Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1886-07-24
THE DOUBTFUL DISTRICTS.
Where the Fight for the Control Of the
Next House Will be Made.

Next House Will be Made.
FoRTY-FouR DISTRICTS IN WHICH THE VOTE
Is CLOSE THE CHANCES OF THE REPUBLI-
CANS AND DEMOCRATS - WHERE GAINS OR
LOSSES NAY BE EXPECTED BY EITHER SIDE.
The canvass for political possession of the
next House of Representatives has scarcely
begun, though the opposing party committees
are organized and on the field. 1t is apparent
that the contest will be hotly waged, for the
republican leaders are desirous of carrying the
congressional election as a means of inspiring
their followers to renewed hopes and greater
efforts in the next presidential struggle. should
the republicans be able to reverse the demo-
cratic majority of the House, it would he re-
garded as very plain evidence of change of
political sentiment. 1t would be construed as
a vote of lack of confidence in the democratic
administration. and would naturally depress
the democracy and elate the republicans. AS
preliminary to the presidential contest the con-
gressIonal election is important. The fight must
be waged in the close or doubtful districts.
The custom of jerrymandering has pecome SO
general that the dominant party in
nearly all the states have done it's best towards
making the calling and election of its congress
sional candidates safe by giving them favor
able districts. In other words the rule is 10
have few doubtful districts as possible.
Under this system there are very many con-
gressional districts which are securely held
by one party or the other as to render all at
tempts OF the opposition against them futile,
under ordinary political conditions. In Mis-
souri, for instance. there are districts which have
there are republican states wherein the districts
are just as surely jerrymandered for that party.
In political contests, where there is great pubic
excitement, where the masses are stirred To the
very Depths such majOrities as the
THE GERRYMANDERED DISTRICTS
have can be overcome; but in the now pending
congressional fight there is no such public in-
terest There are no issues OF sufficient impOr-
tance To arouse the people. Hence the battle
must be fought in he close districts. The dem
ocrats have a very decided advantage in the
position. They need only retain what they
have. They are on the defensive as 1t were,
and their opponents must make the assault 10
oislodge them. In other words, the republicans
ocracy have forfeited their claim TO a further
exercise OF political power. The democratic
majority In the present House is iOrty-iour, ami,
by singular coincidence. there are just pre-
cisely that number OF what may be defined
close districts. There are iweLJy-three districts
now represented by democrats in which the
sitting member Was returned in the fall oi 1854
by less than loo plurality, or majority, aud
there are twenty-one republican mem bers of
close districts, in which the last election
was " won by pISrai,,es rapEing b from
battle must De fought or the "A districts here
denominated as close. the sitting member was
elected i'll 80 oi them by less than 5Uu votes in
each case. There is nothing in the political
horizon 10 indicate that any marked changes
have occurred in public sentiment since Inc
fall of 1854.
THE STRUGGLE FOR THE CONTROL
of the next House will be based upon those
issues which divided the two great parties in
the last contest. The tariff is a very flexible
issue, readily adjusting Itself to the prevailing
sentiment of the district. 1t Is another Iact vi
no little Importance rs bearing upon The result
OF the peHulng contest that, with the exception
of six, ali the close districts herein referred TO
in the north aud west. In the south there
are Two i'll Kentucky. two ia Tennessee, one III
Maryiand and one in louisiana Ii Is in the
north aud west that the republicans must IAake
their gains II lucy succeed IN Capturing Con-
gress. ine south Will, III all probability. remain
practically us now represented. With d deino-
cratic national administration thai has given
general satisfaction to tn;t section, it is not 10
be anticipated that ANY marked cnaugcs Will
occur in Congressional districts. In i.ct the
democrats are more likely % gain several mein-
bers in the south than 10 meet with any losses.
THE FORTY-FOUK CLOSE DISTRICTS
are distributed follows, tie name and
politics of the sitting member, his plurality at
the last election and The vote cast in his dis
trIct outside OF the two great parties being
given:
California.-1st district Henley, dem, I45
plurality, 321 pro. vote: 9th district Mark
ham. rep. 4u7 plurality; 81 pro-, 236 gIeeno.
vote.
