Weekly Arizona journal-miner. [volume] (Prescott, Ariz.) 1903-1908, 1905-03-08
Of Moe Than Ordina Y
Interest.
1t Deals With the Long Range
Weather FOrecasters Who Con-
suit the Moon and Stars For
Their Predictions.

and deals with Long Range Weather
Forecasts.
The weather bureau is the victim
of more or less criticism, mixed with
sarcasm, because its forecasts do not
materialize exactly as given to the day
and hour. While mistakes are made
by the bureau more thorough investi-
cation and observation is improving
it year by year, and figuring in all its
mistakes or miscalculations is without
doubt the best and most reliable fore
caster of weather in existence today.
Willis L. Moore, chief of the wealth
to the department of agriculture, the
paper which forms this bulltein has a
brief digest of it coupled with an ex-
preston of opinion from him of the
long range forecasters.
The letter and bulletin both will be
found interesting reading to students
of the weather question. Mr.. Moore
in his letter of transmlttal says:
The first chapter by Professor Gar
riott, presents a verification of the
work of the most prominent of the So
called long range weather forecasters
in the United States that shows con
clusively the fallacy of their predic-
tions. The second chapter, by Profess
sor Woodward, shows the impossible
ty of basing weather predictions on
planetary influences. This chapter
was published by Professor Woodward
in 1875 in Wares Valley Monthly, and
Mr.. Tice, whose theory of planetary
equinoxes is discussed and refuted,
was the predecessor of long range
weather forecaster who is now operat-
ing in st. Louis. Mo.
The remainder of the paper is de-
voted largely to the discussion of the
subject by many of the leading me-
teorologists of the world. 1t reviews
the literature of long range weather
forecasts, and quotes the opinions of
leading scientists regarding the prac-
ticability of long range work. 1t re
fers to theories regarding weather
periodlcities depending upon lunar
and planetary influences; summarizes
results obtained by comparison of
maximum and minimum sun spot per-
iods with the phenomena of the
earth's atmosphere; states that the
next advance in meteorological science
must result from extensive research
in solar physics and terrestrial mag
netism and comparison of solar and
terrestrial phenomena; assumes that
advances in the period and accuracy
of the official weather forecasts depend
largely upon study of atmospheric
pressure over great areas, and deter
mination of the influences that occa-
sion normal and abnormal distribu-
ton of the greater atmospheric areas
The success of the United States
Weather Bureau in making conserva-
tive forecasts of the weather two or
three days in advance has created the
hope in the minds of the people that
it may be possible TO foresee the char
acter of the weather for the coming
month or season. All scientific men
know that at present it is impossible |
to crafty this wish, and the govern
ment experts so inform all those who !
make inquiry. But the mistaken in
vestigator of little knowledge, the |
pseudo scientist and the astrologer,
see their opportunity and at once step
into the breach and sell spurious long
range forecasts to the public rendered |
credulous by the success of the gov |
ernmeDt scientists. The abuse of the |
public confidence has become so great |
that 1 have thought it justifiable 10
present t. the reader indisputable evil
dence of the injurious character of
monthly or seasonal forecasts.
1t is the opinion of the leading me-
teOrologists of the world that public
interests are injured by the publica-
ton of so called long range weather
forecasts, especially by such predic- /
tions as relate to severe storms, floods, |
droughts and other atmospheric dis
turbances of a dangerous or damaging
character. The publication of month
ly forecasts has reached such proper
items that it is deemed advisable to
inform the public as to their harmful
character. Some monthly forecasters
may be honest, and may, IN their ig-
attach undue Importance to
storms that accidentally coincide in
time of occurrence with certain rela.
tive positions of the moon, or with
periods of increase or decrease in sun
spots, or apparent variations in the
solar intensity. To men of this class
the occurrence of a storm within the
broad area of the United States on or