Evening star., 1902-08-01
NEW YORK STATE
A Gold Democrat Talks of It's
Politics.
RESULTS UNCERTAIN
MAY ELECT DEMOCRATS IN CON-
GREssIoNAL DISTRICTS.
Thinks Mr.. Babcock's Estimate Shows
an Overconfdence in the Com
ing Election.

III Inc oldr oI TUESDAY, SAID new 1ork
| gold democrat today, land I am free to say
that / do not recall observing a better and
more succinct statement regards my
former party than he expressed in a few
lines. Mr.. Babcock said:
" Outside of a few New York members
| of the House the democracy is as much for
free silver today as it ever was The cam
paign is being conducted by southern demo-
Gratis, who still are true to the traditions
Of the party of that section. The eastern
democrats and the northern democrats es-
pecially the Germans. still are afraid of
them. l don't think they will indorse them
this fall
speaking as democrat who abandoned d
his party because Of free silver and Bryan
ism, Mr.. Babcocks views may be indorsed,
SO far as what may be termed the better
element and the conservative wing of the
New York and northern democracy is con-
cerned. This Independent element will hold
aloof from the democracy so long as Bryan
forces himself in the fore, but the republic
can managers will find that the rank and
file of the party may develop shorter
memories, and again vote their old ticket
from force Of habit, now that the business
affairs of the country are settled. This lat
ter element may change the majorities in
some Of the close congressional districts
and New York's extreme uncertainty as re-
CARDS majorities may well at this time be
briefly considered. Over confidence has in
the past proved dangerous.
Vicissitudes of New York Politics.
While 1 think that New York will go
republican a the next presidential election,
assuming conditions to be substantially as
they are at present, it is, to my mind, an
error to be so cock sure of the state being
a republican state, as the party leaders
have claimed in the public prints, and it's
past political history, and these facts and
figures will demonstrate it.
When Grant buried Greeley under an
avalanche of $1,000 votes in 1872 this claim
might then have been made, on the face of
returns, as well as now. Yet two short
years later 10000 voters changed their
minds, and Tilden was elected governor by
$1,000 plurality.
"In 1878 the republicans carried the state
for governor because Of split in the
bolt Of Tammany. and followed their
gubernatorial victory by giving 21,0o0
plurality on their presidential ticket in 1880.
Again the state changed in 1882 to the
democracy when Cleveland swept it by
192,SO0 plurality for governor. starting
the first lap for two terms in the White
House.
"Once more in 1892 the state seemed
WeiOeO forever TO the democracy WnGn II
gave Cleveland a plurality o. 455O0 for
PRESIDENT, having in the previous year
elected democratic governor, Flower by
about $4,000 plurality.
yet in 1893 the political complexion of
the state changed again in the contest for
the judge Of the court of appeals, the
states highest appellate tribunal, the dem
ocratic candidate being beaten by over 1O1,-
600 votes.
Kaleidoscope Changes Repeated
I'm 1894 occurred the memorable contest
between Levi P. Morton and David B. Hill
for the governorship and Morton won by
10000 votes.
In 1896 Mr.. Mckinley showed under Mr..
Bryan by the unprecedented plurality of
26S,00O 1t was the gold democrats that
carried New York that year for the repub-
lican ticket, and Mr.. Mckinley often made
acknowledgment Of that fact.
In the face of a plurality of over a quar-
ter or a million votes to the good it would
seem that the democrats had been wiped off
the earth In the empire state, would it
not? But what are the facts?
Mr.. Roosevelt was the candidate for gov
ernor in 1898. He was a popular man and
the hero Of a war. Considering McKinley's
monster plurality, all that was necessary
to do was to run and count the republican
side, for the democrats ought by right of
figures to have been out of it.
Mr.. Roosevelt in all probability would
have been badly beaten in the race but for
the thoughtfulness of Boss Croker in deny
ing to Chief Justice DAILY of the supreme
court the denomination which he deserved
From a republican standpoint thanks to the
thickheadedness Of Croker, Mr.. Roosevelt
won, but by only 177s6 plurality.
Political figures are easily juggled as
a pack OF cards are shuff1ed, but political
facts are not, and those who are iupgIinr
figures as regards the complexion of New
York state may well read carefully these
brief facts and bear them in mind
Mr. Platts statement that a yellow dog
can win on the republican ticket in NeW
York this fall may be said to be ill-adyised
II political history has any value at all
A yellow dog on the democratic ticket in
the south may win. but let the mark be
drawn In this respect at the Mason and
Dixon line.
Insecurity Of Overconfidence.
MI Babcock's statement that the cam
paign Is being conducted by southern demo-
Gratis who still are true to the traditions of
the party in that section is true, and
therein lies to a large extent republican
strength and republican confidence. It is
the democratic tail in the south which is
wagging the democratic dog in the north
and the west When the dog again waes
the tall. presidential contests will take on a
diHerent aspect; The wagging process from
the dog Will not be in prospect this ensuing
campaign, as the southern element. and
Bryan. are on horseback and firm in the
saddle. '-Ae
When certain states and republican
strongholds are talked about, republican
managers are doing their party an injustice
when they include New York in that cate
cory. What l have here given you is not
an expression OF individual opinion, but are
results extending over years involving des-
perate and bitter contests. The democracy
of the empire state has shown a wonder
full vitality, and If one doubts the recupera-
tive forces of the New York democracy to
in
soundly thumped over the head by the club
of defeat. a/cursory review of the states
political history ought to dispel the doubt.
over confidence has never yet won a DO
litical pot"