The Houston daily post. [volume] (Houston, Tex.) 1886-1903, 1896-01-13
COTTON SUPPLY AND CONSUMPTION

Dear Sir:
New Orleans. January 4.--Now that the
political aspect begins to look more peace
full. cotton on its merits again attracts
attention.. and 1t may interest our friends
to calculate the probable quantity required
for American consumption, and conse-
qucntly how much can be spared for Eu-
rope out OF this years crop
Firmly. believing, as do, in a crop not
exceeding 6,500000, ! shall base my calcu-
latiofis on that figure.
The actual consumption OF the North
ern and Southern mills, Canada and Mex
leo last year was 100000 bales or 3d.
900 bales per week. They began the
year with a stock OF 100000 bales. They
took during the wear 3,100.O00, and they
consumed 100000, so they began this
year with n stock of 100000 bales. Their
trade is better and consumption larger
than last year by Mt least 5000 per week,
so that we may safely estimate their
consumption at 81 600 bales per week.
or. say. 3,l50,0O0 bales for the year, II no
collapse takes place.
But If they are willing to go into next
year quite bare Of stock, they can con
sumo 3.l50,oOO bales and yet take out
of this crop only 2,75O.0OO bales, and this
if trade in America continues fairly
good and mills continue running, is tho
very leas: quantity they can take.
The stock left over from last crop at
Onlted states ports ana interior counted
towns was 100000 bales and II the crop
is ESQ 600 there are 6S00.0 900 bales to ais
pose of. If American spinncrs take 2lfN,
and IL the United States ports and interior
towns carry over only 1900 bales, against
3o0,O 600 last year, there would remain for
Europe out of this crop 900 bales.
| against actual last year 6G6S. 900 bales. AS
regards European consumption OF Ameri
| can, which last year reached Ill 500 bales
per week. or 100000 for the year, as in
creased supplies from other countries may
be expected, from better crops and better
| prices. II will be reasonable to estimate
| this years European consumption OF
American at 5000 bales per week. or x
| 100 900 for the year. or g. SD 900 for tho thir-
ty-nine weeks from January to October
| /. This IL very much below Mr.. Ellsons
| current estimate, but ] am anxious 10
| adopt the most conserve tive estimates
which current facts will Justify: nor do |
give this estimate as being at all possible
to be reached, because the cotton to sup
ply IT viii not be available, as is apparent
from the following statement thousands
omitted)
Total supply for Europe out OF TINS
crop. 1886. 1900; actual last year. l@i-95.
G633. Actual exports to Europe to january
g. ls9j-96. 222i; actual last year. 1919, 1902.
| Probable exports hereafter, 1885. 1876;
actual last year 1885. 3O6l. European
port stock and afloat, january 4. lsaj-a6.
2O3s; actual last year. 1S9i-95, 1868. Total
European supply of American for thirty
nine weeks, 1866, 37li; against last year.
ls94-95. $3.50. Estimating consumption
thirty-nine weeks at 9S per week. 1896,
1922, actual last year, ls9i-95, 43is. Shows
n deficit Ito be used out of mill stock
1896. 1851 showing surplus, 1896. 1882.
Thus. assuming American consumption
to be only 250.OOO bales over last year, and
American mills to go into next year quite