New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1893-11-23
U'HEAT.
LARGE EXPORTS AND LOW PRICEs-GoVEEN
MENT ESTIMATES AT FAULT.

MENT ESTIMATES At FAULT.
To the Editor OF The Tribune
Sir: The exports to foreign countries. 'he
course Of the wheat market. ana the increase
Of visible supply, all sustain opinions eNpie'a'u
some time ago that the Government esu''ia'e'
of yield for this year would be found al ieas'
as erroneous as those of the past wv" !cd''.
Prices during the month thus FAR nave rcacne'
the lowest average ever known for like
period-GG.G5 cents per bushei AT Ne"-io'"
whereas the lowest monthly average ever
known was for August-67.S4 cents. The aver
age for the five months ending with this VIII
probablv he less than 20 cents at New-York,
for the first time in the whole history OF the
wheat market For the last haf-year OF 1871
the average was 81 Of. with a full crop, ana
It was 1926 cents last year. with a crop WHICH
the Government called very short. But this
year it has been only 1925 cents to NoVeM-
Der IS.
In spite Of this the customary "hod your
wheat" circular has been Issued in the North
west with quite as much passonateness OF eN-
preston as usual. and quite as much indifference
to facts. 1t is supposed by many that the ex,
ports would materially decline in October. ana
again this month. but the reported exports III
November thus far from both coasts have been
s3l942O bushels, -four included, against ll.o45's2t
last year, and for the four previous months Oh
months according to final returns and domestic
exports for November according to the prehm-
mary reports have been 14.5Ol,8Io bushei5,
against ". 592 last year. If any assume thal
the last two crops were correctly reported by
the Government, they are obliged to reckon only
977l652 bushels brought over from previous
years al the beginning of the crop year ~ 10
notorious that the quantity actually IN slght
was many million bushels larger ana IL has
been shown that probably as much as So9o,-
747 bushels were brought over The Govern
Of
that the acreage this year is but S4o"o'oVo,
whereas THE Prairie Farmer estimates tne
acreage at 37s11 600 and is probably more nearly
correct. The Government estimate would MAKE
the output about 1891. $4,000 bushels, whereas II
is probable that "The Prairie Farmer IS not
above the mark in estimating yield OF i4l,0oo-
600 bushels If the Government reports were
correct and the stock brought over were no more
than might have been left from the TWO pre-
vious crops officially reported. the supply lot
the year would be only 4o1 100000 bushels OF
which 1850 900 have already been exported ana
800 600 900 bushels are required for consumption,
so that famine would of course be In signt Inc
proba BILE fact Is that a surplus OF more than ~
600 900 bushels must be added TO yield OF AL
100000 bushels more or less, making supply
of 522 600 900 bushels. and If 36O,OOOoOO bushels
consumption be deducted from this, there re-
main 1872 900 bushels exportable. Even on
this calculation about half the available supply
would seem to have gone abroad in the Tour
fall months.
This seems scarcely probable and. moreover,
the accumulation of visible supply. when is now
I,QOO.U0O DuSnelS larger IMAM yehi aSo III 'P'',
of the enormous stocks then brought over ana
the demonstrated yield of more than 900
bushels last year. appears well nigh conclusive
evidence that the supply In the hands OF the
farmers is even larger than the estimates
above given would make IL. In reply to such
reasoning it has been urged that the farmers
were perhaps forced to sell largely during the
months Of July and August for monetary pres
sure But the receipts at Western ports, though
not accurately reported by months. suffice To
dispose of such reasoning The following shows
the receipts for the weeks approximately con-
shutting the different months and FOR three
weeks OF November ending last Saturday: