The herald. [microfilm reel] (Los Angeles [Calif.]) 1893-1900, 1896-06-27
SILVER, THEN WHAT I?
BY ABBOT KINNEY

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happen If we don't? Free coinage of sill
yer at 16 to / will do the most opposite
things according to prominent American
public men. Some suppose one thing and
some suppose another. Supposition has
been piled on supposition until we have
such a kaleidoscope of contradiction that
one is tempted to invoke the ancient
aphorism, Suppose your nose was be-
tween your toes"
The supposers on one side would like
to see the supposers on the other size
in that somewhat awkward position
which we may assume would become
as wearisome to them as their variegated
guesses are to others. When guess
meets guess, then comes the tug-of-war.
Guesses of what is to be are incapable
of demonstration. While we are all mere
guessers in futures, there are certain ex-
perienceS of mankind that nave peen
crystallized into laws and principles.
From experience OF what has peen we
do have some grounds for guessing at
what will be. Ii man jumps OH the top
of the Stimson building on Spring street
we can apply the experience of mankind
crystallized into the law of gravitation
and guess that he will be picked up on
the pavement dead. Still, l remember
years ago the child of the janitor OF NO:
IS Nassau street falling from the top OF
that tall building. The presumption
was that he would be killed. On the
contrary, the youngster was not hurt
He struck q canvas awning and bound
ed across the narrow street into an
apple stand. The only person hurt was
the apple man, and that by the loss OF
the apples only.
So there are modifying circumstances
hat off nf
clearly recognized causes. A guess on
the results to this country OF 1t to l
free silver based on former experience
in monetary legislation can contain no
expectation of good.
l have been in general way over the
European legislation on money since
the year 1900. / can find nothing that
goes to show any effect by laws on the
value of either gold or silver. A very
general feature of the monetary laws
of this epoch was in every country anu
from time to time lowering OF the
standard of the metals in the coins
Sometimes this was done by taking
more or less of the precious metals from
the coins and adding base meal in its
place, sometimes it was simply by re-
ducing the weight of precious metal in
the coin. Credit money was as rule
unknown during most of this period. In
the multiplicity of these experiments at
lowering the money standard there is
no record of any advantage arising from
it to commerce or country. These low
cred standards never produced prosper
ity. The demonstration that lowering
the standard of money is not advantag-
eous exists in the abandonment of that
class of monetary legislation after 700
years Of recorded experiments. Indeed,
if there was anything in it we would
have no standard at ALL For advantage
year would not only justify its further
cutting down another year but demand
it, so it would only be question of time
before there would be no standard of
value left.
The guess of the silver men of what
will happen with free coinage at 16 to
is of dual character. One side says
that silver bullion will increase in value
to the ratio of law. In this case of course
things other than silver would not in
crease in value. The second view is
that things would about double in ex-
pressed value, and that debts not speci-
fled in gold would be cut in two. In
this case silver could not increase in
value.
1t is perhaps only proper to think out
some sort of reconciliation of these op-
posing views. This would be most nearly
met in lowered value of gold. 1t is
claimed that gold has appreciated
through discriminating legislation. and
that the cessation of such legislation
would stop further appreciation.
We can take the next step for the sill
yer men. ard say that legislation as
proposed would reduce the value of gold
and leave the purchasing power of silver
bullion just where it is This would
meet the claim that the price of cotton,
wheat, etc, is properly expressed in
sixteen ounces of silver and not in one
O11nna &c frY1n hot hi IL
would leave the silver miner absolutely
no reason for advocating the change. His
silver bullion would buy Just what it
buys now. The gold guess at what would
happen with free silver is that the com
mercial ratio Of the values of silver and
gold would remain as it is. That express
ed values would be doubled-doubled in
name but not in fact That all contracts
not specific as to gold would be cut in
two. That the changes in contracts
would be so great as to necessitate a
general liquidation. That such liquida-
ton In country doing 95 to 9S per cent
OF the business on credit, as this coun-
Try does would result in widespread
bankruptcy, and that gold would dis
appear, resulting in the immediate loss
of 100000 Of gold coin now in this
country
The gold men do not admit that FREQ
silver would cause silver to rise or gold
10 fecede IN value. There are some prom
inent silver men like Harvey and Boies
whose writings indicate the same opin-
ION. 1t is. however, possible that one or
both of these results might happen in
limited way, but | do not think that
the low ratio of 16 to would be even an
proXimated
Gold might be lowered by the large
amount freed by this country's under
Valulng 1t by free silver coinage The
nearly six hundred millions of gold thus
made available in Europe might lower
the value of gold. This view has some
confirmation in the claim that large adj
ditions to the worlds stock of gold COM
mencing in 1S4S, lowered the value of
gold. 1t has, on the other hand, a recent
denial in the lack of effect of the very
large increase of gold produced in late
years. But neither of these points are
exactly in line. The disuse of gold in
this country in 1861 is exactly in line.
The data at my command upon
which to determine what the effect
of this was does not show a diminished
value in gold. If we go back to the
Napoleonic wars, when gold was sup
planted even in England by notes, there
seems to have been no recognized fall
in the value of gold. The weight of tes-
timony is heavily against lowering in
the gold value by our official disuse of it,
Silver might rise on account of the
increased credit it would have as being
the official standard of so important a
country as ours. 1t would not be safe
to rely very much on a sentimental base
like this. The real question on this point
is what would be the demand for silver
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