New-York tribune., 1908-11-02
THE FINANCIAL MARKETS
STOCK MOVEMENTS BASED ON BELIEF OF REPUBLl-
CAN VICTORY.
Steel and Copper Trade So Marked Iouement-Money Rates
Easg Al Capitals
THE WEEK IN WALL STREET.


tanned as a rule position on the long side of
speculation. Room traders are looking forward
to the election Of AIr. Taft and a sharp rise IN
stock values Wednesday morning that VIII
afford profitable opportunity for the realZatloh
of profits followed by a subsequent opportunity
to repurchase at cheaper quotations The great
er number Of people in the street ana outslde
the Street too, believe that the market Will ao-
vance as soon as 1t is known that Mr.. Taft has
been successful, yet the outsiders nave not psen
disposed to back up their belief by the accumu-
lation of a long account in the stock market,
doubtless holding the idea that despite all lndi-
cations pointing toward a victory for the Repub-
lican pa-ty elections possess the element OF un-
certainty TO an extent that warrants extreme
caution when 1t comes to risEdng money in spec
ulative operations. With the professional trad
ers however the matter of risk is not taken
into serious consideration at the moment. II is
argued that the signs In the political horizon
indicate an overwhelming vote for the Repubi-
can candidate, and that based on the law OF
probabilities and ali Wall Street precedent
stocks not only are good purchase at current
prices but also good to hold for a longer
period than the day after election, notwithstand-
ing the prospect of attractive selling leFeI
on November 4. The market in recent weeks
has moved on lines similar TO those recorded IN
the ante-election period in the Presidential cam
paigns Of 1904 1900 1896 and 1892, and careful
observers OF conditions governing speculation
believe that the pOst-eectioT market VIII loIio"
the same course as the markets IN November
and December of past Presidential years that
IS z bulge on the day after election, succeeded
br a brief neriod of weakness. and then grad
uaI advance to new high levels. The only weak
point in this argument is found in the very Iact
that nearly every one asserts that such pro
ceCure will be recorded. Stock market values
It may be we'll to bear in mind, have haolt OF
moving 1t times contrary to general expectation
but IN the present case stocks are so closely hrIu
by strong men who are in favor OF better qUota-
tions that It appears reasonably safe to predict
IL, si,rf T0TtN
fore the close Of the year. assuming OF course
that Mr.. Bryan will be defeated.
Outside Of political cons lderations there were
g number of developments last week that were
IN favor of optimism in Wall Street General
trade conditions showed Improvement, and most
factors that have a bearing upon the intrinsic
worth of investment securities encouraged the
theory that business throughout the Chlteu
States is rapidly returning TO a normal basls.
This was particularly reflected in the quarterly
earnings Of the United States Steel Corporation
in the reduction of the number Of Idle railroad
cars in the country and in the marked improve
ment in the copper metal INDUSTRY me return
Of the United States Steel Corporation showed
an increase in net earnings for the September
quarter Of more than $700000O, as compared
with the preceding three months, while the sur
pIus after charges and generous appropriations
for depreciation and reserve funds amounted TO
figures large enough to leave balance for dlVi-
7ends far above requirements, and final sur
plus Of $5I52,023. against sl95595 in the quarter
before If the net earnings IN the last quarter
Of the wear are as large as they were in the
third quarter net results for the full year VIII pc
500 7O7 309 compared with $160,964613 in l9V'
and $4,000 900 in excess of what they were IN
the Presidential year of 1904 Based on earn
ings Of s92707.309 there would be surplus for
1908 after all deductions, including dividends OF
s11 3O3. 1863 The surplus available for the COM
mon stock on net earnings Of S927OL309 would
be a little more than per cent 1t should De
borne in mind that the earnings for the current
fifar1E 81
than 20 rer cent of normal. The concern is III
2 remarkably strong position, and 1t IS easy 10
figure out that when IT is working on a baSls Oh
100 Der cent of normal net earnings Would
amount to more than S200,0Go0Q0 a year, not
including the large income that viii be derived
from the Gary plant when in full operation II
is not surprising, therefore, that the preferred
stock of the corporation is going into investors
boxes. that the common stock Is booked loI d
much higher price and that business men
throughout the country are enthusiastic over the
future of the nations industries as result OF
/ the Improvement in the iron and steel trades.
The copper metal market which is anoIher
barometer, of trade conditions, has shown
marked Improvement in recent weeks, especlaiiE
! in the week just closed. The price OF the metal
has advanced, and though still low there is every
reason to believe that before the holidays a ma
! teriallv higher level will be recorded. a large
! part of the recent sales has been for domestic
use mines are in full operation, and there Is no
/ accumulation OF copper at any point. 1t is
/ estimated that domestic consumers have bought
/ in the last week between 22OO0UO0 and 21UUO,-
/ 600 pounds of copper. while in the same period
J foreign buyers have taken in the neghborhood
! of 15,OOG.0O0 pounds. There appears to be no
manipulation in the market for higher prices,
! and il a basis of Il cents should be established
after the election of MI Taft conservative IN
/ terests will be satisfied for the time at least.
/ The enormous expansion in the use OF copper III
! various lines of work in recent years now gives
/ the copper market greater importance as an IN
/ dication of industrial conditions than at any
previous time in the history of the trade, and the
revival in the copper trade at this time is real
/ bull factor on business conditions in general. The
/ depression Of the last year has not destroyed
any part Of the country's natural wealth, but it
has served to improve certain features OF the
] economic situation and has placed business i'll
/ all parts of the United States sounder and
/ safer basis. 1t is maintained IN some quarters
! that the appreciation in securities values IN the
/ last six months has more than discounted the
/ expected trade revival, but, based on the price
/ of money and on the factors that are making
for industrial and financial stability, quotations
/ in the greater number Of issues are not particu-
! larly high Union Pacific, for instance. which
/ has more than earned It's 10 per cent dividend
/ in year of hard times, is not dear at its pres
ent price; neither is United States Steel pre-
! ferred, which pays per cent and is quoted be-
J low 1I0.
! Money Is easy IN all the leading capitals of the
world, with no Indication of disturbance in rates
/ IN the future II is quite likely, however,
that quotations for loans gradually will work
a higher level, particularly at this centre. Il
result of enlarged demand for acCommoda-
/ tion from mercantile quarters, from the stock
market and perhaps from gold exports to Eu-
! rope. The Secretary OF the Treasury dOubtles.;
viii call upon depository banks throughout the
/ country for return of part Of the federal
funds held by them but THIS VIII be no especial
/ drain the national institutions. Interior
banks well supplied with funds. They We're
not compelled TO draw on this point for large
4 sums in connection with the financing or the
/ years harvests and they hold enough cash
! outside Of their deposits in New York to handle
F without assistance heavy home demands that
/ are exnected TO develop after the election The
senrance ~ The hnsiness 1o,7raesilr as a 49,
oil