The Montgomery advertiser., 1904-09-07
COTTON.

NEW YORK, Sept s.-For the informa. tion of many inaulring friends. I publish the following in reply to letter addressed 70 me by . gentleman Tn the South critt- cizing my recent publicly expressed change of opinion in regard to tl.e cotton market. l may say that the doveiorments of today do not lead to modify my expectation of substantially lover prices for cotton durine the period when receipts are likely to bs heaviest, and think that those who have cotton which they must dispose of within the next two months will do wisely to ac- eept current qn,t, quotations @
 Dear sir;-I reply particularly to your letter today. in which you suggest that my recent M shanse sf front in regard to the prob able course of the cotton market will de- prfve me of all following and any capacity of market leadership in the future In reply thereto beg to say first that I do not aspire to so-called market leadership and think 1t e detriment rather than an ad- vantage so far as 1t affects a speculator's c money making capacity. It burdens him transactions and renders 1t difficult for him to liquidate his own. So far as my change of opinion is concerned. I can only quote you Emersons trite remark that Consistency is a weakness of the narrow minded" and tell you with Josh Billings that "A wise man changes his opinions; a fool, never" reserve the right to change my opinions without, however. arrogating to myself. by implication even any superior wisdom It is because sometimes see that other people are wiser than am that I change my opinions. To my thinking there arc two classes of facts which the specuia- tor in cottop or in anything else must be mathematical. which may be subdivided Into facts absolute and facts deductrve The other class Is facts psychological. which. although exceedingly elusive. arc quite as important as mathematical certain ties in dealing with an article in which the speculative public is as enormous that at present trading in cotton. You must bear in mind that there are probably not less than 10000 people actively interested in the cotton market at all times. and in periods of great activity this number is largely increased. If each of those persons buys or sells only one hundred bales, the demand for supply of contracts thus cre- ated represents an aggregate of one million bales Of cotton and is force that Is simply overwhelming in its preponderance
 Once set in action by any leader it gem erally goes to excesses that overwhelm him and carry him and his following to disas- ter, as witness, the Sully debacle of last spring. It became. therefore in my opinion very important to anticipate correctly, if possible. the impulses which move or set In action this Irresistible force of public speculation. and 1t is equally important that any tendency toward exaggerated opinion and hysterical action shall be overcome.
 It is because l saw. or thought saw. that great many people who had no possible use for cotton except to resell It at an ad- vance in the form of contracts that I sold out my cotton Thursday morning last and of the fact, and 1t Is because I now see or think I see. that the Government report Issued Friday is certain to result in a re- crudescence of the 12.o00,0 bale talk that I am unwilling to buy cotton for an ad- vance until after some comparative decline in the movement shall corroborate the re- ports of crop damage. This can not pos sbly occur within the next two months and l therefore think my expectation of gradu- ally declining prices for the next two months is sound.
 You must bear in mind that the spinner Is the final arbiter of cotton values If there were no spindles to use it. cotton would not be worth anything. however small the crop It was withdrawal of the spinner that punctured last years specula- ton. and in the face of a report from the Government which so effectively negatives individual reports of crop shortage, the spinner Is not going to buy cotton except at what he considers a reasonable price. Mean- time we face to face with probably the largest September and October receipts on record. and in my opinion the effect of this movement. in combination with a proh- ably slack demand from manufacturers. will create within the next sixty days a bearish sentiment so strong that it would overwhelm either you myself should we attempt to oppose 1t.
 THEODORE H. PRICE.