Savannah morning news., 1885-12-12
THE COTTON CROP.
The Authorities Closer Together in
Their Estimates than Usual.


Their Estimates than Usual.
The various so-called authorities are
closer together in their estimates of the
cotton crop this year than they usually
are. The Bureau" the Cotton Exchange,
BradStreerS, and the minor lights, with
commendable unanimity agree that the
total will not vary much from 6,650,0OO
bales. About Aug. / everybody was pre-
pared to believe that the yield would dis
tance the record; the papers told the
planter that he must be ready to bmlt
to the disastrous prices which would re-
suit from a crop OF 100000 bales. There
Is every probability that we would have
made so much, and very likely more, had
the favorable seasons continued, but
everybody admits that the bright outlook
was much impaired by the long bad
weather which set in about that time.
Now, in considering the import of the
subsequent estimates OF drainage, we
must remember what had been the former
hopes. This will tend to convince rea-
sonable mind that the extent OF the injury
would be considerably exaggerated in
comparing with previous years.
Moreover, had the seasons continued 80
propitious, the planters could never have
picked their fields clean. With smaller
yield we may be sure that they will scrape
up eVerything-mOre especially as 1t takes
so much cotton to bring in so little money.
The fall season has been everything that
could be desired, both for permitting the
growth of all the top crop possible and
and for picking.
With such an uncertain year, the close
proximity of the various estimates is real
ly surprising. | would consider that Oc-
tober estimates under. the circumstances
would be reasonably near to come in five
per cent. of the total; and believing for the
reasons above stated that the general
tendency has been to overestimate the
damage, and consequently to underesti-
mate the crop, think their figures are
little too low, not much, only say five per
cent. making the crop just a triae short
of 1000, GOO bales.
The low prices predicted for 100000
bale crop have nearly been realized; but
for the bad August, we would probably
have already seen SIC. in New York.
unfortunately, poor trade has resulted IN
lethargic demand, and there was moth
ing to keep prices up. Now that August
delivery is in the vicinity of 10c., is there
still lower depth?
1t must be confessed that there is no
immediate promise of recuperation.
Trade in America and Europe continues
dull, and speculation is crippled and we'll
nigh lifeless. There are also several
things which may precipitate further
sharp decline, and one may possibly come
with another, The "bulls" have long been
following a tedious market, into which it
has been impossible to intuse permanent
activity and strength. If these losing
speculators become discouraged, or
''tired," as the saying is, they may find
pr ces to crumbe very rapidly as they
sell out either from disgust or of neces-
sity. Secondly, the stock bubble may
burst any day, bringing dear money and
unsettling all the markets. Some may
also think well to include the remote
possibility of big European war.
We would conclude from these facts
and promises that we are apt to have
a dragging market for some time yet, al
ways with serious danger of some one or
more of the several contingencies men
toned above bringing on a "squally
time" But we may be reasonably satisfied
that present prices are below the natural
average, and that even if they do go lower
IN the meantime, that they will be higher
before the summer closes. just about
the time when speculation in a COM
modify looks most dead, so to speak, 1t is
on the point Of starting into new life, and
the day OF the patient and long suffering
bulls will certainly come one time or
other, whether the crop be $500, 900 or
100000 bales. Hence, while the writer
rather expects Liverpool and New York
futures to tall somewhat further, and
would not be surprised to see August in
New York at 9% or thereabouts, one
must admit that current figures are low.
A permanent rise can hardly be expected
before the pressure to market the crop
is over, but we will all the same, prOba-
bly, see August contracts in the neighbor-
hood of lie. before Aug. /, 1886.
DEMOCRITUs.