The Meridional. (Abbeville, La.) 1856-1906, 1897-11-13
Saturday. November Is, 1897.
The Undue Depression i'm Gotto,
BY COL. A. B. STEPHENSON.

BY COL. a. B. STEPHENSON.
Since the beginning of the new
season on September | cotton has
declined Il cents per pound In New
York and correspondiugly in all
American markets. The present
price Of 6 8 is cents for middliDg
upland is the lowest since March,
1895, when sales were made at 5
8 l6 cents--a price lower than DUR
ing any season since 1848. The
price is now Il cents lower than a
year ago despite the fact that on the
18th instant the stock of cotton In
all American markets was 100000
bales less than at the corresponding
time last year. Not only this, but
the stocks Of all descriptions of cot-
ton in the European ports we're 269,
600 bales less than at the cores
ponding time in 1896; $4,000 less
than in 1895, and 734,000 less than
1894, while the combined stocks Of
European and American %spinners are
very moderate and much less than q
year ago.
The season opened with small sup.
plies Of cotton in the markets and at
the mills and the actual statistical
position was and is strong. The
chief causes Of the existing depres-
sion are the opinions held by many
%spinners that our crop will certainly
reach and may considerably exceed
ten millions Of bales; the unsatisfac
tory condition of the cotton spinning
industry in England with the fear Of
q strike in the near future in view of
the proposal of mill owners to reduce
wages Of operatives; the depression
in trade ia some sections Of the Con
tinent in consequence of poor crops,
etc, etc.
Opinions differ as to whether the
decline has proceeded far enough, or
whether the price will fall still low
err before any substantial reaction to
better the prices will occur. 1t is
perfectly evident TO me that sooner
or later a reaction must come. 1t is
only q question of time, and the
greater the decline, the greater will
be the rebound. 1t is always so.
Taking a broad view of the present
and prospective supply aud demand
and of the causes of the existing de-
preston, | think the decline in cotton
has been greater than the conditions
warranted, and that, therefore, a
moderate reaction which might easily
develop into a very decided one may
occur at ,any time. Frosts in the
cotton belt, or liberal buying by
spinners, Investors or spectators,
would at~N&ea check the declining
tendency anNdStnrn the current of the
market quickly in the opposite direc-
ton. The very first sign of a deci-
ded reaction would undoubtedly
caus liberal buying by American
and foreign spinners, who would
suddenly discover what they ought to
know now, that cotton is cheap and
o safe Investment even at prices con-
siderably higher than those now
ruling. There is doubtless a very
large ''short interest" on the New
York Cotton Exchange. No people
ere as quick to see the incoming of a
rising tide in prices as those gentle-
men who sell for future delivery
thousands of bales Of cotton which
they do not happen to own previous
to the little formality of selling it.
When they 'scent danger" and start
in to buy futures to cover their
"short sales they will rush the
prices up On themselves and on the
belated spinners. An advance in
futures" started by the buying of
frightened "hears" to cover their
"short sales and sustained by the
legitimate buying of spot cotton by
spinners would quickly attract to
cotton the attention of outside in
vestors aud spectators and thus a
permanently higher range of prices