The Minneapolis journal. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn.) 1888-1939, 1903-01-05
CITY NEWS
TIPS FROM The SKY
The Weather Man Misses It Only
About Fifteen Times Out of
q Hundred,
And Some Of Those Misses Are Due
to Technical Rules Of
- :. the Game.

The public INDUCES a belief that
weather predictions arc as reliable as
brokers' tips or as womens prophecies
about the very most" they'll need for
Christmas. But Section Director Out
ram of the local weather shop, politely
calls this theory '.ineNact." He says that
he and his fellow guessers guess right
about eight and half out of ten times.
Some OF u.s. he interpolated. modestly,
do better than that
Eighty-five per cent Of accurate. fore
cast, however. Is the average for the
weather staff. throughout the country.
This body includes subordinate thinkers
who prognosticate for various cities with
the recklessness Of lovers. There are also
six esoteric~ OWNERS whose visions should
be declared in Hebrew. These are the:
supreme astrologer at Washington aud
the grand astrologers stationed respect
lively at Boston, Chicago. New Orleans,
Denver and San Francisco.
The six chief seers foretell cyclones ana
heavy dews for whole states at a time.
thus. advance sheets upon Minneapolis
weather are disseminated every morning
from. Chicago. :. .~.... @..'
"Real Thing" Seers. -
To these learned men the future opens
like a book for thirty-six hours in adj
vance. What will happen during the
thirty seventh hour they haven't the least
tion each morning, fasting. About break.
fast time they publish their revelations.
Such suras will all come true UP to the
evening Of the following day. For exam
pie Chicago might prophecy light snow $
and stationary temperature for southern
Minnesota. and Director Outram might
forecast stationary temperature and light
SHOWS for Observation-Disclosures phenomena,
in each instance, being heralded for
thirty-sx hours in advance. But it's not
considered discourteous in weather CIRCLES
for the lesser man to contradict the truly
great. More than once, Minnea polls has
advocated parasols on the very day that
Chicago has proposed umbrellas.
The morning prediction is evolved daily
except on Sundays and on holidays. Then
it is omitted, partly on account OF union
rules and partly because the suspension OF
mail service would not permit sufficient
number of Americans to gloat over the
Projectors wild shots. Yet Monday aid
other days after are not always time
for ignorance and apprehension. The
supreme forecaster. as servile as all
kings. can take no official rest. Personal
or by proxy he must think up something
about the weather.. His. thoughts ex-
tend to the succeeding twenty -four hours
He scatters the invention by telegraph tc
every newspaper published the nex1
morning. But predictions strictly loca
may be made on Mondays and on days
after holidays by any old settler. III
need not fear official competition. =.
Where Predictions Are Easy.
In California the weather Is so old
always tell what 1T will do at certain
hours. In that state accordingly, IS PEI
cent of Uncle SANS guesses come as tru'
as Pharao obs dreams IT,
And. indeed. even IS per cent Of happ,
hits does not accurately demonstrate zth,
E1oCc4
the Is per cent Of nominal failures in
cludes many forecasts that are approx
tmatcly right:
Such representations. however hay
been rigidly interpreted. For example
the prediction that tomorrow would b
colder in Minneapolis than to-day. woul
be adjudged inaccurate if the mercury Re
Tomorrow no more than s or degrees
Colder" in the ear. of the agriculture
department, means at leat 10 degrees les
warm. II cold wave was predicted TO
this city tomorrow, and the mercur
should drop 35 degrees to 1 degree abov
zero. the populace would chrlsten Nj
Outran an Isaiah: But his department
would gruffly ask. Where IS that thcr
wave?' Washington could not detect tn
Arctic undulaton because. according t
the little pink book, "a cold wave is a ia
of at least 20 degrees in temperature
some point below zero Of the Farenhe
scale -
Predictions Easily Wrecked.
If, again. a, forecast official should pull
lish his belief In CONTINUED fair or clear
weather. and 100 of inch Of rain shout
be coralled by meteorological mechanis
within thirty-six hours, the official wou
be chided for betraying d trustful poop
with his reckless imaginat ton
At one point. however the forecast
may be as Delphic as Apol1os priests. +
can predict fair weather or "cleal
weather and pat his own locks proudly
it doesn't rain next day. although Il
sun may remain Theoretically sealed: IL
the weather bureau is a government
pessmist Under no conditions cam it 81
sunshine. If any day turns out cloudy
cloudless. each happening is equally a SUI
prise to the department.. Its most chez
full moment brings simply the convictit
that the heavens fair or. "clear'' will II
be cloudy enough for rain or snow. r.