The Vancouver independent. (Vancouver, W.T. [Wash.]) 1875-1910, 1884-02-28
THE FASTEST POSSIBLE
TROTTER.

HOW FAST HORSES WILL ULTIMATELY
TRoT, AND WHEN THE MAXIMUM WILL
BE REACHED.
New York Sun.
How fast will the fastest possible
trotter go? What is the highest speed
that can ever be attained by the Ameri-
can trottilg horse for distance of one
mile?
These are questions which two we'll
known scientific men, Prof. William H.
Brew err, of Conr ecticut, and Mr.. Fran
els Z. Nipher, of Missouri, have lately
endeavored to answer in three papers
contributed to The American Journal of
Science. The first of these articles,
by Prof. Brewer, appeared in April.
The contributions of Mr.. Nipher are
published in the numbers for July and
August
Prof Brewer publishes table show
ing the number of trotting horses
which have attained or surpassed vari-
Gus rates of speed ranging from 2 30
to = Eli for series of years extending
from lS43 to 1892 From this table it
appears that in 1858 there was only one
horse that had trotted a mile in 2 80 or
better; in 1858 the number had in
creased to IA; in 1868 to SO; in 1873 to
&c., in 1882 to 1854. The table also
shows that up to 1882, 495 horses had
trotted mile in 2 % or better; 275 in
= % or better; 156 in 2:21 or better;
60 in 2 10 or better; Is in 2:17 or bet
ter, and in 2:15 or better. Il leave
it to mathematician, said Prof. Brewer
in reference to this table. ''to plot the
curves which Immediately suggest
themselves to determine how fast
horses will ultimately trot and when
this maximum will be reached"
Mr.. Nipher has undertaken the task
thus suggested. His first conclusion,
as stated in the July number of The
American journal of Science, was that
the maximum speed to which the Amer
lean trotting horse will constantly APP
proximate. but never reach, is one mile
in 90 seconds, or l 80. He also con-
cludes that the time of the trotting
horse will be reduced to within one
second of this figure in $50 years after
the year 1860, that is to say, in the year
of our Lord 1920. Mr.. Nipher does
not claim absolute precision for his re-
suits, and saws that the maximum speed
may possibly be as great as 100 seconds.
In the course of ten years, however,
he thinks the limit can be fixed with
accuracy, and he is quite sure that
eventually the maximum speed Of
trotting and running horses will differ
only by few seconds.
In his last article Mr.. Nipher states
that he has made new calculation by
mathematical instead of graphical
methods, and has thus obtained 81 Sec
onds instead of SO seconds as the most
probable figures for the minimum time
of trotting a mile. The probable error
of this value, he says, is not over four
seconds, and it is not likely that the
running horse will cut his record down
by five seconds, so that it is probable
the trotter will finally surpass the run
ming horse.
If this prediction is verified, the in
habitants of the United States in the
twenty-third century will have horses
that can get over the ground by. means
of an artificial gait faster than by a
natural gait Ne believe that all
writer's agree that running is natural to
horses, while fast trotting is not. Mr..
Nipher states, however. as a well known
fact that some herds of wild horses on
the plains were natural PAGERS, so fast
and steady that they nearly all pre-
served their pacing gait even when pur-
sued by the best running horses. He
speaks of one large white Texan PAGER
that never could be caught.