The morning news. [volume] (Savannah, Ga.) 1887-1900, 1887-11-30
THE CROP AND PRICE OF COTTON.
Some Comments on Current Estimates
and Opinions.

Some Comments on Current estimates
and Opinions.
The last issue of the New Orleans Cotton
World quotes an article from the Louisville
Courier-Jourmal, which speaks very dis
paragingly of the New York Chronicle and
its recent comments upon the current cot
ton crop estimates
The Chronicle has been long enough
known in the worlds cotton trade to be
proof against the slurs of the Louisville
paper, or of such a new arrival as the Cot
ton World.
The Chronicle said that while it did not
propose to make an estimate OF the cotton
crop, it was satisfied the yield would not
fall below last year's-the Cotton World, it
will be remembered, estimates the crop at
G, 225 900 bales-fully 300, 900 below last year.
There are good many people who think
as the Chronicle does in this matter, and 1t
may not be amiss to glance at soma reasons
for so doing
No one can deny that crop estimating is
a precarious business The Chronicle states
that it retired after disastrous termination
to a brief and brilliant career" We often
hear 1t remarked that 1--WE have got down
to much finer point now than ever before. p"
But in what respect is that trues How can
we now judge the yield of a crop of cotton
DeULer Uudu we COuIO HN6 years dSo. lad u
matter of fact it is bound to be to consid
cradle margin case of indefinite guess
work. A recognized authority" may be
wonderfully correct for several years to-
gether, and then make an ignominiouS
failure. A well known New Orleans house
gave a somewhat amusing illustration OF
this fact, and the Chronicle affords more
illustrious example. The government Stats
tician and the Cotton World now unite in
predicting and insisting upon crop of
about $3.50, 900; the question arises, VIII
they, in case of failure, retire to back
seat with the modest promptitude of the
New Orleans man and the ChronicLeF
In the way of gathering crop inf ormation
the only improvement conceivable is
better system of inquiries, and more of
them, sent out. The accuracy and veracity
of the replies is about as they were
five or ten years ago--human nature, so far
as we know, not having undergone any
material change for the better in the mean
time.
Those of us who passed the summer in
the South and kept up with the crop reports
as they came from day to day will recollect
how glowing were the early prospects, and
so continuing until the end of July. We
almost all expected the record to be beaten,
and it was a common remark, that what
ever now might happen, at least good
average crop was assured. Now, when and
where did so much damage occur to cut the
yield to over 100000 below last year, and
that on largely increased acreage9 There
came a change in crop accounts, but at the
worst they were spotted and mixed, as up
to the end some sections of the districts most
injured reported the finest prospects that
could be desired.
There is apparently no good ground for
fearing a smaller crop than last years; and
while the writer has no ambition for brief
and brilliant career as crop estimator, he
does not fear to go on record to that extent
at least.
1t is of course understood that all this talk
and dispute about the crop is chiefly done
to influence the prics of the staple-espe-
cially the future" markets of New York,
New Orleans and Liverpool The reduced
estimates have caused the market to ad-
vance over cent a pound-enough in itself
to cause & quite material shrinkage of con-
sumption. Moreover the proclivities of the
Southern planter-or of the South at large
are too well known to require dwelling
upon at length. Let ''boom" come in the
fall, and they will buy futures and hold
back every bale they possibly can.
The same old story is repeated again and
again. Sooner or later they have to both
market their spot cotton and sell out their
futures, and then they cannot understand
why the market should be SO weak and
panicky in the late winter or early spring
Light receipts in December and January
will not necessarily indicate shortness Of
crop-the acute Southerner. with his usual
perspicacity, may be counted on to hold
every bag that circumstances will allow.
If present prices are not profitable-that
is, reasonably so-better plant less cotton.
Let The Southern planter as fast as he can
get his cotton to market, sell it at these
prices, and be thankful for them. Present
speculation may carry prices 4 or \ cent
higher; if it does, so much the better, take
advantage of them.
Let the convincing arithmetician pile up
his columns showing conclusively that next
year there will be a half million bales less
than no cotton in the world; these sorts of
calculations have been known to come out
at variance with the actual QUIT turn of
events, and up to this time there has always
proved cotton enough to Ego around"
Prices now current are the result of small
crop estimates, an important thing to re-
member; and it will also not be amiss to
bear in mind that, other things equal, the
consumption of cotton at Zoe. will not be
the same as at &C., fact already exempli-
flea by the decreasing pressure for the spot
article. DEMoCRITUS.
A SURPRISED CONSERVATIVE"