Gunnison news-champion and tribune., 1905-01-13
Loas RAaes vessAsr essseaanis1
=. Branaanhssw tossuassss bsnsel
N.4 tk.r bsreas.


= =. Br~nds"h~sx toss~sssss b~a..r
From the earliest times iatere~, IN
the weather tor approaching Seasons,
m v,e~ ot It's hearing upon agrscuitar-
al and other perseGts, naturally
prompted efforts 10 predict the
weather Note was made of the con
ditioa. that preceded good or bad
weather, and the reappearaBce of
certain conditions wac taken as a
basis for predicting certain weather
To these observations were added
others, such a. the flight Of birds.
the movement or action OF animals,
even aches aud pains OF the human
body, and the like, resulting IN the
acceptance as true of many shrewd
snd interesting oi,seI vatlons, but
more we're absurd Astronomical
phenomena, soch az phases Of the
moon and the conjunction of the
planets. Of all most irrational, were
and are still credited by some with
control Of the weather, not~ithstand-
ing presistant observations ON the
part OF the leading astronomers and
me,eorologists of the world have
demonstrated them 10 he devoid OF
influence,
la modern times meteorology is
restricted to the department of natural
philosophy which treats of the
weather, and is naturally the most
dill,calt and involved of sciences and
thus far incapable of reduction 10
absolute accuracy, though efforts to
attain this end have accomplished
much. The United States and the
leading governments of the old world
are ,levoting incalcuable labor in
efforts to envoive from simultaneous
observations of daily weather con
diticns, the laws which control and
influence the weather, and such ad
vance has been made in this regard
as to enable forecasts to be made ac-
curately for As hours in advance ex-
cept when affected by newly arising
conditions.
Every effort, in scientific manner,
is also being made to acertain laws
that will make it possible to forecast,
in a general way, whether an ap-
preaching season will conform to or
depart from the weather common t.
such seasons; this time, however, has
not vet arrived, but unlimited OBJ
servations thus far made have
demonstrated the impossibility OF
exceeding "a period OF two or three
davs in accurate forecasting for a
particular date.
1t is obvious that an accurate fore
cast for particular date can only be
made from known conditions. The
forecast itself is predetermination
of a continuance of or change in the
conditions known to exist at time oi
forecast. 1t is equally obvious, there
fore that if a change in the atmos
pheric conditions occurs after fore
cast and during the term thereof, MOI
scientifically anticipat I'd at the time
of the forecast, the forecast Itsel
must fail These changes in atmos
pheric conditions are constantly oc-
curing during the term of As hour
forecast, and were certain to occur
not once, but frequently, during tn
term of long range forecast, and arr
wholly beyond human anticipation o
scientific knowledge.
This demonstrates conclusivel.
that, unless the long range forecaster
are gifted with divine foresight an'
roreknowledge of these changes,
forecast for an indefinite period II
the future can possess no value, an'
,te verifica,ien is purely an accident
or rather coincidence. lmportan
interests are effected by the condition
of the weather, and influenced by
foreknowledge of its condition. i
is clear. therefore, that any long rang
forecast, impossible in nature, mus
certainly do untold harm. A prophe
has always and will ever sttr; ct at
tention. We are prone to look mt