The morning call., 1892-10-18
THE WHEAT DEFICIT.

Figures collected in England give the
probable surplus of wheat available for ex-
port from food exporting countries. during
the season OF 1928. at about 2o0,000.000
bushels. and the probable wants OF food
importing countries at about 245,000. 600
bushels. This calculation does not take the
United States into account. The food ex-
porting countries included are India, Russia,
Hungary, the Balkan States. Roumana
aud Servis. 1t does not make allowance
for exports from Australia. Canada or Ar
gentine II assumes the wants Of England
to be I25. 600 bushels.
AS compared with last year the harvest
of 1892 shows Il diminished yield in England
and Italy, and an increased yield in Russia
and France. The Russian crop was ia
many places an absolute failure In 1891;
this wear it is said TO be nearly up TO the
average. but the outbreak of the cholera in
the valleys OF Southwestern Russia may
make a difference. The French crop is re-
ported to be 100000 600 bushels TO supply
wants Of 3S5, 000 600 bushels. The yield per
acre has risen TO sixteen and half bushels,
which, it seems, is regarded with some CON-
placency ia France. The English crop is
said TO be II per cent below the normal, a
much lighter crop than last year. The
British farmers are complaining loudly be-
cause the price does not rise with the
diminution Of supply.
THE CALL published a few days ago
statement of the crop of California, when
shows cur farmers have nothing to complain
of. The three great wheat-gIowing States
of the eSt"-Minnesota and the
two Dakotas-show this year large shrink
age from 1891. Their total crop is estl-
mated at 100, coo, 600 bushels, as against 160,-
600, 600 bushels in 1891. and 95.0O0.000 bush
els in 1890 The decline this year Is
ascribed to late seeding, wet spring and
unusually disastrous storms during the
summer. 1t appears that the crop ID the
Dakotas Is always uncertain. In 1880 the
crop of South Dakota was almost destroyed
by drought; the people had TO be fed from
Chicago In the river States, where win
ter wheat is superseding spring wheat the
crop this year will be large, larger in Ne
braska ana perhaps elsewhere than last
year. But the spring wheat States will
hardly show as large a product as they did
in 1891.
1t is not likely that, on the whole. the
United States Will have larger surplus
for EXPORT than they had in 1892, If they
have IS large. So long as wheat remains at
present prices the demand Tor home con-
sumption will always grow with the
growth of population. Some economists
have gone so far as TO figure out the date at
which the export Of American wheat to
Europe must cease. This is Of course a
mere speculative theory, for home con-
sumption and acreage viii both be gov
erned by price. If wheat should come to
be worth cents pound in the distributing
markets. the people Of the rural districts
would eat more corn and less wheat, and
simultaneously the acreage planted in
wheat would increase. But so long as
prices remain near their present level the
quantity available for export will naturally
decrease with the years. One of the most
obvious Of impending changes will be the
substitution of Chicago for Liverpool as
the governing wheat market Of the world.
When the United States raised large sur
plus whiei. had to be marketed at Liver
pool that city made the price for the whole
crop. As home consumption oyertakes
production the foreign demand will be less
influential. and the price will be made by
the largest distributing market wherever