The Montgomery advertiser., 1901-11-10
Weekly Cotton Review.

(by H. M. Scale & Co.)
 Crop estimates being now in order. let us see what with the lights before us can De figured out. as to the probable size of the present crop.
 The first basis for calculation suggest ing itself, is the monthly Government report the last of which was compiled about October l, and shows a condition of the plant on September 25 as 61 4 against 67 the same time last year, or 5.6 lower than at that time The acre age as reported by the Bureau is in round figures H,50O0OO as against 25,OOO, 900 last year, or an increase of It per cent Applying these figures to the commer- cial crop of last year. viz.: 1O,3S3, 422, we get the following result: Crop of last year 1O3S3,422, plus 10 per cent. increase in acreage. 11,421 ,764 less 5.6 points in making the crop of 1901 and 1902 10, 466. .9O5. A calculation mere speculation but no less interesting, can be made by com pairing receipts for the first two months of this m season with those, of former years. The per cent. brought into sight during these two months for the past hfteen years ranges from 26.44 in 1897, to 36 in 1896. If We assume that the as the slowest of these fifteen crops, we find that crop of 10,747, 100 balesfs in- dicated, the receipts to November 1 be- ing 2,S4l. .613 bales.
 But what reasons can we give for as- suming this? True, with the exception or Texas, the crop was late, but by October 1 this lateness was overcome, and producers had all the cotton open that they could handle
 Compare this with some of the latest crops We have had. viz.: 1886. 1888, 1S93 1894. 1895 and 1900. and you will find the per cent. marketed by November l of those years greater than the one as- stunned in the above calculation. On the other hand, the weather throughout the Belt was just such as would accelerate the movement to market, and to give as much better grounds for assuming that a greater per cent. of the crop has come into sight. than the one we base the above calculation on. Again, can 1t be said that the cotton is being held out of sight? All the information obtainable on this subject indicates that very little to reason that the producer should not have proflted by the sad experience of the many who held their cotton last sea son, all of whom lost heavily.
 Another interesting question Is coming to the front now, what will the Govern ment estimate be? This estimate will be published on December 2, and Will be based on the average yield ot seed cot ton per acre. the total production or seed cotton as compared with last year, the number of bales ginned from August 15 to November 20. as compared with last year and the weight of bales. aiso the acreage picked as compared win the acreage planted The Government estl- mate deals with the actual, not the com mercial crop, and the statistician claims, after getting the reports or the cotton of last years crop remaining ous , ". sight on September ]. that he mlsseu IdSt years actual figure by only very small per cent.
 It does not seem reasonable that the Government estimate should vary mate rially from the deductions we araW rom m the October report, and we expect u ID
 Montgomery, Ala, Nov. 9. 1901.