The herald., 1897-08-22

in the year 1878 must go on; the Gibraltar
of hard times will be passed in 1877; the
mills and furnaces will start up; the
price of pig iron, hogs, corn and provis-
ions will be on the advance. Agricul-
ture, manufacture, mining, commerce
and finance will begin to prosper; the
industries of this country will be born
of new life, and this country will pros
per and advance beyond any nation
which has appeared in all ages of the
world
Elsewhere Benner says the depres-
lsion will be worse in 1876 and still worse
in 1877, which is exactly what happened
the decline from the great panic of 1879
lasting five years. Then things went up
with bound never known before into the
greatest prosperity that the country has
ever known.
After 1882 he predicts slowing down
for a while, and this occurred Though
there was no panic, there was a quiet
spell lasting several years. We must
not confound our boom with the business
Of the country, which was comparative
ly dull for a while when we were SO rap
idly selling town lots. Our buyers were
too often buying on money easily Dor
rowed because business was little slow
but not slow enough to disturb the money
market. On page 107 he says:
After 1888 the price of pig iron will
advance; all business will be prosper
| GUS; corn and hogs will be on the ad-
vance; agriculture and manufacture
will be active; all trades and industries
will make money up to the year 1891
when we predict panic that will not be
confined to the United States or this
continent, but will sweep over the worlo
like the panics of 1919 and 1857, and viii
be felt with equal severity in other coun-
cries.
| In Argentina and Australia it actually
| began at that time. 1t constitutes the
fifth in the series of the great panic.s nd
the tenth of those so well marked as to
call for an explanations over thirty years
ago. And all these were in eighty years
there being none until 1919. On page 1Ot
Benner says:
THE panics of 1919, 1887, 1857 and 1873
during this period of years, stand out
upon the pages of the history of ou,
country in their magnitude compared
with other panics as the planet Jupiter
compares with the lesser planets in oul
solar system. 1t takes pancs fifty-foul
years in their order to make a revolu-
ton or to return in the same order, the
present cycle of eighteen years will ersd
in 1891, when the next panic will burs,
upon us with all its train of woes"
1t is quite certain that this fifth great
panic has been the lightest of that series
Amy one Of middle-age can remember
that the depression after 1873 lasted five
full years, and that real estate and mos
verything else went steadily down unit
after the resumption of specie payment.
in 1878. During that time the best rea
estate, stocks and ircome-payirg prop
erty went stea dily down, which has no
been the case to such an extent this time
Two years ago there was some reviva
that might have continued but for th
impending election But after 1873 ther,
was nothing of the sort, ard real estat,
of the best kind in New York, Brooklyn
Chicago ard other solid cities suffered
far more than now. 1t is hard to say nov
that the value of good city property o
good. irrigated or sure income payin,
lard has suffered much in Southern Ca!
ifolnia. 1t is the wildcat and semi
wildcat, with which latter is alway
classed unproductive land no matte
how good it may be.
There are many who can remembe