The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1891-06-11
TIE AGRICULTURAL BUREAU
And It's Report on the Cotton Crop

The government report to-day on the
growing crops puts the condition of cotton
at S5.7, as against Ss.s last year. The acre
age is given as 977, compared with last
year, or slightly more than 2 per cent. less
New York kilograms say this report was
somewhat better than expected, and so the
market declined some ten points. Let us
look into the facts for a moment and see
what the whole business is worth.
As usual, you can make almost anothing.
out of it you want. II we compare with
last year. the report would seem to indi-
cate crop of little over 100000 If we
compare with year before last, IL would
mean little over 1000, 900 bales. II. how~
ever, we take for comparison the average
of the last fifteen years, we
will find that the present conditio n
indicates crop of scarcely $500, 900 bales,
and therefore the New York market, instead
OF declining ten points, should have adj
vanced about fifty points. Let us recollect
that the crop of 1890, 1900, 900, was the
largest up TO date, aud that the present con-
ditioD, according to the omniscient bureau,
is lower than it was then and that the acre
age is less. Moreover, we must remember
that the present crop is very much
later, in addition to the vari-
Gus other set-backs Taking these
circumstances into consideration, together
with out-turn OF previous years in connec-
ton with bureau figures of condition for the
said years, an estimate of $500, 900 for the
next crop should not appear extravagantly
low. The writer does not believe that the
| present condition, with more especial re-
| gard to the Atlantic section, promises as
much as 100000 bales
The most amazing feature in the whole
| business is the fact that these utterances of
! L A.
| trade. Let us look back only few months.
! In October, 1890, the bureau reported a
serious decline in cotton to so, causing an
advance of 40 points or more in New York.
| In November Of the same year. in its final
| estimate of the yield, the bureau said that
the yield would be about the same as the
previous year, with possibility OF slightly
exceeding" should future conditions be
! favorable and if correspondents were
conservative" Now, this was in the final
report in November, when about third
Of the crop had actually gone into record.
| The crop has proven to be about a million
| and half more than that of the previous
year, that is, the bureau actually under
estimated the crop in November by fully
| 20 per cent. Were this an isolated case it
might be invidious to make these remarks,
but it has happened again and again-it
| happens constantly. The trade has had
ample opportunity TO judge of the worth.
lessness OF the bureau predictions, and it is
| hard to imagine why they should have any
effect upon the market.
| OF the cotton crop every bale is counted,
which gives an infalltble check against the
bureaus mistakes. In the case of the coun-
try's grain crops, where only portion is
| marketed aud therefore counted in statis-
tics, there is no such check, and the bureaus
mistakes go on record as verified facts. The
| bureau called the wheat crop last year some-
what less than 400, 000, 900 bushels Now,
six months after this ultimatum of the crop
was issued, the trade has found out that the
country made considerably more wheat
than the bureau stated-perhaps as much as
| 10000, 900 bushels more. And yet there will
be no correction of this tremendous error,
simply because there is no method of abso-
Lutte demonstration. In fact, no one can
say how far the bureau was wrong
in Its estimate Of the wheat, corn, and oats
crops. 1t missed the cotton crop by 30 per
cent. IL is rather startling to think that but
for the admirable system Of statistics kept
| up in the cotton trade the present cotton
crop would have been Officially" given by
the department Of agriculture at Washing
ton as something like 2, 1851, 4S5 bales. For
| the most ridiculous feature is the alleged
exact statement Of the odd bushels of grain,
when the error is in millions!
| To take detail of to.day's bureau report,
| IL gives Lne georgia acreage as 30 per cent.
of last years. The state report showed
much heavier decrease. Are the govern
ment's correspondents more reliable than
the states, and if so, why's And why will
the trade continue to be influenced by re-
ports the utter futility of which has been
SO often and thoroughly prevent
Speaking for this section Of the cotton
belt, / can say that the trade is
practically unanimously of the opin-
ion, and for good reasons, that
the present growing crop of cot
ton is so far behind that OF last year that
| no Justice is done to the situation by the
bureau report as apparently understood in
New York. To be sure the bureau
would reply that it has nothing
to do with the Interpretation the trade
places upon its report; but In New York,
and probably in Liverpool, too, there are
about as many people who want cotton to
go up as there are who want it to go down,
and all the trade can do is to take the ap-
parent meaning of the figures and text.
Doubtless the bureau means to be honest,
but these authoritative misstabements are
absurd. DEMocRITUs,