Daily Kennebec journal. [microfilm reel] (Augusta, Me.) 1870-1975, 1903-03-14
A Far Glance at 1904.

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The Washington correspondents, now
that Congress has adjourned, are tax
ing 1904 as a frequent text in their let
tiers and with practical unanimity
they fail to find any cloud upon the
horizon of Republican prospects. That
Roosevelt will be nominated is a fore
gone conclusion, and his election, at
this time. seems equally certain. The
New York Post is as independent as
any naper in the country, and it never
goes out of it's way to praise Republic
can achievements or prophesy Republic
gan success. In a recent issue, its
Washington correspondent looks over
the field. and his summing up of the
situation is as fair and impartial as
any that can be made.
The Post correspondent does not dis
cuss the matter of candidates, but as
sumes that Bryan will be out of it and
that the Democrats will be united and
| have their. strongest man at the front
Against them Will be President Roose-
| welt, the issue of prosperity and
progress, the prestige of success and
power, and the splendid Republican
| record of positive achievements. The
| Post goes into ancient history and
| shows that for twenty years the Solid
South, New York and Indiana" was
| the Democratic slogan. That combina-
ton would have elected Tilden in 1876;
| it would have sufficed to elect Cleve-
| land in 1884. Each of these Democratic
candidates. to be sure, carried New
| Jersey and Connecticut but in the lat
| ter case the two We're unnecessary, while
| in Tildens time this gain did not offset
! the loss of South Carolina, Florida, and
! Louisiana, but it almost did so. The
| so effective a combination that the
| political battles of a generation were
| planned on that basis. Were a Demo-
| cratic candidate in 1904 to have this
| support he would be sixteen votes short
of a majority. In 1892 the Solid South,
| New York and Indiana no longer
| sutfced but there was this important
! difference between results under that
| apportionment and now: The Solid
South has lost three of it's states,
Maryland, Delaware and West Vir-
| ginia-all of which are, to say the
| least, debatable ground-and what re-
4 mains is so small as to require larger
lreinforccments from the North than in
| the nineties.
New York may still be the key to
| Democratic success, but it opens only
an outer door. The South which the
| Democrats can now rely on, excluding
| the three states already named, casts
| Isl electoral votes, and New York
casts 80. This would make 100 electoral
| Where are these votes to come from p?
| Indiana is now as securely Republican
| as Massachusetts; it's Republican plu-
rality in the recent Congressional cleo
| ton was 35.554. Massachusetts on the
| same day showed Republican lead of
37,120, bearing about the same relation
in proportion to population. Indiana
has no large cities and hence no mer-
| curial vote, like that of Chicago or
| Cleveland or Boston. 1t should as
surely be eliminated from Democratic
! calculations as Massachusetts. The
| of the stage, because of it's pivotal
| character, are over.
| The Democrats will go into the cam
paign sure of carrying 10 states of the
| old South, including Missouri and
kentucky, giving them Isl votes. OF
course. if they cannot carry New York
| they might as well go out of business
| at the start, since it will be hard
| enough to win even with that state.
| They will need 40 electoral votes be-
sides Where are these to come from?
Obviously, Illinois is the great state
for which the Democrats should now
play, for it has q electoral votes; if
they could carry Dew York and
Illinois the chances would be favor
able for picking up the % additional
votes which would be necessary from
the Rocky Mountain region or from
those border states which have recent
iy been going Republican. But with
/ anything short of New York and
Illinois as a basis Democratic pros
poets are extremely poor. 1t may be
observed. however, that Illinois is
now giving larger Republican plurali-
ties, according to population, than
Massachusetts or Indiana, and hence
that it is more reasonable to expect
recovery of Democratic power in its
old strongholds, such as Indiana and
New Jersey and Connecticut, than in