The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1900-02-03
ATWOOD, VIOLET & co.
Give the Basis of Their Bullish Views
on Cotton.

New York, Feb. 2.-(Special.) -Messrs.
Atwood, Violet & Co, of New York,
have just issued the following circular:
The cotton exports from America from
January 9th to August 81, 1899, both
inclusive were 4,129,000 bales. From
September LIST, 1899, to January 9th,
1900, there had been exported from this
country nearly 100000 bales less than
from September LIST, 1893 to january
9th, 1899. Consequently to equal the
total exports from september LIST, 1875
to August list 1899, there must be ex'
ported from tins country from January
18th to August 3lst, 1900, 6,UUO,UUu
bales of cotton. To show the impossible
ity OF exports of any such quantity we
submit the following: The total visible
9th inst. was LAS, 100 bales and ON the
9th inst. was LBS, 200 bales and ON the
same date the amount marketed of pres
ent crop according TO the Financial
Chronicle had been 6,57S,S19 bales. As
Stunning as we do that this crop will realize
3, loU,UUU bales ut means that the ole
supply in this country was Cd 9th inst
about 2,2OO,UUO bales which added to the
visible supply gives total of both in this
country on the 18th inst of about 3,94S,-
0UO bales. The Financial Chronicle OF
the 9th inst. makes Southern consump-
ton to that date since September LIST,
1899, 611,U00 bales and Northern mill
taking to same date 1,5S2,3S bales, an
aggregate OF 2,193,U00 bales. The total
ae ~ |, boil
eIn consumption for all of last season
was 3,5S9,4Y bales. Consequently il
this country consumes no more than last
season whereas it will consume 2J0,OOU
to 100000 bales in excess of last season, J
it means that to equal at 1,396,OOO bales
will be required between January 9th
and August 31st, 1900, for domestic con-
sumption in addition to =, 193,OUO bales
as, above to the 9th inst. linen again
there must be carried over ON September
LIST next in this country at least 4UOUOU
bales OF visible and invisible supply and
deducting these two amounts from 3,94S,
600 bales it shows that there will be left
for export not only to Europe but to
China, Japan, Mexico and Canada from
January 18th to August 31st, 1900 about
2,152, 900 bales, against exports during
same period last year of 4, 129,000 bales.
These figures are startling because of
the supply particularly when taking them
in connection with the worlds consump-
ton of American cotton in regard to
which we have to say as follows: Ac-
cording to the authority on European
mill stocks and consumption (Mr. Ihos.
Elhson,) the aggregate amount consumed
by English and continental spinners is
now 5000 bales weekly of all kinds OF
500 pounds each. Taking the daily re-
port of the Liverpool market it shows
that the proportion of American cotton
sold to that of all kinds is about 80 per
cent, and mo doubt the same proportion
is true of the daily continental sales of
cotton Of all kinds assuming, however
that only So per cent of European con-
sumption is American cotton and this
represents, out of 163, 1000 bales weekly
about 10000 bales of American. The
weekly consumption of Southern mills
according to the Financial Chronicle and
Secretary Hester is 10000 bales. The
consumption by Northern mills unjust
certainly be 10000 bales weekly or to-
tai of 100000 bales. To this must be
added the consumption of American by
China, Japan, Mexico and Canada and
elsewhere assuming that this aggrega-
ton is only 5000 bales weekly it gives
a total weekly consumption by the world
of 215,000 bales of American or IL, $780,
600 bales per annum. 1t can be safely
said, however, that the spinning world as
today consuming of American cotton an
amount per annum of 11,250,000 bales
equal TO the largest consumption ON ne
cord-that of last year, when it was
largely stimulated by the low price. The
worlds buying power, however has in
creased so materially during the past
twelve months as to show that the high
err prices for cotton instead of lessening
is stimulating the product
iveness of the worlds cotton manufac-
turing industries. With a crop this sea-
son of even $780, 900 bales and adding to
it 100000 bales brought over ON Sep
tember LIST last of the worlds visible sup
ply of American of 1862, 900 bales would
still leave ON September LIST, 1900, a de
felt between supply and consumption of
1,50O,0 900 bales, but it would also leave
the worlds visible supply dangerously
small, and smaller than ON September 1st
Of any year since 1889, the crop of which
season was 1911 600 bales, and at which
time the price of nlddling cotton in New
York was 111a as against S1s cents to-
day Any one can reasonable anticipate
from these statistical conditions as we
have presented them am advance of great
proportions and in giving this data as
herein contained we do so in order tc
show what has been for long time past
the basis of our bullish views for the
staple and which we have continually
put forth in our market letters to the local
and Southern press during the past five
months.
(Signed) ATWOOD VIOLETT & co.