Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1894-10-24

however, because 1t promises that the only
new element in the problem is the increased
new elements One is the reapportionment
act, and the other is the dissa tisfaction
which exists in Illinois, as in the whole
country, with the democratic party.
Elements TO BE Considered.
Apply, then, these two potent influences to
the estimate above of 100 democrats 81
republicans and populists. The reappor-
tionment act was based on the vote of 1855
when the republicans carried Illinois by
1900 votes. Most people forget this.
Based on the 1883 vote the trainers of the
reapportionment act considered il good
for ten or twelve additional democratic Rep
resentatives. In view of the vote of 1892
1t is worth at least IL democratic votes in
the next legislature, and these must be
taken from the republican strength, so
thai. considering the populist strength and
the reapportionment act merely, The next
Illinois legislature ought to stand demo-
Gratis, 10; republicans. 81; populists, Ia
total strength against the republicans of 100
votes, as compared with 81. To carry the
legislature, then. the republicans in view of
the reapportionment act and the increased
popullst strength, must gain in some way
Il votes. So that the whole question of the
reelection of Cullom, or the election of
MacNeagh, or the choice of some conpro-
mise candioate. upon whom the democrats
and populists can agree comes right down
to this: Is the democratic dissatisfa ction
IN Illinois enough to give the Republicans
- votes, which they need in the next legis-
lature? o'S
This dissatisfaction is undoubtedly good
Tor very stable republican Increase but
tWenty-one votes are good many to gain
W a legislature that has only 2O4 all told.
aha me conclusion which the writer draws
AFTER estimating all the factors and irving
faithfully to give each its due weight from
a non-partisan, conservative standnoint "a
s SIN TINS; That the probability is that in
me next Illinois legislature there will be
SIX or seven populists, who are very UlxeIv
TO hold the balance of power with the re-
publican and democratic strength nearly
equally dtvided-say 90 each, or 100 demo-
democrats and % republicans
Republican leaders do not fancy these
ngures. They deny their accuracy and SO
60 democratic and populist Chiefs But the
pald fact Is that in order to obtain IO3
votes in the next Illinois legislature the re-
pubiicans will have to look to an old-fash-
Toned republican landslide for assistance
If Illinois does as Maine and Vermont did
.he Republicans Will control the next legis-
iature by few votes. But I'm order To 40
so they will have to carry the state Inv
4o,oOO or $1,000 clear majority, I'm view OF
tne nanoicap or the reapportionment act
whether they can do this seems more than
doubtful Populist gains are not going to
help the republicans a bit, positively. They
VIII be of assistance only in decreasing
democratic strength. In so far as the actv
al result is concerned and results are ns,,-
ally what politicians are after in an cleo
ton, the republicans will not be a bit bet
ter on If the populists elect twenty-five
members Of the legislature That fact can
not help the republican candidate much.
IL VIII only fnture the democrats.
In the Congregational Districts.
The congressional districts were never so
hard to estimate. 1t looks now as IL the
republicans will gain four Congressmen
from Illinois The chairman of the populist
state committee told the writer yesterday
that his party would elect two members OF
Congress from Illinois. Nothing except this
expression of opinion from him indicates 1t.
There Is only one district in which the
populists appear to have a fighting chance
John Il. White, a sensible man for q popu-
list, has show to be elected from one of
the Chicago districts; but that is all.
One of the piuckiest fiA hts that is being
made in the campaign is being made against
big odds by man well known in Washing
ton He is Hugh Reid Belknap, son of
Grants old Secretary of War Mr. Belknap
is running against Congressman Mccain In
district almost hopejessiy democratic But
he Is making friends wherever he goes. and
ne viii poll a vote that will surprise his
doesn't seem possible that he can be elected,
however.
Some Of the well-known faces in the ILL.,
nois congressional delegation will undoubt-
edly be back in Washington in the next
Congress. Joseph G. Cannon will surely be
Reelected. and SO Will Mr.. Hitt. OF these
two there seems little doubt. Mr.. Ffthian
also probably Will go back, and it looks as
IL Mr.. Foreman would. Fithians district is
the nineteenth, and he Is waging a grand
campaign there. Since his return from
Washington at the close of the last Congress
he has been making an average of two
speeches day to his constituents and he
Is being received with enthusiasm William
r. Morrison will help him cut soon. 1t Is
understood.
Sprfnger's Lonely Fight.
With regard to Mr.. Springer. very much
stranger things might happen than that he
should be defeated. His district at its best
Is not Overwhelmingly democratic Twice
in the last few years the republicans have
come dangerously near carrying II.
This year very popular man. Maj Con-
molly. ts In the field against Springer and
reports from the district Indicate that Con-
molly, BY reason Of his personality IL se-
curing great many democratic votes MI.
Springer Is wagiug pretty lonely fght too