Fort Worth daily gazette. (Fort Worth, Tex.) 1882-1891, 1890-10-15
ROUND.UPS.
Interesting Facts Regarding the Sup
ply of Meat Cattle in Australia.
An Estimate OF How Long Il VIII be Until
the Demand Exceeds tbs sams-Low
Trlcss as Producing consumers.

At the instance of the chief inspectors of stock
in New South Wales and Queensland. the gov
eminent statistician, Mr.. Coughlan, has pre-
pared report on the meat supply Of Australia.
TIE aim of this report is to ascertain whether,
and when, the supply OF cattle and sheep
within the territory of Australia will become in
sufficient fos the food supply of the growing
population. AS the result OF snelaborate anal
ysls. it is shown that while the increase Of the
popu alton of Australia since 1851 has slightly
exceeded 3.9 per cent. per ahrnm, The rate OF
increase OF cattle is not so great. Over period
OF twenty-five years the increase was only
3.O0 per cent per annum, the numter
of cattle having increased from 3.S5S, tss
to SEA, 32I. OF course, the increase has
been arrested at different times by drought aud
epldemics At several periods there were very
serious losses. Between Isl an 1 1886 the num-
Der of cattle decreased from $50. is5 to 49,,
los. Within that period no fewer than +, .lU, 900
mead OF cattle are reported as having persisted
from the causes named. In 1852 the loss was no
less than ,n56, CO.. head. IN every year since
1879. except in 1857, which was a favorable
season for stock, there was a mortality ranging
from 2Ol 600 head IN 1873 to ,O56, 0O0 head in
1882. Out of the twenty-five Years ended in
1883. only five are credited as having oeen free
from loss. Obviously the figures ind cate con-
dltions which have little or no hope of escape
for disaster in the future. and this eie ment, of
course, makes the determination of the question
one OF uncertainty.
The average destruction of cattle by droughts
and epidem:cs in the last five wears was only
per cent, as against per cent. in the years
1864 to 1863, the first of the periods within the
comparison. Both these periods, however, en-
brace times of drought. II we take the whole
the loss roughly appro1imates 7.5 per cent.
on the mean number OF cattle. The drain
upon the herds or the slaughter yards in 1889
was III, o.. The estimate of cast is TO- %
per cent. being equal to 800 head. If the
grazing industry were pursued in view of send
ing stock to the market at the age when 1t would
rather than OF increasing the herds to stock up
new country, the cast available for the
ket would be ll.l7 per cent. The COWS being
kept longer than eight years, the proportion Is
reduced. Bat, taking the existing conditions,
the question is, when will present demand for
al, 40 cattle increasing at the rate of 3. 10 per
cent. per amin. overtlks = supply CT S33. $40
head, increasing at the rate OF per cent. per
annum? Mr.. Coghlan estimates period of lL&.
years as the time when, under existing condi-
tons, the present rate of consumption with the
growing population will overtake the supply.
Turning to the production of sheep, here is a
mu more hopeful outlook. From 1868 to 1883
the number increased from "a, SIH, Sl2 to 50 OPS.
4i2, and this notwithstanding that there was
loss by epdemics and droughts of IS, 63S, 900
sheep, equal to ,A9. 900 per annum. The loss
was equal to per cent per annum. In four
years there was increase exceeding - per
cent. per annum, indicating the possibilities of
growth in good seasons; but in FIVE years there
was an absolute decrease. Taxing the good
years with the bad, the average rate of increase
within tn. quarter OF q century was 4. ~ per
cen. Economic breeding wtuld require the
withdrawal for slaugh er of wethers at four
years and of ewes at seven years, giving the
cay Of the flccks at Is. per cent but in
reality large proportion OF the ewes are kept
breeding long possible, and in consequence
the east for the market is thought no. TO ex-
coed u per cent.
The consumption Of sheep in Australia in 1889
is given 5,637 300, while the cast OF
so, u, 600 at II per cent. is 8, SUB, 800, leaving
i. gt5. U0J available for export. The question is,
when will this surplus cease to be furnished for
nm de nn1r nfz9 oh
past twenty-five years there has been an in
crease of 4. IS per cent. per ennum in the growth
of flocks. and although that rate has been fully
maintainef during the past Ten years, Mr..
Coghlan is not disposed TO allow tn It a greater
increase thln per cent. per annum can b.
looked for in future; and doubtless when the
country is fully stocked the estimate will not be
too small, for expansion Will be restricted BY
the want of suitable pasturage. Nevertheless.
it is thought that it NAV be fairy hoped that
the hes oval OF increased care in the preserva-
tion of sheep in times OF drouth. with the still
larger areas of unoccupiea land, more particu-
la ly on the western hall OF Australia, Will per-
nit of the maintenance Tor some years longer OF
the rate of interest disclosed witrin the past de-
cade, which was secured. notwithstanding a loss
OF no less than ~, Al, 0u0 sheep. Accepting,
hox,ver, the more cautious estimate of
Mr.. Coghlan, OF a present increase OF sheep at
the rate OF only per cent. per annum, and to
which undoub iedly the rate will ultimately be
diminished, find that it will still be seventy
four years before population, increasing at the
of 3. 80 per cent. per anhum. overtakes TIE
production and requires all the sheep for i s
own use. 1t seems likely that there Will be
some reduction in the present very large use OF
meat by colonisls, amounting to 216 pounds per
head as against l20 per head in the United
states, l05 per head in the United Kingdom, and
much smaller quantities in other countries; and
the occurrence of this contingency. wouIl fur
Their conserve the SUI plies. The conclusion ar
rived at is that it will be many years before the
people n Australia need be in the least bit anx-
ious about the meet supply. Mr.. Coghlan
shows ha. we have an available exportabie an
nual surplus O. 40 o, 90 sheep, and that surplus
will probably be maintained for a good many
years to furnish food for the people of Europe.