Evening star., 1896-03-30
Mr.. MANLEY'S PREDICTION
AcKinley's Friends Do Not Think Maine
Will Turn the Tables on Ohio
Present Conditions Alleged to BE Diff
ferent From Those of the
1876 Convention.

1t was stated several weeks ago in The
Star that the anti-McKinley campaign was
being conducted on the lines of the cam
paign which twenty years ago at Cincinnati
resulted in the defeat of Mr. Blaine Mr..
Blaine In that year had the same lead over
his competitors that Mr.. Mckinley now has
over his, and yet when the field combined
against him he was beaten.
MIR. Manley's Prediction.
Mr.. Manley, in a personal letter, con-
firms The Stars statement, and makes a
prediction. History, he says, will repeat
itself. The leader, he declares, will again
go down. In 1876 Maine man was van
quished by an Ohio man. In 1896 an Ohio
man will be vanquished by a Maine man.
So Mr.. ManlCy believes.
The Mckinley men do not believe this,
and they point cut some striking differences
between the situation of 1876 and the pres
ent situation.
Mr.. Blaine. they contend, was not the
victim OF com mbination Of party ma 1agers
employing only the ordinary means of party
manipulation, but succumbed to personal
warfare and sudden personal misfortune.
Brilliant and beloved, he was vet at the
very time the nominating convention was in
session under a merciless personal fire; and,
to add to this. on the Sunday morning pre-
cedinS the day the nomination was to be
made he fell from the effects of heat at the
church door, and the report was telegraph
ei all over the country that the strike was
likely to prove fatal within very few
hours The report was a gross exaggera-
tion Of the facts, but it was impossible to
counteract the effects Of it at Cincinnati,
and one Of the results Of the story was to
demoralize the Elaine following in the con-
ventfon. Seeing this the opposition rushed
upon the Blaine boom the next morning
and finished it. The Mckinley men do not
believe that in the ordinary circumstances
Oh contention for leadership-such, for in
stance, as they expect to prevail at St
Louls-Mr. Blaine could have been bea
at Cincinnati. The lead he had and the ca
pacity of his managers would have carried
him through.
Not Happy Reference.
Nor, it is suggested Is Mr. ManIey alto
gether happy in his reference to the defeat
of Maine by Ohio that year. Ohio, it is
pointed out did not win with the man rec
oSnized as her candidate for the nomina-
tion. While Gov. Hayes had more than a
local reputation, and had been mentioned
as q presidential possibility, no campaign
mad been made for him. The men who had
met and hammered one another at the pri-
maries were Blaine. Morton of Indiana,
Br1stow and Conkling. All the effects of
heated and protracted controversies were
to be found in the ranks of their followers
and these in the end made the selection of
a compromise man imperative. And Gov
Hayes won as much by reason of the fact
that he had antagonizad nobody as that he
had the prestige of a good name and an ex-
cellent geographical position. His nomina-
ton had not been expected by a single dele
gate when the convention met
Another Name Suggested.
Such is the brief review the Mckinley
men bestow upon the Manley letter. 1t
shows, as they believe, a misconception of
the situation. Their favorite, they assert,
is the choice of the people, and as such has
the lead and will keep it. They do not con-
tend that he is superior to accidents; but
there is something interesting in the sug-
gestion that If he should succumb, and the
nomination should go to another, the win
ner would not be one who had fought him
all through the primaries, but, as at Gin
cinnati. some compromise man who had
antagoniZed nobody.