The Irish standard., 1903-10-03
WILL ROOSEVELT BE ELECTED?

M 10 iioI d sliSle hepuDllcall news
paper or leader who doubts that Theo-
dore Roosevelt will he elected presl-
dent i'll November, 1904. They are alb
solutely sincere in their opinions. SO
certain are they that the next presi-
Dental campaign will be contest on
ly in name, that they are not disturbed
by political scandals in the adminstra-
tive departments. The insult offered
10 General Miles, who is admired by
the old soldiers, the possible alienation
OF the vote of labor unions, the stirring
up OF the race question in states such
as Indiana, Delaware, West Virginia
and Illinois, where there is much anti
negro feeling, none or all these mat
ters shake the absolute confidence
which pervades Republican ranks To
one who is not imbued with that con-
ildence it is Il difficult task to assign
reason for it. The history of past
campaigns will not justify so much
certainty. We think that most any
Republican will concede that any Dem
ocratic candidate will carry the SOUTH
ern states carried by Bryan in 1900
which We're the same southern states
carried by him in 1896. and in addition
thereto the state of Kentucky. In Or
der for Mr. Roosevelt to be assured
of an election in 1904. he must carry
some of the following states: New
York. New Jersey, Connecticut, In
diana, Maryland, West Virginia an,l
Delaware. Are the Republicans sure
to carry all these states? The ten
dcncy since 1896 has been toward the
conditions which existed in those
states prior to 1896 except perhaps in
the states of Indiana and West Nir-
&inia. In 1896 Mckinlcy'S majority in
the state of New York was 2GS. ls)
-Four years later Mckinley, who hn,,
just completed a successful war
against Spain and against the same OPP
ponent as he had in 1896. had IL major
ity of 143,GO6 in New York. In 1896
Mckinley had Il majority of S7.G92 in
New Jersey and this was reduced to
3G.S99 in 1900. Mckinley carried
Maryland in 1896 by 332.2224. and by
only 1901 in 1900 Connecticut went
to Mckinley in 1896 by 53,5l5, and in
1900 by 2S,57O. The majority in Della
ware in the two campaigns was about
the same. $500. Indiana and West
Virginia alone. of the states above
mentioned, increased their Republican
majority. Whatever may he said OF
President McKiney's qualities as Il
lean politics will deny that he was a
great party leader. He bad the facul-
ty to a marked degree Of keeping pace
with public sentiment and knowing
what public sentiment demanded. IL"
had the faculty. also. Of being able to
dispose of party questions and politi-
cal patronage without alternating the
powerful leaders of his party This
latter faculty Roosevelt lacks. He has
in one way or another run counter to
many Of the Republican leaders. He
is as stubborn and Independent as
Cleveland. without possessing the tact
of the latter.
New York has always been consid-
cred a pivotal state 1t may not be
necessary for Mr. Roosevelt to carry
his own state in 1904 in order to be
elected. But it would certainly be
dangerous to count on his election
without New York. Cleveland would
have been elected in 1892. even if the
electoral college had not counted New
York. but it would he very far from
the truth to say that Cleveland would
have been elected in 1892. even if New
York had given majority for Harri-
son. for if New York had gone for
Harrison New Jersey. Indiana and
Connecticut would also. The condi.
tiOnS which influence one of these
states influence the others, and in
about the same proportion. President
Roosevelt has never shown much
strength, in his own state. When he
ran for mayor Of New York City,
against Abram S. Hewitt. he was
not only defeated by Hewitt. but
ran behind Henry George, who ran
| on an independent ticket. In 1898
Mr. Roosevelt. fresh from Cuba with
| the lnurrls of San Juan before the
public. succeeded in beating Van
| Wyck for governor Of New York by
the slender majority of 1870. In
view of the present situation in New
York politics, it is almost a certainty
that, if the Democrats nominate a
strong man who can harmonize the
| Democracy, the president will lose his
own state. And If he loses New York.
the same causes which lead to that
will also in all probability lead to the
/ loss of New Jersey and Connecticut
The only good reason which can be
given for Republican confidence then
must be found in Democratic disunion.
Contrary to the views expressed by
many. we look for q fierce campaign
next year. with prospects depending
almost wholly upon the ability with
which Democratic leaders work for
harmony in the ranks. 1t has been
said that if the state of New York
had been large enough to contain two