New-York tribune., 1896-12-06
POLITICS ~ THE RETCHSTAG.

The detailed account of the German political
nartics nublisbed elsewhere in to-day's paper
will serve greatly to elucidatc. to the general
reader the present state Of affairs III III" Kelchs-
tag. and especially the significance Of the att
tudc of various party leaders toward the Budget.
The striking feature of the Budget. as hitherto
explained. is the enormously increased appro-
pria,ion for the navy. TO It the old Cartel
Brothers will doubtless give their support; Tor
although the Cartel. strictly speaking. vanished
when Prince Bismarck was dismissed from the
Che scellorship. the three parties which were
associated under 1t continue pretty steadily 10
act together in support of the Government 1t
will as certainly he opposed TO the erd' rs Ill
decd II is now opposed by the Social Democrats
and by the two Radical parties representing inc
remnants of the old FrciSinnige. Bnt neither oi
these combinations includes n majorlt" or the
Deputies The Cartel parties are: CoiscrVa-
tivcs -: National Liberals. t'. ana linpcrlar
lists %: a total Of 1J1. If 10 these we add 'he
II Anti-Semes. who will probably act with
Them we have l6S. But 100 are needed Tor
bare majority. There are - members OF minor
factions Of whom not more than hall can p'
hoped for as Government supporters nakihs
at best 1S4. or IL shor. of the necessary MAJOR
ity. On the other hand. the ~ Social Demo
Gratis "a Radical Populars and II Radical
Unonists make only 50 In Opposition; ana II
half of the minor factions be added. they make
only 9S or 1O1 short Of majority. The other
votes. welding the balance of power. are to he
found in the Centre with its 96 members, anu
the Polish party. which may be reckoned part
Of the Centre, with It's ID.
Jpon the votes of the Centre. therefore. de-
pends the fate OF the measure. We might sa!
the vote of the Centre, FOR the 10 are wellnigh
certain TO be cast ms one. cast Win me ''o'-
ernment, the latter will have an Overwhelming
majority. Cast with the Opposition, II Will nave
a majority small but sufficient. But which way
1t will he cast Is yet matter OF cohJec''i1e'
The Centre has not spoken. Radicals ana So
cIal Democrats rage against the BILL ana the
Cartel parties defend it. All that was to be ex-
pccted The speeches thus far made are men'-
" preliminary sklrnshlng. having little or no
effect upon the battle proper. The heavy hrih2.
which will decide the day. will come from the
Centre which thus far has remained silent ana
given no sign OF lis purpose. Even the ordinary
data for forecasting action are confusing. sine"
the last election the Centre has posed on more
than one occasion as Government parry. ana
there is no doubt that the Government has nope
Of It's support in this crisis. On the other hand,
the Centrst organs. such rs the "''ernanla anu
"K6lnische Volkszeiiung.' are strcnuously op-
posing the naval appropriation and urging the
Deputies 10 vote against Il. II + possible or
course that the Centre will be divided. as II was
on the Army bill in 1893. II only quarter or
1t sided with the Government the Government
would win. But that course IN 1893 was dam
aging To the party, costing 1t serious losses at
the ensuing general election. and the Centre Is
scarcely likely, therefore, TO repeat the expert
ment. The chances are that the 9G. and perhaps
the 10 will vote unanimously. and that there
fore whatever uttcrance Count Hompcsch makes
concerning the Budget-and he must speak
soon-will foreshadow the certain fate Of that
measure.