The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1894-05-07
BANKER oLEws' VIEWS.
The Financial Outlook as Seen From
Wall Street


New York May 5.-Wal street is rest
ing in a waiting attitude, with transac-
lions few, confidence steady, hopes many,
with no disposition to realize on holdings,
and as little 10 make short" sales.
1t may be well to understand clearly
what are the things for which holders are
waiting and why they hold on so tenaci-
ously. The main grounds Of this hopeful
attitude are these:
/. The wearying discussion Of the tariff
question is apparently nearing its end
and the prospect, at the moment, is that
by midsummer the bill will become law,
and in a form much more satisfactory to
the manufacturing interests than has
hitherto been anticipated.
2. When that conclusion is reached tho
industries and the trade of the country
will be released from the bonds of sus-
pense that has kept both idle for the
last twelve months
3. The present condition Of the crop
suggests fair probability of an album
dant harvest, which is always conclusive
TO prosperous trade and TO activity of
transportation. -
!. Europe, and especially its large in
dustrial nations, is coming out of the Sc
we're depression from which il has been
suffering since the close of 1890; the re-
covery in England, France and Germany
being especially marked This change
may be expected to show its effects in an
increased demand for our exports and a
better tone in the markets for our great
staples, as well as in an improved inquiry
Tor our investments at a later stage.
D. Europe is also emerging from its en-
tanglements of conflicting international
politics and tariffs with the attendant
constant dangers of war. For the last
ten years each successive spring has been
expected to introduce some great inter
national conflict; and though ways have
been found for staving OF the seemingly
inevitable struggle, yet it has been at the
constantly increasing expense of exhaust
I've taxation and paralyziug distrust in
international finance and enterprise,
Thanks to the conservative councils.of the
Emperors of Germany and Russia, there
is reason to hope that the causes of these
political lealousies have been so far ad-
justed as to afford grounds for the hope
ora lasting European peace. " hen these
hopes come to be verified by a fuller
knowledge of the facts of the new under
standing, the revival of confidence at the
great European centers, added to thenow
current improvement in commercial mar
kets, can hardly fail to produce an I'M
usual extent of revival in. the various
forms of investment, enterprise and spec
ulatiOn.
g. Next, it is to be considered that.
while these influences are at work to
bring about an important revival in the
Industries, the commerce and the tinan-
clal spirit of the old world, we are here
on the verge of escape from the trammeis
which have so long held the business Of
the country in suspense and extreme de
preston. Thus, on both sides the At
lantlc, we have ameliorating influences
OF the broadcast kind coming into opera
ton conformity; and it is not easy to set a
limit to the extent Of recovery into which
these tendencies may develop
In this country, the conditions favora-
BILE to revival of business are especially
important. The past twelve months OF
depression has been due almost entirely
to artificial and accidental causes, and
not TO any general intrinsically unsouud
conditions of trade. The first contribu-
tion TO the depression was pure and
simple money scare, the cause of which
has already been removed by the repeal
act. The next cause was contemplated
change in the productive and competitive
conditions of domestic industries. which,
for so long as it remained undeter-
mined produced general col
lapse of production and con
traction of consumption. But those
consequences have produced an unprece-
dented depletion of stocks Of manufact-
ured products SO soon therefore, as the
new tariff duties are legalized, what is
there to prevent a resumption Of normal
activity in every branch of business, the
consequent general employment of labor
and an attendant increase of consump-
tion by the masses2 The only cause of
deferment of this recovery that can be
reasonably suggested is the possibility
that workmen may hesitate to yield the
concessions in wages made necessary by
the lower duties and, therefore,
lower prices AS to that, it can only
be said that already labor has conceded
important reductions in wages, while
the process Of adjustment is still going
on, and the real question seems TO be, not
whether wages will be reduced at all but
whether the concessions will equal the
demands of employers. 1t is reasonable
to expect that, when labor more fully
understands the necessity for lower
wages and finds that it is being cOmpen-
stated by correspondingly lower costs OF
living, there will be no great difficulty in
affecting an equitable readiustment of the
scale of wages. While, therefore, it is
possible that some complaint may be
heard of the stubbOrnness of the wage
earning classes, yet that is likely TO prove
only transient obstacle to complete
recovery of business.
/ Inc foregoing are the main points of
the confidence which Wall street is now
putting in the early future, and upon
which it is willing to carry it's holdings
of securities rather than realize upon
them. And, to our view, this confidence
is not in any decree strained or unreason-
able. 1t is based upon a fair estimate Of
manifest probabilities. The. conditions
are not those of a deep-rooted and funda-
mental arrangement that would call for
long period of gradual recuperation !;
they are, in the nature of tran
sient obstruction which, when removed
out of the way, will admit Of a rapid re-
covery. 1t, therefore, would not be sur
prising if. when the tariff question is put
out of the way, business takes sudden
start and the trade of the last six or four
months of the year proves to be Of "a really
healthy nature. II is superfuous TO say
that in the event Of the realization of the
probabilities here foreshadowed as TO the
crops and general business, the railroads
would show a general gain in earnings
with consequent benefit to that class of
investments.