New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1898-10-09

basins that would have accommodated anything
that sailed the sea few years ago.
The Mechanical Science section Of the British
Association was reminded Of the singular failure
of the prophecies made by experts In regard to
the steamship line that ran from Bristol to New
York sixty years ago. The pioneer vessel was
the Great Western, and before she even
launched the whole scheme was discredited byl
a. high authority on steam engines, DR. Lardner.
He told the British Association IN 1886 that the
idea Of ocean navigation on long voyages was an
abstract impossibty. Two years later ii was
shown to be a concrete possibility. Brunei, the
engineer and architect who designed the Great
Western had faith in his calculations OF the
speed coal capacity and fuel consumption of the
chin nevertheless and these were verified by the
event.
Some attempts have been made 10 prove that
Lartiner did not mean 10 pronounce the feat I'M
practicable from a mec hanical point OF view, but
10 suggest that the scheme was not promising
commercially. But Sir John Wolfe Barry is sat-
sfied that the latter explanation Is not true He
beheves that Lardner really intended 10 convey
the idea that power enough cOud not ~ oeVel-
oped Oh shipboard to overcome the resistances
encountered IL gong tDfouEH tic ""''i'
VNFrLFlLLED PREDICTIONS.
This is not the only case OF unfulhed predic-
tim az failure ir big enterprises. An aetrOn-
omer royal told the world that the proposed
Forth Bridge would probably succump 10 q
weaker gale than that which destroyed the Tay
Bridge But he lived 70 discover his mistake
On the other hand. The designers Of the Tower
| R,tdp ne Thames
five years ago. erred on the SIDE OF too great
caution. at needless expense. II has recently
been found out that wind gauges that measure
only "a small area give indications Of higher
pressures at any given moment than pre-
sentinr &. large area to the breeze. The former
sometimes give readings that are SIX times as
Erea; as the latter. Sir John mentions these
errors in order TO show the necessity for more
caution in laying down laws III mechanical en-
| terprses. The danger is that such work will he
! done without fully ascertaining data. Proceed
! ing 70 moraliZe, ne says:
We know the tendency there has been al ali
times 10 generaJize and 10 seek refuge III form.
ula. ana We cannot but know that II Is not al ar
end now. We ought to recognize and remember
how few physical questions had been exhaus.
| lively examined sixty years aPo, and may ] say
how comparatively few have even beer
fundamentally dealt with by experiment under
true scientific conditions? The Investigation o
physical facts under all the various condition.
which confront an engineer requires muc b care
intelligence time and last, not least not It'll
money. In urging the vital necessity of IDvestl
cations l am sure that ! shall not be under
! stood as decrying the value Of the exact analyst
Of mathematics, but We must be quite sure tina
the premises are right before we set tC work
reason upon them We should, then. exert a
our influence against rules or calculations base
merely Oh hypothesis and not be content wit
assumptions when facts can be ascertaiDed. eve
II euob ascertainment be labOrous and costly.