The Birmingham age-herald. [volume] (Birmingham, Ala.) 1902-1950, 1906-01-19
KEEP OFFERS SOME
GOOD SUGGESTIONS
Tells How Cotton Estimates Are
Made by Bureau
MONEY COULD BE SAVED
Will Give More to Travelling Field
Agents and Not So Much to the
Precinct Correspond
ents.
MONEY COULD BE SAVED

Washington, January 1s.-Charies Hal
lam Keep, assistant secretary of the
treasury. and chairman of the so-called
Keep commission on department methods,
has submitted to the President the COM
missions report of it's investigation of the
methods employed by the bureau of statis-
ties of the department of agriculture in
estimating crops, and especially the cot
ton crop.
In referring this matter to the Keep
commission the President called partlcu-
lar attention to a resolution which in
September last was adopted by the New
England Cotton Manufacturers associa-
ton, bringing into serious question the
reliability of the government crop re-
ports, and asking that the matter be In
vestigated by competent commission
The report of the commission describes
In detail the method followed by the
bureau of statistics in making its crop
estimates Of acreage condition and yield.
For the cotton crop alone the bureau
of statistics has upon Its list of cores
pondents nearly $1,000 persons classified
as follows:
Travelling agents. three state agents
and their ub-correspondents, 1000; county
correspondents, 800; township correspond
ents, 1900; individual farmers, $1,000;
special correspondents, 10000
Safeguards Against Leaks.
| The report refers to the safeguards to
prevent leaks which have been improved
on, and materially changed since the cot
ton leak of last July, and since the estab-
lishment of the new board of crop esti-
mates organized by Assistant Secretary
Hayes. The commission says that it is
difficult to see how the system now In
force can be improved upon in this re-
spect, and they have no suggestions to
offer. The report describes in detail the
| final process in the making of a crop
estimate. The four members of the crop
estimating board meet in a closed room,
and to them are brought the reports of
the travelling agents and state agents
which have been kept sealed and I'M
opened in the safe of the Secretary of
Agriculture. The tabulated reports from
the other classes of correspondents are
also brought before the board. Each OF
the four members of the crop estimating
board with the percentage figure given
by each class OF correspondents for each
state. exercises his own Judgment sep
arately and without consultation with his
associates, and adopts a crop condition
figuring for each state expressing such
judgment. If any member OF the board
differs materially on any state from the
other three members, he is called on for
his reasons, and the board as whole
presided over by the assistant secretary
of agriculture, then adopts after discus
sion, figure for each state
The report emphasizes the fact that the
| figures thus reached are not the result
of a mathematical computation but are
reached by 1.-THE exercise of judgment"
Depends on Travelling Agents.
| The report says that great stress has
been laid in the past on the number OF
| important sources from which the bu-
reau of statistics has obtained its inform
alton. In the Judgment of the committee
1t does not add authority to the estimates
on the cotton crop by the bureau to state
that information has been sought from
5000 different persons. The information
| principally relied on, Is contained in the
reports of the travelling field agents, and
state agents. If these two sources OF in
formation agree, little attention is paid
to divergent opinions on the part of other
correspondents.
The report says that In every instance
except in the case of three cotton reports
in the last six years the bureau of sta
| tistics estimates have been under-esti-
mates. In the case of cotton, although
the bureau of statistics has under-esti-
mated the crop in every instance, If
Judged by its reports expressed in num-
1 hAa A4 .1,,
are reduced to pounds of lint cotton 1t
appears that out of tho six last reports
on cotton yield the bureau of statistics
has over-estmated the crop in three cases
and underestimate In three.
Suggestions for Improvements.
The report makes various suggestions
looking to improvement Of the service.
1t recommends that in the case OF cotton
the percentage figure of condition be con-
verified into bales of indicated weight by
a well known commercial formula. 1t
recommends the transfer OF the detern1i
nation of the cotton acreage from the
bureau of statistics to the bureau OF CEN
| sus. A large dlminution in the number
! of the correspondents of the bureau Is
also recommended. The committee urges
| that no further returns on cotton be asked
| for from township correspondents, indi-
vidual farmers and ginners, and that the
money thus saved be utilized in proving
| the state organizations
The state agents salaries should be In
| creased and they should be allowed trav-
cling expenses SO as to select their sub
| correspondents by personal contract, In
stead of by system of letters and dis
| tribution. The state agents should be In
spected by an inspector from the Wash
| ington office, so that the methods OF doing
the work can be carefully observed. The
number of travelling field agents OF the
department should be sufficient to cover
every part of their territory each month.
An important recommendation OF the re-
port is that the bureau OF statistics In the
case OF cotton confined IT'S work to its
monlnly reports, expressing the condition
OF the growing crop during the growing
season Not only should the acreage
planted be determined by the census bu-
reau by a process Of enumeration, but the
ginning statistics OF the census should be
the only government reports on yield of
cotton. The bureau of statistics now puts
out its report on cotton yield about the
E3rd of December BY December 90 the
ginning statistics cover 80 per cent of the
crop, and a more accurate estimate OF the
total crop can be made from these figures
than from the estimates of the bureau.
Discussing the ginning statistics of the
census bureau, the committee says that
| the early reports of ginning cover so
small a proportion of the crop as to be
without value. 1t recommends that no