The morning call., 1894-03-24
THE PROSPECTS OF IMPROVED
BUSINESS.

! Signs Of recuperatiOn rather tentative
| than vigorous meet the newspaper readers
eye on every side. Chicago has been feed
ing about 5000 unemployed men; the num-
Der is now reduced TO about 1900 to 1900,
and when farm work begins the eleemO-
svnary machinery will be laid on the
shelf Hardly a day passes that we do
uOt hear of some sumption Of work by
foundry or other factory IN Pennsylvania.
The employment famine is making way
for famine in finished products. The
spring business in New York cannot be
said to be moving, but it is better than
last falPs business. The bank clearings
still show a reduction as compared with
last year; the figure for last year outside
of New York City is % per cent. But half
OF this may be accounted for by the decline
in the price of leading articles of merchan-
disc, which is certainly not less than 10
per cent. Finally the mercantile agencies
report that the number of failures is de-
clining, and the liabilities Of the houses
which do fail are small. The rotten spots
seem all to have been probed. Aside from
complications likely 10 arise from tariff
legislation it might seem that confidence
should soon begin to manifest itself uD-
mistakably. Ii will probably grow slowly
and gradually throughout the year. Be-
fore the opening of :he year 1895. unless
some unforeseen accident should happen, it
will be safe to look for a fair business,
marked by intervals of dullness. And in
1896, il not earlier, there is no reason why
the United States should not witness
period of normal activity. Unfortunately
the prospect of tariff changes tends to
vitiate prediction based on the course of
former business crises. On that account
during the period of uncertainty as to leg
islatioE recovery is likely to be slow and
on lower plane OF wages and profits than
heretofore.
ordinarily the course Of financial and
commercial business in this country can
be approximately measured by decades.
In every decade there are two or three years
of great business activity when men of
shrewdness and foresight can make money.
These biennial or triennial periods gener-
ally culminae in burst of wild specula-
ton, in which am bilious young men expect
to make their fortune in a single stroke.
They end iD collapse and forced liquida-
tion, and then those who have too much
sail spread in proportion to their ballast
CdUolLO EO ~ tuC DOlbOuIs
is the more terrible because the credit sys-
tenn is SO widely extended in this country.
Men do business with inadequate capital,
or with no capital at all. When they are
forced to liqu date they must 60 to smash.
After time these lame ducks all drop out
Of sight and period ensues when every
body is afraid of his neighbor, and those
who have money sit on their bags. This
produces general prostration and discour-
agement.
How long this period lasts normally de-
pends on the volume of the national
products and on the economies in living
which hard times have commanded. When
the crops are bounteous and extIavagance
has been checked, recovery is hastened by
the natural buoysncy of the American
temper and the disinclination of all Amer
leans to remain idle. Little by little in
dustry and enterprise revive. a man sees
his neghbor make money by judciOus
handling of merchandise or by the manu-
factuTe of some desirable article. He
Lhirsts to go and do likewise. He Is one of
many. And so gradually an argosy here, a
pr0Que there, are lauI ched to sea. They
move slowly and cautiously at first, for
fragments Of the recent wrecks are sill
visible on the waters. But ben the voyage
turns out well other men take courage and
launch their craft. So. one leading an
other, and each encouraged by some Iheas-
ure of profit. the period of dulIness and
depression gives place to an old-fashioned
cycle of activity in which money can be
made.
He who studies the commercial history
of this country will be surprised to find
now closely the course Of business follows
This decennial orbit. The periods are not
fixed like those OF the stars. They are
sometimes shortened or lengthened by po-
litical accidents. but they are not found TO
vary much as rule from the regular rota-
tion which has been described.