The Vermont watchman. [volume] (Montpelier, Vt.) 1883-1911, 1896-04-29
Weather Fallacies.

oclastic address on weather Fallac2es'
read TO the Royal Meteorological society at
Its meeting in London by the president,
r. Inwards, and printed in The Quarterly
journal of the society. In early times,
when the weather had to be studied from
cloud, sky and sea and from the behavior
of animals and plants, men were pardon
able for doing what Is still often a cause
of error, foretelling what they most wished
for and putting down as n universal law
what was only coincidence of independ-
ent events. One class Of prophecies con-
meets the weather with certain seasons Of
the year, particularly days in the week
or the days of certain saints, which was
convenient way Of fixing date, and even
with particular times of th9slay. We often
hear such sayings as "Fine on Friday,
fine on Sunday" or Friday is the best
and the worst day of the week, " and prov
CRIBS like Rain at z, fine at H." When
these sayings come true they are faithful
ly remembered, when they fail they are
forgotten. There is no kind of foundation
for such rules, which Mr.. Inwards calls
'self exploding" or for the belief that If
1t rains on st. Swithin's day, July 10, 1t
will rain for 40 days after.
Equally unfounded are the scientific SUI
perstitions, presented under the shield of
astronomy, which base infallible rules for
the weather on the relative position Of the
moon, sun and planets. These appeal to
analogy, to reason and to common sense
The known action of sun and moon on
ocean tides is generally the starting point
of such theories, and it is clear to common
sense that when the earth Is nearer to the
sun OF the moon to the earth, or both sun
and moon are pulling together, there ought
to be tide of atmosphere similar to the
tide Of ocean which these influences I'M
doubleday produce. But the facts do not
bear the theory out. The atmospheric
tides do not ebb and flow, except in an
in1nitesimal degree.
Again, the sun and moon move In
planes that are at an angle to each other,
SO that at times their attraction acts in
widely diverging lines, at others almost In
the same plane Here is q clear case:
When the angle is greatest, when the moon
is ION her back, ;" there must be atmos
pheric disturbance. Unfortunately the
storms do not come and we must find
some other cause for our weather. Hardly
year goes by without new moon theo
ry to account for it. NJ. Flarguergues, as
the result of 20 years of observations, has
found that when the moon was farthest
from the earth the barometer averaged 1855
y
meters, difference Of only one millineter.
Some prophets have built their faith on
| cycles, predicting that weather changes
| would repeat themselves when sun and
| moon got back into the same relative posi-
ton, which they do in 10 years, with an
error of only an hour and half. Others
advocate a cycle of 81 years, but all the
cycle systems have broken down when
| tested, and as far as we know there Is no
period within which weather changes re-
peat themselves. There are plenty Of other
| fallacies about the moon, such as that the
full moon clears away clouds; that you
| should SOW beans or cut trees on the wane
of the moon; that it is a bad sign If the
moon changes on Saturday or Sunday
that two full moons in month will bring
food that to see the old moon in the
arms Of the new brings on rain. M. Flam-
marion says that "the moon S influence on
the weather is negligible. The heat COM
Ing from it would affect our temperature
by twelve millionths of degree, and the
atmospheric tides caused by 1t would only
affect the barometric pressure a few hun
dredths Of an inch, far less than the
changes always taking place from other
causes"
Even the halo round the moon is dis
credited 1t has been found by observers
that it Is followed by fine weather as often
as by rain
About the sun there are many fallacies,
and ever since the discovery that the spots
on It's surface appear with greater fire.
quency theorists In shoals have tried to
prove that they rule our weather. 1t has
been proved that the frequency Of sun spots
and the variations Of the magnetic needle
are intimately connected and that the
aurora appears and disappears in some sort
of sympathy with the sun spot variations,
but this is as far as we can get for the
present as these changes seem to have nc
definite relation to our weather Mr.. Scott
has proved that there are no equinoctia
gales
Coming down to EARTH we find long
list of statements of the behavior of ami
mails and plants having supposed con
nection with the weather. K. j. Lowe has
carefully examined number of wei
known signs and all seem to break dowI
completely, He took the signs of bat!
flying about in the evening, many toad
appearing at sunset great quantities o
snails, fish rising to the surface, bees busy
crowds of locusts, restless cattle, land rail-
clamorous, flies and gnats troublesome
many insects, crows flocking and noisy
spider webs thick on the grass spider
hanging from their webs in the evening
and ducks and geese making more nois
than usual. Calling a day fine when NJ
rain was measured in the rain gauge h.
found in 1851 observations Of such sign
that they were followed 2l8 times by fin
weather and only 14S by rain. Even swal
lows flying low cannot be depended upon
as especially In summer and autumn the,
almost invariably skim along the ground
Animals probably feel the dampness o
darkness preceding wet weather. and thi
makes them uneasy, but not more than 1
affects man himself AS to COWS scratch
ing their ears and goats uttering cries
they are no more true as signs of rain thai
the adage which credits pigs with seeing
the wind.
Only selection has here been made O
the vast catalogue of fallacies that hav
grown up about the weather There ar
still people, Mr.. Inwards remarked in con
clusion who believe that the saints day
rule the weather, that the sun puts on
fire and that warm water freazas Snonp