Yorkville enquirer. [volume] (Yorkville, S.C.) 1855-2006, 1899-08-05
aelisetllamto,,s &eaaing.
POPULATION In 1900.
The Twelfth Census Will Show Less Than
74,4So. .a6O.

The Twelfth Census Will Show Less Than
74,4so.a 800.
From the New York Tribune.
Preparations are already considera.
bly advanced for the enumeration of
the population of the United States,
which, recurring in the regular decen.
nial order provided for by the consti-
tuition and followed in unbroken
sequence since 1890, will establish the
starting point for the twentieth centu-
ry development of the worlds great
est republic. In advance of the actual
count, which will occur during June,
1900, there is. naturally much specula-
ton as to the actual increace during
the decade now closing, and as is
equally natural among an optimistic
people, especially characterized by an
ever reverbating national pride, there
is a popular tendency to overstate the
present and immediate prospective
population. 1t is not uncommon to
hear or read the phrase "eighty millions
of population )" a metropolitan news
paper has collected estimates of popu-
tion on January 1, 1899, made princl-
pally by governors of state, which
aggregate 1885, 3,231; and in spite OF
the mark declined in immigration dur
ing the present as compared with the
decade Immediately preceding the i'm.
preston that the twelfth census will
show a population aggregating not less
than seventy eight or seventy-seVen
millions is almost universal.
An estimate prepared by the gov
ernment actuary of the treasury de-
partment, published by the bureau of
statistics of that department., and
made the basis of several important
calculations undertaken in the latter
office, gives support to the popular ex-
pectation. This estimate places the
population on June l, 1898, at a..
389 900, thus assuming an increase of
II, 1861 or 1879 per cent. since the
census of 1890. A very rough calcu-
lation, involving a minimum of math-
ematical knowledge, yet one that
would not be widely inaccurate for so
short period if the original premises
were correct, shows that this estimate
involves an average annual increase OF
l All 900, which, if carried to the end
of the decade, would give total pop
ulation ut that time of 1882, 900. A
more careful study of the treasury es-
Inmates, taking each year since 1890,
indicates that the actuary assumes
the movement of population conforms
to what is known as an algebraic curve
of the third degree. Such curve may
be prolonged indefinitely, and it in
wolves but comparatively simple cal
culation to discover that the treasury
estimates of population for the year
1900 must, unless the present method
is radically modified, be between IT,
675, 900 and 77,6S0,0OO.
Taking the mean of these figures
the increase from 1890 to 1900 would
be 24.O4 per cent, which is to be COM
pared with 24.S6 per cent. from 1880
to 1890, and 1854 per cent. from 1860
to 1870. These percentages result from
accepting the very reasonable correc-
ton of the census of 1870, the def
cheney of which is generally recog-
nized, proposed by the authors of the
report on population of the eleventh
census. The percentages resulting
from the use of the uucorrected total
for for 1870 are 90.0S and 22.63, re-
spectively. 1t is not impossible that
the population of the United States in
1860 is overstated in the census of that
year.
Doubt inevitably attaches to the pos
sibility of so great an increase during
the present decade, when the facts
that the natural rate of increase
of population in regions once fairly
occupied tends constantly to de-
crease, and that immigration has con-
siderably fallen off since 1890, receive
attention. The necessity of making
suitable allowance for the former
source of error is well illustrated by
the successes and failures in the cele-
brated series of estimates made by
Elkannah Watson some time between
the census of 1910 and that of 1920.
These are portrayed in the following
table: