Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1908-07-05
Financial News Letter
BY W. G.. NICHOLAS.

Special Correspondence Of The Star.
NEW YORK. July 1. 1908.
Wall street seems to have made up its
mind to fold its hands and do nothing or
consequence until after the Denver con-
vention. 1t may then decide to continue
in the hand-folding pose until after the
two rival candidates send in their letters
Of acceptance constituting the platforms
and putting themselves in shape for the
great battle. Little Is talked about or
thought about in the street excepting ma
tional politics, although discussion there
on proceeds in a dumb sort of fashion
which leaves debaters unsettled In their
minds as to what might happen IN any
one Of half a dozen sets of contingencies
which may arise after the two great
parties are in line for the fight. Every
body realizes that the situation is full OF
explosives and that there will be room
for no end of disturbance and disQu1et.
Few at this stage Of the game are fully
settled in their own minds as to the pre-
else effect on business and on security
values likely to follow the political de-
yelopments Of the next four months, or
even the election of the republican or
democratic ticket. The one thing that
they do feel strongly is that the campaign
Is more than likely to be injurious to
business no matter what the November
decision at the polls may be. There is
tariff revision ahead in either event, the
only difference in that revision being one
of degree. depending upon whether the
administration and Congress are in &C
cord, or whether the executive and the
lower branch of Congress will be aligned
against the Senate on the great issue.
i
1t seems almost a waste Of time at this
juncture to engage in speculation as to
the outcome, but there is no avoiding the
question, for it Is fundamentally vital to
the future of Industrial America and to
commerce. The effect on railroads will
not be so marked except as that great in
terest depends on the general welfare or
ill-fare of the country. The speech made
by Senator Foraker at Cincinnati the
other day brings to the front with I'M
pleasant clearness the real trouble and
fear of trouble that besets the business
heart of the nation. According to his
lights there can be no permanent return
to prosperity until this tariff question Is
settled and out of the way. Until it is
60 disposed of neither manufacturing nor
commercial interests can proceed with as
surance. At best, any recovery will be
half-hearted and entirely unsatisfactory
to the great masses of the people, espe-
c1aly the WOrklngmen.
~
Talking with the president of one OF
the leading banks of New York, one
whose sources of knowledge are most
comprehensive and accurate, the remark
was made by the writer that if there
could be unemployment of workingmen
on an extensive scale between now and
November Mr.. Taft's chances would be
greatly improved. ''In my opinion" said
the banker. there will be no re-employ
ment Of workmen on a large scale this
year. If Mr.. Taft is elected it will be in
the face of unfavorable business and in
dustrial conditions, in my judgment"
Here is one man at least Of very wide
knowledge and sound judgment who is
not member of any Sunshine Club. He
does not look for any decided recovery in
the business situation and is in accord
there can be no permanent return of
good times until the industrial interests
can adjust themselves to the new tariff
schedules ordained for 1909.
The sunshiners cling resolutely to the
theory that with the movement OF bounte-
Gus crops there will be change for the bet
ter, regardless of political conditions and
program. In the southwest and lower
western zone the movement of winter
wheat is already under way. and from
now on until the end of the year there
will be a continuously increasing ton
mage Of this years farm products. In
evitably the number of idle cars now on
side tracks will steadily diminish, and
there will be work for tens OF thousands
Of men in the railroad repair shops, into
which crippled cars and locomotives are
hein hSyf hn tho,, dc
little decrepit Erie was one of the first
to move in this direction, and at the pres
ent moment practically its entire equip
ment Is in readiness to meet traffic de-
mands.
The Hartman roads are also very busy,
and the same may be said of Pennsyl-
vania, Baltimore and Ohio and many of
the western roads. Preparations are we'll
advanced for the coming crop movement.
1t cannot be said, however, that any con-
siderable amount of new business has yet
gone upon the order books of the locomo-
tive and car building concerns.
-
1t was something of a shock when that
most careful of financial publications, the
Wall Street Journal, in it's mi-annuai
review of the transportation field, an
nounced that railroads are now earning at
the rate of $500. 100000 a year less than
at the corresponding time in 1907, and
that net earnings have fallen off at me
rate Of $2OO,OOO,OOO year. The full hor-
rOr of these figures does not show in the
reports of railroads covering the fiscal
year ending with June, because for four
or five months of that period everything
was booming and the income of railroads
was crowding all records. The hurt has
come during the last seven or eight
months. and in solemn truth it must be
said that conditions are still rankly I'M
satisfactory.
In many cases homogeneous have their
operating departments in better control
and in a position to make better
showing with their comparison Of net re-
suits, but such showings at the ex-
pense of reduced payrolls. idle equipment
and suspended expenses in every possible
direction. The empty dinner pail is get
ting emptier and is being carried by more
people, despite reports to the contrary
One hopeful and encouraging feature of
the situation is the we'll known fact that
the panic was not caused by overproduc-
ton in any important line.
Whenever the buying power Of our So
100000 population becomes stimulated