The Savannah morning news., 1903-12-08
Daniel I. SuIIy& Co, Say.

New YORK, dec" IA mai WORD
witt" the American spinners;giT At the
close of last season we advanced the
belief that tf4ed American cotton crop
of 1904 would be inadequate to meet
the defnandI x AT the beginning 0f,sthis
season we reiterated this same belief,
which has been consistently and per-,
sistentlyd adhered to byJus to this day.
Now, al terQta complete win dica ton by
reliable and recognized aatheritisss in7
Guiding the Census Bureau and the Bu-
reau of StatRGes, assAEe interpret these
reports, we feel we can With propriety
and, we hope, Without offense, refer
to our freqdent, and uEger appeals to
the American spinner made during the
past eight months tie buy, bis eotton),y
and make one more appeal to. the same
effect. dfnnsYG5 ts 7adtg9p Z
Theories are vain in, the, face of the
conditions confrqntipg the American
spinner to-day, IS me Commercial crop
of the present season viii fail to meet
the demands 1bf normal Z consumption
and restore the neeessary equilibrium
between raw material and manufac-
tured by 100000 to $780, 900 bales. 1t
is, therefore, idle to make the bare spec
ulative assertion that the government
estimates are too low, However COM
forting for the time being such guess
work may be, it is misleading and
fraught with disaster to the textile
industry of this country. The care
taken in preparing the government re-
ports, the impartiality with which in
formation is weighed and the excep-
tional facilities afforded for the collec-
ton of datanare. sufficient guarantees
of their fairness aRd3of their, accuracy
as forecasts. The Census Bureau alone
had more than 6Q9I paid. canXaSsersl
make. garl7to- gin inspection of their dis
tricts; the Bureau of Statistics had
Give and
bly, as, ireaiable, YET without seeking
toe he epessimtstic, Wet make this, prs.
dietioIa.h { 7it1s1errre1 =, ,so1air,5s =
The estimate of 1852, 900 bales made
by the Bureau of Statistics is too high
by many thousands of bales. Cir
cumstanees referred to in our previous
circulars, and others, that need not be
entered into here, point to this so far
as the criticism that the estimate is
too conservative is concerned. We be-
lieve the bureau would have regard
ed US highly unwise in view of the
prevailing high prices to have placed
its figures one bale below the num-
Der it's information justified" A word
as to consumption. Last years con
sumption Of American cotton was es-.
timated by Mr.. Ellison at, 10,S40,000s
bales. the actual apparent consump-
ti0n. was 10,890,000, and this in the
face Of cuftailment and in many in
stances this countny6Great, Britain and
on the. continent, entire suspension of
mills due ito exhausted stocks of raw
cotton.f In October, just past, Mr.
Ellison! estimated the world require
n1ent of American cotton for this esa-
son, 10;S70o geo bales. On Nov. To- when
cotton reached IL cents, he revised
this estimate and placed it 19.500,090
bales predicting even still smaller com
sumption in the event of higher, prices.
Here is oitr estimate on consumption
Of American, cotton, every bale 4 of
American ticotton that America CAN
produce and more, "It is not a question
of price or the number of bales. but
how much the spinners can get at
any price, The foreign spinner learn.
ed a lession last year. and he has
been buying his cotton early The
American spinner has held back for
lower prices. The expectation of cot
ton reveaI1a condition that spells tire
mendious loss to the American mills
unless immediate steps are taken ito
remedy 81 .---.~-. lf,si' a7n e.}tst
Last year we had a larger crop than
this, and September movement was
the greatest on record. This year,, with
smaller crop and the movement a
month late, 255, 469 more bales had been.
reported up to Dec. than at the same
time last year.
Last week 140,OO0 more paleS were
sent abroad than in the correspond
ing week last year. At least so per
cent. of this years crop already has
been engaged for export. If the for
eign mills are to get the cotton at low
err prices it means that the American
spinners will be undersold and driven
out of the markets both at home and
abroad. Therefore we say to the
American spinner will you consent to
let the foreigner get his cotton at low
prices while you take the remainder
at any figure at which you can buy it?
High as cotton is, cotton is still too
low. The commercial crop of 10000
means the cotton grown and picked in !
those years. There is no surplus or
invisible supply to fall back on. The
price at which you can buy futures to-
day will be cheap in a few months.
Unless you enter the market at once
and anticipate your requirements you
will be compelled to close. Curtailment
will not be for short time, but will
be absolute trsas
1t is useless to predict what you will
have to pay If you wait. What does
Is, l6, 20, even rs cents pound, mean
when "you cannot get the cotton?"
Oa,r advice is 10 blly now before it is