The Minneapolis journal. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn.) 1888-1939, 1903-12-12
The Business Year 1908.

Next week will mark the begin
ming of the annual period of dullness
In the heavy trade lines, of which
there are already many signs. By
Dec. Is, as a rule, the retail trade,
stimulated. by holiday buying, is
swelled to great volume, and from
that time until Christmas the actiy-
ity continues The holiday trade alb
serbs the public interest, and the
manufacturers and jobbeps usually
- look for dull turn which may be
expected to continue until after the
first of the year.
Meanwhile, reports, usually pre-.
1llninary estimates only, are nuner-
Gus, even tho the exact figures, with
comparisons, will not be available
until some time after Jan. 1. That
1903 will fall behind the year pre-
ceding is now certain. The average
all thru from one business to another
will show UP lighter, even tho some
lines: lead. a., An estimate has been
made that in the northwest the total
volume Of business done will be found
to be about per cent lighter in
volume than in 1902. There is of
course no way Of getting at this with
exactitutte. The usual way is to take
the bank clearings for the leading
cities, in any section, and base con-
illusions largely upon them. Few
cities will have any increases to show
this year s.aa
If the estimate of a per cent de-
crease in general business shall prove
to be correct, then the northwest will
make q wonderfully good showing,
for the country at large has fallen
off more than this, and some sections
will probably show decreases three or
four times as great. IF this .esti-
mate turns out to be about right then
we will be able to note a period Of
almost five years of continued gains
and new high figures, followed. in a
year when decreases should have been
expected as a matter of course, by de-
cline SO slight as to be really unim-
portant, and this in a year marked
by more pessimistic talk and more
prediction of trouble to come than
any. since the return of good times.
Until the year has passed, however
It. will be impossible to know just
how the comparisons are to rum The
thing to do meanwhile is to avoid
drawing erroneous conclusions from
reports coming from time to time
In incomplete form and without full
81 o1ox VI :
the Minneapolis bank clearings, fol-
instance, fail to show a substantial
gain for the year, many will forge
that last years figures were almos
phenomenally heavy, and others no
familiar with the size and the late
movement Of the northwestern crop.
this year will very likely connect i
in some way with the talk of finan
cial depression, which has no bear
ing upon it, nor will such observer.
know that, while lighter wheat re
ceipts have held down the total, bust
ness in many lines in Minneapolis ha.
really increased very heavily during
the past year.
Should the -four production fall
little under last year many will no
consider that the 1902 output was
record breaker, not taking into &C
count the effect of the strike upol
production In 1903.
In this way the first reports ar
likely to be little misleading, and a
really splendid business year in tn
northwest could be made to appea
less favorable by putting forward an
emphasizing comparative figures.
81
Railway earnings are still holdin