Arizona republican., 1897-10-08
THE NOYICES DID 1T
Why tho Prices Of Stocks Wslt
 Unexpectedly High
INEXPERIENCED DEALERS
Went Into the Field Got Scared
 and Withdrew

There Was 9 Consequent Reaction
 But Now Values Have Been Prop
 erly Adjusted and ars Mucn More
 Stable man Ever.
 New York, Oct. 7.-(Special) )-Dur- ing the past week, the course of the stock market has been irregular, with a continued drift towards lower prices. The .reactionary tendency that set in about week ago has been continued and a large amount of real izing has been effected with a cons1d- erable fall in prices. This tendency appears to have been due entirely to causes intrinsic to the position CT sneculation, rather than to any eX- ternal factors affecting values-all of which have been encouraging. As al ready indicated in these adVlces, the great recovery in the materiA conul- tions of the country at large have produced speculative excitement which has outdone itself. This spirit has gone from buying to buying in expectation of a range of prices that could not be reached in few days or weeks, but must wait upon the CO., operation of the conservative bull sentiment which in the long run al ways controls the course of values. The large profits made in the first three months of the advance encour- aged a class Of inexperienced outside operators to pile up their holdings through using their profits as mar gins, thereby producing a dangerous imitation which could only result in violent reaction.
 In this way, it has come to pass that a large amount of stocks have passed into comparatively weak hands. Operators of large means and more cautious methods have thereby been to a certain extent kept out of thS market They were un- willing to buy at the high figures ere ated by enthusiastic bulls unable to Aithstand reactionary influences; and preferred either to maintain a pas sive attitude or to encourage a pres sure that would reach stop orders or exhaust margins. In this they have been encouraged by the policy of the banks in keeping down their local loans in order to meet the large de- mands for money from the interior, and also by direct pressure brought +aSn orators who had inflated prices by recklessly extravagant purchases.
 There have been sound reasons for this conservative attitude. There is no dispute about the change in busi- ness conditions having very largely increased the value of securities. Nor is it questioned that the earnings of the railroads are very likely to ulti- mately reach a point at which even higher than current average quota tious would be justified. But conced- ing all this, it does not follow that it may be safely undertaken to real ize, at the presnt beginning stage of the national revival, the effects that are hoped for as the outcome of full CT developments of the recovery. Such anticipatory pulling takes too much for granted. Prudent and sue cessful operators prefer to keep in close touch with the march of events, rather than to assume the certain realization of the best that can be imagined Also, it is not to be over looked that there are some important contingencies in the future to which securities would be sensitive. The Cuban question is entering upon a new phase, and we cannot foresee what part our government may be called upon to play in it. The mys- terious action of the British govern meat in respect to silver and the ap- parent willingness of France to ne gotiate with us for some expansion are suggestive of a possible revival ot some distrust upon that very sen- s1tlve question. Ten weeks hence congress will reassemble, and it is c disappointment of the hcpes enter talned by the influential friends oi sound money. These are possibilities which do not encourage prudent mer to discount many months in advance the most sanguine calculations of the future. Besides, this season of the year is never the safest for undertal
 ing excessive bull speculations. From twenty to forty millions of currency has usually to be sent to the wes and the south, so that the reserve: are liable to then reach their loves point; and to force up prices of stock
 extravagantly in the fact of declin
 ing reserves is very unpromisins
 undertaking.
 These are the ideas that have latel, been gaining ascendancy in the sto1
 exchange. They have h6l