The times. [volume] (Richmond, Va.) 1890-1903, 1894-11-13
COTTON CROP ESTIMATES.
REPORT THAT YIELD WOULD REA Gu
TEN MILLION BALES DENIED.
Mr.. sbeppersou, the sts'fstieian' OF New
York. Argues That Mr.. W'us Estimate
10 by far Too Liberal.

CHARLESTON. s. c.. Nov. 12.-T>rth
a view to finding out just how much
credit was 10 be given to the recently
published statement OF the present cotton
crop OF 100000 bales. and to put before
it's readers a trustworthy and intelligent
statement of the cotton situation at the
present time. the News and courier APP
piled 10 Mr.. Alfred u. Shepperson, OF
New York. the well-known cotton sta
tistician, and mas received the following
very lucid and satisfactory reply;
New York, November 8, 1874.
Cotton has declined again to-day, chlefy,
I understand, upon crop estimate just
issued by Mr. NELL, of New dreams, that
the crop Will be over IV,V'y,uo ol pa ps',;
I confess that 1 am unable TO see any
basis for such a large estimate. Inc
largest crop ever grown in this country
was that which was planted IN 1880; the
yield of that crop was p.ooiDly s,-", ~
s674. 900. and the difference between this
and the q.antity which nave given as ire
probable yield was marketed In the ioi-
lowing season. -
that the acreage Of the crop now being
marketed was any larger than that oil
the crop OF lS90-9l, nor Is there any eti-
dence, to my mind at least, that the
weather conditions have been moro favor
able this wear than IN 1890. l am at a
loss therefore. TO understand 10 what
cause or causes is to be reasonably at
tributed yield so much in excess OF the
monster crop OF 1871.
NO GREATER ACREAGE THAN IN 1871.
The acreage In 1890 was about D,5OCVW
acres. and | do not think any one mas
claimed or will claim mat IT was any
more this year. The Department OF
Agriculture has been making, since Feb
ruary list. a careful inyes tigation OF the
question OF the cotton acreage, and mas
pose VIM has travelled through the South
and has Investigated the matter. as
I'm told, in the most thorough manner
possible. The acting Secretary OF Agri-
culture wrote me on October 2th that
the result of the investigation was that
the acreage I'm 1888 was ls,1S,W0 acres.
There has been but small increase IN
acreage this year over 1888, he De
partment Of Agriculture calling the In
crease less than per cent, 50 that the
acreage Of the crop coming In, according
to the Department estimate, Is about
- 6j0. 600 acres Let us assume that the
Department has underestimate IL some
what. and that the acreage Is as much
us ~ Ol0O 90 acres. This, as you Will see,
Is 900 100 acres less than I'm 1890. and yet
we are asked TO believe that upon an
acreage of 10000 acres less than In 1871
a crop OF million bales more has been
grown. | am not prepared 10 accept
n
repugliant 10 reason and common sense;
At these low prices, or anythlng IKE
them, the tendency viii be TO largely IN
crease CONSUMPTION Of cotton everywhere,
and there will evidently be upon the part
Of spinners a general disposition 10 buy
cotton greatly n excess Of their wants Tor
the season be ,auSe at these prices they
can well afford b carry in the mill ware
houses a large supply of cotton into the
rcAt season.
BIG REDUCTION PREDICTED NEXT YEAR.
There can be no question that unless
the price advances very greatly 10y the
time for planting the next crop that the
acreage devoted 70 cottrn will be reduced
TO an extent that IL never has been cur
tailed before from one year To another
SO great "A reduction IN acreage would
cause beyond doubt, an advance as great
and rapid as the decline has been.
When preparations were made for
planting this crop middling cotton was
worth eight cents In New York, and
should there be great reduction OF
acreage this spring II Will be very likely
To go to eight cents again soon after the
next crop Is planted. and the world has
recognized the fact beyond dispute that
the acreage has been, and consequently
the supply Of cotton viii be greatly re-
duced.
/ sympdthizc deeply with the Southern
PEOPLE because of the great depression
which has overtaken their staple crop.
and from the manner in which cotton
is being rushed To market IL looks to me
1t will not benefit the planters, because
they will have sold all OF their crop, and
that the spinners and spectators alone
Will reap the benefit OF the tardy advance.
Yours very truly,
(Signed) ALE. y. SHEPPERSON.