The Black Hills union. [volume] (Rapid City, Pennington County, Dakota [S.D.]) 1889-1904, 1897-11-12
Is NOT PROSPERITY.
SUIT SPECULATION ON THE
STOCK EXCHANGE.
Present Price Of Wheat Must Neces-
sarily BE Short Lived and Where
Will We he Then:-Must Strike with
Vigor.

II Is amazing to nOTt"hoW many high
" intelligent men take a purely SUI
perticial view of economic and business
matters.
In nothing has this been more strik-
lngly manifested says the National BIZ
mtallist, than in the talk OF business
men II trade journals about the
prosperity which it is claimed has
SO suddenly burst upon us.
Not only is it assumed that we AVE
prosperity" in a substantial form, but
It has come to stay.
1t is not strange that bull spectators
on boards Of trade and stock exchanges
indulge in such talk, for it is their
business to boom prices. But it is IN
comprehensive that grave, careful
business men all over the country
men whose business depends not upon
mere spurts, but the maintenance OF
favorable conditions year after ear
should take up n re-echo the cry
without looking below the surface to
ascertain whether the alleged prosper
ity of today rests upon a solid basis.
ho IliClC Is q ZIG u Spull " SpS>
ulation in Wall street no one will deny.
That some mills and factories have
resumed operations after a period of
idleness will be readily admitted.
That wheat has scored !; substantial
advance in price is a ~recosnlzal fact,
and that the prices Of a few other
staples have shown a slight tendency
to rise may be conceded.
But a spasm OF speculation on the
stock exchange does not constitute
prosperity The starting of some
idle factories merely to %replenish
stocks exhausted by several years OF
business paralysis does not constitute
prosperity A rise of wheat, result
ing from famine conditions in other
countries. does not constitute pros
perity.' A small fractional rise Of 9TH
err breadstuffs either in sympathy with
wheat, or as a result of speculation,
does O constitute prosperity" and
most surely a rise in the price of a
manufactured product, as in the case
of crockery. resulting from higher tar
if, falls a long way short Of prosper
ity." When stocks rise as the result
of excited speculation, there is always
Q reaction to come.
When mills resume merely to re-
plenish exhausted stocks. they are Ger
tain to suspend again before very long
unless the buying power Of the people
is increased.
When wheat rises in consequence Of
crop failures in other countries, it is
an abnormal condition which in the
very nature of things must be tempo
rary.
When the prices of other breadstuffs
rise either from the same cause or
merely in a speculative way, that must
also be of a short duration, and when
the prices of certain things are raised
by the imposition of a higher tariff, it
is a positive injury.
While general business conditions
are undoubtedly somewhat better than
they were a few weeks or months ago,
the condition Of the wheat crop at
home and abroad is at the base of
everything substantial in the gain. If
other cereals rise it will not be on &C
count of their scarcity, but because Of
the scarcity OF wheat.
Larger exports of wheat at higher
prices will, of course, add to the IT.
chasing power of the American people,
check the exports Of gold, and perhaps
for a time turn the stream this way.
TO whatever extent u other exports
advance the effect will be the same.
But, as before suggested. the small
crops of other countries and the fair
ones at home are the sole cause of this
advance in prices and all the advan-
tages which they bring.
These advantages must necessarily
be short lived. So long as other ma
lions must be afflicted and actually
are. we. of course, accept with a good
grace n of the benefits which accrue
to us.
But as a matter of permanent and
general business. we cannot base our
calculations upon such conditions, and
a Christian people we should not wish
to do so. The chances are ten to enc
that next year wheat crops of India
Argentine and Europe will at least be
average, and under existing monetary
conditions that means an export price
of not more than 60 or IS cents per
bushel for us, and probably even lower
rates.
Every business man who is now
shouting that prosperity is here