The Portland daily press. [volume] (Portland, Me.) 1862-1921, 1892-10-08
Lsnecia! Correspondence.i


elected president? That is the question
of questions. IT'S only month till the
answer will be given by the people them
selves. But we Americans do not like
to wait till thing is settled. We want
to take both time and events by the fore
lock, shake them savagely and compel
them to yield to our eager curiosity
before they are ready tc do SO.
In this letter | am not going to proph-
esy. Sad experience has taught me
the futility of prophecy in politics. You
have heard of the Virginia German who
was induced to put up all his savings to
make a sure thing" of his candidacy
| for some petty Office, and of his ejacula-
| ton when the votes were counted and
the other fellow had an overwhelming
majority. "Polidicks vos ono son of d
gun" said he, and he was right One
of the best pieces of advice ever had
and have had great deal-was from
an old newspaper friend, who said,
'Don't prophesy; write facts"
So I don't wish to become prophetic
as to the presidential election. do wish
to give you such facts or supposed facts
| as have been able to catch up with at
| the headquarters of the two national
committees.
Ihave been around these headquarters,
off and on, for SIX weeks, meeting man
ayers, their lieutenants and distinguished
visitors from all parts of the country.
l have lived in political atmosphere
in two political atmospheres till think
don't know anything at all about it.
Having progressed far enough to con-
clude that personally know nothing.
there is a great probability Of my being
| of some service to the reader, who would
| like to have answer to the query with
which begin this letter, for in my own
| ignorance shall of necessity fall back
upon the information furnished by men
whose business it is to know.
Let me say at the outset that it is pre-
cious little / care who wins in Novem-
Der. You may be Republican, dear
reader, or Democrat. | am neither.
You may be a Populist, or a Prohibi-
ZIONIST, or something else. amt. I'm
nothing nothing but a newspaper writer,
| an observer, a watcher and listener,
| student of men and events. | am not
even Mugwump, nor an Independent.
| l don't vote-live in Washington ard
can't, and wouldn't if I lived anywhere
else and could. Why? No matter. The
point is that | am unprejudiced, fancy
| free and truthful according to my lights.
So if / figure things out the way you
don't want them figured out, keep your
| temper. ii
l. My aim is to give you the essence of
all the information which have been
able to gather among the politicians,
and l must be permitted to do SO in my
own way, without fear. Of giving offense
or hope of winning favor. If you don't
| relish frankness about the political stu
alton, you will do well to drop this let
ter right here.
| 1t is an exceedingly complex situation
which we now have in the political
world. The result of the presidential
election hangs upon a dozen states-not
upon two or three AS the manager.
say, "There is fighting all along the
line" You will not be able to tell who
has been elected when you hear from
New York and Indiana. You will have
to wait until the back counties in West
Virginia, Alabama, Wisconsin, Illinois.
| Nebraska and many states besides are
reported.
It is situation full of doubt and
| pregnant of surprises. The result may
indeed be such as to elect one or the
other candidate by an overwhelming
| majority in the electoral college, but
| the smartest men in both camps doubt
| this and look for d close and driving
finish. In fact the new elements Of
doubt to certain extent balance one
another, and the best analysis of the
field have yet seen brings out three
probabilities in the following order:
First-If Cleveland carries New York
| he will almost certainly win.
Second-If Harrison carries New York
he probably will win.
Third-Third party success in some
western and southern states will throw
the election into the house of represent
! atives.
This gives Cleveland the best of it on
probabilities, you say. Yes, it does. 1t
gives him two chances to Harrison's one.
He has an even chance with Harrison in
the electoral college, and he has chance
which Harrison hasn't-to be elected by
the house of representatives,.
Sitting down with paper and pencil,
using the most trustworthy information
and the best Judgment to be had, one
can make detailed table of probabilities
as follows:
SURE FOR CLEVELAND.
Votes Votes.
Arkansas ........... Mississippi. ......... 9
Delaware. ........... 8 Missouri ............ II
Florida. ............. New Jersey 10
Georgia ........... ID South Carolina.....
Kentucky. ID Tennessee. II
Louisiana ........... Texas ............... 10
Maryland. Virginia ............ IL
Michigan ...........
Total. I4o
SURE FOR HARRISON.
Votes. Votes.
Idaho. ...,........... Oregon.
Iowa ................ IL Pennsylvania ...... 81
Maine. Rhode Island. $3.50.
Massachusetts ...... 10 Vermont. .-......... 4