The semi-weekly messenger. [volume] (Wilmington, N.C.) 1897-1908, 1904-01-05
THE BUSINESS OUTLOOK.

tracts from the weekly letter Of Henry
Clews & Co.. knowing that h letter
will be much more interesting than
anything we could write. Henry Clews
in his weekly letter says in part as fol-
lows:
Next to the trust movement the
most potent influence in the business
world was the simply phenomenal boom
in the iron and steel trade. The world
had never seen such rapid development
before. This was based pricipal- y upon
b enormous demands of American
railroads. which have been practically
reconstructed in order to meet the ire
mendous rush OF traffic which the la
tons growth has imposed upon them.
The big car and the big locomotive ne
cessitated heavier rails, new bridges
and new terminal facilities: SO that
hundreds and hundreds of mil ions were
thus expended. very largely out Of cur
rent earnings, but in many cases, a.so,
by the creation OF new capital issues.
1t is probable that the heaviest por-
ton OF this work has been done, yet
nue. remains to be completed, and
railroads Will be heavy buyers Of steel
to continue projected improvements
during the coming year if prices remain
steady and upon a reasonable level
Another powerful stimulus t the iron
trade was the use of the steel frame
building for office purposes. This
mean a revolution IN office buildings,
and the business centres OF all our large
cities are undergoing a process. of re-
DnEtrrratTn- -rhfnh - <n- <rD~ onno-
plete and was brought to an abrupt
halt my the extortionate demands Of
labor. Here, too. a resumption nay
be expected when more normal conai-
tons are reached. In addition TO these
two great sources of demand the uses
of iron and steel are steadily extending
with the of invention, The
c~heapening OF their cost, and the high
price of lumber. There is, thereto e,
no question about the demand for steel
products continuing active, provided
prices keep within reason; for there
are numberiess enterprises awaiting
more settled and more normal condi-
tons. Last midsumer we were pro-
ducing pig iron at the rate of owe 20
000, 600 tons per annum. or more than
Great Britain, Germany and France
combined. Such a pace was too rapid
to last, and the reaction came with I'M
expected severity in the latter half Of
1908, precipitated of course by the II
nancial reaction, which along with the
labor agitation discouraged al new en-
terprise.
1.-THE next chief uncertainty is the
situation in the Far East. With Rus
clio s+aadi1x, n1shinO her anornanhmpnrS
toward the Pacific, and the certainty
that she cannot maintain her CONNER
cial status in competition with other
nations, the crisis is rapidly reaching
a most acute stage. Japan alone ap
pears to be opposing these encroach-
ments, because they make RusslI "a
close and undesirable neighbor. Upon
Japan, therefore, in case Of conflict
will fall the task of checking Russia,
a struggle in which the United States
Great Britain and Germany are vita.ly
interested Should a trial at arms e
suit in Japanese defeat, enabling Ru =
STA to secure her grip upon Manchuria.
then France and Germany will each ie-
mand it's share Of Chinese territory and
the ACKNOWLEDGMENT of that ancient
empire will be a certainty. No natiUn
has a greater interest in the destiny
OF China han the United States. We
are bound to be, IL not already. the
dominant power il the Pacific, and the
future promises an immense commerce
for our Pacific States. Consequently
no power has an interest in pres II q
ton of the open doc equal to that Of
the United States, although that fact
is not yet thoroughly appreciated by
the American people. The outcome #
the struggle between Slav and AnEo-
Saxon principles no n is will ing to
predict; but Indications strongly point
to an early rupture and war Is sure o
temporarily unsettle the European
Bourses. It's effect upon the United
States would be chiefly reflected from
abroad, or possibly stimulate the indi-
rect sale OF foo products to either bel
ligerent. Both sides are understood %
be well prepared for war; so should
the struggle be short, as many expect,
there would be no heavy borrC wing IN
the international money markets and
consequently no serious financial de-
rangements. Should the war be pro-
longed and other powers involved. the
effect would be marked. but tn Sc con
tingencies are still remote The effect
of a declaration of war would probably
be confined to q temporary decline in
stocks, a break in the cotton ma ket,
and an advance in fsod products. Be-
yond these probabilities it is unsafe to
calculate.
There is just one other cause Of I'M
settlement, and that is the reckless
speculation in cotton. For many : ars
the price of the staple was be ow I
cents-too low to afford many growers
a bare living profit. Today Gotten is
above IA cents, and the public Is f3ir-
ly cotton crazy, very largely bee use
of ex-aggerations concerning short &C.
in crop. 1t is quite likely that this
years yield will equal If not exceed
last years crop, which had been onlv
twice surpassed. In the race Cf dimin-
ished consumption it Is therefore Diff
cult to see how present high prices
can be Justified. The specu alton is a
dangerous one it will be fortu-
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