New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1889-10-01
WHEAT GUESSES AND FACTS.

Another of those crazy climates of the worlds
consumption aud deficiency of wheat, which serve
to remind folks that figures in the hands Of some
men. will lie outrageously, has appeared and is
going the rounds. Perhaps a few cold facts
about the matter may be timely, and helpful TO
those who have not the means Of correcting pub
lished statistical statements for themselves.
Nobody knows as yet within 2O,O0O,000 or
30, 900, 600 bushels what the wheat yield of this
country has been in 1889, and nobody knows
within many times that quantity what the yield
Of the world has been. Neither are there trust
worthy statistics of stocks brought over from
last year in other countries; authorities dner
many million bushels about the stock of Russia
alone. Whoever pleases can make up a state
ment showing a great surplus in the world, by
taking one set Of estimates Of yield and stocks,
and another showing a great deficit, by taking
another set of estimates Of equal value.
But actual movements Of grain give evidence
which cannot we'll be disputed or twisted. Brit
ish imports of wheat in July and August were
900, 600 cwts. smaller this year than last, with
import, of -four about the same. That indicates
no recognized prospect Of want in the country
having need to import more wheat than any
other The exports from the United States TO
all countries from all ports for July, from all
chief Atlantic ports for three weeks of September
have been 223OO, 900 bushels wheat, -four in
cluded. AGAINST %, 500, coo for the same times
and places last year decrease of 100000
bushels in the quantity demanded from the
country which exports more wheat than any
other does not indicate any apprehension OF
scarcity abroad The foreign price tells the same
story. British wheat averaged for the second
week in September 3Os ID, against 3Ss Id. Tor
the same week last year. fall of more tmh
20 per cent in price does not fOreshadow world
wide famine.
No one knows how large a stock of wheat
Russia has carried over from last year, or how
large the new crop is, and contradictory state
mcnts on both points are wide apart But the
cold facts are that Russia exported in August
nearly 5000 900 cwts. to Great Britain, against
about 1000, 900 cwts. in the same month last
year. and an increase OF one-half in exports does
not indicate much scarcity in Russia. The exports
for eight months ending with August wer lab -
653 cwts to Great Britain, against only 1,546,O34
for the previous year. and no such freedom OF
shipments at present low prices would be likely
to occur if Russian supplies were actually scanty
This country does not know how much wheat
is has raised. because the Agricultural Department
has not yet reported its estimate of winter whtat
acreage. and its careful estimates of condition
applied 10 an unknown acreage yield an unknown
result The fact that the estimates are nov
made public, as is usual. indicates that census
investigations are expected to lead to SOM re
vision of figures In States where railroads have
been built at the rate OF several thousand miles
a wear. and population has grown most rapidly
increase of acreage is to be expected. But the
DEPARTMENTS statement Of condition and probable
Weld. if applied TO no greater acreage than its t.
ports have already indicated as sown for this year.
would make the crop large enough, with last
years stock brought over, 10 supply all home
wants and many million bushels more for export
than were exported last year As yet, the figures
do not show any increase in the demand for
export and the prospect of bread famine IS
remote.