New-York tribune., 1898-09-23
TILE TROERLE " COTTON.

,rho lo,vost nricc eyer known for spot cotton
lam, hoon reocbcd In November 1894, and
again in February and on March l. lN"'' 'n'
great crop of nearly lo~~0m bales drought
the ouotatiOn now current ana aiter tilt'e !'i'0
the South raised n crop still larger ny moro
than 100000 bales. which would have d'-
pressed the price quite as inuch had lio' '"h-
sumption of American cotton here ana aproad
materially increased As il was, the prospect
Of another large yield to follow prevented recoV-
cry in prices. as usual toward the end Of crop
,oor go that the average of daily quotations
during the last crop year was Only o-% coh'S'
against CAB cents during the crop year ending
on August 81 1890 II is The lowest yearly aV-
cragc ever recorded since present methods OF
grading and marketing have existed. Back III
1913 though what was then quoted as middling
unIonds sold M Z 10 q cents at the beginning OF
November and December and m > cents In May,
the average Of monthly quotations was &C
cents. and IN lS4j, when such quotation as !
10 cents was recorded in March and April, the
average OF the monthly quotations was OIL
cents II there Is any reason 10 suppose thnt the
same grades of cotton were represented. That
years average was the only one lower than that
of the crop year Just ended Probably the rang
of prices for as good grade OF cotton was at
that time higher than Inst year.
But after such n depression. with nearly
> OOo 900 bales ~ old cotton remaining on Sep
tcmbcr ! for consumption. the prospect of an
other yield ~ large brings not unnaturally the
lowest price ever quoted since 1s4S, nnd IN the
first month Of the crop year. before The move
nent has BECOME large. II IS this feature
rnthor than any other which deserves attention,
because IL is customary for cotton to command
good prices in September. when supplies are at
the lowest. even though II Is afterward de-
pressed by abundance. In twenty-five years
tho prlco has been all the time in September
above 10 cents In thirteen years. above cents
in one ni,ove \ cents IN three, above cents In
two and its lowest price In that month OF 1924
was 81 and IN 1S9J $50 cents. price nearly
n cent lower than ever before during September
npp.ars TO threaten lower range than has yet
been rcnchcd. NJ least until prospects for the
next year are so defined that sharp reduction
! IN Weld can hc expected. II was recently shown
that II there was actual consumption OF over
| 100000 bales OF American cotton for the hrst
time d. ng the last year IT has only been by so
exceeding the demand for goods thnt important
works IN this country have already stopped In
! considerable number.
The market for goods. all countries consid-
| cred has not yet warranted such consumption
In the manufacture although II has expanded
With really remarkable speed The consuming
population OF rho world increases slowly. II
NJ all. and yet II IL not twenty years since ms
much ms q oOoOUO bales Of all kinds of cotton
! had ever been consumed in manufacture In
any year An increase from 5NOo0D to TO-
100000 bales In twenty years over s8 per cent,
vastly outruns any possible increase in tho con
| eurnlng population. and since ten years ago,
when S131 900 bales OF a kinds OF cotton were
consumed then the greatest quantity ever
known the consumption has advanced 2,749.000
bales. or - per cent Even this country. the
most rapidly growing in population of all lnrge
nations has not known ms great an increase In
population, nor Is there evidence that the cOndi-
ton OF the consuming population OF the world
MS n whole has so improved as 10 encourage ma
| tcrally larger purchases OF clothing.
Yet II Is true that the actual distribution of
goods by sales to consumers has increased, If
no, as rapidly as production, much more rapid
ly than the consuming population. The surplus
of goods carried by manufacturers and dealers
has evidently increased but the consumption
| has Increased also. and no ono can with safety
predict that it may not Increase yet more. No
doubt the chenpness Of goods. helped both by
the reduction IN cost ~ manufacture and by the
low price Of cotton. In part due TO cheap trans
portatlon, has made a difference I'm the quan
tlty consumed, and with another year Of cheap
material and constant Improvement in machin
cry and methods Of work further increase In
consumption Is not improbable. The main diff
Guilty at this time Is that the accumulated stocks
of goods on hand and also the stock of cotton
yet manufactured ara unusually large. with n
crop coming which threatens 10 exceed the
worlds consuming capacity. not merely of
American. but OF NIL cotton.