Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1894-11-01
Benefit to Hill From Opposition to
the New Constitution.
PARTIES FLOUNDERING IN FIGURES
How a Prominent Democrat Sizes
Up the Situation.
LOSSES IN CONGRESS LIKELY

NEW YORK November 1.-Great stress
is laid by the democrats on the benefit
Mr.. Hill is to derive in his candidacy
from the opposition to the proposed
constitutional amendments. 1t Is very ap
parent that these amendments, or rather
that those of them that are attracting at
tention, are unpopular. 1t is of the great
est Importance to all democrats that they
should be beaten. The indications are that
they will be beaten. 1t is a question decid-
edly open, however, as to how far this will
benefit Hill. Since the opening of the cam
paign the effort of Mr.. Hill and Of the
democratic committee has been to impress
Upon the democrats of the state that the
defeat Of these amendments and the elec-
ton of Mr.. Hill were so intimately asso-
ciated that the one followed Of necessity
with the other, and that the defeat of Hill
would carry with it a reapportionment
which would keep the democrats out of
power for an indefinite term of years. This
representation failed to frighten the Fair
child folks and the Sheppard people away
from their plan to bolt the regular demo-
cratic nomination. The question now Is,
how far it will influence the action of the
democratic voters generally. 1t Is said to
be very effective to secure to Hill the
support of the united democracy outside
the big metropolis.
The statement that the feature of the
amendments which is aimed against gam
bling is so sweeping as to break up all the
county fairs, to prevent contests as to
the size of the prize pumpkin and to m
terfere with the awarding of prize for
the superior beauties of Matilda's patch
work quilt, is said to arouse the country
people to a high pitch of indignation. Re-
ports from all the country districts indi-
cate that the opposition to these amend
ments plays an important part in the con-
test, and will there help Hill. This effect
Is by no means apparent in New York
N a1
portionment will hold a good many demo-
Gratis in line who do not like Hill, out it's
operation In that way will not be as gen aral
as democrats have hoped. Men say: I'VE
do not have to elect Hill in order to defeat
these amendments. We can vote against
Hill and against the amendments, too"
The number who put the proposition In
this way appears to be quite large. Hill
may be defeated. therefore, though the con-
stitutional amendments are not adopted.
Occasionally the suggestion is thrown out
that the republicans might be willing to
permit the amendments to be sacrificed in
order to insure the election. The situation
| Is not such as to warrant such a sugges-
ton. II they had to choose between the
two things they could better afford the de-
feat OF Morton, since his election would
not insure them more than a temporary
advantage. whereas the adoption of the
new constitution would promise them a
| long lease Of power.
FlOundering Among Figures.
der about among their figures on majorities
| above the Bronx and below the Bronx
shows how far short they fall of the ability
to correctly measure the situation. From
the democratic committee comes the very
weak statement that IL Hill has no more
than 10000 against him above the Bronx
he will be elected. Why, of course he will!
If the entire bottom has not dropped out
Of the city organization. If in New York,
Kings and Queens and Richmond Hill can
not get majority large enough to over
come O,OOO at the bridge the party has
fallen into a much worse way than even
its reasonable enemies dream of.
From the republican headquarters comes
the statement that If Morton comes to the
| bridge with $1,000 majority his election
will be assured. Again, of course, that's a
very weak way of putting 1t. He ought to
win with 10000 majority to the bridge, If
| there is anything in the table of democratic
losses in New York. The question which
hangs the election in the balance is how
much above 10000 against him Hill can af
ford to carry over the river, and how much
| majority in the upper part Of the state.
Under ordinary circumstances Hill could
overcome majority of 6O,OOO from up the
state. This year he will be doing exceed
ingly well to overcome $4,000.
At this moment, however, neither COM
mittee has anything upon which to base
an estimate. The situation has to be judged
according to general conditions and con-
clusion reached by blind intuition.
A Democratic Sizing Up.
A very prominent democrat sized up the
situation in a talk with me today about as
nearly as it can be. 1t was that when Hill
was nominated his chances of election were
not one in ten; that at this time they were
about ole in three, and that such an in
crease as this indicated that he might be
elected. 1t must be remembered that he is
steadily playing away from that starting
point of almost certain defeat toward the
goal where victory lies.
In racing parlance, he is the short horse,
with the odds against him decreasing.
Apparently his chances to be elected gov
ernor are as much better than those of
Grant to be mayor as can be measured by
the votes Of the Grace democrats or the
state democracy"
There is nothing to indicate that Hill will
fail to get all the votes that Tammany
polls, and he will probably get nearly all
the Grace people besides.
On the start the Grace forces gave indi-
cations Of being almost solidly against Hill.
When II was arranged that he should get
the official Endorsement of the organization
1t was still evident that very large pro-
portion Of the voters Of the organization
would not support him. 1t is to overcome
this trouble that Grace has been exerting
all his influence. He Is now satisfied that
his efforts have been successful, and that
1t will be a very small number Of the state
democracy who will fail to vote for Hill.
Grace expects them to cast a substantially
solid vote for Hill.
If this proves true Graces Influence has
been the great factor in bringing 1t about.
The arguments that have been effective
are the ever-ready one of the extreme ne
cessity of victory to the democratic party
at this time, and the fact that Hill defied
(or seemed to defy) Tammany IN letting
his name go on the state democracy ticket
When he Ignored the threat Of Strauss to
retire from the mayoralty candidacy, If the
state candidates were put on the "state
democracy" ticket "a threat which was exc
cuted duly, Hill made for himself a great
many friends among anti-Tammany demo-
Gratis, who before that had not admitted of
the possibility that they would vote for
him. At the same time there was no indi-
cation of his having offended Tammany
who are suspected Of having wanted to get
rid Of Strauss, anyway.
How Hill Has Made Votes.
No doubt Is expressed anywhere, serious
ly, that Hill has made votes by the peculiar
vigor and earnestness of his campaign, and
by an appearance Of unselfish party devo-
| ton with which he has been able to sur
round his campaign. To those who believe
| in this seeming rInselfishness the attitude
] assumed by Mr.. Cleveland has appeared in