Savannah morning news. [volume] (Savannah) 1868-1887, 1886-09-20
AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS.
The Department Defended Against
the Charge of Inaccuracy.

WASHINGTON, Sept. ,-Statistlcian
| Dodge, OF the Department of Agriculture,
has prepared a statement in reply to the
charges Of inaccuracy which have been
brought against the crop estimates, which
he has from time to time put forth. In it
he has this to say about last years cotton
! crop:
| The record Of the cotton movement of
| the product OF 1885 is now complete. The
! National Cotton Exchange makes it g.
! $40. .691 bales. The Financial Chronicle
record aggregates 6,550, ,215 bales OF 4S5.4
pounds each, against 5,669 02l bales OF
| 42l.2l pounds; or in pounds 3,lI9, ,45G,09l
and 2,727, ,96T,3l7 pounds respectively,
showing an increase OF 451, ASS, TIA pounds,
or 1876 per cent. over the crop grown in
| 1884. In actual bales the increase by this
| record is SS1 1874 and in bales of the same
size as those of 1884, 93S. .236.
1t is n noteworthy fact, and cheering
indication to growers OF the worlds sup
! ply OF cotton, that an increase of more
than IS per cent. has caused decline in
export value according to the record of
exports for the year ended June 30) of
less than per cent. Had the present
crop been sold at the price paid for the
previous ore, the growers would have re-
ceived scarcely 500, 900, 900 more.
The cotton movement II assumed to he
as that error land the two statements dit-
| fer by %, 600 bales last year and $1,000
the year betore), does not necessarily
represent exactly the product grown In
| given year, but does so substantially, and
affords the best available test Of the accu-
racy of our crop returns. What is the
result OF this test?
Stated briefly, the last four crops since
the return of the present statistician to
| his work have been indicated, with one
exception, with nearly as much precision
as by the ultimate record OF the move
ment itself, the discrepancies being a
fraction of l per cent. No nOn-oflicial
estimates have approached the depart
mental results IN degree and uniformity
of accuracy, and some of them have made
annual discrepancies ot'a fourth to half a
million bales.
In 1882 the October condition was 89,
| indicating 10 per cent. more than au
| average product, and compared with sc
for the previous year, "would indicate
nearly 1000, 600 bales" In November the
returns Of yield per acre indicated more
than 5000, ,000,0 900 pound 9 of net lint, but
this was not given as the full estimate of
the years production. In the final report
the local estimates footed up 6,S35 900
| bales, which was assumed to be Slightly
underestimated, the statistician adding:
''Should these returns of product prove
conservative as usual, the movement
would not be less than 100000 bales"
The National Cotton Exchange made its
ultimate record of the movement $780,
1856 bales, and the Financial Chronicle
6,992, ,234 bales.
In October, 1888, it was said: "Indica-
tiOns point to a crop a little larger than
tina of 1881 (Which was 5,45e 949), but
falling short of last crop by more than
1,C00,O00 bales" The local ESTIMATES OF
yield per acre pointed to reduction of IA
to IA per cent. The returns give expee-
tatIon of about 100000 bales, hut the
final report in February indicated a crop
somewhat less than 100000 bales, or
from "a to sc per cent. of the previous
crop. This was 2 or 3 per cent. too high,
as the movement was 5,713,200 bales, be-
tween 80 and 83 per cent. of the previous
crop. This is the only season of recent
years in which the discrepancy was as
much as per cent.
The crop of 1884 in OCTOBER was re-
ported in lower condition than in Septem-
ber by eight points, and the prospect of
top crop, as reported, was "reduced to q
minimum" though the county estimates
averaged thirty-siX huudredths Of a bale
per acre. The December report indica-
ted a smaller weld than the returns of
condition in October, and the aggregat e
OF local estimates was 5,646, AL bales
and the statisticiaH summed up the ex-
pectation from all these returns of "a
crop of about five and Lwo-thrd
million bales.o The Financial Chroni-
Gle record was 5669,021 bales, and
that of the National Cotton Exchange
5,706, 1855 bales.
In October of 1885 the prospect was
more favorable than in November and
December. The county estimates of Yield
per acre, when consolidated, made an
average of 80 75-100 of a baie per acre.
which would forecast a crop OF nearly six
aud two-thrds millions. The reports OF
condition the same month were equally
favorable, indicating an increase OF 1000
900 bales in round mum bers. "subiect to
future meteorological condtions." and
not to be considered final estimate, "as
the date of killing frost and the autumn
weather may easily cause variation OF
a quarter of a million bales"
In November it was reported that "the
top crop is very light, and In many places
scarcely an appreciable quantity" these
returns were local estimates Of yield per
acre in pounds, which were somewhat
lower, looking to yield OF about q, 800 600
bales. The final report summed up the
crop prospects in these words: "The in
dlcations point to crop approximatin <
the November estimates Of yield per acre,
which looked to product slightly ex-
ceeding 6.0O0, ,000."
The recorded movement stands: BY the
Financial Chronicle, 6,55O,2l5 bales; by
the National Cotton Exchange, 6,575,6
bales. In bales OF the same size OF those
Of 1884 the increase over the crop OF that
year exceeds 100000, and in "statistical
bales" of 450 pounds the increase is almost
exactly round million.
Thus the crop of 1859 was fOreshadowed
as fairly and almost as fully as 1t could
| have been if the result mad been published
year in advance of the completion OF the
| actual count OF bales.
1t is 81 per cent. Of the cotton product
Ui the world, though American cotton
! planting IS nm industrial growth OF less
| thnn a hundred years, While ndia, the
| original source of commercial cotton,
! produces only a third as much.
BULGARIA AND THE BEAR.
Alcxander's People Not willing 10
Don the Yoke of the Gar.
SOFIA, Sept. 19.--Tne Russian agent
/ 4