The farmer and mechanic. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 18??-19??, 1900-02-20
Feature of the Situation Apprehension Concerning the
Next gyptian Crop
(By Shepperson. manufacturers Record,

Uto bales. These port stocks and mill
reserves viii furnish the 300 600 bales
needed 10 make European consumption
as, lnnch as last season. If the Euro
pean mails DO not spin as much or more
cotton Khan last season. it viii be. I
think, only because of their inability to
get 1t. The effort 10 obtain tn. needed
supply may carry the price Of cotton
even considerably beyond present prices,
and this is q very strong feature Of the
outlook for cotton.
As price is regulated by supply and
demand. values can be attacked as
effectively by Understanding the de-
nland as by overestimating the supply.
l he campaign against cotton based on
too narrow a view of the legitimate de-
mand for it is likely to come to grief
sooner than the unfortunate campaign
based upon the excessive overestimate
OF the supply. y reaction from tOday'S
advance may occur at any time and be
a sharp one, for it must be remembered
that many operators in futures have
large profits. and the attempt to realize
them on large scale would likely cause
some decline. The reaction, however,
would probably be only temporary, be
cause the advance il cotton rests upon
the solid foundation Of a limited and
diminishing supply coincident with a
large and increasing demand.
For some tim" much apprehension has
existed respecting the next cotton crop
of Egypt III consequence of the extreme
~ low stage of water in the Nile, rs
Egypt is merely plain OF desert sand
and no crop can bt grown without irli
CATION. and plerty Of it. Within a few
months the price OF some grades Of
Egyptian cotton has nearly doubled.
Sir William +. ttaIStin. under secre-
tary Of state fer public works and head
of the irrigation department. pub
lished on January p, al official circular,
on the subject. After saying that the
record at Assoiian shows lower water
o. Tafauttrv 1J than recorded on that
date for any previous year, he states
that the great equatorial lakes and the
streams which supply the headwaters of
the Nile are unprecedentedly low, and
adds that 1t is certain. even should the
period Of annual rainfall in Abyssina
and the Soudln be advanced and an
early flood result that exceptional
scarcity of water must exist in Egypt
during the months OF April. May. June
and July The water available in the
river during this period must, undc- any
circumstances, be barely sufficient to
preserve the cotton crop, and will GER
tainly hot suffice for the irrigation OF
rice as we'll
Realizing that it is the most important
crop Of Egypt every effort VII be made
.hy Sir William GarStin to save the cot
ton crop by the sacrifice of the rice and
other crops
\ valued correspondent. who is not
only one Of the most intelligent gentle
men. but one Of the most prom nent mer-
chants n Egypt tand cotton grower As
Weln. writes me from Alexandra on
January oJth, as follows: The Nile IS
lower than il has ever been before and
there is not the slightest doubt that
the next crop will be very short owing
to the want OF water. Our irrigation
department, which cannot be too highly
praised. will do wonders. but. IN my
opinion, nothing will save the crop from
suffering greatly. Opinions differ about
the significance Of Sir William Garstin's
circular. which is being published all
over the country 50 that cultiyators
may judge FOR themselves and take their
measures accordinGly l must say.
reading between the Lines. l consider it
very black tdiscouragingl This IS ais"
the general opinion here. as IS proved
hy our market having advanced half
dollar today. 1t is very probable that
owing to the higher prices. an area even
larger tEan last year Will be planted
but it Will be absolutely Impossible for
it All to be vatered. Even last year,
with good Nile some outlying districts
suffered from want Of water.
The present Egyptian crop Will be
about 6.3OG. coo cantaTS. while Sir VIII
liam Garstin states that the crop OF
1SS9-9O. which was the last crop with
low Nile was only :'.2oG'DO cantars.
The exports from E-ypt this season Will
Ec about $50, 900 bales Of 100 pounds
but the next crop may easily he 2-po,0uo
to 800 COO bales less. As these bales
weigh about half as much again as
.Anl5Tica,r bales: the shortage III the
Egyptian crop may prove quite q serious
matter in the European calculations Of
next seasons supply.
New York. February 13.