The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1899-07-24

ports was last year less by 49, 100000 than
for 1878, yet it is fully double the aver
age surplus of the four preceding years,
and in fact has never been approached
In any previous period of our history. 1t
Is not easy to put an exact value upon
this extraordinary condition of the trade
balance as an indication of what may be
fhe future proportion as between imports
and exports. 1t is superfluous to explain
what is generally understood, that the
extraordinary balance of our foreign
trade for the last two years has been
mainly due first to extraordinary cereal
crops in this country concurrently with
snort crops in nearly all other countries,
next TO an increase in our exports of man
ufactures, and next to a comparative
falling off in The imports-the imports of
the two last years having averaged $685.
100000, while for the three next preceding
years the average was $75S, 500, 600. The
first of these causes-abundant crops-s
likely to be less important during the
crop year 1S99-1900 than it has proved for
the two last years; for, on the one hand,
our wheat crop VIII show a falling off
and, on the other hand, the foreign crops
show large increase, which is likely to
reduce the price of our diminished ex-
portable surplus. AS to our exports of
manufactured goods, it is difficult to fore
cast how they may compare with the
largely increased movement of the last
two years. 1t Is certain, from the or
ders already received from foreign
sources for railroad supplies, that our
shipments Of that class of products will
very largely surpass all presidents. But 1t
Is far less certain what will be the move
ments in other kinds of manufactures. A
large proportion of the industries have
passed under the new system of consolid-
alton; what is to be the effect of that
change upon exports remains to be dem
onstrated by experience 1t does not need
TO be said that the increase in this class
Of exports during late years has been
largely due to overproduction having COM
PEELED manufacturers to realize at a sacrI-
ice in foreign markets. 1t is not easy
TO say what may be the course of pro-
aucers now that consolidation has placed
production and prices under effective con-
troll 1t is claimed by the consolidated in
stitutions that amalgamation will so econ
omize the costs Of production as to en-
able manufacturers to compete more sue
cessfully than ever with other Industrial
nations in the worlds markets This
however, is a problem which has vet to be
solved; and it would be safer to wait for
the results of experience than to fully
concede this claim in advance So far nc
respects the future of the import trade
If the large increase of the past year has
been due to the renewed prosperity of the
country, 1t seems reasonable to assume
that that gain will be maintained for So
long as the recovered prosperity is main
tanned. Perhaps the trade of the last six
months may afford some indication of the
direction the foreign balance may be ex
pected to take during the new fiscal wear
1t is therefore of interest to note that
while, for the second half of 1878, the
excess Of exports over imports was $685.
100000 the surplus for the same portion
of the year just closed was only S195. 100
Goa decrease at the xate of 1927. 900 600
per year.
In order to get a true conception of the
balance of our trade operations with 9th
er countries, it is necessary to add the
specie movement to the merchandise ac-
count. Combining the merchandise and
specie accounts, the excess of exports
was, for last year, $50, 557, OO0 and for
lSS1-S 534.626000; and for the two years
together $IO39, 183, 600 Against this must
pc set or net debtor balance, consist
ing OF interest payments, travellers cred
us, ocean freights, etc, etc, which #
seems TO be generally conceded NAV be
falrly estimated at about S175 600 900 Der
year. Making a deduction Of $3.50 O0o mn
we have S689, 1S9, 900 remaining to creditor
account on the two years operations AS
we have probably no very important
amount Of floating funds now to our
credit in the hands of European borrow
ers, 1T appears probable that this balance
less the $20,OOO,OOO indemnity paid to
Spain, approximately represents the net
amount Of American securities sent home
from Europe within the two last fiscal
years.
The contest between the employees and