The times., 1899-08-20
CLHNS ON: PROSPERITY
Business Activity, Great Crops, and
Railway Earnings.
The Financier Says Basis Is Being
Laid by Current Conditions for an
Active stock Market and Con-
siderable Rise in Prices-Greatest
Danger in Excessive Confidence.

New York, Aug. l9.-Henry Clews, IN
his weekly financial letter today, says:
"a good many people are surprised at
the comparative stagnancy of the stock
market in the face of such strong bull
factors as the now certain prospect of
another season of full crops and an un-
precedented rate of railroad earnings and
especially of net earnings. These factors
pass for nothing for the time being; but
it does not follow that no note is being
taken of them for future reference. The
impression seems to be quite general that
a basis is being laid by current conditions
for an active market, and considerable
rise in prices at a later stage. Certain
conditions, however, unite TO make Wig
orous bull movement inopportune Tor the
time being, but increased activity IN the
general market resulting in higher range
of prices may be expected from now on
ward
1T is perhaps many years since there
have been so many absentees from Wall
Street as during the present summer.
Also the local money market is in too
uncertain a condition to encourage exces-
siye bold buying. A surplus OF on-y
IS OO0 900 in the reserves of the Associate
Banks at the beginning of August is mot
a very hopeful factor in prospect OF the
usual outflow of currency to the interior
during the months of August, September,
and October. Indeed, sucn a meagre sur
plus would certainly produce strong re-
dictionary tendency we're it not that the
large accumulation of money at other
banking centres suggests possibility tnat
the drafts of the grain States upon New
York may prove to be materially less than
the former average. And the latest stats
tics ISSUED by the Comptroller of the Cur
rency certainly give considerable counten-
ance TO that probability. The increase in
reserves is general throughout the coun-
try, New York city being the principal ex-
ceptfon.
THE condition of the reserves of the
different classes of national banks in July
has been as follows for the last three
years:
July, 1899. July, 1895. July, 1897
New York, Chi
Louis $255, ,lss 600 s245,el7 600 s2O7 Oh 900
Other reserve -,
cities - SIS. .55s 900 469. 1000 4l0,072,0Oo
Country banks 3s9, ,925 600 $780, 755,oo0 9205 900
This comparison shows that in July the
reserves of the other reserve cities ana
of the country banks combined were
s107. .S9l. 900, or 13 IL per Cent greater than
last year. and $209, ,2Q6. GOO, or q per cent
greater than at the, same month OF 1891.
At New York the increase over last year
is only about per cent. These hgures
show that this city can i'll afford TO part
with any considerable amount OF money
for marketing the crops but they also in
dicate that the interior sts not likely 10
need anything like the amount OF heip
from New York that has usually been
found necessary. -, Sasfs
This probability seems SO plain and
strong that. although it may not be safe
TO count upon it as an absolute certainty,
yet it would at least be- very premature TO
take alarm at the prospect in the present
immature stage OF the season. We may
await the outcome without any acute ap-
prehension; but, at the same time, we may
not calculate upon a really easy money
market for the fall months. This aspect OIL
the situation affords sufficient reason Tor
conservatism for several weeks to come;
but. during that interval, the maintenance
of investment values may safely be left
to the care of the general prosperity OF the
country and of the railroad interest
The whole country, from the Atlantic to
the Pacific, is saturated with optimism; !;
and there is vastly more danger at present
from the results of excessive confidence
than from any other single cause. Now is
the time to be on the alert for injudicious
ventures All sort of visionary schemes
are being, or shortly will be, launched.
There is a strong likelihood, also, of our
dscounting prosperity too rapidly and
inviting an unwelcome setback through
excessive speculation, though We cannot
be said to have yet arrived near that
stage