The indicator., 1904-11-26
} LETTERS AND OPINIONS

4
Apropos of the tendency of the
volunteer prognosticators to forecast
weather conditions by crude observa-
tions such as bark on the trees, musk
rat houses, the flight of will geese,
the thickness of husks on corn, the
peculiar gathering of clouds, sunsets
and hundred other signs so familiar
to the rural sharps. Agent J. P.
Slaughter of the local weather bureau
writes us letter in which he gives
some highly interesting information
concerning the methods employed by
the government bureau in forecasting
weather conditions on a scientific
principle.
The old fashioned weather guessers
will not yet give up their methods,
and, indeed, in measure. they cal
culate sometimes along the lines of
the government agents. And now
since the government has its say, we
expect to see the "long-rangers' de-
fend their side of the QUESTION.
The letter from Mr.. Slaughter fol-
lows:
Editor Indicator
LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS.
while weather lore is probably as
old as the human race, the scientific
investigation of the causation of
weather changes is, relatively speak
ing, of such recent date that a very
large percentage of the people are
unfamiliar with the laws governing
the origin, development and move
mert Of storms and do not understand
the limitations, within which it is pos
sible to foretell approaching weather
changes.
1T is the universal opinion of the
scientific world that to foretell the
occurrence of abnormal weather con-
ditions, a month or a SEASON in ad-
vance, is, with our present knowledge
of atmospheric physics. an impossible
ity, and that belief in the vagaaies of
the weather prophet, or the planetary
forecaster, especially such predictions
as relate to severe storms, floods, and
other phenomena Of violent and de-
structive character, must result in
injury to agricultural, marine, and
other industrial interests.
"Some of these men may be sincere,
may believe that they have discovered
q physical law not known to meteor
ologlsts or astronomers, but the pub
LEGATION, for personal gain. of preiic-
tions that have no verification in fact,
must reflect upon the hoaesty of
their purpose.
"The so-called long-rangs forecast
ers base their predictions upon re-
lation, which they claim exists, be-
tween the weather of the earth and
the relative position Of the planets.
the phase or position of the moon, the
variation in sun-spots, etc.
"The occasional accidental coinci-
dence in time of occurance of storms
with certain relative positions of the
planets, however satisfactory and CON-
vincing to themselves, is not accepted
by reputable authorities on Meteor
ology and Astronomy, as proof that
such relation exists; nor can the oc-
currence of storm anywhere within
the broad era of continent. on or
near the date for which they have
predicted storm, be construed as
proof that there is any scientific mer-
it or practical value in their system
of predictions.
Astronomy is an exact science.
The relative positions of the planets
and the phase and position of the
moon can be fixed absolutely for any
given time, year or hundred years
ago, and for any period in the future
Now, it is a we'll established principle
that like causes produce like results;
if therefore, the weather of the earth
is controlled by the planets or moon,
there should be no difficulty, with
authentic records covering long peri
DDS of time, in establishing tbs rela.
tion between the two: these records
should show regular recurrence of
similar weather conditions, corre-
spending with the return of similar
relative positions Of the planets,
phase and position of the moon.
"If the painstaking research OF
earnest students Of Meteorology has
not established such relation, it is
safe to say that it has not been re-
vealed to the modern weather prophet,
who, for pecuniary gain, is preying
upon the credulity of his adherants.
Laying aside the abeence of scien-
tiic basis, the predictions Of these
men are 80 indefinite, both as to time