The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1894-10-31
Tho Probabilities Calmly Considered

The city registration is about the same
this year rs II was in 1899, or about
BOO, 1000. It is more than in 1898 by about
$4,000. Probably, therefore, the total vote
polled next Tuesday will be about the same
az IL was in 1899, or about gas 900. Deduct
ing the scattering vote, Socialistic, Populis-
tic, Labor, and Prohibition, the aggregate
Democratic and Republican vote is likely
~ he about 100000
With such vote, unless there I've politi-
cal change amounting to- revolution, as
compared with 1892 and 1893 and the past
experience of New York generally, the
election Of GRANT by large majority is
unquestionable. He Is the only and the
regular Democratic candidate for the office,
and twice before he has triumphed over the
combined Republican and Mugwump oppo-
sition against which he is now contending.
The sevcrest test to which the strict par
tisan loyalty of the Democratic masses Of
this city has been put was applied last year
by the candidacy Of Judge MAYNARD for
the Court Of Appeals. He was assaulted with
extreme bitterness by both Democratic law
yers and newspapers, and the campaign
against him was even more rancorous than
NHdt noW Nuktt bkHlISt phhNl, tHt rep
resentative Of Tammany Hall, or the only
Democratic organization. In the nature
Of things it was also more successful
than the present assault can be en-
pected to be, for the people had become
accustomed to put aside their partisan di-
visions in voting for Judges OF the Court OF
Appeals, candidates for that judicial place
sometimes receiving the nomination and
vote of both parties without regard to their
own partisan associations. The conditions
are different when 1t comes to candidates
for the Mayoralty. As in the case of SCOTT,
fusons for their election are unsuccessful.
Allowing, however, that GRANT will poll
only the percentage Of the total vote which
was received by Judge MAYNARD, he will
still be elected by a large majority. The
aggregate vote cast for Judge Of the Court
Of Appeals last year was 223, O49, of which
MAYNARD received 127, 1868, or about 81
per cent. Even IL the vote for GRANT be no
greater proportionately, he will win, with
an aggregate Democratic and Republican
vote Of 265, 900, by $4,000 majority over
STRONG, the Republican candidate.
The high-water mark OF the Republican
vote Of recent years was reached in 1892,
"h'h oub VI II iekiSbEutlOll dDOuu tne SaUle
as now, HARRISON received about 09, 900
votes. The Republicans boast that they
will increase that number this year by from
5000 to 10000 because of the bad times,
and perhaps they might do it IL they had n
square ticket Of their own to vote for; but
on the municipal ticket made up for them
this year Col. STRONG is the only Republ-
can. and past experience shows that not
even the regular party vote can be obtained
for such fusion ticket. Even IT,
with the aid Of the Mugwumps and
o-Goos, they poll 1000 votes, about
rs, 900 more will be required to beat GRANT
next Tuesday, and these must come from
the Democracy alone. Last year BARTLETT
ran about $4,000 votes ahead OF PALMER,
Republican candidate for Secretary of
State, and those votes consequently repre-
sented all the Democrats and Mugwumps
who could be scared up to vote for
Republican Judge for the Court of Appeals |
even in that year OF unprecedented party |
boiling Deducting the Mugwumps and |
Goo-Goos, already allowed to STRONG, |
there remain about 10000 Democratic |
voters, or the number of disgruntled |
Democrats who can usually be brought out |
A' WHICH gives Jnem
an opportunity to display their crankiness,
rs, for instance, in the campaign of Great |
SCOTT. who is now magnifying his impor-
lance in behalf of STRONG. Even IL their num- |
her were doubled this year, GRANT could win |
by $4,000, Such an addition 10 the body of |
Democratic malcontents would OF itself in
dictate n political revolution in this Demo
cratic stronghold but 1t might go even
further and increase the number OF boilers
by 10000, and still GRANT would be elected.
STRONG cannot be elected unless from one
fifth to one-quarter Of the Democrats OF |
New York are willing TO turn around and
vote FOR n Republican.
GRANT, accordingly, cannot be defeated
unless there is in New York a political
revolution unprecedented in magnitude
sponsors are going so far as to
predict for him "a plurality over GRANT Of
from $4,000 to 10000. Great SCorT puts
Il at $4,000; hut he cannot get it unless the
lhmocratc party has been rent in twain.
The political situation in such an event
you'd he exactly reversed from what it has
always been. Is that possible?