, 1887-01-19

campaign OF six weeks might reIOund MS
Throne, and, by arousing Slav enthusiasm,
paralySe the revolutionary party which
is SO dangerous to his House. A
strong ruler of Russia would almost in
evitably fight; and the present ruler,
whether strong or not, has individually
considered this road out of his difficulties,
and considered it with favour. There is
war latent i'll this situation alone, and
speedy war; and so seriously does it i'm
press Prince Bismarck, that, for the first
time in his life, he is acting as If he were
afraid. He is not afraid, of course; but
he knows war from this side to be so pro-
bable, and he is so anxious that the aged
Emperor, "whOSe vaSsal | was bOrn,"
should not be disturbed by its arrival,
that he actually risks his alliance with
Austria, the keystone OF his permanent
policy, in order not TO irritate the great
aud moody Emperor in st. Petersburg.
Nothing can explain the manner i'll which
the German Chancellor has departed from
the Austrian Chancellor about Bulgaria ex-
cept a desire-a passionate desire-tO
soOthe the Russian Court, and so prevent
any act or utterance which would make
war inevitable.
There is one dangerous situation, and the
temper of France creates another. That
legal France, the seven millions OF voters
who create the Chambers, and in ordinary
times control the Government, desires war,
we do not believe; but that huge and
many. headed power is often passive, and
there is another France, armed France,
about which we are much less certain.
The French Army was never in history so
powerful as now. It's ranks are as full as
they can be made; its scientific services
have been raised to prepOSterOus figures;
it's supplieS-and especially the supplies
which cannot be imprOvised, such as that
of trained horSps-have been brought up
to a point which il the despair Of the French
Treasury and of the German Staff. AT its
head is a General who, whether competent
or not, is too strong to be removed, and is
too strong because his officers believe him
able and willing to organise the rerGnehe.
ThOSe officers, 40, 900 Of them, have been
re-cducated and redisciplined twO-thirdS
of them never saw the last great war; they
are burning with ambition and they be.
lieve that, if only permitted, they can re-
establish the military ascendency OF France
i'll Europe, besides T"ecOnquering the lost
provinces. They may be hOpelessly wrong,
for the TeutOn is trained and ready, and
the Italian is at last armed but they are
believed to think so, and if they think 80,
no pressure from European opinion, or
from financiers, or from their own peasan.
try, will stop them from trying once more
the great experiment. 1t is at least upon
the cards that if General Boulanger can
not further improve his Army, he may
resolve to use it, and that France in the
spring-pleading, perhaps, an 6muete in
AlSace-may make the l~ong-expected rush.
Marshal Won MOltke, at least, believes
that to be possible, and his is not an OPT,
Mon 10 be lightly east aside.
And finally, there is a third danger.
Most EngliSlmen reject the idea, but all
COntinentals believe it possible, that the
German Government, which breads 10th
ing SO much as invasion, which knows that
the halfcemented Empire might fly apart
under a terrible tlow on its own soil, and
which, as regards war, is rigidly "~scienti-
fc,' that is, intellectually clucl, might
resolve that an ihtolerable situation should
end, might offer Russia a pledge of non
intervention for one year, might demand
thai French armaments should cease, aud
might prPcipitate itself once more with it's
whole strength upon France. The Ger
man Staff, which watches French military
progress with increasing dread, would
think that a wise course, and the German
Staff is a power within the Imperial cOun-
ellis. This policy, it should be remembered,
would have been adopted before, but for
the interference of Alexander H.; and this
time Russia may resolve to profit by,
~atbor than nrnvnOt the OnnOrfunitv