The Pacific commercial advertiser. [volume] (Honolulu, Hawaiian Islands) 1885-1921, 1908-08-21


six States named, which means thai
his election would be impossible.
There are grounds for specializing
how he might carry Indiana, but the
Democrats are admitting now that the
| prospects are not as rosy as three OF
Iour short weeks ago. The conditions
in Ohio are still very ugly, from the
Republican standpoint, but improving
| Chairman Hitchcock is making 2oOo
| progress in organizing the campaign in
| the West. AS this organization pro
| crosses, many of the local troubles will
disappear.
Tie ''scare talk has been coming
| chiefly from the East The discussion
about the denomination of Governor
Hughes has promoted it. Only a short
time ago the New York politicians be-
gan to say, according to their point of
view, that Hughes must or must not be
renominated if Taft is to carry the En-
pire State. The President and the NOM
inee for President have been represent
ed in many dispatches as regarding the
gubernatorial nomination of some inn
portance in its bearing upon the cleo
toral vote of New York
New Jersey, with twelve electoral
votes, receives less notice politically
throughout the. country, but the Repub-
lican politicians there have been in
dulging in about the same line of talk
as prevails in New York. 1t is of no
particular significance about an election
three months away, but contributes
something to a less hopeful attitude,
which often, in politics, follows feel
ing of great assurance. Over in Mary
land Governor Crothers and United
States Senator Rayner, both anti-Bryan
Democrats, have recently been active in
rebuking the anti-Bryan sentiment,
which is rampant in Baltimore and
which will almost certainly carry that
State for Taft in November. But their
announcements of fealty to the ticket
and of determination to advocate
Bryan's election from the stump have
been little discouraging to the Re-
publican workers, who see that they
can not carry the State without some
organized effort. Similarly in West Vir-
ginia, the Republicans are having their
blue days. The party has nominated
two candidates for Governor. A merry
war, such as the West Virginia noun
taineers relish, is vigorously on, but in
all probability the two Senators will
pull one of the rival candidates down
before a month goes by and the DEM
ocratic dream of West Virginia will
vanish.
The big task to which the Republi-
can managers in many States are adj
dressing themselves is the assuasion of
the labor voters and the negro voters.
OF course, they are yelling from the
housetops that Gompers can not de-
liver the labor vote, and that the negro
vote can not be for anyone else than
the Republican nominee. There is an
element of truth in both assertions.
But it is known here beyond question
that the Republicans are concerned
about both these classes of voters.
Their concern is due In part to con-
viction that they will not have all of
those votes they have had in past
presidential elections and, III part, to
inability to determine whether the de-
fections will be very large. They Will
know much more about it in Septem-
Der and after the poll-takers have can
vassed several States.
The period since the national con-
ventions has been bullying with brag
talk on both sides. Now the managers
and workers, of both parties, see that
the time is approaching when they must
find out what is what and govern them
selves accordingly. A little scare Is
good to arouse the militant spirit among
the Republicans About the time the
machinery has been oiled up, there VIII
be another wave of assurance and OF
enthusiasm, just as there has been at
similar periods every four years IN the
last three presidential campaigns. In
the meantime one well-informed man S
opinion about the size of the maJorltles
is inst AS good as another s, for expert
ence has shown time and again that the
best politicians have only limited
knowledge of how few hundred thou
sand voters, to say nothing of a few
million voters, are going to mark their
ballots on given day.
With labor issues promising to be
dominant in the presidential campaign,
the managing politicians of both par
ties have lately been figuring closely on
the size of the labor vote. Chairman
Hitchcock and Chairman Mack have in
their desks some very careful tabula'
tions and analyses. At least some ex.
ceedingly thorough tabulations have
been made by officials of the two ma
tional committees, although, at best'
the n~11res have to be based on estl-
mates.
According to these figures, whether
one takes the statement of the Amerl-
ca q Federation headquarters in this city
or the statements of Republicans, the
organized laborers are only small
fraction of the entire army OF wage
earners. The close Republican fgures
show that about 100000 voters belong
to the Federation. The Republicans ex.
peet that all the parties viii cast about
$4,000. 900 votes at the November elec-
ton They say the membership OF the
Federation is about 100000, but that
it includes a large percentage of non
voters, including women and minors.
The Federation officials said today
that the organized labor vote would be
about 100000 in this campaign: Inc
official report gives the membership De.
cember /. 1907, eight months ago, at
! 723 424 In addition thereto organ