The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1907-07-17
m CENTRAL

TO understand the present ltuatlon In ZEN
trail America as IL Is to predict the future.
From the Costa Ricanb boundary on the south
TO the Mexican boundary on the north all
lie confusion and uncertainty. Guatemala
is a military encampment. with her pro-
ducers drawn from their industries, and yet
there is no one to fight. Mexico threatens
no invasion; there is no menace from Sal
vador, and Honduras in in no condition for
war with any one. Salvador wants peace
with her neighbors, and Honduras has just
been whipped by Nicaragua. Yet all is tur-
mol and no one seems to know what a day
may bring forth.
Nicaragua Ia undoubtedly the immediate
disturbing factor. Two views are taken OF
her attitude. One Of these. Zelaya's ambi-
ton to control a united Republic OF Central
America, has already been defined in THE
Sun. The other. of more recent appearance.
holds that Zelaya's aggressive attitude il
really defensive, arising from a fear that
II he does not whip his neighbors he will he
whipped by them. IL In claimed by some
hat he In acting aggressively to forestall
and prevent the necessity Of defending his
own borders. Be this as il may. there is
every probability that II MIR. Zelays could
give some positive assurance of his sbsn-
donment OF any scheme for unifcation
under his leadership and SOME pledge of
non-interferepoe in the affairs Of his neigh
bors Central America would settle down
and 60 to work again.
Another disturbing factor is the group Of
political exiles and refugees from all the
Central American States. Their headquar-
ters is in Mexico city. although there are a
good many Of the same class scattered
through the United States. Among these
gentlemen are men of some wealth. while
the property Of others has e confiscated
by their offended home Governments.
Some we're exiled by official command be-
cause Of political offences. while others left
their homes in fear Of what might happen
IL they sta yed in their own country. How
far all OF any Of them are in alliance with
Mr.. Zelaya IL lie impossible to say. II Is
possible. though perhaps not probable,
that there In a definite understanding. but
IL is far more probable that no definite CO.
operation exists and that each OF the move
ments for uni1cation. the Zelays scheme
and the scheme Of the ~emiorddos. hopes TO
find in a readtustment Of Central American
conditions the opportunity for the graft
ication of personal ambitions OF the reali-
zation of personal desires. The emiorddos
give their time and attention 10 a long dis
lance fermentation Of revolts In their re-
spective countries and have taken up the
unification plan a. q possible avenue TO the
attainment Of their individual purposes.
To the unbiased observer Mr.. Zelaya's
course seems only suicidal. His peaceful
election to the Presidency of a united Cen
trail America IL only less possible than would
be his peaceful administration after an
election. Both peaceful election and peace
full administration are utterly out Of the
question. Meanwhile. whether his present
course is aggressive or defensive. he is
surely preparing his own downfall. What
he is doing costs money, much money.
Reliable information comes to the effect
that he is levying heavily or his people and
issuing large amount Of paper money.
That In an old game. many times played in
that region. and always ending in disaster.
II is a CUR with a heavy kick and Mr..
ZeIsyaIs experience with he weapon will
surely be like that Of all others who have
tried TO use IL.
The Offices Of the United States can be.
and we believe they have been. exercised
so far as Costa Rica is concerned. That
country has shown every disposition and
intention to keep out Of the tangles of the
region, and we understand that Mr.. Zelsya
has received a diplomatic intimation
that the United States would not regard
with indifference any disturbance in the
affairs of q country which lies 80 near TO
our activities in the Canal Zone. A similar
| intimation regarding his attitude toward
his neighbors on the other side would pre-
sent different features and would require
justification on other and less substantial
grounds. The uselessness, the wasteful-
ness and the folly Of the present situation,
and the impending menace Of a struggle
costly in money and in human life and hope
less Of beneficial results. excites a DISPOSE
ton to urge the issuance of an ultimatum
TO all concerned that this country will not
tolerate any such disturbance in its vicinity.
Yet such a course is not to be urged lightly
or to be undertaken except by the general
approval Of the little nations involved.
Provision for some such policy was fairly
made by the San jose treaty Of September
rs, 1906, and by the Amapala treaty of April
IS, 1907. To both Of these the United States
was. incidentally at least, a party. The
Amapala treaty bears the signature Of
Philip Brown. American Charge d'Affaires.
Nicaragua was not signatory to the San
jose treaty, but Article III. OF that instru-
ment declares hat Salvador. Guatemala
and Honduras agree that the President Of
the United States and the President of
Mexico shall act as umpires. .to whom all
particular differences arising among said
Governments shall be submitted for arbi-
tration." The expression is shall be-" The
Amapala treaty, signed by Salvador and
| Nicaragua. and fiagrantly violated by
Nicaragua almost before its ink was dry,
provides for a oonvocation OF representa-
| tives OF the five sister republics. with full
powers TO conclude a general treaty OF
peace and smity. having compulsory arbi-
tration for its fundamental basis" &c.
Article III. provides that pending this con-
vocation and the execution OF such a treaty
any controversy that may arise shall be
settled by means OF compulsory arbitration
applied by the joint action Of the Presidents
OF the United States and Mexico, who shall
have full power to appoint an umpire. whose
award shall be fnal.'
While not entirely free from snags the
wav would thus seem fairly open for some