The Washington critic., 1887-02-03
TIE HEATHER BuREau.
A Historical sketch - Tho orlgina
uOId Probabilities"

a HiSlnriCul sketch - THO utigih"
"Old Probabilities"
The current discussion affecting the
Signal Service, It's contemplated trans.
fer 10 civilian CONTROL the question as
to lhe selection of successor to Gen.
cral lla2en, etc, lend Interest to the
following facts CLEANED from the best
Informed authorities as to the origin
and history of the Weather Bureau:
The prediction Of the weather, cspe-
cially storms, was first shown TO be
possible fifty years ago by Rediicld of
New York, and Espy of Philadelphia.
About 1904 Espy was appointed
meteorologlst 10 the United States Gov
ernment, and for ten or fifteen years
made daily weather maps, studied and
published the laws of storms, and ad-
vocatcd Government Weather Bu-
reau.
About 1850 the Smithsonian Institu-
tion took up the matter, obtained daily
weather telegraphic dispatches and ex.
hibiiCd daily map of the weather,
and Professor Henry, who appreciated
its Importance, not only urged that
Congress should establish Bureau of
Storm Predictions, but frequently made
such predictions himself, based on his
daily weather map, for the benefit of
individual Congressman or local
institutions.
This work was stopped by the war
in 1861, but In 1865 was taken up by
the Cincinnati Chlmtcr of Commerce,
which paid for its own dispatches and
published daily weather bulletin, with
regular daily weather probabilities for
that locality, compiled by tue Director
Of the Astronomical Observatory, Pro.
fessor Cleveland Able
Within few months plans for 81 n.
liar work in Chicago and Milwaukee
were drawn up by Professors Ahbc and
Lapham, respectively, and immedi
atuly thereafter the representatives of
The Milwaukee, Chicago aud Cincin.
natl Boards of Trade at the Richmond
meeting of the National Board of
Trade. advocated the establishment of
general system of storm predictions
for all the harbors on the lake and sea
coast. General ii. Il. Paine, then
Member of Congress from Milwaukee,
was especially active in securing the
passage of the joint resolution adopted
in 1870, authorizing the Secretary of
War 10 provide for storm predictions.
The late General \. j. Myer was,
probably at his own request, entrusted
by the then Secretary, W. w. Belknap,
with the execution of the work, and
his weather bulletins, giving the results
of observations all over the country,
began to be published in November,
1870. In order TO provide for weather
predictions and the display Of storm
signals, General Myer called Professor
Abbe from Cincinnati, who personally
wrote all the probabilities of the first
years work, and the greater part of
those for several years after. The title,
"Old Probabilities, was at first given
to him as being the real author of the
predictions and the storm signals. The
predictions were always officially pub.
lished in the name of the Secretary of
War and as others gradually came to
| Professor Able relief In this laborious
work, the title, "Old Probabilities,
was, through military courtesy, trans.
ferred TO the official head of the office,
while the assistants were known as
Young Probs."
A few years before his death, Cen
eral Myer ordered the title "probabili.
Ties TO be dropped, and substituted
the title indications. The real mo.
tive for this change has never been uu-
derstood. The late General Hazcn was
active in improving the internal organi.
zaton, the military and scientific char
actcr of the office. An elaborate tri-
butte TO his efficiency in these respects
is TO be found in the testimony given
by Professor Abbe for the late joint
commission.
As it at present exists, the testimony
shows that the Weather Bureau is the
largest, most efficient, and most in
llutntial of all similar bureaus in the
civilized world, and, as Il recent writer
has stated, its authority in the United
States has been almost autocratic as
compared with the State weather bu-
reaus and other smaller services.