The times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1897-1901, 1901-05-02
The WAR Menace in Europe.

|
| The Wnr Menace in Europe.
| If American alarmists. perhaps sim
cerely. and British writers of the same
sort, only insincerely, would pause to
consider an important prudential reason
why Germany should arm, and particu-
larly why she should rapidly increase
her fleet, there would be less talk about
the alleged bad feeling in the Teutonic
| Empire against the United States.
That there are commercial differences
between the people of this country and
the Germans, growing out of active
competition in manufacture and COM
merce, goes without saying. But they
refer to matters which reciprocity or
some other give policy might
easily adjust. There is nothing in the
current relations of Washington and
Berlin. nor in the visible ambitions of
the German Government. to create I'M
easiness on this side of the water. Ger
many feels the need of new markets eN-
actly as we do; will seize and occupy
them where she can, just as we have
done-and will do; but that she Is even
squirting in the direction of accom-
plishing commercial expansion through
war with America to destroy the Mon
roe Doctrine at the present time seems
| to be a ridiculous proposition.
That is an excellent rule which says
that one must not assume super
natural when a natural cause will ac-
count for a given phenomenon. Under
it we are entitled to look for the reason
| of armament and naval activity in Ger
many rather in European than in
transatlantic conditions And, in pass
ing. we may be allowed % remark that
the great population of German origin
in the United States, loyal at once to
its American allegiance, but equally
loyal 10 the traditions of the Father
land, presents something almost in the
nature of buffer State in opposition to
the chance of a physical conflict be-
tween the oldest and the youngest of
Germanic Empires.
The First Napoleon was wrong in de-
tail when he said that in fifty years Eu-
rope would be republican or Cossack.
1t was not given to man in his gen.
Grafton to know the action and reaction
of the forces which changed the rela-
tons of men and States in the three
quarters of the nineteenth century
which followed his death. But it is ev-
ident that he did have a very luminous
idea concerning the persistent and re-
morseless march which Russia would
make toward world power. and in the
direction of preponderating power in
Continental Europe His warning was
lost neither upon the statesmen of his
time nor upon those who have succeed
ed them. The diplomacy of the Powers
from 1880 to the present is replete with
illustrations OF the fact that the west
ern movement of Russia has been and
still is dreaded by the States Of west
ern Europe, and by England. In the
minds of acute observers of the trend
OF Old World high politics. it has long
been a commonplace to hold that Rus
STA only awaits favorable chances to
make the Baltic Sea Russian lake, and
to Plant the Greek Cross upon the
Church of St. Sophia in Constantinople
With such a possibility in contempla-
ton. is it any wonder that Germany,
herself a Baltic Power, should "sit up
| and take notice?"
1t is only necessary to call attention
to political conditions in the Kingdom
of Sweden Norway to Indicate the dan
gers which threaten the peace Of north
err. Eurcpe. Sweden and Norway are
under a single dynasty. but are not con-
nected otherwise II is to be regretted
that the two peoples are far from being
homogeneous in thought. spirit. Ian
guage. or institutions. In short, they
are antipathetic. and the antipathy,
there is come reason to suspect. has
been fostered by Russia.
II Is limited that Germany and Rus
STA may have an understanding on the
subject OF closing the mouth of the
Baltic in the event of war between
Russia and Sweden; but II would ap-
pear to be much more likely that, II
| such an arrangement exists, it is be-
tween Russia and Sweden, and based
upon far different grounds. We notice
that, In some quarters, the theory that
| the Austro Hungarian Empire is near
| ing its end. and that II may fall in
I
pieces at the death of Franz Josef, is
scouted as chiplerical. 1t is equally
worthy of attention that. this is not the
view taken by leaders of the German
| Czech, and Slav elements which go to
make up the heterogeneous State which
| IN no chronological sense can be called
nation. Consider!ngf the tendency of
| the day 10 race consolidation and soil
| darity, 1t would be easy to construct the
theory that Russia might try to gain
| control OF the Austrian Slavs. just as
| undoubtedly she aims to take over the
Greek Christians OF the Balkan penin-
| sula when that shall be feasible AS
means Of rounding out her power, it is
not less probable that Russia enter
tains the hope of ultimately being able
to capture the great Scandinavian pen
| insula and hold II as q menacing front
| to England. and as Rock of Gibraltar
I In tins. the Ialtir Gao To Cav, ho