New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1891-08-15
THE RISE IN PRICES OF GRAIN.

A striking change has occurred in the busi-
,oss yvh,l4 within few days. The tone OF
tbe markets has materially altered. Prices are
booming wheat having risen over cents WIN
in forty-eight hours, while rye has cornereu IL
self. Anxieties about money are greatly al
laved bv growing confidence that European de-
mands for American breadstuffs will bring
hither in short time all the gold that is needed
Accordingly. the demand for commercial paper
has improved. and the loan markets show gieaV-
or confidence These changes result, IN gredO
measure. from single act OF the Russian UoV.
eminent, namely, the prohibition OF exports ol
rye 1t is commonly inferred that an enormous
increase in the demand for American "heaV
must follow, because the people IN Europe WIN
have usually consumed about $4,000, OOO ouSh-
els of rye from Russia will be compelled 10 Duy
their grain elsewhere. 1t is the custom Oh
sneculators to assume that the requirements OF
Germany. of France, or of any other country
in Europe. are strictly proportional to popula:
ton, and that the quantity OF gram requlIeu
will be the same whether prices are unusually
high or unusually low.
1t is possible that the differences 50 colhluoniS
drawn from the action OF the Russian Govern
ment may be found in part erroneous lhere
is no reason to doubt that the European demand
for American wheat will be this year far IN
excess of the ordinary demand. There IS no
reason 70 doubt that Europe will be compelled
70 nav large sums for breadstufGs purchased
from this country. But while this Is true' IL Is
possible that there may be exaggeraton IN inc
estimates of the quantity required, and cohSe-
ouenty in the estimates regarding the proDaple
price OF grain.
II must first be remembered that the European
CROP has not vet been harvested in all OF the
countries, so that the actual result OF the years
industry cannot yet be accurately known. AT
tentive examination of the various reports by
the most competent experts in Europe shows
that they vary from each other by many mill
ion bushels in their allowance for the yield OF
different countries. The weather from this
time until the completion Of the harvest VIII
have something to do with the final outcome
The demand for grain from this country may
vet be considerably diminished by Favorable
weather in portions of Europe where the har-
vest has not been completed. But another and
much more important possibility Of error re-
suits from the assumption That the quantity re-
ouired in any country is the same whether
prices are high or low.
Ii is not long since speculation at CHI
caeo and elsewhere caused an artificial ad-
vance in the price of wheat and flour at New
York so that the bakers advanced the price OF
bread At once it was noticed that the con-
sumption was materially diminished. The
bakers complained that q large part OF their
trade suddenly fell off, and this in the largest
city of the New World, where wages are higher
than in any country in Europe and where the
condition of the laboring people is altogether
more prosperous. UnqueStionably similar
advance in the price of grain or Of bread in any
European country will materially affect the
quantity of wheat consumed To what extent
the consumption may be diminished without
general starvation or suffering cannot be de-
termined, but it is plain enough that a material
decrease is possible, and in event of high prices
is probable. Already the prices of grain in
most European markets have advanced so far
that the consumption is likely to be consider
ably diminished But it must not be forgotten
that a moderate decrease in the quantity OF
wheat and rye consumed would mean an i'm
portant change in the quantity required from
this country. 1t is commonly assumed that the
consumption of wheat in many European ooun-
tries is fully double the consumption in the
United States in proportion to the population
Obviously this is because the people of this
country are able to eat more meat, and are in
the habit of consuming more of other kinds of
food, but if bread should become unusually dear
in Europe, life would be sustained upon much
smaller consumption per capita than has usually
been allowed In statistical estimates.
1t is not wise for those who control the opera
tons of the Farmers Alliance, or for the spec
ulators in American Boards of Trade, to reckon
too largely upon an unchanged consumption of
grain by Tie people Of Europe. Before this
crop year closes we may discover that Europe
can supply its needs without famine or starva-
ton, and yet without using as much grain
within a hundred million bushels as has usually
been consumed in years of ordinary prices
Should the prices in this country be artifcialy
advanced, whether by action of spectators or
by the devices of the Farmers Alliance il is
possible that the decrease in consumption abroad
may prove sufficient to bring disaster to MANY
who unwisey buy or hold wheat in the belief
that Europe must have it at any price.