The Grit-advocate., 1904-12-23
PROPHETS
MAKE WEATHER PREDICTIONS
Much Damage Done by irresponsible
Pseudo Weather Prophets.-crsdu'
Ious People Influenced to Their
Prejudice.

from the earliest times lnteTest al
the weather for approaching seasons.
in view Of it's bearing upon agricuitu'
raj and other pursuits naturally
prompted efforts to predict the wsa'
ther. says F. II. Brandenburg Of Den
yer In a government bulletin. Note
was made of the conditions that pre-
ceded good or bad weather. and the
temperance of certain conditions
was taken as basis for predicting
certain weather. To these observa-
tions were added others. such as the
flight OF birds. the movement or action
of animals. even aches and pains OF
the human body, and the like. result
ing in the acceptance as true of many
shrewd and interesting observations,
but more that were absurd.
Astronomical phenomena, such as
phases of the moon and the conjunc-
ton OF the planets. of all the most lr-
rational, were and are still credited
by some with control Of the weather.
notwithstanding persistent obserVa-
tions on the part of the leading astron-
omers and meteorologists Of the world
have demonstrated them to be devoid
of influence.
In modern times meteorology is re-
stricted to the department OF natural
philosophy which treats of the wea-
ther, and is naturally the most dim
cult and involved of sciences and
thus far inCaEable of reduction to alb.
solute accuracy, though efforts to OBJ
tain this end have accomplished
much.
Every effort in scientific manner
is also being made to ascertain laws
that will make 1t possible to forecast,
in a general way. whether an ap-
preaching season will conform to or
depart from the weather common to
such season; the time. however, has
not yet arrived, but unlimited observ-
vations thus far made have demon
strated the impossibility OF exceeding
a period Of two or three days In ac-
curate forecasting for particular
date
1t is obvious that an accurate fore
cast for a particular date can only be
made from known conditions. The
forecast itself is predetermination
OF continuance Of or change In the
conditions known to exist at time Of
forecast. 1t is equally obvious, there
fore, that il a change in the atmos-
spheric conditions occurs after fore
cast and during the term thereof, not
scientifically anticipated at the time
of the forecast, the forecast itself
must fail.
These charges in atmospheric condi
lions are constantly occurring during
rf ffr ip,t
and are certain to occur, not once. but
frequently, during the term Of a long
range forecast, and are wholly beyond
human anticipation OF scientific ki.owl-
edge.
This demonstrates cOncluSiveh that.
unless the long-range forccasters are
gifted with divine foresight and fore
knowledge of these changes. a fore
cast for an indefinite period in the fu-
ture can possess no value, and its veri-
flcation is purely an accident, or rather
coincidence. Important interests are
affected by the condition of the
weather, and influenced by fore
knowledge Of its conditions. II is clear,
therefore, that any long-rlnge fore
cast. impossible in nature, must GER
tainly do untold harm. A prophet has
always and will ever attract attention.
We are prone to look into the future.
Trading. generally for gain, upon this
element OF human nature, men spring
into notice from time to time by PIE
tending to forecast. at long range, Sc,
we're storms. droughts and other al
mospherlc phenomena, thus infuenc-
ing the credulous to their prejudice.
In the seasons of the year when
coast storms are of frequent occur
renee, storms are forecast in hazE
way and applicable to the indefinite 10
cality. In the winter, the time Of snow
and wind, snow and wind at som"
place at some indefinite time are for
cast. At other times. terrible flood
or blighting droughts calculated To
strike terror to the hearts OF the timld,
are Sredicted. Little things like rains
throughout limited area, though
foreknowledee thereof would be OF
real benefit. are not deemed worthy OF
consideration by these men to whom
the mysteries of heaven and earth
seem to have been intrusted. The ter
ror of men must be aroused.
Strange to say. when by a mere co.
incidence storm appears or droughj
occurs within the broad confines of the
United States, t.W forecast. unaccred-
tied to place or date. is considered a
verified and the forecaster is regarded
as a phenomenon. The hundreds OF
unverified are buried in oblivion tn,
seemingly accurate one is resurrected
and given publicity to the public detTi
ment, by these diligent so-called fore
casters. Vanity and gain are the on!E
cxplainable reasons for this kind OF
work, since such forecasts do untold
harm. Almaracs have been pubishcd
Tor more than a century, giving in al
vance the weather conditions day b.
day for the ensuing year, and even tor
a century. always, however, without "A
specification of the area to be affected.
A forecast of rain everywhere or any
where in the country. regardless OF the
conditions prevalent elsewhere AT the
time. Such forecasts are as good or .
rather as inaccurate. as worthless. but