New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1890-11-03
MR.. MCKINLEY'S GREAT TASK.
CAN THE REPUBLICAN LEADER BEAT THE
GERRYMANDER?

THE OUTLOOK FOR REPUBLICAN SUCCESS GROW
ING BRIGHTER HoURLY-AN ANALYSIS OF
TIE ELECTION FIGURES IN HIS DIS
TRIcT-THE MAJOR cHEERFUL
AND CONFIDENT.
BY TELEGRAPH TIE TkIDrNE'I
a Canton. Ohio Nov 2-Though Mr.. Mckinley
will continue his speaking canvass in this dis
trict late into tomorrow evening the last rally
of the campaign being held here in Canton, prac-
tically his gallant fight against the gerryinander
has been made, and nothing remains but 10 await
the verdict to be given to his candidacy heNt
Tuesday at the polls. The contest mas oeen
earnest and vigorous from the start, ana Ihoueh
an uphill one al the beginning Tor The Repup-
lican leader ends now apparently with odos on
neither side. Before Mr. McKinleys personal
canvass began there were few who doubted that
his opponent would be elected by at least l,5Oo
majority. To-day, so steadily has pubic con-
idencc grown in the Majors ability to attract
Democratic votes, wagers are being iald as Freely
on his success as against it. Each side, Of
course, has some good ground for its assurance,
Democratic trust in Mr.. Warwick's triumph is
based on that unyielding prejudice and partisan
ship which the intensity of Ohio politics has
party majority Of 1000 is counted powerful
enough to drive ont of public life one of the most
intelligent laborers and distinguished of American
politioal leaders. Or the other hand faith in Mr.
McKinlev's success is founded his undoubted
popularity, his blamcless reputation and his long
and honorable service TO his State and his district
in the National House of Representatives. Party
lines il is believed cannot be drawn successfully
to defeat so strong and uneXceptionable candl-
date and Mr. McKiney's worth and merit are
depcnded upon TO triumph over the shameless and
unCenerons subterfuge by which his enemies at
Columbus last winter sought to retire him TO
private life Which confidence is the better founded
need not be anticipated Which is more credta-
bic to the State the district and the country 1t
would be superfuous TO point out
The managers of Mr.. Warwicks canvass are
still "caming" the district by from 1000 to
1900 They announce that the Democratic can
didate will carry Holmes County by l,s0O and
Wayne by 500 Medina County, they estimate Will
give Mckinley 1.l00. and Stark County may go
by 90 or 200 either way. The more hopeful Re
publicans, on the contrary, expect to see Medina
County give Mr. Mckinley 400 majority. and
Stark County 500; against which they concede
Mr. Warwick 800 in Holmes County and 100
or 200 in Wayne To appreciate the value of these
estimates the normal Republican and Democratic
majorities in the four counties must be taken
into account The votes in the district in ss7,
1898 and 1899 have already been fully analyzed
and tabulaed in these dispatches AS shown
In an earlier article in The Tribune. Mr.. Cleve-
land carried three out of the four counties
WAYNE. Stark and Holmes-by aggregate
majority of 3,2O5, and lost Medina by 1,152,
leaving him net majority of 2,053. The exact
Democratic majority in Stark County was 331,
in WAYNE 727, in Holmes 2,147. Stark County,
being by far the largest and most populous por-
ton of the district, and the centre OF a growing
manufacturing interest, has been the most promls-
ing fghting-g ground for the Republicans. Canton
the county seat, is Mr.. Mckinleys home ana
has ALWAYS honored him with fattering vote
total poll of about 10000 in the county, a
change of from 400 to 500 Democratic votes
to the Republican side, is easily within prob
ability. and a still more striking revolution than
that is not incredible. Five hundred Demo-
cratic ballots cast for Mr.. Mckinley
would give him Stark County by nearly
700, and practically insure reelection
In Wayne County the Republican canvass has
also met with great apparent success Democratic
aid has been promised TO Mr.. Mckinley at various
points, and the local managers expect 10 make
the contest on next Tuesday at least draw. A
change in this county OF 800 votes would practi-
caly wine out the Democratic majority of 1888.
The Medina County Republicans are ambitious to
poll the largest vote in their history on TUESDAY.
They have already made careful canvass OF
the county. which shows majority of 1868 for
Mr. Mckinley This figure, it is believed. can he
increased to 400 day after tomorrow.
With Wayne County a tie and Republican
plurality of from 900 to 1000 in Stark and
Medina the whole contest will be left to be de-
cided in Holmes County. Mr.. Warwick. IL is con-
coded cannot poll the vote there drawn out by
the Cleveland campaign of 1888. His friends ad-
NIT that the most he can hope for is a majority
the county TO Mr. Warwicks candidacy, and a
good deal of silent dissatisfaction over it.
Dr. Bigham, of Milersbprg. one Of the active Re
publican leaders there stated last Tuesday that
at least 200 Democrats in the county would vote
for Mckinley. If this promise Is carried out
Holmes COunty's 800 plurality will not he sui
cient to save the Democratic candidate from de-
feat Beating an ingenious gerrymander like that
achieved in the new XVIth District is difficult
work however: and it will be no discredt 10
Major Mckinley if even his great reputation and
popularity are not equal 10 the task.
The canvass in the other Ohio districts ends
with brighter prospects Of Republican success
than were Thought possible month ago. Last
winters eerrymander was designed to give the
Republicans not more than six districts ont Of
twenty-one. II looks now as if seven districts
were sure to 90 Republican and eight pretty GER
tain to he Democratic. The other six are doubt
full with chances almost even on both sides
Mr.. Mckinley spent to-day quietly at his home.
He is in good health and the best of spirits. and
is looking forward 10 Tuesdays election with great
cheerfulness and confidence.