The Birmingham age-herald., 1908-11-01
NICHOLAS WALL STREET LETTER Stock Market Awaits Verdict
 of Voters
  FEELS SURE OF MIR. TAFT Information on Which Actual Figures May Be Based Is Woefully Lack ing on Both Sides of the
 Political Fight.
BY W. G. NICHOLAS.


 over the election than might be expected.
 A spirit of confidence in the election of
 MT Taft has pervaded and filled the sit
 uation for weeks. This sense of cer- tainly has grown stronger with the ap-
 proach of the balloting and while there has been disposition to mark time, the average of prices has steadily climbed. The general advance has not been tumult- ! uous during the last week or two, but the | undertone has been almost unbrokenly | strong. There have been occasional reac- i tions, but for the most part they were mere incidents of stock market routine, and possessed no important significance. The lengthening of the betting odds in l sporting circles reflected the feeling of 1 Wall street For once the stock market 1 led the gambling men in its forecast of the election results. Wall street gam bled on the general proposition that the country would be against a political change of control, whereas the gambling men waited for specific and detailed in- l formation from the several headquarters. l This information was not supplied for the simple and all sufficient rerl,.a that the men in charge had no facts of value to l inpart. It is more than an open secret 1 that both parties shockingly deficient l in the kind of Information which old time l campaigners are accustomed to gathering ] in and having on tap before the election.
 There has been no close organization 1 on either side and even the best informed among the Insiders at the several head quarters confess with varying degrees of l shamefacedness that they lack data upon which to form accurate judgment of what the voters intend to do. There has been throughout the entire campaign unusually large percentage of voters who ] 4-T t~&kA tions the campaigners were unable to ob- tain a line.s About the best they could hand out to their close friends was that they didn't know On this point the l wise ones were substantially unanimous They didn't know and they couldn't find out. With them it was quite much guess work as with the rank and file of outsiders. It remained for the high browed thinkers, who do not pretend to know much about the mechanism of poli- tics to size up the general broad politi- cal situaton-at least to their own satls- faction.
 The results may show that they were entirely wrong in their conclusions, but the course of the stock market shows that they had been entirely willing to hazard their fortunes on the accuracy of their forecasts. They did not await in formation from, headquarters like the small fry gamblers who hang around awaiting tips as to who Is going to be elected, why and by what majorties. In- cidentally also practically the entire bus mess world seems to have coincided with and indorsed the judgment of the men of large affairs. Again these rank outsiders with their speculative forel1nowledge of what is going to happen may be wrong, but it Is only of the stock market and the general business end of the proposi- ton that this letter is dealing. The writer long ago withdrew from the field of prophecy. The best he can do is to chron- icle the varying phases of a continually shifting Wall street prospect. The his torian as a rule. outlasts the prophet and in standing averages higher.
 The quarterly report of the United States Steel Corporation was the impor tant piece of real news of the week. It was better than the street had been led to expect The biggest forecasts of earn ings did not exceed S25, ,000, 900 net, whereas the totals were given out above s27, ,0000o0. It is almost needless to say that the management made the very best show ing it was possible for close cheese -paring of expenses in every direction would al low this fortified and supplemented by clever work in the bookkeeping depart ment Fortunately the big steel corpora ton has an enormous surplus and reserve and is not under the necessity Of appro- priating regular or continuously large sums to the various accounts, such as ex- traordinary disbursements, depreciation, etc Ample latitude is given for needful manipulation of accounts without any body being injured thereby and without any wrong being done to either the public or stockholders. The system Of book keeping in force in the offices of the United States Steel Corporation is strictly down to date and provides for almost every emergency and eXigency which is likely to arise in business or politics.
 Up to within a few days before the meeting of last Tuesday, the controlling element in she board of directors was for the declaration of dividend on common stock at the rate of per cent, an increase of 1 per cent. Then there arose opposi- tion to this move on the part of Standard Oil representatives on the board It was urged that such a move would be mis- construed and would do more harm than good-that it would be inexpedient for many reasons. and that it would be the course of wisdom to defer the act of div idend raising until after the election. MT. Perkins and his associates who were for the raising of the dividend rate had no stomach for fight over the proposition and yielded the point. The situation was well understood on the stock exchange and the market price hardly budged. The change in the advertised programme crey ated not the slightest excitement.
 The insiders are the greatest bulls on steel stocks They tell their friends that common will go to par in the next IS months. They claim that within that period the plants at Gary and Duluth will be under full headway with an fn- creased capacity of 100000 tons a year, which will raise the total production of the great combine to about 15,000,000 tons year The reports of the corporation for last year showed net profit of about $15 per ton on $11, 100000 tons production. If the same rate holds good on 15,0O0, 900 tons output, it requires only the stub of a pencil to figure out net earnings of $225, coo 900 two years hence. The partisans of the Steel corporation say it will make very little difference if the tariff is re- duced or not so long reasonable pro- lection is accorded the iron and steel in dustry They say that the strength of the corporation is in it's trade position and it's superb organization. They can undersell the world by reason of the fact of the low cost of raw materials.
 It's ownership of vast iron, ore and coal deposits and of transportation facilities reduces the net cost of pig iron to the Steel Corporation to lower prices than are possible with any competitors with the possible exception of some of the in- dependents in the vicinity of Birming- ham. Ala.
 Wall street is hardening itself against