Omaha daily bee., 1888-08-21
The Outlook in Iowa.

Inc OUTLOOK In iowa,
Some Of the democratic managers aud
organs profess to believe that their
party has more than fighting chance
in Iowa this year. Their hope is based
in part upon tie expectation that the
prohibition vote will be materially in
creased, drawing chiefly from the re-
publicans. They also count upon gain
ing some of the farmer vote, hitherto
republican, on the tariff issue. 1t is
understood to be the intention OF the
democratic national campaign man
ayers to give u great deal OF attention
to Iowa. Governor st. John has al
ready been heard at several points
in the state in the interest of
democracy, and doubtless he and
other advocates Of prohibition whom the
democratic managers can confde in will
do further service in the state as the
campaign progresses. The democratic
policy regarding the tariff is also to be
very fully set forth by speakers selected
by the national committee. Among
these ex-Congressman Frank Hurd, OF
Ohio, the earnest champion OF free
blttNlC, 10 dlltduy uhuci ShS tS ShiSho w
explain tho democratic tariff policy to
the people of several states where the
democratic managers think there
is hope of accomplishing some
thing, including Iowa. The
republicans of the Hawkeye state must
not, therefore, prevent their zeal and
activity to suffer from over-confidence.
Ia ipc ctrnptivn tn rnfnr tn thp
figures of lowa's vote for the past eight
years. In 1880 the state gave Garfield
| plurality of rs, ,059, the republican vote
| in that year having been 1873, ,90i and the
democratic vote 105,Si5. In 1884 Mr..
Blaine's plurality was 1876, the repub-
| lcan vote having been 1877 ,OS2 and the
democratic vote 177,2S6. 1t will thus
be seen that in the four years
| between the last two presidential
| elections the republican vote of
| Iowa increased only 13,l7S, while
| the democratic vote increased II AL, or
more than five to one. Two years later,
neither party having polled its full vote,
the republican plurality was 14,712, and
last year the plurality of the republican
candidate for governor was 16, 100, the
vote of both parties being again largely
under their full strength. The pro-
hibition vote in 1887 was IA, ,499
The increase in the total vote OF the
state for the four years between the last
two presidential elections was, in round
figures, $1,000, and it is probably safe to
say that it has not been less dur
ing the last four years, in which
case the vote next November should
be about 430, 900. Allowing the prohibi-
tionsts 10000 votes, and it is not prob
able thcy will get more than this, but
very likely less, and there remain 410,-
600 to be divided between the republican
and democratic parties, it being assumed
that the labor candidates will not re-
ceive sufficient number of votes to cut
any figure. On this basis, if the repub-
licans have made no greater gain dur
ing the last four years than they did be-
tween 1880 and 1884 they are still rea-
sonably safe, as that small gain would
insure them u vote in November of
100000, but there is reason to nppre-
hend that they have not made even
this meagre increase. Dividing equally
between the republican and democratic
parties the assumed increase in the to-
tai vote for the last four years and it
gives the latter probable vote of 204,-
600. Out Of the estimated total vote of
430 900 must be taken the prohibition
vote, which if no greater than last year,
say $1,000, would leave the republican
| plurality at only II O0O
1t is obvious, therefore, that the re-
publican margin in Iowa is not SO large
as to warrant a sanguine confidence, or
to justify any neglect of the party in
that state either by the home leaders or
those in charge of the national
campaign. 1t is apparent that demo
cratic hope respecting Iowa is not with
out some reason, and that the efforts
which the managers of that party in.
tend to put forth in the state must be
met by equally vigorous efforts on the
part of the republican managers. II
this be done and maintained to the end
of the campaign the result will not be
doubtful, but there is danger if republi.
can zeal and labor shall be permitted tc
lag. The instructive figures we pre-
sent, and the suggestions they convey
should receive the very serious consid
GRAFTON OF all Iowa republicans.
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