The Montgomery advertiser., 1901-10-04
COTTON SITUATION REVIEWED.
Believed That Producers Can Demand
 Nine Cents.

NEW YORK, Oct. 3.-(Special.)-were is not that a comparative crop disaster fin any great staple is unquestionably a source of far-reach- ing disaster to many. the showing made by the Horticultural Department at Washington in it's report the condition of the cotton crop.
 published today, would be amusing in some of
 its aspects.
 For several months past a group of specula- tors in the great cotton markets of the world have deluded themselves and a very large DOT
 ton of the spinning trade into a belief that | the Southern cotton crop this year would be a comparatively large one. They overlooked | the facts of the situation and proceeded upon the assumption that the financial resources and | mercantile intelligence of the South had failed | to progress during the past ten years. and | that whatever the size of the crop. 1t practicable through offering to contract for the | delivery of cotton they did not possess. to force Southern producers and merchants into a relinquishment of their most valuable pro-
 duct under intimidating predictions of a ple- thoric supply and an impecunous ownership The report of the Agricultural Department.
 which of late years has attained an accuracy that justifies the utmost confidence in it's pre- dictions makes the condition of the crop on the lst of October the lowest with one ex- ception of the past nineteen years. The con- dition reported is 6I.4 per cent. In only
 one year. namely 1896. was 1t lower than this and then only by 7-lo of l per cent. the diff | ference being unappreciable.
 The most sensational feature of today's re- | port. however. is that the conditions in the great producing States. Texas. Arkansas, h. dian Territory and Oklahoma Territory. are | practically the lowest record, while the | States east of the Mississippi and especially | the State of Mississippi itself. shows aston ishing declines. This report is practical con- nrmaton in the most unmistaken terms of the predictions of many close observers and it's announcement threw. the New York market
 into complete bear panic. an advance of 30 | points or Sl.5o bale being established with | in three hours after its publication. This ad- vance was established on comparatively small | trading, and it is generally believed that an | enormous short interest in contracts is tonight unprotected and that the bears who have sold cotton are measurably at the mercy of the other parties to the contracts
 The local situation is, in my opinion. how ever, the least important aspect of the case.
 The varying fortunes of those who bull or bear
 the market for purely speculative purposes do
 not have a very profound effect upon the trade except as to emphasize the real underlying facts.
 These are as follows:
 First-Practically the lowest condition of the
 cotton crop on record when the comparative
 production of the States whose condition is poorest is taken into consideration.
 Second-A crop disaster which will be still further intensified should an early frost occur to more seriously curtail the producing ca pacity of a plant extremely late in its devel- opment and unfruitful in it's yield.
 On the basis of the condition of the cotton crop published today it seems to me improb- able that the crop can exceed nine and one half million bales. am confident that 1t will not do so unless we have exceptionally late autumn. On the other hand. the worlds
 consumption of American cotton as recently
 estimated by MT. Ellison, the well known Eng
 fish statistician, will be eleven millions unless
 prices advance to a point to check it.
 Stocks of cotton at the centers of the world
 are the samllest on record since the American
 war, with the exception of last year. The last
 weekly figures made up show that the stocks of American cotton in Liverpool and on the continent and ahoat for Europe were only 454.- 900 bales as against 3s5. 900 last year. which was the smallest on record. The stock of cot | ton in New York available for delivery on con- | tract tonight is only 46, APO bales. The amount | of cotton sold for future delivery in New York ! prior to the 3 3Ist of January, 1t is impossible | to estimate An extremely conservative guess | would be that 1t is ten twenty times the
 New York stock.
 The price of print cloths in Fall River is 3
 cents yard and operatives wages are being
 advanced The stocks of cotton manufactured | goods throughout America are light, It is uni
 Nersally conceded that the hand -to-mouth policy of European spinners leaves them in a | position in which they must buy to cover | enormous contracts already made for the flu | ture delivery of goods.
 | Under conditions far less stringent last year cotton sold at I'd a pound in Liverpool and | II cents a pound in New York These prices
 resulted from the legitimate demand for the | article and were not created upon a lecerage l of any such short interest as now exist It | seems, therefore, not improbable that the cot | ton trade of the world will only adjust itself | to the alarming conditions indicated by to- l days Government report through convulsive l and sensational advance. The conditions, both | speculative and legitimate. never favored 1t
 and the short interest has rarely been in such
 an unprotected position
 | The producers of the South have 1t within
 their power to realize a price for their crop
 which the conditions justify and if their ad-
 vantage is not pushed too far. 1t seems not improbable that for that poCtian of the crop