Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1889-09-04
Gen. AZ. C. Meigs has contributed ito

Gen. a.. C. Meigs has contributed Ito
Science some reflections on the revelations
which may be expected from the census Of
1890. He reaches the conclusion-assuming the
rate Of increase during the last ten years, when
all the conditions were favorable, to be 81 per
cent-that we shall be found to have 81, 240 900
people in the United States. The ratio here
taken is Just a triie above the average ratio for
tho hundred years of the republics history;
but is considerably under the ratio on which
our population has actually increased within
every decennial period except those where seri-
GUS losses have been suffered through wars and
epidemics. We have had no such drawbacks
during the last nine years and eight months.
On the contrary, immigration has never been
more active than at certain stages of that
period, when Germany and Ireland especially
have poured their Disconnected peasantry into
our ports.
That Gen. Meigs has not made an over
estimate may be judged from the substantial
agreement between his figures and those of
Prof Silas L. LOOMS. some of whose compu-
tations appeared in The STAR about two months
ago. Prof. Loomis sets his prophetic stake at
67,250.O00 When the census of 1880 was taken,
ex-Superintendent Kennedy, E. B. Elliott Of
Walkers statistical atlas" and others, made
advance calculations. varying in their errors
from IL per cent. to per cent, each expert
having peculiar method Of his own. Prof.
LOOMS, however. who makes a point of taking
into account certain variable conditions, like
annexation Of territory, wars, increase Of i'm
migration, and the like, was able to bring his
estimate within three-hundredths Of 1 per cent
"A trihing difference which might have been
.1,rat 20 1..hl in ha
itself.
The inter-confrmatory estimates Of these
two observers lend interest to the further cal
culations Of Gen. Meigs, who looks as far
ahead as 1890 to see what our posterity will
number. Reducing his ratio to 1873 per cent.
30 as to allow for various commissions, he
brings the total up to more than twelve hun
bred million souls. He enters also into some
speculation as to the increase Of trade which
will be necessary to supply this vast population
with the necessaries of life. But who can
tell what the necessaries Of life will be one
hundred years hence? With the gradual chang
ing of the earth's climate, the experiments
that are continually making with new theories
or with old ones revived, who knows what the
civilization of another hundred years may
bring forth in the development Of the race?
Assuming extreme case may not mankind
by that time have become converted to DIR.
Oswalds ideas about fresh air, and be living
wholly out of doors; and to Goethe's youthful
aspirations toward the state of nature, and be
going about unclOthed; and to DR.. Tanners
notion of the healthfulness and happiness of
an exclusive water diet, and be abstaining from
foods? The increase of population may be
figured out with a tolerable accuracy. perhaps;
but the numerous important 'variabIes" in
the development of domestic and social condi-
tions discourage confident speculation con-
corning their aspect in the distant future.