The Seattle post-intelligencer. [volume] (Seattle, Wash. Terr. [Wash.]) 1888-1914, 1900-05-14
DURATION OF BOER WAR.
Spencer Wilkinson Says British VIII
Require Nine Months to Eject
Complete Occupation.

NEW YORK. May l3,-Spencer Wilkin-
son. of London, in an article on How
Long win the Boer War Last" which
will appear in the forthcoming edition of
Ieslie's Weekly, says:
In the summer of 1861 there were prob
ably few men in or out OF the Unitsa
States who foresaw that the war OF the
secession would last four years: If any
held that opinion he gained little ere
dence for IL at any time. In June, ls66,
only those who had special opportunities
Of knowing the condition OF the Prussian
army foresaw that the Austrian empire
would be suing for peace within six weeks
of the outbreak Of the then pending hos
tilities. The duration of a war depends
partly upon the nature OF the country in
which IL Is waged, but more upon the rel
ativs resources of the two oelligerents
and the energy and determination which
each Of them throws into IT, The last
named is probably the most important
factor. I have. from the beginning, ex-
pressed the belief that the Beers would
make a desperate fight. According TO
their view. the cause for which they are
in arms Is that Of their independence, or
their national existence. and for this
cause every community will hight harder
and longer than for any other.
Great Britain is lighting for the unity
OF her empire and for the moral existence
OF the British nation. 1t Is a cause
which appeals less directly 70 the intelli-
gence OF the masses than that OF inde-
pendence and the disproportion between
the resources Of the British and those Of
the Beers Is so great that neither the
Boer government nor the constituencies
by whose tone 1t IS accustomed to guide
itself are able to realize the importance
OF extreme exertions to bring the war
speedily TO an end.
''In the present case, the British gov
eminent, the group OF politicians in charge
Of the nations affairs. IS not yet more
than half awake. and x the provision
heretofore made FOR the conduct of the
war should prove insufficient, there would
f.a gifiEra HE delay before Trash
tons, by way Of preparation. would pro-
duce a visible result.
II hardly expect the resistance OF the
Boer armies in the field TO be prolonged
for much more than three months, but I
should not be surprised IL the effective
occupation Of the whole country required
a further six months OF eostinuous effort
There are now under the command OF
Lord Roberts altogether 10000 men. and
even IL the most liberal deductions be
made for casualties OF all sorts, for in
v8ltds. for garrfSons left on the commu-
nicati0ns and for the troops stationed in
the districts lately disaffected. and il we
allow that there may be. in Natal 40 zoo
10 supply a field force of 5000. there II
stil abundant material for lord Roberts
TO attack the Beers with force outnuru-
bering their whole army. On the lowest
estimate OF what the British commander
Of Natal can do. we must hOi1 fast a
respectable fraction OF the Boer forC es'
The remainder cannot. without great
danger. fight a pitched battle against
LoFd E0oertS. Tor, IN that case, his at
tack viii certainly envelope them and n
volve them IN disaster At the beSt Trey
can delay him and harass his coumunf-
cations. II Is little more than a month";
march from Bl0smfontein 20 Pretoria
The Beers, by the various expefieuts
open 20 them. Of rear guard actions and
of raids on tho communications. may nro-
long this time ny a couple ~ months
but In the process, even though thew es-
cape crushing defeat. their army would "a
reduced. After that there ia nothing Iaft
20 them bait guerilla warfare or tha AZ
tempt NJ q wholesale 'trek' 20 the north
''rhis appears 70 me 10 b. -he rsrn4al
forecast. but 7 have no personal kn0vI-
edge either ~ the country or the nao-fa
and there are many unknown aler,e-ta
whlch conceal various possibilities -biNb
I cannot gauge. The whole ~ $500
Africa Is inhabited Nv kafflr tribes. Who
far outnumlrar AL the white settlers ~
she kaf'ir-s were 20 toin IN th, awh. on
one side or the other. no one can r1~e4e,
What worli happen \ second set r.. 49,
-ibl'f'es tes IN the general course % tha
worlds afrairs- The longer the f,lratfor
90 t9e war The greater The SCOPE ~ the
occurrence ~ nravrE-tef events n sory,a
other s1aT'e- ~ IRE F'oAss. which might
ro rt fV -hs whole eitrra riF-