The Abbeville press and banner. [volume] (Abbeville, S.C.) 1869-1924, 1893-11-29
WHY WE GOT BEATEN.
FREDERICK c. WAITE TELLS WHY
THE DEMOCRATS LOST.

The Stay at Home Vote Did Lt-CJcles Of
Democratic Defeat-Populism Will
Throw the Election of President In 1906
Into the House.
WASHINGTON, d. G., Nov. 21.-
Frederick G. Waite, who did a great
deal of expert estimating for Superin-
ten ent Porter in the census Office, said
some Notable things This evening in his
lecture at the Columbian University.
Prof. &. F. Craven IN introducing him
said: "We have with US this evening
rising statistician whose remarkable
insight into figures enabled him twelve
months ago to point out in his lectures
at Johns Hopkins University that the
forces which produce commercial crisis
were at flood tide. Had the bankers
been as expectant of disaster, they
would have maintained their reserves
and thus STAYED of the blunt of the cri.
sis. :.
"Mr. Waite. who is making an elab.
crate investigation of the cause of dis
content in this country for his lectures
at Johns Hopkins, and who says only
what be can prove, will now address
us upon the lessons to be drawn from
the election. As the election is the key
board By which the citizens ola CONT.
nent express and record their wishes
their hopes and their dlscontents, the
scientific study of election statistics in
such hands is emlnently fitting in q
practical course of economics like ours"
Mr.. Waite said: Another ''tldal
wave" of dlsapproval has been recorded
at the polls. Let us analYze the re-
turns in the light Of sixty years of cleo.
tion statistics. From my statistical
chart, "comparing the political complex
ion of elections for twenty years with
those of forty years Previous" you will
see that during the last twenty years
and also the twenty years ending With
the breaking up of the Whig party, the
Democrats carried every alternate Pres.
identiaI election and yet were always
defeated at the intervening Presidential
election.
To the Democrats 1886 and rs
brought victories at the polls; 40 and
80 defeats; IA and '84 victories; '48 aud
'S8 defeats; '52 and 1872 victories. More.
over, you notice that during both pc
RODS the Democrats carried every off
Congressional election, except the one
during the Mexican war.
A year ago.. IN lecture at Johns
Hopkins University, having thus point
ed out in detail that the election pendu
lum swings the mantle Of supremacy
from party to party with mathema ical
regularity whenever there is no great
issue between the political parties, I
said: "There is nothing surprising to
the statistician in the Cleveland vote.
The Republican farmers have not be.
come Democrats" This year add,
that the Democrats have not voted the
Republican ticket, but have merely al
lowed the election to 60 by def ,ult.
Since the Republican vote for Harri-
son in 1888 equaled larger per cent of
the total nunoer of legal voters in New
York than the greatest Democratic vote
ever polled, it is tair to assume that the
voters not affillating with the lesser
parties one halt are Republicans and
the other half are Democrats. There
rore by subtracling from the Republican
nalf the Republican vote in 1898. aud
froru the Democratic half the Deuo
c. attic vote. we lind that 100000 Rspub-
licans and 100000 Democrats did not
vote, If we assume that those voting cast
heir own party ticket With the excep-
ton of say. S 900 Democrats.
Mr.. Drpew, however, claims that
10000 Democrats voted the Republi-
c,p ,icSet. If 30, by deducting that
$50 900 Democrats from the 2l5, 900
Democrats wn did not vote the Demo.
crauc ticket, We have left s. 600, The
number who didn't vote afall. T 10 total
lumber not voting was 400 900. Sub
.racIiny the $4,000 Democrats we have
left 335, 900. the Lumber OF Republicans
not vOLlng.
Hence it 10 in order ior Mr.. Dapew to
explain why ne thioks that 335 600 Re-
publlcars deemed their ticket u worthy
of beiug voted, while all but $4,000 of
the Democrats marched in solid COL
umns to the polls.
To show that the Republican farmer
old not vote for Cleveland I analyzed
the election returns, town by town,
throughout the rural dis riots Of New
York, aud discovered that the rural vote
for Cleveland was even less in 1892
than in 1888 IN every agricultural county
of the Empire State. So great was the
decrease, that 1t more. than Offset tue
Cleveland gains IN New York City.
Buffalo and the cities of the interior.
In Ohio it was just the same. Cleve,
lands vote was less in 1892 th an in 1883
IN the rural townships of all the agrl-
cultural counties.
Hence the only reasonable conclusion
is that last year the dissatisfied Republl.
can farmers, aud this year these and
other dissatisfied Republicans and dis.
contented Democratic laborers by the
hundred Of thousands, have joined the
stay .at.home votes. Last year the
stay-at.home vote in Pennsylvania num-
bered 270, 900, this year $50, 900, in New
York 100000 last year, this year 4O0..
900; in Virginia last year $4,000, this
year 10000; in Chicago $4,000 last
year, this wear l80, 1000; in Nebraska 49,
900 in 1888, this year 10000. 1t is
the stay-at, home party which has made
such phenomenal gains, while without
an important exception in any State
which has had an election, there has
been decrease III the vote of the Rs-
publican, Democratic and all other par
ties except one.