New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1891-10-30
CAMPBELL;.S FORLORN HOPE.
A REVIEW OF THE GOVERNORS CHANCES.
FIGURES THAT SHOW HOW sHADoWY IS DEMO-
CRATIC HOPE OF SUCCESS IN OHIO.

daily with increasing confidence at the headquarters o.
the Democratic state Committee that Governor camp
bell will somehow pun through I'm his fight Tor reeec-
ton are all based the assumption that the Democratic
candidate will repeat his fortunate run OF two years
ago. and carry the state without the aid Of plural
ty in Hamilton County. Hamilton County Is hu-
mtted to be beyond hope by the friends Of the Gov
ernor and the aim and end Of their present calcuar
tions Is to show that Mr. Campbell win have plural
ity In the State outside Of Cincinnati large enough 70
overcome any probable adverse vote there. Inc hsh
Of finding majority in the other eighty couii-
ties OF the state Is amde comparatively easy al hrsI
sight by a glance at the votes in the last TWO cam
palgns-those of 1889 and 1890.
In 1889 Mr.. Campbell defeated Governor FORAKER
bv 1882 votes OF this plurality 1883 votes came
from Hamilton County, so that the Democratic Canal
date did really have clear balance OF 1913 LII te resi-
OF the state Last year the Republican state uche' ~
a plurality of 10 800. Put $500 votes were cohVriDuV
nv Hamilton County, and Secretary Ryan carried inc
rest of the State by only 2,44o On tle Ueinp'',o
and plausible assumption then, that the Sate ou'uo
Cincinnati is, at most, rather Democratic tnan re
nublcan the Democratic managers here have had but
little trouble i'm figuring out fair chance OF victory
next Tuesday But a close analysis OF the Vote
throughout the state last year and the year before VIII
soon convince unbiased inquirer That the DaslS Vi
calculation adopted by the Democratic committee 10
wholly misleading and ilusory. In the hrst place.
all the other candidates the Republican state uche
were elected 1882 though the nominee for Governor
defeated. The plurality for the state treasurer
for instance, $685. an average figure; yet that
official was defeated in Hamilton County by 1,loo
votes so that he carried The state outside Cincinnati
by 4,79. The vote of last year, therefore, when hr
Ryan had plurality of only 244O outside Hamilton
County, and that for the state ticket in 1852 oners
the OF comparison favorable in every way to
Democratic spectators. Republican strength through
4. lQGf
while that of the Democracy maintained in pro
portion TO the total vote cast at the highest notch
The conditions outside OF Cincinnati all advan-
tageous to the Democratic candidate, as they were In
almost every State In the Union, and but for the re-
volt within the party against the Administration at
Columbus, the State would certainly have gone Dem
ocratc. There was no serious labor farmers party
movement then to draw off Democratic votes, and all
political elements in the State had virtually coasced
against the Republicans
In spite of all these favorable circumstances,
the Democratic candidate for Secretary Of state
was left in a minority Of nearly $500
in the eightyseven counties OF the State, excluding
Hamilton. Is there any ground for believing that
Governor Campbell do well now in these
counties the State ticket did last year? For in
creased majonties he would naturally look to the
Democratic counties OF the State OF Ohio's eighty
eight counties, thirty-eight considered safely
Democratic under ordinary circumstances. BY
curious coincidence they fail in the main into two
marked phlcal groups, running up and down
the whole western end Of the State and the other
stretching the central northern part along the
line of the Pttsburg, Fort Wayne and Chicago Rail
road. There thirteen in each Of these groups.
Just east of the centre of the State another smaller
group Of counties, and there five more In the
Ohio River section In the first group the
counties of Butler, Montgomery, Darke, Shelby, Au-
glaze Mercer, Van Vert, Allen, Paulding, Defiance,
Williams, Henry and Putnam-names which soon
to suggest political Bourbonism of the most genuine
flavor to any traveller through the State Butler
County, the first, is the home Of Governor Campbell
1t has twice as many Democratic voters as Republi-
can. 1t gave 1924 Democratic majority last year and
nearly $500 the year before, when Mr. Campbell made
his first campaign. Many Republicans gave him
complimentary vote in 1889 who will not support him
now and doubtful whether he carry the county
by more than 5000, which IS the normal Democratic
strength.
Montgomery County last year gave the Democratic
State ticket about 200 majority. On a big vote the
majority falls to about 700. Dayton the county seat,
IS large manufacturing town and protection sentiment
is growing there There is chance for Democratic
gain this year over 1890.
Darke County was Democratic last fall by over
900 its usual majority. The year before Governor
Campbell had run 100 behind SO he starts there with
a handicap.
In shelby there is an iron-clad and unvarying ma
jorlty Of LOO.
Mercer and Auglaize counties gave Jointly Demo
cratic majority in 1890 OF over 41OO. Mr.. Campbell
had about 1000 in 1882
yanWert County gave $50 against Ryan last year, and
Williams 300. On full poll in 1858 Harrison car
red both counties by small majorties and Major Nc
Kffley is sure to make gains in each. Paulding
was also Democratic last year by 40, though with
a poI 800 greater in 1888, Harrison carried it by
nearly 200
Defiance gave a slightly larger vote against
RYAN in 1890 than against Foraker in 1889,
the average county plurality being 1,4OO.
There has been no change in party strength in Allen
County for several years In Henry County the Demo-
cratic majority has fallen off 80 since 1888, and
Campbell ran 500 behind Cleveland lie can scarcely
do more row than regain his lost ground. Putnams
usual majority OF LOO did not vary greatly In the
last two elections
In all thirteen counties, taken together the Demo
cratic vote Of 1890 maintained at its fullest
strength The showing made was as favorable as in the
last Presidential election in the One-Sded campaign
~ 1880. Governor Campbell viii be extremely lucky
n hes docs net lose from 100 to 1000 votes on tile
NET Democratic plurality in these counties in 1890.
In the second, or central northern group, are the
counties OF Ottawa, Sandusky, Erie Seneca, Wyandot'
Crawford Marion, Bichland, Ashland, Wayne stark
1IoIr,os and Tnscarawas With the exception OF
stark and Erie counties this is chiefly an agricultural
rerIon into which manufacturing interests are slowly
crecninc ottawa and sandusky counties gave to
pcther last year Democratic majority OF 2oOO On
full nou something like that of 1888, they may be
,,octad IN give about 2.1OO. Cleveland had less
than that three years ago. In Erie County, whose
comfy seat Is Sandusly, the Democratic party has
been losing ground. It's minority last year was only
400 as against COO in 1885, and that
in spltc of much more favorable conditions.
In Seneca also the party strength fell away about 2oo
in the two years. Wyandotte and Marion are more
I oc,icnltiral than their neighbors on the north.
They gave total majority against Ryan Of about $500
the same Il, that against Harrison in 1858. in Rich
land Ashland and Wayne the Democratic vote reached
M fullest strength showing Increase OF 500 or 600
over 1885 There will be falling )n this year In
WAYNE County, where Maior Mckinley was deiea'e1
f,r Congress last year by only 200 or 300 while the