Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1895-08-30

have been for years taking our measure
ments at the bottom of this great ocean Of
air, while the forces which cause the forma-
ton Of storms and which influence their
intensity and direction Of motion operate
at great elevations, or are extraneous to
our earth.
Necessity for Upper Air Exploration.
1T therefore seems imperative that sys-
tematic exploration should be made of the
upper air. Balloon ascensions should be
made in the several quadrants Of the cy-
clonic storm and also at the center thereof;
especially when rain Is falling and the
barometric gradient is steep.
It Is especially important to know the
level at which condensation ceases, the
depth of the cloud stratum, the tempera-
ture gradient, the air pressure and humid
ity to a height of four or five miles. Skill
ed aeronauts, with complete and accurate
Instruments, should be placed in the region
of severest action at the season of the year
when storms are most frequent. They
should be held in readiness until the ap-
proach of storms typical of cycicnic action
and then from the central office, where the
movement Of the storm Is being carefully
watched on the daily synoptic chart, they
should be given Geographic orders to as
cend and their ascensions should be SO
timed as to secure accurate readings at
great elevations throughout the several
quarters of the storm. 1t is believed that
Information so secured will establish some
lHluS ike an approach 10 the true phil
osophy Of storms in contradistinction to
the very imperfect III aories which too often
are hastily approved as demonstrated prin-
ciples.
has been written by men not daily engaged
in watching their inception and progress
sion. Instead of erecting cumbersome
superstructure upon the sand. let us en-
deavor to lay corner stone upon which
to erect something exact enough to be call
ed science.
I'm winter the great high pressure areas
which constitute our cold waves should
receive the same thorough exploration.
Readings at Pixies Peak or Mt. Rainier
might be useful in this investigation, but
they are too far removed from the general
track of storms and cold waves to furnish
the full information desired.
How the Desire May Be Accomplished.
"Upper-air exploration may be accom-
plished by train of kites carrying auto
matte instruments, by captive kite-balloons,
which may be forced nearer and nearer the
zenith with increasing wind velocity, or
by the ascension of trained observers in
free balloons. We must strive for the per-
lection Of appliances and instruments which
will, at no distant day, enable us to pre-
sent to the forecaster the charted synchron-
Gus meteorological conditions prevailing at
high levels and covering a great area. Mr..
McAdie, at Washington, has secured
Gently some good records with kites at
600 to 1000 feet elevation.
Systemat tic exploration of the upper air
with continuation of studies began by
Prof. Bigelow, of terrestrial magnetic forces
as induced by the solar magnetic field, will
be the line of investigation prosecuted dur
ing the next two years, and from which, It
is hoped, results satisfactory to the
practical, as well as the theoretical man,
may be obtained.
THE honorable Secretary of Agriculture
Is in thorough sympathy with all lines Of
research Which can be legally carried on
under the act Of Congress constituting the
give results useful to the people.
The Essentials of Success.
Harmonious cooperation between the
practical worker and the scientific investi-
gator Is essential to success. Too often
they may have found themselves picking
cut diverging thoroughfares. In the future
they will work on parallel and converging
lines and not far removed from each other,
and the result, am confident, will be ben
efcfal to ALL In great system like ours
each worker must be justly recognized for
the merit that is in him, whether he be
skilled scientist or an able executive. ard
he should be given his proper place as an
integral part of the great whole which
the efficient bureau.
"A brief retrospect of the forecast may
rot be without compensating results in our
Forecasts were begun in the United
States about twenty-five years ago, and
have, during the past decade, become Of
such benefit to the many and diversified
interests OF the country that with one ac-
cord they now acknowledge their value
and applaud all efforts to improve and ex-
tend their usefulness. Fifty million dollars
Is low estimate of the value of property
placed in jeopardy by one West Indian
hurricane sweeping up our Atlantic coast.
cold prOl,s, RecaIa1
Predictions were first called 'probabili-
ties and were made for districts, each
several states, and included a
prediction as to the probable change in
barometer. Later the predictions as to
barometer were omitted. Forecasting by
districts was soon shown not to be specific
enough as to boundary, and the designa-
tons applied were not well understood by
the people; hence, forecasting by states
was adopted.
Forecasts were made only at the central
office at Washington, and the local OBJ
servers were allowed to disseminate no
other, or to give public expression to any
opinion Of their own which might be con-
strued into a forecast. Considering the
very limited training of the observers and
the lack of all charted meteorological con-
dition for their study and enlightenment,
the wisdom of the regulation then hardly
could be Questioned.
important una ShdnSes.
with the transfer of the weather bureau
to the Department of Agriculture came the
of far more liberal and pro-
gressive ideas. The Office of local forecast
official was created for such observers as
had shown special fitness for forecast
work. and they were assigned to duty at
the more important agricultural, CONNER
cial or maritime centerS, with instructions
to carefully study the local china tology of
their sections, so that interests or products
which were Indigenous to limited areas, or
which were of special Importance to par
ticular sections. might have such applica-
ton Of the weather forecasts as the init
mate personal attentions of a competent
local official could give.
THE changes enumerated have been care
fully tested, and found to be benefcent in
purpose and worthy of continued and per-
manent application. Thus has the fore
casting system of today slowly developed
during the past twenty-five years. Is It
rot the essential feature Of the weather
bureau? Is it not the nucleus around
which all departments Of thought and
study must rotate and become auxiliary, If
the original intent of Congress, made man
fest by the establishment of a national
warming ha carriaI I'd