Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1900-01-27
Clouds on the HORIZON at the End
Of the Century.
CAREFUL REVIEW OF TIE SITUATION
War Feeling in England and the
- New German Policy.
MANY SOURCES OF DANGER

the English newspapers as to whether the
twentieth century has already begun, or
will not begin till the 1st of January next.
Though there are many active and resolute
combatants on both sides. the balance of
argument, as well as of numbers, seems to
be with those who maintain the latter view.
Thus one is justified in treating this year
as that with which the nineteenth century
ends, and taking the occasion to consider
what are the sentiments and conditions
that surround the expiring months of the
century. These are certainly very different
from those which would have been pre-
dtcted forty years ago. England, and, to a
large extent, Europe generally, was then
rejoicing in, or, at any rate, largely moved
by, the hope that an era of general peace
and friendly feeling was approaching, when
wars would almost have been passed off
the horizon. and a sense of the common
interest which all nations have in the
prevalence of good will and the develop
ment of commerce would have assured the
continuance of friendly relations.
Disrelled Their Hopes.
This hopeful view, though it was felt to
be endangered by the existence of the Ma
poleonic empire in France, may be said to
have lasted till the war of A. D. 1866 had
shown that the risk of conflict between
Austria and Russia might at any moment
become acute. That war did not in itself
promise further disturbance. On the, con-
trary. the triumph of the principle of ma
tionality in Germany and the establishment
OF strong power in central Europe, were
by many observers regarded guarantee
OF peace. 1t was the great Franco-German
war of 1870 that dspelled the sanguine an
tcipationS of the optimistSS and since then
the constant growth of huge ornaments in
the four greatest states of continental Eu-
rope has been source of increasing alarm.
During the last twenty-seven years we
have had repeated panics, threatening the
outbreak of strife either between France
and Germany, or between Austria and Rus
STA, or between France and England or be-
tween England and Russia, with the prob
ability that any strife between any two of
these powers would involve the rest as
well as Italy also.
Clouds on the Horizon.
At this moment the horizon, if not actu-
ally renacing, is yet heavily clouded.
France is, indeed, believed to be in a tran
quill mood, and to have given a hostage to
peace in her coming exhibition, which every
one desires to make success, not only for
the credit of the nation, but in respect of
the material benefits expected from it. Yet
we saw. six months ago, how unstable is
the political equilibrium in France and how
uncertain the footing of the present pacific
ministry. Russia has also a strong eco
nomic motive for peace. She needs money
to complete the gigantic Trans-Siberian
railway on which she is engaged; and she
may well feel that no gain to be drawn
from the embarrassments of a rival would
compensate for the loss involved in the in
terruption of that enterprise, which must
immensely sire CITIZEN her hold on her pos
sessions in the furthest Orient, and her in
fuence, already great, over China. There
is, moreover great reason to believe that
the young car adheres to the humanita
rian ideas which prompted him to the con-
voking of the Hague conference. DisQuiet-
ing rumors, however, sometimes reach us
from the borders of AfghaniStan, where
Russia might, were she unfortunately
advised, stir up trouble. There is always a
restless military party at work in the huge
army she keeps on foot, and it needs all
the force of a tenacious monarch to keep it
in check.
War Feeling in England.
AS regards England. apart altogether
from the need she feels in the prosecution
of the present war, one serious change has
come over her spirit She finds, or thinks
she finds her army not adequate to the
great and growing needs of her empire
Hitherto she has been content to maintain
a regular force very small in proportion to
the vast citizen armies of the four conti-
mental powers, and has rejoiced to think
CONSUMPTION needless. She has, in fact,
lied upon her fleet, having had since the
-Crimean war none but savage or semi-civ-
iliZed enemies to meet in the field whether
in India or somewhere on the verge of her
scattered colonies.
Even where the colonies are conterminous
with the territories of European civilized
power as she is conterminous with France
in Indo-China and West Africa, and with
has been able to trust to the strength of
her fleet, since it would have to be by sea
only that French or German troops could
reach Africa or the orient, and the British
fleet Is, of course, supreme on the ocean.
Now. however, voices begin to be raised
demanding large increase in the British
army-an increase which, many fear,
must involve some kind of conservation
though probably in milder form than
that which France or Germany employs
1t is still too soon to say whether this cur
rent of feeling will prevail, for something
will depend on the course which the pres
ent war takes But it needs mention as a
new and ominous phenomenon in English
policy, and one pretty sure to be largely
debated during the year on which we are
entering.
Germany's New Policy.
Germany. like England, desires to re-
main at peace with her neighbors. But
Germany, like England, is embarking on
new policy. and policy which may di-
minish one of the motives she has hitherto
had for remaining at peace. Her govern
ment is bent on largely Strengthening her
navy; and the project, whether or not it
will ultimately be carried out on the great
scale which the emperor is believed to de-
sire, will certainly go on. The growing
prosperity Of her trade enables her, with
out too severe an effort to crafty what is,
in the present state of the world and with
her colonial predictions, a natural ambi-
ton. Thus matters relating to war bulk
more largely than ever in the thoughts of
two of the European countries which have
the strongest reasons for peace and which
have been foremost In all the arts of COM
merce and industry.
Sources of Danger.
Among possible sources Of danger one
must not forget to mention the state of the
European dominions of Turkey. Macedonia
is powder magazine, from which the eff
forts of the Russian and Austrian govern
ments have. for the last few years, sue
ceeded In keeping all matches at dis
lance. Nevertheless the powder is there
and spark might ignite it. There is a
party in Bulgaria anxious to rouse an in
surrection in Macedonia, and it need not
be said that the detestable Turkish admin
istration always furnishes ample grounds
for insurrection. In these Macedonian prov
inces the Servian and Bulgarian elements
are bitterly hostile, SO that any rising