The times., 1901-06-21
Circulation Statement.
Our Export Trade.

Our Export Trade.
The seriousness of the tariff war
which has been precipitated by the
Treasury Department is greatly in
creased By the circumstance that we
have now reached a stage in our indus
trial development that makes reasona-
bly, free access TO foreign markets in
dispensable to the continuance of our
national prosperity.
Fer many years the extreme protec-
ton argument was based upon the idea
that if we could only hold our home
market we would be all right, and the
rest of the world might go TO the dogs.
True, even then the rest of the world
furnished a market for the surplus of
our raw materials and foodstuffs, but,
according to protective philosophy, they
would continue to do this just the same
no matter how badly they were hurt by
our commercial policy. There was a
modicum of truth in this. Foreign ma
tions would continue to buy such of our
staples as they needed, and which they
could neither produce themselves nor
get anywhere else upon better terms.
But obviously the more their own ex-
port trade was hampered, the smaller
would be the quantity of American
goods that they would need or be able
TO buy.
However, that phase-of the tariff sit
uation is now thing of the past. A
mere control of our own market for the
longer suffice to maintain a high grade
OF prosperity in this country In many
lines of manufactured goods we are
now producing far beyond our own re-
Quirements, and we must find a vent for
them-either that or we must limit pro-
duction, which means mulutudes OF idle
men, and a body blow to the prosperity
which Republican leaders have time
and again declared is here to stay.
II is true that our exports Of manu-
features constitute but small peTcen-
tage of the total output of such goods.
but it must be remembered that in its
bearing upon business conditions in this
country the ability to sell our surplus
is a matter of far greater importance
than the figures upon their face indi-
cate. In the first place a comparatively
small decrease in our total production
may convert a condition of prosperity
into one of stagnation and distress; be
cause when production is curtsiled
along certain lines by reflex action it af-
fects many other lines. But especially
is it true that a very moderate reduc-
ton of our export trade may have a
far-reaching influence through its effect
upon trade balances
When a country is heavily in debt, in
order to avoid increasing the debt it
must, of necessity, sell more than it
buys. This is the condition that con-
fronts US. For several years we have
been exporting annually five CT six
hundred millions of dollars worth of
goods in excess of what we have
bought But we have had no specie i'm
ports to settle for this huge balance.
We have. in fact. exported rather more
specie than we have imported. The
reason is simply that Europe has had
counter demands upon US sufficient TO
absorb the entire balance. If it was
more than enough to meet the interest,
dividend, and other charges against US,
instead of sending over specie, Europe
has returned American securities.
Such being the situation. it is self-ey-
ident that a comparatively small falling
off in our export trade would be very
likely to be followed by considerable ex-
ports of gold. This would press upon
the money market in Wall Street, and
the effect would at once be transmitted
all over the country. Interest rates
would be raised, money would be harder
TO get, and the prices of everything
bought and sold in the market would
fall as an inevitable result This con-
dition would be accentuated and made
more severe by the circumstance that
our failure to sell our surplus would
either glut the American market or
lead to a restriction Of the output.
course that never yet failed to exert
depressing influence upon business.
Hence it is apparent that the main
tenance Of such trade relations with
other countries as will enable US to dis
pose Of our surplus is matter of prime
necessity. We might entirely shut our
selves in from other nations and still
live, after a fashion, but it is worse
than idle to think of such a condition
in this age of enlightenment. Our in
terests are closely interviewer with
those OF the other great civilized ma
tions. To maintain cur prosperity at a
high point we must trade with them.
and we can only do this upon a basis
that approximates fair dealing on our
part.