The sun., 1896-10-31
HOW THIS CITY WILL VOTE.
GEORGE BLIsS SAYS 10000 TO
10000 FOR M'KINLEE.

r.oplet Usou Thezo Figures The Cai.
cu,ntions Upon which He Bases Them
Anniysi. orthe City'sVote In Former Eiee.
t,ops That Hear Upon tho Present One.
For many years have, when here, been In
the habit of making predictions as to the prooa-
bic result of the election In this city. Some
times have been away Off" but more fire.
ouently have been so near right as not to ruin
nv character as q prophet. This year n good
many friends have been asking my opinion.
Believing that 1t is a year In which IL 10 pecu-
lnrly difficult to make q prediction, have re-
Trained till within few days from studying the
situation; but observing what seemed to me ex-
travagant claims made by prominent Re-
publicans. who ought to be able to
Judge better than myself, have now
made some study OF the situation and
with your permission will give you the result
which confess agreeably surprises me.
Ihave said II is peculiarly difficult to predict
this year This is so not only because Of the
great breakup OF parties, but because the
change In the boundaries Of the Assembly dis
tricts two years ago limits US In the study of
the comparative registration to the city as
whole, except that n comparison can be made
with the registration of last year as to the sep
arate Assembly districts. or course, no can
vass has been made or attempted in this city.
for it has come to bo an axiom among the local
politicians that 1t is not possible TO make q can
vass, with which conclusion, however, 1 have
never agreed. II there was moro work and less
talk think It could be done.
Let us try in two or three different ways 10
arrive at an opinion as to the probable div ision
of the vote between Mckinley and Bryan.
First: The simplest and incline to think,
the most correct way OF getting at the probable
result is to take the vote for Mayor in 1894. I
think may take the Democratic vote for
Mayor In that year as showing the full strength
at that time OF those who were iron-clad, hide
bound Tammany men. That vote was 10S,e07.
The normal increase should max Il about 49,
900 this year. There seems no source from
which this can DO expected to be enlarged ex-
cept possibly from the Socialist Labor
and Populist vote to the extent OF, say,
1000. But those who know that vote better than
lido are confident that no considerable portion of
1t will break away from Its own cand dates. As
Stunning, however, that 1000 do so break away,
we have 10000 votes for Bryan. But this as
sumes that all who voted for the Tammany
candidate for Mayor in 1894 will now vote for
Bryan. This is notoriously not SO. Even tho
then TammanJ candidate for Mayor is himself
against Bryan. II we take only 10000 as the
number of Democrats who voted for Graat for
Mayor In 1894, and who will this year vote
against Bryan. we reduce the total vote of the
latter to 100000.
In 1894 the Republican candidate for Mayor
received 154, ,oe4 votes. Add 30 It as normal
increase. 4,ooo. and then add the 10000 new
Democrats, and you have 1853. .0G0 Mckinley
votes agsinlt 100000 for Bryan. or $4,000
majority. There should. however. be deducted
from AcKinley's vote tho number of the anti
Bryan Democrats who will vote for Palmer.
Ex-Reslster Reilly. in q statement put forth In
the interest OF Talmany Hall, puts this num-
ber at 10000 don't believe 1t viii be 5000.
assume that about "a. 900 Democratic voters
broke away from their party candidate for
Mayor in 1894. for while Hill had 2.7s0 MAJOR
ity for Governor, Strong had 46.7s1 majority
for Mayor, difference Of 4S.981. This differ
ence must have been chiefly caused by Demo-
Gratis who. while desertinG their local candidate,
stuck to their party on the State ticket
Secondly: This calculation indicates o NC
Kinley majority OF about 10000. Let MS sec
what result we get from consid ering the quee-
tion from another direction, from an examina-
tion of the registry.
AS have said. 1896 is the only year with
which from the changes in Assembly districts
IL is possible without very great labor TO make q
comparison OF the registration by Assembly
districts. The Assembly districts in which in
1895 the Republicans had q majority were tho
Fifth. Nineteenth. Twenty first, Twenty-ftth,
fret. These may be called tho Republican
districts. though the difference was so small
in the Fifth district that 1t should hardly be
Included.
Now. 10 these seven Republican districts tho
total registration 10 this year 75,549 while It |
was In 1898 $500. an increase OF 1860, or |
about 2S per cent. The increase in the whole |
city, including these seven Republican districts.
Is only IN per cent. SO that the Republican |
districts increase their registry by III per cent.
more than the percentage In the whole city. II |
we exclude these seven districts. which for our |
present purpose is the proper way we dnd the |
following result: The Republican districts in
crease the registry by 90 per cent while the rest
OF the city increases Its registry by 12 Fer cent,
making an excess OF increase In the Republican |
districts or 10 per cont, which conclusively In
olcates that the increase In registration Is |
largely in favor OF the Republicans.
In passing. let me cay that the fact. which |
believe Is fact, that the increase OF reRistra-
tion THIS year is less than 1t ought to be- consid-
ering the growth Of the city and tho annexation
OF the Westchestsr towns, arises In great
measure from the failure of Democrats TO
register, though to come extent from the
registry being moro honest than those of former
years.
AS to the probable aggregate vote: In 1896
the vote was 2s.732 less than the registration,
or IL per cent; In 1894 1t WAS 49, 533 less or l2
PEI cent; In 1899 1t was 24.707 less. or per
cent The average of these Is about 10H per
cent in view. however, OF the general interest
existing this year and OF tho general honesty of
the registration, think 1t would be safer to
assume that the falling of from the registry
VIII not be more than 1t was in 1892. tho
last Presidential year. or 8 per cent, which
would give an aggregate OF persons voting
tois year of 3O4.520. OF these votes, how
ever considerable number will be SO cast as
10 have no bearing upon the question Of
the division Of the votes between Mckinley and
Bryan These lost votes other than those for
Palmer, the sound money Democrat aro those
which are defective. the Prohibition. the Popu-
iiSt' and the Socialist Labor votes. Last year
the prohibition vote was OIL. the PopuJist 600.
the Socialist Labor lO.9o3, and the defective
lo'2oo' This total 10 2o,02s. know no reason
TO mink that the Prohibition vote will be
essentially changed. But. as / have already
SAID apprehend that a considerable por-
tlOn OF the pOnuliat md EocIoust Iako.