The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1892-12-11
THIS YEAR'SCOTTON CROP
SHEPPERsON ESTIMATES IT AT
NOT OVER o,5oo,ooo BALES.

| so ter SOO,OOO Bales Less 1nen Last
Year.
New YORK, Dec. 10.-The following re-
view Of the cotton situation Ia made by
Alfred B. Shepperson, editor Of the Cotton
| Factor, and an acknowledged authority on
matters pertaining to cotton; "The present
cotton crop was grown upon acreage mate
rally less than the previous crop, and upon
soil exhausted by the enormous yields of
two successive years. The agricultural de-
partmenU, it is true, estimated the reduc-
ton on the acreage as 1616 per cent, and
official and reliable private advices convince
me that the departments estimate is sub
stantially correct.
"Tae reduction in the use Of fertilizers
was S5 to 40 Per cent.
"The weather conditions have been favor,
able for some time.
"The land was we'll prepared for plant
ing.
"Until the growth of the plant was ended
by killing frosts there has been no element
of the situation upon which to base a reason
able expectation of even IA moderate crop
as compared with those of the past few
years The crop was backward, and on
Oct. 10 was generally fifteen to fifty days
| later than last year. Killing frosts were
quite general from Oct. 26. aud caused loss
! OF 300 900 bales or more. In the Memphis
district alone il has been stated that $50, 900
bales were destroyed by the frosts.
"Advices from official and Trustworthy
private sources leave no room for doubt
that the yield per acre is very much less
than last season.
| UHFAvoRABLE REPORTS.
"The most unfavorable accou nts come
from merchants who are in closest touch
with the planters. Many letters have re-
Gently been received by me from prominent
planters throughout the south, and they
fully confirm the reports Of reduced yield
which come from other sources. In many
sections the crop is turning out to be much
less than was expected a month or SO ago.
As the gathering OF the crop progresses and
approaches completion its shortage becomes
more apparent Up Co this time last year the
tendency of merchants and planters was to
underestimate the crop. This year the
general tendency has been exactly In the
other direction, and there has been an in
creasing disposition 20 reduce estimates.
Our friend, Henry Neill of New Or
leans, who can make more guesses
at the size of one crop than any one
know of, issued an estimate on Nov. 2 of
old cotton remaining in the
interior from the previous crop.
This would make his estimate represent a
| commercial crop of about 1900, 600 baleE.
We had hardly digested this estimate when
he issued another one reducing his estimate
to $500, 900 bales. This, understand, also
excludes the old cotton and would therefore
be equivalent 20 an estimate by him of q
commercial crop OF about 9, 100000 bales.
sHEPPRRsoN's ESTIMATE.
"a great deal Of cotton grown in previous
years was marketed with the crop of 1891
| '92, aud do not think the actual yield of
that season was over s. 600 baleg. Wish
| ing 10 be very conservative, will assume
the yield per acre TO average 10 per
cent less than last season upon an acreage
OF 16M per cent. loss than last year. This
would make the yield this seeson 1881 ,00O
bales, for the old cotton left in the in
terror from last season and which
| will undoubtedly be marketed this season,
aud 10 will make the commercial crop of
this season about 6,500,000 bales. This
would be 2,518, 900 bales less than the crop
Of last season. From present indications
would regard 9, 5000 as the maximum OF
, the crop and 1t may fall considerably short
) OF this.
i, THIS YEARS AVERAGE.
"The present average Of this year ia about
what It was in 18S4-'85, and the CONNER
! cial crop Of that season was 8 zoe, 900 bales.
Some persons think the acreage now Is
equal to that of 1S85-'S6, or about 900 900
, acres more than in 1S84-'S5. The crop
: of lSS5L86 was 6,575,oOO bales. The crop
condition on Oct. l as reported by the de-
partment of agriculture was II points lower
than at the same time in 1884, and about Al
! points lower than in 1885. Sept. the cot
ton Of this crop which has come into sight
is ,460 900 bales less than during the same
| time last year. From now to the end OF
the season the movement can very easily tie
. over million bales less than during lost
season, go that the statistical position ia
quite in line with a crop of 6,50O,000 bales
/ | or less.
THE PRICE.
. ''For two seasons prices have ruled lower
? | than most men have ever seen. They were
. | caused by the pressure or the enormous
stocks in the world resulting from our two
immense crops of lS90'9l and 1S9lJ92. On
| Sept. middling upland cotton was Wort sh
( | here IN cents On Sept. "a 10 advanced tC
2 75H cents and continued TO advance until Il
: cents was reached Nov. 25. There has since
g been q recession Of cent. This great ad.
@ vance OF nearly cents was due largely &
/ purchases of futures by merchants and capi'
talists as q fair speculation. They saw
that the price Of the great staple was lower
than for a generation and probably far be-
low the cost of production. They realized
i that the growing crop would be a shorI
one, for the very air was full Of such indi-
cotton followed the advance in futures
= Spinners have contributed very little to thu
{ advance. Our mills held very large stocks
= OF cotton, having bought during
each of the two previous seasons
considerably more aootton than theJ
: consumed. They were generally, therefore
: In condition 10 keep out of an advancing
!, market and did 50. To date they havG
1 taken from the crop $50. 900 bales less than
. for the corresponding time last season."
Neither have European spinners helped men
! in creating the advance.
SPECULATION ANTICIPATES RESULTS.
i Speculation always anticipates results
: Tho conditions affecting the values Of
staples are discounted long In advance
Several months ago said In a letter which
got into print that the crop would be a short
, one. and when the public reached the CON-
: cluslon that it might NOS exceed S,OO0,-
4 900 bales they would not wait
: : for the last bale TO be counted
a but would put prices up at once.
Exactly this thing has happened. American
spinners and European spinners will have Il
buy before long and purchases would be {
great support to the market. Prices hav'
heretofore been unduly depressed by large
o stocks OF cotton iD all the cotton oenters, bu
J, the small crop coming in will have the effec
| to raakora atOcke 70 their usual urOnorfiona