The new dominion. [volume] (Morgantown, W. Va.) 1876-1904, 1884-08-30

e5i1t1S " "sn bho iueStioH
with a good deal Of eagcrness -awl,o
will be the next PresideDt?'
The Democratic politician on the
hastings, is asserting with much as
surance that it will be Cleveland:
the Republican politician is asserting
with equal assurance, that it will be
Blaine.
Neither Of the knows.
The best informed sources the
wisest newspapers and the most
astute politicians are making no con
lident predictions on the result Of
this campaign.
1t is conceded that there never was
a presidential campaign in which
were so many uncertain elements-in
which there were SO many indica-
lions of division and disintegration
Of the political forces heretofore relied
upon by the party organizations.
So far as the issues between the
two leading parties have beer made
up-so far as the campaign has de
veloped, the situation is about this:
Public sentiment has Indicated q
prononaeed disposition to get rid Of
the Republican party-to make u
radical change in the administration
to reform the mrnner and methods
that have obtained in political and
governmental affairs for the past
decade, by complete chang in the
administration.
In other words, there is no phase
Of public sentiment more pronounced
than that which indinates that the
Republican party has lost the conf
dence of the people.
But it is possible that the people
may be defeated in this determine
ton to make a change. Under our
system a majority of the people do
not always determine who shall be
President. The Republican party
has been in the minority since Grant,
yet it has continued to have the Pres
ident In this campaign the popu-
lar vote is decidedly anti Republican.
But it is the Independent and "pur-
enable" vote that really holds the
balonce of power. The Republicans
bought the last election and they
are willing to buy this. They have
the public Treasury. They may
do il.
When we come to estimate the
probabilities of the campaign on
the basis of the last electoral vote,
the result is equally uncertain.
The total electoral vote is 40l.
The successful candidate must get
20l electoral votes. The States that
are conceded to be Democratic may
be thus enumerated: Alabama 10,
Arkansas Z, Delaware 3, Flourida 4,
Georgia II, Kentucky l3, Louisiana,
s, Maryland s, Missouri 16, Missis-
sippi o, North Carolina II, South
Carolina 8, Tennessee -, Texas 10,
Virginia IL, West Virginia G.
Total electoral vote 153
The States that are conceded to
be Republican are: Colorado 3, Con
necticut 6, Illinois 90, Iowa Is, Kan
sas 8, Maine 6, Massachusetts IA,
Michigan ID, Minnesota 7, Nebraska
5, New Hampshire 4, Ohio 90, Penn
sylvania 80, Rhode Island A, Vermont
4, Wisconsin II.
Total electoral vote ia.
In the above list we have named
| every State as Democratic about
which there is no reasonable doubt,
and likewise every State as Republi-
can about which there is no reason
able doubt. Ali, therefore, that is
conceded, or reasonably certain at
this stage Of the campaign is that
the Democrats will get 1873 electoral
votes, or As less than majority; and
that the Republicans will get TIA
votes, or 81 less than majority.
This leaves IA electoral votes dis
tributed among the following doubt
full States, VIZ: California 8, INDIANA
Is, Nevada 3, New Jersey 9, New
York SO, Oregan 3. Total, a.
The question is whether the Dem
ocrats or Republican can secure the
most of these doubtful electoral
votes. 1t will be seen that New
York has SO, or nearly one half of
the doubtful votes. The party that
carries New York sis almost certain
of clecting the President or these
doubtful States we are warranted in
saying that the chances are in favor
of the Democrats carrying every one,
unless it be New York. OF this
latter State, no man however politi-
eally wise he may be, can venture a
prediction Probably John Kelley
could say with some assurance how