The evening times., 1899-09-19
TUESDAY. SEPTEMBER 10, 1899
Inst BEFORE the Hattie.

The South African situation today is re-
markable principally for the many minor
phenomena, which always mark the days
Immediately preceding serious outbreak
of hostiliues between two neignboTing
states. Friends of peace are making sen
timental appeals to British philanthropy to
check the policy OF aggression against &
weak little republic; but apparently to
small purpose. Perhaps such efforts might
have better chance of success if the weak
ling in question did not act as if it ex-
pected to drive the British into the sea.
The st. James Gazette frankly justi-
fes our view of imperial patience, in say
ing that unless the Beers take the often
siye, the negotiations viii be prolonged un-
til the re-enforcements now on their way
TO South Africa reach their destination 4"
Then The trouble will be brought TO a
head at once. We rather look for earlier
action. The Transvaal authorities already
have a considerable force of artillery and
some light cavalry. along the Buffalo River
within striking distance of Laings Neck.
The reported forwarding of large guam
AAAs VI O-llltSStN lOAdese lO6 d1 ludL 10
cality, is highly indicative of determine
tion to strike before the other side is ready
TO take the field. And the war Office in
London is well aware that this menace is a
serious one.
In Pretoria il is doubtless realized that
the minimum OF what Great Britain will
exact from the South African RepubIc by
fOrca on tho aclrpouIadead fa;,,,.o II A.
lomacy, is contained in the Milner de-
n1ands That being assumed, the alterna-
tive is war or surrender. If the Beers are
determined, regardless of consequences To
resist suzerainty. the fve-year franchise.
reasonable Outlander rep escntation in tn ,
Nolksrdad, and the abolition of the dyna-
mite monopoly, that means a fight and the
sooner it can be precipitated the better
At least, we fancy that Kruger, Joubert.
and the Boer executive council must think
so.
There are several considerations in favor
of their taking the initiative. Their enemy
is yet in small force, scattered, and gener-
ally unprepared. A sudden movement jnfo
Natal at this time would probably compel a
bTlliS1 ISlI6dA OA 4(OI Ddlls anu place the
burghers in control of the towns near the
frontier. That would be sure to appear
10 the Afrikanders of Cape Colony and the
Orange Free State as evidence of Boer su-
periority, and would almost certainly lead
TO a general rising of the Dutch element
throughout South Africa.
Again, it may occur to Kruger that if he
can gain a few small victories before the ar
rival of British re-enforcements, the moral
effect would be great upon public opinion
in England. He may think that the pros
pect Of a long, bloody, and costly cam
paign would appeal strongly to the insular
pocket and open the way for an early
peace settlement on more favorable terms
than are in sight now. The idea appears
10 be rampant in the Transyaal that the
sordid view is the only one Of which the
people of the United Kingdom are capable,
and that no higher or other consideration
will affect them, even after the beginning
of active hostilities.
That view, of course, is incorrect The
British taxpayer naturally prefers peace 20
war and his influence is always strong in
the former direction. Nevertheless, in the
last ANALYSIS he is as good a crossbow man
as he was at Crecy, and the fighting blood
of Norman William. English Harold, and
Caradoc the Britain, is mixed and liable
to boil in him quite as it has en- former oc-
casions. He may count his gains to know
his pence" until the last; but the last
comes with blow direct at his trade, his
soldiers, or his flag. In other words, the
peace party would disappear like a feeting
vision the moment armed Beers moved
over the border, and nothing thereafter
would appease John Bull but the complete
subjugation and absorption of the South
African Republic.