The San Francisco call., 1904-12-09
THE COFFEE OUTLOOK

crop Prospects and Probable Require
ments.
The New York circular OF Henry Nordlinger
. & CO. says:
1T Is most astonishing that some Brazilian
exporters should repeat the folly OF previous
years IN cabling crop estimates when the hoN-
ering Of the trees IS only Just completed 1t is
about the same proposition as estimating an
apple crop Immediately after the blossoming
period. How valueiess estimates al the pres
. lion bass Tor the. I9dt-O6 crop. In looking
over our files md that whenever estimates
. ot the following years crop OF coffee We're
given early this. they Invariably
millions of bags out o. the way, being either
Too high OF TOO low by that much
II e utterly impossible for Brazilisns 10
elEe an approximately reliable estimate OF their
-.lop 81 ms une- EFen as late as March or
april, when the picking season begins. the
a-aziiians lsnd We include the most honor
s.uie anc cQnserNativ nouses) haze IN some
years erred 70 the extent Of millions OF bags
in their estimates. We repeat that no atten-
zion should be paid 10 estimates al this time
whether they are large or small: il is safer
20 take the actions OF the market in the pro
cucing country, OF some other guiding feature.
a basis from which 10 draw conclusions
Lhe planters. N anybody. Nlght 70 know what
the prospects are with regard 10 their growing
crop. and II the Rio crop really promises 70
Pc an extraordinary large one, as one Of the
cables received here last month has IL, il
I'm Rio and Minas would hurry forward every
hag of coffee they have left their planta-
receipts IN RIO the contrary. however were
eNcePrionally small last month and for that
InatleT nave 70 been during the entire period
or ordinary heavy movements TO ports. Il is
furthermore 10 be remarked upon that the
price in RIO has not been Influenced in the
least by the fluctuations in the speculative
markets OF Europe and the United States but
has remained continuously hrm- These fea-
-1-Les -1Ls 20 oor nllno Indicate that while the
prospects are Tor 4 larger 19o5-06 Rio crop
than the exceptionally small one Of the cur
rent fiscal year, il viii not be a record crop
by any means On the other hand. the trees
ln the state OF Sac Paulo are in such de
+--LaL-e cenolLon mat u IS more than nkely
that the Santos crop viii be much less next
year than this-how much less. cannot be de-
rermined until some time next spring
THE STATISTICAL POSITION. e
We stlll have seven months OF the current
crop year ahead OF Us. and II the consump-
non during that time equals that of the cor
1esqonding period Of the previous three years
F.e ought 70 start next season with about A.
100000 bags less coffee than We have now, or
about 2oOopoO bags less than was existing on
r1e first of July this year. This reduction in
rae visible supply viii be due solely TO the re-
f-Ced crops OF Brazil.
l-oet supply and the following years crop Is
l1- larger than the present one. further re
-ect7n ~ the visible Supply during lso5-g6
l. about the same magnitude can reasonably
. be calculated on. This would then bring the
Tl.E 1905 20 something below 5000 .OO0 bags,
as against 14.25o coo bags existing now
"Olr -riends in Brazil stil claim that the
Ie.f-05 Rio and Santos crop Will prove not 10
eEeL s.oD0.Ol0 bags. Gables received here
.a-.t rom santos are 70 the eject Lndt most
ut me large plantations have virtually snlpped
rl- their entire crop. and that only very
small percentage Is left the other planta-
r1-s il that state II this Is correct, then
-a- estimates Of our friends would not be ex-
oeeled. We believe. however. that in accord
l-ce with the receipts 50 far in. and having
lls regard for the causes which brought out
mis- coffee from the Santos plantations IN
such -srge measure az 50 early time, tne
.rD VIII turn out 70 be nearer 100000 bags
and this Is the basis on which We have as
above calculated the expected reduction IN the
visible supply.
.-zzling some operators here. is the fact, that
europe which during the nrst nve months ot
-re crop year usually purchased IN Brazil
u 3.50O.ulO 70 4suup-vuo bags ol collssT nsts
This YEAR not taken more than 2.25u,OO0 bags
curing the same time Is IL likely that ku-
..ue eNQected 70 get her supplies after the
United States had slowed I'D in its pur-
rrases2 II 20. she appears 70 have mlscai-
.lfated because this country although II has
.ocumulsted the previously unheard-Ol STOCK
.l 800 NQn haEE). does not seem % tire OF the
.nilcy ~ continuing purchases around the pres
.rr level OF price Sooner or later Europe vii
.e forced 20 replenistf her depleted stocks anq
-f seems us when this takes place II VIII
haVe % be al a much higher range oi values;
She has only the stocks in Rio and santos ot
about . 4C0 600 bags tof which FAIR part is
s.ready owned by firms 10 this country, ano
-he probable receipts Of 2,50OOoo bags during
me next seven months 20 fall back upon Ihls
me utmost of which the United States VIII
surely take one-half. besides which about l.
NOn. COO 70 1.5C0. 600 bags are usually held at
lrlzillan shipping ports a. the enc OF the crop
aaes available for Europe
The consumption Of Brazil coffee in Europe
turing the next seven months viii be at least
tuHo. COO baEs. In this connection II Is inn
e1fee already 500 600 bags less than
they were az this time last year