The Minneapolis journal. [volume] (Minneapolis, Minn.) 1888-1939, 1902-11-01
CHANCE FOR C0LER TO WIN
Continued from First Page.)

elected next Tuesday. They think that
they see the signs of political overturn-
ing such as occasionally happens in the
middle Of presidential term, and which
takes the form Of an opposition house Of
representatives. They neglect to note,
however, that these oVerturnings have
always taken place when general political
conditions were favorable to the opposi-
ton. The situation, as a whole this year
bears no such favorable relation to the
opposition as it has done in years of demo-
cratic victory, but setting that fact aside,
there are two facts which point strongly
in the direction of the continuation In
power Of the republicans. Both are re-
lated to the new congressional reaper
tionment, which goes into effect at this
election.
The house of representatives to be
elected next Tuesday will have twenty
nine more members than the present
house, ten of them coming from southern
states. and nineteen from northern
states. - Colorado is the only northern
state having an increased congressional
representation which gave its electoral
vote to Bryan; West Virginia, a southern
republican state, offsets Colorado with a
similar% increase. The advantage. there
fore, at thea&outset is nine members in
favor of sthe3republcans. III !
THERE'S another republican advantage
in the fact that the legislative readjust-
| ment of congressional district lines in
| northern states has this time been in the
hands Of the republicans themselves and
the democrats have not had an oppor-
/ tunity to perpetuate the gerrymanders
which diSgraced the reappOrtiOnment of
1890. The democratic victory of that
| year gave that party full legislative power
in the states heretofore reliably repub-
| lican, at the time when the congressional
| district lines were being changed to con-
form to- the 1890 census. The gerry
manders were so unfair and contrary to
the spirit Of the law that numbers of them
| were overturned by the courts, but enough
remained In force to give the democrats a
distinct advantage in republican states,
notably of the middle west, throughout
the decade. That advantage was lost in
1900, for the legislatures Of northern
states which made the last readjustment
of congressional district lines were almost
exclusively republican. '>
In the present house Of representatives
there are approximately 200 repub.
| licans and 1856 democrats, with several
| vacancies on both sides, caused by death
! A majority is 179. AS there will be
| twenty-nine more members in the next
house, 1874 votes will be necessary 70,
a majority. This would compel the demo.
Gratis to gain. thirty eight votes in order
| to control Larger gains and greater
| changes than this have been made in con.
gressional elections, but the general con
ditions had to be more favorable thar
they are at present to authorize them.
A careful analysis Of the situation doe
not appear to justify the democratic
claim that the next house will be demo
cratic. At the same time, it is we'll t
bear In mind the fact that in all proba
bility the republican margin will be con
siderably less than it is in the presen
house, which was elected in the presi
dental year 1900, when the Mckinley feel
ing was/at its height. Broadly speaking
the republican party is probably in just a
good repute with the general public nov
, as it was then, for President Roosevelt, i
a different way, and for different rea
sons, has established himself in the popu
lar thought to degree almost equal t
that attained by Mckinley. His per
sonality Is going to affect the election mex
week very decidedly in a number of tn
states. But Notwithstanding this fac,
the situation in New York and in Pennsyl
: vania, for reasons which neither tn
president nor the republican campaig
managers can control, is far from bein
satisfactory, and the most careful est
mates indicate republican losses. I
: Pennsylvania, for instance, it Is said tina
6 seven districts now filled by republican
3 are in danger; in New York the numbe
s is about the same. In these states, ther
: there are reasons for believing that TIL
iSpupllCdliS may SutLSi q IlSI loss Oh dDOC
fourteen members Add to that fact til
usual apathy of the off year, and 1T is nc
( difficult to understand that the republica
8 margin in the new fifty-eighth congress
will be nearer the margin In the fifty
sixth congress. thirteen or thereabout.
t | than the margin of the present bod
r elected in a landslide year. 1t is said 0
8 | good authority that the closest figures /
. the republican campaign managers in Ne,
0 York suggest a margin of sixteen. TIL
' result may be under rather than over thu
Il figure. .,