The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1901-10-24
I. NJ. AVER & co.'s COTTON LETTER.
Especial to News and Ohseryerl

New York, Oct. 23.-For a week past,
the bears nave dominated the market and
as consequence, there has been a de-
cline OF 4O points. A week ago. weather
reports, together with the statistical posi-
tion, gave the bulls considerable strength
and the decline has been something of a
surprise to some of the most pronounced
bears. 1t may be said that reports of
good weather generally during the week,
together with the support given the hears
by strong spot purchasing concerns, have
been the main factors in the slump. The
liberal movement of cotton for the past
few days has also been of some aid to the
bearish contingent. The statistical posi-
ton, however, is one that under normal
conditions ought to give persistent
strength to the market. This position may
be briefly summarized as follows: For
the past six years, the worlds consump-
tion Of cotton has been, in round num-
bers, 77,792,000 bales; an average of H.
965, 900 bales per annum. For the same
time the worlds production has been, in
round numbers, 76,99S, 900 bales, or an
average of 1888, 900 bales per year. The
consumption, therefore, for six years past
has been nearly 500, 600 bales more than
the production. At the beginning of the
season of 1876, the supply of cotton
amounted to about 3400,0 600 bales. At the
beginning of the season of 1912, six
years afterward, the total worlds sup
ply was 100000 bales. 1t is we'll known
that for the crop of 1902 there has been
an increase in acreage, but the conditions
for production have been more unfavor-
able than for six years past. The Gov
eminent report of conditions made Oeto-
Der list, for the past six years, show an
average of $685. while the report for 1901
stated the condition at 61.4. 1t may be
estimated therefore, that the increase in
acreage is practically offset by the de-
crease in favorable conditions. Estimates
of the production for 1912 vary from
below 10000, 900 to above 10, 500 900 bales
The maximum mean of estimates may be
stated at 10, SOC, 900. Add to this the sup
ply on hand at the beginning of the sea-
son 1902 (2,600,000) and also the foreign
crop, which, under favorable conditions
cannot exceed 100000 and it will APP
pear that the total worlds supply cannot
much exceed, at a liberal estimate, 15,
900, 900 bales. Therefore, if the worlds
consumption for the current year shall
equal the average for the past six years,
the supply at the end of the season will
be very little in excess of 2100, 900 bales.
AS a matter of fact, however, the con-
sumption for the last four years has
shown a material increase over the pre-
ceding two. This average is 13,595,000
bales, and if the consumption for the cur
rent year should equal the average for
the past four, the surplus at the end
of the season will be only 1,500, 900 bales.
This would be the lowest world surplus
carried over for any year With nthe
past ten. With such statistical position,
1t easily appears that only serious de-
preston of bushes, in some consuming
countries, can warrant low price for
cotton for any lengthy period. We are
of the opinion that holders of cotton will
find it advantageous to move their hold
ings gradually and slowly, and that in
vestors can purchase contracts at present
quotations, with favorable results, if they
invest for a long term.