The San Francisco call., 1904-09-07
ADVERTISEMENTS.
COTTON.

Sept g. 19G4.-For the information Of many
inquiring friends publish the following in
man in the South criticising my recent pub
licly expressed change Of opinion In regard
the cotton market
may say that the DEVELOPMENTS OF to-day
do not lead me to modify my expectation OF
substantially lower prices for cotton during the
period when receipts are likely to be heaviest.
and 1 think that those who have cotton which
they must dispose Of within the next two
months will do wisely To accept current quota
tiOns.
NEW YORK. Sept. 3. 1904
Dear Sir: l reply particularly TO your letter
received to-day, in which you suggest that my
recent change Of front in regard to the prob
able course of the cotton market will deprive
me Of all following and any capacity of mar
ket leadership in future.
In reDIy thereto. beg to say. first that
do not ASPIRE to so-called market leadership.
and think il a detriment rather than advan-
tage SO far as IL affects Speculaeors money
making capacity. 1t burdens him with moral
responsibility for other peoples transactions
and renders II difficult for him to liquidate his
own. SO far as my change 6f opinion is con-
csrned. can only quote you Emersons trIte
remark that consistency is a weakness OF the
narrow minded" and tell you with Josh Bill
lings that "a wise man changes his opinions:
my opinions without. however, arrogatinS to
dom. II Is because 1 sometimes see that other
people are wiser than am that change my
TWO CLASSES OF FACTS.
To my thinking there are two classes
Of facts which the speculaeor In cotton
or In anything else. must be constantly
ical, which may be subdivided into facts abso-
lutte and facts deductive. The other class Is
facts physiological which, although sxcsedinR-
ly illusive are quite as-fmportant as mathe-
matical certainties in dealing with an article
In which the speculative public is as enormous
as that at present trading IN cotton.
You must bear in mind that there are prob
ably not less than ten thousand people actively
interested IN the cotton market at all times.
and IN periods Of great activity this number IS
largely increased. II each Of these persons
mand for or supply OF contracts thus created
represents an aggregate OF I, 200. 600 bales OF
cotton and is a force that Is simply overwheln-
ing IN It's Dreponderance Once set in action
By any leader 1t generally goes TO excesses that
overwhelm hin. and carry him and his follow
ing to disaster. witness the Sully Debacle OF
last spring II becomes. therefore. in my opirl-
ion, very important to anticipate correctly. II
possible the impulses which move or set In
action this irresisfibIe force OF public sDscS,I
tion. and il Is equally important that any ten
dency toward exaggerated opinion and hyster-
ical action shall be overcome.
GRADUALLY DECLINING PRICES
1t was because saw OF thought saw. that
a great many people who had no possible use
for cotton exceSt to resell It at advance.
had bought it In the form Of contracts, that
sold out my cotton Thursday morning last,
and Immediately thereafter advised the public
of the fact: and II Is because / now see,
think. see. that the Government report. is
sued on Friday. is certain to result In re-
unwilling 70 buy cotton for advance
until after some comparative decline in the
movement shall corroborate the reports OF crop
damage.
This cannot possibly occur within the next
two months ard I therefore think my expecta-
tion Of gradually declining prices for the next
two months Is sound You must bear IN mind
that the spinner IS the nnal arbiter OF cotton
values II there sDindles to use IL.
cotton would not be worth anything. however
small the crop. II was the withdrawal Of the
spinner that punctured last years speculation,
and in the face Of a report from the Govern
Iuent which 50 effectively negatives individual
renorts OF crop shortage, the spinner II not go
ing to buy cotton except at what he considers
a reasonable price
Meantime are face TO face with probably
the largest September and October receipts on
record and in my opinion the effect OF this
movement in combination with probably
slack demand from manufacturers VIII create
within the next sixty days beariah sentiment
so strong that II would ovsrwhelm either you
or myself should we attempt 70 oppoge r.
G5igned1 THEo. - PRICE