The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1904-07-18
PoLITicAL FORECASTS

1t must be admitted, to begin with.
that all estimates of possibilities on
the presidential vote are, to a large
extent, guesswork on both sides. Were
it not SO there would be no election,
for there would be no need of one.
There is small list of states, princj-
pally at the South, whose vote can be
counted for Parker just as confidently
as If it had been registered. There is
another small list consisting Of states
like Pennsylvania, Iowa, Maine and
Vermont, which can just as certainly
be counted for Roosevelt. The point
which we wish to make here is that, in
and in measuring possibilities, one
must remember that the last two
presidential elections are little guide.
Conditions have changed since then
changed immeasurab1y to the advan-
tage of the Democratic party-and in
figuring where the other states are
going to stand we must turn back ito
the vote in 1892 and in 1888, and get
what information we can about
changes that have occurred since then
likely to transfer important states
from one column to another.
1t is on this basis that T he Glob e,
made its estimate of Friday morning.
That estimate holds good. We, con-
cede, of course, that it may be in large
part overturned by the event. What
We do contend is that there is no ex-
travagant claim contained in it,; that
1t is a reasonable, conservative esti-
mate and that 1t foreshadows the
probability Of a Democratic victory.
We avoided carefully the absurdities
into which the ante election calculator
is almost always led by his synpathies
and desires.
For instance, an esteemed contern-
porary has attempted the same task
with, we are prepared to believe, de-
sire On it's own part to be fair, be-
cause the voter cannot be fooled, but
it finds the condition impossible. In
an article criticising the figures Of
those who support Judge Parker it
makes out list of states of which it
says that each has been, at one time
or another, claimed as possibly DEM
Onr9tiC h11f pyhi oS mo- Of 20 ~
are as certain to go Republican as al
most any of the concedediy Repub-
lican states" Now the very first name
in this list is that of California with:
ten votes. In 1896 the Republican plu-
ralfty in California was 2,7s7 votes.
In 1892 it had sent eight Democrats
and one Republican to the electoral
college. In 1900 the Republican plu-
rality was nearly 10000, and 1t is pre-
sumably on this vote that the rosy
prediction Of our contemporary is
based. Yet only two years later, in
1902, the Republican plurality in the
state on the vote for governor was but
1.500, with more than 10000 scattering
votes cast for minor candidates. In
other words. the Republican share OF
the vote in that year was trifle below
4S per cent, as against nearly 471s per
cent for the Democratic candidate.
Now it is preposterous to claim a
state with such record as certainly
or even probably Republican. It's ap-
pearance in list of 'sconcededIy Re-
publican states" vitiates the whole,
We do not know where Calffornia.s
votes will be given, but we do know
that there is at least an even chance
that they will be cast for Parker. We
do not know who will be elected pres
fdent, but we believe that the safest
and most accurate forecast yet made
is that published by The Globe on
Friday morning.