Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1888-10-23
CITY AND DISTRICT.
seA' freely Te1ls s0meshinu of the
Work Of ssOld Probs.,

WEATHER PREDICTIONS.
Gen. S.eeiy Tells semeshinu of the
work Of ''Old Probs.,,
THs CHANGE IN THE "rHspIcrrox YxKropr-rHx
rscSsfAsE OF AocuRAcY-AS INTERNATIONAL
-hkoohhESDATross yoR TIE BETTER
MINT OF TEE SERVICE.
Son ereeiys annual report TO the Secretary OF
war states that the growing urgency OF demands
1poa .ne central once or the signal Service for
oi iorec@ses proves most conclusively the
confidence placed By the general nunI,c IN the
accuracy OF the predictions DESPITE errors arising
paIdS Hom Incorrect general forecasts and
PARTY iron the variety OF weather conditions pre-
,aiins IN the large areas predicted for sAlthougn
seeu course entails greater labor upon this
serSice ana demands q higher order OF talent In
tos preolcting oncer, yet the service has adhered
.ns plan OF limiting predictions TO states. When
sne oiusion OF q state Ia advisable it has been
passed on such physical connguratlons as have a
marked influence upon weather conditions. The
appnostions for special predictions for cities and
o~ns nave been so numerous that this ONCE
cooAo not undertake to furnish them regularly,
Is sucn action would necessarily end in the pre-
oictions Tor the general public being sighted and
tions The oce hss =, those lpr sPec,ai s SeG
speciai secuons and local predictions as could be
issued without overtaxing the Indications ofcial"
70 twenty-four hours was made In submission to
sne generally expressed sentiment that the num-
% p,ealctions should be reduced so as 70 AVOID
uncertainty and complication, and that they
snouAo De made for a briefer period.
TIE PERCENTAGE OF ACCURACY.
Uur1ng the current year there have been i, 21O
storm signals OF all kinds ordered, OF which 93o,
IA per cent, have been verified This percentage
Is SO higher than In 1857, and while this improve
ment 10 noted with satisfaction IL Is believed that
mofo accurate work Is possible Until the pres
dict the force Of storms, although such duties are
plainly imposed upon II by Joint resolution OF
February 8, 1870, under which tine service was
organized The difference In the force OF storms Is
50 great and OF such importance 10 the maritime
public that system for this purpose was inaugu-
lated and put In force on september !, lsss Inc
be light or severe, and whether the storm-center
Is approaching or has passed the station, and,
npally, from what quarter the winds are expected.
The service attempts, however, only to predict
easeeriy winds or westerly winds, since a very
slight change In the course OF storm makes
q wind northeast instead OF southeast. In
order that the general public may have
the beneft OF an opinion, which does not rise to
In all cases indicates whether the strong winds
are expected In the northerY quadrants or south
fhs publications Of this service clearly set forth
that this distinction OF Quadrants must not be re-
lied upon, but that parties can only count on
easteriy or westerly winds, as the case may be.
In separating winds into easterly or westerly
winds, the sOutherly wind is classed with the east
erly winds which occur in the United States In
advance OF the storms, and the northerly winds
wfth the westerly, because IL occurs, as q rule,
areer the storm-center has passed.
The display OF this class OF signals, giving such
dsdnite infornation, has proved advantageous and
most satiIactory TO the maritime interests OF the
country. Under the old system, westerly and
other on-snore winds favorable TO navigation,
wSfe frequently the cause OF unJustinaDle alarm,
owing 20 the signals displayed In connection with
them. Under the present system, when signals are
displayed Tor onsaOre winds, the fact Is clear 10
every one and such signals instead or being based
On moderate westerly winds, as formerly, are
now only shown when those winds are expected
10 attain such force as TO be dangerous 10 N.Y.
provided vessels
COLD WAVES.
