The Montgomery advertiser., 1902-01-15
The Cotton Situation.

New Orleans Picayune.
 Although we are now well in the fifth month or the current cotton season, and as much as seven million bales or the crop have come into sight there still exists almost as mucn uncertainty as to | the actual yield as was the case two months ago 1t is true that the esti- mates from 1O.750.00O to l.2oO.0O0 bales, which found considerable favor at an
 earlier date. have no adhcrcnts noH worth mentioning. but there is still full million bales between the low and high estimates that are still regarded with favor. A man who believed in l0.50O, U0l bales would have been considered a bull some time back. whereas that Is now the favorite figure with the bears.
 IfD to Friday there mad come into sight 7,0SS,99l bales of cotton, which IS 20OOO0 bales in round figures more than had been marketed up to the same date last season. Should receipts from now on to the end of the season be prac- tically the same as last year, the crop would be in the neighborhood of lo,6OO, : 900 bales. Unfortunately for students Of Statistics there are no means of Knowing what receipts will be during the balance of the season. The percentage of the crop marketed up to any given date about this period of the season has va ried widely in different years. Thus. for instance. the per cent. marketed up to January l has ranged all the way from leaves so wide a margin of possibility that the movement from now on Is as much in doubt as 1t has been at any earlier period of the season.
 With the movement 50 uncertain "a guide, operators in cotton must rely on the reports from the country. These re- ports, if carefully digested. ought to afford some basis for an opinion, but no ble. The cotton belt is very large ex- panse of territory; and, while reports from those sections where the crop has been disappearing may be abundant, there may be little information to be had from districts where crops have been good. It is. therefore, not surprising that there should be differences Of opln- ion as to the outturn Of the crop the character Of trade and the future of
 The bulls, or those who believe that prices will advance, contend that the present heavy movement IS que 10 aD- tcrially in the very near future. They point out that, despite the fact that the movement Is large, visible stocks in- crease out slowly, while American stocks are no larger than a year ago, thus .h1wing that trade Is not as sluggish as has been reported. The bears on their part contend that the movement is a good indication of the size of the crop and that there Is more cotton to come forward for the rest of the season than was the case last year
 In this contention over the movement one very important fact seems to be lost sight of, namely, the fact that With reviving trade a crop even as large as 10. 800 900 bales ought to be easily disposed of at prices as high as any. that have prevailed so far this season. On the poor trade theory spinners have long followed a hand to mouth policy. hence 1t is not unreasonable to suppose that as soon as the demand becomes brisk in the cotton goods trade there will be a scramble to secure adequate stocks. Good trade is a better stimuant to prices than a short crop, although spectators will cling to the short crop idea as the most promis- ing influence.