New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1898-03-20
financial.
The Financial World.

Monday when the market opened with grea.
scare Of the short interest which was shown to
have become unwieldy by the clamorous demand
for stocks In the loan crowd. 1t was the ur-
gency and bulk Of this demand which Indicated
that rally Of some proportions could not be far
off. The market had been oyersold. readjust.
ment was effected by the rapid rise on Monday
and further advance Tuesday. After this
prices sagged again, with the market falling into
dullness, but Friday afternoon II seemed to
have been sold 10 stands,ill. Bear operators
apparently found that no one YVES selling stocks
but themselves. Buying to cover caused an ad.
vance quick that ii started all sorts OF rumors
about new developments in the political situa-
ton. There was nothing 10 them, but the mar.
ket did not go back yesterday when 1t was
shown that the rumors were untrue. From this
X may be inferred that, on the situation as row
known, liquidation is about oyer. Something
new must be waited for to start It afresh. How
much the liquidation has been may be seen from
the bank statements that of yesterday showing
another ten million reduction in the loans. maxi
Ing thirty five millions IN three weeks.
TIE surplus reserve now reaches S2S00O0O0
It will Increase Money Is drug. II will con.
tinue so until the political atmosphere clears. Or
the Government comes In borrower q one or
two hundred millions. The latter. Of course
would be for war purposes. The expectation
that the contingency may arise which would
force this borrowing Is working for ease In
money because Il checks the expansion @.
business. The restrictive effect OF uncertainty
is apparent SO far II has not reached retail
trade. and bank clearings Increase: bu, the
weekly shrinkage In the bank loans is the Ger.
tain sign Of what is coming. The railroads will
feel It first In their west-bound traffic There Ia
no escape from this. To what extent they VIII
suffer depends absolutely on how long the cause
continues that is. the continuance Of the public
uncertainty as to whether the Issue is to be
any great matter Two months would be serious.
Another month Of II shall have 10 stand
anyhow. Judging from all proba bties This
period will cover the presentation Of the Maine
report. and official expression Of Spanish
views on II; but this is only one factor in the
complex problem. and the least perplexng. Be-
hind II lies the question of the future Of Cuba
The two cannot be separated now, for public
opinion is incon testibly fixed 10 have a settle.
ment once for all OF this whole Cuban question
he the consequences what they may. II is safe
to say that in Wall Street a. least opinion Is
practically unanimous that way. There has
been trouble enough already. To leave things in
such way that the sort Of disquirt BUSH
HeSS ulStuTDdnCe anu puDliC agitation may De
expected TO spring up at frequent intervals in
the future. opens a prospect more bearish.
speaking speculatvely. than a settlement by
force OF arms. Therefore the real difficulty be-
fore the country. and By consequence the stock
market, is the determination OF the question who
shall rule In Cuba, and not the responsibility
for the Maine disaster.
Now II may happen that within the next four
70 five weeks things will take such a shape that
we shall know beyond all question what the
determination is TO be. and the method Of IT, But
1t would not be very safe 10 bet on that We
may know all about the Maine but not the other
and larger question. That will take longer For
the next few weeks. therefore. as rejecting this
state OF affairs. may look for uncertain
market. much as II has been through the past
week: subject to quick and nervous movements.
between spells of dizziness. responding to the
varying reports from Washington II ought 10
be fine trading market. And whenever there
is a slump like that OF Saturday week-and, such
may be looked for during this tension Of 'un-
certainty-it is a pretty sure thing to buy them.
1t may be added here that careful inquiry
among people who may properly be called lead
ers in banking and speculative circles, fails 70
discover that these gentlemen are anything but
wholly uncertain as 10 the final outcome. The
better and broader their sources az information
from the seat Of government. the more perplexed
they show themselves 10 be- They all express
hopes for peace. but the expression OF these
hopes has grown less confident week by week
At this time. the future is blind TO them. The
significant remark OF one gentleman exception
ally well informed was "the President is sim
cerey DESTROYS to maintain peace. but they are
making 1t increasingly difficult for him." There
is doubt about who they meant. 1t is tho
growing war party in Congress.
Meanwhile, however. it is Just we'll not to
lose sight entirely OF domestic conditions. FOR
they are the most favorable possible for q bull
market Even with all the rate cutting the
earnings OF the roads continue to increase in an
astonishing degree, and foreign trade Is
large and profitable The present
and prospective In money has already been
referred to: and though 1t Is not possible 10 bull
a market simply on cheap money. yet cheap
money is a strong sustaining force. since IT
makes II easier TO carry stocks. Reports from
the Western winter wheat sections are extreme
ly faYorable-"the finest wheat on EARTH" was
the report from one section. The Middle States
report fair. but not so brilliant prospects. As
the foreign demand keeps up, even Mr.. Letter
may come out safe on his wheat speculation;
though 1t must be confessed he has a pretty big
on hand. The Northwestern rate war
does not reach beyond the passenger traffic ap
parently, which is much less serious than II II
involved the freight departments. II is sense
less sort OF fight. senseess TO rouse the sus-
plcion that stock speculation has not a little TO
DO with II. The Northern Pacific stocks have
been wonderfully strong in the face OF IT, con-
sldering the weakness of the general market
Luckily for the holders of oregon Improvement
the does not hart. but rather
helps that company. 1t is less expensive TO get
TO the points where the company takes business.
Incidentally X may be noted the powers that
be In The O. L comranY haNe CALLED he last as.