The times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1897-1901, 1900-06-04

| tracks brings to light the solution OF many
problems which have been puzzling the
| followers of the sport, but, unfortunately,
the solution is too often only the door to
another problem. This is somewhat OF a
| paradox, but none the less true.
1t has been noted that there has been
| steady decrease in the number Of winning
! first favorites for the past two years, and
| that this has been Offset, so far as the gain
or loss to the punter is concerned by a
steady increase in the odds laid against
first choices. In this way while winning
| a small number of bets, the punter has
actually been in position to make more
money on given hundred or more trans
actions. The why and wherefore Of the
| decrease in winning favorites is one OF
the racing problems of the day, and is
| laid to various causes.
One of these is the barrier. Many we'll
| informed men claim that the use OF the
| barrier has, to a large extent, destroyed
form. That is to say, If good horse
breaks flat-footed, and poorer horse
| happens to be moving when the barrier
| is raised, the poorer horse will possibly
| win, where, under the old system OF start
| ing. the good horse would have been ma
| neuvred by his good jockey and obtained a
| more even break.
AS an endorsement of this view is point
| ed out the almost total elimination of the
| old-time large bettor, such as NJ Dryer,
| and Grammar, the only one remaining be-
| ing Pittsburg Phil, on a greatly reduced
and more conservative basis. L'Homme-
dieu and others may perhaps be entitled
| to some consideration from the more mod
ern standpoint, but the day of the man
who will place $4,000 in the ring to win
81 .00O as NJ. Dwyer did land lost the beD
| is past and gone. The barrier is scarcely
| to be taken as the reason for the change
by unbiased thinkers, although it may
have something to do with it, but during
the first year of its use little or no change
in the percentage OF winning favorites was
| noticed, and it should surely have been
more strongly demonstrated then, rather
than now, when the horses and boys are
| more or less accustomed to its use.
Whatever the cause of the phenomena,
| the trouble appears to be that While two
year-olds in minor -year-old events.
and selling platers in selling races, a.e
running fairly true to FORM notwithstand-
| ing the barrier and its supposedly deter
rent qualities, in the stake races horses are
not doing so to the same extent, and the
old practice Of playing the favorite in stake
races to win, to the utter exclusion of all
other races, is today pretty sure avenue
to the goal Of failure.
In years gone by 1t was the maxim OF
most turf veterans to let the two-year-oId
races severely alone. The argument was
they were lot OF rattleheaded youngest RS,
liable to do all kinds of things, and until
they were out of their swaddling clothes
and became staid and correct members Of
equine society should mot receive the con-
sideration which precedes monetary specu
lation and risk. As matter OF fact, for
the past six years or. SO the running OF
two-year-olds has been most exemplary.
In 1894, OF the twenty-five races scheduled
for two-year-olds at Morris Park, twelve ia
vorites won and ten lost, or 81 per cent,
and in 1894 at the same track twelve wen
and twenty lost, or about IS per cent. the
intervening years following along that lire
to 1899. when in eighteen two-year-old
races at that track nine favorites won and
nine lost, or so per cent, and this spring,
1900. nine won and sixteen lost In the
twenty-five races or 36 per cent. 1t must
also be remembered that these favor.tes
are generally at very coed odds. In fact,
anyone who will take the trouble to look
up two-year-old statistics will be surpris d
at the consistency shown. In one case (the
writer quotes from memory Despera6o
Gold Link and another horse first, sec
ond and third in three races, so that each
horse in turn was first. second, and third.
The failure of the favorites to connect
is apparently to be found In the stake
races, as will be seen by the following re-
sumo of Morris Park running. The Juven-
lie. the faverite lost and Tommy Atkins
at 81 won. The Metropolitan the favorite
won. The Larchmont the favorite lost
nd OIL 10
the favorite won. The Bouquet the favor
lite lost and Educate 81 won. The ST.
Nicholas the favorite lost and Gov. Griggs
6-1 won. The Harlem the favorite was
first at the finish. The Crotona the favor
lite, Vulcain, was beaten by Mark Cheek
at IL The Fashion favorite from the
Pepper stable lost to Anecdote 81. The
Withers favorite was beaten by Kilmar-
mock at Al. In the New York Steeple-
chase the favorite ran dead heat with an
ST. shot. The Baychester was won by the
favorite, 1idrim. In the New Rochelle
Survivor at Al beat the favorite. Bonni-
bert won the Laureate and was favorite.
The Knickerbocker favorite was beaten by
Lakeland at Al. The Van Nest was won
by Native, who at Al beat the TO favorite,
First Whip Belle of Lexington at ST.
spreadeagled the favorite Survivor in the
Claremont. Bonnibert carried the Ma
tional Stallion to the fayorte credit. On
eek Queen beat the favorite, Indian Fairy,
In the Ladies' The International Steeple-
chase was won by Van Ship at 81. defeat
ing the favorite. Missionary at Al made
the favorite take a back seat in the Pecan
tico, and Tulane did the same trick in
the Amateur Cup. Sweet Lavender at Al
won from the favorite in the Gaiety Vul-
cain was favorte and won the Van Cort-
land, and the Eclipse and the Belmont
found the favorite beaten in both events
Thus in the twenty-six leading stake races
of the meeting only seven favOrites won
or not quite 81 per cent Truly, here is
food for reflection.
In 1899 the favorite won the Juvenile.
Metropolitan, New York Steeplechase. st.
Nicholas, Withers. Baychester, Laureate,
Knickerbocker, Pocantico. Amateur Cup,
Gaiety, Van Cortland. and Belmont. This
was thirteen winning favOrites, or As per
cent in the twenty seven more import
ant stakes. Going back to 1894 it will be
found that in the twenty-four leading
stakes thirteen won, or "a per cent, and
that in 1893 fourteen favorites won in :hir-
ty-one stakes, or As per cent. These were
the halcyon days Of favorite players, when
Morris Park totaled winning favortes in
1892 of As per cent, in 1893 of 4s per cent,
and In 1894 Of 40 per cent, the total aver
age of these three years at all Jockey
Club meetings being. 1892. As per cent;
1893, AZ per cent, and 1894, 90 per cent.
In 1893 we had two year-old flyers such
as Dolly Warden, Miss Galop, Declare, and
Halton; in 1894, Walter, Butterflies, APP
plause, Harry Reed, and Connoiseur, but
how much did they excel Bonnibert, IT.
rltable Bedeck Tommy Atkins. and Sweet