New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1903-12-27
NEWS OF TWO CAPITALS.
AFFAIRS IN LONDON.
Far East Situation More Critical
England and Panama.


London. Dec 2s-The chances of war IN IN. 4,.r
East have increased, but the news is not decisive
The temperature FELL in the European bourses be-
fore the holidays as there was fresh evidence Of
the dispatch OF coal and munitions OF war and
the negotiation OF large contracts for winter
clothing, pig iron and railway material. The
dispatches from Toxic. St. Petersburg. Berlin
emo Vienna agree IN the forecast that there
cannot be rupture Of relations until the Rus
sian answer TO the second japanese note is re-
oeived- The interval of a fortnight viii be
available for negotiations If the current rumors
THAI the japanese government, warned by the
Russian methods OF procrastination, has i'm
posed a time limit. This time limit whether
added verbally or IN diplomatic correspondence
would convert the japanese demand into an
ultimatum. But ii is not certain that the date
has been named. Even more uncertain are the
versions Of the disputed issues current at the
various capitals and bourses. II Russia persists
in claiming the right TO lease the harbor Of
Masanpho. in Southern Corea, which can be
made base OF operations against Japan itself
war may be regarded as a foregone conclusion.
II Japan converts the demand for the withdrawal
OF the Russian troops from Msnchuria into an
ultiTnatum. war viii be equally certain. Neither
premise can be definitely stated, and the conclu-
sion is untrustworthy in either case
Dynastic and diplomatic alliances are strong
safeguards OF peace France is under general
obligation TO fight for Russia il a second power
Joins japan In belligerent operations. Eng
land is directly committed to armed interven-
ton il Japan be attacked by two powers The
risks that any third power VIII be drawn into
the conflict minimized by the cordial rela-
tons between France and England. for which
King Edward IS mainly responsible. Yet these
risks remain sufficiently serious TO induce both
the French and the British governments to
exert strong influence in favor OF peace. The
German interests equally clear: if the
German Emperor were a malevolent conspirator
against the peace Of the world. he might be
suspected Of secret longing TO bring about
naval war and cripple the fleets both Of Japan
and Russia and of England and France. but his
worst enemy could not consider him malig
nant as he is clever untimely and irritating
as HIS references to Waterloo have been.
The year closes with good many diplomatic
tangles and racial complications 10 be unrav-
elled The Thibetan expedition from India has
background of Russian intrigue. The Mace
DOMAIN question offers opportunity for Eng
land 20 take the initiative and force Austria
and Russia 10 become genuine, instead OF make
believe. reformatory agents, but the Foreign
ONCE hesitates and plays with the burning sub
3ect- The Macedonian leaders Sarafoff and
GueroJicon, are starting for Paris and Rome, in
order TO influence public opinion there but they
have little faith in obtaining the diplomatic as
sistance Of the Western powers, and expect to
resume guerilla operations in Macedonia In the
early spring. Their colleague. DR.. Tatarcheff.
may visit America in February in order to pre-
sent the Macedonian cause in a favorable light
and solicit financial aid. The leaders, Sarafoff
and GaerdJioofE, not swashbucklers or
dynamite criminals but highly educated men.
with genuine enthusiasm for the Macedonian
cause. II is not known whether they have pro-
ouced any impression upon the Foreign Office.
directly or indirectly or on Sir Henry Drum
mond Wolf, who takes deep interest in the
Macedonian question.
The belated action OF the British government
announced to-day, in recognizing the Pr mama
Republic. is probably due 10 the inertia of the
overworked and conservative Foreign Secretary
and is not intended as an affroat TO the State
Department, which set the example quickly
followed by the other powers. The delay has
not clouded the relations Of England and Amer
lea but il serves to enforce the moral that the
functions Of the American Embassy here are
not purely social and that there are times when
serious business must be done with dignity
and expert talent Critical observers OF Ameri-
can diplomacy are disposed to wonder whether
diplomacy might not have hindered the German
Emperor IN Turing England into the dangerous
Venezuela coalition unpopular here and
might not have kept the Foreign Office from
being so deliberate in recognizing Panama.
Neither wars aIarums nor Christmas greet
ings have silenced the voices Of the political
agitators. The by-electiors. like the statistics
OF the Board Of Trade, enable the clever mathe-
naticians OF both parties TO cipher out demon
STATIONS favorable TO their own views. Ludlow
with a shrinkage OF 1900 in the Conservative
majority since 1892, hardly seemed to justify
the liberal psaans over the uprising Il the coun-
Try against the deInoralized government and
the prOtectonist intriguers. The Tory gets in
and comparisons are Of an uncertain value in
an agricultural district not seriously contested
FOR a long period. Ludlow, in line with Dulwich
and Lewisham, indicates that there is nothing
like popular stampede against Mr.. Chamber
lain's fiscal proposals. II the government lost
five out OF eight seats in the by-elections before
the Sheffield conference and Mr.. ChamberIain's
resignation. II has held every contested seat
since the free trade cause was abandoned off,
cially by Mr. Balfour and strenuousy by Mr.
Chamberlain
The logic OF the lest fourteen by-elections is
not conclusive. but indicates that the Conserva-
was definitely raised than they were when the
Education act and the nnisulsnagement OF the
War ONCE were the chief issues. The free
traders who imagined that the Tory protec-
tonists had delivered themselves into the enc
my's hands are no longer playing with illu-
Eions They are convinced that Mr.. Chamber
lain has the support OF powerful business in
terests and that the working people love 10 hear
his voice Mr. Chamberlain himself. by becom-
ing the chairman OF the Tariff Reform Commits