Evening star., 1896-10-31
Conflicting Claims of the Political
Prognosticators.
REPUBLICAN METHODS MORE ORDERLY
indications Regarding the Labor
Vote.
VIEWS OF CORRESPONDENTS

sItfHti Fr'iu III Stal correspondent
CHICAGO. ILL.,. October 3I.-Nothing has
occurred to relieve the political situation
of doubt. Nothing is liable to clear up the
situation before election day. Reports in
abundance are received and they are all
positive enough, but these cannot be ac-
cepted as conclusive They make the dis
puted states so both ways. The burden Of
testimony is with Mckinley. But the dem
ocrats say they have not the money for
witness fees to bring all their testimony
before the court of ante-elect ton prophecy
The republican national committee pre-
sent an array of testimony in the way of
claims from the chairmen of their state
committees, which, IL accepted, indicate
nothing less than a landslide. The COM
mittee directed by Mr.. Hanna have to show
In evidence of the accuracy OF their claims
the most beautiful piece of machinery in
the way of organization that the mind can
contemplate. 1T is built like a watch"
and If 1t has been properly regulated at
the start there is no use arguing a point
against ii. Or it is like one of those ma
chimes for adding up figures. II il is set
accurately the result can be relied on: II
1t varies number or two there is no way
OF calculating the percentage of variation
On the other hand the democrats are
no means of making a man-to-man count.
they therefore select a sample in each COM
munity and figure from that They do an
the buyer does with his wheat sample IL
and not attempt to examine every grain.
The republicans are counting on regular
lty and system; the democrats are looking
Tor violent upheaval or the sudden swell
ing OF tide, or, to multiply metaphor, the
democrats predict the weather by WATCH
ing the barometer and looking about the
horlzon The republicans depend on the
signal service system of reporting by tele-
graph the location of the highs" and
lows and the direction and velocity OF
the wind. This difference of method kept
in mind will help people to form judgment
as to the reliability of the conflicting pre-
dictions Of the rival professors EVERY
body knows that the signal service system
averages up best, but sometimes the bar
ometer tells of a storm that can't be found
on the chart
There are pronounced symptoms of a dis
ordered condition in most of the sc-calIed
doubtful states. These symptoms nave not
abated, nor have they grown any more
pronounced. Moreover it is doubtful
whether there is sufficient eruption TO
indicate the result the democrats look for.
they see to exist without resulting in more
than reduction of the republican matori-
ties In the several doubtful states.
Deceptive Method.
There is one method of figuring that is
often resorted to by the Bryan people that
L cannot place much confidence in: It was
used in statement given out by Mr..
Washberne. head Of this branch of the
populist committee, last night. 1t is the
n nethod of making combina tions and say
ing II We get such and such states we can
afford to lose certain other states, etc,
without claiming directly any one OF the
states. Fer instance, 1t is said that If they
get any one or any two of certain class
of states they will win
Such claims are generally made where the
chance of getting all the states named Is
nearly as good as that of getting any one
OF them. 1t would indicate more confidence
and knowledge to claim any one or two Of
these states directly than to say that they
are bound to get some one or two of tho
group of Illinois, Iowa, Ohio, Michigan,
Minnesota and Indiana. 1 do not think this
sort of a claim fairly represents the
strength of the Bryan position, but 1t is one
made use of, end it suggests weakness or
lack of definite information
The Labor Vote.
There are some evidences that the IN
known element in the labor vote has a ten
dency toward Bryan. These indications
apply more particularly to Chicago, where /.
the silent votes Importance is determining
the result in the state, but practically the
same situation exists in several other of
the doubtful states. 1 am inclined to think,
however, that what is regarded the
Chicago plank in the democratic plat
fern does not add any strength to the
ticket that is not more than counterbal-
anced. Very mary people here have dis
agreeable recollections of the riots and .'ia
banan' and the pea nuta canda" man ia
more afraid of having the contents of his
cart split in the streets than he is of hav-
ing his rights trampled on by federal
troops.
/ have tried to ascertain how large that
labor class is in Chicago among whom L
have discovered there Is a disposition to
vote for Mckinley with the idea of being
found in the most Respectable" company.
On local democratic authority the number
is estimated at 10000. Most of these may
safely be put down for Mckinley as an
offset to the republican labor vote that
will go for Bryan. The same class in other
cities in the country will surely furnish
Mckinley a large vote.
Views of the Correspondents.
The Herald here published the opinions
of many of the well-known correspondents
who have been making a tour of the doubt
full states. Only one of those who have
spent much time in active travel expresses
the opinion that Bryan will win. Two
others who express that opinion have trav-
eled very little in the campaign, though
they have been constantly watching poll
tics.
These correspondents are mostly repub-
licans, but their disposition is TO be right
rather than partisan as much they can.
The men quoted are not those who have
kept pretty constantly with Mr.. Bryan. 7
had a chance to talk with most of those
who have been with Bryan from the start
and found that nearly all of them expected
him to be elected. One man, who expressed
doubt. however. was probably the most de-
voted Bryan man in the group.
1 find in every quarter where the opinion
prevails that Mckinley will be elected that
one reason for the opinion never fails to be
given, whatever others are thrown in to
sustain II. That reason Is that nothing
could prevail against the tremendous infiu-
ences that are cooperating against Bryan.
j. p. NJ