The farmer and mechanic. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 18??-19??, 1903-10-06
Talking About Cotton.

The firm 81 J. NJ. Aver & Company
cotton brokers. IS composed 81 forin1
citizens az Raleigh. who have succeeded
finely in the metropolis Their cotton
letter. dated October 1T. MI interest 4ll
who 1--we in the cotton belt. II i - TO-
lows.
with the sensational close OF the Ser
tember option which, with the summe
option, have for several months been sub
jected 10 the most disturbing and de-
moralzing manipulation known IN the his
tory Of cotton. there Is hope. and i may
be expected that tile market will bcsllt
10 be Influenced by normal and logical
conditions.
Interest now centres in the bureau re
port for October, which Will BE- read az
1918 on the morning of the Bird. Tn
doubtedly. it VIII show a decline from the
September status, which was given rs ST..
Whatever it may be, II cannot be accepted
as a safe basis for estimating the yield Of
1904, for the crop VIII yet be subject TO
weather Incidents, etc.
We have heretofore pointed out that
the high prices for the past season result
ed in an abnormally clean harvesting OF
all fields. including what has heretofore
been rejected as worthless. Unless II can.
be expected that such harvesting viii &c
tuI III SUCCEEDING gtbIS, liIC O4iANtil 1o'4H1
OF the past season cannot serve as a safe
basis for future estimates.
THE commercial crop for 1902-03 was
10, roo, 600. Or October 3rd, 1902. the con-
dition was given as 53.3. Taking tins a
q basis to begin with. and assuming that
conditions for development and harvesting
viii be equal to those of last season. and
taking into consideration the indicated
increase IN acreage, etc, a conclusion can
be reached as TO what the yield Of 1904
may be with a given status on October So.
"A condition OF 70 Will Indicate a pro-
duction OF u, 626, 000.
"A condition Of 20 viii Indicate 4 pro-
duction of y, 1905, 600.
"A condition of 68 will Indicate a pro
duction of -, 091, 900.
"A condition of 90 Will indicate a pro-
duction Of Il. 770,0 900.
A condition of 81 Will indicate a pro-
duction of 11,449, 600.
"A condition of so Will indicate a pro-
duction Of 1926 600.
"A condition OF So Will indicate a pro
| ductiOn of II, 021. 600.
The consumption Of American cotton
during the past season was 1856, 900
bales, which is a less amount than was
taken by the mills for the preceding year
''Although there has been much sand
Z ABOUT TIE SlluliIiS QOWu Ol lllllS, Iutl-
ming on shorter time, etc, during 1908,
there is no positive evidence Of d scarcity
Of cotton goods, and such goods are not
now selling at par with the present price
of cotton. It therefore seems that an es-
timated consumption OF IL 600, 600 bales
for 1904 IS liberal. Taking this with tao
/. probabilities of production indicated
above, it is logical to conclude that pros
poets do not point to an acute scarcity
Of cotton for the coming year.
1t is reported from certain quarters
that some mills and manufacturers are
finding it difficult to negotiate loans On
future production for the immediate pur-
chase OF cotton. This is true to some
extent, and means that such mills must
pursue a hand to mouth policy. and this
III turn means q decrease in immediate
buying power. The financial situation is
not easy, and distrust as to the value OF
securities is, for the time, rampant.
These are the facts, conditions and IN
dications as we see them at this writing,
and our opinion based thereon is that the
tendency of the market Will be to seek
a lower level
The Houston Post predicts for Texas
and the Indian Territory this year a crop
Of $500, 900 bales. The largest crop ever
grown there was 3,555, 600 bales. Three
million bales is the average crop. and
some weeks ago it was confidently ex-
pected that the Texas crop this year would
be 5000, 900 bales. The bad season and
the havoc Of the boil weevil have cut tho
crop off at least half a million bales. The
prevailing opinion is that the crop viii
be short while the mills must have 1000
coo and more bales TO keep going.