The morning news., 1894-03-26
BANKER oLEws' VIEWS.
The Financial Outlook as Seen Fro,
Wall Street,


New York, March 24.-There are MANY
good and sufficient reasons for taking a
cheerful position regarding the future of
the stock market. A few of them NAV be
briefly enumerated as follows:
l. Confidence is certainly reviving.
Business is slowly but surely emerging
from the distress brought on by the silver
CRISIS and grievOusly prolonged by tariff
agitation. Stocks of merchandise have
become so exhausted with few excep-
slons, by prolonged curtailment of produc-
tlon, that universal resumption at the
mills will be imperative as soon as the
tariff fright is over. Outside of,the tariff
question, the manufacturing situation is
exc ptiOnally favorable because vvapes
and materials are lower than usual, and
the consumptive abilities of the country
have not been impaired in any such de
gree as its productive abilities. The busi-
ness situation may be dismissed by the
simple statement that it is exceptionallv
sound and improves daily.
:. Easy money is assured for months
to come. Rates are extraordinary low,
ana there are no immediate prospects of
better rates Even the approaching
April settlements, usually period of dis
turbance are attracting no attention.
Ihls question of easy money is an impOr-
tant factor, because it not only facilitates
speculation but in the long run encour-
ages the demand for interest-paying
properties.
3. There is a scarcity of good railroad
investments in Europe, distrust of our
currency system having caused a hea Wy
return of both stocks and bonds. When
this distrust is removed, as doubtless it
soon will be, marked revival in the Eu-
ropean demand for Americans" will in
evitably follow
4. In event of any pronounced revival
at home or aboard in the demand for rail-
road Investments, the supply would be
found inadequate to the demand; for
railroad building in the United States has
not, for five years past, kept pace with
the growth of industry and population
In the east our railroad system is alone
fully developed, but this is far from true
in some sections of the west
D, The industrials have not been a sue
cess as Investments. Even as specula-
tlons they have caused greater proper
tlonate losses to yentursome operators
than railroads. There is naturally
more secrecy in management and
possible in the case of railroad compa-
nies. InUrinsically the railroad is vastly
more tangible affair than the "Trust "
and far less dependent upon individual
whim or skill. Unquestionably recent
experience with this class of investments
will lead to a reaction in favor of railroad
stocks and bonds
.. Several immense properties are still
undergoing the process of reorganization,
the first effect of which win be to greatly
strengthen the railroad situation. Such
securities are usually concentrated in
strong hands, or are at least very firmly
held for better prices.
Z. Decreases in earnings are steadily
growing smaller and the earning power
of the roads soon promises toexpand from
the revival of trade. BY great economies,
chiefly for renewals and improv ements.
net earnings have been remarkably well
sustained and the fears of reduced diyi-
dendS, which warranted the earlier decline
IN values, are slowly disappearing The
reports of rate cutting and the opening of
navigation have had a slightly adverse
effect; but these are elements always met
with bout this season.
S Small gold shipments have occurred
thus far; and at the moment no heavy
outflow seems probable. This will be as
suring to those who are apprehenSiVe on
the subject; though as a matter of fact
our banks could readily spare round
amounts without any inconvenience. In
fact were the silver question out of
sight liberal eitiuX would be welcome to
lenders through the stiffening of money
rates that would follow.
g. The veto of the Bland bill will prob
ably settle the silver question for good so
far as this administration is concerned.
This is not only the most important but
the most encouraging feature of the
whole situation. 1t Will not only restore
confidence in the ability of the govern
ment to maintain its obligations on a gold
basis but it will again restore American
credit on a high plane The world over. A
veto of the Bland bill will do much to
counteract the effects of tariff changes,
which have already done their worst.
This summary Of favorable arguments
need not be extended further. Arrayed
against them there is little but lack of
confidence and lack of purchasing ability
to prevent q rapid rise in values. These
are obstacles which cannot be overcome
without time for racuperation, Conse-
quently the improvement must be slow
and irregular. The tide has certainly
turned and we are already leaving qisas-
ter behind.