The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1897-10-20
Cotton.

BY far the most interesting and impor.
tant problem of our present commercial
situation is the sum Of money which is
likely to be realized this year from the
sale of what is usually our most valuable
article of export, cotton.
Alone among the great staples cotton has
not advanced In price. Its value, on the
contrary, has declined continuously, tho
downward movement having prevailed for
a longer time without reaction than ever
before, and the price Of the article now
resting within three-quarters of a cent
a pound of the lowest figure recorded.
Lower prices than the present price
have been known but once in the
history of cotton growing, and this de-
spite the fact that the outlook for the
business of cotton manufacturing in this
country is excellent, that the stocks of cot
ton goods on hand have been greatly re-
duced and that what is known as the sta
~tistical position of cotton is very strong.
Tho worlds visible supply of cotton, as
compiled last week by the Financial
Chronicle, was 763, O70 bales less thar on
the same week in October, 1896; 994, Gao
bales less than on the corresponding date
in 1895, and SO7,576 bales less than in
1894. AS the United States produces
nearly all the cotton in the world, about
six-sevenths of this deficiency is to be cred.
tied to the American stocks.
The decline in the price Of cotton has
been caused primarily by the belief that
the crop which will come into sight during
the cotton year, begun on Sept. l, will be
an enormous one. 1t Is known that the
land devoted to cotton growing in this
country this year is "a, 600, 900 acres,
an increase of ,OO0, 900 acres over last
year. While the weather conditions have
not been entirely favorable during the
season, they have been generally 80.
Nearly three-fourths of the crop has
been picked, the operation having been
facilitated by the unusual warmth and
dryness of the fall months, and there is no
doubt whatever that a very large amount
of cotton will come upon the market before
the first of September, 1898. The estimate
of its quantity now having the greatest
influence upon the trade is that of Mr..
HENRY NELL, the head of q prominent
cotton exporting firm in Liverpool, who
has been remarkably fortunate in his crop
estimates for the last two or three years.
Mr.. NEILL's house is an English one. hav-
ing branches In Liverpool and London, and
his estimates have weight with Eng
lish buyers of cotton. He declares that
this years cotton crop will DO at
least 1O,3OO,0 900 bales and may run
into something like 100000 bales. If
any such unprecedented figures arc to be
realized, the present low price of cotton is
reasonable. Another depressing influence
equally as great is the hard times that nave
come upon the English spinners. thisb being
due to the plague, famine, and financial
troubles in India and other countries where
the product Of the English looms is sold.
Az two-thirds of the American cotton ia
sent to Europe, the condition of business
there has a much more important bearing
on the price of cotton than does the condi,
tiOn of business here.
On the other hand. while 1t Is certain
that the crop will be a large one, conserva,
tive men in the cotton trade are skcptical
about its reaching any such vast quantity
as Mr.. NELL predicts. The amount of cot,
ton that can be raised from a given
quantity Of land varies with the character
of the soil. In some bottom lands of ex,
ceptional Fertility in Louisiana and TexAl