The San Francisco call., 1896-10-31
.WASHBURa,s BOLD BLUFF.
'Bcdstss That the POpuIists HftI Elect Mr..
o Bru0sl

:Bcdstss That the Popultsts HftL Elect Mr..
Bryan.
CHICAGO, ILL.,, Oct 30.-The following
final statement from the Populist side as
to election-day PROBABILITIES and expecta-
tions throughout the country was given
tonight to the United Associated Presses
by Chairman Washburn of the Chicago
headquarters -.
In view OF the fact that the people are anxi-
Jous to know what com blnations OF States are
liable TO win, have grouped together several,
any group of which is liable 10 be the correct
one on election day. 1t is conceded that the
Democratic gold desertion will be Offset by the
i, silver Republicans, which leaves the normal
condition of the two parties the same. Then
add 10 the Democratic vote the 2 200, 600 of
PopuIist votes and it is apparent that Bryan
must win. Fortunately the Populist vote Is
largest in the States where 1T is most needed;
and while Bryan cannot wan without it, he is
sure to win with it and will get the full
Populist vote.
{. In analyzing the vote of the country have
grouped as Bryan States the agricultural and
mining States, where the gold Democratic de-
ofection and floating vote is smallest, and
where the success of that ticket depends on
the farmers who have been educated on the
silver question Through school-house and al
. lance meetings, and who would feel insulted
if offered price for their vote or were coereed
in any manner. Therefore, 1t is conceded that
the thirty-one States west OF the Mississippi and
south of the Ohio River, representing 242
electoral votes, or eighteen more than needed,
are theOStates which Bryan is mostly to Garry,
and the States which are comparatively sure
for Mckinley are the six New England States,
together with New Jersey and Pennsylvania,
representing eighty-oneoeiectoral votes.
The doubtful States are the Middle Western,
including Illinois, Indiana Michigan, Ohio
and Wisconsin, together with New York max
fng 124 electoral votes. 1t ois apparent TO any
political student that while Bryan can be
elected by hall dozen different combina-
tions, on the other hand Mckinley must
carry every, Eastern State, togetherowitn every
one OF the Central West doub btful States in
order TO win Therefore he has one chance
where Bryan has six. While Bryan can win
without the doubtful States, his chances for
carrying them are better than McKinley's
and should he get them all it would prove to
be veritable landslide. OF the thirty-one
Bryan States the most doubtful are Iowa.
Kentucky, Delaware and Maryland. We can
lose Iowa and Delaware, or Kentucky and
Delaware or Maryland and Delaware and still
win without carrying single doubtful State
'' in the Middle West. We can give Mckinley
all OF the Eastern and Middle Western or
doubtful States, together with Iowa or Ken
lucky or Maryland and Delaware, ana then
win.
OF the doubtful States Ohiois most likely to
furnish the greatest surprise. The silver Re-
publican vote will be enormous, Our most
conservative reports of Illinois, Indiana and
Michigan give these three States TO Bryan
Now concede the other three doubtful States
New York, Ohio and. Wisconsin-and we can
u,
Delaware, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oregon,
West Virginia Minnesota and Iowa and still
win. Again, we can carry Indiana and Michi-
5 gan, which, are sure for Mr.. Bryan, and lose
Illinois, Ohio. New York and Wisconsin, and
in addition to all this give them Kentucky,
Maryland, Delaware, North Dakota, West Vir-
c ginia and Iowa and all the Eastern States, and
We can still win. There are several other
combinations which include States naturally
for Bryan and which in q like manner would
enable him to win.
In Illinois Bryan will carry the State outside
OF. Chicago by between 10000 and 40, 900
majority The uncertainty is Chicago with
It's OO,OoO. unplaced votes. If Bryan carries
this city heswill carry the State, aud no COM
bination can beat him in the rest of the States:
In former years the floating vote could be
bought, but there was only one or two pivotal
States. While it is possible to buy the floating
vote OF single State, 1t is not possible to buy
up the whole Nation. Then, again, in former
years the floating vote was indifferent to the
results. This year every man has strong con-
victions and will secretly vote them in the
booth, whether he takes any money or not
Possession is nine points OF the law. Bryan
has already enough States TO win with more
than an equal chance in the doubtful States.
and only needs to hold his own. He will be
our next President.
WASHINGTON, .. c., Oct. SO.-sena-