, 1892-10-27
NATIONAL POLITICS.
What the Outlook is in the
Several States.
Counter Claims of the Two Great
Parties-The Situation in New
York, the s'PIvOtaI', State-Other

Parties-The Situation In New
York, the s'PIvOtaI', state-Other
states.
New YORK, October 27.-The presiden-
tial election. will be sheld in less than two
weeks from today, November sth. The
only change which has occurred in the
situation during the week past been a gem
eral concentration of republican and demo-
cratic efforts upon New York and Indiana
This has been the result of the clearer per-
ception by the managers of the two great
parties that by the votes of these states the
contest is to be decided. The advantage
is with the republicans, as they can elect
their candidate by carrying either New
York or Indiana, being able to lose either
of them, whereas the democrats, to secure
the triumph Of their candidate, must get
the electoral votes of both these common
wealths. Should they lose either they
would be defeated.
The republican national committee con-
fdently predicts that Indiana is safe for
Mr.. Harrison; the democratic national
committee is equally confident that It will
land. : The one is likely as the other
to have its prediction fulfilled, as the stu
alton in Indiana is complicated and OBJ
scured in extraordinary degree by the un-
known voting strength of the third party
and the disaffection in the republican
ranks, which latter may be as serious as
1t is represented, or Of no Importance
whatever.
Indiana was formerly a stronghold of the
republican party. It was carried for Lin
coin in 1854 by majority of 20, 189; for
Grant in 1868 and 1872 by 9,572 and 22,515
respectively. In 1876 the state gave Tilden
majority of 5,415, and in 1880 it reversed
the previous democratic victory by giving
Garfield majority Of 6642. In 1884 it
again gave the victory to the democracy,
Mr.. Cleyeland's majority being 6,527, and
In 1888 1t once more reversed itself by Civ
ing Mr.. Harrison majority of 2,348. 1t
will thus be perceived that Indiana is no
longer an assuredly republican state; it is
one of the certainly doubtful ones, and
change of less than 1,200 votes in 1888
would have given its fifteen electoral votes
to Mr.. Cleveland.
With regard to New York the republican
managers predict that the state will give
IL 900 majority for Mr.. Harrison; the dem
Ocratic managers declare that it will give
Mr. Cleveland majority of 10000. Three
weeks before the election campaign man
ayers were wont to inspire their followers
with enthusiasm by predicting extraordi-
nary majorities, and the moderate predic-
tions made by the highest republican and
democratic authorities respecting the EN-
pire State seem to indicate that the we'll
informed leaders of either party believe
that the contest there will be an exceed
ingly close one, and that neither is gem
timely conscious of its own success.
Since 1860 the democrats have carried
Indiana twice, in 1876 and in 1884, and the
republicans have carried it five times, in
1864, 1868, 1879, 1880 and 1885, During the
same time New York has, in alternating
presidential years, gone from one party to
the other. In 1864 Lincoln's majority was
6749, in 1868 Seymour's was 10000 in 1872
Grants was 3d. 455, IN 1876 Tilden's was
81, 752, in 1880 Garfeld's was 21 ,033, in 1884
CleVeland's was 1149 and in 1888 Harrison's |
was 14,754. If this rule of alienation, of
swinging from one party to the other in al |
ternate presidential years with unvarying |
iteration should be maintained this year, |
New York would take its place in the |
democratic column OF states in November. |
New York, which is called by either party |
the 'piYOtal' state, which makes or un- |
makes presidential candidates. is nothing
if not doubtful, and that in this campaign,
as 1T was IN previous ones, is the only really |
certain thing about it. Only the merest, |
most unsubstantial guesses-it would be /
folly to call them estimates-can be made |
of republican or democratic majority in |
that state. In 1884 the two parties polled |
in New York 1,125, $50 votes, and change
of less than 500 votes from the democratic |
party to the republican side would have
elected Mr.. Blaine, instead of Mr. Cleveland, |
president. In 1888 the total republican and |
democratic vote 1,2S6, ,303, and change of
less than 1900 from the republican to the |
democratic column would have elected Mr.. |
Cleveland instead of Mr.. Harrison.
Assuming, as the most intelligent and |
trustworthy leaders of the two great parties /
do, that the states of New York and In |
diana will decide the election in favor of |
the republican or democratic candidates,
it will be recognized that the most ignorant |
voter is as likely as the best informed |
party manager to correctly predict what |
the decision of the country will be on the |
8th OF November. Until the returns from |
New York and Indiana shall be received |
there can be nothing more assuring con-
cerning what maiorities those states will |
give, or to whom they will give them, than |
mere guesses-guesses more or less wild, |
and based upon nothing more substan tial |
than the wish that is father to them. The |
national political situatio is consequently |
as obscure today as it was on either of the |
days on which the presidential candidates |
were nominated.