The Jersey City news. (Jersey City [N.J.]) 1889-1906, 1905-08-26
CHIL DhN in THE:
UNITED STATES
Census Bulletin Gives Their
Proportion to the Pcpula
tion In Various Localities.
GREATER IN COUNTRY PLACES
DECLINE NOTED IN TIE NORTH
AND WEST FOREIGN WOMEN
HAVE MORE CHILDREN THAN
NATIVE.

A study in the proportion of children
in the United States was published by
the Bureau of the Census to-day as Bull
letin p. This is a statistical discussion,
written by Professor Walter f. Wilcox,
Of Cornell University, and based upon
data already published in the main re-
ports Of the Twelfth Census.
Although the analysis offers many sug-
gestions as to probable tendencies in the
birth rate of the United States, it IS,
primarily, not a study in birth rates, but,
as its title indicates, study in the pro-
portion Of children No census can fur
nish all the information needed to cop-
pute the birth rate. or number of births
in year to each thousand persons. nor
has this information been obtained for
the United States, or any considerable
part of it, by any other agency The at
tempts TO approximate the birth rate on
the basis of census figures are far from
satisfactory The birth rate in the Uni-
ted States, past or present, is therefore
unknown.
But apart from the inherent difficulties
| of determining the birth rate from census
figures, Professor Wilcox regards the
proportion of children as being in some
respects more fruitful field of study.
since it shows not merely the number of
children who are born, but the number
who are reared. THE proportion Of
children" he says, '4is an approximately
accurate and significant clue to the
amount of new blood that is being
brought into the country by natures
processes of reproduction and growth
/ The method used in this report is a
sc0mB partisan. BIZ period by States and
geographic divisions, and by races, of
| the proportions the number of children
bears to the total population. or to the
number Of women of collaborating age.
| The number of children under ) years
| of age and the number of women 10 to-
49 years of age are given by the census
of 1880 and all subsequent censuses.
while the number of children under 1G
is given as far back as the census Of
1880. 1t is possible, also, to estimate
the number Of children under 10 years of
age for the earlier censuses.
Some of the conclusions reached may
be summarized as follows:
At the beginning Of the nineteenth
1 century the children under ten years of
| age constituted one-third and at the end
less than onerfeurth of the total popula-
ton. The decrease in this proportion be-
gan as early as the decade 1910 to 1920,
and continued uninterruptedly, though it
| varying rates, in each successive decade.
This Of itself, however, is not enough to
prove declining birth rate as the de-
crease ia tine proportion of children in
the total population may indicate merely
an increase in the average duration Of
life and the consequent survival of
larger number Of adults
| BY taking the proportion of chill
dren TO women Of child bearing age We
are able to get a more satisfactory index
Of the moyement Of the birch rate. Be
tween 1850 and 1850 it has decreased
without interruption The decrease has
| been very unequal from decade to de-
cade, but if twenty-year periods are
considered, it has been very regular. In
1860 the number of children under years
of age to 1000 women 10 to 40 years
Of age, was 634; in 1900 it was only 474
In other words, the proportion of chill
dren to potential mothers in 1900 was
only three-fourths as large as in 1860
One is thus led 10 the conclusion that
there has been a persistent decline in the
4 birth rate since 1860.
No attempt is made By the author of
the bulletin to determine the probable
causes of this decline. An extended ar
gument by Gen Francis A. Walker ii
given, suggesting that it is largely due
to the influx Of foreigners and the result
ant shock to the population instinct Of
lsthe natives There is also presented 4
discussion at length BY Or. John $. Bill
ingss pointing out what he considers the
reasons for the decline. But Professor
Wilcox, while agreeing substantially
with Doctor Billings does not express
d definite opinion, claiming that the vital
statistics Of the United States are nor
sufficiently developed to afford sound
basis Of Judgment. He notes, however.
that there has been d similar marked de-
cline il The birth rate of Australia.