The Minneapolis journal. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn.) 1888-1939, 1906-03-22
A MERRY WAR ON
OYER 1904 CROP
N. w. MILLER FIRES BROADSIDE
AT JONES ESTIMATE. =,
Much Type and Irony Devoted to Show
ing the Shocking Chasm Between ga
Lettle Too High and "a Leetle Too
w'-What Jones Really Said.

Like thunder from clear sky comes
a full-page broadside from the guns of
the Northwestern Miller, announcing
the reopening Of the battle of the ex-
perts over the wheat crop of 1904. II. Y.
Jones. the noted estimator, and w. G..
Edgar, editor of the Northwestern Mil
Ter, once fought a long and windy cam
paign over the figures covering the
Yields in the northwest that year. To-
day, with the mind of the grain trade
fixed upon the coming crop and every
one waiting to hear something about
wheat in 1906, the two statisticians" ARE
again at it, each contendinG for the SUI
premacy Of his figures covering 1904.
The year 1904 was memorable for the
rust that visited the northwest and cut
down the wheat yield very materially
from the early promise. Prices scared
and wheat went above the dollar line.
the greater part OF the crop being mar
keted at prices that means great things
for the farmer. Mr.. Jones was the dis
coverer of the rust, and it was his re-
ports Of the infection that started the
markets going. Many farmers, profit
ing by the advancing prices. felt CRATE
ditions that helped them reap the adj
vantages of a bull market, and it has
been contended that the Jones reports
raised the market value of large part
Of the crop to higher level and thus
brought more money into the north
west, benefting business generally.
Mr.. Edgar. who has long been identi-
fed with the great industry that made
Minneapolis, could see another side to
it. Wheat sold at figures so high that
the Minneapolis millcrs lost their ex-
port trade in -four and other bad fea
lures were noted. Mr.. Edgar also
fought. on general principles, the spirit
of manipulation that showed in the
| market. and was a conservative at times
when the markets were wild and sen
| sationalism a feature.
MIR. Jones estimated the crop of Min
nesota, North and South Dakota that
year at 12S,O0O,00O bushels, not includ-
| ing macaroni. Mr.. Edgar's estimate
| was higher. the Northwestern Miller
| figures of Oct ). 1904. being 1885,
! 200 bushels, not including macaroni.
His latest report, dated March ID last,
| gives the total at l5S,000,0O0. His CON
ures were too low, and that there was
no warrant for the extremely high
wheat prices. The great decline in
May of the year following is taken as
proof of this.
The controversy centers largely
around the much abused macaroni, or
durum. or goose wheat. Mr.. Edgar has
IouSut tHIS wheat IOOCH anu Hall. nc
has thrown discredit upon the depart
ment of agriculture for it's persistence
in introducing it, Mr.. Jones said there
was about 100000 bushels of it in
1904. Thus if Mr.. Edgar recognizes
it as wheat, it belongs on the Jones
estimate and raises the figures by that
quantity, and it makes some difference
whether or not it is so recognized.
Stated briefly. the estimates for 1904
Ia OF in, An,
gust. 12S 100000 bushels, not including
macaroni; Edgar estimate. Oct. 5. LA,
100000, not inc uding macaroni. If
the northwest raised 100000 bushels
macaroni, then the Jones figures should
be be .d33S,0OOO,oO0; and the Edgar figures
Of current date puts the crop at 15s,
100000. The Miller, therefore, by its
own figures. would appear to have been
26,00O000 too high, and Jones', 90,
100000 too low. Jones issued his fig
ures in August, when the wheat was un
cut and at that time announced that il
was extremely difficult under the pc
culiar circumstances affecting the crop
to, reach close estimate, while the
was possible. from threshing returns
and other sources, to get better line
on the, whole. In a sense the one was
! an estimate. the other a tabulation
On Aug. 4. 1904, Mr.. Jones said
"The difficulty in reaching an early
conclusion on the wheat yield of NORTH
Dakota is more apparent as investiga
ton proceeds. There will be a crop o:
wheat in the northwest. however, bu
much of it will be inferior in quality
There is some very fine wheat in Nortl
Dakota, and some of it will get thr,
Safely
On Aug. II. Mr.. Jones said: 9th,
situation of the northwest wheat GRO,
does not clear up satisfactorily. I
would be easy to submit guess at thi
time but it would be only guess. I
might be misleading or close to tn
result. according to the luck of tn,
guesser. The Red river valley has al
excellent stand Of wheat, taken as
whole. We wish no one to infer tina
the wheat crop. is destroyed. Their
has been extensive damage, but toda
there is fair wheat crop in the north
vest