Arizona republican., 1900-10-04
A DIVIDED STREET.
The New Securities Have Filled
 It With Chaos
There is No Distrust or Fear of the Future But a Difference of 0pin- ion as to the Course Speculation Will Take.

now NaH street IS Tn the unprOnllSlnS predicament of being divided against itself. It lacks leadership and definite drift There is no controlling agree ment about the nature of the situation or it's tendency for the near future. There may be the material out of which a more animated market could be shaped; but there are few indica- tions of any movement in that direc- tiOn. The truth is there are many things affecting speculative movements about which opinion is uncertain and conflicting. Everybody realizes that the great industrial revolution of the last two years has thrown considerable uncertainty over a large mass of in vestments. It can hardly be said that those changes have created much posi- tive distrust; on the contrary, it is quite generally recognized that outside of some of the new issues of industrial stocks of very dubious value the re- constructed industrialS represent Q most important aggregate of securities destined, to a considerable extent, to ultimately command a fair amount of confidence with investors.
 The things that are uncertain about these new securities are the extent to which their distribution has already reached it's final adjustment; the extent to wLich they will become a permanent element in the speculative transactions of the stock exchange; the extent to which they will prove acceptable as col lateral in speculative loans; how their market value will compare with their rate of earnings; and what will be the of At Gft h large accession to the list of stocks ne gotiable on the stock exchange.
 These questions are neither very readily nor very easily answered. They cannot be regarded as satisfactorily settled until it has been ascertained how far the new issues are to be ab- sorbed by permanent investors. On this point there is little definitely ma tured opinion; and for the present, therefore, the market is harassed by the chances of an over supply of industrial stocks coming from the original holders in their desire to transmute their in vestments. This is an ugly uncertainty. which it may take some time to get rid of.
 At present, railroad stocks bi.ng much higher prices, relatively to their
 
 industlfals. Some take the view that, when the finances of the new corpora tions have been tested by experience, their issues viii rise in public appreci- a.tion and therefore in price; and hence | they reason that the industrials will ad- vance and railroad securities decline This opinion may be confirmed by the event, or it may not; but it can have no material effect upon the immediate course of the market, for considerable time must elapse before the problem is settled still it is q card that may do some service for the bears on rail roads. The uncertainty about the out come of this sort of competition be- tween the industria1s and the railroads is really one of the most important eIe- ' ments row affecting the course of the market ard is producing the waiting attitude that so prominently character izes the business of the exchange Another cause of the quiet in specula- tive operations arises from the election canvass. Though not by any means an exciting campaign, it yet touches very sharply the pocket nerve of the coun- ] try. It raises the question whether we | can safely take it for granted that there | can be no disturbance of the gold basis; and the financial interests are so eX- ceedingly sensitive about that vital is | sue that a chance of even one to ten 1 in favor of MT Bryan's election is suf- | ticient to deter not q few from investing l or speculating. The possibility might count for little were there any strong i bullish tendency in force: but. in the | absence of any special indictments to buy. it is to be reckoned as one of the influences making for dullness
 The banking position, as usual at this i season of the year, is not encouraging to speculative buying; but neither does 1t decidedly encourage selling. Every | body takes it as matter of course that We must have more or less stringency and high rates of interest during the fall months; but there is little eXDecta- ton of more than the usual autumnai activity in money. During the expired period of. the crop movement, the ship ments of currency have been below the average volume for the season. owing to the abundance of the deposits in the banks of the interior. We have to face. however an effiuX of money extending over the next six weeks. The reserve of the banks may not suffice for those requirements; but in the event of any stringency. the foreign exchanges would admit of a ready replenishment through importations of gold. With a continuance of the now protracted large excess of exports over imports (which may be regarded as certain), there can be no occasion for apprehension of any thing like serious stringency in money. The United States is very largely credi- tor to Europe and can therefore easily shield itself against adverse tendencies in the domestic loan markets.
 There is one factor which should go far towards neutralizing any adverse tendencies in the stock market. The mercantile community appears unani- nous in the conviction that we may safely calculate upon another season of unusual prosperity. Two years of such extraordinary trade activity as We have already had. reinforced by continued bright prospects, affords the strongest kind of assurance of revival in the