The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1892-01-11
BANK ER CLEWs' VIEWS.
What Ee Thinks of the Financial Out
look,

NEW York. Jan. 9-The first week of the
new year exhibited the general activity in
the stock market that our weekly advices
foreshadowed. The disbursement of over
one hundred millions of January interests
| and dividends is attended with an
! active demand for bonds aud for
! divideud-paying stocks; and those
| purchases have given stimulus to the
latent feeling in favor OF higher prices. and
developed an active speculative movement,
under which prices have advanced through
| out the list The transactions on the 5x-
! change have doubled the volume prevailing
| during the quiet OF several preceding weeks,
and symptoms seem to favor the pre-
| poDderant opinion that campaign of I'M
usual activity has set in which Is likely to
| be continued throughout the year.
! Thus for, the buying has come mainly
| from investors and the class OF large
| operators who are Immediately interested
in railroad and other corporate properties,
DESTROYS OF creating a market for disposing
OF portion Of their large holdings Specu-
lative orders from local Outsiders" and
from the interior, however, are beginning
60 come in, but have not yet become con-
| splcuously large; though some exception
| to this role must be made in the case OF
| Chicago operators, who rank among the
most sanguine bulls" aud as the latter
stand nearest to the section most immedi-
ately benefited by last years harvest and
| should therefore be good judges Of the rail-
road prospects for 1892, this fact should
| have some weight in estimating
the future course Of the market. Much
| must depend on the extent to which the
| outside public may be drawn into the mar
ket. If they appear IN force, the larger OPP
! orators will remain on the scene. II they
keep aloof, the capitalist class may be ex-
! pected to realize as far as may be feasible
| without seriously depressing prices, and
| then wait for new opportunities. The early
| future Of the market seems likely to de-
| pend largely upon this contingency, and it
| is not easy to say which turn the market
| may be expected to take. The fact that
| there is not at present any great thrush
| Of outsiders is not Of itself decisive proof
| that they may NOT be forthcoming OF O
| somewhat later stage. In all matters re-
lating to this class it is to be remembered
| that they have become more cautious and
conservative than formerly, and 1t may
turn out that many are waiting until
! better assured that the newborn boom
| is going to live long enough to give
| them fair chance. The two weeks during
| which the rise has been in progress is GER
| tainly not long enough to determine what is
their disposition. If it were, with this
class. merely question Of conditions affect
| ing the intrinsic value of securities and the
| monetary facilities for speculation there
|
be expected from them; for there can be no
| doubt that the railroad traffic of 1899 will
| exceed all precedent, and there is an equal
chance of a long sustained ease in the loan
market. Those alone, however, are not the
only conditions necessary for an active
speculation. 1t is equally Important that
there should be the individual financial
means for buying and carrying stocks; and
how far chat condition exists remains to be
| determined.
Opinions differ as to the results of the
past years business of the country, some
maintaining that neither manufacturers nor
merchants have made their usual profits,
while others hold that the quiet of business
has been due mainly to conservatism folio ~
ing the crisis Of 1890, and that after all the
business OF 1891 has left nearly an average
rate Of profit. On this question more than
upon any other condition depends the future
course Of the stock market, and the current
month will solve the problem. In tho
meantime the ''street" ia not likely to Jump
to any positive opinions on this point, but Is
likely to sustain the market until it Ia set
tied what may be expected from the ''out-
side" element. In the meantime there Is
likely to be some realizing on recent profits,
which probably range between and s
points, and are therefore tempting to pru-
dent operators. That process, indeed, is
now IN operation; but as such sales are soon
followed by repurchases they have no
marked effect upon prices.
1t is especially important to keep the fact
that new and important group of stocks
will from this time come into prominence
through the forwarding Of the corn crop.
The department of agriculture estimates
the Out-turn of that crop at 1900, 00O COO
bushels, which is the largest but one ever
realized. 1t is the last crop to come into
the market, and Is now beginning to be
moved. The securities of the roads depend
ent upon this grain have, in degree, SYM
pathized with the improvement in the
finances of the roads serving the wheat
belt; but there is still a liberal margin for
further advance to come from the future re-
ports of actual increase of traffic; aud this
lengthening of the list of roads showing
large increases can hardly fail to have the
effect of advancing prices later. 1t will be
the infusion of new steam to replace that
which has evaporated, and will, therefore,
act as a sustaining force to the general
market. Ii ls questionable whether sufii-
Gent Importance has been attached to the
volume of this years supply of grain des-
tined to como to the seaboard. Coincident
with our unprecedented crops the wheat
crop being now officially reported at 6l2,-
OOOOU0 busnelsl, there is a general deficiency
in Europe, and the Russian export is now
wholly cut off, while Russia herself may
have to import. 1t is, therefore, quite pos
sihle that our years export of wheat
and -four may reach 200, 900, OO0
bushels, and our corn shipments
may show a similar ratio of increase. This
means very important increase in the grain
tonnage of the trunk roads connecting with
the west; and, at the same time, the full
occupation Of the rolling stock of those
roads is calculated to maintain rates of
f.eiRht. The home situation therefore in
cludes elements calculated TO stimulate a
further advance in SOCKS beyond what has
been so far realized; but. as the present
tone Of the market is conservativsly" buliish'
rather than highly sanguine. pkudent oper-
atorS are likely TO realize upon the profits Of
the late advance in the hope of buying back
upon reactions; and we commend that
policy for the moment to our friends.