The Saint Paul globe. (St. Paul, Minn.) 1896-1905, 1896-10-15

az nrst, but as the Chicago platform has
become more generally understood, and the
substantial and conservative men of the
party have come to q full realization OF the
danger that would attend the success OF the
lawless and revolutionary In this campaign,
the disapproval of the candidate and the
platform and of the unnatural alliance OF
the two parties, has been made manifest in
no uncertain terms. 1t is noticeable that
this Is not alone on the ground of objection
to the money plank of the fusion platforms,
put is most frequently pronounced against
the provisions OF the Chicago platform in
relation to the power of the executive and
the supreme court and against the men of
the Tfllman and Altgeld stripe who have
been so prominent in the national conven-
ton.
1t may be safely said, then, that fully one
nalf OF the gold Democratic party will not
vote for the Bryan electors. Some of these,
say four thousand, will vote for The Palmer
ana Buckner ticket but a greater number,
not less than six thousand. will vote for
Mckinley, thus leaving as a liberal estimate
eight thousand Of Democrats, with about
twenty-six thousand Populists to vote for
Bryan The thirty-four thousand votes thus
obtained by him will be swelled by a few
silver Republican votes, variously estimated
at from three to five thousand which will
not be cast for Mckinley. This estimate
gives Bryan and Watson a total of thirty
nine thousand votes liberal figure. On
the other hand. after deducting five thou
sand disaffected Republican votes, Mckinley
will still have an easy thirty-six thousand
and, with the six thousand Democratic votes
safely counted on, should have total of
forty-two thousand, or plurality of three
thousand.
This way of estimating the VOTE how
ever, is necessarily uncertain and unrelia-
bic. safer plan is to take the state by
counties and, after comparing local reports
and estimates from each precinct, determine
the percentage OF gain or loss. By this
method the estimates exceed the figures
above given. When the Bryan conventions
adjourned the silver cause was much more
vigorous than it has been at any time since.
In the first place, most thorough cam
n n ion nf n6Tf hoe h1nr1 ar%-io6
the Republican state central committee and
the Republican league of Oregon. The
causes Of the hard times have been thor
oughly discussed by the best speakers that
could be procured and the state has been
thoroughly covered with sound money and
tariff literature. This work has been sup
made by Senator John H. Mitchell Gov Nc
Connell, Of Idaho, and other silver Republi-
cans, who have had great influence in pre-
yafling upon Republicans who favor free
coinage Of silver to stay with their party.
Another potent factor has been the hostile
legislation of the present administration and
the Well-known views of Mr.. Bryan against
the protection of the wool growing indus
try. Some sections of Eastern Oregon, for
example, where wool-growing is important
and where Democratic majorities are gener-
ally expected, will vote solidly for McKin-
ley for tariff reasons.
A few counties will give very large ma
critics for Bryan and will increase the nor
NAL majority to be overcome by the vote
elsewhere For example, in the Willamette
valley which is in the western part of the
state, in certain farming sections Populism
and free silver have taken deep root, and
the vote cast against the Republican ticket
in the state election held last June will be
exceeded by the vote for Bryan. This is prob
ably true, also, but for different reasons, in
two of the extreme eastern counties of the
state. But this is more than offset by the
gains for Mckinley in other sections. The
growth of the Republican cause in some
parts of the state has been simply astonish-
Ing. The steady trend of sentiment has been
toward Mckinley, and 1t is not to be denied
that the Bryan cause has not gained since
his first New York speech. Every day that
passes adds to the confidence of the McKin-
ley supporters This is not so much a mat
ter of actual figures 1t Is in the
eouragement received from all quarters, apd
the very apparent fact that throughout the
state it is now almost universally admit
ted that Mckinley will not only carry Ore
president Of the United States.
Multnomah county, which includes the city
of Portland. and is the most populous coun-
ty in the state, is usually Republican by
twenty five hundred to three thousand. 1t
is probable that it will be carried for Nc
Ktnley by as much as four thousand. His
plurality in the state, including Multnomah
county, is likely to be about equal to what
he has to his credit in Multnomah county.
In other words, the state outside of that
county will be nearly neutral factor, the
Mckinley counties about off-setting the
Bryan counties But as the Brayn forces
are now retreating, and the enthusiasm for
the Republican standard-bearer continues to
augment itself, and there Is still another
four weeks of the campaign, it is not at all
improbable that the figures will far exceed
this estimate. Gov. Lord carried the state
In 1892 by plurality of 1905; Judge Bean
for supreme Judge in 1896 by about 14,000,
it is manifest that the Democrats and Popu-
lists combined cannot cast as great vote
in this election as they did separately in Ell
ther of those state elections. If they fall
three thousand under their combined vote
in 1894. or four thousand under their COM
bined vote in 1896, they will lose the state,
even If the Republican vote does not in
crease. Looking at 1T in this way, if the
silver Republicans who vote for Bryan Off
set the Democrats who will vote for McKin-
ley land it is generally believed that this
will not be the case), the Republicans will
still win the state If the Palmer ticket gets
as many four thousand Democratic votes.
1t is therefore safe to consider Oregon's four
electoral votes in the Mckinley column.
Chairman Republican Congressional Com
mittee and President of Republican League
Of Oregon.
THE DEMOCRATIC VIEW.
The political outlook in Oregon at this date
is that the state will go for Bryan and Wat
son, to whom the Bryan electoral ticket is
pledged. There are no Sewall electors in the
field here, the Democrats having withdrawn
their ticket as the only means of securing
the solid Populist vote to Bryan. The Ma
tional Democratic (gold) ticket put in the
field for the purpose Of securing per cent
of the vote, in order to establish under our
ldW iSSdi SIduulu6 dS d party lOT Tie
future, will fail of its object because the
gold standard Democrats, who are behind this
movement and who are of the silk-stocking
stripe, hate Bryan and the principles he rep
resents more than they cherish the hope of
holding to themselves the old party name
and will therefore support Mckinley. The
Republicans, of course, claim the state and
are doing everything in their power to make
the results tally with their claims. They are
receiving reports from some parts of the
state to the effect that many Democrats and
Populists f1ocking to the Mckinley stand
ard, and our Bryan club reports show ex-
actly the opposite Nevertheless, a new
alignment is taking place For instance, in
one precinct, where, at the June election
there were cast 452 votes, of which number
the Populists and Democrats combined, polled
H2, we now have club Of 347 OF this mem
bership, forty-four were Republicans and vot-
ed that party's ticket in June. In the same
precinct three Democrats who voted for the
Independent Republican gold standard candi-
date for congress will support Palmer and
seven Democrats will vote for Mckinley This
is a sample report, and is verified by the
signatures to the Bryan club roll My judg-
ment, that the state will go for Bryan are
based on the showings in these reports and
on the fact that the combined Democratic
and Populist vote in June shows clear ma
jority of 4,300 over the Republicans.
John G. Young
Of Democratic State COMMITTEES
EAnEvvxErT r7nry SArarrv