The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1893-09-16
The Horoscope of Cotton-The Crop
and the Price.

The recent advance Of over a cent a
pound in the price Of Gotten has staggered
the trade somewhat, and caused many to
wonder whether or not the market is I'M
duly inflated We are just commencing
TO sen new crop and surely now. if ever,
II is important for producer and receiver
to have some intelligent idea as to the
future. Let us reason a little and try to
judge as TO whether cotton is cheap or
dear at present prices.
At this time last year the trade
was seriously alarmed by the prospeCtof Il
crop Of only about 4 100000 bales. Des-
plte the fact that we were
on the heels of a 5000, 600 bale
crop, strong bull movement took
place, and cotton rose , cents entirely on
the idea the 1S92-93 crop would scarcely
exceed figures mentioned. Furthermore,
probably nine out of ten engaged in the
| trade will agree that we would have gone
at least a cent higher but for the money
trouble which came along, making bullish
speculation of all kinds impossible. Early
in the season If the trade could have been
assured that the crop was, really less
than 6,750,0O0 bales, there would have
been much severer panic among the
shorts and a higher advance would have
occurred before the StringenCy came.
/
| with that of last year. Whatever may
be the actual yield, certainly the official
and general public reports do not indicate
| more than last year. Following the
| bureau, the Chronicle, and other accepted
| authorities, we have no reason to count
on as much as 100000 bales this year.
! The September condition of 73 was the
lowest since 1881, when the condition was
| 20 and the crop about $500, 600 bales.
| Cd he
! compromising bear will hardly claim
that the condition has improved, indicat-
ing higher percentage for October; on
| the contrary, we may confidently expect
| to see a further decline in October, prob
| ably way down in the sixties
The bears" have been clamoring that
! the recent advance has been due entirely
to the extraordinarily light early re-
| ceipts in fact this is daily asserted by a
| New York commission house, whose ut
! terances find wide circulation through
the public market reports. We shall
| probably find that the bears including
the New York house, are as badly mis-
taken in this instance as they have been
| all the season.
To be sure receipts so far are almost
nominal, but everybody knows they must
and will soon enormously increase; so
| that nothing can be predicated upon
OAApLA CANNpV ullC NlblAJ ulAGdolilCSo VI VIC
shorts who fear to lack cotton to fill their
engagements.
The speculative advance is due to the
growing public belief IN a short crop, and
is made possible by the growing improve
ment in financial affairs. Consider cot
ton is scarcely above s cents in New
York. If invent above 10 cents last yearOr
expectation Of a Z $50, 900 to 300, 90 bales
crop, and following upon a crop OF
| 100000, and when we further consider
that only the money troubles prevented q
! probable further advance, why should
we regard the price now as high2 Al
present following a crop of less than g,
| $50, 600 we are promised less than z 100,
| coo. There is no logic in facts Il
govern pricestf we do not see figures al
high as those of last year, and we maj
see them higher, That is, Of course
barring outside influences, political, finan
cial, etc.
The bears, " including the New Yorl
| house, predict that prices will drop heav
lily as receipts increase. In this they arr
apt to be very badly fooled. The public
is on the watch for chance to buy cot
ton on declines. When the bears see
the stubborn front the market viii show
| against all efforts TO depress it they may
lose some of their nerve and try to make
! the best of a bad bargain. A scarce
bear is the worst kind of a bull, - anC
| thus when the receipts actually increase
| the market may become even stronger
| than it is now. DEMOCRITUs.