Ottumwa tri-weekly courier. [volume] (Ottumwa, Iowa) 1903-1916, 1904-03-10

exerting an influence on the local mar
ket conditions. "On the continent and
especially in France an important
contingent have been taken by sur
prise. Evidently they. believed war
would be averted, and, being some
what unprepared, the necessarily rap
i'd adjustment to new conditions is de-
cidedly inconvenient. 1t is among
these classes that losses have fallen
most severely, causing more or less
anxiety concerning settling day in
Paris, where there has been a great
deal Of forced liquidation. In other
quarters there is also apprehension re-
garding the duration of the war and
disturbances in the balance of power
in Europe that might follow serious
reverses to Russia. Under such cir
cumstances the great bankers of the
world are disposed to have their funds
in good command; not merely as a
matter of safety. but also to take adj
vantage of opportunities. Should the
war be OF long duration both Russia
and japan will have to borrow extern
slvely in the worlds money markets,
both nations having already sounded
London. Paris and even New York on
that point. Such possibilities natural
~ produce very conservative feeling
abroad. where strong efforts have been
made to prevent a fall in the govern
ment securities, notably in Russians,
in which an attempt at Paris to pre-
vent short sales served to stimulate
rather than allay distrust. Rightly
considered. these conservative pro-
ceedings are safeguard against dis
aster in event of emergencies: but
they are inconyenient to those involv-
ed in unsuccessful speculation and
have already exposed. several weak
spots and induced important failures.
Local influences have also discour-
aged activity. An important uncertain
ty is the Northern Securities decision.
While a verdict adverse to the COM
pany would cause no surprise, still it |
might necessitate important changes
in the plans of those who contemplate |
ed the merger, and of course no one
can predict the effect of such changes
upon the values. Another development
which induces caution is the decline in
railroad earnings, both gross and net.
1t is true these losses can generally
6E,l
Which has heavily taxed even the best
equipped roads; yet two or three i'm
portant systems have shown losses
which are not explained by this cause
but seem to be due to decline in traf-
fic resulting from lessened activity of
business. Nothing but time can de-
termine' whether these losses will con-
tinue or not. The probability is that
no serious reaction in business will fol-
low; that losses will be only occasion
al, and that most of the lines will con-
tinue to make satisfactory exhibits.
Some of the railroads are already en-
forcing economies, and there are no
indications of reduced dividends in
sight, so that good railroad securities
are generally held in spite of diminish
ed earnings.
1.-THE Panama canal payments will
be financed with little or no disturb
ance to this market, and shipments
to Europe on this account will be COM
paratively small AS to the immedi-
ate future, much depends on the prog
ress of the war. Any event likely to
shorten the struggle or even a great
victory for Japan, would stimulate val
ues; but no decisive results can be
expected until the approach Of spring
renders military campaigning less diff
ficult. At home there is nothing dis
couraging in the situation. General
business will probably improve with
the departure of winter, and in the alb
sence of .unfavorable events values
ought then to recover. There is a
good substratum Of confidence to the
market to build upon, and any change
for the better in the conditions dis
cussed above would undoubtedly pro-
mote greater activity in the stock
market. Certainly there are no great
inducements to the short side of the
market in spite of uncertainty, and
speculation is much more inclined to
respond to good news than to bad"