The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1899-04-10
TENSION Is RELIEVED.
HENRY CI1EWS' VIEW OF THE
SHARP BREAK IN INDUS
TRIAL SHARES
STREET ON A NEW BASIS

tive Trading During the summer
Months-Firmness of the Money
Market an Evidence of CONNER
cial SOundness Wide Fluctua-
lions to BE Expected.
NEW YORK, April 9.-Henry CieWs
weekly review Of the stock market says:
During the past week there has been
an erratic change in the general aspect
of affairs in Wall street. In every re-
spect the situation Is an extraordinary
one; and 1t has aspects which, taken alto
gether, produce a speculative spirit of
extraordinary vigor. The general run Of
experience has been that, after an I'M
usual rise in the price Of securities, the
controlling speculative interests would
sell out and use their influence to precip-
itate a material decline. In the present
campaign we have had a reversal OF that
experience. 1t is true, there has recently
been extensive realizing and not little
effort to break down prices, and that by
some of the shrewdest operators. But for
once there has been an exception to the
almost universal rule. Though the selling
and the bearing have been very active,
prices have scarcely yielded to what
might have been expected under the cir
cumstances; the market throughout has
exhibited considerable bottom strength.
This has been maintained, too, In the face
of a quite stringent and rigid discrimina-
ton in the collateral securities money
market, caused by decline in the legal
reserves Of the banks and by higher rates
| in foreign exchange.
| 1t is not generally fully realized to what
| an extent the business Of the country was
| held in restraint by the grave uncertain
ties created by the silver agitation from
the year 1888 to the end of 1897. Capital
was alarmed and refused to go into per-
manent investment until there was some
certainty as to what should be the future
value of the dollar. The consequent abb
sence Of new enterprises was Of itself an
important source of industrial depression.
In all directions there was a contraction
of consumption. Domestic expenses were
reduced; few industrial enterprises were
started; industrial plant was allowed to
run on without nedeed repairs and with
| few extensions; the same rule applied to
| public works generally; the railroads and
| shipping deferred OUTLAWS for repairs and
requirements; congress and the legisla-
| lures were compelled to restrain public
| OulldyS WlCnln the ndTTOW0SI UInlIS pos
sible; and besides these influences tending
| to the contraction Of trade, financial in
stitutions were moved by apprehension to
restrict their credit operations within the
| narrowest limits. Thus for five years
the business Of the whole country was
| held in state Of vital paralysis. For that
period, the ordinary wants of seventy mil
| lions Of people were only partially sup
| piled; and in that way vast accumula-
0f, cGad
| poned until public confidence was restor-
| ed. That restoration set in with the de-
| feat Of the silver candidate of 1896 and
| the election of a sound money president.
| Then came year Of abundant crops, with
the reservation of prosperity and good feel
ing In the agricultural West and South.
The year 1898 gave still more abundant
| crops and a consequent unparalleled sur
| plus of exports over imports, with gen.
| eral revival Of business. This change of
| conditions has brought orders into every
market, not only to satisfy the liberal
| wants incident to the current general
prosperity, but also for the supply Of the
| accumulated wants Of five successive
| years of postponed consumption. The re-
suit of this concurrence of circumstances
we now witness in condition Of national
prosperity perhaps never equalled in any
period of our national history. In some of
the staple branches of manufacture the
existing plant falls far below the demands
Of consumption, and this situation seems
likely to continue Indefinitely
Along with this great commercial re-
| V1val, the five years accumulation of idle
capital has come into Wall street, partly
for investment and partly for temporary
speculation. 1t was this demand, concen-
trated largely upon dividend-paying
stocks, which first gave the stock market
| It's upward impulse; and to that same In
| huence we owe In part the continued high
| prices; for, as investors become more
and more convinced of the proba bility of
per cent being the standard return upon
sound securities, they become more will
| ing to buy at the current high rate of
prices. There are, however, rot few
or those who hesitate to invest at such
low rate Of return and are therefore
willing to accept more or less specula-
tive element in their investments; which,
again keeps up the demand for the second
grade Of stocks with the result Of fire.
quent rises In one or another Of that class
OF stocks. The immense creation of in
dustrial combinations also here comes In
as an element Of the investment demand
IL is assumed that among those issues
there are those that afford promise OF
unusually large dividends, which are at.
tracing perhaps much larger buying than
Is generally supposed from men who are
current
returns from older and better known
securities. Considering the enormous
amount of long idle capital which has
come into the market and the extraordi.
nary newborn activity in the Industrial
stocks, little further is needed to explain
the market which is now the wonder q,
Wall street; nor, is it difficult to fine
reasons for expecting that this activit,
may continue for quite some time longer
mere can be no doubt that there Is ar
important investment demand still in the
market; it may be centering mainly In
second-class railroad stocks and the more
attractive industrials, but it nevertheless
constitutes real bull influence which
the pessimists feel compelled to respect
when that demand has been satisfied the
market may take on a different asnect
but, for SO long as 1t remains, we are
likely to find bull influences in the ascen
dant
The market, however, is In a shane from
which wide fluctuations may be expected
Friday, we had an illustration of thi,
in sharp breakdown Of a certain grou,
or industrials, which extended it's effect.
through the general list That breal
; should have come during the latter par
or March, as I prognosticated it would
out there was united action to stem tn,
current at that time by a number of DOW
er1ul leaders with view Of bridgins
over the LIST of April settlements. exnect
ing easy money thereafter. Their calcu
lat1ons as to the speedy return OF none,
10 this center having miscarried. the,
lost their grip in holding the market an3
In the severity of the raids which caugh
an 1nnumerable number of stop order,
and weakly margined accounts To tn,
, deluge of stocks from this cause is din,
the BAD break. 1t is very healthy re