Daily Kennebec journal. [microfilm reel] (Augusta, Me.) 1870-1975, 1900-04-12
An Electoral Forecast.

| think of the value of their deductions.
| much interest attaches to them ana
the political prophet always iindS
! listeners. a recent writer in the Bos-
ton Transcript. as fair and unpreju-
diced 4 paper as exists in the country,
argues that President Mckinleys re-
election is as certain as any future
event can be. He assumes. as he is
justified in doing, that Mckinley and
| Rryan will be the two candidates, and
| That others need not be considered as
affecting the result. He recognizes
that the Republican party is united
and enthusiastic, and that it is in little
danger Of going into the campaign
handicapped by over-confidence. The
country has prospered under Republi-
can rule, and the people have conf
dence in the honesty and wisdom of
the administration. Great events have
followed each other rapidly in the
past three years and new and momen-
tous problems have been presented,
but the Republican administration has
The people will refuse with unmistak-
able emphasis to make a change.
Organism has much less to recommend
it now than it had i'll 1896
Looking upon the situation in this
impartial manner, the Transcript
writer says that problem for next
| November is simple
Mr. Bryan in~1S96 received 176 electo-
raj votes and Mr. Mckinley III. For
purposes Of computation a correction
should be made in these figures. In
both California and Kentucky one
Bryan elector squeezed in, the contest
ran 50 close, and hence the states
which actually voted for Mckinley are
entitled to 213 electors. while those
which voted for Bryan have IA. a
difference Of 80 This means that i
net loss Of states having just 80 cleo
toral votes would this year elect Mr..
lbIN I'LL, III bN lHS buL liz llIII'lp''i'l
event Of Il divided electoral ticket
anywhere, such as that in the two
states named in 1896. The practical
question then comes. Where is Mr..
Bryan tl set his 20 votes? Maryland
ana Kentucky east respectively AMI
Il votes West Virginia casts +. Indi-
ana casts T.. This makes ~ votes. 4
number which Mr- Mckinley could
lose and still BE- elected. even if h.
gained nothing from The Bryanitrs i'll
any other quarter.
II is a little hard to $50 amy other
state which voted for Mckinley i'll 1896
that il at all liable til ~ Democratic
this year. OF course. there is Della
ware which might BE- thrown in for
good measure without changing the
result But the great states Of the At
lantic seaboard which We're formerly
relied upon for Democratic support.
cut, cannot by any reasonable calcula-
tions be expected to vote for free
silver candidate. Their majorities in
1896 We're 50 overwhelming as To settle
that question, in spite Of the lesscned
interest in the money issue as this
campaign opens. Of the great states
Of the Mississippi valley which really
control America today, the same is
true, except Of Indiana. which is ira
ditionally rather Democratic. Such
majorities as the Republicans have Of
late been getting in the West can
hardly be reversed. In Illinois Mckin-
| ley's plurality was 10000. In Iowa it
was e. 600, and the Republican candi-
| date for governor only last November
| Mr.. Leslie NJ. Shaw, was elected over
Fred White, the Democratic candidate
| and his competitor Of two years before
| by an increased majority. IT would
| apparently require, then an avalanche
10 upset the Republican preponderancn
IN any Of the New England, Middle
Atlantic or Mississippi valley states.
| With the exception Of Indiana. cali
fornia and Oregon, which were barely
saved for Mckinley in 1896 have been
giving increased Republican majorities
ever since. There is no reason now
apparent for supposing that the It'd"
| there is at all receding
| Nor are the Republicans without
| opportunity for making very consider
able gains. The little state Of Wash
| ington. which has but four electoral
votes. gave Bryan 4 plurality Of 12ooo
ne vote standing 10000 to $1,000. only
two years later the state completely
swung about, the vote standing $4,000
ID 10000; the Republicans elected both
members Of Congress, ana a Lcsisla-
ture, which stands s. Republican. Il
| Populist ana 9 Democratic. 1t looks