The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1900-02-04
Cotton.

Events Of exceeding consequence to tho
American business world are now taking
place In the market for raw cotton.
Early last December we called attention
to the fact that one Of the chief influences
adverse to the prosperity OF the country
was the norm diminution in our exports
of cotton. At that time there had been a de-
crease in these exports, as compared with
the previous year, OF nearly 1900, 900
bales, representing a money value OF about
SAC, 600. The troublesome part OF 1t
was that at the time a s~tringcncy prevailed
In the money markets, not only in New
York but in all the great capitals Of Europe.
Relying upon the ordinary expectation Of
cotton at the usual time, our bankers
and dealers in exchange in the early fall
had sold ahead a large quantity Of sterling
exchange, expecting to make their sales
good, or as the market term Is, "cover"
them, later in the year, when ths cotton
bills camc to hand. But the cotton bills did
not come to hand, and the sales Of exchange
had to be covered at n loss, or at least at n
higher rate than was expected. Our Gus
tomary credit balance in London was want
ing. and the transfer Of gold from this coun-
try 10 Europe ensued at particularly un-
pleasant time.
The cause Of the decreased expectation Of
cotton, as we then pointed ont, was q great
difference Of opinion between the American
growers Of the staple and the foreign buy
ers Of 1t. The latter, trusting largely to the
estimate of Mr.. HENRY NELL, believed that
q crop az large as the previous one lin
round numbers about 1000, 900 bales)
had been grow n, and that the advance in
the price Of cotton was due simply to specu-
lation. Tho Southern planters, however,
maintained that the crop was very much less
than that Of last year and that the price es-
tabllshed, so far from being improperly
high, was much too low. On the other
hand. again, it was known that the interior
stocks Of cotton were large, and this lent
some plausibility to the declaration OF
the foreigners that cotton was being held In
this country for higher prices and that it
would come out" In great quantities when
the effort to hold IL failed. There was,
therefore, a deadlock between these two
cont~nding interests. and time alone could
prove whose claims were better founded. and
which side would win in the struggle.
Tn day has now come when II can be
stated definitely that the battle Of the
Southern planters and OF the American cot.
ton trade against the foreign spinners has
been fought and won, and that the oniv
thing remaining to do Is to settle the
terms Of the capitulation, Five months OF
the cotton year have elapsed. Despite the
fact that cotton has advanced in price
nearly three-quarters OF a cent a pound
since December, and has scored n rise
altogether OF nearly three cents n pound
from the low prices OF last season, with all
the weather conditions n the winter facill-
Eating in an inordinate degree tho market
irg and transportation Of the staple, the
total amount OF the American crop now in
sight Is but q 1921 1870 bales, as against
1904, $40 bales at the same time last year.
1t Is as certain as anything can be that the
cotton crop OF the present season, 80 far
hom amounting to another lt,oO0,O 900
bales, is, approximately, only about 9,ooo,-
600 bales, and the estimates Of the cotton
trade now vary between 800, 900 bales
above this figure and 100000 below II.
At this advanced period Of the cotton sea
son. In nine years out OF ten. three-Quarters
ofthe cotton crop isin sight II the rule holds
good the entire cotton crop OF the year will
b. but 8 SOC. 900 bales. Up to within q very
recent period tho English splnners main
tainsd their attitude Of soeptioism regard
Ing the shortness Of the American crop.
Tho total amount Of ouR exports Of raw
cotton v now nearly 100000 bales less