Burlington weekly free press. [volume] (Burlington, Vt.) 1866-1928, 1908-08-06
PROSPERITY Is pROPHESIED
Crops, Business and Politics Fav-
orable, Says President Van
Cleave.
bryan Pronounced Less Of a Menace
thnp In 1s08-Crop values Incrcas-
ed 100 Per Cent, Population
"a Per Cent, in IL Ycnrs.

In the current number American In
dustrics. James w. Van Cleave, President
of the National Association of Manufac-
turers, expresses the opinion that there IS
to be AN early return Of the prosperity
which was Interrupted nine months ago"
Inc iact mat this Is n presidential
year ne 'ays. docs not necessarily
| mean that It will check the trade revival.
| Iho"sh the uncertainty of the canvass
disturbed trade in 1896, trade was active
In 1900 and 1904 If. rs most of us hone
the vcruict Of November g. 1905 repeat,
the story Of 1896 and 1900 then prosperity
is likely ~ reach us before 1909 is far
advanced"
In his analysis OF tho present situation,
by which he arrives at his conclusion, Mr.
Van Clcave says I'm part;
| In some respects the situation in the
mid-summcr of 1908 is similar to that Of
1896. Then as now. trade was stagnant.
l5ut tho causes OF the stagnation arc
much less serious now than they we're
then. AT that time tho country had not
recovered from the effects of the panic
or 1929 and that convulsion was far more
widespread and disastrous than was the
setback Of 1876 In 1896, and in 1908. politics
was a disturbing element In the situation
| As all of us remember. the disturbance
came from the same candidate who caus-
|es 1t this year Tho candidate, however
was far moro formidable then than he
seems to be to-day The cause for the
alarm at that time was real and I'M
mincnt. and the business torpor register
ed the alarm.
| AS | view the situation there are three
favorable factors ut prcscnt-crops,
money. and politics. The general aggre-
gate of the crops promises to be greater
than ever before. Money is plentiful and
| low. The result OF the elections of 1896
and 1900 stands an excellent chance to be
repeated In 1908. In using these words
| though. / want 1t to be understood that
there is no partnership In anything that
| | Will say here.
INCREASE IN CROP VALUES.
While the country's population has in
creased "A per cent. since 1896. the corn
yield this year promises to be q per cent
greater than II was then the wheat crop
is 40 per cent. larger than It was in that
year. and the cotton output 10 50 per cent
greater than 1t was then. while the ag-
gregate value OF all farm products in
1908, according to the forecast made by
~
GA,oOo.tCO. which Is 100 per cent more
than that OF 1896.
In the Same twelve years in which the
country's inha bitants increased "a per
cent It's population has grown 100 per
lcent. The banks of New York. Chicago
St. Louis. and the rest Of the money
centres seldom held more cash than they
do now. All OF us have read that much
a
past two months But neither the stock
nor the money market has shown the
slightest uncasiness on that account. As
Europe has "A much smaller supply OF
leash than We have. and as, FOR the
moment. We can spare a good deal of IT,
We are lending II to Europe knowing
that we can get 1t back, wherever we
need.
We know this because We obtained more
Igold from Europe during the acute stage
Of the money scare a few months ago
than We ever received from abroad before
in anything like that length Of time, and
far more than any other country ever
gained IN twice or thrice that period. Our
foreign trade meanwhile furnished n
striking illustration of the countrys i'm
mense recuperative powers. When the
scare hit us our exports Immediately
shrunk and our exports expanded, Thus
we established an amount of new credits
which enabled us to draw heavily on the
rest Of the world for Golu.
NORMAL CONDITIONS AT HAND.
| Our exports fell off somewhat in recent
months, but they are once more on the
up grade. The imports. In which there
was decrease of 50, 100. 900 in the fiscal
year 1905. as compared with 1907, are also
advancing once more. This Is n detail
of large significance. The fact that We
lare again beginning to buy In Europe in
lgreat quantities, is one of the signs that
normal conditions in business are close
at hand
| On all sides We see evidences that the
tide has turned. steady improvement
from this time onward may BIZ looked for
with confidence. In New York. Chicago.
Pttsburg st. Louis. Boston and other
industrial centers mills are reopcnina
their doors. The stocks of goods in the
hands of manufacturers and wholesalers
have been reduced to low figures. and the
resumption OF purchases. which is under
was in all the great lines of trade. is
beginning to send in orders to the
factories with little of their old-time
volume.
| Within the past three weeks the out
put of the mills of the United States Steel
Corporation has been increased 10 per
cent. over the average of recent months.
The promise is that by the beginning of
November that largest OF the worlds
steel concerns Will be running It's works
10 nearly their fun capacity. The in
dependent steel mills, which furnish al
most half OF the country's product, are
also responding to the upward turn In
trade.
FEWER IDLE CARS.
The Improvement is registering itself in
the reduction of the number Of idle loco
motives and cars When the number was
ut Its highest, In the closing days Of April
AGO cars were sidetracked throughout
the United States for lack Of work. In
the closing days of July the number had
dropped below the 10000 line The heavy
crops, which in a few weeks will begin TO
the number OF IDLE cars down to very
small figures before November. II the
election turns out TO be what large ma
jority o. the business men of the country
want 1t to be, and what they expect IL
to he, every locomotive and car in the
United States will probably be actively
at work by January first,
| hope no reader of American Industries
will overlook the fact that Europe is be-
ginning 10 purchase American securities
again This is a significant sign. When