The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1899-08-20
WAR-TAX PROPHECIEA
OmciaI Estimates Not Far from III
Mark in O Whole Years Busineaa.

OmciaI Estimates Not Far from the
Mark in q Whole Years Business.
From 1892 to 1897 the internal revenue re-
ceipts of the United States government dur
ing the fiscal years beginning on July l and
ending on June 30. fuctuated at nearly $780,
900, 900 a year. In the fiscal year OF 1898 the
unexpectedly large business Of the country.
consequent upon the restoration Of conf
dence and the revival Of security and busi-
ness Investments, sent the total up to $780,
900. 900. and 1t would probably have remained
at that figure, or gone higher, without the
imposition OF the special internal-revenue
taxes made necessary for payments arising
from the Cuban and Philippine wars. In his
last annual report submitted on Nov. 1,
1898, the Commissioner Of Internal Revenue,
Mr.. Scott. who has since been elected Unit
ed States Senator from West Virginia. made
this formal prophecy as to the probable col
lectons by the federal government from the
internal revenue taxes to July this year:
81 am Of the opinion that in any estimate
great weight should be given to such reduc-
ton In the receipts as may be reasonably
anticipated during the remaining nine
months of the current fiscal year. In view
of these conditions, do not deem 1t wise
to Ak the estimate for the receipts from
all sources OF internal revenue for the fiscal
year ending June 80. 1899, higher than $27o.-
COO 900"
This estimate, made despite many difn-
culties In the way of q successful computa-
ton, has turned out to be almost exactly
correct for the complete receipts OF the
Internal Revenue Department up to June
80 were 27S.4845s2 The additional war
taxes were 1902 900, among the largest
items being the revenue from stamps, which
furnished $3S 600. 900; the additional d"ties
on beer and ale furnished 1000 900; on
tobacco $4,000 900. and on whiskey and
other spirits S6.00O,000.
The prophecies OF the Treasury officials
were as conspicuously correct as the pro-
phecies Of many individuals as to these
taxes we're In error. 1t was said. for In
stance, that these taxes would prove not
only oppressive and burdensome. but most
unpopular as we'll. On the contrary, they
have worked so we'll that 1t Is now generally
agreed that the next Congress will retain
them. 1t was said that the inevitable eff
feet Of new taxes on whiskey, beer. and ci-
CARS, as we'll as on patent medicines would
reduce the product OF these In all cases,
and would, at the same time, lead to q de-
cline in the quality Of such products No
thing of the kind has been observed as re-
sulting from the imposition of the internal
revenue taxes. It was said that these do
nestle taxes. imposed on various articles Of
American manufacture, would, by adding to
their price for export. decrease the foreign
market for such Of them were sent
abroad. Nothing of this kind has occurred
either On the contrary, the foreign market
for American manufactured goods OF all
kinds is larger this year than IL has ever
been before.
All political economists ate agreed that
taxes fall lightly when times are good,
Guinness IL prosperous. and the demand for
labor IL extensive, whereas taxes, however
light nominally. Beom oppressive when the
means OF meeting them arc few or uncer-
tain. Il is this fact which gives the ex-
plAnation required, perhaps for the errors
in prophecies Of those who were apprehen-
sive Of the workings Of the present inter-
nai-revsnus h Law.