New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1899-07-28
JPOy PREDICTION AND NEEDS.

The official report Of the Iron and Steel Asso-
catlon embracing complete returns from every
furnace in the country for the first half of 1899,
Is another evidence of the frankness and willing
effort to satisfy the public needs which the asso-
citation has so often shown. To gather such re-
ports from 415 furnaces, Of which 240 were in
operation on June 80, required something more
than admirable organization and liberal expend-
iture There was needed also n hearty read-
ness on the part of owners, and n degree OF
promptness not often attained in similar efforts.
BY the aid of the report thus made practicable
within twenty-five days after the half year
closed the public has at command highly vaiua-
BILE information regarding the possibility Oh
serious scarcity Of iron in coming months.
1t is stated that the actual production was
G2S9167 gross tons in the first half Of 1899
against 5,s69,103 tons in the first half OF last
year and 1904, 231 in the last half Neither rec
ord has ever been approached in any previous
half year, the second half Of 1897 only reaching
5249204 tons. For the twelve months ending
with June the output was therefore 12lo339S
tons, which is considerably more than the con-
sumption has ever been in any previous fiscal or
calendar year. But the consumption this year
has also drawn heavily upon stocks previously
on hand, reducing them from 156,336 tons on
July 1, 1898, to 415,333 on January /, and TO
127, 1913 OH July l. 1899. This indicates con-
sumption In the first half Of 1899, without al
lowance as yet for foreign trade, amounting TO
GOT, 307 tons The net exports for the halt
year will be reported soon by the Bureau or
Statistics. but in five months were Hiatt tons,
which would leave 6,459,S35 tons for consump-
ton in the half year less net exports in June.
The consumption with net exports reckoned Tor
the last half of 1898 was 6059,1S9 TONS indicat-
ing an increase of about 100000 tons.
But it is essential to observe that these data,
the most complete that could be obtained. are
liable to deceive in one important pont-the
stocks carried by manufacturers for their own
use In the language of the association, the sta
tistics edo not include pig iron sold and not re-
moved from the furnace banks or pig iron In
second hands or in the hands of creditors, or
"pig iron manufactured by rolling mill owners
"for their own use" If the Carnegie company
bought from other makers during the half year
100000 tons In part delivered, and had on hand
that and other iron of its own production for its
own use. no part Of such stock would be included.
and the stocks unsod might be reduced by the
entire quantity so purchased. Precisely this
did occur to an extent not known In more than
one case and when 1t is considered that the
preat concerns which have contracts reaching
far ahead are those which would be most able
and most clearly compelled to fortify them
selves by carrying large stocks it seems not i'm
probable that the quantity actually manufact-
ured into forms for use was smaller in the last
half of 1898, but especially in the first half or
1890. than the quantity produced and taken
I'M m q
actually consumed over 200, 900 tons a month, 1t
would not be strange If they had increased their
stock on hand by full months consumption or
more.
The association reports that several of the lao
furnaces out of blast on July have since DloWn
I'm. and that others are preparing, and the lIn-
preston seems warranted that even the unprec-
edented production in June is now being sur
passed. Regarding the supply or ore the asso-
citation does not yet report but there appear 10
be unusually light stocks available at lake
ports. with little for sale, and strike OF
handlers at important docks threatens emDar-
rassment Many mines which have long Deen
idle some for fifteen or twenty years. 1t Is said,
have now been opened and are again at work,
while the exploration and development or new
mines are being pushed with unexampled en-
erny. There are no indications of an exhaustion
NJ suppIy The sole question Is whether enough
con he supplied at the furnaces before navlga-
tion closes to prevent stoppage OF some works
mart of the winter The question whether the
consumption-for reasons already given, proba-
b,r MT much II any greater than the production
in the half year. and on the face OF reports
800 tons weekly below the production on
July will continue as large through the year
Is one which statistics do not answer But IN
view OF the great advance In prices 1t Is dlm-
cult TO avoid the conclusion that some decrease
is probable, enough at least to prevent any
serious famine in iron
I'M sober second thought. Mr.. Coler is likely
| 4. orcIude that n Bird in the Controllers Office