Middlebury register. (Middlebury, Vt.) 1886-1937, 1895-10-04


ton of the state of the cotton industry
in Lancashire-an industry giving en-
ployment to hundreds of thousands of
people and furnishing very large pro-
portion of our entire foreign trade.
Many attempts are made to prove that
the contraction of our trade with silver
countries and the extension of manufac-
lures there. have little or nothing to do
with the depreciation in silver. A few
months ago DR.. Giflen, of the board of
trade, compiled report on the progress
of the foreign trade of the United King
dom in recent years. There he showed
that In lSSl-5 goods from this country
constituted % per cent of the whole I'M
ports of China. whereas in 1S90-1-2 our
proportion fell to 81 per cent. In the
case of Japan the fall was from 10 to 81
per cent. Ii was agreeable to discover
that we had not lost ground to our
European competitors in these markets,
but there were other features less well
come. at should be remarked wrote
DR.. Glffnn. "that the chief increase in
the relative proportion of the imports
into Japan has gone TO the COrea. TO
India and to other minor countries which
are geographically much nearer than
ourselves. This explanation struck DR..
Gifien as so happy and fOrcble that he
repeated it. But it may fairly be asked
if these other countries have in the last
seven years become geographically nearer
Japan than they were before? If there
has been a change in the distribution of
Eastern trade, we should surely look for
an explanation to those conditions which
have altered and not to those which are
immutable. 1t is childish to assume that
Eastern peoples have only awakened
within the last few years to the con-
seriousness that they are nearer one an
other than to Europe. What they have
become alive to is the existence of the
barrier of exchange between them and
Europe. If DR.. Citizens ingenious
principle were carried to its legitimate
conclusion, it would follow that the re-
duction in trade between India and
Japan during the last fifteen mouths was
due to an enlargement of the geographical
distance between them and not to the crea-
ton of a new monetary standard in India.
The immediate shrnkage in Indian exports
to China and Japan which followed the
monetary change of June, lS93-to
which the Indian trade returns and the
Consular Reports from the far East bear
concurrent testimOny-allOrdS unequivO-
cal proof that commerce is more rapidly
and seriously Influenced by exchange
than by tariffs or geographical situa-
ton. Yet while our Industries are lam
gushing and our exports contracting,
| the official statisticians entertair us with
the shbholeths of an eilete and exploded
school of economic thought 1t is no
pleasure TO any one to dwell on the de-
cav of British commerce with any por
ton of the globe, but it is a duty to
recognise facts. however hard, to en-
{ do tn I'm thn nd
possible to prescribe remedy. SO long
as we are content to accept the fallacy
that geography and distance are the de-
terminng factors In the distribution of
trade between nations we shall have to
90 on deploring the steady decadence of
our commercial pre-eminence, perhaps
even of our Industrial existence.
The scheme of this paper requires that
the disastrous effect on our trade of the
fall in silver should be examined from
two points of view: td) when there has
been, through the appreciation of gold, IA
rise in the silver price of our goods and
(b) when there has been a fall i'm the
gold price of them. 1t is rather difficult
to maintain the distinction between the
two sets of circumstances but examples
of both have been given in the course of
this paper have produced evidence
from Chinese reports and statistics TO
show that when in 1893 Lancashire eX-
porters endeavoured to raise their price
lists. the consumption of their manufac-
lures at once declined The evidence
from Mexico is to precisely the same
effect. The Board of Trade returns for
the first six months of the present year
confirm tie view of our consuls. In the
first six months of 1892 the average value
of cotton piece goods. shipped to Mexico.
was 80 pence per ward. and the exports
were fairly large. In 1893 the average
value rose fraclionallv to 2.G7 pence per
ward, and there was Il decrease of three
million wards i'm The shipments to
Mexico. I'm the frsc half of this year
the average value ncr ward mt export had
fallen to $50 pence. and the shipments
rose - million wards. Thus. whenever
the gold price was raised and conse-
quentlv the silver equivalent. there was
"A sharp decline in our cotton piece goods
trade with Mexico: whenever Lancashire
conceded lower prices "A recovery took
place. have already given the result of
similar calculations in the case of China.
I ~ I