New-York tribune., 1904-08-29
THE WEEK IN WALL STREET.

The trend OF prices IN the STOCK market is
ssiu upward. the majority of the active issues
having made substantial net gains in the last
week and the market having closed firm on
SATURDAY. although the volume of business has
shown no expansion. the daily sales of only two
OF the six days having aggregated more than
100000 shares. One factor which In preceding
weeks had made against stock market advance
was nlirlirnized last week-the crop scare" The
dire stories Of calamity to the spring wheat in
the American Northwest through rust and rain
have been found to be greatly exaggerated. 1t
is admitted in every well Informed quarter that
damage from rust has been suffered by the
growing crop but il IS now known that the loss
viii be small enough to give reasonable warrant
FOR the expectation of harvest of good aver
age proportions. Even more alarming than the
reports from Minnesota and the Dakotas were
those from experts" who had been spying out
the land in Manitoba and had apparently sur
veyed the wheat fields OF that fruitful territory
through blue goggles encircled by rust incrust-
ed rims. Failure Of the Manitoba crop would.
of course, diminish largely the total amount of
wheat available for European needs. the result
being TO enhance the value of such small sur
plus above domestic requirements as might be
produced in the United States But, unfortu-
nately for the wheat bulls. the stories Of calan-
itous deterioration in the condition Of wheat In
Manitoba promptly and vigorously denied
on authority SO trustworthy that the rumors
are now universally discredited. The crop ru-
NOR season is not yet over, for the coming few
weeks contain possibilities OF heavy loss to both
wheat and corn through frost; but the present
outlook is for a wheat harvest which. although
much short Of bumper" size, viii be large
enough supply domestic needs and I'll also
such export demand may develop at the
present high prices; and for corn crop Of
fully 2500000Oo0 bushels.
The quieting down of the excited grain specu-
lation has naturally made for the benefit of the
stock market. During the last week. however,
speculative activity has arisen In the cotton mar
ket prices Of the leading futures having been
forced up under bull manipulation. Reports from
the cotton belt have been issued portraying a bad
state Of affairs in many parts of the field. and
upon those reports have been predicated asser-
tions of cotton harvest much smaller than the
twelve million bales which a few weeks ago
seemed almost assured. These stories of crop
damage would seem TO need some corrobora-
tion, however.
The last week has witnessed the shipment Of
large sums Of cash from this city TO New-Or-
leans, 20 Chicago and TO Montreal. well
the expectation of 100000 in gold TO the Argen-
tine. II payment Of British obligations. and
S1.5O0000 Cuba The flow of money TO the
interior for crop moving purposes begins this
year unusually early. In 1903 the first ship
ment TO New-Orleans, for moving the cotton
crop, was made in the first week OF September;
and the demand from the West did not set IN
until late in that month The money market
here has been for many weeks exceedingly easy.
with loans offered at nominal rates: until now
the Associated Banks hold the huge sum Of
nearly S5S,0oo,000 IN excess OF the reserves re-
uuired by law to be maintained by them. The
surplus reserve at this time last year was only
SO, ,67S 900. The enormous surplus now held
here rather represents in large degree the funds
released through shrinkage IN business through
out the country and sent TO this city for employ
Inent than reserve holdings OF interior banks
Thus q considerable part OF the crop moving
requirements be financed by the banks OF
the interior, as in past years. the deficiency be-
ing met by the New-Yorx banks out Of their
surplus reserves. With very large corn crop
in sight a big cotton crop and an average wheat
crop the demands upon this centre for funds
will undoubtedly be heavy. those demands in
cIuding cash for moving the crops of the Domin-
ion; but in the opinion Of conservative fnanciers
there is likely TO be money squeeze this
fall as a result Of filling the demand for cash
with which TO harvest the crops The rates for
money may stfen little, but at least the banks
would rejoice at that and the business and spec
,llative community would not regard it as a
hardship
Railroad managers continue optimistic over
the outlook for fall traffic, and railroad gross
earnings maintained surprisingly well at
near the levels of better days. Reports TO
the mercantile agencies from all the
country show confidence is returning and that
trade conditions are improving. One of the chief
factors in the improvement is the mo-a promis-
ing outlook for the crops. and the fact that the
threatened general war in the steel industry has
not developed has also greatly strengthened the
hopeful feeling. The prevalence of strikes in
many industries and at so many points tends
90 unsettle the improving sentiment but no gen.
ersl contraction OF business and enforcement OF
the accompanying curtailment of working forces
and Of their pay We're ever accomplished without
resistance in the form of many strikes That
contraction has now been in progress for a good
many months. The end of the recent wonderful
business prosperity found the various Industries
OF the country n no such disastrous state of
oVerpToduction as has been the case at similar
periods In the past, and further guarantee that
me current depression would not be as severe or
last as long as its predecessors was the fact
that the business of the United States had =.
last been planted upon the mighty rock of the
gold standard 1t is the way of the stock mar
ket 10 discount the future. Stocks began their
last long decline months before Indications of
lessening business activity were discernfble to
me pubhcs eyes. The stock market has now
:or several months been advancing. and it would
nor be surprising If that phenomenon were
round 10 be the forerunner by not long snace
of tine c1 a countrywide quckening Of business
ACTIVITY ana entrance upon a cycle of prosperity
i1Ote pF1Ihent than has ever yet been enioved
" hHsSe United States. Two possible obstacles
There are: Disaster To the growing crons ga
SUCCESS o. the Democratic party in the election
Tor the Presidency. But every dav h,;rrs 49,.