The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1893-11-24
THE FUTURE OF SILVER
M. Morstou Frswrn Predicts HARDER Tt-es
Thau Ever, Fniiowsa by = Rssetton.

NlNhou1 VI bltNeE mlnluH III tnb hVchieh tO-OhN
so little resemble the recent gloomy presages
Of the Senators from the silver states that my
estimates Of the effect Of the Repeal act may
require to be greatly modified. During the
panic caused by the closing Of the Indian
minis last June. silver mines we're shut down
wholesale. the melters suspended operations.
and the local railroads suffered very severely.
Very naturally. therefore. disaster more wide-
spread still was anticipated asa consequence
OF the repeal Of the Sherman act. but vhile
nm writing to you from Denver. centre more
interested than any other. every one il re-
marking that a distinctly more hopeful feeling
has now taken the place OF the recent depres-
sion and that the corner seems to be turned.
The miners have gone hack TO work. though at
reduced wages; the shelters are running full
time and the prospect to- day IL that the silver
yield OF both Mexico and the United States will
show during the coming twelve months little
II any dlminution.
The rapidlty OF the recovery here In Colorado
Is very remarkable and speaks volumes for the
adaptabilltv Of hor people. Scarcely a fort.
night since the Eastern Republican Senators
were full OF expressions ~ sympathy for the
supposed sufferinGs which the suspension OF
the silver purchases must needs entail upon
the little group OF Republican silver States:
while II was declared public policy required
that the mints should be closed, yet Il was de-
plorable that the return OF financial prosperity
for the Eastern and central States should be
achieved by the sacrifice OF the West A little
later however. the hone was hold out that the
promised boom In all things Eastern would
reflect itself in Colorado and Montana. But
thus far Ct least the positions appear to be re-
ve'sed; the revival Ia here being dlstinc city felt
In every branch Of business. while as yet It IL
In the East that tho tidal wave Of prosperity Is
somewhat beated.
But revert to the position OF the silver In
dustry because the condition OF this industry
may not much later force Great Britain within
the limits OF AN international monetary union
II the production Of silver can be maintained.
as OF late. two years In the face OF periodically
falling prices. ut what point are the European
exchange rates with China, with South Amer
lea and with Mexico going to settle DOWN. Into
what desperate impasse. also. Is tho Govern
ment OF India drifting. her hitherto favorable
trade balances now reversed since the closing
OF her minis: her opium revenue shrinking:
afraid to open her mints agnin. and equally
afraid to keep them closcd And what will
the continental nations do. their legal tender
silver coins already Offering q premium Of so
per cent. to attract tho skill OF the coner-a
profit OF 80 per cent. on the coinage OF I'VE
franc piece. which once coined can be ut
tered" without the smallest risk.
What. then. Is to be the price OF silver when IL
has found lts natural level?" Every merchant
In London engaged in the Eastern trade Ia
looking toward the 700,000.000 OF his best
customers. their silver money iingiing IN
their pockets. and Is asking whether the value
OF that China dollar which has already fallen
from four and sixpence to two and four. 10 to
fall still further before this hyp othotical
natural level" for silver has been rlumbed
For we have to bear in mind that. as Mr.. jamie
our unI- f.nna IN, IL
Mr.. Wetmore and others have pointed out.
there has. during tho last ten years. been no
rise in silver prices in China. but on the con-
trary distinct fall And seeing that prices
and wages being no higher than before the
shrink In silver those Celestial hosts" can
afford to give no moro dollars for England's
exports. We must clearly DO very near
that point where further fall in
the gold price OF silver bullion must
involve the actual extinction OF England's ex-
port trade to China. Already since silver be-
gan to fall our exports OF yarn to China have
diminished by one third. while. unhampered
by any such exchange difficulties, the yarn
exports from the mills Of India to China dur
ing this same period have increased upward
OF 500 per cent. Since tho closing OF the In
dian mints last June. rs though to point tho
moral for all men, midas exports OF yarn to
China have fallen off by nearly one-halt
And Is there any reason whatever why silver
being to day reduced to commodity" such
as wheat, should not be produced for even
20 cents an ounce. II gold still further appre-
cistes thus bringing the China exchanges
down toward a shilling for the dollarl The
price OF wheat in the sixteenth century
in England was a shilling a bushel.
because OF the scarcity and conse-
duent dearness; or. as 1t would now be
at
allism. the gold value OF silver and the silver
value Of gold can neither rise nor fall f9r the
lism.," says MI. GIGen:,
pay ,!s6t ia gold which he could pay in sii:
Here. within two lines. is the entire argu-
ment for the practicability OF fixed ratio"
In other words, the legr! tender Prerogativs
neither could apprecl tie In terms OF tine other.
and thus the par Of EXCHANGE" between the
would he maintained. But, on the other
hand. once permit silver to go cropping
experiences the entire effects Of any riss or any
fall in the value OF Rold.iand will thus fall par
Il is exactly which is GOING forward to .dav yn
the silver mining districts. just as with the
wheat farmers and cotton planters. who for
at last fallen TO that point where they can fall
no further so also has II been with silver; hut
fall In the god price OF mining machinery
and mine supplies Is Teopening silver mines
everywhere. Mr. Grant, the proprietor of the
great smelters here. declares his surprise that
his smelters are again running full time. The
papers yesterday were announcing that in
Aspen 800 men had gone back to work
II the appreciation OF gold doubles
be PRODUCED as probably, for 80 CENTS per
ounce as for TO cents. Thus the wheels go
round: panic and readIustment of prices fol-
low on panic and reimbursement As Mr.. Git
len wrote In 1888 In the journal OF the Statis-
teal Society for December, "the average fall
in commodities measured by gold rather ex-
ceeds the average fall in silver measured by
ment here in Colorado is for the time COM
plete, venture 10 anticipate a further auiet
fall In the price OF silver to about 20 cents,
which will bring the China dollar to less than
two shilltngs, and how is London going 20
stand thAt2 Can she stand It at ALP
1t ought 10 be added that while the fall In the
price o. silver here has probably been less than
the fall in the price Of coal In England yet the
fall In silver was so directly tracea bic TO legis-
lation that there has not been the slightest
unpleasantness between employers and em-
ployed; the men saw at once that wages must
come down, and would never have turned
out only that the rules OF the labor organiZa-
tons made II difficult for the moment that |
they should accept lower wages. This DIM
off