Evening star., 1898-09-19
WHEAT GROWING SCARCE
Sir William Orooke Sees Universal Dearth
in Prospect.
President of the British Association
Predicts That the Acute Stage
VIII Come In 1881.

! The New York Sun Of today prints the ad-
| dress of Sir William Crooke before the
| British Association at Bristol on Scp:em-
| Der 10. in which he reviews the matter Of
| the worlds food supply. Taking wheat as
| the article Of food in which the English
| are most interested, the speaker devoted
most of his remarks to the past and pros
pectfve production of that cereal.
In brief, Sir William predicts a universal
dearth Of wheat, which has already begun
and which will reach the actue pinching
stage by 1881, or within the time of gen.
Grafton.
Gong into statistics, the speaker said:
Wheat is the most sustaining food grain
| OF the great Caucasian race which IN
cludes the people of Europe, United States
| British America, the white inhabitants OF
South Africa, Austi ALASKA, parts of South
America and the white population of the
European colonies. OF late years the indi-
Vldual consumption of wheat has almost
universally increased In Scandinavia K
| has risen 100 per cent in twenty-five years;
| IN Austrla-H ungary, 50 per cent: in France
20 per cent. while in Belgium it has in
creased 30 Der cent
only in Russia and Italy, and possibly
turkey. has the consumption Of wheat per
| he ad declined.
In 1871 the bread caters of the world
numbered 3t1 t1,OUOoJ. In 1881 the numbers
rose to 4l6,OoO000: in 1891 to 412 coo GOO
and at the present time they number Sic
pooN~ The augmentation of the WORLDS
pread-eating population in geometrical
ratlo Is evidenced by the fact that the
yearly aggregates grow progressively
| aIger In the early seventies they rose
4,5b,C0O FER aTinum, while III the eighties
they increased by more than 6.OO9n00 per
annum. necessitatii,g annual additions 20
the bread supply nearly one-half greater
lhan sufticed twenty-five years age. To
bread-eatiIS unit is to have his usua! ra-
tion. Will require a total of 2324 0na 600
bushels for seed and food. According to
the best authorities the total supplies for
the lS3I-9S harvest are 1921 600 6}3 bush
els. The requirement of the ZIG 500 900
bread eaters for seed and food are 232l :
eSoo bushels; there is thus a deficit of
4o3 000OO0 bushels, which mas not been
urgently apparent owing to a surplus oe
hh0t8W0 bushels carried over from the
last harvest.
Present Years Prospects.
Respecting the prospects of the harvest
year just beginning it must be borne in
mind that there are no remainders to bring
over from last harvest. We start with a
deficit of 1893 900 900 bushels and have 6 5o0-
600 more mouths to feed. The majority of
the wheat crops between 1882 and 1886 were
| in excess of current needs, and thus con-
siderable reserves Of wheat were available
Aoi experimenting small QeTlcitS from the
TOUR deficient harvests. But bread eaters
have almost eaten up the reserves of
wheat, and the 1897 harvest being under
average, the conditions become serious
Ihat scarcity and high prices have not pre-
vailed in recent years is due to the fact
| that since 1889 we have had seven world
crops of wheat and six of rye abundantly
! in excess of the average. These generous
crops increased accumulations to such an
extent as to obscure the fact that the har-
| vests of 1855 and 1896 were each much be-
low current requirements"
From this Sir William concluded that, re-
serves being practically exhausted bread
eaters must be fed from current haryests
| Even harvest equal to the record one of
| 1894 would yield less than current needs.
having drawn Ia s gloomy picture of the
present. Sir William considered the future
prospects. First of all. he examined the
two chief wheat-exporting countries of the
world, the United States and Russia The
| former he described as having been for
thirty years the dominant factor In the for
eisn supply of wheat exporting no less
than 145 100000 bushels Thus the bread
eating world has depended and still de-
pencs. on the United States for the means
| Of subsistence. But Sir William warns us
that the bread-eating world cannot for long
rely upon this supply. He says:
Worlds FoOd-Bearin- Area.
THE entire worlds contributions to the
| food-bearing area have averaged but 4,OOO,-
wv dSitS yearly Slice lSOJ II Is scarcely
possible that such an average under exist
ing conditions, can be doubled for the COM
ing twenty-five years. Practically there
remains uncultivated prairie land in the
United States suitable for wheat growing
The virgin land has been rapidly absorbed
until at present there is no land left for
wheat without reducing the area for maize
hay and other necessary crops. Ii is al
most certain that within a genera ton the
eVer-lncreasing population of the United
States will consume all the wheat grown
within its borders, and will be driven to
import, and, like ourselves, will scramble
for lions share of the wheat crop of the
world. The withdrawal of 145 900 $50 bush
els Will cause serious gap in the food sup
ply of wheat-importing countries, and un-
less this deficit can be met by increa sed
supplies from other countries there will be
| a dearth for the rest of the world after the
British Isles are sufficiently supplied"
Sir William then went on to explain that
| the situation in Russia " as even less prom
ising than in the United States as Russia
las a population whose prospective needs
for rapidly increasing population promise
to soon encroaci on the productive supply
He alluded to the vast wheat areas of
Canada and Australia, but found that the
new lands were only being brought under
cultivation as local needs seemed to re-
qCire. while the older lands were gradually
losing their virgin productivity.
Pinch Comes in 1891.
gives the world until 1881 to feel the acute
pinch. He says:
Should all the wheat-growing countries
add to their area TO the utmost capacity.
on the most careful calculate the yield
would give us only an addition of some
lOO,o0,OOO acres, supplying, at the average
world yield of 12.7 bushels to the acre
- t,Zo,Ho,ooo bushels, Just enough to supply
the increase of population among bread
eaters till the year 1881. At the present
time there exists a deficit In the wheat area
or 31,0 square miles-a deficit masked by
the fact that the ten World crops of wheat
harvested in the ten years ending 1896 were
more than per cent above the average of
the previous tWenty-six years When pro-
vision shall have been made if possible. to
iced 10000 OOO units likely to be added to
the bread-eating populations by 1031-by
the complete occupancy of the arabic areas
OF the temperate ZoEe now partially occu-
p:ed-where can be grown the additional
S3o,ON,OOO bushels of wheat required ten