The morning Astorian. [volume] (Astoria, Oregon) 1899-1930, 1904-06-29
FLOOD GUESS
INACCURATE
Forecaster BeaIes TO Discontinue
Yearly Estimates as to the
Rise Of Oregon Rivers.
TOO UNCERTAIN BUSINESS
Effort to Predict Extent OF
Spring Floods Rendered Diff
Cult by Conditions Not TO
Be Controlled.

For several years past o feature Of
the weather bureau reports for Oregon
has been an estimate OF the probable
rise OF the Columbia and Willamette
rivers. published about April I Of each
the Portland forecast oficiai. Il 10
doubtful whether these estimates will
be continued after this year.
The height Of the annual rise de-
lpends primarily upon the rapidity with
which the snow melts In the noun
talns. and this In turn is governed
lby the warmth Of the weather, Under
normal conditions II spring tempera-
ture the weather bureau has only to
ascertain the amount Of snow that
has fallen In the mountains to esti-
probable extent OF the spring food
In the rivers. With a given depth Of
snow in the mountains there must
be a certain rise In the rivers, pro-
vlded the snow melts at a normal
rate. But II the temperature In April
land May shows any considerable de-
parture from the normal. or IL there
should be alterations OF heat and cold
so that the thawing OF the snow is
interrupted, the calculations OF the
weather bureau viii be upset, and its
estimates of the rise Of the rivers viii
be falsefed. These estimates have
been published about April /, while
the height OF he spring rise is usually
reached In the latter part OF Of May or
In June.
Il have come to the conclusion that
II Is of little use to try to predict the
extent Of the spring foods said Mr..
Beals. 1--WE fell down badly this year.
In our March report we predicted that
with normal temperatures In April and
May. the food crest at Portland would
be 2e feet. The maximum high water
mark reached was 2O.s feet. But our
estimate was made. OF course, upon
the assumption that the spring weather
would be normal and In this we were
disappointed. After the SHOWS began
to melt the river rose to a height Of
2O,s feet then became stationary there,
owing to sudden cold spell in the
mountains which kept the river at
that level for about three weeks. Tne
result was that the snow melted away
very gradually. A larger volume Of
snow has gone out this year than u.s.
ual, but It melted in such way as
to give less flood. Last year, with
less snow in the mountains, the flood
crest at Portland was "a feet, or more
than three feet higher than this year,
"The unusually warm weather In
April of this year started the snow
down and the rivers began to rise.
Then came the change to colder
weather and the rise was suddenly
checked. We could not foresee such a
departure from the usual weather, and
so our predictions proved to be mis-
taken.
"There is another factor which we
have to consider in making these esti-
mates. The Snake and the upper Co
lumbia both rise In the spring for the
same cause.-the melting of the noun
tain snows--and If the flood crests on
both reach the junction Of the rivers
simultaneously, 1t means much higher
water on the lower Columbia than
otherwise, Ordinarily the Snake river
crest passes the crest before the crest
on the upper Columbia comes down
for the reason that the drainage area
Of the Snake is farther to the south
and SO more subject to warm weather
But when high water is reached sim
on both rivers then we get
our highest water on the lower river.
Il have about concluded that here
after I will make no more predictions
rs to the height the river will reach,
but will content myself with giving
he public the information we gather
is to the amount of snow in the noun
aims. People can then do their own
guessing for themselves"
Russian Bravery.
Here is story Of Russian bravery.
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