New-York tribune., 1906-05-07
MONEY AND BUSINESS.
commerce

|
reasons given for each movement and equally
positive prognostications regarding the future
with full explanations therefor But the recent
decline appears to have puzzled all who failed
to realize that the advance Of the sixty most
active railway securities 70 S120 90 last Janu-
ary the highest point on record, in the face OF
approaching stringency in the money market
| contained elements OF speculative imitation that
might prove dangerous Yet the decline aver
aged only S11 a share. and was distributed
over so long a period that nothing in the nature
Of a panic occurred, although the reaction would
have been much more violent If outsiders had
responded extensively to the invitation 70 oper-
ate early in the year. Any such heavily mar
gined account as existed when the high record
was established in 1901 would have produced
disastrous results. but the forced selling came
principally from strong syndcates and pools
that were able to dispose Of their holdings
gradually. Although money market conditions
dominated speculation there were several other
adverse factors, notably anxiety regarding the
Garfield report and the Presidents message.
but as usual when the worst was known, the
market recovered, and the prospect Of resumption
Of anthracite mining caused a strong closing.
Stringency has continued in the money mar
ket call rates touching II per cent and aver
| aging about per cent for the week, despite ex-
tensive liquidation OF securities and liberal re-
ceipts OF gold from abroad. Although the pri-
mary cause Of higher rates for money was the
heavy movement 20 San Francisco. other ele-
ments have contributed. In view OF the large
| amount OF specie that has come from Europe and
the extent TO which the operation was facilitated
| by the Secretary Of the Treasury, it is becom-
ing evident that serious monetary pressure
would have occurred but for the government aid'
which was greeted at the time with so much
criticism. In relation to the scarcity Of money. IL
is somewhat interesting to note that the Off
cial report Of the total amount in circulation on
May / showed a large rise above all previous
records. to S32 % for each inhabitant. despite
an increase in the estimated population to s4,.
428OOO OF course. the chief gain in the
/ month OF April was supplied by imports OF gold,
| although banknote circulation rose slightly. Ex-
change rates declined still further as the local
money market attracted offerings OF finance
bills, and all recent International operations sug
gest question as to when and how these loans
will be met.
Fundamental business conditions have been
improved still further by increased cOnserva-
tism as to speculative undertakings. The vol"
ume Of legitimate trade Of ali kinds has not sur-
fered, except IN so far as tight money has In
creased requests for extension Of time in mer-
camille settlements. This is an element OF the
situation that cannot be measured, and may do
ment, there has been no increase Of bankruptcies
thus far. long period Of prosperity having put
most concerns in position to give their customers
little more time Numerous small strikes were
started on May 1, the only one Of consequences
being the Iongshoremens difficulty at lower lake
ports. While this would be a serious matter
II continued for any length Of time it is
understood that Mr.. Gompers Will arbitrate on
May Is. Among the minor strikes the few dis
putes of more than local consequences were in
various branches Of the iron and steel industry.
and only involve a few thousand men in the
aggregate.
Speculative operations in cotton tended to
strengthen quotations, and there was the fur
ther support of liberal consumption by spinners,
but prices had to contend with fairly good
sized stocks in all positions and estimates
pointing toward largely increased crop this
season. provided future weather conditions are
satisfactory. The Norden estimate, which is en-.
titled to confidence in view Of previous accuracy,
indicated an acreage OF more than thirty-one
million, and several other statements sug-
gested an increase of per cent compared with
last years figures Il is evident that planters
are not following the advice to restrict produc-
ton. which is not surprising in view of the fact
that quotations have been averaging almost four
cents pound more than they did a year ago.
Indications promise That exports will fall about
a million bales short of the previous crop year.
but with the higher prices there should be little
difference in value. Wheat has had to contend
with the interruption to movement on the lakes
which naturally increases the cost to exporters
while at the Northwest consumption by the
flour mills has decreased considerably, although
It Is still larger than at the same time in 1905
Most Of the strikes in progress affect the lead
ing manufacturing industry. but thus far no
serious restriction OF output has occurred It may
prove that the movement Of iron ore is seriously
disturbed. and including all strike influences
it is practically certain that the output Of blast
furnaces in May will fall behind recent high rec
the strong position recently attained, no diff
Guilty being experienced in obtaining full quota.
rlons, which maintains the markets for leather
and hiues. Gil being at about the highest point
of the season. Cotton mills report quiet condi-
tions as to new business. but the primary mar-
kets are firm. and there is enough work in sight
TO keep machinery actively engaged Some
disappointment is expressed regarding the num-
Der of buyers in attendance at the sale Of wash
fabrics. but liberal orders were placed, and the
general position of jobbers is strengthened by
the knowledge that retailers throughout the
| country are not carrying excessive stocks. The
new heavyweight season for woollens is SLOWLY
opening. and the attitude of clothiers will soon
| be known, but In so far as prices are concerned
| the position of Western wool growers promises
no relief, as they asking about two cents
above parity with Eastern markets.
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With the return OF warm weather talk OF
ventilating and cooling the subway Is renewed