Montgomery County sentinel. [volume] (Rockville, Md.) 1855-1974, 1897-10-08
Are High Prices for Wheat to Last

Journal of Commerce, are now ENJOYING
more prosperity Through exceptional cir.
cumstances" than any other class. Prices
OF grain are good owing to scarcity abroad,
and agriculturists find their incomes i'm
proved. The Journal, it will be noted,
speaks of Exceptional circumstances, by
which it means, probably, that over-produc
ton of cereals is now the normal thing the
world over and scarcity is not TO be looked
for in the future, unless circumstances are
exceptional" This may be said to be the
prevailing opinion-that the grain-produc-
ing area of the world is too great for the
grain consuming population of the world,
and will become even more largely excess.
i've when virgin soils in Argentina Siberia.
&c, come under cultivation. The over. sup.
ply and low price of wheat are in this view
to be permanent.
Such is not the opinion of Mr.. q. Wood
Davis, who has made special study of the
relation between the bread growing acreage
of the world and the bread-eating popula'
ton. In the October Forum, discussing "the
impending deficiency of breadstuifs," he
shows that since 1871 the bread eating pop.
ulation off the world has increased from 371,.
100000 to 5lO000,000, or 375 per cent,
while the acres under grain-wheat, rye,
spet, maslin and observation-disclosures increas-
ed from 25S 100000 acres to 279 400 900
acres, Or but rs percent. The present ample
supplies of grain are, accordingly, in his
view, but temporary, and an era of scarcity
and high prices is impending. population
and requirements" says the writer, "have
increased so much more rapidly than wheat
bearing acres that but for an unprecedented
succession of seaons, over worldwide areas,
conducive to exceptionally high over aver.
age acre yields, present conditions (of scar
city, respecting supplies and prices would
have obtained years since" The farmers
recent hard luck, in short, is an accident,
not the permanent rule.
The world at present requires, Mr.. Davis
says, for its needs at least 50000,000 acres
more than it has in wheat and rye. The
acreage deficit of the two principal bread
making grains is measured by these large
figures, while there is an even greater rela-
tive deficit in the areas now given to other
grains. The worlds grain-growing acreage
is not being added to in proportion to the
increase of "bread eaters" The yearly ad-
dition ought to be 100000 acres, but it is
much less. The idea that with the opening
OF the Trans Siberian Railway 50,O000,O00
acres will be added to the worlds grain area
is pronounced untenable Over half of the
cultivable part of Siberia has already been
occupied by Russian peasants. Prince Hill
koff, the Russian minister of ways, is quoted
as saying in Kansas City last October that
"Siberia never has produced and never will
produce wheat and rye enough to feed the
Siberian population" Argentina and Uru-
quay are said to be the only countries that
promise material additions to the grain area
and their development must continue to be
slow. Since 1884 the wheat area Of the
United States has diminished as much as
that OF South America has increased.
The low price of gram is attrib uted to a
succession of accidents. Chat scarcity and
high prices have not prevailed in recent
years is due" says Mr.. Davis, "to the har
vesting since 1889 of seven world crops of
wheat aud six OF rye, giving outputs so
much above the average rs to result, prior
to 1895, in great accumulatons that served
| to obscure the fact that 1895 and 1896 were
| each much below current requirements. -
The over-average product of the fifteen har-
Vests ending with 1896 was 100000 900
bushels, though four of the fifteen gave
Yields below the average 1t may be noted
parenthetically that the increasing poverty
of the Russian peasant, with declining
consumption of grain in Russia, has con-
tributed to swell grain exports from that
country, but this cannot continue indef'
nitely The food requirements of the 51O,-
100000 bread eaters of 1897 aggregate $780,
100000 bushels After putting aside 800, :
100000 bushels for seed, there will remain,
it is estimated, but ,590,000000 bushels for
consumption. In other words, but three
fourths of the required bread will be forth
coming. 1t follows that the present de-
mand will continue till August, 1898, and
probably longer. Wheat growing, if Mr..
Davis is right, is to be the paying industry
of the future-BGtt0. Sun.
IaF In RI ia