New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1897-03-13
e,. -o7 600 Ga2. 900. 600

Incl al
Trade Bulletin
7, ,s no. worth while TO discuss AT length the
Government report. 1t implies Consumption "'
lowance of only 3s9 bushels per capita " hicn -
moro than three quarters OF bushei' OF '''-VoV0
bushels smaller than the average mainta'heu ioi
many years according to official hgures' oeiore
those REPORTS were made crazy by the innuehce oi
farmers. organizations 1t has always been d
h,under in these reports. and ye, small one that
they have taken account of the increase o' oe
crease Of stocks not in visible supply nor YET III
farmers hands and this decrease MI lho'""''
reckons at 100000 bushels. ard Inc 'hioaso
Trade Bulletin" a, about 100000 bushels whether
the Government report has any merit VIII DC
srowr In July when the consumption OF apou'
40 oo 90 bushels for food and seed and the actual
exports in four months will he compared WI" III"
total supply on March l. said TO be no more ina"
1s 100 coo bushels. Absolutely ntcody III 'e CUM
try sunposes that such report will be found to
correspond with facts The trouble with nearly al
the crop reports that; in trying TO preserve some
sort Of reputation for accuracy in the past. men
have set ND explanations which are without known
foundation. and which continually return 10 COLI
found their current calculations
MIR THOMAN'S GUESS.
Mr. Tbornan guesses that the crop of 1895 was
Az 600 bushels. and then has to cut GOWN coii-
sumption in all 5l.22 900 bushels below inc ra'e
which has held good for many years In order 10
facts even then For the visible supply on July l.
1905 was about II $50 900 bushels. including Soopp
outside and with Mr.. Thomans allowance ol Only
az 900 900 bushels for yield the entire supply would
be $40 So 900 But there has been exported apout
liz oo 900 bushels in eight months and the quantity
found in farmers hands and in visible supply, ac-
cordng to Mr.. Thoman is 2OsOpcV bushels ana
the sowing Of winter wheat took 36OU.UU bushels
which would leave only l55 10000 for consumption
as food in eight months. and yet MI Ihonna' MIN
self after cutting down the consumption H"Nes u
1900 600 bushels for the same eight months. I"
.bou,d have reduced consumption TO about so IN
stead Of 8 95 bushels per capita IN oruei ~ io'o"
Gle his own figures with himself.
M ,rboman gives his report of Information from
ov over the country. showing that l42W~Vo Dushe.S
~ wheat remained in farmers hands March l. ~
& but fair TO say that other evidence con''hiS '
accounts more nearly than others as 10 some
states He allows for visible and available STOCK
E, ON orc bushels and the visible supply alone In
Guided 50 7s7 coo bushels. this Is obviously 100 low
an estimate for March /. when stocks are not re-
6uced az they are in midsummer other authorizes
allow 5000 90 bushels more With 2S.eWeH bushels
dec AIRED TO be on hand. he allows only lNoDW LOT
export but the net exports March l. 1871 TO January
7 1891 with the preliminary statement for Janu-
ary were 142 49, SIG bushels -four included and the
quantity in February about 100000 bushels
MAXI about 100000 bushels more than MT.
Tho nan allows But still taking his own figures.
400 1000 accounted for without any consumption
for food ort Of "a 900 600 on hand year ago and
l35 100000 raised last fall This leaves SD.Wn"~
bushels for n years consumption Of II $4,000 people
the mean population for the year according to the
Treasury. so that the allowance for consumption
had 10 be cut down below four bushels per capita
for food instead of four and wothirds bushels the
quantity allowed for many years. Even for the
last two months his figures contradict themselves
January he estimated 266 100000 bushels i'm farm
ers' and commercial hands. against 2O6.ooOoN March
J. decrease Of 6o0oOo 900 bushels. but at his own
duced rate the consumption in of the eight
months was &C. $50 900 bushels. and actual exports
for the two months have been 2Oo00eD bushels,
discrepancy Of over 100000
THE ORANGE JUDD FARMERS" FIGURES
THE Orange Judd Farmer" an authority at least
equally good allows 32 700 bushels for consump-
ton and food. which is apparently calculated on
the population a year ago. makes the exports 49,
900 900 bushels which is about correct. and allows
$4,000 900 bushels for seed and y 600 900 bushels for
commercial stocks visible. according TO THE Chi
cago Trade Bulletin" which Is said to cover more
points than any other commercial report. This
makes COZ 10000 bushels accounted for, and then
only l2iO0O 900 bushels are said TO be In farmers
hands in all 727, COO 900 bushels The supply year
ago on this authority was 100000 in farmers
hands and l01. 1900 In commercial stocks and 1t
estimates the yield at 100000 bushels and
marks that the excess of II 10000 bushels distribu-
conservative" In that case. 49, CO., 900 bushels
should be taken as the actual yield.
The reckoning of THE Orange Judd Farmer" ap-
pears TO be nearly correct consumption,
commercial stocks and exports. accounting thus
for 6B 10000 bushels during the year. against So
10000 In Mr.. Thomans estimate. If the latter Is
right as 10 farmers stocks the yield in 1896 would
have to be esoS q bushels more than Mr. Thoman
Orange Judd Farmer estimates unless some war
rant better than any mans guess can be given
believing wheat
creased from over 4S 10 less than I bushels per
recorded production of flour by the mills.
What the exports of wheat may be during the
be inferred from the course of events In other
years. when en-. the foreign demand was unusually
bushels. 100000 in the second half and 100000 in
Exports Hs' rose ABOVE c " buhes 5sc IN
the second half and 10000 In the last four
es and though in the last r0I half they Mere but
100000. in the four months March-June inclusive
100000 bushels went out in the second half and
over 100000 in the last four months AS the ex-
Of the crop year and about 100000 in the two
months II seems ms no, mpGoba6ss that in May
sSsse BfSSsy sSs u OF nghs for
abroad than have ever been made heretofore
THE EXPORT STATISTICS.
II was shown more than month ago that the ex
ports OF corn had been Il ,95O5S bushels in the hall
year ending with December. In January and Feb
ruary the exports have been 3,7159s6 bushels from
Atlantic ports. making over l07.72o0c bushels ir
eight months. whereas the greatest quantity eve
exported in any full year before was lo3.0O0
bushels Nor does the ou,go show any signs o
abating It was 100000 bushels in February
aaainst about l5.0oo.00o In January Therefore 4
seems not improbable the price OF corn continuing
less than half the price of wheat that the ship
ments in place Of wheat may be heavy until new
wheat comes forward. Yet IL would be unsafe 4
INFER that the foreign demand for wheat will
thereby be reduced below the figures above men
,ioned because the very fact that 160OOO bushels
" wheat and nearly 100000 Of corn have beei
aLen abroad In eight months discloses exten
~ needs in foreign countries never equalled ever
In ;Ssl-'s2, and that demand may continue grea
enough TO take many million bushels Of corn. an,
brsides about large a quantity of wheat ever
The famine In India and the needs in Australii
d South Africa. which have already taken man,