The Globe-republican., 1893-08-18
Cycles OF Trade.

/
Cycles OF Trade.
A question now agitating many inquir
ing minds is. ''Do panics and prostra.
ton of business occur periodically, ani
can future prices be forecast?''
For many years thoughtful busln esG
men have noticed that there was q sor
of periodicity in commercial and finan
cial revulsions, but this has generally beer
considered more fanciful than real
and when real has been attributed to
what we call coincidence" rather than
to explainable causes.
During this decade, however, two re-
markable books have appeared, which II
they do not actually succeed in their aim
to produce a revolution in the method
of reckoning in Wall street and Lombard
street and the Chicago hog market, have
certainly succeeded in exciting a great
deal of interest.
In 1875 the strange little book called
''Benners, prophesies" was published,
the work of an illiterate but an intelli-
gent farmer of Indiana. On its first page
it launched these bold predictions:
II rpedict that the average price of No. 1
foundry charcoal pig iron in the markets
of our country will he lower in 1876 than
in 1875; lower in 1877 than In 1876; run
ming down to $1,000 a ton; higher in
1878 than in 1877; higher ih 1879 than in
1878; higher In 1880 than in 1879; and
higher in 1881 than in 1880, running to
5000 per ton.
Ipredict that the average prices of fat
hogs in the markets of our country will
be lower in 1876 than in 1875; lower in
1877 than in 1876; higher in 1878 than
In 1877; higher in 1879 than in 1850, not
withstanding the resumption of specie
payments and higher in 1880 than in
1879.
The year 1882, 'S3, 'S4, 'S5, Sc, 81,
and 'Ss will be years of decline in the
price of pig iron and years of depression
in this business
All men who were in business from
1875 to 1888 know how closely these all
dacious predictions have been realized,
even to the curious upward turn of af-
fairs in 1873.
In 1884 Benners published fifth edi-
ton of his book with new predictions
for the future.
Here are some of them: 1SS4-presi-
dental year, dull trade; iron dropping:
lower prices. 1SS6-A little improve
ment; railroad stocks higher. 1sse-Re.
newed depression; free trade agitation
in Congress; stocks lower. 1SS7-The
same. 1SSs-Presidential year, hard
times; business prostrated; banks fail
ing; stocks at lowest point; upward turn
Of affairs this year. 1SS9-Now for a
boom; 1s90-Great activity and prosper
ity. 1ssl-Speculation and panic
1892 Presidential year, dull trade. 1893
Free trade agitation in Congress;
banks failing; business Frustrated. 1894,
1895. 1896, 1s97-dull years and poor
trade. 1898, 1S99-Good trade. Active
business; century winds up in height of
speculation era. At first reading this all
sounds preposterous. but the fact is
that Benner did foretell the financial
condition of the country from 1876 to
the present time.
That might have been lucky guess,
and it must be so considered unless there
is scientific cause back oft. This Ben.
ner claims. He affirms that his are
based on anaIogy-that severe financial
panics have come just so often in the
history of the country, and have been
succeeded, at regular intervals, by sea-
sons of hopefulness, high trade and
general prosperity.
These trade cycles fall about once in !
eleven years, corresponding to the time |
If Jupiter's revolution in his orbit, and
he temperance of the spots on the sun.
The reasoning is thus: Prosperity de-
bends on crops; crops depend On the
,eat of the sun; the regularity of this
upply is interrupted by the sun-spots.
The other book to which we allude,
Ievon's observation-disclosures far in
o the past, the evidence of periodical
,anics. Jevon fixes the cycles at 1915
'ears.
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