The watchman and southron. [volume] (Sumter, S.C.) 1881-1930, 1901-11-06
crease 1,o71, 42o bales for the states

crease l,o71,4 bales for the states
named.
They also figure decrease in the fol-
lowing states: Florida, 1858: Ala
bama, 5000; Tennessee, 81, 512: Texas,
l,3i7, ,O69: Arkansas, 120, 472: Indian
Territory, Oklahoma and others, 201,-
9O7. Total decrease for the states
named, l, 724, 932 bales.
Deducting the increase from the de-
crease we have, according to their esti-
mate, net decrease from last years
crop of 653, 412 bales, which deducted
from the crop of 1900, which was TO-
425, 600, leaves a yield of 9,771, 5SS
bales for the present crop.
My own judgment is that they have
made the increase in the old states too
much, and figured too low on the
actual decrease in the Mississippi
section. Ny opinion is that the crop
will reach 10000, 900 bales Judging
from all the information had up to
date.
Whether or not the crop can be or
will be increased in Texas by top
crop if frost is much longer delayed I
put but little faith in.
COTTON FAMINE IN PROSPECT.
Mr.. Ellison, the statistician for the
European spinners on consumption,
has made the statement recently that
the world will require not less than
II, 500, 600 bales of Amerian cotton dur
ing the next 12 months to meet the
demand of consumers. There was but
little or no good cotton on hand at the
opening of the present season carried
over in stock from the crop of last
year hence if Mr.. Ellison is correct,
and he usually is, and our crop does
not yield more than 10000, 600 bales,
there will bessa big cotton famine next
year unless trade conditions should get
decidedly worse than they now are.
Quoting from one of my New York
correspondents, whose letter was re-
ceived on October 26, reviewing the
cotton situation, he says: The future
market in New York has been un-
mercifully hammered the last ten
days by Philadelphia spot people in
conjunction with others for no other
reason, the writer believes, than to
weaken the faith of holders in the
south in their staple. Unless all re-
ports coming into our Office are will
fully and basely exaggerated, which
we do not believe to be the case, this
crop of cotton will possibly be the
smallest which has been made since
'96. In this case cotton should bring,
instead of 734 cents, 121a cents. We
will have next summer, unless trade
conditions are miserable or we should
have international wars or some great
calamity should overtake US, the
greatest cotton famine we have ever
seen in this country or in Europe.
The people who handle the actual cot
ton are using every endeavor to get the
farmers production for nothing this
year, and while I do not know how
you can prevent it, you should certain
ly use your utmost endeavor to induce
farmers and merchants to hold the
remainder of their crop for at least
a legitimate price, which would GER
tainly not be less than 10 cents per-
pound. and the writer believes that
it would bring much more later on.
''The market here is being sold now
on big receipts in the south, also on
the theory that cotton is making every
day as fast as it did in August, and
that should we not have frost for three
weeks longer this will be bumper
crop. Of course, this is ridiculous. as
we know, but it is hard to convince
people who know nothing Of the staple
of what are actual facts. With all of
YOUR airing last summer of the rules
of this exchange, they have not been
changed. -
There is considerable truth in the
letter quoted, as every farmer south
who is posetd or the situation must
admit. I have all the season contend
ed that if we could get ten cents last
season we were certainly entitled to
it this season.
The stock of cotton in New York at
present is quite low, and if the farm
ers and merchants should now hold the
balance of the crop and insist upon
better prices we could control the
market in less than 80 days. If the
farmers will read the daily market re-
ports in their papers they will see that
the only factor which has enabled the
buyers to depress prices this fall has
been heavy receipts. Cotton has not
been bought on a bsais of value, but
solely on the power to. dictate prices
on an overcrowded market during a
short period Of time. We must study
the situation more, have more concert
of action and gradually demand what
is our due.
Harvie Jordan.
Ae,,s,,r, Nureoo nhornod W;}h