The Cairo bulletin., 1904-12-25

between 80 and - per cent IL IS
possible at times TO forecast with a
considerable degree of certainty tAe
coming weather changes as TO ca
hours in advance, but to pretend to be
able to fore-tell the weather a month,
or year in advance is, with our pres
ent knowledge on the subject, abs0-
lutte hambnggery and the most sur.
prisine thing about it is tina. there
are peraons of known intelligence
that give credenee TO such absurd pre-
tensions.
The Weather Bureau takes the pub
lie into IS confidence in this matter,
and does not wish he people to think
/ that it claims to be able, or attempts,
to do more than is possible OF accom-
plshment. While il il impossible TO
make long range predictions today.
based upon scientific principles, yet
I the ime may come when those prin-
cip'es underlying weather changes
viii be so understood that forecasts
for a month or season ean be made
in advance
1t IS astonishing the number OF 50
called long range weather prophets
thar we have in our midst, and their
number is no more astonishing than
is lie diversity and character OF their
methods These so-cailed long-raug
ers 40 not cunfne themselves to az
tempting TO predict the weather
changes. but also include predictions
of floods. and seismic disturbances
Biologists tell us that ear hquakes
are due 10 several causes. namely
volcanic action, falling-in OF under
ground cayerns, elevation of land
strata eaured by the swapping Of the
earth due TO powerful stresses set
up by The contracting Earth. and 20
subterranean streams at great depths
becoming Intensely heated and eaus
ing explosions. yer these iong-ranger /
pretend 10 know months and years in
advance inst when The volcanoes are
to become active. when the under |
ground eayerns are 10 collapse. when |
the ear MS strata will break suddenly |
and when water buried to great |
DEPTHS will be converted into steam
causing explosions which produce up |
heavals and violent vibrations Of the |
earths crust. They prepare heir pre-
dictions IA months. or longer. in adj I
vance Of a portion OF the period for
Shich they attempt 70 predict. They /
might jus as well make it II years
Of even IA centuries. for according to
thcir me.hods and the yeriiications
Oh aimed. it is just as easy TO predict
in advance the weather for the com
ing century as it is to predict it for
the next year.
These fakes, for fakes they are, be
guile the credulous by inserting in 4
their forecasts statements hat win
be confirmed in a general way, as
for instance, they tell you that next
January you may expect cold weather.
and next July warm weather, and o
on. Some OF hem have a fair knowl
edge Of meteorology, but. instead of
using this knowledge in an honest
manner instead of trying to enlighten
those interested in and benefited by
the practical side of the science. they.
Tor selfish, mercenary purposes, use
hi- knowledge for he sole purpos
lf deluding the uniformed. cannot
Jclive that those of their number that
have a knowledge OF meteorology are
sincere, and that they really believe
nat they have discovered a method
BY which they can fore ell The wealth
'r a Year in advance Following the
weather conditions as they no doubt
10 from day to day. they certainly
must see how preposterous are their
'o-called predictions On the other
land there are some tha. have no
m elementary knowledge of meteor ,
iicgy nor an elementary knowledge
lf anything else, but who seem to
mink that they have been gifted witt
he faculty OF prophesying the wea.h-
'r This class is harmless {
nave had some of ne lonarang I
RS send me taeir predictions fer veri.
ication. and for the life of me. / could |
lot tell from their statements what
hey We're predicting, or where I I
would have to 20 for verifiea ion. (
They say il is goirg TO rain. it is 70. {
ng o be warm. it is going to storm. {
md there are going 10 be earth. S
luakes. but whore, that is the ques- I
ion 90 not wish 70 take M too L
1uca = YOUR valuable space. but / c
.esire % give here the predictions of /
wo of these wea'her-fakes for the t
month Of November 1904. These So II
allied predictions were. very likely.
repaired u months. or more In ad d
anee o1 the period predicted for n
hey are as follows d
The FIRST oac reads-"1. .. 3. clear h
iesty nigh s; g. Z. fair and pleasant: Il
. :. 8. very eYore winds; 9, 10. II. e
,. l@- !. clear and pleasant with il
Old Di.fts: IS. l6, misty and cloudy h
ondit.eez IN general; II. is. 10. local C
aims Z# y %. clear and frosty: q. a
- - cold higher temperature. %. n
q y. tair ana agreeable: %. 80. high e
1nds accompanied by snow nurries. n
The second one reads-'1 '1st-3rd.
.ouly ftheth changeable: 7th-9th. d
2oi aud clear; loth-12th. cold and 81
ain 3ta-1Hh pleasant: I5thLl7th. hi
-ondT snd sn5T 1Sth-20th, clear and a