Evening star., 1898-05-21
LANDSMEN GUESS
Efforts to Penetrate the Designs of
the Spanish Admiral.
NAVAL GAME OF hide and SEEK
Tricks to Throw Americans Off the
Scent.
A D A S II FOR H VANA

Several days ago, in speaking of the mys-
| terious movements of the Spanish fleet.
Secretary Long said that the opinion of one
| well-informed man was as good as that of
another. This has come to be accepted.
| and the landsman speculates as freely and
with as much belief of success as the best
| posted naval official This speculation is
| always rife at the White House and is in
dulged In by all classes, from the most
prominent senator down.
hundred unofficial views were launched
at the White House today as to the Span
1sh and American fleets. A majority of
these are that the Spanish fleet has not re-
turned to the Cape Verde Islands and will
not do so until it makes a direct attempt
to reach Blanco with relief.
The Latest Trick.
The consensus of opinion is that the
Spanish announcement of the arrival of
the Spanish fleet at Santiago was made
with the dsep-laid idea that the American
government would send both Sampson and
Schley in pursuit. When these fleets had
started for Santiago and were well on their
way the Spaniards would drop far down
to the south of Cuba, beyond possible reach
OF discovery, until the Americans had pass
ed. when they would make quick dash
for Cienf'e gos, again eluding and mystify-
ing the Americans.
At Cienfuegos the probability of detection
would BE- minimized, as the nearest cable
station is Key West. The probability is
that Blanco has known of the presence of
Sampson and Schley at Key West, and
that he shrewdly anticipated their immedi-
ate departure for Santiago. He could have
wired Admiral Cervera mis- opinion and ad-
advised him to make roundabout das n for
Cienfuegos.
OF course there is speculative story that
Cervera may attempt to get to Havana it
self, but this would not be as likely as a
dash for Cienfuegos, unless made by a
northern route. Between Cienfuegos and
Havana is the Yucatan passage, which is
closely guarded. The Spanisrds could not
get to Havana oy this route without de-
lection. and would have to fight
Aft'r getting to Cienfuegos the Span!ards
could quickly unload and could be away
again, with chances in their favor of not
beirg quickly discovered.
Dash for Havana.
To escape the American squadron max
Ing for Santiago by the northern route and
to get TO Havana the undertaking would
be far more risi.y for Cervera He would
have to sail far north of Cuba until he
supposed the Americans had raced by, and
then make a dash for Havana, before
which he would encounter the big mon
tiers. if they are not at the Yucatan pass
age. The attempt to rush past the moni-
tors would be the most desperate in the
war. but it would be easier to fight them
and run into Havana harbor than to do
the same thing with fast moving squad
ron which could quickly close in Oh the
Spaniards.
Once in Havana harbor it is recognized
that the American squadron would have
uphill work against the Spanish fleet and
the forts.
Might Go to the Bahamas.
Some well informed people express the
belief that Cervera will next be heard
from in the neighbornood Of the Bahamas,
by which time he thinks both Sampson and
Schley will be near the eastern end of
Cuba. From the Bananas Ccrvera would
attempt the dash for Havana narbor. He
would not encounter serious opposition if
this theory is correct unul he ran against
the monitors off Havana Five or six days
would elapse for a game of TINS kind to
be played out to success or defeat.
CerVera put into Santiago simply to md
the lay of the land. 1t is not believed that
he landed supplies for Blanco at Santiago
1t would take weeks for these supplies to
reach Havana, if they ever got there
through the swarms of insurgents on the
eastern end of tie island.
1t is said that If Cervera has gone back
to Cape Verde it is for one Of two reasons.
The first would be to secure reinforce
ments before again showing himself in
southern waters. The second would be to
get ready to fall back to Spain so as to al
low some of the ships now there to leave
for the Philippines.
The belief is expressed today that If the
Cervera fleet goes back to Spain another
fleet will certainly be sent to the Philip
pines. This fleet, owing to delay here,
might stand a chance OF overcoming all
that has been dCne by Dewey.