Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1907-02-18
BULLS AND BEARS
Special Dispatch to The Star.

Special Dispatch to The Star.
NEW YORK. February 1s-There was
little or no change this morning In the sem
timent regarding the stock market on the
part of the most active operators. No one
seemed to be predicting big bull market
during the spring. but the prevailing opin-
Ion was that there would We a very fair
trading market from this time on until
the demand for money from the western
centers would make 1t impossible to finance
an active speculation In stocks. There was
q wide difference Of opinion as to whether
the general business of the country would
fall of materially this year and next as
result Of slowing down on the part OF
the railroads and other large corporations
in the matter Of new construction aud BY
reason of the fact that 1908 would be
presidential year.
-
One large operator, In discussing this
question. expressed the opinion that for
some time the demand upon the producing
facilities Of the country have been fully 80
per cent In excess Of its normal output.
In other words. he said. he thought the
situation could be clearly outlined by as
Stunning that the producing capacity Of the
country is 100 per cent and that the de-
mand for many months had been fully $50
per cent. II the railroads cut down their
new work materially and II business slack
ems by reason of uncertainty as to the out
come Of the presidential election. he be-
lieved that the total falling in business will
/ not be more than the surplus 50 per cent.
Consequently, he thought that no one need
to look for anything in the way of a gen.
eral business depression during the next
few years.
Other interests which are studying the
situation closely believe that by reason of
the tremendous activity In all lines Of busi-
ness during the last three or four years and
the great speculation in real estate in the
last two years, we are soon to see the be-
ginning Of period that will extend over
eighteen months or two years. In which
business will fall of materially.
Some observers who are Of this general
opinion go SO far as to say that business
with slacken to practically the same extent
to which it has expanded during the last
three years.
In view of the widely differing opinion on
this question, operators in the stock mar
ket are inclined to be conservative ga ana a. to
to load up with large lines Of stock. as they
have been accustomed to in previous years.
In spite Of the reassuring statements that
have been made with respect to the forth
coming interstate commerce hearing on the
Hartman lines, some spectators are ap-
prehensive that disclosures will be made
which will adversely affect the stock mar
ket temporarily.
Brokers familiar with the affairs Of the
United States Steel Corporation claim that,
inasmuch as IS per cent Of the total ca
pacity Of the subsidiary companies was sold
out at the beginning Of the year. the d.
rectors will be justified in increasing the
dividend in April. On the other hand. some
conservative interests say that If the rail-
roads carry out their retrenchment policy
and If business falls OF during 1908, as it
always has done during presidential year,
the only safe policy for the Steel directors
to pursue will be to keep the dividend on
| the common stock at 2 per cent year.
~
representative of a Boston stock ex-
change house who Is in town this morning
says that the activity in the copper stocks
in Boston has kept the rates for time
money above the average charged by New
York bankers for that class Of loans. He
Is of the opinion that New York cannot
look to any of the interior cities for material
relief in the money market as apparently
the full capacity of the banks at those
centers will be taxed to supply the local