The Montgomery advertiser., 1901-11-27
HIS METHOD OF FIGURING
Conservative Men Have Made
 Reports to Him.
Believed That Cotton Has Not Been Held Back, as Was the Case Last Year-Some Figures
 on the Crop.

New York. Nov. 26.-(SpeciaD-On 'he i2th of September last l issued a circuiar in regard to the cotton crop of lsoi-o- HI which. basing my opinion upon the CLOS .et nossihle analysis of the weather con ditions that prevailed for the SIX months ending September 1, 1901, as compareo with the weather conditions for the pre- yious nine years, I stated 1t as my oe- lief that the cotton crop for the year u.02 would not much exceed 9.5OO,OOo bales. unless, as a result of an excep- iionally favorable autumn, the yield should be greatly augmented. Within the past three weeks. killing frosts and freez- ing weather have been generally report ed throughout the entire cotton belt. and it may be accepted that the growth or the plant is finally at an end.
 Recently several persons having the repuation of crop experts have promul- gated estimates ranging from iV,'oo'VV to H. 25O, GOO bales for the crop. The result ing divergence of opinion with regard 10 the size of the crop is therefore greater than almost ev,r previously, and with view of ascertaining the truth as accu- rately as possible, have been at great pains to make a further investigation on the subject. The very exhaustive re- port of the United States census, issued on September 2S, has afforded bass In this investigation that has never pre- viously existed. In this report, the cen gus bureau has been able accurately 10 determine through advices received rom some 2s,0O0 gnners almost exactly the number of bales produced last year Tn each county in the cotton belt.
 tn crop for the season ending September l, 1901 (omitting Virginia). was produced in 561 counties, and the total Of the crop as given was l04I4,0Sl bales. Taking this report therefore. as basis of calcula- tion. | have caused to be addressed to three persons in each of these counties a return postal card, asking the estimated production for the county in which the person addressed resides.
 In each of the postal cards so address cd. I caused to be filled in the production of the county, according to the census last year thus making clear the exact scope of my question. To this Inquiry have S31 replies, covering 54O counties From 221 counties 1 have received no r-t plies, but of the counties not heard from 10l produced less than 5000 bales las year. so that it may be safely assumed l have replies from a very large propor tion of the entire belt.
 As matter of fact, the replies received include counties which last year pro- duced 80 per cent. of the entire crop, and fin my opinion the investigation may therefore be regarded as decidedly com prehensivc
 The estimated yield of $40 counties which last year produced S,312 ,0A bales. is this year stated to be 6.727.262 bales, and applying the average percentage of in crease or decrease in the counties re- porting by States, to those counties which I have not heard from. I have arrived at the indicated yield in the cours ties from which no reports have beer received.
 On the basis of these reports. the indi cated crop is S,545. i7S bales. By States th' comparison is as follows:
 Total production 1900-01 according to U