The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1902-04-16
co T TON FACTS VS. COTTON EST.
MATES.


fight has been on since the beginning
of the season between a strong bear con-
tingent made up of spot dealers and ex-
porters, and a stronger bull faction, said
to have been organized and managed by
man who was regarded as a discred
tied market leader. Crop estimates
and half bales apart. and even now,
after all the cotton has been gathered
and ginned and ninety per cent. of it
marketed there is a wide difference of
opinion as to the final figures. 1t would
seem to any reasonable and disnterested
man that this question has been def
nitely settled by the Census Depart
ment at Washington in it's report pub
lished Sunday morning, based upon in
ginners of the cotton belt, which
report confirms the November estimate
made by the Government Statistician.
Mr.. Hyde, the Government Statistician.
secured his figures direct from the cot
ton farmers, but of course at that time
more or less of the information was ne
cessarily based on ungathered crop es-
Inmates, but the census report is sup
posed to be based on actual facts gath
cred from the ginners after the. cotton
has all been ginned. But in the face of
these actual facts, the bears are still
believing or protesting TO believe that
the crop is large one About the only
evidence that they have now, or have
had during the season has been a rather
heavy January, February and March
uIes have been their slogans, and yet
these crop in sight" figures are made
up of port receipts, much of these evil
IDENTIFY .recounted; overland movement"
to New England and Canada, and South
crn mill consumption the two latter
nothing but estimates. The question would
seem to be; which is right The planters
who made the crop of cotton and made
truthful and accurate statements to the
Government Statistician, backed by the
men who ginned the cotton and made care
full and truthful. reports to the Census De-
partment, Or the Board of Trade Secre-
taries, New York publications, or bear
contingents who sit in their offices in
New Orleans and New York and send out
a lot of weekly arbitrary figures, made
up to some extent on recounted port re-
reipts, the balance being purely estimat-
ed overland shipments and local mill
consumption. But taking their own fg-
ures as to insight movement" to April
18th and figuring this with any reason
able estimate of the unmarketed part of
the crop. the showing is bad for the big
crop estimatoss.
The total ''in sight" movement from Sep
TENDER up to April II, according to the
Financial Chronicle, is in round figures
9,3S0,0O0 bales. Conservative estimates
place the unmarketed part of the crop
at not exceeding so per cent. of the I'M
marketed part of the crop at the same
time last year. Last sessions figures
show that 1888 bales were marketed
between April 18th and September 1st
Sixty per cent of this amount
which is, in the opinion Of the best in
formed men, a liberal estimate, would
make the balance to come forward this
year $4,000 bales. This, added to the
''in sight" movement as for the Financial
Chronicle, will make the crop TO- $50 900
bales. From this should be deducted at
least 100000 bales for recounted port
receipts" and overestimated overland
movement" and southern mill con-
SUMPTION. which will leave the crop
about where the troopers and the gin
ners put it, 100000 bales of commercial
weight, or about nine and a half mil
lion bales of 500 pounds each. This is
not enough cotton to last until the next
crop is made and spectators, exporters,
spinners and others just as we'll prepare
for an inevitable cotton famine.