New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1892-11-23
WHEAT.
EXPORTS FOR FOUR MONTHS EXTRAOR-
DINARY-THE PROBABLE SURPLUS.

To the Hditor OF The Tribune
Sir: The exports Of wheat for four months
ending with October have been much the largest
Oh record for those months, with the single cN-
ception OF last year Final returns for three
months show exports, -four included, of 5l.27l, $50
bushels against Gj,7e1,19O during the same
months last year. The preliminary statement for
October shows exports of 20,l37,020 bushels
against 0l OF, 400 last year, thus making total
of 7,4Os,3l0 bushels -four included, against
"a, s8S,590 for the same four months Of last year
In $50, 1889, and 1883, exports were Du'
10000, 900, 3G.000,0oO and 3900O,OOO bushels
for the four months. In 1857 anu Io0o
they were $4,000, 900 and 900 bushels, re-
spectively, and in 1ss5 only 21,0OOOoO Ousheis'
Thus it appears that, although the decline III
comparison with last year seems large, there Is
great increase in comparison with other years
In truth the foreign demand for wheat has been
extraordinary, and has only escaped attention De
cause compared with the greater demand OF last
year.
A suggestive feature Of the movement TINS year
in the large increase in exports OF Hour, WhlIe the
exports of wheat decline. The outgo OF nour III
four months of this year was ),94''9'" DarreIs'
against 4l4O,j23 barrels in the same inoh'4iS
last year, an increase Of more th2n ~ per cent
But of wheat alone the exports IN the same moh'ls
we're 4465l53G bushels, against 64,216,23' III
the same months last year, decrease oil more
than 80 pcr cent. The net result, as above shown
is decrease of less than 1C per cent in the
quantity of wheat -four included
The latest department report estimates the yieiu
this wear at only j0O,000,00O bushels. Many
aecl;ne +. hclieve that the Weld can be small,
when the quantity received at nine Western poF'S
from July l TO November 10 has been over
ehals ylaat
than 40 per cent of the entire supply after de-
ductinc the quantity required for seed Those
who accent the estimates Of yield this year some
times offer the explanation that much OF inc
wheat which has come forward was carried over
from last year. not in the known stocNS Dut
TINT would only mean an underestimate OF the
rrop last year instead Of this year by the depart
mont According TO the department the co.,
SUMPTION of wheat in the counties where 1t was
grown was 27413S, $50 bushels last year. ana ms
year il would naturally be greater unless tho
acreage sown should be reduced Bat ont Oh
IRON Of 500, OOO 600 bushels this would leave bHt
2oG 600 600 bushels TO be moved out OF the conn-
ties where grown. Ii seems somewhat Nhproo-
able that past receipts at all points, except the
nine Western cities, of wheat taken ont OF inc
county where grown, and all future receipts at
these other points and the nine Western cities IN
over seven months of the crop year, VIII ho' eN
coed Sc 900, 600 bushels.
Bnt II has been the rule Of such comparisons
as 7 have made 10 take the official reports Tor
bssis as hoing the best evidence ubtainablc. Until
hotter evidence comes to light 500: 900 bushels
must be reconed for this years yield, ana
4s42.9O0 bushels has already been stated a.
The surplus carried over last July IN excess OIL
,be minimum in 1882. Gus Of this supply Tor
rho cron year about 364 .34n000 bushels Will be
reouired for seed and food, leaving lS4.O'i'9o'
bushels available for export Deductlhg '1e
ouantitv which has gone ont Of the country III
tho four months. this would still leave available
for eynort November abDIt ll2.0O0.00O bushels
r. does not seem probable, from foreign reports
of the crops this year, that as mucl as lo4'VVV,vVO
bushels will be required ABROAD at auN Pi'TE
On the other hand, thc large exports IN july;
August and September may be partly a'tilp"ud
to fine short crops in Europe last year and to me
nnnsnaI exhaustion of European stocks. On NAV
snpposition exports OF much less than ll2,OOO;oV!
bushels during the remaining eight months lnl5l,.
not appear Inconsistent with re silpHTenl' %
II 600 900 bushels IriOr 10 November l. IL SONS
fair TO conclude tlat the enormous stochs ia
f;nbt in this country which have bcc1 accnmu-
latin since Jniy. and in visible supply alo 70. no"
reach 81 600 900 bushels. against 39.Oou'oOo
bushels a year ago. correctly fOrcshadow large
ovcass Of supplv over demand, 80 that prices dur
;no thc remainder of the crop year may RUE
unusually low, notwithstanding Tie r"pp,"L "e-
crease in yield. w w. w.
New-lorS, Soy. 81, ~