New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1892-04-09
THE SITTITION,

From the East comes light. Little Hhoda Is
large enough to deal the Free Traders a stun
ming blow Hope that "Cleveland and Iarllf
Reform will carry Eastern States is buried
under the Republican plurality of 2,019 IN
small State where the Democrats had plu-
rality of 4,419 in 1889.
In the light of recent events, Presidential
estimate of some value can be made. The
election under the new apportionlncnt gives
TO the South 159 electoral votes, to the last
~. and TO the West los. The total being
444. with 223 yet to elect, the south must re-
tain all its own votes and secure g. votes from
the North But if the south carries New-iork
with SO votes Ncw-Jerscy with 10, Connectl-
cut with G, and Indiana with -, or g North
ern votes in all, il will still be in the minority
if it loses even one State as small as West VIZ
ginia with votes or Florida with f.
These being the conditions of the problem,
what do recent events indicate? Tariff reform
does not prove Il charm to c0niure with in a
manufacturing State After the Democrats
had been so greatly aided in Rhode Island by
the addition Of 1900 new voters since lSSs
that they carried State and Congressional cleo
tons for three years, they yet find that Tree
wool and Mr.. Cleveland are poWcrlesS to avert
defeat. What can they hope from Connecticut,
where the last full vote gave Mr.. Cleveland
only 1876 plurality, or from Massachusetts,
where there has been nothing like full vote
since he was beaten by 1000? In these ana
other New England States no great addition
to the suffrage has reinforced the Democrats.
Connecticut can be claimed as doubtful. but the
chances are against the Democrats in any case
.,,I -. candidate while al hpr New Eng
land States can be claSsed as Republican.
Mr. Hills disgraceful behavior and the re-
cent town elections have made New York more
hopeful for the Republicans than 1t
was four years ago, when the last
full vote gave Mr.. Harrison 1873 plu-
ralty. Even NcW-Jerscy is in such state of
mind about recent partisan SwIndlcs ana the
coal monopoly that it might be won. Nor IN
view Of Republican victories and gains IN
Evansville. Columbus, Springfield, Ill., and
many other Western cities. can Indiana be
counted less hopeful for the Republicans than
il was four years ago, while in Ohio, Illinois.
Michigan and Wisconsin free silver will hurt
| more than il will help the Democrats, and free
wool will not help them Iowa is the only
| Western State this side of the Pacific Coast
which has given "A fuller vote since lsss or
| 1889 than before. There Prohibition turned
the State election of 1891 against the Rcpub-
licans by 1916 plurality for one candidate, and
it may therefore be rcckoned doubtful with
more apparent reason than Indiana. But in
! Kansas, Nebl-l Ska and Minnesota even the Al
| lance craze at its worst did not bring out n
| full vote, or prevent Republican success. Mon
tana is close but in all the Pacific states Re
| pubicans have gained in strength since 1sss.
If Connecticut. New York, New-Jcrsey, In
diana, Iowa and Montana be all claSScd as
| questionable. with their So electoral votes. II
! follows that the Democrats might elect if they
could carry ali these and prevent a loss Of more
than Is votes at the south. But the chance
| that all these Northern states can be carried
| by the Democrats seems decidedly smaller than
the chance that the Alliance will cost them
| more than - Southern votes. West Virginia
and Virginia alone have that number and a
! third ticket would almost certainly draw from
the Democrats several times the one vote in
one hundred in Virginia, or the one vote in
twenty in West Virginia, which would turn tn,
scale against that party. Indeed, there APP
pears more probability Of North Carolina Civ
| ing Republican plurality by aid of the Al
| IElif' iHdE vi lVNd EiNlHE 81 D'lHbA IhiI' Ilu
ralty by aid of the same third party These
three Southern States, with 20 electoral votes
would suffice to defeat the Democrats even il
they could get the 80 electoral votes mentioned
FROM the North.
But there is one other thing to be observed
The same Democratic party is not going 10 b,
able this year TO carry NcwYorl and Connccti
cut, with Il candidate against free silver, anc
Indiana, Iowa and Montana with IA candidate
for free silver. One road or the other must b,
chosen: both cannot be. If Mr. Cleveland
could carry Connecticut and Ncw-York he cOulC
not carry Western State If a candidat,
| could be found who would delight the more
money fanatics enough 10 carry Iowa and Mon
tana that candidate would break his neck il
| NcW-York and Connecticut. Riding either %
the two horses is permissible. This year NJ
man can ride them both to his own. comfort.