The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1888-12-17
THE GUESSERS AT SEA.
THE COTTON CROPS OUTLOOK FOR
1888 AND 1889.

1888 AMI 1902.
a Falling Of from Last Years Crop
Predicted Cotton Men Say
about 1.-THE "Bradstreet's" Eeti-
mates-The Figures They Give.
The past week in the cotton market was
a guessing week, that is, as to the crop OF
this year. Apparently all the spectators,
as well as the factors. are at sea. Messrs.
Latham, Alexander & Co. have concluded
that the crop will be 100000 bales. Hill,
Fontaine & Co. of st. Louis, who, as the
New York Herald says, do not think much
Of the dudes of the New York cotton ex-
change, say that the yield will be 6716,
900 bales. Another New York firm claims
that it will be less than $500, 900 bales.
OF course crop estimates and guesses are,
as a rule, given more attention than they
deserve. There are several influences that
go to alter the total crop. The coulsump-
ton, it is believed, will not be as great this
year as it was last year. The crop has been
very slow; in other words, backward. The
receipts during this month and next,
though, will be the most potent influence.
| The cotton ports are short at least 400, goo
bales Savannah's decrease, however, is
|
The opinion expressed among factors here
| is that crop will be less than was sup
posed. The opinion at the opening of the
season was that it would be fully 1000, 900
bales, which may possibly be verified mas
much as the previous season picking stopped
Dec. 2. In the great crop of 1SS2-'83 it
stopped Dec. 20. This seasons picking it is
known to be backward. and the amount of
cotton to come forward is yet an unknown
factor
The BrddStreerS estimate that the crop
| of 1SSS-S9 may fall short of 100000 bales.
II it comes within 10000 bales of this est-
mate, the BrddStreets says it will do SC in
the face of the general impression at the
south. Bradstreets bases its estimate on
the replies Of 1896 correspondents in 654
out of 657 cotton producing counties of the
United States. The total yield by
states is based upon the esti-
mates of production made by cor
| respondents, no provisions or allowances
being made for error or underestimate on
the part of correspondents. Unlike the 1887
crop, that of 1888 80 is late, and unlike the
the preceding crop, the present crop has
| suffered from too much moisture. The
plant did not get such good start this year
as it did in 1887, and the picking season has
| not been nearly so long or favorable as that
! of 1887. These and other conditions must
| be recognized in considering the present
| cotton crop, as must also the increase in
| acreage this year, which amounted to 409.-
600 acres, or per cent.
| THE BAD WEATHER.
| The returns by states show the widespread
| prevalence of unfavorable weather con-
ditions throughout the picking season.
| Damp, stormy weather arrested the growth
and interfered with tie picking. This is in
sharp contrast with last fall, when practi-
| cally the whole crop was saved in excellent
| condition. Nearly half the replies to the
| question as to weather report it bad, where
as in 1887 81 per cent. of the replies received
! reported good weather. The absence of good
| reports is especially noticeable in Atlantic
| and eastern gulf states and the Mississippi
valley. In Arkansas and Tennessee weather
conditions have not reached fair, and
| Texas and possibly western Louisiana alone
| note the prevalence of fair to good weather
| The effects of this, and some damage from
| frost have influenced the replies to the top
| crop question. Fully one-half of the top
| turn or none at all. Nearly two-thirds of
the replies to the question as to the influence
| of November weather were to the effect
that the crop had been reduced by it.
| THE TOP CROP.
| In 1887 Is per cent. of the re-
| plies as to the top crop reported
| good crop gathered, whereas this
| year only Is per cent. of the total num-
Der of replies more than double.last years
total report good top crop. A year ago
the unfavorable replies constituted one
tnlrd of the whole. This year they are, as
above stated. about one-half. Killing frosts
the first week in November are reported to
have been general in many sections. They
became general in Texas by Nov. 10. The
| progress of harvesting, interfered with by
| bad weather, was slower than in 1887, with
the result that the proportion unpicked on
Nov. 30 average date of rephes) was Is or
IA per cent. throughout the belt.
The quality of the crop has suffered.
Forty-ive per cent. of the replies to ques-
tions as to quality report it lower than last
year, and 25 per cent. Of the replies report
the quality equal to last year. The favor
able replies come chiefly from the states
| where good weather was reported. About
IS per cent. of the replies received report
the crop movement this year to be rs rapid
if not more so than in 1887. The financial
| condition of the planter seems hardly so
favorable as last year. Thirty per cent. of
| the replies report it less favorable than last
| year. while in 1887 the like percentage was
| but 20.
| THE CROP AS A WHOLE.
AS to the yield of the crop as whole,
,435 out Of 2,212 replies lover "a per cent J
report probable decline in yield. In 1887
"a eRy.k. 81