Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1892-10-31
FIGURING ON THE NEXT HOUSE.
A Possible Republican Gain Of Sixty Mem
bers-The Democrats and the Alliance.

Possible Republican Gain Of Sixty Mem
bers-The Democrats and the Alliance.
There is very little talk about the political
complexion Of the next House, though there is
great deal Of figuring. The democratic ma
jority is so overwhelming in the present House
that ii seems almost like q hopeless task to
overcome it. 1t can hardly be said that the
publican congressional committee expect to
have an opportunity at the next Congress to
elect Mr.. Reed Speaker, but they do expect the
big democratic majority to melt away very con-
siderably at this election. preparatory. as they
figure it, to a final and complete disappearance.
The members who compose the majority of this
House have great many things to trouble them
in the campaign. and individually many of
them have many things to explain to their con-
stituents. which may or may not improve by
explanation; but however hard it may go with
numbers Of them, it would be very remark
able If the whole majority should be
wiped out at one election. The presi-
DENTAL struggle has SO much more of doubt
and at the same time SO much more of promise
in il that the congressional fight is in measure
lost sight Of Shortly before the adjournment
OF the last session the democrats we're
tremely uneasy about the outlook and consid-
cred that there was no small danger that they
might lose control Of the lower branch of Con-
Bress again ne uneaSlneSs was tnen Occa-
stoned BY the conflicting views Of the silver
question and the uncertainty as to the tariff
reform program.
DEMOCRATIC FEARS OF THE ALLIANCE ALLAYED.
The danger that the discontinued alliance
men might run individuals out of their seats
and. perhaps. the party out Of power was then
very generally dreaded by the democrats. To
a very considerable extent this apprehension
has been almost mysteriously allayed. The
fight appears to have narrowed down more
closely between the two old parties. At the
time Of the last congressional election the al
lance in the south worked within the demo-
cratic party and not as an independent politi
cal force. A large number of the stanchest Of
the old democrats we're members of the alliance
and the order of farmers was endeavoring to
control nominations and to get the running Of
the party. Alliance or anti-allance, they were
all democrats, and 1t was merely question Of men
and policies. not of parties. Tom Watson
the only southern alliance member in this House
who acted independently during the last session,
whereas the western members of that order
stood out as a third party. Now when the
southern alliance leaders try to act as an indie
pendent party it is at the cost of great loss Of
power. They run into the 'force BILL issue.
the same as republicans, and the democrats are
relieved of much of the anxiety they once felt.
1t is not felt by them that there is longer any
very great danger of a material increase of the
ton in the House.
There is still some talk of the third party
holding the balance of power. but it is very
much less than formerly and not with the same
apprehension. The indications are that the
power will lie very decidedly with one or the
other of the old parties. The impression among
politicians generally is that there will be very
few If any third party representatives from the
south. and that the republicans will win back
next month most of the districts lost to them
in Kansas. Nebraska and elsewhere. 1t is
thought that the third party will figure verv
inconspicuously in the next House.
In neither of the congressional committees
are they giving out any figures in estimate of the
relative party strength in Congress and there is
very little to go on to make estimate from
except the conservative idea that there is not
apt to be very great change all at once.
REPUBLICAN PROSPECTS.
just on the surface of things, taking only
what is plainly in sight, the republicans are in
to gain eight members from Ohio. one from
Arkansas, one from California, five from ILL
nois, three from Iowa, four or FIVE from
Kansas from the allience), one in Connecti-
cut, one from Maryland, three at least from
Massachusetts. three in Michigan. one OF two
from Minnesota, one from Missouri, probably
two from the third party in Nebraska two from
New Hampshire, four from New York, one from
North Carolina. two from Pennsylvania, one
in Wisconsin.
This would reduce the democratic majority
to about one-third its present size. 1t is posi-
BILE that the peoples party may be entirely
wiped out. The local election in Georgia at
which Watsons district went largely demo-
cratic encouraged the democrats with the hope
that Watson may be left home after the close of
next session and OF course the election Of other
third party Congressman from the south Is
matter Of great uncertainty.
a. Republicans concede that Jerry Simpson NAV
be elected in Kansas. but they are very hopeful
Of defeating him and feel very confident that no
other peoples party candidate in Kansas will be
elected. Less is known about the situation in
Nebraska. great many and varying estimates
are made. some giving the republicans the House
democrats a very good share Of the representa-
ton it now has and others figuring out in a
variety of WAYS how the third party may hold
the balance of power. This last seems to be
suggested by the novelty of the situation it
would produce rather than by any probability
of its coming about. Having such a tremendous
majority now the chances are, any one can
see. that the democrats will organize the next
House. Any such revolution would throw
! them out of power there at this time would
/ tear them up root and branch and make the
party of little consequence in the immediate
future.
POSSIBLE REPUBLICAN GAIN OF SIXTY.
|
chances seem to be that the republicans will
make gain of some forty-five or fifty seats in
/ the House. some of which will come from the
peoples party. In the neghborhood of forty
| to forty-seven are liable to come from the
| democrats. Under the new apportionmeut the
democrats can count on but about seven Of the
additional seats, and, leaving out Nebraska. as
possibly subject to claim from the third
party, the republicans can count with reason
able certainty on fourteen Of the new seats.
The republicans are thus in position to count
on gain of some sixty odd seats in the House
| giving them in the neighborhood Of hundred
and fifty, thoagh they should make very in
significant gain in the south and no extra.
ordinary gains elsewhere. The democratic
majority is, therefore, almost certain to be cut
down about two-thirds, with very considerable
possibilities below that. While there will be
more alliance members in the House, the
chances seem to be that there will be not more
than half dozen third party men. Some Of
their most picturesque characters are liable te
make their last appearance this winter.