The times. [volume] (Richmond, Va.) 1890-1903, 1900-06-29
Forecast of the Use Of the Metal for
Next Ten Years.
MANY MILES OF NEW RAILWAY
Ma. Atkinson Predicts the constrnc-
sIon of 100. COO ailes During Next
Fi,ecn Years. and Great Elk
pansion of Electric System.

sseierating rate of consumption of iron
throughout the world Indicated that IN
1900 the total conservative requirements
of the world would demand 49@n,eVe
tons of pig iron, OF which he estimated
That the United States would have to
furnish about 100000 tons. In TINS
weeks issue of the Manufacturers
Record is published another elaborate
paper by Mr. Atkinson, in which me iui-
fillment of his prediction of ten years
aco IS pointed out and forecast of the
coming ten given. The domestic CON
sumption Of iron in the United states
IN 1899 is estimated by Mr- Atkinson at
~, hounds. and The consumption for 1890
at 400 pounds per capita. Apprecia iIls
the danger Of INDUCING in prophecy, Mr..
Atkinson does not undertake 10 make
definite predictions, but lays down now
Rome striking suggestions regarding the
possible consumption of iron in 1910
MILES OF RAILWAY.
The increasing demand, according to
Mr Atkinson, will come from the con-
struction of about 100000 miles OF rall-
Kay during the next fifteen years; from
>1ousabuiiding and constructions. from the
extension OF the electric railway system
of which 10 measure can yet pc COM
Suted; from the increased use OF iron ana
steel in all arts which follow the extern
sion of The railway, and in shipbuiidlng'
that has been established.
..The prices Of IRON says Mr. Akin
von, have doubtless lately been pushed
higher than normal conditions VIII sus-
tain. but at the lessened prices, when
will stili yield very large profits, we may
soon witness an active demand resumed,
while n; the lessened prices the opportu-
nifty for export will be increased. Dur
ans the next ten years, with an average
increase in population exceeding 2rH,ee9
year al 400 pounds per head. there VIII
a,e an increased consumption Of 4eo,tu
net tons q year, and if The law acceier-
ating consumption continues IN the
future as il has in the past coupled with
heavy and increasing exports, it IS
aoubtf1ii il ar. average increase of 100000
tons per annu1u in this country for the
next ten years Will suffice TO supply the
demand"
A BIG AVERAGE.
Referring TO his estimate of 100000 miles
of new railroad construction in the next
Gfteen years. Mr.. Atkinson says:
We have. il is true, sufficient number of
Hhrouch lines from east to west, but the
aconnecting lines and the necessary increase
I'm the railway service of the South and
Southwest. especially in Texas cannot fail
TO carry construction nearly. if not quite.
ITO an average OF 1a,000 miles a. year from
1901 to 1910, inclusive. How much the de-
Neiopment of electric tramways viii be no
snan can tell If we compute the lighter
SemanGs of tramways and add 1t to the
Extension of the regular railway service,
can the TWO combined be less than equal
TO an average of 10000 miles OF regular
railways a year, Every mile requires 100
gons of iron and steel for its track and
equipment, and it means a demand, in I'D
hilton to the present demand, OF 100000
Sons of iron q year for the extension of
The railway service only.
Again, If the logic Of events justified the
prediction made IN 1880 of an increase in
the worlds demand for iron from c5.000,00o
tons to 1000. 900 tons by 1900, will rot The
demand in 1910 require supply of at least
b5.oao,4 900 tons, probably s9.VO0.o01?
If the consumption Of iron par capita in
this country increased as it has, rom 200
pounds per head in 1850 10 -sit pounds per
head in 1890. and TO 400 pounds per head in
$500. will not the same logic of events re-
Auire 500 pounds per head in 1910, when our
population Will exceed 90.000, 900, domestic
consumption calling for over %. 10000 tons
OF iron2 But the increased dependence Of
pther countries Will make that supply in
sufficient If the worlds demand for iron
in 1910 viii surely require a supply Of So
100000 and probably 60.G90,000 tons. from
What deposits of iron ores and coal will the
Increased supply be deriyed2 In view of
ahe present conditions OF Europe, can any
considerable proportion of the increase be
derived from the mines and works of
Great Britain Spain, Sweden. Belgium
and Germany? Can the ores and coal
(which are known to exist in China and
in Africa 7eesin to meet the Increasing de-
snands of Chioa and Africa in the next ten
years? Can Russia supply her own in
creasing denands2 IF not, who will make
5000. 600 tons of iron ten years hence, and
tn what proportion?
REMARKABLE INCREASE
In ISIS the proportions of the CONNER
Eiai product were:
Great Britain --..--.........-. IS 20 per cent.
United States .--.-.-..-...-.- 1880 per cent.
Germany and Belgium. l5.2I per cent
Sfrancs ...---...- 1e.Di per cent.
In 1883 the proportions We're:
Great Britain ....--.......... SSS.le per cent
Anited States -.---.........-- sc. 81 per cent.
1iermany and Belgium .-.-- l7.s4 per cent.
Nrance ---.-.-..... .---------.- GS.93 per cent.
VIII it be possible for the world TO get
supply of 55.oSo,oo0 tons stem years hence
without at least 80 per cent. being derived
from the mines and works of this country?
Then is not the problem now presented
- The people OF this country soon to be-
Come urgent. how TO double the present
product Of iron and steel by Carrying it
from 100000 tons IN the present year to
at least 2S,00e.1oo tons in the year 1910 of
which not less than % - 600 tons Will be
seGuired FOR domestic consumption
With these somewhat startling questions
leave the subject TO the logic of events
Commenting on his the Manufacturers
Record says:
These startling figures and questions
presented by Mr.. Atkinson are exceeding
by timely, in view of the pessinistic feel
sng that has recently swept over The coun-
sry by reason OF temporary halt in the
fron trade The Manufacturers Record
docs moi always agree with AR. Atkinson.s
economic theories. nor with al OF MS anti
expansion efforts, but few men or this
day and generation have done more than
nc in clearly foreseeing coming events
and forecasting the progress of our indus
E-ial interests.
REASONS FOR BELIEF
studying these figures in the light CT
the past, there is every reason for beliey-
Gas tfat the marvellous progress in iron
production and consumption which he in
dicates VIII be fully rea!izea during The
next decade. Ia view of these facts. how
snsiGnif!cant is the temporary hull in the
-consnmptive demand for iron and steel,
for surely as day succeeds night must
there come an increasing demand for iron