Morning journal and courier., 1893-04-10
THE EUBoPEAN WAR CLOUD.

How it Locks to an Observer in
France-Indications That France is
Headed Toward War.
PARIS, March 90.
Tothe Editor OF the JOURNAL AND COURIER:
Americans who are so exceptional as
not to have visited Europe think 1t strange
that European correspondents give such
prominence as they do to military affairs,
and wonder why 1t is that these worthy
gentlemen treat the American public, as
regularly rs the spring opens, to sensa
tional predictions of an impending Euro
pean war. The time was when we were
perplexed upon theee points ourselves, but
we think now that we fully understand
the matter. A little, of course, must be
allowed for newspaper "enterprise," and
you can spell the word with big "E," If
you like, and leave room In 1t for q consid-
cradle exercise of the imaginative facul-
ties. But this is only q partial explana-
tion. To do full justice the question of
environment must be taken into account.
One bresthes In Europe military stmos-
phere. The armament of these nations
question of war or peace Is nearly always
the question of the hour, and national
happiness waits continually upon the an
swer. From this point of view the differ
ence between the United States and France
is the difference between q nation with
standing army of twenty-five thousand
and another nation, not much more than
half as populous, which has a standing
army of about a million and q quarter,
with men enough in Its reserve forces to
swell the number to over four millions.
To put the contrast in another light, there
are twice as many soldiers In Paris alone
as you could drum up to-day within the
far reaching limits of our entire nation.
After residing here for time one gets
an inkling of the significance of these 6g-
ures, and of the awful possibilities they
| open up as regards the future. The dilem-
ma which confronts you is this-either
that the French people are q nation Of
fools, bent 90 bankrupting themselves
| without any good reason, or that they are
/ nation over whose heads q tremendous
war cloud impends, which may break at
Il
threaten their very existence. Perhaps
they are fools any way; perhaps all these
continental peoples are FOOLS This doesn't
seem at all improbable when you remem-
ber that every century the battle fields of
| Europe absorb the life blood of eighteen
or twenty millions of her fowering man
hood, and that Germany, after her great
lars of indemnity she enacted In strength
ening her defences, and has since laid out
on her army mere than three billions of
dollars taken out of the pockets Of her
own people. But here again the question
of environment comes In, for IL one ns-
ton IN Europe does 1t they must all do It,
SO they say over here, at least, and after
studying the situation at close range, It Is
difficult to see how either France or Ger
many could do. in the circumstances In
which they are placed, any differently
from what they are doing.
On the surface of things 1t would sp-
pear as though all these elaborate prepare
tions for war were, after all, the best pos
sible guarantee of continued peace. Ger
many, it is quite certain, has been less in
olined to preoipitats conflict with France
since 1883, when the latter, by q sweeping
war measure, made army service practical
1y universal. 1t Is certain, too, that when
the new army measures have been compile
will be less inclined than before to renew
hostilities against Germany. And still an
other safeguard arising from the extension
of military oonscription Is, that the fur
ther they extend tho more they involve the
nation as o whole, and the more, in conee-
quence, do they make the question of war
or peace one In which the whole nation Ia
personally interested. In France, where
the government Is strictly representative,
this is particularly the case. This nation
is no longer plaything for kings. It is
not within the power of an emperor or .
president to let loose her dogs of war. II
war shall come 1t will be because the peo-
pie ehall 30 decree, and since the people
are the army-every family contributing
its eontingsnt-it would seem to be only q
plausible supposition that they will move
cautiously, and before drawing the sword,
pause little time to count the cost and
see If such dire extremity may not by
some means be avoided.
how the surface facts would warrant us in
expecting that 1t VIII be. But there is, un-
fortunately, another side to this fair pic
ture. It Is quite true as regards France
that the initiative Of war rests with the
great body of the people, but 1t Is equally
true that the people Of this nation are
resting ct present under the humiliation
of q crushing defeat, and thst, with scarce.
ly an exception, they cherish feelings Of
bitterness, perhaps even of vindictiveness,
towards the nation which chastised them.
In moving amongst the French people II
becomes painfully evident to even the most
casual observer that the present peaoe is
looked upon merely as o truce between
two engagements, that the battle for final
supremacy has yet to come, and that the
French people, while they may fear to
hasten that Anal duel, win not seek to
, avoid IL, and win consider their situation
permanently tranquil only whom 1t hai
BEEN fought and won.
Il The French are exceedingly ssndtiYs