The county record. [volume] (Kingstree, S.C.) 1885-1975, 1901-06-20
VIEWS OF A BULL
Declares That From Present Condi,
tionS Cotton 1uSt Advance and
Farmers Should Hold.
New York Special to News and Courier. llth.I

lope almost as Strikingly as that a
year ago. Until the publication CT the
Government report on the 31st ultimo
consumers Ct cotton lulled into fame VI
security BY the repeated assert OnS
that the next crop would be a Ia ge
one had leen postponing the'r pur-
ChaseS. and all recognized authorities,
Including Mr.. Ellison. agreed that both
il this country and in Europe the
| STOCKS CT octJon instead Of being con-
sumed were almost the sma!les- pro-
Fortionate % the consumption on rec
ord. in addition 10 the assurances OF
large crop next year, the prevailing
estimates Of the present crop were
from l0.250,GO) to 10.50O.0O0, and the
| feeling was that with the suppi,y OF
/ cotton out Of this years crop AMI a
considerably augmented yield next
year there was no prospect whatever
for anv scarcity. at least for twelve
| months to come. Suddenly, however.
the situation has changed. The Gov
ernment report of the New York Jour
nal CT Commerce. the report Of the
| New York Commercial and that Of
| the Commercial and Financial Chrorl-
Gle are singu'arly unanimous in stat
! ing that the condition of the crop just
| planted is the worst on record. While
the authorities above referred TO agry e
| in reporting an increase of acreage,
| varying from four 10 nine per cent,
| la:er adyices from the South inhiCa'e
that much of this increase i'll acreage
was abandoned when it became neceS-
sary TO replant the seed which hal
| faiied to germirate on account OF the
| drought in Texas or had been wasted
away b. the excessive rains in the
Atlantic States. The result is that the
cotton condition finds itself confronted
| by the probability Of a very largely
reduced production next year. o.
course this may be changed by an en-
! Ceptionally late autumn as we had last
year. and which saved us from vegy
| short crop ami would add materially
/ 10 this years'S yield, but it seems hard
! ly likely that the weather conditions
| In this respect will repeat themselves
! two yeas in succession. At present
VIC have to face the poorest crop con-
| ditionS that we have had in twenty
years. with one exception. and crop
! development, which as stated ly tie
| Commercial and Financial Chronicle
averages the very latest in germin1-
| ting ever recorded" AS to the ara
| age the Chronicle says: Our informa-
tion inclines us to the opinion that tie
! increase is not as large as early in L e
| season was geenrally ANTICIPATED
would be the case" In any event,
| therefore, all idea of mammoth pro-
ducticn next year must be dissiDatcd.
The latness of the present crop max
es an exceedingly open autumn neces-
sary 10 the realization OF even node
rate yield, and this means very GLOW
movement early in the season. A very
! large movement early in the season
! can only follow excessively hos ana
| forcing weather during the summer.
! and anything like drought this year
| it is evident would mean absolute dis
aster to the crop. The alternative with
which we are confronted, therefore,
would seem to be either late move
ment and a very large crop or large
| early movement AMI a diSastrouSly
| short production. 4 recognition OF
| this situation has led to close analysis
| of the present figures OF supply. for
| either we shall 60 into next season
| fearing the smallest crop OF the past
| five years or the cotton we now nave
| on hand must be eked out so az to
meet the requirements Of the worlds
consumption, at least until the lst OF
| October. So far as the crop OF 1860
| 1901 is concerned do not see now
how it can possibly exceed 10,i00,o0o
| bales. There was in sight up TO last
Friday evening 9.654,00O. If we re-
ceive during the balance of the season
as much as we got during the CORES
| ponding period in 1S9S-1S99, namely
4S0 900, the indicated production viii
! be 10,l340L0. | do not think it pos
| sible that more cotton is held back
| than was the case two years ago, when
| the movement during the last three
months Of the season was the .cGi'
nant of practically the largest crop
ever produced Comparisons Of the
movement with this year and last are
valueless. as last year during the cor
responding period the movement was
| fictitiouSly augmented through the
| reduction OF interior stocks. and a
large portion of the cotton officially
coming into sight represented what
was left over from the preceding year.
Assuming a croD for this year. there.
fore. OF 100000. we find nearly the
entire excess in the American visibly
supply is held in America. In Europe
the situation is really extraordinary.
| Notwithstanding the fact that we have
| thus far exported from America 210..
COO more than we did during the same
period last year the total visible Of
America aloat and in Liverpool and
invisible Continental stock is only l..
226,00O, as against 1,206.000 last year.
In other words European situation
last year. in consequence of the late
| rnnrnnnnnt of the American crnn nut