The record-union., 1895-07-13
DOllndS

In lS |9I ,OoO
From this statement we soc that the
annual expectation Of 1873 was l ,432, 100
pounds. In the course Of ten years the
amount of the annual expectation had
increased to such an extent that in 1888 1t
was IL, l66,3l9 pounds more than in 1873.
In 1889 the expectations were ), l57 ,537
pounds more than six years earlier, in 1888;
and in 1890 they were 6.041. 100 pounds
more than during the previous year.
If, in want of the exact figures OF the
most recent years, we assume that the
annual increase OF expectations since 1890
has been what it was during the year 1882
$780, we shall reach the provisional state
ment that the expectations for the year
ending in 1895 will amount to 5S,012, ,556
pounds.
The cultivation of coffee and other ex-
portable products is favored at this time,
in order that they may be sent abroad to
liquidate foreign obligations. and thus
prevent the expectation of silver at its
present low price. This appears to be q
kind of generally accepted policy. If
this design Of exporting agricult-
ural products and manufactured COM
modities to pay for imports and meet
the interest on foreign loans is carried
out, the result will necessarily be a
state of things apparently not foreseen
here, at least not brought forward in the
optimistic views set forth. Hitherto sill
yer has been exported because it has been
the cheapest thing Mexico could produce
which was largely demanded by foreign
ers; and thus ip spite of the enormous
production, it has not accumulated in the
country TO such an extent as TO affect the
currency seriously by causing an undue
initiation. Hence. considering only the
immediate past and only one phase of the
economic forces in operation at present,
there has come into existence in Mexico
a feeling of remarkable hopefulness with
respect to the future, which does not ap-
pear to be entirely justified. For, in
financial affairs, the immediate effects of
a policy are not adequate grounds Of
judgments respecting the merits of that
policy.
The immediate effect of any form of in
fiated currency is to stimulate economic
activity. Whether the sudden over
abundance of money is caused, as in Ger
many after the war with France, by the
importation Of large amount of gold, or
by importing or mining and coming
large amount of silver. or by issuing an
inordinate amount of paper money, the
immediate economic effects are essentially
the samoa feverish activity. in which
enterprises of various kinds are set on
III iot,
some part of the gains that appear un-
usually large and easily earned. This
movement goes naturally to the point
where the extraordinary amounts of capi-
tai invested fail to bring the expected
returns; and there follow losses from dis
appointing ventures, consequent failures
to meet obligations. an inevitable subse-
onent shrinkage and the other character
istic and familiar features of a CONNER
cial crisis.
ANY artificial stimulus of prod uction,
if carried far enough and rapidly enough.
whether caused by an increase in the
amount of the currency. or by stopping
the pre- xisting currents OF imports, will
lead to the same result. The decline in
the price of silver has operated in both of
these ways in Mexico. The imitation,
however, has not been very great 1t
has come only in proportion to the un-
usual amount of silver that has been re-
tanned in the country by reason OF the
substitution in the list of exports Of other
commodities for a certain part of the sill
yer usually exported. In the other way
the fall of silver has been much more in
| tiueniial. By making it impossible to
get from foreign countries more than
about one-half as much for a dollar as
| formerly, it has practically doubled the