Staunton spectator. [volume] (Staunton, Va.) 1849-1896, 1890-07-16
Stauntotl Spectator,
WEDNESDAY,.JULY I6. 1880.
The Outlook.

The Outlook.
1t seems to be conceded that the stock of
wheat on hand in the United States, in |
Guiding both coasts, on the 30th OF June, |
was about fifty million bushels, six millions
more than at the same time last year.
Taking that estimate az correct, we enter
the new cereal year with larger reserve
than we did one year ago, Notwithstanding
the exports of breadstuffs, including wheat
and wheat -four and corn, were larger for
the past than the previous year. This
surplus, however, should exercise but little
influence in determining the values or in of
setting the deficiencies of the wheat'crop OF
1890. We have regularly compiled infor-
nation of the wheatcrop as it came out OF
winter quarters in the winter-wheat States,
the estimates of which are familiar to oul
readers. Threshing has commenced in the
Southern portion of the belt, and the yield
verifies the conclusion of diminished pro.
duction. As threshing proceeds north
ward from Texas, the evidence is the
same, and the deficiencies in Ohio, In.
diana and Illinois especially, will make
large reduction in the usual yield of those
States, and in the amount for export. Mis-
souri, and Kansas will hardly do as well as
they did last year, and SO far the Michigan
section of winter-wheat production will be
the only full yield. The middle and
southern Atlantic States will fall short as
the crop is measured up. The increased
surplus over the previous year adverted to
will be but as grain in the measure in the
deficiency in the account of the winter
wheat belt CoDjectures as to the yield OF
spring-wheat are conflicting. The weather
in much of the territory where it is culti-
waited, has not been favorable, intense heat
following heavy rains. Seeding, as gen.
eral thing, was late, and all that is in any
measure backward in the higher ATTITUDES
may have to meet the contingency of August
end September frosts.
On the continent Russia will probably be
the only country which will sustain itself
in surplus yield of wheat. India, which
has made such immense progress in wheat
culture and which is constantly increasing
its millions of bushels for export, is known
to be far behind in the harvest of $780,
Nor did the yields of the other countries
coming into note with increasing surplus,
which harvest their crops in the early
months of the year, equal the production
of recent previous years.
T s'7gtv glance over the wide scope OF
whsss etion in which only few
I5m... fields are mentioned, is sufficient
to warrant the conclusion that the purchas-
ing countries will find smaller margins in
nearly all the surplus producing countries
than was the case last year.
There are circumstances, indeed facts,
which are satisfactory to many minds
investigating the subject of the yield of
wheat in 1889 in the United States, that
the product was over estimated and, if so,
the excess Of surplus now as compared
with one year ago does rot exist. A fact
which strongly sustains this conclusion Is
the known scarcity of wheat available for
he interior millers in the
..ssyfn and Southwestern States.
We are not accustomed to draw con-
illusions as to prices for wheat from the
yield, whether large or small, in the At
lantic coast States. Such influences, be-
cause CT the greater and growing culture in
the States of the Mississippi Valley and on
the Pacific slope, are conceded to exist
there. 1t is, however, worthy of being
stated that the crop of Southern wheat in
1890 has commenced to go on the market
much earlier and in larger quantities than
in 1889. The wet season of 1889, delaying
harvesting and threshing, may have had
something to do with that, but the pressing
needs Of millers, and the slightly improving
export demand, we t@ink, has much more
to do with the rapid movements of wheat
to the sea coast distributing points than
other causes. sSsaS
The predic is already made that as
Texas, TeDnes g, and Kentucky will not
average more than eight bushels to the
acre, the milIers in those States will at
very early day be drawing supplies from
the States above, and there is ground for
similar conclusion in much of the country
on the Atlantic slope which will require
heavier drafts than usual upon the Western
surplus. Still none OF these facts are suf-
ficient upon which to predicate an assured
belief in rising prices; but there are other
facts already adverted to, which, we think,
will exercise controlling influence in that
respect. When the seven great grain
growing States of the West fall out of line,
not only in their usual manner of annually
Increasing production, but fall far behind
in the aggregate in wheat in 1890, as they
did in corn a few previous seasons, then
there is solid ground for belief that an i'm
proved condition of prices must come to
pass. If the broader view be adopted, con-
ceding that the lever which controls all
countries is in Liverpool, even then this
belief should not be weakened. The effect
should be the same, though there are many
conditions adverse to our interests as ex-
porters of breadstuffs to which English
craftsmanship and commerce can subject
them. The United Kingdom requires more
breadstuffs by purchase than any other
country. That important matter is watched
and guarded by superior ability and handled
with real strategy, and it is marvellous to
observe with what facility the values to ex-
porting countries can be fixed by the
greatest of importing interests. The in
creased export of corn from the United
States in the face of two of the largest
crops ever produced and another of the
same order in full view gives really no adj
vantage to us as grain-growers, but tells
hurtfully on the vital points as it has
gradually aided in decreasing our exports