New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1903-12-29
GERMAN PROSPERITY.

An interesting report from Mr., Mason, the
American Consul General at Berlin, indicates
that industrial and commercial prosperity is
gradually being restored to the German Empire.
For the last three years, our readers know,
there has been general depression. Wecannot say
that full recovery has been effected Business
seldom rises again as quickly as it has fallen;
but the upward tendency is Enthusiastically
marked and has already made material prog
ress, This is shown by the movement OF indus
trial stocks. In the United States the prices of
securities in Wall Street are often taken as
standard with which to gauge prosperity. 1t is
not always. by any means, trustworthy stand
ard, yet it is not without value In Germany
it is more trustworthy, because stocks there are
less speculative than here and are less subject
to artificial manipulation.
Now, Mr.. Mason gives us table of values OF
the stocks of twenty-five representative COM
panies, including the empires chief electrical
works, iron and steel works, coal and iron
mines and street railroads, showing their prices
on April IL, 1000, before the great crash on Sep
tember %, 1901, after the crash; on December
81, 1902 when recovery had begun, and on
November 90, 1903, the latest available date
before the preparation of the report. From this
it appears that every one Of them suffered
serious loss between the first two dates, though
ing mill fell from 25S.75 to $40, while the Con-
eordia Mining Company fell from 1880 to 343.
Between the second and third dates all but five
showed gains. -Four of the five which showed
further losses were electrical concerns, and the
fifth was the Coucordia Mining Company which
had lost so little at first but which by the third
date given fell 10 2S3. The gains of the other
seventeen varied in amount, not one of them
rising to the original figures which prevailed
on the first date. Finally, between the third
and fourth dates every one of the twenty-five
showed a gain, and of the five which had con-
tinued to fall between the second and third
dates all but one the Sienens & Halske cor
poration, showed an increase above the second
date. Two OF the twenty-five stood on the
fourth date just where they had stood on the
first before the fall The average price of the
twenty-five on the first date was 2T12S. on the
second It was 154.54, on the third it was 1872
and on the fourth it was 20S.91
The causes of this recovery of values are
varied. Mr.. Mason dwels upon the three chief
ones. One is the favorable progress that is be-
ing made toward the negotiation of new com
mercial treaties on the basis of the new tariff
coupled with the expectation that the new tariff
system, which will go into force some time next
year, will cenduce to increased prosperity. The
second is the fact that some Of the electrical
manufacturing concerns have made large and
valuable contracts for work in Mexico South
America and elsewhere The third is the nat
ural cause that the panic has run its course and
reaction toward renewed prosperity has set in
These causes should continue to be operative
for some time until prosperity is fully restored
10 its former basis Nevertheless. it is evident
that the rising tide might be disturbed if not
wholly checked, by some untoward occurrence
such as commercial quarrel with some impor-
tant power or a war which would unfavorably
affect German interests.
In this consideration we may find an explana-
ton Of Germany's obvious desire for main
tenance Of peace in Eastern Asia. Whether
or not war there would directly involve the
empire as a combatant it would certainly in
terfere with its large and profitable commerce.
and would entail upon 1t much expense for
military preparations TO meet possible contin-
gencies. Besides, if Russia were beaten bv
Japan as she well might be- her value to Ger
many as trade customer would be much i'm
paired. 1t is therefore the part Of enlightened
and farseeing self-interest for the German gov
eminent TO advise German bankers not TO pro-
mote hostilities by lending Russia the .'sinews
of war" and TO exert its whole influence for the
maintenance of peace In the Far East