The Houston daily post. [volume] (Houston, Tex.) 1886-1903, 1901-07-07
COTTON CROP ESTIMATES.
Serious Errors Made by Statistcians
How Neil Was Upset,

Serious Errors Made by StatisticIans,
How Neil Was Upset.
New York Commercial.
The cotton crop year of 190O-1001 is
drawing near to close, with prospects
of a yield much in excess of the early
estimates and very considerably so, when
there is taken into account the Increase in
the average weight of the bale. which is
in the neighborhood Of eleven rounds over
that Of last season, With this increased
weight per bale there should be added TO
this crop, on this account alone, 10000
bales to bring it into proper comparison
with the yield of last season.
We have frequently stated that at no
time has the statistical position and pros.
poets shown less yield than 1o. 800 600
bales, and with strong tendencies toward
lo,1@,O0O bales, with l0,5OJt0O bales more
than propable.
1t is somewhat interesting TO recall In
connection with the known facts Of to-
day the estimates that were made the
latter part OF last fail and durlug the WIN
Ter BY such well known authorities as the
New YORK cotton exchange, New Orleans
cotton exchange, Latham, Alexander *
20, the nlted states department OF agri-
culture the Memphis cotton exchange, ana
others, none OF which gave an estimate
exceeding ~, 10000 bales, which was tnat
culture. All these show the Vaccinations
OF making estimates, hut also the danger
OF doing SO Win so many uncertain fac
tors to deal with rs exist concerning tne
harvesting ana distribution OF the cotton
crop.
When Mr.. Nelll made his estimate Of
q, dtp. eco to q. 7JUtSO bales he did so uion
good evidence as the result of experience
and many years observation OF the relation
existing between conditions prevailing in
June and July and The final out-turn OF the
crop There was an error in this relation last
year, and a similar error may occur CON
corning the crop that is now growing, II
based upon conditions that now prov al !.
Still II must he admitted that con iiuoAs
| ia midsummer are factors that must be
considered in reckoning the cotton harye
! Notwithstanding the conditions Of Srptc1
| Der aud October, 1900, We're generally per
feet as to weather and temperature, with
| possibly too much rain in some sections.
| The excessive rain throughout the colt n
belt, except Texas. In June. followed by
only partial cessation IN July If that
year, put tho crop IN such condition
| from grass and weeds. and absence %.
! TAP Root that 4 GOOD crop seemed
| almost impossible, leaving II subject Ia
serious injury by even moderate drou,h
It was upon these facts existing during
| the summer months that Influenced Mr..
| Neil to make his estimate Of 9TJ0.0O0
bales as maximum: Mr. Neill never
| seemingly believed In q larger crop THAI
! @ JN0,OOO bales. He probably did not take
uf the bale for the crop Of 1900 over that
| Of 1897 or eleven pounds 10 the bale
! This alone should have added to his es j.
! mate at least 20j.OOO bales Even as late
as the early part Of March, Mr. Nril
| held his former estimates, and asked in a
| circular that he issued at that time, Civ
ing n warning as Ia the scarcity Of 60
| ION: rs Il because the trade believes
J In crop very much beyond a,7JO,O0t
| balesY
III 50. | ask again, where is the evidence
| OF ans such eXcessY
| Notwit hstanding the views taken hv Mr.
| Neiu Of the statistical position Of Gotten
The generally known fact that there wer,
| much holdings OF cotton in the interior
that had not been counted IN the CONNER
elal stock seemed to have Initiated his
| innate Of the future movements Of th'
| crop There has never been In our opinion
! ANYTHING indicative az crop less thai
| 10 go coo bales and certainly nothing I s
than 100000 bales.