The times. [volume] (Richmond, Va.) 1890-1903, 1894-09-05
the great expectations. OF civic pride an ,o

gate population did not come up 10 pOpu-
lar anticipation was used TO stir UP the
claims of dissatisfied cities. Several con-
OCCASIONAL Investigations were made, anu
though one lasted nearly twelve mohth~'
and was thoroughly conducted by a com
mittee politically opposed 10 the adnlini is
tration at Washington, the ONCE ana me
work was INDICATED I'm every respect.
Some fault, 10 be sure. was found WIN me
system, and suggestions made in the me
OF permanent census bureau, but tne
verdict was that, considering the Hlasn
fude OF the undertaking and the mateIldi
available for temporary work OF this klhd,
the results were remarkably satlsiactoiI
and complete
DECREASE or THE BIRTH nATF.
The time has now come for com
plcte vindicatlon Of the great count 81
1890 The other branches Il me eieFehtn
census need no defence. for iTich1 am
foe alike agree in 'praising the Specla
work without stint willie our < Cd
statistical brethren IS TIE sea &C. "a
81 stands uncqualed. II IS also sTap y
ing. ana, perhaps. pard0naDle' Ior me 10
saw In this connection that Canada, Aus
tria. and italy have adopted the scheme
OF tabulation inaugurated by the elev-
enth census and mat to-day Scanii-
naVla the German Cove nment, ana ne
municipality Of Par s. are making - stu "
Of the system with Wow Of al )ptiOn
I'm future statistical work. To some per-
haps the popular surprise and disap-
pOfntment at the announcement * the
total population was sufficient evide ice
OF something wrong In the cOuat. sta
tsticlans. however. with any regard t.
their regulations would hesitate 10 ac-
cept this sort Of proof, and as result
do not recall single statis,ician OF
any reputation joining In tie ep deml
Of abuse which swept over the land In
consequence OF an imagined shortage
Of mi lion and 81 half IN the Gle. enth
enumeration Of the population OF the
United States. When qucsi Toned on me
subject they wisely answered. wait until
the tabulation Of the population by
periods Of life and ascertain how man
OF the inhabitants I'm Is % were undef
ten years Of age. Should the plopOTu %
Of the total population under ten years
Of age be the same as II was III I>ol.
namely 2G7. IL will be time enough 10
doubt the accuracy Of the count. j. on
the other hand. the birth rate has suffer
"a a sharp decline the e.eVcnth census
will be cOrrObOrated IN one OF the mos
essential points. Estimates ana expecth-
tons work well sometimes, but just as
you begin 10 rely upon THIS meih, a
they take sudden tumble and The
estimator" IS ignom nlOusly eXt!neul-u
ed. In this particular instance the birth
rate ala decline. The population IN yer
ten years Of age In 1850 Was 28.7 per cent
in 1890 2t3 per cent Now what doe
this mean? 1t means that If the pcpuia
ton Of 1880 had been maintainel m
1890 the population Of the country NouII
have been greater by sixteen or scveutcc1
hundred thousand. ard the aggregate
population over G4,00D0. This Uo II
have been equal to the most lihcra
estimates Of our population, ana ne
fact that the actual enumerated pO@nia
ton did not equal the 81 m3te cac
explained entirely by the falling Off IN
the birth rate during the previous ten
years.
rur pvoprr RysPossIBIY FOR THE SHORTAGE.
The more the figures are studied the
more convinced any fair-mnded 1ndlNld-
ual would become that the enumeration
Of 1890 IS substantially exact. ARain me
falling off Of the birthrate finds cor
roboration in the returns showing the
falling off IN the size Of families from
So in 1870. TO as I'm 1880. Thus the hsures
prove that the people OF the country,
not the Superintendent Of the census are
responsible for the shortcomings or the
population returns Of the eleventh emu
meration. The actual returns, even If
few Of the enumcrators nave peen c'u'
less are always more trustworthy ana
satisfactory than estimates from the most
profound statistical sharps. For example,
there was Elkanah Watson, who, IN 1913,
estimated the population OF the ! hit"l
States for each decade until 1901. In l'-p
he was only about $3.50 out or the way
i'm 1880. about 1900 I'm 1870 in the same
neighborhood. IN 1850 something like 60
600 and in 1890 over 3lOOr. Then ne TOOK
a mighty fall and was millions too much
I'm 1870 and 1850. closing nearly lo,V~'VU
too high I'm 1890, while his estimate for
1900 of 100. 235, 9S5 will probably exceed the
actual amount by 2.gD,ON.
Not deferred by the ignominious rate
IF the most accomplished Of our estima-
tors I suppose the latter-day statistical
prophets will be on hand in 1893 WIN
their commendable Vehemence, ana old
time exaggeratiOn. These persons seem
TO have never heard Of the law Of de-
Of
shown that the further conquest Is gar
ried the wider and the mightier becomes
the resistance. and the hostility when
the conquering power Is forced 10 en-
counter. So IL is in national growth.
whether in wealth or In population. Not
only do the limitations Of nature become
more and more stringent I'm reducing the
rate Of Increase but that increase uoes
OF itself create moral and social. not 10
speak Of distinctly political tendencies
which traverse its own course. and. II
not strong enough 20 deteat turlher
growth or accumulation 40, az least
make any successive gain more slow and
painful.
THE FUTURE GROWTH OF POPULATION.
What will be the future rate Of growth
of the Republic?
on this subject General Walker recent
ly. sal said: :. rooson FOR believing that GER
tain forces and tendencies not heretofore
felt or at least not heretofore recognized
in our national life. are beginning TO
affect powerfully the reproductive capa-
bilities OF our people. ana mat theSG
forces and tendencies have contributed
In a very large degree within the last dc
cade 10 bring down p ratio OF increase IN
the native population
What are these forces? To what extent
are they Industrial and TO what extent
social? How much of this decrease IS
due TO the fact that the line OF agrlcul-
tural occupation Is drawing closer 70 the
great barren plain; that manufacturing
IS taking its course westward and south
ward: that the population IS concentrate
ing I'm our large cities Of industrial encr-
ey; that the Struggle for existence in
these cOmpacted communities Increases IN
severity and TO the concentration of
wealth? on the other hand. how much
is due TO the fact That the population
tends Increasingly 10 fashion and social
observance; that Diet dress ana eQnlpate
become more ana more artificial. that
home life and housekeeping gives way
10 boarding and residence in flats that
methods for controlling the size Of fam
HES become better known; that families
decrease children become more burden
some. and marriage responsibilities are
assumed later In life? 1t is difficult to
give with any degree of exacttude the
particular cause for the decrease in the
birth rate, but | have here enumerated
some Of the principal forces which affect
the reproductive capabilities of our peo-
pie. In the eddy and swirl Of social and
Industrial currents through which the
nation is passing Il is wholly impossible
10 estimate its future rate of growth.
The present decade has begun with
financial and business disasters which
will seriously retard the growth % popu-
lation For the first time in a generation
or more the gates of Castle Garden are
swinging outward and not inward Al
lowing for still further reduction In
the birth rate and increase in the mar
ria4ye age, and in view of the present
and tendencies. the Republic
will not likely greatly exceed 100000
souls when the century which brought IL
oil, III