Arizona republican., 1900-12-14
A Temporary Check Put Upon
 Spec uIation.
A Tendency to Enter Upon the Next Year in Spirit of soberness. Bears Take Advantage of It.

market it had been assumed that the boom following the election had come to make a considerable stay. Judg- ing the position of the market from the new elements brought into it by the defeat of MT. Bryan's disorganizing policies, this sanguine expectation was not surprising; for the public vote did in every way mean very much for the permanent welfare of the coun- try. It is always difficult, however, to judge what valuation Wall street should or will put on any new factors entering the market; and practiced operators are not wont to defer realiz- ing until holders of stocks begin to wonder whether prices are not as high as conditions on thewhole warrant. The time at which the veteran prefers to sell is when the junior are sangune about he prospect of a further rise in prices. It is the adoption of these tactics that explains the downward drift of the last few days. The break has been in no sense the result of strict and deliberate valuation of sec urlties under the improved conditions lately introduced. It is the result of a rule usually pretty closely followed by trained speculators who understand how to forestall rthe untrained in talk ing profits.
 Under these circumstances, the late recalling is not to be construed as mean ing that the election boom has spent all its force and that prices will relapse permanently to a level more or less approaching the ante-election range of values.
 The remarkably active buying at the highest range of prices meant some thing that is worth considering. It showed that a large number of invest ors and speculators were strongly 1m- pressed that the election had intro duced important new and permanent elements into the value of securities a conviction in which even those wno have realized their speculative profits must also have shared. That convic- tion means the introduction of a strong staying element into the market. It rests upon reasons so tangible and real that those who have bought securities upon them will be likely to hold them tenaciously rather than confess that they have erred in their estimation of the new factors that have taken pos session of the investment situation. It therefore does not appear likely that the realizing done by a considerable number who speculate by rule, rather than on the intrinsic merits of situa- tion, will be followed by any consider able portion of those who are strongly impressed that the intrinsic value of investments stands materially higher than it did before the election. Should this class of holders stick to their con victions. it is not easy to see what stands in the way of a revival of the boom. It may not, probably will not, come until we get fairly into the new year. Under no circumstances would free buyng of stocks be in order during the three closing weeks of the year. which are occupied with annual settle ments and winding up of accounts. This period Is apt to be used by opera tors in depressing prices in order to get securities for resale when investors are putting their January dividends and coupons into relnvestment. In view of this customary course of the market, there is a strong bear contingent working vigorously to break prices. which along with the realizing of pro- fits amounts to a strong adverse pres sure on the market.
 Under these circumstances the mar ket between now and the beginning of January may be expected to be un- settled and better adapted for off-and- on trading than for continuous buying without realizing. But the risks are likely to be with the "bears" more than with well-protected bulls" The market is already being quite largely oversold which is likely to have steadying effect on values, and may lay the basis for a revival of the boom at the opening of the new year. The mercurial western operators who bought so largely during the advance are getting out of their holdings most incontinentIy: but as they are above all adept in the detection and following of market currents and seem to have a preference for "bulp' opera tions, they may be among the first to accept an upward turn in the market. should that occur. In any case, it may be eX- pected that New York will easily con trol the market. The western centers can only follow the metropolis. Lon don is finding it the safest course to ac- cept the lead of the home market. rather than take independent action on its own imperfect information. Be sides which, the European money mar kets are becoming so dependent on ours that the foreign speculators have no longer any advantage for their con- tiguity to the great lending centers. Upon the whole, therefore, should it prove that after giving fun vent to the current reactionary drift, there still re- mains a majority sentiment in favor of promoting a return to the specula- tion for higher prices, it is not apparent hot ohcf 1ilyaIN stand In the way. For the moment. however, the prudent course for specu- lators is to buy on the drops and accept moderate profits, and for investors to take in securities on moderate con- sessions in prices.
 After all. there Is some ground for congratulation over the check to the extraordinary furore of speculation. Added to the reasonable qualification over the business benefits to accrue from A continued pursuit of sound na-