The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1897-03-09
PROSPECTS, FOR REUIrKoC,TY.

When President Mckinley comes to
the negotiation, with a club, Of trea-
ties Of reciprocal trade with the coun-
tries with which we have the least
trade, who buy the least of and sell
the most to us. which he will be un-
doubtedly authorized to make by the
Dingley bill. he will find conditions
very much changed since President
Harrison swung that club over the
heads of the South American republics
He will find that our trading stock has
diminished both in value and quantity.
The two countries whose trade with US
showed a marked increase of exports
under the reciprocity arrangements of
1912 were Cuba and Brazil. The re-
duction by Spain of the duty on flour
immensely augmented the consumption
of it in that island, and our exports
rose finely to meet it. although, as our
Cuban imports increased proportional
ly, we continued that ruinous policy Of
dropping our millions into Cuba" as
Mr.. Blaine expressed 1T.
Now, however, Cuba's ability to con-
sumo, that is to take and pay for our
food products, either in cash or prod
uce, Is very materially lessened. War
has ravaged the island, very few of the
sugar or tobacco plantations have
escaped the torch, either of the insur-
gents or the Spaniards, and, even if
peace coma soon If will +oLo warns +o
restore the fields to their former pro-
ductive state and replace the buildings
destroyed. Another formidable obsta-
Gle to trade has resulted in the de-
rangement Of the currency. an ire
deemable paper currency having dis
placed gold and carried silver to near
ly its own level. 1t is probable that
there will follow a large demand for
machinery for the sugar plantations
when peace finally comes; but in the
main the people will be without the
means to buy much of our products.
and 1t Is useless to expect a market
for flour such as we had there in 1892
1893. The necessities of revenue will
also interfere to render the Spanish
government less liberal than IT. was
then in reducing duties on imports, and
the same difficulty will present itself
should independence be achieved. De-
spoiled and bankrupt nations are not
good customers either with or without
reciprocal arrangements.
The next best customer we had. the
one taking the next largest quantity of
our exports, was Brazil. But here, too
economic changes have taken place in
the six years that will change the at
tltude of that country toward some of
the products we would make a base
OF mutual exchange. Flour and meat
products are no longer available to US
as trading stock. Within these Years
Brazilians have found that they can
import wheat from the Argentines and
convert it into -four in their own mills
and realize handsome profit So rapid
has been the increase of the milling
industry that domestic mills now near
ly supply the home demand, while, ini-
tating our policy, a heavy duty has
been put upon imports of flour to pro-
tect their infant industry 1t is not
probable that the Brazilian government
would reverse this policy even under
threat Of duty on her exports OF cot
fee and hides. Nor, as that country
| furnishes our chief supply Of coffee. is
1T likely that Mr. Mckinley would
arouse the antagonism of the break
fast tables of this country by imposing
a duty on Brazilian coffee The other
republics are less amenabie to the club
than they were six years ago, and the
negotiation of trade treaties with them
will be much more difficult, even if it
should not be made with this country
occupying a threatening and belliger-
ent attitude. The outlook for sham
reciprocity is not encouraging.