New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1894-09-03
UOpECTL OUTLOOK.

II Is not surprising that business men in every
department are anxious to encourage each o'her'
and II possible to stimulate larger TRANSACTIONS
There is every disposition on the part OF the
newspapers TO help them. and all the unwelcolne
svmntoms which appear are. as II by unanimous
consent ignored or treated lightly. This Is only
natural but 1t Is the part Of good sense 10
strengthen confidence as far as one can and re-
cent events indicate that the country may Win
reason look for some months Of fairly active
business For this there are some reasons winch
are not generally appreciated.
First Of all there Is the need OF replehiShihen'
of stocks, which have been reduced during Tue
past year as they have hardly ever been re-
ducpd before. because Of the prolonged uicer
taInty In regard to the tariff. which has pre-
vented dealers from purchasing. but has not 10
the same extent prevented purchases for con
sumption. If it is rcckoned that about SloOOo'
OOO.OOO may represent the aggregate e1pehu-
lures yearly and S2.5OO.OOO,OOO may approx
mately represent the lost or deferred trace
during the past year, 1t Is easy TO Del'eVe
that as much as 40 per cent OF that deferred
trade. or $1.OOO.O00.OOO. may be added to the
volume OF business for the remaining months
Of this year on that account. As the natural
volume Of trade during third OF the year would
be about $3,3OOOOOOO, there will be slill'
cpnt advance on the above superstition to make
business actually larger than In times OF normal
prosperity.
II is also true that the domestic industries Will
not feel the full effect OF the new foreign com
petition under the tariff recently adopted Tor
ssmc months to come Az 10 woollen goods the
new tariff will not take effect until the first OF
January But In other departments The domestic
traders do not yet know what prices they nave
10 meet from foreign competitors. Neither ~
the foreigners themselves know yet what
prices they may be compelled or can afford 10
make In the American market Desperate 81
forts will be made on both sides To secure Inc
bulk OF the trade and these are likely 10 con
tjnue FOR many months. There will he serious
losses. not exclusively, 1t may be hoped Oh the
mart Of the domestic producers for Ii will prob
ahly be- found that IN some important branches
of trade. they are able 10 meet and defeat for
eign competition 10 an extent quite unexpected
by their rivals. But the prices offered 10 CON
suncrs will b- much lower than usual. aud there
is reason 10 expect that the purchases for co''-
SUMPTION may on that account he somewhat
larger.
The manufacturers themselves are also large
purchasers, particularly Of the materials used
la their manufacture. and they are likely At THIS
time 10 accumulate stock. Prices Of nearly all
materials are relatively low. aud the manufaci-
ur-rs may naturally take In larger stocks than
usual TO prepare themselves for The business
which all hope 10 secure Some VI them without
doubt may find 1t impossible 10 dispose OF as
large a quantity OF products as they anticipate.
and 80 they viii be left with stocks OF material
| On hand for Use In coming years. None the less
their purchases " the material VIII for the time
CRATE greater activity In business. During Tie
past few weeks the manufacturers have elm
Uraced the opportunity 10 take Ia large quaint
ties Of wool. which many believe Will advance
ia price In foreign markets on account OF the
new American demand. These purchases have
caused Il considerable advance here. which may
| or NAV not be maintained. but FOR the time they
| have produced marked Increase In the volume
| Of transactions. In like innuner The materials
| required In other branches Of manufacture VIII
be purchased quite largely, on account Of the
! low prices prevailing. and the volume Of trade
| will in this way be considerably Increased,
| although I'm some case; the manufacturers viii
| not be able correspondIngly 10 Increase their
sales.
u is a good time for determined and rrsoluc
| efforts and for n reasonable and prudent con
fdcncc The situation does not encourae" ANY
crazy boom IN prices, or any Wild and venture
some expansion Of production. But 1t warrants
! a most earnest effort The part Of American
/ producers in each department Of Industry AMI
| trade 10 compete as best they can under the
new conditions which the tariff gives them,
| and II some fail In the effort. II is only reason
able to expect that many will achieve uncx
| pected success