The Republican journal. [volume] (Belfast, Me.) 1829-current, 1904-11-24
LONG-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS

The weather since the Creators de-
cree after the deluge "while the earth
remaineth, the seedtime and harvest,
cold and heat, and summer and winter
and day and night shall not cease" has
been subject of perpetual interest. 1t
will ever remain so, for the vast agri-
cultural and other industries, the extern
sive commercial and marine interests,
and, in fact, the daily affairs of man are
so materially effected by the constantly
changing weather. Miscalculations with
regard to severe storms, to drOughts
and to great temperature changes, often
entail heavy losses. Since the weather
follows immutable laws which man
cannot change, and the manifold and
valuable interests of man require for
their successful prosecution a know
ledge of the weather now prevailing and
that which may be expected in the flu
ture, Congress, in February, 1870, enact
ed laws for the establishment of Ma
tional Weather Service. And to-day the
United States leads the world in practi-
cal meteorology. Its forecasts and
storm warnings are based on scientific
observation taken by trained and expe-
rienced observers and are the deductions
and opinions of able scientists and me-
teorologists, and are, therefore the best
obtainable. While the forecasts are
far from perfect and leaves much to be
desired. they are sufficiently accurate to
be of iucalculable value. With the ia
cilities at hand, and in the light of our
present knowledge of meteorology there
is nothing on which to base forecasts
for periods excepting two or three days.
And, while there is a great demand,
and much need of long range forecasts,
j. e., forecasts for a month or season,
the time is not yet at hand, the science
of the weather not sufficiently develop
ed, to render them possible. NotWlth-
standing these facts there are persons
who, realizing the urgent need of fore
casts for an extended period. take adj
vantage of the same, and it is not un-
common to read in some of the news
papers from time to time forecasts of
a great storm for mouth in advance,
and for the weather conditions of
whole season. Unfortunately casual
readers, and they are numerous, and
frequently the well-informed, attribute
these fake forecasts to the Weather
Bureau, as is well known by the ex-
perience of the officials at numerous
stations of the Bureau. The Nation
al Weather Service is thereby brought
into great diSrepute, and many persons
greatly Inconvenience and probably
subjected to monetary or other loss OF
much value.
With regard to the accuracy OF these
long range forecasts, the Chief of the
United States Weather Bureau has
stated, as follows:
LAS a result of my personal verltica-
ton of the work of long-r range weather
forecasters, some of whom have so far
gained the confidence of the rural press
as to receive liberal compensation for
their predictions, | am led to the con-
clusion that these forecasters knowing
ly perpetrate fraud and do positive in
jury to the public at large
The Government Weather Depart
ment has able men engaged in its work,
and as soon as forecasts and warnings
for more extended periods are possible,
and there is much to encourage hope
for improved service, the pupllc will
be duly informed and receive the ben
eft thereof. 1t is believed that the
public interests will be greatly sub
served if the foregoing facts were gen
orally known, and it is to be hoped that
the country, and particularly papers
published in the rural districts, Will
render the valuable aid that is within
their power by disseminating the IN
formation that the so-called long range
forecasts do not emanate from the
Weather Bureau and are wholly I'M
official J. W. SMITH,
District Forecaster, L. S. Weather
Bureau