The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1899-10-26
VIII France and Russia Help the
Transvaalr

1t remains to be seen how much founda-
ton there Is for the assertion attributed to
Dr. LEYDs, the Transvaals agent in Eu-
rope, that France and Russia will not
permit England to annex the Transvaal or
the Orange FREQ State. This may be
rumor invented to explain the fact that
England's military and naval prepare
tions seem out OF proportion to the
prospective exigcncies of the campaign in
South Africa. The Government has not
only called out the reserves OF the regular
army, but also the militia numbering over
100, 900 men, while, on the other hand, the
fleet normally stationed in the British Chan
mel has been ordered to the Mediterranean,
and its place will be filled by putting in com
mission all the cruisers that were modified
for the last manpuvrcs. The impressive
demonstration of Englands strength may
be intended merely as a warning to other
powers not to intervene; but would warn
ing be needed unless there were some
grounds for apprehension?
Why should France and Russia interfere
to preserve the independence of the Boer
republics? Neither of those powers has or
expects to have, any territory in South
Africa. On the other hand, neither of them
has ever been known to enter into war from
purely disintercsted motives. NAPOLEON
III. made VICTOR EMANUEL pay for the as
sstance rendered in 1859 by the cession of
Savoy and Nice. ALEXANDER H., by tho
Russian-Turkish War Of 1918, counted
upon gaining Bulgaria, and did gain Bes-
sarabia. Undoubtedly the rescue OF the
Boer republics from political placement
would be put forward simply rs a pre-
text for striking at vulnerable points in
the British Empire. Among these are
the Nile Valley and India. French troops
could reach the upper waters OF the Nile by
an overland march from West Africa. and
could doubtless rely upon the Khalfa's
cooperation; then, again, it is by no means
certain that French General in our day
might not repeat the exploit of BoNAPARTE,
who succeeded in evadinG NELSON and land
Ing large force in Egypt. AS for India,
II it can be attacked successfully at all by its
Russian neighbors, the present would seem
a favorable conjuncture, for the British
army in India has just been depleted by at
least ten thousand men, and there is no
means of reinforcing 1t with trained white
soldiers, inasmuch as Sir REDvERs BUTLER
is to use in South Africa all the regulars
that England can spare. including even the
reserves.
While, however, the British Empire is
vulnerable, Notwithstanding its prepondcr-
ancc at sea, it by no means follows that
Russia and France would not have more to
lose than to gain by an intervention on
behalf Of the Boer republics. French COM
merce would, undoubtedly, be swept from
-he ocean. and such colonies as France
possesses in the West Indies and in the
Far East would be put In jeopardy Her
warships might be destroyed in a series
of battles, and thus the hundreds OF
millions of dollars expended on her navy
during the last quarter of century
would go for naught. There Is another
argument in favor OF the maintenance OF
peace, which would come homo even more
strongly to the inhabitants of Paris. A
war with England would annihilate the OPP
portunities Of profit offered by the EXPOSE
ton; in fact, no Exposition would be held.
Under the circumstances, it is improbable
that Paris public opinion would tolerate an
interposition at this time on behalf OF the
Beers. Russia has no less powerful reasons
for keeping the peace just now. She can.
not defend her recently acquired posses.
sions In the Far East until the Trans.
siberiQn railroad and its Manchurian branch