The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1890-01-19
IRON IS NOW THE KING.
BRADSTREETS EDITOR ON THE
TRADE OUTLOOK FOR 1890
Cereals, Wool, and Woolens Weak
While Iron has a Boom-Causes that
May Prevent a Season Of Prosperity.
A fsg Iron Joke.

(Copyri9htl
NEW YORK, jan. 1S.-The latter half of
1889, taken as a whole, was undoubtedly
the most prosperous in industrial and COM
mercial circles in the United States since
the boom periods Of 1SSO-'s1. The early
half of the year was marked by a species
of paving the way for the increased trans
actions Of the later months, and the out
look now is for a year of prosperous bust
ness-so far as 1890 may be gagged in
advance.
But the question has arisen among think
Ing men: Are we not going too fast in spe-
clal inesi And will not the prolonged
In sharp contrast with almost a boom in
iron aud steel, tend to prevent season of
general prosperity
IL will be interesting, first, to draw a
rough comparison between the characters
tics Of lS79-S0, aud those of lSS9-'9O, to
learn, in so far as we may, the differences
as we'll as the Likeness ses, with reference to
general trade in the United States in those
periods
To begin, the earlier years named found
Europe 10 need of large quantities of wheat
from abroad. India, Australia aud Argen-
tine had not then risen to the dignity of
exporters of wheat, which they have since
attained, aud, for that matter, neither had
Russia And as fortune would have it, the
United States succeeded in raising large
crops of wheat and in selling
the surplus abroad at good prices.
This stimulated general trade here
and the industrial expansion and rail-
way building which followed, found our in
dustries utterly unable TO supply the home
demand Naturally, large importations
followed, and we being largely at the mercy
OF foreign makers, prices were prOdigiouslY
expanded. Then came the boom in general
trade, which reacted sharply in 1888, and in
1884 resulted in a severe shrinkage of credits
and financial panic.
Within the past year pronounced ex-
panslon in general trade has set in, but
under much more conservative conditions.
Our previous expansion in the iron and
steel industries had far outrun the home de-
mand, but when the gradual and steady
increase in request for pig-iron became con
| splcuOuS in 1889, for iron pipes, for car
| wheels and other railway rolling stock
| appurtenances; for bridges and for build
| ings, as well as for multlform other uses
| furnaces which had been regarded as almost
| useless found their product in demand and
new furnaces had to be- built, and for
that matter are still being constructed.
| $3.50 far as cereals are concerned, the situa-
ton has changed also. Our average annual
pIOAuCtlOu VI WubAk lbI uNb years Ddbb mas
not been far from 450, 100000 bushels, a
| larger proportion Of which has been re-
quired for food at home than was SO re-
quired from an almost equal average annual
production FROM 1880 to 1884, which has off
set to an extent the decreased annual ex-
portation of wheat during the latter half of
the past decade. Thus the loss, in part,
Of a sudden or enlarged European demand,
such as we had ten years ago, has not been
81 20 - IA
! would otherwise have been. Another ele-
ment of conservatism at this time is found
in the check to unbridled railway extension
thus tending TO restrict expectations of steel
makers. The latter, however, are fairly
well supplied with steel orders, the output of
steel rails for 1889 being about 1,5OO, 600
tons-about equal to the record for 1888.
The United States is then in a somewhat
anomalous position, industrialy, being for
the first time in their history enjoying a
domestic demand for iron trifie 10 excess
of existing home producing capacity-with-
out fear OF foreign competition; for neither
the United Kingdom, Belgium, France or
Germany, the great iron aud steel producers
of Europe, can sell us iron or steel at this
time. Their capacity is now being taxed
with orders at home aud from other parts
of the world, and orders of any moment
from the United States, even if sent abroad,
could not be filed in the near future, ire
spective Of price, as soon as they can be at
home.
Mr.. Andrew Carnegie, an excellent au-
thority says: GAS long as the surplus of
the foreign manufacture cannot be thrown
on our markets regardless OF COST so long
will the iron and steel industry Of America
be prosperous"
This is true with limitations. until suffi-
Gent new capital is tempted into build
ing furnaces and mills to cause productive
capacity to outrun demand.
Thus far we appear to be some distance
from the latter contingency.
The only product in this line which we
are buying abroad is spiegeleisen, for VIII ich
we are paying $3.50 or S37 per ton, or, for
that containing 50 per cent. of manganese,
S100 per ton-or, "whatever foreign hold
ers are a mind to ask" This is because we
cannot supply our own demands for spiegel
for the steel industry.
The reverse picture is found in the live
prices for wheat, corn, oats, and cotton, but
these crops "are about per cent. larger in
aggregate value than a year ago. owing to
heavier yields. No one has ventured to
predict an early advancesin wool or cotton,
and coffee, with an opera bouffe revolution
in Brazil (where most Of our coffee comes
'front.' refuses 10 be stimulated to any
extent. Copper is 20 per cent. lower within
the year, after the collapse Of the great
French copper syndicate. Print cloths are
lower than year ago-about 10 per cent
while pork prices are nearly one-third
lower, and those of sugar nearly one
seventh.
But there is a favorable point of view for
these considerations, namely, that cheap
food tends to stimulate consumption Of
manufac ured products. Yet TO producers
Of food products the prospect is depressing
On the whole, the outlook is for a contiuu-
alton Of the large demand for iron with
immunity from foreign competition. 1t is
not unlikely, too, that the statistical posi-
tion Of wheat, which is much stronger than
the market price therefore, may yet exert
an influence which will make glad the
farmer. An improved demand for wool
and for woolens is less certain.
The newspaper and other talk Of exports
of American pig iron, of which there has
been considerable Of late, is without founda-
ton. No pig iron has been exported to
Europe from the United States and none is
likely TO be so log as the ocean freight
market continues as active, and rates of
ocean transportation as high as they have
been for months past. There was, however,
an incident which became the basis Of
recent published statements that inquiries
had been made here from abroad for iron 20
be exported, and, in some instances, that
iron had actually gone abroad.
A prominent iron dealer on Wall street,
while talking recently with b. g. Clarke,
manager of the Thomas Iron Company.
rafarrad N tina Gf.hiacr of ,roy,