New-York tribune., 1907-12-30
lfONEY AND BUSINESS.


nronounced movement in the security Market
a;a.i,,,, Tho Fact that permanent recovery
,,d no materially retarded by spasmodlc
nor.+ions at this time. If this course Is pur-
s,od' until there is general readjuStment 10 ileW
conditions il may become possible early III 1''0
to revive interest in stocks and pohuS, e'p
cially if the predicted easy money siiouu mo
+rfaliza More dividends have been passed ana
others declared in stock, but these 1actoI' "'i'
fully discounted by the previous dec"Ie III
a,,o+a+ione which amounted to $50 90 a share
from the highest point of 1907 to the recent
lou. water mark and S44 6f from the maximum
:; 1ooe Becoverv from the bottom thus far
has averaged only ST a share for the sixty mus
acti,,a railway securities. Some OF the wan
street experts confidently expect easy money
before the middle of January, basing their est'-
mate on forced liquidation Of mercantie liiueo'-
edncss and refusal of the banks TO MAKE iodh
excent ~, collateral that be readily Sold
While It may be possible to get call money ra'eS
down to a more normal position, term accom-
mediation cannot he attained at anything Ike
ordinary quotations when so many Calls on 'l0
available supply OF money are known to be
hold hack bv present exorbitant rates alone
with the first Indication of reasonable interest
CHARGES these demands will be made upon the
hanks The situation IS gradually rlshthS
itself hut an outbreak OF speculative enthusiasm
would absorb funds needed in mercantile chan-
nels.
4 most gratifying financial fact IS the matu-
rlty of sixty-day notices of Withdrawals at the
savings banks without any important change IN
net deposits In some cases the small amounts
that were taken out fell short OF the sums
nut In. and it is evident that the people have
recalued confidence in the nations banking IN
stitutions Several moro suspended banks have
tY,o tcr
crmber ; makes better exhibit than was
expected. Interior cities have almost ceased
pavments by clearing house certificates. and
the next few weeks will bring the cancellation
o. most Of those still outstanding Payrols
are being met with cash. and currency com
inands scarcely any premium Call money has
averaged II to 20 per cent for the last week
and there is no demand for commercial paper
while the few transactions in time loans were
at very high rates.
Christmas trade very much in excess OF
expectations. a few interior cities actually re-
porting gains over 1896. while comparatively
small stocks of holiday goods will be carried
over Staple lines also felt the moderate wave
of enthusiasm. although warm weather pre-
vented a restoration Of normal retail sales OF
heavy wearing apparel and footwear Whole
sale trade is seasonably quiet. and interest in
tobbing circles was restricted TO clearance dry
goods sales These were well attended al
though there was not enough selling pressure
to produce bargain prices. Gradual restoration
Of normal conditions is expected after jan
uary |. confidence in renewed activity being
based on the belief. that money rates will be-
come easy. There is some difference OF opinion
on that point, however and the outlook is suf-
fciently uncertain to prevent any extensive ac-
cumulaton of stocks. In fact. the best feature
of the situation is the low position of supplies
in the hands of dealers. Pending more settled
conditions it has been the general policy to
buy only for immediate requirements. Foreign
commerce returns steadily increase trade bal
ances in favor of this country. and immigration
each month rises far above the arrivals year
ago. but there was no announcement in last
weeks statistics Of bank exchanges or railway
earnings.
Trading at the leading commodity exchanges
has been of the customary holiday order little
interest being exhibited except by the short ac-
count. which reluctant to carry contracts
over the few days of closed markets. This de-
mand was the chief support of cotton options,
while in the spot department there was strength
because of liberal exports. On the other hand
port receipts came forward more freely indi-
eating that planters either willing or
forced to SELL despite the moderate decline from
light. to be expected. when
about 15 per cent of the New England mills
agreed to restrict production of cotton goods for
the next two months. Grain prices have held
firm, although option trading decreased in vol
ume and aggressive speculation is in prog
ress at Chicago. Actual exports of wheat and
flour were phenomenally heavy last week,
amounting to much more than double the outgo
in the corresponding week of either 1906
1905, and aggregate shipments abroad since
July / are greater than in any year since 1902.
AS quotations were also abnormally high, the
result is most helpful in increasing the nations
foreign trade balance. Last weeks export sales
We're light. however, and little new business in
that department Is expected until after Janu-
ary /. Domestic mills grinding less
flour than year ago, although the total con-
sumption of wheat at Northwestern cities for
the calendar year thus far exceeds that of 1906
Manufacturing plants have curtaied produc-
ton over the holidays more generally than in
any recent year, and opportunity has been given
for thorough overhaung of machinery which
will make the efficiency much greater Various
reports heard regarding the dates of re-
sumption and percentage of capacity that will
remain idle. In several Industries there is def
mite improvement in the volume of new busi-
ness but the disposition will be to proceed with
caution until the future is less uncertain
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