Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1906-01-06
WEATHER FORECASTS.
NO Relation Between the Moons
Phases and Earth's Atmosphere.

From the Popular Science Monthly
That the dissemination of erroneous pre-
dictions and false prophesies OF any kind il
always injurious is very evident. In every
community there are always many to be-
ieve and take fright at any prediction of
disaster, however baseless such prediction
may be- Certain then it is that the publ
cation of weather forecasts based on the
cries. often little better than superstitious
conjecture, especially when these forecasts
attempt a prediction OF atmospheric phe-
nonena of a dangerous and damaging char
acter. such as severe storms. foods and
drcughts. is injury TO the public in
terest.
In our day and generation there are So
called long-range weather forecasters who
persist IN their efforts to foist their predc-
tons upon the public for personal gain.
Too often they receive liberal compensation
for their absurd predictions, thus preying
upon the credulity of the public 1t is
mainly to help to counteract this growing
tendency by explaining their methods and
theories that this article has been pre-
pared.
All times and all peoples have had their
weather prophets. No factor among the
forceS of nature influences mans temporal
Well-being more than weather and climate,
ana hence the changes in weather condi-
earliest times and attempts made to ac-
count FOR their causes. and thus be able to
foIesee them. The appearances which were
ianna by experience to precede weather
time, and these have given rise to many
weather proverbs, many of which are the
result OF close observations by those COM
PEELED to be on the alert, and hence are
based In part upon true atmospheric condi-
lions.
1t was but natural that in the lookout
CrnQ hnr to-,a
diously scanned the heavens and have as
ISOLATED the celestial bodies with changes
In the weather, often enormously. as causa-
ton. Thus astronomy has been closely as
ISOLATED in the popular mind with meteor
ology This has taken such deep root that
even today a weather observer and prog
associated with telescopes and the celestial
sphere. This may account for the ease
with which SO many people can be gulled
by weather predictions pretendedly based
upon the influence of the planets Meteor
ology too. was so long neglected both I'm
popular and liberal systems of educations
But this has changed, and now even
throughout the public schools OF this coun-
try the subject OF meteorology has taken a
firm place.
The moon was for a long time widely
great weather breeder and prognosticator.
But In recent years the lunar idea OF
weather control has been largely discarded.
This belief could hardly be considered more
BILE to see from an astronomical analysis
how the varying positions of the lunar
cusps could in any way be connected with
the character Of the weather.
The moons appearance to us depends on
the relative position Of the moon and sun
10 regard to the observers horizon. From
new to full the moon gradually increases
from a crescent to full circle, and back
again from full to new. The positions OF
the crescent vary, as the moon Shining by
the light OF the sun which she reflects 10
us) is sometimes north of the SUMS path
and sometimes south of it. The variation
is probably noticed most In the new moon
which Is seen when the sun is just below
the horizon. A line joining the horns OF a
new moon Is sometimes nearly vertical, and
oftentimes nearly horizontal. These were
supposed to foreteil the weather, the first
being called wet moon" and the second
dry moon"
Even il the several lunar phases did in
fuence our atmosphere. the same phase
should produce the same effect all around
the world (as the earth revolvesS on Its axis
in twenty-four hours for any given lati-
tude circle. 1t is true that the ocean tides
are for a large part the result Of the moons
attraction. but this force, when applied to
the earth's atmosphere. is wholly INSULT
Client to produce any appreciable disturb
ance In the atmosphere. 1t Is most proDa-
BILE that the moon belief grew up out OF
the naturally frequent coincidence between
certain weather changes (and certain brands
of weather) and selected moon phases. The
moon enters a new phase. or quarter. every
seventh day. and the weather Eat least In
the middle latitudes) changes on the aver
age of one to two times In seven days;
hence there must be great many acci-
dental condolences. And II one counts tho
agreements and overlooks the disagree
E1ents. quite theory could be announced.
The lunar phase theory was not found to
bear the test of accurate comparison OF
weather observations with the lunar phases,
except in this very slight and imperfect
manner, which is entirely insufficient to
have any value in weather prediction.
Nevertheless the moon and her changing
phases have been the basis of nearly all
the weather forecasts found in the alma
macs And the almanac has probably re-
ceiyed more wide distribution. and been
more greatly cherished by the people Of all
countries than any other publication next
to the Bible.