The Minneapolis journal. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn.) 1888-1939, 1906-04-02
Export Business at Montreal and
Other Bull Items Have but
Little Effect.
The Trade Realizes That It Is
aeculation Now That
Will Count.
Whether or Not Chicago Sells
MAY Will Tell the Story
of Price.

Minneapolis Chamber Of Commerce, April D.
Fine weather and continued favorable crop re-
ports had little early effect upon wheat prices,
the trade having become used to spring weather
and refusing to be Influenced More attention
was given the table of worlds shipments. and
since Broomhall had estimated 1t to show
1900, 900 bu, and it actually showed but $685.
000 which looked light also by comparison with
1852, 900 bu in the week previous, the bulls
made something out of it. Just wherein it was
bullish 1t was hard to see, for while Russia fell
off In shipments. America fell off also, and other
competing countries held up well. The quantity
of breadstuffs afoat for Europe, with an increase
for the week of ,2S2 900 bu, passed the 5O,UOO,-
geo level and showed 80 752oO5 bu in all. The
general situation in short, as the week opened,
was bearish. In Minneapolis there were 646 cars
against 400 year ago. and the elevator stocks
have increased Is, 600 bu for two days.. 1t is
true that Chicago is strong. but much doubt is
expressed to whether or not the Chicago bulls
are sincere in their talk Of squeeze III May
S It is from Chicago that the bull news Is COM
ing, and some Of it looks like the genuine thing
For instance, Patten wired j. d. Fraser this
morning that prominent Montreal exporter was
In Chicago and said that on Saturday he had
sold wheat for export to France and Germany
that in fact he has been doing export business
for ten days and that indications are for con-
tinued demand. This is legitimate bull news
Any time that an important export business can
be found in wheat 1t is bull news, and, since
the American exportable surplus and that OF
Canada bear alike the foreign markets. it
really matters little for final results whether it
is sold above the line on side. Neverthe-
Less this is not the important question at pres
ent from the speculative standpoint. The Ques-
ton is, what the Chicago longs in May
wheat going to do about It? Suppose for the
sake of argument that Montreal exporter had
really sold big quantity-say even 100000
or 5000, 600 bu-for export, and suppose that
our own clearances last week had been 8, O00, 900
or 1900 900 instead of the 1,S72,00O actually
shown this would not change the situation.
S These would be the finest kind of bull items,
but the fact would remain that there are large
speculative holdings of long wheat for May de-
3 livery in Chicago. There Is much wheat
short there Is long The shorts have profits
of 2@7c bushel, and the longs have losses Of
2@7c. The odds against the longs. 1t Is
April 2, stocks large, plenty of wheat Is
moving to market and the crop conditions
are fine. The longs, If they decide to take de-
livery of their wheat, might run the shorts in
and the market might rise DC &c. If they
do not want delivery Of the wheat they will
have to sell 1t out before May T. unless Provi-
dence sends some change in the weather to help
I them. This then is the situation purely
speculative and that is why strictly legitimate
bull arguments that some time ago when export
business the first consideration might have
had great effect, of secondary Importance
now May wheat is either going to be taken
over and merchandised. or it is going to be
INUNDATED. and that is the uncertainty Of the
day. The longs might put their May holdings
over into July, and they might work out Of
May without any big smash in prices, but with
present new crop prospects there would be
nothing bullish i'll such changing over.
Duluth got 81 today against TO- an6
other comparisons We're and 81 for Chicago
% and 10 for Winnipeg "a 1000 bu and 3S, 0Ot
for Kansas City and 5000 and &c. 600 for St
Louis. Stocks at Fort William and Port Arthu,
increased last week by 256, 124 bu, and the
present total is S1O57s7 bu against G, 1853, 593.