The news & observer., 1905-12-16
COTTON.

New York. Dec. 15.-Herewith l
submit nv forecast of the forthcom-
ing ginners' return Of the Census De-
partment derived from reports from
representative gins.
1t shows. it win be noticed, total
of 9,21l,000 bales ginned up to the
18th OF December. which is estimated
to be 854 per cent. of the entire
crop, as against S,54S,537 ginned in
1905 (Which was S6.S per cent. OF the
entire CROP, and S,92S,11O in 1902
(Which was "a per cent. of the entire
CROP. The smallest 2quantity ever
ginned previously after the 18th of
December was 100000 bales. The
average daily ginning for the ten
working days from December 1st to
December 18th is $4,000 bales, as
against 10000 bale per day for the
fifteen working days from the 18th OF
November to the 1st of December.
This rate of decrease certainly does
not indicate exhaustion. and in sew
eral points in Northeast Texas my re-
ports indicate that the ginning has
been from $50 per cent. TO 200 per
cent. of the quantity ginned during
the same period a year ago.
The total indicated production on
the basis of my figures is 10,S5S,O0O
bales The indicated crop by States
as compared with the estimate of the
A grcultural Department agrees very
closely except in the States of North
and South Carolina, Georgia, and Ok
lahoma. where the quantity already
ginned is substantially in excess of the
4 gricultural Departments estimate of
the total crop and in Texas which
appears to be under-eStimated by the
Agricultural Department by about
100000 bales.
Ny figures point to total yield in
erkaueaG of about $4,000 bales.
whereas Mr.. Julius Lesser stated only
ae late as yesterday that the crop
total indicated crop is only $4,000
baler. whereas the Agricultural De-
partment itself estimates the yield a.
226 900 and no less an authority than
Naeers G.. 2. Farnsworth and Com
pany. of Memphis, writes me under
o. a. of the 1st of December, that it is
his opinion the crop in Tennessee vii
he larger this year than last. Last
wear the yield in Tennessee was 325,-
0O0 bales. A careful study Of these
figures cOnvinceS me that the total
production this year will probably
closely approximate 100000 bales.
The effort that is being made in New
Orlc rs to Jockey the market and Gre
ate the impression that a total OF
100000 bales ginned up to the 18th
If December would be ibullish is alb
Nd when it is considered that any
snrh figure would indicate a per diem
verage of $500 bales for the 0 days
,nling December 13. as against a per
dicm average of 10, 900 bales actually
q'nned during the Is working days,
ending December 1st. Doubtless the
National Ginners' Association and 9TH
ors will vigorously challenge my es-
innate of the quantity unginned on the
18th of December, which is an aver
age of 1916 per cent. Anticipating
such criticism l would say that my in
quirics lead me to believe that a snort
crop is as a rule less rapidly glnned
than a largo one. The reason LOT thls
has been explained to me by one of
the best informed planters in the
Mississippi Valley. who writes me as
follows: Referring to the alleged
statement of Mr.. r. A. Taylor presi-
dent of the National Ginners Asso-
citation wired from Washington yes
terday that there will not be 100000
bales left to be ginncd after December
18th. would call your attention to the
custom of many planters in the Mis-
sissippi Valley and elsewhere during
short crop year to delay their gin
ming until the crop is harvested. The
reason for this is owing to heavy
advances having been made to the ne
groes throughout the cultivating sea-
son. If the crop should be ginned as
the season progresses the labor would
soon find out that there would De
nothing coming to them and jump the
crop. therefore the plarter prefers TO
make only one or two ginnings.
December 14th, 1905.-One of the
largest planters in North Carolina un-
der date of the 18th of December,
writes me as follows: "As you know
cotton was low the first of last May
and hence ! reduced the acreage on
my home farm 40 per cent. While !
am not half through ginning. il has
all been weighed as brought in from
the fields. and the total amount pro-
duced is AZ per cent less than last
year when the acreage as stated above
is 40 per cent less. The chief reduc-
ton in my country was the acreage.
One of the best Informed men III
Memphis tells me under date OF the
14th of December, as follows:
hear of a good deal cotton yet to pick
in north and northwest Texas. and
some in the territories. You know
picking is not entirely over anywhere
vet, never was this early"