The San Francisco call., 1907-06-14
STOCKS, CROPS AND. TRADE
View of the Situation by Conservative,
Well Posted New York Banker


Well Posted New York Banker
In q circular letter Of very recent date
Henry Clews the New York hnaneier. says;
The very low prices at which many good
dividend payers selling should attract good
investment buying. il not more or less extensive
speculative purchases. But partly from lack Of
scarcity Of capital. there has been no large
demand for railroad securities. All fresn
supplies Of available capital during the iast
six mouths have been rapidly absorbed bY lnS
shprt-term railroad notes. As is wei
known. these issues have run UP into several
hundreds of millions, the high rate OF interest,"
which they offer and the unusual degree of
safety giving them preference over most other
Investments at time when more less doubt
has entered into the general situation.
WHEAT CORN AND COTTON
There Is an unusual degree Of uncertainty
regarding the next harvest. Ii does not appear.
however that the wheat crop, which last year
was valued al $3.50, 600. oo0. has been badly io-
CURED. Ihis important crop IS late, yer con
oitiou Is generally good, and the most reliable
reports seem 10 Indicate that with reasonably
fair weather during the balance Of the growing
season an average crop may be expected
There is really no reason at present for sntici-
pating any real scarcity Of wheat in the United
States or Canada. The shortage. if any, will
good foreign demand for our surplus reia-
lively high prices This insures profitable
wheat crop TO the American and Canadian
farmers and should check all present anxiety
on that account. With regard TO corn the
situation is somewhat different. Last year this
was valued at 81, ,l69 .000. 600. Planting has
been much delayed and many fields have had
~ be resown. Experience has proved how
ever, that corn can be sOwn late June 10
sud a good crop assured by September Is
Ger ordinary weather conditions 1t is thus
quite premature 10 be overanxiOus about the
last year was valued at 500, 600. 600 and is the
crop OF second Importance, is unQuestionably
IN an unss tisfaetory- if not preearious. condi-
iion The June government report gave The
condition at f0.5, compared with 10 year aver
age Of $50 per cent This is exceedingly
poor outlook, especially in view of the very
small increase and rhrea tens 4
probable reduction in the yield. While good
prices may somewhat compensate the farmer,
q real scarcity of cotton would be nothing
snort Of & calamity TO the textile interests Of
the United States and other parts of the world
since these Industries are almost entirelv de-
pendent upon the United States for their supply
now on might give Us fully an average crop.
The hay crop. which ranks next TO cotton, IS
n good condition Other grsins-oats and
harley-and the fruit crops are Of course back
ward, but their prospects have not been much
injured by the prevailing unfavorable weather
except in certain localities.
TRADE OUTLOOK
The above conditions hsye impaired q very
cautious feeling among business men for
the reason that any disaster 10 the crops would
unquestionsbiy cause very decided setback 10
business Some branches Of the retail dry goods
trade have suffered materially from the back
ward season. Moreover the feeling spreads
that business has reached the top notch and
that reaction Is inevitable. few Industries
Ike the iron ana cotton trades. are still enjoy
ing great activity. but outside OF these there
IS eFloence tnat reaction has begun. At the
same time ii is altogether TOO soon 10 take
oiscouraging views Of the crop situation espe-
clelly as our farmers are sure Of securing very
pr'ntaole prices II Is quite reasonable 10 an
ticipate more sessonable weather after fully two
months Of abnormal conditions. and should we
escape early tosts there is reason yet why
we should not be favored with an average
yield OF al the great staples. except possibly
n me case OF cotton, which up 70 date has
tursl product