New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1897-11-05
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR.
THE WOOL CLIP OF 1897.


am ..orru prp11rs TO THE TRIBUNE's CRIT1-
CIsM or THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF
voor, ACTURERs' ESTIMATE
To the Editor OF The Tribune.
Sir: My attention is called TO your eui'oIiai
,io,o If the 18Th commenting upon and criticising
the estimate of the wool clip OF 1891 recehtIy pun
usbod by the National Association OF WOOL Manu-
tacurers and more especially criticisihg us ueouc
lions MS 10 the available supply of The raw material
II Is evident that your criticism rests mann!
upon an erroneous conception of the plan upon
which these statistics have been made up for long
series Of years. There is. as you say an uhlortu-
nate typographical error In the tabular slaleh'ei'
OF wool retained for consumption In 1873; but IL Is
o prjnters error, az one can readily see from the
computations based upon the figures gwen ana II
does not affect the conclusions reached
You state that "a far more serious mistake has
boon made in the omission from the statement Of
the supplies of the last few years OF the entire
quantity formerly carried in warehouse. ana you
calculate that this error MAKES a difference OF
Il 9 SCI pounds In the supply since July J. 1873 add
ing that this as the vital point in the whole COM
parison. .
That YOU are entirely wrong in this will be ap-
haven't when 7 remind you that the figures given
IN the table are not those Of imports for consunp-
ton but are the gross imports. less re-exports IL
,orows that the amount In bonded warehouse at
the advent Of free wool is included in the totals OF
he
tjcular table in question does not attempt to give
nm exact statement Of the wool on hand at any one
time but simply shows the wool produced, I'M
ported exported and retained for consumption IN
each year It's character and its limitations are
distinctly indicated in its title II 1t were desir-
able to record the exact total supply Tor TEN
year or any other period the amount in ware
house II any at the beginning Of the period wouo
necessarily have to be included But this table
is prepared annually by dropping one year at the
beginning with the addition Of the new year at the
end which, for the purposes Of this particular
comparison. seems sufficient.
Again, you criticise the estimate because 1t omits
all reference 70 the 2,56OOo pounds OF wool i'm
ported since the close of the fiscal year on July J.
and prior to the adoption Of the new tariff on
July "a In reply, let me say that II IS necessary
In making these comparisons from year TO year,
TO adopt some uniform date of comparison ana
the close of the fiscal year Is taken because II was
the date adopted at the time when these annual
wool estimates were first instituted, twenty years
ago nv .he late George William Bond, who later
turned the work over 10 the National Association
because II Is the Government year, ana also De-
cause It happens TO be practically contemporaneous
with the marketing of the new domestic clip Inc
table of available supplies its face only pur-
ports to record the available supply OF wool for the
current year from January 1891 up to July J. 1884,
including the current clip. Your error In drawing
deductions from the table seems TO arise from the
fact that you have overlooked the very important
point that the total supply thus estimated 'o2'es-
AS pounds, plus the imports that may occur prior
to July l. 1925 all the wool available for the
use Of our manufacturers until the incoming OF the
clip OF 1895 a period. roughly speaking, not OF
twelve months but Of eighteen months. In other
words all the wool purchased by manufacturers Tor
use from January last to date rs included in this
total. Out Of what is now left, they must run
their mills until the new clip arrives. or else look
TO foreign sources for further supply, Having all
these facts In mind you will readily see that the
available supplies In comparison with the previous
year. are practically as we stated them. and not
as YOU surmise larger by 5000 600 pounds.
To make this fact perfectly clear. II may be
added that If the consumption for the first six
months of 1897 was only 200 10000 pounds according
70 YOUR estimate) the deduction OF this amount
from the total in sight since Jan, airy l-7o256S,42s
pounds-leaves only joOCoo,JOo pounds plus the i'm
ports subsequent to July last to to carry the he mills
clip rs available. This amount, IN view OF the
shortage Of manufactured stocks all over the coun,
try in view Of the comparatively small supply Of
imported goods, and in view Of the increasing pur-
chasing capacity of the people and their 0ng-accu-
mulatns need for Is oenevfd by
at all in excess of manufacturing requirements In
other words is expected t9at me mR0r IN p'Ge
available. Indeed. 1t has already been reached in
some grades ..,.., -, ,,o,,- comment.
about the diminished consumption OF recent years
that the estimate OF the National ABSORPTION At
supply 1t may be that the carefully prepared sta.
tistcs OF the supply In dealers hands on January
last were too low; Of that we have no means OF
judging. 1t is true, also, that this estimate takes
no cognzance Of stocks In manufacturers hands
on January l. 1897. But the real point In reference
10 the latter IS the fact that whatever accumula-
ton the manufacturers may have acquired during
dull times is not now on the market while, on the
other hand. there is a large body OF manufacturers
who now find II necessary to go Into the market TO
meet their current requirements, which they must
buy at current prices.
In conclusion. ! wish frankly 70 admit that any
statistical method which can mslead SO astute ana
expert n person the writer of The Tribune ed-
toTia may be defective. ! can only add that IL is q
method inherited from the man recognized as the
ablest statistcian in the wool trade; that II has
been accepted and understood in the trade Itself
for a great many years, and finally, that much
study with that end in view has thus far failed to
reveal any method whereby it can be materially
improved. ANY suggestions to that end by The