New-York tribune., 1905-11-05
WINS VICTORY EXPECTED
PLURALITY ABOUT 5000.
Big Gain in Anti- I Tan,n1d'ay Alder
manic Representation.

Cellan anc Hearst and that WINS will get at
least $4,000.
The basis for Republican faith is that Wins,
By his magnificent campaigning, will command
pretty nearly the solid Republican vote
throughout the city. What he will lose TO
Hearst and Mcclellan viii be In part Onset oy
recruits from independent Democrats
The normal Republican vote IL 100000 De-
Quoting q shrinlsaee OF $4,000 to Hearst and MO-
Cisisn and adding accessions OF $4,000 from lhe
independents will leave Mr. WINS hrst IN 'he
rHcs with $4,000 votes more than his nearest
rival Whether that nearest opponent Will De
Hearst or Mcclellan 1t IS impossible to say
Han the election been yesterday, Hearst would
have been second in the race. TaInmany's Law
fab ma. of money day after tomorrow is likely
70 Leave him tn third place
MR. HALPINs STATEMENT.
rhs basis for Mr. HaIpin's belief that WINS
vtI1 win Is set forth In the following statement
made for The Tribunes forecast Mr.. Halptn
said:
Mr.. wins has conducted g. marvellous cam
paixn. He has, IN turn. commanded the atten-
don, the respect and the admiration of those
elements OF the community whose interest and
concern for the government Of this city is that
1t shall be one which Will make for the Whole
welfare OF our people. From the ATTRIBUTES MI
WINS has manifested throughout the campaign,
with his known Unimpeachable character, his
broad experience with the affairs of the govern
the citizens Of this city that their interests may
be safely placed In his honorable and able hands
Hearst and Mcclellan will divide the Demo @
cratic vote less about 10000 independent DEM
oorats who Will not vote for Mcclellan ana can
not vote for Hearst and who will vote for 1Vlns;
Il as Ii conceded Hearst receives the great ma
Sor1ty of his votes from Democrats, it follows
that az the Hearst vote grows large the vote OF
Mcclellan as the Tammany nominee dlminlsnes @
accordingly, and, in the very nature OF the slt.
URtion, In the degree to which the electlon o.
Hearst would appear possible the certainty OF
the defeat of Mcclellan becomes more probable.
submit the deduction just stated as the
vtew of Republicans whom Tammany is claim
ine for Mcclellan on its cry that the menace or
Hearst threatens to induce these Republicans
60 make up the OBJECTIONS in Tammanys RANKS
to Hearst The expression of this view VIII pe
made manifest on next Tuesday when the atti-
tude of Republicans generally will be not to de-
feat but one OF the candidates, but all OF them
In the election of WINS. And not the least I'M
oortant factor in the judgment determining this
Tesult is the fact that the next Mayor Of New
York City will serve for four years
MR. IvINs's VIEW.
Mr.. Iytns's personal managers estimate his
,u,ts st e45o00 The following forecast is In
harmony with Mr. Ivins's views of the situa-
6on:
m. ,eeIstration this year was 647, ,0S9. De-
Quoting from this the normal proportion of regis
srstion not voting and the scattering vote De-
longing to the Socialists. Prohibitionists, etc.
the total vote for Wins, Hearst and Mcclellan
Is estimated at bSS,o5l-
The most recent vote which can be taken as
u safe basis for comparison is the vote for Gov
ernor In 1902 The Republican candidate In
that year received "a per cent OF the registered
vote IN New-York. losing the city by 1ZZ,coU.
the largest adverse plurality ever encountered
by q Republican candidate in New-York City
There was large detection that year OF nor
maIly Republican votes. The "a per cent which
remained undoubtedly represents the low water
mark of the Republican vote in New-York
Estimating upon this basis, Mr.. WINS Will
have 100000 Republican votes alone. The
charge that he is not receiving loyal and ener-
Eetic support from the Republican organlzauon
Is absolutely without foundation. 1t Is one or
the usual Tamnany tricks to be expected at
this time In addition to 220,ooO Republican
votes Mr.. WINS will receive not less than 25,oOo
independent votes making his total at least
This viii leave s43s31 votes to be divided be-
tween Mcclellan and Hearst. Whether McClel-
Ian or Hearst will get the larger proportion OF
this is a matter of speculation, but there is not
the slightest doubt that the Tammany Han vote
has been split in two by Hearst
A vote for Mcclellan in order to head on
Hearst would be the rankest IoIiy, LOT MI
disintegrated by Hearst. Mcclellan Is ALREADY
defeated WINS, on the contrary, mas the song PIG
vote of 100000 Republicans and at least Z3,ooo
independents behind him, and II the IalnInahy
vote not only has been split in two. but mas
40 far gone over to Hearst that there is any
danger. however remote, OF electing him, the
only safe way for Democrats, independents ahd
independent Republicans who dlstrust Hearst
and fear his policies will be to vote for WINS.
To vote for Mcclellan in order TO defeat Hearst
IS simply throwing the vote away Ii such a
eT election
wAvERING REPUBLICANS RALLY.
Republicans have not been stampeded by the
sxolf' cry raised by the Mcclellan men The
vigorous campaign work OF William NJ. WINS has
rallied wavering Republicans. put the spirit OF
fight in them and won the support of thousands
of independent Democrats.
Straw votes. polls, public demonstrations-all
show Enthusiastically that the Democratic ranks
are hopelessly divided. Hearst has captured
nearly half the voters usually voting the Tam
many ticket. A flood of cash on Election Day
may bring back some of these. The ratio of
defections to Hearst is four Democrats to one
Republican. If Hearst gets close to 115,0OO
votes as now seems possible, one-fifth. Or $4,000.
may be Republicans, the remainder Democrats
The normal Republican vote IN this city is $780,
COO Hearst could take $4,000 and Mcclellan
16oO0 and still leave WINS with winning mar
gin. assuming that WINS will receive the support
Of 1900 independent Democrats.
A serious Republican detection to Mcclellan
looked probable two weeks ago Mr.. Ivins's ag-
eres..ne work on the stump has dissipated that
danger Republicans everywhere seem TO be
awake to the fact that instead Of smashing one
Democratic ticket they can, by supporting WINS.
beat both Mcclellan andl Hearst, and for the
arst time in a generation make a clean job of it.
1EgoME'S ELECTION SEEMS CERTAIN.
There can be little doubt about the election OF
Jsrome The Appellate Division said his name
.ould not go on the Republican ballot That
means the probable loss of several thousand