The Washington times., 1902-06-16
Gigantic Struggle Main
Cause of Concern to
the Spectators.
BANK RESERVES VERY LOW
Felt, However, That Operators Will
Win in the End-Money Situation
May Look Better a Month From
Now.

NEW YORK, June 15.-The outlook
for the stock market this week is uncer-
tain.
Although the market has shown some
signs of returning animation during the
last day or two. 1t is by no means clear
that the impasse brought about by the
coal strike has yet disappeared. There
has. been some talk OF other reasons
which make it advisable to lengthen
the period of delay. Bank reserves are
still very low and their Improvement
is uncertain and future movement
of foreign capital has not yet been de-
fined.
A Negative Influence.
But all these are scarcely obstacles
which would stand in the way of the
market were the main cause of misgiv
ing removed 1t is the gigantic strug
gle in the coal fields which really holds
the stock exchange in check. Yet this
factor continues to influence the current
dealings only in a negative way. Per-
feet confidence is felt that the operators
will win in the end. and with this as
surance to rely upon the temporary
losses 10 the coal-mining companies and
to the outside business community are
regarded as of secondary Importance.
Extraordinary Market.
A market. however, which responds SO
little to bad news-or to good news
either when it comes from any other
quarter than the strike regions-is OBJ
viously an extraordinary If not an alb
normal market. /, reflects the smallest
degree of distribution of security hold
ings in weak speculative hands: or. what
is the same thing. the highest degree of
concentration in the hands of the
stronger Wall Street interests.
The outcome lies between two al
ternatives. Either there must be some
serious check to the countrys prosper
1ty which will frighten the large invest
ors and syndicates into selling, or these
interests will sooner or later bend their
energies to distributing their stocks on
rising price movement.
Effect of Coal Strike.
A speculative market never waits for
the sky to entirely clear before getting
into action. Under the present circum-
stances it will begin to discount the end
of the coal strike long before the end
becomes apparent to the general public.
Bearing this in mind. the gradual up
ward tendency disclosed this week may
fairly be regarded as significant. On the
surface, however, the strike position
looks no different rom what 1t did
week ago.
The miners are no less stout in their
resistance, the leaders have been sue
cessful in preventing any considerable
outbreak of violence. and no pressure
from any outside agency has been ex-
erted to force settlement.
The Money Situation.
If the money situation, which Is a
matter of some doubt in the minds of
many experienced observers, follows the
precedent of a year ago, It will look
better a month from now than 1t does
Just at present. Last June the banks
cash supply decreased $4,000. 900. loans
increased s36. OOo.O 600. and the surplus
fell from s21, ,253. 900 on the 1st OF the
month to sS,iSi 900 at the end But this
was the lowest the surplus touched until
September Z. and 1t was within less
than 81 000. 900 of the lowest point dur
ing the remainder of the year.
July is regularly a period Of heavy
Government disbursements and of ac-
tive currency forwardings from the in
terror. Last year these causes led to an
expansion of si1 100000 in local cash
holdings between July l and August 10.
and this year the chances for increase
would seem to be even better. owing to
the cutting off of the war revenue taxes.
The Government bond redemption. which
later on last summer and autumn helped
the market so materially, will not. of
course, be in operation this year. but
the reduction of the Federal income. if
IL fulfills expectations at all, ought to
be an effective substitute.
Meanwhile the increasingly favorable
position of the European banks and the
high rates OF exchange at the CONT
mental cities are an assurance against
the renewal OF gold exports. The fac
tor of mos. uncertainty in the local
money problem is the loan movement,
and, not knowing this, the future of the
banking position and the money mar
ket can only be predicted conditionally.