Delaware gazette and state journal. (Wilmington, Del.) 1883-1902, 1898-08-04
PREDICTIONS ABOUT war.
New York Evening ro..a.

81
New York Evening PosA
We have been 70 successful. hitherto, in
our war with Spain, that the failure OF its
principal events to verify the predictions of
military and naval ''experts" has not yet
attracted much attention. But tine specta-
tors are beginning to see that actual war
differs from war OH paper in nothing SO
much as in proving the truth Of the old
saying that it is the unexpected which hap
pens. sE
The naval experts have been for years
writing about keys" and coaling stations,
as determining factors in the next naval
war. Yet we have brought the present
naval conflict so near an end that we arc
taking up the distractions in our harbors.
without keys or coaling stations playing
any appreciable part in il. We were as.
sured for years that Hawaii was an essential
key to the defence of our Pacific Coast; yet
in this war we defended our Pacific coast by
sailing out of neutral port, destroying the
enemy's fleet, and taking possession of his
principal key and coaling station and sup
plying ourselves with coal there. Not only
this. but we next send a military expedition,
seize another Pacific Sey and coaling sta
ton, leave an American citizen in charge,
and carry on the Spanish staff as prisoners,
and deposit them at the first key. Finally.
to complete the case against the experts, we
annex Hawaii, which we had always been
told would, on the first outbreak of HOSTILE
ties, be seized by our enemy and used as
base for operations against the United States.
But this was not enough. One great argu-
ment about coaling stations was that
country must have plenty of them, because
battleship could not make a long voyage
without fresh supplies of coal, SO that with
out coaling stations all round the world,
there was no such thing as real and con-
tinuous sea-rower AS if to prove that
there was nothing In this, we sent the Ore
from Wpetarn rpoat rnnp1 Cana
Horn, to join the fleet off Cuba-a voyage
of 1900 miles. How this was done, we
need not stop to inquire. but it was NOT done
by means of coaling stations, and whatever
the voyage proves, u certainly. does not
establish the proposition that battleships
cannot be navigated from one part of the
world to another without coaling stations.
In negative way, the Spaniards them
selves have aided in the demonstration.
They have plenty of keys and coaling sta
tons. Cuba is both one and the other. So
is Porto Rico. So are the Philippines,
Better still. these places are all garrisoned,
in one case by large army. Two Of them
are close to our coast. and therefore ought to
be "basses" full OF danger to us, Just as
Hawaii was to be on the other side. They
have not proved so.
Another demonstration OF the difficulty
OF successful prediction in the present war
was next arranged to be given by sending
fleet TO attack the coast of spain 5000 miles
away. Most people who had read what the
experts had been saying about keys and
coaling stations, rubbed their eyes when
they came across this announcement. II
was evident that the thing could not be
done. for we have not kew or coaling
station between the United States and the
Spanish coast. But IL now seems that the
coal may be taken alohG with the fleet. In
other words, the United States, with its two
great coasts, from which fleets can be sent
dirprtipn 10 ifaa1f taet nv
and coaling station in the world
To turn to dry land. it is beginning to
arouse the wonder of European critics that
our operations at Santiago, so far rs they
| go, tend to throw doubt on the great postu-
late on which the whole continental milf
no believer in universal peace. calls the
attention of the military experts to the per-
| formances of our volunteers and asks
whether, If volunteers can, after two or
three months training in the field fight as
| we'll as regulars, it is worth while TO compel
every man in Europe to pass through a
military service of three or two years. or
even one. This is a simple question, but it
| is Il hard one to answer. Does not Santiago
| prove, 1t asks, that THE bdrrack may not
be required for the military preparation Of
the masses of peopleY' Answer experts
| The truth Of the matter Is that while
naval and military experts are excellent
| and necessary advisers as to the actual
operations of war, they are not gifted with
| the power OF prediction, and can only fore
see some OF the conditions Which may in
| the future affect naval and military
operations. For instance, on the most inn
portant question of all-whom will the
| next war be with they are as blind as any
| OF us; yet. as the present war shows that
is. in considering what the operations of
the war are to be, the most important CUES
tion OF all. As they cannot determine this
prime factor in the problem, they generally
assume that the next war will be fought
against some Power like England. or q
European combination of equal strength.
With forces on both sides nearly equal, It is
obvious that each side ought to have every
advantage that foresight can suggest.
coaling station is one, a key is another.
an immense standing army is third, a
huge fleet is fourth. 1t follows that any
great nation unproyided with these is help
less. Consequently. the argument of the
experts always tends to prove that any
nation not always armed TO the teeth and
ready and fully provided with keys and
coaling stations, will be destroyed. For
tunately, when an actual war breaks out
between country provided with large
standing army, and a fleet, and plenty OF
KEYS and coaliDg stations. and nation
which has almost no standing army, and an
insufficient fleet, and no keys and coaling
stations, the former goes to the wall. This
war shows, just as almost every war that pre-.
coded it showed, that strategy does not give
the power of prediction. We do not our.
selves pretend to be strategists. But we
know key and coaling station when we
see one because they have been pointed out
and laid down by the experts on their charts
for the poor blind. ignorant civilian to
study and prepare TO pay for. And how
nave the productions about them been
verified? How has the prediction that
regulars will always beat raw troops--the
idea at the bottom of the whole gigantic