The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1896-09-14
CONTINUED IMPORTS OF THE VEL
LOW METAL ARE EASING
THE MARKET.
!. WILL REACH s4o,ooo,ooo
BEFORE THE BALANCE OF TRADE
WILL TURN THE TIDE THE
OTHER WAY.
HENRY cLEws IS HOPEFUL
Reap the Profits After
Election.

NEW YORK, Sept. 13.-In his week
ly review Of the financial situation in
Wall street, Henry Clews says:
The various interests centering in Wall
street continue to show the symptoms Of a
recovery OF confidence which have become
steadily more apparent for two or three
weeks past On the one hand, the conviction
has gained ground that an unnecessary inten-
sity of alarm has been encouraged by TAX
ing the gravest possibilities of the situation
at their worst and making insufficient allow
ance for the counteractions and preventions
which great public danger always begets ;
and, on the other, the shaping and drift of
political forces are construed as so directly
in favor of the ascendency of sound money
policy that the election is looked to as end
ing the dangers of the silver mania and in
PRODUCING new era of confidence and of
national prosperity. Coneurrenty with these
assuring tendencies has come an influx of gold
from Europe which has enabled the banks to
voluntarily increase the gold in the treasury
and, at the same time, has warded off q
threatened stringency in money from which
serious results were, two or three weeks ago.
apprehended. The amount of gold already
imported and on the way Is about $27 GOO 600
and, although large and sudden movements
OF this kind are always attended with tenn
porary checks and reactions those best sit
uated to judge anticipate that the gold i'm
ports will reach $40 900 to $45, 900, 900 be-
fore they cease. AS this amounts to an i'm
portant' augmentation of the reserves of the
banks, the approximations. of stringency are
working steadily towards condition of ease.
The banks consequently are showing more
disposition TO lend; and the distress caused
in commercial circles through the difficulty
IN procuring discounts is steadily abating.
One gratifying feature in the discount mar
ket Is the comparative absence OF any dis
trust among the banks about the commercial
situation The fact that merchants have SO
well w1thstood the strain upon credit for SO
long period is regarded as evidence of the
general soundness Of the mercantile situation;
and where any curtailment Of discounts is
apparent, it is more due to the banks not
having yet been able to restore their reduced
reserves than to any misgvings about the
safety of borrowers. As the gold imports
increase, this cause of restriction OF credit
must, however, disappear.
These are all solid improvements in the sit
uatlon They imply real change in the
public estimate of the chances of an ex-
tinctiOn of the silver danger. They show
that judgment and calm discretion have
gained the ascendency over an undiscrimin-
ating public fright. They are evidences that
point has been reached at which people
understand that while free coinage If 1t
were enacted, would be a catastrophe beyond
all estimate. yet the thing is an impossibility
10 the practical common 7ense, the hono and
the native conservatism of a ma Srl,y of the
American people. Thus financial opinion and
the opinion of business interests at large
stand upon a distinctly higher and more
trustworthy basis than a few weeks ago:
and that change has been taken with a DELHI
Grafton and strictness of caution which will
save 1t against any relapse. 1t is under these
circumstances that the market for securities
has shown such marked recovery in values
and that Europe also exhibits a material re-
coyery OF confidence in our investments.
There Is, however, a limit to the extent to
which this Improvement may be safely trust
ed to go within the next few weeks. There
Is naturally disposition to defer large buy
ing operations until the outcome of the cleo
lions is finally ascertained, and until the
money market has settled into the easier
condition that attends the ret1ux of currency
sent to the interior during the fall months.
Also, we may expect some European counter
actions to our current large importations of
gold. Notwithstanding the extraordinary
largeness of the past steady accumulations of
gold on the other side of the Atlantic the
banks there are unwilling to part with any
considerable amount of the metal Although
the Bank of England has today about S.
100000 more gold than at the same date of
1895 and ST., 900, 900 more than in 1894. vet on
Thursday it advanced its rate of discount to
21a per cent.
This is doubt partly due to London
being drawn upon to compensate for our
Withdrawals from other centers, and partly
also to the demands from Austria and Russia
for the purpose Of advancing their currency
reforms; but 1t nevertheless has a tendency
for the moment to check shipments to the
United States. The demand from our side
has the advantage that 1t rests purely upon
bona fide condition of the commercial ex-
changes and therefore must be satisfied: while
the wants Of Austria and Russia are extrane-
Gus to the trade movement and therefore
uldy tHcUuHleT LnS OBSTACLE OF higher rates
than the Vienna and st. Petersburg banks
are willing to pay. 1t therefore may result
that those purchasers will have to moderate
their transactions until turn In our ex-
change sends back some of the gold we are
now importing. So far, we see no abatement
of the large export movement in our chief
staples nor of the curtaiment in imports of
merchandise, and the prospect still remains
good that the current imports of gold will be
continued until they reach forty to fifty mil
lions.
Present conditions and the prospects from
now until the November election may in
view of the foregoing factors, be reasonably
construed as warranting judicious selections
Of bonds and of stable stocks for investment.
So far as respects transient purchases for a
profit on fluctuations in prices, buying would
appear to have the advantage over selling;
but margins should be ample and good profits
should be accepted. After the election, If
we may not hope for so complete a recon
struction Of financial conditions as may seem
desrable-(for much must depend on the com
position Of the house and more on the attitude
of refractory senate)-yet great revival
Of confidence may reasonably be looked for;
so that investments made between now and
the day of election will be almost sure to
yield a high rate of remuneration.