Los Angeles daily herald., 1888-12-30
INGALLS, INFERENCES.
The Kansas Senator Haunted
by a COlOred Bugbear.
HE FEARS NEGRO SUPREMACY
Absurd Conclusions Drawn From Old
Census Returns-COlOred Increase
Really Diminishing.

Senator Ingalls, says the Negroes are
growing blacker, and that the tendency
Is toward segregation. He advances the
belief that they will take possession O
the South Atlantic and gulf coast.
This statement has revived the dis
cussion of the relative increase of the
white and colored races, the increase o
the colored race under the census of 1886
heipg taken as the text.
When this subject was brought to the
attention of Hon. John T. Henderson,
Commissioner of Agriculture for Georgia,
by the Atlanta Constitution, he said
"The theory built upon the census OF
1880 has been completely upset by pub
locations from this office. Hon. Sam
Barnett, who has studied the figures for
all they were worth, has shown the
utter falacy of the claim that the negroes
are increasing at the rate claimed. |
have the best of evidence to show that
in Georgia the white race shows the
greatest increase, and that the negroes
are really falling behind. Some of the
figures carry with them their own con-
demnation, as is shown in the Com
nonwealth of Georgia."
These enormous estimates put the
colored population in one hundred years
hence at about zoe, 900, 900, i. e., at four
times the whole present population,
white and colored, of the Union. They
consign six or eight colored Southern
States to 100000, 900 of blacks, over
shadowing 3O,OO0,O00 of whites, if, in
deed, the whites do not quit the country.
But is it true in fact? Not at all.
Neither the country nor the South is in
any such danger. A great fabric of de-
lusions is based on errors in the census
of 1870, errors admitted in the census
abstract and palpable enough on their
face. Based on this false foundation, the
calculations, such as they are, run on
this wise By the census of 1870, CAS-
sumed to be correct) the colored popula-
ton of the United States was 4,800, 900 !;
by that of 1880, 6,518,372, showing an
increase of l 1888 1858, or 33 1-2 per cent.
Hence the easy calculation.
On this basis the United States will
contain one hundred years hence more
Africans than Africa herself. The chill
dren Of the persons now living will live
to see the eight doomed States of Vir-
ginia, North Carolina, South Carolina,
Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi
and Louisiana Tin the year 2000) with
278,0O0,000 of blacks. Georgia herself,
in the year 1000, at this rate would have
a colored population Of 40 900, ex-
ceeding the present population of the
Union.
To pass, however, from these wild
figures and sensational conclusions, let
us study the real data and the probable
truth as to the future increase of the
negro race. We must judge Of the fu-
ture by the past. Our means of esti-
mating the future population of the
country are to be found in the ten census
reports, from 1890 to 1880; not
in any two of them, but in
them all Take the experience OF ninety
years first, as a whole. The colored
population has increased from 757 ,207 in
1890 to 6,5lS,372 in 1880. Allowing for
the additions made by the slave trade
till 1SO8-and by the admission Of Flor
ida, louisiana aud Texas-the increase
was 7.6l fold. At this rate the number
ninety years hence, 1870, would be
below $4,000, 900 in the Union, instead
of over 100, 900 900 in seven States.
But the successive returns show q
diminishing rate of increase, in sue
cessive periods. Take the rate between
1860 and 1880 as basis, and the num-
ber 100 years hence, in 1880, would fall
short As ,000,000 But careful compari-
son of the returns shows even this esti-
mate to be too high. We should endeavor
to get the run of the census as basis.
Should the successive rates OF decrease
in ratio be the same for the next 100
years as In the last ninety, the popula-
ton would be about as follows:
Yeer Co,0red pop:
1900 at Al per cent. in 20 years. 9,20O,00O
1920 at 80 per cent. t......-.......... 12,4OO, ,OO0
1910 at 20 per cent. t..........t....d6 IL, 10y, ,OOO
1860 at 25 per cent. t.................2O,15O ~, 900
1880 at 80 per cent nt................24,2 "a zoo, 600
1000 at II per cent. t...............2S, 2S,5OO,oOO
These estimates are at less rate of
decline in ratio than the past series of
like periods of twenty years. It is prob
ably in excess, even if the conditions re-
main unchanged.
Let us correct the error in the census
of 1870 and see the general run of the
recent enumerations The return of 1860
showed colored population of 4, AL 1880
that of 1880, 6,518,372, making an in
crease in twenty years of 46A per cent.
If the rate of increase was uniform,
then in ten years it was 81. IA nearly. At
this rate, the population of 1870 would
be $3.50, 900. An increase over that OF
1860 of 938, ,000 increase from 1870 to
1880, 1,138,000.
An allowance needs to be made in
1850. The increment between 1910 and
1850 was affected by $4,000 colored peo-
pte admitted into Texas The 765, 900
Increment of that decade is therefore re-
duced to 707 1000 of natural increase.
Observe now the successive increments
for a number of successive decades, be-
ginning with 1850, expressed in thou
sands: 707; 803; 938; 1,13S.
This looks like reasonable run. But
az presented in the census of 1870 the
increment for that decade was but 43S,
and for the next decade 1888, making
the run read thus: 707; 803; 438; 1888.
This is wrong on it's face. One decade is
not much over half of the preceding and
not much over one-fourth of the succeed
ing one-an incredible run.
Compare next the successive rates per
cent. of increase for periods of twenty
years, beginning with 1870, 1910, 1880,
&c. They run thus: 82; SO; So; 34-too
erusll. Begin with 1900, 1920, ETC.: 76;
62; 2;MB; AZ. The last line is nearly cor.
rect. The period between 1900 and 1920
shows 10 per cent. This is too much
hut the slave trade swelled it somewhat
There is steady decline in the ratio ol
iincrease. Between 1900 and 1920 it was
rs per cent; between 1860 and 1880, AZ