New-York tribune., 1899-06-07
THE DATE OF DISSOLUTION.
HENRY W. LUCY on THE BRITISH PAR.
LIAMEyTARY PROBABILITIES.
To the Editor OF The Tribune.

Sir: The question OF the date of the dissolut,on
| tonic long smouldering under other question.
of the day. has suddenly sprung up and Out.
flames all others. The heather was set anFs By
the Chancellor of the Exchequer's speech A
Bristol the other day. in which he uttered /.
cry Of personal WEAKNESS at the prolongaten
of the cares Of office, and looked forward cheer.
| fully to the Opposition taking their tun At
the laboring oar. However Ii be since memhr.
focked back to Westminster for the resumrou
of the sittings Of the House OF Commons, anH.
talk is about the date Of the dissolution.
1t is said. and have the best reason to know
the statement is well founded that Mr.. Clad.
stone, the Liberal whip, looks for it in March
next year. That conclusion is based upon A
line Of conjecture sufficiently plausible. It
said that the Government having done pretty
we'll for their friends all round at the expenM
Of the taxpayers. recognize that the time has
come when they should think OF their latter
end. In any case, dissolution cannot decently
be postponed beyond July /. 1901. which year
will see them in office for full term of sIx
years They have no reason to believe that
two years hence they will be in stronger POSI-
tion In the country than they are to-day. Ths
odds are In favor Of their being much worse or
To begin with, further term OF two years
will have increased the natural impatence not
TO say loathing with which the British eector
begins after the first year Of Office TO regard
the Ministry Of the day
Beyond this is the ordinary risk OF unforeseen
disaster or unpremedtated blunder The lesson
OF Lord Beaconsfelds last Ministry is ever
present, with its note of warning There Is little
doubt that had he dissolved Parliament I'm.
medlately after his return from Berlin, arm IN
arm with Lord Salisbury bringing peace with
honor he would have obtained a renewed
lease Of power Lulled into false security by
the popularity of the hour, the Ministry held on
to face the fearful rout that befell them in tho
spring of 1880. The Dsraelian Parliament,
which met on February 81. 1874 a course
OF six years and sixty-seven days. Only twice
in the present reign has the term been exceed
ed. oddly enough in both cases by the same
brief number Of days. The Parliament which
established Lord Melbourne in power in 1885
sat for six years and 141 days, feat precisely
paralleled by the last Parliament over which
Lord Palmerston presided. The Parliament Of
1880 It's course broken in upon by the eruption
of what Mr. Chamberlain. before he reached a
period of grace, called the stop-gap govern
ment" did not survive quite six years. The
Unionist Parliament of 1856 exceeded that term
by fifteen days. Thus. if the present Parlia-
ment holds on to work through the session Of
1901 and the general election takes place i'm
mediatey after the harvest of the year. Lord
Salisbury and his colleagues could not be re-
preached with unduly lingering on the stage
PROBABLY IN 1901
Mr. Herbert Gladstone is very shrewd young
man, with hereditary talent for political life
and a natural aptitude for business. His opin-
ion on this important and interesting matter Is
we'll worthy of consideration. II Is, however,
not necessarily beyond suspicion Of being inhu-
enced by desire that his flock shall not be taken
unawares. In view Of the near approach and
the inevitableness of a general election, IL Is
better for a party to be ready too soon than
not to be ready when the trumpet sounds. Re
garding the problem from a more impartial
point of view. and giving due weight TO the
considerations cited in favor Of earlier putting
the popularity Of the Government to the test
It seems more probable that the general election
will take place in the first year OF the new cent
ury than in the closing year of the old After
ALL year In the hand. with salaries paid quar-
terly, power patronage and the patriotic inn
pulse to keep out the wicked Liberals. Is worth
more than six years In the BUSH
As matter of fact, the decision OF the Gov
ernment on this crucial point is at the moment
ties. one thing is absolutely fixed. Before the
Government goes out they will have shy at
legislation on the question OF what used to be-
called old age pensions. The studious drop
ping of that name and the laborious labelling
of the committee presided over by Mr.. Chap
lin with the cumbrous title Aged Deserving
Poor" are significant Mr.. Chamberlain has.
upon further study, found that the scheme or
old age pensions which on the eve OF the gen
eral election Of 1895 amazed him by Its alur-
ing simplicity, Is not quite so easy as II then
looked Having made this discovery, he was
disposed to let the matter drop. Old age pen
sioners calling at the Colonial ONCE were IN
formed that the Secretary OF State had 100
many other matters in hand TO be able TO fnd
time to attend to them.
oID-AGE PENSIONS AND POOR LAWS.
The opening here provided was too much for
an Opposition not specially marked by enter
prise or activity. Day after day, In the House
and out OF It, Mr.. Chamberlain was baited oy
contrast between his election pledges anu
his Ministerial indifference. He met the on
saught in his usual combative style. II was
"a proposal" not promise. he had made In
famous speech, crystallized In a notorious elec-
ton leahet After a while he. with character
istic courage, resolved to fight 1t out The pro-
posal Of FIVE shillings week paid out OF 'h'
State Golfers to every poor man over Sky
years OF age, which famed through the mlu'
lands in the spring of 1895. was dropped. fo
it is substituted another plan whereby the sneep
are to be separated from the goats. ana "n''
they are comforted in old age with the sue''o'
of five shillngs a week. the goats may 50 hAns
or into the workhouse. In brief. the fantasy ~
indiscriminate old age pensions has given p'sn'
to a prosaic scheme for the amendment OF .n'
Poor law In the direction OF Distinguishing oe.
tween the deserving poor and the aged and sun
idle vagabond. .
Mr. Chamberlain, whose early successes ~