The record-union., 1892-06-06
COMMERCIAL.
The StatisticaI Position of Wheat Does
Not Warrant Low Prices.
"A Half Holiday at San Francisco Causes
Light Trading-Sacrament
Market.

warrant the low range of prices for the cereal
ruling in our market While it is admitted
that the crop outturn on the Pacific Coast will,
without some unforeseen unfavorable eli
matte changes, be larger this year than
any year since 1SS2, still it is but
drop In the bucket of the worlds requirement.
viewing 1t from this standpoint then, the de
preston is largely local, and a recovery in
values can be looked forward to with a feeling
OF considerable confidence.
The United States Department of Agricult-
ure estimates the worlds wheat crop in 1891
at 2,352 ,537, ,497 bushels Bulgaria and eau
cusus were reported for the first time, allotted
as follows: North America, 669, 3,672;
South America, 47,256, 500; Europe, 1,161,-
o1,716; Asia, 399, ,7o7 ,O07; Africa, 40, $685.
996; Australasia, 33, ,S74, sos. Leaving out
Bulgaria and Caucasus, the yield was 2,23S,-
PAS, ,0S1 bushels, against total crop of 2, ,2O3,-
$50, ,552 bushels in 1890. an increase of 34,-
355, 5,529 bushels. This increase is quite small,
when 1t is considered that for the three years
ending with 1890, the worlds wheat reserve
was reduced by 341, 900, 600 bushels, making
1t fully l, 100000 bushels less than nothing.
The total wiping out of the worlds wheat re-
serve would have caused famine prices had it
taken place some fifteen years ago, but now it
IS largely neutralized by steam and electricity
countries having maturing crops.
The worlds Wheat crop for 1892 is esti-
mated, at this writing, as follows, in bushels:
North America, 56O, ,OOO, 900; South America,
50,000,000; Europe, 1,250,OOO,O 900; Asia,
35O,000,0OO; Africa, 100000; Austral-
asia, 80, 100000; total, 2,2S7, 100000 BUSH
els,against 2,352, ,537, ,496 bushels in 1891. In
making our estimates for this year We took
the more favorable crop reports, so that il in
this month the weather should be uniavorable,
at home or abroad, the total will be subjected
TO a considerable reduction.
High prices in the last halt of 1891 drew
out liberal supplies in each civilized country,
and, consequently, the old-cTop Wheat in
farmers hands is estimated to be next to moth
ing, while the stocks in public warehouses GO
not average more than they did at the CORE
spending time in 1891. Accepting this as
correct, then, with a smaller crop in 1892
then was harvested in 1891, the statistical
position Of the cereal is in favor Of farmers,
and it will be only question of time when
values will appreciate
The bears and the ship ring IN our market
ignore the favorable statistical position Of
Wheat, and place in the foreground the pros
pective large crop on this coast While we
confidently expect in California surplus
available for export of not less than ], ,05O, 900
tOAASI anu luSIGtiSS III W VIZ
gon of fully ten per cent. over the 1891 crop,
yet there is nothing to indicate that ships Will
command a higher average for outward char
ters in the season of 1S92-93 than they did in
the season now drawing to a close. The GER
tainty of a shortage in the Wheat crop of the
central States and possibility that the grade
will be correspondingly poorer there, is very
strong probability that overland shipments
from east OF the Cascade range OF mountains
Will assume that degree of importance which
they held in the season Of 1S9O-91.
In the latter season, it is but fair to say,
there was q remarkable scarcity of rolling
stock which is not so severely felt now as il
was then, 10 move the surplus to tidewater.
This scarcity naturally worked against free
shipments of wheat to coast ports in Oregon
and Washington, and caused more grain to
be sent eastward in cars that otherwise would
have been sent back empty. While it is not
At all probable there will be any marked
scarcity of cars to move the crop to tidewater.
yet the markets in the Central States max
and probably will offer better prices. With
better prices obtainable, large quantities will
be shipped eastward, which would relieve the
Pacific Coast markets by taking out Just so
much less which otherwise would have been
exported by sea. Even without this relief we
do not see at this writing any reason for ex-
pecIlng any shortage IN the supply OF ton
mage on this coast with which to market the
surplus. We have in port, engaged and dis
engaged, larger supply than at the CORE
spending time in 1891, while the tonnage on
its way, which is less than was on its way in
June, 1891, is beng steadily added TO. Aside
frOm the above, the carry over of old in this
State, Oregon and Washington will probably
not be as large as it was in 1891, when it was
less than at the corresponding time for years
past-PacIfic Rural Press.