The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1902-01-19

The statistical position does not favor
higher prices for the present or for the
near future as stocks are ample in the
chief markets here and abroad, and the
receipts of cotton continue OH, very
liberal scale.
According to the figures of the New
York Cotton Exchange, 7,115,O0O bales of
our crop had come into sight to 10th
inst. From the corresponding time to the
end of last season there came into sight
according to the New York Chronicle,
3.EO9 900 bales, and according to the New
Orleans Exchange, 100000 bales. The
New York Cotton Exchange did not COM
pile the insight figures for last sea-
son. Should the cotton movement here
after equal that of last season, the COM
mercal crop would, therefore, be some
what over 100000 bales, averaging
about 4S3 pounds net, against the De-
partment of Agriculture estimate on
December of 9,674,000 bales, averaging
ass pounds net. The fact is not general
ly known that the department crop es-
innate was based upon the reports to 1t
of the yield of seed cotton (Which con-
tains the seed, which are removed from
the lint by the process of ginning), in
stead of the lint cotton Tor cotton of COM
merce), as in previous years. No one
knows the reason for this radical depart
ure from former methods, except, per-
haps. the Secretary of Agriculture, who
has declined to discuss the matter in any
way with one of the oldest, best known
and most highly respected firms in the
cotton trade. With many farmers there
is no reason whatever for weighing their
seed cotton, and therefore a great many
of the reports sent to the department
must have been mere gueSses. The
quantity of lint cotton obtained frop 100
pounds of seed cotton differs with the
soil. the weather conditions and the
methods of cultivation, but the statiSti-
clan of the department undertakes to as
certain correctly the average yield of
lint from seed cotton by some process
peculiarly his own. Instead of asking, as
heretofore, directly for the yield of cot
ton, the department. obtains guesses at
the yield of seed cotton. and then the de-
partment itself guesses in Washington
at the yield of lint cotton from the coun-
try guesses of the yield of seed cotton.
There have been many predictions re-
Gently that the receipts would soon fall
y,
come forward in liberal volume, and it
seems probable that the movement, GER
tainly for several weeks, will be greatly
in excess of the receipts for the same
period last year. To the 10th instant
200, 900 bales more of our crop had come
into sight than to the corresponding time
last season. With even a considerably
less gain over last years movement than
recently, it seems evident that by the
end of January the gain over last season
will be quite 400, 900 bales thus indicating
a crop of about 10,S00,000, should the
movement thereafter equal that of last
season. The receipts after February l
last season were comparatively large,
and a smaller movement for this season
may reasonably be expected, unless the
new crop should be unusually early and
add materially to the August receipts.
People are making all kinds of expla-
nations of the large receipts except the
most natural one-that the yield was
greater than many supposed it would be.
While present indications would seem
to Justify the expectation of a crop of
about 10, SOC, 900 bales about four pounds
lighter than last seasons weights, it does
not follow that prices should not improve
when receipts finally fall off and stocks
diminish.
ALFRED B. STEPHENSON.
New York, January Il.