Waterbury evening Democrat., 1890-02-07
VISIBLE GRAIN SUPPLY
All the World Closely Watohea
Uncle Sans Food Products.
The Editor Of "BradstSeets" Explains How
tho More Important Statis'it", OF tho
Grain Trade Are ODtaincd-Pro-
duce Exchange Ola Fogyisn.
e. PyRIGHr 800.


upon tho grain trade. next to those OF
production, are those OF accumulated
stocks out of farmers hands.
This is not difficult to appreciate.
With an approximately accurate
knowledge Of tho yields OF wheat in the
United States and in other countries
which produce more wheat than they
consume, ono may estimate fairly tho
home consumption in each instance,
and With the aid of like data from the
leading whsat-imp porting nations. the
United Kingdom, France, Portugal, and
others, all that remains to determine
the probable import requirements or
the latter is a fair understanding OF
stocks of wheat on hand at the begin
ming of a cereal year-say August l.
When the probable wheat require
ments in countries which have 10 i'm
| port to supplement their own harvests
are arrived at approximately 1T becomes
| important to ascertain stocks on hand
| in countries which usually have wheat
| to export after which if this bs &C
complished-th long headed grain mer-
chant at New York or Chicago, for in
stance, may. with some degree of in
telligence, calculate the probable or
possible quantity OF wheat to be sent
from the United States during a year,
from one August to another.
Let us suppose case.
We will say that the United King
dom will have to import more wheat
than usual for the year ending with
| August l, 1890; this boing determined
| by o smaller yield OF wheat there in
| 1889 than in 1883 and by smaller stocks
on hand on January /, 1890, than year
| ago
Itmay also DO promised that Russia.
generally q heavy exporter of wheat,
| will have less than usu al to ship; that
| Australian shipments will not be
| available for some months to come, and
| that Californian exports are made at
| too groat distance from Europe to
| meet sudden requirements.
| The possibilities of India may be re-
garded as doubtful, as to quantity.
| Stocks of wheat throughout Europe
| have ali been depleted-and all OF
these suppositions are quite close to
| the facts sand by Inference the conclu-
| sion is reached that Atlantic port wheat
| shipments are to derive increased i'm
portance between this time and
| August 1.
Tho ability of the United States to
export wheat between August, 1889, and
August, 1890, determine as follows
| Domestic wheat crcp' of lSs9..... 100000 ooc
| Needed for food n -
Needed for seed at
n"n ne for 'i man e.. 's'oo''ooo
y. e, and arts. ,noo, 900 500 oNo 900
Avail lVbl for expor' 90 'i''' 1,N."o>.2o1
This is reached by presuming that
| the 35, 600, 900 bushels of wheat on hand
Tin and out of farmers hands) on
August /, 1889, provo sufficient to carry
us into the new cereal year seven
months hence. Out of these les. 900, 0OJ
| bushels we have exported about 80, OOO,
900 bushels, leaving, say, 20, 900. 900
bushels for export during six months
| to come.
Iingeing upon our calculated ability
| to export 10000, 900 bushels within
six months, comes tho available wheat
"in sight" in tho | nited States, east Of
| the Rocky Mountains; that is. in the
| United States and Canada, for our
| wheat exports to the Dominion annu-
ally have about equalled the lattcr's
| exports; for if the farmers hold back
| their wheat it cannot well be eXportc
except at higher prices, at figures
which will induce the growers to part
with it.
1t may thus be seen how important it
is to know what is tho votal visible
| supply of wheat" tributary to tho At
lantic ports.
Tho inventor Of the visible supply of
| wheat report is Mr. Elmer II. Walker,
for many years statiStician of the New
York Produce Exchange. Some twenty
years or so ago he began this work by
collating weekly for the Exchange at
New York totals of stocks of wheat at
points of accumulation where, at that
time, the bulk Of all stocks "out of
farmers hands" we're held, viz. Mil
waukee. Chicago, Peoria, Kansas City,
st. Louis, Chicago. Indianapolis, De
troit, Toledo, CINCINNATI, Buffalo,
Albany, Boston, Toronto, Montreal
Oswego, New York, Philadelphia, and
baltimore. Within few years Mime
apolis. Duluth and st. Paul were added
to the list, about which time the Chicago
Board of Trade began the compilation
each week of a visible supply report o
its own, claiming that the New York
statement was too slow in appearing
not then being given out until Thurs
days following the Saturdays for which
totals OF stocks on hand were compiled.
This rivalry proved fortunate
and in the race for prompt re
turns both reports began to appear
on Mondays, as they do to this
day.
The Importance of these official visible
supply reports was speedily recognized
abroad, and each week tho total o.
wheat, and of corn, oats. barley, ano
rye, are cabled 10 leading Europe ar
grain markets.
Five or six years ago called the at
tention of several me m bers of the New
York Produce Exchange to the made
quency of its weekly visible supply O.
wheat, showed them how it failed t,
explain the actual condition of stocks
If it were not, at times, actually mis-
leading.
Mr.. Walker, a good friend Of mine
asked: what would you propose as ;
substitute?"
Well" 1 replied "since you bega,
| this viaih1o Surplv report Stocl.s n