Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1897-10-18
Impossible as Yet to Predict Outcome
in New York Election.
BROOKLYN An UNKNOWN FACTOR
Just Now, However, 1t Would Seem
That Tammany Leads.
NOTES OF THE CAMPAIGN


is, therefore, possible to figure on the total
vote which will be cast on November ,.
Past records show that about per cent of
the people of New York city and Brooklyn
who register fail to vote or cast defective
| ballots. Estimated on this basis. the vote
cast in the first Greater New York election
should reach 52S, 76S. This is slightly less
| than the first estimates of the vote to be
cast this year, based upon the fact that
| four leading candidates are in the field,
and that unusual interest is being shown
| in the contest and the approaching cleo
| tionr The registration is about 10000 less
than i'll 1s96-a presidential year-but is far
ahead of all preceding registration in the
Greater New York territory.
Tammany claim that the regiStra-
tion is greater in the democratic wards
and lighter in the republican wards, and
assert that this presages an overwhelming
democratic victory this year. The demo-
cratic victory may come, but it is impossible
to gather and CLEAN much from the regis
tration figures. Political conditions this
year. owing to the changes in the lines of
| the greater city. and owing also to the
unprecedented shifting of the vote last
year, difficult to gauge.
Guessers Are at Sea.
A popularity of this campaign is found
in the fact that the first man you meet
| may tip Van Wyck the winner; the sec
ond Low; the third, Tracy, and the fourth,
George, but the chances are against your
| meeting successfully two men who will
make the same predictions upon the result
Of the campaign. In fact, the men who
have been accustomed to guessing on the
election in years past, and guessing ac-
curately, this year are all at sea. IL bet
tlng is any criterion, the chances may be
said to favor Van Wyck, for considerable
quantities of money have been placed upon
the Tammany Hall candidate, the ruling
odds being ~ 10 and 10 to & in his favor
1t is possible that the wish may be father
of the thought in this instance: that the
great majority likely to bet on an election
the saloon keepers, the followers of the
race track, and the men who haunt the
pool rooms-are in favor of change, and
IN favor of that change being made in
i-'famHaaAeeHallSd direction.
Nevertheless, there seems to be feeling
in the air that Tammany Hail has the i'll
side track early in the start of this mayor
atty race. This may be due in part to the
results of a number of straw votes taken
a large scale by the newspapers; votes
which seem to indicate the probable sue
cess of the ticket of the regular democratic
organization. 1t may be due to the belief
that revolt is due from the German or
SsnZations on account of the passage and
the enforcement of the RalneS law, and
the know edge that when the Germans and
the Irish join hands in an election, Tam
| many Hall ard the regular democratic or
ganization in this section invariably win.
Or it may be due to the belief that a reac-
ton from the 10000 majority given Nc
kinley last year is due to arrive just about
this time. OF course a thousand things
may happen before the close of the CAM
paign to change this condition of affairs,
but if the election should take place today
1t is to be feared that Tammany Hall
would win.
Tnmmnny Fighting for Life.
TamnaEy Hall is at present fighting for
its life-for it's existence as an organiza-
ton. Around the wigwam on 14th street
will always cluster a great many historical
associations. There is a splendid hall there,
pre-eminently suited for the holding of
political meetings. and there is large
amount of valuable property-property es-
timated in its intrinsic worth at hundreds
of thousands of dollars. Consequently. it
may be said that men will always make a
rendezvous of this hall for purposes of
political organization. But il defeated in
this campaign. Tammany Hall Will sink to
the level of Irving Hall. of Independence
Hall, of the County Democracy or of other
democratic organizations which have
flourisheG like the green bay tree in the
city of New York, and then passed into
state of gradual decline. But if Tammany
wins in this election it is not too much to
say that the influence of Richard Croker
and the organization will be extended over
the entire Greater New York territory.
Once dictator Of the city of New York, Mr..
Croker may be expected to plan the reor-
ganzation of the democratic machine in
the state of New York-a machine which
is now in rather bad running order and
which lacks for leaders since the with
drawal of Hill, Whitney and Flower. Once
the supreme master of the democratic par
ty in the state Cf New York, Mr.. Croker
will become a figure in national politics
second to none, though two years ago he
IS supposed to have departed for England
FOR the sake of avoiding the giving Of tes-
timony before the Lexow committee and
he has been bitterly denounced by every
paper printed in the English language in
the Greater New York territory.
The key to the entire situation, as politi-
clans figure 1t at the present time, seems to
be the borough of Brooklyn. 1t is approx
mately easy to guess what the borough
of Manhattan will do. Tammany Hail may
be depended upon always and ever to get
out its organization vote. X is true that
the nomination of Mr.. Dayton for controller
on the Henry George ticket will carry away
from Tammany Hall a large number of the
more Independent voters who in past years
have affiliated with Tammany Hall because
of the fact that it is the local democratic
organization of this city But the "dyed-in-
the-wooF' democrat-the man who votes the
ticket straight. no matter whether it is a
yellow dog" ticket or not-may be counted
this year, as heretofore and henceforta
forever more, to vote for Tammany's c.tn-
didate.
The strength of Henry George IN the bor-
ough of Manhattan can be estimated by the
vote cast in New York city for him us an
Independent candidate ten years ago.
The regular republican organization ex-
pect to be able to hold in line the organi-
cation vote of this city.
Mr.. Lows Seeming Failure.
Mr. Low, energetic as his campaign and
canvass have been, has not up to the pres
cnt time succeeded in making heavy in
roads into the republican organization so
far as the borough of Manhattan is con-
ctrned. He has inherited the old Cleve-
land "mugwump" independent vote of the
borough of New York and he has succeeded
in gaining something Of q following among
the Independent and even among the So
cialistic voters of the east side but that
he has succeeded in splitting the republi-
can organization on Manhattan Island In
two is no; for one moment to be believed.
But what will Brooklyn do? That is the
question that is on the tip Of every mans
tongue. Brooklyn. the city OF churches,
the city Of homes: Brooklyn which has al
ways been impatient of political dictator
Continued on Sixth Page.) ..