The representative. [volume] (St. Paul, Minn.) 1893-1901, 1900-06-28
Public Indlsposed to Trade
at Recent High Level
of Prices.
Political Campaign a Cause
Of Uncertainty in the
Market.



Bearish proclivities have been quite active
during the past week: unfavorable crop re-
ports. the approach of q political cam
paign. the Chinese developments and the
renewal Of gold exports being the apparent
reasons for the declines. The real reasons,
however, were the indisposition Of the pub
lilo to continue buying at the recent high
level Of prices; the recognition of this fact
by experienced operators, and the willing
ness. II not desire. of the big holders, to
see moderate reaction on which to base q
fresh buying movement in anticipation Of
more favorable developments later on. In
trtnsic conditions may be perfectly sound;
yet. II the speculative forces are agreed
upon, lower range Of values, nothing can
be gained by resisting those forces at this
time. On the contrary. the advantage lies
In letting them have their own way for
period. SO that the rebound upwards will
become the more pronounced later on.
As to crop reports it Is quite certain that
considerable damage has been done by
drouth In the northern spring wheat dis
tricts. but this seems to have been fully
discounted, and considerable compensation
will be gained by farmers in other sections
through the higher prices for wheat, while
there is no prospect Of deficiency In the
aggregate wheat crop. In other respects
there 10 nothing unfavorable in the crop
situation unless, perhaps. that the weather
has been too cool for the rapid growth OF
corn. 1t IL altogether too soon. however,
to make any reliable calculations as to crop
returns
CAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY.
The political campaign is cause Of un-
certainty more perhaps than the facts JUS
tify. yet opinions will differ and the mar
ket 10 likely to be sensitive to such OpAn-
ions, rightly or wrongly. until the outcome
Of the elections can be more accurately fore
seen. The reelection of President McKin-
ley is generally conceded; still there is the
possibility. II not probability. that the cam
paign will produce some unexpected results
II not unexpected scares. Campaign COM
mittees are quite shrewd enough to con-
slider the dangers OF Over-c0nfdence, ana
spectators will be ready to take full advan-
tage Of any scares. real or artificial, that
may develop. A presidential campaign can
have but little effect upon the actual dis
tribution and consumption of merchandise;
consequently the retail and smaller trans
actions in business will be but slightly at
fected. but the larger operations. those
which enter in the future. those which are
largely speculative and those which call Tor
the initiative. are always much Influenced
by political movements. Uncertainty al
ways defers II 1t does not destroy such
activity.
Trade prospects are very satisfactory, al
though the outlook is somewhat confused by
the readjustment Of prices now going on.
Values had been advanced much too high
because of the sudden and unprecedented
rush of orders Now that these are satisfied
both demand and prices are gravitating to
the normal. More or less unsettlement
must be expected until this period Is passed.
and it is quite likely that buyers will hold
of for still lower prices until forced to
recognize that bottom ts touched. During
the interval. therefore, period OF dullness
may be expected that will be very discour-
aging in contrast with the conditions Of
year ago. But this will only be temporary,
for there are no signs Of the recent activity
having run its course. Quite the reverse
there is every reason to anticipate good
trade during the coming fall and winter,
because enterprise and industry are alert
and the execution Of new projects will keep
every mill busy for months to come Over
production is not yet In sight.
NO CAUs EFOR UNEASINEss. .
In the foreign situation there Is nothing
seriously adverse to this market. Should
the disturbances in China be subdued by
the combined powers, without any dissen-
sions among the latter, there Will be no
cause for uneasiness. The situation, how
ever. in the far East is highly complex and
not free Of dangerous possibilities. When
these have been safely passed the United
States will reap greater advantages from the
opening of China to commerce than any 9TH
er nation. The East is interested in China
on behalf Of her iron manufacturers who
graphs and other articles required with the
advance of Western civilization The South
is especially interested in behalf Of her cot
ton manufacturers, who will some day be
threatened with over-production unless they
find the foreign outlet which China offers,
and the Pacific coast is interested in behalf
of her canned fruit and grain products. Of
which the Chinese will become large con-
sumers-to say nothing of the Pacific coast
shipping and mercantile interests. which
Of commerce with China, Japan and, the
Philippines. Meantime the foreign markets
are exposed to shocks arising from the Chi
pese situation which would be partially re-
fiected here, though there IL small likelihood
of our markets being seriously disturbed by
this factor.
The most desirable solution Of the Chi
nese question would be the removal Of the
dowager empress and the establishment Of
q strong central government. through con-
cert Of the powers. made up Of the progress
sive element in China which r. amply capa-
BILE OF giving q good administration II ade-
ouately supported at the start II this
plan fails. the outlook would be anything
but promising. for the control Of 00.O0O 900
people under one government is big under
taking, 1t would certainly be much safer
for the future peace Of other nations for
China to be divided up into numerous parts
than to continue under one head. II dis
integration IL inevitable, It would be far
easier to effect 1t now than later. when the
Chinese will have become disciplined In the
use OF modern war weapons and methods.
China's power In that event, in holding to-
gether as one mammoth nation. might be-
come q serious danger to other races. That
Il the yellow Peril" In any event, there
must be formal upholding Of the open
door policy: to enable the United States
10 come In for her full share Of the COM
mercial advantages. without the disadvan-
tAgeo OF territorial oWnefDh1p.
ATTRACTS LITTLE ATTENTION.
Gold exports have attracted little atten-
hon. because Of our ability to spare con-
btderabls sums Tor points whore It u most