Savannah morning news. [volume] (Savannah) 1868-1887, 1885-07-09
corToN,s nK1eHr OUTLOOK.
The Prospects Tor "A Big Yield and Facts
About the Crop,


About the Crop.
Probably the prospects for large yield
Of cotton are as brigat now as they have
ever been before. The season was late IN
commencing, but as there was no early
warm spell. followed by renewed cold, no
material injury resulted. From the time OF
planting the conditions have been uni-
f0rmly favorable. 4 good stand was se-
cured on a largely increased ACREAGE.
The bureau reported the condition in
June to average 80. Since then there
have been no complaints oi any import
ance. and the July report viii probably
Dee raised % 90 or 81. possibly even more.
II is true that the July condition is usual
/ IL the seasons best, but while the reports
THIS time last year were favorable, they
were not nearly SO bright as they are now.
We have never yet had three successive
crop failures. aud. considering that the
! acreage is fully 10 per cent. more than
| the year of the l,0OO,0 Op-bale crop, il
/ seems not unreasonable 10 anticipate that
/ we will raise the high water mark OF the
/ crop record. II is of course worse than
useless to attempt any definite estimate
/ so early in the season, but if the weather
conditions are only fairly good from now
on. we should get about 1000 900 bales
this figure to be exceeded or otherwise in
proportion as the conditions are above or
below the average II may be remarked
that ia many localities in Texas the farm
ers are already exulting, and say that
large crop is assured. However, think
this is a little premature.
What, then, are the prospects for prices
next season?
The fan months in New York, now be-
low 10 cents, are about as low as they
usually have gone for many years, and
the opinion Of the greater part OF the trade
seems 10 be that cotton is cheap enough,
and that purchases at about current rates
will eventually pay handsome profit.
There are three important factors 70 be
considered in forecasting prices. First,
there is the probable supply. Strong par
ties could doubtless easily manipulate
the summer months, and probably Sep
TENDER, putting up prices about where
they pleased, provided enough lambs
could be found to indulge in short sales
of near months. Disaster to the growing
crop would lend great strength 20 the
position. but, as we nave seen. il will be
best TO count on a liberal supply next
season.
Next, we must not forget tc consider
the state Of general trade throughout the
country. 1t is very bad at present, and
the short wheat crop, with the other
features of the present aspect, make it
very doubtful about any great improve
ment in the near future. The conserva-
tive conclusion must be that the trade
outlook is not very encouraging, though
some improvement is likely in the fall.
Lastly, there is the value Of money.
Prices are merely relative. Other things
equal, if dollar will buy more, generally.
next season than it could buy five years
ago, it will also buy more cotton, and yet
the cotton will be worth quite as much.
Bacon is remarkably cheap, with no i'm
mediate prospect of being higher Corn
promises to be cheap, with fine crop con-
ditiOn. Even flour Is cheap, despite the
wheat failure. All other articles are also
below their usual average-dry goods
especially SO. Furthermore, the value Of
the dollar itself Is apt to be enhanced by
stopping the coinage of the fraudulent
silver dollar. All these things count
against the price Of cotton.
If the crop turns out well there is every
probability that the price will be even
lower than now indicated by the quota
tiOns for futures.
In the natural order of events the mar
ket would drag along, gradually dropping
as the promise of large yield became
more assured. But little spurts of ac-
tiyity and temporary firmuess are bound
to accompany any apprehension of dam
age, reinforced by the desire to buy .'bn-
low 10 cents on general principles. Thus
more or less extensive long interest is
apt to be created between now and the
opening OF the season. When these over
confident bulls find that the market
remains stagnant, AS if weighted down by
an incubus, persistently giving way after
every little up-turn, they will do as they
have done time and again-get tired and
begin TO unload. Something like this Is
liable to occur, and depress prices even
lower than the situation calls for. | see
no grounds for an advance in cotton while
crop accounts are good and trade ac-
counts bad. In fact, it is to be feared
that middlings will sell IN Savannah at 9
cents, and perhaps lower, when the enOr-
nous pressure of the new crop is fairly
upon the market. Perhaps the marketing
of large crop will help to stimulate gene
raj business and thus react on the price
Of cotton. AT any rate, we must hope for
the best. But those who feel confident
that cotton can't stay below 10 cents IN
New York, because it has not done so IN
past years, may find themselves mistaken.
A