The Montgomery advertiser., 1902-05-10
THE COTTON SITUATION
AN ANALYsxs pY COL. ALFRED
 B. sHEPPERsoN.
Increase in Asrs4ge at Expense of Food and Forage Crops May Prove Unfortunate to
 the South.

 Col. Alfred B. Shepperson of New York says: -
 According to tho New York Cotton Ex- change, 9,122,0o0 bales of the American cotton crop, had come into sight up to
 May ed. As the figures of cotton brought
 into sight embraced the excess of stock
 in twenty-eight important interior towns
 over their stock on August 31st, and as
 the Commercial crop figures take no ac-
 count whatever of the interior town
 stock. better ide1 of the probable extent of the commercial crop will be obtained by consideration of the present figures
 of the commercial crop.
 According to recently published
 statement Of the New Orleans Cotton Ex- change, the movement of the commercial crop to April 3oth for this season and for last season was as follows: '+ 1902 1901. Fort receipts ...............I ,20s,Uo 6SS4'o1o Overland shipments .:.... 995.0o0 913,o0o Taken by Southern mills. I, ,2so.oOo 1,ll7.ooo Total commercial crop
 to April 30 sS3, 900 S924, 900 "'The excess over last season is 5S9. 900
 bales. and if the movement hereafter
 should be the same as last season, the
 crop would be 10.942 600 bales. It is evi-
 dent. however, that the movement for the
 remainder of the season will be cons!d-
 erably less than last year. Just how
 much less it will be is the insolvable
 problem. because 1t involves the question
 of the quantity now held on the farms
 and what proportion of 1t will be disposed
 of 50 as to be included in the commercial
 crop. The stock in the twenty-eight lead
 ing interior towns on May 2nd was 264, GOO
 bales. and it is safe to assume that PA, 900
 bales of 1t will be shipped to the ports
 or overland by August 3lst. The Southern mills will doubtless take
 during the entire season 1,s50,000 bales. and as only i,360,0o0 bales have been in- cluded in the New Orleans Exchanges s estimate to April 3oth. about 75o.0oO bales more will have to be added during the re- mainder of the reason for this, Item. The 'planta ton movement or receipts from plantations and interior towns other than the twenty-eight regular towns. from May 3rd to August 31st. last season. amounted to 45G000 bales. Should the movement from the farms and 'uncounted towns for the remainder of the season be ony half as much as last year. it would
 amount to 225. 900 bales. Adding these 225.-
 600 bales and 224,oo0 bales of the present stock in the twenty eight interior towns. and the 570.ooO bales additional for the takings of the Southern mills to the 2. 4S3.- 600 bales of the commercial crop to April 30th, would make q total commercial crop
 for the season of 1o5o3. 900 bales
 Tt must not be supposed that l think the Southern mills will receive 570.000
 bales between May 1st and August S1st. But I am convinced that their entire talk ings from the crop during the season will
 be fully 1850, 900 bales and as the New Or
 leans Exchange has evidently undercsti-
 mated their takings to April 3oth tespe-
 cially in the first five months of the sea-
 son) it must hereafter add enough to
 make up the deficiency.
 Though the exports of American cot ton to Europe to May End arc 29l 900 bales in excess of the corresponding date last season, the consumption of cotton by the European mills is stated by my friend, Mir Thomas Ellison of Liverpool to be only. little more than last season.
 ITO May 2nd the Northern mills and Canada had taken 195,00O bales more of American and 55.00O bales moro of Egyptian cotton than to corresponding time last season. Information from most reliable sources confirms my belief that the increased consumption is far less than the increased takings of cotton by these mills and that their stocks of cot ton arc considerably larger than a year ago. While it Is true that some few mills are poorly stocked it may bc said that this Is always the case and the in stances are not more frequent now than usual.
 There can be no question that ths mills of Europe, America, India and Japar are fairly well stocked with cotton and | that while the trade for goods and yarns | is better in this country than abroad, it is not really booming with activity and pros perity anywhere.
 Business is better than last year but | last season was one of great discourage ment to cotton manufacturers all over | the world
 ''The new cotton crop Is having goot start It Is a little backward in some
 sections. but is early in others. The weather for the past two weeks has beer exceedingly favorable in most sections oi | the cotton belt and the crop is making good progress. It Is too soon to form positive opinions respecting acreage as | the reports are somewhat conflicting. The price of cotton during the season, foI preparation of land and for planting has much influence on the extent of the aver age and it is certain that the recently ruling prices for spot cotton and for | futures for the new crop have been q strong inducement to farmers to plant all the cotton they can.
 There has been much talk of an in- creased acreage in gram Tn some Sections | of the South and a corresponding reduc- tion in the acreage in cotton, but these statements should be taken with many l grains of allowance when it Is remem- bered that a large acreage was given to corn in the cotton States last year and | had the crop not been 8 failure there. as all over the country, the South would have had an ample supply. Failures oi the corn crop do not usually occur two years in succession. And the same acreage in corn as last year in the South
 would doubtless produce sufficient foI all requirements. There is always a ready market for cotton in every towr 1 in the South. but there is no market there | for surplus corn. except when the cror | is generally failure. At present prices | for cotton 1t would seem fairly safe proposition for the average Southern l farmer to plant all the cotton he can cui' tivate properly and only sufficient grair | for his actual requirements. As the Southern farmer is not lacking in com mon sense it may be quite safely as stunned that he will pursue about th' course I have indicated.
 My present advices indicate an acre | age in cotton equal to last season with { | proba bility of some increase. An in crease in cotton acreage at the expense of food and forage crops sufficient fol home requirements might prove most un | fortunate for the South. Had the condi | tions been favorable, the yield of cotton | on the acreage of the present crop woul'
 have been more than ample for the re