The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1897-01-18
YEAR OPENS WELh
MARKED IMPROVEMENT MORE
AND MORE NOTICEABLE IN
WALL STREET.
MERCHANTS MORE HOPEFUL,
BEGIN TO REALIZE THAT RESTO-
RATION OF GOOD TIMES MUST
BE GRADUAL.
MUCH CREDIT TO THE TREATY.
Henry CIews Optimistic Regarding
an Early Return of Pros
perity.
Special to the Globe.

Special to the Globe.
NEW YORK, Jan. lin his weekly
report of financial conditions, Henry
Clews says:
In Wall street the year 1897 opens with a
marked Improvement of tone Among the
banks, in the investment market, in spec
ulative operations and in the various branches
Of credit the recovery OF confidence is very
conspicuous The change is no artificial
product; it has come about through a grad
ual natural process, and is the result OF a
growing conviction that a reaction has set
in from the various adverse conditions and
moods which, for the least three years have
so completely shaken the foundations of pub
lie confidence: Not that the future is re
garded as entirely exempt from some imQor-
tant uncertainties, for it is conceded that
adjustments remain to be accomplished which
are needful to establishing complete sense
of public security.
One of the main things tending to this
current recovery is the evidence on every
side of a more conservative, intelligent and
rational sentiment Our three years OF Sc
we're trial has served an invaluable edu-
cation. It has exposed certain radical but
unsupported dangers in our currency sys-
TEN and in our financial machinery. The
first effect of those revelations was to pro-
duee a paralyZing alarm, under which capital
and industry became utterly StagnaLed Inc
exposure of our perils, however, stimulated in
vestigat;On, and investigation has enabled
us TO understand our complication of dis
eases, TO measure Cn6lr dangers, ana TO put
a reasonable estimate upon the remedies pro-
posed for their removal We have thus
come to understand our case and are able
to see the way out of it; which first carries
us out OF the paralyZing stage of fright, and
then establishes more than a hope that the
national judgment will provide a way of es-
cape from our industrial and financial de-
engagements. Having thus passed beyond the
stage of confused misconceptions into that of
an Intelligent comprehension of the situa-
ton, the battle with our adverse conditions
Is virtually won. Among active men of af-
talrS there is now general consensus of op:n-
Ion as to what is needful to put our varied
interests upon a sound and safe basis; and
1t is this matured understanding of the situa-
ton and its wants, together with the public
urgency for applying prompt remedies that
largely accounts for the great improvement
OF tone which is now appearing in Wall
street.
At the same time this recovery is much
encouraged by the abatement of the late po-
fticsl eX item eDtS. The silNe r question is now
scarcely mentioned in congress or out. The
lingo sentiment is virtually silent. There
is no longer any impationce to force ourselves
pTematurely between Spain and the Cubans
and the probabilities suggest the hope of
an early settlement Of that struggle. In brief
the sober judgment of TIE people has asserted
its asceDdancy over the wave of passion
which has spread over politics, and the dan
ger from false and precipate policies has
subsidized. Above all, the arbitration treaty
has diffused throughout the nation the great
hope of founding a lasting friendship with
regard as possibly threatening our interna-
tonal peace: It is not conceivable that the
senate can fail to ratify this greatest compact
that has ever been established among nations;
and when the treaty has been ratified its
beneficial effects will appear in many ways
not now thought of, and which will tend
to elevate the national sentiment and to dis
pei political msgivings which have more than
little conduced to the late prevailing dis
trust. Thus in politics. both domestic ard in
ternauonal we seem to be passing from an
ehuihuon OF passion and prejudice to a c3n-
diton OF calmer and more responsible poS
lcies, the more intelligent classes are gaining
the ascendancy in public opinion, and the
common sense of the people is coming to
the rescue of the nation. Nothing could
more than this contribute 70 the complete
restoration of prosperity; for nothing is as
directly responsible for the late alarm as the
wild vagaries in our politics.
The movements which are thus affecting
Wall street are producing similar effects in
business circles at large. Manufacturers
and merchants perceive that a new spirit has
come over the markets and that the tend
enc;es on all sides are more hopeful They
have not entirely got over the disappoint-
ment of the late unreasonable expectation that
the election would raise a great squirt of
commercial activity at the very time of the
year when business is always at its lowest
ebb; but it is generally conceded that the
elements of solid revival are already in
slght and that we are now in the begin
nings of an era of great prosperity. 1t may
be that, owing to the extreme spirit of con-
servatism into which men of business have
been schoOled by recent experience. we shall
witness no very striking boom during the
first half of the year; there can be no rea-
sonable doubt however, that the fall trade
will leave little to be desired in the way
Of prosperity. 1t is not to be overlooked that
the export business, especially in connec-
ton with manufactured goods is rapidly
assuming very large dimensions, and yet
TINS important factor attracts little attention
from those who are accustomed to consult
he commercial barometer. At the same time
We are in the midst of a remarkable revival
IN the shipments of the ordinary staple ar
ticles of export. During the last twelve
months GS96) the exports of cotton. bread
stuhS, mineral oils and animals and animal
PPo6 quo reached the extraordinary value of
.634,OOO 600, against 522 900, 600 in 1885, This
not only means a condition of the foreign ex-
changes extraordinarily in our favor: it
equally means valuable relief to our farm
ing and planting populations, which must
nave It's erect upon the country trade of the
season now opening.
The foreign exchange market continues
steady and affords no symptom of the exnorta-
ton Of gold which London and Paris have
been 50 confidently telling US must appear
soon after the opening of this year. We
nave nave already mentioned the fact in these ad-
wees that, at the end of last year, about
thlrty-hve millions in bills of exchange was
AelQ mere as temporary investment in Mace
= OF forwarding the bills to Europe in the usual
course. These obligations have now begun
10 taA due. Were the collections remitted
IN the ordinary course, we should now be i'm
porting considerable amounts of gold; the for
elgn bankers, however, are glad 10 issue other
bills against these maturists, so that this
large foreign Indebtedness to New York is
belng to considerable extent renewed ais III
becomes payable. This operation suits the
large holders of idle balances here and heIps
to sustain the local rate of interest: and II
still better suits the convenience of the for
eign centers, which are afflicted by a compara-
tive dearth of gold. This situation strenpthans
the probability that little gold will he semi
hence to Europe during the first half of the
current year. W
The foregoing the principal factors now
affecting Wall street interests. On the stock
exchange, they are construed as strongly faV
oring a steady improvement in the yaiua ~
securities, and consequently bonds and
stocks are persftently advancing It may NOT
be that these conditions will at once deveIor
into any extreme speculative activity: for
everywhere the spirit of business is conserva
tive but steady rise in Prices SEEM in
eyitable; and. in my judgment purchases al
present prices will ultimately show handsome
profits.
HEARS ACTIVE IN WHEAT.