Fort Mill times. [volume] (Fort Mill, S.C.) 1892-current, 1904-11-23
Long Distance Weather
Forecasts.


men incapable of mastering the prin-
ciples involved in the study OF science.
yet had the keenness tC be alive to
the possibilities of science for the pub
lie good. These men were unScrupu-
louS enough to assume to them the
false garb of knowledge, and in that
false garb pose as apostles of the
science, for personal gain and utter
ly regardless of the good OF humanity
In their false guise. it is true, these
imposters were but the laughing stock
OF men OF science and deemed unwor-
thy of serious notice, while the ignor-
ant and credulous believed more
readily in the false than in the true.
as the former promised more. were
more mysterious, claimed to know il
all, and it is too sadly true, that the
people in ages past. as in our own
age, delighted in being humbugged,
and were willing TO pay for their
pleasure.
Thus it was that the beautiful
science OF astronomy that demon
strates with such exactness the mo-
ton OF the heavenly bodies and that
teaches other properties that pertain
| TO them only, gave rise to the astrolo.
ger who made the credulous believe
that planets had an influence on the
destinies OF men. until wiser age
destroyed the fallacy. Thus it was
that chemistry gave rise to the al.
chemist, who in mis- mysterious and
preternatural processes made the
crcdulous believe that he had the
command of the much sought for elk.
er of life Thus it was that the
| science OF medicine gave rise to the
quack with his nostrums. and who.
even today, deludes the sick and az.
fl1cted with his deadly doses; and
thus it is that the beautiful and intri-
cate science OF meteorology and
weather forecasting has given rise to
its own peculiar parasites, q host o.
long range weather forecasters. that
in a mysterious and wholly irrational
way claim to be able to foresee that
which patient, hard and intelligent
study of meterology by learned men
in all parts of the world has not been
able to do, and by them has been
declared impracticable.
1t is true that our own weather hu
reau and the meteorological services
of other countries have demonstrated
the practicability of forecasting the
weather for from one. two or in very
favorable conditions three days in ad-
vance with reaSonble accuracy, but
honest forecaSters, with one accord.
deny the possibility of forecasting the
weather for Il month or a season in
advance, and yet these charlatans,
fakes, or what nots, who make a fair
though fraudulent living by selling
such forecasts to the public, and,
what is still more strange reputable
papers, that ordinarily are not will.
ing parties TO any fraud. publish such
forecasts in their columns
Ir,-, l..lg
casts is admitted, their usefulness. il
they were possible cannot be gainsaid
and thew attempt is not deprecated
On the contrary success is ardcntly
hoped for and encouraged on rational
grounds, but their practicability is, at
present wholly denied and can be
SHOWN by any attempt however friend.
y, 10 verify them whenever made
Peopie who are familiar with meteor.
ology know this, but the many have
not studied the science, and influenced
by their desire for knowledge and mis-.
led by the spurious though plausible
claim OF unprincipled long range fore.
casters readily buy and believe the
goods to ne genuine. Few test its
worth by actual verification. but cred
ulousiy accept accidental agreement
between the forecasted weather and
! "'e "NNuSiIN us convincing
PROOF. while the failures that so nu.
merously happen, if noted at all. are
charitably forgiven and forgotten. 1t
would indeed be strange If some o,
the long range forecasts did not
prove correct, for the chances are as
ABOUT one in five that they will, if or.
Ginary intelligence is exercised in
making them. and it is this probability
OF chances that gives life to the long
! range torccaster. But he has other
deceptive devices, such as clothing
MS forecasts in the most general and
INDEFINITE language; he guards care.
3 lCIiy against any attempt to G!sprove
HlS forecasts and keeps omen a loon.
no!e Tor escape. and also stating that
ne mas in mind some other section
ol tne country where the fCrecaSted
| conditions did actually occur.
While mctcoroloSv IA smade rap
! ia progress in the last fifty years. and
/ the fact has been amply demonstrated
/ that the weather is governed by laws
! as certain in their operations as those
! governing other phenomena of nature
| yet 1T mas net advanced Ear enough
! 10 enable the weather 20 be fore.
| SaSted Tor season or even a month
! IN advance. The Weather Bureau
i:iakes no claim to be able to max,
! correct forecasts for periods longer
| tnan one. two or at longest three DAYS
and for the longest period there mus;
! he very decided conditions. as showD
| by the daily survey OF the atmcsphor,
! by its numerous trained and skillful
! observers. With all the skill and
training of the best talent available
and with as conscientious effort as
true and honest men are capable OF.
mistakes do and will occurr.
Long and careful observation has