Middlebury register. (Middlebury, Vt.) 1886-1937, 1897-09-03
THE SPIRIT OF THE PRESS.
THE RETURN OF PROSPERITY


prosperity" which it is claimed has so
suddenly burst upon us.
Not only is it assumed that we have
prosperity" in a substantial form, but
it is further assumed that it had come to
stay.
1t is not strange that bull spectators
on boards of trade and stock exchanges
indulge in such talk, for it Is their bust
ness to boom prices. But it is incom-
prehensible that grave, careful business
men all over the country-men whose
success depends not upon mere spurts,
but upon the maintenance of favorable
conditions year after ypar-should take
up and re-echo the cry without looking
below the surface to ascertain whether
the alleged prosperity of today rests
upon solid basis.
That there is a sharp squirt of specula-
ton in Wall street no one will deny.
That some mills and factories have re-
sumed operations after a period of idle
ness will be readily admitted.
That wheat has scored a substantial
advance in price is a recognized fact and
that the prices of a few other staples
have shown a slight tendency to rise
may be conceded.
But a spasm of speculation on the
stock exchange does not constitute
"prosperity." The starting of some idle
factories merely to replenish stocks
exhausted by several years of business
paralysis does not constitute "prosper-
i'y." \ rise of wheat, resulting from
famine conditions in other countries,
d)es not constitute prosperity. a small
fractional rise of other breadstufls either
IN sympathy with wheat, or as a result
of speculation. does not constitute pros
peritv." and most surely a rise in the
price of a manufactured product, as in
the case of crockery resulting from
higher tariff, falls long way short Of
"prosperity." When stocks rise as the
result of excited speculation, there is
always reaction to come.
When mills resume merely to replenish
exhausted stocks, they are certain to
suspend again before very long unless
the buying power of the people is in
creased.
When wheat rises in consequence Of
crop failures in other countries, it is an
abnormal condition which in the very
nature Of things must be temporary.
When the prices of other breadstuns
rise either from the the same cause or
merely in speculative way, that must
also be of short duration, and when the
prices of certain things are raised by the
imposition of higher tariff, it is posi-
tive injury.
While general business conditions are
undoubtedly somewhat better than they
were few weeks or months ago. the
condition of the wheat crops at home
and abroad is at the base of everything
substantial in the gain. If other cereals
rise, it will not be on account of their
scarcity. but because of the scarcity of
wheat.
Larger exports of wheat at higher
prices will, of course, add TO the purchas-
Ing power of the American people, check
the exports of gold, and perhaps for a
time turn the stream this way. To
whatever extent our other exports adj
vance the effect will be the same. But.
a. before suggested, the small crops of
other countries and the fair ones at home
are the sole cause OF this advance in
prices and all the advantages which
hey bring.
These advantages must necessarily lie
short-ived. So long as other nations
must he afflicted and actually are, we.
of course, accept with good grace any
of the benefits which accrue to us.
But as a matter of permanent and
general business, we cannot base our
calculations upon such conditions. and
as Christian people we should not wish
to do so. The chances are ten to
one that next year the wheat crops
of India, Argentine and Europe will at
least he average, and under existing
monetary conditions that means an eX-
port price of not more than 60 or Go
cents per bushel for us, and probably
even lower rates.
Every business man who Is now
shouting that "prosperity is here
should ponder these things we'll Let
him proceed carefully, and make the
most of his present opportunities, but
let him not suppose for moment that
they can last. If he will but look
around him he vii! see that no new de-
velopments are in progress, and that
there is nothing to Justify the belief that
we have begun a new and continuing
march of industrial improvement.
Least of all should the farmer be de-
ceived. For years the gold standard has
forced the prices of his products lower