Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1905-12-16
ACT NOT HASTILY
TEE ABLEsr MEN CANNOT FORE
SEE EVENTS.
Truest Policy is to Cultivate Calm,
Which Makes Readiness More
.
Effective.

at a moment when leaders everywher are
obviously trying to- mark time, is worthy
of general notice Until they perceive it,
observers however cautious, are apt to find
their judgments perplexed. and that for
ward view which all of us involuntarily
take to seem unreasonably ill-founded. No
one, for instance, quite expected the re-
suit of the Russo-Japanese war. few
men, generally statesmen or soldiers, were
more or less aware of the lighting strength
Of Japan; but even they. we believe. ex-
pected kind of stalemate arising from the
reluctance Of both powers to go on spend
ing without decisive result. At least one
half of them looked forward, when they
tried to forecast, to some manifestation Of
the gigantic, though torpid, strength or
China and a consequent alteration in the
main conditions Of the game.
No one expected, we think, that Japan
would be so entirely victorious, both by
SET and land, as to wake up all the latent
elements of revolution in Russia and render
the whole European prospect for the fu-
ture doubtful or obscure. Later on very
few. scarcely any, guessed at the absence
of fury, the marvellous self-control, of the
Japanese statesmen and ruling classes
which enabled the government to make
sensible peace by giving up the one clause
In the terms upon which the hearts of the
majority of the japanese people-and prob
ably of the soldiers, who expected great
donative-were strongly set When peace
had been declared, hardly any one looked
for the next event. the emphasizing of the
entente between France and Great Britain
that Is, in fact, between France and Great
Britain and Japan-which woke the Ger
man emperor out of a dream and at all
events seemed to make peace on the CONT
nept secure
Revolution in Russia.
And then the revolution in Russia. All
hot
that; but what they did expect was an
emeute or at least partial mutiny among
the defeated soldiery. They never expected
mutiny among the sailors. followed by
rising chiefly though not wholly passive,
among the intelligent and the artisans be-
fore they had made an alliance with the
peasantry, who in Russia constitute the
most weighty division of the people And
then, to take smaller illustration Of our
thesis-smaller, that is, because the result
is not yet clearly visible-look at the Aus
TRAN trouble Every one competent to
form an opinion expected that the passing
of the Emperor Francis Joseph would be
the signal for dangerous dislocat:ons with
in the Austrian empire; but who expected
that they would come while that astute
diplc mat, taught by half century Of de-
feat and success, still held the helm and
held it, too, with a hand that did not
culver; that, in fact, the three great races
under his scepter-Magyar, Slav and Ger
en-, 1t may soon be really threaten. hostili-
ties with each other; that German Aus
TRANS would be talking of "our higher
civilization" and Slavic "Austrians' of
''our larger numbers and Magyar Aus
TRANS of our historic rights"-all of them
good pleas, though separation with an ag-
grandized Germany on one side and Rus
STA in revolution the other, would be
a risk IT were madness to incur?
Sweden and Norway.
And then look at this Scandinavian rup-
ture. Every one knew that there were
jealousies between Sweden and Norway;
but did any one expect that the magazine
would suddenly explode, or still less that,
exploding, it would do no immediate mis-
chief. 1t might have done In dozen diff
ferent ways? Can any one recall an In
stance of nations bitter, yet SO reason
able, of a European arrangement broken
up without bloodshed; and this at time
when the nations, far from being ex-
hausted, were armed to the teeth both with
panoply and alliances which look in GER
tain events to war? 1t is easy to Say, as
everybody is saying, that Norsemen are
among the most sensible OF mankind and
that the Danish dynasty, like the Coburs
dynasty, is always ready for another
throne: but Is that the whole truth2 Are
any fiercer than the Mortimer, or
more divided as to the instincts which make
men monarchists or republicans?
The Norwegians are republicans In social
tone, and the Swedes aristocrats; yet the
Norwegians have re-established monarchy
during revolution and the Swedes have
pardoned a secession which must have gall
ed the pride Of every Swedish noble to the
very bone; while the Swedish king. a Ber-
nadotte, has treated the affront put upon
him-an affront which would have driven
princes half mad-with the calm dignity of
a Hapsburg, who in his secret mind con-
siders that any affront to him proves the
boorishness of the person who affronts. We
xT-r.t, cir TO
whether three years ago he would have
considered 1t possible that such a pulveri-
zauon of the arrangements of 1914 could be
accomplished without bloodshed-that Is,
without at least fierce guerrilla war in the
range which separates Norway from Swe-
den, and about which both nations have
legends of strife for every acre.
Unexpectedness Of Events.
We shall be asked what we expect from
pointing out the unexpectedness of events,
which, If they are unexpected, or so far as
they. are unexpected. cannot be prevented.
We answer that it is well to recognize any
marked sign Of the times, because such
recognition makes men cooler, less liable
to panic, and, above all things, less liable
to grow angry. 1t Is not the Kings who
are in violent motion Just now, but the peo-
pies; and 1t Is as reasonable-or shall we
say as wise?-to be angry with the floods.
The crowds are rushing as they will rush
sometimes-else whence the word STAN
pede?'-and the true policy is to let them
rush until both they and the watchers can
discern a little the object OF the rushing.
There may be necessity occasionally for
bullets-we have little belief in non-resist-
ance as a permanent working faith-but to
pour in bullets before we see clearly what
Is toward Is bloodthirsty folly. The bullets
have their value, and we should always be
armed; but we should keep the reason
without which the bullets will all be wasted.
There are always cycles in human affairs.
and just now, il we read things rightly, the
cycle Is one of unexpected events There
is no source of strength in such times so
valuable as calm, or so necessary to en-
able rulers to turn the stampede aside.
English statesmen waited quietly, as we
regret to say the English public did not.
through the Dogger Bank incident; and to-
day are we the stronger or the weaker for
that waiting? We might, as SO many reck-
less men desired, have destroyed the Rus
sian feet, and so have brought the Rus
sian army to India before we were ready:
but we did not, and the Russian fleet pass
ed out OF existence without our help and
without the Indian frontier being even
menaced. The world has grown so COM
pick that the ablest cannot foresee, and