The Saint Paul globe., 1900-10-01
REVIEW 0F WILL STREET
cI,Ews SAYS TT is IN THE PREDICA-
MENT OF BEING DIVIDED
AGAINST ITSELF
BANKING POSITION A FACTOR
Election Canvas blamed for the
Quiet in Speculative Operations
Outcome Sufficiently uncer-
tain to Cause Hesitation.

NEW YORK, Sept 29-tSpecial)-
Henry Clews in his weekly financial re-
view says: Just now, Wall street is IN
The unpromising predicament of being
divided against itself. 1t lacks leader
ship and definite drift. There is no con-
trolling agreement about the nature of
the situation or its tendency for the
near future. Thsre may be the material
out of which a more animated market
could be shaped; but there are few indi
cations of any movement in that 6irec-
ton. The truth is there are many things
affecting speculative movements about
which opinion is uncertain and conflict
ing Everybody realizes that the great
Industrial revolution of the last two
years has thrown considerable uncertain
ty over a large mass of investments. 1t
can hardly be said that those changes
have created much positive distrust; on
the contrary, it is quite generally recog-
nized that, outside Of some of the new
issues of industrial stocks of very du-
bious value, the reconstructed indus
trials represent most important aggre-
gate of securities destined, to a consider
able extent, TO ultimately command a fair
amount of confidence with investors.
The things that are uncertain about
these new securities are, % the extent
to which their distribution has already
reached Its final adjustment; (2l the eX-
tent to which they will become a perma-
nent element in the speculative transac-
tions of the stock exchange; 80 the eX-
tent to which they will prove acceptable
as collateral in speculative loans; (4) how
their market value will compare with
their rate of earnings; and (5) what viii
be the effect upon other securities of this
very large accession to the list of stocks
negotiable on the stock exchange.
These questions are neither very readily
ac-stx NJ
be regarded as satisfactorily settled until
it has been ascertained how far the new
issues are to be absorbed by permanent
investors. On this point, there is little
definitely matured opinion; and for the
present, therefore, the market is har-
assed by the chances of an over supply
of industrial stocks coming from the
original holders in their desire to trans
mute their investments This is an ugly
uncertainty, which 1t may take some
time to get rid Of.
At present railroad stocks bring much
higher prices, relatively TO their earnings
than are obtainable for the industrials
Some take the view that, when the
finances of the new corporations have
been tested by experience, their issues
will rise in public appreciation ard there
fore in price; and hence they reason that
the industrials will advance and railroad
securities decline. This opinion may be
confirmed by the event, or it may not
but it can have no material effect upoa
the immediate course of the market, for
considerable time must elapse before the
problem is settled, still it is a card that
may do some service for the bears" on
railroads. The uncertainty about the
outcome of this sort of competition be-
tween the inGustrials and the railroads is
realfy one OF the most important ele-
mentS now affecting the course of the
floa Of
htude that so prominently. chara ctcrizes
the business of the exchange
Another cause of the quiet in specula-
tive operations arises from the election
canvass Though not by any means
an exciting. campaign, it yet touches very
sharply the pocket nerve of the country.
1t raises the question whether we can
safely take it for granted that there can
De no disturbance of the gold basis; AMI
the financial interests are so exceeding
Iy sensitive about that vital Issue that u
chance Of even one to ten in favor of
Mr.. Bryans election is sufficient to de.
ter not few from investing or specula-
ting. This possibility might count for
nttle We're there any strong bullish ten
cency in force; but, in the absence of
any special indictments to buy it is TO
be reckoned as one of the influences max
ing for dullness.
The banking position, as usual at this;
season OF the year, is not encouraeins
10 speculative buying; but neither does it
oecIdedly encourage selling. Everybody
takes 1T as a matter of course that we
must have more or less stringencv and
nigh rates Of interest during the fall
months, but there is little expecta ton
OF more than the usual autumnal activ-
lty IN money. During the expired period
OF the crop movement the shipments of
currency have been below the ayera ge
Noiufne Tor the season, owing to the
abundance OF the deposits in the banks
OF the interior; We have to face, however,
an eff1uX of money extending over tha
next month or six weeks. The reserves
OF the banks may not suffice for those
requirements; but in the event of any
strlngency, the foreign exchanges would
ADMIT OF ready replenishment through
importations of gold. With a continIi
ance of the now protracted large evcase
OF exports over imports (Which NAV he
regarded as certain), there can be no
occasion for apprehension Of anything
ike serious stringency in money. The
United States is very largely a creditor
TO europe and. can therefore, easily
shield itself against adverse tendencies
In the domestic loan markets.
There is one factor which should gn
Iar towards neutralizing any adverse
tendencies in the stock market The
mercantile community appears unanimous
IN the conviction that we may safely
NS~ASAAeblC uPOl dIlOInGr season OF unusual
prosperity. Two years of such extra
ordinary trade activity as we have al
ready had, reinforced by continued bright
prospects, affords the strongest kind OF
assurance of revival in the stock market.
Inc plllng up Of trade profits at the
rate We have witnessed, happening con
currently with low prices for stocks
and yet large earnings of the railroads.
can hardly fail to produce lively bull
spurt between now and the end of No
Vember, and its appearance at any time
need excite no surprise
The adjustment of labor disagreements
In the iron and steel industry will not
be without ultimate effect on the mar
ket' ana IT Is earnestly hoped that the
progress of negotiat ations reported to he
under way for the settlement of the coal
strike may speedily result In termina-
ton OF the trouble upon a basis Of
equity.