New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1885-12-27
THE LIBERAL DEFEAT,
IS 1T A DEFEAT AND WHAT is TO COME OF
IF7

| Liberals are now Engaged i'll framing, the most in
geniOus is perhaps that of sir William Harcourt.
The late Home Secretary tells that the sO-ca He'd
Liberal defeat is not defeat at all, bit victory.
| This iscxtromely satisfactory, but would be still
| more SO if it had not required column and half
| Of The Times t. set forth simple "a proposition.
The pnblic apt to look with suspicion victories
which require 81 much ucidaiOn. Sir William,
however, is a debater of tho first rank, an expert
at election figures, a lawyer, and as good political
gladiator can BE- found in the Liberal ranks He
may be taken to have put the Liberal case
strongly it can be put, and this the substance of
what he saws.
There Is no Tory reaction, says Sir William llar-
court. Strike ont ireland and reckon Great Britain
only. and the Liberals are i'll u great majority.
Strike out the Irish vote from the English chs
and their majority would be greater still. They
are, in fact within ten of their strength in the last
Parliament, although they have lost thirtv-twO seats
in Ireland. They must, therefore have gained
twenty-five in England, Scotland and Wales. They
had but elghty-seven majority over the Tories ia
he last Parliament; they now have 1903. Aud
then Sir William expatiates at length and
in a very entertaining manner on the
causes and circums ances of this great
Liberal triumph. His conclusion is that
the election is splendid testimony Of the
sentiments of the people of England, Scotland and
Wales to the leadership and policy of MIR. Glad
stone. But he goes further The bounds of history
not wide enough for him; nothing less than
prophecy can satisfy his soul. One other thing be-
side the satisfaction of England with Mr.. Glad
stores leadership this election has proved. II has
proved that the Tory party can never under auv
conceivable circumstances have n majority IN the
House of Commons. Sir Williams view seems TO
be that the counties have gone against the Tories
tpoo I,,f
time
There remain, nevertheless, certain facts about
the election which Sir William lIarcourt has not
Thought ii worth while TO dwell There rs the fact
that this great Liberal triumph has left the Liberal
party III a minority in the House Of Commons. The
returns are very complete with the exception of
two seats for which the voting does not take place
TIL next week. The whole number of members
chosen is GGs. of whom 800 are Liberals and 53G
are not Liberals The antI-Llbcra majority Is four
not large majority, certainly but majority
enough to keep the Tories in and the Liberals ont
unless the later apply to the pGrnetes for help.
This, however, Sir William Ilarcourt cannot do for
his whole argument Is based upon the emission o.
Ireland frcm hts calculations. The great Liberal
triumph, therefore, is frut!css triumph, and the
world has a habit Of looking coldly on victories
which leave the enemy IL pos OF the field of
battle.
Many are the other facts which seem inconsist-
cnt with tins claim of dcci led Liberal victory such
as the increase OF tho Tory vote IN Liberal constIt-
UencIes and the revolt of tho boroughs from Mr.
Gladstone The Liberals have won 1873 English
comfy seats to % lOry but ont Of p I'll OF nearly
two million and half county votes, the Liberal
majority is Just oycr 100000 This is not very
safe basis for a prediction of permanent Liberal
asceulancy. Sprcullons of this sori. however
4 A. Il
partlsans may marshal facts and manipulate rgGrc,
till they tired; thcy cannot disturb the decision
OF the country oralt"r the fact that Mr. Gladstone
appealed 20 the wnole kingdom for majority and
has not got il. Nor Is there any feature in the
whole business more striking than the result in that
portion of the kingdom which Sir William lIarcouIt
Is so DESTROYS TO eliminate from the general survey,
Ireland In Ireland the Liberal party has not been
beaten it has been cxtmgnisied Ireland returns
not one single follower OF the Liberal statesman
who has heen from the Irish point of view. incom-
paraby the greatest OF her English brnelactor'
What is evident is that the country is not dis
po&cd 10 corEde unTeserycdly in either of the two
parties which ask 10 be allowed to govern it. One
reason for the dIstuust Of the Liberals which the
voters have shown Is that thc Liberal party u
really two parties aad not | have dwclt on
this often enough, AID | refer to it nov
tween Liberals apd Radicals is likely to have on
the Immediate political future There are no sta
tistics which give you an authoI alive form the
numbers of these two divisions of the Liberal party.
New members arc not returned as Liberals ana
Radicals, but simply as Liberals. In prominent
cases 1t is easy to draw the line Everybody knows
thar Mr. GOschen aud Mr. Forster are Liberals aud
that Mr.. Chamberlain AMI Sir Charles Dixie are
Radicals II is not less certain that in the early
massacre Of Liberal candidates by the bOr0ughs n
very large proportion of the victims were fol-
lowers of Mr.. Chamberlain or identified in some
way with the Radical wing of the party. When
the counties began to roll up great maion,ies
against the Conservatives, 1t was assumed that
those victories Radical victories. and that
Hodge had been won by the prospect Of three acres
aud ccw. Certainly Chamberlain had an Illu-
cnce, aud a great iulluence, with the agricultural
voter: greater, l should have thought. than all
| other Influences combined. But was told vcster-
| day by leading Liberal who has gone into this
| question that the actual majority of Liberal
county members are not Radicals. The majority.
he insists, gained their votes by repudlatiag the
doc Cnes Of ransom and redistribution of property
| They renowned Mr.. Chamberlain ana all his
works. appealed to the more enlightened pcrtisn of
the ccusti uency, and so won. he total number of
! Radical county members, according TO him. doe
nOt exceed sixty. lie goes mucn further than this
| Assuming that a split Shoud occur, there
| arc not. said my Liberal calculator, maIe
than thirty Liberals IN tho whole House
| of Commons who would elect to share the fortune
| of Mr.. Chamberlain as against Mr.. Gladstone. This
| is a sanguinc estimate.
| The possibility of split between Liberals and
Radicals is not, however, the first thing in mems
MINDS to-day; it is subsidiary to two other ques-
TONS These two are: first, whether an effort
shall be made TO turn out Lord Salisbury's Govern
ment; second what is to be done about Irelandl
The Liberals and Radicals are not united. it would
appear, on eitker. Mr.. Gladstone wants to settle
the Irish question himself and can only settle it IN