The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1897-08-23
crooks. s11vEn, HHEAr AND COAL.

.,tra speculation can no moro run one way
All the time than can the tides or the ocean.
Aftor the food comes the ebb. and what goes up
down, somewhat, II not as much as It
y ant up. On the other hand, 1t lie also to DO re-
=, smbered that to every ebb q food succeeds,
sooner or later. and that things which go down,
oomo nm again after awhile. As q rule, 1t IL
,afer to gamble on the bull than on tho boar side
AZ the market, because moro people buy to profit
IN A riso than cell to take advantage Of q fall, |
and for one hear there are q doz en- bulls. Prob
.bIy. therefore, last weeks decline is but a pro-
indie 70 q fresh upward movement, which,
thonQh IL may not como this week, will not DO
delayed forever.
The forecast made in this column, three weeks
,ro. that In the course Of the next few months. /
silver would drop to "a pence per ounce IN Lon
hon and 10 q little moro than so cents per ounce
here. has bnen already verified by the event
On wednesday. silver went q trino below "a
pence in London and to less than 90 cents here.
ounce then, there have been reactions in the price
hoth vayA and the closing quotations on Satur-
day were "a pence In London and 51Ts cents
hare. Tho threats of some silver mine owners
10 suspend operations because Of the low price
Of their product must DO taken with considerable
Allowance for o natural desire to reduce wages
and expcnses. In every industry some establish.
monts are worked close up to the profit line, and
when this line II passed profits are turned into
losses. Other concerns have o wider margin and
can bear q large reduction In their receipts
before their profits vanish. 1t has frequently
been asserted without contradiction that tho
silver from many mines costs but % cents per
ounce TO extract, and these, of course. will not
b closed until the metal falls below that figure.
Moreover, there are other mines where silver 10
q by.product, costing practically nothing. For
example. in Montana. In 1898. out Of a total
production OF II, 569. 100 ounces OF silver $685.
lA6 ounces, or moro than one-half, was ex-
trncted from copper ores. Lead taken from the
Broken Hill mines in Australia, in 1873. to the
amount OF 9 o,5l0 tons, yielded IL, .426
ounces OF silver. All gold. In its native state. Is
combined with silver, so that the mining Of gold
necessarily adds q certain quantity to the yield
of silver. 1t 10 not probable therefore that the
supply Of silver will DO greatly reduced by its
fall In price.
While silver thus goes down wheat continues
10 60 up, and 1t is only the most besotted silver
ties who still maintain that a bushel Of wheat
Il. By divine decree. always worth no moro
and no less than an ounce Of silver. With wheat
at 81 and upward per bushel, and silver at So
cents per ounce. 1t takes nearly two ounces of
silver to buy q bushel Of wheat, and the pros
pect 10 that. before long, 1t will take more than
two ounces. Some obstinate advocates OF the
silver standard still contend. however. that the
farmer 10 robbed by adherence to the gold stan
dard. because II tho price Of wheat were meas
ured by silver instead Of gold. he would get So
per bushel instead Of 81; but % the farmer still
buys his sugar. his coffee, his cotton goods, his
farm implements. and his supplies generally at
gold prices, and Is, moreover. getting out Of
debt, tho silver standard has not the fascination
for him that It once had.
ThN nm victinn IA gaining ground that opr In
creased exports Of wheat to supply the deficiency
In the harvests Of Europe. aided by the decrease
Of our imports due TO the operation Of the now
tariff. will soon lead to imports Of gold into this
country. Tho exports Of It have certainly
stopped for the present, and there are no indtca-
tions that they are about to be resumed How
soon the expected import will take place. de-
Ponds. however. upon q number Of causes. tho
net effect Of which 1t 10 not easy to forecast.
Austria and Russia are still buying the metal
81 0 small premium. and European money deal.
era may put mp the rates Of interest abroad so %
10 induce our bankers to leave on deposit with
them the gold they are entitled TO demand for
shipment hither. This was what happened last
autumn, and 1t 10 not unreasonable to expect
that 1t will happen in the autumn now ap-
preaching.
An interesting subject of theoretical specula.
tion 10 tho possible effect upon the worlds
finances which will result from the increasing
productiveness Of this country. coupled with its
policy Of shutting out foreign manufactures.
For years to come, we shall, In all probability.
furnish other countries with the greater part of
the cotton and the petroleum consumed by
them. and with much Of their wheat, beef. pork.
butter. cheese and other ~articles Of food. At
present the raw materials We import In return
Tor our exports arc. principally, sugar. coffee.
Tea. hides. india rubber, silk and wool. the re-
nainder OF our imports being wines and goods
IN various stages Of manufacture. Cane sugar
~e already produce to q considerable amount,
andff Germany under the stimulus of protective
bounties. can produce sugar from beets largely
enough TO supply Its own population and have
SURPLUS for export, we can do the Same. Tho
supply Of hides and Of wool, from homo sources,
VII. like that Of sugar. increase under proteo-
ton. OF manufactured goods we are already
producing many kinds In quantities sufficient
Tor our own consumption, and are In q fair way
20 produce the rest. Ultimately. therefore.
when the object aimed at by our present COM
mercial policy shall have been attained, the
foreign customers who buy from US cotton, po-
troleum and food Of various kinds will have
nothing to send rs In payment but coffee. tea,
silk. india rubber. and things like them, for the
production Of which our soil and climate are un-
suited. There will thus DO an enormous result
ant TRADE balance In our favor. which can DO
paid for only In gold. and. as the supply of this
oetal 10 limited. We shall either have to stop
selling our products abroad. or else we shall sell
chem on long credit. unless. indeed. like Pha-
raoh. We take in payment the land of our debt
ora. and thus become the owners Of all Europe.
Tho long.continued and widespread strike OF
the oituminous coal miners has not, as yet, ex.
orted the depressing effect upon business which
might legitimAtely DO expected from Il. The