New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1898-05-04
THE WHEAT SITUATION.
,Asr YEARS YIELD UNDEREsT1MATED
BY THE GOVERNMENT.
,r EXTRAORDINARY EXPORTS OF CORN AND
WHAT THEY INDICArE-THE WORLDS
DEFICIT AND NEEDS

WHAT THEY INDICATE-THE WORLDS
DEFICIT AND NEEDS.
.,e Editor Of The Tribune
c,r The end OF April has brought more convinc-
evidence as has been st aadily predicted that
w. Weld Of wheat last year has been much
so-es,irnated by the Government even in the
,o.est revision just published. According to that
-. cron was $50 40 1863 bushels and the visi-
We supply June 26. 1897, increased by e-half
-. allowance for commercial supplies not visible.
os about IS 100000 bushels Against this
.c-arate supply Of 55SOOOO0O bushels we
,ove q wears consumption for seeding. at least
"a 400 600 bushels; hvc-sixths Of a years con-
,,,ntion for food at the rate which prevailed
..- MANY years 2S6OO0 900 bushels and 1872
ooo 600 bushels exported. including -four, or
roo 200 600 bushels disposed Of already. leaving
Oh 600 900 bushels. not enough TO eat for two
,oonths nothing to export and nothing for the
,isble supply July l. Nobody believes that out
~ 36OOOOO0 bushels remaining in the country
&C much as %. 2G3. 900 bushels could be N visible
supply last Saturday. or that with wheat still
ming forward at the rate of 5 2S3 100 bushels
,.st week and .211 90 Monday. stocks have
been so reduced that the country has not enough
lef to eat.
Within two months we shall be able TO deter
mine how far the best commercial estimates
rs-, out ot the way Western supplies come IN
rrors largely than for several months. and there
"a no sign OF cessation OF exports. But unless
both stop soon II Will be demonstra ted for all
practical purposes that the most trustworthy
and the largest Of commercial estimates was
not large enough Mr. Snow put the yield at
100000 bushels. which, with visible supply
on June % IS 1913. 900 bushels. and half as much
more for commercial supplies not visible, would
provde for distribution during the crop year
6l71s9 500 bushels. The Treasury estimate or
population -, ?37 900 at the beginning OF the
crop year and "a 49,. 900 April l, is advanc-
ing 2G5. 600 IN TWO months. which would make
the population 74.3S7 900 at the end Of the crop
year. and the mean for the year 13,6o2,OO. AT
the rate which was by all accepted as CORE
spending with facts for many years, until De-
partment crop estimates went crazy, namely.
42-3 bushels per capita. the consumption for
food would be 343.1J6.ooo bushels during the
year and the Department and other estimates
agreed on "a O0O.tNp bushels as about the guam
tity required for seed before the recent revision
increased the estimate o: acreage about five
millions. With 391. $4,000 bushels required for
food and seed. and 80 POI. LAG bushels exported
already, besides two days Pacific shipments not
yet reported the estimate OF Mr.. Snow would
leave less than 37,o29ccO bushels for export in
two months and for stocks on July |.
II now seems exceedingly probable that
ports alone will dispose OF good par. Of that
quantity. since 31973.S75 bushels have gone
out in March and April. besides two days from
the Pacific Coast. But the world Will have
very accurate knowledge of the fact II the
visible supply gets down as low as 100000
bushels or twice that quantity. In fact. il would
not be so reduced without greater advance In
prices than anybody considers possible although
Il has all the time been deemed probable that
the world would need and take about 100000
bushels more Of American wheat, or 2l2WD.o'O
bushels for the crop year. II it could be sup
piled at any commercially practicable cost.
Thus the situation already shows that the com
petent men in the market do not believe the
yield IN 1897 small that ordinary con-
sumption. with continuance Of exports at about
the current RAE. would entirely exhaust the
supply If the exports go without putting
the price materially higher than it has been yet
the world will count upon finding in the coun-
try at the end OF the crop year quantity con-
siderabiy larger than could have remained IL
MI Shows estimate were not too low.
The one marvel Of this crop year. the extraor-
binary exports Of corn. Of wheat. In the
same year, continues to prove that the world
deficit and needs neither imaginary nor
exaggerated in reports. This year l5J.IOOOoo
bushels or corn nave gone III iI'itN.4
and II two bushels be reckoned no more in use
than one bushel OF wheat. this quantity would
take the place Of 100000 bushels. Early in
the crop year It conceded that the outside
world would probably have need OF nearly
100000 900 bushels American wheat or iis
equivalent. and the quantity actually supplied.
already the equivalent OF 5000 900 bushels.
Will not fall far short II present appearances DO
not mislead II was commonly agreed that the
country had large quantity Of old corn brought
over from 1896, 10 make up for any shortness OK
Yield last fall and the records begin 10 anord
some evidence that such supplies were larger
than was supposed. 1t has been wonderful
year for the country. In happy coincidence OK
enormous supplies and unprecedented foreign
demand and the effect upon the condition OF the
country in the presence OF foreign difficulty
may prove more important than any can now
anticipate. W. NJ IT,
New-York. May 2. 1898.