Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1891-05-12
The majority in the electoral college of 92s

The majority in the electoral college of 223
votes in 1892 may be in some measure deter
mined by some Of the state elections Of the
present year. glance at the field is chiefly
useful as showing the necessity for hard work
on both sides and the possibility that there
may be even three sides. The republicans
have derived consolation from the political
events that have occurred since 1880. II Is
probable that unless the Farmers Alliance
complicates matters in Ohio more than is now
anticipated that state will be found in the re-
publican fold as usual in the preside ntial
election The democrats have been giving
Massachusetts a good administration, but it is
likely that if the republicans do not reclaim the
state this they will next year. Ii would be
chaos, indeed, for the republican party if the
Bay State were to fail to support it in a presi-
DENTAL election. The other points Of interest
are Iowa and New York. IL the republicans
can carry their full state ticket in the former
in 1891 they can carry their presidential ticket
in 1892 The farmers are a lively force there
In politics, and much depends on the course Of
events. New York, q democratic state, Is always
. hard fought field, except when faction pre-
walls among the republicans as in the Folger-
Robertson contest Democratic faction is
nearly always TO be expected in the
municipal contest in New York city,
but trouble in the city is not always
operative for harm to that party in the
state at large. As affairs stand it would be
prudent TO class New York as a democratic
state, notwithstanding the rivalry between the
Cleveland and Hill wings and the Weed dis
affection. Nevertheless, whatever the result
OF the state election this year every inch of the
state of New York will be contested in 1899. To
the democrats the woodchuck is indispensable
for dinner. and the little animal lives in New
York. In the last two presidential elections.
with 201 as a majority of the electoral college.
the democrats had to look to New York So. the
solid south 153. with either Indiana l5 or New
Jersey 8, and Connecticut 6, for victory. Their
necessities are greater under the new appor-
tionment since with 223 as a majority of the
electoral college. they will be Obliged to get the
south, increased to 15s. New York Sc, Indiana
Is, New Jersey. increased to 10, Connecticut O.
DIS or more than necessary. They cannot,
as in 1884 and 1888. spare either Indiana OF the
two states OF New Jersey and Connecticut, but
must carry them all or replace such are lost
by others of eInal electoral value.
This calculation based on existing facts and
probabilities is liable to be upse, by two or
three contingencies Either. if the democrats
carry all the northern states named, they may
lose West Virginia or Delaware, or the repub-
hcans may lose some Of the western states
Rhode Island, or the Farmers Alliance may
carry certain states and the election be thrown
into the House Of Representatives In the
latter event the democrats having majority of
states in the next Congress would win. Tie
change of the manner of casting the electoral
vote in Michigan may also be an important
factor in the result The IA votes of Michigan
will certainly not all be thrown heretofore
for the republican candidates.