The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1898-08-29
Minneapolis

Il,
in the markets named:
N,Dr..no,,. Aq q 20. Aug; q e.
Ghicago ........ ...............6S1a 81
Cufutn ........... .b212 63
81. Louis $500. ................ 6SS 6SA
new YORK ............... .o9eS 667S
The quotations here given show no change
at Minneapolis, an increase of 40 in Chi
cago, 20 in Duluth, %c in st. Louis and
loss of Ike in New York.
This condition OF things indicates the alb
solute uncertainty existing at this time. There
have been, as yet no indications Of heavy
movement OF grain, certainly not by any
means SO large as was to be expected. The
conditions prevailing this year, as compared
with last, are by no means similar, and yet
the continued export demand causes an alb
sorption which is likely to last for some lit
tie time. The fact Is. the foreign granaries
were thoroughly exhausted before the new
crop of wheat began to move into market that
exporters were obliged to make heavy drains
upon this side, and thereby have prevented
any accumulation Of winter wheat previous
to the harvesting Of the spring grain. 1t is
not believed that this can last very much
longer, inasmuch as the world is already
informed of the immensely Of crop and
must soon know the conditions existing in
European countries. Advices from abroad,
however are decidedly conflicting. We learn
from one source that the yield in Russia will
be approximately 100000 blu greater than
in 1897 From another equally reliable
source we gather that much disappointment is
experienced and certain localities, which are
sure to prove deficient in their output are
distinctly named. For instance one Of
our consuls in Germany has recently trans
mitted to our state department a letter re-
ceived by him from st. Petersburg in which
the view was expressed that the crop of Rus
STA this year foreshadows a heavy shortage,
although the writer says the government does
not openly admit the fact. The localities
named are Centla al and Eastern Russia, where
it is said, such condition exists as has not
been eCualed since 1882. In the province
OF kasap the crops are represented to have
made SO poor a showing in their earlier
growth that the plant was cut down and used
as fodder. In the northern province of
Kaluga the young grain was destroyed by
drout9, From other sections Of Russia serious
damage from the Hessian fly Is reported,
with an estimated loss Of at least one-fourth,
while in other localities the weevil has de-
stroyed one-third. In Poland, upon the au-
thority Of this same writer, the heavy down
falls of rain have completely DESTROYED the
grain in the lowland districts The consul
communicating these statements adds that
Russia will, in the Judgment Of many, pre-
vent the expectation of grain before the end
OF the crop year, and he makes the further
statement that Germany will not develop
more than a two-thirds crop, and that the
shortage will be approximately 6O000,0 900 blu.
On the other hand, Austria-Hungary, France
and Great Britain do not expect more than
average yield.
The export demand, which has continued
through July and August in large propor-
tons, are clearly with a view to an immediate
replenishment Of stocks in anticipation of
the possible inability to secure relief from
the wheat growing countries Of Europe in
season to prevent too heavy outflow for
consumption as soon as the European crops
begin their movement. So recently as Satur-
day, dispatch was received at Washing
ton from our minister at Constantinople an
nouncing that note from the Porte had been
issued restraining the expectation of wheat
from one of the Albanian provinces of Russian
Turkey in anticipation of the expected re-
quirement Of a larger volume for consump-
ton than the prospects of the harvest were
calculated to supply.
The trade In the speculative centers Is of
a decidedly tim.d character. The estimates
of the yield of the Northwest are so variable
that no one can place any reliance upon
them. The total yield of 700, 900 coo bu, which
are the figures representing the higher esti-
mates, appears SO enormous that the bull
trader loses his courage when he enters the
market to buy, even at the present low
figures The conditions which existed year
ago were so pronounced both with respect to
the foreign and native yield, that the ordin-
airy traders were able to judge for them
selves, with fair degree Of confidence, that
the wheat for the later deliveries in the
progress of the crop year would be secured
only with difficulty. But the collapse Of
Mr.. Letter, through whose manipulation of
the market the late stores of wheat came for
ward for the realization of higher prices
brought the prices down with so much sud-
denness and revealed the fact that a larger
amount Of visible wheat existed than was
really expected, that traders are slow to ac
cept statistics with any great degree of
commence. no matter what the source may
be.
comparisons with other years are always
Drought under observation in circumstances
like these. but they count for nothing. For
instance, one highly qualified writer in the
East, making comparisons as far back as
1e92-93, and laboriousiy figuring out per captta
consumption, disgustingly sneers. not ONLY ST
our own government figures, but every other
class OF statisticians of the subject "The
truth Is" he exclaims, "the official report
was ralse." OF course it was false. and so
Is every report based an estimate no mat
ter by what authority 1t is made. while the
crop is growing and being harvested. The
visible supply is the only safe element tn
rely upon; the Invisible is of the most specu
latiVe character and tickle as anything in
the way Of uncertainty can be-
The Northwestern Miller, in its review of
last week, says:
Mills in Minneapolis, Duluth and Sunerior
are nkely to consume. before winter ehout
S.ooo,oo0 bu per month, requiring some 25
0ooO0o bu to meet such requirements. Not
less than 100000 Blu will be wanted for
storage in terminal elevators here and at tba
mead OF the lakes. If there be allowed for
Shipment to outside mills for ordinary con-
sumption, 100000 blu. there will then be
meet the normal demand. Unless the move
ment Is greater than the relative movement
In the winter wheat states has been. the de-
mand VIII not be satisfied, which will nat
araaly make active competition among buyers,
especially as money Is SO easily had II there
Is crop In the Northwest Of 1870, 900 900 to
00,OO0 GOO blu, there would be 10000 600 r.
1901 goo blu to be disposed of during the
year, with one-haf Of that marketed in the
nrst three months Of the spring wheat move
menf. there would be only as much to come
forward during the other nine months. II is
not disputed that 10000, 600 blu are required
lor interior mills Of the Northwest and for
SEED. While there will be surplus to carry
over to another year, there is no reason to
believe that there will be at any time moor
demand for all Of It, 1t is also very proha be
t that farmers will. at moderate prices, carry
larger than usual stocks. AS prices are now
only loo higher than the lowest figure ever
obtainable, under the depressing Influences
OF financial disaster, excessively large stocks
and general farm disbursements, the price
cannot be considered high. II the very small
quantity held from the old crop be added to
the full crop raised In the Northwest This
year. there will be only about the average
amount of other years for sale
Mr.. Charles A. Pillsbury, of Minneapolis,
da1t