The Manning times. [volume] (Manning, Clarendon County, S.C.) 1884-current, 1905-06-21
HIGHER COTTON PRICES LIKELY.
G. c. Cowan Makes Exhaustive Analysis Of
the Market Sitration-Cha1ces for q
Famine in the Staple are Great.


Famine in the Staple are Great.
{. c. Cowan, whose opinions
on the market are always Of the
greatest interest to the trade,
will today send out letter that
suggests some new ideas, per-
hapS, and is a very interesting
expression OF opinion, to say the
least. Following is the letter in
full:
Now tnat the authorities have
given Us the acreage and condi-
tion of the new crop and the
season is sufficiently advanced to
give us some clue to the general
prospects, and crop estimates by
premature guessers ranging
from 100000 to 100000
bales, let as take a look at the
situation and see if we can dl-
vine what developments the
future may hold in store. And
in all of our reasoning and cal
culating we must bear in mind
THAT the results produced by sta
tistics are dependent almost en-
tirely upon the existing condi-
tions in trade aud the existing
prices: that a crop of 13, 10000
is worth higher prices to a trade
condition requiring 13.oOO:O0O
than a crop of 100000 IS
worth to a trade condition not
requiring 10000, 200; that a sur
plus OF 100000 is less of a
Weight on a prosperous market
than a surplus Of 100000 is on a
market suffering from poor
trade; that when cotton is de-
pressed below its legitimate
value it can advance in the face
of bearish statistics, and that
when it is boosted above it's leg
itimate value it can decline IN
the face of bullish statistics.
We recall how in the fall OF
1899 cotton advanced consider
ably from the previous low
point Notwithstanding the ex:
cessive stocks of cotton and
goods which accumulate in con-
sequence of the two bumper
crops of over 100000 each,
because cotton had been de-
pressed below its value and
! trade was on the mend. We saw
cotton decline from previous
high levels in the falls OF 1908
and 1904 with famine supplies OF
cotton and goods. partly because
cotton had been forced above its
Legitimate value, but mainly be-
cause trade was exceptionally
poor.
Now then, the census report
tells US that there have been
13, 100000 bales ginned in the
South this season. Whereas
some of that was marketed in
! August last, we will assume that
an equal amount of the new
crop will come in sight this Au-
gust, and we will deal with a
Weld for the fiscal year of 49,
100000 bales, less 100000 bales
which will be lost to the trade
on account of country damage,
etc. Adding the visible supply
on Sept. 1, last, of 1000 bales;
we will assume that the total
supply for the season is in round
figures IA, 100000 bales. Of the
Is, 500, 600 of this crop available
we have marketed 12,42O,000
bales leaving apparently in the
planters hands 1000, 900 bales,
added to the present visible sup.
ply of American Of 2,44O, 900
bales, leaves us 3,520.00O bales
to draw from for the remaining
- weeks of this season.
Formerly, it was an element
of weakness for a part OF the
surplus to be carried over by the
planters. But since the South
has shown it's financial ability to
carry 100000 or 10000 bales
of cotton without any signs OF
distress, it does not matter
much in what proportion the
surplus at the end of this season
may be held by the planters, the
spinners, or in the visible sup
| ply. The merits of the situation
will be about the same. But,
without attempting to approx
mately predict in what proper,
ton the surplus will be divided
between the three, let us assume
a division which would seem a
natural result. If the move
|ment averages $4,000 bales per
week for the balance Of the sea
son the planters will be rid Of all
their cotton excepting 22O, 900
bales. This much is usually
carried over by them in normal
seasons. Under normal condi-
tons the spinners Of the world
carry over stocks equal to from
one to two months consumption,
the average being about six
weeks supplies. At the end of