The Vermont watchman. [volume] (Montpelier, Vt.) 1883-1911, 1887-11-23
The Next Presidency.

lHt NtAt
In an interesting review of the polit-
ical situation the Philadelphia Press
discusses the probabilities of 1888 in
the light of the results of the recent
elections. The whole number of elect
oral votes is 401, and the number neces-
sary to elect the next president is 20l.
Eighteen states, with an aggregate of
1S2 electoral votes, are set down as
surely republican, and sixteen states,
with 1913 electoral votes, as surely
democratic. The doubtful states are
Connecticut, Indiana, New Jersey and
New York, which together have sixty
six electoral votes. The Press sums up
the probabilities as follows:
Ftrst.-The Pacific States California,
Oregon and Nevada-are put down in the
sure republican column. They are sure
with the right kind of candidate, not
otherwise.
Second.-Every Southern State is placed
in the sure democratic column. But with
the right kind of campaign there may be
a fighting chance for the republicans to
carry North Carolina, Tennessee and West
Virginia.
Third.-Of the states classed as doubtful
Connecticut, Indiana and New Jersey went
republican in their latest elections and New
York democratic But they are all really
doubtful.
Fo,rh.-The democrats cannot elect the
vii
If they should carry all the other doubtful
states and lose New York they would still
lack eighteen votes of enough Or, if they
should carry New York and lose the other
doubtful states, they would fall twelve votes
short. In order to win they must carry
both New York and Indiana, or New York,
New Jersey and Connecticut, besides the
solid South.
FUM.-The republicans can win by either
one of the following combinations
Sure republican states ls2
Indiana ID
NE"
Total 2O6
Or this
Sure republican states. 1872
Indiana Is
Total. ?O3
Or this
Sure republican states 1872
New 80
Or if the republicans can carry North Caro-
lima, Tennessee and West Virginia they can
afford to lose all the northern doubtful
states Or if they can carry Indiana and
any one of these three they can afford to
lose New York, New Jersey and Connecti-
cut. And there is no good reason why they
should not carry them all.
In another article the Press discusses
the question of candidates. Among
other things, it SAYS: ''The friends of
Mr.. Blaine will defer to the free eX-
preston of party sentiment. If Mr.
Blaine is to be nominated at all there
are two requisites: First, the general
sense and demand of the party; second,
his own consent. In view of the result
in New York, it is for the republicans
of that state to ask themselves: First,
who will best rouse the republican
masses and call out the largest vote?
Second, who will make the strongest
appeal to the working classes on the
protection issue? Third, who will make
the best straight party fight without
any side-show? Fourth, who will offer
the best chance of cutting into the
democratic vote? When they name that
man they name the next candidate.
The Press is evidently of the opinion
that Mr.. Blaine is the strongest cand-
date the republicans can nominate.
There are some squeamish republicans
who deprecate the nomination of
candidate able to draw strength from
the opposition, and one of the repre-
sentative papers of this class expresses
the opinion that any republican who
can secure democratic votes will cost
the party the loss of as many indie
pendent votes. We are not sure but
that there are republicans who think
that the party had better suffer another
defeat than to succeed by the help of
some of the elements mentioned by the
Press, and who think the party will do
better to submit to the impertinent de-
mands of the cultured mugwumps."
For our part, we think the election of a
republican president by the aid of por-
ton of the opposition vote is far prefer
able to the continued supremacy of the
democratic party in national affairs.
The Suppressed Vote.
In the Forum for November Senator
Colquitt of Georgia defends the south
ern democrats against the charge that