Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1892-06-17


II IL within the bounds Of possibility that
Cleveland may be nominated on the hrst ballot
at Chicago, but even conservative Cleveland
men do not now look for such result. To
bring it about all other candidates, with the ex-
ception Of Hill and Boies, will have to be elimi-
mated from the calculations It s possible that the
Cleveland managers at Chicago may be able to
SO impress the delegates from states having
favorite sons with the belief that Cleveland
must eventually win that they will refrain
from putting their candidates into the field at
all and will throw their votes to the ex-
President from the start. These states are In
diana, Illinois and Kentucky. Pennsylvania
also has a favorite son in Gov. Pattison, who is
being talked up strongly, according to Chicago
dispatches with the evident purpose Of in
spring his friends with the belief that he may
get the nomination If he is given a chance. But
it is not likely that the Pennsylvania delegation
will fail to vote for Cleveland on
the first ballot. In Indiana, where the
between Gray and Cleveland, the supporters of
the former will not, Of course, vote for Cleve-
land on the first ballot if they believe their man
has any chance Of finally securing the first place
on the ticket, and il the vote Of Indiana ia given
solidly to Cleveland it will nominate him. But
delegates really believe Gray's nomination for
the first place possible, while his chances Of
getting second place are good in case Cleveland
gets first place. In view Of this fact it would
not be an unlikely thing for the Gray men to
turn in with the Cleveland men of their dele
CATION on the first ballot, with the hope or the
arrangement that Gray will get second place.
KENTUCKY AND CARLISLE.
In Kentucky if Senator Carlisle consents to
In ~ no 81
will go for him. A Representative Caruth put
Carlisle if they think he has one chance in
100 900 to get the nomination. They will
take that one chance and do all
in their power to win success"
Mr.. Caruth said, however, that as he under
stood it there was no certainty yet as to what
As it is apparent that Carlisles nomination
cannot be regarded as even remotely
probable if his name is presented and
he is voted for on the first ballot it will
be for the purpose Of preventing Cleveland
nomination. To this it is not believed Senator
for on the first ballot the Kentucky delegation
will divide up and Cleveland is conceded at
least twelve Of the twenty-six.
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF ILLINOIS.
The course of the Illinois delegation will have
the utmost significance to the Cleveland inter-
ests. The Cleveland men now claim that the
entire forty-eight votes of the state will go to
the e1-President, but there still appears to be
considerable doubt about this. II the
delegation divides, it is likely that all
but the Morrison men will 60 to
Cleveland. in accordance with the expressed
wish Of Senator Palmer. This will give Cleve-
land more than majority of the forty-eight
votes, but will leave him short of the 600 he
must have to be nominated even il he gets the
solid vote Of Indiana and Kentucky.
Thus it will be seen'that to figure out two
third majority for Cleveland on the first ballot
all the conditions will have to be more favor
able than seem at all probable.
IOWA MAY DROP BoIEs.
Another contingency may arise that would be
apt to give Cleveland all the votes he needs to
nominate on the first ballot. The Iowa people,
becoming convinced before balloting begins,
that Boies cannot hope to secure the first place,
may be willing to enter into
an arrangement with Cleveland's friends
whereby he will be given their votes in order to
insure the second place for Boies. Such an ar
rangement as this, it is thought here, would not
very strongly inclined toward Cleveland and at
heart never expected to secure Boies nomina-
ton.
THE FIRST BALLOT.
The following table, which has been carefully
prepared after consultation with members Of
Congress from the states whose delegations are
divided and doubtful, is believed to
give pretty accurate idea Of
what the strength Of the different candidates
will be on the first ballot, taking it for granted
that neither Gray, Palmer nor Carlisle will be
voted for. The probabilities as to their candi-
dacy have been explained above: