The Roanoke times. [volume] (Roanoke, Va.) 1890-1895, 1891-01-22
A PROPHETS PREDICTIONS
What Farmer Samuel Benner
Says Of the Wear 1891.

|
interesting and valuable reading.
Nowadays everybody knows Samuel
Benner, but few years ago he was
comparatively unknown, although his
first book of predictions, which ex-
pounded his system of reasoning from
cycles, was published as far back rs
1874. In a revision of the work made n
few years later, Mr.. Benner practically
predicted tho occurrence of the recent
panic, though, as he himself says,
special causes led to its coming a little
sooner than anticipated. His predic-
tions now made. which arc published by
the Record and Guide, of January 10,
are as follows:
The brilliant outlook at the beginning
OF 1890 for higher prices for iron and
stocks was blighted during the past
summer and fall by the persistent ne
cessities of London capitalists realizing
on our securities. in consequence OF the
collapse of speculation in South Amer
| lea, producing a continued depression in
our stock market, ending in financial
panic.
There is wide difference between q
yearly panic in money and a periodical
| panic in trade.
One is the alarm of tight money.
raised nearly every spring and fall in
New York City, while the other is cycli-
cal, and is the inevitable result after
period of wild speculation and inflata-
ton in business.
The panic of November, 1890, was n
financial e-premature-to
fulfill the predicted panic for 1891, and
| will soon SubSide
An inflated basis for pig iron, railroad
stocks, wild speculation in trade, and
over-eXpansion of credits are essential
conditions to precede panic that would
result in reaction of trade. These
clements wero lacking prior to the late
financial furry.
Now, what is the business outlook for
the opening year?
There is no good reason why finan-
cial disturbance ut home or abroad
should produce revulsion in trade in
this country at this time, and when
no adverse national legislation is in
sight for year at least.
The Mckinley tariff, the silver bill,
and the enormous Ire asury disburse-
ments forbid!
The Mckinley tariff is the mainstay
to the industrial interests of this coun-
try for the present to create and revive
general business. 1t will give conf
deEce in trade for the coming year.
The greenback, n wonderful money,
is as good as gold to-day anywhere in
this country.
no money has broken as it did in the
panic of 1887, when the expansion of
bank credits and tenfold expansion OF
private credit wore suddenly converted
into specie demands. Farmers for years
aftelward were required to dig the
ground to pay debts in specie, which
were contracted in wild money in
| fation
No reduction of the tariff now, as in
the year 1856, which was Immediately
followed by panic and general suspen-
sion of the banks, and nearly all paper
money at discount, which entailed
heavy losses upon the public.
No reduction of the tariff now, as in
1870 and 1872, which aided and created
the commercial crash of 1878
Had iron and stocks reached hirh-
price basis during the past year. and
had Congress adopted low tariff in
stead of the Mckinley bill, this severe
financial crisis would have dcplorablo
disaster, resulting in revolution of
trade at once, with sudden shr;nkage
in prices and general collapse in bust
ness throughout this country
The business situation is in pros
porous condition-trade is upon Il sound
basis; the circulating money was never
better; there is good money in any re-
quired amounts to movo the crops, and
to produce any manufactured commod-
lty that is wanted; agricultural products
of all kinds bring good prices; the for
eign market will take all we can spare
In view of the favorable outlook and
the phenomenal expansion and sCecula-
ton in our Southern and Western
States, with the promise of an album
dant'crop the coming year, and tho re-
organization of financial affairs in
Europe, and combinations in our OK
tended railway system, We must look
forward to the speculative boom in iron
and stocks before we can enter upon the
coming periodical revulsion in trade.
predict that the stringency in money
and credits will cease this winter, and
that business and prices will improve
and recover under the working of the
Mckinley tariff, when in full operation,
stimulating trade in many branches of
industry all over this country, especially
in the South, where all manner of
enterprise has become wonder, giving
az short boom in this year 1901.
predict that the season Of 1901 will
be an exceptionally good ono for the
provision trade; corn and pork will ad-
vance materially to high figures by
October next.
predict that this period of imitation
ana activity in the iron industry will
culmlnate in the fall of this year during
the usual autumn stringency, and con-
traction in general business will follow
with dropping prices.
The political complications changing
the complexion of the next Congress,