New-York tribune., 1903-07-19

a matter of official record is ever likely to be
fulfilled is to the last degree improbable For
having been permitted to build her TTans-Si-
berian Railroad through Manchuria to the sea,
1t naturally follows that she will never surren-
der to China to any other power a province
which she holds and which it is indispensa-
BILE that she should retain in order to safeguard
the great Trans-Asatic railroad upon which
she has spent such an immense amount of
money.
Had the United States, Great Britain and ia
pan been unwilling to admit of a permanent oc-
cupation by Russia of Manchuria, they should
have devoted their efforts to preventing the
tension of her Trans Siberian road through the
province, instead of declaring, as did Lord Sails
bury while Premier In the House of Lords, that
the concession to make and run a railway
could not possibly give any foreign country a
political power over China" From the moment
that the railway was constructed, the possession
of Manchuria by Russia, either as integral
part of her empire or else occupied in the same
manner in which England holds Egypt, be-
came assured While, however, it would be too
much to expect Russia to keep her promises
made to the United States and to the other great
powers by Count Lamsdorff and to look for an
evacuation of Manchuria it is probable that
Count Witte will signalize his assumption of
the office of Chancellor by endeavoring to nego
tiate with this country and with Great Britain
a compromise, according to the terms of which
Russia would undertake, while retaining her
hold upon Manchuria. to maintain open door
policy there in the matter of trade and industry.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs at st. Peters
burg and its agents abroad have so unenviable
a reputation in connection with broken pledges
and gross disregard of treaty obligations that
any assurance which they might make would
be treated with justly merited suspicion.
The Right Hon. Sir Nicolas O'Connor, now
British Ambassador at Constantinope, was, at
his own request. relieved of his previous post at
ST. Petersburg, on the ground, published at the
time in the British Parliamentary reports that
it was impossible to transact business with a
Foreign Minister the late Count Mouravieff)
who did not consider himself bound by his
promises, and who was ready to go back on his
word whenever it suited his policy. But, with
Count Witte in Office as Chancellor treaty
bearing his signature binding Russia to MAIN
tain the open door in Manchuria might be ac-
cepted by the United States and Great Britain
for they entertain a regard for his honesty and
know that he has been taught by his expert
ence of the money markets of the world the
value of being known as fulfilling ones oblga-
tions.
A compromise of this kind is the only issue
from an otherwise impossible situation, and
that something Of the kind is contemplated at
st. Petersburg is apparent from the fact that
in Difference to orders received thence the
Muscovite envoy at Peking has withdrawn his
objection to China's opening in the near future
two ports in Manchuria to foreign trade, name
ly, the inland port of Mukden, and Tatungkao,
at the mouth of the Yalu River. Care. however;
should be taken to avoid attaching undue i'm
portance to this concession on the part of Rus
clio 1nac In fI,aT she
agrees to withdraw from Manchuria, in accord
ance with her pledges to the United States, yet
| to open up the whole of Manchuria, which she
| wholly controls, and which her troops occupy
| from end to the other, to foreign trade. I'm
| til she has been compelling China to refuse
| to fulfil it's promise to open to foreign trade a
couple of ports in Manchuria. All that Russia
| now agrees to do is TO withdraw her objections
at Peking to China's eventual opening of the
| two ports in question AS I have stated above,
| however, it must he construed a disposition
| on the part of Russia to effect the best compro-
| mise possible in connection with the retention
of her hold upon Manchuria. For, as already
| explained that her railway is built across
| Manchuria she cannot afford to release her hold
| upon the latter being preferable to with
| drawal But a war on the subject of Man
churia, matter whether it resulted in victory
or defeat would be disastrous to Russia from
|
to her, even if Japan and China were alone in
the field against her. Count Witte knows this
| so, too, does the Garland, providing that
| they hold in check their military men, who
are eager for a chance of distinguishing them
selves, and If the United States and England
both of whom averse to going to war about
| Manchuria manage to restrain Japan from
taking up arms it is probable that the Man
churian difficulty may be compromised on the
| lines indicated.
Japan, which conquered Manchuria some eight
years ago. and then restored it to China in def
erence to the representations of the great pow
ers to the effect that the integrity of the Celes-
tial Empire must be maintained might be pIa-
| Gated by having her supremacy in Corea recog-
nized once and for all time by Russia This is
| Indispensable for her independence and for her
safety from Muscovite invasion. For Corea is
| within striking distance of her coast, and were
Russia in control of the Hermit Kingdom, as
Corea is called, Japan would be in constant and
| intolerable danger of Russian coup de main
| Russia has broken so many treaties and pledges
| with Japan. undertaking to hold aloof from
Corea, that the Mikados government cannot at
tach any faith to MuscOvite undertakings But
an acknowledgment by Count de Witte in his
capacity Chancellor of Japan's supremacy
and right TO control in COrea, would doubtless
allay her fears and render her amenable to a
compromise in the Manchurian matter Other
wise she is likely to prove a tough customer 10
| Russia For both her army and navy are large
| up to date. exceedingly mobile and in splendid
! fighting trim Moreover. il is well known that
Japanese influence has superseded that of Eu-
| rope and America among the Chinese who are
much more willing to take advice from and IN