Elk City mining news. (Elk City, Idaho) 1903-1913, 1905-12-30
GUESSING AT THE WEATHER.
Government Signal Service Can Not,
of Course, BE Infallibie.

Government Signal Service Can Not,
of Course, BE InfaIIibie.
So important is a foreknowledge Of
coming weather to the business inter-
ests of the country that some years ago
our government established, and yet
maintains at enormous expense, a
weather bureau for the express pur-
pose of furnishing reliable daily pre-
dictions and probabilities. With that
class of our people to whom scientific
investigation appeals the weather bu-
reau has become highly popular, and
its predictions are relied upon by them
with a good deal of confidence. An
other large class whose members each
has system of weather forecasting
of his own, look upon the weather
maps and predictions of the weather
bureau as mere guesses and promptly
forget the ninety that are verified and
remember the ten that fail.
AS a matter of fact, from the very
nature of things meteorological, the
predictions of the weather bureau can
not be always correct. The system is
based upon what knowledge is possess
ed of meteorological laws, which is not
full and complete, and the atmospheric
conditions as ascertained by various
instruments. If all the weather changes
depended upon the lower atmospheric
conditions the instruments used by
the weather observer would promptly
and correctly indicate them and make
verification of every prediction prob
able, but it must be remembered that
the sudden and violent changes are
carried in stock and in the upper strata
of the atmosphere, too far away to
have any influence upon the barometer,
thermometer, thermometer and other
weather instruments. These conditions
of the upper air may swoop down sud
denly and upset the conditions of the
most careful weather expert. The gov
eminent Is fully aware of this limita
ton to its representations, and hence
they are warranted good for only "a
hours.
The oldest and most universal meth
cd of forecasting weather conditions
is by observation of the phases OF the
moon. 1t is the simplest, the easiest
learned, and the easiest to remember,
and requires no instruments and in
wolves no intricate calculations. 1t
consists simply in observing the posi-
tion of the new moon. If 1t lies level
on its back, 1t is a dry moon because
1t Is in a position to hold water; but
If 1t hangs by one corner it Is a wet
moon, because the water can easily
spill out. This is all there Is to 1t
except that if the new moon Is far
south it will also be warm moon, but
If far north it will be cold moon.
There is class of moon weather
prognosticators that hold to the theory
that when the new moon lies level on
its back it will be a wet moon, be-
cause it is in position to hold water,
and If it hangs by one corner it will
be dry moon, because all the water
has already run out.
To an ordinary mind these two
moon theories contradict each other,
but In reply to this it can be said that
predictions of the kind of weather that
is to come, based upon either of these
contradictory theories, are
verified about as often on the one the
DRY as upon the other, and so it mat
tiers not which theory the forecaster
adopts he will hit it right half the time.
Southern Lumberman