The Minneapolis journal. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn.) 1888-1939, 1904-02-08
On the Theory That Actual War
Means elimination Of the
General Belief on Change That
This Breaks May to 917sc, but the
Market Resists Surpris-
ingly Well.
General Belief on Chance That
the Bull Market Is Yet Far
from the Top.

Minneapolis Chamber Of Commerce, Feb.
S.-The old story Of speculative moving
counter to general expectation was re-
peated this morning In wheat. With many
things in sight to cause advance, prices
fall back Minneapolis May wheat, in the
early part of the session, sold from the
opening at 931ac, to 92asc, and Chicago
May fell from csc to 9SBc. There was
flood of wheat upon the market 1t came
from commission houses and from individ-
ual pit traders, from city and country,
from east and west. It was the selling out
of millions Of bushels of wheat by holders
who figured that big setback was in or
der. For months the war situation has
been strained, and for months many a lit
tie Spectator has been carrying along his
bit of wheat waiting for the war. There
is a saying in the grain trade that "a
bull report usually breaks-wheat." Trad
ders have observed that when a govern
ment crop report on wheat Is expected
to be bullish the market usually creeps up
steadily In anticipation of It and when
the report actually comes along break
IS the next thing. When a bearish report
is expected and everyone sells wheat be-
lieving that the government report Of
crop condition will be. for instance, 80,
prices sag off steadily, and when the re-
port IS received and the condition shown
to be fully as bearish as expected or even
more so than expected, at 100, up go
prices. Such is the natural tendency Of
speculation TO discount every LI1IlS dIlu
over do 1T.
A government report in the crop season
comes once a month. But a war PROPOSE
ton like the present one comes once in
many years. Nobody knows how to han
die such a thing. To look up precedent
one has to go back for years, to times
when world conditions were entirely diff
ferent So with little else to go on, the
Spectators almost to a man. figured that
as war has been long expected the imme-
date effect Of the opening of hostilltles
would mean a sc or &c slump, and so they
began on Saturday to sell out, and fol-
lowed it up this morning, and the quantity
of wheat the market has had to stand
against no one can estimate. But to this
writing they have been wrong, and the
market at the moment Is very strong and
to all outward appearances Is tending
much higher. The best men in the trade
here are believers in higher prices, and
some say May wheat will sell at $1.1O be-
fore the option expires. while the ordinary
dollar bull is now common. Wheat may
not, of course go over a dollar out II 1t
does not then some Of the best and most
conservative Judges in Minneapolis are
wrong In their views.
Later in the session came a cable from
Broomball to the effect that Odessa had
ceased offering wheat. This was very
significant item, but the trade accepted it
with some hesitation.
Liverpool closed 9s@Md higher. London
stocks were off and consols LIS lower.
Paris was higher, st. Louis stocks de-
creased 100000 bu last week, and Kan
sas City decreased $4,000. Minneapolis
elevator stocks have decreased 10000 blu
SO far on the new week, against an in
crease Of 1851 in the corresponding time
last year Minneapolis received AL cars
against 100000 bu, Duluth 35 against "a,
and Chicago u against 81. Kansas City
had 900 blu against $1,000, and st.
Louis 1873 900 bu against x, 600.
The decline continued untik Minneapolis
May reached 91Bc. The close was firmeI
at 92as @92kc. July closed at 91% @91hc,
and September at S05sc.