The times., 1899-08-03

The Department of Agriculture has COM
tleted its investigation into the damage
aone the Texas cotton crop by the food in
The Brazos Valley, but it is guarding its
findings carefully. The expert sent to
Texas by the department has just returned
10 the city and is now preparing his report
for special bulletin to be issued in a few
days. 1t is stated at the Office of John
Hyde, Statistician of the Department, that
Il may be issued this week, but will prob
ably be held TO appear simultaneously with
the monthly crop report of August 10.
The report will be awaited with much in
terest by persons familiar with the cotton
situation and the market, as the imme-
diate speculative price of cotton is likely
10 be influenced out of all proportion to
the actual damage done. as Is usually the
tase with speculative prices under similar
circumstances. The facts about the cotton
crop in the inundated region are that it is
usually of poor quality and that even if
the more liberal estimates of the damage
done are realized the effect on the total
cotton yield will be Insignificant.
The present outlook for the cotton crop
is undoubtedly most favorable. Experts
are chary about making concrete predlc-
tions as yet, but general expectation of IA
big yield is manifest among planters and
traders and on the other side. The weekly
Weather Bureau report is considered to be
optimistic, though not enthusiastic, and its
effect on the market yesterday was to push
down prices from three 10 five points. Pre-
dictions are made that the monthly re-
port, TO be issued by the Bureau of Sta
tistics on August 10, will also be favorable.
The effect of these matters and of the fact
that the movement of new cotton will il
a short time assume large proportions has
been a gradual decline of price in the
staple. What the low price of the year
will be is still, of course, an unknown
quantity, dependent on too many factors
yet TO be developed even 10 be surmised
with any show of reason. 1t cannot be
doubted, however, that there is the large
possibility of the lowest price on record,
lower than the extreme level of last year,
being reached.
large cotton factor of Liverpool who
recently returned from an extended trip
through the South said TO a Times re-
porter a few days ago: Il would not be
surprised at cent cotton. The crop will
be between 10000, coo and 100000 bales,
and there is an immense surplus untouch-
ed from last years gigantic yield. These
facts cannot be ignored, even when the
Manchester cotton manufacturers are
doing an immense business. The farmers
will not learn wisdom from experience and
they are likely to pay dearly for their
folly In growing cotton everywhere again
after such a crop as that of last year"
Such views are regarded as extreme by
most people on this side of the water,
however, even by those who expect 10 see
much lower prices than those now ruling
The prices OF cotton futures last year on
August 2 were as follows: September,
5.s7-5.el; October, 5.92-5.9e; November,
5.96-5.ss.
Yesterdays falling prices for the same
months ranged as follows: September,
5.51-5.52; October, 5.69-5.66; November,
5.73-5.7O.
It will be seen that cotton is now thirty
points lower than it was a year ago. The
price last autumn went TO the lowest level
on record, trifle below 5 cents for two
of the future months. II does not seem
probable 10 cotton people generally that
with the new crop now being harvested
and promising TO be well above 100000
bales at least, and with the immense sur
plus from last year. that the range of
prices during the next three months viii
be any more favorable than the range In
the same months last year. II the decline
in August September, and October is as
large as the decline was in the same
months OF 1898 the price in October will
be from 40 cents upward for cotton fu-
lures In October.
The present cash price for cotton for the
different grades ranges from 3-4 cents TO
7l-4 cents on basis of s is cents for
middling upland. The total visible supply
is over $500 900 bales, as compared with
100000 bales last year. OF this amount
2,30e 900 bales is American cotton, COM
pared with 100000 last year. The visi-
bic supply has thus increased half mil
lion bales over last year. The increase
over the year 1896 at this time is million
bales or more.