The Helena independent. [volume] (Helena, Mont.) 1875-1943, 1891-10-21
THE FINANCIAL REVIEW.
4 Week Of Halt in Wall Street,
With . Fair Rally at the
Close.
Business OF the Country at Large
Steadily Improving, but
Nc Boom.
statS,nent or the Grain Urops Of 1900 and
1901, Con, piled by Henry
Clews & Co.

Gtate1nOnt OF the Grain Crops OF 1910 anu
1901, Com piled by Henry
Clsws 8 Co.
New YoRK, OCT. M.-[Spseial. The last
circular issued by tho banking house Of
Henry Clews Il Co., says: Wa have had
another week of halt in Wall street, except
at it's close, when = fair rally set in. The
halt maybe said to have been IN the nature
Of ! reaction from the late rapid boom IN
prices. The bears have done their best to
depress values; but having sold upon an al
ready heavily oversold market, their efforts
have reacted upon themselves, and their
large outstanding liabilities to return Dor
rowsd stock really constitute the main-stay
of the market for the time being. The bulls
show no h%esitanoy in taking any amount OF
stock offered BY the opposite side; but such
purchases are probably made chiefly BY pro-
fessional or room operators, Who calculate
upon making : moderate profit on an ad-
vance expected when the large outstanding
line of shorts come to BIO covered. Proba-
bly, a GLASS OF large operators and the more
conservative among the outsiders have
stood aloof from other and broader reasons.
There have been undoubtedly sound ren-
sons for the recent hating attitude. The
boom has already carried the whole list up
to q much higher range OF values Than were
probably warranted. To IN important
class of holders, who carried a weary load
Of second and third class stocks for many
months. tho advance afforded q chance OF
realizing which was not allowed to pass un-
improved. Those stocks are now in the
hands Of a class who are much lcss able to
carry them thar tho original holders; and
the latter do not at present care to repur-
chase their specialtiss at the current range
Of prices. Beyond this, the more prudent
Of the outsiders realized their profits, and,
though still ardent bulls and prepared to
buy in again at the proper time, prefer to
reinvest upon 4 lower range of quotations.
All this is prudent, and it is assuring to
witness such evidences Of sound methods in
speculation.
II is moreover to be considered that al
though the whole range of conditions at
fectinR Wall street interests is in an un-
usually hopeful position. yet the past rise
in prices has also been very important, II
not quite commensurate with a conssrva-
GlV6 08GlIuAto 0I UdOb0 OOAAlhu x0SUOE6s no
crop situation, which was the principal
cause of the boom, is not yet completely
developed. Between the injury to spring
wheat from the late storms and the In
creased yield of winter wheat, it can only
be roughly guessed what will be the dom e.
mates of the European crop are improving
and may quito possibly reach considerably
larger dimensions than have hitherto been
expected. The cotton crop also can be but
vaguely guessed in it's present stage. Ihs
government October report shows a very
serious decline from the condition given in
the estimates of September, but there is
much distrust that the data on which the
bureau Of agriculture bases its figures may
have been distorted through Influences
coming from the farmers alliance;
and this suspicion is countenanced
by tho tenor OF private advices as
we'll as by the unprecedented volume of the
current receipts Of cotton. There are. how
ever, 30 many contingencies about this crop
for the next few weeks that no expert
would venture a definite estimate OF 1t until
December. 1t is also to be noted that while
the business of the country at large is
steadily improving, yet at present there il
no such boom in general trade as has been
expected from the extraordinary harvest:
this, however. is largely explainable from
the fact the real results of a good harvest
do not come until tho products have been
in a good measure marketed, which, at this
stage, is not true Of any of our farm staples.
Owing to these uncertainties about tho out
come Of the grain and cotton crops, there
is a corresponding uncertainty, for the
Tins being, as TO what may pc the course OF
railroad traffic. While, therefore, there
can be no question about the ultimate
abundance of the crops and of the bsne-
cial effects of that abundance upon the
general trade of the country at a later
period. yet these uncertainties as to Ger
tain details justify some. hesitation IN
speculative transactions, and afford moder-
ate material for helping those who may be
interested in q decline in the prices OF
securities.
It cannot be denied that there arc factors
in the European side of the market that
are hopeful for its future course. The i'm
proved promise of the British harvest has
produced a better feeling in London. That
factor suggests the probability of the i'm
portations of grain falling below what has
been expected; which SO far fnvors a
smaller expectation of gold to this country
than has been calculated upon. Proba-
bilities of this character have produced a
better tone in the London stock market.
the benefit of which has appeared in frmer
quotations for American securities. 1t
seems to be largely duet these favorable
aspects that the Bank of England con-
tinued its rate Of discount at three per
cent, contrary to the general expectation
that it would be advanced; the action Of
tho bank, however, may also have been in
fuenced by the fact that the exports of
gold to tho United States have within the
last week or ten days shown some bate-
ment. ,
At this point money, both on call and on
time, works e%asisr, owing to the imports of
gold and the declining demand from She
interior for currency. This feature facili-
ttaes the carrying Of stocks and is so far a
bull factor of some Importance.
For tho present, the situation warrants
conservatism. Tho halt in the upward
movement is liable to produce frequent
temporary drops and quick rallies in prices;
md it is advisable to wait for the periods
of such fluctuations M the safest occasions
for either buying or selling. But notwith-
standing the prudence of these reserva-
tions, l see no reason for any weakening Of
confidence in the ultimate revival OF the
boom and in q further advance of prices
when the later benefits OF large crops and
of abundance of money make themselves
more broadly felt.