The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1903-07-12
Japan and Russia.

In the latest files OF the North China
Daily Nes0s, published at Shanghai, and
the japan Weekly Mail, published at
Yokohama, we find discussion Of the
probable outcome OF contest between
Japan and Russia, contest regarded
by observers Of the situation in the
Far East, not as Immediately imminent,
but az almost inevitable at some future
date. As both Of these journals have
exceptional opportunities of procuring
information, their estimates Of the rela-
tive strength of the possible combatants
are worth noting.
The North China Daily News asserts
that, il Japan should be vanquished at
sea, the naval fortress of Port Arthur
would prove sufficiently close to enable
Russia to pour large masses of troops
into the Japanese islands without much
difficulty. II. on the other hand, Japan
should be the victor in the preliminary
naval fight, the ultimate issue Of the
struggle is pronounced problematical.
In the opinion of the North China Daily
Neus. it is not certain that Japan could
ever place on the mainland a sufficiently
large army to carry the struggle into
Manchuria. Corea would probably be-
come the battle ground between the two
Powers, and long and weary war would
very likely be the result. II the fighting
should be confined to Corea, neither
Power would be in position to do the
other much damage, and the contest
would probably be ended by treaty
embodying mutual concessions. The
Shanghai journal adds that much would
depend on the answer to the question
whether Russia could get her European
squadron on the field of operations to do
battle with the victorious Japanese feet.
On the whole, the conclusion is reached
that Russia is, practically, invulnerable,
so far as Japan is concerned, and that
the resources Of the latter Power would
be wasted in the attempt to inflict a
serious injury upon her antagonist.
The Japan Weekly Mail does not &C.
cept this statement of the case. 1t ad-
mits, indeed that the great northern
empire is invulnerable in the sense that
its capital cannot be threatened from
the eastern extremity OF Asia. 1t holds,
however, that grave injury would be
inflicted upon Russia could she be de-
prived OF Port Arthur and Dalny; driven
out of Manchuria and compelled to seek
a terminus for her Siberian Railway
at Vladivostock which is closed by ice
during considerable part Of the year,
Moreover, as the Crimean War showed,
the fiscal resources Of an empire may
be strained TO the exhaustion point by
a protracted war waged on distant
frontier. Then again, according to the
Japan Weekly Mai, it is not true that, in
the event Of Japan's defeat at sea in the
preliminary naval fight, Russia, using
Port Arthur as a point Of departure,
would be able to pour large masses OF
troops into the Japanese islands.
1t is pointed out that the term large, "
if it have any practical significance in the
contest, must mean large in comparison
with the opposing force. Now the OPP
posing force would be the whole army of
Japan. At whatever point in the Japan
ese islands, Russia, having gained con-
troll Of the sea, should manage to effect
a landing, she would find herself con-
fronted by at least quarter of a
million well-drilled and well-equipped
soldiers, in whom the fighting instinct
is highly developed Against such a
force acting on the defensive, an
assailing army, in order to have any
chance Of success, would have to be at
least twice as large. That Ia to say, the
task incumbent upon Russia would be
the transportation of an army OF some
900 men from Port Arthur, Dalny
and vladivost0ck; the transportation,
moreover, would have to DO practically
simultaneous, for piecemeal work would
obviously DO ont Of the question.
The Japan Weekly Mail insists that
such task would be impracticable. The
machinery OF transportation docs not
exist. To carry tho men, horses, guns
and equipment. required, from 500 TO 900
A.