The Minneapolis journal. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn.) 1888-1939, 1903-07-11
;: The Wheat Situation.

The Wheat Situation. ::
Commercial reports of the day all dwell
at some length upon the outlook Tor 1alt
business, which Is pronounced unusually
favorable in almost every line Of. trade. !
The week. closing to-day; coming just
after the end Of the first six months OF
the year and marking the close OF the
fiscal year for many corporations, mas
bean a. time for retrospection. The first
: half of 1908 has not been a period Of gen
eral new recoxds in business. and In some
lines the tendency has been towards re-
trenchment and the holding In OF credits
rather than the seeking OF opportunity
for still further extension. Reports Tor
the period will begin coming from now
on and If they show volume OF business
on the whole equal to the same period
last year it will be satisfactory for it Is
mot to be expected new records can De
made forever without danger.
This period will be remembered prin-:
cipally as the time Of great liquidation IN
the securities market. and Of reorganiza-
ton Of many Industrial enterprises and
the abandonment of many schemes Of IN
fation. It is we'll that this should be So.
We have been told repeatedly Of late by
the Zwiseacres Of Wall street that declines
in stocks having now continued over a
period Of five months, an upward move
ment will shortly begin. But no evidence
of this is to be seen yet, and even up
to to-day the bear party is in control and
prices of many leading issues lower than
eyer. l..
The public will have nothing to do with
stocks at present. Too many huge
schemes were launched in the past six
years and too much water injected into
capitalization. Meanwhile. business In
general Is on satisfactory basis and little
complaint is heard from the legitimate
channels Of trade. The country Is forg-
ing ahead with less Of rush than formerly
but not the less surely.
The crop situation has reached a stage
where upon analysis Of existing conditions
it is now possible to arrive at some def1n-
tie conclusions 1t is a certainty that
the lower prices for our cereal products
that earlier in the season seemed clearly
foreshadowed are not to be realized.
Remunerative prices may be expected for
almost everything the farmer will raise
this year, while in the great staples, es-
pecially wheat, there is every probability
that the coming crop will sell at prices
averaging higher than for several years
What this will mean for the country Is
almost too obvious to necessitate extended
comment Here in the northwest we are
1,rir w III
wheat production, and for the purpose o,
illustration we may conf1ne ourselves t.
the three states. Minnesota, North Da
kota and South Dakota.
These three great states produced II
1901 about 17S,oo0,oOe bushels Of wheat
and in 1902 about $4,000, 900. If we as
sumo that these three states will rads
1so,ooo,0o0 bushels on the standing crop
it is clear that an increase of only cen
q bushel in the average selling pric
would mean $1,000, 900; 5 cents woul.
mean s9,ooO;o00, while an average pric
10 cents above that Of last year woul
mean S1S,000.00o more for the farmers
In 1900 the average farm price of whea
in this country was 90 cents; in 1901 81.
cents, in 1902 SO cents. Last years. aver
age was not a high figure for wheat
There Is everything to indicate that 1
will average higher this year.
Late reports from the winter whea
fields are running less favorable, Will
in the northwest. as recently set fort
In T h e o u a Il. serious detertoratio
is found in places as result Of the recer
drought. Let no one suppose from tn
that we are not to have much whea
There is likely to be an exportable su,
plus above the average. but late .redue
tons in estimate of probable yield a,
very important for the reason that earl
in the season, too early in fact for relis
bility. there was such an acreage ar
such a condition as to suggest to SON
observers the possibility Of productic
Of 100000, 900 bushels. The impressic
spread thru many minds that the Unite
States stood to produce a quantity
wheat greatly in excess Of anything ev
before known, and this idea took TO
abroad and even to the present time h.
not been entirely eradicated. This e.
plains why with an admitted shortage
16o,0oo0oo bushels in the European sui
ply English and continental buyers ha
shown supreme Indifference, since it h
been presumed that our surplus Won
be so great as to more than offset t.
European deficiency. The government r
port Of yesterday may change their vie,
somewhat. Winter wheat is shown
have declined from s2.2 to 1873 since Ju
II and there has been a decline fro
s5s to s25 in the condition Of spri,
wheat This indicates a total yield :
about 7oo,ooo,ooo. bushels which if rec
ICED will be magnificent return, e
ceeded only once in our: history.
AS every farmer knows.yit is the expo
demand:that is the determining factor
making wheat prices In the long run.