Arizona republican., 1898-10-31


 days of the campaign are beginning With both candidates stumping the stat1 .ne managers of their headQuar- ters in this city are quietly footing up what they expect, based upon the com plete registration returns. Thsre is one significant concession regarding these returns, and it comes from John F. Carroll, Croker's personal repre- sentative and the manager of the pres ent local campaign. Carroll concedas that Van Wyck's vote will be cut down because of the light registration in the democratic wards of Greater New York. He has GU down his claim of a plurality Of 100000 for Van Wyck to 75,000, rrctably with the consent of Richard Croker. MT. Carroll, Senator Murphy and all the other democratic mana gers profess, however, that they are still confident
 In the consideration of registration results the careful observer always re- members these axioms: A light reg istratiOn always favors the democrats, while a heavy registration draws out the indifferent voters, and continuous results in elections show that the vote that comes from increased registration is cast on the sids Of good government. The democratic finale of the campaign r.f the democracy of Thomas Jefferson, led by Henry GeCfgs, caused loss in the registered vote of at least per cent. an increase of 2 per cent in the average loss. The registration this year, because of the vigilance of Su- perin.endent McCullagh, has fallen of 10,0G0 in round numbers, but is is eX- pected that, notwithstanding this, the total vote for governor will about equal that for mayor. The excitemsnt Of the canvass will induce 95 psr cent of the registered citizens to vote, and not 9S psr cent, as last year. So that conclu- sioDs as to the present canvass can safely be drawn ol last years mayor alty vote.
 In view of these introductory con- ci,isions, it is interesting to figure out inst what Tammany will have from the city to meet the republican majority at High Bridge. Assuming that the Tracy vote of 101, 1863 will 80 to Roose- welt, it must also be conceCssd for the purposes of calculation that the 233,- 997 votes cast for brother Robert for mayer will go to brother Augustus for governor This leaves the Low vote of l51, ,540 and the George vote of 21, 69S to be accCunted for. This was es- ssentiaily an anti-Tammany vote, and it was cast against Tammany when that organization had everything at stake, but for the purpose of fair po- litical arithmetic it may be assumed that one-fourth of the Low vote and two-thirds of the George vote will be cast for MT Croker's candidate. Out side of the socialists and prohibition ist vots. the total number of ballots counted for mayor in 1897 was 510,531, and CT the figures of registration a similar vote may be locked for this year. If to Gen. Tracy's vote of 101.- 6S3 be added 113.655, which is three fourths of the vote for Seth Low, and 7231 which is oIe-tiird of the vote for Henry George. we gst g tctal of 222, ,5e9 for the republican state ticket. This can be regarded as an improbable estimate and seems Q err. if at all. in favor of the demo- ratio side. If to the vote of 233.G97 for Mayor Van Wyck be added 37,635, representing one- fourth of the vot-s cast for Seth Low, 14.i62, as two-thirds of the votes cast for Henry George; 823. the entire vote
 
 number credited to CruikShank, can- didata of the united democracy we have a total of 2S7, ,7S2 fer ;hc demo- cratic state ticket in Greater New York. This would give Candidate Van Wyck plurality Of 65.213 in the great city south cf Westchester county. line. In giving him this figure he re- ceives the benefit Of 53,7S5 votes which wers .ast against his brother last year, CT essentially agailss the Croker- Mclaughlin democracy. Assuming this to be a reasonable proportion, it is claimed that the republicans up she state ought to be able to wipe out the Tammany plurality in Greater New York.
 And then we come to the upstate vote and the question, can Col. Roose- welt come down to the Westchester line with 75.000 or n,ora majority? The figures of past elections prove that he