The Montgomery advertiser., 1906-01-19
CROPS
THE KEEP COMMISSION RENDERS
 A REPORT.

|
 Thinks That Present sysfem of Cem- putting Yield of Cotton Wouid Be Dffzeuit to rm-
 prove.
 washin<ton, Jan. fs.--Charles Hall lam Keep. assistant secretary of the treasury and chairman of the so-called Keep commission on department metn- ods has submitted to the President It's commissions report of its investiga- tion of the methods employed by the bureau of statistics of the department of agriculture in estimating crops and | especially the cotton crop.
 Tn referring this matter to the Keep commission the President called par Iticular attention to resolution which | in September last was adopted by the New England cotton manufacturers as- sociations bringing into serious ques- | ton the reliability of the government crop reports and asking that the mat ter be investigated by a competent commission. The report Of the conn mission describes in detail the meShod followed by the bureau of statistics m making it's crop estimates Of acreage condition and yield. For the cotton crop alone the bureau of statistics nas upon it's list of correspondents nearly | S5 900 persons classified as follows: l Trayeiing agents. three; State agents land their ub-correspondents. s4.ooo county correspondents. 800; township correspondents, 12.o0o; individuei Iarn- Iers. 32,0OO; special correspondents, le,-
 000
 The report refers to the safeguards to prevent leaks, which have been ini- lproved on and materially changed since fthe cotton leak of last July ana since the establishment of the new board of crop estimates organized py Assis- Y . xF0 N-
 Difficult to Improve.
 The commission says that It IS ar ficuit to see how the system now m force can be improved upon m tnis respect and it has no suggestion to offer.
 The report describes ia detail the final process in the making Of q crop estimate. The four members Of the crop estimating board meet in closed l room and to them are brought the re- rorts of the travelling agents and state 1 agents which have been kept sealed and deposited in the safe of the sec-
 retary of agriculture. Each or the Ious members of the crop estimating board with the percentage figures given py each class of correspondents for each state exercises his own Judgment sep larately and without, consultation with his associates and adopt a crop conoi- ton figuring for each State, express T Ithe hoard differs materially on any lstate from the other three members, he | is called on for his reasons and the IboArd as a whole. presided over by tne assistant secretary of agriculture then adopts. after discussion, figure TOT | each State. - | inc figures thus reached are not the result of a mathematical computation but is reached by "the exercise of judg- | ment."
 The report says tisht great stress has i been laid in the past on the num0er oi Important sources from which the su- | reau of Statistics has obtained It's in- l formation. In the Judgment or the 1 committee 1t does not add authority to inc estimates on the cotton crop by the l hureau to state that Information mas heen sought from s5,000- different per- l sons The information principally re- He'd on Is contained in the reports or the traveling field agents and state agents. If these two sources or inior- nation agree little attention is paid 10 divergent opinions on the part or the other correspondents.
 Under and over Estimates,
 The report says that in every in- stance except in the case of three cot ton reports in the last six years, the Bureau of Statistics estimates nave been under estimates. In the case or cotton although the Bureau of Sta tistica has under estimated the crop in every instance, If judged by US re- ports expressed in number Of bales, nevertheless if the bales are reduced to pounds of lint cotton, 1t appears that out of the six last reports on cotton yield. the Bureau of Statistics has over estimated the crop in three cases ana under estimated in three cases
 ,af 4nf fr tions looking to improvement or the service. It recommends that in the case of cotton the percentage nSure or condition be converted into bales or indicated weight by a well-known com mercial formula. 1t recommends me transfer of tn determination or the cotton acreage planted from the Bureau of statistics to the Bureau of Census.
 A large diminution in the number of the eorrespondents of the bureau ls also recommended. The committee urges that no further returns on cotton be asked for from township correspond ents, individual farmers and ginners' and that the money thus saved pc uth- ized in improving the State organiza- tions. The State agents salaries should be increased, and they should be al- lowed travelling expenses so as 10 se- Iect their ub-correspondents by per sonal contact, instead of by system, of letters.
 should Be Inspected.
 The State agents should be inspected by an inspector from the Washington office so that the methods of doing tne work can be carefully observed. The number of travelling field agents or the department should be sufficient to cover every part of their territory each l month. An important recommendation | of the report Is that the Bureau or Statistics in the case of cotton conhne it's work to it's monthly reports ex- pressing the condition of the growing crop during the growing season.
 Not only should the acreage planted be determined by the Census Bureau by a process of enumeration but the ginning statistics of the census shouid be the only Government reports on yields of cotton. The Bureau Of sta tistics now puts out it's report on cot ton yield about the 3rd of December. By December 20 the ginning statistics cover 90 per cent. of the crop and more accurate estimate of the total crop can be made from these figures | than from the estimates of the Bureau.
 Discussing the ginning statistics of the Census Bureau the committee says | that the early reports of ginning cove
 nf fha rFOn a to |