Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1905-01-20
TOFORECAST ERUPTIONS
WILL SCIENCE BE ABLE TO LEARN
THE WAYS OF THE voLCANop
Investigation of the Subject of Earth
quake and Upheaval of Mountains
Biologists at Work.
From the Brooklyn Eagle.

From the Brooklyn Eagle
Recent eruptions of some of the great
volcanoes have inspired renewed discus
sion of this subject by scientists in all
parts of the world. The fear of repetition of
the disastrous outbreaks of the past and the
efforts to forecast future outbreaks have
made the subject one of intense interest.
In the researches that have been made,
and are still being made mere academic in
designations the part of geological ex-
perts is minor consideration, in view of
the vital points to be achieved-the preser-
walton OF life and property.
In The meantime in view of the disasters
OF the past and the disasters that may take
place at any moment in the future the lay
man naturally asks: What has science
done in the way of arriving at a solution or
the causes of volcanoes and possible pre-
ventive of loss of life and property by time
l. forecasts
The Weather Bureau.
The United States weather bureau is ar
ranging at Mount Weather to forecast the
weather for one year. In Washington there
is already in complete operation a depart
ment in which floods accurately prog
nosticated. enabling whole communities to
seek timely shelter, and resulting in the
saving of millions of dollars of property
annually Certain scientific institutions are
working and in fact, have been seek
ing for years methods of foreteilng the
eruption of volcanoes. For forty years
there has been an observation station on
Mount Vesuvius. in which a careful record
of the activity of the volcano is recorded.
The last great eruption of Vesuvius was in
1877 and since then it has been more or less
active. Since October, 1892, the French have
maintained an observation station at Mont
Pelee. seven miles from the crater, and
every effort Is made to keep accurate rec
ords and investigate the cause of eruption
by means of visual observations and the
most improved Instruments. But thus far
no method has been devised whereby
trustworthy forecast of an eruption can be
made.
Ever since man first began to observe cos
biological effects in a scientific way, there
have been theories in regard to volcanoes
and earthquakes. The most recent theories
advanced by the highest authorities on the
subject have arrived doubtless very close to.
the truth. but thus far no definite knowl-
edge of the actual cause of volcanic erup-
lions has been adduced, as the theories Tor
the most part are speculative. The first
important point in volcanic study is the
cause. Without the cause being known
there can be no practical method of prog
noSticatio
Arrhenius' Theory.
One of the latest theories, and one which
seems to be most generally accepted by
careful students, is that of Professor
Arrhenius of Stockholm. The results of
his most recent researches confirm in the
most practical manner strengthening be-
lief on the part of the latter-day scientists
as to volcanic origin in the light of modern
physical and chemical discoveries. The
magma or molten mass of the volcano he
asserts, is charged with water vapor that
has reached extremely high tempera-
ture. This yapor, he says, presses upward
through the seething mass in gas bubbles,
and the column of liquid that it carries
with it explodes with great violence. AS
the vapor is expended other water is sup
Piled. with new gases. in the case of con-
tinual eruptiOnS, are constantly entering
the volcano. The strength of vapor, of
course. increases as its temperature is
raised. Thus water coming in contact with
a viscoust ma gina at temperature of from
1000 TO 2.ooo degrees, acts like powerful
acid and by a mixture with the molten,
mass ca uses all to become a fluid. which,
swelling and increasing in volume. forces
its way with terrific force through the vol
canic cones, or makes new outlets, carving
a mass of lava smoke and cinders with 1t.
The process of this ascent and explosion he
compared 10 the cction of a geyser. The
materials elected from all volcanoes is the
same and consists of gases and yaporS,
water, lava and fragmentary substances.
The cause of some earthquakes is I'M
doubtedly due to volcanic action, but there
are many instances where this is not the
case. as in the falling in of the roof of a
subteTranean cavity, or the sudden snap
ping of rocks, which give way under in
tense strain. Where they are of volcanic
origin they are studied directly in cOnnec-
ton with that subject, and in fact the
two studies are more or less related to one
another.
Study of Volcanoes.
The study of volcanoes in the last few
years has developed into a separate
science. To understand even the theories of
their causes and effects one must be an ex-
pert on the subject In the American Mu-
Scum Of Natural History of New York an
especial interest has been taken in observ-
ing eruptions in all parts of the world.
Directly in charge of this branch of science
is DR.. Edmund Otis Hovey, associate
curator of the geological department of the
museum DR.. Hoyey is graduate of Yale
University and was a student at Heidel-
berg making special study of geology
and allied subjects. He has been with the
American Museum of Natural History for
ten years and has been a student of vol
came phenomena for twenty years He
was sent by the museum to investigate the
recent eruptions of Mont Pelee on Mar
Unique and of Soufriere ON st. Vincent
taking passage with other scientists on the
Dixie when that vessel conveyed supplies
from the United States to the sufferers on
the stricken islands. He was a member of
the hrst party to ascend Soufriere after the
erupuons making three ascents of that
volcano and four aScentS of Pelee taking
photographs and making notes in the very
mouths OF the craters while still in erup-
ton Since then he has delivered MANY
REQUIRES on the activity of these volcanoe
and other subjects. His inyestiga ton in
the line of volcanic study has resulted in
visits To Nesuvius. Aetna Stromboli in the
Mediterranean and the VuIcano islands
In l'Di he again visited Pelee and made
further investiga TONS