The Elbert County tribune. [volume] (Elbert, Elbert County, Colo.) 18??-1920, 1905-06-29
WEATHER FORECASTS
LONG RANGE PROPHECIES IDLE
Saucer Mixtures of Astronomy and As
troIogy-Sense and Nonsense
Science and Superstition.

tFclO9y-ScHSc ana nonsense
Science and Superstition.
The ceaseless change in the midst of
essential stability and permanence that
is apparent among the heavenly bodies
suggests relation between those
movements and the destinies of men
and of nations as we'll as weather se-
quences. So obvious is this analogy
that 1t is not strange that in the child
hood OF the race it was exalted into
an absolute causal connection. There is
no more interesting page of history
than that which traces the growth of
astrology through its various phases.
the art OF divination, the taking of the
horoscopes and auspices, and the
gradual development of the sciences of
astronomy and meteorology
The first crude theories and concep-
tons Of the Chaldean priests and the
Magi were honest efforts to interpret
natural phenomena In later and less
simple ages, however, when the
priestly class were still the reposi-
tories of wisdom, they sought to per-
petuate their influence by concealing
knowledge from the masses or by en-
shrouding 1t in mystery, and finally
they welded 1t not to enlighten but to
enslaye. And SO persistent is mental
slavery, and SO deep seated in the
heart of the race are those early teach
ings and beliefs that there is even yet
: a predisposition to accept the super
natural rather than to seek the natural
causes of things.
Astrology once permeated all relig-
ion, all science, and even politics; and
the baneful influence of unfounded, I'M
reasonable, or portentous predictions
is not modern affliction. Montague,
the French philosopher and essayist OF
the sixteenth century, remarks that "a
large sum of money was lost on
Change at Rome by this prognostica-
ton of our ruin" referring to the pre-
diction by Italian astrologers of the
downfall of the French nation. Dean
Swift, the powerful satirist, wrote,
Predictions for the year 1908, by Isaac
Bickerstaff, ESQ.," to emphasize the
absurdities and weaken the influence
of long-range forecasters.
The infinite desirability of foreknow-
ing the seasons for the benefit of hus-
bandmen is at once the opportunity of
Charlatans and the justification of ma
tional weather services. 1t avails little
to decry the method of impostors or
to brand them as faSirs; the court of
final resort must always be compari-
son of results, and such comparison
everyone can now make for himself.
Weather maps showing the actual con-
dltions on every day are now published
by practically every civilized nation,
and are accessible to all, and all that
is needed to cure the most implicit be-
lief in almanac predictions is an hon
est comparison of these predictions for
single season with the actual occur
rences as shown by these maps.
Conspicuous instances of failure,
such as those of the artificial rain-mak-
ers, who a decade ago were given the
fullest opportunity to test and exploit
their theories, or the colorless results
of the extensive campaign of lombard
ment as protection against hail,
which has been conducted for several
years in southern Europe, do not con-
vince the credulous. They do serve
however, to illustrate the confusion of
tongues" among the prophets of these
latter days, who lombard the skies to
precipitate storms and lombard the
clouds to dissipate them. Government
meteorologists are not alone in the de-
nunciation of the fallacies, absurdities,
and pernicious efforts of so-called long
range forecasts. Professor Young,
probably the foremost American as
tronomer, speaking of lunar influences,
points out that the frequency of the
moons changes Is SO great that 1t is
always easy to find instances by which
to verify belief that changes of the
moon control conditions on the earth.
A change of the moon necessarily &C.
ours about once week. All changes
of the weather must. therefore, occur
within three and three-fourths days of
a change in the moon, and one-half Of
all changes ought to occur within for
ty-six hours of a change in the moon,
even IL there were no causal connec-
ton whatever. Now, it requires only
very slight predisposition in favor of
belief in the effectiveness of the moons
changes to make one forget a few of
the changes that occur too far from the
proper time. Coincidence enough can
easily be found to justify pre-existent
belief.
Unquestionably there is general de-
sire for an extension Of the range of
forecasts to cover the near future, and,
If possible, the coming season. II some
explorer in meterology and astronomy
should discover some fundamental law,
hitherto unknown, whereby he could
accurately calculate the time of arrival,
the force and pathway of storms for
weeks and months in advance, and
could warn the people of future floods
or droughts in defined localities, he
would at once take rank as the great
est scientist of the world. And then,
If he would reveal the secret of his dis
covery for the benefit of future gener-
atoms, he would be honored as the
greatest Of philanthropists as well as
the wisest of mankind. But, alas, up
to date this man has not arrived.
Some of the ahlest scientists of this
country and Europe have devoted