The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1893-09-25


requirements Of Sweden and Norway to
100000 bushels below the normal.
Ihis estimate. IL made by an impe rial
Minister. as alleged. should be correct at
least In respect Of Austria Hungary. yet
the requirements OF the dual empire are
placed much higher than is indicated by
the officially reported production and ex-
portation OF wheat and -four during the
eleven years ending with 1890
Inc estimated production for all Russia
seems to be nearly 25.O0O.OOO bushels too
great; yet 1t may be correct, as all Is guess
work as to the production of very large
part OF that immense area. The estimated
exportable surplus is certainly not excess
sive, considering the favorable accounts re-
celved from the great Russian wheat belt.
The estimate which credits Roumania
with crop OF 46.s1s.O0O bushels seems in
close accord with nearly oil reports from
That country; but estimating an exportable
surplus about as great as when Roumania
had crop Of $4,000. 900 is an exercise OF the
statistical talent that will not commend it
self to the sober minded.
The Turkish crop OF 1876, 900 Is probably
overestimated by one or two millions. as an
average harvest since the Acknowledgement
OF the empire by setting Off the best wheat
growing provinces to Bulgaria and Greece.
has not given above 25.OOO,OOO bushels and
the crop OF 1893 has been reported to be
from 20 to 80 per cent. below the average.
Still. there never has been anything better
than loose estimates in relation to Turkish
production, and tho Hungarian figures
may be MS near the mark as any; there is.
however. no excuse for an estimate that
places the exportable surplus Of European
Turkey at 5.s75.0Oo bushels. as European
Turkey has, since the cession OF Eastern
houmelia to Bulgaria, been a steady i'm
much at least can be ascertained from
Iurklsh Official (customs) sources.
Inc bulgarian and Servian crops are evil
IDENTITY overestimated, and domestic require
surplus Of the two is much more likely to
fall below 10.0OO.OOO bushels than to exceed
1900 900. as the Hungarian's figures indi-
cate. The Vienna Congress estimates the
than one-ffth Of IA. O0O. 900 bushels.
We may admit that the estimate Of 85 ,0O0.-
600 bushels Is not excessive for Asia. exclu-
s siye OF India and Russia; as there is no man
either the production or consumption of
that part Of the world; yet we can safely say
that Turkish and Persian customs returns
show conclusively that southwestern Asia
quantity. which this Hungarian credits
1t with the ability to export in the coming
twelve months. The fact Is that Persia is
not an exporter of wheat in the general ac-
ceptation OF the term. the exports of one
year being Offset by the imports Of the
next. and the last five years showing bal
ancei In favor OF imports. The most OF the ex-
rom ASs key have been
OF the empire to another. The Hungarian
estimate OF the Indian crop is 100000
mate Of the Indian Government which
had been accessible many weeks when this
alleged Minister sent his figures forth.
This one fact shows the utter .worthlessness
ton Of the requirements Of Australasia by
more than 10. O60. 600 below the amount off,
cially stated by the Australaslan authorities,
who show such requirements as equal
mum. BY this distortion OF official data.
or ignorance Of their existence. ten mill
lions are added to the exportable sur
plus OF the antipodes; and 100000 in
portable surplus Of Canada. although refer
ence to page $40 of the Canadian Year Book
for 1891 would have satisfied the Minister
that Canadians consume sos Winchester
bushels OF wheat, per annum. as 1t would
have shown him that the exports Of Canada
had averaged but 2.S73.7S3 imperial bushels
yearly from 1881 to 1890. The additions
vice have been Offset by an equal overesti-
mate of the requirements Of Argentina.
and by wholly ignoring the existence OF
Uruguay. where the exportable surplus Of
1898 will probably reach 1,20O. 900 bushels.
Such are some of the inaccuracies and |
omissions OF this putative Ministerial COM |
pilation: but they are no more gross and |
no more excusable than many others evil
IDENTIFY put forth for the. purpose of infu
encing prices or bringing grist to the |
authors mill: For instance. In a very pre-
tentious Worlds Crop. Letter." issued |
on Sept. by house in this city that prob |
ably receives not single car load Of graf n |
hypothetical products. an estimate is made |
In detail of the worlds wheat crop OF 1893 |
and of the requirements OF the 1893 "a har-
vest year. On the first OF the four folio |
pages. this unqualified statement appears:
Importing countries will evidently require about
38o ooo. 900 bushels. and exporting countries have
about 800 100000 bushels for sale Great |
Britain is tho worlds largest buyer: she has |
stocks than usual and probably the crop
IN half century. and will need to import more than
An average. or 1876 DOC. 900 bushslh"
An examination Of the table upon which
these statements are supposed to be based.
shows that OF the four columns pertaining
TO wheat but single one Is correctly foot
I'd, and that In the case OF only three out of |
the twenty-seven countries tabul lated. do
estimated product. imports.
and exports even approach balance. A
case in point Is that OF France:
Estimated exports. 5000 900
Aggregate to be provided .34s, 900 900
Bushels
Net by an estimated crop of. 2So.oooooo
And estimated imports off, 10000 ooo-326, ooo 900
MAJ prorisdJ 100000
Our statjstician cradits Franco with |