Evening star., 1899-03-01

Future Spanish Cabinet Expected to
Have 1t Ratified.

The resignation of the Sagasta cabinet in
Spain had the effect to direct the attention
of the State Department officials to the
probable result of this action on the pend
ing peace treaty. The general opinion is
that Sagasta's move does not necessarily
involve the failure of this convention,
ranged after so much trouble on both sides.
II is believed that the succeeding cabinet
will find means to forward the treaty to
the point of ratification, and that the oppo-
sition to the government will express itself
as content with the manifestation of dis
approval of what has been involved in fore
ing the cabinet to resign.
The reason for this belief is that the
Spanish government has much more to
lose by the failure of the treaty of Paris
than has the United States. In fact it is
rather a doubtful question. leaving aside
the desire OF our people to be regular and
correct in all attitudes, whether our gov
ernment would not actually profit by the
loss of the treaty, provided this loss could
be charged to the action of the Spanish
government, as would be the case if the
cortes refused to ratify it.
Would Gain If Treaty Failed,
For the United States would certainly re-
fuse to surrender the Philippines; that can
be stated on the highest authority, and, on
the other hand, would be relieved from the
ernment s2D,U00,oUO on account of the ces-
sion of the islands. Cuba would retain her
present status, and all that would be lack
ing would be a recognition by the Spanish
government of the legality of that status,
But that lack would not be of serious mo-
ment, judging from the fact that the Span
lsh-Amerlcan republics managed to get
along without trouble for quarter of a
century after the revolutionists therein had
driven the last of the Spanish troops out
of the country. without the formal admis-
sion by Spain that they had achieved their
independence.
In case the treaty should fail there would
also be continuation of the state of nom
intercourse automatically that has existed
since the outbreak of the war; technically
the two countries would be still at war
though this would practically be but a legal
fiction Even this state of affairs though
really embarrassing in some respects
would not prevent trade between the United
States and Spain. In fact, trade has all
ready been resumed and although the
United States is under the necessity of pay
ing larger duties upon imports into Spain
than countries favored with the minimum
tariffs, still the Spaniards are glad to buy
our wheat and flour and cotton and other
great staples and to pay themselves the ad-
ditiOnal duties.
Nothing More Than Delay Expected
However. as already stated, the officials
here do not believe that the Spaniards will
go to the extreme of defeating the treaty.
and probably the worst that can happen
will be delay in the exchange of ratifica-
tions, These should be exchanged on or
before the 10th of June, which date is six
months from the date of signature of the
treaty in Paris. Should the time limit ex-
pire through the internal troubles in Spain
without the exchange having been made. it
Is still possible for the two governments
those Of the United States and of Spain-to
arrange through the French government
which has been serving all along as an IN
tefmediary in their relations, for an ex-
change on a later date, and this too with
out disturbing the articles of the treaty at
other points. Should the Spanish govern
rnent undertake, however, to reopen the ne
gotiatiunS in the effort to Secure another
treaty more favorable in terms, and espe-
Cially aS To the cession of the Philippines,
than the pending treaty, ii Will certainly be
doomed to disappointment, for il is said
here that if these existing terms are with
drawn those to follow will be even harder
for Spain to bear.