The Valley Virginian. [volume] (Staunton, Va.) 1865-1895, 1885-07-16
Wheat ana Business.

1i1 i11S
Wheat and Business.
Fromtbe- Pihiisde lpbia P1rxs we take
the following iutslligsht SUMMARY Of the
prospective. wheat Yield and its effects
upon business
The wheatsrop of Ass5 may how he con-
sidered as deteTmined thin certain Jim
its. 1t may fall as low as 33SSI 600 700 BUSH
els (Tallmadge's estimate) rise to 361 ,OO0,-
600 agricultural Department estimate)
or at the very best reach to 38I .0O0, 900
T various xGhange estlm he strong
/ probability is that the second estimate will
fbfoVe CO ect, Unless some serious disas-
tier uYHrt1.zes Spring Wheat, which is now
4 going through the closing stage, of its
1 most critical ap@ths VI A IL
ttHe crop IS tKe
smallest>since 1876, and almost precisely
equal to 1877. The population then was
one-fifth to one-fourth smaller than it is
now, and the area only one-eighth as large
as now. To put it another way, when a
crop of this size was last produced, it was
grown for a population of IS to 80 per
cent. as large as now, and to grow it, five
acres were cultivated where eight needed
plow and reaper to harvest this years
meagre crop. 1t has cost so per cent. more
to produce this crop-for acreage increases
cost of prOductiOa-and the consumption,
third to one-fourth. The crOp.of 1877 left
a population of 45,00O.0OO an export of
9O,O0O,0O0 bushels, 274,000,000 being re-
tanned for surplus and consumption. The
population to be fed from the crop of this
year is at least 5S,000,000, and in our
Judgment app caches 60,000,000, for It is
! idle to suppose the prosperous years 1879
S3 have not accelerated the growth of pop
ulation. Nor is there lacking strong cor
roboratiye proof that the increase has
been rapid. In 1877 the farmer raised 1879
4 bushels by eQltiyating an acre in 1885 he
| has onlys9. yeEan acre has cost most far
mers more now than then.
Turning to consumption, if this is pro-
lportionately as large as in 1877-78-a Pc
Rod of depression and strikes much like
that now in progressive entire crop of
4 1885 will be exhaustedin meeting domes-
ticsdemands for food, seed and the arts.
| Nor at the widest extremes can our per
capita consumption for all purposes be
placed at less than $50 or more than 6
| bushels. The personal consumption per
| inhabitant is not less than AS bushels, seed
| requires in the coming year 45,000,000
| bushels at least, and other demands raise
the total copsumptiOn per person to the
amount just indicated, and the total do,
nestle demand OF the least population the
United States now has, must be o,OOO,-
600 bushels, or at the largest $50, 00O,O 900
bushels. The margin for export on the
present crop cannot, therefore, be over
100000 and may be nil. with the
chances, if any, in favor Of the theory that
the present crop will be needed at home,
or so much Of it that the remainder for
export will drop SO low as after the crop OF
1866, when the exports were only per
cent. of the crop.
With the current crop all or nearly all
absorbed by consumption at home, the
only remainder left for export is in the
surplus. This is fortunately large. The
deficiency is now upwards of 100000 900
bushels. In 1888, when the decrease
from 1882 J was 80,000.000 bushels, the
surplus from 1882 at home and abroad
was 50 large that prices fell the year
through, and in 1881, with deficiency OF
1913, UUB;O00 for export but the increase iii
domestic demands since 1881 is 30 900 800,
and since 1888 half this, and the practical
result is that the effective deficiency is
much larger and the exportable supply
from last years deficiencg- is 3proportton-
ately diminished, The surplus from last |
year is, however, fortunately LARGER than |
ever before in our history. The inquiry
made by adstneets' discovered 58,00u0O0-
bushels Of visible Supply, which it enlarges |
By TariQd s 0thesesl TO 5000, 000. bush,
els. Dedncting from the amount sure toll
be carried over from rs, soc, 900 to- IS, $780,
00-buSKels, and it Will be seen that TO- 7
600, 900 remamS asst the outside of probable |
o. int hoe oh