The Indianapolis journal. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1867-1904, 1904-02-07
FRENCHNEN THINK THE
FAR EAST WILL SOON Be
AbLAzE WITH WAR FIRES
NJ. Beaulieu, However, of Opinion
that Neither Japan Nor Rus
STA VIII Conquer.
BOTH IN NEED OF FUNDS
Lack of Money May Cause Them
to Think Twice Before Open
ing Hostilities.
BOTH IN NEED OF FUNDS

| PARIS, Feb. 6.-Pubic attention is riv-
eted on the ominous war cloud hanging over
the far East and for the time being Drey-
fus and the Humberts and the expulsion Of
the religious orders are temporarily forgot
ten. The newspapers reflect the public
feeling. that war is very near at hand, only
the most conservative maintaining thata pa
cific solution is possible. 1t is noticeable
that those having government relations take
a discouraging view. Official opinion has
| clearly turned toward the pessimistic side
| although not yet ready to concede that
the last chance has gone The officials are
however, convinced that Russia will not
| yield to Japan's demands relative 10 Man
churia. so that IL war depends on that
issue. il will be for Japan to make final
decision.
In the matter Of actual news the Foreign
! Office was unable to-day to give additional
information. as it has not yet been officially
advised that the Russian reply has been
sent. The last definite official dispatch from
st. Petersburg said the reply was ex-
pected to be signed and sent Thursday
Since then there has been no, official adj
vice that the reply has actually gone.
In the meantime the embassies and le-
| cations are the centers of unusual activity
in connection with the far East Ambassa-
! dor Porter sees foreign Minister Delcasse
| frequently, and also keeps in touch with
the Russian and Japanese representatives
Other members of the United States en-
bassy mingle in diplomatic circles and ex-
change information with all their col
leagues. Definite results are promptly
communicated to Washington. During one
of these meetings NJ. Leroy Beaulieu. the
eminent author and authority on Russia
| and the far East. was encountered. Being
asked what he thought of Russia's con-
troversy with Japan. he made the follow
| ing significant reply:
I'm the event Of war / am convinced that
| neither party will be able TO conquer the
| other. That is, Russia will not be able to
penetrate into Japan and administer a con-
| elusive and lasting overthrow, and Japan
will equally be unable to penetrate into
Russia and give lasting effect TO any tenn
porary triumphs."
| NJ Beaulieu seemed to base his convic-
| ton on the fact that after the first great
battles the contestants would find the geo
| graphical obstacles so great as to make de-
| cisive hoStilitieS impossible.
DELCAssEE VIEWS.
NJ. Delcasse, in personal conversation with
members of the diplomatic corps. does not
conceal the gravity of the situation, but he
holds that even If diplomatic rupture &C.
break of hostilities. One of the leading
diplomats asked NJ. Delcasse whether he
considered war a matter of few days.
ION the contrary the minister replied, ~
do not believe it likely to occur for
month or two, even should the negotiations
completely fail"
This accords with the view of other lead
ing officials and diplomatsts who hold that
| the FAILURE or the negotiations would be fol-
! lowed by period OF strategic preparation,
OF raising large war funds and of maneuVer-
ing for position. The raising of war funds
| is considered here as being one of the most
| vital questions should the negotiations fail.
therefore leading American official sought
10 learn whether Russia would be able to is
sue a loan and raise more money here He
| consulted with one Of the most eminent fin
anciers OF France, connected with the Bank
| of France, and this brought out some sur
| prising statements concerning the enormous
| Indebtedness Russia has already incurred
According to this fnancier, Russia's four
! loans total the colossal sum OF s, 400 600 COO
| most of which came from France Russia
has now practically used up these loans on
| building the Transsiberian Railroad the
new fleet and internal improvements in the
| waterways. The Transsiberian line alone
has proved terrible drain, the deficit last
| year reaching $4,000, CO. Therefore in the
| event Of conflict, Russia must have more
| sinews OF war and 1t is the conclusion of
the financier from the foregoing facts that
| she is not likely to place further loan in
| Paris, which heretofore has been her chief
| financial reliance.
EACH SIDE MAY HALT
On the other hand, the diplomatist COM
! pared this with the announcement to-day
from Toxic that Japan had succeeded in
securing voluntary subscriptions of $1,000
100000 toward her war fund. THAT would
not run war long," said the diplonatist
With Russia unable to get more money
|
is believed that if a breakdown in the ne
gotiations occurs each side will take a long
| breath before fighting"
One of the officers of a trust company of
| New York city, who was recently here
reached the same conclIsion-that Russia
would be unable to make loan-after he
had personally discussed the subject with
a number of leading authorities on finance 4"
A novel view is taken In a certain i'm
portant diplomatic quarter that the most
| effective means of preserving peace is for
both Russia and Japan TO claim a great
diplomatic victory, thus satisfying home
| sentiment and subduing the war spirit. This
view finds rather serious acceptance at the
| Foreign Office, where the officials say that
If the negotiations happily result in peace
both sides VIII claim great diplomatic
| triumph a means OF satisfying local SEN
timent. This IS given by the officials as one
of the main reasons why accounts vary con-
corning the terms of the various notes as
IL is said that each side has adopted a con-
struction calculated to satisfy its own peo-
pie
One of the most prominent of the Russian
officials here said definite knowledge con-
corning the contents of the Russian reDlv
would be communicated to the world GER
tainly by Monday. This official intima ted
that at least some OF the essential features
had already been made known TO the French
| government He recognized that war would
not be popular in Russia. because If the
! distance from the scene of the conflict and
the unfamiliarity of the Russian people re-
/ garding the situation. At the same time
the official said: War can be avoided if
Japan is willing. for substantial concessions
| have been made, upon which the negotia-
tons can continue. Russia is prepared for
eventualities and rupture of the negotia-
tions. not as ostentatiously as Japan, but
none the less effectively
When the Japanese legation was visited
! to-day humber Of contractors were i'm the
ante-roon waiting for an opportunity to Of
fer war material. Among yesterdays call
ers at the japanese legation was the Brit
| ish ambassador. Sir Edmund j. Monson
who remained for long time in conference
| with the minister.
| CHARGES AGAINST