The Saint Paul globe., 1896-10-16
RIVER AT 8 A. NJ.
THE WAY THEY COUNT.

The people who are at loss to un-
derstand the cocl1sureness of some of
our Populistic friends, who believe that
Bryan is surely going to sweep the
country, may find some light thrown
on the subject by formal editorial es
innate of the Minnesota situation that
appears in the Denver Times. This is
not the mere braying of a correspond
ent sent out to write things up as he
would like to find them, nor the empty
claim of a political committee that
deems claiming a vital factor in sue
cess, but it purports to give the rea-
sons why intelligent men are convinced
that Minnesota's electoral vote will be
cast for Bryan. 1t is interesting to us
who are on the spot and think we know
something about it ourselves to see
how this improbable result is arrived
at. In the first place, it is not based
upon any canvass or aseertained facts.
1t IS mere abstract mathematical cal
rulation, deduced arbitrarily from TIE
election returns of two years ago. II
is pointed out that in that election
the total combined vote for Owen and
Becker was 141, 80, and for Nelson 147.-
944 On these two statements hang all
the law and the prophets as they ap
pear to the Denver Times writer.
with this as a starting point, showing
the net majority of only 6,494 votes for
GOV. Nelson, the hopeful arithmetician
starts upon his search for Bryan rain
BOWS. He estimates that 10 per cent
of the Democratic vote will he cast
1of either Mckinley or Palmer, and
that 10 per cent of the Republican vote
Will go over to the free silver side
Making these additions and s11btrae-
t1ons he finds that the total vote for
Mckinley will be 135, ,S2S. and for Rrvan
l0O957, giving Bryan a majority of
1o'l29. OF course, if the percentage
should be larger than 10. the greater
the increase, the greater the addition
TO the Bryan majority; since the same
per cent is applied on the one hand
only to the $4,000 odd votes cast for
Becker while, on the other hand If is
applied to the nearly 100000 cast for
Nelson. This is a beautiful scheme of
figuring, and we may notice in nassino
the singular coincidence of this esti-
mate with the figures furnished by the
chairman of tha fusion committee in
the case of Minnesota.
One would notice, of conrsa
the inherent absurdity of the
supposition that either 10 nor
cent of the Democratic vote will meas
ure the sound money detection. or that
there is anything like 10 per cent of
the Republicans in 1894 who have sone
over to free silver now. Taking first
what we know about. it is well under
stood that those who voted for Gen.
Becker were practically all honest
money men. The fight was made on
that issue. Every effort was made to
get for Mr.. Owen, the Populist can
didate, the vote Of every Democrat not
sound on the money question. That
effort was reasonably successful Those
who voted for Becker, knowing that he
could not be elected did yerv rnucb
what the supporters of Palmer will do
in the national field this year. They
cast their votes on principle. and the
sacrifice that they made is the meas
ure of the strictness of their adher-
ence to the sound money cause. If.
therefore, we were to say that not over
10 per cent of the Democratic vote
that went to Gen. Becker will be cast
for Mr.. Bryan this year, it would be
much more rational estimate than
that only 10 per cent of it will 60 to
some representative of an honest dol
lar.
We do not, however, need to reIy
upon guess work. We commend the
Denver Times and all others who are
attempting to prophesy on the basis of
the returns of 1884, to the fact that
they have in those very returns most