Waterbury evening Democrat., 1889-12-04
GREAT WHEAT RIVALS.
Foreshadowing the Downfall Of
 Our Supremacy in Grain.
ws Cannot Compete With the Cheap Land, Labor and Transportation of Russia, India and the Argentine
 Republic-The Grain Problem.
COPYRIGHT 1889.

which we are voluntarily or involun- tarily more interested than in the price of bread.
 Hence that of wheat.
 ''ls there anything new in relation to wheat priceS?'
 ''There is, indeed; or is going to be. It is only a few years since the United States dominated the wheat markets of the world-in 1879, 1880, 1881 and 1882 By that time India and Russia began to compete with us-the ''pauper" wheat growers of Southeastern Europe and Southern Asia, if you please. This threw the price-lever into the hands of the English, the chief purchasers of i'm ported wheat. enabling them to sit l still while India, Russia and the United States cut each other s threats by un- er-bldding each other. Since then, Australia, Chili and latterly Argentine Republic have entered the contest as | wheat producers in excess of their home | requirements, and the question of our | future as a competitor in the world s markets for the sale of wheat assumes | very prominent proportions.
 At this time the situation in the do- 1 meStlc wheat markets is not particu- | larly satisfactory to those who class themselves as "constitutional bulls'- 1 those mem berS of the trade who are | firm believers in the intrinsic worth of l market to hold it up, who carry the grain. and in this way perform the | economic function of holding one sea- | sons surplus to meet tho wants pro- duced by lean harvest.
 | The price of wheat to-day is, or has | been, about 24 per cent. less than it was one year ago, although the domestic' crop is only 15 per cent. larger than in | 1888. with reported smaller supplies | nV3lla hlh for RnSSia India. This is the more striking when | 1t is recalled that our reserve stocks St | the close of the last cereal year, July l, 1889, or on August l, following, ran down as low as 35, 900, 900 bushels, wis able and invisible"-that is, stocks in sight at various points of accumula- tion and stocks in farmers hands and elsewhere, not reported There are some statisticians who place the reserves of August l, 1889 at even a smaller total | than l have given. This means that while our exports of wheat for the twelve months, ended July l, l,aggregated | including four about 90, GOO, 600 bush els of wheat-less than for number of years before-we were obliged to draw upon farmers bins and other reserves from 15,o00,000 to 20 000, ,o00 bushels in order to meet homo and foreign require ments.
 Our crops of wheat last year, 415, 000000, was considerably under an average, too. This year with, prob ably, 410 or 4S0, 900, 900 measured bush els of wheat, quite an average harvest, the seasons requirements will include an item to cover the 20, coo, 900 oXceS- Slve depletion of the preceding twelve | month. On top of this came the re- ports of lighter export supplies in India and Russia. yet prices have ranged 70 to 24 per cent below those of year ago. The great wheat experts have thus far been at fault in their predic- tiOnS or expressions as to the probable course of prices. In England. Beer bohm, a leading authority, has not'been committal, though manifestly expecting higher quotations. In Dornbusch s Circular. widely known in the grain trade, the letters signed by Mr. II. kaius-J Jackson, have pronounced fatly in favor of the belief that the winter Bear, of London. once editor of the Mark Lane ENrrCss,' has inclined to like views, particularly as Germany and France expect 10 haze to buy some wheat this year from abroad
 At homo there have cen honest diff ferences of op'r.ons imong good judges for moro or less plausible reasons, only crc Of which calls for special reference, to wit. that there wi be more than 2.O00. ;OC. GOO bushels ot wheat for export fer the year ending July l, 1890.
 The veriest boy in the grain trade should know th's to be worse than absurd. Let me prove it to you.
 We will presume that the domestic grain crops for l>S amounts to 4so, ,ooo,, e0O bushcls--prCDatly larger-and that the quantity of wheat carried over last summer was about :H,000, COG from the preceding crop. That total, certainly a liberal one. is bas cd on personal inveSti
 gation. This would indicate q total supply with which to begin the current crop year amounting to about515. .0or, 00G
 bushels. The clos est current estimates for wheat required fer food at home average about 290, on", GOO bushels, the quantity to be recui, ed for seed and fol
 use in manufactures, etc, about 6i eco,
 GOO bushels, or for total home require
 ments 357,O00, coo bushels, leaving
 about 15S, 900, 900 bushels to export and
 carry over into the new crop year, July
 1, 1890. Now, if we allow only 50, coo.
 900 bushels to fill up last summers de
 the season of 1s9O-'91, there will re-
 main available for export from July | last to June so, IS. 0. about los, COG. COG
 bushels Of course, if we can 2e
 along without "carrying over' all O
 50, GOO, coo bushels. VIC increase the l quantity available Tor export Dy JuS
 that much, so that it the outside one
 may place such total. perhaps. at HIS ol l 12O, GOO, 0O0 bushels. Eut shall we neeC
 that much? It does not look as if we
 should-that is, not now.
 For nearly five months of the current
 cereal year, July to the close of Nov
 vember, our exports of wheat (and O. | flour as wheatl have amounted to more
 than 42,000, 000 bushels as compared
 with 1T, OOO. eco bushels in a orrespond } ing portion of lS-S. As Europe took | the bulk of her wheat purchases iron l us in the first five rather than in tht ) last seven months of the previou: cereal year Jour total exports that veal , being only 90. coo, coo bushels) it will bt | seen that, unless an unusual demand } | for our wheat shows itself in May ant June, 1890, the prospect for 1sS9'90 i for smaller foreign shipments thar
 last year. Our exports are II per cent
 less than from Juno 30 to the end O | November, 1SSS, and if they maintain
 like proportions until next summer, tn,
 total cereal years shipment will no
 exceed S3, 900, coo bushels. So if th' l United States are to have f0S or LIS, GOO,
 900 bushels for export in the curren
 year, shipments al the rate maintainet
 during nearly one-half of it promise t'