The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1903-07-15
COTTON rs A DID FOOL.


Not long ago it wasn't rare to meet a
friend who would be telling you semi-con-
| fdentially how much money he had made
on cotton. 1t is never difficult to find
men who, no matter what the cotton
market is doing, are confident that they
know exactly how it will jump next. Peo-
pie who do not profess to know any
science or trade, who are doubtful about
their opinion upon most topics, are cock
sure that they know all about cotton.
Some Of these folks, who have been badly
hurt by the recent flurries on the cotton
market, may learn in the future not to
be confident that they know it ALL"
Those cotton manufacturers, who knew
cotton couldn't go above nine cents, paid
pretty dear for their confidence. Those
spectators who knew cotton would go
to fifteen cents in July have had to cough
up pile of money to pay for their mis-
placed confidence.
1t is well to study cotton here, read crop
reports, keep up with the movements and
fluctuations, and try to form an estimate
from all trustworthy sources, but it is
dangerous for any man to think he can
tell what cotton is going to do. Generally
the law of supply and demand governs,
but just the very time when he is bank
ing on that general law cotton reverses
all natural laws. Joe Oil writes story
in the Atlanta Constitution that illustrates
the above idea. He writes:
state Senator Davis, of Burke county,
was talking cotton with Commissioner
Stevens and congenial party at the De
partment of Agriculture yesterday. In
all my experience" said he Il never
found but one man who was real philos-
opher when it came to cotton. met him
few years ago during a season when the
bears were having things all their own
way, hammering the price of cotton down
and down, to the intense CONSERVATION OF
every fellow in the South who was indulg-
ing in the expensive luxury of contracts
for the future delivery of cotton, and
there were lots of them. OF course, every
Scutherner was certain that cotton was
going to bring a high price; we always
feel that way. j was solicitor general at
the time and my duties took me to Au
gusta. One evening after we had ad-
journed court, Judge Roger Gamble, who
was presiding, and / dropped into the
Commercial Club on our way from the
court. We had heard no news from the
market during the day, not being particu-
larly interested, so as we went in Judge
Gamble asked whether any of the gen.
tlemen in the group we joined had heard
from the cotton market. The day before.
it seems, there had been slump of 4s
points, and on this particular day there
had been a further fall of SO points. AS
soon as the question was asked we saw
by the crestfallen expressions that every
fellow in the crowd was on the wrong
side Of the market, but they were game
and, in the discussion which followed,
each fellow came to the front with his
that they could not keep it down how
ever hard the bears might try, and SO on.
You know the way it goes.
During all this talk / noticed a gen.
tleman, with sunbrowned skin that indi-
Gated an out-of-door life of some kind,
who could hardly keep still in his chair.
He fdgeted about and once or twice half
rose Finally after Senator Pat Walsh
had delivered himself of a most eloquent
and optimistic prediction about the i'm
mediate rise in the price which might be
expected. this gentleman could stand it |
no longer. This talk is all right, gentle |
men,, said he, with vigor, all right so far
as it goes, but there's one thing you have |
all failed to take into consideration. |
~ -
will do well to remember that cotton is
ID fool'i
'And he,' added Senator Davis, twas
the only real philosopher on the subject |
of cotton that l ever met