The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1894-01-01

| size and ~ efficiency, aad her navy has at
talncd a strength. particularly in the Medi-
terrancun, whore her ironclads are concen-
trated, which excites the gravest misgiv-
ings in Great Britain. She has a more
stable Government than she has had for
many years or seemed few weeks ago
| to have any prospect Of possessing. The
bomb exploded In the Chamber Of Dep
uties has enlisted all the forces of the ma
ton in the cause OF order; has kneaded
three-fourths Of the legislature into COM
pact and resolute party: and has increased
the ministerial majority from little more
| than thirty 10 upward OF three hum
dred. Since the palmy days OF the
Second Empire. France has not had
80 strong n Government or one 80 we'll
| qualified to engage In great war "a that
OF which NJ. CAsTMIR-PERIER Is the head
A war with England would BIO quite as pop
ular with Frenchmen rs a war with Ger
many, and the main objection to such a
contest would be the danger that the Triple
Alliance might eventually be drawn into it.
We ourselves believe that the Berlin Gov
eminent would be inevitably swept into the
contest, whatever might be its original in
clinaton toward neutrality. A French oc.
cupation OF Egypt. especially II this were
followed by q substitution OF French for
English ascendancy in the Mediterranean.
would be fatal to the interests OF Italy; and
Austria, which has 80 much at stake In the
Balkan Peninsula. would doubtless fight
sooner than see Constantinople at the
mercy OF the Russian ironclads. So that,
sooner or later, Germany would probably
yield to the pressure Of her allies and
throw her sword into the scale.
Assuming that tho rumors Of impending
war will prove after all. unfounded, and
that the ensuing twelvemonth is to be, like
the last. year OF peace. we should find 1t
easier to outline the prospects of the
various European States. In France. the
Anarchists have succeeded in provoking a
reaction against socialism 30 violent and
90 deep-scated that 1t seems likely to last
for a long period. With the Socialists, the
advocates OF constitutional revision have
been reduced to impotence. The present
Government, which represents great ma
1orlty OF the Chamber and OF the people,
has set It's face against any change
in the methods OF choosing q Presi-
dent OF the Republc: against any
interference with the Senate; and
against the separation OF the State from
tho Church. The only concession which It
has made to the Extreme Left Is to consent
to the appointment OF a standing commit
tee OF the Chamber. to which shall be re-
ferred all bills affecting the relations OF cap
ital and labor. The programme OF the Min
istry is one OF quiescence with regard alike
to political and economical questions, ex-
cept that it will undertake to refund large
part Of the national debt at q lower rate Of
interest The only incident. outside OF
war. which may be expected to create
good deal Of excitement is the choice OF
successor to NJ. CARNoT in the office Of Chief
Magistrate. Some time during the next ten
months the two branches OF the legislature
will convene in Joint session for that pur-
pose. or the present 800 Senators,
1t Is said that NJ. CARNor can count
upon 200 partisans. But too much weight
ought not to be attached to the esti-
mate, seeing that upward OF $50 seats In
the Senate will become vacant and will
have been relllled before the election
takes place. or the 5Sl Deputies, 1t
now seems probable that something like 200
will vote for NJ. BRIssoN. while the re-
malnder will be divided between NJ. CARNor,
NJ. CAsIMIR-PERIER. and NJ. DUPUY. In
asmuch as majority of the whole 8sl
members OF the joint congress will be
needed by the successful candidate. 1t Is
impossible to predict the outcome. All that
we can say with confidence is that the NOM
inee will be classed among tho Moderate
Republicans. Perhaps he will be dark
horse like NJ. CAvAIGNAc.
In Germany, assuming that peace pre-
walls In Europe. the public mind will be
mainly interested in three questions: Will
the commercial treaty with Russia be sane
toned by the Reichstag? VIII tho new
taxes proposed in order to defray the cost
OF the increase OF tho army be adopted
And will the Jesuits be recalled ? The three
questions are closely interviewer. owing TO
the disintegration Of political parties and
the consequent difficulty of constructing
a Government majority. The so-called
Agrarians. who include most OF the Conserv-
alive landowners. formerly the maInstay OF
BISMARCK. are now under the leadership OF |
his son. Count HERBERT, and are even |
more resolutely arrayed against tho COM
mercial treaty with Russia than they showed |
before the recess. against the |
treaties with Roumania. Servia. and Spain. |
They hold that the rye. oats. wheat. and |
land ought not to be exposed to rulnous |
with imports from Russia.
They point out that Germany. unlike Eng
land. is able to feed her own popu- |
lation. and they proclaim 1t the |
part OF wisdom to encourage her to
do SO. That Chancellor CAPRyI has grave
doubts OF his ability to pass the measure
seems plain from the latest kilograms from
Berlin. according to which he has deter
mined to undertake no other business OF
Importance during the remainder OF the
present session. The fiscal programme de-
vised by Herr MIGUEL. with reference to
the new expenditure caused by additions to
the military force. Is to DO deferred to the
next session. and, il then rejected. will
be made tho basis OF an appeal to the
electors. II both the Russian treaty
and the Tax bill should be passed through
the support of Clerical members OF the