The Minneapolis journal. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn.) 1888-1939, 1904-01-21
Followed by a Panicky Market
Price Changes Quick and
Erratic.
Gradual Subsistence of the Scare
and a Firm and Steady
Close.
Armour the Whole Thing-Analy-
sis of an Abnormal
Situation.


Jan. 21.-Wheat got a setback sharp and
severe this morning, and prices fell Off
with such rapidity that in some cases
stop-loss orders were reached. This was
especially true of Chicago July, which
option sold from S4Ac down to S1Ac SO
quickly that traders on the local floor
thought at first the figures posted We're
incorrect, as the loss in that option was
so much heavier than in the others. Snow
over the southwest, putting an end to the
winter wheat drought scare did the bust
ness and brought the weakness, which Was
naturally felt most severely In July. 1t
was evident at the start that a break was
impending, for Liverpool was not up at
ALL in tact, it was unchanged to I'D
lower. This has been the story right
along American markets have advanced
almost uninterruptedly for a long time.
Liverpool, despite the strength here and
the war scare, failed to follow. The re-
suit is that the markets are now utterly
out of line so far export business Is
concerned OF course, no one cares about
export business at this time. What the
trade has been concerned with is the
supply situation at home which Is strong
There is no doubt that all that has been
said as to the bulishness of the domestic
situation will be borne out in final show
ings. At the same time ours is an eX-
porting country, and we have wheat to
sell. Theoretically the price of wheat in
Chicago ought to figure about lac under
the price in Liverpool to put the markets
on an easy working basis. Business is
often done when the difference is much
narrower, but at present there is practi-
cally no difference prices in Chicago and
in Liverpool being almost the same. This
is an abnormal condition, and one that
cannot be maintained indefinitely. This
is not to assert that American prices are
necessarily too high. That is a matter
Of opinion, and there are many who be-
lieve dollar wheat will be justified by sup
ply conditions here in May next. But the
advance on our side has been very great
and prices are close to the high point of
92hc reached in 1900, when drought in
the northwest did such serious damage.
TO put us upon legitimate basis Amer
lean and foreign markets have got to
work closer together. Some believe that
Liverpool will one day wake up to the
situation and come up with a bound.
But Liverpool is not wholly dependent
upon America for supplies, present or
prospective. Even the war scare has
failed to cause a panic over there. Ninety
cents here is not a bad figure for wheat
That is the situation.
All this has nothing whatever to do with
the probable course Of prices for the i'm
mediate future. Dollar wheat may come
soon, and indeed there is strong opinion
that it will come before The present wave
of bull enthusiasm subsidies. The point
Is. that it Is now time to cease talking
about short supplies and big milling re-
quirements, flour les, light receipts and
the numerous other things of like nature.
These things were dwelt upon in this COL
,lmn day after day and week after week
for long time. Seventy-five cents Oh
whereabouts was the figure for wheat
when such argument began. Fifteen cents
has gone on to prices. The trader who
comes into the speculative market at this
tsrr1n -hr RI I'm hat oil t. >f
thing has had effect, and has been dis
counted, in good part at least, by the adj
vance. If man enters the market now
he should understand that he comes in
at a time when Armour is the overshad-
owing influence. Armour has control. He
may carry his line along into May and
put prices over a dollar; or he may sell
out at any time. Supply and demand
conditions relative to prices have had
their day of leading influence. From now
on the successful trader will be he who
can guess right as to what Armour is
going to do.
The storm crippled the wire service and
there was not much gossip from outside
markets.
Minneapolis stocks have increased $780,
900 bushels so far this week.
Minneapolis received 255 cars against
81, Duluth 60 against 80 and Chicago 23
against 81. Kansas City had 179 900 bush
els against $4,000, and st. Louis So, 900
against $4,000.
Owing to the storm many Of the regular
statistical items were missing.
The market was strong near the close
and the early loss was recovered in good
part. Minneapolis May closed at 90A a
90asc; July, SSB @89c and September 7Sc.
The cash demand for wheat was good,
May price to 1ac over was the figure for
No. / northern and 21ac to SC under the
basis for No 2 northern. No. wheat
.n1H T. in ha ,oir hotv On o,,1
Anything free from smut and otherwise
good was sold readily, but the smutty and
bin burnt wheat was hard to move at
satisfactory prices.
e. May Oats.
A lively trade was on in May oats,
about 100000 blu changing hands up to
noon. The close was 3S%c. Local ele-
vator men were sellers and there was a
trace of speculative interest. the first seen
since trading in oat futures begun here