Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1902-11-13
COTTON STATISTICS
NECESSITY FOR ACCURATE IN
FORMATION ILLUSTRATED.
Census Bureau Hopes to Overcome In
huence of northumberland OF
Foreign Buyers.

1l4Cic was d sunny ShC SottOii
yesterday. The price of cotton dropped. 1t
dropped for future sales as far ahead as
next August. 1t dropped at a time when
nearly half of the cotton was in the hands
of the planters and when foreign buyers
were busy getting in supplies or establish
ing prices at which they can call in these
supplies later.
The cause for this drop in price was a re-
port from Memphis prognosticator' that
the crop now being ginned would amount to
II. 700, 900 bales. If that were true there
would be a rational reason for the drop in
price because 1t would show that the crop
is 100 900 bales in excess of the normal con-
sumption of American cotton.
Accurate Statistics.
1t is claimed that this event in Wall street
shows the necessity for the work being done
by the census bureau. At the time that re-
port was received in Wall street, with the
result that the price of cotton was knocked
down, there were available statistics gath
cred by the bureau with the utmost care
showing an estimate, about as reliable as an
estimate can be made, that the cotton crop
of the present year is really but about TO-
100000 bales, or about 1,0000O0 bales less
than the estimated consumption of the year.
The fact that the supply is less than the
demand should have made the price go up,
instead of down, with the result that thou
sands of American planters all over the
south would be benefited thereby.
The recent Congress provided that the
census bureau should secure and distribute
statistics concerning the cotton crop. The
Department of Agriculture at about the
end of the ginning season, publishes its re-
port on the cotton crop, which has been
the only ,officia! publication on the subject
heretofore. The trouble about the report
of the Department of Agriculture is that it
comes out after the planters of the south
have sold their crops. 1t makes very little
difference to them then what the crop Is
except as a matter of curiosity. Their
financial interest in it has ceased except in
such rare cases that they do not affect the
problem as a whole.
Planter to Get Full Value.
1t is believed at the census bureau that
after the world at large comes to have con-
fidence in it's reports as being free from
any bias and based on the very best in
formation available they will have a very
influential tendency to steady the market
and to give the planter for his cotton all
that it is worth. For instance, the differ
enCe between and 10 cents a pound would
be over a hundred millions of dollars on
the entire crop If 1t eventually turns out
that normal conditions and a full knowledge
of the size of the crop would make it
worth 10 cents a pound, while the planter
has sold it for cents, then his loss would
be equal to that difference in the price.
The bulk of the advantage of high esti
mates of the cotton crops is secured by the
foreign trade. Those high estimates bring
down the price and the foreign market
takes two-thirds of the entire American
crop.
Organization for the Work.
During the past summer the United
States census Office completed an organiza-
ton of the cotton belt, which involved the
appointment of GIG local special agents
who are charged with the collection of
three reports of the quantity of cotton gin
ned by the ginneries within the territory
charged to them. Six hundred and twenty
six counties have thus been individually
organized, and in combination Herewith
hfty-nine more, making total of 6S5 or
ganized counties out of TO cotton-produc-
ing counties. Within this organized terri
tory 1913 per cent of he crop of 1901 was
grown.
In the eighty-fve unorganized counties
there were for the crop of 1901 only PIT
active ginneries. and of a very small capac-
ity. ginning only 63 .4S2 bales, or seven
tenths of one per cent of the crop grown in
that year. The ginneries in these unor-
ganized counties are furnished report
blanks. upon which they are requested to
make reports simultaneously with the local
special agents in the organized counties.
The census office claims ii has very COM
plete organization, which guarantees accu-
rate results. For this season the office de-
cided to make three reports-one in OctO-
Der, one in December and one at the end of
| the ginning season. The October report
| involving the canvassing of more than
10000 establishments, was begun on Octo-
Der 90, covering the cotton ginned up to
|. and including October IS; and the work of
| canvassng the establishments, forwarding
| tabulating and publishing the results was
all accomplished within seventeen days
This report gave the quantity of cotton
ginned in the United States, by states UP to
and including October Is and the f.
age of the crop ginned. as estimated by the
canvassing local agents.