Ottumwa tri-weekly courier. [volume] (Ottumwa, Iowa) 1903-1916, 1904-03-31
cLEws ON TRADE OUTLOOK.

Henry Clews declares that the spec.
ulative activity, which had been pent
up for months burst out with surpris-
ing strength Immediately after the
merger decision and the Sully cotton
failure. Both of these factors had
caused an element of uncertainty in
the market and their elimination
brought about the release of forces
that had long been waiting for lust
such an opportunity. Regarding the
collapse of the cotton corner Mr.. Clews
says:
The collapse of-the powerful manip-
ulation in cotton, while disastrous to
those closely connected, will be bene-
tc1al when the aftermath is over; in
asmuch as this great staple will be
ruled once more by natural and not
artificial influences which seriously in
1ured both mill owners and operators
In all parts of the world. The south
would have inevitably secured good
prices for cotton this year without the
aid OF these dangerous speculative OBJ
creations, Simply because the worlds de-
mands We're overtaking supplies which,
so far as the American crop was
concerned, were strictly moderate.
By a policy of exaggeration and exces-
siye speculation prices were carried to
a dizzy height, the effect of which will
be an unusual increase in acreage and
less profitable prices to growers for
next crop than they would have re-
celVed under the ordinary sway of
supply and demand. The south would
have enjoyed a greater, more per-
manent and more evenly distributed
prosperity without the cotton corner
OF 1904, which has produced nothing
except forcible arrangement, the
effects of which will be worldwide.
not to speak of the immense stimulus
given to developing other cotton re.
gions as competitors with America.
NO less concise and comprehensive
is his statement regarding the merger
decision and it's probable effect on
market conditions:
The most important factor in the
market has, of course, been the mer.
ger decision. The powerful financiers
who devised that plan are wisely seek
ing other and more legitimate devices.
Some other way of giving the COM
munity of interest fixity will have to
be provided. Meanwhile, the North
ern Securities Company holdings are
to be distributed pro rata, and even
tually considerable part of the enor-
nous holdings of Northern Pacific and
Great Northern which have been lock-
ed up in the merger will be re-
leased. OF course, the disruption of
the merger means temporary dis
turbance of the balance of power Of
more or less seriousness between great
rival corporations. Just what the fin
al outcome will be is not easy to de-
termlne, though the sudden activity in
Union Pacific was suggestive and
created renewed fears of contest for
control
In the general outlook Mr.. Clews is
of the opinion that favorable elements
predominant. The general recovery
in the iron trade is taken as one Of
the most encouraging signs. Mr..
Clews points to the fact that during
the past month the prices of iron and
steel have been advanced materially
and many of the furnaces and mills
which have been idle for months are
again resuming operations. Benefit
to the textile industries will probably
follow from cotton being again gov
erned by natural forces. Easy money
is also taken as a favorable sign and
it is expected that this will continue
until the crop moving demands again
assert themselves.
The most disturbing factor in the
present outlook as seen by Mr.. Clews
is the Russian war, with the
possibility that war loan will be
made by either of the powers involved.
He does not believe that either Rus
sian or Japanese bonds will be taken
to any great amount in this market,
still he sees that their issue might
precipitate the selling of Americans
in foreign markets and cause tempo
rary depression here.