The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1899-11-17
Spirit of the Press.
WILL THIS YEARS CROP EN-
CEED 100000 BALES?
Atlanta Constitution.

Atlanta Constitution.
The persistent effort of those who
would over estimate the cotton crop for
the purpose of wrecldmg prices, is TO ne
bolstered up, so we have good authority
for saying, by another circular from
Henry NJ. Neill, which is MOST likely at
this very moment i'm the hands Oc his
English amd German friends.
The purpose of this circular will ne
to build up hope ON AN assured $500 900
crop, with the suspicion of 1,000,OO0
more in hiding, and to stiffen the bach-
bone of his friends so as to force the
Farmers into a rushing market, with the
view of catching them. This being the
case, The Constitution would again cali
upon it's farming friends to be prudent
and to watch the market closely. This
years crop has already developed many
surprises, and the probability is tha.
there are more yet i'm sight.
There are more evidences right now
in favor of an 100000 crop than there
is for the mnximum estimate of $500 :
600. 1T will be recollected that when The
Constitution antagonized lNeills l2,U30.-
600 bale estimate by one of 9,J0),U01
that we stated:
The average yield for the past
eighteen years would not he an nm
reasonable estimate, and this would
produce crop of S,525, 100 bales.
But Wishing to arrive at the truth
if possible, let us say that the pres
ent crop will be 10 per cent above an
average that is 4o-100 of a bale per
acre. We will then have a crop of
only 9,410,650 bales, and it would
take a yield per acre which has only
been exceeded twice i'm THE history of
cotton growing. A crop of 10,000,0G0
bales, therefore, would appear to be
large estimate for 1S99-1900 with
probabilities favoriDg 9,500,000
bales"
To have made the 100000 bales
would have required the utmost indul-
gence of mature, beyond which we allow
ed 10 per cent for good measure. The
granting of this large percentage was
simply in the interest of safe calculation,
because all men know that it is physi
cal impossibility for even the ideal crop
conditions to exist over so large an area
Taking the average record of the years,
which is a much safer criterion, We
would have been justified in stalking the
claim at So, 525, $50 bales, but as the
controversy we allowed that.
Now that the cotton-picking season is
over. and that the whole record of
drought and elemental damage is made
up, has the crop just marketed been even
an average ONE? The TERRIBLE visitation
in Texas was an invasion of the average
and the scant fruItage of the plant in
Georgia, which has cut off one-thtrd of
the yield OF the State. also plays SMASH
with any figures based upon an average
AS stated heretofore. newspaper gets
closer down among the people than can
amy other agency and though its figures
may be doubted they generally material
ize into facts.
A canvass of the situation in the cot
tonHgrowing States, found elsewhere, goes
to show that the crop rs much more
likely to range about 100000 bales,
than about any other figure. 1t mast
be reeollected that the cotton in sight
carried over from year to year, is large
ly made mp of understandable stHlt
which simply does dummy duty for COUNT
ing, and that the great percentage on
the cotton in field which remains after
the first picking never leaves the neigh
borhoOd, but is used for home domestic
uses. When we talk about marketable
crop, therefore, and the amount of cot
ton i'm sight, these things should be kept
in view.
1t will he we'll for our farmers mot to
I've stampeded, but to remember that the
world has urgent use for every mer-
charitable potmd of cotton i'm sight and
that the average yield of the past elgh-
teen years only justifes a crop trifie
over 100000 bales.