Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1904-12-05
TIE BIG DROP IN COTTON
GOVERNMENTS CROP ESTIMATE
SWEPT AWAY PROFITS.
Tremendous Yield Set Spectators by
the Ears and Almost Caused
Panic Among Traders.

Like mad wave from a tormented sea,
the governments crop estimate 2.16200O
bales exclusive of linters), fell upon the
rings" and swept the price away III a
Jiffy at New Orleans Saturday. 1t was a
terrible spectacle, this frenzied battle which
destroyed In a moment the last vestige of
the structure that three years had been re-
quired to erect And with it went the
hope of the farmer for another twelve
months
At first blush the weight of the actual
stuff appears entirely too great for the
south to stagger under, but careful anal
ysis of the situation tempers the effect of
overproduction to a remarkable degree. In
the first place, according to Secretary Hes.
ter, fully so per cent of the crop has at
very good prices already passed out OF
primary hands, giving the growers OF cot
ton an immense amount of good money.
Thus, in many instances the farmer may,
If he chooses market only portion of the
crop yet remaining in his possession.
Briefly, the situation appears to be THIS:
The farmer cannot now sell MS COT
ton at a profit, the welfare of the farmer
being the basis of the welfare of the coun-
try bank-the mortgage burden never yet
helped anybody; the bank In aid1ng the
farmer will aid itself. The cotton mills
CT the world, and especially the mills Oh
the south. now have an unparalleled era
of prosperity before them. Business acu-
men suggests the wisdom of storing away
immense surplus stocks whenever the farn-
er is willing to sell without profit.
The Spectator of course, must be taken
into consideration, for his attitude VIII
surely be a potential factor In the imme-
date future. But even now ne o mas naS
the Speculation has acted well WITHIN the
bounds of restraint.
Farmers to Hold Back Their Cotton.
lanes s. Akers of Inman, Akers & In
man said in Atlanta Saturday: THE effect
unon the farmers and dealers will nat
uralIy be to cause them to hold cotton
where they are not compelled TO sell. On
the present basis of the New York ana
New Orleans markets cotton is not worth
more than IN cents in the country. Unless
the price advances great deal the COTTON
will be carried into another season. spun
ners we think, will be willing TO BUY at
these prices even beyond this years sup
ply, hedging against possible scarcity
next year. If present prices prevail in the
spring our planters Will perhaps reduce
their acreage 20 per cent. for 1t has been
shown that II 100000 bales will bring as
much money as 13,0OO,OO0."
Sharp Declines in Galveston Market.
II a bomb had been exploded in the Gal
weston cotton exchange it could not have
produced greater excitement than the re-
port of the Department of Agriculture. in
dicating a crop of II 10000 bales. Prices
went down with a rush, the net decline
during the halliday session being sixty-two
points. The report dazed operators, as II
was not thought possible for the south to
produce such crop in the face of adverse
weather conditions and the depredations of
the boil weevil and other pests While the
consensus Of opinion is that the bureau es-
innate is several hundred thousand bales
in excess of the actual yield, they admit
there Is no use going behind the govern
rnent report One of the worst effects OF
the slump will be the calling in by the
banks of loans on cotton based at q mar
ket value of 10 cents and thereabouts. The
amount of the loans per bale must be
largely curtailed or loans withdrawn en-
tireiy. A year ago, when the final esti-
mate was received, the net result showed
an advance of nearly one hundred points.
Sully Predicts Five-Cent Cotton.
Daniel ]. Sully, in an Interview Saturday
in New York, predicted that cotton would
sell below cents a pound before the end
of January. Mr.. Sully has become a pro-
nounced bear on the cotton market, and
has completely reversed his position held
last year, because of the record-breaking
proportions Of the crop indicated in the
government report. In addition, Mr.. Sully
says the textile trade Of the world is fac
ing a serious condition of affairs, to adjust
itself to which will, In his opinion, result
In serious losses.