New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1898-04-04
THE WEEKS OPERATIONS IN STOCKS

THE WEEKS OPERATIONS IN STOCKS.
Possibly the stock operators who have sold
their holdings at a loss are better off than those
people who are buying at the current level in
the confident belief that prices have touched
bottom" A certain class Of Wall Street follow
ers believe that the shrinkage IN stock values
since the Maine explosion has discounted all the
evil effects OF actual war; and this theory
they advise the purchase Of securities at present
prices. There other people who assert that
the declaration Of war will bring about lower
quotations than those reached in the break on
March II. and they believe that the influence
OF war upon the countrys business and upon
investment sentiment will be such as TO prevent
the maintenance Of active bull movement
Assuming that war is inevitable 1t is natural to
infer that money market conditions Will not he
favorable 20 bull speculation In stocks. I; is
also logical to expect heavy selling movement
OF securities by people who. in times Of interna-
t!onal trouble and business uncertainty prefer
TO convert their securities possessions into cash
Merely as a matter OF bdsness high money
market would cause a depreciation In the esti
nation Of capital of investments paying from 8
to per interest.
A Government loan. which must Of necessity
be made in the event Of war. would most likely
attract considerable money now invested in rail-
road stocks and bonds. The Government would
probably find II necessary 10 absorb from $780,
600 900 to 100000. 900. and possibly more, for
the purposes Of war. and money which now
looks dear at per cent would be considered al
most cheap at II per cent Because the banks
have been placed upon war footing 1t does
not follow that they have arranged their affairs
in order TO extend accommodation 10 stock
speculation. and nobody should presume that
4 IN cold ipopO al
to be used for stock market purposes alone An
idea that the banks are taking precautions
simply for the benefit OF the stock market is not
IN accordance with known banking principles
When money is a drug on the market accom-
mediation cheap rates Is readily given 10
stock spectators. but in times when other de-
mands have TO be considered the stock specua-
tors interest falls into the background and 1t is
only possible for him 10 loans at rates too
high 10 make his speculation profitable. The
importation OF gold at this period OF the year re-
fleets the soundness OF business and monetary
conditions in this country. but il does not afford
an absolute safeguard for the stock market
against further depression in values or insure
speculation against the possibilities o. strn-
gent money market in the event OF war.
Sentiment and imagination play a leading
part in speculation. If. as some brokers say.
the decline In values has been due entirely 70
these factors II is hard 20 accept the theory
that in case Of values will Immediately
move toward higher level To many thought
full men 1t seems II sentiment and imagina-
ton are still capable of being depressed by
war that values Will sag TO lower limits War is
not calculated 10 inspire enthusiasm in business
circles A battle battle lost will have
a temporary effect upon sentiment and prices,
but it will not unless II be the deciding point.
shape the permanent course OF values or relieve
the uncertainty Of the business mind. The re-
alities Of war cannot make cheerful sentiment.
and II stock values in time of war are 10 be gov
erned by sentiment. higher prices do not appear
probable. People who speculate In stocks at
present take big chances, and the small mar
ginal trader is not in a favorable position for
securing profits on either side OF the market
The course of values last week guided in
great part by powerful manipulation and by
buying by people who thought that the presence
Of prominent operators in the market Indicated
a peaceful settlement OF the Cuban question.
Such a belief weakened at the close. and those
who had been led 10 renew their operations in
stocks on the assumption that good buying was
in progress were made to realize how thorough
" they were deceived. The greater part of last
weeks buying was unsound and Of A transitory
nature 1t is a rare time for scientific manipu-
lation OF values, and unit; uncertainty over the
Cuban matter is removed. the small operators
would better save their money The urgent de-
roand from an overestimated short account
helped the violent upward movement in the first
part Of the week. and the fact that the supply
OF stocks available for speculation was held by
the more prominent speculative leaders accentu-
ated the advances Monday. while a further
advance on Wednesday merely reflected that the
leaders had not disposed OF all their holdings
and still held the market under their influence.
Public speculative buyers were induced to buy
stocks on reports that the big houses had re-
ceived assurance of a peaceful settlement Of
the Cuban question; and many commission
house customers bought on the theory that
bull movement was under way. Naturally they
wanted to buy before 1t was too late. The
suit of the weeks transactions leaves a large
amount OF stocks in weak hands which must
come on the market in case OF war with Spain.