The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1894-01-15
BANKER cLEws' VIEWS.
The Financial Outlook as Seen From
Wall Street.

] wall street mas Ueel ueAOlQ OF any SpeCldL
features. For the class of securities
adapted for permanent investment, such
as railroad bonds and steady dividend
! paying stocks there has been a really
active demand from the receivers of
January interest payments, with some
! advance in the price of such issues; but,
/ in the more transient operations in
stocks, the movement has continued
| limited. The various and in many re-
| spects unusual influences at present af-
| fecting the market are conducive TO some
/ degree of pOstpOnement of speculative
/ transactions; but holders are not. on that
account. the less disposed to cling 70 their
/ holdings, and the situation is intrmsically
strong enough to resist the constant
! though generally public attacks Of the
/ bears
There are, nevertheless, those who
think a revival of buying within the range
of early probabilities. The tendency in
that direction, arising from the still
growing abundance OF money and the low
rates of interest, is very generally con-
ceded; but there is some difference of
| opinion as to how far the matters depend
ent upon congressional action may permit
of such movement. 1t is perhaps safe
TO say that the calmer observers begin to
note change of feeling and estimate as
TO the future course of business. They
perceive that the extreme fright caused
by the silver panic and strengthened by
preparations for sweeping change of
national commercial policy-hOwever well
founded it may have been-has yet run
into an excess of collapse, in which coun-
| tervailing considerations have not had
their due Weight. There is undoubtedly
real force in this view, and a certain de-
gree of reaction from this eXaggeration of
fear must be forced upon the public feel
ing by the more sober-second thought.
Such paralysis of production as has
existed for the last six months is entirely
Incompatible with supplying the current
wants of consumption. Carefully COM
piled information gathered by one of the
commercial agencies from thousands of
firms and corporations shows that, for
the last six months, the contraction of
sales by manufacturers has been much
more than double that of merchants, and
that, in some important branches of
trade, the curtailment of retail sales has
been comparatively nominal. The amount
of imported merchandise going into con-
sumption at this port, during the last
half of 1898, was SS4 600, 900 less than for
the same time of 1892, which amounts to
decrease of 30 per cent while,
for the last two months, the
reduction averaged SO per cent These
facts show that, although the reduction
in the supply of goods coming through i'm
pOrtation has not quite equaled that
which has occurred in domestic sources
of supply, yet the curtailment even in this
department is in nearly double the ratio
OF the decline that is shown by Dun's sta
tistics to have occurred in the sales direct
to consumers. This process of contraction
at the sources Of supply, to an extent so
entirely disproportioned to the actual con-
sumption, and extending over more than
six months, cannot fail to have produced
a depletion of stocks Of merchandise vir-
tually unprecedented. Merchants whose
opinion is entitled to respect, tell us
that, in the leading branches Of trade, the
stocks of to-day Ido not exceed a three
weeks consumption at the present cur
tailed rate.
These facts have certainly this much
gniticance-whateyer else they may i'm
ply-that there must be an immediate
considerable resumption of production ::
and that such resumption, if conserva-
lively adjusted to the demand, can be I'M
dertaken with reasonable prospect of
pfoht-tor the relation of supply and de-
mand Is entirely in favor of the manu-
facturer This conclusion is borne out by
the process of resumption of work in iron
works, In textile factories and in their in
dustries, which is becoming more marked
every day. This resumption of work is
also evidence that manufacturers have at
AhSN ACdthHu u pOllb db WHICH JneY can
approximately estimate the conditions in
which they will be placed under the new
duties, and that consequently they feel it
safe to undertake production to an extent
compatible with their being able to con-
troll prices, leaving the ultimate rate of
output to be determined by the new
duties finally established by congress.
This puts more hopeful aspect upon
the prospects of labor, which is now suf-
fering from idleness and has lost much of
its purchasing ability. In this matter
also there has been an exaggerated mis-
apprehension. Estimates have been pub
lished of an extent of unemployed labor
which even largely exceeds the entire
number of operatives employed in the
trades referred to. The more exact in
quiry has been instituted, the more it has
become evident that the estimates of I'M
employed throughout the country have
been exaggerated, in many cases, two-fold
or even three-fold. These are discoveries
of fact which are calculated to produce a
iuster conception of the real condition of
business affairs. Wall street observers
have an eye upon this process of correc-
tion of estimates, and there are those who
look at it as the occasion for an early
restoration of confidence and revival of
activity on the stock exchange.