Gilpin observer., 1904-12-22
FALSE PROPHETS
MAKE WEATHER PREDICTIONS

MUCH oama9e Done by irresponsible
Pseudo Weather Prophets.-credu-
Ious People Influenced to Their
Prejudice.
From the earliest times interest in
the weather for approaching seasons,
in view of its bearing upon agricultu-
raj and other pursuits naturally
prompted efforts to predict the wea-
ther. says F. H. Brandenburg of Den
yer in a government bulletin. Note
was made of the conditions that pre-
ceded good or bad weather, and the
temperance of certain conditions
was taken as a basis for predicting
certain weather. To these observa-
tions were added others. such as the
flight of birds, the movement or action
OF animals, even aches and pains of
the human body, and the like. result
ing in the acceptance as true of many
shrewd and interesting observations,
but more that were absurd.
Astronomical phenomena, such as
phases of the moon and the conjunc-
tion of the planets. of all the most ir-
rational, were and are still credited
by some with control of the weather,
Notwithstanding persistent observa-
tions on the part of the leading astron-
omers and meteorologists of the world
have demonstrated them to be devoid
of influence.
In modern times meteorology is re-
stricted to the department of natural
philosophy which treats of the wea-
ther, and Is naturally the most diff
NJ tn -
thus far incapable of reduction to alb
solute accuracy, though efforts to OBJ
tain this end have accomplished
much.
Every effort, in a scientific manner
is also being made to ascertain laws
that will make it possible to forecast
In general way. whether an ap-
preaching season will conform to or
depart from the weather common to
such season; the time, however, has
not yet arrived, but unlimited observ-
vations thus far made have demon
strated the impossibility of exceeding
a period of two or three days in ac-
curate forecasting for particular
date.
1t is obvious that an accurate fore
cast for a particular date can only be
made from known conditions. The
forecast itself is predetermination
of continuance of or change in the
conditions known to exist at time OF
forecast. 1t is equally obvious, there
fore. that If a change in the atmos-
spheric conditions occurs after fore
cast and during the term thereof, not
scientifically anticipated at the time
Of the forecast, the forecast itself
must fail,
These charges in atmospheric condi-
tions are constantly occurring during
the term of forty-eight- hour forecast,
and are certain to occur, not once, but
frequently, during the term of long
range forecast, and are wholly beyond
human anticipation or scientific knowl-
edge.
This demonstrates conclusively that,
unless the long-range forecasters are
gifted with divine foresight and fore
knowledge of these changes, a fore
cast for an indefinite period in the fu-
ture can possess no value, and its veri-
fication is purely an accident, or rather
coincidence. Important interests are
affected by the condition of the
weather, and Influenced by fore
knowledge of it's conditions. 1t is clear,
therefore, that any long-range fore.
cast, impossible in nature, must GER
tainly do untold harm. A prophet has
always and will ever attract attention.
We are prone to look into the future.
Trading. generally for gain, upon this
element of human nature, men spring
into notice from time to time by pre-
tending to forecast. at long range, Sc
we're storms. droughts and other at
mospheric phenomena, thus infiuenc-
ing the credulous to their prejudice.
In the seasons Of the year when
coast storms are of frequent occur
renee, storms are forecast In q hazy
way and applicable to the indefinite To-
cality. In the winter, the time Of snow
and wind, snow and wind at some
place at some indefinite time are fore
cast. At other times, terrible floods
or blighting droughts calculated to
strike terror to the hearts Of the timid,
are predicted. Little things like rains
throughout a limited area, though a
foreknowledge thereof would be Of
real benefit, are not deemed worthy OF
consideration by these men to whom
the mysteries of heaven and earth
seem to have been intrusted. The ter.
ror of mep must be aroused.
Strange to say, when by mere CO.
incidence a storm appears or drought
occurs within the broad confines OF the
United States, the forecast, unaccred-
tied to place or date. is considered as
verified and the forecaster Is regarded
as a phenomenon. The hundreds OF
unverified are buried in oblivion. The
seemingly accurate one is resurrected
and given publicity to the public detri-
ment, by these diligent so-called fore
casters. Vanity and gain are the only
explainable reasons for this kind OF
work, since such forecasts do untold
harm. Almanacs have been published
for more than a century, giving In ad-
vance the weather conditions day by
day for the ensuing year. and even for
a century, always, however. without u
specification of the area to be affected.
A forecast of rain everywhere or any