Daily Kennebec journal., 1884-10-14

1t Will be observed that, IN the largest Vot'
ever polled IN State election, the democrat
had a plurality of 1859 last year. Blu
their vote AT that time was less than the vote
cast in 1880 for President Garfield. The
republicans have reason TO be hopeful abou
Ohio, but ought not to expect too much
| Several reasons for caution may be men
| toned
l. For the frat time in a Presidential
year. the republicans have the influence Of
the State Government against them Until
| 1888 they had carried the State it the Guber-
Material election preceding each Presidential
year last year local causes and shameless
| fraud combined to defeat them.
III. From 10000 to 20, 900 republicans
always have stayed at home in the October
struggle preceding a Presidential election.
| In 1876 there were 26,000 more votes polled
in November than 10 October, of which the
republicans gained 1900. In 1880 there
were 10. 900 more votes polled in November
than in October, and the vote for Garfield
was l3, 900 more than the vote for the Secre-
tary OF State month before.
Ill Prior to the Garfield campaign the
State had been very close on full vote. In
1875 Haves and hard money riumphed by
only 5.544 plurality. In the October election
of 1876 the republicans had only 6,636 plu
rality, and in November Hayes had only
1916 But when prosperity came in 1879,
and the mills and mines We're all at work. the
republican plurality sweled to H. l29, and in
1880, in October, to 9,005.
~. The State has been peculiarly affected
by industrial conditions The rural demo
cratic population is steady; the population of
the manufacturing and mining districts is
largely republican in good times, but is va
riable. When labor is not well employed the
vote of the manufacturing and mining regions
is usually smaller. and dissatisfied men who
are ignorant of the causes of trouble are
tempted to vote the democratic ticket This
year labor in such regions is much disorgan-
lied and scattered, but the cause of the trouble
is 80 clearly the democratic agitation of the
tariff question that republican losses may be
balanced by gains
V. The temperance question has had
powerful effect in local elections for the past
two years. Whether it win now. for the first
time, become large enough to affect a contest
on national issues is yet to be determined.
vi The democrats have employed money
IN large amounts for the past two years in
buying votes, and claim that they can buy
MANY thousand men whose names they have,
and for whom the money it waiting. 1hs
auhacious boast, made by a member of the
democratic executive committee to Mr..
Gutheridge, correspondent of The Chicago
News, is certainly supported by visible re-
suits last year.
The recent changes, it will be seen, render
it by no means certain that the republicans
have larger reliable plurality than they had
in 1876, and make il possible that purchase
of few thousand votes,if that could be safe
ly effected. might turn the scale. Any plu-
rality whatever will Indicate that the rpnnbli-
cans have had power to wrest the State from
its present democratic control, and that it is
safe in November. But whatever plurality
the republicans secure, above the $685. OBJ.
tained IN the October contest of 1876, will
indicate II substantial increase of republican
strength. either by means of the tariff question
or through Mr. Blaine's personal popularity,
and there will be good reason to expect that
the republicans will be stronger bv $4,000
votes or more in November than in October,
as they were in 1876 and again in 1880 The
greatest difficulty will be to prevent the nfa-
nous frauds and briberies which the demo.
Gratis openly boast they are going to perpetrate
particularly in Cincinnati and Cleveland,
II that can be done, the republicans ought
to prevail. and Notwithstanding the dispersion
of voters in the mining and manufacturing
regions, and the uncertainty as to the tenn
perance vote should have at least as large a
plurality as they gained in the October cleo
ton in 1876. To expect as favorable results
in time of great depression as were attained
in the fall OF 1880, when every industry was
grandly prosperous, would not be reasonable.
If such results should now be approached it
would be signal proof of the strength of the
republican principles and candidates.-N Y
Tribune.