The morning call., 1894-02-17
WAR WITHIN THREE MONTHS.


:. If it be true. as stated, that Emperor
William; of Germany has warned the
Reichstag that the rejection of the new
Russian treaty. would cause an outbreak
OF war within three months the situation
must have become very grave indeed. A
more ciTcumspect talker would have been
mUre guarded in his language. but Will
liam is, nothing If not indsereet. There
is, perhaps, no instance in history in
which a war has grown directly ont of a
change in tariff. But wars have often
grow n more or less directly from CONNER
cial differences. a-.s
: The comm eIcial relations between Rus
sia and Germany. are mixed. The En-
:.petor of Russia; ruling nation of 124, ,OQ0.-
600 OF people, scattered over an area
covering one-sxth.of the dry land on the
GLOBE. proposes TO make his country inde-
pendent. of the outside world. and with
this object seeks TO exclude foreign goods.
In the past ten years lie has gradually
doubled tie import duty on goods used in
industry, and has raised the duty on
manufactured goods from 90 to 50 per
cent. Germany'has been the chief sufferer
by the adoption of this policy. Germany's
exports 10 Russia. which. consist mainly Of
manufactured goods and materials used
in industry, have amounted on the average
to 100000 rubles per year. This trade
was of course reduced by the increased
duties. Germany had the means of retail
alton in her own hands. She has been in
the babit of taking nearly 200, coo, 900
,rnbles, worth of raw produce, chiefly rye,
barley and wheat, from Russia. She met
the advance in the Russian tariff on Ger
man goods by imposing an all-round duty
of 80 per centon Russian grain.
:: The war created suffering on both side 8
of the frontier. German manufacturers
omplained that they had lost a valuable
market for their goods. and German food
consumers protested against the advance
in the cost of grain caused by the 50-per-
centduty. On the other side Russian grow
ers Of wheat and rye exclaimed against the
exclusion of their products from the Ger
man markets. The Governments at Berlin
and st. Petersburg set their wits TO work
TO devise tariffs that would satisfy both
peoples, The Gar, who is q law unto him.
self and need not take any ones advice,
had no difficulty in arriving at a COM
promise between the tariffs of 1892 and
those which were in force ten years ago; :;
but when the compromise was presented
to the Reichstag the German agrarians
protested that the agricultural interests of
Germany were being sacrificed to the
manufacturing interest, and that, now
they had got Russian grain out. it should
be kept out. That is the state of the con-
troversy to-day.
The agrarians are very strong in Ger
many. Il has been the policy of the In
perial Government to strengthen them as a
cOunterpoise to the people of cities, who
are largely liberal and socialist; the En-
peror has derived his chief support from
Them. Now they are the class which turn
against him and refuse to acQuiesce in the
bill for the repeal of the prohbitnry duty
on Russian grain. The situation must be
very grave when the Emperor feels it
necessary to appeal to their loyalty to sac
rifce mark and half on their rye and
wheat.
After some squirming the Reichstag will
probably give way and accept the Rus
sian compromise with wry face. If it
does not the Franco Russian alliance will
be strengthened. In Panslavist circles a
cooling in the cordial understanding be-
tween Russia and Germany would be CRATE
fully welcomed. From the time of the
great Catherine the Russians have always
hated their neighbors. They complain that
Germans snatch the best prizes in the mer-
camille and the bureaucratic world of Rus
sia, and they would like to put a prohib-
tory duty on their immigration. But the
Gar will probably exhaust the resources
of diplomacy before he takes step which
would LEAD to war within three months.