The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1904-12-29

Especial to News and Observer
New York. Dec 29.-I believe this
seasons crop of American cotton TO be
1890 900 bales or over. The census
returns show that up to the 18th OF
December, 1871 cotton producing coun-
ties in the South had ginned counting
two round bales as the equivalent Of
one square bale) 11,848,113 bales of
cotton. The census department fur
ther states that the remaining unre-
ported counties had ginned this sea-
son, November IA. 1904, S9.261 bales,
counting round bales as half bales.
very conservative estimate of the
total quantity they have ginned this
season up to December 18th is 100-
600 bales, on which basis I estimate,
therefore, that all the counties in the
cotton belt had ginned up to the 18th
OF December this year 11.94S.113, or
practically 10000, 600 bales. To this
must be added the cotton, picked and
unpicked, but not ginned on Deem
Der 18th Last season there were
gInned after December 18th. 1924
S85 bales and the season before last
1,125,442 bales. l believe that much
more remains To be ginned this year
than in either of the two previous
seasons hence my estimate of 49,
500, 900 bales or more. The theory
that this amount will not be marketed
if of no Importance. Cotton is grown
to be sold, and it will not be destroy
ed. 1t will shortly be recognized that
the crop is not to be reckoned by port
receipts and the stocks at thirty-one
arbitrarily selected interior towns.
The cotton so coming into sight is
for the most part sold, and is not a
factor of depression II is the unsold
cotton in first hands yet to find mar
ket which will carry prices downward.
1..D I, -
Gated quantity ginned was cas- aboVe)
II 100000 bales. There were in sight
6,S44.332 bales. There were ginnez.
but not in sight therefore, 5,155,66
bales to which must be added still to
be ginned at least $500. 900 bales, or
total of 6.655,66S bales in farmers
hands invisible and unsold on Decem-
Der 18th. Such a situation is without
a precedent in the trade. 1t cannot
but result in a prolonged and acute
depression to probably the lowest
prices ever reached. The worlds spin
ming trade Impoverished by last years
high prices and the previous years
corner is without the resources of
credit requisite for the accumulation
of large surplus stocks. Even We're
it otherwise it is not to be expected
that manufacturers will be so lack
ing in commercial sagacity as to buy
largely at prices that are not as yet
even moderate when considered in re-
lation to conditions present and pro-
spective. A surplus at the end OF the
season cf approximately 100000
bales mas generally resulted in seven
cent cotton at sometime during the
spring or summer A surplus of over
200 600. 900 bales has been estimated
and the price fell to ) 90 cents and
did not advance above ID cents for
nearly year IN my opinion, the sur
plus supply over the most literally
estimated consumption for this sea-
soIle will not be less than 2,500,000
bales. 1t makes no difference whether
il Is visible or not. 1t viii be on hand
ana must be sold. its selling Will
probably carry cotton to prices as low
rs the prospective situation is unpre-
cedented. On the facts any other con
cu:-on is illogical
THEO. II. PRICE.