The St. Johns herald., 1893-03-16
THE NEGROES DESTINY.
Relative Decrease Of Our Colored
 Population.
Striking Facts Developed by the Last Census-Something About the Fu- ture Distribution of the
 Race,

Nasty organizations concerning the future numerical strength of the negro in this country, based on his propor- tionate high birth rate, and the mislead- ing reports of the census of 1870, have done more than anything else to render the negro problem a question of politi- cal manipulation. Only two years ago the presiding officer of a political con vention stated that at no distant future the colored population would reach 50,- O00,000. Statements such as this arc regarded with different degrees of satis- faction, and if true the negro would himself soon overrun this continent.
 The crudity of statements such as this, which can be used so disastrously for political purposes, is shown by Gen. Francis A. Walker in the Forum, in an article slzetching the future of the negro, based on the statistics of the race back to 1908, when the slave trade was abol- ished. At that time, or from the census of 1910, the negro numbered TOO, GOO, or 19 per cent. of the entire population. In the recent census he is but 11.9 of the entire population, or, while the white population has increased 16 fold, the negro has increased but 10 fold. Taking the statistics by 10 and 20 year periods since 1910, Gen. Walker shows that the increase by per cent. has de- clined steadily, and asserts that in all probability this steady reduction in the negro's relative importance in the pop ulation will never be reversed.
 In confirmation he examines in detail the respective birth and death rates in 2S southern counties of equal popula- ton, black and white, based on the tenth census, and finds that per 1,G00 births of those born and dying, the rate for whites was 100.1 against 140.8 blacks. The proportion of death rates between blacks and whites in the large cities is greater against the blacks. In New Orleans the death rate for whites was 2557, blacks 36. In St. Louis, whites 1919, blacks 33.78. The results show that the negro race is maintain ing its slight rate of increase only by means of very high birth rate over very high death rate.
 Another fact worth noting is the future geographical distribution of the negro, now that he can move freely from place to place. As q slave, the tropically bred negro was forced to fol- low the interests of his northern bred master, often into regions where he lived only at sacrifice of vitality. Comparing between 1S80-9O the rates of increase in Delaware, Maryland, Vir- ginia, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee and North Carolina with the cotton growing states, it is found to be 19 per cent. in the latter against per cent in the former. The inference is that in those parts of the country where the negro is not an economic necessity, the black population will become more and more reduced by the entrance of a vigorous white element. Industrial considerations at the same time will draw him to his more natural habitat, the Gulf states, where the white man cannot take his place. Whatever growth may be expected from the col ored race will take place there, and it is not probable that q race so limited in it's range will ever reach to one-third even of 50, 0,000,000.
 To recapitulate, the negro in 1790 was one-fifth the population; in 1S40, but one-sixth; in 1860. one-seventh; in 1890, less than one-eiShth. Industrial reasons and natural tendencies arc draining him off toward the low lands of the gulf of Mexico andthere his greatest rate of in- crease will be felt, which in the nature of things will be constantly decreasing in its relation to the total population.
 Facts such as these indicate that the negro problem will become less and less rather than more and more a po- litical problem, and that the solution may reasonably be left to the opera tion of physiological and economic laws.