New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1900-06-28
OUTLOOK IN MIDDLE WEST.
BRYANITE PROFESSIONS OF CONFI-
DENCE NOT BASED ON FACTS.
THE REPUBLICAN PARTY STRONGER THAN
EVER IN ILLINOIS SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF A POLITICAL REACTION.

OF A POLITICAL REACTION.
Chicago. June 81 Overwhelmingly there
Is a display OF extraordinary confidence on the
part of the Fusionists Their preliminary prep
arations carried on jauntily as If they ex-
pected to nominate President McKinleys sue
cessor at Kansas City next week. There is a
good deal of noise. but. after all. the old cam
paigner detects false ring in It. Out of all
the fusionists cloud of claims and assertions
two facts beginning to be perceptible. They
have very little confidence that New-York can
be carried for Bryan, while their chief hope Of
success. if they have one. is based on presump-
tive changes to Organism in the Middle West
If Mr.. Bryan can carry any of the five
States OF Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan or
Minnesota it is generally thought by his fol-
lowers and many Republicans that he will carry
enough Of the others to win. On the other hand,
1t is obvious that If he fails to make inroads
here his defeat will be more disastrous in No
vember than II was in 1896 because the Oregon
elections make it almost positive that he will
lose the three Pacific Coast States. and with
them will certainly go Kansas.
There is not sign upon which to found
fusion hopes Of success in any one of these five
States Mckinley carried them by the following
pluralites: Ohio 47,497: Indiana 1881; lli-
nois. 142, 49S; Michigan, 56S6S; Minnesota, 3d.
S15 A cold analytical examination OF their
election returns since then by analogy with past
results serves to destroy every shred of material
evidence favorable to Mr.. Bryan's claims. If
he carries one of them, much as reduces
the Mckinley plurality of 1896, it will be against
all precedent we'll the probabilities.
THE RECORD OF ILLINOIS.
Illinois is apparently the State which the
fusionists count perhaps more definitely than
upon any Of the others. 1t therefore may be
he
political record of this State. Since the origin
of the Republican party nine times out Of a pos
sible eleven Illinois has thrown her electoral
vote to the Republican candidates for the PTesl-
dency. and only twice for the Democratic can
didates-for Buchanan IN 1856 and again, after
a lapse of twenty-six years, for Mr.. Cleveland in
1892. Illinois has been so-caled "rockribbed'
Republican State for forty years, both locally
and nationally Almost constantly her Gov
ernors, Legislatures and both Senators well
as majority Of Representatives have been
Republicans At long intervals there have been
exceptions but they are hardly remembered.
Eight years ago Mr.. Cleveland carried the
State by 2S,993 plurality, but he was neverthe-
less in a minority of over 81 900 votes. That
was the last Democratic victory in Illinois. De-
mocracy left a bad taste in the mouths of the
people of Lincoln and Grant, and the result Of
the revulslon was quick and drastic. In 1894,
after two years experience of Grover Cleveland,
the Republicans elected their State ticket by
123.427 plurality with a clear majority over all
of 44159. also securing twenty-one out OF the
twenty-five Congressman. In 1896 on this rising
tide of hostility to cheap money, Socialism. free
trade and political chaos generally, Mckinley
carried Illinois by 142, 1876 plurality Bryan.
and 126312 majority all. The Republican
State ticket was elected by pluralities ranging
from 1887 upward. In 1898 in a total aggre-
gate vote 2O3,5S less than that of 1896 the
lowest Republican plurality for the State ticket
43 100 and the highest $4,000 The aggre-
gate Republican plurality in the twenty-five
Congress districts was -Sreater-I2, T39-electing
fourteen of the twenty-five Representatives
In the Congressional vote, nationally the most
significant, the Republican majority all
was 54.43O, equal to Grants in 1872, the great
est Presidential majority thrown prior to that
for Mckinley in 1896
HOW CLEVELAND CARRIED THE STATE.
There is nothing in these statistics, either SUI
perfical internal. to engender a fear that the
State is on the of a sudden political somer-
sault into the arms Of Organism. which is
actly the same in 1900 as it was in 1896 In
fact, most convincing political object lesson Of
a Numerically opposite nature is conveyed by
this Illinois record. Republicanism was at low
tide in the ten years following 1892 eliminating
in Mr. Cleveland's triumph in 1892. Although
the Republicans continued to carry its elections
by narrow pluraHUes, the old time confidence
was gone; the party in Illinois appeared to be
in an actual state OF decay. During all that
period 1t was practically i'll a minority in the
State, and won simply through the divisions of
its enemies. True, in 1884 Blaines plurality was
1877. but his majority over all was no more
than precisely 1868 In 1886 the plurality for
the State ticket was 35,S16. but the aggregate
opposition majority was IS 49, In 1883 Pres-
dent Harrison had % 1913 plurality, but the
combined Democratic, Greenback and Prohibit
ton vote left the Republicans $500 in a minor
ity. The waning Republican strength disclosed
by these figures the result of factional strife,
portended the party's collapse in Illinois,
The inevitable result followed in 1890. the Oft
year of President HarrsOn's Administration
when for the first time in many years the
Democracy elected their State ticket by 9S4T
plurality, apparently putting the old party per
was blaZed in a perfectly visible and straight
path for Cleveland two years later. His victory
features. There was nothing mysterious or sin
gular about it, nor was it entirely unexpected.
1t was the natural sequence OF events. To pene-
trating minds 1t had been foreshadowed by the
gradually wasting Republican vitality of the
preceding years Indeed il was thought bY
many that Illinois had again become steadfast
democratic state But never there a greater
mistake In the very midst of Mr. CleveIand's
Administration the party again seized power in
Illinois with a large majority, and ever since as
the foregoing figures prove, 1t has remained
majority party. All that required was an
awakening.
REPUBLICANS STRONGER THAN EVER.
One is led to the conclusion that the Demo-
cratic victory of 1892 in Illinois had the effect
of clearing the political atmosphere and bring
ing the warning Republicans to their senses
What followed was not a spasmodic effort at
rehabilitation, an expiring flash of light Never
was the party so strong in the State as it has
been since 1894. Nor is there yet any sign of
weakening For instance how distinctly diff
ferent from Mr.. Cleveland's off year experience
OF 1914 was the Illinois election Of 1898 the
off year of the Mckinley Administration, when
IN campaign on National issues. the Repubi-