Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1905-01-02
STIMATE s ON COTTON
MR.. HYDE SHOWS ACCURACY OF
GOVERNMENT FIGURES.
Immense Quantities of the Staple Are
Held Over From One Year to the
Next Sometimes.

Further correspondence regarding govern
mental statistics of cotton has been given
out for publication. Representative Burle-
son of Texas extended his inquiries to the
Agricultural Department, and in a letter
received by him from John Hyde. chief of
the bureau of statistics, figures are given
showing the slight percentage of difference
between the governments estimates and
the so-called commercial crops The gin
ners' reports of the census bureau are re-
ferred to as of the utmost value while the
continuance of their publications. regard
ed as absolutely essential to a perfect cot
ton reporting system Mr.. Hyde's letter is
as follows:
statistician Hyde's Letter.
In compliance with your recent request,
l have the honor to send you the following
table, showing for each of the last five
years this departments preliminary esti-
mate OF the cotton crop of the United
States. as published in December of each
year, exclusive of linters and sample cot
ton and the total amount Of cotton, in
elusive of lnters and sample Cotton mar
keted in the corresponding years:
Estimate Of actual c,,
growth publish Oommercial move
elusive of linters iih.ers ana sam
Va ana sample cotton. PIC ''''on'
Year Bales. BALES
1 1S s,9Oo,O00 9,142,sss
1000. TO- 100000 10 4O1 AKA
1 1911 1914, 900 10. 662, 995
1903. $780,, 039 1O.lII417
me estimates of the amount actually
grown are not strictly comparable as they
stand with the so-called commercial crops,
"hlch represent the amounts marketed, in
asmuch as each commercial crop includes
not only from 215 to per cent of linters
ana sample cotton. known commercially as
me city CROP, but also cotton brought
forward from preceding years and so much
OF the crop of the succeeding year as may
have been marketed prior to September
l; While, on the other hand, a deduction
mas 10 De made for cotton of that years
growth marketed during the preceding COM
merclal year or carried forward to the
year following.
Accuracy of Estimates.
Independent of these adjustments the de-
partments preliminary estimate of the crop
of 1899, made, it should be rendered, be-
fore the entire crop was gathered, differed
only 90 per cent from the amount mar
keted that year; that of the year 1900, 30
per cent; that of 1902, 90 per cent; and
that of 1908. 1.5 per cent Only once in
the last five years, namely in 1901. was
"'S "iNc uiSSi cpdiICy DelWeen the
departments preliminary estimate of the
amount grown and the commercial crop
That year the difference was so CREATE
per cent-that special investigation was
made by field agents with a view to ascer-
tanning Its cause, and it was found that
while the departments estimate of the
amount grown was $4,000 bales less than
the commercial crop proved to be- the esti-
mate differed only 292, 600 bales or less
than per cent, from the actual crop. The
was that in addition to 172, 226 bales of
linters and 67,343 bales of sample cotton re-
baled, the commercial crop of that year
included 52s,9OO bales grown in preceding
years and brought out by the high prices
which then prevailed, and 1913, 100 bales of
the crop of the following year marketed
prior to September 1, 1902; there being, on
the the, other hand: 1850 bales of the crop of
l9O1-N marketed prior to September /,
1901, and 154,5 92 bales Of the same CROP
carried forward to the year 19O2-es, leav-
Ing an actual growth in the year 1901 of
9s66,47s. These adjustments are shown for
the several states in the table at the head
or page 645 of the statistical appendix to
the departments yearbook, copy of which
Is sent herewith.
Cotton Held Over.
The amount of cotton held over by plant
ers from one year to another varies con-
slderably, as you know, as does also-al-
though this is a less important factor-the
amount of cotton marketed before Septem-
Der l and consequently included in the
commercial crop of the preceding year.
But while for this reason there may be a
considerable difference between the amount
grown and the amount marketed in any
single year, the totals for series of five or
more years ought not to be greatly at
variance, and it is in a comparison on a
hVe-year basis that the accuracy of the de-
partments figures is most strikingly re-
vealed. The total amount of cotton mar
keted in the United States in the five wears
ending August 81, 1904, was 51.O44125 bales.
while the sum of the preliminary estimates
of this department. issued annually in De-
cember, plus 2k per cent for linters and
sample cotton admittedly a conservative
estimate), was 50,219 365 bales, difference
of only 764,76O bales for the five years. or
lo2,9o2 bales per annum. When it is re-
membered that in not a single one of these
five years did the department overestimate
the crop. this close CORES pondence (within
10 per cent? becomes all the more sisnifi-
cant
With regard to the ginners' reports pub
Hshed at freque"t intervals by the bureau
or the census, l not only regard them as
or the utmost value in themselves, but /
consider the continuance of their publica-
ton by the census bureau as absolutely es-
sential to that perfect cotton-reporting sys-
tenn which the magnitude of the cotton in
terests of the country demands and which
| fully believe will in the very near future
be SO strongly intrenched in public con-
ndence that nothing can discredit 1t.
Cell,