The San Francisco call., 1898-12-04
Will the Dragon Be Divided :?
CRISIS IN CHINA.
Reasons that Pacific Coast People Sbould Be Vitully Interested in
 tbe Oriental Question.
By Durhom w. Stevens.

 the appearance of infringement, be prevented? The powers which have ob- tained a foothold on Chinese soil will exercise certain influence in those inn mediate neighborhoods, no doubt, but does that necessarily mean that all other foreign commerce can be rigidly excluded? To buy in the cheapest market and to sell in the dearest is the soul and essence of successful trade. Can Chinese, even within the spheres of influence" be compelled to violate that law? The Chinese, as I have said before, are a practical people and good merchants, and it is not likely that the artificial restraints of sphere of in- fiuence" would long suffice to force them to do violence to their instincts as traders.
 It should not be understood from what precedes that I intend to belittle either the importance or the signifi- canoe of the recent movements of cer- tain European powers regarding China. To me they appear as ominous as they doubtless do to others. My only ob- ject, as will appear later on, is not so much to minimize the danger, as to draw attention to certain considera- tions which will enable it to be met successfully, should 1t ever come.
 There is an element of mystery about Russia's recent course in China. So far
  tained no cession of territory. Her of ficials have denied the story of a se- cret treaty, and maintain that the only object of the CaSsini convention was the grant of a railway concession from a certain point on the Amoor through Manchuria to Vladivostok, connecting with the Siberian line and shortening it several hundred miles. This railway was to be connected with another through Manchuria to some Seaboard point, presumably on the Gulf of Pe- chili. This latter line was to be under joint Russian and Chinese control. Sub- sequently, apparently as a set-of to Germany's seizure of Kiaochau, Rus sia obtained control of Talien- Wan and Port Arthur. Here curious question arises: Was Russia aware of Ger many's intention to seize Kiaochau before it occurred? The general belief is that she was, but, on the other hand. 1t has been stated on the highest au- thority that Germany's action was as much of a surprise to Russia as 1t was to every one else. The fact is import ant, if it is fact, because it marks a very definite separation between inter ests which the world hitherto supposed were, if not identical, at any rate har- monious.
 Another curious circumstance is the following. Only two years after Ger many and Russia, in company with France, had forced Japan to re-cede the Liao-Tung Peninsula to China, on the ground that it was not right for a for eign power to occupy territory control ing the approaches to Picking and Ko- rea one of them had Kiaochau and the other Port Arthur, the most important strategic points as regards the control of those approaches. This will serve very we'll as the diplomatic version of the fable of the OK and the bull.
 The position of Russia in Talien-Wan and Port Arthur is peculiar. The un- derstanding is that the territory has not been ceded to her absolutely, but merely the usufruct for term of years. That leaves Chinese ownership intact, and, coincidentally, the extraterritorial rights which foreign nations have un- der their treaties with China.
 There is one solution of this question which would be as advantageous to China as 1t would be to every power having commercial relations with her, and that would be the opening of the whole empire, without restrictions and under proper conditions, to foreign trade and residence. There would be difficulties regarding the system or consular, or extraterritorial, jurisdic- tien, but they are not insuperable. Un- fortunately, 1t Is too much. especially since the recent palace revolution at Peking, to expect this concession rom Chinese conservatism, even though IL offers one of the strongest safeguards which, under present circumstances, China could possibly obtain. But. hap oily, palace revolutions, even In China, cannot continue indefinitely the ob- stacles to reasonable and sensible pro- gress. China is coming closer and closer to the parting of the ways, when the dormant forces of progress must arouse themselves, perhaps through the sense of impending danger from with out the empire, perhaps from the hope lessneSS of existing conditions within. The awakening may be to disaster and ruin. but 1t may be, let us hope, to na- tional regeneration.
 It is hardly necessary for me to call attention to the deep concern which all that affects China should have for the people of this country. Hitherto our interest in the affairs of the far East, especially in those of China, has been but languid at best. If during recent years that interest has increased at all, it has not been I fear, because the pos- sible fate of the Chinese empire seemed a matter of practical concern to us, but rather because the migratory habits of it's inhabitants threatened to create a troublesome domestic problem in the United States. Now, however, all that is changed. Recent events have brought home, even to the most thoughtless of us, vivid realization of the fact that we are, in truth, a. world power. having interests on many seas and in many lands, where goes the commerce that is to make us even more prosperous than we already are. but nowhere greater interests than in our ancient neighbor. that vast but heln- less empire across the broad expanse of the Pacific.