New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1895-01-18
WHEAT.
WILD GUEssES or OFFICIAL AND OTHER STA.
TISTICIANS.

WILD GtEsSES OF OFFICIAL AND OTHER STA.
TISTICIANs.
To the Editor OF The Tribune.
Sir: The preliminary statement OF exports OF
wheat in December makes the record for the
first half of the crop year substantially complete
In that month IL. 1872 1872 bushels -four included
went abroad against 11.07S.936 last year. The
Increase Is small, considering that the average
export price was 54.S cents against Co cents last
year: for difference of ~ cents per bushel would
naturally be expected to stimulate larger foreign
buying 1t Is significant. however. that the ex-
port price from the Pacific States was about as
much lower. ass cents against $50 cents last
year. the average export price from the At
lantic States 60.9 cents, against 7O7 cents last
year. This goes far TO prove that the price this
year is mainly determined by other than Ameri-
can causes.
The net exports from all ports Of the United
States, -four included in five months OF the crop
year ending with November amounted to Gi.4l9-
7l2 bushels. against So 1872 $50 in the same months
OF the previous year. and the decrease was
fairly divided between wheat and -four the ship
ments OF flour being about 1000 900 barrels small
er. But since the end OF September the exports
have been larger than In the same month last
year-about 100000 bushels In October. 400 600
bushels in November. and 700 900 in December
that while the shipments during The first
quarter Of the crop year were 22.500,00O less than
in the same months Of 1899. the shipments for
the second quarter ending with December were
about 1906. 900 bushels larger than In 1892 This
Is not an encouraging difference. considering that
the price has fallen about 10 cents per bushel
both for the Atlantic and the Pacific shipments
This fact alone. the slender increase Of exports
in the face OF a great decline in prices. shows
that the controlling factors are to be found out
side this country
The Agricultural Department estimated the
yield OF 1893 at 39G 900 900 bushels in July. 3ss
100000 bushels in August Az 00O 900 bushels I'm
September, $4,000 900 bushels in October and In
January its final estimate is AGO 900 600 bushels
which will be found at least so 100000 less than
the actual yield. 1t began with a falsehood Of
about 1870 900. 900 bushels and has since cut down
the untruth about one-half. No one need be sur
prised that the department Is out Of the way.
It's principal business for two years has been TO
deceive people. II possible. and It's melancholy
failure has been the ineffectiveness Of It's decep-
ton. Nobody has believed and nobody now be-
lieves its estimate as to any crop. 1t puts the
yield Of corn about 1000 Bushels too low
ard the yield OF cotton about 100000 bales too
low, and the only sensible thing TO do with It's
wheat estimates Is to disregard them altogether
THE Cincinnati Price Current guesses about
800 900 900 bushels for 1894 and my guess is about
S20 OO0 900 bushels; but II had several million
Granger constituents to consider, doubtless We
could both put guesses very much lower.
The visible supply IL about 100000 bushels
than 1t year ago. Except when
market conditions cause especially rapid market
ing there is safer rule than to reckon the
total unsold supply as proportioned TO the visible
supply Of wheat But Mr.. Thoman calculates
that the stock Of wheat in farmers hands is
80, 900 900 bushels less than II was year ago and
] sincerely hope that all the available statistics
lie and that he tells the truth The un-
vanished truth IL that We brought over July
In visible supply alone 54851O0O bushels and
probably half much more. or In all SlOOOOOo I
bushels and since that time have consumed for
food and seed about 1874, 900 900 bushels, and have
exported from July TO January about II0O0-
900 bushels making about 2Il 100000 bushels. or
1870 900 900 bushels more than the stock brought
over from previous years. What has become OF
the remaining 270,0O0.000 to 33O,OOO,OOO bushes!
Perhaps Mr.. Thoman knows. II not. he can
guess But about 175.O00.OO0 bushels will he re-
quired for food and seed TO July and II does not
need a prophet TO make known that the exports
from this country during the remaining months
OF the year will not exhaust the balance certainly
on hand. w. vi. W.
NeW-York Jan. 10, 1885