The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1901-11-27

cality. When it was not possible to OBJ
tain the information from bankers. /
have addressed the most prominent mer-
chants or cotton manufacturers, and it
is my belief that / have secured the
most conservative expression of opinion
possible.
The various parties, who have answered
my inquiry may be classified as follows
bank and bankers, 376; merchants and
others, 437
The result is of course. as surprise to
me as it probably will be to all of these
interested in the subject. 1t seems hard
to believe in fact, it is almost impossible
to believe that the crop will be as small
as the reports indicate. Those exper-
fenced in the compilation of such Stats
tics in practice make an allowance for
the pessimism naturally prevailing in
agricultural sections as to the crop, out
turn. and in experience. ! have found
that an allowance of about eight per cent
is the equivalent of this factor On this
basis the indicated crop figured from the
above returns, would be 1929, Ill bales.
In any case it would seem absolutely
safe to me to assume that it is hardly
within the range of probability that the
possible that S13 reports from $40 coun-
ties, each covering only the production
for maximum radius of thirty miles
and made without reference to any other
portion Of the State or cotton belt, could
uniformly indicate such reductions in the
yield as compared with last year unless
that reduction were very substantial. THO
above conclusion is still further confirmed
Of bo
movement to date. For the past ten
years the proportion of the crop in sight
On November 80 has averaged SOIL per
cent. The most rapidly moving crop was
that of 1867, which turned out STA 600
bales and of which Alas, 000 or "a 40 per
cent had come in sight on November.
and the slowest moving crop was that of
last year, of which 4,S1S,000 or 46.40 per
cent was in sight November 80
Up to the evening of Friday November
22nd, there had come into sight of the
present crop 1924, $50 bales. A liberal
estimate of the amount to come into
sight for the balance of the month is
100000 bales The amount in sight No
vember 30tn this year therefore, will
be about 4.I44,850 bales. If the move
ment of this crop has been as rapid as
the average, the yield is 9,460,000. If it
has been as fast as the fastest, the yield
is 100000 and if it has been as slow
as the slOwest, the yield is 10,220,00O
l believe the movement mas been an
average one, in Texas early because a
drought forced an early maturity OF the
crop west of the Mississippi in the At
lantic States, late, because of excessive
rains. The extremely slow movement
last year which was the slowest on rec
ord was due to two causes, /. e., the
storm in Galveston early in September,
which completely tied up the railroad
system of southern Texas for nearly the
entire month and SO cut off the section
which contributes by far the largest por
tion of the early movement, and second
the enormous speculation in cotton in
progress a year ago, which caused holding
back neither of these influences has been
operative this year. On an average move
ment the crop will be 9,46OO 900, and be-
lleve this will be found about the out
turn.
THEODORE H PRICE.