The morning call., 1893-11-30
KEY TO THE WHEAT MARKET

hoICHdutS nave Debn puzzled 10 recon-
Gle the Government estimates of the
wheat crop with the condition of the wheat
market. According to the Agricultural
Bureau the acreage planted in wheat this
year is 1880, 600 acres. On which a crop of
391, 319, 600 bushels was raised. Assuming
the Government report of 1892 to have
been correct, the surplus carried over from
that year was only 10000 900 bushels
Thus the quantity available for export,
consumption and seed was not over 4O1.-
81 5000 bushels. The amount required for
home consumption and seed is $50, 900, 900
bushels, and we have already exported
from both coasts 74.500.000 bushels. Ac-
cordlng TO these figures the supply will
fall short OF the demand this year by 49,
100000 bushels, even if from December
we Go not ship another pound of wheat to
foreign parts. This is what logicians call
a reductio ad absurdum. especially when it
is set side by side with the market reports
OF wheat. and notably with the fact that
the average November price in New York
has been &c 65 per bushel, the lowest figure
ever quoted.
The explanation is what well-inform
merchants have for a long time felt. that
NAS w WI IL
is now pretty fully demonstrated that last
years crop was 800, 900. 900 bushels, though
the bureau reckoned it at much less. and
that the surplus carried into 1893 from 1892
was nearer 100000 bushels than 10000
600. The discovery of this blunder has
thrown suspicion on this years estimates,
and it is now believed at the wheat centers
in the East th at the acreage this year was
nearer 100000 than 34,6O0OO0, and the
crop nearer 100000, 600 than 391, OO0, OOO
Calling the crop 100000, 600, and adding
thereto 100000 carried over from last
year. we have an available stock of 3d.
600, 900 bushels; deduct from this $50. O0O.-
600 for consumption and seed, and we have
balance of 100, 100000 bushels available
for export, of which we have already sent
abroad "a, 500. 900 bushels. This theory can
at any rate be reconciled with the prevail
ing depression in the market. If the sup
ply is equal to the probable demand, the
price may fuctuate with the temper OF the
mercantile community and the condition Of
the money market; whereas, panic prices
for the staple in the face of a coming
famine are not susceptible of any reason
able explanation.
1t is noted that the receipts from the
farmers this year are 100000 bushels
behind the receipts of the corresponding
period last year. This is explained by the
unwllingness of farmers to ship when they
could not borrow on their stock in eleva-
tor. and were obliged to sell when their
property was unlOaded from the railroad.
A confirmation of this view is afforded by
the increased receipts in this current
m M hnr :,
dant both at New York and Chicago, and
brokers are willing to carry wheat for a
reasonable time.
The suspicious now thrown upon the
Government reports have naturally created
an uneasy feeling. People are asking what
is the use of an agricultural bureau if
year after year its estimates are laundering
or deceptive? Allowance must, of course,
be made for occasional errors in work of
such magnitude as the collection of crop
prospects from all portions of the United
States; but where the errors amount to
one-eghth or one-tenth of the crop, they
90 far to neutraliZe The value of the work
altogether. If the bureau estimates are
not oftener light than the weather prog
nostieations. their utility becomes problem
atical. When the system of monthly
reports was first instituted. experts ques-
toned whether it would prove practically
useful. We had some experience in this
State of the difficulty of reckoning up the
volume of a growing crop. Where the
reckoning was to EN- brace a continent the
task seemed prodigious. So far as mis-
chieyous results of bureau plumbers are
concerned, that need cause no distress
the bulls and the bears must take care of
themselves; they will learn by experience
to take the Government reports for what
they are worth. But erroneous estimates.
such as the one of last years surplus, seem
to be trif1ing with the public.