The Washington times., 1901-07-29
STOCK MARKET COMMENT.
Significance of the Saturday Bank
Statement Figures.
Belief That the Small Corn Crop
VIII BE Offset by iieavy Yield
of Whent at Good Priccs-EuroDeau
Demand Likely to BE Large.

Belief That the Small Corn Crop
VIII BE Offset by Heavy Yield
of wheat at Good Prices-European
Demand Likely to BE Large.
NEW YORK, July 2s.-In its sS,0oo0oO
gain of cash reserve yesterdays weekly
bank statement made a more favorable
showing than indications warranted. In
the matter of loans the statement is mis-
leading but must be Judged with especial
care. 1t was sufficiently well understood.
when the statement appeared, that the
s1l. goo increase reported in loans was
connected with the SO, 100000 Increase of
one local institutions capital. When the
statements of individual banks were pub
lished later, it appeared that all but
two to three millions of this total loan
increase had occurred in the loans of the
bank which enlarged its capital. This CO.
incidence naturally confused the general
statement: for the loans being made for
that special purpose reappeared as capital
and not deposit liability. Surplus re-
serve. being figured IN deposits only,
went higher despite the loan increase.
The statement, however, shows some in
creased general borrowing
Almost the only movement of conse-
quence in yesterdays security market,
was the further and rather sharp advance
in the Steel Corporation shares. The ex-
PLANTATION OF this advance is to be found
in a general belief that the strike will
soon collapse
The nature and extent of the agricul-
turai disaster are by this time sufficiently
well known to remove the corn crop
shortage from the domain of mere con-
lecture or interested fabrication. The
.-pa a flla rlrobs hilify now seems be
&. that the yield will turn out something
like 1.6o0. 600 bushels In other words,
the loss has been rather short of one
fourth of the crop. TIE corn harvest
on the basis of these figures. would be the
smallest since 1894, and. with that excep-
tion. the smallest in eleven years.
1t is something to know where We really
stand as regards this important factor in
domestic commerce and finance-more par
ticularly since the reassuring elements
may now be more safely reckoned up. The
bad results of the memorable Western
drought may have been to some extent
exaggerated. 1t is, to be sure, unfortu-
nately true that good deal written on
the subject from the optimistic side has
been mere nonsense. The reasoning en-
ployed by some of our more buoyant news
paper philosophers, based on the theory
of high prices as compensation for short
crops. would make general loss of half
a harvest a national blessing. Farmers
and business men know better.
On the other hand however, profes-
sionaI pessimists have overdone things
quite as unwarrantaby. 1t is only within
a week that the market has begun to un-
derstand how genuine is the prospective
compensation provided by the wheat crop.
nf ne
port of this other staple must have opened
some eyes to the possibilities. Last July
shipments of wheat and -four from the
United States footed up some IL 100000
bushels, with an entered value of $9.491,-
o0c. The greatest export of any month
in our history consisted of the 100000
bushels sent out in November. 1898, with
q value of s19o00.oDO. If exports for the
balance of this month We're to hold to
the past weeks level. the record for July,
1901, would be % 10000 bushels. worth on
exchange not much less than Si1,0o1,0o0
In other words. we should start the new
fiscal year with an export of this cereal
never, either in quantity or value, equaled
in midsummer, and never parelieled but
once or twice in any month.
This showing gives some clue to the
bearing of harvest prospects on rnterna-
tionai exchange. The price of wheat is
fairly high; therefore its buying of these
huge quantities is the best witness to Eu-
ropes actual needs. What we know re-
garding the foreign wheat crop-an i'm
portant factor now, as always, in our
foreign credits-is that the yield of the
outside world will pretty certainly fan
below its average. Very probably, for
eign consumers, who are not as prosper
i,, ff.s .I
year or two ago, will be less aggressive
buyers. But this. apparently. will as yet
affect the price. rather than the quantity
consumed. In fact, the ordinary trade
supplies are below the average. So far
as the markets go. it seems to be rea-
sonably assured that America will raise
the largest wheat crop in its history, and
will sell far more than its usual allow
ance In the foreign markets.
This is a highly fortunate phase of the
situation. because. aside from the decrease
I'm corn exports. this coming fiscal year. 1t
is almost certain that manufactured ex-
ports will fall off. 1t appears from the
classified trade returns for the last twelve
months. issued by the Treasury, that the
decrease from the fiscal year 1900 was
Sz3.0o0.odo. This Is a really trifing change
when it is kept in mind that, gainst
the s4S3. 10000 ia 1900. We shipped as re-
Gently as the fiscal year 1888 orIy $780,.
6A.u and that the total then attained !
WAS deemed very large. Three reasons |
why decrease from recent high totals |
IS absolutely certain, are, that foreign |
demand for manufactures-notably of iron |
has contracted enormously; that Euro |
pean production has not been curtailed |
at all, and that American home demand |
is so active as to make wholesale cut |
trade. wholly unlikely recourse. A |
heavy curtailfnent Of our annual foreign |
credit" can be easily enough sustained, |
however.