The Montgomery advertiser., 1902-01-14
Actual
 Crnn

It Is to be noted that the most sub stantial variations shown by their figures was in the year 1S99-l900. when 1t is ad- mitted, although the commercial crop turned out to be 9,436.00o. the amount of cotton actually grown did not exceed e.10o0o0. the balance having come from surplus held over from the previous years unprecedentiy large production. Upon the average for the past eleven years, Messrs R. T. Wilson & Co.'S esti- n1Ate has been within 900 bales of the actual outturn.
 Notwithstanding the fact that bears violently assailed the credibility of Messrs R.. T. Wilson & Co.'S estimate. there seems no reason in my mind to doubt it's substantial accuracy. and every proof to which I can subject 1t fully hears out the figures that they have pub Iished. They are, moreover, practically sustained by such authorities as the United States Government, Messrs Latham, Alexander & Co.,, The New York Journal of Commerce: Messrs J. H. Parker & Go. and by my own figures. published on the 18th of November. which represented the most exhaustive inves- tigation that had been up to that time able to make. I am now prosecuting fresh inquiry with view of determining the comparative stocks of cotton held at all the Southern towns having popu- lation of more than three hundred people. An effort has been made to disparage Messrs Wilson & Co.'S estimate by put ting emphasis upon the present relative ly large movement of cotton which is running on a scale equal to that of last year, when the crop turned out approxi- mately 10,40o,00o. I have previously en- tered into an elaborate argument to show that the movement Is not an index of the supply, but Is rather an evidence of the demand An analysis for the past fourten years Is as follows. the movement given in thousands bales.
 1ss7-s. 1sss-s lsSs-o 1sso-1. Total in sight to .,E Jan. l. ............5.ss4 4.s65 5.445 5,Tss Total in sight dur >' . ing month of Jan. $40 7s2 7sq s72 Feb. i.t :;5.'s. 5.7S7 slsaS s.7o Percentage of total /
 crop .. ............. S4.s s3,N s5.1 7s.2 Total crop .......,7.o17 6.a55 7.313 s.S55
 lssl-a. lsss s-s isss-4 lss4-5. Jan. I ...........,s.4oa ..ns 5.ao s.ss4 Total in sight dur
 rss:, ,ss month 'is .isa, ss s'1 's ITS l.''o
 
 Percentage of total
 crop .. ,......... 7e.2 7s.3 S21 S0.9 Total crop ........ .s.oSs s.n7 7.550 s.so1
 1sss-s lsss-7. iss7-s. 1sss-s Total in sight to
 Jan. l. ..............4.sSz o.SSS f.zso f'fzo Total in sight dur r ing month of Jan 619 72s 1889 1.170 Total in sight to
 Feb. 1. .............5.55l 7.12s s.6s5 s.ss5 Percentage of total crop .. ........ T7.6 Si.4 T.5 7S.9 Total crop ........7.157 SHE'S II 200 Il 276
 1sss-o. 1soo-l 1sol-2 Total in sight to Jan. l.. 5.s17 6.575 e.6o4 Total in sight during
 month of January...... s55 sS2 1.0oo Total in sight to Feb. 1. 6.s72 7,557 7.So4 Percentage of total crop. 72.S 72.s ..... Total crop .............. 9.436 10. SS3 .:... I have estimated the January move rnent this year at one million bales prob ably in excess of the actual figures, but, assuming that we had received this quan- tity. during January. we shall have in sight on the lst of February of this years crop 7,604,000. The figures above the total crop show the percentage of the crop in sight up to February 1st for each year.
 It appears that the movement last year was the lowest on record, while that of isss-90 was the most rapid on record. It also appears that in '94-95, when we had crop of only s.90o.0 there was the end of January nearly 100000 bales more in January this year. and that heavy Janu- ary movements are not infrequently found the case of exceptionally small cropg