Durango semi-weekly herald., 1904-09-29
RoosEVELT's ELECTION is
ASSURED.

Wellman is published as a matter OF
news II is without doubt a true and
concise statement of the political sit
uation. True Republicans believe
they are going to make a clean sweep
and from all information obtainable
this is the belief OF The Herald. but
as a rule readers want something
tangible to base their opinions on
and while the review inclines to chan
ces Tor Democrats in certain states
claimed by Republicans 1t insures the
election of Roosevelt by a large ma
jority We ask every reader to peruse
Mr. Wellman's review:
NEW YORK, Sept. 24.-What is the
campaign outlook? Is there any chan
ce for the election of Judge Parker
over President Roosevelt? 1t is only
seven weeks to the day Of balloting
and these are questions which great
many people are asking. The public
mind shows little or no interest in the
discussion of campaign issues. be
cause. as matter of fact. there are
none, but 1t is tremendously interest
ed in the campaign outcome. In this
survey of the field. based on informa-
ton and opinions gathered from both
the Republican and Democratic man
ayers here at national headquarters
n sort Of consensus of belief as to the
probabilities at this time It is well
to remark that this necessarily must
be preliminary survey. subject to
change later on If conditions change
The Democratic managers do not at
tempt to conceal their belief that as
things stand today President Roose-
welt is the victor. But they talk con
tinually of the revolution of public
sentiment that is to occur before cleo
ton day Whether or not any such
change is imminent is. of course. a
matter of opinion Several weeks ago
the Democratic leaders told me the
same thing and warned me to look
out for an awakening that would
push their candidate to the front
have been waiting for 1t ever since
and am still looking for it, AS yet it
has not come, so far as we can dis
cover. If 1t is actually coming. it is
about time it made its appearance
The time is getting short.
In New York the most expert opin-
ion is that the chances are about
even. Publicly both sides claim the
state, of course They are not expect
ed to do anything else. But privately
both Republicans and Democrats ad-
init that 1t is a very close thing Eacu
hopes: neither has confidence. There
is nothing on which to base confiden-
ce. No complete poll has been taken
by either side. The Republicans have
polled certain counties and are en-
couraged by the showing made. But
where it stands. Both base their
claims and their hopes on generalities
My personal opinion is that New York
state hangs in the balance-from
10000 to 10000 Republican plural
ity outside the metropolis and about
the same Democratic figure in Great
er New York. AS it looks today-su-
perficially-there is no margin for
either side to go on. We cannot know
about New York for several weeks, or
till after the rival campaigns have
made their polls, and meanwhile one
mans guess is as good as another's
/ should not be at all surprised to
see Roosevelt carry this state by
10000 or $1,000 votes and the Demo
Gratis elect their candidate for gov
ernor because of popular dissatisfac-
ton with the Odell regime.
AS to New Jersey, it is admitted
hot tI.. No,
ing chance there. 1t will be one of the
surprises of the year If they carry
the state for Parker. On the other
hand the Republican leaders here ad-
init the plurality is to be cut down
The $1,000 of 1896 fell to 1000 in
1900 and probably will drop to oV,-
600 in 1904 So far as | can learn the
Republican leaders have no anxiety
at all as to 1t dropping so low as to
approach the danger point. Their only
fear it that in the slump two or three
congressional districts may be placed
in jeopardy. Leading Democrats tell
me they really have no hope of car
rying New Jersey, but they intend put
ting up the best fight they can, be
cause their chances are everywhere
somewhat desperate, and the best they
can do is to fight all along the line
Practically New Jersey may be re
garded safe Roosevelt state.
Pretty much the same thing is true
of Connecticut. The Republican feel
quite sure of the state, and the Dem
ocrats entertain only a hope that
something may happen" Since Inc
elections in Vermont and Maine ,ne
Parker people have virtually aban-
doned all idea of making any gains in
New England. Curlously enough, they
have more hope of Rhode Island than
of Connecticut. In the smaller state
Republican conditions are not harmo
nious, and the labor elements show
signs of slumpinug pretty heavily for
the Democrats, not because they dis
like Roosevelt, but because they have
it in for Senator Aldrich. Though the
chances in Rhode Island are, OF
course, heavily in favor OF the Repub-
licans, the voting there will be watch
ed with much interest. 1t would De
queer, indeed If a safe which has
Il Il. Ils H..