The Minneapolis journal. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn.) 1888-1939, 1905-03-01
WEATHER BUREAU
WARS ON FAKlRS
LONG DISTANCE FORECASTS ARE
CONSIDERED WORTHLESS.
Officials Hold That the Unofficial
"Forecasters" Are Endangering
Public Interests by Their Work
Leading Scientists Back Of the Gov
eminent Workers on Their Crusade.

War to finish IS tho campaign plan
Of the weather bureau against the dan
lists who are endangering public inter
ests by publishing "long distance
forecasts. The department is backed
by the leading meteorologists of the
country and the generals in the fight
will be the observers at the different
Section Director T. s. outram, Of the
variety of literature on the subject
which comprises a full expose. of the
impostors. The papers are written by
E. B. Garriott, professor Of meteoSology,
and Professor G. M. Woodward, of
Washington university, and are pre-
pared under the direction Of Willis s.
Moore, chief Of the weather bureau de-
partment.
"The success Of the United States
weather bureau,'' says Mr.. Moore in
the letter of transmittal, Gin making
conservative forecasts of the weather
two or three days in advance has Gre
ated the hope in the minds of the peo-
pie that it may be possible to. fore
cast the character Of the weather for
entifc men know that at present 1t is
impossible to crafty this wish, and the
government experts so inform all those
Who make the inquiry. But the mis-
taken Investigator of little knowledge,
the pseudo-scientist and the astrologer,
see their opportunity and at once step
into the breach, and sell spurious long
range forecasts to- public rendered
credulous by the success Of. the gov
eminent scientists.
Money In It.
GAS result Of personal verification
Of the work of long range forecasters,
some of whom have SO far gained the
confidence Of the rural press as to re-
ceive liberal compensation for their pre-
dictions, T am led to the conclusion that
these forecasters do positive injury to
the public at large"
Before taking up the long range
forecasters, Professor Garriott tells just
what the weather bureau has accom-
plished. r~>' >''.
The United States weather y bureau,
which possesses facilities that permit 1t
to surpass all other meteorological SER
vices in the accuracy Of it's predictions,
now issues forecasts each day for periods
of one and two days In advance. and at
times the period is extended to three or
four days. This Is the greatest length Of
time for which calculations based upon
present available data and information
can be made. The data referred to is re-
ceived daily by telegraph from an area
that embraces the United States, Canada,
the western Atlantic ocean, the West In
dies and Mexico. The forecasts are re-
suits Of careful studies from day to day of
atmospheric changes, movements and de-
velopments that appear within the region
of observation.
Rigidly Verified.
The daily calculations are subjected to
a rigid varifcation that yieldsl2f80 to- IS
per cent Of verified forecasts that have
been made in detail for each twelve hours
of the forecast period. In the. case Of
forecasts of severe storms, well-marked
cold waves, frosts and other phases Of
the weather that are calculated to cause
serious loss or inconvenience to CONNER
cial and industrial interests, and also in
the forecasting of floods in the principal
rivers Of the country, the forecasts are
almost invariably timely and accurate.
While the predictions thus. issued are not
long-range forecasts, 1t is interesting to
note that the period for which forecasts
have been officially and regularly made
has been extended during the last thirty
three years from eight hours to forty
eight hours without a lowering Of per-
centage Of veri1cation. ..'>..,..,.
He then shows how the fake weather
man draws the source Of his inspira-
ton from the theories that were in
vogue before the discovery that it was
the earth that revolved around tho
sun, and not the sun around the. earth.
He takes up in detail the, effect Of the
moon, the sun and the planets on the
weather Of the earth, from scientific
standpoint. The most interesting part
of the paper, however, are the weather
indications afforded by animals, birds
and plants. From a long series Of OBJ
servations he shows that the actions of
animals, the length Of fur, and the
amount Of provisions stored for win
ter, etc, depends not upon the future
but past conditions. The same is true
of moss on the barks Of trees. the
thickness Of nutshells, pumpkin rinds,
etc: However, he considers that the
rings on trees Of great age should be
studied as valuable records Of past sea-
son conditions. '.'>-
He then takes up records kept Of the
prophecies Of the foreoasters who make
use Of such data and shows that fully
one-half Of the forecasts are wrong,
and that the majority Of the others are
so vague as to be unintelligible.
Fakirs Seldom Right.
Another paper takes up the predic-
tons made by a fake weather, man
for a year and shows that only in re-
markable instances are the predictions
verified by the subsequent facts. Of
course, the predictions covered the en-
tire North American continent, and 1t, is
very likely that in one spot at least The
prediction will be realized. One Of the
fake predictions reads:
Clustering around Sept. and Il, Oct.
5 and 20, will come some Of the most Sc
we're storms Of recent years. These will
be so general all around the earth that
I advise all to be on guard near the dates
named. Storms miss ninety-nine out Of
a hundred places, but you will at least