The times., 1898-07-31
PROPHETS WITHOUT HONOR.
The Prediction of Financfcrs on tho
War Question nixnroyan c sf


Events which have followed the decla-
ration of war with Spain have proved
IN a very conclusive manner that those
who occupy the higher positions IN the
financial and commercial world SilI net
so down to history as wise prophets.
IL will be remembered that from the
time of the blowing up of the Maine un-
III the day war was declared against
Spain the White House was besieged by
men prominent in financial circles pro-
testing against war. basing their opposi-
tion upon the theory that il would be
followed by the destruction of values and
that trade conditions would be so de-
moralized that a general panic would oe
the result.
This kind 1of, argument came from finan-
cial and commercial bodies from all parts
of the country. The President was hour
ly in receipt of thousands of teIegrams
and letters from men whose names are
well known in business circles tending to
indicate desire that this Government
would be wise in dropping the Maine Incl
dent. permitting 1t 10 pass unnoticed, and
that the Sktraggiing Cubans be denied
freedom from Spanish tyranny rather
than plunge into a war which would
mean the certain ruin of many IL not all
commercial enterprises.
Subsequent events have shown most
convincingly that just the opposite has
followed the declaration of war from
that forecasted by the able financial ex-
perts of the gcmntry.
It was on the 23d of April that the
formal declaration of war was passed by
both branches OF Congress. 1t was then
twenty days from that time that Henry
Clews. the acknowledged literary leader
in banking circles. said in his weekly let
ter that out of twenty-one of the leading
stocks Of the country, seventeen of them
had advanced in value. ranging from 8
to IS per cent. 1t should be remembered
that Mr.. Clews was one of the pioneers
of those who protested the most agains.
the American Government responding
with arms TO the insults of Spain.
Mr.. Clews in his letter Of yesterday.
makes practical admission that from a
business point of view, the war has
stimulated trade rather than having been
the means of its depression. Mr. Clews
says:
A firm undertone prevails in the stock
market. but several factors seem TO in
terfere with its upward movement at this
IDENTIFY preferring reaction on which to
accumulate a new line of stocks TO car
rying on the advance without interrlIp-
ton. Until they are ready it is useless
TO calculate upon booming prices: but il
is well to observe influences at work
which in due season will overcome all
artificial barriers and compel even the
big leaders TO come into line
We refer to-.the multiplying evidences
he ha alr d,-
upon an era of exceptional prosperity.
The war is now factor of secondary
Importance. Peace rumors have had lit
tie effect, partly because of disbelief
n Spains readiness to accept our terms
and partly because peace is being dis
counted in advance of its accomplish
ment. The controlling influences just now
are the encouraging conditions in agri-
culture and industry. Upon these our
future prosperity chiefly rests.
War may prove a stimulus to trade,
but genuine prosperity was never built
upon a war basis, 1t is more important
to know that the farmers have had one
prosperous season and are getting out of
debt at an astonishing rate. Another
season of large crops. fair prices and good
exports is in prospect.
In the central West manufacturing of
all sorts is in active progress. The pro-
duction of pig iron during the last six
months was 6.00e. 900 tons; much the
largest half years production in our his
tory. Our foreign trade has resulted in
a heavy trade balance in our favor, which
promises a large influx of gold. not to
speak of the amount likely to be soon re-
ceived from the Klondike
The extension of our territory also fore
shadows a more active foreign trade.
Money is easy: confidence is rising, and
all the chief trade forces seem to be con-
centrating in the direction of business re-
vival. Under such conditions railroad
prosperity must be continuous: and 1t is
for such reasons that we have implicit
confidence in higher prices for stocks
later on. 81 ~