Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1908-10-17
TAFT CERTAIN TO WIN
He'll Have Not Less Than 298
Electoral Votes.
THAT'S SUCCESS'FORECAST
Only Four States Placed in the
Doubtful Column.
LIFE SUBSCRIBERS" VOTE
Bryan's Hope Is in the Middle West
and That's No Hope at All.
How Poll Was Made.

received from the L., 600 members of the
magazines auxiliary editorial board of
life subscribers, with particular reference
to probable results in the doubtful states.
Maryland. Nebraska Montana and Col
orado are the states in the doubtful col
umn in this forecast, with the chances
in Montana favoring Taft and in Colo
RADIO Bryan.
Here are some extracts from the eX-
planatory matter accompanying the ia
bles:
The accompanying table of probable
election results will appear to some. per-
haps, as prejudiced and unfair and. in
truth, the forecast is So one-sided that
the temptation has been great to place
larger number of states in the demo-
cratic or doubtful columns for the sake
of appearances. We have resisted TINS
temptation. however, partly from a conscl-
entious desire to give our readers the aD-
solute truth as we found it, and partly to
ascertain for ourselves and our readers
how accurate knowledge can really be
formed of local conditions and public
opinion by such vote OF our ed1torlal
board. The election results themselves
will conclusively prove or d1SprOve the
accuracy of our forecast. SO that all who
run may read always provided that TOO
many or too serious 'bombshells' are not
exploded by either party in the last month
of the campaign.
Landslide Not Probable.
There is absolutely no evidence of the
Bryan landslide predicted by some.
THE New England states will be re-
publican, as hitherto. Connecticut is some
times spoken of as doubtful, but there
are no evidences of this in our can
vass.
I'm Pennsylvania and New Jersey the
drift appears to De strongly toward Taft.
and these states are. of course. normally
republican in presidential years by very
large ma joritieS.
I'VE have placed Maryland in the doubt
full column because of its remarkably
close vote in 1904. and because 90 per
cent of our republican subscribers think
it will go for Bryan. while 3.' per cent
of our democratic subscribers think it will
go for Taft. The probabilities, therefore,
favor the republicans.
New York Not Doubtful.
no indications that New York is even a
doubtful state this year. With republic
can majority Of $4,000 in 1900 and OF
10000 in 1901. it is evident that there
must be an enormous change of senti-
We believe that New York state will be
republican.
THE south, including Oklahoma. will be
Solidly democratic, the only indication OF
any drift toward republicanism being In
Georgia, where it is curiously pronounced
but apparently inadequate to overcome
the normal democratic majority of So
900 to 10000.
majority of 21,OOO in 1900 and Roose-
welt a majority of $1,000 in 1904, will
probably be again republican. though
there is a slight drift toward Bryan of
republican votes. with no corresponding
drift toward Taft. The independent vote.
however. is quite strongly In favor of
Taft, and 40 per cent of our democratic
subscribers concede that Taft will carry
this state, while practically all our re-
publican subscribers claim it for Taft.
Delaware will be numerically close as
usual. but there. are no indications that
the 20 per cent republican majorities
of 1890 and 1904 will be wiped out.
THE normal democratic majOrities of
Virginia are too large to be disturbed
by the very slight drift toward Taft dis
closed by our vote.
Bryan's Hope in West.
1.-The middle west is believed to be MIR.
Bryan's hope. and with some reason. If
the republican majorites of Ohio were not
so enormous $4,000 in 1900 and 80 900 in
1900 there might be grave cause for I'M
easiness among the republican managers.
for the independent and prohibition vote
is largely for Bryan. We cannot fail
to put Ohio firmly in the republican col
umn.
I'm Illinois Bryan has slight advan-
taGe in change OF sentiment, but by no
means enough to overcome the large nor
NAL republican majority. In Wisconsin the
Bryan drift is even more marked, but still
Is apparently inadequate, for the republi
can matorities were 10000 in 1900 and
10000 in 1904. and over so per cent of
our democratic subscribers concede the
state to Taft. In Michigan the senti-
ment is quite strongly toward Taft.
We expected to find Indiana d decid-
eddy doubtful state, owing partly to the
local strength OF Mr.. Kern. the democratic
candidate for Vice President, and partly
to the liking of the state for Bryan. To
our surprise. the vote. In addition to
showing an overwhelming preponderance
of actual republican voters, showed a re-
publican drift to Bryan of only per
cent. while there was a democratic DRIFT
to Taft Of per cent. Altogether -e can
not regard Indiana as a doubtful state,
its republican majority of 1904 was no
less than $4,000. while 1t was $1,000 in
1900.
Curious in Kentucky.
Kentucky. curiously enough, We are
almost forced to regard as doubtful be-
cause Of the small democratic majorities
lin 1900. 5000 and in 1904, 10000, and of
the fact that our vote in addition to dis
closing nearly equal balancing of par
ties discloses also 10 per cent drift
of democratic votes to Taft as against
but - per cent the other way while A
substantial majority of Independent votes
are for Taft. Kentucky will hardly fail
to go democratic. but these figures are
certainly interesting.
We place Kansas. Iowa, Minnesota
and North and South Dakota in the re-
publican column. Kansas would how
ever, be decidedly doubtful were il not
for the enormous republican plurality OF
1904 Q26.c1 out of 32i. 0CO votes cast). for
there is "a decided preponderance of drift
toward Bryan. In Minnesota and Iowa,
though but slightly. and in North and
South Dakota the Bryan drift. though
evident. Is too slight to overcome the nor
NAL republican majorities.
Nebraska is doubtful. There Is re-
publican drift to Bryan of IL per cent
and a democratic to Taft of but per
cent, while 81 per cent OF the independent
vote is for Bryan. The Roosevelt major
ity in 1904 was 81 600. but the Mckinley
majority over Bryan in 1860 was only
5000. and altogether we feel that MIR.
BRYAN has this year a fair chance of Sc
curing the electoral vote OF his own state
Our vote discloses Missouri as doubt
full state. 1t is normally democratic. but
gave a republican majority in 1901 OF 3D.
600.
Far West Is Republican,
..I, .b. far NEST California I-tah nra