Santa Fe daily New Mexican., 1897-10-04
THE WHEAT CROP.

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Wheat is undoubtedly one of the great
staples of this country and the price it
commands is of vast Importance, not
only to the farmers but to the general
business interests of the land, and more
than success or failure of speculation oe-
pends upon the correctness of wheat es-
Inmates. To farmers it is a matter of
vast Importance whether their crop com
mands good price. To many millions
who find employment in manufacturing
articles for consumption in the agricul
tnral regions it is of vast Importance
whether the demand for euch articles is
to be large or small. To merchants,
traders and professional men dependent
upo the prosperity of farming sections
the difference between good or poor prices
for wheat makes great difference in
their earnings and profits, and conse-
quently in the ability to purchase.
The latest estimate, that the yield this
year will amount to 59OOO0O0O bushels,
comes from the crop reporter who com
mands most confidence in tie trade, and
whose estimates last year proved most
nearly correct, and it is regarded by
many as threatening disastrous depres-
sion in the price of wheat. 1t is accom-
panied by the statement that consump-
tion will be 1876, 900, 900 bushels, and the
requirement for seed 55,OOO00O bushels
while 59,000,000 bushels are said to be
brought over from last year, so that $685.
100000 bushels would remain for export.
But in the form presented this statement
is misleading.
1t is hardly possible that actual stocks
at the close of any year when there has
been good yield will be reduced as low
as they were last summer, when they were
the lowest since 1891. At least as much
wheat as was then in the country must be
retained TO provide for the future, and
larger quantity will be retained unless
prices 60 very much higher, as the next
harvest draws near, there is certainty of
another large yield. For practical pur-
poses, therefore, at least the quantity re-
ported on hand July must be deducted
from the remainder available for export,
and properly larger quantity, So, 1000, 900
bushels being as little as can reasonably
be allowed for stocks retained by farm
ers, in commercial stores and in the form
of flour, at the end of good crop year.
This would leave actually available for
export no more that 20O,O0OOOO bushels,
which is but 100000 bushels more than
'he average exports for the last four
years. 1t is not doubted that the worlds
markets will need from this country |
much greater increase of supply unless
oreign consumption is surprisingly re-
luced.
But the estimate also errs little in al
owance for consumption, which must be
based upon the mean population for the
'rop year, and at the rate prevailing
prior to the Generalization of official
tatistics would be about 337,OOO,OO0
'ushels. This would reduce the surplus
vailable for export little below 19O,-
10000 bushels, and in view of the foreign
emand there appears no reason to ex-
'ect that such quantity would suffice to
prevent good range of prices during
he crop year. Indeed, with cargo of
7heat actually shipped from New York
Argentina this week, and no possibility
# determining at this date within So
100000 bushels what surplus for export
hat country may have after January l, it
lay fairly be considered that the esti-
late 10 question justiAes quite high
rices until the crops of that country,
ndia and Australia are out of danger.
Whether the estimate will prove too
'gh, as it is considerably the highest yet
lade by any authority regarded as wor-
~ OF confidence, is a question about
hioh opinions will probably differ for
'me time to come. The recei pts of
heat from western farmers, though quite
rye, and little larger than last year,
I'VE not as yet appeared fully to justify
le highest expectations. On the other
de it is to be considered that the extern
We and organized efforts of farmers to
'ep back wheat as far as possible, espe-
ally since the magnitude of the worlds
quirements became known, would
'turally prevent an increase Of early
iveries proportioned to the estim ated U
Grease of yield. This seems the m ore !
asonable, also, because the general I'm. i
ession has been created throughout 1
. country, for speculative purposes,
at the injury to spring wheat in three {