Rock Island Argus. (Rock Island, Ill.) 1893-1920, 1905-07-07
PAGES 9 TO IL.
WEATHER FORECASTINC
Fallacies of Long Range System
Denounced by Experts.
EFFoRTs TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM

boAhe Oh EoreAnoWAnE the SeaaOnA
So Important and so Pressing That
the Weather BurSau's chief IL
Building md EQuIDpinE n Large
Observatory Tor the study of In
1ricnte AtmosPhericaI Problems.
The infinite deSirability OF foreknow-
ing the seasons for the benefit OF hus-
bandmen Is at once the opportunity OF
charlatans and the Justification OF ma
tional weather services. 1t aVailS lit
tie to decry the methods OF impoStOrS
or to brand them as fakIrs. The court
Of final resort must always be a COM
pariSon of results, and such Compari-
son every one can now make for him
self. Weather maps showing the actual
conditions ON every day are now pub
Hshed by practically every civilized
nation and are accessible 10 all. and
all that is needed to cure the most i'm
plicit belief in almanac predictions is
an honest comparison of these prediC-
lions for n single season with the actual
occurrences Us shown by these maps.
Conspicuous Instances OF failure. such
as those Of the artificial rain makers,
who a decade ago were given the full
est opportunity TO test and exploit their
theories, or the cOlorless results OF the
extensive campaign of lNOmbardment
as a protection against hail, which has
long been conducted IN southern Eu-
rope do not convince the crcdulouS.
Government meteorolOgistS are not
alone in the pronunciation OF the fall
lacies, absurdities and perniclous eff
forts Of SO called long range forecasts.
Professor Young, probably the fore
most American astronomer, speaking
of lunar influences. points out that the
frequency of the moons changes is so
great that it Is always easy to find in
stances by which TO verify IA belief that
changes OF the moon control conditions
on the earth. \ change of the moon
necessarily occurs about once a week.
All changes of the weather must, there
fore. occur within three and three
fourths days OF change Of the moon.
and one-haIf OF all changes ought to oc-
cur within forty-slx hours OF a change
In the moon even II there were no
causal connection whatever. Now, Il
requires only a very slight predIsposi-
ton In favor OF a belief In the effective
ness of the moons changes to make
one forget a few OF the changes that
UnquestionRbly there is a general de-
sire for an extension OF the range OF
forecasts to cover the near future and,
II possible, the coming season.
Some OF the ablest scientists of the
United States and Europe have devoted
much time and labor to the study OF
this problem. They have consulted
weather records of all countries TAX
ing note of the dates Of heavy storms
and making comparison with the posi-
tion OF the moon and planets to deter
mine If there is any discoverable CON
nection between the movement Of those
minor bodies and the sweep Of storm
eddies In the earth's atmosphere. The
consensus of opinion has been that
there IL no foundation OF fact or phiIOs-
ophy for that system Of long range fore
casts.
Students IN the primary class in
meteorOlogy learn that the ever chang
ing phenomena of the weather are all
rcferable to the action of the sun up
on the earth and its atmosphere. va
pors and gases; that the constantly
radiated energy Of the sun supports
heat, light and electric force I'm the
solar system.
The libraries OF the United States
weather bureau contain the substance
and much Of the detail Of all that is
known Of weather wisdom, ancient and
modern. and the scientists of this bu-
reau certainly are familiar with the es-
sence of this knowledge Those who
are in position to know are well
aware that every possible effort is be-
gUarr
the laws that control weather condI-
lions and meanwhile to give to those
who are vitality concerned the most
trustworthy information Obtainable. It
is matter Of commOu experience That
the notable success Of some CONNER
cial article OF merit Is sure to food
the market with spurious goods Of the
same class. which INSCRIPTIONS ven
doris spread before the indiscriminat-
ing public. The rapid strides Of the
United States weather bureau in re
cent years toward popular favor
through the widespread dissemination
Of the forecasts service made pos
sible largely by the phenomenal spread
OF the telephone and the development
OF the rural delivery scFyice-hIvc ap-
parently given a new impetus 10 IN
scientific, not 10 say uDScrupulOus, fore
casts, based upon some theory OF cy-
cies or of planetary control.
The problem of seasonal forecasts is
receiving at the hands OF the ablest
and most painstaking students Of both
continents comprehensive considera-
ton that IS certain 10 he fruitful and
far reaching I'm its ultimate results.
So important and 50 pressing IS the
work and so promising IS the field that
the chief of the weather bureau is
building and equipping a large obscrv
atOry. wherein the best talent available
will soon be employed 10 study the in
tricate and profound problems Of the
atmosphere, whose solution promises