The Montgomery advertiser., 1902-04-27
COTTON SITUATION.
The Views of a Prominent French
 Cotton Man.

SOlLOh 2SAdh'
 Editor The Advertiser.
 Feeling that your paper would always be willing to help the farmers ana the cotton interests as well I enclose an ar tiele from prominent cotton man ot Havre. France. and request its punlica-
 Havre. April 4-"Referring to my cir cular of March ]. l had estimated the movement of the crop for the month or March at 63o000 bales, but 1t has only been 613.o0 For the month of April the bears of New York and Liverpool prom ised d movement of about 500,OO0 bales. My estimate for April was 32o.Oo bales, and today it would seem improbable that this figure will be reached.
 At all points the exhaustion or the crop is complete, and Mir Theodore II. Price of New York has been the only one to assert this against the contradictions and detractions of the entire trade Ever since December MT. Price, passing his de- auctions upon various and painstaking in- quirles las maintained that w were face to face with an extremely limited produc- tion, a real short crop, That the hnal estimate of this crop is about 10WW.WG bales is a matter of secondary inDo"- iance. The aim wns to put the Wnoi" trade on guard against the current esti- mates of II 100000 at least; estimates pro- ceeding from so authoritative source that many spinners, relying upon an inn mense production, instead of proiltlny by the very moderate prices at the begin ming Of the campaign only bought from day to day, and at the pr snt mo- ment find themselves without any reserve stock
 When I noted the unanimity of the various attacks upon NJ. Theodore Price. whose documentary reports upon the crop very evidently defeated the projects of many large spsCulators-when the most absurd allegations, calumnieS and dcfam- atlons were being daily showered upon him-I remembered the words of Goethe: '"Eain Mann den ale Menschen hassen. Dc" mu2s was sein.
 GA man who is hated of all, you may be assured is somebody
 "I have closely studied Mir. Prices cir clIlars. and soon came to the conclusion that his figures-a1though they must be taken cum grano salts--were in the main correct. I have felt It my duty herewith to thank Mir Price for his various com munications, and to render him my con gratulations upon his great capacity for work, upon his courage and upon his perseverance,.
 "The cotton situation in the United States grows daily more disquietng:
 United States stock on March 3l: Ports ............... 6S6 900 against 1.3.0 .0U Interior ............ 409000 against ooO,UW
 Total ............. 1,O95 900 against l.;;il OO0 Remainder of crop. 915 100 against lJU9, ,000
 Total ....... .....2,070.0 GOO against 2Sf0. 00O
 W III tneSe -.Ud,ODO naI@S be sufficient at the actual prices until the beginning of d new campaign? emphasize the words at the actual prices. because since thers are no others they are bound to suffice.
 'l hold that the American spinninS which is very prosperous this year and better insured than the European indus try, in view of the exhaustion of cotton stock in the United States. vii! make CX- tensive and timely provision against tn" September receipts. without much regard n t1a hNerhc vision for Anne rican spinning from April l to August 3l amounted to 9i9.0O0 bales: in estimating it for this year at l.0,O.U00 bales, l doubtless put it at too high a fig ure. Let us suppose that Japan. etc, take no more than 75.900 bales. 'Thc oXporta- tion to Europe last year at tnls time untl the end of August: For England, 6oo.- 000 bales; for Fran,e, Io0UI tor the continent. 75l.0no bal 's. Total, l,90l ,U'~ bales.
 I presume that each of these rountrl a will take a smaller quantity that this. all though stocks upon the continent this year are more exhausted than ever. 1 therefore estimate the cxportatons from land. 3Oo.oc bales. France, i0own bales. the continent. 7m,o"0 bales. Total. l.l00,- GOO bales. That Is to say. at iUO 0pc bales less than the year before
 Cnited States should still yield For American spinning Aprl-August l.O50,- 00o bales; eXportation to Japan, etc. 75 600 bales: to England, 300O00 bales; to France. 100000 bales; to the Continent 10O.O0g bales. Total 2.225. 900 bales
 The United States very evidently can not do this. for they possess only 2.070 000 bales and that only on condition that the crop reaches ten and quarter million bales. which scarcely believe to be probable. These figures, then. show de- Ii it of lj5,0O0 bales, to which must be added 10000 bales as representing the stock which must inevitably be retained within the United States for their own etc.
 Il own that have never witnessed such a situation. [ have reduced the eXportA- ton to something well below it's normal figure: l have estimated the American at below the figures univer- sally accepted. I take as my basis d crop of ten and q quarter million bales, which certainly not will be attained. and the re- suit is that the stocks of the United States fall from l55.00o bales to below zero.
 Tt IS rumored that a very powerful group of merchants in New York has bought 4t0,C00 or 500,O00 bales of May and July. and if is asserted that there IS danger of this fact operating to lower the actual prices,
 T see the dsnger--it is great-.but in my judgment it consists only in q great and unprecedented squeeze of sellers on