The Camden journal. [volume] (Camden, S.C.) 1866-1891, 1889-10-31
THE REVISED CALCULATION.

&&SJ sAAS
Presidency-The Electoral College as Re-
arranged by the Votes Of the New
States.
What may be regarded as sure Repub-
lican States are Colorado. Illinois, Iowa,
Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Mich
igan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada,
New Hampshire, Ohio, Oregon, Penn
sylvania, Vermont and Wisconsin, ag-
gregating an electoral vote of ITO.
The reliable Democratic States are
Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida,
Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mary
land, Mississippi, Missouri, New jersey,
North Carolina, South Carolina, Ten
nessee, Texas and Virginia, aggregating
15G votes.
The doubtful States are California,
Connecticut, Indiana, New York, Rhode
Island and West Virginia, aggregating
rs votes.
ID If the ten Republican votes from the
new States be added, the sure Rcpub-
llcan strength becomes 1870 Votes. The
vote of Montana is so close and uncer-
tain that it must be classed as q doubt
full State The electoral vote will then
stand thus: ''Reliable Republican
votes, 1870; sure Democratic votes, 15G,
and doubtful, 7S.
Now, the Electoral College al the last
Presidential election numbered 401 votes,
of which 201 were necessary to choice.
In 1892, unless there should meanwhile
be rcapportionment, which is very inn
probable, it will be Ala, with 208 neces
sary for an election. Thus it will be
seen that the Republican candidate will
lack % votes for his election, while the
Democratic candidate will be SO votes
short. The real contest, therefore, wi |
be in the doubtful States.
If the Republican candidate should
carry New York he could lose all the
other doubtful States and yet be elected,
for thirty-si1 New York votes added to
1s0 sure Republican votes would make
216, or eight more than are needed for
election. Without New York, Republi-
cans can win by carrying Indiana, fifteen
votes; California, eight votes, and West
Virginia, six votes, making twenty-n;ne
votes, which, added to 1870, make 300; or
by carrying California, Connecticut and
Indiana, with the same result; or, still
further, by carrying California, Rhode
Island, Montana and Indiana, making
in all 210 votes. Without New York,
Republicans can win with Indiana and
| two or three other doubtful States. But
they cannot lose both New York and
Indiana and then win.
Regarding the Democratic chances for
success, the outlook seems at first dis
couraging, but further consideration is
| more rcaSSurlng.
The Democratic candidate starts out
with 1856 sure votes. If he should carry
in addition New York, SO votes; Indiana
Is; Connecticut or West Virginia, Gin
all 213-he would be elected. Or if he
should carry New York, Indiana and
Rhode Island these would be sufficient.
Or, without Indiana, if the Democrats
carry New York, West Virginia, Con-
necticut and Rhode Island; or New
York, Connecticut, California and Mon
tana, they will elect the next President
Of the United States.
From this it is evident that New York
is absolutely necessary to Democratic
success, and that without it the Demo
cratic control will end in inevitable and
hopeless defeat. But Democrats are
naturally sanguine of party success ir,
New York, and, when factional strifes
and disastrous feuds have not prevailed,
their hopefulness seems justified by their
past experience. With New York and
| tvo or three of the doubtful States this
success IS sure.
We have thus endeavorsd to set forth
clearly the conditions and chances OF
the great political game of 1892. One
inference seems obvious. The choice ct
candidates on both sides will be greatly
influenced by the fact that certain
doubtful States must be carried.
What candidates will be most likely to
carry these States2 1t is possible that
the Democrats might name Western
man who could carry New York, but un-
der the circumstances as indicated
above, New York, rather than the West,
| is likely to furnish the Democratic can
didate. Unless some great and unex-
pected disaster befalls the Republican
party, it can find both East and West
some candidate capable of carrying In
diana. The chances are at least even
| that it can name a man who can capture
New York, and that will Settle the ques-
ton without Indiana. Nor in their case
is it of such prime Importance, much
less necessity, in order to carry doubt
| full State that the candidate should be
resident of that State Washington
Post.