The Irish standard. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn. ;) 1886-1920, 1904-01-16
HOW WILL THEY vOTE7

are already at hand. Both national
committees have met and selected the
places and times of the national con-
ventions. The papers are discussing
candidates and measures. Soon those
fond of making predictions and
weighing probabilities, will take pen
ellis and political aln,anacs and figure
out just how this or that candidate 10
to be nominated and elected. In max
ing such figures it will be necessary
to keep in mind that the electoral COL
lege, which will elect the next presi-
dent, will be larger by twenty-nine
votes than the last electoral college.
There will be 47o votes in the next
college, making 23o necessary for
choice. In the last college there were
447 votes with 224 necessary for
choice. In 1000 Mckinley received
2o2 votes and Bryan 155. Thus, not
withstandng the increased number
necessary to elect the Republicans,
have but to maintain their vote of 1000
in order to insure success. OF the
20 additional votes nine are from those
southern states which are sure to go
for the Democratic candidate no mat
ter who he may be, nine are from
states which are sure to go Republi-
can under any condition and eleven
are from states which are more or
less doubtful The increase in the
electoral college is therefore not likely
to make any difference in the result.
In 1892 Cleveland had Ell votes, which
is many more than is necessary under
the new apportionment.
The interesting question is, what
states must the Democrats carry in
order to win. 1t is certainty that
they will carry the following states:
Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia,
Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri,
North and South Carolina, Tennessee,
Texas and Virginia, with 1888 electoral
votes. 1t is almost certainty that
they will carry Kentucky and Mary
land. Nothing but great mistake can
prevent these states going Democratic.
Both went for Mckinley in 1896, and
Maryland went for him in 1900, but
since then both states have been fully
redeemed by the Democrats. Both
states have Democratic governors, and
Kentucky has two Democratic sena-
tors, although both were Republican
after 1896. Maryland has one Demo-
cratic senator and the present legis-
lature will elect another Democrat, so
that both states have swung clear back
into the Democratic column. These
two states have 81 electoral votes
which makes the Democratic total $50.
The Democrats can start the CAM
paign with an assurance OF $50 elector-
al votes. Eighty more are needed to
elect the candidate. Where are they
most likely to come from? 1t will be
noted that we do not count on any votes
west of the Mississippi river. In 1896
Bryan carried many of the western
states. In 1900 he still retained control
of Colorado, Idaho, Nevada and Mon
tana. These last four states now have
fourteen votes. 1t is probable, how
ever, that the movement back toward
party lines as they existed before 1896
will place some or all of these last
four states in the Republican column.
But the same causes and trend which
would place all these states in the Re-
publican column, should with equal
probability place Delaware, New Jer-
sey and West Virginia in the Demo-
cratic column. These three states
have 22 electoral votes. These states
all voted for Mckinley both times,
but prior to that all three voted for
Cleveland in 1892, in 1888 and in 1884,
and Hancock in 1880, and Tilden in
1876. They were consistently Demo
cratic until 1896. They were never
doubtful. The trend in Delaware and
New Jersey since 1896 has been
strongly toward the Democratic party,
but neither state has fully recovered
West Virginia has remained strongly
Republican since 1896 and so far has
shown no disposition to return to its
old allegiance. There has been large
increase in the population of the state
and no way of determining the politi.
cal views of the increase and therefore
it is impossible to say how its people