New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1894-05-18
WHEAT.
o,r,c1AL ESTIMATES ENTIRELY DIS
CREDITED.
rAi.or Of The Tribune

r,,he Editor of The Tribune
r, u,lu have to be admitted that. in the
- history of crop reporting. there has never
W." more dismal failure than that OF the Agri-
.,,,ral Department during the past year 1t
-, nv critlcising the methods OF Commissioners
80 and it was palpably true that estimates
ION far below the crops Of 1891 and 1892.
h"o H. earlier estimates of condition in 1898
-. considered by competent critics not better
w. worse than those of previous years. and as
~ soosoo advanced all confidence in the re-
" ,rder the new Administration was lost.
~ climate tor the year. 34,629.4lS acres and
sas,at 7o5 bushels was promptly discarded by
.r,de "a entirely worthless, and has been
~,rod,cted in the toughest way by the official
'.~,r,s in some Of the great wheat-growing
go When the March return came. proving
,,.,renancv OF l9l 100000 bushels between the
,sao renorts Of 1891. 1892 and 1893 and the ascer
'',.ohla distribution, II was by all understood
-. tho statstic.an was obstinatey sticking to
estimate for 1893 which must have been more
49, ,oOOOOOOO bushels out Of the way, un-
-. The consumption had strangely diminished.
~. ,or II is demonstrate that the March re-
mr., was also too low
Tho official report Of exports in April has just
-. made. and including -four, amounts to H.
40 soo hushes With the net exports for the
-'.,ors nine months. the aggregate for ten
r,,Ss Is 142.2lS.23S bushels. against l6O'l'6OlO
-. ION months Of the previous year. Adding
~. for two weeks of May, about 100000
..hn,s according TO "Bradstreets," the a.
onNo bushels required for seed and the
~..,or.,on required for food to May r. about
., ;na 600 bushels the quantity actually disposed
:, inns far Is 4733OO,0O 600 bushels, or 100000
.n,bs,s more than the Department allows as the
ia of 1893 Moreover on the 1st OF March 1t
..oronad 1860 coo bushels in farmers hands
,ra visible supply. Out of this the farmers have
80, about lS.Oco, 900 bushels for seeding spring
wheat. the exports in March. April and two
,,oots of Nav have been over 100000 bushels.
ord the consumption in ten weeks has been Co.
nm ooo bushels which would leave only about
1900 ooo bushels i'm the country. whereas there
srs e. 800 900 bushels In visible supply on me
SIon,ic coast besides all the stocks on the
Pacific and in many elevators: ana no one
inagines that there is not lett IN farmers hdius
more than 1900 600 bushels. Thus, even tne
atorcb report must have been too low. and Il is
cisar thai the yield of 1898 must have been con-
s;Sorablv greater than that report indicated.
Tb,s estimate like others thus far goes upon
Tho assumption that the quantity or wheat USED
hs The neople of this country has not materially
diminished If it has been so greatly between
March | and May II as TO rescue the esufna'es
frha
traeed the condition of the people must be most
melancholy. For the quantity actually remain
ing in the country must be at least 2o,Ooo'ooV
bushels greater than the March hsures lndicate;
but If, in place Of 6OOOO0O0 bushels consumed
within ten weeks, the people have consumed only
10000 900 bushels. the change in CONDITION mas
been quite unprecedented The official estimates
Of consumption. visible supply and farmers hold
ings would prove that the crop of 1891 must nave
heen e9OS45693 bushels. the crop OF lS92 must
have been 559S77 ASP bushels. and the crop of 1893
must have been greater than 5l6,223.43O bushels
By all that the country will have consumed or
exported March to July !, OF retained in visible
supply and farmers hands, in excess of 1850
600 bushels and II is safe that this will be found
at least 90 100000 bushels.
ACovernment report which can be shown errone-
ousohe extent of 100 900 COO bushels by other off,
cial reports and which is apparently in error 14O,-
100000 bushels out Of $4,000 600. Is not Of any
practical value. Unless the department can do
better the guesses Of some Of the unofficial crop
reporters will soon to be universally accepted
as more reliable than the statistics. so-called.
which are collected and published al the Nations