The times. [volume] (Richmond, Va.) 1890-1903, 1892-12-11

THE COTTON SITUATION.
SHEPERSON SAYS THE PRESENT
CROP Is EXCEEDINGLY SHORT.
The Acreage as Well as Yield Materially
Less Than for Several Years-The
Price Will Remain Firm.

NEW YORK. Dec. 1O-The following
review Of the cotton situation has been
prepared for the United Press by Alfred
=. Sheperson, editor of the Cotton Facts.
and an acknowledged authority on mat
ters pertaining to cotton:
The present cotton crop was grown upon
an acreage materially less than the pre-
vious crop, and upon soil exhausted by
the enormous yields Of two successive
years. The Department Of Agriculture
estimated the reduction in acreage at
16 IL per cent. and Official and reliable
private advices convince me that the
Departments estimate is substantially
correct
The reduction in the use Of fertilizers
was 80 10 40 per cent. The crop was back
ward, and on October 18th was generally
fifteen TO fifty days later than last year.
Killing frosts were quite general from
october 18th, and caused a loss Of 100000
bales or more
In the Memphis district alone It has
been stated that 10000 bales were de-
stroyed by frosts. Advlces from official
and trustworthy private sources leave
no room for doubt that the Yield Der
acre Is very much less than last season.
The most unfavorable accounts from mer-
chants who are in touch with the plant
ers have recently been received by me
from prominent planters throughout the
South, and they fully confirm the reports
Of reduced yield which comes from other
sources. In many sections the crop is
turning out to be much less than was
expected a month or so ago AS the
gathering Of the crop progresses and ap-
proaches completion its shortage be
comes more apparent. Up TO this time
last year the tendency of merchants and
planters was to underestimate the crop.
This year the general tendency has been
exactly the contrary, and there has been
an increasing disposition to reduce esti-
mates.
l make the commercial crop Of this
season about $4,000 bales. This would
be 2.51S,OOO bales less than the crop Of
last season. From present indication l
would regard 650O000 as the maximum
Of the crop, and it may fall short of this.
The present average is about what 1t was
in 18S4-'S5, and the commercial crop Of
that season was 100000 bales.
Now for the price: For two seasons
very low prices have ruled; lower than
most men have ever seen. They were
caused by the pressure Of the enormous
two immense crops Of 1S9O-'9l and 1912.
On September 1st middling upland cotton
was worth here 1-8c. on the oath OF
September 1t advanced to 5-sc., and it
continued to advance until 10c. was
reached on November 25th. There has
since been a recession Of 1-ic.This great
advance Of nearly &c. was due largely TO
the purchases Of futures by merchants
and capitalists as a speculation. Prices
.Nrr1r~ a
by the large stocks Of cotton in all cot
ton centres but the small crop coming
in will have the effect to restore stocks
to their usual proportions. While there
will, Of course, be fluctuations, / do not
think prices will again reach the low
figures of the past two seasons, but that
about the present prices will be maintain
ed. / think they are warranted by the
statistical position and by the trade con-
ditions. At the beginning Of the season
the visible supply Of cotton in the world
was $50 900 more than the previous year.
1t is now 10000 less than last year.
This change of over a million bales In
the position has worked a wonderful !
change in the views Of many people in
regard TO the value of cotton.
WASHINGTON, Dec. 10.-The returns |
Of the price Of cotton on the plantation |
on the 1st day Of December, according to |
the report Ol TIE SAdllHAliidlA VI tAN @NoAi7
cultural Department, indicate a return |
10 nearly farm values under the stimulus |
)f a short crop. The result is largely Of |
4 reduced acreage. The New Orleans !
price Of middling in the first week Of |
March when planters were urged by |
his Department TO reduce acreage, was
7-1Gc.,' and i'm the first week Of Decem-
,er it was 7-lGc.. and i'm the increase Of
5 per cent plantation prices are now
higher than ever in comparison with ex-
port prices, showing either narrow
margin in marketing or d holding for
uture advance. The average of planta-
ion prices is S4c.; that Of Virginia. SEC;
Iorth Carolina, SEC; South Carolina,
SC: Georgia, Soc; Florida upland, SIC;
Alabama. S5c. Mississippi s.5c.; Louisi-
ma, S4c.; Texas, Sic; Arkansas, Soc;