The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1897-10-22
Department. It was unfortunate that he
was not with the army in the Appomattox
campaign. LESLIE J. PERRY.
WASHINGTON, Oct. 20. 1897.
Election Probabilities Calmly Con-
sidcred.


The general indications of the campaign
and special Investigations made in all the
Assembly districts by both parties agree
in the suggestion Of n large vote for HENRY
GEORGE. He and his managers profess,
and undoubtedly with entire sincerity,
that their confidence in his election Is
stronger now than ever; but neither the Re-
publicans nor Tammany believe that there
is any solid justification for it.
Besides the distraction of Tammany votes
by GEORGE, there will also be a loss Of some
Democratic votes to Low. This number Is
not likely to be large, but they will serve,
so far as they go, TO divide still further the
Democratic vote, and to that extent will
initiate against VAN WYCK's chances.
| Putting together the loss to GEORGE and
to Low, how can the remainder left to
Tammany be enough to elect its ticket9
Unquestionably, the first requisite to a
reasonable examination is to estimate the
strength Of the George movement. Such
votes as GEORGE gets will be drawn almost
wholly from Tammany. Hence no reason
able estimate Of VAN WYcK's vote Is posi-
BILE until we have reached some conclusion
as to the proportions of the George move
ment; and accordingly 1t is hard to be-
lieve that the Wall street bets Of great
odds in favor of VAN WICK are other
than mere electioneering devices. That
he will suffer seriously from the diver
sion of Tammany voters to GEORGE Is
undeniable. GEORGES candidacy is sup
ported manifestly by a great part OF the in.
tense and enthusiastic Bryanite sentiment
which gave Tammany 1854 votes last
year and polled 225, 900 votes for BRYAN
in the Greater New York. That he will di.
vide and perhaps get the lions share of 1t.
How, then, can any sane man at all &C.
quainted with existing political conditions
look upon VAN WYCK's election as sure or
even probablel We question IL there is any
such man. Many men may have the hope
the absolute confidence is in none.
Lows candidacy suffered a blow from
the George nomination from which it can,
full assistance in filling up the Low pc
tition, but when their own hero became
a candidate himself all hands dropped Low
forthwith and turned in enthusiastically
to the support of GEORGE. He and not
Low is now the leader of the opposition to
political organization. The Low move
ment is swallowed up in the George
movement, so far as concerns that senti
ment. Apparently there remains to Low
only the support of the Mugwumps and
the few thousands of Cleveland Dem
ocrats and Republican deserters who will
cling to him to the last. The election
of Low may be dismissed from the posi-
bilities. He is not likely to come within
sight of the goal.
The election of Gen. TRACY is assured
under present conditions, il the Republican
strength is concentrated on him. The nor
NAL Republican vote of the Greater New
York, calculable according to the percent
age of the whole vote shown in past cleo
tions during a long series of years, exceed
100000. The loss in it due to the Low
candidacy will be small actually and pro
portionately, as we have said already, ant
that loss will be made up wholly or largel,
by Democratic votes for Gen. TRACY a
Individually the candidate whose election
is most probable, and who alone represent
the opposition to Organism, defeat o
which is recognized by every conserva
tive man as essential to the prosperity o
this community.
Looking at the situation thus dispassion
ately, Gen. TRACY is assuredly in the lead