New-York tribune., 1899-07-13
IRON SUPPLY AND DEMAND.

II is about time 10 express a doubt whether
the scarcity of pig iron is real. No one can deny
that quantities for sale are far below the de-
mand. Many people are in trouble for that rea-
son. and some fOundries and other concerns are
stopping for want Of the iron they need which
they could not get In time If they ordered IT, or
cannot buy. In that sense there is scarcity.
But the great steel making companies are not
stopping production. and have provided them
selves with material far ahead Of their require
.ments. II may be safely asserted that many
other concerns have done the same buying from
-four to six months ahead, IN part to guard
against prices being put up against them and
dn part TO make sure that prices shall be put up
against other people The quantity supplied was
mot quite equal TO consumption in May, and
whether II has equaled consumption in June II
was at any rate largely absorbed by a Yew big
buyers They have stocks for months ahead
and are comfortably protected, while others who
were less sagaciOus cannot get iron. Still II re-
mains an open question whether the orders now
being accepted call for consumption Of as much
iron as is produced.
The point Is that the great works are running
mainly on orders which cover their entire out
put for months ahead, in several lines 10 the end
,of the year. They have bought material ahead
of present needs as they should In sef-protec-
,tion. That has created present scarcity for
those who have not material enough to meet the
orders they have or wish 10 take But the ques-
tion whether orders are equal to the actual
,output Of the material is quite another matter.
AS these orders are offered to one large concern
rafter another. which cannot take them and
promise delivery within the required time they
probably are largely and certainly are to some
extent reported from different cities. All OF
them thus reported appear TO have exceeded the
known capacity OF the works capable Of filing
them. Nobody can tell how many Of them are
prompted by desire TO get contracts fixed before
q further possible advance occurs in prices OF
materials or Of finished products.
state of things like this usually ends with
rather surprising suddenness. AS old orders run
out and works begin to take such new orders as
are offered the many reported az different points
shrink to one and the multitude who have de
sired 10 anticipate advance in prices hold back.
md soon IL appears that the works having done
in six months all that was needed for year.
have for the next six months considerably less to
do Prices then operate powerfully to hold back
orders. because it is quickly perceived that the
turning point has been reached and that pro
ducers will soon be wanting consumers as much
as consumers have been wanting producers
Several such rapid changes have been recorded
and when any such reaction comes 1t Will he
found that the quantity Of iron required TO do n
years work In half year IL much larger than
the quantity required 10 do within another half
year its natural work.
Whether this change OF front is near or re-
mote cannot be determined by men outside the
business. and may perhaps be more than the
hest Informed men in the business can predict,
because they know only Of inquiries sent TO
Them with rising markets. but do not know Of
those received by others, nor how many 90 TO
several different works. nor how many would
he held back II prices should halt. After rise
of 100 per cent or more in some products a