New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1895-02-01
FIVE-CENT COTTON.
A REcolL FROM ovERPRoDUcTIoN.

An EXPERTS OPINION IN GALvEsToN-GRoUNps
FOR EXPECTING A REDUCED ACREAGE THIS
Observation-Disclosures OF CROPS
THE HOPE OF THE FUTURE.
lyrox A STAFF corxsspospxNr OF TIE TniyrEEl
The overproduction Of cotton has caused the
most disastrous crisis with which Southern ag-
riculture has been confronted since the war. The
planters OF Texas are largely responsible for
the low prices which have rendered the chief
industry Of ten States Improbable. The vast In
crease CT their crop was the main factor in Mr.
NeIlrs original estimate OF 10.250,0o0 bales FOR
the season Of 1894. which operators even more
bearish than himself have raised 100000 bales or
more An ambition TO convert Texas into the
greatest cotton State In the Union has degener-
ated into a mania for planting cotton without
reference to the adaptability OF the soil or the
probable margin Of profit The crop east OF the
Mississippi has not been abnormaily large. but
through overproduc;ion west of the river and
especially in Texas, the price is the lowest ever
known. and below the level OF remunerative in
dustry.
Julius Runge. president Of the Galveston Cot
ton Exchange declares that the South is impov-
erished by improbable agriculture. Texas had
q crop Of 100000 bales In 1894 the largest ever
raised, but there was never poorer trade IN the
State, never less merchandise sold. The gen.
erai decline OF business in the State Ia regarded
by this competent expert as an unerrng indication
that cotton at cents has purchasing power
and that there Is profit in II for the planter
He asserts that cotton cost 10 cents In 1874 cents
IN 1873 cents in 1887 and cannot be pro-
duced probably for less than cents to-day.
When l quoted the opinion Of cotton brokers in
cost of production was AZ cents. he explained
that 1t was estimate obtained from planta-
tions Of 1000 acres. where cotton was raised on
Q large scale, under the most favorable cond-
lions. No rate as low as AZ cents could be OBJ
tained on any system Of averages for the planters
of a large section. Cotton could not be raised
ordinarily for cents. not even in Texas. where
fertilizers were not required. Our crop here"
said Mr.. Runge, was worth 100000 in 1892,
and not more than $67000.000 in 1894. The fact
that mercantile business is poor. and that there
= comparatively little general merchandise
bought In the State. proves that 1t is an un-
profitable crop at present prices"
This estimate Of cents the average cost
Of production obtained in a section Of tie
cotton belt where the most fertile land IL to be
found and where the agrarian conditions are
most favorable for economic farming Taxes are
light In Texas: good land Is cheap: the majority
of planters own their own farms; the tenant class
Is much smaller than in Mississippi Alabama,
Georgia and the Carolinas, and merchants do not
advance as much money to planters as in other
portions OF the cotton belt. With the soil rich
enough to yield good crop without the use Of
commercial fertilizers and with the farming
population released to a large degree from de-
psndence upon the merchants. the cost OF cotton
he nd fodl ic in Teya
than In the other Southern States Yet Mr..
Runge and his colleagues Of the Galveston Cot
ton Exchange are most emphatic In declaring
that cotton planting is improbable under exist
ing conditions and that the cost Of production
cannot be materially lowered. They have
strongly recommended a reduction OF cotton
acreage and systematic diversifcation of crops;
but they seem to have little confidence in the
capacity of the Texas farmers for following
good advice. Mr. Runge frankly admitted that
the next seasons crop in that State would prob
ably be as large as that Of the last year. If the
weather were equally favorable. While many
planters would lessen their production there was
q great immigration movement. and the new
corners would be certain TO raise cotton. While
nothing could be palmer than the urgent neces-
sity Of placing less dependence upon cotton
planting, the lessons of experience were slowly
Texas planters offered strong temptation for
the maintenance of the industry a large scale
to the disadvantage Of less favored sections Of
the cotton belt
While there may not be any material
reduction OF cotton-plantng in Texas as
the immediate effect Of exceptionally low
prices there will undoubtedly be a
shrinkage Of production in the cotton belt east
Of the Mississippi That Is the opinion Of a
majority of merchants in the exchanges OF
Charleston, Atlanta, Savannah. Montgomery.
Memphis, New-Orleans and Galveston. as have
ascertaned by panstaklng investigation. This
judgment Is not affected by the continuance OF
the bear raids in the New-York Cotton Ex-
change. nor by the elastic calculations Of Mr.
Nen in New-Oreans nor by the Liverpool
quotations Of cotton futures tending to force
down prices for October. 1885, to or 3la cents
to planters In interior parts Of the South on
the basis OF new crop equal to that Of last
season. Southern merchants and planters do not
believe that the next seasons crop will be as
large as that of 1884. and consequently they ex-
pect that the price will rise. Their reasons may
be briefly summarized
l. Experience has shown that an exceptionally
large crop with fall in price is invariably fol
lowed by a smaller crop the next year. This IL
the natural result of overproduction An agr
cultural business that Is overdone one year !.
underdone the next seasor The effect Of over
production ought to be more noticeable when the
decline In price has been sharper than has evel
before been known. The production OF cottor
was doubled between 1850 and 1880 yet the price
Of the staple declined only cent pound. During
the last decade there has been a drop OF or II
cents. The fall in price during the last year car
hardly fail TO reduce cotton acreage on large
scale.
g. Production will be c'-rtai!ed through les'
intensive cultivation Of the cotton fields The US
Of phosphatcs and commercial fertilizers will b
discontinued by thousands Of tenant farmers
who are not In q position to contract guant
debts and who will try to make crop with
aco nj supnIv ~ IA rm nanurea This DrOcegs o.