New-York tribune., 1907-05-12
The Financial World.

standpoint of trade activity and trade profit sat
isfaction is practically universal. UnseasonabIe
| weather is somewhat disturbing element. COM
mercial agency advices being that retail trans
actions measurably retarded in many parts
of the country, though the same authorities
agree that nothing unhealthy is anywhere dis
closed. What Wall Street suffers from is IN no
way attributable to commercial or industrial
conditions.
Crop reports occasion some agitation In specu-
lative quarters: some shading Of optimism fol-
lows official government estimates OF damage to
winter wheat. 1t is in the grain market though
that this is most reflected stocks being neglected
rather than affected. while traders compete IN
excited procIamatIons that crop shortage is sure
| to be so great that dollar wheat is right ahead.
The government forecast seems to indicate con-
| traction of approximately S0,0O00O0 bushels. as
compared with the earlier prospect, and S0.0OO,-
! 600 can be estimated as trifing by nobody, how
ever hopeful. Yet Informed people will be likely
to keep in mind that this shrinkage, big it is.
! represents actually only about half of the wheat
| left over from last season. still unmarketed-
Consideration, too, will also be commanded by
| the fact that Government preliminary figures do
| not always tally with final results-for we have
| 10 back only twelve months to find that
| ticipated yield scheduled in government figures
at this time last year proved 10 be, when har-
/ vests were over SOils 4VVUU,JUU DUSnels out OF
the way; and good weather from this time for
| ward may not be incapable Of similar good ef-
| fects this year.
What, moreover. can have some influence
stock market sentiment is that shorter crop at
| higher figures will not materially diminish ag-
riculturaI revenues; and what every railroad
authority in the country has agreed upon Is that
even If the very worst OF crop forecasts comes
| true. the congested railway systems OF the West
| the years traffic.
| What aIls Wall Street sentiment cannot
fairly be attributed to any change In the
| tionaI crop situation. This is no winter
wheat country.
| Iron and steel conditions betoken not merely
maintenance of high level records. but assurance
| of further in1provement-and so the record runs.
indeed In virtually every manufacturing quarter.
Illustration OF q phase OF American business
expansion not popularity appreciated. or at least
but scantiy discussed. appears in an award
made this week 10 the Carbon Steel Company
| of Pittsburg, for $4,000 tons OF highest grade
| steel for New York Citys new Manhattan Bridge
especial significance being in the fact that
| contract OF this Importance Sufficient TO book
a large plants capacity far ahead) goes 10 a
| steel making corporation OF which In Wall Street
/ virtually nothing is ever heard-such a contract
as hitherto has been taken only by premier COM
panies like the Carnegie. Nridvale or Pennsylva-
| MIA Steel. Barely a year ago the Carbon Steel
| Company was Hmping concern; but productive
| efficiency and financial credit are almost spon-
| taneoUsy established by new management. Z. b
Robinson. of New York. becoming the property's
executive head Such records are not mads IN
any other country.
It IS exceedingly doubtful II there can be con-
/ hdence in forecasts OF early satisfactory Sc
| curity market conditions. And for reasons there
{ is m need ~ ouezt bevOuf he a
the present week. Union Pacific theatrtcals are
| a menace again Just the more hopeful men
| OF the street were beginning 10 see light in the
| money market. along comes Union Pacific levy
OF S2O0OO0OOO. Barely half year ago Union
Pacific dividends. sensationally lacked UP TO ten
| per cent. were officially scheduled as under
| written by free assets. treasury cash resources.
OF tens upon tens OF million dollars; and all the
inside oracles were chattering IN chorus that
Union Pacific prosperity was marvellous as u
put the property into class all by 3tself-a
! claim which takes on grim significance this
| week those stupendous free assets sink into
! the background-rnaking way for the disclosure
that Union Pacific is oppressed by floating
| debt (rnore tens upon tens OF millions) and is
confronted with fnanciering exigencies that are
| savage. Critics not disposed 10 be over gen
| erous toward Union Pacific dictatOrs see in this
| weeks surprise only the natural Inevitable,
| Quence OF these gigantic stock speculationS ire
vealed upon the witness stand) which have
|
| lations which impose the putting OF mort
cages upon Union Pacific in offset against stock
| market gambling losses. High finance here
| comes nightly high
| Whether justified or not. bltterest OF criticisms
| upon the rounding out OF this extraordinary
| Union Pacific policy of stock market exploita-
| tton Is not proving actually effective as is
| that unprecedented but none the less adverse
| verdict which thoughtful investors must pass
| upon this ghastly Chapter IN Union Pacific.
The whole security market Is hurt; and affsCta-
| tion CharaCterizes any argument" that what
| hos ~ 10 9TH ,Ii-
| and damaging.
Beside this situation how inconseqUential seem
efforts to create pessmistic sentiment on some
what diminished wheat crop prospects. There
is no threat in the slogan OF dollar wheat. Dol
! lar wheat this year would be perfectly legitimate
! with or without bumper crop here. Canada.
one of our chief exporting competitors VIII raise
q smaller crop than usual and reports from
| European countries are unanimous IN forecasts
| of poor harvests. On the basis OF our govern
ment report we shall raise more than 4OO.OOO.O0O
bushels or winter wheat and II to this shall be
added a fairly normal spring wheat harvest our
total production viii not fall much short OF
! TOO,OOO.OOO bushels. Every surplus bushCl
| can spare will lind eager purchasers Dollar
wheat Is not only likely, but Is a legitimate
expectation. and dollar wheat means further
vast increased wealth 10 the American farmer.
And the probabilities are that the governments
/ winter wheat report for the next month viii
show Improvement. though interest from now
on will center in the outlook for spring wheat.
which, OF course, as yet is indetermtnats.
In any calculation TO what may be this
Immediate character OF the general security
market, 1t seems conservative to estimate that
IN large degree strength can he exDactad IN show