The Roanoke times. [volume] (Roanoke, Va.) 1890-1895, 1891-12-26
THE NEGROES DESTINY.
Roletivo Decrease of Our Colored
Population.
Striking Facts Developed by tho Last
Ccnsus-Sonicthing About tho Flu
turc Distribution OF tho
Race.

Tasty organizations concerning the
future numerical strength of the negro
III this country, based on his proper
tionate high birth rate. and the mislcad-
ing reports of the census of 1870, have
done more than anything else to render
the negro problem question of politi-
cal manipulation. Only two years ago
the presiding officer of political con-
vention stated that at no distant future
the colored population would reach So
100000. Statements such as this arc
regarded with different degrees of salts
faction, and if true the negro would
himself soon overrun this continent.
The crudity of statements such rs
this, which can be used so disastrously
for political purposes, is shown by Gen
Francis a. Walker in the Forum, in an
article sllctching the future of the negro,
based on the statistics of the race back
to 1905, when the slave trade was abol-
ished. at that time, or from the census
of 1910, the negro numbered 10000, or
10 per cent of the entire population.
In the recent census he is but lilo of
the entire population, or, while the
white population has increased 10 fold,
the negro has increased but 10 fold.
Taking the statistics by 10 and 20 year
periods since 1910, Gen. Walker shows
that the increase by per cent. has de-
clined steadily, and asserts that in all
probability this steady reduction in the
Negroes relative Importance in the pop
ulation will never be reversed.
In confirmation he examines in detail
the respective birth and death rates in
% southern counties of equal popula-
ton, black and white, based on the
tenth census, and finds that per l, 1000
births of those born and diving, the
rate for whites was 1901 against 14O.S
blacks. The proportion of death rates
between blacks and whites in the large
cities is greater against the blacks. In
New Orleans the death rate for whites
was 1851, blacks SO. In st. Louis,
whites 1910, blacks 33.TS. The results
show that the negro race is maintain
ing it's slight rate of increase only by
means of very high birth rate over n
very high death rate.
Another fact worth noting is the
future geographical distribution of the
negro, now that he can move freely
from place to place. AS slave, the
tropically bred negro was forced to fol-
low the interests of his northern bred
master, often into regions where he
lived only at IL sacrifice of vitality.
Comparing between 1SSO-0O the rates of
increase in Delaware, Maryland, Vir-
ginia, kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee
and North Carolina with the cotton
growing states, it is found to be 10 per
cent. in the latter against per cent. in
the former. The inference is that in
those parts of the country where the
negro is not an economic necessity,
the black population will become more
and more reduced by the entrance of n
vigorous white element. Industrial
considerations ut the same time will
draw him to his moro natural habitat,
the Gulf states, where the white man
cannot take his place. Whatever
growth may be expected from the col
orcd race will take place there, and it
is not probable that n race so limited in
its range will ever reach to one-third
even of 80, 100000.
To recapitulate, the negro in 1900 was
one-fifth the population; in 1910, but
onc-siXth; in 1860, onc-scventh; in 1890,
less than onc-eighth. Industrial reasons
and natural tendencies are draining h i'm
off toward the low lands of tie gulf of
Mexico. and there his greatest rate of in
crease will be felt, which in the nature
of things will be constantly decreasing
in its relation to the total population.
Facts such as these indicate that the
negro problem will become less and
less rather than more and more n DO
litical problem, and that the solution
may reasonably be left to the opera
ton of physiological and economic laws.