The Pacific commercial advertiser. [volume] (Honolulu, Hawaiian Islands) 1885-1921, 1899-07-15
NOT A PROPHET.

Mr.. Curtis J. Lyons has had a very
narrow escape from being enrolled
among the only reliable prophets OF
the world. He has sacrificed himself
TO his extreme modesty, and must con
time in the ranks of the old Prob
abilities" who are engaged in predict
ing, with qualifications, the course oil
physical events.
I'm May last, he said, 1T is reason
able for us to look for a probable
lava flow at some time between now
and 1901" and further qualified this
moderate outlook by saying that cit
was not prediction, but a statement
of facts
Looking at the matter from the
standpoint of the hind sight which
has decided advantages over the fore
sight" in human affairs, Mr.. Lyons
has been too frank with the public.
If he had stripped his statement of all
qualifications, and with a bold men
tai lrnscrupulousness, simply stood on
bold prediction of lava flow, he
would now occupy a position supreme
ly above the Almanac prophets
and the lesser prophets of the Weather
Bureau who deal only in probabilities
Even if the outbreak on Mauna Loa,
did not happen until after 1901, he
would have been in no worse position
than the prophets of the Millerite per-
suasion, who foretold to day the
ending of the world and when it did
not end, according to calculations,
merely replied that some miserable
clerk had made an error in the figures,
and without embarrassment they fixed
another day. If Mr.. Lyons had adopt
ed modern business methods in de-
scribing the volcanic outlook, he would
not now be wearing the fifth rate de-
coratiOns of the Order of Probabilities,
but would be in receipt from all of
the scientific societies of the world Of
the Grand Cross of the Order of the
Infallible Prophets, and even the Shah
of Persia would decorate him with the
Order of the Ripe Watermelon, which
dic COHleTS only on OmulSC1enL crea-
lures.
The skill with which he suggested
the outbreak may be due primarily
to the fact that he was born not far
from Mauna Loa, and that prenatal
tendencies due to this fact, have given
him some miraculous gift of foretell-
ing volcanic events just as birds fore
tell storms. 1t is far within the domain
of psychology, and the mysterious re-
lations of mind to matter that through
his birth he holds certain occult rela-
tons with the mystic forces of Nature,
and with levers and screws he is able
to extort her secrets. While the rest
of us see only the outer shell, he seems
to know the combination which I'M
locks her doors. What should have
been an uncompromising prophecy, he
lowered to "a very common probable
ity.
MIR. Lyon suggests that there may be
some connection between the sun spots
and volcanic outbreaks. This is hard
ly a tenable proposition. The extinc-
ton OF the volcanoes ON all of the ISL
ands, excepting Hawaii, indicates that
the sun spots are now worthless as
astral forces, and are. mo, better than
'Old junk" in pumping UP lava. 1t
is much more probable that powerful
electric rays emitted from the active
Star of Empire, since the act of annex
alton, have caused the disturbance, for
every outbreak and flow increases the
area Or bulk of American territory
Mr. Lyons knows more about this af-
fair than he chooses to tell. He is
undoubtedly waiting for Congress to
extend the Constitution of the United
States to these Islands, and when that
is done he may think it will be safe
to give us more definite information.