St. Paul daily globe. [volume] (Saint Paul, Minn.) 1884-1896, 1888-09-01
THE TRADE OUTLOOK.
Speculative Activity Not a Healthy
Sign

Sign.
NEW YORK Aug. SIR. G. Dun & Co.'S
weekly review of trade will say: Within
the past few days crop reports have become
exceedingly contradictory and confusing.
Dispatches by the score are published assert
ing that frOsts hive cut down the yield of
spring wheat greatly, especially IN Dakota
and Minnesota, and at the same time the gov
eminent weather bureau atiirmS that the
weather has been most favorable, and that
reports of injury from frost are greatly eX-
aggerated Reports from France that the
last years contrast with an official
statement that the decrease will not be z per
cent Such confusing accounts from all
quarters have helped a very active specula-
tion, with sales of SO, COCOON bushels here,
and a net decline in price Of only half a cent
for the week. These facts lead to the sus-
piciOn that gloomy reports are being used to
unload speculative burdens, and that the
actual outcome will not fall much below pre-
vious estimates. Corn is a fraction lower,
with sales of 100000 bushels, and oats
8 cents higher with some activity.
In provisions. also, there has been
active speculation, an advance, and
a reaction. Hogs remain 10 cents higher.
oil has risen Sc, and leather and hides are
l2c higher. Tin has weakened, but copper is
stronger and lead has been hoiSted I2c. Cof-
fee has sold largely for speculahon-267,0 900
bags at New York; bushel prices halt and
the distribution slackens. Sugar is IN
changed, with better but not full demand
for refined. An active trade and stronger
prices are noted in hops The dry goods mar
ket has been active, and even buoyant, with
print cloths stiff at 4c, but sole descriptions
of brown sheetings are weak, and the market
for woolens is still irregular and uncertain.
Speculation has raised the price of cotton
dc per 100 lbs with sales of POI 900 bales at
New York, in spite of favorable crop ad
vices. The average price of all commodities
moves upwards steadily, having adj
vanced about y per cent. for the
-,Alv nj nnTNF csNn To-,
80. 1t is hardly necessary topoint out
that this speculative activity, particularly in
eXportable products, is not very healthy
sign. If crops are really poor, business must
suffer in consequence, and prices are merely
inflated without reason, the inevitable reac-
ton Will do harm. The immediate effect is
that exports continue small; from New York
for the past four weeks they have fallen
16l2 per cent below last years IN value,
though prices are higher. The heavy excess
of imports over exports in July and for six
months ending with July appears TO have
created large adverse balance, which will
require liberal exports of merchandise or of
specie, sooner or later But at present for
eign exchange is steady, and the belief that
exports of products will be as large in spite
of high prices still controls the
market. Speculation in stocks has
been moderately active and strong
for the partial reactions have not come to
much, for the advance in the active stocks
has now exceeded 80 per share on the aver
age, ana sui the market does not broaden,
nor is the public helping. Sales by foreign
holders have not been large enough to effect
results materially, but a feeling of uncer-
tainty is noticeable. The treasury has taken
in S., 900, 600 more than il has paid out this
week, but supplies of money are abundant
here, and there are no reports of serious
pressure anywhere. Reports from all parts of
The country continue encouraging; even from
the Northwest, where speculative accounts
dwell upon damage to crops, the usual re-
ports to the mercantile agency, but consid-
cradle injury from rains is reported at Mem
phis. AT all interior points business is &C
tive for the season and there is unusual uni
formity in the report that orders for goods
are increasing. At some points collections
are fairly good, but much greater number
of reports note more. than usual hardness
for the season, and complaints are general.
The state OF speculative markets tends to
prevent farmers from sending forward their
products promptly, and at the South resist
anee of producers to the exactions of the
cotton bagging trusts keeps back stocks
yet there is noticeable increase in conf
dence as TO the immediate future of business
in almost every quarter from which reports
are received, and banking returns show q
continued increase in exchanges in part, of
course, because of greater speculative activ-
ity The business failures throughout the
country during the last seven days number,
for the United States 202, Canada "a; total,
226, as compared with a total of pa last
week, and 2l9 the week previous to the last
For the corresponding week of last year the
figures were 1919, Us in the United States
and % in Canada. In August the failures in
the United States numbered 972 against III
last wear