The times., 1899-07-08
THE WORLDS WHEAT.
Outlook for the American Crop Com
pared With Prospectx Abroad

III is probable that more people this year
than ever before watch the reports from
the wheat districts of the country, regard
ing the coming crop, and that more read
the accounts Of the condition OF wheat in
other wheat exporting countries II is
acknowledged that the difference between
a fine crop and a failure might almost
mean the difference between prosperity
and duliness and stagnation.
The financial papers every week reit-
crate the statements that everything in the
business situation is full OF activity. The
steel and iron industry. the general de-
mand for merchandise of all " -
beginning of new enterprises v
and cheapness of money the st,
railroad earnings, the large loans made by
the banks all over the country, and even
many increases In wages in the mines and
manufacturing centres, all indicate how
much business is being done and how di-
versifed is the revival. One OF the few
unpleasant possibilities in the outlook has
been that foreshadowed by the early un-
favorable wheat crop reports.
Senator Stewart in a recent interview
spoke of the two years of immense crops
In America and two years of famine in
the remainder OF the world" as the chief
cause OF the present prosperity in America,
from which nearly all the other good
things have sprung directly including the
relative happiness of the people, under
the burden of the present monetary sys-
TEN. Other financial experts have argued
with equal force that two or even one year
OF wheat failure would reverse the entire
tide OF prosperity in the same way
The first reports from the wheat-grow-
ing districts, and especially the winter
wheat sections. were full OF foreboding
The Agricultural Department reports
which are gathered carefully from hun
dreds OF expert correspondents in all parts
OF the country, told OF the very poor con-
dition OF the winter wheat worse than in
any recent year. The unofficial experts
were veritable prophets of disaster, tell
ing of immense areas that would have to
be plowed up and resown, and stating that
in the few instances where any crop would
be raised, 1t would be of poor quality and
a very small yield to the acre.
All the recent reports. therefore. have
been most welcome. Without exception,
they have told of improving conditions.
Several matters are now certain regarding
the crop that were most uncertain, or,
rather. considered almost impossible, two
or three months ago. The winter wheat
crop has not been ruined. 1t is being
harvested in nearly the entire winter
wheat section, anu III SOIlt parts Ol lQt
country harvesting is completed. 1t is ac-
knowledged that this winter wheat crop
will be small one. compared with those
OF year and two years ago, but it can
not be classed as a failure. The acreage
was large, and the yield will not be many
millions of bushels short of the average.
In Oklahoma, there is as good a crop as
ever before, and in many other large sec
uons there is yield of twenty bushels to
the acre.
More than this, the spring wheat crop is
progressing finely, with excellent prospects
of being larger than the average. On this
latest weekly crop report of the Weather
Bureau says OF the wheat situation:
The harvesting of late winter wheat has con,
tinued under favorable weather conditions in the
more northerly sections, the early crop being
mostly in shock in the central valleys and Mid
die Atlantic States Harvesting also continues
in California. In Oregon and Washington wheat
has made favorable progress, especially in the
frstnamed State. The outlook for spring wheat,
at the close OF the previous week, is prom
Using, and the crop is beginning to head in the
southern portion OF the spring wheat region.
There are still several most important
weeks before the question of the crop of
1899 will be answered in full, but the out
look is considered by nearly all of the au-
crop will not be the largest in history, out
it will not be the smallest OF recent years
by any means either. and it will leave an
immense surplus for export. One esti-
male by an authority of international rep
utation is that it will be at least 565, ,U0Q,-
900 bushels, and probably $50 GOO, GOO. The
former figures would allow for only thir-
teen bushels to the acre for the 100000
acres in the area sown. The view of the
farmers themselves is a most important
and interesting one. Ii is very apparent
that they do not expect a small crop.
They are sending their surplus from last
year TO market by the millions OF bushels
until the pessimistic experts" fail utterly
to account for the movement. The 'yis-
ible supply" increases weekly, and the
price of wheat tumbles at its enormous
volume. IL is seen, in fact, that the pre-
vious estimates as TO the size OF last
years crop were far under the real figures.
The surplus from last year will without
doubt make up for any deficiency in this
years yield.
The character OF the foreign wheat crops
is a close second in Importance to that of
the American crop in determining the price
per bushel that the American farmer will
get for his grain. and the value OF the total
American crop. Stated broadly and gener-
ally, the foreign crop situation is less
promising than that of America. There
will not be the entire failures OF crops in
some countries that characterized the two
previous years. and In other countries the
outlook is excellent, but on the other hand
the latest foreign reviews and the cable
reports received from day 10 day show that
the average condition at the present time
is below the normal. while in many sec
tions the crop will be almost a failure.
Tho 10 reduction in the
worlds crop compared with last year.
The reports from Russia are most dis
couraging, though the talk heard at one
time in the spring of Russia being forced
to import this year is now considered as
exaggeraton. II is certain that in nearly
all districts in southern Russia the crop
will show a serious shortage. But these
districts comprise only third OF the total
wheat area of Russia. not to mention ST.
beria.
The Bulgarian crop is almost a total
failure. The Roumanian crop is poor one.
II is now being reaped. There will be moth
ing for export and the Government is
buying grain for the destitute peasants.
Austria Hungary will be forced to import
to limited extent to supply her own
needs, the crop being poor one.
Sweden. Belgium. Germany, and Spain
all report crops below the average. France
will have a fair crop. but a smaller one
than last year France will be an import
er. although the price OF the cereal is now
somewhat less in that country than in
Great Britain.
Statistics of the wheat crop in India are
meagre. but it is certain that 1t will be
below the average.
Argentina and Uruguay apparently will
both have fair crops. though not above the
average 1t is estimated that the Argen-
tina cron viii be 600 600 nmarters of