New-York tribune., 1897-08-23
THE POPULAR CONCLUSION.

Events could hardly nave Sulteu htPuoi'"h
interests more perfectly than they have during
the last few years. 1t is not yet quite month
since the new Republican tariff was passed ana
signed by the President All Free Traders will
of course assert that the rapid change in the con
dlton Of business has had nothing TO do with the
tariff SO they likewise asserted that the be-
ginning Of commercial disaster within two weeks
after the election in 1892 was in no way caused
or hastsned by the result Of the election. The
world does not readily ascribe several such
condolences to accident. The plain people note
the beginning Of bad times in November. 1S92.
within fortnight Of Mr.. Cleveland's election.
and the era Of good times in August. 1871,
within a fortnight after the enactment of Re-
publican tariff, and forty years of agonized spe-
cial pleading will not alter the conclusion which
most men form.
1t is obvious that the partial failure of Eli
ropean crops has much 10 do with American in
dustrial prosperity. SO the banking panic in
Europe late in 1890 not result of Demo-
cratic votes. How serious the influence of for
eign disasters would have been in this country
had no revolution in National politics been fore
shadowed may not be definitely stated. But
everybody can understand that the effects in this
there had not been such state Of things pro-
duced here in 1S92-'93 as to promote heavy sales
of American securities on foreign account and
large exports of gold from this country. No
doubt the large crops and the foreign demand
have helped the country this year and will yet
help It, but no such effects as are now seen
could have been produced if there had not been
steady preparation for months in every branch
of industry for the revival expected after the
enactment of a new tariff. Without ignoring the
contributing influence of foreign disasters in
1890 or OF foreign demand in 1897. il may he
claimed with reason that the rough public judg
ment is no. in error. Great disasters came in
1892 93. and it is not probable that such disasters
would have appeared had not revolution in
the policy of the Government been threatened.
Great Improvement comes in 1897. but such i'm
provement. probably. would not have come if a
return to the wise Republican policy had not
favored IL to the utmost.
1t is the habit of political opponents TO treat
such suggestions with dersion. The tariff
enacted in July. they say, could not have caused
the large crops in this country or the short crops
abroad. But the suggestion Is essentially de-
ceptive If Government reports are of any
value, we had a larger crop Of wheat in 1892
than may be expected this year. 1t is not at all
certain aS yet that the country will have a
larger foreign demand for wheat than ii had five
years ago. when exports were not far from 200-
100000 bushels. The course Of the stock market
must not be overlooked Europe has been try
ing to cover its grain requirements by selling
securities for some weeks past. but American
confidence in the future has been strong that
prices have steadily advanced in spite of Eu-
rOpean selling. and the net result has been large
buying by new investors in England and Ger
many. The situation was quite different five
years ago. The selling then met no defeating
confidence in the future of American stocks.
The key of the whole business is the strong
and prevailing faith OF foreigners in the recuper-
alton Of this country. We know they are right
now. we knew they were right when they
looked for bad setback five years ago II was
not dream or a guess at tha; time. and to-day
the country is rapidly rising to the level of bust
ness done in 1892, after tagging for five years
from 20 TO 40 per cent behind that level If
every voter in the country draws from such
facts the conclusion that the Republican policy
means Nationa! prosperity, he will not be scri-
ously in error.