The Indianapolis journal. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1867-1904, 1902-12-14
January Disbursements VIII he Very
Large, and a Season of Activity Is
Expected to Follow.
NO PROSPECT OF A QUICK RISE
WHY BANK STATEMENTS DO NOT AL
WAYS REFLECT CONDITIONS.
Important Matters Waiting the Turn
of the Financia Tide-Probable Bull
Campaign i'm United States Steel.

has not yet emerged from its period Of con-
valescence 1t was made awfully sick in con-
sequence Of the terrific liquidation brought
about through the acute necessities of the
syndicates and underwriting combinations,
and the process of restoration to normal
condition is slow. The men at the head of
the great money combines are far-sighted
and patient. Experience has taught them
the danger of trying to get action before
the situation is ripe. They are loaded up
with securities, and are leaning heavily on
the banks and trust companies, but they
are not going to spoil the market and
jeopardize their chances of getting out at
a profit by attempting to force their goods
back upon the public before it is ready to
take hold. They decided a good while ago
to restrict speculation to the smallest pos
sible limits, and to discourage the gam
bling element by every means available
until after the holidays. Meantime the
banks are slowly gathering strength to get
themselves into position to promote activ-
ity at the proper time. Between now and
the first Of January the resources OF the
fiscal powers will be taxed to gather in the
funds required for January disbursements
of dividends and interest, which this time
will aggregate s140.o0O,00o No such sum
has ever been distributed on any previous
first of January. That alone should stimu
late speculative interest, and 1t is being de-
pended on to do that. There is feeling
in Wall street that, beginning with the first
of January, ANOTHER grand bull movement
will be inaugurated. or course, this view
is not unanimous. but the strong people are
evidently encouraging it. 1t is needless to
recapitulate here the factors going to make
a bull campaign. They have been enuner-
ated so often that to give them now would
be an unnecessary repetition.
1t is bad time for stirring news Of a
financial sort. Important developments are
occurring continually of favorable and en-
couraging import, affecting both railroads
and industrials, but insiders do not care
to exploit these matters. because 1t would
be a waste of energy. The prominent in
terests are inflexibly opposed to specula-
tive expansion, and the public has been edu-
Gated to believe that nothing will be lost
by delay in getting back into the market
They have been told that the period Of
convaIescence is not yet over, and 1t would
be rank foolishness for investors to get
in now and stand the burden Of in
terest and carrying charges stocks
when there is no chance for a
quick rise. This teaching Is effectual.
1t is something that appeals to the pocket
book. and is understood by the tape-players.
Consequently, the policy of the street
may be compressed In brief and forcible
sentiment, coined to meet the occasion,
''nothin doin'." There is literally nothing
doing in Wall street these days, and moth
ing expected until the turn of the year.
Occasionally a little bob-tail pool jumps in
and takes a scalp out of the market, but
so unworthy of serious consideration have
these incidents become that they hardly
cause a ripple in the doings on the Stock
Exchange. AS an illustration of r. may
be mentioned that the retirement D. lead
ing member Of that body from active bust
ness few days ago gave the brokers on
the Exchange an excuse for nearly two
hours of farewell to their old friend. Ordi-
narfy he would have gone out the front
door with hardly the ceremony of depart
ing handshake from half a dozen. 1t Is a
waiting season. Everybody is waiting for
the monetary stringency to pass away. and
for sign TO that effect from the repre-
sentatives of the banking combinations.
That sign once given, the machinery will
once again be set in motion, and the public
invited to contribute to the gayety of the
game.
Bank statements, however honestly they
may be compiled, are in many respects mis-
leading these days. They do not reflect
the actual condition as I'm normal times.
They do not represent the true situation
with any degree of accuracy They take
| no account, for instance, of at least two
thirds of the $3.50. 100000 added to the ag-
| gregate stock of money in this country
within the last seven years. Not less than
| S00000,0e0 of the increase has apparently
| disappeared, If we were to judge by the
| exhibits made by the banks AS a matter
| OF fact the larger part of this vanished
| half billion dollars is In the liveliest kind
of circulation. 1t is the pocket reserve
| of millions OF individuals and represents
ana vestpockets of multitude of prosper
Gus men and women. People who, during
| the period of hard times and forceI econ
omies, carried 81 in their pockets now carry
| s.. Those who carried S. to $40 do. not feel
| comfortable unless they have 500. $50 or
| $40. The $50 man now carries $500 to 5000
| People have contracted habits of easy
| go their money freely. but keep their pocket
reserve replenished, and so a vast amount
has apparently been retired from circula-
the business of fiscal institutions is almost
the same as If one hundred Russell Sages
were TO lock up s5.0o0,00e each. The money
is not available for large transactions, and
/ TO that extent bankers complain of string
ency and grumble because the funds do not
come back to the centers as formerly. The
| eiOdoit Stems ~ DC mat TIE people are
actually embarrassing the large business
affairs of the country by their habits OF
personal extravaganza In daily expenditures
and the habit Of carrying in their pockets
| liberal sums To meet these individual out
/ lays. 1t is a curious development of a Ions
| period OF extraordinary prosperity, and has
not been taken into account by the rank
and file of bankers.
i great many important financial matters
| are being held In allegiance partly becausa
| of the state of money and partly because
the stock market public is far from being
In an appreciative mood. 1t is significant
for example, that the autumn bear market
and the money stringency. the one beine
the effect OF the other, have caused very
striking decline in New Jerseys incorpora
/ ton business. Only one large company ha:
| been Incorporated at Trenton these thrt,
| days last past. Many big projects are Al!
| prepared to be incorporated but becaus,
the financial world is not in a receptfy.
| state of mind the Incorporation of then
| Is being put of. Similarly many thing:
! are pending In the stock market bond is
/ sues. new stock issues and the like which
| Will not come out until the monetary sit
| uation clears. There cannot be any bul
| market with time money ranging between
and per cent. and no important matter
Is auspiciously introduced except in q bul
market. The disposition OF the Readin,
| property Is likely TO be announced soof
| after the speculative situation clears OF
the mony market resumes IL.
| normal state. Then there are the Moroa,