Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1900-09-01
A GUESSING CONTEST
OFFICIALS OF THE CENSUS OFFICE
TO PARTICIPATE.
Prize to Go to the One Coming Near
est to the Actual Population of
the United States.

Officials Of the census bureau have ar
ranged a guessing match, the man who
succeeds nearest in estimating the popula-
ton of the United States according to the
twelfth census to receive handsome prize,
which Is to be presented to him at ban
quet to be arranged for the occasion
This guessing match was originated by
Mr.. Herman Hollerith, manager for the
company which furnishes the tabulating
machines for the census work There have
been invited to take part in this work all
those officials of the bureau who attended
the dinner given about two months ago to
Director Merriam, MIR. Carroll D. Wright
and Mr.. Robert p Porter The plan of
the contest is to have these gentlemen send
their gueSses Of the population of the Unit ed
States In 1900. together with 81, which
money VIII be used to purchase suitable
grit Tor the successful contestant At the
banquet, those who put in guesses will tell
now they made their estimates One Of the
contestants proposes to consult a medium
In order to find out by means of the Shades
OF his friends what the official count will
snow. others are working out more or
less elaborate theories. based on returns
SO far received, in order to arrive at the
proper figure.
Mr.. Hunts Suggestion.
Mr. VIM. c. Hunt, chief statistician in
charge OF the population division. when in
Vited to take part in the contest made GER
tain suggestions which have been sent to
all contestants. Mr.. Hunts letter follows:
1 mink there Is likely to be some con-
fusion In the matter unless you state spe-
cif1cally what Is meant by the population Of
the United States at the atsveIfth census
Under the law, which specifically provides
Tor the enumeration Of not only the states
and territories of the United States mt
thn Hav
think that definite statement should be
made that the official population of the
United States will include not only The
population of the states and organized tar
ritories, but also the population of Alaska
ana the Hawaiian Islands, and, in addition.
the population of the Indian territory and
indian reservations. That is to say the
population at the present census will be
comparable with the population in 1870
made up to include not only the population
OF the states and organized territories
l62 622' ZOO; but also that of the Indian ter
ritory and Indian reservations (325 464)
that of Alaska (32, 052), making g. s79 1866
together with the population of the Ha-
walian Islands, which, according to the
latest census QS96), was 109 02O
The population to be included in the pres
ent census can be stated as it appeared at
the latest census as follows: States and
organized territories. go 500, $50; Indians and
reservations, 325. AGA: Alaska, 32.O52: Ha-
Waiian Islands QS96), 10000. Total, 49,
OSS, 1856.
Interest in the Outcome,
All over the country there is a great deal
OF interest being taken in the probable out
come of the twelfth census, and guessing
matches are becoming very popular. AS a
rule the guesses on the population of the
country range from seventy to eighty-flve
millions. Those who are making a study of
population statistics in order to guess sue
cessfully are consulting records of immigra-
ton bureaus and vital statistics as kept in
many communities OF course, the immi-
grafton during the past ten years was not
equal to that between 1880 and 1890 and
many of those who are making estimates
are inclined to calculate on a lower birth
rate than prevailed between 1880 and 1890
while they place the mortality rates rather
lower for the last decade than for the ten
years that preceded 1t. The statistics of
cities give very little basis for guessing the
population of the country at large.
The intricacies of a guess on the twelfth
census are many. and they are being de-
veloped at rapid rate by officials Of the
census bureau, who are striving to ascer-
tain In advance exactly what the popula ton