The Savannah morning news., 1901-12-04

New York, Dec. 3.-The government
report on cotton issued to-day, estimat-
ing the crop for the season of 1901-02
at 1874, 900 bales, has created a great
sensation in the cotton market and
has resulted in an advance in the New
Orleans and New York markets during
the three hours after it's assurance of
approximately one half cent pound.
The report fully sustains the crop es-
Inmates already issued by such repre-
sentative concerns as Messrs. Latham,
Alexander q Co., Messrs. ]. H. Parker
& Co., and the very full and exhaus-
tive report recently compiled by Mr..
Theodore H. Price.
1t is derived so it is stated, from 49,
900 ginners, and 5000 bankers, and
merchants who in addition to the au-
thorities ordinarily reporting the crop
to the Agricultural Department have
furnished valuable information. 1t is
also stated that the ginners have re-
ported the amount of cotton glnned be-
tween Aug. Is and Nov. 90 this year
and last. Aside from the fact that. the
indicated crop of 1914 600 bales is much
below what many alleged crop experts
have anticipated the most important
feature of the report is its statement
that the average net weight of the
cotton bales for the entire cotton belt
10 fOOsG pOutiuby Which, 10 DGllSNGd " OC
the lowest average in at least ten
years" This is nearly IL pounds per
bale below the reported average for
last year, and the shortage in the num-
Der of bales is therefore rendered more
pronounced by a decrease of nearly
per cent. in the weight of these bales.
On a total crop of 100000 bales this
is the equivalent of an additional de-
duction of 100000 so that the cotton
world If the government report be ac-
cepted as conclusive, land the mar
velous record of the department for ac-
curacy in the recent past abundantly
justifies such an assumption, is con-
fronted with g. crop supply of 100000
bales. Although the market has ad-
canced quite sharply to-day, it is
doubtful If the trade at large
yet appreciates what such
supply means in order to correctly APP
preciate the situation we must go back
to the season of 1899-1900, when the
crop was approximately 100000 bales.
BY the end of that cotton year not
withstanding the fact that we started
the season with a visible supply left
over from the previous crop of APP
proximately 1000 900 bales. cotton went
to pence a pound in Liverpool and
II cents a pound in New York and
the mills were forced to stop their
spindles because, even at this price,
the cotton was not obtainable at the
end of the season.
We commenced the current season
with a visible of only 917, 900 bales, or
less than half that with which we
commenced the season of 1S99-1900. The
crop, according to the government re-
ports, is approximately the same. There
has been normal increase in the con-
sumption of American cotton, which is
now estimated by Mr.. Ellison, the ac-
cepted authority, at between 100000
and II 600 900 bales. If the government
estimate of the American crop is cor
rect and the consumption continues at
the present rate, there would, at the
end of the season, be an absolute
vacuum in the supply. This is, of
course, commercially unthinkable.
Prices must advance to a point that
will compensate such unequal condl-
tions between supply and demand, or,
in other words, to a figure that will
check consumption. With print cloth
selling at cents in Fall River and
the American dry goods trade in con-
dition of unexampled prosperity, with
the markets of China and South At
RIGA reopening to the world as the pro-
cess of pacifcation by the Powers pro-
crosses, there would seem to be little
likelihood OF any great decrease IN tne
demand for manufactured cotton goods
in Europe, and it's not unreasonable,
therefore. to expect that the history
of two years ago will repeat itself, and
that very extreme prices will this year
be recorded. In any event, thanks to
the intelligence Of the Agricultural De-
partment of Washington, the South is
this evening, on the unmarketed por-
ton of its crop, nearly 81 a bale, or
81, 900. 900, better off chan 1t was last
night, and with the advantage of the
present position in it's hands the pros
ducers Of cotton will have themselves
only to thank If they fail, through
judicious action and sound commercial
sense, to realize very much higher
prices for their most valuable crop
by holding It until a price justified by
the present small supply is obtainable.
theodore II. Price.