New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1903-09-07
ISTHEREA YELLOW PERIL!
AuguStinc Heard, Formerly Minis
fer to Corea, Thinks There Is.

,-s tho attitude and relations OF those countries
toward the rest Of the world is contributed TO
,-he Tribune ~ Augustine Heard. who was for
,Yerly United States Minister 10 Corea. and who
Is widely recognized as an authority upon East
Asian matters
Is there "a yellow terror? Undoubtedly. and
Il Is singular that among the many writers IN
England. France and Germany who have
1ichteued Europe with their theories this
sfibiect not ore should have put his finger on
.be spot where n lies. There have been many
so-called yellow terrors." military. industrial
and moral but I put aside for the moment the
industrial and moral terriers. which are GER
-ainly serious. and devote myself now to a con-
si6eration 81 the military yellow terror which
fourshed greatly after the treaty Of Kuldja,
about 1880 To this drew attention BY
lefter tO The New-Tork Tribune IN May. 1901
ir which compared the situation OF Russia IN
Kuldja then and in Manchuria to-day.
This terror Was caused by the retrocessiOn 70
China by Russia OF the great northwestern
r~ovince which so much excited the diplomatic
world and indeed all those who were interested
"a such subjects. They could only account for
fhis retrocession by she theory that Russia. more
close 20 and knowing China better than any one
else recognized the power OF her countless
millions and felt compelled 20 Yield to her de-
-uands Let al take heed OF the terror OF that
ssv Field Marshal Lord Wolseley the
sposte and Boulger was HIS prophet But IL had
no substance. The masses OF China had no dis
cirlue ard no cohesion. and no more military
value than a wooden spear shaft without the
s.oe head. j have never n statement or
this terror really is. ana yet tnere IS not a
man who knows the East, AND who thinks I'VE
minutes % whom II is not perfectly clear that IL
lies in the close alliance and friendship Of China
and Japan
Is difficult 10 assign. Perhaps attention has
feer 50 completely absorbed by the vague con-
temptation II the millions Of China that no real
thought has been given 10 the means or posi-
h1fty az making them available: and this has
suflced or perhaps Japan has ceased 20 he re-
parded Eastern nation. especially since re-
Gently she placed herself frankly 10y the side OF
the Western powers in their march upon Pc
King
JAPAN AN EASTERN NATION.
But she has never herself repudiated that
character. on the contrary. she has carefully
guarded H. and ir ali her studies and efforts TO
sssr7iIate Western mechanical progress she has
eeaulousy preserved ner original nature. As
last as she has learned she has discarded her
foreign teachers. almost all the professors in her
colleges and universities are now japanese. ana
IN an her military and naval establishments she
has retained only six individuals 81 foreign ma
touality viz. two German I'M the military acau-
enH one French in the military college, one
French IN the Toyama school OF tactics. one
italian experimenting The making OF ordnance
Al Yokoshuka and one French bandmaster.
Sine wishes TO so alone soon as possible.
end she no longer feels the need OF leacers ana
models She aims at being the head OF the
Faet and her most cherished ambition Is 10
see herself accepted as such by the various ma
tions Of the East She was never more THOR
oUghly Eastern in her aspirations man she 3
today and she sees distinctly in the future the
great place reserved for its chief; In other words
she expects, for herself. II II be objected
that Japan would never relnQuish her place -
one - the civilized nations, so-cahed. ana mat
fhe could not tolerate the thought Of being con-
efdered by them particularly Ivy England. with
whom she has contracted an especial treaty OF
alliance. AZ having relapsed into harbarisln
Jet 81 he remembered that she is one OF the
smallest and most insignificant among the
Western powers one u them; hut as an
r-asfern power welding the forces Of the East
as she knows how 10 WELD them. she would
he mighty. and If she succeeds in her aim prac-
ricaly there would be none 20 gainsaY her
And AFTER all she would lose none OF the
esteem IN which she is now held Her ian from
grace az We might call a. would cause reel ng
- regret hut nothing Ike contempt The fear
which she would inspire would Tar more tha1
compensate for any sense of loss. She =, more
over one OF the vainest and most ambitious r
nations and nothing would give her more heart
felf estisfaction than a triumph OF the East
over the West under her leadership.
NEEDS ASSISTANCE OF CHINA
To succeed she needs only China. She Is small
81 herself and she would never dare to under
take alone such enterprise but with the
enormous resources Of China al her back. which
che knows well how 10 mould. she would have
no hesitation IN attempting h. She feels that
she has the Intelligence and the ability to lead.
and her people have feeling OF hostility 70
the Chinese the existence Of which would In
crease the difficulty Of forming alliance.
With China IL is different The Insignificant
small sized japanese are dcspised by the big
men 0f North China. and throughout the empire
they STOken and thought Of lWarfS. This
feeling has contributed largely in the past 10
keep them apart. Indeed. IL rs not all i'm
probable that with view 10 the ultimate end.
the japanese statesmen deliberately provoked
or pushed on the recent Japano-Chnese war
with The expectation that their victory would
thoroughly destroy this prejudice rep acing con-
tempt with admiration. and this. no doubt in
some measure. has been accomplished.
There rs. however. an objection Of greater
weight which might deter Chinese statesmen
ron accepting The alliance. and subsequent
letlerEhIp nF Irpan and that Is the danger
mat once having seized the reins. she would
never lei them go; that the rulers OF Japan
would substitute themselves for the present
us-asJy oi China, and that practically China
MoGlc he subordinate TO and subjected to Japan.
EoN Would the naughty Chinaman accept any
tloioslLon which might bring bout such a
result That would depend upon how much he
was bent on achieving the end TO be accom-
I-Saed ny the alliance. He would say. no doubt,
eAl try 20 convince himself. that there could lie
70 leaf of This. China is too strong. too popu-
Lgls ever 10 De forced 10 that position. and
.le~ moreover. then she would be drilled and
e-hel and Japan would have no advantage
oNei her ~ that respect. As to ability. ne was
a. capable ~ conducting his empire and the
,-llre as any japanese could he. and he had no
Co., ~ any such result I VIII recur 20 this
SIZE OF JAPAN's --RMY
@apau had an army by the Official statistics
~ ~ u 26S H. men; in 1896. Of 2SsO63. in
-oti. ~ 320NJG Details % the army are
o.AiJie1 In The official statistics OF the rext two
..-A Ail.t iilt \ lffldiac ArOlLa. or " men
Ihe hgures arc understood 10 he supplied by the
utplef-auc bocy. ind that the army had
1Nelel "a lN'E 20 the large total OF 43l ga men.
- Nhom la4.o36 men were IN active service.
p Aoi The sudden dropping 81 all mention Of the
iis from The published official statistics during
..ese tNO years when il was increased from
100 men % a3l GA. "a her suggestive?
As 10 The ability ~ these troops. Henry Nor
--ah says in his book. The Real Japan:
--'eIl where went i found just the same APP
i-oleilee, Just the same drill and just the same
,-s-il-ile as exist al home. ] have seen most Of
Ne inlitarE establishments AID many OF the
'esi uoops in England and the Continent. and
~. lI-.. - ..r... Il. L.,