New-York tribune., 1901-03-14
civilized world her performance toward Japan
coTToy PREDICTIONS AND FACTS.


Mr. Nells estimate that the visible supply Of
cotton will be only go 600 bales the end of the
crop year has attracted considerable attention
but fortunately the trade has ceased to put
much confidence in this authority. In former
years Liverpool operators followed his predlc-
tions blindly, but three years ago heavy losses
were sustained by the faithful. At that time
the largest American crop record was com
ing forward. and middling uplands at New
York declined 5.31 cents. 1t is interest
ing notice that even after the remarKao-e
fall from II cents to Sa4 during the last few
weeks there is still excess of 6'' per ceh'
over the bottom record. Naturally, cotton fac
tors at the South who have contracts with plant
ers for all their crop heartily indofse Mt Nelli
latest circular and announce that it means at
least 10 cents pound for the closing months
of the season Some reaction would not be sur
rrfsng after the heavy decline Of 3'i cents from
the top hut the outlook for any sustained
strength Is not bright.
Three factors enter into the SITUATION ana
each of these is inmcal to fancy prices for the
staple. Greatest in Importance is the question
of consumption If a market cannot be secured
1t matters little whether the supply is few
hundred thousand bales more or less. state
ment was widely circulated recently emphasz-
ing the fact that in 1900 American mills con
at first glance this would appear to suggest
that the rapid increase of spindles at the South
was bearing fruit in much heavier demand
for the raw material As matter of fact, how
ever the larger OUTPUT of yarns and goods at
the South has less effect than the remarkable
restriction at English mills. and the situation
abroad is more noticeable Of late since exports
Of raw cotton from ports of the United states
show a loss of 10000 bales in the last five
weeks as compared with the same part OF last
year.
Domestic conditions clearly shown ny the
agreement To c,rtail spinning at the South, and
New-E England mills are vainly striving 10 hpld
out 10y heavy cuts in prices. While regular
print cloths are no longer an infalhe criterion
of the position it means something when the
reduction to :; cents is followed by another
To 27s Even at the second concession business
is slow Thus far this season Northern spin
ncrs have taken 49, 900 bales less than to the
same date last year. and even Southern con-
sumption has been slightly smaller. The total
visible supply Of American cotton is ;',l"i,269
bales which is within 110oo bales Of the figures
a year ago.
Next as 70 the size Of the present crop. Mr..
Neill sticks to his earlier estimate Of ?,1'hW0
bales \ few facts are available that point 70
a eavier yield. Since September The Finan-
cial CHRONICLES" reports that $50 100 bales have
come into sight, and il is interesting 10 note that
the amount for the first week of March was
lG1 Sl6 bales in the face Of declining prices,
whereas a year ago only 152 o62 bales We're re
ceived, although the price was a cent higher
after an advance to the highest point in seven
years conditions calculated to bring forward
all the available cotton. Tie last weeks move
ment was 1890 bales smaller than in the same
week Of 1N"N, and about double the figures Of
1891 ov 1896
Finally it IS shown by tn" unprecedented
sales II fertilizers and active preparations all
over the South that the next acreage will he the
largest ever planted This is a condition that
was 20 bc anticipated after year I'm which the
highest price in over a decade was quoted and
he entire seasons average has ho"n such rs 20
cause planters to regret that they hal not more
II the staple. Erection nf mills AZ the South
has been vigorously pushed and growers are in
turod 70 believe that this means So much more
law material required In the long how
eyer. total requirements are molc likely 70 de-
crease If prices are held unrcasorahly high.
Declining British cNnortS of cotton cloth during
the last year To the Far East whcr" the people
are less able spend freely. toll The story more
f eloquentIy than Mr. N"irs circular.