The evening times., 1900-05-15
LIMITS OF THE BOER War
Three Months Allowed for the Fed
eraIist Endurance.
Spenser Wilkinson Makes Estimates
rican struggie-ComPiete occuPa-
ton May Require Six MOnths-POs-
sibiIity~ of kafir Interference.

NEW YORK, May dispenser Wilkin-
son, Of London, the military writer, in an
article on How Long VIII the Boer War
Last?' which will appear in the forth
coming edition OF Leslie's Weekly, after
alluding 10 the uncertainties as to the
duration of earlier wars, says:
The duration of war depends partly
upon the nature Of the country in which
it is waged. but much more upon the rel
ative resources of the two belligerents and
the energy and determination which each
of them throws into it. The last mined
is probably the most important factor.
Il have from the beginning expected
that the Beers would make a desperate
fight According TO their view. the cause
for which they are in arms is that Of their
independence, or their national existeL-e,
and for that cause every community will
fight harder and longer than for any
other.
Great Britain is fighting for the unity
of her empire and for the moral existence
Of the British nation, hut the dispropor-
tion between the resources Of the British
Empire and those OF the Beer Republics
is so great that neither the British Govern
ment nor the constituencies by whose
tone it IS accustomed TO guide itself are
able TO realize the Importance Of extreme
exeTtiOns to bring the war speedily to an
end.
L hardly expect the resistance of the
Boer armies in the field to be prolonged
for much more than three months but 1
should not be surprised If the effective
occupation Of the whole country required
a further six months Of continuous ef-
fort
There are now under command OF Lord
Roberts altogether 100. 600 .nan. and even
if the most liberal deductions be made for
casualties OF all sorts for inyalids. for
garrisons left on the communications and
for troops stationed in the districts lately
disaffected, and after making all allow
ances there is still abundant material for
Lord Roberts TO attack the Beers with
force outnumbering their whole army.
"On the lowest estimate of what the
British commander of Natal can do, he
must hold fast a respectable fraction OF
the Boer forces The remainder cannot.
without great danger, fight a pitched bat
tie against Lord Roberts. for in that case
his attack will certainly envelOp them and
involve them in disaster. AT the best they
can delay him and harass him in his COM
munications. IL is little more than
months march from BloeInfon tein 10 Pre-
toria. The Beers. by the various expe-
Olenls open 10 lEen. OF fear-glla F4- ~ mons
and OF raids on communications may pro-
long this time by a couple of months; but
in the process. even though they should
escape crushing defeat. their army would
be used up. After that there is nothing
left to them but guerrilla warfare. or the
attempt at wholesale trek TO the
north.
There are many unknown elements,
however. which conceal various possibiIi-
ties which cannot gauge The whole Of
South Africa is inhabited by Kafir tribes,
who far outDumbeT all the white settlers
II the kaftrs were to join in the fight on
one side or the other, no one can fOresee
what would happen. A second set of pos
sibilities lies in the general course Of the
worlds affairs. The longer the duration
OF the war the greater the SCOPE for the
occurrence Of unexpected events in some
other quarter OF the globe which might
modify the whole situation