The Montgomery advertiser., 1905-11-27
COTTON CRoP ESTIMATES.
Past statements of Neill Were Genei
 ally Too High.

p.st statements of Nein Were Gener-
 ally Too High.
 New Orleans States. .,
 During the next ten days there will he A flood of cotton yield estimates The first, or among the first. of these to be issued was that of Henry Neiii of this city. He said this years crop would be one of 11,500.o00 bales. and such q dyed -the-wool bear organ as The New York Evening Post took him to task for his bearish circular An attempt was made to answer the critl- cisms that The Post made of Mir. NeilPs circular, especially that portion or the criticism which said "very little stock is taken by conservative and close stu- dents in this estimate, which IS gener- ally considered to be excessive. There was, indeed, no merit whatsoever in the answer to The Posts criticism, and The Post came back with these fur- ther criticisms of Mfr. NeilIs past es- inmates. which would go to hold up It's first contentious that he was constitu- tionally an overestimator and friend o fthe European spinners:
 "This is all question of easily as certained facts. It is true that MT. Neilrs estimate of October 25, last year, i2, ,00e, 900 bales, was the highest of all estimates up to that time, though l.
 800 900 bales below actual results. TO take the three preceding years. how ever: The Neilf estimate in 1903 was 11,i00,000 to 11,30o000 bales. the high
 est except Buston's; actual crop, 1o,oOo.-
 900 bales. In 1902 the Neill estimate
 in November 1i,500,060 to 100000
 bales, was the highest of all; actual crop. I8,600,000 bales. In 1901 MT. Neili foreshadowed 11,250,000 bales; ae- tual crop, 10,700,ooO. The high stand ing of the house is absolute guarantee against deliberate misstatement; but the above-cited record does not of it, self encourage confidence in this week Neill estimate of 11,500,000 bales. In treating on the subject of crop es- inmates. Pearsalrs bulletin. recently is- sued. says:
 sff this crop is 11.o0o.oOO bales (ac- cording to Mir. Pricel there will come into sight for the remainder of this season--forty weeks--6,563,OO0 bales. Estimating the consumption at 24o,000 bales a week, the amount consumed for the remainder of the season will be | 9,600,000 bales.
 'The present visible supply of Amer ican cotton is 3,497,000 bales. To come into sight, as above, 6,563,000 bales, showing total supply of 10,060,00O bales from which deduct the consump- ton as above-9, 100000 bales-leaving the visible American on hand Septem- l. visible supply of 1,651.000 bales on September |, 1905. In 1902 the visible supply of American was reduced to 443,000 bales and cotton advanced to 16 cents in New Orleans. In 1903 the supply ran down to 455,000 bales and the price went to IS cents. From these facts 1t is very evident that MT. Price is assuming a grave responsibility in assuring the spinners of the world that the supply of American cotton Is abun-
 dant, while the yield this season might prove less than 10,00O,000 bales, which | would mean extreme scarcity and prob ably 20 cents for cotton with the pres
 ent unprecentedly good trade in cotton goods throughout the world. remem- | Der distinctly the season of 1899 when Mir. Neill was harshly criticised for advising the spinners that the supply was abundant when the crop was short and cotton advanced over cents a pound. MT. Price and Mir. Neill have not personally examined the crop while | MT. Buston and other leading cotton
 men have recently visited the South. be- ing acknowledged bears before going,
 and returning with small crop views
 Whose testimony should have the great est weight?"