New-York tribune., 1885-03-13
POSSIBLE GERk1N MEDIATTON

The london stock market, which had been
declining all day yesterday under the warll~e
indications on the Afghan frontier, recovered
slightly upon a report that Germany had offered
her services as mediator in the dispute. 1t may
well be that Prince Bismarck is not prepared
for the reopenng of the Eastern question,
which is among the contingencies OF war be-
tween England and Russia, and the remai kable
fact that since the. Afghan dispute began to
come TO a head English cOnsOls have declined
more than Russian securities (the bulk OF which
latter are believed to be held in Germany may
be thought to indicate an intention on the part
of Germany to prevent war if possible. The
frmness of Russian stOcks-whlch Lave even
nov not fallen as low as cOnsols-can only mean
that their holders do not apprehend war. Since
Russia is financially very weak Power, ana
since war with England would close her
present avenues of export and compel her 10
send all her products by circultous land routes
through Germany and Austria, while the effect
mon her agriculture would be disastrous, and
liable to breed labor revolt, it is certain that
belief in approaching war would send her stocks
down heavily The presumption therefore is
that Bismarck has throughout intended to offer
mediation, and that he believes it will be
cffectual.
The obvious impOssibility of cOnfining such
struggle to Central Asia, and the difficulty OF
foreseeng the consequences OF military move
mepts in Europe, must render all the Powers
anxious to avoid the commencement OF contest
which may involve any or all OF them. IL was
suspected when the Skiernivice meeting was
held. that Russia had been offered carte blanche
In Central Asia But inasmnch as the Emperors
could not give each other guarantees as to what
England would do in Europe if her Indian En-
pire was threatened such an arrangement was
probably not attempted. Yet it appears certain
that no pacific proposition which does not in
cludc the withdrawal of Russia from the Afghan
frontier will be accepted by England, and it
does not seem likely that Russia would have
taken the steps she has already without assur-
ances from Berlin that she would not be inter-
fcred with Making allowance for the panicky
feeling that evidently prevails In London, 1t
must still be admitted that the strain In the
Russo English relations is real and serious
enough to render declaration OF war anything
but surprising. But for the recent renewal OF
the friendly relations between Germany and
England some of the signs OF the times might be
construed as indicating a German disposition to
support Russian pretensOns at the expense OF
Great Britain. That view, however, is untena-
BILE since Herbert Bsmarck's mission, and it
must be concluded that the Princes offer Of
mediation (if factl is sincere.
Russia's stubbornness and diplomatic evasions
have justified the belief that she had already
determined upon war; This may yet prove to
be the case, for the military party OF St. Peters,
burg may prove too strong even for German IN
fuence to overcome. But il Prince Bismarck
seriously undertakes the part of mediator, and
tails, on account of Russian obstiDacy, England
will enter the war with the moral support oil
Germany. and Russia will be made to feel that