The San Francisco call., 1901-12-27
The COlHitJy'S S Trade.

The New York circular Of Henry Clews says:
the course of our foreign trade deserves
attention Apparently we have reached the
ze0ith oc abncI maIly favorable trade balances
Six timez during the current year our exports
Rave fallen below the same month last year.
l)-rt7g September, October and November cur
czg5rts declined continuously over SIG, ,OOO. 900.
Ca the ether hand our imports have been rising
since april. the increase since then amounting
10 about sec. COG. 600. This change in the cur
renr is highly significant. and is likely to con-
1l,Ue with more or less irregularity in spite
ol The confidence with which we expect a good
loregl demand for our breadstuffs. In No
v.mbeT last our excess OF exports was only
ss-oe 5 o19 80 % % epos s3-3 = lS 1.a 56o
same time last year. So far this year the gold
movement shows an excess Of exports amount
ing TO S2.790, 900, compared with $3.50, 600 ex-
cess Of imports a year ago. The present ten
cency Of the merchandise movement, therefore.
is rather toward encouraging gold shipments;
inouGA OF course the latter depend soTnew hat
upon the elements I'm the exchange market not
expressed in trade statistics.
The home situation In many respects con-
tlnUes highly satisfactory. From all parts %
the interior come reports Of great business ac-
liNity and rapid development. How long this
condition viii continue no one dares predict; {;
au6, while the end is not yet in sight, still in
the nature Of Things il cannot continue indefn-
ltely. The iron trade is still highly PROSPEROUS
in some Of its branches. and mills have orders
fnaL Wlll keep them busy for months Pigiron
PRODUCTION continues to exceed ali records and
Allele IS more DANGER OF famine than OVerSup-
lly. New productive capacity in the manu-
featuring branches is steadily growing, and
the next twelve or even six months may wit
ness cutting Of prices as the new concerns
begin their efforts 10 share the business. Some
iron products are already weakening under
new cOmDetitiOn.
Railroad earnings are remarkably good and
are eQuallng the most optimistic expectations.
: nus Tar The effects Of short corn and cotton
crops have been slight: the next three months.
however viii reflect these losses more than the
last llree. Were il not that prices are so
nigh the railroad situation might warrant a
fresh bull campaign; but present conditions
were discounted 50 far in advance that the in
lCcemcrts Tor outside support are exceedingly
UNITED January disbursements will be unusl-
ally heavy, and II VIII be interesting 10 OBJ
serve whether or not the usual proportion will
come back into Wall street for Investment
Good securities are now so beyond reach that
capital IS likely TO seek new and more proft-
nDle fields. Real estate is already feeling the
effect or the scarcity OF safe and paying in
Nestments- Meanwhile stocks are highly con-
centi-ate0, and it is within the power of the
market leaders 10 lift values 10 a higher level
when favorable conditions and their own incli-
nations coincide Until the copper and mon
eiary uncertainties are cleared away we would
advise selling stocks the sharp rallies 10
secure profits and buying only on the breaks
iOr quick turns. There is little chance of the
l-Hanciai skies clearing before New Years.