New-York tribune., 1884-10-14
REVIEW OF THE FIELD.
WAITING FOR. BUT NOT DEPENDENT ON,
OHIO.
AN ESTIMATE OF TIE PROSPECTS ELSE


uncertainty there. partly real partly Imagined leads
to many misconceptions Of the situation In the country
whole. Ths to be "a good time. therefore.
while The result In that State IA yet unknown. o pre-
sent through yonr columns n statement of the facts
which will he found NJ service to guide the judgment ~
many whether the result In Ohio proves gin
or not
begin with the important fact that the vote IN ohio
IN October ior the Republican state ticket will assrey
10 Smaller by several thousand than the vuc for tho iie
rnhcan electoral Ticket IN November or this tart ~
which p observers ~ intelligence ~ Tho state bear
testimony, there Il the strongest pr1se proof ~ what
Ia known ~ Tho altitude ~ be important eninens snd
w Tho tns hielofj ~ the state, u Ia known That there
thousands ~ itla Democrats Wh0 viii not vote Dr
Cleveland, hui who sll consider Themselves Democrats
aud do nn wish ~ separate themselves ifom their party
and likely to support ita state ticket IN oet"lef
MANY viii vote for Mr. haine IN November n larger
number apparently viii vote for General huller, eonsd
ering him more truly Democratic candidate Than Mr.
Cleveland or the number of such voters u Ia impossi
ble To speak with accuracy, but abundant testimony
proves that II Ia large second thero are the German
Republicans whose interest ~ the temperance question
lead them ~ the Brewers Association advises,
against The leading Republican candidate in the State
election while National questions they will vote in
November for the Republican Presidential ticket Some
indication Of the number of this class OF voters will he
given by the difference between the vote for secretary
OF State and for other Republican candidates. It is
Thousand votes; II we may confidently expect to
fluid the electoral ticket larger than the vote
for eecretary OF State By about that number Third,
Of past elections show that there are thousands
OF Repubcans In Ohio who do not vote ut state e.ec
ticns. In 1876 $4,000 voted for Garfield In No
venber than for the candidate for Secretary Of State In
October; and in 1880 10000 Republicans who did not
all IN October, and 5000 Democrats who voted
the Democratic ticket In October all voted for Garfield
In November The conclusion TO which these facts point
Is that may confidently expect larger vote In No
Blaine by 10000 to 10000, than the vote
cast for Secretary OF State Tuesday. Hence should
the Republican majority Tuesday be large I'm No
will be larger; should 1t be small I'm November
it will he ample shoud there be Democratic majority
less than 10000. majority for Blaine In November may
be confidently expected.
The influence OF this election public opinion iu
other States has been unconsciousy exaggerated
by both parties. There have been times when victory
in OHIO in October would stampede the Democratic force
think grave mistake to expect that result even If
large Republican majority appears In Ohio on Tuesday
The Democrats have sudiousy prepared for defeat in
that State. have told all their followers that they did not
upon Ohio have tins much at least in their
favor that their action in convention deliberately
based upon the calculation that Ohio they had sma
chance Hence IL they fail their followers are
ready to say; We calculated on nothing better" On
the other hand shOu tn. Repubcln be beaten sue
cessiul 10y small majority only. feel assured at the
caused great disJp continent by IT. vote in September
Where Republican apathy. Indifference or
over confidence there would he sudden uprising and
tremendous effort. More RepuDicans have mtelli
gcnce enough e. that with any other than large
Democratic majority in ohio the electoral vote in that
-t.e pretty and would rcdouhe their exertions to
secure enough votes elsewhere The sweep Of the cur
rent. which 50 often carries with u the diitwoOd In
ppcs will have less effect this year than usual first be-
of tine intense personality which the contest has
aroused and sccOnI bcar.e tue voters Of the nOan1
and drifting class have been very largely drawn to the
Democratic party already. Discourage nep expert
ece proves does shake Republican veterans. Con
ndence AMI cement ~ experience proves
never been helpful ~ the Democratic PARTY, nut have |
always betrayed IT nio new acts o. iooiislness.
Turning now to other -tites: Yol aware that the
prospect In Indiana Is exceedingly favorable to the Re
uuulicau4 The temperance question does not disturb
tcm; their ticket is clearly the srnnseri the arin
question helps them Throughout the state; the Repuhl
can detection - Insignia nl the revolt ~ Irish emo-
cnts counis AGAINST that party IN almost every town
Npt there to dOnh ~ Michigan. Past votes
ahpw hni th, Republicans have thrie recorded vote
larger By several thousand than the aegrea'te ever
pHlcd Democratic ani Gprnhnck canliintes The |
rnnvnss IA rNritin the pcnrr are hw ihene to s IN
pitnucei anl il vote wirh would he risi IN asp of
doubt IS The rtupri result should Insure Republican
,eihr "A tlmi FlIn. n thptp IA ani npnprint who |
antuslt etupis sir,nst Ia lilnnis nave vet 90 Hnl
hln Yhuse vhu ral Wisconsin, dHHhhi, wniputpt !
eve iuph thn tus hlsh,t hp state the lafeesi toip
p,ef rniini m that state ufa Democratic e,ndhiiip
wa ul,unn hr ihrh uhlt iil,nin Wrip rHilpi int |
iinpnpti nnt iut npl ht iinmnp ar '"nAt 'sneh twe
lnatl aga and ior nrunotatic, iFahlhnu tfeenh"Hh
and miscellaneous candidates onN ie3onn' willie the
vote fnr tarni WAC 1000 ani The for iiayes
ljun0O Ia he manner past return, shoW clearly ihal
lava Republican ataie with anything hhe a fnll
vote tho result there Is not dolhtmL M intelligent |
Democrat expects success Ia Minnesota Nebraska OF
kansas
The course % events in Pacific states has fully iusti
fled the expectations of those who promised their entire
electoral vote 10 MIR Blaine. Perhaps the best indlca-
on of the movement of public opinion there II given by
organization OF powerful Repu,ican clubs In san
Francisco composed wholly Of former Democrats and /
by the large majority given IN Oregon to the Republican
candidate for Congress this year
Unless the result IN Ohio should show larger Demo
cratic majority than any expects therefore. il
reasonable to count upon the electoral vote or all
Northern States of pennsy for Mr. Blaine II
upon this calculation that he was nominated. and
rohing IN the present state facts leads different
e. pectaton. IL remains therefore, II the Democrats
have Solid South 10 show where they can hope 10 get
iortyeght from Northern States OF
the Ohio line. There Is no doubt about any New
England State Maine proved beyond question that op-
position that section far weaker than had been ex-
peced Its strength in Massachusetts, and in COnnect
cut is greatly oyerbaanced by the outbreak of Demo-
cratic voters who refuse TO support Mr.. Cleveland. IT,
thetefore New-York and ew-Jersey should both vote
for Mr. Cleveland, he would still Lack three elect'ra
votes But the possibility that these might be secured In
some the smaller States renders it important to con-
slider whether the Democratic candidate count upon
the solid southern vote.
For oue do not believe that he can. We shall hear
from West Virginia Wednesday. though in that State
as Ohio greater degree there is reason 10 believe
that the Republican electoral ticket will be than
the ticket. Putting that State aside. there are
several others III whicn the Republican chances OF sue
cess to-day appear tho best Certain II Is that the Re
publican ticket cannot be defeated except by fraud. In
Inni.i nr nj