The sun., 1901-04-09
No War Between Japan and Russia.

Notwithstanding the alarmist assertions
made by certain sensational newspapers
which, apparently are enlisted on the
bear side of the stock market, there IL no
ground for believing that collision be-
tween japan and Russia Is imminent.
The explanation Of the proposed Man
churian agreement. which has been gwen
by representatives OF the Russian Foreign
Office. has been accepted by the United
States and Germany as satisfactory, That
il will commend itself 10 France on the
one hand, and TO Germany partners In
the Triple Alliance on the other, may be
taken for granted Whether IL be or DO
not acceptable to Great Britain Is matter
Of no consequence. inasmuch a. mat power
ia in no position to make other than merely
,errunctorv protest against any step on
hussia's part however distast"ful. She
will have to remain mpassiNe whether
the proposed convention is signed by the
Chinese plenipOtentiarleS. or whether, In
the absence Of any written agreement
the Russian troops now stationed in Man
churia continue to protect the lives and
property OF Russian subjects in thar prov
ince, and to assure the construction of
the railway connecting Port Arthur with
the trans-Siberian line.
That the presence Of large body OF
Russian soldiers in Manchura should be
viewed with disapproyal 10y the Japanese
is not surprising but. under the clrcum-
stances they would be rash 10 attempt
to translate their feelings into acts. Even
~, cd
that the japanese navy is superior to tho
Russian fleet in Asiatic waters. IL does not
follow that the Mkado's subjects would
find it easy to cope with the Russians in
Manchuria We are told on good authority
that there are now no fewer than three
hundred thousand Russian soldiers south
Of the Amur River. In the event of a war,
reenforCempnts would arrive continually
by way Of the Trans-Siberian Railway
These figures mean that now and here
after Russia would possess n numerical
prepOndcrance on land and that. even II
the japanese should gain some sporadic
advantages, they would bee confronted
by an intorminabc war which their slender
financial resources would be unable 10
sustain.
1t is true that, If Japan could rely upon
the naval and pecuniary assistance of
Great Britain, she could prolong the CON
test for an indefinite period. and could en-
lisr and train an unlimited number of Chi
nese But England is tied hand and foot
by the necessity of retaining the bulk Of
her military force in South Africa She
is thus prevented from increasing her
army in India, which would forthwith
become the object Of Russian attack should
she come forward as Japan's ally.
There will he no trial of strength, there
fore. at present between Russia and Japan,
because the latter Power cannot afford IL
That. however, Ia not the only reason.
The st. Petersburg Government has the
power 20 conciliate the Mikado and silence
his objections to It's absorption of Man
churta by Offering TO give him free hand
In Corea No doubt IL Manchuria were
once organized "a a Russian province,
II would be somewhat easier for the Cara
Government TO attack Corea than it Ia
now. Corea. however, II must be reInem-
bered. Is a peninsula, assailable by land
only on its northern border. which Is Eus-
cepuble of being strongly. il not impreg-
naby. fortified. Let the japanese have
undisputed possession OF the Hermit King
dom for a quarter OF a century or even
for ten years and. in all likelihood they
would not shrink from the task OF holding
II against all comers. At all events. they
would consider themselves in far better
position than that which they now occupy,
for they would be undsputed masters Of
the strait which Is the channel OF COM
munication between vladivostock and
Port Arthur.
We repeat that there will be no war in
the Far East, because Japan, II isolated
and isolated she must be-could cot drive
Russia from ManchurIa. and because she
would rather have a piece Of the loaf in
the shape OF Corea than no bread at all,