The times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1897-1901, 1899-01-04
i. Ne,, Mcnnce to Ponce.


Because the worthy Car of Russia coun-
sells peace and disarmament and the civil
lied states are preparing to join with him
in considering that humanitarian question,
il does not follow that the New Year pre-
sents no prospect of trouble among the
nations. China, of late a chronic storm
centre in high politics, offers reason for
fear that 1899 may witness the outbreak
of the titanic war between European pow
ers that has been so long threatened and
which was only ayerted during the year
past by almost superhuman efforts on the
part of leading cabinets and diplomatists.
The Fashoda incident came periiously
near bringing on hostilities between Eng
land and France. and the final disposition
Of it has embittered the latter to almost
the point of desperation. But, bad as the
Fashoda quarrel was, it did not contain
half the elements of affront and defiance to
the British government that the recent
action of France at Shanghai involves. AS
the London Times tersely states il, China
is merely a machine to register external
pressure" In surrendering to the Gallo
troll over an already coded and extra-ter-
ritorialized area at Shanghai. in part occu-
pied by British subjects under their own
flag China has only yielded to the force
majeure present at the moment. British
opinion, as expressed by the London
Times, does not resent the act of the help
less agent, but the insult of the principal.
DIT thnl in, fba
disputed territory refuse to abandon their
rights in ii, and look to their government
to protect them.
No one can doubt for a moment that the
protection will be extended, or that it will
not stop short of military eieetment
proceedings if the French should at
tempt forcible possession. Herein lies
the menace OF war. 1t is possible
that the action of France in the
premises may be unsupported by any out
side influence, and is a result only of the
policy of annoyance TO England that has
seemed OF late 20 strike French leaders as
being clever and placative of wounded ma
tional vanity. In that case nothing worse
than an exasperating diplomatic difference
is likely to result, and the Paris govern
ment will eat its acts as it has more than
once before. On the other hand, no doubt,
there is a strong suspicion in Great Britain
that the aggression at Shanghai has been
winked at if not inspired by Russia, now
the supreme influence at Pekin. If that
suspicion should prove to be well founded,
it would be altogether reasonable to eX-
pect that France would insist upon taking
and holding the prize wrung from the
powerIess Celestials. and then trouble
would surely begin, and all over the world
perhaps.
The extent to which Russia might go in
backing France against England is a ques-
ton. Ii Germany could be depended upon
to join, OF 10 remain absolutely neutral for
a price. the outlook might be a very seri-
Gus one for the British Empire. But there
is some reason for believing that the alli-
ance between autocratic Russia and mobo-
cratic France is neither as cordial nor as
firm as might appear on the face OF things.
The se-called French republic has never
been stable and its fall has only been
postponed for the lack of a man strong
enough TO insure him the support of the
army in effecting coup d'etat. II may be
that Russia. as we'll as other continental
states. would like to see an end TO the
comic opera government of the military
mob in Paris. 1t might follow that one or
another of them would think it policy to
encourage France in taking the plunge of
war against England that certainly would
result in overseeing the preseM regime,
whatever else might be among the conse-