New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1891-10-20
THE DEMAND FOR WHEAT

THE UEMdNO ron UhDh1'
The crop of wheat, if not greater than the
agricultural report for October 1 indicates, IS
58s80O, 900 bushels, which is 100000
bushels in excess OF the largest previous crop
But some authorities are convinced that the
Weld is even larger and point out Official re-
norts of various States which make the yleld IN
them greater than the Department has esa-
mated. An excess of 100000 bushels Is
thus found in only few of the States, so that
"Tbe Financial Chronicle'' believes the crop is
really more than 60O,0OO,OOO bushels. De-
ducting $50, 100000 bushels for food and seed
during the year, there would still remain
24O, 900, 900 bushels for export without using
anv part of the surplus brought over from previ-
Gus years 1t thus becomes question OF inter-
est and importance to all what prospect there
is of correspondingly large demand from Eu-
rope and other countries.
In the year 1sSO-'s1 Europe was short OF
grain. and had been for several preceding years,
and this country exported in wheat and Hour
the equivalent of S6,273,994 bushels wheat.
The price during the last five months OF the
crop year averaged 81 90 at New York, and in
Nav 81 90, and the British average for the
whole year was As shillings 4 pence much
higher than prices now ruling. Hence although
il is undoubtedly true that the consumption
abroad is liable TO be affected by the price if
wheat becomes unusually dear, it may be argued
that such prices as have yet been current this
year will not probably reduce the demand. If
Europe purchased 1856, 100000 bushels ten
years ago. when the average export price Of
wheat from this country was 81 II for the en-
tire year, it will be reasoned that even larger
quantity may be- taken this year, the price for
the last month averaging only 81 o..
But prices are high or low only by comparison
with what is customary. Europe has been ac-
customed for nearly ten years to lower range
of prices, in consequence of cheaper transporta-
ton by ocean and also by rail in India and
Russia. Wages and the cost of living have been
adjusted to the new conditions which seemed
likely to be permanent. Thus it is quite pos
sible that Che actual purchasing power Of the
people may not be as great now for wheat at
81 04 as it was ten years ago for wheat at
81 IL per bushel, and it is still more likely that
the feeling of ability to purchase may not be
as great. The ability to purchase also depends
in large measure upon the condition Of the vari-
Gus industries and the employment of the work.
ing people, as well as upon the cost of wheat.
This year the depression of many industries is
seriously felt in Great Britain, Germany, and
other countries and the number of persons I'M
employed, or employed only part time is prob
ably much greater than usual.
1t is under such circumstances a decidedly
venturesome thing to assume, as some foreign
writer's appear to assume, that the population Of
Al no
had, as the average quantity consumed per
capita in former years. To this usual consump-
ton various authorities are adding large guam
tity on account of the scarcity of rye in Europe.
"The London Miller thinks some increased use
will be made of oatmeal and of barley, and
shows that France has good supply of rye,
AuStro- Hungary crop Of 100000 quarters,
and that Germany received l, 900, 900 quarters
from Russia before exports were prohibited, so
that its deficit will be 100000 quarters
Meanwhile Russia is exporting great quantities
of wheat, this year already $4,000, 600 BUSH
els, against $1,000 900 last year, and since
August l only 365, 600 bushels less than last
year. The fact tends to cast doubt upon ac
counts Of scarcity. India has exported since
the 1st of April 5000, 900 bushels this year,
against II, 900, 900 bushels for the same period
of the previous year. Thus the possible sup
plies do not seem so precisely calculable as some
imagined while ago, while it is plain that the
consumption of 2OO,OOOOOO people in Europe
may vary considerably from the usual average
As the future cannot be predicted with we'll
grounded confidence, it would be safe not to
encourage speculative operations so far that ex-
ports are in fact cmtailed thereby.