The sun., 1903-11-03
Arc the skies Clearing In the Far
East

The pretext for the reoccupation Of
Mukden by Russian troops is that the
Chinese authorities, lately installed there,
were unable to maintain order, which
is probable enough. We do not be-
lieve, however, that step likely to irri-
tate the war party at Toxic would have
been taken at this time unless it were
known that the negotiations between
Russia and Japan had taken favorable
turn, and that definite agreement be-
tween the two countries was in sight
What would be the purport of such
an agreement is obvious. The Japanese,
on their part, would recognize the inn
practicability of leaving the Manchurian
Railway and the large towns on or near
the line at the mercy of marauders
whom the Chinese authorities have shown
themselves powef1ess to repress, and
the consequent necessity Of deferring
Russia's evacuation of Manchuria for an
indefinite period. Such an agreement
would have TO be made in the teeth of
the war party at Toxic, which has per-
sistently demanded the immediate full
flment of the promise made by the St
Petersburg Government, that the evacu-
alton of the three Manchurian provinces
should begin on Oct. s. In return for
this concession. Russia would be eN-
pected to covenant to refrain from en-
croachments on the territorial integrity
and political independence of Corea, and
henceforth to regard that country as ex-
clusively within Japan's sphere of inhu-
ence. That will be, no doubt, the basis
of the understanding at which Baron
DE RosEN, the Russian Minister at Toxic,
and the Mikado's Minister for Foreign
Affairs will arrive, if the negotiations
in which they have been long engaged
are to have pacific outcome.
The peace thus secured can, never
theless, be but temporary Intelligent
Japanese are under no illusions on that
point. Between the Russians firmly
planted in Manchuria and the Japanese
established in virtual control of Corea,
an ultimate collision is inevitable. The
interests of Japan and Russia in the Far
East are essentially irreconcilable, and
conflict between them will prove, in the
end, irrepressible 1t is also true, as
the war party at Toxic has maintained,
that Japan has less to gain by delay than
has Russia, which will devote the in
terval secured by diplomacy to the i'm
provement Of the Trans-Siberian Rail
way for military purposes. Even those
Japanese, however, who have insisted
that it would be wiser to fight now than
to postpone the contest to few years
hence recognize that modern warfare
cannot be conducted without money,
and that their country would be dis
qualified for a long struggle, unless she
could rely upon obtaining pecuniary as
sjstance from Great Britain. No assur-
ances of such financial support have
been prOcurable, for the reason that the
Balfour Government is preoccupied at
home, and is desirous of averting an
outbreak of hostilities in the Far East.
Another consideration would check
the ascenGc1cy Of the war party ct
Toxic. Under the terms of the treaty
with Great Britain the Japanese cannot
claim the aid of their ally in war wherein
they themselves have been the aggres-
sors, Yet they cannot easily provoke
the Russians to an act of unmistakable
aggression, because the latter, in their
turn. are subjected to the restraining
influence of their treaty with France.
Under that treaty the French are not
bound to cooperate with the Car in n
contest wherein he has been the ag-
gressor. it is true that such stipulations
might not be strictly construed, if either
France or England were disposed TO
welcome complications that might bring
them into collision with one another.
As a matter of fact, n contrary DISPOSE
tion exists. France and England have
never been 90 friendly, since the outset
of the CriBnean War, as they are to-day.
We may be sure, therefore, that all the