Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1904-07-12
THE PUBLIC WARNED
CHIEF MOORE ON LoNG-RANGE
WEATHER FoRECASTING.
Declares That the Practice is Mislead-
ing and Discredits Work Of
Honest Investigators.

That the government weather bureau is
not responsible for the story that long,
range weather forecasts are legitimate
part of the scientific work of that bureau
is the assurance of Willis l.. Moore, chief
of the bureau and a weather prophet of
long years experience. Prof. Moore says
these stories are the work of persons af-
fiicted with vivid imaginations and ire
sponsible consciences, and, furthermore,
that the weather bureau never attempted
to foretell the weather weeks in advance
and was unlikely to make any such at
tempt in the near future.
He says the bureau condemns rather
than promotes any such work, and wishes
the American public to distinctly under
stand that the weather bureau is not con-
nected with any meteorologists or weather
Projectors who are in the habit of pre-
tending to foretell the weather for any
great length of time in advance. 1t is
hard enough. said Prof. Moore, to fore
tell 1t twenty-fOur hours, and to try to
hit the nail on the head for days or even
weeks ahead would be ridiculous.
Chief Moore's Instructions.
Two circulars sent from the weather
bureau to officials in charge of local bu-
larly interesting at this time and in con-
nection with the stories of long-range
weather forecasting. The first follows:
Sir: 1t is the opinion of the leading me-
teorologists of the world that public in
terests are injured by the publication of
so-called long-range weather forecasts,
especially by such predictions as relate to
severe storms. floods. droughts and other
atmospheric phenomena of dangerous or
damaging character and the persistent eff.
forts of certain men to foist their predic-
tions upon the public for personal gain
deemed advisable fairly and temporarily
to counterast the influence of those whom
we believe to be preying upon the credulity
of the public
Some of these men may be honest and
may. In their ignorance, attach undue i'm
portance to storms that may accidentally
coincide in time of occurrence with Ger.
tain relative positions of the planets OF
with changes in the phases and positions o..
the moon, or with periods of Increase OF
decrease In sun spots, or apparent varia-
tons In the solar intensity. Men of this
class find that for which they sincerely
seek, they mark when they hit and never
marx when the miss, and the occurrence of
a storm within the broad area of the United
states and at times within much broader
areas on or near the day for which they
nave predicted storm confirms in their
minds the value of their system of pre-
diction. f
Disinterestedness Doubted
Ihey may believe that they have dis
covered physical law or a meteorological
PRINCIPLE that has not been revealed to as
tronomers, meteorologists or any other
class OF scientific investigators, but the
publication of predictions that by reason
OF thelr absolute inaccuracy are calculated
10 De positively injurious to agricultural.
commercial and other industrial interests
casts serious doubt upon the honesty Of
,heir purpose and upon their asserted dis
interested devotion to the public welfare
Such publications bring the science of me-
teorology into disrepute and cannot there
1ore' be made in response to a desire to
advance that science along useful lines,
ana they retard the work of the honest in
FeStigator, through whose efforts only can
gains be made in fundamental knowledge
of the causation of weather that will JUS
tlfy forecasts for a month or a season in
advance
AS result of my personal verifcation
OF the work of long-range weather fore
casters, some of whom have so far gained
the confidence of the rural press as to re-
celVe liberal compensation for their pre-
dictions. I am led to the conclusion that
these forecasters knowingly perpetrate
fraud and do positive injury to the public
at large. 1t is to be regretted that so many
newspapers not only give space to these
harmful predictions but actually pay for
them. Forecasts of this description can
properly be classed with advertisements of
quack medicines-they are both harmful
in the extreme.
Limitations Of Forecasting.
Il hope the time will come when it will
be possible to forecast the weather for
coming seasons, to specify in what respect
the coming month will conform to or de-
part from the weather that is common to
the month or season, but that time has not
yet arrived, and believe that you will be
best serving the public interests when
without indulgng in personalities or men,
tioning any long-range forecaster by name,
you teach the community you serve the
limitations of weather forecasting and
warn 1t against impostors. Your local
press should, and doubtless will, cooper
ate with you in this endeavor. Very re-
spectfully, WILLIS L. MOORE,
Chief United States Weather Bureau"
Prof CARROTS Circular Letter
The second of these circular letters reads
as follows:
Sir: Referring to a recent letter from the
central Office on the subject of longrange
forecasts, l am directed by the chief of bu-
reau to say that his letter on the subject
was written with the view of pitching the
tone and sketching the outline of the argu-
ments that should be made by local officials
to convince the people of the fallacy of
long-range forecasts. The letter was writ
ten with the view of assisting you. and
not for the purpose of limiting your discus
sion of the subject, except to direct that
our opposition be not to any one person,
but to the whole system of long-range
forecasts 1t is not the wish to stultify
your expressions, or to put words in your
mouth, but you may supplement your own
argument with such part of the letter as
you may desire to use
Section directors should see that their
rural press is correctly informed in regard
to this important matter, and should try
to have the newspapers of their state that
use our crop reports and other publica-
tons print articles that will teach the peo-
pie the truth about forecasts and storm
warnings instead of misleading their read
ers by publishing the predictions of fakirs
Very respectfully