The Portland daily press., 1897-06-22
a BIRTH-RATE SCARE DISMISSED.
The Decline in New England Compared
With the French Rate.
(From the New York Sun.)


From time to time elaborate statements
OF birth-rate statistics appear The most
recent batch of these figures shows that
while the birth rate in France has fallen
off from SO per thousand of population
at the beginning of the century to 20 per
thousand of population at the present
time, there has been an even greater de-
cline in some of the States of the United
States, and particularly in New England
The latest compilation made of birth-rate
figures shows the rate in Nevada TO be
1880 per 1000, so that it's population
would die out completely in less than
100 years. Maine follows with a birth
rate of 17.9 per thousand, which gives its
population about century longer to ex.
list. New Hampshire is third, with 1S
per thousand, Vermont fourth with IS,
and California fifth with 10 per thousand,
or nearly ~ per cent. less than the rate
in France. This fact the alarmist statis-
tician finds to be most striking, in view
of the favorable climate ample, area and
diversity of interests in the State. Fol
lowing California is Connecticut, which
has birth rate of 21.3 per thousand.
Massachusetts, has q 5. Rhode Island
has 22.5, a somewhat higher rate than
the French, but still insufficient to pre-
vent the extinction of the population
within two or three centuries. Wyo-
ming, with it's 81 8 comes between Massa-
chusetts and Rhode Island, while Oregon
has a rate of 22.5. The conclusion drawn
from these statistics is that within Pc
Rod varying from go to 200 years, accord
ing to circumstances, the present popula.
ton of New England and the Pacific
coast will he replaced. All this of course
very alarming-if true.
But it isn't true, and the total extinc-
tion of the Gaelic race or the Anglo-Sax-
expected or looked for, the statisticians to
the contrary Notwithstanding, and for a
very plain and simple reason. A low
birth rate is not mark of decadence any
where; it is mark of the disparity be-
tween the sexes in the population of any
State or country Statisticians make
usually the mistake of estimating the
number of births, but by the relation
which the number of these births bear to
the total population. 1t is from this that
they get their elusive "birth rate ana
little examination of the facts on which
their last alarming bulletin is based will
show this conclusively. In Nevada, by
the last federal census, the number of
males in the State was 5000. There
were nearly twice as many males as fe-
males, but the statisticians, taking no
regard of this disparity, based their esti-
mates on the number of births to the to-
tai population, and thus arrived at the
conclusion that the population of this
was dying out. In Oregon, by the last
census taken by federal authority, there
were $50, 900 males and 10000 females,
and in this State for the same reason as
in Nevada the birth rate appears to be
small. California is another State which
the statisticians aver will at the pres ent
rate soon become depopulated. Theoreti
population has increased from $4,000 in
1860 to 100000 in 1870, sos, 900 in 1880, and
1 100000 in 1S90-quite rapid increase
for State which, according to the stats
ticians, is becoming depopulated. The
reason of their error is the same in Cali
fornia as in Oregon and Nevada BY the
last census the number of male residents
of that State was zoo, 600, and of female
residents 100000. There is considerable
Chinese population in Observation-Disclosures
exclusively male-and the effect of this
disparity between the sexes is to make it
appear that the birth rate is low where
in fact, it is SO much larger than the
death rate that the population is increas-
ing all the time.
For similar reason the New England
States on the Atlantic seaboard have a
low birth rate. The only difference is
that in these States the disparity is on
the other side of the column-there is an
excess of female residents. In Rhode Is
land, for instance, by the last federal CEN
sus, there were 10000 more female than
male population which was 1853, 900.
In New Hampshire the excess was 5000,
in Connecticut it was 1000, and in Massa-
chusetts it was $4,000. There is no dan
ger of the depopulation of any American
State. In some rural localities, it is true,
population has fallen off, due to emigra-
ton to more fertile and productive re-
gions, but if there be any pessimist about
who is expecting the depopulation of any
American State within period vary
ing from 60 to 200 years." he may better
abandon his fears.