The Indianapolis journal. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1867-1904, 1903-06-14
A Long Search for the Causes of the
Shrinknge in Values Fails to De-
veIop the Real Reasons.
POLITICS IN THE DISCUSSION
ENMITIES OF A BULL MARKET SHOW
WHEN THE BEARS ARE IN POWER.
The RockefelIers and the National
City Bank-CompIication i'm Inter-
national Marine Affairs.
Special to the Indianapolis Journal.

NEW YORK, June 13.-The work Of sift-
ing effects to find causes, a task to which
the professional Wall-street critics have
appointed themselves, goes actively on.
The tremendous shrinkage In securities
values that has occurred this year is not
10 be accounted for by apparent or surface
conditions. and the subterranean passages
of the stock market are being explored for
why's and wherefores. Nothing very def
mite has been found, nor is it likely that
the true causes will be discovered until
they have ceased to be causes 1t is easy
enough to look backward and say what
was the matter with the stock market.
The present phases of speculative phe-
nomena are so greatly complicated that
no man can honestly pass Judgment Off
hand as to whether prices have seen the
bottom or whether the unaccountable liqui-
dation that has been upsetting calculations
pretty much all of the year has ceased.
There has been seen this year thing that
has not been seen for many years before;
namely, liquidation Of stocks by big peo-
ple' on declining quotations. How much
OF this liquidation has been Involuntary
that is, done under pressure-and how much
of it arises from a definite dissatisfaction
with the stock market prospect cannot now
be determined. The piker public was elm
mated from the market in the course Of the
violent decline which eliminated last De-
cember, and it may be asserted as broad
proposition that nine-tenths of the liquida-
ton that has occurred since then has been
by interests of the class usually described
by the term big people" Every share of
hot sc rAlI ha hone md
is obvious that the biggest interests have
been holding an open bag for the securities
others were hqudating. The heaviest SELL
ing of stocks this year has been by people
who were most bullish year ago. and the
natural presumption is that the heaviest
buying on this level has been by the inter-
ests who shrewdly liquidated their stocks
on the crest of the bull wave last year.
XXX
The search for specific causes above re-
ferred to has caused politics to be injected
into academic stock market discussions.
Several of the critical fraternity have
sought to make out that the prospect of
Mr.. Roosevelts denomination has influenced
certain proportion of the extraordinary
liquidation that has been in progress, and
has made important financial interests re-
Iuctant either to support prices or TO accu-
mulate stocks. Without straying far afield
in politics the present attitude Of Wall
street toward Mr.. Roosevelt for another
four years may be presented from a purely
Wall-street point of view. 1t is declared
in banking parlors, big brokerage offices and
other institutions here that the financial
community will contribute grudgingly to
the Republican campaign fund in the event
fanf i'm, oil
streets contribution to that fund in the
campaign of 1900 was, perhaps, the largest
ever made for a similar purpose. There Is
hardly a broker in Wall street of any prom
inence who did not go down on the list for
anywhere from 800 to $1,000, either as indi-
viduals or as heads of firms. Every banker
came down handsomely, all giving in pro-
portion to their means and standing in the
financial world. These contributions, of
course. were not for Mckinley, but for the
cause of gold; not so much with the idea
of electing the Republican nominee as OF
defeating Bryan. If the free-silver issue Is
not raised again in 1904 there will be less
incentive, of course. for Wall street contrib
uting to the Republican campaign fund.
THE apparent and growing 1ndlsposition or
those who assisted the Mckinley campaign
in a financial way to similarly assist the
Roosevelt campaign Is rather interesting,
no matter what ones politics may be, and
Ii is noticed in this correspondence for that
reason only. The suggestion that Mr.. Roose-
Vpglt s prospective CdnOlQdcy has ~neIpeu 10
depress stock values is taken seriously by
some well-informed Observers but whether
there is any more to Ii than the financial
hesitancy that Is invariably seen on the APP
proach of a presidential campaign cannot
now be determined. The great bull market
that appears to have eliminated last Sep
TENDER began Immediately upon the re-elec-
ton of the late President Mckinley, and
for two years speculative values went no
way but up A bull market in the year of
a presidential campaign is an almost impos-
sible thing. 1t may be that the large in
terests, who are heavily committed in
stocks have merely been anticipating per-
iod of political and financial uncertainty
next year by liquidating proportion Of
tations.
Several times during the month Of May
and twice already in June the stock market
has appeared to be on the verge of vio-
lent smash. Each time, just when things
We're looking bluest, the Standard Oil crowd
has come in and bought stocks on a large
scale, and each time the Wall-street COM
munity and the financial writer's have been
obediently Impressed and have thought that
Mt last the turn had come. The market
then rallied feebly in response to more
cheerful trading sentiment, only in short
time to resume its downward course il
having been seen meanwhile that stocks
were Stlil LOT SUE OH every little purge. 10
the experienced tape reader ii is reasonably
clear that this intermittent support has
been inspired chiefly by a desire to make
fresh ground on which to liquidate more
stocks. The inference follows that certain
powerful interests are in perfect control of
the speculative situation. They have re-
peatedly demonstrated their ability to avert
panic and TO arrest declines as often as
they threaten to become too violent. If
this means anything at all IL is that we are
in the midst of liquidating market. How
long IL will continue no man can honestly
say. The Standard Oil crowd, which has
been the dominant force in the market for
several months, is believed to be accumu-
lating stocks heavily on scale orders. but
revealing itself as a buying factor only
when absolutely necessary I'm order to pre-
vent the market from going violently to
pieces IL is believed to be buying back
around and below 100 the ST. Paul which II
| sold to its friends and the Gates bull crowd
around and above 100. The same will hold
| true of nearly all the stocks In which the
Standard Oil interest is dominant
Personal and professional enmties have
played an important part In the stock mar
| ket this year. If il is true that every
| thing comes out in the wash. it is equally
| true that all of the hostiities and jeal-
ousies engendered in the course of big
| bull market come TO the surface in a bear
| market 1t Is most always on declining
| quotations that such accounts are squared
! There is no doubt that the Rockefeller
| Gould alliance has been visiting its spleen
| upon Mr.. Cassatt and the Pennsylvania
- +. a.