The Savannah morning news., 1900-06-20
GUESS TOO HIGH ON CENSUS.
SUPERVISOR BLIN SAYS MANY PEO-
PLE WILL BE DISAPPOINTED.

FOR some Reason. He Says. Nearly
All Fix Upon W hat Are sure to &c
OVerestimatcs--If Reasoned Gut b.
the Usual Percentage of Increase
the Guesses Would Not BE so High
About 81. 500 Is the Estimate Fig
ured out From Basis Furnishcd
by One of the New York Papers
Capt. Blum Guarantees That Every
House in the city VIII lie visited
by Enumerators.
Two persons notified Capt. Henry Blnn'
Jr, yesterday that they believed they had
not been included in the reports Of me
census enumerators. Capt Blum inferred
from this that either the people of sa-
vannah are Indifferent to the census and
its correctness or that the enumeIators
are doing their work well.
Capt. Blum believes it is the later. He
is inclined 10 think that the enumerators
have been very successful in gathering IN
names and that there are very few, COM
parauvely that have been omitted
/ There is one thing | guarantee SAID
Capt Blum. That is that when the cen
sus has been completed there will have
been no house in the city left out. Every
one win have been visited. ! cannot say
that every name will have been secured
for I will have no perfect check method
10 insure that, but the system of check
ing l have decided upon will leave it an
impossibllty for any house to have been
left cut.
"The people Of Savannah have got their
IDEAS pitched 100 high on the result Of
the census. They have not reasoned the
thing out carefully, and there are bound
to be a great many disappointed when the
result is made known. Nearly all of those
who make gucsses as to what population
the census will show go some thousands
beyond what it is likely 10 prove.
The last census gave Savannah pop
uation Of something like 1900. Now il
is not reasonable to believe that. in ten
years, there has been an increase Of D. 600
though many believe that number viii be
shown. That would represent an in
crease of nearly 30 per cent. whereas a
careful estimate of the probable increase
in the population of the United States
made by one of the New York papers
names il as about 26 per cent tn esti-
mate declares that the increase will show
up greater in the largest cities, so that,
o
cent. increase may be expected. This
would make the population show up at
about 81, Coo
Il do not give that as my estimate.
As supervisor of the census. | do not be-
lieve l should give an estimate. I give
the figures merely to show that many cit
liens are expecting too much. Why l
have heard some make guesses as high as
5000, but those who make them had
never stopped to consider If they would
reason out the percentage of increase
chat might reasonably be expected they
would understand that their estimates are
excessive.
Citizens of most places are prone to
make this error. Atlanta may be taken
as a striking instance. For two or three
years the people Of Atlanta have been
claiming as many as 10000. There has
been a decided growth there, but the es-
innate given by a special census agent
showed the population to be about 5000.
From this ii may be seen that guesses
fly too high.
1T should be remembered that many
of the people whose names appear in the
city directory. do not live in the city al
all The enumeration will include them
as residents of the places where their
homes are. A discrepancy between the
city directory and the government census
may be found right there
Capt. BUNS words may be taken as
practical assurance that Savannah's pop
ulation is not going to be what many have
hoped the census would show. ConserVa-
tive people agree with him that the usual
estimate is too high. Guesses are being
made as to the result. and it will be with
no little interest that the official an
nouncement will be awaited.
No time is set for the sending in of
returns, Capt. Bun may keep them I'M
til he is assured of their correctness. He
will work on them as rapidly as possible.
and will use every effort to insure the
city being given credit for every inhabit-
ant to which il is entitled.