River Falls journal. [volume] (River Falls, Pierce County, Wis.) 1872-2019, 1905-02-02
LONG RANGE FORECASTS.
T. S. outram Treats the Subject IL
Scientific Manner Showing
up Many Falacies.

W SHOW you now tntN CdIlC
into existence, some of their claims
for public attention, how their work
can easily be found to be totally I'M
reliable, and also that their so-called
forecasts have ben seriously injur-
ious to health and pecuniary vel
fare.
Previous to the establishment of
meteorological services by all the
most advanced nations of the world,
there was 10 selling of forecasts, eN-
cept incidentally in a few almanacs,
but since the distribution of the fore
casts of the weather bureau have
been greatly multiplied so that they
now reach to all parts of the country
in the daily newspapers and in other
ways, these so-called long-range fore
casters have recognized the demand
for a better knowledge of future
weather conditions, and they are at
tempting to supply the demand, but
as is almost always the case with
those who wish to make Il good liv-
ing out of those who are not we'll
enough informed to know the genu-
inc from the spurious, their goods
are not what they represent them to
be.
In order to sell their forecasts to
the public, it is necessary for them
to claim that they are based on
scientific data, for in this age nothing
goes unless it is scientific.
Probably the most taking fallacy
is the one which holds that our
weather conditions are controlled by
planatory action or position. A very
Slight knowledge of astronomy
should be sufficient to show that this
theory is totally unreliable. 1t has
been calculated that when viewed
from the sun the space occupied in
the suns sky by the earth is only one
two-millionth of that great expanse,
consequently the earth cannot posi-
bly, receive more than one two-mil-
lionth part of the energy continually
being radiated by that great lumi-
nary, the source of all the different
forms of energy with which we are
acquainted.
Take the forecasts of any Of these
long-range forecasters and see if you
can find out definitely what the writ
er means. Strip off the superabun-
dance of words and see if you can
find q, forecast for this place for
definite date. The notifications
claimed for these forecasts of the
for a storm of any severity, at any
distance and happening within a few
days of the predicted time is cOnsid-
cred as an abundant verifcation.
On the other hand the forecasts
made by the weather bureau are def
mite; they mean what they say, and
there is time and a quantity limit.
For instance, a forecast of fair to-
night means an absence of rain or
snow between S p. III. and a. IN. to-
morrow; most of the night may be
entirely cloudless, but if hundredth
of an inch of rain or melted snow
falls during the last minute or two
of the period the forecast is Il failure.
A forecast for rain tomorrow means
that at least a hundredth of an inch
of rainwill fall between s a. m. and
8 %. m. tomorrow; if this does not
fall within the period the forecast
is failure, even though there be
deluge a few minutes before s a. IN.
and another one minute after p. IN.
If the forecast reads warmer to-
night it means that a temperature
at least 60 higher than it was this
morning is expected if the prediction
is one made in summer, but ii the
rise is only one of 50 the forecast is
a failure. A forecast for colder to-
morrow in winter means that the
| temperature tomorrow at p. m. is
| expected to be at least 100 colder
than it is tonight. These examples
| will show you with what eXactness
the forecasts made by the weather
bureau are proved. No allowances
are made; the time limit and the
quantity limit are fixed and must be
adhered to for the place where the
forecast applies.
A few instances will show the dam
age done within a very few years: In
1895 a man named Falb predicted
terrible earthquakes and storms
which put the whole of Spanish
America into a hopeless and helpless
state of panic, with u total cessation
of work for weeks.
In 1880 the prediction of an awful
storm in our South Atlantic States
frightened many intelligent people,
and nine-tenths of the less intelligent,
so that the lives and business of
many were entirely altered.
In 1901 the prediction of severe
hurricane on the coast of New Jer-
sew in midsummer brought panic to
thousands at the summer resorts,
cial message from the chief of the
weather bureau stated the utter
falseness of the dangerous rumor.
1t will be readily understood that
in the instances named the health of
probably thousands was seriously at
fected, as it is known that nervous
constitutions do not recover rapidly
from such shocks.
All the sciences that we know to-
day have had to fight their way to
their present standing against the
assaults of the ignorant, the super
stitious and those who were anxious
to use a dangerously imperfect
knowledge of their subject to make
money out of the over credulous.
The methods of the weather bureau
are open to every one; there are no
mysteries. If there is promise Of
improvement along any line that has
not already been Investigated all the
details of the plan are carefully eX-
amined, and if found worthy of con-
sideration the results are published
so that all can apply them.
The weather bureau is striving to
learn everything within the range of
possibility regarding the mechanics
of air movements, of the amount,
rate and effect of the suns radiation
to the earth, the effect of sun spots,
magnetism, etc, etc, and in order
that better opportunity for research
may be offered the first scientists of
the world, the bureau is erecting the
most elaborate and comprehensive