Fort Worth gazette. [volume] (Fort Worth, Tex.) 1891-1898, 1891-04-01
CROP CONDITIONS.
Two Seasons Compensation the Problem
of Price is to he Solved.

New ORLEANS, March 2S.-We have al
ready entered the second half Of the cotton
season of o9O-9i, and the comparison with
the last cotton year is very striking.
1t will be remembered that at the com
mencement Of the year 1890 prices began 4
sharp upward movement, which by this
time ! year ago had carried the price of
July delivery to ll.27, and on May IS the
record shows that July delivery sold at
1870, and December 1T 1871, the highest
prices reached during the season.
We naturally look for the cause of such a
decided improvement and find it in the fact
TINT the crop, which in the fall had been
estimated as ranging about seven and half
millions, later promised q yield OF less than
seven and 4 quarter, and the world was
face to face with the prospect of copsump-
tive demand in excess OF the supply.
= The influences operating upol. the market
Touring the season Of '90-9l, have been ex-
actly the reverse of those controlling its
course during the previous year. Esti-
mates have steadily risen from 1000, 600,
until now it is believed by great many
that the total yield Will reach $500, 900
bales. While consumption has unquestion-
ably made good advance, encouraged by
the low prices, and part of our increase
has been Offset b. 4 falling of in the supply
from other sources Of about two hundred
and fifty thousand bales, there will still re-
of cotton TO be carried over, variously es-
timated as between five hundred thousand
aud one million bales, largely composed of
the low grades and undesirable styles.
which have been so plentiful this year
Such is brief comparison Of the crop
conditions of the two seasons.
Convinced from the reports which we re-
ceiyed from our numerous correspondents,
that the yield promised TO exceed all eX-
pectationS, we have steadily cautioned our
friends against buying and have pointed
out, day by day, in our dispatches to the
Associated Press, the reasons for the
steady and pronounced decline which we
predicted.
In our MAJ ket reports, Us published daily
in 4 number of the leading journals of the
South, we have made our remarks upon the
situation as applied to actual cotton q Spe-
cial feature, and as crop estimates in
creased during the season we felt that an
inherent weakness in spots would develop
that would prevent any permanent advance
III futures.
The only reaction Of consequence that has
taken place throughout the past six
months occurred in January, impelIed by
l4he buying OF those who looked for q rope
: tition of the course pursued by the market
about same time the year before, regard
less Of the almost entire reversal OF the
conditions then existing. Such a senti-
the downward turn which prices then
took was not arrested until market con-
tracts bad declined &c. When June was
'aD11064 CT &c on for February 1, and there
seemed q general inclination TO consider
that price Us Offering an opportunity Tor
cheap purchase, we predicted without
equiyocation, that crop in excess of
100000 bales meant, in this market, SIC
for June and July. The record shows that
since then June has sold as low as SIG and
July at SOL. while spots languished, with
only nominal demand at SIS for middlmg.
Our belief in q monster crop has beende-
cided since the beginning Of the season.
though OF course We did not expect any
thing like SO large yield as now seems
likely, and we have taken actual cotton as o
basis for anticipating lower prices. So far
rs such belief would have any effect, we
have encouraged speculation on the bear
side since prices were cents higher, with
considerable profit to those OF our many
friends who have followed our advice
The question to determine now is,