The daily morning journal and courier., 1905-06-29
THE FUTURE OF MANcHURIA.


 The Japanese keep their secrets well, and among the secrets they keep are. the terms upon which they will insist when Russia, is sufficiently worn out, or sufficiently afraid of revolution, to offer peace. Beyond admitting that they intend to keep Port Arthur, which has cost so much blood, and that they will claim the protectorate of Korea, as an economic necessity, they say as little as possible, only instructing their spokesmen to declare that, although Japan must be made safe for the fu- ture, their demand will be found, con sidering their losses, both in men and treasure, to be "very moderate" Re fiecting on these admissions and other circumstances, Western journalists, always little impatient of secrecy, have formulated two sets of terms, which, in the absence of alternatives, the public has everywhere accepted as the terms that Russia, if she fights on. will be rejecting. In one, Japan asks only for Port Arthur, with it's im- mediate Hinterland, an exclusive right to control Korea, and indemnity; in the other. she demands in addition the island of Saghalien, and some kind of 'neutralization" for the port of Vladivostok. In both the great pro- vince of Manchuria, in which the war has been fought, is ito be handed back to China" Both these sets of terms are pronounced very moderate, and the Czar is often adjured, on the strength of them, to terminate an un-Christian war, in which blood is expended in tor rents merely to keep Russia and the Ron1anoff dynasty from suffering humiliation. ..s.
 It does not seem to strike any one that Japan, unless she is finally beaten, must ask little more than either of these two sets of terms for her own security. Russia, while governed by the Ronanoffs, never, will abandon, never indeed can abandon, her secular object, which is to reach open water at every point where the freedom of the seas is, or seems to be, essential to her permanent prosperity. One of those points is the Pacific, and the effect of handing back Manchuria to China would be that Japan would never be safe. The Chinese are totally incapable of turning the immense province, half as large again as France, into a strong division of their empire. The most they can do is partially to refill it with in dustrious villagers, who, as long as there is peace, will work twelve hours a day for seven days week, submitting the while to the anarchy tempered by the desire for extortion," which is the normal method of government through out the empire China vii not of. her. self create great defensive army, be- cause if she did the commander of that army would be stronger than the throne: and without a great army Manehuria. as we have all seen can not be defended, As soon therefore, as the war has been a little forgotten, the Russian statesmen would begin organizing new railways, new canton- ments, new centers of supply, all in- tended for a fresh invasion of Man. churia. with the object of once more forcing their way to the Pacific. There would be no adequate resisting force within Manchuria itself. and probably none in china. where the mandarins before the present war displayed neith- CT the competence nor the energy to drive back the Russian advance. The only security would be the Japanese conviction that menace to Manchuria, is a menace to Nippon; and the Island Empire would therefore be again com- pelled to fight Russia in circumstances which might be- and probably would be
 flor Russia would not be caught nap ping a second time-lnuch less favor able. The Japanese statesmen see this clearly and, indeed, admit they see it, for it is the foundation of their constant remark that '.the peace must not be in the nature of a truce;" and there is no reason that they have considered means for, preventing what, in their eyes, would be a failure. We do not know their precise plan for meeting the danger, but their publicists are already limiting at means which would almost certainly succeed. These are to add to the terms so frequently discussed a clause providing that when Manchuria was handed back to China, Japan should retain, or China should concede . to her. rights of administration in pro- Vince, similar to those which we possess in Egypt. Surplus revenue to a, certain amount would be paid to Pekin; but agents of the Mikado would garrison the Actresses and control the railways of Manchuria would administer the taxation, would supervise the law court and would see that the peasantry, while law-abiding, should be let alone Man churia. in fact, would be as well governed as Japan, while any attack either by Russia or China upon the ad- nninistration would be a declaration of war upon the Island Empire. It is not likely that China would object to the arrangement, for she needs the pro- lection of Japan against Russia, and, indeed against the world, which within a very short time was nearly ready to accept a scheme of partition; her court would be delighted at the prospect of a secure revenue, which would arrive in Pekin without "squeezes for the benefit of great mandarins. ''-London Spectator. . ....-....- ..4.