New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1888-11-03
FIGURING OUT A VICTORY.
FAIR ESTIMATE THAT AUGURS WELL
THE pEMocRA ATTIC MAJORITY IN NEw-YoRK CITY
WILL NOT EXCEED $4,000.


WILL NOT EXCEED $4,000.
According to that ancient adsse about the truth
fulness Of figures the Republican ticket VIII receive
at least lO5 900 votes here on Tuesday, ana the
Democratic majority In this county will not exceed
$4,000 majority under any circumstances At least,
such is the conclusion arrived at by Colonel George
Bliss after careful calculation based upon the
results OF tho last two Presidential elections IN Now
York His argument is entirely arithmctical In char
acter and is particularly interesting to every one
a: present.
"Therc arcp he said, o5G,50o names registered
this year If from this registry we make the same
percsnt,c. NJ reduction as TO the actual vote cast,
as in 1854 we find that there will be about 2oo,-
600 ballots cast here on Tuesday. I'm inclined TO
think there will be even a greater reduction 'hai
this owing to the systematic manner In wn'cn ieeai
voters are being followed up by the police ana inc
United States Marshals. In 1884 there were s-''-
600 votes cast. The actual increase, then' Is inc
difference between this number and 100000, or 3s'-
O0O
"Four Years ago. Blaine received 10000 votes,
or 20 ner cent OF the entire number Of ballots cast
II you give the Republicans 40 per cent VI .no
increase and add this to the 10000 votes Vi ioo1'
We have for the Republican candidates ioo,ooo Vo'cS
This OF course, is on the assumption ina. wo sue"
No, ,o.. anv men who voted with US four years
aro. or gain any support from those VINO were oui
n,or.nts IN the last National contest But' Is
ID
a,,ar NJ fact I believe the changes IN our iaVor
I'll, amount TO at least 10000 votes, which wouid
maize our vote not 1o5, 900, but llS'ooo, anu
h,s "a what really believe IL VIII 10
Blu, instead of taking the vote Of 1854, let us .aAe
that Of 1880 There were cast for Garfield IN New.
York tina. wear 81 700 votes, out OF the total Vo'e Vi
oo5 600 or as four years ago, just 40 per cent VI
The entire ballot Subtract the totai Vo'e Vi
eight years ago. eos 900, from the estimated Vo'e
this wear oee 900, and we have $1,000 as inc III
crease since 1880 Oohce"o 'no 49, 49,. W, /,
cent of this TO the Republicans, and what DO we Ge'
rust "a 400 votes which added to tho sl''oo oA''
,or Garfield. gives US 1885, 900, or within rev nun
ared ~ tho result we obtained when ~o 'ooA INC
yo,e ~ ,ss4 as the basis of computation
aNow take tho lowest estimate OK tine hopun
ucan vots los. 0O0 from the estimated totai 'o,o'
ooe 200 and we have ieI 900 votes for other people
ri. ,n this our vote of 10000 again, ana snere
rsma,ns ga 900, the majority for the Democ's's, -
:. 800 N Get all the votes not cast TOT oui H
pr, ercb Is not the case, as there is LABOR eau
d,da,s a prohibitionist and others In tno neu' 70
s,ass ,,s scattering votes, which in 1854 anoun'.a
90 or.r 200 In other words, tho pe"'o. ~".
ms,o,ttv according to these figures, ana nn,.
.nv one will admit they arc perfectly is' reSncsd
CO. above $4,000 in this CITY. WI, " our favor
~ }sso The democratic majority was az tS.r. is
ia IA. oniv increased 1000 in lSs4, ana rortionaly
| reason 70 think their increase Will DO
mall