The sun., 1906-02-05

which at some later date declining trade
and falling security market, either or
both of them, may be brought about.
There is in the first place the danger always
to be regarded Of n collapse or reaction
even If only Of comparatively brief dura-
tion-in both the business world and on
the Stock Exchange owing to purely in
ternal causes. A condition Of topheaviness
and overproduction may arise which,
without the occurrence Of any external
disaster whatever, may bring about fall
in values. The speculative superstructure
in any market, especially one which has
for long time been progressively en-
larged, may at any time get to be too large
and require reduction. And 1t * often
hard to tell in advance just when such
reduction is wise or is likely to be enforced
by the march Of events. There have been
many periods in the course of the last year
and in the course of the last decade when
the stock market has looked topheavy to
great many expert observers ana wheh
1t has been proved that the critical deduc-
tions of all these people were unfounded;
and, again. there have been occasions
when practically everybody Thought that
the market was in the strongest possi-
BILE shape when, as things turned out, 1t
was resting very insecurely Retrospect
rather than foresight in this matter is what
Wall Street usually INDUCES in or direct
and external causes OF adversely to the
market there are In evidence now, as much
as ANYTHING else, possible labor difficulties
in the coal mining re gons and the exposed
condition of the winter wheat crop. The
opinion Of those usually best informed is
that there will be no coal troubles. owing to
the large supplies OF anthracite that have
been collected and to the depression that
has long existed in the bituminous coal
trade Still the conference the West be-
tween the coal miners and their employers
has resulted in an impdsse, and newspaper
accounts Of the feeling on 10th sides are
not very encouraging. We have had the
mildest winter almost in our records, which
has in many ways up to the present time
been of great advantage in business sense.
II has enabled the railways of thu country to
save millions Of dollars in ope rating ex-
penses, and it has caused building opera
tions throughout the country to b. uninter-
ruptedly carried on at time OF the year
when they are generally either greatly
impeded or practically suspended. But it
has, on the other hand, afforded no snow
covering for the winter wheat. so that the
plant, stimulated by abnormal growth,
now lies open to the freezing and thawing
incident to the late winter and spring. II
the same mild weather that we have had
continues into early summer, or II during
the present month proper amount Of snow
falls, it seems to be thought probable that
the winter wheat will escape injury, but
,e ia, r-hi iHh InIvn nfs lrs,
becoming interesting.
Again, too, the money situation OF the
next two months may perhaps prove a
subject of concern. 1t is conceded that we
would even now be exporting gold we're it
not for the fact that the Bank Of France,
having reached the limit Of its note circua-
ton and being thus under no necessity of in
creasing the gold reserve on which its circu-
laton rests, is not offering any Inducements
to our bankers to ship gold abroad, but it
is known that probably within months
time the legal formalities instituted by
the Bank Of France for the purpose of in
creasing its note circulation will be COM
pleted and that the Rank will then be in the
market for gold. as 1t has been pretty con-
stsntly for some years back. As it stands,
sterling exchange in this country is only
very slightly below the level upon which
gold must be exported upon a strictly conf
mercial basis. There is always a drawing
in Of money each year around the first of
April in preparation for the spring agri
g, 1t lral necessities and this sometimes
results in a money pinch only second in
severity to that often experienced in the
fall; and while bank conditions here as
regards cash reserve and loans are better
than they were two months ago, they are
still far lower than average records for
the season, so that with money outflow
both to Europe and to the West there might
be furry in money rates later on. In
larger sense the question may well be asked
at this time what the money situation in
the fall is likely To be, it, sta artng from such
conditions as now exist, the business of the
country and the demands for funds for
speculative purposes go on enlarging
through the summer at the rate in which
they have enlarged in the last six months
Thought may he taken finally, although it
of course relates TO matters a long way
of, Of various political uncertainties. The
railway rate regulation bill and Con-
gressional and legislative Investigations Of
railway holding compa MES, trust com
panies and the like will probably amount to
very little "a deterrent factors in business
or speculative enterprises. But a tariff
war with Germany would be matter not
SO lightly brushed away; and the elect ion
in this State this fall may in view of matters
with which every observer of the signs of
the times is familiar, be an event which
Wall Street will regard with something more
than passing interest.
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EIA AM Nn N IEDcIAI