The herald., 1896-03-20
HENRY CLEWS' LETTER

New YORK, March 4, 1896.
In Wall street there ia little change in
the tone and volume of business. In in
vestment securities the movement is
healthy, but in the speculative list trans
actions are titful and governed by the
changing tactics of professional operat-
ors. The general situation remains sound
as to undertone, but languid as to oper-
atoms.
The attitude of the bear element in spec
ulation is significant. There ia no persist
ency in their operations. They sell eau
tiously and cover upon small profits.
which shows lack of confidence in their
position. On the other hand, the bulls
are inactive. They have full confidence
in the general situation and in the pros
poets of an ultimately higher market, but
are held back by a sort of hesitation
which is not easily accounted for. Prudent
operators are always slow to undertake
large transactions in the absence of dis
tiuctly speculative spirit. The larger con-
ditions may warrant confidence and the
drift may be plainly in the direction of
higher values; but they hesitate to UNDER
take campaign until there is distinct
'.outside" feeling that a boom is at hand.
That is the attitude of the larger street
holders of stocks at the present moment.
This hesitation is undoubtedly encour-
aged by business conditions which are
largely special to this city. In most trades
here there is considerable complaint of
dullness and more or less show of pessi-
misiic spirit. Merchants sales are not
prcportioned to their stocks, and buyers
sec that something is the matter among
the distributors, and are therefore disposed
to pursue hand-to-mouth policy of buying.
All this is in contrast to the conditions and
tie feeling existing in the interior. From
the large western cities come accounts
of satisfactory state OF busines SIS, and
Chicago reports a healthy activity. So, at
the south. conditions appear to be unusu-
ally healthy: the steamships and railroads
connecting with that section are having a
very satisfactory traffic, and the large in
creases in the earnings of the western
roads show that, in that section also, there
is really healthy movement of merchan-
disc. In brief, there can be no question
that the condition OF general trade is far
more satisfactory thrcush out the south and
west than at this center. This contrast
with New York is very singular, and needs
some explanation. Why is it that this city
is moody and complaining. while the sec.
tons from which it draws it's trade are
prosperous and satisfied? 1t is not to be
denied that New York is subject to a con-
staDtly increasing competition from the
western cen,ers for the distributing
trade. Nor is there any doubt that cities
like Chicago and ST. Louis are rapidly
extending their hold upon that branch of
business. The Increase of population
would in some measure account for that
increase: but does that factor explain suf-
ticienyly? 1t is doubtful. New England
is now undoubtedly sending direct to the
| west large quantities of manufactures
which formerly were distributed through
New York agents. Such drift is not cal
culated to create cheerful tone at this
| center. Equally, Our trade with certain
sections Of lhe south is being attacked by
the active distributing houses of the west;
SO that. to some extent, we are meeting
with new competition, II not losing BUSH
ness, in that direction. Then it is to be
remembered that New York occupies po-
stion OF peculiar responsibility as an inter-
mediary between the industrial interest
and the jobbing interest of the country. A
very large amount of capital is employed
i'll rendering that kind of service; and
| in the performance of the serv-
| ice there is some considerable
| risk. arising from advances upon goods,
| loans to manufacturers and investments
in mills to which they have become un-
willingly committed LIZ New England
manufacturers are willing to sell direct 10
western jobbers and thereby save the cost
| of New Fork Intermediates, SO much the
| worse for the great t1rst.hands trade of
| this city. Moreover, this particular in
terest is exposed TO much of the risk at
tending a lack of due adjustment between
the production of certain large industries
and the demand for consumption. There
have been threatening arrangements in
that relation. For years past, the improve
Inents III mechanical power and i'll work
! ing machinery have been carrying this
country, as we'll as others, towards pro-
! duction in excess OF the possibilities of cur
rent consumption. There was check to
| that process in the great panic of 1898.
which served as an offset to that crisis of
no small value. But the machinery we
| then had we have still. Its owners are
| anxious to keep it employed; and upon