The Wichita daily eagle. [volume] (Wichita, Kan.) 1890-1906, 1898-05-10
The Scarcity of Wheat.


miliar phenomena of trade; therefore, few
people were surprised when the wheat
market began to advance with some vio-
lence last month, Immediately before and
after our rupture with the Spanish gov
eminent. What did, however, surprise
many people who had not kept close track
of the worlds current grain statistics,
was the failure of the market to decline
again after Commodore Dewey's vic
tory, when sentiment rather rushed to
the conclusion that the Spanish war would
Certainly be short.
| Not only would such reaction have been
natural, if the advance had been occa-
stoned wholly by the war, but 1t had al
ready penetrated the minds of most people
| that in this war the influences which
| sometimes make wheat dear in such a
contest could not operate. Grain may
advance, on the outbreak of a war.
| through belief in possible blockade of
grain-producing states, or misgiving that
| their grain-carrying ships may be plum
dered by the enemy. Such expectation
would. OF course. lead foreign importers
to increase their orders for quick deIiv-
cry of wheat. and thus advance the price.
But the notion of blockade of the United
States coast by Spain was Immediately
seen to be absurd. Moreover. our grain
| is sent to Europe in neutral bottoms. and
| is, consequently, exempt from capture. 1t
might, therefore. have been imagined that
if the war argument" alone were forcing
up the price of wheat. little reasonable
afterthought would start the market NOV
ing in the opposite direction.
The undoubted truth of the matter is,
in the opinion of the New York Evening
Post, that the so-called war scare" in
the wheat market has played this season
an indefinitely less important part than
the extraordinary situation of the worlds
grain-producerS The deficient foreign har-
vests of 1896, followed by the partial or
complete crop failures of last year in
France, Austria, India. Argentina, and
Australasia, left the consuming world nee
essarily with a very small margin of sup
plies in storehouse wherewith to tide over
the interval until another harvest The
worlds total wheat crop OF 1897, as esti-
mated by commercial experts, fell short
more than a hundred million bushels OF
providing enough of new supplies to meet
the average annual needs OF wheat-con-
sumers. The inevitable result was that
the so-called visible supply in home and
foreign granaries was drawn down to the
smallest volume in generation.
price dOh1llSSO " . AAShCA ShOHNS
level, and the advance drew into market
good part OF those secondary supplies
known to the wheat market as the farm
reserves" In particular, demand in
creased abnormally for export wheat from
the United States, which had the extraor-
binary fortune, last year, or raising one
of the largest wheat crops In its history.
In the face of the extreme European scar
city. Usually, our export OF grain slack
ems in the spring. But during April our
wheat exports rose to a magnitude quite
unexampled for the season. The weekly
estimated shipments from this country
last month were double or treble the av-
erage shipments of the same weeks during
the past dozen years; last week, for in
stance. the estimate was 100000 bush
els, against only LBS, $50 in the closing
week of April. 1897, and 2,77S.0O0 even in
1894 In March the country shipped abroad
by the returns Of the bureau of statis-
ties, very nearly twice as many bushels
in wheat and -four. as it sent out in the
same month of 1897. The question began
to be asked, with some uneasiness, how
long even the heavy surplus left over
from last years wheat crop in the United
States could continue to supply the needs
of Europe. The Indian and South Amer
lean crop, which is harvested between No
vember and April, has this year again
turned out disappointing. Our own winter
sown wheat and the crop of Southern
Europe DO not move until June, and
meantime, on top of the almost or quite
volume of wheat exports
from this country thus far in the sea-
son, the American visibly supply has
within a fortnight begun to shrink at the
ofa million hush
els weekly Under the circumstances, it
is not surprising that the mere sugges-
ton, however illogical, of a war blockade
of American supplies, should have start
ed an advance in wheat prices which gath
cred force as it continued, and which was
not checked even when the war scare"
itself was dissipated.
We shall not undertake any prediction
as to the probable course of wheat prices
during this extremely interesting interval
before the new crop of 1898 is harvested.
To judge with any accuracy such proba-
bilities, the exact size of last years Amer
lean harvest must be known, and, un-
fortunately, all the estimates in that re-
gard are more or less discredited. The
forecasts of our growing crops, on the
other hand, are matter of unusual inter
est That a very much larger acreage
should have b. en- planted by our wheat
per cent increase is estimated
is certainly not surprising, in view of
the high level Of prices now SO long main
tanned by the wheat markets. 1t is graf
flying on all accounts to observe also,
from current commercial estimates, that
the promise of the American crop is at
the moment decidedly better, even, than
1t was at this time a year ago.
While it is highly improbable that any
such shortage of new supplies could ex-
list as that of 1897. it is at the same time
pretty certain that the demand from Eu-
ropean wheat-importers will continue very
heavy.