The watchman and southron. [volume] (Sumter, S.C.) 1881-1930, 1901-01-16
SMALL CROP
AND HIGH PRICES.
An Estimate That Appears to
Be Warranted By Avalla.
bic Facts.

| Ol0 i 0OG0s
New York, Jan I've desire
again to cali your attention to the
size of the crop indicated by the
movement 90 far this season For
the past II years the average move
ment into sight to January lst has
been 10 4 per cent of the total out
put.
The amount in sight to January l.,
this season according to Mr. Hester's
figures is 6, 6,607,OO bales;
Assuming 20 6 per cent to come
into sight for the balance OF the sea
SOD, equals 7,943 bales !;
Total crop. assuming the move
ment to date to have equalled the
average of the past twelve years,
1884. .943 bales.
Our information gathered by spe
cial agents, and by extensive CORES
pondeuce confirms the opinion we
have heretofore expressed, that this
crop has moved faster than the aver
age.
In our opinion, therefore, the max
imum of this seasons output may not
exceed $500, 600 bales and may fall
materially below it. In this connec-
ton, it is a noteworthy fact that to
the Let of January in 1897, when the
total vas only S.757.OG0 bales,
the a.41t in sight was 6,398 1872
bale or only 134,l77 bales less than
the amount in sight to the same date
this season. In l891.1892, when the
crop was only 9,035.370 bales. the
amount in sight to January 1, 1892,
was {, 6,446,0 ,0S6 bales, or only S6,2S3
bales less than the amount in sight TO
the same date this season
1t ls also interesting to note that
in the crop of 1891 1892. the amount
in sight to December l, 1891, was
4,782,232 bales. while the amount in
sight to December 1st, this season,
according to the Chronicle, was
4 4.795, 708 bales The movement this
year would seem to run more nearly
on parity with the movement in
l89l.l892 than any other season
While we believe it has moved faster
than the average, we do not now
believe it has moved ss fast as the
fastest. In the ear ly part of the
season during the cotton famine
months. the movement was as rapid,
in our opinion, as it could possibly
be. We are informed that the
farmers camped around the gin
houses and rushed their cotton to
market with the utmost rapidity
During the three weeks following the
break of October 10th, we believe
cotton was marketed more slowly
than usual, and that rapid marketing
did not again set iosnntil the Novem
Der advance, since which date move
ment has been more than normal. 1t
is safe to conclude, therefore, that
the movement in eight to date is
somewhere between the average and
the fastest of the past twelve years
In our opinion, an advance in
prices will bring on large January
movement. There is balance left
of this crop unmarketed, varying in
amount anywhere from $500. 900 to
100000 bales Picking aud gin
oiog is practically concluded: and
this remaining portion Of the crop is
ready to be sold as soon as satisfac.
tory price can be obtained. A large
January movement, however. would
not indicate maximum crop of more
than 9 100000 bales
One million bales for January
would only bring the amount into
sight to the let of February. 1907.
600 bales For the past twelve
years, the average in sight to Febru
ary lst has been 80 10 per cent 30
that even assuming 100000 bales
for January, we would have an in
dicated crop on the lot of February
of not over 9.500.000 bales
A word now ss to consumption
In our opinion, Mr.. Ellison has un.
derestimated the consumption for
this season We are informed from
the most reliable sources that unless
there is prohibitive advance in the
price Of cotton, that Southern con
sumption this season will equal, if
not exceed, last years While some
mills may consume less, the consump
ton of the new mills will more than
make good this deficiency There
may be some decline in the consump
ton of the Northern mills. but With
the enormous prosperity of the whole
country aud With the large individual
purchasing power tn is prosperity
owes we cannot but believe that we