Evening star., 1896-10-31

Mckinley Mny Have - Plurality Of
From 1000 to 10000 There.

From 1000 to 10000 There.
Correspondence of The Evening Star.
MEMPHIS, October %, 1896.
Leading politicians here declare that
Bryan's flying trip through Tennessee did
more harm than good. In this district his
Interference in the congressional contest
has cost him few thousand votes. He
is the only prominent free silver man who
has been through the state. whereas the
sound money democrats have had Messrs.
Cochran, Fellows and others. in addition to
able home talent The free silver cause
has been badly managed. but the leaders
contend that it is all right ana that the
state is sure to go for Bryan. When asked
for specifications, they decline to give any:
and the Star correspondent Is more than
ever inclined to think that Tennessee will
be a surprise to the country. 1t Is a fact
not surmise, that the chairman Of the
state democratic committee Is thoroughly
alarmed over the situation, and that he Is
now calling on sound money democrats to
help out the democratic nominee and the
Chicago candidates.
The meeting at the Auditorium Monday
night, at which Bourke Cochran spoke. was
enough to frighten the Bryanites. 1t was
the greatest political meeting ever held in
Memphis. and the distinguished New York
orator had much larger audience than
had Bryan or an open lot In the suburbs
1t was moreover meeting almost entirely
in sympathy with the speaker. Col. Fellows
was present. after having made a number
of speeches in Tennessee and he gave 1t as
the result Of his observation throughout
the state that Bryan would lose the cleo
toral vote Of Tennessee
Examining the state by districts it will
be found that there is little encouragement
for the democrats in the outlook.
The first district will give Mckinley a
plurality Of 10000 over Bryan About this
there will be no dispute.
The second district ought to give him
of loo CT 10 on @
to present reasons for it. In the August
election for judges Of the chancery court
of appeals, the republicans In this dis
trict gave q majority of about 1900 for
test of two years ago there were two re-
publican candidates who polled a vote of
about 10000, there being no democrat In
the race at all. A plurality Of 15.OOO Is
therefore a moderate and safe estimate.
In the third district in the August cleo
tion the democrats had about 500 votes
the better of the republicans. but two
years ago the latter elected their Congress-
man by a plurality of 3,O72. There are
great many democrats in Chattanooga who
are going to vote for Mckinley. and the
republican plurality Of two years ago is apt
to be duplicated. The probabilities are that
Mckinley will carry the third district by
5000 plurality.
Two years ago, in the fourth district the
democrats elected a Congressman by
plurality of / 1888: this year their plurality
will probably reach $500.
In the fifth district the democratic plural-
ity in 1894 was 1897. 1t will be 1000 this
year.
In the sixth district Joe Washington,
sound money democrat, was elected two
years ago by plurality of G. 436. This year
the chances are about even. .
In the seventh district the democrats will
probably increase their normal plurality of
200 up to 5000.
In the eighth district. now representedIby
republican, who had a plurality of s21.
the democrats will probably show up 1,O0O
stronger than the republicans.
In the ninth the democrats had 2.611 the
better of the populists and republicans two
years ago, but, as the democratic nominee
this year is just out of the ranks of popu-
lism, and the republicans and populists
have fused in this district, the democrats
will just about maintain their lead. and
will probably have a majority of 2,5OO..-
In the tenth district. where the sound
money men have a club now Of over 5000
members. Bryan and Mckinley will run a
neck-and-neck race, with the chances that
Bryan will carry it by 1000 plurality.
By grouping these estimates in tabular
FORM the following result Is reached: