Evening star., 1904-03-18


perhaps % 600 men in the remainder of
Manchuria-1OOOOO In all. Now that force,
by mobilizing resources and by reinforce
ment, is probably more than 100000
A Russian Invasion Suicidal.
1T is almost too much to believe that
the japanese general staff have been de-
ceived by Russian demonstrations on the
Yalu river and In northern Korea. Proba-
bly, the Russians have only had rev
Cossacks south Of the Yalu river, and all
the furore about Russian advance has
been kicked up by them. 1t would be sui
cidal for the Russians to attempt cam
paign in Korea; they have no idea of doing
1t, and they are merely playing game OF
bluff Look at the strategic points or
Korea: A deep river, range of mountains,
two bad roads along the coast, a body OF
land almost surrounded by water.
Now suppose the Russians advance
south of the Yalu river on either OF
the two roads indicated. The Japa-
nese, having control Of the sea, could
land at any point in their rear, make a
permanent lodgment there; in fact. fortffy
themselves there; prevent supplies getting
to the front, and probably cause the sur
render of the detachment in front.
Bad Condition of the Roads.
''The roads along the coast are the only
ones that could be used by any troops ex-
cept small bodies, and on the best of them,
the western road in the last war. the Japa-
nese forces did not average 6.3 miles a day.
The road then had been recently repaired
by Chinese, but that was ten years ago,
and there has been no recent call for re-
pairs. The size of the force put on single
road was not over 5000 men, and that was
about the limit.
For transport 1t was necessary to take
along coolies carriers and as puShers for
carts. 1t will take two coolies to carry
1000 rounds of ammunition, and a coolie
cannot carry rations for himself and one
soldier for more than ten days The roads
between the two mentioned are merely by
paths.
IF these statements are true, and they
can be easily verified, they have probably
not escaped the eyes of the Russian general
staff. l believe we will find that all this
talk about a Russian invasion of Korea is
based on nothing, and will continue to be so
until Russia regains control of the sea, if
she ever does. Until then Korea is as safe
ly Japanese province as If it were spread
out before the gates at Tokyo.
Not Many Russians in Korea.
Il cannot believe that the Russians are
in any force on the Yalu. There no
roads in rear of that position by which
they could bring up artillery and supplies.
The country is a wilderness and part
of 1t is the neutral zone in which no
cultiva ton or habitation was permit tied.
Soldiers must eat and shoot and a man will
eat his weight in commissary stores in six
or eight weeks. The best road and 1t Is q
wretched one no better than its extension
in Korea, which l have Just described, lies
in rear of the exposed right flank A lodge
ment that road is already reported at
FengHuang by Japanese.
THE only reasonable theory then is that
the Russians either have small forces on
the Yalu or that they are prepared to stand
a siege there. just as at Port Arthur. This
is improbable. because It is useless and be-
cause all the advantage would be with the
japanese The same holds for the coast
at the east of the range of mountains in
Korea.
why the Japs have not cleared UP this
situation in northern Korea by force
transported by sea Is difficult to understand
descent on the coast at the mouth of the
1alu river would not have the risks of a
campaign in the Liao-tong peninsula