The Dickinson press. (Dickinson, Stark County, D.T. [i.e. N.D.]) 1883-1927, 1889-10-05
PREPARING WEATHER REPORTS.
How "Old Prob" Makes His Forecasts OF
Atmospheric Changes

went up to tho signal office the other
day to ask Gen. A, w. Greedy how he
and his fellow conspirators regulated the
weather of which this season has been
so prolific. found tho lucky and
plucky Artic explorer at his desk, robed
in a full suit of white flannel over n
checked flannel shirt;a dream of COM
fort and a very delightful antithesis to
the young lieutenant who, six years ago
was waiting for death at Camp Sabine.
"What is the percentage of right csti-
mates of this bureau!"
ut averages something over so per
cent You would not think so to read
the papers. But the fact is, when prob
abilities prove to be correct newspapers
do not notice it; they only have some
thing to say when we miss fire a New
England daily paper said last Wedncs.
day that our estimates for that section
hadn't been right in a week sent
the statement to my expert, whose bllsi-
ness Is vcriication, and he went over the
facts and figures. and found that 81 per
cent of the predictions of the bureau
for tho period and section had been cor.
rect"
GLOW do you make your estimate for
tomorrow weather, general"
II could give you Il statement of it,
but had better refer you to Capt Dun
woody, the officer who has had prcdic-
tions in charge for many years. lIc is
at this moment making up his weather
| sheet for tomorrow.
Gen. Greedy kindly walked with mo
out of his handsome room into the low
annex adjoining, whcro Capt. II. III. c.
Dunwoody, of the Fourth artillery,
makes his working headquarters, and
there was presented to him-a soldier
ly built officer, with Il military bearing
and alert face, his short hair turning
gray as ho talks about the weather.
"llere they arc" ho said touching
with his hand Il bushcl of mussed up
telegraph dispatches, "thc data on which
erivcd ut O'Clock this morning. Wash
ingt"a time, from our $50 stations in al.
parts of the country. These all reached
us within thirty minutes this morning.
Similar dispatches como three times a
day"
''rhcy tell you," vcntrired, "what
the weather has been and is. What the
people want to know is how you guess
what the weather is going to be. Or
perhaps | should not uso tho word
guess"
"Ccrtainly you should" answered
Capt. Dunwoody. "'Gllcss' is Il good
word. Much of our prediction is ncccs-
sarily conjccture-tliat is, it is an at
tempt to solve Il problem when some of
the important clements are missing.
These dispatches tell us five important
things about tho prevailing atmospheric
conditions in $50 places: 1, tho measure
OF the barometer; 9, tho thermometer;
3, the force and direction of the wind;
4, the character of the clouds; ., muis-
ture, or hy'romctic conditions Here
we have the weight of the atmospheric
the heat, tho wind, the clouds, the rain
in 100 places-an important basis for
a judgment, When VIC get these dis
patches we take five blank maps of the
United States and Canada and outline
the five conditions-hcat, rainfall, etc,
so that the state of tho Union, So to
speak, becomes pictorial. Now we have
something for any analytical mind to
work on-tllc weather in every terri
tory. Here are tho maps for today
Isothcrms are drawn through all the
places of equal temperature; isobars over
all points of like baromctric pressure
and so on.
"You sec there is u circle marked
frost in tho cranberry region of upper
Wisconsin. The fact that frost is thcro
today comes to us by telegraph. But l
predicted it yesterday morning aud sent
warning to the cranberry region to
look out suppose some of them did.
The day before yesterday frost WAS re-
ported in Pclnbina, northern Minnesota.
High areas generally move cast to south
cast and L thought it safcto predict that
this cold wave would go to tho cram
berry region. 1t did and it reached
there in just twcntyfour hours, as an
ticipatcd. The trouble is That not one
half of the farmers got the warning in
time. Some years since sent u dispatch
to Madison, Wis, warning them that
there would BIC frost the second day ur-
ter. The editor who handled it stuck it
in Il drawer and there it slept. | after
ward heard Gen. Rush, now commission
cr of agriculture, say to the Ms, onaln
state grange that if an organization had
existed to distribute that prediction ii
would have saved Sl00,0OD To the farm,
crs of the state. The great need oi the
service to-day is distribution Emphasize
that, please. Some provision should be
made by which the important probnbili-
ties can speedily get to tho farmers for
whose protection they arc chiefly use
full"
GLOW long are your predictions"
"Twcntyfollr houl :; sometimes thirty
six. Occasionally, when Indications are
very clear, fortycight. We shall extend
the time Il little next year. Weather
remains more settled in winter and fore
casts are easier
'From what docs your 90 per cent. Of
failures result
"From u lack of knowledge ON our
part; from our ignorance OF prevailing
conditions. If we knew more we could
guess better. r.'-Washington Cor. phiu-
ucllhil j llIlCS.
| Strange Disturbance of Nature.
Four miles southeast Of Nil!anow, Ga.
on the west s!opcof johns Mountain. on
lot 2l1, owned b:' William Roper, oc-
CURED over two nonths ago Il strange
disturbance Of nature. IL w;ls confined
to a strip Of land running east and wcs,
and being $50 yards in length and he.
tween 81 and 50 yards in width. O:l
that limited area the ground SHOW, tic
mark Of some mighty couvulaion
| Stumps were forced asundcr rocks were
split and huge roots torn in twain lis
sures run in every direction, Accom-
panying the disturbance WAS an evident
nplcaval. AS it passed, at the east end
The ground settled back below the origi-
nal level. while at the west end it was
.sft raised. Atlanta Constitution.
Gcorgia's Fruit Distillcries.
The number of applicants for fruit dis