New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1907-05-17
CONDOLENCES.

According to recent findings of professional
observers one of the distinguishing pecularities
of man is his habit of discovering and inter-
preting condolences. AS far back the AS
syrian epoch men were known to possess this
trait. Thus the soothsayers of Assurbanipal
and even those of earlier potentates, conducted
a sort of double entry bookkeeping whereby they
recorded the varying successes Of the Kings
armies and the kind of weather and sky coin
cdent with the same From the deadly parallel
they inferred the operation Of natural laws.
If there had been an eclipse of the sun on
day when the Hlttites drubbed the hosts of
Assyria the soothsayers would assume that the
former event caused the latter and would ac-
cordngly warn their imperial master against
going forth against the Hitttes again on an
eclipse day.
Men now laugh at such Childish" reasoning,
yet in the words Of an eminent philosopher, the
whole history of human progress is describabe
as the finding of just such condolences and the
separation of fOrtuitous from significant ones.
Simple as progress seems when thus described,
the whole elaborate mechanism and logic of
modern science are devoted to just these two
apparently easy tasks. Even to-day science,
with all It's trappings finds it exceedingly diff
cult to determine whether the disappearance OF
a hard cold two days after using Uncle Johns
Syrup OF SuCcotash Is a coincidence pure and
simple or the working of some hidden law of
nature. II the skeptic will take thought he will
find himself confronted in daily life with scen-
titc difficulties as great as this
There is the strange coincidence for instance
between twenty-one drafts received by James
McCIeers', Il municipal painter and twenty-one
deposits credited to the account of William II.
Walker. Superintendent Of Public Buildings
and Offices. McCleerys drafts correspond ex-
aetIy iii amount With the same number Of de
posts made on the same days the drafts were
drawn and placed to Walkers credit at the
Greenwich Bank. Walker expressed surprise
at this weird conjunction Of Incidents pronounc-
ing ii an astonishing coincidence. Now In n
case like this the average man nclines to settle
the matter In the childish manner OF the As
syrian soOthsayers. Finding on twenty-one oc-
casions double concidence-in sum and in
date between two wholly distinct business
transactions he is prone 10 infer the operation
Of some mysterious natural law Perhaps be
VIII cover up the infantile haste Of this concIu-
sion by imposing mathematical calculations
showing that the probability of an exact coin
cidence between a draft and a deposit being
approximately l in 100000 under the most
favorable assumptions, therefore the chances of
series Of n such condolences must be
roughly only l in 1OOOOOOOOao As this last
number would require 161 figures To express IT,
Of mere coincidence are not even as good as the
chances OF winning in a poolroom And if our
amateur scientist is particularly anxious 10
cover up his bad logic he will call your attention
TO the fact that the chances OF the earth's fall
ing into the sun III the next twenty four hours
are several million times better than the above
odds for coincidence
The cautious scientist ho' ever. knows this is
all vanity. Mere coincidence proves nothing
II 1t did we should have TO believe that the
OXford-Cambridge boat races are controlled Inv
suhspots for 1t Is on record that Oxford always
wins when the spots exceed certain number
ard loses in every other case. A natural con
nection can be established, rs rule, only when
ali contributory circumstances are under the
watchful control Of the observer. 1t is safe to
say that If such control were to be exercised in
the Naiker~McCleery case, the coincidence would
suddenly cease That would obviously discredlt
all suggestions derogatory to those who govern
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