New-York tribune., 1896-12-27
GUESSING AT WEATHER.
roREcAsrING MONTHS IN ADVANCE.

OFFICIAL ATTEMPTS TO PREDICT THE GENERAL
CHARACTER OF THE TWO RAINY
SEASONS. on wHIcf THE CROPS
IN INDIA DEFEND.
The famine in India. which has proved boon I.
American growers Of and dealers In wheat bu,
viii, Is an appalling anllciion 10 millions os human
beings In Englands great Asiatic possession is the
result Of the failure OF rains in certain parts OF that
Empire during the last year. This fact draws A..
tcntion just the recent remarkable effort,
made under the auspices Of the indian GOvernmen,
to forecast the general character Of the seasons sew
erll months in Advance These efforts still crude
and based on confessedy Imperfect knowledes
OF the natural laws involved. But in some respects
the work i unparalleled. 1t l. performed. no, by
'cranks," but by trained and eminent neteorolOgss
TIE enterprise IL conducted In the interest Of n.
public. and of pirate spectators. And IA.
guesses. such as they are. enjoy the prestige which
comes from official sanction. and are not the out.
givings OF individual scientists.
Il will be rem. mDcred iha there arc three genera,
seasons in Hlnlostan. From the cessation OF N.
summer rains usually IN September well on toward
the beginning of January cool bright weather ur.
walls of the country. the prevailing winds
especially toward the latter part Of the season com.
ing from the northeast. ard seldom acquiring
velocity OF more than few miles hour. From
some time in January until along IN April there Ar.
occasional StDTir- Wl'u move dNIO-- NDftNrfN INDIA
preceded by southery winds and attended with more
or less precipitation. This j. called the "wIn,s.
rain" The light nor;heasterly or CONTINENTAL breezs
is supposed to predonnate during this season. ard
therefore, these rains said 10 belong 10 the
,.vinter monsoon" The amount Of water actually
deposited on the earth IL not usually great. and Il
il very variable. Bu, II depends almost entirely
the success or failure Of the "rabi," spring crops
over wide extent OF territory in the northern hal.
of Iilndostan.
Finally. after several weeks OF very ho, nns
weather lpossbiy interrupted Win thunder saowerS
the great summer rams set in These begin IN Csyon
in May and creep up the VS. coast. ma, b. ,hs
second week Of June usually al Western india .s
getting the benefit Of steady do~ap0ur This ssts
in over In the vicinity Of Calcutta ana up along
6;anges in Northern India week 50 later than a,
BOMBAY There nay te snort interruption. called
break in the rains" late in July in August,
with renewal of the clouds ani precipitation: bu,
suca temporary cessation Is not regular phenom-
onon. II IN" season be a normal ono IL VIII con-
tlnue well into september. over great part o.
india this Is the principal rainy period oi the year.
and upon ne continuance Of its snelterng cloud
sheet and plulal bounty depends the abundance o.
the early autumn crops.
The rains in turn are due 20 the summer mon-
soon" a wind blowing from the toward the
land and generally much stronger than the winter
monsoon On the west coast il blows from the
west or southwest. whereas over near the head OF
the Bay OF Bengal 1t comes rather from the south
In the upper GanSes Valley the direction IS eas;erly
or southeastery. In spite of these local and easily
explained differences the air currents themselves
All proceed from one general source. the great
trade wind bet, which in winter lies soutn OK the
equator, but in summer swings up until II oathes
all of India South Of the equator these trades
blow from the southeast: but north of that line
they curve about and assume southery. south
westerly or westerly direction. Whenever there s
break in the rains the west coast II Is
found that the wind has 70; around TO the north
west
So far as the weather Is concerned-and it IS con-
cerned very grcatly-the Two factors IL the agr-
cultural prosperity Of the Hndoos are the pen.tuos
and precise location OF thu light winter ralnfaN ln
Northern India. and the duration and Intensity OF
the summer monsoon. Ana these tie MeIgoro,os
ical Bureau now undertakes to predict. Inc Iaie
Henry r. Bldnford orig9ated a the M IGmnne nsss S
ing the winter often followed by deficient sum-
for the few weeks preceding the winter rainfall.
should happen to be 4 little above or little below
the mean for many years. "A clrw would be afforded
to the paths of the winter storms;
But the first OF these local indications has been
found TO be only partially trustworthy. Although
it has not been discarded. it is used only as =
mror r Eot m now ' at the head Of the weaher
service in India. and meteorologist of high repu'
aion has been led by his recent researches 10 be-
leve that the chief object OF attention should %
the trade-vind belt, In other words ne thinks
soon proceeds from behind and not from IN 'front.'
as was formerly suPpoS.d' ana nat the the streng,h
of the southeast trades. OF which 1t is continua-
tion.
The new policy of the Bureau therefore. Is 20 treat
tho latter element the chief one in the problem.
and employ the local pecu.iarities Of ATMOSPHERIC
pressure land ana tho previous winters snowfall
/ in the Hmalayas only modifying factors Conse-
quenty. pains taken to collect data in regard -
wind force south Of the equator as well a. north.
particular attention being paid % the conditions eX.
isting in April and May. Geographic adyicss are
obtained for this purpose. from Zanzibar and no
island OF Mauritius out in The Indian Ocean. And
authority has been Obtained FOR the laying OF cable
thence the Seychelles group.
In addition those local variations from the nor.
NAL atmospheric pressure over the land 10 which ref
has already been made. there Is another Curl
OF high pressure. lasting several months.
which sweeps at irregular intervals rom west 10 east
least twelve such bows have rolled over the north.
part Of Hiniosan in the las, twenty years and
II has been found that they exercise a marked in
fIence on the direction Of both winter and summer
rising just before the southwest monsoon sets .n the
latter is weakened and the rainfall is deficient, Tho
the other hand the advance OF OF these waves In
November 10 increase the wind force and rain.
fall OF January. In order discover the approach
of these surges the Bureau will establish an observ-
ing station in Persia. Further hints may also be Oh.
ained. pei haps. from regions south OF the equator
inasmuch there Is some 10 think tha there
Is deficiency OF air pressure on one side OF the Inc
when there Is excess the other The barometer
We. the anemometer. therefore Will De closely
watched in Mauritius and the Seychelles
While the situation Of India is in respects ex-
too soon 10 say that the system OF .0recas,inS
may also succeed in Europe ami America. OF
course. the work is sill in rs infancy and Is valuable
rather for what Il promises than for what !, has
the results of further investigation and experiment
will be.
4 NATURAL APARTMENT T-HOTSE