The times. [volume] (Richmond, Va.) 1890-1903, 1897-10-12
WILL VIZ HAVE Two-noLLAR
MHEA1?

I hHtt'tf"f
grain situation has attracted much atten-
ton.
Mr.. Davis maintains that after Europe
shall have exhausted all possible supplies
from the harvest Of 1897. and such crops
ne may be harvested prior 10 Juiy. ISIS,
there VIII be a deficit OF the equivalent
Of ,ooO0o.0)0 bushels OF the bread-making
grains. with no resources except meager
remainders from former harvests and
with no substitution possible unless
Europeans can be induced 10 eat bread
made from Indian corn.
According 70 Mr. Davis. between the
years OF 1921 and 1889. the worlds seasons
were 20 equablo and wheat acreage was
so well proporiloned TO increasing world
requirements, that prices were compare
lively constant. within this period
prices ranged from sl.2o to geo per bushei.
but in 1859 and after that time prices fen
rapidly until the year Of the Russian IA
mine.
Mr.. Davis then goes on 70 say that had
tho harvest Of 1852 not been followed by
one stil larger in 1851. and that by other
crops Of equal proportions in 1857 and 1883,
the decline in price would have been ar
rested. for the consumption was then as
it Is now increasing more rapidly than
were grain bearing acres, not an acre nav
ing been added TO the worlds wheat ana
rye area since 1884.
The New York sun quotes this much OF
Mr.. Davis article and adds some most
interesting comments Of its own.
The Sun says that the enormous crop
OF 1882 and Of the years that followed up
10 1896 were so much above the average
in acre yield. that the over average pro-
duct of these fifteen harvests was more
than 1,200,OOo,OOO bushels. This IN addi-
ton to the large crops OF rye.
The sun argues that although the
world is not now producing enough
wheat for its annual consumption the
deficit has not been noticeable because
it has had such a large reserve from
which 10 draw
Coming down to the present time the
year 1sg.-'gs, it says that the requirements
Of the 5lO.O0o,OOO bread eaters in the world
will aggregate l.99OO0O0oo bushels while
TO meet this demand there will be APP
parently but $4,000 900 bushels after set
ting aside 32OO0oo00 bushels for seed. 1t
follows, therefore, says the sun. that
but three-qua rlers of the required bread
can be provided. unless larger draughts
than now seems possible can be made up
on reserves already reduced TO the lowest
point consistent with the safety Of the
exporting nations. And this in conclu-
sion:
TO comprehend the present situation
with regard to breadstuLs and It's bear
ing upon the prospects Of our western
farmers, the following facts. brought out
by Mr.. Davis, must be kept steadily N
view. First. although the worlds out
put Of wheat in 1891 is Several hundred
million bushels less than the worlds re-
quremonts. acre yields have been bat
little below the average. Secondly even
an average yield from the acres now en-
ployed would he 275.O00 900 bushels less
than present needs, and the greatest crop
ever grown would not equal them
and rye progressively increase year ar
ter year by more than 40.0O00lO bushels,
not an acre has been added 10 the ag-
rreCate Of the worlds broad-bcaring
area since 1884. Lastly, an acreage de-
felt exists equal TO the supply of as
many bread eaters as have been added
20 tho worlds population IN the last
twelve years.
The Sun, therefore agrees with Mr..
Davis that there is no likelihood that
the worlds supply Of bread stuns will
ever again meet the worlds require
n,ents, unless Indian corn be substituted
largely for wheat There Is no hope for
big supplies from the country 10 be OPEN
Cd up by the Trans-Sibcrian railway as in
all Siberia there are not more than 80
100000 acres that are susceptible to cult
vation at I'll and much more than half of
these are already employed IN tie pro-
duction Of food staples.
TO sum it al up. II the figures above
given are reliable, and we take It that
they are, it would appear that the low
price Of wheat has resulted not from the
so-called decentralization of silver. but
because OF immFnse crops in certain
years. more than the world could con-
sumo, with the consequence OF a large
surplus which increased every year until
within the recent past
But in the meantime the population Of
the world has been growing while there
has been no increase in the Grain area
with the result that the surplus has now
been practically consumed If this is
true, there IS q good prospect not only
for dollar wheat but possibly for two
dollar wheat within the next several
years.