New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1906-01-06
ERAncn-GERNAN VIE TALK.

Tall IF serious complications over the Mo
! rocco settlement continues, and certain degree
IF disouiet II not of anxiety, seems 10 prevail
even in some usually conservative quarters
There is doubtless much irritation between
France and Germany, but that does not neces-
sariIy mean there is danger or war. 80 1ar as
the world knows there is nothing in the dispute
which cannot be honorably settled without wal.
In such case then there should be no war, Wild
out either opportunity or desire, or both on one
or both sides; and those elements seem to be
lacking on both sides. For ten years the Dur
den of prophecy has been that France and Rus
sia allies would at the opportune moment
crush Germany between them. But RUSSIA Is,
end is certain to be for some time to come,
quite incapacitated for any war save 1or Ine
sunDression Of domestic revolt. so II france
should now GO to war with Germany she
woud be doing so at the very time Wnen her
aIly was most unable TO help her. either on
land or sea, and when after decade OF TAI
leged( dual plotting for concerted action, she
would have to act entirely alone
Again another somewhat more recent but
similar argument has been that the Untonist
government in Great Britain, with its note
worthy Impeachment with France, was anti
German, and was melting France 10 war with
that emptre Just that has been said in Ger
many it has been said by political pardsans
In Great Britain and 1t has been rather shrllly
proclaimed from the housetops here by those
who are much more European than Europeans
themselves Yet now that (reputedly) anti
German government in Great Britain has gone
ont and a new government has come in which
onenIv declares q closer friendship with Ger
many to be one Of its cardinal policies. So in
going to war with Germany now France would
be doing so at a time when she could not count
upon even the moral support of her friend
across the Channel. Really, Opportunism in
France (where the name, if not the thing itself
had its rise) would be going by cOntraries If
the present were selected as an suspicious time
for war!
1t will not Of course, escape notice that these
very circumstances, which would make war in
opportune for France might from one point of
view make it opportune for Germany. That
empire might think 1t well to strike now, while
France is deprived of the support Of her ally at
the north. But on the other hand Germany
knows that war, no matter what It's final out
come, would be not only inopportune and incon-
venient but for a considerable time actually
rIIinous TO those commercial and colonial inter
ests which she has IN late years enormously
extended and which so vital a feature of her
imperial existence. Her commercial marine on
the high seas is twice as great as Frances, and
is the second largest in the world She would
not sacrifice nor imperil 1t without most urgent
cause On the whole then, the time would not
seem to afford advantageous opportunities for
war to either Of those powers TO inspire either
with belligerent desires. And in the absence of
belligerent desires on either side the Moroccan
incident could scarcely be exaggerated or inflated
into an adequate cause Of war. Moreover, it
should be realized that with affairs in so crit
zeal a state in Russia and In SO unsettled
state in Austria and Hungary all Europe may
Justly be reckoned to be at this time particu-
larry aVerse to war. That is not, perhaps, to