New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1900-10-07
financial.
The Financial World.

bank statement appeared Half the surplus -
serve. as reported the previous week had beer
swept away The loss was nearly S7OO0OO0-
and the reserve now stands at only S625OO0C
above the % per cent legal line. Last year. We
were worse on. the surplus being less than
million This gave us money rates then. rang
ing from 10 to 30 per cent. In the week endina
October 1st the average rate on call was 4
per cent There was cutlery about con
spiracy among the banks to squeeze the Street
The high rates brought some gold from tia
other side and the bankers contracted loans.
Between the two. the morey market tempo
rarily eased of: but the stock market joIted
downward. till II finally dropped into the De-
cember smash. There was trouble about money
all the time
We might perhaps. be justified IN looking for
a repetition OF this experience IL IL were not
that at this time last year the Boer war was
every week disOrganlzing more and more the
foreign markets through the repeated British
reverses. This Reorganization had the worst
possible effect on our market. and was probably
the most potent factor in bringing on the De-
cember collapse. There is nothing Ike that now
On the contrary we are looking 10 the resump-
ton OF mining In South Africa. As for tbs
China business. it has petered out-resolved T.
self into bombardment Of dispatches between
the State Departments OF the various countries
concerned. That IS where it viii end. Condi-
tons therefore, not the same this year
they were last year; but they are enough alike
20 assure that higher rates for money VIII
prevail than have hitherto ruled until the crop
movement is over. This is doUbly certain il bun
speculation on the election outlook forces Up
the stock market. We are. in fact seemingly
confronted with the alternative Of higher prices
for money or lower prices for stocks.
We shall draw money from the other side In
the close state they are in there the depletion
will raise their interest rates and naturally
cause Europe to be counted out as help %
bulling our market. Europe will be a seller
rather than a buyer. and this will have 70 be
reckoned with in estimating how far bull
movement can be carried here. based on Presi-
Dental probabilities
The market has been rising during the week.
on buying by number Of operators who believe
that Bryan will be defeated Some OF these be-
lieve this more strongly than others and have
been buying more boldly in consequence. VIM
the parties are. is pretty we'll known in the
Street 1t is reported. and is probably true. that
what may be called the Gates contingent have
staked heavily on Bryan's defeat. So convinced
have they become Of this. and they are mainly
Western men, that they have loaded up largely
with the steel stocks and certain q the leading
railroad stocks. such Union Pacific. Balti-
more & Ohio Burlington. and one or two
others. Mr. Keene is reported 70 be less positive
on the outlook. He believes that the prepondsr-
ance Of evidence is in favor of Mckinley, bar
yet sees enough on the other side to make him
cautious; remembering. also. what a terrible
smash there inevitably would he in the market
If Bryan were elected.
There does not seem to he much doing on the
bull side by the big moneyed institutions; and
in the banking houses where usually learns
the drift of things, there is still very evident
tn
question is felt rather keenly there as well as
the political 1t may he said. therefore, that
the market is being bulled at present by ths
more daring spirits Of the speculative world
They take bigger chances than the others, but
turn quicker if the situation looks like changing
Assuming at this time that Bryan viii be a.
feated. and conceding that money rates must
for a time rule much higher than their summer
average it seems safe 10 buy on all weak spots,
the leading railroad stocks. Among the grang-
ers. Burlington appears the most favored, as
having the larger possibilities for future adj
vance 1t has good crops in its territory this
year and is bound TO make big earnings; while
there is always the speculative lever to work
with of future refunding operations Atchison
and Union Pacific stand foremost among the
transcontinentals We have it on the best au'
thority that II the election goes right, Union
Pacific common will sell up to 40 This comes
from authority which has never yet named
future price for a stock or bond which did not
turn out to be we'll below the figures il finally
attained From other sources. one can get pre-
dictions OF prices for Union Pacific far and away
above the figure named; but 40 is good enough
now
Atchison preferred, as paying per cent and
showing the large surplus it does over this divi'
dend and available for the common stock, is SELF
ing very low. The Northern Pacifcs ratheI
out of favor because Of the serious crop dam'
age In the company's territory. The stock rosa
with the rest of the market the past week. but
this was doubtless because a large short inter-
est had been made in 1t.
The trunk line stocks have been strong NeV4
York Central and Pennsylvania can always b
depended upon for a couple of points When
the general market is strong; but the real specu'
lative stock in this group is Baltimore s Ohio
The common and preferred alike are favoritss
Since the great union Of proprietary interests
in the trunk lines, much OF the 3. & o. stock
has gone permanently into strong boxes. thai
there is not great deal OF il TO handle in ths
market II is therefore comparatively easy q
make it respond quickly TO the large earnings
the company Is making; and it may be reckonet
that whenever the market generally Is aetfv4
the B. & o. stocks will move as briskIy as any
In the fractions. friends of Manhattan srt
predicting higher prices for the stock Ths1
talk of par more for it after election.
The Gates people have been buyers both Of
Steel and Wire and the Federal Steel stocks
People connected with the latter company ara
also advising the purchase OF the stOck-sous'
thing they have not done for a long while. Ths
reason for their action is that the earnings q
the companies are picking up rapidly Ths