The times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1897-1901, 1900-07-11
MIDDLE WEST CAMPAIGN
The German American Vote to Be
r the Determining Factor.
states Which Went for Mckinley I'm
ISo6 Likely to he Fouud In the
Democrauc Column This Year
Change of Sentiment Due to the
Administrntion's Colonial Policy.

1t is conservatively estimated that If
so per cent of the German American vote
in the States of Indiana. Illinois. Minnesota,
Wisconsin. and Ohio. which went for Nc
Kinley in 1896 goes for Bryan this year.
all of those States can be safely counted
in the Democratic column. This estimate
assumes that the German vote of the
FIVE States named went almost soiidly to
Mckinley four years ago on the currency
question, and that that issue. being now
overshadowed by imperialism, and the
Germans being especially wrought up over
the serious questions involved in Mr. NC
Kinley's colonial policy. their votes Will
be almost. II not quite, as solidihed
! against him as it was for him in the last
campaign.
This would make a change of seventy
three. votes In the electoral college. or
twenty zone more than would be necessary
to elect Bryan. assuming. of course. that
none of the States which went for Bryan
in 1856 will desert him this year. But
granting even that some of the small
States of the far West-such as Washing
ton, Wyoming. and South Dakota-should
thfs year be won over to Mckinley, not more
than dozen votes could thus be mus
tered for Mr.. Hannas candidate in the
eloctoeaf college. Washington has four
votes. Wyoming three, and South Da-
kota four. II these States are doubtful
1t is seen that only eleven votes that
went to Bryan in 1896 are thus imperiled.
Fusion Organization Strong.
With the exception of Wyoming. how
ever. there seems no reason to believe
the Republican claims that there is any
danger to Bryan in the small silver States
OF the far West. Certainly there is not
the remotest danger in Idaho, Colorado.
Montana. or Utah. The fusion arrange
ment in these States is strong and wieldly
today as il ever was. all Of the local fights
CT the past four years having been made
under the old conditions and all of the
local tickets at present being organized
around this old arrangement. If Ohio
should remain true to Mckinley. despite
the great personal unporularity of the
| Presidents campaign manager Ia that
State, Bryan on this estimate would be
only two votes short of the goal. That
these two votes could be picked up in
Delaware nobody even partially acquainted
with the growing unrest In the Blue Hen
State can doubt. The Addicks scandal
alone is generally considered sufficient to
give Delaware to Bryan. to say nothing
of the naturally dominant Democratic
, sentiment OF the State.
! At the present time it is considered
that the Republicans have made an IN
expected rally in Kansas, and if they can
held their organization intact through
the tremendous storm of excitement that
viii sweep across the prairies OF the Sun
flower State from now until November
their electoral vote may again be thrown
! to the Republican column. At the same
time there is large German American
Republican vote in Kansas which will b.
affected by the causes which are operating
to weaken the hold of the Hanna machine
on the States of Illinois. Indiana. Mime
sofa. Wisconsin. and Ohio. ard this vote
it is generally believed. is heavy enough
to determine the contest when the lines
| are closely drawn. However. Kansas has
| only ten votes. while Kentucky has
thirteen. only ore OF which was cast 70,
Mr.. Bryan in the last election.
The Bluegrass State cannot now, under
any system OF classification be account ted
even doubtful ground. much less can it b.
claimed by the Republicans The assas-
sination OF Goebel and the performance
I of the Republican leaders of that State
! since the Gosbel tragedy have placed Ken
tucky in the Democratic column as surely
as Missouri will again roll up a big ma
jority for Bryan. Thus. granting that
Q Kansas will return TO her Idols that
slump for Bryan will be more than Offset
by Kentucky's coming back into line and
! leave three votes 10 snare
Maryland md West Virginia.
| No account in the foregoing estimate
has been taken of the probable changeA
east OF the Allegheny Mountains. Mary
land year ago went Democratic by an
oldtime majority. and the organization
! of the party in that State is in excellent
fighting shape at present. The interests
of the Gormanites demand that they brin3
the State into line for Bryan this year in
, order to assure Mr.. Germans return TO
the Senate when the term of the dis
gruntled Senator Wellington expires.
Therefore. whatever depressing effect the
reiteration Of lS to l by the Kansas City
Convention may have upon the party IS
| spirit In Maryland harmonious co-opera-
tion will suggest itself to both factions as
| the only safe course to attain the object
each side has in View. This prospect,
| then, adds eight more votes TO the Bryan
| side OF the ledger The conditions are
| quite as favorable TO Democratic success
! in West Virginia as they are in Maryland
! Months ago the clearest- -visioned Repub-
lican in that State. Senator Eikins.
abandoned hope of holding West Virginia
Indeed, long before Congress adjourned
Senator Elkins very plainly informed his
colleagues that he did not expect to be
returned TO the Senate by the Legislature
| to be elected in November. and that his
successor would be Democrat.
| 1t was for this reason that the Senator
I was an active candidate for the Vice Presi-
Dental nomination of his party. snd
| abandoned that race only when he was
made to realize that Roosevelt was actu-
| ally needed TO strengthen the ticket The
| experts are even more confident of West
! Virginia swinging back TO the Democracy
| this year than they are that Maryland
| a,ilt do tbere not 40 same lnpal