BoletiÌn mercantil de Puerto Rico. (San Juan, P.R.) 18??-1918, 1902-06-12
The November Outlook.
DEMOCRATIC CHANCES
OF CARRYING THE HOUSE
No Small Task to Make the Neces-
sary Net Gain of Twenty-Five
Seats in the North.

Washington, June THE control Of
the House of Representatives in the
Fifty-eighth Congress is already provok-
ing much discussion in political circles
here. This discussion is already find
ing reflection in bushes circles, since
the mid-term Congressional elections
have come to be looked on as foresha-
dowing to a considerable degree the Pre-
sidential battle two years later.
The prediction is rather freely made
here that the Democrats will carry the
next House this is by no means an
unusual outlook at this stage of the
campaign. In fact, it looked in May,
1900 as if they stood a good chance of
carrying the House even though there
was not the slightest chance of Bryan's
election to the Presidency. The De-
mocrats have a natural advantage in
contests for the House, due to the solid
ity of the South and the divisibility of
the North.
Off-year elections such as the coming
one usually go against the party in po-
wer, and this also is emphasized as an
argument. Since Grants second inau-
gtlration, the House elected at the mid
term has been every time opposite in
political faith to the Administration,
with the exception of Cleveland's first
term and McKinleys. These mid-term
contests have almost as regularly fore
Shadowed the results of the next Pre-
Sidential contest. Not since the Demo
Gratis carried the House in 1886 has the
party successful at the mid-term failed
to carry the next Presidential election.
1t will not do, however, for either
side to rely on generalities in forecast
ing ths coming Congressional contest.
1t is different from any other that has
been fought since the civil war. There
will be 1856 Representative elected, of
which I83 would be an even half. The
South, not including Maryland or West
Virginia, will contribute about IIS De-
Representatives. The thir-
teen distinctly Southern States will
have under the new apporttonment I25
seats; the Republicans now have nine
Representatives from this belt, two each
from Missouri, North Carolina. and
Tennessee, and three from Kentucky.
But Missouri has been redivided in the
most outrageously partisan way of any
State in the Union. An endeavor has
been made to get all the Republican
parts of St Louis into one district,
which has been made excessively large |
IS well as overwhelmingly Republican.
f this plan works out as its trainers in
ended, a party which polled in the last
election $4,000 votes will get only
me Representative in Congress, where
IS party polling $4,000 ballots will
ret fifteen There is a prospect that
he gerrymander has resulted in spread
ng out the Democratic majority SO thin
n some districts that the Democrats will
ose them and so be punished for foul
LAY. No party has monopoly, how
ver, in this respect. The Republicans
f Illinois have cut up that State SO
hat, instead of eleven Demscrats and
leven Republicans, as at present, it is
expected that there will be nineteen
republicans and six Democrats under
be next apportionment.
The Southern Situation.
But to return to the Southern situa-
ion If the Missouri plan works out,
he Republicans viii lose a district
here, and they are liable to lose one
ach in Kentucky and North Carolina.
'ut these losses viii perhaps be nearly
6set 5y gain il Missouri from the
realring down d the gerrynander, SO |