The Montgomery advertiser., 1904-02-07
RUSSIA AND JAPAN TURN
 FROM DIPL OMACY TO SWORD

geographical obstacies so great as to make decisive hostilities impossible.
 M. Delcasse, in personal conversation with members of the diplomatic corps does not conceal the gravity of the sit uation, but he holds that even if diplo- matic rupture occurs, this does not mean an immediate outbreak of hostilities. Ont of the leading diplomats asked NJ. Del. casse whether he considered war d mat. ter of a few days.
 "On the contrary" the minister re- piled. T; do not believe it likely to oc- cur for month or two, even should the negotiations completely faii.'
 This accords with the view of other leading officials and diplomatists who hold that the failure of the negotiations would be followed by period of strate. gic preparation, of raising large war funds and of maneuvering for position The raising of war funds is considered here as being one of the most vital questions, should the negotia tions fail Therefore, leading American official sought to learn whether Russia wound be able to issue loan and raise more money here.
 He consulted with one of the most em- inent financiers of France, connected with the Bank of France, and this brought out some surprising statements concern ing the enormous indebtedness Russia has already incurred here. According to tnis financier, Russia's four loans total the colossal sum of s. .4OO. .o0O, 600, most of which came from France. Russia has practically used the funds in building the trans-Siberian Railroad, the new fleet and internal improvement of wa terways. The trans-Siberian line alone has proved terrible drain. the deficit last year reaching $2O.OOO,OO0 Therefore, in conflict. Russia must have more sim ews of war and 1t is the conclusion of the financier from the foregoing facts that she Is not likely to place a further loan in Paris which heretofore has been her chief reliance. ..
 On the other hand the diplomatist conl- pared this with the announcement to- day from Tokio that Japan has succeed ed in securing voluntary subscriptions of N.0OO.000 towards her war funds.
 That would run war for about one day" said the diplomatist. With Rus sia unable to get more money here and Japan unable to get it at home it is be- lieved that. If breakdown in the nego- tiations occurs. each side will take a long breath before fighting"
 One Of the officers of trust company Of New York. who was recently here, reached the same ccnclusion-that Rus sia would be unable to make a loan-af- ter he had personally discussed the sub ject with number of leading authori- ties on finance.
 A novel view Is taken in a certain important diplomatic quarter that the most effective means of preserving the peace Is for both Russia and Japan to claim great diplomatic victory, thus satisfying home sentiment and subduInR the war spirit.
 This view finds rather serious accent ance at the foreign ol.lce, where the of- ncials say that if the negotiations hap pily result in peace, both sides will claim a great diplomatic triumph as a means of satisfying local sentiment. This Is given by the officials as one of the main reasons which accountg gAvary con. cerning the terms of the various notes. as 1t Is said that each side has adopted construction calculated to satisfy its own people.
 One of the most prominent of the Rus sian oficials here; said this evening that deflnite knowledge concerning the con- tents of the Russian reply would be com municated to the world certainly by Mon day. This official said:
 War can be avoided if Japan Is will ing. for substantial concessions have heen made, upon which the negotiations can continue. Russia is prepared for event ualities and. rupture of tile negotia- tons, not as ostentatiously as Japan. but none the less effectively"