The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1903-09-18
WORLD SHORTAGE
OF WHEAT IN Sight
Continued From First Page.

has been very pronounced falling on
IN the worlds production of bread-mak-
ing cereals. Not alone in the North
west has there been bad weather and
consequent decrease in production, but
the whole worlds crop has been very
much smaller than during previous
years. 1t has also been much below
the commonly accepted estimates of
this years production
This sounds like the talk of an
alarmiSt, l know, but l am driven to
these conclusions by the logic of the
Facts, which l have spent considerable
Tune and money to collect and confirm.
l do not pretend to be a prophet, and
the Coe Commission company has no
prophet on its pay roll. You can take
the facts and put them together as
you please, but 1 can see only one con-
clusion-that is, that the world is go
ing to be short of wheat for the next
year.
Small Stocks of Wheat.
How do l figure it? If you are in
terested I'll give you a line on what
my investigations indicate. We. start
at the Liverpool and London markets.
That is the center of the wheat trade
of the world You have noticed the
English politician have been discuss
ing the danger of a bread famine in
case of war The whole worlds sur
Plus wheat gravitates toward Liver
/ pool just as water runs down hill, and
When the worlds production is smaller
ene price Keeps going up until supply
ana demand strike an equilibrium
On Sept. 1 last the stocks of wheat
In port and af1oat, together with the
new crop raised by the English and
irish farmers, was smaller than at anv
other time during years. For five years
the farmers of Great Britain have
raised less and less wheat. Last year
tne crop was damaged by rains. This
year the production is less, but the
rains there, as in the grain fields of the
NORTHWEST, have damaged the quality.
Great Britain produced only about
45,0O0,00O bushels this year and the
requirements are over 0.000, 900 BUSH
els. In other words, the rest of the
world Will be called upon for over 15O.-
000,00 bushels.
Ihat is your starting point.
Less to Export.
The great wheat exporting coun-
tries, India and Australia excepted. will
nave less to export than last year. Rus
STA is the greatest factor, producing a
great crop on its broad steppes and
wide valleys. But Russia is impossible
to cover accurately by estimate. The
|
the Russian minister of finance, pub
llshed last week, which shows that the
| total production of cereals, including
wheat, rye, oats and barley. was 461,-
| 100000 bushels less than last year. In
| other words, Russia had a decreased
production Of 20 per cent The wheat
crop is estimated at 0.0OO 900 bush
els. which is 36,000,000 bushels more
than last year. While this seems to
look well, it is more than overcome by
the shortage in other grains. The &c.
100000 bushels OF wheat will fall far
+ short of making good the deficit of
461 100000 bushels in all grains The
latest reports from Russia read Just
like the descriptions of our own North
western grain fields-water soaked and
! ruined in many places and injured as to
quality in great areas.
Both North Germany and South
| Germany. and Austria have suffered
from wet weather, although the exports
| from Roumania indicate a good crop.
But even here the possibility of a war
! in the Orient indicates the tendency of
| higher prices.
| In France the unofficial estimates
of the wheat crop of this year are 300,-
! 900 to 320, 100000 bushels which is
less than the government estimate OF
| from 100000 to $4,000, 600 bushels
being made later than the government
| reports. The rains did great damage
| in reducing the quality and some de-
! struction to crops. AS France imported
! 20,000,0 900 bushels last year, in the pres
! ent crop year it will without doubt be a
| large importer to make up for the in
| creaSing shortage this year
Fifty Million Bushels.
when we come to this side of the
ocean we have new wheat sections OF
! Manitoba and Northwest territory
Last years crop was 64,000,000 bushels
this year the crop will probably be so,
| 10000 bushels, and with the wet
weather and early SHOWS they are hav-
| ing in this section. the production and
! quality will both be cut down consid-
erably. No way 1t can be figured will
! Canada be able to export within less
than 100000 or 100000 bushels OF
| that sent out last year.
This leaves the United States, Ar
| gentina, India and Australia to con-
slider. The crop of Australia, though
estimated at 50,O00,0O0 to 60,000,000 is
| still far from assured, as they harvest
! in January. India, which harvests in
April. will be able to export some 49,
| 100000 bushels, which is large
/ amount for India, but not much when
| the European shortage is considered
| Argentina has had several good crops
| and ii is the great standby of the bears
| in depressing prices, as the wheat har-
| vest is in January. Admitting that 1t
will have a fair crop OF excellent yield,
100,000000 bushels may be exported, of
which a considerable and increasing