, 1888-11-05
A LOOK AHEAD.
Three Eastern States Politically
Reviewed.
New York Will Give Cleveland
an Increased Plurality.
New Jersey Sure, but Connect
cut Debatable Ground.

A CHICAGO, Nov. A New York spe
cial to the Chicago Herald says: Only
three Eastern states-New York, Con
n%ecticut and New Jersey can in any sense
be called doubtful. But all the indica'
lions are that New York will go Demo.
cratic by a handsome plurality. New
JERSEYS vote will surely be cast tor Cleve-
land and Thurman. Connecticut is good
fighting ground. There can be nc doubt
that at the very lowest estimate Cleveland
in this state has twenty chances in a hun
dred moro than Harrison. The Demo
uf carrying Connecticut, and the Repub-
1icans lave little or none of carrying New
Jersey, but neither committee cares much
for these two states. The Republicans
know that if they carry New York Gen.
Harrison is elected, while the Democrats
believe that Indiana is pretty sure to go
for Mr.. Cleveland, and that they will not
need either of the two smaller Eastern
doubtful states. A difference of 10000
Votes turned from one side to the other
will be enough to reverse the result in the
whole three states.
New Jerseys result can be predicted
more easily han can the result in either
New York or Connecticut. The betting,
which, though it does not tell how a state
will go, shows the way people think 1t will
go, is at larger odds on Cleveland in New
Jersey than in any other Northern state.
Bets of four to one have been made that
Cleveland will carry the state.
There are several reasons for the Demo
cratic confidence, and each of them has a
good basis. New Jersey has steadily
given Democratic majorities, even when
New York failed, The population of the
Democratic parts of the state, especially.
Jersey City, has been steadily increasing,
and the Democratic vote increases in
proportion. The Republican legislature
passed two laws. over the governors veto
which are particularly obnoxious to the
large cities of the state, and which give
the bulk of the Democratic majority.
lone bill became a law which compels all
the voters of Newark and Jersey City,
with their suburbs, to be registered, while
the rest of the state has no such ~restric-
ton placed upon the exercise of the suf-
trage. This has increased the voters of
these cities, and as Eastern Democrats
will always take more trouble to get in
their votes than Eastern Republicans
will take, the effect of the law has been
10 keep more Republicans from voting
than Democrats. This is contrary to the
expectations of the Republican legisla-
ture, which expected that the total vote
of the two cities would be reduced by the
passage of a registration law. On the
contrary, the vote is larger than ever be-
fore.
Another thing which will increase still
more the Democratic vote in the cities is
the high license law which the last Re-
publican legislature passed, and which
turned Newark over to the Democrats at
the last charter election. The Germans
of New Jersey formerly voted with the
Republicans, but this high license law is
driving them out of the party. The Re-
publicans had one object in passing this
law which they may accomplish. The
term of Senator Mcpherson expires next
year and the coming legislature will elect
IBIS successor. Congressman William
Walter Phelps and ex-senator Sewell are
competitors for his place on the Republi.
can side. They are making a fight for
members of the legislature, and as the
Temperance sentiment is chiefly in the
rural counties they expect to gain a num-
Der OF assemblymen there on the high IL
cense issue, while they cannot lose many
~assemblymen in Jersey City, where they
have not many to lose. As the possession
of the next senator is more important
TO the Republican party than the electoral
vote of the state, which they can do
without if they carry either Connecticut
and Indiana or New York, they are max
ing their fight mainly to secure control of
sthe next legislature. and the national
%eanvass is neglected by comparison.
Connecticut, naturally, would give a
slight Democratic plurality, enough to
give the presidential electors to the Dem
bcrats, but not enough to give the Demo
crats the governor. There is an unfair
arrangement in Connecticut by which it
lakes a majority vote to elect a governor,
hud as the Democrats have not a majority
pver all the candidates running, the Re.
3oublicars are certain to win, as the Con-