The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1898-06-05
Washington Bureau st. Paul Globe, I
CoYcOyan Building.

Special to The st. Paul Globe.
WASHINGTON. June 4.-The remark
of Judge Hilborn, a member of the
house committee on naval affairs, that
the present war wtald last three years,
has naturally been much quoted.
Nor is he alone in predicting HOSTILE
ties Of cOrsidera BILE length. EX-PreSi-
dent Harrison has expressed rather
gloomy apprehensions IS to the length
of the struggle and the official opinion
Of Washington as to the possibilities is
evidenced by the two-year term for
which the volunteer army was called
into existence, although it may be dis
banded if the war is sooner over. The
administration simply decided not to
repeat the mistake of 1861 by calling
for three months" volunteers. On the
other hard, four men out of five, in
the army and navy and other official
circles, predict that peace will be re-
stored before Christ mas. At least they
argue that a truce will be reached by
that time although the exchange of
definitive treaty might be delayed in
diplomatic negotiation several months
longer.
The short-war theory people reach
their conclusion in this way. They look
upon the six weeks that have passed
as q yaTdStick of time and ask how
many units like it can be measured off
On the calendar without SPANS eX-
pressing a willingness to give in. Two
things, moreover, have contributed to
make the last six weeks less effective
than like period of time would gen.
orally be. The terrible state of unpre-
paredness in which the war found our
army, especially the first line of re-
serves, has made the principal occupa-
ton so far that of equipping and drill
ing the troops.
DISTURBING FACTOR
Then the oncoming of the rainy sea-
son in Cuba has been a disturbing ele-
ment Had the war begun in Novem-
Der the argument for forcing the fight
at once would have been immeasurably
stronger. But even with all due allow
ances of this kind the fact remains
that the last six weeks have known
tremendous results.
Dewey's victory has practically put
the Philippines into our hands. and
transports to aid and reinforce him are
nov on their way. 1t is taken for grant
ed here that it is only a question of
time before the Spanish fleet at Sam
tiago will lie crushed, Havana captured,
and the fall of Cuba assured.
Spain could not maintain herself in
Cuba after the loss of Havana. The
other points she might hold on the
coast would fall as necessarily with it
as did Fort Hudson after Vicksburg
surrendered to Grant.
The present plan of the administra-
ton seems to be to capture Santiago
and then to take San Juan, and thus
obtain possession of Porto Rico The
capture of Santiago, however, will have
no direct effect on the result of the
war, because it is now cut off from
fNfNrp loot ion wit o. no
reason for taking it before attempting
the capture of Havana is the presence
at Santiago of Cervera's fleet Neither
would the seizure of Porto Rico have
a direct effect on the result of the war
except that it would tend to weaken
the Spanish cause, physically and NOR
ally.
Havana is the central point of the
campaign, and when it is taken Cuba
will be ours, just as the final occupa-
ton of Manila will give US the control
Of the Philippine islands.
1t was commonly predicted before
hostilities began that we should have
Bull Run, and that some large reverse
would be necessary to awaken the
United States to the real seriousness of
the contest. But none such has come
Not so much real resistance has yet
been met as our soldiers found in the
Mexican war, when Scott, with his vic
torious army. had to go into camp and
await the arrival of reinforcements.
Thus far everything has gone our way,
so far as the reports have become pub
lie, and the end of the war apparently
depends only on the speed with which
the hammering power of the United
States can henceforth be applied.
INEVITABLE END.
Reports from the other side equally
bear out the theory that the end is
comparatively near. Broad riots are on
the eve of breaking out in the Spanish
cities, and great poverty and distress
everywhere prevail The war tax is
sapping the last resources of the nation.
The inevitable end must be just as ap-
parent to her statesmen now as three
months hence, and every days delay
in accepting peace makes all the hard
er the burden of recuperation. 1t seems,
then, that there is little reason to be-
lieve that the war can last long.
But this is only one side of the story.
The other side, that referred to in the
opening paragraph, may we'll be stated
in the. words of prominent war de-
partment official, who declines to allow
the use of his name:
81 believe that the war is more liable
to last three years than one. OF course,