The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1899-11-18
LUCK IN CANES or cHANCk
Theories OF Those who Assert or Deny ts
Existence.

posi- factor and as likely 70 come 70 the player
in larger or smaller proportions al inconstant
periods BY many IL is claimed that there 10 no
such thing as luck in games OF ohanoe-tbat IL
in those in which Intellectual force 10 not con-
trbuting factor to success. BY those II is main
tanned that in so many hundreds or thousands or
millions Of deals Of cards. turns Of the roulette
wheel, or in throws Of dice certain winning COM
binatons will occur In proportion as their rcspec-
tive chances warrant and that the player who
happens to DO In the game and TO bet on one OF
these combinations at tho maturity OF the
chances az 1t Is calledthat IT, when II Is positive
that the moment Of It's appearance has arrivcd-is
not the beneficiary Of uncommon good fortune
but he merely happens to be coincident with tho
occurrence OF q positive event. whose matured
chance In susceptible Of moro OF less accurate com
putauon. In so many thousands or hundreds
Of thousands Of games Of whist the entire suit Of
thirteen Is sure 70 DO dealt 10 some one player
who Is engaged in the game al tho maturity Of
the chances" that renders that outcome possible.
Ho considers himself tho object Of phenomenal
luck" whereas he Ia merely mechanical factor
In the solution OF positive mathematical problem
There are many players OF whist TO whom . full
suit Of trumps has been given In q single deal.
On the other hand. there are games Of chance In
which "ths maturity Of tho chances" for the op-
pcaranco Of q certain combination has never as
yet arrived. Sufficient time has not yet elapsed
since dice have been known for say seven a
and - TO DO thrown ten successive times. An
example OF how near this has como 10 realization
will be given later on.
Professional gamblers. while they arc very
sensitive 10 tho potency Of Tuck. yet recognize
tho greater ono Of maturcd chances which In
ordinary games are that the ofsencr the same
a., !, an ~, ~ -. .-,.at..s,- n,
un' VIII no' fceui aehn 'mmco'oe'y' IN
play whore certain combinations r'.ppeer with
All. 81. =. .Ioi.,., ,.,,h L.. tai. .I,ho,,nh
mus ruio may oo ''oia'ou WIN less i'sk' a''nousn
OF IL In roulette. however,. all of the sys,ems
70 beat the game are built upon tho theory Oh
coded hec.,s. Tho c.m. 4. md va, old enough.
.I,,,s,.,.I i, -, a., -. -, ,,oo a.. -,
one TO DO able to compute I ths ms,ured eh.noe.
nm . n,.v NJ succ..s,v. n,r,h.r. J.,1. ANN.
80 y. pns " .',, .n nunVa Leeo sum
lost through the hope OF the maturity Of the chance
which ha. nave, nnt.ri,li,,d
:, nnn -.
a wager OF i'ooo guineas To ono was mado
In London carly In tho present century that
in ten successive cast, of ,bo dice Sven "A and N
would moi H. th,own rbss. a,tda 80. ~, 49, =,
siJs,ed al, ~. .,.e osus "oio no. III
mant Of this featNso inn osrtb,, WAS eonsdnped"
demanded a waecr Of 40 aaS ia gunees 20 on,
that ia The matnrty Of Ss chsnss. mns o Ue
he ~ 81 ,hs Ia,g., .,'re Ths III, ~ WI
surprisine result 'fhs man who held The small
end Of the bot threw the dice and urned the seven
nine times in snccessi"n I'M isvss -, az. oJJs
became alarmed sl,hon1b on tbs th,a,v w ~ III,
maturity of the chances i, might have hem 70
ssnniJ no, 10 .nsn, IL sna. .no , nA. uroW
ever nv The possIbilitisa ~ d. I'D 90, ,bn,
no offered his opponont 40 guinsas 10 he on the
bel, This The lA,,ar REFUSED made ,bo Anal can
and thrsw nIne az and a. When The deiails ~ his
wager were made public tho maihematicians Of the
day computed that INC correct odds should have
been the larger amount given above kuainat
nine succcssIul throws Of Sven they should hnys
been 10 on sos guineas 10 one On inc o,hry
s ssnd S was 'o ,% that .he winns, Of III. bet
cuin.as 10 bo on his wager ins,ead of ibs Sya
guinens that he offered SO certain ia the
law Of the maturity of ths chances that n
has been made tho means Of drtrrmininS The
real chances Of the event Vet the ,heory bss
been denounced as the most elementary Of those
chicSous in lis relation 10 suec,as in ~nm,s ~
chance ~
a system on tho gcneTaii,auon of his tbeoTy
After watching for two hours The NAV Al YouIettc
at Monte Carlo carefully noting The numbers Thai
on those that came up very seldom or no, AT nil
The flrst day he played this combin auon he won
50, 600, but on the second and sI stibseouent
and asst day he had lost not only the amount won
the first day, but sum considerably In excees
OF IT. The fact that no was ultimately N lfrsrr
In no way disproyed tho theory of the maturity ~
his chances For any one 10 build I'm a systrm
on this theory after studying for two hours oniy
the numbers OF the balls that came up winneys
during that period and betting Az ninst that "a
currcnce within a certain limit of ume only socs
W prove tha, he Was very shallow fellow There
SO. or with the zero and double zero' SO holes
or numbers In tho wheel, and az tho chances arc
$50 TO one that the ball will moi fall ,lpon A num-
Der twice in succession the possibility of deylInr
a system founded ON tho maturity oil the chanc.s
in roulette in order 10 beat tho game Is beyond
the power of any man " accomplish II has been
frequently attempted, but never with success
In any calculation that may be made for this pur.
pose IL must DO borne In mind that no single rou-
lette wheel has ever been made no mechanically
perfect that the revolving ball will not be detected
in a mlnutcly fractional degree toward one set of
numbers What that detection may amount u
involves an enormous amount OF records OF turns
OF wheel, and each one differs the difficulty OF
the effort 10 calculate the maturity Of The chances
in the game requires such enormous labor that
IL IN wiser 10 call II luck and DO done with IT,
Application OF tho theory Of the maturity Of
the chances can be found In an experiment which
is known to matlcmaucians II q straight rod
be tossed at random in the air so 10 fall on a
grating Of oquidistant parallel bars, the chance
Of It's falling through depends upon It's length
and thickness and the proportion in which The
Of a circle exceeds the diameter
When the rod and grating have been measured
L.. al.