The times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1897-1901, 1901-04-26
dine AS PORTER'S GUESTS
The Result of a Wager Over the
Country's Population.

The Census Experts Entertained b!
the ES-Director - The Best Cues
Made by Colonel LOrd-Awarded I
Fine silver Loving Cup ns Prize
The members Of the staff of Directo
Merriam, of the Census Bureau. and ;
number of statisticians. in Government
employ, were the guests of Robert p
Porter at a dinner given in the banque
hall of the Hotel Gordon last night.
The dinner was the sequel to one giver
but two years ago, to the same people. The
occasion then was the retirement of Mr.
Porter as the Director of the Eleventh
Census. and the installation of Governor
Merriam as the Director of the Twelfth
A discussion arose between DIR. Herman
Hollerith, Chief of the Tabulating Divi-
sion. and Mr.. Porter as to what would be
the official figures of the census just about
to be taken. DIR. Hollerith contended that
the population of the United States would
be over 1906. 600 The contention of Mr..
Porter was that the people would number
less than that many millions. The discus
sion resulted in the laying of a wager
between the two disputants, the winner
! to pay for a diuner to be given to the
same company.
During the last year. when the enum-
! GRAFTON was nearing completion. there
was great deal of guessing among the
statisticians and some betting on the fig
ures which the official count was likely
to produce At the suggestion of DR..
/ Hollerith the guessers formed a sort of
! association, wrote out their guesses, en-
closed them in envelopes and put a con-
tribution in the box to go toward pur-
chasing a prize for the winner. The prize
purchased was a magnificent silver loving
cup. The unofficial announcements of the
result of the count proved DIR. Holleritl
tc be well on the safe side. and conse
quently the dinner was at Mr.. Porter s
expense. 1t was decided to open the
, guesses at Mr.. Porter's dinner. and last
nights festivities at the Gordon centred
around the contest.
! In order to know which statistician had
guessed nearest to the correct figures, it
was necessary for the announcement of
the official numbers to be made AS read
by Director Merriam, they were 76,305,29
with some allowance, probably about A.
500 reduction. TO be made because of the
recently detected frauds in Maryland.
The prize went to Col. J. S. Lord, who.
while not statistician. proved to be a
better guesser than any of them. His
guess was 76, 4O0,411.
The following were participants in the
contest, and the guesses they made:
William r. Merriam, Director of the
Census. 75. 400 900: Carroll d. Wright, COM
missioner of Labor; DR.. II. Gannett, Ge-
ographer, 75.GO.O00: William c. Hunt,
chief statistician in charge of popula-
ton LIS, 600; w. A. King. chief statisti-
clan in charge of vital statistics, 10 $50, 226;
l.. G. Powers, chief statistician in charge
of agriculture, 76,U1777; w. f. Wilcox,
chief statistician in charge of methods
bursting Officer, 7I-IH,Oi; J. w. Langley,
Appointment Clerk. 90 .235; c. s. Sloane,
Geosrapher, 75,49l,ssO; H. T. Newcomb,
Is, ,25S. .6l3; f. w. Parker, 75,555.555: Dr. Hol-
lerith, 76.0oo.OOl; w. r. Mackrille. 1885,
3S3; D. J. PETERS, &c, 800 900; Edward Koch,
75.242, go; George Boos, 7,599. 80; w. NJ.
Stewart, rs. .449.
Colonel Lord not being present, but
having a presentiment that he was to
win the cup, had sent letter. which was
read. He condoned with the less fortu-
nate, telling them that if they guessed
too high, they could lay the failure of
their calculation at the feet of lazy census
enumerators and If theiC figures We're too
low they could attribute it to the active
representatives of the department in the
field.
Before the opening of The envelopes con
taining the guesses. Mr.. Porter made a
short speech, during the course of which
he said:
81 sincerely trust the public will not
think the statisticians of the country are
organized into trust for the purpose of
cornerinG the statistics market. Not many
years ago prominent Massachusetts
writer said to me he had no faith In sta
tistics because from his observation the
existing chiefs of the various Govern
ment statistical bureaus spent most of |
their time correcting the mistakes and |
errors of their predecessors. This has
not been the case with the Census Bureau
he NOR h-l4 tah
to make in 1890 established the general |
accuracy of the Walker Census, while the |
enumeration just completed goes far to- /
ward establishing the general accuracy /
of the Eleventh Census. There are people |
around this table who have taken an ac- !
tive part in all the enumerations and they
can substantiate the claim. l wish cor /
daily to congratulate Director Merriam 4
and his able staff OF statisticians on the /
satisfactory and rapid manner in which 4
the enumeration has been completed and 1
DR.. Hollerith upon the despatch which he l
has shown in the mechanical tabulation.
Perhaps no one in the country can better
appreciate the magnitude of the task than
/. for have been through it and am here
to tell the story.
AT the dinner you gave me before the
work was begun. i was the only man in
the United States who had enjoyed that
experience. l am glad to have such a
robust colleague and friend to share the
honor with me. AS to the results of the
probably we shall learn
more IDNlBNl Nnen the estimates ]
opened, but in general way. as | have
time and again contended. the aggregate /
depends much more upon the activi-
ties of the people that. until we have |
annual returns of births and deaths and
we shall be always subject to |
surprise. True, / had more immigrants |
than General Merriam. but then he had !
the children of my immigrants who were
worth more numerically. The percentage !
Of increase. however. is decreasing and
will continue TO do so.
Expansion may bring us to hundred
million. but with the general increase of
he birth rate, il is not surprising that
We reached 100000. which, you will re-
member, was my limit"
After the award Of the prize Governor
Merriam spoke and in his address he de-
;lared that it would be necessary If the
next Census is to be taken properly. to
nave a permanent bureau. He asserted
hat almost l00.00O,0DO inhabitants could
De expected, particularly If the Philip
)ines. Porto Rico, and Cuba were in
,luded. il would be impossible to handle
such a multitude except from a perma- |
lently organized central bureau he said | !
n the time specified by Congress
Short addresses were also made by |
Wright and several others. |
REPAIRS TO WARSHIPS. ;