Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1889-06-22


cESsUs-vARIors METHODS OF coNPurATIoN-
CLOSE GUESSING AT THE FIGURES or rHI LAST
cxNsus.
We are now approaching the eleventh census
| OF the nation and everything pertaining to it
has an unusual interest There is a general ex-
pectation that the next year will show great
increase Of population. General opinion places
the total at about 6O,0OO, OOO Prominent jour
mails place it high as g. 600 900 or s., 200 900
The late actuary of the Treasury department.,
Z. b. Elliot, places the total at Ga, 500, 900.
There should not be such wide variations The
increase OF population il governed by Law as
hxed as life itself, and, when a large populous
territory is considered and the conditions of
the problem well studied, there should be
practically no difference in the results no mat
ter by whom computed. The variation should
be within per cent. The laws winch govern
the increase OF population in other nations are
OF little consequence in projecting the popula-
non OF the United States. The destructive
influences OF over-crowded cities, poverty,
| inability to produce sufficient food and want Of
| proper clothing and shelter have not been &C.
tive elements In this country. The people of the
United States have been favored with an extern
sIve habitaton. favorable climate, fertile soil.
| and all the appliances that mechanism and
modern civilization can bestow. Freedom. edu-
cation, health. and wealth are all enjoyed in
the broadest sense Of these terms The pro-
duction Of the human species. therefore, has
proceeded under the most favorable circum-
stances. While this is a fact-and hence there
| Is great permanent factor in the increase of
population, which is practically constant, vary
ing within very narrow limits-there are
so MANY VARIABLE ELEMENTS
| that unless these are taken into consideration
no reliable estimate Of the population for any
particular date is possible. common method
OF projecting the population is to take the ratio
OF increase from one census to the next, con-
slderlng the number taken and each census as
| term of an arithmetical series, and applying
this ratio to coming census. This method
VIII give ratio of about 80 per cent or a
population In 1880 OF $685. 24. 1t is well
known, however, that this series is not arith-
metrical, but geometrical, and hence a differ
eht result will appear. Again, the population
SERIES considered as whole. may be projected
by the method of second differences" as
was done by Mr.. Elliot in Walkers Statistical
Atlas OF 1870. The errors in each Of these
methods consist in emitting to take into ac-
count the variable elements. This omission
renders all such attempts to project popula-
tion, or to interpolate terms for any particular
date, absolutely erroneous and worthless This
method of manipulating statistical problems
by leaving out variable elements was what led
lourgee In his appeal to Caesar" into such
stupendous errors in reference to the increase
OF the blacks The coming census will show how
untrue and injurious his deductions have been.
On page 1876 he has this conclusion: THAT in the
| year 1900 each of the states lying between
Maryland and Texas will have a colored ma
| jority within its borders, and we shall have
eight minor republics of the Union in which
eilher the colored race will rule or a majority
will be DISTINGUISHED" Aside from the statis-
| teal premises Tourgee uses, the physical con-
stltution OF the human race forbids any such
conclusions as the above. Extended this will
depopulate the earth Of white races and leave
| the colored race in supreme command. We
| leave this remarkable Theory" to confront
the rigid facts Of the eleventh census To ac-
curateiy project the population of the United
| States or any section thereof the birth
| ratio" or
THE INCREASE OF POPULATION BY BIRTHS OVER
DEATHS,
must be correctly determined as the first and
most important step. Without going into de-
tails of the determination of this birth ratio it
has been found in the decennium from 1870 to
1900 to be sos per cent. From this period to
the decennium between 1870 and 1880 il has
| diminished to 2.01 per cent. This is a most
remarkable and unlocked for result, and of
itself presents some astonishing conclusions
The capacity Of reproduction in the United
States has diminished over 33 per cent in q
hundred years. This birth ratio has seemed
to have reached a minimum, and the proba-
blllty now is will slowly increase. study of
| the older states shows that this decrease from
Whatever cause, is seen more especially within
their borders. The second element of varia-
ton ia Immigration" In the early part of
the century the annual ratio of immigration"
or OF non-immigrants to immigrants for forty
years did not exceed LIS per cent, and varied
within two-tenths Of per cent. During the
latter half OF the century the ratio has in
creased, varying from to 10 per cent Only
once has 1t exceeded 10 per cent by a very
small fraction. The laws OF the United States
Canada and Mexico, but from Canadian
records practically reliable number of immi-
grants from that source may be obtained
Other variables must also be considered, as
| annexation of territory" "war," ''importa-
ton of slaves" &c. Now, having an actual
| enumeration Of the population every ten years,
and properly considering all the modifying
conditions above mentioned, the accurate pop
ulation for any given date ought to be ex-
pected; at least the error ought to be much
less than per cent.
THE PREDICTIONS FOR 1880 AND THOSE OF 1890.
The census Of 1880 was projected by various
methods, with the following results: Mr.. Ken
nedy, superintendent of census Of 1860, COM
puted the census Of 1880 with an error of $751;
600, using general ratio" E. B. Elliot, in
Walkers Statistical Atlas, by the method of
second differences" made an error of 705, 600.
Bouyng's, by the general ratio, had an error of
49, 600. 8. /. Loomis, by the ''birth ratio
and variables," had an error Of $4,000. The
comparative value of these different methods
is best seen by reducing the errors to per cents
1t Ia thus found that Kennedys error was about
II per cent; Elliot's about Ia per cent;
Bouyng's about per cent and Loomis' less
than 3-l00 Of per cent, an error probably not
greater than in the census itself. In other
words the result was accurate. These same
parties, each by the same methods, projected
the census of 1890, giving the following esti-
mates Of the population for the eleventh
census: Kennedy estimates it to be n 267, 600;
Loomis, 67,249,621; Elliot, $4,000, 600, and
Bouyng, 81, az, 143. In projecting the popuia-
ton for 1880, which was done in 1878, ali the
laws that modify the increase of population
were carefully and separately considered by
me in their application. The accuracy OF this
method was apparently proven by the census
Of 1880. I am therefore compelled to the con-
clusion that the census Of 1890 will show q
population Of about sizty-seuen and one-q1arter
million. SILAs L. LooxIs.
Saturday Smiles.
The near-sighted hen that swallowed bee
was not long In concluding that hers was peck
Of trouble.-Bingha,npto Republican.
There's many q fret
'Twixt the try and the get.