The record-union., 1894-11-05
" Gather forecast.
ELECTION FORECASTS.

GLASS, IN thought and activity, in which
they are most closely related, is able to
! lndulge.in some forecasts regarding the
approaching election.
In every case the representative inter-
viewed expressed his opinion freely
and calmly, as to the reasons for the ex-
listing stringency of the times, and also
concerning the issues of the campaign
now closing; likewise they each forecast
the result as it promises to their judg-
ment. These opinions are based upon
the observations of each person, and the
experience he has had in studying the
thought1of the community. Reasonably,
therefore, these observations and opin-
ions. taken as a whole and duly weighed
In an absolutely impartial attitude, bring
as to conclusions that are of high value.
The result of the crystaIlization of these
gathered opinions, and the weighing of
this mass of testimony gives conclusions
as follows, upborne by preponderance of
evidence: Mr.. Estee will receive, accord
ing to the testimony before us, about
$4,000 votes, Mr.. Budd about $4,000, Mr..
Webster some 10000, Mr.. French from
5000 to 5000. while some 10000 voters
will express no choice for Governor.
The indications relating to the certainty
OF election of Congressman, justify the
forecast that Mr.. Bowers (Republican) in
his district, the Third, will run ahead in
every precinct. There may be, possibly,
The exception Of few small precincts.
In the Seventh District, McLachlan (Re-
publican) will assuredly come out of the
election with'6,000 majority. In this dis
frlct lies Los Angeles County, which has
augmented its voting population by an
acquisition of 1000 electors within two
years last past. These additions come, in
the main, from the strong Republican
States offthe North, where party align
ment is less disturbed and political faith
holds men more closely to party. Those
familiar with the facts, and best qualified
to Judge, estimate that from rs and so per
cent. of the increase of the voting
strength in Los Angeles County is Re-
publican.
In this, the Second District. the testi-
mony sustains the oft-repeated predic-
ton in these columns-Mr. Johnson will
be elected and have the usual Republican
majority. The First, Fourth and Fifth
Districtsare somewhat involved in doubt
as to which Congressional nominee will
succeed.
Concerning the important question,
"What will be the composition of the
new. Assembly," the testimony justifies
the statement that there are strong indi-
cations that enough Populists will be
chosen to the lower house of the Legisla-
ture to give over the balance of power to
that party, so far that it will be able to
prevent either the Republican or the
Democratic parties from having clear
majority on joint ballot. However, the
Republicans clearly will have very
large plurality on joint ballot, with the
Democrats second, of course. The indi-
cations are that the Popalists will have at
least fourteen Assemblymen,
While it is to be accepted as certain that
the Peoples party will not elect a Con-
gresham, the general vote for that party
will much surprise the people who are
accustomed to forecast election results
upon the basis of such statistics as were
regarded5in the past as all but infallible
guides to sound judgment. Proceeding
upon the basis already set out, built
of the information at our command.
we find that the preponderance of opin-
ion among those interviewed supports
the theory that the Populists are drawing
about 20 per cent. of their strength from
the Democracy.
So much has been said and relied upon
relative to the vote in the San Joaquin
Valley for Mr.. Budd, that it becomes i'm
portant to note what the testimony is
which we are treating. The vote for Mr..
Budd in that valley will prove disap-
pointment to that gentleman and his
friends. Fresno County, for instance,
will give Mr.. Estee plurality Of from
800 to 400. The best information as TO
Populist strength in that county indi-
Gates that it is 1900.
Out of the 500 persons interviewed as
representative of classes and interests
most closely related to the contest of to-
morrow. fully 500, upon questions of pub
lie policy, expressed the opinion that the
commercial and financial stringency of
the day is due to the decentralization of
silver. Among this 500 the opinion is
confidently expressed that prosperity
will mot return to the country until free
coinage is re-established on the basis of
IS to 1. A very large number of those
fsvoring the rehabilitation of silver take
the position that the condition of the
country cannot be made worse, and that
$, radical change of policy to free coinage
that is to say, unlimited coinage of
silver on the basis of the ratio named
offers at least hope of return to pros
perity. The thought that is substructural
of this freely expressed opinion grows
upon the belief that if present conditions
are to be accepted as logically resulting
from operation upon gold basis, then
none of the misfortunes predicted by the
friends of the single standard can be as