The daily morning journal and courier., 1903-09-17

stock market.
 ?. 4 harvest report far more favor able than we have for some time dared to believe possible. The wheat yield is estimated as larger than last year. and the corn crop is estimated by one ex- pert as only l43, ,OOO, 900 bushels less than last year, and by anOaher at 2Ss.009.000 less. Another week should tell the story of the corn crop beyond all doubt. but enough is known to make certain of a large yield, though not quite equal to last years record breaker. Even frost would not now altogether change this condition, as frost damaged corn is of value as fodder, which is one Of the great uses of corn. The cotton crop promises to be large, with higher average prices. As the crops are the basis of the nations wealth, this exbibit promises well for another year of prosperity.
 3. Current railroad reports are ex- ceedingly favorable, but it should be kept in mind that their statements rep resent past conditions. Still with large crops, the railroads may well look for ward to year of large business, though
 comparisons of earnings must hereafter be made with high record figures. f. There is an improvement in the conditions of the money market which is not reflected in rates so much as in the strengthened position of the banks.
 The clearinghouse banks hold surplus reserves of 100000, without taking &C., count of the United States deposits.
 The currency movement on account of the crops is late, because the crops are late. The demand is likely to be heavy as result of the high price of cotton,
 but the drop in foreign exchange indi- cates that while the drain of the west and south upon New York is setting in, the drain of New York upon Europe is beginning to be felt, and it is apparent that we are now in command of the international money situation. Mean while the reduction of note circulation as the result of the advance in. the price of the United States bonds, and the irl- crease in government deposits in the
 banks are contrary movements rather confusing to the observer. 5. Secretary Shaw has $40,000,00O
 which he is preparded to put into the
 banks in case an emergency should arise. '" 6. The production of gold is now on a
 scale equal to that proceeding the Boer
 war. & This array of conditions, on the whole speaks loudly on the side of optimism.
 But there are other things calculated
 to inspire. If not depression, at least doubt. The most important of them
 may be summarized as follows: ~ r 1. While the banks are stronger than | they were a year ago at this time. the
 money market is still in an abnormal condition, rates are high, the move
 ment of mercantile paper, though some | what freer, is still far from natural, and
 merchants are going to their banks for accommodation ... ?. There is a. strong suspicion that, l in spite of the recent severe liquidation. there are still large holdings of undi.
 gested securities carried by the credit institution. - < 3. In all the great international mo- ney markets the same phenomenon is
 presented of apparent preparation for any possible emergency. The Bank of
 England has already advanced it's rate of discount to Aper cent. and another advance to 5 per cent. Is expected. It's
 last statement was unfavorable, in that while it's ratio of reserve is high, the
 banks actual loss in cash has been
 heavy. While the price of United States bonds are higher owing to the demand for use as security for govern
 ment deposits, British consols have de. | ciined to the lowest point since 1870. a | movement that causes some observers
 much more uneasiness. !" A prevailing belief exists that some reaction in the volume Of trade is due
 especially as a Presidential campaign is about to open.
 5. A feeling that the labor prob- 1 lem has not reached the most acute stage in process of solution.
 It will be observed that this statement
 of opposing conditions prevents this
 marked line of difference. The favor
 able conditions are for the most part | accomplished facts, things which may be depended upon. The unfavorable conditions. outside of the we'll known
 undue extension of credit resting on ill- digestible securities. are those which exist, chiefly in the doubts and fears oi
 business men. To use again Secretary shaw's apt pharse, the situation, if it
 develops unfavorably, will be a psycho-
 logical, not a logical evolution n.--Wall Street Journal.