Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1899-06-19
BALANCE OF TRADE
Will Not Be So Largely in Favor of
the United States.
DECREASE IN EXCESS OF EXPORTS
Increased Ability and Disposition to
Buy Abroad.
SENDING THE GOLD AWAY

| SENDING The GOLD AWAY
The downward tendency Of the balance
| of trade in favor of the United States
| which has been indicated for the last four
| months, is evidence that the balance will
soon reach normal condition, in striking
| contrast with the enormous excess of ex
| ports during the last two years. This ex
| cess of exports from the United States
reached $615 432 676 for the fiscal year
ending June 30, 1898, and has reached $685.
| 267, 053 for the eleven months ending with
| May, 1899. The excess of exports of mer-
| chandise continued so large during last win
| ter that the falling off during the spring
| has not yet reduced the figures for the
| fiscal year to a normal basis, but there is
every indication that the next fiscal year,
| beginning July 1, will show balance not
more than large enough to pay the interest
| on American securities held abroad, the
freight charges of foreign vessels and other
elements of the real balance. This is the
| opinion at the bureau of statistics where
Chief Austin makes careful study of the
monthly movement of the export and i'm
port trade. The recent shipment of gold
| from New York appears to have been due
| to special causes rather than the shifting
of the trade balance, but the fact that
American creullS are DelHs TeuuCeu
made it somewhat easier to ship gold with
out adding to the obligations on European
money markets to this country.
| Our Annual Debt to Europe.
An apparent balance for the past twenty
| three months of 81, 100000 in the mer-
chandise exports would unhinge foreign
| exchange and normal conditions of the
money market if there were not many
other important elements in the problem.
| The imports of gold into the United States
| during the same period have been about
$174,GO,000, while there have been net ex-
ports of silver, not included under merchan-
disc, amounting to about S4Soo0O0o. Inc
net result of these items would still leave
| an apparent balance in favor of the United
| States of about 1881, 100000 for twenty
three months.
| United States, however, on account OF
| freights to British and other foreign yes
| sells, interest on American securities ana
| similar items, was recently estimated ny
| the New York Journal of Commerce a1tef
careful investigation at about $lao'ooo'ooo
| per year. which would be about $33o,Oo,oo
| for twenty three months.
| A further item of Importance IS the re-
| purchase in this country OF American Sc
| curities which have been held abroad. Re
| cent inquiries among New York banking
| houses puts the return of these securities 10
| the United States since the beginning OF
| 1898 at nearly s40000000O The payment
| to the Spanish government on account OF
| the sovereignty of the Philippines has taken
| another sum of $20,OOU,OO0 from the Amerl-
| can credits abroad. The consideration OF
| all these items reduced the apparent cred
| itor balance in favor of the United States to
about s234 100000, and part of this was
| probably covered by the return of securities
| during 1897. While the United States is
| still in strong position, therefore, the bal
| ance of credits in Europe is not so large as
| might be indicated upon the face of the
| merchandise imports and exports.
| Effect of Larger Purchases Abroad.
| 1t is anticipated at the treasury that the
commercial balance will fall to something
| like normal figures during the next fiscal
year. because of the increased purchasing
| power Of the United States resulting from
| improved business conditions. If the an
| nual debt to other countries on account of
| interest on securities, freight charges and
similar items is s17O, 100000, then the United
States must show at least this excess of
exports in order TO maintain an even bal
ance. The record of the last four months
leaves a balance of this amount unlm-
paired, but large purchases of foreign pro-
| ducts may reduce it during the autumn.
The downward tendency of the merchan-
disc balance of exports did not become
marked until February, when the amount
was $33, $50, 199, compared with SAL ,S42,-
SO4 in February, 1898. March showed
decline in the export balance from sol ,0JS,
H..
$45,36S 406 to SOB 14565S. and May, from
S57 ,69S7S4 to 81, 7O4 SCI Accepting the
record for the last two months repre-
senting present tendencies and making al
lowance for the small excess of silver
ports over gold imports, there would be an
average excess of exports of about 81, 900
600 per month, or s2SS, 100000 per year An
allowance of $170,Wb0,0O for the standing
debt due abroad would still leave an ex-
cess of American credits at the rate of
$11S,ooOo0 per year. 1t is highly probable.
however, that the growing tendency to
purchase luXurieS abroad out of surplus
earnings will reduce the export balance and
perhaps wipe out the margin of American
credits abroad.
Imports of merchandise into the United
States increased from SCI ,562 1873 for March,
1898, to $12S2o, TAG for March, 1899 from
$oo,946, 40 in April, 1898, to $65 3D. in
April, 1899 and from 500, 651 in May
1898, to $40, 131 62S in May, 1899. The aver
age importations of merchandise for the
last three months would indicate importa-
tons for complete year of $S32 600 900
an amount which has been only twice sur
passed in the commercial history of the
| country. This was in 1891, when the i'm
ports were Ssh, 916, 1856, and in 1893, when
the imports were $S66, 40O,922. The posi-
ton of the United States is much stronger
at the present time than in those years
because of the greatly increased volume
of exports. The exports of 1891 were only
1854, 4SO,S1O and those of 1893 $S47, 665 1874.
while the exports of 1898 We're 81. 231 49, $3.50
and those for eleven months of the present
| fiscal year have been 81, 49, 629,572
Increased Demand for Raw Materials
One important indication of the increased
strength of the financial position of the
United States is the character of the i'm
port trade. The revival of commercial pros
perity, affording a surplus of purchasing
power, would naturally be followed by the
purchase of articles of voluntary use and
luXures. This was the case during the ten
months ending with April, to the extent
that the imports of these articles increased
from $66, 130, 200 in 1893 to S76,91O, sos for
1888, but there was also marked increase
in the purchase of articles in crude con-