Morris tribune., 1892-03-23
FAMINE os TIE FUTURE.


Possibilities of the Extinction of the
Human Race by Starvation.
Mr.. Rayenstein, member of the
British association for the advancement
of science, has been computing the
probable increase of the human race on
the earth. He arrives at the startling
conclusion that in 1Sa years the density
of population upon the globe will be such
that the means of subsistence will be in
adequate to it's support. He estimates
the population of the world of the pres
ent year at 1,46S, 900, 900. He finds that
the average increase every ten years is
about per cent.
The section of the country still open to
colonization comprises parts OF Africa,
North and South America, Australia,
some outlying islands, the steppes and
deserts. The total area of all the habit
able lands in the world is over 5000, 900
of square miles. Of this area the fertile
or comparatively fertile lands are over
2S, ZOO, 900 of square miles, the bare grass
lands or steppes 100000 and the bare
deserts 1900, $50 square miles
To the steppes he allocates a popula-
ton of ten to the square mile, and to the
desert regions one to the square mile.
The bulk of the population would, there
fore, have to subsist on the 2S,000,000
square miles of fertile lands. Compar-
ing the density of population-in India
l75 to the square mile, in China 295 to
the square mile and in Japan s64 to the
square mile-he arrives at the conclu-
sion that a world population of 207 to
the square mile in the cultivable regions
would be fair estimate.
This 207 persons to the square mile
will be reached in 1Ss years at the pres
ent rate of increase, when the total pop
ulation of the cultivable area would be
$3.50, 700, ,O00 and the total number the
earth would feed 1904, 100000.
Any further increase of population
must either be provided for by a diminG-
ton of subsistence to each individual OF
by some improved mode of production,
or by keeping down the future birth rate
below the death rate. Mr.. Ravenstein's
ent generation very vitally. We can
leave the solution to our great-grand-
children. We have increased and null
tiplied very comfortably in spite of the
lugubrious warnings of Mr.. Malthus,
and perhaps they also will multiply and
increase in spite of Mr.. Ravenstein.
If any race must go to the wall, it may
be confidently predicted it will not be
the white race. There will be Dar-
winian survival of the fttest. The weak
er races will disappear before the
stronger. The Indian will ultimately
vanish from this continent, and the Afri-
can in his native land bids fair to- be
decimated.
The tendencyo of population to the cities
must also be taken into account in any
comparison of people to areas of reason
able subsistence. Concentration in large
towns always tends to increased produc
tion within wide circuit around them,
especially in the line of fruits and vege-
tables. Two hundred years hence the
desert lands which Mr.. Ravenstein re-
CARDS as incapable of cultivation may
blossom as the rose. Already irrigation
is working wonders in the unpromising
soil in some of our western states. Mod
ern science will teach many ways of in
creasing the food supply.
Mr.. Ravenstein's speculations are
plausible and his statistics suggestive
enough, but the figures of today may be
utterly falsifed by the figures of 200
years hence. Many things may inter-
vene in the meantime to keep down pop
ulation or increase the food supply. The
extinction of the race by starvation is
very remote contingency indeed, and
Mr.. Ravenstein's 1872 years bid fair to
stretch out indefinitely before that con-
tingency occurs. rs.-Baltimore Sun.