The Birmingham age-herald., 1905-07-09


 as the estimates of the acreage. condi- ton. and yield of agricultural products is- sued by the bureau of statistics of the department of agriculture. From an ob- scure and unimportant branch of the gov ernment establishment at Washiugton this bureau has grown to be a recog- nized authority on agricultural statistics, and a most potent factor in shaping the course of prices and influencing the oper- ations of producers, handlers, and con- sumers of the more important crops.
 On the 2d of this month, for instance, when the bureau issued it's first estimate on the acreage and condition of the cot ton crop of the present season prices on the New Orleans market showed a de- cline of 40 points, or g bale, under the high mark of the day, and 60 points, or sS a bale. under the high point of the week. Profits and even fortunes were swept away like heaps of sand before an incoming tide. One comparatively small opera.or lost s15.0O0 in exactly twenty-five seconds after the bureaus figures were announced and others parted with many times that amount during the course of the day. On the 3d of December last. when the bureau gave the cotton trade its first official intimation of the unpre- cedently large crop of last season in the shape of it's famous production estimate of 12.162,o0o bales-more than a million bales in excess of the yield of the pre- ceding year-remarkable slumps occurred on both the New York and New Orleans- exchanges and a maximum decline of 67 points was recorded before the gongs an- nounced the close of business for the day. These are only two of many similar occurrences which have been in evidence in the grain and cotton markets of the country in recent years.
 It Is but natural that an office which is capable of producing such startling effects should be an object of the most absorbing intrest to the grain and cotton trades, and especially to those who buy and sell not the actual commodities, but paper" cotton of wheat--i. e., futures. And it is natural, too, that all sorts of expedients- most of them the reverse of legitimate should be resorted to by spectators on both sides of the market for the purpose of discrediting the bureaus figures, and that efforts to obtain advance information should be constantly and consistently made. All this goes to support the state ment that more importance is attached to the estimates of the government office than to those of private individuals or firms and to show that, despite the criti- cisms which are constantly being offered by spectators, the bureau has more 1n- fuence In the shaping of prices than any other one feature, aside from the natural operations of supply and demand. Yet the public as a whole, and even many of those whose fortunes are directly af- fected knows comparatively little of the manner in which its work is carried on.
 An office charged with the collection of agricultural statistics was in existence long before the department of agriculture was created. The first figures in the previous year, and during the twenty two years that what is now the depart ment was merely a section in the patent office the function was desultorily exer- cised. Since the establishment Of the department by authority of the act of May 15. 1862. in which provision was made for the employment of a statistl- clan. operations have been conducted con- tinuously and have steadily increased In importance. The statistical office was given a bureau organization three years ago and now it ranks second to none in inc department Tn addition to the chief of the bureau, MT. John Hyde, who Is given the title of statistcian, there are an office force of ninety, state agents to the number of forty-three, eight field agents. six special cotton agents. and foreign agent whose headquarters are at London Then. too, there Is the crops or volunteer correspondents, comprising nearly A third of a million individuals who are in constant communication with the bureau and whose reports have npm- bered as high as 2,5O00o0 in single year.
 The bureau issues estimates or reports on wheat eight times each year. on cot ton seven times, on corn and oats each six times, and on barley, rye, buckwheat, hay and grass, potatoes tobacco, fruit, rice. and other products from two to eight times each. Up to six years ago the figures were based entirely on returns from the voluntary correspondents, who reported either directly to Washington or through the statistical agents maintain ed in each state. The system was not satisfactory however. It could not be made to keen pace with the rapid develop ment of agricultural industries, and the figures compiled from the returns were, sometimes radically wrong because or the insensible tendency of the voluntary corresnondents to underestimate. This tendency is regarded quite natural in- asmuch as a very large proportion Of the correspondents are farmers or others whose innate desire is to view conditions in light favorable to the producer
 Since the basic principle of the bureau is accuracy and Its work is valuable only in nroportion to its accuracy, MT. Hyde. imediately on his appointment to his present position, began to work Tor the betterment of the system and con seuuent greater degree of precision. Tn / this he had the active support or oecre- tarv Wilson, but Congress was slow to act. and 1t was not until 1899, two years after the present statistlcan went into office. that the improvement actually commenced. The first step was the ap- poinment of special field agents charged with the duty of watching carefully the development of each important crop in the country and keeping in touch with the hest informed opinion regarding condi- lions and prospects. Other betterments have been made from time to time, and. while the system is stin faulty, it is now perhaps all that could be expected in view of the small sum-approximately $15OOOO- which Congress appropriates for the main tenance of the bureau each year.
 How the Estimates Are Made Up
 The most valuable feature of the bu- rea,,,s work lies in the fact that 1t gives to the country approximately accurate in formation concerning acreage. conditions, and yield of crops long before the actual figures can be obtained by the census method or otherwise. The scope of this article is too limited to permit the giving of detailed information concerning the operations in connection with all the inn E nortant crops, but the work done with cotton may be cited as typical of the whole, and of rather more interest, since the cotton statistics are kept before the public much more prominently than those of other products.
 In making up it's estimates on cotton the bureau drays on seven distinct sources on information, as follows: Special field agents. who usually come originally from