Staunton spectator and vindicator. [volume] (Staunton, Va.) 1896-1916, 1904-05-27
In REGARD to Weather Predictions.

while in Elkins, w. Va, last week a
tending the sessions of Lexington Pre-
bytery, and being interested in tn
work of the weather bureau, called a
the Office there and was handed th
following circular which will inJeres
many of our readers. 1t Is in regar
to the long range weather forecasters
Washington, D. e.
Official in Charge,
| U. 8. Weather Bureau Office,
| Elkins, W. Va.
| Sir:-It is the opinion of the leading
meteorOlOglsts of the world that pub
lie interests are injured by the publica
tion of so-called long range weathe
forecasts. especially by such predic
tions as relate to severe storms, floods
droughts, and other atmospheric phe
nomena of a dangerous or damaging
character, and the persistent efforts oil
certain men to foist their predictions
upon the public, for personal gain,
have reached such proportions that il
i, deemed advisable fairly and temper
ately to cOunteract the influence of
those whom we believe to be preying
upon the credulity OF the public. Some
of these men may be honest. and may,
in their ignorance, attach undue i'm.
portance to storms that may, acciden.
tally, coincide in time of occurrence
with certain relative positions of the
planets, with changes in the phases
and positions of the moon, or with per-
iods of increase or decrease in sun
spots, or apparent variations in the
solar intensity. Men of this class find
that for which they sincerely seek,
they mark when they hit and never
mark when they miss" and the occur
renee of storm within the broad area
of the United State s. and, at times,
within much broader areas, on or near
the day for which they have predicted
a storm, confirms, in their minds, the
value of their system of prediction.
They may believe that they have dis
covered a physical law or meteoro-
logical principle that has not been re-
vealed to astIonomers,m s,meteorologists,
or any other class of scientific investi
gators. but the publication of predic
tiOns that, by, reason OF their absolute
lnaccuracy, are calculated to be posi-
lively injurious to agricultural, COM
mercial, and other industrial interests.
casts a serious doubt upon the honesty
of their purpose, and upon their as
serted disinterested devotion to the
public welfare. Such publications bring
the science of meteorology into disre
pute and can not, therefore be made in
response to desire to advance that
science along useful lines; and they re-
lard the work of the honest investi-
gator. through whose efforts, can
gains be made in fundamental knOWl-
edge of the causatlon of weather that
will justify forecasts for a month or a
season in advance.
AS result of my personal verifica.
5ion of the work of long-rapge weather
'orecastere. some of whom have so far
gained the confidence of the rural
press as to receive liberal cOmpensa-
lion for their predictions, am led to
the conclusion that these forecasters
perpetrate fraud and do po-
,itive injury to the public at large. 1t
s to be regretted that 80 many news
papers not only give space to these
harmful predictions. but actually pay
Tor them. Forecasts of this descrIp-
Jon can properly be classed with ad.
of quack medicines-they
are both harmful in the extreme.
| hope the time will come when it
will be possible to forecast the weather
for coming seasons, to specify III what
respect the coming month or season
will conform to or depart from the
weather that is common to the month
Dr. season; out that time has not vet ar
rived. and believe that you will be
best serving the public interests when,
without indulging in personalities or
any long range forecaster
by name. you teach the community
you serve the limitations of weather
and warn it against i'm
posters, your local press should, and
doubtless will, cooperate with you in
this endeavOr.
Very respectfully,
WILLIS l.. MOORE,