The watchman and southron. [volume] (Sumter, S.C.) 1881-1930, 1905-06-21
Sew Series No.

il: normal seasons. Cader normal
conditions the spinners OF the world
ca W over stocks equal to from ona
to two months consumption, the av
erage being about six weeks supplies.
At the ends of the past two famine
years they held only two to three
weeks supplies. I place the con-
su.lption of American cotton this
season at 100000, although some
authorities place it at 12,250,000. The
spinners have secured 10,500,000
bales plus their stock on Sept. 1 last,
estimated at $4,000 bales, or 11,050,-
900 bales total. If their takings av-
erage $4,000 bales weekly from now
on; or 2,20o, 900 bales, their total sup
ply will be 13,250,0o bales, which
would leave mill stocks sufficient for
only five weeks consumption, sup
ply below the average, and danger
ously limited with the mills SO enor-
mously committed ahead. This would
leave visible supply Of American
cotton of 100000 bales, which was
considered a moderate visible in
former seasons when it used to range
from 100000 to 100000 bales and
cotton ranged in price from to
10 1-2 cents per pound. My guess on
the distribution Of the surplus Sept. 1
next visible and invisible, would
therefore be about as follows:
Held by planters. 100000 bales
normal.
spinners' stocks, 100000 bales
small.
Visible American, 100000 bales
moderate.
Mind you, we must get away from
freak and famine conditions and COM
pare with normal conditions. With
the above estimate verified and trade
only normally good, cotton should
range between and 10 cents as the
crop news comes good or bad. We are
figuring on good times now, not hard
times.
Now, let US consider the possibili-
ties and probabilities and endeavor to
reach a reasonabl conclusion as to
the chances at present for supply
of the raw material the coming seas
on. But first, let us assume various
yields for the coming crop and arbi-
trarily distribute the surplus which
would remain from each on Sept. 1,
1906. assuming next years consump-
ton to be 12,000,0OO bales. 1t is OBJ
vious that if the next crop is 12,000,-
Ooo the statistics on Sept. 1, 1906 will
be the same as those on Sept. 1, 1905,
or about as follows: Held by plant
ers-22O,0C0 bales-normal; spinners
stocks, 1,250,0O0 bales-small; visi-
BILE American, 100000 bales-mod-
crate With a crop Of 11,500,000
bales we would have about as fol-
lows: Spinners' stocks, 100000
bales-small; held by planters, 120,-
0O0-small; visible supply, 100000
very small. With Z. crop Of 100000
we would have: Spinners' stocks,
/, 600, ,O00-very small; held by plant
ers, nothing-famine visible supply,
$4,000 bales-famine. It is useless
70 proceed further down the scale, for
any yield under 100000 bales
would intensity the famine conditions
resulting from a crop Of not over H.
100000 bales.
Now then, how large yield seems
possible for the growing crop? De-
duct ia per cent from the acreage;
assume that there is no reduction pei
acre in fertilizers; assume that the
@NSS
as the last; assume that the boil Wee
vii over an increased area will destroy
no more late planted cotton this sea-
son than early planted cotton last sea-
son, assume a late open fall, and the
yield could be 100000 maximum.
How large a yield seems possible
for the growing crop? Deduct from
the present crop of 13,o00,O00c bales,
11.4 per cent acreage; assume that
the season will continue only 5.S
points lower in condition than last
year. remembering that the conditions
shown in August, Septempe. and Oc-
tober last year were RESPECTIVELY the
next to the highest on record; con-
dition of 77.2 per cent being per
cent lower than one Of S3, deduct Z
per cent also, making a deduction Of
1874 per cent from 13,600,000 bales,