The Mathews journal. (Mathews C.H. [Court House]) 1903-1937, 1905-06-29
LONd-RANdF ETl1iEs FORECASTS.
The Weather Burea! Ii. - co.0,e,.c.
Al.ehIsvous Stat m.n,s ,,s'@s at A.,,olossr. IS

He'll the character OF coming sea
r,rvWor the progress Of storms and -
a vc,rNweather condition for mont
and urA Ain advance, and whose "'1loUr ~" 81
give, ,,rkSeliahlsa forecasts are 100 Vi
The ces - tho mid
essential stan -
IS apparent am - -
suggests a relati0fz -
ments and the destinieS 81
nations as well as weathcr&
30 obvious is this analogy that riS ~
strange that in the childhood Of the race
1t was exalted into an absolute casual
connection. There is no more interest
ing page of history than that which
traces the growth of astrology through
ITS various phases, the art Of diviuation
the taking OF the horoscopes and auspices
and the gradual development of the
sciences of astronomy and meteorologv.
The first crude theories and conceptions
OF the Chaldcan priests and the Mag
were honest efforts to interpret natural
phenomena. In later and less simple
ages, however, when the priestlv class
were still the repositories of wisdom
they sought to perpetuate their influence
by concealing knowledge from the masses
or by enShrouding it in mystery. and
finally they welded ii not to enlighten
but 10 enslave. And so persistent is
mental slavery, and so deep seated in the
heart OF the race are these early teach
ingS and beliefs that there is even yet a
predispoSition TO accept the supernatural
rather than to seek the natural causes
OF things.
The infinite deSirability OF fcreknow-
ing the seasons for the benefit of hus-
bandmen is at once the opportunity OF
charlatans and the justification Of ma
uonal weather services. 1t avails little
to decry the methods OF impoStors or TO
brand them as fakirS; the court OF final
resort must always be a comparison OF
results. and such comparison everyone
can now make for himself. Weather
maps showing the actual conditions on
every day are now published bv practi-
cally every civilized nation and are ac-
ceSslble TO all, and all that is needed TO
cure the most implicit belief in almanac
predictions is an honest comparison OF
these predictions for a single season with
the actual occurrences as shown by these
maps. Conspicuous instances OF fail
urc, such as those of the artificial rain
makers, who decade ago were given
the fullest opportunity TO test and exploit
their theories. or the colorless results
OF the extensive campaign of lombard
mcnt as protection against hail. which
mas been conducted for several years in
southern Europe, do not convince the
crcdulouS. They do serve. however. To
illustrate the confusion of tongues"
among the prophets of these latter davs.
who lombard the skies to precipitatc
storms and lombard the clouds to dissi-
Il
are not alone in the dcnunciation Of the
tallacicS. abSurdiiicS and pcrnicious cf-
forts OF So-CaIlcd long range forecasts.
Professor Young, probably the foremost
American astronomer. speaking Of lunar
influences, points ont that the frequency
OF the moons changes is so great that it
Is always easy to find instances by Which
TO verify 4 belief that changes of the
moon control conditions on the earth. 4
change OF the moon necessarily occurs
about once a week. All changes Of the
weather must, therefore, occur within
three and three-fOurthS DAYS of a change
OF the moon, and one-half of all changes
ought TO occur within 40 hours OF
change III the moon. even if there were
no cauSal connection whatever. Now. il
requires only very slight prediSpoSition
IN favor OF belief in the effectiveness OF
the moons changes TO make one forget
lew of the changes that occur too far
from the proper time. Coincidence
enough can easily be found 10 Justify
pre-eNiStent belief
PROFESSIONALLY there is a general de-
sire for an extension of the range of fore
casts to cover the near future and. if
possible, the coming season. If some
explorer in meteorology and astronomy
should discover some fundamental law
hitherto unknown, whereby he could ac-
curately calculate the time of arrival.
the force and pathway OF storms for
weeks and months III advance, and could
warn the people of future floods or
drouPhtS in defined localities. he would
at once take rank as the greatest Scien-
tiSt of the world. And then if he would
reveal the secret of his discovery for ths
benefit OF future generations he would
be hOnOred as the greatest of philan-
thropistS as well as the wiSeSt OF man
kind. But, alas, up to date this man has
not arrived
The problem OF seasonal forecasts i;
receiving at the hands of the ablest and
most painStaking students of both CONT
nents comprehensive consideration that
IS certain TO be fruitful and far-reachine
in its ultimate results.
so important and so pressing is the
work and so promising is the field thai
the Chief of the Weather Bureau !.
building and equipping large observa.
tory. wherein the best talent available
will soon be employed to study the in.
tricate and profound problems of the
atmosphere, whose solution promises inn
provement over present methods and re-
suits i'll forecaSting and may lead in
time to seasonal predictions on a truly
scientific basis
twenty-five Dead; Ten Dying.