The Savannah morning news., 1902-01-25

The statistical position does not favor
higher prices for the present or for
the near future as stocks are ample
in the chief markets here and abroad,
and the receipts of cotton continue on
very liberal scale.
According to the figures of the New
York Cototn Exchange, 7l15,000 bales
of our crop had come into sight to 10th
inst. From the corresponding time to
the end of last season there came into
sight. according to the New York
Chronicle, 100000 bales, and accord
ing to the New Orleans Exchange,
3 500 900 bales The New York Cotton
Exchange did not compile the in
sight figures" for last season. Should
the cotton movement hereafter equal
that of last season, the commercial
crop would, therefore, be somewhat
over 10000 900 bales, averaging about
4S3 pounds net, against the Department
of Agriculture's estimate on Dec. of
9674,00 bales, averaging 46S pounds
net. The fact is not generally known
that the departments crop estimate
was based upon the reports to ii of the
yield of seed cotton (Which contains
the seed, which are removed from the
lint by the process of ginning),
instead of the infection Cor cot
ton of commerce), as in previous years.
No one knows the reason for this radi-
cal departure from former methods,
except, perhaps the Secretary of Agri-
culture, who has declined to discuss the
matter in any way with one of the old
est firms in the cotton trade. With
many farmers there is no reason what
ever for weighing their seed-cotton,
and therefore a great many of the re-
ports sent to the department must
have been mere guesses. The quantity
of Infection obtained from 100 pounds
of seed-cotton differs with the soil,
the weather conditions and the meth
DDS of cultivation, but the statistician
of the department undertakes to as
certain correctly the average yield of
lint from seduction by some process
peculiarly his own. Instead of asking,
as heretofore, directly for the yield of
cotton, the department obtains guesses
at the yield of seed-cotton, and then
the department itself guesses in Wash
ington at the yield of Infection from
the country guesses of the yield of
seed-cotton.
There have been many predictions
recently that the receipts would soon
fall off sharply, but the cotton con-
tinues to come forward in liberal vol
ume, and it seems probable that the
movement, certainly for several weeks,
will be greatly in excess of the re-
ceipts for the same period last year.
| To the 10th inst. 100000 bales more of
| our crop had come into sight than
to the corresponding time last season.
| With even a considerably less gain
! over last years movement than re-
| Gently, it seems evident that by the
end of January the gain over last sea-
| son will be quite 100000 bales, thus
| indicating a crop of about 10000, 900,
| should the movement thereafter equal
| that of last season. The receipts after
Feb. l last season were comparatively
| large, and a smaller movement for this
| season may reasonably be expected,
unless the new crop should be unusu-
ally early and add materially to the
August receipts.
People are making all kinds of ex
plantations of the large receipts except
the most natural one-that the yield
was greater than many supposed it
would be.
while present indications would
seem to justify the expectation OF a
crop of about 10,500,000 bales about
four pounds lighter than last seasons
weights, it does not follow that prices
should not improve when receipts fin
ally fall off and stocks diminish"