New-York tribune., 1907-07-29
COAL Tn ABUNDANCE.
Supply VII OutIast This Century
Any Way, Say Scientists.
TFrom The Tribune Bureau. J


vashfrgton, July 28.-Two hundred years more
.. bi+1,rnirous coal and nearly long for anthra-
+a Is the latest careful calculation Of the United
C+s,es Geological Survey experts. In the hope Of
,--acttre uryar.anted assertions that the Ameri-
or ooal fields were rapidly approaching exhaus-
.irn Dr. George OTIS Smith, the director Of the
---ev has made for The Tribune authoritative
-s-en,ert OF careful estimates prepared under his
5i-artion by IL r Campbell, in charge Of the
economic geology Of fuels. and z. ". Parker chief
- mineral resources coal mining expert and sta
,4s.frian and one Of the members Of President
T7oosavelts Anthracite Coal Strike Commission.
7-+ese TWO experts are the highest authorities in
r. United States on all matters relating TO the
a., @e,ds Some time ago The Tribune printed
soa Official figures issued from the Geological Sur
- regarding the profiisate waste OF fuel with a
-l--srr +-- economy. hut trouble has arisen from
trr-r--la-e quotations elsewhere made from them.
---5-- omitted essential QUALIFYING statements.
7-Fesa quotations have been requoted all over the
country IN modified torIn until nearly all sem
f-srce az he original has disappeared. and until
7rsnv OF the statements became sensational and
m SURVEYS experts wish 70 emphasize the fact
-Het the uncertainty in predicting for the future
- ----- many unknown factors chief among
which IS The future rate Of increase in consumption
Tn the last ftrv years production has increased
ero-r-as.g .g tie output for each decade being near
II double that Of the preceding one and If this
rate Cf increase were 70 continue unlnterruptecly
" might look for an exhaustion Of the bituminous
coal supply early in the twenty-hrst century
Arairst THIS. however, must be set number Of
o-,r-sract.rE Influences. Improvements in mining
methods are increasing the amount Of coal recov-
e-s7 and improved methods Of consumption are
Increasing us erLceaCy0 fuel. AS the more
accessible coal becomes exhausted and the deeper
and more expe1s.vely mined beds have 10 be
worked. The higher cost viii make necessary fur
the- increased economy in mining methods and
greater efHciency IN utilization.
The facts are that an estimate Of the bituminous
coal fields IN THIS country prepared with much
bv NJ Campbell shows that the total quantity -
coal stored r The ground was about 900 900 t5001o
short tons. From this supply there have beer cX-
s-e-r ACCORDING M Ia-krr'S figures q
close q 1906 about 5z5 10000 short tons and esti-
mating recovery Of IS % per cent-or. IN other
there Is lslf-ton lost-this represents an ex-
haustion Of nearly 7G1o.oI0.0o0 tons only about
o1e-ttri of Der cent OF the total supply. We
produced and consumed IN 1875 Gn round numhers)
S48G009 short IONS which represented, say 800 600
81 tols O. exhaustion or our practice IN this
gard Is improving with each year and less coal Is
i6s- = --a ron r.t-ei Than @a-rarly A. mis- "a
II 70 increase were TO he allowed for. the bitumi-
nous coal supply would last about 0po years TAX
ing into account, however the probable rate first,
of Increase and later, Of decrease In production.
1Ir. Campbell and Mr.. Parker are OF opinion that
the bulk 51 the cheapy mined bituminous coal VIII
be exhausted within 20 years, but when the period
Of decreasing production sets in the need for fuel
VII doubtless be supplied in considerable degree
fy me l----z2tl7n ot other forces Of nature thus
extending The life Of the biIUminOus coal fields.
50 tar as the anthracite region Of Pennsylvania
IS concerned predictions Of exhaustion have been
base mainly On estimates made by the Perusyl-
va-.l l5el-CE Etcal Survey, which shows that there
Wa-a originally in The ground about 1880 FeyN
mined one and a half tons were lost This would
T1ea0 that only 7@oc9ooj tons Of the original sup
Tlr were recoverable. To the close OF 1876 the pro-
cur-Ql has amounted 10 approximately L650op0 60
which would leave else GO eo3 still available.
and this ST the rate Of production in the last four
-e-- about G5955.oo1 tons year, would last about
-l-e-s years Later estimates made by William
Gr.e--l. OF Scranton. Penn placed the quantity of
I-ll-a.e coal n the ground the close of 1885 at
-sf- =" long tons Since then little over 6P1.-
HH i IONS have been mined. leaving, say $4,000
81" -nas available. which. At the rate Of s5.ofo."@
-7-- gees. would last about seventy years. But
against both oc tnese estimates must be set the
"a --e+ production viii not be maintained at the
Tra-s-- rate u-tl The coal is gone.
I-- annual anthracite production has about
re rcd ~ maximum. When Il does begin to de-
Cre#-a t5.e rate viii probably be slow Moreover,
r.. improved mining methods, and increased
ve.- not included IN tho available reserves when
t1e estimates We're prpared. IN addition 70 this,
the present practice is such that probably 70 per
cent IS now recovered instead OF 20 per cent under
-r= odd methods This saving alone would extend
Ire .lf- II the region oue-haf
The E-tlizs ton Of small sizes of anthracite for
stear5ug purposes. which has Increased rapidly
waste .r mining but Is making possible the
c0very q usable fuel from the great culm banks
that have stood as unsight-y monuments 10 the
Wss-e+uI methods of former years.
To what degree these factors VIII extend the life
q THE anthracite field Il Is possible 70 say.
bur the conditions now existing indicate danger
Of immediate exhaustion. A conservative state
nenr is that soon the annual production and con-
sumption of anthracite VIII decrease gradually 50
thai the supply viii probably last for 80 or 200
years