New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1905-05-06
DEFICITS and PROPHETS.

THE Boston Herald" is inclined to challenge
as tra-optimistc our recent statement that 1.-The
Treasury outlook is better to-day than it has
been at any time during the last two years."
1t points out that the deficit for April was
$9,236,S1S and that the deficit for the first ten
months of the fiscal year stands at $50, ia, 956
Are not these figures OminOus? our Boston con-
temporary asks. Do they really justify the
declaration that Treasury prospects are more
promising now than they were one year ago or
two years ago? 1.-The Herald" also reproduces
this comment on the Treasury situation from
The Tribune of October f. 1904:
The operations of the first quarter offer no fair
test for gauging the balance for the full fiscal
year. deficit is indicated. but not very seri-
Gus one. On September's showing the kinder
garten school Of alarmists is entitled to a long
and well earned rest.
"The Herald" asks us whether a deficit on
April 80 "risng S34OOOO0O" confirms our last
October forecast We have no hesitation in
saying that it does. Our Boston contemporary
will remember that all through the Presidential
campaign the charge was made by Democratic
orators and Democratic newspapers that a Re-
publican Congress had practically bankrupted
the government and that Treasury operations
for 1904-'05 would show a tremendous deficit
The Democratic candidates for President and
Vice-President repeatedly estimated this deficit
at S144,OO0,OOO, and the newspapers supporting
them showed no disposition to question that
judgment. The Tribune asserted then that the
Parker-DaVts calculations were absurdIy and
childishly misleading. AS said, a deficit
was indicated-but not an alarming or sensa-
tional one. We predicted losing balance for
the year not Of $144000O00 but of something
over $25,0O0000 The operations of the last
seven months have shown the soundness of our
prophecy. The deficit on April 80 was not S12O-
OOO,O0O-as II should have been according to the
logic Of the Parker-Davis econOmists-but S33-
9l4,9o6. Moreover, a probable excess of re-
ceipts for May and June will reduce this total
to $26,OO0,OO0 or $27,00O.OOO. On such n show
ing we still contend that the 'alarmists" of last
July and August are entitled to "a well earned
rest"
1t is equally easy to demonstrate that the
treasury outlook to-day is better than if was
in May, 1903, or May. 1904. Two wears ago the
nscal year was ending with a large surDlus but
taxation had been reduced and eypenditUras
were increasing Besides, an appropriation of
S5O,OOO,000 for the purchase of tbe poro,,o
Canal franchise and plant had been made and
the money was held in the Treasury awaiting
only the final transfer of title. The $5O.OOOOOO
was actually paid out in May 1901 Credited
as current expenditure, it caused 4 deficit fo.
the year Of $41,770.000. Omitting 1t. as an av-
traordinary charge, the surplus for the wear was
q little over S9000O00 For 19O4-'O5 however
appropriations had already passed the MARGIN
OF expected revenue, and n deficit was recoo.
nized as inevitable All through the wear nov.
ending the Treasury has struggled TO make ends
meet and has done well to escape with Iosine-
balance OF less than $30,000OOO.
Two things have greatly frightened Traos,,.,.
prospects in the first place, the APPROPRIATED,
for 1905'06 have not overrun the limit of ro,,o
nue. No deficit is expected--in itself a decidad
change for the better. In the second place. Con
gress has passed law forbidding the heads os
departments to make anticipatory contracts or
TO create obligations which have to be met sinh.
sequently through deficiency appropriations