New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1904-04-11

The Census Bureau has Just issued bulletin
giving the estimated population in 1903 of 43S
American cities. Coming from the experts
who tabulate and analyze the population returns
gathered decennially. the figures just published
are likely 10 carry considerable authority BY
many readers they Will be accepted as measur-
ing the real growth Of urban population since
1900. Both the communities whose expansion
they minimize and the communities whose eX-
pansion they exaggerate viii be disposed 10 take
them az face value. Municipal pride in the one
case is likely to be unduly exalted. and in the
other unduly abased.
Looked at closely. the figures announced Will
be seen TO justify neither local jubilation nor
local discontent They are based not on obser-
walton, bur on mathematical speculation. They
show not what the actual growth Of any city
has been since $780, but what its growth ought
to have been II II has maintained the annual
rate Of progress il averaged between 1890 and
1900. As the makers Of the bulletin expressly
say. their calculations assume that the annual
increase FOR each year since the last census
will be 0ne-tenth of the deceunal increase be
''tween the last two censuses" On this easy and
comfortable theory the Census Bureau matle-
maticians figure out that New-Yor s population
has grown from 3437202 in 1909 10 3.71G.l39 in
1903 Chicago has made a bigger relative jump,
showing an increase from 1.G9S.575 10 1.sI3 $50
Philadelphia maintains fits much more moderate
pace. growing in population IN three years from
1.293697 10 1.3S7. $50. And on down the line
three-tenfhs Of the total increase from 1890 10
1900 is added impartially 10 each city having a
population Of 10000 or over.
But the viciOusness OF this method Of enumer-
alton is evident In the first place. IL takes no
account of the annexations and consultations
so frequent IN American municipal hlstory In
the next place. Il errs IN attributing 20 American
cities as a whole continuing and stable rate
OF growth Few OF our cities make IN two sue
cessive decades anything like the same relative
progress. Philadelphia. for instance. has shown
n sinCularly even growth under the enumera-
tons OF 1850. 1890 and 1900 But the ratio OF
progress in most cities has varied widely from
decade 20 decade. The arbitrary increases at
tributed 20 certain cities in the Census Bureaus
bulletin exhibit the wortblessness Of fits method
Troy. we are told. has increased it's population
IN three wears from GO.6Jl 10 75,5G7. This in
crease was undoubtedly accomplished by an
nexafton OF territory. Between 1890 and 1900
the population OF Troy fell from 6O,9J6 10 60.65L
Omaha's population fell in the 1S90-l9O0 decade
from 140452 10 1O25J5 But the bulletin
ignores this rate OF decrease. and i'm the three
wears since 1900 attributes 70 Omaha a gain in
population Of lOS06 In the case Of Albany
however the rate Of decrease from 1890 10 1900
is held 20 be continuing. and the population for
1909 IS put lower than The population for 1900
The chief value Of the decennial enumeration is
that II shows the specific. positive growth OF
each city FOR the decade-a growth which comes
IN most Instances. from purely local and swiftly
changing causes. II seems scarcely worth while
70 publish figures crediting each community
witt supDostiti0us annual growth Why not