Ottumwa tri-weekly courier. [volume] (Ottumwa, Iowa) 1903-1916, 1904-03-01
ITS WEATHER PRoGNosTlcA.
TIoNs ARE WORTHLESS.
U. S. WEATHER SERVICE is FAMOUS
rs Per Cent Of the Advance Predlc.
tions of United States Weather Blu.
reau Service Come True-Moon's
Value Discredited by Scientists.


lleve that the moon exercises pecu-
liar and irresistible influence upon the
weather conditions, will perhaps put
little credence in the statements of
scientists who declare that the moon
as weather 2rognosticator is abso-
lutely worthless. There are those who
believe, with a faith that is inherited
as far back as their family tree can
be traced, that the moon with it's vari-
GUS changes absolutely determines
and compels even the slightest change
in the climatic and weather condi-
ton. They even believe that the
weather for months and even years
ahead can be determined to a nicely
by a study Of the changes of the
moon and it's various variation at the
time in question.
Meteorologists in Russia have re-
Gently been annoyed by the systematic
issue OF long range weather forecasts
by civil engineer named Demtschin-
sky. The man has a periodical of his
own for the PRONUNCIATION of his the
cries, the most important of which lis
that the moon exercises consider.
able influence upon temperature
changes. air pressure and rainfall. His
predictions appear in that publication
and also in a number Of newspapers.
Though Demtschinsky may be honest
in his beliefs, he does not appear to
be adverse to notoriety. He has al
lowed rumor to go uncontradicted
that there is a prospect OF his being
put in charge of the United States
weather bureau at Washington, One
effect Of these predictions and stories
Is to puzzle volunteer observers for
the established meteorological service
and to paralyze their enthusiasm In
other WAYS, also, no doubt, the cause
of science Is hurt by Demtschinsky'a
utterances.
| Professor Klossovslty, of the univer
| sity OF Odessa, has thus been impelled
to undertake an elaborate review of
the forecasts in question and the prin-
ciples on which they are founded. He
undermines the system itself at O
number of points and finally shows
that only about so per cent of the pre-
dictions are verified. In other words
there is no more certainty of theiI
fulillment than about the result Of tos.
sing up a COIN Demtschinsky is vir-
tually playing a game Of heads and
tails" OF course, when the chances
are even that he may be right or
wrong, his assurances are yalulass.
Under the auspices of the AIpAxie2r..
government the rate of Ref.Ication rs
fully four out or five or over 80 per
cent. Professor Klossovsky has done
valuable service in thus exposing the
worthlessness of Demtschinsky's work.
Not the least commendable feature
of his review Is a challenge with with
which it ends. The pseudo meteor
ologist is invited to consent to plan
whereby his system and his predic-
| lions shall be considered by com
mission of experts. II he declines, his
hesitation will be significant confess
| sion of lack of confidence In his own
| divinations.
!. The truth is, Demtschinsky is far
behind the times In Europe and
| America the idea that the moon con-
trolls the weather has been suggested
repeatedly during the last twenty or
thirty years The possibility has
been Investigated by numerous mete-
biologists of good reputation, and has
been practically discarded. If the Rus
sian engineer who has recently en-
tertained the theory had read the
books Of Sprung, Van Bebber and
Ham, he would have had his eyes
open to his mistake. Several excuses
for a short-lived faith in the hypoti1e-
sis can be found, but it will not stand
the test of application to all countries
alike and for all periods Of time. The
matter has probably never been sum-
med up more accurately than by Prof
essor William c. Davis, of Harvard
university. He says in his "Elemen-
tary Meteorology" that whatever
slight excess OF one weather element
or another there may, be at certain
times Of the lunation,it has no sufficient
value for prediction. In his Judgment,
forecasts based upon the influence Of
the moon or planets ARE no better
than the forgotten predictions of as
trology." Long range forecasts of
practical value are likely to come be-
| fore many years, but the moon does
not promises any help in formulating
them.
Kidney complaint kills more people
than any other disease This Is due
to the disease being SO insidious that
1t gets good hold on the system be-
fore it is recognized. Foley's Kidney
Cure will prevent the deye1Opment of