Savannah morning news. [volume] (Savannah) 1868-1887, 1884-07-27
PRESIDENTIAL CHANCES.
What the Shrewder Politicians ThInl
of the Strength of the Candidates.


WASHINGTON, July 26.-The shrewder
politicians here do not think it too soon
to calculate the relative chances of Blaine
and Cleveland in the pending contest. All
the factors in the problem are pretty we'll
defined, and it is possible to combine them
so as to give an answer which will be
approximately correct. The effect of the
Republican nominations upon the people
in almost every corner of the country is
now well known. The effect of the re-
markably weak letters written by those
candidates in acceptance of their nomi-
4 atiOns is also well known. Everybody
uA derstands that the nomination of Blaine
arc, used little enthusiasm compared
with that which his managers con-
fdenA y hoped to see. Everybody
undeTs. tands that his long, evasive, tenta-
tive lett 9r fell on the enthusiasm which
had been created with a dull, sickening
thJld. EN rerybody understands that Lo-
gan's wesa4 Sness as candidate is so we'll
knowa to- Il ltelligent people that his letter
of aecepta,sA ce was unnecessary as proof
of it. Thep, again, everybody knows how
Cleyeland's a Omination was received, and
everybody fee Is sure that his letter Of ac-
ceptanee WIZ increase rather than di-
minish the fayt Table. effect which it pro-
duced.
TIS N BE EXPECTED
that the Blaf ne managers Will use
some Of the none, they are now begging
so assiduogslV in stirring up what thev
will call enthusi&A m for the Republican !
ticket Brass band and tOrchllghts will /
be used in this aS in every other cam
paign. But candsd ates are elected by
votes, and it does no, appear that these |
taWdry means will gn We Blaine and Logan |
a majority of the elect oral college. Cleve-
lands prospects are no dependent upon /
any such tom-t0m tacti cs. 1t is now rea--
sonably certain-so Ger, tain that well-in-
formed Republican pOlit clans admit it I
that Cleveland will have the sup
port of the Tamn lany Demo- /
Gratis, with few ex ceptions, in |
New York, and of the Butt er Democrats,
with few exceptions, in II assachusetts.
The claims that the IreshI nen and that
the Roman Catholics Will oppose him,
never well founded, are graz lually being
In other words, it is under
stood by we'll informed men of / 10Th parties
here that Cleveland will have almost the
solid support of the DemOcra tic party
everywhere. The "almOst" covers a very
few thousand votes. 1t seems equally
certain to well informed men that CleYe-
land Will get large majority of the votes
not cast for Blaine, with the exception of
those cast by the Prohibitionists.
THIS Is A YEAR
in which people are going to vote. Cleve-
land will get the German vote as we'll as
the great majority of the Roman Catholic
vote, and the Irish vote 80 far as those are
defined. He will benefit indirectly by the |
prohibition movement, Blaine's anxiety
lest this might cost the Republicans
Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin and other West {
ern States, where the temperance ques-
tiOn is powerful two-edged sword, is
shown by the attempt of Commissioner of {
Pensions Dudley, and Commissioner of
Indian Affairs Price, to induce the Pro- {
at Pittsburg this week not
to nominate a separate ticket but to in l
dorse Blaine's nomination. This attempt
was, however, a most fatuOus and foolish
one, for its only result was to rank Blaine :
at his own suggestion, for Dudley and
Price acted under his immediate direction
with the extremists on the temperance
question. If there was any doubt as to
his position on this question it must now
be dissipated. Blaine need not expect the !
vote of any anti-Prohibitionist On the
other hand, he cannot expect the votes of
the PrOhibitiOnists because they will be 7
cast for their own candidate. Right here
we must add to CleVeland's strength the
votes of the Independents and of the In ]
dependent Republicans-two very differ j
ent classes.
THESE MAKE UP THE UNCERTAIN FACTOR.
The unknown quantity is the problem,
'EYOu can always tell how the partisans
will VOTE" said Republican partisan
to-day, Ebut you can't tell what those
ID fellows with conseiences will do"
OF course everybody understands that
the Independent movement is practically
unorganiZed. For every man who pub
licly announces that he will bolt
the Republican nomination this year,
or that being an Independent he
proposes to cast his vote for Cleve-
land, there are ten who will do just the
same without saying anything publicly |
about it. But this movement is uncer-
tain only as to numbers. 1t will throw
all its votes to Cleveland, and they will
be more than any one supposes-but just
how many no one knows. Finally, you
must remember that the Republican par I
tY, having neither Wall street nor the star
route contractors to draw upon this year,
and having deserted the men who gave
most of the money which it has used in
New England, will be rubbing along
on the rocks all through the cam
paign. Is it surprising that cool
headed, well-balanced, well informed
who, of course, cannot afford
to express their real opinions publicly,
are willing to admit privately that they
do not see how ''Blaine can pull through"
For my part l do not see how he will be
able to crawl out from under the adverse
majorities which will be piled upon him.