The Hawaiian gazette., 1890-06-10
THE OUTLOOK.


Private letters will convey individ-
uai opinions on the sugar question,
and no doubt much gloomy fore
boding and uncertainty will be ex-
pressed. Perhaps the impression
thus carried may be darker colored
than the facts warrant, with no
knowledge as to what disposition
the Senate has made or will make
of the tariff bill, 1t is impossible to
indicate any conclusive opinion as
that of our community. At present
we know that the House has ex-
pressed its opinion in favor of re-
moval of all sugar duties, and in
favor of bounty to producers.
We also know that the President
and both branches of Congress are
Republican, and it appears probable
that the duty may be finally re-
moved by the present Congress. 1t
has been an extremely favorable
time to make strike at sugar. In
the United States it is raised chiefly
by Democratic States, and the great
hub bub and cutlery in the country
against trusts, aimed chiefly at the
sugar trust, has given the majority
"a chance to earn little cheap pop
ularity and perhaps gain votes
and they need them-by removing
the sugar duties But the Senate
is very much more conservative
branch than the House, and it is
thought that this body will con-
slider very carefully before striking
fifty millions, not to say seventy
millions, at blew, from the ma
tional income and at the same time
take the weight of the blow in the
States from the producers and from
the promising beet sugar industry
by the very doubtful and un-Amer-
lean plan of bounty. 1t is thought
also that such further pension
measures will become law at this
Congress as to materially increase
the expenditure in that direction, in
which case caution will have to be
used in cutting off the receipts. 1t
is probable that the Senate, if it
does not pass the repeal of the
sugar duty, will at least cut it down
from thirty to fifty per cent. This
course seems the most probable.
But supposing we lose the entire
benefit of the treaty by our abso-
lutte repeal of the duty. what
next? For us the important ques-
ton will be, what price are
we to get for our sugar? The
price will be just what the market
price in the rest OF the world hap
pens to be, and that of course will
depend on the supply from time to
time. Countries which cannot
raise sugar cheaply must submit to
defeat in the business. Perhaps we
shall have something of the same
experience which was observed in
1876.
When the Reciprocity Treaty
went into effect it was popularity
supposed that the consumer of
sugar on the Pacific Coast was GO
ing to get his coffee sweetened at
one to two cents pound cheaper.
The economist and statistician
knew differently and said that the
producer and refner would make
the difference, and they did 1t
was the effect intended in Wash
ington, and it was known that the
benefit resulting to the United
States would, or ought to be, in
creased trade and commerce, and
that result has been attained also
For now the United States sell US
over 70 per cent. of all of our i'm
ports and carries over 80 per cent.
of our entire carrying trade. This
is better showing than appears
for the States with any other
foreign country. Since the treaty
went into effect, our imports have
increased nearly four hundred per
cent, or from ST, 500, 900 to $685.
900. Most of this has gone into
the hands of merchants, mechanics,
artizans and farmers on the Pacific
Coast.
The price of sugar in the United
States will fall as soon as the
worlds production SO increases
over the demand as to bring about
that result. The Cuban or Mexican
or Chinese grower of sugar is not
going to sell to America at any
price which would net him from
half to cent more than what he
could get before, if he can get more
in London. The grower is going
to continue to sell where he can
get the best price. But the re-
moval of duty will have this i'm
portant effect: it will stimulate the
growth of sugar in those countries
near the United States where the
industry has languished and been
largely ruined for the past three or
four years by the low price of
o, Tba Ioxu n,.inn hos haau