The morning call. [volume] (San Francisco [Calif.]) 1878-1895, 1894-08-10
THE COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK.

The recent wild fluctuations in corn at
Chicago are not unnatural features In
market which is struggling for position.
Corn has not attracted as much attention
as wheat. Until now it has commanded a
price too high to be good starting point
for bull movement Ga Wednesday the
two staples were about equal in value--a
thing which has never been witnessed be-
fOre-apd both we're selling at price
which iustifies purchases for the rise when
ever circumstances tend to restoration OF
confidence. Notwithstanding the unfavor-
able weather reports from the corn belt
there seems to be good reason for expect
ing an average crop, and as to wheat, unless
appearances are deceptive, the harvest
will be above the average. 1t is conf
IDENTIFY believed that the cotton crop will
be very heavy. Cotton bills have already
made their appearance in the New York
market, and have checked the outward
flow of gold.
The commercial organs estimate that
the curtailment in the production of manu-
featured goods within the past year has
been equal to % per cent But the curtall-
ment in consumption due to the reduction
in wages and the decline in the demand
for labor has been less than % per cent,
probably nearer 10 per cent, thus there is
a deficiency in the supply of necessary
articles which must soon be made up.
There sis no reason to suppose that the in
crease in the population has been checked.
If there had been no commercial crisis the
volume OF manufactured products created
in 1892 would probably have been made
uuate to the demand to-day. though the
falling off in immigration and the swelling
of the tide of emigration to Europe must
to some extent have checked the c0nsump-
ticn of goods.
The restoration Of confidence has been
checked by the uncertainties of the tariff
debate. but there now seems to be fair
prospect of that impeachment to recon-
structiOn being got out of the way within
a few days. When this happens. mer-
chants will be able to operate with clear
perceptions of the future. There seems
to be every reason for looking forward TO
a long period of plain sailing without
danger of unexpected drawbacks. That
this is the expectation OF welLlnformed
parties IN the East many signs indicate.
There is a slight but steady increase IN
the loans of the New 7 erik banks, which
shows that trade is picking up and that
the bangs are not afraid to accommodate
their customers. The volume of idle
money at the financial centers is still too
large; money is lending in New York at
l to per cent on CALL but it is something
that there is any demand for it at all In the
last week of July the railroads showed an
increased traffic as compared with 1898.
Money is very cheap in London, and Eng
lsh investors are buying back the secure
ties which they sold when the crisis first
overlook this country.
The railroad share market is unpleas-
antly affected by the revelation of the
fraudulent rebates paid by the AtchisoD,
and by the uncertainty which overhangs
the future Of the Southern Pacific. These
disturbing Influences will probably stand
in the way of revival of activity on the
New York Stock Exchange. But though
that institution is often a gauge of mer-
camille prosperity, it is not always so.
Commercial booms have sometimes been
contemporaneous with periods of dizziness
in the share market. Furthermore. the
dealings in what are called ''industrials,"
to wit, articles of merchandise repre-
scented by trust shares, have latteIly alb
sorbed public attention in preference 10
railroad shares. Operators now take
flyers in sugar" where they used to
deal in Erie. We may seq quite lively
speculation in the necessaries of life break
out simultaneously with general neglect
of the stocks and bonds which represent
avenues of railroad transportation.