The Helena independent. [volume] (Helena, Mont.) 1875-1943, 1891-09-16
THE TEST OF The MARKET.
The.Baars and Bulls Have Each Been
Selling, but Without Seri-
GUS Result.
Permanent Holders Of Good Socu-
rities Are Locking Them In
Their Strong BoxeA
The Outlook net Only In the Share Market
but In Every Industry 10 tbs
Most Promising.

New YORK, Sept. 15.-Henry Clews d Co.,
in their weekly resume Of the markets, have
this to say: For tho last TOW days the
stock market has been subjected to the
effective test Of realizing profits. The soil
ers have included many large and inluen-
tial holders, and the "bcars'' also have
made ''short'' sales. These combined tran
s~nctions have been large enough to try the
confidence of the market pretty sharply;
but their effect has appeared rather in
checking the upward tendency than in pro-
ducing any material decline in prices. In
other words, the result has shown that the
disposition to buy about equals the DISPOSE
tion to sell.
The condition Of the market must be con-
coded to be a strong and healthy one. b
speculative movement ID backed by are
vival Of the long dormant investment de-
mand for bonds and the better class Of
shares, and a considerable amount of So
c~urities are going out of the floating sup
ply into the strong boxes of permanent
holders. London, Boston, Chicago, Phila-
delphia and the minor cities participate in
the renewed activity, n appear
nnces indicate hat the "boom''
has substantial elements of pormanence.
1t remains to be seen what may DO the atti-
tude Of the important class of operators
who have been realizing. Some of them
conclude that they have been hasty in re-
nlizing and arc buying in again; but a
larger proportion are waiting, or perhaps
are using their influence to create q reac-
ton in order to get in at lower prices. IL
geems reasonable to infer that, unless some
nuforouoou inHakinO falanont QnneQra tho
present hating attitude of the market may
be continued somewhat longer without any
extreme changes in prices.
1t can hardly be questioned that the
status of tho chief conditions that regu-
late values has improved quite as much ne
prices have advanced. In every condition
there has been a gain beyond what was OK
pected six weeks or two months ago. The
apprehensiona then felt about the supposed
weakness of finances in Europe have been
and even by the beginning Of a reevival! of
speculation, especially in American
pec.ed that any attempt. win be
made by the British and continental banks
to interfere with the natural course of ex-
change resulting from unusual imports of
American grain, which removes the dis
trust at ono time felt as to the return of
gold and the consequent course of our fall
money market. The outflow of currency to
the interior turns out to be lighter than
usual, and although the loan market may
work into q moro active condition later,
there is no certain prospect of special
%etringency and no difficulty in procuring
time loans for stock exchange purposes.
The crop situation has almost passed the
stage of possible adverse contingencies.
The corn crop. according to the government
report of September l, shows nm improve
ment over the condition in August and may
be already considered as virtually beyond
reach of frost, and the late storms have
caused but little dd%iscounting Of the earlier
spring wheat in the far west prove to
have been exaggerated, and we may safely
count upon q total yield of b75,-
100000 bushels Of that grain,
in excellent condition and OF better than
average quality. The reports of damage
doubtedly been grossly magnifed; for that
kin Of injury ia now 80 largely under i'm
mediate control by the planter that it is no
longer the source of danger it once was.
Besides, even surprising that a loss of a
quarter million of bales were to arise from
this cause, it is moro likely, in view of the
present large stocks. that it would increase
the total value of the crop than that it
would diminish it.
The general conditions Of trade are en-
c%ouraginR. There are nowhere any specific
complaints, nor is there anywhere a boom.
but the feeling on all hands is hopeful for
n good and prosperous seasons business.
In the iron trade, the irmer tone of prices
indicates the beginning of q better demand.
Tho increase in the current consumption
Of coal is a clear evidence Of a growing ac-
tivity in our industries. The earnings of
the railroads show a gaining rate of increase
over those of last year, which ia also evil
dence of a steady expansion of the COM
mercial movement.
The u%neasiness felt in some quarters in
-u4r~NnA - %hA nvH =, 4 ,,,a- Az -
for the redemption of the four and one
half per cents is found to have been I'M
grounded. Already about Sill, OOO, 600 of
the obligations have been redeemed in cash,
and the facility with which those liquida-
tions has been met removes any doubt
about %the,abiEty of the treasury to deal
with the outstanding remainder of about
$3.50 600, the more SO as the surplus of
gold beyond the requirements of the green
back reserve amounts to abont $50, GOO, 600.
The foregoing are the main conditions at
present surrounding the market. They GER
tainly are more favorable than has been ex-
pected. and they must be regarded as lay
ing the basis for a year of unusual. if not
unprecedented, tonnage on our railroads.
and for a prosperity which is likely to de-
velop into an era Of marked industrial and
commercial activity. Indeed. America ia
now beyond doubt under an impetus which
will soon force it to the front of nations,
where 1T will stand prr-eminent in the busi-
ness world. All these results cannot come
{ at once; but it ia the wont of Wall street to
anticipate coming good times; and the
question of the moment is-how far will
speculation discount these prospects in ad-
vance, and 10y far will it wait for them?
At present the prospects are plainly
toward higher rates for money, to continue
for the next few months; in fact excessively
easy money is now about over until the
middle of next April: the only contingency
to the contrary being the possibility Of a
large reflux of gold from Europe. 1t is
quito possible, therefore, that at later
stages the condition Of the money market
may force out 'long' stocks and cause at
least temporarily lower prices than those
now prevailing. =
At the moment. there are too many bulls
mi too few bears to make the market a
safe one to buy upon, except upon set
backs: and, owing to the lack of a large
short interest, good depressions may be ex-
peoted to occur. The granger and south
western stocks have largely helped to carry
the market where il now ia, and their i'm
~provement has about exhausted itself for
the present at least; for this reason among
others 1t seems safe to begin to
sell long stocks. The Union Pacific
directors have ratified that c%ompany's
decd al trust; but as the arrangement ia
nothing beyond a means for extending a
virtually bankrupt corporation, IL should
not have the effect Of enhancing the, value
of the stock. In view Of these conaidera-
tions, while regarding the situation M in
the long run a good one, ! deem it prudent
10 tIan sn 49, - ~