The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1903-09-20
NOT BELOW TEN CENTS
Mr.. Ashley Horne's Advice on
Cotton Situation.
Don't Sell Too Quick but Hold Your Cotton for
Consumption Has Gone Beyond
Production.

Production.
To the Editor:-I desire to answer
some recent correspondence from farm
ers and others asking my views relative
to the cotton crop and its probable rul-
ing price for the coming season.
This is problem that only time can
solve, but by combining many opinions
may enable the reader to be benefited.
This is an unusual crop. What usually
occurs in August is now being realized
IL, September, because the crop is two
to three weeks late. 1t is not my ex-
perience ever to get a full output from
any crop two to three weeks late.
The last bureau report was, in my opin-
ion, too high. l predict the next to be
less and continue to lessen to the end
OF the season, and that the crop will con-
ltirue to a detepioration exclusive of
the damage of frost even at an average
date, which will catch a large part of the
crop and larger part than ever before.
General deterioration in the crop now
seems to be going on from one end of
the cotton belt to the other. 1t is the
lint production per acre rather than the
extent Ol acreage WHICH IndheS the crop
Now with an intimate knowledge of the
cotton crop conditions at this season of
the year, l venture the prediction that
with the present unfavorabe conditions
so far as rust and shedding, boil weevilS,
dry weather, etc, the cotton crop of the
season of 19G3-04 beginning on the LIST
inst, may prove to be a very moderate
enc, not exceeding eleven million bales.
| What is the worlds consumption? Not
less than eleven and a half million bales
and will be more for. the next twelve
months than ever before on account of oul
last years shortage and the world S
progress.
For the last thirty years up to January
1903, Liverpool seems to have named the
| price of cotton for the world. Since
aruary, 1908, Wall Street and New Or
leans, being nearer the cotton fields.
| learned the weight of the crop and seem
to have taken the swing, now here she
goes, there she goes" What is the mat
ter with cotton? Who ever heard since
the days of Reconstruction of thirteen
and fourteen cent cotton, sixty dollars
per bale? What does it mean? 1t means
simply that one more time IN the his
tory of the cotton planters of the South
consumption has gone beyond then
production. This is confirmed, for it seem:
like thirteen and fourteen cents would
have brought out the last bale in the
woods. 1t seems to me, so far as the
present crop of cotton is concerned, the
farmers hold the balance of power and
are in a position to take the place of
Wall Street and New Orleans and name
the price of cotton for some time to
come. You are UP to a good proposition,
farmers, provided you are capable of
managing it.
/ recommend selling your crop slowly
| down to ten cents, then wait till you can
be better informed as to the size of the
crop. Would not hurry my crop on the
market after it gets under ten cents. AS
I see it now you are in a position to
control the profits of your own labor
Don't get frightened should Mr.. Neil and
his associates come out with a twelve
million bale crop. They have interests
to serve. Wall Street spectators deal in
margins and swing from one side to the
ether. It matters but little with them
whether cotton is high or low, provided
they see your crop is too big to cor
ner.
The world wants your cotton and VIII
want it bad. They know your crop will
not exceed last years crop, and they
know your last years crop stopped their
spindles nearly sixty days, and cotton
jumped from eight to thirteen and half
cents. This experience is too fresh and
unpleasant on their minds to be caught
the second time, therefore they will buy
your crop more rapidly than ever be-
fore.
1 admit this is early for any one to
give out an opinion for the future upon
a problem that so agitates the world,
and I may be wrong but want to warn
you of the position 1 think you hold.
My interest cannot be a selfish one as I
am on both sides-farmer and manufac-
turer-but mostly farmer. l share their
loss and gain. My predictions may be
misleading, do your own thinking
ASHLEY HORNE.
Clayton, n. c.. Sept. 10, 1903.