The Yakima herald. [volume] (North Yakima, W.T. [Wash.]) 1889-1914, 1905-07-19
WEDNESDAY. JULY 10, 1905.
PRoBAbEE CONDITIONS FOR
PRESENT YEAR DISCUSSED
Views Of NJ. H. burst of California
ON Probable Prices for Hops
This Year.

M. H. burst, well-known hop
man Of California, has written the
following letter to the Sacramento
Union:
I doubt If there is hop grower or
hop dealer in the whole United
States. perhaps in the world, who is
not wondering what the next sixty
days will bring about.
During the last two weeks the bear
prognOsticators of lower prices have
had their innings. They have sue
ceeded in forcing prices down so that
II anybody wished to sell he could
get no price offered. Several thou
sand bales have been sold in Oregon
and Washington at 10 to Fl cents.
am happy to say that I am in
formed that so far none of the grow
ers who have pledged themselves not
to sell before Aug. under 30 cents
per pound have broken their faith.
We are holding, and most of us will
continue to remain unscared until
time has proved just what the 1905
crop will come down at.
The worst bump the market had
was when Messrs. Isaac Pincus and
Son "let go" Of their holdings, some
500 bales Washingtons. These peo-
pie were the ringleaders in getting
up the holding pool in Washington.
In Portland, on the 25th Of april, at
the meeting Of the how owners, a
member of the firm pledged himself
unreservedly in my hearing not to
sell before the LIST of August for less
than 80 cents. But this man did not
make good" Just cite this in
stance to prove that such actions by
some dealers justify hop growers in
being suspicious of their advice.
Just now many dealers are pre-
dieting big crops and low prices.
Some say very low prices, even as
low as 10 cents per pound.
Such prediction is ridiculous. II
the United States grows 100000
bales, England 100000 cwts., and
the continent full crop, we may see
hops selling at IA to Is cents-not
less. The chances that these things
will all happen are about as one to
nifty. The outlook at this time Is
reported as favorable for England
But that means very little.
No reasonably accurate forecast
can be made Of the English and Con-
tinental crop before the LIST Of
August. and no absolutely sure fore
cast can be made until the middle of
September.
The folly of dealers trying to
scare growers Dy predictions in July
of big crops is shown by last years
experience.
The Oregonian of July Z, 1904,
had the following In it's commercial
columns:
"The New York crop never looked
better England's yield is estimated
at $4,000 cwt.. an increase of 1907
900 American bales over last year
crops on the continent are fine. All
this does not promise for high prices
the coming season. Instead of 25-
cent market, dealers look for prices
somewhere between 12k and IS
cents"
How did it turn out? The New
York crop was the largest in years.
but England produced only $4,000
cwt., or less than As per cent of the
crop predicted.
From Is cents in early July, hops
rose in price; II and 10 cents was
offered on the 18th of July, 20 cents
on the 21st of July. gradually in
creasing until the 18th of August,
when 25 cents was paid on contracts
in Oregon.
This price continued to advance up
to the middle of October, when 81 "
cents was paid. Up to the middle
of July the Oregon crop suffered
from lack Of rainfall, but 1t was alb
solutely free of vermin. On the
14th of July steady rain began fall
ing and brought the crop up from
10000 to 10000 bales. During the
last week in July bad crop advices
began coming from England and con-
tinued SO Until the crop was har-
vested. At the same time, even up
to the last, there we're plenty of
dealers here and in England who pre-
dicted over 100000 cwt. for Eng
land.
These facts go to show how futile
it is for anyone. particularly deal
er who wants prices to go low SO he