The Aberdeen weekly. [volume] (Aberdeen, Miss.) 1878-1933, 1906-11-02
The Cotton Crop.

Yesterday the Census Bureau issued
third report of the present season,
showing the amount of Cotton ginned
to October is. This report was look
ed forward to with keen interest, be
cause it was believed that it would
afford the cotton trade a more or less
valuable line on the probable outcome
Of the crop as whole. Now that the
report has been issued, it is realized
that it leaves the question of the size
of the crop as much involved as ever
before.
According to the report 100000
bales had been ginned i'm round fig
ures up to October IS as compared TO
f 999 900 bales up to the correspond
ing date last year. Without refer
ence to other facts than the mere size
of the figures, the report would seem
to point to a crop Of about the same
number of bales as last year. No
body believes anything of the sort,
however. On September % the gins
were several hundred thousand bales
short of the preceding year in their
ginnings. This backwardness was at
trbuted to the fact that the crop was
very late in the eastern section Of the
Cotton Belt. Owing to the circum-
stances that the period since the date
covered bv the earlier report includes
the time of the tropical storm and the
bad weather which followed 1t, IT was
generally held that if the gins did as
well as they did during the same mum
Der of days in 1905 they would be do
ing all that could be reasonably eX-
pected, and more. The actual figures
made public yesterday show that not
withstanding the bad weather the
gins actually turned out so much more
cotton than during the corresponding
number of days last year that the
shortage existing three weeks ago
was very nearly made good despite
the fact, too, that a less number of
gins were in operation than last year.
This showing does not Indicate the
/ size of the crop by amy means, but II
does prove that great activity has
prevailed in the country. and that the
severe weather has placed fewer OBJ
! stacles in the way of harvesting the
crop than was supposed. Some peO-
I pie are also disposed to argue from
+ the same facts that the storms did
actually less damage than was re-
ported, although the report itself does
not warrant that assumption.
/ 1t is an old saying that crop Is
/ not made until it is harvested, and il
I Il
/ Is not determined until the last bale
/ is counted Last years experience
proved a s2lutary lesson in this re
spect Despite the estimates by the
/ Government and a score of authOrl-
ties, and IN spite, too, of the carry
ginners' reports issued by the Census,
the crop was underestimate indica-
ting clearly that neither early esu-
mates nor early Census reports are IN
any way reliable guides to the true
size of the crop.
If there Is a pretense at the begin
ming of the season to underestimate
cotton crops. there is even greater
prOneness to underestimate cOnsump-
ton In all but a very few years the
consumption of raw cotton has ex-
/ ceeded the early estimates, showing
clearly that the requirements of the
world have fully Overtaken prOduc-
ton and have kept within bounds
only by the higher prices eXacted for
the raw material. Mr.. Ellison now
/ estimates that the world will require
I this year Il, 100, 600 bales. On the ba-
| sis Of past experience II is perfectly
safe to add from 400, 600 to 500, 600
bales 20 this estimate With that ad-
dition. which leaves but little margin
for putting away surplus stocks. there
ought to be no fear of any but pay
/ ing prices for producers of cotton, no
matter what the crop may turn out
to be, even should it reach Mr.. Bus
tons figure of Is, 600, 600 bales which
it will not, as that gentleman, look
ing at the crop entirely through spin
uersf spectacles, generally OVershOOtS
the mark by a good margin. 1t would
really seem TO be a more profitable
occupation this season to closely
study consumption than to bother
about the production.-New Orleans
Picavune, Oct. 26.