The Columbian. [volume] (Bloomsburg, Pa.) 1866-1910, 1886-07-16
The Crop Outlook.

If ordinary newspaper readers were
compelled to accept the conflicting crop
reports which have been put forth
within the last week or two there
would be great many promising can
didates for the insane asylums. The
bulls and the bears in wheat have been
tlinging conflicting figures at each other
during that period with recklessness
that could not be anything but bewild-
ering to the ordinary mortal. For
time the bulls seemed to have it all
their own way, but within the last day
or two there has been a reaction and
prices have settled more or less.
1t is too early, of course, to arrive at
definite conclusions upon this subject,
but there are some general features of
the situation that begin to manifest
themselves more or less clearly. The
Rural New Yorker, from statistics
based upon over four thousand crop re-
ports, figures the probable yield of
winter wheat at 295,OOO,OOO, against
2l2,OO0,0O0 bushels last year. 1t
must be remembered that this wheat is
past any chance of serious injury by
dry weather. This leaves the spring
wheat as the only really uncertain
quantity. This the same authority
places at about l40,00O,00O CT bushels
as against l45, 100000 last year, max
ing the total wheat crop for the season
nearly SO,O00,0O0 bushels greater than
last year.
As an offset to this hopeful view the
Mccormick Reaper Company, of Chi
cago, about week ago issued a circu-
lar stating that the condition of spring
wheat had declined in June thirteen
per cent. and winter wheat three per
cent, change that would imply a
probable yield of 405,OOO,OOO bushels,
or about 50,000,000 greater than last
year. The Chicago Tribune, in COM
menting on the Mccormick estimate
got up an estimate of its own, reducing
the totals to 370,000,00O bushels, as
against 357, 7,00O,0O0 last year. On the
strength of this last estimate prices in
Chicago were forced up from five to
Ten per cent. Later reports, however,
show that in the best of the Dakota
and Minnesota spring wheat counties
the drought has not proven so injurious
as at first reported. There is little
doubt that serious injury has been done
to this crop in Southern Minnesota and
Southern Dakota as well as in some
portions of Iowa and Wisconsin. The
winter wheat having shown so good
a condition and being now past injury
by drought, there is little reason to
doubt that the total crop will be con-
siderably in excess of last year, even
if the worst that has been said of in-
jury by drought to the spring wheat
should prove true.
AS to the other crops, hay is abund,
ant and out of the way of drought.
Oats can be materially injured yet by
long-continued dry weather. Corn is
a crop that thrives best with plenty of
heat and roots deep enough TO stand a
good deal of drought without serious
injury. Potatoes are generally best
both 10 quality and quantity in seasons
that are more than ordinarily dry. On
the whole, therefore, the probabilities
are that the present will prove more
than an average crop year in the
United States. If this should prove
to be the case the question of prices
will still be Influenced somewhat by
the crop condition abroad. That there
will be enough and to spare for home
consumption there can be no sort of
question. That the foreign demand
will be large enough to cause mater
ial advance in prices is matter for
the future 10 determine.-2ymes.