New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1903-05-25
STOCK MARKET CONDITIONS.

many points under the high prices of January.
and from 90 10 GO points under the record hg-
.I-es OF 1903. The decline has not been accom-
panied by q depreciation in the actual worth OF
investments. hut there are some people who be-
lieve that the loss in values foreshadoWs an I'M
favorable change in the tide Of business affairs
j., this country basng their idea the theory
that stock markets discount coming events
There is. however. no Indication of weakening
business foundations and no reason for pes
siraisrn over the country's Industrial outlook
strength in the industrial situation is attested
hv the ability of men in all lines of trade 10 do
= prosperous business in the face of many de-
velopTnen:s that in ordinary times would exert
an l.nravorable effect The countrys pro-
6rlctive energies. The corn crop failure of 1901.
for instance. caused an enormous financial loss
TO the farmers. merchants. railroads and ex-
rorters in the United States. yet industrial &C
tivity- was not checked. while our credit was so
strong that we were able to place enormous
loans abroad Another factor showing the
strong position Of The country is the rapid re-
durtton Of the loans Just mentioned in the course
Of the last eight months through excess n1er-
chandise exports. and in the last two weeks
through gold exports. Ever since the Northern
Pacific panic Of 1901 the stock market has been
subjected TO the influence of a series Of adverse
Developments which have not. however. dam
aged real investment value. and IL would now
seem as 81 the decline far more than measured
the had features in the situation and overdis-
counted possible unfavorable changes in the next
few months.
when the stock market is under the influence
Of a powerful speculative party it IS not safe
however TO base operations the ordinary
standards governing values. And when bear
movement is under way il is not always wise TO
believe that because prices are below the actual
worth Of the investment further declines will
not he made. Big stock market movements gen
orally run far beyond the limit suggested by
common serse. and so in the present case IL may
he well 10 look rather than to say that the
bottom has been reached or that an important
upward movement Will develop large specu-
lative party that rampantly bullish last
year when prices - per cent and more
above the current level is now ranlpantly bear
ish and Notwithstanding the decline that has al
ready taken place this element is still intent on
depressing values. And il must be admitted
thet this party is powerful enough TO continue
its rlars unless strong financial interests make
UP their minds check bear operations. The
more important financial interests appar-
entity not disposed at the moment 10 contest
bear supremacy. but it should be noted, how
ever that the character of buying is improving,
and that the liquidation of long accounts is
being absorbed by individual investors and large
corporate concerns Life insurance companies
were large buyers last week. while bargain hunt
ers stored many valuable securities in safe de-
post vaults. Despite the bear activity and the
markets weak raliying power, current prices
are attractive and people who can afford TO buy
and sit on their holdings for long period
ought to make handsome profits, barring. Of
course some radical change in general business
and crop conditions. Reports from various
Ia1+ s-7dio r.aol
planting season. the weather in the early spring
having been too wet and cold while Il is now too
dry and hot, and little seed has therefore been
put in the ground If weather conditions are
favorable in the summer the present delay In
planting will not interfere with a large harvest,
but Of course. there is too much uncertainty re-
sarding future climatic changes TO make present
predictions Of the harvest OF much value.
Winter wheat conditions still indicate record
breaking crop. and even If there should be a
yield Of 100000 bushels less than conditions
on April j suggested there would still be
usually heavy harvest.
II would be remarkable indeed. IL all factors
sn a big country's trade and industry were per-
feet at the same time and unfavorable features
:n certain quarters ought not to create a belief
shat the whole business structure is about TO
sr7unble The labor situation is bad, but there
is no warrant for the freedom with which pre-
6ictions are made suggesting that business en-
1erprise in this country will be killed because
OF the fight between labor and capital. Doubt
less the widespread strikes Will affect production
and consumption, but to say that business &C
tivity VIII be paraiyzed is striking wide OF the
mark. And, whatever effect strikes may have
on business has II not already been discounted
in the stock market? Cotton speculation has
hurt the export and textile trades, but II has
not planted seeds that will grow into a business
panic. AS far as the South is concerned the
high prices for cotton viii bring wealth to the
growers which in turn will add to the pros
perity OF tbs Southern States The speculation
in cotton last week doubtless was a factor con-
tributing to the weakness in stocks but here
again the strength OF the situation is reflected
.n the absence OF important failures from the
psnic among the bears on the Cotton Exchange
and from the sern-panic among the stock mar
Iet bulls. The statistical position OF cotton is
strong, and. while part OF the advance has been
due 70 manipulation, there is still considerable
basis for the current activity. 1t is safe to say
that the greater number OF spectators in cot
ton as well rs dealers and manufacturers, have
,1lisjudged the position OF cotton IN the last
year but # is not however, safe to predict that
present exorbitant prices can be maintained
throughout the summer. Many people who are
well Informed regarding last years crop and
the prospects for this years yield are never
theIess firm believers in high cotton prices
throughout the next twelve months.
The decline in Pennsylvania, New-York Gen.
trail and St Paul has been accompanied by
various reports regarding Standard Oil pressure
on the market and there are not a few operators
who believe that efforts have been made TO de-
press these shares for purposes OF accumula-
zion It is also evident that a well engineered