The Helena independent., 1892-01-14
THE FINANCIAL REVIEW,
First Week Of the New Year Ex-
hibited Activity in the
Stock Market.
Buying Has Come From Those In
terestea in Railroad and Cor-
porate Properties.
Oninions That Differ as to the Results OF
d Last Years Business Of the
Country.

h Opinions That Differ ns TO the Nesults Oh
SF Last Years Rusincss Of the
Ceuntry.
NEw YORK. Jan. 13.-E Special. The last
circular issued by the banking house Ct
Henry Clews Il Co., II, l3 and 10 Broad
street and 35 Wall street, says: The iirst
week Of the new year exhibits the general
activity in the stock market that our re-
cent weekly advices have forsshadowed.
The disbursement OF over one hundred
millions Of January interest and dividends
is attended with an active demand for
bonds and for dividend payina stocks; and
those purchases have given q stimulus 70 !
the latent feeling in favor of higher prices
and developed an active speculatives move
,nent, under which prices have advanced
throuehout the list. The transactions e snss |
the exchange have doubled the volusae pre-
yailing during the quiet Of several preced- |
ing weeks and symptoms seem TO tayoril
the preponderant opinion that acampaian
OF unusual activity has ret in which 10
likely to bs continued throughout the year.
Thus far, the buying has come mainly
from investors and the class OF large opsr-
ators who are Immediately Interested IN
railroad and other corporate properties. de-
sirious of creating . market for disposlng
of portion Of their large holdings. Specu-
lative orders from local "outsiders" and
from the interior, however, are beginning
to come in, but have not yet become con-
spicuously large; though home exception to
this rule must be- made in the case Of
Chicago operator who rank among the
most sanpuiue ssbulls;'' and as the latter
stand nearest to the section most 1mme-
diately benefited BY last years harvest
and should therefore Le good judges Of the
railroad prospects for 1892, this fact should
have some weight in estimating the future
course Of the market. Much must depend
On the extent to which the outside public
nav be drawn into the market. lf they ap-
/ pear in force, the larger operators will re-
main On the scene. If they keep, aloof, the
capitalist class may be expected to realize
as far as may be feasible without seriously
depressing prices, and then wait for new
opportunities. The early future of the
this contingency, and it il not easy to say
\ which turn the market may be expected to
take. The fact that there is not
al present any great in-rush Of out
siders is not of itself decisive proof
that they may not be forthcoming at
lating to this class, it is to be remembered
that they have become more cautious and
rs conservative than formerly; and it may
turn out that many are waiting until better
assured that the newborn boom Is going to
live long enough to give them fair chance.
! iIhe two weeks during which the rise hes
j been in progress il certainly not long enough
to determine what is their disposition. Ii
it were with this class, merely question
"a of conditions affecting the intrinsic value
of securities and the monetary facilities for
speculation, there could be no second
opinion as to what may be expected from
them; for there can be no doubt that the
railroad traffic of 1899 will exceed all prece-
dent, and there is an equal chance OF long
sustained ease in tho loan market. Those
alone, however, are not the only conditions
necessary for an active speculation. II Is
equally important that there should be the
individual financial means for buying and
carrying stocks and how far that condition
exists remains to be dete' mined.
Opinions differ as to the results OF the
past wears business of the country; some
maintaining that neither manufacturers nor
merchants have made their usual profits,
while others hold that the quiet of business
has been due mainly to conservatism fol-
lowing the crisis of 1890 and that, after all,
the business of 1891 has left nearly on av-
more than upon any other condition de-
pends the future course of the stock mar
ket: and the current month will solve the
problem. In the meantime, the 'street" 1s
mot likely to jump to any positive opinions
on this point, but it is likely to sustain the
z market until it is settled what may be ex-
pected from the outside element. In the
meantime, there is likely to be some real
izing or recent profits, which probably
range between two and five points and are
therefore tempting to prudent operators.
That process, indeed, is now in operation;
but as such sales are soon followed by re-
purchases they have no marked effect upon
prices.
1t is especially Important to keep in view
the fact that a new and important group OF
stocks will from this time come into prom
inence through the forwarding Of the corn
crop. The department of agriculture esti-
mates the out-turn of that crop at 9, ,OG0, ,OO0, !
600 bushels. which is the largest but one
ever realized. 1t is the last crop to come
into the market, and is now beginning tc
pendent upon this grain have, i'll degree
sympathized with the improvement in the
finances Of the roads serving tho wheat
belt; but there is still a liberal margin fol
further advance to come from the future
reports Of actual increase of traffic, and
this lengthening of the list of roads show
ing large increases can hardly fail to have
the effect of advancing prices later. 1t viii
be the infusion of new steam to replace tina
which has evaporated, and will therefor,
act as Il sustaining force to the genera
market. 1t is questionable whether suf
fcient Importance has been attached to th
volume of this years supply of grain des
tined to come to the seaboard. Coinclden
with our unprecedented crops (the whsa
crop being now officially reported at 612,
100000 bushels1, there is a general def
cienoy in Europe. and the Russian export i
now wholly cut of, while Russia hersel
may have to import. 1t is, therefore, quit
possible that our years export of wheat an
flour may reach 200,O00,OO0 bushels, and ou
corn shipments may show similar ratio o
increase. This means very important il,
crease in the grain tonnage of the trun
roads connecting with the west and, at tn
same time, the full occupation of the roll
ing stock of those roads il calculated t
maintain rates of freight. The home stu
alton therefore includes elements calcu
lated to stimulate future advance
stocks beyond what has been 80 far real
lied; but, as the present tone of the ma
ket is oonservatively "bullish" rather tina
highly sanguine, prudent operators al
likely to realize upon the profits of the lal
advance in the hope of buying back upc
reactions; and we commend that policy fl
the moment to our friends.
A STORY OF JOHN NJ. THURsTOl