The Salt Lake herald. [volume] (Salt Lake City [Utah]) 1870-1909, 1892-07-15
A Conservative Estimate OF the Chances Of
Both Decentralization Not Near
as Strong as in 1888.
HrRAnn RrRrAr.
= III = : y - =
Cor. 18th ana @ SITS, n. W,
WASHINGTON, d. O.. July T.

autumn. cast their
ELECTORAL VOTE FOR Mr.. CLEVELAND.
The control Of these states is more neces-
sary TO Democratic success than it is to
Republican success. Without New York,
as between himself and President Harri-
son. Mr. Cleveland can hardly hope to win.
Four years ago his entire electoral vote
was l6s Should he again carry the same
states their representation in the electoral
college will. under the present apporticn-
ment, be increased TO It's. A majority Of
the electoral college this year is 22s. Add
ing seven votes in Michigan which the
Democrats may secure owing to the new
method OF choosing electors, Cleveland
win have lS2 votes.
This leaves him forty-one short OF the
needed majority If New York gave him
her thirty-six votes he would still need
five additional, which he may secure BY
carrying Wisconsin or Indiana. He must,
however, have New York. But for the
hope Of carrying that state the Democratic
outlook would be q barren one, except In
the event that the third party should de-
velop sufficient strength TO throw the
election into the House.
It is not reasonable to expect that any
Democrat in public life would do less than
PREDICT cLEvELASD's ELECTION.
Their manner Of reaching that result,
however, is interesting Representative
John Dewitt Warner Of New York, for
example, does not see how MIR. Cleveland
can lose the Empire state. Mr.. Warner Is
not famboyant person or one who is US
ually disposed to take rose colored view
Of matters in general But where Mr..
Cleveland is concerned his conclusions are
at all times decidedly optimistic.
il Mr. Warmers opinion the disap-
pointed ofIice-seekers cut no small figure in
reducing MIR. Cleveland's vote in 1883. Mr..
Harrison naturally benefited by their
hostility This year the situation is re-
versed. and Mr.. Warner now figures that
Harrison win be the loser and Cleveland
the gamer as q result Of the
DISAPPOINTMENT IN THE REPUBLICAN RANKS
growing out Of the failure to secure Office.
The mugwumps, he argues, were also a
large factor in Mr.. Clsveland's defeat
Apparently, Mr.. Warner Is not overly par
tial to the mugwump element, for to quote
his own language, there is no denying
that many Of the fifteen or twenty thou
sand mugwumps IN New York state ex-
pect so much OF g man that they are disap-
pointed at his performances.
''Such, I" still further TO quote Mr.. War
ner, was their attitude toward Mr.
Cleveland in ISss; and largely through the
state especially IN Brooklyn, the men who
bad left their party in 1884, deserted Mr..
Cleveland in 1883. But Mr.. Harrison's ad-
minintration seems millenial by compari-
son and they viii DO almost unanimous
against the Republican candidate this cau-
paign"
AN other things being equal, Mr.. War
ner has by securing control of the mug
wump vote again, figured cut a safe
majority Tor Mr.. Cleveland IN New York
state But he is not satisfied with that.
There is another element from which he
expects Mr.. Cleveland to draw largely.
and thatis
THhs GERMAE-AAiERIcAN VOTE.
In past YEARS this vote ives largely Repub-
/ lean. Mr.. Warner insists that 1t has lat
Rerly grown 80 strongly Democratic that
-fourths Of it viii this year support
MIR. Cleveland. Upon this subject Mr.
arner grows positively enthusiastic and
pat he says ought therefore to be given
n his own words.
''Not merely" he adds, ''is this change a
aggressive one, Of which MIR. Cleveland
'$will have the advantage, but he is person
ally SO popular among the voters Of Ger
hos -
number Of Democrats VIII be Joined. IN
voting for him. BY many of the remainder
who still consider themselves Republican.
Upon the authority Of gentlemen so dis
tinguished as Mr.. Ottendorfer and Mr.
Carl Schurz / believe that in the late
trend CT the German vote alone Mr. Cleve-
land is at least twenty five thousand
stronger in New York state than he was
four years ago.
Mr.. Warner frankly admits that New
York IS at the best a comparatively close
state and he does hot blind himself TO the
fact that the next four months may contain
DIsAeREBABLE SURPRISES
for both parties. HE thinks the canvass
viii be hotly fought, but he assures me
that never before have Democratic pros
pects aFrsAred 80 bright to him SO early in
the Gsmpaign, and to his mind all that re-
mains TO insure victory is an aggressive
and vigiiant contest all along the line.
The regularity with which New Jersey
casts her electoral vote every four years
for the Democratic presidential nominee
encourages the voters Of the party to be-
lioxe that the state is as safely Democratic
as Missouri or Tennessee. DR.. Thomas
Dunn English, who represents the Newark
district In Congress, is an old and ex-
perienced observer OF political events.
BE regards the political conditions at
present as so chaotic in general that II the
election were to be held at any time with
ia the next thirty days neither Of the can
cidates would secure majority OF the
votes and the House would be called upon
TO settle the contest As q good Democrat
however, be believes that
CLEVELAND WILL DEVELOP STRENGTH
as the campsign progresses and that Har-
rison will steadily fall CT.
Ia his judgment the people Of New
Jersey have become educated against high
protective duties. The people, he says,
are satisfied with the handicapof revenue
duties provided raw materials he admitted
free. Should this Interpretation be put
on the tariff plank in the platform by Mr.,
Cleveland 10 bis letter Of acceptance, other
things being equal he win, IN DR.. Enel;sh's
opinion. carry New Jersey BY from five TO
ten Thousand majority. In that case he
VIII carry Connecticut
DR. English frankly admits that both