Evening bulletin. [volume] (Honolulu [Oahu, Hawaii]) 1895-1912, 1900-10-20
How Party Polls Are
Made Previous TO Election

There are approximately 10000 poii-
ing places in the United States in a
Presidential election. Delaware, which
has the smallest number, has 1856; New
York, which has the largest number,
has $1,000. The great majority are in
rural districts. In advance of an elec-
ton 1t is usual to hear that one politi-
cal party has completed its poll of the
State" whereby, with accuracy and
precision, the results of the pending
election can be foreshadowed, to the
great advantage of credulous bettors
and to the manifest relief OF appro-
hensive candidates-if the poll be true.
The method of making polls Is simple
enough. For instance. in close State
like Indiana, which has $3.50 polling
places, and in which the Republican
plurality four years ago was $4,000,
or an average of five votes to each poll
ing place, 1t is customary for the Dem-
ocratic State Committee to send out, in
advance of the election, a number 0:
letters or postal cards to individuals
having or presumed to have accurate
knowledge Of the political conditions
in their respective voting districts.
Theoretically, such estimates, made by
competent persons, would be of great
value as guide to the probable vote of
the State.
AS a matter of fact, actual returns
do not come from more than one-half
the districts and these are made by
partisans whose manifest interest II Is
to show great gains from the other par
ty as the result Of their diligence and
sagacity. They are loath to admit
losses on their own side but send re-
turn Of which the following will serve
as an illustration. In the town of Paw
Paw, Wabash county, Ind, there are
three election districts. In the first,
which is usually Republican, there
were, for instance. In the Presidential
election 100 votes cast for Mckinley, so
for Bryan and for Palmer. The DEM
ocratic representative at Paw Paw, to
whom inquiry is made, responds in sub
stance as follows: II send you here
with list OF ten Republicans who vot-
ed for Mckinley four years ago ana
who are now for Bryan. have not
communicated with either of the four
Gold Democrats, but understand that
two of them are for Bryan and two Cor
Mckinley. Have heard of no detection
from our side since 1896. Estimate this
years vote at 80 for Mckinley and 20
for Bryan, change of 20 votes" There
are in Indiana, as stated, $3.50 polling
places and a change of 20 votes in each
would represent total OF 6.300 in the
whole State. turning Republican ma.
pority in to a Democratic plurality of
$4,000. That is, according to the Demo-
cratic poll. The Republican in tie
first district of Paw Paw answers the
inquiry of the State Committee some
what as follows: Mckinley vote'four
years ago 100; defections since: Free
Silver Republicans who voted for Bry-
an four years ago now for Mckinley,
10; no information as TO the four Col |
Democrats; probable vote this year,
Mckinley. 10; Bryan, so; a Repub!i-
can gain of 90" A like gain of 20 votes
in each polling district OF Indiana
would increase the Mckinley majority
there from is 900 to $1,000.
In line with such estimates, based on
polls is the recent bulletin issued by
the Democratic State Committee Of II.
linois by which the success of the
Democratic electoral and State ticket
is confidently predicted" and under
a similar system of estimates, success
In Nebraska. West Virginia, Kansas
Kentucky, Wisconsin, Iowa and Michi
gan has been confidently predicted b.
both parties simultaneously for nun.
Der of years. Political prophesies base.
on polls have the advantage that the,
present all the earmarks of correctness
but they fail to withstand, In mos
cases, the ordeal Of the election, ant
after 1t very little Is heard OF canvas
by polls until the next campaign. II
Southern States very little attention
Is paid to polling estimates and thi
method Of prophecy gets little supper
T..