The Cairo bulletin. (Cairo, Ill.) 1???-1928, 1904-02-09
FINANCIAL CONDITION OF THE
COUNTRY.

finance in his last letter dated New
York, Feb & He says
THE strong probability of war be,
: tween Russia and Japan at an early
date; the announcement that the gov
eminent was making preparations for
payment Of S5O000,0oO on account Of
the Panama canal; the violent specn-
lat.on ii cotton. coffee and wheat,
as well as the unexpected death of
prominent capitalist, all combined
to temporarily unsettle the financial
situation and 70 create slight re-
dictionary tendency Whether this will
continue or not depends very largely
upon future developments in the mon
/ " market, and the oncoming war will
of course, be the most important fac
| tor in this respect, because any i'm.
portant disturbance of the European
markets must inevitably be reelected
here.
1T is, Of course, impossible to pre-
diet what demands war between
Russia and Japan will make upon the
worlds money market. The mccr-
tainties Of war are proverbial Yet
the chances are that these demands
will not be serious Both countries
have thus far made very extensive
bellicose preparations without I'M
usual outside borrowings; both eoun-
tries have far. from exhausted their
own momentary resources. and, while
the last Russian budget was a poor
4 one. both Russia and Japan could. if
/ necessary, carry on hostilities for a
considerable period without heavy
! borrowings. In all probability how
ever one If not both of the confess
\ tants would put out loan to relieve
the pressure of taxation at home. the
amount of which would be largely gov
t-eG hy the esis2ncies and length Of
tao struggle, Experts generally agree
aas tac war will be Of short dura,
ticn, and that a decisive victory at
ca would bring il quickly to an end.
There are some, whose opinion is en-
titled TO much weight. who expect
peace considerably within a year after
the outbreak; but, as already said.
predictions as to war are VIGOROUSLY
unreliable; for example. the late Boer
war, which everybody expected would
prove only a matter Of a few weeks.
lasted over two years. The conclu.
sion to be derived, however. from such
comparisons is that no heavy demands
from either Russia or Japan are in
immediate prospect, and the chances
OF short struggle materially dimiin-
ish the probability Of serious distur.
bancc in the International money mar.
set A further fall on the declaration
OF war might be expected in foreign
security values which would be par
tally reflected here; though, on the
other hand it might develop that
the situation had been partly discount
ed in advance.
The announcement that the govern
ment had decided to make a call Of
20 per cent of the public funds ON
deposit with national banks towards
| the $50,000000 canal payment was
somewhat of a surprise. Additional
calls Of 10 per cent. will follow until
the full payment is made; and official
assurance Is given that the payment
| viii be conducted so as TO create the
least possible effect upon the money
market The value of these as
snrances depends very largely upon
circumstances which the secretary
cannot control Gold exports can pos
sibly be averted provided there is a
sufficient supply on exchange in which
90 invest, the proceeds Of which could
be al once redeposited in our banks.
The payment to Europe, however. will
be materially lessened by the fact that
very considerable portion. perhaps
half. of the Panama stock Is already
held IN the United States t1ufortun
ately the present high prices of cottoh
and wheat do not encourage expgrts.
and while hitherto we have largely
prohted by the figures and the supply
Of bills has ben large. indications sup.
gest that values have reached the
limit for export. The monetary sit
! uation is further complicated by the
fact that bank loans in New York have
expanded over s100,O00.000 during the
last five weeks and now stand near
the sl,oGo.000,000 mark. It is quite
evident, therefore. that should any
further stress be put upon the money
market thsrs zili b z calling Ct
.oaEs and q caase, asnt increase n
Interest rates. Ba1k osae.ais h5u.
aTss show NJ uneas!asss over TIE
future.
\ "Aaother unsettliHg feature is thst