New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1892-01-20
U'HEA T
ENORMOUS EXPORTS, BUr STILL GREATER sO'
PLUS LEFT.

ENORMOUS EXPORTS, BCl fIlLi- VIM
PLUS LEFT
To the Editor Of he TrlOuh
Sir: This country has already eAPor'" "a
months about 1870, 100000 bushels oil Whe"'' "o ''
incIndcd AGAINST exports of only lO6,OOo,Voo
bushels during the previous tNclNe non''i' ~ Ia
s,i,e of a foreign demand as large as any one hlu
ernected wheat at Ncw-York has dropped to -
per hu.bcl for No , Red Winter since January J.
and does not show disposition 10 rise lar aooNc
that feure 4 more complete disappointment ~
tLe calculations Of spectators could not WV" ~
imagined Many of the shewdest ana s'ioN-'
Of them reckoned confidently upon securing -"
tire control of the worlds markets TINS year, anu
holding the price where they pleased some VI
the. hoye failed: some of them have paid Tor
lessons in the dearest of all schools-that 81 eA-
pcricnce.
The worst bunder Of the spectators 'hIs year
was partly due to the worst failure 'hs All
cultural Department has made III many years III
estimating the yield of wheat. Inc department
reported TIRE acreage, compared with the hafN'so III
1890, as 1ll.5 for winter ana lo"'4 LOT sPrl"-
wheat which gave total of 39,2l9,245 acres,
of which 26,22s, 916 Were OF winter wheat bu'
il now reports an acreage Of 1919 6,s07, not very
far differing il is true but all commercial chtl-
mates for six months have necessarily been based
on the earlier reports The Department reported
in July the condition Of winter wheat rs 96.2 ana
of spring wheat as Gal, and the statlsticlan oil
the Produce Exchange, applying these figures To
the ten years average yield, reckoncd the yleld
of winter wheat 1870 and Of spring wheat IL
1876 bushels per acre, making ABOUT 3sl,@oo,VVo
bushels If the Department had desired 10 aN"u
misundersta nding OF its reports, one wouid sup
pose il might more wisely have stated the Flelu
expected in bushels, instead of percentages, pu'
the official report if it Justified any opinion, GER
tainly warranted an estimate substantially In ac-
cord with that of the Produce Exchange. When
il is considered that the Department has now added
10,000,000 bushels 10 the expected ylcld, raising
the average per acre TO 1882 it will hardly seem
strange if many distrust The reports now sent ana
question whether even the latest figures adequately
represent the enormous crop of 1891.
TO this great crop of Gil $50, 900 bushels there
must be added about Is 100000 bushels brought
over from previous years in excess Of the minimum
stock making the supply at least G29,9 A,'2l
bushels From this there must be taken for
food, at the average for the past nine years II
the population is not greater than the census has
reported about 3O2 900 900 bushels, and for seed.
if there should be no increase in acreage, about
SO. 600 600 bushels. With little increase III
acreage sown the quantity required at home would
he about 36O,OOO,O0O bushels, and the surplus
available for export 27O,0OO,OOO bushels.
Thus far domestic and foreign exports less IN
ports of wheat and -four for five months OF the
crop year were equal to 103,43G,lO7 bushels of
wheat agai, st 81 j01, ass during tie same month,
of the previous wear. The advance sheets for
November ana December show exports of wheat
and -four equivalent 70 22,50O,OOO bushels wheat.
making the aggregate exports thus far about rs
OsO. 900 bushels The final reports for four
months exceeded the preliminary reports by more
than 5000, 900 bushels, and 1t is not unlikely that
the full report for December Will raise tile agep-
gate 10 nearly l30,O0O,V0O bushels. But even
then there would be lett for export January !, not
less than l40,O00,O0O bushels, and while prices
now favor a large movement, the fact that corn
has begun 20 90 abroad largely should not be
overlooked. IL half of January the quantity OF
wheat exported from both coasts has been about
$500 900 bushels against 22,OOO,OOO bushels III
the month of December. The corn movement Tor
several weeks has exceeded the exports Of wheat
and -four from Atlantic ports.
1t can hardly be considered probable that the
exports for the rest of the crop year Will eN-
coed those of the first half. In the light Of the
past events, it seems more likely that the country
will carry over at the end Of the crop year u
quantity OF wheat ranging from 3O,O0O,o0O -
30 600, 600 bushels III excess Of the minimum
stock. Hence speculations based upon supposed
scarcity of supplies this year are exposed 10 un-
usual risks. W. NJ. u
New FORK, Jan. 10, 1892.