Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1905-02-17
LONC-RANGE GUESSES.
Influence of Sun, Moon and
Planets on Weather.
TREATISE ON SCIENC E
WEATHER BUREAU OFFICIALS
DISCUSS sUPERsTITIoNs.
Alleged Abuse of Public Confidence
Sun Spots Observation-Disclosures
and Predictions.
TREATISE ON SCIEN CE

Popular weather superstitions and the
Influence of the sun, the moon ana the
planets on the weather of the earth are
interestingly treated in paper on Long
Range Weather Forecasts just prepared
under the direction of Professor Willis L.
Moore, chief of the United States weather
bureau by f. b. Garriott, professor of
meteoroIogy. The report skaters many
idols that have been hitherto worsh1ped
by weather devotees and dreamers, and
gives data and deductions of unusual in
terest concerning the science of the wealth
er as applied to forecasting.
In transmitting the paper to the Secretary
of Agriculture Professor Moore says:
The first chapter by Professor Garrfott,
presents verifcation of the work of the
most prominent of the so-called long-range
weather forecasters in the United States
that shows cOnclusively the fallacy of their
predictions. The second chapter, by Pro-
lessor Woodward shows the impossibility
of basing weather predictions on planetary
influences. This chapter was published by
Professor Woodward in 1879 in Wares VAL
ley Monthly, and Mr.. Tice whose theory
of planetary equinoxes is discussed and re-
futei was the predecessor of a long-range
wea her forecaster who is now operating
lin St. Louis, Mo.
The remainder of the paper is devoted
largely to the discussion of the subject by
smauy of the leading meteoroloSists of the
world. 1t reviews the literature OF long
range weather forecasts, and quotes the
tOpfnionS of leading scientists regarding the
pra ticability of lOng-range work. 1t re-
fers to theories regarding weather periodic
tiles depending upon lunar and planetary
Influences; summarizes results obtained by
comparison of maximum and minimum
sun-spot periods with the phenomena of the
earth's atmosphere; states that the next
advance in meteorological science must re-
suit from extensive research in solar phys
les and terrestrial magnetism and COM
parison of solar and terrestrial phenomena;
assumes that advances in the period ana
accuracy of the official weather forecasts
depends largely upon study of atmos-
pheric pressure over great areas, and
determination of the influences that oc-
casion normal and abnormal distribution of
the greater atmospheric areas.
Successful Forecasts.
i THE success of the United States Wealth
er Bureau in making conservative forecasts
of the wea Their two or three days in adj
vance has created the hope in the minds of
the people that it may be possible to fore
see the character of the weather for the
/ coming month or season. All scientific men
know that at present it is impossible to
crafty this wish, and the government eX-
perts so inform all those who make inquiry.
But the mistaken investigator of little
knowledge the pseudo scientist and the
trologer see their opportunity and at once
step into the breach and sell spurious long
rance forecasts to a public rendered credu-
s1ous by the success of the government sci
sentists. The abuse Of the public confidence
has become so great that l have thought it
sJustifiable to present to the reader indisput-
able evidence of the injurious character of
monthly or seasonal forecasts.
1T is the opinion of the leading meteor
oogists of the world that public interests
are injured by the publication of so-called
long-range weather forecasts, especially by
hoods, droughts and other atmospheric dis
turbances of a dangerous damaging
character. The publication of monthly
forecasts has reached such proportions that
* is deemed advisable to inform the public
as to their harmful character Some month
1y forecasters may be honest, and may, in
their ignorance, attach undue Importance
to storms that accidentally coincide in time
of occurrence with certain relative positions
Of the moon, or with periods of increase or
decrease in sun spots. or apparent varia-
GLASS the occurrence of storm within the
broad area of the United States or near
the day for which they have predicted
storm confirms, in their minds, the value of
their system of prediction. They may be-
EeVe that they have discovered a physical
law or a meteorological principle that has
not been revealed to astronomers, meteor
ologists any other class of scientific in
Sestigators but the publication of predic-
are positively injurious to agricultural,
commercial and other industrial interests
casts a doubt upon the honesty of their
makers"