New-York tribune., 1897-07-22
WHAT RECOVERY WOULD MEAN.

Prosperity is coming, as business men believe
who have been starting more works 1or hohihs
pasr. So operators in securities believe. VINO
hovo nermitted no reaction worth the name for
two months. Large crops are substantially as
surpd and these alone go far to make large
demand for manufactured products from agrl-
cultural States. Heavy exports are already SO
far assured. in the judgment of experienced
bankers that exchange against the future move
ment is freely drawn. There is not trace OF
reason to fear monetary disturbance Tor months
70 come In view of these prospects, in which
;hr most cautious business men are constantly
showing their confidence. it seems entirely JUS
tihable to expect an expansion IN BUSINESS III
consumption. and in such revenue as depends
upon the general prosperity That increase ma!
be greater than many imagine If the course OF
business only answers fairly to the expecta
tCns cherished.
This period IN every respect thus 1ar closely
resembles the one Of waiting, of slow recovery
and then of wonderful progress when 1ohoweu
spec:c resumption. The weary period of wait
ing for that event was most trying, though SLOW
Improvement began in 1878 when success was
guaranteed but some months before II actually
came rs like Improvement has appeared since
crease in volume Of payments through clearing
houses in 1879. compared with the previous
wear. rose month after month as follows: April,
1oS per cent: May, 40.6: June, 16.2; July, 2o'9'
Aucust 4jo: September 3G.G; October, GO;
November SIG; December GS.2 per cent, ana
then the first half OF 1880 exceeded the hrst
half of 1879 by 494 per cent. Prices OF all
products rose on the average nearly ~ per
cent from May 1. 1879 10 January ], lSSo, Tor
the demand became so great that all the works
In the country, though crowded to their utmost,
could not meet H.
Nor was this vast expansion without n SUD-
s,aptial reason Enforced economy and busi-
ness caution had denied the country for four
fun years its natural increase Of business. The
volume OF business was smaller In 1878 than 1t
had been in 1874 or 1875. When recovery came
il brought not merely the volume of business
which had been done In previous times of pros
perIty. but the gain proportioned to growth in
population and productive power which should
have been realized in the years Of depression
Tins the volume of exchanges through clearing
houses outside NewYork in 1880 exceeded the
amount at the same cities in 1875 by $1,000,
100000. or about % per cent, while at New
York the increase partly due to speculation was
Y per cent. SO business has now been de
pressed since 1892, and last year the EXCHANGES
outside New-York were $2,30O,0OO,OOO smaller
than In 1892. But In that year they had In
creased during the five previous years no less
than 400, 100000, or nearly third Full re
coyery should bring not merely the business
done five years ago. but some psrt OK the natu
raj Increase since that time
Some idea Of what the normal increase ma!
be in the volume Of business can De gainet
from census returns, which show from lss'
10 1890 an increase in manufacturing produc
tlou of s9.37 per cent, Notwithstanding the fac
that prices Of all commodities had declined
2443 per cent in he ten years, so that at th'
values OF January, 1880, the increase In tel
years would have been 124H per cent INT