New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1904-04-26
LONG RANGE FORECASTING.

Though the official weather forecasts in this
and foreign countries for periods not exceed
ing thirty-six hours are not all that could be
wished. reputable meteorologists have long
considered the possibility of obtaining indCa-
tions of the general character Of much longer
periods. \ bold and partly successful at
tempt has been made in Hindostan, by Rlan-
ford and Eliot, for ten or fifteen years. to Sc
cure hints of the probable abundance OF the
rains that accompany the monsoons and that de-
termne whether India is To have a fair har-
vest or 4 famine. The matter has also received
much thought from the experts I'm Washington.
Professor Moore. the present head of the
Weather Bureau refers to it in a report that is
reprinted in connection with the statistical
summaries for 1903, issued a few days ago. The
hope is expressed that the work To be under
taken at the solar physics observatory on Il
mountain top in Virginia before long may
prove useful in this direction. record will
there be made of the spots, facuP and other
visible signs of disturbance on the sun, and
also. by means Of a Langley boometer of
changes in the intensity of the radiation of that
body.
Here IS a comparatively new method OF at
lacking the problem. It's utility cannot yet be
Judged but il is n promising scheme Several
German meteorOOgists i'm the past have thought
that they had detected evidences of n slight
thermal 1uctuatiOn I'm the air from year to
year near the equator, but their results are
rather indecisve and lack precision. Langley's
apparatus is delicate enough to register differ
onces i'm temperature amounting TO only n
milliOnth of a degree. Already. at the Smith
sOnan Institution, he has noted the apparent
persistence for weeks and months OF departures
in one direction or the other from the average
solar output, after proper allowance has been
made for differences in atmospheric absorb
ton. Influences which would interfere with the
accuracy OF the indications have been discov-
cred and eliminated Perhaps some vet re-
main that are unsupported. Even now the fn-
yestigation is tentative. Aside from the sig
nificance to be attached to the fluctuations, If
they shall he correctly registered, more or less
doubt still attaches to the trustworthlness Of
the data. Nevertheless ii is excusabe TO cher
fish confidence in the practical value of the re-
search.
AS soon as records which II is safe TO use
are secured, the collection OF other material
should be undertaken more systematically than
ever before for comparison. Several individual
meteoroogists have hitherto brought together
reports of temperature pressure, wind velocity
and storm frequency. Perhaps no one has done
more Of this than Professor Bigelow, OF the
United States Weather Bureau. Governments
should certainly carry that kind of investiga-
ton much further. The globe must be studied
as a whole. Eliot mentions n notable case
in which over q large portion of the earth there
was a long continued excess of barometric
pressure and n corresponding deficit on the
other side This is only one of many instances
Of probable correlation between unlike condi-
tons which require investigation and proof
Abnormally wet or dry, hot or cold. seasons