New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1893-06-18
HOPE FOR THE ARMY BILL.
ALL DEPENDS ON THE SECOND BALLOTS. OF
WHICH ABOUT 600 WILL BE NEEDED.
MEMBERsELECT FAvORING THE BILL. SO; o.
POSING 1T, s5; WITH THIRTY DIS.
TRICTS TO HEAR FROM-COL-
LAPSE OF THE RICHTER

TRICTS TO HEAR FROM-COL.
LAPSE OF THE RICHTER
PARTY.
Berlin, June 1.-The returns have almost
ceased coming in, although reports from thirty
districts are still lacking. At IL o'clock mid
night the Army bill parties and groups have
eighty-three seats; the opposition parties, eighty
five. All depends upon the second ballots Tho
Government has decided to exert all its influence
TO induce all the factions favorable to the bill
TO unite against the Richterists. Social Demo-
Gratis and Clericas in the bye-electons, which
will be held about one week from tomorrow.
Second ballots will be necessary, it is estimated.
in almost 200 districts. The returns received
so far have not been complete enough to render
possible accurate predictions OF the result. Of
the thirty-ninc districts from which all the fig
ures bearing on the second ballot have been
received it appears certain that the ClericalS
will win twenty-fve the Social Democrats two:
the National Liberals. Conservatives and Agrar~
an six, and the Partcularists. one. The Raiicu
Unionists expected TO gain several moro Seats
Reports from all parts of the Empire continue
TO give evidence Of the collapse OF Eusen
Renters Radical larty. The South German
Democrats, with whom the Richersts joined
hands al the opening of the campaign 20 nght
more excessively against the Army bill at the polls,
have secured five seats, one of them won from
the National Liberals, and are likely TO enter the
next Rciehs,ag with their delegation increased
from ten to fourteen or fifteen. Not dlspatch
has been received to nlicate that the Richterists
have carried constituency on tho first ballot
This failnr" is due p,rly to the fact
that the Radicals who deserted Richter TO make
"a Government campaign under the banner OF the
Radical Union the cream Of the old party.
Excepting Virchow, hardly a conspicuous Deputy
stood by Richter after the dissolution OF tI1
Reichstag. Rickert. Broemcl, IIinze. Barth. Edi-
tor of the Nation: Siemcns and Haenel deserted
at once 20 the Government The dissidcnts arc
known 70 lave elected two Deputies and TO have
the best chances of electing eight more
on the second ballot. The Richtersts, who con-
stitutcd twD-thirds of the Parliamentary party OF
siXty-seven, will bring probably few more than
twenty members into the next Reichstag
This state of affairs is distinctly favorable to
the Government, as the los. Of the Radical Oppo-
sitiOn is expected more than to counterbalance the
gains of the Social Democratic opposition.
An analysis of the reballots shows that the
Social Democrats and National Liberals viii, figure
chiefly in them, with the Richersts and Gem
trists long way behind. The defeat of the Rich
torists appears TO he irretrievable Their organs
admit the crushing character Of the disaster, but
the Eerin "Frc-innige Zeitung" finds comfort
in predicting that the ultimate poll OF III" party
combined with the Noksparte tcntrsts ard
Socialists will form an overwhelming pleblsclte
against the Army bill and the Huene compromise.
II is certain that il the pebiscte were 10 decide
the fate Of the Government the enormous Socialist
vote already cast would determine that. But the
Army bill will depend upon final party combina-
tions regarding which il is stiM hazardous to at
tempt to form any dednitive conclusion. He1
Richter himself says il is doubtful whether ma
jority against the bill can Yet be inferred from
the ascertained results.
In calculating what accession Of strength the
Socialists will gain in the Rcchstag the fact
must he remembered that the whole force Of
the party has always hitherto been polled on
the first ballot, whereas other parties, through
anti Socialist coalitions, show the greatest strength
on rebaot II wds thus in 1890, when the
Trcisinnigc party won in all thrty-ive of the
rcballots between them and the Socialists About
eighty Socialists will stand in the coming re-
ballots, and il is a rational estimate 10 credit
them with securing twenty-siX more seats. Before
tho elections Herr Vollmar one Of the sanest
heads Of the party, predicted that fifty OF his
colleagues would appear in the new Rechstag.
What ought to concern the Government quito
much as the increase of the Socialists in Pa'lia-
ment is the development of Socialism throughout
the country.
The Anti-Senites are now believed 10 be likely
to secure twelve seats. Ahlwardt and BoeclleA
the most blatant members OF the last Parlia-
mentary group, have already been returned. The
aggregate vote of the Ant-Semtes has increased
amazingly since 1890 The National Liberals, ac-
cording to the reports received up 10 ocloc, this
morning, are likely to return TO Berlin with APP
Oh oId dali of e.,
The Opposition Clericas under DIR. Licber have
retained virtually all their old constituencies, so
far as can he ascertained. The Government Ci,ri-
ca-Agrarian movement under Freiherr Schorle-
mcr- -Alst and Freiherr Won Huene has shown no
evidences of success
Both the Conservatives and National Liberals
are coming out fetter than it expected they
would. both having to fight many reballots against
the Socialists. These two parties must rely upon
cooperation in order TO defeat their common
enemy. The National Liberals have the best
chance in the rich manufacturing districts like
Flberfed B,rmen. Mannheim, Darmstadt and
l,ochum, where they succeeded in pulling their
candidates through TO a reballot.
In general the advantages gained by the Gov.
crnmcnt are to be found in the prospect that some
ten Radical Cnionists Who voted against the
Army bill, and who now favor it, have good pros
poets of sitting in the next Reichstag and that
the Anti-Scmitic representation partially favora.
BILE to the Government. bids fair to be greatly in
creased. II the National Liberals, Free Conser.
vatvcs and Conservatives malSr a binding cartel
in all close districts, they will be able to rauy
fully l75 votes for the Government at the OPEN
ng Of the Reichstag Both Chancellor Won Caprivf
md Count Eulenburg, Prussian Minister President.
have been reused from their apathy. and will set
the bureaucratic machinery of the Government I'M
operation to this end.
Chancellor Won Caprivi held conferences with
he Emperor on Thursday and again last evening.
eporting the character Of the returns
II is rather significant that the semi-ofIic.l
'rgans to-day recur to suggestions as to how "a
urb the popular vote. Regarding the Centrista.
he recent schisms do not appear likely seriouslv