The Montgomery advertiser., 1902-01-08
Temperature and Precipitation. For selected Southern stations during 2-
STATIONS.
Neill as a Statistician.

Cotton States Reporter.
 We print in this number compilation of figures which ought to. and 1t is believed will. be read with interest by those who study cot ton crop statistics, being the crop estimates for series of twenty-one years of Henry M. Neill of New Orleans, known the world over as a cotton statistician. Presented with these is the actual yield for each of the twenty years. thus affording opportunity to com pare Mir. NeilTs estimates with the actual crop s-see ''how near the great statistician came
 A study of the figures reveals what will per- led to-. regard Mir. Neiil as consistently esti- mating from bear, point of view. in the bear interest. We have heard people inti- mate that MT. Neiiis ability and prestige were enlisted in behalf of the bears and English spinners, and assert that his estimates. taken year by year. warranted the charge We were not disposed to credit it, but that is the way man has been better abused than this sturdy Engiishman. who came over here and made the estimating of the American cotton crop Anaiysis of the record shows that in eight # sss as sso ss ssss ss7 isoo-oD so far as MT. Neiis estimates could have affected prices he might have been ciassed as "bull," for his figures were terialiy below what the crop proved to be in each of those years.
 sss-s. isss-4. Isss.e. Isss-7 isss-s. isss-so. ies3-4. isee-7 and Isss-s) and in the actual growth were so near together that he could could not be charged with & leaning either to Sui fl, or hs5eaT siae Sns W simply take guesser or calculator. Take the season of i683-S4. for example. Mir. Neil estimated 5,75o.ooo The crop was 5,7 GOO. only 37.- 900 bales less than he predicted Again in 7 Ie9S-9e. a crop of APO 900 bales. MT. Neill predicted | 800. 900. only so.ooo less than actual. output.
 The figures show. looking back over the twenty zone years, that in three of them dee2-3. ISs4-5 and 1899 900 the Nenl figures might be classed in the bear in- terest. In each of those three years the yield was materially under his estimates-336 900 one year; 349 900 another. and the enormous disparity of 2.5oo 900 bales the third. Count ing him on the "bear'' side those three years he was by parity of reasoning on the "buII'' side eight years, with a group of ten years when he was near the mark that in com mon fairness they must be classed as remark ably accurate and therefore impartial esti- mates.
 For the twenty-one years Mir. Nelrs esti- mates, added up year by year. would have made total of I75.ooo,ooo bales. The ac- tual growth was l64, ooo, 900 bales.
 It Is proper to state that the editor of The Journal does not know Mir. Neill personally never met him. has never had any business with him.
 For a number of years we have read his es- inmates of the American cotton crop listened to the comments. noted the actual crop and preserved the Neill figures. Believing fhey win possess as here presented, interest for may be said of them do not think that fairly considered they show Mir Neil to have estimated in the bear interest Moreover we think Mir. Neills place in history as the most remarkable statistician Gin his chosen feId) of the last century is secure No other is furnished in the figures we prinD behind him