New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1904-10-19

but with a population whose energy. intelligence
and education have built, out Of most dlscouraS-
No. conditions a vast industrial organization
which IS our one real competitor IN the MAJ hetS
of the world. If viii accept from the yer
mans something of their scientlfc melhous lllTiE
carafulneSs their thOrOughneSS and their VIII
Ingness for hard work, and bring such qualltles
TO bear upon our own resources. the hgures
which l have been quoting possibilities OF the
future will Yet look small.
IN A SOUND FINANCIAL POSITION
These statements are generalties intended TO
apply only over considerable periods. That the
next ten years is 10 see to some extent a repe-
tition OF the development of the last ten Is, L
think fair presumption. Whether that up
ward movement has already started or whether
il Is To start next month or next year DO hot
profess 10 know, and nothing that nave ssiIu
should he taken indicating the fixing or
definite date in regard to returning prosperity
Business to-day IS unsatisfactory IN many re-
SHeCtS. The memories ana me soF" SpotS " ilcii
the declines OF the last two years have left VIII
make many people slow in accepting the con-
ciusiOn that ready for another great
commercial advance. We are always in danger
Of OVERRIDING. and we may for the moment. per-
haps, have already made that error for prices
have shown most substantial recovery re-
coVery certainly in advance of what would be
warranted 10y the present actual conditions. II
IS safe 10 say. however that we are to-day III a
sound financial position. BANK reserves are
ample-at least national bank reserves are
Bank loans and discounts are not of Charac-
ter 10 offer grounds for any general criticism
We have probably fully paid off the foreign in
debtedneSs in the shape Of finance bills which
two or three years had reached large to-
tails. We in position to command interna-
tional credits and 10 bring gold 10 strengthen our
reserves If we should need il. l believe there IS no
danger ahead Of interference with business de-
Velopment a result of the Presidential cleo
ton We have corn crop that is worth SlGm-
0000o0 cotton crop worth SGDOO0o1No. and
a wheat crop worth Sil2.Wb.O0i. The value OF
these three crops alone this year IS S2Ol2NtD-
600 which compares with the value of these
same crops ten years ago Of Sl,O6I.OOoOoo.
nlrrga1e 10 n
finance. and the memory Of the last two years,
reminding Us Of the results OF the mistakes
made at the height of the boom period, is still
keenly enough in our minds TO warrant the be
lief that viii administer our financial affairs
with a fair degree of common sense for some
time to come We have learned that there is
not new political economy. hut that. In spite
OF our vast resources. our growing wealth and
our recuperative power, we must obey the same
old sound laws OF finance and commerce that
have long ruled
am convinced that the possibilities Of an
other great business expansion are at hand. but
connected with those great possibilities are
great responsibilities Those responsibilities
are largely on your shoulders The bankers Of
this country will. in the wisdom Of the admins
tration Of their trust or in their lack Of wis
dom, have great influence the beginning. the
extent and the length Of this next period OF
prosperity.
WARNING AGAINST OvERsPECULATION.
cannot too strongly emphasize my belief in
the Importance Of having our banks and fnan-
clai interests prepared 10 play their proper part
in the return of prosperity and the further de-
velopment of business. We need banking laws
that wiae ard banking administration that
is wise. Encoura seTent to a wild speculative
boom at this time. when Improvement is justi-
fled more by hopes and possibilities than by inn
mediate actual conditions, might set The whole
period OF recovery back month, six months.
a year. 4 great speculative boom is not
what is neeGCd. 1t is indeed one Of the special
dangers. Ii bankers in the great centres are
unconserVative In the inducements they hold
out 10 secure deposits. ana accumulate great
stocks Of money which will loan at such low
rates as TO encourage unduly speculative
spirit, they Will strike blow at this returning
prosperity which may long delay its coming
There is another danger in the banking sitUa-
ton. During the height Of the last commercial
expansion people SO lost their heads as to ex-
cuse their extravagant and foolish actions by
saying that there was new political economy,
that the old laws no longer applied under the
new conditions. They were wrong lamentably
wrong And to-day Il thing for the bankers OF
this country TO remember is that there has been
discovered no new law of finance which makes
banKlng without reserves safe and conservative
A Dahk holding money repayable on demand
must keep fair proportion OF that money in It's
vaults The experience Of all financial history
points 10 that necessity. Whenever the law has
been violated disaster has ultimately followed
do not permit yourselves to believe that there
has been any new discovery I'm finance which
VIII saiely permit banking without reserves
l DelleEe that the conditions are again favor
able 10 a return Of prosperity I believe II "a
tline Tor optimism. So long as we remember In
hunoleness our mistakes and hold close tn a
proper conservatism, the course Of financial
events seems likely TO follow only one general
direction; and that is toward Improvement TOW
ard expanding business and toward better tines