Abilene weekly reflector. [volume] (Abilene, Kan.) 1888-1935, 1898-10-13
HIGH WHAT UILIxlLY.
9. Wood Davis, the Kansas Statisti-
clan, Writes Of the Outlook.

clan, Writes Of the Outlook.
In response to an inquiry from the
editor Of the REFLECTOR as to the
probable outlook for wheat prices in
the immediate future-say six or
eight months-C. Wood Davis, the
well known statistician, whose writ.
ings are widely published and quoted,
replied as follows. His conclusions
will be read with much interest:
PEoroNE, Kas., Oct. 5.-Replying
to yours OF the lst instant would say
that | find it impossible to come to
any satisfactory conclusion as to the
course Of prices for wheat in the i'm
mediate future-because interested
parties will, by their persistent lying,
obscure the real situation, and thus
create abnormal conditions. In this
country we have class Of men, call.
ed crop experts, whose opinions are
on tap, and their character depends
upon the desires Of the purchaser;
and these are usually bears who de-
sire to buy in their contracts at a
profit. In Europe, while the class
referred to exists and has but little
less influence on prices, and by the
practice Of the same arts, there is an
ever present desire among the gov
erning and industrial forces to de-
press prices both for commercial and
political purposes. Cheap bread
gives a reasonable assurance Of quiet
among the aboring masses, and this
means, in a certain sense, political
quiet, while cheap food is the desire
always of the European manufact-
urer. Therefore, all the power Of
western Europe is exerted in favor of
the low prices for farm products out
side Of the agrarian party in Germany
and certain unintluential element
in France. One result is that the
outturn Of the years harvest is exag-
gerated as Tong as possible, and the
preliminary reports Of harvests are
nearly always excessive. Last year,
for instance the Liverpool Corn Trade
News, and other trade journals as
we'll, estimated, about Sept. LIST, that
the world crop Of 1897 was but l6
million bushels below that Of 1896,
and not until about the first OF De.
cember did 1t correct this apparent
Justification, although was able to
show as early as Sept. LIST that the
1897 crop was quite $50, 900, 900 bush
els below the world crop of lS96-and
taken to task for such an estimate by
the Kansas City Star, Chicago Tri.
bune, and other papers.
This year | have, because ofillness,
been able to give less attention to the
matter than desired; but my opinion
is that prices are, because of the per-
sistent exaggeratons Of interested
parties-grain gamblers both in
America and Europe, and buyers Of
grain in Europe-little likely to ad-
vance materially until a large part OF
the wheat has left the hands Of the |
growers, but actual conditions must
assert themselves about April or May |
md prices then advance materially.
II the crop of Russia is no better than
now indicated, the years harvest
world barvest-is likely to prove
argely deficient, with no considerable
stores Of old grain anywhere in the
world. In fact, even the European
,rade journals, that always try to
minimize demand and exaggerate the
AVAILABLE supply, agree in stating the
from former world har-
vests as the smallest ever known. In
view Of these facts and the related
me that the wheat Of 1898 went into |
consumption from two to four weeks
earlier than usual, and thus must
meet nearly IS months requirements,
here is little probability Of prices re-
naming low until another harvest
unless, as the Mark Lane Express
the Russian outturn is so
million bushels greater than in 1897,
md the growing world crop promises
unusually well when the spring
growth Of 1899 begins.
Yours very truly,
n Wnop DAvte