New-York tribune., 1899-12-31
finanfial.
The Financial World.

cle nrinted here on January lst, as io'o"o.
.The wear 1898 avs the Street. closed III o,"~o
Of glory Which means that IL cIoseu W." .,
,hs b,shest OF the year, or thereabouts WIN o's
hustpess doing: with the public. foreign ana oo"e
,,c I'm the market: with big prohts maoe' a'",
what ia far more TO the point with the pro"se
vet bigger profits 10 be made In the future IL 'ne
wear 1899 be not a big bun year, then the prese"1
outlook IL all at fault; and no prediction vi '"'
future Is possible from the past.
rha onlv trouble with the above prediction was
.h.t I, covered too long period. II II had been
confined TO the first six months OF 1888 II would
baye heen as correct as prophecies can be ex-
nac,ad m be The tremendous upward impulse
with which we came into the present year.
csrr,ed everything forward well into the sum-
mer. but with the fall of the year the cIouds
began to gather here and there. and the SKY
continued to darken, until the storm struck u
In December.
II ia more than proba ble that this storm would
not have come until late next year. II 1t had not
been for the South African war. Putting 1t
another way. the war may be said TO have
brought on a smash nearly year before II
should have come Having made It's smash 1t
don't look as n the war could cause another
whatever may he it's fortunes; but long
It lasts II will be a drag on the recovery move
ment and it appears now az If the conflict
would last all through the coming year
II the idea be correct. that the collapse Of too
extended credits which everybody knew must
come sooner or later, in fact brought be-
fore it's natural time: It has an important bear
ing on the Immediate future. 1t means that. the
collapse having occurred untimely, the rebound
which invariably follows a smash can go much
farther than IL otherwise would. and that tho
period OF decline again may be very slow 1t
is possible that the first half OF the new year
will not see much shrinkage in general business
or in prices of securities. There will probably
be a very irregular market.
1t will be necessary to diYerentiate the mar
ket We have two Observation-Disclosures and
industrials The railroads not extrava-
gantly doomed. and therefore have no cause to
collapse. The properties themselves have been
improving and consolidating in the boom period:
and have neither been exhausted by non paying
extensions nor by payment OF extravagant divi-
dends. The wild rush OF the public to speculate
was diverted from the railroads to the new in
dustrial creations comparatively early In the
game The railroads. therefore, having escaped
the imitation craze. give solid backing to the
market; and II may well happen that some rail.
road stocks. not now dividend payers, will be
promoted to the dividend paying list next year.
With the industrals. the case is different.
in operation. They nearly all the creations.
in their present form. OF period of wild ex-
pansion; and all know what sort OF a crop
that grows. In the past when all speculation
was in railroads. such periods gave US hun
dreds, even thousands Of miles of road which
for years after they were built could barely
earn working expenses much less interest on
bonds or dividends on stock crop OF reor-
ganizations was the after growth. The Same
thing will be seen with the new industrial cre-
atons and the coming year will witness the
beginning Of the process; but 1t will not be
likely to start in the first half Of the year, be-
cause every mill and factory In the land is filled
up with orders for six months at least and not
few for twelve months.
That a panic in the stock market could come
at a time when all the wheels OF industry
turning thus busily. is fair evidence that some
thing has occurred to start 1t prematurely; and
as before said, this something was the South
African war
1t may be noted. as showing how all panics
have certain general features while varying In
detail. that we are hearing now from out OF
town points of increasing tightness OF money.
while here II is easing up. This is always the
case. When the convusion occurs at this CEN
tire. and money rushes up to panic rates, west
ern dispatches tell us that there Is no disturb
ance whatever outside OF New York, and that
the whole thing IS confined to Wall Street. In
week or two. the shock has progressed west
ward and then the dispatches come in telling
OF rising rates for money and disturbance OF
business in consequence. We shall be getting
these dispatches right along now. from points
further and further west until hear from
San Francisco. The panic OF 1893 moved across
the continent with a marvellously regular mo-
tiOn; and the downfall of a certain bank in San
Francisco predicted when the shock should
ach that city. About three weeks later the
bank went This latest disturbance however
will probably do little serious damage In Its
progress. from having come before its time.
During the past week the market has been
strong-very mucl stronger in fact. than the
majority Of people anticipated. 1t was expected
that 1t would sell off Friday, 1t had been
rushed up several times the day before in what
looked like manipulation to realize on; but after
some hesitation and Slight decline Friday morn
Ing It moved up more strongly than before, and
closed yesterday with every indication Of good
buying One hears OF large buying by certain
people VINO were shrewd enough to get out OF
stocks during the summer in anticipation or
decline later in the year Doubtless they were
deferred from buying by the increasingly dark
outlook. until the panic actually came The Is.
& O. stocks led tie upward movement one day.
the common stock being specially buoyant. the
fact that the b. & o. and the Pennsylvania
| systems hereafter to work in harmony is
the basis OF the speculation. The Union Pacihc
! stocks are spoken OF safe purchases at these
| prices by people who would be likely TO know.
The Federal Steel Company will pay the ac-
| cumulated dividends on the common stock IN
! January. A dividend on the common STOCK or
Steel Wire Ia promised-but promises don't go
| with that stock any more. The company VIII
| have to pay. not one dividend only but several.
before the public will put faith in any promises
| emanating from that source.
| The much beated reorganization plan or the
| Toledo. ST. Louis & Kansas city road was ap-
| proved on Friday by what the committee claimed
/ ha hnndhnldera