The Saint Paul globe., 1899-03-20
PIT LACKS LEADERS
WEEK OF COMPARATIVE DULL
NESS AND IRREGULARITY IN
PRICES THE RESULT
REACTION TO BE ANTICIPATED
Sustained Upward Turn to Prices
Until There Has Reen a Down
ward Movement, in the Opinion
of Henry Clevs-NO Immediate
Important Drop, However, Likely.

4
NEW YORK, March 9-(Special) y
Henry Clews' stock letter this week is as
follows:
With some exceptions Wall street has
had another week Of comparative dull
ness and irregularity in prices; and in
| many respects, it has perhaps been less
| satisfactory to the bears than to the
bulls. So far as respects speculative or
ganization, excepting In few specialties
| the bull side lacks some important ele-
ments Of strength. 1t is for the time be
ing without spirited leaders. A large
| number OF that class, with their usual
sagacity, have some time since unloaded
| and the present holders of their stocks
/ are principally more sanguine and less
| experienced operators who are unwilling
to sell on a weakened market and too
readily yield to whatever symptoms may
seem to suggest some possibility of an
| Improvement In values. They set their
| selling figure little above the market
| In the hope that their price may be
| reached in some lucky squirt; and when
prices go down they refuse to believe the
! drop will prove permanent. Thus they
| fail to get rid of their unpromising load.
| On the other side are the acute and ex-
| per1enced professional bears, who know
| now to adapt their attacks to the mo-
mentary aspects of the situation
| AT the present moment it is not their
| policy to attack in force; they prefer to
weary out their opponents by harassing
guerrilla tactics; prepared to put out
| their strength when they have dispirited
the enemy and made them timid This
is rather slow process of warfare, but
it usually proves ultimately effective.
Experienced operators above all keep in
mind two fixed principles in speculation;
nrst, that when prices have reached a
high level, there should be no hesitation
to realize, and If there are good many
sangu1ne novices who are thinking that
the bull forces will carry the market still
higher, the reasons for selling are all the
better; and, second, that, when this re-
alizing has taken effect, there is an end
to successful bulling until prices have
fallen to level at which they will ap-
pear cheap In the eyes of the speculative
interest. The stock market can only fol-
low the direction given to it by the larger
and more experienced operators: and
when that class have exchanged their Sc
cur1tles Tor cash, those who have assum-
ed their responsibilities must face the
tender mercies of the bruins as best thew
| may.
The plain conclusion from all this is
that, judging from the common run of
experience, there is little ground for ex-
pect1ng another sustained upward turn
of prices until there has been some down.
ward reaction; the logic of which is that
the present is better time for realizing
than Tor buying. AT the same time, there
Is no very apparent reason for expecting
any immediate important drop There
are so manV pip footorc i,, ~, =
general business situation that, although
those factors may not justify buying un-
der the existing speculative situation.
yet they may be expected to induce hold
ers with good backing to cling to their
stock perttnaciousy. That sort of cling
ing amounts to quite important resist
ance to any declining tendency, and there
is no saying how long it may defer the
| fall-1 In prices that on ordinary principles
may be expected to occur before there
can be any well sustained effort to start
up another bull campaign all along the
line.
There are, however, some minor in
fuences. which may be expected to, in
some measure, encourage selling The
money market is momentarily stiffened
through unusual causes, including the
very large transfers of funds connected
with the Chicago & Alton DEAL which
has put up the rate of interest to 405
per cent during the week. This special
factor, of course, will soon lose it's eff
feet; but in two weeks more another
intrusion may be expected in connection
with the withdrawals of money to the
country for the annual April settlements.
This is factor which must be credited
with some deterring effect for the next
three weeks. Also the immense creations
of new trust organizations may prove
to have some influence at the chief mon
ey center. Among the owners Of the
hundreds Of millions of industrial capital
thus being reorganiZed, there must be
some who will be diverted from partici-
pat1ng In the ordinary operations of
Wall street, and there may be others
who find 1t convenient, under these con-
ditions, to convert their investments into
cash. In any event, as it appears to be
general with these new organizations to
provide themselves with very liberal
working capitals. it becomes a question
whether money may not be withdrawn
from this center to the local banks
which, In various parts of the country.
will do part Of the financing for the
trusts.
Thursdays experience, however, shows
that, notwithstanding such facts and
forces as are above referred to, there
may occur spurts of activity which re.
veal remarkable underlying confidence
and strength. Venturous leaders of spec
ulation have ventured to test the elias
tic1ty of the industrials and, finding an
encouraging response and at the same
time an exposed Short interest, they
were able to force an advance of %
points In American Sugar. The squirt i'm
parted better feeling to the railroad
list and advanced prices Y to point on
the more active stocks. The days opera
t1ons We're victory for the bulls, which
is likely to make the bears more pru-
dent. 1t remains to be seen how far this
revival may run. L see at present no rea-
son to regard 1t as anything more than a
temporary variation from the direct line
of descent to which the market seems
destined. There may quite probably be
other like oscillations before the gen
eral market adjusts itself to the tenn
porary changed condition of the money
situation
The government trade returns for Feb
ruary again show a large excess of ex-
ports over imports, the surplus being
$33, g., 900. This is $S,21S 600 below the sur
plus OF February, $685. and it is deserv-
Ing to notice that the decrease is due,
to the extent of 81, 900, to an increase in
the imports. 1t would not be surprising
II the imports Should continue to show
an increase; for the prevailing national
prosperity may reasonably be expected to
cause an Increase in the consumption of
foreign goods as well as domestic. For
the first eight months of the current f1s-
cal year, the exports of merchandise ex-
ceeded the imports by $416 277, 600, which
is S3,Sl6,0Oo below the surplus for the same
period of 1898. The exports as against
imports will be matter of vast impor-
tance In the future, and require to he
watched closely by Wall street operators
with scrutinizing eye. 1t must be re-
|