The Montgomery advertiser., 1905-01-01
The estimates of the amount actually

4E The estimates or the amount actuaily ' grown are not strictly comparable as they stand with the so-called commer- ciaI crops which represent the amounts < marketed inasmuch as such commercial crop includes not only from 2 1-2 to per cent. of linters and sample cotton, known commercially as the ''city crop" but also cotton brought forward from preceding years and so much of the crop of the succeeding year as may < have been marketed prior to September list; while on the other hand. a deduc- 's tion has to be made for cotton of that years growth marketed during the preceding commercial year, or carried ! forward to the year following.
 Independent of these adjustments. the departments preliminary estimate of the crop of 1899 made, it should be remembered, before the entire crop was gathered. differed only 2.6 per cent from the amount marketed that year; that of the year 1900, 2.9 per cent that of 1902, 2.S per cent and that of 1908. II per cent.
 Only once in the last five years, 2 namely in 1901, was there any wide discrepancy between the departments preliminary estimate of the amount ssgrown and the commercial crop. That year the difference was so great-9 per cent-that a special investigation was made by field agents with -1yiew to ascertaininA its cause and it was found that while the departments estimate of the amour grown was 9 98e,000 bales less than the commercial crop proved to be; the estimate diff sfered only 2S2,00o bales, or less than 6 per cent from the actual crop. The reason for the apparent great dis crepancy was that in addition to 172,- 226 bales of linters and 6i,343 bales of sample cotton rebaled, the commercial rH hAN @Ia.IA Aha bales grown in preceding years and brought out by the high prices which X then prevailed and 19S, ,19O bales of the crop of the following year marketed prior to September 1, 1909 there being on the other hand l15.550 bales of the crop of 1901-02 marketed prior to Sep . tember l, 1901 and 154,592 bales of the same ccrop carried forward to the year IS02-o3 leaving an actual growth in the year 1S0l-02 of 996647s
 The amount of cotton held over by planters from one year to another var 1es considerably. as you know, as does also--although this is less important factor-the amount of cotton marketed before September l, and consequently included in the commercial crop of the preceding year. But while for this reason there may be considerable difference between the amount grown and the amount marketed in any 4iuBle year, the totals Tor a series of five or more years ought not to be greatly at variance and it is in a com parison of a five years basis that the accuracy of the departments figures is most strikingIy revealed. The total amount of cotton marketed in the Uni- ted States in the five years ending August 3I, 1904. was 5l.O44,125 bales while the sum of the preliminary es- timates of this department. issded an nually in December. plus 1-2 per cent for 1inters and sample cotton (ad- nnitted a conservative estimate) was 5o.z7s.365 bales. a difference of only z64,7so bales for the five years, or 1s2.a52 bales, per annum. When 1t is ramembered that in not a single year of these five years did the depart ment over-estimate the crop, this. close correspondence (within Is per cent.) becomes all the more signifi- cant
 With regard to the ginners reports published at frequent intervals by the bureau of the census, I not only regard them as of the utmost value in them selves, but I consider the continuance of their publication by the census bureau as absolutely essential to that perfect cotton reporting system which the magnitude of the cotton interests Of the country demands and which I fully. believe will, in the very near future, be so strongly entrenched in public confidence that nothing can discredit it.
 Very respectfully yours.
 John Hyde.
 Chief of Bureau.