New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1898-08-24
WHEAT.
THE RECORDS AND THE CONSUMPTION
OF'THE PAST AND THE PROSPECT.

reviewed II was stated that there every
prospect of an enormous foreign demand which.
in spite of a yield probably as large as the
largest unofficial estimate and about one hum
dred million bushels larger than the Govern
ment then estimated. would be likely TO cause
unusually high prices during most of the year.
even though exports of surplus corn should re-
lieve part of the need abroad. This year there Is
reason to look for a materially diminished for
eign demand. while the American yield promises
to be much the greatest known. European
crops known to be quite good The latest
dispatches indicate that the Russian yield will
be about 81. 10000 bushels larger than that Of
last year. while in place of great shortage in
other countries there is prospect of fair average
yield a; least in Austro-Hungary. France and
Great Britain. Distant countries also in better
position to spare something for European wants
Though it is by no means certain that this
country will have enough corn to help largely
toward the foreign supply. yet the wheat crop
according to the estimates which have been
found most nearly correct In recent years. Will
be more than enough to meet even such an
extraordinary demand that Of last year, and
to fully replensh stocks here and abroad.
The overlapping necessities OF other countries
have drawn heavily upon the American supply
since the crop year began Exports In
July. -four included. were 1l.41S951 bushels. and
about l2OO0000 bushels have gone out already
In August. reducing the visible supply to the
lowest point ever known since that term came
TO include stocks at the points now covered by
the Produce Exchange report. At the end OF
June IL was II 22J 900 bushels. the lowest point
since July ]. 1891. when II 12.5S}6 COL
though 1t subsequently reduced to 1862
2S7 July IL This the lowest point since
July. 1SS2. when 10 1O7 400 bushels
ported and this reduced July Is to
S,947 SEQ In 1850 the stocks of 12.2G4, 800
bushels. in 1878 of only 1912 .432. and in 1877
only 1924 195 bushels, did not include Mime
apolis which now reports nearly half the whole;
did II include lake. river canal and rail
stocks on the basis now ruling. This year the
stock has declined from ,0OC on June %
to only jSjOOO0 last Saturday. much the lowest
since records the present basis have been
kept. So great foreign deficiency. tapping
the end of our crop year. goes far TO Justify
the calculations Of those who paid very high
prices last May. though the certainty OF @ great
crop this year has rendered their Judgment only
a source Of loss TO them.
In every calculation for the future there
comes up the theory Of diminished or fuctuating
consumption. exploited vigorously by the last
statistician OF the Department: in order to de-
fend its false reports of yield. This sur
fciently disposed Of year ago by the fact that
the farmers do not stop eating wheat when IL
is cheapest. as II In the years 1896, and
when they have to carry over much OF 1t. nor
do other people stop eating -four and bread
when they are cheapest so that patent -four
sold here IN October. 1894 at a monthly aver
age Of 50 II per barrel. Then the -four cost the
price Of five bushels wheat at the monthly aver
age OF 1928 at New-York. and now costs the
price OF So bushels wheat: but IN May. with
a monthly average OF 81 53i4 for wheat. and
SC 20 for patent -four. the flour brought only the
price OF Az bushels Of wheat. The consumer did
not feel the full effect OF great rise and
great fall does not induce less consumption. nor
materially greater.
Further evidence Of conclusive character Is
furnished by milling reports OF the four great
four-producing cities Of the West. Minneapolis.
Superior Duluth. Milwaukee and St Louis pro-
duced In the last crop year. with wheat aver
aging at New-York 81 on per bushel. 1864
149 barrels of flour, against 90. 40 258 during the
previous crop year, when wheat averaged only
1859 cents here. This Insignificant difference
Of only 100000 barrels contrast with the rise Of
production in the same cities from II. 1876. 800
bushels In the calendar year 1891. gaining every
year during the period when consumption was
said TO be diminished TO 20 265 bushels in
the calendar year 1897. Nor this expansion
Of output due 10 greater export demand. for the
exports OF -four were 692 barrels In the
calendar year 1891. and 13,596,259 in the calen-
dar year 1897. though somewhat larger. 3D.
$50. 1885, in the previous year. The milling in
crease was mainly due. It is evident. to an in
crease In the home demand during the very
years when hard times were said TO have caused
decrease, and the gain exclusive Of exports Is
greater than the gain officially shown In popula-
ton
For years prior to 1891 the last point Of
greatest exhaustion Of stock. when the quantity
in the country is most nearly known. the con-
sumption had been not far from 2-3 bushels
per capita, and that average made the
basis OF all official calculations. At that aver
age. with mean population according to Treas
ury estimates, the quantity required for con-
sumption as food from July. 1891. to July. 1893.
was 9 254 III 900 bushels. and the net exports
OF wheat and -four officially reported were 1913
425121 bushels. The quantity used for seed
has been absurdly stated at 100000 bushels.
because II was so officially estimated when the
Government report as all know. put the
wheat acreage several millions too low. At that
figure after 1894 the quantity used would be
3S1 100000 bushels in these seven years but
should be reckoned a. least 412.OOO,OOO bush
els, with the larger acreage now officially ad-
mtted Thus an actua! distribution appears OF
$3.50 1866 121 bushels in the seven years. whereas
the crops according to Government reports,
were but 3,4O9. O65,G sos bushels. or 10000
bushels less. Allowance for difference In visible
stocks, and half much more for invisible
stocks July 1. as the figures already given have
shown makes no difference worth mentioning.
In the crop years 1S92-'03. when wheat
brought on farms west OF the Mississippi an
average Of 80 to 16 cents and at New-York
over 81 per bushel for both years. nobody dis