New-York tribune., 1903-03-03
WILL TURKEY BREAK UP?
FEELING 1T BUDAPEST.
Belief That Balkan Troubles WM
Hasten 1t.
'seeeiai to TAe Ns~-York Tribune BY French cAAle3

fseeeiai to The New-York Tribune by French CahIen
tceDyr.ght: 1Sos: By The Tribune AssoctationI
Budapest, March 2-The gravity Of the Bal
kan complications is disclosed by inquiries
among of1cials and well informed men here.
am told there Is a general belief at the Hun
sa-ian capital that the breakup Of Turkey Is at
hand: that it viii come without doubt within
three or four years, or that it may come within
tnFee or four months. It is conceded here, as
st vienna, that the catastrophe, if 1t occurs
this year, will be due entirely to the activity OF
the Albanian and Macedonian bands The revo-
lutionary leaders understand this and are max
ins desperate efforts to stir up strife while all
the eyes Of Europe are fixed upon them.
MY informants here assert that while Russia
and Austria-Hungary have given servia and
Bulgaria to understand that the Sultan must
not be hampered in instituting the proposed re-
forms in the Balkan States, they will certainly
receive the support OF the great powers If they
are drawn into complications or hostilities. Bull
gar1a and Servia, however, jealous rivals
Each claims Macedonia it's rightful
heritage, on account of the historic conditions
prevailTr- in ote times before the Turkish
conquest Of Southeastern Europe, but my in
formants here assert that Macedonia, from the
complexity Of its racial conditions. cannot be
absorbed by either Servia or Bulgaria with the
assurance Of peace. nor can it be converted into
a separate State.
The Balkan question is battling officials and
journalists alike at the Hungarian capital. They
think the least Of the evils is the maintenance
Of existing conditions, with the introduction OF
experimental reforms and the continuance OF
the transition period long possible. They
say any cure will be worse than the disease.
They add that Russia no longer has raVenous
appetite for Constantinople. and that Austria
Hungary is not ready to take in another mouth
full Of Balkan population. especially as the last
meal OF Bosnia and Herzegovina disagreed with
her internally and is Tot yet digested.
The cautious Magyars dread the outcome or
Balkan hostilities and the disturbance of the
peaC> of Europe. They contend that Austria
Hungary and Russia must try to MAINTAIN the
existing arrangements In Macedonia until Tur-
key falls apart 0f itself They say there can De
no hope Of a united confederation OF Balkan
States since the Jealous communities can never
get along with one another in the Balkan Fen-
insula They say it is too large territory for
confederation and union would be a menace 10
Austria-Hungary and Russia. They holo tnaI
the Balkan must be subdtvided into a nuInOeE
of little countries each made up, as rar as pos
sibIe. Of a homogeneous population
The Sultan does not lack defenders among the
Magyars. One OF my informants describes 'he
sultan's subjects as generous and honest among
themselves and the bravest Of men. He main
tafns that the disturbances in Macedonia are
du. entirely to religious differences ana thaI
hotb Mahometans and Christians are equally
convinced that anything they do to their an
tagonists has divine sanction