Staunton spectator. [volume] (Staunton, Va.) 1849-1896, 1886-11-03
From Bear to Bull.

ue1verleS OF wheat by western producers
the quotations continue depressed. This
state of things will remain till the main
bulk of the crop is out of first hands when
the change will come. The truth is, the
farmers of the West and Northwest are not
in a condition to hold their grain, for the
proportion of indebtedness to be discharged
with the proceeds of the last harvest is
greater in those States than it is on the At
lantic slope.
The New York Commercial Bulletin,
commenting on the future of the breadstuff
markets, notes that whilst there is no essen
tial change since the result of the worlds
harvests of 1886, was ascertained, remarks,
that "the situation has been steadily devel-
oping under the steady consumptive de-
mand in Europe decreasing stocks until
even the most bearish spectators here have
become satisfied that the end of declining
markets is near at hand, and that SO soon as
the impoverished farmers forced early
movement of the crops falls off, the short side
of the market will become bed of thorns
instead of roses, as it has been for four years
past Hence the steady, though slow, but
radical change in the speculative position Of
these markets, and of the large operators who
have been forced by the gradual harden
ing of European markets to abandon their
purpose of driving prices still lower before
turning to the bull side of these staples
With this year the bears summer will be
over, their harvest ended, and if anything
is to be saved it will be by forsaking the
error of their ways and accepting the logic
of the changed conditions of supply and de-
mand and of general business, which are
completely reversed from those existing the
past four years. The periods of initiation
and bull speculation and of depression and
bear-raiding follow each other with almost
unvarying regularity and each consumes
from two to four years, according to the
varying conditions of war and peace in the
commercial world. In times of universal
peace three years is the shortest cycle and
four years is generally the longest. From
1878 to 1882 we had the most rampant bull
craze this country has ever seen. From
1882 to 1886 this country has passed through
the worst bear craze it has ever seen. The
depression from 1878 to 1878 was prolonged
another year because it was a period not
only of commercial liquidation, but of re-
turn from war to peace basis of values.
This process began in 1866, at the close of
our civil war. But it was arrested before
completed, first, by the Austro Prussian war
in 1866, followed by the Franco German
war of 1870, by which the restoration of the
peace basis of values throughout the COM
mercial world was delayed until after 1878.
Hence the period of depression from 1879
to 1878 was a war as well as commercial
liquidation, and therefore lasted five years.
SO the intensity of the boom that begaa in
1878 was again due in part to the Russo:
Turkish war, and that initiation lasted the
full limit of a peace cycle, OF four years,
followed by an equal period of equally in
tense depression and liquidation.
Thus the causes and effects are easily
traced and the limits of these periods deter.
mined with almost the exactness of the time
required for the revolution of planet. The
laws of commerce are as fixed as are those
of the heavenly bodies, and can be relied
upon to assert themselves in due time with
equal force. Hence the speculative senti
ment in these markets is as certainly chang.
ing from the bear to the bull side, to re.
main while present conditions exist, as the
earth turns around and day succeeds the
night. AS stated recently. the belief is
that the movement of Spring wheat will
fall off permanently, and as much sooner
than usual as it has been heavier and EARL.
er. When, therefore, this shall occur. land
it is expected in November) Europe may be
relied on to come in as heavier and steadie1
buyer than for three years, as she has been
only waiting for our bears to get through
raiding our markets before coming in to
take our surplus and make good her deficit
until another CROP