New-York tribune., 1900-10-24
DEMOCRATIC FORECASTS.
"a TWO OF THEM ALIKE. AND THE<
LATEST A CONFESSION OF
DEFEAT
~ rrLEeRAPH 10 THE TRBuNE.I

Eg--o~.s chances IN me Electoral College. J. G.
T,hasor. Senator J x Jones's assistant ralhoo"
,hsse- sr the Bryan headquarters IN ChlcasO'
r,ust be- suffering untold -ortures from us neon
ir-e-c.es unless indeed. he be mailed n an IN
peae-rz5.e epl6er-nis which IS not improbable
On October g. in Joness temporary absence. oy .
,eroe-t doubtless. 10 give johnson cAA-lce .
seh his maiden sword the latter issued an oIlcls-
e,-soas- of the electoral vote II November, con- I
ssar-v claiming as sure" for Mr.. Bryan thirty
one States with 800 electoral votes, assigning 70
Mckinney only eleven States. with q votes. and
counting the -hree States Of Michigan. Minnesota I
ana Nev--Tersev as doubtful As The Tribune /
pointed our day or TWO later. Johnso1s fore /
csst" Vas precisely the same in the number OF
s-z-es claimed Tor Bryan similar estimate /
issued by Rstubow Chaser Jones himself just four
years before Il was significant. however. that
win al his assurance 1I- Johnson took West Ntr-
En.z out Of the Democratic column OF claims"
even ouc Of TIE Democratic column Of doubtful
and placed sQ-arely over on the SIDE Of MchAln-
ley So much for Johnson for Il IS unnecessary 10
discuss MS claims 70 such States as New-York.
Ohio Wisconsin. etc
on the same day that Johnson thus put himself
IL evidence rhA branch Of the Democratic National
headquarters which hibernates II New-York City.
issued official forecast which was approved by
each member of the committee present. Queerly
enough. th5s consensus ot Democratic official
opinion Bryan was put down for only go votes, q
reduction Of 81 ar one jolt from Johnson's estimate.
while his rLcEar5Iv concession Of only @ 10 Nc
Ez1ev vas raised 10 81 Only . votes were cassed
as doubtful Quee-er s-iu- their doubtful States
were Kansas. Nebraska Organs own, Nevada and
Virginia. The last named OF which Johnson had
credited 10 Mckinley on the contrary, JohnsOn's
doubtful States q Michigan. Minnesota and New
Jersey were placed firmly IN the Republican column.
California Delaware North Dakota. Ohio. South
Dakota Wisconsin and Wyoming claimed at the
Chicago end Of the line sure" for Bryan. were
inco--inea-ly tossed over TO Mckinley by the New
York bureau q experts. Here was richness. TO be
sure And there is sriL more Of IT,
THE GAME OF BRAG AND BLUFF
On Saturday last October 90 the New-york
branch issued supplemental "forecast." calcu-
lated 70 PIT N-- Johnson il countenance again. as
f. came back nearly TO his figures both OF States
and electoral votes This forecast claims thirty
one States and 3ls votes for Bryan. Fourteen
States only. with 81 electoral votes are assigned
70 Mckinley or called doubtful Readers will have
no c-1hcult- n agreeing with the Hon. William
Joa stones smiling admission thar this last effort
IS q game OF b-ag and bIuif'' when they note that
California. Delaware. Illinois Indiana Kansas
Maryland. New-York. New-Jersey North and
South Dakota. Ohio Wisconsin ana V-zo-,fre- a-a
down on The is for Bryan
But IL Is no part OF The present purpose n dis
Tute these claims" There have been u,anv other
estimates rroI2 Democratic sources. all differing
more OF les II The items making Up the bill OF
particulars OF Bryaus sure" election ner+ NJ
vz-rbe- but heretofore all agreeing thar re g -
oe winner II = unnecessary 20 90 beyond au-
th0-irattve forecasts 70 disclose how Inconsistent
Ho6s m
arrive AZ This dubious conclusion
The last one is from next 10 the throne frsafs
On Sunday last The Hon Adlai E Stevenson senr
OF another forecast from Chicago which =tngu-
la-ly enough appears 70 have been evolved on he
same Gay the 'brag and blur estimate was fig
u-ed II New-York AIr Srevenson's figures 2lav
az g-sgs havoc with the NeVy-York forecast as the
lstreFs hrsu estimate did with Johnson's rainbow
O. L@1ooe- 3 are the Two headquarters IN the
dezr-h O. anything else 70 DO playing AZ seesaw
rFu-F 171T1G zr7-zv
observe that there IS not much brag and bluff
about his last Chicago statement Of chances, tor
his E.cePresi1enriaI candidate uEhesiraingly sets
down f0- Mckinley he rwenty-seven votes OF
California North Dakota. Wisconsin and Wyoming.
