The Tupelo journal., 1904-11-04
Bright Hopes
For Democracy.
Confidence of Republican
Managers Beginnin G
To Shake
Some New Factors
BY H. gibson GARDNER.

| BY H. gibson GARDNER.
| Chicago, Nov. 2.-For the first
time since the Presidential cam
paign opened the Republicans who
are very close to the political
situation are beginning to be sha
ken in their confidence. The opin.
ION is not general,and is not reflect
ell in those superficial indexes of
sentiment the betting odds.
But for thei first time the fore.
cast have begun to take note of
[some new factors hitherto nea alcted
| So, a very few of the Democratic
managers whose penetration goes
below the superficial indications
have to see a new hope.
The most carefully made polls
are proving 10 be battling. The
campaign has been ABSOLUTELY
unique, unlike any campaign that
ever has gene before. May not
the outcome be equally out OF the
ordinary! This is the qustion
which has begun to haunt the
dreams Of the political managers.
AS it has been a campaign of
silence, SO may it not be possible
that the election will be one of
surprises?
The great silent vote has not
been polled. That is fact which
managers of both parties are
beginning to realize. Radically diff
erent and entirely new conditions
have been quietly at work. Can
the politician judge by past po-
lical happenings what Will be the
effect of these forces in the number
of votes cast for and against the
two candidates?
Here, for example, is a con-
dition to which the confident Re-
publican forecasters have been
blind, or which they have careful
ly ignored: Four and eight years
ago the labor vote was more or
less scoerced" in the interest of
the Republican candidate This
year the conditions are So differ
ent that there has been no effort
by employer to use his moral in
fiuence on the employed. The
man il factory. or other line
Of employment, is left to drift in
the political current. 1t may take
him into the Democratic stream,
or he may 60 with that swelling
stream OF Socialists; or he may
6nd himself dissatisfied with the
two great parties and taking the
lead Of the brilliant Tom Watson.
In any case, he does not find his
employer much concerned. ''The
factory or Office has not been
"organized." There is no tip|
from the foreman or from the
Nboss himself that the election Of
the Democratic candidate will
mean running On short time and
lay-off for the men. The EN-
ploye finds himself free to 60 as
he may choose, and many are
choosing to 60 outside Of regular
party lines.
What will be the effects of the
great drafts which the Socialist
and Fopulist and Prohibition par
ties will make on the labor voteY
In all communities where the Re-
publicans have succeeded in past
years, in holding it in line the ef-
feet will be serious Republican
loss. The party which had most
of the labor vote before will suffer
most. Has sufficient allowance
been made for this lossl
Again, has sufficient allowances
been made for the general ground
| work fact that the Democracy this
year is conservative? There is no
denying that the sudden transfor-
nation OF the party at st Louis
was wrought with travail and was
followed by bitter complaNings
from the radical element. There is
| no denying that the party has suf-
ferd serious losses in the revolt of
the Western contingent, " b o
found themselves displaced in the
party control and outraged by the
change Of party policy. But these
losses are numerically heaviest in
the West, where Republican Ism ia
intrenched aud in states which are
Lot essential factors in this elec-
ton. In the East and in the doubt
full territory it cannot be over
looked that the loss of radicals has
been heavily compensated by q
| gain ia the silent conservative ele-
ment, which IS normally lined up
with the Republican organization.
Has this silent conservative ele-
meat been sufficiently taken into
account?
| The doubtful aspect which has
come over the great state Of New
York-the doubtful aspect even
from the data gathered by Repub.
lican workers indicates that
these silent forces haye been hay
ling their effect. In Indiana ii is
i Ionuallu ovidant that thew have hod