New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1899-07-22
POPULATION IN 1900.
AN ESTIMATE THAT THE TWELFTH GEN.
sUs WILL SHOW LESS THAN 74.4SO,s6O.
H. T. NEwcoMB. sTATIsTIC1AN OF THE DEPART
MENT OF AGRICULTURE. USES METHODS
AND COMPARISONS BASED ON
PREVIOUS CENSUsES.

| MENT OF AGRICULTURE. USES METHODS
AND COMPARISONS BASED ON
! PREVIOUS CENsUsEs.
| Washington July q (speciaD.-Preparations are
| already considerably advanced for the enumera-
ton Of the population OF the United States
| which recurring In the regular decennal order
| provided for by the Constitution and fol-
lowed in unbroken sequence since 1870. will estab-
| lish the starting point for tho twentieth century
| development OF the worlds greatest republic.
In advance of the actual count, which will occur
during June 1900 there is naturally much specula-
ton to the actual increase during the decade
now closing. and. is equally natural among an
optimistic people. especially characterized by an
everreverberating National bride. there is a popu-
lar tendency to overstate the present and imme-
diately prospective population. II is not uncommon
TO hear or read the phrase eighty millions Of popu
lation' a metropolitan newspaper has collected
estimates Of population on January |. 1899, made
principally by Governors of States, which aggre-
gate 77s03.231; and. in spite of the marked decline
in immigration during the present as compared
with the decade Immediately preceding. the i'm
preston that the Twelfth Census will show pop
ulation aggregating not less than seventyeight or
seventy-seven millions is almost universal.
An estimate prepared by the Government Actu-
airy of the Treasury Department, published by the
Bureau OF Statistics of that Department, and made
the basis of several important calculations under
taken in the latter office, gives support to the
popular expectation This estimate places the popu
lation on June l. 1885, at 73S90cO, thus assuming
increase of 11.76s $50. 1879 per since the
census of 1890 very rough calculation, involving
minimum of mathematical knowledge, yet
that would not be widely inaccurate for short
period If the original premises were correct, shows
that this estimate involves average annual in
crease Of 14710OO. which, If carried TO the end Of
the decade. would give a total population at that
time OF 900 a more careful study of the
Treasury estimates taking into consideration those
published for each year since $780, indicates that
the Actuary assumes that the movement OF popu-
lation conforms to what IS known an algebraic
OF the third degree Such curve may be
prolonged indefinitely. and it involves but com
paratively simple calculation to discover that the
Treasury estimate of population for the year 1900
must unless the present method is radically modi-
fed be between 1675Oco and r. $4,000
Taking the mean Of these figures tho increase
from 1890 to 1900 would be 240i per cent which is
to be compared with "a Sc per from 1850
1890 and 1854 per cent from 1860 to 1870 These per-
centages result from accepting the very reasonable
correction of the census OF 1870 the deficiency OF
which is generally recognized proposed by the
authors Of the report population Of the Eleventh
Census. The percentages resulting from the OF
the uncorrected total for 1870 3O0S and 22e3
spectively 1t is not impossible that the population
OF the United States in 1860 is overstated In the
census OF that year.
DOUBTS AS TO GREAT INCREASE.
Doubt inevitably attaches to the possibility OF
80 great an increase during the present decade
when the facts that the natural rate of increase
OF population in regions once fairly occupied tends
constantly TO decrease, and that immigration has
considerably fallen off since $780, receive attention
The necessity of making suitable allowance for the
former source of is well illustrated by the
successes and failures in the celebrated series OF
estimates made by Elkanah Watson some time
between the census OF 1910 and that OF 1870 These
are portrayed in the following table,