The Van Buren press. [volume] (Van Buren, Ark.) 1859-1914, 1897-07-31
a BIRTH-RATE SCARE.
No Danger OF Pacific or New En- '""1
states Being Depopuiateu'

M Danger OF pacfhc or new b"S
states Being Depopuiated'
From time to time elaborate state
ments of birth-rate statistics appear.
THE most recent batch of these figures
shows that while the birth rate III
E,.anee has fallen off from 80 per l,ooo
of population at the beginning I'll inc
century to 20 per 1000 at the present
time. there has been even greater
decline in some of the states OF inc
United States, and particularly III New
ENGLAND. The latest compilation mace
of birth-rate figures shows the rate
in Nevada to be 1870 per 1,oOo, so tiat
its popuIation would die out completely
in less than 100 years. Maine follows
with a birth rate of 1899 per l'ooo'
which gives its population about cen
tury longer to exist. New HaInpsilie
is third, with IS per 1000; vermont
fourth, with IS, and California ii'h'
with 10 per 1000, or nearly II per cent.
less than the rate in France. rms TACT
the alarmist statistician finds to be
most striking, in view of the favorable
climate, ample area and diversity OF
interests in the state. Following oall-
fornia is Connecticut, which has Dlrth
rate of 21.3 per 1000. Massachusetts
has 2f.5. Rhode Island has 22.5, some
what higher rate than the French, but
still insufficient to prevent the eXtlnc-
ton of the population within two or
three centuries Wyoming. with Its
els, comes between Massachusetts, and
Rhode Island, while Oregon has rate
of 22.5. The conclusion drawn from
these statistics is that within period
varying from GO to 200 years, accord
ing to circumstances, the present pop
ulation of New England and the Pacific
coast will be replaced. All this is OF
course very alarming-if true.
But it isn't true, and the total eX-
tinction of the Gaelic race or the Anglo
Saxon race in any given locality is not
to be expected or looked for, the statls=
ticians to the contrary notwithstand-
ing, and for a very plain and simple rea-
son. A low birth rate is not mark of
deeadence or degeneracy anywhere; it
is a mark of the disparity between the
sexes in the population of any state
or country. Statisticians make usually
the mistake of estimating the growth
of population not by the actual number
of births, but by the relation which
the number of these births bear to the
total population. 1t is from this that
they get their elusive birth rate" and
a little examination of the facts on
which their last alarming bulletin is
based will show this conelusiyely. In
Nevada. by the last federal census,
the number of males in the state WAS
10000; the number of females was 16,-
900. There were nearly twice as many
males as females. but the statisticians.
taking no regard of this disparity,
based their estimates on the number of
births TO the total population, and thus
arrived at the conclusion that the popu-
lation of this state. as of other states on
the Pacific, was dying out. In Oregon.
by the last census taken by federal au-
thority, there were 10000 males and
10000 females, and i'm this state for
the same reason as in Nevada the birth
rate appears to be small. California is
another state which the statisticians
aver will at the present rate soon be-
come depopulated Theoretcally, so
to speak, it may; actually the popula-
tion has increased from 1000 in 1860
to 100000 in 1870, $4,000 in 1880,
AID 100000 in 1890 - quite n
rapid increase for state which
according to the statisticians, is becom-
ing depopulated. The reason of their
error is the same in California as in
Oregon and Nevada. BY the last census
the number of male residents of that
state was 100000 and of female resi-
dents 100000. There is n considerable
most exclusively male-and the effect
of this disparity between the sexes is
TO make il appear that the birth rate is
low, where in fact, it is so much larger
than the death rate that the population
is increasing all the time.
For a similar reason, the New Eng
land states on the Atlantic seaboartl
have a low birth rate The only differ
ence is that in these states the disparity
is on the other side of the column
there is an excess Of female residents.
In Rhode Island, for instance by the
last federal census, there were 10000
more female than male inhabitants in
state the total male population OF
which was $4,000. IN New Hampshire
the excess was 5000; in Connecticut il
was 1000, and in Massachusetts it was
$4,000. There is no danger of the depop-
ulation of any American state. In some
rural localities, it is true, population
has fallen off, due to emigration to
more fertile and productive regions. but
if there be any pessimist about who is
expecting the depopuation of any
American state within period vary
ing from GO to 200 years." he may bet
ter abandon his fears.-N. Y. Sun.
Dangerous Ink.
1t sometimes happens that trifling
scratch or Duncturp made with - ,oo,,