Pittsburg dispatch. [volume] (Pittsburg [Pa.]) 1880-1923, 1892-10-26
THE DOUBTFUL STATES.

THE DOUBTFUL STATES.
UNDER the caption of ''Looking at the
Close States" the conservatively Republican
Philadelphia Public Ledger has an interest
ing editorial review Of the situation In the
sections where the campaign of 1892 Will De
lost and won. The article starts with the
statement that it is useless to make esti.
mates based on the election returns OF 1883
with the purpose OF forecasting the probable
result OF the election OF 1892, but 1t is not en-
tirely useless to show why so many States
are classed by Republicans or Democrats as
doubtful and why the probable result is un-
certain. For several years pluralities In
both Republican and Democratic states,
with the notable exception of Pennsylvania,
have been growing smaller that is to say
the parties have become OF more nearly
equal strength, and in the whole country
the two parties have been almost evenly
divided since 1870. In what are known as
the doubtful States the margin is now very
small, q change of one vote in 200 on the
basis of the vote of 1888 being sufficient to
change the electoral vote from one party to
another.
There are several other States whore slight
changes would be sufficient to cause revo-
luton, and such changes may be brought
about without any change of political senti-
ment, but solely through the greater or less
intelligence. and energy of party manage
ment. In New York State, for example.
there are always more than enough qualified
citizens who do not vote to turn over the
State, if they could be brought to the polls
and voted en- masse for the minority ticket.
Political guessers base their predictions
10 nlry ha 81,
probable success or failure of the party
managers in bringing out the vote in such
close states, but, Ignoring guesses OF all
kinds, we can learn something of the real
situation by considering simply the
election returns of 1888. these being known
Almost an Even Division.
INSTEAD of taking the actual vote, which
Is not easily understood when dealing with
large and small States, varying greatly in
population, it is better to consider percent
ages of the vote, and to look only at those
Stptes where the vote was almost evenly df-
vided in 1855. In Conhecticut at the last
Presidential election the Democrats had
1884 per cent of the vote; the Republicans,
4S.0l That is to say. in round numbers, out
of every 100 voters 40 voted the Democratic
ticket and 4S voted the Republican ticket
The other three voted the Prohibition OF
some other Third party ticket. Connections
is rightly considered debatable ground, be-
cause if one Democrat out of 200 could be per-
suaded to vote the Republican ticket next
month the State would 90 Republican.
In such cal culations net changes only are
considered. If the change of a Republican
TO the Democratic side is Offset by the
change. of Democrat to the Republican
side the result is the same as though no
change had taken place. But the figures of
1888 show that the net change of half of per
cent, or one in 200, in favor o. the Republicans
would transfer the electoral vote Of Con-
necticut from Cleveland to Harrison. Him
ois is not considered a doubtful state, but
even there the difference is only 3 per cent,
and net change of votes in 200 might
make Illinois Democratic. Indiana is much
closer and recognized as doubtful. In 1884
it was Democratic with a margin of a little
more than per cent This was overcome
per cent. 1t could be turned back into the
Democratic column by net gain from the
Republicans of one vote in q few more than
400.
States Not Ordinarily Doubtful.
IOWA, which ordinarily would not be
considered doubtful, was Republican in 1888
by plurality of nearly 81 per cent There
does not seem to be sufficient reason to sup
pose that this could be overcome, even
though the Peoples party should develop
considerable force, for third parties reduce
the strength of both principals. Maryland
is almost as hopeful for the Republicans,
judging merely by the figures as Illinois for
the Democrats, as the Democrats cast only
80 "a per cent ofthe votes in 1883 against 47.02
per cent for the Republicans, vet no one
talks about Maryland as doubtful State.
New Hampshire stands in almost the same
relation to the Republicans as Maryland to
the Democrats, the Republicans polling 50.34
per cent of the votes and the Democrats
Je.1sQa f1ut tofn flxy
Democratic for many years, is closer than
the Democratic politicians would like to ad-
nit In 1884 the Democrats had 1885 per
cent; the Republicans 47.l6; in 1888 the per-
centages were Democrats 49.s7, Republicans
So, difference OF little more than per
cent.
the most doubtful State OF all. In 1884 there
was difference of only nine one-hundredths
OF one per cent between the party votes.
The small change required was effected in
1885, when the State was turn ed to Harrison,
the Republicans getting 49, per cent of the
vote and the Democrats 4S.0l, q difference of
little more than per cent. IL is worth not
ing in this connection that the Democratic
vote fell off very little, though the Repubi-
cans gained one per cent, the main loss per
cent falling on the Third parties.
Importance of Local Complications.
Ina State polling million and half of
votes, with great centres of population like
New York and Brooklyn, it is manifest that
purely local Causes might be sufficient to
turn over enough votes to change the result
one way or the other, though the remainder
of the State should stand stead!ast in party
ranks. 1t is impossible to canvass such
big State closely enough to determine its
probable vote where the margin is so small.
A child can guess quite as well as Chairman
Carter or Chairman Harrity what the result
will be, unless there should be signs of a
political revolution.
North Carolina may be classed with Iowa,
whose percentages are about the same, but
the other way round. Ohio, though always
strongly Republican, Is close
enough to be interesting, being little more
though this result is brought
about by u strong Prohibition vote, sup
posed to be largely Republican.
Virginia and West Virginia offer splendid
fighting ground. West Virginia has been
moving toward the Republican
column for several years, owing, it is be-
lieved, to the settlement of the State by Re-
publicans from Pennsylvania and Ohio. In
1884 the Democrats polled 50s3 per cent of
the vote and the Republicans EH per cent
In 1888 the percentages were, Democrats,
"a; Republicans, 9.o2- A very slight change
in the direction heretofore followed would
give the electoral vote of the State to Har-
rison. Virginia is equally close. In 1884,
the Democrats had 5L05 per cent Of the
votes, the Republicans 1850 per cent. But
in 1888 the parties were almost evenly di-
vided, the Democrats having 1897 per cent
and the Republicans 49.47. 1t will be seen
that so far as the percentages go Virginia.
though not classed among the doubtful
States in the calculations OF either party, is
really q closer State than New York or In
diana.
Presence of an Unknown Quantity.
NOTHING has been said of such Southern
States as Alabama or such Western States as
Minnesota or Nebraska, as, If notable
are made in any of these. they will
be due to that unknown quantity, the Peo-
hn,