The Portland daily press., 1892-10-15
with any sort OF pIurallty he Will be

with any sort OF plurality he Will be
lucky.
Virginia would be more doubtful than
it is if it were not for the intensity of
the Democracy in that state. Virginia
is Bourbon White men who become
Republicans are socially prescribed. A
rich man, like Malone, can endure ostra
cism, but poor men, like John Wise.
have to give it up and go away to New
York if they would make money in their
professions. If Virginia Republicans
had better leaders-leaders who could
get along without quarreling with each
other-and more courage in the face of
| the opposition believe they could
carry the state for Harrison. AS it is,
Cleveland will probable get Virginia by
| 5000 or $1,000 votes.
North Carolina is very nearly a Re-
publican state. In the western or noun
tain region many counties are Repub-
lican. They were Union during the
war, and are not in close touch or SYM
pathy with the people of the seaboard.
At the last three presidential elections
the Democrats have carried the state by
5000, $4,000 and $4,000 respectively.
This year the Peoples party is drawing
some votes from the Democrats in the
| rural districts; but, odd as it may seem,
many negroes are ready to vote for
| Cleveland. If the Republicans could
hold the colored vote intact they might
carry the state. Under the circum-
stances Cleveland's majority is likely to
range from 5000 to $4,000.
In my Judgment Alabama is the only
| other southern state in which there is
| doubt. There the Democrats split in
two factions, had a fierce contest last
August over the governorship, and are
now charging each other with frauds at
| the polls. Kolb, who was the boiling
candidate for governor, is out against
Cleveland. The Populists are bitter
against all Democrats. With these two
elements the Republicans have formed
an alliance, and they will make strong
bid for the state. The Republican man
ayers, alert to the opportunity presented
in this state. are paying the campaign
expenses of the third partyites and of
the boiling Democrats. Alabama's
| Democratic majority in national cleo
ton, on a full vote and fair count, is
not more than 10000, and it may be
| overturned next month. Whatever the
August election may have been, think
the November election will be a fair
one.
Illinois seems to be doubtful state.
The tariff issue is helping the Demo-
Gratis little among the farmers. The
cities-which are Democratic, as are
nearly all cities in the country-are
growing in population, while the coun-
try, is losing. Thus the increase of pop
ulation in Chicago is about equal to the
/ increase shown in ten years by the en-
! tire state. -Four years ago Harrison
beat Cleveland in Illinois q, 000votes
In Chicago Harrison was nearly a thou
| sand ahead.
Wisconsin is claimed as doubtful by
the Democrats. Blaine carried the
state by $1,000, Harrison by 81 900, but
| in 1890 the Democrats elected their
governor by $4,000. The principal cause
of this change and the chief influence
upon which the Democrats rely for VIC
| tory next month is a movement of
| German-American voters from the Re
publican party. These voters were first
actuated by the school question, which
has been burning one in the state for
several years, but it is now claimed
| they have so much admiration for Mr.
/ Cleveland that they will be Democrats
on national as well as state issues.
have not been in Wisconsin and cannot
| Judge from personal observation.
| Possibly Kansas and Nebraska will
| give their electoral votes to Weaver
under the fusion plan. Colorado and
Nevada are doubtful. Well informed
politicians from the Pacific coast tell me
California is in a peculiar condition, and
/ that while Harrison would probably
carry the state no one would be much
surprised if it went the other way.
NY expectation is that California, Mon
tana, the two Dakotas and Minnesota
will go for Harrison.
New York and Indiana? Aye, there's
the rub! For these additionally doubt
full commonwealth the fight is as usual
desperate one. AS yet have formed
1 no opinion as to the result in these states
beyond an impression that Harrison has
little the best of it SO far in New
York, while Cleveland is more likely to
win in Indiana.
President Harrison could we'll afford
to be courteous to his rival and throw
his state for Mr.. Cleveland if Mr.. Give
land would return the compliment by
letting New York vote for Harrison.
WALTER WELLMAN.
[ Naar the Rank af ENGLAND.