The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1900-03-11
THE MATURITY or THE CHANCE.
Its Application to Life characterization
Who Have Profited by II.


Who Have Profted by II.
In some recen, articles in TuF SrN attention
has been directed 70 what is called the maturity
OF the chance in games Of hazard and in the racing
OF horses. In regard 20 the latter the conclusion
isdecid-dly in favor 81 betting founded upon &C
curate study Of the law Of matured chances rather
than upon the assumption Of the force Of lndi.
vidual luck. In principle the maturity Of the
chance signifies tina, the oftener the same com
bination or event has occurred or arrived IN sue.
cesSion the near er we are TO the certainty that
IL will not recur again in the immediate. future
In some cases the odds against II are a hundred
10 one or less or thousands or hundreds of thou
sands. or millions TO one, and in some instances,
since the appearance Of man on the earth the
matured chance Of the occurrence Of Il given
event has not yet arrived.
This law Of mathematical probabilities may
he applied To all incidents Of life in which risk
or acciden, il a factor. \ conspicuous example
Of the principle is found in HE insurance where
through study Of vital statistics involving hun.
drds Of thousands Of lives. a syst'm Of wagers
on longevity Is made a certain and profitable
business. When II comes, however, " it, appli
cation 70 games Of hazard, no man has as yet
been able 10 estimate the mntired chance in amy
play in which successive turns ri a card or casts
Of a die above a certain limit Is required. Button,
the naturalist and mathematician, attempted
il by throwing a perfectly balanced coin as evenly
as he was able. He made several thousand casts
in the endeavor 70 throw heads ten times in sue
cession. He threw heads nine times successfully,
bu, never ten. He then repeated the experiment
with the same numbor Of casts as on the ft'
occasion. when he not only threw ten heads several
times in succession, but also eleven. This bunch
ing" is the despair Of calculatorS Of mathematical
probabilities in games Of hazard, 1t makes II
impossible 10 formulAta any trustworthy rule
Of computation Of matured chances open to sun
and practical application, 1t may BE- this OF
superstition that leads almost all writer's ON the
subject to discriminate in gambling transactions
between individ ual luck or vein and the matursd
chances of the game.
In A series Of articles entitled lotteries, Luck,
Chance and Gambling Systems" now in course
oi publication in the FdH Mai Magazine, in the
issue for January. 1900, the author states
q case 10 illustrate his theory # luck lie pre-
sumes that on the 10th ot June, 1871, the p pu
lation ~ The United Kingdom amounts
to 80. 554, 4S2 persons and that 1t is pre-
se rived intact into the year 1901 That L., ther,
shall he no births or deaths, OF causes II decrease
or increase Of the p, ~pulGtion du'Ine That pcrlDd
On the Soth Of June, 1877, all e the S,55i 49,
persons participate in y lottery, each e. have one
share The conditions ere that the prizes are {
number one half Of the persons who enter tie
lottery and that the losers are e. retire after tlR'
drawing, and the winners, 10 ~, 2lG, are to take
n chance in the lottery for 1873; the lu'ers to re
tire ~ in the first instance. leaving S 1858, sos win.
ners to enter for the lottery Of 1870 The result
Of this third event is that 4, l9i, 3O4 persons IorI
the ranks Of the losers in the year 1917 IS and
4 1914, 304 persons, all Of whom have already
hnd three consecutive wins are eligible FIR the
lottery Of 1854. In 1854, when the eighth even,
is decided, only 1902 persons are lett t. plrucl.
pate IN future lOtte fIeS, and IN 1870 there r"m1ln
only 2,O4s winners out Il The uTglH0l hunter
that had tickets IN the first drawing In lbs
there remained only sixteen winners, While IN
1901 there will be left emily one person who hall
have had unbrOken luck iur twenty five Cuu'ecu
i've years.
