The Birmingham age-herald., 1905-01-01
Not Strictly Comparable.


 The estimates of the amount actually grown are not strictly comparable as they stand with the so-called commercial crops, which represent the amonnts mar keted inasmuch as much commercial crop includes not only from 2ta to per cent of linters and sample cotton. known commercially as the city crop," but also cotton brought forward from preceding years, and so much of the crop of the succeeding year may have been mar keted prior to September 1, while on the other hand deduction has to he made foi cotton of that years growth marketed during the proceeding commercial year. or carried forward to the year following.
 Independent of thes adjournments the departments preliminary estimate of the crop of 1899 made, 1t should be remen1- bered before the entire crop was gath cred, differed only 2,6 per cent. that Of 1902. 29 per cent. and that of 1903 1.1 per cent.
 Only One Wide Discrepancy.
 Onely once in the last i've years, name ly in 1901, was there any @1e discrepancy between the department preliminary es- tmate of the amount grown and the conf- nercial crop. That year the difference was so great per cent. that n special investigation was made by field agents with a view to ascertaining It's cause. and it was found that while the depart ments estimate of the amount grown 5000 bales less than the commercial crop proved to be. the estimate differed only 2920O0 bales, or less than per cent. from the actual crop.
 The reason for the apparent great dis crepancy was that in addition to 172,226 bales of inters and 673i3 bales of sample cotton 'rehaled. the commercial crop of that year included 900 bales grown in preceding years and brought out by the ItA1 10s, ,190 bales of the crop of the following year marketed prior to September 1. 1902. there being on the other hand 115,55o bales of the crop of 1901-02 marketed prior to September 1. 1901. and JH.502 bales of the same crop carried forward to the year 1eO2-03 leaving an actual growth in tte year 1901-aa of 9,96s,47s
 Amount Varies Widely.
 "The amount of cotton held over by planters from year to another varies considerably. as you know does also although this Is a less important fac tor-the amount of cotton marketed be- fore September 1, and consequently in- cluded In the commercial crop of the pre- ceding year But while for this reason there may be considerable difference between the amount grown and the amount marketed in any single year. the totals for d series of five or more years ought not to be greatly at variance. and 1t is in a comparison of five years basis that the accuracy of the depart ment's figures is most strikingly revealed. ''The total amount of cotton marketed in the United States In the five years ending August 3l. 1904. was 5l044,125 bales. while the sum of the preliminary esti- mates of this department, issued annually in December, plus 2k per cent for Iinters and sample cotton (admitted conserva- tive estimate) was 50.279,3 365 bales. a dif- ference of only 764 760 bales for the five years, or 152,952 bales per annum. When 1t is remembered that in not a single year of these five years did the depart ment overestimate the crop. this close correspondence (within 1.5 per cenD be- comes all the more significant.
 with regard to the ginners' report published at frequent intervals by tho bureau of the census. I not only regard them as of the utmost value in them selves, but I consider the continuance of their publication by the census bureau as absolutely essential to that perfect cotton reporting system which the mag nitude of the cotton interests of the country demand. and which I fully be- lieve will in the very near future, be so strongly entrenched In public confidence that nothing can discredt. Very respect fully yours, JOHN HYDE,
 "Chief of Bureau"