New-York tribune., 1891-09-17
Mr.. GLADSTONE PROPHEsIES.
THE GENERAL ELECTIONS-AFTER-A TORY
wHIP-LORD HARRINGTON.
Westminster. Sent.


into account the human certainty that even IL
Mr. Gladstone were alive in the year 1899
he would in the course Of nature De so enfeebled
as to be unable to carry comprehensive Home
Rule scheme These specula,ions in Ministerial
circles are no new things They are entered
upon every day in private conversation, and
frequently more or less obscurely hinted at in
editorial articles. Where the novelty comes in
is the almost brutal frankness with which the
argument is marshalled. There has been nothing
like it since, five years ago, Lord Randolph
Churchill jeered at A" the old in a hurry
BY an odd and undersigned coincidence, Professor
Dicey's article in one magazine has been promptly
followed by the appearance in another Of bit
Of work that shows Mr.. Gladstone Is not dead or
even sleeping. He is down at Hawarden Just
now, popularity supposed TO be taking rest after
the turmoil of a prolonged session. the effects Of
serious Illness and the shock that followed ou the
death of his eldest son. He has made an en-
gagement TO attend and speak at a great gather
ing at Newcastle on the early days Of next month.
After that he has arranged for trip TO Italy,
and it was thought that his most arduous labos
in the seclusion of Hawarden would be limited
by the aluring task Of rearranging his library.
But Mr.. Gladstone has found other work lying
to his hands He has made a minute and ex.
haustive study Of the by-elections which have
taken place since 1866. Marshalling figures and
arguments in the lucid, masterful way that makes
his Budget speeches easy reading, he reaches the
conclusion that the result of the general election
will be to return the Liberals to power with
minimum majority Of 100. This is an exceedingly
unpleasant sketch of the Ministerial feast 1t
is not mere wild assertion made at random.
There are the facts and figures and the application
of the most ordinary principles of arithmetic s
made before the eyes of the reader If anything
else can be made Of them there they are ready Tor
manipulation. But it does not seem that there
is any other way out than Mr.. Gladstone points.
and the situation is not made more soothing for
the Aliniseralists by recollection of the fact that
previous to the election of 1880 he made similar
calculation based on the same principle, and that
though it worked out large majority for the
Liberals, the result of the polling showed that
he had adopted the minimum of promise.
This article, unexpectedly appearing at COM
paratively dull time, has attracted profound al
tention in both political camps. Ministerial
journals pooh-pooh it, but there is no doubt 1t
has finally swept away the last lingering hope
of Conservatives that even II at the general
election Lord salisbury were not confirmed In
power Mr. Gladstone would have a majority 50
small that he would be impotent to carry the
dreaded Home Rule Bill Defeat followed defeas
at the by-elections. Still month after month
and year after year the Ministerialists came up
smiling protesting that seat lost here and there
was nothng-due at worst to Local influences.
The first hesitation in this confident chorus was
observable when Wisbech added another to the
steadily accommodating losses. That was stagger-
ing blow which had notable effect Then came
the voice of Lord Randolph Churchill, crying
over land and sea that Mr.. Gladstones return to
mower by an overwhelming majority is inevitable.
Now appears Mr. Gladstone himself demonstrating
in calm schoolmaster fashion how if two aud two
still make four the general election Will give MIN
o minimum majority of 100 1t being now prao-
tlcaly accepted on both sides that Mr.. Gladstones
return to office is inevitable attention is being
concentrated upon the date Of the Dissolution.
and what will follow on the changing OF sides In
the House of Commons. IL Lord SALISBURY
pleased to make the most of the SeptenniaI Aco
the Dissolution might be postponed into the year
1893 But no Parliament in modern times has
run into it's seventh session, only few living
into the sixth 1t is pretty certain that Dissolu-
ton will take place next year. AT what precise
date will depend on the fate of the Local Govern
ment Bill Mr.. Balfour's hope and expectation
are that he will carry his Local Government BIZ
through both houses at a reasonably early date
that the session will jog along quietly for the
winding up of other ordinary business, and that
lust before harvest time the general election
may be got over. What Mr.. Balfour thinks TO-
day the Cabinet usually agree upon tomorrow,
and if all goes well this will probably prove TO
be the programme of events. In such case the
new Parliament would meet in August or Septem'
Der. but merely to swear in members, elect a
Speaker, and transact other formal business, ad-
ourning till February, 1893 for the dispatch Of
business. Mr.. Balfours belief is that Mr.. Glad
stone would lind it impossible, at least i'm
practicable, to reopen in the year s93 the Local
Government question dealt with in the previous
session. That is an argument he is using with
much force and skill in reply to objections that
reach him from his side TO his meddnng IN
the metter Home Rule he believes to be IN
evitable, but its full accomplishment WILL ne
pleads, be postponed for a year or two II only
next session he is permitted TO legislate on the
subject
| Next week Lancaster races come round ana the
usual parties being made up LORD ot
Oswald has his accustomed circle au Nosteu
Priory, with special train going TO and from the
racecourse Lord St. Oswald was long known In
the House of Commons as Mr. Roland Vim.
Through the Parliament of 1880, when Mr. Glad
stone was in power. Mr. Rowland Winn, in his
| canscity as Tory WHIP night after night through
| successive sessions implacably marched up to the
table in the House of Commons after divisions
| to hear the figures read out which announced
another defeat of the Opposition. But one night
in the session of 1885 he marched up TO the
table under different circumstances, though his
! stony lineaments gave no sign that anything un-
usual had happened Lord Randolph Churchill
might jump up the bench and wildly wave
his hat. The Irish Members, then in league with
the Tories, might shout themselves hoarse with
delight Mr.. Roland Winn, staring stralght
before him. holding piece Of paper in his hand,
! al t,o haH Clb
unfaltering voice read out the figures which pro-
claimed the downfall of Mr.. Gladstones Ministry.
and the incoming of what Mr.. Chamberlain con-
! temptuously called the stopgap government
! 1t was also an end of long stage inssome ono
elses career Mr.. Roland Winns patent Of
peerage was written on the piece of paper he held
! in his hand on the fateful night. The Conser-