New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1896-08-21
THE FTTTRE OF CHINA.

THE FUTURE OF CHINA
The visit Of ii Hung Chang to Europe has
given rise to much discussion concerning his
errand. or his various errands. and to much spec
ulation on the future of the Empire Of which he
is the most eminent representative There seems
to be general expectation that some important
new departure" will result from his Journeys
and negotiations, some greater opening or
China" whatever that may mean. Just what
It does mean, what the potential ''opening' will
be, Is n matter of wide disagreement 1t might
be an intellectual awakening, or domestic reyo-
luton. or vast commercial and Industrial prog
ress. or partial or complete conquest by foreign
Powers. Indeed some great impending change
seemed to be indicated before Ii set out upon his
travels The japanese war and its immediate
consequences the treaty with Russia, and other
circumstances showed that the China OF to-mor-
row was likely to be somewhat different from
the China of yesterday. 1t is evident that any
important change in China is a matter OF serious
concern 10 all the world. There may be no fear
Of another Mongol raid upon Europe. The vast
numbers of the Chinese people may he no men,
ace to the peace of the world and 10 the security
of civilization. But the combination which
China possesses Of nestimable agricultural and
mineral resources. and Of innumerable work
men to develop them. presents the possibility
Of movement that will revolutonize the COM
merce and industry Of the world
An anonymous writer in The Forinlghtly Re
vlew." discussing this question. decres at the
outset fatal error the notion or the hope
that the Chinese race contains within itself the
promise and potency Of reform. 1t does not.
It's hereditary conservatism is an essential part
Of Its nature China is n land of villages. and
the average vager is bound TO his village by
his very religion and by every other tie. He
cares for and knows nothing outside OF it,
few Chinese along the coast and great rivers
have come into contact with outside civilization.
SO have those who have emigrated to foreign
lands for n time and then returned home. But
these, though numbered by hundreds Of thou
sands are too insignificant fraction even to
serve as eaven for the whole lump. The mass
Of the people. the overwhelming mass. are intel
lectually and socially where they were a thou
sand. perhaps many thousand. years ago. For
at least twenty centuries the principles Of the
Chinese State have been absolutely fixed. There
have been revolutions Tartars, MOngols and
Manchoos have successfully achieved the con-
quest of the Empire only TO be overcome by the
Chinese spirit and TO be merged into the Chinese
mass Even the TAPPING Rebellion. the greatest
convulsion any nation has suffered in modern
times. had it been successful, would have made
no radical change. Hung and his Wangs would
in their turn have yielded to the irresistible Wis
inertiae
If, then, there be no hope of reform from with
in, 1t must come, II at ALL from without, and in
the shape Of conquest. Nothing the writer in
THE FOrtnightly' thinks. has saved China from
conquest but her size and remoteness. Year by
year she is growing weaker, an easier prey. Her
only change Is decadence. III Hung Chang Is a
great man. but feeble successor Of Kublai.
The great cities Of Marking, Soochow and Hang
chow desOlate ruins. Tributary kingdoms
have been lost such Anam. Burmah and
Corea All over the Empire "the glory has de-
parted" To-day a single brigade of European
troops could march from Canton to Picking with
out meeting serious opposition. The capture Of
the Forbidden City would be hardly more diff
cult than that OF Coomassie. This Is probably
true but there is one other fact that must be
taken into account-namely, that the very weak
ness and decadence Of China would make its
conquest a matter Of enormous difficulty The
mass might be penetrated. 1t could not be split
or shattered. The capture of Picking would not
mean the submission OF the Empire. town n
mile away would be just as persstently Chinese
as ever. To effect the conquest Of the Empire
1t would be necessary TO conquer and occupy
each and every individual city, town and village
from the Yellow Sea 10 the Pamrs just
Saragossa stormed and captured house by
house. That Is a task the greatest Power might
well hesitate TO undertake
The writer quoted looks at the from the
British point Of view. He sees clearly two
things. one is, that Great Britain is not ready
at present to undertake the conquest Of China
The other is. that Russia is ready, and has acu-
ally ENTERED upon the task; which. indeed. is evil
dent 10 the whole world He argues. therefore,
that Great Britain ought. out Of regard for her
own interests, to play the part of the dog in the
manger. She will not cannot herself seize
upon China. and she ought not to permit any
other Power to do So She ought TO support and
maintain, by whatever means may be- neccs-
sary. the existing system in China against all
foreign aggression Al the same time she ought
to do as she pleascs in China without regard to
other nations or to China herself If British
interests require the construction Of q railroad
1t should be constructed: II the abolition Of a
Chinese Government tax II should be abolished