New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1894-01-25
SELECTIONS FROM THE MAIL
WHEAT.

THE FAISITY OF GOVERNMENT REPORTS EX-
PORTS THUS FAR.
To the Editor Of The Tribune.
SIR: In December the total exports Of wheat.
including -four. amounted to 1l,O78,436 bushels.
against 72s9 $50 n the same month Of 1892. The
export price was the lowest ever recorded in any
month. only G5 cents per bushel against III
cents the year before. The average export price
of -four 81 II per barrel, against 81 80 for
the previous year which shows a much smaller
decLe than appeared in wheat indicating that
the milling combination was able to control
foreign markets for their product to some ex-
tent Nevertheless the decrease In exports Of
-four was remarkably large. and nothing like it
has occurred in any other month this year, the
shipments being i13O,572 barrels, against lGi0,"i5
in the previous ycar 1t is therefore probable
that the rnillers held the price so high as TO de-
prive themselves of a considerable part of their
foreign market II is we'll known that enormous
supplies from Russia and other countries nave
done much to deVresS ign wheat markets.
But it is not necessary to look beyond our own
country for causes OF an extraordinary de-
preston in price.
The chief cause Is the persistent falshca ton
of returns of yield. not only hroush speculative
reports and papers. but through Official reI"'ts
of the States. and for the last three years
through United states official reports 1t was
demonstrated last March that the Government
estimates OF wheat production n lS9l ana lS'-
had been too small by at least 1lG3',9S9 tushes:
Owing to these false reports. prices were held
so high during the greater part of both years
that much of the wheat this country mad Tor
sale found market, and had to be carried
over The same stupid falsifcations began be-
fore the harvest Of 1893 commenced IL was re-
ported that the yield would fall below @oooooooo
bushels and Government correspondents We re
either cheated into believing or persuaded that
II was to the interest of farmers 10 falsely rep
resent that the crop was sinauer by many
million bushels than 1t actually was. Months ago
| pointed out the fact that the character OF re-
ports d., ring the past few years rendered theh
quite unreliable. and that there was every I'a-
son to believe that reports Of SHORTAGE IN ~
were much exaggerated Now II Is not difficult
to demonstrate that the crop was larger than
the Government reported
Even If the Government reports Of 1881 ana
1892 were correct. the quantity Of wheat remain
ing on hand July !. 1891. must have been s''lo
bushels As the visible supply was many mill
ion bushels larger, II Is notorious that the stock
ca FRIED over must have been larger by at least
the demon strated error in the reports LOT 'ne
two previous years. as above stated. Whlch Wouiu
make the supply at the beginning OF the year yea
at least Sl.4096il bushels. Adding me oh'lai
estimate for 1893. about 3G9OOoOc0 bushels we
have Az AGO. 900 bushels az the total supply Tor
the current wear. Tho population January was
and n 4.G5 bushels per capita the CONSUMPTION
for food and the arts would be Sf6I6.2oO bushes,
10 which must be addei 5i.000.0o0 bushels for
seed 50 that 36S $50 200 bushels are required for
consumption in this country. But this would
leave only 5000 900 bushels for export. and the
quantity actually exported from July 10 THIS
date has been almost as large. Adding 10 the
preliminary return for December. above given.
the final reports Of net exports OF wheat ana
flour for five months ending with November. We
have % asS 56l bushels actually exported from
July | t. January !. against l0G.@J2.2-J Tor IN"
same months 81 the previous year. The known
exports in three weeks of January have been
S99S 300 bushels. -four Included, So that nearly
1Oi 900 900 bushels have gon, abroad already. on
Of 1903 600 900 bushels available for export during
the whole year II ,he Government report OF
the crop Of 1898 is correct.
There is not "A doubt in the mind 81 any one
who observes the unprccedentedly low prices pre-
valing in the market. the speedy and dismal
failure Of every attempt 10 raise prices. and the
enormous accumulation Of wheat IN visible sup
ply that the farmers are perfectly aware 'hAt
the supply is much greater than the Government
has estimated. 1t il safe 10 calculate that me
country is able to export 5O.oW,Vo bushflS OF
wheat from this time 10 July !. without 20 re-
ducing its stock as 10 produce any s"u"is en-
barrasgrncnt. When the end Of the fiscal year
has arrived all engaged in the trade VIII prob
ably be convinced that the yield OF 1893 was not
far from $50 900 900 bushels. even If II should not
nrovn somewhat greater ". NJ c.
New-York, January p, 1894