New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1896-09-25

Evidently the gold price ruled most strictly in
New-York where the market is largely con-
trolled by the gold value OF the wheat delivered
In Liverpool, but less strictly in Chicago where
speculation all the time had two elements OF I'M
certainty to employ in hosting or depressing
prices viz: the prospective demand and supply
and the prospective value Of the currency in gold
These two elements of uncertainty. each exag-
gerated. affected the prices which shippers were
willing to pay for wheat on farms, so that the
farmers all the time had to lose what the shipper
considered a safe margin between the price he
would pay and the price he could get at Chicago
Sometimes the farmer realized more than his
share OF NewYork prices, the shipper or specu-
lator losing but most OF the time the farmer real
lied less than his share comparison of the fig
ures will convince any candid man.
THE MOST POTENT INFLUENCES.
One fact must have impressed itself already
upon the mind. that farm prices have been far
more Influenced by fluctuations in value Of the
currency prior to 1919 by changes in freight rates
all the time, and by variations in yield of wheat
or in foreign demand. than by any change in the
price of silver But to make the comparison con-
elusive the record Of crops each year of the
quantity required for food and seed. and OF the
quantity exported. -four included, must also be
added. These data are shown In the next table,
the figures indicating millions or bushels. Inc
quantities used for seed taken from Depart
ment reports The consumption of food is caicu-
lated the basis of average per head OF mean
population each year between the points Of great
est exhaustion of supply, when the quantity of
wheat remaining can be most nearly determined;
but for the later years the estimate OF the De
partment-four and two-thirds bushels-is taken.
The yield each year prior TO 1871 is given ac-
cording to Department estimates, but for that
and later years my own estimates. based on
actual movement each year, supplies remaining
at the end, quantities exported and Quantities
consumed al the usual average per capita, are
used, stated in my letters to The Tribune be-
cause they do, in fact. correspond with the
known distribution. while the Government re-
turns do not and because the latter have been
completely discredted as worthless since 1870 in
all trade calculations
To the four columns showing demand and sup
ply each year added the figures showing gold
prices Of wheat on farms west of the Mississippi
and one other column of the highest interest.
This shows the value OF wheat sold on farms
west Of the Mississippi compared with wholesale
prices Of all commodities at New-York for years
prior to 1897. the average as given by the Sen
ate Committee on Finance after an extended and
thoroughly non-partisan investigation. Ny own
tables OF prices not used because the data
have not yet been published so that students can
pronounce upon their accuracy but in using the
figures OF the Finance Committee. when are Tor
January each year, 1t is necessary to divide each
January average Of all prices by the average farm
price of wheat for the December previous For
the years later than 1891 my own table OF prices.
covering over 300 quotations. is necessarily en-
ployed and while differing I'm details for previous
years. ii does not differ widely, except for very
few years from the results obtained by the
Finance Committee For convenience Of cOmpari-
son the columns showing each years crop. the
total demand. the farm price west of the Missis-
sppi, the value of wheat In all commodities. and
the gold value Of the fine ounce silver bullion In
pence, yearly averages until 1873 and Deem
Der averages in that and later years. are placed
together:
WHEAT CROPS DEMAND AND VALUE