New-York tribune., 1895-12-17
CARLISLE AS A PROPHET.
IN FORMER REPORTS HE ESTIMATES
WERE MANY MILLIONS ASTRAY
THE DEFICIT so FAR THIS YEAR rs GREATER
THAN THE ESTIMATE HE MAKES FOR
THE WHOLE YEAR-H,s HE
MIRACLE Up HIS SLEEVE?


MIRACLE Up HIS SLEEVE?
rBY TELEGRAPH TO THE TRIBuNEI
Washington. Dec. 16.-Just what the Ad-
ministration expected hoped to gain by holding
back the annual repor, OF the Secretary Of the
Treasury until the beginning of the third week
of the session. II IS difficult to imagine. that
the document has made its appearance. II is
simply an echo Of President Cevelands annual
message, supplemented by statements and esti-
mates Of receipts and expenditures.
The country has learned to take Secretary
Carllse's estimates with large allowances OF
salt. In December 1893. after five and one-half
months Of the fiscal year 1894 had passed. he
estimated the receipts OF the year at 900
in round figures, and the expenditures at N3S,-
100000 leaving deficit of $2S00O0OO. At the
same time he estimated the receipts Of the fiscal
year ending June 80 1895, at s454 600 900, and the
expenditures at s44s 600 O00 leaving a surplus OF
S6O0o00O The actual receipts of the former year
amounted to about 1872 600. and the ex-
penditures to about SAP 900 000 leaving de-
felt Of about $40 100000 instead of s2S 100000.
In December, 1894 after five months Of the
fiscal year ls94-5 had passed. he made new esti-
mate for that year. in which he placed the re-
cepts at $i24OOO,OoO and the expenditures at
s444 900 OO0 leaving deficit of s20000000, instead
Of a surplus Of Sc 900 900 At the same time ne
estimated the receipts Of the year ending June
&c. 1886 about sac 900 OO0 and the expenditures
at about si4S 900 OOO leaving a surplus for the
year of about s2s.OO0000. According to the report
made public to-day the receipts during the year
ended June 30, 1885, amounted to about S59oooo'-
000 and the expenditures amounted TO A43oO0-
OOO leaving a deficit of about SAB OOO. 0O0 instead
OF a surplus Of Sc 900 900 or deficit or s2OOOOOOO
The Secretary of the Treasury now aIter hole
than five months Of the current iiscal year @ nay
passed estimates the receipts at aoou' Sfooc 90
900 900 and the expenditures at about S4i9,OUOVVV'
leaving deficit Of Sl7 900 900 instead or the sur
plus of s2S,000,000 given In his estimate oi ias'
year But repeated failures and dsappont-
ments have neither soured nor dlscourageu MN.
and he comes I'D smiling with an estimate or
a surplus for the year ending June 80 ls9L ne
figures the revenues for that year al sfof,''9,oVV
and the expenses at 4o7Ss4,ooO mot lhcluul"s
any payments to the sinking fund.-, leaving a
surplus Of 1905 600
Judging by Mr. Carlisle's former oitcial
guesses in regard to revenues ana eXpsnui'utes
since he has been at the head OF the treasury
Department that estimated surplus VIII proDaDly
be superseded by actual defclt al least tnIee
times as large a. the end Of the nsca year lo9'.
IN order To realize his estimate Tor the current
fiscal wear the receipts Of the last six and one
half months must not only equal. but exceed
bv the sum Of about 81 100000 monthly the ex.
penditures Of that period. The expenditures OF
the first five and one-half months have exceeded
the receipts by the sum Of $ls.SlI23l, or at the
rate Of about s3.4OO.O00 month.
lust what sort of a financial miracle the Sec
r.tarv Of the Treasury expects To work before
June 90 1886 his report does NOT disclose nut
that a miracle will he necessary seems 10 ne
apparent. in view OF the fact that lne 'otai H. H.
reints from customs and internal revenue for the
year will fall Sl3000.000 short of the estimate
unless there shall be an average increase oil
g O0O 900 a month over tn average ot the last
five and a half months, or decrease IN eNpenu'-
lures
Gov svronss q secretary Carlisles report page 13