St. Tammany farmer. [volume] (Covington, La.) 1874-current, 1888-04-07

VVOsUVV ol tHeSS SIX WOuHi DE tossed
at The first trial; in about is 666 667 Of
these. six" would be tossed sec
ond time; in about 2.777.77 Of
these it would be tossed third time;
in about 49, 96S Of these fifth time;
in about IL $50 Of these sixth time;
in about 2. 14S of these a seventh time;
in about S57 Of these an eighth time;
in about 60 Of these ninth time and
in about 10 Of these tenth time. II
would be a very strange and unusual
thing II up to the ninth set of trials
these numbers were not represented
very closely; for it would imply that
IN . great number Of Iossings 'six'
had not appeared its duly proportion
ate number of times-viz.: i'm about
One-sixth the number Of trials Even
in the set of tenth trials. about 60 in
number. il would be very strange
thing il no 'six" appeared in all those
trials the full number of ten consecu-
tive 'sixes," which. considered alone.
seems 50 remarkable. would have ap-
peared. II we increase the number
If trials q hundred-fold. as we can
quite readily imagine done. by allow
ing the 5000. 600 10 make each 100
trials on each Of 100 consec tive even-
ings we increase the number Of ninth
trials to about 6.OO0. Now consider
what surprising thing it would seem
Il among about 5000 tossings not a
single six" appeared; in other words.
how surprising it would be il tho very
event which. on the other view. appears
so amazing as to be judged utterly
impossible did not occur once at least.
As matter of fact. it would probably
occur about l. 600 times Yet the per-
sons to whom these long series Of
'-sixes" occurred could no more he re-
garled As lucky. in the sense that they
would b. more likely than others
to toss ''sixes" in subsequent trials.
than the winner Il the chief prize in a
lottery would lie lucky in the sense Of
being more likely to win tho great
prize at the next trial.
But it may be said in each case the
man was lucky. and we. the believers
in luck, would do well TO trust in his
good fortune after he had thus shown
that he was lucky man. This may
be said. but what would be the actual
conduct of the very persons who were
thus confident in such lucky mene Is
there any gambler on the face of the
earth who. II he knew that the last
winner of the chief prize in a lottery
had drawn a particular number for
the next trial. would back that nnm-
bcr? On the contrary. Of all numbers
that would be the one he would avoid
most carefully. ..Who ever heard"
he would ask. .of the great prize BE-
ing won twice running by he same
man? Lightning does not strike twice
in the same place. We
must choose some other num-
ber." Yet the winner Of the
last great prize has Jus, the same
chance Of winning the next priz, rs
any other ticket buyer; in other words.
he has chance worth. theoretically.
a little more than half what he has
paid for his ticket. and practically
worth about a fourth of that price. II
there were any truth in the doctrine
Of luck his chance Of winning 4 great
prize would b. greater than that of
any other ticket holder. since his luck
had been proved by crucial ties; 10
he good. while Of the luck of the rest
would presumably be known.
Yet. put to the test, the believer in
luck shows that his faith is weak. since
he puts more faith lin this case) in the
doctrine that luck must change than
i'm what he supposes to be his faith. the
doctrine that luck can be tr listed 10
continue.
In lotteries and kindred forms Of
gambling. men reject trust in other
folks luck. aud believe instead in CO.
incidences and dreams. They find
the number on which they finally
stake their faith IN all manner OF alb
surd and unmeaning ways. All the
tens Of thousands of ticket-holders i'm
a great lottery have selected their
i'm some wav. satisfactory 10
about which we hear
nothing when the result is failure.
as in ninety-nine cases ont of one
it necessarily is But when
the result chances TO be a success, rs
in small proportion Of cases il must
be. the whole story is gravely related
in the papers as though the number
actually bringing the prize had been
beforehand by some
scientific process Of reasoning. and
success assured by the exercise Of
good judgment or ingenuity.
Yet it is idle to inveigh against the
holly of such fancies and sup.rs ,itions.
They have existed in all ages AM
among all races from time imme-
n"riaL Carrying in themselves their
own contradiction, they also carry IN
what TO believers iii luck
appears their full confirmation. For
ne does not observe thai the ideas
about luck which run through his
mind are contradictory. and in their
decentralization provide for every
event. When success comes 10 him
BY following one idea about luck, his
Faith in luck is confirmed; but when
allure arrives he is not whit less
satisfied that he holds the true faith
about luck. for he has another doctrine
about that event also.
Resolved into its component factors,
he common belief about luck in-
rOlves these two doctrines: Isl. Luck
as,s long. 81. Luck can moi last for
ever. The event Of any trial is bound
% correspond with one or the oiher