New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1897-01-27
AGRICULTURAL DEPARTMENT ESTIMATES.

The final estimates of the crop Of 1896 have
been given out by the Department Of Agricult-
ure. but should not go into circulation without
a warning. 1t is pity that these official re-
ports, which have Of late years ceased to be re-
carded as trustworthy by men engaged in
practical business. should pass into official and
other records as the best information regarding
agricultural production. No one doubts their
substantial accuracy respecting the yield OF
products which are not objects Of active specu-
lation. Nobody has found reason 10 dispute the
estimates regarding hay, potatoes or barley
The error seems proportional 10 the activity
of speculation. There is not much gambling N
oats or corn and Department estimates Of those
crops are generally considered approximately
correct Market speculation always turns chiei-
" toward cotton and wheat, and Of these very
crops official estimates are most discredlted
The Department estimates the yield Of wheat
IN 1906 NJ 27.6S4. 900 bushels. the acreage at
u. So 900 spring and 90 $4,000 winter wheat
and tho Weld per acre ut 124 bushels. against
1871 in 1895. Hardly anybody will suppose that
the consumption Of wheat by the people mas re-
Gently been materially less than in former
years. When the theory Of reduced consump
ton was offered two years ago by the statisti-
goes for ANYTHING refuted by such experts as
Mr.. Snow, of the "Orange Judd Farmer. Anu
II no satisfactory indication Of It's correctness
could be found in the year of panic, there Is
loss reason to give credit to it now. If the con-
sumption has not been materially below the
average. with the present population it would
no about 2S.OOO.O0O bushels per month. or TO
February about 19G. 900. 900 bushels. and with
els and the actual exports 103c0OOOO. with
some days of January remaining. would count
for $3.50. 600. 900 bushels leaving for five months
consumption actually less than would be re-
ouired for food, without anything for spring
seeding or export.
Everybody who notes the course OF the mar
kets knows that such an estimate OF yield must
be erroneous. No sane farmer would sell wheat
at current prices. nor wonld any sane trader
hesitate TO pay much higher than current prices,
If any such condition Of things were Thought
nossibIe as the Government report indicates.
Tho fact Is that the market concusively proves
the Government report entirely worthless as
or,donce for nroducers traders or consumers.
and IL the millions spent in supporting the
work of the Department cannot produce any
thing better than an entirely worthless result
the recruitment had better be abolished. To
reconstruct it and put its work into such hahds
that it may not be an object or contempt 10
those in the trade is one Of the duties OF the
coming Administration.
1t is not worth while to estimate what the
Weld of wheat was last year. Various trade
estimates, by men Of more or less reputation
are all much larger than the estimates OF the
Department. The official error Is generally at
tributed TO under-statcment OF the wheat acre
age. and it is natural to doubt whether, instead
of about 100000 acres in 1854 and 1s9l there
are now devoted to wheat only 34.Goo,Ooo acres.
The same source Of error IS generally supposed
to be the cause of official estimates OF cotton,
which nobody credits. But the cause Is minor
matter. The people who pay for work in THIS
Department have a right to expect results
which are Of some value 10 somebody