New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1889-01-16

NETWORK NOT YET OUT IN THE COLD
We observe with interest that some of our
Republican friends, particularly in the jocund
and exuberant West, are INDUCING in prophe-
CIV, and that in so doing they seem to be more
regardful of present pleasure than permanent
fame. Up to the moment when the returns
come in the vocation of a so0thsayer is most
agreeable, but in the long run it is not re-
munerative. The predictions 10 which refer
ence is made are likely to confirm the lessons
of experience in this respect. They relate to
the electoral vote of 1899, and especially to
the part which NewYork will play in the next
Presidential election. The prophets are cal
culating the changes which will be produced
by the admission of new States and the new
apportionment based on the census OF 1890,
and with considerable complacency and just
trace of exultation are RELOCATING the Empire
State to a back seat. Their calculations look
very pretty and cogent on paper, but we should
not be in the least surprised if the 80 votes OF
Newly ork doomed up as large as ever four
years hence.
The possibilities of new apporti
viewed at distance of eighteen months be-
fore the enumeration, are infinite, but, in the
first place, we have not CHANGED to come upon
any statement which seemed to us conclusive
of the relative electoral gains to be made by
different parts of the country. Everybody
knows that the Northwest has been gaining
population rapidly since 1880, but so has the
South, and so have also some of the Middle
and some Of the Southwestern States. In the
second place, it is highly desirable not to count
your electors before they are Matched. The
next Congress will be Republican in both
branches, but the majority will not be so large
as to make domineering safe or profitable, and
1t is yet too early to predict that an apportion-
ment bill, following the enumeration Of 1890,
will be put through in time TO increase the
electoral vote of 1892. Even if Republicans
should find themselves in a position to consult
their own wishes exclusively the advantage OF
taking an irrevocable step might not be APP
parent. If 1882 had been Presidential year
there would have been no addition to the num-
Der of electors. In 1872, to be sure, the last
time that a Presidential election occurred in
the second year after census, the electorate
was increased; but precedents count for moth
ing when political supremacy is under discus
sion.
So far as we are able to see, our friends who
are figuring to leave us out in the cold must
for the present, fall back on the probabilities
involved in the admission of new States. From
these welcome increase of Republican
strength may reasonably be expected, but GER
tainly not enough to obhterate the 1 ,300,0 600
voters of New York If four new States come
in they will bring with them IL electoral
votes, and possibly 18-well worth winning
but hardly a balance of power. They cannot
increase the total vote to more than Ala, of
which 2 08 will be necessary to elect. We hope
that 1892 will see the Solid South split wide
open, but people who choose to do their reck-
oning so long in advance must not insist that
the rest Of US shall pin our faith to such
cleavage. That prophet would be phenom-
enally rash who at this day should count New
jersey or Connecticut as surely in the Repub-
lican column hereafter, and Indiana may be
debatable ground four years hence, as she
has habit of being until the votes are
counted. Democratic possibilities for 1892,
therefore include the following: Solid
South, 1853; New-Jersey, O.; Connecticut 81
Indiana, Is; total, 1873. Under those condi-
tons, it occurs to us, and may possibly occur
to the cheerful oracles Of the West, that the
80 votes Of New York would be handy thing
for the Republican party and the Republican
candidate to have, inasmuch as without them
all the other States which were ours last No
vember, together with all the new States, would
leave us l 3 short Of a majority, while with
them the Democrats would have / more than
they needed.
On the whole, we are inclined to think that
more than four years must elapse before it will
be altogether safe for Republicans to look upon
New York as a superluity-a pretty ornament
with which to decorate a triumph, but not
essential To comfort or dignity