The Minneapolis journal. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn.) 1888-1939, 1903-08-24

ered the most authoritative regarding the
northwestern grain crop. AS their Views
carry weight and are apt to materially
affect values of the crop, it is of some i'm
port whether they are the most nearly
right or not.
In considering the difference in the es-
Inmates Of these gentlemen and that OF
II. ". Jones, also recently made public.
in order to judge ofsthe comparative prob
ability as to whom the outcome will prove
to have been the most nearly correct, one
should take into consideration; certain
facts regarding methods Of inspection,
manner of arriving at the yields OF the
different districts, and final conclusions as
to the whole; Of the comparative ability
to judge of that3which comes under, and
OF what and how much does come under
their various observations. He should
further take into consideration any con-
ditions or influences that are apt in sany
way to modify or bias the. Judgment of the
various parties mentioned. IN
An instance doesn't prove much; 1t is
merely an individual fact "A succession
of like instances however, affords oppor-
tunity for determining an average-and an
average generally constitutes reliable in
formation. MP. Jones was wrong once,
but OPPORTUNITY corrected himself. The
m1llers grain men and railroad officials
have for years made tours Of inspection,
with resultant public expressions Of opin-
ion, and have almost invariably been a
good deal wrong.
In making their Inspection the mill
ers take a private car, or. cars, in which
they eat, sleep and straye1-and enjoy
| themselves. They wander along Mr..
ti1lls-or some other-pike, occasionally
| stopping and inspecting, consisting usually
IN Interviewing local elevator men and
merchants. These persons are almost in
var1ably certain that their neighborhood
IS sure winner, for reasons best known
| 10 themselves. Occasionally they may
stop or as the guest of some large farmer
| ana take drive round his fields. The
| FARMER is more apt to take pleasure in
| showing up his ability as an agriculturist
| than TO impress them as to the average
crop conditions, and they probably see
only his best fields And so on, until they
turn around and return home.
Compare the foregoing-a fairly accu-
rate statement of what actually occurs
| with Jones methods. He divides up the
entire area into districts, as defined by
variations In soil and climatic conditions,
ETC., and these into subdistricts Different
| parts OF each such locality are visited and
fields examined and their condition noted
until ne has ascertained the actual aver
age condition for the whole district.
Pursuing this method until the entire
field has been covered, he has obtained a
knowledge, based on careful inspection
and experienced judgment, Of what the
probabilities are for the total yield as in
d1cated by the acreage, of which he has
means for obtaining accurate informatio
Have the nillers ever been the more
nearly right? Have they ever erred or
the other side? That is, the lower.
The millers risk nothing by the ex-
preston of their opinion of the crop yield
but the reputation Of Mr.. Jones Is based
on his knowledge of business conditions ir
the northwest, the principal factor there
! OF being the grain Ecrop-at least for this
part of the northwest. Naturally, his
reputation depends to a large extent on his
reliability In predicting crops. g..
Regarding the miller, the lower the
) price Of wheat the larger his proportion.
ate per cent of profit on his sales. The
lower the price the more business is hi
able to do with the amount of working
capital at his disposal. With hundred
; thousand dollars with which to operate
II he could do just twice the amount o.
2 business with wheat at so cents per bush
? Eel than If it sold at a dollar. The write
has seen it stated that 80 per cent o
those engaged in the grain trade wer
, bears on wheat, and 1t certainly appeals
5 to a farmer that the millers were include,
5 in the classification.
r 1t is fairly safe to say that the averag
t farmer believes that the unvarying tend
ency Of the flour manufacturer to see
bumper crop In prospect, is merely
q method Of the miller to insure to-
: dressing for the article of which his manu-
featured product is the raw material.
u -Aruraljay.