The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1891-05-18
BANKER CLKws' VIEWS
OF the Financial Outlook. as Seen
From Wall Street.


From Wall Street
NEW YoRK, May 1.-THE marked in
trinsic buoyancy Of the stock market con-
tinues 70 be held in check by the large
special exports of specie; and hence it be
comes important to understand the causes
and the probable duration Of the gold out
flow aud the bearing IL should legitimately
have upon confidence and the course Of the
local money market.
Primarily, the exports seem TO have arisen
from the urgencies Of Russian finance. The
car has for some time sought to effect a
| large loan, first 70 provide for the payment
| OF maturing loans. next to construct extern
slve lines OF railroad, and also to enable him
TO construct immense military works in
menace of Germany and Austria The
Rothschilds lately undertook the negotia-
ton; but, partly on account of the czar's
hot persecution of the Jews. and partly, it
is supposed, because there was good reason
to suspect that the loan was also in
tended for contemplated early hos
tilities against the triple alliance,
the great banking house withdrew from the
transaction. This was hard blow at the
credit, the prestige and the political am
billions of the car; aud whether in revenge
or from financial necessity does not exactly
appesr-Russia has since been drawing
heavily upon the 800. O00, 900 to $125. 000, 900
| of deposits which, somewhat inexplicably,
she has been allowing to rest with the great
banks and bankers of Europe. The conse-
quent large and sudden drain upon the
European stocks of gold, coming close upon
the deep disturbance of confidence arising
from the financial complications in South
America, has caused continental banks TO
recoup themselves for the loss by getting
gold from every possible source;
and naturally the drain has
hoa lxr tad he cd
States. The panic in Lisbon, the uneasiness
at Madrid and the alarm in Paris during the
past week are Illustrations Of the way in
which these causes are acting upon Euro
pean banking interests. The trouble in those
cities, however, seems TO have been adjusted,
and that fact has partially res ored conf
dence. Nevertheless, the situation is still
shrouded in uncertainty. There is an alb
sence of information as to bow far Russia
may continne to draw upon her deposits IN
foreign banks; and, so long as that point
| remains uncertain, caution and the desire TO
get gold must continue to be the order of
the day at the European centers.
Whilst this uncsrtai aty prevails, we must
| stand exposed to continuance of the de-
mand on New York for gold; and Thurs
days significant advance Of the bank Of
England's rate of discount from TO per
cent. was no doubt made with that end In
view. It Is not easy TO determine what
| may be the present ability Of Europe to
draw upon this country. The recent large
exports of gold have been due not only to
| our heavy maturing obligations on account
| Of special importations made in anticipa-
| ton of the operation of the new tariff
| duties, but also to the remittance of foreign
banking balances resting here for employ
| ment. How far the latter resource against
| cash remittances may have been al
ready diminished, 1t is impossible to
he ho1 IL 49,
| (which is not SUPPOSEDLY, there would still
| remain ways in which Europe could get
gold from us through borrowing here, were
the pressure urgent enough to justify the
cost of such operations. At the moment,
however, the symptoms indicate that Rus
STA has probably satisfied at least her i'm
mediate requirements for gold, and the tone
at the foreign financial centers shows a
more settled feeling; so that the hope is
permissible that we may have now seen the
worst of the international financial crisis.
One one point we may quite safely be
confident-that. in spite of the shallow
prophecies about the loss of gold threatening
serious danger from the operation OF the
new silver act, neither the gold already ex-
ported nor any further early amounts that
may possibly follow can be fraught with
any more serious Inconvenience than a
temporary stringency In the local money
market. Whatever may come of our silver
currency, our stock of gold Is now so large
that at worst it would require years to bring
about the depreciation of the current value
of silver money now so hastily predicted;
and. in the meantime, we shall have plenty
| OF time to correct any errors Of legislation
that experience may prove we have made.
1t does not seem to be sufficiently appre-
ciated that, within recent years. a very
important change has occurred in the distTi-
| button of gold, so far as respects the United
| States. Between the years 1862 and 1877.
inclusive, We made net export Of $685.
| 100000 of gold; whilst during the period
| 1878 to 1890 we made a net import of $780,
000, 900, there having been only three years
within the last thirteen during which the
| export of that metal has exceeded
| the import. With such a large and
| progressive accumulation Of this metal it
| stance that we have exported someSS2 900, -
600 since the beginning Of April, aud
| especially when there is such clear pros
| poet that the next harvest will put US so
largely IN a creditor relation to Europe as
to bring back to US large portion Of the
| cash remittances we are now making.
During the week ending Saturday We
| shipped over $4,000 900 gold, making q
total of over s41, 900 600 since Jan. /.
| Nevertheless, while there Is no danger Of
| any permanent depletion Of our stock of
| gold, it is not impossible that further early
| shipments may so far deplete the reserves Of
| the banks as to impose more or less check
upon speculative transactions; aud, for that
| season, / suggest to our friends a conserva-
tive course in respect to all such operations
| and the postponement of buying until the
| European prospect is clearer. In the mean
| time, the harvest prospects and the current
good earnings of the railroads are improv-
ing the intrinsic value Of stocks, insuring
an active market when these financial
1 y l. l.