The evening times., 1900-03-21

political situation of an alarming char
acter. there is evidence in plenty that the
Old World is standing on the crater of a
volcano which may become active at any
moment. Ministers and ambassadors may
insist that there is nothing about which
the public need be alarmed, but war pre-
paratons are being pushed with what looks
like the energy due to an imminent ne
cessity in Great Britain. France and Rus
sia. and all signs point to the extreme
danger if not the certainty Of an outbreak
1t yet remains to be seen how much or
how little the note which the st. Peters
burg Cabinet is said to be preparing for
transmission TO the British Government
may amount to. II. as is hinted in some
European quarters, il should take the form
Of direct demand for a definition of Great
Britain's purposes in South Africa in re-
lation to the political status OF the South
African republics after their subjugation,
the reasonable presumption is that interna-
IiOnal trouble could hardly be avoided: and
should France join in the diplomatic move
ment. that would render the situation all
the more acute. Lord Salisbury is COM
mitted to the policy OF resenting any hint
at interference: and has taken particular
pains TO advertise the determination Of his
Government to annex the Transvaal and
Orange Free State 10 the Empire as soon
rs peace is restored. In these circum-
Stances such representations as it is ru-
mored Russia and France are on the point
ul making. would be more than likely 10
Precipitate a crisis from which the only
probable escape would be war
There may be nothing IN the gossip Of
the capitals in connection with this expect
81 "eommunique" but that such thing is
among the possibilities is made quite con
C"fyable by the activity with which Russia
a. pressing her designs upon the Sultan $
possessions in Asia Minor. The railway
caGclss ions demanded Of Turkey in tha-
quarter amount to sOmet thing more than the
mere privilege of developing the country
commercially. What the Car insists upon
! tho ght 20 build railways to the exclu-
sion OF every body else the Turkish Govern
neni included and he also demands the
right TO occupy the territory Of the conces-
sions with troops as far as he may ihinh
It necessary for the protection Of his rail
way interests. The Sultan is inclined 10
resist. but his only available friend is pre-
occupied and the one other power which
might possibly come to his assistance an
der some conditions. namely. Germany. is
not generally believed to consider The Rus
sian movement Of sufficient importance 10
her to interfere with it at the price Of
q war.
Should Turkey be compelled TO yield he
result would be that Russia would at once
build strategic railways in Asia Minor and
particularly one which would reach from
The Bosporus clear around to the Egean
Sea, thus effectually Ranking the, to her
closed door OF the Sea OF Marmora and the
Dardanelles. 1t would be the occupation
OF Manchuria over again, and Abdul Hamid
would be completely and finally bottled up
and cut Of from retreat into his Asiatic
domnions when the inevitable time of his
expulsion from Europe shall come. The
Russian pressure at Constantinople has
reached stage where it appears to be bu;
. step or two short of an ultimatum. The
question is: Can Great Britain afford to see
the Turkish Empire thus bisected, and its
bar to the western advance of the Musco-
wife power removed?
II is not only over Asia Minor that the
war clouds gather. There are two other
STERN centres. from either of which the
thunder and lightning Of armed conflict
may burst on little or no notice. The
mobilization Of Russian forces on the
A CHAN frontier proceeds apace, and on
any day We may hear that Russia has
occupied a pert or two on the Persian
Gulf. But perhaps there is still greater
menace to the peace of nations in the situ-
alton at PelIin. To America this is the
point OF greatest Importance, since it is
not improbable that the United States
might be drawn into hostllities in China
should certain things occur in that
quarter. There is great danger threat
encd to our commercial interests by the
apparent inclination of the Empress
Dowager tc slam in our face the door
which the splendid diplomacy" of our
State Department thought il had definitely
opened. Evidently, the Mckinley Admin
istration thinks So or a squadron would
not now be rushing toward the Gulf of
Pe Chi Lii
The present attitude of the Chinese Gov
ernment strongly suggests that il is being
backed in its reactionary policy and pur-
poses by sCme powerful European power,
and appearances would seem to indicate
Russia as that power. But three nations
OF consequence have any particular cen
ceru in maintaining the open door. They
are the United States Great Britain, and
Japan. All the others have entrenched
themselves in spheres Of influence, and 10
eur request that they respect American
treaty rights with China, they reply
that we, too. were offered a Chinese
mainland port and sphere of influence. but
did not have the good sense to accept
them. Now, in case China and Russia
were 10 close the northern treaty ports
we should be confronted with the alterna-
tive OF commercial retreat from China.
which we could i'll afford, or a fight for
the trade privileges we claim in the En-
pire.
la view of such conditions, it is not to
be wondered at that the feasibility Of
sending part of our Philippine army to-
China is being discussed in Government
circles. IL is reasonably certain that
shoGld China ard Russia act together in
On attempt to exclude Great Britain and