The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1897-10-20

n bale OF cotton to the acre can DC grown.
This ia practically the maximum amount
per acre, the minimum being very re-
mote from this. It Is established that
the average growth throughout the
whole of our cotton belt varies between
a bale to two and four.tcnths acres and
n bale to three acres of land, the frst-named
figure being that OF q year when the weather
conditions were uniformly favorable. AS
Stunning that the average rate OF production
this year will DO the highest on record, a
crop would be gathered Of barely II ,000, 900
bales. ELLISON, q Liverpool stntistician
of great prestige. who is a leading au-
thority on the consumption Of cotton and
the worlds cotton stocks, estimates the
American crop this year at 9,41o,0oo
bales, other estimates on this side of
the water being from 100000 to
TO- 900, 900 bales. II the crop meets
Mr.. NE1LL's expectations 1t will not
only be the greatest Of cotton crops,
but will have been produced with a
far greater avera ge yield to the acre than
has been shown in the past. 1t must
be said, also, that the amount of cotton
which has come into sight during the
present year thus far does not Justify
the prophecy of a yield Of from 10000, 900
to II 900, 900 bales. Since the ~beginningof
the cotton year 325 900 fewer bales of cot.
ton have como into sight than last year
in the same period, when the whole
years crop reached but s,75O,O00 bales;
though it should be added that the
carly movement is often deceptive, and
that the movement of this year is about
equal to that of 1894, when 0,900, 900
bales of cotton, the record crop, was grown.
There is no doubt that the movement has
been retarded by the yellow fever quaran-
timing at New Orleans and in many other
Southern cities. Frosts will probably end
the yellow fever, however, within a month
from now, and then II the amount of cotton
coming forward does not increase consid-
erably and remain increased, we believe
that there will be general discredit of Mr..
NEILL's estimate. Sooner or later the
lucky crop guessers at the beginning of
the harvest, whether of cotton, wheat,
corn, or of any other staple, whatever their
conservatism or however good their means
of forming an opinion, meet their Water
loo. The Financial Chronicle, our most
accurate and trustworthy commercial pub.
l~ication, was in the habit for many years
of estimating the cotton crop at the begin.
ming of the season and had a fine record of
successes in this regard. But the time
came when its annual prediction turned
out to be extremely incorrect, and, very
wisely, 1t stopped committing itself to
u early estimates.
Whatever be the state of the cotton man.
ufacturing business abroad, foreigners are
taking as much of our cotton this year as
they did last, and the English s~pinners are
really taking more, the exports up to the
end of last week amounting to 1896
bales, as against 71O,499 bales in the same
period in 1896, of which 3s1 ,7s1 bales went
to England, as compared with 376.762
bales in the former year. 1t is conceded
generally that the minimum amount of
American cotton which the world will con-.
sumo In the coming year Is 100000
bales. To meet this consumption and to
make up the deficiency in the worlds
normal reserve stocks Of cotton will re.
quire, obviously, IN American crop this
year Of not less han 100000 600
bales. Assuming that the crop reaches
that figure, holders of cotton ought to con-
slider whether the price at which cotton Is
now selling is not pretty low for a situa-
ton in which demand and supply will be
evenly balanced, with the hazards of the
new crop year yet to encounter, and with
the w~ell-known law in operation of the
strong influence of low prices toward an
increased consumption of 80 commonly used
a staple. Indeed, the question may be raised
most seriously, whether the prevailing
price does not discount a much larger crop
than the figure named. There is now no
reason such as there was in the panic Of
1894, why growers Of cotton should rush
their product to market, selling it for what
ever it would bring and selling so much Of
it at 30 low a figure that in the latter part
Of the cotton year the price increased more
than two cents a pound, even with the
largest crop on record and before the pros.
poets of another crop were known. AS the
succeeding crop neared its harvest it was
seen to be a short one, and another two.
cent rise occurred.
There is much matter here for cotton
planters thinking.