The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1904-09-04
WILL SHOW
GREAT FALLING OFF
surmise as to Quantities Of.
Products of the Country
That VIII Go Abroad
Globe Special Washington serxie.
| 4417 G Street

f47I 6 Street
w AotdiNGTON, ID. c., Sept a.
There Is little prospect that the ex-
port trade of the United States in the
calendar year 1894 viii be as large as
II was In 1908. For the seven months
ended July Bland the Official record
uoes not go further-there was a.
rail1ng eff OF more than S3e, eO0, 900 in.
exports as compared with those of the
Same period of last year. In order to
equal last years record, the monthly
shipments for the rest of the year will
nave to average about ss,00o,000 more
than those Of the last five months of
1903. and that is hardly to be ex-
pected.
1t is too early to make predictions
about The export trade for the fiscal
year, for the returns for only the first
month have been received by the bu-
reau OF statistics of the department of
commerce. AS the July shipments
were over $4,000, 200 less than in tha
same month Of 1903, however, the out
look for a record year is not very
bright.
Cotton Exports Will Boom
Yet it is to be considered that crop
conditions in the United States may
put an entirely different face
upon the matter. 1t will certainly be
singular if there does not prove to be
big boom in cotton exports, for it is
as certain as anything can be at this
season that the Southern states will
not only produce bumper crop this
year, but that the total output will be
from to is per cent greater than that
OF 1903. Prices will, Of course, have
their influence in the bulk of the cot
ton exports, and the demands of mills
In the United States will be an i'm
portant factor; but it is pretty certain
that the shipments to foreign countries
will be considerably greater than they
were last year.
Although the final estimates of the
corn and wheat crops will not be made
Tor some time it seems likely, from the
best sources of information, that last
years crops will be equaled at least,
and, If so, there may be an improve
ment in shipments abroad. Cotton,
corn and wheat will certainly be a de-
termining factor in the question of
whether the export trade this year will
be greater or less than that of 1903.
The falling off in exports during the
hrSt seven months of this year amount
ed to $50, 49,, 029. The cause Is found
in the fact that cotton shipments in
those months decreased by $7,397,768
and breadstuffs exports fell off to the
extent of $63,090,447. The total de-
| crease in our exports in this seven
| months period would have been vastly
| more than $30,000,0O0 had it not been
for the remarkable growth in shipments
Of manufactured articles.
Agricultural Development Less Rapid
AS already told in these dispatches,
the exports of manufactures in July ex-
ceeded for the first time the value of
agricultural exports. The statisticians
Of the department of commerce explain
this phenomenon partly by the fact
as 1t appears from the census returns
that there is a gradual movement of
rural population toward the manufac-
turing centerS. However this may be,
it is certain that the agricultural de-
velopment of the United States has not
been as rapid as one might expect
from the total Increase in population of
the country. The bumper wheat crop
of the United States was raised in 1901,
when the total production was 49,
46O,218 bushels. The wisest students
of the economics of agricultural pro-
duction and consumption believe it Is
quite likely that this bumper crop will
never be surpassed in this country
So, when it is considered that the con-
sumption of breadstuffs in the United
States is increasing year by year. it Is
to be doubted that our agricultural ex-
ports will reach a much higher figure
than they did in the banner year of our
foreign trade.
The fact that manufactured products
exceeded agricultural products in the
record Of July exports was regarded as
notable fact; but the probability is
that it should be considered a deeply
significant fact. 1t is likely that the
same condition will be presented in
many other months within the next few
years. or as long as the present indus
trial prosperity continues.
Despite the changing conditions Of
domestic production, the officials Of
the department of commerce who make
study of these matters, do not believe
the volume of our export trade has
reached it's highest point. 1t probably
has not even reached the high-Water
mark in shipments Of breadstuffs, but
1t certainly has not attained the high
est point in shipments of finished prod
ucts. The impression is strong. how
ever, that the ratio of these two great
classes OF exports is permanently
changing, and that the time will
come before many years when the
shipments of manufactured products
will equal those OF the products OF
agriculture.
OF the net decrease in exports during
the last seven months, not less than
$28,535,999 was at Eastern ports, and
$1l,519,388 was at the port of New
York. The decrease was experienced
at all the larger ports on the Atlantic
coast, except Boston, where there was a
gain of nearly 100000. There was a
loss of $6,319,510 in the seven months
on the Pacific coast, and an insig-
nificant falling off of SPOIL 625 in a total
commerce of more than s78,00O,000 on
the northern border and great lakes.
Exports by way of the Mexican border
increased in the same seven months
period by s1,975,73S, and through the
gulf ports by S2,600,852.