The age-herald., 1898-11-13

that the reduction has been nearly as great as in September. One of two things ap- parently must happen--either the present rate of consumption must shrink very con- siderably or the rate of production must be increased.
 "On the latter line there Is a popular fal- lacy. It is supposed that all that is neees- sary is to pull the throttle valve on idle capacity, and any quantity of stock will be forthcoming. The statement can be made without any hesitation that production in all crude forms is now at it's maximum rate on the level of prices now prevailing. We are producing about 100000 tons of pig iron less than on March 1, not because the demand has shrunk. for it has actually in creased, but because current prices do not warrant the operation of idle furnaces. It must be remembered that in spite of our enormous advance in improvement of fur mace plants the total estimated capacity of furnaces is still made up of a considerable percentage that can only run on high mar | kets. Our current rate of production Is less than H,OOO,0OO tons of pig in all forms. A rise la price of $1 per ton would perhaps add l0OO,0OO tons more within six months | and further rise of d might in second | six months bring in another million tons, ] making our total output perhaps 13 90o, 600 tons. That wouold be high-water mark on l the present development of coal mines and | furnace plants. If we shouold have a long sustained period of high prices we could doubtless reach 15O00, 900 tons. But 1t must De remembered that the last period of fur- mace building six or eight years ago proved 1 dlsastrous to most of those engaged in it, and capital has not been tempted in that di- rectfon for a long time. An occasional fur mace has been built to expand established or prosperous business or to increase the supply of Bessemer for large steel plants. Aside from this there has been pract ealy no furnace construction since 1890 and 1892
 "The desire of most of the large pro ducers both of iron and steel is to avoid any sudden and sharp rise in prices which would overstimuate production. It is well known, though that prices regulate themselves with entire disregard of what even the largest producers wish. If there is too much iron the price goes down; if there Is too little it goes up. It will be in- teresting to see what will develop when the large melters of ron begin to make their contracts for next year. There has been but little buying on large scale since the heavy movement in July and August; nevertheless, the principal producing inter- ests both north and outh have their capaci- ty pretty well engaged for three to six months ahead, while their yards are nearly bare of stocks. N
 ''The export demand is stronger than it has been at any time in the past. This is' due to two facts-the large expansion of business in Great Britain and on the Conti-. nent and the rapid depletion of stocks. It was but few years ago when Great Britt ain was carrying in her yards 100000 to 4000,000 tons of iron. This has been reduced to fa11fh nf hot itxr and tbn 1nl remnant is still going off at a rapid rate. The English have about reached their limit of production on markets like those now prevailing. They have plenty of idle ca- pacity, but it cannot be employed without loss to it's owners. Coke has steadily ir- creased in cost, and most of the ore has, to be imported.
 "Mr. Carnegie in a recent interview ex- pressed the opinion that our export trade was certain to grow steadily. It will do so if we have changed conditions in ocean freights. At present the scarcity of ocean room and the high pricey asked for 1t put a damper on the export movement. The ir- regularity of service and the arbitrafy methods of the steamship lines prove such a drawback that most of those who attaupt an export business in pig iron, retire from it in disgust. Our machinery and nearly all finished forms of iron and steel will con tinue to go abroad in increasing quantity.
 
 the most favorable conditions of ocean freights. In time we shall have a mer- chant marine which will be adequate to our needs, but it must come very slowly. It is a source of constant wonderment that American shipbuilding tonnage last year fell off one-half, while Great Britain in- creased nearly as much Most of the Scotch and English shipbuidlng firms have their works full for two or three years ahead.
 "The future of QUOT export trade is close 1y tied up with the development of our merL chant marine. We can beat the world In any other form of construction into which iron and steel mainly enter, and why we cannot do it in the building of ships is mystery. hear that the Maryland Steel company is filling up with work rapidly, and that other shipbuilding companies have bright prospects. The next year will certainly show a big increase of American bottoms
 '"rhe new development of steelmaking in Alabama will aid toward this. The Ala bama Steel and Shipbulding company which is an adjunct of the Tennessee Coal Iron and Railroad company, is pushing it's large plant, and before many months they should be turning out 1000 tons of steel a day. Subsidiary industries are being To- cated at Birmingham to utilize the product. One is large rod mill controlled by strong interests connected with the American Steel and Wire company. The natural outlet Of these Birmingham steel products will be for export although the south will call for a considerable quantity. There will be no need of the product appearing in northern markets in competition with northern ma kers. The Birmingham makers will get to the gulf ports at half the inland railway rate that our western steel makers pay. and they will have the advantage of cheap CT rates and cotton ships to leading English and Continental ports. There is a bright futI1re before the steel industry Of Ala bama, and the wonder is that the interests which poured their money in there so freely eight or ten years ago have not seized the advantage that was open to them long be- fore this.''