Ottumwa tri-weekly courier. [volume] (Ottumwa, Iowa) 1903-1916, 1904-08-18
DOLLAR WHEAT.

New York Times.--Whenever wheat
in the pit" at Chicago touches or
passes the dollar mark the event is
regarded much as our forefathers used
to regard the appearance Of a comet
among the orderly and habitual con-
stellations. Statistically, dollar wheat
is not so rare phenomenon as to be
significant of anything, per Sc, except
In so far as at the moment 1t indicates
that the manipulation of the crop esti-
mates has been successful in favoring
the plans of those who are operating
for a rise. From the point of view of
the farmer it means very little up to
this time. He has not much good
wheat to sell and could not get a dol
lar bushel for 1t If he had. Before
his harvest is gathered and he is ready
to market his crop. the price may go
up or down a good many points That
wheat for Immediate delivery in
Chicago went above 81 a bushel about
ten days ago, and since that time has
been maintained at or near that level
by the scramble for speculative profits
on sales for future delivery, is a fact
of immediate interest chiefly to the
shorts. The conditions established in
specializing trading between the in
siders with large capital and the out
siders with small capital are rarely
constant. What is just now going on
in the Chicago board of trade is fore
IDLY described by John Graham in his
letter to his son, as follows:
''The wheat pit is only 20 feet across
but it reaches clear down to hell. And
trading on margins means trading on
the ragged edges of nothing When
a man buys he's buying something
that the other fellow hasn't got; when
man sells he's selling something that
he hasn't got. And it's been my expert
ence that the net profit on nothing is
nit. When 1 sell futures on change
they're against hogs that are travelling
into dry salt at the rate of one second
and If the market goes up I've got the
solid meat to deliver. But If you lose,
the only part of the hog which you can
deliver is the squeal."
1t would probably be a waste of
time to establish by argument the con-
tention that nothing in the statistical
position of wheat warrants the belief
that much of it will change hands for
consumption at or near 81 a bushel.
But if it should it will portend nothing
exceptional or even unusual. There
have frequently existed conditions
which carried the price of wheat q
good deal above 81 a. bushel.
If the present range of wheat prices
is warranted by the fact of a shorl
l1yieldSit cannot very well mean an adj
Vantage to the country and still les:
to the farmer. That could come only
from an export demand so large as te
absorb a great surplus at relatively
| high prices. This was the condition In
| 1898, when Europe's requirements
were such that every bushel of wheat
which could be swept up from the
floors and corners Of American gran
aries was needed as quickly as it could
be shipped. We had that year great
crop-675,140 900 bushels-and at the
prices it brought the country was
largely and Immediately benefited. IT,
however, the shortage was great
enough to warrant present speculation
! on the 81 basis it looks as if we should
not have much opportunity of taking
advantage of a large foreign demand
should it exist, and what the producers
gain the consumers will lose. AS q
matter of fact the range of wheat fiuc-
| tuations during the next six months Is
| largely matter Of conjecture. About
| the only thing we can be sure of Is
! that the situation at the moment il
| largely artificial.