The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1905-01-03
TIE FINANcLAL sLTrATLoN.

matter, that twelve months ago the view
| taken in this column as 10 the general
outlook for business and financial affairs
in the new var was much muc optimistic
than that which commonly prevailed. It
was time Of great depression IN that wide
territory known a. Wall Street. The stock
! market was bruised and sorc from one
~ the most severe dru1hing- it had
. ever received and the weight of opinion
favored the probability that the buli.ing
, and beating was even yet uucomp.eted.
Stil more heavily did general judgment
} incline to the belief that, following the great
financial liquidation that had occurred, an
equally great commercial liquidation must
needs follow; that Is, that an era of com
nercial and industrial depression was at
hand whether or not stock market prices
might have seen their lowest point Bust
ness trouble of this sort had usually
followed under similar circumstances in
the past. and the chances werc, II was
argued that they would be the dominant
characteristic of the year to come Other
clouds especially dark which lowered over
the situation We're a threatened war be-
tween Russiai and Japan. menacinR labor
/ difficulties. knowledge that the winter
wheat crop had entered the season In poor
condition. possible results OF a general
/ disruptive nature following the decision
/ Of the supreme Court Of the United States
/ In the Northern Securities case and the
/ additionally evil influence Of the coming
I Presidential election. That it would be. at
any rate a dull and in all probability "A had
/ wear IN tho business and financial world
seemed much more likely than unlikely
Yet there were those who maintained
! that all the power for harm that thcs,
matters might exercise upon security prices
had already been duly measured in the
fall OF values that had taken place This
! fall. it was pointed out. had amounted
70 more than half the entire previous rise
in prices since the Bryan panic times Of
I 1895 while the wealth OF the country had
| IN the same period tremendously enlarged.
| IL was asserted by these observers that the
public had deserted the stock market
I in very large degree as far back as the
/ spring Of 1901. and that the crash in
| prices Of 1909 had assailcd the pocketbooks
/ Of few speculative plungers more than
those of any other class Of people These
/ critics admitted that a business depression
/ Of some Importance was 10 be expected:
but they held that it would chiefly affect
the Eastern part Of the country aud would
he checked at the Allegheny Mountains
by the immense. substantial and undi-
minished prosperity of the agricultural
section They averred that the Russo
Japanese war. If there such war,
would bring about large purchases here
Of an sorts Of supplies and war materials
and would be of distinct benefit TO the freight
; business OF our Western transcontinental
railway lines. They argued that the low
price Of the Northern Securities shares
more than discounted any adversely thu
could beiall as the result Of a possible dis
tribution OF the assets Of the company
among its stockholders. while 90 far "a the
Presidential election was concerned. they
declared that it would prove impossible 20
revive the discussion Of the one issue that
alone could trouble our countrys business
peace. that Of the silver question. and that
the electoral contest, therefore, would be
n comparatively tame affair.
II Is pleasant to be able 20 record that
events justified these hopeful forecasts.
The year 1904 proved to be. as whole
one Of marked recovery in every business
and financial way. 1t was a period divided
between a mora or less unfavorable first
half and an exceedingly favorable and
buoyant last half; this being only another
way Of saying, perhaps, that the improve
ment in conditions was slow in coming, but
that once under way II came with nlsh.
Stock market prices backed and filed
in January and February. rejecting the
various influences Of stuPendous and
absolutely wild speculation in cotton. Of
the great Baltimore and Rochester fires,
the actual outbreak Of war between Russia
and Japan, and the hardest winter known
in this country for thirty years. Never
theless, the low level Of prices reached
in the previous fall was not again touched.
and the market tended 10 torpor rather
than weakness. In March there we're days
Of the smallest trading on the Stock EI-
change seen for IN" greater part Of a dec
ade, and these, a. l. now evident We're the
natural results Of market that had been
sold out one in which liquidation had
done its work \ little later came the long
dreaded decision in the Northern Securities
case dissolying the Northern Securities
Company and it was found that the event
brought no shock at all or, in reality. that
It's shock had long before been fully felt.
The stock market rose violently. led hv tho
stocks Immediately concerned in the law