The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1891-07-06


In an interesting and carefully considered
article in the Forum for July Gen. Francis
A. Walker reaches the conclusion that the
numerical strength Of the negro IN TINS
country will never Be sufficiently great to
cause uneasIness except perhaps IN the 'fuu
states The predictions Of writers WHO
have not taken the trouble to inform them
selves respecting to the increase Of the negro
race that in the very near future there
would be 81. 900, 900 of blacks intnis country
he regards as the purest nonsense.
Gen. Walker compares the NUMBER OF
blacks in the country, according TO the Iast
census, with the number shown hy the census
Of 1850. be also gives the number IN
tie country at the taking II each census
since the enumeration Of the population OF
the country began. and tue conclusion at
which he arrives Is that the blacks are not
/ Increasing relatively as fast as the whites.
Tl1elG the blacks were ~ per cent. Of the
entire population. Ia 1879 they we're only
l1.9 per cent. of the population. In the
eighty wears between the t"o periods the
whites increased sixteen fold and the blacks
only ten fold To state the case q little
differently. the blacks in 1890 were oae-t1fth
Of the population, in $40 one--izth, In
1880 less than one-eighth.
1t Is true the blacks have higher birth
rate. cut their death rate is also very much
higher. In confirmation Of this Gen.
Walker examines in detail the respective
birth and death rAUes in twenty-three
southern counties Of equal population,
black aud white, based on the tenth census,
and finds that uer 1000 births of those
born and dying, the rate for whites was
100. against l40.s blacks.
The proportion of death rates between
blacks aud whites in the large cities was
greater against the blacks. 10 New Or
leans the death rate for whites was z5.j1,
blacks 90. In st. Louis, whites 1919,
blacks 80. IS; Louisville, whites O.04, blacks
34.76; Charleston, whites %. Is, blacks IS.
Ia concluding his article Gen. Walker
says: sit will be seen from the foregoing
data that the colored population OF the
United States is at the present time main
tanning its relatively slight rate Of increase
only by means of very high birth rate,
Just little in excess of q very high death
rate. This is very critical situation, since
anything which may occur to reduce the
birth rate will have no tendency whatever
to reduce the death rate. Indeed. in the
case of an unframed and ill-developed race
any cause, whether the diminution of mar
riages or persistence III criminal practices
which diminishes the birth rate. is more than
likely to accelerate the death rate. Hence we
may say that, wherever the Industrial
ruiSOn d'etre of the oolored man, distin-
guished as an economic agent from the
white, shall diminish in any part Of the
country, this is not unlikely TO be followed
by decline in this element more rapid
than would occur in the case of another ele-
menU of the population Which had been
running along on q lower birth rate, but
with also lower death rate"
But it is evident that the blacks are going
to continue to increase greatly in numbers
in the Gulf states for years to come. The
increase will not be wholly natural. 1t will
be due largely to immigration.