New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1894-09-15
THE CHANCES IN KENTUCKY.
~, OF BRECKINRIDGES BITTER CAM
PAIGN FOR "VINDICATION."
p,-zZIING POLITICAL SITUATION FOR THE
PRoPHETs-THE ESTIMATES OF
TO-DAY'S VOTE



IRON STAFF CORRESPONDENT OF THE TRIBUNE
Lexington, KY, Sept. 1.-THE long and bitter
.orvass for the Democratic Congress nomination
:, this district ended tonight. and tomorrow the
oyershadowing moral and personal issue involved
!, Colonel Breckinrdge's demand for a "vindica-
aon" will be tried before this much-disturbed
.,d distracted constituency. The participation
!, the triangular contest. which ends to-mOr-
~ Of candidate who has studously
favored to ignore the moral character Of the
ssht waged against the present holder of the
ga, cannot and Nil not alter the real signih-
cance Of the result: reached; for the judgment of
the district will be given. and will be frankly
,nderstc God TO be given in the sole question OF
Colonel Breckinridges moral fitness TO continue
10 discharge a pubic function once intrusted to
A Clay. a Cr;tenden. a Beck. The diversion
d formidable fraction of the Democratic vote
10 Mr.. Settle whose canvass has been made
ayowedy on issues in no way affecting Colonel
Breckinridge's moral qualifications disqualif-
cations whether or not it be decisive factor in
the primary election tomorrow. cannot be adj
n,tted 10 lessen the humiliation of Colonel
Breckinridges possible success, or to add TO the
mer, of his possible re jection Logically and
properly the credit CT the district must stand or
fail on an unqualifieC triumph for Mr. Owens or
a practical and substantial vindication for
Colonel Breckenridge.
That the real fight at the polls tomorrow will
b. between these last two may be fairly gath
cred from the confusing and contradictory esti-
mates Of the strength Of the three rivals, with
which the district has been flooded for several
days For it is noticeable that while the COM
putaiions most favorable 20 Mr.. Settle give all
three candidates about an equal vote the Owens
and Breckenridge experts significantly agree In
making the owen County aspirant hopeless
third in the race The manager of the Settle
campaign in this city has estimated that Nh
Settle will beat Breckenridge by 100 votes ana
owens by 300 in a total poll OF lssoO Inc
Owens canvass last published gives Owens
plurality of 2.420 over breckenridge and 3s9i over
Settle in total VI te of 1860. The Breckin-
ridge men. while not making SO precise calcuia-
lions maintain that III oir candidates VIII receive
over 100 out of a total of about $4,000. ana VIII
cross the line winner 10y sale margin oNe'
either rival.
A fair guess al the result be made only by
a careful examination OF he situation IN each
of the eight coun'.es in the district. In the
Presidential election two years ago the tOldI
vote cast for Cleveland in the dstric. was l6o9N.
.linst 8 749 for Harrison. Colonel Breck.nildee'
who was then a candidate for his hfth term IN the
House of Representatives, received lo'oeS No.sS'
running ten votes behind Mr.. CieVeidhd lnt
extraordinary interest attaching TO the present
contest may be counted on TO draw out a some
what fuller Democratic vote than That given 10
Mr. Cleveland in 1892. But il Is scarcely sdfe 10
estimate the Increase at more than 10 per cent.
which would make the total for to-morrows
primary election little more than lSOOO. MY:
Settle seems certain to get minimum vote OF
400 leaving 1880 10 1900 TO be divided be-
tween the two real competitors in the race.
