The Minneapolis journal. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn.) 1888-1939, 1903-06-27
The Week in Trade.


The grain markets, those centers of in
stability. Of legitimate trade and specula-
tive activity, have been attracting wide
attention this week. Prices Of all cereals
have been fluctuating over widening
ranges, with the trend continuously up
ward, until new high figures for the crop
year have been recorded all around, while
In wheat the price levels are higher than
for several years. Altho the closing figure
for Minneapolis September wheat yester-
day represented nominal gain of 10 cents
bushel from prices Of a month ago. this
of itself would ordinarily be nothing to
call for special comment outside the grain
trade proper; but it becomes a matter of
more general interest for the reason that
the advance is based in good part on dry
weather in the northwest and fear of
damage to the spring wheat crop.
At intervals of three or four years the
northwest usually strikes into period OF
nervousness over the crop outlook, and
this will In all likelihood be witnessed
again If no good rains fall by the middle
of next week. The speculative element
In grain, always on the alert for the pos
sible development of any factor affect
ing values, is given to anticipating in all
extra ordinary degree, and upon the first
faint indication of the rise OF an influence
of an adverse nature respecting the crop,
is to be found operating accordingly. The
fact that 1t Is the business Of speculation
to discount the future, finds nowhere more
forcib1e illustration than in the grain
trade.
1t is not to be denied that the bulls IN
the present campaign have had basis
upon which to build up prices. for it has
been dry all over the northwest for some
time. Without doubt there has been no
damage done anywhere that is worth con-
sidering relative to the crop as a whole,
and there is probably no important dis
trict in the three states where there is
any such deterioration to cause alarm.
Rains coming soon will refresh the land
and revive all crops, and there are those
in the legitimate branch of the trade,
with the experience of twenty-five years
to guide them. who, after personal inves-
tiEation, assert that there will be oc-
casion for general alarm unless dry
weather continues until July 4. Yet the
markets, already well along on the rise,
will turn on the weather General rains
Tonight or Sunday will mean the end, but
mere showers, or no precipitation at all
till next week, will mean a big bull wheat
market, with much higher prices, and it
Ia against the discouraging influences nat
ural to this that the business man should
guard should it come.
Few people realize In full the wonderful
resisting power of the country. The year
1900 brought drought to the northwest
not the mere dry weather Of the present
but genuine blightng drought. The spring
opened with less winter moisture In the
ground than usual and a long period fol.
lowed during which no rain fell. At 8
corresponding date the northwest from
end to end. was suffering, reports of fields
drying up and of fields blighted came thick
And fast, many Of them well authenti
Gated. AL business interest centered II
the stricken country, and, with daily pre-
dictions heard that the northwest woulG
not produce more than S0,000,000 tt
90,0o0,eOO bushels of wheat, and the op
~
1t was natural that business men SHOULD
think it all up with the northwest for tina
year, and should become alarmed over thu
expected cGrtaiment Of the buying powe
of the country and seriously disturbe.
over credits. To the agricultural nipple
ment trade it was an especially tryin,
period, while the land men felt the nerv
aus tension worst Of ALL When the rain
finally came, it was thought they wer
too late to do much good, yet Minnesot;
and North and South Dakota produce,
that year almost 100000, 600 bushels Q
whaat--a light crop, to be sure, but
yield almost phenomenal in view Of wha
the country had been thru. Business wa
not seriously upset after all; the farme
paid his bills Just the there wer
not more than the normal number Of fail
ures or business embarrassments, and tn
country bought and paid for about tn
normal quality of merchandise in all lines
So will it be this year.
Commercial reports from the country a
large are Of a rather indifferent nature
n with few complaints Of conditions nc
altogether satisfactory. The iron mar
kets nave steadied after decline, but sen
timent appears to favor lower prices, an
having seen a setback from top figure
buyers OF iron are inclined to hold o
Ia hope Of another. The dry goods trad
In the east complains Of light demand, du
IN part to unreasonable weather. A favor
able feature Is the continued good show
ing In railroad reports. the earnings hold
Ing UP Surprisingly we'll
The stock market shows no change
Importance and the opinion is sainir
ground that the great decline Is over ar
that the next important movement w
be upward; but this is not looked for unit
the fall. and a dull and dragging mark
seems toreshadowed for the summ
months.