The times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1897-1901, 1900-03-05
MONDAY. MARCH 5. 1900.


The Political situation IN Europe.
The danger may blow over, but it is
firmly believed in European political cir
cles that war between Russia and Great
Britain is very near The latter power in
the past has never hesitated or failed tc
take advantage OF the misfortunes OF
preoccupations of other States. Rus
STA is under no restraint of courtesy
or consideration as far as her old enemy
and rival is concerned, and the tone Of
the Russian press seems to irdicate thai
the St. Petersburg Cabinet would not OBJ
ject seriously if the friction between the
two countries resulted in a speedy rup-
ture.
1t seems to be a very little thing that
keeps the Gar from that final step which,
when taken. must lead to war. There is
not a doubt that he means 10 practically
annex Persia. and TO occupy the head OF the
Persian Gulf. Just at the moment be could
not obtain possession of the two gulf ports,
'Bushire and Bundar Abbas, as they are
both mortgaged to Great Britain as security
for a loan. But Nicholas can remove that
impeachment by paying off the debt; after
which he can and will take over one or
both of the places named. That act would
probably be followed by British blockade
of the Persian Gulf and such an unfriendly
movement Russia would doubtless meet by
selling Rerat and proceeding to occupy At
ghanistan.
Perhaps these things are not as immi-
rent as they appear to the Cabinets and
diplomatic circles of Europe. or it may be
that their imminence is dependent upon
what NAV happen fn-Seuth Africa between
now and summer. II Lord Roberts should
continue to win victories, and thus per-
haps bring an end of the war and the res
toration OF British ascendency within
measurable distance. there is little reason
to think that the Russian or the French
hand would be longer stayed. In the case
of the former. the Cars advisers fully
realize the certainty that If England should
manage TO get cut of her present entan-
clements without loss of territory or
power. her first business would be TO so
strengthen her offensive and defensive
agencies and facilities that future agrees
sions in her direction might become i'm
possible for a century at least. On this
reasoning Russia is very likely to strike
a blow of some sort somewhere. The Car
probably sees that Persia offers the line OF
least resistance to his general purposes.
The Persian Gulf would give him splen-
did commercial and naval base. and we are
inclined TO think that he will try to secure
it beyond any peradventure, before Eng
lands military situation is materially i'm
proved
Evidences multiply that there is a close
understanding between Russia and France.
and that the latter is being coached into
a perilous condition of war craze. 1t would
not take much to drive the present Gov
eminent into open hostilities. il the state
OF public sentiment is reflected by the lead
ing journals of Paris, and this, although
Loubet and Delcasse are both believed to
be quite averse to war. But with wild
Anglophobe populace to satisfy. and an
army filled with hatred and contempt for
the power over the water, and differed
by ambitious and often INSCRIPTIONS men,
a small spark might explode the magazine.
and the spark could readily be found and
applied by Russia, were the Car TO decide
for war.
The worst feature of the situation is
the moral certainty that the whole Con-
tinent would be involved in any war which
might take place between Russia and
France on one side and England on the
other. In view of his extensive and com
plicated interests in many directions 1t is
impossible to see how the Kaiser could
maintain neutrality. Any offensive Franco
Russian alliance would be apt to cover
an understanding by which France should
obtain the Mediterranean littoral OF
Morocco if not the whole of that decayed
Sultanate; and as likely as not France
would insist upon having Egypt also. Ger
many could not afford to permit such
reforms in political geography, and the
same may be said OF Austria, Italy, ard
Turkey. In the end, 1t is therefore pos
slble that the menace of a great coalition
OF the other powers may serve TO hold
Russia and France-especially the latter
in check until the South African situation
has been cleared up; but it must be said
that the present outlook is quite the other
way.