New-York tribune., 1902-03-30
MENACE OF EASTERN WAR.
VETERAN JAPANESE STATE SMAN'S
PESSINIISTIC INTERPRETATIO OF
THE TREATY WITH ENGLfaND

treaty Of alliance with Great Brits in. I have
met only one japanese statesman. etired from
public life. but a man Of exception:Il erudition.
both Western and Oriental who eGfter having
we'll examined that the doors were shut. whis-
pered to me a different song. But then people
say he is an old man, who cal Is his seniIe
tiridity prudence, reproving his co untrymen for
their ''nebuous ambitions" and who is out Of
touch with the tendency Of a young nation.
He began: DO you believe that Japanese am
oltion in China is serOus-tO b the reforrner
Of the Chinese Government and the peda gogue
Of the Chinese nation in Western civilization?
Could that be possible, would II be 10 the ad-
vantage and for the benefit OF Japan?" After
this exordium he broached the subject.
Il believe" he said, the tre atty fraught with
great danger for my country. tllis danger arising
principally from the mood OF my countrymeE,
such as I know it. I beg you to read attentiveIy
the treaty. Article I carefully states. with dip
loTatiC cirCumlocutton. that Corea is Japan's
business. Article II proceeds TO say tall articles
OF a treaty, you know, must be connected to-
gether. and the one IS d sequence OF the other)
that IL Russia threatens Corea or Japanese in
terests in Corea. and Japan fights Russia. Eng
land will keep perfectly still. but will neverthe-
less try her utmost TO convince other powers to
follow he- example Article III adds that, in
case any one should be obdurate as not 10
keep quiet. and bold enough 10 hamper fair
play between Japan and Russia. then England
will join the fight. This reminds me OF our
wrestlers and Of the man with a fan in his hand
who looks TO the struggle being properly per
formed 1 have perused many political treaties
even those which not offensive and de-
fensive, but exclusively defensive-and I have
not met with an instrument thus manufactured.
You object that my observations apply
equally to England in the case Of menace or
injury to British interests which are mentioned
in the treaty as centred in China. Now what
Increases my perpleXity is this careful division
OF special interests and England stating You
mind |Orea and I will mind China Whereas
Japan would not hesitate one moment. and be
only too glad. 10 go 70 war on account Of Eng
land and 70 fight for any interest OF hers any
where in China and by whomsoever threatened.
England viii stick rigidIy TO the letter Of the
treaty when Japan shall have to fight Russia
in Corea No it would not be Punic
faith. but the dutiful behavior Of the British
Government, which considers itself the man
ager OF the peoples concern and without any
right to sentimentaltsm; practical commercial
government sir, and not chivaIrous military
government
That is not all England and Russia will
compromise and come to terms. now as before
in China as elsewhere. A greater or a lesser Rus
sian privilege in Manchuria is not worth an
English grenadier. and Russia will know how to
pave the way and soothe England by the means
OF some concession OF parliamentary and cleo
toral efficacy which may be shouted as peace
win honor over again. You object. Arti-
Gle " binding the contracting parties not 70
enter into separate arrangements without pre-
vious consultation What Of that? Consulta-
ton. mind you not delibe-ation. I ask your
advice and am free not 10 follow It, Then the
article says: Separate arrangements to the
arrangement, England would say. is not to the
prejudice OF those interests on the contrary: and
all would be said But no such behavior from
Russia 7 have alluded to can be expected
concerning Corea- It Is outlets on the sea, IT is
maritime regions. which Russa's natural
and fatal craving and tendency. Do you believe
that, knowing how Japan could become Eng
lands bulwark. Russia would not have gained
US over II she could possibly have renounced
COrea? This treaty has now freed Russia from
all hesitancy: until now she did hesitate on
account OF the unknown consequences produc-
tive Of real treaty, offensive and defensive.
between Japan and England. she Is now IN pos
session OF the very thing she wished tor-Eng-
lands neutrality. She will now be able 20 con
centrate all her work and all her power for her
single handed collision with us. and with all
the energy which to her vital interests Is added
by her hatred for US since the blood OF the
Lords anointed edo not smile, IT is so. We know
It pertinently; inquire from the meanast muJtI0-
the Cars blood. then Czareyvttch was spilled
in Japan by a Japanese sword.
You speak Of the existence Of the Russo
japanese conventions concluded when Marshal
Marquis Yamagata was Prime Minister But
you cannot deny that. although Corea has re-
matned a hotbed OF international intrigue and
Russia has given evidence Of her irrepressibIe
ambition those instruments constituted a basis
for some assurance. Do you believe in the posi-
hility under these new circumstances Of main
tanning those conventions in Corea? No, Only
TO mention the lesser reason-the very conditions
Of the English treaty IN Articles " and V as
tablish a conflict with the terms of those con-
ventons. Russia has been freed from all re-
straint. and she will feel perfectly justified in
laying the sin at door II a woman. for in
stance. has only mundane respect as moral re
straint, for Heavens sake leave it 10 her, "Tu
las voulu. George Dandin.' say the French"
He paused; his voice had quivered and be-
trayed his emotion
We are strong very strong; stronger perhaps
than IS known in Europe. We are. moreover. a
disciplined, essentially soldierly nation. Physi-
cal pain has no influence on our nerves. and we
do not dread death Our fundamental educa-
tional policy since the Restoration has been 10
infuse the spirit and the principles of the old
gentlemen knights in all the popular classes.
and we have thus brought up our army and navy
to an exceptional standard. I am convinced We
should be victorious in the beginning Our
transport resources are known, and European
military authorities have been astonished by the
rapdity OF landings. We could throw in a
few days beyond the sea seventy thousand men
to be followed within a fortnight by one hundred
and fifty thousand more (this is no mystery for
the Russians), and our navy is stronger than /