The Guthrie daily leader. [volume] (Guthrie, Okla.) 1893-1996, 1908-09-19

shire, !, New Jersey, II; North Dakota,
| 4; Ohio, 30; Oregon. 4 Pennsylvania
"a; Rhode Island, A. Vermont. 4;
Washington, 3; Wyoming, 3. Total
206
Democratic States.
Alabama, II; Arkansas .; Florida,
;; Georgia, 49, Kentucky. 49,. Louis
lana, .; Mississippi, 10; Missouri, Is;
| Nevada. 3; Oklahoma, Z North Caro-
! lima. -; South Carolina. 9; Tennessee,
~ Texas, Is; Virginia, II. Total,
| 161.
Doubtful States.
| Colorado, 3 Indiana, Is; Maryland.
s: Minnesota, IL: Montana, 3; Nebras-
ka, 8; New York, 80; Utah, 3 South
Dakota, 4 Wisconsin, Is; West viz
ginia, 2 Total 1lG.
The Surprise" States.
But in this campaign there is an
other class of states on which it would
be well to keep an eye. They are
states where there have been violent
fluctuations In state elections, ur
where there are known conditions
which indicate great falling off in
the heavily Democratic and heavily Re
publican vote These states might be
called surprise states" There is not
sufficient reasons at the outset of the
activities of the campaign TO warrant
their being placed in the doubtful
column, and all of them so designated,
for purposes of explanation, are In the
above Republican or Democratic class
iiications. They are as follows,
Surprise States.
California (R). 10; Georgia CD, 13;
Kehtucuky (Dl, 10; Missouri Cd, is,
Nevada ID, 5; North Dakota CRl, 4;
Ohio tR), %: Oregon tRl, =; Rhode
Island (Rl, f. Total, 80.
Laying aside the surprise states
for moment, a recapitulation OF the
states shows this summary:
Wha. Recaptulation Shows.
Total number OF votes in electoral
college 4Ss.
Majority necessary TO choice 242.
Republicans reasonably sure OF 206.
Democrats reasonably sure of l6l.
Republicans to win must gain, SO.
Democrats TO win must gain 81
Now taking up the surprise states
and chasing them in the doubtful
column the summary appears thus:
Total numbuer OF votes in electoral
| cOlieBe, 100,
Majority necessary to choice, 242.
Republicans reasonably sure of l62.
Democrats reasonably sure OF IA.
Republicans mus; get SO
Democrats must get rs.
"Perhapo Not, But"
Perhaps there may be no chance
of the surprise states proving
doubtful Perhaps Bryan will get the
electors in Georgia, Kentucky, Nilsson
ri and Nevada, without trouble Per
/ haps California, North Dakota, Rhode
I Island Ohio and Oregon will remain
in the Republican column to the end.
| But those who neglected to keep an
eye on surprise states in 1904 were
astOunded on election morning to learn
that Missouri had been carried by
I Roosevelt and that Parker had won all
but one elector in Maryland
There might be a surprise in GeOr-
gia, where Thomas r. Watson, the Pop
ulst candidate for president IS very
strong, and whore the Democratic par
Us was so opposed to Bryan that they
refused TO vote for him at the Denver
convention. There might be surprise
in Kentucky, where the Republicans
carried the state in 1907 and where
there is strong opposition TO Mr.
Bryan manifested in 1896, when all Of
! It's electoral vote, save one, went 10
Mckinley Missouri might give tho
! Democrats shock, because OF the ia
tense popularity OF Attorney General
( Hadley, the Republican gubcrnaiorial
: candidate and the bitter faciional
strife among the Democrats.
As to the Republican territory
/ classed In the surprise column, Ohio
may well be considered Attention
should be paid 10 Rhode Island. North
I Dakota and Oregon, all of which have
elected Democratic governors, while
beiug classed as normally Republican.