The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1902-04-21
Special to The Globe.

Special to The Globe.
NEW YORK. April 2O.-There has been
decided increase in speculative activ-
ity during the past two weeks. This
could not b. entirely attributed to the
Louisville & Nashville incident though
that may have been the stimulating fac
tor. The principal cause has been the
prCspe ctive Improvement in monetary
conditions. Local bank reserves may be
low just now, but the turning point has
been reached; currency will soon return
from the interior with increasing free
dom, relieving the loan situation from
fear of natural stringency for several
months to come. Very likely the money
market will now work along fairly COM
fortably until the crop movement begins;
assuring, of course, that no seriously
untoward events occur during the next
three months. The effect of the recent
Russian and British loans upon the inter
national financial markets can be fairly
measured. The former is not factor Of
Importance; the latter will be Issued so
gradually as not to produce any material
disturbance. Possibly at later date we
may export fair amounts of gold to Eu
rope on account of American investments
in consols, but in view of our large sup
Div of COLL and the increasing production
of the same, this need cause no uneaSi-
less. The approach of peace, more
ever, n South Africa Will stimulate the
production of gold in that quarter, and
so tend to divert demand from this sec
ton; the worlds money markets thus
being in an easier condition than for
some time past.
Repeal of the War Tax.
A very important event from the Amer
lean point Of view was the repeal Of the
war tax bill imposed at the outbreak or
the war with Spain. This repeal OF SUI
perfiuous taxes Will, of course, check the
nah
had been q serious financial menace ever.
since the war closed. The only effectual
means hitherto of releasing funds with
drawn unnecessarily by taxation was by
the purchase of bonds; a most objection
able method because it constantly d.
minished the basis of national bank Cir
culation, and so forced a further ultimate
contraction of the currency; to say moth
ing of the folly of the government paying
unnecessarily high prices for its own
bonds. The repeal of the war taxes,
therefore, removes a serious element of
disturbance, which had 1t been allowed to
continue, would sooner or later have in
volved the country in fresh financial
spasmS. The avoidance of such con-
tingency is a distinct aid to confidence.
Morgan Is In Control.
The Louisville & Nashville episode has
developed another very important fact;
viz, that Mr. Morgan is in complete con-
troll Of that system With masterful sa-
gacity he has evidently measured the
troll in the spread of the concentration
movement, and with admirable tact has
accomplished his purpose without danger
Gus friction After the eXperk 9nceH
year ago attending the struggle for con-
troll Of Northern Pacific there was ma
tural!y very serious apprehension OF
trouble by those who best understood the
consequences of such contests and the
possibilities Of their reception. The re-
moval of this danger has immeasurably
strengthened the financial situation and
invited renewed activity. These two fac
tors then-Cne improved monetary condi-
tions and the passing Of Louisville &
Nashville under Morgan controls Sem
to have been the signals for revival
Of speculative activity, which promises
to continue for some time to come Many
of the big leaders have returned from
their Southern trips; the large holders
are known to- be favoring an upward
for desirable investments, which are
scarce and firmly held; trade conditions
are good railroad prosperity appears un-
checked and so far crop conditions are
satisfactory.
South African Situation.
When the Boer war is over, and the
waste of about 500 900, 600 yearly stopped,
this country will be the better off, so will
the army of about 10000 men, a large pOr
ton of whom will be released for pro-
ductIVe employment, possibly in South
Africa. Under such conditions it is not
surprising that some of the restless spirits
who have acquired large wealth may wish
to distinguish themselves in the stock
market. Conservative operators may not
approve Of all their actions, but they
are not likely to do otherwise than quiet
ly encourage an upward movement in
the market in spite Of the high level of
prices.
For such reasons I anticipate a much
more active market. Sharp Irregularities
are likely to occur because the situation
is not as satisfactory as year ago and
realizations must follow; yet there are
present all the ele ESeSS necessary to ac-
tive speculation, in which the railroads
are entitled to a decided preference. The
industrials should be left severely alone.
A good harvest would insure another year
of general prosperity. A partial failure
would produce unwelcome results.
Henry Clevyc