New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1884-05-05
THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE
A DEMOCRATIC ESTIMATE.

The reports from the Republican con ventiOns
are now complete that estimates may readily be made
which The Post printed yesterday and reproduces
with few unmporant changes TO conform TO the latest
news has been made AFTER very careful Iaminaon and
IL heheved 70 De az nearly correct as possible II VIII De
Arthur 1922 and lacks only 40 OF the majority
10 nominate. In 1876 Mr. Blaine received 285
$751; or % Of majority In 1890 Mr. Blaine received on
the first ballot 2s4 votes go less than GrsnV and 275
when the break FOR Garned commenced. His highest
therefore, that II the table correct, the exsecresry
hall many in 1876 OF 1880. To secure tue
~ additional votes necessary his rends look Illinois
with A votes Logan out OF the the 10 from Ohio,
sherman retiring: the Il from Connecticut the IA from
Arkansas, wnich some Claim Tor HIN BOW GeOrgtas p.
iOusiana is and VrgnlAs "a certainly II DezcndorPs
delegation be admitted.
DECISION PROBABLE ON THE FOURTH BALLOT.
From me Ch.crg0 JOuylGL
The first ballot may be properly called in
sense, OF merely complimentary Votes and the
second will be sort Of preliminary sirrlsh along the
whole Line for the purpose OF testing the enemy's
strength, and the third the favorte sons will be
ordered 10 the rear and the ght will then begin In dead
earnest The man VINO snail De nominated must depend
for hl- votes upon the combinations thar viii 10 made
then and there on the floor Of the convention and among
the remnant o delegates VINO ready abandon their
hands on the second ballot VIII most likely deern ne the
real original strength " Elaine, Arthur Lluunds. Logan
and sherman. and the figures viii tell with mathematical
accuracy what union OF force will push certain %
the 'front.' and place tile laurel of victory upon
brow. II Iooks now as though the Blaine-sherman-
Logan combination might decide the nomination an
order the curtain 20 be rung 0owu the great political
drama ter the taking Of the fourth ballot with brilliant
c1.ured Hghts ana fine payng by Che band that soul
inspiring music. Behold the Conqucriug Hero Comesl"
An UNCERTAIN FACTOR
From The Lhlc1gJ IAsr-oc az .fdata Pej'st' icdhl
II is now plain that the contest IN tine COuvcn-
ton Is To be ue weon Blaine ard Arthur. We're The dele
gales Instructed they o1r years there would
that IN o.. the states the leading representative
Publican. who have been selected as DELEGATES are let
r-c o yoc s Interest, ot Tie party demand. adds an
quantity Il is u.ys conceded that a. between Hinc
AMI Arthur, tlc Edmlnis, sherman, Gresham, and Lin
CON "a will - ~ Arthur L Is claimed that the Logan
men VIII 20 % Blaine. but this viii nos be tie case Ia
Illinois, where logan has lrreourt1- OF Lis enure
Il an open secret thar when LOGAN Is out OF the ied
mi. 0u,-af Of his Illinois supporter. viii 20 to Arthur
In c,uIuat NJ the siren tn possible Change senti-
men, ON the usrt or gates II iuu-r be- rene bere mt
not WORT hd- been against PRESIDENT Arthur thai
uls adIu trtDu LAS been lndOrsed ~ nearly every
state convention, AMI ne tendency 3 toward nm, and
cannot possibly De turned away him. His majority
IN convention VIII depend ou the momentum OF tLs ILL
pulse.
MAY BE NOMINATED WITHOUT A CONTEST
from me ttrbmona Dtsoat-h lEsn.J
Ii looks now as Il Blaine mi-hC be- nominated
without con,s Il Mr.. Arthur wtndrtws nothing can
prevent #. And II Mr. Arthur does withdraw it VIII
be because lac wiling 10 endure tie mOrUncdtOn VI de
feat by Blame II he can only thereby defeat Blame.
NOT ENCOCRAGNG TO ARTHUR.
From me Chicay0 Times lII.Aj
The record of delegates chosen to the Rcpub-
National tOuventon shows that Blame mas already
passed Arthur IN the race. and now leads him about
Arthur and the poor mlu viii probably order another
suit vi clothes TO Keep his spirits ~.
As EASY A. ROLLING OFF A LOG.
From TIE f7tsbnrg -.mHlerctal GG<sre.
Never mind the trouble OF eiectIng Blaine.
Lei him nominated and tue Of 1t VIII easy as
rolling Oh lOg.
A DEMOCRATIC VIEW OF THREE REPUBLICANS
Mr.. Arthur has made a good President, and
he deserves well OF DIS party ana VI tue c0uatry.
NJ Is .-ne - personally TIE most popular Republican
MI. Edmund, is a Chrlstan statesman simply.