New-York tribune., 1897-02-09
THE GAIN MIST BE GRADUAL.


III some remarks on the folly of expecting too
speedy or complete restoration OF prosperity, Mr.
Russell Sage puts quantity of common-sense
into particularly vigorous English. He has great
faith in Mckinley. but is not one Of the men
who believe that all the changes which Pres
dent has been elected 10 carry through can be
accomplished before he has been inaugurated
or has begun 10 work Mr. Sage believes in Re
publican policies, but does not expect 10 see
them revoutiOnze the business Of the country
long before they have gone into operation. He
believes better times are surely coming. but does
not take leave Of his own sanity by assuming
that the harm done by four years Of extreme
prostration can be all repaired within a month
or TWO. with no other basis as yet than hope.
1t Is not 10 be denied that general confidence
in the future in advance Of any actual change
in the policies of the Government, has accom-
pshed much already. and very much more than
many reasonable men expected. There are
more establishments and mills and shops at
work than there were three months ago, and
more men are earning wages. and thus are en-
abled TO buy for themselves and their families
supplies which have for long time been pur
chased as sparingly as possible. The influence
of this prevalent confidence illustrates perfectly
the contrary influence which was felt after the
election in 1892. before President Cleveland had
been inaugurated, or a Democratic Congress had
assembled or anything had been done TO change
the policies of the Government. Men then knew
that changes were coming. and began 10 pre-
pare for them by curtang operations and risks
Men now know that changes of the opposite kind
are coming. and have begun 10 prepare for them
by enlarging operations and risks. The depres
sion did not then extend and the improvement
does not now. 10 all departments of business
nor Is il Of like proportion in all the parts af-
fected. But it was a real depression that began
with prevalent apprehensOns in November, 1892
and IT is real improvement that began with
reviving confidence in November. 1896
II is necessarily limited. because business men
cannot yet forcsee just what changes are to he
made or when. They are confident thar
larger demand for certain goods is coming, but
are not yet able to judge whether IL will come
before the existing stocks of goods in their hands
have been distributed or somewhat later nor
whether II will be Of such nature az 10
strengthen the home market for all goods OF
that class or only for part OF them. In the
larger operations which have TO anticipate by
several months the final execution Of orders and
the payment. the uncertainty is in in
stances lcssened because OF the probability That
a new tariff will he enacted during the summer
but in other instances is increased because the
precise provisions of that tariff cannot he aniic-
paied 1t may so change the duties on tinplates
or steel beams. for example that control Of the
home market by American producers will not he
imperilled II Bessemer pig and steel billes
should materially advance in cost, but OH the
other hand il may not. Men who are taking
large risks, II they accept contracts at named
figures. are Of necessity affected by such in
formation as they can get regarding the par
tlcular kinds Of changes proposed, and the time
they may take effect
Ii ls impossible to avoid this uncertainty. II