Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1902-12-13
RATIFICATION ASSURED
Pepper Tells of the Treaty
in Cuba's Congress.
TO BE MADE EFFECTIVE
SO-CALLED ANTI-AMERICAN
LEADERS WILL SUPPORT IT,
AS They Will Subsequent Tariff Legis-
lation in the Interest of Encourag-
ing Agriculture.
TO BE MADE EFFECTIVE


Special Correspondence OF The Evening Star
HAVANA, December 0. 1902.
Some things are foreknown about the
course of reciprocity in the Cuban congress.
Therefore, they may be foretold.
The treaty with the United States will be
ratified by the Cuban senate. After that
the camara, or house. will concur with the
senate in passing the tariff legislation
necessary to make the treaty effective. In
the midway stages there may be the usual
doubts and uncertainties. Amendments
may be proposed and in other ways the
progress of reciprocal tariff legislation may
seem clogged. But all the while a definite
end will be in sight.
Nothing in the Cuban constitution calls
for a two-thirds vote of the senate in rati-
flying treaties. As that body Is composed of
twenty-four members, thirteen votes are all
that will be necessary. But more will be
given when the time comes. Some hints
also will be afforded of the general trend
of tariff sentiment among the Cuban legis-
lators.
Sort of Dingley Law.
1t may come about later that the Cuban
congress will pass kind of a Dingley law
authorizing the executive to make treaties
of commerce under conditions similar to
those in the United States. The propositions
to this effect which already have been
made and discussed, and which caused
confusion in Washington, indicate that this
plan finds favor. But it is only likely to
come after the whole subject of CONNER
cial reciprocity is thrashed out.
The processes of legislation here are not
fully understood. Sometimes it is thought
desirable to draw the hostile fire and the
way of doing this is to draw friendly fire
also. By the time either branch of the
Cuban congress has to consider formal
reciprocity convention with the United
States, the opposition will be located and
much of its force will be spent. This gives
hope that the actual discussions will not be
prolonged.
No political group or party in Cuba can
aHord to hold up the question indefinitely,
and no political group can afford to take
its stand against the material prosperity
which lowering of the duties on Cuban
products in the markets of the United
States means for Cuba.
American Markets Imperative.
The party platforms of all the groups
favor encouraging agriculture, and this only
can be done through the American mar
kets. The so-called anti-American leaders,
who are not really anti-American, know
this and most of them will support the
treaty and the subsequent tariff legislation.
Ihere may be some dispute about consti-
tut1onal prerogatives and some back talk
between the house and the senate with
cross-hring at the executive but this will
mean.no more than 1t does in the American
congress. Both bodies have rather com
pncated rules, the house more especially
but when they get into a bad tangle thew
take short cut without much regard to
the rules and come out into the open. That
will happen in the reciprocity debates if the
complications multiply.
In the most polite language of dipIomacv
several European nations have protested
that they Were not intriguing against the
proposed reciprocity convention between
the United States and Cuba. They have said,
After you, dear Uncle Sam and have
bowed very low. Their real campaign has
been to maintain the present status. which
Kept for them marked commercial advan-
tages But since they cannot do this, they
will seek to save their interests as best
they can.
Some of them count on keeping a share
OF the Cuban trade which otherwise would
go to the United States, through continuing
the six and nine months credits which En-
ropean merchants give to their Cuban GUS
toners. American exporters uniformly re-
fuse this concession
No Ground for Fear.
In the Cuban congress the executive is
likely to be questioned pretty closely re-
garding the effect of the treaty provisions
on the revenues of the island These are
substantially the sole source of income.
They have to be guaged pretty carefully.
In November the customs receipts dropped
S2U0,WO below the income during the same
month last year; previously they have
averaged trfie more.
In erect there is ground for Cuba
to fear real loss of revenue For the
last twelve months the consuming capacity
of the island has been at it's lowest level
1t was bound either to stay there or to
rise. If the prosperity which everybody
sees ahead under reciprocity comes. the
increased consumption is certain to he
large. In general way it is a safe guess
that for the first year it will fully make up
for the losses caused in the amount of du-
ties lowered on goods from the United
States as compared with importations from
Europe, and after that the positive gain
will begin. President Palma has to make
this clear to the Cuban congress. to the
Havana merchants, and to the producing
classes of the interior, but he can do So
Some of the od-timers already are
dreaming of the golden days of the Blaine
reciprocity. when everybody from the plan
tatlon hand up to the absentee planter was
getting plenty of income. Whether this
follows Immediately or not, it is certain
that with the heavy cane sugar crop this
year and with the gradual Improvement in
industrial and commercial conditions Cuba
may turn the balance of trade which was
against her in 1901, the importations hay-
ing been S66 5S4 900, as against expectations
of S83,2IS,OOO. The increased price of the
sugar crop alone gives reasonable assur-
ance of favorable balance the coming
year, but with reciprocity in force the as
surance is made doubly strong That is
why radical congressman will hesitate to
go on record as blocking profitable trade
arrangement.
Will Help Palma's Administration.
The political effect of putting reciprocity
in force will be to help President Palma s
administration, just as any administration
| is helped by a prosperous period Reel
procity is expected to have another impor-
tant effect, but the prophets are not agreed
what this effect will be when it comes to
the question of annexation, which is now
| under the rose. A month ago, after taking
| observation for two or three weeks, / was
| inclined to write the obituary of the annex
alton propaganda in Cuba. whatever might
| be going on in the United States But after
| further observations my disposition would
Il