Virginian-pilot. (Norfolk, Va.) 1898-1911, 1899-06-09
The Outlook Bright All Along the
Line.
VIEWS OF BUSINESS MEN
Tncy Believe wo Have Entered Upon
Period of Increased Consump-
dion OF Iron ma steel shat VIII
LnAt Several Years neveiopmcnt
of Foreign vrade Will Prevent
Reduction In Prices.
Especial to Virginian-P ilot.)

Baltimore. June SIN view of the
great interest throughout the business
world in the remarkable activity and
prosperity of the iron and steel inter-
ests. the Manufacturers Record. under
date of May seth. asked 4 number of
leading producers and consumers of
iron and steel for their opinions on the
following questions:
a. Have we, in your opinion. enter
ed upon period of such increased con-
sumption of iron and steel as to indi-
cate the probability of a continuance
of several years of the present world
wide activity in this country?
CO. VIII the development of our for
eign trade, by furnishing an outlet in
dull times for iron and steel. probably
prevent the recurrence of such extreme
depressions in price as III former pc
RODS?
49, Are the indications favorable for
an ever widening foreign market for
our iron. steel, machinery and kindred
products?
(4) VIII the increased uses for iron
and steel. the development of a navy
and merchant marine, and the eX-
tension of our railways. added to the
NCIHNiAljNiNt ItNullt "a Els Ntl II
countries and Africa. Justify the belief
in still greater expansion Of the iron
and steel trade of the entire world
during the next five or ten years?
THE REPLIES.
In reply to these questions Hon.
Abram S. Hewitt, who has a world
wide reputation for the accuracy of his
predictions on iron matters: Mr.. T.. IL.
Gary, president of the Federal Steel
Company, ard Il number OF other au-
thoritics have given their views, which
we publish to-day. There is almost
unanimous belief in a continuance of
great activity for the next two or three
years, and a steady expansion of pro-
duction and Of the worlds consump-
lion. 1t is generally held that the de-
velopment of our foreign trade will
prevent recurrence of the very low
prices heretofore prevailing in times of
depression. ard that even after the
natural reaction of few years hence
or the present phenomenal activity, we
snail not have TO go back to unpronta-
Die prices. These letters will prove of
general interest:
MIR. HEWITT'S VIEWS.
Mr.. Hewitt says: mo one familiar
with the past history of the iron trade
need be- SURPRISED at the present de-
mard. which undoubtedly exceeds the
ability of the world to supply the
material required. In 1855 | ventured
TO make n prediction as TO the require
ments of the world for iron during the
following hundred years, giving csti-
mates of the production and the con-
sumption for each period of ten years.
The figures then given have been Veri-
fled In very surprising way. 1t is
estimated that the demand of the world
would require 81. 600 600 tons of pig iron
nl la ~ I. To 10
say, in the year 1899 The returns show
that this quantity Of pig iron was pro-
duced and consumed in the year 1898,
the exact limit having been reached
one year in advance OF the predicted
time. 1t must not be imagined, however,
that the increase in production and
consumption proceeds at n regular pace
from year to year. There are periods of
rest. stagnation and recuperation, fol-
lowed invariably by an era of great
activity. AT the outset the increased
demand cannot be met. but 1t has never
taken very long for the production of
the world to catch w. with its con-
sumption.
Your question, therefore, may be
answered briefly by stating that there
is every reason to expect Il period OF
large demand and of great activity for
the next two or three years, after
which time the usual excess of produc-
ton VIII recur and the business, al
though on a scale of great magnitude,
will seem to be quiet and somewhat
stagnant.
THE change from iron to steel how
ever, will undoubtedly modify the con
dtons upon which the worlds supply
will be furnished. From our posses
sion of the cheapest fuel in the world
we are in a condition to undersell all
competitors. and therefore from this
time forward we will have a large and
increasing foreign demand for our steel
products. The export trade has come
to stay and the doctrine OF profession
has met with the inevitable doom which
] predicted in 1888 in the discussion in
Congress on the tariff, wherein l tried
10 make clear, not merely the condi-
tons Of production, hut the certainty
that before the close of the century this
country would necessarily be the great
est producer and exporter of iron and
Steel In the world We have the abili-
~ to meet any conceivable demand,
and although, as ] believe. by the mid
die OF the next century the world will
pe using very much more than 100, 900,
ouo tons per annum, the resources OF
this country will he adequate TO meet
Inc requirements Of advancing civili-
cation based upon industrial progress
6uch Ae mankind has never seen"
ABOUT THE SOUTH.
To this review OF the general iron
and steel situation, Mr.. Hewitt writes
special letter about the South. in
which he says
IN the South the extensive deposits