The Indianapolis journal. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1867-1904, 1898-03-28
CIews,s FinancinI Letter.

Henry Clewss weekly letter says: 'Wall
street continues to take color entirely from
the Cuba situation. The waiting for the re-
port of the naval board of inquiry has had
a depressing effect the more so because the
expectation has now become general that
it will declare the destruction of the Maine
to have been caused by an external force.
AT the same time. the conviction has be-
come more positive from day to day that
the President has decided upon an early
presentation of demands to Spain that must
bring the question of peace or war TO a di-
rect test. This feeling has become so gen.
eral that the hopes of peace have almost
disappeared and there is a general discount
ing of the probabilities of war. The marine
insurance companies are issuing war policies
and all the risks that an impending war
suggests are being provided against. I'm
der these circumstances, the transactions
the Stock Exchange have fallen to about
half their usual volume and the of
prices has been steadily downward. The
feeling in view of the probabilities of war
has no feature of alarm about it, The pos
sbility of a struggle has beer already an
ticipated. with the result of an average de-
cline in prices of about twenty points. The
opinion is quite general that this shrinkage
is quite sufficient for any effect the war
can legitimately have upon the value of in
vestments, and stocks are considered in
trinsically cheap and a good investment.
Notwithstanding, ii is conceded that. in the
event of more directly threatening com
plea ionS arising, or in the case of a
declaration of war there would be further
sharp drop in prices. and that consequent
ly the best time for buying will be after
those contingencies have happened. In
proportion as the probabilities of war APP
pear to increase the disposition to sell
long stock increases, with view to buy
ing back at the possibly lower prices; and
to this extent the increasing chances for
war have u depressing effect upon prices.
But all this is in effect discounting of
the worst possibilities, and therefore should
have some supporting effect upon the mar
ket In the event of war occurring. In any
event. with the prevailing general eXpecta-
tion that our government will make de-
mands upon Spain which she will resist, it
is TO be inferred that there will be an in
disposition TO buy stocks until the issue of
the present situation is reached. II that
issue should fortunately be peaceful set
Element the effect on prices admits of no
question; ii it should be war, there would
at first be a sharp fall in values; and
what would follow that must depend upon a
variety of circumstances connected with
the vicissitudes of war which cannot now
be foreseen. AS in the case of our own
civil war, the course of speculation would
follow the ups and downs in the varying
fortunes of the struggle and the immediate
prospects as TO Its outcome. From this
point of view, ii is not 10 be expected that
the movements of the stock market will
be much influenced, pending the present
suspense by the intrinsic value or earning
capacity OF corporate properties. but prn-
cipally by the probabilities to what
prices they may touch under these future
uncertain conditions. Holders of corporate
mortgages are to some extent realizing
upon them at the present relatively high
prices. with view 70 investing the pro-