Evening star., 1899-02-04
TREATY PROSPECTS
its Friends Short of the Needed Two
Thirds.
TIE RESULTS OF FODAY'S CANVASSES
Senators May Shrink From Respon-
sibiIity Of Opposition.
THE LIST OF UNY1ELDING

None of the actual canvasses of the Sen
ate showed today a sufficient number Of
votes to ratify the peace treaty The can
vass of the friends Of the treaty showed
from one 20 three votes short of the neces-
sary two-thirds. The canvass of the oppo-
sition shows thirty-three votes positively
pledged against the treaty. and which are
relied on by the opposition managers as alb
soluteIy to be trusted; and four more that
have been recorded in opposition, but
which there is not he same confidence in.
So much for the canvass. On the other
side of the proposition is the fact that the
senators who array themselves against the
ratification of the treaty assume very
grave responsibility. which is likely to ap-
pear even more grave when the time ar
rives for the vote to be taken. Basing cal
culatioEs on past experience there is a
large allowance to be made for the proha-
biHty of certain senators shrinking from
this responsibility In all ordinary cases it
IS safe to assume that some who loudly
proclaim their opposition TO very urgently
demanded action in the Senate will be
fognd occupying q changed position when
it comes TO d roll call. On this equation the
hopes Of the treaty rest.
Allowance Is made for bluff and for nat
ural reluctance on the part of Individuals
to risk grave responsibilities. The fact is
approach a vote with much uncertainty
as TO the result. Some of the senators
who have given their word to the opposi-
ton refuse to commit themselves at all
when approached by the friends of the
treaty.
In support of the confidence asserted by
the friends of the treaty it is claimed that
even Mr. Hale who is one of the strongest
opponents OF expansion, will vote for the
treaty if it comes to a pass where his SIN
gle vote would change the result, deciding
the case one way or the other. A number
OF senators who are openly committed
against the treaty are looked upon by the
advocates of ratification as liable to change
their position when it comes to the pinch.
Certain Opposition.
one estimate made along this line is that
the only men in the Senate who can be
set down as absolutely certain to vote
against the ratification of the treaty are:
Bate, Berry. Caffery, Cockrell, Daniel, Cor
man, Hoar. Jones Of Arkansas, McI4aurtn,
Mallory Martin. Mitchell. Money, Murphy,
Turley, Turner, Turpte. Vest and White
twenty-f0ur. The most now claimed for
the treaty on an actual canvass. however,
i nfty-nIne votes, and this Is reduced by
the more careful to ffty-seven. This is by
actual canvass, and does not take into ac-
count a floating vote, which the friends
OF the treaty count on.
The managers of the opposition declare
that the following senators will vote against
tho treaty, it being impossible to shake
them in their determination to do so: Bacon
Bate, Berry, Caffery. Chiffon, CockreH
Daniel. German, Hale Heitfeld. Hoar
Jones Of Arkansas, Jones of Nevada, Ken
ncy, McEnery, McLaurin. Mallory Martin,
Mills. Mitchell Money. Murphy. Pasco, Pet
JErew. Rawlins, Roach, Smith, Tillman,
Turley, Turner, Turpie. Vest and White
80.