New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1900-04-02
THE COMING CENSUS.

Perhaps the population Of the United States
will become known this year. 1t has not been
accurately known for long time, as those who
have studied previous census reports are aware.
That the census of 1870 was defective owing
TO the singular inadequacy of the old law
under which it was taken, has long been recog-
nized. and shown by the results of the
census of 1880, which on the whole the
best ever taken, but because of the errors of
1870 there was established no trustworthy basis
on which TO reckon the rate of increase from
1880 onward. The calcula tons of the Actuary
Of the Treasury Department, though fortified by
elaborate examinations of the losses by war,
brought out estimates officially published for
1889 which exceeded by 1865 900 the popula ton
indicated for that year by the census of 1890.
Then at once the correctness of that census was
questioned, and to New York and some other
points evidence was obtained strongly indicat-
Ing that partly owing TO absence Of many resi-
dents from the city in the hummer, the enumer-
alton was defective. Statements of births can
not be kept with such accuracy as to establish
for the whole country a rate of excess of births
over deaths that rate being not the same in
cities and in country districts. The official
record Of immigrants from Canada which was
Of some service, though defective, was stopped
in 1885, SO that the increase by immigration can
only thing certain about the population for
nearly twenty years past is that the number is
not known.
The manner in which census problems have
been attacked by Director Merriam gives ground
for hope that the population in 1900 NAV be
ascertained with high degree Of accuracy 1t
is most important for reasons not sentimental
that this should be done Originally required
as the basis of political apportionment the cen
sus has become the basis Of many business cal
culationS and estimates also. 1t worked and
still works. gross injustice in giving to some
States political power proportional 10 the num-
Der of inhabitants who are deprived of all part
in the Government. but that defect II is in the
power of Congress 10 correct Monetary and
business calculations depend upon the increa Sc
in number of consumers and in the rate of con-
sumption. If the population should prove as
many believe, considerably larger than Treas
ury estimates based upon errors in 1890 all cal
culations of wheat or corn, wool or cotton
liquor or tobacco consumption would have to be
reconstructed with allowance for greater
number Of consumers In past years than now
The probability is that the enumeration Of
1890 was too small, so that it indicated lower
figure than the actual rate of excess of births
over deaths Without going into details rate
of 1892 per cent increase added 10 the known
immigration would have worked out from the
reported population of 1880 the probably defec-
i've report of 1890 so that the true rate was
proba bly, higher. Again. the defect in 1870 made
2.O095 per cent. the rate required to work out
from that basis with immigration added 10 the
population reported in 1880. undoubtedly higher
than the actual rate of increase. A gradual de-
cline in the rate had appeared in the decade be-
fore the war. whence il is probable that the
actual rate of excess of births over deaths was
IN 1S70'SO less than 10 per cent, but little