New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1897-09-29
THE BIG WHEAT CROP.

Much more than .'ucccss or failure OF private
speculation depends upon the correctness OF
wheat estimates. TO farmers IT Is matter OF
vast importance whether their crop commands
A good price. TO many millions who ma en-
nloyment in manufacturing articles FOR con
sumption in the agricultural regions it Is oil
vast importance whether the demand Tor sucn
articles is to De large or small. To merchants
traders and professional men dependent upon
the prosperity Of farming sections the diler-
cnce between good prices or poor for wheat
means great difference in their own earnings
and profits and consequently in their ability
10 purchase The latest estimate. that the Yield
this wear will amount 10 J90O00O0O bushels.
comes from the crop reporter who commands
most confidence in tie trade. and whose csil-
mates last year proved most nearly correct ana
it is regarded by many as threatening dsas-
trous depression in the price OF wheat. 1t IS
accompanied by the statement that consumption
will be 325, 100000 bushels and the requirement
for seed 5J,OOO,0D Bushels, While o9oOOOOo
bushels are said to he Brought over from last
year. 50 that 2G9O0o.O1o bushels would remain
for export But ia the form presented This
statement is misleading.
Nobody lmagnes that actual stocks at the
close Of any year after a good yield viii be re-
duced as low as they were July ]. when they
were smallest since July I. 1891. Al least as
much wheat as was then in the country must
be retained TO provide for the future and a
lar@er quantity will certainly be retained unless
prices 20 very high or. rs the next harvest
draws near. there Is a certainty Of another very
heavy yield Fol practical purposes, therefore,
at least the quantity reported Oh hand July /
oil iplar avail l,lp
for export. and properly a larger quantity.
G9.0G0O00 bushels being as little a. can Tea-
sonably be allowed for stocks retained by farm
ers in commercial stores ana IL the form Of
-four at the end Of good crop year. This
would leave actually available for export no
more than o000O0OO0 bushels. which is but
100000 bushels more than the average eX-
ports for the last four years Ii is not doubted
that the worlds markets viii need from this
! country much greater Increase Of supply IN
less foreign consumption Is surprisingly re-
duced
But the estimate also crrs n little il allow
ancc for consumption. which mus lc based
upon the mean population for the crop year, and
Mt the rate prevailing prior to the decentralization
OF official statistics would be about 33T.oM.0O0
! bushels This would reduce the surplus avail
els and in view of Tie foreign demand there
appears no reason 10 expect that such guam
tity would suffice to prevent good range Of
! prices during the crop year. Indeed with n
cargo of wheat actually shipped from New-lorl;
70 Argentina this week. and no possibility Of de
, terminiyg nj this date within 50.000.o0n bushels
what surplus for exDor; that country may have
after January |. 1t may fairly be considered
that the estimate in question justles quite high
prices until he crops of that country India
and Australia are ont Of danger
Whether the estimate VIII prove too high. as
II is considerably the highest We; made by any
authority regarded as worthy Of confidence. is
a oncstion about which opinions will probably
differ for some time 10 come. The receipts OF
wheat from Western farms. though quite large.
aud little larger than last year. hav" not a'
yet appeared fully to justly the highest eS-
peciations. On the other side II is to be con
sidered that the extensive and organized efforts
Of farmers 10 keep back wheat rs far as pos
sible, especially since the magnitude OF the