The daily morning journal and courier. [volume] (New Haven, Conn.) 1894-1907, 1902-12-15
AMERICAN BUSINESS.
Mr.. Vanderlip's Gloomy Forecast Crit

Mr.. Vanderlip's Gloomy Forecast Crit
icised by Another Expert
Mr.. Richard Fl. Edmunds, editor of
the Manufacturers Record of Balti-
more, in an interview this morning,
took issue with the somewhat pessimis-
| tic views recently expressed by the eX
Assistant Secretary of the Treasury,
| Mr. Vanderlip, now president of
the City National Bank of New York,
| and of some of the speakers at the
| bankers convention. In discussing the
business outlook Mr.. Edmunds said
| 1T seems to me that Mr.. Vanderlip
| and other bankers who have lately been
| uttering warnings of possible financial
trouble by reason of too much activity
| in business have overlooked some i'm
portant facts. They have based their
warnings on transportation, but over
| speculation is possibly not as great a
! factor in comparison with our business
| interests as is generally claimed. The
real business interests of the country,
the producing power Of our farmers
and our manufacturers, are so much
vaster than the speculative operations
of Wall street-using Wall street as
term to indicate the stock-speculative
element of the whole country-that the
banker in the money center is some
times prone to take a narrow view of
the expanding trade of the United
States and of the real basis of our bus
mess activity. Really, the Wall street
man knows comparatively little about
the true progress of the whole country,
and therefore he judges things only as
he sees them from the eastern point of
view
I'VE are told that our exports have
declined and our imports increased and
that this is a dangerous symptom; we
are told that, instead Of heavy exports
of steel and iron of three years ago, we
are now importing steel and iron, and
that this indicates the elimination of
our great prosperity in these interests.
I 1t is difficult to understand how men of
such supposed business acumen can for
moment express such views. Three
to five years ago our iron interests
were still, by reason of the disastrous
conditions brought about by fre-silver
agitation, so depressed in price that our
manufacturers were forced, in self-prO-
| lection, to push our pig iron and steel
| rails into foreign markets. The home
demand was then so much less than
the production that we exported about
a million tons year, but this was sold
at very small profit, If we sold one
hundred million dollars worth of such
merchandise at little or no profit it
would be absurd to say that the bring
ing of this one hundred million dollars
to our country added that much to our
wealth, and yet that is the logical po-
sition of many of the views expressed
on the subject.
eat present the demand for iron and
steel is so great that it is impossible
for our makers to supply it, and we are
compelled to purchase abroad at the
rate of probably a million tons this
year; but that is not a sign Of bad
times; it simply shows that We are en-
joying such a degree of prosperity OF
consuming power, that, though our fur
naces and rail mills and locomotive
works are crowded to their utmost ca
pacity, it is impossible for them to
meet the consumptive demand. We are
now making pig iron at the rate of f1f-
ty thousand tons a day, or eighteen
million tons q year, and instead of haV-
ing in stock from five hundred thou
sand to one million tons of unsold iron,
as we have usually carried, the entire
stock in the United States is only
about fifty thousand tons, or scarcely
one days consumption. But for the
fact that foreign countries have been
able to add to our own production by
heavy exports to us during the last
few months many foundries and ma
chine shops would have been forced to
close for weeks or months for lack of
material. Never before in our history
has such a condition prevailed.
1.-THE steel-rail mills are so over-sold
that it is almost impossible to buy
rails for delivery within the next ten
months, and a number of orders have
been placed in Europe because of the
inability to buy at home.
"F'rom Maine to Texas, from the
Gulf to the Pacific, without a single
exception, the story comes of the pros
perity of farmers, of manufacturers
and Of merchants. The bankers at this
convention, so far as l have been able
to learn, without exception, are enthu-
siastic in their statements Of the phe
nomenal real prosperity of every sec
ton and of every class of people
I'VE are told that this era of high
prices will be disastrous. 1t is true
that natural conditions, and not spec
ulation, nor even trusts, have brought