New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1896-01-12
NEILL'S COTTON PROPHECY.
,,,c,.prs THAT MAKE1rLooK PROBABLE.

,.vTR ,oRDrNARY CONDITIONS PREVAILING IN THE
COTTON WORLD COMPARISONS WITH FORMER
YEARS BIG DEMAND AND Low PRICE
Cation men got out their pencils yesterday and
figured on the absorbing comparisons OF me
cbronlcle's' weekly compilation of the movement
. 3D., .o,,on croo~ The conclusions reached damp
o,.l the hear arior considerably. and infused ne"
strength into the bulls The German pear iedueiS
according to current gossip on the moor oi '"e
New-York Cotton Exchange, got Daay "hif-
.,,.I. an the fluctuations of the market last
week and lost money. The way the market Sp''''-'
hack after the passing over it Of the hoosop.h III
,n,cos ~ war specials" in the papers, gold eN-
norris and financial bogies has made piASl INK '"e
.bor, side costly luxury on seNeral oec"So"S
lately. ~ g., ,,
Summarized briefly. the bull position $ past'
on the following official figures The worlu N'',''o
s,n,lv of cotton OF all kinds is now i,lN'''o p"'S'
,p,irst tSi7s5l last year Cwnen the crop was 49,
M, ,,ls, 4sl ,;4 in 1894 (When the crop was '"'''
,.,, and lS7l so IN 1893 ONhen the crop was o'"0
These figures show decrease OF cotton :" 80"
OF 7e9sl5 compared with .ast year fa'ih7 Oh %
AM rs COMPARED with 1894. and -'"''-l oa''S "''0'
the supply OF 1888 49,. ..,,so,
Tho general disposition is to compare th's s'''
,t ,h,t NJ lSqs II is pointed out that while the
visible supply Is 2j3 ~ bales below that year no"
,.her the maximum I'm the stock has been reache"'
the consumption of this depleted supply u 'o''o'
* proceeding at the rate OF 32v' oales we" -
rurope alone more .han 1t vas in lN''' Inc nan,
chester strike began in HoVehper an" ,'
N,y CONSUMPTION in Great Britain iel duilns
a., long period from 5000 bales weekly, OF "V
nounds each 10 5000 bales, or raining OIL 81
y 60 bales of 400 pounds equal To low D"'eS VI ."
mounds The normal increase IN the E"loi'"" ~
SUMPTION has increased this difference ~ ~
balcs a week az stated. What the normal III
cr.,sa in America has been meanwhile VIII not
ntal.
,.or I'm, that II will not be insignificant may De
sur,nised from the known fact that no less IMAM
seventv-three cotton mills have been puilt III inns
country this year. This takes no account VI '"e
ad1it ons and improvements to Old nils III many
Instances extremely large and important In the
., Ina rho estimate of new spindles in opera
tion this year is placed by The Manufacture
Record" at 100000 ,,
Yet with this shortage of &S12l bales IN the Nis,-
bic supply, with crop estimated ny heiiS W.
NELL Undoubtedly the foremost crop estimator II.
American at 100000 bales less than the yie1d OF
Ise3 and with a consumption nearly or fuiy S'Vo
bales a week than 1t was at TINS time IN 1885,
.ba nr,ce Of SPOT cotton is actually l9-}2d cheaper
in IIverpool and 5-l6 cents cheaper In New-fork
than If was in 1898 at this time In this last para
graph the bull argument is fairly stated.
There Is nothing advanced by the bears to onset
this except talk of big crop next year. COTTON
nicked In october cannot be spun in September
Unless figures lie the realization of Mr.. Nelrs pre-
diction of an absolute exhaustion of European port
stocks on October next, II consumption Is I'M
checked looked more plausible than ever IN we"
OF "The Chronicles showing yesterday. the
European spinners have taken in round numbers
800 600 bales less than last year OF American cot
ton To that extent, with the addition OF 52oVS
bales less on hand at Liverpool and aioat therefor
than at this time last year has their reserve heu
abroad been trenched upon. 1t Will be eisht months
before they will get any cotton from next year
crop Notwithstanding this enormous raining OH
in the takngs Of European spnners ana ueerease
in taklngs by Northern spinners OF 400" Dales
fro,r last wear the available supply OF cotton at
the ports and interior towns or TINS country OILY
So Oo6 bales more than at this time Hast YER
Pretty soon say the bulls. there must come de-
nand for that available supply. The reserve STOCKS
~, rDars cannot suffer tins enormous depletion
without being extremely low That Manchester
Winners are buying the scale they nave Deen
lately and paying sied higher than futures sen iop
a., No needs And when they do go after the port
and interior supply then will come the rise IN cot
enn There were excellent signs on Friday OF a
naturalization OF this long-defeSksd demand The