Evening star., 1896-09-30
Both Parties Have Been Revising
Their Figures on the Outcome.
DEMOCRATS CLAIM $4,000 PLURALITY
Republicans Assert That Mckinley
Will Win by 1900.
AN IMPARTIAL VIEW
Of The Evening Star.

INDIANAPOLIS, September %, 1896
Both parties have been engaged in the
work of revising their figures as to what
will be the result of the election, and there
is a difference between them of something
More than 100000. Both parties agree that
the total vote this year will reach 515,OO0.
or about 1900 in excess of that Of 1894.
Both parties are beating the bushes and
scraping the sand piles in search Of voters,
and using every known effort to get them
SO enthusiastically worked up as to assure
their being out on election day. At dem
ocratic headquarters they have gone into
the per cent business in their figuring, and
with paper and pencil can figure out glo-
rious victory. In 1894 the democrats ani
populists combined cast about 4S per cent.
Of the vote and the republicans
little more than 80 per cent. TAX
ing that as basis. and presuming the
total vote this year will be 575.OOO, the
democrats figure that they will have with
their vote and that of the populists COM
bined, 276OO0 They claim they will gain
from free silver republicans, 10000; free
silver prohibitionists, 1000, and will get
back 12,W) democrats VINO strayed away
in 1894, thus giving them a total of 313,NU.
They admit they will lose total of 22.0O0
to Palmer and Mckinley being the strength
of the sound money feeling among the
297 600.
On the fifty per cent basis they give the
republicans 2S9,OO0 with a gain of 1900
from the sound money democrats, making
total OF :sO1 ,UD from which must be de-
Quoted the loss they will sustain of 3o,0U
free silver men of their own party, and
1000 democrats returned to the fold, max
ing tctal loss of $1,000. leaving them
with a final vote Of 253G0O. Taking @59,OD
from the $4,000 they claim they have
plurality of 3S,U00.
The Republicans Claim.
To this proposition the republican man
ayers will not agree. They take a much
more rosy view of the situation and figure
for themselves a victory that would do for
Ohio or Pennsylvania in good republican
year. They do agree, however in the DEM
ocratic estimate of the sound money feel
Ing in that party, and place il at 1909
for Palmer, but they claim that Mckinley
wil get much larger democratic vote
than that accorded him. They say they
Will get 50 per cent, or $500, of the new
vote, while the democrats will get but &c
per cent, or 400 They also claim that
Bryan cannot get all of the populist vote,
even If fusion is agreed upon. 1t ought to
be said that the above calculation of the
democrats is based upon fusion with the
populists. The republicans also claim they
will get as many from the prohibtionsts
as will Bryan. Their figures are: Vote of
1894. 2s3.5O0 gain from new vote, $500
from democrats, 10000; from prohibition
lists. 1000 making a total of 324 .GOo. from
which they will lose of free silver repub-
licans. 10000, leaving them with a vote of
314, 900.
They give to the democrats: Vote of 1894
23S 732: gain from new vote, 24OO: from
free silver republicans, 1oG,0: from free
silver prohibitioniSts, l,0OO: from populsts
2o,Wo. making total of 2I1 900. From this
they deduct a loss to the republicans of
10000 and to Palmer, 10000, or 10000 in ALL
leaving them with vote of 2:i7,OO0. or
actually less than they had in 1854 Sub
tracing 237 900 from the vote they claim
for themselves, 314,00o, they have left
very handsome and attractive plurality of
1900.
1t will be seen that the republicans claim
exactly the same number of gains from the
democrats that the democrats claim they
will make from free silver republicans.
Somebody is at fault. The republicans IN
making their figures. put the plmber Of
free silver republicans at 10000, but saw
there are not more than one-third of that
number in the state. They also say that
while they have counted 5000 popuists for
Bryan. he will not get more than 5000.
With such an array of fig ures, enc would
naturally expect happy state OF feeling
at both headquarters, but such is far from
feeling of unrest and insecurity at both
places: This, however, is much more To-
tioeable at the democratic rooms.
An Impartial Estimate.
For more than twenty years The Star
correspondent has been taking observations
during political campaigns in Indiana, and
casting horoscopes. and his observations
this year convince him that at TIE present
Mr.. Mckinley has much the best of the sit
uation. From all he can gather, the repub-
licans will make a net gain this year over
their vote OF two years ago, of an average
OF three to the precinct, or a total of 5000
They will also have the best of the new
vote. Ny figures are: Republicans-vot of
1924. $4,000; gain Irom democrats, 5000;
from new vote, 1900. or total of $4,000
The democrats will have-Vote of 1894.
2SSO0O; gain from the populists, 25.OOO;
from the prohibitionists, 1000; from new
vote, 5000. or a total of 269,UOO, from which
must be deducted 5000 lost to the republi-
cans and 10000 to Palmer, a total loss of
1900. leaving them 100000, making a re-
publican plurality Of 1000.
Unless a revolution occurs, which now
locks improbable, the result in November
will not vary 5000 from these figures. If
any charge at all is made, it will be in
favor of Mckinley. and may push mis- plu-
rality up toward 60,O0D