Daily Arizona silver belt., 1908-05-27

further than last October cannot regard the future of the United States with thoughts other than those of tho op- timist, says Dun's Review. With a certain degree of periodicity the Amer ican people have gone into financial OK cesscs; yet it is comforting to note that from each setback the nation has ral- lied promptly and risen to greater heights than ever before. But your chairman has assigned to me the specific task of giving Forecast for 1908, v which is somewhat too fine line to draw. MT. Carnegie says, Prophecy all you like but don't give dates,' and I should like the same latitude in this forecast.
 The last depression before the one through which we are passing evtend' ed over period of about four years, and during that time the prices of com modities fell to the lowest point on rec ord. while the army of unemployed was at one time estimated at three millions. Although the population of the country has risen above S7,000,000, against 65,- 0O0,0 900 in 1898, this year the largest number of unemployed was placed at about 100000, whereas a ratio in pro. portion to population fifteen years ago would make this year s number of idle wage earners 4,000,000, were the disas- ter as widespread as in 1893 to 1897. Hence. as I said in presenting this sub icct to tho Perfumers' convention, 1t is fair to start with the assumption that the panic of 1907 was less severe and far-reaching than its predecessor, al though in some respects it kept up the American tradition of always supplying superlatives. For instance, tho date with which the last collapse will always be associated was October 23. when the Knickerbocker Trust company suspend ed. and it was a much larger institu- ton than any similar financial concern that closed during the previous disas- tcrs. while the amount of clearing house certificates issued and the length of their lives also surpassed all preceding high water marks. So, also the number of commercial failures that followed, and the amount of defaulted liabilities far exceeded similar figures in the months immediately succeeding similar disasters in 1857, 1873 or 1893. But there is reason for this in the much larger number of firms now in busi- ness and the greater amount of capital involved. It IS an era of big things, and when the machinery goes wrong the mortality is expected to be com mensurately increased. But that is not the fact. Thus, in the first quarter of 1908, the amount of liabilities to each firm in business was only $53.3S, against $l0l.s7 in the first three months after the panic of 1893, and the defaulted in- debtedness to each 1000 of solvent payments through the clearing houses was only s2.52, against sS.22 in the earlier year. This is a decidedly lower death rate for the latest disaster. These comparisons suggest that either the re- action through winch We are passing is less violent than preceding depressions, or the nation was in better position to stand the strain.
 Tn considering the future, it is well to look as carefully as possible into the past Physicians predict the dura tion of eonvaloseence upon the violence and exhaustion of the malady, past ex- perience providing a guide of incalcula- ble value. As the patient has suffered, so must the ratio of recovery be meas ured, and it is less of a proposition to rally from a case of measeles than from serious operation. This brings us to the vital question of the fundamental extent of the recent unpleasantness.
 At the bottom of every disease to which the body polite is heir, there exists a specific cause, and in no case do we find anything chronically wrong with this sturdy young nation that IS rapidly passing it's older brothers in the race for commercial supremacy. Briefly summarized, it is unusually simple case of excess. Unfortunately the word "thrift" is a superfuity in the vocabulary of an American. With the marvellous resources and almost un- bounded possibilities that attract out siders to the extent of over million annually, there is no reason for a se- d gree of conservatism governed the lives of our people, but the very ease of de- velopment encourages excesses. Were it possible to combine the thrift of an older nation like France with the oppor- tunities of the United States, wealth would be accumulated at rate that would establish the world. On the contrary, however, the text is always, Build bigger barns,' and everything is extended beyond the limit of safety. The strain reaches the utmost bearing power of the solid beams sooner or later, and collapse follows that is more or less severe. The resumption of progress depends upon the extent to which the structure has been weaken ed and the revival of confidence, which is the psychological factor. The buying power can only be restored by "sav- ing" and Americans do not care for that word.
 Our idea of "practical economy" is as hay as the Jersey statesman s def milton of "political economy" which he said was the |'art of not buying more votes than you need" We go on steadily advancing our standard of liv ing until it will soon be impossible to tell the. story of the farmer who was asked by some city people seeking q boarding place for the summer whether he had bath tub in the house. "No, :" said he, eff you really need a bath you d better take it afore you come.
 If our grandfathers were content to walk, our fathers wanted horses, and we believe motor cars are the only