The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1903-03-16
TRADES HARD FACTS
CONFUSE THE
PROPHETS
Outlook for 1903 Said to be
Full of Promise and Croak-
ers Have Not Found Their
Predictions Verified =
Neither Panic or Depres-
sion in Sight.

Special to The Globe.
NEW YORK, March 15.-The month
ly circular issued by the banking house
Of John H. Davis & Co. has this to say
of the industrial outlook for 1903:
The prophets of disaster have not
found their predictions verified. They
argued that the prosperous times of
1900 and 1901 could not continue
through 1902. Then events caused them
to postpone the evil day for one more
year. Again they are COMPOUNDED by
the fact that neither panic or depreS-
sion are IN sight for 1903. Dull times
may come in the stock and securities
market-indeed, dullnesS had prevailed
for several weeks in Wall street prior
to the very sharp break which has re-
Gently resulted disastrously to many
individual operatOrs-and lessened ac-
tiVity in manufacturing and trade is
sure to appear sooner or later, but
there is no immediate prospect of 1t.
The railways have more traffic urged
upon them than they can handle. The
advance which has been made in freight
rates has been met without grumbling
by shippers. When trade is good and
one has to implore railway to re-
ceive and transport goods, and there
are not cars, engines or tracks enough
to meet the crOwding tonnage, a slight
increase in rates is not worth quar-
reling about. 1t is when trade is slack
and profits at the lowest that vigorous
opposition is made to freight charges,
whether they are really high or low.
The manufacturing concerns are be-
ing pushed to their utmost capacity
to fill existing and urgent orders. The
crops of the last year We're abundant,
and with the proceeds of such part as
has been sold the farmers are purchas-
ing literally of lands, machinery and
goods. The position of large indus
. trials is being improved, day by day,
by the good judgment with which many
are being managed, and also by the
closer discrimination against the not
ably overburdened instances. They are
passing through the same process
which gradually, and sometimes disas-
trously, brought railways from the
speculative period into one of conser-
Vatism and safety. Some unsound ones
have gone to the wall and more of
that kind may meet the same fate. The
solid ones will grow in favor and adj
vance in rank as investments.
Trusts Are Beneficent.
Meantime, the country has not suf-
ferred from the principle of combina-
ton or trust consolidation. On the
contrary, the industries of the land
have been quickened and sustained by
reason of so-calIed trust operations
If there is one economic feature which
has especially distinguished the great
combinations, 1T is the reduction Of
the cost of production and in distribu-
ton Of products, and herein lies the
secret of trade success and of national
supremacy. The enormous eXpendi-
lures which the railways have made
and are making for improved roadways
and grades, equipment and motive
power, will enable them to conduct
their business at lessened operating
expense. Both the railways and in
til
pared for decreased business than at
any previous period of their history
(barring fatuous demands of organic
ed labor. 1t is estimated and believed
that we shall this year produce more
iron than Great Britain, Germany,
France, Russia and Belgium combined,
and more steel than the aggregate of
Great Britain, France, Russia and
Spain. The demand for both iron and
steel from all quarters exceeds the
ability of the United States Steel
corporation and its competitors. We
shall not be in the turmoil of another
presidential election for the next
twelve months. If congress has not
enacted any great beneficial acts, at
least it has not passed any throttling
and vicious laws. Altogether, the
broad view fails to disclose any ma
terial disturbance of present indus
trial conditions during the year 1903.
Two Small Clouds.
Two important factors have, how
ever, to be taken into account, one es-
pecially affecting the securities mar
ket, and the other the general situa-
ton during the latter half of the year!
% the enormous expansion of credit
to facilitate the operation of the I'M
precedented amount of new issues of
stocks and bonds, and CD the outcome
or the crops of the current year. While
we have money in circulation to the
amount of S2,S54, 100000 Can average of
s29.41 per capital, yet the requirements
for financing the hundreds of millions
of new securities are Straining the re-
sources Of the banks to an unusual
degree, and largely by reason of the
enormous business which the coun-
try is doing, the stringency both in
money and accommodation when the
next periodical crop moving period
arrives will be more acute than usual
The passage of the Aldrich bill by con-
gress would have insured great relief
without weakening the governments
security, but that relief was denied the
country by eXaSperating obstructive
methods, and we must get along with
out 1T for at least another year. The
character of the crops can be safely
estimated for two months. If thosS
crops are abundant Gas now seems
probable), or even of average quantity
and quality, Industrial activity will
be assured until well into 1904 at least.