Fort Worth gazette. [volume] (Fort Worth, Tex.) 1891-1898, 1892-10-11
THE COTTON CROP.
The Indications Are tho Yield Wnl be 1850.
900 Bales Yesterdays Markets.

NEW ORLEANS, La, oct i0,-lSpecial
Atwood, Violet 81 90. say; In saying last
wook we had discredited crop reports last
year shown by the position wo took on tho
market, We should have said only after
the first week or so Of October whom tho
season was only fow weeks old Our
notice has been called To this and We make
the correction.
Futures; A fow days ago we said we
had made a distinction between last year
and this, in giving crcdenco this year to
crop damage. whereas last oar we did not,
and we have given our reasons for IT, We
know that tho sources from which tho
bureau gots its Information arc from
the same character Of people who write
TO US aud TO others, and. there
fore there was certainly evory reason TO
believe tho bureau to-day would report a
condition considerably below this mont h
last year, which was 1a17, and while we
8thought II would be conservative 10
put IL ~ ~, or nearly six points
lower than last mouth, we beloved
II would DO even lower The general esti-
mate was about 10. The crop OF isSs-9 was
09S0Ne bales and tho acreage OF that year
we think with tho correction subsequently
made was about ~, SOO,OOO. The bureau OF
October 'sS was ~, Tho maximum esti-
mate Of acreage this year we believe
is is, 0lOO0 and the bureau to-day
says the average was T28, Last yoar's
October " ort was "a, while the crop
was 90 u 90 b. es II WAS made, how.
ever, undrl extraordinary and unusual con-
ditions and on an average very much In
excess or what tho present crop has boon
grown upon. Wo said on Saturday
last We were backing tho pro-
ducor In his jndpmeut Of the
loss In condition and as We believe our.
selves that this crop is materially short We
arc still wishing purchases on depres'
sion, There is only one thine 80 guArd
against and we are giving daily In the diff
forenCes between December here and Law.
orpool tho best indications 10 follow. We
, showed on Saturday last that the differences
were 10 points, to-day they arc 40 points.
Liverpool has advanced 10 points while
this market has declined 20, Tho proper
difference for shipping basis should
be anywhere from 100 10 l4b points.
The differences for several months
past have not boon more than
enee OF 1885 points would represent the price
In which cotton could DO bought on this
aide and sold, including expenses In Liver
pool, without loss. OF course this Ia not
rule 10 follow, because tho greater
part OF tho buying In this market OF
lato has been on basis of about
100 points on December but In tho long run
tho differences will widon and this II may
do by more rapid advance in Liverpool,
or more rapid decline hero Just az we had
to-day, and still again differences might
widen even on an advancing market
| by Liverpool advancing moro than
this market W0 have boon wild to-day
| iluctuat ons OF or 8 poluls without trade
between has been tho order Of tho day Tho
bureau has put It's official stamp presum-
ably upon the probable turn Of tho crop,
| IL remains 70 be- seen what Liverpool viii
do That must be the controlling market
| now, inhsmuch as the crop Is for tho mo
| ment oft Of tho way. Receipts will also
have an important bearing.
Port receipts to-day arc 10000 bales
against 1900 bal0s last year Tho esti
mate hero tomorrow IA IS, 900 balos against
10000 bales last year aud 1900 bales ut all
| ports last year,
We had frost dispatches to-day from Nc.
| Kinney, Tex, and Columbus, Mise, but APP
| parently with no eject on tho market.
| There was heavy realizing by longs to-day
/ aud stop orders caused further depression.
| The closing Is TOO unsettled for US TO mako
any prediction except tho general
advice we ofer above. Our belief
Is that this crop is about 72500OO bales
maximum. II may bo 10000 bales, but
we are not timid about going on record 50
| long as we have what We consider reliable
| information 10 back US in that judgement
| A clor ical error WA made In our Office To-
| day In adviHing our constituents generally
that tho bureau was 70.5 Instead Of asa.