New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1885-04-13
UHFAT And VAR
THE APRIL BUREAU REPoRr-RUssIAN EXPORTS
UNIMPoRTANT-THE GREAT SURPLUS IN THE

/ Thursday because OF war news, men say. A"ouO d
year ago April wheat no. red winter sold at 10
cents at the close the 9TH, at 9G on the Ith ana
sth. and at 9sa. on the 9th of April At that time
there was reasonable prospect that 4O.OO0ooO OF
30. OOo, 600 bushels would be left over from the
crop of 1888 The market chose to jump wheat up
nevertheless and about 1000. 900 bushels were
left over mt the end of the crop year. But TINS
year there is every reason to suppose that
12O. O0O. 600 bushels will remain unconsumed ana
unsOld at the end of the present crop year. ana YET
the market chooses TO put wheat higher thah IL sou
about q year AGO. with less than half as large
surplus TO be carried. Two reasons are given. both
good so far rs they go injury to winter wheat
and possible war abroad. But there are other
considerations besides the largo surplus on hahd'
which cannot be safely overlooked.
Let us first what quantity there IL to deal
/ with At the end of the last crop year about
! 3.s79Gls bushels were left on hand. In lSSl the
Weld was 3D. 10000 bushels. Reckoning the
average population for the consuming year AT
81 7O5 $50. the consumption for food ut the usuai
/ rate would be % ,SSG.13O bushels There has
| been n decrease OF 10 per cent in acreage sown 10
wheat but there may nevertheless be allowed lor
seed the full quantity required for last years
! acreage and the consumption viii then reach
3OS iOl i3O bushels for the current crop year. Inc
onontity exported during the eight months July
!
| exports from Atlantic ports Tor March were about
! 600 OOO bushels. and from Pacific ports, Judging
/ from returns for three weeks about 2,OOOoVO
! bushels. So tnat about 11O.jOOO0O bushels had
! probably gone out April l. This, with the con
sumption. would leave from the crop of 1881 about
93 -G3 800 bushels. hes dos all the surplus brought
over from 1883. During the three months, April
/ June inclusive. tie exports last year were
! - SG5.2I3 bushels. At the same rate TINS year
there woull be left unconsuncd and unsold July
I. alou' III. PurO bushels Of wheat. Whether
the exports for the three months Will be as large OF
/ larger Remains 90 be seen.
a. this time last var speculation began the
absurd upward movement which liltei the price u
] ! III, aboat MAY J. aud - materially diminished
| c<por;s Then the prro began to tumble, and with
| scarcely a recovery declined until 1t reached
! - cents in December. Yet France and Germany
| were buying grain freely last year. Now France
/ has imposed a duty of > francs, and Germany
| duty of 30 marks per 100 kilos. which, at The
official valuation of the fr.nc AMI m"rS. would b"
! l5.7 cent, bHshe IN France. and l'.l cents
! lushcl il Germany; at The same time Austria ana
/ Spain are now g IA the same direction. In l'7i
/ tbs country seat lO9ll. i97 bus. els wheat to
France. and 100, }G9 10 Germany AM the loss Of
I these exports VIII in part balance any gam 10 IL
| from the curtailmcnt of Russian exports Larg"
] .
IN authorization OF tie new duties. and { Is therefore
70 It'd that the demand from tao,c countries
Will br small Il least until after the nest crop has
| be,u 40 far marketed that the quantity is well
| known Whether Great Britain. The principal
/ remaining consumer of American grain. Will be
/ induced to buy more largely by m advance IN price
| is to sly the least, somewhat doubtful Since the
! la-t week IN February. wheat has sold below S9
cents oycry week. and the demand from Great
| Britain has not been very great alth1hgh th"
p.,,bilitics of war with Russia have been clearly
visible Ii h r, its to be- great haste tobuy hereafter
Al prices 10 cents per bushel higher shall have
AN excellent opportunity to laugh at onr British
| cousins tor their dulncss.
! War will mean a suppression OF Russian exports
! by sea- but not by rail. The rail exports have been
considerable aud will doubtless increase II ship
mcnts by water are interrupted Thoagh neIther
| the war nor the European duties will wholly cut
! on tine Russian exports or imports by France and
! Germany. there seems to be good reason Tor the
belief that the net difference in supply and demand
/ will not be great. Ii Eussia Sends ont, say
| 90. 600 900 bushels less. Germany and France VIII
bnv nearly as much less account of their higher
dutes. Meanwhile. either dinercnccis insignificant
~ comparison with the surplus of l2l.o00.00)
husLels which this country seems likely to have on
hand July /.
The bureau of Agriculture has Just issued It's
! estimate of tie acreage and condition of winter
wheat The estimate of injury Is conicaSedly not
| worth much at this time in the season; the Bureau
REPORTS that the real status OF tho crop will he better
| shown a month hence. The report of present
condition, however shows an average OF -, against
| oG last year. when tho yield WAS 3l2,7C3.JOO
bu.hc;a This would Indicate a loss OF nearly 20
Der cent on account OF injury, and the acreage
! report which ought to be- more reliable figures up
~ IA Gaia n, pnt
! rcnortcd. and some gain not stated in Oregon. the
! coucrol decrease being rockoned at 10 per cent
| Ihis wonld mean decrease of 3J.G23.}2O bushels
| ON account OF acreage, ana an estimated loss OF
III 10 j7G bushels or account ot CONDITION: result
ing i'm "A yield of only 5b3OO, 20 DushciS Oh winter
wheat # thc spring wheat yield shouu Do tle Stne
M last YEAR the crop woulu anth DO ,h t
| hushcls While these estimates are tho most
reliable that can be obtained, II Is worth WhiIc
! In see that they necessarily omit one important
| factor The farmer who has wheat wlnt'r-killcd'
| in most cases puts in seed again IN the spring
| W,ther the Bureau nor anybody else can guess how
! far the injury sustained will thus be repaired 49,
| INT with a yield of only 4l3,OOOOoO bushels TINS
voar and l2l 900 900 bushels left over. We should
| have for the next crop year n total supply OF
90 100000 bushels AGAINST home cohsnnptlGn
! not exceeding 3l5,O0O.OOO What sh0uId we 40
| With n surplus of 21DOOO,00 bushels for export
! rms year, with Germany and france buying, we
shall probably have exported about l33O0o,ooV
| I'm sheis If We lose the German and French
demand say 100000 bushels. ana have
supply instead al h t9St E"ss ant gHpU @nIp 10
| with February about l0,3OO,OO0 bushols-and IN
adItion enough to make up Tor decrease of 10 per
cent in the wheat acreage of Great Britain
saw = 900 900 bushels, we shall still have time
| Of rs 700 900 bushels TO spare for contingencies
| Hence there seems to be not much danger OF
| f,mine i'm ,hs country. and the famine prices for
| grain. of which some people talk, would appear u
| little premature. Truly. W. NJ o.
Nep- York, April II, 1883.
| THE CAPITAL or 4 GAS COMPANY.
| Tothe EditOr OF The Trt6une
SIR: In the issue of your paper of March 81