New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1903-11-05
NOVEL WEATRER FORECAsTs.

In the introduction to the regular meteOrolog-
icaI forecast sent out from Washington a few
evenings ago there was an unusual announce
ment Coupled with a certain set of conditions
observed in the British Isles was the generally
stagnant state of things which had prevailed OF
late in the United States. Precedents haG led
to the belief that within five or six days after
the disappearance of the situation first men,
toned a change would occur on the western
side of the Atlantic. There was reason TO think,
the report said. that ere long a more rapid al
formation of high and low pressures would be
initiated in America.
The most noteworthy thing about this state
ment is that it betrays a disposition to extend
the range of government forecasts beyond a
period Of twenty-fOur or thirty-six hours.
Every one is familiar with the audacity of a
class of prophets who predict the weather
weeks and months ahead, but who are not
connected with any official bureau. They are
amateurs of local repute, who win notoriety
among the uneducated by an occasional lucky
hit, but whose systems of calculation are de-
fective. Such men stand in the same relation
to the science of meteorology as quacks TO that
of medicine. Their utterances have no weight
with those who are identified with government
weather bureaus, who have had a thorough
training in atmospheric physics. and whose
methods will stand the test Of time An an
nouncement like that just quoted is a very diff
ferent thing. 1t shows that some of the true
principles Of long range work have been dis
covered, and excites hope that in time IL may
be practicable to issue frequent limitations OF
the same character that will be thoroughly
trustworthy.
Should further experience verify the sound
ness Of the particular statement here referred
to, it will freshly illustrate the necessity Of
looking to the east, as well as to the west, in
formulating opinions about coming weather.
In general way it may be said that all of the
cold waves and hot waves and most of the rain
and wind storms which visit the Atlantic States
and New-England come from the interior of the
continent or else from the Pacific Coast. 1t
will not do to confne scrutiny to those regions,
however. Occasionally there is an invasion
from the West Indies. Moreover, a tropical
| cyclone is sometimes damned up against tue
Carolina coast, and even forced inland against
its will by persistent high barometric pressures
near Bermuda. By like influences the path Of a
storm which has come down the lakes will
sometimes be blocked On reaching Northern
New-York. and prolonged precipitation in one
place viii ensue. The situation over the Cana
dian maritime provinces last June was largely
! responsible for that continuous rainfall in New
York State for sixteen days. Already It begins
10 look as if it would be necessary to watch
Northern Europe as well as regions lying much
nearer.
In fact, experts will probably not get at the
bottom Of the whole matter until they discover
the relations existing between conditions pre-
vailing in America and continents as far dis
tant as Asia and Australia. whether the infu-
ences which disturb the atmosphere be simply
thermal or include magnetic and other solar
radiations, the effects should be widespread, if
not universal. If the meteorologist can once
discover only part Of any regular sequence of
events, 1t may help him TO find other members
OF the SYStem.