The morning call. [volume] (San Francisco [Calif.]) 1878-1895, 1894-02-26
THE WHEAT CROP OF 1898.

The wheat movement confirms the
doubts which The CALL expressed re-
garding the accuracy of the Government
report OF the crop of last year. That report
figured the crop at 500. 900. coo bushels. The
surplus over from previous crops. when it
began to be harvested, is known 10 have
been 81 ,409,641 bushels. Thus the guam
tity available for consumption, seed and
export was AT. 600 bushels. The guam
tty required for seed and consumption is
about 1863, 900, 600 bushels, and we exported
during that portion of the crop year which
has expired 100000 bushels. An ad-
dition of the two calls for $4,000, 600
bushels. which. according to the Govern
ment, is more than existed. Estimating
the crop movement for the crop year on
the basis of the actual exports for January
and February. which were about q, OOO, coo
bushels, it becomes apparent that the
actual crop of last year must have been
nearer 450. 600. 600 bushels, which was the
estimate of the Cincinnati Price Current.
than 1896, 100000 bushels, which was the
estimate of the Agricultural Bureau; and
this would leave the country absolutely
bare next July.
A further confirmation of this view is
D1 tDo VI lU6 WHEAT
market If the bureau report had been
accurate The country would now have
been in the first stage of wheat famine.
whereas, in fact, wheat is selling in New
York at 61R cents and in Chicago the
lowest prices ever recorded have prevailed
for some days. Such a phenomenal de-
cline is, Of course, mainly the consequence
of general encouragement among buyers.
For months every one who has bought for
the rise has lost money. owing to the
absence Of a speculative spirit. Peoples
temper is so depressed that nothing seems
cheap. and there seems to be no bottom to
anything. This. of course, is a temporary
condition Of things; turn in the tide will
come before long. But If there were not
enough wheat to go round, as the Govern
ment figures would imply, it would not
require speculation to maintain prices.
There are those, indeed, who are begin
ming to regard the estimate of the Cincin-
natl Price Current as an underestimate.
They reason from the course of the mar
kets. During the last half of 1898 the
average price of wheat in New York was
6S.S9 cents per bushel. 10 cents over than
any year of which records have been pre-.
served. As above stated it is now cents
lower. Such a decline is not 10 be ex-
planned by scarcity of money IN the
wheat States, or by such extreme necessity
among the farmers that they have been
compelled to rush their stuff to market at
any price. A more natural explanation is
the supposition that the crop of 1898 was
In reality a very large crop instead of
being, as we were told. very short one.
For ten years the acreage planted in
wheat in the whole country has not ma
terially varied from 100000 acres. 1t
was 100000 acres in 1884; it ran down to
100000 acres in 1885; up to 39, 900, 900
acres In 1891, and back to 3S. 900, 600 in 1892.
On the acreage of 1884 crop OF 512, 0OO, 900
bushels was raised, and IN the large acre
age of 1891 crop of Gil, 10000 was re-
ported, though the figure was probably
exaggerated; but it is highly improbable
that the crop OF 1893 was only a trife
larger than the crop of 1885, when only
100000 acres were planted In wheat. 1t
is scarcely credible that it should have
fallen 100000 bushels below the crop of
1880. when The acreage was $4,000, 600 acres.
This is so large country and wheat is
planted over such a wide meridian that
crop failures here and there from drought,
or wet weather, or frost, or blight, or other
accidents. rarely affect the aggregate crop
to any material extent; where the crop of
one State is short that of another State is
bountiful; the lean areas balance the fat
areas. II is pretty safe TO count, one year
with the other. on crop of about SOC. OOO,-
600 bushels. Where the bureau reports a
large excess over that figure it will have to
Justify it by reporting an increased acre
age somewhere, and where it reports a
considerable decline from that figure.
without clear exposition of diminished
acreage. its statements will naturally pro-
woke challenge and investigation.