The Salt Lake herald. [volume] (Salt Lake City [Utah]) 1870-1909, 1900-07-09
PIVOTAL STATES.
Louigville Courier-Journal.)


louisville Courier-Journal-)
II IS only some few years back when
me proolem OF presidential election
was comparatively simple Not that It
ta1nly than il can be now. but the ele-
mentS OF the question were fewer. You
were perhaps, just as liable to guess
wrong tnen as you are now. but you 0lo
not nave 50 many guesses TO make
On int Democratic side there was the
soma so9th, 10 begin with. considered
absolutely secure Then there We're
tour northern states described as pivotal
New YORK Indiana. New Jersey ana
Connecticut The first named, however,
was the only one which the Democrats
We're absolutely obliged to carry, pro-
vlled they carried one or Two OF the
others, tor the reason that il had more
electoral votes than the three others
comDlnec- The Democrats could get
along without any one OF those states
except New York. Ii they carried New
York. Indiana was all that was needed
But they could lose Indiana and sue
ceso II New Jersey and Connecticut re-
enforced New York. as they were almost
certain 10 do. Indeed Tor a periOC of
thirty years barring lS72) New Jersey
was considered as certainly Democratic
as any southern state was IN the last
f nalf OF that time The real doubt IN
the east, after New York. attached 10
l Connecticut But so close were the rela-
| lions between the two states that Con-
necUcDt was Democratic whenever New
YORK was, and mostly Republican in
| years when New York voted for a Re
publican for president In ISIS, how
! ever, when New York went Republican,
| Connecticut gave Cleveland the narrow
plurality OF SS6. This was small, but 1t
/ would have been quite sufficient 10
| elect Cleveland had not New York been
/ lost. for New Jersey came up with
| something more than the average Dem
! ocratic majority. Indiana was lost that
/ year by small plurality, but its vote
! would have done no good without that
OF New York So. in point OF fact, New
/ York was practically in those days the
real pivotal state. for when it went
| Democratic enough Of the others stood
hrm 70 compass an election In lSit
| Tilden was elected by reason of carry.
| ing New York. IN 1850 Hancock would
| the empire state. IN 1884 it was the
narrow plurality IN New York which
elected Cleveland. and he would have
been reelected in 1SSS if he could have
In 1892 there was z change. The
forces tending to Democratic success
| We're so strong that year that Cleve,
land might have lost New York ano
st,A nave had 242 electoral votes 10 ~
Tor the others combined. Indeed. h(
! would have been elected if he had lOs1
New York. New Jersey and Connecticut
This marked the breaking up of tbs
old order, whether temporarily or per
manently remains 10 be seen In lSs
the vote of New York added to wha
ne received would not have eiecte;
Bryan. There was no longer a solit
and West Virginia voted for Mckinley
except that this state gave Bryan on
vote There were changes in othe
states, however, that would have beel
enough 10 elect Bryan II New York an
Indiana had been added to them. Nc
i knley had ninety-five majority OF IN
electoral vote. so that a change OF forty
! eight votes from his column TO Bryan
Z
York and Indiana together have ncty-on
2 votes.
The plain meaning of this is that !
Bryan can hold what he had in is
r and can carry New York and Indian
; he will win. The plurality in the latte
state for Mckinley in 1896 was 1878
for the Republican candidate for secre
! tary of state in 1898, ii was H.5lS, ye
after giving Cleveland a plurality {
LES in 1872 il gave the Republican car
= didate for secretary of state in 1894
= plurality of 44,673. The years 1894 an
1888 were each midway between pres
: dental elections. Yet the Republica
J plurality in 1898 was more than no
less than it was in 1894. and this di
ference is 50 per cent more than Nj
}. ! Kinley's plurality in 1896 Moreove
. many things have occurred since IS
which ought TO weaken the Republican
: in Indiana and strengthen the Demt
erats: Accordingly, we are tosd thS
; the Indiana Democrats are very saI
= guine of carrying the state next fal
and il appears at this distance thu
they have reason for their confiderc
e There are other states that voted Il
- Bryan that might make up for the 10:
OF Indiana, but we waive any discus
sion of the point in this article
1t seems. therefore. that New You
may again take this year its old plat
J. as practically the pivotal state 1t mu
q have been the idea CT the delegates
the Republican national conVenuc
i that the nomination OF Roosevelt Il
the vice presidency made the state SUI
for the Republicans. and that othe
wise il would be doubtful. II they Ia
not thought So there would not hay
been such tremendous demonstration
in his favor ending in his nominate
= against his will But there a.
: already very respectable Republican
coming forward to say that the nomin
else than in New York, and that Il
Republicans must make their arrang
ments to elect Mckinley without the a
: of the empire state. Mr. Hanna eviden
. ~ did not share the belief that the nom
y nation OF Teddy would make New Yol
sure. for nobody can doubt his loyalty
Mckinley. Mr.. Plat. on the other han
finds IL more to his interest to rule Ne
t York than t. insure the election of r
:. publican president. II is all very well
/ say that the Republicans must ma
their arrangements TO win without Ne
York, but how are they going to do
The indications, therefore. are tn
e there viii be a desperate struggle
l. the aScendancy in the old pivotal stat
for the reason that IL may prove II
year that "as goes New York so goes {
Union" The fight will rage fiercely
along the line, but il looks as If Ne