The Salt Lake herald. [volume] (Salt Lake City [Utah]) 1870-1909, 1907-08-10
COAL WILL LAST
TWO CENTURIES
No Person Now Living Will
Witness Exhaustion of Sup
ply in This Country.
CAREFUL ESTIMATE MADE
DEMAND MAY BE REDUCED IN
FUTURE.
Especial to The Heraid)


Washington, Aug. 9.-NO person now
living will see the day when the coal
supply of the United States is exhaust
ed. The director of the United States
geological survey is authority for this
statement, but he says much more He
says that assuming the production of an
thracite continues at its present rate.
which he questions, the known supply in
the United States would last probably
$50 or even 200 years. The production OF
bituminouS coal is bound to increase, but
there is no danger Of the exhaustion OF
the supply inside of 300 years, and the
probability is that 1t viii last much
longer.
There are various factors TO be con-
sidered in reckoning on the life of our
coal deposits. Improved machinery and
improved methods viii decrease the
waste in coal production; as the more re-
mote deposits are worked, the price Will
necessarily advance. thereby tending to
reduce consumption. and to force more
economic use of the fuel. But what is
equally important, electricity is fast tax
ing the place of steam as motive power,
and is CORRESPONDENCE reducing the de-
mand for coal for steaming purposes.
Oil is being substituted for coal: so is
gasoline; so will other fuels enter the
market. All these competitors will tend
to reduce the demand for coal, and any
such reduction tends to prolong the life
of the coal industry.
No Danger of Exhaustion.
All this goes to offset sensational re
ports that have recently been given cur
rency. to the, effect that the United
States in a few years, will face a fuel
famine due to the exhaustion of its coal
supply Officials of the geological sur
vey have been cited as authorities for
these sensational stories. In the hope
that erroneous impressions derived from
these somewhat misleading articles may
be corrected, DR., George Otis Smith. d.
rector of the survey, has given out an
authoritative statement prepared by NJ
r Campbell. in charge of economic
geology of fuels, and F. w Parker, coal
mining expert and statiStician. The ar
ticles as originally published represented
the judgment of the surveys experts, but
the trouble has arisen from incomplete
quotations made from them. which have
omitted essential statements. The fol
lowing authorized statement presents the
facts as they are:
The experts of the geological survey
wish 20 emphasize the fact that the I'M
certainty in predicting for the future
rests upon many unknown factors, chief
among which is the future rate of in
crease in consumption. During the last
fifty years production has increased enOr-
mOusly the output for each decade being
nearly double that of the preceding one,
and If this rate were to continue unin-
terruptedly, we might look for an eX-
hauStiOn of the bituminOuS coal supply in
the tWenty-first century. Against THIS
however must be set number of cOun-
teracting influences. Improvements in
mining methods are increasing the
amount of coal recovered, and improved
methods of consumption are increasing
it's efficiency as fuel As the more ac-
cessible coal becomes exhausted and the
deeper and more extensively mined beds
have to be worked, the higher cost VIII
neCessitate further increased economy IN
mining methods and greater efficiency IN
utilization.
TriIIions of Tons.
The facts are that an estimate of our
bituminous cosI fields prepared with
much care by Mr. Campbell. shows that
! the total quantity of coal stored in the
| ground was about 1900 900, 100000 short
tons From this supply there have been
| extracted, according TO Mr.. Parker's fig
ures. to the close of 1896. about 4,625 000, coo
/ short tons, and, estimating a recovery of
| Go % per cent-Or in other words, aSSum-
| ing that for every ton of coal mined
| there is half a ton lOSt-this represents
/ an exhaustion of nearly l:O00,0OOV0 tons,
or only about One-thiTd of l per cent OF
/ the total supply. We produced and con-
I sumed in 1906 in round numbers, 343, 600 900
short tons, which represents say 100000 600
/ tons Of exhaustion. for our practice IN
/ this regard is improving with each year,
/ and less coal is lost per ton mined than
! formerly At this rate, if no increase
| were to be allowed for, the bituminouS
| coal supply would last about 1900 years
! Taking into account, however, the prob
/ able rate, first of increase and, later, of
| decrease in production. Mr.. Campbell and
] Mr.. Parker aTe of the opinion that the
/ bulk of the cheaply mined bituminous
I coal will be exhausted within 200 years;
/ but when the period of decreasing pro-
| duction sets in. the need for fuel will
/ doubtless be supplied in considerable de-
gree by the utilization of other forces of
nature thus extending the life Of the BIZ
| luminous coal fields
Anthracite Region.
| So far as the anthracite region of Penn
| syIvania is concerned, predictions of ex-
| haustiOn have been based mainly on es-
I Inmates made b. the PENNSYLVANIA geo
We're originally in the ground about 10, 800 =
/ 100000 long tons of coal, and that for
| every ton of coal mined, one and one-half
| tons were lost This would mean that
/ only 100000 tons of the original sup
F. ply were recoverable To the close of
1906 the production has amounted to prac-
! tically 16J0,00OO 600 tons, which would leave
! 6,150,0O0000 tons still available, and this.
/ at the rate of production during the last
| four years about 65.0G0000 tons 8 year,
would last about ninety years. Later
! estimates made by Mr.. William Griffith
| OF Scranton. Pa. placed the quantity of
! mnable Coal in the ground at the close
| of 1895. at 503S, 7S6. 80 long tons Since
| then 4 little over Sol, 900 900 tons have been
| mined. leaving, say, 100000. 900 tons avail
| able, which at the rate of 65,O00.Oo0 tons
| a year, would last about seventy years.
| But against both of these must be set
! the fact that production will not be main
1 tained at the present rate until the coal
| is gone.
Maximum of Production.
| The annual anthracite production has
| about reached its maximum When il
| does begin to decrease the rate will prob
| ably be slow. Moreover with improved
/ mining methods. and increased prices of
! coal beds are now being worked which
were not included in the available re-
serves when the estimates were prepared
In addition to this. the present practice
! Sueh that rrnbo l,Isr "a No.. 49,, -.