The sun., 1896-10-31
WOW THE PoP1LIsrs PRoPHssT.
Chairman washburn Figures out nrysn's
Election In q Romp.


CHICAGO. oct 30.-The following hnal state
ment from the Porulist side as to election day
probabilities and expectations throughout the
country was given out tonight by Chairman
washburn of tho Chicago headquarters. 1t
said:
a" In view of the fact that tho people are anx-
ious to know what combinations OF States are
likely In win. / have grouped together several,
any group of which Is liable TO be the correct
one on election day. 1t is conceded that the
Democratic gold detection will be Offset by tho
silver Republicans, which leaves the normal
conditions Of tho two parties the Same. Then
add to the Democratic vote the two millions OF
Populist votes and 1t is apparent that Bryan
must win.
Fortunately the Populist vote is largest In
States where It is most needed, and. while
Bryan cannot win without 1t, he is suro to win
with 1t, and will get the full Populist
vote. In analyzing the vote OF tho coun-
try l have grouped as Bryan States the
agricultural and mining States, where tho
gold Democratic detection and floating vote Is
smallest and where the success OF the ticket de:
pends on tho farmers, who have heen educated
alliance meetings and who would feel insuited
II offered price for their vote or were coerced
In any manner.
Therefore IL Is conceded that the thrty-ono
States west of the Mississippi and south of tho
Ohio rivers, representing 242 electoral votes
Bryan is most likely to carry, and tho
States which are comparatively sure for
MS New cey sss seS
tho middle Western, INCLUDING, Illinois, Indiana
Now York, making l2+ electoral votes.
1T is apparent TO any political student that
ferent com binatons. on the other hand Mckinley
must carry every Eastern State together with
every one Of the central Wes,ern doubtful
chance where Bryan has six. While Bryan
cannot win without the doubtful States. his
chances for carving them are better than Nc,
Kinley's. and should ho get them all it would
prove to he veritable landslide.
douSu ths are Senykv Sah ane nnd
kentucky and Delaware. or Mary yland and Della;
State in the Middle West. We can give Nc
Knley all the Eastern and middle Western or
tucky or Maryland and Delaware. and then win.
"Of the doubtful States Ohio Ia the most
likely to furnish the greatest rent surprise The M sil.
most conservative polls and reports of India lana.
Illinois, and Michigan give these three States
doubtful States, New YORK. Ohio and wiscon.
sin. to Mckinley. and we. can afford to
aware. ava NsSrSska. North Dakota. Oregon.
West Virginia. Minnesota. and Iowa. and still
win. Again, we can carry Indiana and Michi-
y"
Ohio, New York, and Wisconsin, and in addi-
tion to all this. give them Kentucky. Maryland.
Delaware. North Dakota, West Virginia, and
Iowa. and all the Eastern States, and we still
win. There are several other combinations
which include States naturally for Bryan, and
which, in a like manner, would enable him to
win.
I'm Illinois Bryan will cary the State outside
Chicago by between 30.0U0and 40, 900 majority.
The uncertainty Is Chicago. with its 100. 900
unplaced votes. IL Bryan carries this city he
will carry the State. and no combination can
beat him In the rest Of the States.
In former years the floating vote could be
bought because there was only one or two
pivotal States. While it is possible to buy the
floating vote of q single State. 1t is not possible
to buy up whole nation. Then. again, in former
years the floating vote was Indifferent to the
results. This year every man has strong con-
victions and will secretly vote them in the
booth. whether be takes any money or not. Pos
session is nino points OF the law. Bryan has
already enough States to win. with more than
an equal chance in the doubtful States. and
only needs to hold his own. He will be our next
President"