St. Paul daily globe. [volume] (Saint Paul, Minn.) 1884-1896, 1891-08-03

have so largely hinged upon out of the
position it has held.
The Democrats are more certain to
carry all the Southern states than they
were in 1888. The force bill has made
them solid. The Alliance may develop
a good deal of strength in some of them,
but will assuredly not give one of them
to the Republicans. Should two or
three of them vote for the Alliance
ticket, which is the extreme of i'm
probability, they would but aid TO throw
the result into the house, where the
Democrats have large majority of the
states. The Democrats may then count
all the 159 votes of the South. The Re-
publicanS will concede the ten votes OF
New Jersey, and the recent diStricting
of Michigan makes seven of the votes
OF that state Democratic beyond
doubt. Adding these seventeen votes to
the 159, and there are 176 secure for the
Democrats. They need Al more to make
the indispensable 223. New York and
Indiana have given big majerities for
the Democrats of late. and can only be
lost next year by local dissensions. 1t
is reasonable to expect them to act
nationally. Connections has voted for
the Democratic ticket in the last two
presidential elections. and strong
pl urality has been had in nearly all the
state elections. Rhode Island gave 400
plurality for the Democrats last spring,
and has averaged rather better than
that since 1t enlarged its franchise.
These four states will add 81 to the roll,
or Is more than enough to elect. The
ten votes of the two New England
states could be left out. New York
and Indiana would assure the sue
cess of the Democrats. But the
voting of last year affords list of states
that may fairly he claSsed as doubtful.
New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Mon
tana, Wisconsin, Illinois and Iowa-were
largely Democratic last year on the con-
gressional vote, and four of them have
Democratic governors. With HARRI-
SON as the Republican candidate the
Democrats would have the best chance
in five of them. They have Seventy-one
votes, none of which can be put in any
conservative Republican estimate.
There are still four other states hereto
fore Republican that have been rendered
uncertain by the Alliance movement.
These are Kansas, Nebraska. Minnesota
and South Dakota. The first two are
evidently in the hands of the new party.
They are all anti-MCKINLEY states, and
there is doubt where they will stand
in the general roundup. Their thirty
one votes cannot be put in the
Republican column at present. at least.
Some will regard Ohio as hopeful for the
Democrats. They have the governor. and
ought to be able to re-elect him, but for
present purposes it is left in the Repub-
lican list. With it the Republicans are
conceded 104 electoral votes. With the
South and New Jersey, Indiana, Rhode
Island and Connecticut, and the seven
certain in Michigan, the Democrats have
2O2 votes, and can elect with either
Ohio or Illinois. leaving out New York.
Massachusetts and Iowa, with % votes,
would answer; or Massachusetts,, New
Hampshire and Montana, or still Iowa
and Wisconsin. Any of these eombina-
tons are reasonable. The November
vote may indicate some Of the elements
in the result more clearly, but the
straws now afioat point with much con-
fidence to the success of the Democrats.