The record-union., 1891-09-29
WAR IMPROBABLE.

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For fully five years the greater powers
of Europe have been looked upon by all
the rest of the world as ready to fly to
arms and engage in war, which means
death, widows, orphans, agony, wounded
men, limbs torn from human trunks.
homes disrupted, trade deranged, values
upset, prosperity checked and ma
tional treasures depleted. But they have
not gone to war. The wolf cry has.
hence, ceased to alarm, and it is with
more than doubt that we hear from day
to day of rumors of war.
The truth is that while European war
is possible at any moment, it is improba-
bic. Russia will prefer to wait more op-
perfume time to advance her ambition.
1t is no time for her to do battle when a
famine threatens her peasantry, when
She is financially distressed, and when
she is in trouble concerning the Jewish
exodus.
The German Emperor prefers to main
tain peace by arming heavily, and only
fiagrant provocation will bring him to
the field of battle with France. Diplo-
macy will serve him so far as Russia is
concerned, for the present. Neither
Italy nor. Austria can, or wish to, plunge
into war without the consent of the other
powers. Turkey has satisfactorily
answered England and the latter has. by a
trick, shown the former how easily she
can gain footing at the gate of the
Dardanelles. But Turkey wants war at
no time, and under no circumstances.
1t will appear to US for some time vet
that the situation on the other side of the
Atlantic is ominous, and it is true that il
is one that may change suddenly into
state of actual conflict. But with short
age OF crops in Europe the complacencv
of Germany, the peace desire of England,
the unreadiness Of Russia, the effort to
placate made by Turkey, the indifference
of Italy and the preference of Austria for
peace even at some sacrifice of spirit, war
in Europe is not yet to be written down
as early probable.
Certainly Emperor William, when he
preached peace so recently and loudly, was
not insincere: there is no reason what
ever to regard him as speaking from un
belief. The visit of the French fleet TO
England did not mean disquiet, nor yet
the reception of the fleet in Russian
waters. They were ordinary visits of
ceremony. France and Russia would
never so openly make manifestations in
tended to operate as a menace to the
peace of Europe.
We have been told that the Republic is
not to reopen the battle fields along the
Rhine. Its heavy arming, naval and land.
may appear to mean threat and insult TO
provoke war, but journals having near
view, notably those of Italy, assure us
that this is a mistake: that the people of
France are ready, but will not take the
Initiative in war; that the strongest
tendency of the French masses is now
toward peace, and that this fact consti-
tutes guarantee that there will be no
war-at least none in which France will
take part, unless it should happen that
the khedive of Egypt should be driven
out and the English seek to establish
their rule. Turkey would, in that event,
protest and France and Russia would
come to her assistance.
But it is said that the Turkish demand
upon the English to withdraw from
Egypt is the result of Russian prompt
ing and portends i'll for peace. We con-
fess that we so viewed ii at first. But re-
Election convinces US that the idea was a
mistaken one, for it presupposes an
alliance between Turkey and Russia,
and the very suggestion is absurd.
Russia could not covenant with Tur-
key without yielding her ambition
TO enthrone the Car at Constantinople.
Turkeys demand, therefore, was inde-
pendent, and, in truth, has been made in
the fall of every year since Gordon fell at
IL hhartoum.
So far as the Balkan States are con-
cerned there is nothing on the surface to
indicate fears of war being entertained
by their people, or that they anticipate
any early change in the territorial divis-
ions of that portion of Europe. Yet these
States are the pulse of the European
sensation that indicate unerringly the
slightest drift toward a feverish con-
dition.
RUSSIA admits of no trifling upon her
side of the Behring Sea. Sealers that
crossed the line and began to take seals
month by Russian revenue cutters. The