New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1893-01-08
4 FORECAST or WAR.
SOME CLEVER GUESSEs OF CLEVER MEN

TIE G kdn,rnl W." ?. caomb Colonel j. + Maurice
r. A.. Captain +. y. Maude. Archuad i"iD,,a'
i',,ri.. Inrc d. Christie Murray and J. sculda
,nnrc Illustrated hy /. NlllIcrs. syo pp. 90.
London william lcncmann
This handsome volume appears to hav" been TIE
ou,conc 81 discussion between number oil veteran
officers Of the Engsh services. war ~pohn'h'''
journalists and writers Of fiction. It's hTst appear
apce WINS In serial form In the pages Of ID" London
papcr. Black and White" where Is Ingenuity ana
hoId ejaculation attracted much attention That II
hss very properly been rcpubshcd In a more pcrirA
mont shane OF course such work cannot possess
very serious real importance, no matter "H'' ''
experience and ability Of the writers. ana Tor Tie b'
OF reasons. The statesman who observed 'hat II =
the unexpected that happens" (the saying mas D''h
s.cr,bcd TO the first Napoleon, and probably 10
twcnfy other people both before and since his umc
was a slrewd and an accurate observer. Many great
men have in the past laid plans deeply and crai'ily
Many have undertaken TO arrange wars 10 SUIT Neir
own interests many have discounted their enemies
nm nancr: bnt where Is tho man, no matter how
gifted. who has succeeded in his forecasis'
Perhaps Napoleon Bonoparte came Is near TO
success as any. but what lrreparable disaster lay In
val, for him! Nor Is IL 70 the purpose to say That
his fail was due rather to physical than mental fai
pre n Is tri. tlnt disease DID much TO weaken LIS
wonaerfu genius AT the last but that also was part
NJ the conditions under which he worked: anu more"
over his hcadong career had so drained MS country
~ her best blood that collapse from exhaustion must
have come eventually even without the accclcratlhg
,mn,ls. OF the Russian campaign. But the career
NJ NAPOLEON was great tragedy-less Tor hiHlsel
than for those whose fortunes were bound up Win his
and for,unately we have here to do only With The
clever Cuesses Of clever who are able TO guess
pausibly because they are well nformcd-'Ha' 49, "S
general Information goes-on the course hho 'eho''
cles OF European affairs. Yet even So cannot nut
be remembered that all recent great men have %k'h
te world and The worlds rulers by surprise. In
$50 no doubt Germany WAS ready; ana france
thought herself prepared, though the event proved
that the corruption which pcrmeatcd the second
Empirc had pnralyzed her military arm and led her
into dreadful mscalculations OF her s'rehgh anu
preporations for the field. But though all the world
had been ygilantly Observing the situation, when the
crisis came It amazed all the onlookers. ana so prob
ably IL Will De when the next great war opens
All then that are called upon TO see In ms
co,ocaton OF talent Il very adrOny and Interest
inciy constructed speculation which both III us mel
dents and conclusions will most probably he very lar
indeed from The fact OF history. Sir Charles DilRr
indeed who Is IL very keen observer insists That
there will be no European war In the hineties bhl
TO make such "a prediction Is rash at The present
iuncture and certainly peace Of Europe has not
become more assured 10y the astonishing events Of the
mast few months Onr c0labontors In the work be-
fore us oppear 10 have forecast with little cunning
in placing the outbreak Of the next war In bulgaria.
and all the prenlnaries have been arranged In II
most ma tural manner that the spread OF the war,
as it is made TO involve England Russia, GERMANY
France Italy and Turkey. appears in no respect TO
violate the probabilities but In fact TO harmonic with
them In a highly realistic manner
The story Of the next great war Is told ms IN the
letters OF special correspondents with the various
armies and as Of the writer's are familiar with
real warfare their sketches and narratives are cA-
tremely vivid aud truthseeming, while the illustra-
lions OF Mr. Vlliiers throughout graphic and mp
proprate, or there has to l'c great naval
battle In which France and Russia face England and
Germany. but FOR time this meeting does not result
I'm collision The socalled Battle Of sardinia Wit
ncsses the total defeat of the French and Russians,
after a desperate and titanic struggle, In which the
English fleet is badly knocked about though In the
end victorious. In the land fighting the French get
beaten at first, but presently produce general who
succeeds In inaiGplS Aesvx lstsst upon Germany,