The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1888-08-01
ANTICIPATING THE CROPS.
Row Information is Given OF the
Probable Yield,
From the Washington Star.

From the Washington Star.
Washington is not exactly an agricultural
center. 1t is doubtful whether any consld-
cradle amount of wheat, corn, rye, barley,
potatoes or tobacco is raised here Yet II is
Washington, and not the great agricultural
regions of the west, the brokers watch to
learn the condition of the crops. Chicago,
as well as New York, sends here to know
what the condition of the wheat crop is,
and there is rivalry as to which shall get
the desired information first.
The great stock and produce exchanges
of New York and Chicago understand that
the price of grain and other products, and
the value of railroad stock, in measure,
are affected by the bulletins issued by the
physician here who feels the pulse of the
growing crops throughout this country and
abroad. This man watches the growth OF
the crop and repor upon its physical con-
dition at various stages of its development;
and finally, toward the period of its pro
ductiveness, predicts how fruitful it will be-
All the great business centers are deeply
interested in these bulletins and the mar
kets influenced 10y them, and in this way
Washington holds much more important
position III the commercial world than 1t Is
commonly thought to.
THE MAN WHO WATCHES THE SYMPTOMS
of the crops SO closely is Mr.. J. r. Dodge,
the statistican of the department Of agri-
culture. Tue work of the statistical divi-
sion Of the department Is quite interesting,
and the report upon the crops issued on the
tenth of each month gives the most reliable
information TO be had on this subject. AS
near as can be ascertained, the estimates Of
the crops made there before the harN est is
only fraction out of the way at any time.
Toward the last Of July MIR. Dodge can
generally tell With tolerable accuracy what
the amount of all the principal products of
the country will be. He looks over the
whole tield-through the agents of the de-
partment-ahd secs how at every stage Of
its growth the cotton, the tobacco, the
wheat or the corn is progressing, and by the
application of figures and experience he Is
enabled to make the estimates.
HOW THE WORK is DONE.
This work costs the government but
little, and is of great commercial value.
More than 5000 men are scattered all over
the country watching the crops, talking to
the farmers aud collecting information.
1t is upon this information that the depart
ment estimates are made, In each of z, 300
counties there is one Inspector and three or
four assistants. They watch the crops with
the greatest care, and each month report
their condition, whether or not the season
is favorable, ETC., to the department.
They are not paid for this work, and
this fact is thought by the department to
be in the interest of exactness of report,
as well as of economy. If they were paid
at all, half million dollars a year would
give them very small salaries, and there
would probably be- scramble to get the
places for incompetent men to whom that
little would be a temptation. The de-
partment prefers to make these offices
places Of distinction and to thus
secure the services of the leading farm
ers Of each section. The most experienced
men available are engaged, and there is a
very general Willingness or desire to furnish
the needed information. Blanks are fur
nished by the department for the monthly
report, and the agents are familiar enough
with the subject to know just what is
wanted. They go right out into the field
and look for themselves and talk with
other farmers where ever they meet, SO
that practically the whole community
becomes agents for the department. Each
month the chief agent receives the report
of his assistants, complies them, makes his
calculation and from the information thus
acquired he makes up his report, Twenty
three hundred of these reports are re-
ceived each month at the department
From them a careful estimate is made by
Mr. Dodge, and his report at the end of the
month is the result Of a careful considera-
ton of all the information so assembled
In order to get u correct average it is neces-
sary not only to get the statement of the
condition of the crop in each county, but to
ascertain what relation the usual produc-
ton i'll each county bears to the whole. A
short crop IN counties of large production
would greatly reduce the average of the
whole country, while much smaller crop
in an unlmpOrtant district would have
scarcely any effect at all
APPARENT DECREASE IN ACREAGE.
Another thing that has to be taken into
account is a very general disposition in
farmers to make it appear that their acre
age is less than it is. Mr.. Dodge says that
il the reports of the famers were relied upon
in this particular the apparent de-
crease in acreage per year would
be at such rate that in a few years 1t
would appear that there was no planting
done at ali. This is probably due to the
instructive desire on the part of the planters
to make the number of bushels per acre APP
pear as great as possible. Allowance has
to be made for these things, and after
twenty-five years at the work Mr.. Dodge
knows about what per cent. of misstatement
to allow for. Whom talking of acreage the
average farmer is about 20 per cent a
fbber. The true acreage must be ascer-
tanned by comparing the amount of product
with the average yield per acre.
THE STATE AGENT.
Besides the $500 agents who report to the
department each month there is Estate
agent" in each state, who gets the estimates
from his assistants about as Mr. Dodge does
here, and the result OF his work is sent to
the department for notification. These
state reports seldom differ far from the re-
suits arrived at in the department
received from the department agent
in Europe, and correspondence is con-
stantly going on with agricultural societies,
etc. The information thus acquired shows
with almost absolute accuracy what the
crops will be, and from that notion may
be reached as to how the prices will be;
and also the amount of carrying trade is
indicated with its effect upon the railroad
earnings. A great effort is always made in
the interest of brokers to get the earliest
information from the department for their
guidance in specializing False reports are
often circulated, and attempts have been
made indirectly to influence the results of
these estimates
WRONG PREDICTIONS.
Some yeare ago the wheat dealers in Chi
cago made their own calculations from tho
earlier reports and what other information
they could get, and found that the crop was
going to be very short. They at once
bought up ali the wheat they could
get, and then tried in every way they
could to spread the impression of
a short crOp and M infuauca tha