New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1900-01-16
DEMANDS THAT ARE NOT PERMANENT.

1t is as important for public prosperity that
future demands for products should not be over
estimated as that they should be fully anticipated
and met The speculative world has peculiar
standard of its own. When stocks are hunting
buyers there is a prevalent feeling that man
Is an enemy of public prosperity who remem-
beers and reminds anybody that existing bust
ness demands are not necessarily perpetual
Equally the man is public enemy, when the
whole Street is trying to buy and therefore to
depress stocks, If he reminds the people tnat
the great de hands of times past will with IN
creasRg population be some day exceeded. But
productive industry and legitimate trade stand
in constant need of a veracious and two sided
view Of the future which ignores neither the
tendency toward expansion nor the tendency
toward contraction of demand
The business world has to rely upon three
distinct kinds of demand for products and goods,
The perpetual demand for consumption is only
one, and, though it varies considerably with the
increase or decrease in the purchasing power
Of the people, is the more nearly constant.
This country is so prosperous that even in the
worst of times few die of starvation, and the
number of people who much reduce their con-
sumption of food is relatively small. A larger
number reduce materially their purchases Of
clothing and household equipments in bad times,
but even of these the decrease in consumption
is relatively small. 1t is fact, also, If not en-
tirely creditable fact, that the consumption OF
liquors and tobacco and the demand for amuse-
ments and luxuries diminished IN bad times
much less than the purchasing power Of the
people.
There is a second kind of demand which is
altogether spasmodic. When retail dealers have
found consumption reduced and stocks left on
their hands they apt to reduce materially
the stocks they order and calculate to carry.
The wholesale merchants and jobbers feel the
effect of this shrinkage and curtail accordingly
the stocks they calculate to carry In anticipation
of coming demands. Thus there results
gradual but in the aggregate large decrease in
quantities Of products required for consumption,
which decrease continues until there are seen
prospects of better times. Then there comes a
sudden and large demand for replenishment of
stocks, which may increase orders for time
by nearly or quite one-half. But 1t Is a mis-
take to forget that such an increase of demand
is necessarily temporary.
A third kind of demand is of almost unlimited
quantity in any particular department and pos
sibly in many at once, but comes only on
large scale at intervals Of some years. 1t is
for expansion and reconstruction of manufacture
ing, transporting and trading equipments, in
Guiding buildings of all sorts, machinery, yes
sells, rails and cars, tools and furniture and
hardware, and the materials required for the
general adoption and relief of new inventions
and devices. When of good times opens
after a long period of depression this kind of
demand appears at its maximum and extends
to the greatest variety of products. But such
expansion is of necessity limited. The need Of
new buildings for residences, trade or industrial
purposes has its limit. The demand for new
railroads and larger equipment on old roads is
calculated to anticipate some growth in bust
ness. and stops when such calculations are met
The disposition Of capital to take up new inven-
lions and devices and provide for their general
adoption comes when large amounts of capital
seeking employment have accumulated but
passes when the accumulation has vanished
| 1t is not necessary to add that a considerable
part Of the demand which has crowded indus
/ tries so greatly during the last year is of the