The watchman and southron. [volume] (Sumter, S.C.) 1881-1930, 1905-06-21
7HIeHEs COTTON PRICES LIKELY.
Is c. CoWAN MAKES EAHAUS-
S4IyE ANALYSIS OF THE MAR
KET SITUATION.
He Estimates that, Considering Un-
precedented Demand and Present
Crop Condition, the Chance for
a Famine in the Staple Are
Great.

Great.
G. C. cowan, whose opinions on the
market are always Of the greatest in
terest to the trade, will today send out
letter that suggests some new IDEAS
perhaps, and is very interesting ex-
nression Of opinion, to say the least
Foiiowing is the letter in full:
Now that the authorities have CIV
en- us the acreage and condition of the
new eren. ana the sease.n IS sufficient
IL advanced to give us some clue to
the general prospects, and crop estl-
nnates By premature gseSsers range
from JC,000,0 900 to 12.001,0oo bales,
& slers US take a look at the situation and
see If We can divine wha' develop
rnents tue future may hold in store.
And "A all of our reasoning and cal
cn1afing we must bear in mind that
the results produced by st ,tistics are
dependent almost entirely upon tn.
existing conditions in trade and the
existing prices; that a crop OF 1S,ooo,-
900 is worth higher prices to a trade
condition requiring 13,50o,uS0 than
crop Of 1o,oeo,a5o is worth to trade
condition not requiring 100000;
that surplus of 100000 is less of
weight on a prosperous market than
a surplus Of 100000 is on market
suffering from poor trade; that when
cotton is depressed below its legiti-
mate value it can advance in the face
of bearish statistics, and that when it
is boosted above its legitimate value
it can decline in the face OF bullisn
statistics.
We recall how in the fall of 1899
cotton advanced considerably from
the previous low point notwithstand-
ing the excessive stocks Of cotton and
goods which accumulate in conse-
ouence of the two bumper crops Of
over 100000 each, because cotton
had been depressed below its value
and trade was on the mend. We saw
cotton decline from previous high lev
els in the falls Of 1903 and 1904 with
famine supplies Of cotton and goods,
partly because cotton had been forced
above its legitimate value, but mainly
because trade was exceptionally poor.
Now then, the census report tells
us that there have been 13,6O0,000
bales ginned in the South this season.
Whereas some of that was marketed
In August last, we will assume that an
equal amount Of the new crop will
come in sight this August, and we will
deal with yield for the fiscal year of
13,600,000 bales, less 100000 bales
which will be lost to the trade on ac-
count Of country damage, etc. Add
ing the visible supply on Sept. l, last,
Of 100000 bales, We will assume that
the total supply for the season is in
round figures 100000 bales. Of
the 13,500,000 of this crop available
we have marketed 12,420,000 bales,
leaving apparently in the planters
hands 100000 bales, added to the
present visible supply Of American Of
2,44O,OOO bales, leaves US 3,52O,OOO
bales to draw from for the remaining
l2 weeks Of this season.
Formerly, it was an element of
weakness for a part Of the surplus to
be carried over by the planters. But
since the South has shown its flnan-
cial ability to carry 100000 or 5000
900 bales Of cotton without any signs
of distress, it does not matter much
in what proportion the surplus at the
end of this season may be held by the
planters, the spinners, or in the visi-
BILE supply. The merits of the situa-
ton will be about the same. But,
without attempting to approximately
predict in what proportion the surplus
will! be divided between the three, let
us assume a division which would
seem a natural result. If the move
ment averages $4,000 bales per week
for the balance Of the se:ason the
planters Will be rid of all Of their cot
ton excepting 100000 bales. This
mach is usually carried over by them