The Houston daily post. [volume] (Houston, Tex.) 1886-1903, 1893-12-06
COTTON CROP ESTIMATE
mueH n. srEInoY GIVES mrs
OPINION.
lie Pats che Texas Crop ne one MIL
Ion Einht Hundred ThSusand
bales ms Result o. HiN rray-
els over fhc state.


els over tho state.
| The diversity Of opinion reaardins the
size Of the cotton crop continues nearly
4 IS great now after three months and
4 more Of the season have been passed and
| the Views Of operators Rbput probable
! future pricea ara as widely apart as ever,
| The public interest in this thoroughly
| home question is lnabAtea and The Post
4 WIS klad Of the opportunity ouefea ~
I llle VISIT Of Mr.. Hugh + Alet9iroy q Nc
! hlroy q Co, New Orleans, to ket US
erred ecod portion ot pir Own SSAte,.
Land, beeiIes, ii III touch with the older
sectipnA Ok the belt thFonSn the c%tetisiye
1 as 10 Ills opinion OF the Texas cuttnfl. he:
! repiiegl "a have been called upon several
| times Recently through the press % give
my estimate 81, a,i ~ :, psAe''l'
! ing no ans running counter - tae views
held BY some 81 your hest merenn,ite.
both here and IN Gal Weston, put y think
tIle central asld parthsrn n6rtioAf of tins
State and get bcyoud rehcn = the cries
OF distress from the afflicted secltonS here
u ti'e sonsh anu q te r ess
that have Just gone through !, kAct
1t IS wei. known that before i.,.atie TINS
present tour was sericaniy tisposed 70
believe ~ q crop NOS much exceeding
's TO You think, then. Mr.. McElroy. thai
the lcHs In the Houtncrn Qarfi9n % the
Stare is not material one n
ION the contrary, / am Convinced that 1t
has been very serious, and hive estinlNfed
the shortage at fully 30 per cent Of nat
year'e total but one must not forget inst
the railroads, when move the crop OF this
section. the Southern Pacific and Arensas
Pass roads. hauled only S00,0ve bales last
year, which represented perhaps the best
crop ever made, ana yet this amount y
ont by Texas that seapon Other sections
also show material falling OH, blu 1t ~ a
nntleeable fact that as one goes north
ward accounts OF shortage become less
and less frequent, and, after the Texas
and Pacific parallel Is reacned, disappear
altogether, to give place TO the more pleas
ant news Of decided increase IN the
Yield
with such apparently large figures for
Texas, have you not felt Obliged 10 modify
your general estimate of the total yield2"
Nothing so FAR has transpired To cause
such change The Improvement In Texas
outlook came al a time when reports
from the older States especially i4ouisiana
and mississippi conclusively that
large and in the whole l feel satisfied
that my figures of 7,25oo0o for the total
crop will not be far out Of the way.
why is IL that Europe holds so ten
Rciously to belief in 7,7b0,000 to 5000, 0o0?'
"The answer to THAI question is very
simple one. Put yourself in the place OF
the spinner. You wnnf to buy your cot
ton as cheap as possible. and II is only
natural that you should lend q willing ear
to those voices which prophecy that prices
will be lower and give plausible reasons
Josh billings said about advice2 He said
that when a friend came TO him for add
vice, he first found out the kind Of advice
he wanted and then gave SC 70 him That
/ Yfflfsf h Ga lat hfa 81
Josh were the two wisest men OF the
generation. So II IS with all OF us, and the
spinner s like the balance II Mr.. NELL
and two or three others in whom he has a.
measure or confidence tell him that short
crop talk Is nonsense. that the Yield VIII
be 7.750.000 to 900 ana that the farmers
are holding back. he Is more than willing
to accept their opinion, as It agrees with
his own hopes and Wishes. and especially
when receipts continue on O. scale To lend
practical support 70 large crop hgures
Geo. then there must he a day or rsde
awakening to the spinner When is this
desirable change looked for21
The day Of the much predicted 'perpen-
dicular falling on In receipts is now con-
coded e be q thing of the past. The awalz-
ening, therefore, must be gradual, but the
change from The present eztravagant large
crops views will become more radical
MS daily and weekly InoverneiiE bring fur
thnr evidence of earlier mistakes and the
chances are that estimates may run to the
otfler extreme ana btfpm4 rtulculQuSiy
lew You remember. no doubt, thar last
year, when Mr.. Nell came out IN early
NoTenlber with his tigure OF G,1o0,0D9 Il
was looked upon 90 entirely too small
to be seriously considered, and yet before
the new year OWNED upon Us, twn-ibirtla
of the cotton world were prepared to ac-
cept his amended estimate OF 6InQ,001 max
mum, poa5ioly only $500. 90 bales The
crop. az we all know turned out TO be
100 90 and this experience shows plainly
how easily sfntlnefit can be reversed and |
Into what extsavaganf mistakes It can
DO you anticipate suon Mn experience |
tha year. Ar McIslroyei'
You mean, do think the public Will /
70 badly deeeiye itself on this crop. No, I
90 net for the reason tha& no great
ealaf1ify has visited us such as that tpf a I
year ngo. and. besides. the crop we CONE /
pure V IN was only 10000 instead Of the /
guesses are moi likely 10 gain much cur /
fency this season. but only wanted 10 I
Is<dne out 20 y'ou some Of the possibilities i
~ ogop essimassllE and incldentaliy the /
eI on PRICES 81 sucll rad icHl rfissfk -. n
Ia the rncvempnte"
In that one question sop have asked I
Volumes On the movement and on al
early decrease depends the whole course i
ok pticef a hlf4>r ia4lload f.st.s war ID /
ms stats nus doils 1tsi : 70 swell the re.
eflpts 81 New 9rleaaa and GALVESTON
curing the past few weeks tllnH any 5et her
influence could pqssiblS have done. In
psain Words farmers nave been able Ia
obtain nearly haif ceat more for their 4
cotton az competitive paints than II would +
have been worth on q noFinal freight pasas.
and YOU know thar tie American farmcl
mas natural aiarewdnesa ana business L
shthty enough not 70 let such a wihdfaii
escape him. Cotton Vas hauied IN from
an'AxiHs DISTANCES and tile Shipments
EEipr % Defender 4 tho date Of termina
lion q the war we're eyeeedinglv heavy.
! IS these large eifi{hleula that are now
making their artfs3 n, 81 ~ l3ls 90. ~. - 4
AUD swelling port receipts for beyond
expectations One Houston house alone
mas steamers IN Galveston awaiting aa6Qa
pa5es ~ transit from the interior, and nuv
have as much more freight room engaged 4
y New orieens. Shipments nom the in
terror since December must Naturally
nAve iaisan on materially and within Il
week more tho decrease should max tstlf f
feh ~ the ports, Amy eenfinued cecfease
from last years nloyemenf would. Of
course S cause bears 20 use cotsidegahie