Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1890-10-14
Special corrsspondsncs of The EVENING sra..

The candidates for Congress in New York
state now all in the field and all those
forces that have their rise in the personality
of the nominees can now be at least approx
mately measured. The first fourteen districts
OF the state, taken in numerical order-that
part Of the state known TO politicians as
"below Harlem'-are solidly democratic with
the single exception Of the third, which has a
big massed republican majority. The remain
Ing district that almost always returns a demo-
Graf Is the nineteenth or Albany district. When
the present apportionment was made in 1883
two more districts, the fifteenth and the
fwenty-fourth, were given slight democratic
lnajorities and the twenty-eighth was made a
district in which a democrat might win by
great effort. The remaining districts we're
made republican. This apportionment, made
by the democrats, was designed to give the
democrats and the republicans each seventeen
districts under normal conditions and to per-
NIT each party, by the merit OF its cause or its
Candidates, to win the majority OF the delega-
ton.
The situation in the state this year will now
De clear when IT Is said that in the opinion Of
all impartial observers the democrats are sure
70 carry fourteen districts. while the republ-
cans nave only eleven on which they can count
with absolute certainty. Nine districts are the
battle ground this year, an unusually large
number.
DEMOCRATS WHO ARE SURE OF SUCCESS.
The following democratic members of the
present House have been renominated and
their reelection is sure as anything in the
political future well be: Covert in the
first. Clancy in the fourth Magner in the fifth
Cummings in the ninth, Spinola in the tenth,
Flower IN the twelfth. Fitch in the thirteenth,
Stahlnecker in the fourteenth and Tracey in the
nineteenth. OF the remaining sure democratic
districts the second will elect David A. Body,
a pronounced tariff reformer of BROOKLYN
Felix Campbell having declined a renomina-
ton. Turner, the lceman, in the sixth, is not
TO be renOminated but the district will elect
democrat yet to be named. In the seventh
Dunphy has been renominated by Tammany,
and Croasdale, the editor of Henry Georges
Standard, by the county democrats. All the
voters to speak OF in the district are democrats
and the double nomination docs no harm to
democratic chances. The reelection of Dun
ply Is probable at this writing. Tim Campbell
OF tbs Fiftleth Congress will be elected in the
eighth to succeed Mccarthy. John Dewitt
Warner, who will represent the eleventh dis
trIct IN place of QUINN is the moving spirit Of
the New York Tariff Reform Club.
ELEVEN SURE REPUBLICAN DISTRICTS
Turning to the eleven sure republican dis
tricts the list Of renominees is quite brief
Wallace will return from the third, Ketcham
from the sixteenth, Quackenbush (probably)
from the eighteenth Belden from the TWENTY
NTH, Payne from the twenty-seventh and
Eaines from the twenty-ninth. All the rest of
the delegation has gone by the board From
the twenty-frst John NJ Viewer, Plattsburgh
banker, Will come to succeed Motif; Leslie W.
Russell. an ex-attOrney general of the state
succeeds Lansing IN the twenty-second; Geo
W. Ray, member of the FOrty-eighth Con-
gress. will be elected to succeed Deiano in the
tventy-siXth; James ". Wadsworth. a member
of the Forty-eighth Congress, will succeed
Sawyer in the thirty-first, and Warren B.
Hooker, a new and very young man, is to sue
coed Laidlaw in the thirty-fou
NINE UNCERTAIN DISTRICTS.
These fourteen sure democratic and eleven
sure republican districts leave only nine dis
tricts to be fought over, and in these nine the
contest promises to be very hot Only one Of
these. the thlrty-thlrd, Is now represented by a
democrat. In that district the same causes that
elected John Wiley two years ago are likely to
elect as his democratic successor Thomas W.
Bunting, country merchant of Erie county
The republican nomination belonged to Ming
ara this year by custom, and ex-Congressman
Richard III. Crowley controlled the delegation
from that county. Two years ago the nomina-
zion belonged to Niagara also, but Crowley
made deal with the Erie delegates, who NOM
mated him against Niagara's protest, and he
was defeated Niagara county then bolted
him. This year Erie county defeated his nom
ination after it had been conceded to him and
tho nomination was bestowed on George Ii.
Davis OF Erie, new man. The chances are
strongly in favor of the election of Bunting
II Is SO sure as to admit OF no reasonable
question that Henry Bacon, q member of the
FIftieth Congress, will be elected from the fl
teenth district, giving the democrats another
district. Stivers declined to run again against
him and the republican nominee, Clarence
Lexow, a young New York lawyer, has no
special strength.
In the thirtieth district the issue is almost
Wholly personal The republicans threw over
board Congressman Baker and named In his
stead John Van Voorhis, who served in the
forty-seyenth Congress- He is extremely I'M
popular and the democrats awaited themselves
OF tins opportunity to nominate Col. Halbert
b Greenleaf. who served in the Forty-ninth
Congress. The district is normally republican
Dy 4'OOO, but 1t is even fighting ground this
year. Speaker Reed is to make one of his few
speeches IN the state IN that district
LOCKWOOD HAS GOOD CHANCE
In the thirty-second district not dissmilar
state Of AFFAIRS exists. Congressman Farauhar
was refused q denomination and ex-senator
Ben S. Williams, who is not personally popular.
was named IN his stead The democrats eagerly
seized this opportunity to nominate their most
popular man, the Hon. Daniel Lockwood who
served in the Forty fifth Congress and was
CIevelands mascot, nominating him for
mayor, governor and President There is
little doubt that Lockwood will win
Congressman Sanford IN the twentieth and
Congressman Sherman IN the twenty-third are
facing hard nights in their respective districts
federal patronage. The democrats have nomi-
mated against Sanford Alex. Il. Baucus who
has carried the district for state senator. and
Is the strongest democrat in the district The
district viii be very close, and no conjecture of
the result Is of much value on account of the
new election laws. Hitherto the district has
feen the most corrupt in the state, and what
The result OF shutting down on the buying Of
votes at the polls will be is problematicaL In
the twenty-third present appearances favor the
return OF sherman, but Speaker Reed has felt
IL necessary to come to his relief Each of
these districts Is counted republican by l,5O0 to
2,OOO and the contest in each shows the vigor OF
HE democratic attack along the whole line.
The tventy-fourth district resembles the
twentieth IN its corruption in the past. II il
normally democratic district and the chances
favor the election Of George Van Horn
Dealer IN hops, who has served as county clerk
OF Otsego county, although ex-State Senator
FRANK b. Arnold, the republican nominee Ia
the strongest man his party could have named
Arnold Is also the candidate for the unexpired
Term OF the late Congressman WILDER while
tne democrats have nominated for that ter m
John ;. Pindar, who served in the Fiftieth
Congress.
CHANCES FAVOR TEALK.
In the seventeenth district Congressman
Knapp declined a denomination, having moved
out OF the district The republicans have nomi-
mated Theodore c. Teale, formerly a membar
Of the republican state committee and the
manager of Lew L. Morton's two canvasses for
the United States Senate. The democrats have
named Isaac N Cox, former member OF their
state committee and a man interested in rail
road and business prOiects The dis,r;ct a. .