The times dispatch. [volume] (Richmond, Va.) 1903-1914, 1904-09-07
60! !. ON I

Y Sept. 6, 1904 For the Information O
many indulrtng friends, Il publish the fol-
lowing, In reply to "a tier addressed to
me by a gentleman in tho South criti-
icising my Il receptl w publicly expressed
cha nge. Of opinion in gard to the cotton
OF to day do not lead d me to modify my
expectations Of substantially lower prices
for cotton during the period when re-
ccipts Srrn likely to be ( heaviest, and II
think that those VIII o have cotton which
they must dispose Eof within the next two
months will do wisely to accept current
G5'i New York, Sept srd, 1904. &
Dear sir.-1nSreply PARTICULARLY to your
letter received to-day, in wich YOU sug-
gest that my recent change Of front in
regard to tho probable course Of the cot
ton market will eprive me OF all s fol-
lowing, and any ca pacity Of arket lead
ership IN future. In reply thereto Il beg
to say, first. that d o not aspire to So.
dctriment rather than an advantage so
far as 1t affects Spectator money
making capacity. i t burdens him With a.
moral responsibility for other peoples
ira nsactons and renders y IT. difficult for
him to- liquid date his own. So far as 81
change Of opinion IS concerned, I can only
quote you Emerson's trite remark that
.now-minded,. and rs tell you 18th Josh
Billings that :. "A wise man changes his
topinions-a fool never ] reserve z the
right to change my opinions wit bout, how
ever, arrOgating to myself, by implica-ss
ton even, any sperior wise om. q It s be-
cause that ! sometimes see that other
people arc wiser than am, and tfat@I
chang my opinions.
Two zclassest of4facts: SSii$ss ass5
i lro my thinking, there are 81 NO classes
OF facts which the spcculator IN cotton
or in anything else must be constantly
in search of-one Is facts mathematical,
which may be slb-diylded into facts abso-
lutte, and facts deductivc. Tho other class
Is facts psycholo slcal, which although ex-
as mathematical certainties IN dealing
with an article. In viii oh tho speculative
public is as enormous as that at present
trading in cotton. YOU must bear inin,lndS
that there arc probably not less thunEtenl
thousand people actively Int crested in the,
cotton market at all times, and in periods
OF great activity this number y largely
Increased. AZ X i9
g8I Re each OF these persons buys or sells
only one hundred bnl les, the demand for
or supply ofgcontracts thus created Srepre-G
sents an aggregate OFF, 900, 900 bales OF
cotton, and is a force that. Is simply
overwhelming In p'repond eranc &c. Once
set in action by any leader, 1t generally
goes to excsI,ses that soverwhclnl him
and carry im9and his following to dis
aster as witness the .Sully debacle Q &
last spring. 1T becomes. therefore, In my
opinion, worry important to anticipate COR.
,rectly, II possible. the impulses which
move or set In action this irresistible
force OF speculation, and 1t Is equally iinv1
jportant that any tendency towards eX-
aggerated opinion and hysterlcal actions
shall DO overcome Gradually declining
prices. 1t was because saw, or thought
7 sa ", that Il gref many people who had
no possible use for cotton, except to re-
sell it. at MI advance. had bought It In
the form Of contracts. and sold out my
cotton OH Thursday morning last, and
Immediately thereafter advised tho public
lofsthe fact, and 1t Is because ! now see,
or think see. that the government rc-
port, issued on Friday. is certain oltrc-
suit In a REIMBURSEMENT of tho u 600
bale talk that ] am unwilling to buy
cotton for mn B advance uni Il q fters some
con, parative decline IN the movement
shall oorrohoratp the reports Of cror,
nSthe next two month and Y therefore,
think my expectations OF GRADUALLY de-;
,cliiing pricesE for tho next two months
il sound. You must boar In mind that
the spinner Is the final arblter OF cotton
values II there were no spindles 70 use
Eit,sfotton would not be WORTH anStnlns,
however small tho crop. II was the vi III
drnwal OF tho spinner hat, plnot.lred last
years. Speculation, and IN tho face az g
report from tho government WHICH 50
cffectiyely negatives individual reports OF
crop shortage, tho spinner Is not going
/ to buy cotton except at what he considers
"a reasonable price, Meantime we are
face 10 face with probably the largest
Sept ember3 and October receipts on record.
and lii my, opinion the fleet Of this moye-
mant,. IN combination with q u probably
slack demand from, manufacturers WI
son amcnt so strong that II would ever
whelm either you or myself, should VIC
attempt Ia oppose 1t, III.
! {sig.) IIiEO.s II, PtlcE A