The Birmingham age-herald., 1905-07-09
FORECASTING THE COTTON CROP
 AND ITS EFFECT ON THE MARKET

uons; owners and operators of gins, who report as to conditions in their respec- tive localities as we'll as, at certain periods, concerning the number of bales ginned at their establishments, and, finally, bankers and merchants. Only the travelling field agents and the state agents are salaried employees. The services of the others are purely voluntary and in the interest of the common welfare but the department of agriculture is especially active in looking after their requirements in the way of seeds, documents, etc., and in this way shows, far as 1t is able, Its appreciation of the value of their work It Is, perhaps, to much to expect that the government will ever pay regular salaries. however. small, to all these thousands, and until 1t does 1t Is difficult to see how the correspondents can be expected to give any more extensive ser vice than they do at present.
 The operation of collecting and compl- ing the reports from these various sources is of unusual interest, particularly in view of the vital necessity of carrying on the work in absolute secrecy In order to pre- vent the manipulation of the market by persons who might otherwise come into possession of information as to probable final results. If any advance information has ever "leaked' from the bureau the fact has never been established. Charges of such leaks" are consistently made by interested persons, however. and the truth concerning some of the more not able cases will be dealt with hereafter.
 The reports of all the correspondents except the travelling and state agents are sent to the statistician on special form in sealed envelopes, and the figures contained in them are transferred to tabulating sheets and given proper arith- metical weight according to the acreage or production of the geographical unit they represent. During the time this work is being done the figures of the different classes of correspondents are worked out in different sections of the bureau, so that one set of clerks gains knowledge only of the particular class of figures with which it has been em- ployed. and knows nothing of the other classes. Furthermore. the forms con- taining the returns are so distributed that no one individual among the clerical force can get any information of value.
 The state statistical agents make up their own figures for their respective states and those residing more than 300 miles from Washington telegraph their final reports. in cipher, on the morning of the day the bureau Is to issue it's esti- mate Those living close to the capital mail their reports under special delivery stamps and if they are received before the date set for thessuance of the esti- mate. the statistican locks them in his safe, with their seals unbroken. and they do not leave his hands until after the official statement goes to the public.
 Cotton estimates are usually given out at noon. Washington time. and grain es- times at D. m. The days on which the figures are announced are more than busy for the statistician and his assistants. Some two or three hours before the esti- mate Is to be made public the heads of the various sections which have compiled the returns from the different classes of correspondents bring their final figures to the statistician and he, with one or two trusted aids. retires to his office or that of the secretary of the department. Then the doors are locked and there is no com munication of any kind with the outside until the estimate is ready The tabu- lated reports of the different classes of correspondents are transcribed and the totals or averages are copied in parallel columns for purposes of comparison, ana lysis. and harmonization! An average of these different sets of figures Is not al- ways struck, but the statistican. relying on his knowledge of the relative accuracy of his various sources of information. decides on figure which may be said to be a composite of all the others.
 Giving Out the Figures.
 Once the totals for all the state are made up it is matter of only a moment to compile the figures for the whole coun- try. and then the thing is done. Promptly at the hour previously indicated the statis- tician emerges from retirement and gives his completed statement to representa-