Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1892-10-18

IL becomes more clear the political cam
psign progresses that the result Of the prssi-
DENTAL contest will almost surely be deter
mined by the vote Of New York Eager repub-
leans hope to barely win without its electoral
vote. but II is probable that the same influences
which may carry 1t against them will operate
TO carry the other doubtful states for Mr.
Cleveland also. On the other hand, 1t il undis-
puted that the loss of New York viii be fatal to
the democrats
IL the states are counted - they voted In
ISIS Assuming the new ones TO be republican,
the hrst point that becomes apparent IL that
Mr.. Cleveland must necessarily under the nav
spportioumsnt, In addition to the states be car
rfed before, regain both New York and Indiana
to succeed; New York alone will not suffice. II
ne Carries four or ave Of the Michi-
gan elsctors, generally conceded to him
bv the republicans under the new law
Tor choosing electors In that state,
he can then dispenss with either West Virginia
OF Connecticut, but not both Of them And
under combination Of the figures can he be
elected without New York and Indiana; the loss
Of Indiana alone will defeat him. So would the
loss Of both Connecticut and West Virginia
without compromising western gains. The loss
Of nine votes in any quarter win be fatal to
democratic hopes a. win be quickly perceived
by glance at the following suooinct statement
Electoral votes
Democratic states carried In 1883.
Add New York. 36
Add Indiana. 10
Add part Of Michigan. ..-.....-......-.
IOtA Zol
Necessary 70 q choice. ..--.--.-.--22s
THE RrPUBLIcKs SIDE OF THE SITUATION.
This is the democratic situation in = nutshell,
stated without prejudice. 1t also shows the
republican strength a. well weakness. but to
make everything perfectly clear before entering
upon the consideration Of the vote Of New
York it may be well to state the republican
side Of the situation. If Gen Harrison carries
all the states he did in 1888 and the new states
under the new spportionnent his electoral vote
viii stand as follows:
Electoral vote
Rep states carried in 1893. .... 249
Add the six new states. ....-..-.. 20
2ss
Deduct from Michigan. s
Leaving . total of-.2 64
Necessary to q choice ..... 223
He could lose New York and still have the
necessary majority. Hence it is held by his
friends that prima facie the chances largely
favor the President in bis second contest with
an antagonist he has already once defeated
Under the circumstances. then, it is both i'm
portant and interesting to have the relative
situations In the four doubtful states plainly set
out, and especially IL 1t worth the while of
every partisan, be he democrat or republican,
to know how the pivotal state Of New York has
voted In past elections and by what msjorities,
and why it 10 always debatable ground in presi- |
dental years, no matter what are the claims Of
enthusiastic partisans or what has been the re-
suit Of preceding oh-yea elections
THE FoRMHs VOTE OF THE DOUBTFUL Stairs.
The following Is the vote Of the four doubtful
states in 1888:
Harrison. Cleveland Plurality.
New York CSC, 1888 6S5, 965 l4,s73 Rep.
Connecticut. 7A,5s4 1920 3ss Dem.
West Virginia. 7s,l1l 1851 SOC Dem.
Both sides now claim all four OF these doubt
full states vet, paradoxical a. 1t may seem, both
consider all four still doubtful. And that is
why they are 90.
TIE ALL-IMPoRrANF STATE OF NEW yoRK.
The empire state il divided both geographic
cally and politically into two wen-defned SEC
tions. Geographically the democratic section
powerful in influence - it is-includes only the
1--WE counties Of New York, Kings, Queens, Rich
mond and Suffolk all below the Harlem river.
The republican section Is the entire state
"above Harlem" To Offset the great republi-
can majorities Of the agricultural districts
'down to Harlem" their opponents have to
meet them at the river with the huge urban
democratic vote Of New York city and Brooklyn
and their suburbs.
The generality Of people have but a vague
knowledge Of what the average republican and
democratic majorities above" and below"
Harlem are. Hence the following table, show
ing side by side the pluralities in every presi-
Dental election since 1855, a. well rs the last
two state elections, will perhaps prove both in
structive to politicians Of all parties who are
Just now seeking Light on 'how New York 10
going" November 8.