The daily morning Astorian. [volume] (Astoria, Oregon) 1883-1899, 1893-11-17
PROSPECTS OF WAR.

The last theory which has been start
ed TO account for the extraordinary
Importance attached to the visit of the
Russian fleet to Toulon is that Russia
proposes to set a price upon her allie
glance with France, and that the price
Is non-interference by France in a new
Russian movement upon Turkey. Peo-
pie who pretend to be well informed
say that NJ deGiers has offered NJ.
Carnot at least the moral support Of
Russia against Germany, provided
France will tie Englands hands when
Russia next moves on the line Of the
Balkans.
For over a century the leading idea
Of Russian policy has been the con-
quest of Turkey and the establishment
of third Russian capital at Constan-
tinople. Fifteen years ago that dream
Wes on the eve of reali alton. The Rus
sian outposts were within sight Of the
mlnarets Of the Turkish capital. With
the braggadocio of the Jingies. Lord
Beaconsfield moved the British fleet
into the Bosphrus and imported a di-
vision of Indian Sepoye to Cyprus.
But the English demonstration was
merely bluff. If everything else had
been favorable, Russia would have oc-
cupied Constantlnople and set England
at defiance. 1t was perfectly we'll
known at st. Petersburg that war
with Russia for the protection of the
''unspeakable Turk" would have been
Intensely distasteful to the English peo-
pie. If no one but the British minister
had objected, the cabinet at st. Peters
burg would have proceeded with its
work.
But new foe sprung up where he
was least expected. The congress which
met to arrange terms of peace met
at Berlin. It's presiding officer was
Prince Bismarck He dominated the
body. What his secret object was no
one ever knew. His conduct has always
been a mystery. But he took ground
In favor OF Turkey, insisted on the an
nulment of the treaty of San Stephano,
and practically robbed Russia of the
fruit of the campaign. Prince Gorts-
chakoff was profoundly Inundated, but
he submitted. His hand was forced by
the publication of n secret treaty, Of
ftnslve and defensive. between England
and Turkey. The event, 1t may be re-
marked, appears to demonstrate the
advantage OF our rule with regard tc
treaty making over the English rule
Parliament would hardly have ratified
Lcrd Beaconsheld's secret treaty of
jane 4, 1878.
SO matters have rested for fifteen
Years. 1t must not be supposed that
any change has taken place in tn,
purposes Of Russia. That is a powe,
which does not change It's Intentions
II wanted Turkey In the days of su.
warrow, 1t wants It just as badly to.
day And its goal is nearer to It's
hand now than 1t ever was, The condl.
tion of British India forblds the trans.
fer of sepoys to the Bosphorus. Every
toyones In the Indian army is needed tc
iaaintain British authority at Mani.
rur and to support the British advance
through Burmah. Turkey agreed, as a
condition Of the English treaty, Of 1875
TO modernize its institutions and Ia
root out decentralization in the public
service. It has done neither. Its bud.
get shows an annual deficit Of two o,
three millions; when 1t wanted money
the other day 1t had to pledge Its in.
nal receipts and intrust the collection
70 foreigners Austria, with seethinr
discomfort in Bohemia and standing
dispute with Hungary. is in no cOndl,
ton 70 undertake wars except in self.
defense II France aequisces in Rus.
-.a.s scaenss the only real obstacle