Evening star., 1896-10-03
A SOLID SOUTH
All Democratic Estimates Include
That Whole Section.
EIGHT STATES ARE DOUBTFUL
Three at Least May Go for the
Republican Ticket.
ELEMENTS OF WEAKNESS

The democratic managers here and in
Chicago invariably include solid south in
their estimates Of the vote Bryan will get,
yet there are seven. probably eight. SOUTH
ern states which the democrats would be
glad to feel are absolute certainties for
their candidates.
Maryland, West Virginia and kentucky
are always included in the democratic es-
innate. All conservative estimates place
these three states In the doubtful column.
The betting on Maryland, for instance, is
even. with republicans more eager to place
money than the democrats. The two other
states are in the same box.
The five remaining southern states which
are so confidently counted on by the DEM
ocrats are North Carolina, Florida, Ala
bama, Tennessee and Louisiana. 1t is
simply taken for granted that there will be
no change in these states from previous
years. North Carolina is put down sure
because of the fusion there, and the prob
ability Is that the state will be for Bryan,
but there are a hundred combinations in
North Carolina which may hurt the ma
tfonal ticket. Despite the supposed fusion,
the populists. 1t is said. will trade with re-
publicans I'm many counties. This gives an
element Of uncertainty even to that appar-
entity certain state.
OF the other four states 1t is interesting
to figure on them from the vote of previous
years.
AlRbama's Vote Analysed.
In Alabama the vote in 1892 for President
was as follows: Democratic, s,13s; re-
publican. s,197; populist. S5,1s1, or a DEM
ocratic majority of something like 5000.
In that year. however, the republicans
made no fight, some of them voting with
the populists. In 1874 the republicans cast
$1,000 votes In the state, and in 1883 they
cast so. 197. Some idea of the republican
strength can be obtained from this. With
anything like full republican vote the re-
publicans and populists have a large ma
5ority over the democrats in Alabama. As
they are not together. their vote cannot be
used as basis. There will be no fusion of
populists and democrats, and separate tick
cts Will be run. The democratic majority
| Of about 10000 over the populists will be
| reduced half by the detection Of gold demo-
Gratis, bringing the total democratic vote
down to about 10000. Should the republi-
cans poll their full strength of 1874 and get
the gold democratic vote they would go
close to 10000. difference between the
| two Of about 10000. The popuist electoral
| ticket, 1t is believed. will cut no figure,
| owing to the division in the populist ranks.
Capt Kolb and some OF the leaders have
| gone over to the democrats. Other leaders
nave gone to the republicans. Owing to the
| bitter hatred between democrats and pop
| ulists. 1t Is hard to tell whether the demo-
Gratis or republicans would get the largest
| pull out OF popuist ranks IL the populist
ticket Is supported by the party. The
chances in Alabama, 1t is admitted are
| more favorable to the democrats than re-
punhcans. but 1t is hard to see how the
state can De counted on as an absolute GER
| tainty with the gold democratic detection
staring the party in the face and no fusion
with the populists.
Florida and Tennessee Doubtful.
| Florida is certainly not safely democratic.
| IL the reported defections of gold demo.
Gratis are true. The republicans ran no
| electoral ticket in the state in 1892, but in
lsSs the vote was follows: Democratic.
| 5S.6oI' republican. 26 657. a majority of IL
| 600 for the democrats. The gold sentiment
Is very strong in Florida as there are
| strong corporation interests in the state
detection Of 1000 or 5000 gold demo-
| Gratis would give the state to Mckinley
| as can be seen from the figures 1t is said
that in the cities of Jacksonville, Tampa
| ana Palatka there are more than this
number OF democrats who will vote against
Bryan. There will be no accessions to the
| democratic ranks from republicans
tennessee, according to figures of pre-.
| vtous elections, is doubtful state In 1885
the vote for Cleveland was 13S,s74 for
Harrison. 1O0,331: for Weaver, 23 AT, q
democratic majority Of about 1900. In
| 1894, In the state election, this majority
was wiped out, the vote for governor
standing: Democratic 1O4 $50: republican
are new making a hard fight and the
democrats and populists have not fused
II they fuse II may make the state sure
for Bryan, but IL they do not the figures
given do not show a dead certain thing fol-
the democrats. A large gold detection 4,
also reported from that state. Putting Il
at the small figure Of 10000 and giving 1,
to the republicans, II would give the repub
ncans good majority over the democrats
Even giving the democrats the solid popu
list vote, they would not have such a safe
majority over their opponents. Tennessee
Is looked upon by many democrats as 6
| critical state.
Gold Element I'm Louisfana
Fusion has been arranged in Louisiana
but there is a powerful gold elemen,
against Bryan. Many wealthy democrat.
are against him. If it comes about thai
the republican electors are taken dowr
and the party indorses the gold democrati,
electors, the democratic ticket may be en-
dangered, and democrats realize this
| Estimates of former elections are of nt
Importance IL Chairman Hanna should In
| struct the republicans in the states men
toned to support the electors of gold dem
| ocratS.
Movements Of Troops.