The National tribune. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1877-1917, 1904-01-14

THE EASTERN SITUATION.

THE EASTERN SITUATION.
/ Nearly all Of the news from the capitals
Of Europe indicate the certainty Of
war between Russia and Japan. The
japanese people are highly indignant
at Russia's encroachments upon what
they regard as Japan's legitimate
sphere Of influence, and where Japan
has great commercial interests. Ev.
cry preparation is being made for war,
japan going to the length Of bnying fight
ing vessels wherever they are for sale,
and making contracts for immense quaint
ties of coal, and other warlike supplies for
immediate delivery. Notes are being ex-
changed which verge closely on ultimate.
| Despite all this, we assert the probability
that there will be no war. Russia's pol
icy has always been, and will continue to
be Machiavelian to the last degree. She will
grab all that she possibly can, threaten
and buster to the last verge of war, then
sulienly retreat, giving up only what she
has to under the pressure of dire force,
to wait her time for renewing a similar
program at the next convenient opportu-
nifty. She has played this game with Eng
land in the East for centuries. She has
advanced toward India and Persia, until
England, irritated to the last degree, has
been upon the point of declaring war,
when Russia has withdrawn a portion of
her advance making concession to
al, I4n -
has quieted down, she has again pushed
forward, until she has provoked a SINH
lar demonstration. In this way she has
| advanced until she has gained the whole
of Turkistan, and central Asia, and is at
| the very gates of Hindustan. As near as
we can judge from the turmoil of dis
patches, she will probably at the last
minute back down from Korea and her
projected port at the southern end of the
peninsula, and acknowledge japanese pre-
dominance in Korea. She may even con-
cede all that is not substantial Of her own
hold upon Manchuria. When the war
| fever in Japan subsidies, she will begin
| again her slowA obstinate, advance, and a
few years from now we shall have repi-
tition of the same tactics, Russia, in the
meanwhile, having gained immensely in
territory, position, resources, and readi-
ness for war.
The Japanese, however, seem to be
fully acquainted with these characteris-
ties Of Russia, and are determined that
they shall not be employed against them
| with the same success that they have been
against England. The situation is SO crit
| ical that the least event may be a spark
in the Magazine. A riot between Japan
csc and Russian merchants, a collision be-
| tween pickets, any untoward event hap
pening in the manuyers Of the japanese
and Russian fleets, which are now in close
proximity to one another, may start the
conflict the spread of which no one can
forsee. This is what terrorizes Europe.
II Russia and Japan begin fighting, all the
how they will range themselves is as great
a problem as any other. At present
France is friendly to Russia, but opposed
to her acquiring a dominance in China.
Great Britain is distinctly on the side of
Japan, and more or less committed to her
| assistance in the event of actual war
4
Up to the present time Germany has in
| elined to Russia, but it is felt that she is
not likely to GO much further in her
friendship than to sell her arms, ammu-
milton, and other supplies ut good profit.
What Germany will do in the event Of ac-
tual war is highly disturbing question.
She has as little liking for Russia's ac-
curing an influence over China, and clos
ing the great empire to German manufac-
turers, as the other nations. VIII she ac-
| tually fight to prevent this? That is, the
question. Italy will probably follow tile
course OF England. Austria-Hungary
has troubles of her own to keep her neu-
trail, and yet she may not be allowed to re-
main SO.
As for ourselves we are committed to a
moral support Of Japan and the Mantle
nance of the ''open door" in China which
| is menaced by Russia's course. There is
no present reason why we should go be-
yond a moral support. This week is big
| with events, and the end may see the de-
livery in peace or war.