New-York tribune., 1903-06-01
STOCK MARKET CONDITIONS.

|
the last few months has placed speculation on
| a sound basis with - prospects bright for in
! creased activity later in the season Selhhs
/ has been accompanied with declining values
which in many have reached starthhs
! PROPORTIONS This reduction, however, in the
| market quotation of American railway and IN
dustrial securities has not reflected an adverse
/ change in conditions governing the actual worth
! Of investments does it foreshadow radlcal
unfavorabIe developments in the general bust
| ness and financial situation. In the last week
prices on the Stock Exchange recorded in the
| greater number of issues the lowest figures or
| the wear; indeed the lowest point within the
| last two years. The depreciation n value was
not confined to any group of stocks Gooo
securities suffered with the bad. and in many
| instances high class investment shares regis
! tered greater loss in market value than the low
priced issues little investment worth High
| grade railroad stocks, such as st. Paul, New
York Central and Pennsylvania. have declined
| in the last eight months from 30 to oO points
and they are now selling al investment level
which makes a satisfactory retur. on stock Sc
cured al existing prices. These prices have
! naturally attracted a good class Of investment
| buying, although they have not as yet induced
| the sO-called public element to enter heavily
! into speculative operations 1t is generally be-
| lieved however that active deman for pub
! lie account will develop. notwithstanding the
| presence in the market of q powerful bear party
that is still intent lowering quotations
There are few weak ccounts In the market.
practically no holdings for small traders. and
| little interest the long side by spectators
who depend on borrowed money for market
! transactions.
Immediate important Improvement is not
looked for In the best informed circles, although
a gradual change in the direction of higher
! prices is expected There are many people in
the financial community who believe that. bar
ring disaster to the country's crops, stock mar
ket speculation will into bull market in
| August Naturally. the movement of values in
the last few weeks has been discouragin the
| people who would like operate for higher
| prices, but it may be we'll for them to bear in
| mind that their holdings have lost nothing in
| intrinsic value and that all conditions encour-
| age the continuance of dividend payments and
! expanding of investment value There have been
| various unfavorable features in the situation
| which have had depressing effect on market
| quotations, but they have not upset the condi-
| tions underlying the real worth of securities.
| These bad features, however, have been more
than discounted by the fall in stock market
prices, and If there should be develop
| ments of real importance affecting the business
| situation. 1t would seem as If further decline
| in quotations would be warranted. Regarding
| this however, IL is not Sa1e TO make preOlctlonS
on the possibility of further decline, for the
| reason that stock market movements generally
! go far beyond the limits suggested by common
| sense and controlling investment factors. The
| bear party has grown in power and influence.
and It makes no secret of its intention to exert
| further pressure values. but investors who
| buy stocks at present will make no mistake so
far as securing profitable Investments is con-
cerned. In the railroad shares they will be
able TO secure from az to 51a per cent their
money. while in the industrial list they will
| find attractive issues which will them from
| to II per cent It is we'll worth noting that in
| dustrial stocks have not suffered to the same
extent with the railway issues in the liquidation
! since last August There even some cases
| where prices are near the high level Of 1902.
tabIy American Car and Foundry common.
| which is selling at price few points
within it's best level Of last year.
Money market conditions present no factor on
which may be based operations for lower prices
| IN securities. Notwithstanding heavy gold ex-
| ports, local bank reserves have not been ma
| terially affected while further shipments Of the
metal will not upset the money market Ex-
| ports have been offset by large shipments Of
| money from the interior. The outward move
nent of gold at this time Of the year is a de-
| veIopment of natural conditions in the interna-
| tionaI exchange market and it increases the
prospects Of a return movement in the fall. An
| other factor that promises 10 reach important
| proportions in the exchange market is the buy
| ing of American securities for the account Of
! foreign investors and spectators. In the last
| two weeks upward of 100000 shares Of first
| class railroad stocks have been bought by for
| eign houses and reports from the other side in
| dcate further purchases Of the charac-
| ter There is a vast amount OF idle cap pital in
Europe seeking investment reflection Of which
! Is seen in the success of the TransvaaI and Bra
| lillian loans. both of which have been enormous
! " subscribed in London. Until within the last
! few weeks foreign investors have been selling
! rather than buying American stocks. but 1t
| appears evident that sentiment Is changing in
| favor Of our securities London operators sell
! dom are mistaken in their Judgment of the
right time to buy and the right time to sell in
| their own and in the New York market and It
| may therefore prove profitable to follow Lon
| don's lead.
Conditions in the winter wheat belt continue
! favorable but adverse weather changes have
seriously interfered with the planting OF corn.
Late planting of the latter crop naturally tends
| TO increase the danger OF injury by frost near
| harvest time. General conditions in the bust
| ness situation throughout the country indicate
| a healthful position of affairs affecting the
| country's industrial activity in all lines OF
| trade Railroad earnings continue to exhibit
| heavy gains the corresponding period in
| 1902 roads in all sections of the United States
| reporting Increases both in gross and net re-
! turns For the month of April earnings so far
| received show an increase in gross of nearly 90
| per cent and the gain in net OF about II per
| cent In view of the fact that last fall predic-
| tions were freely made in many quarters that
net earnings would fall away. the showing is