The times., 1899-05-07
k0I0BAG sisss Ha s5a to cUnE Hab
some time. at least, ten points above their
present level

the passage of the Ford bill, by the New
York Legislature, at n time when the
public had already begun to lose conf
dence in the continuance of the advance
in prices and when the bears were ready
for any pretext to hammer stocks. A
number of other unfavorable circumstances,
or fancied evils, at least, helped the bears
in their efforts. The wheat outlook has
been very bad and the talk of smaller
earnings for the grangers persistent. There
was for a day or two much talk by the
bears of the likelihood of gold export and
money stringency. Later in the week the
bears, as last resort, circulated the story
that prominent stock broker was dead,
and that his firm might be dissolved and
might sell out great block of stocks.
This ruse of the bears was nasty and dis
graceful in every way. but it served its
purpose, causing one of the sharpest
alumps Of the entire week. Yesterday
there was a bad bank statement. The
technical condition of the market was
also favorable to the bears The previous
declines had weakened the long accounts.
Stop orders were reached on every dip
and more every day SO that at the last
this liquidation was fully as potent as the
short selling. The bears in fact were en-
abled TO strengthen their position several
times during the week by covering and
then reselling II will be seen that there
Is nothing in all this that is intrinsically
inimical to higher prices except the pos
sibility of a small wheat crop. At the
same time it is contended by many that
such break would not have occurred if
prices were not too high. which means in
fact that the bulls would have been sue
cessfui despite technical conditions il
stocks were intrinsically worth more. The
question of Importance is, of course,
whether this is true, because on its an
swer depends the future course of the
market to great extent
Nobody knows the answer to the ques-
ton, but some of the factors in the prob
lem may be recited. The probability now
seems TO be great that the earnings of the
granger roads will not be any larger this
year than last If they are as large. It may
be inferred that there will be no increases
in the dividend rates of these roads. AS
compared with the earnings of last year
il is also probable that many other rail-
reads will also fail to show increases. The
business of the country is fine. but it is TO
be doubted If its excess over the magni-
cent record of last year in other lines will
more than make up for a poor wheat crop.
A careful comparison of earnings and div
idends with stock prices at present and
during the past two months leads to the
conclusion that If dividends are not to be
increased there is no good reason why
stock values should increase beyond the
high prices of this spring. In the grange;s,
indeed, il is very easy TO argue that the top
level will not be reached again this sum
mer.
With regard to the industrials, the situa-
ton is very different. Prices in these
stocks have not kept pace with those of
the railroads. Industrial stocks that have
paid dividends regularly when the railroad
stocks were paying none. are selling at
levels where they pay to 10 per cent on
the investment, as against to per cent
for the railroad stocks. New concerns with
assured earning capacity and future as
bright as that of the country itself appar-
emily are even worse OFF than the old in
dustrials. Compared with the fair railroad
stocks the best OF the industrial stocks are
selling 40 TO so per cent lower.
In the same category with the indus
trials are some Of the specialties and some
of the railroad stocks where special con-
ditions exist. Brooklyn Rapid Transit is
one of the specialties as to the future OF
which apparently there can be no question.
Something of the bright prospects for this
great street railway system was outlined
in this column yesterday morning. There
is every reason to believe that the system
will earn 10 to 20 per cent on the stock at
all times in the coming years. The South
ern railroads are likely TO do a very large
business this year, and larger next The
Pacific Mail Company will grow with the
prosperity Of Americas Pacific business,
and there is every reason to believe that
the stock of the company will receive
much larger dividend. At the present price
OF the stock. il pays 6 per cent. The Bal
timore and Ohio system has undergone
tUhic
an especially good showing in its coming
statements. II seems probable that the
common stock of this country will sell
much higher.
AS to the immediate future of the mar
ket, rally OF some Importance is un-
doubtedly nearly due The indications
yesterday were that prices might be some
what lower at some time tomorrow If
this Is the case, there will be good buying
of stocks on the bottom by the insiders
This will probably prove 10 be the profit
able course. II is not believed that prices
will go more than a point or two lower,
If that. before the turn comes. The bears
have run their course for the time being,
and the inexperienced bears were pyramid
ing yesterday in way that will prove
most disastrous for them as soon as the
leaders begin to cover. When the buying
begins by the big bears, and the leaders
of the bull side. il is not to be doubted
that there will be a tremendous furry, for
one day at least. Railroad stocks should
be sold on a two or three point advance,
and the industrials on a rally of four to
eight points, as circumstances indicate.
Later there should be other rallies, and
| 1t seems probable that the lowest prices
for the month have now been recorded.
The steel and iron stocks and Brooklyn
Rapid Transit and Manhattan look TO many
of the shrewdest people in the market TO
| be the best purchases for strong and sus-
tanned advances. Other securities that are
picked out by the bull leaders are Amer
ican Cotton Oil, Rubber. and Leather,
! among the industrials, and Baltimore and
Ohio and Pennsylvania among the standard
railway issues.
The news of yesterday was unimportant,
with the exception of the bank statement,
which is undoubtedly the worst showing
made by the banks this year. The figures
OF the statement are as follows:
| Reserves. decreased. d.............$ 6,172, 725
| Loans, decreased sed................ 16 664, 400
specie, decreased; d;................ !29. 7oo
Legals, decreased. ................ 1,435, 500
! Deposits, increased. ............. 16.036 100
| Circulation, decreased. ........... 73,50O
| Washington Stosk Exchange.
Regular call-Columbia R. R. SIS. 5000
ITO IL National Safe Deposit and Trust
| l0G144; 5G145. Washington Loan and
Trust, 1Q160. Capital Traction, s@s0 Ia
2ssaso. 10ds9 rs. 55GS9 "a. 30Qss 7-s
Metropolitan r. r. receipts, 50@22S
City and Suburban r. R.: 10@43; Wash
ington Gas: 2565S 1-2. 25G5s IA, log
IS 3-s: Mergenthaler Linotype: l0Q
205. sQ207. 10@204 1-2 10020i, 10@204 1-8;
Lanston Monotype. sG20 5-s. 50@20 7-8. and
60G2l- American Graphophone, l00@I3 7-S