New-York tribune., 1900-08-20
FIGURLNG ON TIE NExT HOUSE

Most of the estimates now current of the
probable strength OF the two political parties
IN the next House of Representatives rest on
what is plainly a mistaken basis of calculation.
Because the margin Of Republican asceDdency
in the popular branch of Congress has narrowed
IN each general election since 1S94-falling from
135 in the LIVth Congress 10 ffty-six in the
LVth and thirteen in the LVIth-it is hastily
assumed that the causes of gradual decline
operative in those three contests will this year
wholly extinguish Republican control Such an
assumption runs counter. however, to a law
which in recent years has governed the fuctua-
lions Of party strength in the lower house. Ac-
cording TO this law, the party in power in the
National Administration has uniformly suffered
loss in Representatives in each off year"
struggle to repair that loss TO greater or less
extent in the succeeding Presidential year
Thus, in 1888, General Harrison's election
over Mr. Cleveland carried into the House the
narrowest Of party majorites-on the first day
Of the session only three The Democratic
rdal wave Of 1890 followed. and the opposition
majority in the lower branch mounted 10 the
extraordinary figure Of 140. Two years later
though President Harrison was defeated de-
cisive]y for reelection, the Democratic ma
5or1ty in the House fell 10 eighty-six In 1894
the pendulum took another violent swing. and
Mr. Cleveland found himself with an anti-Ad-
ministration majority of 135 "on his hands"
The succeeding Presidential contest though it
resulted in a Democratic defeat cut down the
Republican majority in the popular branch by
over half-to ffty-six. In 1898 all signs pointed
TO another anti-Adminstration reaction: and
over the greater part Of the Union the ratio of
Republican loss was marked enough to throw
the House once more into the hands Of the
Democratic opposition. The result two years
ago did not represent however. as heretofore
one general drift Of feeling but was the sum
of two distinct and opposite reactions. For
while in the East. the South and the Middle
West Republican losses were the rule the
verdict Of 1896 was reversed sufficiently In the
Free Silver States Of the Far West to hold the
House in line with the Mckinley Administra-
ton.
IN the night for the control of the next House
the Republican party starts with an advantage
which no Administration party has had in
years-the prestige Of having passed the fatal
ebb year without actual defeat The Republi-
can managers can look forward 10 a certain
Wholesome recovery of voting strength in States
in which the chief losses Of 1898 were suffered
while the opposition is confronted with the
task not only Of holding what came TO II so
easily two years ago but OF extending its vic
tories still further into hitherto unconauered
Republican territory. How are the Democra tic
gains Of 1898 10 be maintained and where are
the additional seats which the party must can't
ure 10 assure its coveted majority? New-Fnp-
land sent three Democrats to the lower bonse
two years ago. Two of these three districts
VIII in all probability be redeemed in Novem-
Der. New-Y0rk and Pennsylvania together
elected twenty-eight Democratic Representa-
lives 10 the LVIth Congress. In this State at
least five seats should be recaptured; in Penn
><'vanis there is every prospect that the Demo-