New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1896-09-20
SIZE OF THE COTTON CROP.
THE SEASON OF GUESSING AT HAND.

sr,r,sr,c1ANs WORKING OUT PERCENTAGES
,rrs-r ESTIMATES AROUND 100000 BALES
AT this season OF the year the co''on "e ~
the South are white with their neeoS ~ - -,
ned with plckers OF all sizes sexes a"" ,s. 49,
color The aggregate quantity p'cheo W ,.. =,
mo, e,Qers for which adequate substitute !"
.,,,norv has vet been found IL amazingly iarse
L +, ia carried by steamboats, wagon ana tram
70 the South Atlantic and Cur ports ioi ~
and for shipment North or overland 10 No''"e'
and Canadian mills and warehouses Inns 'a''
volume of cotton picked ginned and baIen ~ pe''E
TRANSPORTED TO market at present NJ 'he 'a'o VI
o., o,o baIcs a week When the movement reaches
its ma ximum provided II is stimulated by IL 'an
price as a, present. the amount OF cotton ma, Aee'
from the plantations In week VIII reach 'hc
great total OF 100000 bales
This IL the time when the markets futter up ana
down Influenced by every passing motive and crop
yuesses are rife on two continents. Estimating the
cotton crop IL a fascinating business, ana IL IL ho
wonder that about everybody who mas anything 10
do with the handling OF cotton, or Is Interested IN
getting at the size of the crop. from the Govern
mcnt's Agricultural Department down. should De
op,ring on IT every day. Elaborate and costly ef-
forts to tell the size OF the cotton crop are maze
by the Government with results wofully INFERIOR
usually 10 those obtained by private enterprise
The care and labor and patience exhibited by some
esttma tors In their efforts to guess the size OF
even though the selfish motive Of being able 10
forecast the markets and make money
easily solely actuates these Industrious persons
Some Of them by series Of approximately cor
rect estimates have established great reputation
such as Henry Neili OF New-Orleans, and Ellison.
of Liverpool though the latters chief fame rests
on his knowledge of mill consumption Of cotton In
Europe When one Of these experts springs an
estimate tho public sometimes there follows
tremendous agitation In the markets. and those
who had the benefit Of an inside Tip In time reap
fortunes i'm few hours.
a large number of crop estimates nave already
been made on this years crop The heavy experts
like NELL and Ellison have not venturcd as yet
any positive figures 10 the size OF the crop
but others. whose opinions are worthy OF consider
alton. have boldly forth the result of their OBJ
scrvations All agree that the depreciation in the
crop since the drouth set in In July has been very
severe. and the publication of their estimates
caused rise OF over 200 points or two cents a
pound in cotton since the middle Of July.
glimpse of two of these estimates one from
Mississippi and from Georgia. will serve to
show about the drift Of crop opinion this fell The
Newburger Cotton Company. of Grenada Miss.
estimate that the crop will not turn out than
7Gl5,622 bales They say that owing to the advanced
state of the crops maturity they forecast the
outturn at present well az they could in Oc-
tober of under normal conditions They
expect the bulk of the crop to be gathered by Oc-
tober l. something not known realized in their
experience The Newburger Cotton Company in
their circular say:
In our circular. issued May %, the aggregate acre
the previous year of fully % per cent. The condi
tons then prevailing were never so fattering for a
friends, in circular. with the conditions then pre-
falling ,s which were nearly perfect agreeing Hth
ing our circular with these remarks: While con-
ditions point to unusually large yield. 1t does not
necessarily mean such. as 1t Is at least four weeks
before we can count on anything assured In regard
anything like reasonable estimate Of the probable
yield" Since that time we have had conditions and
in our memory. The crop In the Atlantic states
had more than enough moisture up to July 10 and
followed as In other not so favored sections. and
nd mo not so BAD s S would be- SUPPOSED our best
crops are in these States. In Texas the weather
deal failed to terminate. thereby making poor
stands, and IN some instances replanting became
were not sufficient to maintain and prepare the
Sk to b Md the Of % heir wh f1
the Delta sufficient moisture to keep the plant IN
June y, when the precipitation ceased from then
until the latter part Of August. when general rains
haused plant About July IS we had prevailing
the S not hs ou DRY gnds
for about TfeR o S s he plant to Wit and
blight to an unusual extent.
William r Williams of Savannah estimates the
crop maximum 10000 He says in a recently
issued circular:
The acreage increased about i6 per cent. ac-
cordng 10 the bureau. and the figures generally
accepted as approximately correct. Many had pre-
viously expected larger Increase but 1t is prob
able that the good work Of the Southern press IN
pointing the disastrous results which would
follow an excessive YIELD as conrasted with the
profitable results Of a moderate crop attended by
rcmuneratve prices. had the effect of restricting
more or less the area actually planted
I'p to the middle Of July the crop promised ex-
ceptionally we'll but about that time commenced |
complaints of injury from hot dry weather. which |