The Minneapolis journal. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn.) 1888-1939, 1904-05-07
The Crop Situation.

= This is the most backward spring
the country has had in many year,
md whether or not it is going to have
any serious effect commercially Is
question worth considering. Sixteen
years ago there was season almost
las late, and in 1885 navigation on the
Great Lakes did not open until May 5.
X To go back half a century is to
find only four years in which naviga-
ton was as late In opening as in the
present year.
q There are many theories about pros
Eperity-affecting factors, which. If not
11fallible, are at least interesting, as,
for instance, the already half-demon-
I. strated cycle theory of panics and de-
pressions. Along this line of theoriz-
sng it is interesting to note that in
four years out of thirty-one, in which
navigation was unusually late in
fopening-when presumably there was
Aa backward spring generally-wheat
prices ranged phenomenally high.
The late seasons occurred in 1878,
1881, 1885 and 1888. July, 1873, saw
wheat up to $1.46, and in October,
1881, it touched s1,43A; April, 1885,
s91A; and September, 1888, 81. That
manipulation and a thousand and one
other things entered into these prices
is very probable. They afford no safe
basis to go upon, yet would appear
to bear out fairly well the general
proposition that a late spring is not
favorable for big crops. .,
This year we need big crops, and
hof will q iy, he
northwest is not improbable from the
outlook at this time. The seed is in,
over most Of the wheat area, altho
portions Of northern Minnesota and
North Dakota are still too wet for
seeding. For the most part, how
ever, the soil is in good condition and
all we ask now is reasonably good
weather.
AS to winter wheat, that is quite an
4 Iother matter. Even with the most
favorable conditions from now on, it is
hard to see how a big crop can Dc
raised. A month ago the condition
of the crop was 1876, the lowest for
nineteen years. and this on an area
100000 acres under last year. This
was not only a poor showing, but a
showing deplorably bad.
The question, then, is one as to the
probability of improvement after
april 1. The records show that in
1892 the condition Of winter wheat
Z before harvest time was 8.3 points
higher than on April /, and that in
T. $3.50 the improvement was equal to
.03, but these are the only two years
in fifteen in which there was i'm
provement after April, the others
showing declines. In these thirteen
years the losses ranged to as high as
15.4 points in one season, and last year
the drop was almost 20 points. TIC
give even a respectable return winte,
wheat must this year maintain it's pc.
sition if not improve upon it, an6
while it may do this latter in some
small degree, the chances would ap
pear to be very largely against it
How much has been gained or los
during April will be known on Tues
day next when the government re-
port giving the condition to May 1
will appear.
We may as we'll make up our minds
then, that the only crop about which
anything definite can be known a
this early date is not going to NOR,
shan run UP to last year at best, AM
\ may fall much below.
/ Spring wheat ought to do we'll,
big corn acreage Is likely, and if tn
4 hot. dry summer predicted by Hick
comes along, there will be a niue,
II better corn chance than last year
4 Other grains should do well, and tn
FIRST cotton acreage estimate say
Il there is an area in that plant at leas
II 10 per cent larger than year ago.
For the country as a whole, there
fore, the probability of a smaller win
III ter wheat crop Is not necessarily sc
rious. Other crops could easily max
this up. and bumper crop would al
most mean prosperity in itself.
TO the northwest and to Mime
aNolis this is a proposition Of a ia
more serious nature. The country he
got to have wheat and ought tn
AZ year to have large crop a
around to even up and make "a pier
fiful supply for home Requirement
u and a big exportab1e surplus. Wha
b sver chance there was for this hi
HI been lessened almost to the point
b ampossibility. Unless winter whe,
n Improves greatly. the northwest wi
Ehave to produce a big crop to eve
mold up the average total productio
" INSTEAD of northwestern millers goir
M Eoutside to get choice wheat, it is pc
@s sible millers Of the country at lars
FL may this year have to turn more ths
~ lever to Minneapolis. This sort
thing. with good spring wheat Gre