Richmond dispatch. [volume] (Richmond, Va.) 1884-1903, 1888-03-09

double sizes" 1--WE times, or "heed"
N coin-tossing fifty times, the event
would seem most remarkable and II II
was observed alone or as occurring In a
lew trials we might justly be surprised.
ia TACT, scarcely any on-looker could
iaii TO infer that the die or dice we're
loaded in the two first cases, or the
coin double-headed in the second. and vet
so entirely does the number of trials
modify our opinion that if in each
case only sufficient number of trials
were made, the failure OF the very event
which considered alone seemed so re-
markable could justly be regarded as
more remarkable by far than its occur
renee even on single trial. Consider
for example, the tossing of single die.
III 100000 persons make each 100
trials, going on at each trial only 30 long
as "six was tossed, there would be in
all 600, 900, 900 trials IL is practically
certain that in about 100, 600, 900 OF
these "slx" would be tossed at the
first trial; in about 16,666,6G Of
these "six would be tossed a
second time in about 2,777,7 78 OF
these 1t would be tossed third time in
about 462, 1853 Of these fourth time 10
about n, 100 OF these fifth time in
about 1850 OF these n sixth time in
about 2, LAB OF these seventh time in
about 357 of these an eighth time; in
about go OF these ninth time. and in
about 10 OF these tenth time. IL wonld
be very strange and unusual thing il up
to the ninth set OF trials these numbers
were not represented very closely, for it
would imply that in great number OF
tossings six had not appeared its
duly proportionate number of times
viz, in about one sixth the num-
Der OF trials. Even in the set
of tenth trials, about sixty in
number, it would be very strange
thing If no "six appeared at all. Yet
If only one "six" appeared in all those
trials the full number of ten consecutive
"sixes," which, considered alone, seems
so remarkable. would have appeared. If
We increase the number OF trials hun
dredfold, as we can quite readily ina
glne done by allowing the 5000, 900 to
make each 100 trials on each OF 100 con-
secutive evenings, we increase the
/ number Of ninth trials to about
5000. Now consider what a sur
prising thing it would seem il
among about 5000 tossings not single
"six appeared; in other words, how
surprising it would be if the very event,
which on the other view appears so
amazing as to be judged utterly impossi-
/ ble, did not occur once at least, as
matter of fact it would probably occur
about 1000 times. Yet the persons TO
whom these long series of "sixes" oc-
Cured could no more be regarded rs
lucky, in the sense that they would be
more likely than others to toss "sixes
in subsequent trials. than the winner of
the chief prize, and in that great ma
tional scandal, the Louisiana lottery,
would be lucky in the sense OF being
more likely to win the great prize at the
next trial.
But it may be said in each case the
man was lucky; and we, the believers in
luck. would do well to trust in his good
fortune after he had thus shown that he
was lucky man. This may be said {;
but what would be the actual conduct of
the very persons who were thus conf
dent in such lucky men? Is there any
gambler on the face of the earth who, If
he knew that the last winner of the chief
Louisiana prize had drawn a particular
number for the next trial, would back
that number? On the contrary, of all
numbers that would be the one he
would avoid most carefully. "Who
ever heard" he would ask, "of the
great prize being won twice running by
the same man? lightning does not
strike twice in the same place. We
must choose some other number. Yet
the winner of the last great prize has
inst the same chance of winning the
next prize as any other ticket-buyer in
anv other words, he has chance worth,
theoretically, little more than half what
he has paid for his ticket, and practically
worth about fourth of that price.
IL there were any truth in the doctrine
of luck his chance of winning.
great prize would be greater than that
of any other ticket-holder, since bis luck
had been proved by crucial test to be
GOOD. while of the luck of the rest no.
thing would presumably be known. Yet,
put to the test, the believer in luck
shows that his faith is weak, since he
puts more faith lin this case) in the doc
trine that luck must change than Ill what
he supposes to be his faith, the doctrine
that luck can be trusted to continue.
In lotteries and kindred forms of gam
bling men reject trust in other folks
luck. and believe instead in condolences
and dreams. They find the numbers on
which they finally stake their faith IN all
manner of absurd and unmeaning ways.
All the tens Of thousands of ticket-holders
in a great lottery have selected their
number in some way satisfactory to them
selves, about which We hear nothing
when the result is failure, as in ninety
nine cases out Of hundred it necessa-
rily is. But when the result chances TO
be success, as in small proportion OF
cases it must be, the whole story Is
gravely related i'll the papers as though
the number actually bringing the prize
had been determined beforehand by
some scientific process of reasoning,
and success assured by the exercise OF
good Judgment or ingenuity.
Yet how preposterous such stories IN
yariably are, and what an insult 1t Is to
men of sense to expect them to accept
such insanities as worth considering
an. n. OF X. Y. a." we are gravely told
twas fortunate in securing the great
prize by his happy hit in selecting the
winning number $50, l75 as indicated by
the year of his mothers birth, 1901, fol.
loved by her age, rs, at her death.
Whatever number had been drawn we
NAV be sure that similar story would
have been forthcoming, and story per
fectly true, too, only absolutely unmean-
ing. Yet thousands of foolish folk
conclude that the winning number in
every great lottery is always determined
IN some such way---the real fact beng
that the winning number in any fair lot
terv is any whatever, but that since every
one who ventures the price OF ticket IS
sure to bet upon some casual comblna-
tion having as much connection with the
lottery as the pegs in his boots with III the the
,,,;nn;ns ticket cannot but correspond