The Montgomery advertiser., 1902-10-28

THE LOWER HOUSE.
The New York Herald's Estimate Of
Situation.
Fifty-eighth Congress.
w York IJaroId's estimate.

ASh SSh5AS~S'
New York Herald's estimate:
Rep. Dem. Doubtful.
House ;. :. :. 200 Ill Is
Senate :. :. :. =. :. 81 35 8
The New York Herald printed non
partisan poll of the forty-ive States,
which will elect 1856 members of the House
Of Representative for the Fifty-eighth
Congress.
The poll shows that the Republicans
WHY probably be able to control the. organ-
narrow majority. To win the control
the Republicans must elect 1874 members.
The Herald returns give them 200 The
returns also show that there are III dis
triets reasonably certain for the Dem
ocrats and fifteen doubtful districts.
The margin for the Republicans is.
therefore, exceedingly close and hard
luck in the closing days of the campaign,
few mistakes or tendency, however.
slight. of independent voters toward
democracy may wipe 1t out. The turn.
over from the congressional elections of
1900. when the Republicans elected forty
six more Congressman than did the
Democrats. Is tremendous one. The
majority Is almost wiped out. and geu-
eral Democratic drift in the East. accom-
panied by a heavy vote for Coler in New
York, approaching the 111,0Oo majority
which Cleveland received in 1892, would
sweep 1t away entirely giving the Demo-
Gratis control.
Chairmen are Guarded.
The statements of the chairmen of the
congressional campaign committees of the
two parties reflect The Herald's estimate
of the closeness CT the result. Chair
man j. w. Babcock Of the Republican
committee will not give out figures of HIS
expectations till the end of next week,
but 1t Is known privately that he expects
majority of fifteen in the next House.
For publication he will only say that more
Republicans will be elected than in lsss,
when the majority was thirteen, but
fewer than in 1900. Chairman James M.
Griggs, on the Democratic side, will only
say that he expects the next House 10
be Democratic by good working major
ity, but he compares the present cam
paign with that of 1890 when the Demo-
cratic ma jority was 1850
The Herald in estimating the general
characteristics of the situation lays
special stress on what it terms the social
istic sentiment which Is manifesting itself
in the appearance of many labor parties
and labor candidates, which are all more
or less allied with Democracy in much
the same way that the Populistic move
ment was in 1892. The Difference, 1t
points out, is that this movement is in
the East and in the middle West instead
of in the West. Connecticut and Rhode
Island and some parts of New York state
are mentioned as especially affected by
this tendency.
Effect of the Strike.
The coal strike is called a very i'm
portant factor, and The Herald processes
certainty that had not the strike been
settled the States of New York Connect
cut New Jersey. Ohio and Indiana would
all have been carried by the Democrats.
Concerning the tariff the position is taken
that the moderate revision policy Of most
of the Republican leaders is all that has
prevented a stampede of the voters to
Democracy.
The Herald's poll shows that the Demo-
Gratis have made their gains not by any
sweep that is impending, but by picking
up districts here and there. This they
have done through the ebbing of the Re-
publican tide. For instance, in the CEN
trail western States there is anticipated
in each of the States Illinois. Indiana.
Ohio and Wisconsin, and a probable loss
of one each in Iowa and Michigan.
The estimate for Illinois 10 that al least
fourteen of the twenty-five representa-
tives will be elected by the Republicans.
and that the entire Republican State
ticket will be elected, with the possible
exception Of Manner, candidate for clerk
of the Supreme Court, whose personal
unpopularity will tell heavily against him.
mis- result. however, cannot be achieved.
according to The Herald. with anything
like the majorities Of 1900 and not over
half the &c. 900 majority which was given
Mckinley then can be expected this
year. The weakness and scandals of the
state Republican administration and the
disorganizatlon of the Democratic Party
in Cook County are given as the most i'm
portant State elements influencing the re-
suit in addition to the factors of national
character. gf5