The daily morning journal and courier., 1904-10-12
HAYASHI ON VAR SITUATION
DOES NOT THINK RUSSIAN AD-
 EANoE 4 BLUFE

Japanese Minister to Great Britain
 Deprecates RIdicuIe of English Press
 Change of Tactics Seems Quite Sim
 pIe--A Point In Kuropatkin's Favor
 That He Was Ready, or Even
 Thought He Was Ready, First.
 London, Oct. 1.-The British govern ment is closely watching to discern the cause and effect of General Kuropat- kin's forward movement. Baron Hay ashi, the Japanese minister here. con- veyed such information as he possessed to Foreign Minister Lansdowne on Monday. Baron Hayashi deprecates the ridicule that is being showered by the Eglish press on General Kuropat- kin's proclamation. aEven the assump- ton of an initiative.'' said the Japanese minister, must benefit the Russian forces. I have no more belief that Gen eral Kuropatkin's move is bluff than believe that Marshal oyama's lack of aggression is due to an attempt to lure Kuropatkin into trap. The situation really seems quite simple. Oyama, adopting the most cautious method, has been fortifying, step by step, and never advancing unless he was able to en- sure the absolute safety of his constant .lengthening lines of communication. He must have had enormous difficulty in bringing up sufficient supplies and ann munition for his large army, which was depleted greatly after the battle of Liao Yang. If he had been ready, 0ya- ma would doubtless have taken that advantage whuch belongs in all warfare to the agressor and attacked Kuropat- kin at Mukden. It is a point in Ku- ropatkin's favor that he was ready, or even thought he was ready, first. About a week from now there should be de- cisive engagement, and 1t is likely to occur at Liao Yang or on the Taitse river. Skirmishes will take place mean while, but unless l am very much mis- taken, the Japanese will not make a determined stand until Kuropatkin reaches the scene of his recent defeat. Our lines of communication and our supplies and ammunition could scarcely have reached perfection to any point north of Liao Yang. It does not matter much whether Kuropatkin has assum- ed the offensive upon orders from St. Petersburg or by his own desire: he has taken a tremendous risk, and 1t Is not for me to say whether he was jus tiled or not. Is is all very well for critics to say that the Russian com mander leaves his communications open to attack, but only a very large force can adequately disturb such lines as Kuropatlxin possesses. I hear on good authority that he has got men standing almost shoulder to shoulder along the railway. I would not be surprised If Kuropatkin, instead of continuing a frontal advance, should launch the whole of his army against General Ku- roki's thanking force. It would be a bold stroke and precipitate . great struggle
 but the Russians are not accustomed to mountain fighting, and would be handi- capped even though superior In num- bers. Whatever happens, whether Ku- ropatkin is allowed to march compara- lively unopposed to the Taitse river
 where Oyama has been fortifying, oi whether he diyerts his army in an en- deavor to crush Kuroki, the result oi the present phase of the Manchurlar campaign means much, and perhaps is almost as vital to one side as the other.' No fears are expressed in Japanese or British military circles that Field Marshal Oyanna, after carefully en. entrenching Liao Yang, will not be able Ito hold the positions that he captured
 A curious divergence of opinion ex. ists, however, between Japan and, Brit. 1 ish authorities as to the purpose of tht Russian Baltic fleet. Japanese diplo
 mats and special naval representative: I in Europe have consistently believed that Russia never seriously intended
 dispatching the ships to the Far East ] The British admiralty, with perhaps
 equally good information, is now con
 vinced that the Baltic fleet is now go I ing to the seat of war, though leading British officers state they Sre unable tt
 see what the ships can accomplish
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