The Springfield herald., 1904-09-09
CONTROL tF THE HOUSE.
No Ground for Claim ing that Demo-
Gratis Will He Successfu1.

Gratis Will He successfu1.
With its usual penchant for exploiting
mares nests the New York Herald has
figured out statistical possibility that
the election returns on the night of
November 8 will show a Democratic
House Of Representatives." 1t also
thinks the Republicans may elect their
National ticket and "still lose the House
by a large majority"
1t is interesting to observe the jug
Cling with improbalities out of which
this mares nest is constructed. As we
all know, the present membership of the
House is 1856, divided into 2OS Republi'
cans, 172 Democrats, 2 Union Labor
Democrats and vacancies, the Repub
lican majority being "a. The Herald
expert figures that there are 159 snfs
Democratic districts and only 1856 safe
for the Republicans. making 1t necessary
for the latter to win 80 of the II doubt
full districts to secure majority, while
the former would only need 80.
But the Herald is confronted by the
fact that of these II, so-called, doubtful
seats the Democrats now only occupy
1S to So held down more or less secure
ly by Republicans. Nothing daunted
by this untoward condition it proceeds
to talk glbly of giving six so-cnlled
doubtful seats in Illinois, five in Indiana,
two in Iowa, three in Kansas, two in
Minnesota, four in Nebraska. six in
Ohio, five in Pennsylvania and five In
Wisconsin to the Democrats.
How this is accomplished may be best
illustrated and exposed by the case as
stated in regard to Illinois. The six
districts placed in the doubtful column
are the first and twenty-fourth, now
held by Democrats, the sixth. ninth
twenty-second, and twenty-ffth by Re
publicans "A considerable reduction in
the Republican vote in the State" says
this happy conjurer by the hope that
is in it, might easily result in the cleo
ton of six Democrats from these dis
tricts." Verify it might result in the
election of six dodos, were it not for the
fact that the dodo is an extinct bird.
In 1902, which was an off year for
Republicans in Illinois, Martin EN-
erich. Democrat. was elected in the
first, a strong Republican district, by
a plurality of 1.152, but solely by reason
of fierce factional fight within the Re.
publican ranks, which has subsidized.
Congressman Lorimer, Republican, had
n plurality of only 9S5 in the sixth.
where the normal party majority is over
5000. He is not meeting the same op-
position this year Congressman Bou-
tell had plurality of 2,0S3 in the ninth.
His personal popularity alone insures his
reelection by nm increased plurality.
Congressman Rodenberg had plurality
of 2154 in the twenty-second. and the
district is good for an increased Republi-
can margin. Congressman Smith had
plurality of 2,3O1 in the twenty-ffth.
which is more likely to be doubled than
reduced next Noyember.
or all the Illinois districts mentioned
as doubtful the twenty-fourth. which
Congressman Williams carried by 252
in 1902, is the only one where the Demo-
Gratis stand a possible show in 1904,
and there the strength of the Republican
National and State tickets promises Mr..
Williams relief from further attend
ance in the House of Representatives.
Mckinley carried the counties in this
district by over 22OO plurality in 1900.
Thus, with at least six of the pos
sibiities in the Herald's mares nest in
one State added. and with like analy-
sis revealing similar conditions in all the
others, there is good ground for assum-
ing that the Republicans will not only
retain their present asccndancy in the
House of Representatives, but will have
an increased majority in the Fifty-ninth
Congress-