The Indianapolis journal. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1867-1904, 1903-10-12
EASTERN WAR CLOUD.

To be exact, there are two war clouds I'm
which hangs over the Balkans and the one
that is concentrating over Manchuria. 1t
is difficult to say which of these is most
threatening at this moment or which is
most likely to lead up to complications that
will precipitate war. AS yet the powers
do not regard the wholesale massacres and
retaliations going on in Macedonia as war.
These are simply a domestic rebellion. a
sort of family quarrel to which the powers
politely shut their eyes. When Bulgaria
joins in, as she is liable to at any moment,
there will be technical war and it may in
volve the larger powers.
In the farther East the Russo-Jap-
anese situation would be critical were it
net for the overwhelming disparity of the
disputants. In view of Russia's greatly SUI
perior resources war with Japan would
seem impossible were 1t not that the latter
really considers herself quite able to cope
with Russia and is full of fight Japan is
not contemplate power, and with the
spirit of jingoism now prevalent there she
would be able to put up a stiff fight and
perhaps make things interesting for Russia
for while. especially on the sea, but the
interest could not last very long, and as
to the final outcome there could be no
doubt. This on the theory that the Euro
pean powers would keep hands off, Japan
doubtless expects that Great Britain would
come to her aid in a war with Russia, but
that is by no means certain. The treaty
between Great Britain and Japan. which
created much talk when it was formed, is
not a very binding one. It pledges both
to observe the independence and territorial
integrity of China and Korea, and to re-
frain from any aggressive tendencies in
either country. It declares that either Of
them may take such measures as may be
indispensable in order to safeguard their
/ interests in China or Korea If threatened
either by internal disturbance or outside ag-
gression. 1t further provides that If either
| party in the defense of its interests as
| above described should become involved in
war with another power, the other will
maintain strict neutrality and use its eff
| forts to prevent other powers from joining
in hostilities against its ally. But If any
other power should join in hostilities
4 against either ally, the other party will
| come to its assistance. will conduct the war
/ in common and make peace in mutual
! agreement. Under this treaty Great Brit
ain is under no obligation whatever to come
! to the assistance of Japan in war with
Russia alone. On the contrary. her treaty
! obligation. as long as there are only two
| belligerents. is to maintain strict neu-
trality and endeavor TO prevent other pow
ers from taking sides against Japan. Only
/ in the event of some other power joining
with Russia in hostilities against Japan
/ would Great Britain be bound to come TO
the latter's assistance. II is evident there
fore, that the situation in which Great Brit
ain would be bound by the treaty to come
to the assistance of Japan is rather re-
mote and that Japan may be counting toe
much on British backing. That in a war
with Russia alone Japan would have Great
Britain's good wishes and moral support
is unquestioned, but these would not helT
much. and 1t is safe to predict that Great
Britain will not go any further unless the
strict letter OF the treaty requires her to
Great Britain Is in no condition at present
i to engage In q foreign war. and viii not d.