The San Francisco call., 1903-09-17

TIE HARVEST IS THE PRINCIPAL FAC
TOR AT THE MOMENT
The New York circular Of Henry CIews says.
'UnQuestionably there are number Of good
railroad securities which are selling below in
trinsic value even afte- making fun allow
auce for the differences between conditions
RuiKing losses OF over $1,000 COO 0O0 during that
period. is FAR beyond any changes present OF
prospective. In The business or industrial situa-
tion- such decline represented absolutely
nothing but the cXtrenitles of the financial
@ sasig @ ST aS5usd theTe i is seem hotbine fG eafS o
prevent values recovering their normal level
irt money. crop and business prospects. Should
these prove favorable We are likely 10 see d
Ecod rally in prices during the next few
months, though. on the other hand. any disas-
t"r IN these quarters would bly, force q
renewal of the decline
-'Just now the harvest is the chief considera-
danger from frcst and u another two weeks
tl. entire erou wiz be- safe. The September
report Ot the Department of Agriculture, Just
issued. indicates a yield Of 2-2s9 800 600 bush
els, agaiust 2.525. 500. coo bushels. last years
,ated an around. Cotton also has thus far
he- fortunate In escaping from frost damage.
bis IS not record breaking crop year but
there is promise of plenty for home and for
export ~ good prices. which means profitable
---3- ~ ~ - - - :, Z &c Ll-st IS Eesois ,, HoIe %
o.-N ~ a-t--S 70 INC co1iltfg as q Mhole lnan
tEeessiEeiy blg crops al unrrohtable figures
that the farming classes are exceedingly pros
porous.
How viii this affect the monetary situation.
which has been a source of anxiety throughout
tho yearE Experience shows that dangers as
long foIeseen as this are usually much dinin-
ished when they arrive. II not wholly pre-
vented by anticipation. The West. IN spite OF
its growing independence viii unquestiOnably
make large demands upon the East for funds
TO meet The crops, and this movement has al
ready begun IL is unfortunate that recent
Strengthening Of bank reserves and it is quite
likely that sharp furries may be incurred in
the money market before the return currency
Very soon we shah be importing gold from
Europe though rhe advance In the Bank OF
England rate VIII probably shift or demands
TelIef T3ofh London and Berlin haze ohIfgs-
ti0ns 10 meet that viii prevent our making de
mands upon those centers, but our credit abroad
is good and our borrowings there have been
fresh accommodate lions The advance in the
Bank Of England rate seems likely 70 delay
gold imports somewhat. but by the beginning
0f next month al least the precious metal
ought 10 be moving this way. Europe requires
o1I e9t'yn ~ oaeLs' 49, al.l aa soon a. ne new
crop Is available we may expect considerable
shipments at good prices, the recent break. OF
course. being favorable 70 an export demand.
he general business situation Is excep-
fiouallv sound. Wall streets antics have pro-
duced an unusually conservative feeling in
business circles, anQ lnaL Is excellent insurance
AGAINST excesses during the coming season.
There are signs OF reaction IN the iron trade.
prise diminish. but elsewhere there are no signs
of contraction. except in cotton manufacturing.
where the cotton corner exaggerated the effects
~ an actual scarcity Of cotton. The effect Of
these tendencies is already shown in clearing
house returns which IN August showed a de-
cline of II per cent compared with last wear
for the entire country. II IS significant, how
ever. that the shrinkage was confined en-
tirely 20 the Middle Atlantic States the West
ern and Southern States stfl reporting salts
factory gains the Pacific States leading New
York is stim headquarters for dependency. the
August clearings here declining u per cent
Whiie al other cities outside OF New York COM
bined showed an increase OF over per cent.
THE stock market outlook. all things con-
sidered. Is fairly encouraging. A more hopeful
feeling prevails in banking circles though con-
serTatism is still the policy there"