The Indianapolis journal. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1867-1904, 1900-01-28
CONDITIONS in EUROPE
THE GENERAL SITUATION AT THE
CLOSE OF THE CENTURY.
By Hon. James Bryce. LII. D., Member
British Parliament, Author of ..The
American Commonwealth" Etc.

Copyright. 1900. by L. A Maynard.l
A lively controversy has been raging in
the English newspapers as to whether the
twentieth century has already begun,
will not begin till the first of January next.
Though there are a.. my active and resolute
combatants on both sides, the balance of
argument, as well as of numbers, seems to
be with those who maintain the latter
view. Thus one is justified in treating this
year that with which the nineteenth
century ends, and taking the occasion to
consider what are the sentiments and con-
ditions that surround the expiring months
Of the century, These are certainly very
different from those which would have been
predicted forty years ago. England. and,
to a large extent, Europe generally, was
then rejoicing in, or, at any rate, largely
moved by the hope that an era of general
peace and friendly feeling was approaching,
when wars would almost have been passed
eff the horizon. and a sense of the common
interest which all nations have in the
prevalence of good will and the develop
ment Of commerce would have assured the
continuance of friendly relations. This
hopeful view, though il felt to be
dangered by the existence of the Napoleonic
|
; lasted till the war Of A. D. 1866 had shown
that the risk of conflict between Austria
!. and Russia might at any moment become
acute. That war did not in itself promise
further disturbance. On the contrary, the
triumph of the principle of nationality in
Germany and the establishment of a strong
> power in Central Europe were by many OBJ
servers regarded as a guarantee of peace.
1870 that dispellcd the sangune anticipa-
tons of the optimists; and since then the
constant growth of huge armaments in the
four greatest states of Continental Europe
has been a source of increasing alarm.
. During the last twenty-seven years we have
had repeated panics, threatening the out
break of strife either between France and
Germany, or between Austria and Russia,
or between France and England, or be-
: tween England and Russia, with the prob
. ability that any strife between any two of
. these powers would involve the rest, as
. we'll as Italy also.
CLOUDS ON THE HORIZON.
At this moment the horizon, II not actu-
ally menacing, is yet heavily clouded.
France is, indeed, believed to be in a
; tranquil mood, and to have given host
! which everyone desires to make success,
. not only for the credit of the nation, but
in respect of the material benefits expected
from it. Yet We saw, six months ago,
how unstable is the political equilibrium
: in France, and how uncertain is the foot
ing of the present pacific ministry. Russia
. has also a strong economic motive for
peace. She needs money to complete the
Lotto IN ciha x-bi oh
she is engaged; and she may well feel that
no gain to be drawn from the embarrass-
ments of a rival would compensate for the
. loss involved in the interruption of that
. enterprise, which must immensely
strengthen her hold on the possessions in
the furthest Orient, and her influence al
ready great, over China. There is, more
over, great reason to believe that the
: young Car adheres to the humanitarian
: ideas which prompted him to the convok-
; ing of the Hague conference. Disquieting
rumors, however, sometimes reach US
from the borders of Afghanistan, where
Russia might were she so unfortunately
advised. stir up trouble. There is always
: a restless military party at work in the
: huge army she keeps on foot, and it needs
. all the force of tenacious monarch to
keep 1t in check.
AS regards England, apart altogether
from the need she feels in the prosecution
: of the present war, one serious change has
T come over her spirit. She finds, or thinks
: she finds, her army not adequate to the
: great and growing needs of her empire.
. | Hitherto she has been content to maintain
a regular force very small in proportion
to the vast citizen armies of the four con-
: tinental powers, and has rejoiced to think
: CONSUMPTION needless. She has, in fact, re-
+ lied upon her fleet, having had since the
Crimean war none but savage or semi
+ civilized enemies to meet in the field,
whether in India or somewhere on the
+ verge of her scattered colonies. Even
!. where the colonies are conterminous with
| the territories of a European civilized
power, as she is conterminous with
: France in Indo-China and West Africa.
? and with Germany in East and Southwest
+ Africa, she has been able TO trust to the
. strength of her fleet, since it would have
10 be by sea only that French or Ger
man troops could reach Africa or the
Orient, and the British fleet is, of course,
supreme on the ocean. Now, however,
} voices begin to- be raised demanding
large increase in the British army-an
{ increase WHICH, as many rear, must Involve
some kind Of consumption, though probably
in milder form than that which France
) or Germany employs. 1t is still too soon to
say whether this current of feeling will
} prevail, for something will depend on the
course which the present war takes. But it
needs mention a new and ominous phe-
nomenon in English policy, and one pretty
sure to be largely debated during the year
on which we are entering.
Germany, like England desires to remain
at peace with her neighbors. But Ger
many, like England, is embarking on
new policy, and a policy which may dmin-
ish one of the motives she has hitherto
had for remaining at peace. Her govern
ment is bent on largely strengthening her
navy; and the project, whether or no 1t
will ultimately be carried out on the great
scale which the Emperor is believed 10
desire, will certainly go The growing
prosperity of her trade enables her, with
out too severe effort, to crafty what is
in the present state of the world and with
her colonial predictions, a natural ambi-
ton. Thus matters relating to war bulk
largely in he Of