The Savannah morning news., 1901-12-04
COTTON ON A JUMP
RESPONDED AT ONCE TO GOVERN
MENT'S ESTIMATE.
CROP PLACED AT 9,674,ooO.
SCARCE A MEMBER OF THE En-
CHANGE PREPARED FOR 1T.

Cotton Men Had an Idea That the
Estimate Would Be Much Higher.
Formed a Pool and Guessed at the
ResuIt-NIr. Malcolm MacIean's the
Highest and Mr.. Robert Cannon's
the Lowest Guess-Mr. Cannon
Won the Purse-ThOse Who Have
Held on in the Face of Uncertain
Conditions VIII Profit by the Rise
Caused by the RepOrt-Presiden
williams of Cotton Exchange Dis
cusses the Estimate.
In the cotton world yesterday was
a day Of vindication for the holder who
has stood pat for weeks in the face
Of uncertain conditions. and swung TO
his cotton with the determination OF
getting a fair price for it. For few
minutes after the government report
came at the Cotton Exchange. putting
the crop at 9,6740O0 bales, prices rose
at rate that must have given JOY TO
Georgia planters and holders. for the
first jump made them richer by nearly
81 per bale.
When the excitement on the floor of
the exchange reached its hight the
faces of members disclosed their feel
[ ings. Some seemed - be asking them
selves the questions. Where is NeiH.
/ Buston, Landeur and the balance of
emp" A rampant bear on the outside
s1vore the government was crazy, and
/ that the millions of dollars it had ex-
| pended in gathering data, and the sal
| aries paid the most skillful statisticians
/ 10 be employed. were as pearls cast
/ before swine. Few expected an esti-
mate below 10000, 600 bales, and a ma
jority looked for more.
The ideas of the local trade was
/ shown by the estimates made a short
| time before the report came from
! Washington, and which was averaged
and posted. The highest guess was
by Mr.. Malcolm Maclean, 10. $50, 600
and the lowest by Mr.. Robert Cannon
| 9,I25,000, which won the purse. Mr..
| Murray Stuart came next to the win
ming guess, with an estimate of 9,740.-
600, and Mr.. Wright Hunter third,
with 9.750,000 Mr.. Hunter
did not expect the report
to fall so much below 10000, 900
bales, and believes that the outturn
will approach this figure. Two years
| ago the government report missed the
crop by about 40O,0 900 bales, and last
year about 100000, and while these are
considered good guesses, it shows the
| impossiblity of getting within much
| closer range of the final figures. Mr.
| Hunter said that while the advance
for interior cotton was being paid with
fair freedom there was no unwieldy
rush on the part of holders to sell
| pending further developments. and the
full effect the report is likely TO have
upon the future course of values
Capt. j. ]. Gaudry did not look for
the department figures to be as bull
ish as those given, and believes more
than this size crop is made. The con-
firmation of the report, however means
higher prices for cotton.
J Mr.. ]. P. Williams, president of the
Savannah Cotton Exchange, was seen
by a representative of the Morning
News, about the bureau estimate He
was quite in accord with the bureau,
believing that ii has means of informa-
ton that enable it TO prognosticate
with greater eXactness than others not
so we'll equipped.
The Weather Bureau" said Mr.. Will
liams. has facilities for ascertaining
conditions of the cotton crop through
out the cotton producing belt that are
unequalled by any dealer. firm or cor
poration. No one house can ascertain
the same facts about the crop as the
Weather Bureau. There must be some
thing in the estimates that are made
for the government, or certainly the
government would not continue the
work
Il am inclined to accept the estimate
of the bureau. not only because l be-
lieve its facilities are so excellent for
securing the information upon which
it's estimates are based. but because
of the corroborative evidence that is
supplied by the estimates of certain
well-known houses that have not miss
ed the government estimate very far.
The bureaus low report Is not so much
lower than those of recognized authori-
ties as to make its acceptance out of
the question, and | am inclined to be-
lieVe that the event will prove the We
racity of the bureaus figure. OF course
the actual crop may miss the estimate
of the bureau by even as much as 200,
900 bales, but even so close an estimate
is a good one.
1T is no surprise TO me to see the
bureau make so low an estimate. u
must be remembered that the trend
of cotton production is westward, and
that any untoward circumstances az
fectng the crop in the West have an
unhealthful erect upon the enlTs
yield. Any serious blow to the pro-
duction west of the Mississippi river
means that there is 10 be marked
diminution in the total yield. Texas
and Oklahoma Territory have fallen
short, and Arkansas reports are not
encouraging. Adverse conditions in
that region would mean serious effect
upon the entire crop, and when that
effect IS increased by the poor crops
of North Carolina, South Carolina and
Tennessee, II but stands to reason that
a short crop may be expected.
MY observation of the cotton crop
from early summer left me no alter
native than to expect it to be short
In Georgia ! believe there is a little
better than the average crop, although
three or four months ago it did not
look as though there would be anything
like so many bales produced. l think
IT absurd, however. to credit the re-
port that the Georgia crop will amount
to ,600.0 bales, though il may go
above 100000.
Late in June I Travelled through the
southwestern part of the state and
found the crop very backward. Near
Albany l saw only three blossoms on
June 90 when all the fields should
have been in full bloom. This back
wardness hurt the crop. for killing
frost came very early this year. The
average date for killing frost in this
section is about Nov. "a or 25, but II
! appeared this year three or four weeks
earlier. OF course IL tended to cut of
] he