St. Paul daily globe. [volume] (Saint Paul, Minn.) 1884-1896, 1885-05-11
Republished from Sundays Globe.
PEACE VERY INSECURE.
Sentiment Prevailing in London that
Arbitration is Likely to Fail.
No Signs of Relaxation in the Prepa-
$685.. rations for War.

LONDON, May o. The Anglo Russian
situation continues to be enyelOped i'm a
cloud OF uncertainty. 1t is absolutely i'm
possible to predict what day may bring
forth. No sooner had people begun to be-
come reconciled to the idea of the submits
sion of the difficulty to arbitration than re-
ports began to prevail questioning the
probability of there being any arbitra-
ton, after all the talk as to the
great things it was about to accomplish.
Tonight no one processes to understand
what the precise condition of the negotia-
tons with Russia may be. The average
Englishman finds it difficult, if not abso-
luteIy impossible, to disabuse himself of the
feeling that whatever Mr.. Gladstone and
Earl Granville may say to the contrary. the
Russian diplomatists are getting the better
of the British. Every delay in
the negotiations has redounded
ministers have been talking the Russian
railway has been actively pushed to the
Afghan frontier and the Russians troops
have seized the debatable territory These
are facts, and the average Briton grows inn
patient when the attempt is made to belittle
their Importance, or obscure them with
cloud of words. The position of affairs to-
night is so involved in
UNCERTAINTY AND DOUBT
as to create general feeling of insecurity.
The feeling that the proposed arbitration is
likely to fall through gains weight from the
announcement made to-day that there is
likely to be considerable delay in preparing
the preliminary details. There is no deny
ing that this announcement is received by
many people with smile The delay, it is
said, will be necessary in order to allow the
cabinets of the two countries to come to a
decision upon the precise points to be sub
mitted to the arbitrator. Some people pro-
fess to think that this process of arriving at
preliminary understanding will be SO
fruitful source Of delay that chances of
the arbitration taking place at all are de-
cidedly slight The cabinets, it is thought,
may find themselves as much at sea in de-
Gliding what shall be submitted to the arbi-
TRAITOR as they were in trying to come to
an understanding in regard to
original difficulty. It is humorously sug-
gesied that they may be obliged to resort to
preliminary arbitration in order to deter
mine
WHAT SHALL BE SUBMITTED
to the arbitrator. The possibilities of this
sort OF diplomacy opens UP rich field to
the imaginative statesman. This view Of
the situation gains additional likelihood
when one considers the latest exchange of
views that has taken place between
Earl Granville, secretary of state for foreign
affairs, and Baron DeStaal, the Russian
minister. Between these diplomats differ
ences of opinion about such primary ques-
tions as the scope of the proposed arbitra-
ton and the zone of delimitation still re-
main unsettled. Whether these divergent
views can be reconciled, and a common
standpoint reached from which to con-
slider the main question, is by
no means certain. Baron DeStaal
has proposed that the whole
scheme of arbitration shall be abandoned,
in case comparison of the evidence re-
garding the Penjdeh incident shall be found
to sustain Russia'S Interpretation of the
agreement of March II. Earl Granville is
inclined to accede to this proposition, but
only on condition that Russia will grant
definite treaty, in which she shall pledge
herself not to make any further
ADVANCE INToAFG HANIsTAN.
There is little likelihood that Russia
would make any such treaty as Earl Gran
vile suggests. There is increasing reason
to believe that the possession of Penjdeh
has Whetted the appetite of the vofaciOns
Russian bear, and that nothing but Herat
will long appease its cravings. Russians
here in London, who are Oh terms of init
macy with officials of the Russian
embassy, do not hesitate to declare openly
that Russia intends to take Herat. They
assert that it will be an easy matter to OBJ
tain the assent of the ameer to Russian
occupation, and they declare that no treaty,
which should propose to forbid such action
on the part of Russia, would have any bind
ing effect. When the opportunity comes
OF is made th seize Herat
HERAT WILL BE SEIZED
no matter what the treaty stipulations may
be. This opportunity is not likely to come
Immediately they think, and Russia they
aver will for the present make no advance
beyoud the line OF the frontier which shall
be agreed on in the coming negotiations in
London. They say. further, that Russia
does not contemplate intervening
in the affairs of Herat
prOpriO motu of her own accord, but when
the local tribes, together with the Heratis,
shall ask for the protection of the car,
Russia is bound to incorporate them in her
dominions. Englishmen, familiar with the
story of the annexation Of Merv, think
they understand what Russians mean when
they speak of local tribes ''ask-
ing the protection of the car"
There is shrewd suspicion afloat that the
importunate asking for protection by the
Meroii, which the czar had no heart to
withstand, was not quite proprio motu.
These expressions of opinion and belief
on the part of Russians who have access to
the Russian embassy, are fair reflex of
the tone of Baron DeStaars recent com
muncations to Earl Granville. The prac-
teal upshot of the whole matter is, that
RUSSIA REFUSES
to enter into treaty fixing definite limit
to her territory and binding her to mainte-
nance of the frontier SO fixed, unless the
rule of the ameer shall be so firmly kept
within the line of the frontier that all tribal
disturbances will be promptly repressed, col
lisions between the SarlkS and Afghans
prevented and order at Herat preserved.
The diplomatic position of Earl Granville
has been weakened by the recent advices
received from Lord Dufferin, viceroy of
India, on the present state of affairs in
Afghanistan. These advices make it clear
that the Afghans are not quite as enthusi-
astic in their devotion to the British cause
as the declarations of Abdurrahman at
Rawal-Pindi might have led one to
suppose. The British agents who have
been accompanying the ameer to Cabul'have
reported to Earl Dufferin that fierce discon-
tent prevails among the tribal chiefs owing
to rumors that the ameer had given his
sanction to the marching of British troops
through Condahar. In case war should
occur on the Afghan frontier between Eng
land and Russia the chiefs
PUT NO CREDENCE
in the ameer's positive denials. and are
loud and earnest in their condemnation and
denrmeiation of his supposed action. An
other source of disturbance is furnished by
the ensisaries of Ayoub Kahn, the de-
posed ruler of Herat, who is now an exile