The Washington times., 1901-11-11
STOCK MARKET COMMENT.
Factors That Have Operated to
Cause the Upward Movement.
Fcnrs Of the Financial Situation Dis
missed-Corn Crop Failure and
Copper Trade weakness Discount
cd-Immense Railway Earnings.

NEW YORK. Nov l0-The upward
movement which broke off abruptly with
the disastrous Northern Pacific corner uf
six mQEths ago has set in with great en-
ergy again on the stock exchange. 1t is
scarcely possible at the present juucture
70 define the limits of the new advance,
hut IT'S causes are not hard TO understand,
ana they have been quite appauut TO i'm
partial observers for some time past In
the first place there is nothing definitely
unfavorable il the immediate market ont
look The fear Of money stringency
has long since disappeared. and the de-
velopments of the last fortnight nave car
ried further assurance that the money
market may be dismissed as deteTring
factor in the situation.
There may still lurk some misgivngs
as to the final consequences of last sum
mer great drought upon the purchasing
ability of the agricultural regions. But
the community AT large is in a very differ
ent frame of mind from what it was three
months ago, when the alarming reports
We're coming in from the corn belt The
first shock is far enough removed for the
incident of the corn crop failure to be
regarded in its proper proportions. and not
for II to assume a commanding influence
to the exclusion of all other considera-
tions
Through similar revision of the first
hasty opinions pretty much all the dis
turbing arguments of the last few months
have steadily diminished in importance
The September furry in the copper trade
and the extremely bad reports OF numer-
Gus industrial companies were at the
time thought to be marks of general com
mercial weakness. Now they are seen to
have reflected nothing but purely special
conditions. The collapse in the Copper
shares was generally important only as it
involved temporarily speculative interests
in other quarters The humiliating record
of the various trust concerns was in every
case the result either Of poor manage
ment or of overcaptalization; it indicated
no ebb in the tide of business prosperity.
a great deal has been made recently of
our obligations to foreign capital, that
they have increased very largely during
the past year. and that they are likely to
increase still further with our foreign
trade decreasing. But the truth is. of
course, that this country has simply been
changing its form of Indebtedness to the
foreign markets 1t borrowed extensively
from Europe last spring because it did not
have sufficient means to provide. in ad-
diuon to home demands, for the mass Of
which We're suddenly shifted upon It, We
were then merely converting obligations
represented by deferred sterling exchange,
Z and during the past month. therefore, we
have really been paying for securities
which We were unable to settle for in full
last April and May. If a comparison could
be made between the international credit
relations now and year ago it would
beyond question show that the total bal
fWgH NTW1f#
materially reduced. The recent decrease
in exports might be looked upon more Sc
riously if the detailed returns did not
show that most of the falling off from
last year has occurred in articles like
. corn, cotton and copper. for which spe-
cial rather than general conditions are
= responsible.
The decline in the export trade, as a
whole, has in fact scarcely become appa-
rent; far less can ii be said to exhibit any
settled retrograde tendency.
So the financial community seems to
have arrived, after a process OF analysis
and criticism. at the conclusion that the
contentious of an snfaVOrable character
are Outweighed by the positive sources
OF encouragement in the situation. To
find the real motive for this weeks rise
on the stock exchange one need 90 no
further than the amazing earnings state
ments from the railroads IN every part
of the country SO far from there being
any failing off, as was predicted some
months ago, the earnings published dur
Ing the last week or SO have shown in
ereases over previous years, fully equal
Ing any that have been reported at ear
licr periods Of 1891 The railroads, it is
true. are hauling only about half the
% amount Of corn they were a year ago,
and tr2ff1c In other grains, In live stock
and in provisions is considerably less
But the enormous and altogether unpre-
cedcnted movement Of general freight car
more than Offsets the loss in farm pro-
ducts.
The obvious danger Of the present stock
market is that speculation will exaggerate
the optimistic line OF reasoning as II in
uduiGed in undue pessimism two and three
months ago.