Richmond dispatch. [volume] (Richmond, Va.) 1884-1903, 1896-10-31
P0PULIST FORECAST.
ELECTION DAY PROBABILITIES
Am EXPECTATIONS.
BRYAN THE NEXT PRESIDENT.
He Has Won Aiready, and Only
Needs to Hold His Own-rhe
This.

CHICAGO, ILL, October Sc.--rhc fol-
lowing statement from the Populist side
as to elecUon-1ay probabilities and ex-
pectations throughout the country vas
kiven out tonight TO the Southern Assc-
riated Press by Chairman Washburn. OF
the Chicago headquarters:
In view Of the fact that the people
are anxious to know what combinations
of States are liable TO win. have group
ed together several, any group OF
>hich. is liable to be the correct one on
election-day
1T is conceded that the Democratic
gold detection will be offset by the silver
conditions OF the two parties the same.
Then, add TO the Democratic vote tho
100000 of POpulist votes. and Il is ap-
parent that Bryan must win. Fortunate
~. the Populist vote is largest I'm States
where IL Is most needed, and. while Bryan
cannot win without a. he is sure 10 win
with 1t, and will get the full Populist
vote.
I'm analyzing the vote OF the country.
have grouped as Bryan States the agri-
cultural and mining states. where tho
gold Democratic detection and floating
vote is smallest. and where the success
Of the ticket depends on the farmers who
have been educated on the silver question
through school-house and alliance meet
ings. and who would feel insuItcd II Of
fered price for their vote or were CO.
creed I'm any manner Therefore n is
conceded that the thirty-one States west
OF the Mississippi and south OF the Ohio
rivers. representing 2i2 electoral votes,
or eighteen more than needed are the
States which Bryan N most likely TO
carry; and the States which are compara-
lively sure for Mckinley are the New
England States. together with New Jer-
sey and Pennsylvania. representing
eighty-one electoral votes. The doubtful
States are the Middle Western. Including
Illinois, Indiana. Michiean. Ohio. and
Wisconsin, together with Kew York.
making l24 electoral votes IL is apparent
to any political student that. while Bryan
can be elected by half dozen different
combinations, on the othey hand, McKin-
ley must carry every Eastern State. to-
gether with every one OF the Central
Western doubtful States, in order to win
Therf Tore. he has one chance, whore
Bryan has six.
etp0iDisl a Ian flOf4iDEL
While Bryan cannot win without the
doubtful States. his chances FOR carrying
them are better than Moxiniay's. and
should he get them all Il would provo
to be veritab'e landslide OF the thirty
one Bryan States. the most doubtful are
Iowa, Kentucky, Delaware ana Nary
land. We can lose Iowa, Delaware. or
Kentucky and Delaware. or MARYLAND
and Delaware, and stiil win. without car
rying a single doubtful state ia the Mid
die West We can give Mckinley all OF
the Eastern and Middle Western or
doubtful states. together with Iowa OF
Kentucky. or Maryland and Delaware,
and then WIN
"Cf the doubtful Stutes. Ohio Is mose
likely to furnish tho greatest surprise.
The silver Republican vote VIII be enor-
nous. our most conservative pclls aud
reports Of Indiana, Illinois. and Michl-
gan give these three States % fr-ran.
Now, concede the other three doubt fui
States-New York, Ohio, and Wisconsin,
10 Mckinley, and We can AFFORD to loso
Kentucky, Wyoming. Maryland, Della
ware Nebraska, Narth Dakota Oregon.
West Virginia. Minnesota, and Iowa, and
stu win Again, we can carry Indiana
and Michigan, which are sure for Bryan.
end lose Illinois, Ohio. New York, and
Wisconsin, and in addition TO ell these.
give them Kentucky. Maryland. Dela-
ware, North Dakota. West Virginia and
Iowa, and all the Eastern States and Wa
still win. There are several other COM
binations, which include States naturally
for Bryan. and which. In Ike manner,
would enable him TO win.
In Illinois. Bryan will carry the State.
outside OF Chicago by between $1,000 and
1000 majority. The uncertainty il Chi
cago with its 10000 unplaced votes. IL
Bryan carries this city be will carry the
State. and no combination can beat him
in the rest Of the States.
I'm former years. the floating vote
could be bought because there were only
one or two pivotal States. While IL Is
possible 10 buy the floating vote Of a,
single State it IS not possible 20 buy a
whole nation. Then again. IN former
years the floating vote was Indifferent a.
to the results This year every man has
strong convictions and will secretly vote
thsm in the boo n. whether re takes any
money or not Possession is nine points
OF the law. Bryan has already enough
states io win with more than an equal
chance in the doubtful States, and only
needs to hold his own. He will be our
next President -