New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1893-03-21
U'HEA

ENORMOUS CROPS OBSERVATION-DISCLOSURES IN
FARMERS HANDS.
TO the Editor of The Tribune.
Sir: The modification Of its crop estimates
by the Agricultural Department is creditable in
so far as it shows fidelity to its own sources of
information 1t would be more creditable had
the Department recognized more frankly and
candidly the extent of discrepancy between Its
crop estimates and the estimates OF wheat in
farmers hands For months past observers
OF the receipts from farms have felt certain that
the Weld Of 1892 had been much underestimated
The Department had put the yield at 5l6,OOO,OoO
bushels but from January TO March II no less
than 80. 900 900 bushels were received at Few
Western points At the same points. within the
same part Of the previous year. receipts were
only $4,000, 900 bushels out OF crop or ol-'-
600 900 bushels. Yet the price this year has
been exceedingly low and the roads in the worst
possible condition. II was quite too much TO he
lieve that the farmers. under such circumstances
had reduced tho stocks in their hands to the
lowest point ever known. and below the q'lah''S
required for seed and for four months consnmp
ton in the counties where the wheat was grown
The Department had reported in visible supply
and farmers hands a year ago 2i2.ll0,2so bush
ola. and Weld Of 5l5,949.Ooo bushels. making
, total supply OF ,os,O59osj bushels. The mean
nonulaton for the year ending March l. az re-
ported bv the Treasury Department. was 3d.
"a 600 on which consumption at 4 @-3 bushels
nor capta would be 6,1sO.OOo bushels Tor iooo'
and allowing for seed only 54OOo,ooo bnsheis'
EGO. $50. 900 in all The net exports OF "hea'
and nour in eleven months ending with January
had becn 1so3OOlss bushels while preliminary
,onorts show that l2765.4+3 bushels went OUT
in February. making 1915. OGj,63l bushels Tor the
year Thus the total distribution for tweIVe
months was 555,s4563l bushels ana the visible
SIMPLY March |. 1893, was '9,569'ooo i"''
would make no less than 3oio9,o"l ousNeis az
counted for and leave Of the years supply only
90 COCA bushels in the hands Of farmers, pro-
viled other stocks outside farmers hahds mao "oV
;rcrcosed az the visible supply had enormously
;ncrc,sed Instead. the Dr. apartment found 1885,
900 900 bushels In farmers hands. and fhc dis
o,.rorcr anncar. TO be 42,30O000 bushels
Tho Dcpartmcnt puts the consumption Tor foo1
O, 2oo 600 600 bushels which IL too small, accord
inc 10 it's own ratio. IL puts the exports az
10, 600 600 bushels, ond they appear 10 nave
bcen somewhat larger II cuts down the Nis'"r
sunnlv over half n million bushels. Thus II MAKES
the apparent deficiency in estimate OF '"e !'''"
81 900, 600 bushels which 1t cnriously rp'hNs VI
a. "only 9 or per cent whereas II Is over
ner ccnt on the Departments reckoning. ana oN"'
a nor cont IL the above figures are correct >oti
inc -secms 10 be gained by stating 1t too low anu
tho error in the Departments estimate OF yieid IL
admitted at the utmost, IS not Mt all discrcui'-
able in view Of the extraordinary efforts OF e'ca'
bodies of organized farmers to Keep oack wv
truth and mislead the public
For the last two years the facts may DC mus
stated. In farmers hands and visible supply
March 1 1891, were l35.250,00o bushels anu
March {. 1893. there were 2l5,564,oOo. an III
crea.e OF sO3l4.00O bushels. 10 tins add con-
sunn,on for two years, COZ $40, 900 for food, and
10. 900 900 for seed, and 40i,ls3,os2 ousheis ca
norted. and there appears distribution oi ~,
100 367 Os2 bushels But the two crops as ON
ciallv reported were I,l27 1920, 900 bushels, de-
Goioncv ~ :, s3s 900 bushels nearly per cent
,r;tbnmt supposing any increase In wheat ho' III
farmers hands and visible supply. IL seems crn
,h,t tho publc must believe that otner SUM
have also increased, and that the last TWO crops
have been from eighty to ninety miAio' ouS"c''
Greater than the official estimate :. ,.uo
In any case the quantity on hand Is iarge
enough for all possible wants. The 2i'po4,oug,
n"heis rcported in visible supply and farmers
,"n%s will answer for consumption during a third
40 ,ho year lO2, O0O, 900 bus shells Tor 1000 anu anu
W ,ho me 600. 900 for seed. leaving oo,1oo,oop
hvShcls for export during the four months Ma a
and June inclusive. in which cNi' nreceaent
with European crops short oeyInd P'e'oW VIII
u.nca for increase in the invisible supply W.
ahol nyobably carry over more IMAM ooU 49, 49,.
sna n.,pp Jmiv ! 1893. and the crop OF lso2 must
%e reckoned as probably more than 1io"oVi?Vo
bushels ,.. =, ,eo3