Evening times-Republican. [volume] (Marshalltown, Iowa) 1890-1923, 1900-11-17


sure eddies move from the Rock noun
tains eastward. They vary from the
gentle whirls to storms of considerable
intensity. Their average diameter Is
about n thousand miles. The West
Indian hurricane, which ome up from
the tropics and skirts along our At
lantic shore-line, has a diameter of
rotation less than one-half that OF the
usual low-pressure eddy; but its veloc-
fty OF rotation is much greater. Many
of these hurricanes have a diameter
Of only three or four hundred miles;
but their velocity Of rotation is very Of
ten enc hundred miles per hour, altho
their rate of translation, al they move
northeast along our coast, is seldom,
greater than thirty miles per hour.
Twenty-Five years ago mariners on
our great lakes and seaboard depended.
on their own weather lore to warn them
Der Of craft plying on our waters was
much less than now, every severe storm
that swept the lakes or Atlantic coast
left destruction and death in its wake,
and for days afterward the dead were
cast up by the receding waves, and the
shores We're lined with wreckage. Hap
PLY this need not now be the case, for
the weather bureau Of the department
of agriculture is ever watching the
changes of atmospheric conditions and
giving the mariner warning OF coming
storms. Each observer telegraphs in-
stantly to the central office whenever
the instruments at his station show
unusual agitation. BY this mea the
inception of many storms is detected
when the regular morning and evening
reports fail to give notice of their ORE
gin.
Some idea of the vast interests float
ing in Atlantic ports may be had when
it is stated that 5,62S transatlantic
steamers, with an aggregate of 10,076.14S
tons, n 5,S42 sailing craft, Aggregate
ing 2,105,6S8 tons, enter and leave ports
on the Atlantic seaboard during a
single year. The value of their cargoes
is more han a billion and a half of dol
lars. Our coastwise traffic also is enor-
nous. In y year more than ii, 900 sail
ing vessels and 1000 steamers enter and
leave ports between Maine mi Florida.
Their cargoes are estimated to be worth.
s 1000. 900. From these facts one can
roughly measure the value of the mar
inc property which the department Of
agriculture. thru the work Of the.
protect by giving warning of approach
ing storms.
1t is the dream OF the meteorological
that some day he will be able accur-
ately to forecast the weather weeks and
months in advance. But so far this
Observation-Disclosures object can be real
lied only in a dream. What a wonderful.
conservation of human energy would.
result were it possible to tell the farmer
when the great corn and wheat belts
would have abundant rain during the
next growing season, or when droughts
would parch the vegetation, or truth
fully to inform the planter of the south
thas the approaching season would be
favorable or ~unfavorable to the produc-
ton of cotton! Effort would be Withheld
in one part of the country and pro-
digious energy exerted in another.
When u extensive system Of daily
observation has been continued for
another generation a Kepler or a New
ton may discover such fundamental
principles underlying weather changes
as will make it possible to fortell the
character of coming seasons. If this
discovery be aver made it will doubt
less be accomplished as the result of a
comprehensive study of meteorological
data OF long periods covering a great
area like the United States. AT any rate
we are certainly now laying the foun-
dalton of a great system which will
i, 49,, 49, o:,;1s. -, So -. Er.x..-I-.--G
turtles.
At the present time I know of no
scientific man who essays to make
long-range weather predictions, and I
would especially caution the public
against the iInposture of charlatans
and astrologists, who simply prey upon
the credulity of the people. AS storms
of more or less intensity pass over large
portions of our country every few days
during the greater part of the year, and
as it is seldom that the weather export
does not show one or more storms as
operating somewhere within our broad
domain, 1t is easy to forecast thunder
storms about a certain time in July or
g cold wave II snow about a certain
period in January and stand a fair
chance to become accidentally famous
as a prophet. You may select any three
equidistant dates in January and fore
cast high wind. snow and cold for New
York city and stand a fair chance of
having the fraudulent forecast verified
In two or three cases; provided that
you claim a storm coming the day be-
fore or after one Of your dates to be the
storm which you expected.
l believe it is impossible for any one
today TO make a forecast. based fairly
upon my principles of physics or upon
any empiric rule in meteorology, for a
greater period h one or W days in
winter and for more than two or three
days in summer; and there are times in
winter when the movements of air con-
ditions are so rapid that it is extremely
difficult to forecast ever for the space
OF one day. The weather bureau takes
the public into its confidence in this
matter and does not claim to be able to
do more than it is possible to accomp-
lish.
Having reached the highest degree of
accuracy possible with our present in
%strumental readings. it becomes neces-
sary to invade new realms if we desire
to improve. the character Of the forecast
and make it of greater utility. have
long realized this and several years ago
determined Systematically II attack the
problem OF upper air exploration with
the hope of being able ultimately to
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