The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1900-06-25
BEARS ARE IN EVIDENCE
POIITICAS, CAMPAIGN, AS USUAL,
MADE USE OF TO HAM
MER STOCKS
CROP NEWS HAS INFLUENCE
Nothing Seriously Adverse to This
Market In the Foreign Situa-
tiOn-The Renewal of
Gold Exports.

NEW YORK, June % SpeciaI) Bear
ish proclivities have been quite active
during the past week; unfavorable crop
reports, the approach of a political cam
paign, the Chinese developments and the
renewal of gold exports being the ap-
parent reasons for the declines. The
real reasons however, were the indis-
position Of the public to continue buying
at the recent high level Of prices; the rec
ognition of this fact by experienced oper-
ators, and the willingness, if not desire,
of the big holders to see a moderate re-
action on which to base fresh buying
movement in anticipation of more favor
able developments later on. Intrinsic con-
di.!ons may be perfectly sound; yet, if the
speculative forces are agreed upon
lower range of values, nothing can be
gained by resisting those forces at this
time. On the contrary, the advantage
lies in letting them have their own way
for period; so that the rebound upwards
will become the more pronounced later
on
As to crop reports, it is quite certain
that considerable damage has been done
by drought in the Northern spring wheat
districts; but this seems to have been
fully discounted, and considerable COM
pensation will be gained by farmers in
other sections through the higher prices
for wheat, while there is no prospect of
deficiency in the aggregate wheat crop
In other respects there is nothing I'M
favorable in the crop situation unless per
haps that the weather has been too cool
for the rapid growth of corn. 1t IS al
together too soon, however, to make any
reliable calculations as to crop returns.
The political campaign is a cause of I'M
certainty, more perhaps than the facts
Justify; yet opinions will differ and the
market is likely to be sensitive to such
opinions, rightly or wrongly, until the
outcome of the elections can be more &C
curately foreseen. The reelection of Pres
ident Mckinley is generally conceded
still there is the possibility, If not prob
ability, that the campaign will produce
some unexpected results if not unexpect-
ed scares. Campaign committees are
quite Shrewd enough to consider the
dangers of oVerconfdence, and specula-
tors viii be ready to take full advantage
of any scares, real or artificial, that may
develop. A presidential campaign can
have but little effect upon the actual dis
tribution and consumption of merchan-
disc; consequently the retail and smaller
transactions in business viii be but slight
" affected; but the larger operations,
those which enter in the future those
which are largely speculative and those
which call for the initiative are always
much influenced by political movements.
Uncertainty always defers if it does not
destroy such activity.
Trade prospects are very satisfac tory,
although the outlook is somewhat con-
fused by the readjustment of prices now
going on. Values had been advanced
much too high because of the sudden
and unprecedented rush of orders. Now
that these are satisfied both demand and
prices are gravitating to the normal
More or less unsettlement must be eX-
pected until this period is passed, and it
IS quite likely that buyers will hold off
for still lower prices until forced to rec
Ognize that bottom is touched During
the interval therefore a period of dullness
may be expected that will be very dis
couraging in contrast with the conditions
of year ago. But this will be tenn
pOrary, for there are no signs of the re-
cent activity having run its course. Quite
the reverse; there is every reason to an
ticipate good trade during the coming
fall and winter, because enterprise and
industry are alert and the execution of
new projects will keep every mill busy for
months to come. Overproduction is not
yet in sight.
In the foreign situation there is nothing
seriously adverse to this market. Should
the disturbances in China be subdued by
the combined powers, without any dissen-
sions among the latter, there will be no
cause for uneasiness. The situation, how
ever, in the far East is highly complex
and not free of dangerous possibilities.
When these have been safely passed the
United States will reap greater advan-
tages from the opening of China to COM
merce than any other nation The East
is interested in China on behalf Of her
iron manufacturers who will supply that
country with railroads, telegraphs and
other articles required with the advance
of Western civilization. The South Is
especially interested in behalf of her cot
ton manufacturers, who will some day be
threatened with overproductiOn unless
they find the foreign outlet which China
offers; and the Pacific coast is interested
In behalf of her canned fruit and grain
products. of which the Chinese will be-
come large cOnsumerS-tO say nothing of
the Pacific coast shipping and mercantile
interests which will largely benefit from
the development of commerce with China,
Japan and the Philippines. Meantime the
foreign markets are exposed to shocks
arising from the Chinese situation which
would be partially reflected here; though
there is small likelihood of our markets
being seriously disturbed by this factor.
The most desirable solution of the
Chinese question would be the removal
of the dowager empress and the estab-
liShment of a strong central government,
through concert of the powers, made up
of the progressive element in Oh M, which
is amply capable of giving a good ad-
ministration if adequately supported at
the start. If this plan fails. the outlook !
would be anything but promising, for the
control of 100000 600 of people under one
government is a big undertaking: it would
certainly be much safer for the future
peace of other nations for China to be
divided UP into numerous parts than to
continue under one head. If disintegra-
tlon is inevitable, it would be far easier
to effect Il now than later, when the
Chinese will have become discip ined in
the use of modern war weapons and
methods. China's power in that event in
holding together as one mammoth nation,
might become a serious danger to other
races. That is the yellow Peril" In
any event there must be a formal up
holding of the open door policy; to en-
able the United States to come in for
her full share of the commercial advan-
tages without the disadvantages of ter.
ritorlal ownership.
Gold exports have attracted little atten-
ton, because of our ability to spare con-
siderable sums for points where 1t is mot |
needed. Our supply, 1t should be remem< |
Pered, is being constantly replenished by |
home production and receipts from the |
kondike and Alaskan regions. Paris has |
taken considerable sums, and Berlin, |
point Of speculative weakness, has also |
felt the need of strengthening its stock |
of gold. Any relief we afford the other
side viii be helpful here.
Concerning the future of the market its |
ic q in hoy he