Ottumwa semi-weekly courier. [volume] (Ottumwa, Iowa) 1899-1903, 1899-08-17
Bryan's Campaign in 1890 Not So
Good as Generally Thought.
LITTLE CHANCE FOR HIN IN 1900
Electoral Vote Calculations show that
His Votes Were Not and Never Can
be Properly Distrlbuted-will
Not be Next President.

Washington, Aug. 14.-Much is being
heard at the, present time from the
friends of Mr.. Bryan, in regard to the
remarkable campaign which he made
in 1896, and as toRthe narrow margin
by which Mckinley was elected. Prom
inence is given to the fact that a
change of less. than 10000 votes, prop
erly distributed through the states of
California, Delaware, Indiana, Ken
lucky, Oregon and West Virginia,
would have given Bryan the election.
1t might be assumed, from the earn
estness with which those Immediately
concerned in Mr.. Bryan's success have
been urging this fact as a reason why
he, should be renominated, that they
hone by devoting themselves particu-
larly to the states mentioned to secure
the necessary 10000 votes and thus
elect him. On the surface ii would APP
Dear that little more time, little
more hard work, and perhaps, in some
instances, little more money, would
effect this change. laying aside the
fact that the republicans will exert
themselves just as much to retain
these votes as the democrats to Sc
cure them, the task of winning these
six states, carried by Mckinley on such
q small margin, is more formidable
than it appears, and the magnitude OF
the undertaking should be correctly
estimated before even the most enthu-
siastic Bryanite should make any cal
culations on any of these states CIV
ing their vote to Bryan in 1900, From
almost the earliest period the same
tendency has been noted on the part
of the defeated party to solace itself
with the thought that change of few
votes in certain states would have given
it the election, while the same fact is
always pointed out by the successful
party as a cause of apprehension con-
corning the result of the next election.
Yet, if the electoral returns for the
twentv-ei~ht elections are examined, it
will be found that to effect the slight
change in the states carried by small
margins, it would have required causes
powerful enough to have similarly eff
fected the other states. and that the
same influences which would have led
the 1000 men who voted for Mckinley
in 1896, and whose votes would have
altered the result, would have been
equally urgent and powerful with some
5VU,Ouu Oh lnelr IellO" citlZeHS. flrSt
of all. it should be remembered that
Mckinley was the first candidate since
1872 to receive clear majority Of the
popular vote that his plurality over
Bryan was 100000, and that he receiv-
ed a larger majority in the electoral
college since grant, except Cleveland
at his second election. Since the time
of Polk. the first president to enter the
White House without a majority of the
! popular vote. there have been but five
elections where the successful candi-
date secured a majority of the popular
vote. The five exceptions were Pierce,
Lincoln (1s64. Grant at both elections
and Mckinley. Hayes and benjamin
Harrison We're elected without even a
plurality. With Mckinley securing
such a large popular majority, as well
as an electoral majority, the defeat oil
BRYAN in 1896 can not be regarded but
as overwhelming. In calculating on the
chance of few thousand votes in the
states mentioned. ii should not be ov-
erlooked that five OF the six were