New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1889-03-21
WHEAT.
FARMERS AND OTHER STOCK ON HAND = nc
FAMINE IN SIGHT.


20 ha hdEfor Of TIE TrtbHhe
Sir. The official report of wheat In FARMER
hands and the report Of exports IN feOruarJ
annear to have been accepted by the MARKET
as nearly settling the question whether uiere
| is IN he n famine this spring, as some peroohs
have been and are still predicting, Inc nnal
| atatemeut for January showed that the heO
exports of wheat -four included, were equl' alenO
IN "a 7eo. o13 bushels Of wheat In seven uon'nS'
AGAINST sl,e22,l02 in the same months Oh Ulo
preyious year The preliminary statement loA
February raises the aggregate for eghU mon'ii'
70 6a.846l45 bushels, against 9l,l43,9o2 hsU
year Reckoning consumption at 40 DushelS
nor capita for food and the arts, and seen ab
"a bushels per acre on an area equal 10 AsU
vasr,s with the Same surplus hitherto estlmateu
for the beginning Of the crop year, We snUui"
have An exportable surplus of 64,3oO,Z4l pusheS
In excess of the minimum stock carried over
ON July l. 1882, against actual exports Vi
% 33s ago bushels from March to July Oh
last year. 1000,
These estimates were by some pronounced
supremeIy foolish short time ago-ahu upc
same persons were buying wheat at aoouC d
dollar per bushel at New-York. and considerably
over that price at Chicago. There is less uIspos'
ton to bet on the scarcity of wheat since inc
official return for March l, showing ll2,ooO'ooo
bushels in farmers hands, besides the 32oOo'ooo
bushels in visible supply. For IN adui-
ton Bradstreet's reports about SoOo'ooo
bushels of wheat at points in the Umteu o 'a'eo
outside of the visible supply, and about s'Ooo'VOV
bushels in the form OF -four held by dealers anu
vet the points covered are less than nan Inooo
at which wheat would naturally be held. Paruo-
ularly, the statement makes no account OF al
of stock at several thousand mills AL @aSt Us
much more wheat must certainly be reckoned
outside of farmers hands, besides Hour, OF whlch
Bradstreet's report is obviously deficient ou'
side the visible supply and farmers hands there
cannot be less than g. 600, 900 bushels OF wheat,
making l62, 100000 in all Outside the Hour
reported by Bradstreet's-nOt nine days supply
for the United States-dealers must hold twice
as much more, or enough in all for at least
one months consumption equivalent 10 $4,000
600 bushels of wheat But there still remains
the -four in the hands Of consumers.
Considering that farmers are about half the
population and do not supply themselves win
flour by the small quantity, while Of the remaining
population many families purchase barrel az
time, il seems safe TO reckon that at least Two,
thirds of all the families buy by the barrel; ana
as the consumption averages about I'VE parreis
a wear 10 each family, the quantity on hand wou4d
average
these families or the equivalent OF ABOUT
10 OOO, 600 bushels Of wheat. The rest OF the
population, if purchasing by the week, would
average at least one, weeks supply T on hand, or
nearly 1000, 600 bushels OF wheat. The ordinary
supply of dour held by consumers may, therefore,
be roughly estimated at the equivalent Oh
81 OOO 900 bushels of wheat, and If IL is liable TO
vary considerably, it would be as large at this
time of the year as at any other. But these
figures would point TO a stock of wheat and -four
in the country equal to about 2o7 100000 bushels
of wheat The quantity required for food ana
seed prior to July is about 100000 bushels,
leaving about 90, 000, 900 bushels for export and
the minimum stock constantly carried. Thus
there is no necessity for supposing that the Official
report of wheat in farmers hands Is far out OF
the way. II il be supposed that the stock OF
-four on hand is equivalent TO 100000 bushels
of wheat more than IT was a year ago. that report
CORES ponds exactly with other statements. Now
il happens that during the past eight months the
exports OF -four have actually been 100000
barrels less than in the same months OF the pre-
Vious year, which would represent 0,OOO,o
bushels wheat in -four left on hand. The fam
inc" is over. The question now is whether the
stock remaining on July l will be incOnyenienty
large, unhss war in Europe causes exports much
beyond those of last year from March TO July l.
New-York, March 1S, $50. W. NJ. u.