The Manning times. [volume] (Manning, Clarendon County, S.C.) 1884-current, 1899-08-30
The Cotton Crop.

ACcOTOlUS " lHC -SSh = UAA S'iuLuS-
cial the cotton men in New York do
not put much faith in Mr.. Neill's esti-
mate of the crop. They claim that it
is extravagant and is not based on sub
stantial facts. The Commercial says:
Mr.. Neill's yearly report on the c.. =
situation is looked forward to with K :"
interest both in this country and III
England. Cotton operators in Engl.'d
especially have great respect for lis
judgment. Mr.. Neill predicted The
enormous crops of 1894 95, 1928,
and 1898 SO. The accuracy Of his pre-
dictions in those years have given him
worldwide reputation as cotton
crop expert. Whatever he has to say
concerning crop conditions or the tu-
ture of the growing crop is listened to
with close attention. But this year
the general opinion seems to be that
he has overshot the mark and that the
crop will fall short of his predictions.
He predicts crop of $1,000, 900 bales.
On the floor of the New York Stock
Exchange none of the traders seem to
think that the crop will be over 10, ,50O,-
600 bales at the highest. Mr.. Neill
estimates tie damage in the Brazos
river valley, the scene Of the recent
severe floods in Texas, at barely lOO,-
900 bales. E. S. Holmes, Jr., Of the
statistical bureau Of the Department Of
Agriculture, who has made special re-
por. on the agricultural stlatlon IN the
flooded section, states that conserva-
tive estimate Of the actual destruction
includes about 27T 900 bales.
Thomas NJ. Robinson, president Of
the Cotton Exchange, when asked what
he thought of the accuracy of Mr..
Neill's prediction, said: Il don't see
how Mr.. Neiil or any other man can
/ pretend to say this early in the year
what the crop will be. have known
careful estimates made as late In the
season as November to be wrong by as
big margin as 1000, 600 bales. The
possibilities of the crop, when all condi-
tions are favorable, are almost Infinite,
but account must be taken of possible
droughts, scorching temperature, and
other things likely to hurt the crop.
1t is hard to say just what result Mr..
Neill's report had on the market. Liver
pool opened four points lower, but
whether that is to be attributed to Mr..
Neill's report or other causes | don t
know. 1t is probably fact, though,
that as much or more reliance is placed
in Mr.. Neill's forecast in Liverpool
than anywhere else. English opera
tors seem to have great confidence IN
him. In my opinion it is much too
early to hazard an opinion as to how
large the crop will be this season"
S. T. Hubbard of Hubbard Bros. &
Co. said: ''The market tells the story.
The estimate undoubtedly gave it a
slight shock. But the report is believed
to be extravagant. A man who pretends
to say on August II what the crop will
be and that it can't be hur. seriously
by frost, rains or drought enough to af-
feet the ultimate yield is regarded as
rather loose prophet - Another prom-
inent trader said "The estimate is a
big fake. The probable yield is gross.
ly exaggerated and I don't think Mr..
Neill believes it himself. Why, orders
are being taken six months ahead for
cotton cloths, both here and abroad, on
basis that would allow the spinner to
pay S cents pound for middllpg cot
ton, and we are selling middling in the
pit every day at prices about g. cents
and 9s cents per pound. | would like
to know where Mr.. Neill gets the infor-
nation on which he bases his re-
port. We spend a good deal Of money
for information and it is just as good
as Mr.. Neill's. | fail to see how he de-
duces the facts embodied in his esti-
mate The estimate had no effect on
the market. "