The Savannah morning news. (Savannah, Ga.) 1900-current, 1901-01-07
POPULATION IN A. ID. 2001.
May he 3O0,OO0 900, II. II. Porter Says
hut no Estimate Can BE Accurate,
He Adds.
From the New York Times

lie AuGS.
From the New York Times.
Washington, Jan. 3.--Robert p. Porter,
who was census commissioner when the
eleventh census was taken, and who has
just visited Washington after an absence
of several months, manfests a natural
interest in the work of his successor In
the census office. lie has been looking
over the returns and makes some deduc-
lions therefrom. Taking all past re-
cords as a basis" said Mr.. Porter. the
population of the United States at the
close of this century ought to be at least
SEQ 100000, but no one can prophesy this
with any PARTICLE of hope that II will be
approximately correct AT the beginnins
of the nineteenth century-l00 years aga
all the statisticans of prominence esti-
mated that the population of the United
States at this time would be l0O,OOO,0OO
These predictions were based on the In
crease prior to that time.
The natural increment of healthy
country like England is ~ per cent a
year. or about Is per cent. dacade. BY
that is meant the augmentation by birth,
giving no consideration TO the growth by
immigration. If we should increase at
the rate of w per cent. a year by natur-
al means and continue along these lines
for the next 100 years, the population
would be 800 100000, not counting the in
crease by immigration, but there is much
in the census statistics of ten years ago
and now to cast doubt upon the antict-
pated heavy increase.
In the larger cities of the country, Tor
instance the tendency is apparently TO
smaller families. In some of the large
cities the size of the families has de-
creased from five to four children. sup
pose that in the next thirty, forty, or hity
years the decrease in the number or emf
dren to the family is from four to three,
the effect will be great, Later II the de-
crease should be to two children, as is
| the tendency in France the increase IN
population would almost stop.
There lis no doubt that as the popula-
ton of a country increases the fight for
lfe becomes more bitter and more serious.
In France, as is well known, the popua-
| ton practically stands still. Each family
| is satisfied with two chiidren-a boy and a
girl. The French people so on the theory
| that the battle for existence is too terri
BILE an affair now without adding to It's
| terrors by more people to share what
there is to be divided. Nobody can tell
now whether such an idea will attain
growth in this country In the future.
THE truth is that the best actuary can
not predict with any accuracy for a period
OF more than ten or twenty years. In the
| course of q few more years the young
people of this country may conclude by
| reason OF a desire to evade responsibility
in family affairs, that they win not marry
| until they are several years older thar
tie average period for marriage now. The
effect of this on the population would be
great. Let us suppose that the marriage
able age for young men is now twenty
| five. do not remember the exact figure
| They decide not to marry until they arr
Older, say twenty-six. The decrease her,
alone would be an enormous number"
--S-N