Savannah morning news. [volume] (Savannah) 1868-1887, 1885-05-10
PEACE NOT YET CERTAIN.
THE ARBITRATION HITCH APT
TO PROVE INsURMOUNTABLE.

EngIishmen Convinced that Her DipI0-
matists Are Being OutgeDeraled-The
Czar Evidently Stin Bent on Occupying
Herat-Esrl Dufferins Attitude Not
One of Opposition.
LONDON, May 9.-The Anglo Russian
situation continues to be enveloped in a
cloud of uncertainty. 1t Is absolutely
impossible to predict what day may
bring forth. No sooner had the people
begun to become recOnciled to the idea Of
the submission of the difficulty to arbi-
tratiOn than reports began TO prevail
questioning the probability Of there being
any arbitration after all the talk as to the
great things 1t was about to accomplish.
Tonight no one processes to understand
what the precise condition OF negotia-
tions with Russia may be. The average
Englishman finds it difficult, if not abs0-
lutely impossible, to disabuse him elf
of a feeling that, whatever Premier Glad
stone and Ear Granville may say to the
contrary, Russian diplomatsts are get
ting the better OF the British. Every de-
lay in negotiations has redOunded to Rus
sia IS advantage.
RUssIA'S RAILWAYS.
While the Ministers have been talking,
Russian railways have been actively
pushed toward the Afghan frontier, and
Russian troops have seized debatable ter
ritOry. These are the facts, and the aver
age BritOh grows impatient when an at
tempt is made to beiittle their importance
or obscure them with a cloud of words.
The position of affairs tonight is SO
involved in uncertainty and doubt as to
create general feeling that the proposed
arbitration is likely to fall through. This
feeling gains weight from the announce
ment made to-day that there is likely 60 be
considerable delay in preparing the pre-
liminary details. There is no denying
that this announcement is received by
many people with a smile.
THE NECESSITY FOR DELAY.
Delay, it is said, VIII De necessary in
order to allow the Cabinets of the. two
countries to come to a decision upon the
precise points to be submitted to the arbi-
traitor. Some people profess to think that
this process of arriving at a preliminary
understanding Will be so fruitful a source
of delay that the chancesaOt arbitration
taking place at all are decidedly slight.
The Cabinets, it is thought. may find
themselves as much at sea in deciding
what shall be submitted to the arbitrator
as they were in trying to come to an I'M
derstanding in regard to the original
difficulty. 1t is hum 'rOusly suggested
that they may be obliged to resort to pre-
liminary arbitration in order to determine
what shall be submitted to the arbitrator.
FIELD FOR FUN.
The possibilities of this sort Of diplo-
macy open a rich field to imaginative
statesmen. This view of th9 situation
gains additional likelihood when one con-
siders the latest exchange of views that
has taken place between Earl Granville
and Baron de Staal. Between these
diplomatists the differences of s0pinion
about such primary questions as the
scope of the proposed arbitration and the
zone of delimitation still remain unset
tied. Whether these divergent views can
be recOnciled and common standpoint
reached from which TO consider the main
question is by no means certain. Baron
de Staal has proposed that the whole
scheme of arbitration shall be abandoned
in case comparison of the evidence re-
gardirg the Pendieh incident shall he
found to sustain Russia's interpolation
Of the agreement of March II.
GRANVILLE's DEMAND.
Earl Granville is inclined to accede to
this proposition, but only on the condition
that Russia will grant a definite treaty in
which she shall pledge herself not 10 make
any further advance into Afghanstan.
There is little likelihood that Russia
would make any such treaty as Earl
Granville suggests. There is increasing
reason to believe that the possession Of
PendJeh has whetted the appetite of the
vOraciOus Russian bear, and that nothing
but Herat will long appease his cravings.
Russians here in London. who are on
terms OF intimacy with the officials of the
Russian embassy, do not hesitate to de-
clare openly that Russia intends to take
Herat.
RUSSIA BOUND TO TAKE HERAT.
They assert that 1t will be an easy
matter to obtain the assent of the Ameer
TO Russian occupation, and they declare
that no treaty which should propose to
forbid such action on the part of Russia
would have any binding effect. When
the opportunity comes or is made to seize
Herat, Herat will be seized, no matter
what the treaty stipulations may be.
This opportunity is not likely 10 come inn
mediately, they think, and Russia they
aver Will for the present make no adj
vance beyond the line Of the frontier
which shall be agreed upon in the coming
negotiations IN London. They say further
that Russia does not contemplate inter-
yening in the affairs Of Herat prOpFiO
ntOtu-of her own accord.
THE CZAR's Willy SCHEME.
But when local tribes, together with
HeEat, shall ask for the protection OF the
Gar, Russia is bound 10 incorporate
them In her dOminions. Englishmen
familiar with the story Of the aunOtation
OF merry think that they understand what
The Russians mean when they speak OF
local tribes "asking" protection of the
Car There are shrewd su-piciOns ailnat
That the impOrtunate asking for prOtCc-
ton by the Meryii, which the Car had
no heart TO withstand, was not quite
pr0pfiJ m0tH. These expressions
oi opinion and belief on the part
OF Russians who have access
TO the Russian embassy are a fair rehec-
ton Of the tone of Baron dc Staals recent
communication 10 Earl Granville. The
practical upshot Of the whole matter is
that Russia refuses 10 enter into n treaty
hNing limit b. her territory, and binding
her 20 the maintenance Of frontier so
liked, unless the rule OF the Ameer shall
be so firmly kept within the line Of the
troater that all tribe disturbances will
bo promptly repressed, cOllusi0ns be-
tween Sarukhs and Afghans prevented
and order az Herat preserved.
AFGHAN APATHY.
The diplomatic position Of Earl Gran
vile has been weakened by recent adj
vices received from Lord Dunerin,
Niceroy OF India, on the present
state OF affairs in Afghanistan. These
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