The sun., 1900-10-31
The Prospects Of the City OF Ne"
York.

The falling on In the number OF votes
nolled IN the old city of New York, aS com
nared with the registration. At the Preei-
dental election Of 1899. at tho exciting eIe'-
ton for Mayor in 1897 and after the spirited
canvass for Governor in 1895. ranged ne
tween and per cent Taking the average
OF this loss the poll for this year can be
estimated pretty closely at abo't s+o'"W.
OF the total number OF votes polled in 1895
all except about 514 per cent. were cast
for Mr.. MCKINLEY and Mr., BRYAN. Allow
ing the same percentage OF outside votes
those cast for the same candidates TINS
year will aggregate about $500 votes
or the total Of c9loS3 received by
McKrSIEY and BRYAN Jointly In 1895,
MCKINLEY received about 53is per cent ana
BRYAN about 46ig per cent To preserve
the same ratios this year MCKINLEY would
have to receive about l74O00 votes, or
about 1900 more than he got In lSa6'
and BRYAN about l52tOO or about H.Om
more than he had in 1895 II this should
prevan actually MCkrNLBys majority
would he about 2?,Ooo As against 2O.N35
in 1890
In ,sqs the vote Of VAN WICK for Governor
was I73.4g to ll2 500 for ROOSEVELT. II
Is not reasonable 10 expect that lammany
can do better this year for BRYAN, with
the greater registrations but give BRYAN
l75OOO That leaves ISL 600 for MCKINLEY
and makes BRYAN's majority over him
only 24,OOO. 1ammany politicians in the
calculations they are making for them
selves. not for publication. estimate the
Bryan majority at between 10000 and
5000. and no greater ia probable. That
IS. they transfer to BRYAN in 1900 the
Mckinley percentage in 1900 and increase
his pou nv nearly forty thousand votes and
diminish McKINLEy's by about f1ve thou
sand votes. That assuredly is as far IA
the most sangune Tammany calculator can
60 reasonably II assumes that the whole
change in the four years Is from MCkTN-
LEY 10 BRYAN. though surface indica-
tions certainly suggest no such drift. So
far as the Greater New York Is concerned.
this majority in the old city is likely 70
he reduced greatly by Mckinley ma
jority in Brooklyn, 50 that the heavy
Republican majority in the outside State
will remain nearly intact.
So small n Bryan majority as Tammany
counts on, however. may easily be swept
away altogether and 1t will be swept away
n all the gold votes are polled, and that
very few Of them will be lost can be as
sumed The great falling Off in the num-
her Of votes IA compared With the regis
tration is always one Of the mysteries
Of politics The usual supposition, how
ever. that It IL most marked in the districts
whore the population ia presumably most
intelligent is not justified by experience. II
is most noticeable in other election districts.
more especially when such an issue az
that Of lsae and now Is to be decided In
telligent men who take the trouble to regis
ter may be relied on to vote almost in
variably.
The estimates and comparisons We have
made indicate that II is altogether within
the range Of possibility, probability even,
that Mr.. MCKINLEY will again carry the
boroughs which include the old city Of
New York. They give absolute assurance
that he will carry the State IA a whole by
great majority.