The Lewiston teller. (Lewiston, Idaho) 1900-1905, 1905-03-28
LONG RANCE
+. FORECASTS
Al Scientific Institutions in the
World Condemn. the Pres
ent Systems.


;,r weather has always been of inter-
est to mankind. Certain persons have
,.ken advantage of this fact and by
making so-called long range weather
sorecasts. realized much profit in a
financial way. These men claim to be
.b,e to foretell by various methods. the
weather for months or seasons in ad-
vance.
The leading meteOrologists of the
the present methods of long range
forecasting Public interests are in
;ured by the publication of such fore
casts, especially those that relate to
severe storms. floods, drougbts, and
other atmospheric phenomena of a
dangerous or damaging character
Farmers, merchants, and mariners who
keep pace with modern progress do not
give credence to this class of fore
casts The value of weather forecasts
is fixed by the degree Of accuracy that
is attained.
All scientific weather services in the
world have strict regard for time and
locality when forecasting weather
changes. This is not true Of the long
range forecaster. He divides a month
into periods of several days and makes
indefinite statements concerning these
periods. If any atmospheric disturb
ance occurs in remote part of the
earth near the period for which he has
predicted his storm. he seizes upon it
and publishes it as a verification of his
forecast. BY such means the spurious
forecaster is able to dupe certain peo-
pie by selling them his fake forecasts.
1t has always been realized that great
benefit would accrue to mankind if ii
could be known in advance whether a
season would be abnormally wet or dry
cold or warm This is why the sys-
TENS of long range forecasting have
been carefully studied with the hope
that some basic principles might be
established, but science has not YET
solved the problem, and there is nc
probability that it may be solved in the
near future.
The United States weather bureau
which possesses facilities that permit
it to surpass all other meteorological
services in the accuracy of it's predic-
tons, now issues forecasts each day fol
periods of one and two days in ad-
vance, and at times the period is ex.
tended to three or four days. This il
the greatest length of time for which
calculations based upon present avail
able data and information can be made
The data referred to is received daily
by telegraph from an area that em
braces the United States. Canada, th'
western Atlantic ocean, the West In
dies and Mexico. and the forecasts ar
results of careful studies from day t
day of atmospheric changes. move
ments and developments that appea
within the region of observation. Th'
daily calculations thus prepared ar
subjected to a rigid verificaton tha
yields so to IS per cent of verified fore
casts that have been made in detail TO
each twelve hours of the forecast per
1od. In the case of forecast of sever
storms. well marked cold waves frosts
are calvulated to cause serious loss o
inconvenience to commercial and in
dustrial interests, and also in the fore
casting Of floods in the principal river
OF the country. the forecasts are almos
invariably timely and accurate.
H. F. ALPS. Observer