Telegram-herald., 1891-08-17
HENRY CleWS' LETTER.
Great Improvements In Wheat Prospects
Over Earlier Estimates.

Over EARLIER Estimates.
New York, Aug. Is, ls9i.-In my last
weeks survey of the influences affect
ing the stock market, l gave special
prominence to q set of factors which
might be construed favorable to the
selling of certain securities. At that
time, those factors were 50 exclusively
occupying lne attention of operators
that 1T appeared probable that they
might produce at least temporary de-
cline; and. with that view, | suggested
selling special stocks rather than buy
ing. AT the same time, however, the
market had another side and another
set OF influences, which though, for the
time being, dormant and inf1uen-
tlal, were yet plainly destined to have
favorable influence upon prices
sooner or later; and as the market of
the past two weeks seem to have been
IN some measure moved by those con-
slderations 1t may be proper to make
due reference to them. The wheat
crop now promises TO surpass both IN
quantity and quality the earlier esti-
mates, $50 To 6O0 million bushels being
now regarded as not an Impossible
yield. The special importance attach
ed TO this fact 10 that wheat being so
largely On export crop this unprece-
dented supply OF 1t gives Ms the greater
power for controlling the return OF the
abnormal exports of gold for the last
eight months If Europe should need
double the average supply OF American
wheat OF the last ten years. we shall be
IN position TO send 1t. This fact can
not reasonably be denied favorable
allowance in estimating the probablii-
ties of refiux of gold TO the United
States. 1t is quite possible that unfa-
vorsble features In the condition of
European finances and commerce have
been exaggerated IN the common esti-
mate. 1t always happens, after panic
that fear and apprehension unduly
sway the public mind and make the
after effects more serious than they
might Ur need be. But it is well to re-
member that two panics never como IN
immediate succession. Immediately
after the crash, recovery sets In, and
though 1t may proceed slowly and
amid tinlldity and caution on every
side, yet the process Is one of sure i'm
provement. Extraordinary as have
been some OF the aspects OF the late
European panic, yet the pract;ced n
nanciers of London, Paris and Berlin
know how to gauge the magnitude
and bearings of the crisis with infalll-
bic exsctness; aud 1t IS perhaps quite
safe to say that the idea prevailing on
this sce the Atlantic. that those men
are trembling with apprehension At the
probability OF further great CONNER
clal or financial disasters, Is broad
misconceptlon, ana one which does not
reflect favorably on the average infor-
nation of the Wall-st. observer. IL
seems proper to add y word as to the
prospects of our home money. We
nave nova week or two later than
usual-reached the turning point IN
the domestic exchanges, and money
has begun to- flow westward. Although
the amount of the reserves OF the New
York banks is double what il was at
the same time last year, yet that may
not prevent our local cash resources
beng drawn down to point threaten
ing stringency. That is a matter, how
ever. that can only be determined byex-
perience. 1t ls not to be overlooked in
this connection that the active circula-
ton OF the country has increased some
20 millions during the last IL months,
which, IN the absence of any increase
in the trade of the country, should pass
for an element of some Importance IN
estimating the prospects of the money
market. The "bearIsh" element does
not seem to have fully exhausted IT.
self; hence the point does not appear
to have yet been reached at which 1t Is
safe To load up heavily with stocks. eX-
oept for brief turns. aud the buying
should be confined to periods when
siumps are produced by the active
traders. HENRY CLEws.