The Manning times. [volume] (Manning, Clarendon County, S.C.) 1884-current, 1905-06-21

Ills own signature. HOHeNeI. =.
that does not detract in the least
from the force Of the argument.
The situation presented to us
by the spinners of the world is
something entirely new to the
cotton trade and gives US prob
lens to solve, facts to consider
and risks to guard against sure.
Never in the history Of the cot
ton trade has there been such
prosperity and such demand for
goods. In former seasons we
have known the mills Of some
countries to be sold ahead for
six months while those in some
other country would not be do
ing so well. But here we have
them all sold ahead to an aver
age date OF - months, and at
such an enormous rate Of con-
sumption that it requires 1,000,-
900 bales a month to keep them
running. And the sales have
been made at most profitable
figures. much above the present
price Of cotton. Still there is
no let up to the demand for
goods, and they are steadily ad-
vancing and the mills are still
selling ahead.
I estimate that since the be-
ginning of this season the spin
ners have sold goods requiring
20,000,0OO bales OF cotton, and
they cannot stop selling alto
gether. So far they have had in
old stocks and takings about H.,
900, 900 bales and are short about
9, 900, 900 bales, and are still sell
ing at higher prices. A part of
this short interest is carried by
cotton dealers who have sold
ahead to the mills, and part of
it is carried by the spectators
who have sold the future hedges
that have been bought by the
spot dealers and spinners, but
the short interest is there just
the same.
A consumption Of 1000, 900
bales a month and a short inter
est in spot cotton of 5000, 900
bales! Who in the cotton trade
has ever heard of such things as
these? Who has ever had any
experience that would be of
value in dealing with such stu
pendous situations: What gyra-
tions we may have, and who
would know what to do under
critical or unexpected develop
ments? Speculations carried up
to Sc q pound last season, but
trade was poor and the mills
were moi committed ahead to
any great extent. Where would
it ever stop this year if this
monstrous short interest IN
spots should become alarmed?
And what would happen to the
large short interest in futures?
There would be fluctuations and
dangers that would try mems
souls and finances as they have
never been tried before IN the
cotton trade. On the advance we
would hear of no mills shutting
down, unless they should have
to default their contracts. We
would hear Of no cotton being
shipped back here from eastern
mills and Liverpool for delivery.
We would hear nothing of the
demand for spots being checked
by the advance in the market:
We had all of these to contend
within the big bull movement
of the last two seasons. No,
nothing of the kind this time,
for the spinners have got to
have ar average of 100000
bales month of American cot
ton coming to them for the next
12 months, for they have sold
the goods. And if they cannot
get the cotton that fast they are
going to buy futures for protec-
ton.
I warn you that cotton values
are resting upon a magazine like
gunpowder. If all things come
phenomenally favorable for the
growing crop we may range
around these prices for some
time. With a crop of 12,ooo,ooo
next season cotton might sell
temporarily as low as 7 1-2 cents
some time next fall. But with a
crop of much less than 1l,ooo,-
900 some one wiser than I would
have to guess how high it would
90 and how fast. Should a crop
disaster set fire to this magazine
cotton could advance to Zoe as
easily as it could to 1oc.-NeW
York Commercial.
On the special occasion Of my recent
attendance as Commissioner to the Gen
eral Assembly of the Presbyterian