New-York tribune., 1896-10-30

or some very crude and experimental Popo-
cratic politicians.
RADICAL WEAKNESS OF THE DEMOCRATS.
The Democratic organization has never been
weaker in Indiana than now Absolutely no
cooperation between the Popust and Demo-
cratic wings of Mr.. Bryans following was at
tempted as long as Mr.. Holt held the chair
manship, and little effective work has been
done since his successor was installed There
is still a good deal of friction between the
Democratic and Populist leaders and the Popu-
list organization has now been split into three
distinct factons-one wanting complete fusion
and chance to vote the straight Popocratic
ticket. another insisting only partial and
limited cooperation and separate columns on
the official ballot, and third repudiatng fusion
utterly in all its forms. The Popocratic alli-
ance has been thus assailed on both hanks by
Middle-of-the- Road Populists and gold-standard
Democrats. 1t is estimated by good local judges
that perhaps 10000 Populists will desert Bryan
ana ana vote Tor Mckinney as protest against @
the iniquities of the ruling alliance. The
strength of the godstaDdard Democratic re-
volt on the other hand, is put conservafively
at $1,000 votes.
SENTIMENT or GERMAN VOTERS.
II must be remembered that there is German
American voting population of about 10000 in
Indiana Most of those Germans live in the
southern half of the State and most Of them
have Of recent years been driven into the Demo-
cratic party by restrictive liquor selling legisa-
ton. Two-thirds at least. of the 300" have
voted the Democratic ticket for some time past.
This year. the issue of sound money, fully
two-thrds will vote against Bryan. To this large
desertion Of German Americans must be added
the Democratic business men. professional men,
clerks and literary Of all classes in the towns
and cities who have abandoned the Chicago
ticket and will support Mckinley and Hobart, or
Palmer and Buckner In this city alone there
are 10000 to 2J.UOO anti Democratic votes, and
the Palmer and Buckner State Committee has
been able to effect an organization in the south
OF twenty-five counties, II seems reasonable to
credit the revolving sound money element with
% 600 votes all told.
According to Chairman Gowdy's calculations
which agree in the main with those of other local
experts the Palmer Buckner ticket will not poll
more than 10000 votes The other 10000 Sound
Money Democrats are counted on to vote directly
for Mckinley and Hobart.
HOW THE REPUBLICANS WILL WIN
Starting then with 273. 900 votes as the normal
Republican strength deductng 10000 for silver
Republican desertions, adding 10000 for the Mid
dle-of-the- Road Populist reinforcement and 15.-
900 for the Sound Money Democratic one. the
probable Republican total vote next week would
reach 2sOOOo Adding 10000 silver Republican
votes to the normal fusion strength Of 215OOO
then deducting 1000 for Populist desertions and
2JO0 for Sound Money Democratic desertions
TO Mckinley and Palmer. the probable fusion to
tai next week would stand at 2JS,OOO.
These figures, OF course. indicate a Republican
plurality of 1000. Chairman Gowdy puts the
margin in McKinleys favor at something over
2jWN but he counts on gain Of perhaps 20Oo0
in the total vote. and believes that the far
larger proportion Of the new voters will go to
the Republican side Of the debit and credit bal
ance. Some Of the Republican managers dispute
the concession of lOWD silver Republican votes
the Bryan ticket. and assert that the real loss
in that quarter will not be greater than 1000.
II this he true. II onlst emphasizes the conserva-
tsm Of the foregoing estimates
Indiana will elect Representatives this year un-
der a new apportionment made by the last Legis-
latura and therefore far more favorable to Re-
publican success than the neGuitable Democratic
gerrymander which was recently declared uncOn-
stitutiOnai. or the thirteen Congress districts
only two. the lid. or NewAbany. and the
NIIIth or Fort Wayne. offer great difficulties TO
Republican candidates. Mr. Gowdy predicts
however. that the new delegation will he solidly
Republican. as the present one Is. The Repuhn-
can campaign will close with two-days' speak
inr tour. which General Harrison is to make to-
morrow and Saturday through the northern
counties Of the State. and from which the Re-
publican managers expect highly gratifying re-
suits