New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1886-07-01
IRISH ELECTION FORECAST:
PROBABLE HOME RULE GAINS.
ONLY ONE NATIONALIST SEAT IN DANGER-AN IN
yAsION OF ULSTER.

ONLY ONE NATIONALIST shhi i-> D"''N-'
vAsION OF ULSTER
ley CABLE TO THE TRrBUSEl
CopvrfoAt 1886; North american Cdtte Nsrs co.
Drp11N June 3O.-I find the Nationallsts III
Ireland in high spirits the election prospects, here
"a b,rdseye view OF how they stand and what 'hey
count upon: ,,
The Nationals now hold cightyve seats In Ireland
OF these only onc-South Tyrone-s III real oanger ANS
at the election was won py the re-
dorht.b,e editor of lnei Ireland, william OBr,en'
and by a very small majority. have made specia IN
oures extending to both parties IN the contes' ~ " ~
chances for the Nationaists in this constituency Anu
nv I'm mpressions-based on the Information nave TO
ceivcd-are that William OBrien will win py 'arsor
majority than he at the last election Ims vic"
:. stronylv emphasized by telegram have just re-
ceiyel from OI3rien himself In which ne says 'h"''
although the fight will bo fierce he leeis pre''' oo"
fdcnt OF victory South Tyrone Is the focus OF
and the election well other In the Nor'h pes
held in the neighborhood OF the anniversary Oh 'ho
Battle Of the Boync which is tho height OF the
mems rabd season. Is to be recognized as TACT tha'
bandicaps the Naonallss somewhat; ordinary iar play
In such a time berg altogether forgotten
Rut even This am convinced from what have OBJ
served during my tour will not prove u Iac'or sHons
enoeh to oyertear the growth OF Home Euie thae huo
crown up In Ulster since the introduction OF uiau
stones Home Rule bill The Tories believe that Desiue
south Tyrone they likely to take back south Derry
from Hcaly but they have not the ghost OF chancc
This disposes OF the eightynve seats Besiues 'hese
there are two seats by The Tories the NatonaS's
have fair prospects OF winning, namely, west Deas''
which regard nearly certain Tor SEXTON an" Doi'
ctv assailed by Justin Mccarthy. which may Dc
marked off as hopeful. The strategic Importance VI
capturing either OF those seats would DC enor"ou''
With Nationalist sitting for the capital OF ulster OF
for tbe home of the Orange prentice boys the whole
bottom would knocked out OF the orange LoSaii''
| argument. ,,o
Than again Liberal candidates pledged to Home huie
ara likely 10 win in constituencies North lyrono
and North Antrm-where q thnroughgoin9 farhoi'i'o
| wond have no chance Thus l believe on the WHO'S
rssut Of snc elections will be to increase TUG
strength the Nationalist party by at least one Vo'e'
the Liberal Home Rule party by Two, anu 'hercioro "
lessen the Tory strength by three
curious split has taScn place In the orange camp
In Ballast Major saunderson who had been Parament-
arv leader of the Orange party oalls for young actve
men to assist him. Tories OF North Belfast were
rrunfng the sitting iemDer who Is old aud decrept ho
| be has nitted against him Orange candidate OF
,ouyher mould the Captain Maxwell who opposed WIZ
| lam O'Brien in South Tyrone last election. tbs
action has much inccnsed the Tories OF the oiaeh
school who threaten to retaliate by opposing
eaunderson and his swashDuckers In their own coH'
stituecics Natonasts are watching this fanily jar
with cheerful interest Loyalists making up their
minds 10 return to las, years policy OF starting DO rs
candidates in Southern constituencies for the SAKE OF
| nnttiup Nationalists TO expense They have areadJ
! entered opposition Sir Thomas Esmonde, hr Dwyer
Gray and Mr.. r. Harrington in Dublin, ana 10 Mt l. l.
Gil IN South Louth but doubt IL they will persist
The amount of money the Nationalist party Is receVhe
from America the 20 days is frightening the sensi-
be and hard headed Loyalist from war OF money
merely rncy rsoc that two play at that game
| T. I. GILL