The Ely miner. [volume] (Ely, Minn.) 1895-1986, 1903-03-27

| fitable, all other branches of industry
are prosperous. During the past few
| years the production and profits of the
| iron trade have been large, and at the
present time there are more plants in
| operation than at any previous date in
| the history Of the country and the sup
ply does not keep pace with demand.
every concern in the trade having or
| ders booked ahead for many months.
| How long this happy state of affairs
VIII continue, it is impossible to saw.
but the outlook is hsight for it's CON
| tinuance for some time to come.
But, despite the promising prospect
there are calamity prophets abroad in
the land who are predicting a slumn
III production and profits They have
oeeh making such prophecies semi
annually since 1899, but so far there is
nothlng to show that there is any i'm
pending slump. All these predictions
ilaVe~peen based on the postuIate that
history in the iron trade has been y
succession of brief active periods fol-
lowed by much longer periods of com
paralVe idleness. But is this view cor
cort! This is an important point he,
cause If it is not true, then tbe oro,,-
ments based on it are fallacious The
IRON Trade Review asserts that "i+ :.
dlstlnctly not true" and backs I'M tia
assertion by quqoting the production
nsures. In the thirty-six wears from
1901 TO 1902, there were twentv-ona
years IN each one of which all previous
leeoios Tor the production of pig iron
were broken. In only fifteen wears was
II true that any previous year had pro.
uuced larger tonnage, and in four of
tnese fifteen it was only a sineIa nro
Vlous year that had done so Tn tbs
thlrty-four years of open-heartb staaI
manufacture only four years failed in
break all previous production records
and these four years were all back in
the SVs' In the thirtysix years of Bes-
seiier steer manufacture only nine years
Ialled to break all previous records.
and about half of these cases were due
10 the Vagaries in the rail demand
In the past twenty-three years. for
which alone statistics Of the countrv's
coal production are available. there
were but five years in which all pre
Vlous production records were nor
broken. Certainly the direful prophets
who are expecting history to repeat it.
self could never have studied these
statistics.
Perhaps it will be claimed that pro-
auction is not necessarily profit. The
Review thinks this may be doubted Ii
is those who in hard times have not
produced that have gone to the wall.
In the records Of the successful con-
Germs of today, which kept on produc-
ing and have survived, we doubt if
many years could be found in which
fair profits were not made If then,
there are profits for some while others
fail, it is a question of the survival of
the flttest, Of much more moment to
the individual than to the iron trade as
a. whole.
From an examination of several de-
cades of achievement in the iron trade
it does not appear that the pace of the
past few years has been so rapid and
phenomenal as to invite disaster. Take
the production of pig iron in 1902, and
divide it in half, which gives S,910,654
tons. This lies between the production
of 1891 and that of 1902. Divide again
by two, which gives 4,455,326 tons, and
this lies between the production of 1881
and 1882. Divide again, giving 2,227,-
663 tons, and it is found that the pro-
duction lies between the production of
1871 and that of 1872, and the process
could be carried further, if the records
of earlier years could be considered as
adding strength to the argument. Some
of these previous years were record
years while others were not. So, if our
production of pig iron doubles in the
n n
more than it has done in previous de-
cades. This would require an average
increase each year over the previous
year of 7.2 per cent, which would put
the 1903 production at 100000. This
is just about what would be expected
from consideration Of furnaces re-
Gently built and being built, and it
shows that the iron trade is merely
going ahead at the pace set in the last
thirty years.-Herald.