The Minneapolis journal. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn.) 1888-1939, 1904-10-15
u Unprecedented Wheat Situation.

Never has there been a time in the
history of the grain trade when condi
tons, relative to the price of wheat and
the marketing Of this cereal, were quite
the same as at present. The old, long
established lines Of crop distribution
have been SO broken up that every few
days brings to light some extraordinary
movement Of wheat, or other phase Of
the situation, putting precedent at
naught. - ~
Yesterday, for instance, local millers
were figuring upon bringing Manitoba
wheat, duty paid, into Minneapolis, and
were within about three and one-half
cents of working basis. A small lot
was reported actually sold to come to
Duluth.
Here is, indeed, remarkable state Of
affairs. Wheat is moving into Ameri-
can markets in volume well in excess
of a year ago, stocks are finally begin
ming to accumulate and Minneapolis
gained 1,157,562 bushels this week.
The world visible supply is increasing,
in one recent week gaining 100000
bushels, and other statistical items are
against strength. The outlook is for a
continued heavy primary movement, es-
Pecially into this market, and senti-
ment on the part of some of the largest
firms in the trade is conservative as to
price maintenance. Yet the market
shows great resilieney and prices spring
up from every depression with such
force that Minneapolis is up to point
where the import tariff of 25 cents a
bushel is almost wiped out by the price
difference, and on any further material
advance, America, formerly the world 8
greatest wheat exporting country,
might be importing Manitoba wheat in
quantity.
With conditions so mixed that the
best men in the trades, some of thirty
years. experience, confess themselves
unable to get decisives grasp upon the
future price situation, prediction must
be rather daring.
Nevertheless, it would appear that
unless some new and unforeseen factor
is to arise on the bull side-as, for in
stance, damage to the Argentine crop
the present price level is as high as is
warranted at this time. With Ameri
can visible stocks moderate and the
contract grades scarce, bull speculation
might yet do much with it, but legiti
mately, it would seem that price:
should recede little, at least, until the
actual American supply situation be
comes clearer
The high prices have done much fol
the prosperity of the northwest, and un
like the over-manipulated cotton mar
ket of recent experience, or the Letter
wheat corner of six years ago, the pres
ent bull market has not demoralized thu
manufacturing industry dependent upo1
it, altho trade has been somewhat dis
turbed. This is because in the presen
instance high prices are due, in create
part at least, to legitimate causes
crop losses at home and in Europe.
At bottom the situation, for a lon,
look, is bullish. There is, however, as il
everything, limit to safety. An,
price that we can do business on is
:, legitimate price, and so long as we ca,
mill our wheat and sell our flour, and
, meanwhile, know it as extremely I'm
likely that a large wheat surplus will
accumulate, there is safety. But we ar
getting to a point where this may no
continue.
The world has less wheat this yea
3 than last, and some day-unless a hi
: Argentine production shall ordain i
2 otherwise-prices higher than any we
3 recorded on this crop may be seer
q Meanwhile, however, we are still in tn
| business of selling flour and wheat t
Q the world, and Notwithstanding all on
J. crop losses we shall have some surplu
: to sell again this year. And if we re
fuse to do business now on parity wit
: other countries that are our competitor
: and hold out for the last farthing, W
' may defeat our own ends in the lon
e run.
e In 1901 the total value of corr
:, wheat, oats, barley, rye, buckwhea
e and other cereals, cotton and hay,s pre-
e duced in America reached the stupenc
e GUS total of $2,720,000,00O. In 1902
: was $2,7S4,000,000 and in 1903 abou
e 100000. This year, despite on
: losses in some crops, we have a gran
i total valuation probably the largest i
g our history, or close to $4,000, 0OO,OO(
s Here is basis for prosperity that notl
n ing can destroy. No harm can com
t upon us unless we bring it ourselves
V we will overdo the bull stock marke
s now on in Wall street, or in some othe
g way go into an excess that will reac
upon us finally. -. =
n There is no state Of mind more immor
n than the one that leads man to vote tt