The St. Louis Republic. [volume] (St. Louis, Mo.) 1888-1919, 1904-02-28
American Official Explains That
Sultan Has Little to Gain and
Everything to Lose.
BULGARIA WOULD BE BEATEN.
Russia's Baltic Squadron Could
Not Reach Japan, Even if
England Should Let 1t
Pass the Suez Canal.

Paris. Feb. 27.-An American official,
who. for two years past, has been study
| ing the conditions in the Balkans. has
just arrived in Paris. and to-day made an
interesting statement of the situation. He
said:
81 am satisfied Turkey will not declare
war. She has been informed by the Pow
ers that, even If she does engage in hos
%tilities. she will gain absolutely no result
therefrom, and even may suffer from a
| military occupation by the overs. and
that, perhaps. this may result in the sep
aration Of Macedonia from the Turkish
Empire.
ut is true that Turkey is sending re-en-
forcements to Macedonia. but this is due
to the prospect of an outbreak of an
other instruction and possible interior
ence on the part OF Bulgaria, now that
Russia is occupied with Japan, but the
Sultan has everything to lose and little
to gain by war, and If it comes. you may
depend upon 1t that Bulgaria viii be the
aggressor.
BULGARIA MIGHT LOSE.
Should wal come 1 am satisfied that
Bulgaria will be beaten. Operating in the
mountains, where a few men can pick
off a whole regiment, the Bulgarians and
insurgents a a distinct advantage. But
the Turkish troops Ear sweep them
around toward Sofia, where the country is
level.
Bulgaria claims she Is able to put
aO0,M 900 men in the field. The Turks can
quickly throw double that number into
Macedonia and re-enforce them if neces-
sary.
1T has been said that Russia and Tur-
key are discussing the question of the
passage Of the Dardaneiles by the Rus
sian Black Sea fleet. Turkey would not
give her consent If asked, unless she
gained some concessions in the Balkans,
such as dealing with Bulgaria as she
saw fit. But Russia could not maks such
a concession because she would thereby
forfeit the preferential position which
she and Austria hold in consequence of
having been designated by the Powers to
act as their representatives in dealing
with the Balkan question.
Moreover. Russia understands that if
she ceased to be a representative of the
Powers other Powers would intervene.
But, granting that Russia may take this
risk and induce Turkey to permit the
passage OF her fleet, this would be a viola
ton of the Berlin treaty. of which Great
Britain is a signatory Power.
DANGER FROM ENGLAND.
1T would mean. furthermore, that Tur-
key and Russia had entered into an under
standing which might be Interpreted as
bringing into play the Anglo-Japanese al
lance. Aside from this latter point, there
hardly Is n question that Russia would
find British ships blockadinS the Suez Ca
nal and the Straits of Gibraltar.
FINALLY, the Black Sea fleet has been
greatly overrated. 1t was examined a
short time ago by an American naval Of
fcer. who reported it not in very good
condition. and that. in any event, it was
of no use for oversee operations, in con-
sequence of the small coal capacity Of the
vessels composing it. The latter had
been constructed simply for operations in
the Black Sea. and not for service In the
far East. Their mi are entirely IN
adequate to permit their making a trip
to China or steaming any long distance"