The times., 1898-04-25
THE SPANISH AMERICAN WAR.
French Views on Duration and Re-
suit pf Conflict.

On the eve of hostilites between Spain
and the United States it was thought de-
sirable to obtain the views of persons
specially qualified to speak on certain
probabilities likely to arise in the naval
warfare about to begin or the part therein
likely to be taken by the neutral powers
and the consequences Immediately aris-
ing as to the commercial relations be-
tween the United States and certain
great European ports
NJ. Lockroy formerly French minister
of marine, was seen, and this is what he
says: THE conflict about to take place
is calculated to cause us all much con-
sideration and even anxiety. l don't
agree with those who believe or AFFECT to
believe and who state in the newspapers
that the game may be played out in a
few weeks when once hOstilties have be-
gun. Assuredly no man of sense can
contest the overwhelming superiority of
the material resources of the United
States, with its population four times
large as that of Spain; it's enormous
wealth. with taxable resources hitherto
almost untouched, with merchant navy
capable of furnishing the elements of a
powerful war fleet and with State mill
tia which proved during the war of Sc
cession that il could easily be transform
ed into an admirable army.
THE United States has many elements
of success. but one must not lose sight
of the defensive resources of Spain. of
her few vulnerable points, of her legend
airy tenacity. better organized. better
equipped and better trained army and ma
Wy and her special qualifications for a
guerrilla warfare in which she has al
ways been successful on land. and which
she will naturally try to carry on at sea
and which may be Indefinitely prolonged" !"
'.Do you then consider that privateering
can be carried on without the interven-
tion of the neutral powers. or that they
would submit to the inconvenience in
volved in the right of search?"
II believe that the question is extreme
ly complicated, and | consider that some
understanding should be arrived at, but
| don't see how Spain can be prevented
from using her best If not only. means
of defense without acting toward her
with a partiality equivalent almost to
forcible Intervention and to her detri-
ment. Besides, what steps can be taken?
Can one go so far as to consider as q
casus belli. or at least an act emitting
third party to heavy indemnity the fact
of having subjected to search a vessel
hoisting neutral flag? BY virtue of the
convention of 1856 to which neither Spain
nor the United States assented, this is
hardly probable. Moreover, il would be
interesting to see what would become of
the convention itself in the event OF war
| between two European powers In fact,
J England is the only nation whose inter
est il is to maintain the convention for
with her 900 merchant ships, 10000 of
which belong to London, she would run
the risk of starvation whenever they
were confined TO ports by the menace of
privateers belonging to a power. even
one incapable of resisting a British feet
in line of battle. This has already mar
rowly missed happening. At any rate the
effect of the menace could only have been
estimated by the formidable rise in the
rate of marine insurance IN London when
Russia prepared 70 arm her fleet at the
moment when a dispute threatened over
the construction of the Afghanistan Rail-
way. G&2
What do you think is the feeling Of
England in regard to the United States
war?"
Il think that England, who is always
practical and quick to profit by the
misfortuncs of others, will eagerly turn
to account the closing of the markets
against the United States in conse-
quence of the war, but 1t Is none the less
4
affinities of race Will be likely to make
England hold back from the European
| concert. as she clearly manifested her
intention of doing when the question of
common diplomatic action was raised a
| few days ago"
Don't you consider the new tendencies
a danger to general peace?"
'At any rate, they are n matter for
serious consideration. Apart from the
war itself and its varying phases. the
| conflict seems crtain to develop diplo-
matte questions of the highest interest to
| the powers OF the Old World Apart from
the fundamental principles of the treaty
of Paris. such as the protection of the
interests of neutrals the definition of
contraband of war and the maintenance
of an effective blockade. diplomacy will
be confronted with a series of problems.
| the solution of which will demand the
exercise of the greatest care on the part
| of all. ! hope that both in the present
and in the future diplomatists will prove
equal to the task. In the present state
of affairs this is the best hope l can ven
| ture to form
After seeing NJ Lockroy, several high
officials in the French navy were con-
suited. The prevailing opinion is that the
American ships are better armed and
faster than the Spanish ships. and in a
! stand-up fight should have the best of
| II, but they appear to hold high opln-
! ion of the bravery and qualifications of
some of the Spanish sailors. One admi-
raj, a member of the high council of the
marine Francaise told me that he Wit
/ messed the trials of the Cristobal Colom-
| DO at Genoa, and. like all the other Of
| ficcrs present, was struck by the COM
bined skill and boldness with which the
| Spanish captain sent to take over the
vessel from Italy handled her
The crucial point according tn IIrapcb
sailors is that OF coal supply and muni-
| tions, and unless Spain has taken such
| precautions that the loss by blockade of
| one or more of her depots would have no
effect the struggle may shortly become
| hopeless at so great distance from the
| base of operations.
AS to the political consequences of the
! war, an eminent foreign diplomatist said :
! II consider that the campaign which the
| United States have just entered on is n
| particularly serious event in their his
! tory. This campaign, with the facts and
negotiations that preceded it, furnishes
| indications of state of feeling and tend
| encies calculated to cause uneasiness on
| this side of the ocean
AS to the Cuban question proper.
| which would, doubtless, not have been
| raised but for the deplorable policy of
! Spain toward her colonies, and which has
alienated those sympa thies instnctivelv
| awarded to the weakest in an UNEQUAL
contest. I am willing to admit that the
| professions of dlsinterestedness. humani-
tarianism, and freedom wht~n come from
across the Atlantic are more sincere than
| they appear.
What do you think Of the feeling
which appears to be growing in America
! in favor of drawing closer the various
elements of the Anglo-SaXon rjice?'
II think" he replied, with smile.
g. ..-,..
a moment draw the two. perhaps, closer.
but that they are not sufficient to deprive