The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1900-09-09

HAhN = .hN' - 49, NhA'N - eSAae NAOlk
In selecting that number, and yet l was fool
enough 10 stick 20 It; which. Of course, was
pure Illusion. for all I did really know wa,
that the chance was even. or much moro than
even. against me. But this Illusion followed
me throughout. ! had a sense OF deserving
success when l succeeded. and OF having fallsd
through my own wilfulness. or wron g-headed
caprice OF choice when | failed 49,
When you win at one time and lose at anoths,
the mind La almost unable 20 realize steadily
that there IA no reason accessible TO yourself
why you had won and why you lost. And 80 you
~invent-what you know perfectly well TO be
a nction-the conception Of some sort OF in
ward divining rod which guided you right
when you used It properly. and failed only
because you did not attend adequately TO lie
Indications"
Thus far our author has discussed the psy-
chology Of crises as It Ia affected By certain
intellectual and emotional tendencies ~ indi.
viduas. He ne1t turns 10 the eI amination o.,
certain social forces which operate TO brlns
about financial and Industrial commissions
Thus far attention has been directed 20 the
effect Of belief upon action. Equally important
In the effect OF action upon feelings and beliefs,
but a. actions are more governed by social oon-
alterations than are beliefs the 81 Examination Of
the effect Of actions has been postponed TO This
point. Prof. Jones begins the dJ-' ussion Of this
matter by reminding us that tn per sister eI-
ertion Of the will to force another TO q certain
line Of action Possesses a remarkable power 70
coerce his feelings into harmony with the action
TO be performed. In the competitive system
the business man Is soon taught that TO court
SUCCESS properly he must put on the appearance
Of success and talk act and look asif he were suo-
cessful. A merchant attracts trade by protesting
~ - IA - -. 10 =
we're at the height OF a deserved prosperity,
Merchants drive trade with merchants by tao-
ing general trade prosperity TO one another.
Advertisements must always assume a confident
cheerful tone and give the impression Of assured
success. Physicians, TO win the best-payins
patients, must live well, dress well. drive stylish
eauipages and put on al the appearances Of
prosperity. All these actions do truly tend 70
coerce feelings and opinions into lines har-
monious with themselves and 10 enforce the sp-
p~ropriate feelings Of optimism which are only too
ready to spring up and dominate mems thought
Next to the optimistic activity which tho com
petitive trade system enforces upon It's mem
bers, Prof. Jones thinks that the economic ooD-
sequences OF belief In testimony should no
considered. II the Individual mind works
imperfectly. and Is prone to certain
chronic errors. the social mind IA yet
more unsatisfactory from many points Of
view. In the social mind the tendency toward
extreme and intense views appears mors
marked. Al of VA receive only a small por-
ton Of our beliefs as the outcome OF our own
observations and independent thought. Most
Of our guidance comes from the testimony "
Others. Such a ready-formed opinion our
intellectual Inertia leads us TO accept The
coercive power Of a generally accepted view
20 torv uraat and only tha most in1cupnlput
minds can hold out against II. Under the In
fuence Of the struggle for eminence, success
comes to the front for display. while failure
tries 10 hide itself. In 80 far M economic
forces are controlled by the struggles Of 10.
dividuals for success. II Ia optimistic testimony
which is most copiously forthcoming In eco
nomlc matters. The businesses which are 10 be
seen are those which have survived the shocks
OF time. Those which have failed have dis
appeared. Success IL contagious The lisa
Of losers Ia never published. Not only Is the
true snccess In evidence, but a false showing
IL made by the counterfeit OF success which
the struggle for social position leads many
TO attempt when reason would counsel a mors
humble course. This false social attitude
toward economic affairs may be expected 70
continue so long as the economic life is over
emnhesi7ed. just so long as business success
IL accented as tne sovereign criterion LOT JUG
ing Of a mans character and ability. every
motive which can lead n man to desire good
standing in the eyes Of his fellow men will lead
him 10 struggle for economic success. and
counterfeit II when not really achieved,
II is obvious that the growth Of erroneous
beliefs can be carried much further by a crowd
Of persons associated together than by the
persons composing It when separated. This
extreme result j. brought about by the reaction
Of opinion upon opinion. A. McCulloch has said
In speculation, as In most other things. oue
individual derives confidence from another.
such n one purchases or sells. not because b"
has any particular or accurate Information N
regard TO the state Of the demand and supply
for n particular commodity, but because sons
ono else has done so before him" IL II he
granted. for tho purpose Of %argunent that
each individual may be capable u only ahmiicf
error IN estimating the future condition v
industry upon the basis of present indications
il will be admitted that his opinion, ns expressed
or implied by hi1 acts upon the market may
serve a. evidence from testimony for Others.
They in turn when considering the same problem
will allow a certain weight 10 this
II we suppose a Ike inclination on their part -
SEQ business success as certain where IL Is de-
sired. they may advance by means OF their i-
dlvidual increment Of error one step further than
the previous trader toward a speculative and
unsound estimate. Thus a whole group -
traders may he lifted step by step through s''-
cessivc accumulations Of error in the direD'ioi
Of Overconfdence and reCklessn"Ss 10 a pu'it
Of absurdity rurther than any ono of those m
volyed would. with the ordinary use Of HE reason
have advanced singly.
The influence Of belief In testimony, however.
can hardly be made to account for all the vasN-
ries Of belief which accompany a crisis. states
OF mind. hopes and beliefs are communicate
from one individual to another by means OF
what il best described az sympathy. lHs
most extreme exhibition Of the operation OF
this force will be found in the unthInkinS feroe
fly OF mob action. A large city IL character
lied by an intensity Of internal imitation IN
proportion 10 the density Of It's population
and the multiplicity Of the relations Of It's m
habitants. Thus there 4. an epidemic and con-
tagious character given not only 20 its ciseas"'
but to it's styles and views The socialist
blooms" Of American towns eIemplify IN
acute form tho occasional economic effect ot
these influences. The power of mental con-
tagion ia obviously increased by such fao'i-
ties for assenblage and communicated a. 80
railw ay, telegraph and telephone lis oless Nh