Evening star., 1900-08-18
Belief That the Two Powers Will
Have WI az.
DISCUSSION OF HE SITUATION
English Writer'S Opinion of Con-
ditions.in Far East.
APAN AND FIR A NC E

between China and the world Is but pre-
liminary to a great war between England
and Russia, in the opinion of many per
sons. distinguished English writer who
recently Travelled extensively in China, and
who made an exhaustive study of the far
east question says:
There Is no necessity to enter into re-
capitulation Of the incidents which led up
to the outbreak of the war in 1894. 1t is
well known that previous to this Japan was
really arming herself for the purpose of
thwarting the obvious designs of Russia In
the Corean peninsula. The plan of strength
ening the Coreans themselves to the task
Of saving their country from becoming en-
veloped in the Muscovite shadow that was
slowly creeping down from the north, by
the introduction of military and adminis-
trative reforms, was checkmated by the
hostile conservatism of China. War be-
came the final and inevitable expedient II
Japan hoped to retain her influence in Co
rea, and the result was the entire annihila-
ton of China's defensive resources, from
the destruction of the Kowshing, which
was conveying Chinese troops TO Corea. to
the occupation of Wei-hai-wei and the cap
ture of Niu-chwang in the following year.
Attitude Not Understood.
Continuing, the writer says: 1.-The part
played by England during this critical pc
riod in the far east is to some extent In
comprehensive. At first efforts were made
to prevent the war; but Russia, France and
Germany refused to cooperate and the at
tempt was abandoned. Later on, when hos
tilitfes had been definitely entered upon,
second endeavor was made by the British
cabinet to induce the interested powers to
intervene, but with no better success. Up
to this point, therefore, England had acted
as the friend of China, and may even be
said to have afforded her active protec-
ton by warning the Japanese Off Shang-
hal and statfoning a British squadron at
the mouth of the Yang-tse.
When Ii Hung Chang went to Shimo-
noseki in March, 1885, to sue for peace
he adds, 'he had already concluded a Sc
cret treaty with Count Cassini, the Rus
sian penipotentiary, which assured him of
Russia's protection against the demands of
Japan. He was therefore able to sign away
anything he pleased with clear Asiatic
conscience, being well aware that no terri
tory on the mainland would be allowed to
pass into Japanese hands, though 1t is diff
ficult to believe that a person of LIS cum
ming was not perfectly cogniZant of the
fact that the territorial acquisitions saved
from Japan would only be reserved for
Russia. 1t Is to be feared that he not only
knew 1t, but that the knowledge prOfited
him to a large extent. and that he displayed
considerably more business talent over the
transaction than what is called patriotism
In spite of the warnings delivered by Sir
Henry Rawinson quarter of a century
political authorities since, the writer goes
on to say. an extraordinary infatuation
seems to have always possessed British
governments to ignore the pressing danger
of Russia's s advance on the northwestern
frontiers of the Indian empire. But today
1t Is not only in central Asia that we are
menaced: there is prospect of India being
surrounded by the northern Colossus and
his French ally The advance of Russia
during the present century through the
barren steppes of central Asia, unless due
to wanton stupidity, points only in d.
rection. 1t Is inconceivable that blood and
treasure should have been poured out un-
stinted by successive generations for the
object of acquiring vast tracts of mostly
sterile and Improbable land, sparsely popu-
lated by uncivilized, marauding tribes; but
when the rich provinces Of India are
marked out as the goal of Muscovite ambi-
tion the logic Of the situation becomes ap-
parent.
India in jeopardy.
IF Russia is allowed to swallow northern
China" he says, "the safety of India will
be seriously jeopardzed. In Chinese T,1r-
kestan the way has already been prepared
by Russian agents: and according to re-
liable Information from authority v-ho
has recently been on the spot, the seizure
of kashsar will take place at no distant
date. This will put Russia in possession of
one Of the best routes to India. and will
add at the same time a most serious factor
to the perplexing problem of frontier de-
fense. Unless decisive blow be struck be-
fore Russia's preparations in Manchuria and
the Liao-tung peninsula are completed it
is difficult to see how Pekin can be saved
from falling into her hands. Japan was
compelled to evacuate her positions in the
peninsula on the ground that her presence
there would be a constant menace to the
capital of China. Russia has now taken
her place: and what was said of the former
power holds good of the latter Pekin lies
or will shortly be placed at the mercy of
the Frankcnstein monster which China her
self has been mainly instrumental in rais-
ing
ing the details of the Russian seizure of
Port Arthur and Talienwan. which are still
fresh in the public memory. But one may
recall the fact that the most positive as
surances were given to the British govern
| ment by Count Mouravieff in the first
place. that the presence of Russian war
ships at Port Arthur in December 1897
was solely due to the convenience of win
| tering there; and, secondly when a diplo-
matte denial of Russias intentions could no
| longer be maintained, that Port Arthur and
| TalienWan would be opened to foreign trade
| in the event of their being leased to that
| power. This system of prevarication has
| supplied the weapons of Muscoyite diplo-
macy from time immemoral; and It has
| been demonstrated over and over again that
| to attempt to meet Russia on her own
| ground Is simply to court defeat. England
was either completely taken In by ST Pc
tersburg's bluff, or she was poWerless TO
| prevent the carrying out of Russia's plans
| In the latter case, one would be inclined
| to ask what had become of our supposed
| predominance in the far east: whereas. tf
| the former were true. it would be advisable
| for this country to adopt wholly different
tactics in respect OF future dealings with a
| nation which cannot be checkmated by or
| dinary diplomatic methods.
French Interests.
| The interests of France remain bound lin
with the development of her influence II,
the southwest provinces of China When
Germany and Russia seized upon their re-
| spective spheres in the north, France con-
| tented herself with once more pressing her
| claim to exclusive political control In the
| province Of Yannan At the same time
she obtained the lease of Kwang-chow bay
| on the Lienchew peninsula opposite the
| Island of Hainan. q
1.-The outcry occasioned by these conces-
sions to Russia, France and Germany will
be too fresh In the memory of the reader
| to need more than aipassing allusfon The
| nation began to realize that England has
been jostled out of her dominant position
In the far east, and the interest of the
world at large which was profoundly ig-
norant concerning the momentous cues
tions at issue, displayed an inconyenient