Evening star., 1901-10-16
If Election Were to Come Off Now He
Would Win.
HIS FRIENDS ARE DUBIOUS
Analysis of Situation is Favorable
to Shepard, However
CITY Is DEMOC ATT c

doubt that Seth Low would be electeu Dy
the fusionists. But there is ample opportu-
nifty during the next three weeks for
great many queer things to happen.
Edward NJ. Shepard, the democratic NOM
inee has hardly commenced his speaking
campaign-a campaign which Is expected
to electrify the voters and stir them up as
they have not been moved by a democratic
municipal orator in years. In the previous
campaigns Tammany has usually selected
men who could not or would not talk. In
the last campaign Van Wyck never ap
peared upon the stump. He did not even
issue any manifestoes. Previous to this
men of the Gilroy and Grant type have
been the candidates. Since the days of ex-
Mayor Hewitt, who opposed Henry George,
the workingmen'S candidate, and Theodore
Roosevelt, the republican nominee, there
has hardly been a democratic candidate
for mayor able to give a reason for the
faith within him. However, In justice to
Shepard, 1t can be said that he talk
enough for all of the nen who were candi-
dates before him.
result from the wholesale purchase of
votes, the frauds and intimidations which
Will be practfced on a scale unparalleled
In this city. This will undoubt edly affect
many thousand votes. And of course
vote purchased or driven away from the
polls is just that much lost to the side of
the good government forces.
MIR. Lows Friends Pessimistic.
1t Is a curious thing, but none of Mn.
Lows most intimate friends regard his
election as probable. Your correspondent
today talked to half dozen members of
the faculty Of Columbia University. Not
one of these men are of the opinion that
Seth Low will be elected. Whether this
arises from the pessimsm created by the
fact that Low was defeated four years ago,
when the college people were almost GER
tain Of his election on Citizens Union
ticket, or whether 1t comes from the fact
that these men overestlmate and exagger-
ate the possibilities that can be accom-
plished with the money wrung from sources
of corruption and from unwilling office
holders the unique condition exists that
Lows best friends regard his chances as
not equal to those of the democratic candi-
date.
The element of danger for Low lies in
treachery on the part of the machine and
the possible action of the big brewers and
the republican saloon keepers. If the liquor
interests stand by the democratic ticket
almost solidly, owing to the fear that Low
will enforce the Sunday closing provisions
of the Raine's law, Lows campaign which
starts off so brilliant and energetic will
have been conducted in vain
Study of the Situation.
Students of election statistics fail to
gather but little hope for Low from past
records. 'On FORM as the sporting men
would say, and on the record Shepard
ought to win. In this great commercial
city, with united press In opposition--one
paper alone excepted with the chamber of
commerce: with the Merchants Associa-
ton; with the thousand and similar
organizations opposing him; with a great
gold standard parade; with plenty of money
to get out the votes; with Tammany Hall
lukewarm with the Brooklyn democracy
one in ahll md raft t1cfr to
the Chicago platform with its free silver
monstrosities; with the sincere Bryanites
convinced that the game was not worth
the effort, because even though Bryan
might carry New York city he could not
carry the state, and even though he might
carry the state there was no hope Of carry
ing the election; with all of these things
aiding the republican party one year ago
Bryan carried Greater New York by 80 900
majority. Surely If a democrat was ever
hammered hard and heavy in New York
city that man was Bryan and many re-
publicans there are who openly assert that
the low-water mark of the democratic
party in Greater New York must have been
reached last year when Bryan run
ming. That the democrats will carry Man
haitian Island, considered by Itself, even the
most enthusiastic republicans admit. The
borough of Richmond Staten Island) and
the borough of Queens are strongly demo-
cratic. The borough of the Bronx will go
for Low, but it will hardly offset the demo-
cratic pluralities obtained in Richmond and
Queens. This leaves Brooklyn the key to
the situation.
Brooklyn is Doubtful
And Brooklyn is proverbially unreliable
Kings county is just as likely to go 10000
ono way as another. Shepard has the ad-
vantage Of being a resident Of Brooklyn
at the present time and actively associated
with the interests across the East river.
But, on the other hand, Seth Low before
accepting the office of president of Column
bia University was for years known as
Brooklyn's first and foremost citizen, SO
far public life was concerned. Under
these conditions 1t is almost impossible to
even guess what Brooklyn will do. And
even If Low does carry Kings county or
Brooklyn, is there any hope of his being
able to overcome the Tammany majority
on Manhattan Island?
The early registration shows that the
citizens Of Greater New York are inter
ested in the election, to say the least All
records for registration are broken, save
for the Presidential contest of year
ago. Indeed, the early figures will nearly
equal the registration on the corresponding
days of registration of last October. From
the figures 1t will be possible to at least
venture guess as to the possible vote and
draw some conclusions concerning the gen
eral result. 1t Is probable that the total vote
will be about 100000 in Greater New York
or this Low Is certain to. receive about
210,OOO-the reliable republican, reform and
Citizens Union vote. In order to win it
will probably be necessary for him to re-
ceive about 10000 Independent and floating
votes. Therefore the question that Is agie
tating all republican and reform hearts at
the present writing is whether he can gain
nearly 100000 votes from the democrats
and the patriotic citizens that are not tied
down to party lines.
Difficulties Ahead of Mr. Low.
Roughly speaking, therefore, Lows cleo
ton hinges upon his being able to hold the
republicans, the republican regulars and
the saloon interests in line and to capture
at the same time 100000 votes Of business
men and ohurchmen and high-class citizens
from the Independent and democratic
voters. as well as possibilities Of treachery
in the democratic ranks. If any man can
do this Low, with his experience In public
life. ought to be able to do it. But It will
prove difficult operation, and the magni~
tude of the obstacles to be overcome is not
underestimate either by Low or by his ad-
visers.
The conclusion to be drawn from the
plain unvarnished statement Of facts is
that New York is naturally a democratic
city. When United States Senator Platt
and the republican legislature consented to
the formation OF the greater municipality
Of New York it was probably with the hope
that the indeDendent and renutl{oan n citv NJ