Lincoln County leader. [volume] (Toledo, Lincoln County, Or.) 1893-1987, 1893-11-16
FORECASTINGSIORMS
ACCURACY AND TlMELlNEss IN FORE
CASTING WEATHER.

Weather Bureau In tOretelllnS Suddeh
and Dangerous Changes In the AtmOs-
phere In Various Sections.
The signal achievement of the gov
ernmcnt weather bureau in predicting
the disastrous to-nadoes in Iowa "A
hours in advance of their awful vista
lions brought into new prominence the
remarkable accuracy with which in
these days Of advanced science a weather
forecast can be made.
The prediction of the Iowa tornado
offers u noteworthy example Of the value
of the government bureau and illus
trates tie perfection of the system it en-.
ploys, but the forecast in point of accu-
racy is duplicated daily. 1t isn't every
day that tornado starts on wild stam-
pede. but the weather sharps are expected
to keep the cities and towns of the coun-
try posted in advance in regard to the
weather. The daily forecast has become
an all important element in all calcula-
tions. whether Of pleasure or of business,
and could 10 more be dispensed with
than the telegraph or any of the other
agencies which have revolutionized
affairs
Several years ago q couple of young
army lieutenants who saw torpadoes in
every cloudcap kept the western farm
ers dodging in and out Of low ground
cellars until they became round shoul-
derel and neglected their crops. but the
young lieutenants' experience is now one
Of the amusing traditions of the Office.
1t is told, too, possibly as joke, that
the colored janitor who had rheumatism
and looked upon his left leg as a roli-
able gauge did the prophesying business
when the lieutenants were invited to
some swell function.
Things arc rim differently now, as the
reliability of the predictions and the
able administration of the bureau at
test. 1t is doubtful, moreover, if any
country on the globe has better equip
ped service. This is due in some meas
ure to the opportunities Of study offered
by the diverse climatic peculiarities of
the United States, These peculiarities
make the work of weather prophesy ing
here most difficult task, requiring the
employment of men of wide experience
and learning. 1t is by no means an un-
common circumstance for the weather
bureau to chase half dozen different
varieties Of storms over the country in a
day. 1t may be hailing in North Da-
kota. tornado may be making sad
havoc in the western farming belt, a
windstorm may DO bowling along the
Atlantic coast. imperiling shipping. and
four or five thunderstorms may be
creating alarm in Is many different Sec
tions.
With all these complications. u short,
thickset man. with gray eyebrows and
gray mustache, calmly LOOKS over the
maps which are made on tho reports of
every one of the government observers
throughout tho country and figures out
Just the kind Of weather that may be
expected il every tate and section.
Tie H.sGSt, tl8Ic..sttt man. with gray
eyebrows and gray mustache, is the
official who, oa examining the maps on
the night OF July 3. paused for mo-
ment. ana then, TO tho surprise of hi,
assistants, murmured, This looks like
tornado"
Major Dunwoody was the officer who
read the signs cright. Tho government
observers ut Sioux City, Dcs Mo;Hos
keokuk and Omaha had all reported
threatening atmospheric conditions, ant
their reports when reduced to tracing:
on tho maps showed that the center Of
the atmospheric disturbances was AT
Cheyenne, with the winds racing from,
all foar points Of the compass toward
the Wyoming capital. Major Dun
woody has Lad Cn intimate acouaint.
ance with storms for years, and thi:
tornado didn't fool him By pretending tc
rendezvous ut Cheyenne. Tho major i:
an old army officer, who understands al
about flank movements. and lie began tc
figure out whero tho main attack might
be expected.
He was sitting on q high stool in the
forecasting room ct tho weather bureau
calculating on tho tornados probable
evolution. Tho major read tho report Of
the storm sentinels ct Sioux City and
Des Moines over again and then drew q
circle, with tho center ct Cheyenne and
the circumference toward the east
touching Davenport. Tho majors ex
perience taught him that the mos
trouble might be expected in the south
east segment of tho circle, and before {
o'clock that night all tho observers who
furnished tho alarming reports were in.
structed by wire TO send out warnings tc
cities and towns on the respective sec.
tons, and orders were also given to EN-.
ploy every means TO inform the country
districts of the impending peril.
Hours before the storm broke with its
terrible fury express trains running
through tho isolated communities had
carried the bureaus intelligence. and
those who lived far from the railroad
station were warned by whistles which
were blown according TO an established
and we'll understood code.
How quickly all this was accomplished
illustrates the efficiency Of the govern.
ment system rs directed by Chief Har.
rinSton. Atso'clcck on the night of the
9Th the observations were made. and m
hour later Major Dunwoody. with quick
Judgment based on long experience, had
located the storm and had sent ont n
forecast to the threatened community,
telhtSof the dangers TO be feared. How
much greater might have been the dam.
age to property and how much greater
the loss of life but for the warnings!
The weather bureau did not announce
that a tornado might be expected. as
tornado predictions went ont Of favor
with the youns army lieutenants. The
warning, rs sent out, was to the effec,
lint snNnrn lnr-l .hn.l.--.-.---- -