Daily capital journal. (Salem, Or.) 1896-1899, 1897-12-01

net exports Of the year and dividing
by the assumed average population Of
the year. hOr the past five years these
estimates of production have been
nOtnriously at variance with the final
recorded movement, sometimes nearly
100, 100000 bushels out of the way, so
that as showing Of even the per
capita supply, the figures are widely
at variance with the facts. Even II
the data used were at all accurate, the
sho ing still would not be what the
official report calls it,consumptiOn per
capita, because the supply of the year
Is not all consumed la the year. When
crops are large, there is surplus
above requirements, which is carried
oyer in the form Of accumulated stock
tO be drawn upon when the Inevitable
lean year arrives. These fluctuations
In surplus carried oyer make Yalueless
the figures presented, so far as any
showing of the consuming ability Of
the people is concerned.
1t being impossible to secure an
exact statement OF wheat production
and of variance In stocks at beginning
and end of the period, the cOnsump-
tion per capita cannot be reached by
the simple process Of division = This
leaves as the only way Of approxima-
ting 1t the plan Of securing record
Of the actual consumption In suf-
hcient number Of typical families TO
fairly represent the conditions of
the whole people. Some twenty
years since, Mr.. j. r. Dodge, then
the Statistlcian Of the United States
Department Of Agriculture, tmade
such an Investigation, and the result
was given as approximating Al BUSH
els per capita. For a long period
this was accepted as the "ofiicial"
estimate, and, with 1t as the basis of
domestic consumption, the estimates
Of wheat production made by the
Department OF Agriculture tailed
very closely with what in the end
proved the recorded distribution of
the crop. Fearing In mind that the
estimate was made some eight
months before the facts Of exporta-
tion, commercial movement, aud re-
naming stocks could be known, this
substantial agreement was strong
evidence both Of the correctness Of
this assumed rate OF consumption and
OF the official estimates OF production.
The general accuracy OF this esti-
mate was never questioned until in
recent years and distribution on this
basis materially exceeded later esti-
mates of production. When that be-
came apparent, IL, with other eyi-
dences of inaccuracy, convinced most
OF those interested In crop estimates
that the later official eltimates OF
wheat production we're too low; but
there was a class who preferred tC
believe that the estimates OF produc
tion were still correct aud that the
fault lay In the assumed rate OF con-
sumption, or that at least there had
been sudden and marked falling of
Ia the actual use Of wheat for food iii
this country. The only fact advanced
To support this contention was th'
disag eemeat between the dlstrsbu-
tion on this old basis and the new
estimates OF production. Certainl!
no definite data were ever 'adyanceC
which supported IL. and the argu
ments presented seemed TO have littl'
plausibility In them.
| Bradstreets was one OF the author
itles which countenanced the ney
claim, aud With view OF testing II
position undertook an investigation
on It's own account. IL receiYed re
turns from li6S families or aggFegat
of Individuals lhotels, ete.l coverln
3o,2l7 people, and the Iconclusion wa
that instead OF less than a. bushel
per capita, aud data indicated 5.Ss
bushels, With lhei suggestion that Oh
resnltsfurthor upset those who elaia
that the accepted estimate Of Iwhea
consumption per anum is too higt
Il, recent years there has been n
special detailed gathering OF dat
bearing upon this subject, but IN tll
annual report Of the United State
commissioner OF labor from 1880 an
1891 there are published schedule
showing the artual consumption Z
certain articles or food Ia ssii FAINT
lies, comp islng i4,i5s people. Dat
coverItg iour aud bread are given e
1877 families, or JIs4 persons. Ia
81 lss of reputation Included ln the'