The Indianapolis journal. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1867-1904, 1904-03-01
A FINANCIAL COMPARISON
STOCK MARKET Is DRIFTING INTO
LAST YEARS CONDITION.
Railroad Earnings for First Half of
Prospects for Good Net Returns.
pecia1 10 lac Indiananolls journal.

Special to the Indianapolis Journal
NEW YORK. Feb. 2s.-In not a few respects
the stock market is drifting into a condition re-
sembIing last years. and the likeness is even
closer in the of the foreign markets No
body here or abroad is disposed to buy stocks
because Of their improving prospects. nor very
many who are not under compulsion to sell them
because they are deteriorating. Neither prospect
is clear enough for positive opinion and action.
But professional traders for lack Of real bust
ness occupy themselves in guessing which way
the market cat will jump in estimating the
probable source and motive of such real buying
or selling is discoverable. And there is no
unprofessonal business. The market which re-
suits is concerned curiousy little with ordinary
factors Of values. and disproportionately with
diagnosis of the business done.
The size of the short interest and the number
expected run before it's turn, favorite
topics in brokers' offices where customers chairs
about earnings. and what rate of yield ought to
be expected from sound properties in a normal
money market.
There is in which such market con-
sideratons are just as legitimate as studies Of
Values for markets have their moods and rules
just as certainly values have their laws For
those who profit by trading a good market judg
ment is even more essential than correct esti-
mates of values Values nothing TO trad
or of delaying more than day or two to buy
what he has sold without owning.
The very point is that the market has alb
normally divorced itself from values as deter
mined by yield in proportion to the capital avail
able to absorb them, with sellers necessities.
In our market the number OF leading
properties which have reduced their dstribu-
ton of profits TO owners could be counted on
the fingers But the fall is universal; although
a
ment or hrst-class issues which have fallen a
dozen to twenty points with practically no
prospect of diminished security of principal or
yield OF income. They are sacrificed by forced
chases of expected supply of the quality
at a lower price. or the floating supply is In ex-
cess of the demand. and buyers prices rule in
stead Of sellers demands.
At such times it is instructive to note whether
the rise or the fall is the more persistent.
with the advance or the decline. and whether
the turns of the market obey such considera-
tions or alter with apparent changes of intrinsic
when market students are concerned more with
the market a whole than with the merits
adapted for the study of AVERAGES and charts
which throw no light o on values indivduaIiy.
but are aid to estimating the trend of bust
ness which has lost its bearings and is in pro-
1t is aliunde to- say that such lore is worthy
only of gamblers. 1t serves their turn, to be
sure. but il will also avail to save bona fde
they need, or OF accepting less than might be
had If the sales placed on a rising in
stead of a falling movement
The principal railroad systems have now re-
ported their net earnings for the first half OF
the fiscal year. The results a whole are
good. the best scored, but the tendency
to decrease has become noticeable that
the outlook for the full fiscal year is much in
question Some good judges expect the effect
of trade reaction upon earnings TO show more
plainly in the next few months. in keeping
with presidents for declining railroad earnings
following business depression.
But the possibilities in the present situation
are governed by the difference in conditions OF
the present and of a year The general
advance in wages to railroad men, which was
inaugurated by the Pennsylvania Railroad ir
| November 1902 was quite generally in force
on Jan. 1. 1903. During the past six months
! cluded the higher wage scale but have com.
/ lower.
Therefore. expenses in 1904 will not be so like.
| ly TO increase by comparison with 1903 and net
| earnings, OF course, will reap the benefit. II
| Is also fair to say that the cost OF supplies 2
! year ago was approximately at the highest point
| ever reached. Although still high, the cost OF
| almost all articles entering into railroad con
sumption is now lowered. and the tendency in
| that direction may be expected TO continue Ado
| TO this fact that betterment OUTLAWS are seeine
general curtailment. and the argument for fail
| net returns, even with lowered gross, becomes
| quite reasonable.