The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1904-05-04
Hayashi Forecasts Results.
CIV the Associated Pressl

(By the Associated PreSS.
London. May 2.-Baron Hayashi,
the Japanese Minister here, who has
been recipient of numerous kilograms
of congratulations OF the Japanese
successes on the Yalu and especially
on the results of the first serious land
| fighting, said to the Associated Press
today:
1.-The immediate result Of General
Kurokis success will probably be a
movement on Feng-Huan-Ch
which the Chinese had fortified with
their usual brick structures.
"Since the commencement OF the
war the Russians doubtless have add
ed earthworlls but their loss of guns
yesterday must seriously diminish
| their defensive strength.
81 understand though [ cannot
vouch for the absolute accuracy OF
the statement, that Russia had only
one hundred guns in Manchuria If
that is the case, her artillery strength
has been diminished almost one-third.
"They fight we'll, those Russians,
and Feng Huan Cheng will not be
taken without a hard struggle, unless
General Kuropatkin again changes his
plan of campaign. The announce
ment that the Russians would not con-
test the crossing of the Yalu has
proved. as we thought, to be mislead-
| make a determined resistance. but he
either underestimate our strength or
disposed his forces in the belief that
he would not venture a frontal attack.
81 take it from the dispatches re-
ceived that we have now practically
secured control of both banks of the
Yalu. In consequence, our base viii
probably be moved to Antung!
Reviews the Future Struggle.
| Reviewing the whole future of the
struggle that has just commenced in
such deadly earnest on land, Baron
| Hayashi said:
'The duration of the war must lie
rather with Russia than with Japan.
| For the moment the military advan
| tage is with us, for Kuropatkin has
| extended his front and we can strike
| where and when we will. Our aggres-
| sive movement may be carried on to
| Mukden, perhaps to Hardin and per-
| haps even further, but before long
| there must come n stage of the cam
| paign where Russia will assume the
| role of invading power and where we
| must act solely on the defensive. From
| the beginning it has been so, and our
aggression is and has been a means
| towards the eventual repulsion of an
| invading army.
General Kuropatlin himself prob
actly what point our aggression will
be changed into the defensive. Kufo-
patkin, so / believe, says he will not
undertake to drive us back until he
has 500 600 men ready to take the
field. 1 think what that means is
that at least . per cent of that force
will die from sickness, so that to keep
his force at the maximum required,
| kuropatllin will always have to be
| transporting 1000 men from ST. Pc
tersburg-no small task.
a Threat of Famine.
'This years harvest in Manchuria,
learn, promises to be bad. A mill
lion Russians there in addition to the
| army, must be fed. We have or shall
have closed every source of food sup
ply except by the Siberian railway.
| Even with double tracks and no men
| Or munitions of war to transport,
| the problem of feeding the Kussion
population and army now in Man
churia would be in itself intensely
serious. but with a single track road,
which is Russia's only vital snew, it
seems almost impossible and famine
appears inevitable.
ITO help us sit down and wait all
| these contingencies we are working
day and night on the Korean railroad
and by October the unfinished pOr-
! tlOilS vi TIE iOiO DelNceIl Il uStiil anu
Seoul will be completed and a new
line from Seoul to Win will also be
ready. Locomotives are coming from
| the United States, and as soon as
these arrive we will have a strong
| and rapid line of communication
through Korea, which will almost
| touch our own mainland, and we will
not be likely to suffer from want of
supplies or reinforcements.
Port Arthur and Viadivostocll.
CAS- regards Port Arthur and
Vladivostock, the situation is some
what different. | cannot say any
| thing about the movements of our
other armies that have been mob
| ilized, but there is no doubt that the
Lao Turg Peninsula Will be cut off
from supplies if any success attends
our land forces. Neither Port Ar
thur nor Vladivostock can be taken
from the sea front. but | think you
will find Port Arthur either taken by
| our land officers or starved out by
| September. The Chinese are SNUG
Cling provisions into Port Arthur now
| from Chefoo. but only to an imma-
| terial extent, and that will soon cease
''Vice Admiral Togo doubtless will
remain on watch outside Port Arthur.
| By September when the hurricane
season comes, he should be able safe
| " to have lis fleet in a Japanese port.
No fleet. Russian or japanese could
| be particularly effective then. /
scarcely think Russia Will send her
Baltic fleet to face our autumn hurri-
canes. If the ships go before then,
| they will encounter the monsoon
period, which lasts from May ID Au-
| gust and ir which coaling at sea Ell
route to Japan would be exceptionally
dangerous. if not impossible. and
| coaling at sea is the ONLY Way the
Baltic feet can take hand in the
| war
The CensOrs Hand Fails.