The Houston daily post. [volume] (Houston, Tex.) 1886-1903, 1897-01-03
CROP ESTIMATES.
No Definite Conclusion Yet Reached
as to the Yield.
IT WILL be UNDER NINE MILLIONS.
That IL the General Belief. Though
some Think II VIII &c I'm Elk
cess of that Number.

With four monthe OF the present cot
ton season ended. II would seem probable
that some reliable estimate OF tho total
crop could now be made. On the contrary.
however, opinions vary as much now as
they did a month aso and some estimates
diacr by a milsion bales.
The last market letter of Atwood Violet
& Co. of New York contained the follow
ing Interesting facts and fgures In regard
ito the port receipts, and the prospects
for tho remainder OF the season.
Enough Is now Indicated 10 show that |
there Will have been marketed by January |
!. about o.stp,UV pales. against 4.sA. ~ last
year ana b.4tivs5 In The season OF ls9l-a2. |
when the crop VAS s,1oG9. Alter De- |
cenper OF thut season. mere was mar |
ketcd 2,oSs2S, whereas after this month |
there must he man kcted In the remaining |
eight monks OF TINS season about 97Oo.OpJ |
10 reaiize a crop OF s,,Uo,Vvo TINS shows, |
therefore. how not improbable II Is that |
me current crop might not be exceeding |
s.oNW. Win any taihng OIL In receipts, |
after this month. compared with January |
10 August. inclusive IN 1872. would make
such estimates popular. The average
movement December 81 10 August 81 inciu-
sive. IN the hast sixteen years, has been
5vaS.l,3 bales, 1he average percentage In
| sight at dhe end OF Dcoempci In same PEE
| riod. was 400 II 6.30o.oV0 bales, which Will
| approximate the amount IN sight on the
| then II would Indicate a crop OF S.I500O0.
| 1t Is generally conceded, however. that
| th.s crop has been marketed unprecedent,
culy last. anu consequently, b,3p.WO
| should represent a larger percentage than
| Il per cent. at the eno of December. and.
| likewlse, u smaller crop than 100000 bales.
| our auvIees from Texas ARC chat receipts
| are on the eve OF decided curtailmsnt
| there, a telegram from Bryan. Texas. say
| ing: Last weeks receipts 10 per cent I'M
| der previous week. Exhaustion this Bcs-
| ton seems at hand" Another correspond
| ert advises that his Information points to
u large increase in cotton acreage Tor next
| season. The same advices are sent here
| from other sources. Any further decline
OF moment however. from present values
might cause a change in the aggregate IN
| such intentions.
Mr.. ii. Pasch. tho eminent French sta
tisticIan. wrote as follows in O recent let
ter from Havre:
The size of the stocks in the thirty-onc
| named towns in the interior of America
points TO some holding back. and II IL only
natural TO suppose That In the hundreds
of smaller towns and villages. az wei us
ON plantations. there Is kept u correspond
ingly larger supply than usual. Besides, 1t
ls probable that rhe top crop and after
growth. which are avowcdly large, wall
furnish protracted receipts next spring. II
II were not for these two reasons should
feel obliged 10 avow that the crop move
ment does not lntterly bear ont my pre-
vious estimate of g.3bpDoo growth, or about
10000 commercial crop, Even so. l
modify Jt. however. in the following points:
In the AtlanIics. i count The bale now at
4lo pounds not dnstead of 40. leaving
unchanged my previous estimate OF 165
pounds, production per acre; In the CUR
states i count the bale now al 17b pounds
net dnstead of AID. aud Increase my
previous estimate of 100 pounds production
por acre TO l75 pounds. In Texas and the
Indian Territory / count the bale now at
400 pounds net dnstcad of 4I2), and | de-
crease my previous estimate at 220 pounds
production per acre to 10 pounds My
previous estimate OF A,5oo,VoO acres leave
unchanged,
TO resume calculate now the crop as
follows: Total growth. 9l5o,0D bales. or u
commercial crop OF about 9,O5pOOO bales,
unless the COTTON Is kept buck at the end
of the oeason.
TOO much of the stun at present" how
ever, may be corrected later on by a
smaller crop movement, II II was coupled
with larger deliveries TO. the mills: but.
as said above, the second of the reasons
of tho decline ig precisely the circumstance
that deliveries are dragging, on the con
tincnt there are serious complaints OF
stock of cloth and lack OF demand. The
exports of cloth and yarn during Novem-
Der from England have been less satisfac-
tory, the effect OF hhe East Indian famine
may yet be felt at Manchester, and in the
deliveries TO the American mills nothing
is to be discerned as yet of the effect OF
the. coming boom.
Then. too, will come TO reinforce the sit
uaion the undoubtedly small Bast Indian
crop, for It's figures begin to get important
only In March. It was IN March. 1880,
push up cotton prices Il may
be that then. too the reports of large,
acreage. which are sure TO come. will be
hushed by the consideration that this
years large increase in tho acreage did
not, after all, produce a. bumper crop.
Edwin r. Violet of New Orleans writes
under date Of December 81:
Analysing the 100000 bale crop es-
Inmates on The basis of previous experience
We ind than ,he average percentage OF
the crop in sight December IL for the past
ten years has been 1898. this would afford
yield this year of $4,000 bales Select
ins from these ten years the five which
centage marketed is 1000 this would ma Ike
| this crop 9,ON, 900 bales. In other words, TO
make the 100000 crop we have TO admit
that the movement has been unusually
| slow, and that the crop instead of being
an carly one. hns been a late one. The
first OF these propositions IL 20 affirm that
the scarcity of money increases the
struci traffic: tho second Is wholly at va
rance with the August and September re-
ceipts.
We viii enter January with 100, 900 bale
| shortage on the 1899 crop of 1900 O00
bales. hence to make a crop OF the same
| proportion we not only have to overcome
I that deficiency but for the balance OF the
season. equal that movement. The per-
| centage of that crop moved up to January
was rather below the average. and the
ratio thereafter was an ascending one, ths
crop must show the same conditions TO
give the Same results. IL would seem.
travagant IDEAS OF yield in estimating
values.
A feature OF interest will develop later
sirabc COTTON. These viii tend to ehe eoH
7 or rather widen the difference between
contracts. and spots. as deliveries will
likely be made OF this unsaleable stun.
COTTON.