The watchman and southron. [volume] (Sumter, S.C.) 1881-1930, 1904-11-16
Long Range Weather Forecasts.


all the sciences. from tie earliest
dawn of civilization, has been ham
pered and burdened by the actions Of
men incapable of mastering the prin-
ciples involved III the study of science,
yet had the Aeenness to be alive to
the possibilities of science for the
public good These men were un-
scrupulous enough to assume the, to
them false garb of knowledge, and in
that false garb pose, apostles of the
science, for personal gain and utterly
regardless of the good of humanity.
In their false guise, it is true, these
imposters were but the laughing stock
of men of science and deemed un-
worthy of serious notice, while the
ign GRANT aud credulous believed more
readily in the false than in the true,
as the former promised more, were
more mysterious, claimed to know it
all, and it is too sadly true, that the
people in ages past, as in our own
age, delighted in being humbugged
and were willing to pay for their
pleasure.
Thus it was that the beautiful
science of astronomy that demonstrat-
es with such exactness the motion Of
the heavenly bodies and that teaches
other properties that pertain to them
only, gave rise to the astrologer- who
made the credulous belive that planets
had an influence on the desIinies Of
men, until a wiser age destroyed the
fallacy Thus-it was that chemistry
gaves rise to the alchemist who in; his
mysterious and preternatural processes
made the credulous believe that he
had the command of the much sought
for elixer of life. Thus it was the science
Of medicins gave rise to the quack
with his nostrums and who, even to-
day, deludes the sick and afflicted
with mis- deadly doses; and thus it is
that the beautiful and intricate
science of meteorology and weather
forecasting has given rise to it's own
peculiar parasites, host of long
range weather forecastes, that in a
mysterious and wholly irrational way
claim to be able to foresee that which
patient, hard and intelligent study
of meteorology by learned men in all
| parts of the world, has not been able
| to do, and by them has been declared
| impracticable.
It is true that our own Weather Bu-
reau and the meteorological services OF
other countries have demonstrated
the practicability of forecasting the
weather for from one, two or in very
| favorable conditions three days in ad-
vance with reasonable accuracy, but
honest forecasters, with one accord,
deny the possibility of fogecasting the
weather for month or a season in
advance, and yet these charlatans,
fakes, or whatnoss, who make a fair,
though fraudulent living by selling
such forecasts to the public, and,
what is still more strange, reputable
papers, that ordinarily are not will
ing parties to any fraud publish such
! forecasts in their columns.
The desirability Of long range fore
casts is admitted, their usefulness,
if they were possible. cannot be gain
said, and their attempt is not depre-
Gated, on Che contrary success is ar
IDENTIFY hoped for and encouraged on
rational grounds, but their practica-
bility is, at present, wholly denied
and can be shown by any attempt,
however friendly, to verify them
whenever made. People who are fa-
miliar with meteorology know this,
but the many have not studied the
science, and Influenced By their desire
for knowledge and misled by the spu-
rious though plausible claim of IN
principled long range forcasters,
readily buy and believe the goods to
be genuine. Few test its worth by
actual verifcation, out credulously
accept an accidental agreement be-
tween the forecasted weather and
what actually occurred as convincing
proof, while the failures that so nu-
merously happen, if noted at all are
charitably forgiven and forgotten. It
would indeed be strange if soDe of
the long range forecasts did hot prove
correct. for the chances are about
as one in five that they will, if ordi-
nary intelligence is exercised in max
| ing them, and it is this probability
of chances that gives life to the long
range forecaster. But he has other
deceptive devices such as clothing his
! forecasts in the most general and in
definite language, he guards carefully
against any attempt to disprove his
forecasts and keeps open loophole
for escape, and also stating that he
has in mind some other section Of the
country where the forceasted condi-
tions did actually occur.
While meteorology has made rapid
progress in the last fifty years, and
the fact has been amply demonstrated
that the weather is governed by laws
as certain in their operations as those
governing other phenomena Of nature,
yet it has not advanced far enough to
enable the weather to be forecasted
for season or even a month in ad-
vance. The Weather Bureau makes
no claim to be able to make correct
forecasts for periods longer than one,
two or at least three, days and for the
| longest period there must be very de-
cided conditions as shown by the daily
survey of the atmosphere by its nu-
merous trained and skillful observers.
With all the skill and training by the
best talent available and with as con-
scientious effort as true and honest
men are capable of mistakes will and
do occur.
Tono and cs ref,1l oh0eryat;on has