Staunton spectator. [volume] (Staunton, Va.) 1849-1896, 1891-07-15
FINANCIAL AND COMMERCIAL.
THE GRAIN TRADE, CROPS, &C.
THE WORLDS WHEAT SITUATION.

AS rule, says the Cincinnati Price Current.
the tendency of observers is to overestimate
the extent of an apparent deviation from the
average or usual condition of a crop. This be-
comes a factor in calculations where there ia a
deficiency. as well as when there is an excess.
In European countries, France is by far the
most conspicuous In the production OF wheat,
and also takes first rank in the consumption
of this cereal, the United Kingdom being Sec
ond. The latter country, however, Is the more
important In its bearing upon the question OF
values, for Its requirements are 80 largely OBJ
tanned from other countries. Ordinarily the
annual imporlations of the United Kingdom
are equal to or exceed the total of all the other
European importations of whea'-
The average annual production aud consum-
ption of wheat of the different countries Of the
| world generally recognized In commercial sta
| tistics aggregate about 2l00,0O0,000 bushels. of
which Europe consumes about two thirds, and
produces about go per cent.
The wheat crop in France, chiefly autumn
sown as rule, was SO seriously impaired by
| the severity of winter conditions as to awaken
apprehensions early in the season as to the OK
| tent of the injury. Considerable of reparation
| to the crop was accomplished by spring SOW
| ings, but it is authoritatively stated that
very considerable area was abandoned to other
crops. These conditions, With more or less
impairment In the wheat crops in other Con-
| tinental countries. have been Influential in
speculative operations, and there Is ground for
the view that the extent of curtailment In the
seasons production has been somewhat exag-
gerated.
| regard to prospects of wheat production in
Europe this season leads to the conclusion that
approximately Ills. coo 900 bushels may be ex-
pected. as compared with 1,H5.0e0.000 bushels
last year, when the total was som ewhat In ex.
cess of the average of good and poor years-the
indications for this year being for "a quantity
about equal to the European production In
1888.
From q comparison of the productions of the
prominent countries for 1890 and 1891, the in
dications are that there will be reduction Of
100, GOO. 900 bushels of wheat this year In the
European production In comparison with last
year-and 330, 000, 0c0, or % per cent. below the
aggregate of the largest crops of each of these
countries during the past seven years, which
logically suggests that the present crop repre-
sents about 70 per cent OF full condition. con-
sidered in its entirety, for Europe, and about
Il per cent below the average Of good and bad
years. which is about l.25O OOo. 900 bushels.
Turning to other resources for wheat, the In
dications for India, Algeria. Egypt, Australasia,
and South America, point to an aggregate of
about $50, 900 COO bushels-a quantity slightly in
excess of estimates for 1890. and compared
with 36O 0e0. 600 as the annual average Of good
and bad crops during the past seven years.
In the United States. 52j. 900 is fair esti-
mate for present calculations, and for Canada
10000 600 representa- quite fully the probabilities
of the season-implying total of 565. 600 OCO for
North America.
The result seems to be that the worlds wheat
production In 1891 will be about per cent be-
low the ordinary annual consumption, II pre-
sent indications for European and American
crops are maintained, or about 65 00O, 900 BUSH
els.
Aside from thismoderate deficiency in wheat
is the fact that rye, which is OF great impor-
tance In Russia and very considerably SO In
other Continental countries, is understood to
be quite decidedly short of the usual produce
ton this season.
further feature, calculated to be strength
ening factor in calculations as to future prices,
is the recognized low condition of wheat re-
serves everywhsre-so that the new crop. not
only in this country but ELSEWHERE. will more
early than ordinarily begin to respond to the
demands for consumption.
The United States will by far be the most
important wheat.exporting country this year
and If speculative operations do not too seri-
ously interfere with free and steady move
ment OF the surplus as 1t is called for by the
importing countries 1t should be expected that
the average of prices Will be even better than
for the past year. which shows marked im>
provement over any;previous year for quite a
period-coverIng the years back to 1928.
The influence of price on consumption of
wheat can not be determined or reliably cal.
culated. In such countries as France. where
the production is great, and the entire crop and
more is used at home, 1t does not follow that
all the deficiency in the home supply as COM
pared with ordinary years will be made good
by importations. The consumers of wheat
more widely represent the producers in France
than In this and other countries-and where
these growers of wheat. on comparatively
small areas, are confronted with deficiency
In this cereal, they Will naturally adapt them
selves to the changed conditions and satisfy
themselves with such products as are obtained
from the lands under their culture. This also
applies to Germany. with per haps but little
less force. So that in taking a survey of the
general situation for the future. the influence
of such factors should not be overlooked.
On the basis OF a crop of 525. 900 600 bushels In
the United States. there will be an excess OF
about 165 600 900 bushels of wheat over the
home requirements for consumption and seed
ing, which will be approximately 100000, OOt
bushels for the coming year. The average an.
nual exports during the past ten years have
been 120. 600 bushels. For the two years
| next previous to this period tie exports were
| larger than since then or previously, having
been 10000 900 bushels in 1880. and 1876, OOO,.
| 600 In 1880 81.