The Birmingham age-herald., 1908-10-02

- - he had won that year. In 1904 Judge Par ker really had no chance whatever against | Roosevelt and no one expected him to do much better than Bryan had done In l 1900. As matter of fact he did not do so well. Roosevelt's plurality over Parker | was more than 30,000 greater than Me
 <inley's over Bryan.
 l In ali three campagns-lS96 1900, 1904 1 the conditions were dead against the dem | ocrats. Therefore, any opinion of the present struggle based upon the result in | those years may be very misleading. The l really vital question is as to the condi- l tions affecting the vote. If the conditions ! favor the republicans, they, of course. can l easily hold all or a part of their prepon- 1 derance of the past campaigns. If the 1 conditions favor the democrats, they may 1 be able to reduce or to wipe out the re- | publican pluralities of the past.
 | 1t is impossible to study the conditions now existing here without coming to the | conclusion that their net effect is to help | the democrats. In this dispatch no effort | is made to measure the effect of the va ! rious factors now working for Bryan. ! There is no pretense of figuring out how deep each influence may cut in reducing 1 the republican majority. It is only de- sired to point out what some of these influences are. that as the campaign goes on careful readers and observers may the | more intelligently judge what the final outcome is likely to be-
 Working against MT. Bryan is the per sistent belief upon the part of many l voters that in some way he is not safe man to sit in the presidential chair; that ! he is too much given to experimentation that he is too radical: that he has not outgrown his devotion to free silver; that 1 if an emergency of financial character were to arise while he was in the White l House he could not be depended upon to | use all of his power for the preservation | of confidence and of the gold standard.
 Many believe MT. Bryan too much ad | dicted to sms. such as the initiative and 1 referendum. government ownership of
 railways, etc His past radicalism as to 1 the supreme court and a fear that if he
 were elected he might try to fill that l great tribunal with men of his own stamp,
 affects many voters. So far as purely administrative work goes, MT. Bryan is not regarded as a good business man nor as a good judge of men. In short.
 the old distrust of Bryan persists but 1 in a greatly modified form It is no
 
 If we compare the Bryan of 1896 and 1900 with the Bryan of today, in the opinion of the people of New York, he has gained tremendously. Evidence of this is found in the well-known indif- ference of banking and commercial men to the outcome of the present election. Those who are republicans are as a rule aganist Bryan, but not savagely. They l no longer loOlS 1InOn his nOssih1e election as a forerunner of national disaster. They
 are not spending money to defeat him. Many business men who in the Bryan l campaigns of the past have worked ener.
 getcally for the republican ticket will i this year stay at home on election day or
 vote for Bryan himself. In this feature 1 of the situation the certainty that the
 United States Senate is to be republican | for at least four years to come plays an l imporant part.
 Delving deeper into the state of mind | of the people of New York state, we find there a sort of general protest. It 1 is a protest against certain tendencies i of the government both federal and
 state. It is protest which may or may
 not lead to revolution, but it must be 1 admitted that 1t is at least of the chemical compassion from which revolutions usual 1 ly evolve. The protest as to national
 affairs involves, in greater or less de-
 gree, most of the elements of society. l Business men complain because the policy of the federal government has led
 to too much interference with business
 All sorts of men complain because the | policy of Governor Hughes has led to too | much interference with private habits, or
 at least to threat of such interference.
 Labor men complain that the party in
 power is the party of trusts and of bank | ing and of high finance; that it Is respon-
 sble for the panic of last year; that
 it is responsible for the high cost of
 living and the shortage of employment These generalizations are based upon l well-nigh innumerable specific instances upon conversations with all classes of men,
 which have brought forth the voice of
 complaint and protest. The sum total
 of this attitude of the public mind--I am speaking of New York and the surround | ing community, not of the west or any other part of the country-may be sum | med up in this one terse sentence-the | desire for change. Nothing else could | better express that which to me seems the dominant note of the public mind in this region.s It is a contagious and
 perhaps unreasoning and yet very marked
 and possibly decisive dscontent with that
 which is, that is going to find expression
 at the ballot box.
 As to the first of these protests, it is l undoubtedly true that MT. Taft has in- | herted President Roosevelt's weakness | and not his strength. That is to say,
 many men who dislike MT. Roosevelt and
 his methods are prepared to visit their prejudice upon MT. Roosevelts choice for l the presidency while not so many of the
 men who admire Mir. Roosevelt are pre- pared to accept MT. Taft because he has the Presidents o. K. It is impossible
 to transfer personal popularity, but
 1t is easy to transmit personal antipa- thies.
 I am convinced that if MT. Roosevelt
 were himself running for President this
 year he would easily carry New York,
 because of his great hold upon the masses
 of the people near the base of the pyra-
 mid of society. At the same time he
 would be heavily cut by the smaller num-
 Der of voters who dwell in the apex of
 that pyramid. MT. Tafts danger lies not in the apex. where his pre-eminent fitness
 and high qualities have full recognition,
 but lower down where the positive, the
 picturesque, the peculiar. the imagination-
 compelling public character always has
 the most friends MT. Taft, though
 through no fault of his own. has not
 caught" that element of society. He suf-
 fers by contrast And for this reason I AL. ;x.< <1~