The Dalles times-mountaineer. [volume] (The Dalles, Or.) 1882-1904, 1893-06-03
THE WHEAT PROSPECT,

The New York San figured it all
out about twelve months ago that
there would be such an enormous
shortage in the grain supply of Europe
that American wheat would command
famine prices Elaborate statistical
tables were given which seemed to be
conclusive. But some way the bears,
and not the bulls, made the profits in
cereal speculation, take the year
through, by a very large majority.
The same journal has embarked
once more in the same undertaking.
The conclusion reached, after going
over the wheat fields of the world, is
that on the most optimistic view of
the situation permissible the deficit
will be 64.O0O,O9O bushels, while a
pessimistic prognostication, based on
an estimate of minimum European
crop and al American crop no greater
than that of 1885, namely, 357, 7,000,-
900 bushels, is that the deficit will be
233, 100000 bushels
Assuming that everybody would eat
as much bread as he would like to,
and of the kind he preferred, keeping
it up until the supply was exhausted,
very likely there would be this maxi
mum deficit, but the truth is that con-
sumption adjusts itself with remarka-
ble elasticity to the supply available.
There is no cast-1ron demand, even on
the supposition that everybody would
have enough to eat. If one kind of
food Is not obtainable at about the
usual price, another takes its place.
The Inter Ocean believes that the
worlds fair will greatly increase the
consumption of corn as food product,
and one Of the most attractive features
of the wnman's building-and of the
exposition as a whole-is the daily
lecture, with practical illustrations, on
corn and how to cook it. If the wo-
men of this country, not taking into
account Europe, were as skillful in
preparing cornmeal as wheat flour for
their tables, the consumption Of corn,
from choice, not taking in economy,
would be increased at least 30, 100000
bushels a year. We mention this to
illustrate the hexibility of the general
food supply.
Again, look at the matter from the
standpoint of the statistics given by
the Sam itself and we see that this
is prime factor in the problem. Ac-
cording to its figures the present popu
lation of this country, and the esti-
mate is a fair one. is about $1,000, 900,
not much more than half that of
Russia. Our wheat requirements are
at least 10000, bushels In excess of
those of Russia, or about equal to the
total exports Of both countries, and to
one-half the total exports of all wheat
exporting countries. We require for
home consumption 37S, 100000 bushels
to Russia's 21O,0OO,O0O. Fully %
per cent. of the wheat eaten by all the
countries which export this cereal Is
consumed in the United States.
Again. Europe has population of
some 375, 900, 900 and on the Ameri-
can basis would require all the export
wheat of the world and nearly 2,000,-
100000 bushels besides, but on the
Russian basis would require less than
sO0,OO0,OOO.
= These are general facts of the high
est Importance and most practical bear
ing, none Of which seems to have
entered into the calculation of the SAN |
man. Besides, it is really too early to
estimate the crop of this year with |
anything like approximate accuracy.
Even the supply on hand is an un-
known quantity. The probability is
that it is exceptionally large, as prices
we're far below anticipation nearly all
last year. The high price which pre-
vailed in Chicago this spring was
speculative, and did not perceptibly
benefit the producer.