The Indianapolis journal. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1867-1904, 1903-06-28
They Think the Prospects Are IN
promising and VIII Sell stocks
Short and Buy Corn Options.
MONEY sTRINGENCY UNLIKELY
MARKED DECLINE OF THE SPECU-
LATIvE CRAZE IN WALL STREET.
Heavy Losses of the Gates Crowd on
the Chicago Derby-The Transfer
of Colorado Fuel and Iron.


weather is a very serious topic in Wall
street just now. There is time yet for it to
mend and partially redeem the outlook. but
the crop prospects at the moment are in
deed dubious. Corn is from four to five
weeks late. From the point of railroad ton
mage it is the most important crop of ALL
1t is too early to predict its failure this
year. but on the very best terms now pos
sible corn will be ripening eighty or ninety
days hence. with killing frosts nightly
probable. A short yield of corn seems to
be inevitable, considering the average
chances of the situation, and that viii be
bad enough. A crop failure such as oc-
CURED two years ago would be something
of a disaster. Wheat prospects are some
what more promising. but in the sections
where harvesting of winter wheat is now
In progress the yield and quality are dis
appointing. The Western stock market con-
tingent is bearish on stocks and bullish on
corn. It's advice is to sell stocks short and
buy corn. The advances that have taken
place this week in the deferred corn options
are of more than speculative significance.
In spite Of the enormous crop of corn that
was taken last year prices have ruled so
high as to interfere seriously with export.
The same has been true of wheat and cot
ton. One needs only to consider the spec
tacle of cotton selling at Is cents to realize
that the outlook for that crop this year is
discouraging. Meanwhile our imports con-
tinue to gain on our exports, which becomes
a serious matter with our prospective sur
plus of stuff for export constantly shrink
ing And this is all on account of the
weather The failure of the corn crop year
before last never figured to any extent in
railroad earnings, for various reasons The
extraordinary railroad tonnage yielded by
industrial and commercial expansion every
where and a very large wheat yield more
than offset the corn shortage. 1t is likely
to be different this year. A reactionary
tendency in the general line of trade and
manufacturing has already been observed.
XXX
1t is an automatic saying that the unex-
pected Is forever happening in Wall street.
Fear of another stringency such occurred
last autumn has been religiously dinned
into the Wall-street mind. Although brok-
ers are carrying fewer stocks than at any
previous time. perhaps, in Ave years. they
have been stocking up with time money at
So per cent. to carry them over the end Of
this year. They have use for the money
now. and are lending it out on call at from
2 to per cent. The difference is their loss,
of course, but they feel that it is worth it
to be protected against tight money this
coming autumn. 1t is to be noticed that
there is an unlimited supply of time money
at 81 per cent. carrying into January and
February of next year. There is strong
suspicion that shrewd money lenders have
been fostering the apprehension of none
tary stringency in order to work off funds
at that rate. Indications do not point to a
large demand during the remainder Of the
year for money for purposes of speculation.
Nobody is expecting a wild outburst of
speculative enthusiasm on the part of the
public, and with this demand out of the
way the chances for a monetary stringen-
cy are lessened. The recurring stringency
of money each autumn is due to the demand
from the interior banks for money with
which to finance the movement of crops,
and if crops are to be short this year that
demand will be less. Two months ago agri-
cultural conditions, otherwise crop pros
poets, were almost too good to believe. They
were more nearly perfect than any Wall
street farmer could remember ever to have
seen them before. There was some reason
then to look forward to a monetary strin-
gency this autumn. The subsequent decline
of crop prospects, however. has greatly
changed the outlook. and those who have
been stocking up high-priced money are in
fair way to see their calculations &c
wrong.
Within the past three years the sky line
of the lower end of Manhattan island
which embraces the Wall street district
has so changed as to be almost unrecogniz-
| able by any one who has not unconscious
| ly watched the alterations from week to
week More skyscrapers have been put VI
in the Wall-street district in the last three
| or four years than during the ten proceed
ing years, and whereas only few of those
built in the preceding decade cut into the
sky line nearly all of the recent erections
| figure conspicuously therein. The trans.
| formation which has occurred right in the
| heart of the Wall-street district makes the
! banking house of j. Pierpont Morgan & Co
| look really shabby. Directly across the
/ street is the temple of speculation
| otherwise the new Stock Exchange. Their
| there are the beautiful Blair building, just
completed, at the corner of Broad street
| and Exchange place. and the monster
Broad Exchange building diagonally oppo
site. Speyer & Co. and Kuhn, Loeb & Co
/ nave diSO tTerteu eApeHsiNe DullulngS In tnt
neighborhood. In. short, building opera
tions on a colossal scale have been epidem
| ic in this community, and 1t would be i'm
| possible to estimate the aggregate of money
/ thus expended within the past few years
1t is significant to note that these hand
| some structures have been put up, so tC
| speak. at the very top of a bull movement
/ in the construction market, with labor
steel. real estate and material OF every
description at the highest prices that hav,
prevailed for. many years. If, as many
| ShFewd observers believe, a reactionary
tendency is now developing. these large in
vestments may experience gradua
l shrinkage for five or six years TO come, anC
1t may be ten years or more before they
actual outlay,
Hotel and cafe keepers. jewelers., yach
agents and others who profited enormously
| by the patronage of the Wall street class
that made so much money on the bull mar
ket, are all complaining of falling ava,
\ of business In the uptown places wher,
stock market people used to foregather a
night there is a marked contrast between
the slim attendance nowadays and tin,
/ throngs that only a year ago taxed the ac
/ commodations of these resorts. At tn,
| height of the speculative craze Ii was nee
essary for diners to reserve tables severa
/ hours in advance of the dinEer hour An,
/ one of the largest uptown hotels was com
. PEELED TO make rule refusing to resery,
! tables after 7:30 o'clock. IL is all very diff
! ferent now. Palm rooms and cafes present
! there is no need To reserve tables and sery
4 ice. no matter how large the dining mart,