Deseret evening news. [volume] (Great Salt Lake City [Utah]) 1867-1920, 1906-10-01
THE FINANCIAL OUTLOOK.

A contributor TO the current num-
Der Of Moody's Magazine discusses the
question whether a financial crisis Is
impending and while he does not pre-
sumo to answer the question In the
affirmative the comparisons he draws
between present industrial conditions
and those prevalent at the time of for
mer financial depressions, suggest that
he believes that a crisis is at the door
MANY things, he says, ''in our present
situation cannot but be regarded serious
~, and they induce the feeling that ex-
cesses viii bear the inevitable fruition."
The writer argues that every imam
cial depression is IN measure peculiar
TO itself and has its specific contribu-
tive causes, but that some are common
to ALL For this reason there are some
preceding indications These are:
II. An increase In prices. first, OF
special commodities, then, In less de-
gree, of commodities generally, and lat
err of real estate both improved and I'M
improved.
90 Increased activity OF establish
ed enterprises, and the formation OF
many new ones. especially OF those
which provide for Increased production
or improved methods, such as factories
and furnaces, railways and ships, all
requiring the change OF circulating to
fixed capital
49, An active demand for loans at a
slightly higher rate OF interest.
- The general employment OF labor
at increasing or well sustained wages.
"5. Increasing extravaganza in pri-
vate and public expenditure.
&c, The development of a mania for
speculation, attended by dishonest
methods in business and the gulllbility
Of many investors.
~ A great expansion of discounts
and loans. and u resulting rise in the
rate of Interest, also a material in
crease In wages. attended by frequent
strikes ana by dificulty IN obtaining a
sufficient number of laborers TO meet
the demand
These are said to be general indica-
tons Of approaching hard times, .
Many Of them, TO be sure. are lndlca-
tons Of prosperity, but they are pre-
cursors OF disaster, Il Is said I'm the
case Of oyeraotion' The writer goes on
to show what the present conditions
are. lie draws parallels between the
disaster OF lSTl-the Chicago fire-and
the calamity Of this year IN California.
Railroad building figures are given,
showing the enormous absorption OF
capital, 1T is a fact" we are told that
railway building reaches its maximum
almost always a comparatively short
time previous TO the beginning OF Pc
riod OF depression" Then statistics are
quoted to prove that record figures for
labor, its employment and remunera-
tion. are not suggestive Of unlimited
prosperity but Of the elimination there
OF. on this point the author says:
In 1864 the percentage employed
was eT4i, in 1865, percentage was 81 90,
IN 1866 percentage was $500 and Ia
1857, percentage employed was 1856.
Again the percentage employed In 1891
was g25. In 1892 II was 90 and in 1891
IL was 92.S. Take Massachusetts in
1891. the percentage employed was 9909.
1t was 1885 in 1892 and sl.45 in 1898, No
general comparison OF the total num-
Der employed Is readily available for
New York, but the percentage OF union
wage earners Idle in tho frst quarter
OF this year. compared with the corre-
spending period IN previous years, Is
worth noting For the first quarter OF
1905 the percentage Idle was Sc per
cent. 1t was 81 per cent. In 1905. ll6
per cont IN 1904, 5.5 per cent. In 1908, So
per cent. in 1902. il,3 In 1901. and 1911
per cent IN 1900. The percentage OF
unemployed in the year 1897 was 2LS