The Saint Paul globe., 1899-04-03
ADVANCE in PRICES
TO BE EXPECTED IN THE STOCK
MARKET, ACCORDING TO
HENRY CLEWS
RAILROAD SHARES FAVORITES

This 81 DEVELOPMENT of the Week in
Spccuintion and Regarded as "a
Favorable Symptom - Little
Manipulation of Cash Rates This
Year for the April settlement
Money Scare Is About Over.
NEW YORK, April 2.-(Special)-Hen-
ry Clews in his stock letter says:
Speculation developed some new feat
ures. While the industrials seem to have
lost none of their attractiveness to the
more adventurous operators and have
proved money makers to the majority
thus far, attention has again been di-
Verted to the better class of railroad
shares. This is good symptom. The
grangers have been advanced on talk
of refunding plans that would inevitably
enhance the value of their shares; the
coalers rose on the practical assurance
of harmonious working without the OBJ
jectionable methods of consolidation; and
the Vanderbilt properties We're stimulated
by rumors of consolidation with trans
continental lines which, though having
little foundation. served as a peg on
which to manipulate values. The clique
leaders supported their specialties most
valiantly Their followers have made
handsome gains. Just how far the pres
ent mastery influences will carry the
market cannot be safely predicted; but
Ehe speculative spirit is thoroughly
aroused and is not likely TO be satisfied
by ordinary gains or efTectualiy checked
10y ordinary setbackS.
Easy money and the difficulty of finding
profitable employment for funds will be
u powerful bull factor in the stock mar
iket after the crop money returns. AS
fhe better class securities rise to a 31a,
& and AZ per cent basis, the next best
shares and bonds many of which have
.,een strengthened in position by business
Improvement but neglected, will come
into activity. The trade combination
iriania is likely to contribute to the ease
of money. for the reason that many of
5hem are carrying such large balances
and making good profits that they are
not borrowers, and not likely to be until
these funds are distributed as dividends.
When money settles down to permanent
ly higher rates. then we may look for a
declining stock market but that con-
tngency is not yet in sight.
The close of March usually witnesses
considerable manipulation of the money
rates, owing to April settlements This
wear there has been less than usual, and
the money market would in all proba abil
tty Rave experienced no disturbance had
1t not been for the financing of Central
Pacific and number of important indus
trial deals which temporarily took out
important sums. Foreign exchange has
been firm. and some disposition was
shown to anticipate the Philippine pay
ment to Spain, though, as a matter Of
fact. this is likely to have very little
effect here as the transaction will be
conducted with as little arrangement as
possible.
Spring usually witnesses a rising mar
ket. Something gets into the blood and
temper of men which leads them to new
ventures and fits of optimism. Trade be-
comes more active: traffic expands, and
hopeful expectations usually predominate
This year such ideas are if anything more
prevalent than usual In April many in
fiuential absenteeS return from the South
1nvigorated by a period of recuperation;
and this is not a small factor. The most
substantial foundation, however, for a
bull market is the continuance of large
railroad earnings 1t must be remem-
bered that gains now compare with large
figures of year ago, SO that present re-
suits are the more satisfactory. Net earn
ings cannot be expected to show CORE
spending gains; many of the roads being
obliged TO meet large outlays for new
equipment, etc, which later on will bene-
fit shareholders. i.-t
AS to the future of the market we ex-
pect advancing prices within the next
sixty days. Violent fluctuations will prob
ably occur, wiping out small margins; for
the inducements to realize profits con-
stantly increase, and stocks are much less
concentrated than six months ago. The
first advance was naturally much more
substantial in character than those which
follow. The public is now in the market,
and having made money is In too strong a
position TO be bullied out of it's holdings
by any ordinary attack. This state of
affairs. of course, cannot last indefinitely;
speculation will inevitably be carried to
excess, and severe reactions follow but
nothing of this sort is at present in sight.
Those who buy cautiously at favorable
opportunities backed by strong margins
will be on the winning side. The year 1895
will surpass 1898 as a bull year; but
squalls are much more likely to be ex-
perienced now than then; and small craft
must be we'll ballasted and kept out of
dangerous waters.
Stocks that are not actually rapid tran
sit properties have tried to be rapid tran
sit in their advance movement during the
week as to keep pace with the rapid
transit leaders. This especially applies to
Northwestern and New York Central
Their recent advance was certainly
rapid transit one.
The end of the money scare has now
about been reached Whatever has been
required for the April settlements has
been taken from the New York banks.
Much of the amount lost thereby has
been made up by the funds from neigh
boring cities to be loaned out in Wall
street on time. While the New York
banks may not accumulate funds in the
next ten days, they are not likely to be
drawn upon for any more from the out
of-tOwn points. After the middle of the
month the crop-moving money will COM
mence to come back very rapidly, so that
money will become plethoric for the en-
tire summer and speculation will be ma
terially encouraged thereby. I look to
see a very active stock market from this
time onward, and some stocks are liable
to reach prices that may look ridiculously
high, based not much upon their divi-
dend quality as upon their equity valua-
ton.