, 1885-03-27
ABOUT THE WEATHER.
A PROFESSOR GIVES SOME NEW
FACTS ON AN OLD SUBJECT.
No Possible Way of ForecastinE 1t for
Much nore Than Forty Eight Hoars
-The Work which the weather
bureau Does. aI


-oIf tAiu lnt IIUlo@1uIt Us To h1auAncA
his favorite attitude and glanced over his
spectacles at the reporter as he would at n
class in meteorolo "; @sir, the weather is
the commonest topic of conversation, be-
cause 1t IS the only thing that Affects us more
than any other. The. weather prophets
come and go, and after awhile we lose faith
inrhe particular individual, but never in
the possibility Of the prophecy. Tice and
Vennor aud Virgins have long since taken
up their abode with the FL Mehdis Of sci
ence. but We arc still on the lookout for some
one TO tell US with authority, and not rs the
scribes. that next month, or next sum
mer, will 10 a good deal warmer. Each
one Of the well known gentlemen I have
named made several lucky hits in the
weather forecastings, on the strength of
which they sold many thousands Of their
almanaes and turned u pretty penny, but
mi~ies soon became more noticeable than
their hits. and their popularity wanei at
once.
is not the weather bureau very success
ful IN its predictions97 querisd the scribe.
Very nearly 90 per cent. of its predic-
tions are verified continued the professor,
shut what 1t does is a very different thing
from foretelling what the weather will be
for a season OF a year to come 1t simply
takes the weather It finds afioat, and an
nounces its pathway and rate OF speed. For
Instance. it discovers a storm or a cold
wave at Manitoba and tells about when it
will strike Chicago or some other point. A
weather area already formed in the far west
can now be traced with great exactness
until 1t passes away, but beyond this the
weather bureau does not go, and so far as
telling us what next summer is going to be
Is of no more use than a goose bone or a
ground hog. 1t can tell with considerable
accuracy what the weather Of some %particu-
ular locality viii be for twenty-four or forty
aight hours to come, but it does not deal
with those mightier forces lying behind the
creation Of the weather. Whether science
viii ever be able to reach these is a prob
lem for the scientists Sufficient for us TO
know that it has not reached it yet.
W are all living barometers Of more or
less delicacy, and are subject to the skyey
influences. Old wounds are painful before a
rain; our corns ache at such times also: the
head will ache before thunder; sometimes a
feeling Of uneasiness runs through the body
prior to some change in tho weather. Ami
mails seem to be affected in the same way.
You remember, doubtless, an amusing pas
sage in Quentin Durward.p King Louis
XII being minded TO hunt, asks his astrologer
whether the day would be fair, and being
answered in the affirmative, the hunting
party set out. At the entrance to the forest
they meet a charcoal mar with his donkey,
who warns them hat a storm is coming on
Nevertheless they proceed, and, sure enough,
are drenchod in a tempest before the day is
over. Louis ordered the charcoal man be-
fore him, and inquired how he could excel
the learned astrologer in forecasting the
weather. 4 am an ignorant man, Sire,'
said the collier, but l have an astrologer of
my own, who shall foretell weather with any
OF them. Il is the donkey who carries my
obnr~oal urkA alxuou a xwha, ka1 xgoothar Il
approaching points his ears forward, walks
more slowly than usual, and tries to rub
himself against walls The king, laughing,
dismissed his man OF science, and pensioned
tine collier and his donkey, declaring that he
would never trust any other astrologer than
the donkey. We very often follow the ex-
ample of the king and dismiss our Tices and
Vennors and Wigginses, and fall back IN
the ground hog, or the moon, or upon some
holy day. LN
"Scientists,r continued the professor, in 70
sponse to another question, Aare not agreed
as to whether the moon effects the perturba-
tions of the weather or not, but they are
agreed in saying that whatever the influence
Is, they don't know how or ON what occasio
it is excited. Whether the moon influences
the weather or not we know the sun is the
great source and center Of seasonal change,
and a we'll considered theory now is that
the appearance or n~on-appearance Of spots
on the face of the sun has a direct connec-
ton with weather, and points out years of
food or storm or drought Professor Jevons
maintained that the cycle Of sun spots agree
with the cycles of commercial prosperity or
distress, the idea being that general pros
perity or distress depends largely on good or
bad harvests, which In turn depend on the
weather. Iu lsf
"While the past three winters have been
of increasin severity, each succeeding one
being colder than the one preceding, it by
no means follows that we are undergoing
any climatic change. Indeed, so far as OBJ
s~ervation has extended. there has been no
general change in the climate Of the various
countries of the world in the historic period.
There will be a series OF cold years and then
a series Of mild years, sometimes a cold and
n mild year will alternate, but the average
the world over Is about the same now that
1t was centuries ago. There is no reasoning
upon the matter. and there Is no prophecy
ing about 1t. Some Of our old settlers will
tell you that this Is AN old-fashioned win
ter and that the winters thirty or forty
years ago were far colder than those we gem
orally have, but tho study of meteorological
records give no support to their assertion
1t is alleged that since the extension of
cur vast railroad system In the west we
have not been SO much troubled with
drought, but whether the railroads are a
cause, or only q coincidence no scientist
can prove. In other words, the causes that
lie behind the evolution OF the weather have
not yet been discovered, though it is not i'm
possible that they may be. All we can do at
present is to find ont what kind OF weather
is floating around, and then by the aid of
the telegraph inform people in what direc-
ton It is travelling. Even that requires the
greatest accuracy OF observation Our sig
nal service is improving from year TO year,
and from 20 has increased to nearly ~ per
cent Of verified predictions in the past
twelve years II you want to know more
than the weather bureau can tell you. go
not 10 the man Of science, for he don't know,
but rather take observations from the ground
hog, or consider the crispness Of the goose
49,. p ..