The Wisconsin tobacco reporter. (Edgerton, Wis.) 1877-1950, 1904-01-08
New York.
NEW YORK, Jan. 2 1904.

How will the trade fare in Nineteen
Hundred and -Four? is the question to-
day in almost everybody's mind and on
his lips. What can the trade expect
from the year now launched on it's i'm
mutable course? Is it to turn out bet
ter or worse than the year just passed?
Will trade expand or contract? Will
the volume of business expand and the
profits contract in the same ratio? Or
will it remain stationary? Will the af-
fairs of the trade be disturbed again by
unfavorable legislation or will it succeed
for once in obtaining legislation in con-
formity with it's interests? All these in
terrogations and many more of like tenor
are generally obtruding themselves on
the threshold of new year and he would
be veritable prophet who could forecast
their replies with some sort of exactness
But it needs not the divine gift of proph-
ecy to take peep into the future from
the lookout of the past provided there is
an unobstructed view ahead.
It seems to be the prevailing opinion
that presidential year is not exactly
conducive to business enterprises of such
magnitudes as to stimulate prosperity,
and as the current year will witness
paign it is being assumed that no big
strides will be made in the country's
material welfare.
IF, therefore, the retailers prospects
are good the manufacturer should profit
by them, too. The cigar output may
not increase in the same phenomenal
ratio it did in Nineteen Hundred and
Two, but it is sure to increase some hun
lno ho tot
duction of Nineteen Hundred and Three.
turbances in view that could possibly
cause retrogression. The effects of the
Cuban Reciprocity Treaty will adjust
themselves in time. The policy an
nounced by the Havana Tobacco Co.,
the dominating factor in this issue is re-
assuring. If this policy is adhered to
there will be no appreciable reduction in
the price of the imported cigars, and the
dime cigar will remain the undisputed
domain of our clear Havana cigar indus
in the duty on Havana leaf may tend to
manufacture of seed and Havana cigars
as leaders in the field. The genius of the
American manufacturer is known to de-
velop the qualities for turning even the
worst possible situation into q source Of
profit for him and our cigar manufactur
ers have in the past five years exhibited
such ingenuity as to vault successfully
every impediment placed in their way.
Least of all need the leaf trade enter
tain any apprehension as to it's affairs
this year. True, the bulk of the domes-
tic cigar will be no envious object either
for the eye or palate, and in ordinary
times, or rather in the overpraised olden
times, investments under these clrcum-
stances would certainly have proven dis
6strous. For the weather last summer
was the most unfavorable for maturing
perfect leaf crop. But we do not live
IN the old times when manufacturers
were in the habit of supplying their
needs for two or three years from one
years good crop. The biggest manu-
facturer as we'll as the smallest lives to-
day from hand to mouth in his supply of
leaf. And while this changed condition
may somewhat injuriously affect the
policy and business of some houses, it
has the superior merit of equalizing the
leaf trade and creating a demand for
come. 1t may therefore be safely pre-
dicted that last years crops, whatever
their shortcomings, will find ready con-
sumers and that the leaf market will be |
as brisk and steady as it was last year,
if not more SO. For the supply is made |
quate to the demand that will be made |
for it, particularly if the cigar industry |
should increase it's output, as the pros
poets are that it will. And there is no |
old stock on hand to make up the de6c- |
iency in sight of both the quantity and
quality. The prospects for the Sumatra
market are still fairer. Even more than
last year the Sumatra will domineer the
wrapper market, because still lesser
quantity of domestic wrapper leaf will
be available this year. If. therefore, the
new Sumatra crop should but equal last
years importations in regard to yield
and price further increase in its con-