New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1888-03-09
POSSIBLE WAR ABROAD, AND PRICES.

Modern commerce and means of communion
t,on make the whole world one. AS every
civilized Nation bent with us over the death
bed of the stricken Garfield, so sixty millions
of Americans have been waiting with deep
sympathy for the latest tidngs from the bed
side of the Emperor of Germany. Strong
human sympathy is reinforced here by the
expectation of important effects upon Amcr-
can markets and industries. With or without
reason. IL has been supposed by many that
change in the Government of Germany will
result in great financial and industrial changes.
affecting banks, finances, stocks, investments
and industries of this country materially This
expectation is so far exaggerated, in all prob
ability, that in practical influence it is essen
TALLY erroneous.
The reasoning upon which all expectation OF
serious changes is based does not bear close
scrutiny. No one seriously apprehends
internal disorders in Germany, or re-
sistance to the succession of Prince William
if tho Emperor or the Crown Prince
should die. The current theory is that the
young Prince may pursue policy hostile to
that which has governed the Emperor, but
of this there is singuIarly little evidence.
Popular impressions of the thoughts and ten
denotes of young man. based upon his utter
anccs or conduct when not clothed with respon-
sibity, afford little safe indication as to his
course when acting under sense of the most
wcighty responsibility. and with the advice of
the ablcst minds in the Nation.
But if great war in Europe were certain,
what effects would il have here? 1t would ut
all events be not more serious in financial and
Industrial influence than the struggle between
Germany and France. which began in the sum-
mcr Of 1870 and lasted nearly year How
did that affect American markets? a great
MANY Spectators counted upon immense
changes then. Most of them stal1cd largely on
the anticipated advance in prices, and many
lost heavily. not few going into bankruptcy
The fact is that the average of prices in this
+ country was lower in November. 1870. than in
May Of that year before the war began, and
lower also January I, and May |, 1871. In
Short, no general advance occurred, but gen
cral decline, amounting at one time to about
per cent in the aggregate.
| II is interesting TO notice that this decline was
not confined to any one article or class OF anti
ces, but was quite general. Brcadstuffs were
| 1T no time during Die continuance Of the war
as high in average price as they were before
tho war began The same was true Of meats
IN the aggregate and of such articles as TO-
Lacco whiSkcy, coffee and tea. Wheat adj
vanccd - per cent because the crop Of 1870
was deficient, but in place of an expected In
crease there was a decrease in the quantity en-
ported, while corn barley and rye declined
heavily Pork declined SIC per barrel, and
hogs 50 per 100 pounds, and lard SIS cents
and beef 81 81 per 100 pounds The average
Price of cIothing in this country was lower at
| all times during tho continuance Of the war
than before it began, and The price Of metals
and their products lower for several months
recovered and but slightly advanced before the
war ended Pig iron dropped from 1913 to
$40 so and rails from ST to SO. But the
detail, are not important, since the general fact
sufiices to prove that such an extensive adj
vance in prices as many expect, rs conSe-
o,icnco of anv important war III Europe, may
| not result The example is the more instruct
| i've. because the conditions in 'his country were
then such as to favor "A remarkable advance in
prices which did in fact come to pass within a
wear or two after the European war had ended.
| The rise in prices and the furious speculation
! in 1872 and 1873 resulted in general collapse
in the fall Of 1873.