New-York tribune., 1902-01-26
HARD TIMES IN GERMANY.
WHY BERLIN HAS FELT THEM
SEVERELY.
CITY GAY FOR EMPERoR'S BIRTHDAY
LIVELY AMERICAN COLONY
Copyright; 1902: BY The Tribune AssociationJ
[BY CABLE TO THE TRIBUNE.l

of commercial depression more keenly than the
other industrial centres of Germany. for the
simple reason that il supplies goods in ordinary
conditions for the home trade within the en-
plre rather than to foreign markets. and the do
rnestic rather than the foreign trade has been
demoralized. During the last year large pro-
portion OF the working population has been
thrown out Of employment, and the three
systems Of state insurances embrace accidents.
chronic illness and old age, but not nervous ex-
haustion Of the country itself. induced by over
production and undue expansion of business in
terests, direct provision has been required In
the form of public works and soup kitchens
Banking combinations under the leadership of
Berlin financiers have husbanded the resources
of capital. and trade syndicates have steadied
foreign commerce by limiting production, pre-
venting ruinous competition and maintaining
rrices but artisans whether unemployed
working half time, have been left dependent
upon meagre savings or municipal works and
public soup Kitchens yet the burdens have been
horne with exemplary patience and military
discipline and the imperial capital the eve
Of the Emperor's birthday has not lost an air Of
light hearted gayety.
The most encoura aging sign of this week has
been the remarkable demonstration that the
empire has enormous reserves Of capital and
credit which are awaiting the restoration Of
confidence. The imperial and Prussan loans,
about SO 100000, have been subscribed for
fifty times over from the banking reserves and
private boards. Even when allowance has been
made for the low rate Of German and Prussian
3's and for a margin of profit by spectators
there can be 10 surer indication that the times
ere mending, as the leading bankers have been
asserting since the opening Of the year.
The industrial depression of the last twelve
I.Ial fn1 olIr4i0 Of
1851 in the United States with the important
exception that the collapse of all business in
terests although generally apprehended, has
not happened. The chief cause of depression
was the expansion OF domestic trade and build
ing enterprise on speculative lines, when the re-
serves of capital and the resources Of organiza-
ton were lacking for financing operations Of ex-
traordinary ma gnitude. Cold water is not an
exhilarating regimen when financiers, specu-
latois and manufacturers have been drinking
brandy for a long period. but the SOLDERING effect
while gradual is inevitable.
Cautious fnanciers. who have been wonder
Ing whether the bottom would fall out OF every
thing, are now convinced that the resumption of
tusiness ACTIVITIES IS impending. A remarkable
feature Of the prctracted period of depression
has been the steadiness Of foreign trade. The
Judgment Of manufacturers and merchants, who
kets for quarter OF a century has been
nsrkaby vindicated Foreign trade has been
the anchor to winGward during the protracted
period OF storm and stress. The German ship
has rghted herself. because heavily ballasted
with foreign commerce. This supplies the
chants Of Hamburg Bremen and the frontier
towns with a strong argument against the new
tariff bill. by which reciprocity arrangements
viii he imperilled and foreign trade restricted.
Even more effective objections come from the
SOCIALISTS and National Liberals. who inveigh
against increased taxation imported food
when the artisan class is out of work and
titled the minimum cost Of living.
Il is now an open question whether any COM
baation of the groups in the Reichstag IS prac
ticable for securing the passage of tariff bill
with increased protection for agricultural prod
ucts. The failure Of the tariff scheme is prob
able even if the rumors Of the projected COM
mercial coalition Of Russia and Austria Hun
gary are not Well founded. While the German
Emperor expects the ministers either to con-
ciliate or to manage the Agrarians by setting
up group against another. he is not per-
eonaIly interested in the tariff scheme, he has
been in the naval policy. Foreign relations are
directly under his control. especially when Eng
land is involved.
The entertainment of the Prince of Wales will
not lack either heartiness stateliness. There
has been breach of the relations of the two
royal houses. and the Emperor has too true an
instinct in forecastng the trend Of race tenden-
cies and events not to perceive that England
and Germany will be natural allies in the future,
when the furry of excitement over the Boer
war passes There is every indication that the
relations Of the two countries will improve in
consequence Of the brief visit of the Prince of
Wales and that the military and court func-
tions connected with the birthday celebration
viii be OF unwonted splendor.
Americans are represented by the Continental
journals as receiving ardent attentions from two
Jealous slIitors each eager to supplant the other
According TO some cynical humorists it is a
game OF "Codlin's the friend. not Short" The
more rational view is that the United States,
England and Germany are in line with n
other as progressive maritime nations, and have
everything TO gain by being friendly with
another. The German Emperor Is paying both ma
tons compliments in turn in receiving the Prince
OF Wales and sending Prince Henry the
Atlantic Moreover. there is no evidence of any
thing save friendly feeling in the relations of
Germany and the United States. The canal
question has not been raised in any form at
Berlin There are signs in Germany of hos
ulity toward the American acquisition of the
Danish West Indies. and the Monroe Doctrine
VIII not be challenged in the coercive measures
Tor the enforcement of the Venezuelan financial
obligation The tariff bill. If 1t be enacted. will
be directed against Russia. Austria Hungary
and France, as well against the United States.
Even the drastic insurance law, which has ex-
cited protests from powerful American life in
surance companies. is aimed equally against all
foreign companies, and has already driven the
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