The Savannah morning news., 1903-09-01
COTTON.
Review of the Conditions During
Season 19O2-I9O3.

HeV1eW OF the Conditions During
Season 10O2-I9O3.
The year was one of unusual activity
and vicissitudes in the cotton market
The crop turns out to be just about
10, 100000 bales, thus coming as is US
ually the case at a point intermediate
between the views of the extremists
on both sides. However, the result
confirms the views of the short crop
side rather than the long crop side
as the average estimate was about Ii,
100000 bales. Moreover, owing to cir
cumstances to be alluded to later, the
entire country has been squeezed out
to an unprecedented degree. Thus the
opinion of the conservative short crop
people who put their figures at 10,75O,
900 bales as a maximum, have been
completely verified.
For the first four months of the
year, that is from Sept. 1 to Dec. 81,
there was little in the market to re-
quire more than passing comment. AT
the opening of the season, middling in
Savannah was SIC; in Liverpool. Sd,
and in New York SC. For several
months the heavy crop movement
served to create a general impression
rather favoring large crop views, and
consequently the tendency of prices
was downward, with numerous minor
fluctuations. The general result was
that middling in Savannah got a lit
tie under Sc late in October and by
the middle of November was down to
Z 9-16c. At this time Liverpool was
4.40d, and January in New York around
1900. At the end of December Sa-
Vannah had recovered to SIC, the
opening of the year.
BY this time the great bulk of the
crop had been marketed, so that it is
evident that by far the major part
of the crop passed out of planters
hands and into consumption at some
where near SC, and perhaps shade
less.
In January prices commenced to
move upward. Consumption was go
ing on at such a great pace all over
the world that it became evident the
supply could not hold out until new
crop should come in; there was fine
profit to the mills in spinning cotton
that cost only Sc. So a bull campaign
was inaugurated, and by the end OF
January Savannah had got up to sac,
and by the end of February to 9Bc.
Here there was long pause, during
which the market fluctuated nervous
Iy and frequently. There was much
talk of a very large increase IN the
next acreage, and the crop movement
at the time was heavy enough TO en-
courage the bears in their inslstence
that the crop would be 11,500,O0O bales
or over as was done by some OF the
reputable and conscientious authorizes
as lste as April.
The bull leaders turned over 10 the
other side, but new leaders came to
the front, and the market lost nothlhs
bv the change, for the new Leaders
showed far more confidence and ag-
eressivensss. They had two powerful
wea pons-the increasing certainty OF
shortage b,fore the close of the season
and the unavoidable conviction that the
new cop at the very best must be
late one.
! A. first the summer months were the
point Of attacl, commencing with July
and then August. Afterwards, as The
outlook for a start on the new crop
becnme more ard more discouraginS
the new crop deliveries were taken up,
especially September and October
prices were advanced TO what a few
months earlier would have been con-
sidered fabulous pfces. Mddling in
Savannah, which at the end Of April
was 10c, went above nc early IN lhe
summer. and stayed tfare. BY the end
OF July the quotations vas 1876 with
~ course. however, ve'y small bust
ness as stocks were al depleted and
receipts almost nothing.
The FIRST elimination Of the bull deal
was about July /. when july went over
Isc August TO 13c. SEPTEMBER 10 about
i9c and october over l0.50c A sharr
dron followed. and II was vey general
" thought that the deal wa over. but
Inc only effect was 70 entrai a great