New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1900-09-11
KING COTTON.


ton causes anxiety wherever mills require raw
material to fill contracts. The statistical po-
sition is strong, and promises 10 be stronger
when details are known Of the damage in Texas
by the storm. That present prices can be
maintained however. is not obvious by any
means There are two elements to be consid-
cred, always equally important, and in the long
run they determine the value Of all commodi-
ties. While short supply naturally tends to
advance prices, il requires an average demand
to hold the gain Hence the question immedi-
ately becomes complicated
AS to the supply, certain things ascertain
able. THE Financial Chronicle" prepares care
full statistics the subject. and concludes that
visible and invisible stocks were 2095OOO bales
on September l. When this is compared with the
3,77S,O bales available year previous II sug
gests a remarkable reduction, but looking back
three or four years we find supplies smaller than
at present, and in fact only six years on record
exceeded current figures. When the last yield
of 9.439,559 bales Of American cotton is con
sidered small, it also is only in comparison with
the previous high water mark Of 1l,235, 1873
bales; for as a matter Of fact only four crops
in the history Of the country exceeded the last
one That the current American crop must be
eleven million or twelve million bales In order
to meet requirements up to next September has
been asserted by many traders, but this state
ment is based on the idea that consumption will
continue to increase at the rate Of the last few
years.
Here is the element of uncertainty that makes
any positive declaration unsafe The amount
of cotton that will be used during the current
year cannot even be Appropriated. few
facts known, and guesses based on these
may vary according to the fancy Of the prognos-
oil ,bar ofc In
! creased by 1854, 66S during the last year, more
than a quarter Of which were in the Southern
States and the rest mainly in Great Britain and
on the Continent But a great number in Lam
cashire and other foreign places are now idle.
while many domestic mills have excessive
stocks of goods on hand and are not busy. So
| long as present prices prevail it will he I'M
profitable to manufacture goods unless quota
tions for print cloths and other lines of cotton
| goods materially advance.
While consumption of cotton by Southern
! mills has steadily increased during recent years
! there has been a loss at the North and it should
| be remembered that about twO-thrdS of the
! crop is always exported. Last year opened
with the amount abroad and afloat much larger
than in either of the three preceding years so
! that exports fell to 6O422 48 bales against
! 7,455431 in the previous year and 7,646,OS5 two
years earlier If the outward movement fell
! off so heavily last year. although prices started
at only Ga cents and did not reach s cents
until late in January what reason is there to
suppose that foreign buying will be larger in
a year that begins with sales at 10 cents and
advances during the opening weeks to the
highest price in ten years? 1t is not as though
foreign countries were enjoying such prosperity
as has existed in the United States during re-
cent years. On the contrary disasters have
followed each other in rapid succession, and
the people are in no position to pay so per cent
higher prices for cotton goods. Yet that is the
amount of the present advance in raw cotton,
/ and some one will be called upon to make up
the difference.
Great Rritains exports of goods were &c.
244,OOO pounds less during the year just ended
than in the preceding year. chiefly due to
! smaller shipments to India British manu-
facturer suggests that If their mills are closed
by excessive prices for American cotton they
will not resume until raw material can be pro-
cured from India or Egypt But it is probable
that the moderate amount Of cotton raised In
those countries will advance in proportion to
| the gain here. and the mills will only resume
operation when they can market their output
at profitable prices. Even If this country with
all its great wealth. consumed larger share of
its cotton crop there would still be danger Of
TFdCJlOn aIIer excessive HdnuldCluTe ana IN
fated prices just as has occurred in other in
dustries
It may he mentioned that Southern plant
ers were not financially injured by last years
decrease in yield the crop sold for $S1 oil 1913
more than the previous record breaking pro-
duction, and at the rate the current year opens
it is safe to predict another large return to
those growers that have even a moderate crop
Losses must have been severe in the recent
storm, and the crop is late in some sections, so