Waterbury evening Democrat., 1895-02-09

partmentS latest adviccS from Australia indicate that whcatgrowers there have about given up the idea of competing with Argentine. l soon found, however, that tho world < demands arc very certain to far outgrow Argcntinc'S capacity, and after digesting all the tables down to the first of this year I went again to the agr!- cultural department. They gave me a room 10 myself, with all the reports for ten years and an analysis of their system, the latest letters from our consulS abroad and tho services of an expert clerk to OK plain everything, and 1 went at the mass determined to understand the subject or perish in the attempt.
 had no difficulty in locating the main trouble. Tho source of it was in tho tru- ly phenomenal crops of lS912. Tho de partmcnt t~!rr raised its estimates and still had tl:rE by far too low. Starting with l, ,0Ou, uu0, QUO bushels of wheat in round nuInlr rS for the two crops, it raised them to l.l-S 0O0, ,OUU bushels, but the trade muvvuvnt showed the yield to be larger still and it is now suggested by some experts that the crops of those two years may have reached tEC truly amazing aggregutc of l. 500, OUO, OUU bushels. Those two years will long rank in history as years when thr earth literally brought forth by handfulS,' as in .TOscph'S time in Egypt, and in less enlightened age miracle would havC been called in t0 ex- plain them and myths and legends have multiplied. As an immense amount had been carried over from lSS99o it really seems a. the American farmer had tho task of rl. sing in two years of nearly 1. .350. GOO "Ou ~Qshels of wheat. Cautious experts W, uld y. Eo the amount only 100, GOO, 900 less. A. Ae outside estimates for. -1-n 1lO, 0O0, 900 bushels and the exports ac- count for but H., ,OOO, OOO bushels, it is evident that considerably over 200 OOU 900 bushels wCrc left 10 cmbarrass the market for the tive subsequent years.
 Difficulties of Estimating.
 It is this surplus which our farmers have been kicking before them from wear to year IL has vitiatcd all subs, qucnt calculations and thus tho trade movement every year shows moro grain than the de partmCnt estimates. Of course this can not last, and this year tho two arc likely to como out even. As the department had greatly undcrC>timatcd the two surprise crops. it Is open to its enemies to charge that it is in the habit oi understanding. and as tho crop reports arc made up about the time that Wall street wants to boom railroad stocks, dividends depending on the grain tn bo transported, and Chicago spcculatOrs want to dcprCss the market, there is fine opening for a war of cx- pCrts. Another and n very curious diff culty is that in some staples the local rC ports habitually overestimate and in others grossly underestimate. Thus, in looking over tho tobacco reports, found that for several years while this work was only bureau business the producers counted down so much faster than the statistician could count up that the reports became ut tcrly worthless, and a delegation of the trade called on him and demonstrated wig OrOusly.
 He read them a reply which is 6 curious compound of apology and defiance, and in it Is this interesting statCIIont: In previous year tho assessors in kentucky, officials sworn to return the exact amount for taxation, put the aggregate so low that he raised it and excited their wrath. but the actual sales showed it to be B per cent greater than their assessment. Mir. J. k. Dodge then statistiCian, was so saVagely attacked by various papers and interests that for three years there were practically no full reports except on corn. wheat and oats. He had been in the office n quarter of n century, but went out with the Harrison administration. We have the word of himself and his assistant, MT. B. w. Snow, that they had done splendid for the government, from which suppose that they concluded that they could do still better for themselves, and having the gov ernment system down pretty f1ne they got up bureau of thoir own. The tobacco men have abatcd mono of their hostility to Mr Dodge, and ns he has recently criticised the tobacco reports of the department a sarcastic Kentuckian wants to know if his hostility dates back to that interview in 1887, when, says this member, we over hauled him So vigorously
 Sources of Error.
 This is given as an illustration of the hostility between the bulls and bears, and of course the same parties charge that Mir. Snow fell into the hands of tho Chicago Ipeculators interested in depressing the market, while tho other side charges the | department with all sorts of perversiOns in tho interest of the bulls. Ono thing is certain-there is n regular discrepancy, the syndicate of papers taking the Snow es- inmates always putting the crop much higher than does the department. It is further certain that the trade movement did for some years show much larger crop than the department estimates, tine excess being 4f 0O0, GOO bushels in 1890, 63, 900, 900 in 1891, 34, O0O, 900 in 1899 and | 64, GOO, coo in lS93; but, as aforesaid, the l indications now are that tho dead weight left over from the surprise years" is pret- ! ty well worked ClI. and that this year the trade movement will justify the depart | ment. A single item will s.Iuw tho drift ! of tho evidence. On Jan. l9 tho big cle | vator firm of the northwest, which has i0n | elevators on tho Chicago and Northwest ern railroad and branches between. the