The Montgomery advertiser., 1904-08-05

government, the Democrats carried the
State by a safe majority, but that was
one Of the usual swings OF the PEN
dulum. In 1s48 Jack Taylor's Mexican
war popularity gave him New York by
about $4,000 plurality over Lewis Cass,
a real statesman. Then in 1852, when
the comparatively unknown Pierce ran
against Winfield Scott, another Next
can war hero. the Democrats turned
New York over with a plurality Of u.s.
600 for Pierce.
But one of the greatest surprises Of
those earlier days was in 1855. The
newly organized Republican Party
nominated John c. Fremont, a man
with little capacity or claims, while
the Democrats put up James Buch-
anan. who was one OF the most promi-
nent and we'll known men in the
Union. and a man of real capacity, at
| least SO far as experience in states
manship was concerned; but for all
that, Fremont's plurality reached the
| 900. True, the candidacy of Willard
Fillmore. the Wing leader, cut down
the Democratic vote very considerably,
but Fremont would have carried the
State anyhow. even II there had been
but two candidates.
Owing to divisions in the Democratic
ranks caused by the candidacy of
Douglas and Breckenridge, Lincoln
carried the State in 1860 by 10000, very
much to the surprise of Democratic
politicians. And yet, in 1854. when 1t
might have been supposed that the war
sentiment would have controlled all
Northern States, Lincoln had plural
ity of about 1000 only.
Since the War 1t has kept up its rep
utation for uncertainty with cheerful
consistency. In 1868 Grant carried 1t
against Seymour one of the States
favorite sons. and repeated the job
with still greater emphasis in 1872.
Then in 1876 1t reversed itself by CIV
ing Tilden a plurality of $4,000, but
again reversed itself four years later
and went for Garfield against Han
cock. Then the State went for Cleve-
land in 1884, for Harrison in 1888, and
again for Cleveland in 1892. OF course
II went for Mckinley in 1896 and 1900,
for no sane person could have expected
different result. McKinley's plural
ity in the former year was 26S,000, in
round numbers, and $4,000 in 1900.
The cause of these large pluralities
was plainly understood, and was in no
sense an evidence of the relative
strength of the two parties.
From these figures 1t will be seen
that the Democrats have carried the
State in six Presidential elections. be-
ginning with 1910. and the opposition
has carried 1t ten times. Had the
Democrats remained firm and true to
Democratic principles. and nominated
strong men in 1896 and 1900. there Is
no reason to doubt that they would
have carried the State both times. and
then the score would have been eight
and eight. But leaving out all specu-
lation as to what might have been. the
results given show the shifting vote of
the biggest State in the Union. There
Is no good reason for doubling that
the State will again reverse itself this
year and go for Parker by good
plurality. That is to be expected, and
great will be the surprise If the Dem
ocrats are not successful. Each Party
has nominated a home man. 1t is true,
but all the indications favor the Dem
ocratic ticket. and we can hardly con-
ceive OF anything that will give the
State to Roosevelt. Such a result
would be calamity to the Democrats
and to the country, for we expect the
election to be decided by the vote of
New York. and If Parker loses 1t, the
Democrats must bear all the blame.