The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1893-09-25

the memory Of the compiler. or so little the
care exercised, that In the third line below
Mexico's place In the table we are told that !:
"Gu estimating home needs We have not considered
Mexico. Cuba China and other minor countries that
consume nearly $4,000. 900 bushelA"
In other words, we are in one place told
In unqualified terms, that the importing
countries will require but 1856. Ooo, 900 bush
ella. while the exporting countries will have
800, 000, 900 bushels for sale; thus making 1t
appear that there will be 64.0O0. 900 bushels
available in excess Of the worlds needs.
whereas had Cuba, China, and so forth, been
tabulatcd as was Mexico although the tab
ulator did not know that he had thus dealt
with Mexicol. there would have appeared
surplus of but 1000. 900 bushels.
A careful analysis Of the table OF this
skilful numerical manipulation discloses
the fact that instead Of o surplus OF any
amount. the worlds harvest. as estimated.
is 100000 bushels below the worlds re-
Whatever the motive. underlying this
compilation, or the equally fallacious one
attributed to the Hungarian Minister. they
are In no sense exceptional among crop es-
Inmates. either commercial or OF trade
journals. Thus in the September issue OF our
highly esteemed indianapolis contempt
rary. Milling. the statement appears that
France was an exporter OF wheat last year.
should understand that France exported
more wheat than she imported, when, In
fact, decades have elapsed since the exports
Of wheat from France have equalled the
France during the last year were as
great as our contemporary estimated those
OF the current year. This esteemed con-
temporary makes these very singular state
ments. in its September review or the mar
ket conditions:
IS 900 600 bushsls and must Of necessity
be an extensive buyer.
mo countries, with the possible exception of India.
Russia and some Of the South American republics have
rs large crop as last year"
Yet weeks before this statement was
traasia had been officially stated as being
materially larger than those of 1892.
That this manner OF dealing with. crop
conditions and estimates Is not unusual with
as on page 5ss Of its Issue Of October last. in
an elaborate table purporting to show in
detail the worlds wheat product In 1892. the
statement ia made that India had that year
although on another page Of the same issue
Is found statement. clearly derived from
official Indian sources. that the Indian
wheat crop OF 1892 had been but 400. $4,000
bo rss 50 that aR1 ssf d
the same issue the 1892 product OF Asia
Minor is stated at 1l3.OO0.00O bushels. and
the exportable surplus placed at 30,000.000.
WHICH lS III leaSC l3,UUO,UUU bushels more IMAM
ever was exported from the whole OF Asiatic
Turkey and yet this statement Is no fur
Their from the truth than that in the same
table which credits northern Africa with a
product in 1892 Of 70.0O0O0O bushels and an
exportable surplus of 100000.
In this compilation. as usual with crop
estimators. the islands OF the sea and the
tropical lands are not considered. essential
though they are to any correct statement
of the worlds requirements.
There Is q general diSDOSitiOQ to assume
that. the last two American crops having
been greatly underestimated. that of 1893
must likewise be so. Thus hypothetical
millions are added to the officially indicated
product, most estimators forgetting that
crops giving acreage yields above an aver
age are always underestimated and poor
crops as invariably overestimated. The
as the threshing test shows yields from
Ohio east above. and from Indiana west.
below expectations.
The Department Of Agriculture In It's
June report shows the area under wheat to
be some 34.GO0,0o0 acres, and the report of
Sept. states the condition at "a per cent.
OF a full crop. which the officials place at
AZ bushels an acre. II 141a bushels is the
age and indicated conditions would give an
outturn of 371.300.000 bushels, but subse-
quent to the June report many fields were
abandoned in Illinois. Missouri. Nebraska.
duce available supplies materially is the
feeding OF wheat to farm animals in large
quantities from Ohio west, while the
scarcity and high price of corn over wide
areas is likely to increase rather than d.
minish this use of the bread making grain.
Official estimates having been published
Of most of the greater crops Of 1893. we are
now able to arrive at fair approximation
Of the worlds wheat supply for tho 1S93-94
harvest year. by supplementing these off,
cial estimates by conservative commercial
ones for other countries. Placing such esti-
mates in juxtaposition with the require
ments OF the augmented populations OF the
respective countries. as indicated by the
OF the last ten years. we arrive
ut the results embodied In the following
table. where both requirements and prod
uct are stated in terms of Winchester
bushels. or bushels OF 60 pounds where
foreign weights have been reduced
AS n tabulation. to possess any value
whatever. must include all importing and
countries. the effort Is made here
to cover the entire area that either buys or
sells wheat:
ESTIMATED WHEAT REoUIREMENTs AND PROD
UCT. 1S03-04.