The Jersey City news., 1892-06-16
Cleveland and Hin at Chicago.

the nominee of the Chicago conven-
ton. He will enter the fight with a
comparatively small backing, and he
will probably lose strength steadily to
the end of the contest.
On the other hand, it would be un-
safe to say that MIR. Cleveland has
walEover for the nomination. There
are very many adverse forces at work,
not the least being the Hill minority.
In the end, his friends may have to
withdraw him in favor of q compro-
mise candidate. But Mr.. Cleveland
will enter tho Convention with very
great strength indeed, and the prob
ability, viewing the situation from
this distance OF time and place, would
seem to be that he would grow in
strength as the struggle progressed.
On the whole, reducing the outlook
to the convenient phraseology Of the
betting book, we should say the
chances were from two to three to one
in iaycr of MIR. Clevelands nomina-
tion, and about ten to one against
Senator Hill.
The Convention will consist of S09
delegates. 1t takes twothirds vote
to nominate, and therefore the winner
must have 500 delegates Two very
interesting estimates of the opening
strength have been prepared. One
represents the hopes OF the Hill lead
ers. 1t apportions the delegates
thus
Cleveland, 1885, Hill, 1856; Palmer,
43; Carlisle, 35; Boies, 90.
This would leave Mr.. Cleveland 1G6
: votes short of winning on the first bal
( lot, with 125 votes unaccounted for.
The Hill peoples hopes were that all
these floating votes, the support of
the minor candidates and even some
of Mr.. Cleveland's hackers could be
won over to the sleek and sly David
on the second ballot on the theory
which is, of course, the whole back
bone OF the Hill canvass--that Cleve-
land would have difficulty in carrying
New York State.
The second estimate is that of Gen
eral Tracey of Albany, and it repre-
sents the most sanguine eXpectatio ms
of the Cleveland boomers. If there is
any truth in its rosy promises. the
battle is ended before it is begun.
This estimate divides up the Conven-
tion in the following fashion,
Cleveland. G44; Hill, 1876; Boies, AZ;
German, 1G.
Boies is given the votes OF Iowa and
Nebraska; Gorman gets those of
Maryland only. General Tracey eX-
plains all the questionable points in
his table ingeniously if not convinc-
ingly The Hill table claims 49 votes
in Illinois for Palmer, but he gives
them to Cleveland for the reason that
the Convention instructed for Cleve-
land, and the delegates were to vote
for Palmer only in the event that
Cleveland is not considered an avail
able candidate. In the same way he
counts the 26 votes of Kentucky for
Cleveland, for while the delegates are
undoubtedly friendly to Mr.. Carlisle
and would like to see him nominated,
General Tracey does not think he will
be, and that Cleveland is certainly
their second choice. Hills friends
also give Cleveland only eight votes
in Pennsylvania, while the instruc-
tions were to give him the entire GA
votes as a unit. In the same way
Hilrs friends claim for him 10 votes
in Missouri, and give Cleveland "a,
while the instructions were to give
the entire vote to Cleveland.
If all doubt regarding New York
State were set at rest, there is no
doubt but Mr.. Cleveland would be
Nominated on the first ballot. The
i Nomination is due him as the best,
purest, most unselfish and wisest
statesman in the party; as the best
President the country has had in a
quarter OF a century; as the man who
has laid down and defined the doc
trines which at present hold its adher-
ents to the Democratic party. The
= party owes MI. OleV0lJlu tlte llOIllhd-
tion; it owes his nomination to the
Country as the best guarantee OF
good legislation and good admin
istration that it can offer. The
popular demand for Mr.. Cleveland's
nomination is simply overwhelming,
save in one single quarter. We repeat
that MS matter of duty and expe-
diency alike, Mr. Cieveland's election
would be certainty if New York
were not in doubt.
But there would DO no doubt about
New York if there were no doubt of
the loyalty of Mr.. Hilrs supporters.
The State has been carried time and
again by steadily increasing major
tiles. Last year Governor Flower
beat Mr.. Fassett by $4,000 votes.
Harrison is unpopular, and Reid is
simply abominated by the social ele-
ment. which does not warm cordially
TO Mr.. Cleveland, the organized body
OF workingmeu. Ii there is not black,