The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1900-01-21
MISTAKES OF THE PUNTERS.
c.rsEs Of FxTLUREs To WIN ON
THE RACE TRACKS.
False Reasoning About Favorit's = me
Alleged Percentage In Favor OF tho
Bookmaker-The Succession OF winning
Fa,orites at Morris Park Lnst Year.

Fai.e Reasoning About fnVories Ane
Alleged Percentage In faSor OF the
BooLmaker-The Succession OF winning
Fa,orites at Morris Park Laat Year
Many betting men say. Il cannot stand playing
tayori,es," " but II asked why. have no valid reason
To give. az a rule. except that they lus' cannot
Ills no, the odds. Tor thss vary iromi-ltoltO on,
and somewhere in this range every one must DO
suited ltcannot be the scarcity Of wins, because
more f~ayortps win in a hundred races than horses
nj any uther ptce. Take the ~favori,es At thstrack
from 40 on, tosI. II has been demonstrated maj
the average is 10 for the season, yet tho
unintormed men pass all the shorter prices and
wait for the few FL or over chances. whereas II
they would play from the longest price to the 20
recon meni led by the scale principa! Of tho integral
~ stem, the odds would he nearly the FL they are
sig hing for Here Is where the practical man,
who il A business man FIRST and q spsculator next,
wins money, and his Is the smiling lace which
looks 10 tho complacent $ eyes every
spring, mutely says; I've come to take another
fall QUITO If you, and straightway proceedsto dolt
At the wheel the dead sure player tries to win
by dividing his wager among the numbers but
at the track the punter tries to play for place or
third, and while the wheel man is wandering
around the attractive but elusive groves OF SOL
on n limited bet, his brother at the track Is fooliug
with even money. l, 2. 8. to save his stake, a most
pernicious form OF speculation except at odds oil
more than 81 for third. Even then there
Is not ono In q hundred who knows how 10 place
his bet. II is the principle Of saving his stake
that rules, whereas II one must play this way IL
should be exactly tho reverse. In other Words
the multitude Of bets TO be cashed must be for the
!. .. 3, and therefore that is the place to look for
the cash which will coverlosses when the horseis
further away than third, and II there is $50 to be
placed, the proper division on a l0-l shot is Soto
win and SIS for third. OF in other words, play "a
II tor the third pl ace stake only with the straight
win on the side for dividend. Possibly 20 per cent.
Of the long shots fail TO win. while many Of them
get third OF better. and, as explained before, this
Is simply a matter II average. the number Of wins
and the price ranking together. there being more
f~avortes at a 10 average than horses TO win at
2O1 average. Somed day somebody will figure out
the percentage of horses with odds from 10 to
col which win. get the place, or finish third, and
it will be interesting, though Of no speciai specu-
lative value. In this split bet variation the table
player is ahead Of the turf man although. perhaps,
he knows 1t not.
4 curious and we'll known thing Is the unshak-
able optimism Of the racing punter, AZ distin-
guished from the optimism Of the taker Of o'l,r
risks The racing man looks over the card, re-
calls past performances, picks the most favored.
and having IN ade up his own mind as to its merits
he argues, bfowbeats, ridicules the ideas Of any
other horse. II his horse loses be has no expl ana
tic NJ to give, no reasons 10 advance, but, without
recollection. apparently. Of the failure TO connect,
he is lust as rabid, Just as certain, over some
marvellously good thing for the next race, and
the next, and the next, and this goes on from
day 10 day, nothing PLEASING him so long as he
has money or can find some one to play his Sc
lections On a commission basis, Al the tables
all is changed, The player has seldom any sug-
gestiuns 10 offer, certainly none 10 advance as
TO the foolishness Of his neighbor's play; his COM
panions could play all night on both colors sinful
taneously and never provoke a remark from him;
he Just simply plays and that is all, Why IL
this Simply because he has no records, Theirs
is no basis for an argument. lie fancies black
or he fancies red. and lie either sticks TO one Or
the other, or he trps back and forth, Just as IN
the spur Of the moment its strikes him thai, tho
colors are likely TO run or the numbers fall.
A curious fallacy held by many experienced
men is that one Is bound sooner or later 20 lose
all he has because Of the percentage against him.
This is all nonsense. one pays SO a day TO get
10 AMI enter the track, say 10 make six SIS bets,
a tJtal risk IT S33 on the day, with n 10 per cent.
kitty, but n one looks at II Just IN that way, and
there is no cutlery thateyentually this must eat
mp all. \ horse opens AT 60.l, as S'ngster did
AT .~AqueduCt lall meeting, and in less han a min.
ute was 10 |, at which price II won; what was
the lost percentage 4 odds by those who p~cTfCrCo
accepted l5-l, aad how much were they OUT
Does II not rather stani 10 reason that II a man
rises q winner from table, wheel ~ track, in his
winning are MT only his contributions 10 the
kltty or what II 4, bur also those q every one else
plus the amount whicn really AMI actually comes
out Of the house purse, tAIs being cAartly the
amount over what m" kitty contained, 81 that
--I - - 1su--V1 a IAY-, - a., -, II -
kitty, but simply establishes a fund tor tte players
~ play tot aul Oh this basis the winnings If the
lucky one ar simply decreased O. n certain per
centage ard the ss's are not increased for the
simple reas n that every one wins sometimes.
There is q wldh and impurtant difference between
dccreA,l1c a win and Increasing a loss At the
up the %principal Well, what about the zerrs If
the track, the dead heats hen Riley GAnnen
made his spectacular play in the Navarro"
race. he simply stacked up against a possibility
Of win and loss: it !, q hundred to one he never
thought Of a dead heat, yet his odds being Is
acaiustthe Ellelslie horse he raked in 81 % every
SO invested with him, or Just 10 per cent. on his
book, while, by an cyclash, the punter struck
oae Of the must magnificent and Spectacular Of
racing zerbs, one which was assuredly worth
paving 'or 1t was said that Grammar made
5000 ON thai one race. An these ideas become
inrriined in the minds Of many racing men.
generally Of small calihre. though there ore eX.
ceptions To- this rule, and these ideas may he car
ricd t. curious eNcesSes. Such are the gum
Of the Spectator whp runs IN phenomena rather
than IN records Of whath has gone before, = curious
phase of which was the playing Of Peter the Greet
some years ago at Sheepshead by a well known
figure in the theatrical world, because he ran
third to Domin , ms shown by the hack Of the PR
rramme. Peter finished tenth and investigation
sh wed that the third To- Domino" was in q three.
horse race in which Peter was beaten of forty
odd lengths
In the following table of winning favorites at
Morris Park in 1899, those fnishin- first are
marked 4, the second and ~unplaced 20"
FIRST p,r. EIoH1H DAT.