St. Paul daily globe., 1888-06-25

DOOh llldb tuto6 Sdill0 IulilUtIS, OOUs
etc, thus obtained, advance into the
narrative, each telling separately it's
own part of the story, except on the
very first columns of the play (where the
workmanship starts, and where they are
for time alternated with each otherl.
And after they have exhausted them
selves we find the subStractiOn of thSS
m0dlflerS producing new root mum berS,
precisely as $500 produced S07, and
each new number goes on telling its
own tale.
PROF. COLBERT'S OPINION.
"But here is the startling fact: That
every word of the thousands of wordsI
which | have worked out of the cipher
story is primarily the SS6th word! Prof.
Elias Colbert, of Chicago, says, and he
is almost the only man in America who
seems to have graSped the subject:
The probability that the random
arrangement of ten words in a line will
result III placing a designated one in a
stated position as the last is one in ten.
Thatis, there are ten chances, nine of
which are against the occurrence. The
probabilities Of any stated number OF
such arrangements resulting in the same
way is equal to the continued productQ of
the separate probabilities. Hence, If
there were ten such arrangements of ten
mated word would occupy SAY the last
place in each is only one in 10000, ,000,-
O06. Now, this is only an approximate
| statement of the chances against the
| fortuitOuS establishment OF such set
| OF verbal relations as are described to
have been found in the plays before the
actual cipher scheme was stumbled
upon. 1t is not pretended that this is
an exact statement of the vast odds, the
critic not caring to undertake the
| trouble involved in the computation.'
But if there is only one chance
against ten billions that ten words will
by accident occur in regular order in
groups of ten words each, how can the
language OF men be made to express
the imprObability that all the long, con-
tlnuouS narrative, perfectly grammat-
lcal, historical, and rhetorical, and eX-
tending through thousands of words,
could all come out in few pages
Of the folio, and every one be the S36th
word from about forty or fifty starting
points? To express such probability
would require an array OF numbers
which would stretch across the whole
face OF your newspaper. Take for
instance the word 'ShakS't', which is
used to express the first syllable of the
word Shakespeare or 'Shaks't-spur |
show in my book that this word is so
placed and the number of words in the
scene or fragments of the scene
so adjusted to the five cipher
numbers, 505, 5O6, 5l3, 516
and 523 (Which are in turn
all derived from $500, that it matches
precisely to those numbers fourteen diff
ferent time from some half-d0ZeH differ
ent starting points on three pages. That
is to say, ShakS't is the SS6th word by
faJIrtnaT iii iffnraT,t
pages. Now, let us apply to this prop
osition Prof. Coibert'S rule as to the
doctrine of probabilities, and multi
ply $50 by $50, and the product
again by S36, and continue this
process fourteen different times,
and what is the result? Why, that
there is only one. chance against rs. .SS9,-
9945, 224 ,716, 7G4, G70 74. 753, $50, ,960 Geo.
GOO, or one chance against seventy eight
twelvetrilliOnS, if | may coin Il word,
that the word 'shakst' would stand in
the text fourteen times as the S36th
word by accident. The human mind rs
not able to grasp chance which is tiie
tentil-milli0n trituration Of the next
thing to nothingi But this Is
not all. The word spur also
comes out fourteen times. Now
continue the process which produced
the above array Of figures fourteen
times more, and you will have reduced
the chance that Shakst-spur could have.
occurred by accident fourteen times to- a
quantity inconceivably less than the
intelligence of my mocking critics. But
when you have done this sum you are
only beginning. We have Cecil
brought out by the words seas
and is even now pronounced in
England) about score of times; Mar
low as morelow, several times: The
Contention of Y ork and Lancaster. three
times repeated; the old jade and tile
old termagant many times; the Merry
Wives of Windsor, twice; Richard the
Second, twice; Measure for Measure.
three times, etc. And when you have
applied the doctrine Of probabili-
ties to these multitudinous combi-
nations. for each one is primarily
the S36th word from some one starting
point out of about forty or fifty points
of departure on a few pages of the folio,
then go ahead and apply the rule to all
the rest of the thousands of words of
the cipher narrative.
''In the face of such tremendous
mathematical facts it is idle for any
man to except that the final working
out of the sentences is not perfected:
that there is no rule for counting up or
down the column, or for counting, OF not
counting the bracketed OF hyphenated
words, or that the rule is too subtle to
be apprehended by his intelligence. We
may not know why, to get the Shak'st
in ShakStSpur, we count up the column
with such a modification Of $50, and
why we count down with such another;
why we count in the brackets one time
and why we do not count them in an
other. But if Shakst-Spur comes
out fourteen times. and each
time it is primarily the S36th
word, any mathematician must tell
you that this could not occur by chance,
and that, therefore, there must be
cipher in the text of which $50 is the
priminal root number, and that the
minor details appear irregular because
we have not grasped the rule which
controls them. If we concede order
and method i'll the universe, we must
admit that there is law underlying
even the apparently unreason-
able mutations of the weather.
What would be thought of the
philosopher who, losing sight of the
marvellous adjustments of the solar sys-
TEN, and noting only that his corn had
been killed by untimely frost, would
deny the existence Of a God in nature?
And surely the conference of the planets
and suns in their orbits, and the excIu-
sion of chaos from the universe, do not
speak more clearly of design than do the
thousands of evidences of arithmeticaI
adjustment shown i'll the text of the
plays of Henry ".
THE WORDS ''FoUND oUT.''
''Let some mathematician take. for
instance, the curious example have al
ready referred to, the words found
out given on pages 571, 573 of my
book, and apply the doctrine of chances
to it. Not only do the counts $50 and
900 fall ON the same words found ont5,