The Saint Paul globe., 1904-06-13


Parker may be tabulated therefore, as
follows:
Alabama .22INew Jersey. ..... a
Florida .......... 7lSouth Carolina. Is
kansas .......... 6lVirginia .........,24
New Hampshire s Total ...... .1S5
Where Parker Is Weak
Putting these two tables together one
arrives at a total of 307 votes for Parker
which probably is the minimum of his
claims to the votes of delegates already.
| elected. He has SO nearly one third of
the convention already that he would be
| able to block the nomination of any other
candidate if he could hold his votes to-
could not do, because he has no great
personal following and is being supported
ability alone He will have almost Ger
| tainly a majority of the votes on the first
| ballot at st. Louis, as things look now,
but the Parker strength would melt rap
| idly in the face of a stampede. The re-
moteness of such a contingency. however,
| lies in the fact that the Democratic party
has no one today who seems at all like
| ly to stampede any convention.
1t is quite evident from reports from
! state conventions that the Hearst strength
reached its climax some time ago. With
in the last two weeks he has gained only
eighteen instructed votes, from Wyoming,
Idaho and Hawaii
What Hearst Can Count On
Inc eQltOfS certain SLf6nSln Oh the
| first ballot can therefore be predicted
as follows:
| Arizona .......... 6lRhode Island -. s
California ....... .201South Dakota So. s
Hawaii .......... 6lWyoming ......... 6
iowa .............26l Total ...sss...Sz
| New Mexico -. 6
| There is small bunch of probable
/ Hearst delegates elected during the last
| week. although in each case there is some
4 0OIht about the natter CO}Orad dO elected
| a delegation pledged to the Kansas City
| platform but two district delegates were
! Instructed for Hearst. The editor prob
| ably has three Of the delegates elected
| by primary system in Maine, the other
nine being classed as doubtful. In Utah
no definite action was taken regarding
anxious to avoid a row over the polygamy
| question. Two of the six delegates from
| that state are for Hearst, although not
| instructed. He claims the delegation
! from Washington because the convention
| indorsed him. The Kansas battle was
drawn one. and there were no instructions
| although the Hearst men had majority
| of the delegates elected.
Whether they can hold that majority is
another question, but l have credited a
maximum of fourteen votes to Hearst
] out of twenty from Kansas, thus COM
| pleting the table as follows:
Colorado ......... 2IOregon ........... 9
| Florida .......... utah ............. 2
Kansas ......... IA Washington ...... 10
/ Ad4nO
montana ......... IOtaI ...s.'..o .o4
Nevada ........s., s
Adding these preferences to the in
! Structed votes the Hearst total mounts
up to LAG, which is almost certain to be
! the maximum, because uninStructed dele
| gates always drop off from certain
! loser and hasten to ally themselves with
| the winning side. 1t seems entirely prob
able, therefore, that, even allowing for
| Hearst instructions in Illinois with the
large increase of fifty-four votes thereby
| the total strength Of the editor in the
| st. Louis convention will fall little be-
/! low 200, which was the maximum l fixed
| about two weeks ago.
FavorIte Son Vote Important
| There has been considerable doing in the
way of solidifying delegations for favor
/ ite sons, and these votes must be taken
into consideration in forecasting the re-
| suits of the first ballot at St. Louis 1t
| is g notable thing that in each case the
| favOrite son comes from a state which is
unquestionably hostile to Hearst, and in
J each case with the possible exception of
/ German in Maryland, the faVorite son
| dodge was worked for the express pur-
pose of killing off the Hearst movement
most effectually. Delaware is now in
| structed for Gray Massachusetts, for Oh
ney, and Wisconsin for Wall. German
of course, controls Maryland absolutely
but instructions were withheld at his own
request. Ohio is to act as unit, and, in
asmuch as Judge Harmon, one of Cleve-
lands cabinet officers. was indorsed by
/ Tic COuN61llOI, IL is assumed the vote
/ of the state will be cast for him on the
first ballot.
Hearst claims two or three votes in
| Massachusetts because of an irformality
| in the application of the unit rule, and
the same claim is made regarding Ohio,
but it is not believed the national con-
| vention will go behind the returns suffi-
| GENTLY to inquire into the mode of ap-
plying the unit rule, because its appli
| cation is so well established by Demo-
cratic doctrine.
The favorite son group Of states may
/ be thus defined:
Delaware Gray ...................... 6
| Maryland (Gorman) Observation-Disclosures. 16
| Massachusetts, (Olney) ey)...............,. 80
| Ohio (Harmon) Observation-Disclosures. As
I Wisconsin -(Wal). .................... 70
1otal .................... .126
This leaves scattering delegates from
seven states and two territories which
cannot be put safely in any Of the above
/ groupings.
There are half dozen delegates from
L C01~