Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1902-11-08
OUR EASTERN TRADE
Great Opportunities Open to
American Producers.
WARNING TO SHIPPERS
DEVELOPMENT OF ASIATIC COM
MERGE WILL BE SLOW.
The Conquest of the Far East Cannot
Be Accomplished in Short
Order.
WARNING TO SHIPPERS
petial Correspondence Of The Evening Star.

in the extension of American commerce and
| influence abroad can view the situation IN
| the far east with mingled pride and alarm.
! There is abundant cause for pride In the
| evident respect entertained for America by
| all Asatic nations. There never was pc
| Rod of history when the United States was
| SO trusted by Japan, China, Corea and Siam
! as at this very hour. American diplomacy
| is a synonym for truthful dealing and I'M
swerving fairness. At every Asiatic capital
implicit confidence is placed in the repre-
| sentatives of the United States as those OF
| the one Caucasian land which has no ul-
terror purpose, no sub rosa antl-Aslatlc
policy, and, above all, no scheme Tor terri
| torial ACKNOWLEDGEMENT.
These characteristics fortunately have ac-
| companied the sudden and remarkable rise
| of the United States to a world power. Ten
| years ago she was regarded as a third-rate
| factor in International politics and COM
merce by all Asiatic nations and peoples
| Then our ministers and consuls literally
stood way down the line behind the repre-
sentatives of Great Britain, Germany,
| France Russia and even little countries
| like Belgium and Holland, because America
| was considered small and unimportant in all
| matters except area. But with the Spanish
war the stage setting and the actors both
| changed, as If the work of mighty magic.
| Now the United States Is everywhere treat
ell and honored as first among the nations.
| and her ministers and consus are at the
head of the line from Pekin to Bangkok.
All patriotic Americans cannot fail to re-
| joice that our new position among oriental
| countries has not been attained by processes
| OF force against them, but by record of
| honor that has proved more effectual than
gunboats and battalions. While there Is
difference of opinion in America concerning
our Philippine policy, there should be una
! nimity of judgment in regard to our rela-
tions with the four independent governments
Acin n frfr
that has made US morally strong with our
Asiatic neighbors is that we have followed
with few exceptions the golden rule in both
political and material negotiations.
| Having devoted nearly five months-May,
June July, August and September-of this
year to visiting the capitals and prin-
cipal cities, both coast and interior,
of far eastern nations, in my capac-
ity as commissioner general to Asia
and Australasia for the Louisiana
| Purchase Exposition, and having come
into close contact with the representative
native officials, from the highest to the low
| est-emperors to tidewaiters-and with the
leading business men, native and foreign, l
| hope that my humble suggestions may be
| of some passing interest. AS / have the ad-
vantage of comparing recent conclusions
with those made while American minister
to Siam from 1894 to 1898. these later OBJ
servations may be nearer the truth than
! many made during former days.
Dangers to American Commerce.
Causes for pride were mentioned in the
beginning. Now, to form broad and more
correct view, we can note the causes for
alarm. First. there are too many indica-
tons that American manufacturers, mer-
chants and exporters in general ara going
at the Asiatic field for commercial expan-
sion in a too superficial manner 1t would
seem as if they were not making a careful
study of Asiatic demand and supply, of
Asiatic methods of reasoning, life and doing
lnTtE= how 1g-gr Iii II ,
the cardinal mistake of thinking that an
Asiatic invasion can be conducted on the
same principles and with the same success
as their European invasion of which so
much has been written. Reference Is not
made here to the old established American
houses which are branches of veteran parent
firms in New York and San francisco, but
to the new companies recently organized
and established either by themselves in the
orient or with headquarters at home. Many
of these have lately been disappointed le-
cause they have failed to realize large profits
in short period. Some have shut up shop
and gone home. Others have retired to
await better times. Scores of American
agents coming to Asia have returned dis
gusted because they could not secure trade
profits equal to those obtained in progress
sive, prosperous America. 1t may seem par
adoxical but it is true that "hustling" is
not virtue in Asia. Zeal and persistence
are essential, but when accentuatel with
that measure of all-conquering assurance
which converts those qualities into an I'M
| alloyed tendency to hustle the east, they
will bring trouble and disaster.
Development Must Be Slow.
Second, serious error is being committed
by American men and corporations plan
ming to do business in Asia in assuming
that the expansion of trade throughout
China is to come Immediately, even in
the near future, and that consequently
they will earn large dividends from the
start. The development will be slow. Ten
or twenty years will be required for China
to rival the marvellous strides of Japan.
The Unreasonable conservatism of Cathay
is balance to her Unreasonable resources
and possibilities. Two things are absolute
ly essential to any rapid increase in Chinese
import and export trade; one Is political
that of reform in government or admins
tration of law and justice and in collec-
ton of taxes; the other Is material-the
construction of a system of railways that
will connect all important points of the In
terror with each other and particularly
with the ports of the seacoast. In some
respects the latter is more necessary than
the first and may tend to make the first an
| | earlier fact than IL no railroads were built.
| ! 1t will require ten years to start well the
/ | system of railway construction; 1t will re-
4 | quire ten years more to make it sufficiently
i | extensive to have great effect trade.
4 At least two decades must, therefore, pass
| before China will prove the commercial
/ Eldorado that it is sometimes pictured
II | d
\ ! in the opportunity for America in Asia
\ and desire to continue my agitation for its
/ appreciation which l began nearly ten
Il years ago In reports to the State Depart
Il ment and In articles for the magazines and
4 newspapers, l am prompted in all Justice tc
Il | the truth and in aid of practical results to
II point out that the rewards for Asiatic ex-
i | pliotaton will come only to those who real
II lie the difficulties and delays as well as
II the latent possibilities
H Twenty Years, Perhaps.
H 1t is reasonable to expect that in two dec.
II AIDES more Chinas foreign trade will equal
H 50, DOC, 000. 600 per annum instead of $685.
II 100000 now, but that total cannot be reach
H ed before that time, and the increase will
II be greater during the last five of the TWEEN.
II ty years than 1t will during the first fifteen
Il The sum of 81, 600, 600 600 makes only So pei
H head for her 10000 900 inhabitants, but
Il now the average per head is less than 81
II Japan has developed her per capita of for.
Il eign commerce in thirty years from 81 to ST
II That of America is over sos for popula.
II ton of SO000000. Japan, Corea Siam, the
II Philippines and eastern Siberia are promis
II ing fields for our legitimate exploitation
II but China, with her vast population anC
II her urdeveloped riches, is the tempting
! Of