Highland recorder. (Monterey, Highland County, Va.) 1877-1972, 1905-06-30
LONG-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS.
The Weather Bureau Trying to Counferac'
MischIeyous Statements OF Asfrologers.

United States Weather Bureau has just
issued the following letter to counteract
as far as possible the miSthlevous ehec's
of the work of astrologers, who -preteho
to foretel the character of coming sea-
sons or the progress Of storms and oroi-
nary weather condition for month OF
a year in advance, and whose unfoundea
and unreliable forecasts are too often
given undue circulation:
"The ceaseless change in the midst OF
essential stability and permanence tna'
is apparent among the heavenly bodies
suggests relation between those move.
ments and the destinieS OF men and OF
nations as well as weather sequences.
So obvious is this analogy that IT is not
strange that in the childhood. of the race
it was exalted into an absolute casual
connection. There is no more interest
ing page of history than that when
traces the growth of astrology through
its various phases, the art OF divination,
the taking of the horoscopes and auspices,
and the gradual development OF the
sciences of astronomy and meteorology.
The first crude theories and conceptions
of the Chaldean priests and the Magi
were honest efforts to interpret natural
phenomena. In later and less simple
ages, however, when the priestly class
were still the repositories of wisdom,
they sought to perpetuate their influence
by concealng knowledge from the masses
or by enshrouding it in mystery, and
finally they welded it not to enlighten
but to enslave And so persistent is
mental slavery, and so deep seated IN the
heart of the race are these early teach
ings and beliefs that there is even yet a
predispositon to accept the supernatural
rather than to seek the natural causes
of things.
"The infinite desirability of foreknow-
ing the seasons for the benefit OF hus..
bandmen is at once the opportunity OF
charlatans and the justification OF ma
tional weather services. 1t avails little
to decry the methods of impostors or to
brand them as fakirs; the court OF final
resort must always be comparison OF
results, and such comparison everyone
can now make for himself. Weather
maps showing the actual conditions on
every day are now published by practl-
cally every civilized nation and are &C
cessible to all, and all that is needed to
cure the most implicit belief in almanac:
predictions is an honest comparison OF
these predictions for a single season with
the actual occurrences as shown by these
maps. Conspicuous instances OF tall
ure, such as those of the artificial rain
makers, who decade ago were given
the fullest opportunity to test and exploit
their theories, or the colorless results
of the extensive campaign OF lombard
ment as a protection against hail, which
has been conducted for several years IN
Southern Europe, do not convince the
credulous They do serve, however, to
illustrate the confusion OF tongues
among the prophets of these latter days,
who lombard the skies to precipitate
storms and lombard the clouds to dissi-
pate them. Government meteorologists
are not alone in the denunciatlon OF the
fallacies, absurdities and pernlcious et-
forts of so-called long-range forecasts.
Professor Young, probably the foremost
American astronomer, speaking OF lunar
influences, points out that the frequency
of the moons changes is so great that it
is always easy to find instances by which
to verify belief that changes OF the
moon control conditions on the earth. A
change of the moon necessarily occurs
about once q week. All changes of the
weather must, therefore, occur within
three and three-fourths days Of a change
of the moon, and one-half of all changes
ought to occur within 40 hours OF d
change in the moon, even IT there were
no causal connection whatever. Now, 1t
requires only very slight predlsposltlon
in favor of belief in the effectiveness OF
the moons changes to make one forget
few of the changes that occur too far
from the proper time. Coincidence
enough can easily be found to justify
pre-existent belief.
Enthusiastically there is general de-
sire for an extension of the range OF fore
casts to cover the near future, and, If
possible the coming season. If some
explorer in meteorology and astronomy
should discover some fundamental law,
hitherto unknown, whereby he could &C
curately calculate the time Of arrival,
the force and pathway Of storms for
weeks and months in advance, and could
warn the people of future floods or
droughts in defined localities, he would
at once take rank as the greatest scien-
fist of the world And then if he would
reveal the secret of his discovery for the
benefit of future generations, he would
be honored as the greatest of philan-
thropists as we'll as the wisest of man
kind But, alas, up to date this man has
not arrived.
"The problem of seasonal forecasts IS
receiving at the hands of the ablest and
most painstaking students of both CONT
nents a comprehensive consideration that
is certain to be fruitful and far-reaching
in its ultimate results.
$50 important and so pressing is the
work and so promising is the field that
the Chief of the Weather Bureau is
building and equipping large observa-
tory, wherein the best talent available
will soon be employed to study the IN
tricate and profound problems of the
atmosphere, whose solution promises I'M
provement over present methods and re-
suits in forecasting and may lead in
time to seasonal predictions on truly
scientific basis"