The Savannah morning news. (Savannah, Ga.) 1900-current, 1904-05-08
FORECASTS MADE
AT LONG RANGE
BUT PURE CHARLATANRY
SAYS MIR. III. b. BOYER, LOCAL
WEATHER FORECASTER.

Things on Which "Quack Fore
cnsts, Are Mnde-Weather Bureau
Experts Work on Purely Scientific
Grounds--S2 Per Cent. of Predic-
tons Arc Verihed-NOw Attacking
Higher Atmosphere With Idea of
Being Able to Make LOng-Range
Forecasts.
I,ong-range weather forecasting is
still far from a science and the best
efforts of the experts in the govern
ment service have been unable to ac-
curately forecast weather more than
one day in advance. In speaking of
,he claims OF what he termed "quack
weather forecasters," Mr.. H. B. Boyer,
the local forecaster, said yesterday
among other things:
TT is the opinion Of the leading
meteorologists of the world that pub
lie interests are injured by the publ
cation of so-called long-range weather
forecasts, especially such predictions
as relate to severe storms, foods,
droughts and other atmospheric phe-
nomena of a dangerous character
Forecasts of this description can prop
erly be classed with advertisements of
ouack medicines-they are both harm
full in the extreme.
These forecasts are based upon a
variety of things. Some use birds and
animals as a basis, judging of the
coming weather by the actions of the
animals. Others utilize dead sub
stances of the animal or vegetable
kingdom, such as hairs, f1bres, strings
of musical instruments, and roots
Their predictions are based on the
contraction or expansion of these sub
stances.
still others base predictions on
stones sweating or remaining dry, and
many base their forecasts on the ach-
ing Of their corns, joints, or the
twitching of their nerves. Perhaps the
most widespread is the belief that
there is a connection between the heav-
emily bodies and atmospheric disturb
ances. The moon figures prominently
in these forecasts, and sun spots also
come in for their share Of presagers
of direful events.
The Government Methods.
Inc only IlelIlOuS WHICH nave any
real basis and which can be reason
ably accurate" continued Mr.. Boyer,
are those employed by the United
States Weather Bureau officials, and
in fact the methods employed by the
meteorological experts of all the larg-
er governments. All others are moth
ing but charlatanry and quackery,
nothing else.
The Weather Bureau officials are
n fra alyIx
knowledge our limitations. Neverthe-
less, we have been reasonably accurate.
The average predictions of fair or rain
that are verified is so per cent. or one
miss out of every five forecasts. These
are in forecasts of not more than one
day in advance.
With the best methods Of science
our best men have been able to make
this percentage in the short forecasts.
Forecasts for more than one day in
advance, however, have such low
probability, that more failure than re-
suits are to be expected, Nevertheless,
in periods of six or seven years, no
great meteorological events have been
missed, such as storms, cold waves,
etc. on which the material welfare of
the country so much depends.
Improving the Service.
The present forecasts are based on
iAAobl iSdQlIlSS OI SURFACE COn-
ditions. 1t is recognized that no great
further advance can be made under
these conditions, and the experts are
now attacking the higher atmosphere
by means of kites balloons, etc.
Such progress has already been
made that maps are now prepared for
conditions existing in the atmosphere
at a hight of 8, 500 to 10000 feet above
the earth. To further the work one
OF the finest observatories in the world
as now being constructed at Mount
Fair Weather, about forty miles from
Washington, where physical research
and experimental work can be carried
on with every facility.
1.-THE work is under the supervision
of one of the most noted meteorologists
IN the country, Prof. Bigelow. In time
We shall no doubt be able to make
long-distance forecasts but we cannot
do 50 at present with any great de-
gree of accuracy.
One of the Prophets.
THE people of Savannah will remem-
her famous weather prophet who
resides not a thousand miles from
New Jersey who visited this city a
few years ago. In a published inter
view he predicted a destructive storm
for this locality, but the storm never
materialized.
The prophet was roundly scored,
especially by those who had put faith
in his words and prepared for a storm.
In reply he wrote a letter to the
Morning News, in which he calmly
avowed that his prediction had been
fulfilled, as a storm had visited the
Pacific coast and the Lake Region"
In conclusion Mr. Boyer spoke hope
fully of the future that is before the
weather Bureau as science develops.
The wonderful progress that has been
made since its inauguration bespeaks
almost no limit to it's possibilities.
IN THE SUpERVoR cOuRT