Carolina watchman. [volume] (Salisbury, N.C.) 1871-1937, 1905-08-02

LIE Inllulle u~eSlfaUllltI OF
I xH~ Y ~foreknowing the seasons
g 9 for the benefit of husband
4 y men is at once the oppor-
|CS tunity of charlatans and
the justification of national weather
services. It avails little to decry the
methods Of impcstors or to brand them
as fakirs; the court of final resort must
always be a comparison Of results, and
such comparison every one can now
make for himself. Weather maps
showing the actual conditions on every
day are now published by practically
every civilized nation, and are accessi-
bic to all, and al that is needed to cure
the most implicit belief in almanac
predictions is an honest comparison OF
these predictions for Il single season
with TIE actual occurrences as shown
by these maps. Conspicuous instances
OF failure, such as those of the artif-
cial rain makers, who a decade ago
We're given the fullest opportunity to
test and exploit their theories, or the
colorless results Of the extensive cam
paign of bo~mbardment as a protection
against hail, which has been conducted
for several years in Southern Europe,
do not convince the credulous. They
do serve, however, to illustrate the
confusion of tongues" among the pro-
phets OF these latter days, who bonn
bard the skies to precipitate storms
and lombard the clouds to dissipate
them. Government meteorologists are
not alone in the denunciation of the
fallacies, absurdities and pernicious eff
forts of so-called ~long-range forecasts.
Professor Young, probably the fore
most American astronomer. speaking
of lunar influences, points out that the
frequency of the moons. changes is so
great that it is always easy to find in
stances by which to verify a belief that
changes of the moon control conditions
on the earth. A change of the moon
necessarily occurs about once a week.
All changes of the weather must, there
fore, occur within three and three
fourths days of a change of the moon,
and one-half of all changes ought to oc-
cur within forty-six hours of a change
in the moon, even if there We're no cas-
ual connection whatever. Now, it re-
qulres only a very slight predisposition
in favor Of a belief in the effectiveness
of the moons changes to make one for
get few OF the changes that occur too
far from the proper time. Coincidence
enough can easily be found to justify
pre-eXiStent belief.
Unquestionably there is a general de-
sire for an extension of the range of
forecasts to cover the neal future, and,
il possible, the coming season. If some
explorer in meteorology and astronomy
should discover some fundamental law,
hitherto unknown, whereby he could
accurately calculate the time of arri-
val, the force and pathway Of storms
for weeks and months in advance, and
could warn the people Of future floods
or 'droughts in defined localities, he
would at once take rank as the great
est scientist of the world. And then if
he would reveal the secret of his dis
covery for the benefit of future gener-
ations, he would be honored as the
greatest of philanthropists as we'll is
the wisest of mankind. But, alas, up
to date this man has not arrived.
Some of the ablest scientists of this
country and Europe have devoted
much time and labor to the study of
this problem. They have consulted
weather records of all countries, tax
ing notes of the dates of heavy storms
and maIipr oonparicop with tho noci-
ton Of the moon and planets, to deter
mine if there is any discoveraple con-
nection between the movement of
those minor bodies and the sweep of
storm eddies in the earth's atmosphere.
The consensus Of opinion has been that
there is no foundation Of fact or phi
losophy for that system of long-range
forecasts. So thus far there has been
entire failure to establish a scien-
tifc and practical basis for any kind
of trustworthy predictions as to the oc-
currence of storms, floods OF droughts
ip specified localities and at certain
dates in future months or seasons.
Though such foreknowledge is very
desirable, yet at the present stage OF
human progress it is beyond the posi-
bility of realization. In this field Of
scientific research the wisest students
have been most deeply sensible of the
limitations of human knowledge, but
%charlatans and pretenders claim to hold
a key to mysteries in earth and the
heavens that are hidden to the balance
Of mankind. Quackery in meteorology,
IS we'll as in medicine, is Indicated by
the extravagant p%retentions of its prac-
titioners.
Modern astrologers, following closely
the lines of their ancient prototypes,
give the sun a minor or passive role,
while the 400 and planets form IN
all-star aggregation in the eyer-shift-
ing scenes of the earth's drama. To
each planet is assigned ONE speciality
! act on the stage, each producing a diff
ferent type of weather, and when the
three act in conjunction the complex
results are startling.
Really, it is difficult to treat such lu-
dicrous matter with becoming dignity
op1 cnrin11c,nce contain o11nnnan'S