New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1898-02-27
financial
The Financial World.

have waiting spell. which meara dg,lness vv,.,
saggiDg prices. We had our smash on Thur.
day our rally Friday. and yesterday a quiet scr,
OF market with indications that there was sim
some more recovery to come. II was a pre,,,
big tumble. and some operators have drawn .,
from the bear side for the moment This mean.
that we have a twenty -four hours bull move.
ment on hand. But after that?
Tho situation which brought ahou, the a-o,
remains the same except 50 far as It has been
discounted By the d-op That situation !,
summed mp In words Il 20 be peace or war,
The decline IN the price Of Government bond,
can be Interpreted IN no other way than as BE-.
traying the apprehension o. the houses leal,n,
in them that the supply may be lncrea-ed. :,
other words more Issues. This is more slgna.
| cant Of the state Of mind In financial circles nor.
! than the smash In the stock market since an
! impending decline In that was palpably evlden,
| before tho Maine disaster. II would have been
slower In working itself out without that met.
dent; but II would have come Jus. the same and
probably would have strucl, bottom AT about N.
same level We must therefore accept the fan
In the price Of Governments az an indication %
apprehension on the part Of fnanclers here TIA,
the situation is one which may involve war n.
| first effect Of which would be the making =,
Government loans "a fight would probably
| cost between two and three hundred mlllions)
Against this can fairly balance foreign
| opinion which is the other way. When thu
omash came last Thursday. tho foreign buying
which had been conspicuous in tho market .or
two or three days preceding. was dou5led So
large was 1t that with the quickened demand
| for money here there was an immediate fan IN
| exchange rates, and engagements II gold tor
| import were announced next morning Now ~
hev 10 tber ffo -.
mediate danger Of war. they would not be buy.
ers at this level Of prices. They would wait IN
! I'll the inevitably lower range was reached which
! would como with the necessary action OF Con.
gress and the Executive in formally preparing
| for war, since 1t is sure that declaration Of
war would be discounted. and stocks be a pur.
chase on the day the declaration was made
II sometimes happens that observers abroad
can see a situation in any given country more
clearly than IL is seen by the majority II people
In that country itself The European nnancers
predicted our silver troubles long before they
came upon US. These same people are from
long experience verscd in international compli.
cations. and experts I'm measuring their probabls
workings and influence on markets. II is q rea-
sonable Inference that they are taking the meas.
ure of this Spanish trouble Of ours: ard their
purchases Of stocks on the recent declines mus,
to bet against the chances Of war.
or course. they may be mistaken. but that Is
evidently their present state Of mind They
know at least the Spanish situation. and the site
uation here is not in doubt The Administration
has made 1t clear TO ell the world that it will
preserve the peace II peace be possible: and the
Spanish Ministry knows well enough that X il
We're driven into war with the United States by
popular clamOr. 1t would be driven ont of Office
by the same clamcr on the inevitable failure Of
such a war II is we'll enough to talk Of pre-
serving the national honor and yielding only 70
superior force But some one always has 20 pay
the cost OF yielding that is, Of defeat. We saw
that recently in Greece where the pOpulace
forced the reluctant King into a war with Tur-
key. and then broke his windows and threatened
10 drive him out Of the country VIXEN the end
came which he had foreseen. The Spanish MINI
listers doubtless TO hold their Offices and 20
do this they must work'to avoid war. or even a
dangerous ciamor for II.
The foreign buyers are banking on this sltua-
ton: hut they would be prompt enough 70 sell X
they saw that the war spirit was rising high
enough either here or In Spain. 10 sweep the re-
sponsible officials off their feet--whioh Of course
Il might do We cannot tel, how Il IS with the
Spanish people but Il is obvious that very
SOLDERING effect has been produced on the public
mind hero. and has been stritirgly exemplife!
In Congress by the occurrence In times Of peace
Of a real incident II wa. II We We're actually n
the throes Of a fierce struggle. the loss OF bat
tie ship and go men would be worth as news
paper material. about half a column FOR the
men: and for the ship, as the more serious loss
because so difficult 70 replace. three or four
columns But the same incident I'm peace has 50
profoundly affected the public that everything
else is forgotten in the discussion o. IL. and o.
the possibilities that may grow out Of e, that
TO say the possible loss Of more battle ships and
more men. There is a state - high tension and
serious thought. so that the noisy clamor OF the
jingoes has been stilled: and even the deirum
tremens extras Of the Hourly War Cry create
only amusement disgust.
This makes for peace. for when men become
intensely serious, they are willing TO listen 70
reason There is need for cool reason now, 'or
allowing that the Maine disaster provoke no In
mediate trouble. the problem bend II sun
presses for solution: and there Is the uneasy
feeling among leading financial men that the
solution cannot be longer Gelayed-that as this
Cuban business cannot go on forever. the United
States Government is about TO be brought
straight up to making this plain proposition 10
the Spanish Government viz. either sell this
island or have II taken from you How this VIII
be taken by the Spanish people is the doubir!
Were II not for this imbr0gto. every
thing is favorable for the bull side Of specu4a-
ton. We have easy money, with ample credits
abroad 10 draw upon whenever needed goa
prices for grain: expanding trade large OK
ports. active business. After this regular Lenten
decline (somehow the market nearly always geo
a set back In the pcn!tential season. II would 90
ahead again swmmngy But with a grave po-
litical problem before US involving the issue OF
peace or war. conservative inanclers say Il Is no
time to bull the market. They counsel watrs'
until the situation becomes clearer.
II the issue be peaceful. there will be piping