The Houston daily post. [volume] (Houston, Tex.) 1886-1903, 1897-11-15

ton growing, and this despite the fact tina
the outlook for the business Of cott0f
manufacturing In this country IL excellent
that the stocks Of cotton goods on hant
have been greatly reduced and that wbal
ID known a. the statistical position Of cot.
| ton Is very strong. The worlds visible
supply Of cotton. as complied last woek By
the Financial Chronicle. was i6s,079 bales
less than on the same week IN tctOber
1896; 994,646 bales less than IN the CORE
spending date In 1895. and S07,3I6 bales
| less than in 1894. AS the United States
| produces nearly all the cotton In Tue world
about six-seyenths OF this deficiency Is 10
be credited to the American stocks.
| The decline in the price OF cotton has
been caused primarily by the belief that
| the crop which will come into sight during
the cotton year, begun on September !.
| will be an enormous one. II Ii known that
! the land devoted to cotton growing In this
country this year Is 24000.000 acres, an
increase of 100000 acres over last year.
1 While the weather conditions have not
| been entirely favorable during the season,
they have been generally So Nearly three
| fourths of the crop has been picked the
| operation having been facilitated by the
unusual warmth and dryness OF the fail
months, and there Is no doubt whatever
| that very large amount of cotton Will
| come upon the market before the LIST OF
| September, 1898. The estimate ct its GUAM
| thy now having the greatest influence Upon
the trade is that of Mr. Henry Neil. tho
head of a prominent cotton exporting firm
in Liverpool, who has been reinar kably
fortunate In his crop estimates for The last
two or three years Mr.. Neill's house is
an English one. having branches in Liv-
erpool and London. and his estimates have
weight with English buyers of cotton. He
declares that fhs years cotton crop will
be at least l0.300000 bales and may run
into something like 11.500.000 bales il
=, tch Hptu n 10
realized, the present low price of cotton is
reasonable. Another depressing influence
equally as great Is the hard times II at
have come upon the English spinners, tits
being due to the plague, famine, and fnan-
cal troubles in India and other countries
where the product of English .ocms is
sold AS two thirds of the American cot
ton Is sent to Europe, the condition Of bust
ness there has a much more important
bearing on the price of Gotten than does The
condition of business here
On the other hand, while 1t Is certain
that the crop will be large one. conserva-
tive men In the cotton trade are skeptical
about it's reaching any such vast quantity
as Mr. Neill predicts. The amount of cot
ton that can be raised from q given guam
tity of land varies with the character of
the soil. In some bottom lands OF excep-
ticnal fertility In Louisiana and Texas a |
bale OF cotton to the acre can be grown. |
MS ~ pIdCtiCuily tllt dihouHe
per acre, the minimum being very re- |
mote froy this. 1t is established that the |
average growth throughout the whole OF |
our cotton belt varies between a bale TO |
two ard four-tenths acres and bale to |
three acres of land the first named figure |
being that of year when the weather |
conditions were uniformly favorable AS |,
Stunning that the average rate of production |
this year will be the highest on record a |
crop would be gathered Of barely 10000 |
600 bales. Ellison, a Liverpool statisti-
clan of great prestige, who is leading |
authority on the consumption of cotton
ard the worlds cotton stocks. estimates
the American crop this year at 9,41O.O0O
bales. other estimates on this side of the
water being from 100000 to 100000 900
bales. If the crop meets Mr.. Neill's ex-
pectations it will not only be the greatest
of cotton crops, but will have been pro-
duced with far greater average yield |
to the acre than has been shown In the
past. 1t must be said. also, that the
amount of cotton which has come into
sight during the present year thus far
does not justify the prophecy OF a yield
from 100000 to II 100000 bales Since
the beginning OF the cotton year 325. 900
fewer bales of cotton have come into
sight than last year in the same period,
when the whole years crop reached but
., 100000 bales; though it should be added
sh'b VIC cdiiy movement is utpE QecED- |
tive. and that the movement OF this year
Is about equal to that Of 1894 when $780,
600 bales Of cotton, the record crop, was
grown. There is no doubt that the move
ment has been retarded by the yellow fever
quarantining at New Orleans and Ia many
other Southern cities. Frosts will prob
ably end the yellow fever, however. with
in month from now, and then il the
amount of cotton coming forward does
not increase considerably and remain in
creased we believe that there will be gem
eral discredit fMr Neill's estimate.
sooner or later the lucky crop gtiessers
~ the beginning of the harvest whether
II cotton wheat, corn, or any other staple
whatever their conservatism or however
GOOD their means of forming an opinion.
meet their Waterloo. The Financial ,
1hrcnicle our most accurate and trust
worthy commercial publication was in ..
ne haplt Tor many years of estimating
ne COTTON crop at the beginning of the !,
eason' ana had fine record of Sue
.is IN TINS regard But the time came
'neh Its annual prediction turned out ,
o be extremely incorrect. and. very wiseIv
'" sa''9 e
Wha'evor be the state of The cotton '
business abroad, foreigners !,
IRE taxing as much of our cotton this wear
y tney did last and the English spir ners
re reaiiy taking more. the exports I'd tn A
De END of last week amounting to 700 62s 7
a es, as against 7lo,499 bales in The same d
'erlou IN 1896, of which BOOST bales went b
Q England, as compared with 376.7 1859 bales o
u the FORMER year II Is conceded e.nsr- h
ny that the minimum amount OF Amer, n
au cotton which the world will consume +,
we cunning year is 100000 bales 10 a
"a, 'ms consumption and 10 make up the IL
eh,lthcy In the worlds normal rrs.,ve 81
,o'k OF cotton will require, obviously. an h
no, can crop this year VI not less II an p
,,oVo'Vot bales. Assuming that the crop d
"a mes that figure. holders of ,e,ton a
uSft to consider whether In, nrica a. s,
,n'el cotton Is now selling is MT p-etty Il
Nv TO- situation in which demand and
a,rl VIII he evenly balanced. with the
aaa!us OF the new crop year yet to on t
,unter, ana With the well-known law in d
peru'ion OF the strong influence OF low CT
Us toward an Increased consnmpt'cn of Ell
aestio'l may be raised most sarious,v
ne,hei the prevailing price does ..or die,