The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1905-03-19

1900 900 II plans are made for 10000
and only a 100000 growth is attained a
big error will have been made. In that
event the telephone plant would be eI-
cessively large for the volume Of business
to be carried on and enormous losses would
be incurred.
'On the other hand il plans are made
for 1000, 900 and a growth Of 900 900 should
be reached it would mean that the plant
would not be sufficient to care for the bust
ness, neoessitatng q radical reconstrlc-
ton and a wasteful expenditure Of vast
sums Of money.
NO, there is no sure way to avoid such
Losses. The best that can be done Is to make
an exhaustive study Of the situation and
then 20 ahead
In view Of the numerous freproof build
ings and costly switchboard systems which
must be provided for the different central
once districts il is obvious that not only
must the population be correctly fore
Casted but also the number Of persons
who will require telephone service and
their location. Ii Is also necessary 10
predict with some degree Of accuracy how
many times a day these subscnbers Will
be likely to call up the central office, ana
also the districts 20 which their calls will
extend. In fact II is only by doing this
that the trunk line equipment and subway
system necessary TO join the various ofnces
can be planned.
For example, if the subscribers in the
Harlem Office should send the principal num-
Der Of their calls to Broad street 1t would
naturally mean that in joining these offices
there would he required large number
Of underground ducts containing many
trunk cables. II on the contrary the calls
Of the Harlem subscribers were principally
to Jersey City the necessary duct and cable
equipment should extend TO that once
rather than to Broad street.
AN Of this must be determined in adj
vance as we'll as at what time Of day most
Of these calls are likely to arise, for the
operating force must be adequate TO handle
at all times a maximum number Of calls.
TO one who has not studied the subject
IL would seem an utter impossibilty TO meet
with any. degree OF precision these ques,
tons, and many Others even more refined
and complicated. Nevertheless so far q
fair degree Of accuracy has been possible.
In planning for the underground ducts
which will be required between now and
1920 the engineers go into the matter eH-
haustively. They endeayOr 10 all cases
to put down at one time a number sufficient
70 meet the ultimate requirements, and in
this way avoid unnecessary disturbance
OF the street and needless expenditure Of
big sums Of money. Our underground duct
system has already been extended to such
a degree that there are now EOS, 900 miles
Of telephone wires on Manhattan Island
representing 90 per cent. Of the total wire
mileage In this respect the showing
made in New York Is far ahead Of that
made by any other city in the world
A city commercially preeminent Is
bound to attract 10 itself business and
people in proportions quite unknown to
less important places; and that New York
Is the preeminent ity Of the United States
no one disputes. The only. thing which
can check it's growth is inadequate trans
r,ortation facilities
Naturally il life becomes intolerably
uncomfortable in q CITY the growth OF pOpu-
lation will be checked. Therefore in fore
casting New Hork's population for 1929
the telephone engineers have carefully
studied the effect upon the growth Of the
population OF improved rapid transit and
taken into consideration the opening Of
the subway and Of the Williamsburg Bridge,
which they believe TO be forerunners Of
many gubWays, bridges and tunnels.
by 1920 their calculations provide for
1000 900 telephone stations in the eighteen
mile area and 10000 telephones in use
in Manhattan, as against the 10000 now
used
an view Of the fact that wireless teleg-
raphy is now a certainty, have you, in
making your forecast taken into account
the possibility OF wireless telephony was
asked.
$50 far as can now see there is no proba-
biuty that any developments In wireless
telephony Will buDelhnlldlly hueCl pui pAhIlH
Instead Of being new proposition, wireless
telephony il really an older idea than is wire.
lees teleRraphy.
Nearly twenty-five years ago Alexander
Graham Bell succeeded IN transmitting
speech along a ray Of light for a dis Rnce
OF six or seven hundred feet No COM
mercial use, however, has been made Of
this invention, although some experiments
recently made In Germany have shown
that speeoh can be transmitted along q
ray OF light as far as twenty miles. This
result indeed was accomplished during the
Germsn naval manpuvres at kiel. when
ofioera aboard the mnn-of-war Nynphe.
twenty miles on the coast talked along ray
Of light TO a telephone station on shore
Whatever Developments there may be
In the matter OF wireless telephony will be
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