Arizona republican., 1899-09-20
FIGURING ON 1900.

There have been two presidential
elections held under the apportionment
established by the last federal census,
CT 1890, those of 1892 and 1895, and
next years presidential election,
though occurring after the enume1a-
ton of the Inhabitants which will be
made in the month of June, will be
subject to the census of nine years ago.
For this reason, those political proph-
cts and computers who in advazde OF a
presidential election are accustomed TO
ground predictions On changes in the
electoral college," have no chance at
present, fer the number CT states par
/ ticipating in the next presidential cleo
ton will be the same as three years
ago, and the electoral vote III each will
be idea tical
Some of the Bryan supporters, dis
satisfied with the assertion frequently
made that their candidate, if nominal
ed in 1900, would have less chance of
success than he had in 1896. have talk
en- to figuring the situation in the cleo
toral college in the latter year scme-
! thing as follows: Mckinley lad 95
more electoral votes than Bryan, so
that the democratic candidate next
year will have to retain all that Bryan
received and secure As in addition. OF
these, u are assured from Kentucky,
Delaware is sure to furnish 3 more,
while Maryland and West Virginia are
| natu- ally disposed to old party affilia
items and add IA between them to the
number needed. This makes 90 of the
48 and leaves 10 to be looked fer else
where. The two states relied upon by
these Bryanites to make up the re
quired number are Indiana with Is
votes and Oregon with 4.
These computers. however, take into
no account the prospective losses from
the Bryan column next year, CT states
which, since 1895, have gone repubIi-
can-Kansas, with 10 electoral votes,
Wyoming with 3, and Washington
with 4, total of IT, which would en-
tirely destroy the correctness OF the
present calculation. In two states of
the country, both carried by Mckinley
in 1896-keTtUcky and California
the vote was so c1cse that The electoral
vote was not carried s1iidly for either
candidate. In California, carried by
Mckinley by 1900. MI. Bryan had one
CT the electors, and in Kentucky, car
RED by Mckinley by $50 votes, Mr..
Bryan had enc c. tha elec'5-rs, also In
the state elections of 1898, however.
California was carried by the republi-
can nominee fer governor by 10000,
and the Golden state is now regarded
as being permanently in the republi-
can column without any serious dan
ger of loss this year.
Prior to 1892 it was customary for
the political leaders of beth parties to
group New York, New Jersey and Con-
neCticut together as three doubtful
states, which, subjected usually to the
same political influences S,1d the came
public considerations, voted tbs same
way. Ti3 these states was ascribed the
balance cf power" formerly exercised
by Pennsylvania, the keystone state,
but this consideration Of their political
Importance prevails 10 longer, for I'M
der the existing appointments the
party carrying all three is % longer
assured CT success, and in 1892 Mr..
Cleveland, Who received the whole 80
votes Of them, would have received
225 votes against 1877 for his competi- !
tor. Harrison, and PIG fer his two COM |
pe;.itors, Harrison and Weaver, had all !
three gone against instead q il favor !
# The democratic ticket.
Moreover, New Jersey is now a Sc
curely republican state with repub- |
1ican vice president OF the United |
E les and a Jersey member of the !
presidents cabinet. and the chance CT |
its return to tie democratic column in
or before 1900 is quite remote. The |
newly admitted western and north
wesissi~n states have changed the reIa- !
tiCn cf the political partics consider /
ably, but this consideration does rot .
deter. even 0ne year in advance of the |
nomination. the pclitiClI cCmputers /
from making 6heir estimates. There /
viii be AT votes in the next electoral
college, and 324 will be necessary to
elect. The popular vote in 1900 will
probably exceed 10000, 000.-New York
Sun.