The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1899-07-09

Indications That tho Census Estimate of
l2.OOO. 900 Is Too Low.

WASHINGTON. July 3 - According to tina
Census ONCE estimate. the increase in the
population OF the United States since 1890 will
not he greater in 1900 than ten millions. which.
added to the total in 1890 would bring up the
total to 72,OOO,OOO 1t is explained that.
though since 1870 the average gain OF popu'a-
ton has been 100000. sundry reasons lead
to tho belief that this gain has not been
maintained since the last census. II is
pointed out that from the summer Of 1893
to the summer of 1896. when the re-
suit OF the Presidential election was
practically foreshadowcd. there were three
years of hard times. suspended industrial pro-
duction and impairment Of business. whereby
many communities suffered Moreover in tho
fiscal year succeeding the last Federal census.
the foreign immigration to the United States
was 100000. In 1904 1t fell to 3l4 900. in 1897
to 100000 and in 1898 to ZOO.
These computations. like all which do not
take into account tho vast expansion now in
progress in tho United States. are based on i'm
perfect premises. The fact ia that the total
population OF the country to be shown by the
census of next year is more likely to be TO-
100000 than 72OO0.OOO. In the first place. it
is to be observed that while the increase in
population since 1870 has been put generally
at 1.2OOO year. it was in fact less at the be-
ginning OF the period and more at the
close From 1870 to 1890 the annual gain
in population in the United States averaged
11OO,OeO. In the ten years between 1880
and 1890 the annual gain averaged 100000:
1t IL quite true that for the whole period OF
twenty years the average annual increase was
l.2OOuOO, but the gain IN the second ten years
There is no reason whatever yet furnished
why the POPULATION of III" United States be-
EauENd by the ten years following the close Of
the civil war. some OF the un favorable effects
many y years Again rt the %r
tons imposed on Immigration. while they
have reduced tho total number of nav
comers. hay" reduced them in, a, way to
ton; The dccrcptt. the, inlrm, the ailing. tho
needy and the criminal have been excluded.
but those who add TO the wealth and contribute
to The benefit of country have bcen, admitted
other causes, entirely apart from immigration.
have been fnvorabc to the increase of the pop
SINCE $50 The gene 'I rHSa he@ @R"t aEmG s
the whole country through is better now than
it eyer was before. In tho large cities esspe-
York. the application OF sanitary measures Of
improved hygiene. has reduced the death rate.
that BY the last Federal were s9S ap
the United states. 7.3oo000 coiorsd inhabi.
tants. 100000 Mongo!inns and $4,000 civitzed
nese compared with the previous, census was
only per cent The civilized Indians showed
a railing OH, while the Increase among the col
ored population Of the country was only 3 per
cent. as ganst % per cent. in the total num-
Der of inhabitants. In other words. I'll" in
crease Of the white population is about double
TINT OF the colored population. and az each
year the proportion of white population
grows larger and tho proportion OF col
ored population in the country grows CORE
spond!ngly less. IL Is perfectly evident that the
rate OF increase In the whole population grows
larger from this cause. Assuming the increase
of the coOred populat ion OF the country to be
In accordance with the same percentage as
ruled before tho last national census. the total
number OF colorcd Inhabitants as returned in
OF the white population maintains the SANE
proportion as prior to 1890. the total number
Of white inhabitants will be oj4OO. OOO, aud
with the Chinese and civilized Indians added
the uncivilizcd Indians are not included in the
ccnsus-the total would be about 75Q0O,OOO.
Is every reason that It should be. as a Just
measure Of tho annual increase Of the popula-
tiUu of the United States from 1890 to 1900, it
will he seen that the total increase during the
time to he included in the next census will 10
l2.OOO0OO. This would give the result follow
ing for 1900:
Population, 1870 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. 90 ,722 $50
Seventy-ilvc millions In round numbers, will
be the population Of the country ono year
hence. and If the present conditions continue
a. there Is every indication that they will. the
total is more likely to be- above than below that
figure. Tho Actuary OF tho Treasury, who has
figures of the census. est imatcd tho population
q the country on June ]. 1873, to he "a .iS!,-
OOO and the accuracy OF that estimate is likely
to be shown next year.