Fort Worth gazette. [volume] (Fort Worth, Tex.) 1891-1898, 1891-07-16
The Henry Ciews Circular.

NEW YORK, July 11.-Afairs at the Stock
Exchange are still dull investment trans
,ctious being limited, and speculative op-
Iations confined to maneuvers for the ad-
-aDtage of transient slight fluctuations in
prices. The hesitancy is not due to any
hing unsatisfactory in the conditions in
riusicaily affecting the current value Of
securities; on the contrary, those condi-
ions seem TO be regarded as warranting
better range Of prices than now exists, pro-
riding all other influences were equally sat
factory.
The real cause of the postponement of
operations lies in hecouded condition of
he foreign situation and in the uncertainty
10 what may be its outcome within the
amaining half of the year. The position of
.fairs at the European financial centers,
.hougb Al the moment more settled than it
mas been, is still far from being 4 hopeful
one. II might be reasonably expected that
he arrangements growing out of the dis
Hstcrs of last fall had now been so far ad-
!usted rs to involve no further danger, were
Il not that new difficulties have TO be faced
between now and December. The Argentine
danger has been reopened by the congress
If that republic Suspending for three
months the laws relating to the collection
u debts; which, though it may not vitally
affect the Argentine banks, is calculated to
put 4 severe strain upon commercial and
financial houses which have already been
seriously weakened and whose credit is
suffering from their large guarantees TO
Argentine undertakings.
II turns out also that the balance of Rus
sa's claims upon foreign banks and bankers
5 much larger than has been supposed
During June, about 81, 900, 900 of gold was
sent TO St Petersburg. and it is understood
hat Sl5,OO0OOO more will have to be with
irawn from the Bank of England for Russia
Il July and August Beyond this drain
gpl1 1s tod 10 I,a 7
n considerable amounts to Germany and
Holland; and the "stay law' adopted by
he Argentine congress is likely 10 cause an
early outflow of gold to that country. The
100000 600 of gold which is now doing such
important service in buttressing confidence
IN London, and indirectly also TO Continent
tal centers, is therefore destined to drafts
which will, at alater stage, withdraw that
much needed support, and place the gold
beyond the reach of the wants that will
press heavily upon the heels of deficient
haryests.
This very important crop question is now
assuming measurable dimensions. An emil
nent English authority on grain statistics,
while anticipating an almost average British
crop Of wheat, estimates the deficiency in
France at l3O,0O0,0O0 bushels, ana some
french calculators place the deficit as high /.
az l15,0O0,000. The total European def /
cheney TO be supplied from external sources, /
-llc iAuBllSu tSlllHdtOr AT :
bushels OF wheat; or, il we We're TO accept /
he figures of the French statistician for .
France, the total European deficit would be .
about $50, 000, 900 bushels. Seemingly, there
ore, II may be assumed that Europe will /
ave TO import about 400, 600, 900 bushe of |
wheat. Such a demand implies higher
PRICE for that cereal than has prevailed ,
iuring late years. and, were the price eSti-
mated at the ccnfessedly low figure of 81
per bushei, it would follow that Europe
viii have to pay $500, 00O, 600 to other parts
II the world for this cereal, which is an
amount almost without precedent. Our
swn crop is variouSly estimated between
oOOUOOO0 and 55OOOO,0oO bushels; and, as
prospects now stand, $50, 600, 900 is perhaps !
fair estimate. Estimating our domestic
requirements for various purposes at 360,-
100000 bushels, we should have, at this
-ate, surplus of 100, 900, 900 bushels for ex-
port, assuming the home stock to remain at
Is present quantity, whatever that may be.
According TO these estimates, we are in
position to furnish to Europe close upon-or
possibly fully-one-half OF its total required
IMPORTS of wheat. This means that this
me tenn of our exports will amount TO
something near 500, 600, 900. To the United
States, this is q very exhilarating prospect;
out TO Europe IL is very gloomy one Even
were the European nations in a prosperous
condition, such an extraordinary necessity
be APPALLING; but, coming after an enfeebling
financial crisis, on the heels of a large drain
II gold into Russia, aud at a time when in
1ustry IS contracting and foreign trade is
languishing-w may be the possible re-
suit Of these short harveStS TO Europea 1t
IS useless 10 predict and it is imperative TO
Wait for consequences. The present atti-
Ide Of expectancy assumed by Wall street
IS the only safe and wise one under such cir
instances. II is not likely that we shall
Dc permitted TO reap this advantage of a
great crop without some sort of drawback.
lu- II IS wise 10 wait and see in what form 1
hat drawback ia likely to come. Europe !!
Nil find il impossible to pay us for our
Wheat without making some sacrifice She A
viii offer her products to US at low prices, !
pr consign them for sale at what they will
orlng; If we accept them freely, our wheat
WI be so far paid for in goods instead of
gold; if we buy only cur usual quantity of
imports, then Europe will be compelled to l.
pay Us largely in CUP securities held there;
and, In that case, the settlement will not be
oAducive TO buoyancy in the New York
took market For these reasons, we ad-
-se moderate expectations, at least until
lie future of Europe becomes palmer.