New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1895-06-14
THE oFDTrIiL CROP ESTIMATES

Tho Government reports 81 growing crops
would be- ~ the utmost importance At this time
II they could command respect. But 1t Is evil
dent already that neither foreign nor domestic
oplnlon has been affected to any apprecable ok
tent by the official ouigiyings Some II the light
headed Spectators. who rush to buy or TO sell at
the slightest rumor. good or bad. have moved
priccs a tritc FOR the moment, but the general
drift of opinion Is substantially what II was be
fore the Department made its estimates. There
IS n good reason for this. both In the origin of
these estimates and In their nature when com
pared with other accounts from the same source
or with accounts from other sources.
A year ago the June report " wheat Indicated
4137i30 600 bushels and the July report 3N).11o,-
900 bushels but the market, taught by the expert
cnccs Of Sc, cral previous years treated these esti-
mates rs entirely worthless and the price dropped
I'm six weeks after the middle Of June from ~ 10
,tih cents The Street was right, for while the
Department Ultimately acknowledged yield OF
OOOOO bushels the statistics now prove be-
yond dispute that the production must have been
more than IOO.OUO.OOO bushels. Last year the
June report as 10 cotton indicated yield OF
about 100000 bales but the records now prove
that IL was about 2.OOOOOO bales larger and the
Department aficrward clumsy explained us
wild error by hosting its estimate Of acreage
from 1GSOOOOO 10 23,6S7 ,O0O-over IN per cent.
I,ut II the Department Is forced to admit that
IL could not get within 40 per cent Of the truth
I'm n matter so easy OF determination rs the
ocrcage on which cotton was actually growing
its other reports must be entitled 10 no credit
I'm fact the Department itself has virtually adj
mlttcd the worthlcssncss Of Its recent reports by
Announcing a new and elaborate system Of crop
rcporting which 1t Is about TO try but which will
obviously take some time to get into working
order
The June reports themselves, however they
NAV be used 10 deceive the light-minded do not
seem calculated 10 have serious influence In either
direction. The decrease Of his per cent from
the DEPARTMENTS revised estimate Of acreage I'm
cotton last year would give about 20. $4,000 acres
this wear. while "'rhe Financial Chronicle" makes
the area 100000 less. But IL the Departments
figures are taken the condition must be reckOneL
only 1..} points lower than last year. and there IS
no sort Of question that the actual outcome Der
acre last year was the largest ever known. Thus
the DEPARTMENTS own figures would work out n
yield Of 100000 bales or more, which Is con
siderably above most OF the unofficial estimates.
Obviously II Is too early, IN season when
growth has been unusually retarded, to Judge OF
the final outcome from the present condition OF
cotton. while the estimates OF II to II per cent
decrease In area. against 20 to - per cent ex-
pected. are not enough to prevent Il yield exceed
ing the worlds consumption In any year, and the
heavy stocks 10 be carried over yet remain.
The Departments report about cotton. evident
ly, will not much enlghten any one.
The wheat report, indicating 237, 100000 BUSH
els az winter wheat, against 300OOO000 month