The Butte inter mountain., 1903-03-16
TUESDAY, MARCH 10, 1903.
THE POLITICAL FIELD


election and of the availability of candi-
dates Of the two parties leaves out OF CON
sidcration the changes resulting from new
conditions as weighed by the new appor-
tionment For 20 years "thc solid South
New York and Indiana" was the demo-
cratic slogan. That combination would
have elected Tilden in 1876 il would have
sufced to elect Cleveland in 1884. Each
OF these democratic candidates, 10 be sure
carried New Jersey and Connecticut, but in
the latter case the two were unnecessary
while in Tildcn's time this gain did not
offset the loss Of South Carolina, Florida
and Louisiana but it almost did so. The
South, New York and Indiana was so cliec-
tive combination that the political battles
OF generation were planned on that
basis.
The New York correspondent of the
Boston Transcript takes an intelligent view
Of the field and directs attention 20 the
fact that were democratic candidate next
year to have this support he would be 70
votes short of a majority. In 1909 the
solid South. New York and Indiana no
longer suihced, but there was this import
ant difference between results under that
apportionmcnt and now: the solid South
has lost three Of its states Maryland.
Delaware and West Nirginia-all Of which
are. to say the least debatablc ground.
The solid South remaining is so small as TO
require larger reinlorccmcnts from the
North than in the decade OF the ninetics.
Most OF the discussion OF Judge Parker's
availability rests on the assumption that
New York is still the key to the democratic
success. II may be key. but it opens only
an outer door. The South which the dem
ocrats car now rely on, excluding the three
states already named, casts 81 electoral
votes and New York casts 80. This would
make 100 electoral votes, or 40 less than a
majority. Where are these votes to come
fromi Indiana is now as securely republi-
can as Massachusetts, its republican plu-
rality in the recent congressional election
was 3s554. Massachusetts on the same
day showed a republican lead OF 37,Iao
bearing about the same relation in proper
tion to population. Indiana has no large
cities and hence no mercurial vote like that
OF Chicago or Cleveland or Boston. Ii
should as surely be eliminated from demo-
cratic calculations as Massachusetts. The
days OF lndiana's occupying the center Of
she stage, because OF its pivotal character
are over. 1t will provide fewer candidates
for vice president on the democratic ticket
and for president on the republican. Con-
necticut and New Jersey are also showing
republican pluralities, which certainly take
them out Of the class of easily carried
democratic states.
The democrats will go into the campaign
sure OF carrying I3 states Of the old South
including Missouri and Kentucky, giving
them I5i votes. OF course il they cannot
carry New York they might as well 60 out
OF business at the start, since it will be
hard enough to win with that state They
will need 40 electoral votes besides. Where
are these TO come from? Obviously Illi-
nois is the great state for which the demo-
crats should now play; it has ~ electoral
votes; If they could carry New York and
Illinois the chances would be favorable for
picking up the 2s additional votes which
would be necessary, from the Rocky Noun
tain region or from those border states
which have recently been going republican.
But with anything short OF New York and
Illinois as basis democratic prospects are
extremely poor.
The correspondent whose theory we are
following figures that "the next time any
democratic candidate carries the country
he will have the electoral vote of Illinois,
and that until this is done there will be no
democratic success" But there is not
much to encourage democratic hope in that.
Ihe conclusions are: 1T may safely be
said that never before in the history Of the
republican party were its prospects of sue
cess 20 months before the presidential cleo
tion so good as they are today Even
trifcs favor the republicans The new
electoral college will contain an even num-
ber of votes, and should there be tie the
election would go to the house OF repre-
sentatives, which is Overwhelmingly repub-
lican, and especially SO on the basis of
each state counting as a unit. The repub-
licans are In apparent control of all the
states of the North except Nevada. In
Rhode Island the results were divided. but
no one supposes that this state would be
lost to the republicans in presidential
vote Montana has recently given repub-
ican majority of almost 10000, Idaho of
5000, and Colorado of 1000. Maryland in
spite of its election Of democratic senator
IN the person Of Mr.. German and the new