The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1900-09-09

ment. by 1als1yInH meHlOiy ehuO'o hus"
tory the results Of experience.
No less remarkable is the effect OF a strong
desire upon expectation. In an act OF antici-
patton the Judgment Is TO a certain extent
freed from the correctives and checks which
restrain ua from error in realizing the present
and recalling the past. There Ia thus room
for a greater degree OF error due 20 prejudice
and desire. Such errors are frequently Oh
servable in acts OF anticipation. The mind
tends 20 restore the equilibrium between pain
and pleasure and TO renew Its vigor by con-
trasting with a dismal past or unsatisfactory
present the expectation OF a pleasing future.
Such are. In truth. the Joys OF hope. just In
proportion as the course OF the future Ia I'M
certain are our beliefs regarding II likely TO be
formed according TO our wishes. We know
that subjective states exercise more control
over the imagination than over any other
form Of mental activity. Now the field OF
Imagination lies close to that Of expectation.
fnasmuch as the tendency Of Imagination is to
picture what is desired, optimism Is apt to
characterize ones view OF the future generally.
Such optimism, according n Arthur Crimp
an authority upon stock markets, Ia apt to
characterize the Spectator, The most brill
liant good fortune which may result from a
SPECTATORS operations generally falls below
his anticipations when the operations are re-
duced 70 figures. 1t appears that the magma
ton gets. as II were. diseased, by feeding on
the contemplation Of very rapid gains; and
that. whatever may be the reality Of a hypo-
thetical gain. the mind gets bewlldered, and fails
to estimate az possible factors OF loss, the
surrounding husks I'm which the fruit II en-
closed What we might logically expect In
the future from analogy In the past Is not what
we do actually expect. We all know for In
stance. that a person plans for a certain period
OF the future more work than he will be able
to accomplish. A man pictures 10 himself
greater success and happiness than IA likely
10 be his actual lot. Obviously. this phenom-
enon results in considerable part from the in
huenoe OF an absorbing desire. What IL wildly
imagined and intensely hoped for tends 70 be
come, little by little, a matter planned for.
and. finally. expected with more and more con-
1dence. All this may take place without the
addition Of any new confirming objective
reality. We are reminded that Shakespeare
often put his finger on this weakness OF human
character. When Prince Henry. supposing
his father dead. takes the crown from the brow
Of the sleeping king and his father calls him
20 account, the prince says: Il never thought
TO hear you speak again" The king replies,
"Thy wish was father. Harry, to that thought "
Similarly, Caesar. In his Gallo Wars, observes
that men willingly credit what they want TO
credit dtbenier homfn,s ID Quod roIuni crsdunf).
Young said. What we ardently wish we soon
believe" and Bacon. mems thoughts are much
according 10 their Inclination"
The application Of these observations TO the
subject OF crises will be plain enough when We
consider the effect which an intense desire to
accumulate wealth has upon the conduct
Of an Individual in economic matters. The
activa annruatiC md aalf-rali0Dt mon who
naturally become leaders in an industrial So
ciety are Of the intellectual type most prone
10 optimistic e1aggeration. Experience proves
that to optimistic persons gambling Is partic'I-
larry easy. Certain II Is that credullty begets ex-
periments, and provides a harvest for fraud.
Az BaRehot has noted, "the good times when
high prices prevail almost always engender
much fraud. All people are most credrlot:s
when they are most happy; and, when much
money has lust been made, when some people
are really making II, and when most people
think thcv are making it. there il n happy
opportunity for ingenious mchdacity." The
exaggeration Of economic prospects hegets
not only activity, hut falsely directed activity,
the outcome Of which Is the erection Of a COM
marcial structure, which, at some point In
its upbuilding, must fall in disastrous ruin
because Of its inherent weakness. That such
HI oNtT'Di' FlNl wv VI hN'i''' ~ 'hN'h
wealth as will bring about this result does exist
In the chief nations which have passed into the
stage Of Industrial freedom Is positively afll med
BY many Of the most influential thinkers OF oCr
day.
We have seen that desire viii largely shape
expectation where objective data for judgment
are defective, and where the matter Is involved
in uncertainty. 1t is needless 10 point out
that the course Of modern business Is uncertain
in the extreme. Business ventures being
based on future contingencies. IL IL clear that.
as the market widens and the number of COM
~petitors increases, uncertainty must increase.
The lines Of business which have been con-
spicuous for their uncertainty have, many
OF them. been conspicuous also for the crises
experienced in them. An element of nncer-
tainty Is conspicuouslv connected with most
crises. For instance in France in 1910, the
specu'ation to which John avs Mississippi
scheme gave rise turned on the probable future
value OF an exclusive privilege given 10y TTancr
10 a company to trade in the little-known region
OF the East Indies. China and the South Seas.
In England in 1920, speculation pivoted on the
probability that the South sea company would
obtain exclusive grants OF trading privileges
from Spain. and upon the value thereof. In
Holland, from 1894 to 1875. the element Of I'M
certainty lay III Nv BlpHlf'NN' N'lluHh W
the world for certain varieties OF tulips The
Industries Of the present day encounter the
degree Of uncertainty required for crises In the
complex conditions which determine the Course
OF the worlds markets. Foreign trade has
always been noted for its uncertainties, and
It has been equally noted for the extravaganccs
which have been associated with it, Again
the organization Of business Is now such that it
does not furnish an immediate check to unwise
activity. The system is one which permits
the imitation OF values and an overdraft Of
credit for a period long enough TO give an i'm
petus 10 unsound undertakings. and TO impart
an unfounded confidence in succesSt ~ operators
who may be. as a matter Of fact, on The straight
road 10 disaster.
In a footnote our author shows that natural
optimism is sufficient In many instances 10
account for this feeling Of success. There
has never been a successful gambler who has
not believed that his success Temporary
though such success ever is where games Of
pure chance nre concerned las been the re-
suit Of shilful conduct on his own part, and
there never has been a ruined gambler Though
ruined gamblers are to be counted by thou
sandsl who has not believed that. when ruin
overlook him, he was On the very point Of