The times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1897-1901, 1901-05-07

squirt in way that makes an entirely new
record Tor widness gaining from the low
price of Saturday % points. Money rates
advanced. however and during the later
hour of the day there was a considerable
exhibition of tiredness. The rate on call
loans was advanced to 10 per cent at one
time. Prices receded from a fraction to
5l9 points before the close. The final bust
ness of the day showed no particular
feverishness or weakness, however, and
as the prices We're in general better than
those of the close on Saturday there was
little on which to found bearish opinion
as to the immediate market. AS a mat
ter of fact the level of prices, the furry
of money, and the immense amount Of
business done. evidently largely represent
ing liquidation by insiders, are the
only things that give the bears any show
of reason on their side.
These three matters however, are of
the utmost Importance. When prices adj
vance - points in day IL is evident that
the same thing cannot continue for long
ana when prices are higher than they
ever were before and on a basis at which
the investor realizes only per cent on
his money. it is reasonable to suppose
that there will be a break in the near
future. And when the insiders are liqui-
dating millions OF shares of stock and
the buyers are the greenest of the public.
and the most reckless of the gamblers,
1t is evident that the people best able to
Judge wish to get out, and that the stories
they put out of consultations and deals
OF various kinds should be taken with a
grain of salt. 1t is also evident that the
people that are buying are not the people
that know best how to sell when they are
forced to sell, and that when the break
docs come 1t may be a sensational one.
AS to the new tightness of money the
effect of the advance to S per cent for
call loans on last Friday may be remem-
bered with profit by those that are con-
tempiating purchases at the opening to-
day.
The process of reasoning that the pub
nc mas been using recently that stocks
nave advanced, and therefore are certain
10 continue to advance, is quite as good
as 1t was yesterday or last Saturday.
Nothing yesterday gave any momentary
feeling of uneasiness to the people that
reason in this way But to the conserva-
tive element that wishes more than the
rankest kind of gamble when it makes
purchases there are the best of arguments
why stocks should not be bought. and why,
on the contrary, any long stocks held
should be sold out as soon as possible.
The advance may continue today, and af-
ter the experience of the past two weeks
1T is impossible to say with any show of
positiveness that it will not con-
tinue for several days longer. The
decline is overdue. however, and is
come it will be unexpected by the
public IL 1t comes as declines usu-
ally do. II should be remembered always
that the opinions of nine men out of ten
sariiy tell the truth about the situation,
but that on the contrary the opinions of
these nine are almost sure to be exactly
wrong instead of exactly right. The fast
that everybody" is advising the pur-
chase of stocks means simply that the
people that usually lose in the market
are now bulls.
The Flowers, Mr. Gage, Mr. Rous-
man, Washington Conner. and other
people of like standing in the stock
market are all bears" in the pres
ent market. In other words. they con-
slider prices too high and believe
that decline is inevitable. AS against
the opinions of these people, among the
tenor. that of Mr.. Keene. The showing is
not a very reaSsuring one. These people
have all made their wealth not out of
commissions, but by being on the right
prices are too high except Mr.. Keene, and
his Judgment may be supposed to be very
much biased. He is in the employ of Mr..
Morgan, and Mr.. Morgan pays him well
for being bull. Eight months ago. when
conservative people were advising the
purchase of stocks with no uncertain tone,
when prices were from 20 to so a share
lower than they are now, when there were
bargains everywhere Mr. Keene was a
pessimist Of the worst kind. He came out
with an interview to the effect that prices
must go down, no matter how the cleo
ton should go. Prices are too high" he
said. Now he comes out with another in
terview In which he says that prices are
too low and must advance. Meanwhile
railway earnings are not increasing any
more rapidly than they were eight months
ago. and the exports of the country. of
which he speaks. are not making a show
ing quite es good as they did. relatively
speaking. Business conditions are good.
but they are not bit better than was ex-
pected.
Northern Pacific opened at ia and adj
va n +
urdsy at los and closed at 10. The gain
from the low price to the high In the full
market day was, therefore, rs points.
The best previous record for a similar
period was made by Union Pacific last
week and 1t fell far short Of the Northern
Pacific squirt. II will be noted that the
cihc did on its boom--13S. This evidently
was the aim of the manipulators. Later
the stock broke to 127i1. the closing price
The rumor that accompanied the advance
of the stock was that the preferred
Northern Pacific is to be retired and the
common put on a or per cent basis.
that such plan is under CON
which is not likely, II is not
easy to see why this should cause an
advance OF q points in the common stock
The preferred has never received more
than 4 per cent in the past. and if 1t is to
be replaced by common stock the new
Issue will be in no better position. IF. on
the other hand, 1t is to be replaced by a
bond. the saving of interest. even on a 2
deus The advance of 25 points means an
increase of 1900 in the value OF the
$50, 90 600 Of common stock now outstand-
ing in three market hours. 1t is probable
that the sharp upward movement was
made chiefly by raid on the shorts. who
have been particularly active in this
stock. The bears have been right in
their position that Northern Pacific is not
worth its present price by many dollars
a share, but the insiders have been sue
cessful. which is better than being right
in the stock market.
1t Is curious coincidence that while
Northern Pacific was on it's wild boom
Burlington yesterday was weak for the
first time in many days. Il made a lower
went above 1876 the first time. The low
price reached was 1854. and the close was
at 1865. Liquidation in the stock was
evident. There was little disposition to
sell 1t short, however. owing to the cost
illness of experiments on the short side
heretofore. The bull argument on Bur
lington is that per cent bond of the
Northern Pacific and Great Northern
should be worth JOG. and that therefore
Burlington stock to be turned in for $500
2I2. - " ''
Canadian Pacific had little boom. The
story circulated was that the Canadian
Pacific and Northwest have made an "ar-
ranRement" Northwest refused to boom
to any extent, either on this news or on
the other story that the Vanderbilts have
come TO an agreement with Hartman re-
garding the Union Pacific. New York
Central went up points. and then lost a
ant at the opening, getting as high as
127A. but It sold of later to 12iL, below
the opening level.