Wichita eagle., 1889-03-13
A BUSINESS BAROMETER.
Bank Exchanges and Railroad Earnings
Unreliable-What is Needed
New York Commercial Bulletin.


u Unreliable-What is Needed.
), New York Commercial Bulletin.
, Recent events have illustrated the i'm
;, portance of securing some reliable meas
ure of the volume of business. 1t ha.
been the custom to rely upon bank clear
e lngs, upon railroad earnings, or even up
, on the movement of tonnage. But il
2 has been found that at ames, when these
| and all other accepted indications OF
business activity were highly favorable
the actual condition was nevertheless
most unsatisfactory, the volume of new
business was shrinking, consumption
was slackening, and disaster was swiftly
approaching for all who had trusted toe
) far. either in these indications or in the
, widely prevalent anticipations of pro.
gress. Equally deceptive have been at
other times the foreshadowings of disas-
ter, which have caused many to lose
golden opportunities, and to curtail their
operations just when increased efforts
would have brought the best results.
The bank exchanges deceive because
they report indiscriminately these kinds
of transactions; % payments on pur-
chase made at any previous time. but
especially the settlements on commercial
paper from three to six months DID, (2)
purely speculative operations, which are
often particularly active when industry
Is about to be. or already is paralyzed: (3)
the ordinary payments arising from day
to day in legitimate business or in settle
ments with labor. Because the returns
include all these in one aggregate, it be-
comes impossible TO judge from the ag-
| gregate of exchanges whether all new
business, speculation included, is increas-
ing or decreasing, or whether the specu-
lation only is increasing and other busl-
ness shrinking. But the recent expan-
sion of, the clearing house system to
many rapidly growing towns has also
rendered these returns less instructive
than they formerly were. Thus the
fact that Kansas City has more
than doubled its clearings within
tour years may not indicate that
there has been any such growth in the
population or production or trade of the
region formerly tributary to that city.
| for it may have extended its business in
to wide fields formerly otherwise occu-
pied.
The railroad earnings are particularly
unreliable because, owing to changes in
law or in the voluntary relations of rail
roads with each other, the rates charged
for transportation no longer depend
mainly upon competition or upon thevol-
ume of traffic. This is so obvious of late,
when rates have been changed repeated
ly as much as 30 per cent on great sys-
TENS of roads, that the railroad receipts
are no longer relied upon even as safe
indication Of the traffic or the real prof
its of a particular system of roads. and
much less of the roads in an entire Sec
ton. of which part report earnings,
while otheIs-most frequently those
which have been losing in the battle for
business-make no reports whatever.
Some attempts have been made 80 get
around these objections by securing rec
ordS of the movement of tonnage on the
principal railroad lines, and record Of
east-bound tonnage of certain kinds of
freight from Chicago, and of west
bound from New York, have been pub
lished for years. But these statements
have grown almost valuelesS on account
of changes in routes preferred, which
have been such that vast quantities now
pass by Chicago entirely of freight
which formerly went through that city,
while large proportion of the manu-
factured goods direct from eastern man
passing through New York. There is no
longer anything like an approximate
constancy of ratio between the recorded |
and the unrecorded movements in either
direction. Reports Of ton mileage over
the different railroads would be more
valuable if they were complete and |
too late to be of much service, |
ON
paratively valueless by the tendency TO |
report tonnage on different lines or parts
of the same system for the same quanti-
ty of freight transported, so that it is not |
possible under present methods of re- |
porting, to determine how far COM
parison of returns for two successive |
years indicates the actual change in the |
quantity of freight moved.
In England another indication of some |
value is supplied by the regular returns
of skilled workmen employed. But these |
reports are obtained from a voluntary
association of workers which do not en-
brace all the workers in a branch, and |
embrace different proportion each |
year. while the meaning of the term |
''skilled workers" is not easily settled. !
At best, the reports serve only as gen.
eral indication of the employment of la
Dor in few departments.
Now that this country has a depart
ment of labor statistics, it might not be
out of place to require monthly returns !
to be made of the number of hands en-
ployed in as many branches of in
dustry as possible. If such a
report could be obtained as would serve |
to indicate reliably the demand for labor
from time to time, that would be evidence |
of the highest value, provided official red |
tape could be SO far overcome as to Sc
cure frequent and prompt publication of |
aggregate results. This country also has
a commission of internal commerce,
which is collecting great body of en-
tirely valueless statistics. But it might !
be made the medium Though which reg
rllar returns of the tonnage moved on all
each month could be gathered |
and compiled. Two monthly returns,
one of labor and the other of tons trans
ported, would offord more valuable indi-
cation of the state of business than any
which is now available.
FLORIDA ORANGES AGAIN.