Rock Island Argus. (Rock Island, Ill.) 1893-1920, 1904-10-24
GAIN TO PARTY
MADE LAST WEEK
Sharp Preference for Parker
Growing Daily More
Evident
NEW YORK PIVOTAL STATE
Odds of Bettors Shown by History of
Past Campaigns to Sc
Misleading.

New York. Oct. 24-An impartial
review of political events of the last
week leads to the conclusion that, while
the presidential contest is close, the
trend of sentiment is with the demOc
racy. and the outlook fayors the cleo
ton of Parker and Davis more strongly
than has been the case at any previous
stage OF the campaign. At two very
important points the Democratic lines
have been materially strengthened,
namely in New York and Indiana, and
it is by no means certain that they have
been weakened anywhere The re,
publican managers will deny the truth
Of these statements, for upon their part
it is evidently a studied policy to rep
resent democratic prospects as hope
| less in every state save those in the
south. which are always democratic,
while at the same time boasting of the
! irresistible strength of their own tic
ket almost everywhere except in the
south. This is part and parcel Of the
plan of bluff and brag which was
adopted by the administration at the
very outset of the campaign. and
which the republican managers have
been instructed to adhere to until the
the day of election.
Betting in This and Past Years.
The republicans point to the bet
ting in Wall street and to the boom
| in the stock market as certain indi-
cations of coming victory for their
party. but history teaches us that
| these are slender reeds upon which
to lean. In 1892 the stock market was
! bullish preceding the election. and on
the 9th &C November. three days be
fore election, Thomas II. Carter, then
chairman Of the republican national
committee. issued a statement, which
was sent out by the Associated Press.
in which he congratulated the COun-
try upon its evident decision to stand
! by the grand old republican party
and to rebuke once more the enemies
of American progress and prosperity
| In concluding his brief congratulations
address, Chairman Carter called at
tention TO the remarkable buOyancy
| of the cereals and stock markets,
which. he remarked. lis plainly due
to the absolute certainty of a coming
triumph for the republican party and
Its wise policies" Three days later
| the city of New York Gncluding the
| five boroughs now constituting the
municipality gave Cleveland 100000
| plurality. the state of New York gave
him nearly $4,000, and he swept the
country. carrying the "solid south,
New York, New Jersey, Connecticut
| Illinois. Wisconsin and Indiana, and
getting electoral votes in half a dozen
other states. including Illinois, Michl
gan, California and Ohio. The Wall
street betting had favored Harrison
throughout the campaign. and the
odds were on Harrison until the clos
ing weeks of the contest. when they
veered to Cleveland. On the eve of
the election professional betting was
even on the general result. but repub-
lican politicians continued to buster
and "claim everything
Many Fake WnEers I'm Wall street.
| The New York Evening Post and
the New York World have made Il
careful investigation within the last
few days and each of them reports
that it is impossible to verify the
| large volume of betting alleged to
! have taken place in the Wall street
district The Post asserts that not
more than 100000 has actually been
wagered on the general result of this
| election. while the World puts the
! figures at not TO exceed $4,000 II
one is to credit the announcements
made "on the curb" from day 10 day
several hundred thousand dollars have
been bet on Roosevelt at odds of from
10 to to 10 10 9 Both the Post and
the World state that most Of the al
legged betting at these odds is ficti
tious: neither the parties nor the
money are in evidence. The fact is
that an examination of the files of the
New York newspapers shows that bet
ting on the presidency before the
| final week of a campaign has seldom
proved reliable as an Indicator d
what was coming. and in one notable
instance the final betting was utterly
Idiscredited by the result Of the elec
Ition. Cleveland was the favorite a
lodds Of 100 TO 50 on the eve of tht
election in 1885 but Harrison defeated
him. even carrying New York. IN 187'
odds Of 100 to - were given on Hayc
al the beginning Of the campaign. an'
those odds were maintained until tn
closing week Of the contest, whel
they We're hammered 10 "eveus' b.
the Tilden men. who. in many cases
gave odds on their favorite. In 1S8
Garfield had the betting odds righ
along. In 1884 Blaine was a 2 to "a
vorite for weeks after the nomina
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