The morning Astorian. [volume] (Astoria, Oregon) 1899-1930, 1904-09-30
REVISED ESTIMATES IN ASIA.


Some revised estimates of Russian strength and
Russian prospects in Manchuria have recently been
put forward by authorities certainly well informed
and either impartial or more probably, inclined tt
be favorable to Russia, says the New York Tribune
One is that of the German Colonel Gaedke CORE
spondent of the Berlin Tageblatt Writing from
Lao Yang just before the great battes he estimates
that by the middle of December from 34S to 800
battalons of Russian infantry are expected to reach
Manehura. He does not say whether that means
battalions ON peace or on war footing, but we
may assume the latter. In that case, battalion
means 1000 men, and the army to be massed in Man
churia before Christmas will be about $4,000 strong
That estimate pretty closely comedies with those
have hitherto made to the effect that there were
$4,000 Russians in Manchuria to start WITH and that
the railroad was able to carry thither 1000 day.
From the middle of February to the middle of De-
cember then, 305, 900 men would be forwarded max
ing $4,000 in ALL without, of course, allowing for
losses Colonel Gaedke we note estimates that there
were not more than $4,000 Russians in southern
Manchuria at the outbreak of the war; If by south
ern Manchuria he means Port Arthur and the i'm
mediate vicinity that estimate also corresponds with
ours of long ago.
But now comes another observer by comparable
authority. This is Mr.. Naudeau, the French CORE
spondent of the Paris Journal, writing from Liao
Yang just after the battles He says frankly that
the gallant Russian army has been beaten in the
mar nf bach 10
retreat rapidly northward, and that the Japanese
will soon make triumphant entry into Mukden
The Russians have, he says, proved to be inferior in
effective numbers, in guns and in enthusiasm Their
army will have to be reorganized somewhere in the
north out Of reach of the japanese, and it will take
vided for by doubling the number Of the army corps
and the morale of the service must be improved by
soldiers in active service for the reserves
which now form large part of the army in Man
churia. How largely the Russian army must be re-
inforced may be estimated from his statement that
the Russian general staff calculates the present Jap
anese strength at from 100000 to 100000 That
estimate, too we may add, comedies with those al
ready made in these columns If it is correct then
the Russians will have to wait until long after the
middle of December before they can hope to take
The aggressive for the 355000 soldiers that Colonel
Gaedke looks for by that time as maximum will
not be able to make headway against 100000 Jap
anese-or more, for the japanese force will also keep
IN increasing.
That is Mr. Naudeau's view Of the case "a Rus
'ian offensive" he says sis no longer possible for
ome time" He still thinks that if Russia sets her
eeh to the task she will win in the end But to do
she will have to make astounding efforts and sac
'fces out Of all proportion to the end to be gained
Of course if she is fighting for national pride there
3 nothing more to be said She must keep on to the
litter end perhaps until she has built new navy
md another railroad or two across the continent.
But this sympathetic French abserver justly urges
hat there are times when national pride should not
,e bndly needed, and he thinks the present is one
# them 1t would, in his opinion, be to the interest
# both beligerents-to say nothing Of the unfor-
innate inhabitants Of the ravaged provinces-to re-
lounce their national pride and make such mutual
Concessions as would end the war In that opinion
large part Of the world will heartily agree with
m That either Of the belligerents will accept and
ct upon it is greatly to be doubted If they do not
hen these revised estimates Of the situation simply
Orecast an indefinite prolongaton Of the war, with
II its miseries and irreparable losses
-R