The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1903-12-02
THE ELECTORAL VOTE IN 1904

lie EVIOnHE tOIE IN 0UT.
To be perfectly frank, Gen. Grosvenor
has for ten years shown himself pretty
good political prophet. He has now be-
gun to prophecy about the 1904 election
Conceding New Yorks electoral vote Of
80 to the Democrats, he figures that the
Republicans will get 263 votes from
''surely Republican states'-or "a more
than majority, leaving GA votes in what
he calls the doubtful column. In states
reckoned ''surely Republican" Gen Gros-
venor puts down California with 10 votes,
which the Democrats carried in 1892 by
470; Connecticut with votes, which the
Democrats carried by 5,367; Illinois with
its 81 votes which the Democrats carried
by 26,903; Indiana with its Is votes which
the Democrats carried by 6, 4S2; New
Jersey with it's II votes, which the Dem
ocrats carried by 1874; West Virginia
with it's votes, which the Democrats
carried by 552; and Wisconsin with it's
Is votes, which the Democrats carried
by 6,47O a total of 81 votes which Mr.
Grosvenor calls surely Republican"
They are surely Republican if the d.
vision In the Democratic party begun in
1894 and continued up to 1900 continues,
but there are many signs of Democratic
unity and of large element of Republic
can voters who will be glad to help de-
feat Mr.. Roosevelt.
Under the new census there are ATS
votes in the electoral college, requiring
the successful candidate to receive 23J
votes to win. No more will the cid COM
bination of the "solid South, New York,
New Jersey, Connecticut and Indiana"
elect Democratic president as it did
In 1884. Other votes will be necessary.
Gen. Grosvenor, in his optimistic predic-
tion for Republican success makes the
following prediction:
epublican-Cahfornia, Colorado. Con-
necticut, Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, Kansas,
sofa, Nebraska, New Jersey. North Da-
kota, South Dakota, New Hampshire,
Oregon. Pennsylvania, Rhode Island,
Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin,
Vermont and Wyoming.-263
Observation-Disclosures, Alabama, Flor
da, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mis-
sissippi, Missouri, North Carolina, South
Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia
Isl.
Doubtful-Delawsre Idaho, Maryland.
Montana, Nevada, New York and Utah
g.
The Chicago Inter Ocean, the most
stalwart and aggressive Republican paper
in Illinois, does not take so rosy view
of the outlook as Gen. Grosveror, and
warns Republicans that conditions have
changed. 1t says:
This prediction is at once untimely
and unfortunate.
The present tendency in national pol
itics must be entirely clear to man OF
Mr.. Grosvenor's experience.-Conditions
in the campaign of 1904 will be very diff
ferent from the conditions of 1896 and
1900, which he apparently has in mind
Thousands of men, representing great
property interests, who We're enthusiastic
supporters of Republican policy In 1896
and 1900 are today quite Indifferent to
the fate of the Republican party.
"A campaign of education will be Just
as necessary in 1904 as it was in 1896
Just as much money will be required to
conduct such campaign. Just. as many
orators and just much campaign lit
erature will be needed, unless the cam
paign is to languish and the flames of
enthusiasm are to be left, Unframed,
to die out. Yet how, under the circum-
stances, will it be possible to get the
money FOR these purposes?
with this problem still unsolved, with
the question raised by Seth Lows over
whelming defeat in New York still IN
answered, what folly is it to predict Il
certain Republican victory in 1904 on the
basis of conditions that prevailed in 1886
and 1900!
at is the part of wisdom to state the
truth to Republican voters, that they
nav know the difficulties, consider them,
and prepare to solve them, instead c.
sitting back in fatuous confidence that
they are to be borne to victory again
on lowery beds of ease.
''Let us look a moment at Mr.. Gros-
yenor's table of Republican certainties