The Washington times., 1904-07-04
NO BULL MARKET
IN SIGHT AS YET
N 0vementSOf Stocks Viewed
i'll the Light Of the Past.
PERI0DICITY OF Blooms"
Story of Activities in Wall Street At
ter the Great Rise
of 1880.

NEW YORK, July 4-There are
Blooms" and "booms," and the term.
like all other Wall Street terms he
comes somewhat indefinite with con-
slant use But when 1t is held down IN
the meaning of a broad and active mar
ket. with the outside public thronginc
10 Wall Street 10 buy stocks, with prices
rising steadily, day by day, throughout
me list, and with brokers borrowing
heavily from their banks to carry"
speculative accounts, everyone knows
what is being described. Except per
maps, for "a week or two in the summer
OF l3u- We nave had no genuine market
% the sort since the crash OF 1901.
elimination of Booms.
That was the true elimination OF the
series Of blooms" which succeeded each
other, growing in magnitude though
with Intermittent relapses from the
hasty scramble TO buy, in 1897, 10 the
great forward movement IN the autumn
o. le9S, the rush of the public into indus
trial shares al the opening Of 1899, the
railway speculation i'm the ensuing sum
mer. ana the final wild dance which be-
gan with The close of 1900 The rise in
prices then was a great tidal-wave, re
spending 10 an upheaVal of prosperity
lar below the markets surface.
Some Of the recent predictions have
seemed 10 fOTeSnadCw another move
ment like those Just referred TO. or al
any rate 10 a return of the public as an
active and heavy buyer. The prediC-
ton may be correct: but il invites some
recalling of the stock exchanges eXpe-
Renee OF the past. What is the usual
interval between these genuine stock
market 'hDOmsr' When and under what
circumstances has Wall Street the right
10 expect another
Booms Thirty Years Ago.
The record is easy to trace, because !
the great bull markets in stocks stand
out as conspicuous landmarks in Wall
Street history. famous movement of
the sort started in August, 1879, under
conditions exactly parallel to those OF
ESD oionged economies, unnoticed
growth OF genuine resources, reform Of
a demoralizlng currency. law. great crops
IN the face of foreign famine and an
export trade OF sucl magnitude as 70
turn the worlds sold I'm q broad and
rapid stream 70 this country's shores.
Checked by political uncertainties IN
lSou-aS II was, later on. in 1SO0-the
outside public took the bit IN its teeth
after election day, and the great stock
exchange boom" of that generation
followed. II ended before the middle OF
LSel-Some people said that the corn
crop failure killed it, some that the
shooting of Garfield did the mischief; /
Others that Iophcavy speculation was /
ready for collapse IN any event. But
most economic critics now agree that I
the great boom had passed. in general !
trade as wei as In the stock exchange /
and that the conditions which created il /
could not return for years.
Bull Markets After 80. (
Nothing akin 70 the earlier movements !
happened until August 1855. when sew I
ecal years Of enforced economy in Il 4
nance had repaired the public's shat 4
tered resources and when the West /
Shore settlement ended a rate war Of /
nesrA tour years standing. This move
mont spent its force within a month; /
IL was not repeated until the closing /
months OF 1850. The singular OutDurst /
OF the spirit az speculation then will /
hardly have been forgotten by anyone /
WAC witnessed ii, the tension OF feeling /
the crowded Wall Street offices. the /
tips which every fcrrybOat companion /,
lad 10 CftrT, the rise Of - points IN I
Reading stock. OF IS IN Louisville, of 30 /
ia New York and New England, of 90 I
in Manhattan Elevated. Of 20 or more I
I'm Lake SHORE, Lack3wanna, and New /
j ork Central
Inls was "a boom" almost without q /
cause except the furious appetite for /
speculation on The part OF a public which I
had pTactsed so long an abstinence. /
The general sltaaLou was not favorable, Z
and IN some respects was rapidly grow /
Ing worse. The consequence was, thai
the end OF the boom OF 1886 was more
collapse Of values n December resemb- /
ling the fan OF q rotten house rather 1
than serious financial liquidation.
Bull Movements Played Out.
On December Il Cthe first million I
share day ia stock exchange history /
call money suddenly rose 10 = Of ! per
cent a day, and In the same twenty-four
hours New England stock fell - points. I
Reading Is Manhattan and -lya wanna !
~ points eaCh-au without any eXplaua-
ton except that the -.buu movement
was played out
Between then and the panic year only
two Cutbursts deserving the name bull /
market came In siEht-the shOrt-lived
stock exchange boom" Of July, 1892
based frankly on a currency imitation I
theory, and the stiu more mOmeutary /
demonstration Of the public during the
autumn OF 1881, when for six weeks IL |
really seemed as II an accident Of ma
ture had permanently put of the inevi-
table.
differences as to Future.
The only very obvious inference 10 be
drawn from this review, as TO the pros-
pect for anoth,i prolonged and enthu-
slastic buying movement in stocks. is
that the interval between such demon
STATIONS grows wider as the cuIminat-
ing point Of a generations boom" be- |
comes more distant. But on the other |
hand the record shows that a public
outbreak Of the sort does occur repeat |
edly even when the country IN general |
8.