New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1904-10-19
TIE BUSINESS OUTLOOK.


Herial development OF the United states IS 70 20
on with approximately the same rate OF pio5iS
which has marked the development OF the -
Ter years. ! believe IL is tair TO ASSUME - :;
generally speaking, something like thal rae %
progress VIII be maintained. Certainly uhe oul-
itok today. with currency uncertainty gNeI
away 10 a securely fixed standard or value W.
a sound ard satisfactory banking position anu
with no left panic consequences 10 De ieCHN-
mod WITH as was the case ten years ago-ce--
tainlv, such situation offers reason icF '!47
S,,es,,forrson that We are in as favorable 20
siiion Tor development IA The next zen ye%rs
period IS .ye were II the beginning Of The last
NATIONS GROWTH IN WEALTH
Ten wears 9gc we haG a population of sixty
eight millions: to-day Il IS eghty-two millions
and ten years hence. with tlis ratio OF increase
the population Of the nlted states VIII De
,linetv-ei CHI millions We viii in the next Ten
years add TO number of popuiation equh
10 one-half OF France. SUCH CROWN III huhpets
mate he'd 10 our wealth of resources. makes the
sort Of material out of which to shape an en-
Iirely new level Of statistics marking the coun-
try's material progress.
The total wealth Of the United states. accord
ing to the best estimates which We have, has
risen in ten years from S4o.VhOEaooo 10 AlF3.-
OUO.0Oo.00o. Ten years more OF increase WIZ
make the wealth of this country Sl4O,VDo,hn.-
Wg0. When remember that sucn total viii
compare with the total Of Sl2OJ0.ogoOO0 in
1856 the accumulation is seen TO be at a rate
almost incredible.
our money stock has increased IN ten years
from Sl,60O.0No.OOO TO more than S250OuOonon
and every dollar of il is sound ana every dollar
or il is on a parity with gold. The actual gold
stock itself increased in that period S2,Io00oUO
II the money stock increases in the next ten
years in the same amounts. we viii have Sb,4Va.-
tND.eO of circulation at the END Of that period
Incidentally il is interesting 10 note that ma
tiOnai bank note circulation in the last ten years
has risen from SlG2O0OO0o to S4lloOOHo, and
one might stop TO wonder if this rate OF increase
As go on, where the government bonds are 10
come from IN the next ten years to provide for
a further increase of national bank circulation
of S2JOyO00.GOO or S30O0OoO0O. Such inquiry
points inevitably to the necessity of some change
sn our national banking laws i'm the due course
of time.
National bank deposits I'm ten years have
doubled going up from 81 ,GOOO00.OOO TO $500
100000 State bank deposits in that time have
irebled ed marking an increase OF from about
A careful estimate OF the total bank deposits
in the United States to-day. national. State, saw
sngs banks and trust companies, brings them up
70 a grand total of SlO0D0O00OO0 and that
compares with total ten years ago Of $1,000
100000 The increase has been well over double
Will II double again and VIII we nave S-O,Opp,-
100000 deposits in 1912 If only make the
same actual gain. viii have over $1,000
100000. and. barring any unexpected inter
ference with our expansion, l believe that that
IS a conservative figure aud inside the prohabili-
sies.
you represent. do you not anticipate as much
growth in the next ten years as you have had
sn the last? If you do and if those anticipations
nre fulfilled and the increase is general the total
of banking resources at the end Of another de-
cade must certainly be an astounding one. Your
own banks in Illinois have far outSIrlpped the
average of the country. The total deposits OF
national and State banks in Illinois have in
creased IN ten wears from S2l3 ODD0DO to sou.
100000 Why should they not make similar gain
sn The next ten years and Illinois deposits stand
at SS00.OOOO00?
tngs increase from s., 200O00000 to S1.900.000,
eco. With only an equal actual Increase, we VIII
have railroad earnings OF S2G00000O0o ten
years from now: While, II the percentage or IN
crease OF the last decade We're to be maintained,
fhe figures would reach S3OOoOO0OOO The
lower total is the fairer presumption. With
gross earnings reaching such figure, with con-
stantly improving methods Of administration
and with more perfect roadbeds and equipment
we may expect TO see steadily increasing ecOno-
my Of operation. Is il not fair TO presume. then,
that these vast gross earnings. coupled with a
" provide for an increasingly satisfactory re-
turn upon railroad investments?
GREAT INCREASE IN PRODUCTION.
viii not weary you with too many statistics
II you are interested in pursuing such line Of
inquiry get the Monthly Summary of the Blu
,,esn az Statistics from Vyasbinp+on In its z.az
II is az great an exposition OF statistics as IS
This Worlds Fair an exposition Of material
things, and il VIII We'll repay study You Will
see from the figures which you Will find there
for instance, that our foreign trade, which ten
years ago footed 81 J0O000O00, was this year
S2,4JOoeO.OOO. Our exports Of agricultural prod
ucts may not increase much from present fig
ares, but ii is safe 10 say that our increasing
command of foreign markets for our manu-
features Will perhaps bring the total of our for
sign trade TO S:}VD0000(00 in the next deca1e.
You viii see that national bank loans and dis
counts, which were under S2OOOOOOOOO ten
years ago, are now So. 725.OO0O00 a similar in
crease would carry US above s.. 900. 100000 in
oatonal bank loans ten years hence. Let us
hope those loans viii not increase with uncon-
Sentative rapidity. Bank clearings Of the cOun-
Try have Increased two and a half times in ten
years. If progress were to continue at this rate
we would show bank clearings of more than
s&eo.Oeo.eBD,ts9O at the end Of the next years
You VIII find that the total mineral production
OF the United States has increased in value from
SOJV,OOO.O0O 10 double that figure II there is
reason 10 suppose that this increase viii con-
finue, we will yet make record Of 50 600 900 90
as the annual product of our mines. Our pro-
duction OF steel has doubled in ten years The
value or the product OF our cotton mills in
creased 30 per cent. The volume of business as
measured by the receipts Of the Postofice De-
partment. shows almost 100 per cent increase,
those receipts coming up from $40 100000 in
1854 10 Sl44ec00eO for the present fiscal year
1heSe Illustrations might be indefinitely con-
flnued but have given enough to point the one
conclusion which wish TO emphasize and thar
Is that you men who administer the great bank
ing resources OF the State Of Illinois need 10 keen
constantly before you some OF these broad statis-
tics OF our material progress Their study can
sot help but be encouraging and useful They
must lead TO the conclusion that IN the COM
llinatiOn Of population and natural resources We
stand, as country, absolutely unrivalled and
with nothing TO balk our progress but our own
mistakes.
If We look abroad, We see England str,,ssli,s
Mnder most adverse conditions, a great uortion ~
her Industrial population actually underfel
ana million people receiving aid from her
poor laws We see in France a nation grown
rtch by thrift. a nation where economy has he
come a disease. and in the growth OF II am in
3uatiVe Tor new accomplishment has been lost
in Italy we See a great industrial ava be,irey
puf conditions Sun so hard that large percent
age OF our eight hundred thousand immierants
annually come from that country In C;erroaD,,
we md barren land yielding from the dalds
most meagrely and from the mines hardly at all