Richmond dispatch. [volume] (Richmond, Va.) 1884-1903, 1886-10-03
AueaI.e,en,,st speaks.

lPIof. Proctor in 81. Louis Globe Democrat,
1t may, however, be, perhaps, asked
whether there is not some reason for re-
gsrdipg the Goth Of September as day
Of danger. Even a Virgins, it may be
suggested. must at least imagine rea-
sons for bis predictions, as the Tices,
The yennors, the Grimmers, and others
Of the miscbieyous tribe have imagined
for theirs in the past.
Far be it from me to pretend to track
The wandering yagaries Of a Wiggins's
fancy. Yet in this case it is tOlerably
clear Why be has drawn this particular
bow at a venture. Men like Dana, NAL
let, Sherry, Hunt, and others-true men
Of science, seeking, as every man Of
science must, for evidence of law-have
noticed a slight tendency to an increase
in the number of earth-shocks ct par
ticular seasons, and especially in Au-
gust ard September. 1t seems to have
been established, too, that las G-priori
probabilities would suggest elrth-
hroes ate apt TO occur mere fire.
quently when the moon is in or near
Der point OF nearest approach TO tho
earth, and in or near the line connect
ing earth and suu--ihat is, technically,
when she is near perigee, and near either
sJzygy--ihan at other times. Well
on August 3 LIST the moon was not quite
three days past her perigec, and bat
two days past conjunction with the
sun. There was q total eclipse on Au-
gust Goth. On September 18th she
will again be three days from her peri
zee and two days past conjunction With
he SUD. So that there will be the same
conditions, or nearly SO, on September
29th which existed on August 3lst. AS
,umiug that the laws which the scientific
students of the subject believe they be-
gin to recognize, 10 be really sound,
then other things being equal-it
would be slightly more probable that a
great earthquake will occur during the
last week Of September, this year, than
during a week taken casually, say in
June or July. But be it observed that
such conditions recur year after year,
and that, apart from all other circum-
stances, there can be no greater reason
for anticipating a great earthquake IN
September this year than in any
September of the past aud coming CEN
fury. And since there has been
a great earthquake this year, and in
the season and under the conditions
noted by Mallet, Dana, and others, as
on TIE whole apparently fayoring the
occurrence Of earthquakes, it is exceed
ipgly probable that the imprisoned
forces Of the earth beneath the Amerl-
can continent have for awhile found re.
lief, and that no great earthquake will
occur in the same region for many years,
possibly for centuries. | would not
predict such quiescence, nay, |
would not even assert confidently
that there might not be a great
earthquake in the Southern States
quite soon. To do this would be to
offend against the principles Of scienti'
tic morality. For know that as yet
science has not mastered the laws Of
subterrsnean action, and that predic-
ton would be falsehood or folly, or
both. But the probabilities are de-
cidedly in favor Of long. continued Pc
riod Of reBose, so soon as the after
ihroes still in progress have completed
be work of restoring equilibrium,
which they seem well able to do with
out further destructive action.
Should it chance that great earth
quake occurs at or about the time men
toned by this Mr.. Virgins that would
confirm in arather more emphatic man
ner than they themselves could expect
The views of the scientific students OF
yulcanology and seismology, Mr.. Wig
gins's prediction would still be but a
proof Of his dishonesty, for be knows that
all be knows about earthquakes has
been borrowed from the researches Of
the scientific writers, and that his pre-
dictions are haphszard guesses, based or
intended to be based on the results
of their labors. 1t would still be evil
dent that in his selfish wish for motto.
riety be does not care what mischief he
may do by exciting false alarms about
storm and flood, eruption and earth.
quake. Herein he has sunk to . lower
level than even those weather-predicters
whose name has long been a by-word
among men of science. Vennor and
Ticc on this side Of the Atlantic and
equivalent charlatans on the other were
degraded enough. in sll conscience, but
they, at least, kept clear of the wicked
ness Of spreading mischievous fears by
threats of widely-destructive catas-
trophies. RICHARD A. PROCTOR.