Evening star., 1896-10-14

state central committee has withdrawn the
four electors nominated by the state con-
Ventlon or that party. and has, by agree
ment with the popuists, named a new set
OF electors 10 vote for Bryan and Watson.
Those composing the better element in the
democratic party, who are as radically op-
posed to populism as the republicans are,
resent this action and will not support the
ticket. The administration, or Cleve-
land. democrats, and, indeed most CT the
pI ointment men of the party. openly assert
their intention to support Mckinley, aEd
some of them have taken the stump in his
behalf. The protest was feebly heard at
first, but as the Chicago platform has be-
come more generally understood. and the
substantial and conservative men of the
party have come to a full realization Of the
danger which would attend the success of
the lawless and revolutionary in this cam
paign. the diSapproval Of the candidate and
platform, and CT the unnatural alliance of
the two parties, has been made manifest
In no uncertain terms. 1t is noticeable that
this is not alone on the ground of objection
to the money plank of the fusion platforms,
but Is most frequently pronounced against
the provisions Of the Chicago platform in
relation to the power of the executive and
the Supreme Court and against the men of
the Tillman and Altgeld stripe who have
been SO prominent in the national conven-
ton.
Figuring Mckinley's Plurality.
1T may be safely said then. that fully
cre-half of the old democratic party will
not vote for the Bryan electors. Some Of
these say 1900 will vote the Palmer and
Buckner ticket, but a greater number, not
less than 5000. will vote for Mckinley,
thus leaving a liberal estimate 5000
democrats. with about 5000 populists, TO
vote for Bryan. The 81 900 votes thus OBJ
tanned by him will be swelled by a few sill
yer republican votes, variously estimated at
from 1000 to 5000. which will not be cast
ofo eyi,-a D,-,,o
and Watson a total of $1,000 votes, lib
eral figure On the other hand, after de-
Quoting 5000 disaffected republican votes,
Mckinley will still have an easy 36 600
and with the 6.nOD democratic votes safely
counted on should have a total of 1900,
or plurality of 5000.
This way of estimating the vote how
ever, is necessarily uncertain and unrelia-
BILE. A safer plan is to take the state by
counties. and after comparing local re-
ports and estimates from each precinct
determine the percentage Of loss and gain.
BY this method the estimates exceed the
figures above given. When the Bryan
conventions adjourned the silver cause was
much more vigorous than it has been at
any time since. In the first place. a most
thorough campaign of education has been
carried on by the republican state central
committee and the republican league of
Oregon. The causes of the hard times
have been thoroughly discussed by the
best speakers who could be procured, and
the state has been thoroughly covered
with sound money and tariff literature
This work has been supplemented by the
very effective campaign made by United
States Senator John H. Mitchell and Gov
ernor Mcconnell Of Idaho and other silver
republicans, who have had great influence
IN prevailing upon republicans who favor
Tree coinage Of silver to remain with their
party Another potent factor has been the
hostile legislation of the present admins
tration and the well-known views of Mr.
Bryan against the protection of the wool
Snyr,A aof{
ern Oregon, for example, where wool grow
ing is important and where democratic ma
jorities are generally expected, will vote
solldly for Mckinley for tariff reasons
The Counties Considered.
"A few counties will give very large ma
jorities for Bryan. and will increase the
normal majority to be overcome by the
vote elsewhere. For example, in the Will
| 1amette Valley, which is in the western
part OF the state, in certain farming sec
tons populism and free silver have taken
deep root, and the vote cast against the
republican ticket in the state election held
last June will be exceeded by the vote for
Bryan. This is probably true, also but
| Tor different reasons, in two of the ex-
treme eastern counties of the state. But
| this is more than offset by the gains for
| Mckinley in other sections The growth
of the republican cause in some parts of
| the state has been simply astonishing. The
|
| Mckinley, and ut Is not to be denied that
| the Bryan cause has not gained since his
| first New York speech Every day which
| passes adds to- the confidence of the Nc
| Kin1ey supporters This Is not SO much a
matter of actual figures as it is in the en-
| couragement received from all quarters,
| and the very apparent fact that throughout
| the state it is how almost universally ad-
| mitted that Mckinley will not only carry
! Oregon by a safe majority, but will be
| the next President of the United States
| "Multnomah county, which includes the
| city of Portland, and is the most populous
| county of the state, is usually republican
i by from $500 to 5000 1t is probable that
| it will he carried for Mckinley by as much
as 1000. His plurality in the state, in
| cuding Multnomah county, it likely to
be about equal to what he has to his credit
| in Multnomah county. In other words the
| state outside Of that county will be neu.
| tral factor, the Mckinley counties about
! offsetting the Bryan counties. But as the
! Bryan forces are now retreating, and tho
I enthusiasm for the republican standard
there is still another four weeks of the
| campaign, it is not at all improbable tha'
the figures will far exceed this estimate
| Gov. Lord carried the state in 1892 by 6
| plurality of 15,0l8: Judge Bean, for SUI
| preme Judge, In 1896 by about 1900; it 1:
| manifest that the democrats and populfst:
combined cannot cast as great a vote IL
this election as they did separately IL
| either of those state elections. If theJ
fall 1900 under their combined vote in 1894
or 1900 under their combined vote in 1896
they will lose the state, even If the re
publican vote does not increase. Looking
at it in this way. If the silver republican,
who vote for Bryan Offset the Democrat
who will vote for Mckinley land it is no
! holf hot mill ha