The times. [volume] (Richmond, Va.) 1890-1903, 1892-11-27

pcrlod OF much cautlop among manu-
facturers, importers and distributors OF
clear conceptions OF the probable drift
OF affairs during the interim.
1t IS TO be taken for granted that the
purpose Of the prospective revision of
the tariff will be to reduce the cost Of
raw materials to home manufacturers
and to lower the price of a wide range
OF imported goods to our consumers, with
the effect Of cOrrespondingly lowering the
market value Of like domestic manufacture
ers. With this prospect In view. the first
effort of all holders of merchandise will
be to get rid Of il early at the best
prices prOcurable under the circum-
stances. so that when the new duties
take effect they may be holding the
smallest possible stocks of goods bought
under the old scale Of duties and prices
Under such circumstances merchants
may be expected to become very eager
sellers and very cautious buyers. Bust
ness will. therefore, be run, as far as
practicable on old stocks and, to that
extent, 1t will assume the phase or an
extensive commercial Liquidation: which
though not a normal condition, Will nave
wholesome as well as restrictive effects
Manufacturers, too, so far as they are
holding stocks will be as eager sellers
as merchants and may be expected 10
keep production unusually close 10 de-
mand. whilst they will reduce their sup
ply Of raw materials to the lowest limit.
The first effect Of this general policy OF
realizing will be to depress prices; the
next to diminish production. Consump-
ton will thus be likely to keep ahead
Of production and that factor may be
expected to act as a check upon the fall
I'm values, wherein will be found the safe
ty-valve of the situation. SO also, IN
respect TO imports; the limitation or the
demand from distributors and me down
ward tendency in prices will discourage
the buying OF the foreign goods paving
the present high duties; and that effect
will proportionately help the market for
domestic products.
The demand from consumers may be
expected to suffer in some directions,
but to be fairly maintained In others.
Those who are making investments Tor
future purposes in, FOR instnce, DulIu-
ings houses factories, vessels, rallrOad
construction or equipment. machinery,
repairs and extensions Of plant, &c, Will
naturally postpone their OUTLAWS In some
measure until arrangements or the tran.
sition are over and the lower scale OF
prices to be established by the new
tariff has been reached. This will be an
important curtailment of demand, "hch
will apply alike TO foreign ana domestic
products and to most kinds or raw ma
terial and of which there can be little
alienation until the new duties take effect.
when IL will come In as an important
stimulus to the new order or business.
The more necessary demand arising from
family and individual wants, which con-
StituteS largely pTcpOHutIdHL plOpOl
ton Of the whole requirements OF the
nation, will be supported by the gen
orally healthy condition OF business that
the country now enjoys, whist IL VIII
also be encouraged by the decllnlng ten
dency in prices. This condition OF gen.
eral trade will act as bulwark against
certain depressing tendencies inseparable
from the brief period OF change 10 the
new conditions.
The net result Of The disarrangements
oh Cd h,a "A martial contraction
of immediate consumption and a consid-
erably larger curtailment OF both pro-
duction and importation. with a reduc-
ton of stocks Of merchandise 10 the
lowest practical minimum. Nothlhs shUrt
of such restriction is possible under the
circumstances, and until the new tarin
comes into operation, and no credit can
be safely given 10 estimates that pre-
diet more roseate result But lhe pc
riod of these interruptions Will be COM
paratiVely brief and will be followed by
a set of new conditions calculated to
promote a rapid revival OF industry anu
trade for which the country can wen
afford TO make these temporary sacri-
fees.
The chief pressure OF these transient
disarrangements will be found to finally
settle upon raw materials ana LABOR. II
the manufacturer has TO accept lower
price for his product, he must clther
close his works or get compensation III
a reduction OF the costs Of productloI
and that economy must be ms IRE resort
for self protection. The producer OF raw
materials can have no choice but 10 acr
cent his share Of concession, at once II
he must, later if he may. LabOr may
be expected to yield its quota OF conces-
sion Crudgingly and tardiy. anu posi-
bly, not without more or less 1lSlur Dlhs
resort to lOckOutS or strikes. Those VINO
have taught WOTkingmen that reduc-
ton OF tariff does not mean Il relatlNo
reduction of wages have adulterated
great reform with very paradoXlcal doc
trine; bat we doubt whether they nave
succeeded to any great extent in mis-
leading their pupils. 1t certainly does
not require anything beyond the measure
of intelligence with which the American
workman is commonly credited 10 COM
prehend the accepted rule, that, in the
first place, il products are TO be sold Tor
less the working producers must get Tess
pay; and that in the next place, II work.
men concede in wages they will get full
compensation in the cheapening Of the
products they have to buy, so that the
net result 10 the Garner Is the same
under lower wages as under hlSher. But
while we have 10 doubt that the mass
Of Workmen are in measure prepared Ior
this equal change in wages and IN prices
when the new tariff comes into operation,
vet il is a question whether they Will
readily accept any reductions OF pay
until the new tariff goes into eIect. ms
may prove 10 be one Of the most emDar-
RAISING features we shall have TO en-
counter in approaching the new COM
mercial policy.
An important difficulty in this prelimi-
nary readjustmcnt OF prices VIII arise
from the necessary absence OF STANDARD
by which TO estimate values until the
new tariff law is promulgated. In the
interval, all judgments about the value
of goods must be largely guesses, ana
each seller must be guided by the SIM
pie rule Of getting the best price ne
can, from which will result certain
rough range of values that Will rule the
markets.
We have aimed to present these fea-
lures OF business precedent to the change
OF tariff without either eXaggeratOn or
pallation: for II is best for all parties
to face prospects just as they stand
There is, however, little In this future
20 excite apprehension. PerpleXing de-
rangements there must be; much con-
fusion, guessing and cropping about values
will be inevitable; some contraction or
business also is to expected and proits
viii be as much dependent on chance as
on good Judgment; but there is no ap,,
parent reason for expecting disaster ana
nothing, as a rule, TO prevent the reallz-
ing Of moderate profits on business. The
case is one Of readjustment OF the ma
chlnery OF trade. 1t means no such
break down or Generalization as fol-
lows from n panic growing out OF over
trading or rotten financing IL Involves
no disturbance of credit, no reaction from
speculative excuses; II is simply a