Evening journal., 1892-10-06
AT HEADQUARTERS.
WALTER WELLMAN CLEANS SOME
FACTS ABOUT THE CAMPAIGN.
Ue Figures II Out So scientifically That
You Cannot Guess Who win BE Elected
His Analysis Is Tntererestlng. but we
win Not Bet on IL.

A"H '"hhot Nutss VINO WIN hc LlectcN.
His Analysis Is Tntererestlng. but we
WIN Not Bet ON II.
Especial Correspondence
NEW YoRK, Oct G.-Who will b.
elected president? That is the questio
Of questions. 'Tis only n month till tn,
answer will be given by the people them
selves. But we Americans do not like
TO wait till thing is settled. We want
20 tako botlrtime and events by the fore
lock, shake them savagely and compel
them to yield to our eager curiosity
before they are ready to do so.
In this letter am not going to proph-
esy. Sad experience has taught me
the futility Of prophecy in politics. You
have heard Of tho Virginia German who
was induced TO put up all his savings to
make "sure thing" Of his candidacy
for some petty Office, and of his eiucula-
ton when the votes W counted and
the other fellow had an O, ,rwhelming
majority. "Polidicks vos one son of a
gun, said he, and he was right One
of the best pieces of advice l ever had
and have had a great deal-was from
an old newspaper friend, who said
Don't prophesy; write facts"
So l don't wish to become prophetic
as to the presidential election. do wish
to give you such facts or supposed facts
as have been able to catch up with at
the headquarters of the two national
committees.
s Ihave been around these headquarters,
of and on, FOR six weeks, meeting man
ayers, their lieutenants and distinguished
visitors from all parts of the country.
have lived in political atmosphere
in two political atlnospheres-tillI think
don't know anything at all about it.
Having progressed far enough to con-
clude that personally know nothing.
there is a great probability Of my being
Of some service to the reader, who would
like to have answer to the query with
which begin this letter, for in my own
ignorance / shall of necessity fall back
upon the information furnished by men
whose business it is to know.
Let me say at the outset that it is pre-
cious little | caro- who wins in Novem-
Der. You may be a Republican, dear
reader, OF Democrat. / am neither
You may be Populist, or a Prohibi
ZIONIST, or something else amt. I'm
nothing-nothing buta newspaper writer,
= an observer, a watcher and listener, a
student of men and events. / am not
? even a Mugwump, nor an Independent
| don't voto-live in Washington and
2 can't, and wouldn't if lived anywhere
else and could. Why? No matter. The
point is that l am unprejudiced, fancy
free and truthful according to my lights.
t SO if figure things out the way you
don't want them figured out, keep your
! temper.
p Ny aim is to give you the essence Of
!, all the information which / have been
+ able to gather among the politicians
+ and must be permitted to do so in my
/ own way. without fear Of giving offens,
or hope of winning favor. If you dom
| relish frankness about the political stu
/ alton, You will do well to drop this let
ter right here.
o It is an exceedingly complex situation
which we now have in the politica
world. The result Of the presidentia
r election hangs upon a dozen states-no'
5 upon two or three. As the manage.
say, "Thcre is fighting all along th'
O line" You will not be able to tell wh1
h has been elected when you hear from
f New York and Indiana. You will hav,
a to wait until the back counties in West
3 Virginia, Alabama, Wisconsin, Illinois
= Nebraska and many states besides ar,
a reported.
h 1t is a situation full Of doubt and
n pregnant Of surprises. The result may
4 indeed be such as to elect one or The
q other candidate by an overwhelming
q majority in the electoral college, bui
the smartest men in both camps doubf
h this and look for a close and driving
. finish. In fact the new elements OF
h doubt to a certain extent balance one
!. another, and the best analysis Of the
II neld 1 have yet seen brings out three
q probabilities in the following order;
/. First-If Cleveland carries New Yorl
# he viii almost certainly win.
~ Second-If Harrison carries New Yorl
h. he probably will win.
10 Third-Third party success in some
:, western and southern states will throw
10 the election into the house of represent
10 atives.
Il This gives Cleveland the best Of it OF
N probabilities you say. Yes, it does. Il
! gives him two chances to Harrison's one
He has an even chance with Harrison il
tie electoral college, and he has a chance
-, which Harrison hasn't-to be elected b,
the house Of representatives.
. Sitting down with paper and pencil
using the most trustworthy information
i. and the best Judgment TO be had, on
=. can make detailed table Of probabilitie
as follows;
SURE FOR CLEVELAND.
+ Votes Votes
IN Arkansas ........... Mississippi. ........
" Delaware. 3 Missouri ............ ]
le Florida............. 4 New Jersey ......... ]
Gcorgia ............. 10 South Carolina.....
kentucky. ......... 10 Tenncssee...........
p Louisiana ........... Texas ............... ]
Maryland.......... s Virginia ........... ]
Michigan ...........