The Minneapolis journal. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn.) 1888-1939, 1905-10-08
Fake Weather Forecasts.


of an interesting study in recent
number of the Popular Science Monthly.
The author, F.. J. Walz, who is a
weather forecaster in the agricultural
department, handles the weather proph-
cts without gloves, and while he does
not attempt to dogmatize on the sub
iect, certainly shows that the average
weather prophet makes his predictions
upon unscientifc and usually insult
fcient data. H..
In all times men have had their
weather prophets. Those who followed
the sea in the times of sails, having
the most cause to observe the weather,
were the pioneers in the business. Fol
lowing them came race Of land
prophets who aspired to a more scien-
tifc knowledge than that gained by
merely observing the weather at one
time and attempting to predict upon
a set of circumstances somewhat sim
liar return Of a similar kind Of
weather. It was but natural, says
Mr.. Walz, that in the lookout for
weather signs men should scan the
heavens and should have associated the
heavenly bodies in some way with
weather changes. Thus astronomy has
been closely associated in the popular
mind with meteorology. This, he says,
accounts for the ease with which people
are gulled by prophets who base their
predictions upon movements Of the
planets. The changes in the moon were
long favorite basis Of weather predic-
lions. The moon changes once in seven
days, and the weather in most latitudes
changes from one to two times in the
same period. Hence, by noting coinci-
dences and overlooking failures Of the
signs and the weather to agree, pretty
big theory could be announced.
But. the weather prophets business
grew still larger and the profession took
in astronomy in it's effort to establish
a. great cycle which would be the key
to explain all the atmospheric phenom-
ena. This is done by one noted prophet
by assuming that the sun spots affect
the weather and that the planet Jupiter
is the great factor in the production OF
sun spots. The sun spots show maxi
mum once in I'LL years, while the
planet Jupiter makes the circle Of his
orbit in 1l.86 of our years. Here, then
was substantial agreement. Jupiter
got around and made the sun spots and
the sun spots determined the weather
Very fine, except that the difference OF
quarters of year between the
maximum Of sun spots and the period
of Jupiter is sufficient to destroy the
scientific value of this theory if it
originally had any.
A great many other Of the theories OF
half-scientifc weather prophets are de-
molished by Mr.. Walz, who calls upon
the newspapers to discourage the pub
LEGATION Of predictions founded upon un
warranted assumptions. All long-range
weather predictions are guesses which
depend for their credence upon coinci
dences. It is not remarkable that coin
cidences occur, since the weather is
forever changing and the prophets
make forecasts sufficiently general tc
catch some Of the storms, either coming
or going.
On the other hand, the United States
weather bureau aims to gather informa
ton rather than to make sweeping pre-
dictions. It is true the bureau would
be glad Of rule whereby it might
gage the weather for a season or q
month in advance, and will reject nc
knowledge brought to it or which it
can evolve from it's own observations
but the weather millennium is not yet