The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1904-09-07
COT T ON.
Especial to News and Observer

4 Il.
! New York Sept 6.-For the infor-
nation of many inquiring friends
publish the following in reply to a
| letter addressed to me by a gentleman
| in the South criticising my recent pub
| lie expressed change of opinion in re-
gard to the cotton market.
| may say that the developments of
| today do not lead me to modify my
expectations of substantially lower
prices for cotton during the period
when receipts are likely to be heav-
lest and l think that those who have
cotton which they must dispose of
within the next two months will do
wisely to accept current quotations:
New York, Sept. 3. 1904 reply
particularly to your letter received
today, in which you suggest that my
recent change of front in regard to
the probable course of the cotton
market will deprive me of all follow
ing and any capacity of market lead
ership in future. In reply thereto, l
beg to say first, that | do not aspire to
o-called market leadership, and think
it a detriment rather than an adVant-
age so far as it affects a spectators
money making capacity. 1t burdens
him with a modern responsibility for
other peoples transactions and renders
it difficult for him to liquidate his own.
cerned, l can only quote you Emer
sons trite remark that "cOnsiStence is
a weakness of the narrow minded"
and tell you with Joseph Billings, that
"a wise man changes his opinions;
fool never" l reserve the right to
change my opinions without, however,
arrogating to myself, by implication
even, any superiOr~Wisdom. 1t is be-
cause l sometimes. see that other peO-
10 he, abr,
my opinions.
Two Classes Of Facts.
To my thinking, there are two
classes of facts which the Spectator
in cotton, or in anything, also must
be constantly in search of: One is
facts mathematical, which may be
sub divided into facts absolute and
facts deductive. The other class is
facts psychological, which although eX-
ceedingly elusive, are quite as import
ant as mathmetical certainties in deal
ing with an article in which the spec
ulative public is as enormous as that
at present trading in cotton. You
must bear in mind that there are
probably not less than ten thousand
people actively interested in the cot
ton market at all times and in periods
of great activity this number is large
Iy increased If each of these persons
the demand for or supply of contracts
thus created represents an aggregate
of 100000 bales of cotton and is a
force that is simply overwhelming its
prepOnderance. Once set in action by
any leader, it generally goes to excess
es that overwhelm him and carry him
and his following to disaster, as wit
messed the Sully debacle of last spring.
1t become, therefore, in my opinion,
70 inif tn lNy
if possible, the impulse which move
or set in action this citesstable force
of public speculation, and it is equally
important that any tendency toward
exaggerated opinion and historical ac-
tons shall be overcome. Gradually
declining prices. 1t was because l
saw, or / thought | saw, that a great
many people who had no possible use
for cotton. except to resell it at an ad-
vance, had bought it in the form of
contracts and | sold out my cotton on
Thursday morning last and imme-
diately thereafter advised the public
of the fact and it is because | now
see, or think / see. that the govern
ment report issued on Friday, is GER
tain to result in a recrudescence of
the 100000 bale talk that / am I'M
willing to buy cotton for an advance
until after some comparative decline
the reports of crop damage. This can
not possibly occur within the next two
months, and / therefore think my eX
pectation of gradually declining prices
for the next two months is sound. You
must bear in mind that the spinner
is the final arbiter of cotton values.
If there were no spindles to use it,
cotton would not be worth anything,
however small the crop. 1t was the
withdrawal of the spinner that pune
tured last years speculation, and in
the face of a report from the govern
ment which so effectively negatives in
dividual reports of crop shortage, the
spinner is not going to buy cotton ex-
cept at what he considers a reasonable
price.
Meantime, we are face to face with
probably the largest September and
October receipts on record, and, in
my opinion, the effect of this move
ment, in combination with a probably
slack demand for manufacturers, will
create in the next sixty days a bear
ish sentiment so strong that it would
overwhelm either you or myself should
we attempt to oppose it.
(Signed) THEO. ii. PRICE.