The times., 1899-12-01
FRIDAY, DECEMBER !, 1889.
A Condition of suxpensc.

Condition OF suspense.
One would imagine, from the quiet that
has appeared to obtain in Europe in con-
nec,ion with questions of Intervention or
mediation in South Africa, movements in
China. and in Persia, that the high politi-
cal situation had settled down TO a condi-
ton OF inertia If not Of amity and good
fellowship. Il can be safely said that
dispassionate analysis Of current condi-
tions would not Justify such an opinion.
Europe. indeed with the probable Cx-
ception of Germany, is playing a waiting
game and would be quite ready n any
oppoTtune moment 20 assume an active and
aggressive attitude in relation 10 many
matters in which dynastic political. or
economic interests. ambitions jeaiousies.
or revenEes are very much involved.
For the moment the Anglo-SaXon Drei-
bund is sxerting a quieting IL not a para
lying effect upon certain designs which
were pregnant with danger 10 the peace
o. the world a few weeks ago. Nobody
knows better than do the continental csbi-
nets that the understanding between the
United States Great Britain. and Ger
many is entirely informal; but the fact
that j, IS not based on written treaty
Of military alliance does not in any sense
blind European statesmen 10 its signih-
cancc or its efficiency in relation 10 affairs
in the Far East Again there is good rea-
son Tor the assumption that England and
Germany have reached an agreement Tor
common action In the event OF he immi-
neHt disintegTajion of Morocco. should
that view prove 70 be correct France and
Spain would have 20 surrender their mu-
tusl hope OF being able 10 establish a
strong Latin menace to Great Britain at
the mouth OF the Mediterranean; that Is.
as the general world situation stands to-
dsy. That il might change suddenly and
alsrmingly is quite within the range OF
human possibilities.
The steady movement of the great States
toward the goal Of their destiny is not
hating materially. Russia. al least, has
realized the hope Of generations and. in
the completion Of her railway line from
vIadiyostock to the Gulf Of Pc Chi Ii. has
a seaport open all the year. Il is 10 be a
free port. by which We presume is meant
that il is TO be free until the year 1909,
when. as we understand, the Gar intends
10 raise a tariff barrier there and elsewhere,
as by that time the trans-SibeTian Railway
viii be in operation, and Russia viii imi-
tate the barbaric fiscal policy which has
so long marked the United States 10 its
discredit. However, IL We have more good
fortune than We have consistency, we shall
keep on demanding the open door in China
and, il is 10 be hoped. get it, That may
seriously depend upon events in the near
future which even now are cooking in the
pot OF fate
Russia has secured from the Shah a ten
years extension OF her option 70 control
railway construction IN Persia, and has
arranged 10 establish and maintain a regu-
lar diplomatic representative near the
Court OF the Ameer OF Afghanistan at
Herat What these things ultimately mean
Is not matter OF mystery. The Muscovite
power IS relentlessIy determined 10 expand
by taking over Persia, and securing a
great naval and commercial foCthOld and
port on the Persian Gulf.
We need not ignore the probability tha,
the history OF Europe and Of the whole
world for some years TO come may be
written in the red ink OF the South African
war. Serious reverses TO Great Britain il
that quarter, Notwithstanding the extreme
efforts the British Government has put
forth 10 reduce the Beers. would very
greatly enhance the danger OF foreign il.
reference, which might not stop at The
Cape, but be extended 10 India and perhap,
other segregated parcels OF the Empire
For II it should appear TO the minds o.
European soyeTeigns and statesmen that n,
assaults OF two small peasant States in Al
rics were sufficient 20 strain the war or
Esnization and resources Of Great Britain
il might not take them long 10 reach III,
conclusion that the mistress Of the sea.
could be attacked By coalition OF stronl
powers in her most vulnerable point il
Asia with encouraging prospects Of success
From the British viewpoint, therefore !
is much TO be deplored that inefIiclenc,
somewhere In London allowed the Trans
vaal war 10 be precipitated under coudi
1ions miseTably unfavorable 10 the imperia
interests; arms, and prestige. 1t is vel
that Lord sslisburys Government shoul,
see the evil OF its past negligence iu thu
respect, and attempt 10 remedy il, even q
this late day, by organizing a second corp
for service In South Africa But the hft,
thousand additional troops which may b
needed cannot be made ready in a day. DO
IN q month, ard, in the mean time, 81
Redyers Butler is likely 10 have a hart
time OF It. One such disaster as the fal
OF Iadysmith or the rout OF Lord Methuen'
command would set the country In a blaz
Of iHsurrectioD, Afrikander and Kafir an
then his force OF eighty thousand troop
would have little chance 10 conduct often
eiye operations against On enemy whicl
could meet what numbers he might be abb