The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1899-06-12

IA rOfecastfng the Future of the
Market - TemperamentaI Causes
Have Had Much to Do With the
Falling on In the Bulk of Tran.-
actions-Gold Shipments.
Z NEW YORK. June 10.-Henry Clews'
weekly review of the stock market says:
In wall street. affairs have exhibited
another week of comparative dullness.
The declining tendency OF values appar-
ent during the two or three weeks proceed
Ing has certainly been checked; but the
late yielding of prices has not as yet in
duced enough buying to produce general
activity to be in Keeping with the recov-.
cry III the tone of the market. Prices are
probably not low enough to tempt ex-
IRENE buying, nor high enough to encour-
age either realizing or bear selling;
and, at the same time, there are no out
side influences calculated to materially
affect operations violently in either the
one direction or the other
There are also temperamental causes
which have had much to do with the COL
lapse In transactions to about 40 per cent
or their recent volume The speculative
element in Wall street is above all mer-
cur1al. 1t Is highly sensitive to impulse.
and follows drifts in either direction until
theY culminate in extremes; after the ex-
tremes come reactions in the opposite d.
rect1on; and, after the reactions, a col
lapse of excitement and a contraction of
operations. Then ensues phase of mac
uon and waiting, during which the situa-
ton Is carefully weighed, prices are
sharply tested by the professional traders
and safe bottom is thereby reached
In the meantime, the weaker class of
operators are weeded out, a new set Of
off
speculative spirit RECEIVERS its elasticity
and the elements for another campaign
are forthcoming
This is very much q recital Of the
course Of events in the stock market for
the last twelve months. Taken as a
Whole, 1t has been bull" campaign of
unequaled force and activity. During
the last quarter of 1888 there was
downward reaction; but, with the OPEN
Ing OF 1899, the upward tendency recov-
cred Its force and, within four months,
carried UP prices to figures unanticipated
py the most sanguine and surprising all
experience. AT the crisis when prices had
reached an elevation 80 abnormally high
that relapse was inevitable, the market
was taken by surprise by the immense
consultations Of industrial capital That
movement, though not bringing on the
market a supply Of new securities at all
proportioned to the magnitude of the
transformed capitals, had yet the effect
of introducing into the money market a
new element of vast Importance 1t
caused demands for considerable trans
lent loans, which were not without their
effect upon large holders of ordinary
stocks, and gave rise to q wide diversity
OF opinions as to the bearing Of this
great industrial reconstruction upon the
future of credits, investments and spec
ulation; while it diverted money from
speculation in the older stocks to ven
lures In these new industrials. Thus the
great bull movement in the regular list
encountered staggering obstruction
from the unforeseen creation of vast
amount Of new industrials destined to
henceforth play an important part in the
operations of the stock exchange The
marvel is not SO much that this sudden
expansion of the area of the stock mar
ket should have produced pause In the
prevailing extraordinary bull campaign
as that 1t has not been attended with
more disturbing effects The fact that
the market has SO well preserved its
equilibrium-and that in the face of the
trying happenings to the Flower interest
and OF an unsettled money markets.
remarkable evidence of the intrinsic
strength of the financial markets and of
the prevailing steadiness of public con-
idence.
III estimating the future OF the stock
market 1t is not to be overlooked that
Urls new element must be one Of the
most important factors to be dealt with.
30 Tar as this situation means %, that an
ADDITION has been made to the supply of
securities seeking Investment and (2)
That the stock exchange demand upon
tfe banks for loans will DE thereby broad
ened-so far the new situation is not TO
DC regarded as one altogether favorable
to extreme prices. Whether values have
been already adjusted to the new position
admits of differences of opinion. 1t is
true that the fall in prices from the high
est hgures has already been quite, consid-
erapIe; but those highest prices were the
result OF an unprecedentedly rampant
speculation and were much above the nor
mai level. On the other hand, the spe-
cial national prosperity that has led to
the great speculative activity still contin-
ues and with no visible reasons for ex-
pecting its early discontinuance 1t is
also to be kept in view that as a rule.
there Is no imperative necessity for the
immediate marketing of the new indus
trials. For the most part those stocks
nave gone into the hands of the original
owners OF the properties consolidated,
VINO, 1t may be presumed, would be SELL
ers only at high prices and not before the
value OF the stocks had been demonstrate
ed by experience. Probably the princi-
pal sellers of these issues would be pro-
motors of the consultations whose com
pensat1on had been paid in stock: and
the question, in respect to such holders
Is whether they could not get better
prices by holding than by realizing under
the present uncertainties and pending q
glut OF supply. Be this as it may, 1t Is
certain that the financial interest COM
mitted to the launching of these new is
sues is quite large and influential one.
and 1t is clear that-their ability to sell
their stocks must entirely depend upon
the maintenance of a healthy tone in the
general stock market. The older stocks
nave therefore the solid backing of this
important class, which is a matter of no
small moment to the future of the rail-
road list. It is, however too early az
yet to venture upon definite foreshadow-
ings; and, for the moment, 1 would coun-
sci the buying of sound stocks and for
modest profits only. The work of the
hour, with the leaders of speculation. is
to canvass the new situation and mature
plans for the next phase of the great
campaign which began year ago and
does not seem to have yet completed Its
course; for 1t means that Wall street is In
process Of a radical reconstruction. as
yet only partially understood
Some surprise has been caused by ship
ments OF gold during the week, outside
the ordinary course Of exchange The re-
mittances, aggregating $5,500,O00, have
been chiefly made by one bank and that
institution Is the one which negotiated
the settlement of the Spanish Indemnity.
Interest has conferred more In the mo-
tive of the transaction than in its import
ance; for 1t Is not regarded as foreshad-
owing any continuous or important ex-
port of specie nor as being of any great
significance to the future of the roopav