New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1897-04-28

ports, appear from the flnal treasury ieP''' 80
eight months OF the fiscal year to have been 49,
125S02 bushels, and the preliminary return ior
March shows exports Of S.150,307 bushels. max
Ing in nine months 122,2i6.109 bushels against
90 G4S.310 in the same months of the previous
yoar The weekIv returns also show that 4,92I,-
147 bushels flour included. were exported IN
tv enty-four DAVIS of April from Atlantic ports.
and about 1441 3O1 bushels from Pacific ports.
Thus we have 12S $50 500 bushels exported to the
erd of last week which. added to the estimated
home consumption makes 5l9411 ,229 bushels
This is more than the crop according 10 MI
Thonan's or the Government, estimate plus
the visible supply April L. 1S'w, with haif as
much more for invisible stocks at that date
Hence on either of these estimates there Is not
enough wheat left in the country to supply the
ordinary consumption without any for export
AS everybody knows this cannot be true. the
estimates must be discarded worthless or
some evidence must be found to support theory
of diminished consumption. The Orange judd
estimate was larger, but even that with the visi-
BILE supply. and half much more July last
year. would leave only %, 600 bushels for ex-
port in over two months, and for visible and in
, visible stocks July ], and this again would not
be credited by any who observe the continued
Western receipts and the course of the markets.
Once more, then. as has happened in almost
every year for the last five the current estimates
of production must be discarded. or evidence
must be found of decreased consumption of
wheat Months ago my own estimate of more
tEan 00.O00.O00 bushels was accompanied with
the prediction that the exports and the state Of
the markets before July / would show that It
nearer right than others then current. Certain
ly nothing has occurred as yet to refute that
I u
per week could still be spared for export until
July without reducing the visible and invisible
stock as low as they repeatedly have been in
previous years.
The difficulty In the whole business Is that no
information worth considering exists as to the
/ acreage sown in wheat except the Government
estimate. which made the acreage 80 GIG 600 fin
June. 1891. raised it in December to 39,916,000
one way of accounting for an unprecedented
! crop. and also made the yield per acre about two
bushels greater than it previously had been. 1t
Is extremely probable that the acreage then was
something like 2,SOO,000 larger than the official
allowance. and the yield per about
bushel less. But from that time the error
must have been prolonged each year by the sys-
, TEN of reporting only the proportion of acreage
sown TO that harvested the previous year. and
moreover there has also been a systematic effort
on the part Of many correspondents to deceive
and TO represent the acreage too low in the hope
Of benefitng farmers. The official report made
the acreage last year only 81 61S 6i6. or 53OOOO0
less than was reported in 1891, and probably as
! much az 100000 less than was actually har-
vested that year. 1t is probable that the acre
age actually harvested last year was more
nearly 4O.0O0.OOO. which at the reported acreage
yield would account for a crop of about 100000
900 bushels
The new Secretary OF Agriculture is not the
sort Of man to tolerate reports that are wholly
unreliable. any longer than may be necessary
to find means Of correcting them. But that is
task which requires some Time and is greatly
embarrassed by the conditions under which the
service is conducted The effort will meet with
great opposition, too. If the Government reports
tend to check the chronic effort to represent the
acreage and crop much smaller than they are
But it has never been for the real benefit OF the
farmer to render the official records so unre-
liable that the trade relies wholly upon unofficial
estimates. always liable to reflect speculative
influences The best thing possible for the
farmer is to know beyond question whether the
acreage sown threatens a yield exceeding the
worlds probable demand. so that in the States
which SOW latest the tendency toward ruinous
excess may be in some measure corrected
New-York. April q. 1897. W NJ c.