Willmar tribune. [volume] (Willmar, Minn.) 1895-1931, 1905-02-08
LON RANGE FORE CASTS.
:. 3. outram Treats the Subject in =
Scientific Manner Showing
up Many Falacies.

~~~se
the %so-called iong-range
forecasters which have
sprung up amongst us so rapidly in
recent years, and in doing so I shall
endeavor to show you how they came
for public attention, how their work
can easily be found to be totally un-
and also that their so-called
forecasts have .ben seriously injur-
ious to health and pecuniary wei
fare.
Previous to the establishment of
meteorological services by all the
most advanced nations of the world,
there was no selling of forecasts, ex-
cept incidentally in few almanacs,
but since the distribution of the fore,
casts of the weather bureau have
been greatly multiplied so that they
now reach to all parts of the country
in the daily newspapers and in other
ways, these so-callcd long-range fore
casters have recognized the demand
for a better knowledge of future
weather conditions, and they are at
tempting to supply the demand, but
as il almost always the case with
those who wish to make a, good liv-
ing out of those who are not well
enough informed to know the genu-
inc from the spurious, their goods
are not what they represent them to
be.
In order to sell their forecasts to
the public, it is necessary for them
to claim that they are based on
scientific data, for in this age nothing
n,noc ,,r1oce coscr<:E<.
Probably the most taking fallacy
il the one which holds that our
weather conditions are controlled by
planatory action or position. A very
slight knowledge Of astronomy
sht;uld be sufficient to show that this
theory is totally unreliable. 1t has
been calculated that when viewed
from the sun the space occupied in
the suns sky by the earth is only one
two-millionth of that great eXpanse,
consequently the earth cannot posi-
bly, receive more than one two-1niI-
ionth part Of the energy contin tally
being radiated by shat great l1lmi-
nary, she source of all the different
forms of energy with which we are
acquainted.
Fake the forecasts Of any OF these
long-range forecastcrs and sec ii you
can find out definitely what the writ
er means. Strip off the superabun-
dance of words and see if YOU can
find a. forecast for this place for Il
definite date. The notifications
claimed for these forecasts Of the
distant future are really ridiculous,
for storm OF any severity, ut any
distance and happening within few
days of the predicted time is consid-
cred as an abundant Notification.
On the other hand the forecasts
mite; they mean what they say, and
there is time and 4 quantity limit.
For instance, a forecast of fair to-
night" means an absence OF rain or
snow between p. III. and a. nj. to-
morrow; most OF the night may! be
entirely cloudless, but if a hundredth
of an inch of rain or melted snow
falls during the last minute or two
of the period the forecast is fixture.
A forecast for rain tomorrow means
that at least hundredth Of an inch
of rainwill fall between S a. IN. and
8 p. m. tomorrow; il this does not
fall within the period the forecast
is q failure, even though there be a
deluge a. few minutes before a. m.
and another one minute after p. m.
If the forecast reads warmer to-
night" it means that Il temperature
at least G. higher than it was this
morning is expected if the prediction
is one maze in summer, but if the
rise is only one of 50 the forecast is
a failure. A forecast for ''coldcr to-
morrow" in winter, means that the
temperature tomorrow at p. m. is
expected to be ut, least 1Oo colder
than it is tonight. These examples
will show you with what cxactness
the forecasts made by the weat her
bureau are proved. No allowances
are made; the time limit and the
quantity limit arc fixed and must be
adhered to for the place where the
A few instances will show the dam
age done within Il very few years: In
1895 a man named Falb predicted
terrible earthquakes and storms
which put the whole of Spanish
America into a. hopeless and helpless
state of panic. with total cessation
of work for weeks.
In 1880 the prediction of an awful
storm. in our South Atlantic States
frightened many intelligent people
and nine-tenths Of tho less intelligent
so that the lives and business o,
many were entirely altered
In 1901 the prediction of severe
hurricane OH the coast of New Jer.
sey in midsummer brought panic tc
thousands ut the summer resorts
which could not be allayed till a spe.
cial message from the chief of the
weather bureau stated the utter
falseness of the dangerous lumor.
1t will be readily understood that
In the instances named the health OF
proba bly,. thousands was seriously. al
fected, as it is known that nervous
constitutions do not recover rapidly
from such shocks.
:. All the sciences that we know to,
day have had to fight their way tc
their present standing against the
stitious and those who were anxious
to use "a dangerously imperfect
knowledge Of their subject to make
money out'of the over credulouS.
The methods OF the weather burea,
are open: TO every one: there are no
mysteries IF there is promise Oh
improvement along any line that has
not already been investigated all the
details of the plan are carefully cx.
amincd, and if found worthy of con.
sideration the results are published
SO that all can apply them.
; The weather bureau is striving Il
learn everything within the range OF
possibility regarding the mechanics
Of air movements, of the amount
rate and effect Of the suns radiation
to the earth, the effect of sun spots
magnetism, etc. etc. and in os'le,
that better opportunity for research