Evening journal., 1893-02-13
CHANCE is UNFAILING
BEHAVIOR OF THE BALL IN A RoU-
LETTE WHEEL SHOWS THIS.

Record Of 3i,s7t Spins ON a Table at Monte
Carlo-The Black Appeared Nine Times
oftener Than the Red After Forty-eight
Days Play.
Is there any reason why a little ivory ball
spun around a roulette wheel, which is pro
vided with thirty-seven little stalls each of
the same size and number from 0 20 80,
should not fall in the thirtysixth every
timer Every one will say at once this ques-
tion Is absurd Yet, If it is absurd, can any
one explain why2 II at the termination of |
one spin the ball has fallen into stall No. 80, /
why should it not fall there again on the |
next spin as well as into any other particu-
lar stallg Chance, you win say. is against |
it, and you will be right, but probably !
without being able TO give satisfactory |
reason why-that is, IL is not an easy mat
ter to give proper definition Of the word |
chance.
A record has been published giving the
results of forty. eight days play at roulette
table No. at Monte Carlo. This record
was made up by persons not connected
with the establishment, and Is probably
accurate. It shows that in these forty
eight days play the ball on this particular
table was spun 3l.314 times. On the rou-
lette table two colors are recognized, black
and red, and they are equally distributed
among the thirty-six stalls of the wheel
Excluding the zero) and we should expect
that out Of such a great number of spins
the red and the black should have appeared
an equal number Of times. What actually
occurred is graphically represented as fol-
lows: Number Of SPINS 3i,874-black, 49,
292; red, 1928.
In other words, after spinning the little
ivory ball around the wheel 81, ,374 consecu-
tive times-a task which occupied the
greater part Of each day for forty-eight
days-the black appeared Just nine times
oftener than the red The average for the
difference between the two colors for each
day Of the forty-eight was sixteen, and the
greatest difference between them on any
day was flfty-seven. The greatest total
difference between them at any one time
was 10S-that is, from the beginning of the
! forty-eight days Of which the record was
kept the black and the red were never more
than los apart, and at the end of the month
and half they were practically even.
Again, in 81 ,374 spins, any first class gam
bier win tell you, each of the thirty-seven
numbers Including the zero) should have
appeared sl1 times.
He will not be able to tell you why il
should be So He will merely say that in
the long run it must be so, because it has
always been 50 in the past. As "A matter OF
fact one number, the IL, appeared precisely
s47 times. Ten other numbers appeared
within the range from si2 TO s52, and 10
other numbers from S34 TO S5s. So that out
of 30 numbers 20 appeared within 25 Of the
correct mathematical average. OF the re
naming numbers G appeared within 80 Of
the required Sl7, and the other were
somewhat farther out Of the way, but the
greatest error of all was 40, which Is pretty
good considering the number Of spins. II
the record had been compiled after twice
as many spins the error would probably
have been reduced one-half
Suppose that instead Of spinning the rou-
lette ball the keeper Of t..e roulette table
were to employ human being TO call CIT
one or other of the thirty-seven numbers
$1,000 times in succession, and were 70 in
struct him to maintain all the averages OF
these many chances with approximate ac-
curacy, and to do so without employing
any method or regularity detectable by the
keenest scrutiny Even suppose that the
roulette keeper We're consideulte enough to
allow the human being to use a lead pencil
and paper and whatever other mechanical
convenience he might name as well as un-
limited time, he ewould find the task beyond
his powers, and If he were required 10 make
all the calculations rapidly and in his head
he would soon give it up in disgust or be
come a bowling maniac.
And yet chance does it every day in the
year And it does it i'm such manner as
to battle the intelligence Of all who try "a
discover any method in its work. It per
forms it so as to neglect no interest, leave
out no combination, color number or Sc
ries Chance therefore does what a hu.
man being can never hope to do
There are many persons, however, who
to Judge by the manner in which they play
find it dificult 70 believe that chance is
absolutely impartial You may hear a man
whose opinions on other subjects you would
receive with respect, gravely declare, foi
, instance, that longer series are encountered
. at "Trente ct quarante' than at roulette, oi
vice versa Or, again, that there are not Sc
, many long series on odd and even as there
! are on the colors, or perhaps that certain
Z numbers have a tendency TO follow certain
Others.
z There are the superstitious players-thosl
1 who back the number of their room at tn,
hotel, or of the railroad car in which thel
. travelled, OF the first number they notice OF
L entering he salon-or some number thel
{ dream Of, read Of or hear repeated. Hun
D ! ufeuS 90 thls every uals ana lt thtitlul
) follows. the odds being only SO 70 agains
I each. that several must do so successfully
But the losers are reticent; only those whit
win talk much about it, and thus supersti
tion is kept alive.
Clustering Of events is absolutely neces
/. sary in order to maintain an average Al
= average can only be kept up in one or twl
: ways l. By perfect regularity. 2. By clus
tering. II is impossible that events owe
= which we have no CONTROL such rs fires
. shipwrecks or railroad accidents, shouli
take place regularly. If, for instance, yol
, learned from statistics that the ayerag
number Of fires in some large town durin
a period Of twenty years was thirty-six, Z
find that that exact number took place CIV
cry year would be more remarkable tha
a that fewer took place some years and NOR
IS during others.
e Periodicity, then, is very observable o.
o the gaming table; each number appear
o Dnce in thirty-seven times on an average
IL but not every thirty-seyenth time; there
T. lasIrlI InaH