The Birmingham age-herald., 1907-05-18
OF BIRMINGHAM, ALI
COTTON

New York. May 17.-As l have pre- dieted, cotton again advanced today, and closes at the high price of the present movement, with quotations on the curb 1 to points higher. As a result of the impending reformation in the contract and methods of the New York Cotton Ex- change, public attention Is being again directed cottonward. and once the re forms, for which am fighting, have been realized, the New York Cotton Exchange will recover something of It's old time influence and importance.
 As a matter of fact, speculation in cotton is legitimately more attractive, and less hazardous. than almost any other form of mercantile venture, In which the public can engage My req sons for this statement are as follows:
 First, America has a practical monopoly of the worlds cotton production. Eighty five Ter cent of the cotton consumed throughout the world is produced in about 7S2 counties in thirteen southern states. The Egyptian and East Indian crops sup ply the remaining 10 per cent of the worlds consumption. The East Indian crop is consumed in the Orient in in- oreasing quantity. Is of inferior quail ity, and does not come Into practical competition with the American produc- tion. The Egyptian supply Is very small and Is used only for the manufacture of a special class of goods for which few mills are adapted
 Second, the statistics available in regard to stocks of cotton throughout the world. and in regard to the consumption of cotton throughout the world including the number of spindles fin operation, are readily obtainable.
 Third, cotton has more of the attributes of a legal tender. Is more readily avail able as banking collateral and more easily convertible than any other form of mer- chandise.
 Fourth, the market is world-wide; it's within certain limitation Is always secure and it Is. therefore practicable to trade in it in comparatively large quantities, with a minimum of risk
 For the above reasons, as compared with stocks and securities 1t seems to me that cotton is Infinitely more attractive as a speculation, provided the facts in regard to 1t can be obtained with any reasonable assurance of accuracy. In cotton there are no insiders as in the stock market, to sell valueless security to gullible outsiders at a price the equiv alent of robbery. It has the advantage of grain in that there is no substitute for it, and a shortage in the supply can only be compensated for by advance in price.
 There seems to be no question what ever as to the prospective shortage in the supply of cotton, which will be avail able. during the coming season. The worlds consumption will be, easily. 1S,- 500,000 bales. The first government re- port is to be issued on the 4th of June. next. The lowest condition ever report ed by the government on that date was in the year 1903 when, with a condition of "A 1, we produced crop of only 10,- 900 900 bales.
 From the advices which I am receiv- ing from the sou,h, a large number of which I reproduce herewith l regard 1t as exceedingly doubtful whether the con dtion, which the forthcoming govern ment report will show, will be much above 70. The average for the past fifteen years has been s4.9, and, as above stated, the lowest condition was TAI. If the government report is in the neighbor- hood of 70. I shall not be surprised to see cotton go to 13 or IA cents immediate ly, and stay there.
 I quote the following news received by wire and letter this morning:
 Memphis, Tenn, May 16.-Just returned from southwest; looks bad for crops all way around.
 Dallas. Tex, May 16.--Twenty- counties report 45 per cent to be replant- ed; condition under 50 per cent; weevil reported Temple to Red river: Europe cabling for confirmation damage; think signs big exporters short and nervous.
 New Orleans, La, May 16.-Just' trav- eled south and central Texas; crop month late minimum; very bad stand; plant yellow.
 Memphis. Tenn, May 16.-Condltlons around here worst ever known
 Greensboro, N. C., May 17.-Cold enough to cause wearing of overcoats today.
 New Orleans, La, May 1s-AdvIces