The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1892-05-24
THE rAcrs OF THE CASE.
How the Deneeratse National Cenvsntios
VIII Stand.

VIII Stand.
To THE EDITOR OF THE suy-Sir. The 20
litcal arithmetic man Is pretty nearly due
with his tables Of Presidential probabilities
his musings aud surmises. and his confusing
conjectures. Before he spreads himself un
duly over the land and In tho columns OF tn,
newspapers would like to give The Sun tn,
observations OF dsinterested observer
though not n disinterested Democrat, on The
subject OF the Democratic National Conven
ton in Chicago. now less than month distant
1t is the rule OF both political parties to com.
mend. by resolution. tho last Administration
Of its own political friends. Each party is. tc
considerable extent. judged In Presiden
tial contest ~ its performances or omissions
when last In Office. and to disavow the actions
OF n prior Administration would be to admit
defeat IN advance. Accordingly. even in the
case of Hayes. an utterly discreditod porson.
age In the politics OF tho country, the Republi.
can Conventions almost without execution
approved OF his Administration In 1880. Again
in 1884 tho samo compliment was paid to
President Arthur. though tho nomination OF
tho former was known tn be impossible, and
the nomination OF tho latter was not seriously
thought OF outside ofthe Federal ofliccholders
30 Cleveland. the last Democratic President In
ohico. is commended In resolutions every.
known. That tho last Democratic Admins
tratlon-supposcd in such localities MS North
Dakota, Oklahoma. and Vermont to DO an
earnest OF the next-should be- In n formal
manner approved Is not strange. But lot no
one iall into tho error OF supposing that
such perfunctory endorsement means. in the
mind OF anybody capable OF ordinary comprc.
hcnsion. that q repetition OF the Cleveland Adj
ministrntion is invited b. Democrats any moro
thnn repetition Of tho Hayes Administration
was desired. or would havo been agreed to. by
Republicans in 1880.
There will DO 800 delegates to the National
Democratic Convention. 1893 from States and .
from Territories. In order to nominate. tho
votes OF GOO delegates will be required. n clear
twothird vote. Here is how the situation now
presents itsclf. regarding the delegates al
ready elected. or yet to DO elected. from the
several States:
,Alabamn ma; choice. Cleveland II. n11: second
Arkasns First choice. Cleveland 10: second choice
caforn,n-First choice. Cleveland H. IIil a. reeond
Goloralo-Fis, choice. Hi 8; second choice HILL g.
Connecticut First choice Cleveland 0. Hill 3: sec.
onh enoice. ii!l .. cleveland
German 6. ' ''''' 'A'''
riorida-tirst choice I'LL T. German 4: second choice
Gso.s,a e. chpcc Cleveland 49, Iln IS; second
IdanS.firs, choice. I'LL o; second choice. Hin 0.
innois-Frst choice. Palmer 49, second choice scat.
ter.hg. cray. I'm. Roies.
!nliana.t,rst choice. Gray 80: second cnoce Gray
shoSe soss 2 second choice Palmer
PROBABLY ~ EG,s, rsms,nsT
'IHfl' s' second choice
ioasianaEtIs. sh%,se. lin s. Cleveland 8: second
Maine-First choice. Cleveland IL: second choice,
,Maryland-First choice German Is; second choice,
Mienisan-Frs. choice, Cleveland %: second choice.
e,",a-Firs. choice. Cleveland 10: second
Mssiss.ppiT, choice. Hill is; second choice. the
Mi,.ou5i.Fi,.t choice, Cleveland "a: second choice.
Montana-first choice, Hill 8: second choice. Hill a.
eGsss fans1 fhp:e Cleveland Hin second
Neyada,Frst CHOICE. Hill o; second choice. Hill
New liam pshrc-First choice. Cleveland s: second
New Jersey-F'rst cho ,ce, Mcpherson 10. Cleveland
Il? shFse eRaSs @ Hill
70. Decisive Stnte.
ss1h m ssSs' '' H. Cleveland III
North Dakotanfirst choice Cleveland 9: second
i, oho-Frst choice. Campbell 49, second choice. Hill
,oreEon-First choice Cleveland 3: second choice
Pennsylvanta-rirs. choice. Cleveland ~: second
ehoice-f cast unit. Pattison o.: il not scatter
Rhode ,I Is,.ndIfr.t sn%s. Cleveland 8: second
rIlll IL.
south Dakota.Fir,. choice. Cleveland T. Hill 4: Sec
Tennessee-Fi!st choics. Carlisle II. Cleveland IL:
Texas1rirs. choice, Cleveland 20. Hill 10: second
vsFmantFirss coee cleveland g. second choice.
under consideration. The Democrats Of Vermont have
mating convention They take passive part In tho
rirgin!n-rir choice, Cleveland II. Hill IL: second
choice. Nh II. Carlisle O. nm,
,,Ws.hington-first choice Hill .: second choice
IVES, v,rsinianrirs choice German 9. Cleveland 8:
W!seonsnsF,.t choice Cleveland a. second choice.
Wyolning-First choice. Cleveland g; second choice.
The NEUTRALITY-SUSPICIOUS. New Meyico. Alaska. Okla.
homa Utah and District OF Colnno ola have together
g. second S" p. eiO Of osa
Tor Hill Alaska 5oT Cleveland and tho others divided
between Boies, Palmer. and Gray.
Tho conclusion draw from an examination
Of this list is as follows:
!. That no candidate will have votes enough
IN the first ballot to be nominated.
.. That after the complimentary vote has
been cast Cleveland's support will fall of and
Hills will continue and increase.
3. That in no State from which he gets any
7otes on the first, will Cleveland be as strong
after as on tho first ballot.
4. That in no State will Hill be weaker after
han on tho first ballot.
5. That no candidate can gain the requisite
majority who cannot secure tho support Of
New York.
q. That fully 40 per cent. OF the delegates
'3 per cent would be sufficient for tho pur-
,oso-are unalterably and Internationally op-
,osed to Cleveland as n candidate.
Z. That Hills support Is definite. compact.
Ind trustworthy. whereas Cleveland's support
s largely sentimental and elusive. After the
lrst ballot In q Democratic Convention. the
influence OF delegations from tho Republi can
states steadily diminishes, and from doubtful
states steadily increases. In q contest the
after control.
& That no successful combination for the
hoice OF Vice-President is possible by the
ARTISANS OF "A Presidential candidate unable
o secure the vote OF his own State.
O. That all tho prospective Vice. Presid entail
y 49, kl ! l. L