Burlington weekly free press. [volume] (Burlington, Vt.) 1866-1928, 1905-07-13
THE WHEAT CROP CRISIS.
Contest between the Harvestcrs and
tho GoIdrU Grain Pests.
From the Portland oress n'an.) &

New wheat has already commenced
to move toward the markets In Oklaho-
ma, Texas and parts of Kansas. With IL
arc coming to market tho usuoi reports Of
black rust, red rust the chinch bug. the
Hcssjan fly and all the rest of the pests
that hurt the wheat and help the mar
kct But we have had all these re-
PORTS in former seasons. and recollection
OF their appearance has thrown de-
cited air of uncertainty over tho situa-
ton. Staticians have been busy with
their pencils since the government crop
report appcarcd, about week ago, and
they have figured out some widely d.
vcrsent results for the crop now coming
on. Thc government does not mako
cumulative predictions SO early In tho
season, but In lieu thereof puts out some
percentage figures showing gain or loss
in conditions.
Tho statisticinn of the New York pro-
duce exchange has for many years fig
urcd out Il quantitivc result from these
figures and while 1t is not always Vcri-
fed by the crop returns for the year
for which tho particular prediction Is
made. II Is valuable as standard for
comparison According to the figures OF
this statistician. the governments con-
diton reports indicate u total yield Of
wheat this year of 7g7. 49, 900 bushels.
which. with the exception of the crop
of 1."i. would he the largest on record.
Should the alleged condition be MAIN
tanned until harvest. and thar amount of
wheat he secuted. we should have 105..
0'N.oco bushels more wheat than was pro-
duccd in this country last year. or IL
sufficient amount to put us back into
our old place as orc of tho big wheat
cvprriing countries Of tho world
,3ut there Is a world Of difference be.
tween til" promise of Il crop of l27."N.W N
bushels and the actual harvest or such
a crop. Taking the same condition and
acreage figures for a basis ono year ago
in Juno. tho experts figured out prob
able yield of G2S3o2.0OO bushels or &c.
O0O 600 bushels more than was actually
| harvested. Tho June condition reported
by tho government has at no time in
tho past five years been verified by the
yield which followed. Tho Juno figures
based on tho government condition and
acreage reports have in the past five
years indicated crop of from Isl SAG,
Ono bushels to 77s.o24.6oO bushels, with an
average of so, 1920 bushels.
| The maximum crop actually harvested
in that period fell 2s,cM.0Oo bushels short
| of the estimates based on the June re.
port. and the average for tho five years
was 4, o00.00O bushels less wheat than was
predicted by the statisticans who rseC
| the government report as a basis fol
| their figures. It Is the recollection oil
this invariable decline in conditions thai
now keeps the wheat market wrought
up to Il highly nervous state. ard for the
next 80 DAYS rome striking changes il
prices are not Improbable This countr,
managed to take care Of practically al
of the wheat that was grown last year
| with the exception of about 75OoO on
bushels, most of which was sent out n.
-four
| With such narrow margin between
the amount required ana the amour
available, tho price quite naturally rulet
abnormaly high throughout the season
Should the crop bo only 10000 on0 bushels
greater than that Of last year. it will re
quirc crop failure abroad or some othc
unusual occurrence to enable last sea
sons prices to be approx he'd Pcndin,
moro definite know lodgc as to tho out
come. there will be a strong tcndcnc
to hold the short stocks remaining an,
to check a frCc-sclling movement q
the new wheat that is available early