Yorkville enquirer. [volume] (Yorkville, S.C.) 1855-2006, 1904-11-18
#iseellaneoas 8eadins.
LONG RANGE FORECASTS.
Section Director Bauer Says They Are
Impraetieable.

Section Director Bauer Says They Are
Impraetieable.
Correspondence Of the Yorkville Enqultsr.
COLUMBIA, November 15.-The slow
and laborious progress Of all the
sciences, from the earliest dawn of
civilization, has been hampered and
burdened by the actions Of men incap-
able of mastering the principles in
volved in the study Of science, yet with
the keenness to be alive to the possi-
bilities of science for the public good.
These men were unscrupulous enough
to assume the to them false garb of
knowledge, and In that false garb pose
as apostles Of the science, for personal
gain and utterly regardless Of the good
of humanity. In their false guise, 1t Is
true, these imposters were but the
Laughing stock of men Of science and
deemed unworthy Of serious notice,
while the ignorant and credulous be-
llieyed more readily in the false than
lin the true, as the former promised
more, were more mysterious, claimed
to know it all, and 1t Is too sadly true,
that the people in ages past, as In our
own age delighted in being humbug-
ged and were willing to pay for their
| pleasure.
Thus it was that the beautiful
science Of astronomy that demonstrates
with such exactness the motion OF the
heavenly bodies and that teaches other
properties that pertain to them only,
gave rise to the astrologer who made
| the credulous believe that planets had
an influence on the destinies Of men,
until wiser age destroyed the fallacy.
Thus II was that chemistry gave rise
to the alchemist who in his mysterious
and preternatural processes made the
credulous believe that he had the COM
mand of the much sought for elixir
of life. Thus 1t was that the science
of medicine gave rise to the quacK
with his nostrums and who, even To-
day, deludes the sick and afflicted with
his deadly doses; and thus 1t is that
the beautiful and intricate science OF
meteorology and weather forecasting
has given rise to its own peculiar par
asites, a host of long range weather
forecasters, that in a mysterious ana
wholly irrational way claim to be able
| to foresee that which patient, hard and
intelligent study Of meteorology py
learned men in all parts Of the world,
has not been able to do. and by them
has been declared impracticable.
It Is true that our own weather pu-
| reau and the meteorological services
of other countries have demonstrated
the practicability Of forecasting the
| weather for from one, two or In very
favorable conditions three days in ad-
vance with reasonable accuracy, but
honest forecasters, with one accord,
ieny the possibility Of forecasting the
weather for q month or season In ad-
vance, and yet. these charlatans, fakes,
or whatnots, who make fair thougn
| fraudulent living by selling such fore.
casts to the public, and, what Is still
more strange, reputable papers. that
ordinarily are not willing parties 10
any fraud publish such forecasts IN
their columns.
| The desirability Of long range fore
casts Is: admitted, their usefulness, II
thew were possible, cannot be gainsaid,
and their attempt Is not deprecated, on
the contrary success Is ardently hoped
for and encouraged on rational grounds
but their practicability Is, at present,
wholly denied and can be shown by
any attempt, however friendly, to YER
ify them whenever made. People who
are familiar with meteorology know
this. but the many have not studied the
science, and Influenced by their desire
for knowledge and misled by the spur
ious through plausible claim OF un-
principled long range forecasters,
readily buy and believe the goods 10
he genuine. Few test its worth by ac-
tual verification, but credulously ac-
cept an accidental agreement between
the forecasted weather and what ac-
tually occurred as convincing PROOF,
while the failures that so numerously
happen. IL noted at all are charftably
forgiven and forgotten. 1t would IN
deed be strange II some or the long
range forecasts did not prove correct,
for the chances are about as one IN hVe
that they will, II ordinary intelligence
| Is exercised in making them, and II IS
this probability of chances that gives
| life to the long range forecaster. But
he has other deceptive devices sucn
as clothing his forecasts In the most
general and indefinite language, he
guards carefully against any attempt
to disprove his forecasts and keeps
omen a loophole for escape, also Dy
| stating that he has in mind some oth-
| or section Of the country where the
forecasted conditions did actually oc-
cur. ,5
| While meteorology has made rapid
progress in the last fifty years, anu
the fact has been amply demonstrated
that the weather Is governed by laws
as certain In their operations as those
governing other phenomena OF nature
vet Il has not advanced far enough 10
enable the weather to be forecasted
for a season or even month In aa-
vance. The weather bureau makes no
claim to be able to make correct fore-
casts for periods longer than one, Two
or at longest three days, and Tor tne
longest period there must be very ue-
cided conditions as shown by the daily
survey of the atmosphere by Its nu-
merous trained and skilled observers.
With all the skill and training by the
best talent available and with as con-
scientious effort as true and nones.
men are capable of mistakes VIII anu
do occur.
| Long and careful observation mas
shown that weather changes are not
dependent on planetary influence. NOT
is weather forecasting a matter or IN
spiration, but ability to make reliaole
forecasts comes from hard study, long
training and intelligent observation.
II is absurd to believe that when IN
telligent, scholarly men, who nave
made meteorology specially tne
world over are in full accord In tnelr
denial of the practicability OF making
laccurate long range weather forecasts
that a man ignorant Of the very laws
on which the forecasts are based ana
relying on mystical, non existing pla-
lnetary influences, or on inspiration
which means nothing save an erratic
mental condition, should be able 10
make them.
The weather bureau today Is giving
1.-The people the best service possible, put
not content with the success alreaoy
attained, it has In the past, ana is no"
stndvine every available and suggest
cd means of improving and extending
the scope and amplitude Of its fore
casts, for both short and long perloos,
land should long range forecasts ever