The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1893-08-24

Frcnch Government had shown an unwill-
ingness TO punish the authors Of the mas
sacre ut Aigues- Mortes, an outbreak OF hos
tilities could hardly have been prevented.
and yet. although the first overt act OF war
| might be chargeable to Italy. 1t could be
fairly argued that the provocation really
came from France. Suppose. on the other
hand. that Russia should notify Germany
and Austria that. II they interposed on the
side OF Italy In a war with France, the great
Northern Empire would endeavor TO re-
store an equilibrium by espousing the
French cause. In view OF such warning.
might not the Berlin and Vienna Govern
ments deem 1t prudent to stand by the
letter OF their agreements and leave Italy
to face single-handed conflict which she
had technically begun
IL the sole combatants were France and
Italy. there could be scarcely any doubt
about the Issue OF the contest. Even IL the
whole italian standing army. including the
reserves, could be concentrated In Pied
mont and Lombardy. they would be out
numbered more than two to one by the
French forces which might be arrayed
against them in that quarter. 1t is true
that the Italian side OF the Alpine frontier.
which stretches from Switzerland to the
Mediterranean. Is said to be strongly
fortified but this advantage would
be more than compensated by the ac-
knowledged superiority OF the French
in the matter OF mobilization. Having
once reached the valley OF the Pc.
they would have the preponderance. not
only In numbers. but in respect OF military
efficiency. They are at least as good soldiers
rs the Austrians, who made short work Of
the Italians at CustoZZa In the war OF 1865.
With the exception Of the Piedmontese. the
italian rank and file have never in recent
times exhibited remarkable military quail
ties. although the Lombard levies under
Prince EUGENE BEAUHARNAIs rendered
good service in the Napoleonio wars. We
suppose that nothing would more astonish
military experts than an italian victory
in pitched battle with the French.
where the forces engaged we're nearly
equal. As a matter Of fact. however. the
Italians would by no means be able to
concentrate the whole OF their standing
army. including the reserves. in Lombardy.
A considerable part OF the effective land
force would have to be detailed for the de-
fence Of the various seaports of the
peninsula against the French feet, which
would have complete ascendancy at sea.
So far. then. as the outcome Of any war can
DO predicted. we may take for granted that.
In contest limited to France and Italy. the
latter country would be overrun. and. I'M
less eventually succored by the other GEN.
trail powers. would be exposed to grlevous
spoliation and Acknowledgement
But II Germany and Austria would have
to come forward In the end to save from
ruin their nominal ally. wise policy would.
1t seems. dictate an earlier interposition.
This is why it is generally believed that.
whatever pretext for neutrality might have
been found in the letter OF treaties and
whatever threats might have been made by
Russia. the Berlin and Vienna Governments
would have felt constrained to side with |
Italy. had the Aigues- Mortes incident occa-
stoned war; The existing balance Of power |
in Europe would be seriously disturbed II |
any Of the members Of the Triple Alliance |
were to be dismembered or materially |
weakened. In word. the practical out |
come Of the present state Of things on the |
Continent is that war anywhere would mean |
war everywhere.