The Birmingham age-herald., 1906-10-23
DESICCATIOh OF ASIA.
Failure of the Water Supply Potent
 Cause of Migrations.

From the Geographical Journal.
 The phenomena of rivers, large and
 small. of springs, lakes, ruins and vege-
 tation, all seem to point to a gradual desiccation of Chinese Turkestan for nearly 15O0 miles east and west and 300
 north and south. The records of an-
 tiquity indicate that the Caspian and Aral seas were once more extensive than
 now, and presumably that the tribu- tary rivers were much larger. Trans
 caspia eastern Persia and the neighbor-
 ing regions appear to have been sub
 ject to a desccation similar to that of
 Turkestan, and indicated by similar phe-
 nomena Thus all the more arid part of Asia, from the Caspian sea eastward for
 more than 25OO miles. appears to hvae
 been subject to a climatic change where by it has been growing less and less
 habltable for the last two or three thou sand years.
 Such a change, embracing Persia, Balu- chistan, Afghanistan. Russian Turkestan and Chinese Turkestan, and probably an even larger area. and converting thou
 sands of square miles of habitable coun- try into desert can hardly fail to have had some effect upon human distribu-
 tion and history Tn Chinese Turkestan part at least of the ancient towns ap- pear to have been abandoned deliberate ly, presumably because the water sup ply became limited. Movements of the same sort are today taking place on a small scale all over the arid parts Of Asia In 1904 800 Cossack nomads, with their flocks and herds, came to Lob Nor, and would have settled among the reeds of the lower Cherchen river if Chinese soldiers had not driven them out with bloodshed. The nomads had come from the Altai mountains, where pasture had become too scanty either because of in creaing drought or increasing population,
 or more probably both Such movements only need to be magnified to cause in
 vasions like those of the Dark Ages.
 That they were magnifed in Turkestan
 when the Buddhist towns were aban- doned appears highly probable. The aban-
 donment took place in the early centu- ries of the Christian era, and for most l of the time from that day to this the whole country from Keriya eastward for 600 miles, almost to China proper, re-
 mained practically uninhabited, even
 more so than today. Not only the in- habitants of the towns disappeared. but also the shepherd tribes among the
 mountains, who judging from names, i traditions and ancient roads and dwell ings. were formerly numerous. and who
 would feel the pinch of aridity more quickly and keenly than the townspeople.
 Part of the population may have been
 killed in war or have died in the epi-
 denies which rage when a country is
 overpopulated, but the rest must have
 migrated. If. though only in bands of a few thousands, they invaded regions al-
 ready we'll populated. where the means 1 of livelihood were growing less because
 of desiccation. distress and wars would
 ensue and the only relief would lie In i further and greater mgrations. Thus,
 all central Asia being under the same
 ever increasing stress, succession of
 dry years or change such as has talk
 en place in Chinese Turkestan since 1900, l from an increasing to a decreasing quan- l tity of water in the rivers. might cause
 migrations equal to the greatest recorded l In history.