The Newtown bee., 1905-06-02
TOWN TOPICS RURAL REAL ESTATE.

RURAL REAL ESTATE.
 SIDE LIGHTS ON PRESENT, AND A RE-
 VIEW .OF THE FACTORS THAT WILL
 INFLUENCE FUTURE, VALUES OF
 FARM PROPERTY.
 The article Tn THE BEE of last week in regard to the auction of the Stillson real estate was read with much inter est by the writer. It was a startling commentary on the present status Of rural real estate as Invaluable consid- eration, or standard of value. A sub head of the article stated, Prices Rule Low" Again, in the text, is the assertion, Flow prices ruled" There is no doubt that the writer could have gambled on that fact, at any odds offered, and won out. It is only stating trite fact to say that for years country property has been constantly depreciating. in value. It was long, long ebb. It was perigee tide in rural realty but like all other tides it was bound to turn, and it has turned. In fact the period of lowest ebb was at least two years ago, since which time an upward tendency in value has been apparent, slight as yet and slow of development, but as sure as slow. In any commodity when values depreciate the downward tendency, or acceleration, is much more marked than is the recovery when the reaction finally comes. A farm that was considered worth at a conservative valuation, 5000 20 years ago would to-day sell for scarcely one-third that o fhnr oo11 # hirh1u inn proved and in the pink of condition. Under ordinary circumstances with conditions relatively similar to those of the past, it would require probably 30 to B years, at least, for the values of 20 years ago for farm property to again obtain. In any section of this grand old commonwealth hundreds of farms, and good ones, too, with at tractive, durable and commodious buildings thereon, can be bought for much less than it would cost to replace the buildings alone, and even if re- placed would probably be less substan- apt to be ''built on honor" as they were 20 years ago, notwithstanding "uniOn" labor and ''TruSt" materials which should, if all we read and are told be true, form composite of qual- ity unequalled and invincible. But numerous as are the farms for sale their number is not the legion of two years ago. Those who are wise to the real conditions know that the bed rock level of low prices has been reached. A large number of small farms of the cheaper class have passed into new hands during the past few years. In a large percentage of these cases na- tive of the sofia New Englander- moved out when the sale was made, or was the last occupant in the case of the abandoned farms, and family of foreign birth, usually the purchasers, moved in. In some sections so many of these changes have been effected that the foreign element very largely prepOnderates over the native. This, however, while interesting as subject for sociological speculation is foreign to the subject of this article. It may, however, be made the basis of a future article.
 It is very evident, however, that these brothers of foreign birth are not a marked degree. They read aright the signs of the times and back their judgment with their money. And 'money talks" to use an expressive slang phrase. In no case, in several instances l have in mind, has one of these foreign investors in our rural real estate been previous resident of the locality in which he has seen fit to cast his future lot. In many instances they resided in the most thickly pop ul3ted districts of New York City and had done so for years. This may be but the preliminary of great migra- population from the cOngeSted centerS to the rural districts. If so they have without doubt selected the psycholog- ical moment. There has never been time since Connecticut was colony when homes could be bought as cheap ly as at present. And there will Dever be time in the future, near or remote, when present prices will again be the rule. If there ever was a time when country real estate was worth cOnsid- ering as an investment, that time is the present. And the reason does not have to be sought. The factors that will make most for appreciation of values in farm property will in large part be logical product of the future. But their full fruitiOn will be a matter of years, not decades, and when they shall be with us in their full maturity 90 per cent of the farms of Connecti- cut, and of every other state, will be worth as much and doubtless more than they were during the period of inflated values just after the Civil war. l While a pronounced influx from city to country would materially augment values, yet it would be too much to expect that such influence would cause an upward trend of over 50 per cent under any combination of the most favorable circumstances.
 That there will, however, be min. imum increase of at least 300 per cent over present values is as certain as the laws of gravitation. And this will take place during the next 1( years. Plainly, I mean that in 191! the average value of all farm lands ir Connecticut will be 300 per cent great CT than at present. Il say 90 per cen1 because the remaining 10 per cent, con sisting of land immediately adjacent
 to the cities and larger towns will not owing to the nature of the factOr' causing the increase. experience ris, in value as marked ratio as lano
 more remote from market centers. IT
 accomplish this great and, to thoS'
 who retain their present holdings o
 invest at present prices, prOtitabl
 change in land values the commercial
 leaven Ia term l use for want of bet
 ter one) must be found, upon analysis
 to be powerful in action, universal il | IdppllCdUlOu duu p0Tu1duCA
 in all it's attributes.
 Without considering the pOSsibl
 effect of movement from the city t
 the country, the effect of which woul
 at this time be extremely uncertail
 even if we knew it was coming, we fin ? that there are three great cause
 which are bound to be far reachin
 and salutary in their effect upon rura
 real estate values, and fir om their na
 ture no man living can stop, change 0