Fairhaven herald. [volume] (Fairhaven, Wash.) 1890-????, 1893-02-17
CHANCE is UNFAILING
BEHAVIOR OF THE BALL m A ROU-
LETTE WHEEL SHOWS THIS.

Days Play.
| Is there any reason why little ivory ball
spun around roulette wheel, which is pro-
vided with thirty seven little stalls, each of
the same size and number from 0 to 36,
should not fall in the thirty-sixth every
timer Every one will say at once this ques-
ton is absurd. Yet, if it is absurd, can any
one explain why? If at the termination of
one spin the ball has fallen into stall No. 81,
why should it not fall there again on the
next spin as well rs into any other particu-
lar stall2 Chance, you will say, is against
it, and you will be right, but probably
without being able to give a satisfactory
reason why-that is it is not an easy mat
ter to give proper definition of the word
chance.
A record has been published giving the
results Of forty eight days play at roulette
table No 9 at Monte Carlo. This record
was made up by persons not connected
with the establishment, and is probably
accurate It shows that in these forty
eight days play the ball on this particular
table was spun 81 ,314 times. On the rou-
lette table two coiOrs are recognized, black
and red, and they gre equally distributed
among the thirty-siX stalls of the wheel
Excluding the zero, and we should expect
that out of such great number of spins
the red and the black should have appeared
an equal number of times. What actually
occurred is graphically represented as fol
lows: Number Of spins, 3l,374-black, 49,
292; red, 15,2s3.
In other words, after spinning the little
ivory ball around the wheel 81, 374 consecu-
tive times-a task which occupied the
greater part of each day for forty-eight
days-the black appeared just nine times
oftener than the red The average for the
difference between the two colors for each
day of the forty-eight was sixteen, and the
greatest difference between them on any
one day was fifty-seven. The greatest total
difference between them at any one time
was l0S-that is, from the beginning of the
forty-eight days of which the record was
kept the black and the red were never more
than l0S apart, and at the end of the month
and half they were practically even.
Again in 81 ,374 spins, any first class gam
bier will tell you, each of the thirty-seven
numbers Including the zero) should have
appeared S47 times.
He will not be able to tell you why it
should be so. He will merely say that in
the long run it must be so, because it has
always been so in the past. As matter of
fact one number, the II, appeared precisely
81 times. Ten other numbers appeared
within the range from $40 to S52, and Is
other numbers from S34 to SIS. So that out
Of 81 numbers % appeared within 25 of the
correct mathematical average. OF the re
naming numbers 6 appeared within so of
the required S47, and the other were
somewhat farther out of the way, but the
greatest error of all was 40, which is pretty
good considering the number of spins. If
the record had been compiled after twice
as many spins the error would probably
have been reduced one-half
Suppose that instead of spinning the rou-
lette ball the keeper of the roulette table
were to employ human being to call out
one or other of the thirty-seven numbers
10000 times in succession, and were to in
struct him to maintain all the averages of
these many chances with approximate ac-
curacy, and to do so without employing
any method or regularity detachable by the
keenest scrutiny. Even suppose that the
roulette keeper were considerable enough to
allow the human being to use a lead pencil
and paper and whatever other mechanical
convenience he might name as well as I'M
limited time, he would find the task beyond
his powers, and if he were required to make
all the calculations rapidly and in his head
he would soon give it up in disgust or be
come bowling maniac.
And yet chance does it every day in the
year. And it does it in such manner as
to battle the intelligence of all who try to
discover any method in its work. 1t per-
forms it so as to neglect no interest, leave
out no combination, color, number or Sc
ries. Chance therefore does what a hui
man being can never hope to do.
There are many persons, however, who,
to judge by the manner in which they play,
find it difficult to believe that chance is
absolutely impartial. You may hear a man
whose opinions on other subjects you would
receive with respect, gravely declare, for
instance, that longer series are encountered
at "Trente ct quarante" than at roulette, or
vice versa. Or, again, that there are not SO
many long series on odd and even as there
are on the colors, or perhaps that certain
numbers have tendency to follow certain
others.
There are the superstitious players-those
who back the number of their room at the
hotel, or of the railroad car in which they
travelled, or the first number they notice on
entering the salon-or some number they
dream of, read of or hear repeated. Hun
dreds do this every day, and it therefore
follows, the odds being only 36 to against
each, that several must do so successfully.
But the losers are reticent; only those who
win talk much about it, and thus supersti-
ton is kept alive.
Clustering of events is absolutely neces-
sary in order to maintain an average. An
average can only be kept up in one or two
ways. l. BY perfect regularity. g. By clus-
tering. 1t is impossible that events over
which we have no control such as fires,
shipwrecks or railroad accidents, should
take place regularly If, for instance, you
learned from statistics that the average
number of fires in some large town during
a period of twenty years was thirty-six, tc
find that that exact number took place ev-
cry year would be more remarkable than
that fewer took place some years and more
during others.
Periodicity, then, is very observable on
the gaming table; each number appears
once in thirty-seven times ON an average