Arizona republican. [volume] (Phoenix, Ariz.) 1890-1930, 1899-07-28
BUSINESS OF A YEAR
Most Remarkable i'm the For
eiga Trade of America,
Trade Expected Now 10 Settle Upon
the Most Prosperous and Per-
manent Basis the Unifed State s
Has EVer f1nOWn.

Year VI tilc InIl6u 'oiAItS- AMI TIE uiil-
cial returns enable us 10 make COM
pIrison between the two most remark
able years in the foreign trade of the
country. Taken as whole. the trade
of last year exceeded thar Of the year
preceding total of imports and
exports combined being 81 934 600 Gu0
for 1859 and 81. SIT Geo, eco for 1878.
showing an increase of $77.G00.OO0.
The increase. however. has heen en-
<irely upon the imports which exhibit
4 gain of SS1. 900. 100 while the ex-
ports have declined SiOG0,O00. The
increase in the Imports deserves atten-l
ton. About threA-four5hs OF tEltI
gain has arisen duri1g the second half
OF the year; which shows that i las
been almost entirely the consequence
of he great revival Of business which
| set in with the opening of 1899. This
expansion il the Imports. however
can hardly be regarded as IN ;nd;ca-
ton of tendency 20 over trading,
whether comparison he made with tie
importations of pr,yious years. or
with the volume Of the exports. Last
years imports f.ll $50, 10000 below
those of 1S95-6.-$67 100000 below
those of 1S9G-7.-ani So 800 900 he
low those of 1919.
The excess OF cxp5rts over imports
was last year less by $S5, 100. .0G0 than
for 1878. ytt it : fully double thn
average surplus Of the four preceding
years, and in fact las never been ap-
preached in any previous period of OR
history. 1t is not easy TO put an exact
value upon this eXi-HOrdinary cond;-
tion of ,;he trade balance rs an .ndi-
cation of what may De the ruture pro
portion between imp3rts and experts.
1t is suDertioHs &c explain what is
generally undersH ood. that /; e extra
ordinary balaGce of CUR foreign trdGc
for the last two years has been main
ly due. first. TO extraordinary cereal
crops in this country concurrenily
with short crops in nearly all G;htrI
countries. next IN Increase N orr OK
ports of manufactures. and EeXt tc 4
comparatively falling of in the i'm
pOrts,-.he imports Of the last two
years having averaged S656,500. COO. |
while for the next three preceding
years the average wos $T5S. 500, 90. !
The first of these cluscs--aUundant
crors-is likely TO be less important
during the crop year fS99-1900 than it !
has proved for the last two years: for. |
on the one hand our wheat crop will !
show a falling off and, on the other |
hand the foreign crops show large
increase. which is likely to reduce the
price of our diminished aXpcrtable |
surplus. As to our exports Of uanu- |
factured goods. it is difficult 10 fore
cast how they may compare with he
largely increased movement of the last
two years.
So far as respects Ehe future OF the |
import trade,-if the large increase of /
the past year has been due to the re-
newed prosperity of the country, it |
seems reasonable to assume that that |
gain will be maintained for so long
rs the recovered prosperity is main |
tanned. Perhaps, the trade of the |
last six months may afford some indi- |
cation of the direction the foreign |
balance may be expected to take dur
ing the new fiscal year. It is there
fore of interest to note that While, for
the second half og 1S97-S, the excess
of expor.s over imports was S3O5, 800
COO the surplus for the same portion |
of the year just closed was only
$195. 100. .OOO.-a decrease at the rate
of 1921. 100000 per year
The only discouraging factor is the
outlook of the money market. although I
it has worked somewhat easier dur
ing the week. The next several bank
statements, therefore. are looked for
ward TO as important factors in the
situation and will be potential in their
influence in affecting fluctuations.
The activity in trade and the uses of
money therefore still continues all
over che country. and this doubtless in
terferes with the flow of money to this
center. The low bank reserve for this
season of the year is offset by the
general feeling that the demand for
funds upon New York for the moving
of the crops will be materially lessen
ed as compared with previous years,
due to the unusual supply of money
which has accumulated AT all interior
points The uniformity in the rates of
interest in the four great money cen-
ters of the world at the present time
Il condition of established
relations Which is likely to be more
Or less permanent, in the future. The
ability to change this by Europe, so
far as its being applied to this coun-