The Globe-republican., 1904-05-19
ABOUT WEATHER PROPHETS.
Long Range Predictions Injurious
Saws Chief of Weather Bureau.

Emigh Of the weather bureau:
1t Is my desire to express lhe appreola'
ton Of the Weather Bureau for the coll
tidence aud almost absolute reliance OF
the local public in our daily forecastSsnd
special cold wave and storm warnings.
While in this climate Of sudden changes,
occasional surprises to the best equipped
of scientific forecasterS are inevitable,
special pride Is taken in furnishing the
most reliable and longest range forecasts
permitted by the science Of ineteorology
in Its present stage Of development
Though few in this locality huve not
already learned the utter worthlesslless
Of so-called long. range forecasts, The
following extracts from a letter recently
received from The chief Of The U. ),
Weather Bureau, Prof. Willis L. Moore,
will be of interest to many and, per-
chance, of some benht to the community
iu general.
"lt is the opinion OF the Leading
msteorologlsts Of the world that public
interests are injured by the publication
Of so.caIlsd long-rauye forecasts, especi-
ally by such predictions as relate to se-
we're storms, floods, dronghts, and other
atmospheric phenomena Of a dangerous
or damaging character, and the persistent
efforts OF certain lnen to (olst their pre-.
dlctIOns upon the public, for personal
gain, have reached such proportions that
It Is deemed advisable to counteract the
influence Of those whom we believe to be
preying upon the credultty of the public
Some Of these men may be honest. and
may, in their ignorance, attach undue
importance to storms that may, accident
ally, coincide 10 time Of occurrence with
certain relative positions of the planets,
or with changes in the phases and posi-
tions Of the moon, or with the periods OF
increase Of decrease OF sunspots, or up.
parent variations In the solar intensity
Men of this class find that for which they
sincerely seek, they mark when they hit
and never mark when they miss, and the
occurrence Of a storm within the broad
area Of the United States, and, at times,
within much broader areas, ou or near
the day for which they haye predicted a
storm, confirms, in their minds, thevalue
Of their system Of prediction.
"rhey may believe that they have dis
covered q physical law or a meteorologl-
cal principle that has not been revealed
to the astronomers, meteOrOlosists, or
any other class of scientific Investigators,
but the publication Of predictions that,
by reason Of their absolute inaccuracy,
are calculated to be positively injurious
to agricultural. commercial, and other
industrial interests, casts serious doubt
upon the honesty of their purpose, and
upon their asserted dlsinterested devotion
to the public welfare, Such publications
bring the science OF meteorology into
dsrepute and can not, therefore, be made
in response to a desire to advance The
science along useful lines; and they re-
tard the work of the honest Investigators,
through whose efforts, only, can gains be
made in a fundamental knowledge Of the
causatlons of weather that will justify
forecasts for q month ORA season in ad-
vance.
"As a result Of my personal veriflca-
ton of the work of long-range weather
forecasters, | am led to the conclusion
that these forecasters knowingly perpe-
trate fraud and do positive injury to the
public at large. Forecasts Of this de-
scriptlon eau properly be classed with
advertisements Of quack medicines
they are both harmful in the extreme.
81 hope the time will come when II
will be possible to forecast the weather
for coming seasons, to specify In whal
respect the coming month or season will