The Pacific commercial advertiser. [volume] (Honolulu, Hawaiian Islands) 1885-1921, 1901-05-07
PROBABLE POPULATION.

ferent periods of its future existence,
basing his figures on what he calls the
natural law of increase, and other
doctors are striving to show that the
doctor doesn't know much about the
subject matter of his discourse. With
out following thes doctors STATISTICS
through all of their ramifications, 1t
will suffice to say that he fixes the
nepulation for 1850 at 20000o,00o, and the
population thousand years hence at
n 0oo 600 900. or several times the sum
total of the earth's population at the
present time.
OF the writer's who take issue with
+basa 3oures perhaps the most interest
ing is Charles E. woodruff, an ohlcer
of tho United states army. He claims
mot tbe natural law of increase, as
stated by DR.. Pritchett' is d lais
fo,. tbe reason that it does not take IN
TO consideration the imposslb1llty OF III,
crease beyond the "saturatlon point
He says:
point will increase rapidly, out Wheh II
sat,1rates the soil there is no increase
and. as we approach our saturatioli
noint. our rate will diminish rapidly TO
zero We do not know what our satur-
alton point is under present conoltiolis
of food production: but we produce Tar
more than enough for our twenty peo-
pie to the square mile. we can oilly
estimate our limit, baslng II upon the
known densities in countries which nave
always been populated to their h1nlI.
The saturation point rises with clVlllza-
ton. lust as the saturation point OF air
for water rises with the temperature
Cultivated land is said to produce l,60o
times as much food as an equal area
of hunting land. Denmark, Tor IN
stance. could support but 500 paleo-
lithic people, and when their culture
rose to the level of the present Pata-
gonians, 1000 could exist, and 1900 OF
those on the level of the natives OF Hud-
sons Bay In the pastoral stage each
family requires 1000 acres, and
France could not support $4,000 OF
such people. For centuries after the
Norman conquest the whole of Europe
could not support 100 100000, or about
twenty-five to the square mile. while
now there are .eighty-one."
China reached her saturation point
many centuries ago, and it remains
stationary at about the same level,
with some 400, 900, 600 of people. 1t is
true. admits Captain Woodruff that the
productive possibilities of the soil are
not the sole measure, for we have in
stances of countries that increase far
beyond their own power of sustaining
life For example, there is England,
with 300 population to the square mile,
which is importing more than one-third
of her entire food supply. Thus man
nation that can buy food
abroad will support much denser pop
ulation than her own resources can pro-
vide for But giving every possible
credit to the ability of the United
States to take from the products of
others, Captain Woodruff still thinks
very preposterous-
At the saturation point the death rate
and the birth rate must be equal. as
they now are in China, where there is
a large birth rate and also frightful
destruction of life by pestilence. muir
der and famine "Our civilization"
says Captain Woodruff, will never
tolerate such mortality, nor can the sur
plus migrate as it has been doing from
Europe for 400 years. Yet we need
have no fear OF future famines and pes
thence due, to overcrowding, and, so
necessary in India and China, for the
solution of the problem will come of it's
own accord in a natural limitation of
the size of families. BY the time we
have reached our maximum growth it
is quite likely that the number of
children in American families will be
less than three, or just enough to com
pensate for unavoidable deaths and
still keep the population stationary. The
deliberations of the Malthusian So
cieties may appear very absurd, but
they are merely discussing things
which are sure to come about natural
ly and not artificial1y.''
DR.. Pritchett's estimate of population
one thousand years hence is 1000 for
each square mile of our territory. Cap
tain Woodruff thinks that the utmost
our soil will ever be able to sustain is
125 to the square mile, or about 500, 000,
600. The authorities are, therefore, 40
500000,000 apart, which gives some lit
tie force to our opening remark about
the absence of value in the discussion.
The San Francisco NEWSLETTER which
knows just enough about Hawaii to
give it the assurance it needs to mag
inc the rest, says that the planters here
keep the 'simple-minded Kanakas" in
the cane fields three months in the year
and belle them the rest of the time. AS
there are no natives in the cane fields.
and as the three months farming sea-
son of the North becomes a twelve
months season here, the Newsletter
makes painful exhibition of it's own
simple mindedness.
%-
Bryan thinks prosperity is good for
three years more, and so wants Towne
to run for President in 1904 The fav-
orite son of Nebraska is saving himself
up for calamity season.
I'm MANUS TUAS DoMINEp
The glory has faded from the West.
The splendor from the mountains crest.
Stern Days relentless task is done
And Nature rests at set of sun.
But ere she shuts her weary ewes