The Minneapolis journal. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn.) 1888-1939, 1904-10-22

New York. Oct. 22.-rhe strong upward move
ment In the stock market Is unquestionably
due to the brighter outlook for industrial enter
prlses, railway business and belief that there
will be no change In political conditions. The
address Of Frank A. Vanderlip, vice president OF
the National City bank, attracted great deal
of attention in financial circles. Mr.. Fanderllp
is not only official of the largest banking
institution in the country, but he Is also looked
upon in Wall street to extent the
mouthpiece of the Standard Oil interests. In
the fall of 1902 he delivered address in
which he predicted the reaction In prosperity
and values which occurred in 1903.
Mr.. Vanderlip's address on Tuesday was as
optimistic as his previous address had been
bearish. He said that the period of depression
undoubtedly over, and he looks for a great
industrial development during the next ten
years. Speaking Of the stock market, however.
Mr.. Vanderlp said that prices have advanced
too rapidly, and that stocks are now selling at
prices not warranted by actual conditions. he
said that a reaction would be healthful, and
that the reckless encouragement Of specula ton
would strike blow at returning prosperity
which might long delay its coming In this
opinion Mr.. Vanderlip agrees with the most con-
servatlve interests in the financial district who
believe that reaction In the market would De
a most favorable development.
A Bears Opinion.
81 think that the bull market is over for the
present." said room trader. Il have always
noticed that whenever a movement in any one
general attention that movement is about over
Some Of the ablest brokers in the street believe
in the volume theory of trading. According to
their theory, whenever there is a great increase
in the market to more than 900, 900 shares, and
this activity Is maintained for several days, 1T
| marks the elimination Of the movement for the
time being. With trading averaging more than
| 900, 900 shares a day for several days, 1t Is
argued that it renders possible extensive distr1-
button of stocks. Having sold out their hold
| ings at profit it then becomes the object or
| the leading financial interests to work for a
reaction, so that stocks be purchased back
| at lower prices. Then the way Is paved for a
resumption Of the upward movement. AS a
rule. this theory has proved correct.
Whenever the public enters the market on a
| large SCALE however, the theory is upset. When
the volume Of sales amounted to considerably
| over 600 900 shares In 1901, traders concluded
that the bull market had eliminated and sold
out their holdings. They had not calculated
the extent to which the public could be induced
to come into the market, and the theory OF the
volume sales accordingly upset. The volume
amounted to over 100000 shares, while
prices continued to advance. Two weeks later
there occurred the Northern Pacific panic. Thu
| immediate movement Of prices, therefore, simply
resolves itself into the extent to which the pub
| lie comes into the market
Enormous Business.
| The magnitude of the professional operations
going is the astonishing feature. 1t stands
| to reason that there Is manipulation In the
| twenty or thirty most ATTRACTIVE StOchs, pe
| cause the commission necessarily paid on lots
ranging from 10000 to $4,000 shares day
would eat up within a week the entire profit Of
| the whole campaign. The spirit of speculation
Is running high.
More and more the opinion develops around the
Stock Exchange that the market has gone WILD
and Is riding for great fall. No man is as
energetic in declaring a bearish opinion on the
market as the who enthusiastic bull
some time ago and has sold out, to see price!
soaring far beyond him. There is scarcely
bull who has not completely sold out more thar
once already, and come in again at higher prices
1t must be admitted that the liquidation of lont
stocks Of very good character is on an enor
nous scale. 1t Is very doubtful whether tn
greatest interests behind the market are pre-
pared to have the turn come just yet So far
it is vastly easier to bid prices UP than to offe
them down. Liquidation Of 10000 shares
readily swallowed up, while the purchase o
10, 900 shares is apt to create great activity an
an extensive following. 1t is getting so nea
election day that the average bullish locker o.
Is inclined to think that the market will ru
until then. The Waldorf party, whole,
confident with respect to the market, and expect
, it to continue active a large scale, wit
higher prices. $. s. Schrof.