Heppner gazette. [volume] (Heppner, Morrow County, Or.) 1892-1912, 1904-06-23
The 1904 Wheat Crop.

The statstican of the New York Pro-
duce Exchange has made a calculation
based on Government acreage and per-
centage figures by which he places the
indicated wheat yield OF the United
States for 1904 at 657, 100000 bushels,
compared with approximately G37 ,0O0,-
0OO bushels last year. The accuracy of
the estimate on the 1904 yield is depend.
ent on continuation of present weather
conditions. The Winter wheat is prac-
tically safe in a large portion of the
United States, but Spring wheat will for
several weeks be at the mercy of the ele-
ments, the Hessian fly and the chinch
bug. Assuming, however that there
will be no deterioration between now
and completion Of the Spring wheat har-
vest the figures reflect a much stronger
position than is indicated by the course
of the wheat market at the present
time.
From last years yield of $4,000, 900
bushels, the United States has found
good market at home for all of the offer
ings except approximately 120,000,000
bushels, which were sent foreign as
wheat and -four. 1t is, of course, mpos-
sible to estimate accurately the amount
of last years crop that now constitutes
what is known as the invisible supply,
but the official Visible Supply has de-
creased to 1S.47S,0 ZOO, the smallest figure
reached in nearly ten years, being over
a million bushels less than in the famous
Letter year, when short supplies were
the basis of the boom. 1t is apparent
fr ON these figures that there has been
rem arkable increase in home consump-
tion of wheat. This assumption is part
ly affirmed by a comparison of the 1903
crop with the size and distribution OF its
immediate predecessor. The official re-
turns place the dimensions of the 1902
crop at go 900, 900 bushels, and yet with
a lower scale Of prices at home we ex.
ported from that crop 204 900 600 bush
els, or nearly s., 100000 bushels more
than we have exported from the 1908
crop.
Calculating from the distribution of
the 1902 crop, a yield of 637 900, 900 bush
els, with no increased demand at home,
would have decreased the exportable
surplus only 33, 100000 bushels. Instead
of this amount, the decrease IN exports
has been $4,000, 900 bushels greater than
the decrease in the crop, and the Visible
Supply last Monday was l 100000 bush
els smaller than on the corresponding
date a year ago. Making an allowance
for record-breaking increase, 1t is alb
surd to suppose that the American de-
mand for home consumption was so ,0O0-
900 bushels greater than in 1902. Ac-
cordingy we must accept one of two
theories regarding the disposition or dis
appearance of such large amount.
Either the Government figures of 637,-
900 900 bushels were too much, or there
are much larger stocks in farmers hands
than they are credited with holding.
Either contingency would not materially
change the amount of increase shown by
Statistician Browns figure s, and regard
less OF what the true dimensions of last
years crop were, 20, ,O0O, 600 bushel in
crease could probably be taken care OF
without seriously affecting prices, unless
the rest of the world produces such Won
derful crops that Europe Will have no
need for even so small surplus as we
gave her last year.
Perhaps the most gratifying feature OF