The Mitchell capital. (Mitchell, Dakota [S.D.]) 1879-1918, 1904-12-16
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long range foIc cistins the most
earnest thought and careful and Inn
partial Investigation, With tle lie
suit that they are thoroughly con
WINGED that the ability TO make lcli
forecasts, of Il reliable character, is
not at the present time possessed by
anyone. And this opinion Is shared
and fully Endorsed by all proni nent
meteorologIsts and scientists OF tho
world. Neither Professor Moore nor
any other scientist OF repute is In the
least disposed to criticlse anyone who
is engaged la honest research along
these lines OF Investigation rather
are they ready to hail with delight
the discovery OF meteorological prin-
ciple or physical law that may tend
to make reliable weather forecasts
for long periods possible. On the
other hand, reliable and definite
weather forecasts are of such import
ance to the very extensive CONNER
cial and agricultural interests OF the
United States that he who does not
lend his voice and influence to en-
posing the fraudulent character OF
the so-called longrange forecasts now
scattered broadcast, may we'll be
considered remiss II his duty to the
public, more particularly il he IN
any way occupies the position of a
mOlaar nf pnblio opir,jon
1t is not at all unreasonable that
men who made meteoro,ogy and as
tronomy a life study should view the
utterances of long range forecasts of
the present day with relation only
to their baleful influence upon the
credulous understanding as they dc
their harmful character, their tend
ency to bring the science of meteor
ology into dispute and retard the
work of the honest investigators, and
the fact that they are issued wholly
with a view to the personal gain of
their o%riginators. An instance is on
record where, IN the year 1901, a
fraudulent forecast Of a hurricane for
the New jersey coast ON a certain
date created such anxiety that it
became necessary for the chief Of the
weather bureau to issue a counter
acting statement by telegraph to the
effect that the forecast was a fake.
1t is needless to state that the pre-
dicted hurricane did not occur.
Usually long range forecasts are of
necessity only haphazard guesses ex-
pressed in such ambiguous and in
detn1 terms as to make it impos-
sible for them to escape ventication
sometimes, at some point on the
earth's surface. While it is the
dream OF all meteorologistS Of repute
that the time may come when it will
be possible to predict with accuracy
In what particular a coming month
or season may differ from the normal
conditions for like periods, or from
some particular month or season COW
ering like periods, it is the we'll
grounded opinion of all of them that
longrange forecasts as now issued are
not only unworthy of the confidence
OF the public but are absolutely harm
full, especially when of a sensational
nature.
1t would seem that if those persons
who read longrange forecasts would
only note the phraseology they would
o o realize for themselves that the
forecasts are not only as indefinite as
possible with regard TO the time Of
occurance of the predicted condl-
lions, but also that the exact portion
OF the country to be affected is stat
ed in such general terms that no safe
conclusions can be reached.
With a fair knowledge Of the gen.
eral direction OF movement of atmos-
pheric disturbances Within the bound
aries OF the United States, any man
OF ordinary intelligence and shrewd-
ness could make just as s%erviceable
weather forecasts as issued by these
astrologcrs.
The student of m%eteorology knows
that atmospheric disturbances or more
or less intensity, commonly known
as storms, are nearly always in oper-
alton somewhere in the area of coun-
try covered by the United States,
and he also knows that the general
direction Of their movement is from
west to east, except in the case of
what are known as West Indian hur.
ricanes, which move northward and
usually along the Gulf and Atlantic
coasts. He is also we'll acquainted
with the fact that the circulation Of
the winds about these disturbances
is from southerly directions on the
the east, and westerly and n%ortherly
directions on the west side Of them.
Hence, as a disturbance approaches
a given area Of country from the
west, the winds are southerly and
naturally warmer AS the disturb
passes Eastward of the given