The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1893-10-01
Stephenson on COTTON
The Date Of The First Frost Will
Make a Biz Difference.

| If il Comes Late the Yield VIII be
Several Hundred Thousand Bales
Larger Than If Jack Puts in His
Appearance Early-The General Con-
ditions Affecting the Crop During
the Growing Season Unfavorable.
| New York, Sept. 30.-Alfred B. Shep-
! person, author Of Cotton Facts, has fur
ntshed the Southern Associated Press
with the following opinion as to this
years cotton crop. Mr. SheppersOn is
neither a buyer or seller Of cotton, but
possesses unusually good facilities for ac-
curate information, covering the entire
cotton belt. He said: While in many
sections the crop plant has matured so
large a proportion Of its fruitage
that the yield would not be appreciably
increased by delay of frost, there is a
great deal of fertile bottom land upon
which the plant will continue to make
and mature fruit until killed by a severe
frost. No frosts have yet occurred in the
cotton belt Estimates at this time of
the probable size of the cotton crop are
| therefore necessarily based upon the Oc-
! currence Of a general killing frost
throughout the south at about the usual
OI average udJtS.
WILL MAKE BIG DIFFERENCE.
Should these frosts be delayed later
than usual, the crop will easily exceed
any present estimate by several hundred
thousand bales, while if they occur
earlier than usual, the crop will be far
below the estimate. The acreage is cal
culated by the department Of agriculture
as practically the same as last
season. The general conditions at
| fecting the crop have been unfavOr-
able. a late and cold spring
! followed by protracted drought in Texas
| are resulting in poor stands, with cOnsid-
cradle replanJing and some abandonment
of acreage. Excess Of rain and severe
storms in the Atlantic states, with
| drought again in other sections, and
serious damage by worms in the gulf
states, are the features OF the season.
| These things are not the usual indications
| OF good crop.
6S00,OO BALES EXPECTED.
Assuming that general killing frosts
will occur at about the usual time, my
adviccs indicate u probable yield of about
| G,sOO00O bales. The frosts last fall were
| earlier than for several years and seri-
/ Ously curtailed the crop. For several sea-
! sons large quantities of cotton have been
marketed with each crop which has grown
| in preceding crops. This Old cotton has
now about all been marketed and it is
| probable that the commercial crop of this
| year viii not differ appreciably from the
actual yield. l estimate the actual yield
| of cotton last season at only 100000
| bales. The difference between that and
! the commercial crop was made up from
| the previous crop Compared with last
seasons yield the present indications
point to the following gains, viz: 100000
bales in Alabama, Mississippi and
Louisiana, being 20 per cent;
200, 600 bales IN Arkansas, be
ing 33 per cent; 10000 bales
IN the TWO Carolinas, Georgia and Florida
being 10 per cent The total of the gains
is 100000 bales. The yield in Texas l es-
timaJed at /, $50, 900 bales, being loss of
10000 bales. This deducted from the esti-
mated gains will leave a net gain OF 400
600 bales upon last years yield of 6,400,
| coo. Tennessee will probably make about
| the same crop as last season.
! Some Of my correspondents whose ia
! cilities for obtaining information are eX-
cellent, and whose standing is Of the high
est, do not think the gain in Alabama,
! Mississippi and Louisiana Will be over 10
! per cent, and the gain in the CarOlinas
| over 10 per cent, while am informed
that the commissioner Of agriculture of
! Georgia estima es that the yield of Geor-
gia will not exceed that Of last year.
RECEIPTS AT THE PORTS.
! The receipts at the ports for the week
| just ended were 10000 bales more than
/ for the corresponding week last year. and
it is probable that this weeks receipts
| will be liberal. Early receipts are no III
! dicatiOn of the extent of tbs crop, for
small crop may mature quickly and be
| promptly marketed.
The visible supply Of cotton in the
world, which means the stock outside of
| the mills, is about 400, 900 bales less than
a year ago the stock held by European
ana American spinners is far below last
| year, while the consumption in Europe IS
as great as at this time last year and
many British mills have made contracts
! for their entire product for several
months ahead. Owing to the financial
trouble, our own spinnerS are buying
very sparingly.
| EUROPE S VIEWS OF THE MARKET
European views of the market are
! based upon an American crop of 100000
! bales or more. The Liverpool price to-
day is four and Il half pence for middling,
! being One-fourth of a penny higher than
this day last year. Liverpool
merchants of standing think that
an American crop of 7,250,0OO
! bales would easily be worth 3 pence in
! that market. In this opinion one of our
oldest and most esteemed merchants con-
ours, and not only agree with him, but
think the resulting speculative purchases
might easily carry the price half penny
! higher. In the matter of cotton
prices, New York follows Liverpool
and sets the gait for all American
markets. Much interest is felt in the
report of the condition of the cotton crop
on Oct, l to be issued by the department
of agriculture. While | have not even an
acquaintance with the statistician who
makes up the department report of the
crops, | am satisfied the October report
will show lower coalition of the crop