The sun., 1903-12-27
Has England InterpoScd?

Has England lnterposcd?
According to kilograms from London,
Berlin and st. Petersburg, there has
been sudden change Of opinion touch
ing the likelh ood Of war in tho Far East.
The change is nscribed TO the belief that
the British Foreign Office has informed
the Russian Government that Great
Britain deems Japans demands just,
and expects them to be granted. Such
message would naturally be construed
as an intmation that if Japan should be
driven to war by her failure to secure
| from Russia the desired assurances with
reference to Corea she would not lack
an ally; although the Anglo-Japanese
treaty does not require the cooperation
| of the signatories unless the Island En-
! pire should be assailed by more than n
single Power.
There il no doubt that England can
prevent u war if she Is determined 50 to
d.. A combination of the British and
Japanos, fleets would render it impossi-
| BILE for Russia, even though she were
| supported as she was eight years ago by
| both France and Germany. to maintain
communication by sea with Vladivcs-
! tok and Port Arthur. This would be
! a fatal disability. All Of the rec force
ment5 and military supplies needed by
| the Cars soldiers at the eastern end Of
| Asia would have to be transported from
! the depots in European Russia over a
! poorly built single-track railway many
thousands Of miles in length Under such
! circumstances, how could Russia hope to
prosecute successfully protracted war?
Her disastrous experience in the Crimea
must have taught her that her financial
resources are inadequate to the prose-
cuton of military operations for an ex-
tended period even when troops, foo.
and ammunition have to be moved only
few hundred miles If Russia should
be totally cut off from the sea- and forced
to maintain a long struggle with an
enemy five or six thousand miles distant,
she would bleed to death.
On the other hand, England's ccopera-
tion would be Of inestimable value to
Japln. Assured thereby Of absolute
mastery at sea, soldiers and munitions
Of war might flow in an uninterrupted
stream across the narrow strait that
separates the Mikados dominions from
the Asiatic Continent. For Japan, fighting
under such conditions, the cost Of trans
portation would be relatively insignif-
cant. The drain upon her treasury would
be incomparably less than that to which
Russia would be subjected. Moreover,
with the British Government at her back,
any financial shortcomings would easily
be made coed by loans procurable in
London. In a word, Japan would have
as a coadjutor not only the nightiest
of sea powers but the supreme money
lender of the world.
IT, then, the contest could be localized
in the Far East, the ultimate result
if Japan should be assisted by England,
could hardly fail to be the expulsion of
the Russians from the whole region south
of the Amur River. The contest how
ever. could not be thus localized. If
Great Biitain should help Japan, the
French Republic however reluctant to
renounce the present friendly relations
With its neiGhbor. would be constrained
to throw the weight of its naval and
financial resources on the side of its
Russ ian ally. There l. reason to believe
that Rus il has rec ived from Germany
a promi e of friendly neutrality, if not
of actual aid, in certain contingencies. 1t
is true that no naval force that France
Germany and Russia could assemble in
Asiatic waters would be match for the
armament which Great Brit;ia and
Japan could array against it. The war
however, would not be restricted to the
Far East. Every part of England's far
scattered possessi )ns and all of her vast
Ccean-borne trade would be threatened
1t j. possible that an attempt would be
made 10 execute one of the projects
for an invasion of Bit in wliah are
known to have been deNi ;ed by German
and French st If officers. What is al
most certain il that the three Cont
merit II Powers would propose t. declare
food cor traband of war, " ith the object Of
starving their Bliti,h a1tlgor t i,to
sui mi :. On. That is proposal to Which
the Ur itcd st t,s would never assert,
and thus it might happen that everts
might force us to range our navy upon
England's fi1e.
So worldwide and portontous are
the compii 'ati ons thft mic ght follow
Rus il's refusal to heed England's pro-
test against provocati ms that have been
tenGing o drive the japanese to war.