The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1901-06-24
F0SsI BILITY OF GOOD EXPORTS Is
CONSIDERED REMOTE AT
PRESENT
BUSINESS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE
Movement in Cotton and Wooden
Goods Was More Active Last
Week Than for Some Time
Previously

In his weekly review of the condition
of the New York stock markets, Henry
Clcws says: The stock market has been
under the influence of apprehensions of
poor bank statement and closer money
Sucn fears induced more or less realiza-
ton of prontS and encouraged traders to
manipulate for lower prices. Bank re-
serves are very low and might easily
reach the exhaustion point in case Of
too large an expansion of loans. Gold ex-
ports also caused some concern, and as
preparations for July settlements and dis
burSements are i'll order, caution in re-
gard to the money market until the end
of the month is simply necessary pru-
cence. After that date there may be less
reason for anxiety and comparatively
easy rates can be anticipated until the
crop movement asserts itself, a period
six or eight weeks distant. 1t is we'll to
remember, however, that the important
deals with which the public are familiar
may lock up or release large sums at
any time Such transactions would cause
sudden contraction or expansion of loans
and affect the reserves accordingly. The
reduction in the discount rate of the I'M
perial Bank of Germany, following that
Of the Bank of England in the previous
week demonstrates an easier condition
Of affairs in the European money markets
and lessons the probability Of gold ex-
ports the moderate amount IF gold sent
to Germany this week revived attention
to the unsa tisfactory business conditions
in that country, but these are unlikely
TO have any immediate effect here. No
important demand upon our stock of gold
is in prospect. and with increasing sup
plies from the Klordike and the Trans
Vaal, the question Of our money market
being seriously disturbed by gold ship
ments reed not yet be seriously discussed.
The continued heavy excess Of exports
l, Fr,Vrs III
10 US in the international exchanges. In
diCatiOns point to a continuance of these
conditions, for we are approaching the ex-
port season, and both gram and cotton
bills will soon be in better supply. Just
now the United States is in a position of
wonderful financial strength; being fully
able to meet not only its own unpre-
cedented requirements. but also to afford
Europe the helping hand and so stave off
disaster.
AS soon as the present efforts for de-
preston Of values are over the market
may be expected to ENJOY a reasonable
recovery III the event of easy money.
While this is not the season to expect
activity under ordinary conditions, still
the situation is such as to require close
watching, fer sharp fluctuations in the
leading stocks may occur when least ex-
pected. Values are still chiefly under
control of the community of interest"
4IGd winch Is YET III process ol GNOlullOu
The closer relations developing between
St Paul and Union Pacific place the
market where it was when led by the
Northern Pacifc-Great Northern and
Burlington deal and remove it from the
panic disturbance which followed the lat
ter. The community of interest idea
is now stronger than ever; for the North
ern Pacific quarrel simply showed the
strength OF both sides and effectively
demonstrated the necessity of harmonious
relations By this process of unifcation
three great transC0ntinental routes are
being developed: the Great Northern
Northern Pacific and Burlington route;
the Union Pacific-St. Paul and Missouri
Pacific, with their Vanderbilt connections
and the Pennsylvania-Atchis and Rock
Island route. These arrangements make
permanent through connections between
the Atlantic and Pacific oceans; and,
with the great future development of
commerce with the Orient, where two
thirds of the worlds population is to be
found, no. to speak of our own growth,
the Pacific coast and its connecting roads
are sure to be an important factor. Our
ShreWdest railroad managers appreciate
the greatness of such opportunities, and
are actively preparing to secure their
share of this new commerce and its de-
mands upon American industry and cap
itaI.
For an indefinite period, therefore, the
market IS likely to be influenced by
these negotiations, ris ng ard falling &C
cording to the prospects of success and
failure. AS these gentlemen are not
likely to show their hand, except at
their own convenience all reports of
their dOingS and conclusions will have
TO be accepted with certain degree Of
reservation. Ordinary influences affect
ing the market are of favorable ma
ture. The crop situation cen inues good.
and a big wheat crop means good times
for the farmer. Railroad earnings main
tain their large increases with surpris-
ing steadiness. General business is in
excellent shape and there is every pros
pet o. a good fail trade. Even the tex
tile trades which have been the slow
est TO respond, are feeling the touch of
prosperity, and both cotton ard wooden
goods last week were in better demand
than for many months. In the iron trade
the activity sill far surpasses all rec
ordS; and, If iron is to be considered
the best trade barometer, the country
must indeed be prosperous; a fact
which the most confirmed pessimist
must concede Another important ele-
ment Ct strength is the great activity
Of good investments; many of the old
time securities having been entirely
Withdrawn from the market. The va
rious deals of one sort or another have,
1t is estimated. withdrawn from the
market ever eco, 900 Of securities dur
ing the last two years. How far this
sum has been made good Ey return of
securities from abroad and by new is
sues it s impossible to calculate, but
everyone knows that the supply of de-
sirable investments is exceedingly linn
tied except at almost prob .bitive prices.
If this condition is not relieved, specu-
latiye activity will be forced into other
and probably less desirable channels; but
this is a situation that can be met when
1t comes. At present the general mar
ket is IN good condition, ana with heavy
July disbursements close at hand the
prevailing influences would be favorable
to a higher market wers It not for the
monetary Situation. This, as intimated
above, may prove to be the controlling
feature. Tight money would debar any
important prolonged bull campaign.
An Empirical Report
From the Chicago Journal
During one of the expeditions in the
ba lof I