Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1905-05-22
BULLS AND BEARS

Special Dispatch to The Star.
NEW YORK May 22.-It is said In the
trade that very likely within the next few
weeks many iron furnaces will be blown
out for repairs. The effect of this viii be
to allow what there is in the way OF
lessened consumption to overtake what
ever there has been in the way of over
production; but the blowing out of many
furnaces would seem to be an absolute
necessity in any event Iron manufacturers
have been operating from % to 9S per cent
of their plants for months, and 1t is recog-
nized in the trade that to run at more
than 90 per cent of their capacity Is to
pass the danger point and incur the risk
of being crippled at the height OF a busy
season later on.
wholly confined to Wall street-regarding
the state and prospects of the iron and
steel trade, broker with long memory
and a level head says:
Il have never known a time when the
steel trade was going down hill to the pau
per stage when the fact was appreciated,
or even dimly appreciated, in Wall street
until months after the trade decline had
set in. Neither have l known time when
Wall street discovered until long after the
Improvement was well under way that the
J trade was becoming principal again Nor
are the So-called expert commutatorS any
wiser. Last year one of the leading au-
thorties on the trade was bearish for the
months in which steel preferred was ris-
ing from low In the Sos to well up In the
sos. 1 distrust very much this profound
and general knowledge which all wan
street possesses now concerning business
or which in the past it has shown that IL
knew so little"
Robert Goodbody & Co. say in their week
ly review of the market:
Our view of the general position is
49,, T., nf II
lative feeling induced by the fact that
gold is falling in value, and hence that
equities are rising and must rise. Specu-
lators see this process going on ana ieel
the impulse, though they do not realize
the cause hence we have a market which
gets over bought at intervals and has
large and feverish declines. These re-
ports accentuated by the fact that many
Investors, Judging the future by the past.
and not realizing the process by which
equities are rising at the expense OF fixed
incomes, talk about waiting until they
get the stocks at what used to De low
prices If we are right they will not get
them but there may be more things than
are dreamed of in our philosophy; but
equally, If we are right. the very specu,
lation induced by the fall in gold will
make big fluctuations and very feverish
markets at frequent intervals. but the
cause that justifies the speculation Will
be there all the time
A lot of untoward happenings would
seem to have been discounted by the
present range of prices in the stock mar
ket, especially when this Is considered In
amount of stocks that commission houses
are carrying. The average price of thirty
nine active railroad and industrial shares
was "a 40 at the low point in the Decem-
Der break. From this level these stocks
advanced 1917 to an average high price
of 1896 in March last. From the high
level of the year there was a decline or
14S8 to the average low point on the
break last week. Practically speaking all
the markets advance after the December
decline has been lost.
whether or not Lawson has been sell
ing stocks hfmself-and he AYERS that ne
has not-there can be no question that
the bear party that is and has been at
lacking prices with stock both long and
short welcomes the assistance of the fe-
rocious diatribes which come from Bos-
ton Anonymous literature, limiting or
even asserting trouble here and there In
the financial community. and predicting
dire events, has usually been scattered
broadcast in bear campaigns. but here Is
a man saying over his own name worse
| things than the most rabid campafgner
against values ever dared put into print,
even anonymously.