The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1900-03-24
SPIRIT OF THE PRESS.
THE GREAT COTTON YEAR.

New L 0Ih lIluuuc'
While all the markets are eXcitedly
guessing about the quantity of cotton
remaining on plantations, the area to
he planted fer the coming year and the
probable price at the opening OF the next
season, there seems to be not quite
enough attention paid TO the question
what has become of the cotton already
in sight. Mr.. Ellison's report for March
list. shows that takings by European
spihnerg have been 20S000 bales less than
last wear and his account OF stocks in
the hands of spnners shows 100000 bales
less than "a year ago, but $4,000 bales
more than any held on October 1st That
consumption has slightly declined to
159, geo bales weekly against $4,000 last
year is not by any means surprising in
view of the great increase in the cost OF
goods. Neither in this nor in any other
country can it be expected that as many
goods will be sold at prices now current
as were sold to the same consumers when
prices were more than 40 per cent lower.
There has come into sight from the
crop of 1899, only 1856, 1893 bales, but what
has become of them? One little item is
of interest; the exports of cotton to Japan
in six months have been 212S42 bales
larger than in any previous full year and
also larger than in all the years puts
together to 1898. The demand from that
quarter will undoubtedly be permanent
and will increase, but it is not in the high
est degree encouraging to Americans,
because it means the successful establish
ment of cotton mills in that country with
American machinery but with cheap Jap
anese labor which will in future compete
for the Asiatic trade. Both British and
American producers will in time find that
manufacture in Japan and China affects
the demand for Anglo Saxon products,
as the manufacture in India has done for
years past. Of the American cotton eX-
ported in six months ending with Feb
ruary, 3.S47, 1858 bales went to Great Brit
ain and the Continent; less than 102, 900
bales going to Canada and to all other
countries, except Japan.
Mr.. Ellisons statement shows that
$4,000 bales of 500 pounds each have been
added to European mill stocks, and most
of it has been American, no doubt. The
takings of spinners have been 3,614,0
actual bales. against 7S25,0C0 estimated
by him for the full year, of which $50,
600 were American. The European COM
mercial stocks of American were, on
March End, only 1.72l 900 bales, making
with the mill stocks, 2,556OOO. little
over four ffths of the European consump-
ton is of American cotton or of the
$4,000 weekly now estimated by Mr. Ell
lison, about 12S,000 bales so that Europe
practically had on hand about 20 weeks
supply of American cotton on March LIST
Moreover, as half the quantity exported
m EurOpn in EQhrIlarv would bx,
$4,000 bales the estimated consumption
of American in two weeks of March, and
yet commercial stocks of American in
Europe decreased 70, 900 bales in those
two weeks, it seems probable that mill
stocks of American were greatly increas-
ed, apparently over 1000 bales. But il
Europe has on hand enough for fully 81
weeks consumption of American cotton
or within three weeks of enough for the
crop year, it is obvious that anything APP
preaching exhaustion of that supply would
cause high prices to be maintained.
In this country the quantity taken by
spinners is known through reports OF
THE Financial Chronicle" and was / >
96S,4S3 bales to Friday night. Last years
consumption of cotton by Northern mills
was 1854 bales weekly, and while there
has been much increase at the South
probably the increase at the North TAX
ing the months together has not been
great. Thus Northern mills have taken
enough for "A weeks consumption az
last years rate, and they held at the
start 425,S57 bales, making over 531s
weeks supply for % weeks consumption
thus far. They would appear TO have
251s weeks supply on hand, less any
increase in consumption over that of last
year, and there remain besides the COM
mercial stocks in this country, 295 466
bales on Friday night, which would sup
ply European deficiencies, with over 900-
900 bales to spare. Here. as abroad. some
stocks must be carried over, but in 1897
American commercial stocks ran down
to less than 49,, 900 bales and mill stocks
to less than $4,000 bales, and yet the
price was over &c lower than it is now.
These data Indicate that there is no
great danger of cotton famine though
American holders have the opportunity
to make foreign consumers pay good
prices for all they want They have been
doing SO with unusual success for some
months, the actual value of the quantity
exported during the crop year to date
being as great as it was a year ago
though the quantity has been 1,6S4. 000
bales smaller. There is still a large
quantity of cotton to be moved, as the
continuance of receipts indicates, and
while estimates of that quantity may diff
fer widely, it is evident that the time is
near at hand when foreign as we'll as
domestic consumers can feel that they
can safely refuse to pay extreme prices.
Rut while If LASTS the ODDOrtTnitV is q
rare one for the producers of this country
and it will undoubtedly encourage them
to material Increase of acreage for the
next crop