The San Francisco call., 1896-01-23
KING WHEAT ON
A RAPID RISE,
Signal for the Quick Return
Of Good Times TO
California.
PROSPERITY ON TIPTOE.
Bankers Say They Are Ready
to Resume Loans to Needy
Farmers.
AUSTRALIA BUYING FROM Us,
Dealers and Brokers Are Purchasing
Heavily of Both Future and
Spot Wheat.
AUSTRALIA BUYING FROM US.

Hheat took a jump upward yesterday
from opening to closing of 81 cents per
Genital The day before it rose l1l cents.
Every indication point to a further rise
to-day, and dealers and bankers and mer-
chants say that good times have come
again to California. For as wheat goes so
goes the Western world.
The scenes on Change yesterday were of
the Ilveliest and most hopeful description
that have been witnessed there for many
days. 1t was no new joy, however, that
came TO the habltues of the Produce Ex-
change, Tor the upward tendency has been
1eIt Tor weeks, and the rise in prices has
been steady and progressive for days. The
market opened yesterday at 81 IL and
closed at 81 141&.
Possibly never again, said G. W. Nc
Near yesterday, "wiII wheat be sold here
as low as 50 cents"
Ii this prophecy shall have the effect for
good IN every department of industry that
the famous Montpelier prediction of 1894
n ad for i'll, then, indeed, viii good times
have returned to California.
The letter of Albert Montpelier was
made the occasion of frequent reference on
the street yesterday. The manager of the
GrangerS Bank, speaking as an authority
on the subject, as a man who had kept
tab on the market its causes and their
effects, said in 1894 that wheat would
never again sell above so cents per GENITAL.
That was the selling price then. and that
IN itself was bad enough. But the pros
pect of its never rising above it was much
worse, and the effect was demoralizing to
the last degree.
The fact IS" said Mr.. McNear. in
speaking OF the situation and the outlook
yesterday afternoon, wheat cannot be
produced for 50 cents with profit. That
has been demonstrated, and l believe the
farmer has seen his worst years. l don't
believe the price viii ever fall to that low
hgure again. The rise, of course, means
prosperity for all. The farmer is benefited
directly, the merchant and manufacturer
feel the new impulse, money gets into
circulation, the values of farming lands
and real estate generally are strength
ened."
Banks have already indicated a disposi-
ton TO resume loans to farmers which
accommodation has been suspended since
the panic of 1898.
The immediate cause OF the present
sharp advance, brokers and dealers are
agreed, IS the large purchases OF California
wheat by Australia, heretofore an export
ing country. The crop of the whole world
IS reported short, and there is none too
much in California.
I'VE know that the Australian crop is
short, and that of India and Argentina is
reported to be So" said Mr.. McNear.
This is not news. We have known it for
q long time, and should have experienced
a rise some time ago but for the hardness
of Chicago to respond to the situation.
That Is a speculative market. So many
brokers make money on a falling market,
the bear influence is so strong, that they
have kept it down. But the conditions
have reached point where they could not
be kept down any longer"
The present steady advance began on the
10Th OF this month. At tha opening that
day options sold at 81 0755. The progress
has been by fractions OF cent until Tues
day, when the price opened at 81 091& and
closed at 81 II, an advance of IL cents
Yesterday the price mounted during the
day 3% cents as stated. In Chicago the
buoyant element entered into the market
TO such an extent as to carry the price up
cents. The Chicago market has great in
fiuence on that of the country. Notwith-
standing it does not always act with the
real conditions behind 1t. The stubborn
resistance of the actual conditions Was
evidenced by such telegrams shown on the
floor of the exchange here as, Despite the
D buoyant feeling here. brokers fear the usual
Tuesday break" The ''usual Tuesday
break" is nothing more than a supersti-
tion-or rather the effect Of. superstition.
Several brokers here are doing some
heavy buying. 1t is said that the decided
spicuous performance in that regard by
G. w. McNear, and that he had been
keeping pace with the subsequent advance
bv further purchases of May delivery on
the Produce Exchange call board. In the
meantime he is also buying spot wheat
So it is being limited about that when the
present sellers of May wheat are required
to deliver to him they will be likely to find
that they will have to buy from him in
order to do it. This is only rumor, of
course, but there are many dealers who
believe It,
Since Montpelier made his famous
prophecy as to 60-cent wheat in 1894 that
staple has advanced 40 per cent. Looking
backward over the intervening time,
brokers say that the extremely low figure
then touched is to be accounted for more
by the financial disturbances than any
oVersupply.
When wheat was so cents people were
evidently starving themselves. The
abundant crops of 1891 to 1894 have been
required, Judging from the moderate
stocks in the world at present, and this
fact, thoroughly learned, will result IN
better figures for several years 10 come.
There was no more wheat in the world
when it brought 81 80 than there was when
it went begging at so cents. But at so
cents the famer was losing his grip on his
farm, while at 81 30 he was buying more
land.
That other reassuring fact for the
farmer is now being quoted by the dealer
the fact that California wheat is worth 10
cents per GENITAL in the markets OF the
world more than any other wheat. In
other words, if California wheat is ever
brought down to so cents again it will be
because all other wheat is selling at 20
cents.
The difference in the price of milling
wheat over that for export has spread re-
markably since the present rise set in. 1t
IS usually 5 cents in favor of milling |
Since the heavy draft from Australia set in |
this difference has reached Is cents. 'Take |
$1,000 to $4,000 tons out OF the milling re-
serve OF this State where the supply was |
originally overlarge,' said a broker yes
terday, and the effect is this very ma
terial rise in price,
President B. A. Becker of the German |
Savings and Loan Society regards the rise
IN wheat as an augury of better times in
the very near future.
The city and the country" he re-
marked, may be compared to the positive
and negative poles of battery. Neither
can act without the other. The city de- !