The San Francisco call., 1904-02-05
CONDITION OF TRADE.
The Situation From a Barker S
Point of Vfezu.

The New York circular Of Henry Clews ssys:
Clique operations infused a fair degree Of
activity on the Stock Exchange or strong
and substantial leadership there are few signs;
yet Il is quite apparent that the heavy buy
who took stocks during the liquidation OF
1909 have been holding FOR better figures, and
thst 10 this extent at least they were working
in harmony with the lesser cliques The re-
cent advance however. was sufficient TO in
duce prott-taking al the first signs OF weak
ness. and this explained the reaction which
followed IN the latter part OF the week
a powerful Leverage was available in the
great abundance Of money offered on call on
easy terms which makes 5 per cent stock look
fEfrly cheap at present figures. especially in
view Of the stronger foundation resulting from
psst liquidation II is quite evident that these
are the two principal factors in the market
AZ present and IL is premature 70 assume that
their force has yet been expended. No doubt
We should see much stronger market were
il not for the probability Of war in the Far
East the chances Of an unfavorable Northern
Securities decision and the deterrent effect of
an approaching Presidential campaign. These
considerations seem quite sufficient 10 hold
speculation within safe limits: for disturbing
developments IN any OF these uncertainties
would preciptste more or less reaction. The
cotton speculation is also a oisquieting fea-
ture. as IL not only deranges trade in the
staple but seriously affects manufacturers and
distributors Of cotton goods
GENERAL CONDITIONS
The condition Of the country ss whole,
ls both satisfactory and sound. Our farming
classes are exceptionally prosperous because
demand generally sas overtsken supply. High
rrices are being obtained for nearly All aCri-
cultural products and the situation is such
that the American farmer seems assured Of
another prosperous year. As for our indus
trial classes they are certainly better of than
ever In their history. The only difficulty
here Is that wages have risen 20 an almost
prohibitive point. and enterprise is consequent
y checked until necessary concessions are
made; concessions which would mean no hard
ship 10 labor but simply diminish the number
of unemployed Among the mercantile classes
the situation is exceptionally sound In this
quarter there has been little oyertrading and
our merchants as a class. have been singu-
lsrly conservative and fortunate In avoiding
TOO rapid expansion. OF course they have
been highly favored by the wonderful growth
~ the country An population ana resources;
neNertheiess the comparative absence OF the
speculative spirit among our trading classes
has been wholesome and encouraging feature.
THE MANUFACTURING SITUATION
when We come 10. the manufacturing stu
atlon We touch the weakest spot In the nation
our great industrial combinations may be the
best ever made 10 do the worlds work; but
rhey have been seriously handicapped at the
start by the financial abuses which are too
familiar 10 every one. In many cases they are
100 big and cumbersome 10 adjust themselves
readily TO changing conditions. and in nearly
all cases they are so weighted down with
watered securities TO make their future
srill the most serious financial problem OF the
future some day the reao1ustment here must
be made more complete; but that contingency
viii probably be postponed 10 a later date
should the country continue otherwise pros
porous, and In all probability will then come
gradually 10 avoid shock or panic.
Further. IL must not be forgotten that said
above the situation in this respect has been
immensely strengthened by the forced liqui-
dation Of 1903 which effectuslly removed many
of the weakest spots.
STOCKS AND BONDS
There has been a surprisingly good demand
for bonds. and many Of the recent new issues
have been readily taken Our railroads show
= disposition 10 90 slow in their improvements.
owing chiefly 10 the unsettled condition Of
tho iron and steel markets. As steel comes
are likely 10 increase and the railroads will
no doubt continue their outays At a later
period therefore. IL would cause no surprise
n their demands upon the money market were
70 expand The effect Of war would unQues-
fionably be temporarily depressing because Of
the strain which any new war loans would
impose upon the International money markets
American shares IN common with others would
be SOLD 70 provide funds. The decline how
ever. would not be serious and might as usual
be discounted IN advance. Just now the Pres
identisl comnaign does cut much Of a
figure. This is probably explained BY the be-
lief that a revival OF the issues OF the last
Two campaigns rs impossible. and that In COM
psrison with them IL will be a quiet affair
The general outlook for the market is con-
seQuently Favorable There are some i'm
portsnt uncertainties however and prices have
already had an important recovery: 50 that
unfsvorable Developments might easily preeipi-
tate sharp reactions This means good
trading market and profit on, all good stocks
purchased on the sharp break"