The Greeley tribune., 1904-12-15
D0NTPAN0UT'
LONG RA NGE WEATHER FORE
CASTING UNRELIABLE
F. H. Brandenburg Punctures
Reputation of A Certain
Glass of Weather
Humbugs

From the earliest time interest in
the weather for approaching seasons,
in view of its bearing upon agricul-
tural and other pursuits, naturally
prompted efforts to predict the
weather. Note was made of the con-
ditions that preceded good or bad
weather, and the temperance of
certain conditions was taken as a
basis for predicting certain weather.
To these observations were added
others, such as the flight of birds,
the movement or action Of animals,
even aches and pains Of the human
body, and the like, resulting in the
acceptance as true of many Shrewd
and interesting observations, but
more that were absurd. Astronomi-
cal phenomena, such as phases of
the moon and the conjunction of the
planets, of all the most irrational,
were and are still credited by some
with control of the weather, not
withstanding persistent observations
ON the part of the leading astrono-
mers and meteorologists of the world
have demonstrated them to be devoid
of influence.
In modern times meteorology is
restricted to the department of nat
ural philosophy which treats of the
weather and as naturally the most
difficult and involved of sciences and
thus far incapable of reduction to
absolute accuracy, though efforts to
attain this end have accomplished
much. The United States and the
leading governments of the old world
are deyoting incalculable labor in
etfor Is to evolve from simultaneous
observations of daily weather condl-
tions, the laws which control and
Influence the weather, and such ad-
vance has been made in this regard
as to enable forecasts to be made ac-
curately for 4s hours in advance eX-
cept when affected by newly arising
conditions.
Every effort in scientific manner
is also being made to ascertain laws
that will make it possible to forecast
i'm general way, whether an ap-
proaching season will conform to or
depart from the weather common TO
such seasons; this time, however, mas
not vet arrived, but unlimited obser-
yations thus far made have demon
strated the impossibility of exceeding
a neriod of two or three days III ac-
curate forecasting for particular
date.
# is obvious that an accurate
forecast for particular date can
only be made from known coilui-
tions. The forecast itself Is a pre-
determination of continuance OF or
change in the conditions known 10
ox;st ot time of forecast. 1T Is
eoually obvious. therefore, that IL
a change in the atmospheric cohal-
tions occurs after the forecast anu
during the term thereof, not scleh-
titically anticipated at the 'ihe u
the forecast, the forecast ltseli hius'
fail. These changes i'll atmospheric
conditions are constantly occurring
during the term of forty-eigh' hou' m
forecast, and are certain to occur
NOT once. but frequently, durins
the term of long range forecast
and are wholly beyond human at'''c-
ipation or scientific knowledge.
This demonstrates cohciusiNe's
that. unless the long range forecas'efs
) are gifted with divine foresis'', anu
, foreknowledge of these changes
forecast for an indefinite periou ~
the future can possess no Nai''e, 'i'
IT'S yeritication is purely an acclue'''
or rather coincidence. lmpor'',.'
interests are affected by tile coi'''i'
tion of the weather, and Influenced
nv a foreknowledge of its conan ION
It is clear, therefore, that any io''s
range forecast, impossible III ha'u'.
must certainly do untold hatih' a
prophet has always and will ever a a,
tract attention. We are prone "
look into the future. Trading gen
orally for gain, upon THIS eien'ei. ~, ,