Daily Kennebec journal. [microfilm reel] (Augusta, Me.) 1870-1975, 1894-07-21
REVENUE ESTIMATES.
The New Wilson Bill and the Gov.
eminent Receipts.
Why The Balance Of Trade is in Our Favor
During Hard Times.

ant Secretary Of the Treasury William
j.. Curtis in answer TO inquiries on the
effects Of the new tariff. THE advanced
estimates on that subject are estimates
only and depend upon so many contin-
gencies which cannot be foreseen that no
conclusion approaching exactness is pos
slble. If you want to make a contrast ON
that point, just take the estimate made by
Mr.. Schoenhoff last winter and see how
widely it differs from estimates made
since the bill came out of the senate. OF
course the senate bill as 1t now is would
furnish ample revenue and probably a
surplus, but with the increase of popula-
ton 1t Is simply impossible to specify the
items. There is first the question as to a
speedy revival Of business, which would
greatly increase the imports. Now look at
this table. For the fiscal year 1894 the
exports exceed those of the previous year
nearly $45, 900, 900, while the imports have
50 fallen off that while the balance of
trade was against us last year nearly
$40 900 it Is for us this year $237,-
900, 900. In hard times the balance of
trade Is always heavily in our favor be-
cause prices are SO low that foreigners buy
freely Of us and the people have not the
money to buy foreign goods But here are
the significant figures. For the year 1898
the dutiable imports were $421 $50, I'll,
while for 1894 they were only $275, 092,-
961. Now, who can tell what they will be
year hence? AS to the internal revenue,
you must see our experts"
The Fight For Delay.
An hours conversation with various
parties I'm the internal revenue department
developed q general conccnsus of opinion
which may be summed up thus: The ex-
perience Of the government in 1857 and
Immediately following with the high tax
on whisky, proves nothing whatever In re-
gard to the proposed tax. There Is no
analogy between now and then. The high
tax was then new thing, the government
machinery was wretchedly imperfect, and
there was time that not more than 10
per cent OF the legal tax was collected, as
was shown by the fact that whisky sold In
open market for less than the tax. Now
the internal revenue system is remarkably
efficient, and every cent Of the tax can be
r collected
In anticipation Of the increased tax the
whisky men are taking their product out
of bond SO rapidly that in one day SO, 000,
900 were paid in tax and on another 49,,
10000 Evidently" he says, ''the
whisky men expect the tax to be collect
Ell As to the income tax, Mr.. Worth
.ngton G. Ford chief Of the bureau of sta
tistcs, thinks that the returns may go as
low as $l2, 900, 900 the first year and may
go us high as 500, 900, 600 in short time,
but the calculations by which he arrives
at this conclusion are quite complex. He
estimates that one-sixth of the total will
be collected In New York.
A Revenue Measure.
Actuary Mccoy who has figured the
rates Of interest on the varying bond
premiums and has done some calculations
Oh the tariff, says i'll "A general way that,
ms no tariff law ever did fulfill the expec-
tations of its friends or its foes, there is no
reason 70 believe that this one will. But,
assuming that there is no extraordinary
departure from the ordinary current OF
business it will prove u great success as
u revenue measure. Secretary Carlisle
has already notified the interested parties
that the collection of duties upon sugar
will proceed according to the plain mean
ing of the Wilson bill regardless of any
reciprocal arrangements of trade with
sugar producing countries IF any law"
adds Mr.. Mccoy, did work as its design
ors intended, it was the Polk Walker tariff
tCrion for next years results Between
1859 and 1912 there We're 10 tariff laws
passed, all raising tho average u little,
and Immediately after the close of the sec
ond war with Great Britain came the
Lowndcs Calhoun tariff, a compend of
all that had gone before, with many addi-
tional duties, and it was tho greatest dis
appointment of ALI ut is" concludes
Mr.. Mccoy, impossible to forcsec changes
of trade currcntsany great distance ahead"
The uncertainty in the treasury depart
nent Is certainty itself compared with
the doubt which has racked so many
members of the house. As the days drag
god ON and Senator Voorhees, repeated
promises of action were thrown upon the
market at 4 rapidly increasing discount
the most patent members lost their tenn
per, and the most hopeful lost heart. Even
the genial Mr.. Hunter of Illinois, who
had hitherto borne everything with a
smile, broke out into angry impatience,
saving: THAT man in Bible times who
said the net was spread In vain in the
sight of any bird had certainly never met
such 'gulls' as our fellows in the senate
/ believe in my soul those Republicans
will begin now and fight the whole thing
over again, item by item, and our fellows
will lot them do 1t. The Republicans
know very well that II they can put off
the action of that law till late in Septem-
Der 1t will gain them 90 seats in this
house. and they are just strenuous enough
to do 1t. What they want is to make the
date MS late rs that of the Mckinley bill
was, and If they can do it, oh, won't they
have "a good time beating us fellows over
the head!'
Passed, but Was Criticised.
The house committee on rules, on the
other hand, has been proceeding on the
theory that everything was to be done
with great rapidity. They laid off the
work so that everything could have been
out of the way of the tariff some days ago.
One day was given to the Bailey bill for a
uniform system of bankruptcy and the next
to all the other bills from the judiciary
committee. Another day was given to the
committee on military affairs, and after
that some railroad bills were to have the
right of way, beyond which the rules COM
mittee would not consent to think Of any
further delay as to the tariff bill In the
interval between the times set for leading
measures Mr.. McCreary slipped in his res
olution warmly indorsing 1.the f,rompt