The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1898-01-02
Financial Forecast

6iscuss tho present mhteriai postum oh ING
people Of tho United States no seems 70 us 70
~ doundered in remarkable misconceptions.
~ ,ho.e NJ un who spend our lives in business
sons,dcrations IL seems that tho agricultural
"a mechanic classes Of tho people OF the United
a,o,es have never before enjoyed 90 much
v.s,tb of this worlds goods. That great period
- nrosperity which camo to this country dur
inc the years referred to by the honored Bishop.
and which ls regarded by him as the maxi
mum OF American material achievement,
vas created In very largo degree by
the expenditure OF enormous amounts or
roonev in the construction OF railroads,
vhIob money was borrowed from Europe on
mortgages on our railway properties, and q con.
adorable portion OF that money which we were
narrowing from foreign countries We were at
the same time paying back to them for steel
rails at two or three times the present value.
We have como up to the existing remarkable
level Of Industrial recovery during the time
when We have been paying back to Europe
enormous amounts Of that money we borrowed
during the period which the Bishop refers to,
and we are now selling steel rails to foreign
countries instead of buying from them. Tho
year 1898 comes to the people OF this country
when they have more money OF their own than
they ever had before. They have obtained this
money from other countries through develop
ments which were In every way natural Dur
ing tho recent protracted depression. which
rested most heavily upon our manufacturers,
they learned methods Of economic fabrication.
and have boen able to force their creations into
all foreign markets. They have boon able to do
this because this vast territory OF the United
States is the natural workshop Of the globe.
where coal, iron, and lumber are In more re-
markable juxtaposition than any else.
with this advantage in cost Of materials. and
because of the ingenuity Of our inventors and
the skill of American workmen, our manufactur-
es are able to create their products at relative
advantage Of competing countries. and yet sus-
tain the wages they pay to our mechanics.
There lie no similar advantage in favor Of the
mechanics Of any other country. 1t has come
about, therefore, during this long manufacture
ers' depression that we have increased In ro-
markable degree our sale of manufactured prod
ucts, and at tho Same time have paid such
wages that men who work In manufactures,
and. in fact, the men who work for railway
companics, and salaried men generally, have re-
eeived relatively high income. and have lived
ct relatively low cost. During tho recent do
preston there was O larger difference be-
tween the income of labor and tho cost
OF corn than ever was known before
IN any country In any ago. Tho result
q that such mon gained enormously In money
accumulation. filling our savings banks, build.
ing and loan associations, and other financial
institutions to q degree beyond all records.
During the Same period tho farmers have been
gaining in wealth. For several years abundant
corn has given them the fundamental basis of
farm wealth. enabling them to support their
families and assistants at low cost and I'LL their
farms with fattening pigs and beef. Re-
Gently the sale of o largo new crop of wheat
at high prices has given them ready cash.
DO that to-day tho farmers Of tho great
West have larger relative wealth than they
ever had before. Under these natural de-
v~elopments, therefore,, the United States has in
creased its relative grasp upon tho wealth Of tie
world. pulling money into our midst from other
countries BY export of gold, commodities. and
manufactured articles which we have produced
and sold. Among thinking men 1t 10 not neces-
sary to discuss the probabilities of the %continu-
anco Of Q period Of prosperity which comes to
the country at o time whom tho agricultural
and mechanic classes arc possessed OF such
enormous buying power. Business prosperity
develops from such conditions under natural
laws as inevitably a. day follows night.
This new money 10 now doing It's work In
the direction Of the renewed growth OF the
country. Just 40 the reorganization OF many Of
our railway companies has enabled them to ar
range to pay four per cont interest upon their
bonded indebtedness instead of six or sevon. SO
this accumulation of money 10 enabling our SOL
vent railway systems to arrange with their cred
itors to pay interest at rate OF three and ono
half or four per cent. instead OF six or seven.
This means that the owners Of the stock Of The
American railroads are now to have their re-
ward. Heretofore it has boon for tho holder Of
railway shares to undergo constant disappoint-
ment, but tho time has now come when those
who use mind with money should select railway
shares instead Of railway bonds. During the
last few years, when the public mind has
boon often distracted by political sense
lions. the owners Of money in tho United States
have held 1t with the grasp of anxiety and dis
trust. They have kept it locked. as 1t were, in
the vaults. But already the indications are
everywhere apparent of q return current of
money from vaults into ventures. Thus far this
Heinvestment has gone mainly into the channels
Of legitimate business or into securities gen.
orally approved by the public. But the aggres-
oive and ambitious elements Of human nature
will come to tho front again. Already
this abundant money 10 building . fire.
as 1t were, under baking conservatism.
and O spirit of venture Is slowly waking
up and becoming restless. 1t may spend the
remnant of this winter In dreaming Of the
golden Yukon. but it will not limit itself to the
confines OF the frozen North. In the near future
money will be In distinct outward current from
vaults into infinite enterprises. Aggressive In.
vestment will take possession Of conservative
circles, and speculation in full tide will sweep
reluctance and prejudice away from their moor
ings with the coming of the Spring. Wall
Street will anticipate this, and when money
and courage combined como into the security
market. 1t will be realized that we have not
been making new securities for years. and that
the supply will not be sufficient to absorb o
1.-THE of the money In sight.
A gigantic change has come. The financial
world has begun to swing again in favorable
direction. A new financial cycle has boon set In
motion. An extensive period Of business pros
perity has begun its work. Many extraordinary
new values will now DO brought into Wow.
Probably tho Panhandle Railroad will provo to
DO tho most remarkable illustration of this
revelation OF new values. This road 10 the
WestSouth-W Vest division OF the Pennsylvania
system. As far as traffic from St Louis and the
great West, or Cincinnati, Louisville. and tho