Evening times-Republican. [volume] (Marshalltown, Iowa) 1890-1923, 1899-08-07
4 GRATIFYING OUTLOOK
Clovis Review Of the Worlds Pro.
duction- Corn, Wheat and Cot.
ton In Abundance.
Active Industrial Conditions Based
On Legitimate Demand, Not on
Speculative Conditions.
Prosperous Railroads Show That
Earning Capacity is Now Be.
yond Experimental Stage.

New York, Aug. 6.-The week mas
been more or less a quiet one In Wall
street Men influential In financial af-
fairs are abroad, at the seashore or In
the mountains, enjoying their prosper
ity and calculating upon returning to
a season Of greater activity during the
fall months. Let US consider how far
such expectations are justified.
BY common consent the course Of the,
market has for years been mainly in
fluenced at this season by crop condi-
tions.s It is altogether too early yet to
form any positive opinions as to the
final yield Of the principal crops but Of
wheat. corn and cotton there Ia every
prospect of suff1ciency to meet our
own and foreign requirements. Wheat
has been the chief subject Of anxiety,
because of early injuries both at home
and abroad. The most conservative es-
inmates indicate a yield this year of not
less than 56O0O0,00o bushels, possibly
more, compared with 675,000,00O last
year. In view, however. of the surplus
left over from previous crop, 1t is ex-
pected that we shall have available for
export at least 200,0O0000 bushels
against 22200O.0OO bushels last year.
which was next to the largest year of
wheat exports in our history. 1t ID
questionable, therefore. if a larger
wheat crop would be an advantage;
for there is no prospect of serious
scarcity in the worlds supply, and
second bumper crop might be disas-
trous to farmers If low prices followed.
AS to corn, much depends upon the
next few weeks; the present outlook
being for a crop of over 2.000,000.00O
bushels compared with 1,924,0OO,000
bushels in 1898. Cotton. according to
an average estimate, promises crop
of 11A million bales, or about the same
as last year. Thus, while the crop sit
uation affords no basis OF extravagant
expectations, it certainly promises the
farmers over large section OF the
country results above the average, par
ticularly when the better prices now
realized are taken into consideration.
We are at least sure of great foreign
demand for our wheat for the second
year in succession. This is all that can
be said Of the agricultural situation.
Now let us look at Industrial condi-
tions. Sufficient consideration has not
been accorded the fact that the United
States is more under the influence Of
Industrial affairs than ever before. For
years 1T has been the custom of mer-
chants and bankers to formulate their
plans upon the prospects and results of
agriculture. Without in any degree
wishing to underrate the Importance of
the latter, it is necessary to keep in
sight the wonderful march of industry.
We are rapidly passing from an agri-
cultural into a manufacturing popula-
ton. In 1850 there were 100000 per-
sons employed in agriculture and 3.400,-
00a in manufacturing. In 1890 the to-
tails were 100000 and 100000 respec-
lively During this ten years the in
crease in entire population, according
to the census, was % per cent; the in
crease in agricultural employments be-
ing only 10 per cent while that in man
ufacturing was nearly SO per cent. The
next census will certainly show a very
much larger development of industry.
Figures could be added showing that
agriculture has little more than held
its own during the past ten or twenty
years, while the mineral and manufac-
turing Industries have doubled and
quadrupled their output many times
over during the same period. The OBJ
ject of these remarks is to impress upon
the reader the Importance of the indus
trial boom" which the country is now
experiencing, and which has never been
approached. It far outweighs in impor-
stance In the sum total Of prosperity any
Increased benefits that the agricultural
situation is likely to offer. In the iron
trade and It's various branches extra
sordinary conditions prevail. Furnaces
and mills are running to their utmost
capacity: high prices fail to check de-
aInand; large advances have been made
Iin wages: the demand Is legitimate, not
speculative. and is expected to continue
for another year at least. Export or
ders are frequently refused to satisfy
home demands. The textile trades are
sharing the improvement: cotton mill
building in the south is progressing at
an extraordinary rate; and throughput
the whole country the wheels of in
dustry are humming at rate never be-
fore experienced.
The effect of such conditions upon
the security market can easily be de-
.-termined. 1t may be said that prices
are already high enough that prosper
ity has been amply discounted, etc.
e This Is partly true; yet no serious eff
forts for materially lower prices can
be successful while these conditions
continue; and, If prolonged, they will
Inevitably develop a speculative spirit
which SO far has been conspcuously
absent. There Is more danger of losses
from future speculative excuses than
from declining market now. The IN
dustrial shares are likely to receive
much support, regardless of their merit.
Whether the attempt to distribute them
among the public will succeed or not no
one can predict.
The most substantial feature in the
stock market Is the railroad depart
ment. These securities have been tried;
their earning capacity is beyond the
experimental stage; and present pros
perity. especially of those running
through the grain and and manufacture
ing districts, promises continual large
' earnings for some time to come. There
is one element of caution in the mar
ket. and that is money Firm rates
seem probable, a result of good times,
not fear or adversely. Lenders are
looking forward to per cent mar
ket. The probabilities of a squeeze are
not seriously discussed; but they are
sufficiently possible to act as a whole
some restraint upon speculation. A drop
in exchange exerted a favorable effect