The Irish standard. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn. ;) 1886-1920, 1904-01-30
IRISH OPPORTUNITY

carious retention Of power to the Irish
Nationalists, or, in other words, to the
very men whose attempt to secure
Home Rule for Ireland provoked the
coalition between Conservatives and
Liberal Unionists, says the New York
Sun.
In the Parliament which assembled
in 1892, and lasted for some three
years, the Gladstonian Liberals and
Irish Nationalists combined had ma
jority of forty. Small as it was the
majority sufticed to pass the second
Home Rule bill, and, perhaps, had Mr..
Gladstone's physical strength permit
ted him longer to occupy the post of
leader, it would not have collapsed in
1898. The followers of Mr.. Gladstone
iii the last stage of his career, how
ever, constituted more homogeneous
body than that which Mr.. Balfour can
now hope to command. The go men,
bers of the House of Commons return
ed at the general election of September
and October, 1900, We're divided po-
litically as follows: 334 Conservatives,
6S Liberal Unionists, 1856 Liberals and
81 Nationalist. Obviously the Min
isterial majority at the outset was 1874;
in other words, transfer of GS votes
from one side to the other would even
at that time have forced the govern
ment to resign.
The net outcome of the by-elections
that have taken place since October,
1900, has been materially to decrease
the ostensible strength of the Conserv-
observation-disclosures coalition, so
that its majority would now be wiped
out if about fifty votes We're transfer
red from the Ministerial to the Oppo-
sition lobby. Since the last two by
elections those at Gateshead and Nor
wich-nobody doubts that the Free
Fooders-a convenient term for those
former supporters of the Balfour gov
eminent who are now determined to
oppose it's fiscal policy-will muster
more Inun nICy votes.
1t is believed, for instance, that of
the Liberal-Unionists at least three
tifths, or say forty, will side with the
Duke of Devonshire in his determined
resistance to Mr.. Balfour's programme
of retaliatory tariff; and it is GER
tain that a similar stand will be taken
by many Conservatives, headed by
two eX-chancellors of the eXchequer,
and by a son of the late Lord Sails
bury. Some we'll Informed persons
have computed the number of these
Tory seceders at upward of eighty,
but let us put it no higher than sixty.
The total detection, therefore, from
the Ministerial ranks would be about
hundred, or quite enough to extin,
guish their nominal preponderance
and substitute an adverse majority of
about one hundred.
Evidently the assistance of the 50
Irish Nationalistst will be indis-
pensable if the Bafour government is
to live week. With their assistance.
If our figures are approximately cor
rect, the premier would haze a ms ior-
ity of about siXty-four, but THIS n.l-
jOrity would not survive Il transfer of
thirtythree votes from the Ministerial
to the Opposition side. Such trans
fer would almost certainly take place
in, 70 hi,
tionalists, Mr.. Balfour should offend
some of the deeply-rooted prejudices
of his Conservative ad|herents. For
example, although nothing is more
reasonable than the request of the
Irish Nationalsts that the government
shall endow teaching university for
Catholics in Ireland, there is no meas
ure more likely to ALLEVIATE Il certain
element among the Protestant sup
porters of the Ministry.
AS for the bills which Mr. Wynd-
ham has promised to Introduce for the
relief of agricultural laborers and of
the congested districts in the west of
Ireland, we assume that these meas
ures could be carried through the
House of Commons without causing a
split in the Ministerial ranks. 1t
would be otherwise, however, with a
proposal to give Ireland Home Rule,
even in an attenuated form. A con-
siderable section Of his Conservative
friends would unquestionably refuse
to follow Mr.. Balfour in that direction.
We must recognize, then, that Mr..
Balfour will find it extremely difficult
to avoid defeat in the House of Com
mons at the coming session. AS he
has never been supposed to have any
taste for acrobatic performances, it is
quite on the cards that he may either
renounce the task Of governing by re-
signing the post of premier, or, by dis
solving parliament, may give his
friends and the Free Traders chance
to test each others strength ut the
ballot box.