New-York tribune., 1902-09-05
RATTLING FOR A MARKET
REMARKABLE COMMERCIAL SURVEY
RI AN EMINENT SrATISTICIAN-
POPULATION AS \ FACTOR IN
MERCANTILE SUPREMACY.
MERCANTILE SUPREMA
London. August "a.

..lan+ for making a column Of figures pictorial
tr+ IS 2 statlstician he has a soul above ms
..5a He is not content with compiling COM
.,e~cta' statistics for the Board Of Trade. and
drawing crude differences from percentages ol
,,orease or decrease. He reasons about his hg-
,,-ee with rhiIospofic gravity and analytical
-,,,e- and ,rovides adequate safeguards against
,ecI1ass deductions. His recent memorandum
IN t5a comparative statistics OF population, in
dus+ry and commerce in the United Kingdom
,be United States Germany and France during
.ta last thirty years embodies complete refu-
.o+;on of the current fallacy that anything and
sva-ythirs can be proved by figures. His report
an TIE industrial activity and commercial enter
r,~ise OF the four leading maritime nations is
not an armoYy where special pleaders and ig-
,,-rart demon nstrators can arm themselves with
Instruments for working out unscientfc theories
and false conclusions Whoever approaches II
with the cynical idea that any lie can be proved
nv ingenious manipulation Of columns of figures
* speedily convinced that commercial statistics
are as complex and intricate modern bat
tleship. or q power house Of electrical energy,
and that scientific investigators alone are com
petent 10 reason about them
Mr. Ernest Edwin Williams not long ago pub
Ished a series Of pessimistic articles on the de-
parting glory Of British industrial supremacy
and the swelling food of German competition
and enterprise Made in Germany was the
work Of an alarrnist and Its statements were
finally dismissed by statisticians as exaggerated
and its conclusions as half truths. During the
last two years the ghoul at the English free
trade feast has not worn the German spiked
helmet but has displayed Uncle Sans lantern
Jaws starry waistcoat and striped trousers.
American competition has been the unceasing
theme Of sensational journals, which are never
weary of forecasting the decline and fall OF Eng
lands industrial fortunes and commercial su-
prernacy. Sir Alfred Bateman neither affects
prophetic gifts nor administers cOunses Of per-
fection He complies the commercial statistics
of thirty years, and interprets them by the
scientific method Of progressive political econ
only- He considers ratios and percentages Of
increase in the trade of rival countries not as
isolated computations Of decisive importance
but as composite effects due to the cooperation
# various causes These percentages are higher
for he commerce and production of both the
United States and Germany than for England;
but the three countries were At different
levels thirty years ago. two OF them have been
travelling upward more rapidly than the third
which occupied at the outset a much higher
eminenle than the others. The comparison Of
their industries and commerce as he makes it. is
affected by considerations based upon the rela-
tive growth Of their populations and the conver-
sion Of agricultural into industrial communi-
ties.
This eminent statistic!an's method may be
readily Illustrated. He proves at the outset
that the increase Of population ir the United
States and Germany during thirty years has
been greater than the increase in the United
Kingdom. and that it has been accompanied by
a trend from country 10 town. and by the rapid
development Of manufacturing and industrial
power. These changes in relative population
must affect all commercial comparisons; and in
future the rates OF increase must be calculated
On masses Of population largely exceeding those
n the United Kingdom. The addition. for
ample, to the population of the United States
since 1870 approaches in absolute numbers the
total population OF the United Kingdom az the
present time. and the transfer OF workers from
rural to urban districts is proceeding more RAP
idly in America than in England. Both Ger
many and the United States are not only in
creasing their aggregate population but also
their non-agricuItural classes more quickly than
the United Kingdom. and will soon have a
larger Industrial population. Naturally, their
industry, commerce and manufacturing have
become much bigger things relatively than they
were. and with the larger mass Of population
and the more rapid rate Of growth they are
challenging the commercial pre-eminence Of
Great Britain under widely different conditions
than in the past. when the non-agricultural
population Of every other country was smaller
than in the United Kingdom Inevitably the
competition Of the United States and Germany
with Great Britain IN neutral markets has be
come more serious, and every year will add to
their acquired capital and skill, and they viii
have larger additions 70 their population 10
draw upon.
The bearing Of these facts upon production
and commerce IS inaccurateIy disclosed by per
centages Of increase on account of the small
ness Of the units from which the comparisons
are begun. The coal production Of the United
States has increased in thirty years 3S3 per
cent; that Of Germany. 203 per cent, and that Of
the United Kingdom, "A per cent. The quantity
OF pig iron produced in the United States during
the same period has increased 422 per cent,
that OF Germany 81 per cent, and that OF the
United Kingdom 80 per cent. \ superficial COM
parison Of these percentages seems to justify
the alarmist articles which have been appearing
in English journals: but the units are not 10 oe
left out Of account, and these were low in the
case Of the United States and Germany thrty
years ago, and high in the case OF the CnlIeo
Kingdom, and during the next generation the
comparison will start from levels closer together
The coal production of the United States now
equals that Of the United Kingdom. and the pro
duction Of pig iron is third greater IN lhe
former country. Germany has closely dP-
preached the pig iron production of Great Bit
ain, and in coal has run UP from ohe-quaFlei
TO one-half in the course OF thirty years Inc |
variations in percentages of increase from
higher units of comparison will ineVltapiS "e
less remarkable during the next thirty s-'
than during the last generation; but the IaC''
as they stand disclose the advantage "Ifeh Inv
United States and Germany are deriving lio'ii
superior growth in population and indusriai
resources An outlet has been found IN 'hese
TWO great industries for the annual increasing |