The morning call., 1893-04-23
QUAKE PROPHETS.
The Basis on Which Tenn
blors Are Predicted.
THE SUBTERRANEAN TIDES
Earthquake Months and Lunar InfIu-
ences-Some Very Suggestive
Condolences.
THE sUBTERRANEAN TIDES
Written for THE MoRNISe CALL.

The circumstance that the late earth
quake in Zante was predicted as to
time has revived the inquiry whether the
earthquake prophets have not "a method
In their madness" and whether the theory
Of Fab Is not worthy of much more respect
than Is commonly attached to it.
III took the astronomer Sehwalbe twenty
years of telescope observations Of the solar
spots to establish the fact that they have a
well-defined eleven-year period of maxima.
with progressive minima in the intervening
years; that Is to say that ifin 1870 there were
very Few spots IN 1875 they would be very
numerous, and so again in 1856
Faib's theory Is based upon a critical
analysis OF all the earthquakes from 800
A. d. to 1S43 a. D.. covering a period of
over 1000 years, in which about 60 900 earth
quakes occurred.
Falb did not disdain to use the results of
the researches of Malet and UIe. the latter
OF whom found that of 3299 EARTHQUAKES i'm
all parts OF the world. 121s per cent occurred
IN January as against per cent in June
Fab found the proportion to be $50 to 81.
very nearly the same figures.
IL Was also made very clear that In the
northern hemisphere April and October are
emphatlcally earthquake months. March
and August come next
Falb took up the inquiry in n Durely seIen-
tihc way and started with the postulate of
the earth'S interior being molten matter in
perfectly fluid Condition. Thence he pro-
ceeded on the basis of thousands of deserved
cases to deduce tile proposition that earth
quakes are snoterTanean volcanic explo-
slons, caused by the cooling of the earth's
interior and aided by the attraction of the
sun and moon.
The moment the last elements were
brought into controversy Falb was assailsd
on every side. He was, however, only saw
ing what Pausanias had said two centuries
before Christ and what had been affirmed
by the french sayaaL Percy, ca the an
alysis OF many hundreds OF eases
Percy was the first to point ont that
earthquakes are particularly liable 10 occur
at the time OF the moons perigee that is to
say when she Is nearest the earth and par
ticulaTly If at this time she should come he
tween the earth and the sun. This was pre-
ciSely tue condition which obtained on Au-
gust - 1856. two days before the Charles
ton earthquake. On August Is an earth
quake student of considerable local fame
published In the Washington papers a state
ment that the close approach of the moon
to the earth at the time Of passing between
the earth and the sun, within a month OF
the equinox, would be accompanied with
violent earthquakes. One of these con-
vulSed Charleston, the other the Morea
both within two days of the eclipse and
tJiteSu udyb AileT L0b DTeulcLlOl.
The recent Zante earthquake, which was
foretold by Fab on the same basis, &C
Cured Immediately after the total solar
eclipse Of April 16, when the moon was
near perigee and within month of the YER
nal equinox.
The total solar eclipse of January /, 1889.
visible in California, necessarily occurred
when the moon was near perigee, and also
within few days of the time when the
earth was nearest the sun, so that If the
sun and moon were supposed to be exereIs-
ing an attraction on this molten matter
within the earth, such as they are admitted
to exercise on the waters without, the con-
ditions for earthquake action were very
favorable.
As matter of fact earthquakes did fol-
DeouSY from Spain, Mexico. Costa Rica
and Russia.
Falls theory begins to wear something OF
a practical aspect when his postnlates are
compared with the actual facts. lie claims
that the following are the principal ele
meDts 10 earthquake predictions
factors" he calls them: a. The earlh's
perlhelion, or nearest approach to the sun,
This explains the frequency of ecllpses in
January, the earth being in perihaIion On
December Il. ~ The moons perigee al
ready referred to. 81 The nearness OF the
spring or autumn equinox, when the sun is
apparently crossing the celestial EQUATOR.
Ihls condition brings the solar force into
the most direct line of action, and IL also
explains why earthquakes are so common
In the tropical and so rare in the polar
regions.
The conditions on which Falb thus insists
are not unwaTrantable If a few other earth
quake dates are given.
The great earthquakes of December
January, lS11-iSl2, which shook up New
Madrid, 10 case in support of the pprhe-
lion theory. The great earthquake of Lis
bon, on November l, 1855, belongs to the
same chain OF causes. 1t occurred before
instead of after the perihelion, but in the
same connection.
VI earthquakes near the vernal and au-
tumnal equinox those of California are
pretty conclusive examples. as witness the
Solano earthquake of April, 1892; the Napa
earthquake Of September 1891; the Inyo
shoek OF March, 1872; lire local earthquakes
OF october 81, 1868, aud October s, 1863,
1t is safe TO say that earthquakes can
only be predicted as 10 place in the sense
that they follow the lines of weakness or
least resistance. One of these is aleng the
Atlantic coast, very nearly ia line from
Buffalo to Jacksonville, Fla. 1t figured in
the Boston earthquake of October 10, 1874;
the New York earthquake Of August. 1884.
and the Charleston earthquake of 1856. As
TO time there seems tG be chain OF evidence
fayOring the belief that when a total solar
eclipse occurs near the period of the eoui-
noxes, or in the early part OF January,
earthquakes are liable to occur on the earth
generally,
Falb points out that there is one comfort
ing conviction, that the earth's perihelion
cannot coincide with the snring equinoxes
for $500 years. Some $500 years ago it
conceded with the autumnai equinox, and
hence. presumably. the Noachiau deluge.
when all the forces acted together.
r. n. C.