The Topeka state journal. [volume] (Topeka, Kansas) 1892-1980, 1903-12-14
GLOOM DISAPPEARS.
Old-Time Activity Reappears
on Wall Street.

New York, Dec 14-Henry Clews &
Co.'S Financial Review says:
History is again repeating itself, and
after the severe financial depression of
the last eleven months the year is clos
ing with a recovery that surprises those
not familiar with the elasticity of
American temperament. Gloom has
suddenly disappeared, and in its place
a calmer vision is gaining sway, ex-
cept where speculative enthusiasm
causes a too violent swing of the pendu-
lum. Old time activity has appeared on
the stock exchange, and seems likely to
stay, for period at least. Sharp ad-
vanceS occurred some of them too
sharp; yet the whole trend of affairs
portant changes for the better have
taken place in the financial world.
Strong support has been given the up
ward movement of late; there being
marked absence of the liquidating sales
which effectually killed every preceding
effort for the rise. This clearly demon
strates that the great liquidation move
ment of 1903 Is at an end, and explains
the assistance given by powerful in
siders, whose confidence is of course re-
stored by knowledge that the weakest
features have been eliminated. The rise
has unquestionably been greatly stirnu-
lated by fright among the shorts, who
had become altogether too numerous
for safety; and professionals quickly
ranged themselves on the side of ac-
tivity. Several important bull pools APP
peared to have been formed, and to
these were attributed the fluctuations in
some OF the SpecialtieS; yet all of these
movements were based chiefly upon
changed conditions in the speculative
situation, chief of which was satisfac-
tory evidence that the severest 1iquidat-
4ng movement the stock exchange had
ever witnessed had run its course.
What wonder, then, with the chief
source of anxiety removed, that the
market should show an unusual re-
bound
Aside. however, from purely specula-
tive conditions, 1t is proper to consider
the larger influences which rule the
stock market in the long run. Taking
It for granted that prosperity reached
its zenith in 1902, and that neither 1903
nor 1904 will equal thatmarvellousy year,
1t is utter folly to expect that general
business will experience any reaction
corresponding to the downward plunge
on the stock exchange, which carried
values down so to so per cent. That de-
cline was due to causes too well
known; and, now that these have been
discounted, it is but reasonable for
values to recover to a point more COM
mensurate with the very moderate re-
action that has so far taken place in
business. In some fields of enterprise
that reaction may go farther, especial
" where high costs of materials and
labor have imposed prohibitive cOndi-
ti0ns; but, as these come back to the
normal, deferred projects will be re-
sumed and prosperity will follow upon
a more normal basis than for the last
few years. Already the iron trade is
beginning to feel the stimulus of low
er prices. This getting back to normal,
however, is always an uncomfortable
time for those who antagnize it, and
is likely to be the bottom factor in flu
ture movements. The stock market
plunged from an abnormally high to an
abnormally low level, and it is now not
only seeking its own proper status but
also adjusting itself to business con-
ditions with which it has long been
grossly out of tune. Our agricultural
classes in all parts of the country are
still enjoying unusual prosperity, and
there will be no lack of employment
for labor when wages and materials
get upon a reasonable basis.
Gold imports are extending an i'm
portant influence upon speculation.
Thus far about 1000 900 have arrived
and engaged to come to. this side and
more is expected to follow. Commercial
conditions are discouraging to imports
but favorable to EXPORTS some of our
products, such as cotton for instance,
being taken freely at exceptionally nigh
prices. This should create a favorable
trade balance and continue to improve
our credit abroad, which is already in
much better position than year ago.
The local monetary outlook is promtS-
ing. There is the possibility of a furry
between now and the new year arising
from preparations for heavy dividend
disbursements, etc, but afterward the
tendency should be towards easier mon
ey, unless stock speculation becomes too
active. Funds withdrawn for crop pur-
poses are already returning, and Janu-
airy should see rising averages for the
surplus reserve. Our borro wings abroad
are much less than a year ago, and this
Improvement in the money situation
should not be forgotten
Speculation in the local traction stocks
has been a feature, presumably due to
the belief that they will receive more
consideration from the new administra-
ton than the old. Other shares have
also advanced in sympathy with the
general better feeling, and in spite of
free realizing sales. All indications
point to a more active market for some
time to come, in which sharp f1uctua-
tions in both directions will probably
be witnessed. The cotton market and
the Northern Securities case, however,
should be closely watched; likewise the
situation in the far east.