New-York tribune., 1896-09-01
THE SITUATION.


Attempts TO cipher out Presidential contest
thus early are of value chiefly as guide-posts,
showing where work is to be done or what tao
tics opponents may adopt. "The New-YOrk Her.
aid" has gathered direct information from voters
themselves in nine representative preclncts III
this city. eleven in Brooklyn and other parts of
the State outside the city and several In New-Jer-
sey and Connecticut. which show such percent
age Of Democratic loss by direct votes for McNin-
ley that. according to THE Herald's' figures,
similar changes elsewhere would give $4,000 pli-
raty for Mckinley in this city. 264OOO in TINS
State. 10000 in New-Jersey and 10000 in Con-
necticut Strictly speaking, the reports show
more than this Presumably the excess OF Re-
publican over Democratic replies, from districts
In which the majority Of voters has been Demo-
cratic, indicates a percentage of Democrats VINO
do not now mean to vote either for Bryan or NC
Kinley. On that assumption. taking all the re-
turns together. they indicate that about 81 per
cent of the Democrats are FOR Bryan, about 81
per cent for Mckinley, and about 80 per cent at
present not inclined to vote for either, so that
third ticket might receive nearly third OF the
entire Democratic vote.
But no one doubts that these States will give
heavy majorites for the Republican candidate.
This is not the field of battle, nor can POpulist
tactics divert attention from States that may
be in doubt by any amount of clatter in Eastern
States If that line of policy Is tried, as Bryans
deluge of talk in NewYork indicates 1t may be,
his supporters will waste effort and money which
might be more effective elsewhere. The real
scheme of the Populists is disclosed in dispatches
regarding the various fusion arrangements al
ready effected at the West. by which they claim
,1r tNnnn
made impossible in case Of Bryan's success. In
these estimates they figure for Bryan the whole
South exclusive Of Maryland and Delaware, with
14S electoral votes and every Northern State
west of the Minnesota Iowa line, except the two
Dakotas, with "a votes. making In all 2O2 and
leaving % required and these they calculate to
get by carrying Illinois. or Indiana and Michi-
gan They perceive that Indiana and Mime
sofa with 81 votes would just fall short. even
OH their own calculation. Out Of these supposed
votes for the combination the Populsts have al
ready secured for Watson by their fusion ar
rangements about 60 votes, making Sewals
election Impossible.
Rainbow chasing Is the basis Of silver the
ories. and of Populst tactics OF the Southern
States reckoned West Virginia and Kentucky
with 10 votes are extremely likely to 60 for
OF the Western States there is excellent ground
for hoping that Kansas, Nebraska and Wyoming
with 81 votes and the three Pacific Coast States
with II. will go for Mckinley. But the loss of
any of these or of other Southern or Western
States not named. would spoil the Populst cal
culation entirely They will fight desperately
for Indiana and Illinois. apparently with very
small chance Of success. The indianapolis Con-
n1,n1, tha
ton for those States As for Michigan, Mr. Don
Dickinson has declared his intention TO fire both
barrels at the unmistakabe enemies of the Re-
public" and adds: II could not 60 to Indianapo-
Ills but you will find me doing my duty as
"see It In this emergency" In Michigan firing
both barrels means straight vote for Mckinley
1t may be inferred. and the Democrats who sup
port Mr.. Dickinson are quite numerous enough
to make the majority there overwhelming, if
they please.
The thing to BE- constantly remembered is that
the combination Of silver millionaires. having at
command a capital of several hundred millions
in the hands Of about dozen men, and fighting
for the opportunity to bleed the Nation to the
extent Of S30,OOO,OOO year by compelling the
Government to pay 100 cents for silver worth
I3 cents. will not lack money for a powerful
effort in the close States. Their expenditures
have been enormous already. and in spite Of all
talk about lack Of funds on the Democratic side
these lavish expenditures continue. But their
reserve force held for use at the very end of the
campaign. particularly in few Western cities,
must not be forgotten. The only way to make
their defeat certain Is to carry on for two months
such thorough campaign Of popular education
that there shall be no possibility Of changing the
result by such corrupt means as have repeatedly
been used in Chicago. indianapolis and other
cities 1t will be DONE II those who care for the
honor and prosperity Of the Nation do their part
manfully The proved ability and tireless en-
ergy of Chairman Hanna give assurance that
efforts will not be wasted in this contest that
no chance will be taken and that he will not be
content with narrow and scanty victory.