The progressive farmer. [volume] (Winston, N.C.) 1886-1904, 1891-07-28
THE R DESTINY.
The Relative Decrease of Colored Popula,
ton Shown by the Eleventh Census
The. Negroes Future Home,
thu Southern Lowlands.
Il Southern Lowlands.

thu Southern LowlandS.
Va Hasty speculatiOns concerning the
future numerical strength of the negro
in this country, based on his proper
tiOnate high birth rate, and the mis-
leading reports of the ems of 1870,
have done more than anything else to
render the negro problem a question
for political manipulation. Only two
years ago the presiding officer of a
political convention stated that at no
distant future the cOlOred population
would reach fifty millions. State
mentS such as this are regarded with
different degrees Of satisfaction, and if
true the negro would himself soon
Overrun this continent.
The crudity of statements such as
this, which can be used 50 diSastrOusly
for political purposes, IS shown by
Gen. Francis A. Walker in the July
Forum, in an article sketChing the
future of the negro, based on the sta
tistics of the race back to 1908, when
the slave trade was abolished. At that
time, or from the census of 1910 the
negro numbered 900, 600, or 10 per
cent. of the entire population. In the
recent census he is but 11.9 for the
entire population has increased sixteen
fold, the negro has increased but ten
fold. Taking the statistics by ten and
twenty year periods since 1910, Gen.
Walker shows that the increase by per
cent. has declined steadily, and asserts
that in all probability this steady re
ductiOn in the Negroes relative impOr
lance in the population will never be
reversed.
In confirmation he examines in
detail the respective birth and death
rates in % Southern counties of equal
population, black and white, based on
the tenth census. and finds that per
1000 births of those born and dying.
the rate for whites was 1901 against
140.S blacks. The proportion of death
rates between blacks and whites in the
large cities is greater against the
blacks. In New Orleans the death rate
for whites was 1857. blacks, %. In
St. Louis, whites, 1919, blacks, 80. rs
These results show that the negro race
is maintainingit5 slight rate of increase
only by means of a very high birth
rate over a very high death rate.
Another fact worth noting is the
future geographical distribution of the
negro, now that he can move freely
from place to place. AS a slave, the
t~rOpically bred negro was forced tO
follow the interests of his Northern
bed master, often into regions where
he lived only at a sacrifice of vitality.
Comparing between 1S8O-90 the rates
of increase in Delaware, Maryland,
Virginia, Kentucky, Missouri, Tonnes
see and North Carolina, with the cot
ton growing States, it IS found to be -
per cent. in the latter against ) per
cent. in the former. The Inference is
that in those parts of the country
where the negro Is not an economic
necessity, the black population viii
become more and more reduced bV the
entrance of a vigorous white element.
Industrial considerations at the same
time will draw him to his more natural
habit at the Gulf States. where the
white man cannot take his place.
Whatever growth may be expected
from the cOlOred race. will take place
there, and it not probable that a race
sc limited in its range viii ever reach
to One-third even of fifty millions.
70 recapitutate, the negro IN 1890
was One-fifth the population; in 1910,
but one sixth; in 1860, ~One-seventh: in
1890, less than one eighth. Industrial
reasons and natural tendencies are
draining him off toward the low lands
Of the Gulf Of Mexico, and there his
greatest rate of increase will be felt,
which in the nature of things Will be
constantly decreasing in its relation to
the total population.
Facts such as these indicate that the
negro problem will become less and
less rather than more and more a
political problem, and that the soIu-
ton may reasonably be left to the
operation of physiological and economic
laws