, 1885-05-10
The Russian Situation.

mitted to an arbitrator. This may con-
sumo considerable time.
The Anglo-Russian Situation.
LONDON, May 9.-The Anglo Russian
situation continues to be enveloped in a
cloud of uncertainty. 1t is absolutely i'm
possible to predict what a day may bring
forth. No sooner had the people begun
to become reconciled to the idea Of the
submission of the difficulty to arbitration,
than reports began to prevail questioning
the probability ct there being any arbitra-
ton after all the talk as to the great things
it was about to accomplish. Tonight no
one Processes to understand what the pre-
else condition of the negotiations with
Russia may be. The average Englishman
finds it difficult, if not absolutely impossi-
bic, 10 disabuse himself of the feeling that
whatever Gladstone and Granville may
say to the contrary, the Russian diplo-
matists are getting the better of the
British. Every delay in the negotiations
has redounded to Russia's advantage.
While the ministers have been talking,
the Russian railway has been actively
pushed toward the Afghan frontier and
Russian troops have seized debatable ter
ritory.
These are facts, and the average Briton
grows impatient when an attempt is made
to belittle their importance or obscure
them with a cloud of words. The posi-
ton of affairs to night is so involved in
uncertainty and doubt as to create a gem
eral feeling of insecurity. The feeling
hat the proposed arbitration is likely to
fall through gains weight from an an
nouncement made to-day that there is
likely to be considerable delay in prepar-
ing the preliminary details. There is no
denying that this announcement is re-
ceiyed by many people with a smile. The
delay, it is said, will be necessary in order
to allow the cabinets of the two countries
to come to a decision upon the precise
points to be submitted to an arbitrator.
Some people profess to think this process
Of arriving at a preliminary understanding
will be so fruitful a source of delay that
the chances of the arbitration taking
place at all are decidedly slight. The
cabinet, it is thought, may find them
selves as much at sea in deciding what
shall be submitted to an arbitrator as
they were in trying to come to an under
standing in regard to the original difficult
ty. 1t is h%umorously suggested that
they may be obliged to resort to a pre-
liminary arbitration in order to determine
what shall be submitted to the arbitrator.
The possibilities o. this sort of diplomacy
opens up a rich field to the imaginative
statesman.
This view of the situation gains addi-
tional likelihood when one considers the
latest exchange of views that has taken
place between Lord Granville, secretary
of state for foreign affairs, and De Staal,
the Russian minister. Between these
diplomats the differences of opinion
about such primary questions as the scope
of the proposed arbitration and the zone
of delimitation, still remain unsettled.
Whether these divergent views can be
%reconciled and Il common standpoint
reached from which to consider the main
question, is by no means certain. De
Staal has proposed that the whole scheme
of arbitration shall be abandoned in case a
comparison of the evidence regarding the
Penideh incident shall be found to sus-
tain Russia's Interpretation of the agree
ment of March II. Granville is inclined
to accede to this proposition, but only on
condition that Russia will grant a definite
treaty, in which she will pledge herself
not to make any further advance into
Afghanistan. There is little likelihood
that Russia will make any such treaty as
GRANVILLE suggests.
There is an increasing reason to believe
the possession of Penjdeh has whetted
the appetite Of the voracious Russian,
and nothing but Herat will long appease
its cravings. Russians here in London
who are on terms of intimacy with the
officials of the Russian embassy, do not
hesitate to declare openly that Russia in
tends to take Herat. They assert it will
be an easy matter to obtain the assent OF
the ameer to a Russian occupation, and
they declare that no treaty which should
nronosa IN fnrasfall such action nm the
part of Russia would have any binding
effect. When the opportunity comes, OIL
is made, to seize Hent, Herat will be
seized, no matter what the treaty stipula.
tons may be. This opportunity is moi
likely to come Immediately, they think,
and Russia, they aver, will for the present
make no advance beyond the line of tn,
frontier which shall be agreed upon il