The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1896-10-24

The vote of Crow Wing county, for in
stance, which Is to considerable ex-
tent that of Brainerd, is put at almost
the figures claimed by the Republicans
and much larger than the Dem ocrats
admit. 1t is based on apparently re-
liable information from an unprejudic-
ed source and made without thought
of political effect Morrison county is
/ given as an even thing, while the Re-
publicans claim there a majority of at
least 500. Benton county, which the
Republicans claim will give neither side
majority, is given to Towne by 100.
Pine county, where the Republicans adj
NIT no great weakness, is given to
Towne by 350 The sentiment about
Hinckley is largely favorable to sill
yer and the vote as given, is based on
the statement of a resident of the
county, silver man, 1t Is true, but one
unusually candid and fair. Carlton
county, where 100 is allowed for Nor
ris, is looked upon by some Republi-
cans as a weak spot, but the sentiment
IS Tor Morris, to all appearances in the
towns of Canton and Barnum, and the
vote, as tabuiated is based on this
fact.
In Stearns county, the question as
viewed from Duluth, Is simply one of
majority. Republicans unofficialiy COLI
cede 1,500, and the Democrats claim
$500. In ST. Cloud there is undoubted-
ly very strong silver sentiment and
Tewne has many personal friends, but,
on the contrary, the National Demo-
cratic party has In the county a very
considerable following and local con-
ditionS will result there in Towne re-
ceiving less votes than either Bryan or
Lind. The vote given Towne in the
county, 1900, is a fair average of con-
hicting claims and concessions
This brings the question up to st.
10 hat a
ground of the district.a~The contest
must be settled there It is evident
that, in the nature of things,
THE APPARENT MAJORITY.
given Morris by the averaging of fig
ures in the district, outside of st. Louis
county, may easily run somewhat above
or below the total allowed, $50. The
exact figures in the individual counties
are of necessity arbitrary. But even
allowing them to be exact, it is appar-
ent that Morris to win should carry
his home county. for if Towne carries
the county it will probably be by a
majority that will wipe out any lead
Morris can have on the basis of the
figures given. By the same token Mr.
Towne must also carry the county and
in his case, the necessity is a shade
more stern than in that of his OPP
ponent.
To the popular mind, especially to
those living out of the district to re-
duce the situation to such state that
Morris must carry st. Louis county,
Is to concede the victory to Towne
but this does not of necessity follow
st. Louis county has been, what the
district has not, reliably Republican
and by good majorities. It is true that
Duluth has been and is hot bed of
the silver sentiment Of the state, and
that Towne, as shown by the figures of
the last election, is wonderfully popular
at home, but neither of these facts Is
sufficient to turn the result to fore
gene conclusion.
In an analysis of the situation in St
Louis county, it is natural to take up
first the vote of the county outside of
the city. The outside vote is largely
that of the ranges and no attempt will
be made to separate it from the few
precincts that are not directly included
in the iron towns. Two years ago
the total vote of the county was u, 1853,
of which total 1896 were cast on the
ranges. Out of this range total, Towne
received 1884, Baldwin 671, and Hal
version 80, a majority for Towne Of
2,403. This was not personal Towne
majority, but Republican majority
and, Of all the vote in the district APP
parently least subject to change. The
Democrats admit that, at best, TowT1e
will leave the Mesaba range even, and
the Vermilion a little to the bad. The
most favorable feature of the situation
on the ranges, from the Democratic
standpoint, is an expected reduction in
the total vote and in consequence OF
any ajOrity that Morris may receive
AS matter of fact, it is not likely that
the votes on the ranges will be SO
greatly reduced as is popularity suppos-
ed.
THE CITY OF TOWER
has very little floating population
and at Ely there are nearly as many
men now as there were two years ago.
In fact, this is more Or less true of
the whole range. Not so many men
are employed now as last year or
has frequently been the case, but the
number, as compared with two years
ago, is not so greatly changed as is
peculiarly supposed. Work is being
done az mines which were not in oper-
alton two years ago, and the falling
off, great or small as the case may be,
is relatively larger on the Mesaba than
on the Vermilion, which. by the state
ments of both sides, is favorable to
Morris.
Two years ago, the combined vote Of
the Democrats and Populists in the
county, outside Of Duluth. was only
981. This represents, on the face of
the figures, the vote Towne may ex-
to the same proportion of loss as that
of his opponent. The total vote on
the ranges this year, including as be-
fore the precincts not properly in the
iron centerS, is not expected on the in
side estimate of those best qualified to
judge, to fall below $500, Of which
ToWne, admitting all the votes cast
two years ago by those now supporting
him, has but 9S1. His vote will, how
ever be larger, but a majority against
him on the range of 1 ,500 is not pre-
posterous, 1000 is a figure not unrea-
sonable and 800 is a conservative esti-
mate, averaging again, widely conflict
ing statements.
Taking Morris majority, then, of
800 as ! working basis, the question is
narrowed down to the city Of Duluth
Both sides claimed to have polled the
city and both sides say they will carry
it. In popular judgment the Demo-
Gratis have the best of the claims adj
vanced, taking into account the known
convers. ons of silver and the popularity
of Towne, as shown in the vote Of two
years ago, but again figures are neg
1ected which are least significant.
In the last congressional election Du-
luth cast only little over 5000 votes
and the number will not greatly-if
all appearances. OF this total the
First ward cast nearly 1000 votes and
gave Towne a majority of Ats. This
is the ward in which both Morris and
Towne reside and is the residence dis
trict for the business men, the clerks
and the business house employees of
Duluth. The Republicans claim fiat
out tina. they
WILL CARRY THE WARD
by a vote Of two to one and the Demo-
Gratis admit it is their weak spot in the
city. If Towne comes out of the ward
even which is unlikely the result will