The Saint Paul globe., 1901-07-14
ESTIMATES TOO BIC
WILL NOT EXCEED 7O,0OO,-
900 BUSHELS
BAD GUEssEs WERE MADE
Foreigners VIII Buy More of the
Cereal This Year Than for
Several Seasons
Past

II. V, Jones, the Minneapolis expert
statistician in the Commercial West
gives his views as to the probable wheat
cIop OF the country as follows:
IN the c-Os.ng Gays Of May an estimate
OF the years production of wheat in the
United States was made at 7S5, ,000, eco
bushels. The immediate effect of this
unWarranted statement was a decline
in European markets in sympathy with
which we yielded on this side of the
water. The result has 4 zen a decline of
is to Is cents in the price of wheat The
maker of the estimate of 7S5, ,O0O,0 eco pro-
dGction revised his figures down to $780,
OO1,GOO within two weeks difference Of
5000 coo would not save the market from
decline, but the fact that revision is
made within so short a time suggests
in ltSc II the guesS-woTk process by which
the figures We're computed at the outset.
Without discussing the final crop out
come il is practically certain that the
country VIII not raise 750, 100000. The
writer does not expect to see the total
reach I00 COO 000 Certain it is that Texas,
Oklahoma and Kansas have produced no
more wheat than last year, and allow
ing the same amount Kansas can raise
this year 90OG0,OGO and probably not
above 75,0C0,0GO to S0,0OO,000 mas been
raised. Kansas was favored by rains
just at wheat-heading time or the re-
suit would have been very different.
The country's production was estimat-
ed also about June l at CO., 100000, which
was intended more as a conservative
prospect than a set figure of production.
That total calls for an increase of 10O,
100000 bushels in production over last
year and 1SS 000,00O over the government
figures Of final yield, which We're too low
because Of the under estimate on spring
production.
The estimate Of 7S5COO,O0O calls for
225OoO,000 more than was raised in 1900.
Where IS tcat increase to be found? On
the basis of 75O,O 100000 we must raise $780,
0000 0o0 more than in 1900 and where is
that increase to be found? Not in the
Northwest. surely, because there was at
least l40,0G0 coo raised last year, probably
1z5,OaO,G00 so that the increase this year
will not be startling. The southwest
will not furnish amy gain, so that we
must start with Missouri and Nebraska
to look for an increase of yield over the
previous crop.
The reports from Tennessee are that
fields that We're estimated to yield 80
bushels are yielding on threshings 20
bushels. New York, Pennsylvania and
Maryland have no increases to boast Of.
We are narrowed down to the Ohio val
ley, the Northwest and the Pacific coast
for the gains and when we add ll5, co.,
900 for these we are not far under what
crease of 115,O00,OC0 the production would
be only 675, GO0,O0O, and we can increase
100000 and keep inside 70O,000,0 900 as
total of yield. Where can we hope to
gain more than 100000 000 above the yield
of 1900?
These figures seem to suggest with
much plausibility that the estimated pro-
duction OF the United States was set al
together too high on June l. The fact
that it was is not an argument that at
62 cents wheat IS surely beginning to be
worth the money Tne producers Of
wheat should not be called upon to bear
the burden of excessive estimates in
May Of country's production in Sep
tember. If early estimates are made
they should at least be on a conservative
basis.
Foreigners will buy more wheat and
flour of us the coming year than for sew
eral seasons. We VIII use our full al
lowance at home This viii probably use
up 650G000 coo bushels. Such a result
WoTfd seem to suggest that somewhere
on the crop distribution wheat will as
sert itself and rise above the present
price leVel
Tae following figures have been COM
piled by the Chicago Trade Bulletin
and represent their annual summary of
the prospective wheat yield:
Winter wheat yield ........... 425, ,050. .50o
Spring wheat yield ................ .31O, 900 (0O
Total .... 25o0o ooo
Stocks wheat in farmers hands. 81 COO 006
Flour and wheat, second hands. S0,O00O09
Total supply available :S26, ,OOo, 900
consumption Y months 1888, 100000
s2teu -.......-.............- Is, ,OOO,O0O
Export delivery ......... 80, 100000
-651, ,00O 9O0
Surplus, July /. 1902. ia. .OOo 600
The Trade Bulletin regards the govern
ment estimate of wheat acreage as 5000,
Coz too low, of which about 100000 is
spring wheat.
The worlds crop is estimated at 150.-
OOO,oOO more than last year, which is
equivalent to showing a deficiency of pro
duction in Europe.