New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1892-07-22
THE WHEAT SITUATION.
FALSE PROPHETS COMPOUNDED.

n,,, crr.T EXPORTS AND sURfLUs-EFgECTS
or FAIAEHoODs-VALUE OF TIE
CROP OF 1891
To the Editor Of The Tribune.
S,. The preliminary statements OF exports OF
,rhoat and -four for the month of June shows
on aggregate Of l41ls.Sl9 bushels. feur included.
Duripg the previous eleven months. according to
the final statements by the Treasury. the net
.xno,ts from all ports were equal 10 oI0li2,6s4
bushels so that the aggregate exports for the
cron wear were about 22A, 1871 .4s3 bushels. -four
included against l06 0s3, 0s6 bushels In the previ-
ous wear. and ls6,273,994 bushels in the fiscal
year 1ssO'sl a quantity never equaed In any
other year until surpassed by $4,000, 900 bushels
in the wear just closed The final statement for
lime NAV require slight but only slight modi
Acation of these figures for 1892.
Tho crop of 1891 was officially reported a.
61l.7s0 900 bushels, but was probably even larger.
The surplus brought last July was at least
lsl3472l bushels in excess Of the minimum
carried over in 1882. Thus the supply for the
crop year was at least 629,0l4,72l bushels,
and probably little larger. According TO estl-
mates Of the Treasury published each month,
the population was 63975,000 year ago. ana
$50 900 July /, 1892 that the mean popu-
lation for the year was GA ,747 800 At the yearly
average for the previous nine years, the consump-
ton for food was 300, 734,8 1853 bushels, and the
Department states the consumption for seed dur
ing the crop wear at So, 900 900 bushels Thus the
total consumption was 355 734,663 bushels ana
the quantity remaining for export at least ga
lsO,O5s bushels. Deducting the actual exports
as above stated we find that the supply remaining
July was at least 49,34s,5 bushels in excess
of the minimum never disturbed, and it may be
safely put at 100000 bushels
There is no penalty except public contempt for
crors. however much harm they may do 10 indi-
viduals or the country For that reason pubic
ccnsure onght to be rigidly and unsparngy applied
when there is occasion. There ought not 10
be comforting Oblivion for that so-called Stats
tician of Kansas who Historically predicted
vast deficiency OF wheat and the most frightful
famine IN Europe ever known since the dawn
of history There ought not to be another chance
10 get a respectful hearing for Mr.. Pillsbury and
the officers of the Minnesota Alliance, who told
the farmers to keep back their wheat because it
would certainly sell at 50 bushel before many
days The supply in this country proves to have
been so 0O0, 900 bushels in excess of all demands
The price rose at NcwYorll in August to 81 ID IS
when some of these false predictions were being
made, was never lifted by. similar predictions
passionatey repeated above 81 90 az New-York
and for the last three months of the crop year.
when farmers who had held their wheat In the
hope of So a bushcl were forced to sell the price
ranaed between IS and es cents per bushel
The injury done to the farmers by this laborcd
dissemination Of untruths cannot easily be meas
ured. They lost a good market for many million
bushels which they have on hand. The great sur
plus carried over July must depress the price
Of the crop now being harvested, 20 what extent
no one can say. II is certainly a large crop, and
would sell AT rather low figures in any case, but
Lox. do IL
probable that the farmers will not realize much
by many millions they would have received
if the great crop of ls9l had been marketed nat
urallv and freely The loss of many millions. If
il comes and hurts, the farmers may charge, not
to silver decentralization the tariff or scarcity Of
money but 70 the leadrcs of the Alliance, the man
agcr for the British milling syndicate. and the
Kansas manufacturer Of statistics.
The matchless crop OF 1891, at the average OF
New-York daily quotations for the crop year, has
sold Mt 81 DOLL per bushe against 81 oGs7 for
the crop Of 1890. The price would have been
lower in the fall and higher in the spring but
for falsehoods, for more wheat might just as well
have been sent abroad. If the entire crop had
been sold at the average of daily quotations at
New-Yofk. it would have brought 1896, 100000
whereas the farm value as estimated by the De
partment was S5I3 5000, 900. and the difference is
not much more than the actual cost of transpor-
taton 10 this city. Other crops AT the average oil
daily New-York quotations and at the Department
estimates OF farm values worth:
Crop " Y. Price Farm Value
1ssG,67 4j72l 900 S4l1 100000 14,OOOOOO
Iss7.,ss $500 900 400 O0O,OOO 81 100000
isss.'eo - 4l5 s6s 600 3050OO.O0O 3e5.OOO,0p
asO 90 ~ 400 $4,000 430OO0,OOO 342,OUO,OOo
is0o'0l.. 309o0oOOO 427 100000 335,000,OOo
1891 '02..... Oh 10000 636OO0,OOO 5l3.ooO'ooo
1t is obvious that the Departments estimate
for the yield of 1883 must have been far too high,
%t,afa nd 1,n
York price is but 81 100000, though the bare
cost of transportation TO New-York must have been
at least Is cents, or AIS. 10000 bushels over
$50, 100000. The crop was probably worth on the
farm considerably less than that of 1890. But by
any reckoning the crop Of 1901 has been by far
the most profitable raised, because IT was the
largest BY hundred million bushels, and the price
was sustained by foreign demand altogether I'M
rrocedonted w. NJ q.