The Birmingham age-herald., 1902-08-24
Estimates of Both Sides in Gu-
 bernatOIiaI Contest AnaIyzed
AS ID VOTE OF POPULISTS
A Second Primary Will Probably Have to Be Held to Decide the candl- dacy for Offices Other Than
 That of Governor.

Every man has his rates of discount. Some men have small rates and some have great The politician is classed with the latter.
 Just on the eve of tho trial of the pri- mary system in Alabama we find both contestants for governor claiming a vic tcry by fabulous msjorities. The Jelks followers concede to Johnston but two counties-Covington and St. Clair. Ac- eording to the published claims. by coun- ties, Governor JellSs will nave a majority of S5 5o52. On the other hand, the mana gers for Captain Johnston claim all but thirteen counties-unlucky number. They ccncede to Governor Jelks Dallas, Greene. Lawrence. Russell and Sumter, while they place Dale Limestone, Lowndes. Madison, Monroe. Pickens, Randolph and Taliadega fin the doubtful column. Jelks claims Jefferson by 1900 sjority. Johnston claims Jefferson by 2000 majority.
 Certainly somebody is making n hope less prediction or else thls same person has necctsa sarily a very heavy rate of dis count. With such conflicting claims 1t NC uld be merely gues swork to predict winner in the contest tomorrow. The most careful study of the situation, however, leads me to believe that the bettors should lay some odds on Jelks. In arriving at this conclusion, one must simply take up the reports from all sec tons of the state and make a personal discount vote. If you read the reports that come from the towns of the state it appears that Governor Jelks will prove an easy winner. But the Johnston lead CTS are looking to the rural precincts for their heaviest majorities, and 1t seems after all that upon the size of this rural vote depends the result of the contest. It appears possible that beavy rural vote may nominate Johnston At the Johnston headquarters there Is informa- tion that the country vote will De heavy. and 1t IS upon this information that Johnstons claims for the state are based.
 On the other hand, the Jelks managers say that their candidate will get a fair
 division of the qualified country vote. | They 10 not credit the suggestion that
 members of the pcpulist party will be
 permitted to come into the primaries on
 Monday, and they have not hesitated to say that their precinct managers have been authorized to challenge such vot CTS. It may be that these challenges VIII prove successful, and keep down the vote. In such event 1t appears to be an easy Jelks victory
 To more fully set forth the case. take Colhoun county to illustrate. Beth fac lions are claiming this county by about 1000 majority. The populist party in the county has resolved to disband and par ticipats in the democratic primary. The Johnston men claim that they will be btncflcidries of thls vote. The Jeiks ad- herents say these voters are not quail fled under the ruling of the state com mttec. and that they will consequently be challenged If voters who have for merly participated with the popuists and republicans are permitted to vote unchallenged the estimated Jelks ma jorities vIll be greatly reduced and possl- bly, overcome This is an unbiased view of the situation.
 The total vote n the primary is vari- ously estimated at from 900 to 120,00O. The following is an estimate of the vote by congressional districts as furnished from the headquarters of the Jelks sup porters last night: