The herald., 1896-10-28
THAT RECORD" BALLOT.
Clarence A. Miller Makes an Analysis
of the Figures Reported

Clarence A. Miller Makes an Analysis
of the Figures Reported.
Editor Herald: Recently attempted
to show in an article in your columns
of how little significance were the plu-
ralities in the postal card vote held by
the Chicago Record in some of the CEN
trail states. The article consisted of a
calculation from the reports themselves,
showing that those who voted for Har-
rson in 1892 were sending in their pos
tai votes. while those who voted for
for Cleveland in 1892 were largely not
taking part in the postal election.
This may arise partly because a large
part of the Democratic and Populist
vote sa labor vote, whose residences
are not so permanent as those of the
weather. vote, and thus the ballots do
not reach them through the mails; part
ly because many Democrats and Popu-
| lists do not wish to participate in an
election held by Republican paper, and
| thus furnish their political enemies will.
poll list; and partly because many
| laboring men are situated that secret
| ballot is necessity to them ,and they
| have, perhaps, reason to fear that the
Record ballot is not as secret as prom
| Used.
| But the report Of this postal ballot con-
| tains one feature of value. 1t shows
| how many of those participating have
| changed from Harrison in 1892 to Bry-
| an in 1896, and how many from Cleve-
| land in 1892 to Mckinley in 1896 OF
course, the failure of Bryan men to par
| ticipate in postal election has a ten
dency to reduce the reported changes to
Bryan, but, as we shall see, we can
waive that.
In practically every state the Populst
vote was much larger in 1894 than in
| 1892, and 1t is certainly safe to say that
in 1896 it cannot fall below that of 1892,
and will all be cast for Bryan In the
following estimates we assume that in
each state the Populist vote will go to
| Bryan and be as large as in 1892
The estimates are from the report OF
| the postal card vote in the Times of Oc-
! tober 27.
In Indiana the total vote by postal card
is 1888. which is 1-29 of the total vote
| of the state in 1892 Bryan gains by con-
verts net over Mckinley in this postal
| card election over 1892 356 votes. At this
| rate he ought to gain in the whole state,
| by converts from Harrison voters less
Mckinley converts. 356x29-that is, 10,-
S24. But in 1892 the Democrats and Pop
| ulsts outvoted the Republicans by 49,
| 3S3. Indiana ought to go for Bryan, ac-
| by 1857.
| Take Missouri: Whole postal card
vote, 1880; whole vote in 1892, 540,S60;
| postal card vote is about 1-3O of whole
| vote of the state; on the postals Bryan's
| net gain in converts over 1892 is 513: at
| this rate his gain in the state would be
| 5l3x3O, or 1880. Democratic and Pop
ulist plurality over Republicans in 1892
was S2693. This indicates Bryan's plu-
| rality this year in Missouri sos, ,OS3
| Take Nebraska: Whole postal card
| vote, 744, being about 1-26 of vote of the
state; Bryans net gain over 1892 in con-
verts on the postals is 207; multiplied by
| 26, it gives 1882; add this to the Demo-
| cratic and Populst plurality in 1892
| (20,S50), and it gives 26.232 for Bryan's
estimated plurality in Nebraska.
Take Kansas: Whole postal vote,
$685. being 1-32 of whole vote of state;
Bryan's net gain in converts on postals
over 1892 is 507; at this rate he should
| gain in the whole state 1924; the Re-
| publicans lost the state in 1892 by 1914;
total Bryan plurality 22,09S.
Take Minnesota: Whole postal vote.
| 1918, being 1-34 of state vote; McKinley's
net gain over 1892 by converts SO far as
shown on postals, 1876; at this rate he
| should gain in the whole state $3.50; fu-
sion plurality in 1892 over the Repub-
| licans, 16,946; deduct the above McKin-
| ity this year at 1876.
Take Kentucky: Whole postal card
vote. 1886, being 1872 of state vote;
Bryans net gain over 1892 by converts
| so far, 131; estimated gain in whole
state, 4192; fusion plurality over Re-
| publicans in 1892, $3.50; Bryan's esti-
| mated plurality, 67,712.
Take North Dakota The postal vote
| Is about 1-36 of the state vote; figuring
| in the same way as above brings Bryan
out ahead by about 145. But this is a
| little state when it comes to voting and
| miss is as good as a mile.
Take South Dakota: Here the postal
vote is about 1-35 of the total vote Har-
rison carried the state by plurality of
| 8344 but he got 1877 less than the combi-
nation vote of Cleveland and Weaver.
Figuring as above brings Bryan out
31S7 ahead in this state.
The above states, together with the
southern states, the Pacific states and
| the Rocky Mountain states, give Bryan
a majority of the electoral college and
seventeen electoral votes to spare.
This is giving to Mckinley, for the
sake Of peace, Connecticut, Delaware.
Illinois, Iowa, Michigan. New Jersey
and Wisconsin, also Ohio, for state
pride. Besides, of course, we are giving
him the states claimed for him and not
disputed.
There is but one significant feature
| of the postal card election held by the
Chicago Record, namely, the statement
of changes from Cleveland to Mckinley,
and from Harrison to Bryan, and that
feature points to the election of Bryan.
CLARENCE A. MILLER.
|