The Montgomery advertiser., 1904-08-26

Indicated production of States on ba- sis of counties reporting season tso4- Florida. ss.7o4; Georgia, 1,45366s; In dian Territory, 327,110: Louisiana, 1.o27.os4; Mississippi, 1.715.oS4; North Carolina. 256.65s; Oklahoma. 2s1.26o; 3s2,41o; Texas, S.1ss.a74; others, 6s.07s. Total. l2,027,931.
 It will be noticed that last month my correspondents, under date of July 20, reported an average condition with in. 2-1o of l per cent of the Govern nfent report as of five days later. and that both as to the average of the en- tire belt and the condition by States my correspondents and the Government were closely in accord.
 From the foregoing figures. 1t will be admitted that all prospects of a bumper crop in the South for the com for the fifth successive season the world is confronted with an insufiiciency in it's cotton supply.
 Various reasons are assigned for the deterioration which has so invariably set in during the final months of the plants development for the past five years. UnquestionablN the first in i'm portance is the boil weevil. which now age in Texas. The impairment of the seed. the exhaustion of the land and the insuffici iency of labor are other the ories upon which five successive crop
 
 It is possible that the seed impair ment theory has basis of truth. It is probable that the exhaustion of land has not been counterbalanced by the use of fertilizers, but the operation of neither of these influences is suscept- ible of statistical proof. There can be no question. however, as to the fnsuf- flicency of labor. and I submit the fol- lowing facts as a sufficient explanation of the growing disparity between the acreage and cotton production of the Southern States these figures are | based upon the census returns of 1900 the average annual increase in the popula ton for the decade having been applied to the figures of 1900 in order to approximate the facts of 1904. Popu- latiopT and acreage Southern States: 1S90-91, 19,464.617; 1900-1. 23,557, ,1S0;
 increase ten years. 31 per cent. 1904 ! 31.731. 900; increase fourteen years, 63 per cent.
 Total population-1Sso, 15,s75.S55. | 1890 19,766,065; increase ten years 24
 per cent. 1904. 24.1s9,2o6; indicated increase fourteen years. 32 per cent. Rural population (presumably agri- 751; increase ten years, 19.1 per cent. Indicated 1904. 16.451.753; increase furteen years, 25.6 per cent. Urban population in towns of 1000 or over (presumably non-agriculturaD -1S90, 2.S73.104. 1900. 4.159.325; in
 crease ten years. 44S per cent. h. dicated 1904 4,737.453; increase fourteen years. 64S per cent.
 Total negro population (urban and rural distribution not obtainable)- 1890. 6.14e.201. 1900 7,242,301; increase ten years, IS per cent. Indicated 1904 7,633.3S5; increase fourteen years. PAS per cent.
 These figures show that in the past fourteen years the cotton acreage of the South has increased 63 per cent vxrht hn ftn md negro, has increased only 25 per cent It Is not practicable to determine what proportion of the rural population of the cotton States is engaged in cotton culture.
 In the ten years ending 1900. the number of manufacturing establish ments in the cotton states had increas- ed from 36,334 in 1890 to 70,27s fin 1900. or s3 per cent. and the capital SO em- ployed from $4o2,S53,310 to $739,s75. .163, or 97.1 per cent.
 As the increase in the manufactur- ing industries of the South has been ton acreage, 1t is possible that the dis proportion between the rural popula- ton available for the culture of cotton and the increase in acreage is even greater than the above figures indi- cate but assuming that one in five of the population Is engaged in cotton cul- ture, which is very liberal estimate, 1t would appear that In 1890 19,469,- 000 acres of cotton were cultivated by 2620, 900 people. or an average of 1-2 acres a person. while in 1904 31.731, 900 acres must be cultivated by 3,29S.000 people, or an average of nearly ten acres per, person. From this state ment only one conclusion can be drawn, namely: That the cultivation is less efficient and the yield per acre there fore smaller.
 When we come to study the rela- tionship between the increase in the negro population and the cotton acre. age this view of the case is even more impressive.
 The economic condition that led to the war of the Confederacy was the idea that the control of the negro was the South. It Is not improbable that this theory Is about to find it's economic proof. The negro alone can cultivate cotton effectively under the hot South ern suns.
 In the past fourteen years the cotton crop of the South has been increased by l2260.000 acres or 63 per cent. and the negro population in the same period has increased only 1.493.1S4, or PAS per cent. It is generally admitted that the tendancy in the South on the part of the more intelligent negroes is towards northern migration of resi- dence in cities and employment in the factories, mines, lumber camps and railroads. The residium of negro labor available for the cultivation of cotton is tAsfefore not only out of proportion