The Abbeville press and banner. [volume] (Abbeville, S.C.) 1869-1924, 1894-11-21
THE COTTON CROP.
WHAT Mr.. ALF. B. SHEPPERSON HAS
TO SAY ABOUTIT.

| TO SAY ABOUT 1T.
The Largest Crop Ever Made Was Nine
Million Two Hundred Thousand Bales in
1s9O-91--Half Million Acres Less Plant
! ed this Year.
CHARLESTON, S. c., Nov. 14.-With
view to finding out just how much
credit was to be given to the recently
published statement of the present cot
| ton crop of 10000, 900 bales, and to
put before it's readers trustworthy
and intelligent statement Of the cotton
situation at the present time, the
Charleston News and Courier applied
to Mr.. Alfred B. Shepperson, of New
York, the well-known cotton statistl-
clan, and author of that invaluable
trade medium of the cotton trade, Cot
ton Facts, and received the following
reply:
NEW YORK, Nov. s.-Cotton has de-
clined again today, chiefly I under
stand, upon a crop estimate just is
sued by Mr.. Neill of New Orleans, that
the crop will be over ten millions of
bales. The crop is undoubtedly a
large one, but confess that I am un-
able to see any basis for such large
estimate. The largest crop ever grown
in this country was that which was
planted in 1890. The yield of that
crop was probably 100000. The
commercial crop of that season was
1914, 900 bales and the difference be-
tween this and the quantity which 1
have given as the probable yield was
marketed in the following season.
There is no evidence whatever to
prove that the acreage of the crop now
being marketed was any larger than
that of the crop of 1S90-91, nor is there
any evidence to my mind at least, that
the weather conditions have been
more favorable this year than in 1890:
I am at a loss, therefore, to understand
to what cause or causes can be reason
ably attributed yield so much in ex-
cess of the monster crop of 1890.
The acreage in 1890 was about SO,-
500, 900 acres, and I do not think any
one has claimed or will claim that it
was any more this year. The depart
ment of agriculture has been making
since Feb. 1, a careful investigation
of the cotton acreage and has en-
ployed special agent for the purpose,
who has travelled throughout the
South, and has investigated the mat
ter, as I am informed, in the most
thorough manner possible. The Act
ing Secretary of Agriculture wrote
me on October 25, that the result of
the investigation was that the acreage
in 1898 was 19, ,525, 900 acres. There
has been but small increase in acre
age this year over 1893, the depart
ment of agriculture calling the in
crease less than 1 per cent, so that the.
acreage of the crop now coming IN IS,
according to the department OF agrl-
cultures estimate, about 1850, 900
acres.
Let us assume that the department
has underestimate it somewhat and
that the acreage is as much as 20, ,OOO,-
900 acres. This, as you will see, Is
500, 900 acres less than 1890, and yet
we are asked to believe that upon an
acreage of 500, 900 acres less than In
1890 crop of a million bales more
has been grown. I am not prepared
to accept such conclusion, because
it is utterly repugnant to reason ana
common sense.
At these low prices, or anything Like
them, the tendency will be to largely
increased consumption of cotton ev-
erywhere, and there will evidently be
upon the part of spinners a general
disposition to buy cotton greatly IN
excess of their wants for the season,
because at these prices they can well
afford to carry in the mill warehouse
a large supply of cotton In the next
season.
There can be no question that unless
the price advances very greatly by the
time for planting the next crop that
the acreage devoted to cotton vii! be
reduced to an extent that it never has
been curtailed before, from one year
to another. So great reduction IN
acreage would cause beyond doubt an
advance as great and as rapid as the
decline has been. When preparations
were made for planting this crop mid
ding cotton was worth s cents in New
York, and should there be 9 great re,
duction of acreage this spring it will
be very likely to 60 to cents s7sa{ad agad%
and the world recognizes the fact be-
yond dispute that the acreage has
been, and consequently that the sup
ply of cotton will be greatly reduced.
t sympathize deeply with the South
ern people because of the great depres-
sion which has overtaken their staple
crop, and from the manner in which a
looks to me as if when the advance IN
cotton comes it will not benefit the
planters because they will have sold
all of their crop, and that the splnners
and speculators alone will reap the
benefit of the tardy advance.
Yours very truly,
| n