Arizona republican. [volume] (Phoenix, Ariz.) 1890-1930, 1899-08-25
The Whole Country Saturated
With Optimism.
WARNING GIVEN OF A TURN
Which Is Admitted Though TO Be So
Far in advance That 1t Is Not
Yet In Sighi-The Probability
of a Great Inflow OF European
Gold In Payment for American
Shares.

New York, Aug. 24-(SpeciaL)-
An improved tone can be noted in
stock market conditions since last
week. A firm feeling prevails and
prices have been very strong in num-
erous spots; the forces on the bull
side are certainly now more unified
and this afforded the bears less op-
portunisy for attack One leading
operator was bold enough to publicly
proclaim himself bearish in spite of
the many favorable conditions; but ex-
pressions of sympathy with his views
were remarkably few. The big hold
ers cf stocks and many professional
operators are still absent on vacations,
and when they return a concerted bull
movement is quite possible. There is
little doubt but that the large pro-
portion of these individuals will re-
turn vigorous bulls. The outside pub
lie is also bullish, chiefly because of
the active conditions of trade and in
dustry throughout the country. These
conditions are already so familiar that
repetition is useless. Nor are any facts
necessary to prove the universal be-
lief in a higher market this autumn.
The probability that there will be no
severe stringency in money and that
our crops will yield returns beyond
what farmers usually receive has re-
moved almost the last vestige of
doubt. The whole country in fact from
the Atlantic to the Pacific is saturated
with optimism; and there is vastly
more danger at present from the re-
suits of excessive confidence than
from any other single cause. Now
is the time to be on the alert for in
judicicus ventures. All sorts of vi
sionary schemes are being, or shortly
will be launched. There is a strong
also, of our discounting
prosperity too rapidly, and inviting
an unwelcome setback through ex-
cessive speculation, though we cannot
be said to have yet arrived near that
stage. The great advance in prices,
in iron products, must ul-
put a check upon demand and
new enterprise; and the readjustment
to follow will not be accomplished
without injury to some
The purpose of these remarks is to
show the need of conservatism as q
restraint upon the excessive optimism
which if not used may carry us along
upon a speculative wave that will
bring violent recessionS later on. A
balance wheel of some sort is needed.
and firmer rates for money is one of
the best. Another reason for conserv-
atism is the high level of the best
stocks and bonds. In these the future
has been so amply discounted as to
leave little opportunity fer further
profit, except in cases where dividends
are likely to be increased. Careful
railroad managers however will lie
slow about increasing their dividends
when earned in |, season of exceptional
when expenses are increas-
ing and when fresh competition. may
develop. The class OF securities most
likely to lead the next advance will
be the medium and low priced stocks
which have not risen proportionately
with better issues. Among the indus
rials the iron and steel issues are
likely to be manipulated upwards on
he present phenomenal demand and
prices for both the raw material and
lnished products.
A favorable factor was the refusal
If the Bank OF England to advance it's
ate Of discount, although such ad-
-ance would haveM aused no surprise.
This indicates little fear in London
'ver the monetary situation. AS TO
he prospects of our importing gold,
hese as yet s@s indefinite. Should
Europe buy our stocks with any free
Icm gold would certainly come this
vay July experts of merchandise
5ere very heavy, amounting to $94,-
OS, ,OOe, against s72,525, 900 the same
Month in $685. Imports amounted TO
IS, ,925 200, against $50, 900 last
ear, so that the excess of exports last
month was So, 1888, 900, compared with
n excess of s21, $40, 900 in 1898 and
II, ,429, 900 in 1897.
A good many people are surprised
{ the comparative stagnancy of the
Lock market in the face of such
-rong ''bull'' factors as the now GER