The gold leaf., 1898-09-08

AHeIICd Oul VI IISi ~o"e'S"s"s
Isolation, and Thrust Her Into the
Politics of the World.
Iosdon Spectator. Aug. 6th.)
1t certainly looks as If peace were
near, but for all that we are by no
means certain that the war is going to
end as quickly as some Of the foreign
correspondents believe. Americans.
like Englishmen, do not easily under
stand punctilios, but Spanlards VIII
fight doggedlv for them after they
have abandoned every substantial
point. and are, in fact, longing for
peace At the last moment, then,
spain NAV rive the war a new lease
OF life to save her face in some IN
significant particular. Still, the war
must end some time, and on lines
which are now practically settled
i. e., Spain will emerge with all her
Colonial Empire gone, unless the
Canaries the fortified posts on the
coasts Of Morocco, and the strip of
West African shore can be called
colonies. What i likely to be the
future of this new and concentrated
Spain? How will she fit into the
European system? What will be her
aims and aspirations as a nation,
and to which side will she incline in
the great European controversies? )?
These are the questions which Will
be asked with no little interest
directly the war is over, for let no
one suppose that because Spain is
beaten. and retires deeply wounded,
she will cease to be a subject OF con-
cern to European statesmen. Spain $
geographical position entirely pre-
cludes the possibility Of her sinking
into mere impotence and insigniti-
canoe The future Of Spain is bound
to interest the world. Judged from
an abstract standpoint, there are
many possibilities before Spain. For
example. if Spain possessed really
great statesman, and If she would
entrust herself freely to his hands,
he might in twenty years so reor-
raniZe the nation that she would be
far richer and stronger than she was
before the Cuban revolt. A Spanish
Peter the Great, by repudlating the
ma ior part of the debt, by substitute
ing an efficient standing army Of
sixty thousand men for the present
force, by cutting down taxes, by
hanging corrupt officials, and by
getting foreigners to develop the
minerals and the wines of Spain,
might still make a powerful nation
for Spain in her hardy noun
taineers and her brave seamen has
always the raw material of a great
people. We fear, however, that the
chances of any such savior of his
country arising are absolutel V nil.
As far as internal affairs 90, Spain
will either (D stagger on as she is
staggering now under the Queen
Regcnt-thc fault is, we readily
admit, not in the sovereign but in
her Instruments; (2) pass after a
civil war into the hands of Don
Carlos; or (3) become u Federal re-
public. If Don Carlos were a wise
man he would try to combine his
own rule with federalism. He would
that is. give absolute autonmy, with
sovereign assemblies, to aid the
provinces, and merely keep the
central government and the army in
his own hands supported by the
customs revenue. Another possi-
biIitv is loose federation of provin-
cial republics under the protection
Of France-an arrangement which
would soon make the republic of
Catalonia and Biscay mere satellites
of France. In all probability, how
ever, things will not happen exactly
i'll this way. What we expect to
happen is continuation of the
status quo, but of the status quo
under what will be virtually French
protection. Nothing, of course, will
be proclaimed; but little by little
France will obtain more or less
complete ascendency at Madrid. The
fact that France is now working
her hardest in order to smooth the
way for peace, and that Nj. Cambon
is acting as az Spanish plenipotentiary
under a Spanish commission, is a
sign of what is coming. France
never likes creating bad impression
in America, but she is running the
risk of even that in order to cham
pion more actively the cause of
Spain. When the war is over France
will be the friend who enabled
Spain to get out of 4 difficult place
without loss OF honor The next
move of France will doubtless be a
l. al
attempt on the part of the Partisan
tinanciers. acting with the approval
of the French government. to unravel
the tangle of Spanish Indebtedness
In exchange for all these good offices
France will probably not ask any
thing formal or open. She will be
content with an understanding that
Spain shall no longer oppose her in
Morocco. and possibly with a secret
military and naval convention pro-
viding for what will be called Span
ish 'neutralitv" at CeutS, Algeciras,
and the Canaries in case France be-
comes involved in war with a
maritime power, i. e., England. In
any ease, Spain will come out of the
war unuer the wing OF france and
virtually under France iiluence That
is very important fact. TO begin
with it frees France from all further
dread of an attack from across the
Pyrenees in addition to one from
across the Alps in case of war with
the Triple Alliance. Hitherto there
has always been an uneasy feeling in
France as to whether it would be
safe to leave the rich and prosper
Gus provinces which lie under the
Pyrenees and along the course OF the
Canal du Midi entirely denuded OF
troops. and unprotected in case OF
war on the German and Italian
frontiers. With Spain under French
influence the risk will be run with
out any serious qualm>. But this is
equivalent to giving an additional
hundred thousand men to Franco in