The Saint Paul globe., 1897-10-15
OPERATORS BECOMING ALARMED
OVER THE RAPIDLY DECREAS-
ING SUPPLY.
STOCKS IN NORTHWEST Low
FULLY 25,OOO,OOO BUSHELS LESS
THAN WAS ON HAND A
YEAR AGO.
HIGHER PRICES ARE PREDICTED,
As Eastern MilIers Are Strong Bid
ders for the Stock Still in
Farmers Hands.

If wheat shipments continue at the
present rate, it is only question of
a few short months when the supply
in Minneapolis will be practically eX-
hausted, and operators Of the big mills
in this city will either have to close
down or ship wheat in from
by men who are in position to know
what they are talking about.
Of course it is altogether improbable
that the cereal will be imported, for
two reasons, say prominent millers.
First, they could not ship wheat to
Minneapolis, pay the freight charges,
grind it into flour, and put the product
on the market to compete with mills
in those sections of the country where
the local supply is equal to the. demand.
And again. even If the millers wished
to import the cereal it would be an eX-
tremely difficult matter to purchase 1T
in large quantities. as the crop in the
different European countries this year
is about 100000 bushels less than it
was last year.
Secretary Rogers, of the chamber OF
commerce, gave some interesting fig
ures bearing on the situation. From
the last crop the Minneapolis mills
turned out 13,5O0,000 barrels of flour.
For this they used approximately near
so, 600, 900 bushels of wheat.
"a year ago there was in stock In
Minneapolis 100000 bushels more than
there was on hand at the beginning OF
the present season. This was surplus.
Duluth had 100000 bushels more than
she had this year, and in the country
elevators and in the hands of the farm
ers throughout the Northwest there
were 25,OO0,000 bushels more of old
wheat from the crop of the previous
year than they had this fall.
You will readily see from these fig
ures that there was in the Northwest
last fall at the beginning of the sea-
son about 4S,000,000 bushels of wheat
more than we had this year. The crop
this year is probably about lo,0O0,0oO
bushels larger than it was last year, on
account of the increased acreage.
Taking credit for the 15,000,OO0 bushels,
this years excess over last years
crop, it still leaves surplus of 25,Ooo'-
0O0 bushels for last year. Or, in other
words, at the beginning of the crop in
1896, there were in the Northwest %
O0O,O 600 bushels where, at the time the
crop of 1897 was first commenced on,
there was not one.
'rThus far we have shipped more
wheat out of the Northwest than was
shipped at this time last year, and the
demand today is as active as 1t has
been at any time, with the prospect
that shipments will continue as freely,
compared to other years, up to the
close of navigation, as they nave Deen
so far this season. The result will be
that when winter sets in, we Will nave
ai,t- wheat less
in the Northwest than we had at the
same time last year. 1t means just
one of two thingS-we must either snip
less or continuing the shipments at
the present rate, close down the mills.
Last summer the shipments did not
amount to 25, 100000 bushels, conse-
quently if we should not ship another
bushel, the mills could probably be kept
running.
but, of course, there will be plenty of
shipments made and large ones too. The
mills of New York and other Eastern states,
as we'll as those of Illinois and other Middle
states, have depended for years on our wheat,
and the operators will bid against our mill
ers- The result in all probability will be
that the price will go so high that local mill
ers cannot afford to all the time, and
will be compelled to shut down.
The worlds production this year is about
125, eco 900 bushels more than 1t was last.
The wheat production of 1898 was so much
below the amount consumed that one-third OF
the worlds surplus used in making up
the shortage. This shows that the surplus
will again be decreased before the end of
the crop season. So must necessarily
have smaller worlds surplus to carry over
this year than we had last. The only possi-
BILE change there can be in this calculation
would come th1 ough the harvesting of larger
crops next winter and spring in the Southern
hemisphere.
''It Is possible that the Argentine republic,
Chile and other countries in that part of the
world may have a sufficiently large wheat
crop this winter and spring to relieve the
situation to certain extent, but certainly
that would have no effect the local situa-
ton
c. A. Pillsbury was disposed to say little
about the matter. To an inquiry as to wheth
er or not the story was true that there would
not be enough wheat left in the Northwest to
run the mills during the winter, Mr.. Pills
bury said:
81 think you may safely state that there
will be a shortage To just what extent it
will affect the millers 1 can't say, but, with
shipments being made they have been
for some time past, the closing down of the
mills seems inevitable. | do not mean to
say that they will shut down long at a time
l can't say as to that. But they will not
be able to run regularly unless the scientists
discover some chemical process of making
the cerela''