Omaha daily bee., 1892-06-02
M. Jules Simon is Confident That Francs
Would Vanquish Germany.
HIS REASONS FOR THINKING THUS
Various Phases or n Delicate and Dinlcult
Situation Carefully Reviewed ISy tho
Old French Statesman-Strcngth of
the Countries Compared.
rcopwt,ntcd tso, by Jams, Goriop B,nn...,

in essence, may not precipitato struggle"
That was the reply Jules Simon gave today
to the question, us war likely to result from
the fetes that are to be held at Nancy next
weekl' In reply to another question Simon
said:
'If there is war between France and Ger
many, 1t is my firm conviction that France
will be victorious In the fight"
There are in or out OF France few men
who can read the signs of the times more
shrewdly than the eminent statesman, or
who are more dispassiopate or unbiased in
their judgment
"What Is it you want to see me aooutp
M. Simon asked. l told him how the public
had been impressed by the timely and wise
observations he made last week respecting
President Carnot's forthcoming visit to
Nancy and which had been quoted in the
editorial columns Of the Paris Herald. Any
thing more no might have to say on the same
subject could not fail to be of interest, espe-
cially to those who believed tho present
situation noneycombed with dangers.
Changes in the Times.
"Certainly the situation is very serious"
M. Simon said. "Some observers of the
signs of the times are of the opinion that it
somewhat resembles that of 1870. To a Ger.
tain extent that may be right. but there are
8 lient points of difference. First of ALL the
sentiment of the two nations is not what it
was IN 1870. Then there was longing for
war. Napoleon I'LL felt war was necessary
IL he was to keep the throne. The king of
Prussia was also anxious for war. He was
confident of victory. His army was much
superior to the French; he had more men
and his military organization was better,
while he also possessed in Moltke a general-in-
chief to whom no French commander could
compare. Napoleon should have known these
facts, but he did not or 1t may be he
refused TO recognize their Importance. Be-
sides he counted upon aid from Austria. lie
entered upon the cempaign In the spirit OF
the adventurer who believes everything is to
be gained and that nothing can be lost by
the coup he has placed-who considers only
the chances of success and wholly disregards
the consequences of failure.
'Nowadays 1t is entirely different. Neither
| France nor Germany has any intentions Of
going to war if war can be avoided. The
| German emperor undoubtedly has 10 gout dc
| parade. He would like to make a great
| show in the world, and he thinks 1t would be
| a magnificent thing for him, were he able, to
| crush Franco, but William III told me him
| self that neither country could be certain
of victory and that for the country beaten 1T
would moan complete and irretrievahle ruin.
l do not believe he could have any reason
| for saying such things unless he fully be-
| lieved what he said l was not at Berlin as
| Ambassador. My mission, though official In
| one sense, was concerned with the labor
question, and was not of a character to call
| forth remarks OF that kind unless they were
| not cold diplomatic utterauces, but the ex-
| preston of personal opinion. That statement
| was perfectly spontaneous. He knows pretty
| nearly exactly how the German stands to the
| French army, and l do not believe he would
have gone to the trouble of a gratuitious lie.
| Had he thought his army was certain of VIC
| tory, he would have remained silent l have
| dwelt upon this because think 1t was q con-
| fession of the highest Importance.
Thinks France Would Win.
"For my own part am convinced II there
| was war between France and Germany,
| France will be the conqucror. In the last
| war we had no chance. We were out
numbered, our artillery was lamentably
weak, and-but need say nothing about our
| organization. We fought with courage
worthy of ali admiration. and which GREW
recognition even from our opponents, but
| what could valor against the science
| of Won Mo!tke and the overwhelming
superiority Of the German army2 But now
| the relative positions are changedi France
| possesses an infantry equal to any; a great
infantry. Our artillery is also strong. The
| advance that has Deen made IN that arm is
| extraordinary. On tho other hand our cav
| airy is not so good. There lies une petit
| danger.
| 'Then comes the question Of generalship.
Won Moltke is dead and who is there to fill
| the vacancy? So far as | can learn there is
no Moltke now in the service Of Germany.
| On our side we have Sausier. He. like the
| present German commanders, Is now une
| generate designe par la victoile, but there
is no doubt of his real capacity, and does
Germany possess his superiorl think not
| aud oil things considered / repeat that in
the event of war 10 parierai sur la victolrie
| de ia France.
Ruin Sure for One.
"With and in spite Of all this, it is my con
firmed opinion that whoever provokes q wal
will be the real criminal. War means utter
| ruin to one country or the other, Tho exist
ence Of tho conquered nation as q greaI
| powor Will cease with defeat. Its role In th,
history world will be played out. Too grea
| stress cannot be laid upon this fact, and 1T Ii
circumstance which should maxi
men in power In both France
| and Germany pause. Future age
| a catastrophe as a malefactor of tho wors
degree. Recognizing this neither William
ii. nor any responsible politician can wish t,
| make war;
"Stili il is certain that war may com
without being desired. Incidents leading L
the crisis may crop up any mo
ment, and owing to susceptibiit!
grated on to the Alsace-Lorraine question
these fctes at Nancy seriously aggravat
| tho dangers. The position is one OF extrem
difficulty II would have been much wise
on Carnot's part not TO have gone TO Nancy
IL would have been very easy for him to hav
pleaded other engagements, TO have declines
the invitation extended him on tue groun'
tnat his duties would require him to Temai
in Paris at that particular moment.
mot for moment do think Carnot hai
any idea that his going 70 Nancy might Pre-
woke war. 1t would be absurd to suppos
that he has ever had any Intention OF caus
ing war or that the people of Nancy had an
such desire. Still he might have deciue
the invitation to the fetes."
Here asked M. Simon II he thought
| was possible for President Carnot to dra,
back now when his not going
Nancy might DO interpreted as knucl
ling down to Germany. Simon woui
make no definite answer, but th
Impression his few words and manne
| gave was that he in the intorest OF peac
! would not be displeased were the presider
, ! OF the republic taken conveniently i'll durln
, the early days Of June
Z Not Apprehensive of War.
"One last question, NJ Simon--what l
your opinion are the probabilities of peace {
| war as affected by the Nancy celebrations I
"Barring accidents, believe peace Will
: | preserved was the reply, "but an accideI
happens SO easily A man goes out for