New-York tribune., 1900-04-22
WAR TALK WITHOUT WAR.

"Threatened men live long" Equally true is
the paraphrase which we may make: Threat
ened peace is long maintained. The world is
ever filled with rulmors Of war There are actual
wars too But the wars that are and the wars
that are threatened are not the same. The rule
might well be found true in much of the history
OF the world. But if we take only that portion
of history within the personal ken of living men
its vindica ion is impressive. OF all the wars
that have occurred only a few were looked for
and talked of long before. OF all the wars that
have been talked of only few have mate
rialized. our own Civil War was long foreseen.
no doubt But who expected our war with
Spain? Why. down to the very day of Spain's
dCclara ton men were everywhere saying conf
IDENTITY. There will be no war: Spain will not
fight us The great Franco-tieman War WAS
not generally looked for. Neither was that he
tween China and Japan. The ussoTurkish
War of 1871 had been expected. but when 1t
came ii was more THIN half surprise. On the
other hand, how many wars that have been
COckSuely prUpheSied have after many years
quite failed to come TO the scratch? For score
Of years France and Germany have been at dag
gers drawn, but they have not fought, and Ger
many this year is one of the chief exhibitors at
the French Worlds Fair. Great Britain and
Russia too. for still longer time have been
the antagonists of prophetic Armageldon, but
ne shot has yet been fired. At present it is the
fashion to predict unutterable things to occur
between Japan and Russia over Corea They
may occur. But it Is as well to remember that
a rule war talk does not mean war.
Nor is this in the least degree paradoxical 1t
is true that in much thinking upon war men be-
come bellicosc. But there is reason to doubt
whether the nations about which there Is
much war talk do half as much thinking about
do their neighbors who talk about them.
But. be that az it may the fact that war is
pected or feared acts also in the other direction.
1t sets rational and conservative men to devils
ing ways and means by which 1t may be averted.
That is the case in all lands excepting in the rare
instances in which people or their rulers actually
want war. In 1870 both Bismarck and Napoleon
wanted war. and they got it, and they would
have had ii no matter whether there had been
twenty years or only twenty minutes of war
talk. To-day whatever irresponsible dema-
gOgues may desire. the men who direct the des-
tinies of France and Germany do not want war.
Despite all the talk, they are constantly
working and making for the maintenance of
peace. The result is that peace is preserved.
So Great Britain and Russia have theoretically
been snarling at each other across the Roof of
the World. But neither wants war. In conse-
quence Russia is finding other outlets TO the
worlds central seas and Great Britain is finding
out that she can afford to let Russia do so with
out impcrling her own empire And there too,
there is no war.
To what extent the formidable character of
modern armaments and the dreadful results that
might be expected from collision between two
great armies may contribute to this war avoid
ing disposition of the Powers is an interesting
question. 1t is probably pretty large extent.
If so. ii may be that the vast sums spent upon
those armaments are, after all, economical
investment. For. great as is the cost of the
arna mentS. il is mere fraction of the price
of an extensive war. Suppose, for example,
that all we spent upon the war with Spain
had been spent a few years before in build
ing warShips and equpping batteries. Spain
would never have ventured to tight so over
whemng strength ours would obviously
have been. But, however that may be, it is
quite evident that war talk is, as q rule to
be regarded as by no means alarming. 1t is
not the long standing. much exploited feud that
IS to he dreaded but the sudden quarrel, in an
unexpected quarter that bursts into disastrous
flame before thought can be taken or dellbera-
tOn be had. 1t is the bolt from the blue" not
the war cloud" that is to be feared. Wherever
there is much war talk there is comparatively
little fear of war