Evening star., 1898-10-25
FIGURING sQA VOTES
Managers in New Yost State Try to
Forecast Election.
H. ~
ARGUMENT FROM FORMER RESULTS
Reasons Why Light Registration
This Year Favdrs Roosevelt.
j. T. CARROLL'S ADMISSION
j. T. CARROLL'S ADMISSION
Special Corr ,sporGence of The Evening Star.
NrL-1Ar XC1p LCi Gr,..rl, "a. q

1
| NEW YORK, October a 1893.
| The figuring days of the campaign are
| beginning. With both candidates stumping
the state the managers of their headquar-
| ters in this city are quietly footing up what
| they expect, based upon the complete regis
| tration returns. There is one significant
concession regarding these returns, and it
! comes from John =. Carroll, Croker's per-
sonal representative and the manager Of
| the present local campaign. Carroll con-
cedes that Van Wycks vote will be cut
| down because of the light registration in
| the democratic wards of Greater New York.
He has cut down his claim of plurality of
| 100000 for Van Wyck to 5000, probably
| with the consent of Richard Croker. Mr..
Carroll. Senator Murphy and all the other
den ocratic managers. profess, however,
| that they are still confident.
In the consideration of registration re-
suits the careful observer remembers these
aXioms: A light registration always favors
the democrats, while heavy registration
draws out the Indifferent voters, and con-
tinuous results in elections show that the
vote that comes from increased registration
is cast the side of good government. The
dramatic finale of the campaign of the
democracy of Thomas Jefferson. LED by
Henry George. caused a loss in the regis
tered vote of at least I per cent in
crease OF = per cent IN tne average lOSS.
The registration this year. because OF the
vigilance of Superintendent McCullagh has
fallen off 10000 in round numbers, but 1t IS
expected that, notwithstanding this, the
total vote for governor will about equal
that for mayor. The excitement of the
canvass will induce % per cent of the reg
istered citizens to vote. and not 93 per cent,
as last year. So that conclusions as TO the
present canvass can safely be drawn on
last years mayoralty vote.
In view Of these Introductory conclusions
il is interesting to figure out just what
Tammany will have from the city to meet
the republican majority at High Bridge.
Assuming that the Tracy vote of 101 sG3
will go 20 Roosevelt, it must also be con-
ceded for the purposes of calculation that
the C}3.9 .99I votes cast for brother Robert
for mayor will go to brother Augustus for
governor. This leaves the Low vote of 1o1.-
40 aud the George vote of q .693 to he
counted for. This aSpsSentially an anti
Tammany vote. and it was cast against
Tammany WI en- that organization had
every hing at stake but for the purposes of
fair political arithmetic it1bnay be assumed
that one-fourth of the LHN vote and two
thirds of the George vot& will be cast for
Mr.. Crokar's candidate. Outside of the so
cialiStS nd prohibition vote, the total II m
Der of ballots countedCfor mayor in 1897
was 5l0531 and on the\fAIres of regis:ra-
ton a similar vote maT=sk looked for this
year. If to Gen. Tracy's tote of So. be
added 113. GOO, which is three-fourths OF the
vote for Seth Low, and 7.251 which is one
third of the vote for Henry George, We get
a total of 222,56a for the republican ate
ticket. This can be regarded as an i'm
probable estimate, and seems to err, T. at
all. in favor of the democratic side. / to
| the vote of 23:3. 997 for Mayor Van Wye: 0e
added 81. .G3!, representing one-fourth Of the
votes cast for Seth Low; 14.462. as two
thirds Of the vote for Henry George; S23,
the entire vote for Patrick Gleason and
613, the whole number credited to CIR 1ik-
shank candidate of the united democracy,
we have a total of 2S7.7S2 for the democrat
| ic state ticket in Greater New York ,'hls
would give Candidate Van Wyck a plurality
| OF 6o.2l3 in the great city south Of the
! Westchester county line. In giving Inn
| this figure he receives the benefit of .l3 7S5
votes which were cast against mis- brother
last year. essentially against the Croker
Mclaughlin democracy. Assuming this to
| be a reasonable proportion. it IS claimed
| that the republicans up the state ought to
| he able to wipe out the Tammany rluraIity
| in Greater New York.
Anent the Upstate Vote.
And then we come to the upstate vote
| and the question, Can Col. Roosevelt come
| down to the Westckester line with $1,000
| or more majority? The figures of past cleo
| tions prove that he can II the party or
ganizaton gets out the vote. He is conced-
| edly stronger than his party up the state.
| Added to this, it is asserted that many
| democrats will not vote for the Croker
| Murphy ticket. The Mckinley year cannot
| be taken as a fair one on which to figure,
but the following may: In 1883 Harrison
| had S42S9 above the Bronx. In 1889 Gill
bert for secretary of state had 52,41S.
| There was no state election in 1890. In
1891 ]. Sloat Fassett had 29249. In 1892
Harrison had G2,37. In 1898 Palmer for
| secretary Of state had ST, 749 above the
| Bronx. In 1894 Morton for governor came
l To hn nr1f tel,
| 1893 Palmar for secretary of state came
| to New York, Kings Richmond and Queens
with 142, 407 majority. In 1897 William j.
Wallace for chief justice of the court of
| appeals came to Greater New York with
| 1861 over Alton B. Parker The total re-
publican majorities for these eight years,
| as mentioned, is CTS, S,226, and divided by
| eight, to strike yearly balance, it gives
| S4,1S as the average republican majority
| above the city of Greater New York. This
| would handsomely elect Col. Roosevelt and
| no candidate for governor has ever been
| defeated who came to the Harlem with
| 10000.
Average Democratic Majority.
For the same period it is interesting to
| take the average of democratic majorities
| in the territory now known as Greater
| N7w York. In 1888 Cleveland had Il 900
In 1889 Rice had 2.935. In 1891 Flower
| had 77,1S6 In 1892 Cleveland had Ill, III.
In 1898 Meyer for secretary of state had
| 81, 265. In 1884 Hill was in a majority of
| l1,l33 in Greater New York against Gov.
| Morton. In 1895 Horatio c. King had for
| secretary Of state 53362 The year 1896 Is
not taken, nor can 1897 be put accurately
| in the table, as no candidate for judge of
| the court of appeals wsiss on the Citizens
| Union ticket. 1t would,,be fair, however, to
give the republican candidate for Judge of
| the court of appeals fhree-fourths Of the
| Low vote and one-third ofths George vote,
| while giving Alton B. 9PaTker the remain
| der, with Mayor VanosWYck's vote. This
New York of e5,213 ,tThis figures a total
majority in eight years II 512, 73S for the
democrats in Greater New York, as COM
pared with 67S,226 in theosame period for
| the republicans above the Bronx, or an av-
| erage majority each yaar far the demncrats