The herald., 1898-12-28
THE CURRENT YEAR A RECORD
BREAKER IN FOREIGN TRADE
THE PROBABLE NET FIRE LOSS
The Cost Of Generalization in Rates.
Western Union Report-Divi-
neutrality-suspicious.
OFFICE OF THE HERALD,
Los Angeles, Dec. n, 1898.

q record breaker in our Foreign trade an
nails has been already pointed out in Brad
streets Particularly was this the case in
the matter of largely increased exports and
in the excess they show over our import
trade totals. Expectations, apparently rea-
sonably well-founded, were that the abnor-
NAL excess OF exports over imports would
tend to lessen as the year advanced to
close, not so much because OF an expected
falling off in our export trade, as because
of the belief that with improved business
conditions here our takings OF foreign man
ufacturers would be enlarged. Certainly
this has been the basis of much OF the hope
fulness displayed in the foreign views OF our
expanding foreign commerce. Such expec-
tations, however, appear 10 have been lar
from accurate, because while our export
trade continues to expand at most re-
markable rate our imports show no signs
of expansion, and the conviction is now
gaining ground that the United States has
ceased to be a great receiver OF foreign man
ufactured goods. Were it not, indeed, Tor
the large imports of raw material for tex
tile manufacture our import trade would
have fallen to a very low point.
These reflections are apparently borne out
by the statistics OF import and export trade
for the month have broken all records, ex.
for the nonthha We broken all records, eX-
ceeding by nearly $5000,00O the immense
total of December last year, and being al
most two and a half times larger than in
November, 1897. Exports for November, as
shown in another column, aggregate Sl29,-
1882, against imports of only $52 100, 800,
a gain being shown in exports of more than
per cent over the total for October, 10
per cent over November one year ago and
of per cent over the heaviest previous
monthly total on record. This, it is hardly
necessary to remark was caused partly by
large foreign takings of provisions and cot
ton but against this were slightly smaller
tal1ngs of breadstuffs, live animals and
mineral oils, so that we must look for the
great excess shown over this and previous
years in heavier exports of manufactured
goods, in which, indeed 1898 seems Likely
to break all precedents in showing larger
total exported than imported. This latter
feature, it might be remarked, is the last
stronghold of the foreign producer, because
with our manufactured goods leaving this
country in larger volume than they are inn
ported there seems but little hope of the
United States figuring in the future as
large surplus receiving market for this class
of material.
The figures for the eleven months of the
calendar year are most significant, showing,
as they already do a total of exports valued
at 81, III, ,6Sl 100, an excess of $l430U0, 900,
or IA per cent over the corresponding totals
year ago, which previously held rank as
the period of largest exports on record, and
an excess of exports over imports for the
eleven months of S537 1897 ,04G, pointing to
the probable fact, that this year we will sell
abroad nearly two dollars worth for every
dollars worth that we import. The No
vember figures are particularly significant,
however, as pointing to the continuance of
the immense expansion in our trade which
has made the entire world our debtor and
still further enlarged the apparent so-called
''balance Of trade" at the present time
furnishing basis of illusions, which in
some cases, apparently, time only will re-
move. Ii, for instance, the December total
of exports proves to be as large as that of
November, and advance reports of wheat,
cotton and manufactures exported point to
this total being exceeded, our total export
trade for the entire year will aggregate in
the neighborhood OF 5000, 600, or an
excess of $6l50O0,000 over imports in mer-
chandise exports alone. In this connection
1890 to 1897, inclusive, showed an apparent
balance of export trade in our favor of
81 l,226, 100000, which seems not unlikely to
be increased to the extent of $6l5,00O, 900
for the present year. Against this immense
foreign liability there is, apparently, little
to show on the face of foreign trade returns.
During the period of 1890 to 1897, inclusive,
our exports of gold exceeded imports by
ho,,f
year are very large, our exports of gold and
bullion for the entire nine years will exceed
imports by at least 65,000,000 Our ex-
ports of silver, too, have been far in excess
of our imports, the total for the eight years,
from 1890 to 1897, being Sl37 900, 900, which
4 is likely to be increased this year by at
least $20,000,000, making the excess of ex-
ports Of gold and silver coin and bullion
during the nine years 1922 100000, which
added to the excess in merchandise exports,
points to an apparent balance in our favor
for nine years in excess of 50, ,060 O00, 900.
1t is the liquidation of this immense bal
ance that is apparently worrying the bal
ance of trade economists, and some of them,
disregarding all the ordinary rules of COM
mercial procedure, seem to think the larger
portion of this indebtedness is still owing
and must be liquidated. The fact is that
through variety of channels the great bulk
of this immense indebtedness has already
been liquidated, not, it is true, by the for
warding of large quantities of gold, for
shipments of only small portion of this
immense total would have precipitated
vertable catacysm in foreign financial
markets, but through the return to us of
large quantities of American securities, the
spending of large sums abroad by Ameri-
cans and the countless other channels, such
as freight charges, expenditures for the ma
tional defense and other methods of dis
posal of surplus, not excluding considera-
tion OF the fact that the tendency has been
to report our export trade at its full value
while there has been corresponding well.
defined effort to minimize the value of our
imports, particularly of foreign merchap
disc. When all is said, however, the fact
remains that the United States during he
calendar year 1898 still further improved
its position in the worlds markets, and
more nearly than ever before is in position
OF independence regarding our commercial
relations with abroad.