Bismarck weekly tribune. [volume] (Bismarck, Dakota [N.D.]) 1884-1943, 1895-02-08
Especial Correspondence

partment's latest advices from Australia
Indicate that wheatgrowers there have
about given up the idea of competing with
Argentine. I soon found, however, that
the worlds demands are very certain to
far outgrow Argentine's capacity, and
after digesting all the tables down to tho
first of this year 1 went again to the agri.
cultural department. They gave me a
room to myself, with all the reports for
ten years and al analysis of their system,
the latest letters from our consuls abroad
and the services of an expert clerk to ex-
plain everything, and l went at the mass
determined to understand the subject or
perish in the attempt.
l had no difficulty in locating the main
trouble. The source of it was in the tru-
ly phenomenal crops of 1912. The de-
partment twice raised its estimates and
still had them by far too low. Starting
with 1000, 900, 900 bushels of wheat in
round numbers for the two crops, it raised
them to 1,12S, 600, 900 bushels, but the
trade movement showed the yield to he
larger still, and it is now suggested by
some experts that the crops of those two
years may have reached the truly amazing
aggregate Of l 300, 900, 900 bushels. Those
two years will long rank in history as
J0dIS WuCu UtlG CCIUll lltCtdlly DrOuSll
forth by handfuls," as in Josoph's time
in Egypt, and in a less enlightened age
miracle would have been called in to ex-
plain them and myths and legends have
multiplied. AS an immense amount had
been carried over from 1SS9-9O, it really
seems as if the American farmer had the
task of disposing in two years of nearly
1850, 600, 900 bushels of wheat. Cautious
experts would make the amount only 1OO,-
600, 900 less. AS the outside estimates for
food were $40, 600, 600 bushels and for seed
. ITO, 600, 900 bushels and the exports &C
count for but AIT, coo, 600 bushels, it is;
evident that considerably over 200, O0O. 600
bushels were left to cmbarrass the market
for the two subsequent years.
Difficulties of Estimating.
It is this surplus which our farmers
have been kicking before them from year
to year. 1t has Initiated all subsequent
calculations, and thus the trade movement
every year shows more grain than the de-
partment estimates. OF course this can
not last, n this year the two are likely
to come out even. AS the department had
greatly underestimated the two ''surprisc
crops" it is open to its enemies to charge
that it is in the habi of Understanding,
and as the crop reports are made up about
the tim that Wall street wants to boon
railroad stocks, dividends depending OF
the grain to be transported, and Chicago
spectators want to depress the market
there is a fine opening for q war of ex
perts. Another and a very curious diff
GUILTY Is that in some staples the local re
ports ~habitually overestimate and in other.
grossly underestimate. Thus, in looking
over the tobacco reports, I found that TO-
several years while his work was onl.
bureau business the producers counted
down so much faster than the statisticial
could count up that the reports became ut
terly worthless, and a delegation of tn
trade called on him and demonstrated Wig
orously.
He read them a reply which is a curiou
compound of apology and defiance, an
In it is this interesting statement: In
previous year the assessors in Kentucky
officials sworn to return the exact amour
!. for taxation, put the aggregate SO 10y
that he raised it and excited their wratl
but the actual sales showed it to be 81 pc
cent greater than their assessment. MI
j. R. Dodge, then statistician, was S
savagely attacked by various papers an
7 interests that for three years there wol
+ practically no full reports except on corr
+ wheat and oats. He had been in the of1it
a quarter of u century, but went out wit
the Harrison administration. We hay
the word of himself and his assistant, M:
B. w. Snow, that they had done splendi
for the government, from which I suppo:
h that they concluded that they could do sti
better for themselves, and having the go