The Montgomery advertiser., 1905-01-25
TAKING OF STATISTICS
INTEREST IN HOW THEY ARE
 GATHERED.
In Testimony of John Hyde Description is Given as to the Method of
 Compiling Government
 Estimates. 4.

partment of Agriculture has received so much attention with attendant dis- cussion, especially among Southern lCongressn1en. as the methods employed | by the department in making cotton estimates. Skepticism in various quar- ters as to the accuracy of the depart ment's crop and condition reports has led to line of inquiry which has even taken the form of resolutions. One of these by Representative Livingston of Georgia was recently laid on the ta- ble by vote which sustained the House Committee on Agriculture in its support of the department.
 The testimony of John Hyde, statis- tician of the department before tho sub- committee recently appointed to inquire into the sources of estimating the l2- 162, ,O0o-bale crop brought out some in teresting descriptions as to the method of compiling such estimates. Extracts from the stenographic report, such as Is given below, are pertinent. Said Statistician Hyde:
 "The estimate of 12.fs2.ooo bales Is based upon the mean. It comes very close to the mean of all classes of cor respondents.
 The department began it's crop-re- porting system with county correspond ents only about forty years ago, and it has at the present time 259 correspond ents who have been reporting to 1t for twenty years or longer. In 1SS7-SS State statistical agents were added, each with -osganized corps Of correspondents entirely independent of those reporting to Washington. In 1896 township correspondents were ad- ded. and since I became the statistician we have had reports from ginners and |n o GnaCia1 liaf nf h lr ,f merchants. and one of planters, and the reports from all these different classes of correspondents are tabulat- ed separately; that is to say, those of each class separately for each State, and the results are arranged in parallcl columns, and at the last moment be- hind locked doors open the sealed re- ports of the State statistical agents and those of the special field agents and add their estimates in the proper places. And I know the tendency, where there is one. on the part of a State statistical agent, to be rather optimistic or rather pessimistic, as the case may be, and am governed by my knowledge of the men and Of the differ ent classes of correspondents working out the official figures.
 The Chairman--How did you arrive at the distinction between last year and this? In the one year you took tho highest estimates, and in the other case you averaged the estimates.
 Mir. Hyde--We last year took figures somewhat higher than the average in. all cases, and for certain States the highest reported, because We realized that there would be more than ordi- rally strong tendency to Underestimate the crop. It was but little short of IT Aixnafar that South. and the feeling was almost ev- anywhere pessimistic. Our estimate came within 1.5 per cent of the actual crop. ftE a.tN A.'e
 Mir. scott-Is there any class of these reports which you have learned to rely upon more than any others?
 MT. Hyde-As to cotton, the State statistical agents and the ginners are the most reliable. aside, of course. from our special field agents or trav- cling representa9ves To our travel ll'ngt representatives all sources of in- Formation are open. They are given rowing commissions, and every legiti- mate source of information they are free to use.
 Mir scott--And their reports are. therefore. more reliable than the oth- CTS?
 Mir. Hyde-They are the most relia- bIe of all. They are absolutely with out prejudice. Most of the men have been trained in the office, and they know just what we want--an un. biased. unprejudiced report.
 MT. Scott--Now, how many report ars of all classes do you have?
 MT. Hyde--A great many thousand. l should not like even roughly to es- tfmate them without counting them up. We have as State statistical agent a Democratic ex-Governor of the State. a man of the very highest character who was appointed state statistical agent by Secretary Morton in 1894 and has been retained through the last two administrations by Secretary Wilson an admirable man fin every respect ex- Governor Northen-with whose name am sure every member of the Com mlttee is familiar. He has a large corps of correspondents who report to him at Atlanta and who are entirely Independent of the correspondents re- porting to Washington. He complies their reports himself and makes them the basis of his own report to the sta- ttstician at Washington, in which he deals with the State as unit.
 Then in every County in Georgia. as elsewhere, we have a County corres- pondent who has sub-correspondent In the remoter parts of the County who report to, him on the conditions and prospects in theIr respective local tiles. The County correspondeut makes the County the ge, Graphical unit of his report to Washington, and the reports of all such correspondents are tabulated separately from all oth- CTS.
 Then in every township-I do not mean the designation township" as much used in the South, but in every election precinct, rural ward, and mic litia or magisterial district-we have a correspondent who makes that par- ticular minor civil division the geo graphical basis of his reports, and the reports of all such correspondents are tabulated by themselves.
 MT. Scott-Are these township .re- porters paid in any way?
 MT. Hyde-No; neither the townshiD nor the County correspondents are paid.
 Secretary Wilson--We give them documents and seed, you know.
 Mir. Hyde-Now. as to the ginners. while We sometimes ask them as to the amount of cotton ginned up to a certain date-as compared to the amount of cotton ginned up to the core responding date year aRo-the prIn- cipal service they render us is not in their capacity as ginners, but merely as men who are in an exceptionally fa- vorable position for judging as to the condition and prospects of the cotton crop.
 And then a large number of individ. uaI planters are invited % report, not as to what Is within their own general observation. but as t. their experieuce on their own farms and plantations