The character Of the struggle in the two ends
Of the district has been already fully described
In the ''back-country" section the main contest
has been between the Breckenridge machine and
the sentiment of local pride in which MI settle
has based his wholly negative canvass. In the
Blue Grass end the fight has teen Outspoken ana
unsparing on the sole issue of Colonel Breckin-
ridges demonstrated mora turpitude
Everybody comedies that Mr.. Settle VIII get an
almost solid vote in his home county of owen,
the especial stronghold Of the mossback De
nOcracy i'll this Congress District The vote
east IN owen for Cleveland in 1892 was 1913.
against 74S for General Harrison The total
vote at to-morrows primary election Will prob
ably reach 500. The Settle managers claim a
strength Of $500. and likely to poll 200 votes
for their local candidate. Owens VIII be lucky
TO get fifty votes in this county. and the Breckin-
ridge machine may be counted on to gather IN
the remaining $50. Henry County adj dining
owen on the south. is much closer politically,
having cast but 1873 votes for Cleveland against
no for Harrison. The Democratic vote to-
morrow will also be much more equally divided
between the three aspirants for the nomination
II the total reaches 1850 Settle and Breckinridge
will probably run almost even. 800 Tor one ana
$50 for the other, while Owens may poii Vo'e
Of perhaps 300 -,
lar This county, the smallest and furthest out
lying in the district. cast 7S3 votes for Cleveland
In 1892 in total poll Of Las The Democratic
to fO-mO
opinion that Settle will carry the county. Four
hundred is fair estimate of his vote. with 900 for
Breckenridge and 200 for owens. the totals IN
the back country" end Of the district would
therefore be something like this: Settle 3,4VO
Breckenridge. 100; Owens. 800
OF the five Blue Grass counties. Scott. the nome
Of Mr. Owens, IL SUR to give him rouslhs
plurality sufficient 10 offset the long LEAD secured
by Colonel Breckenridge IN the other END 81 the
district, The vote for Cleveland in scott county
az the las, Presidential election was 1893. against
l2m for Harrison. A full Democratic poll Will
probably reach $3.50. Mr.. Owens's great iocal
nonua ritv ought rea sonaby to insure him at least
1900 votes out Of this total. OF the 6oO remaining
Coonel Breckenridge is expected 70 get 4oV ana
Mr.. Settle 200. Bourbon County. wh!ch gave MI
Cleveland 2,216 votes in 1892 Will dlvlde us es.-
mated poll Of 2.400 almost equally between the
two Blue Grass candidates. Mr.. Settle may get
100 votes while Mr.. Owens and Colonel lbrecKih-
ridge count between 1.lO0 ana LIZ" VOTES
apiece ~, .
Franklin and Woodford counties on the west
ern edge of the district ale conceded 10 ovens
BY small puralities. Franklin contains ,he r go
capital, Frankfort and H. the nome OF Cniteu
States Senator Lindsay. Mr. Owens was porn
there and as Speaker Of the lower branch OF me
Kentucky Legislature recently did Inc Tow" WI a de
the county valuable service in securing me w
feat Of bill for the removal Of the state cailtai
TO some other city. Franklin Countys Demo
cratic vote in 1892 was 2.1SG. and at tomorrow
election will probably Be swollen 10 z'4" I,e
Owens managers are satisfied that their cahoi-
date will show a strength OF LOU Whle nv
c0nce1e $50 votes 10 Colonel Brecklhriuse anu
800 10 Mr. Settle In Woodford. the home OF Sena-
tor Blackburn. who so far has taken no a.sNe
Interest in the canvass one way OF dlIotieI'
conditions are much the same as IN rid'iINi'.''
This county is the closest politically IN tne ASH
land District giving Cleveland but 2Ss votes
two years ago against a total for Harrison ol
1897 The exnected vote Of 1,400 tomorrow Is
divided up between the three candidates Some
what as follows: Owens. 75C: Breckenridge. ovo.
Settle. $50. 1t will thus be seen that Iea oil
Of account tho vote of Fayette County, the blue
Grass region will give a worry decided piufa,y ~
favor Of Mr.. owens. about 1,sO0 over Oo'yne ,
Breckinridge and 1000 over Mr.. Settle; ana una
he vote in tho seven counties outside Fayette
vi show a result equally favorable to Mr.
Wens, the totals being: owens oSVV; Die0N'"
Hdge, $780, Settle, Also. . ,.a
The real test of strength is TO come OF couase;