New-York tribune., 1900-10-20
NO "DOLLAR WHEAT IN SIGHT.

On August 13 an interview was published in
which a high authority on agricultural matters
predicted that wheat would sell at 81 a bushel
before the end of the year. AS farmers might
have been misled and tempted to hold their
wheat for this attractive price, The Tribune
explained the mistaken basis on which the
estimate was founded AT that time over 80
cents was quoted, and now the price is three
cents lower, although the new year is more
than two months nearer; but conditions still
favor low quotations.
The principal reason given for the expected
advance was the growing domestic consumption,
and examination of official records showed that
the per capita consumption was then obtained
by subtractng the exports from the total crop
and dividing the remainder by the estimated
population This naturally included the amount
used for seed as well as the stock on hand at
the end of the year, and as such visible and
invisible supplies well as farm reserves
must have been unusually heavy after the big
crop of 1S9S-'99 it followed that the result was
almost six bushels for each inhabitant The
statement was also made that the growing
prosperity of the country must bring a still
greater demand, and consequently nearer seven
bushels per capita than six was Anticipated for
the current year.
Applying the same method to the next CROP
however brought different result for the Weld
in 1S99-1900 was officially given as only 547 3O3-
$40 bushels, and exports were 1S6090,56 This
left 361, ,276 bushels, which, being divided by
the mean population for the crop year gives
4.67 bushels per capita. BY curious coinc-
dence this happens TO be the amount actually
consumed by each person, according to the best
authorities on the subject. OF course. there
was Il heavy surplus carried over from the
previous year, the customary allowance for
seed would have made q deficit. Instead the
season ended with large visible supply, and
it has since increased to 56.97S.OOO bushels
A natural result of speculative efforts to sus-
tain prices above last years level is seen in
/ the export movement during the crop year
thus far, which was 54901 800 bushels. against
62, 1919 last year, with prices four to six
cents lower. Foreign needs were less urgent
and, moreover profitable prices are now hiring.
ing out shipments averaging three million
! bushels weekly from Russian and Danubian
ports Instead of securing 81 a busbel for
wheat, dealers are doing their best TO kill tho
foreign goose that has been laying the golden
eggs.
Severe losses in spring wheat States did not
prevent splendid yield in winter wheat States
nor did they clear away the accumulated SIM
plies Of the previous yield and the record breals
ing crop two years ago Foreign crop condi-
lions grow more encouraging. and the outlool,
abroad is decidedly better than it was two
months ago Furthermore. receipts at Western
cities since July l exceed those of the corra-
spending part of last year, Indicating that farm
ers have ample grain and are willing to accant
present prices. The known shipments abroad
together with generally accepted domestic con.
sumption for food and seed, and weekly sto+r
ments Of supply, all make it clear that the asti-
mates OF the total crop, based on official retrrne
OF acreage and condition. are much below rho
actual yield this year, as usual