Omaha daily bee., 1888-08-10
The Doubtful States.

tOral vote is 81. The democratic party,
in order to be successful, must have in
addition TO the 1913 votes of the southern
states those OF New York and Indiana,
or of New York, New Jersey and Con-
necticut. The present aspect of the
situation in the doubtful states is inter-
esting.
AS to Indiana, it is probable that
the majority Of intelligent dem
ocrats do not regard il as
doubtful. They must under
stand that the chances in that state are
very largely against them, not wholly
because Of the state pride which willin
duce a considerable number of demo-
Gratis to vote for their fellow-citi2en,
but for the reason also that the Indiana
democracy is not organized to win, and
is not likely to be owing to strong fac
tional differences. There is no enthu-
siasm among Indiana democrats for Mr..
Cleveland, and there probably will DO
none. The recent speech of Senator
Voorhees, did not help their situation,
and the efforts they have made to win
over the colored vote and the labor
vote have not been encouragingly sue
~cessful. The Independent vote has de-
serted them, the soldier vote will be sol
idly arrayed against them, and it is
said that many farmers who have al
ways voted the democratic ticket will
cast their votes for the republican can
didates in November. The republicans
OF Indiana are already well organized,
and SO far as appears harmonious.
There was an excellent spirit shown at
h late state convention, and the nomi-
nation of General Hovey, who is rep
resenting the First district in congress,
is regarded as the wisest choice that
could have been made. He ought to
have no difficulty in defeating the
demagogue Matson, the democratic cam
didate for governor. Four years ago
Cleveland's plurality in Indiana was u
little over six thousand, but two years
ago the state was carried
by the republicans under the
leadership OF Harrison. 1t is
therefore obvious that all the present
conditions are such us to warrant great
confidence in republican success in In
diana.
The situation in Connecticut is most
reassurlng to republicans. The lead
ing democratic paper of that state warns
its party Of the danger. and assures it
that extraordinary efforts will be neces-
sary to carry the state for the democratic
candidates. The w~orkingmen who have
hitherto acted with the democracy are
manifesting a very earnest disposition
to abandon that allegiance, and it would
not require a very large detection from
this element to give the six electoral
votes of Connecticut to the repub-
licaus. The state gave a plu-
rality for Cleveland of 1,2S4, and
the present democratic governor was
elected by a plurality of 1888. A
change of a thousand votes will there
fore be sufficient TO give the state to the
republicans, and the present indications
are that the change will be much
greater than this.
The republican outlook in New Jersey
is also far from unfavorable, though the
situation in that state is a good deal
complicated. The fact that General
Fisk, the prohibition candidate for
president, is a New Jersey man and
very popular in the state, is the strong
est circumstance adverse to the republi-
cans. In 1886 Fisk received as the pro-
hibition candidate for governor nearly
twenty thousand votes, the demo-
cratic candidate being elected by
a plurality of eight thousand.
The democrats estimate that this
year Fisk's vote will be from fifteen to
twenty-five thousand, three-fourths of
it drawn from the republicans. In a
presidential year, however, voters are
under different influences than those
which effect them in other years, and it
is quite possible and even very probable,
that the prohibition vote in New
Jersey will not be more than half this
year what it was two years ago.. In that
event the transfer Of votes would be
largely in favor OF the republicans,
and n small detection from the demo-
Gratis, altogether likely on the tariff is
sue, would give the state to the repub-
lican candidates. On the whole. how
ever, the chances as they appear at
present are most largely in favor of the
democracy carrying New Jersey, which
in 1880 gave Hancock a plurality
Notwithstanding the fact that he de-
clared the tariff question to be simply a
local issue, and continued steadily demo-
cratic until last year, when the republi-
ans carried the legislative election,
having a plurality of less than three
| thousand votes.
1t is by no means necessary to con-
cede New York to the democracy, but
discussion of the probabilities in that
state can be had more judiciously after
the democrats have nominated their
candidate for governor. Meanwhile the
outlook for republican success in Indi-
n and Connecticut is most favorable,
and with these two states the party can
win the presidency.
In the Interest of M~oonshiners.
A provision of the Mills tariff bill pro-