The times., 1901-05-02
The War Menace in Europe.

| with the responsibilities of one.
| The War Menace in Europe.
If American alarmists. perhaps sin
cerely, and British writers of the same
sort, only insincerely, would pause to
consider an important prudential reason
why Germany should arm, and particu-
| Iarly why she should rapidly increase
| her fleet, there would be less talk about
the alleged bad feeling in the Teutonic
Empire against the United States.
That there are commercial differences
between the people Of this country and
the Germans, growing out of active
| competition in manufacture and COM
merce, goes without saying. But they
refer to matters which reciprocity or
some other give-and- take policy might
easily adjust. There is nothing in the
| current relations of Washington and
| Berlin. nor in the visible ambitions of
| the German Government, to create un-
| easiness on this side of the water. Ger
many feels the need of new markets ex-
| actly as we do; will seize and occupy
| them where she can, just as we have
done and will do; but that she is even
squirting in the direction Of accom-
plishing commercial expansion through
| war with America to destroy the Mon
roe Doctrine at the present time seems
to be a ridiculous proposition.
That is an excellent rule which says
| that one must not assume super
| natural when a natural cause viii ac-
| count for a given phenomenon. Under
it we are entitled TO look for the reason
of armament and naval activity in Ger
many rather in European than in
trans-At tlantic conditions. And, in pass
ing. we may be allowed TO remark that
the great population of German origin
in the United States, loyal at once to
its American allegiance, but equally
loyal to the traditions of the Father
land presents something almost in the
nature of a buffer State in opposition to
the chance of a physical conflict be-
tween the oldest and the youngest of
Germanic Empires.
The First Napoleon was wrong in de-
tail when he said that in fifty years Eu-
rope would be republican or Cossack.
II was not given to a man in his gen.
Grafton to know the action and reaction
of the forces which changed the rela-
tons Of men and States in the three
quarters of the nineteenth century
which followed his death. But ii is ev-
ident that he did have q very luminous
idea concerning the persistent and re-
morseless march which Russia would
make toward world power and in the
direction of preponderating power in
Continental Europe. His warning was
lost neither upon the statesmen of his
time nor upon those who have succeed
ed them. The diplomacy of the Powers
from 1890 TO the present is replete with
illustrations OF the fact that the west
ern movement of Russia has been and
still is dreaded by the States of west
ern Europe, and by England. In the
minds of acute observers of the trend
OF Old World high politics. it has long
been a commonplace to hold that Rus
sia only awaits favorable chances to
make the Baltic Sea Russian lake, and
to plant the Greek Cross upon the
Church Of st. Sophia in Copstantinopie.
With such "a possibility in contempla-
tion. is ii any wonder that Germany,
herself a Baltic Power, should sit up
and take notice?"
1t is only necessary TO call attention
10 political conditions in the Kingdom
Of Sweden Norway to indicate the dan
gers which threaten the peace Of north
ern Europe Sweden and Norway are
under single dynasty, but are not con
nected otherwise. II IS TO be regretted
that the two peoples are far from being
homogeneous in thought, spirit. Ian
guage. or institutions. In short, they
are antipathetic. and the antipathy
there ig some reason to suspect, has
been fostered by Russia.
It Is limited that Germany and Rus
sia may have an understanding on the
subject OF closing the mouth of the
Baltic in the event OF war between
Russia and Sweden; but 1t would ap-
pear 10 be much more likely that. If
such an arrangement exists. 1T Is be-
tween Russia and Sweden. and based
upon far different grounds. We notice
that, In some quarters. the theory that
the Austro- Hungarian Empire is near
ing its end, and that 1t may fall in
pieces at the death OF Franz Josef, is
secuted as chiplerical. 1t is equally
worthy Of attention that. this is not the
view taken by leaders of the German,
Czech, and Slav elements which go to
make up the heterogeneous State which
IN no chronological sense can be called a
nation. Consideringf the tendency of
the day to race consolidation and soIi-
darity, IL would be easy TO construct the
theory that Russia might try TO gain
control OF the Austrian Slavs. just as
undoubtedly she aims to take over the
Greek Christians or the Balkan penin-
sula when that shall be feasible. AS a
means Of rounding out her power, ii is
not less probable that Russia enter
tains the hope Of ultimately being able
to capture the great Scandinavian pen
insula and hold 1t as a menacing front
TO England, and as Rock Of Gibraltar
dominating the Baltic Sea-. To say that