Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1904-01-04
SOUND TRADE BASIS
OPTIMISTIC v1Ew4 OF THE
FUTURE.
Review Predicts Falrly Satisfactory
Business for the Coming Year
General Foundation Strong.

0eneral Eounoat1on strong.
In its annual review ofsthe business year
OF 190S Bradstreet's says: 49,
Nineteen hundred and three was year
OF irregularity in speculation. distributive
trade and industry-in some cases of severe
strains variously applied and as differently
withstood. AS the residuary legatee Of at
least five years Of great prosperity. 1t had
to bear cumulative effects OF previous
years mistakes. and at the same time to
carry burdens having their inception in the
year itself. Yet the tests were we'll with
stood. and. while excesses occurred, the
course of events so far has proved that the
general trade foundation was essentially
sound and that the structure reared upon
1t was In the main well built. Stock mar
ket liquidation, though slow, has been ap-
parently thorough. and, while many weak
spots have been found ordinary trade has
itself to changed conditions Of supply and
demand without the impairment which
would have followed speculative crash
such as has been freely predicted would
close the present period Of prosperity.
Causes for Unsettlement.
Among the causes leading to unsettle-
ment in stock speculation and later in inn
portant industries the report gives the in
Jury to sentiment growing out OF dis
closures of overriding. to put IL mildly,
in Industrial stock Auctuations; scarcity
in motley supplies. due to absorption by
these hotations. and to borrowing by rail-
roads: the feeling that a subsistence Of
the rampant activity of preceding years
was inevitable. but chiefly the effects CT
enhanced cost at which business is done.
High priced raw materials. increased trans
portation rates. enlarged costs of manufac-.
ture, and last, but not least, the manifest
determination Of labor to get all Z at the
traffic would bear. were all elements tend
Ing to check consumption
Numerous Labor Troubles.
Summarizing the years developments.
the review calls attention to the excellent
condition of trade and industry during the
first quarter, and the multiplication of Ia
Dor troubles during the second quarter.
June 1 seeing the largest number of men
out of employment In many years Building
construction at many large cities was
checked, and 1t was practically at a stand
still at New York throughout the summer
THE high price of cotton caused the more
or less constant idIeness of 2VU,Oo0 spindtes
and 100000 operatives in the middle Of the
year. while reductions in wages of many
thousands Of workers in the last months
impaired the purchasing ability of the in
dustrial element. The crop situation was
less favorable than earlier anticipated, but
better prospects later helped out fall trade.
Reverses Caused Some. Tension.
stock market liquidatienA~and numerous
suspensions caused some tension In October
and November, but ordinary failures con-
tinued smaller in number. though liabilities
were larger than year ago Clearings re-
fected dullness in stock Speculation. and
showed decreases from 1902 and 1901. No
vember and December shaved more OPP
timistlc tone In general business. though
trade in dry goods was unsettled by the
enormous advance in cotton Trade as
whole was probably in excess of 1907. The
wheat crop was slightly less than that OF
1902 and corn and cotton were affected by
the late spring floods and early frosts. the
yields of the country's crops. as whoie.
falling behind 1902. ~
.'The, price of corn haslbeen below that
with the improved qualty of most crops
insure a financial return to the farmers
above that of 1902 y ltJ FVsF
Iron and Steel Prices.
Manufacturing industry was feverishly
active early in the year. iron and steel lead
ing ,Curtailment following 40 per cent re-
duction in prices cut down the output, and
a liberal export movement started Lum-
Der and building material felt the decline
in activity The cut will probably run 10
per cent below 1902. Shoe manufacturing
was active, and shipments from eastern
1901, the best on record. by per cent. The
wool clip was 10 per cent less than 1902, but
sold at an advance over 1902. Cotton man
ufacturing struggled against advances Of 40
with increases of inly 10 to % per cent in
goods, and the silk industry was also af-
fected by high raw material. Anthracite
coal was active; soft coal was strong and
brisk early, weakening later; and coke
showed great extremes In prices. Export
trade amounting to s.. ass, 600 showed
per cent increase over 1902. and imports
of 81, 900. 900 600 make the aggregate of for
eign trade the best on record.
Started Early in the Year.
Reduced stock speculation at the me-
tropolis cut down the bank clearing at New
York 10 per cent from 1902, but the country
as a whole showed per. cent gain over
1902. Prices early in the year evidenced
strength of demand. reaching on March 1
the highest level for three, years past
Metals. live stock. meats. hidesand leather,
coal and coke reacted; but breadstuffs. tex
tiles, mineral oils. building materials, cof-
fee and miscellaneous products finished
higher. Car congestion was complained OF
early, out Iac1lltleS were greatly expanded
later, and continuing heavy business was
economically handled. Gross railroad earn
ings and net receipts gained 10 per cent
over 1902 A disquieting feature In the
business mortality was the larger number
of heavy manufacturing suspensions. I'm
migration was the largest ever known
Forecast for 1904.
ut is with chastened spirit, coupled
with some doubt" the review concludes.
that the business community awaits the
developments Of 1904. Unsatisfactory con-
dtions are sufficiently widespread to take
away some of the buoyant feeling with
which the advent OF recently preceding
years has been contemplated Efforts to
revise costs of production and readjust-
ments to meet changed demand and supply
conditions have made GOOD progress. nota-
bly, in iron and steel! Some Important liues.
particularly cotton goods, are unsettled,
Producers ability to take. lower prices Is,
of course. predicted upon the acceptance Of
decreased wages by employees Expenditures
for engineering enterprises, while helpful
to demand, may restrict supplies of money
for ordinary business The presidential
campaign may also be nnsettling, though