, 1887-01-01

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of the Balkans can be formed, bis road, which
is also his peoples road, may be barred for
ever. We may be perfectly sure that an au-
tocrat like Alexander III.-who is not mad,
as the journals say, but is furious with disap-
pointment-will not relax his efforts to sue
coed, if only to prove to his subjects that he
is irresistible and every effort he makes,
whether through a purchased party IN Bulga-
ria, or through the Sultan, or through an
instruction in Macedonia favoured by Greece,
ID always bring him at last face to face with
the same obstacle. He cannot rule in the Bal
kans, either visibly or effectively for his pur-
poses, without first of all compelling Austria
Hungary to acquiesce. It is that fact, and
not General Kaulbars, which is the danger to
the European peace. The Russian Govern
ment, which Just now is the Gar, must either
give I'D it's design-which is to make OF the
Balkans an outwork to facilitate its march on
Constantinople-or it must fight Austria first.
Austria can always, while the Balkans are
free, prohibit the march; and the Hungarians.
will always compel the Hapsburgs to do it.
There is no escape from the necessity, if, as
now seems certain, the Hapsburgs have aban-
doned their idea of a partition; and those who
believe that the Gar will accept the first
alternative, misread all recent history. He
has not risked so much, and deviated so wide
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beaten now; and if experience may be trusted,
his impulse under his defeat will be to do
some violent act which will erase it's memory
from the minds of his subjects and the world.
Nothing but O. sense that the danger IS too
great, that the task is, in fact, impossible, will
force back the Gar on his own steps; and
there is no certainty that this impossibility
is visible to his own mind.
Let US look at the facts a little as they may
present themselves to a mind anxious to be
tempted into q daring, though not quite a
desperate resolve. The idea is that the Gar
is faced by d European coalition, and that
before such a coalition he will, as a fairly
wefl-informed statesman with able cOunsellOrs
around shim, be sure to shrink; but in his
mind there may be no coalition to face, hardly
even an alliance. We in England may think
that France is no match for Germany, that
the French peasantry would allow no war, or
that Germany could fight France and help
Austria at the same time; but the Russian
Emperor may not think those things. lie
would not be a foolish man, though he may
be a mistaken one, because he thought that
Russia and Germany once committed, France
would attack at once; for Prince BIsmarck
thinks so too, and said so in the most open
manner, using Marshal MacMahon's express
sion that in such a contingency "the Chase
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foolish, though it may be erroneous, to believe
that if France did attack, Germany would
have little force to spare for the assistance Of
her A~~+rian ally. The French Army is as
sting DIS it will ever be made-probably twice
a. strong it was in 187O-the French fortress
rs are full of m~0t6rjel, the French have a
popular, though not a fully tried General, and
France, taught by experience, may make the
campaign far longer and more difficult than
the last. Those who believe that she cannot
turn Metz, because she will respect the neu-
trality of Belgium, understand neither the ca
pacity nor the unscrupulousneSs of her Cen
erals. With all at stake, they will not think
much of European law. 1t is true, Italy is
now a State, and Italy is in the coalition, and
has great prizes to gain but unless England
chimes in with q will, Italy might lie, posi-
bly, would lie, at the mercy of the French
Fleet. 1t is on the water that Italy would
need strength as against a great maritime
Power; nor, with Genoa and Naples bonn
barded and Sicily lost, could she enter effec-
lively upon a war of invasion. The war may
i; resolve itself very easily in the Cars mind
into a war with Austria alone, backed by the
English Fleet in the distance, and that may
not strike him as SO excessively formidable a
risk. His Generals do not think SO. His
strategists have been preaching the necessity
of the -waa ever since the Colossal ingrati-
tude,' as Prince Schwarzenberg is said to
hava oaEAdIt If 1879 and the Russian DeO-