The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1889-11-19
COTTON.
ISAAC BECKETT.

Supply and Consumption - Current
Estimates Possibly Misleading.
The English authority, Mr.. Ellison. est.
mates the total requirements of Europe and
the United States for 1Ss9-'9O as about 44O.-
900 bales, of $50 pounds average weight over
the preceding year. As this amount lust
about covers the popular estimate of the
Increase in this years crop, the opinion is
frequently expressed ana widely circulated
IN the newspapers, and otherwise that the
cotton market is statistically in a strong
position, and that prospects favor higher
prices later on.
Taking the above figures as correctso far
as they go, let US see If they furnish any
reasonable grounds for inducing the south
ern planter to believe that he will get a
better price by holding back his cotton, an
article OF faith he is usually only too willing
TO adopt, and generally to his sorrow.
A moderate estimate of the increased
supply from India aud Egypt could scarcely
be less than $4,000 bales. averaging 400
POUNDS. This would leave SOC, 900 bales, re-
duclng TO our average weight say $50, 900
bales, TO be supplied by our Increased crop
Guesses OF our present crop seem to aver
age between 7,300,000 and 100000; it is
quite superhuous to point out how impos-
sible II Is at this season to estimate the
actual result with anything like certainty.
Experience has shown that the leading au-
thoritles without exceptiou) have in rec snt
years missed the mark by amounts some
times approximating a million bales. In
fact, nothing else can be expected, for on a
crop OF say 100000 bales an error of only z
per cent. would make difference of about
half million bales. Therefore, the writer
VIII not assume any definite figure at all for
the present crop, but will only adopt the
view generally held, that it will exceed all
previous years, how much must be decided
later
The matter concerning which we should
mainly direct our attention instead, is
whether Mr.. Ellison'5 estimated Increase in
consumption will or viii not require
10000 bales more from us than last year
that Is, crop of, say 10000 bales. In
lis calculations he seems to have made no
allowance for a very important considera-
ton, that Is the difference in quality be-
tween this crop and the last. Handlers of
COTTON, men RrlZzled in the business, say the
last crop was the poorest they ever saw: the
loss by waste was very great. On the
other hand, this crop is of excellent quality,
| and II is estimated that an average 100 bales
OF this crop will 20 as far as los of the last.
lhis Is not by any means merely an mag
mary difference; 1t is as real as a cor
responding increase In bales, and means the
equivalent If about $4,000 bales OF cotton.
This being the case, the world will have
enough cotton, with even a smaller increase
from IudIa and Egypt than estimated
above, to supply the estimated Increased
requirements, even If our crop is no larger
than last year. Almost everybody con.
cedes it will be larger; there is no sort OF
assurance that it will not be as much as 10
per cent. more. 1t is folly to speak OF
estimating such a yield within less than s
per cent at this time of the year
| Taking these considerations in view, we
can see no sufficient reason for holding
back cotton in expectation of future higher
! prices. They are very doubtful, TO say the
least, and present prices are nigh enough
to leave no just cause for complaint.
DEMoCRITUs.