The morning call., 1893-04-24
POPULATION AND FOOD.

Attention was drawn in this column few
days ago to the alleged increase of the
worlds wheat crop from an average of about
2,0G0,000000 bushels in the last decade to
about 200, 00Q0 600 bushels to-day, implying
an increase of something like 10 per cent in
the decade. But the worlds population is
also increasing. There are nations where
the population seems almost to stand still
Such are France. Spain, Portugal, Italy,
Greece, Turkey. Mexico, the west coast of
South America. and Egypt. But in much
larger countries, such as the United States,
China and British India. the increase is vast
and steady, so that the computor who reck-
0ns npthe human race at the end of each
decade finds that the world does move.
Take British India as an example. Fifty
years ago the population of British India
was about 800 600, coo. The annual increase
during the century has varied from ., 500 OeO
to 100000; so that the total number of
souls is now 2S9.0e0. 900. and even allowing
for pesiilence and famine it will amount to
Q,000. 900 at the end of the century. Owing
to the want of the necessary machinery for
demonstrating the population of China has
been estimated by counting occupied houses
and guessing nj the number of consumers
suits are nothing more than guesswOrk.
But it seems probable that China contains
not less than Acc. 600 people. and that the
population is steadily increasing Both in
Icdia ard in China the growth of the people
is measurably checked by famine and cpl
denies. In India the loss of life from these
causes is reckoned at half million a year.
What it is in China no one can estimate;
one hears Of people dying by millions
through want of food or the effects OF inun-
dations, but it is evident that the loss Of
life from these causes is rather overstated
;han undeTstated. There is probably little
risk in reckoning than in the first or second
decade Of the twentieth century China ana
India between them will contain a popua-
ton equal to one-halt the present estimated
population of the globe.
Turning now to the United States we
find that the present increase is about % per
cent in a derade. A couple OF generations
ago it was 100 per cent in twenty-five years.
From 1910 to 1880 it was nearly 100 per cent;
almost the same rate OF increase prevailed
from 1920 to 1910; from 1910 to 1860 it was
about so per cent; from 1860 20 1880 it was
60 per cent; from 1880 il will probably be
about 90 per cent Thus Rollaerts esti-
male that the Anglo-Saxon population Of
North America would number IS, O0O, 600 in
1880 Will only be few millions out Of the
way. The true figure Will be something
between 100000 and 100000. When
we get into the twentieth century the diff
Guilty Of making estimates is swelied by the
new factors which will come into play,
such as the volume of immigration, the cost
Of living, the nature OF labor, etc but it
seems reasonably certain that before 1920
the United States alone will contain a
larger population than all Russia does at
the present time.
Thus within the lifetime of persons now
adult, it seems likely that four nations
China. British India, Russia and the United
Staies-will contain as many people as
were supposed to constitute the entire
human race in the time of Matte Brun, and
that all these people will have to be fed.
Il needs no argument to show that if they
are to be fed the agricultural area under
cultivation must be increased much more
rapidly than it is.
The records of she past furnish no guide
10 the normal rate at which population in
cTeaSes, Tor tne simple reason that until our
day mortality was so sweeping that the
death rate often exceeded, or. at least, kept
pace with the birth rate. Pestilence was
nnsparing. One-third of the population of
Italy and Germany is said to have died of
the plague in the fifteenth century SAM
tary drainage was unknown; zymotic dis
ease prevailed everywhere, and science
knew Of no remedy. Again, there were no
adequate facilities for transportation; when
crop failed people died of hunger, though
few hundred miles away people were rev.
cling in plenty. And finally war was
conducted On principles Of determination.
When battle was won The defeated army
was destroyed; when a town was taken
the inhabitants were often indiscriminately
put to the sword. These three causes oper-
ated to check the normal tendency Of the
human race to increase and multiply. II is
a question whether France gained much in
population between the Roman conquest
and the time of Richelieu. Children enough
were born, but they did not arrive at ma
turity. In our time the death rate from all
I causes is reduced TO a minimum, while in
countries which are fairly prosperous the
birth rate is stimulated by the unfettered
operation of natural causes
The only check to the growth of the
worlds population in the coming century
which can now be discsrned is the posi-
bilty that the army of consumers may out
grow the volume of production smultane-
ouslY with a decline in the value of labor,