The Savannah morning news., 1904-09-07
COTTON.

New York Sept s. - For the
information of many inquiring
friends, I publish the follow
ing in reply to a letter addressed
to me by a gentleman in the South
criticising my recent public expressed
change of opinion in regard to the
cotton market.
1 may say that the developments of
to-day do not lead me to modify my
expectations of substantially lower
prices for the cotton during the period
when receipts are likely to be heaviest.
and l think that those who have cotton
which they must dispose of within the
next two months will do wisely to
accept current quotations
New York, Sept. 3, 1904
Dear Sir:-I reply particularly to
your letter received to-day in which
you suggest that my recent change
of front in regard to the probable
course of the cotton market will de-
prive me of all following and any ca
pacity of market leadership i'm future.
In reply thereto, 1 beg to say first, that
l do not aspire to so-called market
leadership, and think it a detriment
rather than an advantage so far as it
affects spectators money making
capacity.
1t burdens him with a moral respon-
sibility for other peoples transactions
and renders it difficult for him to liqui-
date his own. So far as my change of
opinion is concerned, 1 can only quote
you Emerson's trite remark that, CON
sistency is a weakness of the narrow
minded" and tell you with Josh Bill
lings, that "a wise man changes his
opinions, a fool never"
/ reserve the right to change my
opinions without. however. arrogating
to myself by implication even any SUI
perior wisdom. il is because l some
times see that other people are wiser
than / am and that l change my opin-
ions. Two classes of facts. To my
thinking, there are two classes of facts
which the Spectator in cotton or in
anything else must be constantly I'm
search of, one is facts mathemical
which may be subdivided into facts alb
solute and facts reductive. The other
class is facts psychological which al
though exceedingly elusive are quite
as important as mathematical certain
ties in dealing with an article in which
the speculative public is as enormous
as that at the present trading i'm cot
ton. You must bear in mind that there
are probably not less than 10000
people actively interested in the cotton
market at all times and in periods OF
great activity this number is largely
Increased II each OF these persons
buys or sells only 100 bales
the demand for or supply of contracts
thus created represents an aggregate
of 100000 bales of cotton and is a
! force that is simply overwhelming it's
/ preponderance.
once set in action by any leader, 1t
| generally goes to excuses that over
/ whelm him and carry him and his fol-
/ lowers to disaster as witnessed the
! Sully debacle of last spring.
II became. therefore. IN my opinion.
very important TO anticipate correctly
| three possible, the impulses which
| move or set In action this irresistible
I force or public speculation. and II is
/ equally important that any tendency
/ toward exaggeratton opinion and hys-
| tercal actions shall be overcome.
/ Gradually declining prices. IL was
! because ! saw or thought saw that a
4 great many people who had no possible
use for cotton, except 10 resell II az an
| advance, had bought II IN the form Of
contracts that I sold out my cotton on