New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1894-02-19
SELECTIONS FROM THE MAIL.
WHEAT
HOW THE LOWEST PRICES on RECORD CANE
TO PASS.


To the Editor Of The Tribune.
Sir: The final statement of exports Of wheat
.or the month of December shows that, In
Guiding -four Il, POI 276 bushels went abroad from
al ports In excess Of wheat and flour imported,
against Il, SAC for the same month Of 1892.
Thus the net exports for the last half of 1898
were e611J4 0l bushels against 106.959,lS9 for the
last half Of the previous year. In January the
exports. just reported. -four included were H.
$4,000 bushels, against 13,S96,59S last year
Adding exports this month thus far reported
the total since January has been about 10
OOO0 900 bushels. so that in all about 114,0OOcOO
bushels have gone abroad during tie crop year
thus far.
1t has been obvious for some time that the
movement to foreign countries and the condi-
ton of the markets could not be explained con-
sistently with official reports of yield. unless on
the theory that there has been a sudden and
great decrease in the domestic consumption of
wheat To some it has seemed OF late not i'm
probable that the consumption has within the
past year or two materially declined. But II is
well to remember that for more than thirty
years In each successive period for which the
consumption can be approximately tested, TAX
Ing the official reports Of yield and o. exports
rs a basis the consumption per capita appears
to have increased with the exception Oh Il sllS"'
decline in the years 1871 after the panic OF lS"
Even then the decrease in apparent cohsuihp-
ton was so small To be practically inslghlii-
can't But now, if the official reports Oh re-
cent crops are supposed to be correct. tiieIe
can be no wheat left in the country at N'iS ..o'
save about 1l4,00 10000 needed for four Ho'ilns use
as food or for seed. else the consumption OF
whea, has fallen off in a starting anu Wholly
unprecedented manner. 1t is easier 10 uelie,e
that the reports are in error ana IL tne! a'v -
error at all the discrepancy may easily ne up
posed large enough To reconcile other RECORDS
with consumption assumed to be pF"cucaH'
unchanged. -.
Al the beginning Of the year. assuming that
the report Of wheat in farmers hands about
year ago was correct and that the accounts OF
yield for the two previous years were 'heIeIulc
Incorrect the stock OF wheat on mana ihuSt NAY
been about 81 .40361 bushels According 70 ule
latest Government estimate, the crop OF idSt
year was but 800, 100000 bushels. making me
f,ll suppv for the crop year only 41OO0.UOO Dusn-
els but the quantity required Tor 1000 anu SOU
s about 369 600 900 bushels and only lOSOOoVV0 ousr
els would be available for export. But as iiOVV-
600 bushels have already gone abroad, IL Is eNI.
dent that the supply for export, on the oaSls "
official reports. has been more than eNhaus'Tu
A more reasonable estimate mas been maze ny
The Cincinnati Price Current" namely, that the
WELD of 1898 was about 450,0O0OOO bushels, Whch
with the stock brought over from previous !edIs
would make the supply 531 coo 600 bushels. and
this would leave about As 900 bushels Tor eX-
port after February Il. But even this estimate
scarcely seems 10 account for the enormous N 100
ible supply which is still more than EOoOOoo
bushels or for the extraordinarily low prices
which have recently been realized in the markets
In the month Of February thus far the aver
age price of wheat at New-York has been about
e3 80 cents per bushel against 66SS in January
and 6666 in November last which was up 10
that time, the lowest monthly average ever
known For the last half Of the year 1898 the
average was but 6SS9 at New-York, and was
more than 10 cents lower than in any other year
OF which records have been preserved. 80 sur
Drisng fall occurring during the winter. when
the supplies OF wheat coming from the farms are
cessarily smaller than they are likely TO be at
other seasons, is not explained by any eXtraor-
binary scarcity Of money for use in speculation.
nor can ii be assumed that all the farmers or the
wheat-producing States have been reduced 10
such extreme necessity that they have been
obliged TO sell the whole of their crop at the
lowest prices ever known. To accept such eX-
planaticns Is to overtax human credullty. Inc
more reasonable presumption is that the stock
of wheat actually available in the wheat grow
ing States Is larger than has been anticipated.
and, perhaps, larger than the latest es1lnates oi
Wel-informed Western journals. w. NJ U.
New-York, Feb. II, 1894.