The Savannah morning news. (Savannah, Ga.) 1900-current, 1901-06-10


Suddenly, however, the situation has
changed. The government report, the
New York Journal of Commerce. the re-
port of the New York Commercial and
that of the Commercial and Financial
Chronicle are singularly unanimous in
stating that the condition of the crop
just planted is the worst on record. While
the authorities above referred to agree
in reporting an increa Sc of acreage, vary
ing from four to nine per cent, later
advices from the South indicate that
much of this increase in acreage was
abandoned when it became necessary
to replant the seed which had
failed to terminate on account of the
drought in Texas or had been washed
away by the excessive rains in the At
lantic states. The result is that the cot
ton trade finds itself confronted by the
probability of a very largely reduced pro
duction next year. OF course, this may
be changed by an exceptionally late au-
tumn. At present we have to face the
poorest crop condition that we have had
in twenty years, with one exception, and
crop development which, as stated by
the Commercial and Financial Chronicle.
averages the very latest in terminating
ever recorded AS to the acreage, the
Chronicle says: Our information inclines
us to the opinion that the increase is not
as large as early in the season was gener-
ally anticipated would be the case. In any
event, therefore. all idea of a mammoth
production next year must be dismissed.
The lateness of the present crop makes
an exceedingly open autumn necessary
to the realization of even a moderate
yield, and this means a very slow move
ment early in the season. A very large
movement early in the season can only
follow excessively hot and forcing wealth
er during the summer, and anything like
a drouth this year it is evident would
mean absolute ruin 10 the crop The al
tentative with which we are confronted,
therefore, would seem to be
late movement and a very large crop,
or a large early movement and "a disas-
trously short production. A recognition of
this fact has led to close analysis of the
present figures of supply, for either we
shall got into next season feigning the
smallest crop of the past five years,
the cotton We now have on hand must
be eked out so as to meet the require
ments of the worlds consumption at least
between then and the first of October. So
far as the crop of 190O-19O1, is concerned,
l do not see now how it can possibly ex-
coed 10000, 900 bales There was in sight
up TO last Friday evening, 1854 600. If we
receive during the balance of the season
as much as We got during corresponding
period in 1898, namely $4,000 the indicated
production will be TO- 134 900. do not think
il possible that more cotton is held back
than was the case two years ago, when
the movement during the last three
months of the season was the remnant of
practically the largest crop ever pro-
duced. Comparisons of the movement with
this year and last are valueles, as last
year during the corresponding period the
movement was ictitiously augmented
through the reduction of interior stocks
and large portion of the cotton Of
fictal!y coming into sight represented
what was left over from the preceding
year. Assuming a crop for this year,
therefore of TO- 10000 we find nearly the
entire excess in the American visible
supply is held in America
In Europe the situation is real
ly extraordinary. Notwithstanding
the fact that We have thus
far exported from America 10000 more
than We have during the same period last
year. the total visible of American afioat
and in Liverpool and invisible continental
stocks is only 1,226OOO as against !, POS 900
last year. In other words a European
situation last year in consequence of the
late movement of the American crop, put
cotton to cents in Lancashire; the stop
page of the mills because they could not
buy the raw material at any price is al
most exactly duplicated, except that in
the present situation we are face to face
with a crop, the movement of which, ac-
eording to all accepted authorities prom
ises to be even later than that of last
year. The European market during the
last week seem to have commenced to
recognize this fact and they have ad-
vanced far more rapidly than the Amer
loan markets. In America the situation
has been less promptly reflected In the
price, as the inverted position of the fu-
ture market in New York has made spec
ulation somewhat timid, and spinners are
always reluctant purchasers at an ad-
vance. There is no doubt. however that
both in the market for the raw material
as well as that for manufactured goods,
the corner has been turned. Reports from
the dry goods market in both Boston and
New York, as well from the more i'm
portant manufacturing sections, show
that the conditions are rapidly improv-
ing and that mills are finding a
demand in advance of their production
in both Europe and America.
1t is generally admitted that spnners
have allowed their stocks 10 run down to
an exceptionally low point, and for the
balance of the season IL would seem that
the owners Of spot cotton in the South
have the situation absolutely within their
control; the supply of cotton for the bal
ance Of the season promises to decrease
very rapidly. / doubt seriously whether
of good spinning cotton there will be as
much available on the 2lst of October as
there was last year. If there is, 1t can
only be through disaster to the growing
crop by drought, which would result in
even higher prices than would follow the
natural and normal contraction OF present
supplies. Southern holders of cotton win
therefore do wisely to insist upon full
value for the remnant of their produc-
ton"
Mr.. Price states further that he will be
very glad to receive letters from such
parties in the South IN any position 20
give information of the crops condition
from time to time. These reports he WIN
incorporate in "A monthly circular which