New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1887-06-09
POLITICAL TENDENCIES.

The political prophet, even more than others.
is without honor in his own country. Men
who have no reputation to lose are volublc
in political predictions, and 1t is only the
sagacious and far-secing statesman who re
allies how many possible Burchards remain
after victory has been vir ually won. Hence
most of the estimates recently published, in
which the results of the next Presidential
election foreshadowed are but the desires Of
various individuals reflected upon canvass, gct
the small consideration that they merit Yet
it is not impossible nor out of place to take
note of the probabilities as they now stand.
and to consider what may reasonably be eX-
pected regarding the growth or decline of in
fiuences upon which the coming election may
largely depend.
For instance, the wonderfully rapid growth
Of manufacturing and mining in several South
crn States must make considerable change in
the votes of those States, if those votes can be
fairly cast and returned. Many thousands of
men from Northern States have made homes at
the South within the last eighteen months, and
have staked much upon the success of enter
prises which the protective tariff has fostered.
The enactment of any Democratic tariff would
involve for these men the loss of everything
For the workingmen employed by them it
would involve reduction Of wages or loss of
employment. For neighboring farmers and
land owners it would involve fall in land
and in the prices of products. Self
opens mems eyes, and no laborcd argument
will be needed to secure In Southern man
ufacturing and mining regions the votes Of
thousands who havo not hitherto voted for
Rcpub lican candidates there. A much moro
important point is that the influence Of the new
corners, and of Southern business men and
land owners, will be exerted to insure fair
vote and an honest count, and in tho towns
and counties where new enterprises are To-
Gated, probably with success. This change
may not impossibly transfer to the Republican
column 80 electoral votes, and yet it would
be most unwise, in view Of past experience
to count upon a fair vote in any Southern
State.
1t is equally clear that most Of the voters
who sincerely desire Civil Service reform have
been disenchanted by two years of experience
with the Democratic party. The notion that
reform can be promoted by putting that party
into power the notion that any individual
elected by that party can cflectually withstand
lis traditional tendencies and It's controlling
clements have been put out of the way, for
nearly all fair-minded and sensible persons,
by the events of the last two years. A few
professional rcformers. who stalcd their rep
utations on the experiment Of reform by Dem
ocradc victory will continue to insist that
their experiment was neither senseless nor dis
astrous But the great body Of voters who
care for reformed Civil Service will in future
seek reform only through Republican votes.
The last Presidential election turned upon
the votes Of few hundred believers in Civil
Service reform in Northern States the solid
vote of the South being secured to n Dem
ocrato candidate. The two considerations
mentioned, it is evident, tend to remove the
causes which then made Democratic success
possible. 1t may not be in the power of the
Democratic party to capture every Southern
State again. 1t will not be in the power of
that. party to dclude any considerable number
of Northern voters with professions of reform.