New-York tribune., 1903-04-11
CALCULATION OF MANCHCRIA.

The time set for the second step in Russas
evacuation of Manchuria expired Wednes"
day last, and the step seems to have been
duly taken. Yet are told that the Japan
growing uneasy and impatient over
Russia's delay. From one point of view this
seems somewhat unreasonable. According to
her agreement, Russia was TO evacuate those
provinces by degrees a certain prescribed zone
at time, completing the process or before
October next Thus far she has literally full
filed her engagements. and there is apparent
reason for doubling that she will continue to do
so and will complete her nominal withdrawal
within the next six months, as prescribed in
the treaty When a government or a man
undertakes to do anything by instalments there
is no use in growing impatient so long as each
successive instalment is duly met. 1t is scarcely
supposable, therefore that Japan is uneasy be-
cause Russia has not done by this time that
which she is TO do six months hence.
If Japanese or other concern be directed tow
ard the spirit instead of the letter of Russian
evacua ton, however. it has much more reason
for existence. 1t is conceded by treaty that
Russia may permanently retain such military
guards as may be needed along the line of the
railroad. Russia herself is the sole judge of
the number of such guards needed, and her
Interpretation of the need is significant. She is
establishing fortified blockhouses with strong
garrisOnS at intervals of only three four miles
all along the route. Bridges and strategic points
are being transformed into veritable fortresses.
At Moukden. for example, about six thousand
troops are to be maintained. The total number
of Russian soldiers who Will thus remain in
Manchuria after the evacuation is completed
will by Russian admission. be not less than
thirty thousand, and may be twice three
times q S great
1t must also be borne in mind that these
troops will be stationed along railroad coming
directly from the whole military force Of the
Russian Empire, and in the heart of unarmed
and helpless country. Nobody outside of Rus
sia knows how many Russian troops may be
kept just over the Manchurian border or how
many may at any time be sent thther, ready
to be rushed into Manchura whenever needed,
over railroad of which the Russian Govern
ment has "a complete monopoly. Manchuria.
moreover has been disarmed. and the mporta-
ton of arms and ammunition, or Of materials
for the manufacture of them, is forbidden by
treaty. In such circumstances Russian "evac
uation." no matter how faithfully performed
according TO the letter of the treaty, will be
empty form. Manchuria will remain as com
pletely within the grip of Russas mailed fist
as is Poland Finland
Whether the engaging prospect of free
port at Dalny will prove more real is yet TO
be seen. At present Dalny is a free port At
present Russia has need Of free port there,
and has need to maintain the appearances of it.
Vladivostok free port until a few years
ago. when a tariff was imposed there that
practically crushed all non Russian commerce.
At the close of the Turkish war of 1877 there
were strong promises that BatoUm should be
made free port. but they remained unfulhlled
for eight years and then were specifically
pudiated It is, of course. possible that Dalny
will be forever kept free port. If so, it will be
unique in Russian history. The reasonable
pectaton is that it will before long become
all other Russian ports are. and that Man
churia will be transformed into Russian prov
ince. Certainly nothing seems to stand
as an effective barrier against such consum-
nation.