New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1895-07-20
WHEAT
END OF THE CROP YEAR-THE THEORY or DE-
CREASED CONSUMPTION PROSPECTS
FOR THIS YEAR.

END OF THE CROP Wharf.-The THEORY OF DE-
CREASED CONSUMPTION PROSPECTS
FOR THIS YEAR.
To the Editor Of The Tribune.
Sir: The preliminary statement makes exports
OF wheat in June 1859 407 bushels against s.s2+323
last year and the total for the crop year. flour in
cluded was not quite 100000 bushels. nor the
decrease quite 2O0O0Oo0 bushels. as tried 10 say
a month ago when the types made me put the
decrease at 1000 900 bushels. The visible supply
ut the end Of the year was half a million bushels
larger than was expected. or 44.56l. 900 bushels.
and adding half az much for invisible but yet
available wheat the quantity carried over would
be ss.s4l. 800 bushels Mr. Thoman reckons that
there are still 1874 900 bushels In farmers hands
but obviously includes therein the minimum sup
ply never disturbed, which may be reckoned not
available lie. however. reconces figures by al
lowing n smaller consumption since Ma''h
than In generally allowed.
II Is not difficult TO make any estimate MT the
facts n we first assume the facts; and az no one
really knows what the yield was last year. II may
seem equally admissible to adopt new estimate
OF consumption or 10 adopt a different estimate
OF the crop Wheat statistics are and inevitably
must be largely hypothetical until the Depart
ment ceases "monkeying' with Its own returns In
the supposed interests OF farmers or SPECTATORS
or both But no evidence has yet been presented
which seems satisfactory 10 support the ny
pothesis that the consumption OF wheat, so long
maintained with surprising consistency. has sud
denly become widely variable. 1t IL proper to re-
member that for many years prior TO the Degin-
ming Of Farmers Alliance crop reporting the
official estimates OF yield each year. the OF
fcial estimates OF wheat in farmers hands IN
March. the census returns OF wheat produced the
Official returns OF exports and Imports each year.
the trade returns Of quantities In visible supply
and warehouse, and the course OF the markets
here and abroad. had all agreed so closely win
tho supposed consumption az food and FOR seed
that reasonable people regarded the correspond
ence conclusive demonstration OF the substantial
correctness OF estimates.
No one who fairly considers the mass OF mu-
tually supporting evidence. 1t seems to me. can
escape the conclusion that wheat consumption
continued with very slight variation for nearly
twenty years in good times and bad. To as
sumo that II has suddenly begun to vary more
than bushel per capita, as the Department
supposes even half bushel, as some others
suppose. would seem utterly untenable ana an
surd but for the single fact that Industries anu
wages and the public consumption OF some Other
articles were peculiarly depressed In 1898 ana
1894 Against this we have the other fact. that
prices were so low at 60 cents IN lS94-5 and DO
cents In 1894; that wheat had actually been re-
duced In cost more than the wages or earnings
OF the people, the recorded volume OF their
business. Even II the theory of reduced con-
sumption were tenable II could not logically be
applied during the last few months when bus-
ness and wages have been expanding but the
Department assumes small consumption for
the whole year. and Mr.. Thoman since March l..
because otherwise the figures would not Mt.
Until there appears evidence to support this
hypothesis. It seems more reasonable TO adhere
10 the natural presumption that the Demon
strsted experience Of twenty years has not been