The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1906-12-09
SCIENTIFIC METEOROLOGY.
~ssrumblcrs Who Expect II 10 Tell Them
what the Weather L. Likely to Re.

The conversation had 10 do with the
official weather forecasts and one Of those
1 present, who had been having little 10 say,
remarked:
Gentlemen. you do not seem to under
stand the theory Of weather prognostica-
ton as it ~ understood by the scientific
men engaged in ~. To illustrate:
Surgery is the most beneficent If sci
encee. H. prolongs human life and, what
is more important, 1t greatly decreases the
sum Of human agony. II is less experiment
tal than medicine. II may fairly he termed
an exact science.
"A surgical operation In performed.
The operating surgeon il a man of great
knowledge and skill. The other surg cons
present pronounce the operation a success
even a brilliant SUCCESS. The patient
succumbs while still under the influence Of
the anesthetiC.
Does the incident Of the patients death
make the operation any the less a SUCCESS?
| Certainly not. The operation was done
swiftly. skilfully and without the slightest
fault. 1t was successful and the patients
death is a matter entirely spa TT from the
success Of the opera ton.
Professors Of the science of meteorology
do not admit thar it is less an exact science
than surgery, and their criterion of success
is the same as that Of the surgical professors
and practitioners. The meteorologist has
beneath his eye the telegrsphic reports Of
meteorological conditions from all points
of the compass His task is to determine
what should be the weather in a given
locality at a given time.
He carefully notes every factor and
announces, not his guess, but his definite
conclusion according 10 the methods Of
the science OF meteorology. Ii Is, TO take
as an example a recent forecast for the
region of New York city, rain to-day and
warmer, increasing southwest 10 south
winds; rain or snow and colder tomorrow,
winds shifting TO southwest by night
That forecast was o success. The day
was one Of the brightest in "A twelvemonth,
cooler, with a ~northwesterly gale. On the
| f~ollowinZ day there was no rain and no
snow, and the wind was not southwest.
but came from the north.
But do these incidental differences be-
tween the weather as predicted and the
weather as it was lear upon the question or
the SUCCESS Of the forecast from a scientific
point OF view? Assuredly not.
o the evening when the meteorologists
we're making the forecast | have Just men
toned. I asked a bayman what he thought
the weather was going to be.
~'Well.' he said, the wind il not backing
UP from the east. but Is going around with
the sun I reckon il will be fair weather
tomorrow with a good breeze Of wind
from nor west. After that it will be a
little cooler, with the wind holding of
shore. | have engaged TO get six barrels
of CLANS, and il the wind doesn't get around
into southwest or south III get EN-
He got his clans, for the wind held OIL
shore, and here was little sea on.
The trouble" the man concluded, lis
that you expect to get something you are
NOT paying for. You are paying for scien-
tiic m~eteorology. and you get it. Do
you want the earth? Do you expect that
in addition TO getting your meteorological
forecast you will get valuable information
as TO what the weather will be?"