The Anderson intelligencer. [volume] (Anderson Court House, S.C.) 1860-1914, 1897-11-10
Future Course OF Prices.

interest 70 our TRENDS, we quote the
following from the circular of Messrs.
A. j. r. Landaucr &, Co., of Liver
pool, issued under date of 26th of
October. These authorities estimate
the current crop at 100000 bales.
The problem which we presented in
our last circular letter we recommend
again for your deliberation, adding
thereunto that the decline since then
has been Id. for winter positions: and
5-16d. on spot quotations; to-day's
values being gid. for Jan. Feb. deliv
cry. We stated at the time that the
anticipated large movement would con-
tinue to have a depressing effect on
the market, and until we reached a
point where we could approximately
estimate the supply, the price Of cot
ton was but o question Of "sentl-
ment. Let us now argue the posi-
tion from very conservative stand
point, and ask the question, Do pres
eDt prices discount a 100000
crop? (by which we mean a CONNER
cial crop. First we have to deal with
the smallest visible and invisible sup
ply for years past which existed on
the first of September, indeed so much
so, that even in America many mills
had to stop working for want of sup
plies, circumstance which has not
happened since the American war. In
Europe, both in England and on the
Continent, many spinners were ham
pered for want Of cotton; in other
words, the total visible and invisible
supply was probably 1,25O,000 less
than on the 1st Of September, 1894.
We take that season as criterion, for
it was during the early part Of the
Spring of 1895 that we experienced
very low prices. Next we must take
the requirements which we gave in
our last circular letter, viz: $780,
900 as minimum for the present
season, and in order that stocks at the
mills and in the various markets
should come up to those of ordinary
seasons (even leaving 1895 out of play)
we must set aside out Of the present
crop at least 100000 bales for that
purpose. AS matter of course this
100000 bales will be needed should
prices remain for some time to come
at about the present basis. The only
question on which we may be at vari-
ancc with you is the size Of the pres
ent crop: you may hold that the yield
of the present crop will ultimately
turn out 200 900 to 100000 bales more
than we think it is. On this point il
would be useless for US to argue, for
the reason that the world has been
discounting crop of 10a millions and
even more, for months past; it has
operated on that basis, and it be-
comes very difficult for us or anybody
else, at the present stage of the
season to convince it otherwise. We
have laid great stress in our last two
circular letters on the date of the frost
and we have, as you will no doubt
have observed, made due allowance
for the same, but we repeat to you
that whilst on the other hand fine
open fall such as we experienced in
1894-95 may add q great deal to the
crop, it needs a favorable season pre-
viously to make a fine plant. We
state emphatically that the yield per
| acre in 1894-95 was phenomenal one,
from the fact that from the early start
to the finish there was ample rain and
sunshine; in fact magnificent grow
ing season created fine plant followed
by an extraordinary fine and open fall
and unusually la, killing frost. On
the other hand we experienced this
season a bad and late start, and bat
| tied with drought, off and on, from
one section to another. It is quite
| true that we are dealing with a larger
acreage this season, but even with this
| it requires an exceptionally fine season
to give us yield Of even 10, 100000.
Having said this much on the ques-
| tion Of supply and demand, it re-
mains for you now to look at the gen.
eral conditions of trade in SO far as
they affect the price.
The Manchester trade during the
season of 1994-95 until February
showed great depression. On the
Continent good deal of short time
was going on, and in America financial
troubles from time to time were pre-
dominant. This season, in the two
former countries, trade is by no means
brilliant, yet it is superior to that OF
1SY4-a5, whilst in America we need
scarcely hold up comparison, you
being able to judge as well as we can
yet cotton was unduly depressed in
1894 up to February, 1898, for no
other reason than that speculation was
dormant; but once it came in, even
when the visible supply was immense,
prices gradually rose I'd. perlb. to the
following fall. This was caused chief
ly by cotton having gone below the
price of production, and we have no
doubt in our mind that if present
prices should be maintained or even
20 lower for some time to come. the
same state of things will occur before
long, only with the difference that we
shall not 90 quite so low, and that the
reaction will show itself much earlier.
These then are the views we hold ;
whether the market will go lower yet,
is simply matter of sentiment for a
short while at least, until such time
ne there are sirns of the movement in