New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1899-07-22

can satisfactorily be traced are tnose OF aitefeu
age and sex distribution. No argument is neces-
| sarv 10 show that a population containing either
an unusual proportion OF infants or Of very old
persons will be subject a higher death rate than
one not so characterized An estimate OF the prob
able number OF survivors on June l. 1900. OF those
| white persons OF domestic nativity who were enum-
Grated In the Eleventh Census based upon the prin-
ciple lust enunciated. indicates that they will ag-
gregate approximately. 409l2l2, thus allowing Tor
death rate OF 1OS per 1000 during the present
| decade The use OF significant figures in the con-
Guiding periods these estimates does not indicate
belief that they will be found to agree with the
| results Of the enumeration or In any way relate
to the margin of error considered probable. THESE
figures are merely arithmetical results, and are
supposed be more likely to be correct or likely
to be more nearly correct. than those winch would
result from any arbitrary alterations
AN UNFORTUNATE CHANGE IN AGE STA
TISTICs.
The present is as good a place as any TO direct
attention to the unfortunate change in the inquiry
! concerning ages which throws doubt upon the
compatibility OF the statistics OF ages In the Tenth
! and Eleventh The census schedule OF
| 1880 followed the custom OF previous censuses and
inquired concerning the "age at last birthday" Of
each of those enumerated. In 1880 this was changed
TO "age at nearest birthday" Specifically con-
sdered. the latter form Of the question appears
! more scientific, but that 1t is so is more than
doubtful. Inquiries in census schedules should be
framed with regard 10 the personal cndrdcterlStcS
of those who to supply and those who are to
collect the information desired 1t is probable that
without regard to the form OF the inquiry upon the
schedule. and In spite Of the most explicit instruc-
lions. most enumerators will inquire simply for the
"age" Of each individual ard that many adults
would report their ages in the same manner, no
matter how the inquiry addressed TO them was
! phrased. No correction on this account has been
seems sufficiently indicated desirable.
The next step toward complete estlmate Is to
] her Of u
under ten years Of age who will be found at the
! tute numerically important element Of the popu-
lation at any time, and in 1880 represented 203
! cent Of the total number enumerated Some Of the
native white children to be enumerated in 1900 will
/ have native mothers. all of whom must have been
mothers either enumerated in the Eleventh Census
or to be found among the female immigrants who
1880 there were T. sSs white children Of domestic
native parents and S735,25i as having foreign born
parents 1t should be remarked that the latter
foreign-born parent and that some Of the latter
were fathers the former number does not include
born during the decade Of native white women.
The discrepancy Is; however believed to be insig-
y the b e ESQ there H.
ages of six and forty three. inclusive among whom
must be found practically all Of the mothers Of the
years later This means that for every TOO females
OF TINS class there were born during the decade
Ing those who failed to survive until the census,
Wee s IN on b hst dae AS there there, ths
OF the native white children OF domestic parentage
ne application of this ratio would indicate that
this class Of the population will aggregate II 7o2
are Controlled very yee eecvey by ese ds
button and 1t is obvious that those at or near the
potential mothers cannot have contributed
to as birth rats those In Of the
this class In the more fertile ages existed in 1890
higher percentage of children, during the present
decade. Due allowance has been made for this
change IN estimating the white children OF native
iI,S62l7S III ''''''''''''
WHITE CHILDREN OF FOREIGN PARENTS
The native white children Of foreign parentage
enumerated in 1890 3,7S525 in number, and
were the children Of 1901 $40 females Of from sixteen
to forty-three of age. enumerated In the eev
enth census, and OF 2.O4O702 females. who immi-
grated between 1880 and 1890 The number of for
eign white women within the same ages in 1890 was
256450. and 1880 female immigrants arrived be-
year 1898 The number Of potential mothers of this
Sa OF ehiidren OF lSO Vas Ss 81 and Tor
male immigrants for the remaining two years of
ss s decade ice as rs CO., the potential mothers number
Distribution and length OF residence In the United
enumerated. the number OF white children Of for
eign parentage indicated for the year 1900 is 40SsS7
population Of $500 and the apparent rates Of death
and birth between 1880 and 1890 OF that class Of
about 635 iSS coored persons. Of whom 26223O will
be children under years of age. In these esti-
1890 is assumed to be Of domestic nativity and i'm
migration is not considered AS the total includes
chinese, japanese etc. there Is possible error,
which is however believed to be negligible. To
treat II otherwise would materially complicate the
calculation without securing any commensurate adj
vantage in probability OF accuracy.
of the ma tiveborn popuato on and there remains
only that portion consisting Of foregn-born persons
who VIII have done so by June, 1900 The OF
1880 enumerated 6559,679 persons OF foreign birth:
Immigrants arrived in the United States It will be
safe to treat all OF the latter having arrived be-
nearly all in the Prime Of life and Strength and
Of 1850 R in as to
cate low death rate, there being practically no in
them; yet the census OF 1890 found but s12S67 ndi
ylduas OF foreign birth. This. treating re-emi,
indicate a death rate, from the beginning of the
decade or from date Of arrival in this country to
That, this is largely, in excess of the fact seems
doubt ana the d6 OF the data is
which seems most plausible is that large number
on 1850 81 The inc
centivee 10 Instrumentation OF this character
in certain sections OF the country where the char
acterlstcs OF original nationality frequently
birth the uniikehood Of detection is EVIDENT. II
this was done in 1890 It was probably done in 1880
The estimate Of foreign population for the latter
year is to be understood as applying to the number
that will be discovered and enumerated as such,
and not 10 the total number In the United States.
This doubtless qualities the data and esti-
mates for the native white population the latter
being excessive by the number OF foreigners i'm
properly enumerated or estimated.
CONCEALMENT OF FOREIGN BIRTH
AS the tendency to absorption into the class emu
merated OF native birth appears TO have been
greater in connection with foreign than with
foreign women. probably account OF the political
privileges legally and customarily attaching to
domestic nativity and the desire avoid the delay
and irksomeness Of the process OF naturalization IL
has seemed necessary separately estimate the
numbers Of foreigners Of the different Care
full allowance for this element OF variation. as we'll
ago distribution result ed in esrirnara