The county record. [volume] (Kingstree, S.C.) 1885-1975, 1904-11-17
Long Distance Weather
Forecasts.

all the sciences, from the edrilesl
dawn of civilization, has been hamper
ed and burdened by the actions OF
men incapable Of mastering the prin'
ciples involved in the study of science.
yet had the keenness to be alive to
the possibilities of science for the pub
lie good. These men were unscrupu'
lous enough to assume to them the
false garb Of knowledge, and in that
false garb pose as apostles of the
science. for personal gain and utter
ly regardless of the good OF humanity.
In their false guise, it is true, these
imposters were but the laughing stock
of men of science and deemed unwor-
thy of serious notice. while the lgnor-
ant and credulous believed more
readily in the false than in the true,
as the former promised more. were
more mysterious, claimed to know 1t
all, and it is too sadly true, that the
people in ages past, as in our own
age, delighted in being humbugged.
and were willing to pay for ther
pleasure.
Thus it was that the beautiful
science of astronomy that demon
strates with such exactneSS the mo-
ton Of the heavenly bodies and that
teaches other properties that pertain
10 them only, gave rise to the astrolo-
ger who made the credulous believe
that planets had an influence or the
destinies Of men. until a wiser age
destroyed the fallacy. Thus it wa;
that chemistry gave rise to the al
81 ;y ,ic 1orStQrinnc
preteTnatural processes made the
credulouS believe that he had the
command of the much sought for elk
er Of life. Thus it was that the
science of medicine gave rise 10 the
quack with his nostrums. and who,
even today, deludes the sick and al
flicted with his deadly doses: and
thus it is that the beautiful and intrl-
cate science of meteorology .and
weather forecasting has given rise to
its own peculiar parasites. host Of
long range weather forecasters. that
in a mysterious and wholly irrational
way claim to be able to foresee that
which patient, hard and intelligent
study of meterology by learned men
in all parts of the world has not been
able to do, and by them has been
declared impracticable.
It is true that our own weather bu-
reau and the meteorological services
of other countries have demonstrated
the practicability of forecasting the
weather for from one. two or in very
favorable conditions three days in ad-
vance with reasonble accuracy, but
honest forecasters, with one accord,
deny the possibility of forecastlng the
weather for a month or 4 season in
advance, and yet these charlatans,
fakes. Or what nots. who make fair
though fraudulent living by selling
such forecasts to the public. and,
what is still more strange, reputable
papers, that ordinarily are not will
ing parties to any fraud, publish such
forecasts in their columns. ~
The ,desirabiliry Of long range fore.
casts is admitted. their usefulness, II
they were possible cannot be gainsaid,
and their attempt is not deprecated.
On the contrary success is ardently
hoped for and encouraged on rational
grounds, but their practicability is, at
present wholly denied and can be
shown by any attempt however friend
ly, 10 verify them whenever made.
People who are familiar with meteor
ology know this, but the many have
not studied the science, and influenced
by their desire for knowledge and mis-
led by The spurious though plausible
claim of unprincipled long range iore-
casters readily buy and believe the
goods to be genuine. Few test its
orth by actual verification. but cred
ulously accept accidental agreement
between the forecasted weather and
what actually occurred AS convincing
proof, while the failures that so MI
merously happen, if noted at all, are
charitably forgiven and forgotten. 1t
would indeed be strange # some OF
the long range forecasts did nor
prove correct, for the chances are as
about one in five that they will. if or
binary intelligence is exercised in
making them. and it is this probability
of chances that gives life to the long
range forecaster. But he has other
deceptive devices, such as clothing
his forecasts in the most general ana
indefinite language; he guards care
fully against any attempt to disprove
his forecasts and keeps open loop
hole for escape, and also stating that
he has in mind some other section
Of the country where the forecasted
conditions did actually occur.
While mctcorology IA smadc rap
Id progress in the last fifty years, and
the fact has been amply demonstrated
that the weather is governed by laws
as certain in their operations as those
governing other phenomena OF nature,
yet it mas not advanced far enough
to enable the weather to be fore
casted for a season or even month
in advance. The Weather Bureau
makes no claim to be able to make
correct forecasts for periods longer
than one. two or at longest three days.
and for the longest period there must
be very decided conditions, as shown
by the daily survey of the atmospher',
by its numerous trained and skillful
observers. With all the skill and
training of the best talent available,
and with as conscientious effort as
true and honest men are capable OF,
mistakes do and will occurr.