Evening star., 1908-01-25
BULLS AND BEARS

Special Dispatch to The Star.
NEW YORK. January 25.-Each day
presents further indications tending to
confirm the belief that the stock market
is gradually becoming more professional
in its character, and leading operators
are of f'the opinion that from now on there
are unmistakable signs Of q turn for the
better in the railroad and industrial situa-
ton. Price movements will be governed
largely by the transient sentiment of the
day-to-day trading element
4
There are some who believe that the
publication OF the United States Steel
earnings next week for the last quarter
of 1907 will serve to stimulate more
pronounced movement.in one direction or
the other. This contention, however, Is
controverted by others, who maintained
TIM. the report referred to is not likely to
reveal anything with which the financial
community is not already familiar. Every
one knows that heavy shrinkage IN
earnings will be revealed, but the state
ment will only reflect conditions which
existed prior to the beginning Of the year.
and these, 1t is cpntended. form no cri
terion of the actual state of trade at the
present tima. nor any standard to go by
In forecasting further developments in
that line.
Railroad and industrial corporation Of
flcialS still take a rather gloomy view OF
the prospects. and most of them declare
that there are as yet no substantial indi-
cations of an Improvement in general con-
ditions,f and, In fact. maintain that no
definite change in the trend of business
s IkeIv TO ha shown for three
months more at least.
4
Today's announcement of the reduction
in the Bank of Germanys minimum dis
count rate from 61a to per cent, taken In
connection with the promise of COM
plete retirement of local clearing house
certificates by the end of next week, close
market observers believe may be made
the basis for moderate rally in securi
ties. following week of almost uniformly
declining prices. Stocks have now reacted
to the extent of about 25 per cent on an
average of their gain since the beginning
of the year. and some improvement tenn
porarily is looked for merely on technical
conditions.
1t is pointed out, however, that in the
absence of any strong incentive for bull
ish operations and the retirement Of the
leading banking interests from active par
ticipation on the bull side. it is scarcely
probable that any great amount Of en-
thusiasm toward the long side of the mar
ket can be stimulated. Investment buy
ing, it is admitted, has somewhat revived
within the last few days by reason of the
price recessions, but the absorption of
stocks by odd-lot purchases is necessarily
slow process, and one which does not
Immediately make itself felt in any no.
ticeable degree.
Then, too, the rapidity with which cor
porations are announcing new security
issues is believed likely to have a ten
dency to discourage a general buying
movement of stocks. Since the begin
ming of the year close to s75.OUO.OOO new
corporation loans have been actually put
out. or announcement made of plans pro-
Nidfng for an early issue of securities. In
all cases these new loans are foated on
an attractive. basis from an investment
point of view. and it is regarded as natu-
raj that good deal of the idle funds
awaiting Investment will be drawn
toward these new issues, rather than
seek employment in stocks
X 4
Very positive predictions are again be-
ing made in some quarters that an extra
dividend will soon be declared On North
ern Pacific. incidentally the calcula-
tions as to how much this will be have
been revised, and it is now claimed that
instead OF 10 per cent extra disburse-
ment, the company will pay an extra
dividend of 20 per cent to be distributed
over several installments. No more posi-
tive knowledge concerning these rumors.
however is available than has been the
cas- her