The Ely miner. [volume] (Ely, Minn.) 1895-1986, 1905-02-03
LONG RANGE FORECASTS.
T. S. Outram Treats the Subject in
Scientific Manner Showing
up Many Falacies.

| recent years, and in doing so snail
endeavor to show you how they came
into existence, some of their CLAIMS
| for public attention, how their work
! can easily be found to be totally un-
reliable, and also that their so-ca!led
| forecasts have ben seriously lnJur-
| ious to health and pecuniary wei
| fare.
Previous to the establishment OF
meteorological services by all the
most advanced nations of the world,
there was no selling of forecasts, eN-
cept incidentally in few almanacs,
| but since the distribution of the lore
casts of--the weather bureau have
been greatly multiplied so that they
now reach to all parts of the country
IN the daily newspapers and III other
| ways, these so-called long-range fore
casters have recognized the demand
for a better knowledge of future
weather conditions, and they are at
| tempting to supply the demand, put
as is almost always the case with
| those who wish to make a good liy-
| ing out of those who are not well
| enough Informed to know the genu-
inc from the spurious, their goods
| are not what they represent them TO
| be.
In order to sell their forecasts to
| the public, it is necessary for them
| to claim that they are based on
scientific data, for in this age nothing
goes unless it is scientific.
Probably the most taking fallacy
| is the one which holds that our
weather conditions are controlled by
planatory action or position. A very
| slight knowledge of astronomy
should be sufficient to show that this
| theory is totally unreliable. 1t has
been calculated that when viewed
from the sun the space occupied in
the suns sky by the earth is only one
| two-millionth of that great expapse,
| consequently the earth cannot posi-
bly, receive more than one two-mil-
lionth part of the energy continually
being radiated by that great lumi-
| nary, the source of all the different
forms OF energy with which we are
acquainted.
Take the forecasts of any of these
long-range forecasters and see if you
can find out definitely what the writ
er means. Strip Off the superabun
dance of words and see if you can
find d forecast for this place for a
definite date. The Notifications
claimed for these forecasts of the
distant future are really ridiculous,
for a storm of any severity, at any
distance and happening within few
days of the predicted time is consid
cred as an abundant verifcation.
On the other hand the forecasts
made by the weather bureau are def
mite; they mean what they say, and
there is a time and a quantity limit.
For instance, al forecast of "fair to-
night" means ah absence of rain or
snow between SIP. m. and 8 a. m. to-
morrow; most of the night may be
entirely cloudless, but if hundredth
of an inch of rain or melted snow
falls during The last minute or two
OF the period Jle7Iorecast is a failure.
A forecast for rain tomorrow means
that at least a hundredth of an inch
of rainwill fall between a. m. and
p. m. tomorrow; if this does not
fall within the period the forecast
is failure, even though there be a
deluge a few minutes before a. m.
and another one minute after p. IN.
If the forecast reads warmer to-
night" it means that a temperature
at least 6 higher than it was this
morning is expected if the prediction
is one made in summer, but if the
rise is only one of 80 the forecast is
failure. A forecast for colder to-
morrow" in winter means that the
temperature tomorrow at p. IN. is
expected to be at least 100 colder
than it is tonight. These examples
will show you with what eXactness
the forecasts made by the weather
bureau are proved. No allowances
are made; the time limit and the
quantity limit are fixed and must be
adhered to for the place where the
forecast applies.
A few instances will show the dam
age done within very few years: In
1895 man named Falb predicted
terrible earthquakes and storms
which put the whole of Spanish
America into a. hopeless and helpless
state of panic, with a total cessation
of work for weeks.
In 1880 the prediction of an awful
storm in our South Atlantic States
frightened many intelligent people,
and nine-tenths of the less intelligent,
so that the lives and business of
many were entirely altered.
In 1901 the prediction of a severe
hurricane on the coast of New Jer-
sey in midsummer brought panic to
! thousands at the summer resorts,
which could not be allayed till spe-
| cial message from the chief of the
| weather bureau stated the utter
| falseness of the dangerous rumor.
1t will be readily understood that
| in the instances named the health of
| probably thousands was seriously at
fected, as it is known that nervous
constitutions do not recover rapidly
| from such shocks.
| All the sciences that we know to-
day have had to fight their way to
| their present standing against the
assaults of the ignorant, the super
stitious and those who were anxious
to use dangerously imperfect
knowledge of their subject to make
money out of the over credulous.
The methods of the weather bureau
are open to every one; there are no
mysteries. If there is promise Of
improvement along any line that has
not already been investigated all the
details of the plan are carefully ex-
| amined, and if found worthy of con-
| Sider0fi0n tho recT1fc are nub1i c he'd