New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1896-05-22
Az ERRTNG DEPARTMENT.

The Agricultural Department IL itself largely
RESPONSIBLE II it's crop estimates and reports
command no confidence and cause nothing hut
confusion The exposure by The Financial
Chronicle" last November ~ It's untrtisi-
worthy and absurdly contradictory figures about
cotton Was so complete that one might have
SUPPOSED practical business men would not
again be caught basing anything more impor-
tant than the dipping Of cent on It's subsequent
estimates until its methods had been radically
changed Events have st!ll further demon
stratcd The folly Of H. estimates. ON the l9th
Of October The Financial Chronicle which
rarely undertakes 10 predict anything. published
The results OF its own investigation regarding
the probable decrease In yield stating That
the crop Of last fall could NOT in any case fall
below 7.OOO.oO bales" About month later
the department with It's great expenditure OF
public money and It's army OF correspondents
printed it's estimate. which. applied to It's own
laics, statement of acreage. showed Yield OF
G.,4s9l6 bales But on Saturday Nay o. with
nearly four months " the crop year remaining,
600 OpO bales had already come into sight and
long ago all the people who We're In November
rhlculously quoting the department a. author
lty Tor estimates ~ 65oo,O00 or less, have aban
doncd the idea that the yield will bc smaller
than The Financial Chronicle" named rs the
minimum last October.
In spite ~ all this report OF the same de-
p1rtmcni l. now made The basis Of more spocu-
laiion. and. rs usual. Of more Misrepresentation
Tho department now estimates that the acreage
planted la cotton this year i l4.S per cent
larger than 1t was last year Nobody seems To
notice a very suggestive fact that the same de-
parimcnt made LAST years acreage exactly AS
per cent less than that OF the year before. But
the people whose business II Is To disort every
statement for speculative uses nave rushed for
ward at once with the conclusion that an in.
crease Of only AS per cent last years yield
would be- many bales.
Surprising that by some accident the depart
mcnt Is right. and the acreage Is 10 be us per
cent greater than last year. II was then accord
Ing to the department. 81 per cent. and must
therefore be- 01S per cent Of the acreage
of 1884, or about > per cent less than the area
which actually produced in that year over TO-,
600. 900 bales Of ordinary weight. That was a
good year true and 1880 bad year
Whether the season this year will be rs favor
able rs that Of 1884. or as unflvOrabc as that
of 1890. whether the yield per acre will be 4
of Il bale H. the department made it in 1894 or
rs small as BOO OF bale. as II must have been
last year If the department acreage returns were
correct nobody can possibly say. II is not
given even tn the Department OF Agriculture TO
predict the weather three months ahead All
that anybody can say now Is that the acreage. rs
reported by the department, would with good
weather raise crop of 9,1W,0tW bales. or with
weather as bad a. that of last YER might raise
no more than S2OOOOO bales
For people who are not trying 10 manufacture
speculative arguments. however. II Is much more
important 10 observe that the departments csti
mates Of acreage are entitled 10 no confidence
whatever Whether they look one way or the
other. the main fact Is that nobody ought to
venture IA cent on account of them. Within
about month the careful statement Of acreage
published annually by THE Financial Chron-
icle' will appear. which has been for long
time more closely verified by actual results than
estimates from any other source. official or I'M
official, and ii would be good sense for practical
people to possess their souls in patience until
they have some such Trustworthy information
1t VIII be extremely lucky for the department
If for once its returns are found not widely out
Of the way.
--
mot hAr hat oh Of, of ia