The Democratic advocate., 1908-08-28
TAFT,s REAL DANGER.
A Railroad Crisis This Fall May Throw
the Election to Bryan.


From Washington Post, indicative
foe of Mr.. Bryan.
The writer of the following letter
is prominent Republican, who
throws new light on the political
situation. The writer's opportunity
for obtaining information at hrst-
hand, his great frankness, and his
long experience in politics, give spec
ial importance to his views:
Editor Post: Unless Taft secretly
surrenders to the interests" during
the campaign, they can and Will eject
Bryan and deadlock Roosevelt legls-
laticn for four years with Senate
freed from the influence of patronage
and dependent wholly upon corpora
ton support. Bryan's hostile meas
ures may be more inimical than those
of Taft's would be. But he cannot
pass them, whereas Taft can pass
his. A cannon ball that misses
you doesn't hurt as much as little
bullet that hits the spot. Adminlstra-
ton congressman cannot get along
without the patronage. The postmas-
ters are necessary in nominating con-
ventions. But with Bryan giving all
the patronage to the Democrats, Re-
publican senators and representatives
will have no hope except In corpora
ton support. They will defy Bryan,
but submit to Taft, as they were COM
PEELED to submit to Roosevelt. Furth-
ermore, Taft's election will be COM
mand from the people. to go on with
Rooseveltism; and if he has made Sc
cret conservative promises, ne Will
not be able to keep them.
Contrary as it may seem at hrst
thought, the only SAFETY for Wall
Street lies in the election OF Bryan.
That alone will check the Irresistible
sweep of Rooseveltism-check it for
four years, when renewed prosperity
may end it forever. 1t is the 'peo-
ple," and not the Interests that are
in need of legislation. What the lat
ter want above all things is to be let
alone" The vague fear that Roose-
veltism may, unless checked, finally
end either in socialism or imperialism
will hang-now hangs-as a dread
over the investment markets of the
world and destroy millions of values.
''The protected manufacturing in
terests are, no doubt, sincerely for
Taft. They can rely on him not to
do any genuine tariff revising. But
even they will not put up much
money, simply because they can de-
pend on the Senate to defeat anything
to which they may seriously object.
On the other hand, the railroads, which
are at heart for Bryan for the reasons
just stated, are preparing the coun-
try for crisis in October by saying
and proving it-that to avoid bank
ruptcy they must either reduce wages
or raise the rates. II Roosevelt al
defeated. If they reduce wages, a
gigantic strike will elect Bryan.
'The railroads are in bad fix. They
are only just now beginning to feel
the pinch of the panic that came nine
months ago. The momentum Of the
traffic movement then existing has
been progressively slowing down, in
spite of constantly promised improve
ment. With the most abundant and
the cheapest call money ever known
throughout the world, stocks hesitate
to advance, even when this favoring
situation is powerfully reinforced with
the certainty of big crops at good
prices. This hesitation is because of
the dread that dividends must be cut
more and more, and that defaults in
interest will reap a crop of receiver
ships. The appalling decline in gross
earnings will soon tell it's tale. The
net earnings thus far have been rel
atively kept up by drastic cuts in op-
Grating expenses. But this process
has reached it's limit Even big crops
will not greatly increase the gross
earnings for many months to come.
This is because of the universal tide
Of retrenchment. Everybody cuts eX-
penses 25 per cent. and freight traffic
falls off % per cent. But this 25 per
cent. loss of gross earnings may cas-
lily be 100 per cent. of the profit of the
roads-if they cannot reduce their
operating expenses below rs per cent.
of their gross receipts. Big crops,
plentiful money, and loud prosperity
talk cannot stop the rush of every
family to economic in time to help
out the earnings of the railroads be-
fore election. Nothing but a spasm
OF confidence, such as we have never
can start all the people to
spending money in a sum-
mer of unparalleled commercial fail
ures. Beneath the surface the out
look for Taft is blue indeed.
ut is true that the West is prosper
0us already, and that coming big crops
are going to receive higher prices
than ever. Nevertheless, the political
tide in the West is running strongly
N the direction of radicalism. Every
body felt this in his bones during the
two conventions, and the whole Den
YER convention suddenly realized it
when Senator Gore said that in the
latest of elections little Oklahoma
repelled Taft and followed Bryan by
100000 majority. All the delegates
being Office seekers, it suddenly fash
ed on them that there was a chance
% win, and they spontaneously went
crazy. All the correspondents whom
have read failed to see the real point
20 this pivotal incident of a whole
campaign. The idea that
his demonstration was preconcerted
S a profound and-for the Republi-
dangerous mistake. All the
fireworks had been pre-
pared for the next day, when Bryan
vas to be nominated. And they work
I'd all right then for over an hour,
N spite of the discounting by the
Gore premature explosion of an hour
Ind a half duration. This general
Western radicalism would have sup
ported Roosevelt, but the very talk
hat Taft is more conservative may
easily impel it to stampede for Bryan.
Roosevelt created the movement, but
le cannot control it. He cannot de-