Fort Worth daily gazette. (Fort Worth, Tex.) 1882-1891, 1890-11-12
TIL Cotton Outlook.

l
| Ellison s annual review of the cotton
crop situation and outlook is summarized
as follows: Twelve months ago we
stated that the new season opened with
the promise of good business every
where: and that in all of the great cot
Ion consuming centers we might look for
an active business and an increased rate
of consumption; but we can scarcely
speak so ontidently about the outlook
for the season which has Just opened
Business in Manchester is good and
there is the promise of full rate of con-
sumption, but it is doubtful if the ex-
pansion in lS90-9l will equal that of
lSS9-9O. Nor Is it likely that trade on
the continent will be so elastic in the
new season as in the old one. there
having been some over production of
goods in several of the large manufacture
ing centers. Nevertheless, we shall calcu.
late upon some increase in the consump-
ton of cotton in both England and the
con tinent, say in bales of 400 pounds
$4,000 for the one and 81 900 for the
other, against IS 800 and 81 500 respec-
lively last season; or q total of 4 $50 900
for Great Britain, and 4 1868, 900 for the
continent, against 8 $50 900 and 4,23S.-
900 respectively last season. The United
States. Canada and Mexico, we EXPECT.
will require 2 500 900 bales of ordinary
weight (466 pounds. against ZAP ,4O7
last season; or 1912 200 bales of 400
pounds, against ,S+5, 900 bales, making
grand total (for Europe and America)
OF ii 1886, 900 bales against IL ,O65 900
last season. We may here state that our
estimate for last season was IL ,0SS 900,
or only 23 900 over the quantity actually
consumed.
To provide for the estimated consump-
ton OF the world we calculate that
74O 900 bales East Indian will be wanted.
against ,69l 200 actually spun last sea-
son. The import may equal that of last
season, 1865, 900 bales, but we shall
assume that not more than ,74O 900 Will
be required. IL some disaster happens to
the crop and the import reaches only
900 900, there will be enough cotton to
provide ,740 900, es the season opens
with l53 900 more in the ports of Eur ope
than twelve months previously. The
best authorities in Egypt say that tn
crop of that country will reach 8, 500 900
ooutars, or 460, 200 bales of ordinary
weights; and as the season opens with
good stocks, 1t is not unlikely that this |
quantity will be used, as prices will be !
low enough to compete with the better |
grades OF American. The Brazilian |
supply is always mere guess
work. We shall calculate upon an i'm
port into Europe of 200 900 bales, against
1874 900 last season, but some Brazilian
houses say that this figure will be con-
exceeded. Smyrna will proba.
bly, supply 10000, against 80 900 last
year, and the West Indies, Peru, etc..
80 900, against $1,000. Assuming the
foregoing computations to be realized,
there will be wanted an American crop
of 7.4S4 900 to make up the total of
ii 1886 ZOO bales Of 400 pounds required
by European and American spinners.
The estimated increase in consumption is
about 2. 8 per cent, against an increase
OF 3.9 per cent. last season over lsSs-S9,
and one OF 3.6 per cent. in 1859 over
lSSI-SS. We give slightly smaller H.
crease for the new season because of the
complaints of over-production and
accumulated stocks III several i'm
portant places. OF course, with
low prices 1t 10 possible that more
cotton will be used and more cloth pro-
1uced; but at the current Estimates of
both the American and East Indian crops
are much larger than the above esti-
mated requirements, the supply avail
lble promises to be amply sufficient to
meet even an increase Of 4 ort5 per cent.
wanted. The quality of the American
'rop is not so good as the previous one,
,ut the effect Of this will not be felt
Until later in the season, by which time
more definite Information will be at
land touching the extent Of the crop.
1t the moment the most current ssti-
mates range from z 800, 900 to7 $50 200
'ales. against the estimated require
nents Of Z ,434 200 bales.