The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1899-05-08

| Made to Spain without the Me-
cessity of Exporting a Single
Dollar In Gold - Immediate Out
| look Is for Lower Stock Prices
on the New York Exchange.
NEW YORK, May 7.-(Special. Henry
| Clews weekly stock letter says: During
| the past week the course of the stock
market has been somewhat Irregular
| AT the opening some uncertainty was felt
as to the possible effect of the payment
| of the $40, 900 indemnity to Spain, as
nothing was certainly known about the
method in which that operation was to
! be effected; and this circumstance was
! turned to account by the bear opera
tors, with the result of fall of l to Z
! points in prices On Tuesday the plan OF
settlement became better understood
/ and, as 1t was seen to be free from all
! injurious bearing on the money market
securities at once recovered from the
| previous days decline, but have since
| eyinced a weak front and been compare
lively inactive for these exciting times
/ The payment of the indemnity has now
been contaminated in a perfectly easy
| way and without producing ripple OF
| disturbance in the loan market Under
| other circumstances, 1t might have called
Tor considerable export of gold and some
i doubt has been felt whether we should
wholly escape that result The balance
| of trade in our favor during the last two
| years has, however, been attended with
| the accumulation of an extraordinary
amount Of American funds In Europe on
| temporary loans. Those funds have, dur
ing late months. been drawn upon to a
considerable extent in payment for Sc
curities returned from abroad, and some
misgtvings have been felt whether the
amount remaining to our credit might
suffice to cover this operation. The
event has proved that a SUFFICIENT supply
| Of bills drawn chiefly against these funds
was procurable for wholly covering this
settlement and therefore no gold has
been exported. The payment has been
made wholly through an exchange of in
ternational credits, without the transfer
OF dollar in cash. AS the result of these
operations the treasury accounts show
an increase in Outstanding drafts and
checks from Sc, 1885, 1853 on April q, to S29,-
1888 on May 8, the increase of $23, 043 IA
having gone into the banks, while with
In the same time the treasury deposits
In the banks have been diminished by
only $48, III, with the understanding, how
ever, that those deposits shall be drawn
down at the rate of 81, 900, 0o00 per week
TO compensate for the reduction of the
actual cash balance in the treasury prop
er. Therefore the banks were about S2S-
00O,0O0 stronger In cash resources at the
end Of the indemnity settlement than they
were before, while the treasury was about
TO the same extent weaker
Whatever actual cash may reach Spain
In this settlement will probably be con-
tributed largely by Germany for that
country has been more than any other a.
debtor to the United States in the form
of the temporary loans which we have
turned to account as means of paying
the Indemnity. 1t is not unlikely, however
that Germany may be able to make ar
rangements indirectly with Spain that
will mitigate the Inconvenience of this
sudden demand for large liquidations in
cash. The ROthschilds are understood to
be connected with the European end of
the settlement; and that might easily
mean arrangements between the Bank Of
Spain and the German bank that would
be convenient to both parties
Thus, another bogy that has haunted
the money market and made some peo-
pie on the stock exchange uneasy, has
been removed from the haunts of spec
ulation. One of the effects of the COM
pletion of this operation will be, as above
indicated, to increase materially for
some time the cash resources of the
banks. 1t is true, the secretary Of the
treasury has expressed purpose to
gradually withdraw his deposits from
the national banks, as an offset for the
money lost in the indemnity settlement:
but those Withdrawals will probably be
more than offset by the excess of the
governments ordinary disbursements
over its receipts, which for last month
showed difference of $11.30O, 900; in
other words, the present drift of fiscal
affairs is in the direction of depicting the
treasury and filling the banks 1t there
fore seems safe to calculate. upon a.
more plethoric condition of the bank re-
serves, from this time on until the fall
than we have experienced within the last
four months
The main factor bearing upon the
stock market is the crop outlook, which
still remains uncertain. Winter wheat
estimates are still held in suspense and
though large falling off from last
years unequaled output is accepted as a
matter of course, yet no one ventures
upon definite figures of decrease. At the
same time, there are no trustworthy es-
Inmates on the acreage of spring wheat
though the expectation is general that
1t will surpass that of 1898 In dealing
with this question, however, one quite
important factor is overwhelmingly,
the large quantity of wheat now being
held in the hands of farmers for higher
prices. The following figures indicate
approximately what this item may
amount to:
Visible supply July 2, 1898, AGO, 900 bu:
In farmers hands. nominal crop of Unit
ed States, 1898, CTS, 1901 00 blu; total supply
of crop year, 689. 100, 900 bu; exports since
July 1, over 200,0 600 bu; home food con-
sumption for year, 320,010, 900 blu; used for
seeding. 100000 bu; loss by fire and wa
ter, 1850 0c0 bu; on hand May l. 1899, 49,
100000 bu; visible supply May l, 1885, 2S,-
100000 bu; in farmers hands May /, 1899,
81, 900, coo blu.
AT the end of the last crop year we
had virtually no stocks in farmers hands
and only 14,700, 600 bushels of visible sup
ply. At the present time, we have on
hand, after allowing for consumption of
the next two months. 112, 900 bushels,
of which Is, 200, 900 bushels appears in the
visible supply, while S4,0O0,000 bushels
constitutes an invisible supply in farm
ers' hands. 1t will thus be seen that we
may have a material falling off in the
next crop of winter wheat and yet a to-
! tai supply, of old and new crops on JULY
1st not nearly so much below that Of
last year as has been generally expected
At least, 1t may be regarded as an easy
possibility that the wheat supply of
1899 (winter and spring and cop and
stock carried over will more than
equal that of 1897 and far exceed the
average of preceding years.
The tendency of prices at the New
York stock exchange, for the moment,
appears in the direction of lower figures
We advise therefore for the coming week
Al n