Daily Kennebec journal. [microfilm reel] (Augusta, Me.) 1870-1975, 1907-07-29
Enough Coal In Sight to
Last Many Years.
Statement by Dr.. Geo. Otis Smith
Of Geological Survey
corrects Erroneous and Alarming
Reports Recently Circulated.

Washington, July 2S.-Oficials of the
United States Geological Survey have
recently been cited in the press as au-
thorities for sensational items predict
ing the early exhaustion Of our fuel
supplies. In the hope that erroneous
Impressions derived from these some
what misleading articles may be cor
rected, DIR. George Otis Smith, the d.
rector of the survey, has given out an
authoritative statement prepared by
Messrs NJ. r. Campbell. in charge Of
the economic geology of fuels, and f.
w. Parker, coal mining expert and
statistician. The articles as originally
published represented the judgment of
the surveys experts, but the trouble
has arisen from incomplete quotations
made from them, which have omitted
essential qualifying statements. These
quotations have been requoted in mod
flied form until nearly all semblance
of the original has disappeared.
The surveys experts wish to empha-
size the fact that the uncertainty in
predicting for the future rests upon
many unknown factors, chief among
which is the future rate of increase in
consumption. During the last so years
production has increased enormously,
the output for each decade being nearly
u double that of the preceding one,
and il this rate Of increase were to con-
tinue uninterruptedly we might look
for an exhaustion of the bituminous
coal supply early in the 21st century.
Against this, however, must be set a
number of counteraeting influences.
improvements in mining methods Of
consumption are increasing its eff
cheney as fuel. AS the more accessible
coal becomes exhausted and the deeper
and more extensively mined beds have
to be worked, the higher cost will ne
cessitate further increase economy in
mining methods and greater efficiency
| in utilization.
The facts are that an estimate of our
bituminous coal fields, prepared with
much care by Mr.. Campbell, shows that
the total quantity of coal stored in the
ground was about 100000 ,O00, 900 short
| tons. From this supply there have been
| extracted, according to Mr.. Parker's
| figures, to the close of 1906, about 4,625.-
| 0d0,000 short tons, and, estimating re-
| covery Of &C 2-3 per cent.--or, in other
| words. assuming that for every ton of
| coal mined there is a half-ton lost
| this represents an exhaustion of nearly
| 1000, 100000 tons, or only about one
| third of l per cent. of the total supply.
| We produced and consumed in 1906 lin
round numbers) 343,OO0,O 900 short tons,
which represented, say, 500,OJ0.OO0 tons
of exhaustion, for our practice in this
! regard is improving with each year,
| ic fnn
than formerly. At this rate, if no in
| crease We're to be allowed for, the BIZ
luminous coal supply would last about
1000 years. Taking into account, how
ever. the probable rate, first, Of in
| crease, and later. of decrease in pro-
duction, Mr.. Campbell and Mr.. Parker
are of opinion that the bulk of the
| cheaply mined bituminous coal will be
exhausted within 200 years; but wher,
the period Of decreasing production sets
in, the need for fuel will doubtless be
supplied in considerable degree by the
utilization of other forces of nature,
thus extending the life of the bitumi-
nous coal fields.
So far as the anthracite region Of
Pennsylvania is concerned. predictions
of exhaustion have been based mainly
Oil estimates made by the Pennsylvania
Geological Survey. which show that
there were originally in the ground
about 1880, 900 long tons of coal.
and that for every ton of coal mined.
one and half tons we're lost. This
would mean that only 7,SO0,000,00O tons
of the original supply were recoverable.
To the close of 1906 the production has
amounted to approximately 1.65O.0O 900
tons. which would leave 6.15O,0O0,OO0
tons still available, and this, at the
rate of production during the last four
years (about 65,OOO.O0O tons a year,
would last about 90 years. Later esti-
mates made by William Griffith or
Scranton, Pa, placed a quantity or
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