The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1891-05-12
TEE COMING COTTON DROP.
An Estimate That It Will Exceed Last
Years Crop By 10000 Bales

I
Years Crop By 10000 Bales.
Statistician Alfred B Shepperson Of the
New York cotton exchange, suthor Of
'Cottoa Facts" has made a new estimate
Of the cotton crop for 1590-9l, in which he
says that the cotton movement continues so
astonishingly large that it seems now quite
evident the crop Of 1S90-9l will exceed by
over 750, 900 bales the average Of the esti-
mates made last November by the cotton
merchants of New York. New Orle ans and
Memphis.
Mr.. Shepperson is considered en- author
ity on cotton statistics. In his last estimate,
which he made last week, he says:
/ cannot recall a crop concerning which
the well-informed public opinion Of the
cotton trade Of the country has been 50
much astray. The phenomenally large yield
was due to q combination OF favorable con-
ditions for growth and maturity which
may not exist again for many years.
During the eight months TO April 80 /
find that g. 10000 bales Of the crop have
come into sight, viz:
Bales
Port receipts and net overland rail-
road shipments to northern mills and
Canada. ........... .............,.... 7,5as.OoO
interior: ............................. 475,O0O
terror towns over Sept /, 1890. ....... 222, 600
Total brought into sight to April 30. $4,000
Last year from May to the end of the
season aug. 81 there came into sight
about 235. 600 bales. For the CORE
spending period this season the move
ment viii probably be twice as large.
except that the port receipts for
August may not exceed those of last
year, which were 81, 900 bales being
the largest since 1881. Upon this
basis, but assuming that the port re.
celpts for August will be the same as
last year, there viii probably come
into sight after May J................ 100000
Making an indicated crop of ...., 100000
Against last seasons crop of. ........ 1893, 900
This would be gain over the previous
crop Of 1,31S,0O0 bales, and while the in-
crease seems excessive 1t was exceeded BIZ
the crop Of 18S2-'S3, which was 1,494. 900
bales more than the preceding crop of
lSSl-'S2. The crop Of 1870-'71 exceeded the
previous crop by 1925, 900 bales. On the
other hand the crop Of 1871-'72 fell short of
the crop of 1S70-Tl by 1,373, 900 bales; the
crop of 1sS1-'S2 was l, $50. 900 bales less than
that of 1SS0-'s1, and the crop of 1SS3-'s4 fell
1.237, 900 bales short Of the large yield of
1SS2-'sS.
Reliable advices from the south ara TO
the effect that there 10 now much more cot
ton than year ago on the plantations and
IN the interior towns whose stocks are not
included in the published cotton statistics.
In view Of these advices, the quantity stated
as likely TO come into sight after May is
quite reasonable. The quantity now on
plantations and in unenumerated towns is
purely matter of conjecture. An impor.
tant factor in the problem of the future
movement OF the crop is the question: How
much will planters hold back until after
sept. l on account Of present low prices.
They may keep back enough to make the
crop not over $500, 600 bales, or they NAV
hold more than have assumed, and by
freely marketing it make the crop consid-
erahly exceed $500, 900 bales
Should the Indications which have pre-
sented be verified it is likely that the re-
celpts at the ports for the four months
MAY to Aug. 81 will be over 100000
bales. against III, 900 last year. Also, that
after allowing fully for the takings of Amer
lean spinners we can export May to Aug.
81 $4,000 bales and leave a stock at the
ports of 1000 at the end of the season,
against 20, 900 at the close Of last season,