New-York tribune., 1904-09-08
THE rERuOyT ELECTION.

The Vermont election has sent the Demo
cratic card house tumbling. The Green Noun
tain State is ali unfailing political barometer
In Presidential years its September vote has
unerrngly foresbadOwed the outcome of the
national contest Given the size of the Repub-
lican plurality in Vermont il has been easy to
guess the drift of political sentiment in other
parts of the Union. BY succession of expe-
riences a plurality of 25.000 has been hit on AS
the normal equilibrium. If the plurality falls
below 25.O00. Republican chances in the So
called doubtful" States are admitted to be
gravely endangered. If it rises above 25,oO0,
Republican success in these States is held TO he
assured.
There has been no exception TO this rule since
1876 In that yesr the Republican plurality in
Vermont at the September election was %. I35.
In November Mr.. Tilden carried New-Hork.
New-Jersey. Connecticut and Indiana. -Four
years later the plurality rose 10 26,603. and
General Garfield carried Connecticut, New
York and Indisna losing only New-Jersey. In
1884 the plurality fell 10 22.70i. and in Novem-
ber Mr.. Cleveland carried the four doubtful
States. In 1883 The September plurality was
2S,995. Two months later General Harrison re-
captured New-Yor6 New-Jersey, Connecticut
and Indiana. In 1892 the low record plurality
Of 1902 returned and in November Mr..
Cleveland swept the country, carrying, besides
Wisconsin and California. In 1896 and 1900
the Republican pluralites were respectively
3S,391 and 31,312. In both those Presidential
elections the doubtful" Northern States were
carried by President Mckinley by overwhelm-
ing majorities. This years plurality in Yer
mont will probably reach 81 900 exceeding any
hitherto given except in the abnormal first
Bryan canvass OF 1896. Such a showing is as
blasting 10 Democratic hopes as 1t is pro-
nf I-r,Ine
mOnt's vote has lost its singular barometrc
value-a conclusion 10 which even rainbow
chasing Democratic leaders can hardly force
Observation-Disclosures Roosevelt's election in
November is clearly foreshaGowed by a ma
jority in the Electoral College larger than that
given for President Mckinley in 1896 or in
1900.
The Vermont vote so far returned gives Bell,
Republican, for Governor. AZ. .99I, against 16,492
for Porter. Democrat. In September, 1900. be
fore the return Of the Democratic party 10
safety and sanity John Ii. Senter, the Demo
cratic candidate for Governor. received 1T,129
votes to 4S441 for W. W. Stickney, Republican.
The total Republican vote this year will just
about reach the 1900 figures. But the safe and
sane" Democratic ticket of 1904 has actually
run behind the unsafe and insane" Bryan
State ticket OF 1900 Where is that great wave
of safety and sanity which the Parker man.
ayers ana organs nave DeeD taking about!
What similarity is there between conditions
now and the conditions they foolishly thought
they had re-esta blished at ST. Louis-the condi-
tions Of 1892
Our neighbors THE New-York Times and
"The New-York Evening Post" have been in
dulging for some time past In prediction
propheses based on the ridiculous assump-
ton that the conditions of 1892 have repeat
ed themselves in the campaign of 1905. Moth
ing could be more fantastic than such a
theory-a theory which falls to pieces at the
very first test. In 1892 the Democratic can
didate for Governor in Vermont polled 1926
votes, against 3s91S for the Republican candi-
date. IN twelve years the Republican vote has
increased by about 10000 and the Democratic
vote has decreased by over 1000 In Oregon I'm
June 1892, one nominee on tlh Republican
State ticket was elected 10y 300 votes. and
a second nominee was beaten by 100 votes.
In juno, 1904, the two candidates on the Re
publican State ticket were elected by puralites
running over 20opo. Neither in the Far West
in June nor in New England in September is
there the least indication of q return TO the
conditions of 1892" Nowhere is there visible
the faintest sign of reaction toward the color
less. feebly-forcible policies now preached as
"sane Democracy." The Parker campaign has
stirred no popular enthusiasm and awakened
no real interest In the light Of the returns
from Vermont and Oregon the Democratic ma
tionaI ticket if doomed to certain and crushing
defeat.