The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1894-03-05

son: while q suggestion that a cessation OF
| food expectation is probable. Is looked upon
az a clear manifestation OF mental aberra-
tlon. Yet this should not deter us from
considering carefully such possibilities and
| inauring into the probability that the con-
| ditions will bring about such cessation at
| no very distant day. Hence It Is desirable.
from every point OF view. that we measure
carefully the country's power to produce
the great farm staples. and the require
ments for home consumption. and their re-
lation to the nations position in the COM
mercial world; and thus endeavor to deter
mine what is really the present exporting
power OF the country, and what It is likely
to be in the immediate future. especially as
regards food and fibre.
Exports are usually, II not invariably.
expressed and measured by volume or
value; but neither value nor volume enables
us to measure present exporting power.
or to calculate that Of the Immediate or
remote future. Values SO vary and depend
upon 30 many obscure relations as to af-
ford no definite measure OF either produce
tive or exporting power; and even volume
is, directly. but an unsatisfactory measure.
NOiuiho, hOWONSis w ttihio VI
acres, and extending the inquiry TO
period sufficiently long TO determine cor
rectly average acreage yields. and reduce
ing domestic requirements for the great
staples TO like acreage terms. we have an
unexceptionable measure OF both productive
and exporting power. and OF domestic re-
auirements as related to both. Such a
measure, In connection with the ascer-
At. -. II. L..
Ing all staples. enables us to determine the
productive and exporting powers Of the
present. and closely to approximate those
Of that future which most directly In
terests those engaged in production and
distribution.
During the eighteen years ending with
June. 1893. the value OF agricultural prod
ucts exported In primary and secondary
forms equalled rs per cent Of all exports:
and In no five years OF the eighteen did the
proportion fall below IS per cent. while the
exports OF manufactures represented less
than Is per cent. Of all exports.
Agricultural exports declined from so per
cent. OF the whole in the first half Of the
eighth decade to "a per cent. in the period
ending with 1899. to rise to 76 per cent.
for the three years ending with June last.
This increase, however. was adventitious
and wholly attributable to extraordinary
yields OF both wheat and cotton from two
crops. and In no way does It indicate an in
crease OF either productive or exporting
power On the contrary. the exporting
power has diminished since 1889 in nearly
the full measure Of the requirements OF the
100000 added to the population. the add-
lions to the cultivated area not having
equalled the increased requirements for
hay alone. Indeed. there has been no add-
ton to the exporting power since the earlier
years OF the ninth decade. or the 2.O00. 900
acres added to the area under cultivation
between 1879 and 1889. about I. 800 900 acres
were devoted to the production Of cotton.
The corn fields expanded by an addition of
9.700.000 acres. The area under oats in
creased by l21O00OO acres. Some 2.4OO. 900
acres were added to the areas growing po-
tatoes. tobacco. and minor cereals. The
meadows increased by not less than %, $780,
900 acres. while the wheat fields actually
shrank more than 1850 900 acres.
In other words. meadows absorbed nearly
half the acreage added to the productive
area. and such forage crops as hay and
oats employed about 70 per cent. OF all the
new acres brought under cultivation. while
the requirements for other staples OF the
1880. 900 additional population in the ten
years absorbed the products OF 22.000.0O0
other acres. At the close Of the ninth dec
ade. therefore. the exporting power OF the
country. as measured by productive acres
and home requirements. was actually less
than In the earlier years Of the period In
the measure OF average yields from about
5000. 900 acres. and this would have sooner
been made plain but for exceptional crops
OF wheat and cotton since 1889.
Since 1890 the exporting power. rs meas
ured by productive areas and homo re-
quirements. has been declining with great
rapidity; not only because there have been
no additions to the grain and cotton fields.
but by reason OF the fact that much grain
and cotton land has been diverted to the
growth OF other products required by tho
progressively greater additions yearly
made to the population.
The areas heretofore employed In grow
ing products for expectation are shown In
the following table. animals and animal
products having been reduced. first. to
terms OF bushels OF corn and tons OF hay,
and then the bushels and tons reduced to
terms Of acres at ascertained and uniform
rates OF yield and consumption. while the
wheat and flour and the cotton exported
have been reduced to terms of acres in the
same manner The determinations OF the |
acreage annually employed and the ratio
thereof to the whole area under each farm |
product exported in primary and secondary
form. are shown by averages Of fiye-year
and three-year periods. the exports OF corn |
in secondary form being shown separately: |
Is sE2gsal z