Los Angeles herald., 1907-07-27
LUMBER SURE
TO ADVANCE
PRICES STRIKE BOTTOM AND
REBOUND
DEALERS LOOK FOR A SHARP
INCREASE
AbnormaIIy Large Supply on Hand
Owing to Conditions at San Franz
cisco, Given as Cause for
Stagnatlon

Local lumbermen are authority for the
statement that Los Angeles has now con-
sumed practically all of the excess lum-
Der sent here from San Francisco and
the north and that lumber may be ex-
pected to advance sharply in price within
a short time.
They say the trade is about to issue
from the doldrums in which it has been
foundering for the past six months.
f1oundering not because the local demand
has been less brisk than usual, but be-
cause the supply has been abnormally
large.
Two causes have united to glut the Los
Angeles summer market. First, the situ-
alton at San Francisco, and second, the
car shortage which has made it well nigh
impossible for coast mills to ship their
product east.
Today the car situation is improved
and San Francisco is doing alittle better.
AS a result receipts are not so large as
they were.
There is less lumber to be digested by
the local market, and consequently re-
turn to normal prices may be expected
in the immediate future.
shows Great heouctlon
Curiously enough, the prevailing low
price of lumber, as was pointed out by
the manager of a big local firm yester-
day, has not resulted in any marked IN
crease in building operations.
Last year lumber was high" he said.
soThen though the demand continued
about steady, the supply suddenly IN"
creased and lumber began to go down.
Today ordinary stock is from IS to $40 per
nCrnH
while lumber for interior finishing ranges
around $40 now and was $50 at this time
last year.
Naturally we expected the demand to
increase under the stimulus of these re-
ductions, but the increase was so slight
as to be barely noticeable. Apparently
builders do not realize that the era of low
prices is about over. They are waiting
for a still further fall in price, which will
never come.
To-day it is impossible to say what
lumber is worth in this market. The last
cargo l received stood me $3.50 for freight
and about $40 for stumpage. Considerable
lumber that has been brought In here mas
been sold at an actual loss The big
firms have been the heaviest losers, be-
cause they buy in advance of their needs.
l know of one firm that has lost $4,000 in
, this way. They received a lot of lumber
ordered five or six months ago and which
now can't be sold for the price they paid
for it,
Prices Sure to Rise
There has been no established price.
Lumber has been worth just what the
seller could get for it and there has been
much cutting. Recently 1 made a three
weeks trip through the lumber district
and found many of the smaller mills idle.
They have been compelled to shut down
because they couldn't make expenses.
'Many people seem to think the Cart
wright law has been responsible for this
condition. That is an error. The law had
nothing whatever to do with it. The
causes are, as l stated, first the inability
of mills to ship their surplus output east,
and second the large falling off in the
San Francisco demand resulting in the
flooding of this market with lumber stocks
that could not be disposed of at any
price elsewhere"
d. l. Nofziger of the Nofziger Lumber
company expressed a similar opinion.
He too believes that prices are certain
to rise within a few days or weeks at the
most. Mr.. Nofziger, however. lays prac-
tically the entire blame for the present
situation upon San Francisco.
Now Is the Time to Buy
During last fall and early winter" he
said, San Francisco shipments were very
heavy The lumber accumulated at the
docks. Then the rains came and it was
practically impossible to handle it, be-
cause the deep mud prevented teaming.
When winter passed and spring arrived
labor troubles made their appearance
Building was at a standstill and dealers
found themselves in a position where they
had to get at least part of their money
out to meet current obligations.
Prices went down and down. At San
francisco much lumber was reloaded and
shipped to Los Angeles. This was all in
excess of our normal supply. The market
became glutted and prices here also took
a tumble. Today they are from $5 to 81
less a thousand than they were before
the San Francisco market went to pieces