New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1897-10-12
SYMPTOMS LIABLE TO DECEIVE.

From one direction there might presently
come impairment of business confidence unless
the meaning of some general indications OF i'm
proyement which have recently been recorded
Is carefully considered. \ large part or the
extraordinary business transacted in August ana
September has been in replenishng stocks OF
dealers. which had been kept remarkably low
for q long time. But business OF that char
acter does not repeat itself every month. When
stocks have once been enlarged TO the point
considered sufficient for an active trade. further
purchases are naturally limited to about the
quantities distributed TO final consumers. AS
this distribution cannot yet be expected TO ex-
coed or even to equal that which was realized
IN past years of the highest prosperity, when
labor was fully employed and at good wages,
the ceasing Of purchases for replenishment in
any branch Of business Is liable to leave for a
time a volume Of trade smaller than has re-
Gently appeared, and perhaps smaller than ap-
peared in past years Of prosperity. Yet there
would be nothing in such change to warrant
mistrust, or to produce feeling that progress
toward better permanent conditions had been
arrested.
The REIMBURSEMENT Of stocks does not take
place with equal readiness or rapidly IN all
branches so that there Is liable to be heavy
trade Of that character continued IN some kinds
of goods, while in others the business has fallen
hack TO the level of actual distribution to con-
sumers. But more or less diminution is to be
expected, In one branch after another, due to the
cause mentioned. and 1t should not excite even
a momentary disappointment The one point
to be watched, as 1t will determine the speed
and the measure Of lasting advance, Is the EN-
ployment and remuneration Of labor. which can
not increase without resulting Increase In the
retail distribution Of goods, and cannot decrease
without resulting decrease IN such distribution.
II business on the whole advances IN that re-
spect steadily and satisfactorily. there need be
mo fear lest trade should sustain any real set
hack. so long as present favorable conditions In
other respects continue.
The part which speculation has been playing
needs also TO be recognized. When distinct
start toward better things appears there is like
" to spring up great speculative ACTIVITY ID
order to realize profits by the rise Of prices
which Is sure to follow. Such activity has been
seen In stocks, In wheat, In wool and some other
products and this also Is to considerable ex'
tent a temporary increase IN the general vol
ume Of business, because prices cannot go on
rising always. and in each department there
must come time when holders will cease to
buy more and begin to realize profits. After
ward q shrinkage in that part Of the business
Il to be expected. even while the progress
toward greater permanent prosperity Is most
encouraging. In fact. the shrnkage in specula-
ton Is In sense the result Of that growing
prosperity, and. distinct proof that 1t has gone
90 far that even in prosperous times further ad-
vance Of prices might not be expected at once.
The volume Of business therefore. shrnks for
q season in such a department precisely be-
cause the conditions Of business have grown
permanently better.
II these considerations are kept IN mind the