The Minneapolis journal. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn.) 1888-1939, 1906-12-10
Would Only Mean the Shifting of
Hedged Wheat from One
Place to Another.
Russian Famine Conditions Pre-
dicted in Journal Advices
of Last June. -"
Government Final Report Today,
Too Late for a Full
Analysis. :

Minneapolis Chamber of Commerce, Dec. 10.
Receipts Of 7O1 cars Of wheat in Minneapolis
today, the largest Of any day since the crop
began to move, had only moderate effect upon
the market. Prices receded and under specu-
lative selling both December and May We're
lower, but this was to be expected. Nothing
developed that could fairly be called weak
ness, and the undertone appeared strong as
ever. There was no good reason why 70l cars
were the figures light by 6s cars compared
with the 100 received this date last year,
but, regardless of comparisons, there was no
reason why the market should have gone down
much, altho, no doubt. some traders expected it.
supply conditions here have been abnormal
The beginning of a return to normal condi-
tions is not bearish.' Wheat never had any
; such advance as the light receipts in Mime
apols would have caused had these receipts
fairly represented crop production. Had the
light movement been only half light, the
speculatively. but for the very reason that
they were extremely small that everyone
knew they could not fairly represent the out
turn, unless, indeed, there had been a great
failure In wheat. and In oats, rye, barley and
fax as WELL the markets moved up responsive
to local supply conditions. but there was no
speculative runaway. Now that there is indi-
cation Of change, and the promise Of larg-
er receipts. it would be short-sighted to look
for decline necessarily to follow. Over ten
million bushels of wheat would have to come
received would be anywhere last years
total to n corresponding time.
Another consideration is the fact that much
wheat not yet received in Minneapolis has al
ready been hedged. In former seasons the
time period between delivery at country sta
ton by the farmer and purchase in Mime
apolis by the miller shorter. Much wheat
would move this way unsold, in that no con-
sumpttve or longtime storage buyer had yet
been found for it, nor had a final hedge been
placed against it. Hence. when 700 1000
it, and as often they bought they sold fu-
lures This year the delay In transportation
was so long and the service generally in
adequate that much of the wheat coming
in has already been sold to arrive or hedged
against. Not much selling is therefore oc-
casioned when it comes in. Had there been
runaway speculative market conditions now
moved up only bit by bit, and having made
the advance to present price levels by small
hut continuous gains. are more likely now to
hold. In every season the price gets close
to commercial basis sooner or later This
year Just as much selling pressure has been
on the market as in any other year.! and the
same things that ordinarily operate for the
finding Of a commercial price basis have been
working, except that the milling Industry has
been handicapped. The railroads have brought
IN less wheat but. in whatever degree the
crop has been marketed in the country, in fist
even tho the wheat did not move in here
Hence, il the railroads bring in more wheat
from now on, that would be reason why the
price should go down. - u .fT..s
= The grain trade is proverbially short Of mem
DRY. The Russian famine is on, and there
can be little doubt that this, the result of
crop failure last summer, is to be an i'm
portant influence for strength in wheat the
world over. Comment is now heard that Rus
STAR news is always unreliable and that pre-
dictions made about that country's production
refer to message sent to tt journal,
on June 8 last, by RolHn E. Smith, who was
then in Odessa, and published as market
feature at that time. 1t said:
THAT there will be very ser1ouS cron
shortage-both wheat and rye-in the eastern
half Of kHssia ~ there re- en- be no question
and extreme south can make up the shortage,
even if present prospects realized. The re-
half Of Russia, there can be no question. 1t
peasants and to business interests. Yet wheat
will be exported from the more fortunate prov
inces just the same as if there were no short
age"
Duluth received 11s cars against 1o2. Chi
cago 81 against 10. Winnipeg 1O3 against 1925.
Kansas City received 221 900 bu against 1853 900
and st. Louis 62.00o against 900.
Liverpool closed 1sd higher to kd lower.
900. Clearances wheat and -four, $4,000 bu.
The visible decreased by ,343 900 bu, bringing
the total down to O,213,OOO.
The government report came along today as
per schedule, but 1t was received too late to
permit of fair analysis. Briefly summarized the
report says the estimate made last December
OF the area sown to winter wheat in 1906 should
have indicated 81 81, 900 acres instead of 81
341, 900 acres. Also that last DEFENDERS esti-
mate Of the area sown to winter rye in 1905
should ~ have aye increased 100000 acres instead
OF l,129,oOO acres. The corrected figures are
used as basis in computing the area sown to
each crop this fall. The newly seeded area
OF winter wheat is estimated as being IL per
cent greater than the area sown in the fall
OF 1908, equivalent to an increase of 1853, 600
acres and total acreage Of 31,665, 900. The
condition Of winter wheat on Dec. 1 was "a i
against 81 on Dec. !, 1905, $40 in 1904 and
a nine-year average of 929. Wheat acreage is
81, 665, 900 acres. This indicates a total win
ter wheat crop Of SOC, $40 900 bu OF about
100000 bu greater than the December indica-
ton Of year ago.