Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1905-11-27
POLITICS IN ENGLAND
Indications Point to a L B.
eral Victory.
Special caslesram to The Star.

Special Cahleeram TO The Star.
LONDON, November 2T.-Appelrancss in
dicate great liberal gains at tie next gem
eIai election. In fact the results of recent
by-e'eetions everywhere show that the po-
litical pendulum is swinging away from the
conservatives in the direction of the. lib
erals. Thirty-nine unionist seats have been
attacked since May, 1862, and a majority
have been won by the liberals Orkney
and northeast Lanark are excluded from
this calculation, their party experiences
have significance in this connection.
The positions of the parties at the conclu-
sion of the last general election was: Union
lists, 461; liberals 1877; nationaiists, 50. Since
then twelve unienists have crcsseu the moor
OF the house and one Irish nationalist has
reinforced the Irish unlonists. One liberal
has joined the ministerialists The figures
so far then stand thus: Unionists, a91;
liberals, 13S; ma tionalists, 81.
Taking the hy-elections from May. 1902
to date--the period selected by liberals as
indicative of future results-the further de-
duction of nineteen seats must be made,
thus reducing their total to 372 and raising
the liberal figure to 217 OF the 312 unionist
seats twenty-five are held by Irish union
ISIS, and If lost would not go to the liberals,
but TO the nationalist, SO that they must
be left out of calculations as to possible
liberal gains. A further reduction OF union
list seats open to successful attack may
reasonably be made on account of seats at
tackled unsuccessfully at by-elections.
Best Machine to Win.
If the liberal party. with organization alb
normally efficient as it is at by-elections
could not win unionist seats In isolated con-
tests, they may be regarded as impregnable
al general election. OF thirty nine union
list seats attacked a goodly number re-
manned faithful to their previous convic-
lions. Deducttng, then, twenty-five Irish
o.
nables, the number of unionist seats open
to possible effective attack Is 800. Assum-
ing that liberal successes proceed at the
same ratio as at the -elections-say nine
teen to thirtynine-the gain in total would
be-1G1 So far no account has been taken
of probable unionist gains. 1t is of course,
absurd and against all experience to sup
pose there will be no unionist gains. In
1900, when the government had majority
of 1872 over liberals and nationalists COM
bined and liberalism was at its lowest ebb
thirty-sX seats were won from ministerial
lists.
The labor members have already a sepa-
rate organization with separate whips. and
it is this section which promises to materi-
ally Increase It's members in the next par
Lament. 1t is expected, in fact, that there
will be a solid party Of twenty-five labor
members, more than enough, by combina
ton with the Irish and unionists, to SUBJ
merge the liberal majority. At elections
the local liberal organizations have the help
of the best agents the party possesses.
from other constituencies, and the whole
machinery at headquarters is set going to
provide popular speakers, distribute liter
allure and generally further the interests of
the candidate.
Unionists Better Organized.
Taking the country whole the union
its organizations are undoubtedly better and
less ephemeral than the liberal organiza-
TONS and when each constituency is thrown
orally by far the more effective election
machinery to hand In the next place. 1t
is by no means certain that the Irish ma
tionalist vote will go solid for the liberal
candidates. Mr.. Redmond Is astute enough
to realize that home rule. SO far as the
liberal leaders are concerned, is gradually
recedng into the background, and second.
that the hope of his party lies In holding
the balance of power in the house of COM
mons clear majority of liberals over
unionists and nationalsts combined is the
very last thing the Irish leader would de-
sire.
Another not negligible factor in the cleo
toral issue is the Independent labor candi-
dates, who, third candidates, will jeop-
ardize and probably destroy the chances of
liberal candida ties in number of constitu-
encies. 1t is, of course, impossible TO re-
duce to arthmetical formula the modifying
effect of these various factors upon the
prospective liberal ma jority, but they will
exercise a serious influence upon liberal
electoral prospects beyond all doubt
The conclusion of the whole matter would
appear to be, however, that the liberals will
win. but that the liberal government will
be controlled by the Irish nationalist and
the very advanced labor party, since these
elements will undoubtedly hold the balance
Of power in the house of commons after the
general elections.
Meanwhile word comes from Birmingham
that II Is Mr.. Chamberlan's intention to
force a general election soon possible.
Orders have been given to all of the asso
Citations in that district to have their Or
ganization perfect for the coming fray. The
intention seems to be to force tariff reform
to the front during the pending cabinet
councils, and by the retirement of Mr.. Aus
ten Chamberlain and Mr.. Bonar Law to
compel Mr. Balfour to resign and dissolve
parliament. Mr.. Chamberlain denies the de-
tails Of this report, but adds that he has
never concealed his own opinion in favor
of an early dissolution.