The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1901-12-02
NOTE OF WARMING
HENRY CLEWS THINKS PRESENT
PROSPEROUS CONDITIONS CAN
NOT CONTINUE UNIDENTIFIED
PRICES HIGHEST ON RECORD
stocks selling on What Returns
They May Bring in the Future
Instead of actual Earn
Ing Power.

In his weekly review of the conditions
of Wall street, Henry C1ews says:
Stock market speculation has been err
ratio and uncertain. Some Speclalltes
scored further advances While otnerS
reacted from high 11gures and the entire
market was more or less adversely IN
huenced by unfavorable developments
connected with Arnalgamated copper. On
the other hand, the remarkable strength
OF the Vanderbilt shares and the DelleI
that imnortant steps were in progress
towards the consolidation OF these prop
critics served as an important stimulant.
Easy money, cessation of gold exports
and continued good railroad earnings also
served to aid the manipulation for high
er prices Whether the present effort TO
create bull market will succeed or not
we do not intend to predict; there pelnS
much to be said on both SIDES. with
an abundant supply of l0anable funds
and continued prosperity, it may be pos
Sible to carry the market to a hiSher
level considering that stocks are so h-gn-
~ concentrated. No doubt strenuous
effort will be made to anticipate the
January disbursements, which will be
very heavy and likely to aid such a
movement But, while 1t would De Ioily
to underrate the ability or the determine
ton of the big leaders to lift the market,
and the fact that many conditions are in
their favor, it is also very necessary TO
remember that circumstances are much
more contradictory than year ago.
Prices are already exceedingly high, in
many cases the highest on record. A
number of stocks are selling not on what
returns they do earn, but on what re-
turns they may earn, regardless of the
fact that the present wave OF prosperity
cannot continue much longer without re-
action. In fact, it is question whether
prosperity has not been nearly discount
ed Taking advantage of the large earn
ings of many of the railroads, excessive
obligations in some instances have been
put upon some of them, and In order to
fnr. %Iar fjkscs
they undoubtedly have been made tempt
ing to buyers with somewhat of disre-
gard of the future which may in many
instances call for readjustment and re-
organization when the lean years come
along, as they surely will in due season.
Nor is this all, some of the consultations
which have been put through are not
unlikely to meet with strong public OPP
may have to be made to this feeling.
Publicity will check certain abuses; but
If the railroads use their newly gained
powers to advance rates or in an arbl-
trary manner some form of governmental
restraint will probably be passed by
congress- The coming session, therefore,
is likely to witness more or less discus
sion regarding trusts and, the railroads,
and President ROoSevelt's utteranceS on
these subjects in his first message to
congress will be watched for with keen
interest. Mr.. Roosevelt is known to
hold more positive opinions on tbs sub
While we do not expect any radical de-
liverances on the subject 1t Is probable
that he win emphasize the desirability
Of publicity.
ing to the return of funds from the III
terror. Gold exports seem to have been
checked and lie necessities of Europe
temporarily satisfied. A better supply of
cotton bills also tended to check gold
shipments London. however. is gener-
ally a seller IN the advances in this
market and Europe is neither able nor
willing to enlarge its investments in rh1s
country. In view therefore of of the con-
tinued shut-off in the supplies of COLO
from South Africa we are still exposed
TO q demand upon US for gold. Fortunate
~ we are well able to supply this de-
mand. so it need cause no concern; only
It is well to remember that gold exports
are not generally utilized as bull argu-
ments. Our export trade continues &c
show ample trade balances but exports
have in several months fallen below last
years heavy totals, and our imports are
steadily rising. Adversely abroad and
prosperity at home may seem very COM
1orting. but such conditions are not con-
have been such Stimulus during tht
last few years In the present situation
there is nothing on which to build any
great hope for higher prices. The latter
are already as high as natural conditions
warrant. and. as said above, prosperity
has been amply discounted. while the
effect of adverse influences was Warded
off by artificial support last summer
The market is still in very powerful con-
troll it is quite possible that the leaders
with unlimited resources behind them
with easy money and January 7isburse-
ments to come and with the public inn
agination easily fired by the great deals
which are in progress, will be able to lifi
values to a still higher level. This will
afford an excellent basis for trading
but we advise caution in making pur-
chases and sue@est profit taking on al
pronounced rallies.