The Colfax gazette. [volume] (Colfax, Wash.) 1893-1932, 1901-10-04
PRICE OF WHEAT.
Bulls Yell Foreign Shortage, Bears
Big American Crop,

Big American Crop,
Now that the wheatgrOwers of the Pa.
| citic northwest have a record breaking
| crop pretty we'll under cover, their great.
est concern is in regard to prices. The
| present season does not differ much from
| it's predecessors so far as q lack OF
| unanimity OF opinion on the future
| course OF the market is concerned, saws
the Oregonian. Every argument that
| is presented by the buls in the trade is
countered by a seemingly plausible
| statement from the bears. If it were
not for this difference of opinion, even a
horse trade would be effected with diff
culties. The farmers of the Pacific
northwest, having a large surplus of
wheat to sell, are naturally inclined to
| regard the cereal as too cheap at pres
lief, a number OF bullish factors can be
cited. There is unquestionably a large
| shortage in the German crop, Russia is
famine stricken in some districts, and
the French crop is not all that can be
desired.
The bears, when confronted with this
| testimony, respond with the statement
that the American crop is so much
above the average that there will lie an
| expOrtable surplus over and above all
normal requirements sufficient TO meet
the usual shortage abroad. This argu-
ment is sound in measure, but the
present excellent financial condition of
the American farmer must be reckOned
with. Ii the latter decides that wheat
at present prices is below parity with
other commodities, and INDUCES in a
little speculation by holding his wheat,
advanced prices will be necessary in
order to make up the deficit, unless sub
stltutes or wheat supplies are obtainable
from some other quarter. The course
OF the market year ago, il taken as
criterion for that Of the current season,
offers but little comfort for the believers
In high prices. Last year the drOuth in
the middle west cut over 100, 900, 600
bushels of wheat, and the Argentine
crop came in on top of this shortage
with at least 5O,000,O00 bushels less
wheat than it turned off the preceding
season. On the first wave of excitement
which followed the news of the crops
burning up in Minnesota and the DakO-
tas there was a sharp advance, which in
a few days ran prices up IS cents per
bushel. An analysis of this sudden
strength in the market proved it to be
more sentimental than statistical, for
the big shortage was not seriously felt
except in the immediate locality where
it was the most pronounced. The re-
suit was that wheat dropped back to
about where it started, and even the
direst reports from the Argentine a few
weeks later could not start it from the
rut in which it settled
This year America and Canada have
a surplus, generally conceded to be sui
hcient to meet the shortages so far re-
ported from Europe, and long before all
of this wheat will be needed the Argen-
tine will be in the market This latter
country. in fact, may be said to hold
| the key to the situation. Her crop will
| come on the market just at a time when
| the early movement from this country
| shows signs of slackening. Europe has
demonstrated her ability to shake out
enough early offerings for all immediate
! demands, and as the Argentine always
sells regardless of prices, good crop in
| that country would Ohviate the neces-
sity of any advance on the American
holdings. The strike in San Francisco
will undoubtedly have a bad effect on
the Pacific coast wheat market later in
the season. July, August and Septem-
Der are heavy shipping months for San
Francisco, and had it not been for the
strike at least 100000 bushels OF
California grain, which is still on the
docks, would now be afiOat.
This grain will hang over the market,
and as it goes forward now will not
reach the European market until steam
cargoes from the Argentine are arriving
off coast. In fact, the heaviest ship
ments from Oregon, Washington, Cali
fornia and the Argentine will all reach
the foreign consumer about the same
time. Against this array of bearishness
as previously stated, is the possibility
that the American farmer will not sell
freely. The situation is certainly per
picking one, and the oldest operators
show an unusual degree of hesitancy
about assuming any further obligations
until conditions are more clearly defined
Coast Wheat and Flour.
Portland, Sept. 30 Shipments fol
the month closing yesterday from Port
land were 600, 633 bushels of wheat, "A,
252 barrels of -four and 21O,OSS bush
els of barley Total shipments from
Oregon and Washington for the first
three months of the cereal year, -four in.
cluded, were 1921, 30S bushels, com
pared with 4,274,67O for the same
period last season. Wheat shipments
from Portland and Puget sound art
both lighter than last season, but there
has been heavy increase in -four ship
| moDtG