Bisbee daily review., 1905-08-23


 It is doubtful if most persons are
 aware of the real strength of the cop per situation. To most the increase
 in the copper output of the metal in recent years seems extraordinary, leading, possibly, to a fear of overpro-
 duction. But the facts are not nearly
 so unique as might be supposed.
 The estimated yield of the world
 for 1904 was 62S,150 tons. Compar-
 ing this with Sl9,G72 tons for 1892, we
 have an increase of over 100 per
 cent. But if we compare 1892 with
 1880, we find gain of just about the
 same proportions, the 1880 total being
 153,959 tons. So far as mere supply is concerned, the last half of the pc riod since 1880 has not shown a much
 more wonderful ratio of gain than the first half. On the other hand. the
 ratio of consumption has obviously
 been greater. In the latter sos the
 strides taken in the use of electricity
 were reflected in a greater stimulus
 to the demand for copper. Of late years this tendency has been especial
 iy marked. The present price for the metal indicates how close con sumption has kept up with produc- ton. There is somewhere, of course, a point a. which production would be excessive, necessitating a recession in price, and it is on that point that the most careful students of the copper situation are now trying to figure.
 There is an unmistakeable tenden- cy on the part of those most influen- tial in the industry to prevent a repe- tition of the thoughtless methods of 1S9S-1eO1. It is now seen that the price was advanced too fast, and that artificial conditions were too preva- lent. The present quotation would seem justified by the essential facts. In 1897 the average price was some thing under Il 12 cents, which, judged by a long series of years, was less than the normal figure. A gain of, say, 40 per cent since then is not out of proportion to the general increase in commodity prices, as a result of the heavy increase in the gold output. The price appears this time to have gone up on natural conditions. The visible supply in these days is in- as compared with that which used to be reported ten yeal s ago. The stocks go quicker into con Thus, for example, 1905 started in with 16,734 tons in sight, as compared with 45, S17 at the be- ginning of 1896.
 The visible supply on Jan. l, 1899, was 104,091 tons. That was the re- rult of the French copper syndicate's attempt to corner the metal. The market paid a heavy penalty for that foolish effort. Copper which sold around Il cents in 1880, was put up to 17.G0 cents in 1888, and even as high as 20 cents. The syndicate came to grief in 1889. and in Sep .ember of that year the metal was down to II cents, and by 1894 it had cents.
 In 1898 began new copper specu- ] Iation, which carried the price of the metal to 19 3-S cents in April, 1899. A year later it was IT 1-4 cents, and in January 1901, it was IT cents. The street will recall what happened later n 1901. The cut in Amalgamat- i ed dividend was followed by a 13-cent quotation in December, and in Janu- ary, 1902, by an 11-cent quotation. ] That was the bottom.
 The soundness of the present cop per situation is attested by the fact that since 1902 the price of the metal has normally adjusted itself. In 1902 the average quotations was 12.1O, cents; in 1903, 1872 cents, and in 1904, 1901 cents. The rise in 1905 has been dCe to a great increase in demand, accompanied by an enormous of exports. Sixteen-cent l copper is now predicted, the present quotation being fractioDally below that figure. The salient fact is, that around 16 cents there is a strong in citement to develop new properties. Around 13 cents a normal develop | ment of the industry was all that could be expected.