Evening star., 1900-10-17
Review of the States East of the Mis-
sissippi.
THOSE CONSIDERED DOUBTFUL
Democratic Party is Hoping Against
Hope.>
WHAT BRYAN MUST GAIN
acial Correspondence of The Evening Star.

KANSAS CITY, Mo, October H. 1880.
Having obtained through careful investi-
CATION an approximate idea as to the po-
litical probabilities in the nineteen states
west of the Mississippi river, it becomes
important to apply these results to the sit
uation east of the Mississippi in estimat-
ing the probable outcome of the national
election.
1t has been demonstrated that whereas
President Mckinley received in 1885 81
electoral votes in these 10 states and Mr..
Bryan 81, the returns in 1900 will in all
probability show at least 10 electoral votes
for Mckinley, and consequently not over
- for Mr.. Bryan. Applying these figures
to the results east of the Mississippi in
1896 Mckinley would have received total
of 2a3 electoral votes and Bryan 15i, the
vote standing in 1S96, 271 for Mckinley and
176 for Bryan.
With the changes that have come about
in the political situation, however will
come readjustment of the electoral vote
east of the Mississippi as well as to the
west and it now seems probable that
whereas Bryan will lose in the west, both
in electoral and popular votes, ne Will gam
in the east In both particulars. On basis
of the vote west of the Mississippi as esu-
mated Bryan must gain 40 electoral votes,
east of the Mississippi over and above what
he had in 1896 to be elected in 1900
Doubtful States.
The states which may be left out of con-
sideration in figuring upon results include
all OF those east of the Mississippi with the
exception of Michigan. Illinois, Indiana.
Kentucky West Virginia and Maryland.
All of these states gave decided majorities
for the republican electoral ticket in 1896,
with the exception of Kentucky, which
gave one vote for Mr.. Bryan.
The tremendous task which lies before
the democrats to elect candidate is shown
by the fact that they must carry a.. ex-
cept West Virginia or Maryland to be sue
cessful. These alleged doubtful states con-
troll 70 electoral votes, and as shown at
least 30 are necessary over and above those
secured by the democrats in 1896 to Sc
cure the necessary 224 electoral votes.
New York has not been considered in this
estimate as a doubtful state, and there is
little ground for believing that IL is doubt
full The democrats may POSSIBLY poll a
they did in 1895, but it seems probable,
judging from careful estimates made of the
situation, that the state will more than
neutraze the democratic increase in the
city What is said to be a careful poll OF
New York gives President Mckinley ma
jority ranging between 5000 and 10000.
1t is only in Difference to the assertions OF
leading democrats that Michigan, illinois
and West Virginia may be considered
doubtful Mr.. Bryan carry Indiana,
Kentucky Maryland and perhaps one other
small eastern state which went for the re-
publican ticket in 1896 and yet fan far
short of the necessary number of electoral
votes. If the democrats had any basis for
their hopes in New York the situation would
change materially. the thirty-six cleo
toraI votes of the empire state would OFF,
set considerable loss in other places. Even
allowing that the predictions to Kansas
being republican are in error, 1t is evil
dent that il would take a democratic land
slide east of the Mississippi to carry the
democratic party into power.
The Middle West.
1t will be noticed that the alleged doubt
ful territory this year lies in a compare
lively solid block in the middle west. Com
mencing with Maryland on the east and
running through adjacent states by the way
Of West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana, Hi
nois and Michigan, it is in these states
that the great political battle is being
fought A large part OF the territory COW
cred by these states is Inhabited by people
of like character, occupations and affected
by the same climatic conditions. 1t has been
the history of past political campaigns that
where one state in this territory was strong
ly affected by certain events and argu-
ments based thereon. that the influence was
general throughout that territory, and in
its results politically produced what is gen
orally termed a tidal wave, which carried
a large part of this territory into the same
political column.
Hoping Against Hope.
The dispassionate observer. after careful
study of the political conditions through
out the United States, hardly fail of a
realization that the democratic party is
hoping against hope when ii assumes con-
ident attitude toward the outcome of the
present election. Great revolutions in po-
lltical sentiment have taken place in the
United States and worked marvellous
changes on the political map, but these
changes have been brought about by tre-
mendous issues which deeply concern each
and every one of the voters. There are nc
such issues in this campaign presented by
the democrats. Up to the first of October
the lack of interest in politics and in the
election, then less than six weeks distant.
was most remarkable and was free.y com
mented upon by those familiar with pre-
vious presidential campaigns. 1t has taken
the combined efforts Of the leaders of both
partise 10 stir the voters to a realization
that a presidential contest at hand,
and that being waged upon the
party in power
The apathy of the first part of the pres
ent campaign, ana which even prevails now
in many sections removed from the infiu-
ence OF committee workers. has this yea,
been due unquestionably To a general will
| lngness TO let well enough alone and not
disturb present commercial or political con
ditiCnS. The danger which arises from such
an attitude the part Of the people is 3
possible lack IF interest in the election it
self and consequently light vote on tn,
part of those not keenly alive to the dan
gers which threaten party in power.
1t takes an optimistic and slillful mathe
maticfan consumed with loyalty to the dem
ocratic cause 70 figure out the possible elec
| ton of Mr. Bryan this year State after
| state must be given TO him without ap
| parent warrant. and If these prophets are
| justified in the returns when they are final
| ly tabulated II will not be because of thei,
! superior logic or second sight, for there Il
Aat hiun he IN l,.,;,~
| tentiUn.
| What Bryan Must Gain.
| The final loss to Mr.. Bryan in the west al
! compared with 1896 may not be as great a.
1 II is now believed it will be- but it will b,
4 sufficient to make 1t necessary to gain II
/ the east far more than he would have hat
| To gain in 1896 to have been elected. Mr.
4 Bryan IS now making in his speeches a spe