The evening times., 1900-01-22
BOER DEFEAT PREDICTED
The Opinion Of Fritz MOsenthal,
Once 0Om PauIS Prisoner.
The Critical Point of the War VIII
Have Been Reached md Passed
When LHdysmith Is RcIicVed-The
stsitIsh Triumph Cannot Be Long
DeIRyed--An Option On DeIaEoa Bay

NEW YORK, Jan 22.-''Ladysmith is
the key to the position now II Butler de-
feats the Beers and relieves that city the
critical point OF the war VIII have been
reached and passed. The Boer fights well
from behind cover and well while victory
is with him. but the Boer army will not
preserve its integrity and defensive power
after one great reverse.
This is the opinion Of Fritz M0senthaI.
director OF several gold mining and bank
ing companies in Johannesburg. who was
long a prisoner of Dom Paul after the
jameson raid. and who left the Transvaal
when war was declared. together with all
other British subjects. His view is essen
TALLY that of the Uitlander.
Mr. Mosenthal arrived here Saturday on
the Cunard liner Campania. and is visiting
his sister at 16 West Eighty-ffth Street.
and his brother. Cedar Street insurance
broker. at l12 Vest Eighty-ffth Street.
He Is a man Of wealth and education who
has lived for thirty-hye years in South
Africa.
Politically speaking. Mr. Mosenthal is
English. but he gives clear reasons for
his position. He knows the Boer from
long acquaintance. With ifty-seyen other
members of the celebrated Reform Com
mittee he was arrested in johannesburg
after the Jameson raid. Four of the pris-
Oners were sentenced TO death. The 9TH
erS, OF whom Mr. MOsenthal was one. were
10 serve two years in prison. The death
sentences were commuted and Mr.. Mosen
thai. after spending six weeks IN conhne-
ment. paid a fine OF 900 and was freed.
The latest news Is good" said Mr.. No
senthal. The English. Il seems. are about
TO relieve Ladysmith. II that be done the
Beers must soon retreat TO their own ter
ritory. Then the English with a free foot
and no difficulty from flank or rear. Will
cross the mountains in their own time.
Once this is apparent ! think the bot
tom will fall out Of the Boer resistance
BOer successes thus far? Yes they have
done well. The English have made some
mistakes. chiefly this that they have not
given enough weight to the fact that the
BOer strength lies essentially IN a bush
whacking sort OF campaign. But now there
are some 1000 loyal cOlOnists enrolled
men who shoot as true as the BOers. know
the country as well, and. what is more.
are OF superior intelligence.
These colonial troops together with the
altered tactics Of the British are having
their effect. There can be but one and the
British triumph cannot be long delayed
Talk OF European interference growing
out OF the use OF DelagOa Bay Is absurd. II
is known that England has long held BY
treaty an option on Delagoa Bay. should
she decide TO buy and the Portuguese to
SELL there is no chance OF any complica-
ton.
1t is simply a question this whole
War-Of the TransyaaI and a great portion
Of South Africa having Just rule and equal
rights for all breadwinners aud property
holders. as being dominated by the Beers.
who ruled that an Outlander could not be
come a citizen with franchise rights. no
matter how long he had lived in the coun-
try. until he was elected to citizenship by
a majority OF the burghers resident therein.
which meant in most cases that he would
not become citizen at all. since the men
"ith votes-the old burghers-would sure
ly defeat him
I know Dom PauI He Is a typical
BOer- He had beer preparing for war
since 1856. and since hat year the Trans
vaal has spent $50 SNO. .OOO for cannon.
small arms and ammunition. He is an
astute man-but Boer Many OF the
Beers officers have had a European mill
tary training. Such foreign officers as
serve with them are men who we're COM
FNAAFA " ANahN tAAC Sci VICE Al uuLue-
The education OF BOer-the highest
he aiIcs ats to be able TO read the Bible.
become a member or the church, be con-
firmed, and be able 20 write He despIses
more knowledge than that. He is a dead
shot. but personally grant exceptions
lis not a courageous man.
His fight Is not one for home. fireslde.
and religion. II is a hght for political
power plain and simple. Up TO 1887 there
were only so 900 people in the Johannes
burg district. Now there are 200 600. and
the income from that territory is $50. 900. %
000 annually. The men who increased this
annual income from $500 600 are the men
who have been denied their rights
'OOm Paul viii not take bribes.' the
speaker said. slowly and with peculiar
emphasis. NO. A contractor built him
a grand house and made him a present OF
II. Then he obtained a concession OF i'm
mense value. These things were almost
simultaneous Another man wanted n
farm Dom Paul had one to sell for f4 900
The man paid him $4,000 a year for an
option OF purchase at e1OO. .OOO He got
the sole right to manufacture dynamite in
the Transvaal. This. doubtless. is a
singular coincidence" And he smiled
blandly.
Mr.. MOsenthal left Johannesburg in Sep
tember and sailed from Cape Town TO
England when Butler landed. His house.
like that OF thousands of johannesburg
residents, is locked and empty.
SAGE LEAVES HIS CHURCH.