Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1900-11-01
1t Indicates That Bryan Will Be
Defeated.
4 COMMERCIAL PAPER TEST
Ground for Hanna's Confidence in
.McKinIey's Election.
EMOCRATIC OPTIMISM NJ
pecial From a Staff Correspondent.


reached the conclusion that there is no pos
| sible doubt of Bryan's defeat is found in
| the fact that there has suddenly developed
| a demand for commercial paper. In '96
| money could not be raised on commercial
paper before the election at any rate, and
| though money is now abundant it was held
| very close until within the last few days.
| AS long as holders of money entertain any
doubt about the election they can be relied on
| to be very cautious about putting any money
| out, and this caution has been observable
| until now. Though the stock market dis
| counted some time ago the danger of the
| election of Bryan and has been firm in the
| confidence of McKinley's election money
| on loan has been much more conservative
| in calculating on the election. Therefore
the fact that money is now seeking invest
| ment in good commercial paper at interest
| rates advantageous to the borrower shows
| conclusively that all apprehension in tinan-
| cial circles of Bryans election has been re-
lieVed. All who regard the business Judg-
| ment as the soundest upon which to deter
mine election prospects will be convinced
| by this that there is no room for doubt
| of Mckinley's election.
| That it is not alone the banks with money
| to loan that come to this conclusion, but
| leading commercial men as well, Is indi-
| Gated by this reluctance to borrow even at
| the advantageous rates of interest offered,
| being confident of easier money and lower
| rates after the election
| The Sound Money Parade.
| With this feeling among the business men,
| there is every prospect that the sound
| money parade being arranged for next Sat
| urday will be brilliant success. The re-
| publican managers expect from a hundred
and forty to a hundred and sixty thousand
to be in line, and if the weather is not un-
| favorable they will probably not be dsap-
| pointed, if the measure of success is to be
| made by the sentiment here among the
| class of citizens for whom the parade is de-
| signed Large reviewing stands are
| being erected in Madison Square, directly
| under the windows of the democratic ma
tional committee headquarters. The nerves
| of Gov Stone and Representative Richard
| son have stood the strain of the republican
| cheers and the atmosphere of Mckinleyism
| surrounding them here with remarkable
! fortitude, and with faith unshaken can
| stare the most discouraging figures in the
| face. Now, if they can pass through the
!. ordeal of watching all day, long such
| men is promised and still hold their
faith and confidence they will indeed be en-
| titled to the crown for fortitude.
I One of the paradoXes here is that in a city
| conceded to have majority for Bryan the
| opinion should be so common that McKin-
! ley will be elected.
One Mans Prediction.
| Today for the first time, l had a man to
| tell that Mckinley would carry this
city. This is a thing that none of the re-
publican managers believe, and that 1 have
| heard only this say l repeat it,
| not because l able to credit it, but be-
| cause l have high opinion of the man and
| because he is the only one who in SO told
| me that Mckinley would carry this city.
| He bases this prediction on the belief that
| conditions here are the same as they were
| in 80, far as Bryan is concerned. His
| associations are with leading gold demo-
| Gratis men who supported Cleveland in 90,
and financiecs l think he is substantially.
correct in the statement that there is no
| change of sentiment among them, but he
| overlooks the fact that Tammany and lot
of other folks in the common walks of life
who certainly did not support Bryan with
great warmth in '96 are low working earn
| estly for him. He says, however. that there
are some weak spots in Tammany not
| known by Croker, and of this l have had
| other evidence Certainly in some quar-
| ters there is a conflict between business in
terests and loyalty to the organization.
! Democrats generally entertain the idea
| that the republican managers bluffing
in their large claims in the electoral vote
for Mckinley, and that Mr.. Hanna and
his associates are not confident they
| appear to be. l believe this to be a mis-
| take on their part. Trustworthy informa
ton leads me to the conclusion that there
is less than the usual amount of bluff
in the claims made, and that the repub-
leans actually believe that what they say
is warranted. The three biggest machines
In the country for getting information
the organization of the stock mar
ket and the press-all trying their best
to get at the facts In the case-get about
the same result from their inquiries. The
first two of these machines arrive at exact
ly the same conclusion, and the press as
nearly the same as partisanship admits Of
MIR. Hnnna's Confidence.
1t is not unreasonable that Mr.. Hanna
should feel confident with this basis for
his confidence He is a practical man, and
forms his judgment from tangible things,
and is not apt to he impressed by vague
possibilities and things but obscurely in
dicated. The republican managers believe
that they have got everything in as perfect
order in every state that they could hope
to carry as IS possible for organization to
put it. In the close states about every
sixth man is a republican organizer, and
it is his duty to look out for the other five
as well as he can. The exceedingly large
registration throughout the country must
be accounted for either on the theory that
the people are unusually interested in this
election or that organization work has been
very effective. The republicans conceive
that the real condition at the outset was
apathetic and that the large registration
is due to the activity of their own organi-
zation and, therefore, means an increase
of republican votes
Democratic Optimism.
Norman e. Mack and other democrats
who have come in from up in the state
| insist that there is a tremendous Bryan
sentiment among the people everywhere,
and that the republicans are going to be
the worst surprised people in the world
| when the vote is counted. The democratic
workers, those who are on the stump and
those on the committees, national and
state, or county, oppose their faith to all
the cold business arguments that are
stacked up against them AS to New York,
they assert that the difficulties feared in
Brooklyn and in Erie county have all been
| overcome, and that Bryan will carry both; !;
| that great numbers of men up the state
whom the republicans have their poll
49, going to vote for Bryan. and that
| the result of it all will be that Bryan will
get the electoral vote of New York. Smith
tells the managers here that they are go
ing to carry New Jersey, and letters from
| Ohio assert that the German vote and the
| disappointment of republicans who have
failed on patronage and a number of other
| things are going to combine to take that