, 1891-09-19

might occur which would bring down the
whole Croustadt house of cards with a run.
suppose, for example. that the French demu!l-
STATIONS were to take a tone of marked Insult
and hostility to Germany, and that Russit
should be coupled with France in these acts Of
unfrlendlness. Under these circum. tluccS
Germany would BE- sure to demand |explaua-
tions from Russia. But it is more than plo-
bable that any such incident would greatly
annoy the Gar and that he would tn IL and
there state the exact relation in which he stands
to the Republic, and 50 destroy the alliance
illusion. II, then, our suppoSition as to the
character of the alliance is true, it is easy to
see why the French newspapers grow SO ner-
vous at the first signs of popular excitement.
They feel that an attack on a German baker,
or the p~arading of a Russian flag in front Of
the {. rman Embassy by a derisiye mob, might
spoi H. In support of our reading Of the
tone of the French Press. we may cite an IN
tcrview granted to a reporter Of the Figaro
by a member of the Russian Embassy. The
diplomat we are told, gave the journalist to
understand that it would be a pity to diminish
the lustre of the Cronstadt reception "by an
excess of zeal, by Incorporate language, or by
a constant repetition of manifestations. "TWo
dangers should, he said, be avoided, first. n
too violent explosion of Chauvinism, which
would quickly lead France into warlike a1ven-
lures; secondly repeated and too noisy de-
monStrations. which might brighten the En-.
peror of Russia himself and cause him to re-
greet the reception given to the French in his
county" This is surely something very lj>e
letting the cat out of the bag. If there were
regular signed and sealed alliance, or even q
binding understanding, between France and
Russia, this is not the sort of language which
would be used. We do not hear it suggestel
that the Emperor of Austria will regret the
Triple Alliance if the people of Germany do
not do this or that.
But though the indications we have dwolt ON
moline us to the belief that the Gar has refused
to bind himself to what would have been an
Anti Triple Alliance, and that the European
situation is not altered, unless it be by an 40
cess of international cordiality on the part Of
Russia and her sometime enemy, we by no
means reject the notion that in the end some
thing serious may arise out of what is at pre-
sent only a sentimental drawing together of
the two Powers. Make believes sustained for
a sufficiently long time have habit Of turning
into realities. If then, France can only in
duce the Emperor of Russia to allow tho exist
ing state of things to continue, Russia
may after a few years drop almost unconscious
~ llAbp hi OlilCllCG WIN L AdlISC. a. NV \ LNA
can be induced not to define his position at
the outset, and the French and the SlaNOphil
russians continue to play at alliance with the
requisite intensity and caution, the result may
ultimately be as good from the point Of view
Of the Chauvinists as a formal agreement.
Whether the alliance in any shape or folm
is really good for France, is another matter.
In the first place, it is possible that Russia
my have only been making advances to France
in order to get better terms from Germany,
and that if the latter bids high enough in
concessions as to the Eastern Question,
France may be thrown over, and SO left in
u greater position of isolation than ever.
And even if the pre- sent sentimental
alliance grows into a practical one, it is very
douhtful whether FRANCE will gain. On thia
aspect of the question, it is worth while to note
the opinion of NJ. Barthelemy St. Hilairo
lately expressed to a correspondent of the
Manchester Examiner. "To me-" said the
venerable ex Minister of Foreign Affairs, 'all
this bodies no good; but l have long ~foreseen
it. 1t was The dream Of Boulanger, which is
being realised by the man who invented
Roulanger. have no i'll feeling towa,dS the
Emperor of Russia or the Russian people, but
we cannot shut our eyes to the facts-the Rus
SLAMS want Constantinople and Francs
wants her loss provinces ..Supposing
the object were attained, what would hap
pen? France would have sacrificed her indie
pendence for Russian dreams Of conquest.
And if as is tr more likely, the coalition fell