The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1899-08-29
THE SIZE OF THE COTTON CROP.


million bale crop. His estimate was
widely published ana the cotton market
dropped in price on the strength of his
expert opinion In predicting such
big crop Mr.. Neil over-reached himself,
and as soon as reports came in from the
cotton States, the price of cotton went
I up.
This year we have planted 21,000000
acres in cotton. The average yield is
39-1OO bales to the acre. This would
make the crop $3.50, AGO. The largest
average yield to the acre ever known
was 51-100. If this year the cotton crop
should be the largest per acre, the total
crop would be 1871, 900 bales. Mr..
Neill's prediction of 100000 bales
seems to be absurd Mr.. George w.
TRUTHS prediction of 9,125,000 bales
minimum and 10,500,000 maximum.
seems at this time much safer than Mr..
Neills.
The Atlanta Journal, after commenting
on the Neill estimate, gives its own opin-
ion based upon the following reasoning
which seems sound:
1.-The decreased acreage is conserva-
lively estimated at 3 per cent. The
Government estimate was 8 per cent.
There is also considerable decrease
in the use of fertilizers.
"A third item that affects the crop is
the Texas flood, the effect of which is
variously estimated at 100000 to 215,-
600 bales reduction.
IF we take Mr.. Neill's vast possible
ties to mean 100000 bales, the de-
duction for acreage would leave IL, 40O,-
900 bales. If we take from that 100000
bales for the Texas flood and 100000 for
subsequent deterioration we have IL
100000 bales instead of 100000 as
a fair Interpretation Of Mr.. NeilPs esti-
mate.
but even this Interpretation takes no
account of the decreased use of fertili-
zers, which is an unquestioned fact that
must have some effect on the yield.
1T also estimates this years crop on
basis of productiyeness above even the
unprecedented yield of last year, which
was estimated at 40 per cent. of bale
per acre. If that ratio of production
were applied to this years acreage we
should have a crop 5 per cent. smaller
than the oAe of 1889. which is esti-
mated at 100000 to 100000. In
other words the same yield per acre as
that of last year would give us, upon
the best estimate of acreage, a crop of
10,S30,0O0 bales; or allowing 100000
bales for the Texas flood, a crop of about
ten and three quarter millions.
But it would be surprising to see such
yield as that of 1889 The average
of rs years is 80 per cent. of bale to
the Acre and the yield of 40 per cent.
was never realized before last year. 1t
is not likely to be duplicated in a season
of severe drought in many sections and
with largely reduced fertilization. We
think therefore, that even 10,750000
bales is a large estimate, and judging
by recent events the market is of the
same opinion.
''To produce 100000 bales the cot
ton States must yield 50 per cent. of a
bale per acre. which is fully 30 per cent.
above he average yield of Is years
Speaking of Mr.. Neill's estimate, the
President of the New Orleans Cotton
Exchange, says:
Il don't see how Mr.. Neill or any other
man can pretend to say this early in the
year what the crop will be.
Il have known careful estimates made
as late in the season as November to be
wrong by as big margin as 100000
bales. The possibilities of the crop
when all conditions are favorable are
almost infinite, but account must be
tnl- nf n i,;Y
temperature and other things likely TO
hurt the crop. 1t is hard TO say just
what result Mr. Neilrs report had en-
the market. Liverpool opened i points
lower, but whether that is to be attribu-
ted to Mr.. Neil's report or other causes
| don't know. 1t lis probably a fact,
though, that as muo,l or more reliance
is placed in Mr.. Neill's forecast in Liver
pool than anywhere else. English opera
tors seem to have great confidence in
him. In my opinion it is much tee early
to hazard an opinion as to how large
the crop will be this year"
After quoting the above the Atlanta
Constitution says:
while there has thus sprung ~
difference of opinion among the cotton
spectators as to what the outcome will
be, it does not remove the position al
ready taken by the COnsttution--tnat it
is to their interest to boom up the esti-
mated yield in advance SO as to bear
down the price of cotton while il is yet
in the hands of the producer so that
the true margin later on will be but a
playground upon which the Spectator
can operate, while his victim is making
fertilizer contracts for another year
With these differences of opinion. but
unity of interest, the people of the
South can only have the consolation Of
knowing that they are but lambs in the
slaughter pit. There is but one discus
sion which can be profitable 10 us, and
that is to devise means of escape.
'As it is, we are the victims Of the
cotton Spectator while orr crop is
being garnered, as well as OF the manu-
facturer after it has been marketed.
Out of a possible S30,000,000 crop IN
Georgia, for instance, according to that
eminent authority, Mr.. ID. A. Tompkins,
it grows into a value of $1S4, 100000 i'll
the hands of foreign manufacturers.
Even the original figure of $4,000 900
for the raw material is subject to a
naripp of 81 000O00 to So 600 900 in