The Montgomery advertiser., 1904-10-12
INDIANA REPUBLIC N.
waite- Wellman Thinks the State VIII
 Go Against Parker. Indianannlis Snecial to Chicago RecOrd.

Waife- Wellman Thinks the State VIII
 Go Against Parker.
 Indianapolis Special to Chicago Record
 Herald.
 It Is easy to understand why this State is for Roosevelt by g plurality ranging somewhere between 15,000 and 10000. To begin with, Indiana IS Republican State. When conditions are brought out on each side there Is clear preponderance of Republican votes. Probably if every man in the State who ever voted the Democratic Roosevelt would still pull out with a
 But all the men who ever voted A Democratic ticket are not going to do almost ever man who. ever regarded himself a Republican Is. a Republican row. Hence the whole thing is plain To start with, Republican State. Add can't quite poll their full strength for Parker, and that the Republicans are squarely in line, except for a handful-- a few hundreds at most-and 1t will be seen that it is only question of the size of the plurality How large or how small this plurality is to be is a matter of little importance. Twenty thousand is an intelligent guess, with the tendency to run higher than that figure than lower.
 It is twelve years since Indiana wont Democratic. In 1892 Cleveland carried the State by 1000. Since. then the Re- publieans. have won by from lSOOO to 55, 900. Mckinley had the former pre- ponderance in 1896. In 1900 his ad- vantage was 26o00 Two years ago in State election the Republicans had 35.000 to the good. Indiana Is State in which party lines are closely drawn and party spirit usually runs high. Changes from year to year are trifing. Men stick pretty close to their party allegiance. When through growth or general trend one party gains de- cided advantage. and this advantage has been shown in a series of elections indicating that 1t Is relatively a per manent condition. extraordinary causes must be at work to produce a revolu ton. There must be an unheaval of some sort to upset the established pre- ponderance. Such established prepon- derance the Republicans now have in Indiana. Not only have they carried the State every year since 1892, but every year they have had an actual majority of all the votes cast-a pre-. ponderance over the Democratic vote and all the minor party votes combined something that never happened tu either party in the era when this was really doubtful State. going first this year and then that. by slender plu- ralties merely. as in the elections be- tween 1872 and 1896.
 well, there are no indications what ever of an upheaval this year-no causes of revolution at work. Broadl 7 speaking, the electorate are in state of rest Ninety-nine voters out of q hundred are simply standing pat. Some | small influences are at work among the one out of every hundred making so "tri1ing changes among say from 5000 to 10000 of the 100000 voters in the State. If all of these influences. without exception. were operating on the Parker side. then indeed Indiana | would be "close. "actually doubtful. but l with the probabilities still in favor of Roosevelt's pulling through.
 But these small shifting currents are not all in Parker's favor. Tn fact. the l most important of them are against him, as shall presently point cut. Tha net balance is surely in Roosevelt s 1 favor-so much SO that if one were td trust wholly and feariessly to his analv
 sis and the logic of his observations he would be inclined to forecast q larger Republican plurality than Me Kinley had in 1900, rather than a small CT one.
 Indiana has been slowly Republican, fixed. Growth of manufacturing in the cities and in the gas belt did its part