New-York tribune., 1905-04-23
The Financial World.

x
Following,sa rule prevailing for some weeks
past, the security market. after opening strons
On Monday. was put under severe pressure anu
many price concessions were forced.
1t would be strange Il this register OF huctua-
ton were much different It is not the essential
OF healthful market that prices shall go contin-
ually higher and higher without halt or recession;
pendulum phases in the course Of the very best
market are naturaI-heIpful. indeed. And the
present market at this stage may not be fairly
expected to escape what Is normal Many STOCKS
have advanced tremendously. Some instances
there are where It Is difficult 10 find attending
warrant for all the rise that Is recorded Thus
develops a sensitiveness TO shock beyond the re-
cent rule: reactions be more readily pre-
duced--technical features in the situation be-
come somewhat modified We reach a period
for discrimination. Points and tips 20 the
rounds rushing: but prudence win closely scan
their origin and the reasona bleness OF the1n- \
good many bulls ardent and OTacuisr now, were
frosty skeptics all last year-disputinS every
progressive step gainsayng every disclosure OF
our broadening prosperity. intTuding every pos
sihe hiudrance, full Of evil prophecies and work.
ing overtime to make results sthl worse than
prophecy.
such converts are no asset in any market
II is not inspiring either TO nd recruits of this
calibre picking out for booming tactics stocks
already OVsFInaiipuldtetL
While in reason it is wise-ueedfuf-to take
this scrutinizing attitude. what Of The markets
position generally:
Half a dozen arguments" are urged by the
bear contingent: THAT there is Il changed
situation. in that have two parties in
the market--buil leadership finally meeting op-
position from interests. both speculative and in
vestment. who believe prices too high; 2-That
"the public holders and owners OF stocks are
overloaded; 3-That dangerous conflicts wage
between rival factions of mIlioneires, as in
dIcated in the Northern Securities and Equita-
bic incidents; 4-That Government supervision
IL a menace. proposing rates 80 low to threat
en- disaster: 5-That money market conditions
are discouraging. that japanese and Russian
necessities must soon force stringeney through
out the world: 6--That market quotations far
outFeach intrinsic value. that current prices are
unnatural that their own weight must break
them.
Is a single one Of these criticisms reasonable?
There are 1.-TWO parties IN the market; there
have been two parties in the market right
along: throughout the past year not a single
advance has been made except in the face OF
contest upon the part of practically all the
talent Of the Stock Exchange; 2-Persistent
and emphatic up till the bear assertion
mas Oesn IndL the pODllc II liot IN Iile h4aiA
and could not be induced to come into the
market-this Overloaded" theory being merely
a new concoction. virtually all the commission
houses In Wall Street reporting that they are
carrying fewer stocks on margin now than ever
was the case in any normal market. such state
ments being certified by the relative lghtness
OF brokers' loans, while as I'd investments the
unnlistakable disappearance from the Street Of
bonds and high priced stocks reveals continued
absorption by outright purchase, cOnclusively
testified 20 by spontaneous OversubscriptiOn FOR
every new standard issue offered; S-War and
rumors Of war largely fanciful that no
circumstantiaI evidence anywhere appears or
even serious disagreement. much less of "cOn-
fict" current floods of sensationalism being
easily traceable to adverse srock-Jobbery
sources Mr. Hartman and his colleagues in
Union Pacific having by overt act done not one
thing that can be fairly even suspected as an
attempt at disturbance while Equitable revela-
tions (nauseating 70 sensible some OF
them are) IN no way involve general financial
detriment; 4--Only they who are mentally ex-
travagaut enough TO regard fair Government
supervision as Government cOnhsCatiOn
worry over the proposal 70 have traffic rates
stable and equitable-fOr extlnguishing the "a
vOrtism of rebate falls not at all short OF splen-
did public service; 5-Threats OF money mar
ket disturbance. much hippOdTOmed a month
ago are reduced now, according to every fair
banking authority, into a phantom, call loan
rates refusing to stay as high as 4 per cent,
with funds available In illiInltabIe volume bare
" above 3 per cent. time contracts running
months ahead-and this coincident with active
normal use Of funds IN business channels wholly
outside Of Wall Street; 6-Market value left TO
bear oracIes is never otherwise descrtbable than
unnaturally high and about to break--in the
present instance finding significant commentary
and disposal in the sturdiness with which all
the ramming and jamnIing processes Of adr0it
bear manlpulators are Offset by failure 10 pro-
duce more than occasional reactions, limited in
extent and temporary in duration
Now turning from negation 70 affirmation.
what are the facts warrauting hopeTulness-
confidence? The recital may be deemed hack
neyed but none the less II is impressive: l.
Crop results for series OF years piling up
agricultural wealth 20 extent never before
known-and present crop prospect almost In
comparable: 2-Industrial development follow
ing agricultural prosperity TO a point where
virtually every important plant In the United
States is crowded with orders beyond capacity,
with substantial wage advances the rule; ;}--
Resultant railroad tonnage Of volume so large
that the one question harassing traffic man
ayers is to furnish adequate carrying facilities
and this at time following huge expenditures
for physical betterments when railroads can
retain larger percentage In the net than ever
before: 4-GrOwth Of exports OF manufactures
with continued strides toward mastery OF the
worlds trade; j-AccumuiatiOn of surplus
wealth. heaped up in the banks o. the country
pressing every moment for investment, but up
to date abstaining from speculation; 6--Conse-
uuent interest rates for money far below parity
with the interest and dividend yield ~ standard
securities.
PessImisn brays. Facts suIfce for confidence