The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1899-06-05
sUEssEs AT TIE POPULATION
Gsvernment Experts Say 1t VIII Be About
100000 in 1900.

WARRINGTON. June 3-What will be the nom
ulation OF the United States according to tho
twelfth census1 The official guess Is some-
thing more than 1000 900. or an increase OF
about 100000 in ten years. DR. +. II.
Wines. the assistant director " the census,
sounds note Of warning to those who look for
population Of 30. 000.u00 or mora in 1900
1T will be nowhere near TINT figure" he
says. THE public Is inclined to overestimate
the population. not only ofparticuar NJ ighbor-
hoods. but OF the whole country. the result be-
ing disappointment when the facts become
known. Seventy 1--WE millions. more or less. 10
about what the twelfth census will show tho
population Of the United States to be-"
The Government Actuary. ]. S. Mccoy. 10
often called upon for estimates OF the number
OF inhabitants In the United States at given
dates which he furnishes to Congress and the
executive departments for statistical purposes.
Mr. Mccoy estimates that the population Of
the United States in June. 1900. will hs
77.676,000. 1t 10 now. according to his esti-
mate. 76.011 900. Mr.. Mccoy is quite conf
dent OF the accuracy Of his figures. He DON
not think the actual population will exceed his /
estimate. immigration. he says. has fnlien on
In the present decade. and there has been J
decline In the birth rate. although this las
factor may be Offset by decrease in the deaf II
rate There are no indications that popula-
ton has increased more rapidly in the present
decadeithan In thelpreceding; in fact. the ind-
cations point the other way. Mr.. Mccoy agrees
with DIR. Wines that popular estimates OF the
number OF inhabitants in the United States are
muchitoo large.
The most elaborate and scientific guess at
the population has been made by Or. H. S.
Pritchett. Superintendent OF the Coast and
Geodetic Survey. who predicts that the twelfth
census will show a population OF 77.472 OyO.
His estimate is 100000 smaller than that
OF the Government Actuary. He admits a
probable error in his figures Of 100000 one
way or the other. SO that the two estimates
may correspond even more closely than now
appears. He obtains his figures by means OF
formula based upon the growth Of the popula-
ton as shown at the census periods from 1 40
to 1890. This formula Is expressed by an
equation. which is here given for the edi1ra-
ton Of the curious: P=17.4s41+5 1O2t o 1911
+O030ts. represents the population and the
time in decades after 1840 while the figures
are constants representing various factors Of
the population expressed in millions and frac-
lions OF a million. Worked out. this equation
gives the following interesting estimates OF
our coming population:
1poo.. --... 77.472.oo I197o...--- 257,sss 600
191o.-....... ete78, 900 1880. ..... 2ee. 81 1000
1920. ..-...-.114,< 900 1880. $40. 10000
1880. SO. 1877 900 2ooo.... 1856. $40 900
1870. 1872, 2es 900 21oo. 1.1l2. 1857 900
1880 1870 TAO 900 25oo ... :. $3.50. so2 900
1850. .222, oo7 ooo 1900 .s52. 27a 900
These figures" says DR.. Pritchett. ard
suggestive. to say the least. They show that
within hundred years the population OF this
country will amount to 35O.OOO,OO0. and
within thousand years. II the present rate Of
growth continues. this number will have
grown to nearly 41.0Ooo0O,00o. How gres
change in the conditions ofliving this grow III
OF population would imply 1t is. perhaps. /, u
possible for us to realize. Great Britaingat
present one OF the most densely populated
countries Of the globe. contains about 300 In
habtants to the square mile. Should tho
present rate Of growth continue until the year
290O. the United States would contain over
II 900 persons to zach square mile OF surface"