New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1899-07-22

1t is somewhat startling TO find an individual
capable OF estimating the population OF a great
country at five successive decennial censuses from
five to forty-fve years before they took place. so
accurately to come within l per cent OF the
facts subsequently developed. in each case as IN
the foregoing; and at first. more startling to
find the Individual nearly 10 per cent in error
in his next the sixth estimate; 1914 per cent from
the truth In the seventh and q 13 per in the
eighth 1t will not be out OF place far to antci-
pate the writer's estimate for 1900 to venture
the prediction that Mr.. Watson's ninth estimate
which places the population OF the year 1900 at 100
1856 will be shown by the coming census to be
In error by amount exceeding one-third OF the
total population at that time. In fact there is
nothing all remarkable in the estimates made by
Mr.. Watson; his success In approximating the re-
suits of the earlier easily gained
and his later failures might almost as easily have
been anticipated In the language OF the late Pres-
dent Walker one OF the greatest OF American sta
tsticans:
There nothing especially deserving admira-
grasp upon the future beyond what other pos
sess. His estimates were not even based upon a
try That which caused the growth Of numbers
through the earlier decades Of history to be so
strikingly uniform was the principle Of population
operating absolutely without check among a people
spread sparsely over the SOIL with little Of wealth
and little Of extreme poverty and with nothing to
make child bearing burden. Under conditions like
these population Increases at geometrical ratio
as regularly as a gas expands in a vacuum.
The notifications in the environment of the citi-
zens Of the United States that followed the middle
Of the present century put an end to this simple
regularity OF increase effectively the contnu-
ously unchanged environment Of previous decades
had caused its establishment.
INFLUENCE OF IMMIGRATION.
The increase in population between 1850 and 1890
would manifesty have been much less than "A IS
per had the total immigration of that dec
aaa Cd hat
similar duration in the history OF the country. The
number Of immigrants that settled in. the United
States during the decade that ended June &c. 1890
5246,613. amounting more than one-thlrd OF
ell of those who had entered since the foundation
OF the Republic and exceeding that OF the next pre-
vious decade by Ss57 per cent There is every indi-
cation that. even allowing for a material increase
during the fourteen months the immigration
of the present decade will exceed three fourths
OF that Of the decade 1880 TO 1890 Obviously also
the intercensa increase In natve-born children IL
largely affected by the number Of immigrants who
arrive during the earlier years OF the decade for
these are nearly all within the ages that contribute
generously TO the birth rate Attention will
be directed to this point hereafter
Though statistcian fails 10 recognize that
are inevitably connected with all census
work and II is not here denied that past censuses
have scarcely attained the possible maximum OF
accuracy. and while it evident that there
are serious inaccuracies in the data most essen
tial 10 such estimate II seems rot improbable
that analytical estimate OF the growth OF popu-
lation during the present decade be made more
satisfactory than any based upon general mathe-
matical calculations. The bases for such an esti-
mate are. necessarily. the data collected in success
siye censuses and the annual records Of immlgra-
ton kept in the office OF the Federal Bureau OF
immigration. The probable accuracy OF the results
would scarcely be enhanced by going back of the
Tenth Censusf particularly I'm view OF the uncertain
When one seeks 10 estimate. in the manner sug-
gested. the population the Twelfth Census the
inquiry that seems naturally TO take precedence is:
How many OF those enumerated in the Eleventh
Census will be found living in 1902" II this ques-
ton is qualified by restricting It 10 white persons
Of native birth the answer will give the native
white population. ten years OF and older at the
Twelfth Census. This element constituted more
than one-half of the total population in 1880, and
satisfactory estimate will obviously be a substan-
tla step toward the desired result. The census OF
1880 found 36Si3 29l white persons of domestic ma
tivty and that OF 1890 33.0i7 663 such individuals
who were years OF age or older. The latter
number was clearly. composed OF the survivors
among the former. grown ten years older, and the
difference represents. for this class the deaths
during the decade. The average death rate thus
Indicated for the decade is 1903 In each 1000
living at its beginning II would. however be in
assume the continuance Of this rate