The Birmingham age-herald., 1903-11-13
Predicts Twenty Million Tons
 for 191O-11 REVIEWS THE LAST DECADE
This Section Has Advantage Over Some Northern Furnaces Because 1t Is One Dollar a Ton
 Nearer TideWater.

l Col A. NJ Shook of Nashville, pioneer in the Birmingham district and an ac- cepted authority on the Iron and steel industry was asked yesterday by an Age Herald reporter if he had read Ed l ward Atkinson's forecast of iron produc- tion which appeared recently in the Bal timore Manufacturers Record. He re- piled in the affirmative. T agree entirely with MT. Atkinson" said Colonel Shook l regarding the probable production and consumption of pig iron in this country during the next decade. Mir Atkinson says, however. that we will have tenn porary' reduced production and con- 1 sumption.
 Uppermost Question.
 "The question which interests this sec 1 ton of the country most" said Colonel Shook, "is. what will be the production, consumption and price for the next four or five years? Upon the established fact. not theory, that the history of the iron industry has been repeating itself for the l last century, 1t is absolutely certain that we will have in the near future, lower prices and lessened consumption.
 Going back only two decades reveals the fact that during the periods of great l activity production and consumption in- crease abnormaly. In 1892, this country produced nearly twelve million tons of pig iron. In 1896. production and con- sumption had fallen to six and one half million tons. Within the last twelve months, we have been producing and con suming at the rate of eighteen million tons per annum. If production and con sumption should be ratable with that of the last decade it is possible that we will reach time in the next three or four years when the production will fall to ten or twelve million tons.
 High Water Marks. "In other words, take the high water mark of 1892 with twelve million tons and high water mark of 1902-3 as eighteen million tons and it shows an increase l from one decade to another of 50 per l cent. With 1896 as the bedrock bottom of the last depression it shows that pro- duction and consumption were practica- l ditions apply to the next era of low prices, it Is possible that production and consumption will fall to ten or eleven million tons. Reasoning from the same standpoint will show that 1t Is possible that we will not only reach twenty mill lion tons in 1910, but that in 1911-12 we may reach more than twenty-five million l tons-as that would only be an increase of 50 per cent over the last high water mark
 | South's Consolation.
 "The consolation for the south in this forecast is two fold. In the first place 1t has not largely increased production in the last ten years but our plants all weathered the storm of the last depres- 1 sion and are in better shape today than l ever before. In the second place, we occupy the distinctive advantage of the export business at least for pig iron be- ing one dollar ton nearer tide water than any of the furnaces north that are west of the Alleghennies.
 Another Advantage. "I might add that we have another ad- l vantage. that is we are surrounded by country that will suffer less from a manufacturers depression than any oth- CT portion of the United States. We are considered an agricultural section and the remunerative prices that our agricul- tural products are commanding give us relatively a great advantage. We must realize that we cannot make conditions and that being true the only thing we can do Is to meet them. In other words, as the old doggerel says:
 No matter what we sing or say, l The world rolls on in the same old way; l And he who would possess his soul I Must hold on tight and let her roll l"