The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1899-10-04

be prolonged2 There is a large and grow
ing section OF the English people which
believes that, under the Convention OF 1884,
their country has no right to interfere with
the internal government OF the South Afri-
can Republic. The influence OF such opin-
ions would be immensely increased IL, for
a considerable time, the large sums OF
money voted should be expended In vain
and II the sole immediate result should be
humiliation and repulse.
That was the lesson OF our own war
for Independence From the skirmish at
Lexington until after the surrender OF
CORVALLIS an interval Of nearly seven
years, Lord NoRTHs Ministry had immense
maiorltes in the House of Commons. New
ertheees. I. IVES beaten in the end by the
party which preferred peace, even at the
cost OF the ACKNOWLEDGMENT of the British
Empire. The Beers, in other words, have
many friends in England itself, and the mo
ment the burdens OF an unjust war take the
shape OF increased taxation, those friends
may become preponderant. 1t was, there
fore, manifestly the part of wisdom not to
provoke a war with the Transvaal until
England was prepared to strike sudden
and overwhelming blow.
1t will scarcely be alleged that such wis
dom has been exhibited by Mr.. CHAMBER
LAIN. England is far from being prepared
to coerce the Transvaal. She has not over
10000 troops, all told, in South Africa, a
part of which must be retained in the Cape
Colony for the purpose Of preventing an
uprising of the Afrkander element Some
time must elapse before the whole OF the
10000 additional soldiers, despatched from
India, can be landed In South Africa. AS
for the army corps OF $4,000 or 10000
men, which was to be sent from England,
nobody conversant with the state Of things
in the British War Office really believes
that the expedition will reach its destination
within two months.
Who will say that grievous reverses may
not be suffered by the British arms within
the next sixty days? Tho Beers, massed
on the eastern frontier Of the Transvaal,
already outnumber by more than two to
one all the British troops at present avail
able for the defence of Natal. Suppose that
the latter should suffer the fate which their
countrymen experienced in 18S0-S1: In
that event, the reinforcement coming from
India would be too weak for forward
movement. and might have hard work to
defend itself.
Moreover, striking successor the part
of the Transvaal and the Orange Free State
at the outset Of the struggle would almost
certainly double their strength in the field
through accessions from the Afrikander
element in the Cape Colony. In that event,
the army corps sent from England, when it
should manage to reach the Cape, would
have to be broken up; only a part Of it
could be sent on to Natal; the rest would
have to be kept in the Cape Colony for gar
rison duty at important points and to
avert a general instruction OF the Afri-
Handlers against British rule Thus, neces-
sarily split into divisions, the army corps
might be beaten in detail and England
might be called upon for a greater military
effort than she has had to make since the
Crimean War.
1t is doubtful, to say the least, whether
Parliament would sanction such an effort
The Liberals would see their opportunity
and good many Conservatives might be
willing to evince their distrust Of Mr..
CHAMBERLAIN and their disgust at the out
come of what they deem a stock-jobbing
and gold-grabbing war. by voting against
the Salisbury Government, or by refusing
to vote at all. Especially would this be the
case If the unexpected prolongation of the
contest should require a considerable in
crease of the income tax.
We arrive, then, at this conclusion:
While the Beers could not look forward to
ultimate triumph If the British Empire
were automatically governed, they may
reasonably hope to create diversion
favorable to their cause in the British
Parliament itself, should they be able to
beat the British forces piecemeal in series
OF preliminary battles.