The Marble times and Crystal silver lance., 1901-07-05
The Price of Silver.

Inc price VI SllVer DelOW w coHli
and with slight tendency downwardi
is matter of the greatest concern tt
our western people. For many appar
emily inscrutable reasons the price o
silver is generally weaker in the frs
half of the year than the latter half
The main causes of fall or rise II
the price of silver are the conditions
of general commerce, the amount o
crops to be handled and the conditions
in the Orient. With all these condi
tions favorable the value of silver has
tendency to rise, with the conditions
adverse it will fall, with some favora
BILE and others unfavorable the price
will have little tendency to fall or rise
In forecasting the general CONNER
cial conditions the barometer usually
noted is the condition, production and
price of pig iron. When trade is good,
with constant expansion of business, a
great deal of iron is required; railroads
want more, the building trade wants
more, the factories and machine shops
require more equipment, more ships
are needed. Hence if trade is good
the iron production is greatly in
creased with good prices. We find
that whilst the production for the first
five months of the year 1900 was 6,245,
600 tons, for the year 1901 only 5,971,
300 tons were produced, falling off
of production of pa, 300 tons. That
the market is not understocked is
shown by the fact that the ruling
prices for iron are much less this year
than last. Another rem arkable fact is
that the production of copper has
greatly fallen off and the exports OF
that metal are 10000 tons less for this
year and the corresponding time last
year, or more than so per cent. All
these facts tend to prove that business,
if not failing off, is stationary. AS a
great deal of the silver produced is
used in the arts the commercial demand
for that metal will be less.
We do not pose as agricultural ex-
perts, but from the best information
we can get it appears that the crops
will be normal throughout the world
this year, providing that there are no
drouths, etc., which may upset calcu-
lations. So far as this feature is con-
cerned, the influence is normal.
AS for the Oriental trade the outlook
is exceedingly good. The development
of the Philippines will call for a great
deal of silver, and now that the China
question is well on the way for settle
ment we may look for great revival
of trade in that empire. The Oriental
trade is even now greatly on the in
crease, as evidenced by the fact that
So, 100, 900 more silver was exported to
the east during the first four months
of this year than the corresponding
period of last year.
We have thus out of the three ruling
factors one normal, one unfavorable
and one favorable. Therefore we be-
lieve that silver will see no drop in
price, this year at all events, but that
that it will carry out its normal pro-
gram and rise cent or two in price
during the fall months.
A factor we have not considered, and
which is too uncertain to figure on, is
the action of the smelter trust. 1t is
the avowed policy of the Guggenheims
to endeavor to raise the price of silver.
Controlling as they practically do the
output of the North American conti-
nent, and not a little of the South
American production, they may be
able to carry out their policy. So far,
If they have tried to do what they said
they would do, their success is nil.
We believe that the only immediate
hope for great advance in silver lies
in the Guggenheims. Yet a great in
crease in value OF silver may lead to
heavier production and thus render
the undertaking too heavy for even
the smelter trust to carry Mining
Record.