The times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1897-1901, 1900-10-15
MUDDLED BY FORECASTS
The Political Situation Clouded by
Conflicting Claims.
Neither Democrats Nor Republicans
Modest I'm Their Prophecies as to
the Outcome-A belief Tint the ST.
lc1t Vote VIII BE Cast for Bryan
The Influence of Wall street.

CHICAGO, Oct. 1.-THE information
gathered here from Michigan, wise nsin
Minnesota, Kansas. and Nebraska, is Of
q political cocktail variety. The n2tioaal
committees now swarm with election
forecasters. At the Republican hsadquar-
tiers The other day / met about a dozen
named States, and they said that all wcra
going for Mckinley but Nebraska by from
10000 to $4,000. They expected to carry
Nebraska, but by not more than 1902.
The next day at Democratic headquar-
tiers l ascertaired that Bryan had sure
thing of Kansas and Nebraska. and sood
chance of carrying Minnesota. Nj chigi n,
and Wisconsin. So it seems that tie po-
litical information you pick up in COM
mittee headquarters is worthless. If You
talk with Mckinley managers it is four
years more for the President without any
doubt. and if you mix with the Bryan
managers the Nc5raskan will win in Il
walk.
Last Sunday evening there were ten
United States Senators in Chicago. They
were Cullom and Mason of IL sis, Fair
banks and Beverage of Indiana, Hanna
of Ohio, Jones of Arkansas, Wellington OF
Maryland, Depew CT New York. Tillman
of South Carolina, and Spconer CT Wis
consin. They were all interviewed by n
press correspondents. Fairbanks and
Beverage gave it is their hcnt st and de-
liberate opinion. after close obsarva ion
and careful study of the situation, that
Mckinley would carry Indiana by as large
a majority as he did in 1896. which was
$4,000. Sergeant-atArEs Ransd I'll, CT the
United States Senate backed his Senators
up in this claim.
Cullom and Mason asserted that there
was not the least doubt in the world ss
to how the electoral vote Of Illinois
would go. They knew that Mckinley
would carry it, and in their judgment, by
from fifty to one hundred thousand plu-
rality. The genial efferyesc n. Dspew
was confident that New York would not
go less than 100000 for Mckinley, and
Spcoaer expressed the opinion thai VS.
consin was overwhelmingly Republican
Chairman Hanna felt sure Of the result,
II
subscriptions to the campaign fund.
Speaking OF Hanna, these here on the
inside say that he is completely stuck
on himself these days as a puoiic speak
er. He has got the idea deep in his b al
that his speeches and his alone will save
Mckinley. He has even gone Sd FAR as &c
tell his friends. confidentially, that If he
had time to canvass Chicago ON the stump
he could swing Cook County for his
friend. The old man is certainly husu ns.
He went to a town hal! here a few nj hts
ago. and spoke to crowd CT about $50 70;
over an hour. He was practic;ng his Or
atory fer his Western tour like Dsmos-
themes. for his auditors were about as
noisy as the roar CT the ocean, as they
were not in sympathy with the Repub-
Lean boss.
The three other Senators here. Jones
TillInan. and Wellington, were firm il
\ their belief that Bryan would be elected
II is simply impossible to lather any re-
liable information as to the pclitical sit
uation from a campaign manager or q
public speaker. The reason for this is
that N the first place they do not know
anything mere about it than you Go, aud
in the second place if they did they would
not tell you. 1 met enc homes spell
binder here. at least he gave me an ap-
parenily honest answer. | asked him
what he knew about the situation, ard he
replied:
Il dent knew much, but what / dc
know i don't think is true
But there is one thing that a grea,
many politicians have found out, and tina,
is that there is a tremendous silent vote
10 be cast at this election, and 10 enc
knows now it will go. and the way it does
go viii elect Mckinley or Bryan by big
mn ha a-A,tbl inay n1a ;y,,t h,, Il;
silent. doubtful vote will go for Mckinley
while the Democrats claim II will go for
Bryan. There is no possible way of as
certaining which Of these claims will come
true. This silent vote is all up in the air
One cannot see 1t or grasp it. 1t will rot
make itself known until the ballots are
counted on the night of November 6.
Under these circumstances enc can see
the absurdity CT all these election claims
by political managers and speakers. They
do not know anything more about how the
election is going than you do for the sim
pie reason that the silent vote, which
will determine the result, is the unsoIved
problem. The Intelligent citizen who
takes enough interest in politics to read
the newspapers and talk with his neigh
bors knows just as much about how the
campaign is going and the probable re.
suit of the election az do the public
speakers or the political rooter. He
knows that in his own town Tom, Dick
Frank. and Harry are going to vote as
usual. but that Fritz and John are keep
ing quiet and he nor no one else knows
how they are going to vote. II he only
knew how the two latter were going iC
vote he would perhaps know what III,
result in his town or precinct might be
AS II Is he has to wait until election da,
to ascertain how Fritz and John voted
and then everybody is as wise as he is.
Fritz and John represent the silent
vote. Fritz and John are ubiquitous ad
fnfinitum in every voting precinct in The
Union. On account of the trusts. the ag.
grcgation OF wealth and the extravagances
OF the Administration and its tendenc,
to imperialism, Fritz and John may de-
eide to vote for Bryan and thereby elect
him. On the other hand, these two mer