The Jersey City news. (Jersey City [N.J.]) 1889-1906, 1896-08-06

gaining strength is one of great interest
and importance. It is also very hard
te answer because adherents of both sill
yer and gold obscure the truth by their
statements. This is not always inten-
tsonal. The hopes and wishes of the
p-artssans speak loudest in their own
ears. and they finally take for fact what
they would like to see true.
One has to go to the very beginning
to get some idea of the truth and It is
rather by a study of abstract probability
than by any actual observation that an
approximate realization of h situation
may be reached.
In this county, for instance, if the
been embodied in the Chicago platform.
it can hardly be doubted that the Demo-
cratic Electoral ticket would have re-
ceived a handsome majority. In the
G-ubernatoria contest, Chancellor McGnl
got 1904 more votes than Mr.. Griggs. We
do not thing 1t unreasonable to think
that a real Democrat would have got
at least as good a plurality.
The nomination of William Mckinley
had no effect on the situation. It was
acceptable to practically the entire body
OF Republican voters, but excited no
special enthusiasm among them. We are
NOT aware of any Democratic votes that
1T attracted except those of Mr.. William
H. speer and Mr.. Robert Carey. On
the other hand, ye do not think it es-
trangea any Republican votes-eertainly
no considerable number.
The nomination of Nh. Bryan differed
antipodally in its effects. 1t had, at
once, q tremendous effect on the voters.
The instant it was made a very large
body Of Democrats Immediately seeded
from the party-so far as this National
ticket was concerned. How numerous
was this secession? It is hard TO say;
but It would be idle to comput 1t at less
than eight thousand voters. It includes
a vast numbers of employees of railways
and financial institutions and persons in
terested in the same. It includes nearly
all the Democrats in the county who
are in business for themselves. 1t in
cludes Democratic professional men al
most without exception. It Includes a
large number of holders of life Insurance
policies or certificates and owners of
building and loan association shares. It
includes most owners of real estate.
We are indeed convinced that the num-
Der of seceders is nearer to 1900 than
to 5000; but we will take the latter figure
10 be nearer right. The politicians who
find the ward club meetings as well at
tended as usual may have their doubts;
but the classes we have enumerated do
not ATTEND ward meetings. They always
remain an unknown quantity until the
vote IS counted.
One more remark: There are two ways
in which these voters will make their
secession fe:t. Probably about half of
them-say 5,0O0-wfll vote for Major Nc.
Kinley. Two thousand nine hundred and
ffty-two of tbem, dong this. will suffice
to wipe out the MECH majority. Every
vote changed in this way viii count like
Two. The rest will refuse to vote for
either candidate. Their influence viii not
be quite so severely felt.
Now we do not think any of these
votes can be won back to Bryan and
silver. If a Gold Democratic ticket is
named. no doubt nearly all of them
would be cast for IT. and probably several
thousand other Democratic votes besides.
The Democratic votes that are against
Bryan are against him TO stay. Their
revolt is founded on understanding and
conviction, upon principle and patriotism.
They cannot be brought back.
The question then is: What gains can
Bryan and silver make from the Repub-
lican party?
We believe the possibilities are very
limited. The greater part of the Repub-
lean party is made up of just the classes
Of persons who are leaving the Democ-
raoy on account Of silver. Barring an
Dceaslonai freak, tine only Republicans
who can be captured are the laboring
dement,, who are not able to understand
the currency question, but who are at
tracted by the gltttering bait of the free
Eilyerites. But this element is exceed
ingiy small in the Republican party, and
even at that. only a fraction of 1t can be
won over. It seems to us that it would
be -eNtra to say that over two
Thousand or twenty-five hundred Re
publican votes could be secured for
Bryan and sewall between now and elec.
ton day. and We doubt whether, in the
long run. five hundred can be captured.
This attempt at an analysis Of this
situation is confined to Hudson county
But its general principles are applicants
IN all parts Of the State. Here is oul
idea Of the situation condensed into
hgures:-
Vote for McGiN in Hudson...... 1854,
Minimum Democratic seceders....s. 500
Democratic vote for Bryan in round
Republican vote for Bryan........-. $50
Probable total vote for Bryan.4-..-.. 21.5N