Huntsville gazette., 1892-05-07
THE SITUATION BRIGHT.
Auguries That Point to a Great Repub-
lican Victory.


lican Victory.
From the east comes light. Little
Rhoda is large enough to deal the free
traders stunning blow. Hope that
Cleveland and tariff reform" will carry
eastern states is buried under the
republican plurality of 2,079 in small
state where the democrats had plu-
rality of 4,4l9 in 1882
In the light of recent events presi-
Dental estimate of some value can be
made. The election under the new APP
portionment gives to the south 159
electoral votes, to the east III. and to
the west 1853. The total being 444, with
223 yet to eject, the south must retain
all its own votes and secure 81 votes
from the north. But if the south car
ries New York with Sc votes, New Jer-
sey with 10, Connecticut with and In
diana with Is, or 81 northern votes in
all, it will still be in the minority if il
loses even one state as small as West
Virginia with votes or Florida with 4.
These being the conditions of the
problem, what do recent events indi-
cate? Tariff reform does not prove a
charm to conjure with in manufacture
ing state After the democrats had
been so greatly aided in Rhode Island by
the addition of $4,000 new voters since
1888 that they carried state and con-
gressional elections for three years,
they yet find that free wool and Mr..
Cleveland arc powerless to avert de-
feat. What can they hope from Con-
necticut, where the last full vote gave
Mr.. Cleveland only 336 plurality, or
from Massachusetts,, where there has
been nothing like full vote since he
was beaten by 1000? In these and
other New England states no great ad-
dition to the suffrage has reinforced the
democrats. Connecticut can be claimed
as doubtful, but the chances are against
the democrats in any case, and with any
candidate, while other New England
states can be classed as republican.
Mr.. Hills disgraceful behavior and
the recent town elections have made
New York more hopeful for the repub-
licans than it was four years ago, when
the last full vote gave Mr.. Harrison IA,
373 plurality. Even New Jersey is in
such a state of mind about recent
partisan swindles and the coal monop-
oily that it might be won. Nor in view
of republican victories and gains in
Evansville. Columbus, Springfield, Ill.
and many other western cities, can In
diana be counted less hopeful for the
republicans than it was four years ago,
while in Ohio, Illinois, Michigan and
Wisconsin free silver will hurt more
than it will help the democrats, and
free wool will not help them. Iowa is
the only western state this side of the
Pacific coast which has given fuller
vote since 1888 or 1889 than before.
There prohibition turned the state cleo
tion of 1891 against the republicans by
1876 plurality for one candidate, and it
may therefore be reckoned doubtful
with more apparent reason than lndi-
ana. But in Kansas, Nebraska and
Minnesota even the alliance craze at its
worst did not bring out a full
vote, or prevent republican sue
cess. Montana is close, but in all
the Pacific states republicans have
gained in strength since 1888.
If Connecticut, New York, New Jer-
sey, Indiana, Iowa and Montana be all
classed as questionable, with their SO
electoral votes, it follows that the dem
ocrats might elect if they could carry
all these and prevent a loss of more
than IS votes at the south. But the
chance that all these northern states
can be carried by the democrats seems
decidedly smaller than the chance that
IS southern votes. West Virginia and
Virginia alone have that number, and a
third ticket would almost certainly
draw from the democrats several times
the one vote in one hundred in Virginia,
or the one vote in twenty in West Vir.
ginia, which would turn the scale
against that party. Indeed, there ap-
pears more probability of North Caro-
lima giving republican plurality by aid
of the alliance than of Iowa giving a
democratic plurality by aid of the same
third party. These three southern
states, with 90 electoral votes, would
suffice to defeat the democrats even il
they could get the SO electoral votes
mentioned from the north.
But there is one other thing to be OBJ
served. The same democratic party i:
not going to be able this year to carry
New York and Connecticut, with a can
didate against free silver, and Indiana
Iowa and Montana with a candidate
for free silver. One road or the othel
must be chosen; both cannot be. If Mr.
Cleveland could carry Connecticut anc
New York he could not carry western
state. If candidate could be found
who would delight the more-mone,
fanatics enough to carry Iowa and Mon
tana, that candidate would break hi
neck in New York and Connecticut
Riding either OF the two horses is per
missible. This year NO man can rid
hay b.-Sl RI n