The Helena independent. [volume] (Helena, Mont.) 1875-1943, 1892-05-05
The FINANCIAL REVIEW.
Wall Street Markets Continue Vac
Hating and Uncertain, but
Fairly Active.
Nothing New Known ala to tho
Prospect for Crops In
tho Fall.

An Export OF Gold In Excess of tho
Normal Moyemsnt-Ths Proposed
silver Confarence.
New YoRK, May 4.-[spacial. The
last circular issued by the banking house Of
Henry Clsws Il Co.. II, 10 and is Brond
street AND 35 Wall street, says: The
Wall street markets continue vacillating
and uncertain. though fairly Motive. During
tho past week .bear" influences have
seemed to p~reponderate. London has
shown some timidity and disposition to
realize, notwithstanding tho growing ease
in money there. and tho selling here on
London account has stimulated the export
of gold, which again has affected tho stock
market unfavorablv. The uncertainty
about the relations between the
Pennsylvania railroad and the com.
binsd anthracite roads has not
disappeared and still continues to throw a
certain degree of doubt around that I'M
portant group Of stocks; while the Welther
of the week has contributed nothing to-
wards solving the uncertainty that hangs
around the crop prospects. In the absence
Of any important immediate counter
factors. this group of influences has pro-
duced q prepondefanoe OF selling over buy
ing and the tendency of prices has BEN
downward. But, at the same time, tho
'bulV' side maintains courage and shows
no abatement of confidence in a future
higher range Of prices; but seems quite
willing to allow ample rope to the bears for
creating . short interest.
The market is naturally sensitive to the
export Of gold, and the current shipments
dispose Tome operators to curtail transac-
tions until it becomes more apparent what
dimensions the movement is likely to as
sume. II 10 not easy to see, however, what
good reasons there are for any a%pprehen-
sion on this point. Thus far this year we
have exported ftem New York about Sl6.-
300, 900 of gold and imported S6,OOO,O0O
making the net export $40, 500, 900. This 10
somewhat in excess Of the normal move
ment for this season Of the year. For the
five years 1887 to 1891, inclusive, the net ex-
port of the United States for the first four
months of the year averaged only $4,700,-
600; 80 that, fer the expired portion of 1892,
we are about $4,000. 600 in advance of the
usual movement; and, assuming the pres
ent conditions to be normal, we might in
fer that this excess should tend to diminish
future shipments. We ave to anticipate,
however. a larger outflow following this
month, and it is supposed four millions
at least will go out by to-mor. ow's
steamers. In the years 1896, 'S9, '88 and '87,
the net exports+of gold for the whole coun-
try, for the months of May. June and July,
o~o<.1 N1k HN0 HO0 uhjnh n ha l. atfan
az a normal movement for that period of
the wear. Shonld the excess in the last four
months, above referred to, be credited
against this $15. 600 900, it is inferable that
the next three months export require
ments may amount to about $lO,oeoO.ooO,
ment; which is not a prospect to exotic any
nneagineas.
There is a limit to which the balance be-
tween the current merchandise imports and
exports should be regarded as indicating
the probable exports of specie. The i'm
ports have been swelled beyond the ordi.
nary limits by the pressure of European
manufacturer to find in our markets an
outlet for their goods. The 50 plus pro-
ducts accumulated abroad in consequence
of trade depression have caused large de-
olines in prices. which has no doubt in
duced some of our importers to buy more
freely than they otherwise would; but 1T
has had a much more important effect in
causing the consignment Of goods to this
county, to be sold for what they will bring,
or to be held for a limit price. The value
that these consignments may realize will,
as q rule, be very different from that at
which they are entered ut the custom
houses; and, to this extent, the figures OF
imports are swelled considerably above tho
remlttances that will have to be made in
payment. In the majority Of these cases.
the c%onsignees mako remittance Of a GER
tain percentage of the value of the goods
in advance Of their sale; and it is not i'm
probable that such payments may have
materially contributed to swell the specie
exports Of tho last four months beyond
their ordinary volume. SO far as such I'M
satisfactory remittances have been made,
future remittancea will be reduced. The
increasing ease in money at all the Euro
pean centers may be expected to prove
some check upon our export OF gold; for a
point must be reached at which the foteign
snces to rest here rather than feed the glut
Of money on their own markets. lhura-
days leduction Of the Bank OF England
rate to two per cent is calculated to en-
courage this drift towards ease. and may
be expected to foster Investment in our So
c~urities.
Tho position of the grain trade seems to
f~oreoast probabilities favorable to our TO-
tentlon of gold. The important informa-
ton contributed by our minister ut ST.
Petersburg rs to the situation produced by
the great famine of Russia warrants the
conclusion that virtually no export of grain
may DO expected from that country out OF
the next crop, and 1t 10 likely to require
years to restore Russia to har forinar status
as a source Of cereal supplies. A very larpe
hiatus in the worlds product of breadstuffs
IL thus crested, and it will devolve chiefly
upon the United Staten, MS tho principal
exporting country, to fill the vacuum. The
inference from this prospect Id that. if We
have another good orop year, We shall new
ertheless realize higher pricesfor our grain:
and, if wo should have Il poor cror. the
consequent still higher prices obtained for
the surplus of one hundred million bush
els of wheat to be carried over into
the coming crop year will be an abundant
compensation for the failure, whilst we
shall be likely to be enabled to keep our
stock Of gold in good shape. I hus the
prospect for the future of our AGRICULTURAL
interest aud for the railroad interest 30 di-
rectly dependent upon it may be regarded
as moro than ordinarily satisfactory.
The Preparations for the proposed inter
national monetary conference arpenr ia
have reached n point which leaves little or
no doubt about it's early realization. From
tho best sources of information we learn
that G eat Britain, France, GERMANY. Hell
pinm ana Italy have alleady informally OK
pressed TO our ministers at those courts
their Willingness to participate in sueh n
conference.