The herald., 1896-09-30
WALL STREET SPECULATION
Local, Eastern and Foreign
Commercial Dealings
Interesting Review on the Worlds Sugar
Supply
Crops and Stocks for Four Past Years
Why Prices Declined Contrary to
Expectations-Flour Advances.

out the world is not as satisfactory to
sugar producers as has been confidently
expected during this year and especially
since it became manifest that Cuba would
contribute very little sugar to the worlds
supply for 1896. We have had scarcely nor
NAL conditions in our United States mar
ket, nor in fact anywhere in the world
since the summer of 1893. The special ses-
sion of congress, called by PresidentCleve-
land in August, 1S93 soon gave evidence
Of determination to take hold of the
sugar question, and early in 1894 it be-
came evident that at least 40 per cent ad
valorem duty would be imposed on sugar
in any new tariff legislation. This led to
a careful scanning of the sugar supplies
of the world, and their purchose and con-
centration in the United States as far as
practicable.
With Cuban sugar crop OF a million
tons just ended, and another of a million
of tons standing in the fields ready for
the harvest of 1S94-95, and with an unpre-
cedentedly large beet crop growing, it
became possible. to concentrate more than
norman supply OF sugar in the United
states In the summer of 1894 without seri-
ously disturbing the sugar markets of the
world.
The Wilson bill became law August 2s.
1874, and the demand for foreign sugar
ceased. With our home market held down
by the concerted efforts of the refiners and
with foreign sugar markets suddenly par
alyzed by the cessation of the demand for
sugar from the United States, all the su-
gar markets of the world began to weaken.
AS we advanced into the autumn it be-
came evident that the beet crop of Eu-
rope would furnish q million tons surplus
gar Which durpg ISL 81 isss Snd iSss sna ave
aged import cost prices of 3 cents for the
United States fell in 1s94-95 below cents.
sugar values to the arrangement of the
sugar trade brought about by our sugar
legislation we should seem to give made
quate consideration to the enormous in
crease in the sugar supply which was GER
tainly one of the chief factors in produce
ing the great fall in prices. What we have
fears of now is that this was the chief
cause of the great decline, and that now
instead Of recovering its normal conditions
we shall again s find the sugar supply far in
excess Of the worlds requirements. Let
us examine the production Of sugar in Eu-
rope during recent years and we may be
aided In arriving at correct conclusions.
According to LIGHT the production in tons
OF sugar, in Europe, has been as follows:
,soo Tons.
1922 1922 ....... .............,........" sS9, 535
1879 1879 '.....''''.. l92, 550
' The calling Of all Of the odd lots Of sMsap
about the world to the United States
in the spring and summer of 1894 and the
extra million tons of beet sugar thrown
on the market during the autumn and
winter of 1894-95, were the chief two factors
that broke down the general level of sugar
anu nave thuS Iar MADE recovery difhcult,
II not impossible.
The loss by war of over three-quarters
OF the Cuban sugar crop of 1886 was as
sumed to be, and expected to be. COM
petent cause for the restoration of normal
prices by the reduction of the sugar supply
to previous or normal proportions. When
sugar supply. diminished by over 5o0.co0
tons. as shown by the crop of 1895, there
could be no question but that sugar pro-
ducers would have confidence in improved
prices and hold for them stubbornly.
Now let us examine the total visible
sugar supply at about this date for several
Tons
August q. 1923 .......................645 .645, 900
August 10, 1884 .....................;.a ~, Sis
Ausust 81 iSSS doS al
The S5oioO tons surplus visible supply in
the. summer of 1895 is an adequate and eff
fective explanation of why sugar values
dropped so precipitately in the winter of
1s94-95. Now let us suppose that the Cuban Cut an
tons larger; that the European beet sugar
crop had been as, large as the year before,
lie. 22,0C0 tons larger. We should then
have to add to the visible sugar supply of
the world. August 27, 1896, 1925. 900 tons of
sugar, and exhibit total supply of 2,725,-
900 tons, less any increased consumption
of sugar that might have been brought
about by the lower, prices that would me-
cessarily have resulted.
Natural causes cut off $4,000 tons in
Europe and the war 800. 900 tons in Cuba
from the world supply, and yet we have
now 6S1, ,492 tons more sugar than. at the
same date in 1894. the visible supply hav-
ing only diminished 2160OO tons during the
past year notwithstandihg 4, the shorter %ri1e
| crop in Europe and the war loss IN Cuba,
! rope and Cuba maintained their produc-
| tions?
| Now, as to the future, we are confronted
| by the probability of large sugar crops in
| Europe, at least several hundred thou
sands larger than the last, if not as large
| as the enormous crop of 1894 The Cuban
! crop promises to be as small as the last.
| In other sugar producing countries there
| promises to be no material variation in the
production. AS Semtember brings out but
| little new sugar it would seem that the
| visible supply would be considerably small
er by the end of the month. At this time
| last year there was 235.00 tons of sugar in
| Cuba now but 51000 tons. This would
show that America must become an active
| sugar buyer in Europe. and this would
| tend to strengthen prices. The whole sit
uation is disappointing. and yet the lead
| ing facts concerning the market, the, sup
| ply, etc. would indicate the probable
| course of our sugar market as about that