The Salt Lake herald. [volume] (Salt Lake City [Utah]) 1870-1909, 1907-03-26
EARTHQUAKE LORE.
Are Earthquakes to Be Expected at
Certain Intervals?

Except as matter of curious inter-
est 1t is hard TO see what is to be
9ained by the Investigations of the
FEDERAL department of commerce and
labor into the suppositiOus horizontal
displacement of the earth's crust on
the Pacific coast as the result of the
San Francisco earthquake.
1t Is not at all likely, says the Chi
caso Chronicle, that the Department.
researches viii result I'm disclosing the
cause of the recent disturbance. IL is
certain that no investigation, no mat
ter how thorough and minute, will re-
SUIT In preventing future earthquakes
In the end people who live i'm an earth
quake belt can have no other comfort
than that which is to be derived from
the doctrine of pToba bilities coupled
with the law of averages.
Ihey may thus argue hat, judging
the future by the past. disastrous
earthquake is to be expected at GER
tain intervals. If it fails TO occur at the
time when it Is due the probability of
its occurrence Increases in geome tricaI
progression until il actually does oc-
cur. Thus prudent people would be jus
titled in shifting their quarters from a
region where an earthquake is over
due just as they would have reason
able excuse for remaining in such a
district during the period of proba pie
immunity.
1t is undoubtedly this latter consider
alton which influences the people who
are rebuilding San Francisco. They fig
uTe that according TO precedent and
probability, fifty years should elapSe
before the next destructive quake in
that region. They're building upon that
theory and they are willing that the
generation which follows shall take its
own precautiOn or get into trouble by
failing to do so. That is human nature
of course, the doctrine of probabiIi-
ties is not an infallible guide. Things
that figure out perfectly in theory have
a disagreeable fashion of failing in
practice and usually at the most incOn-
venient iuncture.
Thus it is not impossible that instead
of being half a century distant ;he next
San Francisco upheaval may come EeXt
year-Or next month or next week
Professor OmOri. the japanese seismi-
cal expert. has devised geometriC
and algebraic formula by which Civ
en- the direction, time and duration of
an earthquake shock. he undertakes to-
forecast the approximate date of the
next one-"with occasional exceptions.
Mark the pregnant reservation. for II
demolishes the entire theory so far IS
practical value is concerned II san
Francisco, for instance. should be thei
victim of one Of these occasional eX-
ceptions'' within the next few years.
the people Of that city would take
small comfort from Professor Omori s
assurance that the formula works in a
majority of cases.
1t is true. however, that the law If
averages or the maturity of the chan
ces or the scheme of probability as
based upon precedent constitutes he
only foundation on which the denizen
of an earthquake district can rest his
hopes and enterprises. In great ma
iority of cases he will come out ell
right But when he encounters one OF
Professor Omori's exceptions. he must
realize that mathematical science stops
short of some things, and predicting the
future is one Of those things.
As for the Investigations of the de-
partment of commerce and labor, they
are certain to be Interesting and III
structive. They will not keep away
earthquakes, however, nor viii they
even enlighten US greatly respecting
phenomena which are. from their ~
nature. incapable of more than thel
most inconsiderable calculation.