Waterbury evening Democrat., 1905-06-13
WEATHER fORECAsTINC
Fallacies of Long Range System
 Denounced by Experts.
EFFORTS TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM

EFFOkTS TO SOLVE THE PkOBLEM Value of Foreknowing the Seasons
 So Important and So Pressing That
 the Weather Bureaus Chief Is
 Building and Equipping Large
 Observatory For the Study of In-
 tricnte Atmosphericnl Problems.
 The infinite desirability of foreknow- ing the seasons for the benefit of hus- bandmen is at once the opportunity of charlatans and the justification of na- tional weather services. It avails lit tie to decry the methods of impostors or to brand them as fakirs. The court of final resort must always be com parison of results, and such compari- son every one can now make for him. self. Weather maps showing the actual conditions on every day are now pub lished by practically every civilized nation and are accessible to all, and all that is needed to cure the most i'm plicit belief in almanac predictions is an honest comparison of these predic- tions for single season with the actual occurrences as shown by these maps. Conspicuous instances of failure, such as those of the artificial rain makers, who a decade ago were given the full est opportunity to test and exploit their theories, or the colorless results of the extensive campaign of bombardment as a protection against hail, which has long been conducted in southern Flu rope, do not convince the credulous.
 Government meteorologists are not alone in the denunciation of the fal- lacies, absurdities and pernicious ef- forts of so called long range forecasts Professor Young, probably the fore most American astronomer, speaking of lunar influences, points out that the frequency of the moons changes is so great that 1t is always easy to find in- stances by which to verify belief that changes of the moon control conditions on the earth. A change of the moon necessarily occurs about once week. All changes of the weather must there fore, occur within three and three fourths days of change of the moon, and one-half of all changes ought to oc- cur within forty-six hours of change in the moon even if there were no causal connection whatever. Now, it requires only very slight predisposi- tion in favor of belief in the effective ness of the moons changes to make one forget a few of the changes that occur too far from the proper time.
 Unquestionably there is general de- sire for an extension of the range of forecasts to cover the near future and, if possible, the coming season.
 Some of the ablest scientists of the United States and Europe have devoted much time and labor to the study of this problem. They have consulted weather records of all countries, talk ing note of the dates of heavy storms and making comparison with the posi- ton of the moon and planets to deter mine if there is any discoyerable con. nectfon between the movement Of thoser minor bodies and the sweep of storm eddies in the earth's atmosphere. The consensus of opinion has been that there Is no foundation of fact or philos- ophy for that system of long range fore casts.
 Students In the primary class in meteorology learn that the ever chang ing phenomena of the weather are all referable to the action of the sun up- on the earth and its atmosphere, va DOTS and gases; that the constantly radiated energy of the sun supports heat, light and electric force In the solar system.
 The libraries of the United States weather bureau contain the substance and much of the detail of all that is known of weather wisdom, ancient and modern, and the scientists of this bu- reau certainly are familiar with the es- sence of this knowledge. Those who are in position to know are well aware that every possible effort is be- ing made to extend our knowledge of the laws that control weather condi- tions and meanwhile to give to those who are vitally concerned the most trustworthy information obtainable It is matter of common experience that the notable success of some commer- cial article of merit is sure to food the market with spurious goods of the same class. which interruptions ven dors spread before the indiscriminat- ing public. The rapid strides of the United States weather bureau in re- cent years toward popular favor through the widespread dissemination of the forecasts-a service made pos sible largely hy the phenomenal spread of the telephone and the development of the rural delivery service-have ap- parently given a new impetus to un- scientific. not to say interruptions. fore casts. based upon some theory of cy- cles or of planetary control.
 The problem of seasonal forecasts is receiving at the hands of the ablest and most psinstaking students of both continents a comprehensive considera- ton that is certain to he fruitful and far reaching in it's ultimate results.
 So important and so pressing is the work and 30 promising is the field that the chief of the weather bureau is building and equipping large observ- atory. whsrein the best talent available will soon be employed to study the in Yr;cata and nrofouud prohInrps of the