Northern Wisconsin advertiser. [volume] (Wabeno, Wis.) 1898-1925, 1906-11-15

to forecast the changes Of atmospheric
conditions few days in advance, or
for the political experts to give good
reasons for their anteelection predic
tons, an obviously much more diff
cult task 1t must be to forecast the
amount of talking over the telephone
wires the American people will be do
ing 13 years from now. Yet that is a
line OF prediction upon which the en-
dneers of the Bell companies OF the
United States are working. AS q
means of discovering just how the
needs Of the future can best be met
step by step, the telephone census
has become an accepted part Of mod
ern telephone engineering. 1t Is
probably the only one OF its kind to
be taken from ten to twenty years In
advance with absolute completeness
OF detail
The plan OF work is thorough and
painstaking. Locality by locality the
engineers of company go over their
territory and find out how many lines
will be needed, say In 1920; where
each one Of these will probably be To-
Gated where each exchange should
be placed; how many square feet Of
floor space will be required; how many
busy operators will be handling calls
10 years from now; what restroom
facilities these will need-everything,
In fact, regarding the plant down to
the minutest details is carefully fore
casted. Guess-work It might seem to
the outsider. but II must be guesswork
so remarkably good that no serious
mistakes can be made in the new con-
struction, year by year.
The telephone engineer has, for a
starter, the carefully tabulated Stats
tics OF the growth of his company In
recent years, showing how rapidly the
number Of lines and of subscribers has
increased; how the revenue has been
affected by extensions of service, by
reductions In rates and other causes;
how the average number of messages,
originating day by day at each tele-
phone station, has varied; how the toll
traffic has grown in relation to the To-
cal traffic. These and an immense
number OF other statistics form ii
basis for mathematical calculation.
But Office work alone does not salts
fy the modern telephone engineers
desire for thoroughness. The prob.
lem must be seen face to face. Ac-
cordingly he sends his young men out
These observers make notes as they
go about, just as carefully as an as
sesor would cover his strict, but al
ways with an eye to the probable fu
ture as well as to the actual present
From the data they have gathered and
brought to the Office every house and
every vacant lot Is plotted on a map
Facts regarding the Improvement OIL
deterioration of neighborhoods are
noted Residences are divided into
three classes; the first. those tina
may fairly be expected by 1920 {,
have an average OF one telephone lin,
TO each house; second. those In which
an average of one line to every famil,
may be predicted; third. those Ii
which an average OF one line to ever,
six families may safely be predicted
Similarly. the places OF business ar
classified into single wire groups an,
two-party wire groups.
Out OF the Character map" thu
formed an estimate can be made o
the whole number OF lines which eacl
exchange district should have In 1920
This count Is made, not simply on tn
basis OF the yearly increase of tn
telephone traffic, but also on Studio
OF the growth OF each city and town Il
the district. While IL is assumes
that manufacturing center will cor
tinue to be manufacturing center
and that place whose Importance /
determined by its being a main dis
tributing point will continue TO hol
that character. efforts are made q
get a line on the probable standing o
each place decade or more hence
Not all towns of equal population ar
going to be alike as regards capacit,
for telephone use Data are gathere'
from real estate men and others spe
cially Interested. The quality OF tn,
population which Is moving into tn
different cities Is considered. On,
place, II is assumed. will have In 1872,
an average of Is telephone lines I,
100 OF population Another. perhaps
Of the same size. having differen
character of population will be goo,
for only 10 lines per hundred of popn
lation.
The number and location OF en-
changes has to be predetermined
The web OF lines which may center al
a single switchboard is now about 10,
600 and II is not thought that this
number will be greatly exceeded Will,
the length OF the operators arm re
mains as nature established II. Man,
new exchanges. therefore. must be
built In Is years, and many city now
having single exchange viii be
placed upon 'multi-office basis"
The switch boards furthermora