New-York tribune., 1896-12-28
MONEY AND BUSINESS.

ord <, PAM hay, for the time affected business.
though less than most men may have realized
There was growing rapidly feeling "f saie'y
| and confidence in the future which. with the
abundant supply Of money. insured by the eh"f
nous excess Of exports over imports gave prom
| isc of speedy improvement in business. hut
| there has suddenly returned something OF the
exaggerated conservatism which preVaiirh a''er
| the utterances Of the Chicago conNehtl"h' IL u
| in the last degree absurd To assert as So'''e
cranks on the currency do. that me recent i""-
ures denote returning distiust of tn" gr'ehhaoNs
The question now is whether the banking sNs-
lem IS as safe az had been supposed. or whether
n has heen So far abused in aid of stock. real
estate and produce speculations during the pro-
,orgad strain of the last four years. that other
weak spots are liable to appear. Happily, the
disturbance comes just at the time of year when
there is the least new demand for commercial or
industrial loans and when a soInder c"niderce
may he expected with the new year.
The difficulties which have so much enlbar-
rassed important industries do not yet disap-
near The. most important Of these. made
auacy Of purchases for consumption. still tends
in large measure to the same distrust Of the
industrial future which began to PROSTATE busi-
ness az soon as Democrats In power began To
ditional hands have found employment within
the last few months. many others have not.
nor have wages been restored To the level OF
1899 But there are other causes OF hesitation
I'm buvIng which, n less general In their influence.
are much more conspicuous In some quarters.
When speculation I'm cotton pushed up tho price
to SS1 cents early I'm September. until certain
New orleans banks broke down. there followed
the slow dragging decline In cotton and In goods
which has continued during the months In which
about two-thlrds Of the crop Is usually marketed.
Through all that time purchases ~ goods 10y
traders have been hindered by expectation that
the price would go lower. The boot and shoe
and leather manufacturers were placed In
similarly false position by the extravaeant rise
in hides averaging at Chicago - - per cent he
tween the last week of August and the middle
Of November and In some kinds OF leather prices
rose about 40 per cent In substantially the same
time The buying Of boots and shoes was al
most wholly arrested by the advance which
manufacturers thought II necessary to make.
and many Of the works are now without orders.
The rapid rise in the :'rce OF wool has also made
trouble for the manufacturers In much the same
way.
In no other branch Of Industry. perhaps has
the hoistinr Of materials without regard to the
astrous than In the iron and steel manufacture.
The fixed price OF coke. the combinations I'm
Lake iron ore the formation OF the great billet
pool. the advance Of steel rails So per ton last
year. with the formation Of other pools and as
socations to force prices up without waiting for
a larger consuming demand have made the year
peculiarly unfortunate for this industry.
Through the year purchasing has been much
retarded by the impression that the failure OF
another combination 10 maintain prices
would result in smash. 1t Is now stated that
heavy contracts have been made In bilIets
$1J per ton. against $50 - recently but that
the decline OF So in rails has not yet brought
out much business In this way multitude of
circumstances have worked against the recovery
Of the most important industries all through
the year. but especially during the latter part
OF It,
The year ends. on the other hand. with ex-
ports OF domestic products stimulated in a high
degree. while imports are exceptionally small.
having been exceptionally large during most Of
the last two years. The December exports from
New-York alone have iecn about ~ per cent
larger than last year. when the aggregate for
the whole country was s92 900 Similar in
crease elsewhere may not he expected, although
the Pacific Coast the gain has been large
But with only moderate increase In exports at
other points. the aggregate for the month would
rise to about SlOIOOO.OOO. the third month in
succession with such a record. making the total
for four months SiO4 O0O0O0 The total i'm
ports I'm three of these months have been only
S1Jl ,:'G1 .3jl. and the imports in four weeks at
NewYork have been II per cent Iess than last
year. when the total amount was SG2OO 900
These data would indicate not far from S2OG.-
Otm0,m for Imports against $iU1 .OOn.O for
merchandise exports In four months and as
net imports Of specie have been only about
$J1 .00OOOO there must evidently remain heavy
credits abroad, Notwithstanding all possible al
lowance for interest and dividends due and for
undervaluatons Of goods.
Cotton is a sixteenth lower for the week and
the quantity which has come into sight is about
2I2.OO0 bales less than in the same days of
December. 1894. from the largest crop ever
grown. apparently raising the aggregate for
four months to aDout 6.3O0.OUO bales Exports
for the month have been about 17j.OOO less than
In 1894. and takings Of Northern spInners about
$4,000 less. Stocks in this country are prac-
tcally as large in 1894 but stocks Of Aneri-
can abroad are about G25.OOO bales smaller 1t
may be observed that British exports o cotton
goods have for four months been slightly
smaller than last year. and considerably smaller
than In 1874. The other chief exportable prodl
uct has been going out very freely from the
Pacific Coast and Atlantic exports -four in
cuded. but slightly smaller than last year
In December. The remarkable fall in Western
receipts In December has helped to strengthen
the price which is nevertheless. not quite as
high as a month ago
To most observers shrinkage OF railway earn
ings seems sufficient reason for a fall In stocks
But after the fall OF about ~ per share. fol-
lowing foreign disturbance. the average Of rail-