The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1891-07-13
BANKER OLEWs' VIEWS.
The Financial Outlook and the Crop
Prospects,.


New YORK, Jnly 1l.-AfTairs at the
stock exchange are still dull. investment
transactions being limited, ard speculative Q
operations confined to maueuvers for the ad-
vantage of transient slight fluctuations in
prices. The hesitancy is not due to any
thing unsatisfactory in the conditions intrin-
slcally affecting the current value Of secu-
rites; on ths contrary, those conditions
seem 10 De regarded as warranting better
range OF prices than now exists, providing
an other influences were equally satisfac-
tory.
The real cause Of the postponement of
operations lies In a beclouded condition of
the foreign situation and in the uncertainty
as TO what may be its outcome within the
remaining half OF the year. The position of
affairs at the European finaucal ceuters.
though at the moment more settled than it
has been, is still far from being a hopeful
one, 1t might be reasonably expected that
the arrangements growing out OF the dis
asters OF last fall had now been so far ad-
Justed as 10 involve no further danger,
were 1t not that new difficulties have to be
faced between now and December The
Argentine danger has been reopened by the
congress of that republic suspendiu; for
three months the laws relating to the col
lectlon OF debts; which, though it may not
vltally affect the Argentine banks, is calcu-
lated to put severe strain upon CONNER
clal and financial houses which have already
been seriously weakened, and whose credit
is suffering from their large guarantees to
Argentine undertakings
lt turns out also that the balance of Rus
sias claims upon foreign banks and bankers
Is much larger than has been supposed
During June about Sl2, ZOO, 900 of gold was
sent TO -, Petersburg; and it is understood
that SO ,OO0,O0 more will have to be with
drawn from the Bank Of England for Russia
III July and August. Beyond this drain
gold IS expected to be drawn from
London In considerable amounts to Ger
many and Holland; and the "stay law
adopted by the Argentine congress is likely
TO cause an early outflow of gold to that
country. The $40, 900, 900 of gold which is
now doing such important service In
buttresslng confidence in London and in
directly also at the continental centers is
therefore destined 70 drafts which will at a
later stage withdraw that much needed sup
port and place the gold beyond the reach
OF the wants that will press heavily upon
the heels of deficient harvests.
ms very important crop question is now
assuming measurable dimensiu rs. An emi-
nent English authority on grain statistics,
while anticipating an almost average Brit
lsh crop OF wheat estimates the deficiency
IN France at l30,000,0OO bushels, and some
French calculators place the deficit as high
as l75,O0O,0O0. The total European
deficiency TO be supplied from external
sources, the English estimator places at
3SO,0OO,O0O bushels of wheat; or if we were
| to accept the figures Of the French stats
| tician for France, the total European deficit
would be about 430, ,0O0, 900 bushels. Seem.
| ingly, therefore, it may he assumed that Eu.
rope VIII have to import about 100000
! bushels Of wheat. Such demand implies a
| higher price for that cereal than has pre.
vailed during late years; and were the price
estimated at the confessedly low figure of
81 per bushel, it would TO low that Europe
will have to pay $400 900, 600 to other parts
OF the world for this cereal; which is an
amount almost without precedent. Our
own crop is variously estimated between
500, 100000 aud $50, 900, 600 bushels: and as
prospects now stand, $50 0000.o00 is perhaps
far estimate. Estimating our domestic
requirements for various purposes at
6O,OOO, 600 bushels, we should have, at this
rate, surplus of 1870, OOO, 900 bushels for ex-
port, assuming the home stock to remain at
its present quantity. whatever that may be.
According to these estimates, we are in q
position to furnish to Europe close upon
or possibly fully-one-half of its total re-
quired imports of wheat. This means that
TINS one item Of our exports will amount
10 something near S2OO, ,OOO,OUO. To the
United States this is very exhiliarating
prospect; but to Europe it is a very gloomy
one. Even were the European nations in a
prosperous condition, such an extraordinary
necessity to buy bread from foreign coun-
tries would be appalling; but, coming after
an enfeebling financial crisis, on the heels of
large drain Of gold into Russia, and at a
uime when industry is contracting and for
elgn trade is languishing, what may be the
possible result Of these short harvests to
Europel 1t is useless to predict; and
it is imperative to wait for con-
sequences The present attitude Of
expectancy assumed by Wall street is the
only safe aud wise one under such circum-
stances. 1t is not likely that we shall be
permitted to reap this advantage of great
crop without some sort Of drawback, and it
is wise to wait and see in what form that
drawback is likely TO come Europe will
find It impossible to pay us for our wheat
without making some sacrifice. She will
offer her products to us at low prices, or
cOnsign them for sale at what they will
bring if we accept them freely, our wheat
will be 50 far paid for in goods instead of
gold if we buy only our usual quantity OF
imports. then Europe will be compelled to
pay us largely in our securities held there;
and, in that case. the settlement will not be
conducive to buoyancy in the New York
stock market. For these reasons, We advise
moderate expectations, at least until the