New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1893-05-15
WHEAT.
THE HEAVY ExPoRrs-A QUESTIONABLE cHor
REPORT.

THE HEAVY ExPoRTS-A QUESTIONABLE choS
REPORT
TO the Editor Of The Tribune.
Sir: Exports of wheat. flour included, in the
month Of April from the principal ports were l2r
04l,s3l bushels, against l4,O7O,3l7 last year.
The corrected net exports for the nine preceding
months Of the crop year las, 034 $50 bushels,
against 1862, 0?0 last year, so that the known
total for the ten months has been l60,078.370
bushels, against 1913. 763.246 last year. II the
quantity of wheat in the country available for
export were no greater than Government crop re-
ports would make it. there would nevertheless re.
main exportabe May 100000 bushels. where
as there were exported in May and June Of last
year 80 900, 900 bushels. But it is quite obvious
from the fact that the visible supply April 20 was
1902, 900 bushels, against about 36,0O0,0o0 .
year ago, that the crop reports haye not given D
correct idea of the supply.
Making the corrections required by the reports
Of wheat in farmers hands for the past two years,
that is, adding 72,l26,0 95 bushels for excess Of
probable over reported crops Of 1891 and 1892. we
should have still available for export 1l3,335.634
bushels. When the crop year ends six weeks
hence, il may be somewhat clearer than 1t Is now
which Of these two Government estimates Is the
nearer correct, but it is already certain that the
crop reports have been too low, that some addi-
ton must be made to the estimates for the last
two years. and that tie quantity available Tor ex-
port May was at all events considerably more
than Al 900. 600 bushels.
The latest monthly report of the department u
one of those statements over which the newspapers
used TO put the heading Important II True"
Il would, indeed, be extremely important II tho
country shonld prove TO have raised this year 90,
900 600 bushels less winter wheat than it raised last
year. Although the foreign outlook does not at
present promise large demand, there would be
an excuse for great speculative rise IN prices
that foreign countries would be very apt to satisfy
.heir wants again 10 a great extent from other
sources. But there are two considerations which
Justify the Street in treating this report Tor tho
present. as If it were of no value
The first is that nobody can tell yet or for
some time to come. how greatly the spring wheat
acreage may be increased. II the idea once gets
accepted that large proportion of the winter
wheat has been destroyed, the farmers who are
even now sowing or have not yet commenced, will
be exceedingly apt to put in all the spring wheae
they can.
The other is that nobody can tell now, or at
any future time, how much of the winter
killed wheat will be replaced by spring wheat
sown for the same reason. II the farmers OF any
State or county know that there has actually been
a large proportion of the winter wheat In their
region killed or rendered practically worthless, the
hope of high price will inspire many to plough
duced by spring sowing, where winter wheat v
commonly grown, will be recxoned in official and
other reports as part of the winter wheat, and
vet we NAV probably be informed that 100000
or . 600 600 acres of winter wheat were so killed
as to be ploughed up. The acreage sown second
time the Government report will not state, unless
"' N'e''' w. NJ G.