The Fargo forum and daily republican. [volume] (Fargo, N.D.) 1894-1957, 1906-09-12

duty of Z francs must be deducted
to give a price basis for wheat from
other countries. The market shows
| some weakness and we believe that in
fortnight African wheat will not
cost more than % francs"
While the export demand for dur
UNI wheat at Duluth is good, it seems
probable that it will be satisfied be-
fore any very large percentage of the
crop has been exported-this in view
of the fact that the worlds crop of
macaroni wheat is doubtless much the
largest on record. ')A-
If this surmise proves true, there
must inevitably be a large accuniula-
ton of this wheat at Duluth and else
where, Now, if the export demand
becomes satisfied, as seems probable,
the result must be price depreciation
to a point where the wheat will be
used for some purpose-feed, if moth
ing better.
Yet all this does not give any sug-
gestion of the probable effect on the
price of other wheat.
There is general feeling among
elevator managers that the difference
lin price between durum and No.
northern will widen, and this seems
reasonable. At present the difference
| at Duluth between September (con-
tract grade) and September durum is
but 6 cents. This difference might
easily widen, later, to 10@15 cents.
r Some of the elevator managers say
that they will not hedge durum as if
it were No. 2 or 3 northern owing to
| the fear of a widening of the differ
ence the wrong way. Ye there will
doubtless be some hedging in the reg
ular markets, which will have the
same depressing effect as if that much
additional spring wheat were sold.
When asked for an opinion regard
ing the probable effect the durum
crop would have on the markets, sew
eral elevator managers with whom
I the writer talked shook their heads
uncertainty. The local trade has got
| to looking at durum as a cereal by
itself, and not wheat, so that 1T finds
| it hard to see any affinity. In fact,
one manager put it this way "Durum
is not wheat, in a market sense, any
more than barley is. 1t cannot be
| hedged in the wheat market with any
more safety than barley, for condi-
tions that may effect the price of dur
UNI will have no influence on No. 1
northern. 1t should be called dur
UNI with the wheat left off,
| The fact remains, however, that the
! trade in large, particularly when the
crop is growing and when the first
movement is on, looks at durum as so
much wheat-as so many bushels.
| The first effect of a large crop of dur
UNI must, therefore, be bearish; in
fact, almost as depressing to the mar
ket as if it we're all spring wheat
This apparently, is the present market
situation. The big crop of wheat in
the northwest has made European and
domestic buyers bearish. Yet if they
| had realized that the northwest had
i raised 100, ITO, or 1s0.000,00O bushels
of spring wheat, and 40. so or CO.,
| 100000 bushels of durum, whatever
the exact proportion may be, it is
probable that their bearishness might
have been tempered
Therefore, it seems probable that
| thes effect of large crop of durum is
decidedly bearish and that it's infiu-
1 ence is felt early. Later in the crop
!, year, the two wheats will probably
4 have to work out their own salvation
Independently and on their individual
merits.