The Washington times., 1901-07-30
The worlds Increase of Population.

The Worlds Increase of Population.
In the July number of The Cosmo-
politan" appears a rather curious arti-
Gle by ]. Holt Schooling, under the cap
ton, When Will the World Be Full?''
Many statisticians have amused them
selves with estimates of the worlds
: probable increase of population, but
/ this writer goes further. and actually
I figures it out that the world will con-
I tain all the people that can live upon
/ its surface in about three hundred and
/ fifty years-that is to say, in the year
\. ID. 2259. According to biblical chro-
nology it mas taken the world si=, thou
sand years to reach its present popu-
| lation, While scientists generally be-
heve that the human race has existed
quarter of million years. Therefore, it
gives US a rather rude shock to be
grayely informed that in three hundred
and fifty years more the worlds pop
ulation will have reached its highest
point, and that thenceforth we must
look either for a stationary condition
or decrease; not that any of US will
be here three hundred and fifty years
hence to take part in the struggle for
existence, but because that period
seems SO short by comparison even
with the known time that has been re-
quired to give the world its present
population.
But we need not be alarmed for
there are many factors properly enter
ing into the calculation of which Mr.
Schooling makes no note In fact, his
own figures show that his estimate is
probably very wide of the mark He
reaches this conclusion by assuming
that the world will increase in popu-
iation for the next three and a half !
centuries at the rate which has pre-
vailed during the last one hundred |
years-that is to say, one per cent per !
annum. That this is u very loose cal |
culation is at once apparent from the
fact which he states that during the |
last quarter of the century just past |
the percentage Of increase was only |
half as great as it was during the first |
quarter, which shows that the ratio of
increase is rapidly diminishing.
Moreover. 1t appears that no two
countries have increased with any
tiiiiiS ilhS cluSi pace, SOii3S naNluB
bounded forward with racehorse speed,
while others have almost remained
stationary. Especially is this true dur
ing the century's last quarter Speak
ing generally, the Teutonic race has
increased much more rapidly than the
Latin. but in neither class has the rate
of increase in the different countries
been anywhere near uniform. This
clearly indicates that in all countries
the ratio of increase is largely depend
ent upon the conditions which prevail
therein.
Mr.. Schooling shows that the popu-
lation of France is almost at a stand
still, while those of Austria Hungary
and Spain are increasing very slowly
when compared with those of the Uni
ted States, Great Britain, and Ger ;
many. But this difference has not al
ways existed. and it has only been dis +:
tinctly marked during the last half
century. Obviously. then. the conditions
which may. and do, affect the increase
of population are all the time chang
ing, and past increases furnish very
imperfect data upon which to estimate
the future increase.
The student of history will have no
In finding reasons for the
slow increase or possibly a decrease of
the worlds population during the !
Dark Ages" War was the normal
medical and surgical science
except among the Moors, was almost
unknown, and the average human life
was not much more than half as long
as II is now. So there are special rea- {
sons why the last century should have !
been marked by an extraordinary in !
;rease- Among these may be mention
I'd the advance of science on every line; /
in sanitation; Industrial 1
development making II much easier to s
obtain a livelihood; the comparative | \
of wars, and the humane
pirit in which they are now conducted ,
md what. perhaps, is the most import v
int of all. the circumstance that the O
century opened with the worlds popu- I
alton massed upon d small fraction of 4
he earth's land area, and with huge
continents awaiting settlement and I,
Il
But. after all, as we have seen. the b
Increase during the last quarter of the G
entury was only about half that of e
he first quarter, which is suggestive b.
f the maximum ratio of increase hay- n
ng been reached and passed No one | h