The Minneapolis journal. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn.) 1888-1939, 1903-06-06
WALL ST. NO INDEX
Conditions There Not Sure Indica-
ton Of the Country's
Condition.
The Financial Age Gives Valuable
Facts and Figures in It's
Review.
Special to The Journal.
NaNy Ynn.lr lima a n

Special to The Journal
New York, June 6.-The Financial Are in it's
weekly review says: - ~
With the recent fall in stock market values
the old question whether Wall street is or Is not
reliable barometer of our commercial status has
again come to the front There are many who
profess to believe that the sentiment of the
stock market Is purely q speculative one and
that the fluctuations represent manipulation or
at best mere surface conditions, while those who
hold to the opposite view claim that each trade
reaction Is preceded by fall in security values.
Ihfs statement, so far rs 1t goes, is undoubtedly
correct, but 1t reminds one very much of the
beautiful geological truth that ''altho every
1ackass Is an animal, every animal is not
Jackass And SO 1t Is with declines In the stock
market; If each one We're forerunner of Indus
trial depression commercial position would
be deranged every few months. The severe de-
cline in the spring OF 1859, after the Flower
boom" was not followed by trade disturbances;
neither was the panic OF May g. 1901, the
fall III securities during the autumn of that year.
So 1t is evident that If Wall street is the pulse
OF the country it's errntic beatings do not always
denote the condition Of commercial strength.
BUSINESS CONTINUES GOOD.
At the present writing there is certainly but
little evidence OF relaxation in business activity
bank clearings are large railroads report In
creased earnings and manufacturers and jobbers
In most lines have sold more goods during the
past five months than in the same period OF
1902. In the building trade alone has the de-
mand shown n slackening, and this may be read
and the labor troubles OF the past six months. It
may be, however, that the curtailment that in
some quarters Is regarded natural conse-
quence Of the lack Of buying power In the stock
market has not vet extended further west than
Wall street. When the income of the ordinary
investor shows signs OF diminishing or IL he has
invested all his surplus, the security market will
feel the effects six months or yearW before the
industrial and commercial quarters are depressed,
and for this reason the absence OF the bargain
hunters during the recent break is perhaps the
most disturbing Indication Of the situation In the
stock market.
Whether these are underlying causes OF the
present depression. or 1t is simply the result Of
unreasoning speculative sentiment will not be ap-
parent until the fall, and for this reason there
is little likelihood Of an active market during
the next few months, conservative interests pre-
ferring to await developments.
THE OUTFLOW OF GOLD.
A slight rise In both call and time funds
raises the question of how long the present out
ward movement Of gold will continue The pres
ent Indications that shipments are nearly
ended, and should the money market continue TO
harden gold exports will Immediately cease The
movement this year has been earlier than usual
Gold has been exported In quantity from New
York In every June but two since 1895. Those
exceptions were 1898 and 1902. In 1901 June
gold exports were $5,o19,157 1900, $7,96s 99s; In
1899. $40 SAG, 1888; In 1897, $7.213,363; In 1885,
IS, 1851 ,543.
The record Of June for number Of years back
shows that loans have invariably increased, but
the movements Of cash and surplus reserve has
been by no means uniform. both having m
creased during three of the past six years and
decreased In three. s. =:t-r 4.
In June, 1902, loans Increased $s,279 200;
but as cash holdings also increased 1925 100 the
surplus rose 81, O49,35O. Loans Increased $685.
O66, $50 in June, 1901, and cash went $7,922'SoO
lower, chiefly because OF gold exports. The sur
plus fell $12, res, $50. June, 1900 witnessed $S
100 300 loan expansion. while cash holdings
wholly because of gold exports. decreased 30
$780, 200. The surplus fell So, 263, 900. In June
1899, there was heavy borrowing, while gold
went out to pay the Spanish indemnity. Loans
Increased $4O,2s1, 800, cash declined $24 500 $780,
and the surplus fell $2s,436, $50. In 1898 loans
expanded SIG, 365, 500 and cash $40 927 6oo-treas
ury and interior botn contributing. The surplus
increased SO, 763, $50. Loans rose $l4,l7l,90O In
June. 1897 and cash increased 81 500, 100, again
because both Of the treasurys and the Interior
assistance. The surplus rose 81 623 $50.
If precedent may be relied on, 1t is reasonable
to expect an expansion of loans during the
present month; but presidents in bank statements
are by no means infallibe guides, as for, exam
pie: Surplus reserves had Increased in, May
during every one Of the past Ave years, but it
decreased last month. Loans had decreased heavs
lily in every May but one since 1898. They in
crease this May. Tss .s.s 4t-f ls,.. ..,..,.-