The Portland daily press., 1898-10-07
THE WORLDS WHEAT CROP
IT'S the Greatest Ever Grown, But None
Too Great,

With the principal wheat crops of the
world now practically secure 1t Is pos
sibIe to arrive at a fairly accurate esti-
mate of the total production in 1898.
From the commencement Of seeding the
crop soares that are usually plenty In the
critical months have been mlssing' ana
this fact led many to believe some time
ago that the total yield would 30 above
the average, although few anticipated
such ord.breaking CROP the world
over, as is now calculated by we'll known
statisticians.
Tho most recent of these estimates Is
that compiled by Mr.. Broomhall. the ed.
itor of the Liverpool Corn Trade News,
recognized authority both In this coun-
try and in Europe, and his figures dis
play the stimulating effect that the re-
cent high price of wheat has had on the
acreage sown this season in all countries.
A CAREFUL study of his figures shows that
in calculating tho total crops of each
year he has departed fro II the usual meth
cd and has taken for his purpose the crops
grown in the second half Of the years
named. In the case of those countries
which harvest in winter he has relegaten
the crops grown in the current year to
the previous year; for example, the Ar
gentine crop which was really for mar
keting in January, 1898, he has reckoned
in the crop of the season 1928, believ-
ing that the disadvantages in so doing
are less than in reckoning the crops as
still available which were all consumed
prior to the opening of the current sea-
son. The same thing has been done with
Uruguay, Chill, Australasia and India,
the crops of which were ready in the first
three months of the year; thus in arr1v.
inQ at n total for the year 1893 he has had
to be content with estimates of the grow.
ing crops. In each Of these cases he has
allowed for rather over full average
crop except in the case OF Australasia,
which Is SO far advanced as to be chlcu-
alone the increase In the 3rop is extraord.
mary, the total this year reaching 81, Co.,
600 bushels, or IL, 1000, 900 bushels more
than the previous biggest yield; enough
to provide an exportable surplus of over
"a, 600, 600 bushels. Other totals are equal
" surprising, and the grand total for the
worlds crop Of .607 00O. 600 bushels, COM
increase of 1886. 300. 900 bushels, is sufficient
guarantee that the world is in no danger
of famine just at present.
The crop of the United States has been
calculated at $50, 600, 600 bushels, total
that is stated by many authorities ON this
side to be too low, but in every case the
figures are conservative. Russia, from
which country complaints have recently
been heard of drought, is still calculated
as having produced 10000. 600 bushels,
or, including Poland and Caucasia,
which do not come under the head of
Russia proper, a96, 900, 900 bushels, COM
pared with 2S5 ,000. 600 last year. Esti.
mates on the French crop havs differed
considerably Of late, ranging from
339, 600, 900 to 3Sl, 000, 600 bushels, buU here
again Mr.. Broomhall strikes an average,
with GAS, 900. 900, the unusually poor crop
Of last year. Taking European countries
alone, we find that the totals exceed those
Of last year by 235, 500, 900, bushels, the
principal increases, apart from those al
ready mentioned being in Italy, 40, 000,-
600; in Houmania, 1900, 900: in Hun.
gary. 10000. 900, and in the United King
tires which fall below last years totals
are Spain. 10000, QUO; Germany. 1905, 600;
Portugal, 1900, 600; and Sweden, 800, 900.
In America the United States shows
gain of go, 900, 600; Canada, II, coo, 900, and
Argentina. 10,000,000; while Mexico,
Chill and Uruguay also show slight
gains, tile total amounting to $4,000
bushels over last year. In Asia we find
tho only real falling off, the total being
3l2, 600, coo, against 1882. 000, 900. Turkey
in Asia and India are the two principal
delinquents, the former producing 10, Co.,
OCO and the latter 5000, 600 bushels less
than last year. Africa shows gains all
along the line, Algeria, Tunis. Egypt and
the Cape all helping to form the in
crease of IL, 0O0,0 900 bushels with which
she is credited.
Although the world Is confronted with
the largest wheat crop ever produced, 1T
must not be Immediately concluded that
the statistical position of wheat is very
bearish. for other considerations have to
be taken into account. The present crop
has been proceeded by three years of com-
paratively small crops, and reserves have
been drawn upon to such an extent to
production that they are now acknowl-
edged to be at the lowest point recorded
for years.
Unfortunately it is impossible to obtain
exact figures Of the worlds stocks, there
being no means of accurately knowing
what the invisible supplies amount to,
but in estimating the actual reserves on
the 1st day OF August this year at 112, :
600, 600 bushels MIR. Brocmhall is prob
ably somewhere near the mark. Adding
this total to the worlds crop. we find
that the total supply of wheat available
during the cereal year 1898 amounts to
ais, 900, 600 bushels. Following the same
course with the records of previous years,
we find that in 1895 the total crop OF
wheat was 2, 42O, 100 900 bushels, and tho
reserves 1856, 600, 600. making . total of
2. 716, 100, 600 bushels, or very close to this
years total while in 1894, the banner
year, although the crop was less than
this years, amounting to 2, 58H. 500, 600,
vet the reserve amounted to 1875, 900 600,
making a total available supply OF
2, Ole, 600. 600, bushels, or larger supply
BY 1g7, 300, 600 bushels than we have now.
Looking at it in another way, we find
that the total crops Of the four last years
are smaller by 843. 900 bushels than
the crops of the four preceding years, and
that the average crop of the past four
years is 2,415,600,000, compared with
3, sol. 400, O0O, the average crop of the pre-
ceding four years.
Since 1894 the population of the world
has been increasing at the rate of G, Geo..
600 people year, according to Sir Will
liam Crookes, and THUG, comparing the
present situation with that in 1894. we
find that with 1871, $40, 100 bushels less
available, we have a population "a, 600, 900
larger TO feed. 1t stands to reason there
fore, that there is no reason for prices 10
M Ia