The Laurens advertiser. (Laurens, S.C.) 1885-1973, 1898-01-04
THE OUTLOOK FOR COTTON.
PROBABLE EXTENT OF TIE CROP AND
TUE PROSPECTS OF SUPPLY AND DE
MAND.

MAND.
Since October LIST the weather has |
been extremely favorable for the ma
turing and picking of the cotton crop.
The long delay of killing frosts enabled
Il full crop to he made in the sections
OF the Mississippi valley where plant
ing was so greatly retarded by the
ovetflows in the spring and a fair stop
crop" to be secured in many sections
where in October little or no atop
crop" was expected. The promise of
the crop is 500 900 bales better than
could have been fairly anticipated on
October 18th. On November 18th the
United States department of agiicul-
ture, in its final report on cotton for
the season, estimated the average yield
as 1919 pounds OF lint cotton per acre.
This yield upon the departments csti-
mated acreagc(24 ,320 900 acrcs) would
give "a crop Of 9,255 900 bales of AIS
pounds net. Outside of the depart
ment of agriculture in Washington, |
imagine very few persons can lie found
who think the crop will be as small as
this.
The average yield per acre of The
crop OF 1896 81 was IT'S pounds. The
departments estimate of yield pei acre
is therefore only about 2 IA per cent.
over last season, though it reported the
condition of the crop on October LIST rs
10 per cent. better than last season GO
against Coz and it is certain that the
indicated yield was very much better
on November 18th than on October LIST.
The department estimated the acreage
at B 1-2 per cent. more han last sea-
son. The acreage is doubt css nearer
Z per cent. increase over last season
thar 3 l-2 per cent, and the yield per
acre nearer 10 per cent. than 2 Ia Lei
cent. Increase. Assuming The acreage
to he %, LOO, 900 acres Cor I per cent.
mo,c than last selson) aud the average
yield 1876 pounds per acre Cor about 10
per cent. more ihan last season) would
give us a crop of l0,292, 900 bales.
The quantity of cotton brought into
sight to date is about 4 - er cent.
more thar to the corresponding time in
1894 and should this proportion be
maintained throughout the season the
result would be Il crop OF 10, $50, O00
bales. The movement of the l. il
therefore quite consistent with the
idea of a commercial crop of about
1O,300, 900 bales.
1t is well known that the plantations
and interior towns were PRACTICAL,
bare of cotton at The close of last sea
son as the comparatively high prices
during the summer and the urgent lie.
mtnds of Southern %spinners had caused
nearly every bale to be marketed. Il
is evident, therefore, that nothing viii
hn oI1n1 70 thiC ,,n,> r,., aI1 .N-..-
carried into II from the previous crop
There is o quite II disposition on tn,
part OF planters TO hold their cotton fol
higher prices and as it is mucn easiel
to carry cotton at the present low
prices than if it was several cents pc
pound h CHER, it is not unlikely tina
several hundred thousand bales of tn,
crow II OF thi: season may not be mar
ketcd until after September LIST, an,
thus will not be included in the ccm
mcrcial crop of this season.
In view of the supplies to be con
trlbutrd by other cottun-producin.
countries, this is more American cot
ton than the spinLers of the world vii
require for actual consumption durin,
the season.
The questions of chief interest are
therefore, to what extent the stocks il
the worlds markets will be increase,
IN the event that spiuners do not hu
during the season, beyond their actua
consumption, and what effect such in
crease in st cks should have upo,
prices.
In this connection it is well to recall
that at the beginning of the season OF
September LIST, the visible supriv q
cotton WAS less than at any time sine
September, 1889. 1t was 272 900 bale
less than at the corresponding time il
1870; 1885 900 less than in 1895
953 900 less than III 1894; 1852 co.
less than in 1898; and 1912, 900 les
than in 1892. The stocks of cotto,
held by American and Euro can mill
were also considerably less than fo
several years. The actual consump
ton OF American cotton during las
season is estimated as follows: Grea
Britain, 2,75S, 900 bales; the Continent
1921 900 bales; United States. 2.S67.
600 bales; Canada, &c 900 bales; japan
81 900 lales, aud Mexico, 80. 900 brles
making a total consumption of 0yO53.
600 bales.
During last season the business O
i ''hio was SIcdll,Y lntcrICreQ wit
by the important issues ot the pre- i
dental election, the uncertainties con
cerning the tariff legislation, and th,
scarcity and high price Of cotton Tn,
latter part of the season. Nolwlth
standing all these disturbing influence.
the United States mills actually con
sumcd 2G2 900 bales of cotton MOI,
than the previous season. In view q
the fact that of The 500 900 new spm
dies which were erected i'm our MIL,
last season many were at work but s
snort time and that more new spipdles
VIII come into operation this season, ]
think it probable that United State,
mills will consume this season 200 .OO(
bales more than last season. even il
comparatively dull trade should con.
tlnue. Our shipments of cot, on &c
Canada, Japan and Mexico will p.oba.
ply be $4,000 bales OF more in excess
OF last season as the exports to Japan
and Canada are already 10000 bales
more Than to corresponding time last
year,
My friend Mr.. Thomas Ellison. Of
Liverpool, THINKS the European mills
Will consume 104 900 bales (of 500
pounds nci) more than last season.
His estimate is very conservative in
view OF the fact that go 900 new snin.