New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1903-12-06
NEWS OF TWO CAPITALS.
AFFAIRS IN LONDON.
Fcrying Viescs of Crisis IN Far East
-Mr. Bryan'S Trip.
6sneelal TO The Nsv-Yors Tribune by French canIsl


Copyright: 1903: Bv The Tribune AssociationD
London. Dec. 5.-Fleet Street has remained
more 2essimistic than the City respecting the
conflict between Russia and Japan The barom-
eter has not fallen on the exchanges. although
the war correspondents have been setting out
for Japan, and oninous forecasts have been
printed in regard 10 the momentous meeting
OF the Diet Among diplomatists there has
been general agreement that war will be
avoided. Their first reason IS that the news
papers are never Well informed and must
be wrong In assuming that war is IN
evitabls Their second reason is that the
Car detests war and will order at the last
moment the concessions which viii satisfy Japan
These grounds are not conclusive, since the
newspapers have correspondents IN Japan and In
European capitals who know their business and
the situation may be forced II the japanese be-
come weary OF Russian procrastination and de-
clare war on the theory that it must come
some time and that their own chances will not
improve with delay The diplomatic influence
Of Great Britain and France is strongly eXerted
in favor OF the maintenance Of peace. but ap-
parently a compromise cannot be arranged un-
less Russia is prepared 10 allow the japanese
TO entrench themselves on the mainland Of
Corea and Japan is willing to acquesce in the
permanent occupation Of Manchuria by Russia,
The immediate cause Of danger is the excitabil-
fly Of the japanese when the results Of dip
lomatic negotiations are disclosed at the meet
ing OF the Diet. on the other hand the Japan
ese Government must shrink from prolonged
military campaign and Russia must find war
inconvenient at present. and. Furthermore, two
Western powers are deeply interested in the
preservation Of peace. France is not prepared TO
break away from her Russian alliance. yet
does not court q naval with Great Britain,
which may become imminent under the condi-
ton Of the Anglo-Japanese alliance. This con-
tingency has been distinctly forecast by the
purchase Of two powerful Gillian battleships
by the Admiralty. This IS not only an ex-
tremely good bargain but wise precaution in
view Of the possibilities of naval warfare and
the negotiations from both Russia and Japan
for the purchase Of those ships
The foreign complications have diverted pub
lie interest from the fiscal controversy. Debate
continues in the provinces, but there are unnlis-
taxable signs that Mr.. Chamberlain has not yet
carried the country and that Mr.. Balfour per
ceives the necessity Of proonging the inter
reguum. Cabinet meetings have been concerned
with foreign affairs. purchase OF the Gillian
ships and the programme for the session and
opening In February. The Unionist members
Of Parliament assert that Parliament viii not
assumption that the support OF the Irish mem
bers has been secured by the promise Of bill
for the creation Of Roman Catholic university
at Dublin The Irish members themselves nod
their heads complacently and intimate that Mr..
Wyndham has already conferred with them
respecting the university bill that the National
ist support may be secured in this way an
offset to the reflections Of the Free Trade Union
lists. The Roman Catholic university scheme
may follow the Land bin and another year a
Home Rule Parliament may be thrown in. Eng
lishmen are entirely outclassed by Irishmen in
the game Of politics
Interesting scientific discussions have followed
\ Sir William Ramsay's address the trans
u mutation OF metals and Nine. Curie's exploit In
receiving the Davy medal for the discovery of
radum has been accounted as an offset to Miss
Caves failure TO obtain the privileges OF a bar
rister az the English bar but the most i'm
portant question of the day is the cotton supply.
The shortage IN the American supply after the
recent cotton corner fills Lancashire with dis
may. for apart from the sharp advance in prices
there is q general admission among manu-
facturers that cotton cannot be obtained for
existing contracts. and that factories must be
closed and working people left without employ
ment.
The various incidents this year. beginning
with heartess speculstfons and ending with
alarming shortage in the raw material sup
ply. have convinced Lancashire that a move
ment must be organized for developing the vast
cotton growing resources OF the British Empire
and releasing England from dependence on
American supply. This is the moral drawn at
Liverpool and Manchester where great excite
rnent prevails and a hard winter is forecast
Statisticians demonstrate that the American
supply win speedily be inadequate for filling the
American demand, and that II viii not matter
whether Lancashire has its own intelligence
bureau IN the United States If there be made
quate stock for export. There is a popular agi-
tation IN favor Of empire grown cotton which
cannot be controlled by foreign spectators II
may lead TO organized measures for restoring
the cotton industry TO the British West Indies.
promoting the expansion OF British colonies In
West Africa and charging the cotton growing
area Of Egypt and India.
Mr. Bryan has disappeared from England
without disclosing the objects OF his European
journey. He is an interchangeable traveller hav-
ing included Ireland Scotland and the Mid
lands IN q mad revel Of sightseeing. and per-
sonally investigating the methods of English
canvassng. the fiscal question and the processes
Of local administration. His journey win be
exteaded from France 10 Germany, and he will
have only single day IN England before re-
turning to America The handsome dinner ar
ranged by T. P. O'Connor at the National Lib
eraI Club gave him a final opportunity for ex-
planning his mission. and with so genial host he