St. Paul daily globe., 1892-04-10
ELECTION FIGURES.

In it's discussion of "Topics of the
Times" the April Century has an ex-
animation Of the electoral table that has
an interest for practical politicians.
Various combinations are had Of the
votes of the states which are suggestive
but not conclusive. The electoral COL
lege comprises 444 votes, of which 223
must be had to elect. The problem with
the parties, then, is to add to the states
classed as sure for either party enough
of the fluctuating to reach the 223. The
vote has been enlarged by 43 since 1888
by the apportionment and admission Of
new states. The latter have 20
votes, all of which are conceded
to the Republicans except the three
from Montana. The Republicans are
also given 16 out of the % increase
from the apportionment. They gain in
the entire addition SO to 10 for the Dem
oerats, net gain Of %. On the basis
of old figures, that makes the eombina
tions i'll their favor somewhat easier.
On the basis of the elections since 1888,
the Century table gives the Republicans
1S6 and the Democrats 259 electoral
votes. In this calculation MaSSachu-
sets, Iowa and New York are placed
with the Democrats, because they have
carried them at the two latest elections.
Indiana gave 90 900 at the election in 1890,
and is also put on the Democratic side.
Michigan is divided, four for the Demo-
Gratis and ten for the Republicans. This
is less by one, at least, than the Demo
Gratis will quite surely obtain, as they
will have one of the two for the state at
large. This compilation is not, how
ever, conceded by the magazine cal
culator 10 be an index to the probable
presidential result. In getting down to
the basis of sure states he reduces the
Democratic column to the Southern
states, New Jersey and four from Mich
igan, 173 in all, and just fifty short of
the indispensable 223. The Republic
ans are given all the other states ex-
cept Massachusetts, Iowa. Connect
cut, New York and Indiana, with
1856 votes. The combinations then
suggested for the Republicans are
the 1S6 sure votes, and New York and
Connecticut with 42, making 228. A
second table adds to the 1856 Massachu-
sets, Indiana and Iowa, with 43 votes,
making 229. Then to the same states
New York and Iowa, with 40 votes,
would give 2S5. New York alone added
to the 1856 makes just 222, or tie, with
no election. In all the combinations
Montana is given to the Republicans.
with 10 votes from Michigan. The COM
iIati cir
volve much less strain upon the proba-
bilities than the Republican ones. AS
mentioned. the sure Democra tic
vote comprises the 159 from the
South, 10 from New Jersey and
from Michigan, 175 in all.
Adding to these New York and either
Indiana or Massachusetts,, and the total
is 224. Another table adds to the 175
New York. Iowa and Connecticut,
making 22S. Or five more than major
ity. A combination giving New York
to the Republicans swells the 173 with
Massachusetts,, Indiana, Iowa and Con-
neeticHt, and makes 222 with no choice.
This would meet the needs of the Dem
ocrats, as it would throw the election
lHlO 1llC dlIu |
cut are a pretty fair reliance i'll such
case, bat the late voting in Rhode |
Island is not very encouraging for its
close neighbor that has always
been Republican bulwark. Iowa
is extremely hopeful, but it is
not quite a reliance as yet. The lesson
drawn by the Century from the review
is that New York cannot be left out of
the Democratic table without making
the task for the party arithmetic man
exceedingly difficult. and that the four
votes the Democrats count on In Mich- |
gan may decide the election. This is an
Eastern view, and does not afford sat
isfactory analysis of the Western stua-
ton; but it may be conceded that New
York is very important to the Demo-
rats, and, if they regard success as
high consideration, they will not allow
the party to become the victim of the
internecine feuds in that state.