New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1888-05-20
WILL 1T BE PEACE OR WARi
LETTER FROM THE EDITOR OF 1.-THE PAIL
NALL GAZETTE
TALKS WITH Mr.. BALroUR, Mr.. GLADSTONE AND
OTHER ENGLISH sTATEsMEN-vIEws OF NJ. DE
LAvELEYE AND GENERAL BRIALMoNT.

Berlin, May 2.
We hear from one end Of the Continent to the
ociicr rumors Of coming war. The political horizon
is dark with gathering storm clouds. The hearts
OF men fail them for fear and all are listening for
the first clear intmaton that the storm is about to
burst Is it about to burst or is it not? That is
what l have to find out To discover IL can,
what is the true answer to that question, is the
reason why l am in Berlin to-day inquiring,
lnterrogating, interviewing and endeavoring, as
best l can, to find whether the new Europe is for
peace or war. The old Europe as we have known
it since the end Of the Franco-German is pass
ing away new Europe is coming into existence
before our eyes and the Old World will confront
the unknown future under new rulers and under
altered conditions. The death of the old German
Emperor, the resignation OF NJ. Grevy, the inter-
regnum Of the dcath-bed of Frederick III, and tho
threatening portent of the use of General Boulan-
ger in France, all remind us that we are passing
rapidly into the realm Of the unknown, OF the
possibilities and conditions of which all may spec
ulate but few can say anything with certainty.
ALI that we can sec at present is that the old men
are going and that the younger generation is COM
ing to the front. All the old history makers have
gone save Prince Bismarck and Mr. Gladstone.
The Queen Of England is the only sovereign who
was on the throne when Sebastopol was taken.
Alike in Italy, Germany, Russia and France
power has passed into the hands of youth. In
France the Republic has used up the veterans
almost rs rapidly as the Revolution devoured its
children. What will the French young men do
now that the supreme issues Of peace and war
are placed in their hands?
1 leave my editorial chair in the middle of tho
Parliamentary season in order to devote O month
to personal investigation in each Of the great CAPT.
tails Of Northern Europe, into the political and per-
sonal tendencies which make for peace or for war.
In the series Of articles which have undertaken
to contribute on the subject will endeavor to
set forth as faithfully and as succncty as l can,
the impressions produced on my mind by the var-
Gus conversations which hold with the states
men, the diplomatists and the rulers Of the Old
World. 1t is impossible for even sovereigns and
statesmen to foretell events, but 1 can at least
enable my readers across the Atlantic to under
stand something Of what these sovereigns and
statesmen are saying to themselves and to each
other and help them perhaps to realize moro Wv
idly than they did before both the men and the
ideas of the new Europe.
1 begin naturally with my own country. Lord
Salisbury is not young man, but
ne is much younger than Mr.. Glad
stone, and his two most successful
colleagues, his nephew, Mr.. Balfour and Mr..
Richie, are both young men who have made
their reputation in the last two years Lord
Salisbury is in office, and, barring accidents, is
likely to remain there for three or four years
It is difficult to see how he is to fall unless Mr.
Gladstone die or in his zeal for the maintenance
of peace, Lord Salisbury commit the country to a
war from which the nation recoils. Lord Sails
bury is strong by the strength of his weakness
L. far &c fro,,, Ia,r 70 Iorv
upon the support of the Liberal Unionists, headed
by Lord Harrington, who would check, and check
in time, any adventurous power to which he might
be inclined if he had majority entirely of his
own way of thinking. If Lord Harrington and
the Unionist influence under his control were
not strong enough to restrain the Government
from policy of warliSe adventure, Lord Salisbury
would have to reckon upon the opposition Of
formidable decline Of his own supporters Lord
Randolph Churchill, who was Chancellor Of
the Exchequer and leader Of the House of Commons
when Lord Salisbury formed his Ministry, is now
q supporter with views of his own, and one Of
these views is an emphatic determination that
England shall not be plunged into war for purely
Continental interests Thus it is evident that
if Lord Salisbury were to endeavor to go to war.
the wheels of his chariot would be Sprayed"
and he would drive more slowly, If indeed he
could drive at all.
I will briefly state the result OF series OF
conversations which I had with various notable
personages in London on the eve Of my departure
for the Continent In the Old World, Ministers
and official personages have an etiquette which
forbids their being interviewed in the ordinary
journalistic sense. II is not, however, impossible
to ascertain their views or to communicate them.
provided decent veil Of anonymity be thrown
over the source of these inspirations. Ministers
then l learn are not greatly preoccupied with
foreign affairs Do you think il we anticipated
war we should have reduced the Navy estimates
this year 100000 pounds? Our only OBJECT is
peace, and the Ministerial view is that # they
have laid themselves open to the reproach OF
rislxing war they have done so solely because
they loved peace so we'll that they were willing
to risk war in order to maintain the Continental
equilibrium Briefly stated the Ministerial idea IN
foreign policy has been based upon the following
conception of the situation: The disturbing
forces in the European situation are France ana
Russia. France avowedly is in training 1or an
attack upon Germany. Russia is her natural
her one ally. Russia, moreover, has designs OIL
her own in the Balkan Peninsula ana Constanul-
nope, which render her Of necessity menace 10
the status quo. To keep the peace 1t is necessary
TO form League OF Peace Oh WHICH ooin''
from position and necessity, would form the
nucleus Germany and Austria made an aliiance
for defensive purposes and to this alliance Italy
was subsequently admitted. The idea OF the
advanced Mnsterialists was that England should
also ioin this Peace League at first as the ally OF
Italy. Signor Crispi publicly declared that itay
had concluded an alliance with England on the
seas, and although Sir James Ferguson suDse-
ouenty denied the existence of the alliance, Min
listers are believed to have given the Italians some
verbal assurance which during Lord SALISBURY
tenure of office might compel the English neec
to undertake the defence of the Italian httorai
against French attack. OF this, OF course MIN
listers will say nothing But there is little douo'
that whatever they may have dreamed OF once
their present attitude is not that OF men VINO are
resolved to play decisive or even Leading paf0
in the European drama.