New-York tribune., 1898-10-17
A GREAT FUTURE.
THE UNITED STATES AND THE COMING
STRUGGLE IN THE PACIFIC.
From The Nineteenth Century

results Of shin canal across Central America and
It's effects the development Of the Pacihc there
has been a disposition tho one side 10 exag
gerate the proba BILE influence OF II on sea trahic
and on the other TO minimize the resources OF tht
countries Of Asia and Of Pacific America. The
great basis of all Is food, and one or tn'
most striking economic features Of the presen
generation has been the increase in the world
supply OF foodstuffs. Those who Judge only by th'
effect Of this increase prices In the great mar
kets would have MS believe that the increase II
supply has been al greater speed than the IN
crease in population, but this Is not So for thf
needs Of the population have increased I'm a higher
ratio than the Increase In numbers Enlarged pro
ductlon has lowered cost and abundant supply mas
created demand. which In turn has stimulated the
opening I'M of new channels Take for instance
wheat. for which until quite recent years we were
practically dependent on Russia and North Amer
lea. but which now receive In ceaseless stream.
from Argentina from Chill from Australia and
from India. II Is In the nature OF trade that as
sources Of supply are developed. Old sources
become unremuneralVe ana tne h noI ot
Australia may have nearly ruined sheep-tarmlhe
in Scotland. the coffee Of Brazil may have impoy-
erished the planters OF Ceylon the wheat or Argen-
tina may have reduced our demands on the wheat
grower Of Eastern Europe-but In each case ne"
course of trade and industry has been created. =.
The point to be kept in view is that whether the
Nicaragua Canal should should not become a
great commercial WE terway to rival the Suez Canal
II fail give incalculable impetus 10
the development Of the Pacific. both commercially
and politically. We have been too much accus-
toned to regard the commerce OF the East as re-
stricted to certain grooves-as. for instance opium
and indigo and spices in India. tea and SIX IN
China, and Within living memory the WnoIe
foreign trade Of India has altered Her traditional
produ y have fallen into the background and now
we md cotton and cotton goods goods i juie ,,,n ana
ber. and. lastly. coal japan formerly asso-
ciated with little else than bamboo goods
and curios. exports silk. tea, tobacco.
matches. textile fabrics many other manufact-
ures. and coal Tea Is no longer the main item OF
Chinese trade. and in silk she las longer the
first place but new industries have taken and are
taking the place Of what alone made European
traders clamor for the opening Of ports in the
10 i1a II
regions capable Of producing everything that can
be be produced anywhere and it includes a popula-
lion capable OF arpreciatin in due time. every
thhS mat western experience can supply.
CHINA AND SOUTH AMERICA.
change In the habits Of the Asiatic peoples is,
no doubt condition precedent TO the economic
and social development We look for I'm the Pacific.
But the social revolution has already begun. II Is
In full progress in Japan and II will follow upon
the heels OF the railway contractor in China. DO
realize all that Is implied in the fact that Of
about tour hundred and fifty thousand miles OF
railway in the world Asia has not more than thirty
thousand-that while Europe has mile of rail
way for every 240O inhabitants. Asia has only
for every 5000? The very thought Of the work
involved In remedyng the disproporton is
steam aud mechanical invention have done for the
peoples In the Atlantic area. can in fancy
place n limit on the possibilities Of the Pacific?
Let US but suggest one possibility Between the
iacihc coasts OF Central and South America and
the long sea-marg!n OF China. with It's enormous
itlnterland Is great waste OF waters dotted with
Islands which cap never be anything else than in
cidents In the career Of the Pacific China
IS teemlhg with restless population instinct with
the industrial faculty whose elevation 10 the
higher planes Of civilization must be through the
avenues Of trade. For that enormous and rapidly
growing people there cannot be sufficient employ
ment at home to satisfy the ambitions that will be
created In the coming years. But across that vast
ocean waste there is the enormous area OF South
America scantily populated by non-industria peo-
pies. There can be no great progress in South
America without great access of labor and OF
industrial enterprise. Hitherto the population has
been augmented by comparatively slender stream
frop h.. Snftfh Of In fEa ft,trs
South America should become the reservoir for the
overflow of the Mongolian races? The Spanish
American has done little good with his great heri-
tage He has wasted his substance in riotous
polticalism. and preferred to eat the husks OF
financial prodgaty TO returning 10 the fated cafof
honest industry and the robe and ring Of progress
sve natonalism. II he is submerged in yellow
flood it is doubtful il the world will be the poorer
This at least. is a possibility 10 be kept in view
that the yellow agony which has at times con-
vulsed the Pacific States of North America may
be destined TO sweep away the diseased and de-
bilitated natonalities of the Southern Continent.
Asia. It may be said. wants little that South Amer
lea at present produces. and South America wants
little of what Asia produces. But what if Asia
stretches to America and creates
world there a sequel to the world which
Europe is steadily creating In Asia? Here. at any
rate. Is partially occupied and imperfectly util-
tied continent. with imitable resources. situated
midway between the two worlds on which. in the
generations come, the overlooking races of the
East will cast longing eyes.
Already more than one-haf the popula ton-quite
three-quarters. If We omit primitive peoples-is
Following Is pretty close approximation OF that
populations
Pacific North America II 100000
Pacific Central America.
Australasia 100000
Dutch East Indies Philippines and the islands
u Oc,ana 800
British Indies Bermuda and dependencies 900
Malay Peninsula siam.
French IulO China
Corea ......... 1900
Eastern Siberia
Japan 5000
Empire and Islands
Total > 900
ON the basis Of the Levasseur estimate Of 1850 rho
population OF the earth may now be taken AT
800 1000. OF which considerably more than one
half therefore is In the Pacific area