The Birmingham age-herald. [volume] (Birmingham, Ala.) 1902-1950, 1904-08-24
COTTON.

New York, August 23.-On the End OF
August l advised the world to buy cot
ton, irrospectively of the showing made
by the government report Since that time
the market has advanced a cent pound.
1 again urge those who are likely to
need cotton during the next six months
to ceeure their supplies, If practicable,
on the basis OF present prices. The fall
OF Poft Arthur is imminent, Pacific Inter
Ncnl Oh by the powers will probay fol-
low and the impulse thereby given to
tAe Acrld's industry, and the American
and British export trade In cotton goods
particularly. Will prove the most import
ant since the resumption of specie pay
ment by the United States in 1879. Mean
tina, the condition of the crop Is rapid
ly deteriorating. In my opinion, the con-
dltion is no better than II was at this
time last year. and allowing for the re-
ported increase in acreage the Indicated
crop at present Is hardly over 1000, 900
bales. 1t Is generally admitted that a
moder. te crop will pass into consumption
on the basis of IL cents a pound and
that short crop means a repetition of
last Years wild speculation.
The depredations of the boil weevil
which infest larger area In Texas than
ever before, account in part for the rapid
deterioration, but equally important Is the
insuffciency of labor in the south for
the cultivation of the crop. In the past
fourteen years, the increase In cotton
acreage as reported by the government Is
g per cent. The crop of 1S90-91 was $780,
600 bales. The crop OF 10000 is 10000, 600.
The Increase in production therefore Is
only about 16 per cent. There Is no pos
sible prospect that the coming crop will
show an increase over that of 1890 comen-
surate with the increase In acreage. The
reason for this Is not hard to find. While
Increase N he for
the past fourteen years has been 63 per
cent, the increase in the negro population
or the south during the same period has
only been "a per cent, and In Texas, Okla
homa and Indian Territory the increase
In acreage since 1890 Is 1A per cent, while
the Increase in the negro population is
only 40 per cent. Experience has proved
that under the hot southern suns the ne
gro alone can be used for the cultivation
of cotton, and the rapid industritl devel-
opment ofsthe south has drawn heavily
upon the negro population for labor In its
mines lumber camps and railways. 1t is
probably true that against an increase
In cotton acreage in the south of SO per
cent In fourteen years the increase In ne
gro labor available for its cultivation has
not been II per cent.
These facts, which are taken from the
United States census, point indubitably
the past five years been planting more
cotton acreage than can be cultivated by
the labor available, and the rapid de-
terioration In It's condition now being re-
ported, and which for the past four years
has generally commenced to develop
about this time, evidences this lack Of cul-
tivation. During the early months Of its
growth It needs but little care. With
out care during Its critical period 1t is
bound to deteriorate. II may as well be
accepted in my opinion that the maximum
cotton productive capacity of the south
was reached five years ago and can
not be again attained until the dispropor-
ton between its negro population and
its acreage shall have been adjusted. No
such readjustment seems possible within
the present generation.
Spinners of cotton and consumers Of
cotton goods will do well to ponder and
to heed the significance Of these facts.
shall appreciate 1t II my friends In
the south will continue to advise me by
mail or telegraph as to the outlook of the
crop in their locality. kilograms not
more than ten words In length may be
sent at my expense.
THEODORE II. PRICE.