The Iola register., 1891-02-13
THE PROPHETS PREDICTION
A CHEERFUL OUTLOOK.
The Forecast of Mr. Samuel Benner, the
Heretofore Successful Prognosticator
of Coming Events in the Com
mercial World, as to the
Prosperity of the
Coming Year.

TMr. Samuel Beuner, OF Vinton coun-
lty, Ohio. who figured out scale, tell
ing the year of prosperity and the year
of depression in trade. Tin the year 1874
predicted panic in 1891 was address
ed By w. w. billiard, of Fort Scctt. to
know what is now the outlook for the
year 1891. His answer was the follow
ing letter addressed to the general pub
lic.-Ed.
The brilliant outlook at the Begin
ming of 1890 for higher prices for iron
and stocks was blighted during the
past summer and fall by the persistent
necessities of London capitalists realiz-
ing on our securities, in consequence OF
the collapse of speculation in South
America of producing continued de-
preston in our stock market, ending in
a financial panic.
There is wide difference between a
yearly panic in money and a periodical
panic in trade. One is the alarm OF
tight money, raised nearly every spring
and fall in New York City, while the
other is cyclical, and is the inevitable
result after period of wild speculation
and imitation in business. The panic of
November, 1890. was financial distur-
bance-p to fulfill the pre-
dicted panic for 1891, and will soon sub
side. An inflated basis for pig iron,
railroad stocks, wild speculation in
trade, and over-expansion of credits are
essential conditions to precede a panic
that would result in reaction OF trade.
These elements were lacking prior to
the late financial furry.
Now. what is the business outlook for
the opening year? There is no good
reason why a financial disturbance at
home or abroad should produce revul-
sion in trade in this country at this
time, and when no adverse national leg
islation is in sight for year at least.
The Mckinley tariff, the Silver Bill,
and the enormous Treasury disburse-
ments forbid. The Mckinley tariff is
the mainstay to the industrial interests
of this country for the present TO create
and revive general business. 1t will
give confidence in trade for the coming
year. The greenback, wonderful
money, is as good as gold to-day any
|
broken as it did in the panic of 1887,
when the expansion of bank credits and
| ten-fold expansion OF private credit were
suddenly converted into specie demands
Farmers for years afterward are requir-
ed to dig the ground to pay debts In
specie, which were contracted in a wild
money imitation. No reduction OF the
tariff now, as in the year 1887, which
| FD1l l1tr
and general suspension of the banks,
and nearly all paper money at a discount.
which entailed heavy losses upon the
public,
No reduction of the tariff now, as in
1870 and 1872, which aided and created
the commercial crash of 1873.
Had iron and stocks reached high
price basis during the past year, and
had Congress adopted low tariff in
stead of the Mckinley bill, this severe
financial crisis would have been de-
plorable disaster, resulting in a reyolu-
tion OF trade at once, with a sudden
shrinkage in prices and general col
lapse in business throughout this coun-
try. The business situation Is In
prosperous condition-trade is upon
sound basis; the circulating money was
never better; there is good money In
any required amounts to move the crops,
and to produce any manufactured COM
modify that is wanted; agricultural
products of all kinds bring good prices;
the foreign market will take all we can
spare.
In view to the favorable outlook and
the phenomenal expansion and specula-
ton in our Southern and Western
States, with the promise of an abund-
ant crop the coming year, and the reor-
ganiZation OF financial affairs in Europe,
and combinations in our extended rail
way system. we must look forward to a
speculative boom in iron and stocks be-
fore we can enter upon the coming per-
iodical revulsion in trade. | predict
that the stringency in money and credits
will cease this winter. and that business
and prices will improve and recover un-
de. the working OF the Mckinley tariff,
when in full operation, stimulating
trade in many branches OF industry all
over this country, especially in the
South where all manner of enterprise
has become a wonder, giving US short
boom in this year 1891.
| | predict that the season OF 1891 Will
be an exceptional good one for the pro-
vision trade; corn and pork will advance
materially to high figures by October
next. / predict that this period OF in
ilation and activity in the iron industry
will culminate in the fall Of this year
during the usual autumn strlngency,
and contraction in general business will
follow with dropping prices. The polit-
ical complications changing the com.
plexion OF the next congress, which Will
be unfriendly to the continuance OF the
policy of protection to home industry,
and the tumult of presidential making
in 1892. with third party corfusion, will
cast their shadows before them, Great
ing doubt as 70 the future, unfavorably
affecting general business. This reac,
ton in trade will not be sudden and
violent, but gradual, giving US fairly
prosperous period during the operation,
OF the present tariff, to continue until
congress passes an act reducing the
duties. Then will follow a panic and
sudden depression in all our industries,
extending to a number of years PRIOR tC
a satisfactory business situation
! SAMUEL BENNER.
Dundas, o., Jan. l, 1891.