The Montgomery advertiser., 1902-01-14

Figuring upon the percentages given. IL appears that if the movement of this crop has been as fast as the fastest or the past fourteen years, the total production Is only S9S0, 900 bales. If 1t Is as slow as the siowest. 1. e.. that of last year. the crop is 10, 900. If 1t has moved with the average rapidity of the past fourteen years, the crop is 9.56o.0Oo.
 believe that the movement this year, especially since the 1st of January. has been one of exceptional rapidity. and cannot. therefore, see any reason to doubt the substantial accuracy of Messrs. R. T. Wilson & Co.'S figures. My reasons for believing In the rapid movement of the crop are ably stated in a circular from the Gulf Ports Trading Company of Gal weston, Tex. of January 6, which esti- mated the crop nearly two months ago at 9.764,o and which herewith quote in full:
 "Gentlemen-Owing to the numerous in- quiries addressed to us as to whether we upheld our estimate on the yield of this seasons crop in the face of the heavy receipt up to the end of the year, we addressed circular inquiry to almost all of the oil mills in the entire cotton belt. To this circular we have so far received more than one hundred and fifty an- swers. and we summarize their contents as follows: The farmers have sold and moved their cotton this year much more liberally than in past years. Far less cot ton is held by the producer now than last year at this time. The general ten- dency among the farmers all through the cotton belt was to sell almost as fast as harvested and ginned. The same condi- tfons prevail, as we specially mention. in Mississippi and Texas, but reports from some sections of Mississippi show that there is still some little cotton in the fields, part of which will not be picked on account of bad weather. The reports from Texas show that the amount in farmers hands is infinitely smaller than in past years.
 Number of reports give the follow ing reasons for the fast movement of the crop and the fact that far less cotton is held than last year. First, the weather all during the fall has been very favor able for harvesting and marketing. Sec ond, owing to the very small movement in grain, cotton seed meal and cake and transportation facilities for cotton have only the State of Mississippi was a scar city of cars experienced at times. Third. many farmers and merchants who held cotton last year for 10 cents were badly disappointed and were forced to take about cents for their cotton. With this experience behind them they sold their cotton this year as fast as possible. t0urLn, TOT Lne reasons meuJ1Oueu unOcf No. 3, tine merchants and bankers gen. erally pushed the farmers to sell and market as fast as harvested Fifth, in some States there was a disposition cb- served to hold cotton to some degree hln- til the United States agricultural report was issued. December ,. Upon the sub sequent advance Tn the price of cotton, same was rushed to market by the farmers as never before. Sixth, in a number of States. and especially so in Texas, the farmer had to pay enor- mously high prices for feed. Corn de livercd in Texas interior towns costs about q per bushel and to meet his re- quirements in this regard and also his obligations generally becoming due Oc- tober l and January 1. he had to sell his cotton ana holding was out of the question. seventh, ocean freights have been this !;ear the lowest In perhaps ten years. which had tendency on the part of exporters to rush the cotton to the export places as fast as possible so as to Avail themselves of these low rates. This tendency was particularly conspic- son.
 /"According to the general tenor of the reports, as above mentioned, and for all the reasons stated, we do not see any cause whatever to change our. estimate of the 19o1-o2 cotton crop which was s,764,00O bales"
 In view of the foregoing. l cannot see any reason to believe that the present crop can substantially exceed Messrs. Wilson and Company's estimate and with such a supply of cotton, extreme prices for the article are inevitable later on in the season. Theodore Il. Pr1ce.