Smyrna times., 1888-07-11
WHERE THE STRESS OF THE BATTLE
WILL BE,

WHERE The STRESS OF THE BATTLE
WILL BE.
The Providence Rhode Island) Jour-
nal independently has a thoughtful
and impartial article on the political
situation. The contest between the
two parties is restricted as to the final
result within such narrow limits that
any intelligent examination of the
actual fighting ground cannot fail to
be of interest. The Journal recognizes
as probably true that each party will
carry the States that have heretofore
been regarded as surely democratic or
republican, and is in accord with the
very general belief that the fight will
be narrowed down to four States, that
Is, to New York, New Jersey, Indiana
and Connecticut" These are the
doubtful States. 1t is on these the bat
tie is to be lost or won, and they are
claimed by both parties with equal
confidence. But assuming that the
next presidency is to be determined by
the result of the votes in the four State s
we have mentioned, what are the
chances in each? To the better under
standing of this important question it
10 DlODCI We SLOulu SldkG db DLlG OuIStL
that if the republicans carry Indiana
and the democrats New York, neither
would have a majority of the electoral
vote. Carrying Indiana, the republi-
cans would have a majority if they car
ried either New Jersey or Connecticut.
The democrats, on the other hand, if
they lose Indiana, would have to carry
both New Jersey and Connecticut, in
addition to New York, to get a major
ity. If the democratic party lost New
York republican victory would be
assured but, on balance of prOba-
bilities, the Journal comedies New
York to the democrats. Generally
speaking, the vote of Connecticut in a
presidential year has beed strongly af-
fected by the vote of New York. But
Connecticut is State in which manu-
factures of all kinds abound, and on
such a square issue as a protective or a
modified tariff, with all the power OF
the manufacturing interests brought
to bear on the operatives, there is a
possibility that Connecticut may not
follow the lead of New York this year
and may cast her electoral vote for
Harrison. If Indiana and Connecticut
should go for Harrison, the turning
point in the campaign would be New
Jersey. The democrats have the pres
tige of having been generally success
! full in that State in presidential years,
although the Legislature has frequently
gone republican. Only on two Occa-
sions has the State cast its electoral
vote for a republican candidate since
the republican party was inaugurated
This year." says the Journal, &" il
cannot be asserted that the prospects
of one party there are any better thar
those of the othel." The republicans
have been gaining ground of late, are
energetic and pushing, and by passing
a high license law hope to draw off 1
part of the prohibition vote, which is 8
very large one in New Jersey. Gen
eral Fisk, whom the prohibtionisti
have nominated for President, is sale
to be a strong man in that State, anC
has already begun a very active cam.
paign there to keep his party together
The chances, therefore, of making an!
serious inrOads into the prohibition
vote are said to be small. 1.-THE farm
ing element is democratic and so is
large proportion of the labor vote,
but the point to be determined, and i
is one that may turn the scale in favo
of the republicans, is whether the dem
Ocratic manufacturers on some of whom
the idea of protection has strOni
hold, will support the party ticket, o
whether a free trade scare" may no
drive them and their operatives int
the republican camp. These are al
nice points to determine, and the.
prove that there remains an element c
doubt about the result which the dem
ocrats can only remove by active, per
sistent and energetic work.-BdttimoT
Sun.