The San Francisco call., 1904-02-22
TRADE OUTLOOK UNCERTAIN.


and Asiatc nations and this country keeps out Of
the hottes there will be call upon us for
all sorts OF army and navy supplies, which will produce
abnormal business activity aAd high prices throughout
the country; but it, unfortunately, the United States
should be drawn into the conflict there is no knowing
what may happen in commercial way. Everybody sees
this, for the handwriting the wall plain enough as
far it but the impossbiy of knowing just what
this country will feel itself called upon to do creates
feeling of doubt and uncertainty has already affected
the speculative markets and may affect general
trade itself.
AT present, however, gaining rather than los
ing by the Russoapanese and its concomitant dis
orders. Both countries ordering goods from US
especially the Pacific Coast, and the prospects of
strife lasting months has led sharp advances in
the cereals but the depressed condition of the foreign
bourses, which international securities of every kind
have been declining. has damper stock
market Money has thus far escaped serious stngency
but IT is slowly hardening in Europe Speculation in
stocks and bonds has fallen low ebb both here and
abroad quite natural under the circumstances No
body wants the bonds of nation plunged into devas
tatng unless the standing and power of that
high and puissan that its continued prosperous
existence after the war; how results is prac
tcay assured and the bonds of such nations do
tempt investors
Capital breads war Thus we see a general downward
tendency in the bonds of all European nations During
the past week English consols supposed be about
ened while Russian and Japanese issues have declined
daily and Bulgarian bonds have been unstable The
bourses of every financial in Europe have felt the
strain of uncertainty and have reported business light
and extremely sensitive to every vague Wall
street stocks have standstill and the whole
of stock speculation. both in this country and
abroad reflects the hestatng and dubious signs of the
times.
Though this country is thus far comparatively free
from prospect of foreign ENHANCEMENT there little
doubt that if the present complications confined
Russia and Japan business would be much
is. Our crop prospects good, internal demand
for merchandise and produce excellent, national
treasury amply supplied with gold and banks
carrying large of cash Our foreign trade while
less affected way the other by the war; is
Of large volume and the goods export are bringing
comparatively high prices Collections reported good
all the country and general atmosphere stabil-
y and confidence pervades all classes of trade Still
there is no knowing at what Europe may break
out into vast and disastrous confagraton which may
produce consequences which we cannot possibly oresee
hence exporters and importers proceeding with
caution fnancier watching their and
the whole commercial situation thus kept in state OF
suspense, for which the country itself in nowse re-
sponsibe.
Locally the American markets active Under the
stimulus OF possible in the Balkans which of course
means partial if not utter suspension of wheat ship
ments from Russia and the Danubian countries wheat
has started upward and is rising rapidly under large
speculation while reports from Chicago say that the
market already broad is expanding, while the Continent
at last awake TO the situation advancing its bids for
the grain in this country The minor grains feel this
quickenng. impulse and going up sympathy
Speculation in provisions. with the bulls predoranang
keeping that market spite OF the bcarish feeling
among packers and professional traders who regard the
market with indifference and give it support There
only three important lines of trade tagging at the
moment-coffec cotton and iron. The former have
atciy been in the throes of iqudato though there has
been reaction in cotton during the past few days and
pig iron has weakened result of backward demand
increasing production and reported accumulation OF
stock. The wool and hide markets reported steady
and in good condition for sellers. while dry goods have
become more active in sympathy with cotton with buy
crs briskly repenshing assortments and paving full
prices without hesitation The general dstributive trade
OF the country, while good. is backward, owing largely
to inclement weather throughout the East and West
which mDarts unfavorable aspect spring trade
There was sharp drop in the bank clearings last
week. the decrease from last being "a per cent with
all but three four of the largest cities showing marked
losses, ranging from per San Francisco to n
per New York. the pronounced loss at the co,
trys metropolis being due probably the sagnatiou in
Wall street The clearings themselves fell below the
100000 mark being $I7342o5ooo the smallest vol
ume for time The failures for the week were ,az
against 2f7 last year, and included insurance com
panes thrown into insolvency by the Baltimore fire
Here in California enjoying rise in the nrod
ucts of Our SOIL due depleted supplies of cereals and
the demands of Russia and Japan upon our pranares
From the selfish standpoint of dollars and cents we are
prohting by the Oriental war, which putting GOOD
deal OF foreign money into pockets The recent |
rams and the almost the California farmer
another fine year and the realization of this imparts
feeling of confidence the whole State We are 6nd
ing immediate markets for everything we produce and
0rfra 1aor.