The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1891-11-12
THE PROSPECTS FOR HIGHER COT
TON,

The Estimates of the Crop--The Worlds
hequrements-The Probable Course
OF Prices.
Cotton is now selling lower than ever be-
fore known in the memory of most people
now in the trade. The quotation in Sa-
vannah to-day of SIG for middling is low
water mark so far.
AT this price cotton cannot be made.
That is, the average cost of growing it will
De less than the average net result of sales.
IL means distress to the south If continued
ana the question comes eagerly up-what
are the prospects for Improvement?
10 begin, the most apparent fact is that
the planters have brought it all upon them
selves. They have been warned time and
again by the press and by men whose judg-
ment was good and whose ad vice was sincere
that it was poor policy to plant and raise too
much cotton, that there is more profit in a
moderate crop than in an excessive one. The
southern press has again and again urged
plant less cotton and more food stuffs-
make yourselves independent"
In spite of the evident wisdom of this al
vice, last year tho south raised about 1000. -
wv bales of cotton, or about 800, 900 more
IMAM the world needed. The result was
uecline IN prices to poverty point, and next
- NN HpOSsCu i0hueE pEODdUlJ StlRReSUS,
CIley mad more sense, and raised only 6000,-
wv or 100000. Not at oil. Strange as it
may seem, they planted for about as much
as before, and If the production is less it is
not the fault of the farmers, but the mercy
OF providence.
Last years commercial crop was about
o'ooO,OUO bales, besides some 300 900 bales
nelu over into the new crop. 1t is now esti-
mated by the leading authorities that the
present crop, including last years surplus.
WI exceed 100000 bales how much more
or less than this figure we will not under
take to say
now the world does not need so much
cotton. Good authorities estimate that the
u'plus carried over last year from the crop
So- actually marketed was about
I,S9O 700 bales; that is the excess Of the
vislole supply, and the larger stocks OF
splnners. It is estimated that 1000, COG
oaies thls year would have been enough
to 'u lei. lett reasonable surplus
W carry over, FOR some recent til
mates OF increased European consumption
gre not credited on this side of the Atlantic.
us ~ ~ not believed that Europe will do more
yuan barely maintain its last years
sa'e Oh consumption IL It does that, when
a. ~ consider the distress prevailing among
sae masses Of the continent owing to fail
erss Oh cereal crops. notably In the immense
ipie OF Russia, and in minor degree in
LIoSs OF the Others Well-informed and COOL
neaued Americans do not count on any
tt n increase in the European consump-
t on OF cotton. Nevertheless such ma
la lal increase may come if the price
Ne \. low enough to justify new uses.
appears, theu, that, although cotton Is
tH;u an selling below the cost Of p-oduc-
vuon we have more TO sell than the world
wants What is the chance for an advance
~ prlcesi The thoughtless answer would
20 none at all, and this might be correct but
ton. 0e A"'"h as speeuia-
81 nave no hesitation in saying that but
soe great future markets OF New York,
.Ftpooi and New Orleans cotton would
AZ AZ probably selling / cent or more lower to-
H. l IMAM 1t actually is. Intelligent people
r 90 ene trade recognize this for fact, and ]
yo.li0,t extend on it in this article. In fact.
S-" uuing cotton might have been any W here
70 I'm TO cents in Savannah to-day but
s, Us ue support afforded by the speculative
system Of futures.
Wv WY, then. do not prices advanced In
r oe judgment Of the writer tic answer Is
Gu 90 uarn 70 IND. Speculation has already
-0 'n-it carried up the market nearly