Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1900-10-30
GIVE 1T TO M'KINLEY
Conservative New Jersey Democrats
Concede the State.
ONLY QUESTION Size OF. MAJORITY
This Will Be Determined by the
City Vote.
FIGHTFOR REPRESENTATIVE

Special Correspondence of The Evening Star.
TRENTON, N. j., October 80, 1900.
Conservative democrats in New Jersey
who are supporting Mr.. Bryan in this cam
paign concede the state to the republicans
differing with them only as to the size OF
the majority. Chairman Gourlay Of the
democratic state committee claims the state
by from 10000 to 10000, and in this fore
cast he Is sustained by ex-Sheriff Robert
Davis, the Hudson county boss" Neither
of these men really believes, however, that
New Jersey is going democratic They do
believe, with some reason, that the repub-
lican plurality will be very much reduced
from the figures Of 1896. when Mckinley
and Hobart carried the state by 1852.
Senators Sewell and Kean say for publi-
cation that the republicans will win this
year by $4,000, but they do not believe it.
To his friends Chairman Franklin Murphy
of the republican state committee estimates
the plurality for his party at 10000.
The Election of 1898.
The democrats give out no figures by
counties and avoid all details. They talk
significantly about the small purality-5,549
which Senator Voorhees, received for gov
ernor in 1898, and they say it proves that
the returns of the last state election are
analysed, however, they afford no real COM
fort to the democrats. The republican can
didate was nominated against the wishes of
Senator Sewell and ex-Representative now
Senator) John Kean, and he developed no
strength after the nomination.
The democratic candidate, Prosecuting
Attorney Crane of Essex, was equally weak
and, in the case of Mr.. Voorhees,, his
nomination was distasteful to some of the
leaders of his party. There could be no
better evidence of republican Indifference in
that campaign than the narrow margin by
which Mr. voorhees, was elected governor
The total vote was about SO, 900 less than in
1896. Comparisons of conditions as a guide
to results this year must be made with the
returns of 1896 and not with the latest
state election.
Determined by the City Vote.
New Jersey is a state of cities In pro-
portion to the whole number of its people
it has larger urban population than any
other state in the Union. This population
is found in Newark, Jersey City, Paterson,
camden, Trenton, Hoboken and Eliza beth.
The average increase of popula ton in
these cities since 1890 has been over 80 per
cent. The counties of Essex, Hudson, Pas
sale, Camden. Mercer and Union, in which
these cities are situated, cast a vote of
2o9,944 in 1896, as compared with 145, 09S in
the other fifteen counties in the state. If
Atlantic, Bergen and Cumberland be eX-
cepted, these fifteen counties show but lit
tie increase of population during the last
decade Some OF them have remained al
most stationary, and Sussex and Warren
nave probably declined. The city vote of
New Jersey will determine the size of the
plurality which the state will give to Nc
kinley and Roosevelt.
Gain for Democrats.
New Jersey never swerved from it's ale
glance to the democratic party until Mr.
Bryan became a candidate for President
Cleveland carried twelve of the twenty-one
counties of the state, while Bryan carried
but two, Henderson and Warren, and thase
by greatly reduced democratic pluralities.
Nowhere in the country was the sound
money triumph more signal and decisive
Inc labor vote was cast almost solidly
against Mr.. Bryan. The size of the repub-
ncan plurality this year will depend mainly
upon how much of the labor vote ordinarily
democratic, and which was republican in
1896, has gone back to its original political
animation. There are one or two other in
nuences which will result in a decreased re-
publican plurality. 1t is estimated that the
personality of the late Carrot A. Hobart
brought to the republican national ticket IN
New Jersey in 1896 al least 2O,OOO democrat
lc votes. A part of this vote will be given
to the republican national ticket this wear
but any estimate would be faulty which
did not allow for the return to the demo-
cratic party of a large percentage Of this
personal following.
In New Jersey, as elsewhere a cer+,;n
number Of democrats who voted the re-
publican national ticket in 1896 will return
to the democratic party this year believ-
Ing the menace to the gold standard from
that party is no longer serious Prior 10
1895 the New Jersey democrat was a stall
Wart partisan, and when he refused to vote
the democratic ticket IN 1886 it was be-
cause he really feared disaster would follow
Mr. Bryan's election. Many of these demo-
Gratis still believe that Mr. BRYAN is a threat
to the industries Of the country, and they
will vote the republican ticket but the per
centage, which is probably quite large, who
will return to the democratic party must
not be ignored in estimating probable re-
suits Their number is not large enough.
however. to excite serious alarm on the
part of the managers of the republican
campaign.
Germans for Mckinley.
The German vote of New Jersey remains
stanch for Mckinley and sound money.
The German voter is one of the most prac-
teal of men and the last to be swayed by
merely sentimental consideration He Is
prospecting in the New Jersey cities as never
before. The employees of the large brewing
interests in Newark, Jersey City, Hoboken
and Paterson are not showing any more
democratic tendency this year than they
did in 1896. The republican leader in Es-
sex county, Carl Lent, scouts the idea that
Tie ISSUE VI Imperialism HdS maze any aD
preciable impression upon the German
sound money vote, and no man has a larger
acquaintance in eastern New Jersey than
has Mr.. LentZ.
Bryan Gains Labor Votes.
Bryan has made some gains among the
workingmen of this state by his assaults
upon the republican party and by impress
ing them with the idea that he is friend
Of labor and wants to do something for it,
The labor vote of the state Is very large,
as in all of the principal cities are assem-
bled great manufacturing interests employ
ing thousands of skilled and unskilled
workmen. If there was a strong drift
among these wage-earners to Mr.. Bryan
the verdict Of 1896 might be- reversed. If
there is any such drift, however, It is bare
ly more than perceptible, even after the
most careful investigation. Thousands of
these employees OF New Jerseys industries
own their own homes or are paying for
them on the installment plan. They have
funds in the savings banks. The foremen
begin at the foot of the ladder and there