The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1897-12-27
EXPECTING A RISE
WALL STREET IN STATE OF SUS-
PENSE AND HOLIDAY DULL
NESS.
SITUATION FAVORS BULLS.
MANY IMPORTANT ELEMENTS VISI-
BLE WHICH POINT TO HIGHER
PRICES.
BETTER PROSPECTS FOR 1898.
Improvement Made During 1897
VIII BE More Than EquaIed
Next Year.
SITUATION FAVORS BULLS.
BETTER PROSPECTS FOR 1898
Special to the Globe.

NEW 1Ofh, lee. Z6.-ln MS weekly
review of the financial situation, Henry
Clews says:
In its general aspects, business at the stock
exchange does not vary materially from the
conditions existing since the late upward turn
in prices Some prominent operators, whose
buying started that recovery, seem to have
realized their profits and are now operating
in a transient off and on sort of way but no
longer constitute persistent bull element
The market is therefore dependent mainly
upon its instrinsic strength backed by the
moderate buying OF a bulllsh outside con-
tingent and the expectation of the rise that
usually attends the distribution OF invest
ment earnings at the opening of the year.
The situation contains some very important
elements faVoring speculation for higher
prices. The satisfactory aspects OF general
business are well maintained. According to
the reports from trade circles and from the
manufacturing centers, there is good reason
for expecting that the commercial recovery
OF 1897 will be more than equaled in 1898. Ad-
vices from the agricultural states indicate
the prospect OF a more active business than
has been realized for many years, and sug
gest probability of the liquidation Of an
important amount of farm mortgages, with
the effect of creating a demand from the
mortgages for other securities TO take their
place. The iron trade, which Is accepted as
the best barometer OF the condition of bust
ness at large, continues its remarkable in
crease of activity. The best evidence of the
magnitude of the current increase IN this in
dustry is afforded by the fact that the lake
shipments Of iron ore for 1897 amount to r.
100000 gross tons against 8, 900, coo in 1896
showing gain during the twelve months Of
2600,O coo tons, or near.y 80 per cent; and yet
there is a probability of a still larger move
ment in 1888 Our exports of steel rails and
railroad equipments and also of electrical
plants are assuming very extraordinary di-
mansions; and there are indications of an in
crease in the home construction of railroads,
to say nothing Of the undertaking of long
deferred repairs and improvements and pur-
chases Of rolling stock The continued fall
in prices has made 1t possible to export a va
riety OF articles for which we have hitherto
been unable to find a foreign outlet and this.
with other conditions, foreshadows the full
maintenance OF the increase in exports of
manufactures which has been steadily gain
Ing for the last two or three years. The
value Of this lies not merely in our gaining
new sources of trade but equally in the re-
lief which Is afforded to our congeSted home
markets, and the consequent better oppor-
tunity for the realization Of industrial profits
1t is not easy to overestimate the importance
Of this growth in our export trade. The total
foreign shipments Of merchandise for the last
eleven months exceed those Of the same pc
riod OF 1896 by 1856 900, COO and OF 1895 by $242
300, coo. This gain has been largely due to
our extraordinary shipments of breadstuffs;
but judging from the fact that our winter
wheat acreage sown this year Is estimated to
exceed last years by z per cent, while the
European acreage Is reported to be under that
OF 1896, there seems to be a probability that
next year also we may have a large surplus
OF wheat for export. Thus, so far as the bust
ness of next year may depend upon our export
trade, the outlook for business in 1898 is most
hopeful.
The operations Of the railroads continue to
exhibit an extraordinary increase of earnings
The gross traffic receipts of 131 roads for
November show an average increase of 20
per cent over those of 1896 For the first elev-
en- months Of the year 124 roads show an
increase Of $50, 800 600; during the first half
Of the period, however, the earnings showed
but slight increases, SO that most OF the gain
has been made within the last six months
Although there has recently been some con-
siderable irregu,arity in rates, the increase
on net earnings las been in a higher ratio
than on gross. Sor the month Of October
100 roads show a gain in net earnings ay-
eraging S.45 per cent, and in gross Of only
per cent For the first ten months of the
year the net business of 119 roads shows an
increase Of Hip per cent, whilst the gain
in the gross earnings was only 81 per cent.
This is q very satisfactory exhibit and evil
dences improved management in this class
OF investments.
The opening Of congress has had little Wis
ible effect upon the interests represented in
Wall street. Little new in policies was ex-
pected and little has appeared. The common
expectation was that the president would an
nounce a strictly business policy; and that Is
just what he has given, much to the salts
faction Of the people at large, who, above
ical agitatlors. The general purpose of the
presidents financial policy. and especially
his declarations In favor of the maintenance
of the gold standard. have awakened re-
sponslye chord among the conservative classes
at large and also helped confidence in our
prospects abroad. The intense hostility of the
silver cement in congress to this feature of
the message is a measure OF the estimate
placed upon the sound money policy Of Mr..
Mckinley. Vie has made himself a center
around which ne conservative sentiment of
the country may safely rally; which is an i'm
portant gain towards the procurement OF some
measure Of currency reform. Exactly what
form that action may finally take is as yet
far from certain. 1t is likely to conform
entirely to the measure presented by the
secretary OF the treasury; for. while his gen.
eral purpose commands considerable assent
vet the details OF his plan do not appear to
strike financial opinion the best that could
be devised. The plan OF the Indianapolis con-
yention is waited for with much interest
1t has doubtless been carefully deliberated
| after consultation with numerous versions
supposed to be well qualified to judge an the
subject; and it is likely to present the most
! advanced and most generally approved idea:
! in the plan to be soon submitted to con.
gress. Yet, after all, 1t is very possible thai