Evening star., 1896-10-23
MINNESOTA PREDICTIONS
The State and National Tickets Will Be Car
ried by the Republicans.
That Party VIII Elect Six Congress-
men and One District ia Doubt
ful-Mr. Lind's Error.
Special Correspondence Of The Evening Star.

Special Correspondence Of The Evening Star.
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn., October 20, 1896.
Minnesota will elect
The Mckinley electors by 20.0U0 plurality;
The republican state ticket, except the
governor, by 10000 plurality;
Gov. Clough, republican, by 5000 plu-
rality;
Republican Congressman in the first, sec
ond and fourth districts, by majorities
ranging from $500 to $500;
Republican Congressman in the third and
fifth districts by majorities of 1.5OO:
A republican Congressman in the sixth
district by majority of 500;
While in the seventh district the result is
close and uncertain.
The foregoing is an estimate on the re-
suit in Minnesota. based on information
gathered by an Evening Star correspon-
dent in a trip which reached the principal
towns In every district Of the state and
servatism, If at all, and is made with the
reservation that in case Of landslide the
republican Way-for which conditions are
favorable-all prophecies are off. The fig
ures, however. have the Endorsement of a
number Of the most careful political
prophets in the state.
Distribution Of the Estimates,
The estimate of 10000 plurality for Nc
Kinley distributes the majorities in the
congressional districts as follows: For Nc
kinley: First district, $500; second, 5000;
third. 1000; fourth. $500; fifth, 1900; sixth.
1000; total. 1900. For Bryan: Seventh
district. 1000. Net Mckinley majority,
10000.
The estimate on governor distributes the
1900; second. $500: fourth, 1900; sixth,
LOO; total, 10000. For Lind, third, 800:
fifth. 1000: seventh $500; total, 5000 Net
Clough majority. 5000.
Mr.. Lind's Errt,r.
The state ticket is weaker than the elec-
toral for the reason that many German
democrats will vote for Mckinley on prin-
ciple. but will rrtain their old party af-
filiations in state matters. This fact may
also make the legislative contest a close
one. but as the heavily republican sena.e e
holds over and as there is no senatorial
fight this year. the legislative contests are
OF less Importance than usual. Governor
Clough would undoubtedly have been beat
en- If MIR. Lind, the fusion nominee, had
pursued a prudent course. Lind was for
merly a republican. and served two terms
in Congress from the second Minnesota dis
trict. He possessed the confidence and re-
spect of the republicans of the state, and
if he had pushed his campaign on purely
state issues. without giving undue empha-
SIS to his apos!asy to silver. he could have
secured the entire anti-ClougE republican
vote. The administration was weak and
vulnerable, and there was a widespread
sentiment of disapproval among the re-
publican masses for the policy of what is
known as 1.-The state machine" But Mr.
Lind chose to make his campaign entirely
on the national issues. He has preached
the silver doctrine early and late, and has
indeed been the most powerful stumper in
its behalf in the state. He has consorted
with the popocrats constantly, and been a
consistent defender of Bryanism in all it,
phases. This error has driven from him
many anti-Clough republican votes which
would surely have gone to him OF state
issues alone. 1t has given the republican n
managers TIE opportunity to paint in SOM
Der colors the picture of capital refusing to
come to state that had a populist gov-
ernor. Thus it happens that within the
past two weeks Clough has been gaining
ard though many thousands CT votes weak
er than the electoral ticket, may yet pull
through.
The Change From silver.
But this is not the only change that has
taken place in the rapidly shifting politi-
cal Kaleidoscope. Up to the last of August
the state was lost to gold. Up to that
time the enthusiasm of the campaign was
largely with the silver people AS soon as
the republicans got their campaign fairly
Under way, however, the tide began to
turn. In the sixth district and in the third
the ground has almost slipped from be-
HedtH the leet u t1e silver people without
their realizing it. So in the fifth or Mia
neapolis district. The silver men are bas-
ing their claims of carrying the state on
estimates a month or six weeks old. No
estimates of that age are of much value
In this shifty campaign. 1t is noteworthy
that the gold managers are on the offensive
everywhere: they are pushing the fight all
along the line, while only in the fifth and
seventh districts and parts of the fourth are
the silver men possessed of anything like
confidence. AS after of cold fact. the
white metal leaders do not expect to carry
Minnesota. They are counting on electing
governor, lower house in the legisla-
ture and Congressman in the third, fifth.
sixth and seventh districts. Beyond these
achievements their expectations do not ex-
tend. The registration of voters, particu-
larly in the cities, has been simply enor-
nous. and this fact is portentous for the
silver men. The largest increases are in
the republican precincts. In 1894, the land
slide year. there were 10000 voters in Min
neapolis alone. who did not exercise their
franchise. Most Of these will vote this
year, and the gold men confidently count
on securing the lions share of the in
crease III the vote.