Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1907-04-21
Finanial News Letter,
BY W. @. NICHOLAS.

By w. q. NICHOLAS
NEW YORK, N. T.. April 20, 1907
The market moves fitfu1ly up and down
between narrow limits. The big banking
interests are trying to prevent any renewal
Of the bull speculation, and they are also
ready to support the market against further
attacks by the bears. The banking attitude
may be judged from this statement from
one of the biggest bankers in the street:
Il should very much regret to see specu-
lative bull movement at this time. The
stock market needs sustained period of
quietness and rest. The call money market
is easy, but there is no time money. If we
are to have bull market now. call money
rates would climb skyward. The call money
market Is artificial. 1t can become nat
ural by the absence of bull speculation.
know of corporations. of railroads and in
dustrial concerns by the score, which need
sums ranging all the way from $1.00O.OO0 to
50.00O,0G0 apiece. 1t would be very bad
thing to invite these people to come into
the market at this time for funds. If they
do. 1t will precipitate conditions which ex-
listed a few months ago. l believe that
stocks will not fuctuate beyond a range Of
10 points or so. 1 think Union Pacific will
range from 13J to 49, and that other stocks
will act accordingly. Granted continuance
of this until perhaps next fall We shall
have laid the foundation for bull market.
If we do not have a rest until then, then a
sustained bull movement in stocks will be
indefinitely postponed
Wall street, despite the daily reports of
big business through the country, looks for
an industrial setback, If only a small one.
1t is a fact that the strongest and most
progressive combinations of capital and
brains in the country have determined to
put on the brakes. They-have summarily
and decisively stopped plans Of extension
and development wherever they are not
committed beyond retrieve. This concert
of action on the part Of important interests
foreshadows lee-down in industrial and
commercial activities, decrease in the
volume of business. and eventually gen.
eral reduction of wages The course OF
prices of stocks depends on whether or not
this period of depression has been discount
ed by the decline which has already taken
place
The public holds aloof. Investors who
didn't buy stocks in the first big break in
the middle of March made a solemn resolu-
ton that if ever again in the history of the
country prices got SO low they would mort
gage their families and put all their money
into railroad stocks. Then few days later
there was another big break in the market
and prices went lower. Investors were
fright tened again. and after the bargain ia
BILE had been cleared OF they made an even
more solemn resolution that nothing would
swerve them from their purpose to buy
good stocks if they ever sold down again.
The public may have third chance. But
1t will be the same old story. The general
public is always frightened to put its money
in stocks when they are on the bargain ia
Bile. 1t never has the courage to plunge
until prices are up In the air.
X
Meanwhile the street is full Of rumors of
the dissolution and retirement Of number
Of banking and brokerage firms which have
in the past cut large figure in the stock
market. as we'll as In the financing OF en-
terprises OF magnitude. In at least two
cases the names of the houses referred to
have been very freely discussed ever since
last fall. The occasion OF this unpleasant
gossip and notoriety was their identinca-
ton with pools and syndicates OF various
kinds having in them the element OF specu-
iation. 1t Is more than likely that one at
least of these concerns will wind up Its
affairs and quit business. The active part
ners are men of large wealth and well ad-
yanced In years. They have been In the
thick of the Wall street fight for long
time and are tired OF the strife and ex-
element of the game
t.
1.-THE trouble with the market" says
leading operator, who started in to bull
stocks right after the worst was over in
March. lis that there Is no confidence.
Sentiment is bad. 1 bought lot of stocks
at what I still consider are bargain prices,
and I followed them up 10 to 20 points.
Then. when 1 tried to interest others In
them l saw 1t was no use. So l cleaned
out my line of stocks. 1 cannot be very
bearish on the market. because 1 am not
going to try to sell stocks into the ground.
II they get down dirt cheap again / am
going to make another try at it, but l am
not going to attempt to restore public con-
fdence. Id rather see somebody else do
that. My own personal opinion about the
political situation as 1t affects securities Is
that next year. when the campaign gets
started. Mr.. Roosevelt will be regarded as
the really conservative force in American
politics. This probably sounds strange now.
but wait till the other fellows begin shout
ing
Money is temporarily cheap In the call
market. but this cannot continue very
long The whole country has expanded its
credits The national banks of the coun-
try on March %. a date about midway
between the two panicky days in the stock
market. reported loans of more than 81
5OOO00.U0, an increase of S40O,OOOOOO over
the corresponding date last year. and Of
81, 600 900. 600 over the corresponding date
three years ago. The size of this item in
the country's national bank statement is
indicated by comparing it with the loans
in March, 1901. when We were in the
midst Of a great bull speculation in Wall
street The loans then were only $500,
100000 The loans are two and one-half
times as large they were at the begin
ming of our ten-year period of prosperity.
Here's the true inside story of a certain
unpleasant event: A young man. we'll
known in society and in the sports of gen.
tlemen had a motor car Mr.. AS car was
one of those beautiful French machines
that suddenly increase III cost as they are
taken out of the hold of the steamer and
landed on American soil. Mr.. A had 5000
in the ear. He got bunch one day that
the stock market was a sale, and the par
ticular stock that he thought was a safe
Investment" as a short sale was Erie. The
stock was selling well up in the 40s. This
was along in the winter. He sold his car
for 81; 600 and took the money to a broker