Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1894-10-06
A General Review of the Present
Political Situat: n
PROBABILITIES IN MANY STATES
Democratic Losses Expected; Popu-
list and Republican Gains.
CAUSES OF DISSATISFACTION

There is no basis upon which to form
reliable conclusion as to the complexion of
| the next House. There is much more than
| the usual uncertainty In the campaign, and
| the conditions generally are such as to per-
| pick and bewilder. Under ordinary circum-
| stances 1t would be a herculean task for
| the republicans to undertake to overcome
the immense majority which the democrats
| have in this Congress. The democrats car
| ried, at the last election, DO congressional
| districts, while the republicans had but III
| and the populists twelve. The democrats
| must lose forty-two seats in order to fall
below the majority and if all of these went
to the republicans. they would have but 1855
members. If the popu!ists hold their pres
| ent representation of twelve, to secure a
| bare majority of the House the republicans
must gain ffty-five seats. If the usual con-
ditions of the congressional campaign We're
present 1T would seem almost impossible
for this to be done, and the reduction OF
the democratic majority to a low figure
would be regarded as victory.
| What the Democrats Will Lose Sure.
AS the conditions are. however, the pros
| poets of the republicans are good. The
democrats are sure of losing twenty-five
seats, one in Connecticut, two in Indiana,
one in Maryland. two in Massachusetts, enc
in Michigan, one in Missouri, one IN Ne
braska. one in New Jersey, two in New
York, four in Ohio, two in Pennsylvania,
one in Rhode Island, two in Virginia and
two In Wisconsin. Besides these, they are
in danger of losing thirty-five others: Three
in Alabama, one in Arkansas, one in Cali
fornia, two in Connecticut, one in Georgia.
two in Indiana, one in Kentucky, one in
Louisiana, two in Michigan, one in Mime
sofa, one in Missouri. two in New Jersey.
four in New York, three in Ohio, two in
Pennsylvania, one in Rhode Island, one in
Texas. two in Virginia, two IN West Vir-
gnia and two in Wisconsin. 1t may be
said that they are in danger of losing In
other of their districts. but thesa are dis
tricts in which the danger is serious and
confessed. The loss OF seventeen out of the
thirty-five means to them the loss OF the
House.
Possible POpulist Control.
1t will be seen from these figures that the
possibility of the populists having control
Of the House by holding the balance Of
power is not extremely remote. This Is the
thing which both parties have to reckon on
and guard against in the campaign, since
little would be gained to the republicans by
depriving the straight democrats of con-
troll and giving to a small minority an I'M
natural power. The danger of such thing
coming about, however. is made more APP
parent when simply cold figures are used
for calculation than it is when the general
situation in the country is taken into con-
sideration. The populists, for the most part,
are only another sort of democrats. The
populist victories mean little more than the
triumph of the most fanatical faction of the
democratic party. For the balance OF power
to be placed in their hands would mean TIE
turning over the democratic party in Cen
gress to the most radical wing.
The Campaign Issue.
The issue in this campaign. as declared
10 ia hot
| tism and confidence the one hand and
radicalism and distruSt on tie other, and
the republicans are lighting both demo-
Gratis and populists a common enemy,
while between the populists and democrats
| in the south the battle Is being conducted
on the side for supremacy over the hete-
rogeneous organization of opposition to the
policies of the republican party Ii the
republicans can maintain this issue they
must necessarily make gains which can
not be calculated upon on the basis of the
size of the majorities to be overcome and
the customary political complexion of the
district. The situation in one respect is
not unlike that presented i'll the campaign
for the Fifty-second Congress, when the
democrats won by landslide. Figures in
that instance Were OF no value in eStimat-
ing the result An undefinable dissatis-
faction and restlessness, a sort of atmos-
pheric condition, brought about the change
which no experienced politician would have
dreamed OF calculating on. The reasons for
the unrest are different now and the dis
satisfaction Is among different class and
OF Il dtffrent Character but there appears
to be that in the air which defies iigures
and theories fall before conditions.
The Democratic Claim.
The democrats will not permit the repu5-
licans to define the issues, however They
claim the next House by a small majority
They do this upon the theory that they
must hold considerable proportion of the
doubtful districts and that it does not re-
quire that they should hold many of these
to continue in power. They argue further,
that a gain of ffty-five or fifty-six by the
republicans, which would be necessary to
| bare majority. is altogether too much for
that party to hope for. The situation, as
developed thus far in the campaign, how
ever. while indicating nothing definitely,
opens prospect for almost anything to
happen-even a landslide in favor of the
republicans. What the democrats fear is
that undetinable thing in politics, general
apathy. This means, Of course, general
dissatisfaction in their own party owing
to one cause or another.
Dfssatf sfa ctfOn I'm the Party.
There are various sources of dissatisfac-
ton and division in the party. Probably
the most serious in the party organiza-
ton is account Of disappointment in
the matter of patronage. Next to this Is
the division over the silver question, and
after that the dissatisfaction on account
Of tariff legislation. AS to the tariff, the
radicals are discontinued because more was
not done; many manufacturers and other
representatives of business interests affect
ed are dissatisfied because they think too
much was DONE and those who are respon-
sible for the bill which became a law are
indignant and moody because of the abuse
which has been heaped upon them by the
rest of the party. There is a general cause
of dissatisfaction. however, which includes
all the rest, and that is on account of the
long period of business depression and hard
times, stopping the manufactures and
throwing the laborer out of employment
and the scarcity of money and consequent
hardship of the poor and middle classes.
Hope of the Democrats.
The democratic cry in this campaign is
revival of business. Their chief hope lies in
| that. In response to all complaints their
answer is that they were not responsible for
the depression, and that revival of bust
ness has started, which will increase and
bring prosperity. If between now and cleo
ton day there is sufficient demonstration of
Increased business activity TO make it ap-
pear that it is a revival of prosperity under
the new tariff law, they will probably be
successful in the election in many districts,
fIe.I of ial, fhoyy