New-York tribune., 1894-04-30
TIE OUTLOOK as TO THE TdEIFF.

II is no longer denied that the tariff bill is
undergoing reconstruction again. and as usual
in secret. The cdict has gone out illat the bill
must be passed by Democratic votes, no matter
what concessions may be found necessary 10
secure those votes. This casts upon Demo-
cratic Senators who represent manufacturing
States a degree of responsibility which they
will find extremely inconvcnicnt. Moderate
changes are now reported in many schedules
particularly return 10 specific duties i'll prod
uctS of iron and steel. which is real gain
though q return 10 specific duties on all textile
goods would be more valuable 70 the country
as such goods are immeasuraby more liable 10
be undcrvalucd. As the accounts which leak
out are not entitled To the utmost confidence
and the process of reconstruction is cOnfcSscdly
unfinished, that nobody can say what shape
the bill may yet take in the Senate, the details
cannot he advan;agcouSly discussed 1t is very
clear however, that the results of recent cleo
tions have convinced the Democratic majority
that its free trade foOliShncsS must be par
italy suppressed again in order TO save even
Il fighting chance for the future
1t is Of much practical importance 10 Judge
how business and industries may be affected
by the bill likely 10 be passed. Any conclusion
must be highly cOniectural, for when the Senate
has passed measure the character of which
cannot be wholly forcSccn, the House may re-
jcct or alter It. and the outcome Of committee
Of conference Is not 10 be predicted even by
the members after their appointment. still il
may be inferred that a measure reducing duties
nearly if not quite much as the pending bill,
and substituting whiskcy and sugar taxes and
Il modified income tx will probably be passed
after some weeks Of discussion. Whether the
T. loss
may not make much practical difference cx-
cept 10 wage carners In very many cases, the
manufacture cannot be sustained with any re-
duction of wages that is possible In other
cases. the smaller reduction Of duties may cn-
able manufacturers TO keep works in opera
ton with Il reduction of wages whereas with
a larger reduction Of duties they would not be
able In other cases still. the manufacture will
be able TO continue in either event but the
greater the reduction in duties the lower must
be the wages paid.
The fact has 10 be faced that even those
manufacturers who are most thoroughly ac-
quaintcd with their business and with the cost
of producing similar goods abroad. cannot de-
terminc in advance what the conditions are 10
be after the pending hin has passed. In q great
many cases the question can only be settled
by costly and perhaps runOus experiment.
In other cases the manufacturers will feel
assured that they can continue production, but
will have to face demands for restoration Of
wages TO the old figures. and may presently
find that they are forced 10 stop production
entirely, or else TO produce at a loss. II is 10
be remembered that the wages paid in great
majority Of establishments have been reduced
during the past year. with the idea that the
reduction would only be temporary If business
should revive. In almost every instance Il
restoration of wages will be demanded, II
enough business is secured 10 start the wheels
again, and then ii will be 4 question whether
the establishments can sustain themselves
against foreign competition
1t is the prevailing impression among
bankers and business men, not including manu-
facturers directly affected by changes of duty,
that almost any decision by Congress win
bring speedy relief and increase in the volume
of business II would be wise ~ accept this
opinion with great caution. The manufacturers
themselves are very much in doubt about il.
and little as they can anticipate what con
ditonS may exist In the future. incline quite
generally 10 the belief that moro establish
ments are now in operation than can continue
to operate after Democratic tariff has gone
into effect Unfortunately for the country. and
especially for the wage carncrs, the question
can only be settled by most costly and pain
ful experiment.