The morning call. [volume] (San Francisco [Calif.]) 1878-1895, 1894-08-16
THE BIRTH RATE.

at the bottom of the international polit
ical questions of the day lies the problem
! OF the birth rate. Upon the relative in
crease or dtminution of the population OF
rival nations ultimately depend their re-
spective power and influence. 1t is the
growth OF the American people in half a
century from II, 600. 600 to 81 000, 600 souls
which raised the republi to the first place
among nations. That growth has in this
country been due to foreign i-migra-
ton as we'll as natural increase but this is
| obviously temporary and enhemeral
factor; immigration even now is falling off
rapidly; that is probably temporary con-
dition, but some time it will become con-
slant. A nation must rely for It's perma-
nent growth upon natural increase.
Thus it would be matter of vital inter-
est to ascertain, If we could, the normal
birth rate OF the American people. I'm
fortunately our statistics on the point are
defective. We know that the general pop
ulation increased in round numbers
| 10000 600 between 1880 and 1890, and tn at
during that decade about 5000, 600 people
were received from abroad. Thus the
natural increase would seem to have been
100000. or an annual increase of 700, COO
But when we try to put this increase into
the formula OF birth rate we are beset by
swarm of embarrassing problems. Ac-
cording to the census of 1880 our birth rate
was about 3 per cent year and our death
rate about x per cent.
Mr.. francesca Nitti, who has Just writ
ten an ingenious work on Population and
the Social System" infers from figures
which he obtained that the birth rate In
the United States is low. He gives no rea-
son for his belief, but other statisticians
have come to the same conclusion. Why it
should be low Is not apparent, though vital
statistics collected in Connecticut and
Maine confirm the notion, so far as those
States are concerned. Possibly those sta.
tistics have been hastily accepted as true
OF the whole country, which would be an
error. In the countries of Europe where
vital statistics have been collected for
years. wide disparity in the birth rate is
observed. 1t is highest in Hungary and
Roumania: fairly nigh in Germany, Ire
land, Spain and Italy, and low in France,
Scotland. Norway and Russia. France re-
ports the lowest birth rate In Europe. The
rate is also low in Switzerland and Bel
GUM.
figures tend to embarrassment The high
est birth rate reported is in Sicily, where
the people are very poor, and close on the
heels of the island follow Germany, Ire
land and'the Danubian countries. in all of
which the peasant population is poverty
stricken. But the author rather incon-
sistently says further ''that every improve
me1t of the general condition. every diff
fusion of wealth, every increase of wages,
and Of the standard of living exercises a
useful influence on the birth rate" There
is in fact no answer to Bruhle's formula
that the number of marriages, and conse-
Quently the number of births, are as a
general rule in proportion to the price of
food.
Statistics are arranged also to show that
the birth rate is lowest among the rich
and highest among the poor. This practi-
cally contradicts the last preceding propo-
sltion. The birth rate is very low in Lon
don. Paris and other great cities, and high
est of all at the present time in the
province Of Quebec, Canada. where the
peasants seem to escape suffering from
want because they have few wants. Car
rying out this principle to its legitimate
deductions Herbert Spencer argued that
as civilization advances the birth rate
would decline with the innovation of pros
perity and the establishment of higher
standards of life and ideas. until it would
practically balance the death rate, But
that status is too far ahead to have any in
terest as practical problem except in GER
tain limited classes or localities. and even
there the rule does not seem to be uniform.