The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1900-09-09

adnitthat. II we consider the long seriee OF orsos
by which the progress OF industry has been
marked. from the time when crises first began
seriously to attrsct the attention OF economic
writer's in the latter part Of the eighteenth CEN
fury down TO the present day, we must recog-
nize that these events have been distributed
ohronologically with a certain uniformity OF
interval. In the economic life OF Western
Europe and the United states. the coming OF
a crisis has never been very long delayed. nor
have full-hedged crises Of the first degree OF In
tensty been at any time developed within SIX
or eight years Of one another. Inc general
tendency. 20 an evenness OF spacing between
crises has suggested to some students OF tho
subject that there must be a law governing
the recurrence OF these phenomena. ~ such
a law could be discovered. II would, OF course,
throw light directly upon the causes OF the
crises. AmorS the various theories put for
ward to account for the periodicity or crises
two have been particularly conspicuous. One
Is the sun spot and harvest" theory pro-
pounded BY Prof. W. $. Jevons. II was Mr..
Jevons's idea that, II the perIodicity OF sun
spots could he shown to have a counterpart In
a nuctuation Of harvests, and II this fuctua-
ton OF hayvests, through an unusual pressure
on the autumnal money market, could be shown
to be the cause Of crises, he would have er-
plalned tho law Of periodlcity. The objections
10 this theory are. first. that the alleged perl
odicity OF sun spots l. not established; sec
ondly. that the alleged effect OF sun spots upon
harvests Il not proved. and. thirdly. that. II
sun spots did have an fleet upon harvests In
one part Of the globe. they might have a
counter effect upon another part. For these
reasons Mr.. Jevons's sun spot theory IL now
generally rejected,
On the other hand, II has been suggested
hy thnaa uuho ara familiar With the mart which
the uss OF credit has played In bringing about
certain crises that crises in general must be
separated by an interval commensurate with
the period required for building up a credit
structure. II the attractions Of credit which
lead TO its use lead ultimately to its abuse, time
must be given for this force 20 build up a top
heavy structure. the destruction or which
constitutes tho oTsis. After the reverses OF
a crisis have warned the community OF the
dangers OF unsound business. o certain lapse
OF time il required for business men 70 undergo
the intellectual change necessary before the
practices which lead TO crises can again be-
come common Time II required 10 forget
and to let hope gradually rise again, and 10
let the mind become busted In plans wherein
hope changes TO confidence. and this gradually
blossoms into rashness. The period OF crises
will then be fixed, as J. s. Mill suggests.
by certain Dftlllhtllltb VI IL b'AlhhAi hiii'N
or as Adolph Wagner has expressed It. by a
psychological law in which an organic defect
OF human nature Is betrayed. To complete
this theory a suggestion has been put forward
from another quarter II has been maintained
that the periodicity OF crises rests upon the
procession OF economic generations. The re
placement Of an older generation by a younger
Is continually going on In the business world
a. elsewhere. II has been held that, In ten
years after some trying experience. the change
In the personnel OF business leaders will have
been so great that the new men will be iniu-
ential enough 10 permit a temperance OF
dangerous practices. such a. the experienced
generations, partly supplanted. would not
tolerate. This view. OF course, does not I'M
ply that a new generation entirely replaces
the old one every ten years; stu less does IL
mean that at any particular time there Is any
unusual replacement OF one generation by
another. II simply asserts that in ten years
not only will the keenness Of the lesson OF
crises be somewhat dulled TO those who have
passed through the crises, but that the new
leaders untarned by this chastisement will
constitute so large a faction IA TO exert material
influence in permitting dangerous practices
to be adopted.
The theory Of the cause OF financial and In
dustrial commissions which has just been set'orth
IL Of course. propounded by those who hold,
a. almost all writer's on the subject do hold.
that there Ia such a thing as a Psychology OF
crises. We are thus brought to the chapter
which Prof. Jones devotes 10 this particular
topic. He undertakes to answer the question.
Why does the desire for wealth miscarry in the
effort 70 satisfy itself and lead 70 such wastes
OF accumulations IA are involved In a crisis'
He begins by reminding us OF What we know.
81 ~ ERnanaNf
OF contenting a desire excites emotion. A
piece Of good fortune happening TO one person
which brings near the prospect OF wealth to
others will often craze an entire industrial
community. This phenomenon Is exempli-
fed in the history Of prospecting for metal.
In California, after the fret discoveries in lSe.
the state WAS searched from end to end for
gold. Again in 1850 the reported finding OF
a ledge Of pure silver brought on a craze for
the white metal. when a rich but shallow
vein Of copper was discovered at Copperopolis
in Calaveras county in 1850 a copper mania
was started which eliminated In 1863. During
the great oil speculations In Pennsylvania a pc
| troleum fever seized the State. II is equally
we'll known that a state OF high mental excite
ment precedes and accompanies a crisis. and
slowly subsidies after 1t. The existence OF such
states of feeling suggests TO Prof. Jones the expe-
dienCv oil examining tHt eHetN WHICH, nc oh-
centration Of desire in an extraordinary degree
upon a given object and the concomitant arous-
ing OF strong emotions may have upon the
Judgment and tho conduct. In order TO trace
that effect he invites Va to consider how strong
desire accompanied by intense feeling may
influence the Interpretation Of matters OF rec
objection on tho one hand and may shape an
ticipations on the other. In both cases the
guiding principle seems 10 be this; that a pow
erful feeling tends to bring all the operations
Of the mind into harmony with itaelf and to
Danish from the mind all considerations that
are not In accord with itself. That. is to say.
the mind becomes unbalanced. The effect OF a
strong desire on the recollection seems dis
tinguishable in four ways: First. the force OF
the original impression made on the mem
DRY depends upon what our Interest in
the matter was az the time. Az II has been
pointed out: Recollection II a s%elective
process: what stamp itself on my memory
IL what surprises me or what deeply interests
me at the moment" Secondly. there is a
tendency in the human mind to confuse the
recollection Of external actualities with that
Of subjective states due 20 Imagination and
desire. The tendency IL to assume in recol-
, lection that all impressive mental states re-