Butler citizen. [volume] (Butler, Pa.) 1877-1922, 1893-10-06
,,,L -rop Estimates.

IT.. s.atistieians are widely at variance
.4 their estimates Of the wheat crop. The
Cincinnati Price Current thinks that the
yield has not fallen much, if any, below
400, 900, 900 bushels, ''Bradstreet's" figures
out crop of at least 440, 900, 600 bushels;
and several other authorizes take exeep-
tions to the Government data from which
the crop yield is estimated at about 3eo'
900, 900 bushels. After all, however, the
calculations of the Federal Department OF
Agriculture are likely to be the most wide
II credited, and, as the only 'ofhciaP
estimate, will be generally used for pur-
poses of comparison until they shall have
been disproved by later details Of distribu-
tion and consumption.
Much stress has been laid upon the fact
that discrepancies between the figures OF
actual consumption, exports and reserves,
in the last two years, have revealed under
estimates of the crops of 1891 and 1892.
This defect, however, was frankly acknow-
ledged by the Department when its state
ment of reserves in farmers hands was
made public last March. At that time 1t
was apparent that the country had con-
sumed, exported and had on hand enough
wheat to indicate that the Government
estimates of 612, 900, 900 bushels for 1891
and SIS, 900, 900 bushels for 1892 were from
. to per cent. too low. The actual dif-
ference between estimated and actual re-
suits in the two years was about 3, 800, 600
bushels. Considering the vast scope Of
the Departments inquiries, and the prone
ness of producers 10 understate their crops
for the sake of effect on the markets, this
error in calculation was very excusable.
If the totals for the current crop year,
which were indicated by the September re-
port, were not more widely astray than
were those Of the two previous yeers, the
yield would prove to be not much if any
over 40O, ,O00, 900 bushels Assuming this
to be conservative view of conflicting
estimates of the wheat yield, the account
of the country's wheat supply for the pres
ent crop year would stand as follows:
Bushels.
Crop yield, 1893 200, OOO,O 600
Total supply y------- ------ --- 9o0' ' wv 0O0 0o0
Required for bread and seed 1868, 600, 600
Surplus and reserve Tor 1894 E35, 600, 600
Exports for eleven weeks since July /
have been at the rate of 100000 bushels
per week; and it would appear from these
data that, if the country should retain at
the beginning Of the next crop year
minimum reserve of %, 10000 bushels, 1t
would not take more than three months, at
the present rate of expectation, to absorb
the entire available export surplus OF the
current crop. The figures look small,
after two years experience of enormous
production and unprecedented exports; but
they are warranted by the only approx
mately reliable data available. That they
are not generally credited, or, if believer,
are not given due weight by grain traders,
is evidenced by the fact that prices are but
few cents per bushel above the lowest
on record philadelphia Record.
IHE strength OF inc ldIlu Dclolo IHO
public lies in its advantage to the whole
community by stimulating industries and
encouraging brisk home market. This
argument has been in good faith as the
corner stone on which the entire edifice OF
protective logic must rest. The idea that
the tariff is levied for the benefit Of the
manufacturers alone would be fatal but
that is the narrow, mean and selfish posi-
ton that Cameron, Baker, & Co. have tax
en- in offering to trade Pennsylvania votes
in favor OF silver for Western votes in
favor of the protective system.
These mischief makers reduce to sordid
and log rolling basis the great protective
policy whose principles and application to
the public good have aroused the enthusi-
asm of our greatest and most clear headed
state smen from Hamilton to B Baine.-Dis-
patch.