New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1906-09-20
LONG RANCE FORECASTS

Professor Moore, Chief of the United States
Weather Bureau announces that he shall soon
initiate tho new service which he promised
several months ago. Tests made during the
summer have satisfied him OF the feasibility of
a plan proposed by Professor GarrfOtt, and
accordingly he will give the public the benefit
OF that system. A modest beginning is pro-
posed. the forecasts at first covering only short
periods-nOt exceeding a week, perhaps. Even
these IL substantially accurate three times out
of four will certainly prove extremely valuable
But If the venture is reasonably successful, it
is Professor MOOre's intention 10 extend tho
range of the predictions so as 10 suggest the
general character of coming seasons.
Whether or not satisfactory results can be
obtained from the method which has been
adopted, II has at least a rational basis. The
principle is now recognized that most Of the
meteorological phenomena of which il is desir-
able TO nave advance notice come from inc
qualities in atmospheric pressure Air flows
from high" to a "low" and the relative posi-
tons Of the two control the direction of the
wind. and hence 10 some extent temperature
and rainfall Those depressiOns and high press
ure areas which are in almost constant mo-
ton, and whose course is generally eastward.
have hitherto occupied the attention OF the
forecaster almost exclusively. because they
are more obvious than anything else There
are other high and low areas. however, which
remain nearly stationary for weeks or months
at time. departing, however, more or less
from their average positions and betraving
other abnormal traits which the expert can
recognize. The Washington bureau having on
larged It's facilities so 20 include telegraphic
reports from widely distributed points I'm the
Northern Hemisphere believes that il can now
turn this information TO account in Judging
or the character Of the conditions which are
dominated by these "sub-permanent" factors
Professor Moore takes occasion TO say tbot
he Is not at present aiming TO utilize Observa
tons OF solar changes The suspicion has long
been entertained that there Is a relation be-
tween the magnetic influence of the sin and
terrestrial weather. Within the last two or
three years lively interest has been excited
by another possible clew to the mystery Of hot.
and cold winters. With apparatus of marvaI
lous sensibility which the late Professor Lang
ley perfected an elaborate effort is now heins
made to discover whether or not there are onv
conspicuous fluctuations in the quantity OF hear
emitted by the sun. 1t is TO both of these
nhes or inquiry. no doubt, that Professor
Moore refers. His statement however &c NOT
TO be Interpreted by the public as 4 condenno-
ton or either class of investigation or an ev
preston Of his opinion regarding IFS useful
ness and pertinence II is StiI permissible IN
thlnk that variations in the suns radiation
mag underlie the peculiarties of atmosDberic
distribution which seem 10 he the immediate
cause or the changes TO which the Weather
bureau Will now give special study. If tbev
40 the une Will come when it will prove DroF
liable 10 keep closer watch of sofa, accep+r;oi
tee