The Billings gazette. [volume] (Billings, Mont.) 1896-1919, 1902-11-04
AS THE DEMOCRATS FIGURE TO-
MoRRoW's RESULT.
LOOK FOR GENERAL CHANGE
While Admitting Contest Will 81
Close, Republicans Confident OF
Controlling the House.

time the leaders OF Lne ueu1OCldIIC
congressional campaign in this city,
while declining to give figures, have
been specializing as to what the ma
jority of their party would be in the
ffty-eighth congress-, to be elected
next Tuesday. They think that they
see signs of a political overturning
such as occasionally happens in the
middle of a presidential term, and
which takes the form of an opposl-
ton house of representatives. They
neglect to note, however, that these
overturnings have always taken
place when general political condi-
tions were favorable to the opposi-
ton. The situation as a whole this
year bears no such favorable relation
to the opposition as it has done in
years of democratic victory, but set
ting that fact aside, there are two
facts which point strongly in the di-
rection of the continuation in power
OF the republicans. Both are related
to the new congressional reapportion-
ment, which goes into effect at this
election.
The house of representatives to be
elected next Tuesday will have ~
more members than the present house
ten of them coming from southern
states, and 10 from northern states.
Colorado is the only northern state
having an increased congressional
representation which gave it's elector-
al vote to Bryan; West Virginia, a
southern republican state, offsets Col
orado with a similar increase. Tho
advantage, therefore, at the outset
is nine members in favor of the re-
publicans.
There is another republican advant-
age in the fact that the legislative
readjustment Of congressional dis
trict lines in northern states has this
time been in the hands of the repub-
licans themselves, and the democrats
have not had an opportunity to per-
petuate the gerrymanders which dis
graced the reapportionment OF 1880.
The democratic victory of that year
gave that party full legislative pow
er in the states heretofore reliably
republican, at the time when the con-
gressional district lines were being
changed to conform to the 1890 Gen.
sus. The gerrymanders were SO I'M
fair and contrary to the spirit of the
law that numbers of them were ver
turned by the courts, but enough re-
NAMED in force to give the demo
Gratis a distinct advantage in repub-
lican states, notably in the middle
west, throughout the decade. That
advantage was lost in 1900, for the
legislatures of northern states which
made the last readjustment of con.
g%ressional district lines were almost
exclusively republican.
In the present house Of representa-
tives there are approximately 200 re
%publicans and 1876 democrats, with
several vacancies on both sides, caus
ed by death. A majority is 179. AS
there will be 20 more members in the
next house, 1874 votes will be neces
sary for a majority. This would com
pei the democrats to gain 3S votes
in order to control. Larger gains an(
greater changes than this have beer
made in congressional elections, bIt
the general conditions had to be more
favorable than they are at present tt
authorize them.
A careful analysis of the situation
does not appear to justify the demo
cratic claim that the next house will
be democratic. At the same time, i
is we'll to bear in mind the fact tina
in all probability the republican maj
gin will be considerably less that i
is in the present house, Whch wa
elected in the presidential year o
1900, when the Mckinley feeling wa
at its height. Broadly speaking, ii
.SpuDllSdu patty ID pioOopiy III il"
as good repute with the general pull
lie O as it was then, for PresiGen
Roosevelt, in a different way, and fl
different reasons, has %establishe
himself in the popular thought 10
degree almost equal to that attaine
by Mckinley. His personality is g
ing to affect the election neAt wee
very decidedly in a number of tn
states. But Notwithstanding this fac
the situation in New York and
PENNSYLVANIA, for reasons whio
neither the president nor the repu
lican campaign managers can co
troll, is far from being satisfactor
and the most careful estimates Inc
cota ~renuhlican losses. In PennSy