Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1896-10-19
A Feeling Of Confidence Among Of
foials as to Their Condition.
NO INDICATIONS OF 4 RAID ON GOLD
Still Running Behindhand in the
Matter of Receipts.
MR.. CARLISLE'S REPORT

closing weeks Of the political campaign
Is one Of confidence that the storm which
has been surging around the ship Of state
will be weathered without serious disas-
ter. The gold reserve still stands So, OK. 600
above the conventional limit named in the
law Of 1882, and there are no indications
Of any serious raid for the purpose Of
boarding. There Is no surprise felt that
the New York banks and exchange houses
which have been importing gelc are keep
ing a close hold upon It, pending q def
mite decision whether the country Is to
adhere to the gold standard or take the
plunge to the silver basis. 1t IN believed
that If the result is in favor Of the gold
standard, there will be q small avalanche
of gold at the New York subtreasury with
in the fortnight after the result of the
election is known. 1t Is understood here
that the banks and importing houses are
loaded UP with gold to an extent which
would be inconvenient II they did not feel
that 1t was the safest properly to hold at
the present time. The moment the posi-
bility Of q silver victory Is at an end, 1t Is
expected there will be q disposition to ex-
change this gold for treasury notes and
gold certificates, If the issue Of the lat
ter is resumed. About $RO, CO., 90 In gold
has been imported since the present move
ment began in September. The treasury
has not received more than half Of this.
but large portion of the remainder is
likely to be offered at the New York SUBJ
treasury If the bankers are satisfied of
the security Of the metallic standard. 1t
Is believed that the disposition of foreign
capital to resume investment in this coun-
try will swell the golden tide, and that the
year will show heavier gold importations
than any year since those which imme-
diately followed the resumption of specie
payments.
The Only Cloud.
T1o
swelling gold reserve and large supplies
of foreign capital, according to treasury
officials. is the possibility that the return.
of business activity would raise prices,
arrest expectations and destroy the bal
ance of trade in favor Of the United States.
This possibility is being commented upon
which predict that the gold tide will again
turn away from the United States hut
they seem to overlook the influence of the
entry OF new capital, which would permit
an unfavOrable trade balance without re-
quiring gold exports. The republicans, who
have insisted all along that the Cleveland
administration was responsible for existing
conditions. and that 1t only needed the
election of a protectionist President 70 re-
store confidence and prosperity, will be
able to Ioint to seeming verification Of
their theory If the gold reserve begins to
pile up Immediately after the election in
phe hiduiiCI Is HO~ tuOuRnC pTOD9Dle
Sound money democrats declare that the
result will be due to the ending of the silver
agitation. and the threats Of carrying the
country to silver basis, which were in
man law. but the protectionists are not
likely to accept this view of the case.
Treasury Running Behindhand.
The treasury is still running behind at an
appalling rate in its current receipts and
1t is believed by many that this will re.
quire an extra session of Congress, in spite
of the restoration of the gold reserve. Sup
porters of the administration declare that.
the existing situation confirms the argu-
ment they made several weeks ago that the
deficit Is not responsible for the export OF
gold, and that redundant revenue would
affect the gold supply only Indirectly. The
past month or more has shown q deficit
growing at a more rapid rate than in 1906
while the gold reserve has climbed steadily
upward, until arrested at its present point
by the disposition Of the banks to retain
their gold until after the election. The de.
ficit thus far for the present fiscal year,
has been $50, O44, 40, The receipts having
been only sa3. 262, 800, and the expenditures
$125. 3O7 .675. The deficit on October II. 1898.
was $40 1862. 1O1. and twice as much had
teen paid on the monthly pension charges
last year as has been paid this year dur
ing October. Allowance for this difference
would make the real excess in the deficit
more than $4,000, coo in three and a Ealf
months, and would Indicate q deficit OF
$500 900 for the year. An Increase of re-.
ceipts is expected, however, after the cleo.
lions, as well as an increase in the gold
reserve. Customs receipts have declined
TO a minimum Of late, and have been only
81, 9O4, 446 since the beginning of the fiscal
year. Internal revenue receipts for the
same period have been 1851 jS4, and mis-
cellaneous receipts. s6.O17 ,1J9 The interna,
revenue receipts may show improvement
almost at once. after the decision of the
country Is made regarding the metallic
standard. 1t Is not expected that customs
receipts will increase so promptly, because
OF the time required for sending orders
abroad. filling them there and returning
the goods to the United States. 1t is be-
lieved, however. that both sources Of re.
ceipts will show a marked Improvement bv
midwinter.
An extra session Of Congress is antici-
pated, without much regard to the state
OF the receipts. The republicans are sc
thoroughly committed to the policy of tarif1
duties sufficiently high to supply the neces-
ssry revenues that 1t Is not thought
that they will repeat the mistake of 1890
of waiting until the eve Of the new con.
gressional elections before putting a tariff
bill on the statute books. Their chances of
being able to enact symmetrical high
tariff measure will increase in the ratio OF
the republican gains in the election of
United States Senators.
Secretary Cuflisle's Report.
Secretary OdTllSi6 mas not yet begun the
preparation Of his annual report, which is
likely to derive its character to some ex-
tent from the result Of the election. A de-
cision in favor Of the silver standard would
probably compel Mr.. Carlisle in his report
to explain the circumstances attending the
suspension of gold payments. for hardly
any one of the treasury officials believes
that the redemption of legal tender notes
in gold could be continued more than q
month after a silver triumph without ex-
the gold reserve.
Secretary Carlisle may be governed in
some measure also by the result Of the elec-
tons in his recommendations regarding the
revenue. He has not yet considered in de-
tail either Of the several plans which have
been suggested for supplying revenue with
out general revision of the tariff Three
separate plans which have been suggested
for swelling the revenue are the levy of a
specific duty on tea and coffee, the restora-
ton Of a specific duty on sugar and the in
crease of the tax on beer. Assistant Secre-
tary Hamlin and other supporters of rev.
enue tariff favor the duty on tea and cof-
Zee, because 1t ts in line with the revenue
tariff policy. A South Carolina tea grower
appeared before the ways and means COM
mittee at the last session, asking q duty
upon tea as measure of protection but he
did not succeed In overthrowing the tradf-
tfonal attitude Of opposition Of the republi-
can members toward a duty on these ar
ticles The change in the sugar duty from
the ad valorem to the specific form might