Evening star., 1900-10-29
Effect Of the Big Political Meetings
in New York.
BRYAN'S LATEST Big BLOWOUT
Conservative Estimates All Con-
cede State to Mckinley.
INDEPENDENTS DISSATISFIED
Special From a Staff Correspondent.

political meetings do not necessarily mean
majorities at the polls the Bryan demon
stration in this city Saturday night might
shake the faith of many who cannot see
the possibility of Bryans election. The
| character of that demonstration and the
common expressions of sentiment or opin-
ion heard every day stand in direct con-
tradiction. Calm judgment might be readi-
| ly confused and placed in doubt by the
| manner in which the crowds went wild
over Bryan and by the comparison with
| other demonstrations that have been wit
| messed in New York
No one can mingle with the people here
day after day without becoming more and
| more impressed with the preponderance of
| expressed opinion that Mckinley will carry
| New York by a large majority, ana will
most surely be elected. man who eX-
| presses an opinion to the contrary is al
| most certain to find himself in an humiliat-
| Ing minority unless he is in purely demo-
| cratic assemblage. Even among democrats
| the man who expresses too strong con-
| hdence in this state has his judgment al
| most unconsciously discredited and is like
| ly to be marked as conspicuous.
| Hickey Says 1t in for Bryan.
Among democrats Joe Hickey is marked
| no longer because of the drink that has
carried his fame throughout the continent,
| but because of his unreserved insstance
| that Bryan will carry New York and is alb
| solutely certain of election. The democrats
| are not conscious Of the inference logically
| to be drawn, which is that if a man can
| become conspicuous in the Hoffman House
| lobby because of his confidence in demo-
| cratic success that confidence cannot be
common in the crowd
OF course, those officially connected with
| the national or the state committee are
| always expressing complete confidence and
| really seem to be sincerely hODefnl hut
| situated as they are the prospects Of their
| party would indeed be bad if they doubted
| its success.
| When one gets thoroughly used to hear
| ing almost nothing but Mckinley in comes
| Bryan and around him Surges a crowd so
! great that the eye cannot take it all in and
! SO demonstrative that to be within it's in
| fiuence is confusion worse confounded
| The contradiction is thrown full in your
| face. In all the great buildings, through
| all their multiplied stories. filled like a
hive OF bees buzzing with industry of such
! sort as it may be, there is not the thought
OF the election of anybody but Mckinley.
How 1t may be In the tenements and the
| dark places where nobody enters to look
for prophecy or political wisdom, no one
| can tell
Indications Are All Republican.
Unless there is an abnormal condition of
| which no surface sign can be found,
!sBryan cannot carry New York The great
enthusiasm with which he is greeted may
| be sign of Condition which is not I'M
| derstood and cannot be measured by the
political lead line. But all other things
| taken into consideration, the most reason
able deduction is that the people who are
| for Bryan, whether few many, are ex-
| cessive in their devotion to him, and this
renders the demonstrations about him
| emotional beyond what is usual at politi-
| cal meetings.
1t would be simply stupid to try to be-
| little the demonstration here Saturday
| night, yet ! would not accept it as a cri-
| terton by which to measure the vote Bryan
was just about big as that of the
| Roosevelt demonstration the night before
| and that of the Tammany- Bryan meeting
OF the 10th put into one, and, as for en-
| thusiasm, all the noise was made that
| human ingenuity could contrive. There is
| little to be learned from such a demon
| stration beyond the fact that Bryan's
| friends know how to be enthusiastic AS
| far as | can judge, the man who insists
| that Bryan can carry this state has little
| to base that conviction upon except blind
| faith, for experience discourages all pre-
| dictions based on noisy demonstrations
Stock Market n Good Guide.
| 1t would be a mistake to look upon the
! state of the stock market as merely.a re-
| fection of local sentiment There is no
possible doubt that the stock market is
affected by the stock markets Judgment
|
| other presidential campaign has the value
| of securities depended so much upon the
result and that the market has continued
| strong indicates the confidence that is felt
| in McKinley's election. This is neither a
sentiment nor local confidence, but is
| the final preponderant judgment of men
| throughout the country who have money
to invest.
The men who do business in Wall street
are in communication with the most alert
| and careful business men who have similar
interests In every city Of any consequence
In the United States. They are kept in
| formed as to all things that can influence
values, and the market goes up or down
according to the preponderance of opinion
| as to general conditions. The brokers in
| Wall street have reports from every state
| In the Union as to the prospects of the
presidential election, just as they have on
| the condition of the crops or anything
else. 1t matters little to them in this
business transactions what their opinion
is of what ought to be; it is what their
reports indicate to be true that influences
| their investments, and this to very large
extent certainly influences the bets on the
| election.
| Cannot Manipulate Whole Market
| While it is possible to manipulate a sin
| gle line of stocks, it is said by Wall street
experts to be practically impossible for any
! sort Of a combination to manipulate the
| whole market. There are two sides to
| deal and the profitable side is going to be
that in which the most people with money
|
| met by a counter move for profit. Wall
street believes that Mckinley is going to be
| elected. The reason they believe 1t is that
business men of their class all over the
country believe 1t, and this belief is based
on most careful inquiry, profit, and not SEN
| timent, being involved.
| If anything should cause a change of
| opinion the market would instantly fall off
| and 1t Is said that there would be regular
! slump, the bottom dropping out of every
| thing, II the opinion should prevail that
Bryan would be elected. Stock brokers are
| not gifted with second sight and the power
| of prophecy, but they have extended
sources Of information, and 1t is a matter
| of money to them to get the best and earii-
| est Information. If the market is not re-
| sponsive to a real condition, 1t is because
a majority of the people all over the coun-
| try with money to invest are fooled and
misinterpret the signs which they read
| Both the betting and the market in Wall
| street represent the prevailing Judgment of
investors throughout the country The
knowledge that this is not the reflection of
merely local prejudice Is what makes the
republicans so confident. and, as a rule, the
4 men who have money to bet on the cleo
ton in professional way prefer the index