The Manning times. [volume] (Manning, Clarendon County, S.C.) 1884-current, 1904-12-21
WORTH TEN CENTS.
Frank B. Hay1e Talks Abort Cotton.

49, WV
estimating the crop Of cotton for
the current season to be $780,
900 bales, is too large by far, and
this he follows up by declaring
that granting the accuracy OF
the government report, the logic
of the market is at fault in fore
inc Z 1-2 cents as the legitimate
valuation of the staple when it
should still be ten cents. Mr..
Hayne says, in his published in
terview. that he believes the
estimate Of Theodore Il. Price
11,121.O0O bales, will be nearer
the-actual figures Of the years
crop than the government report.
The prominent cotton operator
analyzes the cotton situation at
length, and announces as his con-
clusion that the staple, even on
a basis Of a II, 100000 bale crop,
should bring nearer 10 cents per
pound than ! 1-2 cents. In con-
clusion he urges the cotton plant
ers to hold their cotton, and to
force the purchase of therem
inc portion of the crop at a
figure representing the actual
worth of the staple.
::In response to your request
to give you my views regarding
the cotton situation, and what is
the best course for the south to
pursue in marketing the remain
der of this crop, I will state first,
the south should bear in mind
that it is possible the govern
ment has overestimated the crop.
An error Of only 5 per cent would
make a difference of nearly $50, :
900 bales in the size of the crop,
and as the bureaus estimate,
after all, is simply a consolida-
ton of the guesses Of their varl-
Gus correspondents. 5 per cent
mistake is by means an lmpossl-
bility. It seems strange that all
of the cotton exchanges Of the
country, whose members are
practically of everybody who
sells and buys the crop, should
uniformly have estimated same
so far below the bureaus figures.
The estimate Of your paper was
the nearest approach to the gov
ernment's estimate, and you Ger;
eG-eHS CO.. error in your returns
would be by no means improb-
able. Personally, confess that
I can not believe that a crop
practically picked and ginned by
December 1 can have reached
these figures.
"a few days before the last
ginners' report came out. Theo-
dore II. Price stated that if the
figures showed 100000 bales OF
cotton had been ginned, it would
indicate a crop of 100000
bales, as he had received advices
from thousands Of reliable cor
respondents throughout the en-
tire south that whatever amount
had been ginned up to the mid
die of November would be- So per
cent of the crop. AS the glnners
report showed e,7S5,000 bales
of cotton, had been ginned, the
crop thus indicated would be
II, ,l2l, 900 bales. For myself I
can not help but believe that this
estimate of Theodore II. Prices
correspondents will be nearer
the mark than either that of the
bureau or Of your esteemed pa.
per.
':But never mind what the size
Of the crop is, for some time to
come the world in general will
believe the bureau estimate IS
correct. The question therefore
is: If the crop is 1000, 900 bales,
what should be the legitimate
price for what remains unsold?
think everybody will acknowl-
edge that if last years crop and
this years had both been H.
100000, 10 cents for either year
would have been considered the
minimum price for cotton. l
therefore can not believe that
the unequal distribution of 10,-
OO0,00 last year and $4,000, 900
this year should mean that cot
ton now should only be worth
seven and a half cents. It is my
opinion the governments report
was so much larger than expect
ed that the trade is demoralized
at present: but in a short time
the facts of the case will be real
lied, and cotton will regain its
legitimate value.
"A great many of the south
ern newspapers seem to think
that while this low price for cot
ton is a misfortune to the plant
er. it means enormous prosper
ity to the spinner. I think this
is a mistake, and that the ma
iority Of spinners, not only IN
America but in the balance of
the world, would much prefer
that cotton should not have de-
clined as much as it has. Last
summer, when cotton had de-
clined from Is cents to 10 cents.
every speculator and every pro-
Gucer Of cotton was bearish,
everybody was selling the fall
months around nine and a hail