New-York tribune., 1885-01-14

is true that a large proportion both OF the men
and guns are worthless, but If fifth part can
be made available it is clear that the action Oh
the British would be greatly embarrassed.
There are fifty millions of Mahometans IN
India. and their loyalty to the British RaJ Is
very doubtful in an emergency. And TINS time
the English would have to encounter a hostile
influence of very different character from that
which animated the Sepoy mutincers In 1897.
During the past twenty years Russia has been
steadily advancing from conquest to conquest
through Central Asia. Covering her military
movements with a specious diplomacy which
completely hoodwinked her rival, she has
absorbed Khanate after Khanate, has reduced
tribe after tribe, until now Afghanistan alone
separates her from India, and her influence Is
stronger to-day at Cabul than that OF the
YiccrOy.
An English party of farseeing statesmen,
represented by men like Sir Henry RawlinsOn,
has all this time been pointing out the danger
of naction and the folly of blind optimism
Every prediction made by that party has been
fulfilled. The progress of Russian conquest
in fact, has been swifter than their expecta-
tions. They pleaded for the protection of Merv,
for example, and even while they uttered their
warning Merv was absorbed, and Herat, = the
gate of India" was threatened. The Optmlsts
affect TO think that Russia will stop when her
boundaries in Asia march with those of Eng
land. and they look forward to settled peace
from the contiguity of so powerful and civilized
neighbor But the present agitation in India
best proves the wisdom Of the sO-called alarm
lat school, for it shows that the question
when Russia will stop is not likely to be left to
her decision. The fact is, rs Arminius YAM
berry points out in a remarkable article in Ihe
Nineteenth Century for the current month, the
prestige of Russia in Asia is enormous, and OF a
kind especially to influence the Oriental mind
The mixture of Eastern ferocity with Western
discipline and science which characterizes
Russian rule has always been very effective,
and her stubborn, irresistible advance has awed
the supcrstitious races in her path. Every one
of her recent cOnquests has been discussed In
the bazaars of Delhi and Calcutta and Bcnares
and Madras and Bombay, and the conviction
that the White Car is making his way to a
death -grapple with the Empress of India has
long since been firmly established throughout
| Ilindustan.
Vambcry. himself neither Russian nor an
Englishman, but a veteran traveller and 0D-
server. is equally confident that the collision
cannot be avoided. and in his paper "Wlll
Russia Conquer India y he points out the new
factors which increase the peril OF the Eng
lish rule. The old bugbear Of distance has
vanished, and the significance OF this change Is
immense. The Caspian is now the starting
point for all Central Asian expeditions. a rail-
/ l..:i, ia t,r.t in ar tnr III nO-(
of controlling the Akhal Tekkes, is being
pushed forward as rapidly as possible over the
steppcS. Vambery says At the very time
am writing this, plans are maturing IN
Russian circles. not only to continue the rail-
" way line between kizil-Arvat and Ashkabad,
but to extend it from the former place to
Sarakhs, and in due time to lay down the rails
@brtwrcn Sarakhs and Ilcrat.' The most
| difficult part has already been constructed.
! What remains is comparatively easy. Ana
! when this line is completed from Michallovsk
! To IIerat, acco riding to Nambery, the entire
distance between the eastern shore OF the
| Caspian Sea and licrat, the so-caled key to
! India can be made in forty eight hours at the
most In summing up the entire distance 1t
! results in this that taking the wcstcrnmost
starting point namely, Odessa, an army can
! he thrown in six days from the south oi Russia
into the interior of Asia without any great cx
"eItion and without Interruption If this Is
true the question of the feasibility OF an IN
vasion of India is settled in the Affirmative.
! II remains to be asccrtained whether Russia
harbors such an intention. And when thisp phase
of the subject is examined there can be found IN
her history and policy nothing to warrant the
belief that she would be likely to put away from
her such m opportunity for ACKNOWLEDGMENT, II
the conjunction seemed favorable. All things
considered, the alarm of England appears OPP
portunc and wel-founded