Evening star., 1902-01-31
ESTIMATES OF POPULATION
DIRECTOR MERRIAM ARGUES THAT
CALCULATIONS ARE INACCURATE.
Comparison of Directory Estimate,
Votes Cast and School Census With
Actual Enumeration.

The director Of the census has made the
following announcement relative to the
methods of estimating populations
T., The published results of the twelfth CEN
sus giving the population of the United
States have been generally accepted as
trustworthy and correct. But. IN a few
cities the. officials or the press, dissatisfied
chat thescsunt ifell short of their expecta-
tions and predictions. have challenged its
accuracy. These criticisms have usually
been made in good faith. and wherever
sufficient evidence in support of them has
been offered they have been carefully In
vestigated by the census Office. For the
most part they have rested upon diScrep-
ancy between the census figures and a di-
rectory estimate, the vote cast at recent
election. the .eity's prior rate of growth or
the number of children of school age report
ed by a state school census. In considering
the weight to which such objections are en-
titled the census Office has examined thor
oughly the average accuracy of such esti-
mates with results stated in census bulletin
No. 1885, which has just appeared.
The study has been confined for the most
part to the seventy-eight cities having at
least 50OoD Inhabitants. 1t shows that in
half these cities the per cent of increase of
population, 1S96-1900, was not within 16 of
the per cent in the same city, 1SSo-l9OO, a
result due mainly to the sharp check in the
rate of growth of large cities during the
last ten years. The per cent of increase for
all these cities, taken collectively, 1SS0-1S9O,
was 46.S, and 1S90-1900, it was 325. This
shows the impossibility of estimating the
population of a city under existing condi-
tions from it's rate of growth between the
two preceding censuses.
Estfmates of Population.
1.-The path usually followed in estimating
the population of a city is that taken by the
city directory, which often prints its guess
in the predatory note. These guesses have
been compared with the results OF the GEN.
sus and in every case but one. in 1890 or
1900. the directory estimate was found to
large. In two-thirds of the cases the direc-
tory was over 10 per cent, and in nearly
one-third it was over 20 per cent in excess
of the census count.
Probably directory publishers as class
tend to include year by year a larger pro-
portion of the city's population Probably
also a larger proportion of the city's bust
ness population is coming to reside in sub
urbs, and thus directory count of the bus
iness population is becoming less accurate
index of the resident population reported by
the census.
--se Vote is Not a Good Basis.
'As basis for estimating the population
of city the vote cast is little, IL any, bet
ter than the directory count In Albany.
Columbus and Dayton there were less than
four persons to vote at the last presi-
dental election;. in Fall River there were
more than nine persons to each vote, and in
Atlanta more than seventeen. '@'e
- The school census. If accurate. is better
than either Of the other three methods ex-
arrlined But 1t Is so frequently inaccurate
that the method can seldom. IL ever, be
used with confidence
1T is now recognized that counting is
mere accurate than guessing. and for that
reason It has supplanted the simple and
cheaper method In almost universal use
a century ago. The first step away from
simple guessing was to count some unit
such as Inhabited houses, Deaths births.
school children or votes. and on this plat
form to hazard a guess. This was a long
step In advance Of simple guessing but is
not to be compared for accuracy with, a
thorough count, To challenge census
with estimates Is like trying to. appeal
from a higher to lower court. Persons
wishing to see IN more detail the evidence
on which the foregoing statements rest are
referred to census bulletin No. 1885,"