The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1904-09-09
The Likeness OF This Campaign to
That OF 1900.


That OF 1900.
As this canvass proceeds its likeness
to that of 1900 becomes more and more
striking. The Democratic managers
made the mistake then which they have
made this year of giving emphasis to
the Vermont election by predicting a
diminution in the Republican majority
which would indicate an unmistakable
Democratic drift throughout the Union
The Republicans were wiser. They then,
as also this year, forestalled the effect
of possible Republican loss by express
ing doubts of retaining their full SUE
premacy.
When, therefore, the returns from YER
mont showed Republican majority
of nearly $1,000 and no falling off in the
party's poll for Governor from that of
1900, yet diminution in the Democratic
poll. the effect of the victory was the
more impressive. Last Wednesday Demo-
cratic spirits dropped almost to despair,
for the falling of in Democratic votes
was OF ominous suggestion. 1t does
not look as II the Parker campaign was
stirring up the Democrats.
Vermont, it is true, is an agricultural
State, with only two cities, Burlington
and Rutland, containing together only
81 ,585 inhabitants in 1903 according to
the recent estimate Of the Census Bureau,
out OF a total estimated population of
the whole State of 947,OO7. More than
hine-tenths Of the poll, therefore, was
rural or In small towns and villages.
The distinction between urban and
rural, however, is passing away very
largely, even in the Green Mountain
State, because of the increase Of the
facilities for rapid communication and
the general reading Of urban papers in
place of the old political weekly of the
country town. The tone of the YER
mont rural population may be- said to be
fairly representative 0r tina. of New
York communities and to indicate that
Republicans are sticking to their party
and that there is going to be no apathy
among them on the 9Th of November.
1t also proves that no such political
revolution as would be required to elect
Judge PARKER is gathering.
In September, 1900, Senator JONES the
Democratic chairman, talked about the
certainty of carrying New York and
Indiana, for example, and set down the
election of BRYAN as a sure thing. On
the other hand, Senator HANNA, the
Republican chairman, sent out an inter-
view from Chicago in which he expressed
doubt of winning those States for Mr.,
MCKINLEY. That is, the Democratic
campaign was campaign Of bluff and
the Republican campaign was one of
reasonable caution, and sensible people
had more confidence in reserve and pru-
dence than in bluff.
In 1900 after the Vermont election
the betting odds in favor Of Mr.. McKIN-
LEY increased. They rose to 2la to /.
Mr.. CROKER was reported to have bet
20 to SO on BRYAN. A like effect has
followed the Vermont election of last
Tuesday. Odds on Mr. ROOSEVELT,
which before had been 10 to 7 or 10 to
65, rose to 10 to S, and if the Republican
majority in Maine next Monday shall
also approach high water mark we are
likely to see the odds of 1900 repeated.
As to the State of New York, there is
still reason for MUCH doubt as to the re-
suit on Nov. 8. If the Republicans do
no better than in 1902, when they beat the
Democrats by less than two-thirds OF
per cent, it will be very close election,
with the Republicans ahead by only
about ten thousand votes out OF more
than, 100000 Generally Wall Street
betting on the State is even, with dis
position to give slight odds to the Dem
oerats; but the odds are likely to be in
creased II Maine repeats next Monday
the demonstration of undiminshed Re-
publican strength made in the Vermont
election IF last Tuesday.
:. The casvass. however, has yet two