Evening journal., 1905-06-26
WEATHER FORECASTlNG
Fallacies Of Long Range System
Denounced by Experts.
EFFORTS TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM

Hutldtn9 ana EQuAppinE large
observatory For the study OF In
tricate AtmOsphericnI Problems.
The inhnite deslrability of foreknow-
ing the seasons for the benefit OF hus-
bandmen is at once the opportunity Of
charlatans and the justification Of ma
tional weather services 1t avalls lit
tie to decry the methods Of impostors
or to brand them as fakirs. The court
Of final resort must always be a com
parison Of results, and such compari-
son every one can now make for him
self. Weather maps showing the actual
conditions on every day are now pub.
nshed by practically every civilized
nation and are accessible to all, and
all that is needed to cure the most i'm
plicit belief In almanac predictions Is
an honest comparison Of these predic-
tions for a single season with the actual
occurrences as shown by these maps.
Conspicuous instances OF failure, such
as those Of the artificial rain makers,
who a decade ago were given the full
est opportunity to test and exploit their
theories, or the colorless results of the
extensive campaign Of bombardment
as a protection against hail. which has
long been conducted In southern Eu-
rope, do not convince the credul0us.
Government meteorologlsts are not
alone In the denunciatlon of the fal-
lacies, absurdities and pernicious ef-
forts Of 30 called long range forecasts.
Professor Young, probably the fore
most American astronomer, speaking
OF lunar influences, points out that the
frequency OF the moons changes is so
great that 1t is always easy to find In
stances by which to verify belief that
changes OF the moon control conditions
on the earth. A change OF the moon
necessarily occurs about once a week.
All changes of the weather must, there
fore, occur within three and three
fourths days of a change OF the moon,
and one-half Of all changes ought to oc-
cur within forty-six hours Of a change
in the moon even IL there were no
causal connection whatever. Now, It
requires only a very slight predisposi-
tion in favor Of belief IN the effective
ness Of the moons changes to make
one forget a few Of the changes that
occur too far from the proper time.
Unquestlonably there is a general de.
sire for an extension OF the range Of
forecasts to cover the near future and,
II possible, the coming season.
Some of the ablest scientists of the
United States and Europe have devoted
much time and labor TO the study Of
this problem. They have consulted
weather records Of all countries, tax
Ing note Of the dates OF heavy storms
and making comparison with the posi-
tion Of the moon and planets 10 deter
mine II there is any discoverable con-
nection between the movement of those
minor bodies and the sweep OF storm
eddles in the earth's atmosphere The
consensus Of opinion has been that
there is no foundation Of fact or philos-
ophy for that system Of long range fore
casts.
Students In the primary class In
meteorology learn that the ever chang
ing phenomena Of the weather are all
referable TO the action Of the sun up
on the earth and its atmosphere, va
pors and gases; that the constantly
radiated energy Of the sun supports
| heat, light and electric force in the
solar system.
The libraries of the United States
weather bureau contain the substance
and much Of the detail Of all that is
known Of weather wisdom, ancient and
modern, and the scientists OF this bu-
reau certainly are familiar with the es-
sence Of this knowledge. Those who
are in a position to know are well
aware that every possible effort is be
ing made to extend our knowledge OF
the laws that control weather condi.
tons and meanwhile TO give 10 those
who are vitally concerned the most
trustworthy information obtainable. II
Is a matter Of common experience that
the notable success of some CONNER.
cial article Of merit IS sure to flood
the market with spurious goods of the
same class, which unscrupulous ven
dors spread before the indiscriminat.
ing public. The rapid strides of the
United States weather bureau in re
cent years toward popular favor
through the widespread dissemination
Of the forecasts service made pos
sible largely by the phenomenal spread
Of the telephone and the development
Of the rural delivery .service-have ap-
parently given a new impetus to un
scientific, not to say unscrupulous, fore
casts, based upon some theory OF cy
cles or Of planetary control.
The problem Of seasonal forecasts Il
receiving at the hands Of the ablesi
and most painstaking students of botf
continents a comprehensive consldera
ton that Is certain 20 be fruitful and
far reaching in IFS ultimate results.
SO important and so pressing is the
work and so promising Is the field that
the chief Of the weather bureau Is
building and equipping a large observ
atory, wherein the best talent available
WIN soon be employed to study the in
tricate and profound problems Of th'
atmosphere, whose solution promise.
improvement over present methods and
results in forecasting and may lead fl
time to seasonal predictions on a truly
scientific basis.