New-York tribune., 1905-02-14
REVOLUTION PREDICTED.
Autocracy Must Fail an T1go Years,
Says Leading Liberal.


American people clearer insight into the opin-
ions held by prominent Russians regarding the
struggle now raging in the empire against the
principle Of absolutisTn, The Associated Press
has asked number of well known Russian writ
ers TO express their views. In the following
statement NJ Demchinsky, prominent Liberal,
who is a contributor to the Russ expresses
the opinion that autocracy will fight inch by
inch, but that the existing order of things will
be completely swept away by revolution within
two years. He says:
The Russia of to-day stands out in strong relief
against the background of her history. Even a
will show a condition SO foreign to the western
lnd as to render II easy to understand that future
lines. The future of Russia will not follow prece-
temporaneous Russian life and that of West Euro
pean countries is the complete absence of classes
sessng special privileges and eternally warning for
where else in Europe The classes in Russia, Of
Wnlct: one hears so much abroad old they WERE
eges We're almost Completely leveiled by the iiber
OF land (znG, z Res%ss IN 1901 apd the
az are combined in the zemstvo. and the highest
others, has taken upon itself an entire series Of
femIdthg m ing p9tn TO persons ana 70 prop
of its special interests
This exceptional position of the classes in Russia
course Of events which have already begun to
cuimlnate. Any excitement among the so-caled
third class always gave rise in Europe, especially
adopted to reaction Of the higher Slasses. the
p0by mol ;yora6 and clergy In Russia where
az. the higher class MOI only joins the other
places itself at the head of the anti-government
movement. indicating. with the aid of the press;
in the administration of the state This unity
different degrees the deprivation of rights, both
property and personal In Russia, with the pres
cept the very highest in the bureaucracy has any
guarantee OF the morrow. Practically, thereiore.
of all " a
:. UsgrPaton Of personal rights began long ago, and
something occasionally; until Plehye came. He was
tire population Plehve had none of the talents of
nao be Rme T' To the te Of s
TEN Of state founded solely upon force and arb
cessor OF Mauta Skuratoff. To him and to him
downfall of its uniaWfuI existence The Russian
nature is usually slow. but the liberation of pent-
might have taken twenty years Since the as
m a short Tps Space 9nf ~ has
drawn near to the threshold Of rsv0pti0n hqyng
eonfiicf ''oO0e'' 'i'e ''io'''S 'oAu %
This is the threshold. but revolution Itself has
not begun those who think so are much mistaken,
For actual revolution we lack the most imPGTJais
especially difficult 10 acquire. We must have ten
taken place to teach u7 how to lead an attack
properly p The masses must be ea1cIIeq bStIed Of
the people toward the military without which the
able. We have already heard the cries OF the
crowd, not scattered cries but unanimous. ad-
dressed TO the officers: ''Hangman!" "Oprichnlks"
Ghe name of the bodyguard OF Ivan the Terrible
which has become synonymous with 'murderers' J;
When tnat cry coming from the soul shall
then shall be able to say that we have crossed
the threshold OF revolution.
Every ARRAY shows the increased necessity OF
organization, and during the pause that organiza-
tion Will proceed until the next conflict comes, pre-
cipitated by some act OF the government, whose
habtuaI blindness is always a provocative. The
volcano always subsidies for a time.
Especial perSpiCaCtty IL not necessary to preSage
our near future For the time being everything is
going along as if By a preconcerted programme, 1t
Is like a we'll staged revolutionary drama. The
action moves naturally In the first act the people
come unarmed TO ask for their rights. They
met with bullets and sabreS No expert theatrical
is again. It Is the entT acte. The Srrik-
ers exhausted by hunger, return to their accus-
toned duties, but the government. feeling the
strength of its superiority begins wholesale arrests
and appoints generally an incapable dictator. who
does not finch before the gallows.
A bloody vengeance begins. It is not the work Of
secret terrible, coming without warning. reaction
wea kens, if aCkno wledglng in the bomb en-
emy which II cannot conquer by its "OpTichniks.
Then. with the first weakening OF the reaction
comes q fresh movement % the masses this time
however not huInby supplicatng. but boldy-not
with prayers but with demands. II the government
strong enough to oppose resistance, again comes
repression reaction Then again the bombs. Again
VIC eakening. The story may be repeated several
times before the end. but finally there comes a
general movement, this Ume shattering everything.
Judging by present conditions, there would be
insufficient strength for second reaction. There
testing of each new step. Viewed in the light of
history. the period Of bargaining. the period of
chaos, should continue about two years more Then
the storm Will clear our political horizon. As Yet
the adversaries have brought too few sacrifices 10
the altar. Humanity has never yet purchased hap
pness cheaply