The morning call. [volume] (San Francisco [Calif.]) 1878-1895, 1894-02-07
IN ITS INFANCY.
Meteorology a Backward
Science.
so SAID PROPHET PAGUE
At Stanford University Last
Evening.
THE WEATHER BUREAU WORK.
A Popular FaIlacy Exists on This
Coast Over the Source of
Winter Rains.
THE WEATHER BUREAU WORK

A lecture On meteorOlOgy was delivered
la st evening at the Stanford University by
B. S. Pague, forecast official Of the United
States Weather Bureau in this city. Me-
teorOlogy is yet very young among the
sciences and as Mr.. Pague's discourse
was up to date what he SAID was instructive
and entertaining.
"Meteorology Of to-day" said he, Con
sIsts, first. of the theory and of deductions
from it; second. the practical applications
of these TO the current meteorological con-
ditions from which we have the weather
forecasts. There prevails relative to the
second class an erroneous impression that
daily weather forecasts are prophecies
rather than probabilities.
"In no sense are the forecasts the for
mer; in every sense are they the latter.
Properly speaking the word forecast
should be the conditions at present
are such as to indicate that the weather
tomorrow will be so and So To carry
this idea will be to properly interpret the
word forecast, and In those cases where the
weather is not such as the forecast indi-
Gated the adverse criticism INDUCED in by
SO many will be missing. Weather fore
casting is practical meteorology. 1t is the
applying of all known laws to the current
conditions and deducing probable results"
Mr.. Pague went on to say that the first
consideration OF the Weather Bureau is to
issue reliable forecasts, which are gradu-
ally becoming more valuable and more
trustworthy. and the public as a body depends
more upon them. He continued: The work
of the bureau consists OF the various ooserva-
lions OF all meteorological phenomena" he
said. 1.-THE compiling of these data and the ar
ranging OF them for the Information OF the public
and Tor study by those who are so inclined. 1t
Is only through the medium OF the Weather
Bureau that we have to-day the knowledge of
the glories OF the California climate. the climate
OF every State and the climate OF almost every
county in the United States.
THE bureau has bfanched its work out in all
directions In the line OF the practical applica-
ton OF science OF which little Is now known.
Great advances have been made during The
past twenty-five years in the development OF
attention Than ever before. Colleges and uni
verstties are including meteorology in their
course of study; the high ana common schools
have more instruction IN physical geography
than ever before. Hence IS seen the awaken
ing or developing interest In this science"
The constituents of the air were explained
and discussed. The air is mechanical mix
ture of several simple gases. But here the
lecture assumed technical turn Tor the
students. Regarding thunder-stOrms 1t was
said they produce ozone and hence purify the
air. The changing conditions in the Amos
phere give changing weather conditions. Mo-
ton OF the atmosphere depends directly or in
e,
without these the aqueous vapOr would be uni
formly distributed 10 all parts and universal
density and calm would exist. The great dis
turber OF uniformity of temperature Is the un-
equal distribution of the SIMS radiated heat
which gives rise to differences in the amount of
aqueous vapor and differences OF temperature.
These cause the density OF the atmosphere 10
vary in different places, and so atmospheric
currents are produced. Variations of solar
radiation, influence OF atmospheric electricity,
the tidal influence of the sun and moon.
moisture in the air, condensation and preclpi-
tation OF moisture were treated fully under
their respective heads, and then MIR. Paeue
briefly reviewed the history of meteOroogy.
Thermometric observations have been re-
corded In the United States since 1888, the
first Instrumental observations OF which there
Is record being al Charleston, S. G. In 1917
an effort was made 10 have Congress authorize
the registrars of the land Offices TO make me-
neurological observations, but without success.
The practical application of meteorological
laws 10 current conditions Is absolutely in its
infancy. Weather fOrecastiDg is only twenty
four years old; there are many things not
Known and as many not understood. There
are so many Investigations TO be made, so
many causes OF conditions to be understood.
When they are solved weather forecasting Will
rapidly advance to more practical good.
There exists popular fallacy over the en-
tire Pactf1e Coast that the rains come from the
south. 1t is true that the winds are from the
south, but the storm disturba from which
the rain comes is IN the north. The air moves
spirally inward, opposite 10 the movements of
the hands OF the watch, from a high to low
pressure, hence the low pressure being in the
north, the high pressure 10 the south, there fol-
lows the spiraly inward movement Of the air
into the low pressure or storm center and cauS-
ing The winds TO be sou herly previous TO the
storm. The air thus flowing into the storm Is
heated and 1t rises, Its moisture is precipitated
and further increases The area of the storm
which gradually eX ends and rain falls gradu-
ally farther and farther from the storm CENTER
The point TO be RENE mbered is the storm and
the cause or the ram are TO the north, though
the force OF the natural laws produces the south
erly winds.'