New-York tribune., 1901-01-08
A WAR OF SURPRISES.
RECENT OPERATIONS IN THE DUTCH
TERRITORIES THE FULFILMENT OF
AN ANONYMOUS PROPHECY.
London, December 10

f~nerai Knox had four or five mounted columns
with relays OF fresh horses for pressing the pur-
eust is another amazing incident. Behind these
unexpected events is the mystery of the ability
of tie Beers TO keep up the struggle month
after month against army Of 100000 men
vben the railways are no longer available for
,he transport OF military supplies for the COM
rendoes and when their forces are scattered
ohaut the country without having anv imnor-
ISN'T town in their possession or any facilities
Cor renewing their stock of ammunition and
,ood. The British commanders, beginning with
Sir George White and Sir Redvers Butler and
ending with Lord Roberts and Lord Kitchener
have been taken abaek now and again by un-
expected revelations of Boer resources for re-
ssfsnce Meanwhile, with the British armies
srproaching their second Christmas at the front
The war is not ended and Krlger's prediction
de1ided when it was made. that the price to be
paid for the extinction Of the Dutch republics
would stagger humanity. has been fulfilled
Early in October, 1899. when military critics
sn comfortable arnchairs in the London clubs
were outlining the holiday march from Cane
Town 70 Pretoria. a little twopenny pamphlet
was published by an officer OF the active list in
which there was series of remarkable fore
casts Of the Boer plan Of campaign. and espe-
csIIy OF the scheme of operations in what was
described as the second theatre of war have
never seen in print any reference to this PAM
phet, but as il came under my eyes In the first
weeks Of the war / have frequently referred to
Il and been greatly impressed with the accu-
racy OF its predictions and with the lucidity of
its discussion of the probable course OF the mill
tary operations. There is no lack now of litera-
fure Of the war, but when this anonymous
pamphlet was published it was unique in being
the only deliberate attempt to estimate the Boer
resources for resistance and the probable lines
a4 SAT
Ions struggle and obstinate. desperate de-
fence were assumed foregone conclusions
The Boer campaign in Natal was described be-
fore a shot was fired only a necessary prel-
Uce TO the main defensive operations in the
Orange Free State. The first objective point
would not be a descent upon Durham and the
conquest Of Natal, but the capture Of Lady
smith, by which the Beers hoped TO obtain an
additional line Of communication by railway be-
tween Harrisnlith and Pretoria. AS soon as
they were confronted on the Orange River by
the army corps. operations would be transferred
10 the Free State. which designed TO be
their second and real theatre of defence.
On turning back to this pamphlet for an ex-
plsnation Of the ability Of the Beers at the
present stage OF operations. TO maintain resist
znce 10 the army of occupation when they have
no base ot supplies and system OF transport,
I find that the pages still retain their prophetic
quality. The authors prediction was that the
ridges between the rivers Of the Free State
would be defended one after another, and that
these would offer easy roads for the passage Of
OK teams. He assumed that the Boer COM
m6rdoes would not depend upon the railway
for supplies. Transport would be provided
from depots of supply and ammunition es-
iatlshed between the rivers at accessible points.
Ee asserted that arrangements had already been
made for carrying out this system Of supplies.
He named Suaithheld. Dewetsdorp. Thaba Nchu,
Winhurg and Senekal the chief supply sta
tons, and Fauresmith, Bethanie Brandfort and
other towns near the transverse ridges between
streams as secondary storehouses He contend
ed that this system would render the COM
mandoes independent Of transport train and
enable them to retain their mobility, to mass
quickly and 10 strike swift blows with flying col
umns on the British lines of communication.
AS this system Of defence would be continued
beyond the vaal, il is fair to infer that the
author expected that similar series of supply
stations would be maintained in the Trans
Yaal
II is only necessary to substitute secret hiding
places OF ammunition, military stores, saddles
and food for these established depots in towns
in order 10 obtain a clew 90 some OF the myste-
ries which have been battling the conjectures
Of experts. II the Beers in retreating from the
ridges buried their guns they were wellnigh
certain to have also hidden their military stores
az convenient points for use in future euer-
gencies While Lord Roberts. by his advance 10
Pretoria and subsequently to Koomatipoort
drove the bulk OF the enemy ahead OF him, the
Free State remained the best field Of Boer oper-
afions; and certain sections Of the Transvaal
on either side Of Pretoria have been persistently
held by remnants OF commanders. De Wet
Delarey and other Boer leaders have returned
again and again TO certain localities, and their
supply OF ammunition has never run short, al
though no base was in sight, and there was no
organized system OF transport. The entire course
OF what has been described guerilla warfare
may be readily explained on the theory that
there are secret sources OF supplies known TO
the leaders ar a distance from the towns gar
risoned by the British.
The author OF this pamphlet. writing on the
ot the outbreak OF the war, predicted pro-
longed and stubbornly contested defence OF the
Free State. He took IL for granted that the
Aldershot plan OF advance from Cape Colony
would be carried out, but assumed that the
Beers would anticipate It by throwing some
commanders over the Orange River and occu-
pying Storr1b burg and the mountainous district
around Colesburg. When forced to retire he ex-
pected the Beers TO defend the Orange River
line with great persistence and success. and
subsequently TO make a stand at every inter-
vening ridge between rivers all the way TO the
vaaI. and thence 20 Pretoria General Butler
however. upset these calculations by diverting
the bulk OF the army corps TO Natal for the re-
lief OF Jadysnith and by sending light column
without cavalry toward Kimberley; and Lord
Roberts subsequently confused the Beers and
a{r al of f,y