The Hawaiian gazette., 1904-06-10
THE DEMOCRATIC OUTLOOK.

| A very careful watch is being kept
on the trend of the Democratic conven-
tions over the country to ascertain
who will be the probable nominee.
| Only about one-half of the Democratic
conventions have been held to date
| and the opposition to Judge Parker
seem to think his nomination by no
means as certain as 1t seemed to be
three weeks ago. The element of doubt
rests largely in the refusal of many
States to instruct their delegates for
him but it should be remembered at the
same time that 1t has not been the
practice of most of the Southern States
to instruct their delegates to conven-
tions The Southern Democrats are in
clined to be conservative in party prac-
tices and they do not like to set new
precedents that may rise up hereafter
to trouble them. The same opinion Is
entertained by Republicans in many
States.
Careful observers still think that the
nomination of Parker is all but cer-
tain, in spite of the opposition talk.
The Democratic conventions will be
held in considerable number during
June and there is just enough of an ele-
ment of doubt in the situation to give
intense interest to the developments
If there were any other man who could
be as available and as acceptable to
the two wings of the party as Judge
Parker and at the same time as ac-
ceptable to New York, he might beat the
Judge from Esopus. But no one has yet
been able to find that man.
The veteran politicians who come here
f,.s,,, oil 90 ~.
private conversations say that it is al
most to a certainty going to be fearful
campaign. The Democrats are still a
little troubled about the factional quar-
rel in New York but great pressure will
be brought to bear for the leaders in
that quarrel to settle up and call it
square for a while till the election is
over. In Illinois there is also a bit
ter factional fight among the Demo-
Gratis but it is known that the probabili-
ties are that the olive branch will be
accepted by all concerned before the
campaign is on in full force OF course,
If the New York Democrats insist on
fighting to the last ditch the party all
over the country will have to give up in
despair for unless there is united effort
in New York the Democrats haven't
even forlorn hope to lead this year.
If they lose New York, as good observ-
ers here expect they will, there is not
ghost of a show of their beating
Roosevelt.
The Democrats have already begun
their Congressional campaign by select
ing headquarters here and beginning to
organize. They have Stunned engaging
any of the old Congressional headauar-
ters of the last ten years from which
unsuccessful campaigns have been con-
Quoted. Instead of that they have rent
ed headquarters in the Riggs House.
which has windows overlooking the
Treasury and within sight of the White
House. Considerable talk is heard now
and then all but Democrats carrying the
next House of Representatives, though
President Roosevelt should be elected.
That is a possibility but not probable.
For over forty years the House of Rep
resentatives has, with one exception,
gone with the party that won the Pres
idency in Presidential years. The ex-
ception was in 1876 when Mr. Hayes
was made President. All things con-
sidered the House is even more certain
to remain Republican than the Pres
idency and thus it will be seen the GER
tainty is strong.
ERNEST G. WALKER.