Daily Kennebec journal. [microfilm reel] (Augusta, Me.) 1870-1975, 1904-12-09
COTTON CROP.
Low Prices for Cotton
Are Now Assured.
A Surplus Above the Worlds
Demand Probable.
Conditions Of Year Ago Completely
Reversed.

Memphis, Tenn, Dec. s.-The esti-
mate of the Department of Agricul-
| ture. placing the actual growth of cot
ton in the South this season at IL. 162. =
600 bales, removes the possibility of
any such prices as have prevailed on
cotton the past two years. The re-
adjustment of values has been going
on steadily for days, most of the SELL
| ing being based on the expectation
that the figures from this source would
be exceptionally high. but the process
can hardly be said to be complete, as
| the figures were larger than even the
| leader of the bears expected. This is
clearly provd by the sharp decline
which followed the issuance of the re-
port, amounting to more than $3.50 per
bale on both spots and futures, and
further decline of Monday. The fig
| ures are SO large as to give spinners all
the assurance they want that there
| will be plenty of cotton, not only for
| supplying current requirements, but
also for building up their reserves,
| which have ben allowed during the
| past few years of comparatively small
crops to run abnormally low. 1t is
| therefore hardly to be expected that
they will make any serious effort to
anticipate their requirements unless
there should be some development sug-
| costing that the government estimate
is entirely too high and that the actual
| yield is considerably below the in
| dictated level.
| The hope of the planting interests
| has lain in the expectation that gov
eminent figures would not confirm
bearish estimates issued recently, bu;
| this hope is rudely shattered. The
| blow is severe to holders Of spot cot
ton in the South. whether representing
actual growers or other interests which
have purchased cotton for speculative
purposes. They have been so per
sistent in their belief that the crop
would provo only moderately lar:7''
that the holding process has been car
ried to an unusual extent, especially
the past two weeks, during (which spo,
| business has been exceptionally small.
| II was commended that the Selling
movement had been carried too far ana
that a reaction was due. The report
however. effcctually dissipates TINS
idea. and it is expected that spot hoiu-
ers will try to extricate themselves
from their uncomfortable and uhteh-
able position by dispOsing OF cotton as
RAPIDLY as possible.
II is regarded as possible that the
estimate of the department may be TOO
high. but for trade purposes it must
no accented as correct. The govern
mcnt has been unusually succesSful III
;ts estimate of cotton production loi
tho mast three years and has lmpuco
.ba generality of the trade with conn
1apce in its information. Thus, II
Ice little difference whether spot
hoI1ars accent the report at its tui'
face value. since, as a market l'''u
800 8, &c as nowerful as if the trade
aa,,, knew that the actual growth Il
,,.,,a &c indicated. Hence the dls-
nosition of spot holders to claim t"a'
the figures are too high can 500,
ford relief. as it will take se'N'
months to get any definite PROOF Vi inc
fact, even if it should COME =,
The only other important phase
the situation now is the extent =. $500,
consumption of cotton. Inc pS;
- ,t,a world have never used anything
like 10000 600 bales in single seas
and It remains to be seen "ne'ne' ' ~
|
sninring capacity of the worlo - a' ~
highest pitch in history. But ''ie -
d, number of mills in Canada ai'"
East which are not running anu -, 60,
others that are not, ruiiliins
t;ue with the result that tie
mum capacity is not no"
Whether reduction in the cos. vi
material will be sufficient i'ouc
10 enable them all to run aeahi a
onerate at profit is OF vast i'''''ie,.
snot interests of the SOUTH do Ia.
hone of better values must co'ie ~ -, -.
wav. For this reason there WI.
close attention paid duflhs 'hv
J fav weeks to the attitude ol i'ih'1
ward actual cotton. 1helr p"'
,v;ll reflect in some measure ''ie
of their takings and VIII give sun.
dax of their needs. AL the s'li.,e
lower prices of raw materEai VII, -,
cotton to enter into the niilui"e -,
.>,.aducts which have been mace VI
some substitute during inc pas' wv &c.
.L.oa vears of relatively high values
, though the decline has Tot yet so.e 20
enough 10 make this feature pro''',i'e'.
Tho American Cotton Manutact"'. :.
unfinished at Charlotte. N. T.. says n 81
tic Ia of issue tnat ttoP VI A-'o
h.,es is not too large. and w. +. Brow
~ Nov orleans estimates that the COR nr
s,,mntiou will be in excess of ll''oo'Voe
ha1as other authorities have gi'el
estimates of the probable needs o.
summers this season, but these arr
largely guess work.
p,t from no standpoint does th'
situation present much hope to the spo
interests of the South. They nav
Numbered badly in holding cotton. a.
result their punishment is aireaos
large the decline in prices having beer ee.
over s12 per bale from the highest hg
ures, current less than three weeks N az,
o. for January contracts IN Ne"
Work There is some comfort IN th'
objection that, in most cases. the losses
are in the nature of a shortage IN IN
!: returns derived from the crop or I a Gu,
tine down of the surplus of piantin'
;nterests. For this reason there ar
= nt l;kely to be any failures. but TN
:. How is hard, and it will be long tiih'
yTlan