The Savannah morning news., 1902-01-14

Correspondence invited.
stantial variation shown by their fig
ures was in the years 1S99-1900, when
1t is admitted, although. the CONNER
ctal crop turned out to be 9,436, 900,
the amount of cotton actually grown.
did not exceed 100000, the balance
having come from the surplus held
over from the previous unprecedent-
edly large production. Upon the aver
age for the past eleven years, Messrs.
i. T. Wilson 81 Co estimate has
been within 100000 bales of the actual
outturn.
notwithstanding the fact that bears
violently assailed the credibility Of
Messrs. r. \. Wilson & Cos estimate
there seems no reason in my mind TO
doubt it's substantial accuracy and
every proof to which 1 can subject 1t
fully bears out the figures that they
have published they are moreover prac-
tically sustained by such authorities
as the United States government,
Messrs. Latham, Alexander & Co.,
the New York Journal of Commerce,
Messrs. J. Fl. Parker e. Co., and by
my own figures, published on the 25th
of November, which represented the
most exhaustive investigation that 1
had been up to that time able to make.
| am now prosecuting fresh inquiry
with a view of determining the COM
paratiVe stocks of cotton held at all
the Southern towns. having a popula-
ton of more than three hundred peo-
pie.
An effort has been made to dispar-
age rMessrs Wilson & Co.'s estimate
by putting emphasis upon the present
relatively large movement of cotton
which is running on scale equal to
that of last year. when the crop turned
out approximately 100000. 1 have
previously entered into an elaborate
argument to show that the movement
is not an index of the supply, but is
rather an evidence of the demand, An
analysis of the movement for the past
fourteen years, expressed in units of
thousands, is as follows:
Total in sight to Jan 1: 1878, 1894;
1882 1885; 1880, 5,445; 1901, 5,79S;
1872 6,403; 1928, 4,772; 1894, 5,42O;
1S94-5, 6,994; 1856, 1882; 1867. 6,S9S,
1878 1896; 1889, 7,725; 1890, 5,917;
1901, 6,575; 1912, 1904
Total in sight for month of January:
1878 $40; 1859, 1872; 1880, 7S0; 1901,
972; 1912, 752; 1923, SCI; 1894, IT'S;
1S94-5, 1,020; 1866, 619; 1867, 72S
1878, 1889; 1889, LILO; 1890, 5,955;
19O0-1, 9S2; 1902, 1000 (estimated).
Total in sight to Feb. 1:-1SS7-S, 1894;
1883, 5,757; 1880, 6,225; 1901, $40;
1872, 7,155: 1923 1888; 1884, 6,195;
1S945, S.104; 1856, 1851; 1867, 7,126;
1901, 1851; 1912, 1904
Percentage of total crop: 1878, S4.6
per cent; 1883, SO. per cent; 1880,
SCI per cent; 1901, 1872 per cent;
1912, 1872 per cent. 1928, 1913 per
cent; 1884, S2.1 per cent; 1S94-5 so.
puer cent. 1856, 77.6 per cent; 1867.
S1.4 per cent. 1878. us per cent;
1889 1873 per cent. 1890, 1913 per
cent; 1900-1 72.9 per cent; 1902, CD.
Total crop: 1878, 7,O17 1889, $685.;
$780, 1913; 1901, $685. 1912, 9,03S;
1929 6,717; 1884, 1850; 1S94-5, 1901;
1885, 1851; 1867, S,75S; 1878, 1920;
1889 11,275; 1890, 9,4S6; 1901, 1888;
1902, 90.
1 have estimated the January move
ment this year at 100000 bales. prob
ably in excess of the actual figures,
but assuming that we had received this
quantity during January we shall have
in sight on the first of February out
of this years crop 1904, 900.
The figures above the total crop
show the percentage of the crop in
sight up to Feb. for each year. 1t ap-
pears that the movement last year was
the slowest on record, while that of
1SS9-90 was the most rapid on record.
1t also appears that in 1895, when we
had q crop of only 100000, there was
at the end of January nearly 100000
bales more in sight than there will be
at the end of January this year, and
that heavy January movements are
not infrequently found in the case Of
exceptionally small crops. Figuring
upon the percentages given, 1t appears
that If the movement of this crop has
been as fast as the fastest of the past
fourteen years, the total production is
only s,930,000 bales. If it is as slow
as the slowest. that of last year
the crop is 10, 100000 If 1t has moved
with the average rapidity of the past
fourteen years, the crop is 9,565,000. l
believe that the movement this year.
especially since the first of January
has been one of exceptional rapidity
and / cannot, therefore, see any rea-
son, to doubt the substantial accuracy
of Messrs. r. T. Wilson & Co.'S. fig
ures.
My reasons for believing in the rapid
movement of the crop are ably stated
in circular from the Gulf Ports Trad
ing Company, of Galveston, Tex, of
January sixth who estimated the crop
nearly two months ago at 9,7e4,0 00 and
which ] herewith quote in full
"Gentlemen owing to the nuIner-
Gus inquiries addressed to us as to
whether we upheld our estimate on the
yield Of this seasons crop in the face
of the heavy receipts up to the end of
the year, we addressed circular in
quiry to almost all of the oil mills in
the entire cotton belt. To this circu-
lar we have so far received more than
one hundred and fifty answers and we
summarize their contents as follows:
The farmers have sold and moved
their cotton this year much more liber-
ally than in past years. Far less cot
ton is held by the producer now than
last year at this time. The general
tendency among the farmers all
through the cotton belt was TO sell
almost as, fast as harvested and ginned.
The same conditions prevail, as we
specially mention, in Mississippi and
Texas. but reports from some sections
of Mississippi show that there is still
some little cotton in the fields, part OF
which will not be picked on account of
bad weather The reports from Texas
show that the amount In farmers
hands is infinitely smaller than in past
years. Number of reports give the fol-
lowing reasons for the fast movement
OF the crop and the fact that lar less
cotton Is held than last year.
First. The weather all during the
fall has been very favorable for hsr-
yesting and marketing.
Second. owing 10 the very small
movement in grain. cotton seed meal
and cake the transportation facilities
for cotton have been far greater than
In past years. In only the state Of
Mississippi WAS scarcity Of cars eX-
pefienced ~ times.