The Anderson intelligencer. [volume] (Anderson Court House, S.C.) 1860-1914, 1892-10-05
a short Crop Means Better Prices.

Thomas Barrett, Jr., President Langley
Manufacturing Company, Augusta, GA
Dear Sir: In a circular note 1 have
already thanked you for your courtesy in
sending me statement Of the cotton
taken BY. your mill during the past sea-
son. A pressure of work must be my
apology for not sooner replying to your
esteemed note of the 26th ult., in which
you say you would be pleased to have
my opinion as to the future price Of
cotton. Upon this subject my opinion is
of very little value. The only worth
which it possesses is the fact that it will
be entirely disinterested as have no
interest whatever in the market. think
that the growing crop will be very mod
crate.
Ofcourse there are so many factors be-
tween now and the end Of the picking
season to affect the final result that any
estimate Of the crop now would be merely
q matter Of conjecture. We do know,
however, that the acreage has been largely
able acreage has actually been abandoned
since then on account Of the heavy and
continued rains which caused the fields
to get badly in grass. We know besides
this that there has been large reduction
in the quantity of fertilizers used and
that the supply of mules bought by the
South for use in oultivating this crop has
been less than for good many seasons.
The weather conditions so far have been
quito unfavorable except in Texas anG
Arkansas, and even in those States the
crop is very backward. It is quite evil
dent to me that the crop Of the country is
fully fifteen days later than last year,
and, therefore, should early general kill
ing frosts occur, it may be and probably
will be very small crop.
Upon the basis Of the agricultural bu"
reau June estimate ofacreage and its Sep
tember estimate of condition the yield
indicated is only about $500, 900 bales.
The condition OF the crop, as reported by
the bureau on September ], was lower
than for any year since 1855. 1t may
not be out Of place to remind you that Ine
crop Of 1888 -84 was ] ,2a7, 600 Bales smaller
than the crop of 1928. TO the 6,5OD,0o0
bales indicated according to the burea1'g
estimate must be added the amount OF Ole
cotton left in the interior at the close OF
the season of 1922. The highest esti-
mate I have seen Of this old cotton is
25O. 900 bales. I regard this as very
extreme estimate. Supposing all Of the
old cotton will be marketed this season,
and I have no doubt it will be, this would
make the commercial crop, according to
the bqresp'S indication, about 6,750,00O
bales.
I do not wish you to regard this as my
estimate Of the crop. I am not making an
estimate, but am merely pointing out
to you what would be the result il tho
bureaus estimate should prove to be cor
rect; and, in this connection, 1t may be
proper to say that the bureaus estimates
are generally too low. At all events, it
does not seem to me at all likely that she
commercial crop Of this year will be suf-
ficient for the requirements OF the spin
ners Of Europe and America, tor Amerl-
can cotton. The trade at the North, and
also the tradein Europe, are quite unW1u-
ing, as rule, to believe that there has
they believe that the crop condition Is as
unfavorable as the agricultural bureaus
reports would indicate. Ny own private
advices are quite in line with the reports
Of the bureau as to the unfav vorablo con-
dition of the crop, and think the reduc-
ton In acreage Is almost a3 large as the
bureaus estimate.
Whether the crop should turn out to bs
large or small, o large portion Of it will
be marketed between now and January
/, to pay for advances and to purchase
needed supplies. II prices rule low, a
larger quantity Of cotton will be required
to pay a given amount Of advanoen.
Should the movement be large, tho peo-
pie here and in Europe will be confirmed
In their present opinion, that there has
not been much reduction in acreage, and
that the crop will likely be 3 full ono.
In that condition of things it will be very
difficult to put up prices upon perma-
nently higher level than at present. When
the movement falls off to such an extent
as to cause the trade to believe the crop q
short one T think we may then expect
very material advance upon present
prices. I do not think that tlsre is
shadow Of doubt about the fact that the
present prices of cotton are much lower
than the cost Of production except to
those planters who have the best faoili-
ties for producing it. When an article Of
such universal use as cotton La pressed
below the cost of production, and coinci-
dent with that fact there should como the
faot of short supply, there must Of
necessity be an advance, for everybody
will then realize that the article is cheap.
Trusting you will pardon the length OF
this communication, I am yours very
truly, ALFRED 3. SHEPPERsoG.