New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1904-07-10
LONG RANCE WEATHER FORECASTS.

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LONG RANCE WEATHER FORECASTS.
The prophets who profess to believe that vari-
atoms in temperature and precipitation are due
tc movements of the planets have come TO
grief out in California. According 10 the most
recent issue of The United States Monthly
Weather Review" they promised the farmers
an abundance of rain last winter, but their
hopes were not realized in the southern part OF
the State There is no reason 10 imagine that
the authors of these fallacious assurances are
particularly detected the result, but the
failure Of the prediction is influencing public
opinion IN a wholesome manner RemarkinS
upon the disappointment. The San Diego
Times says: I'VE thrown again upon the
Weather Bureau. with added experiences in
''discounting oldtime signs as interpreted by
that wonderful array of weatherwise men
"who annually find their way into print TO
demonstrate what they cannot predict about
the weather"
The methods OF the planetary forecasters-
those of them who are honest at least-are de-
fective in several ways. They seldom sit down
year after their predictions have beer issued
and make rigid comparison between the prom
Use and the actual facts. Such proceeding
would be instructive in the extreme though
highly discouraging. They also neglect 10
formulate any system OF mechanism whereby
the planets can do the work imputed TO them.
They usually exhibit n singular ignorance OF
well established and fundamental laws. One
of these men, for instance, mentions in Il lei
ter to the Weather Bureau the unusual prey
alence Of easterly winds in Southern Cali
forna last winter. and thinks that they were
the result Of some magical celestial inliu-
euce There is n much more simple way to
count for them. Observation at government
stations shows that there was an unusually
high atmospheric pressure in the centre OF the
continent for several months beginning with
November, and deficiency along the Pacific
Coast Now, the air always flows from high
area toward a low one. and the velocity is pro-
portional TO the gradient" The latter having
been sleeper than is common, the movement
should have been more vigorous than ordinary.
The abnormal prevalence OF easterly winds
and the deficiency In precipitation In the vicin-
ity of San Diego and Los Angeles. therefore,
We're closely related TO the severity OF the win
ter in the eastern half OF the country, which
was due primarily to differences In pressure
between the heart of the continent ard the At
lantic Coast.
one Of the most important advances made In
meteorOlogy in the last few years is the revela-
ton that simultaneous changes occur in press
Ure in widely separated regions. In recent
number of Mature" w. J. S. LOckyer gave
striking illustrations Of the harometrr see
saw. Going back through an interval of over
thirty years. he showed that when the pressure
was sensibly higher than the average in India
il would almost invariably be below the mean
i'll South America Between the areas which
exhibit opposite conditions the boundaries are
not yet well defined, nor is the duration of an
abnormal state OF things always the same The
Interval apparently varies from year 10
four. There does not appear to be regular
periodicity from which conclusions regarding
the future can safely be drawn Nevertheless,
there IS significance in the single fact that the
opening Of a new chapter of history I'm one To-
cality is often attended by corresponding
change in another. remote from the first The
phenomenon needs more study before it can be
turned to account practically. but il seems 10
point to n thoroughly rational system Of LONG
range forecaSting 1t will not enable the expert
to predict what will happen particular day,
hut It may possibly assist him 10 reach fairly
accurate conclusion of the general character OF
n period several months in length
Caution must be exercised in attemDtinp To
explain sustained departures from the average
OF many years over large area Compensating
excuses or deficiencies in other parts of the
globe are perfectly Ineligible because there is
only just so much atmosphere Accommodations
Eere mean scarcity there. 1t is conceivable of
course, that exceptional obscurity in one local
ity. say, from an abundance of volcanic dust
might thus destroy the balance by cutting off
some Of the suns heat in one locality. There
is stronger probability, however that fuctua-
tons in the output of solar energy will some dav
be logically connected with the observed effect
Any one who is familiar with the extent and
Violence Of the disturbances which occur on the
sun will find such a suggestion more credible
than the notion that diminutive bodies. whose
surfaces undergo no apparent change. have anv
appreciable influence