Pine Bluff daily graphic., 1904-09-19
LONG RANGE FORECASTS
MISLEADING TO PUBLIC

LAD various weather signs and prog.
nOstics: the red man in his savage
state had his rain doctor" later
came the almanac with its forecasts
OF the weather for the coming seasons. /
but it is comparatively recent date
that meteorology was given a place
among The true sciences. and a regu-
lar weather service organized for tn
benefit OF the public
Meteorology being one of the young-
or sciences is the object of much spec
uiatlon on the part of those who dupe
the public into the belief that they
possess the key to the book of nature
ard are therefore capable of penetrat-
, ing into the mysteries of the future
aGd seeing just what weather will oc-
cur during periods covering as much
as year. The publication aud dis.
weather predictions are serious
menace to public iterests and cast 2
doubt upon the honesty of the author
who claims disnterested devotion to
the public welfare.
The Importance of knowing future
weather conditions has long been ap-
! Preciated by the leading scientists of
| the world and they have carefully
studied the subject, eXhausting every
theory in their efforts to discover
some method of foretelling future
weather changes for even so short
period as a month or even week, but
So far it is utterly impossible to tell
With absolute certainty even two
! days in advance except when the con-
ditions are very decided.
/ The weather bureau is utilizing the
! hest talent obtainable in its endeayor
to meet the requirements of the peo-
pie for whom it was organized. and
contrary to the fake long.range fore
casters, it takes the public into it's
confidence and makes known it's theo.
RES and methods Therefore, the adj
vancement of this important branch
: OF science should not be hindered by
the encouragement Of those who have
absolutely no standing in the scien
tific world.
Methods Of Some "Forecasters."
While the predictions of the wealth
er bureau are based upon the actual
conditions over the country as shown
by the daily maps. those of the so.
called long-range forecasters are
founded on a number of various prin-
ciples One bases his conclusions
upon the records of many years: an
ether claims that the weather is con-
trolled by planetary combinations and
stellar influences; a third bases his
predictions upon the spots upon the
sun. declaring that the solar spots
control our weather: another claims
to be endowed with periods of inspira.
ton during which he devotes his time
to weather making" and wires: just
what sort of weather to expect during
the coming year. There is probably
another class that adopts combina-
ton of all the preceding methods. In
all cases the predictions emanating
from such sources are couched in
such ambiguous terms as to apply
labout as we'll to thunderstorm, hur-
ricane or earthquake. and to one sec
ton of the country as we'll as the
other.
1t is difficult to imagine how it is
possible for any extra terrestrial
forces, upon which many of the long.
range forecasts are based, to produce
q storm unless the action occurs all
over the entire hemisphere. To say
that a storm will occur on certain
day and claim a verifcation if one
should occur at one place or in one
section of the country is of No com
nercial value whatever, for there is
scarcely a day when there is not a
storm in progress somewhere in the
northern hemisphere if not in our
own country.
The commonest force to which
weather changes have been ascribed
is the moon, and this is known TO be
dead and inert body, which imparts
to the earth only a very small part of
the heat it receives from the sun-so
feeble is this heat that the most pow
erful instruments are necessary to de-
tect it: therefore there can be but lit
tie calorc action. The theory that
the moon produces tides in our at
mosphere similar to those of the
ocean, has been carefully investigated
with the result that these atmospheric
tides are extremely feeble and can
only be found near the equator and