The Seattle post-intelligencer. [volume] (Seattle, Wash. Terr. [Wash.]) 1888-1914, 1900-05-26
PROBABILITIES IN POKER.
MATHEMATICAL THEORY TESTED
BY FACTS OF THE GAME.
Expectation of Improvement-Hand
in . Jackpot which Science De-
eiared to BE Improbsbie-where
Theory and Experience Agreed.

Theory and Experience Agreed.
sam johnson was a drummer for a
siiverware house and had lust wound
up good days work by selling tidy
little bill to Cohen & Straus. 1t was too
late TO go anywhere else and too early
ior supper. so he sat around and talked
about various things for a quarter OF an
hour. presently the conversation turned
on amusements, and Sam remarked that
ne was tired OF going TO the theater and
ala not play billiards. and did not know
exactly what 10 do with himself. Cohen
asked him II he ever played poker. ana
sam jumped at the suggestion of a quiet
game that evening and went away with
an appointment to meet his customers at
a little uptown club about o'clock
Nhen ne arrived they were both there
nut the two others who were expected
20 make up the party had not nut in an
appearance. While they were waiting
the conversation naturally turned on the
game. and Sam gave his customers some
OF ms ideas on the subject. in which he
Ia1nsr iancied himself an expert having
studied all the books and learned all the
tables OF expectation Of Improvement by
heart.
i almost always win" he said. be
cause / stick pretty close TO the theory
on probabilities. never go into a pot
r'nSut 'Sis OF peter. ana never stay
with a jack unless I have as good as
openers or can draw to bob by paving
my percentage OF expectation of Improves
ment, All the money I see lost at poker
IS ehipped away playing weak hands
against stronger ones"
Weh. said Cohen. 81 go in on any
thing at all II am playing in luck, and
would sooner draw to an ace ard a
deuce than pass a pot with four men I'm
tt" 'e'' ="
Me too" said Straus. And as for
Jacks. | always stay on a pair because
my chance OF making threes Is as good
as the openers. and II I don't get nv
third man 1 can drop out"
according TO the doctrine Of proba-
oihties,' rejoined Johnson. the han3
which is stronger on the go in will be
stronger after the draw in the long run
and the fellow that draws TO the larger
pair Will beat you oftener than Won will
beat him. That is a mathematical prono-
sition which can easily be proved"
but II he beats me twice out of three
tunes ne gets only my come-in money!"
retorted Straus. But If I improve not
only beat him. but the whole table, and
what L win when my threes stand nm nm
der me is many times what I lose nv
paving 10 draw to my little pair"
you only think that. The theory Of
probabilities proves that Il il not so ana
that you must lose unless YOU have I'M
usual luck. You would not agree to let one
man have Jacks every deal and you deuces.
for fifty deals"
Il don't play against him alone In n
Jackpot. | get the other fellows money
too. all the antics and bets put up by the
fellows that come in on little pairs iust
like mine. There is only one man with
jacks or better. and II don't improve he
taxes my ante II ! beat him out ge;
all his money and all the contributions OF
the others In the pot at the same time
/ don't know what the odds are against
nv improving and I don't care much"
They are Just the same as the odds
against the other fellows improving his
jacks. 3is to l."
Then II lost dollar three times in
four by drawing against openers ami win
five or ten dollars the fourth time by i'm
proving, why don't I come out aheade'
But the other fellow improves, too
What are your figures for his inprov-
Ing at the same time you do. and for yours
not being the best hand even after both
have improved"
That is something which cannot be
figured out. but II he starts out ahead Of
you he will still be ahead of YOU In the
majority OF cases. That is mathematics"
SO that's mathematics, is it2" said
Cohen. Wei that explains something
that never understood before and that
has been a mystery TO every one / ever
told about IT, / never took much stock
in prohabil but something happened
In little game on board TIE Gallia com
ing home from the Paris exposition In Au.
gust, 1889, which proves your theories are
all right.
There was seven of us In a ten-shilii7g
limit game. all supposed TO be fair average
players like myself One was a school
principal from Albany and another was an
engineer from Baltimore. both OF them fun
OF probabilities. We had played about
three DAYS and | was about $50 ahead.
mostly saved by not calling either Of those
fellows unless had threes or better We
had played about an hour and the only
fellow that was watching the game had
dropped of 10 sleep when there came along
a Jackpot in which | sat on the Dealers
right. The school teacher and the engineer
had the FIRST say. and both OF them hesitat-
ed as II they wanted 70 be sure they did
not have a straight Then they passed.
and all passed. up 10 me.
Il skinned my hand over and found
pair OF aces. so l opened It for the limit
The dealer dropped The school teacher
came IN and So ala the engineer. and all