New-York tribune., 1896-01-16
NELL STICKS TO IT.
THE NEW-ORLEANS EXPERT RErTER-
ATES HIS FIGURES.
IN \ LETTER To THE TRIBUNE HE ELABORATHS
HIS ARGUMENT on THE COTTON SITUATION
-ELLIsoN's FIGURES MAKE THE SIT
UATION WORSE THAN NEILLS.

-ELLTsoN's FIGURES MAKE THE SIT
UATIoN WORSE THAN NEILLs
There was a great deal of dust kicked up on the
floor Of the New-York Cotton Exchange yesterday |
Switching transaction narrowed spreads between
the months and put accounts at SKIES and seVens
and bear tactics were brought into play to increase
the confusion. AZ result of the dog-eai-dog
market. there further decline in cotton. Inc
March delivery closed last night at 7% or about
points above the lowest it has sold at this season.
The decline in the face OF crop movement
that still points a total yield of 100000 bales In
fact. Henry NJ Ne private cables from abroad
said reiterated his estimate Of G5OD0S Mr.. Neill
is said to figure his estimates chiefly on lint pro-
ductioa per acre and not the crop movement or
the reports and opinions OF railway agents Crop
movements sometimes are misleading Figuring
State by State the yield per acre as revealed IN
his correspondence and informal ton. Mr. NELL has
won a reputation accurate forecaster Of the
final yield that has made his opinions generally the
guide for the British spnners. The deductions
drawn by Mr.. Neill in the following letter have not
lost their probability by reason OF the daily narrow
fluctuations IN price on the speculative exchanses
To the Editor of The Tribune.
Sir While thanking YOU for your hauerng re-
marks in your issue 0 the sth inst with regard 10
yoGr comment on the e.si Of my argument. Ny
references exclusively TO American cotton in
crop SPS PETE % %IG9I 6sIs # HmeToaS %if mills wiling
10 go oH o. h crop n% G ,hs heE c"nns o%
carry over only 5000 bales against 3oo 900 las year
Europe can only gct from Ameiica 5000" bales
against actual G.563.00 last year
The ports of Europe held on October !. 1873. Of oo,
To- be reccved In isos America .a%oceo
So the total slrnly ~ American would $4,000
Ana an the stock left at Eurcpenn ports Of Amer
lean cotton on October neNt would D, wnatGGVttr
loss than $4,000 bales % American IS consumed IN
Europe and. or. whatever portion Of mill stocks IS
used up. and IL is not disputed that they consumed
last year 5.SoOOt0 bales 0f American.
| have stated that increased supplies from Other
acr"'nt. 4 relncrd consUnption Of American of
10000 hales-s27ooo bales Of 80 pounds and this is
tlsf the excess last year Of Imports of other
",rillar. on which however he las since said that
the promise not so good - II has been A. II
is OF course. mpo sble that European port stocks
The sninncrs Of Europ. viii probably exhaust their
nyisole mill stock ard leave something IN me
ports. But that WI not occur WIN cotton AZ cur
rent prices. which permit consumption TO go on at
fuil swing don't profess to Know "a anytaing aooIt
mates them at $1,000 bales Of 40 pounds Of all
Mr Ellison cstimates the consumption OF Europe
AT present a. 800" bales OF to pounds per week;
pounds. IL estimates the supply other man % Ame.-
lean AZ 271@g bales Of 90 pounds so TO consume
ican s, Amecan m & are re- ~ nSnds of an NJ
have shown above ii all the American Europe viii
Visible mil siocks viii be 53i3oCO bales so. on Mr.
Elis1n's figures for consumption and supply from
other countries. the situation is much Worse than
Ncw-orcans Jan. ls. iS@.
Whatever confirmation comes from the crop move
mont Of course makes the estimates and conclu-
80. - ,, 81, an tho e.ro,ee- II this cron
'"' '' "a .,o,',oo 80, - ,t ,a,i,,,,a,ior o,i
does turn out 'Fp"" ha''" an me '"d''P"''"'' anu
raids and tho heaviest OF bear selling will only
-, ,,. ,,r,.cy ,.r,nor,rilv Cotton hounds IN very
e" u'i' ''' ~ '''''"'''' .i., :
quickly when u gets started Last ran IL TdNeIeu
from 10 cents pound almost I'm few days The
, - ,.,,,,. -, , ,,-,, excecdi,y = to0 no holes
p'"'' 'i' '"'N''n ~ ',F ~ -.
and on the sucngth OF this ana constant iteration
~ the assertion that the South Is going 20 raise an
cTD
- -, -. 49, .,.l .,o,,o ~, thrir
l''f 'i"5 "' '0"'-' '''''''' " ' ~
customers yet. The crop movement 70 r'a'n '""'-
, f ,t,- RIM AZ l,-t In the proportion of seven
~ ~ .t -. .,.i,,s ,.,s,.r,i,..
t'hthS o' ''' N'''- i'' p"'' '''''''' '''
W'f" l'- Nd'4. "ti'l'Se -'''i "'i''N '' ''''' 49,
Dr. 81 ls fl, 1874 This "a fhrec-nfths OF last year
49,. a... , ,.,, ,,,,., ,to ,.-.,,, ,,,s
ana i'a idh Ni'"-I'tH~ "' 49, "'''H "'' crop "''
only 1IN0eU bales. New-Orlcans expects 90 receive
.,t,v ..o 20 1000 bales AGAINST az bales last
.o,r This vae looked urln as very h"arish ard
-.f, a l.prcss prices further yesterday. but the
,.,,i.r,,i,r i- found ia tn. fact from Ou
|i,,,s A. %,v-t,rl..ns w.!.l b, more than ever at
I'm, rxn.ns. OF ihr other ports. owing to improved