The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1906-10-16
GEN. GROSVENOR PREDICTS
Tha the Republicans Will Have at Least
so Majority in the Next House.

WASHINGTON, Oct. 15.-Following his BIZ
ennial custom, Gen. Charles r. Grosvenor,
Representative in Congress from Ohio and
statistician and mathematician Of the
Republican party, gave out a statement
tonight containing his estimate of the
political composition of the next Hous
OF Representatives. He says that the
Republicans will have a good majority, at
least of 80 and perhaps as great as 50.
Il suppose l might as well continue my
guessing, as people call it," he said, for 1
noticed last year, when 1 failed to make
any suggestion in regard to the situation
in Ohio, il was at once said that my silence
indicated that l had little faith in Repub-
lican success. The fact was l indicated my
estimates last year TO a number of gentle
men connected with the party organiza-
ton in Ohio and predicted that Gov. Her
rick would be beaten by $1,000. l was in
error to the extent Of 1000 or so about thai
but there WA good reason why I should not
give out any public estimate in advance Of
the election.
lit is a little early now to fix the status
of the next House Of Representatives, but
it is very certain that the Republicans
will have a good working majority. AS to
that there can be no doubt. l have in my
hand a list OF forty-one districts which
we're carried by the Democrats in the Fifth
eighth Congress and by the Republicans
in the Fifty-ninth Congress. Their loca-
tons are as follows: California, 8; Della
ware, 1; Illinois, 7; Indiana, 2; Iowa, l; Ken
lucky, /; Massachusetts,, 1; Michigan, 1;
Minnesota, !; Missouri, s; Nebraska, /;
New Jersey, 2; New York, o; North Caro-
lima, o; Ohio, 3; Pennsylvania, 3. Total, Il.
zone change was added by a contest in
Missouri, which made AZ. In the present
House we have ia Republican majority:
Assuming the Democrats will carry all
these A. districts, they will gain 81 votes,
leaving a majority OF 80 for the Republicans,
assuming the Republicans carry every dis
trict his year they carried two years ago.
Neither Of these results 10 likely to follow.
That would be most unheard Of.
-In looking over these forty-two districts
l think it IL fair to say the Republicans
will carry ten OF them this year. l could
select them, but that would be going too
much into detail. Take ten from forty-two
and you have thirty-two, and that makes
a change of sixty-four and leaves fifty
majority. l have not allowed the Re-
publicans to carry any district they did
not carry in 19O-and It may we'll he said
II is not likely they will carry very many
but il IL fair to say they are as likely to
carry some districts that they lost in 1870;
as that the Democrats will regain more than
thirty-two Of the districts they lost.
Here appears a great majority Of fifty
How is the Democratic party to overcome
! that2 Where can the basis be found for
a Judgment Of that character2 / am quite
aware the enthusiasm OF the party about
the close OF the last session was equal TO
a result az great as that, but there is no
| such talk among Democrats to-day.
The coming OF Bryan and the course
he took, the new issue that he has injected
into the campaign, the nomination OF Hearst
and the shudder that has passed over the
Democratic party from ocean to ocean
as a result have more than Offset all enthu-
siasm and hopefulness that the party had
four months ago.
There il nothing sure in American
politics | admit that but the surest thing
In American politics to-day that has hap
pened within a yea Is the certainty that
Uncle Joe will be Speaker Of the House oi
Representatives for another term, with q
| good working Roosevelt supporting, stand
pat majority right behind him.