New-York tribune., 1901-05-03
CONFLICTING corroN CONDITIONS.


Not only planters and spinners at the South.
mill owners in New England and spectators at
the exchanges. but consumers of goods every
where are interested in price fluctuations of cot
ton. From about nine pounds of wool per
capita consumed formerly in this country the
substitution of cotton in the cheaper grades OF
cloth has reduced the proportion by almost
third. while the amount OF cotton has risen 10
about twenty-five pounds for each inhabtant.
About a third of the wool consumed is I'M
ported and on the other hand two-thirds of
the cotton grown is sent abroad. Unparalleled
activity IN all branches OF business at the
South this year is mainly due TO the enormous
profits on the last crop. and the results of the
next yield will be equally far reaching in effect
on general prosperity. Hence. every report re-
garding supply and demand receives attention.
There Is much that is depressing to values
in statistics that have lately appeared. and
while better prices arouse enthusiasm among
growers 1t is not wise to ignore the fact that
there is much TO be said on the other side. AL
though the old crop year is far advanced. port
receipts continue persistently heavy, each week
showing a marked increase over last years
movement. The crop year opened with a visible
supply much smaller than in any recent year,
and it estimated that the light yield would
leave an Insignificant amount on September l.
however, for the present stock is little below
the average at this date since 1895 and the
rate of decrease is about half that during April
in other years 1t is no easy matter to sustain
quotations in the face of ample supplies
Consumption is unquestiona bly, light. Despite
the striking increase in number OF spindles at
the South. mills in that section have actually
taken less raw material than they did last year
10 date. while Northern spinners have taken
5000 bales less. There was a vigorous for
eign demand last fall because OF the fear that
prices would advance to a prohibitive point. but
after loading up with expensive cotton British
and other European manufacturers found their
market for goods restricted by the higher
quotations they were compelled to ask for
goods In the three months ending March 81
Great Britain alone reported decrease OF 40
1S71Oo yards in shipments OF cotton cloth. and
6.596,OO0 pounds of yarns. as compared with the
first quarter of 1900 Owing 10 the advance in
price. however, the value increased fG9i.912.
This loss in quantity of goods manufactured
has resulted In such light movement of
material In recent months that instead OF the
heavy increase over last year that was seen in
the opening months OF the crop season there is
now an excess of only 10000 bales. which is
being reduced nearly every week.
Meanwhile there are few strong arguments
against any further decline In prices. From the
top point In January there was a reaction IN
two months of $40 30 a bale. after which a mod
crate recovery would appear reasonable. From
a speculative point of view there Is also danger
to operations the short side. owing to the
comparatively light stocks held here. Cen
eral prosperity throughout the country cannot
fail to cause good domestic demand for goods
when seasonable weather brings out the tardy
spring buying. and the high level of all COM
modify prices must be shared by this staple.
Unprecedented sales of fertilizers pointed to
extensive preparations for a record breaking
acreage. but many Of these orders have been
cancelled since the decline in cotton made the
outlook less attractive to planters, while un-
usually cold weather has retarded planting in
many sections to such an extent that there will
be danger of damage by frost at the other end
of the season. Moreover some early sown cot
ton has been ruined and will be replanted
which adds to the expense of the crop. The
cost will also be enhanced this year IN the mat
ter of labor to extent never before known In
the South. Development of oil fields, railways
and other industries has taken hands away
from plantations. and II will be necessary to
Conditions have changed In this respect so ex-
tensivey that even II the yield should exceed
twelve million bales there could be return
to the five-cent cotton OF 1898.