The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1903-04-26
NEXT MOVE IN The BALKANS.
RUSSIA TO PUT NEW PRESSURE
on THE SULTAN?
Glimpse Of Conflicting Interests at Wsrk
In Present Crtsis-Serieus Ftghting
Probable In Next Few Weeks-9SO..
600 Turkish Troops 10 the Front.

esntuptC " ssssVsNSss - '~--
In Present Crtsis-serieus Trghting
Probable In Next Few weeks-3SO..
900 Turkish Troops 10 the Front.
Special coo,s Despatch N THE sux.
From the Special Correspondent OF the SON.
SOFIA, Bulgaria. April 7S.-Three weeks
spent In gathering information at first hand
among the highest authorities In Constan-
tinople. Bulgaria, Macedonia and Servia.
including those entitled to express the
views Of Turkey. Russia. Great Britain
and the other great Powers. and tho leaders
OF the insurrectionists. enable me TO speak
with a cert ain amount Of confidence Of
some Of the feat ures Of the crisis which
is reshaping the destinies Of this portion
OF the world.
II would merely be absurd to pretend
to separate with accuracy truth from false
hood In the great mass Of contradictory
material which has come before me. On
the other hand, some facts and conclusions
may be set down without reservation.
must claim indulgence II I speak too
dogmatically. It is necessary, because
am not at liberty In many instances to
name the authority for my statements.
Moreover, it il not possible within the
limits Of a cable despatch TO 20 into cor
roborative details. which ! hope to supply
more adequately by mail
MY first statement will seem q paradox
TO most readers, namely that the only
people who seem TO be sincere In the desire
for certain measure Of reform In the Bal
kans are the Turks. The reason IL simple.
The Sultan desires to maintain the status
quo In the peninsula.
His task OF controlling tho irreooncil-
able races and religions In Macedon IA u
almost impossible under any syste m Of
government and measures which are Or
/dinarily regarded as severe and oppressive
are absolutely necessary. 1t Ia quite true
that the Turkish m easures have been far
too oppressive. cruel and corrupt.
The Sultan believes that any extensive
relaxation would eventually result In one
or the other elements of the population
gaining the upper hand. He IL willing to
yield. however, as much as he considers
would not imperil his sovereignty.
The Bulgarian and Macedonian insurrec-
tionsts raise the reform cry solely for
outside effect. No greater disappointment
could come to them than to sec gen uine
reforms introduced under Turkish auspices.
voluntarily or otherwise. They aspire
for nothing short of Independence. although
they usually veil their ambition under the
term autonomy.
II Is the conviction of almost every COM
petent observer that independent Mace
donia would mean nothing short OF the
blacklist anarchy throughout the land.
Perhaps should explain that the insur-
rectionists have a larger scheme, which
was explained to me the other day by
their chief leader with an enthusiasm
which was almost fanatical. He desired
he said, to form a Balkan. or. a. he ex-
pressed it. a south Slav federation, CON-
sisting Of Bulgaria, Servia, Albania. Mace
donna and Roumania.
The object of this federation would be to
prevent both pan-Russian and pan-0er-
man expansion, and he aspired to secure
the active support Of Great Britain and
France 1t would be useless to point out
to him the absurd imprscticability Of his
scheme In the present situation.
Turning to the larger aspect OF the situa-
ton. It must be admitted that Russia has
fully convinced the Representatives Of all
the Powers at Constantinople OF the sincerity
OF her desire to avoid military intervention
at the present moment. This belief b
coupled equally with the strong conviction
that the Cars Government likewise
does not desire a permanent settlement Of
the Balkan question. A brief postpone
ment, not genuine reform, IL Russia's real
desire. Her status In Manchuria must first
be settled. and II Is expected that she will
press 1t to the earliest conclusion.
Regarding Russia's next move. ] quote
an extract from q conversation with Mus
covits statesman few days ago:
we expect nothing whatever from the
Sultan in the way OF reforms In the present
situation. he remarked cynically. we have
never deluded ourselves on this point He
viii do nothing practical until very strong
pressure is brought to bear on him. and
this will be done SOON
D., I suggested that his language implied
very grave measures.
NO, you misunderstood me- was his
reply. Il mean moral pressure. not mill
tary Intervention
But when. with some surprise. expressed
the prevailing opinion that the resources
OF moral influence In that direction had been
exhausted, the answer was most emphatic,
that this was a mist aiken idea. that events
would prove before long that pressure
could be put upon the Sultan which would
compel him to yield TO all the demands Of the
Powers. and that this effect would be pro-
duced without moving battalion or firing
shot, came away soeptical. but puzzled.
There must always he borne In mind
the terrible danger involved in pressing
he ruler Of the Turkish Empire too far.
The last time the Powers adopted . per-
emptory tone In demanding reforms Of
the Sultan W as in connection with the
Arme MAN massacres in Asia Minor.
Abdul's reply was the slaughter Of 1000
Armenians under the noses Of the Am
bassadors at Constantinople itself. The
Powers did nothing. and the subject Of
reform has not been mentioned to the Sui
tan from that day until the present crisis.
have abundant reason to know that the
Turks fully recognize the possibility Of
Russia driving them out Of Constantinople
and that such Ia Russa's ambition and
purpose.
When the moment comes. however the
conflict will take the form Of . religious
war. and 1t Is the greatest aspiration Of
every Moslem 20 perish for his faith. To
quote the ominous words Of an eminent