The sun., 1899-08-17
VIII the Plague Reach Europe e?

The London Times lately published let
ter from Mr.. E. FREsHFIELD. in which was
mooted the question whether the present
outbreak Of the plague in Alexandria 10
likely to be followed by visitation Of the
disease in southern Europe, and, even-
tually. in England. The writer's qualifloa-
tions for treating the subject are based on
his acquaintance with Smyrna, which has
repeatedly suffered from attacks Of the
pestilence during the present century. The
letter has caused q good deal Of discussion
in English medical journals
It seems that the bubonic plague has
been brought to Smyrna sometimes from
Constantinople, and, at other times, from
Egypt. To Constantinople the disease
usually came from Trebizond through
Persia, and was, consequently northerly
wave. To Smyrna, on the other hand, the
plague ordinarily came from Egypt, fol-
lowing the course which 1t has now pur-
sued. The fact should be noted that, when
the malady came from Constantinople
to Smyrna, 1t was sporadic, but, when
it came from Alexandria to Smyrna
it was epidemic. In all cases, the
pestilence began In the late autumn or early
winter. and lasted until the heat OF sum
mer. Rarely In Turkey have the ravages OF
the plague continued beyond the middle or
end OF July, and their intensity has gener-
ally diminished before that time. This
eeems to be the case now in Alexandria,
and. for this reason, Mr.. FREsHFIELD be-
lieves that there will not be severe vlsi-
tation OF the plague in that city this year
He expresses tho apprehension. however,
that It will become epidemic next year In
Alexandria, as it has become In Bombay,
Hong Kong and. Kurrachee. He thinks
that, possibly, It will not spread over the
basin OF the Mediterranean before the year
after next, so there is no immediate danger.
Recurring TO the visitations OF the
plague, from which England suffered be-
tween 1888 and 1865. Mr. FREsHFIELD
points out that their proaress across Eu-
rope could be traced and that all OF them,
except one, came by the northern route,
and not from Alexandria. This fact leads
him to doubt whether the disease which has
shown itself in the Egyptian seaport will
reach England, even though it should visit
southern Europe. He omits to recognize
that, while there was scarcely any direct
intercourse between England and Egypt in
the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries.
there is now Great deal OF Immediate in.
accommodation. or an approach of the
plague to Europe by the northern route
from Trebizond. there Is as yet no sign,
though the statement that tho disease Is at
Buahlrc Is ominous.
When the pestllenco did visit England,
its relation to the seasons was the reverse
Of that which Is observed in Smyrna. In
London, the hubonio plague generally
showed Itself IN June or July, though some,
times earlier, and increased in intensity un,
til September. 1t gradually died away In
November and December, the cold OF Eng,
land taking the place OF the heat OF more
southern countries in temporarily stopping
the pestilence. Should the disease come
again to England, there seems to be no rea.
son why it should not follow the same
course that 1t pursued in tho sixteenth and
seventeenth eenturies, so far as its relation
To the seasons and as its duration art
concerned. In the plague OF l592-9S, the
visitation began in the first year; then II
died away, broke ont again In 1898, but did
not recur. Tho visitation az 1909 lastet
for one year only, That of 1925 was con
fined to that year. but there was n recur
rene" OF II in 1890, and. thereafter, IL WA,
intermittent for about twenty years. L
then disappeared until 1885, when IL per
sisted until the winter. and thereupon alto
Gsther Vanished. There seems to hav