Ottumwa tri-weekly courier. [volume] (Ottumwa, Iowa) 1903-1916, 1904-07-05
MARKET CONDITIONS ARE NOW
CHARACTERIZED BY THE usu.
AL HOLIDAY INERTIA.
cLEWs IS OPTIMISTIC
Veteran Trader Sees Good Prospects
for the Coming Summer and Autumn !
Because of Confident Undertone and
the Promise of Good Crops.
(BY HENRY cLEws.,

New York, July A. - Holiday inertia
overhangs the stock market. With
three days cessation of business In
prospect there was a natural indisposi-
tlon to take up new commitments until
the regular routine is resumed I'M
portant events, 1t must be remembered,
are likely to shortly occur at the seat
of war in the East. which would exer-
else far-reaching effect on the Eu-
ropean bourses. Again, only three years
ago business was resumed after, the
holidays to find the corn crop blasted
by heat and drouth. This Is not like
ly to happen again at the same date, but
such remembrances induce caution. In
few days, also, the st. Louis conven.
tion will take place and the opposition
candidate chosen. This event is not
likely to go off SO smoothly as it's pre-
decessor at Chicago, and the probabil-i
ity of more or less exciting discussion
acts as a check upon stock market
activity. Still another element, and
the most important element of all, Ia
the crop question So far crop pros
poets are quite satisfactory, the prom.
ise being above the average. This de-
velopment is, of course, imparting q I
much more hopeful feeling in business
circles, which has already been re.
fected in the stock market In fact.
1t is a question whether or not this adj
vantage has not been sufficiently dis
counted for the present. Unfavorable
developments, from which escape can.
not yet be assured, are quite possible,
and itis unlikely that the season will
go on without some setbacks, the chief
advantage now being that wheat, corn.
cotton and other crops have reached
state of maturity where's 1tissy are< bet.
ter able to withstand injury Crop
prospects are certainly encouraging,
yet there is danger in being too opti-
misttc.
Monetary Conditions Favorable. /
The monetary situation is conspic-
uously favorable to stocks, since the
latter yield much better returns than
money and are relatively in smaller
supply. Bank reserves are now at
the highest point in many years and
the crop demands which will soon be-
gin are likely to drain this centre less
than usual, because interior centres
are also well supplied with funds. The
largest demands are likely to come
from the south, where funds are less
abundant than at the west; but cotton
is much cheaper than year 60, and in 4
consequence the movement to market
may be slower than last years sug-
gesting less active and somewhat
backward flow of currency with the
SOUTH compared with last year. Corn,
the most important of all crops ap-,
pears to be doing fairly well and re-
covering early backwardness. In the
business world a more hopeful feeling
prevails; clearing house returns show
smaller decreases and the declines in
railroad earnings are less marked than
few weeks ago. The single excep-
tion perhaps Is the iron trade which
has not yet recovered from the reac-
ton of 1903 Prices of raw iron and
steel declined considerably but finish
| ed products have not fallen cores
pondingly and buyers naturally hold
off for lower figures. A good many
| iron and steel products are subject to
pool control and it is the hold-up poll,
cy of the latter that is largely respon-
! sible for dullness in the iron trade,
although demand, especially for build
! ing and railroad material, has greatly
1 shrunken
| Confident Undertone.
| Among financial leaders confident
undertone prevails. The first sign OF
real Improvement is good demand for
securities from investors. This is still
in evidence in regard to bonds and as
soon as doubts regarding the elections
! the crops and the war are cleared up
the stock market is likely to exhibit
increasing activity and strength. Gen
orally speaking the summer is peri
cd of quiet owing to the absence of
many operators on vacations, ETC., but
the cable and the telegraph bring all
in easy communication when condi-
tions warrant. If circumstances fay-
or July and August may witness q
widening stock market though New
York is hardly likely to finance Wig
orous bull campaign unless warranted
| by good crops.