New-York tribune., 1900-08-21
FAMINE NOT IMMINENT.


demonstrating to his satisfaction that the
worlds production of wheat not keeping pace
with consumption and that within alarm
ingly short period gaunt starvation would per-
wade the earth. Now, just the worried look
is leaving faces, there comes another dis
auieting statement. A high in authority In
this country announces that must pay
dollar a bushel for wheat before the end of the
year, and points to the official estimate OF pro-
duction Endorsement of this rash prediction.
It is to be hoped that the American farmers
will not proceed to borrow money and store away
their wheat in expectation Of fancy prices
the strength Of this report, because there is
danger Of disappointment and loss in such ac-
tion. Present prices are we'll above the average
in recent years. and receipts at primary mar
kets, averaging a million bushels daily since
the month began, about double the figures OF
the two preceding years. show that producers
are marketing freely and apparently salts
fed with the outlook.
Wheat at a dollar means great deal. 1t has
not touched that price since the Letter specula-
ton collapsed in June, 1898. and the high prices
OF two years ago were mainly due to manipula-
ton. Every effort TO control all the available
wheat has resulted disastrously, for there
are too many farmers scattered over too great
a territory to make combination feasible. even
II there no unoccupied land for new farms.
Moreover. the improvement in machinery and
economy in methods of growing. besides the
great decline in cost of transportation make
wheat at 81 now about equivalent to the quota
tion Of 81 paid in this city on April %. 1877,
which has not since been equaled with the
aid Of attempted corners. The highest price
this year was 92 cents, June %. when tales
Of utter ruin in spring wheat States received
credence for day. Reaction came Immediately,
amounting to four cents the next week. and now
sales are readily made at less than so cents.
The Departments estimate OF condition on
August / made the spring wheat average 56.4
per cent, on which the Produce Exchange statis-
tician figured the yield at 18O 100000 bushels,
against crop of 250624266 bushels actually
harvested IN 1899. The yield OF winter wheat,
however is placed at 333 769O 900 bushels against
96.679574 last year, making a total Of 513 997,-
900 bushels, against 547. .303 $40 bushels in 1899.
Assuming that these figures are approximately
correct the decrease from the preceding crop is
only 33,306, $40 bushels, and there was no
thought of dollar wheat year ago. In fact,
76A cents paid on August 16, 1899. Further
more, the amount Of wheat actually exported,
together with a reasonable allowance for seed.
and consumption at the rate Of 467 bushels for
each inhabitant has demonstrated year after
year that the official estimates are much too
low. This Is not surprising. Information re-
garding the crop must be obtained mainly from
those who are interested in securing good prices,
and IT is to their advantage to keep figures OF
production low as long the market be
Influenced.
The last crop year ended with visible supply
of At 1872 900 bushels against 33, ,632, 900 July
1. 1890, showing that there had been an increase
OF 13,5300O0 bushels, notwithstanding the light
yield officially reported and in spite Of 1S6 090-
564 bushels exported. domestic consumption Of
800 100000 bushels, and 100000 bushels used
for seed. In other words, after using 621 1000
bushels Of wheat out of a crop OF 547 100000
there was increase in the visible supply and
the present free movement from the farms gives
assurance that reserves in farmers hands had
not decreased proportionately
The predicter Of dollar" wheat finds further
cause for high prices in per capita consump-
tion of nearer seven than six bushels" There
is no possible reason for expecting such a sud
den increase. During previous years the average
has been 4.67 bushels. and increased prosperity
does not mean 30 per cent more bread eaten.
On the contrary, the workingman even in hard
est times has to have about the usual amount
of the staff of life. and 1t is in the matter of
meat that he extends his menu when steady
employment at good wages permits luxuries.
All records indorse this common sense reason
ing and Americans have not relied on corn bread
to any great extent IN recent years. although
less prosperous foreigners are rapidly learning
to appreciate this cereal During the fiscal year
ending June 80 1900. exports Of corn were 209,-
348,273 bushels. exceeding the previous year by
85.259,1I9 bushels. This to a certain extent took
the place Of wheat, which was exported less
freely in consequence. and substitution of the
cheaper grain would be much greater If our ex-
porters demanded still higher prices for wheat
Looking the situation outside the United
States, the final conclusion is much less dis
heartening than might be gathered from the
gloomiest statements. although they naturally
make the deepest impression. Unquestionably,
there has been serious loss in India, and the
crop is now placed at only 1S25S2O0 bushels.
which is 42,9O4.0 900 bushels less than the aver
age for the preceding hve years This is prob
ably made UP by the crop in Argentina alone.
from which over 6O.OO0.O00 bushels have al
ready been exported Our northern neighbor has
had a bad season, and only half an average crop
is expected in Manitoba, but in the worlds mar
kets this is of no great Importance. dozen
States IN the Union raise more wheat than the
total loss in this Canadian province Russia
ranks next to the United States in quantity Of
wheat produced, and, while reports are as con-
Trajectory as our Cwn average Of estimates
indicates good crop Rather better conditions
than usual exist in Austro- Hungarian farming
districts and although France cannot expect to
equal the previous record breaking yield, there
is every reason to anticipate better results than
in years preceding 1899. In Germany. Great
Britain and Australia a fair crop is expected,
while in Belgium, Sweden. Italy and Mexico the
prospects are bright
Mr.. Hill and Mr. Croker evidently believe In
fighting for harmony. if they have to have it,