New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1885-09-23
THE IMPROVEMENT IN BUSINESS.

THE IMPROVEMENT IN BUSINESS.
Many arc asking whether the existing condl'
tons really warrant the hopes of improvement
in business. 1t may be well to review the more
important commercial and industrial facts.
Since the middle of June there has been q con-
siderable improvement in many branches OF
trade. though not in all. Prices of stocks have
advanced, and prices of many manufactured
nroducts. and the number of establishments in
operation has increased, and the volume OF
trade has somewhat enlarged. Yet fear pre-
walls that the circumstances do not entirely
Justify the advance in prices already rcailzeo'
and that the expansion in trade anu manuiact-
ures may not prove lasting.
About half the workers in this country are
employed directly or indirectly in agriculture.
Most of the crops this year are unusually large
But the important exception affects all branches
of business The wheat crop is less than that
of the previous year by more than l5O,ooO,ooo
bushels, and yet an advance in prices, when
might compensate the farmer for his losses, Is
prevented by the great accumulation OF wheat
from previous years. A large part of the enor'
NOUS surplus of wheat is known to he In the
hands of dealers. and still larger part is un-
loubtcdly held ~ the form of -four so that the
ouant.ty remaining upon which the farmer
could realize in case of an advance is relatively
small. Ii must therefore be reckoned as on
uuravorablc symptom. and an important one.
that the farmers have small crops of wheat to
sell this year, while the prices are likely to be
comparatively low. The corn crop, on the
other hand, promises to be the largest ever
grown But there are already indications that
the yield will probably much exceed the de-
mand for consumption, so that prices VIII rule
unusually low. If the market for provisions
were well sustained by large and active
foreign demand, rs it was some years ago, the
consumption of an enormous corn crop by nm
increased production Of hogs anu cattle w0nid
be easy. But the state OF the market for pork
products. and the curtailment of exports OF
such products during the past two years do not
encourage the belief that greatly Increased
Weld of coin can IN this way be prolitably con-
sumed.
The most important crop to Southern in
dnstres. that OF cotton, promises to be the
largest ever raised. But in this case also it is
difficult to see how n largely increased supply
can be disposed of with profit. The statistics
of the trade for the last cotton year show that
the decrease in the consumption by Europe has
been no less than 374, 900 bales OF 400 pounds
each, within the past two years, AMI
in the same time the decrease IN
the consumption in this country has
been 10000 bales of 400 pounds each,
II was hoped not long ago that the
market was ready TO take largely increased
ouan,ity of products. The price Of print cloths
was rapidly advanced from 2.97 cents to 3.25
cents. but It has since declined again, closing
last week mt $40 cents. With fully onc-thrd
of the producing capacity OF this country now
unemployed, it is not strange that competent
observers have some doubt whether a largely
increased crop of cotton can be sold at re-
muneratiyc prices.
The manufacture of new railways, rolling
stock and other equipments had very much 10
90 with the improvement in industry in 1879.
But the railways are neither able at this time
to extend their liucs very largely, nor are
they in position to add literally to their equip
ment The records show that only 1927 miles
Of railway have been built thus far during the
year 1855, against 1854 miles to the same date
in 1854, 1854 miles in 1888. and G,?lo III
1882. We have to so back to the year 1878 TO
Grd a record OF smaller railway construction
within the first eight months o' the year than
that Of 1855. As respects improvements and
cauipmcnts, the railroad companies are almost
universally exercising great economy. nor is
this without reason, for rates arc lower than
ever before, and there are gloomy prospects OF
prolonged and disastrous controversy, both IN
the Northwest aud in the Southwest, where the
Transporting interest has for some years been
comparatvcly profitable. 1t seems certain that
the profits of the railway system per mile
oneratcd must be less in 1885 than in any
nreyious wear since 1878. Meanwhile those
branches of manufacture which are not largely
dependcnt upon railway operations are unusu
ally embarrassed by The demands of trades
unions. and by uncertainties respecting the cur
rency and the tariff The danger OF silver pay
ments is an important cause of anxiety, but not
greater than the danger of prolonged agitation
on the tariff question.
Thus there is reason for great caution, until
visible dangers have been cleared away.
There has been and il improvement. But rs is
usual with the people of this country, ut the
first hint they rush far beyond what is reason
able in anticipating better days, and III expand
ing production and trade. Thus the advance in
the prices of stocks was from 80 to 40 per cent
within few weeks, although the actual i'm
provement in the volume of business in COM
harrison with last year was only per cent in
August and not more than per cent during
the first half of September. Clearly there is
need of greater caution, and of n more mO1er-
ate and prudent hopciulness, both in specu.
latve and in manufacturing circles.
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TIE CLEVELAND STRIKERS.