The Topeka state journal. [volume] (Topeka, Kansas) 1892-1980, 1898-06-13
In a Magazine Article Written
in 1894.
SOME STRONG VIEWS.
Expressed by the Young Man
Some Years Ago.
Part of His Article is Repro
duced Below.

attention to a remarkable article by him
in which he predicts a war involving at
least six European nations.
He foresees a possible time when Rus
STA and France will divide all Europe
and much of Asia and Africa between
them.
This article was written in 1894 and
appears in the proceedings of the Naval
Institute for 1895. 1t is entitled ''Situ-
alton and Outlook in Europe"
Lieutenant HObsOn traces the causes
which have brought France and Russia
into dual alliance. He points out the
forces which have brought Germany,
Austria and Italy into defensive triple
but he lays much stress on the
proposition that Italy is liable at any
time to retire from the combination to
join Russia and France or to remain
passive spectator and receive a few
crumbs in the shape of a slice of Aus
tria and a patch of North Africa.
The writer maintains that the triple
alliance is not strong enough to resist
the dual alliance, and that Great Brit
ain, rather than see the three central
countries of Europe swallowed up by
France and Russia, with the prospect of
then suffering a similar fate herself,
would join Germany, Austria and Italy,
thus forming a quadruple alliance
against the dual alliance.
This leads Lieutenant HobSon to the
discussion of sea power, and he makes
extended comparisons of the opposing
navies. He advises the ships of each
navy into two classes He puts battle
ships and other heavily armored fight
ing machines of the offensive sort into
a standard armOred class" ArmOred
cruisers and vessels of less effective
fighting qualities he puts into an in
ferior armored class" His comparisons
are based on tonnage.
He argues that Russia and France are
of aggressive bent, while the other four
nations are inclined to be passive, and
he concludes the dual alliance will seek
the OppOrtune time to begin the great
scheme of conquest.
The plan, he thinks, will be to cripple
Great Britain's sea power first, because
old jealOusies will blind Germany, Aus
tria and Italy to their fate and they
will not rush to Britain's aid. This the
DRY is based on the proposition that it is
wise to divide an enemy and attack him
by sections. Lieutenant Hobson shows
by tonnage comparisons that the Brit
ish navy was stronger in 1894 than the
combined French and Russian vessels
in both standard and inferior classes.
He also credits Britain with having a
great prepOnderance in quality, about
1.S0 TO 1. Judging by naval plans then
known to the public he estimates the
dual alliance in a few years will be
stronger in both classes than Great
Britain's. He concludes, therefore, that
Britain should strike a blow while haV-
ing the superior sea power and argues
that it's aim should be to attack France
on such grounds that Russia might be
induced to hold aloof, which would
break up the dual alliance by MORALLY
offending French susceptibilities. He
frankly declares there is no probability
of Great Britain taking such an aggres-
sive course, and concludes the outlook is
gloomy.
He compares the armies as we'll as
the navies and shows that the quadru-
pie alliance would be stronger at sea
and about an equal match on land
against the dual alliance. But he fears
Italy is liable to quit the triple alliance,
which was to expire by limitation in
1897, and Italy holds the balance of
power both on land and on sea.
The whole article is based on the as
sumption that France and Russia are
bent on territorial expansion and are
only waiting an opportune moment to
carry out their schemes. France, he
says. is also moved by hatred of Ger
many and England.
In his introduction Lieutenant Hob
son says:
Europe, from the beginning Of it's
history. has been the worlds great
battlefield. Few of its generations have
passed without engaging in wars of the
first magnitude; possession of it's soil
and predominance of it's affairs have
ever been contested by rival races and
rival nations. But never in all it's bel
ligerent history has there been, as now.
such an accumulation of the forces of
war. A bitterness now exists between
the principal western nations that has
but few parallels in history, and never
has invasion been so formidable as now,
when the SlavOnic wave of mountain
like proportion is sweeping westward.
Never before has there been such prom
Use of war.
has expended its life in preparation.
with the revolutions in the material of
war and in the method of expanding the
personnel, time has been necessary for
preparation. It has required long and
labOrious years to evolve the existing
engines of war, to organize into armies
and exercise under arms all the able
bodied men of entire nations, to
perfect the weapons and means of de-
Tense, to drop the old and develop the
new; but it may be said roughly that
now preparations are complete Except
with Russia, whose unlimited resources
for war, checked only by want of
wealth. may be considered as having
no limit, for the entire nations are or
ganized into armies, and the uses OF new
agents have become more or less de-
fined. Further preparations will be
principally in increasing population and
increasing wealth. Certainly improve
ments will continue as always, but they
will be in all probability essentially i'm
provements, not radical changes like
those of recent years.
What may be termed the present or
der of things, military and naval, which
is such a vast advance over the old
order of things so recently gone out, is
now fully established, and will in all
probability remain till the test of war.
On the whole, the nations of Europe
are prepared, and though Russia is not
prepared as she would like to be, to
the extent that her population would
permit, yet, as will be seen below, she
finds an opportunity, a discord in the
western family which gives her an ally,
produces an alliance which is not only
prepared to accept but also soon to Of
fer war. There no longer exists the
great retarding force of apprehension
about the readiness for war Further,
the objects and policies of the nations
haX i1liShPd and clearly de-
fined, except in the case of Italy, to be
considered later. and the preliminary