Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1904-10-19
IMPARTIAL ESTIMATE
Roosevelt Must Garry New
York by Over $4,000
OR STATE TICKET FAILS
OBSERVATIONS OF AN UNBIASED
POLITICAL OBSERVER.
Only Two Names Prominent - Roose-
velt and Herrick-Great Issue Con-
tinued Good Times.

Special from Staff Correspondent.
NEW YORK. October 19.-I am permitted
to present herewith the report of an I'M
partial unbiased and capable observer who
has just returned from ten days trip up
state to ascertain the facts concerning the
campaign l know the man and will stand
sponsor for his report. He says II President
Roosevelt does not carry the state on the
electoral ticket by more than $1,000, he will
not pull the state ticket through. If he
carries it by a plurality in excess of that
figure, he will save Mr.. Higgins and the
state ticket.
II am convinced, as result of my in
vestigation, that Roosevelt Is as certain 10
carry this state for the national ticket as
that the sun rises tomorrow. l am not
ready to say what his plurality will be, but
1t is cinch they cannot beat him.
II have spent ten days in the upstate
counties. There are only two names men
toned among the voters-Presdent Roose-
welt and Judge Herrick. They don't care
anything about Parker; they don't care
anything about Higgins. That is. mean, in
an affirmative sense. Judge Parker is re-
garded as a colorless, well-meaning gentle
man of irreproachable character, but the
politicians are dealing only with the men
who have red blood and iron in their veins,
and these men are Roosevelt and Herrck
Much Ticket-Cutting.
1.-The republican state ticket is going to
be cut frightfully. 1t is kind Of stam-
pede That is the only way it can be de-
scribed. Men don't stop to reason 1t out
always, but say they can't stand for Odell-
ism, although they may not be able to ex-
plain exactly what is their idea of Odell-
cta 70 Or &c in diSrpDute. and
this is the only way to explain it.
yesterday 1 took lunch at Troy with
Charles S. Francis, editor of the Troy
Times; Ex-Governor Black and Senator
Fairbanks Mr. Francis ventured the
prophecy that the state would go for
Roosevelt by 100000 or 175000. Governor
Black voiced his assent. Senator Fairbanks
said nothing but looked pleased.
1.-The truth is Roosevelt has captured the
people, horse foot and dragoon. This state
is emnently practical. You don't find men
indulging in theories or speculations on
government to any considerable extent.
Their daily game is one of delivering the
goods 1t is true in politics as well as IN
business They look to Roosevelt and the
republican party to deliver the goods.
The Issue a Practical One.
INV observation has been that the great
issue in New York is the material, practical
one of Are we to have continued good times
tr not? Since the days of Mckinley ana
Mark Hanna the common, everyday people
have come to regard the republican party
as the political exponent OF prosperity.
There is no use trying to argue them out
Df that idea unless you have the goods 10
back your talk They have the goods under
republicanism and they are just brutal
enough and materialistic enough to identify
the one with the other.
.When I read Judge Parker's Philippine
speech on Saturday, recalled the fact that
in all of my tour up to that time had not
heard the Philippines discussed by either
democrat or republican. Why, 1t is set
tied question. They cleaned it up IN the
presidential election of 1900 and the con-
gressional election of 1902. They are i'm
patient of it's discussion now.
II will confess was somewhat surprised
to see the apathy concerning Judge Parker
| had expected more enthusiasm among
democrats for the national ticket But, 1t Is
a fact that the judge has not awakened the
democrats. He does not put single strong,
yiril issue before them. Herrick, on the
other hand, does. He makes an issue of
Odellism 1t is something they can grasp,
NlIdI tullly IL iCPA SSSheS q SSSNSAAA ~AANS
regard as evil.
Don't Relish Hard Names.
And by they / mean republicans as
we'll as democrats. The republican party up
state the party of Thurlow Weed, Of Conk-
Ing of Arthur, Of Platt, do not relish be-
ing called thieves and grafters. 1t sticks in
their craw, and when their neighbors throw
up to them the allegations of the opponents
they don't like it, all the more because they
can't lay hold of anything definite to fight
and refute.
Now, this Roosevelt strength is some
thing to marvel at. know one county up
state that at best is only 5000 republican.
1t is going for Roosevelt by 10000. Demo-
Gratis in large numbers will vote for Roose-
welt. and when 1 have investigated their
reasons 1 found the same in all cases,
namely that he stands for something def
mite, positive, radical, If you will, yet
American, which they like. and Judge
Parker does not stand for anything that
Trey can put their thumbs on.
"rhe young men are for Roosevelt. Fam
lilies are divided, and l found many cases
where there were old-time democrats whose
sons were breaking away from their faith
ers They like Roosevelts style and are go
| ing to vote for him. much to the scandal
| and disgust of the family traditions
Young Men for Roosevelt.
II recall one case in an upstate town of
q, 900 inhabitants where the young men
had this summer organized an athletic club.
| 1t was sporting club pure and simple at
| the outset, and yet the other night some
republican got up in meeting and proposed
| that the club declare for Roosevelt. 1t
carried without dissenting vote. and now
those youngsters are hustling around among
| their fellows to swing more into line.
But 1t would be futile to disguise the
| fact that the republicans are leaving the
state ticket In droves. In my opinion It all
| depends upon the President whether Hig-
| gins wins. II Roosevelt gets smashing
| big plurality he will drag Mr.. Higgins By
main force to victory. II he does not. 1t is
| all up with the republican state ticket.
| The subscriber is disinclned to present an
anonymous interview as q rule, but the au-
| thor of this whose name cannot be given.
! Is yet In a position of knowledge, Judgment
| and information sufiicient. in my opinion,
to have his views accepted even Without
being named. y. q -