The Montgomery advertiser., 1904-10-02
COTTON.
.sTo My Friends:

| ''To My Friends:
 | There seems to be a great oiver- sion of opinion regarding the coming l bureau Monday. The speculative public are under the impression that the | general deterioration during the past month will show e falling of of on- iiy nine points from the last report of | S41 and A natural confusion exists in the minds of the public as to whether the correspondence will give the con- dition based upon 100 as perfect con dition, or whether they will take the last report as . basis to figure the deterioration from their section. From my information regarding the subject, many have taken the latter. Judging
 from this point of view the report will be very confusing and a condition
 as high as ; 76 will possibly mean nothing so far as the outcome of the crop Is concerned. Every speculator In the South has sold cotton on the
 movement as well as this contempla- tive bearish report, I therefore think
 the market has Already discounted
 these beartsh features at ten cents per
 pound. and advise my friends to be
 cautious in following the. decline fur
 ther for the present
 I have about finished my trip in the
 Eastern Belt having inspected many fields and famfliarized myself with the
 out-turn. Many farmers in Alabama
 and Georgia are about through pick ing. The soorching weather the past
 month. has opened all bolls and some prematurely. Picking has progressed at the most rapid pace ever before known, owing to the fact that the en- tire crop opened at once, and would say that fully 80 per cent has been picked on the hill lands of the East ern belt. Of course the bottom lands have not opened quite so rapidly. but
 think that 70 per cent would be good average for the States covered.
 The marketing has been free. many farmers have sold as they ginned and a great many have told me that the had already marketed 75 per cent of their production. Knowing these
 facts feel safe in saying that the crops of the Carolinas' will be in-
 creased about fs per cent over last year. Georgia about 20 per cent and
 Alabama about IS per cent.
 My best information from posted people regarding Mississippi is that the
 State will produce about the same or
 less. Nearly everyone as well as my
 self have been greatly misled regard ing the crop, owing to the magnificent prospects of four weeks ago. The present movement has caused many to
 increase their estimates and again l created a heavy short interest. that
 will suffer the consequences later
 on when the real situation Is real- ized.
 From the general conditions that prevail we are lead to believe the world will require eleven and one half mil-
 lion bales and even the milling inter. | ests for the country openly admit that | 10 cents Is cheap for a crop of that
 magnitude. I therefore advise my
 milling friends to delay no time in se- curing their supplies, as we'll as to ad-
 wise the farmer and merchant to hold
 his cotton for its value, and not be
 misled as Is the speculative public,
 by heavy movement in October. Cotton brought on this reaction or
 any further dip win net good results
 later on in the season. The fields are perfectly red, the stalks are either dead
 or dying, there is no possibility of any | top crop or second growth as we had | in the years of the bumper yield. Giving Texas and the territories an | increase of 100000 bales with Louisi-
 ana and Arkansas 5o,0O0 each I cannot
 see crop at present over eleven mil. | lion bales.
 (Signed.) R. M Scala. with Jno. F. Black 6 Co, IN Y. Cotton Exchange.