Keowee courier. [volume] (Pickens Court House, S.C.) 1849-current, 1905-01-04
IN THE HANDS OF rRE BEARS.

, Cenueu StatemenG OF CnS CObCOn LbuatlOn
as viewed from al, ultra bearish staud-
point. While we do uot feel that his
theories arc necessarily correct, yet there
is much in several Of his statements aud
conclusions that will prove of moro than
passing interest and may be turned to
good account by the farmers who still
have cotton unso,d. We will not at
tempt to give Mr.. Prices theories and
deductions in full, but some paragraphs
are worthy or thoughtful consideration.
A few extracts follow:
"I believe this seasons crop of Ameri-
can cotton to 40 13, ,500,0O0 bales or over.
The census returns az far as received
show that about 12,000.0O0 bales were
ginnel up TO December l3 To this must
be added the cotton picked and unpicked,
but not ginned, up to that date.
Last season there were ginncd after
December 18th, ,324, ,SS5 bales, and the
season before last, ,T25, ,4i2 bales. be-
lieve that much moro remains to be
giuned this year than in either of tho two
previous seasons, hence my estimate of
13.500,00o bales or more.
"The theory that this amount will not
be marketed is of no Importance. Cot
ton is grown to be sold, and it will not
be destroyed. 1t is tho unsod cotton in
first hands yet to find market which
will carry prices downward
"On the 18th of December the indi-
Gated quantity ginned was 12,0OO,OOO
bales, and there were in sight 6,44, ,332
bales. There were ginned, but not in
sight, therefore, 5, l65, ,68S, to which must
be added. still to be ginned, at least,
100000, which loaves n total of $685.
66S bales in the farmers hands, invisible
and unsold, on December 18th
''Such Situation 10 1yithnnt pra
cedent in the trade. 1t cannot but result
in prolonged and acute depression to
probably the lowest prices ever reached.
"rhe worlds spinning trade, impover-
ished by last years high prices and the
previous years corner, is without the
resources or credit requisite for the ac-
cumulation of large surplus stocks Even
were 1T otherwise, it is not to be expected
that manufacturers will be SO lacking in
cormercial sagacity as to buy largely at
prices that are not as yet even moderate
when considered in relation to conditions
present and prospective.
"A surplus of approximately 100000
bales at the end of the season has gene
rally resulted in T-cent cotton at some
time during the spring or summer; a
surplus of over 2, 100000 bales has only
once existed, and the price fell to s 0/l6
and did not advance above ST cents for
nearly year. In my opinion the sur
mated consumption for this season will
be not less than 2, soc, 900 bales. 1t makes
no difference whether it is visible or not
it will bo on hand and must be sold. Its
selling will probably carry cotton to
prices as low as the prospective situation
is unprecedented. On the facts any other
conclusion is illogical"
Mr.. Price is, of course one of the lead
ing clears of the cotton market, be-
lieves there is sufficient cotton in the
farmers hands to ''rosult in prolonged
depression to probably the lowest prices
ever reached and his lahors are to that
end. What the farmers of the South
should do is to prove Mr.. Prices theory
incorrect by holding to every bale of cot
ton until the price rises as a natural re-
suit of restricted market, and then
market the crop SO gradually as not to
produce surplus in the hands of the
consumers.
Note Mr.. Prices statement: 'It is the
unsold cotton in first hands that will
carry prices downward" That means
that what has already gone into the
hands OF the consumers (the mills) and
the spectators has ceased to be n factor
so far as the price of tho unmarkoted
crop is concerned. This is possibly cor
rect, and, as we see it, leaves The matter
of price for the staple in the hands of
the farmer entirely under his control
Take, for instance, Mr.. Prices own
''bear" figures:
Bales ginned to December Is ~, 600, 600
There had been marketed .. 6,8id,332
&inned, but not in sight. ..... 5,155, ,66S
sui to be ginned ed............. 100000
Leaving in the farmers hands G,655, ,G69
Mr.. Price estimates that there is sur
plus this year of 2,5O0,000 bales, yet he
admits that there are still in the hands of
the producer 6,655,6 bales of cotton,
and that this "uusold cotton in first
hands will carry the price downward"
why should it do so? According to
Chese figures, the consumers will yet
need 4, ,155, SOS bales with which to operate
the cotton manufactures of the world.
This cotton is in the hands of tho pro
ducer, as is also the estimated surplus of
2.5O0. 600 bales, and if the producers vii,
stand as one man and refuse to sell, the
price will ultimately rise to a reasonable
scale
Mr.. Price makes this statement emi-
uentiy worthy of note: Cotton is made
so be sold, and it will not be destroyed"
The proposition to burn 900, 900 or more
bales is the very height of folly, and
cTonld, if carried out, tend to even lower
~ Al.