The sun., 1895-01-21

~ great product as asserted by
those most prominent in discrediting
official estimates-615 8, 900, 900 to 55O,0O0,-
900 bushels-supplies would still be most
abundant in the winter wheat regions
despite the feeding Of 90, ,000, 900 bushels or
more to animals. On the contrary, the
rapid depletion Of all stocks other than the
"visible" " is indicated by the difficulty ex-
perienced by country millers in securing
supplies, and by their willingness to pay
from to 1 s cents a bushel more than the
grain would bring were it shipped to the
central markets. These conditions, and the
substantial accuracy of the official estimate,
are emphasized by current receipts at all
the great centres. The receipts are now be-
low those following the very small crop Of
1890, and they promise to be much less for
the remainder of the season.
In many producing districts, notably west
Of the Mississippi, wheat changes hands
only as transferred by farmer to farmer for
feeding purposes; hence millers are forced,
in such districts, to resort to commercial
stocks in order to secure their supplies.
Aside from the consumption by animals,
which has been Offset by q harvest 64,-
000,0 bushels greater in 1894 than
in the preceding year, the meagre-
ness Of current receipts, as compared
with those Of a year ago, is attrib-
utable largely IL not wholly to the fact
that the harvest of 1898 was supplement
ed by immense stores Of wheat, in farm
granaries, carried over from the great crops
of 1891 and 1892. While the most of this
old wheat was marketed prior to July,
1894, yet it constituted a considerable part
Of farm deliveries through the earlier
months of the harvest year, 1S94-5; and it
led those not fully conversant with condi-
tions in the producing districts to credit
the 1894 harvest with greater yield than
was its DUE Thus has arisen q sembance
of abundance that did not exist. The abun-
dance of deliveries in the earlier part of the
harvest year, made up largely of this old
wheat, is the only warrant the professional
"expert" has for such excessive estimates
Of the last crop as have received wide cur
rency by his efforts.
1t is altogether probable that stocks out
side the visible" are now less than 80 per
cent. of the ACC, ,OOO, 900 bushels harvested
in 1894; but, assuming that they equal
that quantity or 13s, 100000 bushels, the
account with the 1894 crop would now as
sumo the following shape:
Farm and other private stocks, July 1,
1894 90, 600 600
Visible supply. July l, 1894 4........... b5,oO0o0o
Crop OF 1884 100000
Total available supply. .oe0 900 900
Bushels.
Used as bread seed up to Jan TO- 1895 eos 900
Exports July l. 1894, to jan TO- 1s95..... $1,000 900
Fed to animals. b0,000o 900
Farm and other private stocks. Jan. 1o. 100000
$4,000, 900
OF the visible" and farm and other
stocks, there probably remain some &c.,
600, 900 bushels to meet all requirements
during the six months which must inter-
vene before the product Of the harvest Of
1895 can be made available. Home require
ments for bread and spring seeding will
absorb from 1856, 100000 to 17O, 1000, 900
bushels, and from 10 ,OOO, 900 to 90, ,OOO, 900
bushels will yet be fed to animals, unless
the price Of corn shall fail to advance, as
does the price of wheat. In that case little
wheat will be fed. There does not ap-
pear to be very large quantity of
wheat available to constitute the unmar-
ketable reserve at the close of the harvest
year and meet foreign demands. This is
the unavoidable conclusion if the depart
ment's estimate is accepted, while the ex-
treme estimate Of the "crop experts" indi-
Gates large exportable surplus as still
available. Not until the years distribution
has been completed, however, can it be de-
termined whether official or expert" is
more astray; although everything known of
farm reserves indicates the sufficiency of the
official estimate.