Evening star., 1898-10-31
CLAIMS IN NEW YORK
Both Parties Give Figures, But
Furnish No Details.
CHAUNCEY DEPEW'S FORECAST
Republicans Sure of Legislature
and Twenty-four Congressman.
CROkER'S LATEST GUESS
special Correspondence of The Evening Star.

Special Corres p' nGence Of The Evening Star
NEW YORK, October 80, 1898
IL Augustus Van Wyck is not elected gov
ernor of New York it will not be because
| of any failure of Richard Croker and Tam
many Hall Tammany campaign methods
have been extended to all sections of the
state in the attempt to save the Democrats
club regency from defeat and extermina-
ton Chairman Odell of the republican
state committee has been advised that the
democrats have padded the registration
rolls and attempted wholesale colonization
| at various points up the state. For TWO
weeks, ii is alleged, the democratic cam
paign managers have been sending money
into the interior, and the reports received
at the Fifth Avenue Hotel show that this
money was 10 be used 10 hire republican.
voters TO stay away from the polls on cleo
| ton day, and Tammany campaign tricks
have been discovered in many small towns
| throughout the state.
The key 10 the election Of Col. Roosevelt
| is up stale. and the situation there can best
! be described hy thauncey NJ. nepew, who
| has just returned from sIumping tour
| with the republican candidate:
| The leaders up there are confident that
| they can poll plurality tor Roosevelt. out-
| side of New York city, of AT least 100000.
SOlllt Say I!tN IlllN expect 20 come down
| to the Harlem with not less than 15u,nou
| These represent conservative estima les.
| They say that if Van Wyck does not carry
| the city by more than iuJ,ooU republican vic
| tory is assured They would Toe de-ighted if
| the democrats failed to carry the city by
| more than 10000. Their eyes on the
| city.
silver Democrats BisSruutled.
All over the state there is a growing
| evidence of disaffection among the demo-
Gratis because Of the manner IN which the
silver men have been treated. l think that
Colonel Roosevelt will undoubtedly poll a
great many votes of the silver democrats.
They are disgruntled. They say they rep
resent the real national democracy, and
yet they have been virtually thrown out
of the convention and withheld from all
participation in the campaign, At the SYRIA
cuse convention their candidates were ig
nored and the plank they wished inserted
in the platform was left out. As a result
of this, many of them will unquestionably
seek to punish the leaders who have dis
regarded them by voting for the republican
Candidates"
The managers at the political headquar-
ters I've begun to calculate majorities for
their ticf cts. Their claims are about the
same as those made every year week
before election, that is, they are bald, gem
eral statements, unsupported by figures In
detail. The fact is every politician
knows, that the managers are guessing and
that the only difference between their
guesses and those of other people is that
they are colored to suit party purposes.
AS usual, the democrats make the bolder
guesses. No politician can remember
campaign in this state when the democratic
managers did not claim 4O,'J0 or JOWo
plurality. Even in 1896, when the demo-
Gratis were defeated by something less than
10000 majority, Elliot Danforth, chair
man of their state committee, predicted,
up to election day, that Bryan would carry
the state 1t causes no surprise, therefore,
that Richard Croker, John F. Carroll Sen
ator McCarren and their associates are
claiming a plurality of from 5000 to I5-
coo for Van Wyck.
Croker Gives Figures.
Croker's latest guess is that the demo-
cratic state ticket will have a plurality OF
10000 in New York city. He comedies
a plurality of 1000 to Roosevelt above the
Harlem river, leaving Van Wyck plu-
rality of Ga,oo0 in the state. John +.
Carroll goes a little further than his CHIEF,
claiming a plurality of 10000 Tor Van
Wyck in this city. Senator McCarren is
more modest. He does not venture 10 give
figures of pluralities in New York state
but makes the general statement that van
Wyck will win by $4,000 or i3.OOo senator
Murt,hy talks in about the same way. None
of these managers will go into details when
asked on what information their predictions
are based.
At republican state headquarters there is
a disposition to avoid details. Chairman
oden says tfat Roosevelt VIII win by sa1e
plurality and he will add nothing to that
statement. Some of his associates say thdt MAJ
Rooseyelt's plurality will be about $4,000,
but they refuse to explain where this plu-
rality will come from. At republican county
Headquarters the prediction is made daily
that the democratic state ticket VIII nave
majority OF less than 10000 in this city
while Roosevelt Will come down to the
Harlem river with $1,000 plurality. NO de-
tails are given.
The only prominent politician who has
attempted to predict the result of the cleo
ton by the vote by counties is ex-Repre-
sentative Henry G. Burleigh of Whitehall
and he is not political manager. ne Is q
republican who has been fighting the Platt
machine for years, and his figures may be
colored more or less by his prejudices. Bur
leigh calculates that Van Wyck would De
elected by a plurality of about 8hooo- be
gives the democratic ticket 10000 plurality
in this city, and the republican ticket 53Ooo
plurality in the rest OF the state. Nheh
asked where he got all his information ne
said 1t was COLLECTED from many repupl-
can and democratic politicians and business
men throughout the state and from fund
of thirty years of experience. AT repubh-
can headquarters Mr.. Burlelghs nSures are
ridiculed and Burleigh is denounced as
chronic sorehead The democratic man
ayers say that Burleigh is all right as far
as he goes, but that he does not not go far
enough. -
Mr., Odell believes that Col. Roosevelt will
be elected. So does Senator Plat. So does
Gen. Woodruff a veteran of forty years of
public life These men do not sham, nor do
they base their estimates the power Of
corruption funds at the polls. They have
carefully gone over the situation conceding
the weak spots, but also recognizing the
strong ones, and their conclusions are after
mature consideration of all the factors.
Briefly, they practically agree, first, that
the legislature is safe beyond all question;
second, that Roosevelt is equally so, and
third, that twenty-four sound money con-
gressmen is the minimum representation
that this state will have in the next Con-
gress. There are now twenty-eight, and a
strong fight is being made to return all of
them -Four districts, however, are in
doubt. Some Of the republican managers
believe that these districts will be carried;
others do not. The election figures only !
will tell the story.
FRIENDS DISAGREE,