The daily morning journal and courier., 1906-08-25
NOT sAFE "A PROPHEsY.

l Oi0l statement IaS any value eG- cept as rhetorical phrase to call att tention to some marked similarity or dlsslmllarity in events. Ever since |Plutarch showed us how easy and in- teresting 1t is, we have been using the 1allaclous method of historic parallels. It is very convenient to the student of history, but altogether misleading to | the men who are actively engaged in making history. Like causes do not produce like effects in practical poli- ties, because what we call Hike caus- es" are generally casual resemblances between certain conspicuous but often Insignificant factors,
 | None of us can altogether escape the temptation to use historic paralelism as a substitute for hard thinking and real investigation in the case of the revolution-or what we hope will prove to be the revolution-in Russia But it is already clear that the analogy with the French revolution has been confus- ing rather than enlightening to us spectators, as apparently it has been also to the Russian actors in the dra- ma, There was the Duma; was 1t not just like the States-General? And did it not meet in May, too Startling coin- cidence)l There were the Constitu- tional Democrats for the Girondists and the Group of Toil for the Moun- tain, When they found the doors closed against them by orders of the sovereign they knew exactly what to do. As though it were a play they had rehearsel they made tennis court out of the dining room in the hotel at Vi- borg, and reassembling there, took the oath to stand by each other and the people, just as the Third Estate did one hundred years before. And what next? A glance at the prompt-book showed them that the taking of ths Bastile was next in order. On to Kronstadt, then!
 But just here something went wrong. The government had apparently turned over too many leaves and got the wrong cut. They had skipped six years; it was the 18th of Vendemaire instead of the 14th of July, and they dispersed the mob with Napoleon's whiff of grapeshot. The difficulty was that Nicholas II had also read history and had a manifest unwillingness to play the role of Louis XVI Here, then our analogy breaks down, just when we need 1t most.
 But before we take leave of it, there is one lesson which we may legitimate ly draw from 1t; that Is, the lesson of patience. Tn spite of all our memoriz- ing of dates, we really have the i'm pression that the French revolution was over in about six weeks, and that it moved smoothly like some majestic river, to It's inevitable" end How haphazard, baff1ing and uncertain it really appeared to those who were in it we can realize only by much reading of memoirs and letters. Our philosophi- cal historians n1islead us in this. It was four years before the French got rid of their king and fifty-nine years before a genuine republic was estab- lished. If, then, the Russians have done away with the Czar by 1910, and have a good popular government by 1865, We may congratulate them on do- ing as we'll as did their prototypes and allies, tha French.
 If we drop such superficial compari- sons and take broader view of histo- ry, we can derive encouragement in this crisis from the observation that a French revolution is not the only or the best way to attain liberty All other European peoples, except the Turks and the Russians, have now substantially the same political rights as the French and none of them has passed through 8 crisis resembling the Reign of Terror and Napoleon's Epoch.
 We can palIiate these periods of , blood and tyranny because we can see the good that resulted from them. The depressing thing about the present , Russian situation is the apparent fruitlessness of the period of blood and tyranny through which they have passed. For all their self-sacrifce and heroism Russian people now seem fur , ther from liberty than they were six months ago. We are promised agrari- an riots in the fall, but will these not be ts fruitless as the French lacquer
 ies of the fourteenth century? The . revolutionists have proved that they can burn down haystacks and manors, seize battleships and fortresses, assas- sinate officials, print and distribute prohibited literature, paralyze indus try, commerce and communication by [ strikes Baricade the streets and make , and throw bombs, but to what good? l And suppose they do all these things again in a few months, what reason is
 there for thinking that they will be any more successful? We used to hear that Russia was one vast powder mag azine, and only wanted spark to set it off We'll, there have been sparks | enough of late.
 Apparently, the bureaucracy has, 3 from it's short-sghted point of view, - managed things very skillfuly and ob-
 tained tactical advantage. The 5 Duma was allowed to meet and talk ? long enough to show the futility of meeting and talking and then quietly l dismissed, according to the forms of law. The radical members alienated 3 the more conservative reforners in the Duma by their extreme measures and violent language, and now they have
 gone home they are being horse : whipped by their peasant constituents
 for not getting them land. The call for a general strike was not obeyed, and the revolutionary leaders are dis credited. The mutinous sailors and soldiers were fired upon by their com- rades. The bureaucracy has adopted
 the tactics of the enemy and Is fight ing fire with fire. The "Black Hun