Arizona silver belt., 1904-04-14
THE OUTLOOK FOR COPPER
As Viewed by D. Houston & Co. of
 New York

|
 have each contributed its quota to
 measurably vitalize copper market
 movements during the past month.
 The foregoing features constitute a
 tripicate argument for a strong mar
 ket, but the full force and signitinance of these factors have only been par.
 tially reflected in the action of prices.
 If the importance of actual condi-
 tions were thoroughly appreciated in all quarters, a general rush to secure all the copper possible at present rates
 might be expected.
 With so many essential elements of strength apparent in the copper sit uation, it is remarkable that the mar
 ket tendency has not felt greater
 upward momentum, and that the pre-
 vailing tone under the favorable cir. cumstances existing has simply re-
 mained calmly firm, without showing
 more pronounced buoyance. The total advance in market values achieved in
 March was about half cent per pound,
 lake basis, or from l21 to 13 cents.
 This gain was quietly and gradually
 accomplished, small fraction at
 time, simultaneous with the placing of large lump orders, which in former
 times would have been sufficient to have made the market hum and boil,
 The enormous exports are the bank.
 bone of the situation, and furnish one of the prime reasons for the encour- aging outlook. The steady absorption of American copper by foreign con- sumers has been gathering force since
 the end of last year, and the huge ex- port movement Is attracting the great | est interest. With exports and sales of copper by domestic producers dur ing the past month aggrepating prob ably nearly 75. 100000 pounds, it Is as- tonishing that transactions of such magnitude have transpired without creating greater advance. The | equivalent of almost the entire United States copper production since Jan. uary has been shipped to foreign countries during the past six months, and several producers have nothing to offer this side of May or June. Sim liar condition in other articles of mer. chandise would be attended by most pronounced advance and intense in- tereSt If copper were selling at F cents, during period of correspond. ing movements with the present, lack of enthusiasm and hesitation might be justified, but with prevailing pri- ceS in the face of actual deliveries and shipments now going on, the compoS- ure of the trade insconjunction with current facts seems some ewhat incon- gruous.
 For the year 1903 United States ey. ports of copper averaged II ,52l tons per moth; for the first quarter of this | year they average 22,944 tons per month, or nearly double the average monthly shipments Of 1903 During the last year of the Copper Producers l association 1902, when official figures of production were regularly pub lished, the average monthly output of copper in this country was returned at 24 ,63s tons. If the current domes. tic copper production is estimated at | 26,500 tons per month, and imports of the metal at $500 tons, it makes total | of 33,000 tons of available supplies coming forward each mouth, for which | an outlet must be found. Deducting the average exports for the first three I months of 1904 from the abOve-men- tioned regular supplies, there is left | for home consumption the compara. lively small quantity of l0,056 tons per month, against an estimated con sumption for 1903 of fully 10000 tons per month. This calculation shows that. after subtracting exports, the supplies furnished by domestic pro- ductiOn and imports of foreign copper combined and available for use here are about 50 per cent less than the home requirements as based upon the figures of consumption for last year.
 The conclusion, therefore, is that current supplies reaching the market monthly from both United States pro- ductive sources and imports, in them selves, fall far short in meeting the twofold demand of domestic consu mp. tion and foreign exports, thus leaving the deficiency to be made up from whatever surplus stocks have hitherto been in existence. In the past sur plus stocks have to a large extent been a subject of conjecture, but it is evident heavy inroads have been made upon them, and well informed author lties assert that they are now the smallest in years. If such immense as have been witnessed lately are to continue right along, the practical oblltsration of surplus mark. etable copper cannot be far in the dis tance, and if that should actually be- t.al. l l