Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1905-04-02
BY EDWIN LEFEyRE.

because the love of gain is so undisgused
| there many well-meaning people consider
| the ticker a sort of roulette wheel. That
| the stock exchange. Notwithstanding the
practices and exploits of the Gateses and
| the Keenes is far more than the American
Monte Carlo, scarcely calls for demonstra-
ton, but there are times when, altogether
apart from the impression produced on lay
outsiders by the Wall street atmosphere,
the stock market itself, that is to say the
price fluctuations, apparently justify the
belief that the game of the street is a
game of blind chance This happens when,
as at the moment, opinions differ curl
ously among shrewd observers of the spec
ulative situation. Men equally experienced,
equally intelligent, equally good judges of
human nature and of the psychology of
stock gamblers no less than of the COM
mercial and financial conditions, are APP
parently at sea. Some Of them frankly
confess that they are merely guessing on
the probable course of values. But this is
not what all Wall street does all the time,
as the public may think, because some of
the self-confessed guessers of today occa-
slonally know what to do and they do it.
That is when they know the facts.
Facts Are Facts.
Opinions may and do differ. but facts
can't. You may say that the point of view
is not always the same, hence the di-
vergent views on politics. life insurance,
the divorce evil cocktails, Imperialism and
everything else in life. But there can be
but one point of view when fact is con-
sidered from the money-making side 1t is
so easy to reason logically from the facts
that people of mediocre ability can uner-
ringly point out faulty logic in far ADLER
men, just Mr. Morgan might make mis-
takes of addition that any en-dollar-a- week
bookkeeper could spot at glance. Wall
street PROBES SionalS do not always get the
facts. but they always are willing to trade
on information" And one reason why ev-
erybody doesn't make money in Wall street
Is that everybody can't ascertain the facts.
Mr.. Norman b. Ream lays great stress on
this point. In speaking of great market OPP
erations, he told me once: THE time to re-
treat is before you begin to advance" He
went on to explain that the time best spent
was the time taken to get together the
facts of the caSe-all the facts and nothing
but the facts There was so little danger
of not reasoning logically that, given cour-
age and capital, all should be over but the
banking of the profits. Mr.. j. 2. Morgan
has unbounded faith in Mr.. Ream as bus
mess adviser; SO has Mr.. Marshall Field,
so has Nj III. H. Porter, so has every big
man. that knows Mr.. Ream. All speak of
his wonderful judgment. He himself says:
81 have studied men since l was a boy. 1
had to because l was six feet one when l
was sixteen. l have been in many kinds of
business in various states. / have learned
to think, but above all l have learned to
get facts. That is why I have no preju-
dices. 1t is also why L never overcame an
insurmountable obstacle in my life. 1t is
better to make sure there is not a ten-foot
wall somewhere ahead than to try to butt
1t down when you come to it, If more peo-
pie took the trouble to get the facts before
they did anything else there would be less
failures and less sore heads"
Many Merely Guessing.
The Indebtedness of the price tendency
at the moment clearly shows that too many
people in Wall street are merely guessing.
The average speculator does not happen to
be in possession of the facts. 1t is pre-
cisely in such cases that the man who
knows has the advantage by several point
over the man who does not; and each
point means a dollar a share. Consider
Ing stock speculation broadly, the inability
to get, not so much inside information" on
one or another stock as sufficiency of
facts bearing on basic conditions through
out the country is the principal reason why
the public finds the Wall street game so
hard to beat. The case of Mr. William
Rockefeller would perhaps serve as an IL
lustration better than any other. Mr.. Rock
efeller Is an able man. But there are doubt
less many other just able. He is a very
rich man, but there are other rich men and
moreover market operations should always
be in proportion He has foresight the
faculty of eliminating the inessentiaI from
the consideration of a business problem
and his natural ability to weigh CONNER
cial and financial conditions accurately has
been developed by long practice in times of
stress and storm as well as in calm wealth
err But he has no monopoly of these gifts.
He has great financial courage, but there
are men in Wall street who daily risk ev-
cry cent they own or can borrow. He Is not
willing to stoop to dark and devious ways
to make money which might give him an
advantage over honest men, for even Mr..
Thomas w. Lawson says he is a very nice
man. But he is in q position to get the
fects, the real facts at all times This
reduces the possibility of failure to a neg
ligible minimum.
1t is a great mistake to think that Mr..
Rockefeller is fond of the ticker that
he works all day beside one. But the fact
remains that when he sends orders to his
brokers he is doing more than merely plac-
ing bets. To begin with. the marvellous
information-collecting machinery of the
Standard Oil Company is at his disposal
He Is abusing no position of trust when he
reads the reports Of the very intelligent
agents of the company, covering prac-
tically every crossroad, every village, town,
city and county in the United States, prop
erly tabulated and classified, which tell him
the condition of not only the oil business
but of every other business. He can check
or strengthen his own conclusions by con-
sultation or discussion with very able
men, The Standard Oil may or may not
sagacious lobby at Washington, but 1t is
certain he is exceedingly wel-informed as
to the political situation and the outlook for
legislation likely to affect security values
and the great Industries AS a director and
stockholder in the largest corporations and
financial institutions In the United States
he is very closely in touch with financial
conditions throughout the country and he
is likewise in position to know the situa-
ton abroad almost as well. He has very
decidedly the courage Of his convictions
and he can back them with some dozens of
millions. Those same millions, moreover,
enable him to acquire the invaluable gift
of patience. Impatience contributes almost
as insufficient capital to outsiders losses in
Wall street. Oftener than not over-specula-
ton is merely excessive Impotence in people
who are not willing to wait year or a
month, but must get rich in a week. II
Mr.. Rockefeller is sure he is right he goes
ahead-and ten-point break may possibly
annoy him-possibly, mind you. 1t does not
ruin him. It may, indeed. make his final
profits all the greater.
Question Of Present Prosperity.
Professional Wall street has been ex-