The morning call., 1893-12-24
A VERY HEAVY MORTALITY.
No Novelties or Lavish DISPLAYS
in London.
WAR ALARM AGAIN SOUNDED.
A Combined Descent Upon Constan-
tinopie Is Among the Possibilities
of the Future.

NEW YORK, Dec. 23.-Rarod Frederic
cables to the Times from London: The
proverb about a full churchyard and a
green Christmas is no new thing, but II
must be long time since anything SO dis
couragingly verdant in midwinter was ex-
perienced in Northern Europe. There has
Deen no Saturday as yet this season when
London's swarms of golfers have been
stopped by the weather from going out be-
yond the suburbs to play a game on the
open green turf. With the exception of an
eVanes ent furry of month ago there has
been no hint of snow and hardly frost
worth mentioning. The trees and shrubs
throughout Southern England have budded
and there are reports here and there of
early planted crocuses being already in
bloom.
| Closely linked with these are other re-
ports of all exceptionally high death rate
everywhere. which is explained only in
part by Influenza. The Christmas trade is
said to be worse than usual. principally a
decrease with Continental manufacturers
who have al increasing monopoly. Brit
ish holidays wares seem this year to have
produced nothing at all in the way Of at
tractive novelties. 1t is noted that the use
Of holly and mistletoe. which formerly was
a most distinctive feature in the English
Christmas, has gone out. particularly
among shopkeepers. For every dozen
stores thus decorated ten years ago there is
hardly one to-day.
Similar accounts of mild weather and
a large mortality come from all parts of
the Continent. and the grea. fur interests
centering in Leipsic and Vienna, which or
n m rIl In frn
| Christmas time, are threatened this year
with grave losses.
Throughout the continent of Europe
there is estimated to BE- 130.O 600 more men
under arms than at last Christmas. Now
| the universal expectation is that when
Christmas comes around IL will find an al
tered map. The strain is too heavy. Some
thing must give way somewhere during the
coming year. There is no exaggeration
in speaking of this view as universal.
So keen and tranquil an observer as Sir
| Charles Dixie, who has always been in the
| habit of assuring me when matters seemed
critical that the chances were heavily
against war, has now changed his mind.
This is true of other students of the inter-
national situation less we'll known, but
whose opinions carry great weight. All
i
increasingly so in the spring we may be
| prepared Tor succession of war alarms
much more definite and violent than any
during recent years. just at this moment
Constantinople appears to be the center OF
/ appreheD sion. Private letters came
yesterday from a parsonage long and
| intimately connected with British diplo-
macy ln the East saying that the Sultan's
terror OF assassin alton or of a popular up
| rising has reached the stage Of acute panic:
| that the whole city is in a state of unrest
| and fright, such as existed when Abdul
| AZiZ was murdered. and it is seriously
believed that there will be a sensational
| change Of some sort during the next few
weeks. Much of his doubtless turns upon
| the fear that Russia intends a sudden
naval descent upon the Bosphorus and
| DaIdaneiles. All experts agree that Con-
stantinople is practically unable to offer
| defense against such a descent. The
| Turkish fleet is well laid up inside the in
| ner horn without coal or munitions of
war. The shore forts are quite antquated
| and worthless.
| Ii Russia made such an attempt its prac-
tical result would be the union of her
| Black Sea and Mediterranean fleets.
! totll CT eleven vessels, backed by ten
! French, which makes twenty.one to offset
| England's thirteen in those waters. In
| ease of such demonstration, of course,
| there would be state of war and actual
| hostilties would be a matter of hours
| rather than days. The space of single
| fortnight might cover not only the Seizure
| Of Constantinople and its nominal de-
! fenses. but also great naval battle with
the odds severely against England. am
| not saying that such sinister springing
events are regarded here a likely to hap
| pen, whatever may be feared in tumid
| StambOul, but the whole thing is quite
among the possibilities.
| Less spectacular. but quite as serious al
the International aspect, is Greece's pro-
| posed reputation of her debts. This is
what the Tricoupis financial programme
| really Involves. The Greek exterior gold
loans, amounting to over 100000, 600, and
| chiefly held In England and Germany, are
| secured by bypothecating certain forms of
internal taxation. The TricOupis pro-
! gramme proposes to annul these pledges
aud declare these taxes availa BILE for eoy-
ernmental uses instead. No doubt, with
their public debt of $50 per capita, the
| Greeks find this an extremely comfortable
way out of the dilemma; but the London
and Berlin Foreign Offices have served
plain notice that no such thing will be
permitted, aud l know that steps to en-.
| force this warning are in contemplation,
which the officials here regard as grave in
the extreme. Here, also. everything is
felt to have been altered by the fact of the
| presence of Russian warships in the Med
iterraneap. This indeed seems likely to
be one of the principal occurrences for
Which the year 1893 will be memorable.