The morning call., 1890-08-18
is THE cENsUs RELIABLE

A morning contemporary, which not I'M
frequently evolves its facts ont OF its inner
consciousness, and which would just now
be very much obliged to any one who could
tell it where it stands in politics, is dis
tressed over the result of the census. 1t
figures that carrying the same population
throughout the country as IS revealed by
the returns already in, the total population
will net be found to exceed 6o,7S0,00O. As
the official count already foots up 81 695, $50,
with 200 districts to hear from, our con-
temporary appears to have borrowed
trouble The total population may not
reach 81, GOO, COO, which sanguine folks looked
for, but the aggregates are pretty sure to
run over 10000 600, and that that figure is
below the mark is now being generally sus-
pected.
The vital statistics which are within reach
do not enable us to form as accurate esti-
mates of population as can be formed re-
garding the European States. We have no
tables showing the birth rate and death
rate in the country at large, and we cannot
therefore segregate the natural increase
from the increase from immigration. But
we have the returns from eleven censuses
and we have pretty reliable returns Of i'm
migration for seventy years. From these
the past increase of population can be
pretty closely figured and traced to its
sources. From 1910 to 1850 the annual in
crease varied from 2.75 per cent to per
cent. How much this was due to lmmigra-
ton may be calculated from the fact tnat
| in 1880 over Is per cent Of the population
were foreign born.
From 1860 to 1870, which included the
period of the war, the annual Increase, not
outstanding losses In the field, was 204
| per cent, say 100000 souls. In this decade
| 22S0,000 foreigners in round numbers landed
| in the country. From 1870 to 1880 the
annual increase was larger; 1t amounted TO
2.61 per cent per annum. In this decade
the foreign immigration amounted TO about
! 2.S0S, coo souls, the total increase being in
round numbers 1I,250,000. Given these
figures, what should the population be in
| 1890?
The latest corrected returns of immigra-
| ton for the decade are not at hand, but as
| the first four years of the period showed
arrivals of about 100000, it will probably
be within the mark TO reckon that the total
| arrivals for the ten years did not fall short
! of 100000. Add this to the aggregate
| population as per the census of 1856
| 49, 81, O0O-and we have total of 64.37l, 600.
| II the total population as shown by this
1edI ItESuo 1dIlS sIiUiI VI tbuL uEulf, liiCu
we shall have to infer that there has been
no natural increase at all, and that the
death rate has kept pace with the birth
rate.
But this is manifest absurdity. When,
in any country, the death rate exceeds the
birth rate, the population gradually dies
out and the country becomes depopulated.
immigration may stay the process, but it
cannot prevent It's accomplishment. When
ever more PEOPLE die than are born in any
country in succession of years that coun-
| try gradually becomes desert No one
will believe that the United States is
! passing through any such condition as this,
nor will it be expected that the contrary
should be proved. The truth is eelf-eyi-
| dent
If there were any need of adducing rea-
| sons or analogies they can be found in
comparison of the census returns of the
past with the returns of immigration. This
| little table tells the story: