The Washington times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1902-1939, 1904-08-01

l do not pretend to have definite infor-
nation; in fact. no one has outside
/ few Russian officers. whose business is
I TO know. But. in view OF all the cir
cumstances, ! think It may be safely
assumed that Port Arthur has plenty
! OF ammunition. Most fortresses are
I provided with machinery for reloading
: rife cartridges and there may be such
IN Port Arthur. II is a customary pre-
caution.
But. making all possible allowances.
there Is a limit to the amount of am
muntiOn in the town. Sooner or later,
l-unleSS TepleniShed. il will be expended.
( How long IL Will last depends upon the
frequency and severity Of the japanese
attacks
| a high japanese officer once told me
/ In discussing the possibility Of a war
/ between his country and Russia japan
would take Port Arthur at any cost.
/ When l asked him what the fortress
would be worth, ne replied:
Fifty thousand men"
| No doubt, by this time. the spirit in
/ which the japanese have entered the
I war is fully understood throughout the
world, even by the Russians: and so
| the idea Of their deliberately sacrificing
! ooOUV soldiers to gain an important sue
! cess Will seem less fantastic than II
otherwise might
Can the Japanese take Port Arthur
at a cost of $1,000 men? This is the
problem in mathematics I mentioned
How much ammunition will it require
under conditions of modern warfare TO
kill and disable 10000?
Here is the kernel OF the nut the
Japs are trying to crack at the extrem-
ity Of the Liao-Tung peninsula.
1t is impossible to make an exact
demonstration OF this proposition. but
1t can be arrived at by approximation,
and the figuring OF the Japanese officer
quoted showed that there could not pos
sibly be in Port Arthur enough ammu-
milton to dispose Of more than 5000
men, provided the assaults were care
! fully and systematically conducted and
there was no renewal Of che supply. II
these are the calculations of the Jap
anese general staff and a relief Of Port
Arthur seems imminent the spigOt may
be turned and the blood let run. For
, once its ammunition is finished the
great fortress must surrender.
Is IL worth such price2 The Rus
sian Asiatic fleet the garrison, guns
and stores. and the southern terminus
of the Manchurian Railway certainly
are a tempting prize.
That the generals who are directing
the operations of the japanese are alive
to the Importance Of taking Port Ar
thur IS certain.
And it is equally certain that the
Russian Government and General Ku-
ropatlOin are awake 10 the necessity Of
holding the town. 1t is scarcely con-
ceivable that Kuropatkin will leave
Port Arthur 70 its fate. 1t is reasonable
to believe that as soon as his prepaTa-
tons are complete the Russian general
WIFI advance 20 raise the siege, pro-
vided the town still holds out.
While the whole OF central and south
err ManchuIia may be. properly consid-
] 80 = l.. II
il is prOba = that the important en-
gagements Wa be south Of a line
drawn from SinmuntrOn on the west TO
| the mouth OF tn Yalu on the east
at present onl -. supply base and sort
OF adminisu At < headquarters for the
NicerOy'S So. It Is not likely that
Mukden will be Included unless the
campaign should '"sult unfavorably TO
the Russians.
Zone Of Heavy Fighting.
To the east toward the Yalu, the
country is comparatively rough and
mountainous, and, since the Jaop aes
army is already past that barrier, the
heavy fighting will probably be con-
fined TO a zone extending twenty-five
| TO forty miles on either side OF the
railway.
This may seem a limited space within
i.
| but there are definite reasons for the
| limitation, and, after all, both armies
can find plenty Of room in which to
l maneuver.
The japanese plan, exclusive Of pos
/ sible diversions in the direction Of
| Vladivostok and the Amur, now seems
plain. Their armies have been landed
and their movements sufficiently pro-
! crossed 10 show their main primary OBJ
| jective. This undoubtedly Is Port Ar
| thur and large part of the japanese
army will undoubtedly be utilized in the
attempt 20 capture the fortress.
| However, the entire japanese army
/ Will not be occupied at Port Arthur.
| Seventy-flve thousand men should be
/ ample for that purpose, and this leaves
/ a large army, including the corps which
| crossed the Yalu, TO face General Kuro-
patkin in southern Manchuria. Just how
i many troops the japanese can bring to
/ bear In this locality Is not known here,
| but general opinion places the force at
| about 10000.
| This army General Kuropatbin must
/ defeat before he can hope to relieve the
! belea CURED port, and every one con-
cedes that tn task is not a light one.