The Washington times., 1901-09-10

lower that does the mischief, for II the
fall is sufficient it means the ruin cf all
debtors, and these include very large
percentage of the worlds active buSi-
ness men.
The long period of depression which
began in 1873 in both Europe and Amer
lea was marked by a heavy and almost
continual fall of prices. There were &C.
casional furries of Improvement. and
these were always accompanied by an
upward move of the price level. Speak
ing generally, falling prices indicate
business stagnation, and rising prices
are sign of prosperity. Subject only
to temporary checks and slight recov-
cries, the whole period from 1853 until
June, 1897. was one of falling prices,
the aggregate of the average decline
being about forty-five per cent. But
shortly thereafter a business revival set
in. and almost Immediately prices be
gan to advance.
The distinctive feature of the present
era of prosperity has been the rise in
the market prices of staple commodi-
ties This has been adverted TO and
commented upon by trade journals all
over the country. Tie rise was contin-
uous from July, 1897, until February l,
1900. During that time there was an
advance from the low point of about
forty per cent, according to Brad
streets tables. This covered the boom
period of the revival. Then came the
break in iron and steel. The boom was
.han nd n eli iph ctf
Prices took a downward turn, and de-
clined slowly until last June, the en-
tire fall being about twelve per cent
from the high point. Here, however, we
meet with another change. The decline
suddenly stopped and prices once more
moved slowly upward. This movement
continued until the beginning of the
present month, the gain being little
more than two per cent from the low
mark made on the first of June.
We must not, though, argue too
strongly that this latter advance indi-
Gates improved business conditions. 1t
must be remembered that a temporary
rise of the average price level may be
caused by an unusual adYapce in the
prices of a few leading staples, and
such advance may result from some
abnormal cause-as actual or prospec-
tive scarcity, through crop failures, or
some other unusual occurrence. AS A
matter of fact, the recent advance has
been the result of just such causes
The drought in the West has advanced
the price of cereals; the cotton crop is
not promising, while finished products
of iron and steel have been affected by
the strike These are sufficient to ac-
count for the greater part of the rise
that has taken place-perhaps for the
whole of it.
From all os this We see that general
rules in political economy are frequent
ly subject to exceptions resulting from
peculiar conditions If the most recent
advance in prices had been owing to
larger consumption, and a consequent
ly stronger demand. IL would indicate
that business is better now than II was
three months ago; but the advance has
been owing to a diminished supply,
caused in good part by unfavorable
weather conditions. 1t must, therefore,
be deemed an exception to the rule, for
no one will seriously claim that busi-
ness has improved since June l. 1t is
not materially worse, but 1T certainly
is no better. Business is. never i'm
proved by a destruction of crops. or