Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1900-07-21
Secretary Hay Accepts 1t as Abso-
lutely Authentic.
TEE POSSIBILITY OF DECEPTION
If Experts Had Worked Out the
Secret Cipher Code.
NOT A LIK ELY THEORY

iIoLh SoIlSeT yeSteTOdy, Dut lile
| use of the word Impossible by officials in
describing the improbability of any decep-
ton in the matter means no more than ex
treme improbabiity. The internal evidence
of the accuracy of the information Is as
strong as it could be made and does not ad-
nit of doubt in the mind of Secretary
| Hay, who heretofore has been skeptical
about all reports indicating that the foreign
ers in Pekin had escaped death. With such
evidence of authenticity as the dispatch con-
tained, speculations as to the possibility of
deception are profitless, and the dispatch
must be accepted in good faith until the
Whole great mystery is unveiled by the ar
rival of our relief force at Pekin To doubt
1t Is to indulge in the refnements of skepti-
cism.
An Exact Reply.
The dispatch from Conger is an exact re-
ply to that sent by Hay, and it must be
| considered in trying to reason out a doubt
from the wording of the dispatch as pub
| lshed that this is not an exact translation
of the cipher, but is a paraphrase, more or
less remote from the exact text of the
cipher. 1t is from the internal evidences of
the cipher dispatch itself that the DEPART
ment concluded that 1t is entirely trust
| worthy Most of the theories upon which
a doubt might be based are exploded by the
cipher dispatch.
No theory not based upon the assump-
ton that the Chinese foreign Office has
thorough understanding of our cipher code
can stand against the fact that the dispatch
| is undoubtedly an exact reply to the one
sent by Hay. The writer of the Conger
dispatch must have been able to read Hays
dispatch and to write the answer. The
theory that the dispatch was one of earlier
date, which had been Intercepted by the
Chinese and then made use of for the pur-
pose Of deception requires, first that by
remarkable coincidence a dispatch written
by Conger before receiving the inquiry of
the department should be exact reply to
that inquiry; and, second. that the Chinese
should be able to read the cipher so as to
know that 1t would fit as reply. If they
know our State Department cipher well
enough for this then there is no reason
why they might not have conducted the
whole transaction without recourse to any
old dispatch of Congers.
The Doubling Theory.
Any doubt of the matter must be born of
. a desire to doubt, but upon the theory that
nothing is impossible, those who want to do
so may go directly to thereof of the thing
and assume that the Chinese foreign off1ee
is in possession of cur code. One of the
most solemn obligations in which minis
ter is instructed before going abroad is that
he must guard the cipher code as he would
his life In immediate danger of death mis-
first duty would be to destroy the code to
prevent its falling into the hands of
persons not entitled to its use. There is
little room for doubt that if Minister Con-
ger had been reduced to the last extremity
he would have destroyed the code book.
But if the book had fallen into the hands
of the Chinese they could not make use Of
1t without the key.
The only assumption upon which the
theory of deception can reasonably be based
is that of our code having been worked out
by the Chinese cipher experts, not to meet
the pYjQencv of the hOnr buf nv
of years, in accordance with a policy of
having possession of all foreign diplomatic
codes.
1t may be that one reason for the skepti-
cism displayed abroad is that our code is
understood in other foreign offices, and that
from this foreign officials assume that
China likewise possesses 1t.
The Possibility of Deception.
In this direction alone lies the POSSIBLE
ity" of deception the part Of China in
this matter. 1t is possible that the Chinese
foreign office possesses our old CODE the
only one in possession of Conger. The de-
partment at Washington has a new code
now, or a modification of the old, which
amounts to the same thing as a new one
but Conger has not been supplied with II,
and the communication with him had to be
In the old form, which has been in use for
more than fifteen years. The several DOW
ers which control their own telegraph sys-
TENS and have access to kilograms sent all
have corps of cipher experts connected
with the foreign offices, whose duty it is to
make study of the secret codes, and it is
their endeavor to work out the codes used
by other governments in their foreign cor
respondence. China has such a corps of eX-
perts, it Is said. and has proba bly, for years
been making study of our code along
with those of other governments.
The correspondence of the State DEPART
ment at Washington is published every
year and other foreign offices have access
to these publications. Usually the cipher
dispatches are merely paraphrased in this
form OF publication, but It is not impossible
for experts. by having copies of cipher dis
patches and the paraphrased translations
OF them through series of years. to work
e;.,aa out the cipher is probable that our as
most any code II given the code dispatches
and the corresponding paraphrases running
over a considerable period Of time.
An Opportunity Afforded.
But the foreign experts have been afford
ed a better opportunity to work out the
code than is afforded by having only the
paraphrase translations. During the term
of Secretary Gresham the practice was es-
tablished Of not resorting to paraphrase in
the official publication of State Depart
ment correspondence, and in the volumes
of diplomatic correspondence during that
time literal translations of cipher dis
pdtShco oSSuA, 81 tiidt ClpHeT experts nav
ing access to cipher dispatches and making
study of our code at that time may easily
have mastered our code. 1t may not be
unlikely that most foreign powers under
stand our old code, but 1t does not follow
from this that no reliance is to be placed
in dispatches received from our ministers
1t opens one possibility of deception in
the Conger dispatch, but the belief of the
State Department is that the possibility
is too remote to be considered
The dispatch is accepted as authentic,
and. acting upon 1t, earnest efforts are
being made to get relief to Pekin 1t lis
not thought that II the Chinese possessing
our cipher, had written the dispatch. they
would have invited the allied relief forces
to push on speedily to Pekin
Peaches Sold Mt Auefinn