Washington standard. [volume] (Olympia, Wash. Territory) 1860-1921, 1884-02-22
THE FASTEST POSSIBLE
TROTTER.

HOW FAST HORSES WILL ULTIMATELY
TRor. AND WHEN THE MAXIMUM WILL
BE REACHED.
New York Sun.
How fast will the fastest possible
that can ever he attained by the Ameri-
can trotti.Ig horse for Il distance of one
mile?
These are questions which two we'll
known scientific men, Prof. William II.
Brewer, of Connecticut. and Mr.. Fran
els f. Nipher, of Missouri, have lately
endeavored to answer in three papers
contributed to The American Journal of
Science. The first of these articles,
by Prof. Brewer, appeared i'll April.
The contributions of Mr.. Nipher are
published in the numbers for July and
August.
Prof. Brewer publishes table show
ing the number of trotting horses
which have attained or surpassed varl-
Gus rates of speed ranging from , 30
to 2:ll for a series of wears extending
from 1913 to 1852. From this table it
appears that in 1853 there was only one
IoISt tIIstl Ilttt ilbiittt IL llillt III Nv vi
better; in 1853 the number had in
creased to IA; in 1868 to 80: in 1873 to
$40; in 1882 to l,6S4. The table also
shows that up to 1882, 495 horses had
tro.tel a mile i'll . % or better; 275 in
:23 or better; 156 in Dbl or better;
60 in = 10 or better; IL in 2:l7 or bet
ter, and 8 in 2:15 or better. Il leave
it to mathematicians," said Prof Brewer
in reference to this table. Ito plot the
curves which Immediately suggest
themselves to determine how fast
horses will ultimately trot and when
this maximum will be reached"
Mr.. Nipher has undertaken the task
thus suggested. His first conclusion,
rs stated in the July number of The
American Journal of Science. was that
the maximum speed to which the Amer
lean trotting horse will constantly APP
proximate, but never reach, is one mile
in ~ seconds, or l 30. He also con-
cludes that the tine of TIE trott;ng
horse will be reduced to within one
second of this figure in 800 wears after
the year 1860, that is to say, in the year
of our Lord 222O. Mr. Nipher does
not claim absolute precision for his re-
suits, and SAYS that the maximum speed
may possibly be as great rs 100 seconds.
In the course of ten years, however
he thinks the limit can he fixed with
accuracy, and he is quite sme that
eventually the MAXIMUM speed OF
trotting and running horses will differ
only by few seconds.
In his last article Mr.. Nipher states
that he has made n new calculation by
mathematical instead Of graphical
methods, and has thus obtained 81 see
onds instead of SO seconds as the most
probable figures for the minimum time
of trotting mile. The probable error
seconds, and it is not likely that the
running horse will cut his record down
by five seconds, so that it is probable
the trotter will finally surpas, the run
ming horse.
If this prediction is verified, the in
habitants of the United States in tn,
twenty third century will have horse.
that can get over the ground by means
of an artificial gait faster than by {
natural gait. We believe that al
writers agree that running is natural t.
horses, while fast trotting is not. Mr.
Nipher states, however. AS Il well-knowI
fact that some herds of wild horses OF
the plains were natural PAGERS, 80 fas
and steady that they nearly all pre-
served their pacing gait even when pur
sued by the best running horses. HI
speaks of one large white Texan pace
that never could be caught.