The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1906-06-04

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Tho truth IL. however. that Tho 1uirtnras
~ tho market was only natural under the
circumstances, and " IL apparent that Ter
4 month or ait werkp hack tho stock market
has been acting IN IN absolutely normal
manner, ~ distinguished from that arti-
fciahiy which over more than ono long
period In recent YEARS has characterized
Il II was wholly logical that prices should
drop quickly following the san Francisco
disaster. ahonld then recover sharply,
move neTvouaiy bark and forth for n while.
and should then for an Indefinite period
remain inactive. Tho month ~ May, too.
Il for the hest Of reasons not unusually n
time whom there Ia no marked advance or
do cline In Stock Exchange valuations.
n Ia one oi the critical crop months and
overs tho slow maturity Of a period when
for the first time In tho year something like
a definite outlook regarding tho crops
Il obtained. II il reasonable that NJ such
a time there should be more or leas Of a
halt In business affairs, or AT least that the
final conclusion ~ arrangements for great
enterprises Of various kinds should be
deferred until the results Of the month from
an agricultural point Of view are developed.
The observation Il needless that a great
deal depends In this country during the
present calendar twelve months on the
outcome Of the harvests. We have adj
mittedly incurred a large indebtedness
abroad by our borrowings for financial
undertakings. and while the balance OF
trade Is running heavily in our favor and
Is running more heavily in our favor now
than at any time in the current fiscal year,
II our crops should meet with disaster
and our power to export articles of staple
produce during the year be thus limited,
we might be more or less bothered to pay
of our foreign obligations as they fall due
Our country IL still In the main an agri-
cultural country. Phe Wall Street adage
still holds good that the wealth Of a country
is what comes out Of the ground; and,
although we are making enormous strides
az an industrial and manufacturing nation
and as an exporter Of manufactured goods.
It is in our production of corn and wheat
and cotton that our wealth chiefly consists.
On the other hand, if our crops this year
should be as large as they we're last season.
or II, indeed, they prove to be only what
are generally termed good crops" it is
clearly the opinion Of the great majority
Of conservative and well informed OBJ
servers Of financial and economic affairs
that at least another full years business
prosperity lies before the country n that
against this time Of plenty it is not likely
that any possible political or social dis
turbance can prevail.
While, therefore, the stock market last
week was ~perfunctory and embarrassing,
it's undertone was Enthusiastically strong and
firm, and at the close prices we're higher
than at any time since the San Francisco
disaster. In the large commission houses
the belief was still held firmly that the
tendency Of the market was upward and
that conditions in the country made for
distinct cheerfulness regarding the gen.
eral situation. While the all important
factor Of the crops yet remains In sus-
pense, everything on this point that has
been SO far made known is favorable. 1t
Ia commonly expected that, owing to the
dry weather that ruled over the winter
wheat belt during the latter part of April
and the first part of May, the Governments
report Of the state of the winter wheat
on the first of the month that will be made
public on the 10th instant will show a
somewhat lower average of condition than
it did a month previously. The drought,
however, or scarborough that prevailed
has disappeared and few people believe
that winter wheat has suffered any ma
terial damage from lack of moisture. In
the case of cotton, which forms much the
largest single item Of our export trade, the
prospect is equally If not more encourage
ing. The chief difficulty with the cotton crop
this year appears to be the scarcity Of labor
In the Southern States; but all disinterested
accounts agree that the condition Of the
crop on the first of the month was much
higher than in recent years n that there
is a very considerable increase in cotton
acreage. The result Of these developments
has been a heavy fall in the last ten days
in the price Of the speculative options call
ing for the future delivery of both cotton
and wheat and a general breaking down
of the speculation for the rise in these
commodities. This is, of course. gratifying
as pointing to the probability. Of large har-
vests; hut it is a more welcome event,
D eoially as concerns cotton, because it
means a release Of money held to further
these speculative campaigns. Active spec
| ulation throughout the South for the rise
in cotton has been on a scale far more ex-
banded than has been generally supposed.
Tb;a took the form not so much of d ealinp