The sun., 1903-01-05
\ POOR YEAR IN
"A TIE COFFEE TRADE.
Huge Cop Sold at Prices Below
the Average Production
Underestimated.

q very acute interest IN COHee AiNy
were especially interested a few months
ago. when q number Of Central and South
American coffee growers met In convention
in New York to discuss ways and means
for raising the price Of coffee. The United
Sta ties is the greatest co6ee-consuming
country in the world and. therefore, We are
all more or less interested in the general
condition Of the coffee trade.
1t has been said that Herman Sielcken
Of the firm Of W. X. Crossman Bro. "
the greatest expert In this country on coffee
When the American Sugar Refining Com
pany wanted to secure the best man In
this or any other land to manage its new
coffee business they secured Mr.. 81 lcken's
services, and he has been the company's
coffee manager ever since. Herewith The
Sun gives Mr.. Sielcken's review OF the
coffee trade and it's prospect. He said:
THE year ia0a has been very unsatis-
factory to the dealers in coffee. On Dec. 81.
1901. the January option was o. 30 bid and
the December option Of 1909 was $3.50 The
December just closed shows a decline
against the bid price Of a year ago OF $40
points, which Is about $3.50 on each bag OF
coffee The spot month is $40 points lower,
which, with carrying charges added. will
show for the year decline Of - per bag
while these losses have occurred In
the United States and in Europe, the entire
benefit has accrued to Brazil. The low
prices prevented actual short sales, the
sellers being the importers who paid Brazil
| q price in proportion to the one at which
they sold.
.The only reason for the decline has been
the unexpected large out-turn OF the second
half Of the l9Ol-02 crop and the large re-
| ceipts Of the present crop. entirely con-
trary to the predictions made from Brazil.
The Brazilians are not 30 much to blame
| for the biased and Incorrect estimates as
dealers and spectators in consuming
countries were for believing them, con-
sidering the experience in this line during
| the last six years.
.To what extent the community OF in
terest between the holders Of coffee in con-
suming markets and the producers in pro-
| ducing countries exists. is best shown
| by the International Coffee Conference,
| held last fall In New York. at which repre-
| sentatives from the different coffee growng
countries advanced propositions TO rais'
| the price. Suppose the cotton growers
1 in the South should ask for a conference
| in Manchester OF all the European countries
| interested in cotton in order to raise the
| price Of cotton. The proposition is identi-
| cally the same. New York is the largest
| consuming market for coffee, just the same
| as Manchester is the largest consuming
| market for cotton.
.Snce 1893 the pr'cc has sonc down
| steadily. with an occasional react ION. based.
| In every inst tance, on Z. lse crop news. The
| low prices ruling in late -'aars have induced
a new speculation OF formidable nature.
But neither capital nor future crop alarms
| can keep UP the p ice when the enormou,
| production Is rolling up supplies TO an cx-
| tent that nearly enough stocks are now In
| sight for one years average consumption.
| The abolition Of slavery in Brazil In 1888
| has had the same effect upon the Increase
| In production as did the abolition Of slavery
in the United States on cotton.
The crops in Rio and Santos from 1891 10
1895 averaged 5000 900 bags; from lssa
to 1901. about s.sOo, 900; from 1901 TO 1909.
| about IS. 500 900. The minimum prospect
| for the 10000 crop Ia IA, 900 900 bags, with
| the possibility Of reaching even 10000. 900
| or more.
The only remedy is a price which would
| curtail the production. but that price has
not yet been reached. as the Brazilians.
while making a poor mouth and COM
planning about the hardship of low prices,
are constantly increasing their crops,
as is shown above.
1T IL not generally kno wn that the Bra
zilians have not only been raising large
crops, but they have been raising a high
| quality OF coffee as we'll, and while GER
| tain quality il dealt in as a basis on the
| Coffee Exchange, the quality that Is de-
| livered on contracts costs about two
cents more 40 that the Braxilians receive
| over 20 per cent. more than the option
| basis In New York, would show.
"A large proportion Of the intelligent
| Brazilians are aiming to teach the farmers
to raise their crop. at as low an expense as
| possible and to increase the production
| SO as completely TO outdo all other pro-
| ducing countries, even II this should involve
| still lower prices for some time. II this
| Is carried out and we continue to have
large crops, then the outlook is not favor
| able to the large holders Of to-day, who.
In Europe, and this country a. well, have
suffered enormous losses In the last six
years.
The United States, as a whole, IL natu-
rally the gamer by the low prices. Figur-
| ing on a consumption Of 5000 900 bags a
year and the difference between the present
value and the prices ruling from 1891 to
| 1895, the country Is saving from SOL 900 ,o0o
to so, 900 900 a year from the low prices
| Of coffee.
The amount OF coffee raised in Java for
| importation to this country has shrunk to
such small proportions that not even per
cent. OF the total imported here is genuine
| Java. OF the Mocha, there is no doubt
] that large quantity comes from Brazil,
| where the NJ ,cha tree has been trans
planted, and the consumer cannot detect
| the difference in the taste Of the Mocha as
grown in Arabia and the Mocha as grown
| in Brazil.
1T is certain that not more than per
cent. OF the coffee sold as Mocha and Java
| has ever seen Arabia and Java, and II the
| public desires to he deceived and buys
coffee simply by the description OF Java and
Mocha. paying an exorbitant price for 1t
| the fault lies at its own door
| while the country at large gains by the
reduction in the price paid to foreign
country, the trade itself has learned by
| necessity To be very careful With the