The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1899-08-16
WELLS REPORT DlSCREDlTED.
COTTON MEN CONSIDER HIS EsTI-
WAITE UNRELIABLE.


"a Cults Explains NeiII's Methods
and Reviews the Crop Conditions.
With Decreased Acreage, Less
Fertilizers Used and DrOughts in
Texas and the Piedmont Section
the Present Crop Cannot Be Ex-
Dected to Equal the Last One.
The estimate of Henry M Neil of New
h Orleans. published in yesterdays Morning
News. TO the effect that the promise of the
present cotton crop is fully equal if not
snperior to that of last year, is viewed with
very decided discredit by the cotton men
nj savannah, including the brokers' who
have less interest in bulling the market
than any other class.
Mr. Neil gives authority to his pre-
dictlon by referring to those of previous
large crops without saying anything about
his predictions as to other crops, which
failed of realization. The depressing effect
OF such a prediction was evident at once to
4 everyone acquainted in any degree with the
4 cotton business. This was plainly shown
by the state of the market here.
The estimate is made in the interest of
the Manchester spinners," said Mr.. E. A.
Cuts Mr. Nein makes practice Of
sending out these high estimates each
season. He has succeeded in hitting it
right a few times, and this gives his pre-
dletions a weight with the trade, the times
when he has overestimated the crop being
overlooked. The estimate is not at all
warranted by the present conditions, and is
likely TO be as badly off as some of Mr.
NeuIs previous estimates. Notwithstand-
7ru immense size of last wears crOn
Mr. Neills estimate exceeded it nearly
lo,N 600 baes."
Tine damage wrought by these excessive
estimates can hardly be calcula ted" said
1r. CUTS. The estimate sent out yester-
day means a very serious loss 10 the
farmers of the South. The market was
kao ked down II points to-day as the
result Spinners were buying freely at the
prevailing prices, and were very well sat
lsfed to get cotton at those prices. AS a
consequence of Mr. Neills estimate, they
viii hold off and the diminished demand
VIII decrease prices"
As TO Mr.. Neilrs object in sending out
these excessive estimates at the beginning
of each season, Mr.. Cults said: Il am at
d loss to understand the object II is con-
tended by those who defend him that he
has made no profit out of his predictions.
His firm does a cotton buying bust
ness at Liverpool and has an office in
New Orleans. Whatever Mr.. Neilrs OBJ
Ject is, il is certain that his predictions
have the effect of depressing the price,
and the spinners reap the benefit. Wheth-
II er the estimate proves to be correct or
Il not the effect is to reduce prices and the
farmers of the South are the losers"
Mr.. Neil's estimates are not based up
on reports as to the condition of the crop
4 throughout the cotton region" said Mr..
Cuts "One would suppose from the au-
Chority with which his estimates are CIV
en- and accepted that he had a large force
OF clerks employed in gathering informa-
ton and tabulating statistics. The fact
is that his office force is very small. He
does not rely upon the reports of CORE
spondents as to the state of the crop, but
bases his calculations entirely upon elm
ate conditions. His estima ties of the crop
are governed entirely by the weather re-
ports. Even upon this basis 1 do not see
now ne can make the assertion that this
years crop promises to be equal if not
superior, to that of last year"
The conditions are these" said Mr.
CUTS, reduced acreage, a decreased use
Of fertilizers, severe drought in Texas
the damage done by the Brazos river val
ley flood, and the generally spotted condi-
ton Of the crop in Georgia, South Caro-
line and North Carolina, due to the long
drought and the appearance of rust. l do
not see how it is possible for the crop
OF this year to equal the last even under
tae most favorable conditions from now
the Carolinas, which produced a fine crop
last year, viii not give a yield of more
than 50 per cent. this year. The drought
ana Hoods in Texas have undoubtedly done
considerable damage 1t is impossible for
the crop TO recoup in the short time left
to It,"
Another thing to be considered said
Mr. CUTS, lis that the last season was
an unusually favorable one for harvest
ing the crop. Harvesting continued until
Ia in . ha.a
unusual yield. There was some loss from
storms, but such losses may be expected
IN every crop. 1t is hardly reasonable
4 10 suppose that such another favorable
harvest season will follow upon the last.
All reports show the top crop to have been
seriously cut off by the drought, that the
cotton is shedding badly and that it is
opening rapidly An early fall would re-
uuce the crop very materially. Taking
an the facts into consideration. woull
consider an estimate of 1850 900 bales a
very liberal one"
Mr. Cuts referred to the circu1ar let-
tets sent out on Aug. II by williams &
wright and A. S. Johnson, both large cot
WI buyers Of Meridian, Miss. both of
"hom, he said, are in better condition to
ne acquainted with the crop than Mr.. Neil
ana whose estimates are much more like
~ to be correct. Both letters are of in
SsIeat as showing the condition of the crop
1Ion actual observation. The letter OF
w w H lam, e. Wright, prepared by Mr.. j
Y, Williams, says:
me writer left Meridian on July q for
oayhght ride through the cotton bell
rom mere to Norfolk, Va, en- route 10 the
rust The crop then suffering from
drought which was most severe in East
alaoama, Northeast Georgia and South
CaIolna, the plant having apparently
stopped growing, and blooming on the top
Idsslhg through The same territory a few
lays ago. it was noticed that The crop in
Horth and South Carolina and Northeast
.Geolsla' had made lit tie or no progress, II
ute twenty days that had elapsed from fls
observation. From Atlanta. Ga, to Wes
ONT Ca, there was marAed improve.
Ineht, but from West Point to within thir.
y miles of Meridian, the plant had lost
sICuhd' having been attacked by rust ans
suuerlhs from an insufficient amount o
moisture. There is rust. in a more or les.