The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1900-02-12


NEW YORK, Feb u-Monday and
Tuesday witnessed sharp advances in the
stock market: sharp enough in fact to
induce considerable realizing ON the fol-
lowing days. The advance, however, was
based upon a set Of conditions that are
still in force, and as these conditions are
exceptionally favorable to bull market.
it Is hardly likely that the big holders
will lose the opportunity of raising the
market to still higher level.
The two principal bull factors at pres
ent are easy money and large earnings
of both railroads and industrials. AS for
the money market, rates are easy and
likely to continue SO for some time to
come. With time money at 4Q41a per
cent, and first-class commercial paper
at similar rates, there is little reason
for concern about the money market.
year ago the advance in stocks was
checked by the phenomenal creation OF
new combinations which locked up large
sums of money and laid the basis for the
extreme stringency that followed later.
No such conditions exist this year. On
the cont airy, these funds have been
largely released and will be re-empioyed
for no such purposes, because the MAX
ing of huge new combines on such
scale will not be repeated in 1900. The
war in South Africa may eventually
cause some disturbance, but, so far, 1t
has little or no effect upon the money
market and its injurious influence upon
the stock market has been fully dis
counted British reverses would now
have little effect because Englandls res
olution and ability to carry the war to
a successful issue are fully understood.
An army Of over 100000 men is now To
South Africa, enough to more than over
come the advantages of Boer defenses,
and any future reverses will be only
temporary Even should Ladysmith
fall, it would not change the result, but
only delay the war and injure British
prestige.
Our own stock market therefore is not
likely to be seriously affected by British
reverses, though it is equally probable
that British success in two or three
battles would cause a sharp rise here.
The money market is likely to be favor
ably Influenced by the passage of the
new currency bill, which will be voted
upon next week. Its passage Is con-
fidently predicted. AS 1t permits g. desfr-
able expansion In bank currency 1t VIII
prove an acceptab BILE and sound measure;
a step forward in our system of national
finance, that has long been necessary
and which removes one of the most Sc
r10uS problems OIL ulStTuot d5diliol WHICH
we have contended.
Concerning earnings, the most impor-
tant and strongest basis of a good mar
ket, the evidence is all exceptionally
satisfactory. Railroad prosperity is SIM
ply remarkable. In the third week of
January sixty-eight roads earned 10 per
cent more than in 1899, which systems,
such as Pennsylvania, New York Gem
trail, the grangers, the Paciffcs and the
coaIers, all show handsome gains. and
there IS every reason for anticipating
their continuance, because the railroad
draws its income from many sources
and is least affected by local conditions;
consequently it possesses the advantage
of a. stable income to an exceptional de-
gree This increase In earning capacity
naturally affects the low-priced stocks,
especially such as have dividend pros
poets or are about to be put on divt-s
dend-paying basis. Considering that
American railroads have had the water
well squeezed out, and that ~the char
acter of management never stood higher,
there is the best of reasons for prefer
ring them over any other popular invest
ment
Another point in favor of the railroads
is that they are only beginning to feel
the benefit of better rates, in this re-
spect being behind general trade and the
industrials, which were the first to ben
eft. Activity in the latter has been re-.
sumed and has q good basis Of reason.
The iron and steel properties are max
ing remarkable profits, as confirmed by
reports recently issued by the leading
concerns. Already there is less discrimi-
nation against the best Industrial issues
than formerly. and some of these will
undoubtedly yield good profits to early
buyers, but both investors and specula-
tors will do we'll to deal cautiously In
this class of securities until they have
become seasoned.
The proba suggest an irregular
but strong market during the next few
weeks Every advance will Of course in
duce fresh realizing by those who bought
in the December panic and stimulate
fresh bear raids. These operations. how
ever, ought to prevent overbuying and
keep the market in a healthy condition.
1t is quite apparent that the big leaders
have adjusted many Of their differences
and are willing to permit, If not aid.
bull market. Now, that conditions are in
their favor, concert of action Is more
probable. Until the situation changes,
then, we can safely advise buying on
the sharp declines and selling on all good
rallies.