gaining ground among the politicians IN
the national capital
The entire political situation is carefully can
vassed almost daily in the private offices of Sen
ators and Representatives these days, and very
gradually they arriving at consensus of opn-
ion. few of course far committed to the
candidacy of some favorite son that they can see
one else and few hostile to the Presi-
dent that the mere knowledge that he favors the
candidacy of Secretary Taft affords them ample
ground for intense opposition
The majority, however, outline the situation as
indicated in this dispatch. and among that ma
jority many men who personally would prefer
the nomination OF some other candidate. Looking
over the field. they say it is now obvious that
Taft will have something over four hundred votes
on the first ballot without counting any of the
Southern states except Maryland, Tennessee and
Kentucky, which the political prophets think they
divide among the candidates.
The defeat of Taft therefore be accom-
pshed. they say, only in one Of two ways-the
combining of all the favorite son delegations with
the doubtful states a single candidate or the
seating of only anti-Taft delegates from the South
ern states. But they ask. is it possible to COM
bne the favorite delegates a single candi-
date? And they answer no, for the reason that the
delegations instructed for favorite will be, to
the inelegant expression OF antf-Taftite,
rotten with Taft sympathizers." For instance, az
they understand the situation. in Illinois there is
Taft sentiment strong that only the most stren-
uous work on the part of Speaker Cannon's sup
porters will for him solid vote the first
ballot Already three of the largest counties in the
state have indorsed Taft, and this without any
work the part OF the Taft organization Sena-
Hopkins, who will be a delegate at-larce,
makes of thA fact that Taft is his sec
ond choice and that while he will be loyal to Can
as long there seems to be any hope he will
for Taft S a $ the delegation breaks. He
will large following into the Taft camp,
the instructions are abandoned
Neither the Pennsylvania delegation. which
is heart and soul In favor of the nomination of
Knox be delivered en- masse to any other candi
1t will stand by Knox until 1t abandons hope
It breaks fully half Of the delegates. il
is asserted. will for Taft many having said as
much at the White House and elsewhere within the
last month.
The New York delegation, If is believed will he
loyal 70 Governor Hughes perhaps longer than
any other ia vortte because it is the his
tory of conventions that delegates stand longest
by a candidate who have some chance of
becoming the favorite of the convention. and there
Is reason believe that many OF the New York
delegates will regard their candidate as standing
a good chance when the break comes
The Indiana delegation, the political observers re-
ferred to say. is permeated with Taft sentiment
much that in Judge Crumpacker's district.
10Th the delegates could not be elected until
it WAS known that TAFT vas their second choice
Wisconsin will prove exception to the rule
of delegations going for the strongest candidate
Senator La Toilette will dominate his delegation,
ana II is his disposition never TO give up a fight,
so that ballot after ballot might be taken without
Wisconsins voting for any but her favorite son
On the other hand, Mr. La Toilette will receive
votes from outside of his OWE state. and If the
time when he releases his colleagues Sen
ator Stephenson and many others will their
voJes for Taft. It Is declared. therefore, by the
political prophets in Washington that there is no
hope of defeating Taft by combining the favortte
son delegations other
What OF the other method, the seating of only
anti-Taft delegates from the Southern States?
That say the political savans. will not DO" 1t
would be impossible they believe. to elect a
iilate selected by such means. Republican poll
ticians say the party would never attempt SO dan
gerous an experiment the nomination of Presl-
Dental candidate by seating Il sufficiently large
number OF contesting delegates. even If there
much be said in favor Of the contestants. In
other words, the choice OF the convention, they
believe. should be the choice OF delegates from
the Northern states where there will be practically
no contests
There not a few reputedy shreVd observers
who say that the time will never in the next
convention when instructed delegations will have
an opportunity TO break 10 Taft II the Secretary
Of War is not nominated IN the first days ballot
ing. they with great positveness, there will
be 4 stampede for Roosevelt the minute the bal
Iot1ng begins on the second day. II is this
pressed opinion which has given rise 10 recent
Washington dispatches to the effect that the Presi
dent is acting with this end in view, that ne at
least Is not disposed 10 discourage #. Of course,
there Is truth in any such statements.
The accompanying table represents the views Of
some of the ablest political forecasters in Wash
iacton. segregating certain Southern States. some
Of which ii is believed will send delegations,
and the doubtful states, which they cannot yet
place with any certainty;