Evening star., 1898-04-06
Actual War Would Not Make Trade
Any Worse.
UNCERTAINTY TEE WORST FACTOR
Merchants Would Soon Adjust Their
Affairs to HostiIities.
TALKS WITH BUSINESS MEN
special Correspondence of The Evening Star.


NEW YORK. April 5. 1898
In the minds Of many men, war itself
could not make business much worse than
1t Is at present as a result of the uncer-
tafnty. Trade Is at standstiI1 The con-
tinual agitation Of the Cuban question the
speeches in Congress and the resolutions in
troduced looking toward the recognition of
Cuba's independence, Intervention or war;
the reports. verified or not verified, con-
csrnirg President McKinley's attitude, the
diplomatic correspondence between this
country and Spain, and the active prepara-
tions being made by the Army and Navy
departments, with many other incidents,
have combined to make an atmosphere of
uncertainty as to the future that has great
ly affected trade in many branches.
In this city, the Mecca for buyers from
all over the United States, the number of
buyers arriving has fallen from 100 day
TO W, decrease of 40 per cent. OF course
the volume Of business transacted has also
declined in marked degree. Spring stocks
are In hand and manufacturers and the
large wholesale houses are anxious to sell,
put until there Is some certainty as TO the
outcome of the present international diifi-
cuty, purchasers are shy.
Orders Countermnnded.
Mills and manufacturers report orders
Tor goods countermanded. During the pas4
week orders amounting to many thousands
OF collars have been recalled, one firm
alone reporting that orders amounting to
$3oOOO had been Cancelled. These cancela-
tions come partly from local customers, but
in many Instances from customers abroad,
whose trade is affected by the so-calleL
war risks, the high insurance rates cut
ting on all chance of profit. Prices, how
ever. are fairly well maintained
Many traders say that declaration o.
hoSt1lfttes would. in their judgment, mere
ly cause temporary depression of bust.
ness, as it has been discounted and that
very little effect upon prices would be
noted. while during the progress of war,
y 1t should come, trade would gradually
recover its normal condition.
There Is a well-defined fear, however
that free silver supporters in Congress
would take advantage of the opportunity,
and any attempt to agitate the currency
question would. ii is believed, be disastrous.
1t is the general opinion of dry goods COM
mission merchants that war with Spain
In itself Is unlikely to produce more thai:
temporary depression in business. Thi:
will be seen In suspension of all but UT
gent purchases and not in any materia
change in prices.
Fear Change in Currency.
The trade agrees that more is feared
regarding tho stability of the nations cur
rency' tEan from war. 1t is feared that
thC Sh'SI ulcL WHO HOlO tne DdlauCe Oh
power in the Senate may force the ooun-
try upon a fiat money basis after war is
declared and a war loan made necessary
1t is agreed that there can be no better
investment under such conditions than
staple dry goods
The trade does not believe that many
large government contracts will be given
out for woolens and cotton goods, even
though war is declared.
In answer to an inquiry as to the effect
uI'on the dry goods trade OF a declaration
Of war. A. D. Holmes of H. Bauendahl &
Co. says: War will interfere with the
commercial body much as does a short
sickness with the human body. Its natural
functions will be depressed for time. and
then will come the convalescence. The
duration of the latter will depend upon a
number OF factors, but the business COM
n'unity Is prepared for the worst and will
looks for protracted struggle. Business
men FEAR war less than the possible atten-
dant plunging of the corntry's finances
upon nat money basis. The silver men
Ill Congress are constant menace to the
stability of the country's currency, and
there Is no way OF gauging their possible
action If a war loan should be called for
after the declaration Of war"
Eject on West Side Markets.
The effect Of the uncertainty has had a
noticeable effect on the West Side markets.
Merchants are buying from hand to mouth
ard awaiting the outcome. 1t is the gen.
eral Impression that soon as matters are
settled. no matter whether peaceful solu-
ticn will be the result or the contrary hus
liiess conditions will Immediately improve
SO far as can be learned, the talk of war
has not Influenced the price of any article
except indirectly. in that it has caused less
activity, and hence such articles as would
probably advance in price under active
trading by reason of the statistical position
remain unchanged.
The government has made some large
purchases of canned meats and vegetables
and dried fruits. In the event of hostilities
more orders will be forthcoming and in ali
probability a general advance will be re-
corded News comes from Baltimore tina.
canned pineapples are higher there on ac-
count OF war talk, as the raw material
comes from the Bahamas, which would be
within short distance of the storm center
branches Of mercantile affairs in the mat
ter of discussing the effect Of war with
Spain. Opinions of representative men nat
rraaiy do not agree but all are hopeful of
an amfcable settlement of existing dffrer-
ences, while hoping for peace and preDar-
ing for war. A leading chemical manu-
facturer thinks that commerce will not be
hampered to any important extent, beliey-
of short duration
Thinks Spain IL Blumng.
Another prominent member of the trade
firmly believes that although the situation
is serious. the Spaniards will carry on the
bluff game. and at the last, II called"
will turn down their hands and retire The
miscellaneous markets. including metals.
rubber. COAL naval stores oils paints and
ooiors. building material, cordage and
hemp and 1ute fiber, have all more or less
suffered by the uncertain outcome of pres-
ent internationaa complications Metals
nave been particularly duh and brokers
and dealers complain bitterly.