The Helena independent. [volume] (Helena, Mont.) 1875-1943, 1891-05-20
WEEKLY FINANCIAL REVIEW.
Causes and Probable Duration of the Gold
Outflow.
BANKING HOUSE OF
HENRY CLEws IL Co.,

hCShAAN AASSS1
HENRY CLEws IL Co.,
IL, 10, 10 Broad St., 35 Wall St.
Especial Correspondence of The INDEPENDENTLY
NEW YORK, May 16.-The marked intrin-
bic b~uoyancy of the stock market continues
to be held in check by the large special ex-
ports of specie; and hence it becomes I'M
portant to understand the causes and the
probable duration of the gold outflow and
tho bearing it should legitimately have
upon confidence and the course of the local
Primarily, the exports seem to have
arisen from the urgencies OF Russian nm
ance. The czar has for some time sought
to effect a large loan, first to provide for the
1truct extensive lines or railroad, and also
to enable him to construct immense mill
tars works in menace of Germany and Aus
tria. The Rothschilds lately undertook the
negotiation; but, partly on account OF the
ozar's hot persecution of the Jews and part
on to suspect that the loan was also intended
for contemplated early hostilities against
the triple alliance, the great banking house
withdrew from the transaction. This was
a hard blow at the credit. the prestige and
the political ambitions of the czar; and
whether in revenge or from financial neces-
sity does not exactly appear-Russla has
since been drawing heavily upon the $780,
100000 to $125.G00,00 of deposits which,
Somewhat inexplicably, she has been allowing
to rest with the great banks and bankers of
Europe. The consequent large and sudden
drain upon the European stocks of gold,
coming close upon the deep disturbance of
confidence arising from the financial COM
plications in South America, has caused
continental banks to recoup themselves for
the loss by getting gold from every possible
source; and naturally the drain has been
especially directed towards the United
States.
Whilst this uncertainty prevails, we must
stand exposed to a continuance of the de-
mand on New York for gold; and Thurs
days insignificant advance of the Bank of
England's rate of discount from four to
five per cent. was no doubt made with that
end in view. 1t is not easy to determine
what may be the present ability of Europe
to draw upon this country. The recent
large exports of gold have been due not
account of special importations made in
anticipation of the operation of the new
tariff duties, but also to the remittance of
foreign banking balances resting here for
employment. AT the moment, however,
the symptoms indicate that Russia has
probably satisfied at least her Immediate
requirements for gold, and the tone at the
foreign financial centers shows a more
settled feeling; SO that the hope is perInis-
sible that We may have now seen the worst
OF the international financial Crisis.
On one point we may quite safely be con-
fdent-that, in spite of the shallow prophe-
cies about the loss of gold threatening seri-
GUS danger from the operation of the new
Saver act, neither the gold already exported
nor any further early amounts that may
possibly follow, can be fraught with any
more serious Inconvenience than a tenn.
porary %stringency in the local money mar
ket. Whatever may come of our silver cur.
rency, our stock of gold is now so large thai
at worst it would requlre years to bring
about the depreciation of the current value
of silver money now so hastily predicted
and, in the meantime, We shall have plenty
of time to correct any errors of Legislation
that experience may prove we have made.
1t does not seem to be sufficiently appre-
ciated that, within recent years, a very I'M
portant change has occurred in the distEi
button of gold, SO far as respects the United
States. Between the years 1862 aud 1877
inclusive, We made q net export of 1855.
COX, GOO of gold; whilst during tho perioc
1873 to 1880, we made a net import of $50,
00.000, there having been only three year
within the last thirteen during which tn
export of that metal has exceeded the i'm
port. With such a large and progressiv,
accumu lation of this metal, 1t surely canno
BIO such an alarming circumstance that W
have ex ported some 1872, GOO, 600 since tn
beginning of April, and especially whel
there is such a clear prospect that the mex
harvest will put us so largely in a credito
ISOLATION to Europe az to bring back to US