New-York tribune., 1905-03-06


ereas forms over the continent of Asia. Should
the westernmost end cover Northern Europe
some of the storms that cross the ocean from
America would be detected toward the Nedl-
terranean, and the progress of others would De
checked In such way to react on the United
States; whereas, If the permanent high pressure
covered only the southern part of Europe the
Atlantic storms would travel toward Scotland
and Scandinavia. Again it seems probable
that slight displacement of the high pressure
area over the Indian Ocean might simulta-
neously cause abnormal rains over the upper
Nile and drouih in Australia.
Partly because ii may afford a prem0nition OF
such variations from the average distribution
of air over the earth but for other reasons also,
there is an increasing demand for study OF
the sun. Marked fluctuations in the amount of
heat thrown off by the body have been noticed,
and It is in the highest degree essential that
any connection which may exist between them
and meteorological eccenTicties shall be de-
tected. Professor Garriott finds much testi-
mony TO Justify belief that sunspots are in
some sense SymptOInatic of disturbances in ter
restrial conditions; and, while the case is not
yet [. mplete enough to warrant forecasting on
that basis, the wisdom of further inquiry by
competent experts is apparent.
The government has given careful considera-
ton to d number Of suggestions and theories
which have been supposed to have bearing
OH the weather of the United States One was
the supp stion that the Japan current dOml-
mated the rainfall Of California, and that indi-
cations of drouth or precipitation might be OBJ
tanned by watching the changes in the strength
and course of the current along the Aleutian
Islands. For this hypothesis the Weather Bu-
reau has not been able to find rational founda-
ton. The time hOnOred notion that the moon
is potent agent was also considered, and Pro-
feSsor Garriott presents a fine array Of quota
'ti0ns from modern authorities regarding it. A
rigid COMPARISON of lunar phases with weather
changes leads Buchan and other prominent
meteorolOgists to declare that the moon has no
dscernible influence at all, while Won Bebber
comedies that there may possibly be trifing
modification of air pressure, but not one which
can be utilized practically. Again, there Is
recogniZa BILE tendency toward a six or seven
day period Sometimes rain will fall on the
same day of the week for several successive
weeks. Here is a fact which has been turned
to account by one group of amateur weather
prophets who contribute TO the newspapers,
though they sometimes mask their plan under
a pretence of faith i'll lunar control According
to Professor Garriott. however the periodicity
is not regular and continuous enough to be of
value to official forecasters
The Weather Bureau has given much atten-
ton to the so-called planetary meteoro9gy.
and finds 1t to be sadly vulnerable One Of its
devotees makes everything hinge on the move
ments of Vulcan, a body to which he assigns
an orbit inside that of Mercury. but whose ex-
stence no astronomer has been able to demon
strate Another prophet who talks learnedly
about the crises which attend the equinoxes
Of the planets proves to be unable TO compute
accurately the time when such astronomical
phenomena occur Moreover, there seems to
be no reason to believe that even If the dates
were properly calculated anything unusual
would be observed on them. After all, the real
test of this sort of prediction is the extent to
which veriication is possible Those who In
dulge IN it are usually so vague in their warn
ings that it is impossible to tell In advance
where the trouble of which they give notice is
to be expected Hence. 1t is hard to discover
whether they are right or wrong A man who
has won some notOriety in the West for such
work was persuaded last year to accept the
Goth meridian of longitude as representing the
locality for which his forecasts were meant.
1t then proved that his guesses concerning the
temperature were incorrect more frequently
than they were correct. Professor Willis L.
Moore. the present head of the Weather Bu-
reau. In an Introduction to Professor Garriotts
pamphlet, says Of these irresponsible utter
ances: They may properly be classed with
"quack medicine. They are both harmful in
"the extreme"