Birmingham age-herald., 1894-11-13
HOLD YOUR COTTON. An Expert Cotton Statistician Writes About the Staple. THE CROP 0VERESTIMATED And the Result Will Not Be as Great as PrediCted-Read
 and Ponder.
THE CROP OVERESTIMATED

CHARLESTON, s. o., Nov. 12.-With view to finding out just how much credit was to be given to the recently published statement of the present cotton crop of 10,- GOO ,000 bales, and to put before it's readers trustworthy and intelligent statement of the cotton situation at the present time, the News and Courier applied to MT. All fred B. Shepperson of New York, the we'll known cotton statistician, aad has received the following very lucid and satisfactory reply:
 NEW YORK, Nov. 8.-Cotton has de- clined again today, chiefly, I understand, upon crop estimate just issued by MT. Neill of New Orleans that the crop will be over 10 ,0OO ,000 bales. The cotton crop is undoubtedly a large one, but must con- fess that I am unable to see any basis for such large estimate. The largest crop ever grown in this country was that which was planted in 1890. The yield of that crop was probably 9, 200, 900 bales. The commercial crop of that season was 8, 674 ,000 bales, and the difference between this and the quantity which have given as the probable yield was marketed in the following season. the acreage of the crop now being mark ted was any larger than the crop of 189091, nor is there any evidence, to my mind at least, that the weather conditions have been more favorable this year than in 1890. am at loss, therefore, to understand to what cause or causes can be reasonably at- tributed yield so much in excess of the monster crop of 1890. The acreage in 1890 was about 20, ,50O, 900 acres, and I do not think any one has claimed or will claim that it was any more this year. The de- partment of agriculture has been making, since February 1, careful investigation of the question of the cotton acreage and has employed special agent for the purpose, and has investigated the matter, as l am informed, in the most thorough manner possible. The acting secretary of agricul- ture wrote me on October 25 that the result of the inves- tigation was that the acreage in but small increase in acreage this year over 1893, the department of agriculture calling the increase less than per cent, so that the acreage of the crop now coming in is, according to the department of agri- culture's estimate, about 19, ,650, 900 acres.
 Let us assume that the department has underestimated it somewhat and that the acreage Is as much as 20, ,000, ,000 acres. This, as you will see, is 500, ,000 acres less than in 1691, and yet we are asked to be- lieve that upon an acreage of 300 ,000 acres less than in 1890 a crop of 1000, GOO bales more has been grown. am not prepared to accept such a conclusion, because 1t is utterly repugnant to reason and common sense. At these low prices, or anything like them, the tendency will be to largely increased consumption of cotton every where, and there will evidently be upon tho part of spinners a general disposition to buy cotton greatly in excess of their wants for the season. Bought at these prices they can well afford to carry in the nill warehouses large supply of cotton into the next season. There can be no question that unless the price ad- vances very greatly by the time for planting the next crop that the acreage devoted to cotton will be reduced to an ex- tent that it never has been curtailed be- fore from one year to another. So great reduction in acreage would cause beyond doubt an advancs as great and as rapid as the decline has been. When preparations were made for planting this crop middling cotton was worth 8 cents in New York, and should there be a great reduction of acreage this spring it win be very likely to go to cents again soon after the next crop Is planted and the world recognizes the fact beyond dispute that the acreage has been, and consequently that the supply of cotton deeply with the southern people because of the great depression which has overtaken their staple crop, and from the manner in witch cotton Is being rushed to market it looks to ne that when the advance in cotton comes it will not benefit the planters, bS- cause they will have sold all of their crop, and that the spinners and spectators alone will reap the benefit of the tardy ad- vance. Yours truly,
 ALE B. sHEPPERsoN.