The Roanoke times. [volume] (Roanoke, Va.) 1890-1895, 1892-10-21
a PROPHETIC VISION.
WALTER WELLMAN UNFoLDs THE.
FUTURE AS 1T APPEARS TO HIM.
An Impartial Review OF the Present Po-
Iitical Situation. with an Estimate CT tho
Probable Results I'm observation-disclosures
Conditions In the West and South.
Especial Correspondence

Especial Correspondence
WAsHINGToN, Oct. WHO will win
the presidency next month? Is it to be
Cleveland or Harrison2 The man does
not live who is smart enough to tell be-
fore the votes are counted. He may
think he knows, and may confidently
assert his belief and give his reasons,
but he is only guessing at it. AS rule
the man who knows it all simply voices
his wish in uttering his predictions.
There is lots of humbug in politics.
but the biggest imposition is that which
the rabid partisan puts upon himself
Because he is Il Republican or Demo-
crat and wants Harrison or Cleveland
elected, ergo his party is all perfection
and prosperity, and his candidate is
sure to win. OF course there are "a
tional men who do not permit their
party love to run away with their judg-
ment-men who like to sit down and
discuss the situation with calm judg-
ment and clear discernment
take it for granted that you, reader,
are this sort of IL man. And having had
better opportunities than some of you to
know what is going on in the political
world-having Travelled during the last
three weeks in New York, New England
and four or five of the southern states
having met and talked with prominent
and sensible men of both parties from
all sections OF the country-I want to
give YOU my impressions as to the prob
able result of the great campaign. |
shall Go SO very frankly.
/ see no WARRANT for tha ba1iaf tbo+
there is to be II tidal wave in any direc-
ton. Changes from one party to the
other are always going on, but I see no
more of them in this campaign than
were seen in its predecessors. In my
Judgment the states which have hereto
fore been 'close" will be "close" now.
1t is at the same time true that there is
a much greater number of these "close"
states than ever before.
In my last letter l gave the number
of these doubtful states at eighteen, with
ITS electoral votes. Now, with another
week in which to gain information,
would add TO rather than take from that
list. This remarkable increase in the
number of doubtful states over past
campaigns is due principally to four
causes-to wit:
First-General apathy among the
voters CT the north, producing listless
campaign, and due largely to the fact
that both candidates are old, having
run one of them once and the other twice
already.
Second-Slow but steady growth of
the tariff reform sentiment among the
agriculturalists of the northwest and
the town people of New England.
Third-The peculiar conditions exist
ing in the south, where the Democratic
party is dividing into factions and the
white people into castes-poor whites
against the aristocracy, and country
people against town people-and where
the rival castles are bidding for the COL
ored vote because it holds the balance
of power.
Fourth-Presence of third party,
which is weakening the Democrats in
the south and the Republicans in the
west, and which also, by means of flu
sion In various states, is upsetting party
lines and the calculations of the poll
ticians.
Reducing all these and other cur
rents of public opinion to two, think
can see northern drift toward Denoc-
racy and southern drift toward Re
publicanism. AT the approaching cleo
ton expect to see small break in the
solidity of the Democratic south, and
corresponding break in the solidity of
the Republican west. 1t is we'll that
these threatened changes come, or prom
Use to come, together. When they do
come-and if they come not now they
surely will in the near future-sectional
lines will be obliterated, the country
will become more truly national, and
the tyrannical dominance of the Empire
State in the national politics of both par
ties will reach an end-a result sincerely
wished for by all patriotic men, ire
spective of party affiliations
In this letter l wish to discuss in de-
tail some of the eighteen doubtful states.
Connecticut is in my judgment the only
doubtful state in New England. In
Massachusetts there is an evident
drift toward Democracy, but the change
will not come this year The re-
serve Republican vote is likely to be
brought out, and look to see the state
go for Harrison by about $4,000 ma
jority. New Hampshire is close, but
probably safely Republican by from
1900 to 1000.
Connecticut is really doubtful. In
1880 Garfield carried it by 1900, and
though the Democrats have always won
since that year their pluralities have
been very slender-l,2 1854 in 1884, 33G in
1883 and only 26 at the state election of
1880. This year the Republicans are
perhaps stronger than usual, because
the Mckinley act helps the tobacco