The Saint Paul globe., 1904-08-26

of / per cent of the government report
as of five days later and that both as to
the average of the entire belt and the con-
dft1on by states my correspondents and
the government were closely in accord.
From the foregoing figures it will be
admitted that all prospect of a bumper
cotton crop in the South for the coming
year must be abandoned and that for the
fifth successive season the world is con-
fronted with an insufficiency in its cotton
supply.
Various reasons are assigned for the
deterioration which has so invariably set
in during the final months of the plants
developmnt for the past five years. I'm
queStionably the first in Importance is the
boil weevil, which now infests two-thirds
OF the cotton acreage in Texas. The i'm
pairment of the seed. the exhaustion of the
land and the insufficiency of labor are 9TH
er theories upon which five successive
crop. failures may be explained. 1t is
possible that the seed impairment theory
has basis of truth. 1t is probable that
the exhaustion of the land has not been
counterbalanced by the use of fertilizers,
but the operation of the influences is SuS-
ceptible to statistical proof.
There seems to be no question as to
the insufficiency of labor, and / submit
the following facts as sufficient ex-
planatlon of the growing disparity be-
tween the acreage and cotton production
of the Southern states
These figures are based on the ceusus
return of 1900 the annual increase in
,
applied to the figures of 1900 in order to
approximate the facts of 1900.
Population and Cotton Acreage, South
Inc. IA
Inc years
1sssl 255sso 1sSS si5 nssiS g.
Indi- Inc IA
Inc Gated years
1890. 1900. Pct. 1904. Pct.
1875, 355 19,766.056 24.O "a, 169. 2O6 80 %
Rural Population presumably AgricuI-
curaD
Inc 10 Indi- Inc. IA
years Gated years
1890. 1900. Pct. 1904. Pct.
49, 102, 24S 1886, 731 1871 16,451.7 753 25.6
Urban Population in Towns of 1000 or
Over presumably NonagricuIturaD
Inc 10 Indi- Inc IA
years Gated years
1890. 1900. Pct. 1904. Pct.
2,S73, ,1O7 4,159,325 44.S 4,737, ,453 ga 8
Total Negro Population (Urban and Rural,
Distribution Not ObtainabIe)
Inc 10 Indi- Inc IA
years Gated years
614O,2 201 7,242,301 1870 7,633,3S5 "a 8
These figures show that in the past
fourteen years the cotton acreage of the
South has increased 63 per cent, while
increased only 25.6 per cent. 1t is not
practicable to determine what proportion
of the rural population of the cotton
states is engaged in cotton culture. In
the ten years ending 1900 the number Of
manufacturing establishments in the cot
ton states had increased from &c. 1874 in
1890 to 7O27S in 1900, or sS.4 per cent,
from $402, ,S53,S10 to 1898, 1876, 163, or 97.1
per cent.
AS the increase in the manufacturing
.1..4.r
greater than that of the cotton acreage, it
is probable that the disproportion between
the rural population available for the cul-
ture of cotton and the increase in acreage
is even greater than the above figures in
dicate; but assuming that one in five of
the population is engaged in cotton cul-
ture, which is a very liberal estimate.
it would appear that in 1890 19, 1853. 900
acres of cotton were cultivated by $500,
900 people, or an average of 712 acres per
person. while in 1904 81 ,731, 900 acres must
be cultivated by 3,29S,O00 people, or an
average of nearly ten acres per person.
From this statement only one conclu-
sion can be drawn. namely: Cultivation Is
less efficient and the yield per acre there
the relationship between the increase in
the negro population and the cotton acre
age this view of the case is even more
impressive. The economic consideration
that led to the war of the confederacy was
the idea that the control of the negro was
essential to the cotton supremacy of the
South. 1t is not improbable that this
theory is about to find its economic proof.
The negro alone can cultivate cotton
effectively under the hot Southern sun.
In the past fourteen years the cotton crop
of the South has been increased by 12,
$50, 900 acres, or 63 per cent, and the
negro population in the same period has
increased only 1,493.1S4. or 24.3 per
cent It is generally admitted that the
tendency In the South on the part Of
the more intelligent negroes is toward
Northern migration or residence in cities
and employment i'll the factories, mines.
lumber camps and railroads. The resid
uum of negro labor available for the cul-
tiyation of cotton is therefore not only
out of proportion as compared with the
acreage. but comprises the least thrifty,
ambitious and progressive element. The
Southern plantations. which are for the
most part operated under the tenant SyS-
tem have under this system been less
carefully cultivated and become less pro-
ductive. Cotton land in the South for
this reason is worth less today than it
was fifty years ago. and its value is but
the exponent of its productive capacity
under existing conditions of labor. 1t is
plain that until these conditions change
an increase in acreage Is unlikely to re-
suit in substantial increase in produc-
ton and as no change in these condi
tions seems probable within the next few
years | am convinced the cotton trade
must adjust itself To the prospect of a
cumulatively acute stringeney in the sup
ply at least during This deeade,