The Portland daily press., 1892-10-15
A PROPHETIC VISION.
Walter WeIlman UnfOlds the Future
as it Appears to Him.
An Impartial Review of the Present Po-
IiticaI Situation, with an Estimate of the
Probable Results in Novemb er-Changed

Probable Results in Novem ber-Changed
Conditions in the West and South.
Especial Correspondence
WASHINGTON, Oct. 13.-Who will win
the presidency next month? Is it to be
Cleveland or Harrison? The man does
not live who is smart enough to tell be-
fore the votes are counted. He may
think he knows, and may confidently
assert his belief and give his reasons,
but he is only guessing at it. AS rule
the man who knows it all simply voices
his wish in uttering his predictions
There is lots of humbug in politics,
but the biggest imposition is that which
the rabid partisan puts upon himself.
Because he is Republican or Demo-
GRAFT and wants Harrison or Cleveland
elected, ergo his party is all perfection
and prosperity, and his candidate is
sure to win. Of course there are ra-
tional men who do not permit their
party love to run away with their judg-
ment-men who like to sit down and
discuss the situation with calm judg-
ment and clear discernment.
/ take it for granted that you, reader,
are this sort of man. And having had
better opportunities than some of you to
know what is going on in the political
world-having Travelled during the last
three weeks in New York, New England
and four or five of the southern states
having met and talked with prominent
and sensible men of both parties from
all sections of the country want to
give you my impressions as to the prob
able result of the great campaign. ]
shall do so very frankly.
l see no warrant for the belief that
there is to be a tidal wave in any direc-
ton. Changes from one party to the
other are always going on, but l see no
more of them in this campaign than
were seen in its predecessors. In my
Judgment the states which have hereto
fore been ''close" will be "close" now.
It is at the same time true that there is
a much greater number of these "close"
states than ever before.
In my last letter gave the number
of these doubtful states at eighteen, with
17S electoral votes. Now, with another
week in which to gain information, l
would add to rather than take from that
list. This remarkable increase in the
number of doubtful states over past
campaigns is due principally to four
causeS-to witt $50 sii5sz
First-General apathy among the
voters of the north, producing a listless
campaign, and due largely to the fact
that both candidates are old, having
run one of them once and the other twice
already.
Second-Slow but steady growth of
the tariff reform sentiment among the
agriculturalists of the northwest and
the town people of New England.
Third-The peculiar conditions exist
ing in the south, where the Democratic
party is dividing into factions and the
white people into castes-poor whites
against the aristocracy, and country
people against town people-and where
! the rival castles are bidding for the col
| ored vote because it holds the balance
| of power.
| Fourth-Presence of third party,
which is weakening the Democrats in
the south and the Republicans in the
west, and which also, by means of flu
| sion in various states, is upsetting party
| lines and the calculations of the poll
| ticians.
Reducing all these and other cur
rents of public opinion to two, think
can see northern drift toward Democ-
| ..,l . eo,,tbor,, drift touord Pa.
| publicanism. At the approaching cleo
| ton expect to see small break in the
solidity of the Democratic south, and a
corresponding break in the solidity OF
the Republican west. It is well that
these threatened changes come, or prom,
| Use to come, together. When they dc
come-and if they come not now they
surely will in the near future sectional
lines will be obliterated, the country
will become more truly national, and
the tyrannical dominance of the Empire
State in the national politics of both par.
ties will reach an end-;s result sincerely
wished for by all patriotic men, ire
spective of party affiliations.
In this letter wish to discuss in de
| tall some OF Gnc eighteen uOuDtlul SGdCoS
Connecticut is in my Judgment the only
doubtful state in New England. Ii
| Massachusetts there is an evident
! drift toward Democracy, but the change
will not come this year. The re
serve Republican vote is likely to be
brought out, and look to see the state
go for Harrison by about $4,000 ma
| iority. New Hampshire is close, but
probably safely Republican by from
1900 to 1900.
Connecticut is really doubtful. IL
1880 Garfield carried it by $500, and
though the Democrats have always wor
since that year their pluralities have
been very SLENDER, 2S4 in 1884, 1856 in
1888 and only 26 at the state election Of
1890. This year the Republicans are
perhaps stronger than usual, because
the Mckinley act helps the tobacco
growers, and in total vote of 100000
| d0not look fcr more than 500 plurality
either way.
| West Virginia is doubtful Secretary
Elkins is making the fight Of his life
there, the understanding being that he
| must win in order to maintain himself