The Minneapolis journal. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn.) 1888-1939, 1904-06-11
The Course of Business.

The Course of Business.
Business barometers now indicate
that the "Iow" has been passed in the
western traffic field, that nothing
worse need be feared, and that a
healthy reaction will manifest itself
in a few weeks. The bearing of these
representations upon general business
sentiment is important. Railroad
earnings form a good business index.
But as they reflect conditions lmme-
diately past, they are not always the
safest basis for business forecasts.
There comes a change when they are
at worst or at best, a change that can
show up only in later figures. Of all
signs, however, they are the most re-
liable. and while they cannot precede
but must follow the march of events,
the figures the roads put out show
the relative commercial activity of
the country with a nearer approach
to exactitude than anything else. Con-
flicting rumors may come from differ
ent sections and good and bad reports
appear, but decrease Of 1.21 per cent
in the gross earnings of forty-one
roads for the fourth week Of May, or
decrease of 500 per cent in net
earnings Of seventy-seven roads for
April, is cold fact. We may hear that
business is to decline, that it is de-
Ginning, that it has declined, but not
until we get the railroad earnings for
particular section, for a certain
period, can we judge conclusively as
to whether there has actually been
recession and to what extent. @
When tonnage offerings recently
were at a point lower than for long
time and were. apparently tending
towards still further decrease, the d.
verting of normal alexandria, traffic
to the railroads helped them out mate
rally, and altho the number of boat
cargoes afioat on the Great Lakes has
been largely increased within day
or two, the roads are still finding much
business. Meanwhile it is getting
closer to harvest time in the south
western winter wheat states. If the
roads can hold up reasonably we'll
until the crops begin to move, it will
go long way towards checking the
growing tendency towards pessimism
which finds vent in expressed fears of
the passing of railroad dividends and
Is accompanied by vague rumors of
industrial receiverships. This sort of
thing usually shows up first in the
stock market where anticipation is a
fine art. There every change of wind
brings change Of sentiment. The mere
suggestion Of the possibility of a divi-
dend being passed Is sufficient to cause
hesitation, and anything tending to af-
rect values Is promptly seized upon
and emphasized and magnifed by
manipulators whose plans may fit in
with it. With a dull stock market
and no particular pressure upon the
general list, a recent sale of a single
lot of 100 shares of Minneapolis e. St
Louis stock registered a decline of 81
points and one of the Chicago &
Great Western issues fell 10 points
When such a,tendency continues un.
checked other stocks are easily af-
fected. After a time this uneasy sensi.
tlveness spreads to the commercial
field, confidence is weakened and fur.
Their business recession follows. Hence
IT the railroad reports are to run bet.
ter from now on, as seems reasonable
to expect, it will go far towards allay.
Ing nervousness and putting stop tc
the present trend towards ultra-con.
servatism before it has gone far.
It would be too much to expect ar
increase In business activity on the
whole, If precedent counts for any.
thing, for the ante-election period is
not time for 1t, but it would seen
that the country ought now to settle
down with steadiness at about the
present level until after the nomina.
tions are made. Then when the can.
didates are before the people and the
issues defined it will be time enough
to consider the possible effects upor
business of the election of either can
didate, and the effectuation of the
principles he may stand for.
Two things contrary to earlier ex
pectations are shown In the govern
nent crop report-tEe winter whea
condition was more than maintained
during May, and the spring whea
acreage Is trifle under last years. I
Y 4. / . & : !.
is the rule for winter wheat to declin.
thru May, and only three times il
fifteen years have there been gains
This is one Of the exceptional years il
that respect and SO against the stant
at 1855 on May /, the June i condition
is TIT. Under normal conditions, O
anything reasonably favorable. Their
would have been a material fncreas
In the spring wheat acreage this year
High prices were the main induce
rnent. Moreover the northwest ha,
turned out no bumper wheat crop 70
several years. and there was disposi
ton to cut out flax and go in NOR
for wheat, and reason to believe
start would be made this year on tn
largest acreage ever. The fact tina