The times., 1899-11-13
international Trouble brewing.

! international Trouble brewing.
In view Of the most recent political
I manifestations in Europe it may be tina.
I Lord salisbury's GuiIdhaH speech should
/ be read between the lines, in a certain
I connection. The British Premier evident
/ ly felt himself in a position to give his
countrymen strong assurance that no
! danger existed of European intervention
in South Africa; but he was silent, and
! perhaps significantly so, with regard to
movements which, if they did not immed
lately menace England's action or inter
! ests in that continent, might neverthe-
( less amount to hostility in other and more
| general directions.
The present is an epoch of rapid world
developments. Nothing ought to much
surprise US after the sudden revision of
the cosmic map caused by the Spanish
War, and it would seem, indeed, that we
should be prepared for other things quite
as important and possibly even more
/ startling. In short, there seems TO be
trouble brewing in the Old World which
I in the end might peTchance extend to
the New; who knows? It was noted as
a matter Of serious international import
that the Anglo German treaty, which bore
all the internal evidence of being a treaty
+ of alliance, was given to the public on the
/ day before the meeting of the Kaiser and
+ Car at Potsdam. Now, it is equally
worthy of notice that no sooner is that
] conference over than it is announced that
/ Russia proposes an immediate movement
on the Persian Gulf, by means Of a long
contemplated railway line from Turkes-
tan through Afghanistan and lower
/ Persia.
Under ordinary conditions it Is hardly
+ too much to say that this would mean
/ war Whether or not that VIII result,
in view OF the Transvaal handicap on
+ Great Britain, is another question. Per
/ haps its answer may depend upon how
far the understanding between the Lon
/ don and Berlin Cabinets extends. The as
sumption in anti British quarters in Eu-
/ rope is that the Kaiser is neither bound
nor inclined to thwart Russian ambitions
I in Persia, and that England would have to
stand alone against Russia in any attempt
to stop the latteT's progress toward the
Persian Gulf.
] A Russian military railway line through
/ Afghanistan would necessarily involve the
practical absorption of that barbaric State
+ by the Cars Government, and place Rus
/ sia actually on the frontier of India. That
! is something the British Empire could not
afford to brook if there were any way to
+ prevent it. Again. Russia would certainly
/ not be content with a mere foothold on the
Gulf that did not carry with it the King
dom of Persia as a hinterland. Once on
those waters, the presence OF the Muscovite
power would constitute a startling menace
TO Great Britain everywhere in her Eastern
1 possessions. Il is considered probable that
Lord Salisbury VIII address a vigorous note
/ OF protest 10 St. Petersburg within few
days and after that the situation should
develop fast.
There is some reason TO think that the
original Russian idea was to make stimuli
4 taneous demonstrations in Afghanistan
and Persia and in Manchuria and Korea
I especially in seizing Nieu- Chwang. Knowl-
/ edge that this move would be met by active
I concerted measures on the part Of England
I America, and Japan is understood to have
changed this part Of the programme. But,
/ even il Russia has abandoned the idea for
/ present purposes, 1t does not follow that
/ Oriental peace is thereby assured. Japan
+ is almost on the point Of going to war
+ with Russia, in order to establish herself
in Korea as a matter of vital necessity to
her growth and industrial future. Should
/ Russia secure control OF Korea and the
+ Sinking promontory, the chance for Japan
on the Asiatie mainland would be lost
4 forever, and rather than accept such fate
+ in advance it IS probable that the Mikado
would rather risk a defeat now
Here is where the opportunity for Eng
land may lie. II Russia insists upon ag-
/ gressions 10 Afgbanistan and so on, it
would not be difficult perhaps for the 9th
+ e- party 90 precipitate Russo-Japanese
. war. in which The British navy might par
Jicipste on the strength Of the casus beIIl
f furnished in the other direction
+ j is said that France thinks Of following
/ the lead Of her ally by making demands
upon China for large extension of her
/ Tonquin territory. Such a movement could
. -tvk AdAA 20 LldhE ILaALIlo worse as 10
would mean just so much more dcor-shut-
I ting on the ether commercial nations, and
might compel action on the part Of the
United States. Just where Germany would
f appear IN this complicated game cannot
( be definitely predicted; but it is at least
+ probable that the Kaiser would be found in
+ opposition to Russia and France. and in
i combination with England the United
/ States, and Japan, for the purposes Of any
trouble that might arise in or about the
! Chinese Empire.
From the foregoing it viii be realized
I that the most acute tension exists in Eu-
/ rope and the East, and that a spark from
any quarter might light "A blaze Of war.
+ That spark may be dropped by Russia in
Afghanistan, or by Japan in Korea The
opinion is strong that conditions promising
/ the long dreaded general debacIe were
never as favorable to its speedy occur
( renee as they are today.
Pigs Patriots.
+ Our sturdy Teutonic relatives in the Ger
nan Empire have a sense of humor quite