Manchester Democrat. [volume] (Manchester, Iowa) 1875-1930, 1904-12-21
Concerning Weather Forecasts.

Concerning Weather Forecasts.
Simultaneous observations are
collected by telegraph twice daily,
and oftener when needed; and
by this means the forecast officials
are enabled to note the actual
weather conditions in all parts Of
the continent. On prepared maps,
lines are drawn showing areas Of
low and high pressure, noting DIFF
ferences of temperature and direc-
ton of wind at the various stations.
Storm centers are thus located and
the graphic pictures show the area
OF disturbance, energy and direction
Of movement. Upon this basis of
actual conditions, thus graphically
presented to the eye of the official in
charge, the forecast is made as to
the weather changes that are likely
to occur in the different parts of the
country within the coming twenty
four, thirty-six or forty-eight hours.
In the method of forecasting there
is nothing even remotely akin to
occult science or the practice of
astrology. No storm forecast is
issued until storm actually ap-
pears, or is in the initial stage of
development. When the weather
map reveals the outlines of storm
center far west or northwest tic
problem to be solved by the fore.
caster relates to it's probable future
course, its velocity Of translation,
its increase or decrease in extent
aud force, and the disturbance of
element likely to be caused during
its progress across the continent.
This is something of complex
problem, requiring in its solution
very thorough study and the appli-
cation of well established principles
OF meteorological science. Due
consideration must be given to the
result of experience and observation
of weather processes in previous
storms, but that does not insure per-
feet accuracy of the forecast. There
are different types of storms, and
those belonging to a certain type
Of form and combination of lows and
highs on the map frequently display
very eccentric behavior in their
trans-conti entail movem n t.
Natures great law of diversity,
holds true in the weather to a re-
markable degree. No exact dupi-
cate of any general storm has been
issued. And this extreme variable
ity Of movement, under quite simi-
lar conditions at the outset, has pre-
vented an overproduction of perfect
ly successful weather forecasters.
1t is indeed marvellous that in this
country, with its widely variant
storm-types, they have achieved
from so to 80 per cent of accuracy
in their work.
Well now, having made SO good a
record at short range, why not ex-
tend the period to full week o,
month? This is a question often
propounded. The answer of ex-
perience is that those who venture
further usually fare worse. Just
beyond what is shown on the daily
weather chart is an illimitable realm
of uncertainty, wherein those who
enter must walk by faith not by
sight. Forecasters take large risks
if they attempt to hit storm centers
off-hand, or by random shots; to hit
even at short range they must take
very deliberate aim with the weathe,
map as rest.
In ancient times astrologers
worked a profitable graf" to satisfy
the public demand for knowledge O
the future, representing that al
human events, and even weather
changes, were due to the influence
of the moon and planetary bodies
and that they alone knew how t,
read the celestial cipher. Isaiah
the great Hebrew prophet, referred
to that guild in rather umcompli
mentary terms, as "Stargazers, as
strologers and monthly prognostica
tors" Since the middle ages thi
practice has fallen into disrepute
but we have some modern instan
ces" Indicating survival of tn
superstitious beliefs which forme
the basis of old time astrology. Gu
modern stargazers and month";,
prognosticators refer in mysteriou
phrase to the NOON, Mercury, Venus
Saturn and even the Hypothetical
Vulcan, as the powers Of the al
which bring storms and all weathe
changes and earthquakes. Thes
t men peddle their long-range fore
: casts in almanacs and other publ
cations, profiting by practice o
human credulity and ignorance {
natural laws. Their alleged pre-
dictions are usually very indeGnit
as to the exact date Of arrival {
storms, and their line of trav'