New-York tribune., 1905-08-17
A DECREASE In BABIES.
Census Shoes Declining Proportion
of Children TO adults.
rrFom THE TRIBUNE punr.u.l

Census Bureau to-day. This bulletin presents al
analysis by Professor Walter #. Wilcox. Of
Cornell University, Of data obtained in the
twelfth census. but 81 makes no claim 20 tabu-
.sting the exact birth rate OF the country
The author says at the outset that mo census
furnish all the information needed TO COM
pute the birth rate. number Of births IN
year 10 each thousand persons. nor has TINS
information been obtained for the United states
or any considerable part OF il. by any other
agency"
But apar1 from the inherent difficulties OF de-
ternining the birth rate from census figures
Professor WILCOX regards the proportion of
children as being IN some respects a better neld
Of study since it shows not merely the number
OF children who are born, but the number who
are reared THE proportion OF children he
Saws lis an approximately accurate and a Sig
nincant clew 10 the amount OF new blood that
is being brought into the country by natures
processes OF reproduction and growth"
The method used I'm the report is a compsri-
.or by periods by States and geographic di-
visions snd by races. Of the proportion the
number OF children bears 70 the total popula-
ton, or 70 the number OF women Of child-bear-
ing age. The number OF children under i've
years OF age and the number Of women fifteen
20 .orry-nine years OF age are given by the
census OF 1850 and all subsequent censuses
q. far back as the census Of 1890. The author
ssys IL is possible also 70 estimate the number
az children under ten year. OF age for the earlier
oensuses.
DECREASE IN CHILDREN.
some of the conclusions reached by Professor
WILCOX may be summarized as follows;
Az the beginning OF the nineteenth century the
children under ten years OF age constituted one
lass fhan r,r,e- OllFfh n q
total population. The decrease in this proper
tion began as early as the decade 1910 TO 1870
and continued uninterruptedly. though at vary
ing rates. IN each successive decade This OF 1t
self however in the opinion Of the author, is not
enough 20 prove a declining birth rate. as the
decrease IN the proportion Of children in the
total population may indicate merely an increase
in the average duration of life and the conse-
souent survival OF a larger number OF adults
But by taking the proportion Of children TO
women Of child bearing age. Professor Wilcox
,fnds a more satisfactory index Of the movement
81 the birth rate Between 1850 and 1860. the
earliest decade for which figures can he oh
tsined this proportion increased But since 1860
, st has decreased without interruption The de-
crease has been unequal from decade TO decade
1 hut IL twenty-yeRr periods considered it has
hesn most regular. In 1860 the number 81
children under Eve years of age 10 1000 women
fifteen 20 forty-nine years OF age was 634: in
1900 Il was only 474. One is thus led TO the
conclusion that there has been persistent de-
cline in the birth rate since 1860.
CAUSES OF DECLINE.
No attempt IS made by the author OF the
bulletin 20 determine the probable OF this
decline. An extended argument by General
Francis A. Walker is given. suggesting that IT
- -.
resultant shock TO the population instinct Of the
natives. There is also presented a discussion at
length by DIR. John s Billings pointing out what
ne considers tie reasons for the decline II the
decline were due in large part 10 the influx Of
Immigrants says Professor Wilcox. should
expect It 10 be greatest in those sections OF the
country TO which most OF the immigrants have
gone or greater in the North and West than in
The South. 1t is found. in fact that I'm the North
and West there has been more or less regular
decline, while In the South the change has been
less regular and the decline less marked. In
1850 the proportion Of children TO 1000 women
IAN the North and West was fve-sxths OF what
it was in the South; in 1900 it was less than
sthree-fourths.
Extended tables are given. presenting the fig
grres for each division and State and the changes
from decade 20 decade In 1900 the smallest
proportion OF children in the District Of
Columbia. where the number OF children under
i've wears was hardly more than one-fourth the
humber of women OF chld-bearing age. But
from the sociological standpoint the District Of
.Columbia should be eIassed with cities rather
!ihsn with States and Territories. The next
SMALLEST proportion was that for Massachusetts,
aw-here il was slightly more than one-third. The
largest proportion was in North Dakota and
tthe Indian Territory, in each OF which it was
iHo-thrds
{, MORE CHILDREN IN NORTH
4 In the general decrease between 1890 and 1900
snOt single State Of the North Atlantic Division
grook part. In seven other States also. there was
no decrease. In only six States Maryland Mich
hgsn Ohio Illinois. Kentucky and Indiana, did
the proportion decrease an each Of the Eve de-
.csoes and in only Delaware the District of Co
fumbis Wisconsin Minnesota Iowa. Oregon and
,olors DO did n follow the tendency for the coun-
fry ss a whole-thst is, increase from 1850 10
1880 ana decrease in the four succeeding dec
.sdes The change in The whole country. there
fore. was not typical Of what was true Of most
of its parts. but rather the resultant OF opposite
changes
There was an unusual decrease IN the propor
-ion of children between 1860 and 1870 which
must be attributed 20 the direct and indirect re-
suits Of the Civil War The increase in the
South between 1870 and 1880 is held TO be due
probably both 10 the great number of omissions
in the census OF 1870 and the return OF settled
conditions after the war and reconstruction
DECREASE AMONG WHITES
The decrease in the proportion Of white chill
dnen under ten 20 the total white population he
gan early the decade 1910 TO 1870 and
has continued without interruption. but with