The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1905-03-19
A CITY or 100000 IN 1920.
TELEPHONE ENGINEERS GUESS
AT NEW YORPS GROWTH.

Millions Of Money stAked en- the Accuracy
81 Their Foreoast-u IL Larger ThAn
the estimate Of the Census Bureau
-WtFeless TelephOny Net In sight.
A phass Of the New York Telephone
Compapy's work Of which the public knows
little "A a systsmatic endeavor to forecast
from time TO time the probable population
in Ia various telephone centres. Ihese
forecasts ar scarcely les important to the
Fuoceasful operation OF the business than
the manufacture Of telephones or the laying
OF wires, for upon their accuracy hinges
the financial profit or loss OF the company.
In order 10 Law out the system Of subways
properly, to locate the telephone central
stations, TO decide their number and size and
to determine trunk line routes and cable
crossings, It is necessary TO forecast changes
in the population likely TO occur, not only
in one, two or three years, but ss far ahead
a. twenty Year,. For this reason the eI-
psrts employed by the company have
studied the development Of New York IN
way which has probably never been fol-
lowed either In this country or abroad
Asa result the plans Of the telephone
company are now being made for the growth
to be expected IN periods as far ahead a.
1925. The basis for most OF It's building
operations now Is q forecast for 1920 when
vas made by its experts in 1902.
some idea Of the material used In arriving
a. conclusions and Of the methods by which
the forecasters obtain results was gained
the other day by a SUN reporter during
talk With the telephone compapy's cher
engineer Said he:
I'VE have found, as q rule, that the most
reliable statistics concerning the growth
Of American cities are those given in the
reports Of the United States Census Bureau,
and in making our forecasts these reports
have been carefully studied and the past
Erowth Of the different cities OF the United
States analysed and compared with that
ofNew York. In addition TO this the gre with
Of London, Paris, Berlin and Vienna has
been compared with that which has taken
place in the large cities Of this country.
In the last census enumeration, taken
In 1900, the population OF cities OF $4,000
end more Inhabitants lie given for a score
OF years back, and this interesting con-
customs reached: In 1880 the population Of
the 100 cities OF the United States was about
saIO 600: ten years later 1t was IL, 900 900,
an increase Of about 5000 900. OF. to give
exact figures. Of 10 5-iO per cent, and in
1900 the population had jumped TO 1900
600. indicating an average gain OF only
S2B-lO per cent, a result which would seem
TO argue that in the last decade mentioned
the cities had not increased At the same
geomstrio ratio as during the decade pre-
vious Notwithstanding that the actual
total gain was almost precisely the sane
In both decades.
Reasoning from these figures the Gov
eminent Census Department has got out
FEDERAL Bulletin No. (which, by the way,
doesn't meet with entire approval on the
part Of all statisticians-Whsrein estimates
Of the largest cities Of the United States
are Owen for 1901, 1907 and 1908. based upon
The actual count In 1900, after that the count
bsinE increased for each year folio owing
according to the average number OF in
habltAnts actually gained annually be-
tween 1890 and 1900. In othor words the
estimate is based upon uniform increase
In number which means q constantly de-
ereSsing percentage.
Now, that method didn't appeal TO us.
IL nAkinE our forecasts We pay no stten-
ton TO theSe figures, for the reason that the
growth Of New York IL not analogous 10
The growth as a whole OF thess cities Of
over 1900 population. New York has
pscuhArities Of situation and Of conditions.
New York 10 not an average city.
Then In scrutiniHing the records Of other
cities We noticed that the larger ones in
the northeastern part Of the country. par
ticularly thoss adjacent TO the seabosrd,
had . record Of growth quite different from
that indicated In, the census bulletin.
In figuring out our 1870 forecast We
decided "a estimate the population Of The