New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1898-03-24
RTSJNFSS LITTLE AFFECTED.

There are again efforts TO create 1eeihS
that husincss must be- checked because OF pos
sihili1ies of war The spectators for de-
cline in stocks have apparently inspired an ex-
,cnslye search for evidence Of depression in the
industries or decrease in' legitimate trade. WIN
results worth noting chiefly for their insignlh-
cancr But little consideration VIII lead
level headed men 10 the idea that important
changes OF that sort are not 70 I've expected.
II is not as If a struggle were unprecedented IN
which large part of the population would De
withdrawn from productive industry and en-
gagged in fighting The additions 10 the Army
end Navy rs yet contemplated are insignificant
and # 100000 volunteers should he called into
service for operations in Cuba even that would
not take one man in go from the ranks or
those engaged as .wageearncrs- not as many
as are probably idle from various temporary
causes and seeking work even in prosperous
times
The controlling fact is that no material
change caa he caused by any such conflict as
is deemed possible either in the number OF per
sons earning wages, in the amounts they nave
to spend for the support Of themselves and
families in the quantity Of products they VIII
require for consumption. or in the demand for
going shipping Of the United States is compare
lively small. and much Of It In the Pacific
Ocean or in the Atlantic coastwiSe service, and
while hostile privateers could nfict some IN
Jury they could not sustain themselves in con
tinued operations along far-distant coasts for
want of fuel Excepting this industry, there
is scarcely one which is liable to be apprpciably
affected by such a foreign war rs Is in ques-
h.r
from disturbance, as are trade with adjacent
countries the Pacific Coast trade both near and
distant becauSe Spanish vessels Will he needed
nearer home, and all the great lines OF trans
portation by land in Atlantic States
II is probably true that in a few branches
Of business there is some disposition 70 defer
engagements of magnitude for little, because
of the common impression that a state of war
leads to higher prices. But except with refer
ence to the limited number of products directly
required for in war, that impression itself
is erroneous Ammunition. weapons, plates for
shipbuilding will be in greater demand, but no
small increase in the Army or Navy adds to
the number of people to be fed or clothed, or
apprcciably lessons the number Of those en-
gagged in production. Even when the Civil War
began. and several hundred thousand men We're
purposes the range Of prices for all commodi-
ties continued lower than in 1860 until after
May 1862 more than year
The spectators calculate that uncertainty al
WAYS has a depressing influence while It lasts,
and therein are right. II men have to face the
possibility that depressing uncertainty may last
for months they naturally hesitate TO buy out
side of legitimate trade. But the instant I'M
certainty ends. and actual war begins, men
turn to calculations regarding the future which
can be based largely on known facts and forces.
From that time the controlling influence IS
likely to he the conviction that the country can
sustain no serious harm. and that in no case
can the difficulty be much prolonged. Then
the question Of actual business and earnings
will begin 70 be considered. and there is likel
hood of advance rather than decline In specu-
lative and other properties.