The National tribune., 1885-07-02
THE BUSINESS OUTLOOK.


THE BUSINESS OUTLOOK.
Through a long period of business depres-
sion millions of people in this country, en-
ployers and employed, in all branches of
manufactures, trade and agriculture, have
eagerly watched for signs of better times"
For many months, during last Fall and Win
ter, the belief was generally expressed that
the Spring of 1885 would see marked ina
provement in all departments of business.
Thus far these hopes have not been realized,
and to-day the prospect is not one of encour-
agement. Many persons regard the New
York stock market as an index to the busi-
ness condition of the country. These found,
in the marked advance in prices two weeks
ago, what appeared to them as good ground
for anticipating a speedy revival of trade.
The advance was, however, of short dura-
tion. During the past few days prices of
shares have "sagged" to the old level, and
the long-expected "bull movement seems
as far off as at any time since the decline
began in 1881.
The amount of idle money accumulating
in the banks of the large cities is enormous.
Last week the banks of New York city Eeld
$157, ,5S5, 300, which is considerably more
than twice the amount in their vaults year
ago. Many attempts are made to explain
this. One suggestion is that large sums are
coming back to this country which were
transferred to Europe when the agitation of
the silver question had created general dis
trust. The facts do not justify this expla-
nation, as shown by the movements of gold
and the official statements of exports and
imports. 1t is clear that money, in the
shape of actual cash, is not flowing to this
country. As for transfers by exchange it is
enough to say that the excess of exports
over imports of merchandise was $3,300000
in May. $56,000,000 in the five months end
ing with May, and $165, 100000 in the II
months of the fiscal year now near its close.
1t is fact that shipments of merchandise
to Europe do not serve as transfer of capi-
tai to this country from Europe. The real
reason for the accumulation of money at the
great financial centers doubtless is that there
is no use for it in the usual channels of
trade, owing to the universal stagnation
that prevails.
Last week the United States Treasury
| gained $1,279,000 in gold and So, ,461 900 in
silver, the silver certificates outstanding be-
ing reduced by 81 10000. AS result of
this policy only about 30 per cent of the
duties in New York are paid in silver There
is no evidence of change in financial pros
| poets in any other direction, unless it may
be said that recent political events indicate
that the effort to settle the silver question
| in harmony with the views of the President
| seems likely to provoke more Democratic
| opposition than was anticipated. The most
extravagant statements of injury to wheat
| have been elaborately circulated, but the
markets have utterly refused to respond,
and the decline in elevator wheat in New
York last week was Ii cents, and in corn II
cents, with a slight decline in oats. Pork
and lard are also lower; the tone of the iron
market is rather weaker, but without change
| in price and cotton again declined d six
teenth. The most significant incident in the
dry goods market is that, in spite of the cur
tailment Of production, print cloths fell to
three cents, the lowest price on record. On
the whole the situation is one to excite con-
tinued apprehension for the future, and to
call for the most wise and careful legislation
by the next Congress, upon questions that
constitute important factors in the great
! financial and commercial problem.