Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1895-08-12
TRADE RELATIONS
Not Much Discussion of the Reel
prooity Treaties Likely
THEIR REAL ! EFFECT DOUBTFUL
Causes That Control Trade Beyond
the Reach Of Treaty.
AN UNDEEIvERED SPEECH


1t Is not likely that during the next 20
litical campaign there will be much dis
cussion OF the reciprocity treaties or that
the republicans will be inclined to push this
matter to the trent.
AS rule the leaders Of the republican
party believe that the next campaign
should be fought on old lines Of republican
principles. For this reason there Is gen.
eral belief that platform should be franz
ed that will be but a reiteration OF doc
trines heretofore approved by the party,
and in all ways there Is an intention
among republican leaders to claim that no
revision of their policies Is necessary TO
insure to the country prosperous future.
Among other wel-defined principles Is the
doctrine Of reciprocity as means OF ex-
tending the foreign trade OF the United
States.
The Real Effect Doubtful.
With an enlarged free list and general
reduction of the customs duties, the doc
trine of reciprocity would be less erective
than 1t would have been under the Mck1n-
ley tariff. But even under the high tariff
laws the real effect of the reciprocity treat
les is a matter of dispute. The only way
to prove to the satisfaction of the skepties
what the effect of these treaties Is would
be by statistics of expectations TO the
countries with which treaties were effect
ed While these statistics are available 1t
is impossible to CLEAN any light from them
regarding their effect on trade except in
the case of ore or two articles, the cXpor-
tation Of which was greatly Increased after
the treaties went into effect.
The advocates Of this method OF building
up trade claim that the full benefit CT the
treaties was never realized because they
were not In effect long enough to :;ermft
them to be put into complete practical OPP
Grafton.
Best Result in Cuba.
The best result accomplished by the
treaties was with Cuba. in which case
trade was Increased from 1l,929.OOO in
1891, the year before the treaty went into
effect, to s2s, 600, 600 in 1898. this increase
being chiefly in the expectation of -four
But strange as 1t may appear. the trade
of some other countries which were ex-
pected to receive more American goods
than ever under the treaty actually took
less of such articles than before the treaty
went into effeSt I'm 1891 Nicaragua inn
ported American goods to the amount of
81, 592. 900, and m 1853 it fell off to SS12OOO.
During the same period the decline in
in Brazil from Sl4.049,O00 to 600;
while the trade of this country with Porto
RIGA increased from s., 10000 to $2502.OOO.
There was no 5dsiprocity treaty effected
with Colombia, yet the expectations from
the United States to that country in cotton
goods alone increased from $1I1,OOO in
1890 to S296O00 in-1s92. a period when the
treaties We're in effect in other countries.
The total eXportsI from the United States
to Colombia in 1890 were s2,522,000 while
in 1891 they intf6ased TO s3,1OS,e00. in 1892
were So3o,0o0 and in 1898 were $S,041,ooo.
Causes That Control Trade.
OF course in the-ease of Colombia after
the retaliatory acts of the United States
the trade with tRaf country fell off great
ly- The hard times did not make their
of the United States with the South Ameri-
can countries during the first couple years
OF the period during which the treaty was
in effect. The Argentine Republic had
little panic of her own, but those troubles
did not affect other South American coun-
tries.
| The conclusion reached by those who are
| inclined to doubt the effects of reciprocity
treaties is that there are causes that con-
/ troll trade that are too powerful to be af-
| fected by any such treaties Statistics
| show that trade has increased. or decreased
| for reasons far removed from any govern
mental act. For instance, one year in
| Brazil the corn crop was unprecedented,
! and there being no other use for this
product it was fed to hogs. and as a re-
| suit, that year the importationS of Ameri-
| can pork by Brazil fell off one-half. There
| are various causes that operate to affect
| trade that could be ascribed as the work
| Of Providence rather than of man and
| man-made laws, The advocates Of the
| reciprocity treaties do not claim that there
are no other causes that control trade, but
| only that such reciprocal arrangements are
| based on sound business principles and
have tendency to build up trade. And
| SO the matter rests.
| Great Britain's Trade Extended.
Another fact that complexities the study
of the effect of reciprocity treaties is that
| In some cases, where an increase Of Ameri-
| can trade was shown, the trade Of Great
| Britain which enjoyed no such treaty, was
| greatly extended also. 1t would have been
| expected that extension Of American trade
| would have tended to cut down the trade
| of other countries, and in cases where a
| country increased it's trade With all or near
| ly all the countries with which it dealt the
cause could be ascribed only to an increased
! demand of the importing country, and not
! to any special advantage given the United
| States over competitors. The causes which
| increase or diminish trade are very COM
| plicated. and both the advocates and enc
mics Of reciprocity are at loss to account
for many statistical facts relating to trade.