The morning call., 1894-09-22
BUSINESS PROSPECTS.

A hopeful indication of commercial re-
covery j. noticed by the Iron Age. In the
three months beginning on June ! and
ending on August 81 the number OF iron
furnaces in blast increased from So to III,
nearly 100 per cent, and the weekly pro-
ducti0n of iron from 81 517 tons to 151, l13
tons, considerably over 100 per cent.
Within the past week dull0ess 10 the
market has been reported. but this was to
be expected. So rapid a recuperation was
sure to be followed bv reactions. 1t was a
demand to meet the exhaustion of stocks
during the long cessation of production.
The bank cleariugs show an improve
ment all over the country as compared
with last year. They are, of course, be-
low the clesrings of 1892. If they were
not the country would be in the middle Of
a new boom. For the present people
must be satisfied with the evidence that
there is mora business doing than there
was in the fall of 1898 and with the rea-
nable probability that, barring unex-
pected accidents, the Improvement Will
continue. Nothing can prevent it but the
failure of the great crops on which the
country relies to pay its way.
As to two of these, cotton and wheat,
the prospect is that the yield will be fully
equal to that of any year on record. Re-
liable estimates of the cotton crop cannot
be formed till the fret killing frost comes !;
but on the Cotton Exchange the talk is
that the crop may reach 5000, 600 bales, or
within $4,000 bales of the crop of 1892
The crop of 1898, which amounted to 6.71S,-
OOO bales, was disappointment and sur
prise. 1t was the smallest crop since 1887.
Hopes of bounteous crop this year are
encouraged by the law of rotation.
The Agricultural Bureau at Washington
has been putting forth estimates of the
wheat harvest which imply probable crop
of about 100000 bushels. Other au-
thorities long ago added $4,000, 600 bushels
to this estimate. and now the rep TT from
New York that wheat is selling in that
market at the unprecedented figure of 80
cents shows that the long-headed operators
at the great commercial center think even
this an underesi innate. The wheat-grower
may not realize as much as be might have
done out of a smaller yield; but The coun-
try al large will have more money ID re-
build business on.
A few weeks ago the Agricultural Bureau
put out an estimate of the corn crop which
footed up 100000 900 bushels 1t figured
that Nebraska, which has produced 30. OOO.-
goo bushels, was only good for 5000. 600
this year. This estimate has been dis
credited by the inquiries of the agricultu-
raj j,urDals of "the Northwest" The
latest estimate from Chicago is !, 8OO DOC. goo
bushels, and this is regarded by good au-
thoTities as conservative. in 1892 he crop
was only 1928, 100000, but in 1891 it was
9, 060. .000 Estimates of the corn crop
derive their chief Importance from the fact
that the yield Of corn governs the yield of
hops.
In specializing on the prospects Of COM
merCial recovery the Increased Yield OF
gold must never be forgotten. The Mint
tables, which are probably reliable, slow
that the gold yield of the world in the cal
endar year 1898 was $138, 161 zoo, against
S113, 10000 in the calendar year 1890.
Here Is a notable increase in three wears
10 the product Of the commodity which is
the measure Of value and the basis Of com
merclal credit all over the world. 1t is i'm
possible that such an increase can take
place without stimulating commerce and
adventure. The gold discoveries in Cali
fornia and Australia are supposed to have
accelerated the commercial movement of
the world 50 that progress which would
n formally have taken fifty years was realized
IN ten. The same cause must produce SINH
lar effects now in due proportion. And
though the chief addition 10 the worlds
gold supply comes from Africa it is we'll
to bear in mind that our domestic supply
is increasing quite rapidly.