The sun., 1893-10-04
Can Europe Afford Her Armies2

war iB close at hand Is based on tne aSSump-
ton that the cost Of the military establish
ments now maintained by the principal
powers exceeds their resources. and that tho
alternative to war is bankruptcy. IL the
assumption were we'll founded. the deduc-
ton could not be disputed. But. according
to an article contributed by Sir CHARLES
dixie to the October number OF the North
American Repietp, there is really no ground
for the assumption. SO far as any OF the
powers. except Italy. is concerned This
assertion. supported as 1t is with figures.
must be received with considerable defer
ence, for Sir CHARLES DILKE is recognized
as one OF the highest English authorities
on international questions. and especially
those relating to military affairs.
Sir CHARLES dixie begins by pointing
out that the talk about the impending
financial collapse Of certain European na-
tions is an old story. For a quarter Of
century we have been told that Russia was
hopelessly bankrupt. and that Austria
Hungary was on the verge OF sinking into
a similar condition. AS q matter OF fact.
although the Northern Empire has enor-
mously increased its military forces. and
now expends upon them annually a sum
estimated by Sir CHARLES at $170.OOO,-
OOO she comes nearer to paying her way
than she has come for many years past.
This. too. in spite Of the famine and pesti-
lence by which, OF late. she has been
crippled. 1t is admitted that her arrange
ments for mobilization are defective. but
this shortcoming is counterbalanced. to a
large extent. by the fact that the number
Of soldiers whom she keeps continually
Al-A
in Germany or France. In word.
Russia is better able to sustain. for
an indefinite period. the pressure Of
military expenditure upon her fiscal re-
sources than she was twenty-five years
ago. Sir CHARLES further shows that much
the same thing may be said OF the position
OF Austria Hungary. The military estab-
lishment has been augmented: neverthe-
less. the financial situation Of both the
Transleithan and the Cisleithan kingdom
Is materially improved; in a recent year.
there was actually a surplus. instead OF the
deficits which have long been the rule. 1t
follows that the HAPsBURd monarchy
which. next to Russia. has been supposed
to be nearest to insolvency. has in fact. no
need to seek in war an escape from finan-
cial difficulties.
The expenditure OF Germany for national
defence is. according to Sir CHARLES dixie,
understated In official publications. After
making the necessary additions. he COM
putes that the total outlayis about $19O. .OOO.-
OOOa year. This Is borne. he says. with COM
parative ease. meaning. Of course that it Is
borne more easily than the taxes levied for
military purposes are supported in Russia,
Austria, or Italy. 1t Is acknowledged that
Italy Is financially the weakest OF the great
powers. but this weakness is attributed
rather to her enormous debt than to the
pressure OF her present expenditure for
defence. 1t Is in her favor that without
serious detriment to the national security,
she can decrease her military IL not her ma
val. expenditure: and. in point Of fact. she Is
doing SO. The fate Of the countries COM
prised in the Triple Alliance will depend
mainly upon the German armies. II they
triumph. Italy may win something. as she
did in 1901; II they are beaten. she may
lose everything. All that is expected OF
Italy is to make such diversion on the
southeastern frontier OF France as to de-
tain in that quarter considerable frac-
tion of the French army. She could do this
as efrectualy with 100000 men as with
beyond demonstration against Toulon
and Marseilles.
The French expenditure on defence is cal
culated by Sir CHARLES dixie at about $780,
100000 annually. although here. again. it Is
difficult for any but an expert to procure the
exact figures. There is not the slightest i'm
mediate risk OF bankruptcy in France. and.
before cutting down the outlay for military
hn
margin for economy in other directions, as.
for instance. in colonial enterprises and in
bounty legislation. 1t Is true that the ma
tional debt is increasing. but not SO fast as
1t was some years ago. On the whole. Sir
CHARLEs's conclusion is that. for the mo-
ment. French finance is improving, instead
OF deteriorating. and that the time Is far
distant when France will b. forced by De-
cuniary straits to reduce her war expenses.
From all the facts here brought together,
the deduction Is drawn that there Is actu-
ally no basis for the assumption that El-
rope is confronted by the alternatives Of
bankruptcy or war. II war breaks out. it
will be because the nations want to fight.
and not because they are forced to do so by
the burdens of their military budgets.
There Is. indeed. reason why the French
people should desire to bring on the inevi-
table conflict the moment their military
establishment has acquired high degree OF
efficiency as regards discipline equipment.
Notifications. and arrangements for mobl-
lization. Under the system OF universal
conscription. time is working on the side OF
Germany. which is already much more pop
ulous than France. and which Is increas-
Ing the disproportion every year. for the
population OF France Is stationary. IL it is not
diminishing. This argument against post
poning the test Of strength one moment
after due preparations have been made is
kcenly appreciated by the French military
authorities; and, since the French army is
now consi ared as efficient as it ever
will be. they are waiting only for positive
assurance OF Russian cooperation. II