New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1888-07-28
TEE HOUSE CAN BE CARRIED.

suggests to the mind the importance OF the
coming Congressional elections. Few antici-
pate the passage of that or any similar measure
in the Senate this year But the future of in
dustries will depend, in all probability, upon
the verdict Of the people next fall in the close
Congressional districts, not less than on the
choice of President and Vice-Pre'dent. In
1886 the Republicans cut down the Democratic
majority from about 40 to o, reckoning al
so-caled Independents as Democrats. On the
Mills bill the majority was only l 3, but one
or two Democratic members refused to vote
either for or against it.. Can this majority be
wiped out at the coming election? it is to be
remembered that the election Of 1856, like
that of 1884, was carried in part by false pre-
fences. Mr. Cleveland was elected by the false
pretence that he was not Free Trader and
in 1886 more than 90 Democratic members
were elected by express pledges to their con-
stituents that they would resist the free-trade
policy. Those pledges they have in nearly
every case now violated.
To change the complexion Of the House there
is required gain of only members for pro-
lection. and gain OF only | 0 members for the
Republican party With the current setting
strongly against Free Traders in Northern
States there is little reason to expect Repub-
lean loss in any Northern district, and there
are only two Southern districts in which the
Republican majOrities arc narrow. In the With
Maryland and the IXth Kentucky probably
nothing but Democratic frauds can defeat the
candidate who supports protection, but 1t Is
necessary to count upon fraud in each OF those
States. To make things safe, therefore, there
should be a gain Of IL members or more for
the Republican party, because recent events
have shown that Democrat elected as pro-
tectionist will help to choose frce-tradc
Speaker. to organize the House with free-trade
committees, and in the end is exceedingly apt
to be buled or brbed by frec-trade caucus
majority or by Democratic President.
There are twenty two Southern districts in
which Democratic majorities are narrow, and
with an honest vote and an honest count a
victory for protection might De expected. These
are three in Alabama, one in Georgia four in
Kentucky, one in Louisiana, one in Maryland,
three in Missouri, two in North Carolina, three
in Virginia and three in West Virginia. But
for reasons stated the only safe course is to
count upon Democratic fraud in all these dis
tricts. The gains necessary to assure Repub-
lican control in the House need to be made in
Northern districts.
1t happens that the Democrats succeeded in
many Northern districts two years ago by very
scanty majorities. In the LIST Connecticut their
majority was but 3i6, and in the IVlh only
321 Scarcely any State is mure deeply inter-
ested in the maintenance Of protection than
Connecticut, and votes thrown away on Pro
hibition and Labor candidates made Demo-
cratic success possible in these two districts
and in the I'D, of which all should be carried
| this year. In the Ist California the Democratic
plurality was 973, and in the lid 1913 and
| Prohibition tickets made success possible in
| both The peril to industries OF California,
and public disgust at the unseating of MIR.
FELTON, in the Vth District, should assure Re-
publican success in both the close districts
| In Illinois the XIIIth District was carried by
| go and the XVIth by $50 plurality, and the
same uprising of voters which defeated Mr.
| Morrison in the Xth District should now carry
these. In Indiana the Democratic plurality
was 532 in the With District, 1888 in the WITH
and ,048 in the XIIIth, and with General
Harrison's popularity and the ardor of the peo-
pie for the cause of protection, victory in these
districts should be easy.
In Iowa the Democrats carried the With Dis
trict by $40, and in Michigan they carried the
With by 447, the With by 814 and the With
by 687. All these districts should be carried
by Republicans, and in Michigan especially
with lumber salt, iron and copper interests a
stake, victories should be easy. In Nlassachu-
sets the Democratic plurality was but 90 in
| tho IYtb and 1855 In the Xth District and in
New-Hampshire only 1O5 in the Ist District
and in New-Jersey only IL 3 in the WITH Dis
trict. In all these districts Republican vic
tories should be assured, and in the WITH
Ohio, which the Democrats hold by only
plurality. There remain five districts in New
York which were carried by scanty Democratic
pluralities, the LIST by 926, the With by 472, thu
With by $50, the Xth by 527, and the XVII
by 46l, and In each Of these a moderate chang
of workingmen would assure success. Th'
XIxth District, with only 1,6oe Democratic