The sun., 1903-01-05
THE FINANCIAL SITUATION.

Of the observer Of financial affairs at the
end Of the year is that the prices Of securities
in general are only slightly removed from
the prices OF twelve months before. The
quotations OF some Of the Industrial shares
and Of stocks having narrow marked
show considerable change; but the prices of
the stocks known in Wall Street as active
have, In the majority Of cases, hardly altered
from the figures recorded on Dec 81, lSoi'
more than might be accomplished by
single days brisk trading on the Stock
Exchange. Two reflections at once occur
regarding this phenomenon. One is the
value Of calmness. patience and deliberation
In either making investments or conducting
speculation-an emphasis. simply. OF the
old Wall Street maxim that the market
Ia always here What great events have
swept over the financial stage in the last
year. convulsing the stock market with
alternative spasms Of exhilaration and
depression, The coal strike; the litigation
directed against the Northern Securities
Company, and the legality OF the United
states Steel Corporations bond conversion
scheme; the end Of the Boer war, with ITS
dreams Of an increased output Of gold from
the Rand; the great freebooting adventure
in Louisville and Nashville, successful in
the end but almost producing dreaded
market corner" the cessation ofthe ANAL
gamated Copper Companys attempt TO
sustain the price Of copper. and the subse-
ouent break in the shares OF all the copper.
producing companies; the smash OF what
will be historically known, with more or
less correct ness, as the Webb-Meyer Syn
dicate; the great boom of the midsummer
and the money stringency OF the fall with
its known disasters and rumors Of failures
and financial embarrassmen's how many
times in the course OF all this has II seemed
to those having interests at stake in the
security market that prices were about
either to sink out Of sight or to rise above
the clouds? How many scores Of millions
Of dollars have been made and lost as the
result Of the fluctuations in prices that these
events caused? And vet, after all the
tumult, quoted values stand almos' un-
changed.
The other. and, perhaps, the more inter-
esting consideration, is whet her the station
ary character OF the market indicates. In
the phrase of Mr., James j. Hill, that We
have passed the summit Of our pros.
perty. Anoth7r way OF putting the
question is, ii actual values OF securities
as distinguished from market values have
increased or decreased during the year,
while market prices have remained un-
changed or, at least. have changed but
slightly, should these market prices there
fore, rise or fall from their present level? II
is obviously rot within the province or
ability Of the writer, or within the province
or ability Of anybody to settle this question
so decisively that there will lie general
acouiescence in the disposition made OF ii.
The matter is one that every investigator
must conclude for himself. The stock
market now has very clearly what II has nrt
had for a long time. namely. two Sides.
Strong arguments are adduced for lower
as well as higher prices by shrewd and able
capitalists and thinkers. as well a. by theo-
reticai students Of finance. l&f tins idea,
only, be thrown out here a. hint and a sug-
gestion Considering the entire develop
ment Of our financial and industrial con-
Germs since the ending of the last period
Of depression by the defeat of Bryan IN
1895, may it not be possible that neither
remarkably higher nor lower prices await
the stock market in the immediate future,
but that financial affairs are III period of
equilibrium and that the best and wise,t
thing that can happen is that this equilibrir IN
should lie prolongedf The impulses maxi
ing for active trade and specula'ion-'he
increased capitaizetions. the great cor
porate combinations. the stock market
booms, and the like-have 50 pushed them
selves to extreme limits and evinced ten
dencies Of such obvious dan ger that beyond
any oues, ion the il rstinctive precautions
and rest rictions OF nature now confront
them The fear Of a thorough upset In the
financial world. or, IL other words. OF panic
that was acute little while ago. has passed
away. There seems no reason to believe
that the real business prosperity Of the
country will not stay for an indefinite time
TO come Nevertheless. would II not / 6
we'll for spectators to observe the admori-
tions that have been given, and. quietinG
their efforts, allow the business Of the
| country time to grow up to the new creations
| of capital that have been made? II may
| not be putting il too stror gly. inGeei. to say
that the caution already spoken so modestly
by natural laws is, for all it's modesty and
pentleness, not 40 much a clution a. a
| command.
This view Of the matter is perhaps en-
| forced by considering those events OF
| forces that have been most prominent in
| the financial world during the last year
| First among them stands the varied and
splendid tale of our indust rial and COM
| mercial aff1uence In reviewing II one
must constantly use superlatices. Stats
tically II breaks all previous records. It's
| footings run into billions Of dollars Crops
worth over 81. 500. 900. .OOO the earnings OF
| one great manufacturing company alone
amounting to more than the declared
| dividends Of all the railroads in the land
| on every side buildings rising, factories
spinning and crowded fregh; trains strug.
| Cling for space upon the rails! The iron
| trade il still by common consent regarded
| as the barometer OF all other business
and IL this ancient test holds, how bright
is the prospect for a continuance OF
mercantile and industrial vigor In GER
| tain lines Of iron and steel manufacture
! there Ia evidence of overproduction: but
AZ regards the leading and substantia
| products the mills have the business oi
| three-uuarters Of the dawnirg year fully
| contracted for This state Of affairs has
| of course. existed in previous times, and The
| iron manufacturers have then found II
| difficult to deliver their goods; that is tc
say, 'ortlers ahead" were cancelled. But