New-York tribune., 1886-08-03
POLITICAL G UESSES

As the end of the Congressional session ap-
ploaches, speculation is busy in regard TO the
results of the ccming elections. 1t Is but nat
NAL that adhercnts of different parties look at
the matter from different points of view. But
nohticians of the ordinary sort, whether
Danocrats or Republicans seem to be asleed
in expecting that the elections this year
will not be very unlike the last
Reasoning on that basis, the ordinary
Democratic politician easily figures ont for his
party majority i'll the House. while 'he oiui-
nuy Rcpubli politician finds 1t dllllcuit 10
reckon up Republican victory. Thus care
fl estimate is published by one journal, sad 10
be prepared by an active Republican, which
claims that the Republicans will ealn one mem
Der in each of the following States: Florida
Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Virginia and len
nessee two members in Indiana three each III
Ohio and Michigan, and four i'll Ncw-l York, while
the Democrats will gain one III California ana
one in Wisconsin. The net result would he a
Democratic IN Ijority of thirteen III the House.
This mode of reckoning is the play OF " liam
lct y with the part of Hamlet omitted by special
rGuest. 1t leaves out of sight the only lmpor-
tant element in the problem. namely, the judg-
mcnt of the people regarding the conduct oI
the Democratic party upon IT. return to power
What If has done and tried TO do, within Il year
and a h.lf OF its administ atCn Of pubhc
affairs, viii come up tins fall FOR judgment.
If the people judge Is pMil>an> only all loi'neF
Rcpublicans censuling the shortcomings ol lhc
party in power. and all who supported IicVcLhd
and helped to elect the majority IN the present
Congress approving the conduct OF both tIch II
is evident that the few changes above mentioned
are about all that can be expected.
II is one of the most instructive phenomena
Of the time that habtual politicians are apt 10
count upon popular ignorance and popular par
,i>anship as permanent and unvMymg lorccN.
Theoretically, these politicians know that elcc-
tons do not reflect an unvarylng division ol
public opinion. They know that trmcndou>
victories are sometimes followed, ye'iI oi TWO
ltcr by overwhelming defeats. But such l.
thc density of mind which habit produces. that
these oyerturns always come upon the ordinary
nolitic;an rs amazing and ncxplicable sulprl~'S
Leaders of broader mind and higher thoughts
often anticipate them with certainty, but The
average politician is amazed to find that Il
change Of 10 per cent OF the voters from one
uarty to the other. or from one party 10 the
.auks of the Indifferent st.Iy-at homoN, his
caused a revolution.
The oucstion this year is whether the people
have any definite daTncnt to express regarding
eighteen months of Democratic COVE nmcnt'
other than that which they expressed when
Democrats were making profnse promises III
1854. If they have not if they are a. ignorant
O, indifferent as ordinary Democratic polite
,ans snnpose. there Will be D,mocr,uc ma
;o,itv in the next House. But If the people
have an .nielli gent opinion about what h'us been
going on, if they are indignant at the discovery
tlat Democratic reform l. cheat, II thcy h'
| Inundated at the removals and appointments
which have been made III the name ol iclo' H.
if they are outraged because then Interests Fave
| Hccn neglected while Democrat, have wi.Inglcd
! and PLAYED the dem IgOguc, then We shall scc 81
| change of votes and Il political revolution. II
will am1zc the ordinary Democratic politicians
| whcn il cnn,4s. as USUAL because they calculate
that the people are aS Indifferent to the public
welfare, as c;t,ell,ss about public honesty and ~
| Ignorant of public questions, as themselves
Talk about the disturbing influence Of pIohi-
btion or labor tickets is usually based upon the
same mistaken notion IN rgnd TO public opIn-
icn. When the p' ople are Indifferent IN regard
to pending quc>tions,o or care little winch OF two
| palucs Is luJi>t'u WIFI P"N'I' 'i'" '"'S "'
| not unit.idy To cast votes iOr tickets winch have
| 70 chance Of Success But whenever tile pcopl'
are strongly moved by conviction III amy dnec-
;ion, the third parties dwlndlc and the diag-
glers disappear. If there is in the public mind
a strong conviction that the DcmoCraic patty
Is unworthy OF lis tIlSt and unfit Tor responsible
| itv, that conviction will lind expression III
| Republican victories. The PiOnbtlOni-ts anG
tie E,boring people will take care to vote where
! Their votes will count. If there Is not such Il
conviction, it will make little difference whcthcI
the success of the Democratic party is helped
more OF less by its various allies