The Seattle post-intelligencer. [volume] (Seattle, Wash. Terr. [Wash.]) 1888-1914, 1892-01-18
THE PEACE OF EUROPE.

| The present weakness of Russia guar
antees the peace of Europe, for the peace
| of Europe is not likely TO be broken until
Russia feels strong enough to break It,
France is naturally depressed with the
| prospect before her. The emperor OF Ger
many has strengthened himself by new
alliances in all the courts of Europe save
/ that of Russia. Italy. unmindfui OF the
debt of gratitude due France for So!ferino,
| which In 1859 restored to her Lombardy
| and Venice. still remains the ally OF Aus
| tria. her old-time hated oppressor. The
| sympathy of England is doubtless with
the nti-French coalition. Lord Salisbury
means to secure the powerful support OF
Germany in case France should ever insist
on the evacuation of Egypt by English
troops. Italy. the natural ally of France,
| was lost to her by the stupid craftsmanship
! of Napoleon the Third, who forced Cayour
| to cede Nice to France, and did not do half
as much for Italy after SoIferino in 1850 as
| Prussia did in 1866 after Sadowa and Gus
tozza The French protectorate of Tunis
excited the hostility of Italy against
France as the usurper of the italian right
| to the regency of that state. Had it not
| been for this Tunis occupation Italy would
not probably be today member OF the
triple alliance; but as it is, Italy, the
former friend of France, must be counted
as her enemy in event of great European
war. Furthermore the anti-clerical gov
eminent of Italy has never been satisfied
with the conservative attitude of France
in relation to the Catholic church. Austria
has been the mere satellite of German
policy since Sadowa in 1866, and the i'm
pending shadow of war with Russia is sure
to keep Vienna hound to Berlin, as the
support of Germany is indispensable in
that event to Austria.
France, therefore, finds herself prac-
tically isolated in Europe, save on the side
of Russia, and Russia is too debt-ridden
and famine-stricken to stir. Of course
there will continue to be good under
standing between France and Russia, for
without armed France on her flank and
rear, Germany, backed by Austria and
Italy, would not hesitate to court war
with Russia tomorrow. Except for recip-
rocal relations of common interests Rus
STA has little reason to love France, but
she must look upon Prussia and Austria
as both ungrateful. Emperor Nicholas, of
Russia, saved the emperor of Austria his
throne in f849, when the revolted Hun
garians were in full tide of victory. Alex
ander III. warned France not to inter-
pose to save Austria from defeat in
1866. and the same Russian emperor in
1870 enforced neutrality when otherwise
Austria would have saved France by at
lacking Prussia. Had it not been for
Russia, Prussia today would be what she
was in 1860, a second-rate power. There
would have been no victory at Sadowa to
make Prussia chief of the North German
confederation; no Sedan to make the king
OF Prussia emperor of Germany. When
Russia had beaten Turkey in 1878, Ger
many showed no gratitude, but compelled
the congress of Berlin, which forced the
car to surrender the full prize of victory.
Russia has not violated that treaty, but it
has been violated by Bulgaria and Turkey
with the tacit consent of Germany and
Austria.
No wonder France Is respondent. She
has put herself in an admirable condition
of offense and defense, but she has not a
friend in Europe save Russia, who is to-
day "the sick man" of the Great Powers,
while Germany is a political, social and
military unit against France, and is backed
by Austria, Italy and Roumania, while
England is at least non-sympathetic with
France. The military population of France
today. man for man, is not equal to that
of Germany. The Germans are
prolific race, and steadily increase
in population, while France remains
stationary France can put, it is true,
$50, 900 men in the field in six days, and
can throw 100000 men on the German
frontier in forty-eight hours, but on the
other hand Germany can put over 2, 900 900
ofmen on the march TO the French frontier
in ten days from giving the order for mobiI-
ization. Without Russia this force would
crush France, and even with Russia,
France would with difficulty win the
battle against all the rest of continental
Europe with no hope of aid from Eng
land, which would complacently fiddle
while France and Russia were burning.
The French frontier on the German side
has been converted. since 1879, into one
vast earthwork. France cannot strike
Germany, nor Germany France. except
through Belgium. The neutrality of
Belgium is guaranteed by the great pow
ers of Europe by the treaty OF 1889.
England spoke up promptly for the
sanctity of Belgium's territory in 1870, and
it was not violated, because ii was not
necessary TO Moltke's plans, but in the
event of war today Germany without the
violation Of the neutrality of Belgium,
could not strike France, for the old road
along the German frontier is impregnably
blocked by the new fortified line of France,
France, on the other hand, could not
invade Germany save through Belgium.
since the German fortress wall is rs i'm.
pregnahle as her own rectifed frontier.
Under these circumstances it is not easy
20 believe that the neutrality of Belgium
will be respected when Germany and
France next lock horns in deadly conflict
Who could enforce the neutrality of Bel
gium9 Surely not England alone, and all
the other great powers signstory to the
treaty of 1889 would be parties to the great
continental war and quite willing TO
violate the treaty. Therefore, the next
great German-Frsnco war will be fought
out probably on the soil of Belgium. That
has been the battle field of Europe since
the battle Of Bovines, which saved France,
under Philip Augustus, in the thirteenth