New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1896-10-28
THE CONTEST IN NEBRASKA.
CAN THE BOY ORATOR HOLD THE ELEC-
TORAL VOTE OF HIS OWN STATE?


RAI.ITY OF 5000 FOR MKINLEY.
IrRoM STAFF CORRESPONDENT OF THE TRIBUNE'l
Omaha Oct 27.--It is admitted by every clear
sighted politician in Nebraska that the ight ior
the States electoral vote this year Will he an ex-
ceedingly close and inc-drawn ore NO ieauer
Of Judgment on eithe, the Republican or the
Fusion side is willing 10 predict plurality OF
more than 5000 for the Presidential candidate
with whose fortunes and interests he is idehu-
fed A plurality of 1900 in a total vote of nearly
100000 seems a very narrow and hazardous mar
gin on which to operate in State OF such shlit-
ing whims in politics as Nebraska Yet four
years ago. in the three-corncred struggle between
the Republican Populist and Democratic parties
the Republican National ticket won over the
Populst by an even smaller plurality than ''W
-4.0J7. to be exact. The Republican total vote
that year fell 1885 short Of the total poned tor
both Populist and Democratic electors III ths
year, when the two opposition parties nave Iuseu
their strength in support Of single Presideh'iai
candidate even the nleagre plurality oil 1917 can
be maintained. the Republican organization III
Nebraska will have won one of the most no'aoie
party victories likely to be scored in the States
beyond the Mississippi.
The elections Of 1894 and 1895 went far toward
restorins 10 the Republican organization the
strength II hdQ lOSt III tne P'''~>~'
upheaval Of 1890 Between 1883 and 1890 the
Republican percentage of the States total vote
fell from $50 to ~. BY 1894 this lost ground
had practically been recovered. the Repubicah
percentage in the contest for the Governorship
that year reaching 47.j. while In the Congress
elections II again passed for the FIRST time in
Ave years the half hundred mark. In 1885,. when
only 1udgeship was at stake and three oppo-
sition candidates--a Popu's,. Free-Conage
Democrat and Ar Administration Democrat
were In the held. the Republican vote fell away
to 43 per cent; but the certainty OF success De-
cause Of Democratic and Popustic dissensions,
had reduced the Republican poll to minimum
while the intensity of the rivalres in the oppo-
sition camp drew out an even larger vote than
had been cast Jointly for the Populist and Demo-
cratic candidates for Congress in 1874
THE VOTE IN 1894.
The votes Of 1894 for Governor and Congress
men offer, therefore the best basis for calcuia-
ton on the chances of this years campaign.
They show the real party divisions on a full poll
Of the State. and also give hint as to the MIMI
mum strength Of the out-and-out Gold Standard
or Administration faction of the local Democracy.
Here are the figures for the two contests:
Republican. Popust. Democrat
Governor. 1s94...--. ?hei" H'olo o''''
Complete fusion betweer. the Populist and
Silver Democratic forces had been arranged on
the candidate for Governor: fusion on candidates
for Congress could he reached in only two or the
civ districts. The vote for Governor in 1894 was
also somewhat affected by purely personal OPP
position to the Republican nominee. who was cut
by several thousand members of his own party
Making allowance for this local detection, both
Sho a
vision Of strength in the State between the Re-
publican organization and the opposition ele-
ments which could he counted on to coaesce in
any general scheme Of -Populist fu-
slon the balance of power resting with the
handful of Administration Democrats who stu
clunk obstinatey to the idea Of party regularity
and identity, and repealed with Indignation any
and every suggestion of an sinalgamaton with
the Populists.
The first unsettling rush Of Mr.. Bryans spe-
cious and effervescen canvass seemed to carry
from their feet considerable number OF the Re
publican voters that had been temporarily won
back In 1894 from the exploded auackeries OF
populisn On the other hand, the breach MADE
in the Democratic National ranks at Chicago
compIeted the alienation Of that element in the
local Democracy which under the Administra-
TONS standard had fought against Populistic
erto holding an inert and neutral balance OF
power we're driven into overt and active oppo-
sition 10 the Bryan electoral ticket.
or the two offsetting defections the former
looked more formidable at the outset; but the
latter has shown itself In the end the more sub
stantal and better sustained. The second bolt
had at least organization and collected purpose:
the first though more imposing in point of num-
bers, lacked these essential qualities from the
start. AS consequence. under the strain OF
searching canvass such as Nebraska has never
seen before the more frothy and emotional Of
the two movements has practically collapsed,
while with the advantages Of steadier discipline
AMI more experienced leadership the other has
steadifyt gained In power as The campaign has
advanced until now it is no. too much to say that
the Democratic Sound Money opposition to Bryan
will prove the decisive factor in the struggle to
deprive him next week Of the States electoral
vote.
EFFECT OF THE POPULIsT MOVEMENT.
Until this year the seeding Administration
faction had managed to maintain a practically
uninterrupted control Of the Democratic organi-
xation In Nebraska. The Democratic party suf-
fered little In the Arst irruption of Popust
tiruent In 1880. Its total vote for Governor tina:
year fell only 10000 short Of that cast for Cleve-
land In 1888 while the total republican vote was
dininiAhed by 10000. Yet the Democracy's fate
A. An opposition party was sealed when the new
Popust organization outstripped 1t in voting
strength In 1892 That year. when the shadow
OF the coming schsm on the money question be-
ran to cast itself over party councils, more than
half Of the Democrats in the State under the
secret instructions Of the Democratic National
Committee. threw their votes directly to the
Popuiist electoral ticket These votes once lost
10 the rival POpulist organization. were never