The semi-weekly messenger. [volume] (Wilmington, N.C.) 1897-1908, 1903-12-29

Pekin. December 23.-That there
is only u faint prospect that war be
tween Japan and Russia can be
ayerted is said to be the opinion of
the two members of the diplomatic
CORPS at the Chinese capital, whose
opinions regarding the present criti-
cal condition Of affairs in the far
east are probably most valuable.
namely. Japanese Minister Uchida,
and Sir Ernest Mason satOw- Their
views, in fact are no secret.
Minister Satow was connected with
the British diplomatic service in
Japan for a quarter o. 4 century. He
ia one of the greatest living author
tiles on japanese history and litera-
ture. and is in constant cOmmunica-
ton with the foremost statesmen of
Japan. He is quoted as saying that
any one who imagines that Japan
will not fight for what h conceives
to be her greatest interests does not
know the Japanese people Minister
Uchida is an adherent of the Young
Japan party" and has always advo-
clteI war. if necessary. to secure the
evacuation Of Manchuria.
The optimistic feeunss in some
quarters concerning war between
Japan and Russia are not shared by
the ola diplomats n Pekin, whose
knowledge of the present situation of
81 -~-+=tr-- ,Ir;- 1-=r5,, 10 tho
highest consideration. It Is positively
known that the Japanese government
has drawn the line for a settlement,
beyond which it will not make any
material changes. and that she is de-
teTmined to fight, before yielding
what she considers to be her vital
interests Tt is believed that unless
Russia comedies important points, an
other exchange of notes Will precipi-
tate matters. 1t is also believed that
Japan viii resent arrangements hold
ing in allegiance the question Of the
evacuation of Manchuria, which vas
one of the terms of the proposed ar
rangement recently announced from
ST. Petersburg. and which. it is now
supposed, was intended by the Rus
sian government as a 'Feeler." This
would be q violation of expressed
DIelGtS given 10 JdDdu anu NIIIlId-
The most dangerous factors in the
situation are the confidence of the
Russian officials in the far east hat
a war would mean an easy victory for
Russia and the challenging ton of
the Russian officials and newspapers.
The intelligent hines officials
await developments with the deepest
anxiety. They foreSce the many
perilS menacing him in the event
- Nc anI tho nnCCFhllTtIAO thu q
partition of the empire may result
from China's inability to maintain
the neutrality of her harbOrs and
subjects.
The younger officials and the news
papers discuss the possibilities of an
alliance between China and Japan.
but the only available Chinese troops
are the $4,000 unprecedented men
of Yuan-Shi-kai. (whO was recently
appointed commander of the imperial
army and navy h might fight
under foreign leaders. but whose
present officers are incompetent and
of doubtful courage.
Sir Robert Hart. director of the i'm
perial Chinese maritime customs said
today that he feared him would be
the chief sufferer should war occur
for she might be ground between the
two miIIstOnes.
The d~ecadence Of the Chinese gov
eminent has never been more COM
pletely displayed than in these times
WIN her ministers go from legation
to legation implorirg yOunger gov
ernments to help China. without any
Thought of China's helping herself.
There is absolutely no strong man
among the ruling ministers-nO
Prince Chung. Marquis Tseng nor Ii
Hung Chang-aH are venerable con
Se~rVatiVeS. like Prime Ching
WU Ting Fang. the we'll known
ex-minister to the United States tells
his official friends that he despairs
of China's future. I see no hope"
the empire sooner or later is newt
abIs-'
London. December ga dispatch
to the Reuter- Telegram Company
from Toxic
~"Incessant activity prevails at mil
itary headquarters. The transports
and other arrangements are COM
plete. The government is calmly
awaiting the Russian reply. which it
IS hoped, will be forthcoming without
delay.
Press dispatches from Corea re-
port continued disturbances at Mok-
pho and the outbreak Of a Tong
Hak insurrection in Shol-La-To pro-
vince. The Tong HakS are a party
of ~malcontents whose activity was
the cause of war between China and
Japan. These reports create uneasi-
ness
Berlin. December 23.-The German
foreign office, in estimating the prob
abilities of war in the far east, fixes
ats attention at this homer on Great
Britain, rather than on Japan, for it
is recognized that Japan is only
waiting for Great Britain to give the
word before beginning hostilities. a
new and even portentuous element
in the situation, as it is looked upon
here. is the rising feenng In Great
Britain that Russia must yield or