New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1887-02-21
THE CONSUMPTION OF WHEAT.
TILE sUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR THE CURRENT
YEAR.

To the Editor OF TIE Trfbune
SIR: You will remember that in previous letters
urged that an important OF In estimates
Of wheat consumption had been usually overlooked
namely, the variation in British and European
sumption duo TO Industrial prosperity depression
Striking confirmation OF this appears The letter
published by Tho London Economist" OF January
90. from william J. Harris. Examining British
sumption Of wheat for fifteen years Mr.. Harris finds
that there has been remarkable decline In the guam
tty ,in ed per capia. and still remarkable
decline In the price IL the three years. ls727i. In
elusive. tho consumption averaged 373 pounds wheat
for each lnhabltant. costing about 80 90 In the
three year,, ies4sG. the consumption eragcd only
337 pounds wheat for each nhahitant. costing about
rs 60. Thus It appears that there has been, during
this period VI sixteen year, decrease OF 9.S per
cent in tho quantity Of wheat consumed By inhabi
tants OF Great Britain, and IL u yet plain that the
decrease would have been much greater had not the
price also declined to such extent that the PAID
for wheat consumed by each nhIbitant fully
thirty nno per cent less during the last three years
than during the years 1s72-'74.
In tho light OF this comparison. II Ia evident that
the usual allowance II -Os 900. % lu-h-ls for british
consumption must DO modified. British estimates
have been made on the suppostOn that the cOa-unp-
ton yer capita has remained for many years pract
cally unchanged. But decl!pc Of nearly ten per
cent within hs past fifteen years would dimnish by
about 100000 Lu.hel, tho quantity OF wheat
quircd In any year 10 supply Dnush consumption.
Let It now W Considered that, ia greater less de
gree. the change has been going on N other
countries. and that tho consumption IN france. in
Germany, and indeed thrOus bout Europe, has been
modified TO a greap'r extent " tho condition
OF industry and the circumstances Of tho people, Ia
tho Hight of ar Bsrrlss comparisons. II Is evident
that ny estimate. published by you some tine ago.
was much within tie truth. namely that the consump-
ton OF wheat In all Europe was probably 7oOoO.O0o
bushels smaller Ia times OF Industrial prostrauon than
In tmrs OF general prosperity.
Ofcial rports OF Production in lssG are now at
hand for Great Britain. France. Germany, Hungary.
Russia. Italy. India. and Australia. The aggregate
Of prducton In these countries which. with the United
state, AMI Canada supply about - a cent OF the
worlds wheat CROP was about 7o,OC0OOO bushels iess
In isr6 thln IN less. Adding a decFcIse IN Ontarso
Of about J,oOu,oOO bushels, To supply fIom all the
countries named about sl.OOO.OOO bushels less
than In lsr5. Iut the Jnitct states prOduco'i
100000 900 bushels than In 1888. so that. un-
lea changes of which horo Is evidence occurred In
the ell Of minor COUNTRIES the aggregate supply for
is-G probably about l0.OOO.OOo bushels larger
than for iss3.
But tho question for this country Ia to what extent
tho foreign demand for wheat IL 70 10 Increased Thus
comparauy ely low prices have favored largo ex'
ports OF wheat and hour. The preliminary reports
Just made by tho Bureau OF Statistics for January
show that exports In that month werc equivalent TO
1a--32j7 bushels wheat, against 6.5,J,bSo IN 1850
Tho complete returns of eXpOrts and lmpors for ak
months ending with December show that tho excess
Of EXPORT was equivalent TO 2 .00i.34 bushels wheat.
against a9.Oi5090 for tho Same months VI 1888.
thus IL appear. that tho exports for tho seven months
wero rrscti,aly double those OF tho corresponding
months previous year Whereas tho supply out
side 81 tho states about ~ 100000 bushels
les than IN se5 appears that tho supply from the
InlteJ states has already been 45.0O0.0OO bushels
more than In lrp5. IL not unreasonable 10
infer That II tho price IN this country not go ad-
yanced A. to check exports further ncr.ase ia tho
quantity delivered during the rest OF tho crop year
may occur amounting TO 30 100000 bushels. 40 that
che agcIegate exports from tho year may reach
l75,JOU,UOO bushos. But figures hitherto published
show that tho supply AVAILABLE for export In this
country during crop year was about iSe,3O0,O0O
bushels. 50 that should TIE exports Tor the rost Of the
wear coutnuo as large has been estimated above.
tbers womb yet remain Juno 80 about 23,OOO,000
bushels of wheat In excess Of tho minimum supply
CARED over after tho short crop Of 1851.
Yours truly, VINO
Nst- Iork, teb. 10. 1887.