The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1898-03-28
BANKER CLEWS' VIEWS.
The Financial Outlook as Seen From
Mill Street.

wall street..
New York, March 25.-Wan street con-
tinues to take color entirely from the Cuba
situation. The waiting for the report of
the Naval Board of Inquiry has had a de-
pressing effect; the more so because the
expectation has now become general that
it will declare the destruction of the Maine
to have been caused by an external force.
At the same time, the conviction has be-
come more positive from day to day that
the President has decided upon an early
presentation of demands to Spain that
must bring the question of peace or war to
a direct test. This feeling has become so
general that the hopes of peace have al
most disappeared and there is a general
dscounting of the probabilities of war.
The marine insurance companies are issu-
ing war policies and all the risks that an
impending war suggests are being provid-
ed against. Under these circumstances, the
transactions on the Stock Exchange have
fallen to about half their usual volume
and the course of prices has been steadily
downward. The feeling in view of the prob
abilities of war has no feature of alarm
about it. The possibility of a struggle has
been already anticipated, with the result
of an average decline in prices of about 20
points.
The opinion is quite general that this
shrinkage is quite sufficient for any effect
the war can legitimately have upon the
value of investments, and stocks are con-
sidered intrinsically cheap and a good in
vestment Notwithstanding, it is conced-
ed that, in the event of more directly
threatening complications arising, or in
the case of declaration of war, there
would be a further sharp drop in prices
and that consequently the best time for
inn saAlaG
have happened. In proportion as the prob
abilities of war appear to increase, the
disposition to sell long stock increases,
with a view to buying back at the possibly
lower prices; and to this extent the increas-
ing chances for war have a depressing eff
feet upon prices. But all this is i'm effect
a discounting of the worst possibilities,
and therefore should have some support
ing effect upon the market in the event of
war occurring. In any event, with the
prevailing general expectation that our
government will make demands upon Spain
which she will resist, it is 10 be inferred
that there viii be an indisposition to buy
stocks until the issue of the present situa-
ton is reached.
If that issue should fortunately be a
peaceful settlement, the effect on prices
admits of no question; if it should be war,
there would at first be a sharp fall in val
ue; and what would follow that must de-
pend upon a variety of circumstances con-
nected with the vicissitudes of war which
cannot now be foreseen. AS in the case
of our own civil war, the course of specula-
ton would follow the ups and downs in
the varying fortunes of the struggle and
the immediate prospects as TO its outcome.
From this point of view, it is not to be ex-
pected that the movements of the stock
market will be much influenced, pending
the present suspense, by the intrinsic value
or earning capacity of corporate proper
ties, but principally by the probabilities as
to what prices they may touch under these
future uncertain conditions. Holders OF
| corporate mortgages are to some extent
realizing upon them at their present rel
atively high prices with view to invest
ing the proceeds in stocks when favora-
bic opportunity shall present itself.