The morning times., 1895-11-20
DONE BY STAY 1T HOMES
Statistician Waite So Analyses
the Recent Election.
SWING OF THE PENDULUM
He Shows Before the Statistical As
sociation That 1t Has Been Regu-
lar Deductions Made From the
Recent vote-InterestingP Paper on
Farm Ownership Read.

The National Statistical Association held
its regular monthly meeting last night at
the Columbian University. Routine busi-
ness was transacted and two important
papers were read.
Mr.. Frederick C. Waite, of the Agricul-
tural Department. read an analysis of re-
cent election statistics entitled The stay
at-home vote" He said in part:
Another tidal wave of disapproval has
been recorded at the polls. or the three
great parties in the field two have re-
ceived a very much smaller percentage of
the total vote than in former years, While
the third, the stay-at-home party, has made
most wonderful gains.
For instance, in Pennsylvania, the vote
OF the Democrats has fallen TO 2S2, 4S1
from 1865 in 1883, that OF the Repub-
licans to 1851 from 526,081 in 1888,
while the vote of the stay-at-home party
has increased to 610 900 from only 10000
In 1888.
"In estimating the total vote aliens,
foreigners with first papers, criminals,
paupers, ETC., have been deducted from
The male taXables, twenty-One years or
over. In New York the stay-at-home vote
has increa sed from 10, 900 in 1883 TO 1s5.-
900 in 1892, 425, 900 in 1894, and 51O 600
this year. Even In Kentucky it has in
creased from 5000 i'll 1888 to 100000
this year.
GREATEST IN MASSACHUSETTS
I'm Massachusetts, it has increased from
so, 900 in 1888 to 100 900 in 1892 and
230 900 this year. In Ohio, from 10000
In 1888 to 115, 900 in 1892 and to IS0 900
this year. The Increase in the stay-at-home
vote has been scarcely less marked in other
States.
g- l-.atr h.X ND nv n
the citizens of a continent express and
record their wishes, their hopes and their
discontents we must not expect to be able
TO comprehend the intricacy of its workings
except as we analyze the returns in the
| light OF half century or SO of election
statistics.
Turning to my statistical chart, com
| pairing the political complexion OF Amer
| ican elections, you see, that. during the
| last twenty years. and also me twenty years
| ending with the breaking up OF the Wing
| party, the Democrats carried every alter
| nate Presidential election, and yet were
always defeated at the Intervening Presi-
| Dental election.
In other words, TO the Democrats 1886
and '76 brought victories at the polls; 40
and 80, defeats; A and 81. victories; rs
and SO. defeats; '52 and '92, victories.
FACTORS OF DEFEAT.
In explanation of these phenomena 1
may say that the forces which, In presi-
Dental elections. result In the defeat OF
the party in power. are two
| First. The dissatisfaction with the
! party in power among the members OF the
| party out of power is so great that they
/ feel it 10 be their sacred duty to turn
] the raScals out" On the other hand.
the adherents of the party in power are
constantly being disappointed. They feel
| that they have not received anything like
| the care and recognition which was prom
ised.
Second There is IN inherent ebb and
| flow OF enthusiasm among the adherents
of a political party. Naturally the mum
ber OF years from flood-tide to flood-tide
OF enthusiasm coincides with the periodicity
| of the cause which once in eight years
| falls in with it and carries 1t to the ma xi
| mum height; namely, the storm of indig
nation against the handed partisan
misrule of their opponents.
"Thrce years ago, in lecture at Johns
HOPKINS University. having thus pointed
out in detail that the election pendulum
swings the mantle of supremacy from party
to party: with mathematical regularity
whenever there is 10 great moral issue
between the political parties. l said:
"'There is nothing surprising TO the
statistician in the Cleveland vote The
Republican farmers have not become Demo
Gratis, and in ISs3,' l added, and 1t Is
as true this year as it was then, the Demo
Gratis have not voted the Republican ticket
but have merely allowed the election te
go by default "
FARM OWNERSHIP.
Mr.. George X. Holmes, chief of the crnI
report section of the Agricultural pepaI'
ment who, as special agent of the Census
Office, had charge of the division nf farms
homes. and mortgages, read "A descrlp
ton of the owners of farms and homes, Will
respect to age and place nf birth.
In course uf his remarks Mr.. Holmes saiu
.'Since the war the negroes have hecuin'
the owners of farms to the extent or Il pc
cent. OF the negro farm prOpriethrs, IL
contrast with 72 per cent. for the whites
The negroes have been most successful IL
| acquiring the ownership uf farms among tn
high-priced acres of the East and anon:
the iow-priced acres of the South
.sOf the native white proprietnrs, 6s pc
cent. are owners, and the nations OF NJ
other country have So low percentage, ex
cept the Italians, for whom it is 6S pc
cont. All other foreigners in this cuuntr,
own their farms to a greater extent thal
the natives DO A.,
s.It is a surprising discovery that of tn
owners of farms Al per cent are at ieas
fifty years old and 23 per cent are a
least sixty years old The tinie OF III
when n man is most likely to mortgag
|
thirty-four years, and this is the TIME Q
life when he is most likely to become II
wner.
"A man must be from thirty to thirty
four wears old before the chances are eve
that he will own his o wn home.
: I'm the Southern States he cannot NV
: long enough to find the chances even ina
ha will cease to be tenant, the negroe
| being In GUIDED.
1.-The delaying of home purchase to sue
a late time of life is on account OF aosolut
poverty, on account of poverty that
relative to land and building values, on az
count of a rising standard OF living,
insufficient earnings and of the uncertain
ties of the future under system una
; makes dependent wage earners out G
tvo-;hirds of the workers of the country.
Col. weston Flint was elected secretar
tosucceed Mr.. W. NJ. Stewart, who tendere
his resignation at the last meeting.
Dr. W. T. Harris, commissioner OF edl
t cation, will address the next meeting {
the association.