The morning call., 1894-06-28
THE COMMERCIAL OUTLOOK.

The signs Of recovery in business at the
East are not very marked. but they are
visible. A comprehensive outlook reveals
condition which more nearly resembles
stagnation than further depression or de-
! cided convaleseence. Il must be remem-
bered that we are beginning to compare
with the first stage of last years reaction,
| and that the comparisons ought 70 be more
favorable than they have been.
The bank cleariDgs, which are an nfal-
lible gauge Of the commercial movement,
show a decline for the week ending June
q as compared with the corresponding
week last year of Is per cent. Exclusive
of New York the decline is 81 per cent,
showing that the dullness is largely in
speculative dealings, OF which New York
is the theater. The decrease In San Fran
cisco is 8 per cent. but in Portland. Or.
41.9. Improvement has naturally followed
the partial cessation of the coal and coke
strikes in the Central States. but the de-
maDd for coal and products dependent on
coal remains slack. Wheat aud corn have
improved in price with diminished re-
ceipts; cotton Is steady, with the prospect
of yield larger than last year; wool is
weaker. Orders for manufactures from
the South are disappointing, and Philsdel-
phla manufacturers report light inquiry,
while the stock of textiles continues TO
accumulate in the New England mills.
Still, at Louisville, ST. Louis, Kansas City,
Cincinnati and Detroit the merchants re-
port better feeling and al improved out
look for fail trade. From Chicago a dull
dry-goods market is reported. AS whole
the outlook reflects a condition Of ex-
pectancy. Congressional tinkering with
the tariff, and the drain on the Govern
ment gold reserve for export, naturally
incline to aggTavate the dullness usual at
this season.
On the whole, 1t is apparent that the
country is going into the fiscal year 1694-95
under short sail, and with the prospect
that if there is any change it will be for
he better. Actual recuperation can only
occur when the crops of this season have
been harvested. for the temper of the mer-
camille community is against any discount
ing OF the future. In October 1t will be-
come apparent that there is q surplus of
food products which represents profit, and
little later on, unless some accident oc-
ours, il will be safe to reckon on further
accumulation Of profit from the cotton
crop which will certainly be large and
may be unprecedented. No speculation is
visible in any market, and therefore nc
eollapses are TO be apprehended. 1t is
one of the encouraging signs Of the times
that the list Of failures is diminishing.
II is an unwritten law in this country
that a commercial crisis is followed by
period of sagnRtiou. Il was not till 1876
that the country recovered from the panic
Of 1873. From he crisis of 1857 there was
no recovery till the issues Of paper money
for war purposes set everything booming;
people did not pick up their courage after
the panic of 1897 till 1872 But it must
never be forgotten hat there were sub
stanual causes for these panies which
did not exist in 1898. Iu 1887 the
country was full of rotten banks.
In 1851 it was oVerrun by bank
rupt railroads; 1873 was a period of
forced liquidation following an era of wild
speculation. Last year we had no rotten
banks or bankrupt corporations, and
there had been no excessive speculation
TO culmlnate In reaction. There was simply
a simultaneous outburst OF want of conf
dence, which spread like an epidemic.
For the time the effect was as disastrous
as if the want Of confidence had sprung
from real grounds for distruSt But we
now see that the commercial and financial
fabric was on the whole sound, with only
such weak spots as were due 10 legislation
or the fear thereof. There nave been no
great failures spreading devastation among
the people al large. Most of the firms
which have suspended would have gone
under in any condition of affairs. No
banks worth the name have COLLAPSED. The
railroads which have gone into the hands
of receivers were sure to do so sooner or
later. The great manufacturers have
simply realized smaller profits than usual
When confidence reviyes it will find in
its way no wrecks which have to be cleared
1t will find a people Of consumers needing
everything and having the means to pay
for everything, and a body of dealers
whose stores are bare Of goods. II will
find capitalists weary of letting their
money lie Idle, and banks impatient to
make THAR deposits fructify. And above
all it will strike the bopefulness of the
American people. which can never long lie
down under such disaster.
-- -----------