The morning call., 1893-04-17
WHEAT, AND ITS VAGARIEs.

The dispatches from Chicago describe the
recent gymnastics in the wheat market as
though they were the fruit of deepset plot
by daring bears, but a glance at the facts
shows that they were the natural conse-
quence of plainly apparent causes. Wheat
has been selling at Chicago for 10 to IS cents
more money per bushel than at Minneapo.
lis or st. Louis, and for cents more than
at New York. This is in the face of a
visible supply Of 10, ,00O,O 900 bushels, besides
an invisible supply in farmers hands. esti-
mated at 100000 bushels, of which
IS, 435, 000 bushels are reckoned as being in
this State, to meet a probable demand of
139, 090 bushels, for consumption, seed
and export. during tha three months to In
tervene before the new crop comes in.
Uncer such circumstances collapse was a
matter of certainty when the bulls began 10
relax their grip.
The market at Chicago affords new
Illustration of the mischief which speeula-
ton can work in legitimate industry For
several months owners OF cotton and wheat
have been holding their property at prices
which forbade expectation. Cotton sold In
New York above the price in Liverpool.
and wheat was worth nearly a cent and a
half pound in Chicago when it was selling
IN London at siX-tenths OF a penny. The
consequence was that imp0rtations had 10
be paid for in gold; and the consequence of
this was that in time Of profound peace
the United States, with revenue Of nearly
$500, 000,000. ran some risk of having to sell
bonds to meet current expenses.
That wheat is too low att cents a pound
at distributing market like San Francisco
is probably true But it is not low enough
q pifhar har NJ
tempt TO corner the market or to warrant
the farmers in this State in holding back
nearly half their crop. They may get more
for their holdings in May than they can
at present. 1t is likely they will if they do
not all try to sell in body next month.
But in time they will have to clear out their
warehouses to make room for the new crop,
and If California should find herself with
million tons on hand available for export
over and above fair supply for eonsump-
ton and seed very low prices might be
made, or charters might advance.
In the long run the merchant who is al
ways long of wheat will make money, and
he who is always short will fail. For moth
ing is clearer in the future than that the
worlds supply of wheat-erroneously
estimated this year 1t 2,200, 600 0C0 bushels,
when it is only about 100000, ,00O-ls going
to fall short year by year of the worlds de-
mand for consumption. Every year the
acreage planted to wheat in countries of
marked fertility will be reduced by the
increased acreage planted to fruit or high
class vegetables. But the advance in
wheat, however slowly 1t may appear when
measured by years, will be fitful when
noted from month to month or from
season to season. Sharp advances will be
followed by equally sharp reactions, and
the man who buys more wheat than he can
pay for. or he who loads up with phantom
wheat, Is as likely to fail as he who sells
wheat which he has not got and caunot get.
All that can be said is that the merchant
who adjusts his purchases to his capital and
cannot be forced 10 sell when the market is
against him is the one who is going to take
the money in the long run.
We have probably reached finalty in the
extension OF tie worlds wheat acreage. 1t
is hardly likely that wheat can be grown 10
advantage in countries which do not grow
1t now, and it is probable that some coun-
tries which arc now sources of supply will