The Laurens advertiser. (Laurens, S.C.) 1885-1973, 1898-01-04

frCm this source will likely be 263 900
to 300 900 bales less than last season.
70 partly make up for the diminished
receipts of India cotton in Europe the
Egyptian crop will probably be about
$4,000 bales larger than last season
and Mr.. Ellison thinks that l O,OOO
more than last season may be received
in Europe from Brazil, Smyrna, etc.
After allowing for the increased re-
celpts from Egypt, ETC., as above stated,
about 200 900 bales of American cot
TN Will be required to make up for the
shortage in the shipments from India
TO Europe.
Based upon these views of probable
supply and consumption, 1 think the
spinners of the world will require for
actual consumption du ing the season
in round numbers, about 1926, 900
bales OF American cotton, in order t.
the stocks OF cotton (of all kinds III
the markets and mills may be no less
at the close OF the season than ut its
commencement. If less cotton is sent
from India to Japan and China than |
have indicated it will be because on
account OF It's superiority and cheap
ness, the Japanese spinlers increase
their purchases of American cotton.
This would not affect the result of my
estimates Of the worlds requirements
Vf American cotton, as it would SIMPLY
mean larger shipments TO Japan and
probably somewhat smaller supplies TO
Europe.
Should the American and foreign
spindles buy during the season no more
cotton than required for consumption
III the season, there would be left from
a crop of 10, 300, 900 bales a surplus of
G75 900 bales and The stocks IN Ameri-
can II foreign markets would be that
much lalger at the end of the season
than at its beginning. The visible
supply would then be about 1,735 900
bales, being with the exception Of this
year and 1896 the smallest visible sup
ply at the corresponding date since
1891 and only 81 900 bales more than
that year. The present consumption
Of the mills of Europe and America is
about 2O9 900 bales of cotton per week,
so that the surplus would be Il matter
of a little over three weeks supply.
SO small a prospective increase in
stocks should certainly be no reason for
the depression in prices at this time.
MldGling upland cotton is now 5 7 s
cents per pound in New York, being
within 5-lGth of n cent of the lowest
price reached in the depression in the
season of lS94-95, when prices we're
lower than at any time siucc 1913.
There can be no question hut tina,
the amount which the farmer would
realize from the basis of this price
would be considerably below the aver
age cost OF production. 1t is true that
commodities are often sold below the
actual cost of production, but it is
equally true that this condition of af-
fairs continues for any length of
time, inasmuch as it is always due to a
, supply in excess of demand and as peo-
pie cannot go on producing cOmmodi.
ties to be sold at a loss, the supply Is
quickly reduced and prices advanced tc
a proper level. An examination of The
prices of cotton for a series of wears
will show that great deprcssions arc
invarit IDLY followed hy sharp reactions
, A valued friend who has been prom
ment in the cotton trade for man,
years has stated IN a recent circula,
, letter that middling cotton has al som,
, time during each year since 1925 solt
IN New York us high as s cents. Tn,
, statement is true ana it is a significan
! TACT to be well considered by spccula
, tnrs before selling contracts for the de
livery OF cotton several months hcnc,
at the prices now ruling for Futures
, Cotton is undoubtedly very much to,
low. An article so indispensable {,
| the comfort of the human race shoul,
DlIVoYl coll for o,,,,b l.-
OF production to give the producer
, fair remuneration for his toll. Cottol
: goods are very low and greatly depres4
cd but the depression is largely due t
. the extreme and continued dcpressio,
i'll cotton. An advance IN the ray
material would al once put up til
, price and quicken the demand Tor tn
manufactured product. The uncertain
= ty in regard to the situation at Fal
River has been ended by the dccisio,
+ TO reduce the wages of operatives an,
I the salaries of officials about II pc
cent. 1t ls not probable any strik
-. Will result and the reduction i'm ex
penses will put the mills in better shan,
, for active work.
: Exports OF cotton to Europe and cs
pecially to the Continent have beer
f verp liberal recently and the European
spinncrs will get more than their shar,
OF our cheap cotton unless our spinner
buy more freely. There has beer
really no we'll sustained and aggressive
speculative buying since September Is
and the buying ny the spinncrs has no
lIeen sufficiently active to counterac
the depressing effect OF the weight O
heavy receipts of cotton to be sold.
The inevitable reaction from tn.
present low prices will surely come
and probably from a general reduction
In he large estimates of the crop whcr
TIE movement falls off materially with,
in a few weeks as it probably will, OF
from indications of a large reduction
In the acreage of the new crop. As
cotton is an Improbable crop at any
thing like present prices, a considerable
reduction in the acreage seems newt.
able. a large majority of the cotton.
growers have agreed to devote less
land to the cultivation of cotton next
spring. They are not able to
cultivate unremunerative crops. They
could not do it if they would and thcy
would not d" 1T if they could, for
though the Southern man has as keen
a ems of humor as his Northern
brethren, for fondness for work purely
for the fun of il cannot be deemed a
Southern characteristic. don't think