New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1904-01-31
NEWS OF TWO CAPITALS
AFFAIRS IN LONDON.
Chances Of Peace or War-Han-
chuYi0n Situation.

cs5.oias 70 Tho New-York Tribune by French cable1
Copyright. 1904: BY The Tribune Association)
London. Jan. 30.-The diplomatic byplay con-
ssnues. but there is authoritative account
OF the state Of the negotiations between Russia
and Japan The newspapers are filled with
sensational dispatches. but there has been no
material change IN the situation in the last
three weeks. except that there has been an os-
tentat:Ous display OF preparations for war on
both sides. and the inept government OF China
has granted concessions 10 the United States and
Japan. and shown a disposition TO brace up and
abandon her nerveless attitude OF neutrality.
The Russian government procrastinates. and ia
pan reveals reserves Of patience and pertnacity
equal TO her own Oriental resources Of duplicity.
What Japan has demanded IS the incorporation
OF the Russian pledges to evacuate Manchuria
and 10 respect the integrity of the Chinese En-
pre in a formal treaty, in which the indepen-
dence OF Corea will be guaranteed. These pledges
have already been made in the collective note
20 the United States and other powers. and
Russia is responsible for them individually,
but as there is no probability that there can
be collective action for enforcing these pledges,
Japan insists upon having them repeated in a
formal convention. When the japanese occu-
pied Port Arthur they were forced TO retire be-
cause they were menacing the independence of
both China and Corea- The japanese have re-
peated the argument with logical effect against
Russia, and IL is not strange that the crafty
diplomats at st. Petersburg find it difficult 10
make reply. Nor is ii easy to understand why
Japan should consider a formal treaty much
more binding than a circular note. Certainly.
no diplomatist here believes that the Russian
promises respecting the evacuation Of Man
churia, if repeated in treaty. will be redeemed,
ala
specting Egypt will ever be carried out
The chances Of peace or war depend upon the
practicability OF satisfying the amour propre
OF each antagonist. Those having cues at the
foreign embassies here are pessimistic. and this
feeling Of hopelessness is shared by City fnan-
ciers- War is evidently expected at the Japan
csc Embassy, and there is little confidence in
government circles here that it can be averted.
The temperature is higher at the French En-
bassy than elsewhere but the effect is pro-
duced artihcially. The financial interests of the
great European capitals are opposed to war. but
the Rothschds cannot dictate the Russian an
swer nor prevent the occupation of Corea and
a great hattie for sea power if Japan's demand
for the reinsertion in the draft Of the treaty of
the guarantees of the integrity Of China be I'M
satisfactorily met. Outside the chief centre OF
diplomatic disturbance there are many sig
niicant tendencies. The Chinese government is
cooperating with Colonel Younghusband in
bringing the Tibetan lamas to reason. This is
another sign that China is escaping from Rus
sian influence.
The Sultan, at Constantinople being con-
fronted with the renewal of Sarafofrs cam
pagn IN Macedonia, is striving to settle the
question himself without reference 10 the in
sincere proposals of Russia and Austria King
Leopold's visit to Berlin has set Continental
journalists gossping about the possibility OF
the sale Of the Congo Free State to Germany;
but this is idle chatter. The Emperor has his
eyes fixed upon the ultimate absorption OF Den
mark and Holland. with their colonial posses
sions. This would be a more reasonable and
safer policy than the attempt to regulate the
Impressive monopolies Of the Congo. Mr. Cham
berain is unconsciously an ally of the German
Emperor, so far Holland is concerned. What
can Holland do except TO join the German
Customs Union if England abandons free
trade?
Lancashire remains in a high tension OF ex-
citement over American gambling in cotton.
The execution of contracts is ruinous business
when cotton keeps rising like a balloon. A
large section of the industrial population of
Lancashire is unemployed. and almost as angry
when Henry Ward Beecher was mobbed
early in the Civil War. Various additional ex-