The Topeka state journal. [volume] (Topeka, Kansas) 1892-1980, 1904-11-05
AS TO new YORK.
Walter Wellman Reports Sit
uation as He Sees 1t.
Expects a Roosevelt Plurality
of About $4,000.
A TOTAL OF 1.625,OOO.
Says Odell Knows But Will Give
Out No Figures.
Regards Democrat Claims on
A TOTAL OF 1,625,OOO.
Regards Democrat Claims on
City as Exaggerated.

The political situation in New York
is set forth in the Chicago Record
Herald by Walter Wellman as follows:
More than 10000 votes will be
cast in this state on Tuesday. Prob
ably the total will run to 1925, 600
Almost exactly two-tifths of these, or
$4,000, will be polled in Greater New
York, and three-fifths, or $4,000, up
the state. or, strictly speaking, out
side the city limits, for there are TWO
Long Island counties, Suffolk and Mas
Sau, below the Bronx.
The city, home of President Roose-
welt, is heavily Democratic, while the
upstate home of Judge Parker is
overwhelmingly Republican 1t is a
battle of city against country on the
political rush line, and the country
team has the advantage of being 30
per cent heavier than its adversary
Four years ago the city gave Bryan
a plurality of over 5000, and this
was overwhelmed by a Mckinley plu-
the city will give Parker a plurality
ranging from 100000 to 10000 All
the indications are that the country
will be able to dispose of this with a
margin of about $4,000 to spare. One
may say a plurality of $4,000 is pretty
small in a total vote of 1,625,000- 1t
is. But if any dependence is to be
placed upon the methods which we
the probable vote of q state-and eX-
perience shows that there is-then the
outcome is foreshadowed by the re-
ports and conditions. In saying that
the plurality is likely to be $4,000,
that figure is of course. used to desig-
nate the N lean of probabilities. He
would be a rash man who thought
himself wise enough to sit down and
plurality to emerge from a million
and half of ballots.
After all, the important-the all
mportant-question is whether Roose-
welt or Parker is to carry the state. If
the president carries it he cannot be
defeated. If Parker carries it he may
possibly be elected.
OF all the political leaders in New
York the one who knows best how the
battle is going, both in city and coun-
try, is Governor-Chairman Odell- Be
sides being a master party organizer, !
he has better sources of information
than any other man in the state. /,
David b. Hill knows the upstate |
pretty we'll. Murphy and McCarren /
know the city Odell knows them /
both. He has his finger on every
county, every assembly district, every
voting precinct, metropolitan or rural
He issues his orders to his lieutenants
number of votes, and holds them to a |
rigid accountability in carrying out |
their assignment.
1--WE are going to carry the state" |
almost logged way. He declines at I
this time to discuss figures, for rea-
sons best known to himself. But the /
men who work with him, who have
gone through many political battles
with him, do not for a minute doubt /
that he knows what he is talking |
about, and that he will make his word |
good. He is not guessing. He knows, {
as far as it is possible for anyone to |
know.
Governor Odeu scouts the idea that
the Democrats can get 100000 to I
1 1000 for Parker in New York city (
1t is within my knowledge that he has
to Chairman CorteIyou that
] 100000 is the utmost they can do, in
his opinion. The governor believes his
machine in the city is now good fort
$4,000 more votes on the organization
side of the question alone than it was
two years ago, when COler beat him
$500 in the city. 1--WE had no or
ganization here Them says the COVER
nor. eve have one now
Reports from the upstate region
are to this effect: In some counties
the Republicans feel sure of getting
even larger pluralities than Mckinley
counties they will fall slightly behind
the Mckinley vote. In two or three
they expect to lose somewhat
heavily, and their net loss compared
with four years ago will be found
chiefly in those few counties. Nearly
every county will show an increase
over the Oden vote of 1902. when his
upstate plurality was 1926 Two
years ago many thousands of Repub-
leans did not go to the polls. Analysis
of the figures shows that the light vote
of that year was nearly all in the
heavy Republican counties. This year
an unusually large vote is expected all
through the state. The Republicans
have the machinery to get their votes
to the polls and are preparing to use
it to the utmost. There are counties
like Onondaga, st. Lawrence and I
in which they count on
an increase of 1000 or 1900 per coun-
ty over OdelPS vote in 1902.
The Democratic organization up
state is strong in some counties and
amentably weak IN others 1t is i'm
possible to build up an effective organ
zation in two months, particularly in
the heavy Republican counties, where
the Democrats never get a chance at
any of the local offices. The RepubIi-
can organization is strong in every
election district.
There is no reason to doubt the abil-
|