The Manning times. [volume] (Manning, Clarendon County, S.C.) 1884-current, 1905-06-21

normally SOOd, cOuGOn SnOuld
range between S and 10 cents as
the crop news comes good or
bad. We are figuring on good
times now, not hard times.
Now, let US consider the pos.
sibilities and probabilities and
endeavor to reach a reasonable
conclusion as to the chances at
present for a supply of the raw
material the coming season. But
first, let US assume various yields
for the coming crop and arbi-
tralily distribute the surplus
which would remain from each
on Sept. 1 1906. assuming next
years consumption to be =,
900, 900 bales. 1t is obvious
that if the next crop is 1900,
900 the statistics on Sept. l..
1906 will be the same as those
on Sept. 1.19o5: or about as fol-
lows: Held by planters-222o, 900
bales-normal: spinners' stocks,
100000 bales-small; visible
American, 1,1oo, 900 bales -
moderate. With a crop Of H.
5oo,o 900 bales we would have
about as follows: Spinners'
stocks, 1880, 900 bales small;
held by planters, 12o, o,ooo-small;
visible supply, 700, ,ooo-very
small. With a crop of II, 900, 900
we would have: Spinners stocks
1000, ooo-very small; held by
planters, nothing-famine visi-
BILE supply, $40, 900 bales-fam-
inc. It is useless to proceed
further down the scale, for any
yield under 1000, 900 bales
would intensity the famine con-
ditions resulting from crop of
not over II, 600, 900 bales.
Now then, how large a yield
seems possible for the growing
crop? Deduct ia per cent from
the acreage; assume that there
is no reduction per acre in fertil-
izers: assume that the present
season will prove as perfect as
the last: assume that the boil
weevil over an increased area
will destroy no more late planted
cotton this season than early
planted cotton last season, as
sumo a late open fall, and the
yield could be 100000 maxi
mum.
How large a yield seems posi-
BILE for the growing crop? De-
duct from the present crop OF
5000, 900 bales. ia per cent
acreage; assume that tie season
will continue only 5.8 points
lower in condition than last year,
remembering that the conditions
shown in August, September and
October last year were respec-
lively the next to the highest on
record; a condition of 77.2 per
cent. being Z per cent lower than
one of 50, deduct Z per cent also,
making a deduction of 1874 per
cent from 13. 900, ,ooc bales: and
we have II, 900, 900. Then as
sumo that the boil Weevils and
frost will. between them, destroy
200, 900 bales more this year than
last, and we would have a crop
Of 10, 800, 90 bales.
How small a yield seems pos
sible for the growing crop? We
have, roughly speaking, 3 per
cent less acreage and 8 per cent
better conditions than in 1908,
when the crop was 10000, 900
bales. If conditions continues
not over 8 per cent above that
season and we have an early
general frost on an abnormally
late crop. which would destroy
at least 100000 bales, we can
have as small crop as $780,
900 bales.
If we have a good average
yield per acre, or 1877 pounds OF
lint cotton per acre, which is the
average for II years, including
the four bumper crops, the yield
will be II, 100000 bales. If we
have less than a good average
yield per acre we shall have a
still greater cotton famine.
I assume the acreage to be
20, ,112, 900 as estimated by the
correspondents of the Agricul-
tural Department. | ignore
Hyde's afterthought that the
acreage only meant acreage ac-
tually planted. If they plant on
to June Is, the acreage will be
as large as last year; and if they
plant on to July l, it will be still
larger. But they are not going
to plant on, and the cotton would
make nothing if they did. The
planting was stopped in order
to try to save the planted areas
from the grass. However, any
little planting done after May
25 is more than Offset by aband-
onment of acreage. | have just
returned from a trip through a
part of the eastern belt where
they claim that the crop condi-
tions are the best in the South
All the cotton I saw that was
cultivated to good stands was no