The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1898-11-15
ESTIMATE OF THE COTTON CROP.
A Prediction That Price of Cotton
VIII Be Higher.

Average Liverpool Cotton Elk
change Q47 members) .............1O ,0Ss
Average New Orleans Cotton Elk
change ga members) ............. .lO544,S Sol
Latham, Alexander & Co...........1O $4,000
| A. j. R. Landauer ...................lO44o'V
| Newburger Cotton Company ......llOO0O0O
! Henry Neill ..........................u Voo'VVV
Making average ...................1OSS7 ,076
Crop turned out ....,............. IL 1899
On Jan q. 1898, rumors being industri-
ously circulated of Mr.. Henry Neill' adopt
| ing 1l,5000jO bales as the growth crop,
caused the decline in cotton.
On Feb. y, 1898, Mr.. Henry NELL esti7
mates the commercial crop at 111S3,oOO
bales. and says, Still much picking OF
| cotton gong on IN most of the cotton
states. The exceptional mildness of the
| season having continued to open the bolls
and to mature the unexpected late
! growth" He especially instances the great
states of Mississippi and Georgia as evil
IDENTIFY having thus secured far more than
he allowed them in his 100000 estimate.
| But he ADDS the causes producing this late
i growth are not peculiar TO those states.
| But have been universal. However, as
| 11,O00 900 has been stated as a minimum,
considers it unnecessary to alter them in
detail or further than to say emphaticas-
| ly that he now, considers II, 900 a mini
| mum estimate of the amount that will be
| delivered in the current twelve months.
But he can no longer venture to place a
limit upon the actual growth of the sea-
| son. The authority states, while prepar-
| ing the above, have received the follow
ing cable from Mr. Henry Neill: Confirm
| growth much over former estimates; pick
ing continues; no signs of exhaustion
| From early October, 1897 Mr.. Neill in
| L.
| early February he indicated a crop of 12,-
100000 bales. and thus loaded the mar
ket with a prospective 900 which
! didn't materialze. The effect on the
world, the same as though produced and
marketed. Now on Oct. 10, 1898, Mr. Nell
says; THE ensuing thirty days will go
far to make or mar this crop. To con-
firm the large figures heretofore put forth
much, if not ALL will be decided by the
ensuing four weeks On Nov. 2 1898, he
makes an estimate of this crop of II 500. 900
bales, commercial crop 100000 total crop
| and the world must swallow and digest
these figures, because Mr. Neill makes the
statement. And because last crop contlu-
ued to grow and make and exceed earlier
| estimates.
We present the following for consider
alton:
On Feb. u, 1898, A. j. r. I.andauer &
Co. estimated the crop at 100000 bales
and said 10000 bales either way would
not materially effect the result
This was 10000 bales nearer than Mr..
Nei-s estimate on actual outturn.
MIR. Neil makes much comment of the
amount carried over from last crop in
order to justify his extreme figures. Sup
pose we say thai amount was 300 bales
Is it not fair TO presume that with the
existing low prices. with the crop no long
er fruiting and making with that abandon
ed in the fields being no longer renumer-
| alive to gather with the greater oppor-
tunity for profit, that not only 100000 bales,
but at least 10000 bales VIII not appear
in the commercial crop
On Oct. 26 TO %, 1898, we had up to that
time killing frosts over the most of the
cotton belt stopping any further progress
of growth or fruiting of cotton. There
| fore, granting that conditions have been
such that the fairly well developed bolis
have opened and win be picked can such
comparison offset or equal the continental
growth and gathering in of cotton, as in
the crops OF 1894 and 1895, and 1897 and
1898, when picking continued into April?
| We say, most emphatically, mol
On Nov.8, 1888, a Mississippi cotton firm
undertook to say: ''The crop is at least
| two weeks later than the general average,
The frost has been a decided advantage,
killing all the surplus foliage and stop
| ping further development of the plant.
| The cool nights, followed by sunshine dur
ing the day is now opening the entire
! crop" AS against the continued growth,
| development of fruit and gathering enc
year ago. That the existing conditions of
| a crop more than two weeks late, and al
| ready all further progress cut off by frost,
| should turn out more cotton than the ia
| vorabe conditions of one year ago, and in
duce them from a small interior town,
| with their views warped by their imme-
| diate surroundings, to send out to The
| world an, estimate of 11,700OO0 bales mini
mum crop, we can only suppose they have
| a dun ak, hard TO grind, and future devel-
| opments will place them in the foremost
| ranks of ridicule in estimating the cotton
| crop of America. Continued decline has
| caused the farmer and merchant to gather
and sell rapidly, and the movement has
| misled the world at large we fairly believe.
Taking actual outturn equal to last
year in all respects, and which present
crop conditions don't justify, either in
quantity or quality.
Take Mr.. Henry Neirs commercial crop
figures. II, 10000 bales and de-
duct difference by comparison
last year in acreage, $4,000 bales
Deduct amount to be carried over into
next crop, 100000, $lO450O Though We
think from various causes commercial
crop. 10. 49,, 900, 1t viii be 100000 bales)
The Texas and Indian Territory crop.
we don't think, viii equal our maximum
figures of 100000 bales, and probably not
exceed those Of The crop Of 1895. Good
cotton Will prove valuable property, and
we anticipate enhancement in values all
along the line 50 soon as the volume Of
movement begins to run well below last
years figures. Ruler
suDeryfsors of Registry Lists.