National Republican., 1884-10-31

flict RACES all along the line. tho central
point Of interest Is undoubtedly the state
of New York. Either party gaming her
thirty-six electoral votes could afford to
lose elsewhere, though this is moro partcu.
larly applicable to the republicans, for
they can elect without New York, but
the democrats cannot.
In the presidential campaign Of 1880
the state cast 1,104,6l5 votes, of which
Garfield received 555,5i4, Hancock 53i,-
oil, Weaver 1898, and p,177 were scat.
teriug. This year, in oil probability, the
vote polled in the Empire State will not
vary greatly from 1,25O,0OO. If the in
crease were divided upon the lines of
1850 the republican vote would approxi-
mntely be 5000 and the democratic vote
100000. But there will be deductions
from both parties that will largely cut
into these theoretical totals Tke repub-
licans will lose through theyprohibition
vote aud the boiling independent repub.
lican vote; while, on the/othef hand, the
democrats will lose through the Butler
vote and tho revolty6f the Irish and the
democratic orkingmen. The extent to
which these eleYents will counterbalance
each other constitutes the determining
factor between Blaine and Cleveland in
New York
The Independent republicans claim
s5.000 votes and the prohibitionists
$4,000. OF the prohibitionists 10000 arc
sGs down as republicans. Consequently,
taking the claims Of these factions at their
face, the net loss TO the republicans on
their showing is 125,OO0--quite q serious
depletion. If correct. On the other side,
the Butterflies claim 100000 votes in the
state, three-fourths drawn from de-
democratic workingmen's votes that will
be cast for Blaine are pnt by their en-
thusiasts at 5000. Obviously, If all
these claims were borne out by the facts,
the republican falling Off would be
112,5OO and the democratic loss 197, 800,
leaving the republicans over 5000 in
advance Of the democrats.
But such estimates simply serve to
show the folly into which the rush and
excitement Of such campaign Us this
leads men. Experience shows that third
parties have their best opportunities In
"off years" In presidential years there
is no room for them. They are caught
between the two great parties like grain
between the millstones and ground into
nothingness. Many men, cherishing va
rious forms of grievances and discontents,
think in the early stages of the conflict
that they will act with the minor offshoot
parties, but they do not. In the tremen-
dous heat and energy of the closing days
OF the conflict they are irrosistibly drawn
by the magnetism of the greater parties,
and, almost before they know it, find
themselves marching under the old ban
ners, imbued with the old feelings, and
shouting the old party war cries. 1t has
always been SO in past campaigns, and so
it will be in this. Tho leaders of the
outside movements will certainly have
following, but before the test of the ballot
box their thousands upon paper will
dwindle into scant hundreds in reality.
Looking at the situation soberly, strk-
ing fair balance between the opposing
claims of tho rival parties, and trying to
solve as impartially as may be possible
tho problem Of estimating how 1,e5O,OoO
men will vote, THE NATIONAL REpuBLI-
CAN Is Of the opinion that the democratic
percentage Of loss will be greater than
that which the republicans will suffer,
and that Mr.. Blaine's plurality will be
greater than Garfeld's.
The prohibition vote will undoubtedly
be mainly drawn from the republican
party, and the Cleveland republican vote
wholly 80. But there is no good evidence
that st. John will poll to exceed $4,000
votes in the state, and the opinion ofex-
perienced politicians who have given the
movement special study is that 1t will not
reach that figure. Outside of the ques-
tion Of prohibition, the sympathies of the
men who have thought of voting for st.
John are mainly with the republican
party, and the influences spoken of above
have very perooptibly reduced the prohi.
bition strength all over the state. IT.
however, the vote for ST. John reaches
$4,000 1t may be set down in advance that
not over 1000 of the number will be
drawn from the democratic party. This
ofisetting 1000 Of the votes drawn from
the republicans leaves u net repu blican
loss of 1000.
The measureof - lean loss through
the independent republican bolt is simply
thn ntai nj, ,T,,h NJ
Bcecher, Curtis, aud the other leaders in
the movement will be able to draw
after them. Their claim that this fol-
lowing numbers $1,000 is plainly absurd.
This would amount to saying that nearly
ono out of every seven republicans in the
state had deserted his party this year.
The republican canvass has shown con-
clusively that at no place is the indie
pendent detection foI idabe 30 far as the
interior counties are concerned. In many
counties, in fact, there are no independ-
ent republicans. Their greatest strength
is In the city of New York. If the indie
pondents really had anything approxi-
mating the strength claimed, their innu-
enco would be perceptible in all the
counties, but all testimony goes to provo
that they are able TO make respectable
showing at very few points In the state.
No ono will bo able to say what they
really number for tho reason that their
vote will be merged into and returned as
part of the demoeratio total. but If 49,.
900 does not LARGELY ontnumber them all
indications arc deceptive. II, however,
it is put at 10000, to be generous, the net
republican detection due to this faction
aud tho prohIbitionists wonld be $1,000
On the other SIDE, Butler will certainly