The free lance. (Fredericksburg, Va.) 1885-1926, 1899-08-10
Defeated Residential Candidates Who
Lost BY Small Margins,

time from the friends of Mr.. Bryan
in regard to the campaign which he
made in 1896 and as TO the narrow
margin by which Mr.. Mckinley car
ried several States. Prominence is
given to the fact that change Of
less than 10 00p votes, properly dis
tributed IN the States Of California,
Delaware, Indiana, Kentucky, Oregon
and West Virginia would have given
Bryan the election. 1t might be as
sumed, from the earnestness with
which those Immediately concerned
in Mr.. Bryan's success have been
urging this fact as q reason why he
should be renominated, that they
hope, by devoting themselves partl-
cularly to the States mentioned, to
secure the necessary $4,000 votes and
thus elect him.
Regardless of the fact that the Re.
publcans will exert themselves as
much to retain these votes as the
Democrats to secure them the task OF
winning the six States carried by Me
Kinley by such a small margin Is
greater than it appears, and the
magnitude Of the undertaking should
be correctly estimated before even
the most enthuisstic friends of Mr..
Bryan make any calculations based
on these States giving their vote TO
him in 1900. From almost the earli-
est period of our national history the
same tendency has been noted on the
part of the defeated party to solace
itself with the thought that change
of few votes in certain States would
have given it the election, while the
same fact is always pointed out by
the successful party as a cause of
apprehension concerning the result
of the next election.
If the electoral returns for nearly
all the Presidential elections in the
history Of the United States are ex-
amined it will be found that to affect
the slight change in the States carried
by small margins it would have re-
auired causes powerful enough to
have similarly affected the other
States, and that the same reasons
which would have caused the $4,000
men who voted for Mckinley in 1896,
and whose votes would have altered
the result, would have been equally
urgent and powerful with some 3OO,-
900 of their fellow-citizens.
Mckinley was the first candidate
since 1872 to receive a clear majority
of the popular vote. Since the time
of Polk, the first President to enter
the White House without majority
of the popular vote, there have been
but i've elections where the success
full candidate secured a majority of
the popular vote. The FIVE excep-
tions were Pierce, Lincoln (lS64
Grant at both elections and MeKin.
ley. Hayes and Benjamin Harrison
we're elected without even plurality
With Mckinley securing such large
popular majority, as well as an elec-
toral majority, the defeat of Bryan in
1896 cannot be regarded but as over
whelming.
In calculating on the change of a
few thousand votes in the States
mentioned it should not be over
looked that FIVE of the six were
wrested from the Democrats, who
carried them in 1892. All elections
resemble one another in this-that
the majority of the winning party is
Increased in the States which 1t
usually carries; the majority OF the
losing is reduced in States which It
claims as its own, and in the doubt
ful States the winning party secures
its electoral vote over the efforts OF
the opposition. These changes are
all in the same direction, the change
of votes from the losers to the win
ners.
To haye carried Indiana in 1896
the Democrats should have polled
SIP Of the votes which were cast for
Mckinley. This mum Der is 2 7 per cent
of the total Republican vote of the
State and 29 per cent. of the total
Democratic vote. A similar change
in every State would have reduced
McKinley's plurality in the country
to $50, 900. Estimating on the basis
of a sufficient change to have enabled
Bryan to carry Delaware, if the per
centage was maintained throughout
the country, Bryan would have re-
oaived q nluralitv of more than 600
900, to say nothing of an overwhelm
ing vote in the electoral college. The
fact that 10000 votes or 10000
votes, or any other number, might,
if properly distributed, have turned
the election from Mckinley to Bryan
has no significance when considered
from the standpoint of practical pol
itics, however interesting it may be
as a basis for political speculation,
and in the next campaign will have