New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1892-03-14
U'HEi /.
TIE ENORMOUS sUPPLY-wAs THE CROP REPORT
TOO Low?

TIE ENORMOUS sUPPLY-wAs THE CROP REPORT
TOO Low?
TO the Editor Of The Tribune.
Sir: 1t seems no longer possible 70 reconcile
the figures Of the Agricultural Department re-
galdins wheat with each other More wheat was
found in the country March than there could
have been unless o. the Department estimates Of
crops prior 10 1891 were too small or u TIE
Department estimates of consumption were too
large or 81 the Departments estimate Of the crop
of SOL is below the truth, or a. the Departments
reports of wheat in farmers hands erroneous.
The extent of the discrepancy to be
explained is shown when stocks IN
sight year ago and this year are compared.
March |, 1891, the Department reported in
farmers hands ll2,O00,OOO bushels. and there
23,250, 093 bushels in visible supply, while
Bradstrccts" reported 15,sj2,437 bushels more
in warehouses and elevators and at other points
in the United States. including the Pacific Coast.
making in all lJl l02, $50 bushels. To this, add
the Department estimate Of the yield OF 1881,
namely, GIL 100000 bushels and we have 762'-
$50, $50 Dnshels as the total supply. The De
partment states that exports during the year were
200, 900, 600 bubhels and while the Treasury re-
port for February was not published, its previous
reports have shown that sol 944 bushels, Hour
included had gone out in eleven months ending
with January, and trade reports show that ABOUT
100000 bushels went out in February. DE-
Quoting 206,000,00 bushels for export, 5oo,-
600 900 bushels for consumption. and 5G,Ooo-
000 bushels for seed-all these being the figures
Of the Departmental all, j62,OOO.OOO bushels.
there would remain 2OO,sO0000 bushels in the
country March l, 1892. But the Department re-
ports III 100000 bushels i'll farmers HANDS,
there were 4l,l10,2sj bushels in visible supply,
and BradStreets' reported at the other points
included q year ago within the United STATES
alone. 22,712,345 bushels making 234,s@@,63o
bushels in sight or "a, 600 900 bushels more than
there could be if official reports had been correct.
The Department explains that 27,o0o 600 bush
els came into sight after March l last year on
account Of the unprecedented squeezing OF all
sorts Of reserves" 1t is not true that the squeez-
ing of reserves was unprecedented; on the con-
Irary, the quantity of wheat III visible supply
and at other known points was larger July /,
1891 than il was July l, 1890. But this makes
no difference if the . 100000 bushels came INTO
sight from previous crops that quantity was Id
the country March /, not in visible supply, ana
the Department asserts not in farmers hands
Bradstreets" reports show, moreover, that 1t was
not at the many hundred other points from which
that journal obtained figures. Where was II,
then? The Department suggests In the always
uncountcd stocks Of flour between mill ana mouth
and small uncountcd stocks between the farmers
granaries and the visible supply But tins In
wolves a laundering confusion Of thought. Does
ANYBODY actually believe that fhe uncounted stocks
Of -four are smaller now than they were in March
of last wear? Or that the uncounted stocks be-
tween farmers and elevators are now smaller than
in March of last year? If not, the wheat that
came out Of those stocks when reserves were
squeezed last June has gone back into them. ana,
in fact many millions bushels more, for such
uncounted stocks unquestonably larger now
than year ago. as all the counted stocks are
larger.
Thus it will be seen that tue question ~ mar
royed IN this: Were the two rporte Of wheat
in farmers hands correct, or WAS the report Of
wheat yield III sol TOO small? 10 does not help
in the least 10 imagine that 27,OOO,oo0 oushes
or any other quantity came from uncounted stores
last year. since such stores. whether large OF
small are at all events larger now than year
ago. The official reported supplies, and the
counted wheat al many hundred points, less the
officially reported consumption and exports do not
leave enough for the officially reported stock in
farmers hands, and the quantities at'the many
hundred points The consumption can hatdy
have been half a bushcl less per capita thdli
usual. Either the estimates oil wheat III farmers
hands or the estimate Of the crop OF 1871 must
be in error -, ,.
There is no reason TO suppose that the farmers
have been eXaggerating their stocks thih STdI.
They may have reported their stocks 700 low Iat,o
wear but the report then seemed to the DcPaI-
nent conclusive proof Of the accuracy OF lie own
previous estimates, and the Official report Vi
March ] SAID - ,.. hoe b.cn
The result this year, In former year.; u.s., D e
~ -. "a he surprise 70 those engaged In the
consolidation and to furnish IIel4tao% c' G' " y;
the substantial accuracy OF VI" result no . ~, e.,
-. haIance -hect show such agreement nat some III
nocents Of the commercial boards nave III sMae Nit
,lIctv assumed that tie reserves were obtained DN
1gIring UP tie other items OF dlst1Ddub "'u uoD"'
inc ,l.nir sun from the aggregate ol supply
~, snaer AT the innocence OF commercial DodTus
docs nat sound well when there appears az ciLoi
~ . : 600 600 bushels in the accounts Oh INC III
nartrnrnt itself or "a, 0OOOOO II the returns Hoi
hundreds of other points are included DuI we
norrcsnondcnc4 of figures last year was evidence
-, ,Lers as IL WIS 10 the Department, that the
returns from farmers were IN the main coiicCV'
II Iyould be wiser for the department. 10 adnl',
what seems the more probable explanation, ,na.
its crop report Of 1891 put tfe quanuIy u FIJI,
Considerably TOO low. This is the more likely
Lec.man State boards and authorities nave III d
number of cases published estimates cohSluefapN
in excess Of the Departments esul"" io INV"
States. . .h oro,, ~ 1so1
,ras not G12 900. 900 bushels, but more nearly
cSc ono o00 busLcls in that case the estimate
~ acreage needs revision The iaGt STANDS Ouo
that the country has on hand more IMAM @o4,ooV,
n00 bushels wheat, besides all the TouT Ill nv, me
country and the wheat in uncountcu stochS' INC
consnm1tion for food and seed III the remaining
Sorr ,nnnths Of the crop year will be 12l,OOOUOo
husGcls This would leave ll3,sOVVUV Pusnci'
for export in the four months W. VI W.
NicUINIS1S URGED TO ORGANIZE
Chicago March l3.-There Is trouble brewing between
o,tt lgip pm n