The Montgomery advertiser., 1904-08-20
10 CENTS AS MINIMUM
FARMERS SHOULD DEMAND THIS
 FOR THEIR COTTON.
The World Needs the Staple and Must Heve It and the Southern Farmer Alone Controls the
 Supply.

In view of the worldwide interest in the probable yield of cotton this year and of the remarkable close approxi-
 nation of last years yield made, far in advance of the governments estimate. by s. F. B. Morse. then a member of the firm of Daniel J. Sully & O.. Mir.
 Morse's estimate of the crop of this year is of unusual interest.
 Identified as Mir. Morse has been Tor many years with the fight for fair prices for cotton, his estimate of a yield not exceeding 11.250,000 bales this year, will command universal att tention. Data gathered by him last year were the foundation for the bull campaign making possible the vast ad- ditions to the income of Southern farmers.
 For the data proved the great short age of the crop. In an interview pub
 lished in this weeks Manufacturers
 Record Mir. Morse takes the position that excited speculation and appalling fluctuations are not the best means for
 ths attainment of fair prices to the grower. His contention now is that the South Is able and ought, through the use of legitimate business methods, to secure permanently fair prices from the worlds spinners for a product
 which is essentially q natural monop-
 oly.
 In his interview commenting upon
 the discussion by D. A. Tompkins,
 published last week. of the question
 how to maintain a fair average price
 for cotton" taken in connection with a recent interview as to cotton condi-
 tions from a British standpoint, Mir.
 Morse says:
 The business brains of the South
 have now within reach every necessary
 facility for the prevention of any re-
 currence of starvation prices for the
 South's great staple without having to
 invoke the aid of speculative forces of
 any sort or kind. It Is purely busi-
 ness proposition to determine cotton
 values by averaging the prices of pre- ceding periods and estimating the fn- creasing necessities of the world.
 From careful study of statistics and a conservative estimate of expan-
 sion in consumption. 1t is my opinion that 10 cents per pound is the minimum price the South should make up It's mind to take for its cotton year in and year out so long as 1t holds a virtual mo- popoly in cotton production. That this can be done by 8 comprehensive ware house system and an abatement of ex- fsting evils In handling, Is admitted by all business men and bankers who have given to this subject their honest, earnest thought"
 In view of the almost absolute accu- racy of Colonel Morses estimates of last years crop and of those of the three preceding years. he was asked 10 give his views as to the crop now about to be harvested.
 Tt is too early" he replied. for anyone to form a definite opinion. Any estimate made now must necessarily be based on impressions rather than upon opinions, though there are sew eral conditions surrounding the grow ing crop which have already become clearly apparent to all careful observ- CTS. Notable among these is the. grad ua1 deterioration in soil. the apparent degeneracy of seed virility and the in- creasing exhaustion of efficient farm labor.
 Making the most moderate allow aiico for the consequences of these three clements of contraction, and leaving other drawbacks out of the calculation, a crop of eleven and one- quarter million bales is the maximum to be expected. How far this maximum may be reduced by unreasonable weath. CT, early frosts and the increasing dep- relations of the boil weevil and other insect enemies, 1t is as yet impossible to foretell.
 But, for the sake of argument, let us figure on the possible maximum not only for this season, but for the next two or three years. It is my conten- tion that, by virtue of a constant ex- pansion in the worlds requirements and the fact that there Is no substi- tute for cotton, and in view of the en- on manufactured reserves due to recent short crops and the ex- haustion of reserve raw material, it would take every one of these eleven and one-quarter million bales, 0 e. the maximum crop) for at least three seasons to restore a normal parity In the relation between raw material and manufactured.
 Tn support of this contention I may quote from the first of a series of ar ticles on the cotton requirements of | Great Britain now being published si- l in The New York Times | and in The London Times the follow | Ing paragraphs:
 "First-Stated In a single sentence, tho present position amounts to this: | The worlds supply of cotton is no long, g. equal to the worlds demand
 "Second--The estimated yearly in- crease in the demand is put at from iOo,O00 to 500,000 bales. and not only is the present production inadequate. but In another ten years an additional D. O00 900 bales may be required. Lanca- shire's shortage for the last year or two may be put at 100000 bales