Fort Worth gazette. [volume] (Fort Worth, Tex.) 1891-1898, 1892-02-09
BREWERS AND BOT ERS OF BEER AND OF

of a straight upw ard line. In the mean.
time, there is no surrender of the general
conviction that prices must ultimately &c
higher and possibly much higher; but it is
conceded that months may elapse before
that tendency eliminates. and among spec
| ulative leaders, it is preferred that the
campaign should be so prolonged.
The extraordinary ease IN the loan mar
ket can hardly possibly fail to produce an
| active, if not an excited, speculation. When
an extreme ease in money comes concur
| rently with general depression in busl-
ness, it may fail to develop speculation: but
when-as is the case at PRESENT. happens
| along with large crops and healthy state
of affairs at large, it almost inevitably car
RIGS along with it a general rise in the val
ueS OF securities as well as OF other invest
ments. There are two especially potent
monetary influences at present acting as a
lever on the market In the first place, the
farmers are devoting large amount of the
proceeds Of their abundant crops to the
liquidation of their farm loans, which has
the double effect of creating a fresh de-
mand for investments from the holders of
the liquidated mortgages and of causing a
| large accumulation of currency at this and
other Eastern centers. This movement IS
one of the main causes of the continued ex-
traordinary influx of money from the lnte-
rior. In the next place, the accumulation of
large floating balances at this and the other
seaboard cities is producing depression of
the rate of interest on call loans which is
appalling to the banks and to other financial
institutions; and that induces a demand for
the diyidend-paying stocks which amounts
to the withdrawal of an important amount
of Al shares from the market. These
Withdrawals have been, to some
extent, Offset by the return Of securities
from Europe; but symptoms seem to indi
cate that the refiuX from London has about
ceased-a probability which is strength
ened by the low rate of l(olA per cent for
call money on that market. Influences OF
this character, however, are not apt to
create sudden or sensational advances in
prices. They appeal mainly to careful
financial managers, who make their invest
meuts gradually as their funds accumulate
and avoid show of buying; and, for this
reason, these factors may not be expected
10 produce their full effect on prices until a
later stage has been reached. SagaciousI
operators have their eye upon the ultim2te
outcome of these causes and thereforsare
immovably ''bullish;" but during tie in
term they are willing to make ShosE turns
for moderate profits.
The bears advance as their chief argu-
ment against an upward movcmentin prices
that, the world over. affairs are b a reac-
tionary condition, which, they Say, is at
tended with a commercial depression which
in incompatible with a "bull'' market for
securities There is semblance OF, truth,
in this but nothing more. The reasoaSuE
would ne sound if the depression to which
it refers was the consequence of panic and
its usual attendant, widespread bank
ruptcy. 1t is true that the Barring suspen-
sion and its surrounding circumstances
were sharp shock TO business in all parts
of the world; but there was nothing like
the contraction of credit and the losses
from failures that usually attend the great
periodic panics. It was shock, but little
more; and its effect has been principally 10
create conservatism. to check really I'M
sound enterprise. and to eliminate wild
speculation at a few diseased spots in South
America, rather than to produce q general
violent disors anization of trade and finance.
This amounts 10 a much less serious reac-
ton than that which ordinarily succeeds a
general panic Its effects are not only less
severe, but are also briefer in their dura-
ton. There exists in Europe a contraction
of uusound business and speculation. which
is shown in the decrease of the commerce
of Great Britain and that of some
of the continental nations; but there
is none Uf the excessive caution that de-
MES capital or credit for meritorious under
takinss; and when the rate of interest falls
to l and 2 per cent, the holders of money
are not likely 70 prefer to keep il idle rather
than invest it in good securities or lend il
sonable 20 infer that such general conse-
ouences as have followed the crisis of sew
enteen months ago may be expected to yield
early TO recupeTative influences, and the
signs are not lacking that such recovery is
already in steady progress and will make
itself plainly visible in the course of the
current year. Such recovery is especially
10 be expected in this country, for not only
have we suffered less than Europe from
the Barring crisis but we have also been en-
riched by the best harvest experienced in
the history of the country
The only dark spots in the home situation
are the depression of business ard the
bacllwardness of payments at the SoutH
and the dizziness OF trade on the Pacific
coast; both of which are mainly the conse-
quences of undue expansion of speculation
or over-creationS of corporate capital in the
respective sections. These causes are in
iuriously affecting the railroads of those
groups OF states; but the market while
discriminating against the securities thus
directly affected, does not mistakenly infer
that all others should suffer in sympathy.
Our inference from the foregoing factors
IS that the market Is destined to a higher
ranye OF prices as the year progresses, but
that the continuation is likely 70 be reached
by q series of ups and downs-pessibly
prolonged one-and that therefore it is not
safe to sell short" stock after the recent
decline, but wise for the moment to buy on
the drops and realize quick profits.
Henry CLEws,