The Indianapolis journal. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1867-1904, 1899-08-21

OF the best. Another reason for conserva-
tism is the high level of the best stacks
and bonds. In these the future has reen
so amply discounted as to leave little o.
~portunity for further profit, excep. in cases
where dividends are likely TO be increased.
Careful railroad managers. hovev.r. will
be slow about increasing their dividends
when earned in a season OF exceptional ac-
tivity, when expenses are increasing and
when fresh competition may develop. The
class Of securities mosr nkely. 20 lead tie
next advance will be the Medium and low
priced stocks, which have not ,iSCn pro-
p~ortionately with better issues. Among the
industrials the iron 3nG steel ISSUES are
likely to be manipulated upwards on the
present phenomenal demand and prices for
both the raw material and finished pod
ucts.
"a favorable factor was The refusal Of the
Bank of England to advance its rate OF
discount, although such advance would
have caused no surprise. This indicates lit
tie tien rear IN 70 L9 phe n over the m nc m sl11a-
ing gold, these as yet are indefinite. Should
Europe buy our stocks with any freedom
exports of merchandise were very heavy,
amounting to s94. COS. 600. against S12,52 2 coo
the same month in 1S9s. Imports amounted
that the excess OF exports last month was
$4,000 In 1888 and 81, 5000 in 1897.
"A good many people are surprised at the
comparative stagnancy of the stock mar
ket in the face of such strong bull factors
as the now certain prospect of another sea-
.oNA oh IA at
or railroad earnings, and especially of net
earnings. These factors pass for nothing
for the time being, but II does not follow
future reference. The impression seems TO
be quite general that a basis is being laid
by current conditions for an active mar
ket and a considerable rise in prices at a
later stage. Certain conditions. however,
unite to make a vigorous bull movement in
activity in the general market resulting IL
q higher range of prices may be expected
from now onward: 1t Is perhaps many
sentees from Wall street as during the
present summer. Also the local money mar
Ret Is In too uncertain a condition to en-.
Of only 100000 in the reserves of the asso-
ciated banks at the beginning of August
is not a very hopeful factor In prospect or
the usual outflow of currency to the in
terror during the months of August, Sep
tember and October. Indeed. such a meager
surplus would certainly produce a strons
reactionary tendency were ii not that the
large accumulation of money at other bank
ing centers suggests a possibility that the
may prove to be materially less than thu
former average. And the latest statistics
issued by the controller of the currency
that probability. The increase in reserves
is general throughout the country. New
York o0 city being the principal &c exception I lon
ferent classes of national banks In July has
been as follows for the last three years:
1899. 1898. 1891.
New Y'k. Chi
cago and st.
Louis ........ 1856. 1886 % sed5, S17. 900 s2O7. o12. 900
Other reserve
cities ........ 57s,5 sos, 900 4se, 1896, 900 4lO.o72, 600
Country banks 3Ss, 925, 900 $50, $4,000 2s9. 25, 900
This comparison shows that in July the
reserves of the other reserve cities and
Of the country banks combined were $107.-
$4,000. or 13le per cent?. greater than last
year, and sos ,26, 600, or q per cent, greater
than in the same month in 1897. At New
about 2 per cent. These figures show that
this city can Ill afford to part with any
considerable amount of money for market
ing the crops, but they also indicate that
the interior Is not likely to need anything
like the amount of help from New York
that has usually been found necessary. This
probability seems so plain and strong that,
although 1t may not be safe to count upon
It as an absolute certainty, yet 1t would at
least be very premature to take alarm at
the prospect in the present immature stage
of the season. We may await the outcome
without any acute apprehension, but at the
same time we may not calculate upon O
really easy money market for the fab
months. This aspect OF the situation af-
several weeks to come, but during that In
terval the maintenance of investment values
may safely be left to the care of the gen.
eral prosperity Of the country and Of the
railroad interest. All the current probabili-'
ties, however, suggest the prospect OF firm
rates for money for the next two or three
months. During August, September and Oc-
unusually large, when borrowers will be
more at the mercy of the banks and higher
rates can therefore be the more easily en-
forced"