New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1898-11-27
IGNORANCE FOREClSTING.
THE TENDENCY OF CERTAIN TYPES or
WEATHER TO PERSIST WHEN
ONCE ESTABLISHED.

prohabI, no moro substantial advance has
beon made in the art Of forccasting the weather
than that which was foreshadowcd and par
tiallv achieved by Ralph Abercrdmbic, an anna
tour dcvotee Of metcorology in England ten or
fifteen Years ago The further Development by
German scientists of the central idea OF Aper-
cronbie's system was the subject Of a paper
read bv Douglas Archibald at the last meeting
Of the British Association for the Advancement
of Science
Tho plan pursued by all official weather fore
casters for the last two or three decades has
depended upon the movements of areas OF 10"
and high barometrc pressure across lana ana
sea in n generally castcrly direction. Certain
kinds OF weather belong to the lows" and other
kinds to the highs" But variation from the
average route Of the storms. or Of their IRE
quency. or Of their intensity, will make a con-
siderable difference with any given locality.
Abercromhie's discovery was that certain com
paratively permanent and stationary areas or
high pressure over the continents and seas
shift their positions somewhat, and undergo al
terations in size and steepness. and that these
notifications OF the general situation have a
distinct influence on the paths and behavior or
the short-liv quickly moving highs and lows
Hence a different order Of proceedings may be
expected when one of thege sets Of conditions
prevails from that which should be anticipated
at another time
The deviation from the normal weather for
the season might be slight. but it would often
be distinctly recognizable and would persist for
several weeks in succession Then the perma-
nent highs would undergo a reimbursement. and
a new type OF weather would ensue That is TO
say. the low areas, that produce most OF the
rain and that apt to pass any given station
in this latitude every three or four days, would
assume a habit. becoming wetter or drer.
hotter or colder or otherwise departing from
the immediate precedent.
Abercrombie identified four OF these types in
the weather OF the British Isles. subsequently
an American meteorologst worked out the
changes to which the Pacific Coast subject
and his analysis and description have been
printed. No doubt the same investigation has
been made for the Atlantic Coast region. al
though it does not follow that the results have
got into print.
Mr.. Archibald told the British Association the
other day that K0ppen and Bebber two leading
meteoroogists in Germany had distinguished as
many twenty types and sub-types. lie ex-
hibited charts. showing the different distribu-
ton Of pressures that gave rise to these types
When any one type was well esta blished the Sc
quence Of events would repeat itself at intervals
Of about four days in Northern Europe. Hence
one could foresee. with approximate accuracy,
the probable situation for each day for period
OF that length. and also discern the general
promise for much longer time Beyond half
a week il would be impractcable to say just
what the weather would be on given day; but
one could make shrewd and scientific guess
10 the likelihood of its being milder or colder
than the season would warrant one in expect
ing and whether II would be wetter or drier
than usual.