New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1885-04-05
POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF WE.

While it is far from clear that there is to be
war between Great Britain and Russia, the eX-
pectation of war is still controlling in
fuence in many markets One does not
wonder that it is supposed the price of grain
NAV be affected, for considerable part OF the
supplies of Great Britain have in years gone by
been drawn from Russia But when the pros
pcct of war appears 10 be the controlling infiu-
ence in the oil market and the cotton market,
and the market for provisions, and is used to
affect the prices, not only of securities which
are largely dealt in abroad, but of stocks which
no foreigners hold, or would under any circum-
stances buy, the natural inference is that the
war prospect is being used for 1t all 1t Is worth.
Upon sober consideration, it will be seen that
while the interests of this country are likely to
be affected in important respects, the war APP
pretended could not be expected to produce
MANY of the results which spectators affect to
believe it will produce.
Perhaps the influence of prolonged war be-
tween Great Britain and Russia would be felt
more in the stock market than anywhere else.
The tendency of such struggle would be to
disturb the investments of a large amount OF
capital in England, and in other countries IN
Europe to render the future of many foreign
securities uncertain, and thus to afford reason
for the transfer of many investments to Amer-
can securities 1t is true that the foreign
markets have been greatly Disguised by the
course of American stocks and the management
of important corporations in this country, and
this disgust went so far that at one time there
| seemed to be general emptying of American
securities upon this market by foreign holders
and SPECTATORS Time has brought some
change of feeling however, as Is natural, and
after all, the dstrust of American stocks was
at the most only little greater than the dis
trust of other o-called securities. Even at the
worst, IN elaborate examination by The London
| EcOn0mis showed that the average dividends
| received by the holders of American securities
were on the whole larger than those which
| British investors had received for a series of
! years from other classes of investments Should
! confidence in other investments be disturbed,
the British capitalist is quite likely to look with
| favor again upon securities which depend upon
| the prosperity of country growing more
rapidly in wealth and population than any other
in the world, and enabled by its geographical
position to hold aoof from all European COM
| picatons. In that event, however, there
should be, and probably would be, greater eau
|
| selecton of American securities to be pur-
chased. and the benefit would be felt, at least at
| first, only by those companies which have been
credtably managed, and are deemed entirely
sound. In the end, of course, the large absorp-
| ton of such securities foreign account
would leave great deal of home capital free
to be invested in stocks of less clearly estab-
| lished worth.
| Probably the influence of war upon the
| grain market has been greatly overestmated.
| The supplies of wheat sent from Russia to
| Western Nations of Europe have not of late
been very large, and would not be wholly in
| terrupted by any war. The greater part would
| go out by rail into Germany, and thus would
enter into the European supply, while there is
little probability that the production of Russia
would be materially diminished, however long
| the war might last. Nor is there any reason to
suppose, on the other hand, that British sup
plies from India or from Egypt would be
| lessened. Russia has few powerful ships of
| war, but it is not probable that British COM
mercs would be materially interrupted. Under
the influence OF protective duties, France aud
Germany are likely to produce grain more
largely in the future, and it is probable that
tho decrease in demand from those Nations Will
be at least as great as any increase in demand