The Houston daily post. [volume] (Houston, Tex.) 1886-1903, 1899-11-12
Henry M. Nell Caused a Loss of Mil
lions to the South.
Wing Facts and Deity Using Probabilities, He
Has Done Great Harm, but He Is Now Dis.
credited and Can Not Rally.

! as some other estimators were so clearly
y,roosY. But this very fac, proved his de.
In himself and instead OF guarding his esti-
mate as he had formerly done In most cases
he ia,d down his dictum as though It was asa a
decision of the supreme court that could
not be challenged or disputed. He made a
eebr slip @ u sss hs sne he SAID o,on @
already been picked in Texas and some still
remained nnpicked. whereas the report of Mr..
the Indian Territory of only 3,S5o.oo0 bsics,
but this had escaped notice because his total
| was near the truth.
Encouraged by all these facts. he came out
on August IL with his famous proclamation OF
crop better than that of the previous year,
| In this circular Mr.. Neill did not guard him
self as he had done before with IFS" but
spoke with authority. and inGeed burned
| his ships behind Linn. He recited some OF
his previous estimates or suessas which had
| proved correct and then went on 10 say that
! the crop OF last Year would have rcaches H.
| 76o, 600 or 10000 900 but for the iuany losses
due to tie severe winter. lie then said of
{, the present crop:
For the present crop l am satisfied that.
| or the average, the promise per acre is
fully equal, II not superior. to that Of last
year at this date.
1.-The temperature has becn perfect. and
the rainfall generally sufficient and most OPP
perfume. with alterations of fine weather.
SO that the crop is now very far advanced
and so heavily fruted that with ordinary
weather a large crop is assured in every
State.
"Texas. with the exception of the loss in
the Brazos valley (Which will hardly reach
with alternate rain and sunshine, and now
promises the best crop to the acre ever
known.
advanced over the whole country. and the
enormous fruitage will soon make it indie
pendent Of future weather and make great
crop. certain. no matter how early a tros!
should come. We shall doubtless hear of
much shedding; the fruitage is so immense
that no plant could ever carry 1t all to ma
turity.
at must be borne In mind that while the
past crop ds9S-9a) will sum up the largest
on record, its possibilities. but for the dread
full weather of December. January and Fen
ruary, were vastly greater than the crop real
lied. and it is from this vast possibility.
which now exists for this year also thlt
trfing loss from decreased acreage. or any
subsequent deterioration, must be deducted;
This is the estimate which has wrecked MI
Neill as an estimator or guesser. 1t was one
that created some surprise because 1t was
contrary TO expectations and because the facts
did not agree with what Mr.. Neil said
Many complaints had come of drouth and I'M
hear of them. The temperature had been
perfect" the rainfall was generally suf-
fcient." The crop was fully equal. II not
superior to that of last year. and It was SO
very far advanced and heavily fruited that "a
large crop was assured in every State. :"
Texas promised the best crop to the acre
ever known 's''A great crop certain. no mat
ter how early frost should come AS for
shedding 1.-THE fruitaee was so immense that
no plant could ever carry 1t all to maturity
II will be seen that the whole circular insists
on big crop and that no chances of failure
are allowed Mr.. Neill was evidently willing
TO place all "on the hazard of the die
4 His circular created an impression, and kept
cotton from advancing in price as IL seemed
inclined to do but 1t has finally wrecked Mr..
Neil. Many persons looked on MN as q
wonder for the circular was so contrary TO
public reports The English spnners seemed
to believe in it, and held off for q, while; but
since then the facts against him have grown
stronger and more convincing
The report of the agricultural department
was in direct conflict with his circular, so
also the crop reports of the newspapers ana
others. The weather bureau, being request,
ed 10 give the facts as to the weather, and
whether Mr.. NELL was correct in his state
ment that there had been sufhciency OF
rain as Mr. Neil stated, for the newspaper
reports were of drouth throughout Texas;
Louisiana and the Southwest generally, ana
Mr.. Hyde of the weather bureau declared MT
Neill to be mistaken. The latter fought on
to the end against all his critics: He held
to his position: indeed, he could not Wen
retract from it, as he had burnt MS steps
behind him. In q second circular or oetoDe'
After making large allowance for loss by
the Texas drouth ia August September, and
duly weighing all othnr complaints. an
able to state my deliberate opinion as TO the
crop. 1t is, on the whole, exclusively Of
parts of Texas, in highly promising posi-,
ton We have had no frost up to the present
sufficient to iniure it. and. however carly
real killing frcst may come, consider yiclu
OF at least 900. 600 bales certain. ana au-
thorize you to state this definitely as my
:, minimum estimate. The weather continues
perfect for maturing and especially for pick
ing The recent cool snap Is now being sue,
ceeded by a warmer temperature, which,
1t lasts will promote further growth
But Mr. NELL was unable TO accomplish
what he had done before He deilded ne
British spinrers. but his estimate was WIN,
out its influence on the price of cotton 1t had
had before Tho Southern farmers were con
WINGED that It was wrong from the facts before
estimates would have justified; and the re-
ports from the cotton held showed more
clearly day by day this. Mr.. NELL was mis-
These reports nalg oeT sey sent L
their arents In this country for informa
ton. and IT did not gree with the news ina
Mr. NELL had sent them. recently some 20 o
the German consumers NJ cotton VINO wer'
| confused by the contradiction between IN
facts as furnished by Mr.. NELL and BY othe
came nra over herf the situation
They have found that Mr.. NELL was mis-
taken. and they have not nestatea 10 80,
This view w 2, c yef,ne' apd Tor SOM
weeks past facts have been pouring IN n. IRON o.
all directions to crush Mr.'Neill and his COT
ton estimates.
II is now recognized on all sides that b
was mistaken. and badly mistaken, ana ina
IL his false and wholly Incorrect guess as .
the size of the crop had prevailed, and beef
accepted. it would have cost the Southern
farmers many millions of dollars; but II !
. not tho farmer who will suffer from MI
Neills estimate this year, but the Englis
spinners, who were induced to hold off. an
, who will have to pay great deal more 70
, their cotton than they expected, and ina
they would have paid, but for him. In pas
years his reports however Incorrect they ma
, have been have always tended 10 the adyai
, lage OF the buyers and spiuners; and Mr. N.i
I has Dragged Of tho millons his estimate
) saved them even when he was mistaken; by
II they, too, lose from his mistakes. they WI
) scarcely be inclined TO give him furthe
: backing
throughout tho cotton districts OF Louis
> lana there is very marked aud even DUG
r prejudice against Mr.. Nell. who 10 hei
5 personally Responsible for having forced 20
prico of cotton down lower than II shoul
I have been, when the yield OF the season wa
) considered and there is some prejudiee !
{ New Orleans against him on the ground thi
( his estimates are to certain extent injuriou
TO the cotton trade Of the city. Tbs countr
papers denoupcing the NELL estimates seer
0 Inclined to believe that New Orleans Is bsl