National Republican., 1885-08-13
COMMERCIAL IMPossIBILITY." "

The latest report on the condition and
prospects Of the Panama canal is by Mr..
Wolfred Nelson, Of California, who has
returned from the isthmus after care
ful and apparently intelligent inspection
of NJ. de Lesseps's great enterprise. 1t
is the opinion of Mr.. Nelson--as we
find it summarized in the Philadelphia
PrcSS-that the canal was hastily begun
by the French without due knowledge
and, unless an immense loan is noated
within six months, in another year thou.
sands of shareholders will have lost their
all in "what looks uncommonly like a
South Sea bubble"
Mr.. Nelson states the reasons for his
conclusion very minutely, and forlifes
his position with quotations from en-.
gineers, both French and American. 1t
will be remembered that the original
estimates upon which the present work
was commenced we're made by techni.
cal commission composed Of eminent
engineers and renowned geologists, who,
with NJ. de Lesseps, visited the isthmus
early in 1880, during the most pleasant
season of The year. The weather was
enchanting, the conversation delightful,
and the entertainment of royal order,
and, after partaking freely OF the joyous
surroundings, the commission "agreed
to estimate the cost of its work at the
prices fixed by the Paris congress'-
which was S43,0OO,OO0 francs, or
sl6s, 100000. NJ. de Lesseps, in spite
of the lesson of his preposterous under.
estimate at Suez, regarded these figures
as too high, and it is charged that, with
out protesting to have any knowledge OF
the engineering, he reduced the estimates
on his voyage to New York from 5lGS,.
100000 to S12O,000,000. He then, in
face of many exposures by the American
press, deliberately floated SG0,000,000
as his first loan, and solemnly asserted
that the canal could be completed for
sl20, 100000
Mr.. Nelson asserts that in this esti.
mate M. de Lesseps made no provision
for tidal basin, which will cost at least
100000. The excavation at Guile.
bra has been underestimated aud later
surveys bring out the fact that at least
10000, 900 cubic meters more than the
original estimate will have to be taken
out, the work costing anywhere from
siO,OO0,OOO to S5O,OOO,OOO additional.
The remarkable commission of 1880
which could not even make good guesses-
estimated $2O,0OO,OOO as the cost of
damming the Chagres at Gamboa. This,
according TO Mr.. Nelson, was the mercst
conjecture, as no proposition at the time
he left Panama, in April last, had been
made public that solved this knotty
point. Every additional survey
seems to develop additional
difficulties. In fact, there 10
no foundation on which to place the
colossal dam needed for this purpose,
and prominent canal engineer is quoted
as saying: "The dam of the Chagres
river seems u hopeless task. /, as a
Freuchman, should not say so, but it is
true, nevertheless.
But these, serious as they are, do not
end the list of troubles. The deadly
climate of the sthmus has been terribly
fatal. The mortality among the canal
men has been appalling, but is not r. al.
lied by the world at large. To provide
for this enormous amount of sickness, a
vast system Of hospitals has been erected
at Panama, costing s2,250,000. Along
the line of the canal are scattered the
graves of the canalmen, and last summer
the death rate reached l10 per 1000.
There are no figures showing what
the exact expenditure has been, but it is
said to vary from between 800, 900, 900
to sl25,OOO,000 and yet not more than
the twentieth OF the whole work has
been completed. In conclusion, Mr..
Nelson asserts that the canal is com,
mercial impossibili,y. "To complete
it," he says, "would cost probably from
S400, 100000 to 5j00,000,0OO, such o
fIbulous sum that no existing tonnage
would pay interest on it,"