Mexico weekly ledger., 1896-01-02
W. G. PRESS & co..
Grain and Provision Commission Merchants,
2 and Z Sherman ST.. Chicago.

In their special market letter say:
The recent wal scare, which for a few
days enabled professional beats to ON
troll the stock market. eXerted but little
influence in wheat, there being no OPP
portunity for foreigners to demoraiiZe
the market by free selling. In fact.
their operations We're confined to quite
liberal purchases at the SeabOard. on
the moderate break. which VAS due to
the unsettled stock market. and the
unloading of several fair-SiZed lines
held for Wall street operators. The
subsistence OF the scare haS left the
market nee ~ to immediate supply
and demand influences. and traders are
according them mOre than ordinary
consideration; chiefly OH account Of
the continued liberal increase in the
visible supply. which suggests that
there has been some error in crop eSti-
mates. We have steadily maintained.
since the crop was assured. that the
trade would ultimately discover that
all estimates made upon the basis of
II bi per acre us representing Il full
average crop, were erroneous. That
the question is becoming one of vital
interest to dealers is evidenced by IA re-
view of the situation by BvudStfpet'S,
which says: "AS the year progresses,
the impression continues to grow, SO
far as the wheat crop i'll the United
undereStimated. The official figures
as to the size of the crop, or the inter
pretations of earlier official wheat crop
reports, placed the total probable put
turn at about $50. 600 200 bu. At the
present time trade estimates in very
few, if any, instances put the probable
aggregate yield ut less than $50, 900. 900
bu-aGd the end is probably not yet, in
the matter of revised figures. This, in
view OF comparatively moderate eX-
ports of wheat and flour thus far dur
ing the cereal year, continues to per-
petuate the dominance of bear in
fiuences in the worlds wheat markets.
Some of II optimistic foreign friends
are even now incliner to think the
wheat crop here may amount to 49,
000, 600 bu, as against $40 900. 900 bu last
year. Canada ONE Out with al eSti-
mated increase of about 0,000, 600 bu.
and Argentine is now expected to show
so 1000, 600 bu, although only a month or
two ago 90, 000, 900 blu was accounted Il
high estimate, the output last year hav-
ing been rather under 80, 900 600 bu.
As against this, however, II is beC0n1-
ing probable that Australia is likely to
be an importer rather than an exporter
of wheat. In fact. she has already be-
gun to import wheat. + r = = The
worlds available stocks of wheat, those
in sight, on land and afloat, are not
smaller this year than they were last,
Notwithstanding the heavy decline in
production. Either the invisible sup
plies must be smaller than customary
except in Russia, of course, which are
believed to be large), or there is likely
TO be, as Is generally the case, more
than enough to go around Quite
certain is 1t, however, that lS95-1S96
is likely to eat well into the worlds
old and new stocks of wheat, and that
the following cereal year. at least, NAV
witness Il considerable price stimulus
TO the cultivation of the cereal" While
| we belieyethe crop of the United States
has been underestimate. we also be-
fieye that unless the crops of the great
wheat producing countries of the world
for 1894 are unusually abundant, that
reserves will become low enough to en-
able American farmers to secure better
average prices than have been obtain
able for several years. and that as
as Russian supplies fall off, and our WIS.,
IbiV lC1tACo ITO uldAillull, IDaE Tile
fluctuations in price will be marked by
higher quotations on each upward
wave. In the meantime conditions
may force lower quotations, which.
however, will present opportunities for
frequent moderate scalps. The recent
eopious rains have been beneficial 10
the growing crop over large areas. and
but little bull news can be cleaned from
crop advices until the weather becomes
cold enough to cause alarm.
+ and Oats continue ~lifeless, and
whlie the latter present unusua leppor-
tunities for q legitimate long time ven
ture, the pressure of offerings and the
speculative stagnation may, in the near
future, enable traders disposed to en-
gage In such an operation to secure
futures on somewhat better terms. Our
private adyices may interest invest.
ment dealers.