The Seattle post-intelligencer. [volume] (Seattle, Wash. Terr. [Wash.]) 1888-1914, 1894-08-02
CAUSE OF THE INDUSTRIAL DE-
. PRESTON.

York sfGas ZeituAg are engaged in spSe-
tied controversy over thsoprimary causes
Of our present industrial depression The
Tolksbsatt ENDS the ruling cause in the
uncertainty which for nearly two years
has prevailed afnongour manufactures as
70 the proposed Democratic legislation on
othe tariff question: The SgaGts Zeitsag
vigorously assaiIs the posiuon taken by
the Volks5latt.9 and finds ths chief cause Of
the stsgn4ti6n in business in the oyer
production and consequent reaction that
IS the necessary result off the high tariff
originated snd maintained By the Repub-
fscaps. o % 20 y
Tie two papers draw entirely opposite
infsrences. one sttributing the cause TO
the late political victory of the Democrats,
the other laying the burden Of the respon-
sibilIty upon the shoulders Of The Repub-
licans. Ia their controversy they bave net
agreed upon their premises. and IL f.
hardly reasonable to suppose that they
would agree in their conclusions. The
Stats Zsitaf4sg POUNDS its arguments chiefly
upon two declarations, alleging IN the frst
place that from an examination of the
census a disproportionate increase between
production and population Is apparent in
the period covered by the returns. which
overproduction is now being compensated
for by our present basEness depression;
and secondly. that the prevailing hard
times can not be laid at the doorof the
E Democratic party, since President Clsve-
land was elected in November, 1892. and
the panic did not make itself felt until
June. 1893.
This is & new phase given to an old
argument. A moments consideration
viii convince any thinking man that the
reason assigned by the New York paper is
insufficient. There is no necessary con-
nection between overproduction and in
crease OF population. There is such rela-
ton. however. between production and
consumption~ II production in some de-
partments OF industry exceeds for time
consumption in the same departments,
there viii result an overproductEon; but
this has nothing to do with increase of
population. Consumption depends upon
the changing disposition of the people
and their power TO purchase, and may in
crease In o nation whose population Is
actually decreasing. If 1t were true that
population must keep pace with produc-
ton in order TO avoid overproduction and
the consequent periods of industrial and
commercial stagnation, then other coun-
tries would now be suffering more than
America. as the disproportion between in
crease of production and that of popula-
ton has during this same period been
greater IN some European countries than
with as.
4 Moreover to alfege that ak months
elapsed between the election of Cleveland
and the first indication of the panic as
an evidence that il was not distrust in the
Democratic party that brought on the dis
tress in business Is more ridiculous than
the first. Financial panics and business
depressions are not the result Of sentiment,
but Of actual business distress.
Business is conducted on extended credit
asd under half-yearly or yearly contracts,
and the fact that the panic began little
more than six months after the Democratic
rectly to support the inference that fear of
unfayorable tariff legislation by the party
in power stopped the factories when the
old contracts were filled and no more new
contracts we're to be had. Nor did il re-
qulre actual legislation TO bring about this
result Anticipation of unfriendly legisla-
tion, ard uncertainty as to its character,
is moro destructive TO industry than the
actual passing of the bills Every change,
whether actual or proposed, from moder-
ately protective TO revenue tariff. has
brought disaster 10 our country and con-
fusion to our trade.
The history Of our tariff legislation is
pregnant with illustrations of this truth.
The low tariff Of 1916 was followed BY the
business depression of the year 1919.
which lasted till the tariff Of 1924 revived
the dropping industries of the county.
The lowering Of the duties in 1888 was fol-
lowed by stagnation in business, which
began In 1881 and continued until Is42
The famous tariff OF 1876, 10 which the
Democrats are so won't to refer, was fol-
iowed by the panic Of 1857. IL 10 true
that industry in this instance did not
yield so readily to unfavorable legislation
as on former occasions. The explanation,
however. is found IN the extraordinary
events that were then about to take place
throughout the world, and that tended TO
postpone the inevitable results Of the
tariff law of is46 Two years after the
enactment of the law wo obtained large
accession Of territory from Mexico, gold
Was discovered in California, and the Teyo-
iutions began in Europe. The beneficial
effects Of these events had scarcely sub
sided when the war Of the Cr.mea was
sprung upon the world and gave a new
srimuius 60 American farmers and maup-
facsurers. All this Of course delayed ths
immediate effects q the low tariff Of 1876.
bnt the elements destructive 10 trade we're
scattered abroad and brought in the end
the panic OF 1857. which even the pro.
teelivs tariff OF that year could not stem.
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rHE WHEAT OUTLOOK.