The times. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1897-1901, 1899-01-22
HUMPHREYS

matter how many miles high it may b..
and the most optimistic now realize that
the stock market is nearing the point
where q break of some magnitude cannot
be avoided. The only question is how
many days or weeks is this moment away
And the very most conservative answer
to this is that there is not cloud in the
sky. Speculation is tremendous but there
is a sanity about it that is most convinc-
ing. The public has apparently and most
surprisingly learned good many lessons
of caution and good judgment that no bull
movement before ever taught it, So far,
! though the buying has been by the mil
lion shares day; it has been largely of
such stocks as the grangers, Penusyl-
vania. New York Central and the OTHER
gilt-edged securities that pay dividends
and have a position assured ''as Gov
eminent bonds" The industrials and
other dubious stocks have been left alone.
There can be no question that this is a
most potent element of strength. Other
conditions are as reassuring; money is
cheap and it seems likely to remain so for
months to come; earnings continue to in
crease rapidly, TO surpass records; every
where there is the note of prosperity. 1t
is undeniably the fact that the advance
may continue for weeks. 1t may h, said
conservatively even that many believe it
Will. Some are of the opinion that there
will be no recessions of more than point
or two until the summer months.
The bank statement given out near the
close of business yesterday came in the
way of an answer to many of the ques-
tions of the timdi 1t can be regarded in
no other way than as one of the best ever
given out. Deposits have increased during
the week over 1900, 900 and reserves are
Cratifyngly increased. Loans show only
a moderate increase. which indicates
clearly that there is no sinister over-bor-
rowing as yet. The figures follow: Re
serves increased S6,i30,000, specie increas-
ed SSSS 800. legals increased 1858 200, de-
posits increased S13, 26S. 400, loans increased
So, 505, 500 circulation decreased $16S 500.
The advance in New York Central during
two days must be accorded the first posi-
ton among the features of the market.
though movements very like it in the
other Vanderbilt stocks. caused BY the
same piece of news or alleged news, were
quite as interesting. Central was on Fri
day at l2I. high price for this movement
up to that time. In less than three mar
ket hours from that time. or at about, II
O'Clock yesterday. the stock had reached
$40, an advance Of 10 points. This stock
now receives 4 per cent dividends, and
thus pays to the investor at this price less
than per cent on his money. The Union
Pacific securities also advanced rapidly.
the common scoring a gain of four points
in the two days and the preferred six
points. Northwest went to $50 from l47.
The Intrinsic merits of all these Securi-
ties would, perhaps, warrant these prices
in time but certainly they are now nearly
all above the comparative level of the re-
mander of the list, especially New York
Central. The story that started the re-
markable squirt in this group of stocks was
III
roads into enc great trans continental VAN
derbilt system to reach from New York to
the Pacific Coast. It viii be remembered by
readers OF this column that the plan was
outlined carefully nearly month ago.
At the time the statement was made that
the plan was under consideration and no
more can be said now despite the publica-
lions made by various Wall Street news
agencies yesterday. In fact it seems
probable that there may be denials in the
newspapers this morning. no matter how
much truth there may be in it.
The grangers we're practically the only
stocks on the list thar did not show good
advances. The fact was noted here on
Thursday that it Was time for speculation
to turn away from these issues somewhat
for day or two, after their violent rise,
in order that other parts of the list might
catch up 10 u certain extent. This has
now been accomplished. measurably at
least and there is good reason to believe
that the grangers will again take a COM
handing position on the board. Especial
" is it probable that Rock Island and ST.
Paul viii have good advances. There
seems no doubt that before the present
year is out both these stocks viii be on a
6 per cent dividend paying basis, which
with their equally good position in every
way will probably cause them TO equal
Burlington in price.
People who bought Manhattan early in
the week and sold out at the top price
Friday were able to make one of the pref
test turns ever seen on the Street. Many
doubtless did this But the tip was every-
where that the stock would 90 to i25 be-
fore the end of the week and by far the
great majority of spectators must have
held on yesterday. These people saw a
third OF their profit vanish in few hours
in a drop from lis. the high figure, to iii
and fraction at the close yesterday. Those
who pyramided on their gains may have
lost everything The price promised. l25,
may be reached this week or it may not.
Many of the lowerpriced securities seem
assured of advances now that the grangers
and other best stocks have been carried
up on this list most of the market crit
les nut the Northern Pacific issues, the
Atchison issues. Norfolk and Western.
Southern. and Central Pacific. Canada
Southern. Missouri Pacific. Louisville
Southern. and Big Four especially. None
of these stocks are now selling at prices
anywhere near the warrant OF their pres
ent and prospective earnings. One or two
of them are now the subject of most al
Turing rumors as to dividends and other
matters.
The feature OF trading on the local gX-
change yesterday was the decline in tie
price of Capital Traction stock from 81 to
81 and fraction. No large BIO k, of
stock came out either at the high pIiea or
the later quotations and it was eyid nj
that the price WAS depressed 70" the p +
pose of accumulating stock. The position
OF The road is superb. Its earnings a g
larger than ever before. The time is o
far of when it will be paying per cent
dividends on its stock. More than this l.
earned at present Its lines into tn sub
urbs are every year becoming more val
liable. one argument heard on the st e
yesterday was that when the Suburban
road secured the Capital Railway it took
away from the Capital Traction CONF any
$50 600 a year that might have b en- kept
il the Capital Traction had been the buyer.
This is partially true but very little
weight can lesltimatsly be attached to it.
More than 600 shares of stock were
traded in on the exchane" yesterday. The
very heavy record was caused largely ~
In unloading OF two large blocks of Pneu-
| matte Gun Carriage The total number of
| shares of this stock was $500. Under this
heavy selling the price of Gun Carriage
| ,s-uS a G9l fro, 4 q