The watchman and southron. [volume] (Sumter, S.C.) 1881-1930, 1901-01-16
SMALL CROP
AND HIGH PRICES.
An Estimate That Appears to
Be Warranted BY Availa.
bic Facts.

New York, Jan 4-We desire
again TO call your attention to the
size Of the crop indicated BY the
movement 90 fer this season For
the past II years the average move.
ment into eight to January lst has
been 70 4 per cent Of the total out
put.
The amount in sight to January !.
this season according to Mr Hester's
figures is 6.601,000 bales;
Assuming 20 6 per cent to come
into eight for the balance of the sea
con, equals 2,777,943 bales
Total crop. assuming the move
ment to date to have equalled the
average of the past twelve years.
1884 .943 bales.
Our information gathered by spe
cial agents, and by extensive CORES
pondeuce confirms the opinion we
have heretofore expressed, that this
crop has moved faster than the aver.
ego.
In our opinion, therefore, the max.
imum of this seasons output may not
exceed $4,000 bales and may fall
materially below it. In this conuec.
tion, it is . noteworthy fact that to
the let Of January in 1897, when the
total crop was only S.757, 900 bales,
the amount in sight was 6,3s8, 1872
bales, or only l34.l77 bales less than
the amount in sight to the came date
this season. In l891.1S92, whom the
crop was only 9.035.370 bales, the
amount in sight to January l, 1892,
was 9, 446 .O86 bales, or only 86,2S3
bales less than the amount in sight to
the same date this season.
II 10 also interesting to note that
10 the crop of 1891 1892. the amount
in sight to December l, 1891, was
4.782,232 bales. while the amount in
eight TO December let. this season,
according to the Chronicle. was
4.795.7 .708 bales The movement this
year would seem to run more nearly
on . parity with the movement iD
l89l.lS92 than any other season !.
While we believe it has moved faster
than the average, We do not now
believe it has moved % fast az the
fastest. III the early part of the
season during the cotton famine
months. the movement was az rapid,
In our opinion, as il could possibly
be. We are informed that the
fsfmers camped around the gin
houses and rushed their cotton to
market with the utmost rspidity
During the three weeks following the
break OF October 10Th, We believe
cotton was marketed more slowly
than ususl. and that rapid marketing
did not again set iusbntil the Novem
Der advance, sinoe which date move
meut hss been more than normal. 1t
10 safe to conclude. therefore, that
the movement 10 sig&t to date 10
somewhere between the average and
the fastest OF the past twelve years
ln our opinion, 90 advance in
prices will bring on . large Janusry
movement There 10 . balspoe left
OF this crop uumsrketed, varying 10
amount anywhere from $500, 900 to
100000 bales Picking aud gin
ming 10 practically concluded: and
this remaining portion of the crop is
ready to be sold 40 soon 90 Q ss.isfac.
tory price can be obtained. A large
January movement, however, would
not indicate . maximum crop OF more
than 8 500. 900 bales
One million bales for January
would only bring the smount into
eight to the let of February, 1907.
600 bales For the past twelve
years. the average 10 sight to Febru
ary let hss been 80 10 per cent 90
that even assuming 100000 bales
for January. We would have 90 10.
dicated crop on the Let Of February
OF not over 9.500. 1000 bales
A word now 90 to consumption
10 our opinion, Mr. Ellison has un.
derestimated the consumption for
this season We are informed from
the most reliable sources that unless
there is prohibitive advance in the
price of cotton. that Southern con
sumption this season will equal, if
not exceed. last years While some
mills may consume less, the consump
tion Of the new mills will more than
make good this deficiency There
may he some decline in the consump
tioD Of the Northern mills. but with
the enormous prosperity Of the whole
country aud with the large individual
purchasing power this prosperity
gives we cannot but believe that we
ahAll Nee durinu the reat Of th;o ooo