The San Francisco call., 1904-03-11
THE COFFEE MARKET.
The Recent Sla'rb and Future
Prospects.


The circular OF Henry Norolinger Co.,
under date of New York March 1, says;
shortly after issued our last report
a thorough change IN the speculative senu-
rnent on our local market took place. Prices
crumbed away with a rspidity which was as
tonshing. Enormous blocks were thrown over
board indiscriminstely and the advance which
took three months In building up was wiped
we were asked for the reason which led
to this sudden collapse in price. One reason
is thought TO have been the revival OF com
petition between two most important interests
IN this country. which were oeiore thousn 70
have been working in harmony Another fee-
son ascIfbed is that one OF our large rosstefS
who had failed TO secure all the conee needed
for his requirements recognized the over.
bought speculative position on our market IN
combination with the dangerous position specu-
lstors brought upon themselves IN enother COLT
ruodits- and grasped this oportunity 70 break
the market for the purpose OF shaking out
these speculative holdings and Of obtaining
prices Whichever Of these two versions
may he correct is fnlmaterial now. The iacts
that the iustigstors OF the decline hass
been ernfneutly successful in their movement
srd this success was solely due to the can
gerous speculative position in which the mar
Ia calmly looking over the field we ind
that the present and prospective posluon OF
actual cofes has not changed in the least
S-or9 what il was month ago; facts are,
however. for the time being. entirely ignored
LET us 60 back TO the time the advance IN
Price MAS FtarfeQs lnle was LdSl <1AbAct va
the proposition that the 1904 Rio and Santos
crop would amount 10 only between 1zOoOVOU
and l3.ooo0 600 bags Letter on tne price prlce "a,
creased step by step with each reduction OF
the probable outtUrn OF the crop. until a
reasonable assurance was had that X would De
only about 10.500 600 bags. Then the nlgn-
est prfce was reached. The actual conditions
with regard TO the extent OF the crop are not
one iots different from what they we're
month ago Nevertheless speculation may
force the market etill lower. especially at this
time when sentiment has been so thoroughly
shaken. but supply and demand are bound 10
regulate values eventually and for this reason
We do not hesitate 10 recommend laying IN
stocks and not missing the present oppor-
tunirv Of doing al safe basis OF price.
THE STATISTICAL SITUATION.
The receipts at Rio and Santos up till now
are about 100000 bags smaller than for the
same time last year and the indications are
that the falling of in the receipts for the
remainder Of the crop year viii be about so
rier cent as compared with last year On the
o-fe- hand recejnts Of other kinds exclusive
or Rio and Ssntos) have been far about
200 900 bags larger than last year. but they
should show a falling Of from now on be
cause the Central American crops. as wei as
the Java crops. are very much smaller than
Jas wear
States about 1000 bags larger than last
year which is p fair offset TO the increase In
tho receipts II Milds Bahias and Nictorias.
we estimate the receipts Of Milds in Eu-
rope and the United States during the next
four months st about > 600. 600 bags. the re-
ceipts 81 Rio and Santos about 1900. 600 bags.
during these four months can safely be cal
custed at 50OO 600 bags therefore can
roasonahly expect 10 see reduction IN the
visible supply of l.500 o00 bags from present
figures by the end ~ the crop year. This is
certainly feature which merits attention,
the more 50 as il means drawing on stocks
IN consuming markets in no small measure
during the coming months.
We find strong support to our argu-
mcnt with reference TO the actual position in
the fact tha- the Brazil markets bold up very
firm in spite n the serious break in consunl-
ine markets II the actual postion-that is.
the extent q the present and next crop-were
inimical 10 higher market Values should
think that the markets in the producing coun-
tries would he the first 70 show weakness, or
would st any rate quickly respond 70 the de-
cline established. Hut IL Is still stranger
feature that 1T a price OF &c q 10 higher
han our market which has been the prevail
ing disparity in Brazil during the last two
three weeks. purchases are being made for
United States account We ask ourselves nat
urally-Nho is buying in the producing mar
kets At such a disparity of values? It is
certainly nor the dealer for his requirements.
IL must be the large rossters who cannot OBJ
fafn the grade of goods they need on our
market and while they are nOninally quot
ing low price FOR same are actually buying
~ the same time al a 50 much higher price
Legitimate trading has been Influenced
through the decline I'm the speculative quarter
The dealer inland IS nonplused. more espe-
cialiy 50 because he cannot obtain The actual
stuff al anything like the decline which has
taken place in opiions. The first revival Of
legitimate demand wiz show that desirable
qualities are scarcer than ever and il
win also be found that sellers are few and far
.getWeel.
.'Cur European friends maintain that the
present basic ~ price IS below the value vhicn
Inc position q the article warrants. This 81
reflected in tho European markets which are
iuling bout .c n and more o.er our
rarity and shows the confidence which ure-
,aiis there in spite of the depressed state OF
affairs mere. We must say that share
-lis confidence fully.
Mild cofees have held their own although
arriNais were free and stocks are large Coun-
tries q production have shipped out all their
I'D accommodations: the goods corning forward
uow are Of the new crop. which are not nearly
rs desirable as those previously received here. -