Pittsburg dispatch. [volume] (Pittsburg [Pa.]) 1880-1923, 1889-05-26
ONE CENTURY AHEAD.
The Population of the United States
a Hundred Years Hence.
SOME BIG FIGURES CALLED DOWN.
Two Hundred and Fifty Million Will be an
Ample Estimate.
A DECREASE In THE RATE OF GROWTH
WRITTEN FOR THE DISPATCH.


In recent publication the Hon. William
e. Gladstone quotes the eminent statistician,
Barham Zincke, as authority for the state
ment that in one century hence the popula-
tion Of the United States will be 800, ,000,-
900. This is palpably absurd. Eight hun
dred millions is two-thirds of all the inhab-
itants upon the face of the globe at present.
By what process of reasoning, or fiom what
data Mr.. Zincke makes his calculations, or
draws his inferences, we do not know.
DR.. Jedidiah Morse, in his American
Geography" in 1876, assuming the popula-
tion of the United States at that time to be
5000 1000, calculated that in 1890 the popu-
lation would be 100000, 900. We see how
wofully he missed it. We are now within
year of the time for taking the tenth
census, and the best authorities anticipate a
return of about 60, 900, ,00O-much less than
one-half of the population predicted by DIR.
Morse. A hundred years is not q great
while. There are men living who have
lived 100 years
1t is preposterous to suppose that within
the probable lifetime of children now liv-
ing, the population of this country will run
population 1873 times as great as the pres
ent. The population in 1890 was nearly
100000.
SOME BIG FIGURES.
Our present population, it is true. is a
little more than 131S times what it was in
1890, but by parity of reasoning the popu-
lation in 209O would be 1871 times 800, ,OOO, 900,
which would give US more than 10, 500, ,OOO,-
900 of people-more, perhaps, than have
lived on the face of the globe in the last
1000 years. We say we do not know by
what process of reasoning or calculation
Mr.. Zincke has reached his conclusion. but
anybody can see the utter absurdity of it.
What are the facts Of the growth of our
population9
In 1900 the total was 6,Sl0,52O.
In 1910 the total was S6l7, 6S9, gain per cent 36
In 1920 the total was IL 405 47S gain per cent 81
In 1880 the total was 10 1874 662 gain per cent 49,
In S4O the total was ~ ~ a 9aS lOi gain per GENITAL
In 1850 the total was 35625. .5l4 gain per cent 49,
In 1870 the total was 49, 436 O52 gain per cent %
In 1850 the total was 80 l52 1885, gain per cent IT,
The average increase for the period from
1860 to 1880, was II per cent; call it 20 per
cent; at the same rate of increase, and we
have no reason to believe that it will ever
be greater than this, the population in 1890 !
will be 60, 1873, 439; in 1900 it will be r.
220, 126; and in 1890 it will be 372, ,699, ,981 |
souls
AN END SOMEWHERE.
That is assuming this rate of increase to
go on continuously; but this it will not do.
Nature regulates itself. The speed of a To- |
comotive has been increased from s or 10 |
miles an hour to go or even 100 miles an
hour; but this rate of speed cannot be ac-
celerated indefinitely. The resistance of the
air, the friction of the parts, and even the
strength of the materials, have established
limits beyond which 1T is not possible for a
locomotive to go.
We may believe that no locomotive will
ever travel $50 miles an hour. A tree grows
% certain size in 100 years; in 500 years it
ioes not grow five times as large. After
certain time, if it grows at all, its growth is
,ut little. A nation attains a certain
,rowth, after which it does not seem to in
,rease at the same rate. The whole history
If the world shows this to have been the
act in the past, and it will prove to be the
'ase in the future
We see the same thing already develop
ng itself in our own history, in the falling
IT from an average rate of increase of SO per
Civ III OAO AIS1 W cars VI Tue century 10 10
'er cent for the next decade, and to only 16
yer cent for the period from 1870 to 1880.
WHAT WILL PREVENT IT.
Various influences will operate to prevent
he future rapid growth of our population.
We may mention the restriction of the pres
mt indiscriminate immigration from Eu-
ope. This is measure that sooner or later
7ill be forced upon the United States in
elf-defense. We see the tendency already
q the restriction of Chinese immigration.
he final absorption Of the public lands, an
vent not far in the future. and the compe-
ition for the means of livelihood, will tend
D put veto to the overproduction of the
uman species in our country.
China, with territory larger than the
United States, favorable soil and climate,
civilization and Government dating from
emote antiquity, in period of 5000 years
as acquired a population of less than one
alf that predicted for US by Mr.. Zincke,
My century hence. The obscurity of
1ch a prediction rises into the grotesaue.
We think it large allowance to say that I
e shall have $50, ,0O0 900 of population in {
,e year 1890. T. J. CHAPMAN. ,