New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1891-10-19
SELECTIONS FROM THE MAIL
WHEAT.
ENORMOUS EXPORTS AND SUPPLIES-THE
EUROPEAN PROSPECT.

TO the Editor Of The Tribune
Sir: The preliminary report of exports of wheat
and flour for the month. and the three months
ending with September, present strong contrast
with the returns for the same periods last year.
At that time speculation holding the price Of
wheat 80 high that exports from the Atlantic side
were substantially stopped. This year the ex-
ports, flour included, for the month of September
have been equivalent to 24,655,69 bushels Of
wheat against 5,251,15s for the same month last
year, and for the three months 63,144,232 bushels
of wheat against 22,o67.943 for the same months
last year. 1t appears that of the wheat exported
no less than 1e.44S.66l bushels was from At
lantc ports in September, against 506,259 bushels
for the same month last year. The average ex-
port price for the month of September was
81 90 LIZ against 81 OF in September, 1890, but
from the Pacific Coast the exports last year were
in average value only about 80 cents per bushel
against nearly 81 this year.
In previous statements it has been shown that
the surplus brought over from previous years July
l. In excess Of the minimum stock, cannot be reck-
oned at less than 1s,134,721 bushels. The official
report of the Department for October indicates
yield of 5s8, 100000 bushels, making the sup
ply for the current year no less than 100000, 900
bushels. Estimating the mean population for the
year from the census returns, and allowing con-
sumption Of wheat at the rate shown for the past
nine years. the quantity required for food and use
in the arts would be 3O2 ,025721 bushels. 1t will
be safer to allow something for probable increase
in the acreage of wheat for the coming year, in
view of the comparatively satisfactory prices now
ruling, and 57,5OO000 bushels would suffice for
an increase of per cent in the acreage sown, both
for winter and spring wheat On this basis the
quantity consumed would be 800, 100000 bushels,
and the quantity remaining for export during the
crop year would be less than GAG, 500, 600 BUSH
els. AS the exports for the first quarter of the
year from the principal ports only have been
equivalent to 63,144,232 bushels, it follows that
there should remain for export during the nine
months beginning with October more than 1885,
600, 900 bushels, whereas the exports during the
corresponding nine months of the last crop year
were but "a, 900 bushels.
DISPATCHES state that THE London Times" still
estimates the worlds deficiency of wheat at So
900, 900 bushels, after allowing for the United
States and Canada eXportable supplies of 225OOO,-
600 bushels But if the United States alone
has available for export 81, 100000 bushels more,
and official statements allow about $4,000, 600
bushels for Canada, the supposed worlds deficit
would well nigh disappear Calculations of this
sort do not seem to possess much value. 1t Is
quite well known that the actual consumption of
wheat does vary considerably in all European
| countries with the price. No practical business
man can be persuaded that it will not so vary,
though he may at times overlook the fact in con-
sidering published estimates presumably from
good authority But If the wheatconsuming
| population Of Great Britain and Western Europe
be reckoned at only $50, 100000 people, and the
decrease in consumption for year should prove
| TO be no more than half bushel for each in
| habitant, the quantity required to supply Euro
| pcan consumption would thus be reduced 10000,
600 bushels with every probability that the actual
decrease in consumption per capita Will be even
larger +,
some rcsDects more favorable, though there is
| obviously a great deficiency in France and Ger
MANY and little more than the usual deficiency
| in Great Britain. But it is believed that the
Continental countries have already purchased
nearly if not quite enough to meet their require
| ments until January /, and meanwhile attention
| begins TO be given to the fact that the weekly
| exports Of wheat from Russia continue but little
! smaller than they were n year ago for the same
weeks 1t is also noteworthy that these shipments
come from nearly all the principal exporting ports
of Russia and the fact certainly does not indicate
| so extended a scarcity as previous accounts had
led people to believe. In the light Of these facts
| IL seems decidedly uncertain whether the foreign
| demand for wheat from this country will suffice
| to take from shores 246, 900 bushels oil
| even 220,0000O0 bushels, since the greatest
quantity hitherto exported in year was about
1885, 000, 900 bushels. w. VI. G..
New-York, Oct Is, 1901