Savannah morning news. [volume] (Savannah) 1868-1887, 1885-01-12
- oorroN HIGH Or LOWE
The Outlook Uncertain, and still Room
for = Material Decline.

for q Material Decline.
1t is generally considered that cotton IS
in a strong position. Our crop is said to
be short. and it is asserted that there viii
ssnot be enough to go around;' hence II
follows, as generally argued, that prices
must 90 I'D to check consumption. The
fact is, cotton is neither very high nor
very low. at say from III to llAc. Tor the
summer months, and there IS stlll room
for a material decline, provided there Is
not a powerful combination 10 keep prices
nm. The outlook is very uncertain, but II
would he We'll not to be too confident Of an
advance right away. While the crop is
said by leading authorities to be only
). 400, 900 to 100000 bales, the trade at
large cannot easily admit that it will
prove so small; indeed, it now looks as II
5,500, 600 would be a reasonable and con-
serYatiye estimate. Let US see if the de-
felt at the close of the year will be as
great as is usually claimed.
Last year at this time the supply OF
American cotton, present and prospect
i've, was as follows:
Visible supply (American). ........... .2,S55.OOo
Balance e:ap ..-........ .............l 'ZlO,OoO
ro,s, ..... i,515,050
Now, in making up this years figures,
we have to estimate the overland and
Southern consumption" for December,
aud we put it at 10, 600, against l67 900
| the previous year, that being rather bet
ter than the proportion OF the preceding
! three months. This gives us for this
| year:
Visible supply American. 2,525, 000
Balance crop $500 600 I'z-O'VVO
Total ,s45, 600
Thus we have as the present and pros
pectiye supply this year only about 100000
! bales less than last year, when we mad
| the surplus of the monster crop OF the
| year before.
Hitherto the consumption has been put
at the same as last year in Europe, but
in America it has been considerably less;
and as we contrived TO get through last
year with visible supply OF American
! on Sept. l of $4,000 bales, it does not
1 seem unlikely tEat We will manage TO
| pull through this season on the pTesump-
~, ~ supply without serious difficulty.
The Egyptian crop g pronounced the
finest ever produced, and the supplies
from India and elsewhere are estimated
at about the same as last year, perhaps
! rather more. II will, therefore, be seen
that the statistics Of cotton do not after
all so strongly indicate material adj
vance.
The transactions in futures in the
New York Exchange and elsewhere have
been fairly large, and it is very probable
that great many ''lOng" contracts are
still carried. Should receipts hold out
/ pretty tree a while longer, and should
| there prove TO be no adYuately strong .'bull
clique" to sustain the market, some of the
| ''lOngs" will soon lose patience and COM
mence selling out. Doubtless these will
be found sufficiently numerous to create
a very respectable stampede as the mar
| ket gives way under their offerings. II
the 'big operators" are interested on the
'1bull side'' there is not much likelihood
! Of a disastrous break under the present
aspect of affairs. But they may not be so
/ interested, or, il they are, they may at any
| time suddenly change their front, When
| manipulation enters the market reason
/ and statistics are not worth much.
1t is by no means the writer's purpose
] OF desire to bear cotton, but merely
| to oaGtiOn the sanguIne who declare it to
| be impossible" IOr cotton to 20 down,
against an excess of enthusiasm. the
/ position of cotton is by no means intrin-
sically BeaE, and if is Yerv likely that we
will see higher prices sooner or later.
Just now, however, things have rather
unsettled look, and it would be wise, per-
! haps, to Ego slow" If we were buying,
we would be satisfied with a sufficiently
modest venture TO leave enough reserve
to Improve the average at half cent
or so lower. URSATAURUS.