The Dalles daily chronicle. [volume] (The Dalles, Or.) 1890-1948, 1897-10-14
THE FARMERS GOOD FORTUNE.

A month or two ago the two gener-
ally regarded as entitled to most con-
fidence were about 3O,O00,O00 bush
els apart; now one reckons yield of
58O,OOO,OO0 and the other 589,0OO,-
900 bushels, though the two state
ments differ as to acreage and yield
per acre. Both exceed the official
estimate by more than 120,000,00O
bushels, and the course of the market
sufficiently proves how little conf
dence is given to estimates based on
erroneous accounts of acreage car
ried forward for years past by the
department, which it has not ye: re-
constructed, Were there supposed
to be any possibility that the yield
of wheat would prove less than 48O,-
100000 bushels the price would not
be tagging below 81 bushel, for all
estimates of foreign needs are sup
ported by an export demand which
continues unusually large for the
season.
In the fiscal year 1692-'93 the ex-
ports of wheat and flour were 1922
100000 bushels, of which 81 100000
bushels went out in the first quarter.
This year the exports in the first
quarter have been over 52,000,000
bushels, and foreign advices indicate
a shortage 1OO,OOO,OOO bushels great
er than usual. In the last four years
the exports from this country have
averaged slightly over 45,OO0,O00
bushels, and were slightly more than
that quantity last year, so that the
increase in foreign deficit would i'm
ply need of 245,OOO,O0O bushels
from this country unless foreign con
sumption should be restricted, or the
crops to come in after January 1st
should exceed expectations.
The markets not only discard the
Ol1Cldl SSIlLdGCSg DuG SN1dSuGlJ LII
cline to accept the highest figures
as probable, because the price has
been depressed by realizing of great
speculative pools, and yet has not
fallen at any time below about 93
cents. When it is considered that
no such price has been realized in
Septe mber or October since 1891,
when the foreign demand took over
225,000,000 bushels from the only
crop which has ever exceeded the
current estimates for this year, it
must be accepted as the judgment of
the market that the yield has been
large enough to provide about as
great surplus for export as was
shipped in 1892. If that quantity,
192,000,00O bushels, should be found
to suffice with some decrease IN for
eign consumption, the crop would
have to be 5S4,OOO,OOO bushels to
meet the demand without further re-
ducing stocks remaining at the end
of the crop year, which were the low
est July 1st for the last six years
Any prospect of material reduction
in the stock carried over would tend
almost irresistibly to higher prices
than have yet been realized this year
Thus the general opinion, as well
as the information of the crop re.
porters entitled to most confidence
seems to be that the yield of 1897
will be found not far from 100000,
900 bushels, affording enough, anc
yet little more than enough, to sup
ply over 19O,OOO,OOO bushels for for
elgn needs without material reduc
ton of stocks in reserve. But the
question which remains, and which
will greatly influence the course o.
the markets hereafter, is whether the
needs of foreign countries can bt
met with no greater supplies from
the United States. If estimates Of
foreign trade journals and expert;
and of foreign governments are ap