The Wichita daily eagle. [volume] (Wichita, Kan.) 1890-1906, 1904-01-03
OLD AND NEW YEAR.

OlD ANU NEW YtAR.
New York, Jan. 1.-The Post says: There
Il no logical reason why the 31st Of De-
cember should mark the division between
one chapter of finance and another. As
matter of fact, it usually does not; be-
cause the date; falling in the middle of a
season is almost invariably followed by
the tendencies which Immediately preced-
ed it. The previous years harvests are
four months back; the next years are six
to eight months ahead. The rush of win
ter trade is past, ard the rush of spring
trade has not begun. Even in the matter
of public legislation, projects have. either
already started or have not yet been put
in motion Money markets are more apt
to converge their attention on that arbl-
trary date, because banks have to tighten
the parse-strngs before the 'end-of-the-
year settlements" and are able to relax
them afterwards; but that is no more true
of December 81 than of June &c. and is
almost as true of the closing of March
and OF September
II the really separate financial chapters
of, say, the past ten years, were set apart
from one another. they would be much as
follows: November, 1899, 10 February,
1895, depression and liquidation, with con-
slant drift toward the stopping of gov
eminent gold payments; February, 1895,
to November 1895, spasmodic recovery,
and swift though unstable industrial and
financial expansion. marked by use OF
foreign capital: November. 1895. to April,
1897. financial uncertainty and caution, and
Industrial economy; April 1897, to May.
1900, rapid and genuine expansion, both
on the money markets and in trade; May,
1900. 20 October, 1900. reaction on all the
markets. partly through fear of political
events, but chiefly through fear as to
whether the boom might not have end
ed: October. 1900, to July, 1901, excessively
violent forward movement, an era of
huge combination, tying up vast sums OF
home and foreign capital; July, 1901, to
September 1902, continual struggle to re-
sist by straining credit resources on our
own markets. the depicting influence of
liquidation by home and foreign capital;
September. 1902 to August. 1908. violent
liquidation by overextended spectators.
syndicates and corporations; August, 1903,
to the present time and probably much
longer slow and cautious recuperation.
There are thus nine distinct periods in
the decade past. no one of which either
began or ended with a calendar year
There is. in fact, no reason why they
should have done so.
The basis for the popular selection of
January ] as a new financial starting
point is partly practical and partly SEN
timental The capitalist and banker. as
well as the manufacturer and merchant.
takes account of stock and balances up
profits and loss at the end of the year;
this seems like closing an account. But
investor. Spectator, and trader also share
In the superstition of the ordinary citi-
zen, that he can begin over again with
the beginning Of the new year, and can
DO so with the odds in his favor. Good
resolutions may in either case come TO
nothing: but they MAKE difference for
. week or so.
/. Considered in the light of past exper-
Hence there is little doubt as to what the
general character of the next few months.
at any rate will be. The public. financial
and Industrial has been taught lesson
which always comes to a community
which has believed itself on the verge
Of a grave calamity. which has escaped
disaster. and has escaped il narrowly.
There has been displayed. in finance and
trade this year, weakness and strength.
The community is now in the way 10
avoid the one and 10 hold fast to the
other. But this is slow and cautious
process. usually marked by numerous dis
appointments. premature ventures, and
os Y,lr
the reckoning OF 1905 had not yet been
fully eXacted. But in the meantime each
discovery of mistaken paths. and each
successive clearing-way OF wreckase. adds
strength 10 the underlying position.
So far as the future can at this mo-
ment be discerned. three main influences
will guide and shape the country's iinan-
cial fortunes. in 1904. First, as always
comes the problem of the crops and in
this may be included. in a very extra
ordinary way. discovery of the truth as
90 the wheat and cotton harvesis of
$685. Today the country is in the singu-
lar position of not knowing what its
farmers actually have of either staple
st wholly distrusts the estimates of which
q usually relies, and is. therefore. as
the market for future deliveries shows.
completely at sea in shaping plans.
II the cotton crop was only 100000 bales,
nnd the wheat crop fifty or one hundred
million bushels below what the govern
ments figures indicated (and the mar
kets of the day proceed on that assump-
tion>, then the country has suffered a Sc
rious reverse in accumulation OF wealth
and In prospective export trade. The
public at large does not believe these
We shall learn the facts