Yorkville enquirer. [volume] (Yorkville, S.C.) 1855-2006, 1904-12-16
WORTH 10 CENTS.
Frank B. Hayne Talks About
Cotton.
ESTIMATE TOO HIGH.

OVttOus
GOVERNMENT ESTIMATE TOO HIGH.
An Operator In Whom the South Has
Reason to Have the Greatest Conf
denee' Gives His Views Of the situa-
ton and Offers Some Sound Ad-
vice.
New Orleans Times Democrat.
Frank B. Hayne believes that the
government bureau report, estimating
the crop Of cotton for the current sea-
son to be 12.162.O00 bales, is too large
by far, and this he follows up by de-
clafing that granting the accuracy of
the government report, the logic OF
the market is at fault In forcing "a
cents as the legitimate valuation Of the
staple, when 1t should still be 10 cents.
Mr.. Hayne says. in his published inter-
view, that he believes the estimate Of
Theodore H. Price Of 11,121,0OO bales.
will be nearer the actual figures Of the
years crop than the government re-
port.
The prominent cotton operator an
alyzes the cotton situation at length,
and announces as his conclusion that
the staple. even on a basis of H.
100000 bale crop. should bring nearer
10 cents per pound than u cents. In
conclusion he urges the cotton plant
ers to hold their cotton, and to force
the purchase Of the remaining portion
of the crop at a figure representing the
actral worth Of the staple.
The interview with Mr.. Hayne fol-
lows:
'In response to your request to give
you my views regarding the cotton
situation, and what Is the best course
for the south to pursue In marketing
the remainder Of this crop. will state'
first, the south should bear In mind
that 1t Is possible the government has
overestimated the crop. An error or
only s per cent would make a differ
ence of nearly 65O,000 bales in the size
of the crop, and as the bureaus es-
innate, after all, Is simply consolida-
ton of the guesses Of their various
correspondents, per cent mistake
Is by means an impossibility. 1t seems
strange that all Of the cotton ex-
changes of the country whose members
are composed practically Of everybody
who sells and buys the crop, should
uniformly have estimated same so far
below the bureaus figures. The esti-
mate of your paper was the nearest
approach to the governments estimate
and YOU certainly must acknowledge
that a s per cent error in your returns
would be by no means improbable.
Personally, confess that can not be-
lieve that a crop practically picked
and ginned by Dec. can have reach
ed these figures.
"A few days before the last ginners
report came out, Theodore H. Price
stated that IL the figures showed g.
100000 bales cotton had been ginned'
It would indicate crop Of 11,O22'Ooo
bales. as he had received advices from
thousands Of reliable correspondents
throughout the entire south that
whatever amount had been ginned up
to the middle Of November would be
8S per cent of the crop. AS the GIN
ners' report showed 9,7S6,000 bales cot
ton, had been ginned, the crop thus
indicated would be 11.121,O0O Bales
For myself l can not help but believe
that this estimate of Theodore n.
Prices correspondents will be nearer
the mark than either that OF the Du-
reau or Of your esteemed paper.
But never mind what the size OF the
crop Is, for some time to come the
world in general will believe the bu-
reau estimate is correct. The question
therefore Is: II the crop Is l2,OOo,ooo
bales, what should be the legitimate
price for what remains unsold? l
think everybody will acknowledge that
II last years crop and this years crop
had both been 100000 10 cents for
either year would have been consider
ed the minimum price for cotton.
therefore can not believe that the un-
equal distribution of 1O,OOO,OOO last
wear and 100000 this year should
mean that cotton now should only be
worth seven and half cents. 1t Is my
opinion the governments report was
so much larger than expected that the
trade is demoralized at present; put III
a short time the facts Of the case Will
be realized, and cotton Will regain lts
legitimate value.
"A great many Of the southern
newspapers seem to think that whlie
this low price for cotton Is misfor-
tune to the planter, it means enormous
prosperity to the spinner. think this
Is a mistake, and that the majority OF
SINNERS, not only in America but IN
the balance of the world, would mnch
prefer that cotton should not have de-
clined as much as 1t has. Last SUM-
mer. when cotton had declined from
IS cents to 10 cents, every speculator
and every producer Of cotton was
bearish, everybody was selling the fali
months around nine and a half cents.
In spite of this bearish feeling and the
enormous sales Of future contracts, the
market would not decline but remain
ed steady for months around those
figures. There was no bull speculative
interest at that time whatsoever; the
market was sustained entirely by the
spinner either buying future contracts
or spot contracts from exporters VINO
would buy the futures to cover the
sale of same. At that time every one
was predicting an enormous crop OF
12. OOO, 900 bales or over, and yet the
spinner was willing to pay nine ana a
half cents. The spinner has bought
cotton up to next July on that OASIS
and l cannot think 1t Is to their inter-