The morning call., 1891-11-29
MARsHALrNG VOTES FOR 1899.

In the National Electoral College of the
last decade 401 members were supposed to
be present to choose President and the
successful candidate had to secure 202 votes.
In the college based on the census OF 1890
there will be 444 members, and a majority
will be DOB. The increase Of ~ members in
the college and of % in the majority is not
equally distributed between the parties.
The Democrats gain 7 votes, TO wit: l In
Alabama, 1 in Arkansas, l in Georgia. l in
Missouri, in New Jersey and in Texas !;
while the Republicans gain IS votes, to
wit: l in California, l in Colorado. in
Illinois, l in Kansas, l in Massachusetts, .
in Minnesota, in Nebraska. in Oregon, >
in Pennsylvania, l in Wisconsin. The
latter also gain II votes from new States
which were not represented in the college
of 1SS0-90, TO wit: 8 from Idaho, from
North Dakota, 4 from South Dakota, 4
from Washington and 3 from Wyoming.
The Democrats nre not expected to carry
any OF The new States. though Montana
may be doubtful. Thus the effect of the
census is to increase the Republican
strength by over three-fourths of the new
vote, leaving less than one-fourth of that
vote for the Democrats.
Ii the States which voted for Cleveland in
1883 should vote for the Democratic candi-
date in 1892 they would cast total vote OF
$50. as less than is required for choice.
Ii the States which voted for Harrison
in 1888 - leaving out New York and
Indiana and including the new States
created since then, excepting Montana
should vote for the Republican candidate
in 1892 they would cast total vote OF 2l0,
- less than Is necessary for choice
| This assumes that the vote Of Michigan
| will be divided-9 going to the Republicans
| and TO the Democrats. If the Demo
Gratis should carry New York they would
/ still fall votes short of a choice. The
[ Republicans could afford to lose New \ urk
| if they carried Indiana, for that would give
them 225 votes, more than is necessary
for choice.
1t would thus appear that the battle
ground in the coming contest will be Presi-
| dent Harrison's own State of Indiana. If
the Democrats cannot carry that it Will not
avail them TO carry Nv York, and Mon
tana, too; if, on the other hand, they can
carry Indiana. with the prospects which
| Flowers victory in New York has left them
| in that State. they are likely TO elect the
next President The past record of H.
| diana becomes therefore interesting. Be-
| fore the war it was a Democratic State, as
! opposed to Whiggery. Bat on the nomina-
| ton of Lincoln in 1860, it swung into the
Republican column, aud largely through
| the influence Of Oliver p. Morton remained
i faithful to the Republican flag for sixteen
| years. II was not till 1876 that it cast its
| Presidential vote for Samuel J. Tilden. In
| 1850 it returned to the Republican fold and
| voted for Garfield over Hancock but again
! in 1884 it was carried by Cleveland over
! Blaine. In 1883 Harrison carried it by a
| slim majority Of 1900 votes.
| inexperienced politicians are apt 10 base
! hopes and fears on the erratic action of
| States in OF years. 1t certainly has hap
| pened that a State has broken loose from
! old party ties and overthrow calculations
| by appearing where it was not expected.
| The case of Maine, which went for Gov
ernor Kent" is in point But such bolts
are rare. 1t takes a great many years OF
| close pressure to change the attitude of a
State on national questions, though IL often
! incidentally strays from the fold at elections
| when national interests ara not ia Issue.
| Nothing is certain in politics, but those who
anticipate that the election of Democratic
| Governors in Massachusetts and iowa pre-
| figures the passage of those States into the
| Democratic column at the Presidential cleo
| tioa of 1882 are probably errlng in judg-
! ment. All other things being equal, in the
absence of any exciting new controversy.
the chances are that the Republican States
| which voted for Harrison in 1888 will. witt
the exception of New York and Indiana
vote for the Republican ticket in 1892, that
the States which voted for Cleveland in
1885 win vote the Democratic ticket in 1892
and that the next years battle-ground will
be, as heretofore, the wel-known doubtful
| States