The Anderson intelligencer. [volume] (Anderson Court House, S.C.) 1860-1914, 1892-02-04
Next Seasons Cotton Crop.

to an extraordinary degree. People seem
to have thought that cotton was not g
speculative product. So little had been
heard in regard to wide Quotations in cot
ton, and the traditions in connection
with cotton dealing had generally been
so favorable to the fortunes of these
engaged in that line of business that the
recent decline in price, with the an
nouncement that cotton had touched it's
lowest point for forty years, somewhat
startled people who are not as rule in
terested in matters of pure speculation.
Some of these inquiries reached the Cotton
Exchange, and old dealers were not lit.
tie amused at what they termed the pre-.
vailing public ignorance upon this sub
ject.
"People sem to think that it is an easy
matter to calculate the cotton CROP" said
Superintendent Powers. "It seems to be
assumed that there ought to be statistics
of the crop which would be reliable for
the purpose of the market, and that those
| who engage in dealings in cotton ought
to have such sources of information as to
make it impossible for an error Of some.
thing like g million of bales to occur in
the calculations of those whose business
it is supposed to be to watch these mat>
ters closely. All the mistake that there
is in the public mind is due to ignorance
of the subject. It is simply impossible to
calculate upon the cotton crop. We
claim to keep more complete and more
accurate statistics than dealers in any
other kind of agricultural product. But
our statistics are based on facts after they
shall have been established. We never
try to calculate upon crop until it is
actually gathered and in the market.
"The man who can guess next years
crop within 100000 bales can make a
fortune within year. He can get all
kinds of bets at large odds against his
guess. think it may be safely said that
there is no product more variable than
the cotton product. It is 80 variable,
indeed, that it is common saying among
cotton men that the rule of averages does
not apply to cotton. During the last ten
years the crop has varied from 100000
to 100000 bales. Since cotton statis-
tics have been kept the extreme varia-
tion in the crop has run from 300 bales
to S,65O,OOO. The estimates for the last
year have varied from 100000 to $780,.
900 bales. Cotton had its recent decline
because a commercial agency that has
heretofore guessed closely on the crop
has put out sn estimate Of 10000 bales
for the year ending next September.
That estimate comes close to the outside
estimate by dealers, and it is so much in
excess of the average estimate of dealers
that the price was bound to tumble.
"The reason that the cotton crop is 80
variable is that it is likely to be affected
By factors that cannot be calculated upon
in advance and by great variety of
causes. Extraordinary weather has great
effect upon cotton, and it does not matter
whether that weather be dry or wet. 1t
sometimes happens that cotton can be
gathered all through the fall and up to
the time of planting in January. In
other years it is impossible to gather it
beyond the first week of September. We
We have known it to be entirely gath
cred in August, and We have known it to
be picked as late as February. A week
or two of bad weather may reduce the
crop by a million bales, while, on the
other hand, unexpected good weather
may revive q dropping crop and make
the product for the year much larger
than had been anticipated.
"Cotton dealers are disposed to dis
courage and discount any such utterances
as those made at the recent Convention
of the Farmers Alliance in Memphis.
1t ia impossible by the rule or by law to
regulate crop. Perhaps it may be good
advice to the farmers of the South to say
to them that they should diversity their
crops and give less attention to cotton
raising and more to the production OF
other things. 1t is one thing, however,
for a convention to resolve that farmers
ought to do something and quite another
for farmers to take that advice. Expe'
rience has shown that whenever conVen.
tions have tried to regulate matters Of
this kind, especially in the line of reatric'
ton, larger crops of the restricted pro-
ducts have usually resulted.
"Every farmer hopes that his neighbor
will take the advice of the Convention,
and will restrict his crop. He calculates
that if the majority of farmers shall take
this advice the crop will be smaller than
the demand of the market, and that
therefore it will be to his own advantage
to plant litt!e more than usual, in the
hope that he may reap an Individual
profit from the advanced price which he
anticipates. This is the course of rea'
soning through which almost every far
mer goes within the privacy of his own
dominion. Then he proceeds to plant a
little larger crop than ever before, and
when tie time Genes for picking it is
discovered that every farmer has rather
more of that crop to sell than he bad the
year before, instead of less, ard that the
market is flooded.
II do not believe that the advice given
the other day by the Convention of Mem.
phis will result in any exception to what
may be called the rule in such matters,
but on the contrary, that if it shall have
any effect whatever it will be to bring
into the market next year, weather and
other conditions permitting, more cotton
than has been raised this year" ."-Me,0
| YorE Tr,nes