New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1897-06-24
TIE EVIDENCES or IMPROVEMENT.

TIE EVIDENCES OF IMPROVEMENT.
The pessmsts who are laboring to persuade
people that every prospect Is gloomy ana that
business Is as bad as ever have one advantage
They point to prices Of products, In many classes
as low as have ever been recorded. and urge
that low prices are in themselves proof of busl-
ness depression. They touch the feelings OF the
farmer when they tell him that there can be no
prosperity for him when farm products are
cheap and they catch the ears of many work
ingmen whose wages are graduated in proper
ton to prices Of products by showing that II
those products were not cheap wages would
be higher Even mistaken cause gGiDs some
strength when 1t is able to use facts Tor It's
purpose and the facts do undenably prove tnat
the country is not now as prosperous ms II was
before the election of 1902 But 1t is not much
better than a shabby trick TO submit such evi'
dence In answer to the claim that there has been
n distinct improvement since last year. Nobody
claims that the height Of National prosperity
has been reached or can be reached until the
mischief done by bad Democratic laws has been
repaired.
Low prices always have two distinct causes
coincidlng full supply and inadequate demand.
large but failure Of crops in other countries
caused an altogether Unprecedented demand for
the American product, so that higher prices
ruled than had been known for six previous
years. During the last year the wheat crop has
been smaller, and yet fairly large, but the for
eiCn demand has been about S0OO0O0O bush
els less than in 1912. At the same time
the Weld of corn last year was beyond all prece-
dent so that prices Of grain are low. Yet the
price of wheat has averaged for the last two
months higher than in any month or last year
prior to November excepting slight excess IN
February: higher than in any month in 1870, eX-
cepting a slight excess in June; higher than IN
any month in 1894 and higher than in any
month of 1893 after Cleveland's inauguration
excepting a slight excess in May.
There have been noted evidences of late that
manufactured products We're advancing. not
largely nor in all instances, and yet enough 10
show a tendency toward recovery after long de-
preston. But it is not reasonable to expect any
sustained Improvement in prices of textile prod
nets until uncertainty regarding the tariff has
been definitely removed. Moreover, the demand
for manufactured products cannot reach its max
imum until the labor OF the country Is fully en-
ployed. and at a scale Of wages somewhat higher
than that which now prevails. This Is precisely
the meaning Of the statement that the country
has not vet recovered the high degree Of pros
perity which prevailed five years ago. The vast
majority of the people live by wages. and their
expenditures are limited by the wages they re-
celve The wages in most cases are limited ny
the fulness of employment, and where rates
alone control they are rarely as high as they
were five years ago But 1t Is also the fact tha'
employment is much fuller than IT was last
wear and the people have more to spend ana
are actually spending more, as all commercial
records show.
The precise difficulty which remains can be
better illustrated, perhaps, by noting the STATE
of the iron industry than in any other way.
The production Of material Is very large-hot
quite as large as It has been In times OF the
highest prosperity, but more than enough Tor
the present demand. Ample evidence Is gwen
each week of the gradual increase of demand
and as il increases more works are put III opera
ton or more men are employed, but yet there Is
some accumulation OF unsOld stocks or pig,
which depresses its price, and the demand 1ali'
below the capacity Of works. SO that competition
for orders depresses the prices OF finished prod
ucts Yet such Il change as appeared IN the
summer Of 1895 might in a single month crowd
all works to their utmost capacity ana SET prices
rising. The slow but steady enlargement or the
demand for products IS proof that things, are
moving in that direction. and not with sense
less speculative rush. but with prudent wait
ing for the actual development Of demand when
gives hone that the upward movement when II
comes will not be short-ved and followed by
disastrous reaction. Much the same state or
facts exists I'm many other industries. And the
greatest industry of all is already beginning to
harvest crops which promise to be unusually
large.