Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1890-11-15
WEATHER FORECASTS.
Some of the Work of the United
States Signal Service.
THE MEN MOST SKILLED.
Those Who Have Served the Longest
md Have Been Most Successful i'm
Their Predictious-Care Required i'm
Making calculations.

Ithfence, and there is present with US al
"a kways the serious problem Of how to
"a accept it and mako the most use of it.
Cool weather has its evident value. but so, to
less striking degree, has bad weather. In the
first place, all sorts of weather form one of the
most convenient forms of conversation and
here il is positive boon to mankind. or rather
that half Of mankind that is engaged in talking
TO the other half. Conversation would be a
desoIate and burning waste were ii not for the
forethought of good Providence that pro-
vidsd some sort of universal topic on which all
tongues could wag without knowing the least
about it
But that is only one boon conferred by the
elements. There are others and just as striking.
IL seems that the world grows in age and
knowledge there is an ever increasing demand
for information about things which have not
yet come to pass. There Is a surprising desire
on the part of the public to peep into the inner
temple of the future and see there what is about
to happen, not being satisfied with what is hap
pening to happen at the present time. As a
result fortune tellers and sootbsayers, prophets
and astrologers, makers of horoscopes and
other interesting personages have been driving
n profitable business ever since work was
first started on this planet. They have simply
LtAeu VI "uLt IS pOitlCaA
economy which, it might be said, has less to
do with things political than person not initi-
ated into its mysteries would at first suppose
i'll political economy, then, as demand" The
creation Of a supply was an easy matter, for
such is the nature of human ingenuity that il
there is the least provocation for the produc-
ton of anything it is sure to come forth and
flourish. Hence prediction was born, G. cold
h1af
aboutit.
THE WEATHER PROPHETS.
But weather has another errand in the uni
verse. a more personal one, affecting COM
paratively few people. but each one in himself
such part or parcel of the business of sooth-
saying that were weather abolished tomorrow
by law he would find himself with half Of his
occupation gone. These men are the weather
prophets who labor daily in order that this de-
mand for futuritlve knowledge on the part of
an Unsuitable public may be partially complied
with. But they are but the opponents of q
tendency that has always existed in the minds
of mankind, tendency that has crystallized
itself into records in the form of quaint say
ings and distiches that bear some clever allusion
to the weather probabilities of the next few
hours. Farmers and sailors are the prin-
cipal contributors to this form of iitera-
ture and the weather forecasts" that are
thus made standard guides to public health
''Open and shet. sign O. wetr' There is one
born Of the potato patch and the corn field.
Here is one that smacks of the SALT salt sea:
"a red sky at night is the sailors delight; a
red sky IN the morning is the sailors Warming"
Dew drops on cobwebs are taken as efficient
barometric signals of rain.
A hog running about with q straw in It's
mouth means the same thing Miniature
vhlrlwinds IN the road foretell storms. Cup
shaped leaves presage moisture. The hang
Ing of the moon so that the inner side OF the
can't
sign that there will be a precipitation while q
moon turned the other way will be followed by
drought. These and thousands of other
homely ways of foretelling the weather have
ably continue to exist throughout all sorts Of
civilizations.
WHERE SCIENCE COMES IN.
But there is such thing al science in look
ing forward to see what is coming in the way
of elemental conditions, a science SO we'll de-
fHed and yet so difficult to master that il has
been made the object of lifelong study on
the part of some Of the wisest men this coun-
try has ever produced 1t needs certain char
acteristics in mans composition in order that
he may become proficient in the business Of
weather prediction. The ideal prophet has no
nerves, but strong memory, plenty OF conf
dence in his own ability and yet no reckless
ness. well-balanced amount Of speculation
Is also needed, and above all, experience. There
are many men who have become mere clear
day prophets and yet nothing more because
they are afraid to venture opinions, to take
risks. while Others, with perhaps less scientific
technical knowledge, are more successful in
their work because they comprehend that there
must be an element of chance in it all and re-
sort at the proper time to q judicious amount
OF shrewd guessing.
Experience proves the mainstay Of them all
however, and without it a weather prophet is a
farce. Rules are worthless to the man who has
not spent days and nights in an effort to keep
track OF half a dozen storms at once to foresee
the weather for hundreds of thousands of square
miles at a glance, who has not had to face the
music OF errors that are sure 10 occur, and who
has not worked earnestly to supply out of the
things that are happening every day all around
him the facts and guides that all the rules and
text books ever written cannot furnish. man
who has had three months OF actual experience
a. prognosticatOr of what Is to be expected
j. worth ten who have spen. halt their lives in
the mere study Of what ought to happen If
everything went OFF according to program,
which IL never does.
THE AMERICAN SIGNAL SERVICE
The American signal service has had charge
Of the weather predictions for nearly two
decades, and now that it has been able to build