The Montgomery advertiser., 1904-12-24
VIEWS OF COTTON
QUESTION OF DISTURBANCE FROM
 A "BUMPER" CROP CONSIDERED
By TWO Mill Men and one Southerner- How the Spinners are Situated and What They VIII Dos as Looked at by Prac-
 tical Men.

New York Evening Post.
 In view of the wide discussion of the
 effect of the predicted 12,162,OO0-bale cotton crop on the plans of the spin ming industry, the following statements of views should be interesting. The | first comes from the head of an emi-
 nent dry goods concern in this city.
 He said:
 T do not think that manufacturers will suffer severe losses through the drop in cotton. Most of their stock of goods was made up on the basis of 8 cents for the raw material, and 1t can
 be sold today at prices yielding g. frac- | tional profit over producing cost. Of course. the manufacturers toped to l make a much handsomer profit than
 this. and were just on the point of ad- vancing prices for cloths when the
 break came. Although that has been
 denied them, they will gain immensely | in the long run, by being able to keep 1 their mills going, and arrange again
 for a normal business. To my mind,
 the outlook Is very promising for an
 excellent business along conservative
 lines. without the interruption experi-
 enced a year ago."
 | A very well known cotton broker,
 closely identified with milling inter- |
 predicted that there would not be any
 eagerness to buy the raw material even
 at present low figures. This was his
 reasoning:
 l Remember that we have crop. not
 of 12,162.000 bales, ast the Government | estimates. but in reality considerably | above 1S,oo0.O00 bales, so far as the practical working of the mill industry | Is concerned. That is, by reason of the Ion tai aF | land during the last six months, the consumption for the twelve months of | the manufacturing year will be rela- lively much less than in ordinary years. Curtailment of consumption amounts to
 the same thing as increasing the out | put--it means a larger surplus than | there would otherwise be. This sur
 plus bids fair to be very large during
 the coming year. It must be disposed
 of at some price or held The plant I CTS are quite likely to sell, as a gen. | eral principle. If they do. they will
 have to take what they can get "As to the reasons why the public will not increase its consumption of cotton in the near future to make up l for its smaller purchases during the last | six months, opinions differ. but experi- ence shows that people do not make | up for lost ground in dry goods pur- | L.. woman who denied herself certain new cotton dresses. during the last six | months, is hardly likely to buy twice | as many during the next six. She I will presumably buy just what she had formerly been used to buying. Thus | large consumptive demand covering | past period had gone. never to be re- ' called, and will not be made up to 1 any great extent.
 l If the public takes this view, it Is ! easy to see why the spinners will pur-
 sue a waiting policy and not rush in | to buy the raw product. If foreign
 mill owners have bought considerable at higher prices it seems likely that if | they intend to average the cost by | buying more they will wait until prices
 have had a good chance to readjust themselves to new conditions In re- | gard to the Fall River situation, I do
 not take so hopeful a view ss some about a possible settlement of the strike. Both sides are obstinate.
 Hence, we may not get full operations for some time yet. This would tend | to produce lower prices for the staple" | A statement, not without interest, by
 Frank B. Hayne of the late New Or
 leans "bull clique" on cotton. has been | going the rounds of the Southern press.
 The gist of his view of the matter was
 as follows
 'aThe question is if the crop is 12.- | 00O. 900 bales, what should be the legi-
 timate price for what remains unsold
 I think everybody will acknowledge
 that if last years crop and this years s
 crop had both been 11,000, ,000, ten cents
 for either year would have been con
 sIdered the minimum price for cotton I therefore cannot believe that the unequal distribution of 10.000.000 last
 year and 12,00o,00o this year should
 mean that cotton now should only be | worth 1-2 cents.
 The majority of farmers have