The semi-weekly messenger. [volume] (Wilmington, N.C.) 1897-1908, 1906-01-23

and are made under a feeling Of re-
sponsibility to the government which
the unpaid observer does not have
The report contains many tables
comparing the estimates Of acreage and
production Of various crops as made
by the bureau of statistics reached in
decennial years by the bureau OF the
census, in which the wide divergence
Of the results reached by the two gov
eminent offices is clearly brought out.
In making these comparisons between
the figures Of the bureau Of statistics
and the census bureau, it is consid-
cred that as between as estimate and =,
the result of an enumeration
This does not mean that the census
figures are o in some cases inacu-
rate. but simply that no other stan !
dard of comparison exists. The diver !
gencies between the results found are
so great that very considerable errors
in the returns from the census would
not affect the conclusions OF the re-
port.
The report says that in every in
stance, except in the case OF three cot
ton reports in the last six years, Inc
| bureau of statistics estimates have Deen
| underestimate. The undertaking
| has beer especially great in the case
| Of cereal crops and live stock Inc
| conclusion of the committee is that the
methods OF the bureau OF statistics
| must be greatly improved Or the ser
| vice discontinued. In the case OF cot
| ton. although the bureau or StaLlsucS
| has underestimate the crop IN. every
| instance, if judged by its reports eS-
pressed in number of bales. neVerthe-
less. if the bales are reduced TO POUNDS
| of lint cotton it appears that out OF tne
six last reports on cotton yleld, the
bureau of statistics has overestln'atef
the crop in three cases and underes-
timated it in three cases. The mucI
criticised cotton crop report IN lsot
shows a variation from the ginning re-
turns obtained by the census bureau
of nine Der cent. in number OF bales.
but this variation is reduced to ~
per cent. when the bales are convert
ed into pounds of lint cotton. The bu-
reau of statistics cannot avoid respon-
eibilitv for the larger variation einca
it announced it's result in bales n
not in pounds and by adopting a weight
of bale greater than in any previous
wear it thereby reduced the number OF
bales in it's published estimate. The re-
| tfOl L lloACD ' ~ 4CoS ".
ing to improvement Of the service. 1t
saws that crop conditions should be ex-
pressed in percentages without frac-
tons. since the use OF fractions I'M
plies a larger measure of accuracy than
can be expected of a mere estimate,
and since all the figures on which the
crop estimating board exercises its
Judgment are in percentages Without
fractions. 1t recommends that In the
case of cotton the %percentage figure OF
conditions be converted into bales OF
indicated weight by a we'll known cCu
mercial formula. 1t recommends the
transfer of the determination of the
cotton acreage planted from the bureau
l of statistics to the bureau Of census. A
large diminutiOn in the number or cor
respondents of the bureau is also rec
commended. The committee urges tina
. no further returns on cotton be ASKED
I for from township correspondents. IN
. dividnal farmers and that the money
thus saved be utilized in improving
: the organization. The state agents
salaries should be increased and they
. should be allowed travelling expenses
so as to select their sub-correspondent:
by personal contact instead of by
l system of letters and seed distribution
= The state agencies should be inspect
. ed by an inspector from the Washing
ton Office so that their methods OF do
ing the work can be carefully observ
ed. There is no such inspection ser
vice and the need thereof has e re
Gently brought out with clearness. Tn
number of travelling field agents of III
> department should be sufficient to GOV
:, er every part of their territory eacl
u month. All these recommendations eX
u press the conclusion Of h commute
" that the bureau of statistics snoul
y have personal knowledge of its CORE
%spondents, and that much better re
g suits can be obtained from a smalle
service, better paid and thoroughly IN
y spected, than from a large number G
:, correspondents of whom b burea
:, has little or no knowledge.
An important recommendation OF tn
= report is that the bureau of statistics
u in the case of cotton, confine it's wor
70 to it's monthly reports, expressing tn
= condition of the growing crop durin
~ the growing season. Not only shout
= the acreage planted be determined b
10 the census bureau by a process (
e enumeration but the ginning statistic
- of the census bureau should be the on
!. government report on yield of cottol
e The bureau of statistics now puts OF
- it's report on cotton yield about tt
: third of December. By December
~ the ginning statistics cove 80 p'
- CEN of the crop, and a more authorit;
=, tive estimate of the total crop can
~ made from these Statistics than fro
~ the estimates of the bureau.
e Discussing the ginning statistics
a the census bureau. the report reach
. the conclusion that the earlier repor
y of ginning cover so small a proportic
of the crop as to be without value.
li recommends that no ginning report
10 issued before the middle of Octooe
VI when the amount of the crop glnn'
is between 20 and so per cent. L
~ expense saved by abandoning the ca
: lier ginning reports will go far iowa
meeting the expense involved in t
"a determination of the cotton acrea