The Wichita daily eagle., 1904-01-12
FORECAST IS GIVEN
What viii Be Effect of the
Presidential Election.
PREDICTION is DIFFICULT
Currency Cannot Be an Issue
Which treasures.

says: Probably no question was more
frequently discussed, in the end-of-the-
year week, than the question, What will
be the inuuence of the Presidential cleo
ton on tie nnanees of 1894? Most OF the
financial authorities who answered the
Evening Posts queries, last Wednesday,
As TO the outlook for the new year,
waived that question. 1t is apt to be
waived in general conversation, feeling
of most men being that they could make
a prediction more confidently, IL they
knew what the issue of the political con-
test is to be. Nearly half the year Will
have passed before they will certainly
have this knowledge.
Perhaps the most familiar comment on
the question, in the day-to-day discus
sions of bankers and merchants, is that
he currency cannot be an issue, and that
controversy in favor of expanded silver
Issues or of expanded legal tenders has
come to an end This fact encourages, as
q rule, a more optimistic view of this
phase of the situation. 1t is in fact
common belief that all, or nearly all, the
presidential contests of this generation
have centered about a struggle over the
standard of value. But this is a very er-
roneous impression. The list Is worth re-
viewing The contests OF 1900 and 1896
We're, Of course, waged distinctly on that
issue. In 1892 candidates of both Repub-
Ocan and Democratic parties we're consid-
cred sound-money men, but the platform
of each party was equivocal on the silver
question, and the campaign OF each was
affected by the upheaval of feeling in the
west, where the Populst party had just
come into being. That year may be fairly
classed as one of the years when the cur
rency really was an issue; it was the for
NAL beginning of the long fight which
ended with the country's renewed agricu-
tural prosperity in 1898.
But the Presidential years preceding
1892 do not have the same story to tell.
In 1888 the currency question was scarce
ly mentioned by Republicans or Demo-
Gratis, either in their platforms or in their
campaigns. documents and speeches. In
1854 the Republican platform merely as
serted that we have always recommend
ed the best money known to the civilized
world" and the Democratic that we b.
Neve in honest money, the gold and sill
Yer coinage of the Constitution"-both OF
which declarations may be termed eva
sive, but which were certainly not alarm
ing. In 1880 the Republicans did not men
tion the currency at all, except to lay
claim TO the good results, Of specie re-
sumption, and the Democrats merely de-
ciared for honest money, consisting of
gold and silver, and paper convertible into
coin on demand" This latter declaration
would pass fairly well today-it meant
very much then. because It acknowledged
abandonment OF the ''greenback" craze.
So. too in 1876, The Republican party. Cit
ing an act of congress, "solemnly pledg-
cd its faith TO make provision, at the
earliest practicable period. for the re-
demption of the United States notes in
coin," while the Democrats denounced
the failure to make good the prom
ise of the legal tender notes" Similar
declarations were made by both parties
in 1872 In 1858. the greenback struggle
intruded into the platforms of the parties
The point of this review is to show that
contrary 10 general belief. the currency
was not really a Presidential issue be-
tween the election Of 1858 and that or
1892 Yet the campaigns of that period
were disturbing enough to busness-not-
ably so in 1884, 1880. 1876. 1t would there
fore seem that other influence than
contest over the currency must have been
at work The reasonable answer is. that
on each occasion seme change of policy,
more or less radical, was proposed IN
other directions than in currency legis!a-
ton. and that trade plans are always apt
TO be held IN allegiance pending such
change. In 1881 it was the tariff discus
sion: of which Il should be said that re-
gardIess of the right or wrong OF the
general question. merchants will neces-
sariy move slowly when propositions in
that line are In aheyance- In 1855, SIM
liar radical proposition, in the line of ad-
yancing tariff duties, had been made by
the Republicans. In 1850 and 1876. the
mere prospect VA change in the dori-
naat party had it's influence. 1t becomes
therefore, a matter of legitimate interest
whether discussion of policy regarding
Grade or corporations might not this year,
have a normally restrictive influence.
To all this however, it is only fair to
add that the trade disturbances of Presi-
deatial years have been largely atribuf-
e bic 10 very ulASftEs SdoScS tiidi pohSa-
cal urbances. 1t will hardly be ad-
nrftted. at this distance of time, that
fear of Mr.. Bryan's election caused the
trade reacion of 1900 No one. in the east
at any rate. believed that he could be
successful: but very many people believed
that the decline in iron was foreshsdow-
ing general trade reverse. Precisely the
same thing may be said OF 1880 and az
for 1884. it should be clear to every ore
who pecalls the financial crash which
followed the forced liquidation of the
wear before that halt in trade must
equally have ensued had there been no
Presidential contest
This showing in the reviews gives fur-
fher interesting food for reflection as &c
the prospects OF 1904 Is general trade. ig-
norfng political uncertainties, likely to
contract or not? II ii is. the year viii
probably be ciassed as one in which the
0ght for the Presidency checked trade.
This would be particularly true. in case
TIE contest this year were to converge on
regulation OF the Trusts. We should then
anfallibly hear. whenever any water,og-
sxd hulk from the overloaded craft Of 1900
ard 1901 went on the rocks. that all the
blame resed on the political platforms
OUT OF CARS REALM.