The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1893-08-16
Tho Political Outlook IN France.

Der, 1892, MCKINLEY is doomed.
Tho Political Outlook IN France.
The French electoral campaign Is nearly
over, and Il is now possible to forecast with
considerable confidence the result Of the
contest which will begin next Sunday, but
which. owing to the multiplicity Of candi-
dates, will require many second bullotings
before the composition OF the new Chamber
10 exactly determined. There are upward
Of 1000 nominees for the 5S4 seats, and the
election. 1t must be borne In mind, will take
place by scr1ltin acknowledgements, or. as
we would soy. by Congress districts.
Tho preponderant faction Of the Repub-
lican party. represented by the DUPUY Cab
met, evidently thought its interests would
DO promoted by adherng to this method of
election rather than by reverting to the scr,t-
tin de Rste. which provides that all the Depu-
ties allotted to given department shall he
voted for upon n single ticket, just as In
most of the United States are chosen the
Presidential electors belonging to State.
The latter mode OF electing delegates used
to DO warmly advocated by French Repub-
licans. and they finally managed to embody
1t In law, believing that they had thus es-
tabllshed an insuperable bulwark against
reaction. Then came the startling outburst
OF BoULANdER's popularity. when the cham
pions OF the existing regime saw department
after department wrested from them, and
finally tho Department Of the Seine carried
by $4,000 majority. Even after BoULAN-
GER himself had fed from France. his op-
ponents deemed 1t less hazardous to cope
with the still formidable forces Of Bou-
langism In innumerable petty engage
ments than in O series OF great battles.
They accordingly reGstablished the scrutin
ACCOMPLISHMENTS. or Congress district
method Of election, and the event proved
the wisdom OF the step. for even in October.
1880. their antagonists had q slight major
ity In the Department of the Seine. and
consequently, under the discarded system,
would have returned all the Deputies as
signed to 1t.
Such would doubtless be the result on
Sunday IL the scrutin de liste obtained. 1t Is
truo that the Boulangists proper. or Rcvi-
eionists. as they now call themselves.
have dwindled to a handful. but tho Social
lists have made such great gains in Paris
that they are expected to cast q majority
Of the votes recorded there. Inasmuch,
however. as their strength is concentrated
In particular quarters. instead OF being even
ly distributed throughout the city, they
can return under the scrtuin darrondisSe-
Hierts only fraction OF the metropolitan
members. The same thing may be- said Of
the departments In which such large cities
as Marseilles and Lyons are situated But
while. as against the Socialists in the great
centres OF population. and as against the
Reaotlonists In the few departments where
the latter are still preponderant. the Re
publicans. as a whole. may profit by the
scrntin d'd,rondis sements. the particular fac
ton Of them now In power loses by this
method OF voting. through its inability
to control the local strength of rivals with
In the party ranks. Thus. while 1t is posi-
BILE to estimate with some approach to GER
tainty the number of avowed Reactionists
and the number OF Socialists that will be
returned ut the coming election IL Is much
less easy IL not impossible. to predict In
what relations the several Republican fac
tions or leaders will stand to one another.
The Chamber OF Deputies will contain.
as we have said. 5s4 members. and it fol-
lows that 1893 will constitute bare ma
jority. We see then. that President CAR
NOT and his thoroughgoing supporters in
the DUPUY Cabinet must obtain compact
phalanx Of about 500 followers to secure u
reasonably firm grasp Of power. They had
no such grasp on the last Chamber, for they
wore continually mt the mercy OF an adj
verse coalition OF the Reactionists with the
extreme Left The Reactionists themselves
Of all shades could muster 1866 members.
aud the extreme Radicals and Socialists
could furnish votes enough to make up
majority for the purpose OF overthrowing
the particular faction Of Republicans which
happened to DO in power. That has been
the secret OF the brief and anxious tenure
OF Office by French Ministers during recent
years. is tho situation now likely to be
changed? There would DO ground for
thinking 80 II those who may be called Mod
crate Republicans were themselves united.
Tho Reactionists. instead OF retaining the
l5G seats which they had In the last Cham
Der. will be lucky If. under any disguise.
they contrve to keep rs. The Socialists
are expected to return more represent
atives than they did in 1850: but not many
more. because. as We have seen. the sc1utin
acknowledgements works unfavorably for
them. They will be fortunate IL they carry
fifty seats; no French observer Of the
DRIFT Of things comedies to them SO largo
number Suppose. however. that the So
cialists and Reactionists taken together
SHOULD 90 able to muster 1876. they would