New-York tribune., 1896-11-17
WHY WHEAT RISES.

y,,hoo, hoe r,,en marnifcently and has power
fully contributed to the revival Oh pu''"''
bringing millions more OF foreign Soio 'h'o ''e
country Its rise has been suiilcient "''"ou'
tho 0,titious quotations which represent no
actual transactions. The real advance "i -
cents since September = is enough to excite the
enthusiasm and to indicate the gains which
farmers are realizing. When the first rise ca'''e
about the middle OF October many remennpereu
how often violent speculative advances hau p'c"
followed by disastrous collapse. ana 'ooKed 'o'
a repetition of the experience the "o'ern'"e"'
report for October ! commanded no cohilu'"'c
then and has none now. 1t has al no 'ifhe W."
sustained by the recorded movement. "h''" ''''
been large from Western farms ana from d"
c,oc nor,s The Western receipts since July
bove beor 100000 bushels larger than last
wear. Eut the real question is not whether
American supplies are large. put "he'"'i
needs are extraordinary.
Within the last month all doubt rega'di's '"e
deficiency Of important foreign crops has Deeh
r.,,oved Latest advices tend to sustain To the
r,u tho estimates made I'm Europe n month
ago that this country would be called upon
for NJ least 10 600 600 bushels more wheat thah
was reouired last year. This Increase in demand
has clearly justified a higher price. even IL 'hs
production IL as large as the best c"in'h'r''"'
authorities estimate. The exports wouiu III
that case he from 11G.G9O.OoO bushels upward
and with the J+.OOOOO0 allowed for seed ana
335 900 600 for food at the ordinary rate. wou'u
require n supply Of 565. .69o.00O bushels. of when
about 1SOOOOp0 in excess OF tn" minimum
stocks were brought over from previous years
July | so that yield Of less than oo"""'""
bushels would leave the market uncomtor'apF
harn The Government report OF li.' push'iS
per acre. on the acreage oiicialiy rePo'''"
,ronths ago works out by states yield OF
4l2 2OOO0O0 bushels. so that any Increase IN
the exports nigh, probably bc prevented with
such a Weld by higher prices here. But happily
there is every reason to disregard entreN 'he
Governments estimate OF acreage
Tho official method ~ reporting Is emn'ntly
calculated f. promote blunders by confusing
each year the area finally harvested with the
area sown hv ignoring the resolving whore
winter wheat has been Killed. and by carrying
forward each year In percentages all the blunders
o., previous years Official figures make the
acreage in ls9J about G.ODp..o. or - per cent
smaller than in 1891. but there was no evidence
whatever that such "A decrease had occurred
on the contrary. the rapid settlement OF the
great wheat growing States. their remarkable
Increase IN population and In votes cast the IN
creased tonnage 90 wheat moved 10y the rai-
roads from such States and the enormous IN
crease In sales ~ harvesting machines all
tend TO support the belief that IN" acreage sown
is nearly. II not quite. as large as ever. lf so
the commercial estimates of this years Yield
would ic more than justified even 10y IN" Gov
crnm.ni's report = outcome per acre. on no
other reasonable suppOsition can the fact be-
explained that the official reports for the last
nv. wears have fallen BOG 900 900 bushels below
rt,.
Official story Is that that consumption has been
reduced but thorough investigation 10y ex-
pcris has failed 10 find any evidence to sup
port that theory. Moreover. that explanation
would require. In order to nt the facts. de-
crease in consumption during the years l>H'-''
Inclusive OF almost n third. whereas record.
prove tha, there has been no such decrease In
-four MANUFACTURED and that even after the
panic Of 1873 the consumption did not diminish
a tenth Of bushel. or as much as fortieth
part.
The market has risen vigorously. but not as II
would II ANYBODY credited official reports. The
average prc. in July G2 cents and In
August G3 cents and though the strong rise
began In September. II was but GG ID cents In
that month, and 1J.G1 In October. IL was about
the same In 1892. and has been much lower
In October ever since But in lS0l. when for
cign crops were remarkably short and about
226 OOOOO bushels were exported. the price
averaged over 81 per bushe for the last five
months. and for the first two months in lA!2
There is no indication at present Of 80 great
scarcity abroad this year. even at the worst
and foreign purchases have been very much
reduced by the advance In price already realized
But when the extent Of foreign deficiency is
more definitely known. further advance here
might not improbably be realized.