The record-union. [volume] (Sacramento, Calif.) 1891-1903, 1895-11-23
INTERPRETING ELECTION STATISTICS
Discussion Before the National Sta
tisticaI Association.
Wonderful Falling Off in the Vote for
Old Parties in Many of
the States.

WASHINGTON. Nov. 19.-This even
ing the National Statistical Association
listened to an interesting paper on own
ers of Farms and Mortgag es" by George
K. Holmes, who had charge of the Di-
vision of Farms. Homes and Mortgages
in the Eleventh Census.
The rest of the evening was devoted to
the hearing and discussion of the fourth
annual paper on interpreting Election
Statistics" by Frederick c. Waite, sta
tistical expert in the Department OF Ag-
riculture Mr.. Waite said:
Another tidal wave of disapproval has
been recorded at the polls. OF the three
great parties in the field two have re-
ceived q very smaller percentage OF the
total vote than in former years; while the
third, the stay at-hOme party. has made
the most wonderful gains. For instance,
in Pennsylvania the vote Of the Demo-
Gratis has fallen to 80, 4Sl from 446, 633 in
1883. that of the Republicans to f56. 10
from 526, 08l in 1888, while the vote OF the
stay-at-home party has increased 10 6l0,-
OOO from only T0, 600 in 1888. In estlmat-
ing the total vote, aliens. foreigners with
first papers, criminals, paupers, ETC.,
have been deducted from the male tax
ables II years or over. In New Ork
the stay-at-home vote has increased from
"a. 900 in 1883 to 1S5, 900 IN 1892. $4,000 in
1874 and $40. 900 this year. Even in Ken
tucIIy it has increased from $4,000 in 1888
to lou, 900 this year.
In Massachusetti it has increased from
so 900 in 1883 TO 100000 in 1892 and 5000
this year. In Ohio, from AZ, 900 in 1888 to
10000 in 1892 and to 10000 this year.
The increase in the stay home vote has
been scarseiy less marked in other States.
ola 10 ha l. ay hoo ord vr
which the citizens OF continent express
and record their wishes-their hopes and
their discontents-we must not expect to
be able to comprehend the intrlcacy OF its
workings, except as we analyze the re-
turns in the light of a half century or SO
of election statistics. Turning to my
statistical chart, Comparing the pollti-
cal complexion of American elections"
YOU see that during the last twenty years,
and also the twenty years ending with
the breaking up of the Wing party, the
Democrats carried every alternate Presi-
dental election, and yet were always de-
feated at the interesting Presidential eleo-
ton.
In other words to the Democrats 1886 and
1876 brought victories at the polls; 1910
and 1880, defeats; 1874 and 1884, victories;
1913 and 1885, defeats; 1852 and 1892, VIC
tories.
In explanation of these phenomena L
may say the forces which in Presidential
elections result in the defeat of the party
in power are two:
First-The dissatisfaction with the party
in power among the members cfthe party
out of power is so great that they 1eel 1t
to be their sacred duty to turn the res
calls out" On the other hand, the adher-
ents of the party in power are constantly
being disappointed. They feel that they
have not received anything like the care
and recognition which was promised.
Second-There is an Inherent ebb and
flow of enthusiasm among the adherents
of political party. Naturally the num-
Der of years from tioodtide to flood tide
of enthusiasm comedies with the period
icity of the cause which once III eight
years falls in with it ana carries 1t to the
maximum hight; namely, the storm OF
Indignation against the high banded par
tisan misrule OF their opponents.
Three years ago in lecture at Johns
Hopkins University, having thus pointed
out in detail that the election pendulum