The age-herald., 1898-11-02
THE CAMPAIGN
 IN NEW YORK
BY WALTER l.. HAWLEY

tions are sent out this week by the cam paign managers in this state, no man knows how the election is going on Tues day next. It is doubtful if there WIS ever another political contest in New York that was so uncertain a week before the elec- ton. Many experienced politicians say that the present situation is even more doubtful than the election of 1884, when the Burchard speech aurned the tide in favor of Cleveland and made him presi- dent.
 The uncertainty of the present contest is due to several causes, but the chief one is the growth in this city of what is known as the independent vote. This is the vote of the who take no active part in politics and recognize no party ties as binding, but vote according to whm or conviction. Many men who belong to this class doubtless change their votes occa- sionally just to convince themselves that they are independent.
 The secret ballot and the safeguards placed around 1t by the complicated elec- ton laws has undoubtedly fostered the growth of the independent vote in this state. The spirit of independence in poli-
  born voters in this city since they have found that they can vote in secret with out losing any political advantage.
 It is not many years since Tammany leader in a number of assembly districts in New York county could, a week before an election, tell within forty or fifty votes of how the election would go in his dis trict. They cannot do that now, and if they make an estimate that is within 300 of the actual result they feel that they have done well. Five years ago one as- sembly district boiled 200O more votes than there were registered voters in the dis- trict. That is now impossible, because or the provisions of the present election law.
 t
 In 1896 it was known two months in ad- vance of the election how every so-called independent voter would cast his ballot, because in that contest they came out Tn the open and let their intentions be known This year. for some reason or other no one has explained, thousands of voters in this city have not indicated, even to their friends, how they are going to vote. This feature of the situation makes the esti- mates of campaign managers largely matter of guess work. The political lead CTS know that practically every democrat is going to vote for Van Wyck and every republican for Roosevelt, but neither side can place beyond conjecture the great unknown quantity. the independent vote.
 This fuctuatng vote has grown to such proportions in recent years that New York can no longer be classed as democratic, republican or doubtful-it is the great un-
 
 state that can give democratic plurality of 192,OOO Cleveland in 1SS2) and republi- can plurality of 26SoOO (McKinley in 1S96) is clearly subject to sudden and violent change in politics. Precedents and sup posed normal conditions are really worth very little in making estimtes of the prob able result of a New York election.
 Politicians everywhere may learn now one valuable lesson from the conditions in this state; that is, the result of the election this year may not be worth copper as an indication of how the state will go i'll 1900. If there should be a landslide for Roosevelt next Tuesday it would not prove that Bryan and free silver could not sweep the state two years later. On the other hand, if the democrats carry the state by a record breaking majority, it may swing back just as far on the other side in two years.
 The politicians cannot reach, much less control, the independent voters in this state. New York has been the deciding factor In national politics off and on for more than 100 years, and independent voters in this state have several times de- feated candidates for president who felt absoutly certain of victory. The electoral votes of this state made John Adams pres ident in 1796, and caused the tie vote be- tween Jefferson and Burr in the electoral college.
 In 1S44 independent voters in this state defeated Henry Clay, the whig candidate, for president They were not pleased with the policy of their party and candidate on the question of Texas annexation and voted for J. G. Birney, the free soil can- didate. Those 5,000 votes gave the state to Polk, and the electoral votes of New York made him president.
 Four years later independent democrats and followers of Martin Van Buren boiled enough votes to defeat Cass, the democrat ic candidate for president, and elect Zach ry Taylor Those independents were called "Barnburners." They bolted the nomina- ton of Lewis Cass by the democrats, and voted for Martin Van Buren, ,.Sv was the candidate of the free soieTs tE 1t year.
 
 the whigs to carry the staee, and the New York electoral votes made enough to elect Taylor.
 The Barnburners of 1884 were called mug wumps, but they boiled enough votes to beat Blaine in New York and made Grover Cleveland president. Four years later Harrison carried the state, but David B. Hill was elected governor. In 1892, in the old city of New York, the Tammany can didate for mayor received 176,000 votes, the republican candidate 1000. Two years later Strong, republican, for mayor re- ceived 154,OOO votes to 10S,0O0 for Hugh J. Grant, the most popular man in Tammany hall. These instances are enough to prove that there is nothing certain in New York politics until the votes are counted.
 The party managers of the present cam paign,,, when they are not awake these paign, when they are not awake these moving and slightly-shifting object-the independent vote.
 THE RHYMING MINISTER'S
 From the Lewiston (Me.) Journal.
 Old Dr. Strong of Hartford had an in.