Waterbury evening Democrat., 1905-02-17
FORETELLING WEATHER.

conditions for two days, sometimes for three. but not more than six, with considerable accuracy and with per feet honesty. But the man who under takes to foretell what weather we shall have on given date a month hence. or any number of months hence, is a quack. This is the official declar- ation of the United States weather bureau, speaking through E. E. Garrl' ott, professor of meterolOsy. This scf entific gentleman says that the nun. Der of monthly forecasters is increas. ing, and that they are doing good deal of harm. He expresses surprise that some of them are able to obtain pay from newspapers for their ''fore- casts" Very few of their predictions are ever verified. But their failures seem to be forgotten, while if, by lucky chance. storm of unusual se- verity occurs on date foretold by one of these long-ran"e guessers. the fact is talked about as wonderful thing by their acquaintances for years afterwards.
 The pamphlet which has been sent out by the weather bureau officials Is well calculated to make the long-range weather prophets very weary. One of these prophets submitted to the chief of the weather bureau in the summer of 1903 series of forecasts for the months of August. September and Oc- tober ensuing. The prophet named as the dates of maximum storm force. August II, August 24. September z and 27. October 6 and 19 On each one of these days perfect calm atmos- pheric conditions prevailed.
 Unwarranted. sensational and harm ful are the adiectives applied to these | long-range weather prophets by the msn who make legitimate business of studying weather conditions.
 | The scientific weather observer nev. | CT seeks to predict the weather for more than a limited time. hasinc his entire prediction on the probable result ! of the conditions passing under his ac. 1 tua1 observation at the time the n~N | diction is made. Since storms often move across the United States at the rate of about TOO miles day. and since if is well known that period oi two or three days of pleasant weather usually succeeds storm of a giver character. if may he possible to fore east the weather in limited section: for as much as six days at one time But. beyond that. all prediction i,
 mere guess work. about which no on, human being can possibly have nor, trnwlati-e fn advance than any other
 When system of weather observa
 tion as perfect aS that now cxistin'
 in the T'rited Statas shall be pxtenfI.,
 all over the world. if may be possibl
 to fOrctelI the weather for grcate
 nrInl.er of days in advance of the dat
 when the prediction is made. hut suIci
 tiinc aS foretelling the weathe- ac
 curaielv for month or two months i
 not to be expected aDDarentlv.
 Wa are now nfficiallv aSsuref tha
 all the weather predictions base
 upon the movements or influences q
 the planets. including especially th ! moon aIl stellar divinations. and al
 preficiionS based on observations c
 animals birds and plants. oT estimate
 I'asnI uDon days. months. seasons an
 year. have no legitima'a hasis: in ntl
 or words. they are illusory. Neiths
 tho moon nor any star has appreciah irsrence unon the weather. savs tl' of4'.IaI Iccument- hut many a man wi fnuhtIess ro on believing to the col
 trsrv. merely because it is the hah of lifetime. and if is easier to baliaI
 tharl to doubt. AS for the goose-bor
 -hno-v. we are told that it k one
 wf,frn, ro two reese agree. The thic ness of the piunlsge If wild or dome . tie fowl i< indicative of past westhe Isut not of that which is to com
 Whether the grounding or hear ( ,,sndian.as day sees his shadow. not. deErsnsi< uvr-, whether the sE shines sas it uSIlsIIv does on that sia' 2 ard aS tire weather i< usually cold il P snTrraI vne< I,act into hi< hole-sh } is. provided he first comes out whi
 is a fable brought down from