Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1906-10-14
NOT SAFE TO PRoPHESY.
Patience Concerning the Issue in Rus
STA is Counseled by Events.

STA is Counseled by Events.
From the Independent.
History repeats itself" Like all the
good old maxims. this is reversible. and
we can say with equal truth and falsity.
History never repeats ITSELF" Neither
statement has any value except as rhet-
orical phrase to call attention to some
marked similarity or dissimiarity In
events Ever since Plutarch showed us
how easy and interesting it is. We have
been using the fallacious method of his
toric parallels. 1t is very convenient to
the student of history. but altogether mis-
leading to the men who are actively en-
gagged in making history. Like causes do
not produce like effects In practical poll
tics, because what we call like causes
are generally casual resemblances between
certain conspicuous but often insignificant
factors.
None of us can altogether escape the
temptation to use historic paralelism as
substitute for hard thinking and real In
vestigation in the case of the revolution
or what we hope will prove to be the revo-
iution-in Russia. But 1t is already clear
that the analogy with the French revolu-
ton has been confusing rather than en-
tightening to us specta tors. as apparently
it has been also to the Russian actors in
the drama. There was the duma: was it
not just like the states general? And did
it not meet in May. too startling coin
cidence)? There were the constitutional
democrats for the Girondists and the
Group of Toll for the Mountain. When
they found the doors closed against them
by orders of the sovereign, they knew eX-
actly what to do AS though it were a
play they had rehearsed they made a ten
mis- court out of the dining room in the
hotel at Viborg, and reassemblng there,
took the oath to stand by each other and
the people, just as the third estate did III
years before. And what next? A glance
at the prompt-book showed them that the
taking of the Bastile was next In order.
On to kronstadt, then!
But just here something went wrong
The government had apparently turned
over too many leaves and got the wrong
cue. They had skipped six years: 1t was
the 18th of Vendemaire instead Of the 14th
of July, and they dispersed the mob with
Napoleons Whit Of grapeshot- The diff
f1culty was that Nicholas II had also read
history and had manifest unwillingness
to play the role of Louis XVI Here. then,
our analogy breaks down. just when we
need II most.
But before we take leave of it. there is
draw from It: that u.s. the lesson of pa
thence. In spite Of all our memorizing Of
dates, we really have the impression that
the French revolution was over In about
six weeks, and that 1t moved smoothly.
like some majestic river. to its ''inevitabfe'
end. How haphazard. bathing and uncer-
tain 1t really appeared to those who were
in 1t we can realize only by much reading
Of memoirs and letters. Our philosophical
historians mislead US in this. 1t was four
years before the French got rid of their
king and f1fty-nine years before a gen.
uine republic was established. II. then.
the Russians have done away with the
car by 1910. and have a good popular
government by 1885, we may congratulate
them on doing as we'll as did their proto-
types and allies the French.
II we drop such superficial cOmpariSOnS
and take a broader view of history, we
can derive encouragement in this crisis
from the observation that French revo-
luton is not the only or the best way to
attain liberty All other European peo-
pies. except the Turks and the Russians,
have now substantially the same political
has passed through crisis resembling the
reign of terror and Napoleon's epoch
We can palliate these periods Of blood
and tyranny because we can see the good
that resulted from them. The depressing
thing about the present Russian situation
is the apparent fruitlessness of the period
Of blood and tyranny through which they
have passed. For all their self-sacrifice
and heroism. Russian people now seem
further from liberty than they were six
months ago. We are promised agrarian
riots In the fall. but will these not be as
frutless as the French jacquerfes of the
fourteenth century? The revolutionists
have proved that they can burn down hay
stacks and manors. seize battleships and
1OrtreSSeS, aSSaSSlnate OnlC1aIS, print and
distribute prohibited literature paralyze
industry, commerce and communication by
strikes, barricads the streets and make
and throw bombs, but to what good? And
suppose they do all these things again in
few months. what reason is there for
thinking that they will be any more sue
cessful? We used to hear that Russia was
one vast powder magazine. and only want
ed a spark to set 1t off, Well, there have
been sparks enough Of late.
Apparently. the bureaucracy has. from
its short-sighted point of view, manaxed
things very skillfully and obtained a tao
teal advantage. The duma was allowed
to meet and talk long enough to show the
futility of meeting and talking and then
quietly dismissed, according to the forms
of law The radical members alienated the
more conservative reformers in the duma
by their extreme measures and violent
language. and now they have gone home
they are being horse-whipped by their
peasant constituents for not getting them
| land. The call for a general strike was
not obeyed, and the revolutionary leaders
are discredited The mutinous sailors and
soldiers were fired upon by their comrades.
| The bureaucracy has adopted the tactics
of the enemy and is fighting fire with fire
| The BLACK Hundreds meet the RED
Guards in the streets, and assassination
| Is followed by counter-assassination. We
do not despair of Russia, but the path to
an overthrow of the government by a rev.
olution of force seems blocked for the
present. The political progress of such a
race as the Russian cannot be long pre-
vented by an anachronistic autocracy. but
it Is not safe to prophesy what direction its