Delaware gazette and state journal., 1896-01-30

Affected the supply and demand OF that
cereal. Any,influence found TO be at
work since price began to fall that has
tended to increase the former and de-
crease the latter will help 10 disclose
the method Of recovery. notable
TACT apparent at the outset is that
there seems to be no sufficient justifica.
tion for the situation in the amount OF
the Increased supply. That is to say,
granting all other conditions TO bo un-
changed, the decline has been oxces-
siye. 1t is quite impossible to deter
mine with any exactness what has been
the increase in the supply of wheat
seeking a market. Some reach con-
clusion by taking the estimated crop
compilations of the whole world, and
others BY taking those for European
countries as the basis of their results.
Both are uncertain factors. for neither
class of figures can be oblained for
wide enough reach Of years made up on
the same plan to furnish a comparison
OF sufficient length to give certainty
to the argument. Suppose one should
start an estimate of the wants of con-
sumers with Neuman's figures for
Europe, which for 1870 TO 1880 averaged
l,2S7, 900, 600 bushels; il so, even the
large later totals do not show an in
crease sufficient to equal the additional
requirements necessary to meet the
natural increase in population. Or, IL
We take Dornbusch's estimate for tho
world in 1880 and compare it with the
latest results as collected and compiled
by our own Agricultural Bureau, the
increase shown does not any better ex-
plain why the prico Of wheat should
be cut almost in half to-day.
There has, though. no doubt been
what may be called an over production
in the three years prior TO 1905. or
the truth of that statement the Agri-
cultural Bureaus figures seem to afford
good evidence, while the increase in
the visible stocks carried over from
year TO year appears to confirm the
opinion. In the year which has Just
closed there Is again smaller yield
and smaller stocks. But the conclusion
we think every ono must reach who
will thoroughly examine the subject
with the help Of this class of statistics
is that the increase in the supply since
1870, when considered in connection
with tho increase in population, fur.
nishes no sufficient reason for the low
value of wheat ruling.
On the other hand, it is equally clear
that there are several reasons why
wheat should be permanently lower than
II was years ago, and why the world is
not likely to see wheat at a dollar a
bushel again, except il may be temper.
ariiy, us for instance in case of wide
disaster to crops We need not enlarge
upon these influences, as they arc we'll
known and have been often referred to.
One cause is that the cost Of production
has decreased another is the cost az
reaching market ia much less still
another is that the average land given
to wheat is more prolific than formerly.
As TO the effect upon price Of rich
lands for wheat, il is to be said that
there are such lands not only in
America, but all over the world; be-
sides, tho modern machines for cult
waiting wheat are also in Use every
where; and Furthermore cheap freights
are a universal condition. Hence,
although the West can produce and
market this staple as cheap as any
other part of the world, So far as these
influences have decreased the cost Of
raising and marketing the grain and
so lowered its value, to that extent no
one need expect a recovery of the price.
Or to put the proposition in another
form, We shall never again see the day
when the price of wheat will enable
tho lands Of Long Island, or others OF
Ike character, to raise wheat at n
profit For these reasons II there is
any farmer having such lands who is
indulging hope and waiting for the
pendulum to swing 80 far back that
he will again be in a position to make
nh kn
well give up the thought at once.
Moreover, if the return OF prosperous
times depends upon the return of those
conditions, prosperous times must be
indefinitely postponed.
The conclusion from the foregoing is
PLAN. Only one way remains TO secure
any relief from tho existing depression
in the wheat market, and that ia through
an increased demand. AS to the lower
prlce Of the staple u part Of the decline
Is, we have seen, permanent aud cannot
be recovered. As TO supply the
existing evidence, SO far az il goes,
does not favor the prevailing belief
that II has been excessive or that IL is
likely to DO when consumption is in a.
normal condition. The public has gone
daft struggling over the matter of
wheat statistics with reference to sup
ply. Eynn to-day large body of
people are constantly thrusting upon
our notice India as the great DESTROYER
OF our agricultural prospects. India
IS no more to be relied upon for q
large wheat crop than ii is for a large
cotton crop. We wonder how many of
these writer's who take their data second
or third hand are aware that India
during its last three fiscal years. 1892.
93, lSa3-9i aud ls94-0j, exported Of
wheat an average OF but 1l,344, $50
evils, or say tat liz pounds to the
hundred weight only 2l, 17G, 16S bushels
year, We used 10 hear it proclaimed
near and far, and pamphlet upon PAM
phlet was written, and even books, to
prove that because Of lndia's produce
tlnn OF cotton our planters would soon
pe without an occupation, and yet
To-day American cotton ie no less 3D.
viously king than it ever was. More
over, as far us the evidence now goes
American wheat has Just about as
much to fear from India as cotton
formerly had, and no more
The important thought these facts
enforce is that demand ia the factor
which should concern our agricultural.
lists, and not supply. Farmers have been
distressing themselves altogether too
much about over production. 1t is
contracted consumption that is work
ing the chief harm. II, for ilusira-
tion, our planters wish to get paying
price for their cotton their aim should
ho TO set all the cotton spndles in
America in motion, to have them run
on long time. so that the production
OF goods might De large, labor fully
employed, and tho industry progress.
sive; To accomplish this il hardly