The true northerner. [volume] (Paw Paw, Mich.) 1855-1920, 1889-03-13
ELECTORAL GAINS AND LOSSES.


The admission of four new States into
the Union adds not only four stars to the
flag but thirteen members to the Electoral
College. The old calculations of politi-
clans are disarranged. The doubtful
Sites" on which so much hinged, and on
which such effogts were concentrated, have
lost their value. IL Is no longer left for
the three neighboring commemorative of
Connecticut, New York aud New Jersey to
decide Presidential battle. We can
cipher out the result without them.
Had the two Dakotas, Montana, and
Washington been States last fall, and had
they been enabled to cast their thirteen
votes for Harrison, he would have beaten
Cleveland even though New York had
voted for her own son, for he would have
had 2l0 votes to 2O4 for Cleveland. This
Is not much of majority, but il is enough.
Therefore, If the contest of 1892 were to
be fought out on the basis of the appor-
tionment made under the census of 1850,
We need have no fears of the outcome
] he three Eastern doubtful States"
would cease to be of special value, and
for the Western one-Indiana-we may
count with confidence that il will hence
forth be safely Republican. That is the
drift of feeling there now. Each election
shows Republican gains, and it is the
party in power, ordinarily, and not the
one oat of power, which makes recruits.
1t is true that gerrymander. unparalleled
In political history, has given the Demo-
Gratis the control of the Legislature of the
State, but the violent and arbitrary meth
dds they are resorting to to maintain that
stolen ascendency will lose rather than
win them voters.
But the next election will be held under
the apportionment based OIL the census Of
1890. The enumeration of 1870 came into
play for the election, of 1872, and that of
1890 will be acted on as promptly. So as
between North and South the next Presi-
Dental election will find the former
stronger by the thirteen electoral votes
from the four new States, and also by
what it may gain by reason Of its greater
proportional increase in population in the
preceding decade. 1t has been asserted
by some Democrats, North and South,
that the strength of the Southern
States in the House of Representatives
would be proportionately greater under
the coming apportionment than under the
present one. There is, however, no evil
dence of this. There are some OF the old
slave holding States which have, doubt
and Missouri being at the head of the
list. But their growth, so far as it was
not natural increase, was at the expense
of the other Southern States. They have
drained Virginia, the Carolinas, Georgia,
and Alabama. The North has had not
only its own natural increase but the
teeming myIiads of Europe. All the for
eign immigration was kept by the North
The negro, even though now freed, kept
it from going south of the Ohio.
That which has led the Southern people
into false calculations has been their i'm
mense percentage of gain over 1870 as
| shown by the last census That was more
apparent than real. 1t was due to the
shocking imperfectious of the 1870 census
in the Gulf States. Had it been taken as
carefully as the following one, only nat
ural normal rate of gain would have been
shown. The South will not gain over 30
per cent. on the figures of 1880, and the
North Will gain more than that. III
then the ratio of representation be
raised 80 per cent, from l50, 600 to
200, 900, it follows that the South will
have a slight loss in Congressman. II
will gain i've in Texas and Missouri, and
lose ten in the other ex-slaye States. This
will cut il down from III members it now
has 10 ll6. The North VII gain tho five
the South loses, and will have 2U9 instead
of the 204 it now has. or with the five
from the new States PA. Some Northern
States will lose in members. Some will
barely hold their own. Others, where the
percentage of increase OF population is
over 33 per cent, will gain. The Eastern
seaboard will lose and the valley OF the
! Mississippi and Missouri will gain.
Therefore the Republican party can look
forward with confidence TO the battle of
| 1892 1t is sure of thirteen votes which
it did not have in 1888. The Southern
States, which it cannot or is not allowed
to carry, lose five votes. If none of these
were to go to New York, Connecticut, OF
New Jersey, then the party would be the
| gamer of ten votes. The probabilities
are however, that that group of States
will not gain more th,n one Of the FIVE
in which event the Republican nominee
of 1892 will have an advantage of twenty
one votes over Harrison last year. Che
cdOo Tribune.