The Helena independent. [volume] (Helena, Mont.) 1875-1943, 1891-09-03
THE BOOM IS STILL ON.
The Financial Situation as Shown
by the Advioes of Henry
Clews & Co.
The Bears" Take n Rest and
Bonds as, Well as Stocks
Are Rising.
Tho Outlook In the Money Market ia En-
couraging-The Prospects for Large
aM Exports Good.

Henry Clews, in his circular devoted &c
the business situation, under date of August
%, has this to say:
Tho boom in the stock market has now
had four weeks of trial. The movement
has steadily gained in strength and breadth;
the bears have retired from opposision
to it and many of them have gone over to
the other side; it has commanded the CON
elence of London, which from being a free
seller has become an active buyer; it has
extended from thu share market to the long
dormant bond market; tho volume of bust
ness has risen to three-fold what it had
previously BEEN; the other speculative cities
have caught the infection from New York;
an outside interest has entered the mar
ket large enough to show that there is no
lack OF either means or disposition among
the public to speculate or to invest when
they are satisfied with the situation; and
prices have considerably advanced, while
the advance has not been checked by re-
alizings which have been made by large
holders, but still continues.
These facts are sufficient evidence that,
at least. the boom is backed by a large
measure of confidence; that it is more than
a squirt engineered by Il few large and needy
holders of stocks, as at first suspected; and
that there is a large body of influential
opinion in Wall street and out to the effect
that the present situation favors an era of
national prosperity and consequently better
prices for Investments. Judging from pres
emit symptoms, there is a reasonable pro-
liability of the boom being supported and
and of an active and rising market being
maintained through the fall season. Per-
haps the only danger lies in the usual ten
dency of speculative movements to rush
from one extreme to another and thereby
quickly exhaust themselves. The spectacle
of such an extraordinary harvest as the
present one is naturally calculated to arouse
a speculative enthusiasm which may carry
prices up at railroad pace to an elevation
far above what the occasion really warrants.
Such movements are neither healthy nor in
the long run, really profitable.
They end in explosion AN and en-
sanguins class to whom the overriding is
mainly due. The true course, under the
now existing conditions, is to follow tho
improvements in the situation as they
arise rather than to take them foc granted
in anticipation. Much of the financial
force behind the present speculation GEN.
tiers in the hands of some half-dozen men
of great wealth, whose policy it is to give
encouragement and ~''taffy'' to the mass of
smaller sanguine operators and then sell
out upon their dupes. A prudent operator
will regularly take his profits, and not use
them as new margin for increased pui-
chases, go as to find himself finally among
a mass of weak holders who are unable to
sustain the market against strong men who
want to break prices.
Z AT tho present moment there seems to be,
in certain potent quarters, a desire to force
- ,~A aN =. Ale ...1-u - AL-- - g 1
stocks. There are long headed and influ-
ential operators who perceive that prices
satisfy all that is certain and
realized in thu situation. They are
willing to pocket the advance that has
come in sympathy with the harvested win
ter wheat; but they think it prudent to let
the immature spring wheat, corn and cot
ton crops stand over for q future inspec-
ton. the drift of which can be much better
judged when che contingencies of frost
have passed. The san9uine holder of a few
hundred shares, who takes every good thing
hoped for as sure to happen, is the kind OF
aliment On which the more prudent and
bigger fish f~attons; and my word to these
averaged sized operators ia that they keep
a sharp look out for the safety of their
profits.
TIL monev market affords, on the whole,
an encouraging outlook. The reserves of
the banks have at last begun to decline
freely under the d. ain of money to the in
terror, and large as the surplus is, as COM
pared with one or two years ago, yet it is
necessary for the banks to depend upon be-
ing literally reinforced with cash from
some outside source. Some amount may
DO expected after Sept. l from the
redemption of United States four and u half
per cents-about $21, 600, 600 of which re-
main to be extended or redeemed; but what
sum will bs redeemed the event only can
show. The main dependence of the banks
must be upon the return of gold from
Europe, which seems inevitable, the only
open question being that of amount. Apart
from the effects of the prospective extraor-
binary exports Of wheat, it deserves notice
that the national exports are showing a
large ncreage-those for July being SIS, 2OO.~
600 above the same month of 1890-whilst
the July imports fall Sll. 100000 below those
OF last year. The securities movement with
London has, within the last few days
changed from one Of return to that of ex-
port; and the rates for sterling exchange
show a weakening tendency in sympathy.
1t may be Il few weeks before specie imports.
set in; but the prospective movement is near
to prevent, in conjunction with the
treasury payments for redeemed four and q
halls, any important stringencv in the local