The daily morning journal and courier., 1900-07-21
THE WAR IN CHINA.
ITS INFE UENCE ON THE TEA MA R-
 KET.
Great Scarcity More Than Probable Prices Rapidly Advancins-Will Sh' . ma Lose Her Tea Trade?


 There has recently been a marked in- crease in the value of tea, some grades 4 three weeks Various causes have beer assigned for the higher prices, one be- ing that a combination had been formed by the large importers to take advantage of the war in China as an excuse to force prices up. This as reason for the advancing market may be dismissed in very few words. At this time of the year importers have lit tie or none of last seasons tea on hand immediately offset by corresponding advance in China, importers would lose rather than gain by premature rise in values here. After they have bought their stocks, however high markets are to the advantage of the importer, and the present rise is probably but the pre- cursor of much greater one in the fall of this year, is due to legitimate condi- tions and in no sense brought about by a combination or other unnatural caus- es.
 Some advance was to be expected at this time, as values of tea were far be- low what they should have been forced there by the hand to mouth policy on the part of buyers, adopted ever since the war tax of 10 cents per pound was imposed on tea.
 In addition to this prices of tea have naturally advanced on account of pos sible scarcity caused by the disturb ance to the China trade, which Is al- most inevitable now that state of war practically exists in that country.
 According to recent information, the troubles are spreading to the south of China and are reported to have reached the provinces of Hupe and Human, in the former of which the important tea x center, Hankow, is situated. Even be- fore this they have had their effect on buyers who must go from the coast to the interior to make their purchases, and upon the native bankers, who ad- ' vance the money for that purpose The latter, it Is stated, stopped doing busi- ness some time ago.
 In order to move the crop it Is the custom for the middlemen, who buy from the producers, to go into the inte- Tior with cash and this in the present unsettled state of the country is very \ hazardous, and the action of native bankers, who finance this branch of the trade, is therefore only natural and to be expected.
 Were European and American tea houses willing to send their own native agents with the large sums of money required for such operations the proba- bilities would be strongly in favor of their being murdered and robbed or of their taking advantage of the situation and making off with the funds It will thus be seen that the probabilities are that very much less tea will reach the coast
 It becomes useful to compare the quantity of tea out of the current sea- son's crop that up to now has reached the coast with last seasons export.
 Annoy reports only about 21 per cent. of Oolong tea having arrived. Shang-' z hai as yet can account for but 36 per ce..t. of the full supply of "Pinsuey" and only 9 per cent. of Country Greens. Foochow returns have not been re- celved but certainly less than half of the crop is safe as yet.
 Japan ports may be left out of con- sideration so far as the war in the east is concerned, but it is known that the < crop is small this year and prices ruling higher than for years before
 Now, regarding the stocks available in the United States. On July i the stock of all teas at the principal ports of entry in this country (San Francis co, Chicago and New York) amounted to under twenty eight million pounds or about four and .one-half months supply. With shortage of China sup plies, and the known fact that there is this season short crop in Japan, the only other source of supply is from the British East Indies (Ceylon and India), whose teas are already favorably known in this market, and are being used in increasing quantities annually. But though these countries produce an enormous quantity of tea, and it has been feared production has more than overtaken consumption, there is no large stock to draw upon.
 The teas of Ceylon and India go mostly to Great Britain, Australia, Russia and Canada, and a certain quantity comes here, but the stock in Great Britain is equal only to about two months consumption in that cotin- try and if the usual supply of China tea is not forthcoming all the countries named must try to supply their deti- ciency from Ceylon and India. The price of these teas Is already advan- cling, and must go still higher when it is certain that there will be shortage of China supplies.
 There is a good deal of China green tea used in this country, and so far Ceyon and India have manufactured only of the black variety but the plant CTS of those countries are now prepar- ing to make green teas on a large scale, and one of the unlocked for re- cults of the Boxer uprising and the mis- rule of the Chinese government may be the loss to China of the balance of the tea trade of which at one time 1t had the monopoly. Ceylon and India have already pushed China tea out of the British market, have made themselves felt in Russia, Canada, the United States and other countries, for when this tea once gets a foothold it stays by reason of it's vastly superior quality. Should it be forced into general use in the United States this season the China grower may finally lose his last strong