The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1890-02-03
VISIBLE GRAIN SUPPLY.
THE WORLD NOW WATCHING
UNCL E SANS FOOD PRODUCTS.

for EXDOrt-PrOduce Exchange Old
FoRy ism.
CCopyriQhtl
NEW YoRK, Feb. The most import
ant statistics bearing upon the grain trade.
next to those Of production, are those Of
accumulated stocks out of farmers hands.
This is not difficult to appreciate.
With an approximately accurate knowl-
edge of the yields of wheat in the United
States and in other countries which pro-
duce mere wheat than they consume, one
may estimate fairly the home consumption
in each instance. and with the aid of like
data from the leading wheat importing
nations, United Kingdom, France, Portu-
gal, aud others, all that remains to deter
mine the probable import requirements Of
the latter is a fair understanding of stocks
of wheat on hand at the beginning of a
| cereal year-say Aug !.
When the probable wheat requirements
in countries which have to import TO supple
ment their own haIveSts are arrived at ap-
proximately, it becomes important to
ascertain stocks on hand in countries which
usually have wheat to export: after which
if this be acc omplished-the long-heade1
grain merchant at New York or Chicago,
for instance, may, with some degree of in
| telligeuce, calculate tho probable, or posi-
BILE quantity of wheat to be sent from the
United States during year from one
August to another
Let us suppose a case.
We will say that the United Kingdom
will have to import more wheat than usual
for the year ending with Aug. /, 1890; this
! being determined by a smaller yield of
wheat there in 1889 than in 1888 and by
smaller stocks on hand on Jan. 1, 1890, than
a year ago.
1t may also be promised that Russia,
generally a heavy exporter of wheat will
have less than usual to ship; that Aus
tralasan shipments will not be available
| for some months to come, and that Cali
| fornia exports are made at too great dis
lance from Europe to meet sudden require
| ments.
| The possibilities of India may be regarded
as doubtful as TO quantity. Stocks of wheat
throughout Europe have all been depleted
and all of these suppositions are quite close
to the facts-and by inference the conclu-
sion is reached that Atlantic port wheat
| shipments are to derive increased impor-
| lance between this time and Aug. |,
The ability of the United States TO export
wheat between August, 1889, and August,
| 1890, determine as follows:
Domestic wheat crops of 1889. 1870, 900 900
! Needed for food at home 295, 900 900
Needed for seed at home. 52,000000
| Needed for manufactures
and arts. 1900 000-362,0 100000
Available for export (bushels). -. 12s, 900 900
This is reached by presuming that the
| $4,000, 900 bushels of wheat on hand lin and
out of farmers hands, on Aug. !, 1899, will
| prove sufficient to carry us into the new
| cereal year seven months hence Out of
these 1913 0O000 bushels we have exported
about 100000 bushels, leaving, say,
| 100000 bushels for export during six
months to come.
Ringing upon our calculated ability to
export 100000 bushels within six months,
comes the available wheat I'm sight" in the
| United States, east of the Rocky noun
tains; that is, in the United States and
Canada, for our wheat exports to the do
minion annually have about equaled the
latter's exports; for if the farmers hold
| back their wheat, it cannot well be exported
except at higher prices, at figures which
| will induce the growers to part with it.
1t may thus be seen how important it is
| to know what is the total visible supply of
wheat" tributary to the Atlantic ports.
The inventor of the visible supply Of
wheat report is Elmer II. Walker, for many
wears statistician OF the New York Produce
| Exchange. Some twenty years or so ago,
he began this work by collating weekly for
the exchange at New York totals of stocks
| of wheat at points of accumulation where.
| at that time, the bulk of all stocks tout of
farmers hands" were held, viz: Mil
waukee, Chicago, Peoria, Kansas City, st.
Louis, Chicago, Indianapolis Detroit,
ba SSa0 Boaton, Toronto 6uai aontre AL
Oswego, New York, Philadelphia and
| Baltimore. Within few years Minneap-
| oils, Duluth and st. Paul were added 10 the
| list, about which time the Chicago Board of
Trade began the compilation each week of
| visible supply report of its own, claiming
| that the New York statement was too slow
| in appearing, not then being given out until
| Thursdays following the Saturdays for
| which totals of stocks on hand were COM
| piled.
This rivalry proved fortunate, and in the
race for prompt returns both reports began
to appear on Mondays, as they do to this
| day.
The Importance of these official visible
supply reports was speedily recognized
abroad, and each week the total of wheat
and of corn. oats. barley and rye, are cabled
to leading European grain markets
Five or six years ago called the atten-
ton of several members of the New York
| Produce Exchange to the inadequancy of its
weekly visible supply of wheat, showed
| them how it failed to explain the actual
condition of stocks, If it was not, at Uimes
actually misleading.
Mr.. Walker, Il good friend of mine.
asked: What would you propose as a
| substituteF
well" l replied, "since you began this
visible supply report, stocks of wheat have
come to be held at many interior points
where none were formerly stored, and il
| heavy movement of wheat from farmers
hands to these outlying interior points of ac-
emulation should set in your weekly visi-
bic supply would not show it."
but our report has been kept up for
years, and we are thus enabled to present
comparisons with each new set of totals.
What could be done with such report as
you suggest without comparative totalsW
keep it going until comparative totals
accumulated"
But such report would not be Official"
he objected.
"What do you mean by officials"
"Our totals are obtained from officials in
charge of grain warehouses, and we know
them to be correct. We collate them. nut
the stamps of the New York Produce Ex-
change upon them, and send them out as
official IL you obtained Leavenworth.
St Joseph, Memphis, New Orleans, Nash
vile and Port Huron stocks, besides sup
plies at forty or more other points of acci-
mutation, In addition to supplies at 800 or
900 railway elevators which, as you saw.
have sprung up in Minnesota, Dakota, Wis
consin and Iowa. how do you know, or how