The semi-weekly messenger. [volume] (Wilmington, N.C.) 1897-1908, 1906-01-23

employed III NldhIUG SGOD ILct1IiluikS l
of Acreage. Condition ard Yield.
Safeguards That are Taken to Pre-
IN Expressed in Percentages With
out Fractions-Urgc a Smaller Ser
vice. Better aid. ana Thoroughly
Inspected.
Washington, January 18.-Charles
Hallam Keep, assistant secretary OF
the treasury, and chairman OF the So
called Keep commission on department
methods. has submitted TO the Presl-
dent the commissions report OF its
investigation of the methods employ
ed by the bureau Of statistics OF the
department of agriculture in estinat-.
ing crops, and especially the cotton
crop.
In referring this matter to the Keep
commission, the President called par
ticular attention TO a resolution which
in September last was adopted by the
New England Cotton Manufacturers
Association, bringing into serious
question the reliability of the govern
ment crop reports and asking that the
matter be investigated by a competent
commission. The suggestion that the
subject be referred t the commission
of which Mr.. Keep is chairman, was
made by the secretary of agriculture,
who. in his letter to the President,
smoke of the steady improvement IN
the methods of estimating crops n
aid that, Notwithstanding these I'M
movements, it was not unlikely that
if an outside commission should look
over the system with care it might be
able to make recommendations or VAL
lie. These improvements already made
are fully recognized by the commission
and in their report it is stated that a
reorganization of the bureau OF sIa-
tistics has been begun by the depart
ment, and that some OF the changes
suggested in this report, were either
contemplated or actually begun before
the investigation was undertaken.
The report of the committee &C.
Scribes in detail the methods followed
by the bureau of statistics IN making
its crop estimates Of acreage, cohdl-
ton and yield. For the cotton crop
alone the bureau of statistics has upon
its list of correspondents nearly 3d.
600 persons, classified as follows:
Travelling agents, 3: state agent and
their sub-correspOndents, 4,OOO; coun-
" correspondents, 800; township cor
RESPONDENTS. 10000; individual tar
mers, $4,000; special correspondents
10000.
The report refers to the safeguards
to nrevent leaks. which have been inn
nroved upon and materially changed
since the cotton leak of last July, anc
since the establishment Of the new
hoard OF crop estimates organized Dy
Assistant Secretary Hayes. The con'
mission says that it is difficult TO SET
how the system now in force can DE-
improved upon In this respect n they
have no suggestions to o1er. Inc re
mort describes in detail the maj pro
cess in the making of a crOp estlnla'e
The four members of the crop estlnlat
ing board meet in a closed ROOF am
to them are brought the reports OF tn
travelling agents and state agent
which have been sealed and unopene'
in the safe OF the secretary OF agrlcul
+ure. The tabulated reports from N
other classes of correspondents, are al
so brought before the board. Eacn U
the four members of the crop estlmat
ing board with the percentage hSur
given by each class OF correspondent
for each state, exercises his WI Judg
ment separately and without consul
tation with his associates and adop
q crop condition figure for eacn state
EXPRESSING such judgment. II an
namber of the board differs materlall
or any statement from the other tire
members he is called upon for his 1ea
sons and the board as a whole, Pre-
sided over by the assistant secretar
of agriculture, then adopts, after az
cussion. a figure for each state. IN
renort amphasizes the fact that N
fo,re Tins reached is not the result {
= mathematical computation, out
reached by the exercise OF udgme
The report says that great streS
has been laid in the past on the nun
her of independent sources 1roi
which the bureau of statistics mas OF
+ainad it's information. In the Juds
ment of the commission it does N
add authority to the estimates on IN
cotton crop by the bureau to state IN.
has been sought from 50
600 different people. Inc lmihehS
number OF correspondents raises
presumption against care IN seiectlo
and knowledge by the bureau OF statE
tics of the persons from wnom II =
ceives it's reports. Inspection or II
tabulated results, as laid before u
committee in their investigator
leads them to the conclusion that II
sending out of blank forms TO all
these persons, the receipt or tnelr ;
niles. and the immense labor OF tab
1ating these replies, involves expen'
from which no equivalent benefit is r
ceived. The information principal
relied upon lis contained in the repor
of the travelling field agents, and sta
agents. IL these two sources OF INTO
nation agree, little attention is pa