Crawford avalanche. (Grayling, Mich.) 1879-19??, 1897-09-30
STATISTICS or CROPS.
THE EVOLUTION or A RATIONAL BA.
Sis OF INFORMATION.

/ SumutuS 10 the science IN ] MS SouhtTy''
Work and Reputation Of Two Experts.
Disorediting Of the Governments Re
| ports--Advantage Gained by Few
l Spectators.
The development of statistics, which
In modern times has become one OF the
marked characteristics Of intellectual
nations-being in germany carried to
the height of science and pervading
nearly all their problems" as an ele-
ment In their solution-has been chief
ly neglected In this country, although
of late years a beginning has, been
made. 1t would not be surprising II
the principal advance in the science
In this country should be made
through the perceived value of scien-
tifically gathered and prepared statis-
tics to money making, especially in the
field OF speculation. Abroad it is the
Government which has been the pro-
moter of statistics; in the United
States it has been less SO, and the
| Government results have been less
! perfect, because OF the complication of
| civil service with politics.
| Three or four years eco two men
/ B. w. Snow and e. M. Thoman-wno
| had been employed in the division Of
| statistics Of the Department of Agri-
culture at Washington, having learned
! all that the Government had to teach
| them in the way of gathering crop re-
| ports and estimating conditions and
| yield, and having perceived that the
Government was handicapped by the
burden of politics which lay on all
Government endeavor, and that much
better results were attainable if the
same aims were prosecuted as a pri-
vate enterprise, went to Chicago, and
there separately established them
selves as crop statisticians. They uti-
lized what they lad learned at Wash
ington, and they added what they saw
was lacking to the Government work.
They opened large offices, and secured
correspondents at every essential point
throughout the country-not as many
as the Government had, but better
selected and more compact and better
organized corps. They adopted CLASH
fcations and method only known
FULLY to themselves, for secrecy is one
o. the accomplishments of their bust
ness. Judged by the results, the meth
Cd is certainly scientific and sound.
Their rise in reputation was rapid. The
comparatively brief period during
which they have been putting out their
reports has sufIiced to place them in
the front rank in their line. They
speedily gained the patronage of some
spectators in the country, and their
reports are to-day regarded as little
less than infallible.
The most significant feature of the
business is that each of the statis-'
ticians labors and grows rich (such is
the report, at all events) with an ex-
ceedingly limited number of subscrib-
ers. In other words, the enormous ex-
pense the statisticians incur in acquir-
ing the vast amount of information
necessary from an army of correspond
ents, and in maintaining large office
force to deal with this mass of COM
munications, is borne by few men.
who find it profitable to bear it and
to add large sums for the compensation
of the scientists. Just how limited the
number of subscribers is is not known
to any except the statisticians them
selves, and, perhaps, their most con-
fidential employees. 1t is not known
to the subscribers, nor does any one
OF them know who the other subscrib
ers are. 1t is, however, known, or at
least thoroughly believed, that the
number is very small, for upon that
fact depends the value of the reports to
spectators. If everybody, or any
great number, had them, so many
would have an equal knowledge that
all special advantage would be gone.
The subscribers, therefore, are held a
"cose corporation" and the reports
command high figure. Not an ex-
change in the country receives them.
After the few have seen and acted
then they are published, and il any
gleanings are to be had, Every good,
you are welcome" say Messrs. Snow
and Thoman and their subscribers.
One of the statisticians' performances
is to parallel the Government reports
that is, knowing the methods en-
ployed by the Government, they use
the same, and produce in advance OF
the Government reports almost dupli- |
Gates of them. These are also for their
subscribers, and enable them to antici- |
pate those competitors who have faith |
in the Government reports, or are un-
able to command the special service of |
the experts. The more thorough ties. |
to which the Government reports have |
been subjected since such rivals have |
risen has led to the discovery-or the |
belief-that Government Is often ex
ccedingly erroneous in it's estimates, |
and in consequence its publications on
the crops have been greatly discred-
tied within the last few years. They |
have been found to differ both as TO
acreage and crop production, not only |
with the statisticians and the trade
papers, but witch the several State re-
ports, and the public has preferred to
believe that the Government is wrong. |
The discrepancy has amounted to as
much as 100000 bushels and from
3 ,OOO, 900 to 100000 million acres, on
the wheat crop alone. 1t may be curl
Gus. but 1t is true, that investors and
spectators prefer to take as accurate
almost any report rather than the
Government's.-New York Post.