New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1905-05-23
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR.
CITY POPULATION ESTIMATES.
Director North Defends the Use OF the
a Priori Method of Calculation.
the Editor Of The tribune.


SIR My attention has been called to an editorial
article In The Tribune of May Is entitled 'Msleao-
ing Census Figures" in which you say that you
have repeatedly called attention to the worthless
ness of these Census Bureau estimates referring
to the estimates of the population OF the cities Oh
the United States in the years intermediate be-
tween the decennial censuses.
The editorial obviously written under COM
plete msapprehension OF the reasons for making
these population estimates. The estimates cannot
be worthless If they serve useful purpose in the
best manner possible under conditions they exist
Annual estimates of municipal populations are nee
essary to determine the death rate per thou
sand In cities The Census Office has under
taken to furnish these annual estimates. at the
urgent request of the medical and other authorities
of principal cities take the place Of the local
estimates, which must otherwise be annually made
in connection with the vital statistics of every city
where registration exists These local estimates are
never made by any uniform rule; and necessarily
when the death rates of different cities COM
pared except in census years. the result is great
confusion and uncertainty and error to the rela
tive health conditions of different cities The CEN
sus estimates, misleading as they sometimes must
be- are not misleading the statistics they are
made to supersede. When municipal death rates
are computed thereon they at least have the advan-
tage of being computed in accordance with uni
form rule and rule which has the approval of the
highest scientific authority believe that the med
lcal profession will generally agree that instead OF
being worthless" the estimates serve most valu-
able purpose. This conclusion is wholly sustained
by the correspondence of the Census Office
exaggerated in the article in question The census
method of estimating has been carefully tested
close 70 the fact the figures come in the older and
The Michigan State census Of 1904 is the first OPP
portunity which has occurred for testing the value
population This census showed M cities
in that State to have 81 2s4 inhabitants as est
$40. difference of 1854 inhabitants, the State
ported by the State census was 2;5SoLG6; as est
for the entire State, therefore. exceeds the exact
ngures BY 1872 or six-tenths OF per cent These
results Of the Census Bureau method of estimating
The population OF Detroit the largest city in Mlch
1904 the actual population returned by the census
ference OF only 45 or less than one-tenth OF per
cent, between the estimated and the actual emu
AS TO municipalities in which loss in population
by previous e ce1snses the bureau has
estimates except In the case OF registration cities
where intermediate censuses are taken the official
hsures are, OF course substituted for the esti-
prior to 1910 '----'O ~ Int iu'O'o
The intimation of The Tribune that police cen.
population in intercensal years is surprising to
surround the taking Of these so-caIied ''censuses
l have never heard of a police census in any city
eTal census to have been exaggerated. many OF
them astonishingly This is natural and in
evttable, view Of the careless conditions under
which they taken. You refer particularly to
the recent police census in Washington. In taking
this census the policemen did not enter any
schedule the name Of the head Of the family. nor
the number Of members in each family, but simply
turned In to the different precincts statement of
the number Of people they found, or thought they
found, on each side Of each square. There Is OF
course, no possible method OF checking such a
count, and the utility of IT IS open to grave ques
ton. Permit me to indicate few of the reasons
which justify the last statement.
In 1890 the federal census returned 230392 the
population of the District of Columbia In 1897 the
police census for the District taken which
found 1852 persons Three years later in 1900 the
federal census returned the population of the Dis
trct as 27S71S showing increase Of but $50 per-
in the population of the District in three years
assuming that the police of 1897 correct
The police of April, 1905, returns popula-
ton of S22,445 showing increase of 1927 since
1900 equivalent gain OF s745 per year against
average annual gain of 1888 indicated by the fed
pletely accounted for by the fact that the police
enumeration includes in the population of Washing
ton residents of suburban towns in Maryland AMI
Virginia who are engaged in business in the city
and necessarily includes also much Of the tempo
rary and floating population Of the city, which is
ways very large in the month of April Under the
methods of the police census it was impossible to
discriminate between the actual and the temporary
population of the city.
1 respectfully submit that the census estimates
afford a much safer basis for the computation Of
S. n. D. NORTH,
Director of the Census
Washington, May 20 1905