New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1896-02-25
WHEAT AND FALSE FIGURES.

WHEAT AND FALSE TIGtHLS.
Tho Agricultural Department having published
It's final statement Of the yield Of wheat in l>j''
which nobody in the trade or ont Of 1t regards
as even approximately correct 1t Is perhaps III
order TO ask those farmers at whose instance
these erroneous reports have presumably been
made for the last few years what they have
gained Ivy them. Until the Farmers Alliance
BEGAN TO manufacture Systematically false re-
pcrtS through Government a;:cnts the lowest
price OF 80. red winter wheat at Ncw-fork
FOR many years had been 20 cents in single
month Of 1881. The lowest IN 1880 had beer
81, cents though in that month the average
was 500 cents When short crops abroad lifted
the price above 81 10 70. the first half Of 1891,
and II remained at 81 during most OF the last
half. there came abslrIly false estimates OF
Weld. and with detection Il fall in price The
anal estimate for the crop Ct 1891 was demon
straby at least 30.Oo0,G0o bushels too small. ana
many commercial authorities hold 1t 50.OOo.Ooo
to 20 900 600 bushels ont of the way. The est
r,otc Of 1882 was ut least 10000 OO bushels too
low. and the price dropped to 7i3, cents in Octo-
nor with m average Of only ,5.S., in Noycm-
her then the lowest monthly average ever
known.
Matters became Il great deal worse when this
Administration selected a. statistician favorite
NJ the Alliance whose reports ,lui ky lost public
confidence The estimate for lN93 was 39j.OOO.-
600 bushels. bur The act lal Weld WAS certainly
5lOUtO 900 bushels and unless the previous crop,
,yern larger than The estimates here given. the
yi,ll in 1893 must have been J3O.O00.ooO bushels.
.Irly saw wheat fan 10 GO. cents. and the aver
A.. "a: bfff n
,hr lowest price was 59s,. AID The average only
81 81 cents. go the crop yo9r passed without any
sicn e fine exhaustion which spectators VIII
looked at the Official returns had expected. ihe
price foll to JG3.7 in Nay. ana the average FOL
that month was Js.75 cents. Then cameonccmort
alarming stories OF injury or reduction OF acreage
and the re.t. but by this time no one WAS wiiIIhS
10 trust Official stories. and with Weld officially
called $50 900 900 bushels. the price dropped in
$50, - 81. cents in October. and the monthly
average for that month WAS 5j.2N cents.
The actual injury sustained by winter wheat
in the winter # 1910 started prices upward
a little. and 10y virtue OF comparing all the time
with prcyious fllsr reports the Department again
made out estimates Of gloomy kind. But the
market though. gloomy accounts had some SOLID
basis at last and prices rose 10 SIS cents last
June. averaging 1856 for that month. but
droppcd 10 81 cents In September. AMI the year
closed with the market PA 'fcllly Wltrrl 1SG'd
~ GTlh cents. nor moving in two months rs much
rs > cents either way from that point January.
and especially February. have witnessed another
attrmr, 70 lift things and Tor while February
wheat sold ~ high rs 1jl2 cents bat has declined
. ccnts since the month began |; becomes -
importance TO judge what Is 10 be expected for
the rest Of tie crcp year. ami the fact which ai-
tracts most attention NJ present Is thIt exports
were l3.40l,19 bushels in January, Hour in
cluded. after Only 6IS4liG1 bushels In tn prcvi-
o,rs six months IL half Of February. Atlantic
exports. which alone affect prices this side OF
the Rocky Mountains have been 3.'ss',l?' bush
els. AGAINST 2.12i.j4i last year. which Is not up
10 The January rate Bu. meanwhile Western re-
ccipts continue remarkably large.
Ry the middle of February tolerably definite
idea of the size OF Il wheat crop III States this
side Of the Rocky Mountains can usually be
formed from the Western receipts. These have
hccn this year since August about l4S,0n.vc0
bushels from crop officially estimated at i6',-
OOO.OOO. against less than 1l1.00o.oO bushels
last year from a crop officially estimated at +Go-
900 bushels. and ilG,O00,u0O bushels to the
same date IN 1894. from crop in 1888 officially
estimated at 3060000O0 bushels. The crop OF
1893 was actually over Ju0.VocooO bushels The
receipts 10 date In 1893 were bu, lSo,0O0,0oO
bushels. or 81 100000 bushels larger than this
year. from crop in 1882 which actually exceeded
ijO.OOO.OOO bushels, and the receipts to date in
1892 were hut iG2.O0OuO0 or li.OJO,OOD bushels
more than this year. from crop IN 1891 actually
about Gao 100000 bushels. II is In the light Of
such facts that tho receipts this year appear TO
indicate yield last fall much larger than the
Official or most Of the other estimates. Even
now. with market so ridiculous that cash wheat
is nomlnaIly quoted at Gl. cents above the price
for February delivery, the talk is all in the nature
Of guesses about crops In Argentina and other
countries. whereas the actual visible supply III
commercial stores OF the Atlantic States is
G6. 900 900 bushels. which is more than 1t was
at date in any year prior TO 1888.