Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1900-11-05
THE OHIO OUTLOOK
OF THE PROBABLE PLU-
RALITY FOR MCKINLEY.
Republicans VIII Lose in the Cities,
but VIII Gain Largely In
Country Districts.

Special Dispatch to The Evening Star.
COLUMBUS, Ohio, November 5-Judg-
ing from the registration and the interest
manifested In the election in the closing
weeks of the campaign, about one million
votes will be polled in Ohio tomorrow. OF
these, probably less than 10000 will be
cast for minor party candidates. They, of
course, need not be considered In estimating
the result No intelligent person here ex-
poets that Bryan will carry the state,
though the democrats claim that they have
a chance to win, and point to the election
Of 1892, the campaign preceding which re-
sembled the present one somewhat. The
republicans are confident and the plurality
for Mckinley Is variousy expressed. Few
republican politicians place 1t below 5000,
and the most of them go far above that
figure Some even put 1t at 100000.
When the republicans are asked to eX-
plain how they figure it,, they are generally
found to be getting their results by intui-
ton. and basing their confidence upon the
fact that Ohio is pretty reliable republic
can state in national elections. There are
some uncertainties in the Ohio situation
which will bear study. or course, a large
registration and other indications that the
voters are interested are, in strong re-
publican state, favorable to the republic
cans.
Will Lose in the Cities.
But In the cities. where the registration
is required by law, the republicans are like
ly to lose severely They concede that their
vote in the cities is likely to show a loss
from that of 1896. There are many rea-
sons for this. In the first place. it is in the
cities that S. NJ. Jones, the golden rule
mayor of Toledo, who has taken the stump
for Bryan. has following. 1t seems rea-
sonable to suppose that he will lead some
of his republican followers to vote for
Bryan. Cleveland is involved in the re-
publican fractional fight in the twentieth
congressional district, in which Hanna and
anti-Hanna lines are being pretty sharply
drawn. 1t is bad mix-up, and seems
likely now to result in the defeat Of ]. a.
Beidler, the regular republican nominee for
Congress, in that strong republican district.
Governor Nash said to The Star correspond
ent, after campaign trip through the dis
trict, that he could not see how it was
possible to elect Beidler In the present sit
uation. On the whole. the city of Cleveland
cannot be counted upon for more than 1000
or 5000 republican plurality. In 1896 it
gave Mckinley over 1000 plurality
In Toledo Mckinley had over 5000 p'u-
rality four years ago. 1t Is likely that
duce it this year. Cincinnati gave 1900
republican plurality in 1896. The registra-
ton is very light there this year-iight,
compared with other cities, and only atout
1000 in excess of that of 1896. The Iepub-
licans are not claiming more than 1l,W0
plurality there this year. In this city the
involving of republican municipal admin
istratfon in a series of scandals has dis
gusted the party and demoraliZed the or
ganizatiOn. 1t seems hardly possible, under
the circumstances, that the remarkably
high mark set by Mckinley here in 1S9G-a
plurality exceeding 1900 - can be reached
now.
Increase in the Rural Districts.
But to meet this threatened loss Of from
5000 to $4,000 votes in the cities, the re-
pubiicans can reasonably expect an in
crease of from 10000 to 5000 votes in the
country district. The trend of change OF
political sentiment among the farmers Of
Ohio has been steadily in favor of the re-
publicans since better times came after
1896. Governor Nash secured over 2o.UOO
plurality last fall in rural districts that
Bryan carried. In view of this, it would
seem that rural Ohio would save the state
for Mckinley, even though urban Ohio
should go for Bryan. In any event, 1t
seems quite certain that the plurality given
Mckinley In this state in 1861 00O-wiu
be increased to some extent this year-hoW
much depending upon the extent that the
influences adverse to the republicans, at
work in the cities, will affect their inter-
ests. The probability Is that the state will
give a republican plurality of from $1,000
to 10000
The republicans are sure to elect fourteen
representatives. and the democrats four.
Three districts-the third, twelfth and
twentieth-are in doubt.