Wheeling register. [volume] (Wheeling, W. Va.) 1878-1935, 1891-08-31
NEED FOR WHEAT
~ TEE EUROPEAN COUNTRIES FULLY SIT
FORTH.
Russia awin Bavs No Export Surplus From "Eh.
Smallest Wheat Crop in Ten Ysars"-Ds-
creased European Wheat Acreage.
Effect Of Lats Storms
london correspondents Of 8radstrests..

cation. IL was with much anxiety that /
rrerjsred the estimate of European
wheat crops and requirements pub
Iished in BrddStreet'S Of August 8. l
toot official estimates of previous
cropS, as far as they were available,
and carefully compared nOn-Official es-
inmates by the best authorities when
these alone were to be obtained AS to
the new crop, my estimates were the
result of the most careful Judgment OF
the evidence that had been forthcoming
week after week, much OF which re-
onired a good deal Of sitting. But
now. three weeks after writing my last
letter, what appeared at the time TO be
the most 'bnllish estimate that
had been published has been
nroved as cOnclusively as it we'll could
he 10 have been a cautious and con-
ssrvative calculation. The fact that
during the three weeks English wheat
has advanced from 4Oa43S per quarter
of eight bushels TO 44a4Ss in the Lon
don market is striking proof OF the
change in the views of the situation
that has taken place. A like advance
has taken place In American wheat in
London, and in Germany and Holland
the rise has been much greater. AS
stated at the time, refrained from
allowing TO the full for the eXtraOrdin-
ary shOrtneSS of the rye crop in all
parts OF Europe. If l had allowed as
much as the reports indicated my esti
mate would have been secuted as alto
pether extravagant. But openly giving
what / regarded as the maximum of
wheat production and the minimum Of
requirements in Europe, l showed an
unprecedented deficiency. Other cal
culators have since come up to my reck-
oning in several particulars, and nOta-
bly in respect Of the Russian wheat sur
plus. But If / had to present the fig
ures to-day ! should make the net Eu-
ropean deficiency Of wheat much great
or than l made it three weeks ago,
because crops have since been injured
by storms, persistent wet weather and
mildew, while the rye crop has been
shown to be even worse than it was
then supposed 70 be, and disease has at
tackled the potato crop, greatly reduc-
ing expectations Of the production Of
that substitute for grain as food. Early
dressings IN France and Spain,
too, prove that the wheat crop
IS smaller than the lowest an
tclpations, and the most recent
reports from ROumania, Italy and Swift
zer!and are less satisfactory than earli-
er reports were. On the other hand,
the advance m the price Of wheat has
increased the probability Of maize and
barley being used extensively instead OF
wheat and rye as food. With all due
allowance for this consideration, how
ever, I should now put the net Europe
an deficiency of wheat at fully 800, OOO,-
600 bushels, instead Of PSI, 200, 900 bush
els as in my previous estimate. II the
advanced estimates Of the crop OF the
United States are derived from sound
altered during the last three
weeks, as the extra surplus prom
ised on your side Of the Atlantic will
nearly balance the extra deficiency on
ours. Moreover, the fears OF extensive
famine in India have been allayed,
though not the fear Of scarcity in GER
tain districts. II America and India
can send to Europe 2O6, 100000 bushels
of wheat and flour reckOned as wheat,
there will be about 100000 bushels,
as stated in my last letter, to obtain
from South America, Canada, Austria
lasia, Algeria, Egypt, Asia, Minor and
Persia. But II the late estimates OF
the American crops are exaggerated,
as seems TO me likely, the quantity TO be
obtained from these minor sources OF
supply outside Europe will be greater
than there Is any reason 10 expect from
these countries, and in my opinion the
reserve stocks of wheat throughout
the world will have TO be drawn upon
more nearly TO exhaustion than they
have been before within the memory OF
the oldest observer.
Experience will prove whether / am
right or wrong in my Judgment; but, at
any rate, 10 is the opinion of purely
disintereSted observer, OF OF one whose
only interest is that OF a consumer of
bread-which counts for nothing.
There is one element in the situation
which has been left almost entirely out
OF account because it relates to an I'M
known quantity. believe that Stats
tics will presently show great defc-
iency I'm the wheat acreage OF Europe,
apart from the known deficiency in
France. as compared with the acreage
of recent years. The reason for this
opipion is that the sowing of the winter
wheat crop was stopped by the prema-
tnre advent OF frost and snow, and many
thousands Of acres of SOwn wheat were
afterward destroyed by frost. IL Is a
nifty that crop statistics are not prompt
lv collected in all countries so that the
multitude of misleading statements,
based on ignorance or interested mo-
tives would have no chance Of obtain
ing credit.
In some quarters Russia IS still cred
tied with q surplus Of az least 4O,OOO'OOO
bushels OF wheat, but such reckoning
seems 10 be utterly unwarrsnte0' Inc
latest reports show that distress from
famine is already severe in several
provinces. and that large quantities OF
seed wheat will have to be supplied TO
the peasantry. The prohibition OF rye
EXPORTS from the country will, OF course,
render the demand for wheat less than
10 would otherwise have been, but tneh
IL wopld not have been decided on With
ont clear evidence of the most urgent
need of retaining food ia the country.
There is reason 70 believe that the oe-
fciency of rye this year is much greater
than the average exports OF recent
years have been. A telegram just re-
ceived states that, according TO an
official journal, the rye crop
amounts TO only 100000 poouS
/ (of SO Os pOunds), whereas q
wears consumption is reckoned
6t oo4. 600. eco pools. for food aud seed.
There is no doubt, too, that the Wneae
crop is one OF the smallest grown III
Russia during the past ties years 1nele-