Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1892-11-07

with which TO make IL jealous. The effect Of
these changed conditions are already manifest
and the result as means of bringing out q
fuli vote was demonstrated in the August state
election. when the poll of the state aggregated
24l 2sS an increase of &c, 766 over the presiden-
tial vote of 1888
rNPREcsDENTED INTEREST N THr CONTEST
Positive this gain lie il fails 20 represent
the real increase in the states voting strength
that tomorrow's election viii indicate. This
statement is confirmed by the fact that the re-
pubicans failed 10 vote q party in the
August election. In addition &c this. a iarge
contingent of pcpulists who refused 10 par
ticipate in the contest for state officers will be
represented in the vote of today. IL 90 this is
added the fact that the vote in a presidential
election generally exceeds that cast in state
or local contest the argument in support of
the prediction here made Is complete. The
fact is therefore repeated that Alabama's vote
tomorrow viii be the greatest ever known.
There Is no special Significance in this beyond
the demonstration of an unprecedented inter
est by all sides TO the conflict. Neither the
democrats nor the opposition claim any
special advantage in developing 10 lite fullest
capacity the party strength. A light or heavy
vote would probably be crowned with like re-
suit and the majority Of the winning side is
likely TO be proportioned 10 the extent of the en-
tire vote cast. This fact indicates a comparative
equality in the division of parties and foretells
a smaller majority than has beeu known in
Alabama in presidential year since ls72.
EXPECTED RESULTS.
That the democratic electoral ticket will win Is
probable, but not assured. A conservative esti-
mate OF majority in that event is from 5000 to
$4,000. Leaders of both sides claim the state
by more or less extrayagant majorities. Few
OF their estimates conform TO the situation as
it is viewed from unbiased standpoint The
uncertain element in the contest is the Stevens
republicans. III that faction is as insignificant
as the fusionists claim the predictions Of demo-
cratic defeat would seem well founded. On
the contrary If ii is as formidable as the regu-
lar democracy contend the result of tomor-
rows conflict is already known. As n matter
OF fact neither side has reliable means of FORM
ing an estimate of the magnitude OF the
Stevens bolt All that is definitely known Is
the fact that the stevens faction is the I'M
known quantity of this campaign Small or
great II appears a. factor representing the
balance of power in this remarkable contest
or at least this is an intelligent view of il as the
situation now appears. Ii would be little occa-
sion for surprise if the vote of the Stevens
republicans represented the democratic
plurality in the result SO nearly divided
as seems the strength of the democrats and
fusionists. The relations then of this factor to
the result in this state is easily apparent
CONGRESSIONAL PREDICTIONS
Whatever the result in the state at large may
be there can at least be some very reliable pre-
dictions made in reference TO candidates for
Congress-
In the first district Clarke. democrat. will
undoubtedly be elected over Mason. fusionist
This result is well assured by the conceded
majorites that Clarke will receive in Mobile
and Marengo couuties-the largest in the dis
trict. II is possible Mason will carry a major
ity of the counties. but these are mostly small
and will not aggregate sufficient majorities to
offset Clarke's vote in the two strongholds men
TONED. Both candidates have made sweeping
canvass of the district and nearly the full dis
trict vote will be polled.
The second district il less certain than the
first. II is a tri-cornered race here between
the democrats. fusionists and Stevensites. or
straight republicans. The result depends on
the strength developed by the republican can
didate in the counties of Wilcox and Mont
gomery If the usual republican or negro vote
Is polled for this candidate il will reduce the
fight to a close race between Raltzell. fusionist
and Shalllngs, democrat. IL this vote should
be divided between the fusion and republican
candidates the former will win by a safe plu-
rality. The alliance vote in this district is very
heavy and the bulk of il will be cast for the
fusion candidate. This renders that candi-
dates election highly probable. While the
district is extremely doubtful the chances are Z
in 10 In favor of democratic defeat
MR.. OATES WILL BE REFLECTED.
In the third district Oates. dem, will be re-
elected over Tate, fusionist Chances which
have all along favored Oates have been greatly
enhanced BY recent arrests of Bullock and Henry
counties democratic officials. Both of these
counties il the third district and the latter is
Oates native county and present home The
fusionists have made a strong fight but many
of them now concede that chances are against
them. Tate's own county (RussilD went against
kolb in August, did Bullock and Barbour,
the largest counties in the district. The COM
biued democratic majorities of these three
counties in August 4, 200 and the changes
effected since then have favored the democrats
For all of the other counties of the district, ex
cept Lee and Henry. the fusionists will probs-
bly, be successful. but the majorities will not
begin to cancel Oates big majorities in the
counties mentioned.
The fourth district may be designated as
doubtful, but the chances largely favor the cleo
ton of Robbins. democrat. over Longshore.
fusionist The latter will probably carry a
majority of the white counties. but the vote in
these is small when compared to that of the
counties of Dallas and Shelby. both of which il
is believed. will be carried by the democrats.
with the expected aid of the Stevens republi-
cans. Dallas is Robbins home county aud was
carried BY the democrats in August by 6, 100
majority. IL with the assistance of the Stevens
faction in this county the democrats retain
two-thirds of their August vote Robbins will
pull through. This is a potential If" how
ever.
PROBABLE FUSION VICTORY.
In the fifth district il is very generally
believed that Whatley. fusionist. Will defeat his
democratic opponent. Judge Cobb. 1t does not
now seem that the fusion majority will be as
large as two weeks ago indicated. as within that
time there has been partial reyulsion of senti-
ment in Cobb's favor. 1t does not appear to be
sufficient, however. TO materially alter the
chances of democratic defeat. which il generally
conceded. This district is the alliance strong
hold of the state as the result in the August
election shows. 1t is composed almost entirely
of white counties" with the exception Of
Lowndes, where the negro or republican vote
preponderates largely.
Bankhead. democrat, over Barbour fusionist.
Barbour will not be able to control the entire
fusion vote. On the other hand Baukhead will
not only get his full party support, but viii make
large inroads on the alliance vote Ordinarily
this district would go anti-democratic. as it is
composed largely Of farmers. who are in the
main alliance men, but Bankhead- himself
farmer-has pull" on this vote that even his
pronounced democratic procliyities will fail to
relax or surrender. His defeat is possible but
this result is numbered among the things UNI
looked for in the summary of Tuesdays events
ANOTHER DOUBTFUL DISTRICT.
The seventh is another district that NAV be
enumerated in the doubtful-very doubtful
column. Wood, fusionist. appears to have the