Washington sentinel., 1901-04-27
wiz Italy Change Her Foreign
Policy

/ thG ANCW DIX DIN, Will SCdISGly
an exception, now profess ardent
friendship for Italy, and are dis
posed to argue that the visit oi
the Italian feet to Toulon, like he
visit of the French feet to Kron-
stadt, will have far reaching polit-
ical consequences. A Hungarian
paper takes a similar view, and de-
clares that the Triple Alliance will
not be renewed in 1903, but that,
on the contrary, Italy will become
an ally OF France and Russia. The
presence OF Russian squadron at
Ioulon during the festivities in
honor OF the Italian visitors is
thought to confirm the prediction.
There is another and more proba-
bic theorY, that Italy, while re-
training from joining the Dual AL
lance, will enter into a compact
TO maintain a strict neutrality in
the event OF war betVe cen Ger
many and France.
The latter theory rests on the
authority, such as it is, OF the we'll
known correspondent OF the Lon
don 1fneSin Paris. Mr.. de Blow
itz says that he has seen a letter
from "a parsonage Of high rank in
one Of the small northern powers"
which letter contains an outline Of
an agreement alleged to lie on the
point of signature by Russia,
France and Italy. According to
this Parsonage, the treaty is neither
offensive nor defensive, but simply
pledges Italy, as we have said, to
remain a neutral. A moments
reflection will show that such neu-
tralitY would be OF incomparably
more benefit to France than 10
Germany. In the event OF a war
between the two last named pow
ers, France would no longer be
compelled to keep a considerable
part OF her army on her southeast
ern frontier to withstand a possi-
bic invasion in that quarter and
she would also be able to employ
the whole OF her Mediterranean
feet for aggressive operations in
the North Sea and the Baltic. Ger
many, on the other hand, could
use only part Of her land~iorces
against France, because Russia
would be able, not only to occupy
Austria but 10 menace Germany's
eastern i3ontier-
1t is clear, then, that such an
agreement would be regarded at
Berlin as hostile act, and, while
Germany might not venture to
punish Italy directly bV an inva-
sion, at the risk Of precipltating a
conflict with Russia and France,
she might have recourse to the
weapon which in 1881 87 Bismarck
found effective for the purpose OF
driving Italy into league with
Germany and Austria. That
weapon was an agitation in favor
OF an international guarantee OF
the independence of the Papacy,
a guarantee which would have in
volved revival OF the PoPe's SOW
ereignty over some OF the former
Papal dominions. Such a restor-
alton, if brought about by
exterior pressure, would deal a
more deadly blow at Italian unity
than would the sometimes mooted
voluntary cession OF the Leonine
City, together with a strip oi land
running from it to the sea. The
situation, however, would be ma
terially different from that Of
twenty wears ago, for, if Italy could
count upon the support of France
and Russia, she should be able to
resist any pressure exercised by
Germany and Austria.
In the internal condition OF Italy
at the present time there are indi-
cations that change OF foreign
policy might meet with favor. The
young King Victor Emmanuel III.
is believed to be strongly prepos-
sessed in favor OF France, and he
has already evinced a determina-
ton to be much less oi a figure
head in the Government than was
his father. 1t may be taken Tor
granted that his Queen, who was
a MOntenegrin princess, would do
anything in her power to further
the most cordial relations between
Russia and her adopted country.
Then, again, in the Chamber of
Deputies, the centre OF political
gravity seems likely to be fixed
permanently in the Left, and, the
Left Is not only notoriously anti
Teutonic, in its sympaihies, but
includes the Irrede ntists, who
deem the unity OF Italy incomplete
so long as Austria is suffered to
retain the Trentino and Trieste,
Once more, in LombardY the feel.
ing OF dislike for Austria and o
gratitude 10 France is more perva.