The Montgomery advertiser., 1904-01-30
PLANT THE FOOD CROPS
FARMERS SHOULD NOT NEGLECT
 THE CEREALs,
Fear That Present High Prices of Staple Will Cause Planters to Fay Too Much Attention
 to Cotton.


 Baitiniore. Md. Jana zs.--(special. ,--Rs- !ts possible effect upon grain production tn the South if speculation becomes too tthh,mpans, th,n The Manufacturers Record Of "As recently pointed out in The Man. n.aeturers Record, the production of gran Tn the South last year was 7lS,OOo 0oO a usnes, @ @sgainst ss st So1,o oooo bushels in i?os. crease l8.00o0O bushels was corn. The lhcIease In the value of the three cereals, sesnn sSSrn; M Mwneat and oats, in 1908 was nearly important to emphasize these facts just at present In view of the danger that the nign price of cotton will so oncentrate o srovns as,snsiop ss or the tsymers upon cotton tsnuon to the importance of providing !neir foodstnffs first and making cotton sneF surplus or money crop. The pres prove great injury. rather than a bless ing, to the farmers if it should result in fneir s swing less attention to the diversi- ssvsra ue% aer,euitursi S development which for of the South. ,,. Last year the South had about .s.ooo,. ordinary conditions for the present. Had sne weather been propitious and the yield per acre equal to the average of the two about. 1i.oOO,00o bales. Had the Yield H psf nef acre been equal to the average for fine three years from le9s-99 to l9O0-0l the crop would have been about 12,5. .0OOO bales, and three years from 1ss5-s6 to Iss7.9s 1t would have been 100000 bales. The shortage in last years crop was due not to lack of acreage. but to the remarkabie weather conditions. beginning in the spring when continued cold, wet weather delayed planting throughout the South for over
 "yVith % ooa ooo acr.s ,,. o... it is possible with good weather condi- tions to produce certainly as high as I2- 000O.0 to l2.50o.000 bales, though there may pc some question whether that amount of Dor supply. We believe that the shortage of cotton throughout the world and the increased consumption make it exceeding the coming crop should be Ii 800 GOO to ls.. OO.O0O bales. and that even at that figure 1t should command somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 cents a pound, if not more; but if the season should open with large increase in acreage without re. gard to whether 1t could be properly cul- tivated and fully picked there might be prices down below fair level.
 The Manufacturers Record trusts that the South may never again have 10 face such low prices for cotton as those which prevailed during the period of extreme depression from 1891 to 1898. We believe that we have entered upon a period to run for several years of much higher range Of prices, but to make sure of this 1t Is essentially important that the South should raise its own food -stuffs that in- stead of lessening its attention to diversi- fled agriculture it should give still greater attention to corn and wheat and oats and other foodstuffs, and that then. and then only, should it make a gradual increase in cotton acreage, sufficient to. meet from year to year the rapidly-increasing con- sumptive wants of the world.
 Every man interested in the Souths prosperity, its bankers, its merchants, its manufacturers and it's leading farmers, should press the importance of this sub. 1ect upon the attention of the entire aR- ricultural community. Instead of being carried away by the speculation which Is now sweeping over the cotton world, ex- ceeding conservatism is demanded throughout the South When prices reach the present level the bulls and bears may well be left to fight out IS to whether prices will go higher or lower. They may go higher, but they may g lower and if they ever commence to drop it will likely be very rapid: The people at large can ulatlve craze. No greater misfortune could befall this section than wild spec ulation in cotton, with the inevitable col lapse which would certainly follow sooner or later. The injury would not simply be the financial losses which might come to many thousands, but such a speculative craze. whether profitab ble or unprof1taole, would disorganize business and make for a lack of stability, turning the attention of everybody to 'get-rich-quick' means rather than to the legitimate business in- terests of the country.
 The Manufacturers Record does not undertake to say whether cotton will go higher as the bull leaders claim. and claim. we believe. with thorough sheer fly, nor does it undertake to venture g. prediction as to whether prices will Ko much lower before the new crop; but 1t would remind its readers that history re- peats itself: Two or three years ago dur ing the wild speculation in New York there seemed to be no limit to the demand and to the advance in prices of stocks and bonds. Over and over again the statement was made that the country has grown so rich that the supply of securi- ties was inadequate to the demand, but there came a time when it was found that the supply of securities was in ex- cess of what the public wanted, and then came the great crash and the wiplng out of thousands of millions of paper profits and the destruction of many reputations. which ought to have taught a lesson to the whole country.
 "Even in the iron market, it was less than year ago when furnaces were crowded to their utmost capa city and we were making at the rate of IS, 900 tons of iron and importing at the rate of l, ,OOO,- 600 tons a year. There seemed to be no limit to the consumptive demand of the country. Pig was selling in Birmingham at SlS to $2O ton, and in some cases S22 to $3 ton, and buyers were scramblng for 1t. It is selling today at about S9.I to $10 ton, and though production throughout the country has been cut down almost 4O per cent, the supply still seems equal to present conSumptive require ments.
 Every boom in stocks, in iron, in real estate. which has ever swept over the country. has been followed by the natural swing Of the pendulum to depression and lower prices The history of every boom should prove warning to the South 10 beware of wild speculative boom in cotton. It is much better to have lost the chance of possible profits in cotton spec ulatlon and to have attended to legitimate business than to have run the risk of being swamped with debts by losses in cotton or any other speculative opera ton. Upon the bankers of the South will rest a great responsibility as to whether they encourage or discourage the present speculative operations, not only of cot ton people who are familiar with the ups and downs of the trade, but of the gem erai public. which, according to reports. IS being drawn into the maelstrom of speculation"