The Birmingham age-herald., 1902-11-19
'om the New Orleans States.


 morning took Issue with the somewhat pessimistio views recently expressed by ex-Assistant Secretary of the Treasury vanderlip now president of the City Na- tional Bank of New York, and of some of the speakers at the bankers conyen- ton In discussing the business outlook. MT. Edmonds said
 II seems to me that MT. vanderlip and ether bankers who have lately been ut terlng warnings of possible financial trouble by reasons of too much activity in business. have overlooked some in- portant facts. They have based their warnings on over speculation, but over speculation Is possibly not as great q fac- tor in comparison with our business jn- terests as is generally claimed. The real buiness interests Of the country the pro- ducing power of our farmers and our manufacturers. are so much vaster than the speculative operations of Wall street using Wall street as a term to indicate the stock speculative element of the whole country-that the banker in the money center is sometimes prone to take narrow view of the expanding trade of the United States, and of the real basis of our business activity.
 Possibly these bankers may be cor rect; possibly we may have disturbing financial conditions which will frighten capital, but may 1t not be possible that the very cry of danger so often repeated will. like the cry of fire in a crowded theatre, cause a stampede to the loss of many lives, when there was no real danger had cool heads controlled the sit- uation? We are told that our exports have declined and our imports increased, and that this is a dangerous symptom; we are told that, instead of heavy exports of steel and iron of three years ago, we are now importing steel and iron, and that this indicates the continuation of our great prosperity in these interests. It Is difficult to understand how men of such supposed business acumen can for a moment express such views. Three to five years ago our iron interests were still, by reason of the disastrous con ditions brought about by free silver agita- ton, so depressed in price that our man. ufacturers were forced, in self-protection, to push our pig iron and steel rails Into foreign markets. The home demand was then so much less than the production that we exported about million tons a year; but this was sold at a very small profit. If we sold a hundred million dol lars worth of such merchandise at lit- tie. or no profit. 1t would be absurd to say that the bringing of this hundred mill lion dollars to our country ad7ed that much to our wealth, and yet that Is the logical position of many of the views ex- pressed on the subject.
 At present the demand for Iron and steel is so great that it is impossible for our makers to supply 1t, and we are compelled to purchase abroad at the rate of probably a million tons this year; but that is not sign of bad times; it simply shows that we are enjoying such a degree of prosperity, of consuming power, that through our furnaces and rail mills and locomotive works are crowded to their utmost capacity, 1t is impossible for them to meet the consump- tive demand. We are now making pig iron at the rate of 500O0 tons day, or 100000 tons 8 year. and instead of hav- ing in stock 5o0000 to 100000 tons of un- sold iron, as we have usually carried, the entire stock in the United States Is only about fifty thousand tons, or scarce ly one day's consumption. But for the fact that foreign countries have been able to add to our own production by heavy exports to us during the last few months, many foundries and machine shops would have been forced to close for weeks or months for lack of material. Never be- fore in our history has such a condition prevailed. Even now every week sees foundries closing for a day or two at time because of their inability to secure pig iron. Every furnace in the country making iron for this trade is besieged with telegrams begging for the immediate shipment of some order on which there has been delay, or for the privilege of buying, almost without regard to price, even a few tons, in order to keep from shutting down.
 '"rhe steel rail mills are so over-sold that 1t is almost impossible to buy rails for delivery within the next ten months, ana u nuInDeT Ol OtuetS AidNO OCOA Pi0SON in Europe because of the inability to buy at home. Locomotive works are behind time on orders and have more contracts booked than they can fill between now and 1904. The aggregate capacity of all the locomotive works in the Uuited States is only about four thousand a year, and the Pennsylvania railroad alone has re- gently placed orders for 600, or one seventh of the total output of the country next years delivery. Every railroad in the country is so overcrowded with business, both passenger and freight. that it is impossi- ble to promptly handle the traffic. It Is not as in former years. a fight to secure traffic, but 1t Is now an unceasing strug- gle for traffic managers to find the cars and the locomotives to handle that which is offered Almost every locomotive in the country is doing double duty, and so great is the urgency that between trains passenger locomotives are pressed, even for few hours at time, into freight service. It Is no longer possible to send locomotives to the shops to be overhauled and repaired as soon as needed. for so incessant Is the cry from the transporta- ton men that hardly locomotive has a chance to cool from one trip to the next. The fact is, the whole railroad interests of the country are staggered by the over whelming colume of traffic offered. This, too, in the face of the fact that last year xpa bad tho shortaet corn cron for ten