New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1888-05-21
WHEAT.
WHEAT.
A POSSIBLE DEFICIENCY UNLESS FOREIGN nr.
MASDs DIMINISH

WHEAT.
POSSIBLE DEFICIENCY UNLESS FOREIGN DE.
MANDs DIMINISH
TO the Editor OF The Trtbun.
Sir For nearly six years the facts have constantly
indicated the existence Of a large surplus OF wheat
The prospect now is that tho quantity available for or
port during the next crop year will DO smaller than Il
has been this year. and not much greater than the
actual exports during the crop year 1ss4'e5. In
this estimate the latest report OF tho Agricultural Blu
reau as to the condition Of winter wheat Is taken
as basis, without allowance for resolving or for in
crease or decrease in acreage of spring wheat For
these ltems, allowance will have to be mado in the
light Of later information.
Carefully reokonsd by States, the Bureau estimate
Of acreage and condition OF winter wheat points TO
yield Of 241 1856 900 bushels, with the understand
Ing, OF course, that there Is wide margin for i'm
provomen for further Injury Tho present prospect,
then, Is that the yield will be 51,012 900 bushels
smaller than that of last year There IA much confusion
In tho later reports, but II is natural that Improve
ment in some quarters may be balanced by less favor
able conditions elsewhere. Nor Is there sufficient
evidence yet to warrant expectation Of much In
crease In spring wheat acreage, Notwithstanding tho
natural growth in regions where new railroads wcro
opened last year. In other quarters the wet weather
and lstsncss OF tho have prevented wheat SOW
Ing to extent, and tho balance Of evidences thus
far does not justify estimate In excess OF last years
yield, 1863, 462 900 bushels. II the recent advance
In price causes more resolving Of wheat than usual
whore injury has occurred, greater increase Of
acreage In spring wheat regions the nsxt report Oh the
Bureau should give notice of the fact.
The surplus carried from this year. as mattoFs
now stand Is likely to DO forty million bushels
as follows The total supply, including last years
bushels OF which about 333, 100000 bushels were re
qursd for seed and food Net exports for nine months
',rlc.al and complete were % 65O.b9e bushels ana
the AprI statement gives exports OF whoat ana houf
equivalent to 1851, 216 bushels wheat. making iVor
007 sI2 bushels exported After May i, 2t2lsoo9
bushels went out last year. but the demand has pesh
slack OF ato and tho price hos so advanced that the
total OK ports for the crop year likely not to OK
coed I30oO0,oOO bushels. That would leave on haha
July I'm excess OF the minimum Stock never rechoneu'
about Al ,3ss 900 bushels. .o., .. =.
II tho total supply for the next year proves 70 o00
no greater than those figures indicate say 44o'
bushels tho requirement for food and seed VIII 10
about $40 900, 900 bushels, leaving less than loi
600 900 bushels for export To sell that quan'sy VI
price for II as possible, will require more gooa s9e
and sclfcontrol than the markets have SHOWN Vi iAo
years. The chances that prices wiz DO pay %
high as TO permit competing countries 10 narhe. nse
whatever they have to sell. as usual anu III 'hs' oo
q disastrous tumble in prices may result ,,,. A..
1t is entirely within ths bounds OF POSSIBILITY ,a'
good weather may give the country islser suppy'
but II Is entirely possible that ory summer,
following tho unusual rains and SHOWS OF thc pas
three months may reduce tho Yield below these es-
mates, that there is reason Tor watohlns ti.a a
conditions and tho prospect Of foreign cfops tu' g0~
with moro interest than usual W. NJ u
New-York, May 10, 1888.