The sun., 1908-10-30
STATE KEEPS 'BM GUESSING
"POLLS" or ROTH PARTIES
EQUALLY FALLACIOUS.

On One Side You Hear That Taft May
Garry This County-On the Other
That Bryan VIII Get the State by
4O,OOO-BetS on Governor Risky.
National Committeeman William L.
Ward, Chairman Timothy l.. Woodruff
| Of the State committee and Representa-
tive Herbert Parsons. president OF the
New York county committee. have caused
to be taken for the Republicans polls as to
the prospective esult in the State on
Tuesday next. These polls ar, taken
by election district captains all over the
State There isn't campaigner Of any
renown who does not cay that polls taken
by political lieutenants must be discounted
heavily. Election district captains put
their best foot forward In thei efforts
to please their chiefs. and publishing
extravagant claims on the eve Of cleo
ton is supposed to influence heeitating
voters. PERHAPS the present campaign
will demonstrate for the future guidance
Of politician something like the true
valu, Of a Foil taken by political lieu
tenants.
It is known that Mr.. Ward. Mr.. Wood
run and Mr., Parsons on the polls sub
mittsd to them believe that Taft may even
carry New York county, that his plurality
In the State may be 10000 ami Gov.
Hughes's plurality 100000. New York
county has been lost but once t. Demo-
cratic Presidential candidate, and that was
In 1895. In 1900 New York county gave
Bryan a plurality OF 2s ,76o. and the very
general expectation is that he will have a
far greater plurality in the county this
year. Yet these election district cap
tains have loaded up poll giving the
county to Taft.
The Democratic polls submitted TO
Chairman Mack Of the national committee
and to Chairman Corners OF the State
committee are looked upon as equally
fallacious. They make it appear that
Bryan will carry the State by 4O,OOo and
that Chanler will win over Hughes by
90, 900.
In no campaign in a generation have
so many independent voters, labor voters
and negro voters declined to express their
intentions You hear IL all over the city
that there isn't a campaigner at the head
quarters, national OF State. on either side
| that has the remotest idea Of what the
silent vote is to do in this campaign
Country voters came down here yester-
day and said that the situation is utterly
mixed In almost every county. just as
much mixed, for instance, as it is in the
counties below The Bronx. The Democrats
tell you that in some counties above the
Mohawk Valley there Is an undercurrent
for Bryan and Hughes. while in the towns
along the Hudson River and in the cities
from Albany to Buffalo and in the cities
Of the southern tier there is a strong
undertow for Taft and Chanler. In this
the up-country Republicans coincide.
Both said that there are lots and lots OF
voters who will not give the slightest
inkling Of what they are to do on election
day. Those who went over the polls
yesterday county by county said they
were all guesswork,
All the Hughes 10 to 8 money was
taken yesterday by the Chanlerites. and
last night one Of the biggest commits
sioners, who must do his work secretly
Of course said: THE Chanler people
took all my Hughes hes money as nS TT to-qSy h,;yy
the Hughes men now insist that must
bet the money even" A Democratic
chieftain who has been very Bceptical
over CHAMBERS chances bet 5000 even
last night on Chanler. Certain Tam
many men whose loyalty TO Chanler
cannot be doubted felt it in their bones
Yesterday. they said. that Gov. Hughes
IL to be reelected Nobody can tell what
the Independence League vote is 70 be.
and there was report last night that
most Of it would be pumped for Taft
and Hughes. When the report got
abroad many Of the. Independence
could not be delivered that way and that
they would stand by their guns. Hisgen
for President and Shearn for Governor,
and make the best showing possible.
Mr.. Mack and Mr.. Conners and Mr., Muir
ply and Mr.. McCarren will not talk
vote, II Is their opinion that 1t will be
infinitesimal in the State and that Mr..
Hearst cannot turn over the vote OF the
league toyraft and Hughes.
The Democrats speaking OF the betting
odds Of 10 to 8 in favor Of Hughes recalled
that in the campaign Of 1904 the betting
on Herrick to beat Higgins was to up
even to the close OF the polls on election
day. A good many Democrats who
like to bet on the result In the State
won't bet; they say it is too close.
Chairman Hitchcock of the Republ blican
national committee sticks to it that both
Taft and Hughes will carry the State by
luded BY polls. but he is trying to get at
the situation himself Many Republi-
can interests which have hitherto been
opposed to Gov. hughes have within the
last day or so called upon Mr.. Hitchcock
and made it rather plain that they are
supporting the Governor. In the Demo-
cratic camp, 1t Is known. Mr.. Mack and
MIR. Conners are relying for support
for Bryan and Chanler upon certain voters
who are not for either Bryan or Chanler.
Election betting in the financial dis
trict was dull yesterday because OF a
seeming scarcity Of Bryan and Chanler
money and because Of the difficulty Of
locating bettors since the anti-betting
law destroyed the open betting market
on the curb. On the few bets on the
Presidential election thst could be verified
the odds ranged between to and S to I
ON Taft. The odds on the State election
were 10 to to to on Hughes Hughes
men said they could find no Chanler
money. Men willing to take a hier on
Bryan at to 5 couldn't find the Taft
money, and altogether there was little to
indicate any drift Of sentiment.
N ID n HItfl