New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1904-01-31
Financial.
The Financial World.


its presence is not easily distinguishabIa tn.
commission houses are no better off for b,,s,ra.-
than they were three weeks ago. As n rsI.
the market the past week first hesitates IT,.
halted. and lastly declined. 1t was wen t,o,v
to all the Street that Mr.. Gates firm borvh,
stocks heavily. and took pains to make II known
they were buying: with the idea that given a
good lead the commission houses who represen,
the general public. would follow. A week aro
it was considered open question whether such
following would be obtained. II it were. pricsx
were sure of fair advance. Monday and g>1s.
day about settled the matter In the negative.
and after struggling with the market for a dav
or two. the bull party apparently gave I'D ths
job; and the decline Friday and yesterday
was supposed to be on their selling. considerably,
assisted by the room traders who did not Uka
the bank statement.
The enormous loan account seems stilI 20 hav.
considerable powers OF scare in It: but the d.
post account is still larger. and the cash 40
count is a strong one. Whatever may be thu
cause OF the immense size OF the items IN the
weekly statements now large beyond all prece
| denD. it may be assumed being as near
certainty financial forecasts can be- that m.
year 1904 is going to be one OF easy monsv.
There is nothing in the domestic political sitra
ton to disturb the money market. The pres
! ent incumbent will be the nominee OF his party.
and the other party will select some safe and
conservative man. Mr.. Bryan. in the shors
period since his return from abroad, has talked
| himself out OF the political arena and hereaftsr
takes his place a popular lecturer. The for
eign political situation contains elements OF dis
/ turbance; but not enough to cause US serious
trouble at this distance. When the war does
/ come il will be rather a stale piece OF new.
judging from the way things are going
| Cheap money never made bull market but IA
| a powerful sustaining force against a falling
| one. II makes IT cheap to carry stocks. Already
| the bank runners coming TO the commission
houses and Offering money; at this time last
year the same banks were calling loans. There
is a world OF difference IN that Then our for
| eign debit balance abroad last year was very
heavy: this year the big houses have credits.
| What last year a drain is this year re-
serve fund
Nothing OF this. however. proves that trade VIII
not suffer some diminution this year and that
railroad earnings rejecting this will not fall or
TO some extent. They probably WILL but quits
/ irregularly II IS the East and Middle West
| which has been hurt most; but high prices for
/ wheat and cotton have made rich the sections
| where they grown. In view Of these condi-
tons, the failure Of stock market 10 respond TO
the latest effort TO bull it-a failure directly at
| tributable to the apathy OF the public-is not 50
serious might appear. II means that the
market is still to be a traders market fo- a
time. with comparatively narrow fluctuations.
| The coming week may see some rally from the
| decline Of yesterday and Friday
| Another contributing cause 10 the slussshnees
Of the stock market undoubtedly is 10 Do found
In the enormous speculation in cotton. and "a a
less degree IN wheat with coffee as ,hi~d in
| the group. The attention OF Wall Street even IS
| largely diverted to these things: and the trad-
| ing in cotton has reached proportions wlicn
/ could only be possible with large public en-
gagged. Leaders IN that market. and bold ONES.
/ there are and must he: but the stock n1-set
| has just shown that leaders are rot enough %
make an extended speculation. Everybody IS
saying there viii be a grand crash in cotton
| sooner later: and Undoubtedly there wia-but
| from what level? The present or a higher one
Is this all speculation pure and simple or.is
| there Commercial revolution in cotton
/ there was in wheat some years go? Dollar
| wheat at Chicago for a generation held 20
/ be standard price: above II. wheat was a sale.
below II a purchase. on normal conditions. Then
| came first India. next Argentina, cOmpeti-
| tors with us in the European markets and doll
lar wheat a thing of the past The stand
ard was lowered to 80 cents. and the effects vera
SO far reaching that it was declared TO be a
Commercial revolution" This was one down
/ WaruS. IS IL not possible thaL one upwards -
coming in cotton?
| II Europe refused to take cotton at these high
/ prices. then IT IS certain that the market here
would be showing only the effects OF cornering
process. certain to be short lived. But II is not
/ on the contrary. the exports in December were
in value the largest OF any one month in the
history OF cotton expectation. being over So
millions When last year the cotton spectators
were working on the remnants OF the old crop.
/ the Secretary OF Agriculture declared il was
crazy speculation and said that II Mr.. SuIy
| could carry such prices into the crop. he
| (the Secretary would take of his hat 10 him.
Those prices were far below those at which
Europe is taking the crop The figures
show that in 1908 We exported 1922 million
pounds Of cotton and received for it S7S mill
ions OF dollars No such exhibit as this has been
made before in twenty years. or anything near
IT, And as bearing the year 1898 being the
same as 1908. in respect TO depression follow
ing il may be OppOrtune TO note that for four
years following 1895. our cotton exports. though
OF large volume brought US only 500, SlSS S-SS'
and S212 millions respectively.
The Importance OF these facts in relation 10
the present situation OF the country Is some
thing to consider. 1t may be further said THAI
wheat seems to be working up slowly but surely
to its old standard: and whereas when Indian
and Argentine exports had helped TO flood the
worlds markets. the public discussion was what
10 do with the surplus production; the econo-
mists OF to-day are discussing the excess OF pop
ulation rs compared with wheat production. and
predicting an impending great shortage in tins
,-orI5iz sfIDnIiaS