The Washington times., 1908-10-28
Two Great Political Slumps
Appear TO Be in
Progress.
REPUBLICANS SAY
MANHATTAN is SAFE
Poll Just Completed Shows Great
Drift Toward G. o. P,
They Claim.

NEW YORK, Oct 2S.-Is it politically
possible that two revolutions are go
ing On in the country. working in alb
solutely opposite directions?
Is the great middle West slumpins
OF toward Democracy with "A move
ment which makes half a dozen Ordi-
narily sure Republican States graVely
doubtful. while in New York an equally
striking movement, from the Demo-
Gratis to the Republicans is going OnP
This Is the inquiry on eveIybOdy's lips
today The Republican poll Of New
York State shows that Taft will carry
the State above the Harlem by over
200.0 More remarkable and unbelieV-
able even than this, il actually shows
that Taft VIII carry the greater city.
/ am able to give statements on ths
highest Republican authority. They
explain the confidence which RepUb-
Iican leadership has manifested IN the
last fortnight. That New York city is
actually close and may be carried for
Taft is so utterly contrary 10 all
analysis and estimates, in advance OF
the poll, that the men who handled the
poll could hardly believe the evidence
Of mathematics and their mental pro-
cesses. But there is no doubt Of whas
the poll shows. The only avoidance OF
the conclusion is in assuming that ths
poll is utterly worthless.
How Poll Was Made.
The poll was made in this way. In
every election precinct in the State the
people IN charge were told 10 get reIia-
BILE expressions from thirty-dvs repre-
sentative voters. showing how each one
voted four years ago, and how he will
vote now.
These instructions. were obeyed with
great care, il is declared The result
analyzed and its conclusions being pro-
iected over the entire electorate of the
state, showed:
That the changes from Parker TO Taft
are more than double the changes from
Roosevelt TO Bryan. That is, Taft Will
gain more than twice as many fro n ths
Democrats as Bryan will gain from the
Republicans.
That the upstate will 80 considerably
over 10000 for Taft
That the same drift and in much the
same ratio. is found in the city as up
State.
That the city is close, and that the
Republicans are entitled to claim It
with as much confidence as the Demo
Gratis.
Tlsat the Tammany districts in the
city are showing the most immense
That apparently Tammany is organ
lied 10 dump Bryan and make all its
fight for Chanler
That despite the extreme efforts OF
Tammanv 10 sacrifice everything for
ChanleT. Hughes viii win for gOvernOr
by a comfortable margin.
Result Discounted.
1t must be said in candor that nobody
can be found who believes that poll
showing all these things can possibly
be right. But there is the poll ana
these arr it's lessons.
In talking about fl, the authorizes
at Republican headquarters have dlS-
counted these conclusions a good deal,
seemingly for fear the poll would bs
regarded as ridiculous, and laughed out
of all consideration. But the facts
are as stated,
Now. while this careful study Of New
York shows a drift toward Taft which
nobody dreamed existed. while il shows
something like 100000 majority for him
in the State at a time when Republic
cans would have thanked their stars
for assurance Of any old majority at
all; while this remarkable condition IS
shown in the Empire State, everybody
admits that the middle West is drift
ing toward Bryan in about the same
pr0portion that New York seems TO De
tTeCdmg TO TAFT
What is the explanation Ii is pcs
sible that the same causes operating IN
the East will produce absolutely oppo-
site. effects from what they produce in
tho West
Ohio is In doubt; grave doubt. The
Republicans affect confidence, but II ls
manifest amcCtatiOu. They don't feel
II The Democrats claim it strongly
and impartial observers who have
toured the State and studied it, are
almost "a unit in declaring Bryan has
the better Of IT, Indiana is much the
same. but rather better for the Repub-r
MCsHs- who have dumped a bunch Of
money in-o the State in the last few
days, as they are doing also with Ohio.
New England Situation
This rerc;-tion OF the New York poll
Is the most remarkable paradox OF this
campaign Of contradictions. Yet the pos
sibility that the same issues may be
making for Republican strength in the
East and for Democratic strength IN
the West, finds support in reports from
the four Northern New England States.
Massachusetts is more lH,e New York
city than any other State IN the Union,
and Massachusetts leaders assure re
publican Headquarters that there is sim
ply nothing 20 1t; Bryan will lose more
votes 10 TAFT, compared with the 1903
result than Taft will lose 10 Bryan.
Ihree days ago d man from Maine
who has never been regarded as a po-
litical chump, come 10 Republican head
quarters and insisted that the commit
tee must do something for Name, and
do It right away"
give il up So does everybody except
the people whose business IS TO claim
everything. Both national committees
are doing that and Taft and Bryan are
both as confident Of success as ever
candidates were.
Senator's Fears.
A wise old Republican United States
Senator who has campaigned ever since
the civil war, said to me: 81 have been