The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1899-12-18
Tho Deadlock in Cotton.

Our diminished exports Of cotton during
the present season are due to O difference
OF opinion which Is OF serious impor-
lance. for. after all. cotton Ia our chief
article OF export, it's value exceeding
that OF all our exports Of grain. Since
Sept. 1. the beginning OF the cotton year.
our exports OF the article have been only
2.27S,974 bales, as against 3,546, ass bales
in the last season. II is true that the
average price Of cotton this year has been
greater than last, but that increase has
NOT been enough to Offset the decreased
quantity and prevent its export from being
less. not only in quantity. but in value also.
than for any year since 1890. A decrease
OF over 800, 900 bales OF cotton represents
a money value OF nearly SAC. 900. 900.
The cause OF this decreased expectation
has been a most remarkable difference OF
opinion between the growers and foreign
buyers OF cotton concerning the size OF this
years crop. In this country cotton grow
ers, cotton manufacturers and cotton
dealers have agreed generally In the opin-
ion that it is not likely to exceed $780,
600 or 8, 100000 bales, and thus be from
$500, 600 To 800, 900 bales less than the
crop OF last year The final estimate OF the
Government statistician. reported to have
been made with unusual care, is OF crop
slightly under 1900, 900 bales. II this il
approximately accurate. OF course 1t just-
fees the price at which cotton Is now selling,
and indicates very certainly much higher
prices In the future.
On the other hand, the foreign buyers OF
cotton, who are mostly in Liverpool are
apparently pinning their faith to the reiter-
ated assumption Of Mr.. HENRY NELL, the
well-known New Orleans cotton expert and
agent OF Liverpool importing house, that
this years crop would he over 1000, 900
bales or. In round numbers, about the
same az last years. II Mr.. NELL is right
cotton is undoubtedly high at the prices
now ruling and they will decline Conse-
quently the Liverpool brokers and the Man.
chester spinners have steadfastly declined
to buy cotton this year, except In COM
paratively small quantities, 30 that in
Great Britain whittier most OF exported
cotton goes, the entire visible supply at
present is only 1910 bales, as against
], 1853. 900 bales at the same time last year.
The British manufacturers and buyers
have stood to their position, although they
have had to face tho greatest consumption
ever known, both in England and on the
Continent, and a steady decrease OF the
worlds visible supply.
Mr.. NELL and his foreign supporters
maintain, however, that there is just as
much cotton in tho world AZ ever and that
the only reason for the apparent decrease
In Its quantity is that cotton is being
held by the growers in the small towns
OF the South for the higher prices which
they believe to be inevitable later In the
cotton year. To come extent, at least. this
assertion Is undoubtedly justified by the
facts. The stocks Of cotton In the interior
towns OF the South are now about 100 Ooo
bales greater than they were at the
same time last year. This accumula-
lation, however. cannot be said to account
fully for the great decrease In the general
quantity OF cotton that has come in
sight during the present as compared
with the last season. the decrease being
from e,723.242 to s. 2os,5s
Naturally, the consequences to the South
ern planters OF this stubborn FOREIGN !
opinion have been unfortunate. They are
heavy and unusual borrowers OF money! in |
our market, with which to carry their cot
ton' while dealers In exchange here notice
an equally heavy and unusual decrease In
the amount and value OF bills for cotton
purchased by foreigners. So far as the
great cotton business Is concerned, our New
YORK banks. therefore. have experienced an
increase In the outgo OF money and a
decrease in its inflow.
VI course this deadlock between the
growers and the foreign buyers will be-
broken sooner or later by the disclosure
OF indubitable facts as to the amount
OF this years crop, and, manifestlv.
The break cannot be postponed very