St. Paul daily globe. [volume] (Saint Paul, Minn.) 1884-1896, 1888-10-18
HOW 1T LOOKS.

Now that we are within twenty days
of the election, one can stop TO take
careful survey of the field with the
| prospect of making something like an
intelligent forecast of the result. That
the contest is an evenly balanced one is
evident from the earnestness with
! which each side is claiming victory, and
| yet it is not safe to put too much re-
| lance in the estimates furnished by
| either side.
1t is recognized in every quarter that
| the party which wins in this fight will
be installed in power for a long time,
because the battle is being waged on
principle. If the Republicans succeed,
it will be accepted by the country as a
popular verdict in favor of an indefinite
| perpetuation Of the existing tariff. If
the Democrats succeed, it will be con-
strued to mean that the nation must re-
| form its tariff system and reduce the
taxes to a revenue basis as rapidly as
can be done without indicting injury
upon the industries of the country.
These facts are we'll enough understood
by every voter in the land, notwith-
standing the efforts made by partisan
leaders to obscure them. Hence the
result of the national election, which
ever way it may go, will be accepted as
the final determination of our national
policy with regard to taxation.
Its no wonder, then, that there should
now be such universal interest mani
Tested in the probable result of the
election. Up to this time there has
been so little opportunity to obtain any
thing like a popular expression from
any particular section of the country,
the situation has been clouded. Maine
is the only state where local election
has been held in advance of the ma
tiOnal election. The advantages re-
Sulting from that election were all with
the Democrats. 1t demonstrated that the
protection idea had made no progress in
a locality where all the conditions for
expansion existed. The municipal cleo
ton in the city of Newark, where there
are large manufacturing interests. and
where the influence of New York pol
1ticS is felt, was still more discouraging
to the Republicans. The lessons learned
from the elections in Maine and New
ark are that the American system of
protection is not as popular as it was
four years ago. 1t can now be stated
with reasonable certainty that if the
campaign were Invested of all its compli-
Gated and entangling features, and there
should be submitted to a popular vote
the single proposition of whether the eX-
listing tariff should be perpetuated, or the
Democratic idea of tariff reform as en-
bodied in President CLEvELAND's last
annual message, be adopted in its stead,
the result would be overwhelmingly in
favor of the Democrats. But under
our electoral system questions of this
kind cannot be decided by popular
vote. 1t must be determined in the
electoral college. Hence the battle is
being concentrated in a few states,
where party divisions are so even that
sometimes mere chance or unforeseen
accident turns the scale. Consequently
New York and Indiana again become
the battle ground in this most important
national campaign since 1860. The Re-
publican chances for carrying Connect
icut and West Virginia, the only two
other Democratic states where they have
a show, are more than cOunterbalanced
by the Democratic prospects in Michi-
gan and California.
Thus everything is made to depend
upon the results i'll New York and in
Indiana. The Republican claim of adj
vantage in these states is based upon
the factiOnal fight among the Democrats
in New York city, and upon the fact
that Indiana is the home state of their
presidential candidate. To a diSinter-
eSted observer of the fight, however, it
must occur that the very conditions
upon which the Republicans rely are
really the strongest elements of danger
to their cause. The factional fight in
New York means the polling of the full
Democratic vote. The quarrel between
Tammany and the County Democracy
will bring out every Democrat in New
York city on election day, and every
one of them, whether he be a Tam
manyite or a Hewittite. will vote the
national ticket straight. A full and
united Democratic city vote on the ma
tional ticket means a majority for
CLEVELAND and THURMAN of from
$4,000 to $4,000 in the state.
1t must also occur to diSinterested
observer of the contest that HARRIsON's
residence in Indiana has been an ele-
ment of weakness rather than of
strength to him. From the day of his
nomination down to this time there has
not been single Indiana Democrat
who has aYowed his intention of sup
porting HARRISON. On the other hand,
it is well enough understood that the
friends of Judge GRESHAM and Gov.
PORTER retain vivid recollection of
HARRIsON'S selfish conduct toward
them, and they are not helping him
now. Indiana is Democratic state, and
there is nothing in Gen. HARRIsON's
candidacy to induce it to SWeTYe from
its Democratic allegiance.
So that a fair summing up of the
situation twenty days in advance of the
election reveals an almost absolutely
certain Democratic victory. There is
nothing IN the range of probability that
can reverse the situation within the
next twenty days. Yet the result of an
election in this country. like the verdict
of petit jury, is one of those things
beyond the reach of finite foreknowl-
edge.