The Savannah morning news. (Savannah, Ga.) 1900-current, 1904-08-26
3 Average.

1t will be noticed that last month
my correspondent, under date of July
20, reported an average condition with
in 2-10 of l per cent. of the govern
ment report and average of the entire
belt and the condition by states, my
correspondent and the government
were closely in accord From the fore
going figures it will be admitted that
all prospects of a bumper cotton crop
in the South for the coming year must
be abandoned, and that for the fifth
successive season the world is con-
fronted with an insufficiency in it's
cotton supply. Various reasons are
assigned for the deterioration which
has so invariably set in during the
final months of the plants develop
ment for the past five years. Unques-
tionably the first in Importance is the
boil weevil. which now infest two
thirds of the cotton acreage in Texas.
The impairment of the seed, the
exhaustion of the land and the in
sufficiency of labor are other theories
upon which five successive crop fail
ures may be explained. If possible
that the seed impairment theory has a
basis of truth. If probable that ex-
haustion for land has not been coun-
terbalanced by the use of fertilizers,
but the operation of neither of these
influences is susceptible of statistical
proof. There can be no question what
soever is to be the insufficiency of
labor and 1 submit the following facts
as sufficient of the explanation of the
growing disparity between the acre
age and cotton production of the
Southern states. These figures are
based upon the census returns of 1900,
the average annual increase in the
population for the decade having been
applied to the figures of 1900 in order
to approximate the facts of 1904.
Population and cotton acreage.
Southern states. 1S9S-01 10000, in
crease ten years; 1904-5, increase IA
years. 19.469.617. %, $50 $50; 81 per cent,
S1,731,000. 6S per cent. Total popula-
ton, 1S90-1900 increase 10 years, indi-
Gated 1904. increase IA years, 1875, 1856,
19,766,O56, "a per cent; 24,1s9. 206, 80 per
cent. Rural population, presumably
agriculturaD, 1S90-1900. increase 10
years. indicated 1904-14 years increase,
1S.102,24S. 1906. 731; 1871 per cent, TO-
45l,75S 25.6 urban population in towns
of 4,0O0 or over presumably non-agri-
cultural; 1S90-1900 increase 10 years,
and 1904, increase IA years, 2,S73,107
4159.325; AIS per cent, 4,737, 453; ga.
per cent. Total negro population Cur
ban and rural distribution not obtain
able). 1S9O-19OO, increase 10 years. and
1904. increase IA years, 6.140,201, 1872
301; is per cent, 1888, 1856, 243 per cent.
These figures show that in the past
fourteen years the cotton acreage of
the South has increased So per cent e,
while the rural population, white and
negro, has increased only 25.6 per cent.
Not practicable to determine what
proportion of the rural population of
the cotton states is engaged I'm cotton
culture. In the years ending 1900. the
number of manufacturing establish
ments I'm the cotton states had increased
from 81. 334 I'm 1890 to 70.27S i'm 1900. or
1914 per cent, and the capital so en-
ployed had increased from $402. s53. $40
10 S79S.S75.163. or 81 per cent. as the
increase in the manufacturing inter-
ests OF the South has been relatively
greater than that of the cotton acre.
age. probably that the disproportion be-
tween the rural population available
for the culture of cotton. and the in
crease i'm acreage Is even greater than
the above figures indicate. but assum-
ing that one-fifth of the population is
engaged I'm cotton culture. which is a
very liberal estimate: II would appear
that In 1890. 10, $4,000 acres OF cotton
were cultivated by 100000 people. or
an average OF one-half acre per person.
I'm 1904, 3i.13i 900 acres must be cuti-
waited by 3.29S 900 people an average
of nearly ten acres per person. From
this statement only one conclusion can
be drawn. Namely that the cultiva-
ton less efficient. and the yield per
acre. therefore. when we come to study
relationship between the increased In
the negro population. and the cotton
acreage. this view Of the case Is even
more impressive The economic con-
sideration that led 10 the war Of the
confederacy was the idea that the con-
troll ~ the negro WAS essential 10 the
cotton supremacy 81 the South. prob
ability that this theory r. about 20
ma its economic proof The negro
alone can cultivate cotton effectively
under the hot southern sun. in the
pact fourteen years the cotton crop