The Dawson news. (Dawson, Ga.) 1889-current, 1899-08-23
NEILL'S REPORT DISCREDITED
COTTON MEN CONSIDER HIS ESTI-
MATE UNRELIABLE.
No Possibility of 12,OOO,OOO-Bale
Crop This Year 1t Is Claimed.
His Methods Explained.

The estimate of Henry M. Neil of
New Orleans to the effect that the prom
Use of the present cotton crop IS fully
equal If not superior, to that of last
wear is viewed with very decided dis
credit by the cotton men OF Savannah,
including the brokers, who have less in
terest in bulling the market than any
other class.
Mr.. Neill gives authority to his pre-
dIction by referring to those of previous
large crops without saying anything
about his predictions as to other crops,
which failed of realization. The depress-
ing effect of such prediction was evil
dent at once to everyone acquainted in
any degree with the cotton business.
This was plainly shown by the state OF
the market here:
"The estimate is made in the interest
of the Manchester spinners, sad Mr.. Il.
A. Cults. "Mr. Neill makes practice OF
sending out these high estimates each
season. He has succeeded in hitting lC
right a few times, aud this gives his pres
dictons a weight with the trade, the
times when he has over estimated the
crop being overlooked. The estimate is
not at all warranted by the present con-
ditions. and is likely TO be as badly off
as some of Mr.. Neil's previous estimates.
Notwithstanding the immense slza OF
last years crop Mr. Nel's estimate ex-
ceeded it nearly 100000 bales :"
1.-The damage wrl ught by these eX-
cessiye estimates can hardly be calculat-
ed. The estimate sent ont means very
serious loss to the farmers OF the south.
The market was knocked down IA points
today as the result. SpinnerS were buy
ing freely at the prevailing prices, ana
were very we'll satisfied To get cotton at
those prices AS a consequence OF Mr..
Nellrs estimate, they will hold off and
the diminished demand will decrease
prices.
AS to Mr.. Neill's object in sending out
these excessive estimates at the begin
ming of each season, Mr.. Cuts said: 81
am at a loss to understand the object. 1t
is contended by those who defend him
that he has made no profit out of his
predictions. His finn does cotton buy
ing business at Liverpool and vas an Of
fee in New Orleans. Whatever Mr..
N ELL q ODJ0cC il, IL Is C6ICdiu GuhG MS
predictions have the effect of depressing
the price, and the spiuners reap the ben
cit. Whether the estimate proves to be
correct or not, the effect is to reduce the
prices and the farmers OF the south are
the losers"
"Mr. Neill's estimates are not based
upon reports as to the condition OF the
crop throug hout the cotton region. One
would suppose from the authority with
which his estimates are given and ac-
cepteo that he had large force OF clerks
employed in gathering information and
tabulating statistics. The fact is that
his office force is very small. He does
not rely upon the repoIts of correspond
ents as to the state of the crop, but bases
his calculations entlreiy upon climatic
conditions. His estimates of the crops
are governed entirely by the weather re-
ports. Even upon this basis | do not
see how he can make the assertion that
this years crop prom ses to be equal, if
not superior, TO that of last year, Sa-
Vannah News.