Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1896-11-02
ON EVE OF BATTLE
Political Prophets Question Their Own
Estimates.
LABOR Vote LARGELY FOR BRYAN
Enormous Democratic Bolt of Busi-
ness Men.
Enormous Democratic Bolt of Busi
SOME SURFACE INDICATIONS


Special From STAFF Correspondent.
CHICAGO, November 2.-The political
prophets who have been telling every one
how the election is going are now quietly
asking each other what they think about
it. Managers and politicians never learn
how little they know until the day before
election. Experienced politicians know that
Canvassers are reliable up to certain point
that is, to indicate the trend of public senti-
ment. The trouble about the estimates of
both national committees is that the re-
publican committee draw their conclusions
as to the trend of public sentiment from
the higher grade of society, while the demo-
cratic committee are influenced in their
judgment by what they find to be the senti-
ment In other classes.
l am thoroughly satisfied that the labor
vote. both organized and unorganized, is
generally favorable to Bryan. Bryan is
likely to get quite as large a vote from that
class as is expected. On the other hand the
democrats have been deceiving themselves
as to the disaffection among the leading
business men and their associates.
l do not understand how any one can fail
to see that the loss to the democrats from
this quarter is enormous While denying
this. they recognize it when they make a
great display of every prominent business
man who proclaims himself loyal to them.
He is received into their arms with all the
cordiality of a new convert. The fact that
a prominent business man who has always
been democrat has after long hesitating
at last come cut for Bryan is regarded in
most any city in the country as matter
of sufficient Importance to call the atten-
tion of the national committee, and to
"a II bac
since ceased TO be a novelty to the republi-
cans to have democrats of this class come
over TO them. The occasion for surprise
and comment is when they have not done
SO.
This being the situation, any democratic
estimate which makes light of the disaffec-
ton in the democratic ranks is not reliable.
They have lost in all directions many thou
sands, and 1T must be acknowledged tha,
those democrats who have bolted from
their party are from the more influential
class. The power and influence of these
men will count for much against the prob
able advantage in numbers of converts
which the democrats have among the farm
ers and laboring men. Moreover, the busi-
ness men who have left their party are less
subject than the humber classes to be
whipped back into line, especially when
their social surroundings sustain them in
the position they have taken.
Not Many Weakening.
I do not see evidence of men on either
side who have quit their party going back
to any considerable extent, but among the
more ignorant and less positive element
many who have not openly declared their
revolt may be pulled back. l think that the
percentage Of the labor vote cast for
Bryan tomorrow would be extremely large
but for one thing. That is the foreign vote
that is not fully AmericaniZed. The ma
tive Americans and those who have so far
lost their foreign identity to drift out of
communities distinctively of their nation
ality, and even those of such communities
where American customs have come to
dominate, are very difficult to draw back
into line when they have once made up
their minds to make change
The tug of war is to get the votes of the
very large class of naturalized citizens who
adhere to their own customs and Ian
guages. And l believe the republicans
have the best Of it.
My personal observation is made here,
but reports from elsewhere correspond to
the condition l see here. The chairman OF
the republican committee here expresses
tie opi4oll ~ Ilie ilidl dn vote among
the laborng men will be confined to native
Americans. l do not think it is quite accu-
rate, but it is an exaggeration of an actual
condition.
Surface Indications.
The claims that both sides make private
ly of things likely to happen are instanced
in this Georgia claimed by republicans,
New York claimed by democrats. The fact
is that both sides are straining their eyes
locking down a dark corridor to recognize
the dim figure in the distance. Mckinley
and Bryan look much alike in the dark and
to the blind The democrats do not put a
confidence as to Indiana that warrants
it's being placed in the sure Bryan column.
The republicans surely have an equal right
to claim it as far as surface indications go.
Kentucky is generally regarded as giving
better outlook for Bryan than it did, but
1t is no sure thing. Maryland is in the
balance if you take the average of evil
derCe.
Indications leave Minnesota about the
same shade toward the republicans as
Michigan shades the other way. Some re-
publicans say they think Illinois safer than
either Ohio or Iowa, but they do not ad-
nit the probability that either of the three
states will be lost to them.
There is some surprise here over the In
dications that the democrats have put up a
better fight in New Jersey than it was
thought possible they could.
Neither side has right to claim Oregon
on the information they have. The best
judges do not think that Texas belongs in
the doubtful colmun. The situation as to
Wyoming is about as it is in Oregon. Both
shade toward Bryan. Washington looks
by reports reasonably sure for Bryan
The democrats are little more confident
about west Virginia than seems warrant
ed. though the outlook is rather favorable
to them than otherwise.
They Stand by Their Claims.
Chairman Jones says that he has 20
change to make in his claim given out yes
teIday, but that later information inclines
him to put Illinois in the certain Bryan"
column. He says he refrains from doing
so simply because he prefers to claim too
little rather than to run the risk of claiming
too much.
Reports from Iowa and Ohio indicate, ne
says. that those states are going for Bryan
but he thinks 1t more reasonable and con-
servative not to claim them.
Mr.. Payne, speaking for the republican