Yorkville enquirer. [volume] (Yorkville, S.C.) 1855-2006, 1902-02-12
stiseellameulls &eadima.
THE COTTON SITUATION.
Interesting Review by Alfred B
Shepperson.

Interesting Review by Alfred b
Shepperson.
For the past three weeks the re-
ceipts from the American crop have
been the dominating feature of the
New York market, and, indeed, Of al
the leading markets Of the. United
States and Europe. During this time
the fluctuations in spot cotton and ir
futures" have been within narrow
limits, and the closing prices today fol
spot cotton here and in Liverpool are
exactly the same as on January Il
while New York futures" are one to
three points (hundredths Of cent? high
er for the active months Of the season
Notwithstanding the predictions from
many quarters Of q falling off In he
ceipts, the movement of our crop fol-
the week ending January 81 was 10000
bales more than for the corresponding
week of last year. During the five
months of the season ending on the
31st of January, 7,976,0OO bales Of our
crop came into sight, being $4,000 bales
more than for the corresponding pc
riod Of last season. In my article IN
The Manufacturers Record Of Janu-
ary 16, I wrote that it seemed evident
that by the end Of January the gain
over last season will be quite 100000
bales, thus indicating crop Of 10,SOO,-
900 bales, should the movement there
after equal that of last season. The
movement Of the crop after January 81
last year was unusually large, being q
S26. 900 bales to the end Of the season,
against 2,444,O00 bales during the same
period in 1899, when the crop was H.
256, 900 bales. Mr.. Henry M. Neill still
adheres to his belief in a crop Of over
II. .0OO, 900 bales, and under date Of jan
uary 81 sent to a prominent firm here
some careful calculations in support of
his views. On the other hand Mr.. The
odore H. Price issued a few days ago
very elaborate document Of SO pages
to demonstrate that the crop would be
only 9,440, 900 bales. Mr.. Prices effort
was apparently case Of "love's labor
lost" as it failed to have the desired
effect on the market; indeed prices de-
clined on the publication.
The stocks In the interior towns Of
the south, from which statistics are re-
ceived weekly by the cotton exchanges.
are about IL per cent. less than year
ago. If the same per centage should
apply to the quantity in the other In
terror towns and on the farms, then
the receipts from now to the end of the
season would be about 100000 bales less
than last season. 1t has been persist
emily claimed for some weeks that the
stocks Of cottonsin the small uncount-
ed towns in the interior and on the
farms are very much less in compari-
son with last year than In the interior
towns from which statistics are re-
ceived. The steadiness in the market
| in the face Of the large receipts has
been largely due to these statements.
The movement Of the crop does not
support this contention, for, notwith-
standing the large receipts at the ports
and large shipments from the interior
| by railroad to northern mills, the total
stock at the interior towns which re-
port to the exchanges, was $4,000 bales
on January 81, against 626.00O on jan
uary II, and $4,000 on January 10.
In view of the unusually large re-
ceipts after February 1, last season,
1t is not reasonable to expect 80 large
movement this year. If we estimate
the diminition in receipts by the small
er stocks compared with last year In
the interior towns which report to the
exchanges, a crop Of about 10,500,OO0
bales would be indicated.
During the past week bad weather
has been general throughout the south,
with heavy rains in Alabama, Missis-
sippi, Arkansas and Tennessee. The
muddy roads resulting therefrom have
doubtless interfered and will continue
to interfere with the hauling Of cotton.
The receipts, especially at the interior
towns, for the week ending February Z
should, therefore, be considerably less
than for last week, though probably as
much as for the corresponding week OF
last year, when $4,000 bales came into
sight. The movement so far this week
has been light, but the falling off has
been generally ascribed to the bad
roads in the south, and the market has
continued dull, with very trifling fiuc-
tuations. Bulls" and bears are alike
waiting for further invitation from Its
movement of the probable size Of the
crop. Whatever may befall others who
have published their estimates Of the
crop, it should be gratifying to Mr..
John Hyde, statistician of agriculture,
and Mr.. Theodore H. Price (whose es-
innate is scarcely a week old) that
their anticipations respecting the final
outcome of the crop will undoubtedly
be realized before the end of the sea-
son. Mr.. Hyde's crop is practically In
sight. He has distanced Mr.. Price
somewhat in the race, as his estimate
amounts to only about 100000 bales
of present weights, while Mr.. Prices
estimate is for 9,44O,OOO bales.
To January 81 there had come into
sight, according to the New York Cot
ton exchange, 7,976.OOO bales.
The southern mills will take from the
interior during the season about l,S5O,
900 bales, and as three-fourths os their
cotton is taken by January 81. they
have already taken about 1,3SS,OO
bales.
The above 7,976,OOO bales include for
southern mills only 900, 900. bales, leav-