Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1903-08-28
AUsTRALIA's PROBLEM
A New Country and a Declining Birth
Rate.
From the London Chronicle.

From the London Chronicle.
Mr. Coghlan, the Australian statistician.
heads a chapter in publication he has
just issued with the sentence above quoted.
The figures given by him are startling in
their significance. According to Mr.. Cogh-
Ian the fall in the birth-rate in Australia
and in New Zealand, taken together, is
such that there are annually fewer births
by nearly 20,C00 than would have occurred
If the rates prevailing as late as ten years
ago had been maintained. Mr.. Coghlan
holds that striking example Of the de-
cline can be drawn from New South Wales.
In 1887 there WERE he says. in this state.
1l2.247 married women under the age of
forty-five years. in 1901 there were 1927.
yet the number of children born was about
the same in each year. Mr.. Coghlan adj
mits that part Of this falling OF Is due
to the cessation of the immigration of
young married women; but. he contends.
for ten years and more the movement or
population has been normal. and the de-
cline in the natural increase may be as
stunned to be fixed condition of Australian
social progress.
The following are given as the legitimate
birth rates per thousand married women
under forty-five years of age In each divis-
ion of Australasia for the year 1901: Vic
toria, 22S.6: New South Wales. 1858; South
Australia, $3.50: Western Australia, A3.9;
New Zealand. 2+6.1: Queensland. 254O: Tas-
mania, 800. In the year 1891 the average
for Australasia was about 276 per thousand.
while the average Of the foregoing rates IS
80
The following figures which are deduced
from the New South Wales experience. may
be taken as exemplifying the condition of
the states as a whole. They give the num-
Der of legitimate births to every thousand
married women under the age of forty
five years. during a period of twenty-One
years; and from the persistent and regular
character of the fan, 1t may be surmised
that the minimum has not even yet been
reached, and a further decline may be
looked for: 1881. 1868: 1882. 1905; 1888 1856:
1884. 1852; 1888, Bill; 1886. 1888; 1887,
1891. 2Ss7; 1892. 1854; 1898, 2s1.4; 1894.
2571: 1895, 1908: 1896. 2iO.4: 1897, 2II3;
1893. 2296; $780, 226.6; 1900, 227.1; 1901.
1854
that the decline in the birth-rate is mani
fest in every class and among people of
every shade of opinion and Of every So
cial condition. except among women of
irish birth" Mr.. Coghlan says: "a factor
tending toward a decrease in the proper
ton of births is the decline In the Irish
element of the population 1t will hare
been seen in the chapter dealing with the
subject, that among mothers of Irish birth
the number of children to a marriage has
remained much the same as formerly.
while among all other women there has
been a great decline. Wherever women
of Irish birth are numerous the birth-rate
has been higher than elsewhere, but, as
the proportion of Irish women is fast de-
creasing. this element in the maintenance
OF the birth-rate will presently disappear.
Large as Is the area. of the Australian
continent" says Mr.. Coghlan. in conclu-
sion. 1T 10 impossible that its people will
ever become truly great under the condi-
tons affecting the Increase Of population
which now obtain. Immigration has prac-
tically ceased to be an important factor,
the maintenance and increase Of popula-
ton depending upon the birth-ra.e alone, q
t II,S M geopie has ever "f become ersat
under such conditions. or. having attained
greatness. has remained great for any
heightened period. The problem OF the fan
tn the bifth-rate n. therefore. Q national