New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1898-06-02
THE GREATEST GRAIN YEAR.

THE GREATEST GRAlN IEhh-
The month of May. last but one Of this I'M
naralleled crop year in respect to exports. be-
ing now ended cose approximation may ne
formed % the aggregate OF exports during
eleven months Of the year. According to the
| vorious trade reports which give the only In
formation accessible. until the official prel'm
mary returns appear the exports of whea: and
fonr from both coasts seem TO have been about
| l. OH $40 bushels in the month Of May, with
| ont allowance for small shipments during the
last three days from Pacific ports The prellm-
mary exports officially given for the month or
Apr amounted -four included. to l6.3S0,"f'
bushels. and the net exports. as finally stated
for nine months ending with March, amounted.
| -four Included 10 165, ,433 bushels. Thus IN
eleven months of the crop year the exports or
wheat appear TO have been not FAR from 49,
3S3251 bushels quantity which mas Deen eh-
ceeded only once in the whole OF any crop year
nonelv in the wear 1892 The other three
wears which resulted in exports exceeding $780,
600 900 bushels were the crop year 1893. with
! 1a1 o1o 635 bushels. -four included, and the two
successive crop years 1880 and $751; with about
$50 900 and lS6O00OOO bushels. respective
| ly. 1t Is scarcely probable that the shipments
in June will prove large enough 10 LIT the ag-
ererate for the year up 10 the quantity exported
in the crop year 1892 namely, 225G85 .sl2 bush
els-but It Is likely not to fall far short
The feature which makes this year altogether
beyond precedent is the enormous outgo Of corn
at the same time with exports Of wheat scarce
" ever surpassed. The trade reports indicate that
the exports In the month Of May were about
c6G4OO19 bushels Of corn. a quantity never
equalled in any other month, the nearest APP
proach having been 25,352, la bushels in March
OF last year This enormous outgo follows OK
ports OF % 938,53O bushels. according TO the
preliminary return for APRIL and with the Anal
return for nine months preceding, together With
allowance at four bushels to the barrel for corn
meal exported, brings up the aggregate for the
eleven months TO about 1872, 1884 bushels.
! From these two items alone the exports in ten
months, including -four and meal, were IN value
something over S22S 100000. nor Is this the
whole contribution Of the United States TO the
worlds food supply. In ten months the OK
ports of oats have been S16.031 .019 in value; Of
rye S626SG97 and Of barley. S5,12S,G03 In
value. Adding these, the total value exceeded
1921. 300. 900 in ten months, and with estimated
value for May quantities only being known as
yet and reasonable allowance for June, It
may be roughly estimated that the total value
of breadstuTs sent TO other countries will con-
siderably exceed S3OO0OO.0OO for the year.
| In other years when such a movement has
been In progress It has not infrequently hap
pened-as In June. 1886 and 1887. and again in
June 1901 and 1S02-that the Outgo in the last
month Of the crop year proved surprisingly
heavy Usually the size Of the coming crop
determines in great measure the price at which
wheat Is sold for foreign consumption during the
month OF June and If the promise OF yield here
Is large foreigners have opportunity to pur-
chase at somewhat declining prices the guam
THY required to bridge over their needs until
their own new supplies Of wheat begin to come
forward. This year a heavy decline in price
has resulted from the breaking OF the specula-
ton in the May option, which fell "a cents from
the highest point July also falling 21la cents.
This is readily explained by the prospect OF a
very large yield during the coming fall SO
bright the prospects considered that some.
whose estimates are regarded as Of especial
value already publish the statement that the
output seems likely to be not far from 100000
600 bushels, in that event exceeding by about
SSOOOOOO the largest yield heretofore recog-
nized by Government reports
1t seems unfortunate that in an elaborate
statement Just made public by the Bureau OF
Statistics purporting to show the worlds crop
Of wheat for the last year and series OF years,
no better figures could be given for this coun-
try than those published by the Department
some months ago. which had long been discred-
tied by the actual movement Of grain. Instead
Of about 53O,0OO,0OO bushels, the only trade re-
port which corresponds even approximately
with the actual movements recorded indicates
yield Of $50 900, 900 bushels or more, but II the
indications for the coming harvest prove cor
rect something like 10O,0O0,000 bushels may
be added to this enormous production. In that
event the United States will be In position to
supply, If there should be need. quantities Of
brcadstuffs even larger than have been exported
during the crop year now almost ended But
1t Is fair to observe that there is MS yet little
TO indicate that the foreign demand will prove
as heavy as 1t has been during the last year.
and unless 1t should be remarkably large the
heavy yield In this country will be likely to
make prices contrast somewhat unfavorably