The San Francisco call., 1901-11-21
Condition of Trade.

HOW THE COMMERCIAL SITUATION Is
VIEWED IN WALL STREET.
The Kew York circular Of Henry Clews says:
Though there is a general feeling that we
are on the top wave Of prosperity and that
q recedng movement must soon set it, yet on
all sides We are confronted by evidences of
unprecedented industrial activity. Some
branches OF the iron trade are still booming"
at astonishing pace, with no prospect of
early cessation. and railroad earnings continue
TO show The most hattering increases over last
years record breaking returns. Agricultural
interests are also sharing general prosperity,
and there is little complaint even from the dis
tTicts where corn and cotton were most injured.
The truth IS the United States, with its mag
uihcent resources, has burst into one OF those
periods OF rapid new development Such as
have more than once astOnished the world,
and no one can tell when the climax has been
reached Certainly the reaction in Germany.
while it should be taken as a warning cannot
be accepted a parallel, Tor Germany is q
FULLY developed country and must react quickly
from excess while the United States through
sheer strength, can continue longer on the path
OF development unhurt. The feeling Of ap-
prehensiOn, or. more properly speaking, con-
servatisn. which now exists is, however, one
OF the best safeguards against excess. 1t is
- -
definitely and the cautious spirit IS 70 be well
coined and encouraged. General business and
credit are still sound and there will have to
be a very considerable oVersualnlng OF both
before any widespread reaction can take place
IN Wall street In the case of speculation
there is however particular reason for eau
tion; prices are very high, and when profits
begin 10 come down to normal we may look
for corresponding movements in Stock EX-
change values. As is well known. there are
large quantities Of stocks for disposal on every
rise, which means on the other hand that the
market viii have the support Of the big in
terests for some time TO come. While these
conditions last there viii be little material for
any prolonged bear campaign.
The money market seems TO be z subject
Of some concern. chiefly because of gold eX-
ports, which were partly responsible for Thurs
days break. AS funds are now returning from
the interior we can easily spare few millions
to meet Europe's needs, and it remains TO be
seen whether the release Of securities held
through the Northern Pacific contest will ben
eft the money situation. more serious
trouble is the steady absorption of funds by
the treasury resulting from excessive taxation
and faulty treasury system. Congress so far
has been derelict in its duty in not repeating
the war taxes. The public mind will soon be
centered upon the dOings of Congress and may
show more OF less uneasiness for a time The
present outlook. however, is that no disturbing
legislation need be expected from this Con-
gress and President Roosevelt is likely TO be
much more conservative in Office than on the
stump.
Our exports in October were unusually
heavy, although showing loss Of S17. 700, 900
compared with the same period in 1900. which
was one OF the record -brea kers. Our imports
also showed an increase OF SO, 500 D00 so that
we had a trade balance Of only s64 200 0l0
against So, 700. 900 in October last year The
decree Sc last month was chiefly owing TO the
backward movement in cotton, which will OF
course be made up later. Nevertheless the
frequency Of smaller exports and smaller trade
balances IS suggestive, even if due TO depres-
sion abroad rather than reaction at home
escape the touch Of foreign waves Of depres-
sion -