New-York tribune., 1900-11-25
financial.
The Financial World.


stocks the top are specially sure of it. But
those who happened TO get in late. don't think It
is quite so healthy as they would like. Whether
like it or don't like it. however. it has to
come; il is with now and the only point
in doubt is how far it will go. whether 1t has
already gone far as it will This column
will certainly not attempt to make any predic-
tions. The market is the biggest ever known
in Wall Street 1t is beyond the control of any
one man any two men. however great their
wealth. 1t if the whole 70 millions Of
our population were trading in it, Therefore IL
is useless to pretend to do more than guess
what the market will do on any special swing
whether it be up or down. The most that we
can do is to note indications; and the indications
seem to be at this time that the reaction will
have TO go farther.
Having said this. it may also be repeated
what was said here last week. that for 96 per
cent Of the stockS, higher prices will be eventu-
ally made for them than any which mada
in the boom which eliminated last spring; and
for the four per cent which will not do this
there may be offset those which have already
passed their best Of that time. These best prices
include such figures 149 for Burlington; lS6
for st. Paul; 122 for Rock Island; and number
of others, too numerous to detail.
We except the group OF fractions chiefly be-
cause 1t was in these that the widest specula-
ton of last year concentrated; when Metro
politan went to 269: Brooklyn to 137; and Man.
haitian to 133. We do not expect to these
prices repeated in hurry but as to Manhattan,
there is reason to believe that no matter what
the present reaction may be. it will eventually
go to between 120 and 125. The stock has been
the subject OF a variety OF rumors during the
week. chiefly relating to union with the Metro
politan Company. The rumors have been af-
hrmed and denied; but this at least is beyond
denial-that the Manhattan COrnnanv ia
experimenting with system Of traction
which, II successful. there is every promise
OF its being, is calculated TO make earnings OF
at least per cent Manhattan stock, and
that calculation. based on the present volume
OF business. which certainly no one expects to
be less than 1t is at this time. On the contrary
1t must grow with the growth Of the city.
Some doubts may also be raised 10 whether
the steel stocks will repeat their prices of last
year; because in these stocks the speculation
was only less wild than In the fractions Whether
they will or not depends. said last week. on
the good faith or otherwise, with which the
directors act to the public in the matter OF the
dividends. If the directors of the Federal Steel
Company do what friends supposed to be in
their confidence. say that they WILL Federal
Steel will sell well up It's highest Of last year.
which was 75 for the common There is
in the world why 1t should not. provided
what has now been virtually promised shall be
done. In respect to Steel Wire, Mr.. Gates says
II depends upon the directors what dividend
shall be declared. This is true-they must take
the formal action But there is blinking
the fact that Mr.. Gates is the Board OF Directors
He has demonstrated that already. Therefore.
whatever the Board may do body. the pub
lie will say-"Thou art the man" The rumors
that a dividend will be declared. but that
it will be at reduction from the present rate
OF per cent.
AS to those special favorites OF the speculative
public at this time. the group OF Pacific stocks.
reaction or no reaction. not a jot is abated Of
what was said last week as to the prices which
may be expected for them No attempt was
made to predict where Northern Pacific would
go, because the insiders evidently have some
card up their sleeve which they will play in duA
time and the outsider cannot do more than
guess with one mans guess as good as an
others what the effect will be. With respect
to Southern Pacific, the present price seems fair
for IT, until something new shall develop In re-
spect to the property.
We can calculate about the Atchisons from
the earnings and these only is the estimate
OF possible prices based. There is no deal on.
and none likely. There Is always more or less
i'll defined rumor that the Pennsylvania is buy
ing for control, but this comes from the fact
that so many Pennsylvania men trade in the
stock IT is on the earnings the Atchison is
n akfng that the predictions based that the
< per cent preferred stock will go into the S0s-
What the common may do is a different matter
but as ii is seen month by month what the earn
ings are the stockholders will begin to see that
a dividend is in sight. 1t is just we'll more
over 10 have an eye on the adjustment bonds
II comes from several good sources that they
going up.
Union Pacific went to "A the other day, It
fell back to IL when the market had its sharpest
reaction and later recovered somewhat. An In
vestment price of 20 for this stock may be con-
sfdered as about established This holds good
while the stock pays no more than per cent
Since the stock has been written about in this
column 1t has been raised from non dividend
payer to one of per cent; from 3 per cent 10 1:
and there Is no reason to suppose that per
manent stop has been made at that figure With
each raise, the predicted price at which the
stock would sell has been raised here. No posi-
tive prediction is now made that the stock Will
sell at 80 in the next upward surge Of the mar
ket; but it may be said that such figure Is
among the proba bilities.
In so big market there many features
of interest. large and small that it would take
a column to merely note them. One would like
to discuss the London dealings. which are be-
coming more and more an important factor; the
money movements. the relation OF foreign ex-
change TO the present speculation; and also TO
Indicate reasons for expecting certain Of the low
priced stocks TO advance. such Texas Pacinc.
Lake Erie & Western and some others: but
luckily for the reader-there is not space
The attitude OF some Of the large operators TO
the market has been brought into controversy
by the weeks reaction Mr.. Gates has been