Sharp County record., 1888-03-22


die. 10000, 900 of persons make each
100 trials, going on at each trial only
so long as "six" was tossed, there
would be in all 600 0OO 900 trials. 1t is
practically certain that in about lOO,
OOO, 900 of these "six" would be tossed
at the first trial; in about 16 G66 667 OF
these, six" would be tossed n see
ond time; in about 2,77I778 OF
these it would be tossed q third timei
in about 462, 963 of these fifth timei
in about y $50 of these 4 sixth timei
in about 9, 143 of these q seventh timei
in about 357 of these an eighth timei
in about go of these ninth time, and
in about 10 of these q tenth time. 1t
would be very strange and unusual
thinq if up to the ninth set Of trials
these numbers were not represented
verv closely; for it would imply that
IN a great number of tOsSings ''sjX
had not appeared its duly proportion
ate number of times-yiz.: in about
one-sixth the number Of trials. Even
in the set of tenth trials, about 90 in
number it would be very strange
thing if no "six" appeared in all those
trials the full number of ten consecu-
tive 'sixes, which, considered alone
seems so remarkable, would have ap-
noorcd. If we increase the number
of trials q hundred-fold, as we can
unite readily imagine done, by allow
inc the 5000, 900 to make each 100
trials on each of 100 consecutive even
incs, we increase the number OF ninth
trials to about 5000. Now consider
what a surprising thing it would seem
if among about 5000 tOssngs not n
single six appeared; in other words,
how surprising it would be if the very
event which, on the other view, appears
so amazing as to be judged utterly
impossible did not occur once at least
As a matter of fact, it would probably
occur about 1, 900 times. Yet the per-
sons to whom these long series Of
"sxes" occurred could no more be re-
garded as lucky. in the sense that they
would be more likely than others
to toss ''sixes" in subsequent trials,
than the winner Of the chief prize in a
lottery would be lucky in the sense OF
being more likely to win the great
prize at the next trial
But it may be said in each case the
man was lucky, and we, the believers
in luck, would do well to trust in his
good fortune after he had thus shown
that he was lucky man. This may
be said, but what would be the actual
conduct of the very persons who were
thus confident in such lucky menP Is
there any gambler on the face of the
earth who, if he knew that the last
winner of the chief prize in lottery
had drawn a particular number for
the next trial, would back that num-
Der? On the contrary, of all numbers
that would be the one he would avoid
most carefully. "Who ever heard, "
he would ask, ''of the great prize be-
ing won twice running by the same
man? Lightning does not strike twice
in the same place. We
must choose some other num-
ber." Yet the winner of the
last great prize has just the same
chance of winning the next prize as
any other ticket buyer; in other words,
he has chance worth, theoretically,
little more than half what he has
paid for his ticket, and practically
worth about fourth of that price. If
there were any truth in the doctrine
of luck his chance of winning y great
prize would be greater than that Of
any other ticket holder, since his luck
had been proved by q crucial test to
be good, while of the luck of the rest
nothing would presumably be known.
Yet put to the test the believer in
luck shows that his faith is weak since
he puts more faith Gin this case) in the
doctrine that luck must change than
in what he suppOses to be his faith, the
doctrine that luck can be tr usted to
continue.
In lotteries and kindred forms of
gambling, men reject trust in other
folks luck, and believe instead in CO.
incidences and dreams. They find
the number on which they finally
stake their faith IN all manner Of alb
surd and unmeaning ways. All the
tens of thousands of ticket-holders in
great lottery have selected their
numbers in some way satisfactory to
themselves, about which we hear
nothing when the result is a failure,
as in ninety-nine cases out Of one
hundred it necessarily is But when
the result chances to be 4 success, as
in small proportion of cases it must
be, the whole story is gravey related
in the papers as though the number
actually bringing the prize had been
determined beforehand by some
scientific process of reasoning, and
success assured by the exercise Of
good judgment or ingenuity.
Yet it is idle 10 inveigh against the
folly of such faucies and supers titiOns.