Arizona republican., 1898-03-22

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 States would probably begin opera 1 tions in the event of war by an open assault on Havana, the Spanish au- thorities are apparently devoting their best energies to perfecting the de- fences of that port. In execution of this plan they have concentrated sev- eral of Spain's best warships in that harbor and have arranged to reinforce them with other men-of-war as soon as possible. A fleet of torpedo boats is already on it's way there to assist in the general defense.
 It is stated that the harbor defences have been greatly strengthened in the | last few months by improved fortif- cations at Moro Castle and Cabanas and also by the introduction of sys- tenn of submarine mines and torpedoes. Local strategists seriously question the wisdom of these steps. The ma iority are inclined to the belief that the Spaniards are putting their best vessels in veritable cul de sac. from which escape would be almost impos- sible in case the United States should invest the harbOr with the large and formidable fleet near at hand avail able for such purpose. Even With the naval endorsements said to be on the way to Havana, the total Spanish strength there would be decidedly less than that of the naval forces which the United States could put against it at short notice.
 According to naval experts, it would be an easy matter for Admiral Sicard's fleet at Tortugas to completely block ade the harbor of Havana and shut off the Spanish vessels in the harbor from all communication with the out side world. In case they attempted to escape they would be sunk one by one, and in case they remained their of ficers and crews would be subjected to slow starvation.
 The island no longer affords the means of subsistence and all food sup plies from the outside world would be effectually checked by the blockad- ing squadron. At least. this is the view of the case taken by naval of f1cers who have studied the situation, and it has every indication of plausi- bility. It is generally admitted, how ever, that all signs fail in war, just as they do in love. and that it is never a safe maxim to believe that the enemy will do exacely what you expect him to do. Consequently, the plan of bot ting up the Spanish fleet in the har- Dor of Havana may not be so easy of accomplishment as it appears. The Spaniards evidently know what they are about, and it is hardly credible that they would knowingly place themselves in position where all the chances were against them.
 Unless the court of inquiry investi- gating the cause of the destruction Of the battle ship Maine shall report that the Spanish government is responsible, directly or indirectly, for that most deplorable episode, there is said to be no tangible reason for termination of the friendly relations existing bs-
 tween the United States and Spain. If ! Spain is absolved from all compliclty in that disaster it is represented that the present conditions will remain un- ] changed unless one nation or the other 1 does something to provoke the other i beyond the bonds of endurance Con- l SeQuently the controlling influences in l both countries are devoting their best energies for the avoidance of any ac- tiOn that can possibly be regarded as hostile or offensive to the other. In the present excited state of the people of both countries it is realized that
 war can only be averted by the most careful and conservative action. The progress of events alone can deter mine whether war is necessary to set tie the issues which have already strained the relations of the two coun- tries to the utmost tension.
 l It is these considerations which
 cause President Mckinley to proceed
 slowly and deliberately in the formula | tion and execution of plans for allevi- l 1f in hn 11 eft
 Although he has practically concluded
 that the astive intervention of the
 United States is the only possible way | of ending the insurrection on the is
 land, he is somewhat embarrassed as
 to how he shall proceed in that di ec- ton without giving offense to a friend
 ly nation and seemingly justify the
 claim that he provoked that nation
 into a war in defense of it's sovereign
 rights. There is no question in his
 mind that Spain is unable to put down
 the insurrestion. and that the Cubans
 are clearly entitled to the right of
 self-government. He is willing to
 heed the repeated advice of Congress
 and employ the full force of the gov
 ernment for the restoration of peace
 in Cuba. but he does not see clearly
 how such a thing can be accomplished
 in the present state of affairs withou! his being put in attitude of provok-
 ing Spain into war in defense of one
 of it's colonies. It is acknowledged
 that the strength of the position ot
 Spain lies in the fact that she is de-
 ermined to do nothing that can be
 construed as an unfriendly act toward
 the United States, and that if war re-
 suits it will be because it was made in evitable by interference in it's nationa , affairs.
 Diplomates agree that the active in-
 reference of the United States in the
 Cuban revolution would be a casus belli, according to International law and that Spain could not tamely sub nit to it without loss of honor. They admit, however, that anything less , han fOrcible intervention for instance