The farmer and mechanic. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 18??-19??, 1902-11-25
THE GREAT BOOM OF THE
LAST FIVE YEARS OVER
People Begin to Stagger Under Conditions c.,eos
by Insane Greed and Unbiushing Indifference
to the Public Veal.
men of thea

,-,+rE have Deen serious over the fin
ST. outlook for some weeks. Some
faared that the liquidation, certain
tt rs boom stocks, would be sharp and
,,r7.a. producing a panic. Others be-
tho strong financiers will be able to
~.t.-r- trouble and tide over the period
- H.l5dation by making it a slow pro-
thus preventing anything like a
,,n., The United States Investor, one
the ablest papers of it's class in the
a.,rr5 gives an elaborate review of the
.usr..aI situation. 1t is SO valuable that
rehlfsh it full below:
Tho evidence is cumulative that the
,o,n3 of the last FIVE years is over.
and that a readjustment of values on
materially lower level than the present
g.. fr.zitablc. This remark is intended
IN amrIv not only to stock market spec
rrqr5op. but to industrial activity as
r,fI lt is no doubt disagreeable to
have to admit that we have reached the
-rrring point in our prosperity, but there
fl. far more to be gained by SO doing
than by refusing to look the facts in
the face. Refusing to admit the posi-
nIjtv Of an impending evil is a trait
which Intelligent foreigners have long
SINCE discovered in us. This unwill-
ingntss is not easily accounted for:
POSSIBLY it is due to the %buoyancy of
conscious strength, to sublime faith in
or ability to overcome all evils as
they arise; but possibly it is due to
sheer ignorance, to a crude and child
ieh business instinct on the part of
The American people. Be that as it
may, the fact remains that, as a ma
non. we arc always slow to recognize
approaching LANCER, and are consequently
the most surprised people on the face
Of the earth when disaster OF any sort
oycrtakeS us. 1t is far from our purpose
TO predict disaster at this time; never
1hcless. it would be the height of folly
TO attempt to conceal the fact that the
entire material situation in the United
States has assumed, in the comparatively
recent past. a more dubious appearance
Than it has worn since the latter part
of 1897. 1t is fondly believed at any
rate there is an assumed belief) that
in no event can this nation recede to
such economic conditions as prevailed
between 1898 and 1897. 1t is to be hoped
ll1j jIflS IS Il correct estimate, Dul II mas
to be demonstrated that it is. Such OPP
timisti2 views are based on the fact that
the currency policy of the nation has
been reformed, and that capital is capa-
bic Of more efficient mobilization han
formerly. These considerations are of
course entitled to great Weight; but it
must be remembered that the people who
talk in the manner just described have
merely an hVnOthqSiS -1pmGnStT3tiO lion is
as yet lacking. Other things being equal,
d sounder currency policy and an in
creased efficiency or modified capital
should have a tendency to diminish the
Intensity and duration of financial dis
turbarCcs in the future. 1t is entirely
d question of how far we can rely on
other things being equal. We have moro
scientific currency laws than we had a
decade ago, but that very fact has had
a tendency to make our bankers less
cautious than formerly. Capital can be
more EASILY modified at critical mo-
mcuts. but there is some reason to sup
rose that even more progress has oeen
made in the last five years in over-ex-
tending credit than in perfecting methods
for the mobilization of capital. Every
thing considered, there is room for doubt
as regards the theory that financial dis
tJrbaroos in the future will never as
sumo the proportions of those of the
past. However,. as we have pre-
NIousIy intimated, we have no desire to
indulge in alarmist predictions at TINS
time. In fact. we may state that, per
~soually. We entertain the hope that the
financial recession which seems to BE
before us in the very near future. VIII
NOT he comparable to the previous hard
times of the last thirty years. 1hat IS
only an individual opinion, based on the
facts Of the moment; a day may shattef
such ~hopefulncss, and cause us to view
the future in darker colors. me uh-
certainty springs from the fact that
there are several conceivable methods
Of rcadiusting the situation, and no one
is i'm n position to assert, with conh-
donro which one will be operative. II
is of course conceivable, the optlmls's
whom We have cited above to the con
trary Notwithstanding, hat the lneVl'-
ahIn rcadjustment may be accompllShco
by means of a terrific crash in Wal
street. accompanied and followed %
numerous mercantile disasters. 1t Is
sapposabIo. on the other hand, that II
may be brought about by the scientiht
application Of rapidly modified capital
that is. bv puttjng a series of props
'0T ~ RoN'iAS
under the situation until the fouhud-
tons can be repaired. Or it may DC
that the industrial situation of the ma
lo1 is. as a whole, sufficiently Sound u
De In no danger of a great crash liht
That Of 1898, or to require an artlncld
Prop. a gradual decline in commonly
prices and stock market quotations may
te all that is needed. That the BOOT
Viii be carried to larger proportion
IMAM have yet been reached, is, IN oul
opinion. entirely improbable, although
'h'Fo are still plenty of people VINO pro
less TO believe in that outcome.
VALUES MUST SHRINK.
While there may be room for a va
ii" of opinions regarding the mcth
"l Ivy which a REIMBURSEMENT of the slIua
U'h to q lower level of values IS TO d.
accomplished, there can be no qu@Stloi
j" rational minds that the time 1or re
eiJ15tmcnt has about arrived. Inc ON.
9ihS That can avert it is a general us
id wages and sal lies throughout IN
4 -~I s"d ne