The Salt Lake tribune. [volume] (Salt Lake City, Utah) 1890-current, 1908-11-01
Campaign Director Comedies
Nothing to Bryan Excepting
the Solid South.
MANY FACTORS MAKE
CAMPAIGN UNUSUAL
Expert Estimates Show That
Bryan Has Chance by Garry.
ing New York.
Special to The Tribune.

Special to The Tribune.
WASHINGTON, Oct 31.-The Re-
publican leaders, with President Roose-
veit IN the race, are making some ex-
traord'nary claims on next Tuesdays
election. The apprehension that was
felt by them three weeks ago, which
the president shared at the time he
hurried back from Oyster Bay to as
sumo personal management of the cam
paign. has entirely disappeared. But
Mr.. Roosevelt goes little ahead of
boosters in estimating results. He as
serts that Taft will have larger plur~
ality both of popular votes and of elect
oTs than Roosevelt secured in 1904. He
claims for Taft every northern state,
including Nevada. Montana, Kansas
and Nebraska. The latter will give
Taft 10000 plurality, according to the
lucky and Maryland of the solid south
group are put in the doubtful chances,
with chances .favoring the Republicans.
New York is claimed for Taft by 200,-
600 plurality. Indiana by 10000. Hi.
nois by over 100000 Wisconsin by 75,-
900 and Ohio by 10000,
Sure Of His Ground.
The presidents estimates are not put
forward as guesses. He has reached his
conclusions by mathematical calcula-
ton, based upon close polls aud expert
estimates. He reasons that the prehpets
who dismiss his figures as extravagant
have not taken into consideration the
three influential factors that have eb-
sorbed Democ ratio votes this year and
! the additional factor that has worked
positively TO the benefit of the Repub-
licans. The first three are the Social
| list, Independence party and Popullst
d ,-nS E'aa 1ro.r
almost exclusively from the Bryan fol-
lowing Of former years.
| The presidents information is that
/ the Socialist vote VIII average 10 per
/ cent of the total vote cast. He believes
Debs g vote alone will aggregate 1900
oo0. The Prohibition vote in many
states. he believes, will be drawn TO the
| Hughes s candidacy. opposed by the
liquor element in New York, will at
tract many thousand voters who would
otherwise stamp the Prohibition en-
blem on the ballot. In Ohio and Lndi-
ana the extraordinary prominence given
to the local option issue, where again
the Republicans are being opposed by
the liquor element. will be a magnet
to draw votes from the Prohibitionists.
Mr., Roosevelt s expectations may be
met, but ii is the judgment Of the older
politicians that be Will be disappointed
IN the sl-e OF the latt vote.
Unusual Campaign.
The campaign this year has been an
unusual one-iD many respects 1t has
recalled the election OF 1892, at which
President Harrison was defeated by
such an overwhelming vote and by such
unexpected maioritles. The vote of or
ganized labor was the great factor that
year. The Homestead strike riot was
the occasion for it. This year the vote
OF organized labor is being eoutended
for by both parties. The president s
daily epistolatory campaign carried on
to capture votes of organized labor
shows what Importance he attaches to
it, The Republicans admit that 60 per
cent. possibly 75 per cent, of the vote,
and practically all of the union en-
ployed, said 10 be 100000, will be
Democratic or Socialist. The bulk of
the organized labor vote has been cast
for the Republican national ticket in
the last three national campaigns. The
church vote is likely TO be a silent fac.
tor of more Importance this year than
usual.
With so many doubtful factors 10 be
considered, il would not be surprising
to old campaigners if many estimates
based on ordinary conditions go awry
this year.
Summary of Situation,
Finally summing up the general situ-
alton, it would seem that Mr.. Tart has
the better chance by far of winning.
First he ought to be able TO carry
New York. especially with Hearst s ac-
tivity aiding him. Without New York
it is hard TO see how Mr., Bryan can
hope TO win. His responsible managers
make no serious claim TO that state.
They do make a serious claim 70 Ohio,
and their expectations are justified by
private advices received from Ohio Re,
publicans The Democratic hope OF
Wisconsin is based almost entirely upon
the expectation that La Toilette 8
friends will knife Taft But the best
information obtaiEable affords nothing
tangible OH which 10 base the hone, The
senator is warmly advocating Taft his
closest friends estimate Tart S piuralitY
at 10000. Democratic expectations ~
Indiana as the election approaches seem
TO crvstallize around their state ticker
aud legislature. Thev admit the prob
ability of Taft carving the state 30,
granting Mr.. Bryan Nebraska, and even
Indiana or Ohio, be has nc, change or
winning without New York, ana ms
friends admit that nothing short or
Landslide can Give him New York.