The Montgomery advertiser., 1903-05-01
NEXT YEARS CAMPAIGN
BUT IT MAY BE MIGHTY CLOSE
 sCRAPING FOR PRESIDENCY.
New York is Debatable Ground, But New Jersey Must Be Carried and Then Little Punches Will Have to Be Picked Up in Rock
 bound Palces--Conserva-
 tive Policies Necessary.
Washington Special.

The picking of battle ground is a strategfcal feature of great importance early in every Presidential campaign. As things look now more than twelve months before the national conventions. this may become alike difiicult and ex- ceedingly serious step in 1904.
 It is a foregone conclusion that New York State will be in the thick of the fray, as in the good old times. before the smoke of Presidential contests rest ed on Western fields. It seems to be al- most equally certain that the Middle Western States, which were fought over of 1896. will be In large part remote from the heavy firing, unless conditions should develop that would make it advisable for Democrats to invade Indiana or Illi- nois.
 But the hardest work will be in New York for several reasons. It is Presi- dent Roosevelts State, and as a matter of party pride, If for nothing else, the forts there. Party control in the great est State of the Union Is alone big prize to contend for. There will be a full quota of officers, from Governor down. to be chosen. and the Legislature to be voted for next year. will choose United States Senator to succeed Mr. Depew. With the Northern States now almost entirely unrepresented In the Sem ate by Democrats. it would be a big achievement for the party to lead off in choosing a Democratic Senator from the Empire State.
 New York State being in the lime light of politics, tho eyes of politicians the country over are upon it. and conditions that are dispiriting to Republicans in the Presidents own State will exert wide influence over many other States, ana undoubtedly mean many thousands ot votes for the party. As the vote of l9o0 for President stood, the Republicans should lead off with a tremendous ad- vantage. as then Mckinley had plu- Iality of 143,606. But the strength of the financial and business interests of New York in political campaigns has been emphasized again and again, which,. under present circumstances, seems to threaten the loss of the State to the Re- pubiicans next year: In 1900 Meklnisy his plurality in 1900: but in 1892 Cleveland had a plurality of 45.61S in the same State, which four years before that had given Harrison plurality of only E.Ooz.
 New York is but little more indispen- sible to the Democrats. if they succeed in defeating President Roosevelt. than is New Jersey, although the latter State has only twelve electoral votes. The situation will almost inevitably pc sucn ,e.l that Democrats must lay siege to this State, where Mckinley in 1900 had plu- rality of 56.000 and in 1896 plurality ot S7 692. Should the Democratic party get back on a conservative platfcm next year with conservative candidate, it would start out with much smaller &C., tuaI majority to overcome in that State. which up to 1896 had been voting Demo- cratic in Presidential elections. cleve- land in 1884 had 4412 plurality there: in 1888 he polled a plurality of 7.l49; while in 1892 the State gave him plurality of 14974. With the business interests of that section in sympathy with Democ. racy it would not appear such dificult task to reciai mths State from the Re- publicans
 In the Southern States the Democrats can count on about I62 electoral votes. including Maryland and Delaware, and with New York and New Jersey, they would have 213 out of a necessary zaS. The quandary of the campaign will ap- parently be to pick out three or Tour States, or even more. as fighting ground, so as to prevent the scattering of ef- forts. which might prove fatal to the party. A change of about 5000 votes in Connecticut on the basis of the guber- tbs Nmsr State to the po cratic column, and the seven electoral votes will undoubtedly be we'll worth fighting for from the Democratic stand point. In 1884 Cleveland carried the fin 1884 he carried 1t over Harrison by plurality of 336 In 1892 Connecticut was again In the Democratic line with plu- rality of 5.265 for Cleveland, the largest plurality that the State had given any candidate for the Presidency for over twenty years. But in that period it had gone for a Republican President only twice, once for Garfield by 2,656 and once for Grant by 4760. And yet in 1896 Con necticut gave Mckinley a plurality of 53,545 and in 1900 2S,570.
 There will undoubtedly be closer scan ming of States in the East for small punches of electoral votes than in the West, where President Roosevelt is com paratively more popular. Rhode Islands four votes may be struggled for, but notwithstanding the fact that the State now has a Democratic Governor by plurality of 7,73S votes, the little State has stuck to Republican Presidents for thirty years without an exception, always giving staunch majorities, which will be disc ouraging. to face in the campaign there next year. Republican plurahdes have averaged about 10000, but on the State ticket have been much less. Mc- Kinley in 1900 had a plurality in Rhode Island of 13,972, which was trihe more than one-half of his plurality there in 1896.
 The temptation If the Democrats will likely be very strong to make an old- time fight in Indiana because or the prev aIent belief that that State Is naturally Democratic. But Indiana is one or the States that has constantly been increas- ing its Republican matorities. The Re- publican candidate for Secretary of State last year had plurality of S5,5S4. which is far and away the largest Re- publican pimrality in thirty years Me- Kfnley in 1898 had a plurality of lS.ld and In 1860 plurality of 26,4l0 The pluralities in the days when it was nip and tuck between the two paTtie sin ln~