The Saint Paul globe., 1896-12-21
THE GOLD COMES THIS WAY.
BALANCE OF 1922, 900 900 IN OUR
FAVOR FOR THE LAST FIVE
MONTHS OF '96.
CUBAN AFFAIRS A BEAR FACTOR.
Tend to Cause Weakness in Wall
Street-Henry CIews' Re-
view.

ly review of the financial situation
Henry Clews says:
Affairs In Wall street during the past week
have been what might be reasonably expected
at the close OF the year. There is the tenn
porary withdrawal Of attention from specula-
tion always incident to the preparations for
annual settlements and among infiuentlal
operators there is the usual December dis
position to encourage declines IN order TO
make E market favorable for buying prepar-
atory 10 January rise. Under these condi-
tions unfavorable influences have been made.
the most Of. The imputed murder Of Maceo,
the attention paid to the Cuban situation in
congress and the generally low earnings OF
the railroads have been used with some ef-
feet in the depression of prices, but also
with the result of creating considerably
over-sold condition of the market Tnere
was. however, no abatement of the funda-
mental strength Of prices and no cnange
from the expectation Of a higher range OF
values with the opening of the new year until
yesterday when the Cameron resolutions on
Cuban affairs being favorably passed upon
by the subcommittee of the senate commit
tee on foreign relations, there was lmmeoi-
ately a severe lurch in prices.
The position of foreign exchange attracts
more than usual attention, owing to the graft
flying condition of our foreign trade balance.
The official monthly statement OF imports and
exports reveals the surprising fact that for
the month of November the exports ex-
ceeded the imports lin both cases exclusive
of gold by $62 $50 coo. This is the more i'm
portant because it follows three other months
of extraordinary trade balances in our favor.
For the four months, August, September, Oc-
tober and November, the surplus OF mer-
chandse exports over merchandise imports
aggregates 1892, 100000, while for the like
months of 1885, the excess of exports was
only $24, 800 900. The curernt month also is
likely to show an important commercial bal
though
the rate shown for the last four months. 1t
is perhaps safe to estimate 1t at about
$50, OOO, ,0Oo That sum, added to the 1892
600 900 surplus of the last four months, would
make the merchandise balance for the final
five months Of the year about $222, coo, 000 This
has been already liquidated to some extent
items not included in the official trade state
ments. The imports of gold for the last
four months, less the exports, amount to ST.,
000, 900. The unspecifed items debit and
credit, including interest securities
held abroad, may be estimated at the average
net sum of about $12, 100000 per month; which,
for the five months we are considering, would
represent an Offset amounting to $50 900, 600.
We must also charge ourselves with the net
result of the securities movement, which will
not be estimated at over $25 900, 600 net against
us, including the large amounts returned i'm
following the election. Putting
together these three items Of offset-gold i'm
ports, miscellaneous minor movements and
the transactions in securitias-it would ap-
600, 600 for the last five months of the year
is offset by items the other side of the
account aggregating $l56 200, 600. On the basis
OF these items it may be estimated that the
foreign balance to our credit at the close
of the year would approximate $66 60G0,0 900.
This, however, takes no account of con-
not been sent forward to Europe in the
usual course, but are held here as virtually
a temporary loan to foreign money markets
payable on maturity Of the bills. The amount
pYchanOQ 10 ri 1v fi1,1o4 tod eof
from SIS, 5,O00, 900 to SIS 0000, 900, and may per-
haps be safely taken to amount to 500 000-
goo. Including this item the net creditor bal
ance payable to the United States at the
end of the year may be estimated at about
$S5, ,000. 900.
Financially. therefore, 1896 will close with
a highly satisfactory position of our foreign
relations. What may be the. course of affairs
beyond that date is, of course largely
matter of conjecture. We may expect some
considerable increase in our imports Of mer-
chandise as result OF the improved feeling
IN trade; but 1t is possible that the uncer-
taintes connected with tariff legislation may
mold that tendency in check for some months
to come. While the imports are increasing
the exports will naturally be declining both
In cotton and breadstuffs. There is, however
good sized visible supply of wheat, which
viii admit of considerable further exports
and at prices which, with the corn exports
Will make this an important source of ex-
change for the next two months. Ordinarily
the earlier months of the year are attended
probably more than average surplus Of
food products and ample cotton yet awaiting
export and creditor balance of $S5 600 GOO
carried over from 1896, 1t is not easy TO see
any probability of important exports Of gold
for the next two months. Indeed II is rath-
er question whether the situation does not
suggest probability that, before we have
10 make any shipments Of gold, we may have
some further imports. That must much de-
pend upon the comparative rates of interest
here and in Europe. A rise in the rate here,
cOmnarnn and
be very apt to bring gold this way. A rise
abroad, not followed by New York, might
POSSIBLY produce a renewal of local pur-
chases OF foreign bills, and might even cause
some shipments of gold to Europe. One fact
is to be kept sight of-that our recent inn
ports OF gold have affected London unfavor-
ably and Berlin quite severely Both the
Bank OF England and the Reichsbank may
be expected to keep their discount rate high
and use all other means in order to get back
some of the metal; but the situation here is
a stubborn one, and New York VIII be much
more willing to extend credit to these CEN
tiers than to let them have its gold one
9hlng is clear. however, that the present re-
latlons between London and Berlin on one
sade and New York on the other are not
favorable to our exporting any securities
For some time. therefore, the local stock
canoe" 1t is not unlikely that Germany
may take some So 600 600 Of gold from MS
next week. If so. 1t will be for a necessary
shipment by the Reichsbank to the Rank Of
RUSSIA, and IS therefore a wholly exceptional
operation. and will signify nothing as 10 any
general tendency
At the moment. the most sensitive element
IN tne stock market is the situation of affairs
IN CUBA. The feeling in Wall Street. as well
as in business circles generally is very
strongly against the United States commit
ting itself unnecessarily TO any serious COM
plications with Spain. The paramount senti-
ment is that congress viii not be serving the
pest interests of the country by plunging 1t
into war. Such struggle would not bring
DrcSFiRp or oiyo, -
substantial character, even If we got tha
pest OF 1t, which would Undoubtedly he the
case and Tor a powerful nation to get the
advantage of a weak one, under any circum-
slances, brings no glory. This country does
not desire to make Cubans American citi-
Zens. we don't want any of the hot t-blooded
race as citizens through conquest The Gu
pans are not. as race, fitted to coalesce
with our people. They are a great deal bet
ter adapted to remain by themselves and
work out their own independenca and dastiny
What Spain should do is to give the island
nome rule. under a liberal policy with the
option on the part of the Cubans of buying
sne Island at set price within. say, ten
or twenty years, payable by annual INSTALL
ments. This country. especially after the last
TOUR years of disaster and bad times wants
a continuation of peace for the next four
years at least. Besides, war with Spain
might in the end involve us with other
european nations. At any rate, they would
De likely to give aid and comfort to Spain
TO our great disadvantage during the strllg-
gle 1t must be remembered, too. that Spain.
after war with us, will be too poor to paw
an indemnity, so that compensation can be
nad from that source. Wherein, then can
this country gain any material benefit TO
compensate for years possibly of costly war
with Spain? This country's best interests lie
IN following George Washingtons parting
words: Avoid all entangling alliances" This
government IS {. republic. European govern
mems are the reverse, and In sIch a contest
would he secretly against us by natural inter-
ests ana instincts. France is a republic 1t
hanOieaOnnd hv INN r;aI
Jism and so csnnot be considered as we are as
being on q permanent republican balls. I'm
goer -sny circumstances, France would be con-
troiied by Russ.a in a war between this coun-
and and hat