Yorkville enquirer. [volume] (Yorkville, S.C.) 1855-2006, 1906-09-07
EIGHT CENT COTTON.
Interesting Calculations as to the
Probable Trend of Prices.

Probable Trend of Prices.
Mr.. H. Madanian Of Smyrna, Tur-
key, who is in New York for few
weeks, contributes the following in
regard to what he deems the impos-
sibilites of Scent cotton this season.
I'VE are confronting a general
feeling that Scent cotton is inevita-
BILE, but we venture the prediction
that this feeling Is founded more on
sentiment than upon a sound and
logical basis.
I'm our opinion cotton prices will
be ruled more than ever this season
by the usual dominating factors
supply and demand. The yield Is va
riously estimated from thirteen to
fourteen millions, which the present
level of values partly discounts.
"The unexpected, Of course, fre-
quently happens, and 1t may prove
to be the case in the present instance,
as many traders think Scent cotton
not only a great probability, but in
fact practical certainty. Our views
for 2 brighter market are based on
the following:
First, the difference between the
acreage this season and that Of the
big crop year is fully 100000 less.
Second, the condition Of the plant,
according to the last bureau report,
Is ten per cent less favorable, and
even IL the coming bureau report
shows a condition of about seventy
nine, 1t will be six per cent less than
the September government report Of
the big crop year.
considering also the unseasonably
low temperatures which prevail In
many sections of the cotton belt, not
to mention the fact that the crop Is
fully two or three weeks late IN
many localities, the condition cannot
be considered as ideal, as the possi-
bility of an early frost, as in case OF
the crop in 10000, must not be ig-
nored. Early frost In the season Of
10000 was the main factor In
bringing an already poor crop down
too close to the 10-million bale mark,
despite a 29-million acreage and a
September condition Of s1.2.
I'm the season Of 1904-05, when a
crop of fourteen million was gener-
ally accepted as a fact early In the
season, spot prices did not go up to
the 7-cent mark. On the other hnad,
prices did not fail to speedily run up
to 10h cents when a record con-
sumption Of twelve and a half mil
lion bales was forecasted.
"At the present moment everyone
Is talking of the expected enormous
yield, absolutely overlooking and ig-
noring the fact that the consumption
is increasing at a rate unparalleled
I'm the worlds history.
"In short we must consider the
universal prosperity both at home
and abroad, the number Of newly
erected mills, the actual cheapness
of the raw material the reduced
Indian cotton stocks, as compared
with last year, and the usual yearly
increase Of 100000. bales. We have
a combination Of factors which lead
us to believe that a consumption Of
American cotton Of between twelve
and a half and thirteen million bales
Is a certainty.
Admitting that a crop Of thirteen
million bales is possible, IL every
thing with the crop goes as we'll as
in the season Of 1904-05, a consump-
ton of twelve and a half million
bales will undoubtedly be certainty.
The question then arises, II we have
a crop of twelve million bales and a
consumption Of twelve and a half
million bales developes, what will be
the price of cotton?
Working on the ideas above emu
merated, we shall advise our friends