Los Angeles herald., 1891-10-23
A Forecast About the Com
ing Crop.
The Probable Amount of the
Florida Crop.
No Reason tOsAnticipate Very Low
Prices.
Estimate as to the Florida CrOp-Those
Oranges Bringing Better Prices
Than Last Year-satisfactory Fig
ures Probable in California.

on the prospects OF the coming orange
crops:
Although it is still little early to
make safe estimates in regard to the
California crop, and there is nothing
reliable upon which to base guess as
to the probable prices which will be
obtained the present season, we are
prompted to indulge in speculations
regarding the outlook by the receipt OF
letters from prominent dealers and the
discussions upon this topic noticed in
our Florida exchanges.
We confess that we are q good deal
disposed to look upon much that is
written as prompted by desire on the
part of the trade to bear the market.
This suspicion, of course, is not justified
as regards all who write upon the sub
iect, but it is impossible not to feel
that it actuates many who rush into
print to create the impression
that the quantity of fruit to go upon
the markets this winter will be unpre-
cedented in quantity. This talk has
already created a rather panicky ten
dency among the Florida growers, and
yet some of the most reliable and best
informed men anticipated no difficulty
in finding a market at fair prices for all
really good fruit,
Among the letters received which re-
fer to this subject is one from H. K.
Pratt, of Minneapolis, well known here,
who says
For the last two weeks / have been
posting myself on the estimate of the
crop of Florida. have received letters
from the commission men, speculator
packers, growers and railroad men,
enough to make small volume, and /
inclose you few of some of the most
important ones some are well known in
Riverside, and others from disinterested
railroad men. so that your people may
have fair estimates of what they may
expect to compete with in the way of
Florida oranges this coming season.
In all OF the letters have received
not one has estimated the crop under
100000, and there are more that
estimated the crop at $500, 900 to 4,000,-
900 boxes, than any other figure. My
judgment in the matter is that there
will be 4 200 900 boxes, for have never
seen season in Florida where the esti-
mate has not fallen very much short of
the actual results. There are more
oranges in Florida this season than both
Florida and California raised last year.
Probably 30 per cent. more than any
season yet known.
In addition to the enormous crop in
Florida l understand that your state
also has large per cent. over last
year. This fact and the fact that every
city IN the United States will be full of
cheap fruit. both green and dried, which
is abundant everywhere, should place
as all in very careful attitude in lay
ing our plans for the coming year,
/ think the orange growers of Southern
California are intelligent enough and
wise enough to want to look these mat
ters ssquare in the face as they are, and
have given you the estimates of as re-
sponsible men as handle oranges, and
from disinterested parties as can be
found, and from men in as good position
to know whereof they speak as any.
Thacker Bros. estimates the Florida
crop at nearly three million boxes. J.
A. Harris, former president OF the
Florida Fruit exchange, makes the same
estimate. A prominent Florida railroad
man gives $500, 900 as his estimate, and
some OF the more extravagant fruit men
think it will greatly exceed four million
boxes.
already commenced, and though the or
anges are still sour they have sold as
high as four dollars per box. This is q
better figure than was obtained at this
time last year. It is an encouraging
indication that the fruit is ripening
early and that such extensive ship
ments are being made. Money is far
more plenty than last year, and if the
Florida crop is not held back as during
last winter there is reason to believe
that it will find market at satisfactory
prices.
Mr.. Mann, the president of an organ
ization known as the Home Market, is
quoted in the Agriculturist as saying
that the cry of "big crop" is respon-
sible for some Generalization. He con-
ti1ues.
A minimum estimate of 3,500,00
boxes, purporting to have been care
fully prepared by conservative men,
has been authoritatively published and
widely circulated. Reading between
the lines, the impression is conveyed
that the crop is likely to be much
greater. This alarms the grower and
misIeads the buyer, and makes possible
the purchase of fruit at rs cents to 81 .25.
He insists that the crop is not large
one. On the contrary, he says:
l am positive it is relatively the small
est ever produced in the state. ] mean
by this that we shall fall behind the
ratio Of increase for the last five years,
which would give us 1900, 900 boxes this
year. do not think it will exceed last
years crop (2,5O0,O0O) by hundred
thousand boxes.
Ii you have gathered any fruit you are
aware that its appearance on the tree is
very deceptive this year. Last year the
exposed and forward bloom on the out
side was frosted and the fruit grew on
the inside, and grew to enormous size,
but 1t did not show up, hence the under
estimate. This season the crop is on
the limbs that rested last year, there is
none in the interior, it is all in sight,
and much of it at the tips of the limbs,
bending them down, giving the casual
observer the impression that the trees
are overloaded. Again, it is all small
1t will take 30 per cent. more in number
to fill the boxes than last year. In
other words, if we have twice as many
oranges as last season, which we have
not, the crop would amount to but
5000, 900 boxes.
/ have visited most Of the orange dis
tricts during the last sixty days looking
this matter up and, excepting a few
points where there is really an increase,
the growers in each section are thor
euQhIy convinced that, while the crop
In their particular section is short, it is
verv large in all the other sections,