New-York tribune., 1905-11-11
WEATHER FORECASTING.

However worthy may be the motives or
Mr. Fast the NewYork lawyer who organ
ized q contest in weather forecasting, which
is now drawing to a close, the public is not
warranted in expecting any valuable result
from the venture. Its author frankly conIesSeS
that he is looking for system that is petter
than the one pursued by the government; and
for this he offers the paltry sum of S1OO what
he seeks would. if found, be worth millions;
and ANYBODY who really possessed the secret
would be a fool-or a philanthropist-to give
it away for practically nothing. 1t may be re-
garded as foIegone conclusion that the HAIL
aeer of the competition will get for his money
only some amusing glimpses OF human nature
for he will be dealing mainly with "cranks'-
and a vast amount of bother in examining re-
sponses. 1t is said that a thousand persons
have entered the lists.
Imperfect as it still is the system employed
Inv the government at Washington is the same
as that now followed by the other official
hureaus of the civilized world. In Its develop
ment a notable array of scientific men have
had a share. Benjamin Franklin, James Espy,
7 c. Redfeld, Joseph Henry, Elias Looms ana
William Fernel all made valuable contributions
TO it. score of other Americans, who are snll
living have assisted in it's evolution. Helm
holtz and a number Of foreigners scarcely less
distinguished than he have also promoted the
vidual amateurs, each keeping his own meth
DDS to himself for purposes Of gain could DIS
cover laws which escaped the observation OF
such students of natural phenomena!
No one is more keenly alive to the deficiencies
oP tbeir nresent resources than official fore
casters in this country and Europe. The funda-
mental fact with which they start Is that
succession Of areas of high and low barometer
is constantly passing in an eastward direction
,,o{d oft The
position and size of the areas. together with
the attendant temperature and precipitation, are
revealed on maps prepared twice a day from
simultaneous reports from widely separated sta
tions In the velocity with which the highs
and lows" move, in their form, in the routes
which they follow and in two or three other
characteristics there is a lack of uniformity.
There can be no mathematical certainty about
the progress of storms and cold waves or their
intensity. The forecaster must be governed
mainly by the rule of averages, but modify
his conclusions by such incidental considera-
tions as topographic influences and the pecu-
larities of recent departures from the normal
procedure. In deriving an opinion about to-
mOrrow's weather from that of to-day 1nd1-
vidual shrewdness counts for something, as 1t
does In medical diagnosis; but experience is the
best qualification. This, in combination with
q careful study of the literature C his profes-
sion enables the American forecaster to attain
what everything considered is a remarkable
degree of success. In the long more than
so per cent Of his predictions verified. We
do not believe that this record can be equalled
in any other country in the world
Under every administration since a national
weather service was established in the United
States there have been elaborate and deter
mined efforts to improve it. New clews have been
eagerly sought a host Of planetary, lunar and
other theories in which outside forecaSterS have
faith have been patiently examined. In all
been or will be reported to Mr. Fast has been
investigated and with scarcely an exception
discarded. Those which, like watching sun
snots auroras and disturbances in terrestrial
magnetism have seemed to give any promise of
helm have undoubtedly been scrutinzed with
snecial care and their Investigations intrusted
to infinitely more competent persons than any
who will be brought into communication with
Mr. Fast by his recent invitation Besides
these inquiries others have been conducted which
originated with the bureau. The exploration of
the upper air by means Of kites and balloons
and cooperative observations of cloud move
ments are only two OF large number which
have been undertaken with zeal and intelli-
gence. With all It's faults, therefore the sys
TEN now in vogue IS Of which the country
may well feel proud. Furthermore, the great
hope of advancement in practical meteorology
lies in the work done inside. not outside, the
bureau over which Professor Willis /. Moore
presides: