The St. Louis Republic., 1903-01-02
Expects the Prosperity. of the Last
Two Years to Continue at Least
Throughout This Year.
DECREASED SURPLUS IN JUNE.
Estimates Showing at End of the
Fiscal Year at Forty-Three Mil
lions. as Against Ninety
Eight Millions Last June.
RY MILTON L. ALLIES.

BY MILTON L. ALLIES.
| Assistant Secretary OF the Treasury. Represent
| ing Secretary Shaw
| Washington, Jan. 1-Strictly speaking
| January l is not convenient time from
which TO loo. back over the Government !
| fiscal operations for year. II Is on July
| l that the books for new appropriations are
| opened and the old ones closed At that
| time. also, the department takes its annual
! inventory of commodities sold abroad, ana
OF the things we buy abroad.
The calendar year by common usage has
! come to be a more familiar period of time,
and except for technical use in the keeping
of Government accounts might better be
employed than the fiscal year in comparing
the growth or decline OF trade, and the in
crease or decrease of public revenues.
owing to the repeal of the war taxes.
partiaily from January l to June 30. lsos.
and entirely from the latter date. there can
hardly bA q successful comparison Oh re-
ceipts and expenditures with the preceuiils
calendar year But there is one fact OF
considerable significance to be noted, not
withstanding-roundly. SioVep.eo war taxes
have been wiped out. and notwithstanding
. heavy expenditures during Eo..
The surplus, revenues for this last calen-
dar year have only been about Sl5."H'"o
less than in 1901. This striking feature or
the wears record for revenues and eNpendi-
lures, is due mainly to the extraordinary
Increase in customs receipts. These were
SSl 10000 in 1867. ,,
ahie Increase from the normal and ordinary
Internal Revenue sources. In spite ot .ne
total repeal of the war taxes, some OF the
Internal Revenue n districts fhsv are ara bs}ore the
repeal This is due largely to an enormous
increase in Withdrawals of tax-paid spirits.
SURPLUS OF sis,coo0r.
Secretary Shaw has estimated that the
end of the current fiscal year. June so,
1908, will show a surplus for the fiscal year
of $4,000 coo. This excess will be aoou.
$4,000 900 less than the surplus shown at
the close of the fiscal year 1907 II Is
most satisfactory showing. considering the
fact that over $lO0.o9,oco revenue has peeh
Cancelled by the war-tax repeal
or course, the increase in customs Is due
to heavier importations Some are dlsposeu
10 attribute the increase in customs TO
greater buying capacity, cohsequent upu
more widespread prosperity. whiie others
confess TO disappointment that our amman
trade balances. so vast as to excite wonaer
during the last four years. are peins
threatened by this increase of imports
The growth of customs receipts also eX
cites agitation toward diSquiet, but there Is
consolation for all in the fact that, as eA.
perience has demonstrated. it is better that
tho Government should nave each year d
If Would be. as ex-President Harrison
has said an ideal condition in the Treas,
only just as much as 1t would be required
TO pay out. But these things cannot be
adjusted with such nicely A surplus OF
II establishes confidence as to the Govern
ment's fiscal status. while deficit of even
the smallest dimensions Is likely 10 arouse
SUSPICION. This so IN lSsS. ana. no
doubt the panic of tina. year was fastened
by the knowledge that public revenues were
falling short Of public expenditures.
MIR. SHAW'S POLICY.
But a surplus In the Treasury is not alto
gether a good thing. Under our present
Suotreasury system the Secretary of the
Treasury often finds himself ut his wits
ends to so dispose of Government funds as
not to interfere with the real wants OF
trade and commerce.
The year lust closed had witnessed msny
justiaable efforts made by the Treasury
Department to keep the Treasury Itself
from becoming disturbing factor. Accu-
mulating funds. threatening not so much
the welfare OF the speculative markets as
have demanded the continuance OF relief to
the money mark It's in accordance with
policy which has been a feature OF Treas
ury financieriug for more than half u CEN
During the recent crop moving season
Secretary Shaw quite 10 the surprise OF
aged to stimulate nat:oEI rank note C.r-
cuiation more than s25oN,oGe, He also in
creased, the amount Of pubiic money; none col IN
Oo.Wo. He anticipated interest on the pub
lie debt for The current fiscal year to the
exten, of more than ooo0, subject TO a
rebate of two-tenths OF per cent a month.
This rebate brought the Treasury clear
profit of more than si0,N Finally. when !
menacirg. he bought United States 4 per
cent bonds of 1926. thus releasing about /,
Sc, coo. 0pC.
FOR CURRENCY REFORM.
By means of these various expedients the
years worst financial storms have been
weatlered. and we enter upon new year
with confidence in the Treasurer's finances
and with high hopes for even better condi- |
tons during 1903.
a concerted effort has been made to pro-
vide the country with a more elastic cur |
rency. Secretary Shaw in his annual re- |
port has strongly urged the necessity for |
such a reform Mr.. Fowler chairman Of
the Committee on Banking and Currency, |
has reported bill less likely 10 be opposed |
than the one which formerly bore his name. !
The New York Chamber OF Commerce |
has organized movement in the direction
OF modest reform, and the old Indianap polls |
Monetary Commission may be expected to !
give Its earnest support. The outlook for |.
an improved currency system IS more hope |.
full than ever before.
In all probability the Treasury will be J
called upon to pay sio.oao.oCO to the Panama
Canal Company before lssg is closed 1t will
be In excellent condition to do this, and
should ss the ne IT. take place S
the Treasury IN possession of an ample
working balance.
Conservative methods in the money mar
kets win Go much to foster and preserve the
great activities of this most prosperous
period In the country's history. Recent
warnings from high authority are hopeful I;
prosperous tines =