New-York tribune., 1903-05-22
riraent came to the surface. AS Schiller has it'


least the coming elections. These will occur on
June Is and they viii give US q new Reichstas
whose main prerogative-at least for the first
year of its quinQuennial period-will be the set
tIing of the vexing and important problem OF
adjusting anew the conditions under which the
empire will conduct it's foreign trade. Roughly
speaking, Germany's foreign trade Is one-third
OF its total trade, and for three years past us
volume has been slightly in excess OF the Ior-
eign trade of the United States. averaging. IN
other words, about II 800 100000 marks. and
keeping wonderfully to this average despite the
financial depression Of the same period since
1900. The government has been at skies and
sevens since the subject Of either renew
ing or terminating the existing commercial
treaties has been taken up. and its position is
to-day even more ill defined and difficult than
1t was a year ago. So far Russia alone has
given assurances tantamoLnt TO the CONCLUSION
of new commercial treaty. while even Italy
and Austria. political allies though they are
have held back. The same remark applies to
Rumania, Holland and Belgium. as well as to
England. With the latter country, CONNER
cialy Of greatest importance to Germany GRADE
with Great Britain alone amounting for Ger
many to a matter Of about 1.600oo0000 to l.
1O0.0O0.000 marks per annum. exports end I'M
ports being Just about even). there has been
longatfon Of old treaty terms with some ex-
ceptions made necessary by Canadian discrimi-
nation. With the United States no headway
at all has been made in the matter OF conclud-
ing a new specific commercial treaty in lieu Of
the still existing most favored nation plan
While the new tariff law has been passed and
become law in Germany. and while the pro-
visions of this new law had been confessedly
framed mainly with view to overcoming the
increasingly dangerous balance of trade in ia
vor Of the United States. there seems now
strong possibility Of this new measure remain
ing imperative or of it's being amended more or
less radically during the early part Of the new
Reichstag session This will depend largely
on the outcome Of the impending elections.
CAMPAIGN JUST BEGUN.
What their result will be # is too early to
predict with any degree OF confidence The
campaign has only Just begun in earnest Ihe
indications certainly are that the coming
Rechstag will have larger number OF eH-
tremists than the present one, both Right and
Left The truculently anti-American wing or
the Agrarians, viz, delegates elected under the
segis Of the Federation OF Husbandmen Bund
der Landwirthe) and the Socialist wing on the
Left are both expected to increase their strength
considerably. That would be unfortunate, since
what Germany Just now most needs in her ma
tional Parliament is not larger percentage
of extremists, but, on the contrary, of reason
able calm moderates; such groups. In fact' as
would furnish the government a working ma
jority on all measures of intrinsicauy benef1cal
legislation But If the coming elections should
really turn out that way part of the blame Tor
It would have TO be saddIed on the government
itself For the Imperial Chancellor, Count Won
Biilow. has on the one side given way too much
sIvrafroa ting
tariff bill now become law. and thus made the
Agrarian party throughout the empire overbold
and. on the other he has by that very measure
furnished the Socialists with their most effective
campaign shibboleth: Bread usury by the gov
ernment" AS for the Socialist party In Ger
many. though the result Of the great sociaIistic
railroad strike In Holland has had a very de-
pressing effect on it, seeing that it ended in
total failure. AS the leading Liberal weekly,
'rDie Nation" expressed It: 1.-THE truth is that
society and the state Of to-day have always
proved strong enough to defeat Socialist mach
nations which in their essence were unjust
or excessive.
CHANCELLOR HAS MANY FOES.
The Imperial Chancellor, Count Bdlow.
has, Of course. many foes who are thirsting for
his Iifeblood. or. least, for his political scalp
and intrigues to oust him from power and to
undermine him In the favor Of the Kaiser are
incessant- The present time. when he is head
over heels In difficulties Of political internal
nature, seems very opportune to his enemies
and rumors are rife every little while Of his
having fallen from grace with the Kaiser. It IS
quite certain that the Empress dislikes both him
and his wife. The latter IS Italian woman.
daughter of the statesman Minghetti and her
lively and impulsive ways and manners clash
Of fta md rather formal ana
ceremoaious Kaiserin Count Won Bulow again
IS persona ingrata with her because he is re-
uuted TO be an atheist while Augusta Victoria
Is of pious and devout disposition. But these
things are not sufficient to discredit his Chan-
cellor with the Kaiser, who. besides, abominates
what he terms "Unterrockpolitik." that is, fe-
male influence In politics, and there are no
visible signs yet Of another Chancellor
crisis" current reports to the contrary being
based on nothing tangible Count Won Bulow Is
no statesman. In the proper sense of that word,
but he is an adroit and on the whole rather
successful diplomatist and parliamentarian, and
It is more than doubtful whether the Kaiser.
with his own strong bent for governing, as well
as reigning would or could stomach a real
statesman for his Chancellor.
To speak specifically Of German-American
relations, these are conducted on this side Of
the water in a concliatory spirit both by
the Kaiser and Count Won Bulow. Ever since
the return Of his brother. Prince Henry,
in fact, the Kaiser has shown, wherever
that was consistently feasible. good will
in a pronounced degree toward the peo-
pie and government Of the United States. In
conversation he still loves TO advert to the
brilliant reception accorded to Prince Henry and
to drop kindly remarks about the royal hos
pitality.' he phrases It. extended on that oc-
cason. There seems to obtain complete salts