Los Angeles daily herald. [microfilm reel] (Los Angeles [Calif.]) 1884-1890, 1886-07-30
win There be a scarcity of
WnentT

Since there has been reported shrink.
ace Ii this years wheat crop ia the
United States, from earliest es 'imates. OF
10, 0OO, 900 to 30,00e,0O0 bushels, aud
advices Of unfayorable weather for crops
in Europe, notably in the United King
dom. France and Southern Russia, some
surprise is manifested that the late i'm
provement in wheat has not been even
greater. The last crop in Australia
having proved failure, and the
wheat Weld of India for lSS5-86 being
reported nearly $1,000. 600 bushels I'M
der that of the previous year, also tend
to impart confidence to those who are
interested in wheat and take hopeful
view OF the situation. While the crop
was poor in Australia, shows some de-
crease in India, and will probably prove
light in portions of Europe, the tact re-
maius, that leaving Europe out of the
calcula lion, the wheat crop of the re-
n.ainder of the world is larger than in
1885. South America has an increase
yield of about 100000 bushels over
that of The previous year, and in the
United States, making allowance for
damage by drouth in the West and
Northwest, the crop gives promise Of
being over $4,000, 200 bushels greater
than was realized from the harvest pre-
ceding. In this estimate California is
credited with 100000 short tons for
total crop, which is surely conservative.
as persons who claim to have canvassed
the field thoroughly do not hesitate to
predict that this State will have more
than this for export alone. Manitoba,
from ali accounts, will also
have some increase in yield. In
India and all countries south of the
equator, the decrease in yield from that
Of 1885 is placed at 80. 900, 600 bushels.
while the increase in North America, not
counting Canadl is given by recognized
authorities at rs, 600, 600 bushels. For
several years preceding the last the
worlds yield was in excess of require
ments. The 1885 crop is stated to have
been So, 0O0, 900 bushels short Of the
worlds annual consumption, but as
about l25, 900, 600 bushels were carried
over from the crop Of 1884. there was
still a surplus of 10000, 900 bushels
presumably on hand to be added to this
years wheat. The 1885 crop of the
world is now given at 2. 10000. 900
bushels. Add to this the 0,000, 900
bushels which should be still on hand
Of old wheat. and the 5000, 600 bush
els increase outside of Europe, as above
shown, and we have 2, 226, 900, 900 sh-
els, against ar estimated total annual
consumption Of the world of 2, l65, 000,.
600 bushels, leaving an excess of 81.
00O, 900 bushels for the crop year Of
1861 In other words, the crop in Eu-
rope would admit OF shrinkage of
go, 000, 900 bushels without causing any
real scarcity in wheat. the consumption
being the same as in 1885. Such
shrinkage or greater is possible in the |
EuropeanIcrop, but hardly probable. In
central continental Europe good yield |
is generally predicted. Russia is a
dark horse" on the wheat question,
little being ever known of her harvest
in advance. Her crop last year was
light, and she may have
a poor yield this year without showing
any decrease. Exports were heavy it is
true, but from reserves of pre- |
vious years. The figures on which |
above computations are made are from
or equally authentic
sources, and il they are in error it can |
not be attributed to bias. Exports from
the United States in the past harvest
year in wheat aud it's equivalent have
not msch exceeded, If they have
equalled, 90, 600, 900 bushels. Allowing
the same liberal supply at the beginning
of the next harvest year as at the open
ing Of this--about So, 600, 900 bushels
we could export fully $4,000. 900 bush
els more than in the year just
closed; or, without reducing reserves
to dangerously low proportions, we
could spare. Oh present estimates Of crop,
fully lao, 900, 900 bushels, being over so
per cent. more than was shipped last
year, and within l6,000,000 bushels Of
the entire amount imported by the
United Kingdom in 1885. Higher prices
may, aud likely will be realized for
wheat. but it appears probable that this
viii be more on account Of values being
low to producers, or through
speculative dealings, than on account of
any actual shortage in the supply, as
with the worlds needs. -Gro-
Ger and Country Merchant.