New-York tribune., 1901-04-03
A DISTR4CTTNG BAROMETER.

Fundamental conditions in trade and Industry
have long been considered as most accurately
indicated by the course Of the iron and steel
market. At present this barometer points 10
clear weather and an atmosphere free from de-
pressing elements. Yet the latest statistics of
pig iron output and stocks at the furnaces are
sufficiently contradictory to be bewidering and
the explanation given by iron trade papers does
not explain According TO a recognized author-
ty. the furnaces in blast are now producing at
very nearly the top record. with a weekly out
put of 292S99 tons. Multiplying this by 81 it
appears that production is at the rate of 49,
230.74S tons per annum. This exceeds the
largest production for twelve months which
made during the last half of 1899 and the
first half of 1900. and that this quantity was
enormously excessive most concusively
demonstrated by the general collapse of prices.
Quotations much more inflated at that
time than they now. and the comparative
conservatism pursued by selling committees
this season is the best reason to hope that a
setback may be avoided Mills have
contracts for months ahead and premiums are
paid for prompt delivery. while furnace stocks
on March 1 amounted to only 535 443 tons.
against 670, ,531 October /, 1900. These figures
would seem to indicate that despite the rapid in
of furnace capacity consumption is
more than keeping pace, and instead of stocks
accommodating there is a loss. Stocks at the mills
are reported low. but this is open to question
and cannot be verified The large increase in
output and a decrease of 1885, ,OS8 tons in fur
mace stocks during the last five months would
suggest accumulation of invisible supply. even
allowing for a record breaking consumption.
Two factors in favor of permanent pros
perity and continuance of healthy conditions
primarily. the enormous domestic demand for
structural work bridges buildings. vessels
etc. while railways urgently endeavoring
to secure freight and other rolling
stock to handle the larger business offered
Foreign contracts also secured in the face
OF aggressive competition by British and Ger
man manufactured. and European publications
give much space to warnings against the in
roads of Americans. Retaliatory legislation
is recommended and conservative men In
Great Britain advise the government 10 renounce
allegiance to Cobdensm. When even free trade
England contemplates a protective tariff to re-
sist invasion by steel mills, It is evident
that the growth OF American foreign trade has
assumed alarming proportions. 1t is not reason
able 10 hope that the domestic demand can
continue to expand indefinitely at the present
rapid rate. that If the production is sustained
above all previous records II will be necessary
to secure a market for the surplus outside this
country On this factor depends the permanence
OF prosperity for the leading manufacturing in
dustry OF the country.
In all branches of trade and manufacture con-
sumption in the long run is governed by prices
and If the cost expands excessively there comes
a decrease in demand. Supplies Immediately be-
gin to accumulate. and quotations react until
the equilibrium is restored This was fully
demonstrated by the course OF the iron and steel
market late in 1899 and early in 1900. A more
recent example given by the cotton market
during the last few months. 1t is in the light