New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1904-02-01
THE NOON AND THE WEATHER

uoteoroloclsts In Russia have recently been
annoyed by the systematic Issue Oh IoAs IS
weather forecasts by q civil engineer nanleu
I,or,,scb,nskv The man has a periodical or
his own for the FORMULATION Of bis theories
The most important OF which Is that the moon
exercises n considerab BILE influence upon temper
sturA changes. air pressure and rainfall bis
predictions sppear In that publication ana also
In q number Of newspapers Though DEM
tscbinsky may be honest II his beliefs. ne does
not appear TO he averse TO uotorlety. he uaS
allowed a rumor TO 20 uncontradlcteo thA' theIe
is q prospect of his being put In charge OF 'Ae
United States Weather Bureau at WashinS'oh'
One effect of these predictions ana stories -
70 puzzle volunteer Observers for tne estao
lshed meteorological service ana TO paFaiyLe
,,,eir enthusiasm. In other ways, Also no
doubt the cause OF science is hurt oy Dem
tschinsky's utteTances
Professor Klossovsky. OF the University oil
Odessa, has thus been impelled TO undertahe
an elaborate review of the forecasts In question
and the principles which they are tounued'
lie undermines the system itself al number
Of points and finally shows that only about
70 ner cent of the predictions are verified. In
other words. there Is no more certainty OF ther
fuinlmcnt than about the result of tossing up
& coin DtmNSCliAohs 70 'ANA~As
game OF heads and tails" OF course. when
the chances are even that he may be right or
wrong. his assurances are valueless. Under
the auspices OF the American government the
rite Of veridcation Is fully four out of Eve. or
over so ner cent. Professor Klossevsky has
done valuable service In thus exposing the
worthiessuess Of Demtschinssv's work. Not
the least commendable feature Of bis review Is
a challenge with which Il ends. The pseudo
meteorologist Is Invited TO consent 70 plan
whereby his system and his predictions shall
be considered by commission OF experts. IL
he declines his hesitation will be significant
confession % lack OF confidence in his own
divinations
The truth Is. Demtschlnshy is far behind thc
times. In Europe and America the idea that
the moon controls the weather has been sug-
gested repeatedly during the last twenty or
thirty years. The possibility has been inves-
tigated BY numerous meteorologists OF good
reputation, and has been practically discarded.
II the Russian engineer who has recently en-
tertained the theory had read the books OF
Sprung Van Bebber and Ham. he would have
had his eyes open TO his mistake. Several ex-
cuses for a short lived faith in the hypothesi,
can be found. but it will not stand the test Of
application TO all countries alike and for long
been summed UP more accurately than by FRO.
fessor William NJ Davis. Of Harvard Uni
verslty. he says In his elementary Meteor
oloGy" that whatever slight excess OF one
weather element or another there may be
az certain times Of the lunation. Il has no
sufficient value for prediction. In his jud--
ment forecasts based upon the Influence OF the
moon or planets ARE no better than the for
gotten predictions OF astrology.- Long range
forecasts OF practical value are likely TO come
before many years. but the moon does not
F promise my help in formulating them.
a discussion Ot this kind raises the uues-
ton. What constitutes a trustworthy authority
In scienceI Official position and university
/ degrees count Tor something but they are not
vital Neither does foudness for studying
hatural phenomena-weather disease. the
movements OF the stars or the habits NJ in
sects-rake man true scientist Educa-
ton Is important. careful and prolonged oh.
servation Is needful. but the one great essential
/ IS the right method OF testing theories which
suggest themselves to fertile minds rba
process calls for the exercise OF n logical TO-.
/ ulty possessed by comparatively few No r,..-
ter how distinguished the original dIscovo-o-
/ or new fact or the author Of n new tbeo-v-
De ne Faraday. Pasteur SchiarareIlJ or Ram.
-say-science demands Independent corrohor,
uon before accepting the alleged rera1otso,
II VIII approve no so-called law Of nature tho,
does not yield In the hands OF others. nrororIv
trained. the sane results ms frs earliest adv
/ Gates announce II the doctrine that the r,oo,
seriously Influences the weather will not STAND
,his rest II may be guesswork or superstition.
/ but 1t is not science
/
Police ROUFOS