The morning call. [volume] (San Francisco [Calif.]) 1878-1895, 1894-01-03
THE EVOLUTION OF HARD TIMES.

1t is an understood thing that we are
passing through a period of hard times
that business is improbable and work is
scarce. This is so generally admitted on
all sides that no one takes the trouble to
inquire how much truth there is in it. We
have figured down 10 dot how many men
are out of employment and how much it
w ill cost to feed them before they go to
work: also how little profit there is going
to be in business during the coming year
1t is taken for granted that merchants
have been either losing money or standing
still and living on their capital.
At the close of each year prudent men
of business take An account of stock and
figure out the balance on the years trans
actions. That operation was performed
last week in three of the leading grocery
houses-among otbers-in this city, and of
these three No. / reported that their
sales for 1898 were about an average,
though the profits were not as large as
usual, owing to the increased volume of
hard debts due by country customers; No.
reported that the business of 1898 would
compare fairly, both in volume and profits,
with the business of any previous year
while No. 3 stated that the business of
1898 was the best the house had ever done,
and that it was proposed 10 extend il in
1894. 1t was impossible TO obtain equally
exact details from the leading dry-goods
houses. but three prominent houses stated
broadly that they had nothing to complain
of, and entered upon the year 1894 with
good hopes.
Outside Of San Francisco recovery
n HOY in, 10 J., J
reports that there are more mills run
ming to-day than there were three months
ago, and the weekly reports of mills
starting up exceed the reports of mills
shutting down. There must be a great
many goods ordered to induce the owners
to start up their works again." The Iron
Age reports that there was "a net in
crease in the number of furnaces in blast
on December /, of this term, as compared
with November 1, and of seventeen as
compared with October l." The gain
continued throughout Deem Der. Other
trade journals report the starting up of
carshOps, glassworks, stoneworks and
furniture works. Even in the pig
iron trade, which has been much de-
pressed, it is reported that preparations
are being made tor an increased produc-
ton this year. The total product last
year was 14,518,000 tons. In addition to
this quantity contracts have been let for
the production of 100000 tons more this
year from the MesaIa range.
These facts lead 10 a suspicion, first,
that the prevailing depression has been
exaggerated, and, secondly, that recovery
from it is impending. Whenever a set
back occurs in trade the general tendency
is to make the worst of it. Everybody
measures the situation with his own yard
stick, When traders sales fall off %
per cent he thinks the end of the world is
coming, and by going around croaking ne
brings his neighbors to his frame of
mind. The notion speads through every
stratum of mercantile society. Banks stop
discoun ting and call in their loans; mer-
chants bny from hand to mouth; every
one reduces his expenses. and cuts off en-
ployes who can be dispensed with; people
wear their old clothes. This goes on until
all kinds of merchandise become scarce
among consumers. By that time the
months have rolled round, and the earth
continuing to yield her increase, the man
who grows wheat, and fruit, and cotton,
and corn, and provisions. and barley, and
wine, or who produces iron, and coal, and
silver. and lumber. finds that he has a lit
tie money to the good. He also finds that
he is short of many of the necessaries and
comforts of life. and that he has the means
to buy them. He spends his money at the
retailers, who having let his stock run
down, sends orders 10 the merchant; the
latter, in his turn, orders goods from the
manufacturer, and he takes courage to
start up his mills and re-engage his hands.
Thus gradually. first in one place and then
in another. the wheels Of trade and indus
try begin to revolve again, and a demand
awakens for labor.
That is the history Of all commercial
crises. We had the first stage of the re-
vulsion in 1893; it seems fairly probable
that we shall see the second and last stage
in 1894.