The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1899-12-31
THE THEORY OF AVERAGES
EFFECT or THE ACCIDENTAL ON TEE
WINNING AT RACETRBCEa
Ch,pee, Of which the weii-Informed
PAINTER with Plenty OF Capital May Take
AdyantsRe-Ups and Downs of Winning
"a vo.,nS- a. .tistice From the Tracks.

AdysntsEe-Ups and Downs OF winning
and Losing-ststistics From the Tracks.
The stock market has recently given strik.
Ing example Of the effect Of the accidental referred
n in the two last articles In THE SUN on the
subject Of luck and calculation. Starting some
months ago II has gone slowly to q CONSIDERABLY
lower level, nearer what Is termed by street cal
eulstors the oscillating point and all but the
experts thought when the rise and fall OF two
weeks ago occurred that II meant sudden re-
turn 10 the levels of the past twelve months
Experience shows that II indicated lower level
still. All" say tho doubters. but the Transvaal
war tho tightneas Of money In the metropolis
owing TO the great prosperity In outlying regions
had these no factor inHucncey Certainly. IL
Il not supposed for an instant that any demon
s,rated result Is lacking in influence; but the
Influence Il not continuously the same The
weather sharp knows that the more OF less long
dry spell il to be broken; he can tell what weather
Is approaching from the west. south and north;
hut what about the east the area Of weather acct
dentAls, When the rain comes and upscts his
predictions he realizes the accidental. but does
not deny that the percentage Of rainfall for the
year must be made up from somewhere. IL
simply the principle governing the red and black,
the dice. or the track, the law OF compensation
which governs oil such things The impor-
tancc Of these sccidentals can scarcely be over
estimated as regards things Of chance OF specu-
la,ion. They are the one great stumbling block
In the path Of the punter. and even tho expert
can only define their general whereabouts and
cannot in the hrst half Of the season point to
them with the certainty which will surround
his premonitions In the second half when the
average Of the year Is to be completed.
Let any one interested look UP the records "
the Sheepshead fall meetings for 1897 and 1898,
note the low average Of Inc first six OF eight days.
and then figure what man would have made
by starting In with scaling bets on first favories
TO finish the meeting as IL rose 10 the closing aver
age Of the 4. per cent. and even the IS per cent.
4 visitor 10 the city wishing to take In the tracks
and knowing nothing Of the inner details. asked
the writer what to do in 1897 and told to play
first favoritcs for the next six days he did
and said later the capital required was sb6, the
winnings sl69. on a 50 initial bet. He came in
when the block Of "accidentals" had lust closed
and the percentage OF the year TO date was away
below the average The smaller punter possibly
could not take advantage Of the upward move
ment because In the nrst place he probably did not
know anything about its coming and in the
next because his losses through the preceding
low average had seriously depleted his capital.
and what was worse, his self confidence. Hope
springs eternal in the human breast" wrote a
man who knew very little, practically, about
rncetrack and other punters, but he hit the mark
iust the same. and his dictum Ii TO be read In
many ways: in two in a racing sense namely.
that Is apparently impossible TO crush the punter
for keeps unless he Is rendered devoid Of capital
or credit and that when. by sheer continuity Of
play. luck or what not ne strikes In on maturity
,i.Nv nu,s I, dovn ~ Individual .r,,,ns.. and
'o's ,.tt.," - 49, a..
will last indefinitely Consequently one hears
men .,v -Witb nv "a initial they cannot heat me-
.,ich !, nos.ibix ,,ue i, IN. initial r., /. r.n,
Which ~ possibly Uue u 'he iniHa' Cc' II kep'
within the capital ON accepted lines but there
comes the rub 4 little sound statistical knowl-
edge ana reasoning wou'u nave SHOWN mat
whether such streak Of success Is due TO the
, ~ ..,..n -, 49,, 81. 81
average nv '"' '"S'.i" v, "'"e, "".NS VI e"p''
10 the maturing Of the individual line Of play the
returning swing Of the pendulum was at hand
and thai , small, or -, vre,,l run of losses must
anu ,na. Sn,o" VI *, ,s ~" y. 'oN'e' "'u''
As a rule this ignorance Of averages works
in either raising the initial he, beyond the capacity
a,tles in the player \, the wheel or the table,
an e,perienNed player gets up and lets i, work
round and out to more favorable condition. aud
in the curious alienation which generally pre-
exchange man predict, strong bulge one way
G sap IN %sSs way hsn
OF very low prices. This, particular phase is
a, ss record q ase
tenth dayso 1897 where two Alterations Of three
wins are broken by q single loss in turn preceded
toned being followed by three alternate wins
and three alternate losses to crystalline into the
overs Of Belmar and OItoland in the first and
seSond races Of Aug IL OF that year. Then
punches Of two and three followed by a vim and
man with wit and sand TO wait and watch for