Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1893-11-23
THE STAY-AT-HOME VOTERS.
Results of the Analysis of Recon
Votes by Mr.. Frederick c. Waite.


Frederick c. Waite. the expert statisti-
clan, in lecture at the Columbian Univer-
sity, Tuesday night, gave an interesting
cent election figures.
Mr. Waite said: Another tidal wave of
disapproval has been recorded at the polls
Let us analyze the returns in the light OF
sixty years of election statistics. From my
statistical chart, comparing the political
complexion of elections for twenty years
with those of forty years previous you will
see, that during the last twenty years, and
also the twenty years ending with the
breaking up of the wing party, the demo-
Gratis carried every alternate presidential
election and yet were always defeated at
the intervening presidential election.
ITO the democrats, 1886 and 10 brought
victories at the polls; 40 and 80, defeats;
"A and 'S4. victories; AS and 'SS, defeats
80 and '92. victories. Moreover you notice
that during both periods the democrats
carried every off congressional election ex-
cept the one during the Mexican war
"A year ago in a lecture at Johns Hop
kins University, having thus pointed out in
detail that the election pendulum swings
the mantle of supremacy from party to
party with mathematical regularity when
ever there is no great issue between the
political parties said: There is nothing
surprising to the statistician in the Cleve-
land vote. The republican farmers have
not become democrats This year 1 add,
that the democrats have not voted the re-
publican ticket, but have merely allowed
the election to go by default.
Since the republican vote for Harrison
in 1888 eQualed a larger per cent of the
total number of legal voters in New York
than the greatest democratic vote ever poll
ed. 1t is fair to assume that of the voters
not affiliating with the lesser parties one
half are republicans and the other half are
democrats. Therefore, by subtracting from
the republican half the republican vote in
1893, and from the democratic half the DEM
ocratic vote, we find that 10000 republicans
and 21OOOO democrats did not vote, If we
assume that those voting cast their own
party ticket with the exception of, say,
5000 democrats.
ITO show that the republican farmers did
not vote for Cleveland 1 analysed the cleo
ton returns, town by town. throughout the
rural districts of New York, and discovered
that the rural vote for Cleveland was even
less in 1872 than in 1888 in every agricuI-
tural county of the empire state. So great
was the decrease. that it more than offset
the Cleveland gains in New York city,
Buffalo and the cities of the interior In
Ohio it was just the same. Cleveland's vote
was less in 1892 than in 1SSS in the rural
townships of all the agricultural counties.
The Stay-at-HOme Voters.
Hence, the only reasonable conclusion is
that last year the dissatisfied republican
farmers, and this year these and other dis
satisfied republicans and disconnected DEM
ocratic laborers by the hundreds of thou
sands, have Joined the stay-at-home voters
Last year the stay-at-home vote in Penn
900; in New York 100000 last year, this
year 100000: in Virginia 10000 last year,
this year 10000: in Chicago $1,000 last year
this year 10000; in Nebraska 10000 in 1855
this year 10000. II is the stay-at-home
party which has made such phenomenal
gains. while, without an important excep-
ton in any state which has had an cleo
ton, there has been a decrease in the vote
of the republican, democratic and all other
parties except one.
1.-The peoples party has made Insignificant
gains in some of the states, large gains in
one. and apparent losses in few on ac-
count of the doing away with fusion. Mary
land has not cast for the democratic state
candidates such a small per cent of her
full vote within - years. In Pennsylvania
the democratic party has not polled such a
small per capita vote for half a century.
The astonishing features of the recent
election are the same those of last year
when 1.0OO.OOO republican farmers stayed
al home, while their pOpulist brethren cast
l,O42,5Sl votes on the strength of visionary
promises. Although many of those promises
nave been proven to be worthy of little
consideration as those giving utterance to
them are worthy of support, yet the popu-
lists have held their vote remarkably we'll
even in those states where they were sue
cess1ul last year only because of the aid OF
the democrats.
census and registration statistics dis
close the fact that the states having cleo
lions this year have furnished their full
quota or 6,cD,OO stay-at-home voters.
tuily 4WO.WO of these are utterly dissatis-
NED with their own party. They and the
popullsts are the two potent and ever in
creaslng armies of discomfort. Plans are
oeing laid to unite these forces under one
banner. Their utter lack of leaders of abil-
lily seems to be the only obstacle.
Prediction for 1896.
The general discomfort and profound I'M
rest produced and reinforced by such Do
tent economic forces, and combined with the
possibility Of labor vote, may be expected
to debar the republicans from gaining the
necessary majority in the next electoral
college As 1896 is not the year on which
democratic victory will fall according to the
law of political cycles already noted. the
House of Representatives to be chosen i'm
1924 Will probably elect the next President
of the United States"
A number of the creditors Of the Gilbert