The Meeker herald., 1904-12-24
Long R.nee weather Forecassias

sons, in view of its bearing upon agri-
cultural and other pursuits, naturally.
prompted efforts to predict the
weather. Note was made Of the COO
ditions that preceded good or baA
weather, and the temperance q
certain conditions was taken % .
basis for predicting certain weather,
To these observations were added
others, such as The flight Of birds,
movements or acsions Of animals,
even aches and pains of the human
body, and the like, resulting In the
acceptance rs true Of many shrewd
and interesting observations, but
more that were absurd. Astronomical
phenomena, such as phases Of the
moon and conjunction Of the planets,
Of all the most irrational, were and
arc still credited by some with con-
troll Of the weather, notwithstanding
persistent observations on the part Of
the leading astronomers and meteor
oloeists of the world have demon-
strated them to be devoid Of infiu-
ence.
In modern times meteorology is re-
stricted to the department Of natural
philosophy which treats of the
weather, and is naturally the most
difiicult and involved of sciences and
thus far incapable of reduction to alb
solute accuracy, though efforts to at
tain this end have accomplished
much. The United States and the
leading governments Of the old world
are devoting incalculable labor in ef-
forts to evolve from simultaneous OBJ
servations of daily weather coudi-
tions, the laws which control and In
fiuence the weather, and such adj
vance has been made in this regard
as to enable forecasts to be msde &C
curately for 48 hours in advance ex-
cept when affected by newly arising
conditions.
Every effort, In a scientific manner,
is also being made to ascertain laws
that will make 1t possible to forecast,
in general way, whether an ap-
preaching season will conform to or
depart from the weather common to
such seasons; this time, however,
has not vet arrived, but unlimited OBJ
servations thus far made have DEM
onstrated the impossibility Of ex
ceeding a period Of two or three days
In accurate forecasting for particu-
lar date.
It Is obvious that an accurate fore
cast for particular deAsSaltgaly be
made from known conditions. The
forecast itself is predetermination
Of . continuance Of or change in the
conditions known to exist at time of
forecast. It is equally obvious, there
fore, that II a change in the atmos-
pheric conditions occurs after fore
cast and during the term thereof, not
scientifically anticipated at the time
of the forecast, the forecast itself
must fail. These changes In atmos-
pheric conditions are constantly oc-
curing during the term Of a 4S-hour
forecast, and are certain to occur,
not once, but frequently. during the
term of a long range forecast, and are
wholly beyond human anticipation
or scientific knowledge.
This demonstrates conclusively
that, unless the long range forecasters
are gifted with divine foresight and
foreknowledge Of these changes, a
forecast for an indefinite period in
the future can possess no value, and
its verification is purely an accident,
or rather coincidence. Important in
terests are affected by the condition
of the weather, and influenced by
foreknowledge of its condition. 1t is
clear, therefore, that any long range
forecast, impossible in nature, must
do untold harm. A prophet has al
ways and will ever attract attention.
We are prone to look into the future.
Trading, generally for gain, upon
this element of human nature, men
spring into notice from time to time.
by pretending to forecast, at long
range, severe storms, floods, droughts
and other atmospheric phenomena,
thus influencing the credulous to
their prejudice.
In the seasons Of the year when
coast storms are Of frequent occur
renee, storms are forecast in a hazy
way and applicable to an indefinite
locality. In the winter, the time Of
snow and wind, snow and wind at
some place at some indefinite time
are forecast. At other times, terri
BILE floods or blighting droughts cal
culated to strike terror to the hearts
Of the timid, are predicted. Little
things like rains throughout a limited
area, though q foreknowledge there