The Mitchell capital. (Mitchell, Dakota [S.D.]) 1879-1918, 1904-12-16

as possible nllh res ard to aatrs ana
locality Tie ioigfai,se toseeis,eI H.
liable TO sometimes fnd Il y~rfinc8tluu
nittiu Tie broad area OF the United
states. hy laying great stress upon
The probability OF thundeIstoims dur
Ing t%ie.."arll months, frost iE Sep
tcniber and cold waves IN midwintct
I'm northern districts, viii mys-
tetiOus references To the relative po-
sitlon of the planets, real and inn
aginary, lie is, ii seems, also able To
delude A portion OF the public into
the belief that he is the posscssoI of
some astutc knowledge or discovery
which the most renowned scientists
OF the world have been unable to
evolve.
1t is by %word-play OF very indie H.
mite meaning in connection with we'll
known characteristics OF atmosphere
lie disturbances that the longrange
forecast faker is able to deceive some
of the uniformed in these particu-
! lars into believing in his fraudulent
productions.
Now, as a matter OF fact, We in
South Dakota know full well that
we must expect warm weather in the
naturally warm months, and that
the intensity Of thunderstCrms and
the amount Of rainfall may lie heav-
/ iar IN, sauna ,nrtc of f1,a ctnta Hmm in
Others, with liability to hail of local
character and within narrow limits.
We also know that we must expect
frost i'm September and sudden and
We know, too, that unusually mild
weather in winter is almost sure to
be followed ly a sudden change to.
colder. Unusually mild weather in
winter with southerly winds indi-
Gates an unusually pronounced at
mospheric disturbances to the north
west of us, moving eastward, and
we must expect that when the
n%ortherly wind following this dis
i turbance reaches us it will he in
marked contrast to the preceding
mild conditions. Now, if the long
range @iorecaster would state exactly
at what time and over what district
these changes would occur, his in
formation might he of some value;
but in order to escape sncb PROPOSE
tion his talent to be directed i'm IA
line toward covering up his inability
to do so, by resortlne to ambiguous
phraseology and indefinite state
ments.
The-U. S. weather bureau. while il
has..becn i'm the past and is still Civ
ing the matter of forecasts for longer
pe1iods--than it now issues the most
earnest and careful study, realizes
that reliable predictions at present,
for longer periods than 3 or A days
under the most favorable conditions,
are ilapracticable. The rate of
movement .of atmospheric disturb
ances is not always the same, and
some are very cratic in their action
and direction of movement, devia-
tion Of 100 miles from a pre-assulned
path often making a great difference
in the rainfall or snowfall for given
areas.
We find that the monthly forecast
OF N Of the so-called longrange fore
casters is always headed with Il pic
ture illustrating the dread results of
a tornado, described as 1.-THE Storm"
What is this for? Does the man
whose interest in his fellow-man
makes Of him a pbilanthropist begins
his good deeds with illustrations of !
unutterable horror? Must the public
first be made afraid to impress it
with something that is for its ben
eft? The itinerant vender IL fake
medicines would. i'm order to dispose
of his worthless wares, make his
victims believe that every natural
function Of the body was an ailment
that DOR OF later WOULD result i'm
untimely death. So it is with fake
f%orecasters, who attracts attention to
his wares by ambiguous and yelled
limitations Of danger or disaster and
mysterious references to the planets.
AS a course Of reasoning to discov-
er the falsity and unreliability of
such longrange predictions as are
now issued, let any mar Tin South
Dakota look back over the period of
his residence here and recall how
many times within that period tor
nadoes, severe thundersorms or bail
storms have visited this state or sur
rounding states, missed his locality.
He will find that the percentage of
liability Of injury to himself, his
family, or his property by atmospher-
ic disturbances is so small as to am
to little. Yet he will find also
that but few Of the fake forecasts
are issued without a yelled intima-
tiOn Of disaster somewhere. that