The Salt Lake herald. [volume] (Salt Lake City [Utah]) 1870-1909, 1895-03-28

r or the nrSC time since OCTOBER 20,
silver has touched the Ga cent mark,
it having registered a gain of 4 OF a
cent yesterday. This makes cents
gained within the past week.
Much speculation has been INDUCED
in regarding the probable ecauses for
this continued advance in the price of
the metal and the Engineering and
tons upon which the movement may
be based, as follows:
First-The assumed decrease in the
production of the metal.
Second-The benefit expected to ac-
crue to silver from the holding of an
international monetary conference.
Third-The silver speculation in In
dia, which is said to be assuming large
proportions.
Fourth-The expected demand for
silver in the east consequent upon the
conclusion of treaty of peace be-
tween China and Japan.
The first two causes are dismissed
briefly, with the statements that there
is not likely to be any such decrease
in silver production as the spectators
for rise would have others believe
and that there is still great uncertainty
regarding the holding of an interna-
tional monetary conference. The good
result of the conference, if held, will
depend entirely upon the adoption of
practical plan for attaining bimetal-
ism. If an international agreement for
this can be secured, then, indeed, sill
yer will be reinstated, and with it
everything else will receive benefit.
But very little reliance can be placed
in the third cause, in the opinion of the
journal, since the demand is liable to
cease unexpectedly at any time. The
fourth cause is undoubtedly the vital
one. and of 1t the paper says:
The fourth cause given above, is
undoubtedly that upon which most re-
lance is placed by those who look for
further rise. The war expenditures
in the east, and the expected require
ment of large amount--it is said
$500, 1000 or $500 900 000--as an in
demnity from China by the victorious
Japanese, will create deman6-for sill
yer which it will take some time TO
satisfy Plausible as these claims ap-
pear, we think that they may be ex-
aggerated, if not altogether unreliable
AS far as the war expenditures go,
China has raised several small loans in
Europe, but the money so secured has
been entirely expended in the west, so
that these loans have created no de-
m2nd whatever for silver for trans
mission to the east. The war expendi-
ture of Japan was met by loans raised
at home, and there has been no special
demand for silver in that country
While weekly reports show, it is true
a considerable increase in the amount
of silver RENTED to both the contend
ing countries, that amount is not
greater than would have been required
in the ordinary course of trade, when
we consider that exports from India
to China have been very light for
nearly year past, while the exports
from Japan to India and other eastern
countries have increased in a marked
degree.
$50 far as the peace negotiations are
concerned. it is still uncertain whether
Japan will demand and receive terri
torial concessions or a money in
demEity. Should the latter be the
case, the amount will undoubtedly be
large, and the $500, ZOO. 900 or $500. 900 900
talked about is probably not too high
1t has been suggested that the payment
of this sum would be demanded in
gold, or in both metals. The main cur
rency of Japan is silver and paper, and
unless the government should drop sill
yer and adopt the gold basis, which is
scarcely probable, though not impos-
sible, there is no reason why any con-
s1iCeraItlle part of the demand should
be made in the yellow metal. If silver
should be required for the payment, it
is not by any means certain that the
west will be drawn upon for the whole
amount, or even for any great part of
it. Under present conditions the
Chinese government could not obtain
the money in Europe. except upon such
onerous terms as even "a defeated
country would hardly be likely to ac-
cept. Whether the demand could be
furnished from the home stock, we do
not know; undoubtedly the quantity
Of silver in China is very large. and
is estimated by our mint bureau at
S75O,O00,0 O0 1t seems probable that the
country itself and its people could fur
nish a considerable part of the metal
needed. Moreover. 1t is not probable
that so large a sum would be exacted
within short time. Payments would
most probably be extended over a CON
siderable period so that the demand at
any one time would not be extraordi-
nary, and would not exceed the amount
which could be furnished from accrued
stocks here and in Europe without
difficulty.
'Under all the circumstances. we
cannot anticipate any great or per
manent rise in the price of silver until
an international agreement for hi
metallism is adopted On the other
hand, the small gain already recoroeo
is not likely to be lost soon. and a
fairly steady price may be anticipated
for some time to come