The citizen. (Frederick City, Md.) 1895-1923, 1906-04-27
EARTHQUAKE WARNING
DIR. c. Willard Hayes Believes
Shocks Can Be Predicted.
MANY PREMONITORY SYMPTOMS


IA Question of ObServatiOn-SuS-
..eSts the Establishing of Well
Equipped stations.
DR.. c. Willard Hayes, geologist OF
the United states geological survey, re-
Gently expressed the opinion that the
time would come when the scientists
would be able TO predict an earthquake
sufficiently in advance Of its occur
renee to give warning to persons likely
to be caught by it, says Washington
special to the New York Times.
"Of course | do not say that it Will
come soon" said DR.. Hayes, but see
nothing Improbable. in the idea at all.
| think it is largely matter of having
Il sufficient number of properly equip
| ped observation stations with prompt
ANA thorough exchange of observa-
tons. Earthquakes are almost invaria-
bly, preceded by premonitory signs and
symptoms These are now recognized
and recorded But t.cre are not
enough observers engaged in the work
! TO make their records and observations
of practical benefit in the way | have
Indicated.
FIFTY yclrs ago the idea that it
would DE possible TO predict storm
would lave been regarded rs prepos-
ferrous. But with the increase of the
number OF weather Observers ana the
development Of their Instruments they
have reached the stage of practical GER
taiuty and The service has become Of
immense value throughout the world
or course they have had Il great deal
more weather to observe than the ge-
olo2i$ts nave had earthquakes, and the
scope and thOroughneSs of their ObSer-
vatiOus have developed more rapidly
than in The case of seismic disturb
nnceS. But see no reason why, with
Il proper extension of the field of oh
seryuti0ns and the proper equipment
Of the observers, there should not re-
suit in 4 comparatively few years sub
stantially the ability to foretcll for IN
appreciablc period Of time the Occur
renee of serious earthquakes
In discussing the shocks which dev-
astatcd san Francisco DR.. Hayes said
that the ultimate cause was undOubt-
| edly II deep REIMBURSEMENT of the
| earth, manifesting itself upon the sur
face by Il slip along the line of a
fault These faults occur at various
places upon the carth's crust and are
similar to those found in ore or coal
veins, except that their scale is thou
sands of feet compared to inches in the
mine scale. When for any cause Il
deep REIMBURSEMENT takes place the sur
face effect usually follows the line of Il
| fault
When somebody asked what caused
this deep reimbursement Dr. Hayes
smiled and replied;
THAT is just what the biologists are
| asking. Why is what we want to
know. That is the great problem or
one of the great problems that we are
studying all the time. We know that
certain parts of the earth are slowly
going down and other parts are rising.
Only yesterday april 49,, speaking ge-
ologically, the coast line of California
was lifted up to Il considerable extent,
| The traces of the old beach line are
easy to follow, and the fact that the
line has been lifted to different heights
at different places and that in places il
lies ut an angle and not horizontally
! shows that it was lifted and that it
was not the receding of the water
which left it there.
There are several clearly defined
faults which run near and even
through San Francisco" continued DIR.
Hayes. He took Il geological map and
! pointed out four or five. The more eX-
tensiye run just south of the city, but
there are two or three which cross the
ground on which the city stood They
all trend northwest and southeast, in
the direction in which the earthquake
wave is reported to have travelled. The
! most pronounced of them passes
through Palo Alto, where IA violent
shock was felt
1T may be- said DR.. Hayes, that a
slip occurred somewhere at the upper
or northern end of one of these faults
and, following down to the southeast,
| produced the shock that destroyed San
Francisco and wrecked ralo Alto
| buildings"
I r.