New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1894-10-01
WEST INDIA HURRICANE FORECASTS.
PARTIAL TEST OF PROFESSOR BIGELows


|
| THEORY NOW IN PROGRESS.
| The long-range weather forecasts which ,ned 10
be seen in almanacs and almost all Of those which
issued to-day by enthusiastic in that de-
| partner; of knowledge. ridcued by meieorOio-
| gsts who have any standing in the scientific world
| notable exception TO this rule, however. are those
made in The American Meteorological Journal last
! January by Professor Frank H. Rgelow. He Is
man OF thorough training, deep research. and special
fitness for investigating the subject in hand. ana he
fully understands the severity OF the tests 10 which
any new scientific theory must be subjected before
II Is entitled TO acceptance. These facts and the
! thoroughness and extent of the work already done
by him. lead those capable Of Judging him to view
his recent venture much more respectfully and toll
erantly than the va;c.naiOns OF the proVerbidl
| weather crank" The IS almost unique in the
history of me;eoroogy. and just at the present time
il merits c.Ose attention.
Professor Bige.ow had previously found a period
OF abou, 2G7 days which seemed to manifest Itself
IN the recurrence of certain solar phenomena In ter
restrial magnetism and in phases Of weather In that
period he thought he perceived that certain days.
with more or less regularity. showed disposition
toward warmth ana siorminess. and certain others
toward cold Naro,.s interruptng and masking IN
nuences which he has not yet fully elucilated come
in TO render the repetition Of the incidents of one
period rather imperfect during the next lie does
not claim to have got to the bottom OF the sub
ec nor TO have reduced the business Of prediction
TO practical basis yet. lie is only laying the foun-
dations as he thinks. Of the new meteorology But
il occurred tc him last winter make this expert
mcnt A survey OF the dates Of past storms Of
special class the West India cyclones of early au-
tumn for several years. seemed u confirm in some
measure his theory. He therefore suggested the
probability that such storms Of that sort as might
he witnessed in 1894 would occur some of
certain other dates which he specified. lie "a not
mean 10 say that storms would come on every one
of the days which he enumerated but merely that
such as did occur might exhibit preference for the
critical times designated. He named five Of these
for August five for September Cd 9th. 2th &,th
and 2eth) and four for October OF course his whole
system does not stand or fall with this guarded
and provisional forecast; nor indeed. was 1t intend
ed for an absolute prediction. Nevertheless.
or later his theory must be tested In just such
manner: and IL is therefore OF interest TO observe
how closely the event conforms to his programme.
During the month OF August not single trop-
cal hurricane was reported from the North At
lantlc. The began rather late this year. Bat
on September and five or six transatlantic
steamers encountered a genuine Of this class
on the latter date the Teutonc obtained baromc-
trio reading Of 2Sl5 inches. which alone indicates
that the disturbance one Of great severity
Cablegrams 10 THE New-Yo Herald" however
show that heavy swells were coming In from the
eastward at Bermuda September and 6 These
doubtless produced by the same cyclone on its
way nOrthward and point to a development nearer
the equator prior TO this time II is not unlikely
that in this. In many other weil-knOWn cases the
storm-breedng influences operated forchly at one
stage to originate the cyclone. which merely main
tanned a moderate force for several days. and then
a later stage the same causes. Instead Of Great
ing another storm. simply intensified the first one
Until more data Is collected IL Will not Doe known
how nearly the birth OF this storm corresponlci
with August % or September the critical dates