The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1905-06-28
THE SUPPLY or THE CAPITAL
METALS.

vi II, ~
Prof. n =. Sbaler OF Harvard University
contributes to the July number OF the
International Quarterly Il significant paper
on The Exhaustion Of the Worlds Metals.
or these metals two are cardinal In i'm
portance. iron Iend copper The rest may
he Of great utility, but they are not abso-
lutey necessary to civilization and do not
materially affect its course. The main
stays OF our existing civilization among
the metals are iron and copper"
Now, how about the supply? In Europe
the deposits OF mnable iron ores, long IN
service, are beginning to be exhausted
-Great Britain has practically consumed
its store, and now practically all the supply
for its furnaces is imported. The Medi-
.terranean supply, Prof. Shaler computes.
cannot last for many decades to come.
The ore beds Of Central Europe are mot
likely to meet the demands OF hundred
year, Extensive deposits VI rich ores
In Scandinavia and in Belgium and Franco
have hardly begun to be drawn on yet at
anything like the present rate OF increase
In the consumption Of metallic iron. Prof.
Shaler estimates that even with these the
European sources Of supply will not hold
out for century.
In this country the conditions for long
continuance Of iron production are more
promising, and the best placed field for
1t in North America or In the world, save
northern China, Is the central section Of
the Mississippi Valley mainly between
the great river and the Appalachian system
OF mountains and northward beyond the
Great Lakes to the head waters Of the streams
flowing into Hudson Bay: yet 1T Ia a ques-
ton" II even this store will supply the de-
Inands OF the future, and it Is in high
measure improbable that within the United
States any new fields Of notable value re-
main to be discovered" in addition to
those which have been known for thirty
years and more.
The only other known field in the other
continents than Europe and America is in
China, under conditions OF climate and Of
labor which promise a cheaper product
than has been obtained in any other dis
trict"; and 1t Is this condition which, to
Prof. Shalers mind gives to the Japanese
Russian war it's greatest importance to the
world. for on the control Of these resources
depends in large measure the economic
mastery OF the Pacific Ocean He COM
putes that the deposits other than those
OF China which can produce iron at the
present low labor cost will almost GER
inly be exhausted within one hundred
years"
The sources OF supply OF copper are much
rarer and more restricted. The total amount
OF the metal in the crust of the earth is prob
ably not thousandth part that Of iron,
and accordingly Prof. Shaler is of the opinion
that -the supply of copper will be reduced
to point where its service to the arts will
be seriously limited before there is like
reduction in the supply Of IRON
What will become Of civilization without
iron and copper? There may succeed an
aluminium age which will carry us al
most as far beyond that Of iron az we adj
yanced when that metal replaced bronze in
the mechanic arts" Within fifty years the
market price OF aluminium has fallen till
1t Is now only about one-tenth Of what it
was yet Prof. Shaler says that -he would
be a confident man who, on this basis OF
computation, looked forward to time
when aluminium could be economically
produced for less than 5000 a tom and he
reaches the conclusion that with any meth
DDS now conceivable we have to reckon that
while aluminium is likely In time to take
the dominant place now held by iron. it
will do 40 at a cost in terms OF labor far
higher than what men now pay for their
capital metal"
As to gold, the gain in the worlds store
Of it is going forward SO rapidly that Prof.
Shaler thinks that within few decades"
we shall .contrive some other means OF
measuring values than by the ancient de-
vice OF balancing them against substance
OF which the supply is excessive" Silver
he calls now a forlorn element, a very
pauper among metals; .valueless in the
arts; -the station it retains due to sent-
mental considerations which are likely to
soon pass away; "in century. save for
use as fractional currency, it is likely to be
quite neglected