Yorkville enquirer. [volume] (Yorkville, S.C.) 1855-2006, 1901-11-16
SIZE OF THE COTTON CROP.

The present low price Of cotton Is at
tributed to various causes. most nota-
BILE among which are a slack demand
for cotton goods and a growing belief
that the crop Is going to prove one OF
the largest on record. The slack de-
mand proposition Is so obvious as to
leave no ground for question; but what
basis there Is for the large crop idea,
beyond the off-hand estimates of Neill
and others, has not yet appeared.
Messrs Latham, Alexander & Co., Of
New York, who are among the most
level headed authorities in the cotton
trade, do not have a great deal Of con-
f1dence in the big crop idea. They
reason from such facts as necessarily
apply to the case, and in a circular
letter dated November 9, give the fol-
lowing plausible analysis Of the situa-
ton:
1.-THE total amount Of cotton in sight
from September 1. to November 1, this
year, was 2,S41,613 bales: compared
with the same period Of 1900, 1t Is 191,-
939 bales less; 20,722 bales less than in
1899; 4O6,S7S bales less than in 1898,
and 120,723 bales less than in 1897.
IF the movement to November 1st
should only be 26.44 per cent. Of the to-
tai crop this year, as 1t was In 1898,
and which was the smallest ever
known to November 1st, the crop this
year would figure out l0,747,401 bales.
On the other hand. should it prove to
be 80 per cent. Of the total crop, as 1t
was in 1867, which was the most
rapid movement, the crop would prove
to be 7,893,329. If the movement thus
far should prove to be an average of
the past ten years, which was 30.12 per
cent. the crop would figure out 9,435, 302
for this year.
'In 1S98-99 the total crop was 1874
$40 bales, the largest ever grown. The
movement to November 1st this year
was 406,87S bales less than it was that
year. If the crop is to be as large
this year as in 1898-99, the enormous
receipts of that year will not have to
be equal from now to the end Of the
season, but increased 406,87S bales.
"1878-99 the movement Of the crop to
November 1st was 81, ,230 bales great
er than this year. Still. the crop yield
ed only 8,757, ,964 bales.
1.-THE total crop Of cotton this year
cannot we'll be approximated by COM
parison of the movement to November
1st with any particular previous year;
but an average Of receipts to November
1st for the past ten years should repre-
sent in some degree the probable out
turn Of the crop.
"The crop was marketed rapidly dur
ing October. on account of favorable
conditions for picking and shipping,
and because cotton was required for
export to fill contracts for October and
November deliveries and shipments
and to increase depleted stocks Of spin
ners.
"On October Sd, the governments es-
timation Of the condition Of the crop
was 61.04, next to the lowest estimate
ever recorded. This estimate has since
been confirmed by the subsequent re-
ports of commissioners Of agriculture
of the various cotton states-some Of
them Of recent date.
Our own advices to date, through
means of circular kilograms reaching
nearly all the cotton growing coun-
ties. also confirm the prospective short
yield Of cotton.
1T is hardly proba BILE that a long
and disastrous drought in Texas and
the Southwestern states should con-
tribute to increase the crop. or that a
notoriously unfavorable rainy season