The herald., 1893-08-15
FORECASTINGSTOR
ACCURACY AND TlMELINEsS IN FORE
CASTING WEATHER.
Remarkable Success of the United States
, Weather Bureau In Foretelling Sudden
and Dangerous Changes In the Atmos-
phere In Various Sections.

Weather Bureau In Foretelling Sudden
and Dangerous Changes In the Atmos-
phere In Various Sections.
The signal achievement of the gov
ernment weather bureau in predicting
the disastrous tornadoes in iowa "a
hours in advance of their awful vista
lions brought into new prominence the
remarkable accuracy with which in
these days of advanced science weather
forecast can be made.
The prediction Of the Iowa toYlado
offers a noteworthy example of the value
of the government bureau and illus
trates the perfection of the system it en-
ploys, but the forecast in point of accu-
racy is duplicated daily. 1t isn't every
day that q tornado starts on wild stam-
pede, but the weather sharps are expected
to keep the cities and towns Of the coun-
try posted in advance in regard to the
weather. The daily forecast has become
ap all important element in all calcula-
tions, whether of pleasure or Of business,
and could no moro be dispensed with
than the telegraph or any of the other
agencies which have revolutionized
affairs.
Several years ago couple of young
army lieutenants who saw tornadocs in
every cloudcap kept the western farm
ers lodging in and out-of low ground
cellars until they became round shoul-
dered and neglected their crops, bait the
young lieutenants' experience is now one
Of the amusing traditions of the Office.
It is told, too, possibly as a joke, that
the colored janitor who had rheumatism
and locked upon his left leg as a reli-
able gauge >did the prophesying business
when the lieutenants were invited to
some swell function.
Things are run differently now, as the
reliability of the predictions and the
able administration of the bureau at
test. It is doubtful, moreover, if any
country on the globe has better equip
ped service. T61s is due in some meas
ure to the opportunities Of study offered
by the diverse climatic peculiarities of
the United States. These peculiarities
make the work of weather pfophesying
here amost difficult task, requiring the
employment of men Of wide experience
and learning. 1t is by no means an un-
common circumstance for the weather
bureau to chase half dozen different
varieties of storms over the country in
day. IT may be hailing in North Da-
kota, a tornado may be making sad
havoc ip fhe western farming. belt, a
windstor1n may be bowling along the
Atlantic coast, imperiling shipping, and
four or five thunderstorms may be
creating alarm in as many different sec
tions.
With all these complications, q short,
thiclzset man, with gray eyebrows and
gray Inustache, calmly looks over the
maps Which are-made on the reports of
cNery one of the government observers
throughout the country and figures out
just the kind Of weather that may be
expected in every state and section.
This short, thickset man, with gray
eyebrows and gray mustache, is the
official who. on examining, the maps ON
the night of July 5, paused for mo-
ment, and then, to the surprise of his
assistants, murmured, "This looks like
tornado"
Major Dunwoody was the officer who
read the signs Alright. The government
observers at Sioux City, Des Moines,
Keokuk and Omaha had al. reported
threatening atmospheric conditions, and
their reports when reduced to tracings
on the maps showed that the center of
the atmospheric disturbances was at
Cheyenne, with the winds racing from
all four points Of the compass toward
the Wyoming capital. Major Dun
woody has had an intimate acquaint-
ance with storms for years, and this
tornado didn't fool him by pretending to
rendezvous at. Cheyenne. The major is.
an old army officer, who understands all
about Aank movements, and he began to
figure out where tho main attack might
be expected.
He was sitting on o high stool in the
forecasting room at the weather bureau,
calculating on the tornado's probable
evolution. The major read the.report Of
the storm sentinels at Sioux City and
Des Moines ovef, again and then drew
circle, with the center at Cheyenne and
the circumference toward the east,
touching Davenport The majors ex-
perience taught him that the most
trouble might be expeeted in the south
east segment Of the circle, and before 0
o'clock that night all the observers who
furnished the alarming reports were in
structed by wire to send out warnings to
cities and towns on tho respective sec
tions, and orders were also given to en-
ploy every means to inform tie country
districts of the impending peril.
Hours before the storm broke with its
terrible fury express trains running
through tho isolated communities had
carried the bureaus intelligence, and
those who lived far from the railroad
station were warned by whistles which
were blown according to an established
and we'll understood code.
Howquickly all this was accomplished
illustrates the efficiency of the govern
ment system as directed by Chief Har-
rington. At8o'clock on the night Of the
9Th the observations we're made, and an
hour later Maion Dunwoody, with quick
Judgment based on long experience, had
located the storm and had sent out a
forecast to the threatened community,
tellingof tho dangers to be feared. How
much greater might have been the dam
aee to property and how much greater
the loss of life but for the,warnings!
The weather bureau did not announce