Rock Island daily Argus. (Rock Island, Ill.) 1886-1893, 1893-02-16
CHANCE rs UNFAILING
BEHAVIOR OF THE BALL IN A ROU-
LETTE WHEEL SHOWS THIS.

oftener Than tFc Red After Forty-eight
Days Play.
Is there any reason why little ivory ball
spun around a roulette wheel which is pro-
+ vided with thirty-seven little stalls. each of
the same size and number from to &c.
should not fall in the thirty-sixth every
time! Every one will say at once this ques-
ton is absurd. Yet, if it is absurd, can any
one explain why? II at the termination of
one spin the ball has fallen irrto stall No Sc,
why should 1t not fall there again on the
next spin as well MS into any other particu-
lar sta!lI Chance, you will say, is against
1t, and you will be right, but probably
without being able to give satisfactory
reason why-that is, it is not an easy mat
ter to give proper definition of the word
chance
record has been published giving the
results of forty eight days play at roulette
table No. 2 at Monte Carlo This record
was made up by persons not connected
with the establishment. and is probably
accurate. 1t shows that in these forty
eight days play the ball on this particular
table was spun 81 ,3I4 times On the rou-
iette table two coIors are recognized, black
and red, and they are equally distributed
among the thirty six stalls of the wheel
teXcIud!ng the Zero) and we should EXPECT
mat out OF such a great number of spins
the red and the black should have appeared
an equal number OF times What actually
occurred is graphically represented as fol
lows: Number of spins. 81 ,S14-hlack. IS.
292. red l., 2s3
In other words. after spinning the little
ivory ball around the wheel 81 So consecu-
tive tmes-a task which occupied the
greater part Of each day for forJy-eight
days-the black appeared Just nine times
oiJeucr than &c ~. Tx ...,.,...-g .... Tho
difference between the two culors for each
DAY OF the forty eight was si...c,... md SIC
greatest difference between them on any
one day was hlty-sevcn. The greatest total
HibeTence between them at any one time
was lOS-that Is. from the beginning of the
forty eight days Of which the record was
Kept the black and the red were never more
than los apart, and at the end of the month
and half they were practically even
Again, in 81 ,314 spins, any first class gam
bier Will tell you, each of the thirty-seven
numbers Gncluding the zero should have
appeared 81 times
He will not be able to tell YOU WHY il
should be so. He will merely say that in
the long run it must be so, because it has
always been SO in the past. As matter of
s4i times. Ten other numbers appeared
within the range from $40 to $50. and Is
other numbers from s34 to s5s So that out
of 81 numbers &c appeared within % of the
correct mathematical average. OF the re-
naming numbers appeared within so Of
the required S41, and the other were
somewhat farther out of the way, but the
greatest error of all was 20 which is pretty
good considering the number of spins. If
the record had been compiled after twice
as many spins the error would probably
have been reduced one-half
Suppose that instead Of spinning the rou-
iette ball the keeper of the roulette table
were to employ human being to call colt
one or other of the thirty-seven numbers
10000 times in succession, and were to in
struct him to maintain all the averages of
these many chances with approximate ac-
curacy, and to do so without EMPLOYING
any method or regularity detachable by the
keenest scrutiny. Even suppose that the
roulette keeper were considerable enough to
allow the human being to use "A lead pencil
and paper and whatever other mechanical
convenience he might name as well as I'M
limited time, he would find the task beyond
his powers. and if he were required to make
all the calculations rapidly aud in his head
he would .oau give it up i'm disgust or be |
come hoWliHg maniac
And yet chance does il every dav in the
year. And it does il in such Il Kramer as !
to battle the intelligence Of al! who try to |
discover any method in its work 1t per
forms 1t so rs to neglect no interest, leave !
out no combination, color, number or Sc
ries. Chance therefore does what hu-
man being can never hope to do.
There are many persons however, who |
n n nv IN, oh
find it difficult TO believe that chance is !
absolutely impartial You may hear a man |
whose opinions or other subjects YOU would (
receive with respect, Cravely declare for !
instance, that longer series are encountered !
at "Trente ct quarante' than at roulette. or (
vice versa. Or, again. that there are not so !
many long series ON odd and even as there /
are on the colors, or perhaps that certain /
numbers have Il tendency to follow certain !
others.
There are the superstitious players-those |
who back the number of their room at the !
hotel, or of the railroad car in which they J
Travelled, or the first number they notice on
entering the salOn-or some number they /
dream of, read OF or hear repeated. Hun !
dreds do this every day, and it therefore |
follows, the odds being only &c to against !
each, that several must do so successfully. |
But the losers are reticent; only those who |
win talk much about it, and thus supersti- !
ton is kept alive.
Clustering of events is absolutely neces- |
sary in order to maintain an average. An |
average can only be kept up in one or two |
ways l. By perfect regularity. 9. By clus- !
tering. 1t is impossible that events over /
which we have no control, such as fires, |
or railroad accidents, should |
take place regularly. If, for instance, you
learned from statistics that the average |
number of fires in some large town during |
a period of twenty years was thirty-six, to |
find that that exact number took place ev-
cry year would be more remarkable than |
that fewer took place some years and more |
during others.
Periodicity, then, is very observable on |
the gaming table; each number appears |
once in thirty-seven times on an average, |
but not every thirty-seventh time; there |
fore it appears in numbers, more or less |