Middlebury register. (Middlebury, Vt.) 1886-1937, 1904-11-18
Lons-Ranae Weather Forecasts.

Long range weather Forecasts.
The weather, since the Creators decree
after the deluge "while the earth re-
maineth, the seedtime and harvest, cold
and heat, and summer and winter, and
day and night shall not cease" has been
a subject of perpetual interest. 1t will
ever remain SO, for the vast agricultural
and other industries, the extensive COM
mercial and marine interests, and, in
fact, the daily affairs of man are so ma
terially effected by the constantly chang
ing weather. Miscalculations with re-
gard to severe storms, to droughts, and
temperature changes, often entail heavy
losses. Since the weather follows i'm
mutable laws which man cannot change,
and the manifold and valuable interests
of man require for their successful pros
ecution knowledge of the weather now
prevailing and that which may be ex-
pected in the future, Congress, in Feb
ruary, 1870, enacted laws for the estab-
lishment of a National Weather Service.
And today the United States leads the
world in practical meteorology. Its
forecasts and storm warnings are based
on scientific observations taken by
trained and experienced observers, and
are the deductions and opinions of able
scientists and meteorologists, and are,
therefore the best obtainable While the
forecasts are far from perfect and leave
much to be desired, they are sufficiently
accurate to be of incalculable value.
With the facilities at hand, and in the
light of our present knowledge of mete-
orology, there is nothing on which to
base forecasts for periods exceeding two
or three days. And, while there is a
great demand, and much need of long
range forecasts, that is, forecasts for
month or a season, the time is not yet at
hand, the science of the weather not
sufficiently developed, to render them
possible Notwithstanding these facts
there are persons who, realizing the ur-
gent need of forecasts for an extended
period, take advantage of the same, and
it is not uncommon to read in some of
the newspapers from time to time fore
casts of a great storm for a month in adj
vance, and for the weather conditions of
a whole season. Unfortunately, casual
readers and they are numerous, and fire.
quently, the well-informed, attribute
these fake forecasts to the Weather
Bureau, as is well known by the expe-
rience of the officials at numerous sta
tions of the Bureau. The National
Weather Service is thereby brought into
great disrepute, and many persons
greatly Inconvenience and probably
subjected to monetary or other loss of
much value.
With regard to the accuracy of these
long range forecasts, the Chief of the
United States Weather Bureau has
stated, as follows:
GAS result of my personal vertical
ton of the work of long-range weather
forecasters, some of whom have so far
gained the confidence of the rural press
as to receive liberal compensation for
their predictions, 1 am led to the con-
clusion that these forecasters knowingly
perpetrate fraud and do positive injury
to the public at large"
The Government Weather Department
has able men engaged in its work, and as
soon as forecasts and warnings for more
extended periods are possible, and there
is much to encourage a hope for i'm
proved service, the public will be duly
informed and receive the benefit thereof.