Condon globe. (Condon, Gilliam Co., Or.) 189?-1919, 1892-09-02
TIE ToZAk KoEE.


papers, especially the metropolitan
journals, and just now the chief OBJ
iect held up for guessers to shoot at
is the election. The rewards OF
success are varied, but all of them
sufficiently valuable to stimulate
competition and satisfy the winner.
The coming pugilistie encounters
are receiving some attention, but
the guessers who want their mon
ey's worth will find a wider field
for the exercise of their Yankee
acuteness in the political contest.
Never was there finer field for the
mere guesser and poorer show for
the mathematical politician, says
the 0regonian, The complications
of parties and the unusual confu-
sion of local conditions render the
situation difficult one for the
prophet and open wide range for
the talent of the guesser. 1t is
more than the most astute politi-
elan can do to estimate the total
number of votes that will be cast
within varying margin of 1,000,-
GOO. When even this fundamental
proposition is so uncertain, it is ev-
ident that the work of dividing the
vote between the parties and fac
tions can be nothing but the purest
guessing.
According to the census there in
June, 1890, just 16,940,311 males of
voting age in the United States.
OF these 1851, ,S52 were native
born and 4,3S4, ,459 foreign born.
OF the latter $3.50 per cent had
been naturalized and SAB had ta-
ken out their naturalization papers.
By this it appears that only one
sixth of the legal voters Of the
country are foreign born, a statisti-
cal fact somewhat at variance with
the popular idea of the power Of the
foreign vote. Native and foreign
voters numbered all told Il, ,200.922
III 1890, and to this should be add
ed 100000 for the increase the past
two years, making possible vote of
100000. This is the basis for
estimating the vote that will be
cast next November. From this
must be deducted residents Of the
District of Columbia and territories
and Indians residing in states, but
not entitled to vote, say 100000,
leaving IL, 5,400,000 votes that might
legally be cast. The guesser must
begin at this point, by making such
allowances for influences tending
to keep men away from the polls
as i'll bis Judgment he may see fit,
and there is little in statistics to
guide him. It all depends upon
how he may view the situation. If
apathetic, he will probably think
thousands Of others equally SO, and
viii reckon a large per cent of nom
voters. If he is enthusiastic he
will alter his figures accordingly.
In 1856, which was an "off year"
9,210,395 votes were cast, though
two years before, with voting pop |
ulation some 100000 less, there
were 10.056. BAT. In 1888 there
were 11,387.029. This shows that |
In 1000 the vote was 1872 per
cent of the population, while two
years before it was 1876 showing
conclusively that the presidential
election excites mere general inter
est than local elections. The ques-
tion for the guesser to decide is
whether there are influences at
work to bring out larger percent
age of the possible vote in 1892
than came out in 1888. This
is not SO easy a matter to determine
as might appear. A great deal Of
the silent vote is found in those /
states giving such large party ma
lorities that no anxiety is felt about
the result. This has been especial
y noticeable il the South, where
the overwhelming democratic sen
timent in some states and the sup