The Memphis appeal. [volume] (Memphis, Tenn.) 1886-1890, 1887-11-28
COTTON CROP ESTIMATE.
sTATIsTIcIAN DODGE, OF THE AaRI-
CULTURAL DEPARTMENT,
Vindicates the Accuracy of His oflcial
Estimate of the Cotton Crop Pub
lished About the First-Basis of the
Conclusion.

The special correspondent OF the New
York Commercial Bulletin writes that
paper on Friday that Statistician Dodge,
Of the agricultural department, is OF the
belief that the final returns will fully vim
dictate the accuracy of the official estimate
OF the cotton crop which has been made
the subject Of such widespread discussion.
lie says that the estimate has been made
somewhat earlier than usual, and is neces-
sarly based upon indications valuable
only so far M the experience, reports and
estimates Of twenty years have shown
them to be reliable. The cotton crop esti-
mates made at this time OF year have, he
says, always been the subject Of discus
sion and severe criticism, but have al
ways proved remarkably accurate. The
present figures are based upon precisely
the same method of calculation rs was fol-
lowed last year, when the estimate was
not popularity accepted when issued, but
which proved so nearly correct as TO disarm
criticism and disparage the method upon
which conflicting estimates had been
based.
The experience OF many years has proved
To Mr.. Dodges satisfaction that reports of
an early movement or other CONNER
cial indications are not safe guide in
estimating the yield, and lat large early
movements have often occurred when the
final returns showed a short crop. There
is nothing in the trade reports OF recent
date which operates 10 his mind us dis
crediting the official estimate, while, since
the time Of its publication, he has had
further evidence Of its accuracy. The dis
cussion, which he has followed with inter
est, and the facts cited in support OF other
estimates, has not changed his opinion
that the best attainablc Information renders
il almost certain that the yield will he
slightly below that OF last year. and ap-
proXimating very closely TO the figures an
nounccd-6, 800, 900 bales.
The discussion provoked by the an
nouncement OF this estimate has, in Mr..
Dodgc's opinion, taken wider range than
would have been the case il the prclim-
mary statement had given more fully the
information as 90 acreage and condition
upon which the department based its esti-
mates.
These arr contained in the report which
will be issued next week, and which will
give the following general statement re.
speeding cotton:
"1he picking Of cotton has progressed
rapidly, and the harvest IL aheady closed.
except in the soils which have resisted the
adverse influences Of the season. The De-
tober condition indicated a yield per acre
3 or per cent. less than last year, with
urlt 4 Il
returns or yields in fractions OF bale arc
less than last year in about the same ratio,
while the original returns OF yield per
acre in pounds are nearly the same rs those
of last November. The result in fractions
OF q bale indicate n crop OF about 1900, 900
bales on an acreage Of about 1860, 900, or
33.s-l00 OF bale per acre.
''The rate by States is Virginia, 32-l00;
North Carolina, 81; South Carolina, 80;
Georgia, 205; Florida, ~; Alabama, q. =;
Mississippi, $50; Louisiana, 43.3; Texas,
33.3 Arkansas, So; Tennessee, 81.
''The following table gives the estimated
acreage OF 1886 and 1887. That Of the
present year Is 1891 ,O67 acres, an in
crease OF 2B.7 per cent. In the eight years
since 1879. This can only be approximate,
how closely 80 would not he revealed by n
census unless It's returns should be-
thoroughly scrutinizcd and the omission
supplemented by further enumeration.
No census OF cotton was ever complete, ~
the current movement showed, until that
Of the last national census, aud then about
10000 acres were obtained by cnumera.
ton Of omitted ARIA where cotton was
known to be grown. II IL possible. oi
course, that the present estimate may be
too high or not high enough. II Is a
, difficult estimate 10 make, ~ the returns
are invariably too low. II they had been
followed without allowance tho present
area would exhibit smaller aggregate
than that az lhe reus,ts ,.ar.