The Roanoke times. [volume] (Roanoke, Va.) 1890-1895, 1892-10-13
AT HEADQUARTERS.
WALTER WELLMAN CLEANS SOME
FACTS ABOUT THE CAMPAIGN.
He Figures 1t Out So Scientifically That
You Cannot Guess who VIII 30 Elected.
His Analysis Is Intcreresting, but We
Will Sot Bet It.
Especial Correspondence

Especial Corrcspondence.l
New YORK, Oct. Who will be
elected president? That is the question
of questions. It's only month till the
answer will DO given by the people them
selves But we Americans do not like
to wait till Il thing is settled. We want
to take both time ana events by the fore
lock, shake them savage1y and compel
them to yield to our eager curiosity
before they arc ready to do so.
In this letter am not going to proph-
esy. Sad experience has taught me
the futility of prophecy i'll politics. You
have heard of the Virginia German who
was induced to put up all his savings to
make ''sure thing" of his candidacy
for some petty Office, and of his eiacula-
ton when the votes were counted and
the other fellow had an overwhelming
majority. ''Polidicks vos one son of a
gum said he, and he was right. One
of the best pieces of advice ever had
and have had n great deal-was from
al old newspaper friend, who said.
"Don't prophesy; write facts"
So don't wish to become prophetic
as to the presidential election. do wish
to give you such facts or supposed facts
as l have been able to catch up with at
the headquarters of the two national
committees.
Ihave been around these headquarters,
off and on, for six weeks, meeting man
ayers. their lieutenants and distinguished
visitors from all parts of the country
have lived in political atmosphere
in two political atmospheres-tillI think
don't know anything ut all about it.
EavinG progressed far enough to con-
Guide thar personally I know nothing.
there Is Il .r"at probability of my being
OF some service 10 tho reader, who would
like to have answer to the query with
which begin this letter, for in my own
ignorance l shall of necessity fall back
upon the Information furnished by men
whose business it is to know.
Let me say at the outset that it is pre-
cious little l care who wins in Novem-
Der. You may be Il Republican. dear
reader, or Democrat am neither.
You may be Populist, or Prohibi.
zionist, or something else. amt. I'm
nothing-nothing buta newspaper writer,
an observer, a watcher and listener. a
student of men and events. l am not
even Mugwump, nor an independent.
l don't vote-live in Washington and
can't, and wouldn't if l lived anywhere
else and could. Why? No matter. The
psint is that l am unparalleled, fancy
free and truthful according 10 my lights.
So if l figure things out the way You
don't want them figured out, keep Your
temper.
My aim is to give you the essence of
all the information which have been
able to gather among the politicians,
and l must be permitted to do SO in my
own way, without fear of giving offense
or hope of winning favor. If you don't
relish frankness about the political stu
alton, you will do we'll to drop this let
ter right here.
1t is an exceedingly complex situation
which we now have in the political
world. The result of the presidential
election hangs upon dozen states-not
upon two or three. AS the manager,
say, "There is fighting all along the
line" You will not be able to tell who
has been elected when you hear from
New York and Indiana. You will have
to wait until the back counties in West
Virginia, Alabama, Wisconsin, Illinois.
reported.
1t is situation full of doubt and
pregnant of surprises. The result NAV
indeed be such as to elect one or the
other candidate by an overwhelming
majority in the electoral college. but
the smartest men i'll both camps doubt
this and look for close and driving
finish. In fact the new elements Of
doubt to a certain extent balance one
another, and tho best analysis of the
field have yet seen brings ont three
probabilities in the following order:
First-If Cleveland carries New York
he will almost certainly win.
Second-If Harrison carries New York
he probably will win.
Third-Third party success in some
western and southern states will throw
the election into the house of represent
atives
This gives Cleveland the best of it on
probabilities, you say. Yes, it does 1t
gives him two chances to Harrisons one.
He has an even chance with Harrison in
the electoral college, and he has chance
which Harrison hasn't-to be elected by
the house of representatives.
Sitting down with paper and pencil,
using the most trustworthy information
and the best judgment to be had, one
can make detailed table of probabilities
as follows:
SURE FOR CLEVELAND.
Votes. Votes
Arkansas ........... Mississippi ........
Delaware. Missouri . II
FLORIDA. ............. New Jersey. lC