Evening star., 1896-10-24
THE MUDDLE IN TEXAS
Both the Dsmccratic and Populist Parties
Are Badly Split
Republicans Think There is n Fight
ing Chance to Carry the State
The Vote Analysed.
of The e, eniny Star.

The political situation in Texas has been
in such a muddle for some time past as
to defy the perceptive powers of the most
astute politicians in the state. The stua-
tion las been complicated by the extent
and variety Of the fusion arrangements
between democrats and populists and re-
publicans and populists and the unusual
manifestation Of nonspartisan Independent,
political sentiment. The republican vote in
the state will be practically unanimous for
Mckinley and Hobart. and for the party
nominees for Congress. but will be con-
siderably divided on the state ticket. 1t
will be larger by at least Is per cent than
ever before, due to the natural increase
and to the fact that for the first time
since reconstruction was accomplished the
republicans believe they have a good chance
to carry the state for their national ticket.
Democrats and Populists Split.
The democratic party is probably worse
split up in Texas than In any other of the
southern state, because OF intense dissat-
isfaction ith the action OF the state execu-
tive committee. which brought about an
unalterable division, ard beca Use of the
alleged state house ring which is in con-
troll OF the party machinery, which enables
those in ofiice to perpetuate their rule
either by continuing in Office or by deter
mining their successors. The revolt is
| cause in this state there is no fear of negro
donsn alton. as there is in some of the
cotton states IN which The negro popula-
ton is pI edominant.
The popuiist party is split into three fac
tions. representing the Bryan and Sewall,
Bryan and Watson and Mckinley and Ho-.
bart tickets The middle-of-the-road pop
| ulists. who are greatly in the majority,
| will either vote for Bryan and Watson Or
Mckinley and Hobart, but in what proper
tion 1t Is at this time Impossible to say.
Three weeks ago the republican ticket, not
withstanding the efforts at fusion in that
direction, could not have claimed more
than per cent of them. Today the :ndi-
cations are decidedly more favorable. 1t
would probably not be far out of the way
to say that with the present feeling Of
sentiment against the m anagers of Mir.
Bryan's campaign ard the fierce denuncia-
ton of democracy by the popllist leal-
ers the trend is toward Mckinley, and
the probability is that the Chicago ticket
will not receive more than limited per
cent Of the populist vote.
Relative Voting Strength.
In 1855 the whole vote cast in the state
footed up :'j1,5l3. of which Cleveland
ceived 23l.ss3 and Harrison IS. 40. In 1892
the total vote reached AL. Al. the aggre-
gate democratic and republican vote near
ly the same as in 1SSS, the increase going
to the popuIist party ticket. In 1894 the
total vote was increased to i31 Oy0, and in
this election the populists polled, in round
figures, 100000 votes and the democrats
241 600 In 1896 the total vote is expected
to reach 2GO,O0.
The immigration into south Texas dur
Ing the last three or four years has been
mainly from the populistic western states.
Increasing the populst vote That into
north Texas is mostly republican. If the
pc pulist vote were concentrated on its
party electoral ticket this year it would
probably reach 10000. The republicans
"a an a a : hoy
did in 1883, but ii is admitted that mean
while the party has been growing stronger
year by year. end with such an inducement
as the hope of victory 1t Is only reasonable
to expect that il will show an inherent
strength of 1250o0 votes. There are proba-
lily G0WO sourd money democrats in Texas
who will not vote for Bryan. AT least fl
| per cent of item will vote for Mckinley.
Probably not more than 30 per cent of the
Populist vote VIII be cast for the Bryan
and Watson ticket when election day comes
round If the expectations of the leaders
are realized, as the result of fusion, at
| least 80 per cent of the remainder will vote
for Mckinley. giving the republican cleo
tors a net gain of 10 per cent. or 17Gf3
votes. Add together the Mckinley vote and
subtract the sound money gold standard
from the democratic total. and the count
stands: For Mckinley, 1S9, 600: for BRYAN
| and Sewall, 174,O0O.
Majority Will Not he Large.
1t is not pretended that these figures are
accurate or based upon anything more
solid and substantial than an intelligent
estimate of the relative voting strength
of the parties as the present situation in
dicates. The strength Of the republican
populist fusion is not yet definitely known.
1t has not fully developed. The claim made
by the democratic press and leaders is
that the masses of the populists are un-
alterably for free silver, and cannot be
persuaded to follow their leaders into the
,liSfc
Congress in the first district has Just come
out in favor of the republican electoral
ticket, and says he is moved to this course
by the advice and desires of his party con-
stituents as much as bN his own desires
in the matter. for the reason that they are
more interested In the success of their own
state ticket and in the law-making branch
Of the general government than in the elec-
ton Of a President. With the populist re-
publican and anti-Bryan democratic vote
concentrated on the populist state ticket,
its election would be assured, and the same
combination by united action could give the
state to Mckinley by handsome majority,
but many republicans will not vote the
populist state ticket, and many popuIists