The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1901-11-27
NINE AND A HALF
MILLION BALES
Mr.. Prices Estimate of the
Cotton Crop
AN EXHAUSTIVE INQUIRY
Conservative Estimates Made by Mer-
chants and Bankers.
AN 8,545,473 BALE CROP INDICATED
Mr.. Price Considers This Too Small and Makes
an Allowance If 8 Per Cent Bring.
ing the Figures Nearly Up
10 9,229,tll.
AN EXHAUSTIVE INQUIRY
Conservative Estimates Made by Mer.
chants and Bankers.
AN 8,545,473 BALE CROP INDICATED
Especial to News and Observer.

New York Nov 26.-On the 18th of
gard to the cotton crop of 1901 1902, in
which, basing my opinion upon the
closest possible analysis of the weather
conditions that prevailed for the six
months ending the 1st of September,
1901, as compared with the weather con-
ditions for the previous nine years.
stated it to be my belief that the cotton
crop for the years 1s01-1902 would not
much exceed 9,5O0000 bales unless, as a
the yield should be greatly augmented.
Within the past three weeks killing
frosts and freezing weather have been
generally reported throughout the entire
cotton belt, and it may be accepted that
the growth of the plant is finally at an
end. Recently several parties having
the reputation of crop experts have
promulgated estimates, giving from
10.750.O 900 to 12.5OO,OO0 bales for the crop.
The resulting divergence of opinion with
regard to the size of the crop is there
fore, greater than almost every previous
estimate. and with view of ascertain
ing the truth as accurately as possible,
! have been at great pains to make a
further investigation of the subject.
The very exhaustive report of the
United States census issued on the 28th
Of September has afforded a basis for this
investigation that has never previously
existed. In the report the census has
been able to accurately determine
through advices received from some
$4,000 ginners almost the number of
bales produced last year in each county
in the cotton belt. According to this
report the cotton crop for the closing end
of September. 1901, emitting Virginia.
was produced in 761 counties and total
of the crop as given below, was 10, 474 ,031
bales. Taking this report therefore as
a basis Of calculation, / have caused to be
addressed to three parties in each coun-
ty return postal card, asking the es-
timated production for the county in
which the person addressed resided. In
each of the postal cards so addressed I
caused to be filled in the production of
the county, according to the census last
year, thus making clear the exact scope
of my questions. To these inquiries I
have received in all, 1913 replies, covering
$50 counties, and from 221 counties /
have received no replies, but of the coun-
ties not heard from 1O1 produced less
than 5000 bales last year, so that it may
be safely assumed l have reports from
every large producing county of the entire
belt. AS matter of fact the replies re-
ceived include counties which last year
produced 80 per cent Of the entire crop,
and in my opinion the investigation may,
therefore be regarded as decidedly COM
Drehensive.
The estimated yield of $40 counties.
which last year produced 1912, O41 bales is
this year stated to be 6,727, 26S bales
and applying the average percentage of
increase or decrease in the counties re-
porting by States to those counties which
| have not heard from, l have arrived
at the indicated yield in the counties
from which no reports have been re-
ceived. On the basis of these reports the
indicated crop is 8,545,473 bales by States,
the comparison is as follows:
Total production 190O-1901, according
to United States census.