New-York tribune., 1902-09-26
GAMBLERS CHANCES.

1t will be a great encoura cement to Repuph-
cans to note the confidence of James n NC
Grjre of the Democratic State COmmlttee, III
his party's success and the reasons he gives lot
the faith that is in him. Mr. Mcclure after
mature st7ldy of the situation says that ne
publican prospects seem TO him TO be pretty
DOOR, in witness whereof he specifies:
First. the Democrats should win as mere
matter of arithmetic. for they have neen 0uI
sinre 1892. Then / think that although the Ike
nuhlicans have improved their ticket II Is sun
a weak one. and the Democratic party Is thor-
oughly united for the first time IN years
OF course Mr. Mcclure thinks his party will
win. 1t is his business TO think so. He would
not have any place among Democratic leaders
If he thought otherwise-at least for publica-
tfon What is significant about his opinion IS
the gamblers reason for it The Democrats
are going TO win as matter of arithmetic
that is according TO the doctrine Of chances.
The law Of chances is indeed a matter of
mathematics. Every gambler who stands over
roulette wheel calculates that long run of
red must finally be compensated for by n turn
for the black and places his money accordingly
II is & mathematical law that in an infinite
number of even chances the black will win as
often as the red. but how many poor fellows
have gone in despair away from Monte Carlo
because what might he true of a game stretch
ing 10 eternity did not happen to be true OF
game extending over the brief period com
mensurate with the limits of their purses Inc
doctrine of chances indeed tells us that the
run of Republican successes must some time be
1,rol,en hut what assurance has Mr. Mcclure
that it will be broken this year. any more
than the desperate gambler has for thinking
that the particular turn on which he has staked
all between him and a pistol shot in some
secluded corner of the cactus walks will mark
the change in the run against him and pay
him back his losses? OF course it may, but ne
has no right to expect il.
He is unworthy of fortune who bases his
hopes not on any worth of his own, not on any
labor or achievement, but merely on the ex-
pectation that the wheel of chance will capri
ciously turn his way at the critical moment.
Yet that is the attitude of the Democratic party
as described by Mr. MCGUIRE 1t makes no
claims of reason to victory, it points TO no
record which commends il to confidence, 1t
offers no prospect of improved government It's
leader when asked why it should win, places
his dependence on blind luck.
Ru+. after all. in this he is right. Imagine
the gambler urging that he deserved a favor
able turn of the wheel Mr.. Mcclure realizes
that his party is simply gambling for victory
Therefore he is wise enough not to make II
ridiculous before a world as well aware as
himself of the situation by basing predictions
on anything but the expectation that long run
of bad luck must some day change He says
the Republican ticket is weak but that is Only
like saving he feels the hoped for change i'll
his bones for he gives no reason by when
ANYBODY else can reach the same CONCLUSION
If he thinks Governor Odell weak, what would
he call strong? If he thinks the Democracy
thoroughly united, what would he call disunlon
Must the parts be further separated than Dew
| ery and Shepard, McKelway and Coler, Hill
and Croker? Does the thoroughly united mo
sale spell Organism or ClevelandismE Would
| Democratic victory be anything more thah
desperate gamble for the people, with the
| chances ten to one that they would draw
| blank and have thereafter to seek n living
in the poolrooms instead of at the factories?