The Montgomery advertiser., 1903-12-08
SHOULD BUY NOW THE AMERICAN SPINNER
 SHOULD ACT. D. J. Sully 6 Co. Say That Cotton is Sure to Go Higher-Foreign Spinners Get Cotton
 Cheap.

NEW YORK. Dec. "A final word with the American spinners. At the close of last sea- son, we advanced the belief that the Amcri- can cotton crop of Ieo3-4 would be inade- quate to meet the demand. At the beginning of this season we reiterated this same belief, which has been consistently and persistently adhered to by us to this day.
 Now, after a complete vindlcation by re- liable and recognized authorities, including the Census Bureau and the Bureau of statis- tics. as we interpret these reports, we feel we can with propriety and we hope. without offense. refer to our frequent and urgent ap- peals to the American spinner made during the past eight months to buy his cotton, and make one more appeal to the same effect. The ories vain in the face of the conditions con- fronting the American spinner to day. The commercial crop of the present season will fail to meet the demands of normal consulnp- tion and restore the necessary equilibrium be- tween raw material and ranrfacture by i.- 500, 600 to g. 800, GOO bales It Is therefore idle to make the bare speculative assertion that the Government estimates too low.
 However comforting for the time being such guesswork may be, it is misleading and fraught with disaster to the textile industry of this country. The care taken in preparipg the Government reports. the impartiality with which information is weighed and the eXcep- tional facilities afforded for the collection of data, are sufficient guaranties of their fair ness and of their accuracy as forecasts.
 The Census Bureau alone had more than 500 paid canvassers to make gin-to-gin inspections of their districts The Bureau of Statistics had sources more extensive and presumably as
 
 tic we make this prediction: The estimate ne g. 920, 900 bales made by the Bureau of Sta tistics is too high by many thousands of bales. Circumstances, referred to m our previous GIT, culars and others that need not be entered into here. point to this. So far as the criti- cism that the estimate Is too conservative Is concerned. we believe the bureau would have regarded 1t highly unwise, in view of the pr" yailing high prices, to have placed its figures one bale below the number its information jus" tifed
 sumption of American cotton was estimated by MT. Ellison at o.S4o, GOO bales. The ac tual apparent consumption was loSSoooO bales and this in the face of curtallment ana in many instances in this country, Great Brt- tain and on the continent, entire suspension Of mills due to exhausted stocks or raw cotton In October just past, Mir. Ellison estimated the worlds requirements of American cotton for this season at Io.67o. 900 bales Novem- Der 10, when cotton reached II cents he re, vised this estimate and placed 1t at Io poo Ooo bales predicting even still smaller consump ton in event of higher prices.
 Here is our estimate on the consumption of American cotton: Every bale of American cotton that America can produce. It is not a question of price or the number of bales. but how much the spinners can get at any price. The foreign spinner learned lesson last wear and he has been buying his cotton early The American spinner has held back for lower prices. The exportation of cotton reveals a condition that spells tremendous loss to American mills unless immediate steps are taken to remedy it. Last year We had larger crop than this and September movement was the greatest on record. This year with a smaller crop and the movement month late 255 46o more bales had been exported up to Dec. 4th than at the same time last year. Last week 40. 900 more bales were sent abroad than in the corresponding week last year. At least 50 per cent of this years crop already has been engaged for export. If the foreign mills are to get their cotton at lower prices' 1t means that the American spinners will be un- dersold and driven out of the markets, both at home and abroad. ,-, ,
 will you continue to let the foreigner get his cotton at low prices while you take the re- mainder at any figure at which you can buy it? High as cotton is. cotton is still too low, The commercial crop of IeoS-4 means the cotton grown and picked in those years There is no surplus or invisible supply to fall back on The price at which you can buy futures today will be cheap in a few months, Unless you enter the market at once and anticipate your requirements, you will be coInpelle7 to close Crrtailment will not be on short time. It will be absolute. It is useless to predict what you will have to pay if you wait What does i5 I6, 20. even 25 cents pound mean when you cannot get the cotton? our advice Is to buy now before 1t Is too late
 adv. DANIEL J. SULLY & co.