Pullman herald. [volume] (Pullman, W.T. [Wash.]) 1888-1989, 1894-04-20

| NailOuo CdusCb diO pun lOl Ndlu III GA
planation OF this decline. The principal
among the causes assigned are:
l. Overproduction.
2. Decrease in cost OF production.
8. Decrease in cost OF transportation
and marketing.
4. Depreciation OF silver, or rather,
the appreciation of gold, which is the
standard OF value in the general wheat
market.
Let us consider these alleged causes in
the order named: /. Overproduction.
The prices of wheat as given above show
that the falling off has been practically
continuous and almost uniform during
the years cited. According to the gen.
eral law OF supply and demand, consider
ing without regard to modifying condi-
tions, the infere ice would be that either
the supply of wheat has been increased
above the ordinary demand somewhat in
the ratio of the decline in price, or else
that if the volume of the product has
not increased from year to year the de-
mand for the cereal has diminished in
about that ratio. The current theory
whereby it is sought to explain the phe-
nomenal decline in the price is that the
wheat crop of the world has been grow
ing greater and greater, until at last it
has assumed sue proportions that the
market is no longer able to assImilate it.
| The wheat statistics OF the United States
Department OF Agriculture covering the
eight years from 1885 to 1892, inclusive,
are sufficiently definite for comparative
study, and can be accepted in their gem
eral character as entirel y reliable. They
show that the largest wheat crop OF the
world was produced in 1887 and the ag-
gregate crop has been less each year ever
since, and that the average crop for the
five years following up to and including
1899 had been less by many million BUSH
els than the crop OF that year-lS87. The
latest estimates place the crop OF 1898 to
be about the same as the crop of 1885,
and the latter is about the same as the
years. In general terms, we may say
that during this period, which is ade-
quate for the purposes OF inquiry into
the decline OF wheat prices, the volume
OF the yearly product has been neither
materially enlarged or diminished. III
this criterion be sufficient it follows that
the cause for the falling off in wheat
prices has not been Overproduction. To
particularize, the four great wheat-pro
ducing countries and controlling factors
as such in the wheat market are-frst,
the United States second, France third,
India fourth, Russia. In the United
States what was normal crop ten years
ago has been about the yearly crop since
the same holds with regard to France
and India, while Russia produced larger
crops in 1887 and 1888 than afterward.
As TO the other wheat producing coun-
tries, their individual crops have no con-
trolling influence on the mar6et, while
their aggregate output has been substan
TALLY uniform for years. The Argentine
Republic, about which apprehension is
sometimes expressed, has increased her
wheat crop during the last ten years,
but her factorship in the wheat trade is
scarcely more important than that OF
| California. The fear has been often ex-
pressed that India, with her enormous
output, would destroy the wheat market.
Nothing has thus far occurred, however,
nor is there anything within immediate
view to warrant such fear. On this
point note the following memoranda
given out by the India Office OF the Brit
ish Government. [See Bureau OF Statis-
tics, Commerce and Navigation, United
States Treasury Department, 1893;
"The export trade in wheat really be-
gan in 1Ss1-S2. Since then there has
been no appriciable developement. Up
to lS90-9l the exports were for three
years only, in small excess over those OF !