The Norfolk Virginian. [volume] (Norfolk, Va.) 186?-189?, 1896-10-31
Chairman Washburn Gives Out a Analytical
Statement Regarding the Outlook.
BRYAA'S CHANCES SIX TO M'KlHLFY ONE
SIX combinations. oil Reasonable,
May be Imagined by Which the
democratic Candidate Can Win
but There is Only ono for McKfn.
iey-Ohto Regarded as Doubtful.

Chicago, Oct. 30.-The following final
statement from the Populist side as to
eiection day probabilities and eXpecta-
tions throughout the country was given
OUT tonight TO the Southern Associated
Press by Chairman Washburn, of the
Chicago headquarters:
In view of the fact that the people are
anxious to know what combinations of
States are liable to win, l have grouped
them together, any group of which is
nabie TO be the correct one on election
uay. 1t is conceded that the Democratic
gold detection will be Offset by the silver
fepubiicans. which leaves the normal
conditions of the two parties the same.
Then add to the Democratic vote the
2,OoO.00o of Populist votes and it is APP
parent that Bryan must win Fortu-
nately the Populist vote is largest i'm
States where it is most needed. ana
While Bryan cannot win without 1t, he
is sure to win with it, and will get the
full Populist vote
HOW CAN HE LOSE?
I'm analyzing the vote of the country
l have grouped as Bryan States the
Agricultural and mining States, where
the gold Democratic detection and float
Ing vote is smallest, and where the sue
cess of the ticket depends on the farmers
who have been educated on the silver
question through schoolhouse and alli-
ance meetings, and who would be in
suited IL offered q price for their vote
or were coerced in any manner. There
tore, it is conceded that the thirty one
states west OF the Mississippi and south
or the ONO river, representing 242 elec-
toral votes, or eighteen more than
needed. are the States which Bryan is
most likely to carry and the States
which are comparatively sure for Nc
klniey are the New England States,
together with New Jersey and Penn
sylvanin, representing eighty-one cleo
toral votes. The doubtful States are the
middle Western, including Illinois, In
diana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin,
together with New York, making 12i
electoral votes. 1t is apparent to anv
political student that while Bryan can
be elected by half Il dozen different com
Dinations, that on the other hand Nc
kiniey must carry every Eastern State,
together with every one of the central
Western doubtful States, in order to
win.
CHANCES SIX TO ONE.
Therefore he has one chance where
Bryan has six. While Bryan cannot win
without the doubtful States, his chances
Tor carrying them are better than Nc
kinley'S, and should he get them all it
would proc to be a veri;able landslide.
of the thirty-one Bryan States the
most doubtful are Iowa, Kentucky. Del
aware. and Maryland We can lose
Iowa and Delaware, or Kentucky and
Delawre, or Mryland and Delaware and
still win, without carrying a single
doubtful State in the Middle Safes We
can give Mckinley all OF the Eastern and
Middle Western or doubtful States to-
gether with Iowa and Kentucky or
MARYLAND and Delaware and then win.
"Of the doubtful States Ohio is the
most likely 10 furnish the greatest sur
prise The silver Republican vote will
be enormous. Our most Conservative
polls and reports of Indiana, Illinois and
Mtcnl2ln. n
Bryan. Now, conceding these and the
other doubtful States, New York. Ohio
and Wisconsin to Mckinley, we can
afford TO lose Kentucky, Wyoming,
Maryland. Delaware, Nebraska, North
Dakota. Oregon. West Virginia. Mime
sofa, and Iowa. and still win. Again,
we can carry Indiana and Michigan,
which are sure for Bryan, and lose Illi-
nois, Ohio. New York and Wisconsin.
and in addition to all this give them
KentuGky. Maryland. Delaware, North
West Virginia. and Iowa and all the
Eastern States and we still win. There
are several other combinations, which
include States naturally for Bryan. and
which in like manner would enable
him to win.
AS TO CHICAGO.
'In Illinois. Bryan will carry the STATE
outside of Chicago by between 10000
and 10000 majority. The uncertainty il
Chicago. with its 100, 900 unplaced votes.
If Bryan carries this city he will carry
the State. and no combination can beat
him in the rest of the States.
In former years the hoa ting vote
could be bought because there was only
one or two pivotal States. While it IS
possible to buy the floating vote of n
single State. it is not possible to buy
up a whole nation. Then, again, in for
mer years the floating vote was indiffer-
ent TO the results. This year every man
l,.,- TO-.
vote them in the booth whether he talk es
money or not. Possession is nine points
of the law. Bryan has already enough
States to win with mo:e than equal
chance in the doubtful States. and only
needs to hold his own. lie will be our
next resident."