The Portland daily press., 1896-03-16
PROSPECTS.
Mckinley Will Lead on The First
Ballot.
REED WILL BE A STRONG SECOND
AND HIS DELEGATES WILL STICK.

The Mckinley Harvest Has Ripened Early
He Has Not the Reserve Strength of
Reed-Allison's Strength Principally
as Dark Aorse-New England Will
Stand by Reed to the End.
Washington, March 1.-THE early
rirening of the Mckinley harvest is the
leading topic of conversation at the Capt.
tol. The great industry and abundant
financial resources Of the MCKINLEY
managers, the jooose manner in which
the local newspapers speak of his politi-
cal enissaries as "Hanna's commercial
travellers, 'and the other interesting feat.
ures CT the Obi canvass, have attracted
much attention, but have hardly excited
d corresponding degree of alarm among
the friends Of other candidates. McKin-
ley may Lad on the first ballot, but 1t is
pointed but that he will have nowhere
near the. reserve strength that is charac-
teIisUic OF the Reed support.
rms washington Star publishes this
evening the results of an investigation
which 1t has been making the past week
lnto the positions OF the Candidates,
especially with reference to the early Nc
klnley dash. The Star say that, on the
present basis of representation, 456 votes
Will De necessary TO nominate candidates
Tor President and Vice President at the
republican national convention. Mokin-
ley will proha ply be well in the lead ON
The nrst ballot at the ST. Louis oonven-
tlon. In the contest for delegates, as it
now stands, it is the field against the
1fIn a nd date RrOaH boi
made by McKinley's friends, and in
many instances these claims cannot be
tested because of the Unsettled situation
IN many states counted for him. The
indications are that he will have in the
neighborhood of 262 delegates on the
first ballot 1t is claimed by his antago-
nis6s that he will receive his highest vote
on the first TWO ballots 1t is conceded
that
REED WILL HAVE THE NEXT
hig hest number of votes
wu weal points in the case of Ohio's
ars thsS the boom is too we'll developed
far i'll advance OF the convention, thus
enco uraging The rivals to throw darts at
II; and unat it depends too much upon
me Southern vote. The Southern uele-
gaIluns are not generally regarded as a
SAFE reliance, and, i'll the present. in
et.ilce, there will be con testing delega-
CONS from several of the Southern states
in UnSse cases of contest, the choice is
apt 60 depend upon the complexion OF
iAe convention as determined by the ma
Jotl5y Of delegates without contests. For
taIs leason, Mckinley might have to
control the convention before he could
add tiiese contestants to his column. IN
n hos ind
iced, and there are two Sets OF delesales
fontestlng tor the other six places. Gno
delegation is for Morton and tine other
or Mckinley. This delegation, whnc
claimed, cannot be counted Tor Mc-
kiDley unless he controls the convention
without 1T.
Mississippi presents contest. While
both delegations at the outse5 were sup
posed to be for Mckinley, it is believed
that incidents of the fight have rendered
it probable that one of these delegations
will he nti-MckinleY here again the
is rendered unavailable in
aiding the Ohio candidate TO control the
convention organization.
A similar situation is expected to affect
the delegations OF South Carolina, Ala
bama, Louisiana amt 1ezRs, which will
probably send contestlng delegations.
1t is, therefore, possible that 136 delegates,
or IuOSt CT those Iepl eSentlng these states
will have nothing to do vita the tenn
purafy organization.
Tle present indications are that Me-
kinley wall go into the convention with
apuht is votes from Arkansas, about 20
wees frUm Indiana, 20 votes from Kan
sas. So from Missouri, 46 from Ohio, 81
]. 0g4l Oregon, 16 from Tennessee, from
Virginia, II from West Virginia and 2a
from Wisconsin. Besides these 1914 votes
ne is liable to get at the start six frop,
Alabama, six from Delaware, six from
Illinois, 10 from Indiana, two from
Nebraska, II from North Carolina, six
from North Dakota and (at leasb) ID in
Georgia,
MAKING IN ALL 1852,
that there is a reasonable prospect of his
having on the first ballot. The uncertain
ties in this estimate may safely be
reokoned as Offset by tie uncertainties
among those counted as nor favorable
to the Ohio candidate.
In all the estimates politicians are now
making the delegates are divided into
Simply Mckinley and anti-Mokinley
classes, as the first tight is expected to
come III that form. The votes calculated
as most apt not to be cast for Mckinley
$; Idaho Is; Illinois LIMOS, a A.;
Maryland, 16; Montana, 6; Nebraska, IA;
Nevada, g., New Jersey, 20; New York,
~; North Carolina, s.; Pennsylvania, 80;
Utah, 8; Minnesota, Is; South Dakota,
8; Tennessee, 81 making All. This
leaves 1876 votes in doubt or divided as
betw een Mckinley and the field: Georgia,
IL; Kentucky, %; Missouri, A.; Virginia,
IS; Washington, s; Wisconsin, 2; Wy
oming, 8; Arizona, 2: New Mexico, 8;
Oklahoma, 2; District of Colum bia, 2;
Indian Territory, 2; Alaska, Q; and
Pennsylvania, 4; in addition to 106 dele
gates contested. Of these, IN ost of the
michigan and Kentucky votes are apt
Ii Il