Evening times-Republican. [volume] (Marshalltown, Iowa) 1890-1923, 1908-08-03
'FA7' YEARS At HAND
Greatly Improved Industrial
Conditions Promise Salts
factory Dividends
BUSINESS OUTLOOK BETTER
Professor Henry C, Adams, Of Inter-
state Commerce Commission Gives
Interesting Theory of Recurrence of
Panics-RuIe Seems to Be Ono First
Glass Panic Every Twenty Years.

Especial Washington Correspondence
Washington. Aug 3.-That period
of wears is AT hand, in which safe. sta
bile and highly satisfactory dividends
will be paid on the shares of Industrial
and transportation companies. Is the
confident prediction of Professor Henry
c. Adams. for twenty years in charge
of statistics and accounts for the in
terstate commission.
The stakeholder is coming into his
own" Is the way Professor Adams.
than whom there Is no more careful
student of industrial and financial con-
ditions in America. phrased his pre-
diction. He proceeded to explain:
This theory of the periodicity OF
panics is rather a fascinating one.
People who insist that panics have re-
lation to the sun spots make out most
interesting case for their opinion.
Other theories are likewise we'll sup
ported Whatever the fact. 1t seems
pretty we'll authenticated by long ex-
perience. that it takes about ten years
for the business cycle to complete 1T
self. The rule seems to be that there
is big. first class panic each twenty
years, with a lesser distribution of the
same sort but less intensity, at each
Intervening ten-year period.
I'VE are going thru one of these de-
pressions now. 1t was preceded by a
period of intense business activity. In
evitably. during such a period, men
lose more or less of their caution. Ev-
erything seems prosperous and the fu-
ture promising, and there is less care
taken to watch details Of management
and expenditure. SO when the depres-
sion comes, and revenues fall away, the
managers cast about for means to re-
duce expenses. They have been finding
cut for the larger part of year past.
where to make economies; where they
We're permitting part of their money to
go into avoidable expense. They have
been taking in the slack. getting things
on the safe and secure basis. 1t has
been severe experience, but from the
standpoint of the shareholder it has
been really good thing.
1.-The depression will end, and bust
ness will be good again; it's volume. in
the next cycle. will be greater than
ever But the lesson of this period of
economies will not be soon
unlearned. The increasing revenues will
be paralleled off against columns show
ing reduced expenditures in many
ways. There will be greater care and
economy, with the result that the
will have a better share
to him"
Professor Adams is uncertain about
one aspect of the present depression:
There is no doubt that we had major
crisis in 1873 and 1893" he explained.
Ten years after 1893 we We're due for
a minor depression. Well. we had one;
but it was rather symptomatic; it did
MT amount to much. If 1t was fairly
to be set down as the mid-period panic,
then it proved that panics are getting
milder, apparently: that with the bet
ter organization and greater developed
wealth back of our industrial and fin
ancial structure, it can more securely
stand against this tendency to recur-
rent troubles.
But the depression of 1904 was of
such slight consequence that I am I'M
certain whether to classify the pres
ent of 1907 depression as the belated
1903, or the major disturbance which
was due in 1913, but got here ahead OF
time. 1t is somehow out Of its period
a bit It's four years late for a second
gradd panic, or else six years ahead
for a first-grade one.
eve all remember a few years ago
the captains of industry and finance
were assuring us that the time for
panics was past. They told us that
the balance of supply and demand, of
wages and capital expense and all 9TH
err factors going to make up the gen
aral business situation had been so
perfected, and the control Of things 50
far centralized in strong hands, that
that balance would not again be per-
mitted to be gravely disturbed. Wise
and farseeing men would anticipate
causes and. applying prevention and
adjusting the factors in the scale, pre-
serve the balance. A good many peo-
Pile got to believing it. I was not one
Of those who accepted the doctrine
But there are some circumstances
about the present depression which
give color of justification to this claim
IF the industrial leaders. If the pres
INT is the debated small panic that
ought to have come in 1908, it must
De conceded that this new adjustment
IF forces has served to postpone it for
four years: which is worth while. If
On the other hand the small depression
Of 1903 $50 small as hardly to be re-
called noW-was the regular interme-
liate one, then it's force was certainly
greatly reduced. If. finally. the pres
int depression is the major one that
ought to have come in 1913 or there
abouts. but is ahead of schedule. it.
also. compared with 1893 and 1873.
must be set down as proof that some
hing new in conditions has taken
much of the force and destructiveness
of ior onpv1,1ciNnS