Los Angeles herald., 1906-12-15
RACING PERCENTAGE
is AGAINST THE PLAYER
Careful Calculation Demonstrates That Where the
BookieS Stick to the Block They Have
Every Advantage Over Public
From the New York Telerrnnh.

add to more than 100, for therein lies
his percentage.
The first requisite i'm making any fur
ther analysis of this kind of betting Is
a thorough understanding of the rela-
tion between odds and chances. No de-
Walton from this invariable relation
can be made without working an injus-
tice to one of the parties to the bet.
knowing the chances for or against the
occurrence of any event, Ii Is, of
course, possible to determine the true
odds or. in a like manner the odds
being known. it Is always possible to
determine the exact chance implied.
Confusion may result from assuming
that the chances against a horse are
equal to the number of other horses
I'm the race. 1t is, of course, true that
the work of the Handicapped is an ef-
fort to bring horses together on some
thing like equal terms, but 1t has never
reached degree OF perfection that
would warrant the layer in dealing
with the horses as though they were
numbered chances in q hat. No system
of assigning weights could ever result
in such universal dead heat. 1t may
be 40 or even 400 to one that a horse
Will not win, even though there may
be but two or three other horses COM
peting with him, and In another race
the same horse may be quoted at even
money against a field VI 10. 1t may be
said, however that every horse in a
race has some sort of a chance to win.
but as there is no known way of de-
termining by mathematics exactly what
it is, an estimate, based on judgment
of the weights and other conditions,
must be made In order to assign the
chances with any degree of consistency
100 or any other round number may be
taken as a unit.
The odds in each case must then be
laid in exact relation to the number of
chances assigned. Following this
method it is obvious that the sum of
the respective chances cannot consist
emily exceed 100, or whatever unit may
be taken. The odds actually laid in the
betting ring, however, show that the
public is often compelled to play, or,
rather, depend upon chances that do
not exist. For an example, to prove the
case, take any race at random, say,
the third at Aqueduct on November 10.
This is how the odds were laid:
ven ':;...'''.......'.''.'... Even
AdOratlon ........................... TO
31oIins .''''''''''''''''''''''''' 10 l
Veil, accord to the odds, had an even
money chance to win. Even money is
chance to win as there is to lose. This
is the same as one chance in a total of
two. or 80 in 100. Three to one implies
that Alteration had one chance in four,
the same as 25 in 100. Eight to one
implies that Loring had one chance in
a total of nine, the same as Ill in 100,
while to against Barbary Belle
shows that the filly must have had
chance just equal to five in a total of
al hnN,f soto
of all these chances is little over 124
it follows that between "a and 25
chances have been allotted somewhere
that do not exist. At the odds the pub
lie will have to put up so per cent. of
all the money involved about Adora-
tion Ill per cent. of all involved about
Loring, and 3S1a per cent. of all in
volved about Barbary Belle. BY thus
interpreting the odds into chances over
"a per cent. is found to exist against
the player. With a like amount in
Volved about each horse the bookmaker
is bound to keep 24.6 per cent, to be
exact.
Since the chances of the horses are
necessarily based on an estimate, the
proportion of chance allotted to any
particular one might be forever in dis
pute, but after the chances of a por-
tion of them have been assigned the
COilSlolClll CldllCcS dCIudlly dllOlleu ny
the odds to Alteration, Loring and Bar
barry Belle, respectively, was 74.6 out
of the total of 100. There were then
25.4 remaining to go to Veil, making
her chances approximately % in 100.
She could not have had so chances, as
the price of even money would make
it appear, because there were not so
chances left that could be assigned
According to the odds against the 9TH
ers it was actually to / that Veil
would not win, but Veil did win and
her hackers took even money.
The shortage in the odds place and
third is even greater than the odds to
win. In fact, here is where the heavi-
est percentages of all are made. Ask
almost any bookmaker how to calcu-
late the place and show price against
horse that is 10 to 1 in the straight
betting. He will take half of 10, sub
tract l and lay up 4. Then for the