The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1904-09-07
Il. HOLBFRT &SONS
BANKERS and
BROKERS
314 Rober. ST. 81. Pan,
3I4 Rober, s..
COTTON

! ton Of many inquiring friends publish
dressed to me by gentleman in the South
critfcising my recent publicly expressed
change of opinion in regard to the market.
daY may Sa aot 'h Iaad tne Lev OF to
ton Of substantially lower prices for cot
ton during the period when receipts are
n likely to be heaviest and I think that
dispose of within the next two months
VIII do wisely to accept current quota
NEW YORK, Sept. 8. 1so4.ADear Sir:
I reply particularly to your letter, re-
ce1Ved today, in which you suggest that
my recent change of front in regard to
ket will deprive me of all following and
any capacity of market leadership in
future. In reply thereto 1 beg to say,
market leadership, and think it a detri-
ment other than an advantage so far as
1t aIects SPECTATORS money-making
| responsibility for other peoples transac-
tions and renders it difficult for him to
hquldate his own. Sc far as my change
you Emersons trite remark, that Con
Sistency is a weakness of the narrow
minded and tell you with Josh Bill
iii n that at, "A wise man changes his opin.
to change my opinions without. however,
arrosating to myself by implication even,
IL. i
sometimes see that other people are wis
er than 1 that change my opinions.
Two Glasses of Facts
To my thinking, there are two classes
of facts which the Spectator in cotton
or In anything else must be constantly
cal, which may be subdivided into facts
absolute and facts deductive The other
though exceedingly elusive, are quite as
important as mathema teal certainties in
dealing with an article in which the spec
ulatiye public is as enormous as that at
present trading in cotton. You must bear
in mind that there are propably not less
than 10000 people actively Interested in
the. cotton market at all times. and in
periods of great activity this number is
largely increased, If each of these per-
sons buys or sells only 100 bales, the
demand for or supply Of contracts thus
million bales of cotton and is a force that
is simply Overwhelming in it's preponder-
a an Once set in action by any, leader.
1t generally goes to excess that over
Whelms him and carries him and his fol-
lowing to disaster, as witness the Sully
debacle of last spring. 1t becomes. there
anticipate correctly, If possible. the i'm
pulses which make or set in action this
Irresistible force of public speculation and
1t is equally, important that any tend
ency toward exaggerated opinion and
historical action shall be overcome. -
Gradually Declining Prices
IL was because saw. or thought I saw.
that great many people who had no pos
slDie use for cotton except to resell 1t at
at advance had bought it in the form of
contracts that I sold out my cotton on
Thursday morning last, and Immediately
thereafter advised the public of the fact
and 1t is because 1 now see, or think 1
see, that the government report, issued
on Friday, is certain to result In a re-
crudescence of the 1900, 900 bale talk
that am unwilling to buy cotton for an
advance until after some comparative de-
cline in the movement shall corroborata
the report of crop damage.
rms cannot possibly occur within the
next two months, and I therefore think
my expectation of gradually declining
prices for the next two months is sound.
You must bear in mind that the spinner
Is the final arbiter of cotton values. II
there were no spindies to use it, cotton
would not be worth anything however
small the crop. It was the withdrawal or
the spinner that punctured last wears
speculation. and in the face Of a report
from the government which so effectiyeIv
negatives Individual reports of cron
shortage, the spinner is not going to buv
cotton except at what he considers a rea-
sonable price.
Meantime. we are face to face with
probably the largest September and o.
tober receipts on record, and in my opfn-
ION the effect OF this movement, in COM
pination with a probably slack demand
from manufacturers, will create within
the next sixty days bearish sentiment
so strong that 1t would overwheln either
you or myself. shorld we attempt to op-
pose II. Theodore H Price