The sun., 1903-02-18
WAY OPEN FOR WAR OR PEACE.
GRAVE COMPLICATIONS IN TIE
BALKAN SITUATION.
Russia snd Austria Fail 20 Agree on Joint
P1an n Sultan Refuses Demands for
Reforms In Maocdonia-The Turk he.
iicved to He Ready for the struggle.

icved to He Ready for the struggle.
Special CaAs Dsspaies TO TEE SUN.
LONDON. Feu. MISUNDERSTANDING the
pessimistic tone Of the Kings speech as
regards the Balkan situation. 1t must not
| yet be said that war is inevitable. Certain
grave complications have arisen which add
to the interest OF the crisis and make the
outcome moro doubtful than ever.
THE Sun correspondent is indebted to q
diplomatist Of the highest rank for knowl-
edge Of these developments. which were
disclosed as far as p-opr.e.y permitted.
Following is brief summary:
1t was Russia's desire TO impose radical
reforms in the govern inent OF Macedonia
upon the Sultan. A partial understanding
concerning joint action was reached be-
tween Russia and Austria Hungary, ex-
tending also to certain eventualitics in case
Turkey resisted their demands. This UNDER
standing was entirely verbal, and recently
difficulties have arisen regarding 1t.
These difficulties we're 20 serious that
they necessitated the substantial modif-
cation Of the original programme. The
Sultan's acceptance OF the proposed 70
forms was more than doubtful; In fact
it was necessary to arrange future policy
based upon the assumption that the Porte
would refuse the demands of the Powers
and resist their enforcement. 1t was in
this that Russia and Austria Hungary
failed to reach full agreement.
Another unex pected difficulty arose with
the King of Roumania, whom the late Car
once described as his only friend in Europe.
He refused to consent to the passage OF
Russian troops through his country in
certain eventualities and intimated his in
tention to oppose their progress to the
extent Of his ability II the programme was
attempted This induced Russia TO change
her military plans 30 At to provide for at
tack from the south in case she decided
upon Intervention.
These combined complications have led
10 the preparation of a list Of reforms
Of SO mild character that they cannot
be expected 10 check the insurrectionary
plans in Macedonia even II they are ac-
ceptcd by the Sultan.
The attitude Of the latter is described
as being extremely recalcitrsnt. II ia
doubtful if he will recognize interference
Of any nature. II il represented 10 be
his belief that a crisis in his European
possessions has now arrived. and that he
feels himself better able to undertake the
inevitable struggle now than at any future
time.
The Turk has no money but has plenty
Of good fighting material, He Is able TO
feed his troops, and does not need to pay
them. He il amply able to suppress any
insurrection In Macedonia and even TO con-
troll Bulgaria II the great Powers do not
interfere.
II remains to be seen how the failure to
effect full agreement with Austria Hum
gary and the hostile attitude Of RoumAnia
will affect Russia's plans. The natural in
ference Is that 1t will have a deterrent in
fuence. but after all 1t Is by no means i'm
possible that the Turk will force crisis.
Meantime the situation engrosses the atten-
tion of European diplomacy. At no time
since 1873 has the issue OF peace or war
hung so evenly in the balance. H. X. c.