Evening star., 1896-10-27
POLITICAL ESTIMATES
How the Party Leaders Are Able to Make
Their Forecasts.
Talks With Chairmen Babcock and
Faulkner on This interest
ing Subject.

Claims of political parties just preced-
irg a presidential election are generally
discounted by conservative people who aim
to come to an accurate conclusion about
probable majorittes. 1t Is because of this
fact that many persons are now ende lvor-
ing to analyze the estimates of both the
republican and democratic managers by
inquiring into the me ans for gathering in
formation possessed by each and to see
exactly the basis on which their respective
claims are based.
II was this question that Star reporter
put to both Representative Babcuck, chair
man Of the republican congressional conf
mittee. and Senator Faulkner, chairman of
the democratic congressional committee, to-
day.
Basis of Mr.. Dabcock's Predictions.
Our predictions" replied Mr.. Babcock,
ARE based on many reports from congress
sional districts. For instance, we have a
report from the nominee for Congress, from
the chairman of the state and county corr
mittees, and frequently from a large num-
Der of discerning republicans who have a
good opportunity to Judge of the condition
in each district These reports are inde-
pendent Of each other, and the writer's of
them do not know the nature Of other
ACPo1lo we ISCelNt covering the same field,
When large number Of reports are re-
ceived from district they are compared
and II they practically agree we feel that
we are safe In adopting the combined opIn-
ion from particular district. If they do
not agree we look further to discover the
true situation.
I'm the doubtful states of the middle
west, where the condition has been mixed
and Is uncertain on the surface we have
In the case of a number of states had polls
made in each voting district 1t is made
the duty of one man to ascertain the way
each voter will cast his ballot This Is far
from satisfactory very often, because while
70 per cent of the voters will freely ex-
press themselves. there is the % per cent
OF them who will not tell how they will
vote, and 1t is hard work to ascertain what
thsy propose to do at the polls. But it is
through these various sources cf reliab
information that we have come to the con-
ciuslons on which our prediction of a re-
publican victory in November is based. 1
have no doubt of their accuracy, and the
result of the election is about as clear to
me now as 1t will ha when the votes are
cast Mckinley will carry the country by
big majorities"
What Senator Faulkner Says.
Senator Faulkner did not care to discuss
the predictions he has made public any
further than he has done. Mr.. Faulkner
remarked that he was thoroughly con-
vinced Of the accuracy of the democratic
predictions that have emanated from his
Office, but thought there was no use of en-
tering upon a discussion of them daily.
He had made them after personally salts
flying himself on the true condition that
prevails throughout the country through
various sources of information and from
personal investigations which he had made
to satisfy himself about the way the farm
ers and workingmen of the country would
vote.
no nj ha inn mt Of INF
are the reports of club membership
throughout the country.
But SO far as Is known, the democratic
congressional committee has not employed
the method of polling doubtful states. pre-
cinct by precinct, but has relied more large
ly for its information on various leaders
with whom 1t has been in correspondence.