The Manning times. [volume] (Manning, Clarendon County, S.C.) 1884-current, 1901-01-23
TIE COTTON OUTLOOK
What Mr. shepparson Says About It
In His Cotton Facts.

The little annual publication by Mr.
Alfred Sheppersoo, Of Ns4 York. en-.
titled Cotton Facts, has come to be re-
c)gn;zed as leading authority among
cotton men. His figures are accurate
and his dedu ,tions conservative. His
review of the last season and prospects
for 1900 1901 set forth that the last
crop (l899 l9OW vas 9,422 o22 bales,
and his estimate of the current crop
(l9OO 19O1) is 9,9O0,0 900 bales. He
comments upon this as follows:
At the close Of the European cotton
season on September 80, the stocks OF
cotton of all growths in European mar
kets we're only 10000 bales, being the
smallest recorded In SO yesr,, with the
exception of 1868, when, in consequence
Of our civil war, the Europesn stocks
ware radu ,ed to 250,000 bales. Con
sumption however, Was on much
smaller scale shen aud the stocks, on
September 80, 1868, represented six
weeks consumption Of the mills;
whereas the stocks last September we're
not enough for two weeks coasurption
Of European spinuers. The consump
ton of American cotton last season By
American and fo1eigu N lis was about
ll,000,00 bales. My friend, Mr..
Thouas Ellison Of Liverpool, calls it
10 900, 600, being 100000 more than
the estimate published by him at the
beg: g:noing Of the season. In his ciTco
lar Of Oatober 20 he estimated reduc.
,ion this season in American snd jap
anese consumption Of 378, 900 bales (of
500 pounds metz and an increase in Eu-
ropsan consumption Of $4,000 bales
| OF 500 pounds nes), and, with The eZ
pectation of larger supplies than last
season from countries other thar Amerl
ca. stated that an American crop Of 10,
352, 200 bales would be ereq1ired in or
der to keep the stock at the end Of the
season from falling beloT the limited
supply at its commencement. "a De-
cenb. IS Mr.. Ellison cabled that he
thought au American crop of 10, $50,
900 bales would meet the requirements
of the spinners. This was due to the
expectation of larger receipts from la
ola than his estimate in October Of 800,
0O0 bales, or 500, 000 more than last
season. In this Connection it is, we'll to
remember that while 2l7,000 spindles
we're added to the mills Of India last
season, many Of the mills were not con.
ssansly at work. It is probable N view
Of the better crops and improved con-
di,ion Of al airs that considerably more
cotton will be spun in India than last
season. The commercial crop of India
last season was 2, $4,000 bales against
an average of 3,2Ou, 100 for the four
previous seasons, but the actual yield
WAS probably nos over 300, 600 bales,
the balance being cotton held over
from pre7ious crvps. 1t is thought
that little or no old cotton was left in
the Interior Of India last season, 50 that
the present commercial crop will not
exceed the growth of this sesson. The
quantity available for export to Europe
IS therefore not likely to exceed $780,
900 bales, aud may not be as much.
The largest shipment fr5m lud to
Europe OF recent sea.eas were 899 900
bales In 1862, but there are now $780,
600 m IRE splnlles in lrdia than then.
About t9cthlrds of the cotton grown in
lnola is now consumed ther' ;, an it is
oely the surplus which ls exp orted. The
EgJ ntisn crop is eXp.cteo to be less
tnsn last season b. ,hs equivalent Of
25O OOO bales of sou p,unds and the
quality is bslo7 the average. have
be informed that about 6O0, 900 nsw
spi aoles have been stirted IN B irish
mills since O,sober 1st. OF the addi
tional spindle, started in the United
States last season quite large numbtr
were rot in cp rauon unsil the later
part Of the season. All Of the new mills
everywhere were e.ee ed to be opersted
to .hsir full capacity and the additions
to the ni.ls Wers Tor the same purpose.
With tae settlement Of the Chinese
computations and renewal of trade
With that country, confidently look
for su,h acuVasy in cotton manufsctur-
ing tnat the consumption Of the worlds
mills viii absorb all Of this seasons
crops. Ia that event the socks will be
redu;ed to very small propoltlRs every
where, and The coming summer may
witness exceedingly actlVe and s2ecula-
tive markets at full prices. It is most
likely that there will De a considerable
increase in the cotton acreage Of this
couatry next spring. While this fact
YOU'D doubtless deprss;, 10 some
degree, the prle, Of future deliveries"
for the next crop it would Dos relieve
the Ma kse for spot eo'ton. Ifd.lS agree
with Mr.. Ellison shst there would 10:
be any plethora Of cotton even If the
crop should exceed l0,750, ,00o bales,
as the distribution would be spread
over such wide area that there would
be no g1eat accumulation OF stocks any
where.
As to the probable price that the re.
maInder of the current crop will com.
mand, Mr.. Sheppsrson makes no pre-
dioLlon and throws ous no hint unless
1t is to be 1uuad ID she following sem
teuce:
81. is perfectly evident that the pre-
sent comnsrclAl Al crop caanot we'll .x;e,d
the ylell OF this season and, uuless
Very h!gh prices pr,vsll IN the sun-
mer, may be considerably less than the
yield from the fact that some cotton
will BE- held back, in every section. for
h.gu.r prlc-s.
Thl. hint may be in either dir. e.ion,
| and We Leave the reader to MAKE his
choice Of the two possible constructions.
() A great deal of cotton is being
held bGck tor higher prices, and If they
are not real .zsd 1t Will be carried over
t. n.xt year, and there may 10 'consld-
eraoly less" cotton in the commercial
crop than this years yield. (2) This is
probable unless very high prices pre-.
l ~