New-York tribune., 1903-04-05
Financial.
The Financial World.

on the technical position Ihere mas Oe~h q
considerable decline. there - a substantial short
interest: some OF the depressing factors are
sentimental rather than real. and it takes little.
under such conditions to start upward turn
The way the market stiffened I'D toward tn>
close Yesterday after temporary depression
caused bv an Unexpectedly Unfavoraols oanA
statement. points this way
~ such a rally comes. seems probable r.
WILL We shall probably hear some talk aeons
the bottom having been reached and fhat W
are about 10 enjoy another great bull market.
II would be comfcrting-especially 20 comnlls~
sion houses, which starve in times IKE these
70 believe that such market was imrediafsly
ahead of rs. Unfortunately, there is too slender
ground upon which TO base such belief too
much reason to believe that the ootton. 'h7
fnat turning point. has not been reacned ye'
Even Mr.. Morgan in his formal pronounce
msnt last Tuesday, (hts valedictory, as soiil@
called it, for he is just going aoroad) dld nov
much more than a negative ground He arguS7
that the situation all right, except for tns
.rrdigested securities and these secur1ties
we're sound and issued for valuable cons1ders-
ton there was no reason for decline IN tne lscl
of their existence in an undigested conollioh-
of course the obvious reply was. that an lndi~
yidusI or a stock market, with mass or uh~
digested food in his its stomach, IS AZ lsast
in no state 10 take more: and sometimes consld-
cradle pains ana Srlpln8S dtLSiAd 'Ac Si'~~-7
digestion The latter has happened. and IS nap
penfng TO the stock market
There is TO sounder stock on the list tnsn
Pennsylvania There is no iner railroad sSs-
tenn in the world than the Pennsy lvanla systern-
None is better managed. or. with the strength
Of years has YET a greater future before IT, It's
stock is deservedly in great favor with invest
ors Yet it has been declining for weeks past
and seems certain of further decline Why
NJ in ulzua
of extension and Improvement. has called upon
the public 10 furnish him with more millions
than il can conveniently do. The public had
scarcely caught it's breath from a demand Tor
hftv millions when II was staggered b. a fur
ther demand for something ike etghty-three
millions more The thing is TOO much That
the money will be wisely and judiciousy ex-
pended no one doubts, but that is not the
trouble It is the great bulk called for in the
short time.
The subscription price Of the new issue Is 10
Fifty per cent of this is payable in June. Ths
stock is now quoted in the market at 30 II.
before the time that the first instalmenr Is due.
the market price should be down TO the SUB
scription price IL would not be surprising one
does not say that it will. only that there would
be nothing surprising in such decline If II did
occur This simply because the new issue ts
pressed upon the investing public at a time
itaI into fixed has already proceeded 70 an ez-
tent which embarrasses the money u1arket
What Mr. Cassatt has done. the banking CON-
munity was complaining some time ago, thai
Mr. Morgan was doing We axe called UP II
his office every week for a new subscription
was the complaint The surplus money avaiIs-
BILE for new issues. however good they may BE-,
becomes exhausted by such repeated calls th9
money market begins TO give trouble: and then
rL-a sta ~ decline
It would decline from such exhaustion OF thu
surplus available for new investment. if everEf
new issue had been only of sound. dividend pey-
ing securities; but boom times such as we have
hal always bring into the field mass of un-
sound stuff. in which great losses occur 7he-t
the boom is over, and so contribute 70 pull down
the prices Of better goods. All these are rms
familiar things of the speculative world They
are exhibited in operation in Wall Street to-day
and yet we see a good deal Of talk in the papers.
some of it rather heated about this or that in
dividual operator being responsible for falling
stock market.
ANY operator who had attempted 70 stem the
tide of speculation which began strongly TO rise
about the period of our short Spanish war.
would have only netted losses commensurate
with his mistaken efforts. II was at that tirns
that the prediction was made in this column, as
coming from the s6undest banking sources. thai
greater industrial and speculative expansion
than had ever been known in it's history. How
true this was events have proved More than
six months ago from the same high source.
came the prediction that the expansive move
ment had reached it's limit: and declining STOCK
market must be looked for as the result THIS
also has proved true. The question natursliE
follows has the bottom been reached On ths
same authority one must reply the evidence y
that II has not
As uroverbially. when poverty comes IN at the
door love flies out at the window, 1t IS AWAY
the case that falling market is very produr-
tive of tickerings and quaTrels. which are com
monty set down as the of the decline
whereas they are an effect Of it. This is the
with the controversy over the Southern Pacific.
which psople who have friends both sides
must depIore as unfortunate. II is too late
70 discuss what might have been done or what
might have been avoided II is necessary II So
things as they are Much personal feeling has
been excited but happily in place does such
feeling evaporate more rapidly than IN Wall
street
The Union Pacific party purchased its hold
ings Of Southern Pacific stock at an average ~
about 5n and we're extremely we'll pleased A.
their bargain The present price os the stock
81 Unless the property has deprecated in value
since the purchase was made Southern Pacin~
al ~ is AZ 4 bargain price No one claims that
If has depreciated The contention Of the MI
nortv holders is that the party in possession ts
not treating the property fairly Whichever side
wins in the election. IL is certain that harm
can happen TO southern Pacific. For this rss-
son-the attention Of the investing and speculs-