The times., 1901-04-08
Circulation Statement.
The Confusion in the Orient.

Poth alarming and pacific reports and
opinions were developed yesterday at
the chief centres of Chinese news, and
it depends upon which set were reliable
whether there is to be war or peace III
the far Orient The most optimistic
view Of the situation is taken IN the
Administration circle in Washington;
but that does not impress one deeply,
because optimism is chronic with the
White House and the State Department
However. it seems at the hour of writ
ing TO be an even toss between the
conflicting opinions as to which is most
likely to be right.
one question. which may be settled
by our late cable news this morning.
is Of supreme Importance to an intel
ligent conception Of what may be i'm
meGiately expected. 1t is this: Had
japan received the note identical with
that delivered 10 Mr.. Hay by Count
Cassini before the announcement was
made from Tokyo that an ultimatum
was about TO be presented to Russia?
Our Foreign Office people are satisfied
that il had not been received, and that
have been one of general assurance
despatched several weeks ago. This
theory may be the right one, but even
then it is as yet by no means certain
that the latest Russian presentment
viii placate Japan.
The statement alleged to have been
teleeraphed from Pekin Saturday, 10
the effect that the Russian Minister at
the Chinese capital had severed his Of
fetal relations with the Chinese Peace
Commissioners. if true. would tend fur
ther 10 complicate matters, as it would
indicate a disposition to press China
automatically if not in more serious
way. Then we have a story that con-
siderable fight has occurred in Man
churia between three Russian regi-
ments and a large force Cf Chinese sol
diers, in which the latter were routed
with slaughter. If these statements are
corroborated it is a fair inference that
Japan viii demand something more
tangible than polite assurances TO bring
her to a state OF acquiescence in the
Russian position. The danger still re
mains that Japan, believing that war
with Russia must come sooner or later,
may decide to try the issue now in
stead Of waiting until her adversary
can secure the full advantage Of the
Trans Siberian Railway.
As was to be expected, General Chat
fee was overruled in the council Of gem
erals az Fekin, when he attempted to
save the Chinese forts from demolition,
on the railway line TO the coast to be
garrisoned. Only one Of his colleagues.
the Russian General Wogack. sided
with him If the programme adopted at
the meeting shall be ratified the forts
VIII have to go, and ii Will require
permanent force of six thousand inter
national troops to guard the railway,
in addition TO. say. two thousand le-
gation guards in Pekin.
This arrangement would be an en-
barrassmen- to the Administration,
since II would be compelled either TO
furnish q reasonable quota Of United
States soldiers or be placed in the pO-
sition Of abandoning the protection Of
American lives and interests in the En-
pire TO the care of the other Powers,
who might not willingly accept the re
spousfbility. II has been limited, hith-
erto. that possibly the other States in
terested in China might agree that If
the United States should refuse TO sup
port the action of the Concert with
arms, it would thereby forfeit its right
u benefit by any subsequent settlement
won and enforced by arms. But that
matter belongs TO a series Of questions
which may be summarily disposed OF
for some time 10 come, should the
threatened conflict between the Mtkado
and the Gar actually occur.