The Hawaiian gazette., 1898-09-06
CUBA AND SUGAR.

| Stocks In this place. VIII be the future
production of sugar In Cuba.
There is a disposition growing on
the Mainland to give Cuba the benefit
Of free sugar as a reciprocity measure.
At the present time 1t is improbable
to predict what relation Cuba will have
to our tariff. The probabilities, how
ever, are that, as the Federal Govern
ment will he forced to govern Cuba,
directly or indirectly, the policy OF
making Cuban sugars free will grad
ually prevail. II is the natural and
commercial way Of developing the re-
sources Of country whose future is
important to American interests. 1t
was most successfully tried with Ha-
wall. Why will 1t not succeed with
Cuba?
Aside from compromising the gen.
eral policy of the country towards
Cuba, 1t is difficult to forecast the
course OF events. Cuban affairs of all
kinds are in a transition condition.
Few men living, and certainly no per-
sons here have any clear, definite or
valuable knowledge OF those condi-
tions. The problem there is too COM
plicated to be clearly understood here.
The stories furnished by correspond
ents," the items sent by travellers do
not give the reliable data needed In
order to frame a sound business judg-
ment. The opinions OF men not ac-
customed to study economic and social
questions are worthless.
II seems to be admitted, however,
that the area and soil of Cuba, could
soon. under proper management, pro-
duce more sugar than is now consumed
In the United States. One thousand of
It's forty-three thousand square miles
could easily supply that amount. It
has already produced 100000 of tons
per annum. II should readily increase
1t to 100000 OF tons. There is now
over $5O,000,0OO of American capital
invested in the Cuban sugar planta-
tons. The mills are said to be intact.
A large and abundantly sufficient lab
oring class, skilled in the cultivation
OF cane, Is on the ground. The busi-
ness OF sugar making is already
learned. 1t is not a new industry
which requires the training of men;
or will cause great losses through ig-
norance. repeated blunders; nor is II. to
be rated as costly experiment" The
island Is only a stones throw" from
the Mainland. 1t will soon be overrun
with adventurous people with more or
less capital. The cause of bad govern
ment will be at least partially re-
moved. One of the most important
items in the account is the fact that
there is large population ready and
willing to cultivate cane, as a matter
of necessity.
On the other hand, no one can pre-
dict at present what the political fu-
ture will be. There may be such po-
litical unrest as will prevent the de-
velopment Of the sugar or any indus
try, during the next few years. This
may prevent the influx OF capital. The
Federal Government may not be able.
with its military forces, to preserve
order and restore confidence.
Those who like to believe that 1t will
require long period for Cuba to re-
cover from the desolation OF civil war
must remember that rich agricultural
country RECEIVERS from desolation and
devastation with surprising rapidity.
It is said that one year after the Ger
nan army over-ran Northern France,
here were surprisingly few evidences
If devastation in existence.
After our Civil War it was generally
believed that so extensive was the gen.
'ral wreck of the social fabric it
would be utterly impossible to produce
heap cotton for half century. But
he soil was not destroyed and men
iad to work in order to live. The
price Of cotton dropped SO low that
egions Of Northern men were ruined
financially by misunderstanding the
power of the soil.
Aside from the labor question, the
possibilities of Cuba in the future are
a most serious threat to the prices of
sugar In the United States. and there
fore to the permanent value Of sugar
stocks here. The transition period OF
hat Island involves so many unknown
factors that anyone who claims to und-
erstand them is surely q fool. Specu-
lation in sugar stocks for permanent
investment, under such conditions is
really Of the wild cat" order. Re-
sarding speculations for an immediate
rise we have nothing to say. Such
speculations are carried on In every
stock exchange without the least re-
gard to the intrinsic merits of the
stocks. 1t Is merely playing with fire. II
Va. a