The St. Louis Republic. [volume] (St. Louis, Mo.) 1888-1919, 1904-11-06

Edward H. Bowie. local weather fore
caster, discredits weather prophets, whose
knowledge of meteorology permit them to
'see things months and years in ad-
vance.
These predictions have caused frequent
demands on the local Office of the United
States Weather Bureau to affirm or deny
the authenticity Of storms Of hail, snow,
rain, wind and floods, predicted weeks
and months ahead by these so-called
weather prophets and Mr.. Bowie takes
occasion to condemn these forecasts.
When a man has nothing else to do,
Mr.. Bowie declares, he begins to study
the weathe. conditions. and after a. few
representations, feels that he Is the man
who can tell 1t Is this man who bur-
dens mis- friends with his predictions, as
he usually takes a p~essimistic view of
the situation. seeking in the end the
weather f%orecaster to c~orroborate his pre-
to Mr.. Bowie.
st. Louis has her .coterie. of weather
prophets" as has all cities, towns and
hamlets, and yesterday, Mr.. Bowie fur
nished the following on the subject:
BY EDWARD H. BOWIE,
Local Weather Forecaster.
In the latter part of the spring of 1901.
the local Weather Bureau Office, by rea-
son Of the numerous inquiries for in
formation because Of alarm arising from a
prediction Of a disa strous fiood some time
during the summer of 1901 at st. Louis.
made public a statement refuting any
possible grounds on which such a forecast
might. be based. and advising the public
TO place no confidence whatever In such
Cnscientific predictions.
But credullty seems to get the better Of
reason In the minds of man. people. and
reinsurance TO allay their fears becomes
necessary; hence the foregoing and the
following.
II such person. when contemplating the
possibilities which such sensational pre-
dictions portend. would but recall the
many unconfrmed and the few confirmed
and storm Projectors, the writer is sure
the alarm occasIoned by their utterances
would cease to exist.
The fact, however, hat the long-range
prophets continue to issue their dire pre-
dictions Of storm. hail, food, blizzard and
tornado. apparently losing sight of their
many failures n few successes in the
past. raises the question as to why such
give ear to their predictions.
Is 1t true. as has been claimed. that the
public seeks the SENSATIONAL Or, is 1t
true. as said by the renowned P. T. Bar
num-, that the American public likes to be
h~umbugged? Or. Ia 1t but an expression
Of the public interest In future weather
changes that causes such predictions to
be read with avtdtty by 30 many OF the
thinking public?
PUBLIC INTEREST IN PHENOMENA.
1t is apparent and needs no proof that
the public does take a very great in
.-.zz. l.; x-.,rt,art1 Dbaporooua d,,~fp0
the approaching seasons. But will the
public continue to place confidence in pre-
dictlons Of such phenomena when they
have seen exemplifed on numerous occa-
lions the utter futility Of attempting to
forecast weather changes weeks and
months in advance for any particular day!
The value Of a forecast of the general
weather conditions a month or q season
in advance is recognized by the chief Of
the Weather Bureau and were 1t possible
to issue such a forecast with a reasonable
degree of certainty as to its fulf1llment It
would be done. But with our present
knowledge of meteorology this cannot be
This is one of the achievements which
meteorologists look forward to: and unit!
the physical laws governing this subject
are fully in our possession and the reSmit
of seasonal weather predictions, 1t Is al
Iowable to indulge the hope that forecasts
may at some future time be made to ex-
tend 0eyOnQ Inc IWO-udy ltuIIt NV bSt-
The fact that no reputable scientist
has ever ventured a forecast of weather
conditions beyond forty-eight to seventy
two hours in the future. would seem con-
as to the regard for such predictions and
the standing that their makers have
among scientists
If additional proof u needed, however. to
establish the ~unscientific basis on which
such forecasts rest, certainly the forecasts
themselves give II.
ST. LOUIS WEATHER VARIES.
Applying this test to the system adopted
and used by one of the best-known long
range forecasters, who attributes all at
mospheric phenomena to the influence Of
the ..pienetary equinoxes." 1t is demon
strable that during the year 1904 to date.
he has been successful in predicting st.
Louis weather only on Al per cent Of the
days for which he fo~recasted.
Now, 1 beg you to observe that In every
game of chance, where there are but two
alternatives. there must occur fifty veri-
ications out Of every 100 guesses, when a
great number Of guesses are made, n It
the game of chance is played. or the time
when the guess IS made, IL absolutely
without any influence whatever upon the
result.
So. also, the drawing from a box balls
of an even or uneven number. could v
no influence upon the weather. even IL 1t
should occur to some one always to pre-
dict fine weather when he drew an even
number and bad weather when he drew
an Uneven one.
n. therefore, one should make use Of
the aforementioned inventive method he
should carefully record all the cases. the
failures as well as the vertfications.
SCIENCE VERSUS BLIND" GUESSES.
And then. even IL every second case is a
success-that Is to say, even If he obtains
80 per cent of verifications-he will know
that the theorem or assumption made use