, 1893-08-26
THE AVIS
Christiansted, St, Croix.
Saturday. 26th August 1898

IN Gun iitSi we PROMISED 10 return lO-ua9 ~
the subject Of almapacs and their weather
predictions. Almaaacs are very useful thing.
Besides giving us ia the calend n various infor
nation about differentd ays.cal}iug our attention
to festivals. anniversaries of great events, and 50
forth, they predict the times Of new and tull
moon, the hours Of sunrise ia the country fur
which they are written, the dates and parti
culars Of |ccIipses and the time Of high water
at different ports. These predictions can all
be made with tine greatest certainty and eX-
actnesS, because the events depend upon
simple and well understood laws. They are
got at by calculations rs easy foY those who
understand them as the ordinary business
calculations Of every life. The tides, it is
true. are somewhat complicated phenomena
Here in the West Indies they have no import
ance, as they seldom amount to more than o
few inches. A. an extreme example IN the
opposite direction the writer Of these lines
may mention that he has walked over the
bed Of the river Avon at Bristol upon a line
Of boards laid down to save the boots from
being soiled by the river mud, and, six hours
later, has sec9 large barques such as take
sugar from our port, drifting up the river to
the docks at Bristol, Besides the great diff
ference in amount, there are other points that
have to he considered in the tides. Each
place has its pcculiarities. but when these are
thoroughly understood, the making Of a tide
table for the place becomes a simple matter
All the predictions which we have so tar men
toned are safe. because really based on sci
ence, that is to say on positive knowledge. 1t
Is quite different when we come to the Wea-
Their, The best almanacs have nothing TO say
about the weather, simply because their com
pliers know nothing abOuti it. and can know
nothing about it, This IS not because the
weather is outside Of law The weather
is no doubt as thoroughly under laws as the
movements Of the heavenly bodies Some OF
these laws are we'll known, others are OBJ
scure, but whether known or obscure their
action is so complicated that it is impossible
to construct any system Of prediction concern
ing their action. The utmost that can be
done in the way of prediction is this that
when a large area has been covered, as West
ern Europe has been covered, or as the United
States have been covered, with observing sta
tions furnished with first class instruments IN
the charge of trained observers, then the OBJ
servations at the stations, telegraphed to some
common centre, say Paris or London or Wash
iugton, give such a birds eye view OF the
situation that it becomes possible to predict
the weather for any given place say Tor tho
next day or two, In some cases perhaps Tor 90
long as a week or SO: but beyond this there's
no certainty. 1t may be asked then whether
the almanac weather-prophets write down
Their predictions at hap-hazard without any
kind of knowledge to guide them. Probably
not, 1t is easy to conceive that the man who
writes the West Indian prophesies, for exam
pie, learns something about the well known
facts concerning the weather here as estab-
li8hed by long experience When he knows,
for instance, that August IS the worst month
for hurricanes, he can pretty safely thrown
a few stormy days in August, and ho
may be lucky enough TO put down the very
day on which q storm occurs somewhere or
other in the West Indies. A man striking
with a ha mmet in The dalk at a place where
he knows some nailbcads to be projecting
would stand a fair chance of hitting one OF
them now and again. So it is with the al
manac weather prophet. he now and then
makes a lucky hit. But it may be objected that
he must more frequently fail and then he
would lose his character and nobody would be-
lieve in him. So he does more frequently tail,
but he does not lose his character nevertheless;
for the believers in him note only his success
es, his failures they forgotten do not even think
of. We are told, for instance, that a well known
advertising almanac predicted stormy weather
for the 10Th and we had stormy weather, very
stormy weather; that is a nail hit and will be
remembered. The same almanac, we are told.
prophesies stormy weather somewhere between
tho EG{b ond 01ct 1f W.. ch0uld oct GtOTmV