The Birmingham age-herald. [volume] (Birmingham, Ala.) 1902-1950, 1906-08-27
NEW FACTS ABOUT
BASEBALL CHANCES
Records for a Long Period
Show Much of Interest
DOES SACRIFICE PAY2
Easier to Steal Third Base Than Sec
oqd, According to Percent
ages Obtained From Many
Games.
DOES SACRIFICE PAY ?.

hear some one say: THERE'S still a
chance" Maybe he tells you how much
of a chance But does he know? You
can figure that certain man at bat has
hit .S42 for the season. and Immediately
you think he has better than one chance
/ in three to make a hit
But what the chances are of a certain
play being pulled off successfully few
know. l wanted to find out--so 1 took
four old score books of four different
years. They contained scores of four DIFF
ferent Chicago National league teams
and four other teams, one Cincinnati and
three Chico White Stockings. as the
home teams against all the other clubs
in their leagues. Practically, therefore,
they represented the work of practically
sixty-four different ball clubs, covering d
period of eight years. embracing all kinds
/ of teams and players, and, of course, the
pennant winners and the tail enders. By
studying the 1853 games recorded in these
! books I got some clews as to the chances
of certain plays being pulled off The re-
suits were rather startling, writes Hugh
c. Fullerton in the Chicago Tribune.
| AS to the chances of making a base hit
In the 1853 games 1886 batters were cred
tied with times at bat, and of these 1882
made base hits. The batting average of
the teams. therefore, was .2O9, which
shows that even the despised 240 hitter
is going some compared with the grand
average
In these 1853 games 929 men drew passes
to first base, or one man was permitted to
walk out of every IA 1-S approximately
who faced the pitcher. The figures showed
that Abs men walked to first on bases
on balls In every game, or that the odds
/ against a batter getting a base on balls
should be approximately 10 2-5 to l.
There were 81 men hit by pitched balls,
which seems exceedingly low, although,
come to think of it, there are many games
in which no one is hit, so the average of
one every three games (the figures show
slightly under this or one every 2 6-62)
does not seem so far wrong after ALL
The chances of a man being placed in a
position to sacrifice are pretty large for
approximately one In every "a men who
went to bat, or, rather, faced the pitcher,
| tried to sacrifice. There were $50 sacrifice
hits made In the games counted, which is
an average of II per game. This aver
age approximately is right. I should judge.
as 1t includes the games of the old Chi
cago National league team under Arson
that seldom used the sacrifice, and many
White Stocking games in which the Chi
cago team under Comiskey carries the
sacrifice hit game to its Nth power.
l discovered some figures that rather
tend to discourage the art of sacrifice
hitting. In those games 81 men were
sent to bat to sacrifice, according to my
scores. How many disobeyed orders and
hit it out I can only guess, and likewise
there Is chance that lot of them de-
cided to hit after they had two strikes
called. But at any rate, GIL of them
went through with the attempt to sac
4 rif1ce. and $50 of them succeeded in their
| efforts showing that nearly ga per cent
of them succeeded. or that the odds ought
to be to on a man sacrificing sue
! cessfully. OF these $50 there were III
who beat out their hunts and got base
hits instead of sacrifices. In 81 cases the
fielders made wild throws and let the
runner go on to second, and the notes
Indicate that sacrifices were the direct
causes of winning 81 games of ball; that
is, one sacrifice or attempted sacrifice
turned the tide and won the game.
Fifty-eight batters struck out trying to
sacrifice. and 100 popped up flies.
The figures Indicating how many at
tempted hunts resulted in forcing run
ners at second are incomplete or not
plainly indicated, but | find in the scores
92 such cases.
Perhaps the most striking and startling
figures resulting from the investigation
are those on stolen bases and attempts
to steal. In 1856 games 1867 men tried to
| steal bases, an average of about to
the game, or a little under that. OF those
S22 tried to steal second base and 27S
u q IL - n
home. The figures indicate that the near
er home runner gets the easier 1t is to
! steal as of the IL who tried to steal
home succeeded. These figures, however,
: are fallacious as the steal of home usual
ly is by some brilliant daring runner
and achieved by a sudden dash when the
pitcher is asleep.
However, the figures plainly reveal the
| fact that 1t is easier to steal third base
than 1t is to steal second. OF the s22 men
who tried to steal second 455 were sue
| cessful while 1867 were caught. or 90 Ia
| per cent reached the base in safety. OF
the 273 who tried to steal third 1853 reach
ed the base, or over 81 per cent. Yet near
ly four times as many tried to steal sec
| ond as attempted to steal third.
The figures further show that of the
273 who tried to steal third 90 scored, and
of these 81 scored on wild throws from
| the catcher resulting from their steals.
| of the 455 who stole second 43 went on to
| third on wild throws from the catcher,
| showing that the catcher Is far more
likely to make wild throw to catch
| runner at third than he is to throw
| wild to second.
can find in the books only sixteen
| Instances of attempts to make the
squeeze play and of these eleven were
| successful and five failures. In four of
| these five failures the batter missed the
hall and in the other the bunt went
straight TO the pitcher, who threw out
the runner at the plate, and the appended
| note says that the pitchers feat was a
| marvellous one.
| Among other things I looked up the
| chances of a man scoring when he reaches
/ different bases. In these games 1913 men
reached first base by hits, errors, being
| hit, or bases on balls, or fielders' choices,
/ or an average OF about 2112 to the game.
| OF these 2106 reached second. 1911 reach
! ed third and 974 scored. 1t always had
| seemed to be until then that about half
| the base runners got left at third, ~
when there are fewer than 400 left there
| in 1855 games 1t seems that the idea is a
| fallacious one.
| In these games there were 1854 runners
| who reached third with two out and OF
1 these only 81 scored or about / in s. OF
| those who reached thirS with one out
| there were 9s of them--52 reached the
plate, and of the 43 who reached third
| with none out 81 scored, the others being
| cut off at the plate.
OF the 1888 who tried to score from sec
| ond on base hits, only 25>were caught at
| the plate or about l in 7.
The chances of advancing a runner from
| first to second base on the hit to right
/ field game is far less, according to these