Fergus County argus. [volume] (Lewistown, Mont.) 1886-1946, 1904-11-23
FORECASTING
THE WEATHER
The Government Weather Men Are
Out With a Bulletin RidieuIing
Long Range Forecasts.
PUBLISHED FOR PROFIT ONLY
Careful Comparison Of Those Fore
casts and the Weather Prove
Their Worthlessness.

N. ~
section director OF the U. s. Weather
Bureau at Helena, the director says:
The persistent efforts of certain SO.
called long range weather coasters
10 foist their predictions upon the pub
lie for personal gain. has reached such
proportions that II is deemed adyIs.
able by the meteorologists OF the
country 10 take steps To counteract
the influence of those whom II is be.
lieyed are prey ng on the credulity of
the public.
Whether these men are honest and
have deceived themselves into actu.
ally believing in their alleged systems
of forecasting the weather months in
advance, or are actuated solely by the
desire for gain does not alter the fact
that public interests are subject TO in.
jury, especially by such predictions as
relate To severe storms. floods and
other phenomena of dangerous char
acter, the mere anticipation of which
will often have a more disastrous Of.
feet upon the uniformed and emo
tional than the actual occurrence of
the phenomena.
The general public will do well TO
take notice of the fact that by far the
greater number, If not practically all
Of the patrons of the periodicals an1
almanacs through which these fake
forecasts are disseminated are rural
residents. or other persons who lack
mail facilities, by which the daily fore
casts and weather maps of the U. S.
Weather Bureau could be furnished
them, and who for this reason are
not as well informed in regard to
storm warnings and forecasts as are
those who are more favorably situated
Tor receiving these reports. On the
other hand ID will rarely IL ever be
found that those who have interests
at stake that are subject to injury by
storm or food, and who are in touch
with Weather Bureau reports, are
among the victims Of this species of
humbuggery. Now if these long range
forecasts possess any merit, IL would
naturally be expected that practical
business men, who are quick 10 see
what is to their interest. would have
discovered IL. Take these so-called
forecasts for any year you like. and
there will be found for several OF the
summer months. predictions Of disas-
trous tornadoes. hurricanes or foods,
but II is safe to say that there Is not
an instance on record of life or prop
erty having been saved by them. II
we compare them in this respect with
the weather bureau warnings made
for periods of "a to As hours, we may
get fair idea of the relative value of
real and sham forecasts.
For II is beyond question that the
loss OF human life is often prevented
by the prompt warnings of the bu-
reau, and every month in the year
has its record of property saved. and
Ecarly every section of the country
contributes In some measure TO THIS
record. On the seacoast and great
lakes, ships remain In or seek har-
Dor when warned by It's signals Of ap.
preaching storms; along the Missis.
sippi river and its tributaries. every
warning Of food is now generally
needed, and property. In some instan.
ces amounting To millions OF dollars
in value. is removed above the food
stages predicted: in California and
| Florida. smudges are prepared in read.
mess. and other measures taken for
the protection Of fruit from frost,
when warnings are sent out: while
In our own state cattle and sheep in.
terestS profit by the warnings Of cold
waves and billiards.. and instances are
not wanting OF the saving OF entire
herds by these warnings. The fact
that these precautionary measures are
taken Dy thousands OF people year
after year. Is abundant proof Of the
value OF these warnings. and such
measures can proftably be taken only
when forecasts and warnings are de-
] finite both as to time and place.
But the distinctive marks OF all
long range forecasts are indefiniteness
and ambiguity. No long range fore
caster, for instance, would jeopardize
| the income from his almanac by spec
| flying the day of his storm. or the
state OF the section of state in which
It would occur, and his food predic
tions are equally indefinite as to the
\ river to be aected. These defects
alone are sufficient TO render Their
| work not merely worthless, but ac
tually detrimental to public interests
II, as in the case OF destructive Local
storms, people over an unlimited ter
ritory must prepare for disaster that
will at worst affect only few square
miles. II is far better on the whole
that no warning be given.
lf anyone who is inclined 10 put
faith In predictions OF this character
will undertake to apply them to his
own locality OF state. and will try &c
arrive at an opinion as to what kind
OF weather to expect on specified days
or will endeavor TO locate the days
on which storms will occur nj his vi
cinity. he will soon be convinced thai
such pretended information is Of nc
more value than is the knowledge
possessed by all that storms OF NOR,
or less severity invariably occur In
certain sections during the spring ant