Fort Worth gazette. [volume] (Fort Worth, Tex.) 1891-1898, 1891-10-20
witness such evidence, of sound methods

witness such evidences Of sound methods
in speculation.
Il is moreover to be considered that al
though the whole range Of the conditions
affecting Wall street interests is in an IN
usually hopeful position, yet the past rise
in prices has also been very important, If
not quite commensurate with eonserva.
tive estimate of those bullish factors. The
crop situation. which was the principal
cause Of the boom, is not yet completely de-
veloped. Between the injury to spring
wheat from the late storms and the in
creased yield Of winter wheat. it can only
be roughly guessed what will be the domes-
tic output Of that cereal; while the esti-
mates Of the European crop are improving
and may quite possibly reach considerably
larger dimensions than have hitherto been
expected. The cotton crop also can be but
vaguely guessed in its present stage. The
government October report shows 4 very
serious decline from the condition given in
the estimates Of September, but there is
much distrust that the data on which the
bureau of agriculture bases its figures may
have been distorted through influences
coming from the Farmers Alliance; and
this suspicion is cOuntenanced by the tenor
Of private advices as well as by the unprece
dented volume of the current receipts of
cotton. There are, however, so many con-
tingencies about this crop for the next few
weeks that no expert would venture def
mite estimate of it until December. It is
also to be noted that while the business of
the country at large is steadily improving,
yet at present there is no such boom in gen
eral trade as has been expected from the
extraordinary harvest; this, however, is
largely explainable from the fact the real
results of good harvest do not come until
the products have been in a good measure
marketed, which, at this stage, is not true
of any of our farm staples Owing to these
uncertainties about the outcome of the
grain and cotton crops, there is a CORE
spending uncertainty, for the time being
as to what may be the course of railroad
traffic.
While, therefore, there can be no ques-
ton about the ultimate abundance OF the
crops and of the beneficial effects of that
abundance upon the general trade of the
country at a later period. yet these uncer-
tainties as to CERTAIN details Justify
and afford moderate material for helping
those who may be interested in a decline in
prices of securities.
1t cannot be denied that there are fac
tors in the European side of the market
that are hopeful for its future course. The
improved promise OF the British harvest
has produced better feeling in London.
That factor suggests the probability of the
importetions of grain falling below what
has been expected; which so far favorS
smaller expectation of gold to this country
than has been calculated upon. Probabil-
tiles of this character have produced bet
ter tone in the London stock market, the
benefit Of which has appeared in frmer
quotations for American securities. 1t
seems TO be largely due to these more IA
vorahle aspects that the Bank of England
on Thursday continued its rate of discount
at per cent, contrary to the general ex-
pectation that it would be advanced; the
action Of the bank however, may also have
been influenced by the fact that the exports
of gold to the United States have within
the last week or ten days shown some
abatement.
At this point money, both on call and on
time, works easier, owing to the imports Of
gold and the declining demand from the in
terror for currency. TITS feature facili-
tates the carrying of stocks-and is SO far
bull factor of some importance.
For the present, the situation warrants
conservatism. The halt in the upward
movement is liable to produce frequent
temporary drops and quick rallies in prices;
and it is advisable to wait for the periods
of fluctuations as the safest occasions for
either buying or selling. But notwithstand-
ing the prudence of these reservations,
see no reason for any weakening of conf
dence in the ultimate revival of the boom
and in a further advance of prices when the
later benefits of large crops and of
abundance of money make themselves more
broadly felt HENRY CLEws.