New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1885-10-10

immigration have been more irregular, SO that MI
Smith is wise in not disturbing the records earlier
than 1866.
1t is not needful to spend time in discussing the
fluctuations in the stock market. Although inc
connection between dealings in railway secuIi.ies
and the other phenomena seems to have escapcd ii'
Smiths notice it is nevertheless so that precise
correspondence in times of great depression OF great
activity would not have been ut all surprising
Turning next to the movement Of foreign trade tuo
writer conceves that his theory is to some eAtehV
supported by comparison of the aggregate ci CA
ports and imports. both of merchandise and OF gold
ard silver This Is much as if merchant should
reckon these years peculiarly prosperous IN winch
the aggregate of his receipts and payments was
argest. without any regard 10 the net profits OF
losses But the figures given by no means support
tho theory, for the years Of pinlmum trade were
1862 1868 1868 1870 aud 1885. II is equally
difficult to discover any regular perodlcty Ill 'hc
years of mailman trade.
The weakest part Of the book IS tue chapter
which treats Of the production of grain lhe only
logical foundation that has ever been discovered
for belief that cycles of ten or eleven years might
be found in the movements Of business Is sufpos
tion that the operations Of agriculture may have
been affected on broad scale by the ascerta'he'
pariodcity of sun-spots, or by magnetic disturb
But Mr.. Smith quite discards the idea that bis
supposed rhythmic movement can In any way oc
due to an increase or decrease in the productions OIL
acrlcuturo and reasons that it is not worth wElle
TO COMPARE thes, with minuteness, because tho nd
vance in prices Ct farm products substantially coA
pensates the farmer for any loss in crops Yet the
country has invested certain amount OF lts iaoor
and of its capital and instead of large return gets
a small return. II the farmer Is ia any measure
compensated, as lie sometimes hut not always Is by
an advance in price the rest Of the people as CON
sumers have to bear tho loss being compelled 10 pay
mere tnan the usual price for the food which they
consume. Ii there were discovcTable any clearly
defined pcriodciy in the results oil agricultural
industry corresponding with ascertained changes
in the coalition of the sun or in the intensity Of
magnetic currents there would lie clearer i0nn-
dation for the theory Of rhythmic movements III
business than any which Mr. Smith has suggested.
Uuhanpily there is no such traccaGc connections
The records Of production of wheat are not quite
as perfect rs they might be- but they snicc TO SHOW
clearly tn Vt the yield decreased from loOZ 10 looo
about q per cent it then increased from 1860 to
1869 about 100 per cent decreased in two years
about 20 Dot cent; il then Increased in three years
more than 80 per cent. and decreased about per
cent in the two years ending with 1870; IL IN
creased IN the four years ending with 1890 more
than 20 per cent and a sharp decrease in the single
year 1881 was followed by a further increase cu-
minating with yield of 52o,00o,O00 bushels in
1888 During the past two years the yield las
diminished Beyond the facts that the two years
lS7f and 1881, were both years of small yield. no
indication of periodicity appears
MI Smith enjoys the luxury of poetic magma
ton writes with freedom and fertility Of lustra-
ton, and often with beauty; has read widely.
though perhaps not always accurately and has
published an interesting book. But it cannot be
said that the work IS an important addition t. tie
stock of human knowledge, and IN effort 10 reach
n scientific demonstration of a scientific theory 1t is
merely a melancholy failure.