The Minneapolis journal. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn.) 1888-1939, 1904-02-20
Dollar Wheat.

wears had passed since the figure was
reached before, in a bull campaign, In
some respects not unlike the one now |
under way.
The dollar level marks the passing
of the old arguments on which the
rise began. To-day there is war in
the far east, reiterated report OF a
May corner in Chicago, a general mix
up in European and oriental political
affairs with suggested possibilities of
war between great powers, and THESE
things have supplanted the old con-
sentative supply and demand argu-
ments that suff1ced to carry wheat
from 75c we'll up into the 9O's. There
was legitimate ground for the advance,
and it may yet be found that 81 Is
legitimate price for cash wheat but
the market is thing no longer to be
Judged by old standards. Speculation
has it now, and any prediction as to
what it will do would be hazardous.
The tendency, in times of specu-
lative activity, is to throw conserva-
tism to the winds. The week has
brought some evidence of this. Trad
!
| in their minds for precedent or COM
parison, and since the rise has been
attended by many minor signs remem-
bered to have been seen in the Letter
deal, some of the more enthusiastic
bulls, to whom 81 wheat LOOKS
cheap, are now inclined to think there
may be repetition of that year. This
might easily come about as result
Of war involving the great powers.
But to assume, as some nave DONE
that it will come because conditions
. are the same as In the Letter year, is
to be in error, for conditions are not
the same, and this error may. react
, disastrously upon traders who allow
, it to run away with judgment.
When Joseph Letter began his
: operations he had, as a basis to start
9 on. g. preceding three-year period OF
1 very moderate crops; an average
. worlds production of about 2,35O,000,-
: 900 bushels in 1895, 1896 and 1897
To-day no such condition presents
$ itself, for during the three years, 1901
1902 and 1908, the worlds production
- was much larger, averaging abou
q 3,O5O,00O,OOO bushels. The United
" States in the three years preceding
h the Letter deal, averaged ATS, OOO,OOt
: bushels and in the three years JUS
4 passed has averaged 685,00O,OOO bush
+ els. Population and consumption
. have of course Increased greatly, We
,, it may fairly be questioned If the,
g have increased in a ratio to correspon'
II with or offset an average increase o
700, 100000 bushels in the worlds pro
"a duction, and of 210,000,000 bushel
>, in the production in our own country
r Proof that Letter had a period
unusually light supplies, all thing
= considered, in which to operate, !
= found in the fact that while the higl
- prices drew much wheat into sight, tn
visible, after the deal was all over, wa
. down to the smallest for many years
. or only 7,147,0OO bushels, yet this dea
attempted under conditions vastl
is more favorable to it's success than noN
lie exist, ended up with terrific smash
ia entailing losses of millions upon tn
manipulation and many of his follow
ers, having demoralized business /
grain and flour during its height.
Much is heard of a scarcity c
= wheat. There is a scarcity Of goo
'e milling wheat In America and it is
i7 long look ahead to a new crop, We
as a matter of fact the wheat produe
:" ton of the world last year was create
" than ever before known, the years pre-
10 ceding having shown good yields ais
- There is a great plenty on the who'll
d. unless our government statisticians al
60 wrong, for the department of agricu
LII ture very recently put out the annu;
10 figures showing a total worlds produt
re ton of 3,193,556,000 bushels. again
III 3,10O,1S1,000 bushels. In othe
IL words, the world raised last year SO
nc 475,OO bushels more than in the yes
. before, about as much wheat in e:
ch cess as the entire great state of Nil
ne nesota ordinarily produces in a yea
yet to-day wheat prices are 25c
'st bushel higher, and higher than Fl
De six years, in the face of good world
lie. crops. From the worlds supp
ed viewpoint it is not a shortage Of whe
OF but an unevenness of distribution
cir yield. This week Argentine sent
ct Europe almost 100000 bushels al
he Australia will send about 100000
he while our own exports for the we
ill show only 1,675.00O bushels.
"a The market will soon meet a te
tai the test of cash wheat offerings.
es, great argument for general streng
he has been the parity of cash wheat wi
be futures, and the premiums paid
some instances. Wheat at a dolls
ow or any figure above a dollar is n
ed high so long as millers are paying ca
nd for the actual stuff to make into flo,
rts and are doing a satisfactory busine
led as has been the case to date. T
lat great indeterminate factor is the effe