The Saint Paul globe., 1900-05-14
HOW LONG WILL TT LAsrY
Spencer Wilkinson Discusses the
Probable Ending of the War.

Probable Ending of the War.
NEW YORK, May 18.-Spencer. .Wilkin-
son, of London, in an article on "How
Long VIII the Boer War Iast?'' which
will appear in the forthcoming edition of
Leslie's Weekly, says:
In the summer of 1861 there were
probably few men in or out of the United
states who foresaw that the wal, of seces-
sion would last four years; if any held
that opinion he gained little credence for
1t at the time. In June 1866, ONLY those
who had special opportunities of knowing
the condition of the Prussian army fore
saw that the Austrian empire would be
SUNG for peace within six weeks of the
outbreak of the then pending hostilities
The duration of a war depends Dartlv
upon the nature of the country in which
1t is WaSed, but much more upon the
relative resources of the two belligerents
and the energy and determination which
each OF them throws into it. The last
named is probably the most important
factor. I have from the beginning expect,
ed that the Beers would make a desper-
ate fight. According to their view the
cause for which they are in arms is that
of their independence or their national
existence, and for that cause every com.
munity VIII fight harder and longer than
for any other.
Great Britain is fighting for the unity
of her empire and for the moral ex-
istence of the British nation 1t Is a
cause which appeals less directly to the
intelligence of the masses than that OF
independence, and the disproportioD be-
tween the resources Of the British empire
and those of the Boer republics is so
great that neither the British government
nor the countries by whose tone 1t is
accustomed to conduct itself are able ia
realize how quickly the war will come to
an end.
In the British case the group of poll
ticians in charge of the nations affairs
are not more than half awake and if the
provisions hitherto made to conduct the
war prove insufficient there would be
considerable delay before fresh exertions
by way of preparation. would produce a
visible effect
hardly expect the Boer campaign will
last much more than three months, but
l would not be surprised if the effective
occupation of the whole country required
q further six months of continuous effort
There are now under the command of
Lord Roberts altogether 10000 men, and
if the most liberal deductions be made for
casualties of all sorts. for occupation, fer
garrison left on the communication and
for troops stated in the districts lately
disaffected, and if we allow that there
may be in Natal 10000 to supply a field
force of 80, 600. there is still abundant ma
terial for Lord Roberts to attack the
Beers with force outnumbering then
hole army. On the lowest estimate of
what The Boer- commander of Natal can
do he must hold fast a respectable por-
ton of the Roer forces.
The remainder cannot, without great
danger, fight a pitched battle against
Lord Roberts. for in that case his at
tack will certainly enveIop them and In
volve them in disaster
AT the best they can delay him and har-
ass his cor1munic& ton 1t is little more
than months march from Bloemfontein
to Pretoria The Beers by the various
eXpedients open to them, of rear guard
action and of raids on the communica-
tions, may prolong this time by couple
of months, but in the process, even
though they should escape crushing de-
feat, their army would be used UP. After
that there is nothing left to them but
guerrilla warfare or an almost wholesale
trek to the north.
This appears to me to be the normal
forecast. but I have no personal knowI-
edge either of the country or the peopIe.
ana there are many unknown elements.
which conceal various possibilities which |
CT mot gauge. The whole of South Africa
is inhabited BY Kaffir tribes, WHO far out
number all tie white settlers. If the
I<affirs were to join in the fight on one
side or the other, no one could foresee
what would happen. A second set of pos
sibilities lies in the general course of tie
worlds affairs. The longer the duration
Of the war, the greater the scope for the
occurrence OF unexpected events in some
ether quarter of the globe, which might
modify the whole situation