New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1896-03-18
WHEAT.
OFFICIAL FIGURES FURTHER MopIFIED-THE
WIDE DISCREPANCIES FOR FIVE YEARS PAST.


WIDE DISCREPANCIES FOR FIVE YEARS PAST.
To the Editor Of The Tribune.
Sir: The Department report Of wheat IN farm
ers' hands March l is an effort to bring us
statistics more nearly into line with commerciai
returns and ascertained facts. ard as such Is 10
be commended. II is demcnstrabe that ii the
Department report Of a year ago and It's estihla'e
OF the crop OF 1895 were correct. the latest esti
mate of wheat remaining must be in error mus
a wear ago 1t was asserted that only 7oooOVOo
bushels remained in farmers hands. which, win
ISL 900 In visible supply at that time and the
le- no e.- bushels officially given the yield of
1sa5 would make G20 SG3 947 bushels. But the
exporrs in twelve months ending March were
1sG1578;6 bushels flour included the cOnsump-
tion at four and two-thrds bushels per capita
for the official account OF population would be
se7 2s0 900 and allowing only the Department es-
innate for seed 40 900 900 bushels. which is prop
ably as much too low as its estimate OF acreage
with g. Os9 900 bushels in visible supply March l
and 1923 900 900 in farmers hands the total dis-
tr,bution would be 694 500 900 bushels, about a.
100000 bushels more than the supply
There were reasons for believing the report OF a
year ago much too low. 1t is also the Judgment
of the best authorities that the estimate OF 'he
weld in 1896 was much too low and. finally, the
considered too low by those whose rough guesses
ore at all events more nearly correct. as fuie'
Than the figures Of the Department. \ little eX-
animation Of the reasons for these Opinions
seen,. 70 bo worth while. There is. first the
fact that the exports March 1-July ], last year,
A. 242 273 bushels -four included. with a third OF
a years consumption and seeding lot spring
wheat and "A Sol 900 bushels left In visible sup
ply July l. would make 2lO2OO.0OO bushels. or
b6 900 900 bushels more than the Department est-
mated as in farmers hands March /, 1879, win
the visible supplies at that date. Tnere seems u
be no escape from the conclusion that even II no
old wheat at all remained in farmers hands july
I the Government estimate must have been
$4,000 900 bushels too low.
Next the enormous receipts at Western ports
during the last year. much Of the time with
unite low prices prevailing. and the current be-
lief that prices would go higher. appear to
refute the notion that the yield or 1879 was
small. Since August Western rccelpts nav
been 155.55963S bushels. against 10 III nv
same part of the previous year, ana II Is aISo
to be noticed that consumption IN houi n n
OF Minneapolis and Supcrior-Duluth mas peeh
much of the year larger than ever. IL Is theis
fore very difficult to believe that the actual yield
last wear was as small in 1894, but in order
10 provide the surplus which WAS demohstrapy
ON hand a wear ago the yield OF 1894 must nave
been considerably create" than the Departments
estimate. Instead of 46O,2G7,o 0o bushels; com
mercal authorities have placed the !tiu iaH'
wear at more than 500.0000Oo bushels. win ihuCH
evidence to support them: but even at that sup,
position as the above figures show. thele Wouiu
not have been great surplus on mana iast
July If the stocks on hand year ago We're
LARGER by about Sc. 900 bushels than the De
partment estimated. then its present estimate OF
wheat in farmers harGs might be only aDoul
2OOO000C bushels too low. PROVIDED the yieiu III
1895 was only 467.OOO.O0O bushels, as the De
partment asserts; but practically nopCdy De-
leves that statement either
Tbe
false with regard to wheat in 1891. ST, cks Were
reduced very low July Of that year. the visible
supply to 1853 col bushels and the exports
since that date To March l. 1896. have BEEN
4 )ur included. Sl5.439 767 bushels; the consump-
tion at the rate maintained for many years with
out perceptible variation would have oeen -
As2 GOO 900 for food and 25l 100000 bushels for
seed making with 1S7 0S9 000 bushels reported
in farmers hands and visible supply March l. an
. aggregate distribution Of 27l6,l2S.OOO bushels.
whereas Government reports of yield aggregate
for the five years only 2.451. 2S oss bushels This
els In five years proves beyond a doubt that the
official reports were far too low. and there Is
not trace OF proof that the evil has yet been
corrected. on the contrary. close comparisons OF
stocks and movement indicated that the actual
WELD was about 2S 100000 bushels larger than the
estimate for 1891. about 44.0O0000 bushels larger
than the estimate for 1892 and about 103, DOC, 900
bushels larger than the estimate for 1893 and
yet these alterations with the Government estl-
mates for 1894 and 1895 would make an aggIe-
gate for 1875 for the five years Of only 263I-
100000 bushels or 100000 bushels less than the
quantity distributed. If there must be added
as high authorities believe from 100000 to 3d.
900 bushels more In farmers hands than the
Government allows. the crops OF 1894 and 1895
must together have been not 100000 bushels
only, but from 9l.000000 TO 100000 bush
els more than Government estimates, max
ing the yie1 from 100000 TO 5200OOooO bushels
for each year. 1t seems altogether probable
that when the years returns are completed,
and the quantity in sight July has been ascer-
tanned. it will be found that the crops Of 1894
and 1895 were not much If any. below the fig
ures here suggested W. NJ. G..
New-York, March 16. 1896.