The Saint Paul globe., 1896-12-14
MILLIONS IN EXPORT BILLS
HELD BACK TO PREVENT A CRI-
SIS on THE EUROPEAN
BOURSES.
THIS LOOKS LIKE GOOD TIME.
When America Can Again Dictate
Hopeful Feeling In Trade
Circles.

NEW YORK, Dec. 13.-In his weekly
review of the financial situation Henry
Clews says:
During the past week the course Of affairs
in the investment markets has been somewhat
irregular, though preponderantly. steady to
strong Among would-be buyers, there is nat
urally disposition to Lne inactivity in
cident to the close of the year for depressing
prices, in order to get stocks for the buoy
ant period that usually comes with the open
ing OF the new year, and this influence may
be expected to make itself felt until the end
of this month The tendency has been en-
couraged by the effect of the storms upon
railroad traffic and by the seasonable decline
in the movement of grain and cattle. But,
at the same time, the feeling among railroad
managers is one Of much confidence in an
early increase OF business which Is evil
denced by their generally enlarged orders
for rails and for replenishments of rolling
stock.
Although the opening of congress has ex-
cited considerable interest IN wall street. yet
it can hardly be said to have had any disturb
ing effect The presidents message was, upon
the whole, we'll received. There can be no
doubt that the past uncertainty as to the
disposition of the administration on the Cuban
question has in some measure held IN check
the current Of prosperity which set In after
election The vivid recollection of the Vene-
Zuelan message naturally made many people
timid lest the country might again be taken
by surprise through some disturbing outcome
VI our TeidllO4S WlIH Spain, anu LQlS Sus-
pense has undoubtedly held back recovery in
certain directions. The president however,
has now revealed the whole situation and has
fully stated the attitude of the government,
and that with a spirit Of openness and candor
which may help to obviate misunderstand-
ings with Spain. The public appear to gen.
orally accept MI. Cleveland's position as
wise and moderate and the same view is
apparent in congress, with little, regard to
party. Thus, on this question, a great re-
lief has come over the public mind; and the
impression prevails that, unless Spain should
assume an utterly reckless attitude. this dan
gerous issue may be ultimately settled upon
a pacific basis. So far, therefore, as respects
the Cuban difficulties, the nightmare is now
d1spelled, and business men can again move
forward with their enterprises. without fear
of disturbance from Washington. 1t Is quite
possible that individual members Of congress
may seek to air themselves on this subject
but congress as a whole appears to sanction
the tentative policy expounded In the presi-
dents message, and such sensations can
therefore have little influence.
The feeling In trade circles continues buoy
ant and hopeful. Here and there, however,
the question is asked-where is the great i'm
provement in business that was promised as
the consequence Of Mr.. Mcf<inley's election?
The answer is that it is on it's way and
will put in its appearance as the
march OF the seasons permits. Some critics of
the situation seem to have imagined that the
promise of better times meant that merchants
and traders who had already bought their
winter supplies and were busy clearing them
cut NOulu proceed TO r6-StOck themselves
for the seasons trade and SO duplicate their
business at the end Of the years business.
Inls, or course, would not be a revival of
trade, but commercial madness or a trade
miracle. No intelligent merchants have cher
ished hopes Of any such impossibility and
yet they have generally expected a great
business recovery, and have no doubt that it
did really arrive a few days after the election
and further feel assured that 1t has come to
stay. They consider that 1t is an improve
ment in business when confidence is well re-
lying apprehension, when under the influence
OF that hope the idle mills all over the coun-
try start into activity and when the distrib-
ut1ng trades largely increase their orders
for the spring business. That is the kind
OF recovery practical men of business have
anticipated; and the realization of their hopes
has not fallen far below their expectations,
sangu1ne as they may have seemed to pes
simistic minds. The full fruition of these
improvements will be in evidence when dis
trlbuters and retailers begin to supply the
ue,nano uiH Ior the spring market; when the un-
Deneying depreciators will have to confess
that the recovery growing out of the sound
money victory is something more than
myth.
There are also bilious persons and papers
who express great deal of disappointment
because Europe has not been led by the
election results to buy a large amount of
our securities but has on the contrary sent
home a large amount of our stocks and
bonds. This is another case Of dlsappoint-
ment at the non-appearance Of miracle. The
CICCtlOu CdH0 JUST AFTER we had imported
some $40, GOO of gold from London and
the continent. Between the beginning of
August and the end of October the Bank of
England had lost $56, 100000 of gold, the
Bank OF France $28. 500, 600 and the German
Reichs bank $4,000, 900, making a. total loss
in the three great banks Of $97 600 OO0 The
Bank of England had consequently put up its
rate of discount from to per cent and
the Reichs bank from to per cent. while
consols had fallen 5A points and German
imperial bonds had declined 21k. The Lon
don stock market and the continental bourses
were in condition closely bordering on
crisis and all kinds of stocks fell heavily ex-
cept Americans. The controlling foreign
banks were using all their power to check
the adverse course Of the exchanges inciud-
ing especially disbursement to the i'm
portatton Of foreign Investments 1t was in
this condition of foreign finances that Eu-
rope received the news of our political vie
tory. The intelligence was received with
hattering recognitions OF it's bearing upon
our credit, and was followed by a rise of
to 71R per cent in stocks at New York In
TIE impecunious condition of London and
Berlin this temptation to make handsome
profit on stocks and at the same time
stop the shipments of gold to New York was
too strong not to be turned to account and
some $40 600 Of our securities were sent
home within few days. This refiux of stocks
was taken here without a vince and with
no very visible result upon prices. 1t had.
however. the gratifying effect of EquidaHing
$40 100000 of our Indebtedness to Europe.
in lieu of increasing 1t by sending out
fresh large amount of our obligations which
had been anticipated. Thus IL, owing to
exceptional conditions the effect Of the elec
tfon upon foreign investors did not turn
out in the way anticipated we had instead
result quite beneficial to ourselves and
better calculated to bespeak confidence in
American finance. Nor is this the only
evidence Of the revival of home finance Our
capitalists are today holding some 500 0o0 mn
to SIS 000. 900 of export bills, which. had thew
gone forward after the usual course. wouId
have created virtual panic in Europe by
bringing hither an equal amount of gold By
thus virtually lending a large amount of
gold to the European banks we are saving
them from Threatened serious difficulties. Con-
trast this condition of financial resource with
the condition OF affairs in Wall street IN
to the election and some estimate NAV he
formed Of the extent OF the recovery Of
financial confidence since Nov s. A little
reasonable patience will later bring still fur
ther evidences of the great revival conseouent
upon the defeat. of free COINAGE
The easier tendency IN the London money
market is an encouraging symptom the
market rate being now fully per cent below
the bank rate. This change has stoned the
local demand for export bills for boarding
with the effect Of weakening the market for
sterling bills. As. however remittances will,
now have to be made for interest payments
to foreign investors the reduced nuotations
for bills of exchange are not calculated to
cause revival of gold Imports