The watchman and southron. [volume] (Sumter, S.C.) 1881-1930, 1897-11-03
the past season, but Germany, Aus

I'LL aRON, NOV EMbt
the past season, but Germany, Aus
tria aud France complain of poor
trade and over production. due in
some measure to the new spindle Ca
pacity. In Germany 100000 new
spindles were pnt up last season and
100000 10 1000 more are arranged
for. It is hardly necessary to state
that Lancasbire's business has been
disappointing this season In our
own country the results of the last
cotton year were Disappointing. but
the improvement in general business
since August, it is hoped, before
long will be reflected in the Ameri-
Can cotton goods trade. Tt is of in.
terest to note that four ffths Of the
increased spindle capacity of this
country is in the south, and the con.
sumption of southern mills last. sea-
son was over 100000 bales, against
about 68O,000 bales five years ago,
while northern mills have spun only
1885, ,0o0 bales, against 2.O25,000
bales FIVE years ago. These figures
point TO the practical acquisition by
southern mills of the low-grade cot
tom goods trade Of the country, and
it is hardly necessary to add the stu
alton in the market for these low
grade goods is not at all satisfactory.
If the generally admitted shortage
of cotton, and particularly that Of
American growth, had been accom-
panied by an active consumptive de-
mand. the trade might look forward
with comparative equanimity to
very considerable accession to the
supply the present season. But as
shown, reports of poor trade come
very generally from the largest cot
ton consuming countries of the
world, and any estimates of the out
look for consnmptive requirements
the present season must be made
with knowledge that the trade out
look is poor not only in Great Brit
ain, where some slight Improvement
has lately been shown. but also on
the continent, where last year the
consumption of raw Gotten was very
large, some of it, it is to be feared, at
the expense of stocks of manufactu
red goods.
In estimating the amount needed
in Europe this season, Ellison states
that he has placed the increase at
only 104, 900 bales, because Of the
probable check to consumption
caused by increased stock of unsold
goods IN first hands. The United
States be thinks. will want 100, ,000
bales more this year, and with the
takings Of Mexico, Canada and other
countries will call for q total Of 10,-
740. 900 bales Of 500 pounds. against
1O.5l2,000 last year. He looks for
smaller exports from India to Europe,
say 250.0 900 bales less. With these
estimates of supply and demand, he
estimates that an American crop of
9,410.0o0 bales is necessary, as
against 8.945,000 bales year ago.
This increased amount. it is hardly
necessary to add, will be fully sup
Piled if the maximum estimates of a
1000, 900 to 100000 bale crop
are correct.
Apropos of this, Ellison says: Gas
to the probable extent of the new
American crop there is, of course
difference of opinion (; but whereas
at this time last year few people had
the courage to name large figures,
this season still fewer have the cour-
age to name small or even moderate
figures The computations mostly
talked about range from $500, 900 to
10, ,OOO, 600, with some in the neigh
borhood of $3.50 900 and others in
the region of 1o,250,000. giving an
allround average of 9,750,000."
In considering the present price of
cotton, which is 2 cents lower than
year ago, it should not be forgotten
that the American crop of 1894-95
was practically 100000 bales and
prices fell nearly J cent below the
range now ruling, and later on In the
year showed an advance from that
low point of nearly or quite 3 cents
a pound. To-day. with the worlds
consumptiye requirements at least
400 900 in excess of consumption in
that year, che present price of cot
ton. only J cent above the lowest
price on record in recent years, does
not look unduly high.-Bradstreet's.
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