The farmer and mechanic. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 18??-19??, 1900-08-21
The Price of Cotton.
(Atlanta JOurnal.)

II.
cultural editor of the journal. several |
months ago predicted that cotton |
would bring ten cents a pound this |
1all, there was sllepticism in the !
minds OF many who had not given the |
subject study, and even in the minds
Of some who had. \ number. of far
mcrs and fertilizer concerns sold cot
ton for fall delivery at about eight
cents.
Now it transpires that there is moro
faith' III the staple, and the talk of
ten cents has become common among
newspapers and people who have just
walked up to the situation. No enc
can predict with absolute certainty
what the market will be, but the
general opinion as TO the fan price
OF cotton is far above that Of two or
three months ago.
There IS an impression that the de-
mand for cotton will be seriously cur
tailed by the war in China. This is
popular impression calculated to eff
feet the price of the staple, but in
well informed circles it will not have
much effect, for general reasons,
among which are the following:
The amount of raw cotton purchas-
ed by China in 1899 was $4,000 bales
but her purchase of cotton goods
amounted to .5.51 OIL. Tho amount
OF raw cotton in these goods, added
| to that taken in the raw state. will
make about $G0O,0U0 bales of 500
pounds.
| If all Of this trade were cut off by
! the war this year il would be offset
| twice over by the failure of the crop
! in India.
| It is estimated that the cotton crop
of India this year Will be about one
| I, <>f4 4 r.
| years. That average was about 1900
GEO bales Of 800 pounds each. This
year the official estimate Of the direc
| tor general Of statistics for India is
| about 100000 bales of 800 pounds each.
| This leaves a shortage of 1,4OO. 900
| bales in India. If the demand for
cotton and cotton goods in China
were wholly cut OF, the shortage OF
the crop in India would offset it and
| still leave a shortage of 100000 bales.
| 1t is not likely that the Chinese de
mand viii he entirely cut off. While
war is progressing in the province OF
Pc Chi ii, containing the cities of
I'ekin and Tier Tsin. Other provinces.
with the ports OF Hong Kong. Can
| ton and Shanghai arc open to trade.
The bulk of imports goes through
| Hong Kong, and there we have heard
| of no check upon trade. Il is Likely.
! therefore. that most of the consump-
tiOn of cotton goods in China viii be
reported thc coming year. If the al
lied powers speedily reduce the in
| surrection, which has been called ''an
imperial riot" confined mostly to the
province which Includes the capital
and Ticn Tsin, and the progressiN c
young emperor is placed on the
throne, the entire country will be
opened up and the foreign trade will
be immensely increased. The ten
tlcncy in that direction is shown Hy
he fact that it increased 25 per cent
in the last year reported, ending with
1899.
The chances arc that after tho cur
tailmcnt of demand, it any, due ia
The war in China. is deducted, the
crop failure in India will have a short
age of over a million bales, so far as
the continent Of Asia is concerned
With cotton consumption increasing
throughout the civilized world. and in
many parts which are hardly civiliZ-
cd. there will be q large relative
shortage.
In this country the condition OF the
growing crop was reported by tn,
government bureau Of statistics at rs
which is lower than the condition OF
the crop on August first for severa
wears. The crop promise OF two on
three weeks ago has not continued
and urtimelv drouth following a wei
season has done much damage to the
GOTTEN in some sections.
5 Well informed opinion now looks
l for q crop Of about 10.25o,0GN in this
t country and o crop in the rcst Of the
; world far below that of recent wears
/, Under these circumstances, with pros
nerC1s times and a high level of rur
chasing power among tn" Worlt
t workers, the price ought to be good