Fort Worth daily gazette. (Fort Worth, Tex.) 1882-1891, 1889-07-19
WARM SUMMERS.
An inquiry as to whsther They Really Follow
Warm Winters.
Science.

Warm Winters.
Science.
Almost every newspaper of Bosten has
recently had something to say about
what the weather is to be during the
coming summer; and it seems to be an
almost unanimous conclusion that the
following summer is to be warm because
the winter and spring have been warm !,
or because last summer was cool. This
has led Mr. H. II Clayton to exam
inc the temperature observations
made in Milton during the last
forty years by Mr.. Charles Brock
These observations have been made twice
daily from the same thermometer, hang
ing IN the same place since the beginning
of the observations in January 1S49
During the forty years nineteen winters
have been warmer than the average, and
eight of the following summers have
been warmer than the average. There
have been eleven cases in which both the
winter and spring have been warmer
than the average, and following
these there have been FIVE
summers warmer than the average.
There have been six decidedly warm win
tiers; that is, winters whose mean tenn
perature was three degrees or more above
the average; and four of the following
summers have been warmer than the
leverage. 1t is seen, then, that only
about half of the warm winters were fol-
lowed by warm summers; or, in other
words, cool summers have followed warm
winters as often as the reverse The
number of times warm summers have
followed cool summers is nine, while the
number of times cool summers have fol-
lowed cool summers is twelve.
In the above what has been called a
warm winter is one in which the mean
temperature of the three winter months
December, Janurry and February
has been higher than the average of
forty years, and what has been called q
cool summer is one in which the mean
temperature of the three months of
June, July and August has been lower
than the average of forty years, etc :.
This, however, is evidently not the
definition adopted by people generally in
deciding whether winter or summer
is colder or warmer than usual, for q
decided departure Of the temperature of
single month in any direction may
determine the impression people retain of
the entire season. Thus it will surprise
most people to learn that the mean tenn
perature of last summer was slightly
higher than the average of the last forty
years. Both June and August were
warmer than usual, and only July was
very cool. It will probably be a still
greater surprise TO learn that the winter
of 1SS7-88, which was generally thought
to be q cold winter, was really
slightly warmer than usual. December
and February were both warmer than
usual, and January alone was very cold.
The people s opinion of season seems
to be largely moulded by the special
character of what is usually the most ex-
treme m onth of the season. If in winter
January happens to be exceptionally
warm or cold, the winter is decided to be
of the same character; or if July happens
to be decidedly warm or cool the summer
is thus characterized. 1t seemed, then,
worth while to ascertain from Mr.. Brock s
record how many warm Julys fol-
lowed decidedly warm Januarys. There
wereseight Januarys during the forty
years whose average temperature was
above 80 deg and following these were
five Julys warmer than the average of
forty years, which initiates but slight
tend eney for warm Julys to follow warm
Januarys, since the law of chance would
indicate that four warm Julys ought to
follow eight warm Januarys,. The num-
Der OF times warm Julys have followed
cool Julys is twelve, and the number of
times cool Julys have followed cool Julys
is eight.
Another method frequently used in
predicting the weather of coming sea-
son Is based on the conclusion that dur
ing every year the average conditions re-
41,o Il
of the year IS very warm the latter part
must be cool. This assumption, how
ever, appears to be entirely unsupported
MIR Brock 8 observations show that the
mean temperature of one year may differ
as much as five degrees from another
Eleven months of 1877 were observed to.
be warmer than usual, and nearly az
great departures in the opposite directien
were found in other years. &
All of these facts indicate that no con-
clusion of any value greater than could
be gained by mere guessing can be formed
in regard to the character of cominG
season, merely by knowing the charactetf
of the past season, until some law con-
Meeting these are worked out. This has,
been demonstrated over and over agaTE
in different parts of the world; but
since, of course, people generally
cannot keep posted in meteor
illogical literature, there will probably
continue to appear such forecasts of
coming seasons, based on apparent scien-
tito conclusions Mr. Clayton feels sure
there is a law of recurrence of ineteoro-
logical phenomena besides the daily and
annual periods, and also that it is not of
the character usually supposed and dis
cussed above. &M
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