The times. [volume] (Richmond, Va.) 1890-1903, 1902-01-03
BUSINESS OUTLOOK FOR 1902.

,ar+ ,,r;n,s a. number OF interviews
with frranciers and business men atia
railroad men on the present conoiuoh
OF finances and business, and the OUTLOOK
for 1902. The interviews are with Lyman
Il Cage. late Secretary OF the treasury
George r. Roberts, Director of the MIMI
Martin ). Knapp. chairman OF the inter
state Commerce Commission; Marshall
Fs.la Abrarn S. Hewitt, John Claim,
walker Hill. president of the American
Exchange Bank Of St Louis; R1cha1d
a.. McCurdy, president of the Mutual
Life Insurance Company; James II.
Eckels. president of the Commercial Ma
t,onal Bank Of Chicago and formerly
Comptroller Of the Currency; A B. Hep
burn, vice-presiden. Of the Chase Ma
tional Bank Of New York, and others.
The answers given were to the following
questions:
ny Has tho turn in the general move
snent Of American prosperity ALREADY DC
CURED, or is greater prosperity before
US?
{21 Is the position of America in the
cxport trade likely, in your opinion, to DE
maintained; il so, by what means?
g.. Do you zee any signs of reaction
IN the interior trade movement or does
IT. to YOU show signs of proceeding fur-
tfer?
r4) Do YOU think that period of par
tiai liquidation is before us. or is 1t your
opinion that that period has already been
completed? ,
5.) What should you mention as the
most encouraging factors making for
the continued Industrial prosperity Of the
United States?
with hardly an exception these men
Express the opinion that our present
prosperity will continue. that our export
trade is in no danger Of decrease, and
they all agree that there are no signs OF
reaction in the interior trade movement.
Mr.. Gage thinks that the encouraging
facts in the trade outlook are the state
of peace which we happily now enjoy;
THE general intelligence and virtue of our
pkople: the healthy condition of our
public finances; and, in general. the oDe-
ration OF that natural law under which
al, things put In motion continue in mo-
ton until checked or stopped by an in
terfering cause
There is no doubt about the prosperity
Sof the country. That is SO manifest that
it needs not to be demonstrated. The
only question, therefore. is as to whether
or not we shall be able to keep it UP.
There have been many periods of pros
pcrity in this country, and they have been
followed by periods of depression. 1t is
reasonable to suppose that what has
been Will be. and that sooner OF later
depression will come. But We cannot
will last longer than other seasons of
prosperity which the country has en-
jcyed, and for several reasons. First of
all, we have had no wildcat speculation
in this country since last spring. Specu-
lators did go wild at that time, but they
had severe lesson on the 9Th Of May,
and while there have been periods of
speculative activity IN the stock market
since, and while the prices of some
stocks have been manipulated upward,
there has been nothing like speculative
craze, ard there is nothing like it to-
day. This it seems to us, is most nota-
bic IN view Of the fact that the railroads
of fhc country have been limited in their
business only by their equipment; that
tho iron and steel industries have been
as busy as they could be with orders for
a year ahead; that the bank clearings
are enormous; that the amount of money
sn the country is greater than ever be-
fore. yet practically all are employed in
legitimate trade.
Again, it is an encouraging fact that.
except in some few cases. notably in the
copper trade, there has been no DISPOSE
tion on the part of the great industries
OF the country to overdo business or to
lchate prices. In spite of the enormous
demand for iron, the United States Steel
Corporation, and other iron and steel con-
cerrs. have kept their prices on a con-
sentative basis and seem to be satisfied
II they can maintain the present status.
Still another encouraging fact is that
the industrial and commercial concerns
of the country seem to be on good terms
with their employees. and employees seem
to be satisfied with the wages that they
are earning. More than that, there is a
manifest disposition on the part of these
employing concerns and their employees
to establish Community of interest,"
and to avoid strikes.
Again, 1t seems to US that the enormous
export trade which this country has built
up will materially aid il, prolonging the
period of prosperity. When we lived
within ourselves, and when our manufac-
ture,s depended almost entirely upon the
home market for the consumption of
their goods. the tendency In prosperous
seasons was to overproduce, and with
cvcyproduction came shutting down of
mills and throwing out OF employment,
and then We went from bad to worse
until period of distress came. But ul,-
der the present conditions we have for
cign markets for our surplus products