The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1892-01-20
King ooTroN.s GREAT FAIL.
Perlls of Trying to Guess Y hat Sea
sons Crop u Ill BE.
From the Net0 York Times.

From the Ne,0 York Times.
The recent course Of the cotton market
has called public attention to that staple to
an extraordinary degree. People seem to
have thought that cotton was not a specu-
lative product So little had been heard in
regard TO wide fluctuations in cotton, and
the traditions in connection with cotton
dealing had generally been so favorable TO
the fortunes o. those engaged in that line Of
business, that the recent decline in price
with the announcement that cotton had
touched its lowest point for forty years
somewhat startled people who are not as
a rule interested in matters Of pure specu-
lation. Some OF these inquiries reached the
Cotton exchange, aud old dealers were not
little amused at what they termed the
prevailing public ignorance upon this sub
ject.
people seem TO think that it is an easy
matter to calculate the cotton CROP said
Supt Powers. at seems to be assumed
that there ought to be statistics Of the crop
which would be reliable for the purposes Of
the market, and that those who engage in
dealings in cotton ought to have such
sources Of information as TO make it impos-
sible for an error Of something like 100000
of bales to occur in the calculations If those
whose business 1T is supposed to be to watch
these matters closely. All the mistake that
that there is in the public mind is due to
ignorance Of the subject 1t Is simply i'm
possible 10 calculate upon the cotton crop.
We claim to keep more complete and more
accurate statistics than dealers IN any other
kind Of agricultural product. But our
statistics are based upon facts after they
shall have been established. We never try
to calculate upon a crop until it is actually
gathered and in the market.
1.-THE man who can guess next years crop
within 100000 bales can make fortune
within a year. He can get all kinds of bets
at large odds against his guess. / think il
may be safely said that there is no product
more variable than the cotton product. 1t
is 30 variable. indeed. that it is a common
saving among cotton men that the rule of
averages does not apply TO cotton. During
the last ten years the crop has varied from
100000 to 1000, 900 bales. Since cotton
statistics have been kept the extreme vsria-
ton IN the crop has run from 300 bales to
$3.50 900. The estimates for the last year
have varied from I, 300, 900 to g. 750, 900 bales
Cotton had its recent decline because a COM
mercial agency that has heretofore guessed
closely on the crop has put out an estimate
of S,490,000 bales Tor the year ending next
September. That estimate comes close to
the outside estimate by dealers, and it is so
much in excess OF the average estimate of
dealers that the price was bound to tumble.
THE reason that the cotton crop is 80 va
riable is that it is likely to be affected by
factors that cannot be calculated upon in
advance and by great variety of causes.
Extraordinary weather has great effect
| upon cotton, and 1t does not matter whether
that weather be dry or wet. 1t sometimes
happens that cotton can be gathered all
through the fall and up to the time Of
planting In January. In other years it is
impossible to gather it beyond the first week
of September We have known it to be en-
tirely gathered in August, and we have
known it to be picked as late as February.
A week or two of bad weather may reduce
the crop by 100000 bales, while, on the
other hand, unexpected good weather may
revive a dropping crop and make the
product for the year much larger than had
been anticipated.
Cotton dealers are disposed to discour-
age and discount any such utterances as
those made at the recent convention of the
farmers alliance in Memphis. 1t is impos-
sible by rule or by law to regulate a crop.
Perhaps it may be good advice TO the farm
ers of the south to say to them that they
should diversity their crops and give less
attention to cotton raising and more to the
production Of other thin9s. 1t is one thing
however, for a convention to resolve that
farmers ought to do something. and quite
| another for farmers to take that advice
| Experience has shown that whenever con.
ventions have tried to regulate matters OF
this kind especially in the line of restric-
ton, larger crops of the restricted products
have usually resulted.
Every farmer hopes that his neighbor
will take the advice of the convention and
will restrict his crop. He calculates that if
the ma ority of farmers shall take this ad-
vice the crop will be smaller than the de-
mand of the market, and that, therefore, it
will be to bis own advantage to plant little
more than usual, in the hope that he may
reap an individual profit from the advanced
price which he anticipates. This is the
course of reasoning through which almost
every farmer goes within the privacy of
his own dominion. Then he proceeds tc
plant little larger crop than ever before
and when the time comes for picking it is
discovered that every farmer has rather
more of that crop to sell than he had the
year before, instead of less, and that the
market is flooded.
81 do not believe that the advice given
the other day by the convention Of Memphis
will result in exception to what may be
called the rule In such matters, but, on the
contrary, that if it shall have any effect
whatever it will be to bring into the market
next year, weather and other conditions
permitting, more cotton than has been
raised this year."