Arizona republican., 1897-12-30
Conditions for Next Year Bright
 CT Than in the Past One
IMPROVEMENTS IN ALL LINES
A Most F!attering Prospect for
 the Export Trade
Business Men Do Not Expect Re- formed Financial Policy at this Congress Eut They Are Hopeful of Popular Education.

stock exchange dOeS no Uvary materia = ly from the conditions existing since the late upward turn in prices. Some prominent operators, whose buying started that recovery, seem to have realized their profits and are now op- erating in a transient off and on sort of way, but no longer constitute a per sistent bull element. The market is therefore dependent mainly upon it's intrinsic strength, backed by the mod crate buying of a bullish outside con- tingent and the expectation of the rise that usually attends the distribution of investment earnings at the opening of the year.
 The situation contains some very important elements faNoring specula- tion for higher prices The satisfac- tory aspects of general business are well maintained. According to the re- ports from trade circles and from the manufacturing centers, there is good reason for expecting that the commer- cial recovery of 1897 will be more than equalled in 1898. Advices from the agricultural states indicate the pros pect of a more active business than has been realized for many years, and suggest a probability of the hquida- tion Of an important amount of farm mortgages, with the effect of creating a demand from the mortgages for other securities to take their place. The iron trade, which is accepted as the best barometer of the condition of bus mess at large, continues it's remark able increase of activity The best evidence of the magnitude of the cur rent increase in this industry is afford ed by the fact that lake shipments of iron ore for 1897 amount to 12,0OO, ,O00 gross tons against 9,6OO, 900 in 1S96- showing gain during the twelve months of 2,600,0 tons, or nearly 30 ner cent; and yet there is a probabil- ity of a still larger movement in 1898. Our exports of steel rails and railroad Equipments and also of e.ectrica. plants are assuming very extraordi- nary dimensions; and there are indica- tions of an increase in the home con- struction of railroads. to say nothing of the undertaking of long deferred repairs and improvements and pur- chases of rolling stock. The continued fall in prices has made it possible to export a variety of articles for which we have hitherto been unable to find foreign outlet; and this, with other conditions. foreshadows the full pla;n- tenance of the increase in exports of manufactures which has been steadily gaining for the last two or three years. The value Of this lies not merely in our gaining new sources of trade. but equally in the relief which is afforded to our congested home markets, and the consequent better opportunity tor the realization of industrial profits. It is not easy to over estimate the inn portance of this growth in our export trade. The total foreign shipments of merchandise for the last eleven months exceed those of the same period of 1896 by $S6, ,O00, 900 and of 1895 by 242,300,0O0. This gain has been largely due to our extraordinary ship ments of breadstuffs; but, judging from the fact that our winter wheat acreage sowl this year is estimated to exceed last years by per cent, while the European acreage is report ed to be under that of 1896, the.e seems to be a probability that next year also we may have a large surplus of wheat for export. Thus, so far as the business of next year may depend upon our export trade, the outlook for business in 1898 Is most hopeful.
 The operations of railroads continue to exhibit an extraordinary increase of earnings. The gross traffic re- ceipts of 131 roads for November show an average increase of 20 per cent over those of 1896. For the first eleven months of the year 124 roads show an increase of s30,S0o, ,00O; during the first half of the period, however, ths earn ings showed but slight increases. so that most of the gain has been made within the last six months. Although there has recently been some consider able irregularity in rates, the increase on net earnings has been in a higher ratio than on gross. For the month of October, 130 roads show a gain in net earnings averaging S.45 per cent, and in gross of only per cent For the first ten months of the year, the net business of 118 roads shows an in crease of 11.12 per cent, whilst the gain in the gross earnings was only 5.2 DEF cent. This is very satisfac- tory exhibit and evidences improved management in this class of invest ments.
 The opening of congress has had l:t-