The San Francisco call., 1904-08-24

COTTON.

NEW YORK. Aug. %. 1s04-On ths
I'd of August L advised the world TO
buy cotton. irrespective OF the showing
made by the Government report Since
that time the market has advanced a
cent a pound I again urge those who
next six months TO secure their sup
plies. if practicable, on the basis OF
present prices.
The fall Of Port Arthur is imminent.
pacific Intervention by the powers VIII
probably follow. and the impulse there
by given 10 the worlds industry and
the American and British export trad5
IN cotton goods particularly will prove
the most important since the reSump-
ttOn OF specie payment by the United
Of the crop is rapidly deteriOrating. In
my opinion. the condition is no better
than II was at this time last year. and.
allowing for the reported increase in
acreage. the Indicated crop at present
is hardly over 100000 bales. 1t is
generally admitted that a moderate crop
Will pass into consumption on the basis
Of II cents a pound. and that a short
crop means a repetition OF last year 3
wild speculation.
The depredations OF the boil weeviI,
which infest larger area in Texas than
I ever before, account IN part for the
tant is the insuf1cienCy Of labor in the
South for the cultivation Of the crop
In the past fourteen years the increase
Government is SO per cent. The crop
of 1901 was $500. 900 bales. The crop
of 1904 is 100000
The increase in production therefore
is only about Is per cent. There is no
possible prospect that the coming crop
will show an increase over that OF 1890
commensurate with the increase in
acreage. The reason for this is not
hard to find
While the increase in acreage in the
South for the past fourteen years has
been So per cent. the increase in the
negro population Of the South during
the same period has only been "a per
cent; and in Texas. Oklahoma and In
dian Territory the increase in acreage
since 1890 is 124 per cent while the
increase in the negro population is only
45 per cent. Experience has proved that
under the hot Southern suns the negro
alone can be used for the cultivation OF
cotton. and the rapid industrial deVel-
Opment Of the South has drawn heavily
upon the negro population for labor IN
its mines lumber camps and railways.
1t is probably true that against an
increase in cotton aCreag ge IN the South
of SO per cent in fourteen years the
increase IN negro labor available Tor It's
cultivation mas not been over y Pc
These facts. which are taken from the
United States census. point indubitably
to only one conclusion.
The South has for the past five years
been planting more cotton acreage than
can be cultivated by the labor avail
able, and the rapid deterioration in its
condition now being reported. and which
for the past four years. has generally
commenced to develop about this time
evidences this laOk of cultivation Dur
ing the early months Of its growth it
needs but little care. Without care
during its critical period 10 IS bound
TO deteriorate. We may as we'll accept
in my opinion that the maximum cotton
productive capacity OF the South was
reached five years ago and cannot be-
again attained until the disprOportiOn
between its negro population and its
acreage shall have been adjusted. No
such readjustment seems possible with
in the present generation.
Spinners OF cotton and consumers OF
cotton goods will do well 20 pondeE and
to heed the significance OF these facts.
THEODORE II. PRICE