The Wichita daily eagle., 1891-11-03
WHAT OF THE CROP sITUAr1oN'
There Is No Great Accumulated Surplus.

il has been over-estimated and that suf-
ficient allowance has not been made for
the inferior quality of much of the grain.
While many of those who have looked
the ground over carefully think there is
reason for the belief that the crop has
been officially overeStimated, the infor
nation comes to me from Washington
that the agricultural department. has
surprise in store for the whole world, as
the returns from the agents OF the de
partment really show 4 mucb greater
yield than that officially indicated IN the
October report and that the final esti-
mate will show a crop far away IN excess
of 6O0, 900, 900 bushels.
While this information comes to me
from a party usually possessed OF the
very best means of obtaining informa-
ton, it is impossible to believe that such
manipulation of the official returns
would be undertaken, or that they are
possible, and it is not likely that any
official would So prostitute great office,
nor is it probable that the crop will
much exceed the October indications,
although there can be no doubt that
the threshings are pleasantly disap-
pointing.
The autumnal sowings have been
made under very unfavorable conditions
and are not yet completed in the southern
part of the winter wheat belt. During
Journey through some Of the best winter
wheatstates (recently completed) the area
was reported to be below that of year
ago. the plant small and the termination
uneven while some fields sown more
than three weeks failed to show any sign
of the plant in the absence of the needed
rain.
The secretary of the Kansas state
board of agriculture expires ed the
oDinion that the area sown IN Kansas
was about 75 per cent. as great as that
sown in 1890 while my observations
would lead me to believe this TO be
very liberal estimate. Like conditions
have obtained in western Missouri and
the area, in that part of the state, Is
probably reduced quite as much as in
the adjacent Kansas districts.
As there has been a slight increase in
some of the other winter wheat states
the probabilities are that the area, as
whole. has been reduced by fully 100000
acres while the condition at the end OF
October is incomparably below that OF
1890.
The departmental report indicates an
out-turn of Indian corn exceeding 1000
900 600 bushels or some five per cent.
only below that of the great crop of 1889
when the acreage was somewhat greater
and the crop good everywhere. From
what have seen of the crop l should
place the WELD fully fifteen per cent. be-
low that of 1899 or a crop but little more
than 1900, 100000 bushels. Ordin-
arilv the valley or bottom lands
of Kansas, Missouri and Ne
brsska as well as western Iowa,
produce about third more than the ad-
iacent uplands but this, year this Is, as
rule. reversed and the bottom lands pro-
duce but a poor crop and In many cases
nothing, while the uplandS produce no
more than in 1889.
There are many things to indicate That
there is no more If as much maize avail
able for consumption as year ago, as
then the country was carrying very
large quantities brought over from the
immense crops Of 1888 and 1889 while at
this time the grauarIes are empty, ana
I'm many of the southern and central dis
tricts the crop has been drawn upon
months in advance of the usual time.
In Kansas there will certainly be 100,
600 900 bushels less corn harvested than
two wears since while the same Is, meas
urabiv. true of Nebraska and Missouri
and while Iowa. Ohio aud Indiana may
have somewhat more corn than IN
| 1889 the increased production IN such
states will not nearly make good the
deficit in Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska,
and the crops in some OF the other states
cannot Weld as much as two years since.
Much has been said, by these who are
ALWAYS impressed by present conditions
and forget or are ignorant OF what bas
gone before. of the enormous volume OF
/ the wheat receipts and exports as though
they were something unprecedented
| and indicate an enormous surplus
No one at all informed questions that
| this is. by far. the best crop ever
harvested but admitting, as does the
writer. that it equals the fifteen bushels
per acre officially indicated IN the
| October report it does not show that
we shall export, or are able 70
exnort more than 220, 900, 600,
/ bushels or 81. 900, 600 bushels more
than in 1s79-S0 when the needs
of Europe were 50 much less. IS mat.
/ ter of fact the exports from the Onl1eo
| States have this year been not much III
/ excess of similar periods IN other years
I For instance, from July l 10 oept. ~. ~,
! 1880. the exports amounted 70 oJ,lVV'VV-
| bushels as against 63,6OO,OVO during Tue
same months this year. AGAIN, from
Sept. / TO Oct. II, 1879, the exports
/ from America were 80, 700, 900 bushels as
against 81. 500. 600 bushels this year, and
/ if exports are an indication Of the ex'
tent of the crop, as 50 many nov con
/ tend. then the crop of 1879 must have
greatly exceeded that Of leyL
Then there is another class who fear
/ that we shall not be able TO market al
our surplus az the exports are now less
( tbana few weeks since, but these people
I ignore the fact that October and NOgem-
/ her are usually months Of light exports
/ as thev ignore the fact that at TINS pe-
riod Of the year the whole world - en-
( gagged Ia marketing crops 81 wheat and
rye recently harvested from more than
/ 800. .OO0. 900 acres, and that az least ~
/ Der cent. OF the cultIvators are In that
needy condition which impeis the mar
I keting of their grain. or very large
norton Of il, the moment u - NJ Tor
consumption and often when unit - y
now the case in western Europe. IBIS
process Of over-marketing si~sys ooesIs
a. this time Of year. and no matter ho1', how
deficient the worlds harvest may oe y ~
always take place az the sane season .. IN
l al the cultIva.or reaches a coraItioD