The representative. [volume] (St. Paul, Minn.) 1893-1901, 1895-09-25
The WHEAT CROP OF 1895.
IT is OVER-ESTIMATED.-THE
AVERAGE is REDUCED.
Minnesota Should Get a Fair Price
For What She Has to Sell.
(From the MINNEAPOLIS Tribune.

From the Minneapolis Tribune.)
B. w. Snow, the statistician Of the
Orange Judd Farmer. of Chicago, and
for number Of years assistant statis-
tician Of the department Of Agricul-
ture at Washington, was a caller at
the Chamber OF Commerce yesterday.
He has been in Minnesota a week
looking up agricultural matters at
the State Fair.
Mr.. Snow estimates the wheat crop
Of Minnesota and the two Dakotas
this year at 14O, O0O,O 900 bushels. These
figures, he admits, are lower than
those Of others who are quite as likely
to be correct as he. Nevertheless, he
has reason so convincing in his own
mind that he cannot alter his conclu-
SiOns.
'Last year I was fairly correct in
my estimate of the "wheat CROP" he
said to the Tribune, II made my fig
ures 1O1, 100000 bushels; the govern
ment crop report was S7,00O.000 bush
els, and the crop finally turned out to
be 100000 bushels, This year the
government estimates make the crop
105, 100000 to 110,O00,0O0 bushels; es-
Inmates have been made as high as
165. 100000 The last named, however,
in my Judgment, is altogether too
high. It is based upon the theory
that there has been phenomenal
crop all over, and that the acreage has
increased. Both of these propositions,
| think, are open to objections. In
the first place, the men that talk Of
the immense crops are usually those
who have been looking for them
When man goes to estimate wheat
he goes where the wheat is, and he
gets his impressions from what he
sees where it is thickeSt. He never
looks where it is acknowledged the
crop is small. "While the crop has
been enormous in sections it has not
been SO everywhere. In Minnesota my
reports show that the crop has been
large generally except in spots, par
ticularly in the Red River valley. In
South Dakota six counties in the
southeastern part of the state had
immense crops but in the rest of the
state there was nothing to brag Of.
In the jim River valley the wheat
was not an unqualified success. The
same is true of the Jim River valley
in North Dakota.
"Then l cannot agree with the as
sumption that the wheat acreage has
increased. 1t is true, this acreage has
increased in the North, but it has
been decreasing quite as rapidly in
the South. | have had rela tives in
Dakota county, in this state, for the
last 40 years. When they first moved
there wheat was almost exclusively
grown, and in 1879 the acreage in the
the county had increased to 100000: in
10 years the acreage had fallen to
25 900 and this-year, l am told, there
were not over 5000 acres soWed in
wheat in the whole of Dakota county.
"That shows the tendency every
where. Within five years Minnesota
has made phenomenal stride in dairy
ing, and that has paid SO much better
than wheat raising that the acreage
has decreased very rapidly III the
southern counties. This is my basis
for the belief that the crop will not
exceed 14O,OOO.O00 bushels"
Mr.. Snow, while manifesting no pre-
judice against any Of the industries
which he analyzes statistically, says
the time must soon come when the
American farmer will stop raising
wheat for export. Even now the
business does not pay except in the
best favored sections. In few years
Southern Minnesota will have follow
ed the lead OF Iowa and other states,