The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1898-08-15

WhBIN. HIS Dttll lNk hVA ChANF III AehH ANllt
,ho sock market has entered upon a cycle OF
activity which will last several months. Money
"a ,,oily borrowed at low rates. the crops
n.or,Iso to be large. and to bring good. II
10, nigh prices. tho earnings Of the railroads
.ro satisfactory. and peace with Spain has.
nroctically. been concluded. All those favor
iii, Influences. coming as they do after a long
,criod oi depression aud inactivity, should,
fortunately. stimulate buying and promote
,neculation for a rise. A reaction may occur
nitcr a WHILE. but. for the present. IL Is premn-
,ture to reckon upon IL.
Tho interesting question now Ia. whether this
rsnewcd activity in the stock market betokens.
"a II has done in previous instances. q like re-
neUed activity in other branches OF business.
Az tho coming on of financial disaster FIRST ex-
bIbits itself in a fall in the prices Of securities.
Az. II may be presumed. the advent OF financial
rr,spcrity is heralded by q corresponding rise
in them. Straws show which way the wind
blows. while heavier objects remain unmoved.
and stocks and bonds. which are moro easily
add than merchandise. indicate a change in
tbe financial atmosphere before it affects COM
modities in general. Under the pressure OF an
increased demand for money and a contraction
OF bank credits. the stock market gives way, as
the mercury in the barometer gives way at the
spproach OF a storm. Conversely. under easy
money and an expansion OF bank accommoda-
lions. n rise in general prices is usually pre-
oeded by one in stocks.
Nevertheless, the elements OF the financial
world are as tickle as those Of the natural. and
"A the weather demonstrations of the most
.killed observers are. as we see, frequently con-
1rpdicted by the event, so in financial affairs
obe forecast OF experienced observers cannot be
absolutely depended upon as correct. It IL not
that. in either case. there is any uncertainty as
N the workings Of the forces involved. but that
our knowledge OF these forces is more or less
Imperlect. The astronomer. for.example. can
hretell eclipses OF the sun and moon. and com
pute the orbits Of planets and OF comets. be-
cause he hns ascertained, with tolerable COM
p~leteness. the elements necessary to his calcu-,
%iatioDs, but as has been demonstrated in many
striking Instances, where these elements are de-
fective or erroneous. the deductions drawn from
them are erroneous and defectiyelikewise. This
being the case with inanimate matter. much
more should the action OF the human mind DO
difficult to predict in advance. The philoso-
pher, DESCRIBES. says. rightly, that, given an ac-
curate account Of all the motives to which a
man il subjected. his conduct could be FORE
told as easily as can the motions OF the heav-
eniy bodies. but who can be sure that he knows
all the motives involved in the problem ? He
may know ninety nine Of them, and yet. for
lack OF an acquainta1ce with the ~hundredth.
his calculations wouhH come to naught. This
is the reason why scientific economists SO often
err in their conclusions. They assume that men
IN business affairs are governed by self interest
alono. and that the desire OF p~ecuniary gain is
their supreme incentive to action. whereas. as
as a little reflection will show. they are suseep-
tible TO various other passions. any one Of
which may at times dominate the others.
On general principles. when the harvests OF q
country are good. as ours were last year. and
when the surplus has been sold as ours has
been. at high prices to foreign countries, n
when those same countries are buying. as
they have been buying lately from US. man
u~ractured goods in large quantities. the re-
suit is 20 enrich the country thus favored and
to distribute among its citizens a large amount
Of money. For the year ending June 80, 1893.
the merchandise exports OF tho United States
exceeded the merchandise imports by $780,
100000. and though much Of the balance
In our favor was consumed In paying interest
and dividends due to the foreign owners Of
capital invested here. and in a partial return TO
them Of that capital. we still received over
800. 100000 in gold. a large part Of which
went. Indirectly. to our farmers and planters.
and the rest TO the artisans employed in manu-
featuring Industries. The immediate effect
o! the acquisition of so much money
would be. in the absence Of counteractinR
influences. an increased buying Of consum-
able commodities. and thus an increased vol
ume Of trade. How sailors scatter their pay
when they come ashore after a long voyage.
how reckless gold miners are in their expendi-
ture when they have made a lucky strike.
and how eItravagant young heirs are when
they come suddenly in possession Of for
tunes. are matters OF common experience.
Yet npningf fhia HioD6Gifihn IN cnnpH Nn,rl,
acquired wealth must be set the equally
powerful though not SO general diSposI-
ton to hoard. There are misers as we'll as
spendthrifts, and between the two extremes
are numbers who. while going to neither OF
them. are divided in their impulses. some be-
ing comparatively lavish. and others compare
lively parsimonious. Evidently. II the misery
and the saving tendency prevails, 1t will more
than counteract the impulse to spend. and will
thus prevent an increase Of wealth from in
creasing trade.
The restrictive effect upon business OF a pre-
dominant disposition to hoard money rather
imam to spend it. Is rendered all the greater
by the circumstance that much of every
body's expediture is for ~luxurles. the purchase
OF which Is a matter Of choice. and not for nee
esssries, which cannot be dispensed with. The
poorest paid laboring man devotes q consider
able portion Of his wages TO beer, spirits and
pooacco: ms food Is much more costly than il
need be merely to sustain his strength and
heHlth' and his family have their little pleas
ures. which. triiling as they seem, consume
more or less Of his earnings. How much peo-
pie with larger incomes. especially those who
arc very wealthy, spend upon Injuries in com
larlson with nccessaries. is notorious. Most OF
mem could, II they chose. exist on a tenth OF
Their habituRl outlay. Indeed. taking society
from toy to bottom, it may safely be said that
Nsnrhds ten times as much as II needs to.
Alter the panic Of 1893 n wave OF frugality
passed over the country. as the result OF i'm
pa'fcu incomes. partly because those incomes
no longer sullred for the previous scale OF
hN'nG OF those who received them. but more
80 "ecause the margin OF the surplus for ad.
u''iphs 10 capital was reduced, It became the
inshioh to be thrifty and saving. even when
,'er" was no Necessity for it. The newspapers
'"o Pul'Nt' and moralists in general inveigheJ
uS""lSI 'NtraNogHnce as a sin, aud the giving
VI H" ,ahcP dress ball in this metropolis. by Q
gum mn anal l.