Virginian-pilot. (Norfolk, Va.) 1898-1911, 1900-01-11

necton an aphorism of tho late Josh
billings, to the effect that "a wise man
changes his opinion: q fool. never would
not seem to DO inappropriate. Treating tho
question seriously, however. we desire to
say that our advice to our friends to ac-
Sept f1Sc for spot cotton was based upon
tho Following view of the situation: Spec
uiauVc markets as u rule act before tho
lact ana not ofterward. Tho size of tho
crop Is not question admitting of any
very extended debate. Mr.. Shepperson, in
inc preface to his recent Issue of Got
ton Facts" says that his advices ,ndl-
cafe commercial crop of 100000 bales
or which 100000 bales is tho remnant re-
naming from last year. Messrs. r. II.
"aisoh & Co., VIII on tho 12th instant. so
IL is stated, issue their annual crop es-
innate wffeh In the past has been more
neariy correct than almost any other pub
iished. Current rumor puts their figures
at 100000 bales. our own estimate of tho
crop. published some time since, was
$4,000. We have not yet expressed any
opinion increasing this estimate Up to
nearly the end OF December, the consum-
Ing portion of tho cotton world had Wig
orously combatted these crop estimates
but toward the end OF December, Liver
pool showed Il manifest disposition to ac-
ccpt them. Meantime, despite the extra
ordinarily small movement during Decem-
Der. fully sustaining the short crop views,
the New York market as pointed out In
our previous circular was, on the third
of January ten points lower for March
contracts than on the 9th OF November
Earlier in tho season we had believed
and expressed the opinion that relation of
supply and demand would justify at
least s cents per posind in New York.
March contracts sold within So points OF
this figure. Since that time. however.
England has become involved in u war,
the far-reaching results of which We had
not anticipated, and speculation through
out America las received u shock which
| eliminated IN the monetary panic of Dc
ccmbcr 18th. from which it will be slow
to recover. For these rca.sons we felt con-
strained TO modify our previous opinion
and rather than encourage our clientele
to hold cotton through n weary period of
waiting, ut the end Of which they might
not perhaps receive as much for It as 1t
was Than worth. we determined TO advise
them to sell.
Another feature OF the case, which the
sagarious merchant cannot ignore, is the
cccnom,c law which in physics is OK
pressed by the statement that Mature
hors vacuum" The immincnce OF
vacuum In the supply OF any great staple
commodity, once recognized, influences
are Immediately set at work that will ul-
timately have tho effect OF correcting
such IL situation. Had cotton gone TO S
cents per pound IN the South before the
period for planting the next crop. tho cf-
feet would undoubtedly have been still
greater congestion OF stocks than that
which now exists. and an encouragement
| to increase next years acreage which
would later ON in the season have given
the bears lever of great power with
| which to wrest such an accumulation
| away from holders ana no doubt II would
i:ave been so used. y crop of II 600 600
C00.Go: cron OF 100000 bales mt &c.
| yields $S5.COO.c00 In other words. the
| smaller crop rays the South $4,000 600
more. without making any allowance for
( the increased expenditure involved in the
production of the larger crop. TO carry
| things 10 extremes = never our policy, or,
, in our opinion. good Judgment or bust
! ness. We have believed and we repeat
/ the opinion, that where TIC. or there
abouis can be obtaiod for middlng cot
| ton in the South, the holders OF the ar
| t!cle VIII consult their own best inter
csts. Individually. and tho interests OF
| their section as Il whole by the accept
ance OF this price. and that We nave cx-
/ pressed this opinion does not seem TO us
to have been discrcditnblc or to have
made US lcgtimatcly the object of the
criticism which we have received 1t