The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1903-05-11
THE FINANCIAL SITUATION.

the stock market last week very unsatis-
factory. They were duly impressed at
the beginning OF the week with the favorable
character Of business and speculative con-
ditions, and bought stocks rather freely:
but when they discovered that the general
speculative spirit In the country was still
cold and that the time was not yet for
prices to 70 up by leaps and bounds. they
were greatly disguised, and inclined not
only to dispose Of whatever shares ofstock
they had on which profit had accumulated,
but TO sell a few shares borrowed from their
neighbors. Hence naturally, good deal
of talk was heard Of crop damage, gold ship
ments, foreign wars. labor troubles and
various other very bad things. All these
pretexts for selling stocks were, of course.
trivial 1t is clear that only small damage
has been done to winter wheat. No inteli-
gent person expects that the almost per-
feet condition of this crop shown at the
opening of spring can be maintained with
out flaw until the July harvest. but
the simple fact to-day is that. allowing
for all injury either present or that can
fairly be said to be prospective. the outlook
for the winter wheat crop is for crop
larger by $1,000 900 bushels than was ever
raised in this country before. Prospects
of gold shipments never scared anybody
except somebody who wanted to be scared,
when money was offered at per cent. on call
and at ~ per cent for sixty and ninety days
and at per cent. for eight and nine months;
nor are gold exports. for that matter. at
all assured The foreign exchange market
last week acted like a market that was
running away from gold shipments Each
tina tho ahiy, min i,nipt Nrs rcnnha6
thing occurred to remove it further of.
The bringing out Of the Transvaal loan In
England has, OF course. complicated the
foreign exchange situation greatly. The
loan was issued on very favorable terms
and has been heavily oversubscribed.
This has caused the Bank of England's rate
to be upheld at a figure far above that war
ranted by the banks proportion Of reserve
in hand to liabilities; and it has caused,
likewise, a general inflow of Continental
funds to London. which has had the effect,
thus far, Of frustrating gold exports on
the triangular basis from this side. When
the first instalment of subscriptions to
the loan is paid in, the English Bank will
know where II Ia at; in the meantime. natu-
rally. a great deal of money is kept tied up.
The foreign cables are very clear upon this
point.
Similarly, there is nothing in the Turkish
or Russian political situation that need be
alarming. 1t seems as though there had
been great deal of misunderstanding
about the Russian aggression. so called.
in Manchuria. At any rate, no nation but
Japan will ever think of taking up arms
about it, and Japan is in no condition to
make disturbance in the present dis
tressed state of her finances. The luke
warmness of France. Germany. and even
England, on the subject is very apparent,
and lust why Mr. Hay in Washington is
worrying over the matter so much more
than his European brethren are is a little
mystifying to people in the business world.
The labor troubles now on may hest he
described as annoying rather than serious.
They are of only local Importance and in
volve no great nat ional industries. The real
reason for Wall Street 5 present narrow mar
ket is not found in any Of these matters that
have been named, nor is it even the sup
posed apathy OF the general public. 1t
lies in the fact that while the great bank
ing interests are of one mind. entirely.
that necessary liquidation in the market
has been completed, and strongly advise
their friends that the drives of bearish
operators against values on the Stock
Exchange only FLORIDA splendid opportunity
of picking up stocks, they desire that the
improvement in the market shall be slow,
gradual and safe. They want no more
such antics in Wall Street as those Of last
summer, which brought us to the verge Of
panic in the fall. This determination il
that this year the financial community
shall be prepared for the crop-moving
season. Once that preparation is made,
we may have bull market of the old
fashioned kind. Meantime, there are GER
tain stocks whose price. probably. cannot
be kept down. Their cheapness is likely
to become so apparent that their price will
advance rapidly, however moderate may
be the pace Of the general list of securities.
Easy money, good crops. big railroad
earnings-almost certainly resulting in
some cases in increased dividends-and
prosperous general business, are the rocks
upon which the security market rests just
now. There is one matter in particular
whose Importance has been strangely
overlooked by the speculative community,
and that is the meaning to this country
of the present condition Of the worlds
wheat supply and the prospects of the
toiilhe bdi NeStS III
nations. Brddstreefs report than which
there is none more authoritative, is that
on May 1 the stock Of wheat in the United
States and Canada was. in round numbers
$4,000 900 bushels, or less than at any corre-
spending date in the last four years. Fu-
ropean stocks are only SO Geo eco bushels, or
smaller than they have been for twenty
years. The total American and European
supply is only 1900, 900 bushels larger than
in the low record year, 1898. Statistically.
in other words, tho worlds wheat position
is practically the same as that which pre-
coded the extraordinary rise in the price
of the grain five years ago. Gaping all
this are the moderate and in many cases
miserably poor expectations for the seasons
wheat crop in other countries and the
ma gnificent promise Of our own agricut-
ural section. The export demand for
our wheat this summer and fall WILL there
fore, according to all present Indications
be enormous. It looks as though we would
not only have great wheat crop, but get
a great price for it, Wall Street will under
stand some day. not very long way of,
what all this means.
Everything seems to he working as favor
ably as it can, too, regarding the money
situation. 1t seems now that the Panama
Canal payment by our Government will not
occur until the fall, and il such postpone