The Washington times., 1908-09-02
Republican National Head
quarters Thinks Vermont
Vote Argues Success.
.4ITCHCOCKS GUESS
is INDICATED
Returns Show Chairman Had Stu
alton Sized Up About Right.
Democratic Gain in Cities.
By 7. c. wELLTyER


NEW YORK, Sept. AT hesdquar-
ters Of both national committees. the
expected happened today when express
sions Of entire satisfaction and graft
fieation" were given out anent the result
of the Vermont election yesterday
Practically complete figures indicate
the election Of Prouty. Republican, for
governor, by 2s 90. On the basis OF
the tradition that the nation goes Re
publican when a Vermont governor is
elected In September by more than
2,o0l, there is no consolation for Dem
ocraJs IN this. However. Chairman
Mack. Of the Democratic national com
mittees said this morning that the
result was satisfactory because the
Democrats put absolutely no money into
the state. while he claimed the Repub-
licans sent good deal Of money. and
employed several national speakers. in
cluding Senator Borah Of Idaho. form
er Secretary Shaw, and the Rev John
Wesley Hill, pastor OF the Metropolitan
Assembly Methodist Church in this CITY.
The Democratic analysis points out that
the returns show 10 per cent loss in
the Republican vote and only , per cent
loss in the Democratic, and by proper.
handling Of the statistics based on this
fgUre, they easily reach a satisfactory
conclusion.
No Plans for Maine
I'VE have not been planning TO make
any special effort on behalf OF the na-
tionaI organization in Maine" said
Chairman Mack. The Maine election
comes September Is and viii be the next
straw in the wind.
However. We get excellent reports
from there. and the local organization
| is making a vigorous fight for when
We expect results that will be even more.
significant of strength than that in Yer
mont We do not claim Ur expect 10
carry The State. but We do expect a
showing Of Increased strength which
viii not be equivocaL"
AS matter Of fact, statIsticians who
/ are not concerned with making q show
/ ing favorable to aTy party. but whs
/ have been trying 10 figure out what the
Vermont result really signides. have
| been able 10 make little headWay- Four
years ago, In the September election
preceding the Roosevelt landslide in No
vember, the Republicans carried the
State by 296l5.
In 1900. the popular Republican plu-
Tal1ty II the nation was only ABOUT 20
per cent as much at the November
election as in 1904. vet in 1900. thet Re
publican majority at the September cleo
+ ton was larger By l68 than in Is0i.
Again. gong back to 1856. when the
Republican national popular majority
was less than in either 1900 OF 1904 It
| rs found that the Republicans carried
Vermont in September By $500 In
other words, Nermonts September Re
pubican majority was larger in 1895
when The Democrats came nearer TO
carrying the union than IN either 1900
/ or 1904.
Not Good Index.
| This analysis of the results OF the
| last three Presidential years doesn't
seem 10 bear out the theory that Yer
mont is a particularly good index Of
national tendencies. on the other hand
/ in 1892, when Cleveland was elected, the
! Republ cans carried Vermont in Sep
| tember by only 1856 and in lSS4. when
/ Cleveland was elected the frst time.
! the Democrats carried the State in Sep
i tember by p, $50, Going back 20 1876.
/ when Tilden was really elected, the
! Republican September majority was
/ %. 662. This analysis seems to bear out
/ the theory that when Vermont falls
| below 5000 in September the Demo
| Gratis are likely . c5TTy the country.
/ But going back 10 1660 and 1865, which
are perhaps as important for purposes
| of illustration today as some of these
/ later figures IL is found that in both
/ those years the Republican majority in
| September vas just about 20.600
II the stay-at-horle Republican vote
/ in Vermont this GEAR means ReDub-
! Iican disameetfOn. is signfntant OF gen
/ eTal conditions. il means something. II.
1 on the other hand, the stay-at-hOme
1 vote merely means lack of interest at
/ this time which can be overcome after
| the campaign progresses, the Vermont
/ figures Indicate that Mr. Taft viii be
/ elected BY figure something like that
/ of Mr.. Mckinley in 1900