The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1889-12-01
AMERICAS GRAIN RIVALS
uRRApSTREET's" FOREsHADoWs
OUR SUPREMACY DOWNFALL.

We Cannot Compete With the Cheap
Land, Labor and Transportation of
Russia, India and the Argentine
Republic-Prices "a Per Cent. Lower
Than in 1888-Little announcement
20 American Farmers-Germany In
vestigating the Grain Problem.
(Copyr1ght)
NEW YORK, Nov. 30.-There is little
else if anything, in which we are volun-
tariIy or involuntarily more interested than
in the price of bread.
Hence that of wheat.
sis there anything new in relation to
wheat prices"
"There IS. indeed; or is going to be. 1t
is only few years since the United. States
dominated the wheat markets of the world,
in 1879, 1880. 1881 and 1882. By that time
India and Russia began to COM
pete with us-the ''pauper" wheat
growers of Southeastern Europe and
Southern Asia, if you please. This
threw the price-lever into the hands Of the
English, the chief purchasers of imported
wheat, enabling them to sit still while
India, Russia and the United States cut
each others Threats by undertaking each
other. Since then, Australia, Chilli and
latterly Argentine Republic have entered
the contest as wheat producers in excess of
their homo requirements. and the question
of our future as a competitor in the worlds
markets for the sale of wheat, assumes very
prominent proportions.
At this time the situation in the domestic
wheat markets is not particularly satsfac-
~ awurts N0Iar -.
stitutional bulls"-those members of the
trade who are firm believers in the intrinsic
worth of the cereal, who are always under
the market" to hold it up, who carry the
grain, and in this way perform the economic,
function of holding one seasons surplus to
meet the wants produced by a lean harvest.
The price of wheat to-day is, or has been,
about "a percent. less than it was one year
ago, although the domestic crop is only IS
per cent. larger than in 1888, with reported
smaller supplies available for export in Rus
STA and India. This is the more striking
when it is recalled that our reserve stocks
at the close of the last cereal year, July l,
1889, or, on Aug. l. following, ran down as
low as 100000 bushels, 'visible
and invisible'-that is, stocks in sight
at various points of accumula-
ton and stocks in farmers hands and else
where, not reported. There are some
statisticians who place the reserves of
Aug, l, 1889, at even a smaller, total than
have given. This means that while our
exports of wheat for the twelve months
ended July l, aggregated Including four
about 30, 000, 600 bushels of wheat--less than
for a number Of years before, we were
obliged to draw upon farmers bins and
other reserves from Is, 100000 to 10000, 900
bushels in order to meet home and foreign
requirements.
Our crops of wheat last year, Ais. 600, 600,
was considerably under an average, too.
This year with, probably, 470,000,000 or
$50, 000.0 900 measured bushels of wheat, quite
an average harvest, the seasons require
ments will include an item to cover the
100000 excessive depletion of the preced-
ing twelve months. On top of this came
the reports of lighter export supplies in
India aud Russia-yet prices have ranged
20 to "a per cent. below those of year ago.
The great wheat experts have thus
far been at fault in their predic-
tons or expressions as to the probable
course of prices. In England, Besrbohm,
leading authority. has not been committal,
though manifestly expecting higher quota
TONS In DoTnbuSch'S Circular, widely
known in the grain trade, the letters signed
by II. Kaius-Jackson, have pronounced
fatty in favor of the belief that the winter
must bring higher prices. William 3.
Bear of London, once editor of the ,Md9k
Lane Cypress, has inclined to like views,
particularly as Germany and France expect
to have to buy some wheat this year from
abroad.
AT home there have been honest differ
enceS of opinions among good judges for
more or less plausible reasons, only one of
which calls for special reference. to wit,
that there will be more than 10000, 900
bushels OF wheat for export for the year
ending July l, 1890.
The veriest boy in the grain trade should
know this to be worse than absurd. Let me
prove it to you.
We will presume that the domestic grain
crops for 1889 amount to 4S0, 90, 900 bushels
probably larger-and that the quantity of
" Mneat carried over last summer was about
oo,oVO,UOO from the preceding crop. That
Total, certainly a liberal one, is based on
personal investigation. This would indicate
total supply with which TO begin the cur
rent crop year amounting to about 515 ,000,-
VoO bushels. The closest current estimates
Tor wheat required for food at home
average about 290.000,00O bushels, the
quantity to be required for seed and for
use use IN manufactures, etc., about 67,000,-
WV bushels, or for total home require
menus me US S57, 900 600 bushels, leaving about
!oo,VVO,000 bushels to export and carry over
!H1o the new crop year, July /, 1890. Now,
u we allow only $4,000 900 bushels to filtup
IaSV summers depleted reserves and to
larry over into the season of 1890-9l, there
VIII remain available Tor export from July
last last to June 80, 1890, about los, 100000
bushels bushels. Of course, if we can ger along
EMltnout carrying over" all of 10000, 600
tSushels, we increase the quantity available.
t1r export by just that much, SO that at
Sue outside one may place such total, per-
npaps, at 10000 or 120, 900, 900 bushels.
i puC snai! we need that much2 1t does not
-0GK as II we shOuld-that is, not now.
ror nearly five months of the current
SSereai year, July to the close of Novern-
LEI, our exports of wheat land of -four as
nn 1eap nave amounted to more than AZ, 000,-
Ioo bushels, as compared with 47,000,000
SuS ne In corresponding portion of 1888.
81 ns EUROPE took the bulk of her wheat pur-
;1a S from us in the first five rather than
~ Ine last seven months of the previous
fbe o;'al year (our total exports that year
s icing only 100000 bushels it will be
So Ecu tnat, unless an unusual demand
tTr our wheat shows itself in May and
Sune, lo90, the prospect for 1SS9-'90 is for
S9HI lailer foreign shipments than last year.
,G ur exports are IL per cent. less than from
S - 81 to the end Of November, 1885, and
she, uney maintain like proportions until next
s sui, ner, the total cereal years shipment