The Birmingham age-herald., 1908-07-05
NICHOLAS WALL
 STREET LETTER Waits Results of the Denver
 Convention ITS HANDS ARE FOLDED Distinct Improvement Is Shown in the Bond Market - Wide Dstribu-
 ton of Dividends and h. lop terest This Year.
ITS HANDS ARE FOLDED
BY ". G. NICHOLAS.

New York. July 4-(Speeial )-WaI Street seems to have made up it's mind to fold it's hands and do nothing of con sequence until after the Denver conven- ton. It may then decide to continue in the hand folding pose until after the two rival candidates send in their letters of acceptance, eonstruing the platforms and putting themselves in shape for the great oatte Little is talked about or thought about in the Street excepting national politics although discussion thereon pro leeds in a dumb sort of fashion which leaves debaters unsettled in their minds as to what might happen in any one of half & dozen sets of contingencies which may arise after the two great parties are In line for the fight Everybody realizes that the situation is full of explosives and that there will be room for no end of disturbance and disquiet
 Few at this stage of the game are fully settled in their own minds as to the pre- else effect on business and on security values likely to follow the political de- velopments of the next four months, or even the election of the democratic or republican tickets. The one thing that they do feel strongly is that the cam paign Is more than likely to be injurious to business, no matter what the NoVem- Ter decision at the polls may be. There is tariff revision ahead in either event, The only difference in that revision being one of degree, depending upon whether the Administration and Congress are in accord or whether the Executive and the lower branch of Congress will be aligned against the Senate on the great issue. 
 It seems almost waste of time at this juncture to engage in speculation as to the outcome but there is no avoiding the question, for it is fundamentally vital to the future of industrial America and to commerce. The effect railroads will not be so marked except as that great interest depends on the general welfare or ill-fare of the country.
 The speech made by Senator Foraker at Cincinnati the other day brings to the front with unpleasant clearness the real trouble and fear of trouble that besets the business heart of the nation. Ac- cording to his lights there can be no per manent return to prosperity until this tariff question is settled and out of the way.
 Until it is so disposed of neither manu- featuring or commercial interests can proceed with assurance At best any re- covery will be half hearted and entirely Unsatisfactory to the great masses of the people, especially the workingmen.
 Talking with the president of one of the leading banks of New York, one whose sources of knowledge are most comprehensive and accurate, the remark was made by the writer that if there could be unemployment of worl1ingmen on an extensive scale between now and Nov ember. MT. Taft's chances would be greatly improved Tn my opinion said the banker there will be no re-employ' ment of workmen on large scale this year. If MT Taft is elected it will be in the face of unfavorable business and in dustral cor ditions, in my judgment.
 Here is one man at least of very wide knowledge and sound judgment who is not member of any Sunshine Club He does not look for any decided recovery in the business situation, and is in accord with Senator Foraker in believing that there can be no permanent return of good times until the industrial interests can adjust themselves to the new tariff schedules ordained for 19U5.
 The sunshiners cling resoutey to the theory that with the movement of boun- teous crops there will be change for the better regardless of political conditions and programme. In the southwest and  ter wheat is already under way, and from now on until the end of the year there will be continuously increasing tonnage of this years farm products. Inevitably the number of idle cars now on sidetracks will steadily diminish and there will be work for tens of thousands of men Tn the railroad repair shops, into which crip- pied cars and locomotives are now being sent by the thousands,
 Poor httle decrepit Erie was one of the first to move in this direction, and at the present moment practically it's entire eutipment is in readiness to meet traffic demands. The Hartman roads are also very busy, and the same may be said of Pennsylvania, Baltimore and Ohio and many of the western roads. Preparations are well advanced for the coming crop movement It cannot be said, however, that any considerable amount of new bus mess has yet gone upon the order books of the locomotive and car building con cerns
 It was something of a shock when that most careful of financial publications, the Wall Street Journal in it's semi-annual review of the transportation field an- nounced that railroads are now earning at the rate of s600 100000 a year less than at the corresponding time in 1907, and that net earnings have fallen off at the rate of $2O0 ,000, 900 a year. The full horror of these figures does not show in the re- ports of railroads covering the fiscal year ended with June, because for four or five months of that period everything was booming and the income of railroads was crowding all records. The hurt has come during the last seven or eight months. . and in solemn truth it must be said that conditions are still rankly unsatisfactory.
 In many cases arrangements have their operating departments in better control and are In position to make better showing with their comparison of net re- sults but such showings are at the ex- rense of reduced pay rolls idle equipment and suspended expenses in every possible direction. The empty dinner pail is get ting emptier and is being carried by more people despite reports to the contrary.
 One hopeful and encouraging feature of the situation is the well known fact that the panic was not caused by overproduc- ton in any important line. Whenever the buying power of over s5,000,000 popula- ton becomes stimulated there must of ne- sessity follow a reopening of manufacto- res. for the shelves are not we'll stocked and any large demand will have to be met by new production at first hand This very fact contains In itself prom lse that when prosperity returns 1t will a,,1x-