Il as v-r 55v- anS 7 ~ Tol-e11 %4o ps.T2S r -
-he 21-E. put OUT BY Ex-Governor stones experts /
Il II SSv -gns NJ t1s2 @ P9T Hzet 55 ss5+a-s, SgTs
votes actually c0Lfess-ng himself short BY thirty
1ye G ne necessary majority Il Is falling of
q -e- states aCG y votes rom The es--rnate tee
-z--7- -rae- --e5--3-1- - -ra r-7s--c--7 -7g[e -
re<r-e ~ -7-es e-a est AT~ Stevenson Is r7o~e /
liberal with President Mckinley than his New-Yo-t
e1-1al---ee practically admitting that the Fepuoli-
50 quickly after the New-York forecast. bis esti-
- ~ -- ing - 3e @ - -l=-e--e- IsoUA5 o.
-l-cll1-s and thereby Injure rather than promote /
5sy-7s success He assigns fifteen sl9ses 70 Nc Nc /
0-ra-e 5C-7-4-y7 14is roo5z-srfo7 fs [To-+h- a.
r1---z-s OF clzsseL b- them as doubtful are set .
cow IS 5--e Bryan States IN his Laoula1on-- {
Indiana E-=E-lckE. Maryland, Nebraska Nevada +
and L--E- Sixteen such States were included n 4
--e E-g--L.-z forecast L must have been Z bit (
Icy r-l 10 The Holman House Juuta 70 ind -1e-r /
-LCz-ECeSlCe1cE coO-V Jak-1g Z
A-77-2 ok Ohio. Illinois. Wisconsin. Kansas, cali
lorna and several smaller States with u electoral
votes right 1f their sure thing column and Z
assigning them Mckinley cOCceC-1G I1en 10 /
D. doubtful n the effort commend MS forecast
- serious consideration M Stevenson mas, N I
-lc-- left hardly q tai feather IN the DeTno-Fop (
rooster painted II such gorgeous plUnage only lhe
1-- he-c-s ny ea- oV@-cor stones -1o-k
artists
SOME SIGNIFICANT CONFESSIONS
Al he P0pocra-c prophets differ 50 widely about .
Tl-- states are sure and what others are doubt .
81 largely 70 5iss5pate the value OF their (
prophecies Nevertheless out OF al this porher OF /
t--E and bluE several important truths are IN
v.--i-s-y permitted 70 peep cut IL Is perfectly
c-=-- that TIE sls-o1srs are nov aware that they /
c--Cc- VIII Vi-hC4r New York, and that they have
gwen -p hope o. carrying eldugh OF the Central
=s- 70 e-e-- Bryan one BY one they nave 81
~ ------g1L - -sco-E-r and Minnesota now NJ
1.er-----1 c1l1c=Sez his own State OF Ll1oS 10 De
cl-l----- and also the former Bryan states q
kansas south Dakota &ro washington II "-i-
az- D. EC-@l that Vest Virginia LOOKS hopeless 70
CAST IS Z confession q defeat In the lace OF ne
E-1--l- confidence Is 10 New OK. NeW-JsstSest
----r1-S. concession LLaL nose S-dLSS
ere -r-1--L- Is most s2D11carL- tAeeIl Iyl4-l--z1
awe - rnsr Il Michigan. Wisconsin, Minnesota
a11 Iowa firmly IN the Mckinney current
= Is equally certain thai ILLINOIS, l-ldlaL-@@
Alc ONO. i nor Kentucky. are going win them
5-- who is The final authority on fusion c-al1lsE
1frout-1 -tf- Estauc-Fu