The National tribune. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1877-1917, 1903-09-24
FINDING THE
NEAREST GUESS
When the Easy or Short Method
of Guessing is Employed.

The example we take is Of contestant
who is supposed to have made GA guesses
by the easy method, as follows:
At receipts Of the Treasury for Monday,
Sept. %, 1903. my central guess is 2,13S,
5000. l wish to make 81 guesses above
the central guess and 80 below it, the diff
ference between each guess to be 500.
The first thing to do is to multiply 81
by 100 and add the product to the central
guess. This gives 2, 141 $1,000 as the high
est guess of this example. Next multiply
80 by 100 and subtract the product from
the central guess. This gives 2,135, go. 60
as the lowest guess. If the receipts of the
Treasury for Sept. %, 1903, when published,
are seen not to come within the range be-
tween the highest and the lowest guess,
and does not win.
Suppose, however, the receipts Of the
Treasury for Sept. %. 1903, are found to
be 2, 40. 1900, which we call the Bulls
Eye" This is within the range, and the
problem now is to find, by a simple calcu-
latiou, how near the nearest guess of this
contestant comes to the Bulls Eye"
First subtract the central guess from the
Bulls Eye" The result will be $1,000
Now divide this by 500. the difference be.
tween guesses. The result will be 90
without a remainder. The fact that there
is no remainder means that the contest
ants Goth guess above the central guess
hits the Bulls Eye" This can be proved
by multiplying 500 by 20 and adding the
| result to the central guess.
But, for second example, suppose the
| receipts of the Treasury are found to be
81, 14O, 30SO-that is, 20 cents more than
in the example just demonstrated. The
same process of figuring will leave re.
mainder of 20, which means that the 2Otl
guess above came within 20 cents of the
Bulls Eye" This can be proved by null
tiplying 100 by 20 and adding the result
to the central guess and subtracting the
sum obtained from the Bulls Eye"
| Now, for third example, suppose the
receipts of the Treasury are found to bt
2,14O, 81 .20-that is 5000 more than the
first example. The same process of figur
ing will leave n remainder of $SO6O, now
this remainder being more than half Of
the divisor. which is $780, the rule require.
that 5000 must be deducted from the
divisor, leaving a remainder of $194O
This means that the 21st guess above
came within $19.4O cents of the Bull.
Eye"
! Another example: Suppose the receipt:
of the Treasury are found to be So, 139.
260.40, a sum lower than previous exam
pies and lower than the central guess. Ii
foregoing examples the receipts were high
er than the central guess. Subtract til,
receipts of this example from the centra
guess, $2,14O. $1,000. The result will b,
$1,1702O. Divide this by 100. The re
suit will be found to be II, with n remain
der of 5000. Now, this remainder bein:
larger than the divisor the difference mus
be found by subtraction, showing that tn,
nearest guess is the 18th lower, and tina
its distance from the Bulls Eye" il
$29.S0. This can be proved by multiply
ing 500 by r. subtracting the result from
the central guess, and finding the differ
ence between the last result obtained ant
the Bulls Eye"
The examples we have given apply t.
any number of guesses and to any posi-
BILE variation of central guess and differ
ence between guesses. We have merel.
selected the figures of the examples at ran
dom. The calculations will work out cor
rectly with any other figures.
With the aid of these examples. we fee
sure that contestants who have employed
the central guess, or easy method of guess
ing, can quickly figure out just where the!
stand as soon as they learn the receipt.
Of the Treasury for Sept. %. 1908.