New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1888-10-19
JrHE4 +.
LIGHT AS TO EXPORTS AND SUPPLIES FOR THE
Cr-pprNr yEkp
New-York, Oct. 10, 1888.

CURRENT YEAR
/ To the or OF me Tribune
Sir: The pr lminary statements Of exports for
the month of September show that 1O,020.3J9
bushels went out from the principal ports, flour
included as wheat, against ,0OS,434 in the same
month last year. Aiding the official net exports
from all ports for July and August, we have total
exports equivalent to 2S,9lO,s77 bushels for the
three months, -four included. against AZ O3O, 1882
for the same months last year. The remaining
exports during the nine months beg ming Dc
tober /, 6s7. were 72,i52,430 bushels. What
surplus for export mains this year9
The estimates Of the Bureau to this years
yield have been varousy interpreted from 401,-
600, 600 to Al 100000 bushels But an important
fact is that, according to its own account, the
estimates of the Bureau are turning out below
the truth rs to winter. and above the truth as TO
spring, wheat States The winter wheat yield is
two-thrds Of the whole. Therefore it is more
probable that the balance Of errors is the side
of decrease and that the crop will prove nearer
the larger 10 her than the smaller of the estimates
With Al j. 0UU. 900 assured bush Is this year and
5l,55s,g10 bushels surplus brought over, accord
ing to computations hitherto publshed-th.s sur
plus being. let it be remembered the excess over
the minimum stock on hand July |, oS2, after the
short crop of .SSl-thcrc would appear to he
supply of 467, S5s, go bushels from which 340,-
80 49, 600 must be deducted for food OF an increased
population at the ordinary rate, and for seed if
the acreage be reconed equal to that OF this year.
This would leave l27,5l9,910 bushels for export
during the crop year, and only 2S,9l Oo77 having
been exported during the first quarter, it would
leave for sport during the remaining nine months
of the crop year 9S 609093 bushels, against actual
exports of 72.4o2,42O bushels in the same months
last year
Two considerations remain to be taken into ac-
count. There is first the expected increase in
the export demand This is based upon the re-
ported shorfness of crops abroad, which is esti-
mated very d.fT,r ntly b. dill rent inter SITS. Bat
there is one thing that all rcusoners are apt TO
forget. Europ, con umpton depends or, ally
upon the condition OF the working population and
the price, and moderate advance always leads to
80 large a consumption of other kinds OF food, IN
stead of wheat bread that the consumption OF
wheat falls oil materially The average decline for
European consumption generally resulting from
considerable rise in price, appears, from such
data as are at command, to be not far from one
busnel per capita The population OF only hive
OF the chef Nheat-importlns countries OF europe
IL l61OOUOUO, ana "A decrease oil Only NAH
bushel per capita would cover the entire repor,ed
decrease in supply outside of the United States
1t is therefore, laliacious to reckon upon an IN
creased foreign demand, If TIE American selling
price is TO be held 20 cents or more above last
years And tie fact is that exports ut current
prices have practically ceased.
he other consideration is that the American
supply is unqucstonaDly OF hight wi gnt. he
extent If this sh, rtage cannot be stated as yet
upon any official information, but estimates range
from four 10 eight pounds per bushel, that Is
from 2s 900 600 TO So 900, 900 bushes of wheat
in quantity by weight III is unqu stionaby
a very I'M portant element. If there W re no her
10 counterbalance il would reduce the eXportable
surplus after October l from 9S,0u0,0OO to
20, OOJ 900, possibly to $4,000 600 bushels But
in this country also changes with
the price though not much as in Europe.
Statistics for the past twenty years lndlcat that
The variation IS as much as half a bushel per
capita II higher pr ccs mainta ned here, there
fore i, is not unreasonable to believe that the
may decline as much as $1,000 200
bushels which would more than over the mini
mum and more than half cover the maAimum
estimates OF shoftness in weight w. NJ u.
New-York, Oct. H. 1888.