The San Francisco call. [volume] (San Francisco [Calif.]) 1895-1913, 1899-08-27
JUGGLING WITH STATISTICS.

n URING his term of Office Chief of the
| Bureau OF Statistics OF the Treasury Depart
- ment Joseph Nimmo Jr. was instructed to In
vestigate the commercial aspects of the proposed
canal connecting the Atlantic with the Pacific and
compute the amount Of tonnage likely to pass through
such a waterway. His report highly encouraging
to the advocates OF the enterprise and did much to
bring about popular approval OF it. Since leaving
the office Mr. Nnmos services have been at the dis
posal OF the opponents Of the canal and he has now
very different set of figures show the result OF
his computations.
In the pamphlet recently issued and widely circu-
lated he attempts explanation Of the discrepancy
between what he said then and what he says now.
Referring to the computations made while Chief OF
the Bureau of Statistics he says:
The work was one OF considerable magnitude 1t
was begun in the month of February and completed
in the month of August, 1880 | reported possible
tonnage of 100000 tons per annum for any one OF
the proposed canals Since the year 1880 seven trans
continental lines and parts of lines have been
peted the facilities for transportation by rail have
been greatly increased, there has been enormous
development of transconnental traffic, and as al
ready shown rates have greatly fallen. In word,
the general trend OF the evolution OF transportation
facilities during the last twenty years has been in
the direction of reducing the possible tonnage Of any
American interoceanic canal. From computation
based upon all the controlling conditions OF the pres
ent day conclude that not than 100000 tons OF
shipping annually can be confidently expected to pass
through any such canal The receipts OF any Ameri-
can interoceanic canal from tolls would therefore be
insufficient to meet the expenses of its maintenance
and administration with nothing for interest cost
of construction, amounting probably to $1,000 900
year"
The passage is interesting illustration OF the
ease with which clever statsticans make their
computations suit their desires and argu-
ments for the object they wish to attain In 1880,
cording to Mr.. Nimmo the tonnage likely to pass
through either one OF the canals would have been over
100000 tons per annum, but now, alter nearly
twenty years OF increase in commerce. the tonnage
would not exceed 100000. The logic OF the argument
is that as commerce increases the demand for canal
decreases and the explanation OF the paradox is that
railroads are now doing the work that would have
been taken by the canal in former years.
1t requires no great ceverness any considerable
knowledge OF the statistics OF commerce to reute so
plain falacy The construction OF additional trans
continental railroads has led decrease in the
traffic of the old ones but has created additional
traffic Neither has the increase in railroads been fol-
lowed by decrease of tonnage afoat but has been
accompanied by an increase of such tonnage. In
creased facilities for commerce are always followed
by an increase of commerce itself.
Under the most favorable conditions it will require
at least ten years to complete canal either OF
the suggested interocean routes and Mr. Nmmo will
be very clever statiscian indeed if by any compu-
taton he can convince the American people the ton
mage passing through the canal at that time will be
less than it would have been twenty years ago.