Elmore bulletin. [volume] (Rocky Bar, Idaho) 1889-1906, 1893-07-15
CHANCE Is UNFAILING
BEHAVIOR or THE BALL IN A Rou-
LeTTE WHEEL SHOWS TflS.
Record Of 81. .3ii Spins ON "a Table at Monte
Cario--The Black Appeared Nine riaes
Offener Than the Red After Forty-eIghi
Days Play.

Csrio--The Black Appeared Nine Tlaes
Offener Than the Red After Forty eight
Days Play.
Is there any reason why a little ivory ball
spun around roulette wheel, which is pro
vided with thirty seven little stalls each OF
the same size and number from to 81,
should not fall in the thirty sixth every
timer Every one will say at once this ques-
tiou IL absurd Yet, II it is absurd, can any
one explain whyp II at the termination OF
one spin the bali has fallen into stall No. 9i,
Why should it not fall there again on the
next spin as well ~ into any other particu-
lar stalit Chance, YOU will say. Il ayainst
IL, and You will be right, but probably
without being able To give a satisfactory
reason why-that Is, il is not an easy mat
ter TO give n proper definition Of the word
chance
A record has been published giving the
results Of forty eight days play at roulette
table No at Monte Carlo, This record
was made up by persons not connected
with the establishment, and is probably
accurate. Ii shows that in these forty
eight days play the hall ON this particular
table was spun n .314 times. On the rou-
lette table two cniors are recognized, black
aud red, and they are equally distributed
among the thirty six stalls Of the wheel
Excluding the ycro) and we should expect
that out OF such great number OF spins
the red and the black should have appeared
an equal number uf times What actually
occurred is graphically represented as fol
lows: Number OF spins, 81 i,314-blHck, 49,
2g2; red, q. 3S3
In other words, after spinning the little
ivory bali around the wheel 1884 consecu-
tive times-a task which occupied the
greater part ~ each day for forty eight
days-the black appeared just nine times
oftener than the red. The average for the
difference between the two colors for each
day Of the forty eight was sixteen. and the
greatest difference between them on any
one day was ffty-sevcn The greatest total
difference between them mt any one time
was iOS-that il, from the beginning of the
forty eight days Of which the record was
kept the black and the red were never more
than los apart, and at the end nf the month
I and half they were practically even.
Again, in 81 ,3ilspins, any first class gam
bier will tell you, each Of the thirty seven
numbers Including the zero should have
appeared So times.
He will not he able To tell you why IL
should be so. fIe will merely say that in
I the loug run 1t must he 50, because II has
! always been 80 IN the past. As matter Of
fact one number, the II, appeared precisely
6i1 times. Ten other numbers appeared
within the range from sI2 To $50, and 10
other numbers from Sbi To S5S. so that out
! Of 80 numbers ~ appeared within - Of the
3 correct mathematical average. OF the re
naming numbers 0 appeared within 50 Of
, the required Sl7, and the other s were
somewhat farther out nf the way, but the
E greatest error Of all was a., which Is pretty
good considering the number of spins. II
the record had been complied after twice
as many spins the error would probably
have been reduced one-half
Suppose that instead ef spinning the ruu,
lette ball the keeper Of the roulette table
were to employ IA human being TO call out
one or other of the thirty-seyen numbers
: 5000 times in succession, and were to In.
struct him TO maintain all the averages oi
these many chances with approximate nc
curacy, aud TO do 30 without employing
. any method or regularity detachable by the
: keenest scrutiny. Even suppose that tn,
roulette keeper were eon@ideratc enough e
!, allow the human being to use n lead pencil
; and paper and whatever other mechanical
! convenience he might name as well as un
= limited time, he would find the task beyonl
!. his powers, aud II lac were required To max,
1 all the calculations rapidly and in his heat
: be would .oon give IL up in disgust or be
. come a bowling maniac
And yet chance does il every day Ia th,
!. year And il does il la such "a manner "a,
!, to battle the Intelligence of all who try 1,
" discover any method In its work. IL per
+" forms II so as TO neglect no interest. leav,
, out no combination, color, number sc
= ries Chance therefore does what hu
= man being can never hope TO do.
There are many persons. however. who
= TO judge by the manner in which they play
find il difficult 10 believe that chance i
: absolutely impartial You may hear a mai
!, whose opinions on other subjects you woul,
;, receive with respect, gravely declare, 70
! instance, that longer series are encounters
at "Trente ct quarante' than at roulette, o
vice versa Or. again, thnt there are not s.
many long series on odd and even as ther
arc on the colurs. or perhaps that certain
numbers have a tendency 10 follow eertail
as others.
r There are the superstitiuus players -thos
a, who back the number ui their room at th
81 hotel, or Of the railroad ear IN which the
ls travelled. or the first number they notice o
81 entering the salon-or some number the
n dream OF, read 81 or hear repeated. Hun
a dreds do this every day. and it therefor
~ follows, the odds being only ~ to agains
e each, that several must do 20 successfully
a But the losers are rcticeut. only those vii
~ win sfAlk HauCh ABOUT IT. hliu llilts hti IcIsA
I'd tion is kept alive.
X Clustering ~ events is absolutely nece'
be sary In order TO maintain AN average, A
average can only BE- kept up in one or tw
at ways |. by perfect regularity by clui
rr tering. II Is impossible that events oys
~ which We have uo control, such as fire
ne shipwrecks or railroad accidents, shout
Is take place regularly II, for instance, 20
n learned from statistic, that the Rtcrag
nt number Of iirt.s IN sOEe large town durin
a. a period uf twenty years was thirty six, |
at find that that exact number took place e
he cry year would be more remarkable tina
be that fewer took place some years and moi
during Others
PeriOdicity, then, is very observable &
the gaming table, each number appca
Dr. once In thirty y-~even times on an syerag
ID but not every thirty-seyenth time, ther
tic fore it appears in numbers, more OF less
aA there being no other way. Each event di
nd plays the same tendency, periodicity is Il
i'm ways at work-New Aark World.
ne
10. Bnildlng Coal iiTs.
frEE9 Is t.t