The Evening statesman. [volume] (Walla Walla, Wash.) 1903-1910, 1904-02-03
THE PIVOTAL STATE.
The Wall Street journal SAYS:

New York will be the pivotal state in
the election of 1904, as it has been in
most OF the past presidential cleo
| tions of this country. 1t is true that
in 1892. 1896 and 1900. Cleveland in the
first year and Mckinley in the other
two, received electoral votes large
enough to have elected them without
the vote of New York, but the condi-
tons In those years We're exceptional.
and moreover, it is altogether probab bic
that if New York had actually cast Il
majority against them in those years.
it would have carried other states with
it to an extent which would have
changed the results
This fact is important to all who de-
sire to keep informed as to the polit-
ical situation this year, which has
such an important bearing on the bust
ness interests of the country Any
study of the electoral situation will de-
monstrate how essential the vote of
New York is to both parties 1t may be
said that the democrats cannot pos
sibly win without it. and that the re-
publicans probably cannot win without
it.
The total electoral vote in 1904 will
be 416. an increase of % over 1900. The
votes necessary to choice will be 239.
Since 1876 the democrats have carried
iii every election in which the states
have taken part. Ala bama. Arkansas
North Carolina. South Carolina Ten
nessee. Texas and Virginia. Il total of
l4l. This year they are very sure of
carrying Kentucky. and will proba bly,
recover control of Maryland and pos
sibly Delaware. which would bring the
total of electoral votes which this
party may depend upon up to 161. leav-
ing, however, IS more required in order
to elect its candidate. If in addition
York. Illinois and West Virginia. with
either New Jersey. or Connecticut. it |
would win the victory All of these |
states were carried by Cleveland in |
1892. 1t is clear how essential the 80 |
electoral votes of New York are to |
the democrats
Since 1876 the republicans have car !
ried at every election Iowa. Maine. !
Massa chusetts. Michigan. Minnesota
New Hampshire. Ohio, Pennsylvania,
Rhode Island and Vermont. total of |
1873. They are reasonably sure also of !
carrying California. Kansas, Eebras-
ka. North Dakota, South Dakota Indi-
ana, Washington. Wisconsin, and Wyo-
ming. which would bring their total up
to o61. There would however, still be
lacking 3S votes necessary to elect heir
candidates. The vote of New York
would just accomplish this with one
TO spare or the republicans might win
without New York if they carried III
inois and New Jersey. Their chances
of carrying Illinois are very much
brighter than those of the democrats 4
Illinois being essentially republican
state. New Jersey, however, is likely
to go as New York goes, the sentiment
of it's voters being controlled very
largely by the same influences which
control in the state of New York.
This analysis of the electoral vote
makes it. clear that the campaign of
the state of New York. This state is
en- exceedingly doubtful one politically
1t has been carried by the republic
cans in presidential elections in 1872;
1880, 1883. 1896 and 1899. and by the
democrats in 1876, 1854. and in 1892 1t |
has elected a republican governor in
no means proves that it has become
safely republican. AS a matter of fact
the normal republican ma jority above
the Bronx. and the NORMAL democratic
majority III Greater New York very
nearly match each other. and what is
known rs the independent vote can
Welt III 1898. when running for COVER
nor. carried the state by only $4,000 |!
plurality, and Odell last year by less
than 5000. If the democrats nominate
a conservative candidate for president |
there is every reason to believe that |
the vote in this state will be close, and |
result until the ballots are counted. |