The watchman and southron. [volume] (Sumter, S.C.) 1881-1930, 1905-06-21

average yield per acre we shall have
still greater cotton famine.
I assume the acreage to be 2S,112,-
900 as estimated by the correspond
ents of the Agricultural Department.
I ignore Hyde's afterthought that the
acreage only meant acreage actually
planted. If they plant on to June 10,
the acreage Will be as large as last
year; and if they plant on to July /,
it will be still larger. But they are
not going to plant on, and the cotton
would make nothing if they did. The
planting was stopped in order to try
to save the planted areas from the
grass. However, any little planting
done after May 25 is more than offset
by abandonment of acreage. I have
lust returned from a trip through a
part of the eastern belt where they
claim that the crop conditions are the
best in the South. All the cotton
saw that was cultivated to good
stands was no further advanced than
it should have been on May 10. There
was as much Of it grassy, or not up,
or badly beaten by rains and needing
cultivation. get worse reports from
the middle and western districts, the
worst of all coming from Texas. BY
reference to weather reports it will be
seen that during the last crop there
were complaints Of low temperatures
and dry weather about the time the
crop was being cultivated, and this
gave them clean fields and plants with
good tap roots This crop has been
soaked with rain during its similar
stage of development, and with its
surface roots, must have weather
made to order to avoid failure, as it
can Withstand neither continuous rain
nor dry weather. The boil weevils
now cover 35 per cent Of the total
cotton area. In consideration Of all
this I cannot feel sanguine of any
thing more than good average yield
per acre, no matter if conditions do
improve, which would mean crop Of
II, 900, 900 bales.
In the New York Commercial Of
April 27 last I called the attention of
the trade to the enormous short in
terest existing in spot cotton in the
form of goods sold ahead. Before II
o'clock that day Theodore H. Price.
being a bull that day, had appropriat-
ed my argument and was distributing
it here and sending it over the wires
over his own signature. However,
that does not detract in the least from
the force of the argument.
The situation presented to US by the
spinnersof the world is something en-
tirely new to the cotton trade and
gives us problems to solve, facts to
consider md risks to guard agains'
ture. Never in the history Of the cot
+! ton trade has there been such pros
perity and such demand for goods. In
former seasons we have known the
mills of some countries to be sold
ahead for six months while those in
some other country would not be do
| ing so we'll But here we have them
allsold ahead to an average date of
y months, and at such an enormous
rate of consumption that it requires
| ,0D0. 900 bales a month to keep them
running. And the sales have been
made at most profitable figures, much
above the present price Of cotton.
Still there is no let up to the demand
for goods, and they are steadily ad-
vancing and the mills are still SELL
| irg ahead.
1 estimate that since the beginning
of this season the spinners have sold
goods requiring 20,0O0,OO0 bales of
cotton. and they cannot stop selling
altogether. So far they have had in
old stocks and takings about 11,000,-
600 bales and are short about 9,000,-
! 600 bales, and are still selling at high
er prices. A part Of this short inter
est is carried by cotton dealers who
have sold ahead to the mills, and a
part Of it is carried by the spectators
| who have sold the future hedges that
have been bought by the spot deal
ers and spinners, but the short in
terest is ther just the same.
A consumption of 100000 bales a
month and a short interest in spot
cotton of 100000 bales! Who in the
cotton trade has ever heard of such
things as these? Who has ever had
any experience that would be of value