The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1884-08-24
POLITICAL PROBARILITIEA


osrnss aad Irish vstsrs- New VIII Thsy Get
To THE EDITOR OF The suns Sir: As Il may
be useful to you in reference to probabilities Of the
election ye you the conjecures the basis simply
OF the Irish vote. Appendn2 the number OF German
voters. and approximating the 50. John strength.
stnstician places some figures occ asionay before
the public does good to trannnillze nerves and show
what facts The Importance 1t the Irish vote has
not been appreciated Heretofore soidy Democratic
now makes fearful factor IN the decision OF the
coming Presidential election bccsuse Of its magnitude
In certain important iocsltes which are also marked
as centres of Republican revolt What the extent OF
the Irish detection An unknown quantity. when
must be nnny1ed aud c0rlecturcd from Various stand
points II B!auc should lie President tile hes, Office III
his gift is earned by Bragg OF Wisconsin. former good
Republican for his invitation to go aud be -"
five assume that rs = general average onc.lfth or
the irish will for Blaine. twofths to Butler and
tmonfths to Cleveland. simple calculation VIII show
startling results This basis IL better for Cleveland than
the assumption BY the Blaine leaders that onehaf OF
the Irish vote ~ already in the Republican camp II
wi no, do to take the feeling In localities for rs nm ex
ample sm told OF precinct In tins city where the
Irish vote will he east i7o blaine. Cleveland nearly all
Sc,uaed by hatred OF England and fear Of free trade
The German vote has been usually nearly equally
divided between the Two old pnrties-here preponder
atinx Democratic but In Wisconsin largely Republican
II 10 to calculate the result II there 10 any sure
and certain detection In any particular state.
As to the Butler strength nobody can estimate II In
Its growing aud formidable proportions nor ms to who
will smash aud where 1t may lead to- The Toledo Con
venun " 1873 not backed BY newspapers of power
and influence. und II did not have money to pay
its campaign expenses Yet 2fDO0 men fell into line
and voted for Its Congressional enthusiastically in
the Northern States. Revolutions extraordinary
tho days OF can electricity aud the press with plenty
of money for campaign. the backing Of powerful news
paersat the very inception by such great factors as
Tux sun md the com mPrcidt misunderstanding the
patty and support Of great bodies Of men Uncliding
those 2,sOOUD voters referred to- correct present
estimate OF what the antionopo stic labor elements
may accomplish in the next sixty days cannot be made
II Tamn"ny now steps INTO the arena. with the star
the champion OF the peoples party, 1t would give ter
rble impetus to the movement; and II the people the
plain voters of every clnss take 1t into their heads
comnc irrespective Of party dictates the orders Of
machine leaders after one Of the old parties may be
nOweg.d irretrevably and hope!essly smashed what
prophet Is there 10 that they hot turn upoE the
other Old party. flushed with anticipated victory and
rend In pieces before the des OF November bring fru
ition to their hopes'
These may be mere idle conf lures and yet such
illimtabc despo,sns that Of Turkey have changed
rulers In thrtysx hours after Inception Of
ton and France with pescite amounting almost 10
unaninty in establishing the empire in 1871 saw that
Government and dynasty crushed in six months there
after by the uprising Of u single day.
Aabamna-- Nearly equal black and white vote
ArNansus-Larsely Democratic.
chas r ;nr. ts s vote ns. ennnH
for Butler aud fth Blaine 1000 uu take three
hfths from Cleveland. l2UO Republican plurality, TO-
UD German vote. s.uD; Independent Republicans U;
81. John. 800.
Colornio--Irish. 900; Republican majority 2uO
Similar lrsh detection woulI make the plurality 3UU
Independents, u: ~. john 80; herman vote, 1870
Connecticut tj,pU Republican inujDrity)-Irsh vote,
l5,up. From Cleveland. 800; 10 Blaine. 3uUo E-pub
St John, 2,un; German vote 5000.
Delaware q SD Democratic niajority)-i 800 Irish
Deduct AN from Cleveland; udd 40 to Blaine. Demo.
cratic plurality so: 81 john, u; Independent
Florida GOO Democratic majority for
Biane foreign vote Insignificant. except Cuban. which
IL u dOuhtful element.
GeOrKns tDrmocrhtic)-foreign vote ALL 2UD,
Illinois tRepnblican majority 3DtpUJ-lrish. 3G0O0:
from Cleveland. 1900; to Blaine. 6.OO. Republican
plurality aiUM; Independents ioooo; ST. john 1900;
Indiana (Repubilcan. 7.ooJ-Irsh 0ooO; to Blaine,
J. $40: Independents. 900; ST. John % GsrnlnIis
ls,UD: for sae 2O.ubl
Iowa (+o.n :.publicnn)-Irish. 10000; Independents
u; ~ john 1919: Germans. 9lObI
kAnsa. tSluU Republican, 900; Independents
o; ~. John. -. tOI: ti-rnni. 1860.
Kentucky t<u,nU Democ ratici-lrsh 800; Indepen.
dents. i: 81 John, 2,UtJ. German. I.tsU.
Louisiana (blnrk majority b.OJoJ-Deniocratic re-
turns. lj.uD Irish, Sun; Independents all against
Democrats: 81 John ~ German +.sD
50: -. John, 80; German aD: Canadian. 1905.
Mary land u-,n. mhj 5iDlt-Irsh $50; detection
3:ap; add to Blaine lltaI-DemOcrats UtIJ Inoep
dents. o. ST. John. 2,W; Gernan. ln.U1
Massachusetts uS5UD Rrp.J-li.ibJU Butler; OF the
former luuNwcre Democratic ~ the Boston Post school;
OF the Independent Republicans 1000. Four nfths OF
the Irish wil support Butler and the others Cleveland
Anuyzed the Massachusetts vote will found today
about as follows: