The Minneapolis journal., 1906-05-27
THE CROP SCARE SEASON

q AAA'JoAAoy VI SoS0oJ tucy dIc luuuOACOu
in their statements, subconsciously, by
inward bias OF predisposition.' There
are men in Minneapolis whose expert
ence In the grain trade goes back over
long period Of years, who know prac-
tically as much about wheat !, as the
farmer, and commercially as much as
can be learned in daily practice, who
are competent in everything that per-
tains to the business Of producing or
marketing grain, who never can be
made to admit that anything is wrong
with the crop. They hold out against
all reports and are convinced only when
final returns are in. These men are
usually the operators of country eleva-
tors. Their business it is to handle the
CROP Like the railroad men, they want
big crop. The wish becomes father
to the thought and sometimes they see
a promise never really there. -
There are others who are natural
alarmists. For the most part they are
men concerned with the trade in fu-
lures, or the most speculative end of
the business-but not always SO. That
there are some dishonest men in the
markets, who deliberately falsify re-
ports for manipulative purposes is true,
but there are not ny.--Usually such
man comes to grief. It is question
Of time only until he becomes found
out and is generally discredited. Then
his opinions have no weight at all.
There is good deal Of loose talk about
the market manipulators and estimators
Of the wheat market. Most Of it is
wholly unwarranted. There is as much
honesty in the grain trade as in any
commercial line, and this applies to all
branches of it. The man who goes
wrong in the trade or who, being crook
ed in a sort of sly way, manages to re-
main in it and prosper, is no more nu-
merous relatively than his prototype in
the banks, in jobbing, manufacturing,
or insurance. Because Of the semi
speculative nature Of the business,
there is much false conception about it,
but if there is place in the business
world where a man has got to be con-
sidered on the square in order to get
recognition it is the floor of the grain
exchange.
It is hard thing for the ordinary
reader. to understand this when he sees
it reported one day that the crop Of
Kansas is half gone, and the next day
sees an estimate THAT. that state will
have more wheat than last : year,. 81
when two men equally veracious differ
by millions of bushels in their estimate
of what Minnesota or North Dakota
| will do, or Of the effect of drought, or
excess moisture upon particular To-
cality.
If the all-overshadowing, the over
| whelming Importance Of the crop out
turn would be remembered, this would
not seem so extraordinary. When it
| comes to question Of relative impor-
tance all that politics and society pre-
sent falls into insignifcance beside the
| crops. If an agricultural country does
to the bad, and there is no getting away
| from it.
| Naturally, every man who is in busi-
ness is interested in some degree in the
crops, and when it comes to those whose
business is of the crops direct, this in
terest becomes intense. Every member
of a firm, every clerk or travelling man
or station agent, every country banker
and storekeeper, watches the fields and
if he sees a bumper crop he sends in
word to his friends and If he sees the
crop going to ruin he sends that in, and
very often he is not competent to pass
final judgment in either case. Then
there is the professional crop estimator,
who has to cover vast stretches of
country in limited time, exercise his
| Judgment as best he can and send in
reports, knowing that however they
may run, hostile criticism awaits, for
| there are sure to be those whose mar.
ket interests will be affected in any
case. -.... .... .... ..
This is the season of the crop report
and the crop scare. The winter wheat
fields Of the southwest had a drought
under way, when the rain came and
and spread over too much territory and
the spring wheat has excess moisture
The Red River valley is very wet, and
all southern Minnesota and northern
Iowa would be the better for dry
4 weather. More rain will start cry of
damage. Already reports are in, that
conflict. Some see damage already.
| Others see a situation not favorable
but likely to right itself quickly when
| the weather turns better.
Next week will bring a, better view
Of it. Meanwhile if the farmer who
sees his land wet and soggy and fears
that all is lost, sends in his honest re-
port that he believes the crop is ruined
let us not be too quick to take it too
seriously, but let us remember that
grain stands much punishment and
spring wheat is an especially hardy
! nlant.