The true northerner., 1891-04-15
THE PRICE OF WHEAT.
NEW MARKETS MUST BE BUILT
UP.
DO Tariffs Hamper "a Country's Exports?-
Prices and the Farmers-ExchangeP Po-
liiical Comment-Tarin Pictures. Etc.

Prices and the Farmers-Exchange Po-
liiical Comment-Tarin Pictures. Etc.
IL has been claimed that American
wheat-growers were being driven out OF
foreign markets by the increasing sup
plies from other countries, and, there
lore, must build up new markets by
means of reciprocity treaties. Mr.. c.
W. Davis, in recent article i'm the
american Economist, SHOWS that this is
not true as TO Russia. 1t appears that
the worlds eXportable surplus of wheat
Is diminishing, and that the consumption
OF wheat all over the world is increasing
more rapidly than production. Some of
the factors which determine the price of
wheat are, therefore, now favorable to
the producer.
The wheat production Of the world, so
far as known, has not increased in re-
cent years. 1t is given in the reports
OF the Bureau of Statistics at 2,03l, 322,-
2S5 bushels in 1856, and at 2,04l ,075, 627
bushels in 1889.
The quantity exported Including four
from the principal wheat producing
countries was 239, 000, 900 bushels in 1850,
$4,000, 600 in 1885, and 270, ,00C, 900 in
1888. OF these exports Great Britain
received 6s. 000, 900 cwts. in 1880, 81, 000,
900 cwts. in 1855 and $4,000, 900 cwts in
1883. Great Britain is thus the chief
market for the surplus wheat of the
world, IL is worth noting that the inn
portation of wheat and wheat flour into
the United Kingdom has increased from
about 5000. 600 cwts in lS45, when the
protection for the British farmer was
abolished in the interest OF Manchester
cotton manufacturers, 20 81 coo. O00in 1855
or sixteen-fold in forty years The share
of the United States in these imports
into Great Britain has varied with great
irregularity. 1t was 80 per cent. in 1871,
81 per cent in 1877, 80 per cent. in 1889.
1t was % per cent. in 1874, SO per cent.
in 1873, and 80 per cent. in 1884. 1t was
over 60 per cent. in 1870, 1850, 1881 and
1857. The share Of other countries in
the supply OF Great Britain has also va
ried with great irrcgularity. Russia
furnished 30 per cent in 1871, less than
; per cent. in 1850, and 2s per cent. in
1889. The supply from India has in
creased with considerable regularity,
from less than l per cent in 1871 TO L.
per cent in 1850.
In the Irregularities Of American cX-
ports of wheat it is impossible to dis
cover any relation tc the volume of all
American imports. There is clearly no
ground for the free trade assertion that
uctS depends upon the American de-
mand for foreign products. Nor is there
anything in the fluctuations of the eX-
port prices of American wheat 20 indi-
cate that they dcrcnd upon the foreign
demand or upon the quantity exported.
Referring 10 the years above mentioned,
for which we give the proportion of
British wheat imports supplied from the
United States, the fluctuations Of prices
per bushel were as follows: 1871. 81. b;
1874, S1.4 1877, SILT; 1878, S1.34; 1879,
81 OF: 1850, 81. -; 1881, Sill; 1851, 81. OF:
1857, 50 cts: 1889, 80 cts.
The Irregularities of supply and de-
mand as well as of price, are beyond the
control of any human power. They are
determined by climatic conditions,
which affect production. Consumption
proceeds with uniformity, steadily in
creasing per capita with the improving
condition of civilized nations. But pro.
duction, or the supply contributed an
nuaily by the wheat exporting countries,
depends upon rainfall, sunshine, and
temperature which no human foresight
can predict and no human care or inge-
nuity control. Farmers who engage
largely in wheat raising are, therefore,
playing a game of hazard, in which just
now the chances generally scemN TO
be in their favor, growing out of a
steady increase of consumption with
no increase OF production. But a
happy combination of the elements which
determine production in either OF the
great exporting countries, or the great
importing country, Great Britain, may
at any time so increase production or
diminish the demand that the price
would fall even lower than ever before.
In this industry effort or skill counts but
little. 1t is a game of chance, in which
the farmer i playing against Nature.
If he stakes his years toll upon it, and
sometimes loses, as in 1SSS and 1850, il
may lie human but it is certainly unreas-
enable and unjust to cast the blame upon
legislation, which has had nothing 20 do
with il except to defend his home mar
ket. or upon his follow countrymcn in
other occupations, who furnish him with
the only constant and sure market that
he can possibly have.