The morning call., 1894-08-10
WEATHER POSERS.
How Prophet Pague Won
His Record.
What the Pacific Coast Bureau
WantS-A Talk With Fore
caster Harmon.

w. Il. Harmon. the local weather prophet
is very enthusiastic over the competitive ex-
animation which is taking place in Washington
TO find which Of six weather forecast officials
can pTOphesy best what day will bring forth
10 the matter Of weather.
secretary Morton has 4 perfect right to
MAKE the appointments arbitrarily if he chooses"
said the local tOreeaster yesterday. ut is his
zeal for the service that makes him apply the
lest of competitatiYe examinations. just
year ago similar examination was held in
Washington. which was open to anybody.
When l say open 10 anybody mean that all
were at liberty 10 write an essay on the subject
aud the writer's of the ten best essays became
the final connections. Twelve and one-half
PER cent of marks were awarded for the essay,
1212 for an examination Ia meteroogS, and
the remaining seVenty-fYe marks were given
for weather forecasling.
THE result proved a tie between W. L.
Moore OF Milwaukee and myself. In the final
notwithstanding tournament, however. Mr..
Moore came out ahead, but believe II was
owing TO The examination that received the
professOrsbip here last winter. The examina-
ton for thes general weather forecast officials
now going on In Washington is being conducted
on the same plan except that no one outside
the service can compete"
How il came TO pass that B. S. Pague, the
Portland prophet whose misguided weather
predictions confused San Francisco all last
spring bears the prOudest record OF all the
Harmon could not explain. "Ibere is no
denying" he observed after a pause for reiec-
ton, "that IL is more easy TO predict on his coast
because of the uniformity OF the conditions.
Now for the last month any one who had pre-
dicted fine weather every morning would have
made record Of 100 per cent.
"Of course. That does not apply so thoroughly
in winter as in summer, and the changes that
do lake place are very difficult TO predict. Still.
in the East changes are taking place all The
time"
I'm
than in California ?" was asked.
.'Perbaps lt is q little" replied Mr.. Ham
mon. Then he consulted ponderous volume
and after making some rapid calculations an
noupced thar in the year 1891 the weather
forecast for Oregon had been correct 81 40
per cent, for Northern California 80 2-lo, and
for Southern California 81 $40 He also stated
that in 1891 the average percentage OF correct
nTophesyiny all over. the United States was
SO 40 per cent "It's TO be expected that
man would make be ter record here than in
land" concluded the professor, as ne closed his
volume OF statistics.
When asked whether, apart from the uni
formity Of the conditions, IL Is easier TO pre-
dict the Pacific Coast weather upon purely
scientific basis than 1t is inland or on the AT
lantic Coas the local weather prophet replled
with an emphatic affirmative.
1.-The difficulties are very great here Tor DONG
that" he answered, because we have no H.
formation at all from one side, and that the
most important one. A weather station at the
extreme point Of Vancouver would be practi-
cable and 1t would b. Invaluable to the SER
vice. as atmospheric disturbances could be tel
egraphed ahead from there. A station at the
Aleutian Islands, however would be thou
SAND times more valuable. as it is safe to say
almost all the storms that reach us come down
that course. Some time or other, think. from
q purely commercial point of view, it will be
Iound TO pay TO have a station there TO give
timely information of coming storms"
The professor then spoke Iegretfully of a
telegraph that IN 1S61-62 had been carried
almost 10 Alask. at went 800 miles north OF
the Canadian border. but only three or four
hundred miles of il are in use nowu he OBJ
served req etfully. "They intended 10 take il
across 10 Asia, but dropped it right there when
thr Atlantic cable was opened. IL was very
unfortunate for the Weather Bureau for such
a cable would have been invaluable TO u.s."