New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1885-05-31
BRITISH COMPLICATIONS.
THE VIEWS OF ARCHIBALD FORBES.
CABINET ,DISsENsIONs-LoRD RosEBERY AND
PRINCE BISMARCK - ENGLAND's FIGHTING
STRENGTH.
Copyright, 1885.
lBY CABLR TO THE rRIRUEE.I

tons illness at Dublin disappoints expectation that
he would allude in his Belfast speech to Cabinet
dissensons. 1t Is regarded as a significant mante-
nance of the breach that Sir Charles Dixie declined
visiting Belfast as a substitute for Lord Harting-
ton. Mr. Chamberlain is living quietly at Paris en-
Jdmiue and makes no sign. It's generally believed,
however that the radical section of the
Cabinet are fixed In their firm opposition to O
newal Of coercive legislation in Ireland for more
than year, while the Lord Lieutenant is less
strongly opposed to such q compromise.
Lord Rosebery has returned from the Continent
and entirely denies the statements loosely current
in the newspapers that he went to Berlin q
private mission to Prince Bismarck. He asserts
that he has sent home no dispatches, as was so ex-
plicitly stated and laughs at the detailed account
of the interview between himself and Prince Bis
marck, as also at the warnings and
promises alleged to have been made
by the Prince and sent to The Times through
tho omniscient Biowitz, the Paris correspondent
There is little doubt, however, that there was
an interview between Lord Rosebery and the
Chancellor; that they discussed International
politics unrescryedly. and that their intercourse
may lead to an important modification Of the Min
isteria policy in divers directions. For example,
il may instigato tho severance of Egypt from the
Soudan. the handing over of the latter to Turkey
and the naturalization Of the former country under
strong and popular ruler like Ismail. These are
measures long recognized by most sensible people
as tho only rational or, indeed, possible .alterna-
tyes 10 Prince B5marcks original suggestion that
England should make Egypt her own. 1t is
equally likely that Prince Bismarck told Lord
ROsebery that he recognized tho futllity and folly
Of Engand's alliance with Afghanistan
and had given advice, on lines long advocated by
cool-headed military experts at home, that Eng
land ehould at relnquish the notion of de-
fonding or fighting for an outlying frontier on
Afghan exterior confines and adopt the true policy
of defending India on the frontier of India by the
construction OF defensive works opposite the.
mouths and passes debouching on that frontier.
There Is a curious confirmation of the hints
dropped by Lord Rosebcry of his talk with Prince
Bismarck in the reluctance understood to
exist on the part of Russia to enter
into definite formal treaty respecting
the fiontcr IL is understood that Russia would
prefer a settlement embodied in an interchange
of diplomatic notes and this for obvious reasons.
modus rrend would be far easier by virtue of an
informal arrangement than through treaty signed
and delivered. Experts of the Ango-lndan Intel
ligonce Department make SECRET of their convic
tion that settlement attained now will last only
three years when Russia will have perfected ar
arrangements and disposition for seizing and holding
thcy believe, has been the goal of Muscovite aspi-
ratir Ne for perhaps generation. In three years
tlu,o the TRANSIT aspian Railway can be finished
certainly e. Merv IL not to tho frontier. 1t is
already in working order from tho Caspian at MI
chaelovsk to Kizil Araat, 145 miles, al but finished
TO Bami. thirty-iiye miles and there is perma-
ncnt way ready 10 Askabad. Wells, the English
contractor has been superseded by the Russian
general, Annenkoff, who employs the troops with
T.a... ~.
tension of the line will enable Russia to hurry TO
the front troops and supplies I'D IiJitum.
In spite Of the fact that it is understood that the
question Of the Afghan boundary has been settled,
and that Maruchak and Zulfkar will remain in
possession OF the Ameer, it is believed that the
British authorities. who have eye TO the general
election, are somewhat premature In adopting eco
nomic expedents. The Guards 1t true,
remain encamped at Ramleh, but all
extraordinary preparations in the arse
nails have been arrested and tho peace
routine has been restored in India The troops con;
shutting the Second Army Corps no longer held
in readiness for active service Should war occur,
a contingency not yet impossible in spite of the
peace outlook, unQuestionably the military sItua-
ton, in the sense of effective early military move
ments, would be singulary unfavorabe for Eng
land affording no scope for alternative plans of
campaign Admission TO the Black Sea would
enable her to cut Russian communication by water
from Odessa TO Poti, on route for the Caspian
Had she troops enough she might even take Trans
Caucasia In reverse from n base on the Euxine at
Poti or Batoum. and interfere with Russias alter
native line of communication by rail from Novo-
Tcherkask by StavrOpol to Vladikavkas, by land
ing expeditions at Port Constantine, Fort Lazarey
or Sukhum Kae. Even without landing troops
feet In the Black Sea might inhict great
injury on Russia, but the European
Powers arc united in the resolve to looalize any
conflict in Central Asia should it occur Turkey
rests under positive njunctions to prevent ingress
or cgress as regards the Euxine. This compulsory
neutrality prevents the contamination of the pro-
iect held by Lord Beaconsiield In 1878 OF landing
an expedition at Iskanderun, and by march
through Asia Minor striking Russias Caucasian
communications. The German Military Commis-
sion, now in Persia, is believed to be charged with
tho duty of urging Persian neutrality, when att-
tude would make equally impossible expeditions
from the TIgrs over Tablz toward the Caspian and
also northward on Meshed, both OF which schemes
have been theoretically discussed
All, or indeed any, of these projects would
only be feasible IL England had appro xi-
mate numerical military equality WIN
her gigantic enemy but the discrepancy ls
glaring. recent estimate gave England, exclu
sivo of India, an available field army Oh 'o'ooo
strong including all troops now in Egypt and the
Soudan; and this only assuming the employment
of militia in Ireland and for garrison duty at home
and in the Mediterranean. Rusias field army Is
one million of combatants not counting reserves.
Under these conditions England's plan OF campaign
If war should yet occur would be restricted 10 an
advance from India of European troops. There are
Ia India about 40, 900 troops, Of whom large pro-
portion are very young for immediate service.
This would leave about 2s'Ooo tor garri-
son in India. The native troops in the first line