New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1894-03-12
WHEAT.
ERROR OF DEPARTMENT EsT1MATEs-FhoDA"i'H'
DECREASE IN CONSUMPTION


To the Editor OF The Tribune
Sir. For months these letters have unhes''a'-
,nglv nredicted that the Government estimate
Of the yield Of wheat in 1893 would prove "o''
.,or 20 ooo 200 bushels too small Indeed facts
have been given which appeared ~ ''''.'"
that The error was nearly twice as great unless
consumptIon has shrunk beyond all precedent
Now comes the proof and the predictions are
NOT only verified most completely but are sho"h
70 have been much within the truth. the guam
t,,, % wheat officially reported In farmers hands
March was ia OOOO 900 bushels. only 22oooooo
lose than n wear ago The quantity in visible
supply March 3 was 75,569.OOo, only 4ooo'VV"
husheIs less than n year ago. Thus the guam
,itv I'm eight was 1879 500 900 bushels, against
OH 5G4 900 last year. a decrease Of only 26ooooo'
bushels The stock in visible supply ana
farmers hands a year ago. with the crop ac-
cordng TO the Government report, wouid make
the wears supply only 6ll695.725 bushels But
the quantity required for consumption taxing
tre average OF Urea sury statements or popuia'oh
for the year ending March l. was 3l5'off'oVo
bushels and 54.0OO,0OO bushels are required LOT
seed while 174674,43O bushels have been eX-
ported in the twelve months. reckoning lor
February only the actual exports reported by
"Bradstreet's' for four weeks. These ngureS
show where 54221S.4 9O bushels have gone "ithii'
the twelve months. provided the consumption
hos No, decreased leaving only 69,477.295 bushels
for the visible supply and farmers hanos Marc"
I II the Government report Of yield was correct
But the quantity actually in visible supply ana
farmers hands was l20.0OO,O0o bushels greater
proof of the error OF the agricultural estimate
IS thus furnished by the same department Whch
made the error. which must be reckoned to the
credit of the department. No doubt its head
and the statlstcian both desire to get correct
information and fail because they are com
PEELED 10 rely 10 a great extent upon accounts
which farmers and their organizations systema'i-
calv distort during the season IN when the
bulk OF the crop is marketed The Consequences
Of this Organized m!sinformation are not such as
TO encourage its continuance. three years ago
the prlce OF wheat at New-YorlS at the end Of
February was 81 09ss. in 1892 1t was 81 o"'4'
I'm 1893 it was 1915 cents and this year 6l's
cents The average during the last halr or me
year. when the crop was being marketed and
the false information was most 'ndustriousiy
circulated. was 81 OF 81 in 1891. 1928 cents in
1900 and $3.50 cents in 1893. It is only necessary
70 remember that the department report in
IpIv 1901 foreshadowed a yield OF only 5il.-
600 900 bushels though the Anal report was el2-
900 900 and the actual yield probably OBS 100000;
that IN July 1892 II foreshadowed a yield or
ROT ooo 900 which Il reduced TO about oOOOOO.OO
&, sentember. though IT'S final report was DO
ooo ooo and the actual yield probably ABOUT
-eo ooo 600. that in July. 1893 1t foreshau-
ou.ed a Weld Of 393 100000. which 1t reduced III
c,,en,her 70 379 900 O00 though its maj report
u,as 2o6 600 600 and the actual yield wou'd "p-
,.o,r - have been 5l6.O0O.0OO, unless the con-
su,,n,,on has materially diminished
7, IL not a difficult matter 10 demohs'a'e
that ~ the consumption has continued as large
40 II was for fifteen years prior TO 1891 'he ue-
nartment estimates OF Yield for the paS' me
wears have been in error by lsl'oVo'ooV puS"e''
According to Treasury estimates OF popu'"'o"
tho consumption at the rate Tor previous se'
yas 3ol 900 900 bushels in 1891 3ooS'oo'o III 1872
md 3l354iOOO In the year just closed-'h d"
aol .laooo To which 1862 900 bushels mus, oe
.,,a, for three years seed To this must be
Ito, ,b. ouantItv Of wheat and -four officially
,,,r,od ne exported In excess OF imports during
three wears ending March 1-namely' ''o'4o'''io
bushels The quantity in visible supp! anu
.,.,,ora. hands March l. 1891. was l3',2ooo93
bushels. and March !. 1894. II WAS s'e""' ~
:, qis oo7 bushels. so that we have actually ac-
counted for no less than l,nfo4o''-' p"S"e' ''
,.,sa, IN three years But according to the
Government
vas only 1873 s6O725 OF course 1t Is absurd
- sunpose that any such quantity as 1871 oOoooo
husheIs came from invisible stocks. on the con-
.r,rv tho heavy fall in price and the Increase
f., visible stocks Justify n belief that the invisi-
M, s,ocps also were larger March than at the
same date I'm 1891.
I, Is equally unavailable to say. as the de-
nortmont does that n great part Of the wheat
now, on hand IS from the crops or 1881 ana 49,
hecause this only implies that the ofhciai IT,
norris for those years were more largely ana lor
rho last wear less largely. In error. the iact peis
that the systematic and organized circulation oi
false information was much more eAte"-
slve last year than in any previous year. hu'
I, makes no practical difference whether the ue-
r,rtment was in error 800 100000 bushels IN 1898
and only II 900 900 bushels In the two previous
-, ~ Woo versa The result is just the same.
II seems less difficult to assume that the low
90, mica ever known did not follow an actual
aocroass Of 100 600 900 bushels in the yield I'M
Iess the consumption materially decreased.
Taking the stocks OF wheat in farmers hands
and visible supply each year as guide. ana
assuming that wheat in other supplies was
practically unchanged. the yield must have been
at least 6sS OO0 900 bushels in 1891 about o6ooVo-
oo0 bushels in 1892. and 5l6.OOO.Uo bushels III
1909 n II was as low as 466.OOOOOO bushels iast
wear the consumption must have been reduced
hout GO 900 900 bushels about 10 per cent.
This decrease In the demand. together with the
conviction that the departments report OF yield
was greatly In error. would naturally account
for the unprecedented fall in price. 1t seems
probable that the department report OF yield
was at least 10000 900 bushels too small, and
that the consumption has also decreased about
az much In any case. the quantity actually IN
sight will suffice for four months consumption
t the full rate lO4 O00 900 bushels and for spriHg
seed 1s 600 900 bushels. and leave about 67oooooo
bushels for export. March to July l. though
only 57l24.4Sl bushels went out during those
months last year A famine in wheat IS there
fore not to be anxiously apprehended.
W. NJ. G..