The Hawaiian gazette. [volume] (Honolulu [Oahu, Hawaii]) 1865-1918, 1904-01-05
JAPAN'S CHANCES IN
A WAR WITH RUSSIA

to Pacific waters. Nevertheless, thinks
the latter organ. there is not much
doubt of Japan's ability to defeat SIN
the Russian ships at present
in the Far East" II has this opinion
of, the strategic situation generally:
Moreover, the difficulty of Russia
reinforcing her Far Eastern fleet Is
much enhanced by the fact that the
Japanese island OF Formosa lies in the
path of her vessels coming from Eu-
rope. occupying much the same position
as BiZerta does on our Mediterranean
line of communications between Gibral-
tar and Malta. Either the Russian Far
Eastern squadron must go south and
rendezvous somewhere off the coast of
Cochin China. or both squadrons must
rendezvous to the west in the Pacific.
reproducing to some degree the con-
dition of our naval maneuvers this
year. But, If the latter alternative be
adopted. the coaling difficulty becomes
increasingly acute. The third choice Is
for the Russians to give battle with
their existing squadron to clear tn"
way. In which case probably defeat
awaits them.
Looking at the strategical situation
generally, it can only be said that, IN
the first sign of Russia's intention still
further to reinforce her Far Eastern
fleet, it is to the interest of Japan to
commence hostilities."
The French newspapers profess to be
infinitely amused at what they call the
interested strategy" OF British organs
The Temps Paris) is surprised that the
great ally of France should be even
suspected of playing that comic-opera
trick with the trainloads of regiments.
Russia" we read. has abundance Of
men," The Journal des Debats (Paris)
is convinced that Russia is too strong
on the sea for Japan to cope with her.
1t has been studying the statistics, and
it finds them crushing" in a sense dire
to Japan. The Russian regiments in
Manchuria and on the frontiers of the
territory in dispute are ''welldrilled,
ably led, eager for a dash into Korea
and at Japan" The war, therefore, will
not be exclusively naval In this maze
of contradictory opinions, the London
Spectator has tried to look at the whole
subject from a disinterested point of
view. 1t fears that war may not be-
far off. I'VE fear the probabilities of
war between Russia and Japan are
greater than the probabilities of peace.
But it sees many powerful forces max
ing for peace, and it warns its, readers
from rash conclusions. Here is it's sum-
ming up:
1T will be difficult, if war does break
out, to form even an opinion as to the
respective chances of success. The
Continent will at once decide for Rus
sia but the Continent does not quite
appreciate all the advantages which
Japan, if she can but clear her own
waters, will at the outset possess. She
is very near to the scene, she Will fight
in her own climate, and her military
organization is almost German in its
perfection. She has a larger population
than France, her army includes SIX
hundred and thirty-two thousand drill
ed men, and her people are said to be
unusually ready to serve. Those re-
sources are, of course, nothing to those
of which the Car can dispose; but the
maintenance of mighty army many
thousand miles from its real base is n
most difficult and costly task; commu-
nications will depend upon single line
of railway, which in part of it's course
passes through disaffected country;
and the Russians will be in climate
to which they are but little accustomed
That may seem a tritie, but 1t will ag-
gravate an historic difficulty of Russian
generals, the readiness of their ill-fed
soldiers to die when pressed by climatic
or other unaccustomed seventies. The
Japanese, moreover, will march quicker
will know the country better-the Rus
sian fuss about spies and maps prac-
tically admits this-and will be less dis
couraged by occasional defeat. All
these considerations are, however, we
fully admit, trivial when compared with
the great unknown quantity upon whicn
the oldest soldier in Europe would nesi-
tate to offer decided opinion. Can a
thousand Japanese in the open resist
and drive back thousand ,Russians?"