Evening star., 1896-10-06
MINNESOTA FOR MCKINLEY.
Uncertainty ns to the Size of the Re-
publican Majority.

Special Correspondence of The Evening Star.
MINNEAPOLIS, Mimi, October 2. 1896.
A conservative and satisfying forecast as
to the probable result of the November bat
tie in this state is most difficult for the man
who knows the most about it, The truth is
that prophecy was never a less exact art in
Minnesota than this year The principal
obstacle in the way, beyond question. is the
indecisve attitude of a large share of the
voters Particularly is this true of the
labor element in the cities.
CanvasSers of the gold committees find a
reluctance on the part of workingmen to
say what they intend to do, and although
a large share of them declare that they
will stand for gold, the silver canrass"r
who follows after is likely TO find just as
large a majority leaning toward the Whlle
metal On the final decision of this labor
vote as to how it will go depends almost
entirely the size of the Mckinney ma
jcrity. in Minnesota. For even in all this
incertitude it seems TO be admitted now
that Mckinley will carry the state if only
by a small margin.
The Bryan leaders virtually admit that
this is the situation at the present writing
by the insistent demands they have made
on the national committees for orators OF
wide reputation to come over into Mace
donia and pull them out of the crisis.
Bryan himself, PETER, Debs, Allen, Teller
and WatSOn-tneSe are some OF the big
guns which are to do the cannonading in
the north star state during the next month.
Under cover of their smoke. the fusionists
hope to be able to carry off the electoral
vote yet; but they are very far from the
cocksure attitude they assumed-and with
scme reason-when the wave of Bryan
ism swept over the state just after the Chi
cago convention. 1t was almost month
before that wave began to reccGe but the
recession began just about when it was
predicted, and it has been in progress ever
since.
Position Of the Farmers.
With the farmers Of the state the issue
has largely been determined. A majority
of this class living north of the Minnesota
river-the wheat farmers-will go for sill
ver They have become convinced that free
coinage will mean higher prices for wheat
and without giving much consideration 10
what effect it will have on the prices of
things they buy, have concluded to try the
experiment. But the farmers south of the
Minnesota, the diversified farmers of the
state, the men who raise fine stock and sell
butter, cheese and eggs, are even more solid
for gold than their brethren of the north
are for silver. 1t is estimated that six out
of every ten of the wheat farmers will go
for Bryan, while from seven or eight out of
every ten diversified farmers will go for
Mckinley. 1t is among the agricultural
class that the republicans have been max
ing their greatest gains, and the campaign
is virtually about over in the country.
Nothing is now left but the fireworks
With this condition of things, the republi-
cans feel confident of carrying the state by
from 1000 to 2o,po0-the figure as already
stated depending on the final attitude of
the labor vote These figures are not the
published claims of the state committee
but the conservative inside estimate not
made to be given out. The basis for the es-
innate is this: Give Bryan 60 per cent Of
the up-country farmers, concede to him
from 60 to 40 per cent of the labor vote
and Mckinley will yet win out by the ma
jority quoted.
The battle ground in Minnesota, both as
to the electoral and the congressional tick
cts, is in the third, fifth, sixth and seventh
districts The first, second and fourth are
beyond cavil republican. The sixth, as in
dicated in a previous letter, is probably so,
and the fifth, which is the Minneapolis dis
trict, is scarcely more dubious. The third
is normally anti-republican, if the opposi-
| ton is united, but Congressman Heatwole
| has a good fighting chance by reason of the
| German detection from Bryan, and the
| large gold democratic element. The sew
enth is the populist stronghold, and Con-
grcssman Eddy is making the fight Of his
| life there for reelection.