The Advocate and news., 1898-06-01
The Law of Averages.
BY EItweed POmeroy, President Direct Legislation
League

Slowly but steadily, like the emergence OF
some great rock, as Hoods subside, rises
the law Of averages as having been the
controlling, though little recognized, factor
In our social evolution, as being the dimly
seen and weakly grasped tremendous inn
plement of modern progress, as to be the
dominant law around which the glorious
civilization of the future will be built. Obey
II and II becomes your servant more pow
erful than the genii Of Aladdn's lamp.
Disobey II and the march Of progress leaves
you far in the rear.
All prophets, whether OF Israel of old or
of our modern times, have, either instinct
lively or with careful study, applied thiS
law of averages to their knowledge or ma
tional characteristics and have foretold'
never exact facts, but the destinies OF ma
tlons and foretold them correctly.
individuals vary but percentages remain
constant" Great businesses are built up
on this law. While neither you nor l, nor
any other living man can tell When ne VIII
die, vet IL you ask an insurance actuary
how many men of a large number or
given age and condition OF living VIII die
in year or five years, he can toretell WIN
almost absolute certainty. While no one
knows where the lightning will strike, or
tornado uproOt, or fire start, the fire insur-
ance expert can tell you so closely as 10 pc
absolutely accurate for all practical pur-
poses how many of these casualties will
insurance business, wherever found and OF
whatever kind Is built up on this great
law of averages.
The passenger agent Of a great railway
system cannot tell how many people Will
ride between two stations on his road to-
morrow but II he knows his business ne
can make an accurate statement OF now
many will ride on an average eacn oay OF
the year. On this knowledge Is based the
rates of fare to be charged and the number
Of trains to be run. The same Is true or
the proper fixing Of freight rates Because
in this line Of business, the law OF aver
ages is only partially 0beyed, there is
great social waste. But 1t Is obeyed.
The newspaper manager cannot tell
whether YOU or / will buy his paper to-
morrow morning, but he can tell how many
of the people in his district will buy, and
on this knowledge he prints certain num-
Der Of papers. His business is based on
this law Of averages
By this law statisticians can foretell how
many bankruptcies therell be, now many
people will marry at q certain age how
many children they'll have, the average
rainfall and temperature and thousand
other things. The larger the field from
which the figures are gathered, the more
sure the results, To-day almost all busi-
nesses are established on this law OF av-
erages to q greater or less extent, but In
the future obedience to It will reach a
finer and closer degree, and as 1t does, the
rewards from q better correlation or INDUS
mand, a more average distribution will
produce results in human happiness and
development never dreamed OF.
individuals vary but percentages remain
constant" Governmental methods are wit
Messing a closer application OF this law OF
averages. The world has turned away from
government by individuals because lndl-
Viduals vary. 1t Is turning toward govern
ment by the mass because percentages re-
main constant. 1t seeks stability, con-
stancy. The movement Is elemental In Its
character. 1t Is the inevitable.
Three testimonies Of how individual gov
ernment is subslding and per centage gov
ernment rising are given at the head OF
this article. And GustaVe LIE Bon, Thomas
Carlyle and Sir Thomas Erskine May were
not democrats at heart. But they have
prophesied of the inevitable. They have
seen, as lie Bon says, that "the last sur
ViVing sovereign force is the government
by percentages, that all other sources OK
authority" are "tottering and disappear
ing" while the power Of the people Is In
creasing, that 1.-The destinies of nations are
elaborated in the heart Of the masses
Carlyle has seen, Huge Democracy walk,
ing the street everywhere in its sack coat"
and he prophecies that 1t will build cities
and conquer worlds" Sir May says that
Estates which have not felt its power will
feel it, and states already under It's partial
influence must be prepared for Its increas-
ing force and activity"
The larger the field, the more sure the
percentage. The law Of averages, when
applied to businesses, will produce great
returns, but when applied to the state, 1t
win produce far greater results, because
the field is so much larger. 1t will bring
a. greater surety, a greater certainty,
greater accuracy.
T"Indlviduals vary, but percentages re-
main constant" Society is turning ever to
this more stable and constant government,
and 1t finds this in a percentage govern
ment and does not find 1t in an individual
government This explains the persistent
and continually increasing activity Of the
direct legislation advocates. This Is al-
most always unselfish and self-sacrihcing
But 1t is in accord with the spirit OF the
times-it is the spirit Of the times.
Direct legislation Is very simple. 1t is
only a fuller, finer, stronger application OF
the law of averages to the making OF the
laws which govern. 1t means that per-
centages of the whole people shall be ap-
piled either actually or tacitly to the en-
acting OF every law by which the people
are to be governed. In communities too
large for all the voters to assemble and