The Montgomery advertiser., 1901-08-22
TEXAS COTTON CROP.
A statistician Predicts Small Yield.

A statistician Predicts Small Yield. Corsicana letter in Houston Post.
 The light showers of rain which have fallen in spots throughout Central and North Texas during the past twenty days have proven detrimental to the cotton crop instead of being advantage ous to 1t. The extreme drought of eighty days duration caused the earth to crack open to a depth of several feet, the cracks being six inches wide in places by actual measurement. The earth is cracked everywhere. The hot winds which have prevailed during the long drought period have swept Central Texas as if by fire and the condition of the cotton crop is positively the worst known for the past twenty years. The optimists who ignore facts and rely upon rain reports and other absurd statements that a good crop will yet be matured will certainly come to grief if contracts are carried out at present prices for future delivery.
 During the year 1899 the most .cele- brated cotton statisticians of the United States and Great Britain pro- mulgated a report and published it to the cotton consuming and cotton spin ing world that the American cotton crop would produce 12,000,000 bales. The eminent statiSticians who promul- gated that report stood by it for a period of eight months. and used their prestige as worldwide disseminators of actual conditions until practically the entire cotton crop had passed out of the farmers hands at an average price of cents per pound. Relying upon the optimistic views of their chief the English spinners refused to come into, the market and buy cotton at ' cents per pound in the early months of the season. After playing a waiting game for eight months the eminent statisticians made a precipitate plunge and confessed that their system had failed" The English spinners found themselves confronted with depleted stocks at home and they were com pelled to look to the cotton specula tors on this side for a scant supply. It is conservatively estimated that the error cost the cotton spinners of Great Britain 910,000,0 900, $20 per bale.
 The condition of the cotton crop of Texas today is not comparable with the crop of 1899. The drought of this year began on or about the first of June. The drought of 1899 began on or about the first of July, hence it must be conceded by the most con- servative statisticians that the crop of Texas will be less than the crop of 1899. which proved to be only 2,435, ,0Oe bales by actual count. We estimated the Texas crop of 1899 at 2.460. 900 bales and reiterated our estimate from time to time in the columns of The Post. Our correct estimate of the crop of 1899 was made upon the report of far mers themselves. relying upon the re- port of the farmers of Texas as to present conditions. We must say that the cotton plant is not more than half as large as that of last year. There is not more than half as many bolls upon the stalks as there were last year end the bolls are not more than half as large as the crop of last year. Disguise these facts as they may, the cotton bears cannot ignore facts and the facts must come from the farmers. who know their business and who as a rule are truthful and reliable. Summary of present crop.
 Acreage of 1000 900, bale to ten acres, stubble and sterile land; total 100, 900 bales.
 Acreage of 2,OsO. 900. bale to five acres, thin uplands; total of 40O,00 bales.
 Acreage of 100000. bale to four acres. sandy prairie: total of 500.O0o bales.
 Acreage of 2.OsO,OOO, bale to three acres. black waxy prairie; total of 666, 900 bales.
 Acreage of 75O,OOO. bale to two acres, river valleys, etc.; total of 375, 900 bales.
 Acreage of 250, o00 bale to one acre, swamp and cane brake; total of 2o0.- 600 bales. -~
 Acreage of 5000 900. S.9a acres per bale; grand total of 2,291.O 900 bales.
 The average yield of lint per acre will be 143 pounds. the poorest crop for two decades.
 At the beginning of the crop year 1899 there was a visible surplus of D. 900. 900 bales of American cotton. At the close of the present season the worlds supply of American cotton will proba- bly, not exceed 1.OOS. 900 bales. The crop of 1899 was 9,435.000 bales. the present crop coming to close on September 1 will approximate To- 800, ,000 bales. the combined crops of 1899 and 1900 being 19,9S5. 900 bales. The world has drawn upon the surplus existing at the be- ginning of 1899 for 100000 bales to meet the worlds consumptive de- mands. hence we find as a self-evi- cent proposition that the world has consumed in the past two seasons 20, 935, 900 bales, an average yearly con SulilPtlOiI OI Iu.fOi ,OUu DdleS, tHe Sdlilc being in round figures 1,000.000 bales in excess of production. With yield of only 9.5OO,OeO bales in prospect for the growing crop and only 1 100000 surplus to draw upon to meet the worlds minimum demands. the farmers and spectators are absolute masters of the situation and they will use their advantage with the same measure of success that crowned their efforts during the past two seasons Having no interest in cotton directly or indirectly we may with propriety ask the English cotton spinners to come early into the market for their supplies or they will experience a rope tition of 1899 when they contributed 10, o00, GOO pounds to the speculative trade on this side when almost the ,n- tire crop of that season had passed out of the farmers hands.