The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1895-09-18
The Cotton Crop of 1s05-oe.

Savannah, Ga, Sept. 16-Towards the
close of the growing season the probable
out-turn of the American cotton crop Is
always a question of lively interest to
the trade throughout the world. The
present year is no exception. for the ele-
ments Of uncertainty are more than US
ual.
First, the reduction in acreage, the ex-
tent of which is estimated, and unknown:
then the probable effect of a known re-
ductiOn in the use of fertilizers; and then
the more or less mixed and contradictory
reports from the growing crop as affected
When cotton was so low last season, the
opinion was universal that much less
i Mould be planted the follow
advances. should 'f the moral MONEY in-
huence of Improbable prices not suffice
TO restrain. Now we know advances were
much restricted. Not only this, but in
Vulnerable small farmers Who previously
put little patches of few acres in cot
ton, but who never depended on advances,
got dlsgusJed and turned their attention
anu patches 10 other crops. Il
appears clear that acreage was
very considerable reduced in
fact decrease much in excess of the
published estimates is not unlikely; that
is, the generally accepted estimate Of
ABOUT 10 per cent. decrease is more apt
70 be too small than too large. The falling
on IN amount OF fertilizers is called about
~ per cent, but as IS per cent (say) would
go to balance smaller acreage. the rela-
tive decrease would be only about %
per cent.
As to weather and growing conditions.
the public and official reports weekly
ana monthly, speak for themselves, and
certainly unite in saying that the season
has at least been one OF the very worst
on record. Perhaps the most striking cir
cunstance has been the rapid deteriora-
ttioh IN the condition of the crop during
the last SIX weeks or so, resulting in a
present state as to render almost hopeless
any material recuperatiOn later on Here
IN TINS crop viii be found TO differ from
last year S; for then throughout the belt
the plant possessed vitality enough to
Keep on growing and making far into the
autumn. AT this time last year the reas-
ohaDle expectation was scarcely over nine
million bales the excess being due to the,
extraordinary late growth. 1t is useless
70 expect anything of the same kind this
ram the condition of the plant simply
does not warrant it. OF course an early
frost would cause a shortage from what
we might now call the reasonable expec-
tation, ana a prolonged and favorable
autumn would undoubtedly result in a
certain increase, only much less than took
place last year.
With all these facts in mind. it is diff
cunt 70 see now any one can find grounds
LOT expecting anything like a large crop
TINS year. Figuring reduced area and
comparative September condition with
last year crop, would make next crop
signify below 100000 bales. Nobody.
however, would attach any weight to a
crop estimate so, derived, but we can ar
rive at practically the same amount by a
method of comparison which offers more
likelihood of giving at least an approx
mately satisfactory result
To decide how much an average crop is,
We may take the average of the past
six years, say, which is just about $780,
OOO bales; and no doubt this can be fairly
called about the normal crop at present.
For these six years the government fig
ures for the September condition average
81 almost exactly Calculating the pres
ent crop, calling condition 70.S gives us
scarcely 100000 bales. This, moreover
on the assumption that the acreage was
normal, or about the average Of past
six years. whereas, there can hardly be
any doubt that it was less than the av-
erage, and possibly considerably less.
Therefore, without any allowance for
later change of conditions, better or
worse, further than above suggested, we
conclude that the present prospect of the
crop of 1896 is for yield of rather un-
der than over 100000 bales.
VIM. T. Williams.