New-York tribune., 1896-07-23
THE CHANCES.

oury in this State, finds that with fifteen
counties lacking the number Of Democrats
who will not vote for Bryan is about llS42o
against Republican losses Of free-sllver men
amounting to 51G6 The net loss Indicated Is
more than n fifth Of the Democratic vote east
last wear and about n fifth Of the entire Dem
ocratic vote in those counties in lS32 NO
separate account is given of those VINO
Will vote straight for the Republican can
ddate. rs 50 many thousand have done for
some years when no such outrageous plat
form as that Of Chicago had been set up
md there was no such extensive and Outspoken
revolt OF Democrats Considering that the re-
volt both of newspapers and leaders Is fully as
great I'm other Eastern States as in NewIork
II seems probab that the boilers in such states
may approximate in proportion to those In
Ncw-YOrk 1t Is therefore pertinent to observe
that the entire POpulist vote, which the Demo
Gratis are fishing to get. has not been in single
Eastern State as much as tenth Of the Demo
cratic vote.
Two other distinct sections are to be con-
sidercd and no valuable estimate Of the sltua-
ton can be formed which does not start with
the fact that west Of Pennsylvania. the battle
for the last thirty years has been largely on the
same issues that are presented 1t Is only
four or five years since Democratic Governors
were elected in Michigan, Indiana, Illinois and
most of the other Western States largely by
oppeang to the same free-sver passion and
the same Populist ideas to which the appeal
Is now made Hence the situation disclosed
at more recent elections, both as to the strength
of the Republican vote and TO the antago-
nism between Democrats and Popusts. Is one
reached by years Of fighting along the very
lines presented this year.
The Republicans have clear majorties over
Democrats and Populists together In every
Northern State as far as Wyoming, and these
votes must be reckoned In the main freproof.
They have not been battling against the Pop
ulst insanity for years cnly to rush over to 1t
because more outrageous in its proposals than
before The other fact Of large Importance is
that anything like complete fusion of the forces
has been mpossble-tirst. because the Popu-
lists hold that they were cheated In the election
of President Cleveland and, second, because
all supporters Of the Administration know they
would be sold out bodily to the Populists If
they should support Bryan. The POpullsts have
practically absorbed the bulk Of the Demo-
Gratis in States west of Iowa and in Minnesota,
and the remnant OF Democrats left Is as bitter
and rs little disposed to be absorbed off the
face Of the earth as one might imagine Mr..
Dickinson and his aids In Michigan, Senator
Villas in Wisconsin, Secretary Morton In Ne
braska, and considerable bodies of Admnistra-
ton Democrats in other States, will plainly
make resistance to the end.
Competent Democratic leaders calculate that
at least quarter Of the Democrats in Illinois
will refuse to support Bryan But in that State,
Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska and Missouri the
entire body Of German born Democrats with
all their favorite Journals have bolted the
ticket quarter of the Democrats in Illinois
number so OOO and all the POpulists less than
GOOOO and it would take a loss OF more than
n quarter Of the whole Republican force to give
the coalition a chance Of success. In Wiscon-
sin, Iowa and Missouri, In like manner. the loss
of any such portion Of the Democratic vote
would far more than balance all the Populist
gain. and nothing less than a larger landslide
of Republican votes to the Popust side, to the
very men. they have been fighting could give
them victory 1t Is this state Of facts which
makes it so difficult for the more sincere lead
ers TO agree at ST. Louis. The Democrats, the
various Populst factions and the silver bolt
ers are all looking ahead to secure or maintain
precedence for themselves after this election,
which they are warned by the Democratic re-
volt does not promise them practical results.