Omaha daily bee., 1903-02-08
Early Estimates.

No authentic figures have been given 1ut
by our Brazilian consular agents regarding
the present crop, 19021903. the marketing
OF which will be commenced on July ! OF
this year. In his report OF July II Consul
General Seeger estimated It at 10 900 600
bags. or nearly 5000 900 bags less than the
yield Of the previous season. In mis- last re-
port he raises this estimate to II 900 600
bags. Some American authorities have
stated it higher. while others have made II
less. The consul generals figures may,
therefore. stand Though considerably short
Of the yield in 1902, II is still an enormous
crop.
II Ia peculiar Of the coffee tree that as
soon az a new crop blooms. which in Brazil
is some time in October. the experts can
make very close estimates Of the forthcom-
ing yield Already the new Brazilian crop
the harvest of 1SO3-1SO4) promises to be
considerably larger than the present one.
the marketing OF which closes June 80, 1909
Mr.. Seeger estimates the crop of 1s03-19e4
at 1900 600 bags. based on expert informa-
tion. Various other statements regarding
the crop leads to the conclusion that the
yield viii more likely exceed than fall be-
low these figures. II is obvious that no fg-
ures obtainable are absolutely reliable, but
It may be taken for granted thRt Consul
General Seeger's estimates are carefully
made in the public interests and entirely
free from buIlish or bearish market in
nuences. He expresses the opinion that
considerable decrease even from the present
low prices Of coffee is inevitable in the
near future
These are the data fairly reliable, upon
which il based the belief that coffee will
continue TO rule cheap for several years to
come. and probably much cheaper than
prevailing Wholesale prices. The visible
supply Of cofiee in this country is, in round
numbers. about 200. 600 bags greater than at
this time last year. hut Just now with a de-
cided tendency 10 decrease. The importa-
tions Of coffee from all quarters OF the globe
IN the month of November were only So
7s7 .52s pounds. as against 100 .s41. .671 pounds
IN November, 1901. This falling OF by more
than one-half has steadied prices at the
ports Of entry for the time being.
Cnuse of Low Prices.
In view Of these statistics OF production
the unprejudiced observer will easily un-
derstsnd that the present unprecedented low
price Of coffee has resulted only from nat
ural causes. Nevertheless, 1t is gathered
from Consul General seeger's reports that
the great mass Of Brazilian people and most
OF their newspapers hold the American
coffee exporter and speculRtor responsible
for the depreciation In coffee prices, and
are crying for reprisals.
The fact is however. as Mr.. Seeger
thinks, that the returns derived by pro-
dueers from their coffee crop-low as they
are In comparison 10 those secured some
years ago. when the Brazilian planters
could count with measurable certainty on
an annual proht Of so per cent-are prob
ably stiil 20 to 25 per cent greater than
they would be II prices were not sustained
through artificial means by a combination
of influential spectators in the United
States He says that whatever view the
American consumer may take Of the situs-
tion, the Brazilian coffee planter and dealer
instead Of vindictively blaming their north
srn consumers for the present hard times.
0aused by the coffee collapse ought 10 be
thankful 10 American spectators who Rrti-
hciaIly hold up the price Of coffee at the
expense OF consumers. Moreover, they
should be even more thankful 10 these
Americans. who. through the employment
OF large capital and excellent methods of
preparing coffee for the market. and then
distributing It. have 50 largely In late years
increased the American demand for this
Brazilian product.
conee is nov 20 Brazil what wheat and
cotton were 70 the United States before We
became a great competitive manufacturing
cOuntry-its chief exportAble product The
worlds annual consumption is about OO0.-
O00. 600 pounds. Brazil produces about
three fourths OF this aggregate and the
United States. the greatest coffee eOnsum-
ing nation In the world. buys nearly one
half Of all BraEil's output
American Imports.