Evening star., 1902-08-22
SOME APPREHENSION
Republican Leaders Fear for
the Next House.
THIS Is AN OFF YEAR
DEMOCRATS USUALLY POLL 80
PER CENT OF THEIR VOTE.
While the Dominant Party Gets Out
but 70 Per Cent-An Appeal
to the Faithful.

Special From Staff Correspondent.
NEW YORK, August 22.-For nearly
three weeks now 1 have been talking all
most every day with republican senator's,
representatives and other politicians who
have found this city the relay house for
Oyster Bay or the bourne of their trip to
political headquarters. In every conversa-
tion the subject Of main interest was the
coming congressional campaign. Some ror-
tions of these talks were published; other
parts, necessarily, were confidential
AS result of information impaired and
opinion expressed by people competent to
know the statement can be deliberately
made that republicans from many sections
in touch with the situation fear that unless
the republican voters are aroused Gnd the
full republican strength poled the next
House may go democratic.
At first blush the statement may seem
preposterous to those who take but q su-
perficfal view of the case. Why 1t is
said, 1.-The country never was on a greater
wave of prosperity. The issues are clearly
drawn. The people have already discred-
tied the democratic policy for the Philip
pines, which is the main democratic issue
The republican party will solve the tariff
and trust questions to the satisfaction Of
the people. Why should the people talk
of changing the complexion of the House?"
Danger Exists.
But the politicians who are responsible
for the statement that danger exists to the
republican administration in the lower
branch of Congress say that there are
other elements to be taken into considera-
ton.
The general situation, it is true is good.
But they explain, it is honeycombed with
weak spots, arising from local conditions
unsatisfactory TO the republicans. Here
and there ard yonder are shaky districts,
weakened by local conditions absolutely.
On national issues, with the Philippines,
the army, the tariff or the attitude of the
administration toward the trusts 1t stake
the republicans would have no sear Of the
outcome. With the name OF Mckinley or
Roosevelt at the head of a national ticket
1t would carry the ongressional ticket
along. But in this fight the represe tive
in Congress is the highest office at stake
except in states where the governor and
the legislature are to be elected. In such
states the situation is worse, if anything,
because the local issues affect the congress
sional campaign.
Experience has shown that in "off years"
that is, when there is not a presidential
campaign hand, the democrats poll
about 80 per cent of their normal vote ard
the republicans only about 20 per cent of
theirs. If through Indifference or over
confidence this rule should be permitted to
obtain next November the republicans
would probably be beaten.
In figuring on the coming campaign they
do not use the vote of 1900 as the basis.
That was an abnormal vote. A great wave
of patriotism was sweeping over the coun-
try which lifted on its crest even the most
Indifferent and careless voter name
unmatched for the effect Of personal mag
netism in the latter annals Of the country
was at the head of the national ticket. The
flag was to be upheld, the army sustained;
prosperity then, as now, was appealing 10
men to support the party under which
prosperity had attained It's growth. The
outpouring of voters was tremendous, and
when they put their X mark opposite the
name of Mckinley it usually carried the
same Endorsement for the congressional
candidate.
Conditions Similar to Those in 1898.
In 1898 it had been different. Public
opinion had not crystalized upon the Phil
ippines question. Some scars of the Span
ish campaign were still unhealed. The pub
lie was in a turmoil and local issues were
taken largely into consideration. The con-
sequence was that the vote was divided
and fell along "off-year" lines.
1t Is said by the cautious and conserva-
tive politicians who have come to New
York recently that the republicans cannot
afford to stand the polling of only 20 per
cent of their vote against the democrats 90
per cent. together with the other disabil-
tiles under which the republicans are labor
ing, namely. factional disturbances and
distracting state issues.
These men believe. of course, that all
these obstacles will be overcome; that the
danger which menaces and that in the end,
by strenuous endeavor, the republican vote
will be turned out and polled.
But, as stated at the outset, the feeling
of apprehension Is plainly perceptible, al
though it takes the form of an appeal to
the republicans to arouse from lethargy.
Things look altogether too smooth on the
surface. and the average voter, they say,
is likely to be luled into Indifference
enough of them staying at home to ac-
count for the difference between 20 and 80
per cent.
Appeals to the Faithful
So, pretty soon, there will probably be
clarion blasts from the leaders in the sew
eral states calling upon the faithful to rally
and oppose the wicked democrats, who get
in their work to best advantage in the off
years. The republican nominees are just
beginning to look over their respective
fields. They are weighing the probable in
f1uence of the local and factional troubles
in their states. They are gauging the ex-
tent of the feeling of security and conf
dence in the republican ranks, and 1t is the
first report from these preliminary sound
ings that is now being made.
You can find democrats who will say they
would, for strategic reasons connected with
the presidential campaign, rather lose the
next House than win it. You will not find
republicans who would rather lose the next
House than win 1t.
The democrats who confess a desire to
lose say that if they should win the House
i. would deprive the republican party of re-
sponsibility for control of the trusts and on
national questions generally, and enable the
republicans to go into the presidential cam
paign with alibi.
Inferentially, the same argument might
be supposed to hold good with the repub-
licans 1t might be said that the republi-
cans would gain by shifting responsibility
from their own shoulders. :,
Such is not the case. The republicans to
a man do not want to shift the RESPONSE
bility. They are willing to take 1t. They
say the republican party is the party of
initiative and of action; that it announces
policies and enacts them into laws, stand