Arizona republican., 1904-06-01
,HoEN1x. ARIZONA. JUNE 1, 1904.
When VIII Port Arthur Fall?


 The dispatches from St. PetersburG
 printed yesterday morning had it that
 at last the Russians had ascertained
 the Japanese plan of campaign. Thi:
 plan. according to the Russian view
 does not provide for the extensive in
 vasion of Manchuria; Port Arthur is
 the main objective point of the war
 and Kurcki's army was thrown across
 the Yalu, and the battle of the Yalu
 was fought, in order to hold Kuropat-
 kin in check and keep him busy in the
 north while Gen. Oku, with a second
 army of invasion, should land on the
 Liao Tung peninsula and sweep the Russians out of the country that lay between him and Port Arthur In other words, Kuroki, with the first army. is to hold the positions already taken. and is to fight Kuropatkin when necessary. but the really offensive ope- rations are to be by Oku on the Liao Tung peninsula and against Port Ar thur. The Russians, it is said, have reached this conclusion since the great battle Of Nanshan hill at Kinchow, last Thursday.
 These deductions are quits natural; the only remarkable thing about them is that the Russians should have been so slow to comprehend the Japanese plans The policy now attributed to Japan was guessed in this country several weeks ago. IL seems that while Russia has been expecting all sorts of mysterious developments in the Japanese tactics, there has been no mystery about them at all, except as to the landing places of the Jap anese troops. Japan has followed closely, in fact, the strategy she em- pIoyed against China. In that war. as in this, the isolation of Korea, the conquest of the Liao Tung peninsula and the capture of Port Arthur were the three main objects of the cam paign.
 There being little reason to doubt that all operations by the Japanese will now be subordinated to the siege of Port Arthur, the question as to when that place will fall becomes the chief problem for Japan to solve. It is extremely important to Japan that the capture be accomplished without material delay. Each day adds to the number of Kuropatkin's reinforce ments, for the trans Siberian railroad is carrying soldiers to the front in a steady stream. When Kuropatkin feels that preponderence of numbers makes him strong enough he will take the offensive against Kuroki, and pro- ceed if possible to the relief of Port Arthur. A part of the Baltic fleet is to sail for the Yellow sea on the 21st O. this month. The four battleships in this squadron, if they can arrive at Fort Arthur in time. will force Ad- miral Togo to retire CT risk the de- struction of his precious ships, and compel the Japanese to confne their operations to the land.
 But can the capture of Port Arthur be accomplished as quickly as in the war with China? The day after the battle of Kinchow, it was reported from Tokio that the Japanese officials expected Port Arthur to fall 'the sec ond week in June" History has re- peated itself so far, but will it do sol until the end? On the 9th of Novem- Der, 1894, the gallant Japanese stormed the 1ortifcations at Kinchow, just as they did last Thursday, and took them by frontal attack, as in the battle with the Russians. Al that time an ad> vance was made down the peninsula 10 Talien Wan and Port Arthur. From the positions taken up by the Japanese last Friday. after they had routed the Russians at Kinchow, to Talien Wan, or Dalny. is only six CT seven miles, and to Port Arthur it is only about twenty. Ten years ago but fifteen days intervened between the capture of Kinchow and the storming of Port Arthur There is little doubt that Gen. Oku could cover the distance in the same time new. disposing of all the Russians in his' path who had not meanwhile retired to the defenses Of Port Arthur, were his army strong enough to take up the investment of Port Arthur. This is now the uncer- tain feature It is not known how many soldiers Oku has under him, ncr howsmany he proposes to have when he begins the final siege. Some Of the correspondents have said that he will Ssve one hundred thousand men.
 ut'in any event. Gen. Stoessel will sssuredly make a more stubborn re- sistance than did the Chinese, and if the Japanese make the same reckless frontal charges against intrenchments that they did at Kinchow, Port Arthur will not fall until after there has been slaughter.