The Atlanta constitution. [volume] (Atlanta, Ga.) 1885-19??, 1892-12-13
ALL. ABOUT COTTON.
TIEWS OF MR.. SHEPPERDSON ON
THE CONDITION or THE STABLE.
Cause in the Advance OF the Price Due Large
ly to the Purchase OF Futures. but
Very Short Crop Certain.

review: of the cotton situation was prepared
for the United Press by Alfred L. 8.
Shepperson, editor of The Cotton I'attor,
and All acknowledged authority on matters
pertaining to cotton.
Tue present cotton crop was grown upon
an acreage materially less than The previous
crop and upon soil exhausted by tie eroE-
nous yields Il two successive years. fEe
agricultural depa -ment estimated ,Ge re-
duct0n IN acreage as IS IL per cent. aud
official and reliable lni,steadvicos convince
ne that tie departments estimate IS sub
stantially correct. The reduction IL the use
Of fertilizers WAS thiltytiye to forty per
cent.
Weather conditions have been favorable.
Or soiIe time II nd was prepared Tor plant
ing Untii The growth Of the plai.t was ended
by killing, 1rosts. There has been 80 ele-
MeAt Of the situation upon ;'hir'I TO Ease a
reasonable expectation of even q !iotic::tte
crop as compared with thos" OF tlt laS{ !eW
years. The crop was backward, and on
October 10Th was generally iJt~"n 10 iifty
Gays later than last year. l\liii'% fro>ld
were quite general from October 2ut::. ard
caused a loss of :}H}.tasl bales or more. III
the Memphis district alone II has been
stated that 100,1tJ bales were destroyed ty
fosts.
''Advices from official and trustworthy
private sources leave no room tGF Gonht
lat the Weld per acre IS very inUcn TESS
lhan last season. 'iEe most Untdv"E"i,ie
accounts from merchants who are III Inc
closest touch with planters and many Jet
terS have Recently been received ny 100 ire III
prominent planters throughout the soa,i,
and they fully confirm the report OF d Ic-
duced yield which comes jEem ";htE
sources. In many sections t!e crop IS
turning out TO lie much Tess thdii Was GA
Iectcd Il month OF so ago.
Inu siaur,sge -,.Ure Apparent.
~. the gathering Of the crop Progresses
and auproachcs c0!nplct ION lis shortage be
comes more apparent Up TO THIS time hast
year the tendency Of merchants ana l'!Ihi-
rre was to underestimate the cr"p. IL4S
year the general tendency has been exactly
in the other direction ans: their mas h"eh 'i1
incrpasiu" DISPOSITION TO reduce ESTIMATES
Our friend, Mr.. Henry Men, q New W
leans. who can make more ;-UeS*eS at me
size Of one crop than any one ! N! 10y, -
issued an estimate ON NoFt:Hh'r ~ -
II 100 900 bales exclusive OF ire oH1 EVt-
ton remaining in the interior ii"in ilie l.P-
yious crop. This would make the estimate
rcprcsent commercial trcp OF ailou! ',"F'.-
coo bales. We hardly Gigestcd tins est
mic when he issued another one reducing
his estimate to G,5000W bales h't, !
understand also excludes tie old cotton ana
would therefore, be equivalent TO an tS.Illi;ttc
Inv him of a commercial crop 81 '!b"d' ~ 80
coo bales. A great tGn 81 r?ta't The crnn
Of 1S9I-92 and do not THINK We ..; aG' an
yieI,l Of that season was oNcr S'o'0''N0
o'''' six ana a Half Million Haies'
wishing to he very conservative "a "tI WV,
assume the yield per acre 10 aNef"se ' lw r
cent less than last season, upon 'th ''CiI 49,
1G ~ pcr cent less than last year; .i Tx
,vnnid make the Weld this season O,o-l,t oo
halps for the old cotton left III the interior
from last season and which VIII unuoupi1
ed,y be marketed this season and 1t VIII
about 6.5W.GOO bales. MS "ou,G ~
%5tSOOO bales less than the crop of last
season II, va
card 800 900 as the maximum CT the crop
and it. may fail considerably short of TINS
NE urcs,i.sra;f Nv errpt-is about what II was
in 1SS4-SJ and the commercial crop OF that
season was 3,I06,000 bales. Some persons
think the acreage Row IS equal 10 '!ae pl
1886 or about one million acres more
than in 1SS4-S5. The crop of 1SSJ-SG was
65I5 100 bales. The crop condition Gi DC
tober 1st. as reported by the department of
Agriculture was one and a half points lower
than at the same time in 1881. am. about
four and one-half points lower Ihan III 1920.
Since September 1st, the cotton o. this
crop which has come into sight is l.lHo. 800
bales less than during the same time last
wear From now to the end OF the season
the movement can very easily be over I,uVj,
600 bales less than during last season. SO
viii crop of 6JOO,Uo.
As to the Price.
Now for the price. For two seasons
very low prices have ruled, lower than most
men have ever seen. They were caused by
the pressure OF enormous stocks III the
world resulting from our two immense crops
of lS3O-0l and 1912. On September LIST
middinG upland cotton was worth here {
Is cents: on the 24th of September, 1t ad-
vauced to { 90 and continued TO advance
until 10 cents was reached Oh NoFeh4oef
25th.
'lbcre has since been a recession of one
fourth of IA cent. This great advance of
nearly three cents, was due largely TO rur-
chases of futures by MERCHANTS ana t;Il-
talists as II speculation. They saw the price
generation, and probably far below the cost
Of speculation. They realized lntutiVeiy
that the growing crop would he short one,
for the very air was full OF such lh"icl-
lions, and bought futures freely. Spot cot
ton followed the advance i'll futures. Spin
ners contributed very little to the advance
Our mills held large stocks of cotton. having
bought during each of the two prevcIs sea-
sons considerably more cotton than }h"T con-
Esumcd They were generally, therefore,
in condition to keep out OF an advancing
market and did so 70 date they have taken
from the crop, 100000 bales less than for
the correspondents. time last season. Neither
have European spinners helped mHGGh III
crra ting the advance. Speculation AWAY
Anticipates results. Coalitions aife< ing
the values of staples are discounted long IN
advance.
Several months ago, i said in q letter
which got into print, that the crop would be
q short one and when the public reached
the conclusion that it might not exceed
100000 bales, they would not wait for
the last bale to be counted, but would put
UP prices at once. Exactly this thing hap
pened. American spinners and European
spnners who have to buy ere long ana
purchases would be a great support to the
market. Prices, therefore, have been I'M
duly depressed by large stocks of cotton in
all cotton centers, but a small stock coming
in will have the effect to restore the stock
to tN,ir usual proportions.
while there Will, of course, be fuctua-
tons, l do not think prices will again reach
the low figures OF the past two seasons, bat
that about the present prices Will be main
tanned l think hey are warranted by the
statistic position and by trade positions.
AT the beginning Of the season, the
visible supply of cotton in the world was
$4,000 more than il the previous year. 1t
is now 1O5, 600 bales less than last year.
This change of Oy,r 4 million bales IN posi-
ton, has marked Il wonderful change in the
view Of MANY DpOUle in regard to the va iue