New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1889-09-22

is an interesting question. The actual support
ers of the Administration are scarcely hkely 10
be more numerous in the new Chamber IMAM III
the old. Whatever Republican gains there may
be will probably be in the form of independent
members. or small groups under independent
leadership. Seeing Oreanists Bonapartsts
and BouIanpists ready to unite against them.
will they be equally ready to sink minor differ
ences for the common defence OF MAJOR pilh-
cipes? "When ! look at the Trends oil the
Rcpublic.n said leading French politician not
long ago. ait seems to me that 1t cannot hold
ont six weeks but when look at its enemies
| believe il will be eternal" Certainly the
French Republc has gained much through its
enemies mistakes. but it cannot depend upon
such fortune forever. The parties hostile to
the present system have been steadily drawing
together. for purposes Of attack, unti now their
alliance may well constrain the friends OF the
Government to look for safety to their own
united efforts.
The apparent apathy of the electorate-which
doubtless is only apparent-renderS any 1ore-
cast of the result impracticable. Inc elections
Of the Councils General few weeks ago were
adverse to General BOulanger, but still rather
favorable to the Conservatives, especially to
the Royaists But no safe conclusion can be
drawn from them, or from any by-electlons,
which are proyelbially bad indces of the gen.
eral political drift. The uncertainty is still
mole increased by the scrutn darrondisse-
ment system, which since the last general elec-
tions has been substituted for the scrutln de
IiSfe The scIutin de liste was powerfully adj
yocated by Gambetta, though not adopted until
after his death. because, as he thought, it would
"deliver the central power from the tyranny
Of local interests and bring to the fore men
Of general rather than of local celebrity" ms
il did but it also allowed the growth OF poliII'
cal machines" in the Departments, which soon
came to be regarded as dangerous to the wei
fare Of the State hence the repeal. Under the
scrutin acknowledgements local interests will
regain their power, as in the Councils General
elections, and Departments will send divided
instead of solid delegations TO the Chamber
Probably the Conservatives will make gains in
Departments where their landed interests and
great wealth are influential; while in the IN
dustrial districts of the North and West the
Republicans will make nroadS upon what were
formerly solid Conservative lists. Nor can the
NOllQ-bb Dftutt uNiiNt Hun u 'i''i'i''' NiCii '-
study Of electoral statistics. which really re-
veal only another element Of uncertainty. In
the general elections Of February 20, 1876,
there were east 4,O26153 Republican and
3,2O2233 Conservative votes. In that Of
October II, 1877, with total increase Of abou'
200, 600, the ratio remained nearly the same,
the Republicans having 1 ,3G7,2O2 and tho
Conservatives 3,577.882. But on Aug
ust p, 1881, the Republicans cast
5,l28442 votes and the C0nSerya-
tives only 1,7s07G7, a large portion of
the latter pay not going to the polls and thus
considerably reducing the total vote. At the
election of October 4, 1885, further reduc-
ton was made, this time by Republican stay
at-homes the vote Of that party being only
3,565,412 and that of the Conservatives
3,147,129. This growing abstention from
voting is a remarkable feature Of the French
electorate. There were in 1877 some 1900
900 registered voters, Of whom 7,3SS,00O
exercised their privilege; while in 1885, with
10, 800, 900 electors on the books, only 600
600 ballots were cast So there are now more
than 100000 voters, or one-third Of the en-
tire electorate, whose politics are practically
unknown; and they form, perhaps, the great
est factor of doubt in the problem. 1t is not
conceivable that their abStention indicates
permanent lack Of interest in and abnegation
of the franchise. # is due rather to temporary
causes, which may at any time, even to-day,
disappear. Then these millions Of voters who
have not been heard from for years will make
their power overwhelmingly felt again to what
end only the final canvass of the ballot-boXes
will reveal.