New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1888-09-15
POPULAR OBSERVATIONS.
WHEAT.

THE CROP REPORT-SUPPLY FOR TIE CROP fbAb
TO the Edftor Of me tribune.
Sir: 1t is remarkable that the Government
crop report for September is regarded as favor
able because wild exaggerations about the injury
to spring wheat have obtained crcdcncc let
the official report recognizes that great injury
was done TO spring wheat in August and also
notes the improvcmcnt found in the condition OF
winter wheat as threshng returns have been re-
ccvcd 1t justiGcs an addition of only about
5000. 600 bushels to the estimates OF winter
wheat yield, while, if the figures of the Bureau
are strictly followed in computations by States
il requires a reduction Of nearly 2OOOO,OVV
bushels in estimates Of the spring wheat yield
Thus the aggregate yield foreshadowcd by the
report, if strictly followed, may be rcckoned
about 1850, 600 bushels. IL would be qulte
easy TO suggest probable errors IN this report
but, unlike some cntcrprisng people in the Street
| am not ambitious 10 put out criticisms and
predictions month after month and year after
year. in opposition TO official reports. which the
final results usually prove TO be closer TO the
truth than any guess Ii will not surprise me,
though to find the Bureau allowing more largely
in future reports for an increase Of acreage in
new States and Territories.
Starting then with yield probably 43,OOO,OOO
bushels short Of last years. have we reason to
reckon. a British and other foreign statlsticlans
do that America has only 90,00O.000 bushels
surplus for export this year, Clearly there IS
no reason in such reckoning. Tn" surplus
brought over from last years crop was 5l,o19OOo
bushels in excess Of the minimum of July, lSo2'
and this surplus with the new crop, would make
total supply of 4G6.350,Oo0 bushels. The
quantity required for home consumption can IN
no ease be estimated at more than 3i0,30O0OO
bushels in the light of facts now known. ms
would leave 1876 600, 600 bushels for export dur
ing the crop year
Thus far, moreover. the exports have been
about 10000, 600 bushels less than those of last
wear to date. This leaves nearly 100000, 600
bushels still to be exported, whereas the exports
after September during the last crop
year were only sl,6Oo,Ooo. In these
comparisons allowance has been made for
the full increase Of population dur
ing the coming ten months from natural causes
and for an immigration of 500, OOO for seed equal
to the quantity required for this years acreage
and for consumption little above the average
/ for the past sixteen years.
! Thus it is safe TO say that the price in this
| country cannot be held above the current price
! in European markets without forcing bankers
| and traders to carry over next year large
unsold surplus. The outside world consumc'
/ wheat, more or less, according to its price, and
we may be very certain that the consumption III
! England France and Germany, having together
a population Of over 20,0G0,000, viii diminish
more than the entire amount of cur cXportablC
surplus. that is less than one lushcl per capita
for these nations if the price is far advanced. j
would pay this country better to market what
surplus if has at good prices than TO try Il
corner the world on wheat and fail again
New York. Sept -. 1855. ". NJ &.