Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1904-10-31
Certain Democratic States.

will be decided next month. This state
ment follows:
Certain Democratic States.
Fourteen states-Virginia, North Caro-
lima. South Carolina, Florida. Georgia, Ala
bama. Mississippi. Louisiana. Tennessee.
Kentucky Arkansas, Texas Missouri and
Nevada-are certain, according to the rec
ords of the past twenty-eight years. to give
democratic pluralities in November next at
the presidential election. The states having
a hawless record of democratic pluralfties,
1S72-1900, are Georgia. Tennessee, Texas
and Missouri. The only state in the group
showing a steady and regular increase In
total vote. 1S52-l9G0, is Missouri. During the
period 1sS0-19oO the only breaking away
from democratic pluralities occurred in
Kentucky. 1895, and in Nevada 1884 and
1888. The only split electoral vote is that
of Kentucky 1885.
Votes Needed by Democrats.
The certain" states in the democratic
list above represent 154 electoral votes at
the November election of this year. The
whole electoral vote of 1904 being 476, and
one more than half of that number, 239, be-
ing necessary for a choice, it is evident that
IS electoral votes in addition to those of the
states mentioned Will be necessary for a
democratic victory. If the democrats carry
every state in the above list, which is high
electoral vOtes), New Jersey Q2). Connecti-
cut ca. Indiana G5). Montana 90, Idaho 80
and Maryland 80. they will win and have
two electoral votes to spare. If, on the
other hand. they lose the eastern and mid
die group of doubtful states as shown in
the following tables, saving only Maryland
and Delaware CD, they will need the cleo
toral votes of West Virginia ca. Indiana
Q5), Illinois t27). Wisconsin Q3) North Da-
kOta %, Montana g. Colorado (o) and
Idaho t3), to win.
Certain Republican States.
On the other hand, sixteen states-Maine,
New Hampshire Vermont, Massachusetts,.
Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Ohio. Michi-
gam Iowa, Minnesota, Kansas, Nebraska,
South Dakota, Wyoming, Washington and
Oregon-are certain, according to the rec
ord of twenty-eight years .GS72- 1000, to
give republican pluralities in November.
There is absolutely no f1aw IN the record of
Maine New Hampshire. Vermont, Massa-
chusetts, Rhode Island Pennsylvania, Iowa
and Minnesota, Massachusetts, Rhode Is
land Ohio and Iowa show steady In
crease in total vote for the whole period.
1872 1890. The pluralities fuctuate through
out A noticeable feature Of the total vote
Is the heavy Mckinley pluralities of 1886
and 1900. as compared with the pluraiit1es
of previous years. Kansas broke away
twice from the republican column. Nebras-
ka South Dakota. Wyoming, Washington
and Oregon have each dropped out of line
once in the record of twenty-eight years.
The only splits in the electoral vote were
in Ohio, Michigan and Oregon in 1882.
The certain" states in the republican list
above represent 163 electoral votes at the
November election of this year. The whole
electoral vote of 1904 being 476. and one
more than half of that number, 800. being
necessary for a choice, it is evident that 10
electoral votes in addition to those of the
states above mentioned will be necessary In
order to secure republican victory.
How Republicans May Win.
If the republicans carry every state in the
above list, which. is highly probable, and
can carry New York go electoral votes),
New Jersey Q2) and Illinois cd, they will
win with two votes to spare. If, on the
other hand. New York and New Jersey
swing in the opposite direction, it will be
necessary TO supplement the electoral vote
Of Illinois with those of Connecticut "a,
West Virginia 90, California dO), Wiscon-
SIN 13) North Dakota "a, Colorado (o).
Delaware 3D. and Titan 90. As Connectf-
cut usually goes in the same direction as
New York and New Jersey. and as Indiana
is liable 10 vote as New York votes, accord
ing to the record. the onus of making up
the necessary number would fall on Mary
land. which Is inclined, at this writing, to-
ward tn, democratic column.
With this record of certain states, ana
with the complete record and analysis given
in the following pages of the presidential,
congress sionai, state and county votes IN the
sc-called "doubtfuI,~states during the past
twanty-e;gbt years, many interesting com
binations of possible victories in November