New-York tribune., 1900-10-18
coTToN-PRICEs AND PRODUCTS.

About a month ago, when middling upands
sold at IL cents, exceeding all records for ten
years, and option transactions were averaging
million bales daily, The Tribune urged con.
servatism in speculation and pointed out the
fact that there would not be the same demand
at prices more than 80 per cent higher than
last year. The question of supply was also
extremely uncertain at that time, and wild re-
ports of heavy losses in Texas were receiving
undeserved confidence. If only those who
manipulate prices were the sufferers it would
not arouse public interest or effort But un-
fortunately, there are many outsiders always
looking for an opportunity to make money, and
the rapid upward movement of cotton was at
tracting them in great numbers, especially as
it came at time when the stock market was
comparatively quiet They would have been
wiser to invest in railroad securities that were
known to be earning good dividends
The position of raw cotton and its relation
to manufactured goods will prove worthy of
study. A month ago raw cotton sold at the
price which was quoted In 1860 but ten stand
ard grades Of cotton goods averaged only 61.9
per cent of the price forty years ago, and this
does not include any allowance for the differ
ence in quality due to great improvements in
method of manufacture The high price of the
raw material started an advance in the goods
market, and the present price is $50 per cent
of the range in 1890 But in the last few days
there has been sharp drop in the price of raw
cotton making the ratio to 1860 ONLY 932 nor
cent These violent changes will undoubtedly
have influence on consumption. On January
1, 1899, the average price Of cotton goods was
499 per cent Of the quotation in 1860 and the
consumption of raw cotton increased to the
highest point ever touched during that vcor
with raw cotton also proportionatelv low. 53.4
per cent Of the price thirty-nine years previ-
Gus.
1t does not require wonderful discernment
TO perceive in the first place that sninning
cannot be highly profitable with prices of the
raw material proportionateIy so much higher
than the prices received for manufactured
goods. and in the second place the consump-
ton of goods must largely decrease even If the
quotation does not rise as rapidly as that of
raw cotton. These points are made clear nv
the one-third smaller takngs of Northern spn-
ners and exports in September of only 3s691S
bales, against 521719 last year. During Oc-
tober thus far shipments TO Great Britain have
slightly Increased, but other takings are no
larger, and a rule foreign mills are doing
little, except where Egyptian or Indian cotton
can be secured at lower figures.
Shipments OF goods TO the Far East arc
light, and all recent developments 90 N s,is
TAIN the statement made on this naqe ahdut
a month ago that there would be much disa m
polntment If it was expected that the consunp-
ton would continue at last years record break
ing total. with the range of prices On rar sd
vanced. The law is almost without excan+ion
IN economic study. Supply, demand and nrices
must influence each other. excessive nrices de-
creasing the demand. just as excessive sunnliAs
must bring lower values until the demand Is
increased sufficiently TO absorb the surplus As
to cotton, If this country alone were To be con-
sidered. the proposition might be moro copnu
Gated, because great prosperity would enable
the people to use large amount even at
90 TO 81 per cent higher prices; but when Ness
prosperous Europe, famine stricken India and
war distracted China are the prIncIpal cons1m-
ers' we cannot hope for the same amopnt Of
business under the new conditions
AS to the size Of the current cron II &c +oo
early to make predictions. Certain indications
are worthy of consideration however oro e
the effect of the high price, which makes II
possible to offer good wages TO pickers Tn
stead of cotton going to waste or standing IN
the helds until injured by the elements II Is
Deing picked the instant It ripens This is no
small matter as much cotton is commonlr lost
through the inability of planters 10 get II picked