New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1888-11-19
PREDICTIONS md RESULTS.


PREDICTIONS md RESULTS.
Let there be an end of the silly pretence
that Mr.. Cleveland was beaten by any knliing"
or trading in New-YorlI or Brooklyn. Brook
lvn did little worse for him than his friends ex-
pected but Newly ork little better than they
had any reason to expect. That was partly
because a good many Republican votes have
removed to Brooklyn for residence within the
last four years. South of the Harlem RIVER
10 600 plurality was expected by Republicans
and Cleveland's plurality was 1856. But
Democrats were foolish enough to expect that
the Republican plurality north of the river
was not going to be greater than four or eight
wears ago. Just there the remarkable accuracy
of Republican canvasses was shown, and the
close correspondence of the official returns with
their estimates, made and published before the
election, is conclusive proof that the actual re
suit was not secured by trading or by secret
treachery of Democrats, by bribery or by any
other improper methods.
Before the election the Republican estimate
actually published showed plurality of 8O,95O
north Of the Harlem River, and Democratic
plurality of 70, 900 south of the river. These
were intended to be conservative estimates
safe TO be found within the truth. The actual
Republican plurality north of the Harlem River
according to official returns was 01.Si1. Inc
Democratic plurality south of the river was
only $3.50 larger than the estimate, which IS
particularly close figuring for the crowded pop
ulation of two great cities and for 461, 600
votes. The Republican plurality north OF the
river was 4, 600 more than the estimate as pub
hshed, which was intended to be absolutely
safe. A plurality of IL 900 in the State was
claimed, and a plurality of more than $4,000
was obtained.
The helpful effect of the tariff discussion,
especially during the closing week OF the cam
paign, was little greater north OF the Harlem
River than the Republican canvass had indi-
Gated. Otherwise the result was so precisely
foreshadowed that no person of common sense
comparing the published figures with the Off
cjal returns. can be made to believe in any
potent influence or important change of which
the Republican managers had not known more
than a week before the election occurred. All
the trading and trickery of Election Day and
of the week preceding it, whether there was
much or little, proved practically of no ac-
count The State was won because the voters
north Of the Harlem River gave 80, 600 plu-
rality against President Cleveland and his pol
icy.
South of the river the votes for Cleveland
and Butler in 1884 were 23O,4O8, and for
Blaine 161 ,O92 plurality against Blaine
60.316. This year, with total vote fully
20. 900 larger, which would naturally have
swelled the Democratic ranks AZ 900 against
e nd s0Xy
have brought the Democratic plurality up to
SO, 800, if there had been no gain from that
party. Mr.. Cleveland's actual plurality was
only II ,656, showing loss of nearly 1000.
This loss was so accurately measured before
the election by Republican canvassers that they
placed the plurality at 10000, while the Dem
ocratic committees made it 10000, which
showed that more than half Of the actual loss
was known to them, even when they were
Dragging that "the tariff scarce was doing
them no harm.
But north Of the Harlem River the plurality
for Mr. Blaine in 1884 was 62 i 81 over Cleve-
land alone, and O,875 Butler votes were cast,
while the Prohibition vote was 2 .861. This
year the Prohibition vote was about 1000
larger, drawn mostly from the Republicans.
The Democrats who had voted for Butler were
mainly for Cleveland. Yet instead of the plu-
raity of only $4,000 over Cleveland and But
Ter together north of the river the Republicans
this year have nearly $4,000. The gain in
that part Of the State appears to have teen
about 80, 900, besides enough to compensate
for the Prohibition gain. the increase in
total vote north Of the river was $4,000 Of
which the Republicans would naturally have
gained in plurality 5000. Apparently, hos
tility to President Cleveland and his tariff pol
icy gave the Republicans gain of 80, 600 more.