Evening star., 1896-10-23
MATHEMATICAL PROPHECY
1ndiana's Vote Analysed and Claimed for
Mckinley.
Gains and Losses as Expected by the
Various Committees and the Gem
eral Result Therefrom.
Special Correspondence of The Evening Star.


INDIANAPOLIS. October 10, 1896
The atmosphere here still remains
heavily charged with political cleo
tricity. yet the sentiment is becoming
so settled that the final outcome
may be predicted with some kind of
certainty, although no one may be able to
approximate the real plurality. No one
who Is On the ground, and who is not blind
ed by his own personal or party desires,
row doubts that Indiana is safely lodged in
the Mckinley column. but 1t may be that
his plurality over Bryan will only be a
moderate one. such as Indiana pluralities
have been in past years, hut it may prove
another landslide like that of two years
ago. Without the aid of the populists Mr.
Bryan would be a badly defeated man in
this state, and even with their aid he will
so down. The Bryan leaders have been
sehd!ng out statements that he would have
at least 10000 plurality in the state, but
their own figures do not bear them out
10 get as near as possible true concep
ton OF the actual state of affairs, / called
az headquarters again today and asked as
10 ngures. l first inquired as to what they
claimed their ret gain In the rural pre-
circts would be from the republicans and
was told the excess of free silver repub-
licans over the sound money democrats in
the country precincts would average fifteen
to the precinct; In other words that in the
&C untry precincts Bryan would get fifteen
more republican votes than Mckinley
would get sound money democratic votes.
Claims Examined.
then asked as to their claims on the
populistic vote, and they said they would
get 25.O00 Of the $4,000. My next inquiry
was as to the average Bryan would lose in
the city precincts from sound money dem
ocrats over what he would gain from free
silver republicans in the same precincts.
Ihey put the figures at ten to a precinct.
ana SAID that Of this loss Mckinley would
get s % per cent and Palmer % There are
l.oos country precincts and l, 1876 city pre-
cincts In the state. The increased vote this
year over 1896 is put by all parties at 12WN
y! this the democrats admit that Mckinley
for Bryan F
NOW. on these democratic claims and ad-
MISSIONS, the vote will stand, starting each
party with the vote received two years ago:
Democratic vote in 1894. 23s 7Yo
Gnln from popilists. s.................... 25,WO
r"rt!. per cent OF new vote. .............. $500
Total .2:s, ,a,2
Deduct loss in cities. es.................... II 3GO
Actual Bryan vote. ........... ........ 27s, 1872
Rs publican vote in 1894. 94.............2S3 2S3 405
Gain, t5 per cent. Of sound money democrats
Sixty per cent. Of new vote. 200
Total ......................... so1 .ai5
Deduct loss in country precincts ....... 25.UaO
Actual Mckinley vote. .2I8,925
Estimate Analysed.
1t will be seen that giving Bryan all his
leaders claim. and only allowing to Nc
Kinley what they are willing to give away,
Mr.. Bryan's plurality will only he 2,1GI,
instead of $4,000. as they have been de-
claring they would have. The fact Is
that carcfn1 nf ba ALI x,,yn
close that they claim too much, and do
not give. their opponents anything like
what they will get. but this is the case
with all political committees. The repub-
licans claim and believe their gains in
the country precincts will quite largely
exceed their losses. and the indications are
they are not so very far wrong in this.
1t has become evident within the last week
that the republican disaffection has been
dwindling very rapidly in the country
while IN the same sections there has been
more pronounced gold sentiment. The
republicans also claim that the number Of
scrrd money democrats in the cities will
average 80 at least, and that Mckinley
will get 30 per cent of them. In both of
these claims the sound money democrats
join. If Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, Evans
vile and Elkhart may be taken as fair
samples Of what the vote will be in the
other cities, the sound money vote will
average more than 30 to a precinct.
Now, taking the claims of the two par
wv
guine Of its own side, it certainly is fair
to Mr.. Bryan to give him half what his
managers claim In the country precincts.
1t ought to be said that many populists
declare MIR. Bryan will not get more than
2O.O00 CT the populi3t vote, and that num-
ber Is all that the republicans concede to
Bryan. but 1T is certainly fair to Mr.. Bryan
to give him all that he claims of this vote.
Having cut down the democratic claims in
the country one-half, 1t will be right to
cut down that of the republicans in the
city In the same way. and then that would
only give the sound money democrats five
more votes to precinct than the Bryan
ties Aoncede. A gain for Bryan of 71-2
to a precinct in 1,6GS precincts would be
12,51O. A loss of Is in 1,i36 precincts
would be q, $40
How 1t May Stand.
On this basis the vote would stand:
Democratic vote in 1894. LBS. 732
Cain from republicans. .................... 12,319
Gain from populists. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS. 25,0o0
10 per cent of new vote. ................... 4.SOO
l0tal .-Si OfS
Deduct sound money democrats. ............. 21,540
Actual Bryan vote. .259, 502
N. H.. t.