Birmingham state herald., 1896-10-31
ITS IMPOSSIBLE ID LOSE. On This Analysis of the Political
 Situation. MIR, BRYAN A SURE WINNER He Has Six Chances to the Canton Mans One,
 Says Washburn. THIRTY-0NE STATES WILL GIVE HIM PAP He Has More Than an Equal Chance in the Doubtful States-Money Has Lost
 Its Potency This Year
 of Grace.
THIRTY-oNE STATES WILL GIVE HIM 241

Chicago, Oct. 30.-The following final statement from the populist side as to the election day probabilities and expec- tations throughout the country was giv- en tonight to the Southern Associated Press by Chairman Washburn, of the Chicago headquarters:
 Tn view of the fact that the people are anxious to know what combinatio of states are liable to win, I have grouped together several, any group of which is liable to be the correct one on election day.
 Tt is conceded that the democratic gold defection will be offset by the silver republicans, which leaves the normal conditions of the two parties the same Then add to the democratic vote the two millions of populist votes and it is ap- parent that Bryan must win. Fortunate ly, the populist vote is largest in states where 1t is most needed and while Bryan cannot win without 1t, he is sure to win with it, and will get the full populist vote.
 Tn analysing the vote of the country, l nave grouped as Bryan states the agri- cultural and mining states, where the gold democratic defection and floating vote IS smallest and where the success of the ticket depends on the farmers who have been educated on the silver question through school house and alliance meet 1ngs, and who would feel insulted if of fered a price for their vote or whether coerced in any manner. Therefore it is conceded that the thirty-one states west Of the Mississippi and south of the Ohio rivers, representing PAP electoral votes, or eighteen more than needed, are the states Which Bryan is most likely to carry, and the states which are comparatively sure Tor Mckinley are the New England states, together with New Jersey and Pennsylvania, representing eighty-one electoral votes. The doubtful states are the middle western, including Illinois, h. diana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin, to- gether with New York, making 124 elec- toral votes.
 "It isapparent to any political student that while Bryan can be elected by half a doset diffe rent combinations, that on the other hand Mckinley must carry every eastern state together with every one of the central western doubtful states in order to win. Therefore he has one chance where Bryan has six. While Bryan can win without the doubtful states his chances for carrying them are better than McKinley's, and should he get them all it would prove veritable landslide. Of the thirty-one Bryan states the most doubtful are Iowa, Kentucky, Delaware and Maryland, We can lose Iowa and Delaware or Kentucky and Delaware, or Maryland and Delaware and still win, without carrying a single doubtful state in the middle west We can give Mckinley all of the eastern and middle western, or doubtful states, to- gether with Iowa, or Kentucky, or Mary land and Delaware and then win.
 ''Of the doubtful states Ohio is most likely to furnish the greatest surprise. The silver republican vote will be enorm- ous. Our most conservative polls and re- ports of Indiana, Illinois and Michigan give these three states to Bryan.
 Now, conceding the other three doubt full states, New York, Ohio and Wisconsin to Mckinley, and we can afford to lose Kentucky, Maryland, Nebraska, Oregon, West Virginia, Minnesota and Iowa and stil! win, Again, we can carry Indiana and Michigan. which are sure for Bryan, and lcse Illinois, Ohio, New York and Wisconsin, in addition to all this giving them Kentucky, Maryland, Delaware North Dakota, West Virginia and Iowa and all the eastern states, and we still win There are several other combina- tions, which include states naturally for Bryan and which in like manner would enable him to win.
 Tn Illinois Bryan will carry the state outside Chicago by between 30,0O0 and 10000 majority. The uncertainty is Chi cago, with its 100000 unplaced votes. If Bryan carries this city he will carry the state and no combination can beat him in the rest of the states.
 In former years the floating vote could be bought, because there was only one or two pivotal states. While 1t is possible to buy the fioa ting vote of single state, 1t is not possible to buy up a whole na- tion Then, again. in former years the floating vote was indifferent to the re- suits. This year every man has strong convictions and will secretly vote them in the booth, whether he takes any money or not
 "Possession Is nine points of the law. Bryan has already enough states to win with more than an equal chance in the doubtful states, and only needs to hold his own. He will be our next president"