The Montgomery advertiser., 1908-03-15
sonE roLIrrcAL srECuLATIoNs.

SOME FOLlIlCAL cfECbLAttVNs.
 The indications now are that. the two great political parties win have Mir. Hearst and his Independence party to reckon with this year much as some may be inclined to ridiepie him and hts organization. Especially will he have 70 be reckened with in his own state of New York which has So often been the battle-ground of presidential conflicts in the past. and which has So often changed sides in presidential years, one time 1t casts it's electoral vote for the Republican and another time for the Democrat. so that no one can pre- dict with certainty which party win carry 1t.
 The principal cause of this huetua. tion and uncertainty lies In the i'm mense floating vote of the state, most of 1t in New York City. These voters --and they are numerous--are men who owe no allegiance to any political party and cannot be depended on by any. They vote as inclination. caprice or interest dictates. One time they may all vote the Republican ticket and turn the state over to that party. At smother election they may vote the Democratic ticket and give the state to the Democrats. and at stiil another they may turn their backs on both and vote for ticket of their own. They are uncertain but not unimportant.
 Now. if Roosevelt or Taft Ia nom. mated there win be many thousands of Republicans in New Work who will not vote for him. If Bryan is nomin- ated many thousand Democrats in city end state will not vote for him. No one can tell how many votes either party will lose, but 1t seems certain that there will be many deserters from both In the event men we have named are nominated. There Is strong resent ment in that State against Roosevelt and 1t will extend to any man repre- senting him and be felt at the polls. There Is likewise q strong feeling against Bryan, and that too will be seen when the vote is counted.
 Here, as we view the situation. win be the Hearst opportunity. He can probably come as near controlling that floating and independent vote as any man in his state for he has the means to do it with. If he can be induced or influenced to turn that vote to the Republican candidate he will carry the State. It will be tine same with the Democrats if he Wields hfs influence with his Independence party for taem, and they will carry the State. But if for any reason he repudiates both the old parties and has a candidate of his own party whether that candidate be himself or another he win draw from both the old parties and possibly leave the State uncertain. The result would largely depend on which party he could draw most dessrters from.
 The result Of these specuiations may be easily understood when 1t is rsmem. bered that the electoral vote of New York may decide the election of a president. As we have said, 1t has gone one way at one time and the other way at another on various oe- easiona. and It may happen that its thirty-uine votes will settle the result Thus 1t Is easy to see that Hearst may yet be an important factor fin de- termining the result of the November election. And 1t is perhaps not toe much to say that his action will be de- termined by his conception of what will be of most benefit to him.