The Wichita daily eagle. [volume] (Wichita, Kan.) 1890-1906, 1895-11-26
GONE BY DEFAULT
ELECTION RESULTS HANDLED BY 4
sTATIsTIOIAN.

tions of Recent Mountaineering Coin
cidences Discovered In Comparing the
Past Twenty Years with the last Twenty
Years of the Wing Party's Existence
Democratic Dissatisfaction with the
Administration.
Washington, Nov. 25.-This evening
a National Statistical association lis
tened to an interesting paper on Tn
terpreting Election Statistics" by Mr..
Frederick C. Waite, statistical expert
In the department Of agriculture. Mr..
Waite said:
Another tidal wave Of disapDrovai
has been recorded at the polls. OF the
three great parties in the field two nave
received a very much smaller percent
age Of the total vote than in former
years; while the third, the stay-at-home
party, has made most wonderful gains.
For instance in Pennsylvania the vote
the Democrats has fallen 10 2s2,4S from
i46. e33 in 1888, that of the Republicans
to 45S, 745 from 52s, 0S1 in 1888, while the
vote Of the stay-at-home party has in
creased to $4,000 from only 10000 In 1888.
In estimat ting the total vote, aliens, for
efgners with first papers, criminals,
paupers, etc, have been deducted from
the male taxaables, q years or over. In
New York the stay-at-home vote has
increa sed from u. 900 in 1888 to 1S5. 900 in
1892, AS. 900 in 1894, and 900 this year
Oven IN Kentucky it has increased from
g, 900 in 1888 to 100000 this year
"In Massac husetts is has increased
230. 900 this year. In Ohio from 40. 900 IN
1893 to $4,000 in 1892 and to 10000 this
year. The increase in the stay-at-home
vote has been scarcely less marked in
other states.
"As the election IS the key board by
which the citizens of continent ex-
press and record their wishes-their
hopes and their discontents-we must
not expect TO be able to comprehend
the intricacy of ITS workings, except as
we anyaliZe the returns in the light of
a half century or so of election statistics
Turning to my statistical chart. com
pairing the political complexion of Amer
lean elections you see, that, during the
last twenty years, and also the twenty
years ending with the breaking up of
the whig party, the Democrats carried
every alternate presidential election,
intervening presidential election.
I'm other words to the Democrats
1885 and rs brought victories at the
polls; 40 and 80 defeats; IA and "a VIC
tories; '4S and '88 defeats; SO and '92
victories.
I'm explanation OF these phenomena
] may say the forces which in presi-
Dental elections result In the defeat of
the party in power are two:
First. The dissatisfaction with the
party In power among the members of
the party out of power is so great that
they feel It to be their sacred duty to
turn the rascals out" On the other
hand, the adherents of the party in
power are constantly being disappoint-
ed. They feel that they have not re-
ceived anything like the care and rec
ignition which was promised
Second. There is an inherent ebb
and flow of enthusiasm among the ad-
fTerents Of a political party. Naturally
tie nmher of years from f1ood-tide to
fiOod-tide of enthusiasm comedies with
The periodicfty Of the cause which once
in eight years falls in with 1t and car
ries 1t to the maximum height; namely,
the storm Of Indignation against the
high-handed partisan misrule of their
opponents.
u
Hopkins university, having thus point
ed out in detail that the election pen
dulum swings the mantle of supremacy
from party to party with mathematical
regularity, whenever there is no great
moral Issue between the political par
ties,-1 said: There is nothing surpris-
ing to the statistician in the Cleveland
vote. The Republican farmers have not
become Democrats" In 1893 / added,
and 1t is as true this year as It was
then: THE Democrats have not voted
the Republican ticket, but have merely
allowed the election to go by default"
To show the a.bsurdity of the Demo-
cratic claim that the Republican farm
ers had Joined their ranks and voted
for Cleveland in 1892, I analysed the
election returns town by town. through
out the rural districts Of New York.
and discovered that the rural vote for
Cleveland was even less in 1892 than in
1883 in every agricultural county of the
Empire state. In Ohio II was just the
same. Cleveland's vote was less in 1892
than in 1883 In the rural townships OF
all the agricultural counties.
Hence the only reasonable conclusion
Is that in 1892 the dissatisfied Republi-
can farmers. and on succeeding cleo
tons. the Disconnected Democratic la
borers have Joined the stay-at-home
voters, as is illustrated by the figures
already given.
Thus, II is the stay-at-home vote
which has made such phenomenal
gains. The immense Republican plu-
ralities this year are not the result Of a
large Republican vote. except in Mary
land; but Of an exceedingly small Dem
ocratic vote. In Pennsylvania, for in
stance, the Democrats have not polled
such small percentage Of the voting
strength OF the state for half a century.
The reason for this unusually small
Democratic vote is their bitter dissatis-
faction with the conduct OF the admins
tration and congress.
The causes which produce this dis
content are identical with the causes
which brought about the present finan-
cial crisis. Hence 1t may be proper to
quote a few words from what appears
over my signature in miscellaneous
senate document No. %. first session OF
the F'ifty-third congress, relative to
the cause Of the Industrial depression
In a word, the total net private in
deStedness Of the American people
aqualled in 1850 but $3.50. 900 coo: in
September, 1892. IL amounted TO sl9.-
io0. 600, 600 an increase Of ST.. 600. o00.-
300 in the short period Of twelve years"
In commenting upon these and the
following lines the St Louis Post said:
II these assertions are even approx
tyri9tely true il is not strange t71a1 bus
mess lansuishes and suffering prevails
IN them can be found the roots Of the
social question which peYplexes and
alarms every we'll wisher Of his coun-
Try"
The general discomfort and profound
Unrest produced and reinforced by such
potent economic forces has been with
aut doubt the chief cause Of the over
whelming defeat Of the party IN power