The river press., 1904-09-28
CONTROL OF THE HOUSE.
No Ground for Claiming that Demo-
Crnt% Will he Succe%sful.


crnt> Vii, he Succe~.ful.
With its usual pcnchant for exploiting
mares nests the New York Herald has
figured out Il statistical possibility that
the election returns on the night Of
November s will show Il Democratic
House OF Representatives. 1t also
thinks the Republicans may elect their
National ticket and "still lose the HOUSE
~ Il large majority"
1t is interesting to observe the jug
Cling with i,nprobalities out OF which
this mares nest is constructed. As we
House is 1856, divided into POS Kepubli
cans, 172 Democrats, = Union Labor
Democrats and vacancies, the Repub-
expert figures that there are 159 safe
Democratic districts and only 1856 safe
for the Republicans, making it necessary
for the latter to win 80 of the II doubt
full districts to secure a majority, while
The former would only need 3;;t;.
But the Herald is confronted by the
fact that of these n. so-called. doubtful
seats the Democrats now only occupy
IS to SO held down more or less secure
IL by Republicans. Nothing dauntel
by this untoward condition it proceeds
to talk glibly of giving six so-callcd
doubtful seats in Illinois. five in Indiana.
two in Iowa, three in Kansas, two in
Minnesota, four in Nebraska. six in
Ohio, five in Pennsylvania and five in
Wisconsin to the Democrats.
How this is accomplished may be best
illustrated and exposed by the case as
stated in regard to Illinois. The six
districts placed in the doubtful column
are the first and twcnty-fourth. now
held by Democrats, the sixth, ninth.
twenty second, and twenty-iifth by Re-
pubicans. "A considera ble reduction in
the Republican vote in the Statc,' says
this happy conjurer by the hope that
is in it. might easil. result in the elec-
ton Of six Democrats from these dis
tricts.' Verify it might result in the
election of six dodos. were it not for the
fact that the dodo is All extinct bird.
In 1902, which was an off year for
Republicans in Illinois. Martin Em
erich. Democrat. was elected in the
first. strong Republican district. by
plurality of 1,152 but solely by reason
Of fierce factional fight within the Re
publican ranks. which has subsided.
Congressman Lorimer. Republican, had
plurality Of only 9S5 in the sixth,
where the normal party majority is over
5000. lie is not meeting the same op-
position this year. Congressman Rou-
tell had plurality OF los, in the ninth.
His personal popularity alone ins''res his
reelection by an increased plurality.
Congressman Rodenberg had II plurality
Of 2,lj4 in the twenty second. and the
district is good for an increased Kepubl-
can margin. Congressman Smith had
plurality OF 2,3Ol in the twentyGfth,
which is more likely to be doubled than
.educed next November.
or all the Illinois districts mentioned
MS doubtful the twentyfourth. which
Congressman Williams carried by %!
in 1902. is the only one where the Demo
crats stand a possible show in 1904,
and there the strength OF the Republican
National and State tickets promises Mr..
Williams relief from further attend
ance in the House OF Representatives.
Mckinley carried the counties in this
district by over 1900 plurality in 1900.
Thus. with at least six OF the pos
sibilties in the Hera!ds mares nest in
one State added. and with Il like analy-
sis revealing similar conditions in all the
others. there is good ground for assum-
ing that the Republicans will not only
retain their present aScendancy in the
House OF Representa- tiveS but will have
an increased majority in the Eifty-ninth