The Montgomery advertiser., 1901-11-27

as expressing the opinion and observa- ton of the persons making them TOT maximum radius of. say, tnirty miles in a district which they are permanent Iy resident and with the conditions or which 1t may safely be assumed they should be thoroughly familiar.
 Wherever possible, l addressed my in ouiries to banks and bankers. believing that from them l would secure proba- blv the most conservative information as to the production of cotton in their immediate locality. Where 1t was not practicable to obtain the information from bankers. I have addressed the most prominent merchants or cotton manufact- urers, and 1t is my belief that nave secured the most conservative expres- sion of opinion possible. The various persons who have answered my inquiry may be classified as follows: Banks and Bankers. S76: merchants and others, 437.
 The result Is, of course. surprise to me, as it probably will be to all of those interested in the subject. It seems hard to believe. in fact 1t is almost i'm possible to believe, that the crop will be as small as the reports indicate
 Those experienced in the compilation of such statistics, make an allowance for the pessimsm naturally prevailing in agricultural sections as to the crop out
  that an allowance of about per cent. is the equivalent of this factor. On this basis, the indicated crop. figured from the above returns, would be 9.229,l bales. In any case, it would seem absolutely safe to me to assume that 1t is hardly within the range of proba- bility that the crop can exceed 9,5OOOOO bales. It Is not possible that SIS re- ports fgrom $40 counties, each covering only the production for maximum radius of thirty miles. and made with out reference to any other portion of the State or cotton belt. could uniformly indicate such reduction in the yield as compared with last year unless that reduction were very substantial.
 The above conclusion is still further confirmed by an analysis of the com paritive crop movement to date. Foi the past ten years the proportion of the crop In sight on November 30th has averaged 50.11 per cent The most rapidly moving crop was that of lS9e-9l which turned out S,T4.000 bales and of which 4.74s,0O0 or .5f.49 per cent. had come in sight by November S0th. and the slowest moving crop was that of last year, of which 4S1S,00o. or 40 per cent. was in sight November 30th. Up to the evening of Friday, November 22nd, there had come into sight, of the present crop, 4294, $50 bales. A liberal estimate Of the amount to come into sight for the balance of the month is 45O000 bales. The amount in sight to November 30th this year, theerfore. will be about 4744.s50 bales.
 If the movement of this crop has been as rapid as the average, the yield is g, ,46O, 900. It it has been as fast as the fastest, the yield is S.700.000. and if it has been as slow as the slowest. the yield Is 10, 20, 000 believe the movement has been an average. In Texas early because a drought forced an early ma turity of the crop west of the Missis- sippi: in the Atlakic States late. be- cause of excessive r8ins.
 The extremely slow movement last year, which was the slowest on record was due to two causes 1. e., the storn in Galveston early in September. whicf completely tied up the railroad system of Southern Texas for nearly the entir, month, and so cut off the section which contributes by far the largest portion O the early movement, and second. thu enormous speculation in cotton in pro gress a year ago. which caused yer! general holding back. Neither of thes, influences has been operating this year On an average movement the crop vii be 9460.0 900, and I believe this will b, | found to be about the outturn.
 Theodore H. Price.