The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1899-10-26
THE COTTON OUTLOOK.

The H10uSt0n CIeXaS) P0St, one Oh the
hest of Southern newspapers, takes the
position that cotton has reached fig
IRE which may be as high as it will go.
: We quote:
'Middling cotton is now bringing {
cents throughout the South, and the
takings by Northern and Southern spin
ners have been far ahead of last year s
purchases, while foreign exports have al
SO been in excess of the record for the
first seven weeks of last season. The
cotton trade is NOW impressed with the
idea that the American yield can hard
~ exceed 100000 bales, while compe-
tent authorities predict that the con-
Sunptive requirements will reach TO-
100000. For every bale that the yield
is below ten millions, and for every bale
that the spinners take in excess of TO-
1000, just so much will the position
of Gotten be strengthened. If the crop,
for instance, should only he 100000.
and if the enormous demand for cotton
goods throughout the world should
cause the spinning of 11,000000 bales,
there would be a reduction of /, 100000
in the big supply left over from previous
years. This would mean the beginning
OF a new season, with only 100000
bales surplus. much of which would con-
s;st of undesirable grades-the odds and
ends of old crops.
1T should be borne in mind, however,
that this is estimating the yield at very
low figures, and the prospective con-
sumption at by far the largest yet pre-
dicted. Should the yield be 100000 bales
greater than this, and the consumption
100000 less, there would be a supply of
2.550,000 at the beginning of next sea-
son. That is over a million bales more
than the world had on hand at the open
ing of the 1S97-9S commercial year.
"These are statistical facts, and a con-
sentative consideration of these figures
would impress one that there is no dam
ger of cotton famine this year. The
price is now over cents a pound higher
than it was at this time last year, and
He above quotations prevailing the lat
ter part of October 1897. There has
been good advance and the farmer has
profited thereby. Perhaps even higher
prices will be realized and it is possible
that the Scent values predicted by many
persons win be seen. Caution and con-
servatism are now necessary, however.
ANY further advance will be wholly spec.
ulative. 1t is all speculation, anyway,
for no one can yet reach any definite
conclusion as to the yield, nor do we
know how many bales will he consumed
If it is true, as mlany people contend.
that the crop will not be over 100000
bales. then there is every reason to ex-
pect further advance, for it would be
based on legitimate conditions.
Mr.. O. b. Stevens, Commissioner of
Agriculture, of Georgia, believes that
cotton viii go to eight cents.
After a careful investigation and cor
respondence from the cotton-producing
sections Mr.. Stevens has reached the con-
cIusion that the crop of the United States
will not exceed 100000 or 100000
bales. He introduces many figures and
facts in support of his conclusions, the
principal reasons being the light yield III
many sections and a decreased acreage
of / .422. 900 acres Under these condi-
tions. Mr.. Stevens says, cotton should
bring or cents per pound by Janua-
ry 1. He does not advise the farmers
to hold their cotton, to the hurt of the
merchants and banks who accommodated
them. nor does he advise them to hold
mt all. but the indications are all favor
able to better prices. Go to the people
you owe says Mr.. Stevens, and con-
suit with them, as their interests are
yours. Make such arrangements as will
help you am dnot embarrass them"
The convention of cotton growers of
the Southern States, which meets in At
lanta this week, ought to be able to give
the farmers the correct advice.