Yorkville enquirer. [volume] (Yorkville, S.C.) 1855-2006, 1900-10-03
GUESSING ABOUT COTTON.
Bankers, Spectators and Spinners Are All AT
Sea.

Sed.
The Augusta Chronicle of Sunday
printed the following interesting cotton
letter from New York:
The exceedingly active demand on
New York by Southern banks to move
the crop have become particularly
influential factor in the New York
money market. There has probably
never existed a time when Southern
banks have drawn down their deposits
in New York to such small balances
as now exist, and they are furthermore
very active in New York as borrowers.
New York bank people are giving the
Southern situation very careful study
at the moment and they estimate with
remarkable unanimity, That the South
will require tomorrow in New York be-
tween 20 and 30 per cent. more money
to market the current crop than was
required last year. Southern banks
will of course continue to borrow here
until the crop begins to reach market
in fair quantities, when they will be
able to very rapidly liquidate their
loans and renew their balances here.
The active foreign demand for cotton
Is shown by the large offerings Of cot
ton bills by sterling exchange brokers
in the financial districts here. These
offerings are much larger than at this
season for many years.
Liverpool has been asking what the
situation will be when the stocks in
crease? A question to which satis-
factory answer does not appear forth
coming. The view taken there Is, that
a coincidence Of circumstances has oc-
Cured to assist the bulls, while the
bears have been absolutely routed and
driven off the field. They bear in mind
there that Nei's methods of estimating
the crop is based almost wholly upon
the weather and recall the last year
Neill and other experts who relied on
the weather were sadly disappointed
in their estimates. The point is made
that the weather this season has been
unusual, and enough to puzzle any
weather catcher, and yet here in
New York there also may be found day
after day, people who are calculating
on big crop, based almost entirely on
reports of rainfall and sunshine thus
far in the season and nothing else.
Representatives Of Liverpool con-
Germs, returning from a tour Of inspec-
ton, report condition in North Caro-
lima entirely unlocked for with indica-
tions of that state yielding no less than
I to 9 per cent. in excess Of last year,
providing the appearance of frost Is not
too early.
1t is, said a well-known broker of
this city, when informed of the view
held by the Liverpool people, most
singular thing that nine out of ten peo-
pie reaching here from the South, are
on the bear side. I cannot understand
this. I am aware that there has been
much talk Of a big short interest in the
South; but do not believe it.
If accounts from Mississippi and
Louisiana are at all trustworthy there
will be a great bull movement at no
far distant date. The trade here has
been advised to be on guard against
big crop estimates and 1t is prophesied
that by the close Of October receipts
will peter out and the trade will be
convinced that a crop exceeding 9,000,-
900 bales is out of the question.
Reports along this line have also
been circulated in the trade as to the
condition of the crop in the Memphis
district. Some correspondents assert
that even without early frost the crop
must fall short of the last, and some
in that district contend that the situa-
tion is the poorest in rs years.
Liverpool, according to a large COM
mission firm, is entirely too hysterical
on the situation and the trade there
generally is in the opinion of many
conservative cotton students taking a
very distorted view of the present and
prospective conditions.
Parties in close touch with spinners
and exporters state that as yet the de-
mand from New England spinners has
been very insignificant. they apparent
ly having not yet become reconciled in
regard to the present price for prompt
shipment. The situation in regard to
China. they say, is unchanged. and
there is absolutely nothing doing; while
their advices from Japan appear to in
dicate that the chances Of marketing
raw cotton there are, at present, very
slim. In fact the stocks there are so
large that a shipment of some 700
bales has been recently made to Liver
pool.