The news & observer. [volume] (Raleigh, N.C.) 1894-current, 1896-10-25
CY WATSON'S VOTE
He Will Receive a Plurality OF
1888 Over Russell.
HIS VOTE WILL BE 1856, $50
Will Exceed Vote For Guthrie
and Russell by $3.50.
GuTHRlE's VOTE WILL BE 27.e4o
A Careful and Conservative Analysis of
the Election Tables of 1888 nd
1892 With Notifications Called
For Bv Present Conditions.

1892 With Notifications Called
For By Present Conditions.
We print below a statement of the
outlook in the coming election, pre-
pared by gentleman who has given
careful and long study to the election
figures. and whose position entities
his views to the greatest weight. lie
seldom ever makes predictions, and
never unless he presents the facts
that show upon what his predictions
rest. The predictions and figures be-
low show thorough familiarity with
the political statistics of the State, and
the deductions drawn from the figures
will be regarded as eminetly conserva-
tive bv those who have made a careful
examination of the vote in North Car
olina.
The campaign has progressed suth-
GENTLY far TO enable us to make a fair
ly accurate forecast of the result. That
Bryan will carry the State by an over
whelming majority, is conceded by all
intelligent observers. The increased
registration, particularly in Democrat
ic counties, discloses the fact that we
can safely count upon full Demo
cratic vote, something we have not had
since 1888. Very considerable gains
will be made from the Populists for
the entire State ticket. Gains are like
wise reported from silver Republicans.
The only thing that can bring about
Republican success will be the failure
of Democrats to vote, and the success
ful vote by Republicans of illegal regis
tered negroes The following figures,
based on former votes, make these
facts apparent:
In 1892 the vote for Governor Carr
was 1859. If we add to this the nat
ural increase of 6 per cent, which is
the lowest percentage of one Presi-
Dental year over another in twelve
years, we have S,131, which, added to,
Governor CaGr's vote, makes 143,650.
There is no doubt that 5000 men who
voted for Weaver in 1892 will vote for
Watson this year; at least 1000 silver
Republicans will do likewise, which,
added to the former figures, makes a
total Democratic vote of 150,650. The
total vote of the State in 1888 was
282, 6S6; in 1892 there was 27S, 043; net
loss of per cent, whereas there
should have been a gain of per cent.
This discloses the fact that at least
$4,000 voters did not vote in 1892. The
exodus principally took place between
these dates during which time some
10000 negro voters left the State. Many
Democrats in 1892 were dissatisfied
with the nomination of Mr.. Cleveland,
and while not willing to leave the par
ty, staid at home. So it is fair to as
sumo that one-half of the remaining
stay at-home vote, amounting to
something like 5000, were Democrats,
who will vote in this election. If this
be added TO the former ascertained
vote, we have as the conservatiVely es-
minated Democratic vote for this year
1860
In 1892 the Republicans cast for Fur
ches 94,684, and for Harrison 100,34
If we take the larger vote and add to
it per cent, as the natural increase,
we have 1885, 1862. from which we should
deduct 1000 silver Republicans who
have left the party, which leaves
104, 1862. In 1892 larger number of
negroes voted the Populist ticket.
They viii vote the Republican ticket
this year. 1t is estimated that they
NUMBER l0,UUU. winch, du0eu TO the
104,36 makes a total vote which Rus
sell ought to expect an this State of
1882. To this must be added 5000
stay-at-home votes, which would make
total vote of 1875, 1862. This calculation
assures Watson a plurality over Rus
sell of 31,288. According to these fig
ures the Populist vote should be as fol-
lows: For Exum in 1892, 47,840 1--WE
take Exum's vote because it is the
largest, although Weaver only received
44,736), from which must be deducted
5000 Populists who will vote the Dem
ocratic ticket this year, and the $4,000
negroes, who viii vote Republican.
This means a balance of q, $40, which
should be Major Guthrie's vote. If Maj.
Guthrie's vote is added to Russell's vote
we have total ofs153,2 02, which repre-
eents the maximum vote which can
be polled for the fusion candidates on
the State ticket. This vote is $3.50 less
than the estimated Democratic vote.
No one who is acquainted with the
politics of this State now, will claim
that the fusion State ticket will re-
ceive a total combined vote of the Re-
publicans and Populists. Every vote
less than this combined vote will add
to the Democratic majority.
THE PARITY OF THE METALS.