The Houston daily post. [volume] (Houston, Tex.) 1886-1903, 1899-08-22
HOUSTON, TUESDAY. AUGUST ~.
Ten PAGES TODAY.
MR.. NnuL's COTTON GUESSING.

In discussing the recent estimate of the
next crop of cotton, as given out by Mr..
Henry Neill, the New York Commercial
declares that the New Orleans statsticlan
has been very accurate in mis- predictions
heretofore. and insists that his guessing
powers are more reliable than The govern
ment's forecasts.
In making this statement the CONNER
cial has certainly neglected to look up Mr..
Neilrs record as prophet in 1892, 1895
and 1896. In each of these years his early
estimates were woefuly wrong, and in
1892 his prediction of the ultimate yield
was so far from the correct figures as to
make him a mark for the cotton world 8
ridicue But there is no need to go back
10 1892 to prove the inability OF this sta
tistician 10 predict what man and nature
will do. Last year this mouthplece of the
English spinners declared that i,00G, 900
bales OF cotton had been picked in Texas
at the end of November, and that this
amount constituted "a per cent of the
States crop. AS 1t is now known that the
Texas yield for 1859 Will not exceed
100000 bales 1t will be seen that for
this state alone Mr. Neill missed the cor
rect figures by 10 per cent.
The truth of the matter is that the only
reason Mr.. Neill has any reputation what
ever as cotton authority IL because in
the last four years the production of the
staple, like the demand therefor, has
reached enormous proportions, and he has
simply endeavored each season to make
or SO bales larger than its predecessor.
His estimates generally come at a time
when the farmer Is rushing cotton TO mar
ket and when the spinner is anxious to
believe that there viii be glut of the
product. and quite naturally his outrageous
figures are used TO lower the price. As
there is no way of proving accurately that
such an estimate Is an exaggeration until
at least six months have passed, Mr.. Neill
is able to pose as an authority for that
length OF time, and the manufacturers
thank him for warning them OF the enor-
nous production of a staple they wish to
buy. Then when tho figures OF the crop
movement seem to indicate that the NELL
Yield Is about one million bales In excess
OF the actual crop, this self constituted
prophet and statistical juggler will begin
to issue circulars cutting down his figures
few thousand bales from one cause and
another. and by the time the season ends
he has taken off enough to come within
perhaps half million bales of the actual
production. Then he comes out with n
letter TO the trade calling attention to his
wonderful powers of prediction and begins
the work of making another huge crop on
paper.
1t is all very profitable for Mr.. Nell
no doubt, but II Is an outrage upon the
South that such notorious compiler OF
Inaccurate statistics should be able to in
huence the price of this crop.
II is comforting to record however, that
the last estimate from this source has met
with such ridicule, and its extreme exag
geration of even probabilities made so
manifest that the cotton SPECTATORS every
where are beginning to repudiate It, The
market yesterday recovered nearly all the
loss Mr.. Nelfs sudden pronunoiamento
caused Doubtless he has cried wolf
Just once too often.