The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1888-02-01
DOES LUCK EXIST?
WHAT A SCIENTIST HAS TO SAY
ON THE SUBJECT.


II there is a belief which men are little
likely to give up despite all reasoning and
III evidence, it is belief in luck. 1t is essen
tally an unscientific belief, since in every
form in which we recognize it we see the
;Ioa of causation on which all science is
based rejected in favor of some form of
fetisbes which in the savage we should re-
card as degrading. The man who deliberately
noi1s I'D a horseshoe over the door that
b,ck may be brought to all who pass
boneath it, knows perfectly we'll that the
horseshoe cannot in any natural or physical
vev affect the event which he
wishes to turn out well. Yet he
expects it somehow to bring luck,
tbough. strangely enough, he has not even
baard of the reason which the original use
If the horseshoe implied. | suppose not one
of those who fasten the horseshoe up in this
way. though usually selecting the right
Mace. doorway, is aware of the real sig
ppifcance of the symbol for those Oriental
races among whom the usage originated.
In entering a doorway so ornamented each
believer rightly to carry out the observance
oupht to make an obeiSance before that
which is in reality one of the symbols of
silva. the third god of the Hindoo trinity l
suppose Occident ais, however sincere their
confidence i'll the efficiency of the horseshoe,
would scarcely care to worship silva, even
svmbolically; and certainly, if the actual
SYMBOLISM in this case were generally
known. the horseshoe would be even more
summarily rejected from our doorways on
that account than on account of its religious
significance;
Yet nearly all our luck symbols are in
like manner the emblems either of supersti-
tjons or of improprieties tonce held sacred
or of both, and it is hard to say whether
faith i'll them as unmeaning fetisheS is less
or more degrading than would be such faith
in them as is felt 10y the worshipers of idols
and unseemly SymbOlisms. For belief in all
unmeaning and imperative luck emblems
or performances implies the absence of all
those ideas or causation which raise the
cultured man above the savage. Indeed the
savage has better reason for his faith in
fetish than the American of the nineteenth
century has for his corresponding belief ;
since the latter knows certainly that his
horseshoe, his wedding slipper, his mascottes
of all sorts, shapes and SIZE his turniugs to-
ward or from the new moon, and kindred
absurdities can have no causative influence
on his succ5 IS; while the savage who at
tributes life and will to animate objects,
thinks he has good reas n for expecting real
assistance from his fetishisms.
Belief in luck apart from such fancies and
superstltions is equally unscientifc and I'M
reasonable. The average mind, which has
ever been an illogical mind, draws no dis
tinction between the observed ill luck and
good luck of individuals, and ill luck and
good luck which may be expected to con
tinue. 1t is this trust in luck, this expecta-
ton based on past events, which is unscien-
tiic and illogical, not the recognition of the
fact that such and such men have been lucky
or unlucky in the past. This last is GER
tainty; the belief based on it by the aver
age mind is our absurdity. There have
been men who have not only been lucky in
all the leading events of their lives, but
who have seemed unable to fail in chance
matters, so persistently has good fortune
followed them. And on the other hand,
there have been persons whose lives present
so persistent a continuance of bad luck it
seems to the illogical average mind
a simple absurdity to say that in
any event of pure chance, still
to he decided, affecting one whose record is
of the former kind, we ought not to except
his success, or that where such an event will
affect a person who has been persistently
unlucky we ~ught not to anticipate his
failure; but to the man of science, or, in
deed, to any one who has what is unCom-
nom the faculty of logical reasoning, either
expectation appears prepOsterous on the
face OF it. Granted that an event depends
solely on chance, to expect its nature to be
influenced bv tie past success or failure Of
a man in matters entirely unconuected with
it, is to accept the absurd contradiction that
a series OF events can affect the decision of
an event i'll no way connected with them
This clearly indicates weakness of reasoning
as obviously as the belief that a horseshoe
will bring man good fortune If nailed over
his door, or such fancies as card-plavers
entertain about changing the luck by
changing their seat or the pack with which
they play.
Il may seem harsh to say that beliefs of
this sort which are entertained by ninety
nine men in a hundred, indicate a weak
place in the brain. But insomuch as more
than one profound philosopher has ex-
pressed the belief that every man has some
weak place In the BRAIN las each man
would admit of himself if he tested all his
beliefs and compared them with those of
hs fellow men dispassioEately), to say that
faith in luck and fetishes indicates mental
flaw IS merely to say that the weak piece in
the average brain includes this particular
weakness.
Consider the case of believer in luck
actually putting his belief to the test-not
merely as to its correctness, but as to his
own faith in it, which may not perhaps be
80 real as he imagines. Take concrete ex-
ample, gambler at San Carlo, who has
been having great run of luck An on
locker, possessed with the belief in luck be-
gins TO regard this player as one of the
ihcky whose fortunes we will do well to fol-
low, in order that the luck may be, as it
We're, reflected upon himself. But his mind
~ divided by several thoughts. In the first
place, he is not altogether sure that the
gamblers good luck is likely TO be steady
The longer he notes his continuance the
more satisfied he becomes on this point Yet
ne knows, or thinks he knows, that even
the Steadiest luck has its limit and the
longer he looked on and watched success
after success, the more anxious he becomes
lest TINS limit should be close at hand He
wishes to- share the successful gamblers
good fortune, but he fears lest, at the very
moment when he makes the attempt, that
fortune will for the time turn, and he will
reap loss only and no gain. These doubts,
winch every outsider in such a case ex-
perlences show that in reality there is no
IalIh in the lucky gamblers luck. The mind
unconsclously works more correctly than
thlnks He would say, at the very moment
mat he is perplexed by such doubts, that he
mas full faith in the gamblers luck; but has
not he only thinks he has
IL, overcoming his doubts, he joins in the
pay, backing always the same color as the
heretofore lucky gambler, he is bound to
1 Ilu either his hopes or his fears confirmed.
4 et' whichever event happens, his faith in
luck VIII be confirmed. He will recognize
an success new evidence of the power of