The herald., 1896-11-07
Local, Eastern and Foreign
Commercial Dealings
WALL STREET SPECULATION
Short Supplies and a Strong Market on
Tess
Cohee for Year-Large Supplies Cause
Weak Market-Likely to Continue,
for the Whole Year

Recent newspaper articles reporting a
serious shortage in the supplies of tea seem
TO have been based upon advices from
both China and Japan. There 81 not much
doubt among importers that tea will be
IN smaller supply than usual, but, 1t is not
believed that the decrease in the crop
yield will be severely felt in retail circles
or that consumers will appreciate'any ma
terial difference between the price or the
quality Of the tea used by them last sea-
son and that with which they will be fur
nished the coming season. Already the
market has advanced or cents from
September's quotations, following the ex-
ample of nearly every other merchandise
market, and there will probably be fur
Their improvements in values before the
1897 crops come to market, yet we do not
anticipate tea famine or an extortionate
range of values for the estimated short
age is only about 15 900, 900 pounds, and there
is considerable leaf left over from other
seasons. The estimated shortage of ia
pan teas is about 100000 pounds.
Latest advices from.Shanghai report that
that prices have leaned slightly in buyers
Observation-Disclosures Review
W. M BIZ 81 Issue circular
quoted:
received during September and October
nearly 1000 bags of all kinds of coffee,
by no means owing to the impending cleo
Since the current crop in Brazil commenced,
there have been believers at prices from IL
cents to 10 cents and cents for purchases
to supply themselves literally, Just as the
believers in Europe have been freely sup
piled from 55s down to ASS for good aver
age. After Europe and the states have
supplied themselves SO beautifully, heavy
receipts of coffee still continue, to come
followed a wise policy in buying the mar
ket down. but with overwhelming supplies
staring them in the face, they wouldsscarce-
ly fare as we'll buying the market up.
"As stated before. we estimate the cur
rent Rio and Santos crops at a minimum
of 100000 bags, and the outside. crops to-
about 900 bags above the average out
turn of the past three years) We con-
Of m IN aSa
in Bahia and Victoria. With a ,produc-
deliveries at ii, 900 bags Cor 500, COO bags
above the average) we would then carry
over from this crop into the next some
'In our previous circular we have shown
that the average consumption of Rio and
Santos coffee 60 during dar the past three years
crop of 6,OOOOo0 bags would not reduce
stocks during the next crop year, and 4
We know of one firm estimating the ex-
port of 1898 from Santos at 100000 bags
minimum. and of another estimating the
next Santos crop at 4.500.0O0 bags to 4,750.-
900 bags. We have not heard any figures
about the next Rio crop as yet, but with
the increased plantations in Santos. the
figures named are quite feasible, and an
estimate of 100000 bags for the. next Rio
and Santos crop must be considered as
moderate, from the information so far re-
ceived.
.'If European spectators are DESTROYS
of having a higher market in which to dis
pose OF their present heavy holdings, and
il Brazil, owing to the severe financial dis
tress so prevalent there, wishes to sell as
quickly and at as high prices as possible.
these form no reasons why the United
States should change the policy of carry
ing ample supplies for requirements or go
into the market to buy freely in the ex-
pectation of a rise at a time when stocks
are increasing to an UNUSUAL extent. Fur
thermore. in former years a visible supply
of 5000 900 bags has brought values down
to a basis of Z cents for No. in New
York, and they remained there just SO
long as the production steadily exceeded
the quantity required for consumption In
previous years the surplus of two large
crops has been necessary to bring about a
visible supply Of 100000 bags, but the sur
plus on the present mammoth crop Will
be sufficient to accomplish this in one year.
How long the period of over-production
will continue no one can say. of course. but
from the present outlook 1t will continue
for another year at least, and this Is why
we consider extreme caution should be OBJ
servedn