The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1899-11-06
WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW.
Cotton Turned stronger-Light Move
ment and Frost Reports Too Much
for the Bears.


ment and Frost Reports Too Much
for the Bears.
After ruling feverish early in the week,
the cotton market developed strength lat
err There was a moderate reaction at
the close, but final figures show net ad-
vance of about 16 points, January, 1890.
Bearish arguments were persistent, talk
of a promising top crop, British reverses
in the Transvaal and the construction pul
upon Ellison's estimate of the worlds re-
quirements. These exerted more or less
influence early, but were lost sight of later
in view of the very light movement and
the advent of frost, which put quietus
to the top crop expec tations. There came
in sight for the week 1000 bales less than
last year
Mr.. Ellison announces a general increase
in the number of spindles, in which the
whole world shares; in fact, ne makes the
American increase no greater than else
where. At the same time, he estima ties
that on account of the advance In prices
the world will require of American cotton
about 100000 bales less than last year. A
crop of only 9,6S2OO0 bales, he says will
suffice, and leave a comfortable surplus at
the years end.
Let Mr.. NELL estimate the crops, and
Mr.. Ellison the requirements of the world
and if these estimates be made the basis
for fixing prices, the cotton planter would
likely have a poor show in this vale Of
tears. And this is said without any inten-
ton of disparaging the good faith of the
authorities mentioned.
Mr.. Ellison says the world will make out
very well with a crop of 1852, 900 bales; il
is very well known that Mr. Ellison Is
very conservative, and he basis his fig
ures of the worlds needs upon what he
considers n
the crop For instance if the American
crop looked like only 7,50O0OO bales. Mr..
ELLISON would no doubt find that with Whal
was carried over and proper economy.
there would be enough to go around all
the same
But let US look a little more closely at
his figures. He says the world wants
about 100000 less American cotton than
last year. Now, American spinners pro-
pose 10 use about 100000 bales more than
last year, so that Europe then, vents
about 1,0O0 coo bales less. Nobody will bel e q
that European consumption will fall off
so much as that except from ne es itv.
but the necessity may come As the
American requirements are. say OO1 coo
bales, and there is a good prospect of the
crop not exceeding 100000 this would
leave only 5000, GOO bales for Europe aoa .nst
1901 900 last year, a decrease of 100000 in
stead of LOCO 900 Such contingency en-
ners only with dismay. and althougN mat
ters may not turn out quite so bad the p9-
sition has changed. 1t is not a quesd n
of how much Europe wants, but how mu h
she can get. The American mills will
keep on spinning, and will not be in the
least disturbed by trihng advance Of a
few cents a pound. Indeed, the hieher
the prices, the bigger the profits, up to a
certain point.
This brings up another point of Mr.. FL
fison's statement, namely that the adv nee
in prices will cause decreased consumption
Lower prices increase consumption, ami
higher prices redace it; this is true in
practice as well as in theory Yet it Is
equally true that such results are by 10
means immediate. especially in such an in
dustry as cotton spinning. 1t took long
time for the demand TO expand eno1gh 10
meet the recent oyerprOduction. II takes
time to interest new capital, to bu11 new
mills. And while consumption was uu-
dergoing expansion. the oversupply caus-
ed prices to fall below the point of equili-
brium--in fact below the cos of produc-
ton. Similarly, the rate of consumption
is not Immediately checked by an advance
in the price; why should il be in this ca e?
1t may be time to talk of reduced con-
sumption after several cents more are adj
ed 20 the price, and big stocks of manu-
featured goods accumulate without buy
ers. The claim that 7-cent cotton will re-
duce consumption seems preposterous. 1t
is no fair price for cotton; 1t represents
scanty remuneration for wages and a mig
gardly return for land.
At s cents American mills will eat up
a 600 600 bales this year; how much viii Eu-
rome take, and how much will she have TO
nav for the latter part of her takings?
VIM. T. Williams.