The Indianapolis journal. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1867-1904, 1903-03-25
THE POLITICAL OUTLOOK
NOTHING NOW IN SIGHT TO CLOUD
REPUBLICAN PROSPECTS.
Series Of Political Explosions Would
BE Required to Dislodge the
Party from Power.
Washington Correspondents New York


presidential election and of the availability
OF candidates of the two parties leaves out
OF consideration the changes resulting from
new conditions as weighed by the new
apportionment For twenty years 1.-The
solid South, New York and Indiana was
the Democratic slogan. That combination
would have elected Tilden in 1876; it would
have suficed to elect Cleveland in 1854
Each of these Democratic candidates, to
De sure, carried New Jersey and Connecti-
cut. but in the latter case the two were
unnecessary, while in Tiiden's time this
gain did not offset the loss of South Caro-
lima, Florida and Louisiana, but it almost
did so. The South. New York and Indiana
formed so effective combination that the
political battles of a generation were
planned on that basis.
Were Democratic candidate in 1904 to
nave this support he would be sixteen votes
short of majority. In 1892 the solid South,
New York and Indiana no longer sufficed,
but there was this important difference be-
tween results under that apportionment and
now: The solid South has lost three of its
States. Maryland. Delaware and West vir
gfnia-all Of which are. to say the least,
depatable ground-and what remains is so
small as to require larger reinforcements
from the North than in the nineties
MOST OF the discussion of Judge Parker's
availability rests on the assumption that
New York is still the key to Democratic sue
cess. II may be key. but it opens only
an outer door. The South which the Dem
ocrats can now rely on, excluding the three
states already named. casts ISL electoral
would make 100 electoral votes, or fortyl
nine less than majority. Where are these
votes to come from? Indiana is now as Sc
curely Republican as Massachusetts,; its
Republican plurality in the recent con-
Sresslonal election was 1854. Massachus-
etts on the same day showed a Republican
ieao Oh 5',lO, bearing about the same rela-
tlon In proportion TO population. Indiana
has no large cities and hence no mercurial
vote like that of Chicago or Cleveland or
Boston. 1t should as surely be eliminated
from Democratic calculations as Massa-
chusetts. The days of Indianas occupying
the center OF the stage because of its pivot
az character are over 1t will provide fewer
cratic ticket and for President on the Re-
publican ticket Connecticut and New Jer-
sey are also showing Republican pluralities
wnlch certainly take them out of the class
OF easily carried Democratic States.
MUST SELECT BATTLE GROUND
Before the next national campaign opens
the Democratic managers will have to de-
eide on a battle line by selecting list of
the States that they think they have some
chance of carrying, for no party is ever
rich enough to waste its finest target prac-
tice on the whole country. The Republic
ans will meet them on the same ground.
This selection will have to be made before
the candidates are named because they are
part Of the artillery, and hence the i'm
portance to the party leaders of reaching
an early conclusion as to where the real
battle is to be fought.
The Democrats will go into the campaign
sure OF carrying thirteen States of the old
giving them Isl votes. OF course. If they
cannot carry New York they might as well
go out of business at the start, since 1t
will be hard enough to win even with that
State. They will need forty-nine electoral
votes besides. Where are these to come
from? Obviously, Illinois is the great State
for which the Democrats should play.
they could carry New York and Illinois the
chances would be favorable for picking up
the twenty-five additional votes which
would be necessary from the Rocky noun
tain region or from those border States
which have recently been going Republican.
But with anything short Of New York and
Illinois as basis Democratic prospects are
extremely poor.
1t may be observed that Illinois is now
giving larger Republican pluralities, accord
ing to population. that Massachusetts, or
Indiana, and hence that it is more reason
able to expect a recovery of Democratic
power In its old strOngh0lds such as lndi-
ana and New Jersey and Connecticut than
in Illinois. The fact is, however. that the
city or Chicago Is very volatile commun-
ity. 1t sends up a $4,000 Republican ma
jority one year, and may give forth heavy
Democratic majority the next. 1t has a
large labor-union vote and great socialistic
possibilities; it has often been remarked
that If the Tammany organization of New
York city could be established as effectively
in Chicago it would make Illinois Demo
ito Oft for
more Republican than rural Illinois. II
| would not be unreasonable prediction
| that the next time any Democratic candi-
| date carries the country he will have the
| electoral vote of Illinois, and that until this
| is done there will be no Democratic sue
! cess.
IN NEW YORK STATE.
What is the outlook for New York, the
| more fundamental Democratic reliance, as
viewed in political circles here? In its re-
cent election it showed itself a wonder.
fully close State. Odell having received but
| 4SO5 per cent of the vote, against E.4 70,
Golfer Experience has proved. however
| that a Republican national ticket in New
York is from 5000 to $1,000 votes stronger
| than a Republican state ticket. This has
| been shown over and over again. Cleye-
lands stupendous majority on the state
| ticket in 1882 almost vanished in 1884. IL
| 1885, 1886 and 1887 the Democrats each time
carried the State, only to lose 1t on the
| presidential ticket in 1885, They even car
| ried it on the state ticket in that year. the
difference between the Republican strength
| of the two votes exceeding $1,000. In the
| stupendous Republican landslide of 1896 tbs
presidential candidate ran far ahead of thu
| Republican state ticket, while in the of
| year-Roosevelt against Van Wyck-th'
| Democrats almost recovered the State. III
| the presidential vote of 1900 there was diff
matorities on the electoral and state tick
cts 1t is. therefore. fair to assume from
| the experience of twenty years that, haC
| there been a presidential election last No
vember, with Odell having a plurality O.
| only 5000. the lead for the head of the pres
| idential ticket would have exceeded 10000
| This Is, Of course on the assumption tina
| national issues and candidates will hole
| about the same relation in New York in
terest that they have held In the past
| There will be no Bryan and free silver II
1904, but that the Democratic convention
can do business without some recognition
| of Bryan is much to be doubted
1t may safely be said that never before II
the history of the Republican party wer
its prospects of success twenty months be
| fore the presidential election good a
| they are to-day. Even trifies favor the Re
publicans. The new Electoral College vii
| contain an even number OF votes, and
should there be tie. the election would &
to the House of Representatives. which /
| overwhelmingly Republican. and especially
so on the basis OF each State counting as
unit The Republicans are apparently Il
cept Nevada In Rhode Island the result
were divided, but no one supposes that thi
State would be lost to the Republicans in
| presidential vote. Montana has recentl
given Republican majority of 10000. Idah
spite of its election of a Democratic senate