Virginian-pilot. (Norfolk, Va.) 1898-1911, 1900-03-08
PRICE, MCCORMICK & CO.'S
Cotton Circular.
Now York, March It'll. 1sot

New York, March 7th, 1900
The cotton market closed weak to-day,
In view of which the following may not
DO regarded as without interest. On
Wednesday. the 18th of August, 1899. Au-
gust contracts in New York. which rep
resent the prico of middllng cotton. sold
ut 559 Yesterday, the 9th OF March,
nearly seven months later March con-
tracts which represent tho basis mddllng
prices. sold at 9.63. making n net advance
in less than seven months OF about 40
points.
Tho extreme variation In any previous
year since 1871. according to Shepperson's
cotton facts. has been Lice. In 1875, $40
in 1878. 4iec. III 1879, SLIGO in 1892 13-lGc
in 1895. 1t will thus be seen that this sea-
sons pendulation. as compared with any
previous season for tho past % years had
only been once exceeded, and then only
by about 10 points, In most previous
cases, the extremes have resulted from
tho secondary effect or an anticiEatcd
damage TO Il. succeeding crop. In no case
has the reimbursement of the relation be-
tween the demand and supply for any
| crop led to such an extreme nuctuation us
VIC have had this year, us u result of the
shortage OF the crop OF 1S99-19cO In our
opinion, the advance in the market has
been exaggerated greatly, because of the
bad distribution of this crop. Mr.. Ncilrs
prediction OF tho 100000 bales made early
in Tho season led Europe to believe that
cur supplies could be secured at moderate
prices. and from nearly the commence
mont OF tho year until q few weeks ago,
foreign consumers insisted upon MAIN
tanning this position The result was q
small stock in, I Il
large short interest thero in the shape OF
contracts or uncovered requirements Of
spinnors. During the past week, however
Europe has recognized the pcrilousnes, of
hes position, ana has bought pcrsistemtiy
and insistently, until the position is al
most reversed. Bankers report to us that
tho offerings of bills against cotton e,y-
ports within the past ten days have in
creased very largely, and demand eX-
change has fallen from St.S1?s % Sl.SiSi in
consequence Imports of gold in the near
| future seem not improbable. Competent
authorities estimate that the amount of
| exchange so sold within the past ten days
| Is not far from S51.U00,oo0. which. Mt pres
ent prices for cotton. would represent an
export shipment OF nearly 10000 bales
Our cable advices Indicate that hand in
| hand with this buying on the part OF con-
sumcrs there has developed an enormous
speculation In cotton futures. in which
many spnncrs have participated, and we
arc led TO believe that the result Is n
very dangerous speculative position in E,u-
rope. Meantime. the New York market
| has broken sharply. having decli3ed from
the top prices for August contracts some
&c points. Conservative holders of cotton
| during the past two days have marked a
very largo portion OF their holdings. These
| sales have. for the most part. passed
either to new speculative buyers whose
| Judgment is net so much 10 he relied
| upon, or have met the warts OF shorts.
In either case. the demand thus supplied.
technically considered. is an element OF
| weakness rather than OF strength a
shcrt interest on advancing market is adj
miuedly explosive In the direction OF
| higher prices until it is covered. 4 long
interest. created at high prices. VIII be
found to he held by very nervous buyers.
whose entire hope of profit rests in the
expectation that the market will react TO
the previous high level, and who, when it
fails 10 do so. will be sprtless sellers.
Those who have bought cotton upon the
| reiterated prediction that IL would go TO
six pence in Liverpool and IL cents in
tory probably lind that such predictions
arc always current at the top. II the in
ability to recognize the top OF any spccu-
lativc market were universal, that top
would never he reached Tho whole ma
chnery OF speculation is devised TO an
ticipatc the future. and. in our opinion in
both Europe and America, it has abuntl-
antly discounted 1t already by, as stated
| at the commencement of this circular n
Formulation In price which has never been
eaua!ed on any single crop. and has only
onco been exceeded under any condition
in the past y years For thcsc reasons
We continue TO believe that purchases, OF
cotton at present prices are unwise; that
sales will probably show profit. and that
those who own the article. either epec,,-
lativcly or rs consumers. will consult their
own best interests by the acceptance of
current prices.
(Signcd)