New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1891-10-31
FASSETT SURE TO WIN.
so SAYS COLONEL. GEORGE BLISS.
tus CAREFUL ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCES OF
THE oPPOING CANDIDATE, GIVES TIE
REPUBLICAN TICKET \ MAJORITY


voters closed, of making careful, comparative
examination OF the registry and expressing an
opinion as to the probable division of the vote IN
this city The care and fairness with which
these examinations have been made, and their
approximation to the actual results, has Ied 10
more than usual weight being attached to ueh'
In an interview with reporter for The tribune
yesterday, MIR Bliss gave his conclusions for TINS
year, follows:
res, l have an opinion to the result OF the elec,
ton In pursuance Oi habit have hai Ior seNVi,a
years. i have mace some calculations OF Tue pioDaoe
result upon the basis Of the registration IN this Guy,
j have always found that there was great ueu VI
loose talk aUout The pObable vote and il division IN
this city, while II seems To me tn"t "nen UaI0 u
Registration closed 1t is possible, by eA4mllis INC
figures of this wear a. compared with those OF pre-
vious years, to ect basis for calculation ana hilh
may lay without vanity, that IL past years nave
not been far out of the way. 80, ~, 49,
As to tho pro6anIe aggregate vote in this CITY, there
are 201 ,9l7 voters registered. The aggregate, as
stat "a in the different papers and by the Sane diapers
on different days varies a little. OF course me az,
Gegnte cannot exceed the number resislereu ana
experience enables u to say with OleraOie accuracy
how much deduction there will be ron the registry.
In other words, many votes Wiz be cast less than
the names registered. III 1857, tie votes cast we've
about per cent less than the registry. In 1868 ,
Il We go back l7o7, my recollection is TINT the loss
the registry is about : or per cent. have
always felt that the vote Of 1889, coming. within
per Of the registry, could Lot lie accounted for on
any suppositon except that Of the fraudulent estf.
upon them by IcpeateS. though Of course in an cx-
citing election Ike that OF le-e the vote comes nearer
" the registry than on dull elections.
AN ESTIMATE OF THE VOTE.
The weather on election day has something TO DO
With it. This year il to that there are Ica-
Sons supposng the vote will fan below the registry
rather moro than the average. The detection Of
fraudulent registration in the With, WITH and other
districts with the knowledge that the votes will be
challenged and the parties arrested VIII Lead the IN
tended fraudulent VOSlS 10 stay away from the pols'
Moreover it is now judcally established tst persons
who after registration, into another election DIS
trict though they do not leave the Assembly District
4 prsctce has prevailed Of allowing persons who
changed their residences after registration 10 vote
provided they have not moved out OF ihelr assemoE
District Many such are doubtless TeestercI tins Ieer
but their votes VIII be clearly Illegal uey VIII
hardly seek to them For these reasons, II seems
TO that the loss in the vo' from registration VIII
be larger than the ordinary percentage OF an acuVe
election Ny impression is that II IS safe to say
that the loss from registration viii be eight per CENT
which would give US al aggregate vote OF ga "a.
You ask how this is to be divided between the Two
parties That is. Of course tle interesting question
vote which will 20 TO the Prohibition ticket and others
do understand that these outside olgsnizsu3ls
are tbs wear making any very great eAeruOll, but
since under the ballot law, they can have ther Dal
lots printed and distributed al tle PUBIC eNPense liz III
minority organizations naturally cast more votes tiah
party cast 5090 votes and The FrohbtlOnists 1856
iS4,o0o '''' y
24I 0G4 which have estimated. this scattering vote
would amount TO about 1900. Ny impression Is t4&t
there was zeal among the y0es T9o cast thii
tlEt many of them Will either stay away from the
polls Or Influenced by the position Of the Republican
party upon the ballot question, vote with il. II we
assume that there Will he 1000 scattering VOtes We
leaves US In round numbers 237 900 votes to be dvded
between Fassctt and Flower. - ~.
