Every evening, Wilmington daily commercial., 1906-01-20
Jureled Cron pnnnrta

JuReleo Crop reports.
Recent charges Of the spurious char
acter OF crop reports issued by the Bureau
of Statistics Of the Agricultural Depart
ment are conhrmed by the report Of the
Keep Commission, which was made public
yesterday. The charges were that tho
reports were juggled in the interest of
market speculations, and that inside in
formation was secretly impaired to out
side parties for use in speculative transac-
tions.
The Keep Commission was ordered by
the President, on the complaint Of the
New England Cotton Manufacturers As
sociation, to investigate the work Of the
forecasting Of crops by the Department
Of Agriculture, and especially the cotton
report. The conclusions of the commis-
sion are summed up in one paragraph:
"Indeed, the wide divergence Of the re-
suits obtained by the Bureau of Statistics
from actual results arrived at by the CEN
sus, in the case not only Of live stock, but
Of all crops other than cotton, iustifes the
conclusion that the methods and results
must be improved materially or the service
should be abandoned"
The report shows that the expenses Of
the Bureau Of Statistics have increased
from 500, 800 in 1850 to Sl06 400 for the
present fiscal year.
The commission ridicules the great
stress laid by the Department Of Agri-
culture on the fact that it bases It's cotton
reports on information sought from S5 900
different persons. The commission thinks
the enormous number indicates a lack Of
care in selection.
The commission condemns the entire
system under which the Bureau Of statis-
tics proceeds in arriving at the percentage
normal" crop. Il says the use Of the
word normal" is misleading.
The report severely reflects on the re-
suits which have been obtained as to the
acreage planted. Il shows that the only
reliable statistics as TO acreage are col
lected by the Census Bureau once in ten
years. IL compares the estimate of the
Bureau of Statistics for 1879, 1889 and
1899 with the actual figures collected by
the census, and shows that in the first wear
the estimate Of the bureau was l3 per cent
less than the actual figures; in the second
year 8 per cent, and in the third year per
cent.
In a table Of comparison by States the
Keep Commission shows that while the
bureau Of statistics guessed" the acreage
rather closely in 1889 and 1899, the esti-
mates by States we're so grossly inaccurate
as to show very loose work. The differ
ences by States range from 2l per cent
above the actual acreage as determined by
the census to 33 per cent below. The
commission says the determination of
acreage is the determination Of a question
Of fact. The result shown by these helter
slSelter figures is the natural result Of a
faulty system.
The estimated production by States for
1899 in comparison with the actual pro-
duction reported by the census shows that
tho estimate for Florida was only 81 per
cent OF the actual crop, while for Ten
nessee it was 26 per cent in excess, fol
North Carolina Ia per cent in excess and
for Louisiana 10 per cent less
The most severe reflections upon the re.
ports Of the Department of Agriculture are
in connection with crops other than cotton
Taking tho figures for 1899, the Keer
commission has compared them with the
census reports
Secretary Wilson's bureau estimated
the acreage Of corn at 50, los, ,5S7. The
census report showed the actual acreage
to have been 9i,9l3 ,673, a difference Of ls
per cent. Wheat was estimated at "A =
592, GIG acres. The actual acreage was
80, ,5Ss, ,574, q discrepancy Of 10 per cent. The
acreage of oats was forecasted at 26. .34l !.
$50. The census reported 20 ,539 COS
acres, a difference Of IL per cent.
The barley acreage was estimated at
2,s7s 200. Tho actual acreage was 4.47O.-
1876. discrepancy Of 80 per cent. The
acreage Of hay was estimated at Al .S2s,.
462 The actual acreage was 81 ,69l ,069
a difference Of Ss per cent.
When the actual production Of agricul.
tural products In 1899 is compared with
the prophecy Of the Agricultural Depart
ment the result is quite as startling. Sec
rotary Wilson's buroau underestimated
the production Of corn % per cent; Of
wheat, II per cent; oats, l6 per cent; bar.
ley, 80 per cent; potatoes, 16 per cent, and
hay, 80 per cent.
"Faulty as these statements we're. saw
the Keep Commission, ''the reports of the
Bureau Of Statistics on farm animals wer,
! even worse in the same year"
The Agricultural Department estimated
the swine Of the country at 1000 600
while the census reported SO 100000. Tn,
estimate on cattle. other than milk cows
I. was 2s,OOO,0O0. The actual number wa
4 5l,0000OO. Variations in the cases O
= sheep, horses and mules were almost a.
/. great.
Socialists and anti-Socialists are to hol,
demonstrations In Berlin tomorrow IN,