The Topeka state journal. [volume] (Topeka, Kansas) 1892-1980, 1905-04-10

n11Slea them last year ana, IN my OPINION,
the long side of the market viii again be
repeated this year.
The same idea about exports is made
the basis OF figuring. I believe to follow
such fa1laclOus arguments is to go aStray-
The talk is that only a price justified by
what foreigners viii pay for wheat for
export is a safe one to pay in taking the
long side. + see no reason to suppose the
Liverpool price for wheat Will have much
more to do with our market this year
than it did last, and last year it had no
influence, save to lose money for all who
listened 10 such advice unsupported, as II
was by anything approaching a fact The
export mania must be discarded, or you
are uaDl5 10 make but little money in the
wheat market. It is not a sober idea.
L think it is safe to conclude that We
shah never be restored to an export basis,
or dragged down to it would be more cor
rect unless conditions in Europe are such
as 10 force foreigners to pay d high price,
nary circumstances. Take the price OF
farm lands in the United States, the use
70 which they can be put for other crops
lnaI pay PETER ana are now Surer Tor the
producer, and it seems to me a more sane
idea to go to figuring upon the importa-
ton than the expectation of wheat When
corn, oats, potatoes and even hay OFFER
better inducements, what farmer will be
making an effort to raise wheat to com
pete with serfs coolies, ryots and poems
In new countries on virgin soils? This is
not to say that the cultivation of wheat
viii to any great extent stop, but it re-
quires only abandonment of a moderate
percentage of area in unfavorable districts
10 make permanent the change that has
There is much to assist and accelerate
our movement IN this direction. The pros
perity of our farmers since they came out
or the serYlle condition that the export of
ra " material forces every nation into, is
a demonstration that can not be argued
down, and IN addition to this the tenden-
cy of foreign nations to increase the duty
upon imported wheat makes cultivation
must restrict production. As civilization
progresses, revolutions do not go back
ward. ANY one not willingly blind can
see the revolution that is going on in this
country in the grain trade. The change
IS not temporary, 1t is not the accident of
a season, though that advanced it rapidly:
II IS not a WhiTn nor mere diSsatisfac-
ton; it is purely mercantile and CONNER
cial progress. It is something for US to
accept and not to wear ourselves out kick
ing against The wonder is not the sud
denness or Taptdity of our change agricul-
9 IuraiIy' put tnat It has been SO long de-
layea we may learn a good deal by in
vestiga ting other industries.
If you think we have travelled too fast
agrlcuituraliy, and that we must settle
back again, examine the railroad industry
that IS almost entirely dependent upon
agriculture for the strides it has made.
Do you think the stocks of the numerous
railroads that eight years ago were sell
ing in the units. and are now far above
par and paying dividends on increased
caPltaHza1on! are gong back TO the start
ing point again? While many of them may
and ought to seriously decline, what would
you call the man that tells you Atchison,
Missouri Pacific. Union Pacific, St. Paul,
Reading, Burlington and a dozen others
viii be again where you have seen them
Oh, no; your mismanaged railroads will
never go back that way, but the agricuI-
tural industry, all the time adopting bet
ter, safer and surer measures. viii be
Try to look and see something a little
behind the wheat pit; then you will be at
least on the right track to make some
money. You ride on the twentieth cen
ttury limited trains at about twice the old
fare, and you are enthusiastic about our
wonderful progress; but because wheat is
up to a price that pays the farmer only
fair wages for its production, why do you
chatter like monkey about famine prices
for flour?
I can see greater opportunities on the
long side than we had a year ago at this
time; surer at all events. We have greater
needs than then, and over 100000 bush
els of wheat less to supply them. Our
farmers have learned that a protective
tariff duty protects; learned 1t is safe to
keep a little wheat in the bins rather than
sacrifice it at an export price should there
be a crop somewhat beyond the country s
bare necessities; learned that therelI be
a few less acres to plow for the next crop,
in hand for less work
1t is time to be ready now for every op-
portunity to buy the deferred futures on
any little decline and to buy more if the
price goes lower. Cash wheat is going to
sell a good deal higher, in my opinion, be-
fore the new crop comes IN, and as cash
wheat last year moved from the old to the
new crop with no decline in price, lust so
it promises to do this year It is a
reasonable, logical, sensible conclusion
Think of the pages of dead matter YOU
have been afflicted with for the last year
about the crop Of India, the CT op of Au-
stralia, the crop of Argentina, the price in
Liverpool the worlds shipments, the
stocks in Odessa and the weather in
France; how it has frightened you; how
it has fooled you; how it kept you from
buying at soc; how it kept you from buy
ing at soc; how it kept you from buying
at $1.00; how it kept you from buying at
S1.1O and there has never been a day in
ali that time that one of these scraps Of
bear feed had any more to do with the
price of wheat in this country than the
rice crop of japan had to do with it.