The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1891-06-29
SPECTATORS HORROR.
TEE GOVERNMENT CROP REPORT
AND ITS MAKING.

TEE GOVERNMENT CROP REPORT
AND ITS MAKING.
The Periodical Lumor That The Re-
port Has Been acknowledgements
Which Surround It-How q Syndi-
cate Once Beat It's Competitors Ten
Minutes on the News-Ten Thousand
Correspondents.
From the Ne0 York Sun.
WASHINGTON, June 19.-At intervals of
year or two story is put In circulation
that some one has stolen the crop bulletin
of the agricultural department and has
sold 1t to Spectators in grain or cotton. The
crop bulletin frequently influences the spec
ulative market as it indicates marked or
unexpected change in the condition
or prospects of the growing crop.
Its value in the field OF speculation ia
not 30 great as it was a few years ago. be-
cause there are now state crop reports and
reports gathered by enterprisinR news
papers which generally anticipate any de-
cided change in crop conditions. Still, the
monthly report is closely watched by specu-
lators and the announcement of the new
average made on the floor Of the exchanges
frequently results in an imitation or depres-
sion of the market.
When any marked change is noted by the
crop bulletin, the Spectator who would
know it even half an hour in advance OF its
publication could make enormous profits by
buying or selling futures on the produce ex-
changes of the country. When was in the
west recently speculator approached me
and said:
| az ,,rdarstapd thara ara uavs IF 1attipo
at this crop report. 1t gets out every once
in while, and II you can get hold of It we
can make a lot of money together"
l assured him that IL could get hold Of
it in any fair way / would be willing to
join him in making "a lot Of money" by
the use Of the information. When | re-
turned to Washington ] called on the Stats
tician of the agricultural department. to
learn, not how to get advance information
of the bulletin, but how the department
succeeds In keeping the contents a secret up
to the moment when it ia given to
the press associations and telegraph COM
panies for distribution through the coun-
try; for. while the charge that the bulletin
has been anticipated has appeared at re-
peated intervals for the last twenty-five
years, no one has yet proved it, and the
statistician, Mr.. Dodge, is quite ready to
make affidavit that no leak has ever existed
in the agricultural department by
which the information could have
escaped. The only time when a
the statistical bureau was four years ago.
Then figures approximating the average for
the month were circulated among specula-
tors some time before the average was given
out by the department.. A western price
current" offered to produce evidence that
this information came from the statis-
tician's office, but when Mr.. Dodge de-
| "a II he ~
This is the only time in the history Of
the department when anything even
approximating the figures of the monthly
bulletin, has been announced in advance,
and the only explanation of this which the
| statistician's Office could find was that the
| figures for that month were SO nearly like
| the figures of the preceding month that
clever man, well informed from day to day
through the dispatches received by dealers
and spectators and the newspapers,
could form fairly accurate es-
innate of the results of the month.
| The material for the monthly crop bull
letin Is gathered by an active corps of more
than 10000 unpaid agents. In every
producing county in the United States is q
correspondent of the agricultural depart
mert, and each Of these correspondents has
three assistants. There are now about
| 1850 of these correspondents. They and
their assistants receive no compensation,
but they get long supply Of depart
ment publications and of seeds,
and all the stationery used for
their work is furnished to them. These
agents of the departments are almost
exclusively farmers. Occasionally a coun-
| try physician is found on the list. His op-
| portunities for observation are quite as
good as those of the farmer. From
these men a much better service is obtained
than could be had if any salary was attached
to the position, because salaried position
| would be sought by incompetent men purely
for the emolument, while the farmer gives
his services to the department in protec-
| ton of his own interests. In addition to
| this enormous force of volunteer CORE
spondents the departments now has In
nearly all of the states salaried state agents
| who have organized a parallel system of
reports through correspondent in the
counties, entirely independent of the county
correspondents, whose reports are made di-
rectly to the department here. The last APP
preparation bill made provision for the en-
ployment of state agents everywhere, and
the force will soon be extended to cover the
entire country.
The statistician sends each mouth TO the
correspondents of the department circular
containing certain questions. In February
these concern only live stock. In March,
the month which practically winds up the
crop years record, the questions are about
the commercial distribution of cereals. At
the beginning of April the questions con-
Germ the condition of the growing crops, etc.
In October and November the department
inquiries about the probable yield per acre.
In December its inquiries are for a
final estimate of the product of the
year. These questions require, usually,
mathematical answers. Taking 100 per
cent. as the normal condition, the corre-
spondents are asked to indicate the condi-
ton of the crops in their vicinity by figures
based on this percentage. The actual
average is not taken, because this would
be misleading. as some counties pro-
duce twenty times as much as others, and
the high average of the small would raise
that of all the large ones. The average of
each county is multiplied by the proportion
of the crop grown in that county, and thus
an extended average" is obtained which
gives approximately correct idea of the
product.
With such an enormous corps OF cor
respondents it would be impossible for any
collision to exist which would affect or con-
troll the market by the making of false res
ports to the sta5istician's Office. Besides,
the statistician has in the reports Of state
agents and the reports of agricultural
boards organized under state supervision,
constant checks upon the departments cor
| resDondents