The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1899-09-11


Effect Upon Wall Street-LoS
RonlS Reserves Check Trading.
NEW YORK, Sept 1O.-Henry Clews'
weekly stock letter says: There seems 70
be no haste to turn the EXTRAORDINARILY
hopeful business outlook to pracuca4 "0-
count in Wall street The transactlois
at the exchange average about 4oo,oVo
shares per day. Operators are returning
from their summer haunts but, for the
nrasent. alpear to be content to merely
familiarize themselves with the factors
of tl,e situation This is condition winch
suits we'll the purposes of the speculative
leaders most Of whom are more bulllsh
than they just now care to declare
Their position Is that of expecting q
much higher future range OF prices "hl1e
holding but moderate lines of STOCKS II
therefore suits their purpose to nave me
market drift easily and even to coquette
with the bears" SO as to make al
6itioual purchases at lower prices They
are quite willing that tiInid people should
feel timOrous over the prospects or the
fan money market; they do not OBJECT
TO the warnings of the a!armists VINO see
danger in the political situations IN
France and Africa; they are quite to4er-
ant towards pessimistic estimates or the
crop outcome; all this suits their present
purpose, which is to buy stocks for a rise
when the surprising commercial move
ment now getting under Roadway reaches
its climax later in the fall markets.
1t is not easy to say how much longer
this speculative engineering of the mar
ket will be continued. 1t is not unlikely
that we may witness Yet a good deal OF
checking and restraining and throwing or
cold water upon outsiders: for there are
symptoms that the larger operators nave
vet to get & large amount Of stocks De
fore their wants have been satisfied; and
1t is rot at all impossible certain events
may take course which Will favor their
tactics War between England and the
Beers would produce a shock in London
which might make the New York market
Etagger and reel and would certainly DIS
courage outsiders and make them sellers
rather than buyers. Serious compllca-
lions in France-which under the phases
urCn which the DreyfUs trial has now
entered are only too possible-would have
q serious effect upon the European
bourses; to which New York could
affect Indifference; for it could not fail
10 aggravate the partial financial strain
which already exists here. Assuming,
therefore, that the market is to be held
under conservative control and not al
lowed to run wild on loose rein, it
would seem reasonable to expect that the
market Will be held under restraint until
these outside events have developed into
q finality OF one kind or another.
These foreign eventUalities, however,
can hardly be kept much longer in sus-
pHnse; ana, if the worst should happen
both In France and Africa, there is after
all sharp linit to the extent to which
their effects would continue adverse on
his market. London would socn recover
from its first fin; ncial shock, which would
contribute towards repair at the other
European certers; and then would come
Into play series of commercial recuper-
Btions on this side the Atlantic, which
ALWAYS occur as a second effect of for
eign wars. Whist, therefore, there are
external conditions which may be rea-
Eonab'Y expected TO hold the strong bull
is h tendencies of the local market in re-
Etraint for the immediate future, yet it
Is rot to be assumed that these condi-
Ions would largely counteract the ire
ressibie tendency towards ultimately
higher prices inherent IL the existing un-
precedented state of national prosperity.
1t IS IN necessary to recite the conditions
contributing to that great national
- boon" everybody knows the facts and
expects that they will carry the market
value of our investments to uneuualed
figures: but those who intend to invest
might be prudent in waiting until It has
beer demons rated how far prices are 10
be temporarily affected by these foreign
contingencies.
A word of caution seems desirable re-
garding the money market. We are con-
fronted with low bank reserves Just as
the annual crop requirements begin to
assert themselves; also when trade de-
mards promise to run beyond the usual
limits. 1t is true there are offsets to
those influences. chief of which is the
comparatively easy condition of the In
terror banks: but the probability is that
airy active bull speculation in stocks at
present would quickly be checked by
firmer rates and possible stringency In
money. 1t is quite certain that heavy
buying and a sharp advance in stocks
just now would prove an Irresistible
temptation to a bear raid and serious
attemnts to manipulate the money mar
ket. 1t Is not safe to say this would be-
done: vet the opportunity would proba-
bly, not be Overlooked If it came. Or
dinarily some relief would be expected
from gold imports. Our trade balance
continues favorable and foreign selling of
our stocks has abated; but Europe NAV
be very reluctant in parting with the
precious metal, and this would be dis
appointment. Money IS rapidly going
into the treasury; so that with trade
and crops demands to be supplied any
unusual drain on the banks would have
to be met by liquidation. This would eff
fcctuallI retarG any upward market in
stocks. Until there are indications of
return Of funds from the interior to New
York we shall continue to advise conserv-
alive operations in stocks. especially as
all the good dividend payers are now
pretty high. The market will really he
strengthened by a bridge over delay in
the bull move ent. AS a matter of fact.
fair Sethack iult now in nrices viii