New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1897-10-13

The crop report OF the Agrlcul tlral Depart
mcnt for October brings out In strong light the
difficulties with which Secretary Wilson has to
contend. 1t Is evident that the Secretary feels
the unwOrhincss Of the returns collected for
some years past. because he declines 10 publish
any estimate of the average yield Of wheat per
acre until he has before him the result OF a spc-
cial Investigation regarding acreage and produc-
ton. which Is now approaching completion. HIS
mind has evidently been fixed upon the one rad
ical error which, in the Judgment Of the public.
has FOR years been growing IN pernclous force
and dcprivlnG the official returns Of accuracy.
The acreage estimate has been far out OF the
way. without doubt, for five years or more. Each
years returns. being in the form OF percentages
to the acreage reported the previous year. op-
crate 10 carry forward whatever errors have
existed. In addition. the same local and spec
ulatlve interests which have operated 10 make
past returns deceptive have their influence upon
each new report Of percentages rendering these
also Increasingly erroneous
The cotton report exhibits similar errors OF
method. with The consequences Of certain arbl-
irary changes In the estimate of acreage. which
were made by the statlsllclan under Secretary
Morton when II was realized that estimates
~ the Yield had become ridiculous In view Of
the actual movement of tho product. Bur IN
cotton statements. apparently even more than
in returns OF wheat. the reports Of condition
seem 10 be Systematically misleading with
tendency 10 get further from The fact year 10y
ycnr. Hence the report ~ decline of 81 point.
IN condition IN September had no influence on
the market tho less because the officials or
clerks in tho Department used for comparison
the October returns OF last year. which lndl-
entirely dlscrcdted 10y The records of actual
movement from plantations. The Influence Of
these misleading returns. II they are intended
by State and local correspondents to help the
farmer all they can" ia exactly the opposite
because they nre sccn 10 he distorted in that
direction. the tendency Is 10 convince business
men and traders that they orr more widely n
minimizing tho yield than IN fact they do
The estimates OF corn. OATS and other grain
have not been so persls,ently misleading. per.
haps because the local influence of farmers or
CARNATIONS and the Jennings Of reporters and
agents toward tho side which will promote high
er prices In the markets are not 50 much felt
The farmers are not. as n rule. selling a large
share of the crop Of corn in The fall and their
decision nc to the quantity 10 be sold or TO be
held for feeding Is not reached until Inter The
with much interest on farms. and while the
Department estimates rs 10 these and minor
grains have occasionally been strangely mac
curate. there has been comparatively little in
dIcalon OF persistent purpose 10 dstort them
for the supposed benefit of farmers This year
the Government report MS 10 corn. indicating n
yield ~ over 1S0ooooooo bushels is higher
than the commercial estimates usually consid-
,,.ft
brought over from last year gives promise that
about as much can DO exported as went out last
year. unless the outlook for meats and tho price
Of corn incline the farmers to increase the ouan-
tty used for feeding With m Increase Of 80
100000 bushels In the estimated Weld of oats
and 100000 In rye. the prospects for agrl-
cultural prosperity are. on the whole brighter
than for some years past The price of cotton
is low. hut the yield Is undoubtedly large: the
yield Of wheat. however large II NAV be- Is met
by foreign conditions which promise n good
market. and of other grain tho farmers have n
larger supply, with fairly satisfactory demand.