The morning call. [volume] (San Francisco [Calif.]) 1878-1895, 1894-08-12
FUTURE OF WHEAT
Hopeful View Not Taken
by Dealers.
OUTLOOK FOR THE FARMER.
Argentina as a Formidable
Opponent.
DIVERSIFIED CROPS ARE URGED.
overproduCtion, Railway Extensions,
OUTLOOK FOR THE FARMER.
CROPS ARE URGED.
0verproduction, Railway Extensions,
Cheaper transportation, Cause
Low Prices.

Dealers In wheat do not take hopeful
State, for some time to come at least.
Various causes are ascrbed for the present
low prices, and although it is felt that QUO
tationS can hardly go lower. it is not be-
ljeved that prices will return 10 the old
figures, which made the farmer of Cali
fornta one OF the nest independent of men.
Wheat at ? cents a pound, a not unusual
price 10 years past. may never be seen
again, if the grain prophets are correct in
their forecast of the future, while wheat at
81 30 q GENITAL, at one time considered
an extremely low figure, would now be
looked upon as an eXtraYagant price.
The development of new territory. the
extension OF railways in all the wheat
countries. has opened up millions of acres
30 the cultivation of the cereal. When
these new lands are brought under cultiva-
ton, the first crop raised is wheat 1t is
cash crop and finds money market.
Increased production is regarded as but
one factor another is the speculative call
boards of Chicago, Liverpool, New York
and Paris, and third is the depreciation
in silver, which by some is REGARDED as
the first and great cause of low prices.
The question which cGnfronts the farm
ers of California to-day is whether they
can continue TO compete with Russia,
India and Argentina in raising wheat for
the English market.
"OverprOduction is one of two factors
making absolutely low prices" said T. C.
Friedlander, secretary of the Produce EX-
change, yesterday. in speaking Of wheat
growing and its future outlook in Caifor-
hia. "The cost of production and that of
transportation have been constantly less
enng since 1875. Transportation to-day is
just.about one-third of what it was twenty
years ago. Not only have ocean treghts
been reduced, but railroad rates from the
inland wheat-grOwiDg States to the At
lantiC seaboaTd have been correSpOndingiy
lowered.
''In 1891, in an article written for the
State Agricultural Society. l estimated
the saving TO the farmer in raising and
marketing his wheat over the cost of
twenty years ago at 81 % a ton. believe
that was low estimate, and l should say
that to-day the California farmer cap
raise and market his wheat $40 a ton
cheaper than lie could two decades ago.
These conditions have stimulated produc-
ton.
Down to 1898 overproduction was the
principal factor in causing low prices. In
1891, 1892 and 1858 money was plenty.
farmers could obtain it and they refused
to accept the lower prices. Then came
the financial crash and the depression of
industries. To-day the purchasing power
of the community and of the farmer is less
than it ever has been. a dollar will buy
tuTally wheat suffers fall in price.
ga great factor in the foreign market
which has come into competition with
California is Argentina. That country
possesses wheat lands as good as those in
the United States. The soil is rich, the
climate is good and there are millions of
acres of level Drairies awaiting the plow.
"The Government sells these lands In
unlimited quantities at about 50 80 an acre
in the money of the Argentine Republic,
which is equivalent to about 80 cents an
acre in gold. Labor costs from $50 to $50
a month in the money of the country,
which is equal to So OF Sc a month in gold.
"Buen0s Ayres is much nearer England
than San Francisco, and consequently
transportation is cheaper. Argentina has
railways with no grades and running in
air lines. That makes the southern re-
public a dangerous competitor to Cali
fornia."
90 India. Mr.. Friedlander stated, had ceased
last year to be the formidable factor of
several years ago. When the English mar
ket dropped below 80 shillings a quarter
shipments of wheat from India began to
drop away. The exports from Russia
varied. There we're ups and downs in
fs-~ing there as in this country, 'but if
-ssia ever adopts a modern way of farm-
ing" added Mr.. Friedlander, 1.-THE farmer
of that country will produce wheat very
cheaply.
1.-The great trouble to-day is that too
much wheat is produced" continued Mr..
Friedlander. "Overproduction of wheat
makes it impossible for small farmer of
California to raise it at profit.
''Since 1879, with a few fluctuations,
there has been a continuous fall in the
price of wheat. A few years ago the
press of the United States was filled with
reports that the population of the coun-
try was increasing more rapidly than the
increase in the production of wheat.
Now we are confronted with fact just
the reverse Of this theory. The popula-
ton does not increase with the ability Of
the country to furnish 1t breadstuffs.
ITO great degree the immediate future
of wheat farming in California means the
survival of the farmer who can produce
wheat the cheapest. My advice is re-
duction of the wheat acreage in Califor-
MIA"
. Mr.. Friedlander gave some statistics
showing the remarkable growth of the
wheat industry in the great southern rival
Of the United States. In 1890 Argentina
exported 100000 bushels Of wheat; in
1898. 100000 bushels; while this year it
is estimated that the export will reach
81, 600. 600 bushels. For the twelve months
ending July IL. 1892, the United States ex-
ported 225, 0GO bushels of wheat. This
is the greatest record ever made by this
country. The range of exports iD bushels
is ordinarily from 100000, 600 to $50, 0OO 900
bushels. and 100000 bushels might be
considered an average years expert.
Argentina this year exports an amount of
wheat equal to one-third or more of the
average export from the United States.
California in an average year sends away
23O00,000 bushels of wheat or much less
than sone-half the amount which Argen-
tina is now capable OF exporting. These
figures show TO what formidable extent
the pamrAs of South America have come
to rival the prairies and plains of the
United States in the growth of wheat.
Referring TO the low price OF silver In
connection with the wheat trade, Mr.,
.Fripdlander said: "The fall in silver has
nndoubtedlv stimulated the production of
What 10 ooeb