The system OF coId-wave warnings has contin-
ued In successful operation, the general salts
faction and frequently great advantage or the
public. IL Is now generally understood that the
exact meaning OF the term '.cOld wave" implies
that the temperature Will TALL below 40 degrees,
and that In twenty-fo hours an abnormal fall
OF Is or more degrees will occur. The great ad-
vantages OF knowing sixteen 10 twenty-fOur hours
II advance that the temperature Will fall Sharply
Apply not only To manifold business interests, but
Affect the comfort Of thousands, and at times the
health and life Of hundreds. The importance OF
early and successful forecasts OF cod waves Is the
greatest In the Northwest. In order TO meet the
needs OF that section, and To comply with the
earnest applications from citizens and corporate
bodies OF great vested values, the Chief signal
OIdcer stationed an indications officer First Lieut.
Thomas NJ. Woodruff, Fifth Init, Acting Signal
Ofacer, at st. Paul, MINI.
This arrangement enabled that officer to receive
his reports an nOur earlier than In Washington,
and further enabled him 10 send out warnings OF
cold waves from Two 10 nve hours earlier than was
before done. warning earlier by Two or three
hours while not OF special Importance east or the
Mississippi River, Is very mucn so 70 the North
west, where the earliest signs OF a cold wave are
rarely more than twelve hours In advance of its
full predOminance. This action Of the CHIEF Signal
C11cer resulted In a marked improvement OF cold
wave warnings for DAKOTA, Iowa, Minnesota, Ne
braska and Wisconsin; so that the percentage of
signals ordered by Lieut.. Woodruff was consldera-
bly, greater than those for 1887 The RELIEF OF thus
o1rcer from duty with the Signal Service has me-
cessitated a change, and during the coming year
the colt-wave signals Will be ordered from the
central ofrice. With a View. however, 10 improv-
ing the character Of cold-waye preeiicttoDs. the
Chief signal Oficer has directed the study or this
phenomenon BY Assistant Professor Thomas Rus
sell, whose assignment 10 this work will follow
some time during the coming year. Ii Is hoped
that the assignment or single officer TO issue this
important class OF warnings will result In a very
material improvement OF that branch OF the
service.
THE WEEKLY BULLETINS.
The signal Once has continued the issue each
sunday morning OF a bulletin showing the effect
OF the weather for the previous seven days on
important crops, especially cotton corn. hay. To-
bacco, and wheat Many cOmmendatOry letters
have been received attesting the great practical
shows the excess and deficiency OF sunshine tenn
perature, and rainfall for short regular periods
Such information Is an important factor in deter.
mining in advance the probable yield Of the great
staples OF the country, and 50 has a marked bear
Ing on all extended enterprises.
Observations on atmospheric electricity with a
view 70 determining its relation TO weather condi
tons, and whether such observations OF elec
1rical phenomena would further weather predtc.
tons, nave been continued throughout the wear
at four stations: Boston, Mass; Washington D
C.; New York city. and Terre Haute, Ind
RAILWAY BULLETINS
The railway bulletin service has decreased dur-
ing the year; its work Is being SUBSTANTIALLY re-
placed by the laDors OF the various state weather
services and the plan Of cooperation adopted NV
the Chief Signal Onlcer with reference 10 them
Several railways continue the service and n
proves rapid and generally satisfactory means of
disseminating the Indications. This ONCE con-
tinues 70 furnish Indications ana forms for display
70 any railway which desires TO Cooperate with
tails bureau As the service voluntary AZ is often
TIE case that operators neglect TO post the bule-
tins With that regularity which the iInportant
Character OF tie work demands
AN INTERNATIONAL SERVICE
In accordance with the arrangements author
ized oy the Secretary caOlegram Is sent each
night 10 Professor Mascart director OF the central
meteorological ONCE, at Paris, summarizing the
the synchrol0us observations, gales dereIicts
and dangerous Ice OF the Atlantic Tor the previons
nve days and the weather conditions or me
N