The morning call., 1891-02-04
SHALL we HAVE MORE RAMP

SHALL WE HAVE MORE RAIN?
At this time last year people were specu-
lating on the probable consequences OF the
deluge to which the State had been SUB
iected. The same people are now wonder
ing whether the crops will be injured by the
drought As it befell, the harvests of 1890
did not suffer from the unusual precipita-
ton; and thus far the reports from the
country do not warrant apprehenSons of
crop failures from want of moisture. In the
Cffice of the clerk of the weather no almanac
is kept, and one year runs into another to
form a meteorological cycle. The surplus
of rain which lay to the credit Of the wealth
er account in March, 1890, is being drawn
upon to make up for the deficiency of
1S90-91.
According to the report of the Signal Serv-
ice Bureau the total rainfall Mt San Fran
cisco from July l. 1890, to January 81, 1891,
was 456 inches. as against 1851 inches dur
ing the corresponding period of 1SS9-90.
Both were phenomenal years. The rainfall
Of the winter of lSS9-90 was the heaviest
ever noted since records were kept The
rainfall of 1S90-91 was the highest ever
known, with the single exception OF that of
1S50-5l. The one compensated for the other.
If we had had as heavy precipitation this
year as last much agricultural land would
have been water-Soaked and unfitfor cultiva-
ton. As it is the earth still retains suffi-
Gent proportion of moisture from last years
rains to stand light rainfall during this.
The rainy season is generally rPckoned to
end on March 31st. But in some years, es-
pecially alter dry winter, considerable
rain falls in April. Assuming that we have
three wet months yet to hear from, and
taking San Francisco as a criterion of the
whole State-which is not correct, rs the
rainfall here affords no gauge of the rain
fall in the upper Sacramento or lower San
Joaquin valleys-we are short, as the rec
ords now stand, about IS inches of rain :;
that is to say, is inches of rain ought to fall
between the present time and April 30th to
bring the precipitation up to the average
We may call that average % inches, and we
have only had ). At Saeramento-whieh is
better type of the State than San Francisco
Is 68 inches have fallen toward the average
of 1851. Sixteen more inches are due at
the capital 10 bring the precipitation up to
the average.
NeatherwiSe philosophers are making cal
culations as 10 the probability Of a rainfall
during the next three months which shall
bring the total up to the average They
figure that when the three first months of
the rainy season are dry the three last
months are sure to be wet; and the records
are called into requisitiOn to prove that this
has been the case. OF course, if twenty
three inches were due in San Francisco
every winter, and the first half of that sea-
son showed five inches, it would be certain
that the last half would show eighteen. The
difficulty is that twenty-three inches are
an average and not a uniform rule; in q
series of years many [all short and
many exceed that average. There is no
guarantee that we shall have more rain In
February, March and April than we had in
November, December and January. As we
remarked above, meteOrOlogy takes no ac-
count of years but deals with cycles.
The rainfall is of Importance in two re-
spec;s. To produce crops the soil must re-
ceiye certain quantity of moisture from
the skies But it is far from being settled
how much IL needs, OF how much it can
stand. Fine harvests have been made in
the southern San Joaquin Valley with only
ten inches of rain; and farmers in the upper
Sacramento have not complained when they
had forty inches In the few parts Of Spain
where cereals are grown abundantly, twelve
inches of rain are considered an ample suf-
ficiency. So far as the public health is con-
cerned-which is the ether respect in which
the rainfall is a consequence is agreeable
to note that the want of rain this season
has been followed by no increase of disease.
The mortality is considerably less than that
of last year and though deaths from dis
ease of the respiratory system are numer-
Gus, they are not more numerous than in
normal years, and no other form of disease
shows an increase.