Vermont phÅ“nix. [volume] (Brattleboro, Vt.) 1834-1955, 1892-11-04
THE ELECTION OUTLOOK.
Review Of the Situation in the Doubtful
States.

And II Statement of the t.rounds on
which Republicans Base their Predic-
tiOn Of Success.
TO those who have followed carefully the
drift OF the campaign, it is evident that
there has been a marked change in the
feeling about the outcome of the election
during the past ten days. The Democrats
have unmistakably grown frightened and
uneasy, while the Republicans are cores
pondingly hopeful and confident This
change has come principally from the
Developments about the canvass in New
York, Connecticut and Indiana. With the
change i'm feeling about these three doubt
full states comes a corresponding change in
regard to the situation throughout the
North. The Democrats themselves CON
cede that Russell cannot be reelected in
Massachusetts, and there is no doubt that
all the great states of the West will be
found in their proper place in the Repub-
lican column on the night of election day
In New York it is the result of the
registration which closed last week which
has wrought the change of feeling. With
out reproducing the detailed figures which
are given, the fact is, in brief, that in the
Republican districts i'm New York city and
throughout the state, the registration has
largely increased, while in the Democratic
districts it has not come up to the ex-
pectations. For illustration, to quote from
the statement furnished by the Republican
National committee:
In New York city, below Forteth street. or in
that part of the town whrr,, the Democrats arr.
specially strong the registration is 1901 less than
in 1883. Above Forteth street the registration
tins year stands 1863, against 1222iI, an in
crease of 1,OIg. or ~ II per cent. The entire
increase in registration, therefore, is above
Fortieth street. Comparing the registration by
assembly districts. as at present situated, with the
total vote cast IN 1891 in those districts. the fact
appears that in the districts casting heavy Demo
cratic maloritieS the increase of the registration
over the vote cast is about 25 per cent. while the
increase in the districts giving small Democratic
! or Republican plurality il about 31 per cent The
first ten assembly districts Of the city are heavily
Democrat ic. their ma ioritieS ranging the vote
cast in 1891 from 3OOO to 500 In those districts
the percentage of increase of registration this
year over the vote cast in 1891 is only - 9d per
| cent
Six weeks ago Tammany gave out the pre-
dcton that the registration in New York city
would amount to 33o. 900. That was conservative
| estimate. Ii allowed for considerable falling off
/ from what would be- a full registration. On the
basis Of the natural increase over the registration
in lsSN there should now be on the registry lists Of
| the city 3l2.OoO names But there are only 3D9 $50
| and the loss. as the analysis above given clearly
| shows, lies in the Democratic districts"
\ comparison of the registry with the
| systematic hOuse-to-house canvass made
two weeks ago by the Republican National
committee at cost of S75 900, shows that
substantially the full Republican vote of
the city is on the rolls Allowing for all
| possible loss it is reasonably certain that
| 115, 900 Republican votes will be cast, as
compared with 100000 in 1888. The full
vote of the city will not be many more than
! pol 900. If the Democrats obtain 5S.j per
cent of the total estimated they will be
doing uncOmmonly well. This will give
them a vote of 10000, and a plurality of
$1,000. This for New York city The
Republicans are confident that the total
Democratic plurality below Harlem bridge
cannot exceed 10000 to 5000. Four
years ago the Republicans came down to
the bridge with 5000 plurality, and they
will do better this year. Registration in
the Democratic strongholds of Albany and
Troy shows a heavy loss for the Democracy.
The discovery of the contemplated frauds
in Albany was death-blow to Democratic
prospects there. Registration in the
country districts in the state is almost
universally favorable to the Republicans.
1t is this state of things, thus summarized,
which makes the Republicans confident OF
success in the Empire state.