Virginian-pilot. (Norfolk, Va.) 1898-1911, 1900-02-09

Was 3.63A, 600 bales This is smaller than
any figure since 1891. In that year, on tho
corresponding date, tho worlds visible
supply OF cotton was 3,5i0,C00 bales. and
cotton sold at 9la cents per pounds in New
York. In the year previous, viz, 1890. the
visible supply for the corresponding week
was 100000 bales. and cotton sold in New
York ut 1924 cents per pound Since 1890
the worlds consumption OF cotton has III
creased fully Is per cent. Since 1891 the
estimated increase is about 10 per cont.
Tho figures may DO tabulatcd rs fol-
lows:
Worlds Visible Highest
Supply Price
1890 ........ 800. ...... 2,9G6,ooo IKE,
1871 3,OiO,OJO 9iMc.
1900 ...... 49,. ........ 3GSi,0OO -
Total
Spindles.
t Gn!fed states .'.. ...' " s Ssi.SCS
Orient ........ ........... 100, ID, 900
And their mathematical relation to each
other may be expressed by the following
equations, in tho first of which We have
compared the year 1880 with 1909, and in
the second the year 1891 with 1900:
Problem IL equals price to which cot
ton will go this year, assuming n relative
analogy OF present conditions with those
of 1890.
1 1SS-ssss 1 11s-ssst 5 1s:ss Z
Z.-122S
Problem IL price TO which cotton Will
go. assuming n relative analogy OF pres
ent conditions with those OF 1891.
loO-354o ll5-36sl 9M Z
Z-10Gi
In each of the above problems we have
taken the consumption for the first year
of the comparison ut leo per cent, and
assumed the present consumption to show
respectively is and 10 per cent. increase,
which estimates of increase are about
borne out by the increase in tho total
number of worlds spindlcs, as stated.
or course, such figures As these while
interesting. may be misleading, us the in
iluence bearing upon cotton are too many
and Their operation is too complex to adj
nit of calculation being made of them as
OF a mathematical problem. But the con-
clusion to which they point viz, that
cotton, in relation to tho present and pros
pective supply is still far too low. seems
to be indubltable. Meantime much dis
cussion has developed during the week
with regard TO the position OF the New
York market which. as compared with
Liverpool and the Southern markets, is
relatively lower than for many years past
Thus far this season 1t has been the
policy of nearly all exporters and carriers
of cotton to hedge their purchases of ac-
tual cotton, no matter where located. or
in which direction shipped, by sales of fu-
lures in New York. The effect OF this
volume of selling, attracted here largely
by the extreme latitude of our contracts
has been 10 keep the New York market
during nearly the whole season relatively
much lower than any other market In the
world, and naturally there has been no
accumulation of stock at all here. Grad
ually these sales of hedges. as they are
called have been concentrated in the
summer months, from May until August;
with the result. in our opinion. of creating
IL short interest in this market OF fully
one third OF the worlds present visible
supply. or say about 10000 bales For
the protection Of this short interest there
IS in warehouse In New York at present
only 5,230 bales. of which only 33.0lS bales
are certified" and Immediately avaliu BILE
for delivery on contracts. While these
hcdgcd sales represent complimentary
purchases elsewhere. and are for the most
part made against purchases either OF
futures in Liverpool or spot cotton in the
South. or in Liverpool. 1t is evident that
the longs are not an adequate protection
for the shorts ut the present disparity of
the New York market because cotton
cannot be brought here to FIJI the con-
tracts except at a very substantial loss.
The query. therefore. that presents it
SELF TO every intelligent student OF the
situation is. how long this situation VIII
OF the real facts shall ccmc to those who
have so boldly sold contracts here and re-
suit in IL spasm OF buying which will
bring New York moro correctly into rela-
ton with the primary and controlling
markets of supply and consumption?
AS far as we are able 10 determine. we
are of the opinion that no uttcmpt to cor
ncr the New York market Is likely TO be
made. We ourselves had occasion during
the present week most emphaticnlly 10
dscla:m any such intention, but it docs
seem 10 us that the natural and normal
opera ton of the law of supply and de-:
mand, will shortly bring about 81 very
radical adjustment OF the situation, and
such REIMBURSEMENT seems TO us immi-
ncnt So far as the crop movement Is
concerned 1t is larger and promises TO
continue for the next three or four weeks
considerably lnrgcr than last year; but
taking tho season as Il whole from now
on we do not expect that as much cotton
will como into sight as made Its appear
ance during the same time last year by