The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1899-10-30

tIOSe To the Dehu :" TN a
Reserve of Only Million and u
Half Dollars.
NEW YORK, Oct 29-Henry Clews'
weekly stock letter says: During the
past week there has been q somewhat
improved tone, both in lending circles
and In the speculative markets. In tho
money market the recovery is not so
much from any change In the intrinsic
financial position as from feeling that
we must very soon work out of the fall
stringency which has this year been SO
sharp and so protracted. AS a fact.
however. there has not yet been any
real relief in the bank reserves and no
material abatement in the outflow of cur
rency to the interior: the only real re-
lief in the situation comes from the
easier tendency in the foreign exchanges
and the diminished probability of ex-
ports of gold, which Is quite an impor-
tant gain for the prospective loan mar
ket. Under these circumstances opera
tors conclude that the return of money
from the interior is now the only condi-
ton precedent to easier money, and taxi
ing it for granted that the reflux move
ment can hardly be more than few
days distant, they deem 1t safe to in
crease their purchases of stocks in prep
aration for the boom which almost
everybody seems to be expecting for a
later stage.
Still, it may be well to entertain mod
crate expectations as to the rate or re-
covery in the money market. Unusual
increases in the reserves will be needed
before really free lending can be rea-
sonably expected, especially as the
wants of borrowers are much larger
than ever before and the loans and dis
counts have been curtailed by $75,OOOOOO
since the middle of July and yet are
now nearly $50, O00, 900 more than a year
ago. AS a rule the city banks are now
working on the verge Of the dead line,
the surplus shown in the last weekly
statement being only 81, 44O,Voo Inc
surplus at the corresponding date Of late
years has been as follows: Oct. p, 1898,
S23 400 GOO; Oct. %, 1897, So, 800 COO; Oct. a.
1885, SIS, 100000: Oct 20, 1885, $l6 900;
Oct. 20, 1894, $62, 500 900; Oct. o. 1888, S42,-
600 900; average six years, $3O,5OOOOO.
Thus, for the last six years, the sur
plus reserve during the latter nall OF
October averaged $50. SOC. 900; from which
IT follows that the present surplus mas
to rise nearly thirty millions before II
can compare with the average OF the
last six years. 1t is not TO De sup
posed that we shall suddenly leap to
such an increase in the reserves. We
had less than $15OO0.000 surplus at the
beginning Of July, before the interior
drain set in, and with the extraordinary
activity of business in all sections OF the
country it at least does not seem very
likely that the fall refux of lawfui
money will exceed the sum we nave
parted with during the last three months.
It Is to be expected that, tollo"lnS th7
recent large contraction of loans, the:e
viii he a sharp increase in the local
demand for bank accommodations, with
q corresponding addition to the amount
of reserve requirements; on the olher
hand, the augmented volume OF BUSINESS
at the interior will tend to Keep money
back from the New York banks; anu
thus. between the two currents, we may
quite possibly find money quite actlVe
for some time to come w netneI SUI
a state Of the market would drive the
c,,rrs,,f large foreign trade balance to
compel us to draw upon Europe FOR goId'
# ia impossible to PREJUDICE In the pres
ont disturbed condition of European pol
itics and finance. That. however seems
to afford the only chance for our escapN
l-g q continuance of the present money
pressure for some time to come " hils,
therefore, there is no visible reason iot
apprehending any return 10 tHe leC go
severe scarcity Of money, yet neither
can we at present foresee the point at
which borrowing will become SO easy
as TO warrant unrestrained Dull spec
nations While these indications are
far from being encouraging TO the sell
ing of stocks. and while they fairy per
NIT purchases at current compardtiFeiy
low prices, yet prudent speculation WIZ
not lose sight of the evidences that tn0
position of affairs still remains d" u'
settled one. ANGLO
The situation introduced by the Anglo
Roer war Is still far from exempt from
adverse possibilities that may neeu cum
stant watchfulness at this center Inere
q H+tle question about England aphlty
to finance the war without occasion ol
much disturbance to her markets ana heI
investments, nor can there be secono
oninIon about her bringing the suusSie
TO a speedy close when all her iolce'
have been landed at the scene Of con-
hict Apprehension, ho"eVer' Tba
tnrn,np to a quite different direction. lhs
question is whether the long stanoiils
jealousy against Britain III
nerial mower may not lead to COLI
spiracy, notably between Russia anu
France for checkmating English prog
ress. Although there is much talk III Su
rope on this possibility and the air Is Iui1
of rumors about preparations Ior inter
position by those two governments, yet
there is perhaps more surmlse thah pun
nose In the matter The event would be
much moe likely if he position OF the.
dual. DO .ers were as faVrrahle to such
q venture as their disposition undoupteo-
w is 1t may be taken fer granted that
such q quarrel. if undertaken, would de-
velon into a great European struggle;
and there are apparently insuperable rea-
sons why neither Russia nor France
should assume such momentous reSpoh-
sibilities Russia Is in sharp hnahcla.
straits and is likely to remain so until
bar Siberian railroad Is completed and her
position in Manchuria is consolidated
She could not offer defiance to England 8
navy without imperiling all she has won
and all she Is planning for in China and
the Northern Pacific. She Knows better
than to expose her great immature
schemes in Eastern China to the over
hauling of the open-door powers III
possible concert between them. FRANCE
would not take the risk OF a struggle
that would in all probability close .Ile
doors of her great exposition and pilhS
nonuIar displeasure on the government
for running that splendid display OF
French enterprise. In the absence OIL
any special reasons for interVenuon'
with so many arguments of convenience
against it, and with the possibility Oh
both powers coming out on the Wrons
side after a. life and death struggle II
seems incredible that either or these
powers should commit the folly attriouteu
to them by current rumor. couraseous
prophet would perhaps take little FISK III
predicting that, six months hehce, eno
TransvaaI war will be out of the way
and assigned to its shelf in history