New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1904-01-01
EUROPEAN COMBINATIONS

The last news OF 1903 and the first news OF
1904 show little ground for the theory that Ger
many is backing Russia in the latter's ag-
gressions in China and Corea and In her crni-
nous controversy with Japan. Germanys in
terest now lies in peace, not war, and not
only in peace for herself but also for Rus
STA, who is her next neighbor and her most
profitable trade customer 1t is true that in
1895 Germany Joined Russia and France in de-
priving Japan of the legitimate fruits OF vic
tory. But it is doubtful if Germany now re-
members with any degree Of satisfaction the
part she then played in checking the progress
of civilization and in closing again the opening
doors of commerce. Moreover, there was at
that time no danger Of war, such as now seems
imminent; and since then Germany has de-
clared in the most positive and authoritative
manner that she has no interest whatever in
the regions north Of Corea Bay and the Gulf of
Pe-Chi-L. 1t is scarcely conceivable, then. that
Germany would spend a man or mark to help
Russia grab Corea or confirm her grip upon
Manchuria.
We should not, however, be surprised to see
such changes in European international COM
binations as would make Germany and Russia
close friends, and estrange France from the
latter in favor of an Anglo-Franco-Italian APP
proachment. The influences which make tow
ard such an end are practical and potent Con-
spicuous among them is the commercial rela-
tionship between Germany and Russia. Geo
graphically they next neighbors, so that
the conduct OF trade is most easy. In products
they complement each other. Germany pro-
duces the manufactures which Russia needs and
Russia produces the food supplies and other
raw materials which Germany requires. The
result is that each is the others best customer.
TrC
a year while between France and Russia it is
only S5OOO0OOO and between Great Britain
and Russia $120.OOO,00O. Such German FREEDOM
nance in Russian markets is, moreover, likely
TO be materially increased under the new Ger
man tariff and the new commercial treaty
which is now being negotiated with Russia.
The moral is obvious. Countries so closely re
lated and so mutually interdependent are par
tculary likely to become and to remain close
political friends
AS for France, there are many indications
that she has recovered from the feverish gla-
mour OF the Russian alliance, that she has come
to realize that there was and is nothing in it
of practical value to her. and that she is tired
of being Russia's diplomatic catspaW. Indeed.
it is pretty confidently predicted that she Will
not back Russia in the latter's quarrel with
Japan not even If China joins Japan. At the
Great Britain and Italy a more cordial feel
ing than had been known for full generation,
practically all causes of irritation have been re-
moved and il has become evident that a con-
fdent understanding and close Impeachment
among those three powers would be for the
good Of each and all The fact is, foreign poll
cies are now largely dictated by trade inter
ests Commercial treaties have replaced dynas-
tic alliances. Now, while, as we have said.
Germany and Russia are each the others best
customer, practically the same may be said of
Great Britain and France. Great Britain pur-
chases SlO0OOO,000 a year more from France
than she does from Germany from any other
country except America, and she sells more 10
France than TO any other country excepting
only Germany and America-indeed, ker sales
to France, in proportion TO the latters popula-
ton, are greater than TO either of these others
named
1t Is not. of course, to be apprehended that
any such realignment of powers would have
warlike object Great Britain and France have
made an arbitration treaty, but they will scarce
" make an offensive and defensive alliance.
The two great alliances which now exist have
undoubtedly conserved the peace of Europe.
But they have outgrown their apparent useful
ness and seem to be moribund without any
menace to peace in their impending dissolution.
1t is indeed, conceivable that, despite the main
tenance of enormous ornaments, the militant
age, so strongly developed generation ago, is
now past, at least for a considerable time, so
far as Europe itself is concerned. The powers
may prey upon such lands China and Siam
and the few remaining native States of Africa,
and Russia may even provoke Japan to reprisals
against her aggressions. Bur more and more
the outlook is for peace in Europe, and for in
ternational relations based not upon fear or
menace, but rather upon the peaceful interests
of commerce and social intercourse.