The Manning times. [volume] (Manning, Clarendon County, S.C.) 1884-current, 1901-11-20
Size OF the Cotton Crop.

es, most notable among which
are a slack: demand for cotton
goods and a growing belief that
the crop is going to prove one
of the largest on record. The
slack demand proposition is sc
obvious as 10 leave no ground
for question; but what basis
there is for the large crop idea,
beyond the of-hand estimates
of Neill and others, has not yet
appeared.
Messrs. Latham, Alexander &
Co., of New York, who are
among the most level headed
authorities in the cotton trade,
do not have a great deal of conf
dence in the big crop idea.
They reason from such facts as
necessary apply to the case,
and in d circular letter dated
November 9, give the following
plausible analysis OF the situa-
ton:
"The total amount of cotton
in sight from September l, to
November 1, this year, was g.
S41,613 bales, compared with the
same period of 1900, it is 191, ,93e
bales less; 2O.722 bales less than
in 1899; 4O6, 1873 bales less than
in 1898, and 120,723 bales less
than in 1897.
:sIf the movement TO Novem-
Der 1st should only be 26.44 per
cent of the total crop this year,
as it was in 1S97-9S, and which
was the smallest ever known to
November list, the crop this year
would figure out 10, ,747, 401 bales.
on the other hand, should it
prove to be 80 per cent. of the
total crop, as it was in 1696-97,
which was the most rapid move
ment. the crop would prove to
be $685. ,329. If the movement
thus far should prove to be an
average Of the past ten years,
which was 5O.l2 per cent. the
crop would figure out 9,435, 3O2
for this year.
"In 1898-99 the total crop was
1924 $40 bales, the largest ever
grown. The movement to No
vember 1st this year was 406, 1873
bales less than it was that year.
If the crop is 10 be as large this
year as in 189a-99, the enormous
receipts Of that year will not
have to be equal from now to the
end of the season, but increased
4O6,878 bales.
"1878-99 the movement of the
crop to November 1st was 31l,-
23O bales greater than this year.
Still, the crop yielded only s.
757, ,964 bales.
"The total crop of cotton this
year cannot well be approx
mated by a comparison of the
movement to November 1st with
any particular previous year;
but an average Of receipts to
November 1st for the last ten
years should represent in some
degree the PROBABLE out-turn of
the crop.
"The crop was marketed rap
idly during October, on account
of favorable conditions for pick
ing and shipping. and because
cotton was required for export
to fill contracts for October and
November deliveries and ship
ments, and to increase depleted
stocks Of spinners.
'sOn October 3rd, the govern
ment's estimation of the condl-
ton of the crop was 61.O4, next
to the lowest estimate ever re-
corded. This estimate has since
been confirmed by the subse-
quent reports of commissioners
of agriculture of the various cot
ton States-some of them Of re-
cent date.
"Our own advices to date:
through means Of circular tele'
grams reaching nearly all the
cotton growing counties, also
confirm the prospective short
yield of cotton.
''It is hardly probable that a
long and disastrous drought in
Texas and the Southwestern
States should contribute to in
crease the crop, Or that a noto-
unfavorable rainy season
in the Carolinas, Florida and
parts of Georgia has contributed
to the yield. Neither is it prob
able that the favorable weather
of the latter part of October
could to any considerable extent
overcome the injury previously
during the greater
part of the growing season, es-
pecially when in many sections
our correspondents report that
the crop had already been large
ly gathered and marketed.
''In view of the foregoing, it
does not seem possible that this
is to prove the largest cotton crop
ever grown.
I'm our opinion it would be
impossible to procure from trust
worthy sources of the cotton
growing counties of the south
information that would warrant
the belief that this years crop
would prove as large as last
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