The Minneapolis journal., 1902-07-10
DEFENDS THE GOVT
Sec'y Wilson Talks of Agriculture
Bureau Crop Estimates.
H. v. JONES EXPLAINS CRITICISM
Says System Is Not Satisfactory, but
Hasn't Been Criticized in an
Offensive Sense.

a tzy5r.5sE- EoHehsfVe sense.
James Wilson, secretary of agriculture,
who arrived this morning to attend the
National Educational association sessions.
defends his departments system of crop
reports and crop estimates against the
attacks of it's opponents. What he has to
say in behalf Of what he calls the "best
current crop information in the country
is of especial interest to Minneapolis
grain and commission men, who are ae-
customed to place little reliance on the
government crop reports.
II. V. Jones, former commercial editor
OF 7 J o ur n and now editor of
the Commercial West, is northwestern
authority on the crop outlook who takes
When he read the Wilson interview this
afternoon Mr.. Jones told what the chief
objections were to the government sys-
TEN. The government, he says, has not
been approximate yaccurate"-the thing
that is most desired by grain men.
The two interviews from men so well
qualified to speak are fair summaries Of
both sides of the question and suggest a
possible middle ground on which the pres
ent objections to the governments system
OF crop reports may be overcome
Says Mr.. Wilson. =~-=-
There has been much talk about the crop
statistics issued by the agricultural DEPART
ment disagreeing materially with those issued
by the census department for 1899. While
some of this criticism is being offered it ID
well to remember that the agricultural de-
partment's estimate Of the cotton crop for
1899 parallels the census reports for that
year closely. s~-> ..
- The census report, being a house -to-house
canvass, is the best information We have
f11 p,1ff hanr, 81,
since, and 1 think it is a fair contention that
the estimates of the agricultural department
are the best current crop information there
is in the country. I have worked hye years
on the present system. The department has
a well-organized staff Of correspondents in
every state. Our inquiry extends into the
townships. Our information comes from
local correspondents and good observers tray
cling through the country as we'll. I know
Of no one else who puts the time or expense
to securing reliable crop information that
the department does. AS to the spring wheat
acreage Of the northwest for this year, the
department has already issued an estimate
of decrease You, may be sure that this
estimate is furnished on the best information
that can be secured and on more good in
formation than is gathered by any other
person or institution. p" =
You will find that the spectators. as a
rule adversely criticize the departments re-
ports. They have reason We give the
public the facts. That is not always agree
able to the speculator.
Mr.. jones' View of 1t.
Mr.. Jones said: ~ z :.
There is no disposition on the part OF any
individual or organization, think to crit
icize the department OF agriculture in an Of
fensive sense What is desired by all is
approximate accuracy. The government has
not been approximately accurate in its re-
ports; indeed, it has made grievous blum
ders with stubborn insisterce that all the
critics we're in error! Take the wheat crop
of. 1900 to illustrate - In August the govern
nent estimated the northwest crop at about
SC, ,G0o 900 bushels T h e j our a estt-
mate that year was 1856 100000, and it has
been sustained. The government made the
total wheat crop for 1900 4so,0o0,000 bushels
in that year. The critics said the govern
ment was too low, but the bureau said that
could not be- because Of the carefufness
with which the work was done. 1t is inter
esting to note, therefore, that when the gov
ernment made its final estimate in 1901 of the
previous years production, it raised Its hg-
ures more than 40, 900, 900. This is what the
critics said should have been done in the
beginning.
The governments great error has been in
acreage figures. It took the Genus to force
the bureau to come up to the level of pro
duction that would harmonize with dtsri-
button. For several years net primary dis
tribution has been a good deal in excess OF
the government figures. 49,
The great trouble with the government sys-
tenn is that it is based on correspondence.
No crop reporting can be approximately ac-
curate when left to the average of thousands
of opinions which must come from three
classes-the honest man and good judge, the
dishonest man and the man with honest in
tentions but poor Judgment. The result Is
bound to be an error The safest, method
Of crop reporting is the Judgment of the in
diyidual who personally inspects the crops In
field. If the government would divide its
territory into four or five sections and take
the judgment of four five picked men on
the production of the respective sections,
am sure the result would be much less in
error than it has been for ten years There
should be a different set of men for each
crop. The expense would be relatively small.
There is nothing more misleading than the
law of averages in crop estimating.
- Good crop estimates are few, however. Many
think they are good judges, but if put to a
test for a large area, they would fail. The
great secret in reporting is to see the crop
without prejudice, not merely to look at 1t.
os assume in loud voice what conditions may
| be. / anticipate the government will soon
be at sea again because of the system used.
| 1t must be go necessarily. A
The work Of Secretary Wilson's bureau,
outside of crop reporting, is to be commend
! ed Much original work is being corried on
and good is resulting.
| . = 7 : - -