The Birmingham age-herald., 1904-05-29
Caldwell & Wards Cotton Letter.

By Miller & Co.
 New York, May 2S-The cotton mar ket recently has been what might be termed a weather market so far as the new crop months are concerned as it is generally believed that good rains in east gulf and South Atlantic states would place the crop in a safe condition and tend to increase selling pressure in the late op- tions. July and August are susceptible to manipulation and now appear to be the source of contention for supremacy be- tween the two big factions with large blocks of cotton involved on both sides so there is likely to be some exciting movement in prices before the holdings of either side are 1iquidated During the past week July has shown strong resist ance in the face of marr>d weakness on the part of Liverpool. This depres- sion in Liverpool is generally credited to the work of prominent bear interests and the question arises may they not put themselves in quite an awkward position by this heavy selling when they attempt to cover the cotton in the face of New Y orlSA strength. There is a general im- pression that New Orleans bulls are quietly buying on every decline and it is only a question of time when they will accumulate such a line of July as will be far in excess of the ability of shorts to deliver in this market. If this is the case and the scramble comes to cover, there will be some sensational markets It Is said over 10000 bales of cotton are ready for shipment from New Orleans and it is further claimed that the New Orleans stocks will be around 100000 bales by June 15. If this is true, the many re- ports of curtailments which are coming in are undoubtedly due to necessity and their effort to make the cotton go round. We here quote from foreign cotton au- thority as follows:
 Tt is extremely difficult to at present forecast the situation but I am certainly convinced that the worlds trade in not buying at the moment Is preparing the way for a material bull reaction'
 This applies to the possible advance only in July and August options. The probability of which Is increased by con tinued lateness of the cotton, the delay in maturity of the new crop. The first government report of the season will be issued at 10:3O o'clock Saturday morn ing, June 4, and will show conditions up to Thursday night, May 26. The trade Is very much mixed as to what to expect. Last years report showed an average of TAI per cent which was of course very bullish being the lowest report on rec ord It is fully realized that the present crop, while not as bad as last year. is very much behind and stunted in growth due to cool and unreasonable weather and lack of moisture in the eastern sec tion of the belt. Bnt the fields are un- usually well cultivated and though there is some replanting yet to be done, stands are generally fair and 1t Is the popular telief that there is yet time, under favor- able conditions, that is good rains and warm weather to overcome the present bad prospects. If the approaching re- port shows an average under 80 per cent we think it would start bull movement, above that would have little effect, as it is generally considered the world needed large American crop this year. The port receipts last year from May "A to August 31 were 151.0 .000 This was so small that 1t is expected the receipts will run much larger for the remainder of this season. On any rally of the market un- less the drouth and unreasonable weather continues, we would favor selling the new crop months.