The evening times., 1896-10-31

Chicago, H., Oct. 31.-The folio wing
final statement from the Populist SIDE as
to election day probabilities and eXpecta-
uons throughout the country was gwen
last night to the United Associated Presses
byChaIrman W asbb burn. of the Chicago head
quarters:
'.In view of the fact that the people are
anxious TO know what combinations oi
States are liable to win, i lave grouped
together several, any group OF which is
liable To be the correct one on election
day. II is conceded that the Democratic
gold detection viii be offset by the silver
Republicans, which leaves the normal con
ditiuns OF the two parties the same.
Then aGu Ia the DemoCratic vote the wv"
millions of Populist votes and it is apparent
that Bryan must win. Fortunately the
Popuiist vote is largest in States, where II
is most needed, ana while Bryan cannot win
without 1t. he is sure TO win with 1t, and
will get the full Populist vote.
GROUPED AS BRYAN STATES.
.'In amalyZing the vote of the country i
have grouped as Bryan States the agricui-
turaI and mining States, where the gold
Democratic detection and floating vote ~
smallest, and where the success of the
ticket depends on the farmers, who have
been educated on the silver question through
schoolhouse and alliance meetings. and who
would feeIinsulted if Offered Il price for their
vote,ur werc cocrCed in any manner. There
fore it is conceded that the thirty-onc
States west of the Mississippi and south OF
the Ohio rivers, representing 2I2 electoral
votes. or eighteen more than needed, are
the States which Bryan is most likely 10
carry, and the States which are compara.
lively sure for Mckinley are the New Eng
land States together with New Jersey ana
Pennsy ylvauia representing eighty-one elect
oral votes,
The doubtful States are tie Middle West
ern. including Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,
Ohio and Wisconsin. together with New
York making l24 electoral votes. II is
apparent To any political student that while
Bryan can be elected by half a dozen diff
ferent combinations. ON the other hand, Mo
Knley must carry every Eastern state, to-
gether with even one of the Central Western
doubtful States. iii order to win
SIX TO ONE.
Therefore, he has one chance where
Bryan has six. While Bryan cannot win
without The doubtful States, his chances
for carrying them are better than Nc
Kinley's. and should lie get them all IL VIII
be u veritable landslide.
.'Of tie thirty-one Bryan States the
most doubtful are Iowa, Kentucky, Della
ware and Maryland. We can lose Iowa ana
Delaware, or Maryland and Delaware, and
still win, without carrying "a single coubt-
ful State in the Middle West. We can give
Mckinley ali OF the Eastern and Middle
Western, or doubtful States, together with
Iowa or Kentucky. or Maryland and Della
ware, anu u!eE viii.
''Of the doubtful States Ohio ismost likely
to furnish the greatest surprise. Inc SILVER
Republican vote Will be enormous. Our
most conservative polls and reports OF In
diana. Illinois and Michigan give these
three States to Bryan. Now conceded the
,l,y.s. a ~ fII gf.aS
Ohio and wisconsin to Mckinley, and we
can afford 20 lose Kentucky, Wyoming,
Maryland, Delaware, Nebraska, North Da-
kota, Oregon, West Virginia. Minnesota
and Iowa and still win. Again we can carry
Indiana and Michigan, which are sure Tor
Bryan, and lose Illinois, Ohio, New YORK and
Wisconsin, and in addition to all this give
them Kentucky, Maryland, Delaware, North
Dakota. West Virginia and Iowa and all the
Eastern states and we still win. There ar"
several other combinations, which include
states naturally for Bryan, and which i'll a
like Ill amer would enable him 10 win
BRYAN WILL CARRY ILLINOIS.
"In Illinois Bryan viii carry the State
outside Chicago by between 80 600 and 40
900 majority. The uncertainty is Chicago,
with its 100 geo misplaced votes. If Bryan
carries this city, he will carry the State,
and no cOmh hinatiop can beat him III the rest
of the States
In former years the floating vote could
be bought because there was only one or
two pivotal States. While it is possible
To buy the floating vote Of a single State, it
is not possible to buy up a whole nation
Then again, in former years the floating
vote was Indifferent 10 the results.
This year every man has strong cunvic-
tons, aud VIII secretly vote them in the
booth, whether he takes any money or not.
T6sseSsiua is nine points of the law. Bryan
has already enough States to win, with
more than an equal chance in the doubtful
States, and only needs to bold his own. He
will he our next President