The Memphis appeal. [volume] (Memphis, Tenn.) 1886-1890, 1886-02-12
COTTON CROP OF 1885.
AN ESTIMATE OF III BY COL. SAM
TATE,
Who Thinks That After All Is Gath.
cred in 1t viii Amount 10 q
Total Of 6,295,669 Bales.
To the Editors of the Appeal:

MEMPHIS. TENN, February l0.-As
there is no subject tina. is more inter-
esting 10 large number Of your read.
ers, and none that there has been
more speculation about, none which
correspondents have differed 30 vide
ly about, l propose to give you my
estimate Of the probable yield of the
cotton crop Of 1885, now fast drawing
TO close.
Ii is well known TIA. we have had
am oJt favorable season for ea.herir Z
and marketing the crop. 1t was about
two weeks earlier than an average
seasol. While the price has been low,
the farmers were in debt, and the price
gradually declining. The merchant
from the cross roads and depo.s TO the
Wholesale men in cities, who had
made advances to the planters, have
been urging US to send our cotton for
ward, for fear it would 60 lower, until
now there is but little to be found
outside o. the merchants sheds in the
cities or interior towns. The scare
crow that has been held up to us from
New York and New Orleans by the
purchasers for manufacturers OF spec
ulators OF a 6,750,000 to 100000
bale crop has had its effect to
push the crop forward for fear that
their calculation might be realized.
II so the bottom would drop out Of the
market. Those calculations are all
made up from the same source, and l
propose ID stow their unreliability
They are all taken from the sgri-
cultural reports OF the acreage in
colt IN, which, at best, is not much
better than good guessing. Besides
this, if the acreag was even approx
mately true, no deductions are made
for the const lntly depreciatiDg pro-
ductive rover of our lands owing TO
the cut.throat policy now 30 univer-
sally followed by cotton planters and
their tenants of selling their cot o1-
seed instead Of allowing them to go
back on the land as a fertilizer. From
my observation and experience, this
loss OF productive power on all my
land that BAD been in cultivation for
ten to fifteen years, when we began
this ruinous policy, ha, been 8 per
cent. per amman. Again, owing to
the severe drouth in most places,
and excess OF Iain in others, the
last years crop was the mort
spotted and irregular that l have seen
in ten years; even in neighborhoods
only few miles apart there was a DIFF
ference Of one-ha'f on the same char
acter Of lands. l ba1 not a drop Of
rain for seven weeks, in July and Au-
gust, while the crop was at its full
hight Of growing and fruiting, with the
most intensely hot weather ever saw,
causing the plant to shed all its
blooms, squares and small bolls, 80
that the ground was literally covered
with them, and cut off all hope or
prospect of a top crop, which is a.
ways essential to a large crop; and it
the. testimony OF every planter that |
have seen that there was no top crop
except on the bottom, ands that are in
the habit OF OVERLOOKING, which, COM
pared with the whoe area in colt ID, is
very small. Another evidence OF the
shortness OF the crop is the fact that
the crop was all picked out, practically,
long before Christmas, thing rarely
ever known in even an average
crop. In the year 1882, when
we made 100000 bales, l was pickiug
cotton UP to April. When l began
planting, and l was not an exception,
that year fully proved the of,en told
story that it takes thirteen months 10
make and gather a cotton crop. / pro-
pose ID give what l believe to be the
only true mode OF estimating a cotton
crop, and that is, its movements from
the plant atoms to market compared
with other years. The past year we
had increased facilities for ginning and
transportation that should have had
come influence in favor of Its more
rapid movement.
ESTIMATE OF THE CROP OF 1885.
The New York Chronicle, the most
reliable statistical paper on cotton in
this country, makes up the cotton in
sight and marketed to January 80
1886, from all sources as follows:
Bales
Receipts at all United States ports "A 81, 10.
Overland movement....,............. 532, 1854
Net Southern cOnsumpt On............ .. Isl ,OOl
Stock at % interior towns in excess
of last year.,..,. ........."...,...... 4o3,lb,
Total in sight January 80, 1886,
from the crop of $780, ls
At same time January 80, lss5~,....-4, 92S, 76C
Counting from tho same source the
increase in receipts for 1886 over 1885
are 395, l47, or s per cent on last years
receipts to same date.
Latham, Alexander & Co, stand
ard authority, f1ot up the crop of 1884
received up TO September l, 1885, al
500, l65. Deduct amount received &c
January 80, 1885, as above, 4,92S, 1855
and we have that was received aftsl
January 30th 10 September lst Of that
crop al, 399. Add s per cent to this
as the average increase Of the crop o.
1885 to the 30th of January for con.
tinued increase on the cotton yet tc
be received, 62.191, and we have yet
to receive $4,000. Add the amount
received to the 30th Of January to this
5,523,9l9, which gives crop for 1SS;
OF 6,163,509. Suppose we add another
s per cent, or 16 per cent increase from
now on, so, 1911, and the crop would be-
6,225, 200.
For the benefit Of New York ant
New Orleans long-crop bears l will
add per cent more, making the tota
increase on cotton yet to be received
to September LIST Ct 20 per cent, Of
69,969 bales, and we find the crop G.,
295,659 bales. When we consider tina
there is in the foregoing calculation
453, 1853 bales as the excess OF stocl
now in twenty-nine interior townt
above last year, and that all the re
ceipts to be counted from this on
must come direct from the plantations
/ think no libersl-minded cotton fac
tor will dispute the fairness or liberal
ity of my calculations. l allow for ar
increase from February to Septembel
OF 1884, bales, and total receipt o
81, $50 bales, besides the 459, 1853 bale
at interior towns already counted, bu
which has to come forward to swell thu
foregoing estimate, either to the ports
overland, or be consumed in tn,
South. This would give an aggregat,
movement from plantations and in
terror towns, from LIST February to 1s
September, of l,424,9l3 bales. Viii
we get IL? The ipcre ased rpeaipts a