The Montgomery advertiser., 1901-06-30

theorists trip in the grass and the pail of milk upon which they builded their theories mingie in the dirt-gone in an instant. I have never yet seen any man, however, skillful he might be, who could properly figure upon the un- expected contingencies that attend ev- cry transaction In life, the simple prop osition of 8 trip upon railroad, the construction of house or the manage ment of a nation. There are always those uncertainties, those unexpected contingencies that no man can fore see. and it is the failure to properly foresee these unexpected things that leads us into disaster.
 Take the figures of the Committee, and what are they? They are that the collections exceed the expenses to the extent of $5S.000. By figuring up the unforeseen contingencies and extraor- dinary expenses we have had to pay they say there will be $279, 900. So as- suming there will never be any other unforeseen expenses or other xtraordi- nary obligations we will have $279, ,o0O of surplus upon the present basss if values continue as now and if the leg tslative requirements as to license taxes can be maintained.
 But, MT. President, four years ago if these gentlemen had been figuring they would have assured us most absolutely that today we would have that $279. .OOo In our Treasury. I don't believe that next year or the year after we will have another Constitutional Conven- tion. We may not in some years have to make appropriations to the normal schools. In some years we won't have the expenses of the Legislature, but as surely as time comes around the un- expecteS and extraordinary obligations that have arisen in the past from time to time will rise in the future and if any of those extraordinary oc- currences take place, we will find that the calculations of the Committee have left margin of only $5S,000 to meet them, and that based, as I have said. upon an absolute certainty which they seem to assume. that not only will values not decrease, but that they will increase. In the calculation they also assume that there will be a reduction upon the interest of the bonded in- debtedness of the State: and so there will probably unless this Convention makes the income from which credi- tors may expect to receive their inter- est and the payment of their bonds so narrow and of so doubtful charac- ter as to destroy confidence in the credit of the State.
 But the very minute that we proph- esy that we can get through on so many dollars and so many cents, when we fix 1t so that if our prophecies come true we barely will meet our obligations and if our prophecies fail in a single year there may be default, our creditors will not indulge in the optomistic views that We have taken and will prefer, if they can get them, securi- ties at the same rate but with a greater n1~rgin of security.
 l believe at the present rate of tax ation we can negotiate our bonded in- debtedness as low as three and a half per cent. but the very minute you re- duce the margin and make the credit Of the State doubtful we impose upon ourselves larger burden in the in- terest rata
 MT. President, we are all more or less familiar with calculations based on future contingencies. Most of us, at any rate, have undertaken to build houses and any man who has ever undertaken to build a house knows that no human being can calculate for unexpected contingencies connected with it.
 Now of the two problems which is the more difficult? In the construction of a building you have men who have made study of that subject for life, they know and can calculate every piece of timber, every hour of work and approximately every nail that must go into it. They have the means of ascertaining to the fraction of a dollar if human capacity were sufn- ciently definite and accurate, what the building will cost. They have been trained in that business and no other and yet with that experience there is not one in the United States that I have ever seen or heard of that. can make the calculation and make it &C., curately. And the calculation is short on one side and one side only. never heard of an estimate of construction being larger than the actual cost. Now is 1t lack Of skill? Not at ali. Is it lack of certainty as to the duty before them? Not at all. It is simply because there is in all human transactions those unforeseen contingencies, those extraordinary expenditures, as the committe says, that no man can foresee and no man can take into calculation. Now, if we have a period of depression, If values were to decrease and busi- ness interests were to become such that they could no longer stand the burden of the privilege taxes that are imposed now and imposed expressly for the pur- pose of preventing a deficit in the State treasury, then we would meet a contingency that we have not foreseen, and we would be in a position where there would be no possible remedy.
 It seems to me therefore that the question is not whether we shan re- duce taxation at present but the ques- tion is shall we tie our hands upon the faith of belief in the infalibility of the figures of the committee? Shall We put ourselves in condition where if unforeseen contingencies arise this State must default in its obligations? |? If we have our limit of the rate of taxation as 1t is, there is no reason why the whole of that should be i'm posed. It is true it is said legislators will spend any amount of money that is in the treasury and probably they will, but on the other hand my eXpe- riencve ie that they are sensitive about increasing taxation and if the ycan be trusted about anything, they can be trusted never to levy greater taxation than necessity requires.
 As I calculate on the resort of the committee, it is nothing more than this; That the indebtedness due to the State is collected two months before is obligations mature. If, therefore, the circumstances remain the same and the income remains the same we can always meet those obligations. We can always pay so long as conditions re- main unchanged. As a matter of fact We owe six hundred and seventy odd thousand dollars and we have that much to pay but that surplus in the