Connecticut. - 1st district, Buck. rep,
3o4 plurality; 40 pro-, 237 greenb. 4th DIS
WIZ, oCs AAOuAs ASAAss Aoo PaAiaAityS W. pIO.,
llinoiS.-lOth district, Wortnington, dem,
176 plurality; 81 greenb. 11th district, Neece,
aen., AT plurality; $40 pro. 10Th district,
Cannon, rep, 547 Plurality: 34O pro. lGln d.s-
trict. Landes. DEM. 3Is plurality; 17o pro.
pro ass sh 1ar rep l9o
6I3 plurality; 0u2 greenb.; ~ l scattering. ION
district, owen, rep, 4sl plurality; 473 greene.
llth district, Steele, rep, 81 plurality; 1224
greenb.
Iowa-1st district, Hall, dem., 20 plurality;
1O6 scattering. 4th district, Fuller, rep, 23U
majority. 5tn district. Frederick, dem, I3s
plurality; SO scattering. 6tu district, " eaveT,
DEM and yreenb., 61 majority. 9tn district,
Lyman, rep, 5S1 p.urality. ,,
1O2 majority. 1ltn district, Woliord, dem,
Loaisiana.-sa district, Gray, dem., es7
majority.
M..ne-lst district, Reed, rep, sl5 plural
ity; l9u greenb.
Mary yiIuu-5tn district, Compton, dem, 97I
majority.
Aiassachusetts-6th district, Lowering dem.,
265 plurality, go pro.
Michigan-2d district, Eldridge, dem., 81 plu-
raiiiy. Z4iS pro. 4tn district, burrows, rep,
800 plurality, 1892 pro. 5in district, COM
stock, DEM. 500 plurality; 2449 pro.
NeUra,ka-1st district, Weaver, rep, 975
plurality; 1U24 pro.
Nevai;l-W uouburn, rep, SIS majority.
New Jersey-6ti district, Lehiback, rep, 344
New Iork-23d district, spriggs, dem, s37
plurai,y; si0 ,aS pro- 53a dstries dFarsuasr,
u,
Wener, rep, 6Ol plurality; 9o9 pro.
Ohlo-3a district, Campbell, dem., 412 plu-
raiity: 153 pro-, 6I greene. 4th district, Amer
SON, dem, 3Ol plurality; 229 pro-, IA greenb.
1Otn district, ttomeis, rep; 23S plurality, 2US
pro. 1ILh district, Ellsberry, dem, 4Iu major
lily. l6th district, Geddes, dem., 693 plurality:
900 pro. l7tn district, Warner, dem, 2I6
plurality; 214 pro-. 81 greenD.
Pennsyivania-l3tn district, Brumm, rep,
91O majority. 27th district, Scott, dem, 662
plurality, 1907 scattering.
Tennessee-sd dlsIrict, Neal. dem., 60 major
ity. 10th district, Taylor, rep, 5s6 majority.
plurality; 1856 pro. 4th district, Van Schaick
rep, $40 plurality; 1,Z96 greenb., 226 pro.
As matter of course in some OF these dis
tricts exceptional causes may have operated to
such is the lact it TO show that the district
is none the less doubtful
THE SITUATION IN VARIOUS STATES
In Ohio the democrats are certain to lose sew
eral representatives, because of the redistrict-
ing OF the state by the republican legislature
As for Indiana the democrats may lose a dis
trict there through internal STRIFE over the nom-
ination, but if party lines are closely drawn the
republicans may lose, as they hold two or three
districts by very slim pluralities. In Missouri
the democrats are likely to regain the Kansas
City district. but they may lose some other one,
SO that it is not improbable that the state dele
CATION will remain as IL now Is. In New York
it is scarcely probable that the democrats
will hold as many districts AS they now have,
though their losses in one district may be offset
by gains in another: Ihey Will recover the AL
buny district, lost two years ago by party dis
senslOn. 1t will be u difficult task Ior the re-
pubIicans to capture the House. The democrats
can lose all their close districts and still retain
. respectable majority. Without any stirring
politics in o Quiescent state, il Is natural that
some districts shall be lost through indifference
but this effect will operate upon the two parties
ek,au A.