The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1897-09-09
COTTON PROSPECT
How Raleigh Cotton Men Re-
gard the Outlook.
DAMAGED BY DRY SPELL
CROP WILL PROBABLY EXCEED
LAST YEARS BY OVER 100000.
NO RISE IN PRICE ANTICIPATED NOW

NO RISE IN PRlCE ANilIlPAIEU NUW
A Shorter Crop Than Was Expected May Cause
the Price to Rise But it is Too Soon to Pre-
dict--Price in Raleigh Higher Than
in New York.
The absorbing topic of conversation
among the business circles of the city
now is cotton-what is the crop outlook
and what will the liking Of the South
bring on the market?
Conversation with number Of cotton
men in Raleigh yesterday clearly show
ed that they do not anticipate so large
q crop as they did even ten days ago.
This is because Of the continued dry
weather which has prevailed all over
the country. Very few cotton men
would express an opinion as to the price
this fall but they all freed that the
price on the Raleigh market would soon
come down to the price in New York.
The price here now is higher because
Of the local demand for cotton by the
mills in the State, but the supply will
be sufficient for these shortly and then
the price will fall to the New York
quotations.
Whether the price on the New York
market will rise or fall is another qucs-
tion.-One on which few cotton men will
express an opinion. II anyone knew
this their fortune would be made. The
crop is not sufficiently matured to form
any opinion on this point for so much
depends on the amount of the crop.
While the cotton men say that this dry
spell is doing damage still they think
that the crop in this country will reach
from 100000 bales to 1O,OO0,OO while
the crop last year was about 100000.
An experienced cotton man who is
considered one of the safest and best
informed business men in Raleigh says
he thinks the market here will open fairly
well in price compared with New York.
The spinners are anxious for cotton but
this demand will soon be supplicd-the
supply will be sufficient for their pre-
sent demands in about thirty days, is
his opinion. This gentleman says that
the farmers are less in debt now than
they were and are better able to hold
their cotton, which would continue high
er prices, but the effort to reap the bene-
fe of these prices will cause the price
to decline. He tn ks the outlook for
the Raleigh market good.
Another experienced cotton buyer says
the drought is doing damage but he
thinks the crop may reach over $500, 900
bales. When asked about the price nt
said, that everything depended on the
weather, continued drought in his opin-
ion may make cent cotton.
A gentleman who is thoroughly fami-
liar with the cotton market said he
thought the crop would be fully up to
the average. The cotton acreage has
age is probably larger than in 1890,
age is probably larger than in 1S90S,
when the crop was unusually large, be-
cause the number of bales to the acre
in 1890 was abnormal. The crop in 1894
was the largest.
Indian cotton will not effect the price
IN this country, he said because that cot
ton is Of such a poor quality that it
ever, when American cotton falls to 8
cents It can compete with Indian cotton.
He regards the outlook as still good
Notwithstanding the dry weather.
A party who has just examined the
crop in this and adjoining counties re-
ports that it is spotting over the coun-
ty and in some places there is anything
but a good crop ON account of the con.
tinued drought.
But unless present indications fail, the
cotton crop which is now maturing in
the south, will clasely approximate TO-
O0O, 900 bales according to reports.
Mr.. ii. X. Neill, one of the leading
statisticians Of the country on the sub
ject Of cotton, is authority for this state
ment. In 1894 Mr.. Neill made fore
east OF that years cotton crop which
closely Appropriated the actual figures
and since that time his estimates have
been relied upon to very great extent
by the cotton dealers.
In circular, bearing upon this years
cotton crop, issued within the last few
days. Mr.. NeiA says:
"At this moment the promise is equal
to any previous year in every State but
Texas, and on the present acreage, even
allowing that Texas should fall short
of her maximum production by 1O00,-
600, the outlook now is for a crop of ct
least 9,750O00. with 100000 to 1,UOO,-
600 more within the range of possibili-
ties. This figure of 9,75O,OOO is really
very conservative, for product per
acre outside of Texas equal to 1S94-'95
would give 100000 bales and maxi
mum for Texas would be 3,95O,OOO
bales, from which allowing 100000 off,
You would have a crop of 100000
bales.
"The crop is now so far advanced from
recent rains and heat that it will reach
maturity and be independent Of frost at
an unusually early date, and should we
soon have good rains in Texas, her crop
also would be near perfection, and the
possibilities for the total crop would
then be something enormous"
In view Of the prospective size Of this
years cotton crop farmers should not
commit the mistake OF holding on to
their cotton in the hope that better prices
will be offered later in the season. In
stead Of rising, prices may decline as