The Anaconda standard. [volume] (Anaconda, Mont.) 1889-1970, 1898-05-17

trated on the weather drops in or writes
to tell US how TO run the office that the
best possible results may be obtained
But as a rule these wiseacres CONNIE
themselves to circles where their state
ments VIII pass current because no u
present Is In a position 10 estapish
their falsity and absurdity.
"A few years ago these prophets ex-
listed in great numbers. no village pc
ing without n or more of them. But
increasing general knowledge on the
part of the people at large. particularly
the practical and usually reliable. FORE
casts of the weather. bureau. has caused
many OF them to seek other and more
credulous fields. In the days OF WIG
gins. Venner and Devoe we were much
annoyed by communications n visits
from men whose object was notoriety
that would enable them to sell almanacs
n pamphlets forecasting the weather.
"Venner. who died some time ago in
Canada, based his system of prognos-
tication pom the habits Of animals. as
squirrels gathering nuts and the CHAR
acter of fur grown by minks, offers and
the like. To this he added the goose
bone All of these have been employed
for generations. as is shown by hun
dreds of proverbs, as:
when the ass begins 10 bray
BE sure we will have rain that day.
Which IL varied i'm the old rhyme:
'When the donkey blows his horn
It's time to house you hay and corn
The goose bone has furnished in
spiration to generations of weather
prophets and formed one of the corner
stones Of Venner's system. According
to the old theory, the whiteness of the
breastbone of a goose indicated the
amount of snow that might be expected
to fall the ensuing winter, while the
thickness or hinness of the bone clearly
told the severity or mildness of the
coming weather. A large number of
these proverbs have been collected and
published by the bureau. the one relat-
ing to the goose bone running as fol-
lows:
" If the November goose bone il thick,
So will the winter weather be;
II the November goose bone be thin,
So will the winter weather be-
This may not rise to the dignity of
genuine poetry. but plenty Of old farm
ers still accept il as the gospel truth.
'Devoe was quite a successful weather
prophet a few years ago-at least he
gained notor.ety enough to enable him to
make some money selling his pamphlets
to credulous people, which was the ex-
tent of his ambition. He lived at Hack
ensack. n. j.. where he operated a saw
nllI. ne useu 10 frequently tOIlt W
the New York office where / was sta
toned at that time. The old man ig-
nored squirrels. ground hogs and goose
bones and scared into higher spheres.
He claimed to be possessed Of phenome-
nal eyesight. which enabled him to see
an approaching storm while ii was yet
300 or 400 miles away, and. strange as
il may appear, found numerous disci-
pies. / had many talks with them. His
.Narftfa, u+.g thnt Of the nxnnt raNFarSa
of the facts.
"One day he disclosed the real system
upon which he operated. Coming into
the office he announced in a loud voice:
1T will rain next Thursday
"I 1t didn't rain last Thursday / re-
Piled. nor the Thursday before that
1T hasn't rained for six Thursday
he interrupted. that's why l say II Will
rain next Thursday
I'm this is disclosed the secret system
upon which most of our weather proph-
cts operate. They 90 upon the aw OF
average: il Is as likely 10 rain upon a
Thursday as any other day in the week.
Devoe reasoned. 1t has not rained for
six Thursdays. therefore II viii rain
upon the fifth day of next week. The
law of average is correct enough where
a long time is taken into account, but is
Of no value as applied to particular
days.
For years these prophets continued
to alternately attack and advise us.
They made dogmatic statements which
we were unable to disprove and so as
sumed hat they had won victories.
The decay into which students of aver
age. goose bones and north winds have
fallen of late is due to the authentic
statistics which we nave collected. The
weather bureau was established some
thinG more han "a years & and we
have at last accumulated a mass of
cold facts which establishes the entire
fallacy of their pet theories.
REV. Mr.. Hicks of st. Louis, pub
Usher of the World and Works, "A ape
i'm which he exploits his pet theories
n incidentally reaps something of a
financial harvest. Is still hOurishing.
He undertakes to forecast the weather.
a year in advan being "A light task
for him. He draws on the Bible some
what. but places his principal reliance
upon the planet Vulcan, which, by the
way. owing to its close proximity to
the sun. no man has eve seen. Mr..
Hicks continues, | understand, to mak
a living out of the weather business,
though We never hear from him d.
reCtly."
lis there nothing of value in these
old proverbs"
In some Of them. beyond a doubt.
since they are often the essence of long
observation. But much depends upon
where they are used. In the Bible we
read that the north wind driveth away
the rain This was quite generally
true i'm Palestine 5000 years ago. and
doubtless IL to-day. but would not be
a safe rule To apply In South America
or Australia. The old aphorism. which
u Lord himself quoted. When the sky
is red at even we say we shall have
fair weather. and which is expressed
in the old rhyme:
Rainbow at night,
Sailors delight