Evening star., 1898-11-05
MR.. kERR'S FORECAST
His Estimate Causes Smile at Republi-
can Headquarters.
The Democratic Secretary Denies
That He offered to, Bet and De-
clined When His Offer Was Taken.

The statement of SECRETARY Kerr of the
democratic congressional committee, fore
casting the events that will take place next
Tuesday, is simply smiled at at republican
headquarters, where it 1 is said that Mr.
Kerr has overdone his part vendeavoring
to show a democratic victory which will
give to that party complete control of the
House of Representatives
Mr.. Kerr, however. said to Star re
porter this morning that his prediction had
in no way been biased by his own desires,
and that in every instance his conclusion
had been reached upon statements made
by reliable and conservative people regard
ing conditions in the various congressional
districts. These statements, he said, have
been used only when they were known to
be reliable and that wherever the situa-
ton was reported upon by men who showed
that their enthusiasm for Democratic sue
cess overcame their sober Judgment they
Were thrown out
Mr. Kerr was quite Indignant over the re-
port that had been circulated to the effect
that he mad Offered to wager four or five
thousand dollars with the republican con-
SreSsionai committee on the results of the
election, and had withdra wn his offer when
there was an indication chat it would be
accepted. lie said today that he not only
had not offered to bet anybody but had no
intention of doing so, and IL any such offer
should be made to him he should merely
regard 1t as an evidence of weakness on
the other side.
Secretary Kerr's Forecast.
Secretary kerr's statement as regards
the result CT the election follows:
The republicans have 200 members In the
present House of Representatives, Three
of these they have acquired by use of the
machinery of the elections committee.
Therefore, based on the returns of the
elections in 1896, the House of Representa-
tlves would stand 203 republicans. 12T dem
ocrats, y populists and silver fusionists,
the total opposition TO the republican party
IN the flfty-hfth Congress being lJ4, Civ
ing republican majority of - over all, or
- changes necessary to carry the republ
cans to the minority side provided the
democrats should hold all the districts they
now nave. W hat are the chances of demo-
cratic sucC ess?
According TO the advices received by this
committee II ON sources which are very re-
liable, there are only 123 dis tricts conceded
10 the republicans as certain. Forty-eight
others are in the doubtful column, five of
which are held by the opposition in the
fllty-hfth Congress, leaving forty-three re-
publican districts in whie h there is a close
and hopeful contest in favor of the democ-
racy, and 1856 districts in which the opposi-
ton TO the republican party is positively
certain to carry, and local republican COM
InltteeS nave admitted as lost So, at this
hour, the republicans must concede they
nave no possible chance to control the
House.
iilS committee believes the next Con-
greSs will be democratic. Some of the
reasons for this are that thirty-two dis
trlcts are held by. republicans on SO mar
row margin as an average of only S74
plurality, and when it is taken into con-
Slderation that there Is an average of 2J4
post offices in these congressional districts
most OF them being rural, and there were
at least 1our applicants for every post Of
flee t62 republicans in each of these dis
trlcts We're disappointed by not reaching
nj a An ,f
44o votes will lose them any of these dis
trlcts; loss OF per cent of the repub-
lican vote will give the democrats ma
jority in the next House
ana when 1t is considered that, in ad-
d1tion, the republicans concede a loss of
twenty-five districts north Of Mason and
DlXon's line, it must be plain to every
one the sorry plight their statistican must
be IN to make 1t appear they have any
possible hope. To be more explicit, the
republicans have twentS-six members at
present from New England, while the dem
ocrats have one. which will be increased to
three, ana possibly fiVe,i In the next House.
In the middle and western states the re-
publicans have 152 members Ia the present
House, while the democsats and fusionists
nave only hfty-one, inhswih be increased
10 seVenty-four, with a.5hghting chance in
thiriy-ive additional diaerctss leaving only
ninety-four districts cerfain 10 the repub-
llcans. The south sent twenty five repub-
ucanS and 1o2 democrats and populistS to
the last House. The republicans cannot
hope to retain more than eleven of these
members in the next, giving the opposition
a gain of fourteen members from the south
alone, with fighting chance for four more.
And thus is made up the5statement which
indicates that the republicans are only GER
tain or l23 districts, and If they were able
to carry all of the remaining forty-oae
doubtful districts they could not have a
majority of the next House."