The Salt Lake herald. [volume] (Salt Lake City [Utah]) 1870-1909, 1900-05-14
Spencer Wilkinson Allows
Beers Three Months More.
VIEW OF LONDON CRITIC
ESTIMATES SIZE OF ROBERTS
OVERWHELMING FORCE.
He Figures That the Vast Resources
of Great Britain VIII Require Ger
tainly Not More Than Five
Months to Crush Little Ar
mics Fighting For Liberty.

New York, May 13.-Speneer Wilkin-
son of London. in an article on "How
Long Will the Hoer War Last?" which
will appear in the forthcoming edition
Of Leslie's Weekly, says:
I'm the summer of 1861 there were
probably few men in or out of the
United States who foresaw that the
war of the secession would last for
four years; if any held that opinion,
he gained little credence for it at that
time. In June, 1866, only those who
had SPECIAL opportunities of knowing
the con 'on of the Prussian army
foresaw nat the Austrian empire
would be suing for peace within six
weeks Of the outbreak Of the then pend
ing hOstilities. The duration of a war
depends partly upon the nature of the
country in which it is Waged, but more
upon relative resources of the two bel
ligerents and the energy and deter
minatiOn which each of them throws
into it. The last named is probably the
most important factor.
Il have, from the beginning, ex-
pressed that the Beers would make a
desperate fight. According to their
view, the cause for which they are in
arms is that Of their independence or
their national existence, and Tor this
cause every community will fight
harder and longer than for any other.
Great Britain is fighting for the
unity of her empire and for the moral
existence Of the British nation. 1t is a
cause which appeals less directly TO
the intelligence of the masses than that
of independence, and the disproportion
between the resources OF the British
and those of the Beers is so great that
neither the BOer government nor the
constituencies by whose tone it is ac-
cusJOmed to guide itself, are able to
realize the Importance of extreme ex3
ertions to bring the war speedily to an
end.
Politicians Are Asleep.
"In the present case the British gov
eminent, the group Of politicians in
charge of the nations affairs, is not
yet more than half awake, and if the
provision heretofore made for the con
duct of the war should prove insuffi4
Gent, there would be considerable de-
lay before fresh exertions by way of
preparation would produce visible re-
suit.
I hardly expect the resistance Of the
Boer armies in the field to be prolonged
for much more than three months, but
1 should not be surprised IL the effect
i've occupation of the whole country
required a further six months of con-
tinuOus effort
There are now under the command
OF Lord Roberts altogether 100, 900 men,
and even if the most liberal deductions
be made for casualties of all sorts, for
invalids, for garrisons left on the COM
munications, and for troops stationed
in the districts lately disaffected, and
If We allow that there may be in Natal
$4,000 10 supply field force of 10000,
there is still abundant material for
Lord Roberts to attack the Beers with
a force outnumbering their whole army.
On the lowest estimate of what the
British commander of Natal can do,
he must hold fast a respectable frac-
ton of the BOer forces. The remainder
cannot, without great danger, fight a
pitched battle against Lord Roberts,
for in that case his attack will GER
tainly envelOp them and involve them
in disaster.
May Harass British For Months.
AT the best they delay him and ha-
rass his communications. 1t is little
more than a months march from
Bloemfontein to Pretoria. The Beers,
by the various expedients open to them,
Of rear guard actions and of raids on
the communications may prolong this
time by d couple of months; but in the
process, even though they escape
crushing defeat, their army would be
used. After that there is nothing left
to them but guerrilla warfare, or the
attempt at a wholesale trek TO the
north.
This appears to me to be the normal
forecast, but have no personal knOwl-
edge, either Of the country or the peo-
pie, and there are many unknown ele-
ments which conceal various possibili-
ties which 1 cannot gauge. The whole
Of South Africa is inhabited by Kaffir
tribes, who far outnumber all the white
settlers. If the Kaffics were to join in
the fight on one side or the other, no
one can foresee what would happen. A
second set of possibilities lies in the
general course of the worlds affairs.
The longer the duration of the war, the
greater the scope for the occurrence of
unexpected events in some other quar-
ter OF the globe, which might modify
the whole situation"