The Grenada gazette. (Grenada, Miss.) 1885-18??, 1888-03-03
CONCERNING LUCK.
An Unscientific and an Unreason.
able Belief.

Belief in luck is equally unscientifc
and unreasonable. The ~average;;mind.
which has ever been an illogical mind.
draws no distinction between the OBJ
served ill-luck or good luck which
may be expected to continue. 1t Is
this trust in luck. this expectation
based on past events, which 10 UNI
scientific and Illogical, not the recog-
milton of tho fact that such and such
men have been lucky or unlucky in
the past. This last is a certainty; the
belief based on it by the average mind
is absurdity.
1t may seem harsh to say that be-
licfs Of this sort, which are entertained
by ninety-nlne men IN a hundred, in.
dictate a weak place in the brain. But
insomuch as more than one profound
philosopher has expressed the belief
that every mar has some weak place
in the brain (as each man would ad-
init Of himself if he tested all his
beliefs and compared them with those
of his fcSlow-men dispassion ately), to
say that faith in luck and fetishes in
dictates q mental flaw is merely to say
that the weak place in the average
brain includes this particular weak
ness.
Consider the case of a believer in
luck actually putting his belief to the
test-not merely as to its correctness,
but as to his own faith in it, which
may not perhaps be SO real as he i'm.
agines. Take as q concrete exam
pie a gambler at San Carlo,
who has been having great
run of luck. An onlooker, pos
sessed with the belief in luck. begins
to regard this player as one Of the
lucky whose fortunes he will do well
to follow in order that the luck may
be, as it were, reflected upon himself
But his mind is divided by several
thoughts. In the first place, he is
not altogether sure that tho gamblers
good luck is likely to be steady. The
longer he notes its continuance the
moro satisfied he becomes un this
point. Yet he knows or thinks he
knows that even the stcadiest luck has
its limit; and the longer he has looked
on and watched success after success
the more anxious he becomes lest this
limit should be close at hand. He
wishes TO share the successful gam
bler's good fortune; but he fears lest,
at the very moment when he makes
the attempt, that fortune will for the
time turn. and he will reap loss only
and no gain. These doubts,
which every outsider in such u case
experiences, show that In reality there
is no faith in the lucky gambler luck.
The mind unconsciously works more
correctly than the man thinks. He
would say, at The very moment he is
perplcxed by such doubts. that he has
full faith in the gamblers luck; but
he has not; he only thinks he has.
II, overcoming his doubts. he joins
in the play. backing always the same
color as the heretofore lucky gambler.
he is bound to find either his hopes or
his fears confirmed. Yet whichever
event happens, his faith in luck will be
confirmed. lie will recognize in success
new evidence of the power OF luck; in
failure, new evidence of the fact that
luck must change at last His illogical
beliefs about luck combine the two
contrary convictions that luck may be
trusted to continue and that
luck can not continue forever;
yet he never practices contra
,diction. though when the trial
comes it is always q toss-up in his
mind (the metaphor is in this connec-
ton particularly up propriatej whether
he will back the luck or back the
change, and he never notices that
this doubt implies the absolute nom
reality of the faith he supposes to be
steadfast and assured.
A believer in luck will tell you Of
odd condolences which seem to COIL
firm his belief; but he will nevcr
think Of telling you. nor does he
ever inquire himself, how many eases
were involved from among which the
condolences he mentions occurred.
II a man tossed six ten times run
ming with n single die, or ''double
SKIES five times. or "head'' Tin coin.
tossina) fifty times, the event would
seem most remarkable; and if
1t was observed alone, or as
occurring in a few trials.
we might justly be surprised. In fact,
scarcely any onlooker could fail 10 in
fer that che die or dice were loaded in
the first two cases, nv the coin double.
headed in tho second, and yet so en-
tirely does the number OF trials modi-
fy our opinion that II IN each case only
y " ~ snI, vynsA