New-York tribune., 1895-02-14
COTTON CROP ESTIM ATES.
THE GOVERNMENTS FIGURES AND
NEILLS.

MORE FAITH PLACED IN THE BUREAU THAN IN
THE PREDICTION OF THE NEw-oRLEANs
PROFESSIONAL BEAR-BAD WEATHER
DELAYS PLANTING IN THE SOUTH
ITO ,,,-oo,so difference between the Government
estimate of the cotton crop OF 1894 which was only
a lite over 100000 baes. and the estimate put
forth BY the bear leader Nell, in New-Or.eans' OF
TO- 900 bales has provoked much comment III LiV-
eroool in New-York and in all parts OF the wof.d
in which interest in cotton prices Is Wdhhes.eo
4 ne cotton brokers in New-York agreed yesterday
almost w,hou: exception. that the Government es-
tlnnate was FAR too low. But tho great majority OF
men who are familiar with all the facts ABOUT co'
ton are firm IN the conviction that the extreme
bear estimate made by NeI Of prodisious crop
OF 100000 bales Is far more seriously IN error 'hah
the Government estimate of?oSSOV bales' Inc NM
onare spectators in England and America VINO
have been ls!ng every means in their power for
wears 10 depress vaues and to over the price OF
cotton have had their most uss;u. ana eHect'e a.y
In Mr. Nel.l OF New-OT.ears.
Mr. Nell has aways been in the haol' of making
cnormou-.y high estimates of the cotton crops ana
his estimates have Always sent down prices in Eng
land and IN this country. ard have been OF the
most extensive and serious injury to the cotton
planters. Coo, cam. intelligent men everywhere are
saving that the Government has such facilities ana
resources for getting figures on the cotton crop tnat
that Of Neiu. The Nell estimate appears to be
cxtravagantly and nexcusab.y highat least, so the
best informed and least prejudiced cotton experts
say. \ difference OF nearly 10000 baes between
tho Government estimate and the Neil estimate Is
amazingly large. But the best Informed cotton ex-
perts say that the actual crop will probably prove
I, be nearer the Government estimate than the
Nelu estimate. No one believes that the Neill
estimate was unpreiudced. that 1t was carefully
calculated ir TIE effort to get at the exact truth
without, reference to is effect upon the market
New-Orleans dominated the New-York Cotton
Exchange yesterday and steaGied market inclined
TO be weak because Of weakness in LVerpooi. IL
il noticeable that New-Orleans. which feels the
pulse OF the belt to greater extent than
this market continues in the main bullish and ac-
cessons reported there yesterday to that SIDE
OF several firms ard operators who have been
bears for the last four or 1--WE months. The deduc-
ion made by the assistant secretary OF the New
Orleans Exchange tas-d On the proportion OF cotton
marketed to February !, according TO the , oo.e
ment report. is 95is.00O bales or about f""o oaieS
more than the Bureau estimates. and sonethihs
ike 10000 bales less than Neills minimum
total Reports came from Southwest Texas, where
the planting season Is already at hand, tnat tne
Planting of cotton is delayed by bad weather.
Our market opened from unchanged to point
down. and closed to points net gain for the day:
Light receipts at New-Oreans tomorrow heipeo
prices at the close. and reports came from 'ne
South tina, the long-expected falling OIL IN recep's
was In sight. Sales reached only 5ooo" bales.
Atwood Violet & Co. say:
\ bale OF cotton represents SO litte money money Hor
that the holder. or contract representative OF OIL II,
should look a, II as an investment because, al pres
article dealt in specuiatively. Should such ieelng
as this become az al current IN me SouH' gay rs@y
result IN the holding back seT Mlred 9d oaa,atons oI
than is perhaps thought likely.
The New-York sun" ir ats cotton article OF Tues
day mornng. contains the following matter. which
4. hDi
any attrn on to cotton prices Here are some ex-
tracts from The suns co,ton-market article
\ party OF New-England mill men Will leave bos-
ton for The Caronas neXt week & 10 & ~ ssrertaIn
ing what advantages the South offers IN the manu-
e Of Of S20S e%ps SUSs1s k @ bales % Behind last
week Ncw-Orlcars reports that the interior wagon
sS'p dar are s rns m nexi sp' week The Of
February Il. 1892. gave the action OF Various con. CON
next crop. and a New-Orleans dispatch today said:
The agitation az these conventions resulted IN re-
ducton u lloocO acres compared Win 'he acreage
Onellka. Ala Feb At is estimated that TO 10
per cen. is stl, to come forward according 70 10,
ca:y. Preparations for the new crop have not
aSS' ions until March and may stIll be able % make
good 5rop The amount Of fertilizers hauled out OF
cent CEN as compared with last year. The amount re.
esyed i the rn S mot to 5nas se 70 S
saes DO NOT think more than 50 to 90 per cent Will
be used this season compared with last year;
owing 10 the low price OF cotton seed two-hrds OF
the farmers have not sold their seed. and the 1uan-
lily OF home made stable manure which they expect
70 use will to some extent take the place OF com,
mercal fertilizers. Nothing definite can De S1.a Tha
about the acreage until planting time arrives Inc
small farmers will be able 10 cut their acrsase
much and the larger well-to-do farmers VIII re-
duce their acreage. II makes very material diner
ence in TIE outurn OF the crop where fertilizers are
used and where they are not. =, -.
Cotton is cheap as everybody knows, and IN iact.
It Is So cheap that many operators are disincined 20
sell II short white at the same time they are walt
ine for some decisive developments favorable TO the
hillish interest before taking the long side In the
mean time IL Is a small speculation.
Savannah Ca, Feb. Sour receipts are sustained
somewhat by sales OF lots IN the interior closing out
in;erest hut there are few Of these eft In the
smaller towns There was a sale Of l;cO bales In
AnerIcus a.so one In Cuthbert, leaving little IN
elther nlace and our local receipts are scarcely
CROUCH TO make consider them. thus showing
that the plantations are nearly II not en'ireiy' eh-
hausted