The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1900-01-08

NEW YORK, Jan. Henry Clews'
weekly stock letter says:
The market has partially recovered
from the December decline, and has
emerged greatly strengthened by that
test All danger of panic was successful
ly averted, and it will be many months
before the low prices then touched will
be seen again. AS for the future course
of the security markets in 1900 any opin-
Ions of value must be guided by careful
consideration. Taken as whole, the
outlook for the present year is highly
favorable; prosperity prevails throughout
the country, while both trade and in
dustry are in sound and hopeful condi-
ton. These are powerful factors in a
bull market; indeed, we could have none
better; and We're they allowed full sway
we nigh expect active and strong mar
kets throughout the year; but there are
important offsets to be considered which
would quickly upset any too optimistic
conclusions
1t is very unlikely that 1900 will be a
repetition of 1899. Even prosperity has
Its fluctuations and drawbacks, especially
when cost of material and labor rise to g,
point that checks new enterprise or leads
to overp oduction, with all the inconven-
lent consequences that follow. The rise
In many commodities has been quite pro-
nounced. In pig iron and iron products
the advance has been simply phenomenal
owing to the tremendous pressure of or
ders. The effect of this is to again bring
into use many obsolete and discarded
plants in all parts of the country, which
may run al a profit for a few months
or years, but must ultimately succulnb
to the competition of stronger and bet
ter equipped concerns when prices recede
to the normal. There are number of
very important enterprises now held in
allegiance because of the high price of
iron entering into permanent structures;
and When the present rush of orders has
been satisfied and some concessions eff
fected IN values these buyers will proba-
bly, come into the market and so prevent
any serious or too rapid decline; but it
should not be forgotten that the present
roseate conditions in the iron trade will
not continue indefinitely.
The stock market is now more under
the influence of iron than ever; first be-
cause so many securities of that class
are now dealt in here, and second be-
cause IN various ways railroad traffic is
materially affected. Any marked subsi-
dence of the activity in the iron trade is,
stherefore, likely to withdraw a powerful
stimulus to stocks; but this will not hap
pen for months TO come, many concerns
having on hand orders that will keep
them busy for the next six months earn
ing large profits.
There are also other lines of industry
in which 1t is c. question If 1900 proves
as goou year as 1899 The textile trades
have had wonderfully successful sea-
son, but prudent merchants are not over
confident, especially in view of the great
expansion of the cotton industry in the
South.
Another important element In the fu-
ture is the money market. There is lit
tie prospect of what we usually term
easy rates during the present year.
Trade is sure to be sufficiently active to
make good rates for money practically
certain. The chief question is, shall we
expect undue stringency? There is
enough money available for all regular
purposes, but two disturbing factors
must be faced-the Transvaal war and
our own defective currency system. AS
for the first, it is quite evident that Great
Britain has a more serious undertaking
on hanG thar at first expected Unless
the Beers surrender, which seems against
all probability, the war may be pro-
longed for months before the British flag
floats over Pretoria necessitating no
doubt large issue of consols, estimated
at not less than fifty millions sterling and
perhaps more. AS this war will prove
much more expensive affair than ours
with Spain, its effect upon the money
markets of the world will be correspond
ingly greater. For the same reason our
security markets will be keenly sensitive
to any battles or events which promise
to affect the duration of the struggle.
A decisive British victory will cause an
advance, or a serious British reverse
must cause declines. AS for the difficult
ties arising from the defects of our fiscal
arrangements, their only cure rests in
intelligent legislation, and we can only
hope for conditions which will not aggra-
vate them until congress takes up the
subject in earnest. Our war tariff is
yielding a much larger national revenue
than is required, causing locking up of
funds in the treasury and an injury to
business that provokes serious and not
always well directed criticism. Some
modification of the present scale of taxa
lion is desirable If the administration
wishes to avoid difficulties for which it is
not responsible. Congress, however, is
hot likely to attempt any radical changes