The San Francisco call., 1898-11-08
CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES
WATERS AND NEEDHAM LEAD
 FOR CONGRESS.
Head of the Republican Ticket Closes
 His Campaign With Visit ITs to the Soldiers Home.
Special Dispatch to Tho Call.


 be one of the hardest-fought politica battles in progress in over a thousand precincts in the six counties this sid of Tehachapi Mountain, that ha! ever been known in the history of tht State.
 x At, the branch Republican State Headquarters the managers in charge this evening declare that a conserva- tive estimate gives Henry T. Gage al feast 5000 plurality to the base ot Tehachapi Hill. Los Angeles County will, it is conceded by conservative Democrats, give the head of the Re publican State ticket between 25e9 and 5000 majority. San Diego is good for between 800 and 7OO the managers of the Senatorial candidacy of U. S. Grant being particularly desirous that his home county shall at this time make a good showing. Orange County is good for 300, Riverside for 500, San Bernardino for 200, Ventura for 250 and Santa Barbara for 300 more.
 E. L. Hutchison, fusion candidate for Lieutenant Governor, will be woefully scratched in this, his home county, by old line Democrats. MT. Hutchison is just finishing a two-year term as Populist member of the City Council of Los Angeles.
 Henry T. Gage arrived this morning, looking none the worse for the wear and tear of his ten weeks campaign of the State.
 'I have visited f1fty-one out of fifty three counties in the State" said he to The Call correspondent to-day. T am fully convinced that the entire Repub- ncan State ticket will be elected to- morrow. The Legislature also will be safely Republican. The administration of President Mckinley vii be indorsed by the lection Of at least five out of seven Congressmen."
 The Republican candidate had a very busy day. From 10 o'clock until noon he shook hands with thousands of his friends and neighbOrs at the Columbia Club, where a general reception was given in his honor. In the throng were hundreds of the best known Democrats in this county, who came to personally extend assurances of support.
 At l o'clock MT. Gage, with Russell J. Waters, candidate for Congress, pro- ceeded to the Soldiers Home, where the last rousing meeting of the campaign was held, both candidates being re- ceived with unbOunded enthusiasm by the 1900 inmates of the home. Tonight Mir. Gage and MT. Waters held another reception, rendered by members of the Republican Army and Navy League.
 Of the two Congressional districts which lie largely in point of votes south of Tehachapi, Russell J. Waters. Re- publican in the Sixth District, is cer- tain to defeat Charles A. Barlow. Popu- list. It is only a question as to what Waters majority will be Conservative figures place it at between 2500 and 5000. The district runs from Santa Cruz to Los Angeles down the coast.
 In the Seventh District the race is IL l. ID lcan, and Castle, Populist, with indi- cations favorable to Needhams cleo tion because of the clause in the Ding ley bill placing a tariff on citrus fruits.
 In this county the two Republican State Senators are certain to be elect ed, 4. T. Currier in the Thirty-eighth and c. M. Simpson in the Thirty sixth. There will certainly be four Repub- lican Assemblymen, with two districts in doubt-the Seventy and Seventy-t third. The last named prob ably is Democratic, as it sent two years ago one of the only two straight Demo- crats elected to the Legislature south of Tehachapi
 Only one Senator outside of this county Is to be elected in this part of the State this year. A. E. Mutt, Re- publican will succeed D. L. Withfng- ton in the San Diego District.
 The fusionists two years ago elected J. L. Dryden, Populist, Assembiyman from San Diego County This year he will be succeeded by J. D. Works Jr, son of ex-Associate Justice of the Su- prene Court Works.
 So far as district nominations on the Republican State ticket are concerned Judge N. Blackstock of Ventura County will have his full party vote for Railroad Commissioner and the votes of many Democrats, who refuse to stand by Dryden. the Populist uomi- George oI,a,, ,f the State Board of Equalization, may fall behind, owing to an opposition in this, his home county, led by Brigadier General Otis Los Angeles Times Betting odds tonight are 100 to 90 that Arnold will be defeated His friends, however, are standing by him nobly and they may turn the tide in his favor. His opponent is Thomas o. Poland. former Assemblyman from Ventura County.
 The fusionists closed their local campaign with meetings at Pasadena and here, addressed by Senator White and others. They claim to feel hope ful and make extraordinary predic- tions.
 Nathan Cole Jr., who has been tba life of the fusion campaign in this end of the State, gives the Republican ticket not more than 1500 majority this side of the mountain. He insists Barlow will run Waters a close race TOT congress.
 Weather Bureau predictions indicate fair weather for tomorrow which at the Republican county and branch State headquarters is taken as an as surance that the full Republican vote will be cast. This is ali that is nec- essary to make a certainty of the nrs- dictions here outlined.
 This evening eleven ward meetings were held by Republicans in different parts of the city They were addressed by Gage, Blackstoek, Arnold, Waters and various Assembly candidates. i Everywhere the greatest enthusiasm was shown. and the various gatherings were all attended by large number of l voters. At 10 o'clock this evening the official canvass of the Republican | County Committee of this county was completed. It took four hours to add | various totals from 15T precincts. The l showing made astounded even the most confident Republicans. This flouse-to- | house canvass shows that Gage's ma | 3ority is 4460, and indicates the election 1