New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1904-06-21

old party and the forming of an independent
c1, op-%atlon would be. Unless things should
GO. greatly within a short time it is. how
ron 49, 10 see what else Bernstein and his
c'iii-,iiorfning about two-ffths of the entire
loss 80 80 arlny-can do than to cut completely
800 from The old body. And If 1t comes TO
ahat; ne whole political situation for Germany
f nonla be radically altered. There would no
o.iSI pe me overpowering dread of the huge
enc revolutionary mass of Socialists which now
Nmays me average non-Socialist voter and one
other ~
WHO MAY BE NEW CHANCELLOR.
IL was Count Caprlvi. Bismarci1s immediate
successor. who at the outset of his term of Office
remarked sententiously: Germany of TODAY "a
compelled TO either export goods or population
ne was OF opinion that, on the whole II was
better Tor the nation 10 send manufactures
abroad rather than surplus population With
mat idea in his mind. he concluded six impor-
tant commercial treaties, and under their terms
German export has since increased about 1 800
Wo"ro marks Tor about $4,000 900 while
German emigration has Correspondngly de-
creased. During the five years 1SSI-'91 this
emigration averaged 100000 a year: during
ioSi-lol emigration from Germany sank 20
less than 24,oD0 yearly. And this simply be-
cause there was enough work at home, render
ing emigration unnecessary. These commercial
treaties, so palpably beneficial to Gernany's
development. have been renewed since, but
present they nearly all expiring, and it is
regarded as sound craftsmanship either TO have
them again renewed replaced by others of
similar scope and effect. This task in fact, is
The only one Of moment that has far de-
volved upon the Imperial Chancellor, Count
Bulow. 1t is regrettable fact that he is proving
more and more clearly every day that he has
neither the ability the will to carry out this
task, and indications begin to multiply that the
Kaiser, much as personally he likes Buow, in
tends TO replace him with man capable of at
tending TO this most pressing need OF German
internal politics. The goes that this i'm
portant change is to be effected early in the
fan, and that the reconVening Reichstag Is to
find another Chancellor Of the Empire in BID
lows stead The only point that does not as Yet
seem TO be settled in the kaisers mind is who
his successor IS to be.
The matter is full of difficulty. for the fifteen
years of practically personal government under
William ii have not been conducive to produce
a statesman of independent ideas and with
programme of his own. and the saying goes in
Gernlany-popularly at leaSt-that to be the
Kaisers Man Friday is by no means a pleas
ant easy job. DIR. Moller. the Prussian Min
lister of Commerce. would be precisely the man
To conclude new commercial treaties. and thus
end the dilemma in which German trade and in
dustry are caught at present. owing To the
uncertainty of future international commerce.
But DR.. M0ller. though a loyal monarchist TO
the core. is nevertheless Liberal, albeit OF the
tamest type, and that would. or course, IN the
Kaiser's eyes, unfit him for the Chancellorship.
He is, besides. not of noble blood-plain DR..
Muller So that would never do. Count Budde
the Railroad Minister has just been ennobled
by the Kaiser: besides he served a high OIL
in the army. So maybe Count Budde will
be the man-who knows? Count Budde is. be
sides, able But leaving all this guess
ing aside, whoever Count Won Bulow's successor
VIII be, he has his work cut out for him. for un-
less Germanys export trade is vouchsafed (by
means OF new commercial treaties or Otherwlse)
for another number of years, and that speedily,
Germany will be in a bad
No country in the world-neither England
France even the United States-has the same
compelling reasons for a maintenance OF the
open door has Germany. Without colonies
that would take up a considerable amount OF
her exports Germany has TO look TO the open
markets of the world TO sell her surplus prod
ucts. For Germany, indeed free trade would De
the ideal condition. Instead OF which her agra
rans try to bolt her doors.