New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1891-11-02
POLL OF OHIO SHOWS
McKINLEY's PLURALITY NAY REACH 10000
AN ANALYSIS OF THE REPUBLICAN, COUNTIES
WHERE Is Mr. CAMPBELL TO GET HIS voTEf

| WHERE Is MR.. CAMPBELL TO GET HIS VoTEf
| ypY TEIEGRAfH TO TIE IRiBuSE.I
Columbus. Ohio, Nov. 1.-The review in Thursdhy ;
dispatches OF the situation in the Democratic couhue>
| Of Ohio needs only TO be supplemented by Similar
glance at political conditions in the Republican ana
doubtful counties to dispose eeetualy OF the assump
ton so generally made by the spectators at Demo
cratic headquarters that Governor Campbell VIII re-
peat his exceptional Of two years and carry
tire State outside Of Cincinnati. Comparisons VIII be
made this year with the vote of 1890 for secretary OF
state and not with that CT 1889 for Governor and as
has been pointed cat, the figures Of last year are
the most favorable that could possibly be selected for
proving that Governor Campbell has fair chance Of
going down to Cincinnati with clear plurality In his
| favor. But by an analysis Of the vote cast last fall
| as compared with the normal strength Of the two
parties shown in recent elections it estimated that
In the thirty eight Democratic counties of the State
! Mr. Campbell would probably suffer net loss
next week Of from $500 to 5000. This loss,
added to last years net Republican majority OF
24OO in the State outside Of Hamilton County, would
carry the Democratic candidate into the Republican and
doubtful counties with handicap OF something over
1000 votes.
What are his chances of overcoming this handicap
In the Republican strongholds and in the exceedingly
close and uncertain sections OF the statcl
There are about forty two safely Republican counties
In Ohio apart from Hamilton. Like the thirty eight
Democratic ones they can be divided into four general
groups In the first are the Western Reserve counties.
in the northwestern, part of the State There are
twelve Western Reserve counties in all. but one, Erie
Is Democratic. The rest seadfsstly and over
whe mIngly Republican.
AshtabuIa in the far northeastern Of the State
has two-thirds Republican majority. Only vigorous
campaign can bring out the Republican vote. however
so insignificant the opposition Consequently In on
years" the majority declines perceptbly. Last fall
wa only about $780, against $500 In 1885 There
Is lively local fight this year on the county issue
and Republican gain OF at least 800 votes seems
Inevitable
In Lake County, the home of Garfield. there are
nearly three Republicans TO every Democrat The ma
iority last year on total poll OF $500 over 400
In 1883 on a poll of 2,4OO the Republican majority was
| 1900 In Geauga County much the same ratio OF
strength prevails. The Republican plurality In 1870
WINS 200. On big vote in 1855 1t was l,soo.
Trumbull County gave President Harrison BLU ma
orlty. In $780, as in all the other counties owing
to lack OF interest the majority fell to $500 For
Western Reserve county Portage shows rather meagre
Republican prepondersnce 1t gave Harrison 800 ma
jority and only 400 last year to the State ticket.
Mahoning County, unlike It's neighbors, is great
manufacturing centre, and its population Is increasing
rapidly. Its Republican majority, contrary to the
rule advanced from 800 In 1888, to 1900 in 1890.
This year. owing to local causes the Republican ticket
will probably lose strength, and the smaller
troubles have also broken out in Summit County, OF
which Akron IS the county seat. Last years majority
was about 500, against 1000 in 1883. THIS year
the Republicans count on not more than ooo or foo'
| In Medina County, which gave Ryan LOO plurality
| there may also be slight loss.
Cuyahoga County is safely Republican by 2,ooo'
II cave Ryan $3.50 and will give Mckinley perhaps
$500 Governor Campbell IS unpopular with his own
party in Cleveland and Major Mckinley Is especians
strong in that city.
IoraIn and Huron will show slight gains on last
wears vote giving together probably $500 majority
| for Major Mckinley.
Admitting that the Republican candidate VIII 1850
900 votes In Mahonng. Summit. Medina ana rortaeo
COMMITTEES in the last two through the Peoples party
movement he will still have gain in the rest OF the
Reserve OF not less than 5000 and on very full vote
his gain NAV rise easily to 1000 or 5000 HIS net
increase in the Reserve last years vote VIII conse
| ouent,y be not less than $500 or 5000
So much for Governor CampbelPs chances OF III
provement on the Western Reserve The second or
EASTERN group OF Republican counties seven In num-
her stretches along the Ohio down far as Marietta
In nearly all of them the Republican vote last year
fell more or less behind. while the full party strength
OF the opposition generally brought out. Coiuin
biana County the most northern showed Repuohcah
los, OF $50 from the vote Of 1888, loss which VIII
be repaired In part at least next Tuesday In Carroll
the Republicans made traIng gain. This is county
which shows few changes politically from year to year.
The majority in jefferson. In which stubenvhie Is
situated decreased 500 from 1888 leaving good chance
for Republican gain again this year. In the other four
counties-arrlson, Belmont, Guernsey and Nesle-the
majorties fell away but slightly and no marked gains
gains or losses are expected next week The state
ticket In the counties ought 70 run from ooo 10
ZOO ahead Of last years vote.
The southern group of counties includes Washing
ton Morgan Athens, Meigs, Gallia Lawrence, ocoto'
Jackson and Ross, most Of them along the ONO, and
two or three inland. Washington and Morgan are
both pretty close counties in which maiortes vary
slightly Athens County Is Republican stronghold.
II gave Harrison majority OF 800 in 1885, last fall
RYAN carried IL by l 800 the Republican voters not
coming out in strength In spite of the Peoples
PARTY movement there, which was active early In tile
campaign a good Republican gain is promised over
last year. Meigs County gave Ryan 1,3Oo majority
casting about It's normal ohyear" Republican vote.
In GallIa there was decrease from 1,4oO majority
in ,s.s 10 900 In 1890 Major Mckinley is expected
10 get over 200 There little difference in the
matorities given by Lawrence In 1850 and 1880 Tho
average plurality there Is about l,1oO scioto County
L Secretary Ryans home, and lie ran 800 votes
ahead of his ticket getting plurality OF HOO
Major Mckinley may get 300 or 1000 In jackson
and Ross counties little change is expected Ross
gave Ryan Lest year 100 majority. 1t Harrison
35O I'm 1855 and rs in of the closely contested
counties in the state political conditions there too
firmly fixed to admit of much variation in this years
warmly fought election.
Losses and gains will be pretty well balanced in
these Southern counties though there good TO
think that Major Mckinley Will Increase Mr.. Ryan's
net plurality by from SEQ to 900 votes.
A great belt Of Republican counties runs north and
south through Ohio little west of the centre Of the
state. Beginning the south with Warren and
Clinton it includes the counties Of Green and Fayete.
Clark and Madison, Miami. Champaign, Union Logan,
Delaware and Morrow. and ends. after break. with
Wood Lucas and Fulton Warren ond Clinton gave
Ryan last year maorlties Of LOO and 1850. as
against 900 1900 for Harrison IN 1855. Both
stalwart counties and will show gains for Major Nc
Kinley. Clarke County was Republican In 1890 by
900. There is no probability loss this year.
In Champaign, the home Of his opponent Mr.. Ryan ran
loo or marn ahead last fall and O small loss IS ex-