New-York tribune., 1900-07-01
fiuanuaL.
The Financial World


'hs market had closed on the previous Sa.,,r5, =.
was reared that serious trouble was i-,na-1f-,.,
me uay, however, passed quietly and tba -
Ket at the close showed some inDrove-,en+ a.
HsureS and much Improvement in tone r,,,,h.
ieSs the preparations which had been roada -
guard against severe selling rnovar,ar. -,
one develop, had the effect os vva-dt-s, q. =.
Inc near traders took advantage oF the go
or feeiing 10 buy in shorts support IN sor, - =
ieaolhs STOCKS was given by a few proDnfnan+
houses. and commission house Iiouida+1o- -aa--,
go, 'ne HISt hour. So the day passed. Since
then the market, while all the time ya-,, -,
has been steady to strong: and in 60, - -
where the short interest was avoss.f--. -
nave been sharp advances Yestardav.s oIo-1
was quiet The bank statement. which sbo,-a5
HO important changes from the prevfous MI.
had apparently no effect on the trading r
deed the days business altogether was aIr,o..
nominal almost
Cool consideration OF the state OF the r,on.v
market and Of the range OF prices in +ba s.o.I-
market leads to the conclusion that -ba a.. a.
100 easy and the other too low. 10 permit 80
1ioHS On tne bear side TO have more than a
seiS HiLiIeo success Here and there a stocle
may be struck hard and then r.5a1,,. :
Brooklyn Traction. for exaro7ls. t,,. a'
majority or stocks are already so ras- -.
ground that there is noe much roo-, -. =
them to fall-unless the ground sbo,,1. -
away through changes in conditions ,vb,os, -.
not In evidence now To put II another v,s,, -,
market has discounted the known unFavorah1.
conditions We ought TO have a n1rtb.- a
vance The technical position logtcauv :.
quires more than we have had since last Ma
day. for there is still a considerable sbo-+ -
terest outstanding AZ
There are three topics OF discussion "a bs,-,r.
on the future OF the market First tbA e,-.t-s
Si'u0tion; second. the crops; third the political
.anp@is'' IN respect to the first. since South
Africa has dropped out OF public atte,t,oD
China is the point Of interest T. .ba-. -
nothing depressing bull speculation NOR. -
the Eastern troubles. we should soon a. +L,.
speculation resumed with vigor. for II viii re-
Quire only a very short time now to uttar1,
sweep away Chinese military opposition: and tba
union Of all the Powers in the work ses,r-.s
harmony Of action among them In the sub
seQuent settlements. There will be a so-+ -
worlds conference on the subject and the end
Will be that China viii be opened to the ,ra4a
OF the world to far greater extent than I, has
ever been before. Therefore, one may say that
the China business cuts comparatively small
figure in speculation. however large II NAV
loom in the news dispatches
As TO the crops, the crop experts and tbs ma,
In the trade seem to be uniting in q general
estimate that the total wheat crop this vsa-
will be about 100 millions below last wear T.
was then 500 millions and will be 45O this wear
1t is needless to add that these figures are only
approximations; but all crop estimates are no
more than guesses. The loss IS in the spring
wheat belt. and the big wheat yield this wear
is in the territory OF the Southwestern roads.
II the present market price OF wheat holds. tha
wheat raisers of the country as a body will Be
little worse of than they were last year as
they will sell on the basis Of so cent wheat as
against 60 But there Will be a very unequal
distribution Of the returns.
The other crop problem Is the corn This Is
even more important than wheat If there
should be a disaster to the corn crop. from any
cause, the quicker the present holder OF stocks
got out Of them. the better he would bel OF. \
corn crop failure would make the going level
OF prices look very high indeed. There is, how
ever, indication at this time OF any trouble
in the corn belt. On the contrary, the reports
from nearly all points OF It say the corn looks
we'll Definite results cann1t be known for
sixty days yet Sixty days is quite a long period
in Wall Street. All sorts Of things may happen
in that time; hence any present speculation on
corn prospects should be rather or the bull side.
since all we know Of the crop now is favorable.
The political factor in speculation is something
that will be used on the bear side TO the utmost
possible limit The bear trader to-day VIII tell
you that, while he thinks the market may go q
little higher for week or two, panic and dis
aster lie beyond in the certain election Of Bryan
because the banks and the crust companies viii
call loans wholesale when they see the senti-
ment of the country tending irresisJibly 70
Bryans election. Now it may occur to any one
who had faith in the country. that If public
sentiment did indeed move so trresistibly in
favor OF the Kansas City nominee, It must be
because there was deep public discomfort with
the present Administration; and that the vast
majority OF people believed the country would
be benefited by changing it. Thes would want
the change not with the idea OF injury. but OF
improvement. Hence, il the sentiment in favor
of Bryan were to become SO Overwhelmingly
conspicuous. presidents OF banks and trust COM
panies might reflect that perhaps public senti-
ment was right after aII-and hence not call
loans.
However. there are some people who do not
for one moment expect to see public sentiment
tending irresistibly towards Bryan. They expect
to see the sound and conservative element IN the
Democratic party step aside. and let Mr.. Bryan
have his own way at Kansas City TO the fullest
possible extent; they expect 10 see him allowed
without a word OF dissent 10 write his own plat
form. with 16 TO 1 or any other number in ii he
pleases; put finance. or trusts. or Imperialism
first. last or in the middle just as he wants; 70
name his own running mate. either from East
West or any other point OF the compass; and
then when he has fixed up everything to suit
himself exactly-they will step little further
aside and see il he can elect himself
That is the situation II the country wants
Mr. Bryan II will have the chance TO take him
in toto and to the extreme; if it doesn't. this
election removes him from the political arena
Coming back to particulars. = may be noted