The herald-advance. (Milbank, S.D.) 1890-1922, 1904-09-09
CONTROL OF THE HOUSE.
No Ground for Claiming that Demo
Gratis Will BE Successful.

With its usual penchant for exploiting
mares nests the New York Herald has
figured out a statistical possibility that
the election returns on the night of
November 8 will show a Democratic
House of Representatives" 1t also
thinks the Republicans may elect their
National ticket and still lose the House
by a large majority"
1t is interesting to observe the jug
Cling with improbalities out Of which
this mares nest is constructed. AS we
all know. the present membership of the
House is 1856. divided into 2OS Republi-
cans, 112 Democrats, ? Union La Dor
Democrats and 4 vacancies, the Repub-
lican majority being 81. The Herald
expert figures that there are 153 safe
Democratic districts and only lot safe
for the Republicans, making it necessary
for the latter to VIII 80 of the II doubt
full districts to secure a majority, while
the former would only need So.
But the Herald is confronted by the
fact that of these II, so-called. doubtful
seats the Democrats now only occupy
IS to % held down more or less secure
" by Republicans. Nothing daunted
by this untoward condition it proceeds
TO talk glibly of giving six so-called
doubtful seats in Illinois. FIVE in Indiana.
two in Iowa. three in Kansas, two III
Minnesota, four in Nebraska. six III
Ohio, five in Pennsylvania and five III
Wisconsin to the Democrats.
How this is accomplished may be best
illustrated and exposed by the case as
stated in regard to Illinois. The six
districts placed in the doubtful column
are the first and twenty-fourth now
held by Democrats, the sixth, ninth.
twenty-second. and twenty-ifth by Re
publicans. "A considera BILE reduction III
the Republican vote in the State says
this happy conjurer by the hope that
is in it, might easily result in the elec-
ton of SIX Democrats from these dis
~tricts." Verify it might result in the
election of six dodos. were it not for the
fact that the dodo is an extinct bird.
In 1902, which was an off year for
Republicans in Illinois. Martin EN-
erich, Democrat. was elected IN the
first, a strong Republican district, by
a plurality of 1.152. but solely by reason
Of a fierce factional fight within the Re
publican ranks. which has subsidized.
Congressman i.orimer. Republican, had
a plurality of only 9S in the sixth,
where the normal party majority is over
5000. lie is not meeting the same OPP
| position this year. Congressman Bon
tell had a plurality of 2,OS3 in the ninth.
His personal popularity alone insures his
reelection by All increased plurality.
Congressman Rodenberg had a plurality
of 2.154 in the twenty-second, and the
district is good for an increased Republi-
can margin. Congressman Smith had a
plurality of 2.301 in the twenty-ifth,
which is more likely to be doubled than
reduced next November.
OF all the Illinois districts mentioned
as doubtful the twenty-fourth, which
Congressman Williams carried by 252
in 1902. is the only one where the Demo
Gratis stand a possible show in 1904,
and there the strength Of the Republican
National and State tickets promises Mr..
Williams relief from further attend
ance in the House of Representatives.
Mckinley carried the counties in this
district by over 2,2OO plurality in 1900.
Thus, with at least six of the pos
sibilities in the Herald's mares nest in
one State added. and with a like analy-
sis revealing similar conditions in all the
others. there is good ground for assum-
ing that the Republicans will not only
retain their present ascendancy in the
House of Representatives, but will have
an increased majority in the Fifty-ninth
Congress.