Evening journal., 1896-12-17
CONTEMPORARY OPINION.
THE GROWTH or LONDON.


The recent census shows that during
the past five years the population of
London has increased at less rapid
ratio than during the ten years pre-
ceding. The number of people resi-
dent in the great city in 1896 was
$1,000 less than it would have been
had the old rate of increase been
maintained. This is not a very re-
markable shrinkage, but when taken
I'm connection with the fact that the
census of 1891 showed a falling OF in
the rate of increase, it is a circum-
stance with significance. During the
first three-fourths of the century the
Increase of population I'm London was
at the rate of more than 20 per cent.
between each decennial census. But
between 1881 and 1891 the rate was
but a fraction over 10 per cent, and
during the last five years a further
decrease is notable. There comes
time in every nation, state and city
when increase by immigration ceases
or is counterbalanced by emigration.
There comes a time when every com
munity with difficulty maintains its
native people in a decent condition of
life, and when this time comes the in
ducements to immigrants are few
while the inducements to emigrate are
many. This time has come to London
In such case the growth Of population
must be by the excess Of its birth rate
over its death rate. Now, the birth
rate of London diminishes year by
year; from 1871 to 1874. inclusive. il
was 35.2 per 1000; from 1891 to 1894 II
was 3O.9. The die rich and the des-
perately poor are prolific parents. The
der notice were 1876 for the first four
years and 172 for the last. All these
figures indicate the approach of a time
in which the population of the great
metropolis will shrink rather than eX-
pand
The problem of the growth Of Lon
don has been interesting TO speculative
statisticians at any time during the
past 200 years. In 1856 Sir William
Petty, justly regarded as the founder
of the science of vital statistics, wrote
in his famous tractate upon THE
Multiplication of Mankind" that if Lon
don should continue to grow at the
same rate that it had grown during
his lifetime its population would be
lO.00O,0O0 by 1910. He, however, pre-
dicted that occult but natural causes
would intervene to prevent the attain
ment of such an unwieldly growth, and
he fixed upon the year 1900. by which
time. as he reckoned, the population
would be about 500O,0 900 as the begin
ming of the era of recedence. AS a mat
ter of fact. the causes began to work
much earlier than he had anticipated
so that in 1900 the population was but
little more than 100000. Indeed, the
/ year that he predicted as that of the
/ beginning of retrogression was the be-
/ ginning of fabulous progression the
/ impulse of the great wars made Lon
don the centre of the world from 1906
to 1915; after that the application OF
steam, gas and electricity to the com.
mercial and mechanic arts made it a
! ioadstone to the luxurious, the avari
cious. the ambitious and the unem-
ployed. Yet Petty was not far from
guessing rightly. He estimated 5,000
GOO as the largest number of souls tha
nature would tolerate in one civi,
bond. The 100000 limit is nearly
reached in London, and the resilient
wave is perceptible-Ch Chicago Inter
] Ocean.