The age-herald. [volume] (Birmingham, Ala.) 1897-1902, 1898-11-05
NEILL'S ESTIMATE.
His Final Figures Are / l 100000 Bales
of Cotton for This Year.

From the New York Commercial
New Orleans, November 1.-The final es-
innate of the cotton crop for the year has
lust been made by Henry Harmon Neiil'
the cotton expert. The report in full is as
follows:
1.-THE crop season opened with large
planting and adequate rainfall In April, ioi-
lowed by a moderately dry and warm May
and warm shOwery June, so that conditions
up to the 1st of July were almost perfect
In July and August and first half OF sep
TENDER we had too much rain, which caused
too rapid growth of stalk and leaves ana
some rotting of lower bolls, but did not pre-
vent very heavy fruitage In most OF the
states The last half of September and first
half of October gave ideal weather for de-
velopment and maturity OF fruit and to
great extent corrected the previous sappy
condition of the plant. The temperature
was perfect and warmer for that period
than any year in our records, the minimum
temperature of the whole cotton belt re-
manning about 70 degrees. The second hair
of October, while cooler, has 50 tar given
no killing frost. Indeed, the frosts which
have occurred are admitted to have been
beneficial in checking the growth, killing
the foliage and permitting the sun to reach
the bols, thus Fastening maturity and
opening, and 1t Is generally reported that
the crop is so far advanced that the frost
her .. fter would be of no material disad-
vantage.
1.-THE reports, therefore. have taken on
complete change, and 1t is generally admit
ted that the crop is recovering from the
previous damage, and 1t is now quite COM
mon to hear of crops equal to or even great
er than those of last year in several of
the states. In Texas, of course, there has
never been any doubt of an enormous crop.
LAS a result of all these favorable condi-
lions the crop now promises so great
result for actual growth that 1t is very
doubtful IL the trade will be able to absorb
the whole of it, besides the 100000 bales
which Mr. Hester estimates to have been
unmarketed of last crop, SO that we shall
probably never know the actual growth of
this year.
at may therefore be more practical 10
forecast the commercial crop, leaving the
question of actual growth for future dis
cussion. The commercial crop of last year
was II 100000 bales, leaving 100000 unmar-
keted. My present opinion is that the COM
mercial crop of this year will be II, 100000
bales minimum say 3,S0OOO from Texas and
Indian Territory and 100000 outside OF
Texas
II think that the great prosperity and
financial strength of the Texas farmers
will enable them to hold back an unusual
proportion of their crops. SO that while the
growth In Texas and Indian Territory will
reach 100000, and many estimate 1t at
much more, 3,S00,O00 will be delivered.
"Outside of Texas the crop does not COM
pare go favoraby with last year. and while
L MINK the STOWtH OI tuOSc StdlcS Will NC
100000 or more, against $685., 900 last year,
1 do not think that more than 100000 will
be delivered, against S,125,00O delivered last
year. This, with 1000, 900 for Texas, would
make the total growth of II 900, 900 bales.
IF the consumption of this year should
he 100000, against 100000 last year, as
estimated by Mr.. Ellison, and should the
crop delivered be IL 900 bales. it is mani
fest that there will be 100000 bales to add
to the heavy stocks, visible and invisible,
hall IN SaDtep1her 1 1898 and the
grown and not marketed, beyond the COM
mercial crop of 100000 would not have
much interest for us.
During the past week we have had three
cold nights, with the temperature down to
80 in several cotton growing districts, but
the weather being perfectly dry, no harm
of consequence has resulted, but, instead,
rather benefit"