New-York tribune., 1902-09-26
THE FUTURE OF IRON AND STEEL

Mr. Archer Brown talks about the prospects
Of tbe iron and steel industries in THE Engi-
neering Magazine" for October in an exceed
! ingly bonefrl tone He is convinced that the
/ sunl,Iv of ore suitable for making steel by the
/ Rnssempr process is so ample that the success
| sors of the present generation will not need to
curtaiI their production for fear that the mines
| will give out. Concerning the ores which can
be utilized by the basic process he IS even more
| confident Much depends, Of course on having
plenty of coke for the blast furnaces; and some
soft coal cannot be converted into coke But
| those fields which yield good coking coal are
so extensive that "a rate Of consumption many
times greater than the present could go on for
generations without raising the first question
"of exhaustion Moreover, American coke Ike
most of the American iron ores, is cheaper than
the foreign article with which it must compete
Thus the industry on this side OF the Atanuc
still enjoys double advantage
Whether the people of this country are going
10 buv as much iron and steel during the next
few wears as they want just now is point on
which Mr. Brown speaks with caution. In dis
cussinp that nhase Of the subject he is dealing
with possibilities only, and not ascertalned
facts. AT present the United States is turning
ont more iron and steel than England and Ger
many combined, and is obliged 10 import large
quantities from Europe TO meet the require
ments Of manufacturers. This is a phenomenal
situation such no one would nave dared 10
predict ten years ago. Nhether the craving Ior
metal will soon be satisfied and begin to abate
;s q thing which "The Engineering Magazine
writer does not even attempt TO guess Incl
dentally however, he refers TO the possible IN
fuepce of the "steel trust" and tarln changes.
He is satisfied that there cannot De mohopoly
s-g 10
-inctIv commepds the United States Steel Cor
poration for keeping prices steady ana moderate.
As for lowering the duties on iron and steel,
Mr. Brown exnects Congress to pursue a let
alone nolicy for a while longer. He believes that
tho ministry does not now need protection, and
thinks that the majority Of manufacturers are
Indifferent ..except as tariff changes might in
.iuriously affect the general business situation,
now prosperous to degree never beIore
noticed I'm the United States or any other
country" On the whole however, ne expects
marked changes in quotations, elther from
the exactions of the producers or Legislation IN
Washington.
One of the most surprising developments OF
the last year or two in the steel and iron trade
is the marked dminution in expectation. so
large was the quantity of metal and metal
goods sent abroad in 1899 and 1900 that some
thing like panic was created III Europe
Little or nothing besides agricultural 1mple-
ments. machine tools and other highly finished
speciaties have gone across the Atlantic for the
last few months. Two years ago the consump-
tion Of iron and steel in this country was 30 per
cent of its production. Just now 1t is 100
per cent. For so short a time this is
radical change. But Mr.. Brown is confident
that the export trade will revive. He does
not look for sudden resumption ana is
not so sanguine Americans on this
point, but he is sure that good foreign mar
ket will be found again. England and Ger
many he says, are now in better condition TO
face competition than two or three years ago,
since they have reduced wages and buy raw
material cheaper. Before America can 1ecoyer