The sun., 1899-09-26

they called out old men and boys. Much,
therefore, depends on the decision reached
by the Volksraad OF the Orange Free State,
now sitting at Bloemfontein. II the reports
from Cape Town can be trusted, the Orange
Free State intends to call out It's whole force
for cooperation with the Transvaal, should
England declare war against the latter
republic. As there are more Beers in tho
Orange Free State than in the Transvaal
the combined armies might number 45, 900
men; a higher total, indeed, Is given by
some estimates. No doubt, fraction Of
these would have to be detached for the
maintenance OF order among the aborlgines
and to v,rt an insurrecton In Johannes
burg; there would still be left, however
about 40, 600 men to meet the British.
In respect OF the number actually ready
for battle, therefore, the combatants would
be equally matched and remembering
the proofs OF skill and bravery given
by the Beers In their war for independence,
and the capture OF the Jameson raiders We
cannot take for granted that they would be
beaten easily. Should the British COM
mander encounter q serious reverse, he
would need large reenforcements, both to
retrieve his position In the Transvaal and to
deal with the revolt, which, in the event sup
posed. almost certainly would break out in
the Cape Colony. To provide such reGn-
forcements the reserves would have to be
called out In England. and second draft
would have to be made on the British army
In India, a draft that might be borne in
quiet times but not IL there were any pros
pect Of Russian aggression, or Of mutiny
among the native troops.
Suppose that a reverse suffered in the
Transvaal, General Lord KITCHENER should
be defeated in the Soudan by the Khalifa
ABDULnAHI who Is said to have collected u
formidable force. England would then
need additional soldiers on the Nile and,
certainly, would have none to spare to
protect either Tripoli or Morocco from the
French. By means OF her fleet, no doubt,
she could defend those countries against
any other European power; but France.
having bases Of supply in Tunis and
Algeria, could effect the conquest Of
North Africa in spite Of England's naval
ascendancy.
There has been. to be sure an assumption
current ever since the Congress Of Berlin
that Tripoli and It's dependency. Barca.
would fall eventually, to Italy. Until
Italy's debt, however, can be converted at
a lower rate Of interest, her financial con-
dition would not justify her in mourning
the cost Of opposing French designs In
North Africa, and the terms Of her alliance
with Germany would preclude her from
doing 30 against the wish OF Emperor
W1LLIAM II. As for Morocco the country
that would be most aggrieved by
French conquest Of that Sultanate would be
Spain, which now recognizes her sole re-
naming field for national expansion in the
region south OF the Straits OF Gibraltar.
Spain, however. would beunable to obstruct
French plans by force, and she can no
longer expect to exert any moral influ-
ence in Paris, now that she has repudiated
the Cuban bonds. There would be nothing,
in a word, to prevent the French from
acquiring Morocco, provided the German
Emperor were favorable to the scheme,
and provided England were too deeply in
volved In South African troubles to inter-
pose. 1t Is obvious. nevertheless, that. II
the French gained possession OF the whole
seacoast OF North Africa, from the Atlantic
to the desert that separates Barca from
Egypt England's control Of the short route
to India by way Of the Suez Canal would be
seriously threatened.
1t Ia strange that Englishmen seem not to
contemplate the possibility of being beaten
in the Transvaal, although they suffered
five defeats in 1SsO-s1, and although the
Jameson raiders were captured to a man by
half their number of Beers. In view of the
grave consequences, not only In South
Africa but elsewhere, that might follow a
reverse, 1t would be well for them to pause
and calculate whether the difference between
seven years and five years residence. con-
sidered as condition OF naturalization. Is
worth the risk OF war, in which not only
the reputation OF British soldiers but, per-
hsps, the control Of the Mediterranean,
would be at stake.