The San Francisco call. [volume] (San Francisco [Calif.]) 1895-1913, 1895-06-09
EUROPEAN WAR CLOUD.

Inc latest and most interesting theory
concerning the European war cloud which
has been advanced by any one having the
authority OF an expert on the subject is
that OF Assistant Naval Constructor Hob
son, who, about five years ago, was sent to
Paris to study naval architecture, and
while there succeeded apparently in learn
ing to draw war conclusions about as well
as warship.
According to Hobson's theory England
Is the storm center OF the war cloud, and
Its wrath is likely to break upon her shores
IN a short time. The causes for the ap-
preaching war are to be found in the Rus
sian desire for Constantinople and the
French desire for Egypt These desires
being already felt, and being moreover
subject to continuous irritation, both
France and Russia are inclined to war and
are awaiting only until their naval prepa-
rations shall have given them superiority
to England on the sea. At the present
time the British navy is stronger than
that of France and Russia combined, but
owing to the activity of the two latter
powers in building warships, Mr.. Hobson
believes the supremacy of force viii be on
their side by 1897, and he fixes that year as
the date for the beginning of the war.
The outcome of such a conflict would be
the destruction of the British sea power
and the consequent loss to that country OF
all her fortresses on the Mediterranean
and her prestige in Europe. England
having been thus disposed of, France and
Russia would then obtain the cooperation
of Italy for general reorganization of the
Continent. France would .concede Nice to
Italy for her assistance in recovering AL
SAGE and Lorraine and she would be per-
mitted also to annex the Austrian prov
inces on the Adriatic. The Austrian
empire would be bIotted from the map
and Germany would fare almost as badly,
for France would extend her borders to
the Rhine and Russia would take all OF
German as well as Austrian Poland and
several of the Baltic provinces besides.
In this forecast of the probable result of
the coming war it will be seen that Mr..
Hobson assumes that England would be
left to bear alone the brunt of the first
French and Russian attack. Ofcourse If any
frst-ciass power should go to the assistance
of the British the whole course of events
would be different. The task before France
and Russia, therefore, is one Of diplomacy
as well as of naval construction. They
must isolate England from European alli-
ances as well as surpass her as sea power.
1t would seem that the diplomatic task
would be difficult, and yet the favor with
which Germany regarded the action Of
Russia in the Orient recently would sig
Nifty that it is not impossible. Perhaps
Germany and Austria are confident they
have no need of England to maintain the
balance of power on the Continent and
would be willing to see her driven from
the Mediterranean. If this is so, the fore
cast of Mr. Hobson may be fulfilled. At
any rate general European war seems
certain to break out before long, and this
being so the estimate as to the probable
result, by man having such advantages
of studying the situation as Mr.. Hobson, is
sufficiently important to prove of current
interest.