New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1891-08-17
FUPOPES NEED OF WHEAT.

EUROPES NEED Of "HTh1.
The Russian prohibition of exports of rye Il
startling, because it shows that one OF the grea'
exporting countries has no grain OF any KIND &c
export in considerable quantity this year In
, time of great excitement and high hopes, there
is ALWAYS danger that due weight may not De
given 10 adverse facts. There is no room 1ol
doubt that Europe is going to require from tnis
country remarkably large supplies OF gram
The only question is whether the enormous
American supply will equal or exceed the
enormous foreign demand. This is partly
question of prices and partly of the result OF
harvests not yet completed. Some profess u
know within small quantity what every hu'
ropean county will produce. But estimates
by the most intelligent authorities diner so
widely as to show that these pretensions nave
small foundation. Thus Mr.. William r. Bear
estimates the deficiency in France at 1Oo,oOo'-
900 bushels, some French writers make IL lZo'-
600, 600 bushels, and writer III Inc New
York Sum puts it at 1915, 900, 600 bushels MI
Bear estimates the American wheat surplus al
IA. OOO,O 900 bushels, though there Is ample
reason for believing that it is much greater anu
nearly the whole crop of this country IS no"
out of harms way.
The official report Just issued by the Agri-
cultural Department points to yleio OF o44,
OOO, 900 bushels wheat, 2,O27 ,0OO,0oo puSheis
corn. $4,000 600 bushels oats and 2o'oOo'-
600 bushels rye. No one disputes that ZO'oVo'-
600 bushels surplus wheat was brought over
July 1, while the requirements Tor 1ood anu seeu
are hut 3b4. 600. 600 bushels leaving 210,OOO'-
200 bushels for export. Official estimates IN
Canada make the exportable surplus there
100000. 600 bushels Russia out OF the way
India is the next principal source OF supply
whence all authorities reckon that exports may
he larger than usual. They were 4l,5oo'ooo
busbels in 1887 at an average price OF IL GEMS
nor bushel. and it will not be surprising IL
larger quantity is brought out by high prices
The exportable surplus Of all the Danubian
region is variously estimated at 4o,Voo'ooo o
so. OOO, 900 bushels, and Vienna dispatches o.
Aupust Is say that the Balkan harvest
PROMISES to be excellent so that splendid re-
turns are expected by the grain exporters
Australia and South America are usually eX-
pected to supply about 100000 bushels aho
Egypt and Asia as much more. Thus estimates
of surplus available range from 32o,ooO,oOl
to 100000, 900 bushels.
Estimates of requirements are more uncertain
Mr. Rear should know the British situation ano
nuts the deficiency at 45,0OO,OOo DuHhciS
much lower than many others. Ills eStnla'
of France has been mentioned, anu f0r Germany
he reckons deficiency of 35'OOO,O0O buShelS
though "The New-York SUM- puts II al ILL.,
0OO 600 bushels because of the deficiency O.
rye For the rest of Europe the latter est
mates requirements of 165, 600, GUO bushels, bu
MIR. Bear only 81, 900, 900 bushels. Evidently
much turns upon the theory that great quantity
Of wheat will be consumed instead Oh rye D!
people who ordinarily Use rye bread only, De
cause it is cheaper. This is novel theory, ant
to some minds therefore attractive. 1t is mucf
as if one should reason that the negroes OF TIT
South would eat wheat bread ii corn shoul'
become scarcer and dearer than usual
| The Agricultural Department publishes, a
the result OF a SPECIAL investigation by It's Eu
ropean agent month ago. an estimate That thu
Weld of rye in Russia will fall short 100000,
600 and possibly $50, 600, 600 bushels, OF Ger
MANY AZ, 600, 900 bushels, and of other countne
n Europe 1900, 600 6usheis. Inc aggregate
Weld being ordinarily over 1,2OO,OOOOO'
bushels. the estimated loss woulu De from on
bur an FIVE TO a little more than one buShe
in Jour. Scarcity anu high prices would Ger
tainly cause much decrease in consumption, ant
perhaps as much as a fifth or even quarter
! without sucn suffering or starvation as to fore
treat numbers OF people to consume instead o
rye the more costly wheat 1t would seem NOR
nrobape that those in need would consun'
more American corn, Of which crop OF 2,O27,
900. 900 bushels would permit exports of 200,
OOO. 900 bushels or more, and which is cheape
than rye itself.
The deficiency of wheat alone seems iron
%. 900, 900 to 100000 bushels mole thai
the exportabe surplus of the countries men
toned. Hence there would naturally be al
ample demand Tor all the surplus of those coun
tres at ordinary prices, or even at a moderate
advance. But at any considerable advance II
price the consumption of European countries
rapidly diminished. A difference of half
bushel yearly in the consumption of 100000,
600 inhabitants, who ordinarily eat from six u
ten bushels per head, would NOT be a surprising
change, but 1t would suffice 70 substitute al
unsold surplus for an expected deficit. Th'
problem is therefore to get, for the enOrmou
surplus that Europe must have, the best pric
that Americans can obtain without lesseninl
the European consumption and leaving larg
surplus unsold
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