Arizona republican., 1892-11-08
A PROPHETIC VISION.
WALTER WELLMAN UNFoLDS THE
FUTURE AS 1T APPEARS TO HIM.

NfhaseeA ffAAActtbhs WIN VI Nho
Probable Results in Novem her Changed
Conditions In the West and South.
Correspondence OF THE REPUBLICAN.
WASHINGTON, Nov. l.-Who will win
pe presidency next month"; Is it to be
Cleveland or Harrison? The man does
rot live who is smart enough to tell be-
fore the votes are counted. He may
think he knows, and may confidently
Tsert his belief and give his reasons,
tut he is only guessing at it. AS rule
-tle man who knows it all simply voices
his wish in uttering his predictions.
There is lots of humbug in politics,
hut the biggest imposition is that which
the rabid partisan puts upon himself.
Because he is u Republican or a Demo
crat and wants Harrison or Cleveland
elected, ergo his party is all perfection
&d prosperity. and his candidate is
gre to win. OF course there are ra-
tipnal men who do not permit their
larty love to run away with their judg-
nent-men who like to sit down and
discuss the situation with calm judg-
Aaent and clear discernment.
l take it for granted that you, reader,
xre this sort of a man. And having had
Better opportunities than some of you to
1now what is going on in the political
Norld-having Travelled during the last
three weeks in New York, New England
Fnd four or five of the southern states
having met and talked with prominent
snd sensible men Of both parties from
I'll sections Of the country-I want to
give you my impressions as to the prob
&ble result Of the great campaign. /
shall do so very frankly.
l see no warrant for the belief that
there is to be tidal wave in any direc-
hon. Changes from one party to the
other are always going on, but | see no
more of them in this campaign than
we're seen in IFS predecessors. In my
Judgment the states which have hereto
fore been "close" will be "close" now.
n is at the same time true that there is
smuch greater number of these "close"
states than ever before.
In my last letter l gave the number
'qf these doubtful states at eighteen, with
rs electoral votes, Now, with another
week in which to gain information, l
would add to rather than take from that
list. This remarkable increase in the
number OF doubtful states over past
campaigns is due principally to four
causes-to wit:
First-General apathy among the
voters of the north, producing hstless
campaign, and due largely to the fact
that both candidates are old, having
xun one of them once and the other twice
Already
Second-Slow but steady growth Of
fhe tariff reform sentiment among the
sgriculturalists of the northwest and
the town people Of New England
Third-The peculiar conditions exist
ing in the south, where the Democratic
party is dividing into factions and the
White people into castes-poor whites
against the aristocracy, and country
people against town people-and where
the rival castles are bidding for the col
cred vote because it holds the balance
Of power.
Fourth-Presence of a third party,
which is weakening the Democrats in
Che south and the Republicans in the
west, and which also, by means Of fu-
sion in various states, is upsetting party
Zines and tSe calculations of the poll
fcians.
Reducing all these and other cur
yents of public opinion to two, / think
can see a northern drift toward Democ-
Kacy and a southern drift toward Re
Fublicanism. At the approaching cleo
ton l expect tosee a small break in the
sohdity Of the Democratic south, and a
corresponding break in the solidity of
the Republican west. 1t is well that
these threatened changes come, or prom
7se TO come, together. When they do
come-and If they come not now they
surely will in the near future-sectional
lines will be obliterated, the country
will become more truly national, and
the tyrannical dominance of the Empire
State in the national politics of both par
flies will reach an end--a result sincerely
wished for by all patriotic men, ire
spective of party affiliations.
In this letter l wish to discuss in de-
tail some Of the eighteen doubtful states
Connecticut is in my judgment the only
doubtful state in New England. In
Massachusetts there is an evident
drift toward Democracy, but the change
viii not come this year. The re-
serve Republican vote is likely to be
Brought out, and look to see the state
go for Harrison by about 10000 ma
jority. New Hampshire is close, but
probably safely Republican by from
5000 to 1900.
Connecticut is really doubtful. In
1850 Garfield carried it by 1900, and
though the Democrats have always won
since that year their pluralities have
been very slender 1884 in 1884, 1886 in
1855 and only 20 at the state election of
1890. This year the Republicans are
perhaps stronger than usual, because
The Mckinley act helps the tobacco
growers, and in a total vote of 1900 I
do not look for more than 500 plurality
either way.
West Virginia is doubtful. Secretary
Elkins is making the fight of his life