Gilpin observer., 1904-01-07

a though, as the months went by, it
became increasingly improbable that
the Colombian congress would ratify
the treaty or take steps which would
be equivalent thereto. yet all chance
for such action on their part did not
vanish until the congress closed at the
end of October, and within three days
thereafter the revolution In Panama
had broken out. Panama became an
independent state, and the control of
the territory necessary for building the
canal then became obtainable. The
condition under which alone we could
have gone to Nicaragua thereby be-
came impossible Of fulfiillment. II tie
pending treaty with Panama should
not be ratified by the senate this
would not alter the fact that we could
not go to Nicaragua. The congress
has decided the route, and there Is no
alternative under existing legislation
When in August it began to appear
probable that the Colombian le2isla-
ture would not ratify the treaty ii be-
came incumbent upon nee to consider
well what the situation was and TO be
ready to advise the congress as to
action open to us. There were several
possibilities. One was that Colombia
would at the last moment see the un-
wisdom of her position. That there
might be nothing omitted, Secretary
Hay, through the minister at Bogota,
repeatedly warned Colombia that
grave consequences might follow from
her rejection of the treaty. Although
it was II constantly diminishing chance,
yet the possibility of ratification did
not wholly pass away until the close
of the session of the Colombian con-
gress.
Most Likely Situation.
A second alternative was that by
the close of the session or the last
day of October, without the ratification
of the treaty by Colombia and without
any steps taken by Panama, the Amer
lean congress on assembling early in
November would be confronted with
situation in which there had been
failure to come to terms as to build
ing the canal along the Panama route,
and yet there had not been Il lapse of
a reasonable time-using the word rea-
sonable in any proper sense-such as
would justify the administration going
to the Nicaragua route. This situa-
ton seemed On the whole the most like
~. and as Il matter of fact / had made
the original draft of my message to the
congress with view TO its existence.
1t was the opinion of eminent inter
national jurists that in view OF the
facr that the great design of our guar
antec under the treaty of 1916 was to
dedicate the isthmus to the purposes
of interoceanic transit. and above all TO
secure the construction of an inter-
oceanic canal. Colombia could not un-
der existing conditions refuse TO enter
into proper arrangement with the
United States to that end. without vio-
lating the spirit and substantially re-
pudiating the obligations of treaty
the full benefits of which she had en-
joyed for over fifty years. Ny inten-
tion was to consult the congress as TO
whether under such circumstances it
would not be proper to announce that
the canal was to be dug forthwith: that
we would give the terms that we had
offered and no others; and that il such
terms Were not agreed to we would
enter into an arrangement with Pana-
ma direct. or take what other steps
were needful in order to begin the en-
terprise.
\ third possibility was that the 7co-
pie OF the isthmus. who had formerly
constituted an independent state. and
who until recently We're united to Col
ombia only ny q Loose tie of federal re-
lationship. might take the protection of
their own vital interests into their own
hands. reassert their former rights. de-
clare their independence upon just
grounds. and establish Il government
competent and willing TO do its share
in this great work for civilization.
This third possibility is what actually
occurred Everyone knew that is was
n possibility. but II was not until to-
wards the end of October that il ap-
peared to he an imminent probability
Although the administration. OF course.
had special means OF knowledge. no
such means were necessary in order to
appreciate the possibility. and toward
the end the likelihood of such Il rev.
olutlonary outbreak and of its success.
1t was u matter OF common notoriety.
0Iere the president submitted quo
tations from newspapers showing the
state of affairs on the isthmus)
Revolution Reported brewing.
On Oct. IL Commander Hubbard
OF the navy. notified the navy depart
ment that. though things We're quiet on
the isthmus. revolution had broken
out In the state of Cauca. On Oct.
16. at the request of Lieutenant Gen
eral Young. l saw Captain c. II. Hum
phrey and Lieutenant Grayson Mallct-
Provost Murphy. who had just re-
turned from II four months tour
through the northern portions of Ven
ezuela and Colombia. They stopped in
Panama on their return In the latter
mart nf Spptanhpr Al tba tiuna thcy