New-York tribune., 1905-01-16
MONEY AND BUSINESS.


securities investment buying falling to contrib
ute much support, and If manipulators at
tempted to maintain the market they were only
fairly Successful. In so far as railway ana IN
dustriaI conditions concerned. the OUTLOOK Is
bright and an easy money market continues TO
encourage speculation; but the absence OF pubic
buying and general feeling of uneasiness nave
tended to develop irregularity. One adverse lhnu-
ence was the announcement that the Pennsyl-
vania Railroad contemplated large bond issue
which was quickly reflected in the constituent
properties The local market is also affected by
the continued outgo of gold, although its only dt
rect influence can come through strlngency In the
money market, which is not yet apparent IN
ternationaI events should have no bad effect on
the stock market arbtrage dealings are
small. and the weekly statements Of the banks OF
England and France very satisfactory
There was a rally at the end OF the week, led oy
Union Pacific.
1t begins to look as if the money market was
entering upon a period of normally profitable
rates For almost year the average has been
low, because of restricted demand In commercial
and speculative channels and an unprecedented
supply, as evidenced by record breaking per
capita circulation and gross stocks OF gold IN the
Treasury far beyond all precedent These con-
ditions all changing, gold stocks declining
because OF phenomenally heavy exports. and the
revival or business Gaining IOr HloIS u4OASJ III
mercantile channels. Thus far speculative re-
quirements have not increased, which is one OF
the best signs that improvement Will continue in
other departments. Each week the available
supply OF gold bars at the Assay Office is en-
gagged in advance for export, and the Bank or
France was so anxious to enlarge its supply OF
specie that interest at the rate OF 21z per cent
was allowed gold in transit. This made 1t
possible to ship a considerable amount Of gold
coin. Withdrawal of government deposits will
fall most heavily on this centre. but funds are
arriving from the interior in the large volume
anticipated, the latest exhibit Of the associated
banks indicating unusually liberal gains in both
specie and legal tenders, despite shipments
abroad.
Confidence IS daily growing stronger In the
business world, and the opinion is becoming al
most unanimous that the year 1905 will be one
of exceptional prosperity in this country, unless
another spasm of reckless speculation should
overdiscount future improvement and produce
the usual reaction, followed by a monotonous
term of assimilation. Although forewarned IS
supposed TO be forearned, IL is by no means GER
tain that conservative counsel will prevail
that the new year cannot be insured against this
element of uncertainty. That trade is ac-
tive than it was year ago is clearly shown by
bank exchanges and other statistics, while traffic
returns very satisfactory in the aggregate.
despite more or less interruption from inclement
weather; and the financial strength is empha-
sized by the low commercial death rate. insol-
vencies being unusually light at this time. when
annual settlements naturally disclose all the
weak spots. Fall River cotton mills and South
ern bitUminous mines still suffering
labor controversies. but the latest reports indi-
cate that there is a growing disposition among
the wage earners to resume, despite the fact that
the organizations nearer an agreement.
As usual in this land OF extremes there is a
disposition TO force the price of cotton too low
just as a year ago II being inflated beyond
the bounds of reason. Considering the statis-
tical position. both to supply Of raw material
and manufactured product. and receipts and ex-
ports, there appears more logical excuse for
quotations OF less than seven cents now than
there was for Tx cents last year. But con-
sI'ners OF cotton are like the lambs of Wall
Street-they afraid to purchase when prices
are severely depressed. The world will consume
an enormous quantity of the Southern staple
before the next crop begins to come forward in
September, and, in addition to more or less re-
duction in acreage, II cannot be hoped that con-
ditions as to weather and insects will be
favorable as in the last season. Prices of wheat
are stubbornly held, although the -four mills are
Ky no means normally active and exports
promise to make poor comparison with last
year which the worst in many seasons As
a partial Offset there is decided Improvement
in the outgo of corn, which may be expected TO
continue. as stocks heavy and receipts at
primary markets are large. in spite Of Interrupt
ton to transportation by snow.
Idle machinery is steadily decreasing in the
leading manufacturing industries. Woollen mills
making splendid progress. with prices fully
sustained, and limited stocks of material
make the position of holders almost impregnabIe.
Quotations of wool have not only risen far above
all recent records but the average of one hun
dTed domestic grades is about cent higher than
the top point in 1890. Buyers of cotton goods
still limit their operations to immediate needs,
hoping that the decline in raw material will soon
bring better terms but the mills make few con-
cessions as yet Exports light, although a
good movement is anticipated after the Chinese
New Year. Forwardings of footwear from Bos-
ton for the year 1904 fell only per cent behind
the record breaking year preceding and sur
passed all previous records, while 1905 is opening
most auspiciously. despite the fact that higher
prices have caused much changing of grades.
Practically every available coke oven and blast
furnace in the Pittsburg region is working. and
the whole iron and steel industry is in better
condition than at any recent date. New business
is coming forward freely. and a very large tom
mage is under negotiation.
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