The Scranton tribune. [volume] (Scranton, Pa.) 1891-1910, 1897-09-07
The Future of Wheat,

Now that the benefits of dollar wheat
have been sufficiently exploited in the
press it perhaps is time to look forward
somewhat. 1t is we'll known that the
principal cause of the present high
price of wheat was the scarcity of
wheat and rye in Europe and the fail
ure of the crop in those countries that
ordinarily feed Europe. In the nature
of things we cannot expect this cOndi-
tion of things to become permanent.
Next year, or the year after it, ma
ture may smile again in India, in South
America and in the great grainfelds of
continental Europe itself, and then the
American wheat-grower, having under
the stimulus Of high prices planted his
utmost acreage, will find himself with
a large yield for which the expected
foreign demand will not reappear. How
will that affect him? Will it cause a
reaction in the rural districts upon
which Mr.. Bryan and his associate
traders on agricultural discomfort can
build new agitation for political revo-
luton?
Let us see. The maximum wheat
yield of the United States is 600, ,0O0, 900
bushels in round numbers. This repre-
sents as much wheat as the present
wheat fields of the entire republic can
produce when nature is propititous and
when wheat is given as we may say the
right Of way. The American crop this
year is not expected to amount to
more than 100000 900 bushels of which
possibly 200 OO0,0 900 bushels will be ex-
ported, leaving 300 600, 900 bushels as
the amount to be consumed at home, or
bushels per capita. If in 1878, dur
ing a period of recovery from a pro-
longed depression in all forms of busi-
ness activity, when economy had i'm
pressed itself upon the family life of
the people as an imperative necessity,
the consumption of wheat is bushels
per capita, it would seem to be reason
able to expect for the ensuing year from
say, July, 1898 TO July, 1899, a per capita
consumption ranging from to 6bushels
The fact that the people of the United
States have in one year of plenty-1SS3
consumed as high as 6l% bushels Der
capita gives us ground for expecting a
larger consumption next year than this,
and increasing from that year onward
in proportion both to the increase in
general prosperity and the natural
growth in population.
II next year the growth in popula-
tion is 100000 and the per capita con-
sumption of wheat is bushels, we
shall have a home demand for $50, 900 OOC
bushels, leaving a surplus for export
of not under any circumstances to ex-
ceed 220, ,000 900 bushels, but more like.
ly to be from 000O0000 to l2O, 900 OOC
bushels. Such a surplus could easily
be disposed of TO Europe even were
the worlds yield restored to normal
because the famine in India and the
seed needs of the Argentine and Rus.
sian districts would necessarily cur.
tail their supplies available for ex.
port. The year following with a pei
capita home consumption of bushels
and a growth in population Of ], 1,OOO 900
we should exhaust 462, 900, 900 of the 5OO,
900 to 600,000,0OO bushels of our yield
leaving a surplus for export that would
afford but slight if any embarrass
ment Thencet II, the natura
growth of the United States in popula.
tion would gradually solve the problem
of remunerative market for the
American farmers wheat until at g
time not many years distant the diff
ficulty should he, not how 20 get riC
TO advantage of wheat that we dom
need, but how to import sufficient whea
to supply our increasing needs.
OF course. dollar wheat is a tenn
porary price due to transient condi
tions; but there are permanent forces
at work toward gradual raising OF
the price of wheat from the level which