The Montgomery advertiser., 1902-03-16
General Cotton Review.

by r. NJ Scale & Col
Since last We had the pleasure OF re-
viewing the cotton situation we have seen
continued advance from Z ga to s 3-4
cents. During last fall we favored the
bull side during the entire time in the
attempt to impress our friends of the
short crop and the large consumption.
We have fully seen our views carried
out and now we have reports from every
section of the cotton belt as well as from
the leading lights of the different ex-
changes that the stocks. not in any local
section, but from every section of the
belt from Texas to the Carolnas, range
from 80 to go per cent under last year 8
holdings. Now realizing this fact We are
constrained to believe that the crop has
been very much over-estimated by false
prophets and We cannot at present see
where the cotton Is to come from that
will reach over the 10 IA mark. Our es-
innate from the first of lest September
has been between 90 and D.3 and we see
no cause at present to change our views
The very large movement that We have
had has compelled many to think the
crop in excess of these figures but when
We consider that the South raised this
crop at the greatest expense ever known
last year, and too, the fact that the hold
ers Of cotton the previous year met great
disaster, We can readily see from whence
the disposition came to sell as cotton was
marketed.
Last year after the first of April there
came into sight 1,509, 900 bales; 1900, 1,12S.-
600: in '99. 11S6 900; in '9S, $4,000; 81. 49,
900; in '96, $4,000. From this it will be
readily seen that last years movement
was in excess 100000 bales over any crop
previously marketed, and we again call
the attention of our friends to the COM
parison of the '96 crop, when. after hold
ing their cotton through the fall of 80
and sustaining great losses, there was
the freest marketing of cotton in the fail
of 90 that had been known for years.
Such reverses as those of that year and
the past season only cause the public to
market freely the ensuing year. and this
is what we claim has been done this
fall.
There has also been claimed by the
hearish element that in case of further
advance consumption would be checked.
but when We remember that so per cent
of this crop has been marketed around
3-4 cents we readily see that even 10
cents could be paid for the remnants.
and then the average would. be around
dence in the statement that consumption
would be checked on account of prices
this year. Again remembering the fact
that the provision as well as the grain
market of Chicago are excessively high
and show no signs of lower prices for
the season, we must admit that the con-
sentative merchant throughout the South
will be very cautious in putting out sup
plies for another crop. as is well known
there remains no corn or meat through
out the South to raise this crop and it
can be truthful said that this will be the
most expense crop for years back. This
fact alone is compelled to bring about
great reduction in the cotton acreage,
aside from the fact that per cent of
the cotton acreage planted last year will
be planted in cereals. Now, when we
view these facts and remember that only
S.sss,oO0 bales have been received up to
date, with possibility of not over
million bales yet to come into sight, we
see that there Is likely to be a famine in
the raw material in the summer months.
when consumption looks like 10 "a mil
lior bales. The exports 70 Great Britain.
France and the continent have been S.
$4,000 against 4.65900O last year. showing
an excess exported to date of no
bales The total domestic spinners have
taken 1900 bales against 2.535,0 900 last
wear showing an excess of $4,000 bales
to date In other words the spinners of
the world have taken $4,000 bales in ex-
cess of last year to date. and the demand
seems to continue for the raw material.
Since being so correct in our past views
in advising our friends to buy cotton, we
feel that wo should rest on our laureIs
for the time being, hut We are now Just
especially July cotton will sell for 10
cents as we were in predicting 1-2 cents
when cotton was 1-2 cents last fall. and
we continue to advise those who have
spots to hold for much higher prices af-
ter exercising their patience SO long
p S.-We have reports today that Fall
River operators will strike Monday. this
OF course. will have temporary effect and
the market may recede few points un-
der the pressure, but this will he short
lived and we advise our friends to take
advantage of this depression il It &C
ours Monday.
Yours very truly.
L