New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1899-05-10
CONSERVATISM IN BUSINESS.

The genesis of panics nobody can trace In
every instance causes by the score can be
named or conjectured after the event, and sew
eral may always be found which did doubtless
contribute to the result. But even after the
event explanations of the first turning of public
feeling from confidence TO dependency are Of
fered only with hesitation and as guesses. 1t is
not often the barking dog that bites, and gloomy
predictions of disaster rarely seem TO have
much influence so that It is almost an axiom in
business that panics looked for never arrive. 1t
is not when the minds Of men are trained to
face and weigh possibilities of misfortune, and
their efforts shaped to guard against II, that the
epidemic of distrust Is apt to sweep over busl
ness. For this reason, II there were no other
1t might fairly be inferred that the country is
TO. now near any general revulsion in business
The prophets Of evil have been many and par
ticularly communicative in recent months, and
except in the issue and handling of securities
there have been many precautions taken
One of these which is especially significant is
the effectual suppression of all tendency to hoist
prices of wheat. Ever since the extraordinary
storms of February 1t has been certain that con-
siderable damage was done to winter wheat
and the widest exaggerations of it have been
as 10 indicate only moderate reserves here, and
really unexpected demands abroad. the prospect
of diminished yield might easily have kindled
at other times a frenzy Of speculation in wheat,
but the market has been as quiet as IL buried
under the most ponderous remembrance. From
highest to lowest the variation in price was only
6h cents in March and only cents in April,
though 10 cents in March last year and % cents
49,
concurred in thinking that unusual quiet at low
prices would best prepare for future contingent
cies If the crop proves seriously short there
will be less danger Of an advance so great as to
stop marketing the surplus for export. But II,
as late accounts render not improbable, large
spring sowing makes up for most OF the loss in
winter wheat, there will be less reason to fear a
disastrous decline in prices.
The cotton market has behaved In much the
same way The stories Of reduced acreage ere
az narrowing as ever but do not impress people
as usual at this season. Men are taking a cool
look at the enormous piles Of unused cotton In
commercial hands here and abroad, and In do
nestle and foreign mills. and rejecting that a
really considerable decrease in production would
only serve 10 provide opportunity for using up
the surplus. Goods are In large demand, and
the heaviest single sale ever made or print
cloths has been completed but the rise In prices
since the year began has not yet been enough
to compensate for the decline after September,
in 1897 and In the last month has averaged only
about per cent. In wOollens 1t has been even
less In two months, Notwithstanding all combi-
nations and schemes OF combination. and prices
are not yet higher than at the beginning OF the
year In boots and shoes a similar conservative
spirit has prevailed, and prices do not average
az high as early In January, although hides and
leather have both advanced. 1t can hardly be
error to attribute this state of things, so rarely
seen when business 10 active and demands are
large, to q conservative feeling that possible re-
action and shrinkage In demand would be met