The citizen. (Frederick City, Md.) 1895-1923, 1906-04-27
EARTHQUAKE WARNING
DR.. c. Willard Hayes Believes
Shocks Can Be Predicted.
MANY PRBMoNITORY SYMPTOMS
Expert of Geological Survey Says
FOreteIIing Earthquakes Is Merely
a Question of ObServatiOn-SuS-
gests the Establishing of Well
Equipped Stations.

Question of ObservatiOn-Sug-
Equipped Stations.
DR.. C. Willard Hayes, geologist of
the United States geological survey, re-
Gently expressed the opinion that the
time would come when the scientists
would be able TO predict an earthquake
sufficiently in advance of its occur
renee to give warning to persons likely
to be caught by it, says Il Washington
special to the New York Times.
"Of course do not say that it will
come soon" said Dr.. Hayes, but | see
nothing Improbable in the idea at all.
| think it is largely matter of having
a sufficient number of properly equip
ped observation stations, with prompt
and thorough exchange of observa-
tons. Earthquakes are almost invaria-
bly, preceded by premonitory signs and
symptoms. These are now recognized
and recorded But t.ere are not
enough observers engaged in the work
TO make their records and observations
of practical benefit in the way have
Indicated
Fifty years ago the idea that it
would be possible to predict a storm
would have been regarded as prep0s-
ferrous. But with the increase of the
number of weather observers and the
development of their instruments they
have reached the stage of practical GER
tainty. and the service has become Of
immense value throughout the world.
OF course they have had Il great deal
more weather to observe than the ge-
ologists have had earthquakes, and the
scope and thoroughness of their obser-
vatiOns have developed more rapidly
than in the case of seismic disturb
nnces. But | see no reason why, with
proper extension of the field of oh
servatiOns and the proper equipment
Of the observers, there should not re-
suit in Il comparatively few years sub
stantially the ability to foretel for III
appreciable period of time the occnT-
renee of serious earthquakes"
In discussing the shocks which dew
astated San Francisco DR.. Hayes said
that the ultimate cause was undoubt-
edly II deep REIMBURSEMENT of the
earth, manifesting itself upon the sur
face by slip along the line of
fault. These faults occur at various
places upon the carth's crust and are
similar to those found in ore or coal
veins, except that their scale is thou
sands of feet compared to inches in the
mine scale. When for any cause a
deep REIMBURSEMENT takes place the sur
face effect usually follows the line of
fault.
When somebody asked what caused
this deep reimbursement Dr. Hayes
smiled and replied:
THAT is just what the biologists are
asking. Why is what we want to
know. That is the great problem or
one of the great problems that we are
studying all the time. We know that
certain parts of the earth are slowly
going down and other parts are rising.
That has been going on in California.
Only yesterday april 49,, speaking ge-
ologically, the coast line of California
was lifted up to Il considerable extent.
The traces Of the old beach line are
easy to follow, and the fact that the
line has been lifted to different heights
at different places and that in places it
lies at an angle and not horizontally
shows that it was lifted and that it
was not the receding Of the water
which left it there
There are several clearly defined
faults which run near and even
through San Francisco" continued DR..
Hayes. He took Il geological map and
pointed out four or five. The more eX-
tensiye run just south of the city, but
there are two or three which cross the
ground on which the city stood. They
all trend northwest and southeast. in
the direction in which the earthquake
wave is reported to have travelled. The
most pronounced of them passes
through Palo Alto, where violent
shock was felt.
1T may be- said DR.. Hayes, that a
slip occurred somewhere at the upper
or northern end of one of these faults
and, following down to the southeast
produced the shock that destroyed San
Francisco and wrecked Palo Alto
buildings"
OTHER RIG EApT LnIIAEES