Evening star., 1901-04-30
THE PENSION ROLL
Interesting Computation of Its Prob
able Life.
SHOWING HALF CENTURY HENCE
The Fluctuations of the Tide of
Increase and Decrease.
CONG GRESSIONAL TION
CONGRESSIONAL ACTIO

date when the pension roll will be extinct,
by reason of the death of all of its bene-
fo iaries, said pension official to Star
reporter this morning.
The question of even the probable date
when the roll will expire by virtue of the
erasure of the last name thereon cannot
be stated. Even as to old soldiers this is
true. though their number is steadily les
scning by reason of the deaths of the
veterans. AS to the beneficiaries. which
include widows, minor children and depen-
dent parents, an increase is shown
AN interesting probable result concern
ing this question may, however, be deter
mined with a little care and few figures.
What the actual result may be twenty-five
years hence remains to be seen, possible
wars and new legislation will change pres
ent calculations and conclusions.
Let us put it in comprehensive form.
The Tide Ebbs and Flows.
During the past year there We're 4J,@4i
pensioners added to the roll. OF these
4.699 We're the restored names of those who
for various reasons had been dropped.
by reason of the death. remarriage or
other causes there were dropped from tho
roll IS ,:3'34 pensioners. or difference of
2O1O on the side of the increase, the roll
having grown that amount over all sources
OF decrease in year.
The total number on the roll at the close
of the year 993, 52a. With the roll ir-
creasng at the average rate of 1000 a year,a
date when corresponding decrease would
ersue cannot be fixed, but it is possible
to show when it would be closed out en-
tirely. assuming that the increase ceased.
If the increase and decrease are equal,
comparatively SO, the roll will remain sta
tionary like flood tide, with slight tiuc-
tuations in various years the old SOL
fiEr lie off md of hnl
beneficiaries and of Spanish war veterans
and their beneticiaries, are added.
But If there to be no increase at
ALL and an annual average decrease of
$4,000 names which has been about the
average decrease during the past five years.
the roll would be exhausted in twenty-three
years, or in 1924.
Still Further Possibilities.
IF. therefore, it would take twenty-three
years to exhaust the roll at this ratio of
decrease in the assumed absence of any
increase. the passing of the middle of the
present century may show comparatively
slight change. because. while the old SOL
diers will all be dead by 1850. unless they
are alive centenarians. their beneficial
ries will have taken their places, together
with the veterans of the Spanish war, il
not those of possible other wars.
1t will be seen consequently, that the
matter is largely conjectural and must
can war veterans as a further Illustration.
Though this war ended hfty-flVe years ago,
there are still S.352 survivors of that war
on the roll. and S,13l widows. or a total Of
16. 464 beneficiaries In the past four years
the survivors of this war have decreased
.,342. but the number of widows of these
veterans has increased on the :oll 70
in the total number as compared to four
years ago.
THE survivors of the Indian wars on
the roll have decreased 1000 in four years,
and there are but 1870 of these veterans
left on the rolls The widows of the sol
diers of these wars have decreased from
4 2SS to j, 739, and the widows Of the Veter-
of the of 1872 have decreased from
2S10 to l 142 during the same period, there
being but one veteran pensioner of this war
alive.
These figures last given are useful on
the question of decrease. as the wars in
which the veterans fought are passed half
q century and while they cannot be taken
veterans of the civil war. they are instruc
tive on the question of the existence of :he
roll itself.
Decrease In Amount.
con the assumption that the roll would
show no material decrease in number in
twenty-three years for the reasons 1 have
heretofore stated, there would at that date
be large decrease in the total amount
thereof for the reason that the pensions
paid benefciares are much smaller inui
vidually and in the gross aggregate than
those paid to the old soldiers. The civil
war ended thirty-siX years ago. If we as
sumo that every pensioner came out of the
war at the age of twenty-five. twentythree
years hence, II alive, all would be eighty
four years of age. This is an improbable
assumption, and is made for the purpose
of illustration only, as many thousands of
veterans were over forty at the close of
the war. These latter men must be sew
entysiX years of age now, and would be
ninety nine twenty-three years hence. By
the middle of the present century, there
fore, If any of the Survivors of the civil
are alive, all must be at that date
over one hundred years Of age, unless
they came out of the war veterans at
the age of fourteen.
'On the question of the decrease in
amount, If the roll lost about $4,000 last
year, though it increased in number 2010,
the more disabled pensioner is the great
er the amount of his pension and also the
greater his chances of dying over the more
ablebodied. 1t Is probable that the re-
duction on the score of high pensions will
run up into the hundreds of thousands. II
not millions, within the next five to ten
years. But where one of these pensioners
dies beneficiary or pensioner of another
war takes his place at greatly reduced
yearly pension, however, in the former in
stance.
Congress Controls the Roll.
1.-THE increase and decrease in size and
amount of the pension roll is matter of
congressional action. AS Interesting as
may be speculative figuring on known pres
ent and past facts. 1t is impossible to fore
see the action of Congress to the future.
Whatever action Congress may take will
be obeyed until repeal ed ioy the same legis-
lative body, and present calculations would
be necessarily upset by subsequent acts re-
lating to pensions.
while L have confined myself to the
one point under discussion, it seems to me
that there is one other point which is ger
name to the subject and ought to be con-
sidered in connection Herewith, and that
is that the benefcaries of all classes on |
the roll are own citizens and the
money the government disburses is dstrb-
uted among our own countrymen and in
our own country. except the comparatively
small amount which goes abroad to pen
s1oners living in other lands OF the sum
paid our for pensions most if not all en-
ters almost Immediately into the active cir
culatlon of the country. The 500 900 900 or
thereabouts which it is estimated Auieri-
cans spend abroad every year enters into
a foreign circulation of money and stays
there.