Smyrna times., 1891-08-19

taxation eacD year.
THE European news last week
caused a sensation throughout the
grain producing countries. of the
world. American farmers have been
counting on good prices for their grain
because of deficiency of the crops in
Western Europe, but the ukase of the
Car, which was published on Satur-
day, prohibiting the export of rye from
Russia, produced decided hutter in
all the markets. Rye which hereto
fore furnished cheap bread for the poor
of Europe, is now dearer than wheat,
owing to the Russian order prohibit
ting its export TO other nations of
Continental Europe about 100000
quarters, and statisticians say that
other countries cannot make up for the
withdrawal of this large quantity
America not being able to supply
more than 100000 quarters. Wheat
will be substituted, which will increase
the demand and price for that grain.
In this Russia may find large profit,
but it is possible that the order of pro-
hibitiOn may be suspended after u
time If the supply of rye appears to
be more than sufficient for home con-
sumption.
The New York Tribune on Saturday,
in discussing the effect of this ukase
on the market said:
A striking change has occurred in
the business world within the past fewo
days. The tone of the markets has
been materially altered. Prices are
booming, wheat having risen over
cents within forty eight hours, while
rye has cOrnered itself. Anxieties
about money are greatly allayed by
growing confidence that European de-
mands for American breadstuffs will
bring hither 10 a short time all the
gold that is needed. Accordingly, the
demand for commercial paper has i'm
proved, and the loan markets show
greater confidence. These changes
result, in great measure, from single
act of the Russian Government, namely
the prohibition of exports of rye. 1t
is commonly inferred that an enOr-
nous increase in the demand for
American wheat must follow, because
the people in Europe who have usually
consumed about 100000 bushels of
rye from Russia will be compelled to
buy their grain elsewhere. 1t is the
custom of spectators to assume that
he af 6
France. or of any other country in
Europe, are strictly proportional to
population, and that the quantity of
grain required will be the same whether
prices are unusually high or unusually
low.
1t is impossible that the differences
so commonly drawn from the action of
the Russian Government may be found
in part erroneous. There is no reason
to doubt that the European demand
for American wheat will be this year
far in excess Of the ordinary demand.
There is no reason to doubt that Eu-
rope will be compelled to pay large
sums for breadstuffs purchased from
this country. But while this is true,
il is possible that there may be exag-
geratiOn in the estimates of the guam
tity required, and consequently in the
estimates regarding the probable pric,
of grain
10 Ilu ...- Jo remembered thai tli
European crop has not yet been hAr
vested in all of the cOuntrit.. 80 thai
the actual result of the years industry
cannot yet be accurately known. At
tentiVe examination of the various re-
ports by the most competent experts in
Europe shows that they vary from
each other by many million bushels in
their allowance for the yield of differ
emit countries. The weather from this
time until the completion of the har-
vest will have something to do with
the final outcome. The demand for
grain from this country may yet be
considerably diminished by favorable
weather in portions of Europe where
the harvest has not yet been completed.
But another and much more important
possibility Of error results from the as
sumption that the quantity required in
any country is the same whether prices
are high or low.
It is not long since speculation at
Chicago and elsewhere caused an arti.
fetal advance in the price Of wheat
eAAA hOAt ~ ANGW A0AA ~ tuhb ULG
bakers advanced the price of bread.
At once it was noticed that the con-
sumption was materially diminished.
The bakers complained that large
part of their trade suddenly fell off.
and this in the largest city Of the New
World, where wages are higher than
in any country in Europe and where
the condition of the laboring people is
altogether more prosperous. Unques-
tiOnably q similar advance in thesprice
of grain OF Of bread in any European
country will materially affect the guam
titv of wheat consumed.
It is not wise for those who control
the operations of the Farmers Ali.
ance. or for the spectators in Ameri-
can Boards of Trade to reckon too
largely upon an unchanged consump-
ton of grain by the people Of Europe.
Before this crop year closes we may
find that Europe can supply its needs
without famine or starvation, and vet
without using as much grain within a
hundred million bushels as has usually
been consumed in years Of ordinary
prices. Should the prices in this coun-