The Houston daily post. [volume] (Houston, Tex.) 1886-1903, 1899-08-17
HOUSTON, THURSDAY, AUGUST IT.
TEN PAGES TODAY,
mEcKLEss COTTON CROP euEssnHs

Mr.. Henry Neil, who poses as cotton
statistitian and crop prophet, has come out
with one of his usual circulars forecasting
an immense yield OF the South's staple,
and warning splnners that the coming
crop promises to be by far the largest ever
recorded.
That Mr.. Neill should issue his
pronunciamento just after cotton had ad-
yanced 40 or 80 points was not merely
a coincidence, He certainly had q purpose
In giving out his estimate at this time
and that purpose was undoubtedly to pre-
vent any further enhancement OF prices
He knows full we'll that foreign spinners
use his audacious prophecies to depress
the market and that they depend upon
him for such forecasts 1t Is not strange,
therefore, that the first information of
Mr.. Neill's circular was obtained in Liv-
erpool, and that the foreign cotton market
began the decline that has been recorded
for three days. Cotton is today 30 TO 40
points lower than 1t was at the close OF
last week. and the greater part of this
decline can be attributed to Mr.. Neill and
his parasites.
Why the world should place any de-
pendence in this alleged cotton authority
Is one of the mysteries of the speculative
market. He has made some very good
guesses, 1t Is true, but the majority Of
his estimates were wholly wrong, He
generally gives out five or six different
guesses each season. and then ut the close
OF the year calls attention to the correct
ness of one OF his forecasts For the
season OF 1sss99, which VIII end Septem-
Der LIST. he estimated the crop all the way
from 10 100000 to 12,250,00o bales His
favorite guess was for crop in the neigh
borhood OF 100000 bales, and It was
on this estimate that cotton values suf-
fered such n serious decline last fall. Mr..
NELL now admits that he missed the true
yield by at least 100000 bales, but says
ed had not such dreadful weather pre-
vailed last winter.
In making this Acknowledgement Mr.
Nell shows wherein any attempt to esti-
mate tho crop during the month of August
is the height of folly. He declares that
the weather conditions prevailing last De
cember, January and February, seriously
curtailed the crop just marketed, And ye
he is willing to place himself on rocorl
the 12th day OF August in predicting thu
yield of crop that Is just beginning tn,
picking season. Knowing full we'll tina
the most critical period OF the crop yea
is still ahead OF the planter he has tn,
supreme audacity to announce to tn,
spinning world that the largest yield eve
marketed is practically assured In on
sentence he tells tho trade that a vas
amount OF cotton was lost in the field
last year, after 1t had been made, an,
In the next gives out an estimate OF tn
new crop before II has been made.
Every man familiar with the cottol
plant knows that weather conditions dur
Ing the next 60 days can easily curtai
the prospective yield by million or NOR
bales, and that any attempt to forecas
the crop this early in the season Is tn
worst sort of guesswork
1t Is indeed strange that such Gro,
guesses should have any influence upoi
the market. and It is very peculiar tina
men like Mr.. NELL should always use thei
influence to lower the value of the South
great product. 1t is a great injustice Il
the farmer. and has caused the loss o
millions OF dollars to these cotton pro
ducers. The estimates nearly always err
on the side OF an exaggerated crop, an,
seem to be given out with the intentlo,
OF bringing about decline In value. Mr.
Neill and his satellites undoubtedly prom
greatly thereby, but 1t Ia always at tn,
expense OF the man with the hoe"
u - shame and an outrage. and
reflection upon the intelligence OF cottor
traders and spectators, that such condl
lions are allowed to exist.