Daily Kennebec journal., 1895-09-20
Hopes Based on the Crops.

The chief of the bond syndicate, J. Z.
Morgan, offers to the public as an antidote
to the fever produced by the revival of the
drain of gold the assurance that there
ought soon to be "a good supply of bills
against cotton and breadstuffs. and he is
surprised there is not a greater amount
on the market"
If Mr. Morgans surprise becomes
chronic it will confirm in the trading
mind the suspicion that a plethora of
commercial bills is not coming TO the re
lief of the syndicate soon and that there
are substantial reasons why they are not
likely to.
We enter on the exporting season with
the depressing weight lin july of an cx-
ported supply inclu1ing surplus stocks in
Europe and crop of 1860, 1876 bales of
cott IN for 1895, as against total supply
for 1894 of 1881, S17 bales, more than
two and half million bales Of estimated
excess this gear over that of last, whose
price sold at between ) = and 35 cents.
The market is now attempting TO main
tain price of 7-16 cents for middling
uplands, which is fifth higher than it
maintained last year under supply
officially reported at a fourth less than
that of the present year. The stock at
Liverpool on Scptcml cr H. was l,l54, 900
bales, against 9l5, 600 bales ut the corre-
spending tine lust year, not Ot~ithStanding
the total receipts to date are only 60, 655
bales, against lO2, 224 last ye.r, ami the
stock mt United States purts 3JI 24S bales,
gainst 234, 250 at the corresponding time
last year The crop cannot crowd forward
against the unusual surplus held over,
and the price thus far sustained seems de
pendent on a much more marked impeaoh-
mcnt of the estimate of total supply than
has yet developed.
To base expectations of an early adjust
ment of our adverse balance of trade on
an extraordinarily large corn crop, when
corn, Ct all other crops. is that of which
an exctss in quantity does the most to
dcpress the price and to secure IA smaller
total return ON the aggregate crop, is an
obvious fallacy. If the corn crop has
swelled beyond the point at which in
crease in quantity increases its aggregate
value, and has reached the point at which
every added million of bushels lessons the
total value of the whole, then the larger
crop Is q source of diminution. rather
than of increase, in our agricultural re
mooted that corn at from 50. 80 to 1926 a
ton is better fuel than coal at $40 ton.
AS to the wheat crop after the corrections
which have recently been made in the
prospective French and other foreign
crops, the estimates fixing the American
crops at about 425, 900, 900 bushels, or
30. 600 900 less than the crop of 1891, it
is simply case of an abundant foreign
and scant domestic supply, which means
low price and u small export. If our
20, 000, 600 people should consume wheat
at the quantity per capita of prosperous
periods, say of 5.9l bushels per capita, as
IN 1892, or the 603 bushels, as In 1881
and 1890, there would be none whatever
for export. If our consumption, owing
to the times, is held down to the 3,
bushels per capita of 1894, the lowest
since 1867, then we should have small
export at the cost of our own dinner pals,
Altogether, therefore Mr.. Morgan has
no good ground to expect that the crops
will relieve the syndicate of its work or
put gold into the treasury. If doubling
the exports from Manchester to the United
States during the last year and running
the mills of Bradford night and day could
in any way help to turn the stream of
gold toward us, our situation would be
excellent But, unfortunately, these gen
erous incidents of our upselfish legislation
can only be rewarded in another and
better world.
There is likely, therefore, to be a de
mand on the treasury for an annual out
flow of gold equal to whatever adverse
balance of trade may arise in the dealings
of our people with those of other coun-
tries This happens to he not far from
equivalent TO the increased importation
of foreign goods thrust upon the country
by the Gorman-Wilson law. Thus the
tariff reformcrs succeed in putting the
United States treasury in position
analogous Co that of helpless old papa
of excellent amiability to whimsical
young lady of expensive tastes What
ever she buys he must pay for. If he can
not pay in cash be must give his notes
The notes on the treasury are met by
selling bonds. If this is not paternalism
pure and simple. we should be glad to see
it proved. And as the papa in this case
can never die and the people can never
stop buying, the end of paternalism is
bankruptcy and hard times.