The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1894-11-13
NEILL'SESTINATE TOO HIGH.
ShGppcrSOn Points Out Weak Points in
lis Basis.

The Acreage This Year Nearly SOC, 900
Less Than in 1890, When the Phenom-
enally Big Crop of e,2oo, 900 Bales
Was Raised-The Crop Conditions
This Year No Better Than in 1890.
Spectators the Ones Who win Reap
the Benefit of ANY Rise in Price.
Chareston, S. c. Nov. l2-With a view
of finding out just how much credit was
to be given to the recently published state
ment Of the present cotton crop of 10-
100000 bales, and to put before it's readers
a trustworthy and intelligent statement
of the cotton situation at the present
time, the News and Courier applied to
Alfred B. Shepperson of New York, the
well known cotton statistician, and has
received the following very lucid and sat
isfactory reply:
New York, Nov. S, 1S94-Cotton has de-
clined again to-day, chiefly, / understand,
upon a crop estimate just issued by Mr.
Neill of New Orleans, that the crop will
be over 100000 OF bales The crop is
undoubtedly a. large one but [ confess
that am unable to see any basis for such
a large estimate. The largest crop ever
grown in this country was that which was
planted in 1880. The yield of that crop
was probably 100000 bales The CONNER
cial crop of that season was S,674, 900 bales,
and the difference between this and the
quantity which have given as the prob
able yield was marketed in the following
season
There is no evidence whatever to prove
that the acreage Of the crop now being
m1Tkatp1 IA no tot Q
croq of lS90-9l, nor is there any evidence,
to my mind at least, that the weather
conditions have been more favorable this
year than in 1890, l am at a loss, there
fore, to understand to what cause or
causes can be reasonably attributed a
yield so much in excess of the monster
crop Of 1890.
The acreage in 1890 was about q, 800 900
acres, and ! do not think any one has
claimed or will claim that IL was any
more this year. The department of agri-
culture has been making, since Feb. /,
careful investigation of the question Of
the cotton acreage, and has employed q
special agent for the purpose, who has
Travelled throughout the south and has
investigated the matter as l am informed
in the most thorough manner possible.
The acting secretary OF agriculture wrote
me on Oct. that the result of the inVes-
ugatton was that the acreage in 1898
III
small increase in acreage this year over
1893, the Departmental agriculture call
ing the increase less than / per cent, so
that the acreage Of the crop now coming
in is, according to the department of ag-
riculture's estimate, about l9,650,000 acres
Let us assume that the department has
underestimated Il somewhat and that the
acreage is as much as 20000,000 acres.
This, as you will see, is 100000 acres less
than in 1880, and yet we are asked to be-
lieve that upon an acreage Of 100000 acres
less than in 1880 a crop Of 10000 600 bales
that has been grown / am not prepared
to accept such conclusion, because It is
utterly repugnant to reason and common
sense.
At these low prices. or anything like
them, the tendency viii be to largely
increased consumption of cotton every
where, and there will evidently be upon
the part of splnners a general disposi-
ton to buy cotton greatly in excess of
their wants for the season, because at
these prices they can well afford to
carry in the mill warehouses a large sup
ply of cotton into the next season.
There can be no question that unless
the price advances very greatly by the
time for planting the next crop that the
acreage devoted to cotton viii be reduced
to an extent that II has never been cur
tailed before, from one year to another
So great a reduction in acreage would
cause beyond doubt an advance as great
and as rapid as the decline has been.
When preparations were made for plant
ing this crop middling cotton was worth
8 cents in New York, and should there be
great reduction of acreage this spring
it will be very likely TO go to cents
again soon after the next crop is planted,
and the world recognizes the fact beyond
dispute that the acreage has been, and
consequently that the supply of cotton
will be greatly reduced
j sympathize deeply with the southern
people because Of the great depression
which has overtaken their staple crop,
and from the manner in which cotton is
being rushed to market it looks to me
as II when the advance in cotton comes
It will not benefit the planters because
they will have sold all of their crop,
and that the spinners and spectators
alone will reap the benefit Of the tardy
advance. Yours very truly,
Alf. 3. Shepperson.
RESUMPTION OF THE REFINERIEs