Evening star., 1896-10-29
Republican View of Bryan's Chicago
Campaign.
THEY CONCEDE THAT BE HAS GAINED
Reticent Voters the Ones Who VIII
Decide the Elections.
RELIABILITY OF REPORTS


cans do not think that Bryan's campaign
| ing here has seriously endangered the state
/ Of Illinois. Conservative republicans saw
that he has probably made a gain of 5000
votes in Chicago; some republicans place
the figure higher.
The men who will not let any one know
how they are going 20 vote are going to
turn this election. This mysterious vote
| grows more mysterious the closer you
| get down to it. There are certain things
that no amount of effort on the part of
either national committee can discover
After the closest sort of canvass and
when everything is figured up there is an
awful lot that has got to be taken on
faith
| well tried rule is that the underlined
and intangible something that is counted
! on to make the result different from what
surface indications indicate never turns
up.
Confidence of the Republicans.
The tests which are usually reliable in
politics indicate plainly enough to the re-
publicans that Mckinley is going to be
| elected. They indicate, too, that IL he is
elected, 1t is likely to be by large ma
| 5ority in the electoral college, for the rea-
| son that IL their figuring is correct on any
| of the so-called doubtful states II ap-
| plies about as well to ell the rest. Men
who are in the habit Of calculating chances
| find that on the average surface indica-
| tions are a good criterion. 1t is on ac-
count of this that the odds in betting are
heavily on. Mckinley.
The confidence of the republican commit
| tee is based their faith in the reports
made to them by the men they have em-
| Moved i'm various localities The accurasy
| Of these reports is insisted on by those
| who make them, and, of course that is
what the committee is bound to rely on.
| If these reports are approximately accu-
| rate Mckinley will have more than enough
votes to elect him
| Something depends upon the system
| adopted in making the canvass; whether
it is made on general belief or whether
men are actually SPOTTED and tagged. On
| this point the committee gets a satisfac-
| tory answer Their organization is arranged
| like block house, every block fitting in
| its place. They go at the work, they say,
| Ike taking city directory. That being
the case. the only question is whether the
| voters tell the canvassers the truth, and
| whether the canvassers make accurate re-
| ports Of what they learn Here you come
to the field of speculation. The man who
L
favor OF there being no widespread decep-
tion and fraud. This is the republican side
of the case and on it they calculate that
they will carry Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Ohio
and Minnesota, with the chances favorable
to them in Michigan. This covers the
| doubtful territory.
Not Wearing Their Colors.
Looking for weakness in this line of
| reasoning, it is found that the republican
estimate does not admit that there are
| men enrolled in Mckinley clubs or declaring
| themselves for Mckinley who do not intend
| to vote for him. In this they are abso-
| lrtely mistaken. 1t is certain that there are
| some men playing this game of deception;
| it is uncertain how many there are. The
| fact that person will run on a few cases
Of this sort without especially looking for
| them seems to warrant the assumption
that they are not actually scarce The men
| who are doing this, whatever their number
may be, appear to be generally republicans
| Who intend to desert their party, who in
the absence Of any assertion to the con-
| trary would be assumed to be Mckinley
| voters. The thing may not be very ex-
| tensiye, but some allowance must be made
for it.
Agents of the Committee.
No man can know until after the election
| how reliable the men in the employ of the
committee are. II is evident that among
| the small fry there is a temptation to
| exaggerate in order to give themselves i'm
portance and to put a greater value on
their work. Men subject to this temptation
are liable to make gloomy reports early in
the campaign and to make claim of great
1 ofyc .fo of IL
| perienced man al the head of the committee
| will make allowances for this.
| There may be another class who are
| willfully deceivng the committee because
| their sympathies are on the other side,
| though they are tempted by the pay for
| their work to enter into the republican
| service. One case of this sort has come 10
| my knowledge. 1t may be the only grass
| hopper on the farm that / caught hut il
| has come to my knowledge that one man
who is making very favorable reports TO
| the committee and getting paid for his
| services is actually working for the cleo
| ton of Bryan, and his reports are utterly
| unreliable. He may be the only one of that
sort. This does not utterly discredit the re-
| publican canvass, but 1t suggests situa-
| ton which modifies estimates.
| Mr.. Hanna is probably shrewd enough to
| nave discounted tnlS IN MS CALCULATIONS.
] The republican committee does not seem to
| understand nor get in touch with the rag
| tag and bob-tail." The seedy men all seem
to be for Bryan.
The Democratic Calculation.
The democratic calculation is made on an
| entirely different theory, and is utterly
| lacking In mathematical precision. Two
things at the outset claimed and grant,
| ed: First, that the republicans have by far
| the better Observation-Disclosures So
second, that whatever support Bryan has
| is most intensely enthusiastic.
Another thing that is undoubtedly true,
| and should be granted, is that Bryan, as a
general thing, has gained, not lost ground,
| as the campaign has progressed. If he is
| be eaten on the Sd of November then he
| would have been much more emphatically
defeated at an earlier date The demo-
/ cratic committee is undoubtedly just as
| confident as are the members of the repub-
lie an committee. There Is no deception
y about that. 1t simply shows difference