The times., 1899-11-08

diplomatic impasse by violently seizing the
place out Of hand
This could be done by moving the Port
Arthur and Talienwan garrisons overland
or by sea. The latter method would in
volve the risk of opposition by superior
naval force; but none of the other nations
interested have troops to interpose on
| terra irma, unless we are to include Japan
in the consideration. That country is more
than likely TO be a party to any difficulty
that may arise. Japan is filled with bitter
hatred OF Russia for robbing her of the
fruits of victory, after her war with China
1t is said that hordes OF Japanese soldiers
have been entering Korea for months past
in the guise of immigrants; and that prep
arations for some sort Of military demon
stration have been going on steadily in
| the Mikado's Empire for year or more.
It is believed that Japan regards the time
| as opportune for the settlement of old
scores and for the checking of Russian ag
gressions in Korea and the vicinity. So
it may well be that such a movement by
Russia upon Nieu-Chwang as we have in
dicated would light the signal for very
! serious war in which most of the leading
powers sooner or later would become in
voIved and even the United States might
be included.
Our national attitude in view of the sit
uation is simple and frank Russia has
been advised that if she will enter into a
written agreement to maintain Nieu-
Chwang as an open port, as far as Ameri-
can commerce is concerned, should the
place fall into her hands that arrangement
will satisfy us and we shall not then med
die in that particular affair, otherwise. But
should Russia refuse this concession, the
treaty rights Of the United States and its
/ dignity would necessitate a vigorous course
of action.
1t is. therefore, not difficult to see that
circumstances may force an evolution Of
the present Anglo-saxon understanding in
| the East into the condition of an active al
lance, in which, as has been above sug-
gested, 1t would not be strange if Japan
should take part
What position would France occupy in
/ such an event? Russia evidently would
need her assistance, and in ordinary cir
! cumstances probably would have it. But
/ France has an extensive and expensive
/ exposition on her hands. and would think
! twice before deliberately sending that en-
/ terprise to perdition; a thing which would
surely happen were the country to engage
IN war. And then, what would Germany
+ be doing meanwhile? That is a very
grave question. The Kaiser might wish
to be neutral but neutrality might be q
difficult matter, and if France were badly
Handicapped by a distant and costly ad-
/ venture. he might be sorely tempted to
make himself unpleasant on the near side
/ of the Rhine. Again, it might be dis
1 covered that the Russo French alliance
was confronted by a coalition Of Great
Britain. Germany, the United States and
Japan, Austria and Italy would in sucn
an went. be more than apt to side with
Germany. Notwithstanding the earnest de-
sire of both to get a chance at some loot
in China. which Russia and France would
be more certain to promote than would
the other side. Considering all the fore
going, it would seem probable that Rus
sia should be ready to make terms with
America on the basis stated. That would
withdraw US from the contest, as far as
Nieu-C -Chwang is ground of controversy.
But it should not be forgotten that our
general Eastern policy might still keep
US in evidence, even after the immediate
cause OF irritation had been removed. We
have already given the European powers
to understand that while the South Afri-
can war shall be unsettled any movement
! against Great Britain within our general
sphere Of activity VIII be regarded as un-
friendly. In addition TO this hint, the fact
that we have. or soon viii have, forty-six
war vessels in Asiatic waters ought to be
sufficiently significant TO the Cabinets Of
st. Petersburg and Paris.