St. Paul daily globe. [volume] (Saint Paul, Minn.) 1884-1896, 1895-07-22
HENRY CLEWS SAYS THE MAR
KET HAS NOW REACHED a
POINT WHERE
PRICES ARE SPECULATIVE
AND PRUDENT OPERATORS ARE
INCLINED TO REALIZE ON
HOLDINGS.
CROP REPORTS
tainty in the Valuation of
sS9ckS.

NEW YORK, July 81. = In his
weekly review of the financial stu
alton Henry Clews says:
The stock market is at the moment
following the laws of speculation
rather than those of investment. In
all great fluctuations in the price of
securities there are stages when the,
speculative element comes in as a
legitimate and wholesome regulator.
In the present upward movement
that stage has arrived; and prudent
operators will recognize that the
causes which have been carrying up
prices at such a rapid rate must
now be subject to test and check by
expert operators versed in all the
arts by which a speculative position
can be attacked and weakened.
The salient points in the market
are these: 1. Prices have already
made a very large advance, and
the holders of stocks could, as a
rule, sell out at unusually handsome
prices. It is therefore reasonable to
suppose that some Of them will realize
upon at least a portion of their
holdings, in case of persistent at
tack from the "bears." 2. Some large
sales of Tong" stock have already
been made by shrewd "bulP' operat-
ors, and it would be only expert
tactics on their part to give aid and
comfort to the enemy in it's assaults
on the market as means of buying
in again at lower range of prices.
8. Apart from speculation, it may
perhaps be fairly conceded that, up
on the whole, the level of prices
is we'll up to what is warranted by
the last five months of Improvement
in conditions. 4. The prudent class
of operators are likely to conclude
that it would be dubious policy to
buy at present in anticipation of
future further improvement in con-
ditions, or until at least the market
has been so far tested as to show it's
intrinsic strength. 5. They are the
more disposed to take this attitude
of waiting because certain important
factors incident to this season of the
year are. just now in a state of I'M
certainty. 1 here refer more especial
ly to the
CONFLICTING REPORTS
about the cereal crops, and especially
to the impossibility of forecasting
the outcome of the great corn crop.
These points of uncertainty are the
more important because the present
prices Of stocks represent sanguine
Interpretation of the crop prospects.
6. The expected early completion of
the reorganization of bankrupt rail-
roads suggests questions upon which
there is some difference of opinion
among professional operators. On
the one side it is maintained that
these adjustments will excite a great
| deal of speculative activity, and an
| upward speculation in the securities
thus restored to the market. On the
! other side it is argued that, in order
| to operate in these restored stocks
and bonds, the holders of other Sc
curities will have to sell out their
present stocks; and those realiZings,
| they reason, will have a tendency
! to check any advance from these
| anticipated new influences. On all
| these points there are differences of
| opinion; and it is those differences,
| in place of the hitherto unanimous
bull feeling, that gives to the sit
uation, for the moment, tone of
uncertainty and prepares the way
| for oscillations in prices.
Beyond these influences, there is an
I'll
representation and of being made the
cause of needless distrust The period
is approaching for the formal termina-
| ton of the obligations on the part of
the loan syndicate towards the govern
| nlent. That conclusion will leave the
| treasury with a stock of gold more or
| less in excess of the legal limit; but
whether any provision of a. more or
less permanent nature will be made to
PROTECT THE RESERVE
agaist Withdrawals of gold for export
has not yet been formally made known.
The reputation of the syndicate and
the large corporate undertakings to
which its members have committed
themselves in consequence of the re-
covery of confidence make it incon-
ceivable that the great bankers should
permit the treasury to lapse back to-
wards it's late embarrassments. The
| consequent suffering to the govern
! ment and to the country and to our
| foreign credit, in the event of such
| relapse, convey the strongest possible
| indirect assurance that the members of
| the syndicate will yet find the means
| of guarding the treasury by some per-
manent form of protection. But there
| is always class who, under circum-
stances that call for faith in honor and
! patriotism, are disposed to foster dis
tensions. The bears may be ex-
| pected to follow such tactics at pres
| ent; and there will be a class of timid,
| ignorant and disaffected people who
| are disposed to follow their lead, and
the more so should they see gold facti-
tiously exported in order to excite this
sort of distrust. There is one fact,
however, that will weigh more in the
| scales of common sense than all these
| bear" argumentS-namely, that since
| the syndicate contract was undertaken
| parties to that contract have become
sponsors for $780, 000, 900 of our securities
| which they have transferred to Euro
| pean investors and are likely to still
further augment those negotiations
All things taken into consideration
the situation is still one that calls for
prudence in buying, at least until ag-
| gressiveness is transferred from the
bear" side to the 'bulr' side of the
| market.