The times., 1901-04-26
dine AS PORTER'S GUESTS
The Result of a Wager Over the
Country's Population.

The Census Experts Entertained ID!
the Ex-Director - The Best Guess
Made by Colonel Lord-Awarded
Fine silver Loving Cup as n Prize
The members Of the staff of Director
Merriam, of the Census Bureau. and {
number of statisticians. in Government
employ were the guests of Robert p
Porter at a dinner given in the banquet
hall of the Hotel Gordon last night
The dinner was the sequel to one giver
but two years ago, to the same people The
occasion then was the retirement of Mr.
/ Porter as the Director of the Eleventh
! Census, and the installation Of Governor
/ Merriam as the Director of the Twelfth.
/ a discussion arose between DR.. Herman
! Holerith, Chief of the Tabulating Divi-
! sion. and Mr.. Porter as to what would be
/ the official figures of the census just about
/ to be taken Dr. Hollerith contended that
/ the population of the United States would
/ be over 5000. 600. The contention of Mr..
/ Porter was that the people would number
! less than that many millions. The discus
/ sion resulted in the laying Of a wager
/ between the two disputants, the winner
to pay for a dinner to be given to the
same company.
GRAFTON was nearing completion. there
was a great deal of guessing among the
statisticians and some betting on the fig
ures which the official count was likely
to produce. At the suggestion of Dr.
HolleTith the guessers formed a sort of
association, wrote out their guesSes, en-
closed them in envelopes and put a con-
tribution in the box to go toward pur-
chasing prize for the winner. The prize
purchased was magnificent silver loving
cup. The unofficial announcements of the
result of the count proved DR.. Hollerith
tc be we'll on the safe side, and conse-
quently the dinner was at Mr.. Porter's
expense. it was decided to open the
guesses at MIR. POrters dinner, and last
nights festivities at the Gordon centred
around the contest.
In order to know which statistician had
guessed nearest to the correct figures, it
was necessary for the announcement of
the official numbers to be made. As read
by Director Merriam, they were 76305,292
with some allowance, probably about A.
500 reduction. TO be made because of the
recently detected frauds in Maryland
The prize went to Col. J. 5. Lord, who.
while not a statistician, proved to be
better guesser than any of them. His
guess was 76,4VO,411.
The following were participants in the
contest, and the guesses they made:
William r. Merriam, Director of the
Census. IS, 400, coo; Carroll D. Wright, Com
missioner of Labor; DR.. II. Gannett, Ge-
Osrapher, 75,0J0.000; William c. Hunt,
chief statistician in charge of popula-
ton, 80. 775, Go; w A. King. chief statisti-
clan in charge of vital statistics, 1886, ,226;
J.. G. Powers, chief statistican in charge
OF agriculture, 76,TI,777; w. F. Wilcox,
chief statistician in charge Of methods
and results. IS .525, 900; II. a Barrows, Dis
bursting officer. 77.7n,777; J. ". Langley,
Appointment Clerk, 16.645 Z35; c. S Sloane.
Geosrapher, 10, 49l $50; II. Y. Newcomb,
I5, 25S ,6l3; T. w. Parker, 15.a55, ,555; DR.. Hol-
lerith, 76.0000m; w. r. Mackrille. 1885,
$33; d. j. PETERS, 76S00 000; Edward Koch,
75,242, ,230; George Boos, 1883 256; w. M,
Stewart, rs. .S99 449.
Colonel Lord. not being present but
having a presentiment that he was to
win the cup. had sent a letter, which was
read. He condoned with the less fortu-
nate. telling them that if they guessed
too high, they could lay the failure OF
their calculation at the feet Of lazy census
and If their figures were toe 4
low they could attribute il to the active
representatives OF the department in the /
field.
Before the opening Of The envelopes con
tanning the guesses, Mr.. Porter made a I
short speech, during the course of which /
he said:
Il sincerely trust the public will not
think the statisticians of the country are /
into a trust for the purpose of /
the statistics market Not many i
years ago a prominent Massachusetts |
writer said to me he had no faith In sta
tistics because from his observation the /
existing chiefs of the various Govern
ment statistical bureaus spent most of |
their time correcting the mistakes and /
errors of their predecessors. This has
not been the case with the Census Bureau /
The enumeration which had the honor
n a tai fCh ffNs
accuracy of the Walker Census, while the
just completed goes far to-
ward establishing the general accuracy
Of the Eleventh Census. There are peopIe
around this table who have taken an ac-
tive part in all the enumerations and they
can substantiate the claim. | wish cor
daily 10 congratulate Director Merriam
and his able staff of statiSticianS on the
and rapid manner in which I
he enumeration has been completed, and /
Dr.. Hoilerith upon the despatch which he
laS shown in the mechanical tabulatiOn |
Perhaps no one in the country can better
appreciate the magnitude Of the task than /
[. for have been through il and am here 1
o tell the story.
AT the dinner you gave me before the
york was begun. / was the only man in 4
he United States who had enjoyed that !
experience. / am glad to have such a
'ObUSt colleague and friend to share the I
lonor with me. AS to the results of the
probably we shall learn
more tonight when the estimates are
IptHc1, Dul IN d general way. as ! have
ime and again cOntended, the aggregate /
depends so much more upon the activi-
les of the people that. until we have
nnual returns Of births and deaths and
marriages, we shall be always subject to
urprise. True, / had more immigrants
han General Merriam. but then he had
he children Of my immigrants. who were
gorth more numerically. The percentage
f increase. however, is decreasing and !
will continue TO do SO.
Expansion may bring us TO a hundred
lilliOn, but with the general increase of
he birth rate, it is not surprising that
,c reached 100000, which, you will re-
lemDer was my limit"
After the award Of the prize Governor |
ferriam spoke and in his address he de
Jared that it would be necessary, If the
ext Census is to be taken properly. to
ave a permanent bureau He asserted
hat almost 100000, 600 inhabitants could ;
e expected, particularly If the Philip .
ines. Porto Rico, and Cuba were in
luded. IT would be impossible TO handle
uch a multitude except from a perma-
emily organized central bureau he said 5
the time specified by Congress. ,
Short addresses were also made bv :
Commissioner Wright and several others |
REPAIRS TO WARSHIPS. a
esseis in the North Atlantic squad O