The Chanute times. [volume] (Chanute, Kan.) 1897-1913, 1906-05-04
is PROSPERITY TAGGING?

ity is going to continue before the
inevitable setback in this country.
We have now had about nine years
of uncommonly good time, due un-
doubleday to two or three main
causes-uneXamplyd crops, which
are chief of all causes, the establish
ment of the financial system on a
safe basis, and favorable foreign
conditions. Among the latter are
two wars, which temporarily stimu
lated trade.
Will the San Francisco disaster,
causing the greatest single loss by
fire ever recorded in our history,
effect the times materially? 1t will
caYse disturbance to some extent
That is, it will convert perhaps
hundred million dollars and posi-
bly, more from capital used in in
dustry into fixed capital, buildings.
And it will do this suddenly and
arbitrarily, wherever it can 6nd the
available capital, largely in insur
ance funds now invested in bonds
and stocks. On the other hand, 1t
will stimulate the steel industry,
which is one of the greatest baro-
meters of trade, because San Fran
Cisco will IN all likelihood be re
built mainly of steel.
Somebody has called statistics
"the anatomy of nation, but
with all the progress of political
economy, the anatomy of CONNER
cialism is not yet very well under
stood. 1t is impossible to predict
a business depression, even when we
are on the very verge of it. These
things always come when least
looked for. Afterwards, economists
? exhibit their scientific hindsight by
proving from the facts preceding
the depression that it was bound to
come at the moment when it actu-
ally arrived, But they were unable
to prove the thing in advance, which
is unfortunate.
Some of the symptoms of APP
preaching depressions ought by this
Spe to be diagnosed, and in fact
a he or tive are. One symptom is
;, real estate speculation, and this is
due to the ascertalned fact that in a
prosperous period, prosperity al
ways producing speculation. the
last thing to feel the effect of rising
prices and come into active demand
is lard. There are good reasons
for this being so. One of these
reasons is because land is a per-
manent investmen and men do not
go IN for it in very extensive way
until :hey have made their pile,
more or less, in other ventures. But
land speculation comes after specu
iation has covered every other field.
and when profits begin to drop off
in other investment lines.
There are signs of a real estate
boom in the country now, adyanc-
ing prices of land and lots being re-
ported in many directions. Does
Ahis mean that the period of pros
pAy is drawing towards close?
Are men turning to real estate in
vestments because OF diminishing
returns in other lines of investment
If SO, prosperity is on the wane
and a crop failure or so would bring
it to an end.
The. scientists have not issued
any warnings to keep close to shore,
but prosperous times can not 60 on
indefinitely and at present the credit
of the country is enormously ex-
tended, as the prodigious prices of
stocks show. No time is bad
time for men to be on the lookout
for the first signs of coming trouble,
but the flag end of period of great
and prolonged prosperity is the best
time of all to be on guard.-Topeka
Capital.