The Hood River glacier. (Hood River, Or.) 1889-1933, 1904-12-29
REGARDS IT AS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FORECASTS At LONG RANGE
Local Man Has More to Say on the
Suhject-Weather Bureau to Make
Extensive Observations.

The subject Of long-range or seasonal
forecasts Of the weather seems yet to be
seriously agitating the government
officials, as well as the lesser lights in
weather representations. II. b, Wren,
Of Maryland, had the following to say
ON the subject a short time ago, which
was copied and issued by Section Direct
or Beals, at Portland, in the climate and
crop service bulletin for November, just
received:
"The ceaseless change in the midst Of
essential stability and permanence that
is apparent among heavenly bodies sug-
gests relation between those move
ments and the destinies of men and OF
nations as We'll as OF weather sequences.
So obvious is this analogy, that it is
not strange thNt in The childhood OF the
race it VS. exalted into absolute casual
connecto. There is no more interest
ing page Of history than that which
traces the growth of astrol0gy through
its various phases, the art OF dlVinaton,
the taking ui the horoscopes and aus
piCcs, and the gradual development Of
the science OF Il, tronomy and meteOrol-
ogy The first crude theories and CON
ccptions Of the ChaIdean priests and the
Magi We're honest efforts to interpret
natural phenomena. In the later and
less simple ages, however, when the
priestiy class were still the repositories
OF wisdom, they sought to perpetuate
their influence by COncealing knowledge
from the masses or by enshroudlng it
IN mystery, and finally they welded it
not to enlightcn but to enslave. And
so persistent is slavery, and so deep.
seated in the heart OF the race are these
early teachings and beliefs that there is
even yet a dispos tion to accept the su.
pernatural rather than to seek the nat
uraI causes OF things.
AstrOIOgy once peTmeated all religion,
all science, ani even politics; and the
bancful inhence of unfounded, unreas-
onabe, or pOrtenteous predictions is
not modern alIiction. Montaigne the
French philosopher and essayist OF the
sixteenth century, remarks that "a
| large sum Of money was lost on Change
at Rome by this prOgnOsticatiOn OF our
ruin" referring to the prediction by
Italian astrOlogers Of the downfall OF
the French nation. Dean Swift, the
| powerful satirist, wrote Predictions for
/ The year l7OS, by Isaac Bickerstalf, Esq"
| 70 emphasize the absurdities and weak
en- the influence OF long range forecast.
err. The infinite desirability of fore
| knowing the seasons for the benefit Of
/ husbandmcn is at once the opportunity
Of charatans and the justification OF
| National Weather Service, 1t avails
little to deCrv the methods OF impostOrs
/ or to brand them as fakirs; the court Of
/ final resort must always be the compar.
! isOn of results; and such comparison
every one can now make for himself
| Weather maps showing the actual con.
! ditions on every day are now published
! by practically every civilized nation and
are accessible to all and all that Is
needed to cure implicit beliefin almanac
predictions is an honest comparison Of
these predictions for single sea
son with the actual occurrences a
shown by these maps. ConspiCuou
instances Of failure such as those 0
artificial rain makers, who decade agt
were given the fullest opportunity t.
test and exploit their theories; or tn,
colorIess results Of the extensive bonn
blrdmcrt as a protection against hail
which has been conducted for severa
years in Southern Europe, do not con
vince the credulOus. They do serve
however, to illustrate the Confusion o
tongues among the prophets OF thes
' latter days, who lombard the skle
to prcripitate storms, and bombar
the clouds to dissipate them Govern
meteuUlOglsts are not alone in the dc
! nuucialiDn Of the falaces, absurditie
{ and pernicions effects Of so-called long
range forecasts. Professor Young, prot
ably the foremost American astronomer
, speaking Of lunar influences, points ou
2 that the frequency Of the moons chang
p e. is so great that it is always easy t
= to find instances by which to verify b.
, lief that the changes OF the moon COZ
p troll conditions on the earth. A chang
, of the moon necessarily occurs abOu
e bnee a week. All changes Of the weati
Y er must therefore occur within three an
= three-ioufths days Of a change Of IL
/. moon, and One-hali of all the chang,
{ ought to occur within 46 hours OF
r change in the moon even il there we
i no causal connection whatever. Now
/ requires only a very slight predispos
ton in favor OF the effectiveness OF Il
j. moons changes to make one forget
icH Of the changes that occur too I