Blackfoot news. (Blackfoot, Idaho) 1891-1902, 1894-06-16
The G0nd Times Coming.


business will resume its activity ia a
short time. The delay in passing the
tariff bill has prolonged the period of
.dullness and of liquidation, but no
tariff policy, good or bad, when once
fixed, is likely to prevent the brisk
movement of trade which has always
marked the years after the great COM
mercial crisis and the temporary sus-
pension of new enterprises. 1t is
probable the activity will be abnor
NAL for time, ON account of the ex-
haustion of retail and wholesale stocks
by suspension of production during
the past ten months. Foreign imports
are likely to pour into the country in
heavy volume to take advantage OF
the new duties, but their effects in
diminishing the demand for domestic
products ought to be largely Offset by
increased buying by retailers to re-
plenish their stocks and by consum-
,ers who feel the effects of the return
of prosperity.
The business interests of the coun-
try standing at the threshold of new
period Of activity, of speculation and
of great enterprises, will be subject
to the dangers which usually accom-
pany such period and the spirit to
which it gives rise. Prices will rise
above the minimum level of the pc
riod of liquidation, if the history of
all crisis is repeated, and the steady
rise of prices and in the volume of
consumption will stimulate overpro-
duction and after u series of years
bring in a new period of suspension
and of liquidation. So long as the
fever of prosperity does not 60 be
yond the limits of good sense and
prudent risk, the period of suspension
of activity will be less severe, and
will do no serious harm except to the
weak and incompetent establishments.
The spread of knowledge and of the
principles of sound banking and safe
investment during the generation are
likely to prevent in the future any
such prostration as occurred in 1857.
The banker or merchant tempted to
assume risks and to presume too
much upon the future should not for
get, however, the prudent and pene-
trating analysis which the eminent
English economist Walter Bagehot
gives Of the real effects of the rise of
prices.
One of the negotiable results of
period of liquidation ls the accumula-
tion of idle money in the banks such
as has been witnessed in New York
during the past six months. This ac-
cumulation which reduces the profits
of the holders while it is drawing no
interests, naturally stimulates loans at
a low rate as soon as confidence is re-
stored. The danger of the great spec
nlative eras Of the past has lain in
the fact that the desire to derive
profit from these boards of money and
the ease with which they have been
open to borrowers haye resulted in
reckless loans upon purely speculative
security. The danger of this is less
under the conditions of the modern
industrial world than it was in the
early years Of the century or during
the period Of paper imitation before
1873. The very fact, however, that
the world is immensely richer than it
was IN those days goes to Offset in a
measure the fact that il is immensely
more enlightened; for the enormous
accumulations of idle capital in this
country, in Great Britain, in France,
in Belgium, and now in Germany,
which is rapidly forcing its way into
the ranks of the great industrial coun-
tries, must find employment, and the
greater the surplus Of capital beyond
the needs OF well.established enter
prises, the greater the risk that some
OF it will be employed in speculative
and fool-hardy ventures. Trade Jour
nal.