The Montgomery advertiser., 1904-12-03
THE FIGURES,
Twelve Million Bales of Cotton No
 Pieth0rfc.


 Piethoric.
 The American Cotton Manufacturer published at, Charlotte, N C., says:
 TO the bull and the bear in the cotton pit, correctly forecasting the yield of cotton merely means the making of money out of the less successful prog nosticator.
 TO the manufacturer, carrying on A legitimate business and covering abso- ute sales of goods with purchases of either spots or futures, abnormal spec- ulatlon means unsettled markets. with their attendant worry and uncertainty
 one well-known speculator took his third hop last week in spite of his nu- merous and widely circulated uuondam m propnecies. All pronounced speculative movements are primarily founded on the probable number of bales the crop year will produce Predictions are first based upon the acreage planted and the percentage of condition, and the market Is pushed up or hammered down on this information. Just no weverybody con- nected with the trade Is passing his guess on the, ginner's report, the first lot of data being forgotten.
 Very soon the first estimate of prob- able yield by the Department of Agri- culture will be given out and the pres ent groundwork for the "experts" pro- vided by the Census Bureau will be relegated to the limbo of forgotten things. until about this time next year when the figures will be resurrected and made to do duty for another brief period.
 Flung in with Government heires | are those provided by experts" big and little, and the lot is so hodge podged that one may stick in a fork and extract any sort of forecast one may need. For two seasons many manufacturers | have been much misled by the Aux of l figures. and this year a 12,0OO, ,0O0-bale crop Is generally said to mean low | prices, supposedly because this might | mean supply greater than the taking capacity of the mills. Up to Septem- | Der 1st last the mills. took the entire | l9O3-O4 crops of 10.123,6S6 bales. besides | reducing the visible supply by some 6l.0O0 bales. This year picking began | so much earlier than usual that 300, 900 bales of this seasons yield were pick | ed ginned and taken in August, so that | the actual spinners' consumption last year was 10,474,6S6 bales.
 Owing partly to extremely high prices brought about by speculative manipulation. but more especially to an absolute dearth of supplies, the mills curtailed their usual working hours to the extent of not less than 1000, 900 bales. Add to this the admitted aver age annual increase in the worlds need | for cotton of 100000 bales and we find | that, granting that the mills will work l full time during the present crop-year, the normal needs for this period of American cotton will be about 11,S75,- 900. The present outlook indicates a more than normal demand, as news comes to hand of unusual activity in England and on the Continent New mills are being projected and old ones, long idle. started up. Then again from I the available supply for this year must be taken the 3O0.O00 August bales which really passed into consumption in that l month.
 | It Is evident. therefore, that even a crop of 12,000,000 bales will not be more than enough to go round. The record of some large wheat crops will perhaps be seen in this years cotton product, a record breaking crop com ing into a depleted market and com manding prices higher than those here- tofore brought by smaller crops.