The Savannah morning news., 1904-12-04
COTTON MEN HERE
ON SAFE SIDE
HAD EXPECTED BIG CROP
AND HEDGED ON THEIR HOLDINGS
PRIOR TO THE SLUMP.

Belief General That Crop Was An
Exceptional One-Surprise Came
That 1t Would BE Made So Large
By Government Figures, Which
Have Hitherto Been Under, Rather
Than Above, Actual YieId-Chief
Sufferers Will BE Interior Holders.
Although the Savannah cotton trade
as a whole has been pretty nearly
unanimously bearish in it's opinion of
the size of the crop for probably sew
eral weeks, at least, the enormous crop
promised by the Department of Agri-
culture report, received yesterday,
came as a surprise, for though many
had openly conceded that the crop
would be 100000 or more, an esti-
mate of anything over 100000 had
hardly been looked for from the gov
eminent which has, hitherto, usually
underestimated, rather than overesti-
mated, the size of the crop.
The slump in all branches Of the
trade that followed the publication of
the report hurt none of the local trade,
it is believed, for everybody had had
time to prepare for the decline; the
instruments of the ginners report. pri-
vate advices from all parts of the
the country, and every other indica-
ton of an unusual yield having been
abundant for long time. 1t is under
stood that all members of the trade
having uncovered cotton prepared for
the report by covering Friday or ear
lier and that, as consequence, accounts
generally were about balanced
when the slump in prices came.
Much Depends on Liverpool
Just what will be the result of the
governments report on the future of
the market is question about which
no one wishes to express an opinion so
soon after the catastrophe, as this Will,
in large measure, depend on the &C
ton of Liverpool tomorrow. 1t is con-
coded, however, that the outlook Tor
prices is not a very bright one, and
that the remainder of the crop may
have to be sold at very low figures or
else carried over.
1t is believed by some that a settle
ment of the Russian-Japanese war,
the resumption of operation by the
Fall River mills, or any development
that will cause an increased consump-
ton will materially help matters,
InOuRn even WlIn the IQOS( ldNOIdOlS
| developments the prices must still,
through the sheer weight of the largest
crop ever made, remain much lower
| than have been paid at any time ear
| lier in the season.
The greatest effect from the break
will be felt, it is stated, by the inte-
rior men, who are holding their cot
ton, and those best acquainted with
the situation believe that there is
very large amount of the staple that
| is held. The country banks that have
| advanced money on these holdings may
| also be materially affected, as 1t is
| pretty certain cotton is now below the
value which was used as a basis on
which to advance money. A signifi
cant fact in this connection is that an
| interior bank yesterday wired Savan-
nah for warehouse rates on 1900 bales
| or more cotton that it wishes to ship
to this city and warehouse for the
| present.
Banks Prepared for Slump.
The local banks were prepared for
the slump, for a week or ten days ago,
all that were carrying cotton called for
and secured an additional margin of
| $40 a bale from their customers, an
amount sufficient not onlv to make
| the banks safe on the slump yester-
| day, but on any further decline that
may follow it. AS the local banks have
been careful to advise their interior
correspondents of this action on their
part it is probable that many of these
| have taken like action.
How general was the expectations
among local cotton men of very
| large crop is shown by the estimates
filed at the Exchange prior to the re-
| ceipt of the governments estimate.
| The lowest of these was IL, 21S0O0 and
the highest 1871, 900. In all seventy
four estimates were made and their
average shows the expectation of a
cron Of II 938 97o bales