The Indianapolis journal. [volume] (Indianapolis [Ind.]) 1867-1904, 1896-01-24
OUR NEXT PRESIDENT
WILL BE A REPUBLICAN, But ALL
ARE GUESSING AS TO HIS NAME.
As Votes VIII He Necessary to Nom.
mate, and 224 Electoral Votes Will
BE Required for Success.
Henry L. stoddard. in New York Mail and

10 FISK a prediction at this TINE as 10 HIS
name. Not often has the situation been
more complicated than 1t is at present, for
there are five avowed candidates in the
field. not counting one who seems to thrust
the crown aside, and yet is feared by eacn
of the competitors as the most dangerous
of all rivals That man is Harrison. {. The
FIVE actively in the race are Morton. Nc
Kinley, Reed, Allison and Cushman h
Davis, of Minnesota. They will nave SOS
votes for which to compete in convention.
and the candidate who gets 455 OF them
will take the prize. After he Is thus en-
tered in the presidential race as the choice
of his party he will need to gather up 22i
electoral votes next November in order TO
succeed Mr.. Cleveland in the White House.
No thinking man now doubts that the Re-
publican nominee. whatever his name, VIII
have these necessary pa electoral votes
when the time comes. Indeed, throwing
aside every disputed State. the Republic
ans will have 252 electoral votes. or twen-
ty-eight more than are needed to name the
next President. This would mean a gain
of 107 electoral votes over those obtained
by Harrison in 1S92-a heavy increase to
make. of course, but nnety-eight of these
additional votes are to come from States
whose loyalty to Republicanism has been
demonstrated by too heavy majorities the
past two years to be questioned. These
States are New York. Illinois, Indiana,
Wisconsin. Connecticut and Michigan, the
latter Of which gave five votes TO Cleveland
and nine to Harrison four years ago.
In the electoral college chosen in 1892
Cleveland had 277 votes, Harrison 145 and
Weaver %. Deduct from the Cleveland col
umn the six States named above. with their
ninety-eight votes. and it will be seen that
the Republicans can win even should they
do no better in other States than they did
in 1892. There will, however, need to be a
decided reversal in public opinion In many
parts of the country within nine months II
the Republican electoral ticket Is not TO
gain in other States than in the six have
named. New Jersey, with its $500 plurality
of last year, a Republican Legislature and
solid delegation in Congress. surely should
be a fruitful field for Republicanism next
fall. Maryland with a Republican Gov
ernor and Legislature and Republican
Senator, with German dethroned and an
honest vote in Baltimore assured. is GER
tanly debatable, If not already captured.
So, too, with Delaware, West Virginia,
entering wedges into the Bourbon South.
and Colorado, Kansas and Idaho. which
have largely outgrown the Populist fanat-
icism Of four years ago.
BRIGHT REPUBLICAN OUTLOOK.
1t will surely not be contended that sim
gle one of the 145 electoral votes cast for
Harrison is at all doubtful this year. The
Republicans, therefore. have only to hold
these, and get in addition Connecticut, New
York, illinois and Indiana or Wisconsin, in
order to have a majority of the electoral
college. They can lose either Indiana or
Wisconsin and still win, even should they
not carry another vote outside of the 1897
column and Connecticut, Illinois and New
York.
Does any one doubt that this can be done
and that too, without straying off after
strange gods CT Elusive isms?
These figures show that the five Western
States which gave Weaver twenty-five cleo
toral votes in 1892 are no longer a menace
Value y9 to the Democrats as to tempt them
into repetition Of their disgraceful ALI
ance with the populists four years ago, un-
less they chose TO DO SO because OF their
own demagogic tendencies. The States In
which the Democrats Joined in support OF
the Populist ticket are Colorado, Idaho,
Kansas, Nevada, North Dakota and Wy0-
publ.canism. In other States the Cieve-
land ticket was withdrawn, except In Ne
vada, where, however. it was practically
vada is the only one Of these States that
has not given Republican majority at the
last two general elections, thus indicating
ings. The Populists have determined. how
ever, to contest them more hercely than
ever next fall, so that it would be just as
well to omit all except Kansas from the GER
tain Republican column. That State is re-
garded by party leaders as far beyond Pop
ulist domination.
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
In view of the discussion of Republican
chances beyond the Mississippi. in the light
of the attitude of the party for sound
money, it may be Of interest to .analyze the
vote of the fourteen States which compose
that group known as far Western States
emitting Utah for the reason that 1T was
not State in 1892. There are eighty elec-
toral votes in this group. Four years age
Harrison carried seven of these States
with forty-four ELECTORAL votes; Weaver
four. having twenty electoral votes. Three
States divided their vote-California giving
eight to Cleveland and one to Harrison,
Oregon giving three to Harrison and one
to Weaver, and North Dakota giving one
to each of the three candidates. The tota
was Harrison, 40; Weaver, p, and Cleve-
land, 8. The Republican ticket this year
will have more than an even chance In al
of these States except Nevada, which Is
certain to go with the silver men. Indeed
Colorado, Idaho and North Dakota are re-
garded as the only States in which Re-
publican success Is not entirely probable
With Utah in line, therefore. the chance:
favor the securing of seventy out of the
eightythree electoral votes from this trans
Mississippi group. with the Republicans as
| Stunning the same stand for sound money as
| they took in 1892.
l understand that the Populists and Dem
| ocrats talk of combining again as they
did in 1892, but ii Is doubtful whether any
national campaign manager would dare
| thus to commit his party TO Populist senti
ment, in view of the situation at Washing
| the East. On the basis of the figures giver
/ above, 1t would not seem that more thar
| ten or a dozen electoral votes would b
| imperiled by Populist sentiment. There Il
| of the party should not have free and full
| enuncis ton in the ST. Louis platform am
| in the personality Of the candidate Their
| to be named. Republicans who timidl.
| approach the money question should. there
| fore, analyze the vote of the silver state
| the past two years, so as 10 realize how
\ small a factor they are likely TO be in de
| terminfng who will be the next President
| At Washington to-day. in the work o
| passing the revenue bill they amount Z
mean exactly seven votes in the electora
| college coming from Colorado and Nevada
A phase of the situation which have no
| included in the review above Is the proba
| West Virginia, Maryland. Kentucky or Ten
| nessee. Certainly there Is substantie
! ground on which to base the belief tina
some of these States will choose Republica
| electors this fall. Three OF them. perhap
| four will have Republican Senators a
| Washington and the other-Tennessee-ha
| elected a Republican Governor Why not
| then. Republican presidential electors? O
| the basis OF recent votes. not one or thes
| five States should be omitted from Repuh
l 49,. 10 a