New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1905-05-23
CITY POPULATION ESTIMATES.

We print in another column letter from the
Hon S. n D. North the Director of the Census,
in which he vigorously defends the accuracy
and value Of the city population estimates issued
annually by the Census Bureau. We have fire.
Quently commented on the misleading character
of these estimates, and recently we called at
tention TO the fact that while the bureaus esti-
mate gave Washington a population of 800, 1888
in 1905, an enumeration taken by the District of
Columbia police showed a population Of 322, 572
We stated that the discrepancy was not at all
surprising because the Census Bureaus figures
were obtained by an arithmetical process which
took no account Of possible variations in a citys
rate Of growth. The bureau assumes that every
city's annual increase IN population since 1900
must be one-tenth of its total increase between
1890 and 1900. We have northumberland we
think with 1ustice-that this is a misleading as
SUMPTION for the great majority Of American
cities grow unevenly, and the progress made in
one decade is no safe index TO the progress like
ly TO be made IN the next.
Mr.. North seems to think that the arithmeticaI
method Of computation works out fairly well in
practice, and he cites the recent State census
| ID Michigan to support his contention. We have
not denied that States progress is fairly meas
urable by the priori method Conditions equal
lie themselves In large areas, one city's varia-
tons correcting anothers. In one city mathe-
NAUTICAL computation may hit the mark exactly
as in Detroit-but in anOther-as in Washington
1t may go far astray; for, with all due deduc-
tons for carelessness, IT is hardly probable that
the police in Washington made an overcount of
twenty thousand. 1t seems more reasonable to
presume that Washington is growing faster now
than it grew between 1890 and 1900. Condi-
mons may have changed materially: and as Mr.
North himself admitted in a letter to the Score
tary OF Commerce and Labor written last
June the Census Bureaus method is attended
with accuracy only when it concerns condi-
'tOns which cannot be affected by local infiu-
'ences and variants"
But it is just in the growth of towns and cities
that local influences and variants" come most
decisively into play. One hundred examples
Chicago's population increased between 1880
and 1890 ITO per cent. Between 1890 and 1900
IT increased ga per cent Certainly the arith-
metical method will not show at what rate # Is
increasing now. New-York City's population
increased % per cent between 1880 and 1890
greater NETWORKS gain between 1890 and 1900
was 80 per cent. Here, too are variations
winch make futile resort TO the priori method
or computation Baltimore's rate OF incres se
was 81 per cent between 1880 and 1890 and III
between 1880 and 1900. In the Western States
where the conditions which determine progress
are still in the making. changes in rate are still
more eccentric.
In crucial instances. in fact, the Census Rr-
reau refuses to apply its own method Omaha's
population in 1890 was 140452 In 1900 n rvov
1880. BY the bureau formula # sbouId have
been about $1,000 in 1908; but the 1903 buIIe+in
arbitrarily gives Omaha a population of 113 .361
1aisest0n Ii 1900 had population Of 81. 7S9.