The Seattle post-intelligencer. [volume] (Seattle, Wash. Terr. [Wash.]) 1888-1914, 1891-01-11
IT CAN'T BIZ CALKINS.
Either Squire or a Dark Horse
Will Win the Race.
POSSIBLE VOTE COMBINATIONS.
The Situation Is Good Deal Like
That in November, 1889.
Byron Barlow, One of the Calkins Rep
resentatives, Is Ineligible - Ocosta
Claimant Cannot Secure Solid DEM
ocratic support.

ocratic support.
OLYMPIA. Jan. i0.-[Special.l Senator
Squire has been in very good humor today.
He expresses himself perfectly satisfied
with the prospect, and does not believe
that he can by any possibility be defeated.
1.-The manifestations of good will and
friendship made by members and out
siders are very gratifying to me. am
confident my course in congress has given
satisfaction, and ] am just as confident
that the people appreciate it. do not
care to claim too much, but | feel sure
that the situation warrants a statement
that I will be elected without difficulty
and on the first ballot'i
OLYMPIA, JAM 10. Especial lit is vel
at this time to look at the senatorial situa-
ton squarely in the face and inquire
calmly and candidlyinto the probability of
the election of United States Senator
Squire or of w. H. Calkins The legisla-
ture has been in session since Wednesday
last, and by this time a pretty clear esti-
mate of the relative strength of the two
leading candidates can be made. There
standing has not been ascertained beyond
question, and these probably do not hold
the balance of power. As the matter
stands now, the indications point plainly
to the success of Squire and the defeat Of
Caikins or any other opponent that may
be named.
A plurality of the members of the legis-
lature came to Olympia pledged or in
| structed, openly or tactily, to vote for Sem
| ator Squire. They are backed by strong
and unmistakable sentiment in their re-
| spective communities in favor of the pre-
sent incumbent. Their constituents have
not hesitated to express to their represen-
! tatives their hope that Senator Squire
would be reelected and their expectation
that they would assist by their votes and
interest in bringing about this end. It
cannot be disputed that in every import
ant section of the state, except Pierce
county, preponderance of public opin-
| ion is favorable to Senator Squire,
and in the larger part of them the senti-
mcnt is practically unanimous. In few
| localities, through some extraordinary per-
version of public sentiment, or by the
manipulation of some political manager
| of Judge Calkins, representatives friendly
| TO the latter have been returned. These,
| with the Pierce county delegation, consti-
tute a minority of respectable size,
| probably from twenty-five to thirty votes.
| The strength of the Democrats in the leg
islature is twenty-five votes. Allowing
| Calkins the maximum number of thirty,
| the combined opposition will aggregate
| 1fty-two out of the liz, leaving a mini
mum strength of sixty votes which must
| be assigned to Senator Squire, even by the
| opposition. This gives the senator clear
majority of eight over both the Democrats
| and the opposition Republicans. Inas-
| much as it is necessary for him to secure a
| majority vote of all the members elected,
| or fifty,seven, it will be seen that these
| estimates give him but three more votes
| than are necessary. At the lowest caleu-
| lation, therefore, Senator Squire has
| twice the strength of Judge Calkins, but
| this great margin is only little more than
sufficient to elect him on the first ballot,
because of the fact that the minority po-
| litically opposed to Senator Squire, and
| the minority personally opposed to him,
| or, rather, attached to Judge Caikins,
| when join together combine consider
| able number of votes.
If Washington Republicans followed
| the rule of caucus voting so general in
most other states, no special effort would
| be necessary on the part of Senator Squire
! to secure the nomination and election.
| Judge Calkins would not have lighting
/ chance, and he knows it. His candidacy
/ would be ridiculous and more presumptu-
/ Gus even than under the present circum-
| stances. His hope of election lies in a
1 <Ha oh IS tn
| weaken and reduce Senator Squire
! strength as to prevent election on the first
| ballot. In that case he hopes prolonged
| contest will occur, and that he will in the
end secure enough of Senator Squire's
strength to elect him.
Admitting, for the sake of argument,
that deadlock may occur, or that several
| ballots may be required TO decide what is
| likely to be the result, will it be Squire,
/ Calkins or dark horse? The usual rule
in the case of an extended contest is that
either the leading candidate or another
very much in the minority is finally
/ chosen. The candidate who stands next
to the lead is almost never successful. In
| the light of many historical political pre-
cedents, the overwhelming probabilities
| are for Squire or dark horse, and not for
! Calkins. The maximum number OF votes
| of Judge Calkins is thirty, and it will be
| necessary for him to secure twenty-seyen
| more TO insure his election. Ii can be
stated with reasonable certainty that they
! will not come from King county, whose
| delegation numbers nineteen, out of
| sixty Republican votes from which
it is possible TO secure further
| support. The number OF his possible
| chances is thus reduced 10 forty-one,
from which he must secure twenty-seven
votes, leaving margin OF fourteen. With
out particularzing, II can hardly be
| doubted that Senator Squire has fourteen
friends outside of King county who viii
stav with him through thick and thin.
Not even the Calkins men viii deny that
Squire has many more than that number
pledged TO him, enthusiastic for him, and
| determined 10 secure his election. But
suppose that the senator has only fourteen
men besides King county who Will never
under any circumstances desert him,
/ Judge CaIkins must still secure twenty
seven out of twenty-seven votes added 10
his own supposed strength OF thirty. Can
he do it? II he does, political miracle
will have occurred, more rare and astound.
ing even than the miracles Of old.
In view of these facts and circumstances,
with which Judge Calkins must be Per-
fectIv well acquainted, il Is di1heult TO see
wherein the Tacoma candidate has the
fainrest chance OF success exceptln one
( 9G Fkk4rsr ~