The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1893-10-30
THE COTTON CROP.
The Estimates Commented Upon by
Hubbard, Price & Co.

AuDDaIas GTtC6 q 20.
In their cotton circular, Hubbard,
Price & Co.. under date of Oct q, speak
ing of cotton, say:
The increase in the movement of the
crop during the past week has created an
impression that possibly there NAV have
been some error in the estimates of the
crop as set forth by other authorities
than Mr.. Neill, and the result, has been a
continual declining market with but lit
tie interruption. a sharp reaction oc-
Cured upon the prospect of an immediate
repeal of the Sherman law on Tuesday,
but this was lost in consequence of the
heavy movement at the interior towns
and thetliquidation of the interest which
had purchased heavily in consequence of
the killing frosts of Oct. 1916. One new
feature, however, disappeared in the mar
ket, namely, the buying by the American
spinners Immediately after the news of
the probable passage of the re-
peal bill was received in the east,
and their buying to-day has been
sufficient to prevent a sharp break in
prices. At the moment, however, the CON
trolling factor is the movement of the
crop, and the prospects OF an increase in
the interior receipts of 40 per cent over
the movement of the same week last year
is the real reason for the discouraged feel
ing which characterizes the close of the
market tonight. Although this movement
shows a, sharp increase, it by no means
follows that such an increase in the
movement presages large crop of cotton,
and there is practically no change in the
estimates Of the trade as to the ultimate
yield of the crop,
These estimates are probably in the
neighborhood of Z, 100000, and are based
upon the fact, that although the move
ment of the crop is large this week, the
total movement to Oct. % which
is the latest date at which one
quarter Of the crop has ever appeared
would Indicate a crop of about 1900 900
On Nov /, at the present rate
of receipts, it is probable that 2,050,-
900 will have appeared in sight, for the
first two months of the cotton year. or
about $4,000 bales more than at the same
time last year. The exports of cotton
show that the continent of Europe has
taken to date some $4,000 bales more than
has Great Britain, and from the number
of steamers loading at the southern.
ports, it is thought that the CON
tinent will be a large buyer for
some time to come Up to ~ this
time the European buyers have had en-
tire control of the market, as the forced
absence of the American spinner has
given them an opportunity TO practically
name their own prices for the cotton Of
fering. Now with the appearance of the
American spinner, there will be three
buyers instead of two, and a steadier
market with narrower fluctuations may
be looked for, unless speculation is in
duced by another frost, or the falling off
in the movement to believe that the crop
is below the figures now accepted by the
trade. From Manchester the reports of
good business continue, and it seems
likely that we may expect q revival OF
trade in this country that will prove
greater than the most sanguine now ex-
pect.
Stocks of goods of all kinds and de-
scriptiOn have been reduced to a mini
mum, and with the return of confidence
which isnow rapidly growing the first de-
sire on the part of merchants will be to Sc
cure a stock of goods at the present ex-
tremelylow prices. AS illustrating the
condition of the market, we were told of
a case where an inquiry was made of a
mill agent for the shipment Of | 900 bales
OF goods to China in January, and not only
was the offer notconsidered but the agent
refused to furnish any quotations what
ever at which he would be willing to dis
pose of the goods. Nevertheless,
in spite of the probable
revival of trade in America,
and the undoubted continuance of the re-
markably good trade of the past four
months in Manchester and on the CONT
nent, the feeling in the market is one of
Encouragement and further decline is
looked for if the present scale of receipts
continue. This depression is the result
of the non-realization of the hopes Of the
trade as to the immediate demand for
cotton from Europe, and has caused
liquidation on the part Of holders that
has been a severe one Should the crop
not exceed Z BOO, 600 bales it is evident that
Il sharp reduction in the supply of cotton
now visible must occur, as last years
business and small crops did away with
all the invisible supply Of cotton, and cot
ton goods.