New-York tribune., 1899-06-15
WHEAT.

The Government official report as to wheat
bas boen interpreted many ways, estimates
hasAd on II VARYING nearly sixty million bushels.
ru.e other Government estimates for years, II
is lower than unofficial estimates which have
been found most nearly correct in the past, so
that tho highest Interpretation OF IT may be
treated as probably the more correct But IL IL
not difficult TO see that the markets nave thus
far nlaced little faith In the fOreshadowings OF
great decrease in output. ip' part because much
is expected from the spring wheat region and in
mart because there is impression that the
stock OF wheat to be carried over this year will
he greater than usual. 1t Is not strange that
such impressions prevail, for with wheat selling
n little above 15 cents at Chicago Western re-
ceipts are heavy. Little experience Is needed
for the inference that wheat would not be sent
forward so largely at low prices II fields were
bare and prospects altogether dismal But a de-
crease Of 100, 600 bushels from the great crop
of last year would not necessarily be mis-
fortune.
There is likely to be required during the COM
ing year for seed and food 42OOOOOOo
bushels II the Produce Exchange nterpreta-
tion of Government figures 561,91OOOO bushels
is correct-and II is not far from an average OF
other estimates entitled to credit on account OF
past success-there would remain for export
147, 7,9l0 900 bushels. besides any available sup
ply at the end of this crop year. The visible
supply is not heavy. and little larger than a
year ago, when 1t ran down somewhat later TO
the lowest point touched for many years. and
therefore a reduction therein this season would
tend to bring some Improvement In prices. II
there were not the probability that farmers
stocks and others outside OF visible supply have
that a quantity considerably over l4SOO0OOO
bushels could be exported. 1t is certain that the
market would not regard the outlook with as
much Indifference as Is shown For, while the
latest reports are that rains have fallen in Rus
sian provinces. where the prospect was most
gloomy the tenor OF previous information was
such that a good supply from that source can
hardly be expected.
The yield OF 1898 II 6S7 100000 bushels. ac-
cording TO reports. must have added much 70
available stocks. The average population for
the last year was about 1884. 600 which would
indicate a consumption OF 35l 55SOOO bushels
at the usual rate. and estimates raised the
probable use in seeding to 81 100000 bushels.
while 20S 125. 451 bushels have been exported in
eleven months, -four included and with June
exports equang those OF May the quantity for
the year would be about 223.OOOOO0 BUSH
|
els These data would indicate a distribu-
ton Of 636.OOOOO0 bushels and about
100000 have been added to the visible
supply leaving from the supposed crop
about - 100000 bushels still available. besides
supposed exports for July and visible supply
not diminished. 1t would not be at all surpris-
ing II farmers stocks and others held In farm
ing regions had been more largely In
creased. because they were drawn down to the
! lowest point a year ago 20 secure the high
prices caused by the Letter speculation. In
| fact the data seem to render II probable that
! the last crop a little larger than the COM
mon estimate. and the addition to supplies not
visible nearly 6OOOOOOO bushels.
II this be the fact the heavy shipments OF
! farmers during the last two weeks even at
| current low prices. cease to be surprising. and
J the estimate OF 567. 10000 bushels for the COM
| irg crop would then provide for food and seed
and nearly 200OO0OO0 bushels more for export.
with the good prospect in most foreign countries
except Russia, such a situation would not prom
Use, and. after last years experience. could
scarcely be expected TO sustain. much advance