The Tacoma times. [volume] (Tacoma, Wash.) 1903-1949, 1904-02-23
by Theodore Salisbury Woolsey, PROBES
sor of International Law at Yale
University

| (By Theodore Salisbury Woolsey, PROBES
sor of International Law at Yale
University
Copyright, 1904, by the Newspaper Enter
prise Association.)
You ask my opinion on the probable eff
fects of a final victory of Japan in heI
war with Russian upon the worlds inter
ests.
This is a big question. The answer to
it is necessarily pure guesswork. Prophecy
is both a fascinating and dangerous
amusement. But perhaps | can indicate
the limits Of probability in a way that may
interest your readers. AT least l will
try.
Now. what does final victory won by
japan mean? Russia will never lie pros
trate before any foe. 1t is too huge. 1t
may lose it's fleets in war. 1t may become
impoverished by war. Combinations SC
dangerous to its central Asian interests
NAV arise, protected by Russian prSoecu
patton in this war, that it win gladly
conclude peace. But the idea that Japan
can penetrate and hold any considerable
portion of Siberia is chimerical At most
then, Japans Final victory" will mean:
On The destruction or surrender of Rus
sia's Asiatic navy. (2) her consequent con-
troll in the Japan and Yellow seas. (3)
Possession of the Transsiberian railway
from Hardin eastward in both its branch
es. (4) japanese seizure of Nladivostock
and Port Arthur. (5) Russian evacuation
of Manchuria.
Should Japan try for more. try to carry
war far back into Siberia, the distance
from her base, the danger to her line of
communications, must speedily set limit
to her conquests.
We suppose, then, the return of peace
with Japan mistress of the Eastern seas
and of Russia's two strongholds. What
will be the terms of peace? Where viii
she find compensation for her costs and
her sacrifices? What will she do with
AIanchuria? And, above all, what will be
her policy in Korea and in China itself?
1t is safe to say that Japan's first
thought will be to safeguard her future.
A gigantic, a subtle, an embittered foe
will always be dangerous. Japan can be
menaced only by sea; therefore Russia
must be cut off from access to the sea.
VIadivostoek must therefore remain in
Japanese hands with so much back eoun-
try as the strategsts may think its safety
demands. And what of Port Arthur
Look at its history for ten years past.
Coded by China TO Japan in 1895 as part
of the fruits of victory, it was reluctantly
given back to China when Russia and
France and Germany put on the screws.
The Chinese believed in Russian disnter-
estedness then, but two years later they
were undeeeiyed. Russia was allowed to
winter her feet in Port Arthur in 1897;
next year she forced long lease and has
been terrifying this great natural naval
base ever since.
Until China 10 strong enough to pro-
tect herself there, Japan's safety demands
that she herself have possession of Port
Arthur as well as Vladivostoek. And to
this China could hardly object, for both
court and people have learned to hate and
fear the Russians.
The greater part of Manchuria will be
restored to Chinese hands, that is if Japan
resists the temptations of empire. To
maintain Chinese sovereignty in Man
ehuria would greatly advance japanese