Arizona daily citizen., 1901-04-04
The Condition
In Wall Street.

New York, April 4.-Henry CIews q
Co. says: During the past week, the
stock market has shown wayering ten
dency, both as to the course of prices
and the volume of transactions. The
movement still remains under the con-
troll of the bill forces and there seems to
be feeling that the rising tendency has
not yet touched its maximum. but some
of the leading speculative stocks show
evidences of cautious realizing: To
some extent, this may be due to antici-
patton Of the usual April settlements,
but the stock market apparently is not
so sensitive to those transient furries
in money as formerly. 1t is time that
stronger influences asserted their force.
We have now had five months of the
most extraordinary boom in the history
OF Wall Street, almost without reaction.
II is true that it has been backed by
very extraordinary conditions, not onlv
tAlC bbiuO oA
road investments but also bringing into
the market unprecedented amounts of
capital, reinforced by the most potent
banking influences in furtherance of
great industrial and railroad IDEALS"
The great upward pressure of prices
thus induced has been urcontrollable,
and no "bear" movements have dare d
to challenge it.
Such foreible, persistent and one
sided movement could only run into
great exeesses, and has done SO to very
important, not to say serious, extent !:
and, as spectators sometimes know how
to be prudent as well as sanguine, the
more initiated of them are beginning to
ask-if a reactionary movement is not
now nearly due. The sustaining strength
now in the market is mainly contributed
by an impression that millionaire oper-
ators have not yet completed their deals.
or that other schemes of amalgamation
are waiting to be introduced. Much de-
pends on these contingencies; but there
is reasonable doubt whether the re-.
suits will finally confirm the very SAN
guine expectations. AS to the prospect
of further deals, it is to be kept in mind
that they would need the backing OF
banking forces: and that kind OF sup
port is apt to be regulated by increased
prudence. As rule, the bankers and
the great banks are becoming cautious.
1t is safe to assume that this important
class are already under commitments as
large as they care to carry. They do
not need to be reminded that it is need
full TO maintain a reserve of strength
against the rebound OF the speculative
boomerang that may possibly appear
sooner or later. Ii is rather their policy
to effect liquidation on theft present
advances than to encourage new ones !;
and, OF course, it may be expected that
they will aim to get out while cliques
and outsiders are thinking it is safe 10
hold on. Another important force is
cooperating with the banking contin-
gent.
The mnlti-millionaires who have
been the chief principals in the great
cooperative schemes understand that
current prices are likely to be the highest
for long time to come for the issues in
which they have become 80 largely in
terested; they find the market flooded
with largely overvalued stocks; the
time for them to realize is therefore
while the market is strong and active; /;
and well.informed men do not need to
be told that they are pursuing that
policy as fast as they can do so without
breaking down prices.
II these are the conditions and move
ments now existing they not only
are natural to such situation but also
are already in process of execution,-it
seems prudent for the ordinary speenla-
tive holder of stocks to begin to lessen
his obligations and prepare for turn in
the market. The market has unques-
tionabiy some strong and sound factors
in it, and especially in the railroad list
For the year 1900, the earnings, both
gross and net, are far beyond all prece-
dent. Not few roads are beginning to
pay dividends which have never paid
them before; the alliances between
groups OF competing roads afford prom
ises of large mitigation of rate cut
ting; and it is not unlikely that, after
the subsidence of the existing specula-
tive excitement, there may be resump-
ton of those cooperative alliances. All
this warrants higher normal level of
stock prices than has heretofore existed.
But these intrinsic improvements have
already been fairly discounted; the cur
rent average prices of many stocks
range above their dividend-paying val
ue, current or prospective, and re-
adjustment of their values will sooner
or later be in order.