Arizona republican., 1905-08-12
Gloomy Prospect for Con.
 CIuding of Peace
REPLY OF RUSSIANS
Ii is not Yet Detailed But it is Known That the Two Essential Demands of the Japanese will Probably be Rejected.

i sia's reply to the Japanese terms of ! peace will be delivered by M Witte to Baron Komura at 9:3O o'clock to- morrow morning. The reply is writ ! ten, there being two texts one in | French and one in English. Upon the two crucial points, the indemnity and | cessiOn of the Island of Sal<halin, the reply is an absolute non -pOssimus. Other points are accepted as a basis i for discussion, while still others are 1 accepted cOnditionally. The reply is rather long because in enumerating the l conditions on which the discussion is admitted, and those on which consider ation is declined, reasons and argu- ments are given.
 The Japanese plenipotentiaries are l expected to ask for an immediate ad- ! journment to examine and prepare their l reply. NJ Witte will probably inti- mate that the Russian ipOtentiaries | expect the Japanese to display as much expedition as they (the Russians) have shown in the preparation or their response. Monday, therefore, is expect 1 ed to be the day on which the real discussion of the negotiations will be- | gin. Neither side wants to indulge in i diplomatic sparring The time for | fencing is over and in less than a week l must decide whether a basis of peace is possible.
 The tactics of the Japanese are in scrutabIe They have shown through out the war this ability to guard their | secrets, military. naval and diplomatic and now nOb the remOtest clue comes from behind their closed doors. as to whether they are prepared to make substantial concessions. Silence and secrecy are their watchwords. But if the conditions as submitted constitute their last word, hope of peace may be regarded as having disappeared if the feeling reflected in Russian circles is a true criterion. And that no sub stantiaI concessions on the main is sues will be made. is the belief in both Russian and Japanese circles
 Tonight in the inner camps of both plenipotentiaries, the deepest pessi- mism reigns. M. Witte, it is positive Iy known, believes the prospects of an agreement are so remote as to be prac- ticaIIy nil He has no desire to prolOng the agony and instead of fencing when the plenipotentiaries come together af- ter the Japanese have had the oppOr- tunity to examine the reply there is strong reason to believe he will not On- ly welcome. but will insist upon an immediate discussion of all proposed bases. So pessimistic is he that he - |. dIIGduy Ocen ldihlliS IO HIS CCllCeAe7 NCN' of his plans when the rupture comes. Before sailing from home, he contem- plates a brief visit to Chicago
 That the Japanese terms. in so far as they touch the main points, will not be withdrawn materially modifi"' is the opinion of the most competent Japanese authority on the ground who will talk for publication. namely MT. Juliei Kumpei Matsumato, a member of the Japanese parliament, who is here as the financial emissary of Japan and who is in close communication with Baron Komura and MT. Takahira. The reasons he assigns are extremely in- teresting.
 "The conditions in their broad out lines" said he to the Associated Press correspondent tonight, have been sub stantially known to us in Japan and the Russians will be very much mis- taken if they imagine Japan will not insist on the two chief points the in demnity and the cession of Sal<halin. The surrender of either is impossible. If Baron Komura should yield on these points. the public feeling in Japan would be so strong that he would be murdered upon his return to Japan. We must be reimbursed for the cost of the war and have national claims to Sakhalin which we have never forgot ten.
 About 200 years ago. the island was explored by a Japanese, JuzO konda, who occupied it with Japanese and called it Karafuto, a name bestowed upon it by the aboriginal Inc race, who at that time, also inhabited the Island of Hokkaido.
 "Finallv it was discovered by a Rus sian captain. who occupied it in the name of Russia. The Japanese protest ed and a long desultory negotiation followed But Japan was then weak She had neither Gn army nor a navy. nor internal organization. Indeed, the country was almost on the verge ot revolution. Japan could not resist ana the upshOt was that Russia one day. ended the controversy by announcing that she would take Sa1halin and give Japan the Chishma (Kurile) islands which Japan already owned.
 Japan has no desire to humiliate Russia more than is necessary and even now she is seeking to avoid wounding Russia's suscepibilities, put the public opinion in Japan is abSo- Iutelv so firm upon the main issues, that no Japanese statesman could pos sibly dare to withdraw the terms which have been proposed as the ba- sis of peace"
 The question of the credentials has been amicably adjusted upon the as srrance of the Japanese that the pow CTS @ranted Baron Komura were in the regular form always employed by Japan NJ. Witte will not pursue the matter further. It is believed that his object in presenting his note on the subject was that it might go into the record of the conference to show that s the widely published intimations from Japanese sources before the confer :. ence that the powers granted him ,r,I.. rlfnr