Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1901-04-26
THE RESULT OF A WAGER
DINNER GIVEN DIRECTOR MERRIAM
AND OTHER CENSUS OFFICIALS.
MIR. Robert II. Porter the Host
Guesses on COuntry's Population
Loving Cup Presented.


were entertained by Robert P. Porter, who
was director of the eleventh. census, at a
banquet at the Hotel Gordon last night. A
year ago at a banquet of officers and ex-
officers of the census a discussion arose as
to what the population of the United States
would be shown to be by the twelfth CEN
lation would be 76,000,0O0 DIR. Herman
H3iierith. chief of the tabulating division.
bet the figure would be 76Oo0.0O1. He won
the wager, which was paid last night. Be
fore the population figures were known in
the census Office and during the progress of
the tabUiation the chief statisticians formed
a population pool of 81 each, the proceeds to
be devoted TO the purchase of a loving cup,
to become the property of the one whose
guess proved the most accurate. Last
night the envelopes containing the gueSseS
We're opened. and the cup awarded to j. 5.
Lord, whose estimate was 7G004.411, or
within about 3OoUn of the true popul ton.
The guesses were: Population, 1906 2922
Hoiierith. I6@H.t@l Barrows. 77,777,T7T;
BooS, I1...E).2mi: Day. 1887 GJ4: Gannett
7o.e"3,"e: Hunt -. 1891: King, 1876 .2S
Koch. 30: Langley. 76645 235: Lord,
t6."aI,f11 Mackrile, -. 1853. 3:},::s: McCauley,
I3.Hs6,i23: Merriam. 1l.I6n, 900; Newcomb,
tI.2tS,613; Newell. 80, a ,0N9; Porter, 16. WM,-
COO: North. 7S.304,o35: Osgood. 1851 ga
Parker. 1-,,,:,3 I:,:5: PETERS. I6, 800 600; Pow
ers. 76,717.177: Rice, 76 75a 9l7 Sloane. 10
491 800; Steuart. 1883, 40: Stnson, 1854
236; Stoddard, 1j.446.1S5: Wilcox. 1926 900:
Wines, 169S4,315; Wright. - $50 2I2.
Mr.. Porfer's Remarks
Before opening the envelopes containing
the guesses Mr.. Porter said:
Il sincerely trust the public will not
think the stattsticians Of the country are
organized into a trust for the purpose of
~, 49,;
years ago Il prominent Massachusetts
writer said to me he had no faith In sta
tistics because from his observation the
existing chiefs of the various government
statistical bureaus spent most of their time
correcting the mistakes and errors of their
predecessors This has not been the case
with the census bureau.
The enumeration which / had the honor
to make in 1890 established the general
accuracy of the Walker census, while the
enumeration just completed goes far to-
ward establishing the general accuracy of
the eleventh census. There are people
around this table who have taken an ac-
tive part in all the enumerations and they
can substantiate the claim. I wish COR
daily to congratulate Director Merriam and
his able staff of statisticians on the salts
factory and rapid manner in which the
enumeration has been completed. and DR..
Hollerith upon the dispatch which he has
shown in the mechanical tabulation. Per-
haps no one in the country can better APP
preciate the magnitude of the task than l,
for l have been through it and am here to
tell the story.
at the dinner you gave me before the
work was begun. l was the only man IN
the United States who had enjoyed that
experience. l am glad to have such a
robust colleague and friend to share the
honor with me. AS to the results of the
enumeration. probably we shall learn more
tonight when the estimates are opened.
but in a general way, as l have time and
again ccntended. the aggregate depends so
much more upon the activities of the peo-
pie that. until we have annual returns of
births and deaths and marriages, We shall
be- always subject to surprise. True, / had
more immigrants than General Merriam,
but then he had the children of my innli-
grants, who We're worth more numerically.
The percentage of increase, however is de-
creasing and will continue to do so.
Expansion may bring us to a hundred
million, but with the general increase of
the birth rate. it is not surprising that We
reached 7G,oo0,oo0. which, you will remem-
Der. was my limit"
Mr.. Lord winner Of the loving cup was
not able to be present. but q dispatch an
nouncing the result was sent to him.
Expresses Appreciation.
Director Merriam, in a brief speech, eX-
pressed appreciation of the loyal support
given him by all the officers of the census.
He made the statement that with the Phil
ippines and Porto Rico to enumerate in
1910 an approximately accurate census
would not be possible unless the census Of
flee should be established as permanent
bureau of the government. He was fol-
lowed by Mr.. Carroll d. Wright, Mr.. John
Hyde. Mr.. w. +. Wilcox, Mr. William c.
Hunt. DIR. Henry Gannett, Mr., L. G. Pow
ers and Mr.. Herman Holerth, nearly all
of whom urged the necessity of a perma-
nent census bureau.
Those present were William R. Merriam
Carroll D. Wright. DR.. Henry Gannett
William c. Hunt, w. A King, L. G. Pow
ers, Edward McCauley, w. F. Wilcox, H
A. Barrows. John w. Langley. c. s.
Sloane, John Hyde, H. T. Newcomb, E. W.
Parker, DR.. Herman Hollerith j. c. Stod-
dard, Hurl Momsen, w. r. Macrille, D. j.
PETERS, Edward Koch, George E. Boos
j. d. StinsOn, w. NJ. Steuart, w P. Spur
geon. o. E. Braitmayer, Leonard Dar-
byshire. Letters of regret were received
from Dr. Fred II. Wines, Col. j. D. Sanger
DR.. John S. Billings, Mr.. S. N D. North,
Or. David I. Day. ]. S. Lord, Gen. A. "
Price and Mr.. Whitman Osgood.