New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1887-07-19
WHEAT CONSUMPTION.
ESTIMATES FOR FIVE YEARS VERIFIED.

70 the Edsforo The Trfbmne
SIR: The actual surplus of wheat carried over July
]. In OF the minimum stock held on the Isl Oh
July 1892 after the short crop Of 1851. does not vary
g. 100000 busAes from the estimate made by March
L. which then closely corroborated BY the oncia
returns Of stock I'm farmers hands For the hfst ums
in five years. IL fs possible to closely verify tho esd
mates carried forward during that period, and the
result demonstrates their correctness Dung all these
years. the stock carried from year TO year has
bern large that 1t not possible TO desermhe
the quantity approximately. But this year the
corner at Chicago called out largo quantity OF wheaI
pnd tho similar rgGle at San Francisco has caused
close estimates to be made Of the supply carried over
ON tho Pacific Slope II "a stated that this surplus
I'm California alone IA g, OO0, 900 bushels when
world imply In that State Oregon and Washington
NJ least 1000 900 bushels than was left after
the short crop OF 1881 The Atlantic @visibe supply
July q was 34413Oo0 bushels, against only 1O,1o7,-
A3O July l. 1882, when wheat that had been In far
mcrs' bins for six or years was called out by
the high price then ruling viz, 81 % for NO rcd
Writer against 81 cents July 1, 1887. The miik
five years ago had been stopped running short tine
for weeks, because the grain was 20 scarce and
high this year they were fairly employed, and the
stock OF -four hand represented at least two weeks
supply more than In 1892, or 1O,527oOO bushels
Adj TO this moderate cstimate-and only estimate
hero f. possibleof about 7oOOO bushels wheat In
farmers bins and country elevators more than was so
hand appears TO be- about 40 s33 900 bushels. Some
may insist that the last item should be reduced q
ntte Others thai the increase in -four should be rccR-
oned little less but modification VIII be made by
competent judges 1t is believed reducing the surplus
below 45 200 coo bushels In excess OF the minimum
stock of 1892
Now the crops officially reported by the Bureau of
Agriculture, Tor the five years. less the quantity
required for seed at IA bushels TO the acre, less the
netfluantty exported according to Treasury state
ments OF exports and imports, Ia 1,34s, 6o2'soo
bushels TIE mean population for tho FIVE years has
been 25S, 1851 Z according 10 my estimates, ann
have allowed FOR consumpton as food and in the arts
bu hels per capita. except for the last gear and
for that year on account Of tho low price and tho
general prosperity, 40 bushels per capita This allow
ance for just 3O4Ots3is bushels, leaving
surplus In excess OF the stock five years ago OF
4L6I459s bushes. The facts Therefore warrant tho
belief ~ that the allowance for consumption has been
fully largo enough and probably n shade too large,
and ta) that the estimates which have hccn carried
forward fo- five years cannot be more than 100000
bushels out OF tho way
As It Is exceedingly important to the trnde ard to
the PRODUCERS tiat the consumption OF wheat should
he determined with accuracy this close verihcaHoh
OF an estimate based consumption for sixteen
years previous 10 1892 nav deserve a record But to
many who engaged in the wheat trade tho
estimates werc sulclently verified when tho deuge
OF wheat came into Chicago In May and June, crowd
Ing elevators and tracks with many millions OF bushels
w.lch some had asserted were not in the country
Tho new crop year starts, then, with surplus
unconsumed and unsoid Of A., ooo,oO TO 5oooo,ooo
bushels. The crop now coming forward Is yet OF
unknown magnitude, but n II reaches i4Oooo,ooo
bushels or IL bushels TO tho acre, the supply VII
meet homo needs and exVo demand as large as that
OF the past year In that event however thcre would
he tue excess, If the export demand should not abac
Truly, W. ~. o.
Neir-E orh In IsE7