Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1888-07-28

ANTICIPATING THE CROPS.
How the Public is Given Advance In
formation Of the Probable Yield.
| GATHERING INFORMATION IN ALL Parts OF TIE CoUN-
| rRY-FARhERs WHO ACT As AGENTS OF THE AGRI-
CULTURAL DEPARTnENT-UNsUccKssFU EFFORTS
OF DEALERS
Washington Is not exactly an agricultural GEN.
ter. 1t is doubtful whether any considerable
amount OF wheat, corn, rye, barley. potatoes, or
tobacco Is raised here. Yet It Is Washington, and
not the great agricultural regions OF the West,
| the brokers watch to learn the condition OF the
crops Chicago as well as New York, sends here
70 know what the condition Of the wheat crop Is,
and there is rivalry as to which shall get the de-
sired Information first
The great stock and produce exchanges Of New
York and Chicago understand that the price OF
grain and other products, and the value OF rail-
road stock, In measure are affected by the bull
letins issued by the physician here who feels the
pulse OF the growing crops throughout this coun.
Try and abroad. This man watches the growth OF
the crop and reports upon It's physical condition
toward the period Of its prodlctiveness, predicts
how fruitful 1t will be. Ali the great business
centers are deeply Interested in these bulletins and
the markets Influenced by them, and In this way
Washington holds much more important posi-
ton In the commercial world than II is commonly
thought TO.
THE NAN WHO WATCHES THE SYMPTOMS
Of the crops so closely is Mr. j. X Dodge, the stat
istician OF the Department Of Agriculture. The
work OF the statistical division Of the Department
is quite Interesting and the report upon the crops
issued on the tenth OF eacn month gives the most
near as can be ascertained the estimates Of the
crops made there before the harvest Is only q
fraction out or the way at any time.
Towards In can raj ~
tell with tolerable accuracy what the amount OF
All the principal products OF the country will be.
OF the Department-and sees how at every stage
OF its growth the cotton, the tobacco the wheat or
sne corn Is progress ing, and by the application OF
estimates
HOW THE WORK IS DONE.
This work costs the Government but little, and
Is OF great commercial value. More than nine
thousand men are scattered all over the country
watching the crops, talking TO the farmers and
collecting Information. 1t IS upon this infOrma-
tion that the Department estimates are made. In
each OF $500 counties there Is one inspector and
three or four assistants They watch the crops
with the greatest care, and each month report
their condition. whether or not the season Is favor
able, &C., TO the department.. They are not paid
for this work. and this fact is Thought by the De
10 DE In the interest OF report
as well as OF economy. II they were paid at all,
small salaries, and there would probably he q
scramble To get the places for Incompetent men to
Wuoul tudl uItIc WOulQ De temptation. The De-
partment prefers 10 make these offices places of
distinction and TO thus secure the services OF
the leading farmers OF each section. The most
experienced men available are engaged, and there
Is u very general willingness or desire 10 furnish
the needed Information. Blanks are furnished by
Tue department for the monthly report and the
agents are familiar enough with the subject to
know just what Is wanted. They 20 right out
into the field and look for themselves ami talk
WITH other farmers where ever they meet, so that
practically the whole community UecOme agents
for the Department. Eacn month the chief agents
receives the reports OF his ASSISTANTS; complies
them, makes his calculation, anu from the infor-
nation linus acquired he makes up his report.
Twenty-three hundred OF these reports are re-
ceived each month at the Department. From
them Careful estimate Is made by hr. Dodge, and
his report at the end OF the month Is the result OF
a Careful consideration OF ali the Information so
necessary, not only TO get the statement OF the
conoIlon OF the crop In eacn county but TO aScer.
tain what relation the usual production In each
county bears To the whole. A short crop In coun-
Ties Of large production would greatly reduce the
average OF the whole country, wnlle q much
smaller crop In an unimpOrtant district would
nave scarcely any ELECT AT ALL
APPARENT DECREASE IN ACREAGE.
Another thing that has to be taken into account
Is very general disposition In farmers to make IL
appear that their acreage Is less than 1t Is Mr..
Dodge says that II the reports OF the farmers were
relied upon In this particular the apparent de-
That In lew years 1t would appear that there was
no planting done at all This probably due TO me
Instructive desire on the part OF the planters to
make the number OF bushels per acre appear as
great as possible. Allowance has TO be made for
these things, and after twenty-five years at the
WORK Mr.. Dodge knows about what per cent OF
age the average farmer Is about 20 per cent a
nb6er. The true acreage must be ascertained by
comparing the amount OF product with the average
Yield per acre.
THE STATE AGENT
Besides the 2 800 agents who report to the De-
partment each month there Is a Estate agent in
each state who gets the estimates from his assist
ants about as Mr.. Dodge does here and the re-
SUIT OF MS WORK Is sent 70 the Department for ver
ncation These SAte reports seldom differ far
from the results arrived at In the Department. In
ADDITION 10 these report Is received from the De-
partment agent In Europe, and correspondence is
constantly going on with agricultural societies
&C. Inc Information thus acquired shows with
almost absolute accuracy what the crops will be-
tue prices Will be; and also the amount of carry
Ing trade Is Indicated with its effect upon the rail-
ROAD earnings A great EFFORT Is always made In
the interest or brokers TO get the earliest fnforma
ton from the Department for their guidance In
speeuiatihg; taise reports are often circulated,
ana attempts, nave been made indirectly TO influ-
ence the results OF these estimates.
WRONG PREDICTIONS
some years ago the wheat dealers in Chicago
made their own calculations from the earlier re-
ports and what other information they could get.
and found that the crop was going 10 be yerv
snort Ihey at once bought up ali the wheat they
could get, and then tried In every way they could
TO spread the impression OF a short crop and to In
nuence the estimate OF the Department so as 70
False prices. But there was one thing they mad
not taken into accountable foreign crop was as
the Department had information to show much
larger than In the previous year; that the
worlds product was not short. There was no adj
vance In price, and II was as much as the sp.cula.
tors could do TO get out with whole hides. Tine
next year they tried To influence the estimates SO
as 70 show larger crop than there was but In
this they failed also.
COmGressmcm who Drink Mineral
Water.
''They come In at all hours of the day. said a
mineral-water man TO a STAR reporter, as the lat
Ter asked II congressman patronized him. 'Some
OF the greatest lawmakers OF the country drink
mineral water every day.
As the reporter was speaking Representative
Butterworth. OF Ohio accompanied by Represent
alive Hatch, OF Missouri, came In. Mr. Butter
worth asked for Massanetta water and drained
his glass twice, while his brother member was
struggling with glass of Londonderry, Before
they were seated In their carriage Senator W. M.
warts walked In anu called for Massanelta which
ne drank In very calm and deliberate manner
"Iou are most 100 early" said he uineral-water