The Minneapolis journal., 1901-08-07
The SPRING WHEAT CROP

The Journal publishes exclusively
in Minnesota to-day the estimate Of the
wheat crop of Minnesota and the Dakotas
made by Mr. H. " Jones, editor Of the
Commercial West, and for more than ten
years commercial editor of T b e Jour-
nal.
This is the tenth estimate OF the wheat
crop of these three states made by Mr..
Jones from personal inspection, and it is
no exaggeration of the truth to say that
no mans opinion of the size and quality
of the crop is worth more in the grain ex-
changes of this country to-day than Mr.
Jones'.
He places the crop for the three states
at 1S3, 100000 bushels, and in doing so
makes it 100000 to 35,OOO,O 900 less than
other men of prominence in the grain
trade who have ventured an expression
of opinion as to the size of the crop. We
haven't any doubt, however, that Mr..
Jones' estimate will be received by the
trade as expressing as near as human
judgment can at this time the probable
wheat crop of these three states.
In this connection a little history is in
order.
Last year Mr.. Jones estimated the crop
of the same states at 1876, ,000, 900. The gov
ernment estimate was 9O,OOO,OOO, and none
of the experts went much above 1O0, ,OO0, 900.
For daring to express this widely differ
ing opinion Mr.. Jones was ridiculed, Wilt
fed, abused and denounced by all kinds Of
people-by those who might be expected to
know something of the situation, and by
those who had no means of knowing any
thing about it at all; but particularly by
these who were bulls in the wheat market
because, when his estimate was made pub
lie, the trade generally having come to re-
gard his opinion as worth having. the
market showed the immediate effect. Mr..
Jones was accused of venality and T g
Journa / was declared by some of it's
contemporaries, and by scores Of men
throughout the northwest who were specu-
lating in wheat on the bull side, to have
deliberately undertaken to depress the
market to the great loss Of northwestern
wheat producers. 1t was gratifying, how
ever, to find fair-minded people and the
most experienced men in the grain trade
generally accepting The Journa rs
estimate as made at least in good faith
and probably more nearly correct than
those emanating from any other source.
The great grain trade papers Of the coun-
try, while not always adopting T e
] m rs estimate, were generally in
clined to believe that it was not far from
the correct figure.
Mr.. Jones stood by his estimate in spite
of all criticism, friendly and unfriendly,
and 7 h Q Journal offered no apologies
Its aim was to give as nearly a correct a
statement of the facts as possible, unin-
fiuenced by any consideration except that
of desire to print the truth. On any
other basis no estimate is ever worth any
thing, and no estimate made without
personal inspection of the fields them
terial value.
The crop year of 1900 and 1901 ended
on the first of August. We now have the
actual receipts together with the ordinary
distribution with which to compare esti-
mates made at the beginning of the year
The detailed statement of the facts is
given in another column. It appears that
during that time the receipts at Mime
apolis and Duluth amounted to 100, ,000, 900
of bushels. Allow the usual amount for
+L0 fOr
seed and other home consumption of co.,
100000; the amount destroyed by rain
after the estimates were made, 1000, 000
and 10000, 900 as carried over August 1st
in the hands of producers, and we have
total of 167,000,OOO. Deduct old wheat
carried over from the crop Of 1899, 15,OOO,
O00 and deduct wheat received from Kan
sas City, IL 900, ,000-the latter amount be-
ing determined by the records, and the
former doubtless a liberal estimate-and
we have 81, 0OO, 900 to be taken from the to-
tai distribution, leaving net crop for 1900
of 140,000,O00 bushels, which is 100000
more than Mr.. Jones' estimate made a
year ago, which was ridiculed and de-
nounced as very much too high.
For a matter upon which so much de-
pendence must be placed in human expe-
rience and human judgment, and about
which nothing can certainly be known,
this, indeed, is remarkable vindication
and one which in all decency calls for
apologies from those who were so free
with their denunciations and ridicule a
year ago. And while such apologies are
not expected, there can be no doubt that
the result will have the effect of further
Strengthening the confidence of the grain
trade generally in the figures furnished by
Mr.. Jones as result of his long, extended
and painstaking investigation of the condi-
tion and proportions Of the present years
crops.
The British empire Is still to be an en-
pire without an emperor and must strug-
oil oil rryifh