The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1904-11-01
THE EAGLES CANVASS MAKES 1T
LOOK LIKE PARKER WILL
BE ELECTED.

In the past three elections in New
York. the Brooklyn Eagle has printed
the result of preliminary postal
card canvass. Each time the ma
iorities indicated by the Eagles can
vases have agreed almost eXactly
with the actual results of election DAY.
Sundays Eagle contained whole
page summary of the results OF the
preliminary canvass in Greater New
York with the result that the canvass
indicates a plurality of 1904 IN
Brooklyn and 133,300 in Manhattan
and the Bronx, making in Greater
New York a, total of 1872, 022-an un-
precedented plurality. Writing OF
how the canvass was conducted, the
Eagle says:
1.-The canvass for 1904 has been
conducted in all ways precisely as
those that have preceded it. 1t is, IN
fact. a preliminary canvass for the
reason that it is based on the flrSt TWO
days of registration only.
There were sent out 10000 CARDS,
or 90 to each district in the borough.
The addresses to which they were
sent were taken from the registry
proclivities of the voters addressed
were not known to those who selected
the addresses, there was an entire
absence of discrimination in the Sc
lection. The Eagle has reason to be-
lieve this because of its experience
in the past.
1.-The total registration for the two
DAYS, October 1 4 and Is, was 156, 1913.
1t is assumed that in that registration
is represented 1925 of the whole
probable vote of 234,39S. This as
sumption is not merely guess work,
for it is obtained by deducting from
the figures of the registry the differ
ence between the registration and the
vote cast at previous presidential cleo
tons This vote of 14S,915 is GO
4S-1O0 per cent of the whole probable
vote. Therefore, the computations by
which the results as above are OBJ
tanned are based on less than Ga per
cent of the whole probable vote. 1t
is because the figures as above are OBJ
tanned from computations upon the "a
per cent that the canvass of today is
called preliminary.
ut may be that when the returns
are received from the four days of
registration-the results from which
will be printed next Sunday-the fig
ures may be changed. Past expert
ences, however, show that there is
difference only in degree between the
preliminary and the final canvass. and
that the tendency is rather toward the
slight enlargement of the indicated
results.
1.-THE results as above indicated are
so far so far beyond the expectations
of the most sanguine guesser that the
element of surprise is admittedly
present.
1.-The Eagle has to say, however,
that the methods of collecting the
data upon which the computations
were made-those of analysis and
Observation-Disclosures the methods of
computation are the same employed
in the past three years, when the
Eagles forecasts substantially agreed
with the actual results of the election
day. The same care, with even more
painstaking, has characterized the
work of this year.
"In short, the results have been
obtained through a cold blooded APP
plication of arithmetic into which
neither partiSanShip nor personal de-
sire has entered. Indeed, could the
Eagle take it's readers step by step
through the processes by which these
results are gained, it would be APP
parent to each one that the results are
not even foreshadowed to the workers
until the end of the computation.
THE percentage of returns of cards
this year is much larger than in any
previous year. The Eagle has fol-
lowed its usual custom of endeavoring
to reach a considerable per cent of all
the voters. and therefore sent out TO-
OO0 to which there has been a re-
Spouse of 3,76S, which is about 81
$40 per cent This in itself indicates
a deep interest in the election, though
il has been the common remark that
the campaign has been apathetic. If
these figures are true in their indica-
tions they will prove to be quite as
surprising 10 the best informed politi-
cal managers of the Democratic party
as they will to their opponents. There
have been some predictions that the
silent vote would determine the forth
coming election. These predictions
have not been frequent nor strenuous.
but if the indications are to be relied
upon it would seem as ii the silent
vote were an exceedingly large guam
tity in this election.
Each presidential election has its
own peculiar characteristics. That of
the campaign of 1904 has been one of
exceeding uuietude. 1t has been the
complaint of every political manager
and worker, whatever his political
faith, that it has been most dlfilcult
if not impossible to stir up the people
into enthusiasm. There has been
marked absence of fireworks and brass
bands, but it would seem from the
above figures that the people nave
been deeply interested and make up
their minds early as to how tney
would vote and kept their own couh-
sci.
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