The Montgomery advertiser., 1905-12-09
Total Av. -. I8,s8451s. .1Is, ,os6I1O, ,1s7

In converting the quantity ginned into bales of 500 pounds gross in the SSaes Wees not %aers asaabs savs nssn
 average weight for the entire belt
 named 5191. It will be noticed from the above copies on the first of Decem- in the States of North and South Caro- lima. Geofgia and Oklahoma. up to the first of December in bales of 500
 So or ba the ngrea1 States by 5S,122 bales. As the census reports for the past three years show that minimum of 12 per cent. of the States mentioned after the first of December it is plain that the depart ment's estimate for the four States in least IA per cent. Second in the six teen days ending December first there has been ginned in the State of Texas 26,lOO running bales and within 1S4.ooo bales of the bureau estimate of of 500 pounds. It Is therefore plain that the bureau estimate for the State of Texas be largely exceeded. Third by prorating the. government figures there was ginned after the first of December during the past three years. the dSd following amognts yia 1904
 1902. 2.63O.0O0 bales. And as today's returns show that the crop is undoubt- edly late in the trans Mississippi sec ton it Is altogether probable that a minimum of 2,000.000 bales remains this year to be ginned after the first of December. Adding this quantity to today's returns the indicative growth for the current season Is about 10,700,- 900 and probably more, which, as I have previously pointed out indicates over 11,000.000 bales when taken in conjunction with the residum of last years supply remaining on the plan tations Of course there will be and has already been claimed by the bulls that this crop has been picked, gin- ned and marketed with a precipitate rapidity altogether beyond precedent. That this should have been the case in adjurations to hold I have always re- garded as. impossible for have too much respect for the force of MT. Jordan's eloquence to believe 1t could have been entirely disregarded. Cir cumstances disprove of the advance that the present crop had been gin- ned up to the first of December is afforded by the experience of the Uni ted states government in 1902. On the hfth of November. 1902. the census of October of that year 5.6S3. 900 bales had ben ginned and that this amount was 601 per cent. of the entire crop on which basis the indicated crop was 9,055.917. Again in the same season on the fifth of January, 1903. it re- ber, 1902. there had been ginned s. 92S,77O bales. which 1t was again stated was estimated to be 90.2 per cent. of the entire crop on which 9,S9S,S60 bales. As a matter of fact the crop for the season 1902-3, proved to be according to the census 10,630,945 bales and according to Secretary Hester of the New Orleans Cotton Exchange
 the total crop was 1O.727559 bales
 It will thus be seen that with all the facilities at command the United States government underestimated the crop by nearly 12 per cent. on the Afth of November, and by 7.7 per cent. on the fifth of January through the application. of the same method which the National Ginners Associa- tio is now adopting. If as I confiden- tially believe. this years production of cotton Is in the neighborhood of H. 000.09D 1t is on the reported acreage oi 26.l17d5s approximately 200 per cent for any part of 1t will. l fear, be found to be an "Irridescent Dream"
 Theodore H. Price.