The Montgomery advertiser., 1908-10-02

summary Of political conditions Tn New York. and forecast of the result of the Presidential and Gubernatorial cleo tions in that State--walter Wellman. correspondent of The Chicago Record- Herald--is a Republican by political faith. but is thorough. searching and scrupulously fair newspaper writer His statement that the State Is in grave doubt. and that Bryan is gaining every day. will be read with interest through out the countrv.)
 New York Speciai--By walter We'll man to Memphis Commercial Appeal With the election onlv iive weeks away, no man can say with confidence what the Empire State is going to do.
 ernorship. % M " Ths me 's best that eao D be said at this writing is that the chances favor Taft carrying the state by a relative
 small plurality and .,snaer the qe1eas msrrIn 1I But there are so many elements or un- certainty that he wou.-. indeed. De
 rash man who at this time ventures any
 positive prediction one way or the otn-
 It is easy for the politicians to make claims. For instance Chairman Con-
 nors of the Democratic state commit
 by by 100000. Chairman woodrutr of the
 Republican Committee says Taft VIII
 win by from 50,oo0 to 10000. The sim pie truth Is that both men are Huess- ing. They do not know.
 The campaign in this State has only just begun. Neither State organization
 has really done any work beyond the en a poil of the voters. Neither has the full and aceurate information upon
 which to base an intelligent estimate: All the political managers can d9 at non pa artisan observers do. and that IS to fudge by indications. by the trend or public sentiment. When it comes 10 this. the average politician Is not h mueh of success. He sees tnfnBs through
 There is a common belief throughout the country that New York Is q4ite pubiicans will be shocked to hear that there Is an3 real doubt about the State. They. of course, realzie that 1T New York should M haRDeb P abs to Eysn sS sryas was shs Presidency. This dispatch Is not in: tended to alarm such Republicans. H Is not intended to be sebpsaaR3nsa ebss RnSan ,s going to carry New York. In fact. ] think his chances are not so good as those of Taft. But having made e%xtene % sive ineuires as to the ,S S'dse dutv ot to point out that tkere Is nothing sure a2ous us the verdict of New York. Doubt a9es exist. The weli-nigh deeisivs thirty. nshe nsa te e'eeeo Se fought For. The odds are against Bryan. but there are eieneRnts R which threaten unpleasant surprises toF those who have settled doWn lnto % ses comfortable belief that the State IS saIs
 The Countrywide belief that New York Is certainly for IaLt sprthsi ths ast St three presidential elections the state has been 5verwhelmingly Rpubliean This is nc tural view and proper 1ne. It is a fact which must De taken inle
 But only in connectian with still more important consideration relative corddtigIns mai Iessoocrats on @ carried New York in 1892 for Grover Cleveland. NO one was surprised that they lost It with Bryan in 1896. when the party was ton The surprise was that Bryan got as, many votes as he did under the con dftiors which then prevailed.
 Nor was it any cause for wonaerment that Bryan failed to carry the state in 1900. when he ran against the popular Mckinley soon after successInt, TOT, sig1 wsr fonduSSfeh With sYl I the handicaps against him. the surprise aEain was as that Bryan boiled as many votes as ne did, indicative of theXiitaiissy this sgate ol '' T would have been a miracle if he had "fn Tn 1904 Judge Parker really had no chance whatever against dn RoUSeyhelb nS,ch better than Bryan had done in 1900. As a mat ter of fact, he did not do so vel: hooses es velt's plurality over ParRer psrsi pnWsipiev.s
 TH In ali three campaigns-1sss. 1909 and 1904--the conditions were oeaa opinion of the present struggle, based upon the result in those years; may De very misleading. The really vitai cuThs vote. If the conditions favor the Re publicans they. of course. can easily hold all or part Of tneir prepGfpoh the of the saTor past tSs they may he able to reduce or to wipe out the Republican plurality of the past,
 It is impossible to study the OItns c0nri- to the conclusion that their net enect IS to help the Democrats. In this dlspatch no effort Is made to measure the erect of the various factors now working TOT R-yan. There Is no pretense of figuring out how deep each influence may cut Tn reducing the Republican majority. IL of these influences are, that as the cam naiRn goes on careful readers ana oD- Servers may the more intelligently judge what the final outcome Is hkely
 Working against Mir. Bryan Is the persistent belief uLon the part Of many voters that in ., some ne tSs TsV qS eo chair; that he is too much given to experimentation: that he Is too radical; that he has not outRrown his devotion to free silver; that If ar emergency or
 financial chnrastsr tbs wSifs Hfe House 5S srlse be could not be depended upon to use all his power for the preservation of con- fidence and of the gold standard.
 Many believe MT. Bryan too much ad- dicted to isms. such as the initiative of railways, etc His past radicalism as to the Supreme Court. and fear that if he were elected he might trv to fill that great tribunal with men of his own stamp affects many voters, So far MT. Bryan is not regarded as a good business man, nor as q good judge of men. In short. the old distrust o@ Bry- an persists but in a greatly modified form. It Is no longer violent or vim
 If we compare the Bryan of 1S96 and 1900 with the Bryan of today. in the opinions of the people of New York. he has gained tremendously. Evidence of this Is found In the well known indif- fo inc outcome of the present election. Those who are Republicans are as a rule against Bryan. hut not savagely. They no longer look upon his possible election as a forerunner of national disaster. They are not spending money to defeat him.
 Many business men who in the Bryan campaigns of the past have worked en- ergetically for the Republican ticket will this year stay at home on election feature Of the situation the certainty that the United States Senate is to be Republican for at least four years to come plays. an important part.