New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1885-08-29
BUsfvEss NORTHUMBERLAND TESTED.


AS usual the truth seems to lie in the middle.
There has been for some months past chorus
of congra,ulation about the reported improve
ment in business. 1t was announced that all
troubles were over, that the lowest point had
been passed, and that the country was on the
ND grade again. At the same time, others VINO
rejected these favorable prophecies affirmed
that business was really as bad as ever, that no
real improvement had taken place, and that
there was great reason to expect serious caami-
ties before the end of the year. The truth does
not seem to be with either class of prophets.
There has been some Improvement, but not
enough as yet to warrant great confidence or
unlimited expansion in business
The best test of the volume of business Is the
aggregate of bank exchanges at the twenty
eight clearing houses outside of New-Y
A comparatively small part of the payments
embraced in such a volume of exchanges is due
to speculation in securities, and they represent
the transactions of nearly all the important
monetary centres. During the past four weeks
the volume of exchanges outside of New-York
has amounted to $876,492,910, against
$S6S, 731, 21 6 last year, gain of less than one
per cent. Yet business last ear was not a little
depressed by the political excitement, and by
the grave uncertainty which even then began
to be felt. The level of prices is little lower
than it was in August, 1884, so that the
quantity of products of all kinds exchanged
has been larger than il was last year by more
than one per cent. But, on the other hand, the
decline in prices means a narrower margin OF
profits on the transactions actually ELECTED.
Hence, while the business of August would
probably aggregate more in amount than that
of August, 1854, exclusive of speculative
operations nevertheless il is question whether
the business this year has yielded as large
profits on the whole as that of last year, while
the number of people to be fed and clothed Is
greater as well as the number of people to be
supported by the profits of trade.
There apparently is some Improvement, but
it is not sufficiently large TO indicate general
change in the tone or tendency of business
The low prices that prevail still give evidence
that the demand for products Is relatively
small, although production has in many
branches been curtailed. and the only signs of
recovery in trade are directly traceayle to stop
page of production for the declared purpose OF
affecting prices. All viii hope that improve
mcnt on a broader basis and of a more proms-
ing sort may speedily come. But nothing can
be gained by shutting the eyes to the fact that
the continued uncertainty rs 20 the future still
checks enterprise, and the fear Of pernicious
legis lation next winter still prevents the ex-
pansion of industry The people were warned
that twelve months of this continued uncer-
tainty, after a change in the policy of the Gov
eminent, would inevitably Dc months of great
ffnt. in fte MI iDfu A
fuse To believe. II they, and they only, could
bear the consequences, there would be little
reason to complain But all are linked together,
and the decision at the ballot boxes last year
affects us all alike.