The Indianapolis journal. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1867-1904, 1897-08-29
STATISTICS OF CROPS
GRADUAL EVOLUTION OF A RA.
TIONAL BASIS OF SPECULATION.
stimulus to- tho Science in This Conn
try-Discrediting of the Govern
ments Observation-Disclosures
New York Evening Post


tions-being in Germany carried to the
height of a science and pervading nearly
all their problems as an element in their
solution-has been chiefly neglected in this
country, although of late years a begin
ming has been made. 1t would not be sur
prising If the principal advance in the SCH
ence in this country should be made
through the perceived value of scientifically
gathered and prepared statistics to money
making. especially in the field of specula-
ton. Abroad it is the government which has =
been the promoter of statistics: in the
United States it has been less so and the
government results have been less perfect.
because of the complication of civil service
with politics.
Ever since speculation became rife in this
country men have been seeking some means
of finding out how to act They have
guessed at what was going to happen in
the market, they have formed theories
more or less fanciful, they have surren-
dered themselves to the guidance of super
stition or blind chance, they have from
time to time devised infalible systems,
but disaster in the application has at last
Fed them to the only rational basis of spec
ulation, namely, the most thorough knowl-
edge possible of the actual condition of the
property the crop upon which they pro-
pose to hazard their money. In cereal
speculation this perception has, within the
last few years. brought about a striking
development in the rise of cultivated statis-
ticians who have made a speciality of as
certaining and publishing for the bene-
fit of their subscribers reports of crop
acreage, production and condition, which
have proved to be singularly accurate and
have been the basis of somea of the most
gigantic speculative successes of recent
years. Up to this time something had
been done in this direction, but ii had been
tentative and imperfect and far from hav-
ing the scientific method which was neces-
sary to insure trustworthy results One OF
the most prominent precursors of the pres
ent leading crop statistcians was S. K.
thornton Prime, who, a few years ago,
had a great vogue a correct delineator
of agricultural conditions and indicator OF
the rise or fall of the market. Mr. Primes
speciality was wheat and In that he be-
came a commanding authority. his state
mentS and conclusions being in most cases
accepted with .unquestioning confidence by
investors and spectators. Gradually, how
ever, his prestige declined. His reputation,
though in some degree deserved, not
grounded upon the solid foundation which
the thoroughly scientific statistician re-
quires. At any rate such seems TO have
been the conclusion at which those inter-
ested arrived, for the attachment of most
of them was transferred to newer lights in
paling of Intellectual fires" before lumin-
aries of greater size and brilliancy.
CROP STATISTICIANs.
Three or four years ago two men-B. w.
Snow and E. M. Thoman--who had been
employed in the division Of statistics of the
Department of Agriculture at Washington,
having learned all that the government had
to teach them in the way of gathering crop
reports and estimating conditions and yield,
and having perceived that the government
was handicapped by the burden Of politics
which lay on all government endeavor and
that much better results were attainable II
the same aims were prosecuted as private
enterprise, went to Chicago, and there sep
arately ests bished themselves as crop
statsticianS They utilized what they had
learned at Washington, and they added
what they saw was lacking to the govern
ment work They opened large offices, and
secured correspondents at every essential
point throughout the country-not as many
as the government had, but better Sc
lected and more compact and better organ
lied corps. They adopted classihcatons ana
a method only known fully 20 themselves,
for secrecy is one of the accomplishments
of their business Judged by the results. the
method is certainly scientific and sound
Their rise in reputation was rapid. The
comparatively brief period during which
they have been putting out their reports
has sufficed 10 place them in the front rank
in their line. They speedily gained the pa
tronage of some of the richest and heaviest
d alers and spectators in the country, and
their reports are to-day regarded as little
less than infallible.
The most significant feature OF the pusl-
ness is that each of the statisticians labors
and grows rich (such is the report, at all
events) with an exceedingly limited number
OF subscribers. Their results are not for the
herd. When they are given to the public
they practically discounted for all pur-
poses of speculation. because they have al
ready for some time been in the hands OF
the favored few who can afford to pay for
them. In other words, the enormous ex-
pense the statisticians incur in acquiring
the vast amount of informa ton necessary
from an army of correspondents, and in
maintaining a large office force TO deal
by few men who find 1t profitable TO bear
it and to add large sums for the compensa-
ton of the scientists. Just how limited the
number of subscribers is, is not known TO
any except the statisticians themselves,
and, perhaps, their most confidential en-
ployes. 1t is not known to the subscribers,
nor docs any one of them know who the
other subscribers are. II is however,
known, or at least thoroughly believed, that
the number is very small. for upon that
fact depends the value of the reports to
SPECTATORS. If everybody, or any great
number had them, so many would have an
equal knowledge that all special advantage
would be gone.
HIGH-PRICED FIGURES.
The subscribers, therefore, are held q
"close corporation" and the reports COM
mand a high figure. 1t is as If they were
rare copies of some highly-prized first edi-
ton. Not an exchange in the country re-
ceives them After the few have seen and
acted then they are published and II any
gleanings are to be had. very good, you
are welcome" say Messrs. Snow and Tho
man and their subscribers One OF the
statisticans' performances is to parallel the
government reports-that is, knowing the
methods employed by the government they
use the same and produce In advance or
the government reports almost duplicates
of them These are also for their subscrio-
ers and enable them to anticipate those
councillors who have faith in the govern
ment reports or are unable to command the
sDecial service Of the experts. The more
thorough test to which the government re-
ports have been subjected since such rivals
have risen has red to the d1scovery-or the
belief-that the government is often exceed
inglv erroneous IN its estimates, and, in
consequence, it's publications on the crops
have been greatly discredited within the
last few years They have been found to
differ both rs to acreage and crop produc-
tIon not only with the statisticians and the
trade papers, but with the several State re-
ports, and the public has preferred 10 be-
eVe that THE government is wrong. The
discrepancy has amounted to as much as
rs 900 900 bushels, and from three to nve
million acres, on the wheat crop alone. A
sDecific instance is the difference between
the governments estimate and that OF the
Iowa State officials In relation 20 the wheat
sown in that State. The officials say that
to winter wheat has been sown l94466 acres
and to spring wheat 1916. S37. The govern
ment's figures, on the total, are less than
1000 or less than two-thirds or the
amount named by the officials The public
chooses to believe the State officials. 1t
may be curious but ii Is true, that lnVes-
tors and spectators prefer to take as ac-
curate most any report rather thah the
Whfrs Messrs. Snow and Thoman, by COM
mon consent, stand AT the head OF their
class there are others whose authority