The times., 1899-08-17
New York Cotton Market.
THE LARGEST COTTON CROP.
Mr.. Nciu Estimates 1t Will Reach
12.OOO,OoO Bales

The outlook for this years cotton crop
is exciting more than usual interest this
week among brokers, manufacturers, and
exporters in America, and the trade gen.
orally on the other side OF the Atlantic.
in view of the startling announcement of
Neill, the cotton crop expert, that the yield
will be IL 600 600 bales. To the lay mind
Neill's estimate has no particular signif-
canoe but it is no exaggeration TO say that a
crop of 10000 600 bales would be likely 10
reduce the price of cotton below the cost
of production and cause great suffering
among the planters in the South, demoraliZe
the cotton trade generally, ruin many OF
the cotton manufacturers, and do far more
damage than crop OF half the size
In the past two years there have been i'm
mense cotton crops, and the price of the
staple has been tumbling until the differ
ence between it and the cost of production
has been reduced to the vanishing point,
almost Many planters throughout the
South lost money, while few realized any
considerable profits on last years crop.
Meanwhile a great surplus OF cotton above
the demand has been piling up. third
bumper crop, bigger than any before on
record, would cut down the price 10
cents q pound, many believe, if not even
lower than that, where the margin Of profit
would heCC7 n or loss IN all cases
The problem if cotton raising at cents
a pound is profitable has been a knotty one
answered both in the affirmative and the
negative, according TO favorable or unfavor-
able conditions. There could be no question
that Accent cotton. under present condi-
tions. would be a profitless crop.
Mr.. Neill has excellent sources of infor-
nation throughout the South He has made
cotton a study for years, and is generally
considered to be an expert on the subject
He has predicted all the recent big crops
with accuracy. AS result OF these facts,
his prophecies have been received by many
cotton people, especially in Great Britain
with a complete faith. bordering closely on
reverence. When Mr. Neill on Tuesday pre-
dicted u 000 600 bales, therefore he caused
| a wild CONSERVATION. To many the H.
600 000 bales was as good as harvested
| The rapid advance in price of the previous
| three DAYS was turned into heavy selling
movement, both in Liverpool and in the
American markets. The price of cotton
| futures went down 10 to IA points. Yester-
| day people had not got over their fright,
| and similar decline was added 10 that OF
Tuesday.
| A healthy and growing skepticism re-
| garding this prophecy is now becoming
manifest, however From the hrst init
nation of IL many conservative people
| called II ABSURD, anu int hulhDSA VIZ
| now doubt it embraces many more than
| ever doubted a Neill prophecy before. For
one thing it is said that no just estimate
of the crop can be made so early IN the
| season when its critical period will not
| be over for two weeks at least. Further
It is intimated that as good authorities as
| Mr.. Neill see indications that not more
than 10. see 600 bales at most will be har-
vested. Mr.. Neills estimate OF damage
done TO the crop In the Brazos Valley,
Texas. is 100, 600 bales
The expert OF the Agricultural Depart
ment who made a special investigation OF
this damage places the number OF acres
submerged at over 100000, and the loss In
cotton at 225, 900 bales or more. Com
bining all these matters into an argument
the skepties say that this time MI Neii
has made a grievous mistake in his esti-
mate IL is even intimated that the hsures
are so much too large that he cannot be-
lieve them himself.