The Grenada gazette. (Grenada, Miss.) 1885-18??, 1888-03-03

more remark able by far than its occur
renee. even on a single trial. Consid-
Ell. for example. the tossing of a single
die. II 6 900, 900 of persons make each
100 trials, going on Mt each trial only
so long as .six" was tossed, there
would he in all 800 900. 900 trials. 1t is
practically certain that in about 100. .
900, 600 of these ..six'' would be tossed
at the first trial: in about l6 666. 667 of
these. ..,ixn would he tossed a Sec
ond time: in about 2,77Z,77s of
these it would be tossed a third time;
in about 462. 96s Of these a fifth time:
in about 70 ago of these a sixth time:
in about 2 143 of these a seventh time:
in about 357 of these an eighth time;
in about 60 of these a ninth time, and
in about 10 of these a tenth time. 1t
would be a very strange and unusual
THING II IN to the ninth set of trials
these numbers were not represented
verv closely: for it would imply that
IN a great number of tossings ..six''
had not npeared its duly proportion.
ate number of times-yiz; in about
one-sixth the number of trials. Even
in the set of tenth trials, about 60 in
number. It would be a yery ee
thing if no ..six" appe AIRED in all those
trials the full number of ten consecu-
tive .sixes," which. considered alone.
seems SO remarkable, would have ap-
peared. II we increase the number
of trials a hundred-fold, as we can
quite readily imagine done, by allow
ing the 5000, 600 TO make each 100
trials on each of 100 consecutive even
ings, we increase the number of ninth
trials to about {, 1000. Now consider
what a surprising thing it would seem
il among about 5000 tossings not a
single ''six' appeared; in other words,
how surprising it would be if the very
event which, on the other view, appears
SO amazing as to be judged utterly
impossible did not occur ono at least.
As a matter Of fact. it would probably
occur about 1000 times. Yet the per-
sons to whom these long series Of
'.sixcs'' occurred could no more be re-
garded as lucky, in the sense that they
would be more likely than others
to toss 'slxes' in subsequent trials,
than the winner Of the chief prize in a
lottery would be lucky in the sense of
being more likely to win the great
prize at the next trial.
But it may be said in each case the
man was lucky. and we, the believers
in luck. would do we'll to trust in his
good fortune after he had thus shown
that he was a lucky man. This may
be said, but what would be the actual
conduct of the very persons who were
thus confident in such lucky menp Is
there any gambler on the face of the
earth who, if he knew that the last
winner of the chief prize in a lottery
had drawn q particular number for
the next trial, would back that NUM-
Der? On the contrary, of all numbers
that would be the one he would avoid
most carefully. 'Who ever heard"
he would ask, "of the great prize be-
ing won twice running by The same
man? Lightning does not strike twice
in the same place. We
must choose some other num-
ber." Yet the winner of the
last great prize has just the same
chance of winning the next prize as
any other ticket buyer; in other words.
he has 4 chance worth, theoretically,
a little more than half what he has
paid for his ticket, and practically
worth about a fourth OF that price. II
there were any truth in the doctrine
of luck his chance OF winning a great
prize would be greater than that OF
any other ticket holder, since his luck
had been proved by y crucial test to
be good. while OF the luck of the rest
nothing would presumably be known.
Yet, put to the test, the believer IN
luck shows that his faith is weak, since
he puts more faith Gin this case) in the
doctrine that luck must change than
in what he supposes to be his faith. the
doctrine that luck can be tr listed to
continue.
In lotteries and kindred forms of
gambling. men reject trust in other
folks luck, and believe instead in CO.