New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1897-08-20
WHEAT.
THE PROspECT OF LARGE DEMAND
GOVERNMENT ESTIMATES OF
YIELD DISCREDITED.

ination of the records may be in ORDER ne 'oN-
eminent estimate of production this year Is about
100 O0O 900 bushels smaller than the CONNER
ca estimates deemed most reliable, ana as the
supposed deficiency Of wheat from other sources
of supply is only about 1o0WoWo bushels. II
seems TO be necessary first to judge whether
the Government report deserves credit Inc
complete returns Of exports during the last rs
cal wear have now been published My esti-
mates were 14J. 100000 bushels and the official
returns show net exports Of wheat. -four in
cIuded. amounting to 145.0S2.GlG bushels. Add
ing visible supply and half as much more at the
end OF the year. and the quantity required Tor
seed. with the allowance of i2-3 bushels Tor
consumption on the Treasury estimate OF popn-
lation. and deducting the visible supply and half
as much more at the beginning OF the year 'feie
results known distribution Of 4o''lS2'il"
bushels from a crop which the Government CYL
mated at 427.GSi.3lG bushels.
II is nothing now. this grave dehciency'
Stocks Of wheat must be reckoned from the low
est point that being most accurately Known
They are lower now than a any time since July
/ 1891 The official returns Of exports ana seeu
in these six years amount to -" ,22"' o-" BUSH
ele. and the consumption at the Official rate long
maintained would amount to l9'",'ooo" nush-
ole which exceeds by :,.n,WWOu bushels the
aggregat, of the yield for these years as re-
ported by the Government II the new Secrc-
tarv of Agriculture wishes 10 distinguish NM
self he has only To bring the Government e-tl-
mates within JNOOO.OpO bushes per year OF the
fact Last year the difference was about 3D.
5NtigN) bushels 1t is assumed Of course. mat
the c1nsrmption for food has not waterway
changed and while no evidence whatever e%-
ists that It has. there is much evidence that the
change If any. has not been of ma'crlai I'M
portance.
II may be assumed with the unhesitatns APP
proval Of everybody engaged in the wheat ana III
the milling trades that the Government reports
for the last six crops have been about :'1oo"""
bushels in error and this deficiency mas oc-
Cured almos; entirely in the last four years '''
ovorage has been nearly Nl.0vlpVo busheis per
ycar No one has any excuse. therefore, ior
sipposing that the official estimate Tor iS'' j.
within SOODONW bushels OF the truth. because
the Government records are made up each year
on the basis OF a report ID percentage Oh increase
or decrease compared with the year preceding.
II the returns have been about SoV""" push-
ols out of the way Cor four years. they could not
70 more near the truth this year. unless speelai
means had been taken to reorganize the service
which telcgraphlc reports indicate may be dohr
hereafter bu. has not yet been done.
Thus the presumption is that the Governments
oytirna:e for 1891. being based upon the per
.entage OF yield in previous years. Is something
Ike SoO0OWn bushels too low. The current
lradA reports make ii from looOWW~ to 40
OoOO 600 bushels too low. but reported changes ID
condition within the last month appear likely
10 lessen that difference. IT is quite clear tha'
wheat starts the new year with not much STOCK
On hand but with crop probably exceeding ny
ABOUT Ia OOoWD0 10 1Si.OW.Wn bushels the
ouantitv raouircd for consumption as food and
seed that quantity being ."h;0ioW" bushels
We exported during the crop year Just closed
Ilj.OOO ONO bushels and there Is every ndca-
ton that .he foreign demand will be larger with
in the current crop year. II is even pronape
that il may be as large as in lS92 namely.
t91 900 600 bushels or possibly as large as in
1891 namely. 30 OOo 900 bushels. If il should
reach either figure. high prices for wheat would
not be unnatural
A consideration Of much Importance remains
The exports Of corn were only 62,WN.WV bush
els from the crop Of 1891, hut last year were
about 116MNOUN bushels. and are going on at
about the same rate There is a large surplus
brought over from last year. and. while the crop
OF this year Is not definitely known. there IL much
reason 10 suppose that 1t also Is Of fair maGni-
tude The price Of wheat. therefore, appears 70
depend this year largely upon the exports and
the price Of corn. unless the wheat yie'd should
prove equal to or should exceed the current
commercial estimates
II ANYBODY wishes to dispute these estimates,
he has first 10 take the face that the stocks Of
wheat on hand July I. 1891 and July |. 1897.
being both unusually low. could not have DIFF
fered much more than the 9,W.UW bushels al
lowed on the basis Of visible supply and one
half more at each date. and second that the ex
ports less imports of wheat and -four. HG.29I,-
O29 bushels in the six years. must he increased
by about 327 OOO,NO bushels. the quantity off,
clally allowed for seeding and i does not mat
tor much whether little more or a little less Is
allowed. There is required some kind Of evil
dence. not vague guesses. but definite proof that
| consumption has decreased during the last four
wears and he's decreased much more than it did
during the years of depression following the
ranic Of 1873. when the consumption AZ no
time half bushel per capita smaller than In
previous years Of the utmost prosperity. In
| that connection the milling reports have to he
| considered. which show that the actual output
| OF -four from the most important milling centres
has not indicated any appreciate decrease in
| consumption
Secretary Wilson means To make his Depart
J ment a credit to the Government. He has to be-
! gin by sweeping out Of the way the entire con
! spiracy Of false reporting introduced by previous
J officials and 10 find people who will give him
news somewhere within fifty million bushels OF
the truth II he cannot. his conduct Of the De
/ partment will fail TO reflect credit on the Admin
istration or himself. W. NJ G..
! New-York. August IL.
ADVANCE IN THE PRICES OF SALT
Saginaw Mich. Aug. ls-The Michigan Salt As
ISOLATION has advanced the price Of salt in al
markets OF the West cents barrel. and In IN.
= home markets cents barrel which brings IN,
price up relatively the same in all markets. Th'
n,w prices are follows Packers. IS cents, No
T teem 80 cents: No steam. 81 cents: No. granu
I lated q cents a barrel; dairy and solar remain a