The Providence news. (Providence [R.I.]) 1891-1906, 1903-09-01
BIG SLUMP
IN COTTON
PREDICTED
Prospects Of Biggest Crop Ever
Grown Here Good, Says Ex-
pert Theodore \. Price.

New York, Sept. i-Ths most enormous
cotton crop ever grown in Amertca ts
Indicated by complete reports from SIS
OF the 7ss counties that produce the whole
crop OF the United States. The indicated
yield, as reported by correspondents Iiy.
ing in the cotton fields. Is l2. 7os. $50 bales.
This 10 very nearly 100000 more bales
than were. produced In the largest crop
In the history OF America The greatest
crop ever grown before this year was
IN 1898, when the yield was 1l,25sooo
| bales. --,--,'22S
slump in the cotton market that will
shake the whole country is forecasted
| by these figures.
Theodore III. Price the cotton expert.
who has been known as the Cotton
King. for years. predicts this slump
and shows how II will come as the result
OF natural laws. In specially prepared
statement, given 10 the reporter. for
publication today. Mr.. Price gives the
farmers OF the country a warning that
the price OF cotton must come down.
This Is the most important and most
vital statement have ever made on the
subject OF cotton said Mr. Price
Ihe Immense. paper profits OF the suly
VII be humbIe1 to the dust n Mr.
Prices statement counts for aueht.
Here are few OF the points that stand
out In Mr.. Prices statement:
Ihe cotton acreage Is the largest ever
known In this country
The condition OF the crop is the best
since 1884,
The crop averages % day. late. which
Is an evidence OF plenty OF moisture dur
ing the summer and a consequent in
crease N the strength and fruitage Of
the plant
A 12.ooooeO BALE CROP.
After giving the figures which promise
the l2.ooo 600 bale crop. Mr. Price saws:
experience shows that the cotton
trade Is no exception TO the general
economic law underlying all commercial
price movements. viz: diminishing
demand and Increasing supply following
nish prices, and conversely an increas-
ing demand and a diminishing supply
following the low prices
In view OF these facts II seems TO me
reasonably safe to assume that the con-
dltions OF supply with which the cotton
trade OF the world will have to deal dur
ing the next twelve months are likely
to be the reverse OF those which have
existed during the past four years. which
nave been characterized by a moderate
panding trade throughout the world"
Mr. Price says that cotton can be
produced at six cents a pound and that
wnen sold at nine cents pound the pro-
duction will be Increased and when sold
at seven cents or below the increase will
disappear.
1T is for this reason" says Mr.. Price.
that l have not regarded II as a sound
commercial operation to buy cotton above
nine cents per pound. That price paws
handsome profit 10 the plan and al
lows reasonable margin 10 the manufac-
turer. much higher figure results In
the disorga nization OF trade. a reduction
In consumption which Is but slowly re-
covered and an effort 10 abnormaly In
crease production which is generally fol-
lowed by very unprofitable prices
WOULD SPOIL MONOPOLY.
Present prices OF cotton. NJ long min.
tained, would. in my opinion. ultimately
deprive America Of the monopoly OF cot
ton production she now enjoys There
are In South Africa. Mexico. Brazil.
Egypt. East India and Asiatic Russia.
enormous areas well adapted to cotton
culture. where labor is cheaper than in
the south. and which would inevitably.
come into competition with us were II
practicable long TO maintain cotton at 10
cents per pound Having regard. there
u IN
the south, II is exceedingly doubtful n
IL would be permanently conserved
through a continuation of present
prices"
MI Price gives figures to prove his
assertion that present prices are alto
gether abnormal He says the worlds
visible supply OF cotton is considerably
larger than in 1890 and that the AmerI-
can supply is only 27.ooo bales smaller
than IL was that year and the supply
Of cotton actually in America Is Ga 600
bales greater than in that year Despite
this fact middlng cotton was quoted
then at cents a pound lower than pres
ent prices. He rays that II was m
creased TO II cents I'm 1900 by sensational
reports regarding the crop, but this in
crease was followed by sharp decline
to LIS. which was the ruling price
throughout the season.
The experience Of that wear is not
without It's suggestion In the present
situation" says Mr. Price
Since July 4. upon about which date
the supply OF cotton I'm America passed
into the control OF the so-called bull
clique. the amount OF American cotton
taken by other than southern mills.
which were presumably well supplied,
has fallen 10 $4,000 bales n week. and the
mills OF the North and in Europe are
siill continuing 10 SMUT down"
In closing his statement Mr.. Pr.ce ad-
xIeaa the cOtton rrodnrove