New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1899-12-31
financial.
FINANCIAL FORECAST.

uuUHuvVun6 D VtoVHSss
The market and the country are far apart
Just now The country has been going forwaru'
The market has gone backward The distance
between the country and the market AT this
:iine Is extreme and extraordinary. The Uniteo
States has been steadily draining other coun-
tries Of their gold. That new wealth has come
direct to farmers Farmers have few BANK
accounts and keep currency Mechanics are
generally prosperous now and have money IN
pocket. So 1t has come about that the Govern
ment prosperous farmers and cheerful mechan-
les have simultaneously tied up the currency
of the country in stockings, pockets and vaults
Such money has been out OF the reach Of
speculation
An exceptional period Of industrial activity,
worldwide. has developed under natural causes,
exactly as predicted in this column years ago.
an every nation has business needs at this
time for all its own money and could use
more Necessities and anxieties OF England
have intensified ms strain on international
finance. These influences and important rep
resentatives of congregated capital have also
withheld money from of speculation.
Months ago it was said in this column: The
speculative public has strength enough to pro-
tect itself long as 1t limits its operations to
sound railway securities, but has not money
enough and is not strong enough to carry at
the same time the unseasoned Industrial Sc
curities." Mr.. Keene and many others held
similar opinions II the public had confined its
operations to sound railway shares they would
have sold higher than they did sell and would
not have fallen back where they now are. The
crush-down Of the general market has dragged
down such shares faI below the level which we
think the earnings and business conditions JUS
tify
We have seen a collapse of speculative vent
ures which has caused much loss to under
writer's and those who are backing them and
permitted complete massacre OF those who
manpuvre in Wall Street with margins but
this discontinue and disaster have been confined
TO speculative circles and would not have oc
CURED in such degree except for the influence
or the Boer war at a time when money was not
WITHIN reach OF the speculative public There
mas Deen no serious destruction of values in
any other department of human endeavor and
there VIII not be- Mr. Keene has published
opinions In conflict with this conclusion He
seems to think that the recent crush down Of
quotations was caused by conditions existing
IN this country. We do not agree with him.
IL cannot be demonstrated that the recent break
In quotations would have occurred II II had not
been for the Boer war, which filled with appre-
henslon all representatives OF international
finance and forced them to readjust their funds
ana their plans. 1t is literally incredible that
Mr.. keene has pursued his theories to the ex-
mat the present destruction Of quotations in
Wall Street will reach the country at large in
manner disastrous and end in depression"
1t can certainly exert no good influence on bust
ness circles TO predict disaster for them, nor
do we think such statement justified by existing
conditions. What is prosperity? The farmers
or the country are accommodating money and
there Is nothing to indicate change in their
condition. Mechanics are cheerful A favorable
position for the farmers and comfortable con-
dltlon Tor the mechanics are prosperity itself.
and will bring happy results in trade circles
so long as confidence Is not destroyed. Let us
support the confidence Of commercial circles
and the country will soon forget the discom-
INJURIES or wall Street. Real panics In the stock
market are brought about by falling conditions
In business, but nothing Of this kind has recent
ly occurred Outside conditions are not the
cause Of the late breakdown. On former oc-
casions when the market has had such a decline
merchants were receiving less profit and all
classes were suffering from reduced income
such Is not the case at this time. All men out
side OF Wall Street are now within the reach
or more money than has been the case in the
aftermath of any previous panic This will
enable them to secure funds for new specula-
tion. Most thinking investors believe that the
recent breakdown of quotations was not justi-
ned by shrinkage Of business. and therefore, as
soon az the pressure Is removed from the specu-
lative market. they will have confidence, and
money to take advantage Of the remarkable sit
uation. 1t will require short time for the
speculative community to pull itself together,
gain new recruits and accumuat e new energy
Dul as soon as fnS1Sn war necessities nave
lost their influence on our finances market
VIII begin advance which will not be COM
mon advance. but will be a radical and forceflil
reimbursement or values. II the readers OF this
column will limit their speculative Investments
TO the railway securities recommend they
VIII realize an opportunity for the strategic use
or money the like Of which will not come a
dozen times In the coming century. The posi-
ton OF American Railways has never been so
strong and so encouraging. Gigantic combina-
lions are In view and equities are being de-
veloped as never before. Omaha, for example,
has advanced $50 per share since we first in
troduced 1t to our readers Some months ago
we advised the exchange of railway bonds for
Pennsylvania and NewYork Central shares.
Those who followed this suggestion have re-
allied in rights and dividends more than double
the income their bonds would have yielded.
When St Paul shares were selling in the sew
entities we urged the American public to place
full reliance upon the outcome Of that property.
1t was then written here: This stock will thus
found the fortunes OF many American homes"
We now have this statement to make concern
ing Pan Handle shares. both common and pre-
ferred. II investors will ignore movements OF
the remainder OF the market and hold these
shares with confidence and persistency they
will realize in our opinion. outcome more
remarkable than has been realized either in ST.
Paul or Omaha After studlous consideration
OF this equity for period Of years and after
considering IL from every possible standpoint
legal, financial and railway. we deliberately pro-
nounce II the best railway equity which has
ever developed In the history OF the United
IN Iact the ran handle property itself
VIII have a larger outcome than any other
American railway. II the reader will reflect
upon II, the Pennsylvania system would amount
to nothing in the South or West II IT not
for Pan Handle. 1t consists of a group of diff
ferent railroads, all under one ownership, which
connect the Pennsylvania Railroad with Louis
VILE. Cincinnati. vincennes, st. Louis, Peoria
and Chicago. Cuthbert Mills has called this
property THE Lake Shore Of the Pennsylvania
system" lie might have said The Pan Handle
system Will become a group Of Lake Shores"
Fort Wayne stock s selling on the exchange at
S1s5. but II IN reported that Pennsylvania OFF,
Gals paying over 5000 In private negotia-
tions. The gross earnings Of Pan Handle are
now In excess OF S200O0O00 and the fixed
charges are only 100000 1t requires only
$3.30O,OOO net earnings to give the stockholders
the same realization Fort Wayne stockhold-
receive This company will always earn
much more than that a net result OF opera
ton 1t is our conviction that these shares are
more important in every way to the Pennsyl-
vania Railroad Company than the Fort Wayne
stock As time goes on the Pan Handle shares
yfi oh hp Work. "