The morning call., 1892-08-17
THE WHEAT CROP.

Some uneasiness is beginning to be felt on
the subject of this years wheat crop. Last
year at this time no serious apprehensions
were entertained. It was not till later on
that the practical failure of the Russian
crop was ascertained, and that diminished
Weld was reported from the Danubian
countries, simultaneously with falling off
in the French harvest. The experience of
that season is being turned to account this
year by an early investigation of the
prospects.
From Russia, where the deficiency was
most marked last year, reports come of
alternate droughts and heavy rainfalls,
which presage wheat and rye crop per-
haps better than those Of last year, but still
below the average. Tie Russian reports
are varying, and the facts VIII not be known
till the thrashing season is over. From the
Danube come stories of light yield; how
light 1t is yet too soon TO tell. Bulgaria
promises very short crop. and Roumania
and Hungary are both behind. The har-
vest in France bids fair to be more abun-
dant than that Of last year. But that OF
Italy is reported as 10 per cent less than in
1891, and in Great Britain TIE wheat acre
age has been so largely reduced that
diminution Of 100000 bushels is pre-
dicted. Various circumstances have COM
bined to reduce the crop of India; falling
off equal TO $1,000 600 bushels seems not un-
lIke,y.S
Turning now to this country, II must be
remembered that the crop of 1891 was eX-
ceptional. 1t was SO bountiful that scar
city all over Europe did not cause mate
rial advance in the price Of cereal food. Il
is reckoned that it amounted TO the pro-
digious aggregate of 612o00O00 bushels.
This year the States which grow winter
wheat will yield an average crop. perhaps
not as large as that Of 1891. but still up to
the average for the past ten years but the
spring wheat States viii show a marked
diminutlon. Upon the extent of that dimi-
mutton the future prospects of the wheat
markets through the world will depend.
In New York dealers are beginning to figure
On a crop OF 4S0, ,000,0 bushels. Ii events
should confirm this estimate our food ex-
ports this year must show a heavy falling
Of. and simultaneously an advance in the
price vi wheat can hardly be avoided. IL
is evident that Great Britain will want
more wheat than the United States can
conveniently spare.
A reduction Of our wheat crop to 55o-
O0G0 600 bushels or thereabouts would not
the price. though it must always be renen-
Dered that our home consumption increases
at the rate of seven or eight million bushels
a year; thus. if Minnesota and the Dako-
tas should turn out 125 000. 600 TO 10000 coo
bushels, this State yielding it's usual
35, 100000 bushels, the wheat-consuming
countries might tide over the winter with
out seriously affecting prices.
In the Fond markets If iha world 1haat yov
erns. Where the wheat crop is failure the
corn and the rye crops are light. and though
there is no necessary connection between
wheat and animal food the unfertility Of the
wheat-felds by no means involving barren
ness in the pasture lands, yet still, when
ever wheat becomes dear, beef, pork and
provisions advance in price by sympathy.
Ii the wheat crop OF the United States does
not exceed 4S0000,000 bushels this year all
kinds OF food viii be higher in price.
The markets. of the world are 50 inter-
linked by the development of commercial
intercourse that local crop failure is now
felt everywhere. Argentine, for instance
was expected to yield considerable wheat
for export this year. But ali branches OF
industry aud commerce have been SO dis
located by the financial crisis in that cGun-
try that there viii be Iigtle surplus wheat
for export and tie deficiency viii have to
be made up from some other quarter. The
unTeiiaulIty OF the Indian crop is becoming
notorious, ana one year with another when
ever one Australian province has a good
| crop it is all needed TO feed some other
| province. The only countries which eau be
| relied upon 10 supply food TO the countries
which cannot feed themselves are the United
| States, Ru sia. the Dauubian provinces and
| Canada. If ID any one OF these a crop fail
| ure occurs II devolyes upon the others a
! strain which they may not conveniently en-
| dure. The result viii be a resurrection Of
heat-growing on intelligent principles in
countries which were once large producers,
but have passed out of the list in conse-
| quence Of the decay OF agriculture. Such
are Egypt and Spain. These countries sup
| piled the bread on which the Romans lived ;
| they could do SO again if their fields were
| intelligently titled. But they will probably
| not awake TO their opportunities untiI the
| price Of wheat warns consumers that the
| United States wants all that it raises for
| home consumption