The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1893-12-07
SnEPPERSON ON THE CROP.
He Sticks to His Estimate Of a Yield
Of 6,SOO,OOO Bales.

Where the Gain of 100000 Bales, az
Compared With Last Season, Is to
Come From-Texas Put Down as
$4,000 Bales short-A Belief That
Half of the Crop Had Reached the
Ports on Nov. 22-The Estimates OF
aLarge Crop Believed to Be Based
on Excessive Estimates on the Acre
age.
New York, Dec. 6.-The Southern As
sociated Press is authorized to publish
the following letter from Alfred B. Shep-
person, editor of Cotton Facts, and secre-
tary of the Senate's special com mittee on
cotton
Messrs. $. NJ. Inman & Co., Atlanta Ga:
Dear Slrs--Complying with your request for
my present opinion Of the probable size OF
the cotton crop, beg 10 state that reliable
ndvlces received in the past few DAYS from
every section OF the cotton belt tend TO con-
firm the correctness Of the conclusion
previously reached by mo that the actual
yield viii probably be about 6S0OOO0 bales
So much old cotton was marketed during last
season, that the actual growth OF that season
was probababy not over 8, 40. 600 bales
think the yield OF the present crop will
show the following gains over last season,
viz: 2iO,CO) bales in the two Carolinas Geor-
gia and Florida, 100000 bales in Alabama,
Mississippi and Louisiana and $50 600 bales in
Arkansas, making total gains OF 750 900 bales.
place the Texas yield az lsOOOJO bales be-
ing loss OF $50 600 bales.
The general results for the other sections Is
about as last season.
The net gain over last season is thus indl-
Gated 10 be 100000 bales, making total yield
OF $4,000 bales.
The estimate for the Atlantic states is very
full, as the South Carolina crop may prove TO
be 10 larger than last season AS this sea-
son commenced with comparatively little old
cotton in tho interior the commercial crop
should be more likely TO be below than above
the actual yield as considerable cotton NAV
be- carried over to the next season should the
present low prices continue.
In my opinion. the weather conditions,
since oct /, while contributing materially 20
the quality, have added very little 10 the
quantity OF the crop. For maturing the crop
and enabling IL to be II 'ked rapidly and ia
good condition, the weather could hardly
have been more favorable. The remarkable
deficiency IN rainfall, however prevented
new growth and hence there has been no top
crop made OF consequence.
As the country roads everywhere have
been In fine condition the roads had all the
cars needed. there has been every facility
for marketing the crop quickly, My CORES
pondents unite IN reporting that picking and
marketing have been rapid beyond precedent.
In many sections picking is over and It il
likely that II will all be practically
finished this week. In view OF the unusually
favorable conditions for marketing the crop,
think the port movement Is fully week ia
advance OF last season and that half OF the
port receipts for this season had reached the
ports by NOV. 29 ne one half Of last seasons
receipts at the ports had arrived on Nov 90
Taking this as a basis, let us see what
y would indicate for the crop. Nov.
22 the Ie ,eipts at tho ports we're 2570 900
bales, and twice this would give 5liO000
bales as the port rece pts for the season. The
overland movement direct TO northern mills
was 10000 bales less than at the same time
last year, but we will assume that the move
ment for the entire season will be the same
as last year Let US also assume that the
southern mills will take the same as last sea
son. Using the figure OF the New Orleans
Cotton Exchange for the overland movement
and southern consumption. and adding for
these TWO items 6l2 900 bales to the indicated
port receipts, the result is commercial crop
OF 6 $50 900 bales.
AS the Missouri Kansas and Texas rail
road is now shipping through Galveston, he
bulk OF the cotton which last year 10 shipped
through Hannibal, Mo, having already ship
ped a. olt so O00 aies by the new route thus
adding 10 the port reCei pts at the expense OF
the overland movement. IL Is not at all proba-
HE that the entire overland movement for the
season viii exceed last years figures.
g3PO show how misleading the port receipts to
the end Of Novemr or may be- can be Judged
without considering the attending ctrcum
stances Let me compare the season Of 1884 'S5
with the one following It. 10 the end Of No
vember, 1881, the port 10 ielpts dlnered only
3 COO bales from the same period OF 1850 but
the difference between the crops CT these two
seasons was s7000O bales. Another striking
comparison is between the season OF 1ss7-S8
and the next season In the former season
the port receipts 10 the end OF November
were 10000 more than in 1893, and yet the
total crop was only about 100 0C0 bales more
than the crop Of 1850.
The large crop estimates now current are
all based upon very excessive estimates OF
acreage. Henry Neills estimate Of acreage
IS lgOO0,OOO acres and exceeds 240O,000 acres
the figures deduced from the census of 1880
and the department Of agriculturals yearly
percentages Of increase and decrease since
then. Now. | happen to know that the facili
ties and methods OF the department Of agri-
culture should enable II to reach approx
mately correct results concerning acreage, and
will explain the matter fully in the
edition OF Cotton Facts soon
TO be issued In abundance OF
charity towards Mr.. Neil and the department
whose acreage statements he dlscredlts, let
us take for the acreage Of this season the
average OF the two estimates. This would be
lS0O0D acres as against 81 100000 as re-
ported by the census for the season Of 1ss9-90.
This compromise'acreage Is 10 per cent. less
than the census year S acreage, and a cores
pondlng decrease in yield from the census
report Of yield a trihe under 100000 bales
would give us the promise Of yield this sea-
son Of q 100000 bales.
AS q result OF the generally dry weather
during the season for maturing and picking
the crop, the staple is somewhat lighter than
this time last season. The deficiency in Texas
Is from thirteen to hfteen pounds per bale. but
the shortage Is much less in other sections
IL is very probable than the average
weight OF the crop may be hye pounds per
UdlC lbSh IMAM ihot 6tdnpu. L DDN Il 1ltlu OF
100000 this shortage in weight would be
equivalent to a loss OF 1000 bales as COM
pared with last seasons crop.
While your views Of the crop are more lib
eral, am glad you share my conservatism
and are not at all IN sympathy with the very
large estimatek which have been so indutri-
ously circulated 10 is noteworthy that the
leading factors OF New Orleans entertain
moderate ideas in reference to the crop, and
have united in publishing a statement to that
effect. Yours very truly,
ALFRED b. STEPHENSON