New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1897-10-06
TIE Partners GOOD FORTUNE.

The October trade estimates OF wheat yield
are substantially agreed. a month or TWO ago
the two generally regarded as entitled 10 most
confidence were about 30.OOO.OOO bushels apart
now one reckons yield Of 5S0.000,000 and the
| other 5S9,O00.000 bushels. though the TWO STATE
mcnts differ as to acreage and yield per acre.
Both exceed the official estimate by more than
| 1oo oOo 600 bushels. and the course Of the mar
ket sufficiently proves how little confidence IS
given to estimates based on erroneous accounts
OF acreage carried forward for years past by
the department which 1t has not yet recon-
structed. Were there supposed to be any possi-
blllty that the yield Of wheat would prove less
than 4SO.0OO0OO bushels the price would not be
tagging below 81 bushel, for all estimates OF
foreign needs are supported by an export he
mand which continues unusually large for the
season.
In the fiscal year o2-'93 the exports Of wheat
and -four were 102, 100000 bushels Of which
81 900 900 bushels went out in the first quar-
ter This year the exports in the first quarter
hive been over 5o,OOO,O0O bushels. and foreign
advlces indicate shortage 10O,OOo'0oO pushei'
greater than usual In the last four years the
exports from this country have averaged slight
" over 145.OoO.OOO bushels and were slightly
increase In foreign deficit would imply need
Of o15 600 900 bushels from this country unless
foreign consumption should be restricted, or
the crops TO come IN after January should
exceed expectations As TO substitution Of corn
for wheat. that Is the less 10 be considered be-
cause foreign crops OF other grains and potatoes
are far below the average and yet last years
exports of corn were 117,000.0O0 bushels. WIN
tI,f : &c
much more com can be spared from feeding
but Europe will require a much greater guam
tty to make up for its deficit of other grain. not
counting wheat II there is likely TO be for
eign demand for more than 2o0,0oO,OS bush
els of wheat. It IS evident that It could rot he
met, even approximately. with such crop rs
the Government estimates .GO,OOoOoo bushcls
of which about 337. 100000 bushels nrc re-
0uired for food and 53.OOoOoD for seed' or "'-'-
600 900 bushels nj home.
The markets not only discard the official es;i
mates but evidently incline 10 accept the high
est figures as probable. because the price has
been depressed by realizing Of great speculative
pools. and yet has not fallen ut any time below
about % cents When Il is considered that no
such price has been realized in September or
October since 1891. when the foreign demand
took over 225CoOOOO bushels from the only
crop which has ever exceeded the current est-
mates for this year, II must he accepted as the
Judgment OF the markc; that the yield has been
large enough to provide about as great surplus
for export as was shipped In 1892. II that
quantity, 100. 100000 bushels should be found
70 suffice with some decrease IN foreign con
sumpton, the crop would have 10 be JSi 100000
bushels TO meet the demand without further
reducing the stocks remaining nj the end OF The
crop year. which were the lowest July ! for
the last six years. Any prospect OF material
reduction in the stock carried over would tend
almost ,rres,stlbly TO higher prices than have
yet been realized this year.
Thus the general opinion rs well as the IN
formato, Of the crop reporters entitled to most
confidence, seems to be that the yield or 1874
will be found not far from 59O0oo,ooo bushels,
affording enough and yet little more than enough
TO supply over 19O.o0000o bushels for foreign
needs without material reduction OF stocks IN
reserve But the question which remains ana
which will greatly influence the course OF the
markets hereafter, Is whether the needs OF for
e,en countries can be met with no greater sup
plies from the United States II estimates OF
foreign ira 10 Journals and experts and or FOR
egn Governments are approximately correct. n
larger quantity Will be required. even II there
should come from Argentina and other countries
after January over 50.o00000 bushels more than
such countries have furnished In recent years.
That their crops promise better than those or
last year is evident. but whether they Will DO
able to supply as large quantity ~ that named
for export must remain matter Of doubt until
after the new year has begun. Meanwhile. the
activity OF the export demand will be likely to
Influence the course OF American markets
strongly, and for that reason the demand may
be as far concealed and also deferred az pos
sible. In order to avoid lifting the price until
engagements for foreign use have been largely
made. For American farmers, in any case, the
outlook Is highly encouraging though It may
not warrant them In trying to keep back from
market TOO large n share OF their grain until
after January I.