The Iola register., 1891-07-10
THE NKaRo.s pKsrINv.
The Negro's Future Home the Southern
LOWlands.

Hasty generali7ations concerning the
future numerical strength OF the negro
in this country. based on his proper
tionate high birth rate, and the mis-.
leading reports of the census OF 1870,
have done more than anything else to
render the negro problem a question
for political manipulation. Only two
years ago the presiding officer of po-
litical convention stated that at no dis
tant future the colored population would
reach fifty millions. Statements such
as this are regarded with different de-
grees of satisfaction, and if true the
negro himself would soon overrun this
continent.
The crudity of statements such as
this, which can be used so disastrously
for political purposes, Is shown by Gen.
Francis A. Walker in the July Forum.
In an article sketching the future of the
negro, based on the statistics of the
race back to 1908. when the slave trade
was abolished. AT that time, or from
the census of 1910, the negro numbered
700. 900 or 10 per cent of the entire pop
ulaJion. In the recent census he is but
11.9 of the entire population, or. while
the white population has increased six
ten fold. Taking the statistics by ten
ard twenty year periods since 1910, Gen
eral Walker shows that the increase by
per cent has declined steadily, and as
serts that in all probability this steady
reduction in the negro's relative i'm
portance in the population will never
be reversed.
In confirmation he examines in detail
the respective birth and death rates in
% southern counties of equal popula-
ton, black and white, based of the
tenth census, and finds that per 1000
births of those born and dying, the rate
for whites was 100. against l40.8 blacks.
The proportion of death rates between
blacks and whites in the large cities is
greater against the blacks. In New
Orleans the death rate for whites was
1851, blacks, 80. In st. Louis, whites
was 1919, blacks. 33.7S. These results
show that the negro race is maintain
ing its rate of increase only by means
of very high birth rate over ayery
high death rate.
Another fact worth noting Is the fu-
ture geographical distribution OF the
negro, now that he can move freely
from place to place. AS a slave, the
tropically bred negro was forced to fol-
low the interests of his northern bred
master. often into regions where he
lived only at a sacrifice of vitality.
Comparing between 1SS0-90 the rates
of increase in Delaware, Maryland,
Virginia. Kentucky. Missouri, Tennes-
see and North Carolina. with the cot
ton growing states, it is found to be 10
per cent in the latter against per
cent in the former. The inference is
that in those parts OF the country where
the negro is not an economic necessity,
the black population will become more
anG more reduced by the entrance of
vigorous white element. Industrial
considerations at the same time will
draw him to his more natural habit at
the gulf states, where the white man
cannot take his place. Whatever growth
may be expected from the cOlOred race
will take place there. and it is not prob
able that a race so limited in its range
will ever reach to One-third even of 90
10000.
To recapitulate, the negro in 1870
was one-fifth the population: in
1910, but one-sixth: in 1860, one
seventh; in 1890, less than one
eighth. Industrial reasons and natu-
raj tendencies are draining him off
toward the low lands of the Gulf of
Mexico, and there his greatest rate of
increase will be felt, which in the na-
ture of things will be constantly de-
crcasing in its relation to the total pop
ulation.
Facts such as these indicate that the
negro problem will become less and
less rather than more and more polit-
ical, and that the solution may reason
ably be left to the operation of physio-
logical and economic laws.