In so far as the result # the vanou> drawings
| Of this lottery is concerned, II Is a matilsmEuc teal
| certainty that hut one p"r,un 90! tie Original 81,
b5l, 1872 shall secure the sole pn1e AZ the twenty
hfth consecutive drawing. 1~herelure tie dutuO 7
dengnnteS HIM a, the Ienultima tsly lucky one
out IT the original number that c.trreI the com
PETITION. \ greater example ct luck HppIed
in tins case would have been Tor unc man To-
select the final winner, on a wager out # NE
lottery on the 3Oth 81 June, 1877 Sui NOR. inter
estlng would ii have been had the autHor O.. the
article ia med the odds that should have been
allowed IN such a wager This is mathematical
computation that il open for solution Ia the sharp
"bookies" who are ready Ia, bet ~ lay odds on any
event Of which man under pre'clt conditions
has knowledge
Tie sub,uined example will be Stll more com
furung To those who have lmpIIclt belief IN luck.
neither wall II discourage the Jew Philosophical
hpleyer.In the thee .yuf the maturity If the ChgnCo,
for they will contend that tEHt II - merely q re-
nuThablr instance Of the chance Of tie individual
being CoiECldeEt with a pusslhir, If extraordinary,
accumulation II matured chances e the event
When Baden baden was the great gambling
centre Of Europe a young Saxon uOhleman MA lie
his appearance there and commenced his career
a, the tables by stalking very small sums, but
by the most extraordinary luck tins Hurd Il used
without prejudice to the theory of the maturity
Of the chance he Was able to increase his capitol
10 such an extent that he rarely staked under
the ma Aimum and almost always won His
success was So remarkable that the dealers or
c%rpupiers offered him n large sum 10 absent him
self from the tables. On the other hHni, he was
offered better terms by the players, who awaited
his arrival every morning and ,taked as he
staknd, The Counts continued luck never fal
tered, for on many occasions he left the table
a winner 70 the amour, Of Oo,OW francs. His
successful play continued 50 persistently that
the managers " the kursaal suspended the game
until they had induced the fortunate Count IN
take his departure When he did depart he car.
ried of with him a substantial proportion Of the
capital Of the bank
Casanova, brilliant Hdycnturer, mnthema
ucinn, poet, philosopher and successful gambler
Of the eighteenth century, and Gar,ia, equally
renowned for fortunate play in the present one,
were agreed that the player should not risk
his money except nt the instant prescribed by
the maturity II the chance Casanova AT Nix
in Savoy in n game 81 faro IN which he held the
bank against Charles James fuN, Engldud's
most noted amateur gamsS,rr AMI two FRIENDS,
won a great sum through his loyalty a. this ma kim
Fox and his friends. after q continued series Of
wins, placed all Of their winnings, their original
capital and n large letter ui credit N the ace
Casanova. although II meant ruln To rim had
he lost, accepted the play because previous runs
Of the cards made him believe that the chance
was about to mature in his favor Turn after
turn u the cards followed until only twelve -"
NAMED in the pack and yet no &C." Two more
deals enSued and eight cards VI; eft The
four aces were among these bne more turn
and Casanova had won
This game is not conclusive nf the in.
f~allibilily 81 the maturity II tn" chance, but when
taken in CONJUNCTION with numerous U,her' " herr
Casanova Won very large sums, through
II Is 10 he presumed that ne based his syS
TEN Of play and risk"d his money on something
more tangible than on neTr llrk Garcia iul
lowed q similar method with such success that
when he started in for serious play al la len
Bnlen, the shares Of The rriNilegir'' Bank i'm
m~edintely declined from 10 io - per cent in value
Life insurance uiIpr, tire most extended aud
practical application 81 III" etll'- = u" maturity
IL the chance. There the tendency Il The maturity
chance II death h. bunch - IT, ppcsr IN larger
Wrrp rtlon in 80 many ih,rsNrl. q lives md
10 decline in succession thousands T. provided
lot For twenty years TIN ratIr e deaths To-
the 'houHond mny be largely IN rNrr Il the
average, but IN the succeeding forty y"nrs they
may be 81 much less than the Normal thHt he