Bismarck daily tribune. [volume] (Bismarck, Dakota [N.D.]) 1881-1916, 1908-07-28
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A CROP EXPERT ON THE CROP.

A CROP EXPERT ON THE CfeOf.
The business Of crop expertness
consists largely, we take it, in know
ing the probable average yield Of a
field of grain from examination of
the heads of grain, the manner in
which the heads have filled or are
filling, the probable effect from the
time of inspection to harvest of the
probable average of weather, and the
putting together of the varying con-
ditions of different fields to form an
average for a county or certain
locality, can be nicely appropriated
and the expert who can determine
the probable average yield, taking
into account varying conditions, has
only to multiply that by his total
acreage and he has fair approx
nation of the total yield for the
/, state.
There are many things that effect
these estimates" There is, first
and most important, the state of
mind and interest of the 'expert,"
who, if he is on the bull side OF
the market, is apt to be, pessimistic
and If on the "bear" side is apt to
be optimistic. The expert" who is
interested with the buyers of grain
Is apt to be Influenced toward pre-
dieting a large crop, for the reason
that prospects Of large crop make
for low prices and vice versa. So
we are safe in discounting all pre-
dictions certain percentage for the
4 personal and very natural interest
OF the expert. Y. 54%
But taking all reports together,
we are led to believe that we shall
have a fair total crop in the state
not a bumper crop, and not record
breaker. but crop whose total will
make for prosperity and plenty in
the state. There are some bad spots
some localities have suffered from
hail, and some from heat and from
dry weather, but this is always to
be expected. ~
II. ". Jones, who is credited by
Minneapolis authorities with being
a crop expert, makes the prediction
of good crop for North Dakota
His travels have included a large
y section Of the state, and he says:
have travelled over all parts
of three states. The prospect is
for good, all around crop.
There are no sensational feat
ures in sight. The crop prom
ises we'll for wheat, oats and
Z barley, with possible decrease
in fax. Oats and barley will
y: increase considerably over last
year and 1t is reasonable to ex-
pect the largest yield of all
grains, taken together, the
northwest has ever produced.
The acreage of all grains is very
large. Some new acreage lying
in the far west counties will not
be very productive, but its pro-
duct will help swell the produc-
ton total .g...
There are great changes TAX
ing place in the crop area of the
northwest. Counties that few
years ago were large wheat pro-
ducers, have turned almost
wholly to other crops and to
dairying. On the other hand,
counties that a few years afo
were giving small acreages of
spring wheat, due to the natural
dryness OF the soil, are now
heavy producers Of durum
wheat This crop has been OBJ
iected to but 1t Is not fair to
criticize 1t as crop for dry
soils. 1t has its place at that
point, but in my judgment, it
is not adapted to black soils.
Then, counties along the Mis-
y souri, that I'VE years ago were
uncultivated, have large acreage
In grain. The far west country
along the 500, Great Northern,
and Northern Pacific. has made
a wonderful record In five years.
Large crops were raised in that
time, and farms were paid for.
This year. that section is lit
tie dry. but there will be many