The Worcester spy. [volume] (Worcester, Mass.) 1898-1904, 1898-12-19
To New York
Evening Post.
HUGE EXPORTS
In Spite Of Protection Laws
and "Follies.7

X
Trade Riddle" The New York Evening
Post says editorially:
We do not need to call our readers
attention to the exceptional features of
the country's foreign trade at the pres
ent time. The steady accumulation of
the apparent merchandise export bal
ance" in favor the United States, the
continued increase in the shipments of
other than agricultural products, and
the growth Of our total monthly ex-
ports to figures quite unapproached in
our previous history-with these phe-
nomena all intelligent readers of the
news are already familiar.
/ They are no doubt aware, also, of
exactly the part played in these returns
by the worlds peculiar harvest situa-
ton during the last three years. Every
one understood why Europe had to
buy our grain at our own prices during
/ 1896 and 1897. But with the summer of
1893, the famine period" ended, Eur
ope produced fairly abundant harvests
and the American grain-fields yielded
| probably the largest wheat crop in his
tory. This naturally forced down the
price of the commodity considerably.
Meantime Europe's storehouse supply
of wheat had been drawn down very
low; even in September of this year
1t was barely three-fourths as large as
/ 1t was twelve months before, and less
! than half the total of September, 1896.
Moreover, the fall in prices enlarged
the ordinary consuming demand
| Therefore, the foreign buying of wheat
and other breadstuffs this season was
equal to or larger than the purchases or
% 80
| the trades experience has been SINH
lar, and therefore it happens, in the
/ November trade statement, for in
stance that even in values or agriclt-
ural exports have slightly exceeded
those for the same month in either 1897
or 1896
All this part of the trade movement
is neither mysterious in itself nor I'M
familiar in our commercial history.
But further study of the trade re-
turns discloses some phenomena both
novel and in their results perpleXing.
One is the continued increase in other
than agricultural exports, which in
| November alone were larger by nearly
/ S10O00,000, or 80 per cent, than they
were in November, 1897. This increase
has been almost constant; the similar
exports for the II completed months Of
| the year are ISL 600 900 greater than in
| the same months Of 1897.
! 1t is sufficiently well understood that
| this extraordinary rise in our manu-
| featured exports (nearly one-half of
the increase is in products of the iron
trade) must be ascribed to the cheap
ening of American processes of manu-
| factuTe, and our consequent competition
on equal terms with the outside world
| But the corollary to this proposition
was not always recognized; that if our
manufacturers could undersell Europe
in European markets, they could GER
tainly provide out of their own produc-
ton for American requirements. This
| is the reason for the very extraordinary
exhibit in the current trade returns,
| showing not only that in the II months
as whole, imports Of foreign mer-
chandise have decreased Sill, 245, 900
! from 1897, but that in this very month
of November the import trade was
smaller than in the same month a year
ago, when Dingley, with his accustomed
Volubility, was explaining why imports
were so low and why they were certain
to increase.
We shall not pause for the rather OBJ
Vious comment on the bearing of these
comparisons on the protective tariff
theory. The president has discreetly
dropped the subject in his annual mes
| sage and his silence is sufficiently elo-
quent. But very different problem
this contracting import movement on
our foreign trade relations. The mere
fact Of an excess of exports over inn
ports, amounting in II months to
S537 100000, or very nearly double that
of year ago, is startling. Heavy Tex
port balances" have been seen before
none so enormous as that of 1898 but
still Of portentous volume for such
years as 1880 and 1892 In all these
former years, however, the true ball
ance Of International trade has been
restored, largely through equally heavy
increase in merchandise shipments from
Europe to the United States. There
were protective tariffs in those days,
and of the oldfashioned kind; yet our
annual import of foreign merchandise
increased no less than 1920, 900, 900 after
the export balance" in the European
famine of 1879 and $77, 100000 after the
similar episode of 1891 and 1892 The
heavy export trade of 1897 and 1898, in
stead of being followed by similar in
crease in our imports, is accompanied,
as we have seen, by a simultaneous fall
in the volume of importations to the
lowest figure in nearly 20 years. This
is distinctly a novel incident in our
commercial history; it may be doubted,
indeed, whether such a phenomenon,
on such a scale, has ever been witnessed
in the history of any nation.
In large measure this peculiar stu
alton is accidental and, therefore tenn
porary. 1t is not only possible, but prac-
tically certain. that agricultural pro-
duction elsewhere than in America will
increase next year sufficiently to pre-
vent q very long continuance of the
present exceptional volume of staple
e. ports. But the increasing export of
manufactured goods and the contract
ed import trade are not subject to ac-
cidents of seasons. Neither movement
would be affected. for instance. bv an
American harvest failure, unless to en-
phssize present tendencies. Nothing,
apparently would radically alter the
present situation in these regards ex-
cept speculative marking-up of COM
nercial prices, similar to that of 1882
or 1895. Such movement would have
prompt enough results, both in reduc-
,ng manufactured exports and in en-
larging imports. But it must be sal
that few indications of such a com
mercial episode are visible now. I'm
less the speculation for the rise now
occurring in securities overflows into
wheat, cotton, iron and other staple
markets, it is hard to see what is to
shake the American trade situation.
But the result, meantime, on our
trade relations with the outside world,
is most extraordinary. Since the COM
petition Of domestic manufacturers is
preventing Europe from settling it's
trade obligations through increased
s9les Of merchandise, there are left
only three other familiar means Of re-
adjustment: Sales of securities. gold re-
mittances, or the actual borrowing of
capital by foreign bankers in our mar
kets. American securities have been
sold by Europe in enormous quantities,
and the rise in prices on the American
stock exchanges has facilitated the on
GRAFTON. But this means of settlement |
cannot last indefinitely. Even if Mr.. |
Heidelbachs high estimate Of 1896. !