The Montgomery advertiser., 1905-01-29
Capt. Hobson's Address to Planters
 Convention on Cotton and War"

>>~~~>~ cotton markets Is the most sensitive and the most exposed. When war broke out in the Orient last year, it was clear that Japan and Russia, un- der the exhaustion, would decline in buying power and that the thriving cotton trade Of Manchuria would be cut of entirely. while the fate of China might become involved and endanger the whole Chinese market. Conse- quently. the day after war was de- clarej, cotton slumped cents a pound, and started on its downward path, go- ing off nearly cents a pound before
 indications came In of the large crop, which brought about further decline of about cents pound.
 International Combination.
 The chief aim of this years cam- paign has been to change the public opinion of Europe. Thus 1t is that Russia has conducted . pre-arranged system of retreats, and that the in- hue and cry of Yellow Peril" with such success that the people now stand with their governments on the side of Russia
 The combination is ready to move. and we can expect renewed reports of Chinese violation of neutrality, of Chinese disturbances and Japanese in- trigues in China, Russia reporting up- on the affairs in Mongolia. France ups many in Snuntung and Chilli The agents of these powers will probably facilitate and exagserate the Chinese disturbances. and then upon the pre- text of preventing massacre and q . general Chinese uprising, the armies. by pre-arranged program will enter and occupy the. provinces of China. Opposition on the part of Great Brit ain is evidently anticipated. and the inexplicable seizure of British ships. followed later by the inexplicabfe fir ing upon British fishing vessels, ap- pears as part of plan to excite Britt ish indignation, so that at the oppor- tune moment. the British may be the act of war which would at once put into operation the Russian treaty of alliance with France, and this would be the signal for Germany. Austria Hungary and Italy to join Russia and France.
 Thus the present war is producing a grouping that imperils the balance Of power, placing heavy preponderance on the side of the military as against the industrial nations. or on the side of war as against peace forces. No thoughtful observer can fail to see here all the clements for a world war: on the declination by the military powers of the interstate to the pro- posed second convention of The Hague and the Russian note complaining of
 
 na. It is idle to, imagine that the United States, the foremost industrial power, with more at stake in the Ori- ent than any nation, could look on Militarism and Industrialism. We should awaken to the full signifi- canoe of the events gathering in the Orient; The two antagonistic sys- 1 tems, Militarism and Iudustrialism, are | gathering for a death struggle The | Orient is the battle ground China Is | the objective.
 If militarism succeeds Tn intrenching the myriads upon which to levy for | men and for means. then 1t will per | petuate its harsh reign for centuries yet to come.
 On the other hand, if thwarted from obtaining the spells of war and left | simply to fair competition, militar-
 ism will be unable to hold its own, and
 will be driven to the wall, and be com pelled to disarm by the great economic | forces of commerce and industry, and
 we can then confidently expect the es- | tablishment of general and enduring peace long ere this century is gone.
 What would be the effect upon cot
 ton? t.S..
 | If peace is restored and maintained.
 cotton will start again upon it's up- ward course and in a few years, with | vast demand as China would create. | am conservative inPsaying that the | price would pass the 20 cent mark, and
 remain above this mark, no matter how | large the crop. On the other hand. if events are al- 1 lowed to drift on and general war | comes. cotton would become a drug on
 the market, even though reduced acre
 age calamity and distress would spread over the South. Indeed, with militar- l ism uppermost, wars and rumors of wars would continually disturb the l world, nations would be exhausted and
 lose in their buying capacity, and the
 myriads of helpless peoples would
 pass under the military yoke. and re-
 main unable to buy clothing. The
 greatest source of Southern prosperity
 would be permanently blighted. and a
 serious blow would be struck at the | general prosperity of America and at
 the happiness of mankind.
 is a question of 3 1-2 cent cotton or
 25 cent cotton. do not hesitate to
 say that the solid influence of the | South should be felt for having our
 to use every proper means to restore | the balance of the world on the side
 of peace, and to bring about the end | ing of the present war and the resto.
 ration of Manchuria to the commerce. | of the world.
 | Factors of Supply. 1 It only remains for us to refer sum- ! mRrily to the factors of supply. It Is l practically certain that the South will
 continue to produce the bulk of the
 worlds cotton. During the civil war when cotton was over S1 a pound, per. | sistent efforts were made all over the
 world to develop cotton growing, but | in vain. The Gulf Stream on one side | and a vast continent on the other. pro- 1 duce climatic conditions for cotton cul-
 ture. not duplicated anywhere else ir
 the world. We may expect some in. | crease in the output of Egypt on ac.
 count of developing irrigation, anC | possibly a temporary increase in tho | output of India, and other secondary | sources due to the recent high prlce 1 check this movement. Therefore tho
 South may be expected to continue tC l produce over so per cent of tho
 worlds supply so that tho question of supply lies in our owr
 hands.
 The two factors in determining tho
 supply are the seasons and the acreage
 holds. the history show that the tenn.
 perate zone is liable to wild fuctua. 1 tions in seasons which it is impossible I to foresee. The recourse to offset tho | unhappy consequences of wide ductua- l tions is a reservoir or hy-wheel, into l which the fat years can pour their sup, | plies for making up the deficit of the 1 lean years. The uncertainty of cottoT
 demand. hinging upon war or peace is l now added 10 the uncertainty of tht
 cotton season. Recourse to storage Is
 therefore absolutely necessary. and this | great convention must fail of it's pur- , pose, if a wide system of warehouse ] storage is not created. I will not en. ] deavor to go into the details of such a
 system, but venture to suggest that ii
 should be organized on bed rock prin- | ciples. and operate on the securest i lines, so that a warehouse certificate [ k.a ahg al fn fTRNfx