The St. Louis Republic., 1904-12-28

OF 81. LOui- which has been made by Rob
ert Moore ia" wrlI-kuown civil engineer
and member Of the Engineers club Of St.
| Louis.
Since the presentation % rhe paper
which made public the research and de
ductions Of Mr.. Moore. great attention hls
been attracted toward the paper in Incdi-
cal circles. from the fact that an en-
gineer had performed difficult piece OF
| statistical work which should have been
! done before by medical experts
| Special local interest is attached because
Of tho complete demonstration which has
! been made OF the gradual and steady do
crease in The death rat. III St. Louis and
the nearer ana constant approach to the
| possible minimum of mortality. Mr..
Moorc's paper has just been published in
| the Journal Of the Association of En-
gneering Societies.
Much comment has been aroused over
the method by which Air. Moore obtained
his figures from which the deductions were
made. the period over which his report
extends covering the years from $50 10
| 1891.
In introducing the subject Mr. Moore
| said
In the history Of a city few things are
more significant OF the conditions of life
| at any time Than is the death rate at that
| time, and n the fluctuations Of the NOR
| tality curve, based upon d series of such
| facts. is found the best index of the. sue
| cess or failure OF the citys inhabitants in
| the primary and universal struggle for eX-
| istcnce.
| But for our city 10 such curve has yet
| been constructed: and. the data n"ces-
| sdry for Its construction arc much scat-
! tered and comparatively inaccessible. it mas
| seemed to the writer worth while to col
| lcct and arrange them and call atteu-
| ton TO a few of the facts which they dis
| close. some of which are Of special inter
| est 10 the engineer.
| He then proceeds to nnumcrate his au-
| thOrities, which from 1871 10 1854 were cer-
| tain documents of the American Medical
| Association: tor the wear 1861 all the data
| were taken from the First Annual Report
| of the Board OF Health OF st. Louis" and
| all other data following the year 1867
| were takc:i from the annual reports Of tie
! Board OF Health which had been organized
| the preceding year. The death rate being
| dependent strictly UIpa the population, to
| secure a proper and certain basis from
| which to drduce the results MIR Moore
| used the graphic method of computing the
| population for tho in'ercensdl years. using
! the Government ceHsua for the decennial
| periods. as well as the city CenSuseS which
! had been made. ana In so doing secured
| what is acknowledged to be nearly acCu-
| rate estimates on the population of the
] CITY 10. tatU year since itfb. ii Is tnlS
! method. ingenious and wei! described in the
course of this paper. which has attracted
/ much attention.
With this basis established. Mr. Moore
| says:
| Applying the figures for the population
| to those giving the number of deaths. al
| ready referred to. the deaths per 1900
| have been computed for each year from
| 1871 TO 1905. inclusive. period OF sixty
| three years r.
1t may be remarked in passing that the
] To r-t-s
! can he sho"r for any American city
| Even for London exact records do not 90
farther back than 1888. The first series oc
! annual reports of the Registrar General Of
England was published in 1899
| The first thing TO strike the eye is the
| very high death rate which prevailed dur
ing the first three decaGes. from ISL to
| 1870, inclusive. During the first two dec
| AIDES the lowest rate reached was 2SWi
| per 100 for the single year 1872, the rest
ranging from Is % in 1856. up to maximum
| Of 1913. in 1879 In the third DECADE" ISL
| 20. there were but three years below -.
the other seven years ranging from III
up to 4i.:t
The violent fluctuations from year to
year are also very noticeable. We find,
for instance differences between succeed
ing years OF l2.61. l3.sl. 1879 2l.2o 70 20.
and in one cas- as much 40 .93 per 1919.
All Of these wide fluctuations. with the
possible exception of $50 between 1872 ana
lS,3. were due TO epidemics Of cholera
There were also ep,demirS Of CHOLERA dur
ing the previous decade. E@i-i". though
the exact figures cannot be given: 50 thIt
for forty years cholera was almost as
great a scourge in st. Louis az in Calcutta.
In this however. st Louis was not alone.
The cholera diagram for London during
that period ha.' 4 striking resemblance to
! that OF St Louis. There. as here. there
was A sharp epidemic in 1873, and again
in 1854. ano in 1866: and it is more than
probable that the diagrams Of other Amer
lean cities would show a Ike resemblance
Prior to 1870 cholera was Il source OF ter
ror to the whole ciyi iized word and when
It appeared in St Louis ii could always
he traced back to Europea; but trough n, nor
indigenous. it never failed during these
first three decades at ieaSt 10 uiIu mere d
most prolific soil.
MORTALITY RATES ARE LOWER
During the last three decades. from 1871
TO 1900 inclusive. the improvement in the
health conditions of st. Louis is very
marked Both the maximum and minimum
mortality rates arc much lower than dur
ing the prccedins period me three WotHt
years were 1872. 1873 and 1915. when the
death rates were 3015 3U.S and 2J.21 per
1850. respectively. These high rates were
mainly due to smallpox. from which cause
there were in 1872 nearly l.60 deaths. or
596 per l01 an intensity which reminds
us of the days before Doctor Jenner. But
here again we find like conditions to have
prevailed elsow here. In 1871 and 1872 small
pox was epidemic in London. In 1872 and
1873 it was epidemic also IN Boston, though
il was not severe as i'll st. Louis. In
addition to smallpox tlt"le was, III IS'J. an
endemic of scarlet fever. which caused 50S
deaths or II PER 1,cl0, the largest rate on
record from this cause in the history OF
the city
Since ls15 the highest rate reached was
g rs. in the year 1851: thGt is to say. the
r1axirnum rate for the last twenty-eicht
years is barely more than the minimum
rate for tho thirty years lS41-lsI0. In 1898
was the lowest rate for the whole period
of sixtv-threa years. 10 wit. 16 "a per 1oJ0
The rates for each of the six complete
decades and for the three years. faGl-03. Of
the seventh decade are shown by the fol-
lowing table In this table are also given
the mean duration Of life corresponding to
each rate AMI the change therein for each
period.
Death Mean Change
Period Rate Duration From Last
per Loo OF Life Period.