Bismarck weekly tribune. [volume] (Bismarck, Dakota [N.D.]) 1884-1943, 1892-02-05

estimate of the phenomenal wheat yield
of 1891 has been challenged by Colonel
Morton, who probably speaks from the
profundity of his own experience in
setting forth the advantages to accrue,
and profits to be realized from various
sections of North Dakota dirt listed for
sale with him. OF course time will de-
eide this question, but in the absence of
better authority why should not the es-
Inmates of the official statistician of the
state stand?
In order to throw a little more light
on this subject, Deputy Scott contributes
the following additional data from the
office of the state statistician:
1t is possible that the average yield is a
little too high, though not much; the c0un-
ties where it is too high being largely the
new counties with small acreage, and it is
quite likely that this is ~overbalanced by
too low estimates in some of the large
counties, as, g. g., Cass. A good many con-
sentative men, who can be named if neces-
home counties higher than the figures we
have given. Where a dozen of the leading
farmers of a county submit their estimates
during November and December (after
the threshing is largely done) and their
estimates are all twenty-five bushels or
more as the average of the ~cOunty-what
are you going, to do? Throw them away,
n make arbitrary guesses of your own,
that if not in accordance with facts are
at least in accordance with the wishes of
the wheat bulls? The estimates that have
been made are those of a number of the
best men in every county. To have re-
jected these and made arbitrary "guesses"
with no basis of TACT would have been an
example of statistical accuracy that would,
perhaps, have pleased men like Morton.
In averaging these estimates of FARMERS a
number were thrown out because con-
sideled unreasonably high. None, however,
were rejected because of being thought too
low. For example, two of Mclean
county's replies were rejected because
thought too high; yet that c%ounty's average
is twenty-eight and one-half bushels, and
that county was twenty-seven bushels.
If the average yield is slightly too high.
it is ~Overbalanced by the fact that the
acreage is known to be too low. and the
amount Of wheat raised is probably as
much as claimed in the report. In q few
counties the assessors did not obtain full re-
ports, and in such the acreagei is necessarily
too small.
AS a straw Indicating that the farmers
do not always oyer-estimate the yields, is
the following: The estimates obtained last
year 1880 In the same manner as this,
only less thorough, gave an aggregate OF
100000 bushels less than the actual num-
Der of bushels reported by the assessors
of 1891.
So far as the government figures are
concerned, they are obtained in precisely
the same way as ours are, except that the
Washington department does not have one
third as many correspondents as we do;
and | happen to know that the figures sent
in from this state to Washington were
within a half a bushel per acre of those we
bave given. But the Washington authOri-
ties cut them down, on their own authori-
ty, from twenty-five bushels to less than
eighteen. Who has been doing the "guess-
ingm
While on this subject of statistics, it
is proper to add that the Bismarck
TRIBUNE is now engaged in the collec-
ton of individual reports from the
farmers of Burleigh. county , and from
more than 100 now received it is shown
that the yield in this county averaged
YER twenty bushels to the acre. Con-
siderlng the fact that the attention of
the farmers of this section has turned
from wheat raising to stock and diversi-
fed farming, this yield of wheat is re-
markable. 1t will be admitted that by
no mean was the average in Burleigh
last year equal to that of the famous
Red River valley wheat belt. If the
average is owe twenty bushels in this
part Of the state, it may be set down as
a fact that the average off the state is
fully as high as estimated by the state
statistician.