New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1904-01-03
Financial.
The Financial World.


IN less than two hours, thus wiping out the adj
vance OF week previous. IT was SURPRISING
now easily the market fell away. since IL had
SHOWN what seemed quite like solIdity for a
couple Of weeks; but the mornings warIIxe DIS
patches scared away buying orders. and oper-
atoTs who had been helping the end-of-ths-year
ADVANCE, threw over their holdings rather hast
lily when buyers were scarce. Not much ex-
cept war talk was heard in the Street ysster-
day. and 1t must have been the same IN the
grain markets. for wheat jumped two cents a
oushel. and corn also stiffened up. There was
no cotton market here or in IdverpooI so thai
VIII have to wait till Monday to show what tina
war scare can do for 1t.
Ii there is any Justification for wheat going
up. there is much for cotton going DOWN
Apparently. however. the wheat bulls are TAX
ing gamblers chance on something coming
along to cut down Russian grain exports; for
surely they do not expect the Japanese fleet
VIII turn up in the Black Sea or the Baltic
diminished exports Of cotton goods to the
Orient are probable; yet on Thursday our cot
ton exports to Europe reached $4,000 bales
which at an average price of 1874 cents per
pound. would foot UP the respectable sum OF
sS'1'5.OOO. War did not look quite SO inmi-
nent on Thursday. The situation seems to have
darkened since
4here was certainly an expectation that the
stock market could be kept running along easily
Ior another week at least. and undoubtedly it
would have been but for the fright London got
and communicated TO this centre There seems
TO be considerable uncertainty as TO how this
country would be affected. to what extent If
war actually comes. In well informed quarters
this uncertainty is as plainly manifest as else
where. The scene Of disturbance is far off and
the conditions more or less obscure. The main
uread seems to be that European countries may
De dragged into the trouble; and if one credited
the loose talk which appears in a large section
or the European press it would look as IL war
was a light and easy thing to enter on involv-
ing nothing more serious than the sending OF
diplomatic note. All this rubbish may be dis
missed There was greatly more likelihood Of
other nations being dragged into the Boer war.
over which popular feeling in Europe rose 10
fever heat; yet no nation did interfere. II may
De noted that the German press - looking for
some one else to interfere. but clearly intinates
mat Germany will not. The some one else
must be either France or England France "a
friend Of Russia; and T. government In Eng
land is going to be insane enough to pils an
other war debt on fits South African one Con-
soils are low enough now. and taxation high
enough. without further depressing tia one or
raising the other. No Ministry dare face such
problem; and England's former war with
Russia Ito which she was persuaded by the last
Napolson) was where as Lord SALISBURY
expressed II. We put our money on the wron,
horse"
Russia and Japan will have to fight this out by
themselves. and It will be very much Ike a buI,
terrier taclling a rhinoceros Stock rnarxst de-
preston. however. on what looks Ike the eve OF
an outbreak. IS natural enough; since war IS
pregnant with all sorts Of possibilities; and con-
sequences quite unexpected and unprepared for
ff---z.
speculative lines Of stock at such time as this.
when the public Is wavering in opinion whether
the year before US IS TO be one Of recovery or
further decline. would be quick to reduce their
commitments In the face OF such dispatches as
the cables gave yesterday.
The wavertng OF opinion referred to. Is very
marked Everywhere one seems to hear the
question: What has the new year in store for
US 7'' In the farther West, and IN the South, the
feeling is strongly optimistic; IL would be
jubilant were it not tempered by a shade OF
doubt engendersd by conditions in the East The
South Is buoyed up as it has not been for years
by the phenomenal rise in the price OF It's great
staple. which will probably greater acre
age than ever 70 be put into cotton next season.
Then the Southern territory Is being exploited
with increasing energy every year. and its re-
sources developed with something OF the same
industry which developed the Northwest; and It
IS looking TO the construction OF the Panama
canal as supplying another stimulus TO It's grow
ing industries. Altogether the South considers
itself to be in tip top shape. In the West. the
good grain crops and fair prices for them have
made the people feel IN fine fettle; and on the
Pacific coast. pretty much the same conditions
prevail Very little of the industrial and hnan-
cial disturbance has been felt there which has SO
unsettled things in the East and Middle West
II is here that the outlook Is viewed with
most anxiety. This is the financial and invest
rnent section and trade and manufacturing
are its staples The forecast for the year is.
a. customary. sought in a consideration OF the
iron market. as the barometer OF trade. Elk
pert opinion on this industry has 10 confident
tone in It. There is hope. and that IS about
the best that can be said. That the cOnsump-
ton OF iron will rise TO what it was in 1902
is considered impossible: that 1t will show
substantial recovery from the depression Of the
last quarter of the year. IS hoped for.
In connection with this. all attention natural
" focuses on the U. S. Steel Corporation. this
being the giant among the dwarfs. Estimates
Of what its earnings will be in 1904 are based
on the tonnage It is expected to turn out and
the average profit on the same. What the lat
ter may be is OF less moment for purposes OF
trade forecast. than what the tonnage may be;
and il may be said that IL opinion which may
certainly be called expert, is OF value. the
barometer of trade will mark rather low fig
ures for the coming year. For the company
itself. tonnage and profit figured together.
would Indicate no sdividend on the common.
and close figuring TO maintain the full divi-
dend on the preferred. An estimate for the
when earnings for the last quarter We're put
at higher figures than since TumoTed. and IL