The Washington times., 1901-09-10

u. S SIS, G, 1904, 2. F..-.----... iV' = iVc'a
There had been every reason to expect
that the stock market would be supported
yesterday by the important interests,
and as stated in this column YESTERDAY
morning, many careful people believed
that the chances, for this reason, favored
an advance instead of a decline IN prices.
II is doubtful, however, if many people
expected so buoyant market as realIy
developed before the close of the session.
Prices opened up well, and, after a slight
recession. began to advance again Be
fore the close the level was very nearly
as high as it was before the shooting OF
the President. on the face, the buying
OF stocks was caused by the very cheer
fui tone of the dispatches from Buffalo,
which made 1t probable that the fresi-
dent Will recover from his wounds quick
ly and thoroughly. AT the same time
such a superficial explanation of the situ-
alton would suppose that the incident OF
the shooting is almost over, as prices
advanced nearly to the level Of last Fri
day. OF course, ii cannot be doubted that
there is still great danger for the Presi-
dcnt, and that the public generally real
izcs this. 1t is necessary to assume,
therefore. that the inside interests sup
ported the market in an important way,
buying a large block OF stocks from the
public AS matter of fact, this is what
did occur. The market was manipulated
in the interest OF steadiness and of its
future welfare. The particular strength
exhibited during the late afternoon was
due largely u covering by shorts, who
sold stocks on Saturday and were forced
10 take them back yesterday with various
heavy losses.
The outlook for the future is consid-
cred most hopeful by many careful peo-
pie. Two or three most important mat
ters are suggested by the bulls. One of
these is the remarkable way in which the
market has withstood the many assaults
against it during the past three or four
months. There came the bad news of the
matter utmost
portance-and of the strike against the
Steel Trust, which might have involved
$4,000 men and many millions OF loss to
the trust, and finally the wreckage of
the entire prosperity fabric, and of such
bad bank statements that many people
feared money panic this month; and
despite all these things prices held their
own in a way quite remarkable. And
then there came the shooting of the Pres
ident, with the belief on Saturday that he
would probably die. 1t is needless to tell
anyone familiar with the stock market
in years back that any one of these
things would have been enough to break
the boom in stocks and send prices down
ward, not only temporarily, but for good
and all. The shooting of President Gar
field came at the end of a boom in stocks,
and it caused the beginning of a great
slump in prices that lasted a long time.
The death of Governor Flower came at
the end OF another BOOM only less big
than the present one has been, and prices
dropped many points the next morning
crop failures, too, have been the causes
of srnashes in the market before this.
1t is argued by the bulls that all these
things form cumulative evidence that the
prices OF stocks are not too high, that
they are securely held by people who GO
not care TO sell at the present Level, and
that therefore the chances favor higher
prices The people that take this rosy
view of the situation say that the bust
neGs conditions of the country are an all
fgr he g.T,Yir lew ~
the holders Of securities. And as TO
these conditions there can be no doubt
Railway earnings continue to increase,
and ii Is railway earnings that the
prices of railway stocks primarily depend
The general business activity of the
country seems to promise, too, that the
prosperity OF the railways Will continue
for some time longer.
a more technical reason why higher
prices may be expected in the market is
that the insiders now supporting il have
many plans yet to carry out which re-
quire a strong market for their consum-
nation. This is condition and not a
theory. The Burlington deal is not Vet
perfected. The Gould deal, almost if not
quite ready for announcement, is held up
because il must be, until favorable mar
ket comes. Other plans looking toward
more complete community of interests in
the West are still In the air. These plans
Will either be carried through in a big
bull market or they will fail. The people
mat DelleNe 4dr Morgan ana his friends
viii succeed in their plans must also be-
lieYe that the prices of stocks viii be
higher in the not very far distant future.
With all these reasons for expecting a
further advance it is certain that no one
can say If the boom VIII begin imme-
diateiy. The rapid recovery Of the Presi-
dent would be necessary 10 such a boom
at this time In the first place, and Mr.
Morgan with all his billions cannot know
that this Will occur. The monetary stu
alton is also factor that must be taken
into consideration. The clearing house
fully by giving the assurance that it will
do everything in its power to prevent
money panic. Even so, the clearing house
committee will not be able to prevent the
flow of money to the West and South to
move the crops. and the effect of this
movement is already apparent in last
Saturdays bank statement. This state
ment showed that the surplus reserve is
down to SG.y00,GG0 or about 1000 below
the level of year ago. The danger point
is close at hand here It would seem, for
one OF two further losses of cash equal to
that of last week would wipe out the sur
plus reserve entirely.
1t was said yesterday morning that the
banks had decided to keep the price of
call loans up to per cent indefinitely and
in this way to secure from Europe $40. co.,
900 in the near future. Call loans were
quoted at per cent for a short time but
later .n the day they were down to 3I1 per
cent again and later were offered at that
price and found no takers. At the same
time IL Is entirely probable that there
will be imports of gold shortly, ster-
ling exchange is low and the European
markets have more of the precious metal
than they have had before in a long time.
But even although the money mark ct may
not become panicky, and even although
the insiders may, and probably will, be
able to hold the prices Of securities up
with fair steadiness, 1t seems probable,
hat W he hnon
Immediately.
ST. Paul was the stock most rapidly adj
vanced yesterday. 1t went up to above