The Wheeling daily intelligencer. [volume] (Wheeling, W. Va.) 1865-1903, 1899-10-13
BOOM AND TRUSTS"

Ordinary ACTIVITY ia the btlhitlerA "a
the Country = Not an Ephcmcral
Prosperity.
New York Journal Of Commerce.
There Is no difficulty In explaining the
prevailing extraordinary activity In the
business Of the country. Since the crls-
Is Of 1888, we have seen no real prosper
lty. Partly from the profound shock to
public confidence and to our financial
machinery arising from the silver agi-
tation. and in less degree owing to a
reaction from an antecedent strain OF
activity, the last ave years has been q
period OF depression rarely equalled in
the history OF the country. Such re-
action always Involves a widespread
economy Of consumption. All wants
except these most essential to susten-
tatlon and domestic comfort are post
poned for succession Of years; and no
reeuperatlon is possible until llQulda-
tlon has become thorough and the saw
ings from economy In expenditures, or
from some special good fortune, have
yielded q fund available for supplying
the long-deferred wants and for reviV-
ing enterprise.
In 1898, the first symptoms Of revival
from the long depression began to APP
pear in operations TO meet the more
urgent OF the unsntlsiied wants. Also
the wheat crops OF 1887 and 1898 were
extraordinarily large, which enabled the
farmers to pay Off their farm loans and
to increase their domestic OUTLAWS. An
other helpful condition appeared In
| contraction OF Imports and an eEpnn'
sion OF exports, which produced an UNI
precedented foreign balance In our IA
vor, so that during 1897 and 1898 the m.
tional stock OF gold was increased about
5000, 100000. Through the whole period
OF the depression. the growing surplus
OF productions over consumption 50
continuously forced down prices as 10
facilitate the export Of our manutac-
lures and, for the fiscal year 1883 the
shipments Of that class of merchandise
were valued at 1888, COO, 600, against
SI5S, 900 600 in the year 1929.
| By the end OF 1898, these ametiatoTy
factors had developed general revival
of confidence among both producers
and consumers, and the subsequent ac-
tivlty in every branch Of trade has ex-
ceeded all experience, Quite generally
current orders for goods are much In
advance OF production, and prices OF
manufactures have already advanced
| 10 to Ia per cent and are stu rising. In
some kinds Of products. the demand e&-
ceeds the actual immediate wants OF
consumption; for, In view of the possl-
bility OF still higher prices, some dis
tributors deem it a good speculation TO
supply their wants In advance. The re-
30 Tof
however appear to be fully equal to
the productive capacity OF the existing
plant Nor need this seem incredible;
for the new wants are to be measured
not only by the Ave years large ar
rearages OF consumption, but also by
the fact. little noted that since 1898 the
population Of the country has increased
| fully nine mIllions--whioh means that
the national requirements have e%-
panded IL per cent during that interval.
What do these facts imply as 80 the
future course Of the commercial
boom? Certainly not that It is n mere
ephemeral squirt, The basis OF the re-
vived activity is too broad, credit Is too
sound. and general financial conditions
are too healthy to admit Of any early
reaction. Ordinarily. the ups and downs
of trade waves cover a period Of ten
years. five in the fall and five in the
rise: and there is no apparent reason
why the movement now in progress
should prove exceptional TO that rule.
The aspects Of this prospective period.
however are not to be closely inferred
| from past experience The reorganiZa-
| ton OF our Industrial system upon the
trust principle introduces new prob
| lens which make the future largely eX-
detrimental md enigmaticnt The new
system has n great advantage in start
| ing at the beginning OF rising wave OF
prosperity, which Is calculated TO de-
| velop its strong points rather than its
weak ones. There is, however. much
reason to expect that the new methods
OF Industrial management win divert
| the run Of events from the former nor
NAL course.
One Of the first results Of a boom is a
rise in prices. which finds Its counter
action in u rapid increase of production
and in extension OF plant, until prices
Fecede to the normal level. or possibly
fall below it-when reaction sets In.
That Is the course under unfettered
conditions Of trade. What shall we see
under the concentrated control OF the
''trusts?" Prices viii rise MS under the
old regime: but shall we see the old
time checks to dearness coming into
play? When values have risen above
the normal level. win the trusts ex-
pand their output so as to arrest the
advance and realize lower profit upon
larger product? or win they restrain
| their production and hold prices above
the normal level? As II IL their policy,
MS well as necessary incident OF their
! inflated capitals, TO swell their profits
| by the highest obtalnnble prices. Il can
hardly be unreasonable to suppose that
they are likely TO adopt the latter pol
icy. Possibly, ut some late period, the
chastenings OF experience may mollify
| their policy Mt this point but II is only
too likely that, with their present mp
probation Of their necessities and mast
cry, they may use their power with lit
| tie mercy or prudence through the per-
! ind OF prosperity now in sight
These tendencies foreshadow n very
! different condition In season OF high
national prosperity from what We have
been accustomed TO. For. n every en-
couruSemcDt is to be given to the adj
vnucluB OF prices under boom and all
check upon the rise Is TO be withheld.
| how is the unfortunate outcome OF force
| Ing our prices relatively higher than
| those Of other countries to be avoided?
And, with such q condition Of national
| learners, what other result can We am
| tlcIpntc than an Increase in our Im-
ports and n decrease In our exports.
with the consequence Of turning the
| foreign exchanges against US and losing
our hold on the foreign markets? II is
not sufficient to answer that the eCono-
mics under the trust" system are such
that profits can he enlarged without re-
sort 20 an enhancement Of prices. Ger
| tain economies claimed may be con.
ceded. but II remains to be proved by
trinl that they are us large as is repre-.
| gnnIcl. EnuAlIN Mc must whit ON nN.