The Fulton County news. [volume] (McConnellsburg, Pa.) 1899-current, 1905-06-28
LONG-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS.
The wesiber Bureau Trying to cSunieraet
MlschIevous Statements Of Astrologers

issued the following letter to counteraet
as far as possible the mischievous effects
of the work of astroogers, who pretend
to foretell the character of coming sea-
sons or the progress of storms and ordi-
nary weather condition for a month OF
year in advance, and whose unfounded
and unreliable forecasts are too often
given undue circulation
THE ceaseless change in the midst OF
essential stability and permanence that
is apparent among the heavenly bodies
suggests relation between those move
ments and the destinies of men and Of
nations as well as weather sequences.
SO obvious is this analogy that it is not
strange that in the childhood OF the race
il was exalted into an absolute casu1l
connection There is no more interest
ing page of history than that which
traces the growth Of astrology through
i,s various phases, the art of divination,
the taking Of the horoscopes and auspices,
and the gradual development of the
sciences OF astronomy and meteorology.
The first crude theories and conceptions
OF the Chaldean priests and the Magi
were honest efforts to interpret natural
phenomena In later and less simple
ages, however, when the priestly class
were still the repositories Of wisdom,
they sought to perpetua;e their influence
by concealing knowledge from the masses
or by enshrouding il in mystery, and
finally they welded it not TO enlghten
but TO enslave. And so persistent is
mental slavery, and so deep seated in the
heart of the race are these early teach
ings and beliefs that there is even yet a
predisposition to accept the supernatural
rather than to seek the natural causes
Of things.
THE infinite desirability of foreknow-
ing the seasons for the benefit Of hus-
bandmen is at once the opportunity of
charlatans and the justification of ma
tional weather services. 1t avails little
to decry the methods Of impostors or to
brand them as fakirs; the court OF final
resort must always be comparison Of
results, and such comparison everyone
can now make for himself. Weather
maps showing the actual conditions on
every day are now published by practi-
cally every civilized nation and are ac-
cessible TO all, and all that is needed to
cure the most implicit belief in almanac
predictions is an honest comparison of
these predictions for a single season with
the actual occurrences as shown by these
maps Conspicuous instances of fail
ure, such as those Of the artificial rain
makers, who a decade ago were given
the fullest opportunity to test and exploit
their theories, or the colorless results
Of. the extensive campaign of lombard
ment as a protection against hail, which
has been conducted for several years in
Southern Europe, do not convince the
credulous. They do serve, however, TO
illustrate the confusion of tongues
among the prophets of these latter days,
I,who lombard the skies to precipitate
storms and lombard the clouds to dissi-
pate them Government meteorologists
are not alone in the denunciation Of the
fallaces, absurdities and pernicious eff
forts Of so-called long-range forecasts.
Professor Young, probably the foremost
American astronomer, speaking OF lunar
influences, points out that the frequency
OF the moons changes is so great that il
is always easy to find instances by which
to verify belief that changes of the
moon control conditions on the earth. A
change of the moon necessarily occurs
about once a week. All changes OF the
weather must, therefore, occur within
three and three-fourhs days OF a change
of the moon, and one-half OF all changes
ought to occur within 40 hours OF d
change in the moon, even il there were
no causal connection whatever. Now, it
requires only very Slight predisposition
in favor of belief in the effectiveness OF
the moons changes 10 make one forget
a few OF the changes that occur too far
from the proper time. Coincidence
enough can easily be found to justify
pre- existent belief
"Unquestionably there is a general de-
sire for an extension of the range OF fore
casts TO cover the near future, and, il
possible, the coming season. If some
explorer in meteorology and astronomy
should discover some fundamental law
hitherto unknown, whereby he could ac-
curately calculate the time of arrival
the force and pathway of storms for
weeks and months in advance, and could
warn the people of future floods OF
droughts in defined localities, he would
at once take rank as the greatest scien-
tist OF the world And then if he would
reveal the secret Of his discovery for the
benefit of future generations, he would
be honored as the greatest of philan-
thropists as well as the wisest of man
kind. But, alas, up to date this man has
not arrived
THE problem OF seasonal forecasts i:
receiving at the hands Of the ablest and
most painstaking students OF both conti-
nents a comprehensive consideration that
is certain to be fruitful and far-reaching
in its ultimate results.
SO important and so pressing is the
work and so promising is the field that
the Chief Of the Weather Bureau j:
building and equipping a large observa-
tory, wherein the best talent available
will soon be employed to study the in
tricate and profound problems of the
atmosphere, whose solution promises i'm
proyement over present methods and re-
suits in forecasting and may lead r
time TO seasonal predictions on truly
scientific basis"
II twenty-five Dead; Tea Dying.
LODI (Ry Cable. - TWenty-two ner.