The morning call., 1894-04-04
WHEAT, PRESENT AND FUTURE.

An intelligent review of the wheat
market. past and present, with pros
pective glance at the future, appears in a
morning contemporary from the pen OF
Mr.. ID. r Sessions. The writer shows
how wheat has defined in the last twenty
years from 81 II bushel 10 60 cents,
though there has been no material ID
crease In production for ten years and the
consumption must have increased with
population. He also demonstrates that
the cost Of production and TRANSFORMATION
has not decreased so materially as to war
rant the depreciation which has occurred.
BE finally draws a parallel between the
decline In the UIice OF silver and the de-
cline Ia the price of wheat, showing that
the former has fallen in twenty years 4S
per cent and the latter % per cent. and
suggests, rather tentatively than conf
IDENTIFY, that the one may have had some
thing to do with the other.
Perhaps IL we take into the account the
depreciation which has taken place in
all commodities since the reaction from
the paper money era Of the war it may
further help US to a plausible solution.
Both raw sugar and middling npIands
cotton have fallen 80 per cent in value
since 1872; so has wool. and the decline in
bar iron has been still greater. Statistical
tables for the past twenty years show that
from the time when the effects of the
paper money era ceased TO be felt almost
all comm ODDITIES began to shrink in money
value. and that silver and wheat merely
obeyed the general drift
Still there are reasons against decline
in wheat which do not apply 10 cotton or
silver. OF both these last the production
has doubled in the last twenty years. and
though the consumption has increased the
increase has not been in anything like the
same ratio; whereas our wheat crop In
1893 was about the same as the crop of
1883 while the population Of this country
increased in the interval about Il, coo. O00
and the population Of Europe likewise
showed q gain. II is evident that the
whole secret OF the depreciation Of the
great cereal staple has not been discovered.
Statisticians figure that the worlds crop
of 1898 fell snort Of the require ments OF
wheat-importing countries by an amount
VariOusy estimated at from 100000 to
81. 900, 600 bushels. This deficit must be
supplied either by the United States. or by
Russia, or by India, or by the Dapubian
provinces, with some help from the Ar
gen tine Republic or Australia. II is not
easy 10 see which Of them can spare such a
quantity. India has not been able TO in
crease her export for many years. Russia
is short. If we increase our shipments
above the 95. 600, 900 bushels which are sup
posed to be cur available surplus for ex-
poIt We shall % into next crop year with
no reserves Yet in spite Of all the mar
ket is dull, and there are no signs of recu-
peration from the late decline. In attempt
ing to account for the anomaly something
should perhaps be allowed foT the demon
allied condition CT the various wheat mar
kets, which has resulted from wild specu-
latiye movements. For ten years specula-
tors have under AIKEN one bull movement I
after another, and have generally been led
into insensate schemes TO corner all the
wheat in sight. AS rule these schemes
ended in failure. Nearly every one who
has bought wheat for the rise in the past
ten years has lost money. The result has
been a profound encouragement among
dealers and the establishment of bear
domination in the wheat markets. At
Chicago it has passed into proVarb that he
who wants TO make money In wheat must
sell that which he has not got.
California enjoys one comfort. Owing
to their proximity TO t;dewater the Califor-
MIA wheat-growers get 10 cents more for
their product on the farm than the wheat
growers Of Kansas and Nebraska. This
should tell in the long run. With modern
machinery in this climate it ought to be
possible to grow wheat to sell at profit
at 80 cents bushel On the farm. Thus,
even in the present depressed condition of
the industry. the California farmer may be
able to live, and when the turn comes,
which is confidently expected. he may
once more expect to lay by money out Of
the proceeds of his farm