St. Paul daily globe. [volume] (Saint Paul, Minn.) 1884-1896, 1885-11-02
Guessing on HIPS Majority.

Special to the Globe.
NEW York, Oct. 31.-Granting that
Gov. Hill and the other state candidates are
supported in entire good faith by all OF the
elements of his party and the probable di-
mansions of their vote become an interesting
topic for speculation. A prominent Demo-
Graf of New York, who has been cOnspic-
uously identified with local and state poll
tics for quarter of a century, and who has
a reputation for good prediction guessing,
has furnished the GLOBE correspondent
with these figures: Total registration,
216,O OO deduct 10 per cent. for
absentees, 21.600, leaves a probable
aggregate of 1914. 400. The largest ReDub-
lican vote ever polled in New York city at
a gubernatorial election was 10000; an in
crease of 10000 is allowed Davenport,
which is claimed to be much larger than is
indicated by the registration. The figures
then stand: Total vote. 1914. 600; Hill, 1872
200; Davenport. 10000; Prohibition and
Greenback, 2,OO0; Hill over Davenport, So
200. The same authority estimates Hills
excess over Davenport in Brooklyn at 5000,
making the aggregate majority for the
former in the two cities 62, 200, which elects
him by about twenty thousand. This is
rather a rose-colored view Of the situation,
but it is shown by the register. John
Kelly, the Tammany sachem, stakes his
REPUTATION AS A POLITICAL PROPHET
upon the approximate correctness OF the
figures below, Total vote, 1872. 600; Hill,
1874, 900; Davenport, 6S, 900: excess for Hill,
5000 Mr.. Reilly, as will be observed,
leaves the Greenback and Prohibition tick
is entirely out of his calculation. The
Butler and ST. John vote in the city atld
,I,,o A an1 thn a
of 1000 made by the first authority quotes
will certainly prove liberal one. At the
Republican headquarters Hill is not
conceded more than $4,000 majority
in New York city and $4,000
in Brooklyn, and the Democrat claims
are secuted as preposterous. 1t is pointed
out that Hancock carried the city by only
al 600 and Cleveland by only 43, 900, when
the full votes were poled, and that, leaving
the tidal wave of 1882 out of consideration,
no such majority as is now predicted for
Hill has been received by any candidate for
president or governor in many years. In
BROOKLYN. which was the Mugwump storm
center last year, the existing complications
are numerous and bewildering. Cleveland
carried Kings county by an excess OF Is, 74S
over Blaine: and in 1880 HancOck's plurality
was 9,311.
INDEPENDENT VOTING is MUCH IN VOGUE
in Brooklyn, and there is no community in
the country in which dividing lines between
parties are so indistinct. Mr.. Cleveland's
majority was largely due to the efforts OF
Henry Ward Beecher, whose influence is
still potent factor in the politics of Brook
lyn. This year Mr.. Beecher is supporting
the Davenport ticket with considera-
BILE vigor, and so also are most OF the
prominent gentlemen who acted with him
last year. At an early stage in the cam
paign there was quite thriving colony of
democratic mugwumps across the bridge,
but Forakers bloody shirt speeches and as
saults upon the administration have almost
decimated it's ranks. However. it is con-
ceded that Gov. Hill will not poll the aver
age Democratic vote in Brooklyn.