The herald., 1896-05-16
cLEws. WEEKLY LETTER

been absolutely stagnant, although In
Investment business there has been fair
amount Of transactions. We note no
marked change in conditions calculated
to induce either free buying or selling,
nor any to materially affect values. The
London market has been injuriously
affected by the new and perplexing as
poets Of the situation In South Africa
which has Influenced our securities on
the London exchange unfavorably; and
the continued continental sales of Afri-
can mining shares on that market have
Indirectly Increased the exports of gold
from this center Over millions was
shipped Tuesday; Thursdays German
steamer took out about ga millions. and
today further sums are to be shipped;
so that the weeks exports will be
around 81 millions. But as these ex-
ports are largely incident to transient
speculative condition in Europe, they
are not expected to reach any serious ag-
gregate. These facts, together with a
fresh attempt to raise the Cuban ques-
ton in the senate, have been the unfav-
orable factors of the week. On the 9TH
err side of the situation, there has been
continuance of the improvement in crop
conditions, a maintenance of the better
tone in the commercial markets, and the
welcome resolution of the house OF rep
resentatiyeS to adjourn on the 18th inst.
The unfavorable set of conditions have
perhaps overbalanced the favorable fac
tors, ana tnlS must De dCCeptcu as az
counting for the slight decline in quota
tons.
The attitude Of Wall street Is SIM
ply that Of waiting for something to turn
up. The old conditions have been
watched and weighed until they have be-
come stale and uninfluential They do
not excite distrust, but simply lack slim
ulative force. Though spectators Are
wearied of dizziness and postponement:
they do not venture to SELL The bears"
are cautious and certain leading operat-
ors usually found on that side of the
market are said to be prophesying a
higher range of values. Stocks certainly
are not, as a rule. distrusted; they are
regarded as considerably below their
intrinsic value. Yet there is an indie
Unable something that prevents operat-
ing upon these convictions.
That something apears to be that, IN
the general situation. there is blend
ing Of conditions that are distinctly
hopeful with others that are disturbing.
1t seems to be a broad rule of the ma
tional condition that while the raw ma
terial of prosperity Is ready to hand and
waiting utilization. the mechanism for
converting it into wealth Is deranged
and distrusted. We have really no ser
iously unsound conditions of trade to
contend with. Having undergone three
years of widespread liquidation. credit.
though suspected in some quarters.
SnOUlQ De III a generally Sdle sfHu SolNC iil
condition There is no imitation of values
in any department of either trade or
finance. In a few branches of industry.
there may have been brief oversupply
of goods, but production and importa-
ton have been and are now being very
sharply contracted, and the country is
fast moving towards state OF under
production and of meager stocks of
merchandise. Certainly. too. there is
nowhere any initiation of prices. All the
rise that occurred in the hopeful squirt
of 1895 has since been lost. and the cur
rent level of commercial values is prob
ably as low as at any time within the
last thirty years. and on many impor-
tant lines of goods it is lower in GER
tain important branches of production,
there is very large reduction from the
volume Of previous years. Since the
crisis of 1890 our construction of rail-
road has averaged only 2o00 miles per
year, whereas for the five next previous
years the average new mileage was 5000
miles; the outlays on rolling stock have
also been similarly reduced; and yet,
within this period, there has been an
| increase of fully 1,000,0 900 in our popula-
| ton. Can it be said that there is no
great increase of railroad construction
| and equipment impending? There has
| been a like check upon Shipbuilding. and
| upon the construction of dwellings. We
| have nowhere any "boomS; no specula-
ton in any kind of commodities or en-
| terpriSes. In the homes of the people
| there has been for three years a sharp
| curtailment of OUTLAWS on articles of
| comfort and luxury. The postponement
| of domestic repairs and requirements
| has been general; and in our factories
| and workshops there has been a reduc-
ton of OUTLAWS on repairs or removal
| tons of plant. Three years of such def
| erments has accumulated a vast amount
| of necessary replenshment which needs
| to be undertaken. The country is suffer
| ing from this long period of enforced
| conservatism and postponement of nee
! essary wants, and cannot much longer
J defer supplying them Such condition
| of affairs has always proved to be the
| occasion for revival of business. some
| times steady, al other times sudden;
and there is no apparent good reason
! why the present situation should fail to
result in like outcome. 1t is an utter
| misconception to suppose that this re-
! covery is being or will be held back by
an insufficiency of money. The amount
| of money in circulation. outside the
| treasury, is today s15oooo,0 900 greater
| than it was in 1890, and Is larger per
head of population than it was then:
and yet, at the same time. decline of IL
per cent in the clearings of the banks
of the United States within the last five
| years. shows that less currency is need
ed now than In 1890; so that we are real
ly in the midst of relative 1nHatlon OF
the currency. The facts here cited are
conclusive evidence that we have al
ready on hand all the material needful
to a sound and general revival OF busi-
ness throughout the country.
| The mechanism required to bring
| about that revival, however. is not IN
| a hopeful condition. BY the mechanism
/ I mean all the various agencies needful
to make accumulated wealth productive.
The disposition to invest is now held un-
der restraint Private capital stands
aloof from new ventures and clings to
those tested by experience. at no mat
ter how low rates of interest. The trust
ees Of capital are timid and either keep
their funds idle or seek temporary we'll
secured employment for them at nominal
rates The contributions of invention.
in the shape of new economies Of pro-
duction. are held in allegiance; in fact
the whole mechanism through which
capital operates Is suffering a sort OF
GOLD DUST w