Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1894-10-31
The Majorities That Will Meet at
Harlem Bridge.
Odds said TO FAVOR REPUBLICANS
Democrats May Put in Effective
Work This Week.
THE NEW YORK SITUATION

Special From q STAN Correspondent
NEW YORK. October 31.-There are many
rumors of deals and combinations to affect
the result Of the election. A report which
seems to be credited by some of the lead
ers in the fight for Strong is that three
cor gres sional districts and eight assembly
districts in New York city are to be traded
off in the interest of the Tammany can
didate for mayor. More properly speaking,
the idea is that an attempt at such a deal
is being made. Whatever foundation there
may be for the report, it is unquestionably
giving some of the supporters of Strong
considerable concern.
1t is the hour for deals. If this one falls
through 1t may be depended on that others
will come to the front almost every hour.
Nearly every one agrees, however, that
TammaIy is more interested in the cleo
ton of Hill than in either the municipal
or the congressional ticket, ana that in all
atten pts at trading, il there are any, the
interests of the democratic state ticket
will be regarded. Men who are glaring a
each other with drawn knives over the
mayoralty are working together for the
state ticket Grace is working as actively
for Hill is Gilroy Grant.
Any deal in the interest of TammanyS
candidate for mayor which left Hill out
or endangered his election would be profit
less to Tammary. as a republican legisla-
ture and governor would have them shorn
OF all their power in control of the city.
The play of Tammany appears, therefore,
to be to secure the election of the governor
anyhow and to take what comes to them
In the municipal fight. With both tickets
In danger, they cannot AFFORD to play with
the situation much The indications point
strongly TO the defeat of Grant, no mat
ter what is done, that 1t may not be much
of a sacrifice for them to devote all their
effort to swelling the Hill vote in the city
as much as possible.
Hilrs Vote In the State.
There is wonderful concurrence Of opin-
ion on two points-that Hill will receive
an unusually large vote in the state above
the city, and that in New York city he
will be cut terribly. Even republicans ex-
press privately Apprehension that the Hill
vote outside the city will be large.
On the other hand, the most sanguine
democrats among those who are worth con-
sidering express the opinion that the ma
jority for the democratic state ticket below
the Harlem will be much less than the
normal democratic majority. Besides the
general danger to the state democratic
ticket, resulting from the fight directed par
ticularly against Tammany, there Is evil
dence of a disposition among considerable
number of democrats of the higher bust.
ness class. who do not pretend to know
much about politics, to vote against HILL
Some of these will vote directly for Morton,
ignoring Mr.. Wheeler altogether. good
many say, "Oh, well; Hill is about as bad
as Tammany. Let's clean out the whole
lotr These are the people who are seized
with tired feeling when they are APP
pealed to to differentiate between Tam
many and Hill. The Wheeler campaign Is
a great deal of a refined comedy, played to a
very select audience. 1t will not count for
very much in the battle. The contest Is too
close however, for the loss of votes which
it will cost somebody TO be entirely dis
regarded.
The conclusion is compelled that the Hill
hat no Wheeler
be made up of men who would otherwise
vote for Morton, are either not well In
formed or are talking through their hats"
To some extent certainly the Wheeler ticket
does what 1t was intended to do, affords
an escape for some democrats who do not
want to vote for HILL but who would not
under any circumstances vote for Mr.. Nor
ton. This vote does not promise to be In
any way large but neither does the margin
for majorities appear to be broad
One peculiar feature of the contest is that
the personality of Mr.. Morton Is completely
strk. He Is kept In the background, and
as far as any enthusiasm Is to be taken
account of he might as well be Smith, Jones
or Robinson. The fight on his side is more
against his opponent than for him in its
motive. He seems to be a passive quality
in the contest. This accounts to large
extent for the very general impression that
Hill is going to get a large vote in that part
of the state on which the republicans de-
pend for their majorities.
With the conditions they appear in
New York city Hill will have to get an un-
usually large vote in the state to make Up
for loss in the city and be elected. That
he will get large vote Is the almost uni
versal opinion, but the situation demands
that it should be very large to count
Figures are of but little account in try
ing to get at situation such as is now
presented here. Columns of them that
would puzzle a lightning calculator are
being made use of by the takers for the
various interests to show that this thing
or that thing, which is just the opposite is
going to happen. The trouble of 1t all is
that they have nothing to figure from. If
either candidate gets so many votes above
the Harlem and so many below the Harlem
the result will be so and so, but the figures
are all selected arbitrarily to bring out a
certain result on paper.
Conflicting Estimates.
1t may be possible to come somewhere
near estimating what Hills majority will
be In the democratic strongholds. Impelled
by this desire men put the figures various
ly, through a very wide range A conserva-
tive estimate by men who are not trying to
fool themselves is that Hills plurality in
New York city will be in the neighborhood
of 5000, and that he will go to the bridge
with from $1,000 to $4,000, to meet whatever
ma jority Morton has in the rest OF the
state. The estimates OF what this latter
majority may be range all through the pos
sibilities, and get lost in the realms of alb
surdity, both ways. Statistics prove moth
ing: for the range through which the re-
publican majorities above the Harlem have
run Is very broad. The majority has sunk
extremely low on exceptional occasions.
1t has been below 10000: 1t has been wiped
out, and yet 1t is not uncommon for 1t to
press up toward the 100000 mark. The
only thing that can be said at this time
with tolerable certainty is that Mr.. Morton
Will come down to the bridge with a ma
jority considerably below the normal, and 1t
Is possible that Hill might be elected even
II he got no more than fifty or fifty-five
thousand plurality in the democratic strong
holds.
This seems to be true from the agreement
of reports that outside the Tammany bail
iwick that is. up in the state the demo-
Gratis are exceptionally free from divisions
In q rts of the state where the anti-Hiu
democrats have always figured prominently
there is outward indication of unity and
harmony.
Odds I'm Favor of Morton.
The prospect is that two unusually small
anta6onistic majorities will meet at the
Harlem to fight II out. Morton has not the
trouble to contend with In his bailiwIck