New-York tribune., 1905-07-04
RECORD COTTON PANIC
DUE TO CROP CONDITION.
Government Estimate - Per Cent
Jump of 100 Points.

A bear panic. one of the most severe in the
history OF the cotton trade. with prices bound
ing up 100 points in ten minutes. precipi-
tGted yesterday on the local and New-orleans
cotton exchanges by the announcement of the
governments estimate of a per cent as the
June 25 condition OF the crop. The report is
sued on June i had given the condition as Of
May 25 as 17.2 per cent, and the weekly re-
ports of the Weather Bureau meanwhile had in
dicated a general Improvement In view of
this fact. and in six out of the last ten years
the departments July report has shown a
higher condition than has the June report II
generally expected that yesterdays esti-
mate would exceed the June figure Of tl-2.
many believing that il would be placed as high
as so or 81. Several OF the cotton statisticians.
too. had within the last few days issued fig
ures showing an improvement. the only excep-
zion having been Miss Giles, whose estimate
was 76 per cent.
When. therefore. at noon yesterday Superin-
tendent King read from the rostrum Of the
New-York Cotton Exchange the estimate of "a
per cent as the Department OF Agriculture S
estimate OF the crop condition on June %. the
entire trade rushed in TO buy cotton. The mar
ket IN the morning hours had been weak and
declining under heavy liquidation in anticpa-
ton OF a bullish report, and few minutes be-
fore j. O'Clock October. the most active option
was selling at 9.4S cents. eight points under
Saturdays close. Just before noon a rally 20
$50 cents occurred. The first sale after the gov
ernment figures were heard was at $50. and
thereafter the price bid up. amid wild ex-
citement, TO 1856 cents pound by l2:lO' an
advance of an even 100 points. or 50 bale.
in the days Of the Sully market, year and
half ago, there We're fluctuations Of as much as
so points, but an advance Of 100 points. a
q hnf M
is believed by veterans Of the cotton trace TO De
q record breaking movement
The other positions We're bid up with as fran
nc eagerness as the october. the brokers, massed
densely around the trading pit being nearly
swamped with buying orders, which they exc
cuted as best they might in the prevailing ex-
element and confusion. All this buying. which
was chiefly for account Of the terrified shorts
meant corresponding selling, which came from
bulls who satisfied TO take their large
profits in sight and from a host OF spectators
who had put in stop loss orders. After the
high level had been reached, soon after noon,
the market began 10 iuctuate wildly, under the
opposing pressure 10 cover short contracts ana
10 take profits, October declining 40 points De-
fore 12:30 O'clock
BY ? o'clock the urgent demands OF the shorts
had been satisfied and the market quieted down
Tor little time, soon TO advance again on
heavy foreign and outside buying, the close
being only slightly under the best of the day,
with the active futures selling from 81 10 lo1
points. about 81 TO 50 bale higher than
at the close on Saturday. The total sales were
estimated at fully 10eO.oO0 bales. Spot cotton
in this market advanced so points. 10 The basis
OF 1850 cents pound for middling.
With reduction of 10 TO 10 per cent in the
acreage from last year, bringing this years area
20 p. 10000 acres, the estimated condition OF
II per cent is figured TO indicate crop of from
100D0.00O 10 l0..y1aooo bales, comparing with
last years crop of 13.60oOO0 bales. The July l
estimate in 1893, when the acreage was about
the size OF This years and the crop only
about 10O00.O00 bales. was al per cent The
low prices prevailing for the staple during the
winter and spring are believed by many compe-
tent authorities TO have induced such extensive
buying by spinners as virtually 10 have cleaned
up the surplus stock Of last years crop, and in
view of the indics ted short crop of the current
season lO1k cents a pound is regarded as none
too high. Mr.. Price predicts materially higher
quotations.