New-York tribune., 1896-09-05
WHEAT.

GOVERNMENT ERRORS OBSERVATION-DISCLOSURES
TIONs AS TO THE COMING CROP.
To the Editor OF The Tribune:
Sir: Final returns Of exports and imports of
wheat make it possible to determine beyond
dispute whether the Government estimates OF
production have been correct for the last year.
or for the previous four years. The net ey
ports. flour included during the year ending
June 80 were 126,690,2l9 bushels Reckoning
the consumption at the Government rate. four
and two-thirds bushels per capita. on the Off
cial mean Of population as estimated by the
Treasury Department. the consumption for food
would he 800 $4,000 bushels ana for seed there
must be allowed n 100000 bushels the acre
age evidently large But the Government
reported production Of only 46I,NO.OOO bush
els. and the visible supply ar the beginning OF
the year was "A 561 900 against 47.s6O000 at
the end of the year It is. therefore. plain that
the Government estimates must have been
about - 600 900 bushels out Of the way and
last March my letter based on the Of
wheat In farmers hands, stated that the yield
would probably be 13.00OOOO bushels over the
Government estimate. and that returns Of
ports and visible stocks July I will probably
leave no doubt about it." This seems to have
been fairly accurate.
It may be urged that stocks not in visible
supply have changed No doubt they have.
and il is customarilv close approximation TO
add half the visible supply allowance
for such other stocks This would only in
crease the error of the official estimate. But
there are this year two convincing reasons for
believing that a larger proportion than usual
was carried July !. The price in June was
about II cents lower than last year tending
70 prevent sales Of wheat toward the end Of the
year. and the official and unofficial reports at
that time all pointed to a large decrease in
yield compared with last year 1t is most mod
crate. in view of these facts to reckon that the
quantity carried over outside the visible supply
and the minimum touched was at least
30 900 900 bushels or 66OOOOO bushels more
than the customary proportion to the visible
supply Thus the quantity accounted for would
be SSl1J319 bushels and an equal supply
would require in addition to the 1851 900 in
visible supply and 90 PSI 900 other wheat year
ago. a yield in 1895 Of at least 52l.333.2l9
bushels Il is but proper to record the fact that
these letters originally named about $4,000
900 bushels" a year ago the probable yield.
II now seems quite likely, from the rapid move
ment In July and August that results may JUS
tify somewhat higher estimate.
Since the last point OF greatest exhaustion
Of stocks July t. 1891 when the visible supply
was only IL 5>3 601 bushels. and at the custo-
mary allowance other available stocks in ex
cess Of the minimum were only 629l 800 bush
els the consumption and exports have been -
11i OJ9 4l3 bushels including the above esti-
mate Of supplies on hand July |. 1896. This is
about 3O6 900 900 bushels more than the Govern
ment reports Of yield in the five years. so that
the demonstrated error Is about 100000
bushels per year. The statistics do not deter
mine just how great the error was each
year, but the returns OF wheat in farmers
hands March | have already been compared,
showing probable errors of about - 100000
bushels in 1891 and 1892 together. an error OF
1l5 900 600 bushels In 1893. and errors Of about
120 900 600 bushels In the last two years together
Western receipts at the principal points and the
course OF prices cast much light on the ques-
ton: the following shows the quantity OF such
receipts In each Of the last five years the
average price a New-York for each year and for
the month OF May. and the average price
on farms In the principal wheat growing States
east OF the Mississippi and also west OF the
Mississippi for the month Of December: