The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1899-10-06
WHAT WAS NEILL'S MOTIVE?

Nobody now DelleVeS the coCtOn crop
will exceed ten million bales. 1t is equally
as generally accepted that a ten million
cents per pound. The actual sales of
cotton being made now show that every
farmer who sold cotton for less than
seven cents let the buyers take the cot
ton at less than its actual value. How
much Neill's prediction OF twelve mil
lion bale crop knocked down the price
it cost the Southern farmers millions OF
dollars.
The Charleston News and Courier, one
of the most conservative and carefully
edited papers in the country, in dis
passionate and judicial way discusses
Neill's prediction and the motives or
great break 1t is so judicial and so
interesting that we give it in full. The
News and Courier says:
ut becomes more anc more apparent
that unless Mr.. Neill nrophesied with a
specific purpose, that he pr0phesied once
too often, for it is generally conceded
by bulls and bears alike today that r.
00O,000 bales is entirely too high an
estimate to place on the current cotton
crop. The Iransvaal war scare may
have a temporarily depressing influence
on the market, but the general trend
of events during the month of Septem-
Der indicated that prices will almost in
evitably go higher than they have vet
been. Even the sharp rise OF the last
few days has not wholly discounted the
growing conviction in well informed
minds that the yield will fall several
million bales short of what Mr.. Neill
declared it would be. A few dyed-in-the-
wool bears may cling to the Neill fig
ures, but impartial operators have long
since abandoned them as being vision
airy and wide of the mark.
I'm view of these things the motives
that inspired Neill in making his guess
at the size of the crop becomes legiti-
mate subject for conjecture. His house
is well known one, and enjoys wide
credit among its own correspondents and
in the cotton business at large. BY the
application Of good judgment to a vast
some expense and with great care its
estimates Of former crops had been SO
accurate as to win for its prophesies re-
spectful consideration. 1t is scarcely
credible that means of information
which had proved so efficient for years
should suddenly have become worthless;
and it is equally as preposterous to
suppose that Neill was suddenly desert
had often enabled him to apply informa-
ton at his disposal to such good pur-
pose. We are loathe to believe that he
deliberately set himself to work TO inn
pose upon the confidence accorded him
by the public in furtherance Of his pri-
vate ends. And we should regret to
be forced to the conclusion that Mr..
NELL, Being heavily short OF the market
manufactured a prophecy calculated to
put dollars into his own pocket. Such
a course does not amount to COM
mon law or statutory offence, and
it may be regarded as entirely legiti-
mate in the line of trade of which Neill
is a highly respected member, but it lis
questionable whether the man who
would be guilty of such conduct is not
morally as culpable as those who COM
is were true that Neill, being fully aware
of the credit he had with the cotton
interests of the country, deliberately
overestimated the crop in order to de-
press prices, he would have perpetrated
a swindle in its essential features as
surely as if he had defrauded CORE
spondent out of money that belonged to
him, and the injury done would be far
more extensive in the former than in the
latter instance. Every farmer in the
South who had to sell his cotton for
less. than it was actually worth in an
open market should be numbered among
the victims of such piece of chicanery.
I'VE do not accuse Mr.. NeilI of doing
these things. We merely take this occa-
sion to remark that should the event
show that a -million-bale crop of
cotton has been made this year, the pub
lie would be justified in regarding him
either as statistician who went sud
denly daft, or else as SPECTATOR
whose conscience, is subseryient to his
commercial interests"