New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1899-02-04
THE CROPS or 1898.

Secretary Wilson may be congratulated on
having issued crop report which will prob
ably be regarded by the trade as nearer the
truth than any other issued by his Department
for about six years Few have appreciated the
difficulties with which he has had TO contend,
the almost universal decentralization OF the re-
porting and official force which took place main
" under his predecessor though begun earlier,
or the continuing influence Of farmers organ
izatons TO affect markets by understatcments
of acreage and Weld Some Idea Of the mag
nitudc of errors thus caused may he formed
from the fact that the final report Of the six
wheat crops ending with that OF 1897 were de-
monstrably 5OOOOOOGO bushels less than the
quantity distributed and consumed. and that
the first report of the Department in September
last indicated yield Of 5Si. 100000 bushels. al
though traders estimates all ran close TO 100
100000 bushels. and tha Departments final re-
port now makes the Weld 67514S705 bushels,
and the acreage 44.O5527S. Others will hope,
AS the Secretary certainly does that his future
reports may not indicate 0000o00O bushels
less Weld in September than in January
While this official report is undoubtedly more
nearly correct than any other for a long time,
It probably falls little short Of the actual
July has been nearly 100000 bushels; the
quantity required for seed last year probably
much underestimated because the estimate of
acreage was far too low. can as yet only be
Professionally placed at the same figure, G2.OOO.-
600 bushels; the quantity required for CON
sumption. with a population Of 75,330.0OO Jan
uary |. would be about J1,5l0,0OO bushels, and
the exports to January % have been 149,o0o,0o0
o1,oftf
bushels for replenshmcnt of supplies. which
were drawn remarkably low last summer, ana
of the stocks usually carried over by farmers
and for exports during the next five months
As these exports run over 2Oo00o00 bushels
a month and show no signs of dlmlnut0n' u
would seem probable that supplies yet on hand
must be somewhat larger than the official re
port would Indicate or else Western receipts
from farms would begin 10 show marked
decrease such receipts still continue to ex-
coed those Of year ago having been l'29o-
257 bushels in four weeks of January, against
10000 o53 bushels last year, although the aver
age price for the month n year ago was lol."3
cents. and this year has been only 7S46 cents
a bushel at New-York.
While such data indicate that the CONNER
c,al estimate Of about 700.OOo,O0o bushels may
yet prove more nearly correct than the official
estimate II IS 10 be said that the Governments
estimate as to corn has probably been more
nearly correct than others lis first report IN
November Indicated a yield Of 1,H6O~"oo
bushels. and its final statement gives 1.92i,-
1860 bushels as the crop OF lNlN. showing
that scarcely any evidence Of error in IFS
earlier report has reached the Department IN
nearly three months. Without exceptionally
high prices-for last weeks average. about ~
cents. though higher than in 1897 or 1896 was
lower than in almost any year OF the previous
tcn-the enormous exports continue TO this date
with scarcely any abatement. If stocks on
hand were not aS large rs the official report
would indicate. either higher prices or a smaller
movement would naturally result. hut receipts
NJ the West in January were 22,5l0.792 bushels
in four weeks. against 15@7l3S4 bushels last
year.
The Weld Of oats Is now officially recorded
Mt 80. so. 6l3 bushels. an increase of 2I,"OoO~
bushels from the November indication When
If is realized how greatly that crop exceeds
those Of most previous years as does the crop
Of wheat. and the cotton crop appears the great
est OIL record while corn is below the maximum
and vet above the yield Of most previous years,
tho exceptional success Of agriculture In con
trlbuting TO the general prosperity may he in
part appreciated. II has been a year Of pros
pcrity for the farmer in spite of prices lower
on the whole. and much lower for wheat than
those of the previous year. which extlnsu'Shed
farm mortgages by the thousand. II IS not in
such times as these that discomfort and vlclous
political hcreses spread in farming States. even
if production much exceeding visible demand
for some crops does cause low prices Nor *
It to he forgotten that a great part of the re-
duction I'm prices at New-York during the last
twenty years has been due 10 decrease IN the
cost Of transportation. which has perhaps been
greater during tn" last year than before. owing
TO the widespread prevalence Of cut rates
Prices received by the farmers. rs the report
of the Department will probably show. have
by no means fallen in proportion to the decline
in quotations here.