The herald., 1893-07-24
A GENERAL WAR POSSIBLE.

The imbroglio between Frsnce ant
Siam may lead to consequences tha,
will disturb the peace of Europe. 1t II
not probable that 10 will, but we can
easily imagine circumstances that may
grow ont of this affair that would bring
the four great powers of Europe into
collision. Ii England should back China
In her claims OF suzsrainty over Siam.
and by virtue of these claims the Chi
nese government should actively espouse
the quarrel OF Siam against France. there
conld be but one Interpretation OF Eng
lands action, and that would be that
China would cooperate with England in
resisting the advance OF Russia upon
Turkistan. To Offset a move OF this
kind, the car would be compelled to
take sides with France. 1t is not diff.
cult to see that such position OF affairs
would be seized by Germany in order to
weaken France, and that she would en-
ter into the fray con amore against her
old enemy. 1t is not necessary to say
on what pretexs Germany would force
herself into such a quarrel. for where
there is always cause Of quarrel between
two countries there is no difficulty in
finding pretext for beginning one.
The fact is that Europe is in such a
condition now that the least spark will
light up fame Of war. The immense
standing armies of the continental
powers are constant menace to peace.
At no time in the history of the world,
not even when nearly all the civilized
nations were engaged in the interesting
operation OF cutting each others
throats, has there been such enormous
military establishments maintained as
at the present. The number OF men
liable to be summoned to arms, in all
the countries of Europe in 1892, was
2,24s, 200. This is nearly four times
the number that the same countries
could muster into servics in 1859.
France, Germany, Austria and Russia
great armies. germany was credited
with 5000, 900 before she passed her late
law TO increase her war power; frances
army is placed at 4, 1850, 900, whilst Rus
sia is accredited with 100000. This
immense total is reached without refer
ence to the armies of Italy, Turkey and
some OF the smaller states. Whilst the
armies of Eureps have more than
trebled since 1869, the cost OF maintain
ing them has nearly doubled.
1t is easy to see that the slightest ac.
,ident may place most of these great
armies in hostile array, and as long as
such immense ornaments are main.
tained it lie idle to hope that the
principle OF arbitration can make any
headway among the nations OF Europe.
Indeed, their maintainance is incompat-
ible with the settlement of grave ques.
tions of dispute by any means but that
OF the sword.
Under ordinary cireu instances the fact
that France was intent on gobbling up
weak Oriental state, or England was
adding to her couquests in India the
territories OF q harmless eastern pote n
tate, would hardly ruffle the placid
waters OF the European entente; but
when every continental power Is armed
to the teeth; when there are Deep
seated and ineradicable antagonisms
existing between leading nations; and
when the race for empire in the east is
Becoming more acute than 1t ever was
before, no one can foreseo to what extra
ordinary consequences an affair like that
trannpiring in Siam may lead. The
natural consequence OF maintaining vast
armies is to employ them in their trade
OF slaughter; and it only needs the
slightest pretext to put them at their
proper work when there are 80 many
nations ready at moments notice to go
to war.