The Valley Virginian. [volume] (Staunton, Va.) 1865-1895, 1887-01-06
The Position Of the Wheat Market.


OF the amount OF wheat on pas ,age to Great
Britain and the Continent (22000.00 bushels),
only 100000 are from India and but a trifle nn-
der 100000 from all countries. except the
United states. For some time Europe's weekly
supplies have pan iarg ely behind her weekly
consumption, and hence her stocks are rapidly
decreasing. At the same time she has no
other country TO draw upon but US for an in
creasing weekly deficit for the next four
months. This is what makes European mar
kets SO strong and keeps them advancing. and
compels them to keep buying right through
the holidays. For January, the clearance of
wheat bought in November are therefore prob
ably goi ng to be very heavy. and should con-
tinue through March If not April. as all the
ocean tonnage offered up TO the middle
March has heen taken to arrive against wheat
sold for consumption. running through the
next four monts on the other side. for which,
the options have been bought here or in the
West to a greater amount than the entire
stock at the seaboard Thi will necessitate
large movement by rail from the West before
the opening OF navigation next spring to I'LL
these enormous sales made to shippers OF
options that won't 'ring out" 1t will be inter-
esting, therefore. to see what will he done by
the bears who have been selling short wheat
to the operators when they are called upon 20
deliver the wheat for shipment instead OF to
settle their differences. The clearances after
the New Year may be large enough to suit the
most voracious bear. and bull. too. The fact Is
that all the freight room that that could be had
at steadily and rapidly advancing rates has
been taken for wheat for three months or
more past. and that all the wheat has been
shipped just as fast as it could be that has been
bought for export and resol d on the other side.
This is the situation In wheat. Indeed, the
bears have used the fact that every shipper in
New York is a bull on wheat an argument
for the bears. They have also claimed another
fact in their favor, namely, that this country
which has the wheat to sell, is as bearish as
Europe, which is expected to buy our wheat. is
bullish. This they say is abnormal. and hence
the market artificial and therefore prices too
high. But are not the abnormal conditions
on this side the water and not the other, and is
1t not our markets that are artificial, and arti-
fically low. having been held down by all the
money power of the carriers and big boar oper-
ators combined, in face of the best export de-
mand and strongest foreign situation and mar
kets that we have had since 1879 The shippers
probably now own not only all the actual wheat
on the seaboard. but have bought options and
sold them on the other side and taken freight
for them for four months ahead. ending with
next May. for all the wheat that can be brought
to the seaboard during that period. This short
wheat must be brought forward, for it has not
been bought by the original purchasers the
other side for speculation. but to supply actual
consumption.
While the amount the foreign houses are
long in our markets may be regarded as mere
conjecture, yet there is hasia of comparison
that makes this estimate that they own half
our visible supply moro than possible. Last
| ms haf q To ha Eur
crops had occurred or was known, a careful
estimate was published of the then short in
terest in our markets for the other side, based
upon that held IN the offices OF few of the
larger export commission houses, several OF
whom had each a line of over l00OO. 600 them
and an aggregate Of over 40,001 .000 as estimated
by one OF them. These houses are believed to
be as long nov short then, and hence there
is every reason to suppose that Europe already
owns fully one-half our visible supply, which is
itself regarded as representing much larger
percentage of the whole crop than ever known
at this season OF the year. Therefore, when we
couple these facts regarding the supply with
that concerning the demand. namely, that the
United Kingdom has only one-third the stocks
she held year ago on the first of January
100000 instead of 27Oo0.0OO bushels of wheat
and flour the situation Is apparent Our visible
supply Is now placed at 62.000,G09 bushels
though charges are made by prominent par
ties that the stock at Minneapolis and UNI
der control of the millers there. who have been
and are short. is ony 1900, 600 instead of the
6,000. 900 reported, and the supply in the North
western elevators altogether is placed at 5.0O0.-
900 more than 1t is. This would leave rs trifie
smaller visible than year ago. From this
100000 more should be deducted for wheat
brought forward from country elevators be-
longing to these same short milIers to swell
the visible supply. instead of leaving it back
until they want IT for grinding as heretofore.
when 1t was In the invisible supply as it should
be, because 1t never comes ON the market and
probably cannot this year. for the reason that
these same millers are contracted and can con-
tract with shippers for all the -four they can
make till another crop ut present advanced
prices. This would appear to reduce our Visible
available for delivery on contract to about
81, Geo, 900 bushels. Assuming that half only of
this is sold to exporters and must be shipped,
how will the shorts fare after they have de-
livered half to exporters .-Leter In N. r. Conn
naerciaL Rnlletin.