The Montgomery advertiser., 1905-06-21
LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECAST
The Scientific ImDOssibility of Making
 Them

The infinite desirability of foreknow- ing the seasons for the benefit of hus- bandmen is at once the opportunity of charlatans and the Justification of na- tional weather services. It avails lit- tie to decry the methods of impostors or to brand them as fakirs; the court of final resort must always be a compari- son of results and such comparison ev- eryone can now make for himself. Weather maps showing the actual con- ditions on every day are now published by practically every civilized nation and are accessible to all, and all that is needed to cure the most implicit belief in almanac predictions is an honest comparison of these predictions for a single season with the actual occur rences as shown by these maps. Con spicuous instances of failure. such as those of the artificial rainmakers. who a decade ago, were given the fullest op- portunity to test and exploit their theo- ries, or the colorless results of the ex- tensive campaign of bombardment as a protection against hail. which has been conducted for several years in Southern Europe do not serve however, to H. lustrate the confusion of tongues among the prophets of these latter days. who Lombard the skies to precipi- tate storms and Lombard the clouds to dissipate them. Government meteor ologists are not alone in the denuncia- tion of the fallacies. absurdities, and pernicious efforts of so-called long range forecasts.
 Professor Young. probably the fore- most American astronomer, speaking of lunar influences points out that the frequency of the moons changes is so great that it Is always easy to find in- stances by which to verify belief that changes of the moon control conditions on the earth A change of the moon necessarily occurs about once a week. All changes of the weather must, there fore. occur within three and three fourths days of change in the moon, one one-half of all changes ought to occur within forty-six hours of a change in the moon. even if there were no casual connection whatever. Now 1t requires only very slight predispo- sition in favor of a belief in the effect iveness of the moons changes to make one forget few of the changes that oc- cur too far from the proper time Coin cldence enough can easily be found to justify pre-existent belief.
 Unduestionably there is a general de- sire for an extension of the range of forecasts to cover the near future and, If possible, the coming season. If some explorer in meteorology and astronomy should discover some fundamental law nltnerto unknOWn, WhereDy he could ac curately calculate the time of arrival. the force and pathway of storms for weeks and months in advance, and could warn the people of future floods or drouRhts In defined localities he would at once take rank as the greatest sci enlist of the world. And then if he would reveal the secret of his discov- cry for the benefit of future generations he would be honored as the greatest of philanthropists, as well as the wisest of mankind. But alas. up to date this man has not arrived.
 Some of the ablest scientists of this country and Europe have devoted much time and labor to the study of this problem. They have consulted weather records of all countries taking note of the dates of heavy storms, and making comparison with the position of the moon and planets, to determine if there is any discoverable connection between the movement of those minor bodies and the sweep of storm eddies In the earth's atmosphere The eonscensus of opinion has been that there is no foun- dation of fact or philosophy for that system of long-ranEe forecasts. So. thus far, there has been entire failure to establish a scientific and practical basis for any kind of trustworthy pre- dictions as to the occurrence of storms. floods, or droughts In specified localities and at certain dates in future months or seasons. Though such foreknowl- edge is very desirahia. yet Rt -thn pg0a-