New-York tribune., 1906-01-19
HITS CROP REPORTS.
REFORMS SUGGESTED.
Findings of Keep Commission Sub
mitted TO the President.

,tor+ socretarv Of the Treasury and chairman
of the so-calIed Keep commission on depar'ti
methods has submitted TO the President 'lls ttnd
MISSIONS report OF its investigation or the
anon1oved bv the Bureau of Statistics OF tio
psrtrrent OF Agriculture in estimating e'VP'
especially the cotton crop. ,..,,r
In referring this subject TO the Keep co''iiN-
the President called particular attention 20 d Ios
1utfon which in September last was adopted pS
the New En- gland Cotton Manufacturers Aso t,
tion bringing into serious question the tlu
ness Of the government crop reports siu a'N-i'7
that the matter be Investigated by competent coH
mission The suggestion that the subject be re-
ferred TO the commission OF which Mr. Keep Is
chairman was made by the Secretary OF Astf
culture who, in his letter TO the President spoke
OF the steady improvement in the methods ol
estimating crops, and said that, notwithstailoihs
these improvements. it not unlikely that IL an
outside commission should look over the system
with care 1t might be able TO make reconliiehu@
tions of value. The improvements already haae
are fully recognized by the commission. and IN the
report It is stated that reorganization Oh lle
Bureau of Statistics has been begun by the oe-
partment, and that some of the changes suggested
this report either contemplated or actuaiy
begun before the investigation was undertaken.
METHODS OF MAKING ESTIMATES.
The report describes in detail the method fol-
lowed by the Bureau of Statistics In making It's
crop estimates of acreage condition and yield For
the cotton crop alone the bureau has its list OF
correspondents nearly 65 coo persons. classified as
fOllOWS: travelling agents, - state agents anu
their sub-correspondents 1000; county correspond
ents, 800; township correspondents, 1900; in
dividual farmers. 5000; special correspondents,
5000 The report refers 10 the safeguards TO
prevent leaks. which have been improved and
materially changed since the cotton leak Of last
July and since the establishment of the new
board Of crop estimates organized by Assistant
Secretary Hays. The report says 1t is difficult to
see how the system now in force be improved
IN this respect, and suggestions are offered
ha n
the making of crop estimate. The four members
of the crop estimating board meet in q closed
ROOM and TO them are brought the reports OF the
travelling and State agents which have been sealed
and unopened in the safe of the Secretary Of Agrt
culture The tabulated reports from the other
classes of correspondents also brought before
the board Each of the four members of the crop
estimating board, with the percentage figure given
by each class Of correspondents for each State, ex
ercises his own judgment separately, and without
consultation with his associates and adopts a crop
condition figure for each State, expressing such
Judgment. If any member of the board differs
materially on any State from the three other MEM
bers, he is asked to give his reasons, and the
board as a whole, presided by the Assistant
Secretary of Agriculture. then adopts, after dis
cussion. figure for each State The report em-
phasizes the fact that the figure thus reached is
not the result of mathematical computation, but
is reached by the exercise of Judgment.
The report says that great stress has been laid
in the past the number of Independent sources
from which the Bureau Of Statistics has obtained
its Information. In the judgment of the commit
tee it does not add authority to the estimates
the cotton crop by the bureau TO state that infor-
nation has been sought from 65 600 different per-
sons The immense number of correspondents
raises presumption against care in selection and
knowledge by the Bureau OF Statistics OF the per-
sons from whom 1t receives It's reports. Inspection
Of the tabulated results. laid before the
mittee In its Investigations, leads TO the conclu
sion that the sending out of blank forms to all
these persons the receipt of their replies and the
immense labor OF tabulating, the replies involve
expense from which equivalent benefit is
ceved- The information principally relied upon
is contained In the reports of the travelling field
agents and State agents. If these two sources of
information agree. little attention is paid to diver
gent opinion the part Of the other correspond
ents In other words, the bureau relies upon the
reports made to it by persons in its employ and
to whom it pays salaries These reports much
less affected by biassed and made under
feeling of responsibility TO the government which
! the unpaid observer does not have,
| The report contains many tables comparing the
| estimates of acreage and production of various
crops, as made by the Bureau of Statistics with
! the results reached in decennial years by the
| Census Bureau in which the wide divergence
! of the results reached by the two government
| offices. is clearly brought out. In making these
! comparisons between the figures of the Bureau of
Statistics and the Census Bureau, It is considered
| that as between estimate and tho result of an
| enumeration greater authority attaches to the
| enumeration This does not mean that the census
| figures in cases inaccurate. but
simply that other standard of comparison exists.
! The Emergencies between the results found are
so great that considerable errors In the returns
| from the would not affect the conclusions
| of the report.
NEED OF GREAT IMPROVEMENT.
The report says that in every instance. except in
! the case Of three cotton reports in the last six
| years the Bureau OF Statistics figures have been
underest1mates. The Understanding has been
| especially great in the of cereal crops and
livestock The conclusion Of the commission is that
! the methods OF the Bureau Of Statistics must be
! greatly improved or the service discontinued
In the case of cotton, although the Bureau Of
Statistics has underestmated the crop In every in
stance. if judged by its reports expressed num-
ber of bales nevertheless If the bales are reduced
pounds OF lint cotton. it appears that out of the
last six reports on cotton yield the Bureau of Sta
tistics has overestmated the crop in three cases
and underestimated it in three cases. The much
criticised cotton crop report of 1904 shows variation
| from the ginning returns obtained by the Census
Bureau of per cent in number Of bales but this
variation is reduced to AS per cent when the bales
| are converted into pounds of lint cotton The
Bureau of Statistics avoid responsibility for
the larger variation since it announced its result in
bales. and not in pounds, and by adopting weight
of bale greater than in any previous year it there
| by reduced the number OF bales in its published
| estimate.
REFORMS RECOMMENDED
| The report makes various suggestions looking to
improvement Of the service. 1t says that crop con-
! ditions should be expressed in percentages with
| out fractions since the of fractions implies
larger measure of accuracy than can be expected
of a mere estimate. and since all the figures on
which the crop estimating board exercises its judg-
ment are in percentages without fractions 1t rec
omuepds that in the case OF cotton. the percentage