Edgefield advertiser. [volume] (Edgefield, S.C.) 1836-current, 1904-11-16

thus it is that the beautiful and intri-
cate science of meteorology ana
weather forecasting has given rise to
its own peculiar parasites, host OF
long range weather forecasters, that
in a mysterious and wholly irrational
way claim to be able to foresee that
which patient, hard and intelligent
study of meterology by learned men
in all parts Of the world has not been
able TO do, and by them has been
declared impracticable.
1t is true that our own weather bu-
reau and the meteorological services
of other countries have demonstrated
the practicabiity of forecasting the
weather for from one. two or in very
favorable conditions three days in ad-
vance with reasonble accuracy, but
honest forecasters, with one accord,
deny the possibility Of forecasting the
weather for month or 4 season in
advance, and yet these charlatans,
fakes, OF what nots, who make fair
though fraudulent living by selling
such forecasts to the public, and,.
what is still more strange, reputable
papers, that ordinarily are not will
ing parties to any fraud, publish sucn
forecasts in their columns.
The desirability OF long range fore.
casts is admitted, their usefulness, il
they were possible cannot be sainsaid,
and thelr attempt is not deprecated.
On the contrary success is ardcntly
hoped for and encouraged on rational
grounds, but their practicability is, at
present wholly denied and can be
shown by any attempt however friend.
ly, TO verify them whenever made.
People who are familiar with meteor
ology know this, but the many nave
not studied the science, and influenced
by their desire for knowledge and mis-;
led oy the spurious though plausible
claim OF unprincipled long range fore
casters readily buy and believe the
goods to be genuine. Few test its
worth by actual verification, but cred.
ulously accept accidental agreement
between the forecasted weather and.
what actually occurred as convincing
proof, while tho failures that SO nu.
merously happen, if noted at all, are
charitably forgiven and forgotten. II
would indeed be strange if some OF
the long range forecasts did not
prove correct, for the chances are as
about one in five that they will, If or.
Ginary intelligence is exercised in
making them, and it is this probability
of chances that gives life to the long
range forccaster. But he has other
deceptive devices, such IS clothing
his forecasts in the most general and
indefinite language; he guards care
fully against any attempt to disprove
his forecasts and keeps open loop
hole for escape, and also stating thai
he has in mind some other section
Of the country where the forecasted
conditions did actually occur.
While mcteorology IA smade rap
i'd progress in the last fifty years, and
the fact has been amply demon strated
that the weather is governed by laws,
as certain in their operations as those
governing other phenomena of nature
yet it mas not advanced far enough
to enable the weather to be fore
casted for a season or even a month
in advance. The Weather Bureau
makes no claim to be able to make
correct forecasts for periods longer
than one. two or at longest three days,
and for the longest period there must
be very decided conditions, as shown
by the daily survey Of the atmosphere
by it's numerous trained and sklllful
observers. With all the skill and
training of the best talent available,
and with as conscientious effort as
true and honest men are capable OF;
mistakes do and will occurr.
Long and careful observation has
shown that weather changes are not
dependent on planetary influences.
Nor is weather forecasting matter
of inspiration. but ability to make re-
liable forecasts comes from hard
study, long training and intelligent OBJ
servation. 1t is absurd to believe that
when intelligent, scholarly men, who
have made meteorology a specially
the world over are in full accord in
their denial Of the practicability Of
making accurate long range forecasts.
that a man ignorant of the very laws
in which the forecasts are based and
relying on mystical, non-existing plan
etary influences, or on inspiration
which means nothing save all irration'
al mental condition. Should he able
to make them.
The Weather Bureau today is Civ.
ing the people the best service posi-
bic, but not content with the success
already attained, it has in the past,
and is now. studying every available
and suggested means IF improving
and extending the scope and ampll'
tude of its forecasts. for both short
and long periods, and should long
range forecasts ever become possible
it will be through such efforts and
not by the braggadocio methods OF
ignorant charlatans vino new occupy
the field with their long-range fore
casts.
Prof. Willis ]. Moore, who, as Chiet
Of htc Weather Bureau has had tc
Geal with this subject in beth an ADJ
ministratiye way and in IFS scientific
aspect, recently stated MS views OH
so.called long range forecasts in nc
uncertain language, and wholly 1r
condemnation In substance he sale
that it is The opinion OF the leading
mctcoroloeists OF The world that pub
lie interests are injured by the publ.
cation Of so.called long range weathel
forecasts, especially such predictions
as relate to severe storms, floods,
droughts, and other atmospheric phe-
nomena OF a dangerous and damaging
character, and the persistent erorts
Of certain men to foist their predlc-
tions on the public. for public gain,
has reached such proportions that 1t is
deemed advisable fairly and temper.
ately to counteract the influence OF
thoge whom We believe to be prey
ing on the creduility Of the public.
They may believe that they have dis
covered a physical law or meteoro,
logical principle that has not been re.
Yaalei 70 the astronomers. Meteoro.
lsg!ata or to puy other clasa OF aG!an-
tifa Investigators, hut the pHblseA.
tloR Qi pfaAletlpAa thk5 BY Faas3!s o.