Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1896-09-26
Importance Of Its Composition in Re-
gard to the Question of Silver.
NO MAJORITY FOR TIE WHITE METAL
Even if Bryan is Elected This is Not
Probable.
A L1BERAL ESTI M A Z E


defined idea about the composition of the
next House of Representatives. Amid all
the interest ard anxiety about the cam
paign there has been almost no calculating
or the Congress that Will come in with the
next President. The two congressional
committees have been devoting themselves
more to the presidential campaign than to
the matter of electinS congressman. They
have teen sending out millions of copies of
campaign documents, which may be eX
pected tC influence the congressional as
well as the presidential. election. but their
canvaSsinS seems to have been devoted
chiefly to the presidency. and no figures of
any interest as to the composition of the
next House have been produced. The re-
ports as to Congress are very meager.
a study of the situation discloses several
possibilities. but methods Of calculation
which have been fairly reliable in other
campaigns cannot be depended upon in
figuring on this Congress. The assumption
that in campaign of practically one issue.
and that involving immediate legislation,
the Congress would be almost sure to go
with the presidency Seems fair. A closer
study of the situation, however. indicates
that this assumption is not warranted.
Certainly it cannot be assumed that this
will be true II Bryan should be elected.
Silver the Real Question.
+. TIE real question in connection with the
composition Of Congress is whether or not
there will be a majority for silver. This is
important If Mckinley is elected; II is vital
If Bryan is elected The calculation Of dem
ccratic districts and republican districts
and districts that are sometimes repre-
sented by democrats and sometimes by re-
publicans does not apply In this campaign.
Fer all practical purposes the districts must
be divided into those which favor gold and
those which favor silver. 1t is safe to say
that very few, If any. democrats will Oe
elected in districts that are opposed to the
free and unlimited coinage of silver. If
any sound money democrats are elected
they cannot be counted in making up an
organiZa ton on Bryan basis. The prob
ability is strong that unless there is almost
a revolution. the next House will be op
posed to the free coinage of silver, what
ever the result of the presidential election
may be. Unless all notions of the public
sentiment of the east are erroneous, tire
free silver democracy, which is the only
democracy, must look to the south and
vest for its entire representation In Con
gress The east must he eliminated. All
those democrats who have been counted to
make up democratic majorities IN the past
must be eliminated.
In the Fifty-second Congress the demo-
Gratis had a majority over all of about 1li.
There were about E36 straight democrats
elected. They had nearly solid delega-
ton from Indiana. thirteen or fourteen
Iowa delegation. two-thirds of the Michi-
gan delegation, three members from Mime
sofa, about fourteen of the Ohio delega-
ton. a member from Montana, and so on
through the west. That was great land
slide. The gains in the west were unheari
of. If all they then had are conceded to
them. and every one elected from these
southern and western districts is a silver
man. they will not have a majority for
a free silverBryan reorganization of the
House.
4 Majority Against the White Metal.
About e:ghty-two of the 236 democrats of
that most remarkable Congress were men
who could not stand on the present demo-
cratic platform. Only about Us of the
| number were from the south and west, an!
& good many Of those were gold men. Few
people will venture the prediction that the
west will return more democrats this fail
than it did to the Congress which gave the
democrats the largest ma joIity they ever
| had. But on that liberal basis, countin.;
| all except those from the east as silver
| men ready to carry out Mr.. Bryan's rec
| concentrations, there would be a majority
| of upward of forty against them 1t SEEM
| almost an imposs.bilit to get a silver ma
| jor:ty in the House with parties divided as
| they in this campaign. Bryan might
| BE- elected by a considerable majority Of the
| electoral college; the republicans might not
| b. numerous enough in the House to main
| tain the organization; the populists mign;
| have the balance of power between tht
| two parties, and yet silver be in the minor.
| ity.
According to all known systems of cal
| cuiation, the democrats must have som.
| representation from the east in order tc
| organize the House. Such representa- or
| would not be available for an organization
| n harmony with Bryan administration
| In ordinary times member may vote with
his party, either knowing that his vote will
! not change the result that what h
| votes for against his conviction will not
| by any possibility become a law. Many
| democrats have in the past voted for sill
yer on that principle. But if Mr. Bryan
| were elected President 1t is pretty certain
| that no member would vote for free silver
unless he wanted 1t. A veto has Away!
| stood in the way, even If there were dan
ger Of the bill getting through both houses
| Members have counted on that. With Bry
an i'll the White House there could be NJ
such calculation. Moreover, the gold dem
ocrats have already practically thrown of
| the party ties, and the mere name of the
party will not bind those together who Gt
not agree. If any men calling themselves
democrats should be elected to the Hous
from New York. Pennsylvania, New Jer
sey or anywhere in New England, it woul,
be but chance if any of them would b.
found to obey the democratic caucus.
| a Liberal Estimate.
But, conceding that all democrats tina
it is possible could at this time be elected
|
Gus, liberal estimate of big harvest 70
silver Representatives throughout the soutl
and west would still leave that party shor
of majority.
| Take this estimate, which, it will b
granted. is liberal: Alabama, .: Arkansas
q; California, 5; Colorado, .; Florida, q
Georgia, IL; Idaho, l; Illinois, s; Indiana
6; Iowa, 1; Kansas. ); Kentucky, 6; Louis
lana, 4; Maryland. 2: Michigan, 3: Misss
sippi. Z; Missouri, IL; Montana, 1; Ne
braska. 3; Nevada. 1; New York, .; Mort
Carolina, 9; Ohio, 3; Pennsylvania, s; Sout
Carolina, Z: Tennessee, Z; Texas, 12; Utah
1; Virginia, 8; Washington, 2; West Viz
ginia, 3; Wisconsin, 2; Wyoming. /.
If they can elect all these Representa-
| tives who will vote for silver, they w.
have 16S, or about ten more than they ha
from the south and west in the famou
| F:fty-second Congress The opposttio
would still have p majority.
, nr{o 70 hor h