The news & observer., 1905-12-01
COTTON.

New York. Dec III present here
with my nnal and revised estimate of
the ,Ut.on production OF the United
States he season or I9O5- 20. 1t
has be, JrriVed at by submitting TO
my spec, Il counuy correspondents their
bley4uL. y5t.ma.es county by county
...., .1,>.,sting them after careful con
l.,tl.-... 10 MAKE any corrections that
tn,y co..3Gered necessary in theii
LSGfCS.
these corrections. together with
th,!r estimates Of october 30th and
the quantity OF cotton glnned by coun-
ties tas reoCr,ed by the Census Bu-
reaD up to the l4th of November 1or
this wear and the season of 1903 U4
VIII all be found set forth IN he sup
Elemental pages of this circular
In addition 10 the publication of
these details | have III the present in
stance gwen The name, business and
postOfice address OF each correspond
ent MAKING ne estimate.
/ have zone 10 the t1ojIble and cx-
pIIsc III Ii2IS pTe-SbthtiOn because /
invite the rnosu critical dissection or
what is the most thorough and labor
iOuS effort / nae eVeE made TO aSCeT-
tain the size of the cotton crop, and
because mere has never been in my
experience a crop concerning when
opinion, whether sincere or lnSIncere,
mas been so mu. h d Y-r.ance.
My estimate ,ubnshad October 10th
indicated Z; rot-.. -roWth for the sea-
son Of 1905'06 of 1O,9ol,4 400 bales.
The corrections made Dy cOIII-
ponuents o. lh+1r previous estimates
result N a net reduction or This figure
by 2l6,306 bales. Against this reuuC-
t4On there muet be taken into conSid-
Grafton the fact that in ~ counties the
amount actually 9inned up to the 14tn
Of November exceeds my corresponds
ents estimate of the production lii
those counties by 1Z7 500 bales
The net amount to be deducted from
my previous estimate Of 1891, 400
bales is, therefore, S8,706 bales, max
ing a total production for the current
season Of lU.S62,694 bales. To which
must be added 70 arrive at the com
mercial crop 250.000 bales Of linter5,
repacks. etc, and 33S.342 bales un-
MAJ Eeted from the previous crop, as
per the census report making d totai
of 588,342 bales Thus the total indi-
Gated commercial crop available is
1.451 .O3C bales
This total of 11.451.03C takes no ac-
count of the additional ginning in the
80 counties in which my estimate has
already been exceeded up to the l4th
of November, nor the additional gin
ming IN the large number of counties
in u hich my estimate has been closely
...lruximated By the cotton. ginned up
|, 80 18th OF November.
IN submitting these names and fig
ares. as | have, | invite the closest
sclut,ny of the trade. The correspond
elts, upon wnom / have relied for my
estimates. have been carefully selected
for their conservatism. reputation, eX-
perience. truthfulness, and business
success I doubt If taken as a whole u
more representative class of men could
be found IN tha South.
II in that portion of the belt where
the crop is known to have matured
carly. the amount OF cotton ginned up
10 the l4th of November shows, as ii
does, that NV correspondents have uil-
derestimated rather than oVercsti-
mated the Weld. IS ii not reasonable to
suppose that their estimates Will prove
correct in those sections where the
tion IS known TO have been late.
My correspondents estimate of the
Yield in Ellis county. Texas (the larg-
est cotton producing county in the
South). has been the subject OF no
little debate between interested par
ties. My correspondent s Mr.. I. *.
Roberts, OF WaXahachic, we'll and ia
vcrably known 10 many in the trade
| have had an extended correspond
ence with him in regard to the yield III
Ellis count" and under date of the
18th of November he writes me as fol-
lows:
''WaXahachie. Texas,
"No.embeT 18th. 1905.
ITO Theodore II. Price. ESQ.
New York City.
Dear Sir:-1he most rampant bulls
have admitted that Ellis county would
make considerably more cotton than
they thought it would. The weather
has been ideal for the maturing OF the
later cotton and it is opening up nice
w. confidently believe that Ellis
county will make $4,000 bales. My eS-
timatc OF the totai croD is 10,91O,OOO
bsles. Yours very truly,
(Signed) 'tr 4. ROBERTS.
surmise the details of my crop es-
innate and the correctness taken into
consideration in arriving at my final
estimate, as follows: