Evening bulletin. [volume] (Honolulu [Oahu, Hawaii]) 1895-1912, 1900-11-05
mckinney IS sure
70 Be PRESIDENT
National Canvass by New
York Herald Gives
Result.
REPORTS ARE MADE
WITHOUT PARTY BIAS
Whsrs Mckinley Will Make Gains
Bryan Loses Heavily in West
New York Sure
Republican.

New York, Oct. 20.-The Herald
says: McKinley's probable electoral
votes in 1900, 2S2. Bryan's probable
electoral votes In 1900, 165. Whole
number Of votes In Electoral College,
AT. Necessary to a choice. ga. Nc
Kinley's probable majority In 1900.
III. McKinley's majority in 1896, IS.
This Is the Herald's prediction Of the
result of the Presidential election. The
data upon which It Is based have been
collected with more than usual care.
Men Of experience In gauging public
opinion on political questions have
been stationed for weeks in the Doubt
full states, where both parties have
been making great efforts. These men
have done work absolutely without bias
and have reduced their observations
to cold-blooded calculation, and in each
instance have given what they con-
slider the strong probabilities. In addi-
ton to this the country has been can
vassed in another way. through other
correspondents or through newspapers
associated with the Herald In gather
Ing news. This second poll was con-
Quoted for the purpose Of ascertainlng
the probable complexion Of the Fifty
seventh Congress. and furnishes, as a
check on the other canvass, indica-
lions as to how the election Is going FOR
President. In both Investigations prac-
tically the same result has been reach
ed In all the States which. during the
campaign. have been regarded as night
ing territory. ....,.. .
Mckinley and Roosevelt will hold
all the border Southern States that
went for Mckinley and Hobart in 1885,
with the exception Of Kentucky. Ken.
lucky is doubtful still, but the proha-
bilities are for Bryan. West Virginia,
Maryland and Delaware are regarded
as safe for the Republican candidates
Mckinley will probably have Indiana
and II he gets It the result will be en-.
tirely due to the farmer vote. The
States which were carried by Bryan IN
1896 and which will go for Mckinley
this year are South Dakota, Kansas
Washington and Wyoming. Bryan
got one electoral vote In California IL
1896. California Is solid for Mckinley
now.
With the exception Of Kentucky Nc
Kinley will hold all the States he car
ried In 1896 and make a net gain o.
eleven electoral votes In California
South Dakota. Wyoming and Washing
ton. ..#a| Et
In the present House the Republican,
have 1856. Democrats 1862. all other anti
Republicans Z, while there are thre'
vacancies. This gives the Republicans
10 working majority Of sixteen. TIL
hew House will probably have 1856 Re
publican votes, the Democrats win hav,
1853, there will be three Fusionists ant
Silver Republicans. two Populists an
fourteen districts are doubtful. Gain
In the House have been made by tn
Democrats on the West and South. bu
they are Offset by gains made by tn
Republicans In the East. In the Sen
ate, where the Republicans now hav
nifty members. the indications are tina
next year they will have At least forty
six members. which Is one more than
majority. There are eleven doubtful
Senatorial elections pending. and tn
Republicans can scarcely lose coutro
OF the Senate. even should Bryan b
elected. Quay may not be elected I
Pennsylvania, Elkins may be defeate
In West Virginia and Pettisrew ma
lose In South Dakota.
No States indicate a great a majoI
ity for Mckinley a. In 1895. The plu
rality In New York will be more tina
cut In two. Illinois. which gave 142 %
Republican majority four years as,
will not give over $4,000. and the Der
ocrats are likely to elect the Governc
and Legislature. The majority in OH
will also b. gut. Nebraska will 81,
Bryan 5000 plurality and elect Z,
sion Legislature. which will. In tur,
elect Bryan to the United States Bel
ate. aan
i The Hersld's returns reveal tn;
: while the voters are not satisfied vii
the policy Of the Government In Por'
Rico and the Philippines. and VII.
there Is great dislike and distrust
J the Industrial tendencies toward trus
and combinations Of capital. the DO,
.. erful factor controlling the voters WI
be the fear OF Bryan on financial que
lions and the belief that he wou
bring commercial. financial and indu
' trial disaster II he went to the Viii
| H0uaa