The times., 1899-10-09
rae Outlook i'm south Africa.

way TO cooperate with tnelr IelloWS dI
Manila.
Tsie Outlook in South Africa.
Long delay in bringing the disp=te be-
tween Great Britain and its semi-depend-
ent South African State to an issue has SO
complicated the situation that 10 man
can tell what the week may bring forth
News from the immediate theatre OF
trouble. is more OF less fragmentary AMI
conflicting. 1t is reported, but there may
be some doubt as to the fact, that large
force of Beers has withdrawn from the
great laager On the Natal frontier near
Laing's Neck and scattered Eomeward. Ii
this really has happened it may mean one
OF several things. The British Govern
Inent is said to attribute it TO scarcity
Of forage in the Transvaal Natal border
land, and to the weakness and morgan
lied condition Of the Boer commissariat,
conditions which would combine to make
forward movement impracticable. and
the maintenance of considerable body
Of troops as an army of observation, near
ly as much SO.
It is equally supposable that new. and
what the TransTaaI leaders may consider
hopeful, factors in the problem, render it
good lolicy TO abate something of hostile
menace, pending developments. President
Kruger probably is not without hope that
the question of England's rumored deal
with Portugal for the occupation OF Delagoa
Bay may bring the South African quarrel
within the vortex of international politics,
and that the assumed unwillingness Of Ger
many to see that important commercial and
strategic point pass under the control OF a
rival colonial power may lead to some sort
Of Intervention from Berlin. Again, it is
hardly questionable that the manufactured
sympathy for the sister republic in
America Is given a degree of Importance
in the Transysal that it does not possess
The United States Government is not in
the slightest danger of committing the
blendeT ef interference in a quarrel in
Africa which cannot concern il, and in
which. if has any interest at all, it is TO
see justice done TO the four Thousand Amer
iaan OutiaBders who for years have been
oppressed and brEtally trsated by the Dutch
burghers.
Z It is not impossible thet German, and
perhaps other Continental jealousy of
England might lead to an uncomfortable
friction in Europe over DeIagoa Bay; but
that harbor, with all its conveniences as
base of military operations against the
TransvaaI, is not matter Of absolutely
vital necessity to the British, although
there is no room for doubt that its control
would have the effect Of greatly limiting
the duration and probably the losses and
cost CT campaign of invasion having
Pretoria for its objective
What actual value the foregoing con-
siderations may have in the minds of
President Kruger and his advisers, of
course we cannot know at present For
some reason CT other he and they are hest
tating on the brink of Awar, albeit hesita-
ton is manffestly TO the advantage Of
their antagonist The rate at which re-
endorsements are reaching Durham viii
place the British forces in Natal in safe
defensive position by the end OF the week.
II the Beers expect TO score any military
successes, such as may appear 10 them
likely TO increase sympathy Tor their cause
in Europe or elsewhere and so promote
the chances for Intervention, 1t is apparent
that they must strike quickly. II they do
not, the impression that they have lost
the confidence in their ability to make a
successful resistance, which they seem TO
have had fortnight ago, will be much
strengthened, and the idea that they may
submit at the last moment on the best
terms they can secure, may again appear
reasonable.
The Boer President, Council and Voiks-
raad cannot fail to see that, In the alb
sence of active assistance from the Con-
tinental powers. they viii be surely in
vitIng disaster and the extinction Of the
political independence of their State, by
an attack upon the British flag, or by con-
tinued opposition 10 the demands OF the
Salisbury Government They have counted
almost confidently on the known abhor-
renee Of Queen Victoria to war to induce
Her Majesty TO interpose against it. But
the Queen has approved the acts of her
ministers. has summoned Parliament, and
called out the army reserves for service
in South Africa. Certainly by the end of
November. there viii be full army corps
ready for field operations. in addition to
the force already at the Cape, In Natal
and Rhodesia. which. including colonial
/ volunteers and mounted police, must now
amount to thirty thousand men, not
counting the marines and sailors from ten
British warships available for land use in
case OF emergency.
The main question then is, whether the
| Government at Pretoria viii temporize and
wait for such crumbs OF advantage as pro-
fonged delay might bring finally accepting
what 1t can get; or. appeal to the arbit-
rament OF the sword which must involve
| utter destruction, no matter what minor
successes might be achieved in the first
weeks OF hostilities. The events of the
next few days should point to the answer.
which. as yet. Is sealed up in the back OF
the book
The proposition TO unseat the Hon. Brig
! ham u. Roberts, member CT Congress from
| Ctsh, which large number of influential