The San Francisco call., 1904-02-18
WAR, FIRE And MONEY.
Hoay Val Street Regards the
Current Sensations.

The New York circular OF Henry Ciews
''1vau street has proved its soundness by
the stout resistance offered 10 a quick sue
cession of severe shocks. the like o. which
have not been previously experienced. The
lapse in cotton speculation, 10 say nothing OF
r.+ e--rs- ,7ror The r1oneta~v sir1,ation -baf
would have wrought disaster had the financial
fabric disclosed any weak points OF import
ance- The fact. however, that our market
yielded only a couple az points under such
an avalanche ot unfayorable news ana quick
ly reacted afterward is highly reassuring. and
oenlons-rares anew the beneficial effects Of
our heavy liquidation in 1903. Had these ad-
verse elements happened year ago they would
have Drecipitated a panic, whereas now they
have bUt transient effect and have afforded
a most satisfactory test
The war Of course. temporarily over
shadows all other influences. Thus far none
ol the worlds money markets has seriously
telr the war the worst effect falling upon
Paris. whore Russian bonds are largely held.
- than 500. 100000 of Russian bonos- 50
that Russia-s chances OF increasing her Dor
roninEs from her best friend good terms
are not very brilliant.
FIRE AND COTTON MARKET.
The Baltimore FIRE viii not be a serious
stock market influence The best estimates
are that the losses 10 insurance companies
NlA -aA below S5o,gpopo considerable
portion Cf which must be paid by foreign COM
graqually, IN many cases cut Of surplus funds
~ by temporary loans. SO that no great
% ray losses which fall chiefly upon strong
companies able 20 meet all these obligations
without difficulty.
Another disturbing feature was the long
feared collapse of the speculation in cotton. The
Government report cotton giuned. issued
--l-es5av proved oorcIIleivelV that the bull
campaign on cotton had been conducted on
mistaken calculations TO the crop. Some
u rhe bun leaders had predicted yield as
low as e500OC0 bales while the Government
report showed 8 .4h5. 900 commercial bales gin
ned ~ to January Is. with a considerable por-
tion ot the crop yet ~ be heard from This
irtarUation quickly destroyed the extreme
short crop theories and seriously impaired II
not ended. the bull campaign In this quar-
Ter there has been no actual destruction OF
property, hut simply a loss ~ paper profits
and "a more or Jess violent shifring OF wealth
tron one class ~ operators 70 another. Thus
tar Io serious troubles have followed the
break. which VIII De felt with most severity
RAILROAD BORROWINGS.
There is just one other feature which in
cuces ca-rioD ana that IS the extraordinary
ulrFlF'-ngs lL Dig rallroad and other corpora
Lls t------ me [a.l-l-aos- MltnlL lls last
reW weeks over 500. .Dll,0o0 OF notes. bonds
and other obligations have been placed on
t1e market and more are likely 10 follow.
The great bulk Of these commitments are Of
q rrst-c-ass character, but they are turning
r11rtuE capital -ut0 liked capital al a rate
that 81 carried much farther VIII necessitate
rGlC. Good investments VIII undoubtedly
crowd those OF q lower grade. and this mass
r- Ue-r creations WIN not be deemed bull
luruenr rarriculzrIv with the loan account OF
The associated banEs standing above the 1000
million mark. 10 doubt much Of the re-
sistenoe shown by the market this week was
owing o. the support Cf powerful bankers. who
have undertaken ~ float these new 0bliga-
Lai-s- ~ cllf-e many ~ our rallroao corpora
ti1rs are driven % these enormous Outlays
order meet urgent traffic demands.
fElt The investments may be considered both
necessary and sound; still. II the supply Of
such securities prove greater than demand,
values must be expected 70 suffer accordingly.
Money stil appears tC be easy but IL viii
De- prudent t0 await the effects of all these IN
usual demands, which Wil certainly interfere
virl any extended bull campaign. Speculation
uil have wait until more necessary require
rle-ts are satisfied. AS said before. the sftua-
riCr Is sound and promising. but il is a good
rlrle ro move cautiously The Northern Sc
cIrfties case IS stil hanging over the mar
re- and though an unfavorable decision 70
THE company would cause no surprise. IL would
probably leceserate some very extensive
shifting of plans among the big owners Of
ra lroad properties