Pittsburg dispatch. [volume] (Pittsburg [Pa.]) 1880-1923, 1889-12-22
OLD PROPS SCIENCE.
How Storms Are Located and Fore
told by the Signal Service.
WHY SOME PREDICTIONS FAIL.
The Influence Exerted by the Moon Upon
the Weather.
Why SOME PREDICTIONS FAIL.
A GLOOMY OUTLOOK FOR NEXT YEAR


to show as little advancement as the sciene
OF weather predictions. This, outside o
"Old Probabilities, who only predicts TO
the immediate "a hours-and even then
with all of his multitude of assistants
human, instrumental and electrical-he car
only make on an average of about 80 pc
cent of his predictions correct. They are al
subject to failure from local causes, such a
dense forests, high mills, large bodies o
water, long streams or continuous lakes, o.
the direction Of the wind, or, worse than al
the rest, the encounter ol one storm with an
other storm moving in a different direction
with far greater force. These things will in
evitably have their effect upon all weather
no difference from what direction it may b
advancing, and the ridicule which is gratuit
ously heaped on the signal Office by al
scoffers is done without full knowledge o.
the subject-the mere contempt of ignor
aDce. When prediction is made for anJ
locality it is not intended to be considered
| as infallible, but it means that such and
such weather will follow according to the
| indications on the weather map at so many
| stations throughout the United States at 4
unforeseeable counter influence gets in the
way. Those predictions are for certain very
large sections of country. It would be quite
absurd to expect that because rain was pre-.
| dicted in the Middle States that it would
rain IN every part of that section of the
| earth. II it don't, the local critics think
that because their district didn't get any OF
it there has been an entire failure every
where Of the promised rain.
Change of weather implies q change of
condition of cloud and electricity, Of rain
and wind, of heat and moisture. Mankind
from the earliest ages has watched for signs
and prognostics in the heavens that would
enable them to gauge the elements, and
thereby help or forward agricultural, mer-
camille, marine and other interests. But
predictions without scientific data were
rather unreliable if they were based on the
averages of previous years, as was mostly
done.
MODERN METEOROLOGICAL METHODS.
Nowadays storms are detected and their
magnitude ascertained by telegraph. AWAY
in the West is suddenly developed falling
barometer at one certain spot Soon after
ward come kilograms that orher neighboring
localities feel it, and it soon spreads itself
over a vast area. As it comes eastward
northeast to southeast winds swell up rapid
ly and increase in force hourly Every
man can then feel in his own system
that the powers of the air are in
violent commotion. If he will stand
with his back to the wind he
will have the lowest barometer to
his left hand. Storms of this kind can be
safely predicted for days ahead.
Storms are circular and travel mostly in
northeasterly direction, with velocity cor
responding to the vastness of their area and
the lowness of the barometer If winds
have been easterly for some time during the
tall, and southwest winds commence early
in December, season of mild weather en-
sues until about Christmas, with FREQUENT
violent storms and much rainy weather. If
in winter northeast winds succeed long
southwest winds, which we are having now,
then a continuance of cold, frosty weather
may be looked for during January.
"Buchan's Handy Book of MeteoroIogy"
says: 81 have examined the weather of
Scotland for a number of years, and have
shown that the following Interruptions occur
from year to year with very rare exceptions:
Six cold dperiods-February to 10, April IL to
a. Nay to a. June % to July 4, August to II,
November 8 to IL.
Three warm periods-July II to Is, August IL
to Is, December to 9.
If those figures are approximately correct
for Scotland they are correct for this latitude
also. These figures are, however, based on
averages, and cannot, of course, be de-
pended upon entirely, as we know tEat the
weather has changed vastly in late years
from what it was between 1850 and 1860.
Then we had great snow storms every win
ter and continuous sleighIng and Shedding
and skating from fall until spring. The
turnpikes were often hidden under great
drifts of snow for weeks, while
the roadways were often on or over the
fences. That has been changed. For sew
eral years all of our great storms commenced
away up in Manitoba or toward Alaska.
which region became known by the name of
'sHome of the Blizzard But this winter
has changed the cyclonic direction, and the
great storm center now appears to be in New |
Mexico and Texas, and the country along |
the Southern tier Of States on the Gulf is |
now the focus of the wrath of the Storm |
King, and people who never saw a skate or a |
sled are now supplied with snow and freezing |
weather, while this Northern country, which |
has hitherto been the home of Jack Frost |
and his brother the Snow Storm, is reveling
DR. sweltering In the balmy weather which |
should belong to the latitude Of the Gulf /
,oast.
sothermal lines cannot be given or approxi-
mated unless the moon exerts an influence
IN the tides of the air as she does with the
,cean, and if she does it with water why
lot with the air? Many great minds claim
hat the moon has nothing 70 do with it,
tut far greater minds have thought differ
ntly. The changes of the phases of the
noon, as taken at Greenwich for a number
f years, would seem to contradict (if they
7ere carefully taken), scientific opinions as
0 their influence on the weather. It is
laimed that the prognostications were false
nee more than they were true.
THE MOON AND THE WEATHER.
Many years ago Herschel made a weather
able, as result of many years actual OBJ
srvation, constructed on a due considera-
ion of the attraction of the sun and moon
d their several positions respecting the
arth, which he claimed would show what
ind of weather would most probably follow
be entrance of the moon into any of its
uarters, s'and that SO near the truth as to
eldom or never be found to fall" Sir |
William HerschePs opinions and positive
elief, after many years experience and OBJ
srvation, should certainly stand as high as
ne experience Of latter day experimental
its who have not had half the experience or
.me he had.
In January last table was made from
is data, after comparisons with the exact
me of the changes of the moons phases,
nd the predictions were for a wet season
ntil the 18th of December. There was here
nd there phase marked fair, but it was
le exception. Nobody will deny that this
ear, almost past, has been an unusually
ct, cold and damp year. Taking the
lases for the year 1890 on the same basis,
ere appears to be another season Of rainy,
Iowery weather approaching, as the follow
& table will show:
December 2S to February 4. fair and frosty.
to March 13 rain or snow. ]
March Ii to March 8 fair and frosty,
March q to April 26 rainy and cold.
April 26 to May II, fair. ]
May IL 20 May 8. frequent showers.
lForr Trna foir / ?