New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1893-06-14
WHEAT.
THE LARGE EXPORTS AND UNPRECEDENTED
SURPLUS IN sIGHT-GovERNMExr
pEpoprs nr-rprnrrEn


REPORTS DI,CREDITED.
TO the Editor of The Tribune
Sir The exports of wheat and -four for the prin.
cipal ports in May equiv aent 20 14,343,s9i
bushels of wheat. against 15,367,l5s last year.
Including net exports from all ports for the
ten preceding MONTHS the aggregate OF known
exports for eleven months is l74.595.5s5 BUSH
els, against 200,502,O2O for the same months
last year. In June OF last year the exports were
about l6,o0O.OO0 bushels, and the returns thus
far indicate nearly as large az outgo this month.
40 that the total exports for the crop year nearly
ended Will he not far from 100000, 900 bushels.
This Is a greater quantity than has ever been
exported In any year except the last.
The Government crop report has ceased to
deserve the confidence it formerly received. The
latest. issued last week. is Of such a character
that it is interpreted by some reputable journals
as indicating a crop of less than 400, 1000, 900
bushels wheat. But the final report Of the De-
partmcnt Inst fall placed the yield more than 4O,-
100000 bushels below the lowest figure consistent
with its subsequent statement of wheat In farmers
hands March !. Consumption Of food and seed
has been $4,000. 900 bushels. and exports about
l00,0OO,000 bushels for the crop year, accounting
for jj3, 900 bushels during the year. though
the crop was officially stated as only 81 1000 900
DuSH'is, anu 'l' I"hi'l'y HON III Ni>liJ' supply
is, nevertheless, about 40 100000 bushels greater
than it a year ago Such discrepancies as
these need to be somehow rcconciled before the
latest crop estimate Is accepted a. strictly re-
liable.
Comparison of exports, consumption and vlsi-
bic supply for the last two years warrants the
belief that the Government estimates have been
rapidly deterorating in character Apparently
they were %, 900, 900 bushels out Of the way as
to the yield of 1891, about 100000 out Of
the way as to the yield Of 1892, and it would
not be strange TO find the estimates for the crop
Of 1898 as much 60,0O0000 bushels out OF
the way. The trouble has been due mainly 10
causes outside the Washington Office; 10 the
increasing organization of farmers to influence
reports and control the market In It's nature
the difficulty j. which must he progressive
until 10 has been eradicate1 by general rec0n-
struction OF the methods and the force upon
which the Department depends for Information.
But the lowest and worst estimate seems
likely under present circumstances 10 nave Dut
little effect upon prices. II is a condition ana
not "A theory which confronts the operators OF
to-day and the condition is the visible presence
of 81, OOO 900 bushels OF wheat in the United
States alone. within "a month Of another harvest,
besides all the stock in farmers hands and many
country elevators and in the form OF hour Inc
country could stand il very well II the yl"d thls
year should not bc more than 40OOO0,oOo BUSH
els, because total supply OF over 4S5,ooo'ooo
would leave about I26, 600, 900 bushels for ex-
mort which is much more than foreigners have
usually taken 1t is this stubborn and ugly
Tact which has brought about the lowest prits
ever known both here and Mt Chicago and tho
Government estimate is hardly solid and sub
stantlal enough to collide with such facts adj
vlntapco,lsly According 10 the government re-
norts thcrc have leen harvested in two years
r .iS7 OoO. 900 hushel, of wheat But the con-
SUMPTION has been 2O.OOO,OOo and the exports
abont ii ;, 900 600 bushels in all. ll35,o9',O 900
Snshols. 81 thar there ought 20 be on hand con-
siderably ices wheat than there was two wears ears
ago Instead, there are many million ~ w"Snes
more. 800
New-York, June l3, 1898.