The Washington times., 1904-05-23
Director of Census EX-
plains "IntercenSal
Bulletins.
NOT EXACT---NEAR SO
Interesting Exposition OF
Various Schemes to Cal
culate Population.

DR.. s. n. d. North. Director Of the
Census. has addressed TO Secretary Cor
telyou a reply to certain adverse criti-
cism Of recent census bulletins. The en-
tire letter is of interest. but the general
reader Of the newspapers will find the
Directors discussion of calculated"
censuses especially worth his attention.
The letter is as follows:
you have called my attention to GER
tain comments and criticisms upon the
estimates Of population published in Il
bulletin recently issued by the Bureau of
Census. am glad Of the opportunity
to reply to them in one general state
ment
Population estimates for intercensaf
years are demanded by the current work
of the Census Bureau; they are equally
necessary in the annual mortality re-
ports of our great municipalities. in the
calculations and tabular presentations of
the Treasury Department. and in many
other directions that at once suggested
themselves. eret0fore these estimates
have been made by local authorities; and
since the methods followed Uttered
widely in different localities. the results
possessed no uniformity. and thus lack
ed the first requisite Of compare bic sta
tistics. This deplorable condition was
probably unavoidable so long as there
was no permanent Census Bureau. Now
that such bureau exists. it would seem
that one OF its first duties is 10 estab-
lish definite. uniform rule for pro
jecting population beyond the date OF
the latest census, and to make the com
putations for the public use.
Fair Estimates. Not Enumeration.
Nothing more important in the direc-
tion Of standardizing official statistics
has yet been done. in my judgment The
Comptroller of the Treasury has recog-
nized the value Of the service of the
census, by utilizing its population esti-
mates in determining whether certain
localities are entitled TO national bank
charters under the provisions of law,
and IL is hoped that all Government Of
fcials who have occasion TO use popuIa-
ton estimates IN Eheir work. will also
make use OF them
These estimates are not i'm any sense
a census. nor are they based upon an
Investigation of the peculiar local con
ditions which may affect individua
cases. This fact is an answer to the
criticisms coming from cities which ad-
duce various reasons for asserting that
their rate OF growth in population since
1900 has been in excess Of that fndica ted
Each estimate rests upon an hypothe-
sis. sufficiently accurate for most sta
tistical purDoses-the hypothesis that tho
annual Increase OF population since 1896
IS ore-tenth OF the total increase from
1890 10 1900 as established By censu.
enumeration. In only one class Of cases
has the census deviated from a stric
adherence TO this hypothesis and en-.
deavored TO make allowance for dis
turbing local factors. These are tn,
cases I'm which growth has been affected
by annexation Of new territory. either
before or since the census Of 1900. Wher,
such anneXations have occurred. theil
effect upon the population has been care
fully calculated. after correspondence,
with the local authorities city engineers
mayors. assessors. etc.
"In all well settled communities th,
hypothesis is found 10 come remarkabl,
Gloss 10 the actual TACT. when tested b,
similar computations based upon tn
growth in previous census decades. Fo
such communities the estimates ca
safely be accepted in preference 10 cal
culations based upon directory canvass
es. school canvasses. Increase Of post
CONTINUED on Second Page)