Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1902-11-22
MANY DISCREPANCIES
Alleged to Exist in Agricul-
tural Statistics
OF TWELFTH CENSUS
EXPERT COMMITTEE OF NATION
AL BOARD OF TRADE
Raises Contention as Result Of Inves-
tigation-Chief Statistician Nom
sen Makes Statement.


twelfth census gives as farm areas In each
of 1O1 counties more land than 10 comprs-
hended In the whole area Of that county
constitutes the chief feature OF report
made to the National Board OF Trade by q
special committee appointed to investigate
the methods Of the census bureau and the
Department Of Agriculture In preparing
crop statistics.
This alleged error, according to the re-
port, includes not only the large grazing
states, but Ohio, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky,
Missouri, Tennessee and Indiana. In 700
counties, according to the report, the farm
area Is given as more than 80 per cent Of
the total, which is regarded as an excess
OF the maximum proportion of any county
available for agriculture.
In reply to this report the chief officers OF
the statistical division of the census bureau
have given out statements ascribing this
apparent discrepancy to the inaccurate re-
turns made by farmers to the fact that
many farms overlap from one county into
another, and are thus twice reported, and
to various complications incident to the
collation. of such information with I'M
trained enumeratOrs and inadequate faclli-
ties. A fuller statement on this subject
Is now being prepared.
A Committee of Experts.
trade was prompted by the discovery last
spring that the census figures on agricul-
ture were at wide variance with those is
sued from the Agriculture Department. On
the assembling of the board in this city the
committee on crop reports informed the as
sembly officially of this difference.
The matter was then taken under advise
ment by the president of the board and
special committee appointed to investigate
the methods Of the two bureaus.
A Wide Difference In Crop Figures.
The report Is a pamphlet of fifteen large
pages. Much Of it is devoted to state
ments OF the methods employed in the two
divisions concerned-the statistical division
of the census bureau and the division Of
agricultural statistics of the Agricultural
Department.
Preceding this portion Of the document,
however, is "a partial analysis Of state
ments concerning leading crops, as illustra-
tive of differences reached in the crop-re-
porting work of the census Office and by
the Department Of Agriculture" and in
this anlysis it Is contended that the census
figures show acreage devoted to wheat
of 10 per cent more than is reported by the
Agricultural Department, and that the yield
Is 10 per cent greater; that the acreage de-
voted to oats, according to the census, is
II per cent greater than that reported by
the Department of Agriculture and the
yield . per cent greater: that the census
records of grain produced exceed the agri-
cultural records by 20 per cent; and that In
particular states-Kansas, Iowa and ILL.,
nois-the census figures vary from those OF
the state reports by as much as 60 per
cent.
Farm Acreage Exceeds Country Areas.
Along this line the report says:
I'm twenty states, in which there are
1.490 counties. there are 1O1 counties made
to appear as having farm lands equal to or
in excess Of the entire surveyed land sur
face. This number includes few which
by q small fraction of per cent are under
100 in the comparison. but which practi-
caliy represent the entire land surface. The
excuses over an equal extent of area range
up to 40 per cent, the aggregate number OF
acres indicated in the farm returns for
these 1O1 counties being 5 per cent greater
than their entire surface, without allowing
for highways, towns, railroads, etc.
For Ohio 10 per cent Of the number OF
counties are shown to represent 100 per
farm lands: in Iowa, II per cent; Kansas,
II per cent; Missouri. . per cent; Tennes-
see, per cent; Indiana. per cent. etc.
Cannot Be Satisfactorily Estimated.
I'm addition to these 1O1 counties found
by analysis OF census bureau data to reflect
returns Of farm lands equal to or In excess
Of the surveyed land surface of such coun-
ties, there are TOO other counties showing
30 per cent or more, of which 1886 represent
IS per cent or more in such comparison
Thus, over % per cent Of all the z, 800 coun-
ties of the country represent farm areas
reported as ~ per cent or more of the sur
veyed land surface. 80
whether these conditions, rejecting q
large extent of farm acreage in excess OF
what can be accepted as the true position,
are due to overestimates in returns of EMU
n in he
ical operations incident to the methods of
the census office in the tabulating work or
to both of these, with inconsistent worksin
editing the schedules and other causes, can
not be stated by the committee; but they
are evidences of erroneous work the meas
ure of which in influence on results can not
be satisfactorily estimated"
Remedies Suggested.
As a means of preventing the recurrence
of such errors the committee proposes that
Sin all the more important districts the
supervisors should constitute schools for
instruction of enumerators;" that Gin the
editing of schedules greater care should be
had in having the clerk we'll qualified by
fitness and training for such work." that
1.-The verification of cards prepared for the
tabulating machines should be accomplish
ed before instead of after the machine
tabulation," and that 1.-The more important
crop data should be tabulated in duplicate
to prove the accuracy of the work"
I'm view OF the advantages to be expected
from the census bureau being placed on
permanent basis" continues the report.
land of the promise Of shortened period
for presentation of results, the COMMITTEES
favors census report every five years,
especially for agricultural data. which
form basis for calculations and estimates
of area and production by other official
service, governmental and otherwise, as to
the more prominent crops and as to the
numbers of farm animals
Expert Chief Momsen's Statement.
Mr.: Hart Momsen, expert chief of divi-
sion of agriculture in the census bureau,
this afternoon made the following state
ment as to this report to reporter for The
Star:
This apparent variance between the GEN.
sus figures and the areas of the counties
indicated requires detailed explanation
which cannot be made in few words. It
Is due chiefly to error on the part Of the
farm owners and operators and not to In
accuracy In the census bureau