The Birmingham age-herald., 1904-09-07
COTTON.

New ork, September b.-Fur the tntor- nation of many inquirlng friends l pub fish the following in reply to a letter ad dresseu to me by a gentleman in the south criticisng my recent publicly ex pressed change of opinion in regard to the cotton market. l may say that the developments Of today do not lead me to modify my expectation of substantially lower prices for cotton during the period when receipts are likely to be heaviest. and I think that those who have cotton which they must dispose of within the next two months will do wisely to ae- cept current quotations;
 New ork, September 3, 1904 Dear Sir l reply particularly to your letter re ceived today in which you suggest that my recent change of front In regard to the probable course of the cotton mar lSet will deprive me of all following and any capacity of market leadership in future.
 In reply thereto I beg to say first, that I do not aspire to so-ca1led market lead ership and think 1t q detriment rather than an advantage so far as 1t affects a speculator's money making capacity It burdens him with a moral responsibility for other peoples transactions and rem derS 1t difficult for him to Iiquidate his own. So far as my change of opinion is
 
 sons trite remark that consistency is a weakness of the narrow minded" and tell you with Josh Billings that "a wise man changes his opinions, q fool never. l reserve the right to change my opinions without, however arrogating to myself by implication even any superior wisdom II is because I some times see that other people are wiser than l am that change my opinions.
 Two classes of 4cts. To my thinking there are two classes of facts which the speculator in cotton, or in anything else. must be constantly in search of. One is, facts mathematical, which may be subdiVided into facts absolute and facts deducttye. The other class Is facts psy- chological, which, although exceedingly elusive, are quite as important at mathe- matical certainties in dealing with an ar ticle in which the speculative public is as enormous as that at present trading in cotton.
 You must bear in mind that there are probably not less than 10000 people ac- lively interested in the cotton market at all times, and in periods of great ac- tfvity this number Is largely increased. If each of these persons buys or sells only 100 bales the demand for or supply of contracts thus created represents an aggregate of 100000 bales of cotton and lS u IDIC9 lBab IS SlIlDly DVeTYnelDlnE In its preponderance. Once set in action by any leader 1t generally goes to ex- cesses that oyerwhclm him and carry him and his following to disaster, as witness the Sully debacle of last spring. It become therefore. in my opinion, very important to anticipate correctly. if pos sible, the impulses which move or set in action this irresistible force of public speculation, and 1t is equally important bot sI opinion and hysterical action shall be overcome
 Gradually declining prices: It was be- cause I saw, or thought l saw, that a great many people who had no possible use for cotton except to resell 1t at an advance, had bought it in the form of contracts that 1 sold out my cot ton on Thursday morning last, and immediately thereafter advised the public of the fact, and 1t is because I now see. or think I sec, that the government report issued on Friday, Is certain to result in re- crudescenio of the 100000 bale talk that I am unwilling to buy cotton for an ad- vance until after some comparative de- cline in the movement shall corroborate the reports of crop damage.
 This cannot possibly occur within the next month and 1 therefore think my ex
 
 the next two months is sound. You must bear in mind that the spinner is the final arhiter of cotton values If there were no spindles to use if. cotton would not be worth anything, however small the crop. IL was withdrawal of the spinner that punctured last years speculation. and in the face of a report from the gov ernment which so effectively negatives individual reports of crop shortage, the simmer is not going to buy cotton except at what he considers a reasonable price.
 Meantime, we are face to face with probably the largest September and De- tober receipts on record, and in my opin- ion the effect of this movement in com pination with a probably slack demand from manufacturers will create within the next sixty days a bearsh sentiment so strong that 1t would overwhelm either you or myself, should we attempt to oppose It. THEODORE H. PRICE.