The Globe-republican., 1893-07-28
TRADE AND TARIFF.


AdsoStkO0s Elects OF . Contemplated
Change In Duties.
1t Is not strange that democratic
journals are extremely anxious to keep
out OF sight the evidences Of depression
in the great industries Men of every
shade OF political opinion are properly
anxious to make the best of the situa-
tien. and would heartily rejoice to see
evidence that better days havescome.
But it is the extreme of foolishness for
any to pretend that the proposal to
change the tariff has nothing to do
with the state of. business. One cam
not talk with practical business men,
here or at the west, without perceiving
that their action is, and of necessity
must be, largely influenced by the I'M
certainty which exists about future du-
ties on imports.
Take the case Of the manufacturer of
wooden goods or his selling agent
They know that many varieties of such
goods are even now imported, paying
an average of over 90 per cent. duty,
and they cannot help asking themselves
how much of their business they will be
able to retain if duties are greatly re-
duced. At present they are helped to
some extent because the price of wool
has been reduced long way toward
the free-trade level, but they are per-
fectly aware that with wool so cheap
focks are apt to be very rapidly dimin-
ished. so that the supply will fall even
further below the demand. A moder-
ate increase of activity in manufacture
would thus put the price up SO far that
competition with foreign works might
become impossible. How much for
eigners may advance their goods if the
American market is thrown open to
them manufacturers here can only
guess, but it is to be presumed that the
foreigners will at first exert themselves
to destroy the competition by under
selling. and until the mills have been
closed and their working force disor-
ganized. Afterward, what the foreign
er may charge may depend upon him
self.
1t is evidently stupid thing to sup
pose that these uncertainties do not af-
feet the action of the manufacturer.
He cannot afford to abandon the field
entirely to rivals. Yet he has to buy
the wool and pay wages and begin to
make up goods which will not get into
actual consumption for nearly q year
from this time, and it is utterly impos-
sible for him to know whether he will
then be able to sell the goods at all.
True, his samples are shown and or
ders are received, but he is perfectly
aware that he is entirely powerless to
enforce the agreement if. when goods
are finished, the purchaser refuses to
take them, or if at any time before they
are finished the order is countermanded.
The thing has been done in hundreds
if not thousands of instances within
the last month or two. without the
plea of stern necessity which would be
raised if the market should be flooded
with cheap foreign goods. 1t is no
wonder if under such circumstances,
the manufacturer and the agent act
with the utmost caution. and hesitate
to make up goods of kinds which might
be undersold if the duties should be
changed. On the contrary, it would be
amazing if trade were not for this
reason much restricted.
Neither can the buyer. whether
clothier or wholesale merchant or re-
tail dealer, determine what goods he is
likely to be able to sell, or whether, if
the goods are sold on time, as usual,
the seller will ever get his pay. Before
the notes or bills fall due, the duties
may be so changed that the goods can
not be sold except at loss. The re-
tail dealer is forced to hesitate, in like
manner, as to all goods that he is not
quite safe to sell within a comparative
~ short time. These are things which
must in the nature of the case affect
the trade seriously, and no man with
grain of sense in his head would imagine
that they would not affect it The sur
prising fact is. not that some shrink
age in such business appears, but that
there is so much courage and enter
prise and hopefulness, so that the
shrinkage in trade is not greater than
it is
1t is natural that, as we draw closer
to the time when q change of duties
may take effect, the influence of this
uncertainty about the future should be
business after another. according to the
time necessarily elapsing between pro-
duction and inal consumption, the eft
fects of the threatened change are per-
ceived- When the people voted for
change ,ast November most of them
were far from realizing what the I'M
avoidable consequences of their act
would no N " Trihuno