The Jersey City news. (Jersey City [N.J.]) 1889-1906, 1898-06-21
unable to do anything. They must walt
until the majority of the Street and water
Board acts.
FERRIS REPLIES.
Shows That 5O,O0o,000 Gal
Ion Supply Will Be
Sufficient.

| celEed the lollOWlHS 4nA'
Ferris, one of the city's water exper1s:-
In my letter of May 80, 1898. to your
Board / advocated the present AWARD q
a water contract for a fifty million IN
| preference to a seventy million daily
| supply i'm the belief that by deIerrlng
construction until an increased Suppls
| effected of about two million doliars, an
amount which would pay for an auui-
tional twenty million supply when re-
uuired, the result being that a seventy
million supply would ultimately be ob-
tanned at the present price OF a niey
million plant.
AS the arguments in favor of a seventy
| million plant had already been presented
to your Board and published in our
papers, I thought my presentation would
| close the matter; but l see by the papers
that my associate has sent. a further
| mmunicatio to your Board, r~elteraung
mis- claim of a 4 per cent. yearly increase
alleged use in 1897 as a basis, figuring out
that a fifty million use would be reached
| in 1912.
Ny argument, based on the assump-
lions that the probable increase IN popu-
lation during the term of contract would
not exceed IN annual increase OF = per
cent, and that the increase In use OF
water would approximate the percentages
| of increase in population, was that, ac-
| cepting the large use of water in 1891 as
a basis. and increasing some 3 per cent.
annually. that the so million daily aver
| age use would not be reached until 1918;
but that with intelligent waste detec-
| ton and prevention the fifty million sup
ply would last the full term OF contract:
While | know that, to any forecast OF
the future must be attached a percentage
of uncertainty, yet with a proper analy-
sis of the past it is possible TO obtain
a close approximation to the future, al
most, if not quite equally, a mathemati-
cal deduction. and in view of the ilnpor-
lance of the question desire that you
should have my analysis before you.
nj =. III Arv;o ~
annual per cent. income increase in popu-
lation, by periods, of Jersey City, Harri-
son and Kearny. BY this table the U. s.
census in 1870 showed a population for
Jersey City, 1884; Harrison, 4,129, and
Kearny, 94, making a total of 90,437. In
| 1895 the State census showed the popu-
lation to be for the same places respect
lively, 1872, 713, 9,674, 10,4S7, total 202,S74. Ac-
| cording to these figures, if the increase
was 9 per cent. annually, in 1928 the popu-
lation of the county would be 64,O0o, and
if at 4 per cent. the population would be
COS, 800. On the basis of q millions of gall
Ions in use in 1897, at 8 pei cent. increase
the use of water in 1928 in millions would
be $50, and at 4 per cent, 74.9. With
population of 464,0 600 the daily use per
capita in 1928 would be at the 8 per cent.
increase 125 gallons, and at 4 per cent,
11 gallons.
Mr.. Ferris continues
From this table it will be seen that the
annual increase in population of the dis
trict for which our water supply is In
tended, from 1870 to 1880 was 9 6-1o per
cent. from 1880 to 1890 was 8 3-1o, from
1890 to 1895 was 2. 6-10.
Certainly this gives with its constantly
! decreasing annual percentage of increase
by periods, reasonable, almost mathe-
| NAUTICAL assurance that an estimate of
future increase in population at rate Of
3 per cent. annually would be a very
liberal one.
Next / will consider the average daily
use of water by Jersey City. In the
Chief Engineers report of December 81.
1881, is given the use of water. yearly,
i from p year eeqis e 1 lssi' : ne RE aye ysar e an-
nual increase in use for that period was
II Ito per cent.
Next / will take the average daily use
Bayonne eliminated) from 1882 to 1897.
and for that purpose accept the figures
CARDS 1887: In 1852 the use was 1913 million
gallons; in 1890 the use was POS, an an
nuaI increase of 5 CLIO per cent; in 1880 the
use was 205 million gallons; in 1896 the
use was PA, an annualincrease OF = per
cent.
For 1897 the given use is 264 million
| gallons, which is about s Der cent increase
over previous year. AS there were some
complications that year regarding amount
to be deducted for Bayonne supply. and as
the reports for January. February, March
April and May of present year show only
an average use of 25.5 million gallons IL
certainly looks as if there was an error
somewhere in the reported 1897 use.
By periods then. 1858 to 1881 shows ans
nual gain of II Ito per cent; 1882 to 1890,
5 Clio; 1890 to 1896, g.. A continually de-
creasing annua percentage of increase,
and in that light an estimated 3 per cent.
annual increase in the future consump-
ton is certainly a liberal one.
My estimated use of water for the fu-
lion gallons daily, in 1897 "a use with no
tion), and is increased 8 per cent. annually
thereafter. At that rate the fifty million
limit would not be reached until 1918. |
certainly am of the opinion expressed by
Mr.. Fteley, Chief Engineer of Croton
Board, that with waste detection and
prevention a fifty million supply should
last us during full period of proposed con-
tract.
We nave no practically i~nexhaustible
supply to draw from like Milwaukee,
Cleveland, Detroit, Philadelphia and Buff
falo, and arguments deducted from their
use of water have hardly any bearing on
our case.
1t behooves Jersey City certainly to
encourage all paying water consumption,
but it is equally clear that all waste
should be lone away with, and that nc
water should be furnished except at re-
munerative prices.
Respectfully submitted,
GARWOOD FERRIS