New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1896-11-13
IMPREGNABLE MAJORITIES.

II is we'll to be not Overconf(1ent, and to look
the worst straight in the face. But 1t Is not well
to exaggerate a possibility which has been
passed Tables are printed to show that Bryan
might have been elected and all the lncalculable
consequences Of that choice might have been
brought upon the country, II comparatively few
votes In particular States had changed. These
calculations ignore the proportion of votes which
would have been necessary In each State to alter
the result. Only 1900 might have changed
Rhode Island but that would be 30 per cent OF
the entire Republican vote. When 1t was found
in 1893 and 1894 that as much as per cent OF
the Democratic vote had changed to the oppo-
site side 1t was regarded rs n stunning defeat,
and the change Of 10 per cent as something mar
vellous. But with the tide running strongly In
the opposite direction, such change in a par
ticular State would be practically Impossible.
The returns are not yet complete enough for an
exact statement, but enough Is known TO show
that Mckinley could not have been beaten ex-
cept by a state Of things causing transfer or
about tenth Of his entire vote to the other side,
and In States which were most strongly attached
to him and his policy.
Rhode Islands little majority of 10000 was
about 20 per cent Of McKinley's vote, and there
fore relatively larger and harder to defeat than
the magnificent majority Of $4,000 In Pennsyl-
vania, which was about Al per cent of his vote
there. The majority in Massachusetts was
about CO per cent, in New-Hampshire 60 per
cent, in Maine SO per cent, and In Connecticut
30 per cent Of his vote. Nobody would imagine
that such an overwhelming choice could have
been reversed. Nor was there a possibility Of
overcoming the majority Of 264 900 In New York,
which was 80 per cent Of McKinleys entire vote.
while his majority in New-Jersey was 80, and In
Pennsylvania Al per cent Of his vote. In the
face Of such a tremendous current running one
way, a transfer of a tenth Of McKinley's vote
to the other side must be considered practically
impossible. But his majority was about % per
cent Of his vote in Maryland 10 per cent in
Delaware 20 per cent In Michigan, % in Illinois,
40 in Wisconsin. 26 in Iowa. 20 in Minnesota, and
81 in North Dakota, and these States cast 203
electoral votes without considering any Of the
others which he carried. Ohio alone, with %
electoral votes and $1,000 majority, gave him
enough more to elect, though the majority there
was only II per cent Of the vote, while In West
Virginia it was - and in Indiana 50 per cent.
If he had lost Ohio alone, Of this great Northern
block Of States, or only Indiana and West Vir-
ginia he would still have been elected without
any other State In the Union.
West Virginia and Ohio were as devotedly at
tached to Mckinley himself and TO the policy
he represented as any States In the Union, and
the majorties there would have been more diff
cult to shake than any others. Indiana might
have been doubtful but for the enormous devel-
opment Of industries in the gas belt, and Mchi-
gan except for the wonderful growth OF the iron
industry in the lake region but the loss Of these
two States would not have defeated him. Had
Bryan carried all the States that were really
close, about which people are constructing ia
bles, including everything west Of Iowa and
everything south Of the Ohio and Potomac, he
would still have been beaten without such ire
mendous revolution in public opinion as would
have swept tenth Of the Republican vote over
to the other side, which would mean In these
States change Of nearly half million voters.
In these comparisons there is. Of course, pre-
supposed the same wisdom and energy which
conducted the canvass, and which swept back
into the Republican line nearly the whole Of the
silver Republicans. Without such effort. so
wisely directed. almost any disaster might have
happened. But when 1t is realized that rela-
lively fewer votes would have changed the re-
suit in Ohio and West Virginia, where Mckinley
and his cause were from the first considered ire
sistbe than in any other State necessary to his
success, 1t will be admitted that Bryan's ex
pectatlons never had any substantial basis.