The people's journal. (Pickens, S.C.) 1891-1903, 1896-11-12
n RISE MAY BE; ENPECTED.
Interesting Facts About tho Cotton
Situation-A Man Who Knows All
About the Crop and the, Market

Situation-A Man Who Knows All
About the Crop ana the Market.
Columbia State, 9TH inst.
The heavy cotton receipts since the
opening OF the crop season have created
an impression in commercial circles
that tho crop will approximate 5000,
900 ba les, but that this estimate is too
| large is the opinion Of agcntlcman who
has made careful srttLy Of the receipts
| this year compared with previous
years. and who gave Il representative
| OF Tho State an interesting talk con
corning tho cotton situation yesterday.
At the outset, nc said that prices
would scarcely be affected should Bryan:
be elected, except, possibly, there
would be temporary decline OF per-
! maps hall cent pound Immediately
following his election, after which
there would be Il slow and steady rise
Should Mr.. Mckinley be elected, prices
would boom ut Iirst and the rise ould
be firmly sustained, for tho faith that
is in him gave the statistical position
Oh cotton the serious outlook OF the
India crop, which has uctcrioratcd
very fast lately from drought, being
affected the same as was the crop in
our own country; that is, by premature
opcning Of immature bolls; shedding
OIL blooms and young bolls, would also
be Of effect.
In Egypt the crop is Il full ono and
will be equal to tho last years crop.
In this country it has practically ali
been picked and largely out OF the
farmers hands.
The October movement was smaller
than the October movement in lS95,
and only about two-thirCs OF the move
mcnt during tho same month in 1891.
Ihat portion OF the crop which was
picked and marketed during August
has already been counted with the re-
ccipts OF lSoJ 96, and should be deduct
ed from the estimates for the year
lS96 %, based on acreage and condition
in 1886. The number OF such bales is
about 100000. Taking the acreage and
condition on October lst as Il basis, the
crop would amount to 1,S9G, 600 bales:
dcducting 100000 marketed during
August makes the probable crop 1906
900 bales. Since October lst, it is
claimed, there has been an improve.
mcnt in condition, based on tODcrop
estimates. Making liberal allowance
for such bcttcrmcnt, the crop may
reach 5000, 900 bales.
Now as to consumption. Mr. Ellison
estimates the consumption OF Amer
lean cotton for the year 1867 at S.
SUI, 600 Dalcs. This estimate prcsumCs
n ontinuancc OF existing trade condi-
tion throughout the world. In India
owing to the threatened famine it was
thought that there would be IL decided
| .dIlinG on in the demand for cotton
goods, bnt If tthc sales on Luckhcc Day
arc :in indication, there will be but liz
tic chungc, II any, in the demand
The sales this year ON Luckheo Day
were '3,oOO pieces: last ycar.thcy were
10000 pieces. The stock OF manu-
facturcd cotton fabrics and yarns il
the United Kingdom is slightly les
than on the same date last year, ant
prices realized on recent sales az,
somewhat below last years.
In this country the demand has bccl
very slack during the entire summer
yet withal, stocks, except Of print
cloths, arc smaller than they have
! been for q number Of years.
The recent rise in cereals will have
ctlCGt OF creating Il larger demand as
soon as the money realized from tho
rise reaches the hands Of tho farmers.
Furthermore, at present prices fer
| cotton and for manufactured enU1- =.
manufacturers have Il haudaomC profit
in manufacture. Could they sell their
| goods they could all run full time and
make plenty Of money.
The effect of Il revival OF trade wOuld
be competitive rush for cotton between
American and foreign mill men and
tncn would result IL rapid, permanent
rise in cotton. The surplus carried
over from last year WAS much smaller
than for many years; if the crop csti-
| mated, given herein, is about correct,
| there will be no surplus or at most. less
than 100000 bales on September lst,
| 1897.
Mill men cannot afford to take
chances on having their machinery idle
should the crop of lS9I9S be II modcr-
ate or poor ore. and SO will attempt to
stock up against such Il contingency.
The whole situation points to at least
d cent II pound rise in cotton before
January lst, 1897.