The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1900-06-03
FEWER FAVORITES WIN.
AND STAKES HORSES ARE "a BLAME
O THE FALLING OFF.

O THE FALLING OFF.
while They Are Not Running - Trae 10 Form
as Heretofore. the Despised Youngsters
Arc Building Up . Record for Rslia.
bility That IL Confounding Old P1nters.
An analytical study Of the racing at the big
Eastern tracks brings to light tho solution
Of many problems which have been puzxling
the followers Of the sport. but. unfortunately.
the solution Is too often only the door to another
problem. This issomewhat Of a paradox. bus
none the less true.
1t has been repeatedly noted In the columns
Of H Sun that there has been a steady de-
crease In the number Of winning first ~favorites
for the past two years, and that this has been
Offset. 40 far as the gain or loss to the punter
is concerned. by a steady increase In the odds
laid against hrst choices. In this way. while
winning a smaller number Of bets, the puntsP
has actually been in q position to mako more
money on a given hundred or moro transao-
tons. The why and wherefore Of the decrease
In winning f~avorites IL one Of the racing prob
lens OF the day. and Is laid TO various causes.
One Of these Is the barrier. Many well-in-
formed men claim that the use OF the barrier
has. to a large extent. destroyed form. T.at
Ia to say, II a good horse breaks fst-footed,
anu q pOoioi oicc hoppViis 10 LioNiuS WHoh
the barrier Is raised. the poorer horse viii
possibly win, where. under the old system
OF starting, the good horse would have been
mannuvred by his good Jockey and obtained
q more even break. Az an Endorsement Of
this view Is pointed out the almost total slimins-
ton OF the old-ume large bettor. such a. N.
Dwyer, and Grammar. the only ono remaining
being Pittsburs Phil. on a greatly reduced and
more conservative basis. L'Hommedieu and
others may perhaps DO entitled to some con
sidsradon from the more modern standpoint,
but the day Of the man who will place $4,000
In the ring to win q. 1000. as NJ. Dwyer did land
lost the bet) Is past and gone. The barrier ID
scarcely TO be taken as the reason for the change
by unbiased thinkers. although 1t may have
something to do with II, but during the first year
of Its use little or no change In the percentage
OF winning f~avorites was noticed. and 1t should
surely have been more strongly demonstrated
BOYS are more or less accustomed to its use.
Whatever the cause of the phenomena, the
trouble appears TO be that while two.year,olds
In minor two-year-old events. and selling
platers In selling races, are running fairly true
10 form, Notwithstanding the barrier ard ito
supposedly deterrent qualities, IN the stake
t tsns and hSrs sss s slLds p mes fSsn ~ s sI " 9 ,bs sa fnTof fis
In stake races to win. TO the utter exclusion OF
all other races. Is to-day a pretty sure avenue
In years gone by It was the maxim Of
most turf veterans to let the two-y ear-old
races severely alone. The argument was
I ilnfSi s 70 Do ali tx kinds d [ of tSInssa and {U Snl'i ,sey
were out OF their swaddling clothes and became
staid and correct members OF equine society
S4eSed "G mo as 3 Speculation 1Ss iSts,nes and risk Wn' As
a matter Of fact, for the past six years or so
the running, OF the two-year-olds has been
races races e schedaiea for IN , lsSs; al r- old 's at Morris
Park. twelve ~favorites won and ten lost, or
"a per cent. and in 1904 at the same track twelve
the Intervening years following along that
line to 1899, when in eighteen two-year-old
races at that track nine f~avorites won
:pfins s'H' 1900 .ss'' or nine ne De won Sen' and ans si,t ss's
per cont 1t must also be remembered that
d i In fact. any one who will take the troubls
to look up two-year-old statistics will be sur
prised at the consistency shown. In one case
Gold Link and, another horse ran first, second
and third In three races, so that each horse
in turn was first. second and third
The failure OF the ~favorites to connect 10
apparently to be found in, the stake races,
q viii be seen by the following resume Of
M Ne los, Ps %d r Tommy A tRs su AZ sIi w sos f'T TX.
mont the favorite lost and Kiloersm Io-I won.
a ans l tSs f.So1i, sHf lost .sv sna Educate d . r ii s son.
The st. Nicholas the fayorite lost and Gov.
Grisgs 81 won. The Harlem the f~avorite
at ii. The Fashion f%avorite from the Pep
per stable lost TO Anecdote 81. The Wlthers
In the New York Steeplechase the favorite
ran a dead heat with an 81 shot. The Bay
chester was won by the f~avorIte. lldrlm. In
was ~favorite. The Knickerbocker ~favorite
vas beaten by Lsckland at Al: The Ven
rs favorite. First Whip. Belle Of Lexington
the Caremont, Bpnnibert carried the Ma
Queen beat the ~favorite. Indian Fairy. In the
Ladies. The international. Steeplechase was
won by Van Ship at 81 defeating the favorite.
back seat in the Pocantico. and Tulane did
the same trick in the Amateur Cup. Sweet
Lavender az ~ won from the favGrite In ne
Van Cortland. and the Eclipse and the Bel
mont found the ~favorite beaten In both events.
of the meeting only seven ~favorites won, or
not quite ~ per cent. Truly. here Is food for
reflection,
politan. New York steeplechase. 81, Nicholas.
Withers. Baychester, Laureate, Kn~ickerbocker.
Pocantico Amateur Cup. Gaiety, Van Cert
land and Belmont. This was thirteen winning
favorites. or IS per cent. in the twenty-seyen
more. important stakes. Going back TO 1894
1t will be found that in the twenty-four leading
NNdhts INN uttH NOH, VI D y pNi vent NV suub
In 1898 fourteen ~favorites won in thirty-one
stakes, or As per cent. These were the halcyon
DAYS Of %favorite players, when Morris Park
totalled winning f~avorites in 1892 Of q per cent.
In 1893 Of IS per cent. and in 1894 Of 40 per cent,
the total average OF these three years at all
jockey Club meetings being. 1892, 70 per cent?
1898. Il per cent. and 1894, so per cent.
In 1898 we had two-year-old flyers such 20
Dolly Warden. Miss Galop.. Declare and Hal.
Harry Reed and CopnoiseuE: but how much
Tommy Atkins and Sweet lavender Not
much. from a lime standpoint. This year
5sH and Educate In 80. In 1890 Trumpet
ran the distance in 50 and Pupil IN 6sH. Away
back in 1904 Is found Nanki Pooh running i've
furlonss in 50, and IN 1893 Declare hangs up
68& for the Galliard Stakes.
Thus the two. year olds are and have been
consistent, while the stake races have been
lost by the favorites and have mainly gone
TO the second choices. The selling plstefs
run somewhat In and out, but the favorito
average with them keeps very steady. Tho
decrease Of winning fsyorites, shown in the
gross total OF a meeting, is TO be laid at the door
OF the stake horses, This should be q valuable
pointer for heavy investors.