The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1906-12-09

~ AVAFft z ~W. a#."taHa HHrHU IT,
Just A. fast a. people move out Of this
borough others viii come TO take their
places, and more. too. There 10 nothing in
the world that. can stop the growth OF this
great city.
The movement to New Jersey, n II takes
place, as It undoubtedly will, will be but a
fiea bite. The city is too big to mind a
little thing like that, People are pouring
here from all quarters Of the globe and New
York 10 now the real financial and COM
mercial centre Of the world.
"Of course the solution Of the trafic
problem grows more difficult every year
and IL looks as though the operating COM
panies and the city itself would never catch
up with the demand. Within the last
year or two we have had a four tracked sub
way with enormous carrying capacity
opened right through the heart OF the city,
and yet I venture to say that IL is just a.
hard now as ever it was to get a seat in a
surface car or upon the elevated, especially
in rush hours.
But the people will find a way to get
around. The more the difficulty Of riding
about the more they flock here from the
districts outside.
The privilege OF living in New York Ia
considered to be above any inconvenience
that may result from inadequate transporta-
ton facilities. At least l look at Il in that
way and ! guess many others do
Tho assistant chief engineer, who fire.
quently takes a peep into the future popula-
tionwsrd so that the New York Telephone
Company may know how to provide for
its coming needs, said he had made no
particular study as TO the growth Of the
population of the city proper as a separate
proposition. The basis used in making
the computation for the company was the
metropolitan district.
According to the studies he had made this
district will have a population Of S,OO0,O 600
in 1920. He does not think, however, that
the city proper will have caught up to Lon
don in population at that time.
There will in all likelihood still be a
shade of difference in favor of the English
capital" said he, "and our estimates do
not extend beyond 1920.
"Our calculations relative to the popula-
ton within eighteen miles Of the City Hall
produced these statistics In 1870 it was
l.sso,OO0; in 1880, 1900 600, an increase OF
80 $40 per cent in 1890 il was 9,27S,0OO an
increase Of SO s-l0 per cent, and in 1900 it
was 1885, 900, a gain Of 80 45-lOo per cent.
III view Oh Vie bldLiStlCt, anu dIteT COn-
sulting every available source OF informa-
ton, the telephone company made this
forecast. Within New York city and within
a radius Of eighteen miles from the City
Hall there will be by 1920 a population Of
s,OOe,OOO. Our figures for Greater New York
would indicate a population OF 100000
by the year 1920"
Register Guilfoy OF the Department Of
ILL., 49,. A. -.sALs- --A
thirty-four years, possibly sooner, the
population of Greater New York will be
three times what il is to-day. He also be-
heves that the population will be doubled
by 1927.
DR.. Guilfoy's figures show that the growth
Of the city annually is 3.lS per cent. oom-
pounded. The population Of the greater
city on June /, 1905, was 4,0l4,S04. On
June l, 1910, the population should have
increased 10 loo, 900.
According TO the Registers estimates.
the natural and healthful growth at this
ratio of percentage should give New York
in 1927 a population of more than 5000 200, and
in 1910 there should be slightly more than
l., 900, 900 people living here. DR.. Guilfoy
believes that there is an excellent chance
that this huge total will be reached much
sooner tndu JOe ThJiO WOulu luulChJe,
The average death rate for the five years
I9OO-05 was l9.4O a thousand, while for the
year ending June 1, 1908. il was only IL per
cent. If this death rate is maintained or
lowered, as seems probable, the gain in
population would be 1.4O in 1000. This
would mean that the city's population
would be doubled a year earlier than the
date given in DR.. Guilfoy's estimate.
While the race for supremacy in popula-
ton seems to lie exclusively between New
York and London. Herr Olumke, a noted
statistician, declares that Berlin will fifty
years from now be the largest city in the
world. He calculates hat its population
will be nearly $4,000 900, and that it will
have no serious iva except New York.
In a pamphlet he has written to set forth
this theory Herr Olumke says that the
population of Berlin is increasing faster
than any other city except Budapest. Hun
gary. To-day Greater Berlin contains
more than 5000. 900 inhabitants. The rapid
growth, with Berlin's political and CONNER
Cial Importance, will place the Prussian
capital ahead Of London, Paris n New
VII