The Montgomery advertiser., 1904-08-23

csding periods and estimating the In.
creasing necessities Of the world.
From careful study Of statidtics
and conservative estimate Of expan-
sion In consumption. II 10 my opinion
that 10 cents per pound 10 the minimum
price the South should make up it, mind
to take for its cotton year in and year
out 90 long az II holds . virtual mos
nopoly in cotton production. That this
can be done by a comprehensive ware
house system and an abatement Of ex-
listing evils in handling. 10 admitted By
all business men and bankers who have
given to this subject their honest.
earnest thought" u
In view Of the almost absolute accu-
racy of Colonel Morse's estimates Of
last years crop and Of those Of the
three preceding years. he was asked TO
give his views as to the crop now about
to be harvested.
1T Is too early" he replied. FOR
anyone to form a definite opinion. Any
estimate made now must necessarily
be based on Impressions rather than
upon opinions, though there are sew.
eral conditions surrounding the grow
ing crop which have already become
clearly apparent to all careful observ-
ers. Notable among these Is the grad
ual deterioration in soil. the apparent
degeneracy Of seed virility and the in
creasing exhaustion of efficient farm
labor.
Making the most moderate allow
anco for the consequences Of these
three elements of contraction, and
calculation, a crop of eleven and one
quarter million bales is the maximum
to be expected. How far this maximum
may be reduced by unreasonable wealth
err, early frosts apd the increasing dep
relations of the boil weevil and other
insect enemies, it is as yet impossible
to foretell.
But. for the sake Of argument. let
US figure on the possible maximum not
only for this season, but for the next
two or three years. 1t Is my conten-
ton that, by virtue Of a constant ex-
pansion in the worlds requirements
and the fact that there is no substi-
tute for cotton, and in view Of the en-
croachment on manufactured reserves
due to recent short crops and the ex-
haustion of reserve raw material, II
would take every one OF these eleven
and one-quarter million bales. q. e..
the maximum CROP for at least three
seasons to restore normal parity
in the relation between raw material
and manufactured
I'm support OF this contention ! may
quote from the first of a series Of ar
ticles on the cotton requirements of
Great Britain now being published ST.
multaneously in The New York Times
and In The London Times the follow
ing paragraph:
"First-Stated in a single sentence.
the present position amounts to this:
The worlds supply Of cotton Is no iongs
a. equal to the worlds demand.
"Second-The estimated yearly in
crease In the demand Is put at from
400. 900 to 100000 bales. and not only Is
the present production inadequate, but
In another ten years an additional s.
600, 900 bales may be required. Lanca-
shires shortage for the last year or
two may be put at 1000. 900 bales
For the foregoing reasons. coupled
with the fact that the South Is in a
position Of greater independence than
heretofore for the exercise of a sound
discretion in marketing the coming
crop, with means at hand for holding
whatever cotton II may be considered
desirable to keep of the market. my
deliberate conclusion Is that the South
is abundantly able and ought to fix as
the minimum price for the first move
ment of this seasons cotton 10 cents
a pound.
by doing this our planters, mer-
chants and bankers will be in a posi-
ton to get the benefit Of any rise due
to climatic or other conditions which
may be developed while the crop Is be-
ing picked"