Delaware gazette and state journal. (Wilmington, Del.) 1883-1902, 1891-05-07
TIE OUTLOOK EoR 1872.



How the Result Of the Presidential Elec-
tion May Hinge Upon the Vote of a
Single Congressional District in Michi-
gan.
New York Evening Post
The constitution provides that leach
state shall appoint, In such manner as
the legislature thereof may direct, a
number of electors, equal to the whole
number of senators and representatives
to which the state may be entitled in
the Congress- and law enacted in
1893 declares that "the number of cleo
tors shall be equal to the number of
senators and representatives to which
the several states are by law entitled at
the time when the President and Vice
president to be chosen come into office, 2
except when no new apportionment of
representatives has been made after a
census, in which case the old apportion-
ment shall remain in force. The last
Congress passed bill reapportioning
representatives and determining the
number to which the several states will
be entitled ON the 4th of March, 1893,
when the next President will come into
office; and the electoral college of 1892
will therefore be based upon this new
apportionment
In 1884 and 1888 the electoral college
consisted of 401 members-325 for the
representatives and rs for the senators
from the 38 states. Since the last Pres
idential election six new states have
been admitted into the Union, which
carries the number of electors at-large
up to 80, while the number of repre-
sentatiyes in Congress is increased by
the new apportionment to 1856. This
makes total of 444 electors, and re-
| quires 223 to constitute majority.
Under the old apportionment POI
made majority, and Cleveland in 1884
received 2t9--153 from the "solid south,
SO from New York, ID from Indiana,
from New Jersey and from Connec-
| ticut. 1t will be seen that the southern
states, New York and Indiana would
have sufficed without New Jersey and
Connecticut; or the South, New York,
New Jersey and Connecticut without
Indiana. In like manner Cleveland
might have let Harrison have Indiana
in 1888, and still have been elected by
204 votes if he had added New York to
his total from Connecticut, New Jersey
and the south.
Under the new apportionment the old
Democratic combination in the electoral
college, Of the south, Indiana, New
York and the two adjoining states, loses
much of its strength. The number Of
representatives has been increased ly
thirty-one, and the south gains only
five of the number, New Jersey one,
and New York, Indiana and Connecti-
cut none. In like manner the addition
of twelve electoral votes for the Sena-
tors from the six new states is entirely
at the expense of the south. The result
is that the sixteen former slave states
sink from holding 38 per cent of the
votes in the electoral college to only a
trifle over 80 per cent.
The states which elected Cleveland in
1884 will suffice to elect Democrat in
1892, but not one Of the number could
be spared next time. The "solid SOUTH
will have 1853 votes under the new APP
portionment, New York, Indiana and
Connecticut, 36, 15 and 6, respectively
as before, and New Jersey 10, instead of
Ga total of 225 with 1923 necessary to
make a majority. It will, therefore, no
longer be possible, as In 1884 and 1888,
for the Democrats to get along without
Indiana on the one hand, or without
Connecticut and New Jersey on the
other. The loss of even little Delaware,
with her three votes, would be fatal.
All this speculation, however, is based
upon the theory that there is no change
in the other northern states, which have
cast solid Republican vote in every
Presidential election since 1860, except
when Oregon went for Seymour in
1868, and California and Nevada for
Hancock in 1880. But the bill which
the Michigan legislature is passing in
sures change. Even if the Repub-
licans hold their ground in the other
northern states, it will be impossible for
them to get all the electoral votes from
Michigan under system by which the
district electors (12, instead of IL, under
the new apportionmenD are chosen by
popular vote in the districts.
In 1883 Harrison had about $4,000
more votes in Michigan than Cleveland,
but the Democrats secured two of the
representatives in Congress, and barely
lost two others. In 1885 the Republican
candidate for governor had about 1900
plurality, but the Democrats carried five
Of the II congressional districts. In
1884 Blaine had 3,30S more votes than
Cleveland, and the Democrats got seven
of the congressman. In 1882 the Demo-
Gratis elected six congressman, and in
1890 eight. Of the 10 districts into which
the state will be divided next year,
therefore, the Democrats cannot fail to
get at least two, and they may reason
ably hope to secure from four to eight,
while they also feel considerable conf
dence that they can choose one of the
two electors-at-large, who are to come
from the eastern and western halves of
the state.
The one thing certain about this
Michigan business Is that with the
passage of the pending bill the state can
no longer be set down as good for IA
Republican votes in the electoral col
lege. There will be at least two Demo-
cratic electors, and probably several
more. The importance of this is that it
may enable the Democrats to win the
election, on the basis Of the old COM
with the loss of small state,
like Connecticut or West Virginia,
which latter has long been growing
close, until in 1888 Cleveland received |
"solid south" New York, New jersey
anu lnuland Will HdFe Slo Notcsi WHICH |
four Democratic votes from Michigan
would make majority of the electoral
college without Connecticut; so also
would four Democratic votes from |
Michigan added to Connecticut, New |
Jersey, New York, Indiana and all the
states except West Virginia.
We have spoken only of contingent
cies in all of which the remaining
states vote the same way as
The chances of changes |