New-York tribune., 1908-07-13
THE WEEK IN WALL STREET.

Friday when recession occurred on profit TAX
ing, the improvement in sentiment. however,
continuing to prevail. The renewal of activity
was due to the initiative of important interests.
the carrying on of whose market operations is
comparatively easy because of the extreme ease
in money; but in the decision that the time was
opportune for giving upward impetus to the
market they were doubtless influenced by GER
tain outside developments chief among them
the increasing proba bilty which toward the
end OF the week became accomplished fact
Of the nomination of Mr.. Bryan for President
by the Democratic National Convention. An
other controlling consideration was the improve
ment in the iron and steel industry, 5 indi-
Gated by ex-Judge Garys interview on his de-
parture for Europe, by the announcement of the
taking on of large numbers of employees by the
United States Steel Corporation at its works in
P1ttsburg and elsewhere, and by the news that
the Steel Corporations business So per cent
Of normal, the largest percentage since the post
panic recovery set in. Even more significant
a basis for an advance in securities the
government crop report, which afforded strong
ground for expecting that the coming fall would
see harvests garnered of fully normal size. and
much larger than normal in the case of corn,
although this is TO be a bumper" year.
The maintenance by the Baltimore & Ohio
Railroad Company of its annual dividend rate
at per cent which required the taking of ST.
100000 from the surplus in order to make up the
amount necessary for the semi-annual dividend
disbursement was an incident of the week
winch tended 10 lessen the bullSh feeling al
though ii found it's apologists whose position
that the directors in making the per cent
declaration showed their confidence that earn
ngs would soon improve and who argued from
that assumption that recourse the surplus
entirely justified But this not the
view of the financial district generally, which
remembered the approval with which dividend
reductions by other great railway systems with
in the last few months had been greeted and
which regarded as the reverse of conservative
the refusal to lower the dividend in the face of
heavily decreased earnings in the fiscal year just
ended, with sign of hetterment yet visible in
the companys revenue returns
With the nomination of the Democratic ma
tional ticket the campaign for the Presidency
is now under way. and in the judgment of that
body of men known collectively as Wall Street
whose opportunities for obtaining information
from which correct conclusions may be drawn
of the best, the selection of Bryan makes
highly probable the success of Taft and the
continuance of the Republican policies. That
conviction. as already said. has been one of the
chief factors in the upward movement of the
securities markets during the week. and also
explains the recession On profit taking when the
Denver conventions choice of the peerless" and
perennial candidate formally registered
There will be periods of worry over the outlook
as the campaign proceeds. as there have been
in bygone campaigns in which Mr.. Bryan has
been the Democratic nominee, and these Bryan
scares will cause market breaks doubt; but
lie Irfn opinion OF the pest Judges in the finan-
cial district is that the chances of success
strongly favor the ticket headed by Mr. Taft
There Will be. too crop scares, and the sea-
son for them is close at hand: but unless un-
usually severe devastation shall be wrought by
the elements by insect pests the harvest re-
turns this year will be so bountiful as power
fully TO assist in the speedy re-esta bishment
of prosperity. The July i indication for winter
wheat which is already beginning to be moved
from the farms shows a falling off of about
24,oG0OOO bushels, as compared with the June
indication. but gain of 1000, 900 bushels over
last years harvest. Spring wheat is we'll above
the June l condition and the ten-year average
for July i, and the current indication points to
a crop 2O.OO0,O00 bushels in excess of that of
1907; while the corn crop if the July indica-
ton shall be approximately realized will be
about 200 000 900 bushels larger than last wears
and next TO the largest record. These are
highly encouraging figures, which mean a ire
mendous addition TO the wealth of the country
and which are supplemented by equally promis-
Ing indications on other grains. the very i'm
portant hay crop, the condition Of which is 10
points above that of a year ago. and cotton.
Not only In the iron and steel industry but
also in the copper industry, which was the first
to feel the poor times. and in general business
are indications CT improving conditions begin
ming to manifest themselves, an Improvement
the broadening of which, however will in large
measure depend upon the realization of the
favorable expectations regarding the crops; and
one OF the signs or the returning activity is the
report Of the American Railway Association OF
{. decrease of SO 600 during the second fortnight
of last month In the number of idle cars. Con-
sumption everywhere has long been restricted,
but clothing in time wears and railroad
equipment and steel rails must finally be re-
placed, and all other articles used directly or
by must after a certain stage of
wear be discarded, however careful has been
their usage. Thus ii comes about that occa-
sionally, in dull times. there is an outburst Of
ts,-5y, .taey
plenishing depleted stocks; and for the suhstitu-
tion for such outbursts of the sustained and
ample consumptive demand and the responding
production which connote prosperity the prime
requisite is the restoration OF confidence. which
seems slowly returning and the return of which
will be greatly hastened by heavy harvests and
by the laying OF the sinister spectre of Bryan
radicalism.
Money continues TO be drug in the market.
as is always the case for many months after
the occurrence of panic. but with the return
of confidence rapid use Will be found for the
enormous accumulation of funds now lying idle
and unfruitful in the banks of the country.
There has been no change for the better in the
last week in the rates for money, which may be
had on call at the nominal figure of TO u per
cent and for which at any periods from thirty
days upward there is virtually no demand The
weekly statement Of the Associated Banks of
this city Saturday showed a shrinkage of
more than s7000,000 in the surplus reserve
which, however, still exceeds s47 900 O00 the
largest surplus at this date since 1898 II is
not surprising that the local government de-
positaries should rule have anticipated the
repayment of their quotas of the s45 900 600
special deposits recently called by the Secretary
of the Treasury and payable by the middle of !
this week. The New York depositaries as ap- |
pears from the bank statement still hold about !
s12 600 OF government money. all of which !
they could return to the Treasury without any
danger of the rates for money being much ad-
vanced especially as owing TO the continuance Of
he condition he Tre