The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1904-07-03

| (SDeCldI TO line w aSn1nRUOn POSt.D
st. Louis, June 30.-The Democratic
situation as it involves the party S
choice for President may now be
summed up as follows:
Delegates elected ............. 994
| Necessary to a choice ........... 500
Instructed for Parker ........ 270
Instructed for Hearst ........ LAG
| Instructed for favorite sons -. 14S
Total instructed delegates ...... 562
/ Total uninstructed ............. 432
] Preferences for Parker ........ 1875
| Preferences for Hearst ........ 81
Total for Parker .............. 465
| Total for Hearst ............. 200
DouDtIul 1913
These figures give the best obtain
able forecast of the first ballot in the
Democratic National convention. The
Missouri State convention yesterday
elected the last delegates to be chosen
for the convention of 1904. The to-
tai is 994, exclusive of the two dele
cations from Porto Rico and the
Philippines, which will not partici-
pate in the temporary organization.
Unless There is aStampede.
Parker has a lead so great as to
foreshadow his nomination on the Sc
cond or third ballot unless there is a
stampede to Cleveland. Hearst can
not possibly secure anywhere near a
vatives will have a clear two-thirds
of the convention and will be able to
dictate both the candidate and the
platform. 1t seems quite impossible
that any Bryan combination should be
able to secure a third of the conven-
ton to act in rule-or-ruin policy.
! There is q good deal of talk here
about the possibility CT a stampede
to Cleveland or Mcclellan. All this
talk comes, however, from the Tam
| many people, some of whom are al
| ready on their way.
! A close canvass of the returns from
every State show that the Parker
Hearst and favorite-sCn delegates
who are actually instructed, foot up
more than a majority of the conven-
ton. so that it is manifestly impos-
| sible that there can be any choice
of a candidate on the first ballot with
out violation Of instructions, which
| is an extremely unlikely contingency.
.Favorite Sons Who've No Chance.
This solid phalanx OF $50 instructed
votes will begin to melt almost inn
mediately after the first ballot. There
are 46 votes, for instance, from the
States of Delaware. Massachusetts,
/ Missouri Ohio Snd Wisconsin, which
are instructed Cor Judge Gray, form
er Secretary olney, Senator Cockrell
| former Attorney General Harmon
\
Of these men has chance for the
nomination, and in each case they
were put up to head off the posi-
hility of any landsides to Hearst.
These favorite-son votes Will begin
to fall at once. They all belong to
the conservative element. and as such
are counted upon by the Parker men
as something in the nature of a posi-
| tive future asset.
Judge Parker's strength lies first in
| the fact that he has such large
number OF instructed votes b3hind
| him. The table of instructed Par
ker votes is as follows: Alaska, 6;
Arkansas, IS; Connecticut, IA; Gee
/ gia, 26 Indiana, so; Louisiana, Is;
/ Mississippi. 90 New York, 7S Ten
/ nessee, "a; Texas. So: total. 270.
| There are eleven other States which
have declared for Parker, most of
them by actual resolutions in tha
! State conventions.
Lean to Parker. but Uninstructed.
New jersey. under the unit rule, is
undoubtedly for Parker unless it shalt
| be decided to put Cleveland in nomi-
nation. AS this will certainly not be
done on the first ballot, New Jersey
i is put in the Parker column. This
table of the States which are not In
structed Tor the New York judge, but
which are dependent upon consev
ative basis to vote for him, even Ola
| the first ballot, is as follows:
Parker Observation-Disclosures, % I
| Florida, Z; Kansas, 6; Kentucky, 20;
Michigan, %; New Hampshire, &;
New Jersey, "a: North Carolina, "a,
South Carolina, IS: Vermont, 8; Vir-
ginia. "a. Total, 1885,
When the almost solid South is
backed up by instructions from New
York, Connecticut, and Indiana, three
Northern doubtful States, the Parker
| men consider that his position is inn
pregnable. His nomination, therefore.
seems certain. unless there is an err
| ratio stampede to Cleveland or Nc
| ClclIan. and there has been too much
| talk of this in advance to make it al
| together likely. Nine out of tel Of
all the Democratic leaders are openly
| for Parker and he will get fully half
| of the favorite son votes.
Editor Hearst's Following.
| Hearst has made no progress what
ever since the Illinois conention. 1t is
well-known fact that several scores
| of delegates VIII come here and vote
| for him for the Presidency under in.
structions, but will not follow his
| leadership in any other direction, and
will not vote for him long. This list of
States and Territories actually in
| structed for Hearst according to the
recors, is as follows: Arizona, g.; Cali
fornia, 20; Hawaii, 6; Idaho, 6; Illi-
nois, 81 Iowa, 20; New Mexico, G.;
Rhode Island, 8; South Dakota, 8:
| Wyoming. 6; total. 143. The table OF
! Hearst preferences, which may or
may not eventuate on the first ballot,
can be made up as follows: Colorado,
2, Florida, 8; Kansas, IA; Maine, 81;
| Montana, 6; Nevada, s; Oregon. g.;
Utah. 2; Washington 10; total, "a.
/ Votes as Yet Unplaced.
This tabulation, which has been
made entirely without bias, leaves a
bunch of 1873 delegates for the doubt
| full column, as follows: Colorado, 81
District of Columbia, 6; Maine, g.;
| Mtsyland, l6; Minnesota %; Ne
braska, 16; North Dakota, 8: Okla
hon1a, 6; Pennsylvania, 6S; Utah, a;
West Virginia, II; Indian Territory,
6; total, 1873.
Rather Bites A Rabbit.