New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1904-11-05
FACTS rs, FANCIES.
Ho10 Parker and DaUis PerUert
Many Figures.
TFRoM THE TRIBUNE BUREAU

Washington Nov. 1.-The Treasury statement
for October gives little satisfaction to the Demo
cratic candidates for President and Vice-Presi-
dent, who have been assuring unsuspecting Dem
ocratic voters that the government is heading
toward bankruptcy "at the rate Of S140 100000
year" Both Judge Parker and ex-senator Davis
have within the last two weeks solennIy repeated
this ridiculous and unfounded statement. and
Judge Parker told one Of bis audiences the
other day that the outlook was probably even
worse since the administration was withhold
Ing all information showing how far the Treas
ury had recently been running behind. Taking
the deficit for July and Augustine first two
months Of the fiscal year-these Innocents
Abroad In finance have been multiplying thar
sum by six to find the prospective deficit foi
the full twelve months. As the deficit for July
and August was $23, 10000 the deficit for
the year, they argued. must be six times $685.
100000, something over S14O,O00,O0O" But
forecasting Treasury deficits and SURPRISES is
not mere process in simple arithmetic Ger
tainly the Parker-Davis method fails wholly
when applied to the problem. For. although by
its aid the Democratic candidates figure out a
deficit of $4S,000.OO0 for the four months end
ing October 81. the Treasury books show an
actual deficit for that period Of only SCI 900
100000 less than the net deficit on Au-
gust 30.
For October itself the Treasury's showing Is
most encouraging. For the first time in many
months Treasury operations indicate a gain
compared with the same period in 1903. July,
1904 ran nearly 100000 behind July. 1908.
August, 1904, ran more than S13OO0O0O behind
August 1908 September, 1904, ran 100000 be-
hind September, 1903 Now the tide seems to
have turned. For October 1904, shows a gain
Of 81 300 900 over October 1908. Last year the
October deficit was S5,242,9O6 This year it has
fallen to SO, 90, 391. Treasury receipts are in
creasing slightly all along the line and ex-
penditures are now running only a little be-
yond last years figures. Customs collections
rose from $50, $4,000 to $23, 4O5. 900. internal
revenue receipts were $21 095 900, against $19,-
92S. 900 last year, and miscellaneous receipts
were 81 4S9. 900, against So $780, 900. The govern
ment's net gain in income was over 81 100000
To offset this advance in receipts expenditures
increased about $500, 900. But compared with
July and August the improvement in general
conditions Is most decisive and most crafty
ing.
II the present turn for the better continues
the heavy deficit for July and August will be
greatly reduced by January l. Last year No
vember and December together showed a sur
plus of S7,T50OOO. Unless conditions change.
q surplus Of from 100000 to Sc, 900, 900 will
be accumulated between now and January l.
The net deficit for the first half of the fiscal
year will then fall to S12O00O00 or S13,000.OO0
instead of standing Judge Parker and ex-
Senator Davis have been saying it ought TO
stand and would stand, at about S72OOOO0O
But SO 1-3 seems 10 be only about the normal
Of error in the methods OF state
ment and deduction Just now affected by the |
two Democratic national candidates.