New-York tribune., 1900-11-11
Financial.
The Financial World.

Slnce election, has been beyond all anticiDati0r
or calculation. The financial community havs
been taken by surprise. because no one had an
adequate conception of the extent to which a.,
trust had permeated the public mind. OnIv bv,
What has happened since dstrust was dissipatsd
by last Tuesdays vote. measure the d.
gree to which it had numbed the Industrial
and financial energies of the country 1t snf
hces to say, that the business done on the Stool,
Exchange from Wednesday to Saturday far sx-
Ceeds the record for any four days in its bistor1
that the average for each full day was in excess
of 100000 shares; that in yesterdays two
hours of business. over 500 600 shares were dona
or at the rate of 2.O0OOOO shares for full dav.
and that this enormous business has been done
at rapidly rising prices. the advance ranging
from about two to twelve per cent.
But even this Is not the most surprising +aa+
ure of the week That is to be found in the sc
tfon OF the money market. A week ago the sur
plus reserve Of the banks was down to about
s6OOOOOO; and interest rates had run up to 20
and - per cent. 1t seemed impossible that
with such moderate reserve. a large business
could be done in stocks without so depicting this
reserve as to cause loan rates to run up to pro-
hibitive figures. Just the opposite happened
Money poured into the market in such abun
dance. that whereas the call loan rate started
at D per cent on Wednesday morning before the
day was out it had gone down to 4 per cent
and since then money has actually loaned as low
as L and per cent. And this with a boiling
stock market.
There is only one explanation. Political dis
trust had for a long while past been quietly cur
failing credits locking up lOanable funds and
silently pressing individuals and institutions to
make themselves strong as possible against
the financial shock which all knew would come
with Bryans election. When il appeared that
not only was he defeated, but the defeat was so
overwhelming as to bury the free silver faIlacy
forever. the revulsion OF feeling was tremendous
The tension gave way. Locked up money poured
out from bank. trust compan and financial firm.
the frozen up streams of credit broke and
flowed again. and interest rates went down
while securities bounded up
The unanimous verdict OF the country victors
and vanquished alike agreeing is that free
silver buried Bryan: and with this second and
overwhelming defeat. free silver itself is buried
for ever; and the gold standard, the common
standard Of the world, is irrevocably established
The feeling of confidence this gives was ex-
pressed by a leading banker after the extent OF
the victory became known. For the first time
in nearly thirty years of business" said he II
feel that we can 60 on and do business without
having to take thought OF possible disturbances
OF money values"
We can see now that the haunting sense Of
trouble with the currency has been operating on
the country for nearly a year. certainly since
the middle OF last winter The big capitalists
and others sold out all but their strict invest
ment lines OF securities in the winter and
spring; and no new enterprises were consid red
by them, however promising they might look
Only the strongest OF them. and the more dar-
ing 'plungers'' in speculation, were buyers OF
stocks just before election. The public did not
buy. and not many OF the professionals The
risk OF loss seemed too great. How. now do the
leading conservative flnanciers and the leading
operators look at the future?
Briefly this-that with the incubus Of political
dtstrust removed. the country will experience an
era OF commercial expansion greater than that
which started with the close OF the Spanish
war; greater than 1t has ever known In its his
tory. That the bank clearings will record a
larger internal trade than was ever known be-
fore: that our export trade Will break even lis
recent great records: that we shall export
manufactured goods to all parts Of the world in
money value large crop exports have
BEEN that prices OF securities as a result OF this
Will go higher than they did in the last boom;
and that the business done the Stock Ex-
change will be larger for given time than any
thing yet recorded.
They believe that for a long time to come
how long Of course no man can say-that every
recession of the market will be followed by a re-
covery which Will put prices higher than they
were before.
We have now over - millions OF people, aver
aging higher in intellectual activity and indus
trial energy than any similar number OF people
in the world. The possibilities which this opens
for the future. beyond ordinary calculation.
One of the things which Will be seen is a growth
OF earnings by the systems of roads running to
the Pacific coast which. by the time the next
census Is taken. will make them double and
even treble What their yearly aggregate is now
In connection with this. reference may again
be made TO a matter which has been in the
air. for some time. viz. the readjustment Of
relations between the Pacific systems made
necessary and possible by the death OF Mr.
Huntington The first sign OF this was when
the Morgan buying of Northern Pacific started.
the stock being then about As. Since then
have had the movement in Pacific Mail. which
may be considered minor detail OF the gen
eral plan; and again. lastly. enormous dealings
in Southern Pacific-dealings which. like those in
Northern Pacific. are too large to be the out
come OF ordinary speculation.
What this new deal. Of which Northern Pa
cifc seems TO he the centre. will turn out TO be.
is still well kept secret. All that seems TO be
known is that deal Of magnitude is under
way: that the voting trust is to he dissolved,
if that has not been done already; that union
in some form with other roads IS planned; and
lastly. it is positively asserted by people sup
posed TO know something. that Northern Pacific
will sell at greatly higher than present prices
The prediction in this column made some time
ago that Union Pacific would sell at 40 il the
election right. holds good and is not
great way from fulfilment The figure was
named by an authority which has never yet
named price for stock or bond which did not
turn out TO be from five to ten points below what
nj tIrNaf fAlyr