The Washington times., 1901-08-21

The Momentum of Prosperity.


The Momentum of Prosperity.
Speaking of conditions in the West as
affected by the recent drought, Mint
Director Roberts is quoted as saying
that the country is under such a ire
mendous momentum of prosperity that
neither the injury to corn nor the
strikes seem to make any impression
on it." There is much force in this sug-
gestion. Mr.. Roberts clearly recognizes
that the loss on the corn crop. separate
ly considered, is very serious matter.
The individual losers feel it badly, and
many localities win receive a hard
back-set as a result. But in a broad
national sense there are so many other
elements which contribute TO the sum
total of the prosperity existing that the
effect of the crop loss is greatly mini
mixed, and Is almost imperceptible up
to the present time. So of the strikes.
Those engaged in them constitute but
a small fraction of the nations work.
ing force. and as yet they have not SEN
sibly affected the general situation.
crop injury and the strikes are regarded
as merely sporadic and temporary in
their nature: ii is considered that a
short crop of corn is very likely to be
followed by a full or bumper crop, and
that the strikes will probably soon be
settled. Under some circumstances
either the drought or the strikes would
he a sfaOuaripp hlnu ot ory- afiopoI
prosperity, but just now there are many
counteracting influences at work, and
of these there is none that operates
with greater force than the ''momen-
tum'' of which Mr.. Roberts speaks. This
momentum, or onward swing of bust
ness, is very largely a matter of conf
dence, and up to certain point conf
dence is a most valuable adjunct to
business. There can be no general and
widespread prosperity without general
and widespread confidence, for OBJ
viously no man is going to put money
into a business venture unless he has
confidence that 1t will turn out all right
And this general confidence creates the
momentum. 1t sets business in motion,
ami like body projected into space, il
will continue to move until something
happens to stop it. In business the
something" may consist of multitude
Of elements, all working to some extent
Independently but at the same time
with distinct bearing upon each other
When the revival came in 1897, there
was good and substantial basis for il,
and ii really ought to have come sooner.
But the American business world was
literally frightened out of its seven
senses by the boyle man raised by the
moneyed interests. and the prosperity
wave only rolled into this country
year or more after IL had risen In Eu-
rope 1t was retarded by an utterly
senseless fright deliberately planned,
created and prolonged.
The basis being substantial, the pros
perity has continued and vast amount
of momentum has been impaired. Bust
ness men have been making money, and
they are prone 10 believe that they will
continue to do so. They argue. as Mr..
Roberts does, that the business is solid
and healthy Therefore, they go on en-
vesting, producing, consuming, and
buying. Even when the market be-
comes surcharged on certain lines, they
reason that it is a mere case of over
production on those lines. which will
soon regulate itself, and this disposition
to explain away and minimize every
unfavorable symptom gives a certain
momentum to business which generally
keeps it going with some vigor for a
time in the face of conditions which
naturally make for reaction.
The overweening confidence now
prevailing is, in part at least, of a po-
htical character. That is to say, 1t has
been manufactured by partisan leaders,
conspicuous among whom may be men,
TONED the probable Republican candi-
date for the Presidency in 1904. the
Hon. M A Hanna. These people have
industriously disseminated the idea
that as long as the Republican party
remains in power times are bound to
oe coed. Business may remain good
for some time. All well wishers of the
country should hope SO; but if it should
be so. it will not be owing exclusively
to the Republican party or it's policy
No party can guarantee prosperity in
defiance of general economic conditions.
1t is not necessary to be pessimistic
but il is good business sense to consider
things as they are. Momentum cannot
be relied upon permanently to sustain
the business of the country. The crop
loss is an undeniable check on one line;
the strikes are a loss on another, and
they may easily involve many lines.
The clouds are gathering upon the in
dustrial horizon of Europe. and COM
bined with the depression which has
appeared are threats of commercial
policies which bode us no good. 1t will
be wise for the business community to
study industrial conditions, and re-
member that there are economic laws
as memorable as are those which create
and control the tides of the sea-laws
as independent of Marcus A. Hanna as
the tides were of King Canute.
The Bureaus Cloud of Witnesses.
AS was to be expected, the request OF
Admiral Schley for the list of witnesses
by the mouths of whom the Navigation
Bureau hopes to support the charges of
Sampson. Maclay. and others, has been