The Saint Paul globe., 1896-11-30
BALANCE AGAINST EUROPE SO
LARGE SHIPMENTS MUST BE
RESUMED.
LESS ACTIVITY IN STOCKS.
NO GENERAL, INCREASE IN BUSI-
NESS EXPECTED UNTIL THE
NEW YEAR.
HE ASSEMBLING OF CONGRESS
Is Looked Forward To With Great
Interest-Henry CIews' Re-
view.

| Special to the Globe
NEW YORK, Nov. 29.-In his weekly
review Of the financial conditions,
Henry Clews says:
! The course of business in Wall street has
not varied materially from the general tenor
reported in these adviceS of last week. There
has been somewhat less activity in stocks,
but abatement is observable in the ex-
| pectation that higher range OF prices will
be realized after the opening OF the new
| year. At London there has been q better feel
| ing in securities, and the refiux of stocks
and bonds from Europe has almost entirely
ceased, I have already foreshadowed. With
| these latter changes there is sackening in
the demand for foreign exchange and con-
sequent decline in rates. These are good
symptoms; but they have been prevented
/ from having any visible effect upon prices
by the large falling off in the earnings of
the Chicago & Northwestern and the st.
Paul railroads, which has operated unfayor-
ably in London, well here.
We now within three weeks of the
beginning of the winter holidays, and dur
ing the interval financial operations may be
expected to lapse into comparative dullness.
This interim, however, is worthy of some
consideration, for certain drifts are likely to
run through it which may place affairs in
still better condition at the opening Of jan
uary. The wholesale trades will then be on
the verge of opening with the promise Of an
activity aS corresponding to the expectations
which, owing to the late stage in the trade
season, have as yet been only very partially
realized. Also, the large assumptions Of
manufacturing activity will have produced a
more distinct impression upon the retail
trade, and that again will tell favorably upon
the distributing branches, which in turn will
encourage orders at the factories. AS an
effect of the large rise in wheat, the year
will close with more cheerful feeling among
the farmers, and that will produce a more
confident tone among Western buyers coming
to our markets. In many branches Of trade
the year will close with exceptionally low
stocks Of goods, which, in prospect of a
more active demand, is quite likely to pro-
duce rising tendency in prices Of goods cal
culated to stimulate buying.
The outlook in our foreign interests affords
some hopeful probabilities. AS we showed
last week, there is still outstanding a con-
siderable creditor balance on our side of the
international account, even after allowing for
our large settlements as against securities
returned hither from London, Berlin, Paris
and Holland. The London money market is
getting into an easier condition and the
stock market there shows a tendency toward
recovery in prices. Should rates of exchange
here continue to move toward the gold i'm
porting point it is less likely than it
a week or two ago that the Bank Of England
would interfere to prevent shipments of the
metal. 1t seems quite possible therefore that
gold imports may be resumed to moderate
extent; and any such movement would tend
to still greater ease in money here, while
1t would encourage the much-needed conf
dence which an increase in our stock of gold
is calculated to produce, and which is likely
to be somewhat anxiously weighed pending
the public discussion of the currency ques-
tion which may be expected from this time
forward. The recent imports of gold have in
creased the national stock Of the metal to
$625, 900 900, and further additions toward the
maximum stock of $712, 600, 900 held in Octo-
Der, 1888, would largely facilitate the recon
structon of our currency system upon
basis so strongly buttresSed by gold to
command complete restoration of confidence
in American finance. For this reason, impor-
tations of gold have value perhaps more i'm
portant than at any period in our history;
and 1T would be a great boon if the stream
of supply should be turned on again during
the coming month.
1t is not easy to form any definite opinion
upon the course of our securities in the for
eign markets during the next few weeks
The effects of the election abroad have GER
tainly not been what was expected on this
side of the Atlantic; for we have had to take
SIC, 600 of returned securities where we
had anticipated sending out about that
amount. This has no doubt had good deal
OF effect in checking speculation on the large
sound money vote and it has arrested the
declining tendency in the local rates for
money by increasing the loans against col
laterals; but, comparatively, this is mat
ter of only transient moment. The lately re-
turned securities amount to approximately
per cent of the estimated holdings Of Amer
lean investments in Europe. These realiz-
ings therefore hardly be invested with
any significance as expressing foreign ver-
dict on our credit, and they were perhaps due
as much as anything to bankers expedients
for checking the extraordinary flow of gold
in this direction. Be this as it may 1t Is
quII6 luCESulDle Sucn an achievement
in behalf of sound money and stable govern
ment as was afforded by the election should
have no effect in strengthening our credit
throughout Europe. 1t must have that ef-
feet; and therefore it Is likely to create a
new demand for our investments; but 1t is
possible that the demand may be deferred un-
til the London money market becomes more
settled and until events make it more ap-
parent what is likely to be the drift of cur
rency legislation. Upon the whole, it is
within the range Of reasonable hope that
the new year, with its reinvestments of
interest earnings, may bring a better for
eign demand for American securities.
The assembling of congress is looked for
ward to with interest but with no anxieties
1t is taken for granted that, pending the
brief remaining period of the present admin
istration, no serious legislation will be at
tempted beyond provision for the deficiencies
OF revenue; and should the new president call
an extra session, it is probable that it will
confine its work chiefly to a revision of the
tariff in the interest of such an increase Of
revenue as will amply provide for the public
expenditures. II any measure looking to a.
reform of the currency should be introduced
in the present congress-, it would perhaps be
ion on the question; for there can be no
possibility Of getting any sound money leg7
islation through the present senate. What
ever, therefore, is likely to be the action of
congress on this important question nothing
intended as finality may be expected before
December, 1897. Wall street. therefore will
be exempt from the influence of this factor
for the next twelve MONTHS and so far It
Will have peace; which is no small gain for
financial stability in these unsettled times
From this summary view of the condi-
fiTnc OFF