The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1899-10-29

weeks of 1897 were: Atlantic States,
S23 inches; Gulf, ATT: Texas, ASS, and
for 1899: Atlantic States, 9:32; Gulf,
6:1O: Texas, 2S7. The decline i'm month
ly condition in 1897, he said, twas at
tributed to long continued drought and
yet the crop of 1S9T-'9S, ito which these
melancholy reports referred, exceeded
the previous crop by 2,450,0O0 bales,
| exceeded the largest previous crop (lS.4-
'95) by 100000 bales" Then Mr.. Neill
argued that as both the Atlantic and the
Gulf States, except Texas, had had--ac.
cor(ling to his figures-more rain in Au-
gust and September of this year than
they had in the same months of 1897,
the present crop should be better than
was that of 1897, as far as August AMID
September weather was concerned.
MIR. Neill's views, however, were wide
ly at variance with those held by practl-
cally all the other cotton authorities OF
the United States. who have reached the
conclusion that the cotton crop this year
win be very short one. With view of
testing the accuracy of Mr. Neil'S amaz-
ing assertions. the well known cotton
house of Price, Mccormick II Co, of
this city, Forwarded to the Department
of Agriculture at Washington a request
for comparison of Mr.. Neill's figures
with the official figures. This inquiry has
been answered by John Hyde. chief of
the Division of Statistics of that depart
npnt, in a letter, in which he says in
part:
In answer to your inquiry as to how
far the statement of the rainfall i'm the
cotton belt which appears lin III. Nj.
Neills circular of October il corresponds
with the official records, | have to I'M
form you that the table is made UP in
such a way that mo sort of correspond
ence can be established. Not only does
it fail to mention the particular stations
of the Weather Bureau upon whose re-
ports it is based, but it even leaves IN
doubt the question as to the particular
group in which certain States are i'm
cluded. Various combinations of stations
have been made with a view to reach the
same results as those given in the table,
but entirely without success.
Before proceeding, however, to give
you the official records, / wish to make
one or two comments upon the table as it
stands. Notwithstanding that the circu-
lar is professedly dealing with the months
of August and September, the rainfall
table includes also the last week in July.
1t is in that way, and in that way only,
that the rainfall in THE Atlantic and
uulf States is made to appear greater in
1899 than in 1897
Make the table begin with the first
week in August instead of the hast week
III July, and the rainfall will be shown
to be 6.SS inches in 1899, against 7.23
inches in 1897 in the Atlantic group, and
1856 inches in 1899. against 4.46 inches
in 1897 in the Gulf group, while the
dinimlition in Texas, which Mr.. Neil
himself has to acknowledge, will become
very much greater, the rainfall in that
,ltate during the period under considera-
ton being only 1.97 inches i'm 1899,
against 4.49 inches in 1897.
There is no propriety in including i'm
the table the rainfall in tlIe last week
in July The low condition of the cotton
crop on October / was due almost entire
~ to the drought during August and Sep
tember, the condition ON August /, as
published by this department., being only
Is points below the average for the last
ten years. 1T is worthy of note, however,
that the contention of the circular is not
helped as much as would appear by car
rying the table back to July %, a refer
ence to Chart No. 3 in the monthly
weather review for July showing that
the rainfall in the Gulf States for that
month was mainly in the Florida Penin-
srlia and along the Gulf Coast, a region
chiefly of rice, sugar and sub-troplcal
fruits.
The table / send you herewith shows
the rainfall in August and September for
each of the last four years for each of
the ten principal cotton States and for
Oklahoma and Indain Territory Conn
pairing the figures for 1899 with those for
1897 it will be seem that except in three
,Jtates the entire cotton belt had a small
err rainfall in August and September of
the present year than in the correspond
ing months Of 1897, The decrease ranging
from 3.4 per cent in Arkansas to 00.4
per cent in Texas, and 06.1 per cent In
Oklahoma and Indian Territory. The
only States showing an increased rainfall
in August and September, 1899, over the
corresponding months in 1897, are North
Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee.
THE various States not being of equal
area, and the Weather Bureau stations
not equidistant from ONE another, the conn
parison for the entire cottom belt made in
the accompanying table is not strictly
accurate. No careful examination of the
table cam however, be made without ITS
becoming apparent, that the rainfall
in the cotton region as a whole,
during, the months of August and Sep
TENDER of the present year. was consid-
erably less than in amy one of the three
preceding years"
Another of the important local cotton
houses taking the same position as that
of Price, Mccormick q Co., is Latham,
Alexander & Co., as appears by the fol
lowing paragraph from Mondays Au-
gtIsta Chronicle.
Charles w. jackson, formerly general
freight and passenger agent of the Au-
gusta Southern Railway, has accepted Il
very important commission from the big
cotton firm of Latham, Alexander & Co..
Of New York. Latham, Alexander & Co
have no faith in Neill's estimates. and
have undertaken to give the real situation
by Il personal canvass made of the cotton
belt, and rendered the position to Mr.
Jackson. 1t will be Mr.. Jackson's bust
ness to get as close in touch with the
farms as possible and report fully and
daily by wire and letter what he learns. /"