The morning call., 1894-08-14
WHEAT PROSPECTS.


+. Sundays: CALL contained interVie VS.
WITH T, C. Friedlander, secretary of the
Produce Exchange. and A. Montpelier,
cashier of the Changers Bank, Oh the sub
ject Of the present condition and future
. prospects of wheat in this State. Both
gentlemen ara experts, and have the sta
tisties of the wheat industry at their
fingers ends. Their views deserve study
and should be kept for future reference.
Referring to the decline in the market
value of wheat which has taken place
within the last few years. Mr.. Friedlander
ascTibes 1t to oVeT-production, and AYERS
that the wheat crop is increasing more
rapidly than consumers. AS matter of
fact. the crop has remained stationary for
several Yeas, the worlds yield being
about 200, 100000 bushels, while the pOpu-
lation of the wheat-eating nations has in
creased year by year, and some races
which q few decades ago were not large
consumers of wheat have become con-
sumers in consequence OF the decline in
the price. India, China and Russia are
eating much more wheat than they did in
1875. Passing over this. Mr.. FEledlander
chief competitor in the wheat market is
Argentina. That country is in the posi-
ton which the United States occupied be-
fore the civil war 1t contains millions of
acres of land suitable for wheat-raising
which the Government offers for sale at
50 so an acre in paper, or so cents an acre
in gold. In 1890 Argentina exported
100000 bushels of wheat; III 1893
So, 100000 bushels; this year the export is
expected to reach $4,000. 600 bushels, near
~ half the average export from the
United States. and something more than
twice the average export of California.
In part Mr.. Friedlander ascribes the
gradual decline in the value of wheat to
the diminution in the cost of transporta-
ton, and herein he is probably nearer the
truth than in his views of over-production.
Making allowance for the economies due
to improved agricultural machinery, be
figures that the California farmer can
raise and market his wheat foE $40 ton
less than he could two decades ago; and,
embracing the whole country in his view
and taking into consideration the reduc-
ton liz railroad freights from the inland
wheat-growing States to the Atlantic. be
third of what it was twenty years ago. so
that at cent a pound the farmer may
now get more goods for his crop than his
father did when be got cent and half
or cent and three-QuaTters.
Mr.. Montpellier's views are equally in
teresting. He figures the crop Of the
United States this year at 450.000,000
bushels, and, as England must import
about 100000 bushels, the farmers are
looking for higher prices. Our crop this
year is not large, but so much wheat was
held over from last year that as large a
gu antity is available for export as il the
harvest had been a full one. No one
seems to be in a hurry to ship. 10 July
only one wheat ship cleared from this
port for Liverpool. The growers seem
resolved that if the outside world wants
its usual supply of 100000 or q, 100000
bushels from this State it will have to
pay something more than the present mar
ket price.
The competition between California and
Argentina is more serious than the CON-
petition between the United States and
India, which frightened our growers ten
or fifteen years ago. Indian wheat had to
be moved such vast distances by rail that
its value on the farm was reduced to
figure at which the growers could afford to
consume it themselves. The Pampas, On
the contrary, are intersected by an extern
sive river system, and the railroads, with
out grades or curves, can afford to carry
freight at very low rates. The wheat
growing territory is so extensive that its
productive capacity is practically limitless.
Fortunately for California our wheat is
superior in quality to the Argentina wheat.
and commands about Cd bushel more in
the Liverpool market.
A couple of propositions seem to be made
clear by the opinion Of these experts. In
the first place, there is little or no money
in growing wheat in this State on farms
as small as quarter section or less. The
staple can only be grown on farms so
large that steam machineryacan be brought
into play. And. secondly, our wheat
should be shipped in the shape Of flour.
By introducing the latest improvements
and the highest scientific appliances into
our milling processes we shall command
markets which cheap productions cannot
take from US. In food. as in everything
else, quality will tell.