The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1899-03-09

willing to pay for It; and It was common-
ly thought that when this surplus cotton
would be marketed in the spring Of 1899 It
would be worth but between 81 and 4 cents
a pound In this city. Thus 1t came about
that last fall there was q mad forcing OF
cotton to an immediate sale such as this
country had never seen before, and that
under this pressure the price Of cotton to
be delivered in May in the New York mar
ket sank in the first days OF December to
the lowest figure ever recorded, approx
mating five cents n pound.
II was in vain that q few people
lifted up their voices against what they
believed was an ~extravagant and prema-
ture estimate Of the yield OF cotton.
They declared that no one. not even the
great seerNEILb, could with any assurance
say what the crop would BIO a month before
any OF it was picked. They argued that n
1000, o00-bale crop following one OF over
1000. 900. and that in turn succeeding
a big crop year, would be. in the
very nature OF things, unlikely. They
pointed out that the cotton year was not
over until it actually trds over, and that oil
bOTLS Vi bIOuDlS ullBHb COLuS W L dibcl OuO
cotton had been grown. But their words
fell on stolid ears the reply was that Mr..
NELL had chit 1t right" the last two years
and would, OF course, hit 1t right again.
The prophet issued n further statement
that IL the winter weather was fine the
crop would turn out IL, 100000 bales,
and later supplemented this with an esti-
mate OF IL, $780, 900 bales. So the South
ern planters sold their cotton at whatever
price. Cotton came to be looked upon as
something that would bankrupt whomso-
ever had it, and the only people who would
touch it were the agents here OF English
s~pinners and a few. very few, cool-headed
spectators, who bought on a declining
scale the contracts for the spring deliveries
of the staple which were flung at them by
enthusiastic bears.
But about the middle OF December the
rush Of cotton to market ceased. 1t was
accounted for at first by the theory that
the cotton which had been sold previously
was distress" cotton, the property Of
planters who had to sell it to meet press
ing obligations. The movement thereafter,
it was predicted, would not be quite as
rapid. but would be steady and constant.
DuO pIShiSOtOh ia " AhS
ceipts OF cotton, instead OF being largely
in excess Of the year before, dropped to
that years level and then fell below it.
The falling off was then attributed to bad
weather. The weather during the latter
part Of December and in January and Feb
ruary was undoubtedly bad, possibly the
most trying in the history Of the South;
that it destroyed a good deal Of cotton and
considerably impeded the crop movement
cannot be questioned. But no mere bad
weather could account for the extraordi-
nary slump in receipts in every quarter
Of the cotton region, from Tennessee
to lower Texas, and from the sea islands Of
South Carolina to the Indian Territory, and
which in three months time caused an excess
Of 45O, 900 bales over last years movement
to sink to a decrease OF nearly $50, 900
bales beneath it.
Finally it was said that in Texas, where
about one-third Of the crop is normally pro-
duced, enormous mounts Of cotton were
being held back for lower freight rates on
the railroads; but the railway authorities
in tina State say that the visible and invis-
ible supplies OF cotton along their different
lines do not 10Y exceed 10000 bales,
dSdlilSb uedlly tulco ihco phuo dhiouho oo
estimated, and subsequently verified by
the event, at this time last year. Lat
terly the weather throughout the cot
ton belt has been wholly favorable for
marketing cotton and for picking what
remains in the fields, and yet the move
ment, after an almost imperceptible rise
following the storm in February, still tells
the same story Of slackening and decrease.
This, too, Notwithstanding there has been
the strongest impulse to an increased move
ment. namely. a very considerable advance
in t le price Of the staple.
Tn ruth can no longer be concealed that
the diminished movement Of cotton is due
to exhaustion, and that the cotton crop of
1S9S-99 has been grossly overestimated;
that the prophecy Of Mr.. NELL Of a 49,
900, OOo-bale crop, which was the ground
for this expectation, was simply a reckless
guess and that the fright caused by this
great exaggeration led the American cotton
planter to sell his crop for millions Of dol
lars less than 1t was worth. We print here
with from the Financial Chronicle Of last
week a statement showing the amount Of
the crop which has come in sight each
month during the present season compared
with the amount each month in previous
cotton years: