New-York tribune., 1908-10-19
HONEY AND RrSINESS.


This week is the first anniversary Of the worst
reverse in come respects that this country mas
experienced It's rapid growth since the earlier
setbacks made the shock so much the greater
the capital invested in trade and industry having
risen TO point where liabilities OF failures we're
unprecedented and the number Of persons In
voIved was larger in proportion to the develop
ment of population. Yet single year has
brought marvellous recovery. some measures OF
prosperity being almost equal to the hgures at
tatned before the disaster and II Is prooapIe
that scarcely any perceptible difference would
be found were this not the year Of PRESIDENTIAL
election This factor has retarded recuperation
somewhat and in many comparisons it can be
seen that otherwise there would be no loss from
the volume Of business in 1907.
In spite Of unusual duness in the security
market last week prices exhibited remarkable
strength The average OF the sixty most ac-
tive railway shares rose to the highest point Of
the year and there was some logic In this ad-
vance because earnings were much the best
since the reaction a year ago, but the preceding
level less readily explained except on the
usual theory that Wall Street is always far
ahead Of the rest of the country discounting
both favorable and adverse events There Is
more than ordinary significance IN railway
earnings thus far available for October The
decrease
than at any previous time in 1907. and there
appears gain Of about per cent over the re-
turns two years ago. when ali records up to
that time were being surpassed This is ample
reason for strength in the stock market, unless
the preceding rise was largely artificial and on
this point there is unlimited latitude for differ
ence of opinion. Abnormal ease in the money
market has undoubtedly facilitated speculative
operations but only among the big people as
small traders and investors conhne their atten-
ton almost wholly to high grade bonds.
Money rates are beginning TO stiffen trife,
call loans rising to per cent at times and on
term accommodation over the end OF the year
31h per cent is the usual quotation. Commercial
paper commands Al per cent except on espe-
cially high grade bills. and the whole local
financial situation begins to take on a moro
seasonabe appearance. In part, shipment OF
currency to the interior is factor, reducing
cash holdings of local banks. but loans have
expanded heavily in connection with the ahsorp-
ton of foreign sales of securities Sterling ex-
change rates have moved erratically, and IL is
still thought that the bills that the
market do not begin 10 represent the value of
grain and cotton sent abroad. This belief that
exchange is being accumulated had tendency
to make traders cautious, and the slight harden
ing Of rates in the local money market did not
finances show daily advances in gross gold
stocks to. new high water marks, but the avail
able cash balance is falling behind, receipts
do not equal expenditures. There Is still vast
surplus, however, the national banks alone
holding about S13OOOO.60O of government
money and as general trade improves IT is GER
tain that customs and internal revenue receipts
will expand
Best reports OF manufacturing activities come
from the textile industries, lethargy in the pri-
mary markets for cot:ons having been over
come at last. This is partly due TO the feeling
that there IS little prospect OF further cheaper
ing in price OF the material which has
caused preparation for more extensive spinning,
while there is positive evidence that stocks Of
goods are becoming depleted in the hands of
dealers. and buyers make increased efforts to
place contracts for deliveries running well into
the future Producers are able to secure or
ders without making concessions that wholly
eliminate profits, as has been the case for some
months. and there is less idle machinery at the
present time than at any previous date this
year. Wool is taken more freely by manufact-
urers. and while most interest is shown in fancy
worsteds and resist dye fabrics, there is a grad
ual tendency to supplement earl! purchases of
staple woollens. Footwear production at the
East has suffered because of the strike that
are taking inventories, but shipments are still
fairly we'll maintained and statesmen send in
more contracts for fall and winter shoes With
only two weeks intervening before the election
uncertainty is removed, it is not surprising 10
find structural and railway projects involving
millions OF dollars worth OF steel held back
but these contracts cannot be deferred much
longer
Although oficial figures OF cotton exports in
September showed increase Of 100000 bales
over those Of 1907, and shipments this month
have been slightly larger on old contracts the
Lancashire labor trouble has heavily reduced
new orders from England. Domestic consurnp-
ton is expanding slowly, however, and there Is
can crop TO about 100000 bales Port re-
cepts are abnormal If the yield is not 10 sur
pass all records but that Is attributed TO early
marketing, despite a decline in prices to about
S1h or cents. Wheat has monopolized atteu-
ton in the grain markets. fluctuating erratically
without much net change for the week Re
cepts have fallen off, but are still larger than
a year ago while exports smaller than in
1907. in the face Of lower prices than prevailed
at that time. when violent boom was in prog
ress There ia much complaint OF drouth in the
Southwest, which may reduce the next crop Of
winter wheat
Out in Denver Mr.. Bryan, cropping in the dark