The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1899-11-20
STOCK RISE BELATED
ALL FACTORS, ASIDE FROM STRIN-
GENT MONEY, POINT TO A
BULL CAMPAIGN
GOLD MAY BE IMPORTED

Heavy Trade Balance In Favor of
America Waiting Adjustment
Which VIII Follow as Soon as
the End of the TransvaaI War Is
in Sight-MOraI Effect of the Bond
Purchases Marked.
NEW YORK, Nov 19.-Henry Clews
weekly letter on the New York stock
market says: Again Wall street has
been in condition of struggle between
the upward forces incident to a position
of extraordinary national prosperity and
an insufticiency in the supply of credit
and circulation facilities. Outside the
monetary situation there can hardly be
said to be a bear element in the sit
uation. All other tendencies are ad-
mitted on all sides to favor a higher
range of values, and as a consequence
holders are indisposed to sell, strong
operators are ready to buy on the declines
and bears cOnfine themselves to tran
silent ventures based upon monetary fea-
lures. In brief the preponderant dispo-
sition IS to stand we'll for the 'bull''
campaign which all are anticipating. No
body, not even the most pessimistic
bear seems prepared to sell upon the
reasonable possibility of the money
stringency continuing to hold speculation
in restraint. Hold on to what you have
and buy on the drops" seems to be the
controlling policy all round. The "bull'
factors are considered so trustworthy
that all are willing to wait for their
fruition and unwilling to follow the ad-
verse currents of the money market
During the past week the foreign mar
kets have caught the same spirit The
political disquiet in the European capt.
tails appears to have produced a feeling
abroad that, under the present unsettling
conditions on the continent, American in
Vestments are likely to prove more steady
than those Of other cOuntries-to say
nothing of the chances of an improve
ment in their value when our money mar
ket becomes easier-and this feeling has
expressed itself within the last few days
in net purchases of about 100000 shares
on foreign account. This significant
movement comes in as an important re-
Enforcement of the home tendencies TO-
wards an ultimate general rise in prices.
1t means that in the estimation of foreign
investors and spectators American Sc
curites afford better promise than GER
tain classes of continental issues with
which their markets have recently been
oVer-supplied; and, thus interpreted. il
has an encouraging bearing upon the
New York market
To some extent this drift Of foreign
investment is to be attributed also to the
Impression produced abroad by the great
outburst Of Industrial activity in this
country and to the unmistakabIe evil
dences OF our immediate destiny as one
OF the foremost competitors for the
worlds international commerce.
1t Is a very significant fact that lust
at the moment when our state depart
ment authorizes an announcement of it's
hrm adherence to the policy of the
open-door and equality of opportunity
In the far East, the European bourses
send extraordinary orders for our Sc
curiues-shoWing that, however much
foreign countries may deprecate our
competition, they respect our invest
ments. 1t viii probably be found. how
ever, that there is limit to the extent
TO which these foreign purchases will be
at present carried. At all the European
money centerS Ct edit is about as stringent
"
with Europe as a whole is largely in
favor Of the United States So much is
this the case that it would not be sur
prising If some of these purchases of
stocks should be sent home again at an
early day; but, however that may be,
these export operations are significant
and assuring features of the market.
Whilst all intrinsic conditions of the
investment market-eutside the recent is
sues Of the industrial Observation-Disclosures
solid and promising of higher prices. yet
the problem as to when the rise may be
expected still remains entirely a question
of the money market not easily solved.
The reserves of the city banks remain
close on the dead line There is a
notable abatement of the shipments of
currency to the interior, but the receipts
from the West. are still less than they
should be at this season, and there are
no indications Of the extent of the ref1llx
from the country which always places
the banks In an easy condition in No
Vember. sudden rise in prices and
wages and large increase in the volume
of trade have together very greatly
sWelled the amount of money needed for
the retail circulation, and while the banks
need more legal tender money to meet
the increased demand for loans-or rather
to provide the enlarged reserves for
which the loans indirectly call-the aug
mented popular wants for cash settle
ments make 1t difficult for the banks
to get the supplies of lawful money which
their reserve laws demand The truth
IS we have reached position of COM
mercial expansion in which the restraints
of the national banking system make it
impossible for the banks to supply the
legitimate wants Of credit, and the diff
fculties in the money market must be
set down almost entirely to legislative
regulation which the times and the coun-
try have outgrown. This is an obsta Gle
to financial operations not easily over
come without remedy in the law We
may expect a return of these spasms with
every return Of the crop movement, and
during the intervals banking operations
must be needlessly restricted
Although Europe is undoubtedly large
ly indebted to this country, yet it is not
certain that we may safely calculate upon
remittances Of gold from that source. The
exports Of merchandise for last month
were $126, 764, 1856, while the imports were
S2,7G5,S94, showing a balance Of exports
of $54, 05SS9 which is about $12, 600, 600 less
than the balance for October, 1895. when
the exports were Sis, 619, 563 and the i'm
ports were $50, 1926. The exports for the
ten months ending with October have
surpassed all previous records reaching a
total of 1,02o,249, 2S6. The imports have
increased d30OOO,G00 above $685. but have
not been sufficient to radically reduce the
balance in favor of this country, which
for the ten months ending with October
two years ago, was $219, PAS, ia. and one
year ago $469169,226 The net imports of
gold for the ten months have been SIS. 1885,
69z, as compared with imports in 1893 Of
SSO'C2O62O. Taking the gold and silver
into account the net credit balarce in
favor Of the United States for the las
1OOnfb he to H. mn
the balance for the same months of 1898
was about $3.50, 100000. It is apparent from