The Birmingham age-herald., 1904-01-16

fK Al
 D assurances to the contrary,
 there is only one possible out come of the situation in the far east. Japan and Russia are face to face. and 1t is impossible for either of them to draw back. There must be an appeal to the sword, and Japan has not day to lose before drawing 1t.
 The only element of doubt in the sit- uation Is whether she has not already waited little too long for the attain ment of the result which last July was alomst mathematical certainty for her In the interval Russia has doubled her force on land and has nearly doubled it on sea in the far east
 am told on good authority, although will not vouch for it's truth, that France whose aid could not be asked for against "small power like Japan by the Northern Colossus, and whose direct intervention would at once bring England into the field under the terms of the Anglo-Japanese convention, has still so far shown her complaisance to her ally as to sell, or to agree to sell, some of her ships of war to her, and that the arrangements for a quick transfer of crews in the Levant have been made.
 In any case. Russia has turned to the best account the six months interval be- tween the breach of the Manchurian con- vention last April and the second breach a few days ago. A great part of her military and naval power for offensive purposes has been concentrated between Port Arthur and Yongam-Pho Unless Japan decides to act quickly, before the naval endorsements now on the way reach the scene of contest, she will find herself in position of manifest inferi- ority on the sea- She will have waited too long, and instead of setting the initia- tive in the far east she will have to re- tire into the second line behind the un- certain proceedings of the United States and the halting policy of England.
 It is because the loss of the position to which she aspires, and rightly aspires, would so clearly follow if she were to quail at this moment before the formid- able demonstration of her rival that Ja- pan will act and act before those Russian ships have passed Singapore. I wish to emphasize that point of passage, the gate of the far east" because, Just as France is credited with acts of coplais- ance toward it's ttular ally, so might we very we'll render similar service to our ally if, at the moment of the Russian ships passing this point, she stood in need of helping hand. But the fortune of war will probably have declared Itself before that day, and we shall know with the rest of the world whether these rein forcements are hastening onward to con- firm success or to add to the spoil of the victors.
 In the eyes of continentals, with the ex- ception, perhaps, of the instructed opn- ion of Berlin. headquarters staff, which, I believe retains an open mind on the subject, the person who declares that that gigantic imposture known as the empire of all the Russias, which is rotten and unsound from foundation to pinnacle, is about to receive it's first rude lesson at the hands of an Oriental race and power is regarded with the superclious curiosity that is bestowed on a maniac.
 And it Is very natural that the possibil- ity of Russian overthrow on the Korean coast should be summarily rejected in Paris and Brussels, where 1t would entail the immediate revision of all political cal culations. The collapse of the Northern Colossus at the touch of Ithuriers spear, in the hands of the mikado and his sea captains, is not a vision that our friends in Western Europe can bring themselves | to anticipate as within the bounds oe | possibility before it has passed into tine stage of history.
 | But a careful comparison of the two 1 ffeets--of their quality. and, above all of their gun power-leaves no room for doubt that the advantage, although not so decisive as 1t was in July, is still on the side of Japan. If the Japanese estab- 1 fish their superiority, or even their equal I ity in the first stage or struggle it is cer- ] tain that as the struggle progresses that superiority will become more marked be- cause their repairing yards. arsenals and coal depots are close at hand. Both the contestfng fleets will be badly mauled in the first encounters. but in the succeed l ing rounds, to use the language of the ring, the Japanese will be able to come up 1 smiling" and the longer the struggle 1 continues the more incontestable will be their advantage. I refer exclusively to the naval war: what happened on land is an entirely different matter. It would not press for a solution. The Japanese could afford to rest on their laurels to see what other powers were doing, and. above all. to await the development of events in China as the sequel to Russia's reverses.
 To understand Japanese policy correct I iy it is necessary to point out and to re- member that Russia's non-evacuation of Manchuria is not the real reason for Ja-