The Minneapolis journal. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn.) 1888-1939, 1902-09-17

MINNEAPOLIS AJOURN
publican; the LoWeH-Lawrence, probably
democratic. and the worcester district
probably republican. II RE ballots foil in
somewhat normal way RESPECTED here
that the districts 70. .essnued by Conry
Nephen. and Knox will NeAdemocratic and
all the rest republican. john r. Thayer's
feat although twice performed, Is so ex-
traordinary as to be contrary to proba-
bllity always But at most. within rea-
son, the democrats can hardly look for
more than one or two Of tho thirty new
districts that they need from the six New
England states. ~, a<E~ss,.ee,
Pennsylvania some months ago threat
ened an o1erturn which might cost the
republicans six or eight districts To-,
day opposition conditions there are so
disturbed that it is perhaps a fair estt.5
mate that the republican loss, under the
new apport1onment,E will be about two
seats and that due to the coal strike.
New Jersey may give the democrats a
seat or two; Delaware is quite likely to
elect a democrat. Maryland, rs a maxi
mum, may give the democrats two dis
tricts and West Virginia about one. A
gain OF two seats for the democrats Is
normally due in Ohio They may gain IL
seat In each of the states Of Minnesota,
Wisconsin and Michigan, and perhaps in
California. It is yet too early to go into
details as to the fight by districts, for as
q rule these contests. have not yet shaped
themselves. But many of the states
named have solid republican delegations
row; there is always, no matter how
skilfully the divisions may be made, in
such states, a district that IS closer than
any other. The opposition tide may run
hicr17 to ',qf f1o4-
closest district or two in each Of four or
| But suppose all these democratic gains
| are made, and these are all that anybody
can think of within reason, they fall short
| of the thirty seats necessary, or even the
| twenty-fve seats assuming that there
were to be no republican gains anywhere.
The probabilities are rather that the re-:
publicans will not lose half the districts
| suggested. It is thus a matter of easy
demonstration that it is going to take a
heavy charge Of gunpowder to blow the
republicans out of the house. Those who
think that the issues which have devel-
! oped in the last two years constitute such
\ an explosive may well expect to see a
4 democratic house; none others should In
anything like a normal vote the country
will so republican - g tt..c'''*
I Tt should always be borne in mind that hit
/ close Or doubtful districts Of the country
IOIIn tA%IeldIlVSly small percentage OIL lnee
i whole. The decade which is now closing
| has seen the most extra ordinary wane in
the political seers of this generation or
4 perhaps indeed since the rise Of the party
\ system. The contrast between the demo-
4 cratic vote of 1892 and republican tidal
: wave of 1894 will long be, remembered
| Crisp had a majority behind him of 1O7,
! counting populists, I'M the first congress of
the Cleveland administration, while Reed
had a republican majority in the second
congress Of the -sames term. Of 133 And
yet, in spite Of these; sensational changes,
of the 357 districts under the apportion:
ment which is now passing away, 10 have
! by, anybody but democrats and 100 never
represented by anybody but republicans.
Doubtless one third of the present 1856 dis
tricts might with. safety, order seats re-
| served for them on the democratic side Of
| the house for the entire decade and an
other three-eighths fill a4similar order for
republican reservations. The EXTREMIST
movements of the tide do not thus affect
| more than 26 per cent Of the house. .
In any computation Of the November
probabilities due allowance should be made
| for all the off-year if1uences. There is q
great disposition on the part Of the voters
| to play tricks on off years. 1t is common
have forfeited favor Gin some way by an
off year defeat on the theory that it will
| not make much difference with congress
! sional iresults. Then the minority party
! habitually gets out to- the polls better than
the self-satisfed majority Four years ago
| these and other influences would have
given the house to the democrats but for
the west, where a, reNiYab Of repuPlicanism
was most marked ana offset BY republican
losses in the east. : This time there will
probably be still further sinroads on the
old populistice: territory; in fact nearly
cleaning otrsWIlat remains Of that opposi-
! tion but no republican, detection in the
east corresponding to that Of four years
ago need be expected on account of the
art and mystery of a tier of republican
| legislatures throughout the north. s
| Should the republicans carry the house,
| as seems probable, for the reasons given,
they will have had control of that body
uninterruptedly for a period Of ten years:
| During civil war epoch, and the years i'm
mediately following when a third of the
union either from secession or carpetbag
government, was not really doing business
at the old @stand,~ the republicans We're I'M
| control for, sixteen years, or from the cleo
ton of William Pennington Of New Jer-
T sey in: 1859 to the speakership until the
! return of democratic .ascendency in 1875.
The democrats haye held the house for
six years twice since that time, and once
| for four years, these. three periods being
| broken in each instance by a two years
| Of republican control. The present period
of the republican ascendency is thus add
ing an interesting chapter to congressional
/ annals. %''f
i If the republicans elect the house In No
| vember,. it would Virtually mean four years
4 more, since they have never carried the
4 house in an OM-year election and lost the
I house and the presidency at the following
! election at any time in their entire party
| history. r .:' t*-I'% ID : -. '~!-i- !:
I -5. - g.. 90. 81 x,s>--7W- w. Jermane. !
!, Halrrprer's Ferry; the Gate to the shen-:
i 49,. ~. :, .y.y 8. .andoah,rNaIlev - fss s