New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1898-09-15
WHEAT GTENSES.
hold him To !

Another estimate OF the worlds wheat yleld
appears. and from source entitled to some
confidence for The Liverpool Corn Trad"
News has usually been careful and unbassed
in It's compilations II Is enough for the pres
ent purpose that It makes the worlds yeld
somewhat less than full crop though about
200 OOO. 900 bushels larger than the last. but a
more important item IL that the stocks with
which the year started are said 10 he about
100 600 900 bushels smaller than usual II Is
this difficulty. with another to he considered,
which deprives these estimates Of much value
The single Item Of stocks carried over may At
any time vary more widely than all estimates
Of Weld that are entitled to consideration differ
from each other. and yet regarding such stocks
there is No accurate information.
True there are compiled every year many
statements showing quantities 81 wheat alone
In certain warehouses aud elevators In various
countries and /, i commonly inferred that such
other stocks rs exist are In fairly constant pro-
portion 10 those reported. This IL m Inference
without reason. Tor tho very cause which would
make commercial stocks low. large demand md
advancing prices. might incline farmers and
others having grain on hand 10 hold for still
higher prices N the season when they would
usually sell But for want Of better infOrma-
ton II is assumed that all stocks Of wheat vary
In correspondence with the commercial stocks.
4 greater defect is that such statements make
no account OF nour But the quantity Of wheat
held IN that form "a nj AL times large, and apt
N vary widely with the prospect ms 10 future
demand and prices The mIllers and dealers
In -four are as a rule better able 10 carry
lnrsc quantities than the farmers. and flour
can be- more economically stored without the
loss ~ weight which always affects the value
Of wheat.
further difficulty in all such estimates IA
that In respect 10 great proportion OF the
WELD they are necessarily mere estimates. II
Is we'll known that the best of foreign official
reports are often materially altered after part
| OF the crop has come forward. md greatly
as 10 show the practical worthlcSsncss Of the
earlier guesses. But this country has no right
! TO find fault with such errors. It's official
reports have been from loO,OO0.ooO bushels up
ward In error repeatedly. and yet such official
| estimates for this country were until recently
/ accepted by most foreign compilcrs as probably
| more reliable than others. Knowing some
thing of the apparently lnsupcrablc difficulties
which under existing laws stand I'm the way
of reforming the work Of the Agricultural De-
partmcnt In this respect one cannot blame tho
present officials II they do not move rapidly
| toward better things But II tho American
official report; are liable to err 100000O0O bush
! els in Weld Of 500On0000 bushels. VIVA, can
| he expected Of other reports? On the face of
! things II must 10 admitted that variation Of
| OOOOOO 600 bushels In total Of o.5OO.OOO.0Oo
| bushels would not hc ms strange rs the errors
which have occurred in American reports.
with This fact In mind such reports must no
read with little confidence In their accuracy.
Many foreign countries have no official nforma-
ton regarding their crops. or mono until tho
crops have boon gathered and marketed. and
the only statements that are anywhere obtain
able about them are the estimates Of well-in-
formed traders. Bui even the most careful
and experienced dealers sometimes make mis-
takes and occn slOnally have interests which
so bias the mind rs 10 mako mistakes probable
The truth Is that the world does not yet know
what It's yield OF wheat IA In any year. nor Is
n reasonable approximation probable until after
n considerable part Of the crop has been mar
ketcd.