New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1889-02-23
WHEAT
RNMENT CROP EsTf.


THE QUESTION AS TO GOVERNMENT CROP EsTr-
MATEs-LATEsT EXPORT RETURNS.
TO me razor oJThe Tribune
Sir Once more the prevailing belief in the trade
is sharply mt issue with the official statistics
as to the yield of wheat. That is not the way the
dealers put it; their habitual neglect of the
| surplus brought over from previous years puts
| them, in a statistical point of view, many million
bushels out of the way. But it is not to be
denied that the ablest observers Of the wheat
situation in the Northwest and most Of the farmers
| themselves, have come TO believe that the supply
remaining is hardly adequate for the rest OF the
| crop year. The price at Chicago, higher than at
seaboard cities, means that If 1t means anything
| 1t is therefore becoming TO rcexamine estimates
in the light OF the latest official reports.
The final statement of foreign commerce to
January shows net exports Of wheat, including
-four, amounting to 52,s54,4so bushels in the last
six months Of 1885, against 73,095,17l In the
last six months of 1887. The preliminary report
for January shows exports equivalent to 6,2o7-
l "a bushels, against 7520,s6O last year. Tho
total since July / is 58,611,6s bushels against
81, 6,03i for the previous year. But from tebru-
airy to July last year exports were 37960,7sl
bushels, whereas the quantity hitherto estimated
/ this year, would be on the basis of the above
figures, 6S,6s6,349 bushels in excess OF the mini
mum stock.
In order to escape this conclusion 1t is necessary
either to question the estimated surplus from pre-
vious years. 5l,s5s,07O bushels, July l. 1888,
or the official estimate OF the yield in 1888. or
the current estimate Of consumption. There is
not much room for doubt as to the surplus
brought over for the visible supply alone was
about Ia, 000, 900 bushels more than July l. $50,
the point of greatest exhaustion Of supply: tho
stock on the Pacific Coast was greater by 10000
600 bushels; the difference in quantity OF Hour
on hand appears from imperfect statistics to have
been at least much more, and the state OF prices
and of known stocks in farmers hands renders 1t
difficult to believe that there was not also last
July difference of nearly or quite 10000
bushels in those stocks.
Next, as TO the Government estimate OF yield
in 1888, IL must perforce be accepted until some
body having q record of moro accurate informa-
ton in the past submits returns by States of
different tenor, and no such authority has yet
appeared.
Finally, as TO the consumption allowed for food
and use in manufacture, which is the fall average
for the past twenty years, any higher estimate
for the PAST year of unusually high prices does
uOb otcul JuobAhcu- IL 10 OlIeu Sdlu ludl, lLc
weight Of this crop, being below sixty pounds per
bushel, the consumption in bushels by weight
must be greater but the estimates for twenty
years have been Of measured bushels, averaging
considerably below sixty pounds. II the present
crop is in weight below that average, so the adj
vance of twenty cents or more in price since last
year would seem to justify expectation Of a con-
siderable decrease In consumption, first in cities
where the price Of bread has in fact been raised,
and second on farms where the higher price OF
wheat would lead 10 more economy in -four and
larger Of other grain.
The Pacific Coast has exported 25,S91,17S
bushels in seven months, against II, 3S6, 766 aso
year, and from February l to July / last year
exported only 900 bushels. Estimates OF
consumption there indicate that stocks must be
drawn very low indeed IL the Pacific Coast ex-
ports during the next five months as much as
l2,O00,O00 bushels. But even that quantity would
leave for export from tina Atlantic ports Sc, 7OO-
600 buhhels whereas last year there were eA- |
ported from Atlantic ports in the five months only
2s,200,000 bushels. IL exports do not double, |
and yet there is not found wheat enough to go |
round, che accuracy of the Government estimate |
OF yield may he successfully assaulted. w. NJ e.