The Banner-Democrat. [volume] (Lake Providence, East Carroll Parish, La.) 1892-current, 1900-12-01
THE POSITION OF COTTON.

The Picaqune of Monday last has
the following TO say on Mr.. Neill's
late guess on the cotton crop:
The publication, few days ago,
of what must be considered MIR. II.
Neill's official cotton crop estimate,
has served to draw attention anew to
the situation prevailing iu cotton.
According to Mr.. Neill, he-crop will
be between 9,500,000 and 9,!50,OOO
bales; but Mr.. Neil says very frank
ly that 'this frost (referring to. the
cold snap of Nov. s and 81, in my
opinion, makes my outside figure Of
8 "a quite unattainable. The i'm
preston accordingly prevails that he
leans towards his inside estimate,
namely, 100000 bales.
Mr.. Neill's views harmonic favor
ably with the opinions current among
the cotton producers throughout the
South, and not unnaturally the crop
prophets reputation. has risen in
their estimation. On the other
hand, the foreign spinners who
pinned such implicit faith to Mr..
Neill's predictions last year, are now
unwilling to accept his views, be-
cause they fail to agree with their
opinions. Accordingly, they are dis
posed to wait until the United States
Department of Agriculture in its De-
cember report confirms or discredils
Mr.. Neill's predictions.
The situation as for as the great
crop prophet is concerned, presents
rather amusing contrast with that
which prevailed last year. Then the
producers were loud in their protests
because his views failed to agree with
theirs, while, on the other hand, the
foreign spinners were answering ia |
their confidence in Mr.. Neill, display
ing the faith that was in them byl
keeping out of the market, and, con-
sequently, paying many millions OF
pounds sterling more for their cotton
than they probably would had they
bought sooner. The strangest change
which time has brought about is the
enhanced reputation of the Agricul-
tural Bureau. Formerly Neil was
awaited in order to confirm the bu-
reau; now the bureau is awaited to
confirm Neill. 1t is a very interest
ing phase OF human nature.
That Mr, Neill made serious mis-
take in his calculations last year he
himself admits, for he says, in his re-
cent circular: II have felt that |
owed it to those who were misled by
my error last year that my investiga- I
ion of this crop should be more
thorough than ever before" This
7ery error, however, has induced
him, as he himself states, to make
unusual efforts to avoid being misled
his year. Infallibility never has a
'een claimed by crop estimators, and
certainly not by Mr.. Neill; but the /,
act remains that the last named
Gentleman has been very fortunate q
Turing a long series of years in pre- Il
letting at very early date in the I
eason the approximate yield. 1t is, !,
therefore,, more logical to expect :
hat he will be remarkably near the L
orrect total this year, particularly e
hen common prudence would die :
ite unusual exertions on his part.
IAN to expect that he will again be
realty in error. 1t should also be
emembered that last year trade SEN
ment on this side of the Atlantic
as unanimously against him, where c
this year the trade sentiment as \
ell as the actual statistics eorrobo-
lie his views. I
Here, then, We have a reasonable I.
respect of an American crop not n
uch, il any, above $500, 900 bales. :
lth probable consumption of o
merlcan estimated by Mr.. Ellison. b
G great English authority, first at
!, 5S0,0O0, and still more recently q
100000 bales. With these = :.
lures OF prospective supply and q
msnd befo-e us, it is not difiicultl