New-York tribune., 1886-07-10
PROBABILITIES or VAR.


The closing OF BatOum will not pass un-
noticed by the European Powers. Already it is
rumored that England will cndeavOr to secure
concerted action on the part of five Govern
ments and the Porte. 1t is doubtful if NJ. de
Frcycinct can be induced to sign a remon-
STRANGE against Russia's Black Sea policy, and
certainly Prince Bismarck, from whom the
Austrian and Italian Foreign Offices may ex-
pect to receive the diplomatic cue, will regard
this as futile demonstration. The Car
agreed in the Treaty of Berlin to make Batoum
free commercial port. He now annuls the
article of the treaty and repudates his oblga-
tioDs. Prince Bismarck will admit readily
enough that this constitutes a deliberate in
fraction of treaty law, but he will take little in
lelest in diplomatic protests which dc not con-
tain menace of coercion. He himself con-
doned if he did not inspire more palpable
violation of treaty law in October 1870, when
Russia informed the European Cabinets that
it would keep thenceiOrth a fleet of sufficient
capacity in the Black Sea in defiance of the
stipulations of the Treaty of Paris. Germany
and France were then at war; the Italian
troops had just entered Rome Austria had not
recovered from Sadowa; and England single
the results of the Crimea. EurOce is now at
peace but the English Foreign Office in TAX
ing the initiative against Russian treaty break
ing will be doomed Iom the outset to failure.
Even if the Powers agree upon a formal re-
monstrance, they are not prepared to act ag-
gressiveIy The Russian Black Sea policy will
not be modified.
The Batoum declaration, however, is only a
pawn which the Russian diplOmatlsts have adj
vanccd one square in one corner OF the chess
board. The Importance Of the move can only
be appreciated when it is taken in connection
with the wary and aggressive playing which
has preceded it, Although the Gar promised
in 1878 to maze Bat0um a free port, he has
never done so. His present avowal that he will
keep it closed against the vessels of other na-
tions merely involves the reputation of a
broken promise. Why, then, was the declara-
liun made at all ? Evidently, not because there
has been a change of policy respecting Batoum
for from the outset tie Government have con-
vertcd it into an exclusively Russian port and
fortified it as a centre of stratcgical importance
The disavowal of intentions which have never
been carried ont can only be explained on the
ground that the diplomatists were anxious to
dscredlt the Treaty of Berlin. They tore mp
single article of it as an intimaion that the en-
tire treaty has ceased to be Il charter of peace
in the East, that the arbirament of war is re-
qusitc, and that mOmentous changes are inl-
pending.
The appearance in Bessarabia of two regi-
ments of the Imperial Guard tends to confirm
the most serious apprchensions of approaching
hostilties. The Imperial Guard does not en-
camp in such dreary mud-hole as Kichincf
unless there is prospect of speedy campaign
ing. The concentration of an army of 200, 900
in that quarter has been currently reported for
several weeks. Apparently the Russian Gov
ernment has been waiting for pretext for in
tervention in Bulgaria. Prince Alexander in
opening a National Assembly for united Bull
gara may have already furnished this. Europe
had prohibited the legislative fusion of the two
Bulgaras while acQuiescing in his government