The watchman and southron. [volume] (Sumter, S.C.) 1881-1930, 1900-08-22
THE PRICE OF COTTON.

When Hou c. II. Jordan, the agri
cultural editor of the Journal, several
months ago predicted that cotton
would bring ten cents pound this
fall, there was skepticism in the
minds Of many who had not given
the subject study, and even in the
minds of some who had A number
of farmers and fertilizer concerns sold
cotton for fall delivery at about eight
cents
Now it sranspises that there is
more faith in the staple, and the talk
of ten cents has become common
among newspapers aud people VINO
have just walked up to the situation.
No one can predict with absolute
certainty what the market will be,
but the general opinion as to the fall
price of cotton is far above that OF
two or three months ago.
There is an impression abroad tbta
the demand for cotton will be serious
ly curtailed by the war in China
This q popular impression calculated
to effect the price of the staple, but
in we'll informed circles it will not
have much effect, for general reasons,
among which are the following:
The amount of raw cotton pur
oh.oed hv China in 1899 was ~ 900
bales, but her purchases Of cotton
goods amounted to $73. ,97l. The
amount of raw cotton in these goods.
added to that taken in the raw state.
will make about 5000 bales of 500
pounds.
If all of this trade were cut off by
TIE war this year it would be Offset
twice over by the failure of the crop
in India.
It is estimated that the cotton crop
of Iodia this year will be about ooe
fourth of the average for the past five
years. TIA. average was about l, ,900.-
900 bales of SOC pounds each This
year the cGcia! estimate of toe director
general O.; statistics for Iodia IS about
500 900 bales Of 500 pounds each.
This leaves . shortage of l 400, 600
bales io Iodia. # The demsud for cot
ton aud cotton eoods in China we're
wholly ca. CT, the snorsagc OF the crop
in India would oGse: it aud still leave
shortag, CT 100000 bales.
It is 1cs likely tha: toe Chinese
demand will bc entirely CO. OF Waile
war is progressing in the province OF
Pc Chi Ii. containing ;ne cities of
Pekio and Tien Ts;o, other provinces
with the ports CT Hong Kong, Canton
aud Shanghai are open to trade.
The bulk of the imports goes through
Rons Kong. and there We have beard
of 90 check upon trade. 1t is likely.
therefore, that most of the consumption
of cotton goods 10 China will be re-
rorsed the coming year. If the allied
powers speedily reduce the insurrec-
ton, which hss been called "an i'm
perial riot ooo6oed mostly to tbe pro
vince whioa includes the capital and
Tieo Tsin. aad the progressive young
emperor IS placed on the throne, the
entire couosry will be opened up and
the foreign trade will be immensely
increased. The tendency 10 that
direction is showo By the fact that
it increased 25 per cent 10 the last year
reported. ending with 1899.
The chances are that after the cur
tailmen. Of demand. if sDy, due to the
war in China, is deducted, the crop
failure io India will have shortage of
over a million bales, so far as the
continent of Asia is concerned. With
Gotten consumption increasing through
on. the civilized world. aud 10 maoy
parts which ;s hardly civilized, there
vii. be large relative shortage.
In this country the condition Of the
growing crop was reported by the gov
erument bureau at IS, which is lower
than the condition of the crop on Aug
lst for several years The crop prom
ise Of Two or three weeks ago bas not
continued and oosimely droush follow
ing q VET season has done much damage
to the cotton ia some sections.
Well informed opinion uow looks for
crop of about 10, $50 900 10 this
country and crcp in the rest of the
world far below that OF recent years.
Under these circumstances. with pros
porous tiues and high level of
purchasing pcwe. among the worlds
workers, tie price ought to be good
Atlanta Journal.