The San Francisco call., 1895-11-03
Clash of Conflicting Factions En-
dangers the Existence of
the Republic.
DISGUST OF THE GREAT ARMY
Troubles of Other Nations Also Re.
viewed in Graphic Style by
Harold Frederic.
copyright, 1895, by the New York Times.I

LONDON, Eng, Nov. 3.-France has
had abundant occasions for quarrel with
its Parliamentary servants during the last
quarter of q century, but there seems to be
q general disposition in Paris to agree that
this time they have done her decidedly
the worst turn yet recorded. 1 received
from public man of distinction there the
laconic message to-day that in all proba-
bility the Bourgeois Ministry will not live
through the coming week, and that this
is the only good thing that can possibly be
said about it or about the political situa-
ton in France.
Others not less impartial or well in
formed add that it marks definitely the be-
ginning of the end of the republic. This
beginning of the end has been heralded so
often before that skepticism is more than
excusable now, but there are certain novel
aspects in this new combination which de-
serve notice.
1t is the first Ministry yet gazetted in
France which cannot expect maj jority in
the Chamber of Deputies without the aid
of the Socialists, and cannot look for a
majority in the Senate at all. Further
more, it deliberately affronts both the
navy and army by turning them over to
two Ministers whom they have publicly
denounced as enemies of the service. In
the case of Cavaignac of the War Office
this becomes peculiarly grave. Ever since
the beginning of the year, when this am
bilious "Poseur" failed to be considered
seriously as a Presidential candidate, he
has been concentrating his energies on in
cessant demands for army reform, and ex-
hibiting himself as the chief critic of mill
tary abuses. Very likely abuses exist, but
that is of secondary Importance compared
with the fact that every general in the
army, and, for that matter, the whole
force of officers, regards Cavaignac with
active enmity and outspoken contempt.
They may be wrong, but that is the way
they feel, and they are not hesitating now TO
say publicly that the army will not tolerate
him as even its nominal head. This is ex-
tremely serious. The army is tremen-
dous factor in French affairs and it is a
commonplace of politics that if the army
ever become hostile to the republican idea
the republic would disappear over night
Boulanger climbed to the dizzy height
he attained simply on the theory that the
army was behind him. When it was re-
vealed that he really had no backing
among the important officers he dropped
Immediately. But these important officers
are now precisely the ones who are display
ing the greatest rancor about Cavaignac,
and if it were not so probable that he will
90 out of power almost before he gets in
there would be a genuine menace in their
attitude.
Even as it is, it is felt that the wind
hoo cfi In, ha
army may not be easily stilled. And what
is to be said of the spectacle of Hanoteux,
who was not in the Parliament at all. and
who held in trained hands all the myriad
threads OF complicated diplomacy involv-
ing the peace of the world, being jumped
out of Office by a casual vote on an abstract
railroad question. To do them justice the
French editors admit without exception
that it is supremely silly. Everybody, ex-
cept one little group of colonial extremists,
to whom Cavaignac has been paying assid-
uous court, desired Hanoteux to remain at
the Foreign Office. There most of his life
has been spent, all his tastes and ambitions
are centered, and he would have gladly re-
manned on the condition that his work in
Madagascar would be supported by the
Ministry.
He had arranged for a protectorate
scheme which would not have come into
conflict with the treaty rights that Eng
land, America and other countries have in
Madagascar, and he tried to explain that it
was impossible to ignore these without pre-
cipitating misunderstanding, perhaps
ruptures in foreign relations. Cavaignac
made himself the spokesman of a crowd
which declined to bother about these treat
les at all and insisted on fatfooted annex
alton with a standing colonial army to
conquer the whole island and hurl de.
fiance to all outside nations. Hanotaux
shrugged his shoulders and withdrew, and
the Foreign Office, after being hawked about
for four days, was declined on all sides and
turned over to a chemical expert in coal
tar products, who is principally known by
Renan's bitter gibe at his restless passion
for Office, which took the form of an epitaph
"Here lies Berthelot in the only place that
is never coveted"
Much space could be given to the vary.
ing phases of this transformation scene, in
which the Radicals, who will not let any
one else rule, are momentarily on the stage
TO illustrate their own inability to govern
1t seems most likely that after brief sea-
son of parliamentary chaos there will be
dissolution, and possibly constitutional
crisis out of which anything may emerge,
but 1t happens for once that a political
convulsion in France comes at time when
it can only take its place as one among
numerous world-important subjects OF
concern.
Such diplomatic denials as Russia has
given to the London Times Port Arthur
story do not at all allay the general belief
that in its essentials it is true. Similarly
the jIgglery by which it is sought to
ascribe the anti-English attack in the st.
Petersbu- Official Messenger to a misun-
derstanding or to conspiracy of bears to
break the Continental bourses, in nowise