Evening star., 1896-10-19
w EAT AN SILVER
No Connection at All Between Their Market
Prices.
Causes of the Fluctuations I'm the
Wheat Market-An Interesting
Array of Figures.
70 the Editor of The Evening Star:

70 the Editor of The Evening Star:
One of the main arguments or assertio is
of the denocratic-populistic party during
the pending campaign, and, in fact, for the
past three years, has been that the price
of wheat and other agricultural products
has been reduced by the act of 1873, which,
as they say, demonetiZed silver; that de-
monetizing silver decreased its commercial
or bullion value, and that the fall in the
price of wheat kept pace with the fall in
the price of silver and that if we increase
the amount of silver coinage it will IN
crease the price of wheat and other prod
ucts. These statements have beeen reiter-
ated over and over again, and yet the
records show there is no truth in them.
1t is not true that the price of wheat de-
creased in proportion to the decrease in
the value of silver. AS proof of this take
the price of wheat in Dubuque, Iowa, where
daily record was kept.
The average price in gold from 1861 to
1870 was 73 to 81 cents. From 1871 to 1850
it was IS to 93 cents. and from 1881 to 1892
1t was 50 to 50 cents.
Thus the record shows that instead of
decrease III the price 1t actually increased
from 1878 to 1880, and that for the succeed
ing twelve years from 1850 to 1882, the av-
erage price was but nine cents less Or, If
we take the export price, which, Of course,
adds the freight and the profit Of the deal
erS, we find the same state of facts.
From 1858 to 1872 the price in gold was
S0.935; from 1873 to 1877 it was S1.Oo5; from
1878 to 1852 it was LIS; from 1883 to 1887
it was 81 .O2f; from 1883 to 1892 it was 80.
Here again We that the average price
actually increased from 1858 to 1882. while
the value Of silver fell from SlcO4 In 1873
to sO673 in 1892, and to 1888 III 1896.
II is, therefore, clear that the price OF
wheat has not fallen in proportion to the
fall in the value of silver. Nor Is 1t true
that an increase in the amount of silver
money will Increase the price OF wheat,
FOR ynybt haV added
amount of silver money since 1850, more
than trebling the total amount OF silver
money, the price of wheat has fallen more
during that period than al any other dme
Tie fact Is, the price of silver and guam
tity of silver money has nothing TO do WIN
the price OF wheat or any product. The
price of wheat and other prodaets is regu-
lated entirely by the supply and demand
There are two good and sufficient reasons
Why the price of wheat has fallen. and
these are: First, the greatly increased pro-
duction in the United States, and second
the increased supply of other countries,
which now compete with us In the foreign
markets.
Every person of sense must know that
the home price of wheat is fixed by the
foreign price. and that the foreign price is
fixed by the demand and the supply for the
foreign market.
AS shown by the reports of the Depart
ment of Agriculture, the wheat crop of the
United States. nereasea 'from s2S1, ,264, 200
bushels in 1873 to Gil, 10000 in 1891, an in
crease of 1-J times!" 80 90" ''
At the same time Russia Increased her
export of wheat from -, ,514, 143 bushels in
1877 to 112OOO,OOO bushels in 1895: India
from 5I4. .446 to 81, 900. and Argentine
from 81 1856 bushels in 1882 to 4i,SS5.OOO in
1898, total increase of wheat exported
Of 125, ,463, ,:525 bushels. In addition to these
there are numerous smaller countries which
increased their export in like manner. but
of which I have not the figures. All this,
of course, was sent to Europe and sold in
competition with American wheat, thereby
reducing the amount bought of us, that
our export of wheat and flour, which, to-
gether, had reached the amount of nearly
2D0.WO,OO0 bushels, was reduced in 1880 to
1o9. 33e, 476 bushels, or nearly one-half. Pro-
ducing immensely more than we can con-
sumo at home, our only hope is to sell the
surplus abroad. and when our export is re-
duced nearly 1ne-half by competition from
Russia, India and Argentine, how could 1t
be expected that the price could be main
tanned?
Every person. of sense must see at once
that under these circumstances. the price
would inevitably be reduced. In the nature
of things it could not be otherwise.
Whether we can sell a buShel of wheat
abroad depends upon our placing it on the
Liverpool dock within one cent of a given
price; because, If We cannot place it there
as cheaply as our competitors, Europe will
buy of them and not Of US. And it should
be remembered that in Russia, India and
Argentine wheat can be produced cheaper
than with us, because they have an un-
cheaper. than our western prairies and
they pay but from six to thirty cents per
day, while in the great wheat-producins
states ST @ Of !, the 6 nc northwest our farmers have
to get enough help at that rate to harvest
the crop In 1893 it was so difficult to Sc
cure enough help IN Dakota to care for
the immense erop that much Of the wheat
had to be threshed in the field after the
snow fell. Were it not for the improved
implements which our inventors and manu-
facturers have furnished our FARMERS, they
could not raise bushel in competition with
the cheap labor of foreign countries the
total cost of -'aising wheat in India being
put thirteen cents per bushel. All those
Goonernes co o,1 use tne improved implements also
Of course, every bushel that we fail to ex-
port is added to the home supply. and that
also tends to reduce the price
Ihese are the reasons why the price of
wheat mas fallen, and it is obvious that
silver has nothing to do with it. 1t is SIM
ply the operation of the natural law of SUD-
ply and demand.
The rapid increase of wheat has been re-
peatedIy set forth in the reports of the De-
partment Of Agriculture. as also the in
crease IN competing countries. In the re-
Port for 1892. page 80 is the following:
This country has led the van in wheat
growing for more than a decade and half
The population of the country is between
three and four times as large as in 1910. the
wheat crop Is seven times as large as at
that date. Four and a third bushels for
each unit of population then; nine and a
fifth bushel now
And on page 304 is the following:
The large expectation of 1881 to 'S5 was
altogether exceptional, the accident of fiuc-
tuating production. for in three years no
less than 514,0O0,OOO bushels went abroad.
about as much as the seven preceding
years, and the cause was partial failure
in western Europe. The statistician at that
time warned wheat growers that this alb
normal demand would no. continue: that
good crops in western Europe and a reduce
ton of demand would follow The decline
began at once, and wheat prowers grum-
bled at unremunerative prices" as they do
Tow.
During certain years, when the foreign
crop was short, and there was an Increased
demand for our SUPPLIES, the price went. nm
and the same fact is operating in our favor
today. Our consul in Russia estimate that
the foreign wheat crop will be 65OOO Gao
bushels short this year; and the resuI; is
that wheat has risen in price % cents in
Chicago during the past few weeks. thus
adding $lOOOOO.WO to the value of orr
wheat crop. and that, too, while silver has
decreased in price, In view of these facts
IL is simply absurd for any one to pretend
that silver has anything to do with the
price of wheat or other farm products
1t Is the same with cotton, our other great
staple for export, as shown by the official
records.
In 1870 the cotton crop of the United
States amounted to 3 1.4 gIS haIes and the