The Washington herald., 1907-05-04
WALL STREET NOTES
Bulls and Bears Discount
Bad Crop Reports.
UNION PACIFIC MYsTIFIEs

UNION PACIFIC MYSTIFIEs
Traders Unable to Figure Out
whether Insiders Are Buyers or
seIIers-OperatiOns skiIIfuIIy Con-
Quoted - Southern Pacific State
meRt-BuII Tips on b. & o. Shares.
New York. May SIT was not so much
the actual weather conditions as the pre-
diction of a killing frost that sent wheat
prices up and stock quotations down tn
day. In other words. both the bulls on
wheat features and the bears on stocks
seemed. to have reached the conclusion
that the actual damage had been dis
counted and that their further operations
must be based on the possibility Of still
greater deterioration. The change was
significant Il meant that price move
ments. instead Of being made 10 bring the
quotations for wheat and securities to a
basis cOnfOrmabie TO existing conditions,
were TO be made on the prospects of ihe
fulhllment Of a prediction IN regard to
the weather for the next twenty
hours in a very fckle season.
Every transaction on the bull side OF
wheat or on the bear side of the stock
market on the prospect OF killing frost
was d mere gambling transaction, and the
vehemence with which the Chicago grain
houses expressed predictions of wholesale
destruction of the winter crops was sudi-
cient to arouse a suspicion that they
might have wheat TO sell If the market
kept strong enough to afford an opportn-
ity for realizing.
one Of the stubborn facts the bulls on
stocks had 10 contend with was that the
Ohio State crop report gave the condition
of winter wheat in that State on May as
only "a, compared with s. on April !, and
l03 on May ! last year This almost car
ried the conviction that serious crop dam
age is now a condition and not theory.
But there was a curious discrepancy be-
tween the April report OF the State ana
that OF the government, al the same
period.
While the State gave a condition Of 81
April ], the Department of Agriculture
made the condition on the same dag only
S3. The government estimates are always
considered more reliable than those Of the
individual states, and II the government
figures were right last month, the Ohio
State figures must have been wrong. They
may be wrong again now, possibly erring
as much on the side OF insuhiciency as
they may have erred on the other in ex-
cess before. Other State reports may
come along soon that will indicate even
greater depreciation in the past month
than has been indicated in the Ohio re-
turn but until the government figures
are issued on May 10, It will be unsafe 70
form definite conclusions as 20 the extent
Of damage from the unseasonabiy cold
weather and other causes.
Nov you see and nav you don't" and
uncertainty as 10 which thimb!e the pea
was under was never greater than the
uncertainty as 10 whether the insiders
We're distributing or accommodating Union
Pacific around 80 Both sides seem 10
have been favored on alternate days. on
Tuesday, operators who had for some
time been conspicuous in the stock were
heavy buyers. The next day they sold.
only 10 buy their stock hack again on
Thursday, and to-day they sold again.
Perhaps some Of the traders were able
~ f+1 stF RatN " iiFAAtFA tttF AasrAAtEa were
buyers or sellers on balance over the
period. but If 50. they must have been
pretty smart.
whatever the operation was It was very
skiilfuily conducted. and the linton Pa
eitic movement remains as much Of
mystery to-day as il was before a dozen
different explanations were put out 10
account for it,
The statement for June about met ex-
pectauons, more than fulnIllng the predic-
tons Of "a - per cent increase in gross,
while on the other hand, the Increase in
operating expenses was so large as to
leave The gain in net Of comparatively
small proportions.
If the selling of Union Pacific was as
good as it seemed TO be, and there was no
short interest of any consequence TO be
covered, IL WAS a very interesting question
how 10 account for the hrmness. not TO
say real strength Of the stock. Ii is
many day since there has been a move-
ment in the market. at all events on the
side Of advancing prices, that has kept
the traders so busy guessing as this one.
and they will probably have 70 guess
more before they guess right.
In one respect the March statement Of
the Southern Pacific system was very
gratifying. The gross returns were much
larger than had been expected by those
who knew of the difficulties encountered
by the road on account OF flood In the
latter half Of the month. That the oper-
ating expenses would be increased on
account of these difficulties and the ueces-
sity of including in that item a substan-
tial part OF the cost of repairs necessi-
tatCd by washOuts and damage of other
kinds. was foregone conclusion, and that
the company came through the month
with a loss Of only abou. half q million
in net earnings as compared with the re-
suits for March, last year. under the cir
could not be regarded other
wise than with satisfaction.
or course. it may be that much of the
cost of repairing food damages will be
prorated over the remaining months Of
the fiscal year, and that for this reason
apart. May and June viii not show up as
favorably rs would otherwise have been
the case. but there can be no doubt
whatever that the entire results viii be
greatly in excess OF those for the twelve
months covered IN the last annual report
When the stock exchange opened for
business almost every trader had a bull
tip on Baltimore and Ohio-a fact which
showed that the tipster was down early
and performed his work thoroughly TO
d moderate extent, the tip made good
but the rise aroused no enthusiasm and,
indeed, not a little skepticism was ex-
pressed as to whether the stock possessed
the qualities TO make il a market leader
For months past Baltimore and Ohio
has proved a disappointment 10 almost
every trader who has attempted to Go
anything in It on the bull side and until
II displays a complete change of form,
II can hardly become the recinienf OF anv