Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1888-10-31
I'd EDITION.
--latest TelGglanS to The Star.
HOW GOES INDIANA?
The State Doubtful, with the Odds
Somewhat I'm Favor of the DemOcratS.

The State Doubtful, with the Ouds
Somewhat I'm Favor of the Democrats.
Special Dispatch to TIE EvKSIss STAR
INpIANAPoLIs, Oct. 31.-Which party VIII
carry Indiana That is the question OF the
hour. 1t is much more easily asked than
answered, if the man who undertakes to give
the answer has any regard for the truth. The
campaign managers of both parties claim the
state, but that means nothing. 1t is important
in the policy Of campaign management that
the workers should be encouraged by the
leaders te,believe that there is victory ahead,
and when they regard defeat as certain
they predict success with well assumed
sincerity. It is 50 this year. Conse-
auently the information that campaign
managers furnish is altogether unreliable. 1t
NAV be said for them, however, that they do
not always Intentionally mislead. They are
often deceived themselves. happen to know
that Col John C. New, the most astute of
Hoosier politicians. sincerely believed in 1884
that Blaine's plurality in Indiana would not
be below 10000. He expected even more. But
somehow the situation changed in the last
days, and the democratic plurality was over
5000. Politics in Indiana is decidedly kaleid-
oscopic. Mr.. John Oakhursts definition Of
luck fits it precisely-the only thing about it
that we know to be certain is that it changes.
And am telling the only thing that is def
nitely and certainly known about the situation
when say that it is changing now.
From the time Of Harrison's nomination at
Chicago up to ten days ago the drift of the
campaign was decidedly favorable to the re-
publicans. There were two classes of voters
from which large gains were made-the soldiers
T-,n "a A g.
by the hurrah over Harrison. The advocacy
of protection has caused many democrats to
Join the republican party, but there are more
tarif-reform republicans in Indiana than there
are protection democrats. Endorsement of
local option has not helped the party, for the
prOhibitiOnists are more aggressive than ever
before, and they will increase their vote. Fol-
lowing the drift in the other direction.
it is found to be largely from the
laboring class, and it safe to estimate that fully
IS per cent of the workingmen-such as are
connected with the industrial organizations
will vote the democratic ticket. The rest Of
''the drift to the democratic party is made up
largely of tariff reformers and grateful pen
sioners who have been impressed with the idea
that democratic officers have procured their
rewards for them. Over 10, 900 new pensioners
in Indiana have been placed ON the the pay
rolls during Cleveland's administration. Many
Of them who have been allowed pensions since
the campaign have found written across their
papers
II congratulate you upon the allowance of
your pension. G. G. Matson," Mr.. Matson is
the democratic candidate for governor, and
this sort of thing has greatly helped him. So
much for the surface indications.
And now for the figures. Possibly there are
5000 democratic ex-soldiers who will vote for
Harrison. Certainly there are not more than
that number. If there are 1.500 Irish demo-
Gratis who will vote the republican ticket, there
are more of them than can be reasonably ex-
pected, and there is no reason to believe that
outside Of the two classes mentioned,
there are 1000 democrats who will vote
the republican ticket on account of the protec-
ton doctrine of the party. 1t is estimated that
there are 10000 young men in the state who
will vote this year for the first time. The pres
ident Of the Lincoln League says that he thinks
40 600 Of them are republicans. As the figures
stand, taking into the calculations the fact that
democratic plurality of 6,53l four years ago
must be overcome, the republicans are about
10000 ahead That, l believe, is about what
they claim, too.
On the other hand, the democrats are
sure to gain from 1900 to 5000 votes from
workingmen and probably as many more
from tariff reform republicans. If they
gain ten per cent. OF the voters that
ton, 1000 must be put down to their credit.
1t is expected by the managers of both parties
that the prohibition vote will be about 10, 900.
If it should be that large it will be equivalent
to q democratic gain of at least 5000. Demo-
Gratis strongly maintain that the first votes are
about equally divided between the two parties.
If the claims of the republicans are discounted
one-third, which seems to be about fair, $500
more may be placed in the democratic column.
Now, how do the figures stand? Taking
the minimum estimate on workingmen and
tariff reformers, the total of democratic gains
is II 800, leaving plurality over the republi-
can estimate Of 1900. Five days ago the last
democratic poll, made with the greatest posi-
BILE care, showed a plurality for the party Of
1000.
1t is doubtless plain enough now why both
parties are confident Of success, and why the
state is doubtful. At this time the odds seem
to be on the side of the democrats. They have
the largest supply of money. If they are sue
cessful in capturing the floating vote, various
ly estimated at from $1,000 to 10000, their
plurality may be very large. They are sure to
get more than their share.