Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1902-12-20
THE BELIEF IN CUBA
Expected That Reciprocity
Treaty Will Be Ratified.
CONGRESS TO RECESS
JUST THE SAME AS IN THE
UNITED STATES.
An Attempt to Form an Opposition
Party Shows Difference in
the Factions.
Special Correspondence of The Evening Star.

subjects. A marked desire exists to get
what will be called the drift of American
sentiment. If it continues friendly the fu-
ture Of several legislative enactments is
clear. If hostile current should develop
there will be a cloudy atmosphere.
The Cuban congress will take a. holiday
recess as does the American Congress.
This 1t wants both for domestic reasons
and in order to know more about the pur-
poses of the United States. Some import
ant matters of legislative enactment will be
left suspended between the house and sem
ate. One reason for this is that the con-
gressmen have not fully matured their pro-
jects. Yet they are chiefly concerned about
the course of the American Congress. Some
of the political leaders say that with the
submission of the treaty to the senate by
President Palma it should be taken up at
once regardless of what the United states
Senate may be doing. Others advise walt
ing until Washington has acted. The prob
liability is that the discussion will be going
on in Hawai- at the same time that 1t Is
going on in Washington. The course of the
American Congress is likely to be prece-
dent for the Cuban Congress
Commercial Glasses Hopeful.
In the meantime very practical evidence
that the commercial classes think the
treaty will be ratified and made effective
within a short period is afforded by the
customs figures. The importations are go
ing forward at bound Moreover, it is
known that within a week very large Or
ders have been placed with European
houses for shipments to arrive in Havana
within thirty days In some cases ships,
the refusal Of which was had, have been
chartered.
In November, as has been noted, the
costoms receipts dropped 100000 as com
pared with the same month of the previous
year. The first half of December has wiped
out this deficit and the full month will show
a heavy increase. After a new tariff be-
tween the United States and Cuba goes
into effect the imports will drop for
while and the island will have to go along
on what is has accumulated. 1t is well
prepared for this a result of the policy
of President Palma in maintaining mini
mum cash reserve and each month adding
to it; that is, with minimum
of $1,00O,O00 the minimum for the next
month is made 81, 100000.
This plan cannot be kept up Indefinitely,
but 1t has worked very well thus far, and
has put the island on sound financial
basis. The treasury today has cash sur
plus of 81, 100 COO and it will be not sur
prising if the new year is begun with
50 100000 to the good Disbursements will
reduce this somewhat, yet the government
has no extraordinary charges, and it can
with a fair degree of accuracy
toms receipts, both Immediately before and
after the enactment Of tariff
legislation, can only be guessed at, and the
guesses vary widely.
Still Acute Business Distress.
While the national finances continue in
sound condition, there is still acute dis
tress in business circles. The general view
is that four or five months will pass before
Improvement will be felt. 1t is
not uncommon now to have reported public
ly the failure of old Spanish houses whose
soundness never was questioned by the out
side world. The memorable process of
liquidation continues, and individual firms
are it's victims
The prospect of reciprocity between the
United States and Cuba has caused Euro
pean firms to hasten the process, which
otherwise might have gone on more slowly.
With a strong belief that part of their
trade Is going to be transferred to the
United States they are not disposed to
show further leniency to their Cuban debt
ors. They are shortening time credits and
on the payment of long standing
1t is surprising how tranquil
the great business public of Havana re-
mains in these trying circumstances. When
q failure is reported it shrugs its shoulders
and remarks that the losses are distributed
in England, France and Germany, and
makes no further comment. The remarks
made in England, France and Germany
are not heard in Havana.
Germany's Persistence.
It is very well understood now that, reci-
procity or no reciprocity, Germany is going
to make the most determined effort to keep
her Cuban trade. This has been increas-
ing so steadily that she could suffer some
loss and still be doing fair business. The
is made that the new steamship
facilities between Havana and Hamburg,
which have been provided as a result of in
creased trade, will be continued This gives
a notion Of Germanys persistence both in
getting and in keeping foreign trade.
The sugar crop, which will be benefited
in the event of reciprocity, is still esti-
mated at $4,000 to 100000 tons. Last
years production was $4,000 tons, and the
experts are disagreed whether there will be
any increase in this seasons crop They
are agreed that there will be no decrease.
Most of them also are Of the opinion that
ground early, till March, awaiting tariff
in the United States. But the
bankers and money loaners would be the
only ones to benefit by delay
During the holiday recess the effort will
be made to readjust political parties so
that when the congress reconvenes in jan
uary 1t will be known just what constitutes
the opposition to President Palma's admin
istration. Local conventions already are
being held, but lnere Is nothing exactly
like what would be In the United States, a
national or state convention, to adopt
platform and formulate the party doctrine.
Personalities and rival leaderships are still
COMPOUNDED with party principles. Locality
also has something to do with the stand
taken by the different leaders.
to Organize Opposition Party.
A movement now is on foot to organize
what is to be known as the republican OPP
position to Palma In the central province
Of Santa Clara. Its leaders are radicals
They are the "outs." The ''ins," who are
the republican senators and representatives
from that province, decline to join the OBJ
position. They form sort of an inde-
pendent group, but they are with the adj
on most questions.
The Havana nationals are in disaccord
with the nationals of Santiago province As
the nationals control both these provinces.
politically speaking. IL they were together
they would prove very strong factor.
But Senator Bravo Correoso, the leader of
the Santiago nationals, has declined to
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