The San Francisco call., 1904-04-08
THE COFFEE MARKET.
lis Statistical Situation and Out
look.

The circular OF Henry NOrdlinger q No-s
New York says under date OF April j;
'Our market is slowly and gradually oeNel-
oping q healthier tone The highly specula-
tive element which has been such a disturb
ire factor IN the recent past has been entirely
eliminated. Nevertheless. confidence has not
beer quite fully restored as yet. II has been
kept in the background through manipulation
hy old experienced hands who have been max
ing supreme efforts 10 depress the market still
turtneri plt these eloIls nave .lol me- W.
success Ine market IS Nlrtoaly nnchahe 60
from a month ago. The steadier unoertone has
brought about some Improvement in the trade
demand Prices are certainly inviting. ana
when the pressure to keep the market down is
once removed We expect 10 see the legitimate
demand bros dening because the trade inland
is very poorly supplied.
we stated in our report Of the LIST ultmO
that the receipts at Rio and Santos for the
remainder of the crop year viii be about 90
per cent a. compared with last year. The
March receipts indicate the correctness Of our
calculation nasmuch they were less than
400 600 bags against so. 900 bags last year
The average consumption Of Brazil Coffee in
Europe and the United states. az this period
OF the year is about $4,000 bags per month
Last month only about 40o. GOO bags Rio and
santos Coffee. and about 10000 bags Victoria
ana bahla came into sight, therefore the Nisi-
bic supply Of Brazil Coffee must have de-
creased more than 100000 bags during that
month We have now before us three months
in which the receipts at Rio and Santos viii
- exceptionally small not more than about
100000 bags average per month, total OF
abOut 100000 bags total Brazilian receipts
100000 bags against requirements for con-
sumption Of about ?. s0ooo bags OF these kinds
during that period
''0f course the stocks Al Rio and Santos are
% be considered in this connection. These
stocks amount 70 about 1T5o.ooo bags but
judging by the way the Brazilian markets have
acted during the last two months having been
continually iec 10 1lsc a pound above our
parity. We must conclude that very little of
The stocks in Rio and Santos can be obtained
ny consuming markets unless buyers grant the
The visible supply in the United states
q 90 5srazi @ cotfee including ahoats. is about
-eg0opo baEE- on the surface this looks
f there was a big oversupply OF stocks in this
country, but when examine the character
and grade of same. we find that outside OF
The holdings ot the large roasting interests
the largest part consists OF such grades and
qualities which serve no other purpose than
Tor delivery against Coffee Exchange con
tracts The supply Of such grades as the
lraae requires. that Is. from 4s to s.. has be-
come reduced 20 such an extent as 10 be m
sufficient for usual requirements
GENERAL STATISTICAL POSITION.
ne receipts ~ milds IN Europe and the
Dn.teo states during the next three months
VIII probably amount TO about T. 400. 600 bags
of which only about $50 coo bags viii be
needed for consumption; 50 that the stocks OF
these in Europe and the United states VIII
most likely Increase about $50 600 bags dur
ing that period.
The genefal statistical position or coffee
viii undoubtedly show considerable i'm
provenent during the next three months and
we DO not hesitate 10 state that we believe
that there VIII be decrease in he visible
supply OF the world OF about j. $50 600 bags
during that period. We calculate the total
lHto-HikiiL movement OF all GOffeae during fhe
next three months At about , 100000 bags
while the usual requirements Of Eurone and
the United states during that period are about
a.f5o-ono BAGS fthe deliveries in Europe and the
United States during these three months last
year were 100000 bags. This in itself Is
az nrst importance. but when We consider that
the bulk OF the consumption (about T5 ner
cent? Is OF Brazil Coffee. the condition rresenfe
itself 20 US that In few months from now
such Brazil Coffees generally wanted
hv the trade viii be most difficult 10 obtain
Buying Of late has been OF good character
and IL appears that declines cannot be brought
about any more with the ease which accom-
panied such endeavors until short time apo
The confidence Of those who are interested on
the long side OF Coffee contracts is based mot
only on the prospective Improvement in the
STATISTICAL position within the next few months
but on the BELIEF In the continuation OF such
Improvement for a long time % come
The Rio and Santos crop on the trees nov
about being harvested is estimated al 10 OOO
600 10 10 500 600 bags. The 1904 8 recefufs ~
mild Coftees IN accordance with the best oh
talnab bic Information viii be 3 500 900 to
600 bags The coming crop Of Nictorfas
and Bahias IL estimated 500 600 bags
Therefore the estimates Of the worlds r,ro-
ouction for 19O4-5 aggregate ia 600 600 70 TX
coo bags which to supply a pros
pective consumption OF about I6 500 600 BAGS
We confess that crop estimates at this time OF
the wear are not a safe guide but we cannot
ignore them At the present time entirely be-
cause the indications are strongly pointing 10
much smaller crops than We have had in re-
cent years"