The daily morning journal and courier., 1902-02-12
RUSSIA AND JAPAN

RUSSIA AND JAPAN
 Russias policy towards Japan has ot
 late assumed an emphatlcally con ciliat tory character. There is plain desire on the part of St Petersburg statesmen, acting through their agents in the East and through their news paper organs, to disarm Japanese ap- prehension about Manchuria, and to establish an understanding on practical basis. The main line of the Russian argument is that by the conn pletion of the Transasian railway great increase of commercial intimacy between the two empires must ensue
 and that if the new situation is to be utilized in a mutually profitable man ner an amicable entente is essential
 The Russians, or at any rate the Rus sian peace party, now temporarily par amount do not deny that the fate ot Manchuria has practical concern for Japan But they do deny that Russia has any intention of occupying Man churia permanently. Years must elapse, they allege, before the admins trative expenses of the vast region could be paid out of the proceeds of feasible taxation. and even that dis tant result could not be secured except by large outlay of capital for pur- poses of developement. They make no disaVowal of an aggressive policy, pre- ferring to rest their case solely on fin ancial obstacles. Had events placed England in the position now held by Russia, capital and enterprise to develop Manchuria would be at once available, and the idea of evacu- ation would not be seriously entertained great powers having a natural disinclination to retire from regions where their feet have once been planted But whatever capital and enterprise Russia can furnish are al- ready insufficient for the demands of Siberia and her possessions in Cen tral Asia. so that the addition of an- other vast region would render her bur den intolerable. On the other hand, where she to march out of Manchuria immediately, before the Chinese gov ernment has organized any efficient machinery for maintaining order, she would certainly have to march In again with little delay.
 What she desires. then, is to be left in unchallenged possession until things have assumed their normal condition, and to be credited with the intention of ultimate evacuation, since circum- stances sufficiently guarantee her integ- rity of purpose In return for an un-
 derstanding of that nature she is will ing to concede somethig to Japan; but what the something is she has not vet definitely explained. It is not an en- tirely free hand for Japan in Korea, To an offer in that sense Japan would
 inevitably reply that her hand is al ready free enough, that she is content with things as they are, and that she
 is not cognizant of any Russian right to dispense titles in the peninsular em- pire. Besides, whatever may be Rus sia's wish for a working arrangement,
 she carefully excludes the contingency of Japanese occupation of Korea since that would seat foreign power on the line of communications between Vladivostock and Leao- tong. Though however, it is uncertain what she IS prepared to give, it Is certain that she
 is earnestly bent upon reaching an un- derstanding Her present representa- tive in Tokio, M. Iswolsky, is an able exponent of this pacific policy, which evidently commands his entire approV- al As for the attitude of the Japan csc towards these overtures, it seems to be one of reflection rather than of welcome. There are no signs or change of opinion about Russia. She is still believed, as she has always been believed, to be incapable of controlling her own aggressive impulses. Any halt 1 that the peace party can effect in her advance can only be temporary At all events, nothing is less likely than that I Japan should conclude with Russia any
 agreement from which England was excluded That is cardinal.
 | Hence the Japanese nation views
 with comparative unconcern Marquis
 Tto's visit to St. Petersburg. Marquis
 Ito carries no commission to undertake 1 any negotiations That matters little,
 however, since he is powerful enough
 to give a commission to himself. But 1 the fact that he passed direct from the
 French capital to the Russian without
 visiting London is interpreted to mean 1 that he does not contemplate serious discussion of the far eastern question. l He may do much good by dispelling | the notion that Japan seeks to bring the Korean peninsular forcibly within | her sphere of influence, or that she is
 prey to an aggressive mood. Japan finds the race of progress quite fast l enough for her best forces. She does | not want to shoulder any new burdens, and she understands quite well that war with Russia. whatever it's fortunes, could not be carried to a decisive issue. | There are, nevertheless, some things to which any risk would seem preferable