New-York tribune., 1900-03-14
THE WHEAT SITUATION.
To the Editor Of The Tribune.

To the Editor OF The Tribune.
Sir: The official estimate of wheat in farmers
hands on March 1 agrees remarkably with the
best unofficial estimate, which is 164oooooo
bushels. against 2o4oo000o a year ago, while
the Government reports 15S. 100000, against
1aS 600 600 a year ago. Both represent de-
crease of about 100000 bushels. while the
visible supply of wheat was 54,oS4.Oo0 bushels
on March l. against 294I1000 last year, an IN
crease Of - 600 000. But to the quantity visible
there must always be added considerable per-
centage. at this season at least half for COM
nercial supplies not in the regularly reported
stocks and for -four awaiting a market which
would make the increase in supply outside
farmers hands about 81. 100000 bushels. against
a decrease of 100000 bushels in stocks held
by farmers The quantity required for consump-
tion as food is about 100000 bushels more
than last year. but with current prices httie
lower than a year ago there may be a httle less
used for seed. on the whole. the supply appears
relatively larger in comparison with the pros
pective demand than it was year ago. because
foreign requirements were still over lIoooOoO
bushels in February, 1899. after having exceeded
20 100000 bushels each month for five months.
This crop year there has been no month in
which as much as 17.500000 bushels has been
taken for export. and after dropping below
140e0o00 bushels in December exports have
been only about 13.000000 bushels monthly in
January and February Had prices of late been
unusually high. there might be sufficient reason
for delay of foreign purchases yet to be made
but the markets have fairly invited buying. and
Vet exports have fallen in the two months end
ing with February nearly 14,000,0O0 bushels be-
low last years. II would not be natural to eX-
pect under such circumstances as large foreign
demand as took from this country 55541 ,S4l
bushels in the months from March to June in
elusive last year. AS the visible supply remain
ing last July was 81. .5S7. coo bushels, reduced
ports from stocks nearly as large are likely this
wear 10 leave a somewhat greater quantity to
be carried over to the next crop year. The price,
which fell below 50 cents when this crop year
began does not seem to have reason for
going higher until it ends unless the weather
should prove unfavorable TO the coming crop
Government estimates of yield are not very
satisfactorily supported by the report of stocks
on hand Exports in the eight months of the
crop year have been 12t, 10000 bushels, and
20 100000 bushels have been added TO visible
supply while the consumption food in two
thirds OF the year. at the usual rate in proper
ton TO population, would be 240,00O.0o0, and
about 100000 bushels have been used seed
This disposition of 425,O00.0 900 bushels with the
quantity officially reported remaining in
farmers hands would make about 5S4O00GOO
bushels whereas the official estimate of yield
was only 547 100000. II has been the custom for
some years past TO assume every year that
scrne mysterious stock hand and unsuspected
before the year began explains the excess Of
consumption and exports over reported produc-
ton, but that convenient but imaginary ad-
ditional supply cannot be carried along forever
to fill gap after gap without exhaustion. The
more obvious explanation is also the more rea
sonable that the Government has not yet been
able TO overcome the tendency TO report the
yield smaller than il really is When the old
time correctness Of official estimates de-
stroyed. il was through a widely and laboriousy
disseminated impression that the growers could
be benefited by securing high prices in the
ket during the months in which of their
grain was sold. But the markets have so long
ceased TO be Influenced by such estimates that
the effect OF habitually expected understate-
ments is hurting rather than helping the
farmers.
The increasing use of American in for
eign countries las become a very important
factor in the wheat business. Until within a
few years there never as much 100000
900 bushels of corn exported, and though that
quantity was exceeded slightly in the fiscal year
1890 with a very small wheat crop it was never
reached again until 1896. But in only
eight months of the crop year 1895. 141 bush
els Of corn. including meal have gone abroad
against 1869. .4S9 bushels last year, move
ment indicating exports for the gear consider
ably exceeding 200OoOO0O bushels as in the
year before last If il be supposed that in gem
eral correspondence with the difference in value
two bushels of corn take the place OF one bushel
OF wheat in consumption the change in foreign
demand within recent years may be held equiv
aent a substitution of nearly 150,00O,0OO
bushels more corr Lnan was formerly purchased
in place of 10,000,o00 bushels of wheat which
would otherwise be required from this country.
In value both farmers and this country gain a
little, but much more in having established a
greater foreign market for both grains, of which
both rarely fall short in the same year.
New-York, March 13, 1900. w. NJ. q.