The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1903-11-18
ALL SIGNS POINT TO
PROSPEROUS STATE
Smaller Crops Will Affect Export
Trade, but Other Conditions
Are Gratifying.
Globe Special Washington Service,
1417 G Street.

1417 G Street.
WASHINGTON, D. c., Nov. 1.-THE
statistical returns received by the gov
eminent from many sources have late
lv been scanned with special interest
with view of determining the outlook
for continued business prosperity. SO
far as the current accounts OF the
United States treasury are concerned,
the condition is somewhat embarrass-
ing to the administration, but the. TACT
that the expenditures are daily exceed
ing the receipts does not mean that the
country is less prosperous than it was
a year ago when there was big
treasury surplus.
The crop reports of the department
of agriculture have not yet given &C
curate returns of the wheat and corn
crops, but it is generally agreed that
both crops are smaller than those of
1902. This condition will affect the ex-
port trade, and will affect the pros
perity of some of the farmers, but the
falling off in the production of these
staples of the agricultural states is
not very great. There is a short oat
crop this year, however, the product
being estimated at 7S7,000,O 900 bushels,
as against 987,000,O0O bushels in 1902.
Another index of the general state
of business and trade is found in the
reports of national banks. These re-
ports do not indicate the phenomenal
growth of business which Immediately
followed the enactment of the new
banking law, which permitted the or
ganiZation of banks on a $4,000 cap
ital but, generally speaking every
feature of the national bank reports is
encouraging. Secretary Shaw regards
the recent bank failures as sporadic
instances, in which almost purely local
conditions were represented. He has
no idea that there is anything In the
present situation to cause uneasiness
on the part of bankers, or lack Of
confidence in business circles.
Good Signs in the Postoffices.
The receipts of the postoffices of the
country are also regarded as a good
index of the general business condi-
ton. In these times of business de-
pression-at least, if the depression is
long continued-the revenues of the
local service always drop The October
receipts of the fifty largest postoffies
in the country reached the enormous
total of $5,960,309. This is a gain of
$3S7361 over the receipts of the same
month of 1902-or of 6.S per cent.
There was a falling off in certain
large offices-notably New York-but
this is not a matter of permanent sig
nificance.
Phenomenal prosperity continues
throughout the far West and the Pa
ciffc coast, which seem not to be very
much affected by the decrease in sta
pie crops. All statistical data received
by the treasury department and the de-
partment of commerce pertaining to
the Western part of the country indi-
cate Enthusiastically the condition OF
thrift in business and commerce. The
grain exports on the Pacific coast have
fallen off-the shipments of wheat for
several months being ridiculously
small But for this there has been a
compensation. The exports of -four
have increased enormously. 1t is
claimed, therefore, that the Pacific
coast region has been gamer by this
shifting of commercial conditions More
of the wheat is now ground into flour
at home, thus adding to local indus
tries, while not affecting the whole
volume of the agricultural exports.
Import Invoices Are Smaller.
One circumstance which causes some
persons to fear that the country will
prosperous is the smaller invoices of
dutiable goods received at the larger
custom houses Secretary of the Treas
ury Shaw remarked several days ago
that, although there are Just as many
entries of goods at the port of New
York, the aggregate value of them is
considerably smaller-that is, the av-
erage size of such invoice is smaller
This, he believes, indicates that there
is a little less confidence in the future
on the part of the importers. 1t is re-
garded as significant, though, that al
though the importationS of dutiable
goods have decreased recently, the to-
tai imports have increased. That is,
the increase in imports of free goods
has been great. The manufacturers
who use certain raw materials seem to
have no fears in regard to the business
situation.
The November deficit in the United
States treasury will probably reach
100000 within a day or two. 1t is
now almost certain that Secretary
Shaw will be obliged to report a de-
felt for the current fiscal year when
he sends his annual statement to con
gress early next month Every day
in the present month the expenditures
of the government have exceeded the
receipts. and the same condition eX-
listed for about two thirds of the month
of October. The decrease in the Gus
toms receipts is now more marked than
ever, the falling off for the first twelve
days amounting to about $1,500,00
The internal revenue receipts are a
little larger than they were last year.
Walter E. Clark.