New-York tribune., 1900-03-20
THE GREAT COTTON YEAR.

about the quantity of cotton remaining on plan
tations, the area to be planted for the coming
year and the probable price at the opening or
the next season. there seems to be not quite
enough attention paid to the question what has
become of the cotton already in sight MT.
Ellsons report for March l shows that takings
by European spinners have been 2OS,OOo Daies
less than last year. and his account of stocks in
the hands of spinners shows 100000 bales less
than a year ago, but $4,000 bales more than
they held on October l. That consumption has
slightly declined, to $50 900 bales weekly,
against 162, 900 last year, is not by any means
surprising in view of the great increase In cost
of goods Neither In this nor in any other coun-
try can it be expected that many goods will
be sold at prices now current as were sold to
the same consumers when prices were more
than 40 per cent lower.
There has come into sight from the crop of
1899 only 7.SS6,793 bales but what has become
Of them? One little item is of interest The ex-
ports of cotton to Japan in six months have
been 212S42 bales, larger than In any previous
full year, and also larger than in all the years
put together prior to 1898 The demand from
that quarter will undoubtedly be permanent
and will increase, but it is not in the highest
degree encouraging TO Americans, because II
means the successful establishment of cotton
mills in that country, with American machinery,
but with cheap japanese labor, which will IN
future compete for the Asiat1c trade. Both
British and American producers will in time
find that manufacture in Japan and China
affects the demand for Anglo-Saxon products,
as the manufacture in India has done for years
past OF the American cotton exported in six
months ending with February 3.S47 ,263 bales
went to Great Britain and the Continent less
than 100000 bales going TO Canada and all
other countries except Japan.
Mr. Elson's statement shows that 100000
bales of 500 pounds each have been added TO
European mill stocks and most OF it has been
American, no doubt. The takings of spinners
have been 3,614,0OO actual bales, against ,S2o,-
600 estimated by him for the full year, of
which 6345 900 were American The European
commercial stocks of American were on March
only 1721 900 bales, making with the mill
stocks 2556OOO. A little over four-ffths of the
European consumption is Of American cotton,
or of the 159 600 weekly now estimated by Mr.
Ellison about 12S,00O bales, so that Europe
practically had on hand about twenty weeks
supply Of American cotton on March 1. More
over as half the quantity exported to Europe
in February would exceed by $4,000 bales the
estimated consumption of American in two
weeks of March, and yet commercial stocks of
those two weeks, it seems probable that mill
stocks Of American We're greatly increased, ap-
parently over 100000 bales But if Europe has
on hand enough for fully twenty-one weeks
consumption of American cotton, within
three weeks of enough for the crop year, 1t is
obvious that anything approaching exhaustion
Of that supply would cause high prices to be
maintained
In this country the quantity taken by spin
ners is known through reports Of 1.-The Financial
Chronicle" and was 1,96S,4S bales to Friday
night. Last years consumption of cotton by
Northern mills was Al ,634 bales weekly, and
while there has been much increase at the
South probably the increase at the North, TAX
ing the months together, has not been great.
Thus the Northern mills have taken enough for
forty four weeks consumption at last years
rate, and they held at the start 425.S57 bales.
making over ifty-three and half weeks sup
ply for twenty eight weeks consumption thus
far They would appear to have twenty-five
and a half weeks supply ON hand, less any in
crease in consumption over that of last year,
and there remain besides the commercial stocks
in this country /, ,295 466 bales on Friday night
which would supply European deficiencies, with
over 100000 bales to spare. Here, abroad,
some stock must be carried over, but in 1897
American commercial stocks down to less
than 137.OOO bales and mill stocks to less than
$4,000 bales, and yet the price was over two
cents lower than 1t is now
These data indicate that there Is no great
danger of a cotton famine, though American
holders have the opportunity to make foreign
consumers pay good prices for all they want
They have been doing with unusual success
for some months. the actual value of the guam
tity exported during the crop year to date being
as great as 1t was year ago, though the guam
tlty has been 1.6S4,000 bales smaller There is
still large quantity of cotton to be moved, as
the continuance of receipts indicates. and while
estimates of that quantity may differ widely. it
IS evident that the time is at hand when
foreign as we'll as domestic consumers will feel
that they can safely refuse TO pay extreme
prices. But while it lasts the opportunity is
rare one for the producers OF this country. and
It will undoubtedly encourage them TO a ma
terial increase OF acreage for the next crop