The morning call., 1893-11-19
DELUDED PAGUE.
Orange Groves Weather
Deceived Him.
HIS CANDID CONFESSION.
The Webfoot Prophet Struck by
a Cold Wave.
HIS CANDID CONFESSION
ATMOSPHERIC PoUSsE CAFE
Two Adjacent Layers of Air, One
Warm and One Cold, FrOZe the
T1oisture Into Snow.

6reht was the AbCO0lSnmenI anu uoop
the chagrin in the local Office of the United
States w Gather Bureau yesterday at the
Geographic reports of snow amid the Or
ange groves of Southern California.
The preceding days prediction for
Utah was snow or rain in the northern
portion. and on Friday morning snow was
prophesied for the region about Keller.
These forecasts were happily verified. but
for Southern California the prediction
should have produced cloudy and threaten
ing weather, but no rain. The latter
guess was good so far as it went, but un-
fortunately for its correctness, 1t could
not 60 far enough.
No elaborate circumlocution was neces-
sary for Weather Prophet Pague to make
his explain alton for the climates failure
to act al its keeper said il would.
The local forecast official did not attempt
to turn his defeat into victory, and ad-
vanced no meteorological sOphistrles to
show that his fingers had not been placed
on the atmo spheric pulse when the predic-
tion In question was made.
THAT storm was not forecast by this
bureau" said the Webfoot weatherman
frankly. Il simply got left on 1t, that's
all-got left on it bodily. It's one Of those
things man can't help. The simplest way
Is to ascribe IL to the fortunes OF war. So
as got left there is nothing for me TO do
but to acknowledge the corn.
"W hen | saw this mornings report you
can imagine how l felt 1 looked I'D the
reports in this Office for the past five years,
comparing the conditions with those pre-
vailing in the south for the past two days,
but not in single instance have similar
conditions been followed by precipitation.
That section in Southern California is the
worst to forecast for on the Pacific Coast.
You have the movement OF the lower
pressure up the Lower California coast,
and at the same time the effect of vast
amount of heat from the desert regions
near the Arizona line. The peculiar effects
Of this uuhoIy combination makes it al
most impossible for human power to fore
tell what day may bring forth.
ION Tuesday evening storm of slight
energy moved up the coast, from the south
western Oregon line. On Wednesday
morning the storm was central off Wash
ingtoD, extended over Manitoba. / cannot
say positively that this is the same storm
which has crossed The mountains. but ii is
probably the same. If so. it crossed the
mountains on Wednesday evening, the
tending southeastward over Nevada, under
high pressure.
During this period the barometer re-
NAMED nearly stationary over southern
California. On Thursday there was a fall
in the barometer, and storm at Alberta.
which moved southwark, with its SOUTH
west quadrant over Utah. AS predicted,
snow come that night at Utah. with tenn
perature of 81 degrees. simultaneously
the low temperature noticed at San Diego
and Los Angeles skipped to Keller, the
storm which had been central at Bismarck
moving eastward.
Then l should have predicted rain for
Southern California. l did not do so be-
cause OF the easterly movement Of the
storm from North Dakota, and the rapid
rise OF the barometer over Washington,
with the gradual increase of pressure
southwark as far as San Francisco. / de-
duced that the rise in barometer would
continue and would force the moisture of
the storm eastward, east of the southern
part of California.
Instead, it forced the low pressure at
Keller due south, and SO caused the storm,
which may be said to be supplemental TO
the more northerly disturbance. The
winds that came from the high pressure
were cold. These cold winds meeting the
warm currents in the atmos phere precipi-
tated all the moisture which was in the
air.
"There were two str alta of air near the
surface of the ground around those orange
groves. Upward to an altitude of perhaps
80 feet the air is warm, but right above it
was another layer, much colder. The
moisture passing through this cold stratum
is frozen sufficiently to allow snow to be
formed, and the depth Of the warm air is
not great enough to melt the precipitation
as 1t passes through and reaches the
ground In the form of snow"