The representative. [volume] (St. Paul, Minn.) 1893-1901, 1897-10-27


and wage earners generally are not
richer, are not buying more, and the
expected increased demand for manu-
factured goods for ordinary use is not
increasing. So we have price reces-
sions, and price recessions mean an in
crease of failures. And further reces-
sion in prices is promised
This is not bright prophecy, but
we do not make it with the ghoulish
glee of the pessimist who gloats in dis
aster. We would rather make a cheer
full prophecy but conditions do not war
rant We warn men to prepare 4or
contraction in prices SO as to minimize
the losses inseparable therefrom. The
unvarnished facts are that the failure
of the food crops in France, in Eastern
Europe, in India, Argentine and Aus
tralia, made an increased demand for
our food crops and led to a general ad-
vance in prices. A similar cause, fail
ure of food crops abroad, led to an
advance in prices for agricultural pro-
ducts at this time last year. This will
be seen by reference to our tables
showing an advance in the index num-
ber for breadstuffs from $3.50 on July
1, 1896, to 68.46 ON January /, 1897, and
an advance in the index number for live
stock that did not eliminate until last
spring. But this increase in prices did
not bring more money to our farmers
for two reasons: first, because they had
disposed of the better part of what they
had to sell before the advance in prices
came, and second, because the wheat
crop was short. Consequently no in
creased demand for manufactured goods
materialized. Such products went on
falling despite the advance in agricul-
tural prices. And then with the break
ing of the present year prices for agri-
cultural products began to fall for men
looked forward to the new harvest year
to supply their wants.
But the new harvest year, that is ~.le
present, turned out worse than last, and
when this became apparent prices co IL
menced to mount upwards. Hence the
rise in prices for food products dur
ing July and the very rapid rise during
August. But now again men begin to
look forward to the harvests that will
be garnered in the southern hemis-
pheres in December next. And those
harvests promise we'll. So the upward
tendency of prices for grain has been
checked, wheat falling despite the dis
appointment Of the wheat yield in our
northwestern states, corn falling de-
spite the acknowledged shortage of the
crop. And because of this shortage in
the corn crop it is very probable that
this years crops will bring our farm
ers no more, perhaps less, money than
last years, and last years crops
brought less money than the crops of
the year before. So the probabilities
are that there will come no increased
demand for manufactured goods from
the agricultural community, surely there
will come no increased demand from the
cotton region of tine south.
Therefore there is no reason to look
for an increased demand or better prices
for manufactured goods in the immed
late future On the contrary, there is
reason to look for lower with the ap-
proach of next years harvests, for
there is no reason to suppose that the
crops in Europe next year will be be-
low the normal, there is every reason
to expect that the crops in Argentine
and Australia to be garnered in the
coming winter will be bountiful ana
with such crops prices for agricultural
products will fall, farmers will suffer
in credit, will not dare to increase pur-
chases even if they could; then will
come lessened consumption of manufac-
tured products on the farm and plan
tation and hence lower prices for such
products.
And in this connection let us say that
our farmers, even the most favored with
bountiful wheat crops, have not had
money to reduce their Indebtedness by
the great sums of which we are told.
Thus we are told of the farmers Of
Nebraska paying off millions of mort
cages Millions of mortgages have in
deed been cancelled but they have been
cancelled by the mortgage companies
foreclosing the mortgages. On investi-
cation we find that more new mort
cages have been made in Nebraska
during the present year than have been
paid off, The mortgage Indebtedness
of Nebraska is $318,0O0 greater today
than it was a year ago. So we see
there has been no reduction of farm
Indebtedness in Nebraska save by fore
closures. And reduction of indebted
ness in this way indicates anything but
farming prosperity Farmers who have
lost their all by foreclosure sale are not
promising purchasers for manufactured
goods Of course these foreclosure
safes are the results of defaults not
in this year but during the last three
or four.
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