Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1892-11-02
NEW YORK WILL BE CLOSE.
Both Parties Claim to BE Able to Garry the
State.


State.
Special Dispatch 10 The Evening Star.
NEW YORK, November 2. ls92
There can be no doubt that the result Of the
registration has proved discoursging to the
democrats In regard TO New York state. Still,
they do not by any means concede that New
York will be lost TO them. The statisticaas
here and in other parts Of the state are labor
ing with the figures. and while the republicans
extract large amount OF comfort from them,
the democrats insist that they are not SO bad
after all. And the fact that the offers
made at the Hoffman House to bet 81 900 to
500 on Cleveland carving New York state still
remain untaken shows that there is not an over
.whelming confidence on the part Of those who
are claiming that the registration insures re-
publican success in this state. Those who look
the matter squarely in the face see that il is SO
close in regard to New York stnte
tina the weight OF q hair NAV apparently
turn the scales. The New sun. which in
Its election figures is generally pretty accurate,
takes up the registration below the Harlem and
anal Yves 1t. IL estimates that there will be fall
ing of from the registration OF per cent and
that this will reduce the democratic majority in
New York city to 10000. and that the majority
IN the other cities below the Harlem will bring
the total up to 81 900.
ANALyzISG THE REGISTRATION
1t calculates the republican majority above
the city at $1,000 if the full registration is
voted, which would leave an uncomfortably
close margin. 1t calculates. however. that there
Will be as great a disparity between the regis
tration and the actual vote outside of New
York, and in view Of that fact argues for a
snng democratic plurality in the state. The
with the registration problem. 1t di-
vides the state into three sections:
First. the interior cities, numbering thirty.
which gave Harrison four years ago 5000 out
of his $4,000 plurality; second, the cities OF
New York and Brooklyn, and third. the state
| outside OF the incorporated cities. This third
part. or agricultural New York. gave Harrison
5000 more plurality in 1883 than New York and
BROOKLYN gave Cleveland. 1t proceeds to argue
upon this basis: First tina. there will be an in
crease in the democratic majority in New York
and Brooklyn over 1888; second. that the thirty
cities in the interior of the state will not give
Harrison any greater plurality than they did
four years ago. and thirdly, that the country
will not do well for him as il did in 1883. Ii
is. however, charmingly indefinite in these
three propositions, for ii does not intimate how
much it thinks the democrats will gain in New
York and Brooklyn, or how much the republi-
cans will lose in the country districts.
1t will be seen therefore. that the democrats
by their own figures sailing very close to
the wind. and that although they still claim a
and do not indicate a claim Of any considerable
plurality.
REPUBLICAN EsTIMATEs.
On the other hand the republicans are more
definite in their claims They show. as pointed
out in these dispatches on Monday. that there
is an actual falling of in the registration In
New York city. below 40th street, in sections
Overwhelmingly democratic, il has actually fallen
5000 below the registration of four years ago
and in the two chief interior cities of the
state the falling off is more than 5000.
The increased registration in New York,
it Is argued by the republicans. is
very largely in the sections where the republi-
| cans are the strongest. For instance. in the
twenty first assembly district. which is repub-
lican, the increase is "a per cent; in the
eleventh district, also republican. the increase
| Is 33 per cent: in the twenty-seventh district,
where there is a heavy republican vote. the in
crease il Al per cent, and in the twenty-third. a
republican district. the increase is 81 per cent
On the whole. therefore. there can be no
doubt that the republicans have more reason to
extract comfort from the result of the registra-
ton than have the democrats Yet, on the other
hand, there stands that bald fact that offers to
bet $1,000 against 500 that Cleveland viii
carry New York still remain uutaken-
THE GENERAL RESULT.
So much for New York. Now as to the gen.
eral result. Be the betting what it may on
New York state there can be no doubt that on
the general result the opinion Of the
men who back their views with their
money is favorable TO Harrison. Thou
sands upon thousands of dollars-yes
tens upon tens of thousands of dollars
are lying at the stock exchange. at the Hoffman
House and at various other points. offered as
even bets on the election of Harrison and with
no takers. Senator Quay. whose opinion will
be read with interest by the peo-
pie Of Washington, said of the
situation before leaving for Philadelphia:
| Mr.. Harrison will be elected 1t is my
belief that he will carry the states of New
York, Indiana ard Connecticut. Indiana and
Connecticut will elect him without New York 3"
II may also interest the friends Of Chairman
Carter to know that Senator Quay says Of the
work Of the committee: II have gone very care
fully through the details OF their labor up TO
the present time and have canvassed with them
their propositions for the future. Their ad-
ministration has been faultless.'