The semi-weekly miner. [volume] (Butte, Mont.) 1882-1886, 1884-05-14
BLAINE'S CHANCES.

It cannot now be doubted that Nj
Blaine will 60 to the Chicago Con
vention in the lead of every othe
Presidential candidate. But will b
Oe nominated? is the question aske'
by all. Taking the estimate of hi
friends he will have 1873 votes, o
only 30 less than the number neces
sary to nominate. Nearly all thes'
delegates are from undeniable Repub
lican States. But for all this, will ht
be nominated? Let us zee The ma
jority of the delegates will insist up
on the nominee being a man that has
a reasonable prospect for carrying
New York, New Jersey, Connecticut
and Ohio, whose electoral votes will
decide the battle to be fought in No
vember next. Allowing that any
Republican has q fighting chance in
New York, Blaine is not the man to
lead the forlorn hope. The Empire
State. under ordinary circumstances,
8 safely Democratic from 15,000to
$1,000. If Mr. Blaine is nominated
forces will be set at work that will
make the Democratic majority double
or treble these figures. The business
men of the State, the bankers and
merchants who are opposed to any
upheaval Or decided change in the
financial or foreign policy of the gov.
eminent, will contribute to this end.
The Independent voters, not only in
New York, but in the other States
named, will array themselves solidly
against the man from Maine, and
even Roscoe Conkling, the wounded,
bat still dangerous lion, would emerge
from his retirement to take part in
the fight against his hated adversary.
MI. Blaine's friends talk childishly
about Mr.. Coakling having for
his troubles with the Garfield
cabinet, and being ready to help
boost the ex-premier into the Presi-
1t is all idle gable and
wholly unwarranted. Nj. Conk~
makes no secret of telling his
intimate friends that ha still has
some political accounts to square,
and that among them Is one to
James G. Blaine is a party.
All this and more will be brought
out in the debates which will precede
The nominating of a candidate, and
will have It's full effect in determin>
ng the result.
The history of Republican con-.
7entiOns will show that it ia not
the leading man that is
elected. Mr.. Seward was in the
'ery fore front in 1880, but he was
not chosen because his party
doubted his ability to carry some of
he close States. In 1868 the Repub-
leans snatched victory from defeat
y shelly ing their prominent csndl-
ates for the presidency, and
up General Grant,
man who had never voted a
ticket up to that time.
Blaine was the strongest man, in ,
lumber of delegates, before the con- ;
of 1875, but he was beaten by ,
[ayes. The same thing occurred in ,
$50, when the prize was awarded to a.,
arfield, after Grant had led the bali .
ting for two days. 4
Taking the lessons of the past as a +
aide the prospects for MI. Blaine's i
lccess at Chicago, appear very slim. :
be chances seem to be in favor of :,
me of the men further. down the ;,
It. OF these Hawley is a foe not to h
despised. and in certain contingen :,
is sure to be nominated. Gresh- 4
o and Lincoln. though not credited r
lth many votes, will develop ~
'ength as the fight proceeds, and =,
ould the efforts of the Arthur and -,
lmunds men to make a IDEAL" fail,
Q forces of the administration will
turned over to one or the other.
le Blaine delegates have no second y.
dice, and this is an element of -,
'akness, They occupy the same po- -
ion that the 1906" did in 1880, and r.,
e them will probably die in the last -.
oh. -: