The Bolivar County Democrat., 1902-11-08
Cotton Crop Estimates.

Below will be found an interesting ar.
ticlc, copied from q recent Issue of the
New Orleans Picayune, relative to the
estimates of this seasons cotton crop, as
lately made by numerous so-called cx-
perts. As the Picayune well says, these
eitimatcs at best are mere guesses and
but small reliance may be put In them
For instance, note the wide range be-
tween the highest and lowest estimates,
a maximum of 100000 and a mini
mum of 9, $50, ,0OC,-a difference of only
2,25o, 900 bales. Ncill, ofNew Orleans,
comes out with the top figures, while the
government reports short crop. Fol
| lowing is the Picayune s timely comment:
| The season is now at hand when cot
ton crop estimates are now in order.
Already several Of the more prominent
authorities have given their opinions, or
rather prophecies, to the world, and the
balance, both great and small, will
doubtless follow thick and fast. A few
days ago Mr.. Buston, who has been very
fortunate for several years, issued al,
estimate of II 100000 bales minimum.
About the same time Mr.. Theodore H.
Price, of New York, Issued all estimate
which may be construed as pointing to
| loh
100000 bales maximum. Yesterday
Mr.. Henry Neill, the oldest and best
known of all the cotton authorities,
published an estimate of from IL 500, ,O0C
to 100000 bales, the smaller figure
being no donbt the minimum to be ex-
pected. Yesterday also the Census Br-
i:eau issued a report showing the amount
of cotton ginned up to Oct Is, repre-
senting, so it was said, COL per cent of
the total crop. While no estimate is
made, this percentage points to crop
Of about 100000 bales.
Here, then, is great variety Of opin-
ions, so that TIE trade, instead of being
aided to foim some definite idea of the
yield is more mysti6ed than ever. Past
experience has proven most conelusively
that all estimates are mere guesses,
sometimes successful, and as often SO far
out of the way as to look ridiculous
when reviewed after the season is past.
The popular idea as to the crop is neith-
er as low as the lowest of the estimates
given out this yea1, nor yet as large as
the big estimates. About month ago
there was disposition to accept small
crop estimates, but at the present time
it is believed that the crop will run some
what ahead of last years yield.
All the facts known as to the progress
of the crop warranted the fear. that the
crop would scarcely reach last seasons
opened That the yield had been injured
by the excessive drought during the
growing season. scented certain. Since
September, however, we hove experience
ed season of almost perfect weather
| with ample moisture and with mild,
open fall, with not sufficient ftost up to
date to do material injury. These con-
ditions have, it is claimed. greatly bene-
fitted the crop, permitting top crop to
be made and the saving of a good deal
of late cotton that might not have ma
ktured under less favorable conditions.
A date has now been reached when, even
if frost does occur, it will likely do a
minimum of damage. AS a result OF
these conditions, the general trade esti-
mate of tn. crop has been raised, and a
somewhat larger crop than last season
is expected, although there are still
many believers in a short crop. Few,
however, in this country are prepared to
entertain estimates of over eleven million
bales, or even that figure, although it
certainly does not look so startling now
as it did a month ago.
In specializing on the size of the crop
people are apt to overlook the equally
important matter ofconsumption. Last
season, while there existed much differ
ence of opinion as to the yield all were
agreed that the consumption would b:
Esmall AS matter of fact, the crop was
a compromise between the extreme fig
ures, while the consumption, to the sur
prise of all, was large. This year there
has been so far general tendency to
look for email crop, although the dis
position is row being rapidly modified
In the matter of Consumption, but small
interest has developed, although there is
every indication that it will provs
larger than last year if the available
supply of cotton permits. 1t will really
require full crop to meet consrmptivt
requirements and maintain stocks at 6
normal figure. Such being the case
{, there should be nothing disturbing II
the contemplation of yield as large az
eleven million bales, although few people
expect as much as that.