The Saint Paul globe., 1900-01-15
ADVANCE is DEFERRED
STOCK PRICES KEPT DOWN I'm A
WAY THAT is MORE OR LESS
PERPLEXING
BoER WAR STILL A FACTOR

Henry CIews Still Expresses HIS Be
Range of Values, but Gives Due
Weight to the Arguments Adj
vanced by the Bears-Purchase of
Good Railway Securities Advised.
NEW YORK, Jan. 14-Henry Clews'
weekly stock letter says: While the stock
market is In an lntrinsically sound con-
dition, the long desired advance has been
deferred for reasons that are somewhat
perplexing to the average operator. The
best explanation that can be offered is the
wide divergence of opinion respecting the
future course Of prices. Those who be-
lieve in a higher market argue that liqui-
dation has been severe; that stocks have
largely passed from weaker into stronger
hands; that prices are considerably be-
low the best Of 1899; that prosperity con-
tinues throughout the country without
signs Of abating: that the great railroad
systems and Industrial concerns are enjoy
Ing good earnings; that there is a good
demand for labor; that wages in the
that money Is easier; that the Bank Of
England rate has been reduced from
to per cent, and the Bank of France
from ~ to per cent; that funds are
coming to New York; that there is little
to fear from congress pending presi-
Dental election; in short, that a large
majority of the influences which control
prices are In favor of an advance.
On the other hand there are many, and
their number is increasing, who believe
recent liquidation was necessary and ben
eficial; that a great number OF buyers
were crippled by the December panic, and
now have neither the ability nor d1sposi-
ton to re-enter the market; that some
of the big cliques which control the sit
uation are not ready for an advance; that
the Transvaal war, with the prospect Of
long continuance and a large issue OF
consols, Is an effectual hindrance to any
bull campaign; that the old rates for
money will not be renewed; that the
higher level of interest rates Is against
maintaining fancy prices for securities
paying small returns; that the present
activity in business cannot continue much
longer without receiving set-backs; In
short that present and prospective pros
perity has been amply discounted, and
that period Of rest is required for re-
cuperation Of force and readjuStment of
values.
OF the two positions We have no hesi-
tation about expressing our belief in the
former, or in an ultimately higher mar
ket. There is, however, sufficient force in
the argument of the other side to COM
mand attention and induce caution. At
the moment there is little disposition to
buy stocks, and some fresh stimulus is
needed to attract the outside public.
Among the big leaders there is no appear
ance Of concerted action such as is nee
essary to any bull campaign; on the con-
trary, there are strong evidences that
some of them are working for lower
prices in order, of course, to secure a
large line of long stock.
The Boer war has become an important
Indirect influence upon the American
markets, inasmuch as an issue of consols,
which seems inevitable and which would
be considered desirable investments by
certain class of buyers abroad, would
certainly cause more or less selling of
high grade securities, American as well
as others. Little concern Is felt about
any prospective drain upon our gold sup
plies, for the reason that they are ample
to meet all probable requirements. A de-
cisive British victory might cause a sharp
rally In the stock market, but 1t should
not be overlooked that the British have
an exceedingly difficult task before them
In capturing Pretoria involving as it
must the cost of much life and treasure.
The position of the stock market has
perceptibly better look, due to the fact
that the backbone of tight money is
broken both at home and abroad: that
there is now no ground for apprehension,
and that the Boer victories are about at
an end. If they have not been able to
take Ladysmith and Kimberley, with
their advantages at their zenith in the
contest, 1t is pretty sure they will not do
so hereafter, because the British are very
apt to soon forge to the rear of the
Beers Notifications and move rapidly
on Pretoria, thereby compelling the Beers
to give up their present impregnable for
tifications and march home for the pro-
lection of their capital and the archives
of the government. The British certain
ly must have learned the stupidity of at
taclsing the Beers behind Qualifications
which they have been erecting for the
| last five years, and, as result of their
experience, wise and sagacious strategy
in conducting the war Is most likely to
be adopted. We may therefore expect
any moment to hear that the British have
circumvented the Boer army and are
| moving into the enemys country and
preparing to give battle, the result of
| which Is plain to be seen, so that British
| victories may be expected at no distant
! date With the Improvement in the
money situation and the South African
war giving promise of the opening of the
gold mines again at an early date, the
| heretofore prevailing distrust on the
! stock market and the weapons which
have been so effectively used by the bears
have been removed. The short sellers Of
stocks, therefore, will hereafter have to
contend with the present widespread
prosperity over this country, large rail
road earnings, easy money and British
| victories, which will be very difficult to
| overpower with prices at their present
| deprecated figures. This applies, Of
course, to the good, active railroad Sc
| curities and does not take into account
| industrial combination properties. I
therefore advise hereafter buying the
| good railroad securities on the weak
| spots for a substantial advance, which 1
| think the situation now warrants.