Pittsburg dispatch. [volume] (Pittsburg [Pa.]) 1880-1923, 1892-08-20
ELECTORAL POSSIBILITIES.

The approach of the season when cam
paign work will begin in the field renders
speculation as to the electoral vote in
order. Numerous calculations of the vote
have been published, all varying widely
according to the point of view. There
are so many combinations that it is i'm
possible to follow them all out, but one or
two leading points are worth fixing in the
mind.
In the first place, supposing the States
to retain the places i'm the political col
umns taken in 1883, the Republicans will
have much larger margin to 90 on than
they did then. The States which voted
for Harrison in 1888 have, under the new
apportionment, 249 votes, those which
voted for Cleveland 175 votesa and the States
admitted since then have 20 votes. On
this division the Republicans have 26
votes to spare without taking any of the
new States. On the other hand, if we
count as Democratic the States that have
since 1888 gone Democratic in two
elections we shall have to transfer
New York, Iowa and Massachusetts,
to the Democratic column, and this
shift of 64 votes makes the two parties
change places, the Democrats having 249
votes and the Republicans 175 without
counting the new States. But with the
new States counted, and division Of
these three States made, another combina-
tionis rendered possible. If the Republicans
carry only the ten votes of South Dakota,
Idaho and Wyoming, they can lose New
York and win. If they carry all the new
States, as is probable, they can lose New
York and four votes from Michigan and
have six to spare. If they carry New
York and all the new States they can lose
Indiana, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and
the four Michigan votes and still have two
votes to spare; or, if Iowa be exchanged
for either Indiana or Massachusetts, they
will have four votes to 60 on.
Another way of figuring is to exclude
the States which are supposed to be
doubtful. Excluding the IS votes of New
York, Indiana, Massachusetts,, Connecti-
cut and Iowa, and giving ten of Mlchi-
gan's votes 10 the Republicans and four to
the Democrats, this leaves 1856 Republican
votes and 173 Democratic. To win the Re-
publicans must get 81 votes and the Demo-
Gratis must get 30 from the doubtful list
On this calculation, if tine Republicans
carry New York, any other single State
will complete the victory. Or if they lose
New York they can win with Indiana,
Iowa and Massachusetts,. On the other
hand the Democrats must carry New York
and either Indiana or Massachusetts,, or
New York and Iowa and Connecticut to-
gether.
These calculations can be further varied
by putting Montana in the doubtful list
or supposing that the Democrats get five
votes in Michigan. But it has been carried
far enough to show that New York and
Indiana are likely to retain much, though
not all, of their former pivotal position.
The calculations show that on the old
party divisions the Republican party has
less to win from the doubtful States than
the Democratic party. The doubtful ele-
ment is the possibility of inroads on the
Republican States by the
Peoples party. With the clear under
that to carry enough electoral
votes to affect the situation would insure
the election of Cleveland, it is not likely
that the Northwestern States will give any
votes to the new political organ
iZation.