New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1885-04-11
U4R IND COMMf ICE.

A great excitement ana n sharp auNhhco III
prices on account of the warlike aspect OF
news from Asia, would not be considered at all
unreasonable if there had not been n considera-
bic advance some time ago, with no other basis
than an expectation of war between England
and Russia Some advance in prices some actual
Improvement in business would doubtless re-
suit from such n struggle Hosea Biglow
wi sely remarked, Civilization sometimes does
cit forrd on powder cart, and so does com
m cree, particularly for nations not engaged IN
the fighting. Supplies of various kinds Will be
reGuired by the beligerents from this country,
and the disturbance of British commerce, or mt
least the fear Of its interruption by hostile
cruisers, will be likely to throw a larger share
of the worlds carrying trade into the hands OF
other nations Russian oil will not compete with
American in Great Britain, and Russian grain
will be exported but little, except by rail, until
the struggle has terminated. Yet there is room
to doubt whether the markets have not already
anticipated greater advantages than will be
realized.
In the oil market, for instance, there is preva-
lent notion thai the war, if it begins, will stop
entirely the competition of Russian oil with
American. But neither Germany, Turkey nor
Russia, so far "a can now be anticipated, and it
is in those countries that the consumption OF
Russian oil has recently increased materially.
Only 100000 gallons are said to have been
sent west of these countries as yet. The ship
ments, moreover, are made by the Black Sea
and Danube or by rail, and the expected war
would in no way interfere with rail shipments,
nor with shipments by sea in neutral vessels
Unless Turkey heartily takes sides with Eng
and, notwithstanding Egyptian causes of ILL
feeling, the commerce between Russia and
Turkey, or between Russia and Austria and
Hungary, may be but little interrupted. IL is ut
all events premature TO assume that all th s
commerce is Ia
The grain business has different basis for
improvement. Russian exports of wheat have
in past years formed considerable part of the
supply of Great Britain, and at times of France.
Grain traffic with Great Britain would be en-
tircy stopped by war; and perhaps all grain
traffic with France. so that Russia would have
no other outlet except through Germany by
rail. The necessity of supporting large army
east of the Caspian Sea, however would
materially lessen the Russian surplus avail
able for export. But the markets have been
behaving as il it were certain that Russia, instead
of exporting less wheat, would be obliged t.
import an enormous quantity. No intelligent
estimate will put the surplus of wheat in this
country at less than 100, 900, 900 bushels 1t is
more than twelve years since Russian exports to
Great Britain have exceeded 5000, 900 bushels
in year. IF not bushcl of grain were to go
out of Russia for years to come, and il the whole
of The increased demand thus Occasoncd should
be supplied by the United States, it would re-
quire three years or more for that increased de-
mand to clear away the surplus we now have on
hand. In view of the fact that Germany and
France have taken steps to protect their
farmers against imports of foreign grain, and
thus to encourage increased production. it does
not seem clear that the increased demand or
account of war would much exceed the decrease
in demand resulting from such measures.
1t is characteristic of Americans that we
ovardo speculation, ~ we do almost everything
else. by discOunting the future too largely.
Prices Of grain have already been lifted so far
that any foreign demand is likely TO be checked
by that cause alone. But unless that demand
should greatly increase, the continuing pressure
of enormous stocks on hand would soon tend
TO depress prices again. Those who are buy
ing, or were on Thursday, at a price near 81
per bushcl for No. red winter, seem To forget
that foreign markets are already mainly sup
piled for the crop year, that our surplus uncon-
sumcd and unsold is likely to much exceed the
entire exports of Russia for three years, and
that the supply of new wheat is now only about
eighty days distant Under these circum-
stances, it wolld be easy to prepare the way Cor
a disastrous collapse in the grain market by
too sudden and large advance.