Telegram-herald., 1888-11-19
A SHORTAGE IN WHEAT
plLLsBURY or Tne SITUATION
he Compates the Amount of the Crop and
shows . Great DeEcIeacy-i Dakota
Crop osiy Hsif ss Large ss Usual
The European Crop AisO short

Pillsbury the largesl miller i8 the world
and whose enosmos purchases oi wheat
necessarily very greatly affect ;he market
Las issued = confidential c-feuisf giving his
views on the -four and wheat situation.
MIssEAPoLIs. Mimi. NOV. i2.-Our GUS
toners are frequently asking Us Why We
are believers IN higher prices for wheat sud
nour We are 50 because the statistical pc
sition is 20 strong that ne believe ls Will
soon force prices 70 very much higher
level than pfesent prices. independent Os
any SPECULATION. The crop ia Min
nesOts and Dakota last year was 100 OOO.OOJ
bushels Ofthi. amount 20.OOe 600 bushels
were usen fer local consumption and seed
and : SOOO 200 were exported IN the Shape OF
wheat leaving 7Z.OOOOOO bushels Which
were ground Ia this country, aE the amount
on hand Sept J. 1888. was 81 least no larger
than the amount on hand Sept. !, 1857.
This wheat would make about l. 600 90
barrels OF -four OF this amount, al the
outside, not over 5000 0O0 barrels were eI-
ported leaving at least 1900 600 barrels for
local consumption, or jnst about 1000, 900
barrels per month. Estimates OF the last
crops OF Minneso and Dakota ran from
81. 600 600 10 IS 900 OOU bua beis. To be con
seryatiye, we will take IL for granted that
the crop was 5000, 900 bushels. although
we have ne idea il was ss much as this.
Deducting read and seed, at least 10000
0O0 bushels, we should have LETT a surplus
for merchant millers Of $4,000 600 bushels.
A conservative estimate is that at least
5000. 600 bushels Of the crop are only poor
screenings and will never be ground into
-four. Deducting this We should have left
40, GOO 600 bushels al the very outside TO sup
ply the milling demand against 1900 coo
bushels last year.
At low estimate the merchant mills
that have been running on Minnesota and
Dakota wheat. have been grinding at the
rate of /. 760. 600 bushels per week since
September l. and have already ground
u 5000 0O0 bushels in that time. II is Ger
tain that they will grind IN the next three
weeks at least 20 per cent. of what they
have been grinding, ss wheat will be plenty
enough during this period. This would take
1900, goo more, or total consumption of
p 100000 bushels in thirteen weeks. and
would leave. according to our figures, a sup
ply of p 5000, 600 for the remaining thirty
nine weeks ca the year, or little less than
one third per week Of the supply they have
been using for the past ten weeks.
Continuing be saws: If we have not
underestimSted the yield OF wheat. nor the
amount to be consumed by the mills 10
| December l. there would be left on hand
| January /, provided no flour was made dur
| ing the month of December. wheat enough
| to make 100000 barrels of flour at the
| outside probably not over 1900. 600 barrels.
| Allowing that only 1000 900 of this is ex-
| ported. OF the lower grades ot -four (and
| this is q very low estlmste), il would leave
| a. our outside figures for home consumption.
| 4.lOO, 600 barrels of flour, or a supply oi
| about 100000 barrels per month, as against
an average supply of 100000 per month
| for the SIX teen months preceding January
| /, 1880.
| Mr.. Pillsbury does not believe that the
| winter W heat miilers will be in any cOndi-
| ton to supply the deficiency. The winter
| wheat crop this year was 25, 000. 900 to so.
| 000, ,000 bushels short of last year. and even
| last year they hvd all they could do TO get
| enough heat TO supply their customers
| during the last four months of that year.
| He gees on 10 saw:
| The writer return ed from Europe only
| ten weeks since. and has not obtained bis
| information second hand The crops there
are way below any OF the published esti-
/ mates that any government Is willing "a
| give out. They estimate that they are 10
| receive over lCO goo coo bushels from the
| United States on this crop and s0O0,O6l
| from Csnsds. They will not receive 90 per
! cent Of this am cunt. Taking their own
eIsggersted figures of their own croD. and
their exaggerated figures of what they will
| receive from Canada, Russia, the United
States India and other countries, they car
not fsure oct but what they have big
shortage, but when you lake their actual
wants into account. and the actual supply
OF exporting countries, the deficiency II
4 enormous.
| Mr.. Pulsbury closes by saying that there
| have been several little squalls IN prices.
He predicts cyclone in prices next sum
mer.