Arizona republican., 1898-01-13
A FEELING OF CONFIDENCE
The Extraordinary Increase of
 Railroad Traffic
In Business Circles the Tone is Strong and the Belief In the Immediate Future Well Founded. Prices Steadily Advar cling.

opening of the year is attended with buoyancy in the stock market, owing to the reinvestment of interest and dividends then distributed to their em- ployment in speculative purchases. This year, the amount of those dis bursements in January is estimated to be SIS, 9,200,000, which is the highest sum ever reached, except in 1893, when the total was about 1000, 900 higher. Yet the usual rise in prices has not been prompt in appearing; and, dur ing the first half of the week, the mar ket was dull and prices somewhat unsettled. This lack of response o the general expectation seems to have arisen from the fact that the buying during the last half of December was largely in anticipation of the expect ed January rise and that consequent ly there has been some timid selling because this buying was delayed An other expla nation may be found in the fact that the investment demand has so far run almost entirely upon bonds, with a consequent large advance in their market value. It is to be kept in mind, however, that the effect of these disbursements has not yet been fully felt; as the payments are usually distributed over the whole month, and the rise in the prices of bonds is likely, judging from common experi- ence, to promote subsequent advance in stocks in order to equalize values between the two. The condition of the bank reserves has also had some influence in producing the temporarily depressed tone of the stock market.
 The surplus, on Friday last, was only $15.S0O.00O, which is the lowest figure since 1893, the sum of the first week of 1897 having been 332 mill lions; of 1896, 19.S millions; of 1895, 35.8 millions; of 1894, S3.8 millions; and of 1893, 8.9 millions.
 This comparatively low condition Of the reserves, for this season of the year, is largely due to the settlements connected with the Union Pacific debt, and may be expected to gradually dis appear within 8 comparatively short period. The last payment of the com mittee on these settlements, amounting in round figures to $8,0O0, ,0OO, was made on Tuesday last, and the amour. of government money held by the New York banks on this account is estima.- ed to be from $16,. 1000, GOO to SIS, ,OOO,- 900, which involves a reduction in the surplus reserves to the extent of 25 per cent of that item. There are also some other important unusual ele- ments in the banking situation which tend to stiffen the money market. It is estimated that the amount of for eign exchange held back for temporary I investment now reaches about $20,- | 000,000. The amount of foreign bal ances due New York on open accounts, but allowed to rest in London and Der | lin, is supposed by those best situated to know to be not less than 0,OOO,- 1 0OO; and besides this the bankers and banks of this city are under advances to Europe, against bond collaterals, to sum probably not less than $10,- 0OOO0O. Putting together these three items, they show that New York is 1 now virtually lending some $40 O,O0O, ,O0O
 to European money centers, which,
 but for these deferments of settle ments, would have brought us an equal amount of gold. So long as these &C., counts remain outstanding, it is not to be expected that we shall soon wit ness any notable ease in the local
 money market. The position of the loan market is, however, a strong and healthy one; for these advances to | foreign countries represent a resource
 which can be transferred for home
 use at the convenience of our local l demand. For the time being, this sit uation has tendency to hold in check
 any large operations in speculative
 undertakings.
 Nevertheless, during the last two
 days of the week, there was a distinct
 improvement in speculative transac-
 tions. Some of the lately absent larg-
 CT operators became active buyers
 and the increased orders to the com
 mission houses showed that outsiders
 were beginning to employ their in
 terest and dividend receipts in pur-
 chases off higher prices How fal
 these operations may run, it remains
 to be seen. It is certain, however
 that the general situation is virtually
 in every way favorable to a hlghel l; range of values for stocks.
 The railroads keep up their iats