The Seattle post-intelligencer. [volume] (Seattle, Wash. Terr. [Wash.]) 1888-1914, 1900-05-26

With I'VE men drawing against me ! felt
pretty weak in the knees. although. ac-
corcins to your theory, had 4 cinch. as
had the best hand TO start with. II was a
big pot. and thought could see about s.
in it for me IL could catch another ace.
They drew all manner o. cards. from one
TO three. and all looked pleasant, especial
~ the school teacher, who took three
cards. I didn't improve my aces and it
was my first bet. Now, according 10 your
probabilities. what should / do; bet the
limit or chip along?''
''The probabilities are that with five men
playing the limit to draw cards against
openers, your aces were not worth even a
chip, and should have shown my openers
and knocked on the table"
Il thought you said just now that the
best hand on the start ought TO win out"
But the probabilities against improve
ment are only 81 to !, and there were five
men drawing. so at least two of them must
have bettered."
That's assuming they all. had pairs 20
go with. Are there no odds against such
thing as five men having pairs and none
Of them openers?"
ut certainly does look funny think
the school teacher must have overlooked
something"
"well. didn't overlook anything. There
were seven half-crown antics and six ten
shilling raises on the table. about SIS 50 Is
OF which was mine. What are the odds
against me II put up shilling more. just
to represent and see what the others will
do7"
1T is a shilling thrown away. sure.
That is just how you fellows lose money.
4 quarter is not much, but II you do that
kind OF thing all the time 1t coon mounts
UP. and II you play poker Cor a year the
probabilities are you will lose several hun
dred quarters by such plays"
"Well. I didn't bet any quarter L
That's where you showed your good
sense and saved money"
Il didn't bet any quarter. but put good
face on and bet the limit
Great Scott, The idea OF attempting a
bluff under syeA circumstances Why, the
probabilities are that at least two men
would call and that one would raise. You
would save a lot OF money II you would
only study the percentages of the game.
What happened. anyway
"All FIVE men called me-
Holy smokel Didn't tell your The
probabilities are that there were at least
two fiushes and that the others had two
pairs or small triplets."
IF those are the probabilities OF the case
why didn't some OF them raise me7''
That's So" said Sam, scratching his
head 1T was certainly remarkable that
no one raised. They must have been a
school teacher and the engineer. The 9TH
ers probably did not understand their per-
centage OF advantage and were waiting
for some one else to play their hands
for them by raising back again"
We'll, you will see presently that the
play was all right and no one forgot any
thing What l want TO know is, what do
your probabilities say that those Ave fell
lows should have held to stand the limit
to draw cards and then to call limit bet
to see IL they couldn't beat openers"
Give il up. The only probability I can
think of II that they did not understand
the principles of the game or did not re-
alize the probabilities that there must be
one or two big hands out. waiting for a
raise. what won the pot on the show
down."
MY pair of aces"
Sam could not speak for establishment
for a moment, and then he laughed as IL
he saw the Joke. what chumps they
were to call YOU when they could not
even beat openers"
But they could beat openers, every
one Of them. although they could not beat
my aces. The school ,eacher, who was
the first 10 say had passed on jacks and
on the draw he had got an ace and a
king with them. He had figured that II /
was opening on Jacks he could probably
beat me with his side cards. He said
something about the mathematical ex-
pectation of his hand, being the first to
say after had opened the pot. and his
theory was that we would be the only
two in, and that after all the others had
come in and drawn he had 10 call me.
as his percentage of the money in the
pot was In his favor, something of that
kind. The engineer. second man, had also
passed on Jacks and had drawn In an ace
with them and he had stayed on the same
mathematical figuring of probabilities as
the school teacher. The fellow beyond
him had drawn to a four flush and got a
pair Of kings, which ne thought good
enough TO call on as no one was raising
Each OF the other two chaps had made
queens, the first one by drawing To an
inside straight queen high, which he
hoped TO fill with a jack. not knowing that
all the Jacks were held up by the school
teacher and the engineer. The ether be-
ing the last man in, was coaxed by the
size OF the pot and had drawn to a king
and queen OF clubs. So you see that al
though there were five men calling ma
and all Of them could beat openers. none
OF them could beat aces. and pulled
about SIS out of that pot on a hand which
YOU would have laid down, just because
you know so much about probabilities. q"
That is the most improbable hand I
ever heard Of"
why, you said awhile ago that the best
hand on the go-in should be the best on
the showdown. and my experience proves
YOU are dead right: and now you say the
thing that is according 20 the law OF prob
abilities IS the most improbable thing you
ever heard of"
IAN / can say now ia that the drinks
are on me. New York Sun.