Arizona republican., 1901-05-08
Interesting Computation of Its
 Probable Life
The Showing a Half Century Hence. The Fluctuations of the Tide of Increase and Decrease -Congres- sional Action.

fNllllCls ny Ni hh' ptN'h '' "'' of it's beneflciares. said a pension ofii- cial to the Washington Star.
 The question of even the probable date when the roll will expire by vir- tue of the eiasure of the last name thereon cannot be stated, Even as to old soldiers this Is true. though their number Is steadily lessening by reason of the deaths of the veterans. As to the beneficiaries. which include widows. minor children and dependent parents. an increase is shown,
 An interesting probable result con corning the question may, however, be determined with a little care and few figures. What the actual result may be twenty-five years hence remains to be seen. as possible wars and new legis- lation will change present calculations and conclusions.
 Let uS put it in comprehensive form. During the past five years there were 45.3+i pensioners added to the roll. Of these 1899 were the restored names of those who for various reasons had been dropped.
 By reason of the death, remarriage or other causes there were dropped from the roll +3.3S4 pensioners. or dif- ference of 2.0l0 on the side of the in- crease. the roll having grown that amount over all sources Of decrease in a year.
 The total number on the roll at the close of the year as 99S.52 With the roll increasing at the average rate of 1000 a year. a date when correspond : ing decrease would ensue cannot be fixed. but it is possible to show when IL would be closed out entirely. assum- ing that the increase ceased. If the in crease and decrease are equal. or com paratively so. the roll will remain sta tionary like flood tide. with slight fluctuations in various years as the old soldiers die off. and new names of their benetclaries. and of the spanish war veterans and their beneficiaries. are added
 But if there was.io be no increase at all, and an annual average decrease of 43.OOO names. which has been about the average decrease during the past five years. the roll would be exhausted in twenty-threc years. ar in 1924
 ''lf. therefore, 1t would take twenty three years to exhaust tho roll at this ratio of decrease in the assumed ab- sence of any increase. the passing of the middle of the present century may show comparatively slight change. be- cause, while the old soldiers will all be dead by 1850. unless they are alive as ctntenarians. their benefciaries will have taken their places together with the veterans of the Spanish war. if not those of possible other wars.
 Tt will be seen. consequently, that tn ematter is largely conjectural and must remain forever SO We will take the Mexican war veterans as a further illustration. Though this war ended ffty-fve years ago. there are still S.s5s survivors of that war on the roll. and S.l5l widows. or a total of l6. .4e4 bene- hciaries. In the past four years the survivors of this war have decreased 2.S42, but the number of widows of these veterans has Increased on the roll 70 in the total number as compared to four years ago.
 The survivors of the Indian wars on the roll have decreased 900 in four years, and there are but 1870 of these veterans left on the iolls. The widows of the soldiers of these wars have de- creased from 4.2ss to 3.730. and the wid- ows Of the veterans of the war of 1872 have decreased from 2.s1O to 1.742 dur ing the same period. there being but one veteran pensioner of this war alive
 Ihese figures last given are useful on the question of decrease. as the wars In which the veterans fought are passed half century. and while they cannot he taken as basis of figuring the de- crease of the veterans of the civil war. they are instructive on the question of the existence of the roll itself.
 "On the assumption that the roll would show no material decrease in number in twenty-three years for the reasons I have heretofore stated. there would at that date be a large decrease In the total amount thereof. for the req son that the pensions paid benef,cia rIes are much smaller individually and i'm the gross aggregate than those paid to the old soldiers. The civil war ended thirty-six years ago If we assume mat every pensioner came out of the war at the age of 25. twenty-rhree years hence, If alive. all would be sl years Of age. This Is an improbable assumption, and Is made for the pur- pose of illustration only. as many thou sands of veterans were over forty at the close or the war These latter men must be 76 years of age now, and would he 9s twenty-three years hence. By the middle of the present century. there Tore. If any of the survivors of the civil war are alive. all must be at that date over one hundred years of age. unless they came out of the war as veterans at the age of fourteen.
 oh the question of the decrease in amount, if the roll lost about ASA. GOO Ia st year, though 1t increased in number Z.efo the more disabled a pensioner is the greater the amount of his pension and also the greater his chances of dFin& over the more able bodied. If ]" probable that the reduction on inc score ef high pensions will run up into the hundreds of thousands. If not mill lions, within the next five to ten years. But where one of these pensioners dies d Deheilciary or pensiOner of another war takes his place at greatly re- duced yearly pension. however. in the former instance.
 The increase and decrease in size and amount of the pension roll is a matter or congressional action. As in-