Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1904-10-31
FAVOR REPUBLICANS
POLL By NEW YORK PAPERS M
DICTATES ELECTION OF ROOSEVELT
Forecast Vote Shows Electoral Majority
Of Eighteen for Roosevelt and Fair
banks-The Next House.

banks-The Next House.
l The Herald's non-partlsan poll Of the
country indicates that Roosevelt and Fair
| banks will be elected and that the House
l OF Representatives will be republican.
It also discloseS an almost even chance
| that President Roosevelt will lose the cleo
| toral vote Of his own state. the Herald's fig
| ures showing that the two New Workers
are running close together.
States casting 257 electoral votes are clas-
| sified as strongly favoring the republican
electoral ticket. States casting 159 electoral
votes will go for Parker and Davis A ma
jority OF the electoral college consists Of
239 votes. Thus the President has a ma
jority Of eighteen sure votes and Parker
| lacks eighty votes Of having clear ma
jority.
In the doubtful columns are placed the
| states which cast sixty electoral votes. OF
these the returns necesstate the classiica-
ton or hve. casting eighteen electoral votes,
| as probably republican. These are Colora-
do. 5; Delaware. 3; Montana. 8. and West
Virginia Z. The returns also necessitate
classifying one state as doubtful and prob
ably democratic. This is Nevada, with 8
doubtful and given to neither candidate.
1NCW LUX QcSu1C SlOSSs
This campaign has been likened to that
Of 1892 when there was a tremendous and
unexpected upheaval and Cleveland carried
states that had never gone democratic be-
fore. If the indicated result Is to be chang
ed 1t must be by the work Of influences be-
meath the surface which no amount of in
vestigation can fathom There are no signs
on the surface to indicate such an upheaval
except the indicated vote Of New York city;
tS 1yrvoy f6a ct1o r1f
vote, which Is sufficient in most elections
to determine the result.
Unusual care has been taken in this con-
test to discover the intentions of the voters.
While all surface indications point to re-
publican victory, surface indications have
been by no means relied upon entirely.
From the state of Indiana the Herald OBJ
tained three polls, made by experienced
men. each working Independently Of the
others.
In Wisconsin two canvasses, each indie
pendent of the other were conducted, and
in each case the official result was given
after exhaustive inquiries throughout the
state of all the elements possessing famil-
iarity with the voting conditions there.
In West Virginia results were ascertain
ed by representative of a democratic
newspaper who has repeatedly foretold
elections in that state, and by represent
tative of the Herald whose great familiar
ity with the conditions there, who made the
poll for the Herald in 1900.
Indiana Triply Tested.
The result of the inquiries in Indiana was
that each canvass showed that the state
would go republican. The democratic pa
per placed the vote for Roosevelt over that
| of Parker at 20, 900. The Independent paper
| supporting Roosevelt estimated the state
| to be republican The Herald correspondent
| placed it at 1900 for Roosevelt a week
| ago and refused to change his estimate, In
| view of Mr.. Bryan's second tour of the
state. 1t is a remarkable fact that these
| three polls all came to exactly the same
result in each Of the thirteen congressional
districts
Identical conclusions were reached in
| West Virginia and in other states in which
there was double investigation.
New York being the most interesting
| point of conflict, is treated of first. The
| Herald made separate canvasses of the two
sections of the state that so widely differ
| politically. The canvass of the fifty-seven
counties lying outside of the city of New
York was conducted independently OF the
| poll of the city.
New Jersey, which is recognized as one
of the doubtful battle grounds in the east,
| is likely to go republican on the national
ticket by about half of what it gave Nc
Kinley in 1900 McKinley's plurality was
Sc 600 The canvass indicated Roosevelt'S
election by about $1,000.
Connecticut, which has been included In
the doubtful states, seems almost certain
to go for Roosevelt by large majority. 1t
is believed that nothing short of miracle
can change tne result III the last udSS VI
the campaign. although it is recognized
that Judge Parkers coming campaign tour
in the state will arouse great enthusiasm
among his supporters
Apathy in Delaware.
1. would seem that Delaware is only
doubtful because of apathy. In this state.
for the first time in several years the re-
publicans are supporting one ticket, with
the exception of an independent candidate
for governor. who has not the support OF
his own faction. full vote should give
the republicans the largest plurality the
state ever had.
MARYLAND is unquestonably in the demo-
CT attic column. This is due almost entirely
to the race issue. The democrats will GER
tainly gain one of the districts now repre-
scented by the republicans in Congress, and
possibly three.
West Virginia which Henry G. Davis was
expected to carry for Parker Is probaoiy
republican on national issues. There would
be no doubt about it, but for the injection
of state issues In the campaign. 1t is en-
tirely possible that the state may elect
democratic governor and democratic leg
islature and still give its electoral vote for
Roosevelt and Fairbanks.
The sturdiest struggle of the campaign,
outside of New York. has been in Indiana
This is one of the republican states carried
by small pluralities for Mckinley. The
democrats of that state are largely follow
ers of William ]. Bryan. Judge Parker
got most or the Ola O6IuOCFdtS III line Win
his telegram to the st. Louis convention
Mr. BRYAN has been relied upon to bring the
silver democrats into line.
Tribune Gives It All to Roosevelt.
The New York Tribune Of this morning
prints an exhaustive forecast of the cleo
ton. OF the electoral college 1t awards
314 votes to Roosevelt and 151 (the solid
SOUTH to Parker. classifying as doubtful
only the states of Maryland and Nevada
In New York county the Tribune's figures
are as follows:
Parker's probable plurality. 10000
Herricks probable plurality. .........7 600
Watson's probable vote. 10000
Debs probable vote. 1900
QUEENS COUNTY.
Parker's probable plurality. ..........3,5 500
Herricks probable plurality. .......... 1900
RICHMOND.
Parker's probable plurality. ........... TOO
Herrick's probable plurality. .......... 800
KINGS COUNTY.
Roosevelt's probable plurality. $500. g. 642
The Tribune's estimate of the result In
New York is that Higgins will carry the
state by at least $4,000 and his majority
may go as high as $4,000. and that Roose-
welt will run 10000 or 10000 ahead of him.
The Tribune predicts Roosevelt will carry
nv nd Il