New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1895-02-06
.r,yr LATEST OFFICIAL GUEST

TIE LATEST OFFIfIhI "CCHI'
Secretary Carlisle has sent to the Senate
,ou,;frIIv iIItimcd statement which in the
Judgment Of The Ncw-iork Times mas
oucnchcd any spark Of hope" that rrmaihn
for the gold bond bill. which President 'lcVe-
land has besought Congress to pass. anu '''"'
journal recalls the Sccrctary's letter 10 Seha'or
Harris. strcnuorsly opposing the free sugar. co''
and iron bills favored by the Administrations
and involving the honor and the solemn pieuseS
"of the Democratic party" That letter IKE the
one lust sent in. appears to lhe Ii'hcS
mas,crpiccc Of the difficult art OF dong II 'h'ns
"at the precise time when 1t VIII produce 'ic
utmost possiblc mischief AMI confusion. ""'c
L. This does some Injustice 10 the Secretary
intention. for even his political opponents are
dsposcd TO conccdc that hc labors earheSti! ana
in good faith according TO his Ights' 10 40 ''''
best he can for the country ana MS parry i''
has made some grave mistakes. but not greater
than the President himself.
II seems almost cruel to discuss Secretary car
isles latest prediction. a man may moi DC api'
g., ouoss worth a cent and yet be Il useful pub
H.. ,ti.,r Mr.. Carlisle g,icsscs that the surplus
r,venu. during the calendar year 1870 will be
60, az; OBJ Only two months ago he guessed.
in his annual report. that the surplus for the
fiscal year beginning with next July would be
s,o ooo ooo and rs he must obviously he reckon
inc ON a progressive recovery of revenue and
bisincss over half. or nj the least Hl'oooooo
~ that surplus. must he expected from the
latter part Of the fiscal year. namely IN" nrst
half Of the calendar year 1896, which would
leave a surplus not exceeding Sl4.OoOOOO for the
,,st half ~ the present calendar year. But to
In
,so, the excess Of revenue must be ut the least
IS .,s, 600 for the six months ending Win next
lime one Of these months has just closed with
n deficit Of S6,Il9,0iI. although January was
o1ncc;.d to result; exceedingly well because Of
the enormous Withdrawals Of wooncn goods
from warehouse under new duties. In spite oi
these facts Mr. Carlisle now expects. therefore,
/, surplus Of Sl5.2s2.ooo in the fye months
February To- June inclusive.
This is not only larger for five MONTHS than
Mr. Carlisle estimates for either SIX months "i
the next fiscal year. but it Is about Si'"'""
larger than The surplus actually was IN the same
five months before the panic ~ lNr'. when ~"
revenue under the old law was still unrcdured
Truly Mr. Carlisle Is hopeful man. or more
accurately. perhaps a man If varied and ms
ccllancous expectations His first Treasury
statement December 10. lN3;. predicted deaclt
II S2SOcpuW for the year then current. but II
turned out 10 hc S1oWOoo". Last December
he estimated deficit Of S2ooooVVo for the cur
rem; year but II IL already S3i.2>,"'". aAd
probably no one except Secretary Carlisle r"iily
expects surplus ~ Sl5nooooo in the remain
ng live months.
II * possible. IA every one knows, 10 1orc"
surplus by delaying and embarrassing the sell
Element Of Government obligations The Trlb-
unc does not credit Secretary Carlisle with any
such intention The fact remains that no one
can predict how much h. may find II eXpedcnt
10 pay during the rest ~ the fiscal year. But
the revenue depends upon influences which can
M. I'm some measure, estimated From imported
goods other than sugar receipts were not OK
pcctcl To- be- n large under the old tariff. bui
I'm the five months February 10 June inclusive
were So 2,;svO last year. The sugar consuInp
ton seems Ia be- this year about sixth short
of the normal. and ~ an excess ~ ~ VDW~
pounds was brought in before September To an
ticpate new duties, and 123.OOooo0 pounds ap-
near To have be-,n brought into market since,
there may remain for Ave months about go
100000 pounds to come In. which would mean
n revenue of $g.JOO,WO. Internal receipts about
sci 900 900 less than last year for the last i've
months were jj.IJO.OU In the remaining nve
months Of the last fiscal year, and II would
seem as much ~ could be expected III the re-
cciptS for the coming five months should reach
SJOOOOO 600. or. including customs and misccl-
laneous receipts. about Sll00o0OO0 Marked
Improvement in business, for which all sincerely
hope. would increase the receipts: but II MIR.
Carlisle actually gets. including income tax pay
mcnts. Sl2OO00OO0 revenue in five months. In
which the actual expenditures last year were
about Sl45 100000 he will have some cause for
thankfulness How he can extract a surplus "
Sl5, 100000 does not yet appear.