Deseret evening news. [volume] (Great Salt Lake City [Utah]) 1867-1920, 1907-01-08
TALKING OF PANICs.

Those who believe in the periodlclty
| of panics and financial crises, explain
that the country had severe crisis In
and following 1887. At the end of 10
years there was lacking any noticeable
reaction, but in 1867 came panic OF
| great severity. The Intervention of the
| Civil War broke UP the regular Indus
trial order, and this country went
through the 10-year point following
without trouble, though England did
not. Our timo came in 1873. which
brought the worst panic experienced
since 1887. Ten years from 1879 saw
the moderate depression OF 1883 fol-
lowed by the financial panic of 1884.
Ten years again brought the very dis
astrous crash of 1898. And thus, we are
told every twentieth year or nearly 80,
proves to be a year OF depression.
In view of the notes of warning
sounded in the financial world recently.
the following description of the situa-
ton previous to tho panic of 1873 by
James Ford Rhodes, quoted by the
New York World. is of timely interest.
He says:
'.At that time It is not surprising
that business men and bankers did not
foresee what was coming. Prosperity
was written all over the face of things.
Manufacturers We're busy, workmen In
demand, streets and shops were crowd
ed, and everywhere new buildings go
ing up. Railroad earnings as COM
pared with 1872 showed a gratifying in
crease. Prlses of commodities were
hinh dpnlanH prpnd. AVpryhn1V
seemed to be making money and no.
body suspected for moment that he
was living In a FOOLS paradise.
For the basis of all this activity APP
peared to be sound. The wheat crop
was large and the product of corn.
though smaller than that of the previ-
Gus year, was nevertheless fairly good.
The best authorities reported that the
supply of breadstuffs in Europe would
be short and that there would be "a
ready demand at high prices for every
available bushel of our eXportable
cereals. Wheat had begun to move and
the old corn was coming forth; It was
feared that the capacity OF the rail-
roads and ocean steamships would be
insufficient TO carry the freight that
was offered them. 1t was estimated
that the cotton crop would exceed four
million bales tthen a large producD,
and for this the demand In Europe was
OF course constant.
"If prices were high, II might be
asked, were they abnormal? Transpor-
tation was the sure gauge of activity.
and was not Cornelius Vanderbilt the
greatest captain OF industry. paying
$40 per ton for steel rails for HIS four
track road? Would this far-seeing
man make such preparations at so high
"a cost unless he believed existing con-
ditions permanent Money, 1t is true,
was tight. but this was surely an in
dication of prosperity. II was due to
the demand of the West and South for
their New York funds I'm order to move
the crops. Late In the autumn the
greenbacks and other currency would
return to the money center, having
been advantageously employed in send
ing out surplus products abroad and
thereby reducing our foreign debts and
enhancing our credit.
such reasoning looked plausible
enough in August, 1873"
We do not believe In re-eehong ev-
cry alarmist note that may be sounded
these days, but the opinions Of stuy-
vesant Fish, Rockefeller and Secre-
tary Shaw are entitled TO consdera-
ton, and they all counsel TO conserv-
ausm. The surest way by which to
avert a panic Is TO avoid wild specula-
ton and make progress sure, even II
slow. II is well to learn wisdom OF the
past.