The Scranton tribune. [volume] (Scranton, Pa.) 1891-1910, 1900-06-29


Curate measure of the extent
to which this seasons production will
be curtailed as the result of the pro-
tracted drought in the northwest. At
the high level reached this week, the
July option showed an advance of 22
cents per bushel over the figure of
June 2, when the damage reports be-
gan to come in. on the basis of the
Agriculture Bureau estimates for June
1 the indicated yield was 341,00O,0O0
bushels for winter wheat and 27S,000,-
600 bushels for spring wheat a total
of 5000 900 bushels. 1t is calculated
by the experts whose authority is high
est in the trade that the injury sus-
tained since the first of the month will
reduce the spring crop by 90,000,000
bushels. The condition of the winter
crop has also been lowered somewhat
and a liberal estimate would place
the amount destroyed for the whole
harvest at about 1O0,0OO0OO bushels.
This, however, as may easily be seen,
Is by no means commensurate with the
advance which has occurred in market
prices. The value Of the crop now ex-
pected, at SS cents a bushel, exceeds
by 4S,000000 the value of the much
larger crop indicated on June 1 at &C
cents a bushel. Here, then, is one
direct proof that the rise in the mar
ket has been out of all proportion to
the damage done, even accepting the
very highest estimates regarding the
damage.
The above comparison brings out
what is the most important point to
notice that on the strength Of the data
by which the speculation is governed,
the recent rise in prices has been eX-
| cessive. This conclusion is further
| strengthened by applying the same
process of calculation TO a comparison
with the wheat position of a year ago.
| The present yield in prospect is some
| 50,00O000 bushels below what it was
| then, yet with a difference of IA cents
| in the price the speculative value of
this years harvest is $35 900, 900 greater.
| Undoubtedly there are other factors
1 now which tend toward higher level
| for the market than in June, 1899.
| Europe is certain to have a smaller
production while its supplies of old
| wheat are about the same, and the in
crease in our own commercial supply
Is more than offset by the decreased
| invisible stocks in farmers hands.
| Then again considerable allowance
must be made for the Chinese troubles,
in the knowledge that any suggestion
of a foreign war has in the American
grain market. But these supplemental
influences, whether individual or collec-
tive can by no means be said to coun-
terbalance the striking discrepancy
between the rise in prices and the low
ering of our production estimates.
1t should be observed that the part
of the crop involved in the drought
misfortune is by no means as large as
the widespread discussion and stil
about the subject may have led the
outsider to believe. Tha damage has
been confined almost entirely to the
states of North Dakota, South Dakota
and Minnesota, the Canadian province
of Manitoba, which has also suffered
not being necessary to consider. lr
1899 these three states produced 49,.
10000 bushels, or 63 per cent. of the
actual yield of spring wheat. But in
cluding the winter crop it represented
only 20 per cent. of the cOuntry's tota
production. Assuming that even IN,
most pessimistic forecasts Will com,
true and that the damaged area in tn
half last years total, the prospect Il
certainly not alarming so far as tn
country at large is concerned.