Rock Island Argus. (Rock Island, Ill.) 1893-1920, 1902-08-13
Fall Prospects.

According to Henry Clews' review
of commercial and agricultural con-
ditions, nearly all advices from the
west are of an optimistic nature;
and if present expectations are re-
allied. the farmers will have much
better season than last year. From
the south, where an ample crop of
cotton is promised, the reports are
also encouraging; and the general
impression is that the entire country
will have 4 fall trade equal to if
not slightly in excess of last year.
While the crop and business situation
is satisfactory, the industrial outlook
is hardly as promising as at this time
in 1901. The unsettled condition of
labor eXerts a deterrent effect upon
new enterprises, and the increased
cost of production, which the de-
mands of labor are imposing, is
creating situation that causes
more or less anxiety concerning the
future. Profits are already declin-
ing, and the present high level of
prices make it impossible for manu-
facturers to compensate themselves
by further advances that would GER
tainly curtail production and leave
the producer in no better condition.
1t seems quite probable that the
ability of manufacturers to advance
wages has about reached its limit,
for the reason that advances in
wages now mean still higher prices
for products, which can not be OBJ
tanned under present conditions.
Meanwhile manufacturers are con-
frOnted with another problem-that
of new competition-whicf combin-
ed with new methods and small CAPT
talizatiOn, is making active head
way against the older heavily CAPT
talized concerns. Altogether, there
fore, the industrial situation will
bear some careful watching, the con-
ditions being that we are nearer n
reaction in this part of our economi-
cal machinery than is generally sup
posed. if it has not already been en-
tered. For this reason the strike
fever can not be regarded with the
equanimity that would be possible if
prosperity promised unknown con-
tinuance. With the plain intima-
tions that we are nearer a downward
turn in prices and profits, much of
the strike agitation will prove i'll
timed and injurious.
The financial outlook is unchanged.
While crops and business promise so
well there is opportunity for bearish
demonstrations. On the contrary,
the situation is such that the big
leaders might easily inaugurate a
bull campaign of greater or less du-
ration. provided monetary condi-
tions permitted. Here is the chief
obstacle. The banks are practically
loaned up to their full capacity.
There is a general feeling among the
bankers. also, that contraction is
more desirable than further eXpan-
sion. Within the year ending July
1, bank loans in the United States
have increased $685., 100000. OF
increase of banking facilities during
this period, but against this increase
in loans there was an increase in
specie holdings of only $33,000,000
and a small decrease in legal tenders,
showing a low condition of reserves.
Then, crop demands will be large
larger than year ago, when the
corn loss lessened the drain on the
banks; and mercantile requirements
will be fully up to the average, so
bankers rightly expect a good de-
mand for all available funds at
profitable rates. This situation rem
ders further gold exports of conse-
quence improbable, and the payment
of our foreign obligations will be
either deferred to a more convent
ent period or done through more
convenient channels when cotton and
grain begin to move.