The herald., 1896-05-04
THE ADVANCES OF Science
They Are Made in the Fickle
Manner OF Nature
THE CAPRICES OF PROGRESS
Aluminium Is Needed, But Remains in
the Clay Banks
Man Sought to Ply and Found Stenm.De.
veiopment Of Eiectrlcity-Passing
Of the Locomotive
lCopyright, 1896, by John Clark Ridpath.]
VIII

lCopyright 1906 by John Clark Ridpath.l
VIII.
In human history there is little that
Is logical. Whoever attempts to apply
the syllogism to the affairs Of men and
nations will be disappointed. It may
not be doubted that the civilized life
goes forward by regular stages, but the
stages cannot be calculated or predicted.
Tho advances are made in tho capricious
manner OF the natural world. Meteor
ology is, on the whole, better science
than history. The event of the atmos-
phere may be discerned at least a few
hours before it comes, but man life gives
60 little premonition of its purpose that
no human foresight can foretell its &C.
tion for day.
The principal reason Of the irregular
progress of events is to be found in the
fact tha,' modern civilization sympa.
thizes e. profoundly with the move
aisIts Of science. It has science for the
chief condition Of its growth and evolu-
tioD, and science itself is variable.
The irregular advances Of science are
the chief cause of the caprices Of prog
ress. In man life it is the unforeseen
that comes to pass, because the advance
Of science is whimsical The scientific
evolution spreads over the earth and
possesses it in the manner of a vino
growing whittier it will. Not all of the
learned societies in the world can turn
one tendril in this direction or in that.
As a result, all invention ard all appli-
cation of natures laws, and consequent
ly all progress, are bound to conform to
tbs capricious movements of fact that
is in nowise understood. Since one can
not see the next stage in scientific devel-
cpment, and since the mind is SO consti-
tuted as to run before existing condi-
tions and to expect this form or that as
the next aspect of the civilized life,
there is a constant break between fact
and expectation. 1t is thus literally the
unexpected thing that occurs, and the
expected that comes late or never comes
at all.
For this reason tho predictions Of the
prophet are not fulfilled. Take the case
Of flying. For more than 100 years
aerial navigation has been expected. 1t
was expected before there was steam
cylinder in the world, before there was
cartridge, before there was system
of public postage. That man should be
able to lift himself little and make
his way through the air seems to be
ono Of the easiest and most natural
stages in progress. The ocean is a sea,
and the atmosphere is a sea. To navi-
gate the water was one Of the earliest
exploits Of man. To navigate the air has
been his long standing ambition, yet
he has not succeeded in doing 1t. He has
not made perceptible progress in the di-
section Of doing it. The scientific evolu-
tion does not seem to lie that way. The
end Of the century finds tho principal in
habitant of the earth able to fly as far
as he can jump. Between him and the
frog. considered as aeronauts. honors
are easy.
Fifteen years ago there was more to
be expected from the phonograph than
from either the telephone or the cleo
tr1cal light, or both. The possibility Of
tho phonograph was and is larger than
the possibility Of either Of tho other
two. The phonograph is perhaps tho
Eublimest hint ever suggested in the
intellectual sphere. 1t points to COM
plete revolution in the method Of learn
ing and in all the recorded forms Of lit
crature. It proposes to put back upon
the natural basis the entire mental prod
ucts Of the world by restoring sound
and the human ear to their normal
Offices in the requirement and registra-
~ loaC In, FOL
every child among the nations and to
promote and complete his education
along the same lines which he happily
followed from his mothers knee until
his progress was broken by an artificial
entrance into the kingdom of books.
But the scheme for the restoration Of
memory and for making every man his
own secretary does not seem to work
1t does not apply itself. The telephone
goes on to perfection and opens up the
world; every man speaks to his neigh
bor. The electrical light illumines the
world; every man sees his neighbor.
Darkness and crime stink away together
and hide in the same bed underground,
but the dimmed and exhausted eye is
still obliged to do the work Of the ear
Is we'll as its own in the prodigious
sssks Of learning.
The earth has in it giant tantalus
Sailed aluminium. Out of every clay
iAank the giant groans to be delivered.
II shovelful Of clay bearing 60 parts
of aluminium could be made to give up
.aAtreasure for cent, the world would
A,a transformed. Whatever SO called
"design" there is in nature is here
baked and put at fault Man needs the
new metal and seeks it with all his in
gnnu'ty, but the baff1ed chemist is
obli1ed in old age to find companion
chip with the bankrupt aeronaut. Nei-
ther does the ono fly nor the other find
way.
The nations are walking literally on
a bed Of metal more useful than iron
and more aeantiful than silver-walk-
ing and tizG.sx not, seeing without the
ability to sN A large part Of the sur
face Of the earss is waiting to be fused
In the interests c6 higher and more
beautiful civilization, and no discoverer
leads the way. Man, hoping to find the
way. sees suddenly above his head an
electrical light. He beholds stretched
xrirA and hpnre "A man talksno frr,y,, 9e