The Seattle post-intelligencer. [volume] (Seattle, Wash. Terr. [Wash.]) 1888-1914, 1897-05-06

HEAT IN n Etanoir E<AN
The European newspapers are devoffng
some attention TO the commercial conse-
ouences which would ensue upon a war In
which at least Russia and England should
be engaged. Our own anrcipations have
been that In the event Of such struggle
the market for American wheat would Re
enlarged. or at least much higher prices
would prevail. The English newspapers
do not all OF them take that view, al least
those which devote attention 80 The more
practical view of public questions.
There is no doub, that the British mar
kets would. even in case Of var. stiil &C.
termine the price OF wheat throughout me
world. The price would DEPEND upon
two elements. one of which Is inc
ability of Russia TO continue undistn'D-
ed It's agricultural operations, and 'ns
freedom from interruption of the ocean
,~asTe fa,veer the United States and
Great Britain. Under the international
| agreement known as the deciaral"i ol
Paris neutral goods in an enemy snip
ore free from confscatlon, wnicn wouia
soa,, "a secure the delivery OF Amer
lean wheat. even In British bottoms,
,rcx,tded the wheat was owned in
transit by Americans. That would
prevent the capture OF the cargo SO
long as il kept IN open waters. ana PROD
ably result In the reimbursement OF those
owners IL It were captured or destroyed'
but this is always a very tedious process
and would b. very little inducement TO
American shippers, provided the enemy
was strong enough TO shut on access "
the English market. The price OF whsd.
would go up in England, and the specu-
iatsve price would therefore be maintain
ed. The price OF wheat would OF course
risa in this country; but only for time.
And then the gIutted market would cause
n reduction. This would be particularly
the case II Russia should not be invaded.
and the cultivation of It's wheat fields was
continued When war broke out between
Russia and Turkey in 1871, wheat went
I'D 50 cents bushel. partly in anticipa-
ton that Russia's regular contribution
would be diminished. and partly 10 the
expeetation that there would be general
war. That expectation was not fulfilled,
and the Russian wheat crop was for that
year larger by almost loo.ooo,c0 bushels
than In 1916. and she exported g per cent
more.
The London newspapers which refer TO
these facts as tending TO show that the
United States would not benefit by an
European war apparently overlooked the
other side of the question, and the one
which seems to US to present the greater
probability. If, instead of Russia closing
the ports of Great Britain, the latter
country should maintain her naval SUI
premaey. she could seriously cripple the
export trade of Russia. That country
sends on an average about S5ece.0Jo bush
els of wheat into the worlds markets TO
compete with ours, and contributes one
ninth of the wheat import OF Great Brit
ain, That is. in round numbers, about
%. eoocoo bushels. The contribution OF the
United States to the wheat consumption
Of Great Britain is about l02 e0o.o00 bush
els, and the demand for an additional
twenty million bushels would unduestion-
q
of American wheat. We can judge some
what of the probable effect from the fact
that In 1855. during the Crimean war.
wheat sold at s2.35 per bushel in Liverpool.
"A higher price than has ever prevailed
| since. OF course no sucn price could ever
/ be reached again, but it would be consid-
i erably higher than IL Is now.
| One conclusion forced upon US is that
| this country would benefit very much
more by the success of the English navy
than that of Russia. IL Russia prevailed,
she would continue her export to most
! European countries and could seriously
harass the importation to England of
/ American wheat; II Great Britain pre-
vailed she would shut out Of her ports all
/ the wheat she now takes from Russia,
probably interfere very much with the
! importation by other countries of Russian
| wheat. and her markets would be more
wide open than usual 10 American wheat
( Another phase OF the subject which must
not be overlooked is that the high price
Of wheat would only be TEMPORARY: the
accumulation would so on in Russia and
at the close OF the war the market would
be flooded again.
We may not agree with our English
contemporaries about the temporary ad-
vantage 10 us OF general war. but we
are compelled to admit their conclusion
! that the benefit would be no more than
temporary. The American Civil War did
not benefit Great Britain. but on the con-
| trary resulted in the Lancashire cotton
famine, one Of the most awful commercial
disasters that ever beferi a country. Spec
uiators in cotton and ships benefited, but
the great mass suffered ~ the interruption
10 legitimate business. We are. il Is true
IN rather better condition than England
because we have within our own borders
practically al the raw material. whereas
! Fngland. with all her manufacturing adj
vantages. was dependent 70 "A very great
extent upon her imports from abroad
There IS no permanent benefit from war.
excep; ~ the stimulus &c may give 70 new
Industries. which would thereafter hold
their place The lasting benefit
would be in a peaceful development Of
both countries, but meantime this country
would have a period Of activity.
ATHLETICS IN MIDDLE ACE.
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