The Guthrie daily leader. [volume] (Guthrie, Okla.) 1893-1996, 1901-07-09
HENRY CLEWS' VIEW
OF THE SITUATION
Estimates the Wheat Crop
at 7OO,OOO,OOO Bushels


New York, July s.-Torrid heat. alb
sentecism the holidays and nrm money
an combined 60 check activity on the
little chang IN the situation from "a week
ago. Probably the quarter In which eau
tlon Us most needed Just now is mo the
money market Loans are greatly eX-
banded and bank reserves are low. The
tatter may rise for "a period after the
vUly disbursements, but no great relief
can DC Npcctd In this direction. an the
outlook FOR strengthening the reserves
through contraction OF loans is not very
promising On the contrary there is cV-
Grey prospect OF "a prolonged and active
demand Tor money az nrmor rates than
nave ruled In the past. Unusual demands
Tor FUNDS 20 move the crops are already
"a practical certainty And DO business
curing the coming autumn takes ON she
activity that BE- now expected the hlnka
VII Doe fully taxed iu meeting legitimate
requirements Ordinarl 1--WE can count ou
koiu imports ion The tIll months. but thiq
year that source is somewhat doubtful 800
view OF me struicd conditions in certain
or the Eurogean financial centers. be-
force ln some parts of the world. which
must ln a degree Doe reflected iu The New
YORK market Any important addition Co
the world regular gold output whether
through the ktnudy Ike or from South Az
uca. VIII of course De- beneficial. but this
ls altogether problematical The cutlook.
therefore, is Tor "a firm money market dur
ing the remainder OF 1871 This. 10 should
De- noted. j mot favorable To- "a ban came
lelsn OF great dimensions. The res0ur.
ces VI The banks are already SO fully oc-
cupied that they cannot % Ccmployd with
nuch greater freedom in speculative OPP
cratluns. Were prices not $50 high. or had
some 1ompisofy liquidation taken piJce.
would be much better.
ON the othe rhand, general conditions
the chances of an active bun campaign
are exceptionally favorable, lf prices M.
9ish prohts are SUI abnormal, and IL is
or possible dividends that mako
the values OF stocks. American railroads
are still enjoying the most exceptional
prosperity They are not only carrying
~record-brealln gtonnage, but rates have
been established upon a profitable basis,
and Increased dividends are being earned
on some roads while others. which never
dreamed Of dividends I'm this geenration,
are at least coming within sight of that
desirable ana comfortable status. The
railroads are really enjoying the most
legitimate ana substantial prosperity OF
any interest ia che country. and If D..
the ware really scllin ROn their merits
much more closely than the majority oil
industrials. The community of interest"
plan marks a distinctly new cra in the
railroad world. and IL Is thai which Is add
ing so greatly to the earning power of tho
railroads. crop reports are generally OF
a favorable character notwithstanding
the extraordinary weather Of last week.
The wheat crop Is practically safe, and
estimates run as high as 70.OC0.00U
bushels. General business conditions are
NhlHi1 Satisfactorily anu tlere ~ every
prospect that the last 81 XmOnths OF the
year Of 1921 VIII be as good as the same
In 1900. II not better. Recent bank
failures have induced some caution in
banking circles which was eminently de-
No general unsoundness can be
but these are warnings OF specu-
lative excuses and weak spots that 81 ed
be overlooked. Quite likely we mas
have similar experience slater on. these
being times when undue risks are taken
When credit contracts collapse follows. !
ana henceforth the banks are likely 10 be-
more discriminating In their collateral.
For the presnt We anticipate a traders I
market. As We have just said. conditions
would be especially favorable for "a bull
market Were Il not for the limited re-
sources OF the banks. This Will Impede
general activity, though ii may not nani-
per the operations of certain individual
interested in the manipulation of
heir spec.alties. Strong efforts TO manip- /
llate certain stocks may be expected
within the next few months and when
activity is renewed the market Will repay
close watching.