probable division with toerable accuracy. think i
can be 10y comparing the vote Of past years WIN
eompsTi@on the Vote Of 1890 because there was
single candidate running through the entire city, either
on the state Or local ticket who was anIPOto any ny
the Republicans alone 20 tiit we can leI Wi'n any
Nor can take for such comparison the Vole OF
1852 because In that year the Republicans substaaIy
shout g. 900 votes in the entire city. But in 19oo
we find that Cleveland received l6213S votes ana
s5 a5on Now in tying to get at tie probable diy
sion of the votes this year, we hnd the aggregate
pa coo odd hundred votes Win be divided between the
two parties in the pc cenage as the vote 81 the
two parties in ISIS If that is So it viii ln'ove
loss t. The Democrats Of iJS42 votes and loss 70 The
Republicans Of 0,O8s votes and thus give The Demo
fcrats 006 votes aud the Republicans ~ 300 Note
with majority Of jO971 for the Democrats, against
majority Of 55sI5 in lsss. The scattering votes are
omitted in this calculation You qndesta9d the ne. me
DRY OF this calculation The registration this year Is
certain number Of thousand votes less than the actual
vote Of ls5o OF eoarse the vote o. l9Di mus 10
eeens fair to tale a. basis for calculation the assump
between the two parties In the proportions "a
their actual vote divided in 1888.
THE DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY HERE.
Now if this j. 30. we say that assuming there
has been no change minds among the voters since
1855, the Democratic party cannot have In THIS city
q majority in excess of 5O.07l.
Let ITO say In passing that, If calculate on the
basis OF the I Miller in 1858, the result
will be more favorable to the Democrats, but cannot
think any lair man clam that the Governors vote
I'm 1858 an,d falr statement of the strength of the
two parties. Il IL Is Ehen, II would show, should
Gooo6 'A''o '''''''' ''
Sow, as to the variation which, starting from this
basis may D. made ia the result 1t seems 10 me IN
tho first pare that II IS perfectly clean that the Demo
cratic ticket, with s stigma Of IanInany Han cannon
get Il god many votes which Cleveland got III leso'
lake iny own district. the Kiln Assembly District:
III 1855 the Republican majority was only 20 II
there were no change of OPINION on the Icuuccu
Icgis ~ d his yoar the Repuh can majority would
be about 49, and yet do not believe thst ai{bo9S
Democrat or Republican, acquainted WIN tlt district
Will doubt that Ire Republican majority viii be many
hundred more The fact t. that IN lass many Re
voS6 ir cleveland becalsc lcy believed trar he bad
made a good Pre.iie9t better than MS party; They
were not Muswumps or anYth1E Oh tnet Nhd. II 10
were proper 1 cold name several very prominent
XXIst D.suict-alway, a Republican Dlstnct-Cleve-
land got majority OF 750 and he got il from Pre-
believes that THIS year TIE iammrny state uc1st
can get any msloIty whatever IN thut district. on
lean majority The vote Ter Governor II uhat dls
trict in 1-S- shows The correctness OF this statement
80 75 Mil Miller had MINORITY Of ADO
The same thing prevailed in the With District, and
bose of the island Many men voted for Cleveland in
lose who had always been Republicans, at any
tine shown any Mugwumpsh tendencies Each OF
them by transferring his vO;e from the Democratic to
The Repabcal ticket this year counts In the calcul
ton l am nOw mailing two
Then again there are the Mugwumps par exceilence
These men Of course all voted fOr Cleveland. This
year under the guidance Of George William Curtis
and Others whom they regard their leaders, they
are all for the Republican candidates against the
Democratic Many of them have made il known
publicly by their lips other, by their labOe, ard
mar add, By their contributions
COUNTING on THE COUNTIES
Then there are the County Democrats, dissatisfied
with their treatment in the Democratic Convention at
Saratoga. Their county committee has, after faslon
Endorsed the Democratic ticket but we all know that
many Of them do propose 10 vote for itsome Of
.taaiGht Resuhlican slain