Evening star., 1898-11-04
CROKER AN ORACLE.
His Predictions Have Great Weight
With Party Leaders.
UNDERMINE REPUBLICAN FAITH
They Also Give Strength to Shaky
Democratic Confidence.
HIS CLAIMS LYZED
Special From a Staff Correspondent.


with great vigor on both Sides but
there is not that response by the people
which would indicate a grand swell of
popular feeling. The only things that stand
out prominently in the campaign are Roose-
velt's personality and Croker's skill and
audacity. The republicans seem to mis-
trust their grounds. because Croker says
Van Wyck will win. number of men
who are to a greater or less degrees re-
sponsible for the republican campaign have
pointed out the features of strength in
Roosevelt's canvass: have declared that his
presence everywhere arouses the greatest
enthusiasm; that there is no disaffectfon in
the republican ranks; that Roosevelt will
get considerable proportion Of the Ger
man vote and practically all of the inde-
pendent vote; and then tone Of doubt,
reservation or anxiety has come into their
voices and they have said: But Croker
seems to be perfectly confident Of Van
Wyck's election 1t seems that this one
fact. that Croker appears confident, casts a
doubt upon their own information and rea-
soning.
1 have asked democrats why they seemed
so confident, what they based their con-
fidence on. In reply they have given some
iEconsequential reasons why Roosevelt
must be defeated" and have wound UP,
with the air Of one who would extend a
case,
the poser:
Croker says there isn't doubt about it,
Belief in Croker's Judgment.
I have asked several persons why, in tho
absence of any tangible evidence to sup
pert it. Croker's judgment makes such an
impression. The answer is that he knows
more about conditions influencing a cam
paign in New York than does any other
man; that in '96 he predicted the result in
all sections of the state almost exactly
and that when the other brother Van
Wyck was elected mayor of New York he
had it all figured out accurately.
What is the basis of Crokers confidence
now is not apparent on the surface The
basis of general democratic confidence is
Croker and the source of republican ap-
prehenS1on seems also to be Croker. That
personality has never before so obviously
entered into campaign as it now does
Accepting Croker, therefore, as the au-
thor OF democratic hopes and republican
fears. it may be assumed, in spite oe the
fact that democratic talk to the contrary,
that Roosevelt is going to have a very
heavy vote up in the state. Without ac-
knowledging it openly, Croker is preparing
to meet a heavy republican vote a. the
Harlem. His private claim is that Van
Wyck will be elected by about 25 600 To
n axe up this majority (according to his
private figures) he is to have majority of
10000 in New York city and 5000 in
>,
ii he fails in it his claim fails. The calcu-
lation. it will be seen, comedies Roosevelt
majority Of $4,000 up in the state. This
IS significant in face of the claim that
Roosevelt is going to be cut in Buffalo,
Syracuse. Rochester. Troy and Albany. and
that the democrats will have 5000 majority
In Erie county. A calculation that requires
majority Of 10000 in New York cannot
be based on any expectation by Croker
that Roosevelt is going to lose many votes
in these cities up the state
Croker is Blumng.
There can be little doubt that Croker is
doing some stiff bluffing, but his display of
confidence is not all a bluff. Some very
influential republicans are socially intimate
with Croker, and all such are impressed
with the idea that Roosevelt is in great
danger. There is very general belief that
the way the betting has been switched
around SO as to have the odds against
Roosevelt has been simply the result of
democratic manipulation, and that the
money has been invested for its effect
This is obvious enorgh as to all the adver-
tised bets: but a well-known republican
banker. a man who had much to do with
having the present gold standard" plank
adopted at st. Louis, told me today that
he knew personally of many thousand dol
iars-hundreds of thousands. he said-be-
ing bet on Van Wyck at the rate Of ten
against seven or ten against eight, by men
who never bet for any motive except to
win money. He said 1t might be that these
bets were based on confidence in Crokers
judgment.
Trying to Keep Down Odds.
The republicans are prompt with their
money in an effort to keep down the odds
against Roosevelt, but 1t is evident that
this betting disturbs them.
Another thing that disturbs them is
suspicion Of Lou Payn and his followers.
Payn, with Gov. Black. was thrown down
by the state convention. Black has come
out and made a strong speech for Roose-
velt, but up to this time the republicans
are not at all assured that Payn will not
secretly knife the ticket They are also
much in doubt about Erie county, which
they say privately may be ali right or may
give very large democratic majority.
The republicans claim that the demo-
Gratis are in bad shape in Brooklyn and
that Kings county will either go republi-
can or else give the democrats but a very
small majority, instead Of the IL, 600 Croker
claims.
Some of the responsible democrats tell
me frankly that the obtrusion of Croker's
personality into the campaign is the most
dangerous thing they have to contend with
They say this under their breath, and
some of them merely point to the portrait
of Croker. which no democratic assembling
place can exist without, and shake their
heads woefully.
influence of Bar Association.
1t is said that the DAILY issue and the
opposition Of the Bar Association is not
going to hurt much in New York city.
Croker has with him another Bar" Asso-
citation which counts for more. But, look
ing at the thing from distance the peo-
pie up state are affected by the demand
coming from people whose names they
respect for q pure judiciary. The republi-
cans take more courage from this than
anything else. Starting when the nomina-
tons were made with seeming prospect
Of certain victory, which democrats hardly
dared to dispute lest they should appear
the republicans reached a point
when all the courage had leaked out of
them. Then the pure judiciary issue was
raised and 1t has given them both courage
and confidence In a measure. the effect
of this issue has worn out in New York
city, but it is taking hold up in the state
1t is said. too, that Croker's prominence
in the campaign is hurting democrats in
Brooklyn.
Democrats dispute this, but found one
active democratic worker who keeps his
eyes open who told me today that he was
very anxious about Brooklyn
In spite Of the fact that there is harmony
between Mclaughlin and Croker and that