The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1904-07-20

lcratic column.
1T will at least take an extraordina-
ry fight on the part of the Republicans
TO save the State of Davis birth and
that which he has represented in the
senate. MIR. Roosevelt personally is
not strong wherever the negro con-
sttutes any considerable part of the
population. The proposed Republican
inquiry into disfranchiSemen in the
south operates in the same direction
Maryland is naturally Democratic. 1t
was the German Democrats of Balti-
more, and quite conspicuously the
Jewish vote which rebelled at the free
silver ideas of Bryan and took the
State out of the Democratic column.
lSador Raynor, who has now been
elected to the Senate, will take the
stump III behalf of the Democratic
| ticket, and few men exceed him in
| effectiveness as campaign orator.
He will feel it incumbent on him to
hold the Jewish vote for the Demo-
| cratic ticket, now that the free silver
| scare is passed, and that he has been
elected to the Senate. Everything is
apparently ready for Democratic sue
cess in a Presidential vote. West Vir
ginia is something of a follower" of
| Maryland, although naturally less
| Democratic. The Davis nomination
will doubtless make up the difference.
Groups That Might Win.
THE 3 States of the old South
| which are not open to real contest
cast Isl electoral votes. To these the
10 votes of Maryland and West Vir-
ginia may be added, making 166. OF
the 476 members of the electoral col
iege, 239 will be necessary for the
Democrats to elect a President. Were
! the ballot to fall 238 on each side, the
contest would be transferred to the
present House of Representatives,
where with each State casting one
vote, the Republican ticket would pre-
vail by a vote of 80 to Is. The Re-
publicans thus have the trifling,
| though interesting, advantage that
| 23S electoral votes would elect their
| ticket, while 239 will be the minimum
required to elect the Democratic.
1T will be necessary, therefore, for
! the Democrats to get 70 electoral votes
north of Maryland and West Virginia.
| Several combinations might do this,
but for any one of them which is
| within reason New York State will be
necessary Should New York's 80 cleo
toral votes be cast for Parker there
would remain necessary for Demo-
cratic success only "a more electoral
votes. TO carry New York and to
| pick up these "a extra votes, besides
saving Maryland and West Virginia, is
thus the problem. that confronts the
managers of the Democratic campaign.
These "a votes might come from eth
Ell of the following combinations:
Group one-New Jersey II, Della
ware 3, Nevada 8, Montana 3. Indiana
| 49, making SO, two more than neces-
sary, or 241 in the electoral college.
Group two-Indiana Is, New Jer-
sey II, and Connecticut 7 making an
even B4, restoring the solid South
Except Delaware), New York, In
diana New Jersey and Connecticut
This would be victory on the old bat
| tie ground, with lines unchanged.
"In each of these groups Indiana
has been placed. Democratic victory
| in that State WILL from ordinary APP
pearances, require a hard fight. In
proportion to population the State
gave a larger Republican plurality in
| 1902 that did Massachusetts,. Fair
| banks is on the Republican ticket. No
Indiana man is on the Democratic
ticket. There has been a large migra-
| ton of negroes to Indiana of late
years, particularly in the cities where
| they help to swell the Republican to-
| tails but are not sufficiently numerous
| to drive white men out of the party,
as would be the case further South. A
| considerable section of the Indiana
| Democracy is Populistic in it's tenden-
cies, and cannot be expected to warm
up for the Parker ticket. For these
| and other reasons along the same
lines, many Republicans here maintain
| that Indiana should be excluded from
these groupings. At all events, Park
81 s fight there will be an uphill one.
lLet us see where the "a votes can be
| had without this State.
Group three-New Jersey IL, Con-
necticut Z, Delaware g. California 10
and Nevada 3; total 80.
Group four-New Jersey II, Con-
| nccticut Z Delaware 3, Montana ),
| Nevada 3, Utah 8, Idaho 3; total "a
but many observers here think
Connecticut which figures in both
groups three and four, an unsafe State
| for Democratic calculations It's vote
| for Governor in 1902 stood $4,000 to
| $1,000, with 5000 votes scattering.
| The Republicans then received So per
cent. of the total vote, and the Demo-
Gratis slightly less than "A per cent
| The vote for Congressman t-lar'E
| stood: Cummings, Democrat. 7O,59O,
and Lily, Republican, S3,G66. 1t will
! obviously require a very considerable
overturn in popular sentiment to car
ry the Nutmeg State for Parker, but
that this is in progress there is con-
siderable evidence.
with either Indiana or Connecti-
cut the best combination would be
this:
Group five-New Jersey II, Della
ware 3, California 10, Colorado 5, Ne
vada 3, Montana 3; total Sc.
But why should California be in
Guided in these lists at all? Many Pa
cific coast people insist that it is
doubtful State, in spite of the fact
that the imperialistic issue operates
about as advantageously for the Re-
publicans there as an aggressive naval
policy would for New Jersey, if all
ships for the navy were built at At
lantic City. California has done a
large business in furnishing supplies
for the troops in the Philippines. It's
people seem mad with the lust for en-
pire. The uniform of the army is a
passport to almost everything that is
most coveted in San Francisco. The
State gave Mckinley in 1900 a majori-
" over Bryan of 10000, the largest
ever given any Presidential candidate
in the history of the State. If it were
to go Democratic now it would be an
unparalleled overturn. Whence arises
the hope or expectation that it will do
so?
1.-TWO years ago the Republicans
barely saved the State on the guber-