The morning Astorian. [volume] (Astoria, Oregon) 1899-1930, 1904-07-08
MONETARY SITUATION GOOD
Bank Reserves Are mp to High.
est Point In Years and the III.
naneial Leaders Are Now
More Sanguine.
BY Henry clews,


prospect there was a natural indlsp6'
sltlon TO take up new commitment
until the regular routine Is resumed
important events. Il must be remem'
bered, are likely 10 shortly occur al
the seat Of war In the east, which
would exercise far-reaehing effec'
on the European bourses. Again, only
three years ago business was resumed
after the holidays 10 find the corr
crop blasted by heat and drouth. This
Is not likely to happen again at the
same date. but such remembranees
induce caution.
! The Sc. Louis convention ls taking
place and the opposition candidate being
chosen. This event Is not likely TO 20
OF so smoothly as It's predecessor at
Chicago, and the probability Of more
or less exciting discussion acts as a
check upon stock market activity. Still
another element. and the most import
ant element OF all. is the crop situa-
tion. So far crop prospects are quite
satisfactory. the promise being above
the average. This development is, OF
course. impartlng much more hope
full feeling In business circles. which
has already been reflected In the stock
market. In fact, It Is q question
whether or not this advantage has not
been sufficiently discounted for the
present. Unfavorable developments.
from which escape cannot yet be as
sured. are quite possible. and II Is
unlikely that the season will go on
without some setbacks. the chief ad-
vantage now being that wheat, corn.
cotton and other crops have reached
a state Of maturity where they are bet
ter able to withstand injury. Crop
prospects are certainly encouraging.
yet there is danger in being too opti-
mlstic.
The monetary situation is conspic-
uously favorable to stocks. since the
latter yield much better returns than
money and are relatively I'm smaller
supply. Bank reserves are now at the
highest point In many years, and the
crop demands which will soon begin
are likely to drain this center less than
usual, because interior centers are also
well supplied with funds. The largest
demands are likely to come from the
south, where funds are less abundant
than at the west; but cotton is much
cheaper than year ago, and In con-
sequence the movement to market may
be slower than last years, suggesting
a less active and somewhat backward
flow Of currency with the south, COM
pared with last year. Corn, the most
important of all crops, appears to be
doing fairly well and recovering early
backwardness. In the business world
a more hopeful feeling prevails; clear
ing-house returns show smaller de-
creases, and the declines in railroad
are less marked than a few
weeks ago. The single exception, per-
haps, is the iron trade, which has not
yet recovered from the reaction Of 1903.
Prices of raw iron and steel declined
considerably, but finished products
have not fallen correspondingly and
buyers naturally hold off for lower fig |
ures. A good many iron and steel :
products are subject to pool control
and it is the hold-up policy of the lat
ter that is largely responsible for dull
ness in the iron trade, although de-
mand, especially for building and rail-
road material has greatly shrunken.
Among financial leaders a confident
prevails. The first sign of
real improvement is a good demand for
securities from investors. This is still
In evidence in regard to bonds, and as
soon as doubts regarding the elections,
the crops and the war are cleared up
the stock market is likely to exhibit
activity and strength. Gen.
orally speaking, the summer is a period
Of quiet, owing to the absence Of many
operators on vacations, etc.; but the
cable and the telegraph bring all in
easy communication when conditions
If circumstances favor July
and August may witness a widening
stock market, though New York is
hardly likely to finance vigorous bull
campaign unless warranted by good
crops.