The herald., 1897-08-22
century in the height of speculative

century in the height Of a speculative
era"
Benner takes pig iron as his guide, al
though pork, cotton and other staples
have been freely used in making his ta-
bles On page 109 he says:
Pig iron is our north star to guide US
over the dangerous roads of commerce.
1t is the barometer of trade and as the
sudden falling of the mercury denotes
violent changes in the atmosphericai
world, so does the periodical decline in
the price of pig iron indicate panic, de-
preston and general stagnation in busi-
ness"
He reduces all prices in the leading
staples to cycles-that Of pig iron being
twehty-seven years, pork eleven, and so
on. From these for the fifty-four years
past he has worked out the conclusion
that they will return in the same order,
bringing panic, depression or both in
their train. Which is cause and which
effect is of no consequence in the calcu-
lation, though he has very correct ex-
planation of panics. On page ia he
says
Commercial panic is the reaction
from over trading and over expansion of
credit and confidence, and excess of COM
merce and finance. Political economy
abounds in theories to explain the cause
of panics 1t is not necessary to look
about for a cause. Commercial and
financial revulsions are the consequences
of many causes. Prosperity in
the aggregate creates general confidence
and expands credit and this swells the
prosperity, increases the demand for
more money, inducing banks to extend
their issues and loans to the utmost,
until the climax is reached. Then comes
the panic, the inevitable crisis and reac-
ton. The pressure to realize produces
decline in prices, confidence is lost, cap
ital, ever sensitive, withdraws, a run
commences on the banks, ending in
financial and commercial disaster.
Commercial revulsions are governed
by law beyond the control of man and
are confined to no creed, party or poll
tics"
''The panic of 1919 was in Monroe's ad-
minstration; that of 1887 in Martin Van
Buren's; of 1857 in James Buchanan's;
and of 1878 in General Grants"
mo governmental or congressional
subsidies, no legislative enactments,
| eeii iiio VI Soi ieiiNleS, HO llIldHcldi SyHQl-
Gates, convertible or interchangeable
bonds, no bribery of legislators or be-
trayal of constituents can arrest or
change their course.
when the period arrives for any
panic any breeze or signal, no matter
what reverses the engine, the times take
the downward grade, and there is no
general recovery until we hear pig iron
demanding 'Watchman! what of the
night?'
This ideal will have been standing
out upon the dome of the weather
beaten tower of time, gazing into the
dim vista Of the future for five Ions
years of disaster and ruin waiting fol
the period foreseen and predicted wher
the glimmer of the year 1878 can be dis.
cerned in the eastern horizon, not e
meteoric flash which illumines the nigh
with trancient and uncertain
glow, but the continued mornin,
radiance which is the forerun
ner of the full light and glory of
bright noonday-will then exclaim
Arouse, pig iron! Monarch of business
Come forth from the chambers of tn,
slumbering silence, the dawn of new
era is at hand. Hogs, corn and cotton
fall into line and start in motion tn,
wheels Of commerce, industry and trade.
1.-THE resumption of trade and industr.