Omaha daily bee., 1888-08-26
THE WHEAT CROP.
A Leading French Dealer Predicts
Very High Prices.

tCopvright 1888 bp James Gordon Bennett.l
PARIS, August 25.-[New York Herald
Cable-Special to THE BEE. "A leading
member of the largest wheat firm in Paris
furnished the representative of the Herald
yesterday with valuable information regard
ing the present crisis in wheat.
ave have foreseen this trouble for weeks"
he began, land our conviction as to the i'm
minence of higher prices was so firm that
month ago we began buying large guam
titles of wheat in American markets for
which we paid more than the same article
would bring here in France. At that
time many dealers thought us mad,
but they think so no longer. We have at
present on hand about 200, 900 quarters and
we are still buying. month ago few houses
were able or willing to risk half million
dollars on the.truth of the pessimistic pre-
dictions of European wheat growers. We
were almost alone in acting on these ad-
vices. We have had no reason to regret our
action. This crisis is genuine because the
causes producing it are natural. Nor is the
full magnitude of the deficiency of the
wheat harvest yet appreciated. With
in the past few days the reports
of growers all over France are
| to the effect that the threshing now going on
and which is the only real test, is demon
| strating that the condition of things is much
| more serious than they had supposed. The
| shortage in France alone, as compared with
last year, will be not less than G, ,0CO 900 quar-
| ters. This is due, of course, to the unprece-
dented bad weather with the continued cold
and unceasing rains England has been even
harder off and will have to import this year
an excess, at least, of 100000 quarters
over her imports of a year ago.
The shortage in Italy will be
| 5000, 900. quarters and in Germany 3,O0O,-
600 quarters, making in all Europe shortage
of certainly 100000 quarters, which will
have to be supplied from Russia, India, Aus
tralia and America.
LET us look, then, at the wheat markets in
the different countries. The Australian crops
have been good, but they are of little i'm
portance from their limited extent In India
Il
ripen the wheat have been wanting, and
unless they spring up in September
the Indian crop will be failure.
Even assuming this harvest satisfactory,
| Hindoo merchants, with their characteristic
shrewdness, are disposed to hold back the
surplus wheat of last year, in expectation of
q still further rise. Therefore, India cannot
be counted on NJ present to relieve the situa
tion. There remains Russia and the United
States where wheat crops have been up to
the average, in spite of interested reports to
the contrary. AS said, we began giving
orders in both these markets months ago
Other French houses, more timid than our
selves, began buying about two
weeks ago and within the last few
days there has been general
excitement has been produced IN the United
States, where prices have already advanced
nearly 10 per cent In France the rise has
amounted to about 20 per cent. 1 shall bt
greatly surprised if there is not a further
rise in prices which, all things considered
| ScellS W Iic Us yS1 CHEAP. SuOulu nave
mentioned that, small rs is the European
harvest, it is not even satisfactory in
its quality. So much so that much of it will b,
unfit for anything but fodder. Th'
demand, therefore upon Russia and th'
United States will be Tremendous. / ex
pect to see wheat selling next winter at q
rise Of 20 per cent There are, however, GER
tain reasons why present prices may remain
unchanged for some months, that is. suppos
ing speculation does not force them up pre-
maturely. The chief Of these reasons is thu
fact that the farmers of the continent being
as rule, in greatly reduced circum
stances, will be forced by their immediat,
necessities to sell at once their entire stool
of wheat holding back none Of it, This will
produce temporary abundance, but it wi
be only an illusory abundance inasmuch a
the supply from this source will be totally
inadequate to meet the demand. These
small quantities Of wheat being once ex
hausted the crisis will break out again In it
full entirety and prices will continue h
} mount