The Republican. [volume] (Oakland, Md.) 1877-current, 1888-10-06
New York's Vote.
PHILADELPHIA Press,


Philadelphia Press.
New York State balances on a
knife-edge and for fifty years has
swung from side to side in the pOliti-
cal contests If two generations upon
changes of from l to per cent in its
total vote. The two parties which
under various names have divided
the State have not only been evenly
matched, but their lines are strictly
drawn and political revolutions have
come, not by sweeping changes of
voters, save in one exceptional in-
stance in 1882, but by small changes
whose extent and significance often
escape the scrutiny of skillful and
watchful politicians. There is not
and we think those most familiar
with politics will most strongly agree
with the statement-a State in the
Union which mas been so often
claimed in all sincerity by the astute
and experienced but deceived man.
ayers of one party or the other.
This has been true in election after
election from the day it was lost by
Van Buren, to Harrison to the day it
was carried by Cleveland. In this
great State. with its poll this year of
million and quarter voters, some
eddy of resentment, some ebb of en-
thusiasm, some swing of public feel
ing settles elections year after year
before politicians know what has
come. 1t is this which gives pith
and point to the showing made by
the New York Tribune of the revo-
luton worked in the State by protec-
ton.
Changes like these and not one
tenth as great as these have carried
the State at every one of the trans
fers of its political allegiance. They
were the basis of Tilden's success in
1876. The revolt of wOrkmen in
New York and Brooklyn against a
tariff for revenue only" gave Gar
field the State in 1880. 1t was lost in
1884 by the accident which at the
eleventh hour turned from the party
great bodies of voters who had more
than made up the Mugwump defec-
ton.
To-day the great stream sets one
way and only one way. The eye
schooled in the intricate politics OF
New York State can see that the
changes fall in the counties and tracts
where change is fatal to the party
which feels them. In the debatabe
counties of the Southern tier, where
the Democrats have grown under
shreWd management; in Buffalo,
where they gain in years favorable
20 the party in Troy and Albany,
which are trusted to make up for
losses elsewhere, and in those trusted
districts along the Hudson river and
in the interior, whose vote year after
year stands firm, there are losses
large enough to decide the State. In
Monroe and Oneida, whose Republi-
can majorities generally rise under a
full canvass, the Republican vote
promises to pass all previous record.
In the farming counties, where the
problem always is to bring out the
stay-at-hOme vote and roll up the
majority which will meet the Oppos.
ing tides of New York and Brook
Ign at Harlem river, the Democratic
loss is as significant as it Is great.
This runs over the State, with
names, with clubs and with estimates.
Such a showing has a weight of its
own in State carried by 1,O48 four
years ago, and in which no majority
but one in sixteen years has been
over per cent of the vote. and most
have been under per cent and more
than half under 2 per cent. We must
frankly say that our only fear is that
this splendid showing will breed
fatal confidence. The last month. the
last fortnight, and, in 1884, the last
tive days of hot canvass nave more
than once seen New York carried by
party defeated in the earlier stages
of the canvass Tho O6dS ORC 70 d,,,
all for Harrison and Miller in New
York State; but the election will be
settled only when the last vote of the
full Republican strength is in the
ballot-box on election day. The State
can be carried. even now, only by
canvass which polls every vote.