The Bolivar bulletin. (Bolivar, Tenn.) 1888-1946, 1901-02-15
FACTS AND FIGURES

FACTS AND FIGURES
Showing why the Present Cotton VIII Not
Reach Ten Millions, But VIII More
| Likely Be Around Nine and One
Half Million Bales.
| The figures submitted are those Of Mr. II. G..
Hester the efficient superintendent of the New
Orleans Cotton Exchange and arc accepted as
| reliable, correct and official the world over.
! First take the crop OF 1S94-s5, which
On Feb. i, 1895, the amount in sight was sOi4.47o
from Feb. to Sept. 1............... 1855. 7sl
| Add to this the amount that has como
| in sight so far, for the present crop
| Qrom Sept. to Feb. D--...-......-- 1850 ,o16
Should receipts this year be equal to
1 those OF that year, from Feb. to
Sept l, the result would be crop OF 9,476. 79e
/ This result is most probable as receipts
far this year are behind those Of
that year on Feb. 1.-....-.--.....-... 424, 455
IS on Feb. s.o1l. 40
isOi, on Feb Observation-Disclosures. 1880, obs
Amount short OF the crop OF 1s94-s5 on
| rep. L.. "a, 40
We have had an unprecedented fall and win
| ter to pick and move the present crop. beside a
large number OF branch railroads have been
| DulIL SIQCc 1854 IN every StCllOQ OI Tue COTTON
belt, facilitating movements over the slow OK
| carts and mule wagons in use then. Another
potent factor, which is irresistible to increase
and stimulat movements Is the marked differ
ence in price, which is 10 cents for upland mid
ding in New York against 5ss cents then, and
l3-32d in Liverpool against only 31-S2d on
February /, 1S95-almost double.
Again, take the crop Of 1s96-97, which
On Feb i. 1887. the amount in sight was 7.iSs ssi
Making the amount that came In sight
from Feb. to Sept. /. :........-..... 1851 sos
Add to this amount that has como In
sight SO far for the present crop Qrom
Sept. to Feb. d.. ..--..........-.. ,o15
Should receipts of this year be equal to
those of that year fr ON Feb to Sept.
l, the result would be a crop of 9,221, 6lS
The above figures show that the present
crop is only ahead of the crop OF 1896
81 at the same date, Feb. L 463, 654
Against amOanf in s ff' FEB sD 1871
Amount over the short crop of $751;
s64 on Feb. l. ....................... 4s3.654
as much from Feb. to Sept. as they
have to date, this would yet only re-
suit In crop or. OBSERVATION-DISCLOSURES. 9,70S,1n
The difference in price of upland middling in
New York is 10 cents Feb. l. 1901 against
Ole on Feb. 1, 1897, and 13-32d in Liverpool
against 15-16d on Feb. 1, 1897.
Now take the largest crop on record,
the bumper OF 1898 SO, which was. II, 274, $40
On Feb. 1, 1885, amount in sight was. s,s95,532
Making amount that came in sight
from Feb. to Sept. 1............... 2, 379, 308
Add to this the amount that has come
in sight so far for the present crop
from Sept. to Feb. 1..-.........-.... 7,69o,ol5
Should receipts this year be equal to
those OF that year from Feb. to Sept.
1, the result would be a crop Of. e,969, 1923
Scarcely any one who is familiar with the ter
rible condition OF the weather during the fall
and winter of 1s98-99, could be found who would
believe today that the receipts from this on
could be near as heavy as they were that year.
The weather SO far this year has been the finest
ever known, against the very worst in that year
ever known before. Almost a continuous rain,
snow or sleet prevailed the entire season, delay
ing picking and movements. Every man,
woman and child in the South remembers we'll
that Feb. /, 1899, there was scarcely
field in the entire cotton belt, on poor hill as
well as on rich bottom lands, that was not white
with cotton, while this year it has long since
been picked. And that year, in hundreds of
fields as late April and May, was witnessed
the unprecedented sight of cotton being picked
in one part while blowing was in progress at the
other part of the field.
The price that year reached the lowest on
record in New York During November upland
middling was selling for 516c, and on Feb. 1.
1899, 1t was quoted at Csc, against 10 cents to-
day, and in Liverpool it was Sad against 5
f3-32d today. Only day or two ago as high as
II cents was quoted in New York, and a large
quantity of cotton was delivered on this basis.
The difference in acreage between the present
crop and that monster crop is a mere bagetelle.
The Department of Agriculture
makes the acreage for the pres
Against that of 1898 80 "a 967 295 acres
An increase of only. ..... 67,439 acres
Again, take the percentage in sight on Feb.
since 1s94-95 it will be shown to be rs. 24-1O0.
This would result In crop OF 300, 935 bales.
Note that L only figure on the lowest moving
crops, those since my comparison commences
1S94-95. Were to make comparison with the
sixteen years which Mr.. Testers published card
shows, the average for the period would be
81 O9H- 10O which would result in a crop of only
9 $4,000. have made diligent inquiries regard
ing the quantity of cotton held back on planta-
tions, and in uncounted towns, and find that 1t il
no larger than usual and much under last season |
AS to the probable visible supply OF American
cotton on hand on Sept. 1, 1901, so much has
already been said on this subject that shall
only make one statement: cit will scarcely be |
q mere shadow of its former SELF" Mr. Henry |
Neill in his crop report of Nov. %, gives the |
visible and invisible on Sept. 1, 1901, at only |
800, 900 bales. These think. are full figures. as
it is conceded by all authorities that the con-
sumption of American cotton will be around TO- |
100, 600 bales the present season. This will leave
the visible supply on Sept. ], 1901, one of the |
What are the possibilities of above figures and |
statements? Liverpool last September recorded |
this legend on her blackboard: 7I3d for Ameri |
can middling cotton Cor 10 cents of our money!. |
What will be the figures next September? Who |
dare answer? New York only last week had 1874 |
cents for January delivery. What will be the |
figures next May, june, July, August and Sep |
TENDER when the size of this crop is fully real |
lied? The holders OF spot cotton in the South |
have it in their power to get IL and IL cents for
the balance of this crop If they demandit. And
If they refuse to sell for any less they can get IL.
Cotton has sold for II and 13 cents in the South |
for several years not so long ago This is not |
an unusual price In 1879 the writer bought |
middling cotton at 8l2 cents and inside Of sixty
days sold the same cotton for - cents. From
1879 to 1890. except the year 1886, cotton in New
y DIRK has sold around IL cents the latter part of
the In 1890 the price was II to 1885 cents
during the months of May, June, July and part |
of August. Why not get IL cents today? The
Southern holders are in a much better position
today TO hold their staple than ever before. The
rate of interest is about one-half OF what it was
ten years ago. and most Of them do not need to
borrow. Every bale will be needed and wanted |
before Sept. 1, no matter what the prospect for
the next crop will be. as 1t is well known that
Spinners have no stock on hand My advice to
holders OF spots is not to sacrifice another bale
at present low prices. Pay no attention what
aver to the Self-intereSted and biased utteraQCeS