The San Francisco call., 1897-01-01
THE OUTLOOK FOR 1897.

1t is the general bel1ef among nnan-
ciers and business men throughout the
United States that the 1st of January,
1897 will mark a turning point in the
commercial record of the country. We
have lately passed through one OF the
most trying financial -epochs in our his
tory. Prices for most comm od1ties have
touched the lowest point ever known.
Agriculture and manufacturing have
been depressed and trade has been at a
standstlll. That normal speculation,
reasonably confined, which always ac-
companies healthy condition of trade
has been diminished almost TO the point
of extinction. In fact there has been no
speculation of any consequence for several
years, and while the mints have coined
more money than usual and the vaults OF
banks and other financial repositories
have been heavily supplied with funds, 1t
has been almost impossible to obtain
capital with which to embark upon new
enterprises. This gloomy state of affairs
for several years was due to nothing else
than general want of confidence.
But new conditions have arisen to
change all this and create activity and
confidence out of stagnation and d1strust.
For several months the outlook has been
steadily improving. 1t was known, about
the middle of last September, that the
success of the Republican party at the
polls would accomplish more in the way
of stlm ulating commerce than any other
agency, and as soon as the public became
satisfied of this fact business improved as
if by magic. Lines that had languished
became active; disposition to invest in
safe enterprises became manifest; money
became more accessible and at more reaon-
able rates of interest; mills that had been
idle for months started up; prices for
many commodities advanced, and with
this appreciation appeared rush to buy
goods and replenish depleted stocks. and,
in short. the whole financial and COM
mercial complexion of the country under
went an almost complete transformation.
The rising tide OF prosperity was by DO
means confined to the more densely popu-
lated sections of the East. 1t was felt in
Ca ifornia in unmistakable form. 1t
showed itself in renewed activity in wool,
hops, dried fruits, hides, leather, provi-
sions, wheat, barley and -four, and, in
brief, in almost all of the principal staples.
The purchases of wool, wheat, raisins
and dried fruits were enormous and this
immense commercial current continued
until the approach of the holiday season,
when business quieted down all over the
world. But while it lasted we did fine
business.
+ The Iull is the usual December relaxa-
ton, and is probably temporary. 1t is
generally expected that the turn of the
year will witness revival that will usher
in new period of prosperity, which may
last for some years. There is widespread
confidence that the incoming administra-
ton, if not fettered by pernicious partisan
opposition, will place American trade on
a permanently prosperous footing. Re-
invigorated by this belief, the commercial
elements of the country are already
making their plans for lively times
ahead. All signs point IN that
direction. The balance of foreign
trade, SO long against u.s. is now in our
favor, and London has actually been bor-
rowing from New York by drawing bills
against credit, the transactions on this
account having footed up an enormous
total Indeed, these credits and the ex-
port bills now held in New York make a
total of $4,000 600. This is expected to
offset the adverse balance of trade that
usually appears in the first quarter of the
year, hence it is not expected that we
shall export any quantity of gold during
the next three months.
Every business man understands what
this means. 1t signifies that more gold is
coming into the United States than is
going out. 1t means that We are selling
more goods to Europe than Europe is SELL
ing to US. 1t means just so much more
money in circulation in the United States
just so much more confidence, and conse-
quentlv just so much more willingness on
the part of capital to lend itself to new
enterprises. The effect of this will be far
reaching. Trade will be stimulated in all
quarters OF the country, and not nook OF
corner will fail to feel the electric thrill of
renewed confidence