The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1897-07-11
n.

@aO .NNA - N0S SoCo "a a. - 20
Of Monte Carlo roulette is to show that chance
in the cle,r and definite sense given to the word
BY NEUTRALITY-SUSPICIOUS., as the term 10 APP
piled TO the tossing Of an unloadcd coin-has no
application to roulette as IL is played at Monte
Carlo. He examines the records of the tables.
which are published in a special Partisan jour
nal entitled lie Monaco. and which are not re-
pudiated By the SocifE. He shows that an in.
cident which occurred on a roulette table at
Monte Carlo during a certain month WAS so i'm.
probable in its characteristics that 1t would only
occur on the average once In 167. 900 years OF
continuous roulette playing. Against two other
fncidents, the odds were a thousand millions 70
one; so that, ~ Monte Carlo roulette had gone on
since the beginning Of geological time on this
earth. We could not have expected one OF those
occurrences TO take place. In a word, roulette,
as played at Monte Carlo, is not a scientific
game OF chance. Such results as those published
in LIE Monaco give the deathblow to the mathe-
matician's theory OF the random spinning OF a
mechanically accurate roulette. The man
Of science may predict the results OF
tossing half pence, but the Monte Carlo
roulette confounds his theories and mocks
at his laws. Esrecially does the sue
cession of reds and blacks set the laws Of
chance at defiance in the most persistent and
remarkable manner. Short runs are deficient
and the color changes much more frequently than
the laws OF chance prescribe. 1t Is not, OF course,
Prof. Pearson's object to inquire how this re-
dundancy Of ntermittences must upset the cal
~culation OF those players who follow scien.
tinc theory; he simply notes that the ex-
istence Of such a redundancy demonstrates
that roulette at Monte Carlo is not a
game Of chance, and that no scheme,
were there, indeed, such possible. would avail
to break the bank" 1t is suggested that some
anarIrtpp 4 thA rlo - - 49,.
table may have led NJ. Blanc to say that he
would give a million to any one who would
prove that money could be woa with certainty
at roulette. Our authors conclusion is that,
since the Casino at Monte Carlo does not even
serve the end OF a huge laboratory for the prep
aration of probability statistics, II has no scien-
tifc rdison detre.
In the essay on Reproductive Selection" the
author draws from such data as he has been able
to collect the deduction that, whatever may be
the conditions which obtain among lower types
Of life or among races Of uncivilized man where
the struggle for existence is more severe. it now
seems possible, il not probable. that the survival
OF the most fertile, rather than the survival of
the ~fttest, is the keynote to cvo!ution in civilized
man. The social Importance Of such q concep-
ton. even II 1t be treated merely as a pos
sibility, seems to demand the collection
Of q wider range Of statistics and q
most careful examination OF them. 1t has
been usual to associate certain undeniably anti.
social characteristics, such as rccklessness and
want OF thrift, with extreme fertility in man.
II may turn out that, after all. the prudential re-
straint on marriage and parentage observed by
the moro educated members Of the community.
which we are apt to regard as a social virtue,
has its dark side. In a ~footnote to this essay we
find the interesting statement attributed to
credible medical authorities in Paris that the
French population is becoming Breton. owing
to the fact that this element OF tho popu.
lation docs not limit its fertility to any
thing like tho same extent as do other ele-
ments. Nearly all large families in France arc
found to be OF Breton extraction. From another
~footnote we learn that the author, In n paper
recently presented to the Royal Society. adj
duced evidence OF correlation between fertility
and stature In women. and expressed the opin.
ion that the corresponding reproductive selec-
ton, II unchecked by other factors OF evolution,
would lead to an alteration In the mean stature
of women OF between three and four inches In a
thousand years