The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1891-07-19
A Significant Decline.

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A Significant Decline.
The returns OF the census Of England and
wales taken last April are now published.
They show that the population increased
from &C. OO0 900 in 1881 to 90 000 900 In 1891, or
! ut the rate Of only 11.54 per cent.
This is tho smallest ratio OF increase In
any decade eince the beginning Of the GEN.
'Sury, and it disappoints tho expectations OF
F., Ill the statisticlans who had been estimat-
, ing the growth during the ten years, and
Who had calculated population for 1891
larger by nearly $4,000 than the census
actually found 1t. Tho falling of in the
rate Of increase as compared with the last
decade. Is nearly three per cent, and 1t
sVitiates many official estimates which had
been trusted as approximately correct.
The explanation of the falling off Is
: marked decline In the rate Of natural in
crease during the last seven or eight years
more especially. This has been due In great
part to a notable reduction in the marriage
rate. q very significant decline. which may
+, we'll provoke grave misgivings as to the
future and as to the moral outlook for tho
community. Tho number OF the married. as
compared with 1000 living, was at the rate
Of 1854 in 1883. In 1889 1t had fallen to 14.7.
J Even the rate at the beginning OF tho decade
was low by the side Of the average for the
Ton years Immediately preceding. More
over. the tendency has been downward since
1878. when the rate was l7.6.
Meantime, OF course, the birth rate has
f., been growing less, decreasing from 36.3 In
1876 to 2s.7 in 1890. This Is very great.
almost a startling, decline, and during the
last few years it has been continuous.
Though the death rate was lower last year
! than in any year prior to 1881. the natural
increase Of the population by the excess Of
births over deaths was only sos, 267 IN 1890, as
, against an average increase Of SCOOPS In the
preceding five years.
Hence 1t would seem that not only is mar
aiage decreasing proportionately. but mar
riages also are becoming less prolific on
the average. Malthusian doctrines have
been preached by radical counsellors Of the
Door and by some Socialists, and they ap-
pear to have had q perceptible effect on q
country so distinguished in the past for Its
high birth rate. People are taught to look
on largo families as an evil, and the old
English saying that there Is loaf Of bread
ready for every new mouth is disputed as
contrary to experience Pessimism pro-
claims that to introduce children into the
world ia to condemn them to unavoidable
suffering. and selfish prudence is encouraged
10 avoid the burden Of many progeny.
The same tendency is observable in this
country, but here it seems to prevail rather
among the rich and the well-to-do, the edu-
Gated and the refined. than among the poor
and the uncultivated. English travellers have
long made tho smallness OF American fami-
lies q charge against our civilization, and
they have also assailed the morality OF
France for like reason; but this last GEN.
sus indicates that they have the same evil
to deal with at home. Marriage Is decreasing
In England, and the birth rate Is falling of
oven more. Once begun. too, this decline Is
likely to continue. and 1t may grow to be
very serious. as it Is In Franco. Already it
has overthrown the estimates and caloula-
lions of the statlsticians OF population. at .
time. too when the prosperity Of the king
dom has been fully up to the average, un-
less 1t DO as to the classes dependent on agri-
cultural production.
The indications Of our own census as to
this matter would be valuable for compare
son II tho whole PORTER census had not
been proved to be utterly untrustworthy.
Nothing In 1t can be taken as safe basis
for generalization. Therefore we are unable
to make any comparisons between this
country and England az to the natural in
crease Of population. Moreover, the statis-
tics Of births obtained In this city are
known to be incomplete and worthless for
scientific purposes, as the Health Depart
ment itself regretfully acknowledges. Per-
feet as its registry OF deaths is. accord
ing to the assent Of all homo and foreign
Gtatisticians Of mortality, Its returns Of
births are manifestly defective.
1t u not improbable. however. that here
also the birth rate Is falling of. the same
causes which affect 1t in England operating
n this country likewise.