Arizona republican., 1904-02-07
PARIS ABSORBED.
The Cloud iT: the Far East Casts a
 Shadow Over Lesser Matters.

riveted on the ominous war cloud hanging over the far east, and for the time being, Dreyfus, the Homberts and the expulsion of religious orders are temporarily forgotten. The newspapers forecast that the war is near at hand. Most conservatives agree that the. only hope of averting it lies in the reces- sion of Japan from it's demands.
 It is noticeable those having govern ment relations take a discouraging view Official opinion has clearly turned toward the pessimistic idea. al- though it is not yet ready to concede that the last chance has gone. Off, cials are, however, convinced that Rus sia will not yield to Japan's demands relative to Manchuria so that if the war depends on that issue it will be for Japan to make the final decision.
 In the matter of actual news the for eign office was unable today to give any information as it has not yet been officially advised that the Russian re- ply has been sent. The last definite official dispatch from St. Petersburg said that the reply was expected to be signed and sent on Thursday. Since then there has been no official advice that the reply has eRctually gone.
 In the peantime the embassies and legations are centers of unusual tc- tivity in connection with the far east ern situation.
 Ambassador Porter sees Foreign Minister Del Casse frequently and also keeps in touch with the Russian and Japanese representatives. Other members of the United States embassy mingle in diplomatic circles and ex- change information with all their col leagues. Definite results are promptly communicated to Washington.
 During one of these meetings M. Le- Roy Beaulieu. an eminent authority on Russia and the far east, was en- countered. Being asked what he thought of the Russian controversy with Japan. he made the significant reply:
 "In the event of war I am convinced that neither party will be able to conquer the other. That is, Russia will not be able to penetrate into Japan and Japan will equally be unable to 1 penetrate into Russia and give a last ] ing effect to any temporary triumphs" 1 M. Beaulieu seems to base his con- viction on the fact that after the first 1 great battle of the contestants there would be geographical obstacles so great as to make decisive hOstiiities impossible.
 A novel view is taken in certain ini- portant diplomatic quarters, that the most effective means of preserving peace is for both Russia and Japan to claim a great diplomatic victory. thus satisfying the home sentiment and subduing the war spirit. The view finds rather serious accep-ance at the foreign offices of which officials say that if the negotiations bappiiv result in peace, both sides will oja:m great diplomatic triumphs IS q means of satisfying local sentiment.
 One of the most prominent of Rus sian officials said tonight tha- definite knowledge concerning the contents of the Russian reply will Le com:nuui- cated to the world certainly by Mon day. This official intims ted that at least the essential features had al- ready been made known to the Trench government. He recognized thoc war would not be popular in Russia because of the distance from the scene of cor fiict and the unfamiliarity of the Rus sian people regarding ;he question.
 Baron Hayashi, the Japanese minister to Great Britain, in talking to the Lon don correspondent of Figaro, refused
 
 an interview which was published in the Matin, stating that he had author iZed the official publication of the fol lowing: "Russias reply has not been received. and. so far as I know, the situation is unchanged, but if Russia will not accept the clauses which Japan considers essential, war is inevitable"
 Barom Hayashi. during the interview, expressed the opinion that the optim- ism of the French press is due to the fact that the far eastern question is less studied in Paris than in London, and he dwells on the essential points of Japans note. demanding the mutual recognition by Japan and Russia of the territorial integrity and independence of China and Korea, which amounts to formal recognition of Chinese sover- eighty over Manchuria. The minister did not seem to believe that Russia would accept this.