The morning call., 1891-06-28
FOOD And POPULATION.
Possible Extinction Of The Human Race by
Starvation.

Mr.. Ravensten, a member of the British
Association for the Advancementof Science,
has been computing the probable increase of
the human race on the earth, says the Balt-
more Sun. He arrives at the startling con-
clusion that in 1S2 years the density of
population upon the globe will be such that
the means Of subsistence will be inadequate
to its support. He estimates the pOpua-
ton of the world Of the present year at
l ,46S, 100000 He finds that the average in
crease every ten years is about per cent.
The sections OF country still open to coloniz-
alton comprise parts of Africa, North and
South America, Australia, OUTLYING islands,
the steppes and the deserts The total area
of all the habitable lands in the world is
over 46 100000 of square miles. OF this
area the fertile or comparatively fertile
lands are over $500. 900 Of square miles,
the bare grass lands, or steppes, 100000,
and the bare deserts 1900, 1870 square miles.
To the steppes he allocates population of
ten to the square mile. and to the desert re-
gons one 10 the square mile. The
bulk OF the population would, therefore,
have to subsist on the 2S,000.000 square
miles Of fertile lands. Comparing the
density of population in India 175 to the
square mile, IN China 800 to the square mile,
and in Japan 264 to the square mile, he ar
riveS at the conclusion that world pOpula-
ton of 207 to the square mile In the Gu tlyable
regions would be fair estimate. This POI
persons 10 the square mile will be reached
in 1S2 years at the present rate of increase,
when the total population of the cnltivable
area would be $3.50 200 COO, and the total
number the earth would feed 1894 100000.
Any further increase OF population must
either be provided for by diminutlon Of
subsistence to each individual, or by some
improved mode of production, or by keep
ing down the future birth rate below the
death rate. Mr.. RavenStein's statistics do
not concern us Of the present generation
very vitaly. We can leave the solution to
our great grandchildren. We have in
creased and multiplied very comfortably
in spite of the ugubriOus warnings Of MIR.
Nautilus, and perhaps they also will multi
ply and Increase in spite OF Mr.. Ravenst TEN.
If any race must 60 to the wall, 1t may be
confidently predicted it will not be the white
race. There will be q Darwinien survival
OF the fittest. The weaker races will disap-
pear before the stronger The Indian will
ultimately vanish from this continent, and
the African in his native land bids fair to be
decimated through the enormous imports OF
the vilest spirituOns liquors and the partic-
ularly deadly diseases of European civlliZa-
ton. The tendency CT population to the cities
must also be taken into account in any COM
parison of people to areas OF reason
able subsistence. Concentration In large
towns always tends to increase production
within a wide circuit around them, es-
pecally in the line of fruits and vegetables.
Two hundred years hence the desert lands
which Mr.. Ravenstein regards as incapable
OF cultivation may blossom as the rose. AL
ready irrig ton is working wonders in the
unpromising soil IN some of our Western
States. Modern science will teach many
ways of increasing the food supply. Mr..
Ravenstein's specuations are plausible and
his statistics suggestive enough, but the fig
ures of to-day may be utterly falsified by
the figures of 200 years hence. Many things
may intervene in the meantime to keep
down population or increase the food sup
ply. The extinction of the race by starva-
tiOn is very remote contingency indeed.
and Mr.. Rayenstein's 182 years bid fair to
stretch out indefinitely before that cOntin-
gencY occurs.