The semi-weekly messenger. [volume] (Wilmington, N.C.) 1897-1908, 1898-07-26
The Financial Outlook.
Henry Ciews & Coz
New York, July %.

New YORK, July - /
Ultimately the war will prove a pow |
erful stimulus to the whole country.
It has buried old political issues which
were paralyzing trade n industry,
and developed in our people a spirit
of confidence and aggressiveness which
will inevitably be reflected in the bus
mess affairs of the nation. The polit-
ical situation is more satisfactory
than for many years past. New ques-
tons are before us, the solution OF
which will broaden and strengthen the
whole country from the Atlantic TO the
Pacific. In the financial situation there
is also reason for confidence. Money
is plentiful and promises TO continue
so. Gold must come from Europe in
settlement of the extraordinary trade
balance, and our supplies ara likely TO
be materially increased by shipments
from the klondike. 1t is quite likely
also that the banks will increase their
circulation 10 a considerable extent,
when they have acquired a supply OF
the new bonds; the placing of which
as a popular loan was a gratifying and
significant example of the confidence
Of the people in the government. MS
moral effect of this method was ex-
cellent, and worth its cost to The gov
eminent, which could readily have
syndicated the whole issue at q more
profitable price.
The agricultural situation is anoth-
er and very important element OF
promise. Farmers are rapidly getting
out of debt, and with increased pros
perity are buying more freely Of both
the necessities and luxuries of life.
The better prices for wheat mean the
distribution of many additional mill
lions in the west and a larger traffic
for the railroads., both ~eaStbound and
~weStbound, for some time to come.
Western merchants coming to this city
are enthusiastic in their reports of
trade prospects during the coming fall,
and the outlook is that the next six
months will show a very decided bust
ness revival. Even in the south trade
shows marked recuperative tenden-
cies, Notwithstanding the discourage
ingly low price of cotton. Industrial
activity is growing and is likely TO
follow close upon business revival.
Many new enterprises are under con-
sideration, and a larger demand for
all sorts of raw materials Will soon be
manifest.
Both sentiment and facts are on the
side of higher prices in the stock mar
ket. At the moment, for reasons best
known to themselves, the market lead
ers are not ready for an advance.
Stagnation however cannot be perma-
nent. Activity will return, and prices
must move along the lines of least re-
sistance; and that will be upwards.
unless unfavorable developments arise
from the war, which do not now seem
likely.
There have been some reasons for
uneaSineSs as to the possibility of some
form of Intervention being attempted
by European governments. AS time
| goes on, those misgivings seem to lose
| their seriousness. There has been ev-
| idence enough of Spain having done
her utmost to enlist the help of the
| other pOwers; but, so far, every one Of
the leading European governments has
persistently adhered to an attitude Of
strict neutrality. It had almost been
taken for granted that we should find
II in our occupation of the Phil
ippines. At that point, however, the
last fears of a hitch from some form
of German ~interposition have been set
at rest by entirely satisfactory sssur-
ances from that government; and, so
far as may be inferred from diplomatic
outgivings, there is not likely 20 be
any challenge to such a settlement
Of that sensitive question as nay
seem best to our government.
Viewing the war situation as a
whole, then, it presents no discourage
ing aspects for this country, but it
is suggestive of possibilities that peace
may be unnecessarily postponed. The
Spanish government would of course
be only too glad to consider terms of
settlement: but is is probably quite
safe to assume that Sagasta burst not
accept the conditions upon which the
United States must insist-the abso-
lutte surrender of Cuba, Porto Rico and
the Philippines. There is the great OBJ
stacle to peace; and it remains to be
seen how it will be s~urmounted.