New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1895-10-23
THE EFFECT OF COTTON SPECULATION.

The fall in cotton is not real, but only an
apparent loss to producers. At the time they
were most earnestly persuaded to hold back their
cotton for higher prices the gamblers In that
product were moving up the price full cent
from September % to October 16, and 1t then
declined full cent in less than a week. The
people who benefit by these artificial blooms"
or Immediately suffer by the inevitably follow
Ing reactions are not the producers. But their
loss comes in the worldwide disturbance OF the
movement to market. and In dstrust regarding
the future Of prices, both for cotton and for
goods. which will not be easily shaken off, In
order to appreciate In part the effect Of such
operations, 1t is only necessary to recall some
Of the statements of Mr. Ellisons September
circular.
Therein he stated that the consuming world
would 'get back" this year about 100000 bales
from India and other sources OF supply outside
the United States. which had failed to come for
ward in the last crop year because Of the phe-
nomenally low price Of American cotton. II Is
not difficult 10 see that the artificial advance IN
this country at the beginning OF the marketing
season peculiarly favored the selling or TINS 1or
eign surplus How much OF 1t has been bought
within the last month by European splnners no
one can tell for the records only show actual re-
ccipts in Europe but do not show when or where
the bales were bought. In times OF great dis
turbance in western markets 1t Is natural that
orders by letter or wire should be sent from EN-
ropean mills or houses acting for them to India
and Egypt and that quantities should there be
purchased which will appear In the statistics or
movement somewhat later. But though Amerl-
cans cannot know how much OF the 6OO,OOO bales
Of surplus cotton have been taken on account
Of European spinners within the last month"; it
Is the part of prudence to infer that those spin
ncrs would have defended themselves as far as
they could. so that large share may have been
go taken. There would naturally be much more
buying in regions where quantities OF cotton
were available at low prices than in this country
In brief, then, the boom has caused the mar
kctlng of n surplus held by other countries and
brought over from last year to an extent when
can only be conjcctured, but possibly Including
most Of Mr. EllsOns surplus OF 6OO,OOO bales
American producers have thereby been shut out
from the worlds market by the performances
OF American spectators, and Will realize lower
prices in consequence. For the possession OF
large supplies will make European spnners more
easy in mind and less anxious to pay American
prices The commercial and new stocks OF
American carried over september i, dCColuihS
to Mr.. Ellison 2.977OOO bales. have been In
effect increased by the purchases from other
countries while American markets were arti-
Gcially rugged by spectators The existence OK
so great surplus was at the best menace 10
the interest Of American producers, which has
been rendered more serious by the course OF the
market.
Cotton was selling ut a little above cents
when Mr.. Ellison stated about month ago that
the market had gone high enough, in his judg-
ment for the probable decrease in yield. Since
then there have been many manufactured reports
OF hurry but no statement entitled TO half as
much credit as that Of The Financial Chron-
icle" which u.s. that the output will not go below
100000 bales II this Is correct, the crop year
starts with about 100000 bales American, be-
sides the surplus Of 100000 bales then unsold
by other countries As Mr. Ellison reckoned the
actual consumption Of American cotton, apart
from the surplus Of other countries excluded,
at S25O0O0 bales, II will be perceived that even
the lowest Of the crop estimates leaves large
supply to be carried over II consumption In spin
ming Is as large as 1t was last year. 1t may be
somewhat larger though an increase In Europe
Is likely to be followed by a decrease here, but
British exports Of cotton goods In nine months
ending with September were 3,I61 100000 yards,
against 1915 100000 yards in the previous year
"A decrease Of about per cent.