New-York tribune., 1896-10-18
BLUE GRASS POLITICS.
IL.
SOME ESTIMATES ON NEXT MONTHS
PRESIDENTIAL VOTE.

SOME ESTIMATES ON NEXT MONTHS
PRESIDENTIAL VOTE.
TIE ELECTIONS or 1897. 1904 AND 1898. AND THE
LIGHT THEY THROW on THE PRES
ENT CONTEST.
tvRon A STAFF CORRESPONDENT or THE TRIsUNE'l
Louisville. Oct. 1.-THE calculation which as
sisns Kentucky's electoral vote this year 70 the
Bryan Sewall column will bear examination IN
the light OF the States recent political history.
Only an incrrable rainbow-chaser could SO mis-
interpret the results Of the last three State elec
tions as to base upon them any very hopeful or
substantial assurance Of Democratic victory
next month In these three elections-of 1885,"
1894 and 1S95--can be read the whole stor? or
the Democracy's present broken fortunes: be-
tween the lines OF the tabulated figures can be
traced that steady and surprising drift away
from Bourbon policies and prejudices which
promises. If continued a year or two longer to
convert Kentucky into a settled and thorough
going Republican State.
No comment is needed to heghtcn the effect
with which the election figures themselves ex-
pioit the remarkable growth OF Republicanism
In Kentucky since 1882. They an easy key
to the conditions which have made the success
of the Republican National ticket more than
probable this fall; they offer. besides an In
valuable basis for all comparisons and estimates
by which the chances Of the present contest can
be intelligently weighed. Below are given In
tabular form the party votes cast for President
in 1892, for candidates for Congress In 1894. and
for Governor in 1890
Republican Democratic Fopul!st.
For President. 1S0c. ...... .13544 lT5.46l cS,5O0
Fo
For Governor. 1896. ..... i7a4Ss ie3s24 1851
The salient feature of the table is, Of course,
the extraordinary increase in Republican
strength from 1892. when an adverse plurality
Of 10000 was recorded against President Harri-
son. to 1896. when William o. Bradley carried
the State for Governor by a margin of S,912
votes. The net Republican gain for the three
years was $685. while the net Democratic loss
waa 1864 swing Of the political pendulum
violent enough TO establish entirely new bal
ance Of local power.
Starting this year with an apparent preponder
ance In the State OF S91c votes. the Republican
organization and its allies Of the Sound Money
Democracy have had to meet and welcome the
additional handicap OF a fusion between the
Democratic and Populist forces which on the
face Of last falls returns has re-establ.shed
nominal opposition plurality Of 1909 To hold.
the Republican candidate for Governor. whils
detaching from the Democratic column more
than enough deserters 10 overcome the advan-
tage gained b. union of the two groups Of Mr..
Bryan's supporters is the problem set the man.
ayers OF the aut-repudiation canvass.
What grounds have the Republican leaders
for counting their gains OF the last three years
as positive and rreversible. and to what quarter
are they to look for the additional strength
necessary to wipe out the coalition majority
now standing confessedy against them?
WHERE DEMOCRATIC DECENTRALIZATION
STARTED.
The decline Of Democratic power in Kentucky
dates Enthusiastically from the Presidential eec-
ton of 1892 In that campaign the abortive
effort Of the List Congress to pass a National
Election law had temporarily rev,talized the fad
ing bugabeo OF Federal interference in State and
local politics. while the passionate Democratic
assault on the Mckinley Tariff law appealed
most pontedy to Kentucky prejudice against
the protective system of taxation. Yet in spite
Of these advantages the Democratic organza-
ton betrayed signs Of retroeression and weak
ness. The Republican Presidential vote in
creased 10301 between 1883 and 1882; the
Democratic vote decreased nearly 1000 The
Popust agitation had projected Its shadow
across the western half Of the Stats and the new
National party had polled an initial vote Of c3.
900
BY 1893 and 1894 new political issues forced
themselves TO the front and Kentucky opinion
seemed to undergo radical and startling trans
formation. The spectre Of negro domination
through Federal interference in State and local
elections. long so potent an influence in border
politics. was definitely laid when the LI1Id Con-
gress in the winter Of 1S93-'94 rubbed from the
statute books the last trace Of the Federal su-
pervsory system few months later another
treasured Kentucky fetch received fatal blow
TIE scandals and foes Of the Wlson-Gorman
tariff fight had left the Democracy here be-
numbed and supplied No State had gone fur
ther in its zeal for a non-protective tariff sys-
TEN: none had accepted with more singleness Of
view the free-trade principles grossly be-
truyed and abandoned by the trainers OF the
Wilson German tariff measure.
The rapid industrial development Of Eastern
Kentucky had already started eaven Of Pro-
lection sentiment at work: but popular disgust
at the incompetency and insincerty Of the DEM
ocratic National Organization had, perhaps.
even more TO do with the extraordinary shifting
of party allegiance which manifested itself In
the Congress elections Of 1894. Compared with
1892 the total vote cast increased By over 1000;
yet a net Democratic loss OF 15G2i was disclosed
and net Populist loss OF 4SSc The net Re-
publican gain was 23,65e The 1880 Populsts
and probably 1000 new voters had Joined the
Democratic ranks; yet these sccessions were Off
net by the desertion Of over 10000 Democrats
to the Republican standard
That this reinforcement to the Republican
column could be regarded as definite and per-
maneut one was easily proven in the election of
1906 The schism in the Democratic party be-
tween the FREQ silver coinage and sound money
factions had by that time clearly defined itself
and last falls campaign was fought out on the