New-York tribune., 1891-05-15
WHEAT.
EXPORTS IN APRIL AND FOR TEN MONTHS
THE PROBABLE SURPLUS

TO the Editor Of The Tribune
Sir: The quantity of wheat and -four exported
in April from all the principal ports was equivalent
TO 1O600,795 bushels wheat against 9.742,4
bushels for the same month last year. showing o
small increase Considering the reports which
have been current regarding the greatly enlarged
demand from abroad this increase must be re-
garded as small indeed, and by no means entirely
confrmatory of the accounts so widely circulated.
But even this small increase appears to have been
wholly in shipments from the Pacific ports, which
were greater by 1,4i5,526 bushels wheat than
those of the same month last year, so that the
exports from all Atlantic ports were considerably
smaller than those of April, 1890. The shipments
from New-York fell off more than one-balf, and
from Boston and Philadelphia in even greater
ratio, but from Baltimore and New-Orleans the
shipments were more nearly maintained.
The total exports for ten months. including net
exports from oil points for nine months and the
preliminary returns for April, were equivalent to
S5,279,957 bushels wheat, -four included, against
93, ,526,s1s bushels for the same months Of the
previous year. II the population be reckoned ac-
cording to the census, and the consumption
Of wheat at 2-3 bushels for each inhabitant ac-
cording to the estimates Of the Agricultural De.
partment the supply required for consumption as
remaining from previous crops and the crop Of
1890 by 124,217,SO7 bushels that quantity being
therefore available for export without reducing
the stock on hand below the point of greatest
known exhaustion, which was reached July l.,
1882. But If this reckoning is correct,
and the quantity hitherto sent abroad be
deducted, the quantity remaining for ex-
port May l was about 3S,937.840 bushels,
while in May and June Of last year the actual
exports Of wheat and flour were equivalent to only
l5,921,8 ,812 bushels. AS there is no prospect that
the exports during this and the next month will
greatly exceed those of last year for the same
months it is tolerably certain that the country
will carry over July !, Of old wheat In excess OF
the minimum stock at least about 2O,OOO,OOo
bushels This will be found in part in an in-
creased visible supply, which is now maintained
to the discontinue of SPECTATORS but in 1882 was
reduced to about 1O, O,0O0,0 900 bushels July l, and
in part in larger stocks of -four, which are now
carried over from year to year by the goat milling
companies, and by thousands Of dealers all over
the country. 1t may, therefore, be Impossible 10
determine exactly the held at that date over
the minimum stock of 1882, but 1t seems safe 10
anticipate that there will be an excess suiclently
large to be seen even by the blindest observers
The prospect for next falls yield is at present
remarkably good, though there are some reports
of drouth at the Northwest which look dlsquiet
ing 1t is not wise to forget that the destructive
drouths of some former years have not begun
until about this time, and it is still possible that
the yield this year may be cut down materlally.
In view of the comparatively small surplus 70 De
carried over, and the reported shortness OF the
coming yield in France and some other countries,
the speculator who chooses to hold wheat for tne
chapter of accidents has more chance tnah usual
ot this season. But it almost always proves dis
astrous venture to carry high-priced wheat into a
new crop year with the prospect that Tue acreage
will be large and the yield full W. M W.
New-York, May IA, 1891.