The Anderson intelligencer. [volume] (Anderson Court House, S.C.) 1860-1914, 1904-11-23

vance. Ihe weather bureau makes no
claim to be able to make correct fore
casts for periods longer than one, two
or at longest three days, and for the
longest period there must be very de-
cided conditions as shown by the
daily survey Of the atmosphere by it's
numerous trained and skiilful obser.
vers. With all the skill and training
by the best talent available and with
as conscientious effort as true and
honest men are capable of, mistakes
will and do occur.
Long and careful observation has
shown that weather changes are not
dependent on planetary influences.
Nor is weather forecasting a matter
of inspiration, but ability to make re-
liable forecasts comes from hard
study, long training and intelligent
observation. 1t is absurd to believe
that when intelligent, scholarly men,
who have made meteorology specially
the world over are in full accord in
their denial of the practicability of
making accurate long range weather
forecasts, that man ignorant of the
laws in which the forecasts are based
and relying on mystical, existing
planetary influences, or on inspiration
which means nothing save an erratic
mental condition, should be able to
make them.
The weather bureau today is giving
the people the best service possible,
but not content with the success al
ready attained, it has in the past and
is now studying every available and
suggested means of improving and ex-
tending the scope and amplitude Of
its forecasts, for both short and long
periods, and should long range fore
casts ever become possible, it will
be through such efforts and not by
the bragadocio methods of ignorant
charlatans who now occupy the field
with their fraudulent long range fore
| casts,
Prof. Willis L. Moore, who as chief
of the weather bureau, has had to
deal with this subject in both an ad-
ministrative way and in its scientific
aspect, recently stated his views on
so.called long range weather forecasts
in no uncertain language, and wholly
in condemnation. In substance he
said that it is the opinion Of the lead
ing meteorologists of the world that
public interests are injured by the
publication c. so-called long range
weather forecasts, especially such
predictions as relate to severe storms,
floods, droughts, and other atmos-
pheric phenomena of q dangerous and
damaging character, and the persis-
tent efforts of certain. men to foist
their predictions on the public, for
public gain, has reached such proper
tions that it is deemed advisable fair
~ and temperately to counteract the
influence of those whom we believe
to be preying on the credulity Of the
public. They may believe that they
have discovered physical law or a
meteorological principle that has not
been revealed to the astronomers,
meteorologists or to any other class Of
scientific investigators, but the publ
cation Of predictions that by reason Of
their absolute inacuracy are calculated
to be positively injurious to agricul-
tural, commercial and other industritl
interests, casting q serious doubt On
the honesty Of their purpose, and
upon their disinterested devotion to
the public welfare. Such publications
bring the science of meteorology into
disrepute and cannot, therefore, be
made in response to desire TO .,ad-
vance that science along useful lines;
and they retard the WORK Of honest
Investigation through whose efforts
only can gains be made in the funda-
mental knowledge Of the causatiop of
weather that will justify forecasts for
q month or q season in advance.
| In circular letter to observers on
the same subject. Prof. More says:
II hope the time will come wher Il
will be possible to forecast tie wealth
er for coming seasons, TO specify in
what respect the coming month or
season viii conform to or depart from
the weather that is common to the
month or season; but that time has
not yet arrived, and ] believe that you
will be best serving the public inter
ests when. without indulging in per
sonalities or mentioning names, you
teach the community you servo the
limitations : Of weather iorecastius
I'd .