The Lafayette gazette., 1902-03-29

New Orleans Picayune.
Although the present cotton season has
not developed speculation on as extensive
scale as has been experienced in some past
seasons, few years have developed a more
protracted and bitter struggle between the
opposing interests. The consumers and
| their allies, the bears, have persistently clung
| to large-crop estimates, reports of unsatis-
| factory trade and the like; while the bulls
have as persistently put their faith in short
crop figures. Only one point have both
interests in the market appeared to agree,
and that has been in the matter of consump.
ton. The bears predicted a small consump.
ton, and the bulls, for the greater part of
the season, took the moderate consumption
idea tor granted and pinned their faith prin-
cipally to a short crop.
As not infrequently occurs in such cases,
the unexpected has happened. If the move
ment to date. means anything, it proves that
the crop, if not as large as the bears ex-
pected, is larger than the bulls counted On.
On the other hand, what one expected
trade has been sufficiently good 10 absorb
very large amount of cotton, and although
spinners' takings greatly exceed those of
last year, and exports have been on a much
heavier scale, the demand is such that il
now seems certain that all available cotton
Will he wanted, whether the crop turns out
to be 10, oo,oooEsles or more.
The evidences of good u,a>'e, and the
large consumption are the real elements of
strength in the cotton market, and conserva
tive operators have lost interest in the crop
question, feeling confident that there will
De an active market for the balance of the
;rOp, net it what it may.
OF course, there radical people who
ling to the very low estimates, we'll
here are others who still talk of the very E
'ig-crop estimates of the early part of the
eason; but the great mass of people in the
:o:ton trade have schooled themselves to
ook for a crop equally as large, and prob
lbly little larger, than that of last year.
The developments of the season, however,
lave emphasized the belief, which has been
rowing among conservative people for
ong time, that all crop estimates are worth
ess, except as individual guesses, which
ntitled to no more weight than should
ach to the individual opinion of a successful
uesser.
Whether crop-guessing does harm good
an open question:, but it would be fruit
ess to attempt to check the tendency it
'ould to check speculation itself. If people
re foolish enough to pin implicit faith to
his or that ''authority,' that is their affair.
he government alone makes a really
erious attempt to collect actual data
'rge scale; but it yet remains to be proved
lat the government has been much more
after the elaborate use of
lie machinery at its control, than the pri-
ate ''authority'' who CLEANS his informa-
on from the windows of railway carriage.
he government, however, has taken the
My possible method of ascertainng the
lcts, and for that reason its conclusions
e entitled to respect, even though they
ss the mark at times. If absolute ac-
,racy ever be secured, which is very
oubtfu, the government is certainly in
etter position to achieve success than any
-ivate individual, however able.