New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1884-08-23

,,'..,., ,rne leaders of the party have sails
fled Themselves that the fegis'ri'7 ms year WIZ
orla,lv fncr ase the Pnrneli" strength we ihhf'l
tbink fate IL for granted thai the wing pafiy o. ID
ia N led will disappear rom ih' lfl'n i'p' VIM
,,' -, ,he cl,.e of the coming elections According
10 nll the calculations $50 shall gct possession 81
tlc snats nov held by the nominal Homo Rulers
,,J ,,, s,,l, or ncarly al Of thrm, NOW held ~
,. ,Vba, |pt this ia not all We shall ced1iDlY
=, If, s,,c u,t many indeed. bat Some. oi the seats
nov held by Tories We count on planting T'I-
pcllito hers and there IN Ulster. IW" "i 10" h'''
advanced and conspicuous OF mat party are repre-
| .cntatiycs Of Ulster constituencies already MI
Ifeaty and Mr. Bggar; and We nf" certain =" adh 10
the number 1T the coming elections Ulster hh
proyiuce IN which tho rights OF the tenant are h'd
c.pr,ially dear The great source of listers pros
nerity and tranquility has bceen us exceptional
! system of tenant rSht-and the Ulster Farmers
/ Epow that in Mr. Parnelis party they have the
6r,ost advocates Of all the rights of the tenants.
| Moreover the Catholic population is Increasing
everv dav in the northern cities and towns, and tho
proyince of Ulster once distinctively Protestant
! and Orange. will soon have majority OF its p0pn-
! lation Catholic The change has gone Tar enough
even already to give MS good reason to reckon OH
making some addition TO our strength in the repre-
sentation of Ulster when the Government give us
chance that way by dlssoving Parliament and going
| to the country.
TWENTY-FIVE seats assume that we shall win
from the nominal Home Rulers. This assumption
leaves two or three of the class the better and moro
| popular among them, still In possession of their
seats; an assumption which is not likely to be borne
out bv thc results: but am anxious not to overrate
| our probable successes. i feel confident that we
shall carry eight or ten Wing seats Let us say
eight Suppose only get two Conservative seats
in Ulster: that will bring the number OF our con-
4, int t,,-p huxa only cd
ParnclTs present party at forty-twO for'ythrec
bccausc there are some few men who for orc cause
| or another do not now attend Parliament ut ALL
These men. however would be succeeded at the
general election by men who would attend; for the
seat, they occupy are absolutely at our disposal.
ict us then assume the additions Of this kind to
the active strength of the P1rnell party. THO
whole result would be on tins calculation an adj
dlton Of thirty-four Iawclltcs TO iorty-tWO; or
scvcuty-siX in all. have uudcrstated rather than
ovcrstatcd our expectations. and wherever saw
any reasonable doubt Of success ! have not
counted ON success We have had lately very good
means Of testing orr strength for we have had
several uurspcctcl elections and in almost every
instance where we tried Wc won may say that nm
every instance where tried and where there WAS
auy possibility of oar succeeding We did succeed
We tried one or two impossible places merely for
thc sake Of making beginning and showing q de-
termination to fight; hut of course We dio not sue
coed; We know wc could not succeed. We ana
| succeed however. IN some contests where more 'ul
ourselves believed thcIc was the srtc-t chance of
our Succeeding PJotJccouuts for much in political
contests. our opponents now begin to believe that
| $50 ba,c got into the Vay OF winning and they arc
NOT always I'm good spirits for fight We appear To
Lay, secured possession ul tiir " WIngloH victory
line victory winch having settled on one side OF th"
] field cannot uut forth wings and ily away again.
All these calculations assum, the general election
Nv bc f. elt ont ou the ba4is Of the present fran
! cl'sc ~ yo1r readers know, MI G.Hdsioucs Ir-
! cont Trlnrl.c bin proposed 10 c,tcnd the suffrage
very widely; to make il in ia't something very Ih'
10 manhood suffrage I'm Ireland tho number Of
! y.t.r. ,,ou,d ho immensely increased The House
| Of lords La. -thmIy thrown out tho bill, and Mr.
| Gladstone intends ~ hold au autumn session col
! Parliament for the purpose of sending his message
M f tho Peers again " they should once NOR" re
icct II the piob4bihy is that Doe would ~ once 'ls
| sol W. Parliament and go to thr country WIN thr
very oHcciy" g., 81 REF nm t" House oi I"ld'.'
Tho elections would ~ course, ~ tu'i 'H9o h' f"n
duocd ON the basis of thc pro7"ut franchise. I1-
deed. think wo may safely assume thh "n1i''r
Lnptcns ilio general election vlIl tutc place b'"tn
! the messing of The mio dol mor1fo' Of "'"tm
WHOM lD. mc Isutre OF reform afo nI"r'c nnI nr.
complIslIo sos nInll 600 % rrlt chn.o iu the
! po,it,ni .olI.,utit'ou of un' corpiuca,
change thr o4'clt and urluco VI which m England
wc can gucts ai only hy the mrrcii conjecture IT,
ENGLAND $50 do not know whether iH hlat elects
viii bee extremely rdical'or c,tromcY cou,rr'n-
tive Imt do not thua there any such element
of doubt a4 regards Ireland John Bright once said
of his birmingham constituency that just as wh'r.
| ever you dip % cup ina tA3 ga you bring up salt
water $50 wherever ybu dip into birmingham Jon
bring mp radicasu. After The edme fashion think
that wherever you div into nm IRISH population now
You bring up that form of Nationalsm which iercpre-
scnfcd by Mr. Iarn'll. Many English politicians
| and journalists are constantly telling That the
| extension of the franchise 10 the Irish agricultural
laborcr will bring up new class of voters who iot
some reason or another will be hostile to Mr.. Par
nell do not know from What depths of tnelr
moral consciousness they evo. q th, idea; but IL
must be from their moral consciousness somewhere.
The Irish agricultural laporers make up the bulk of
| the monster meetings which Mr. parucll and his
colleagues hold IN all parts OF Ireland. never met
or heard of nm Irish nborer who was not an admrer
of Mr parnell. There is no Irish lab0ror who does
not know very well that Mr.. parncll and his party
in and on, of Parliament the best friends he can
have. It soothes and pcascs the English public
somehow e. be told every day that Mr. Parclis
power i to come to an end next day. few years
ago the nominal Home Rulers were going to destroy
| him and his party altogether Then Mr. forster
was 10 smash him A little later the Vatican was TO
make n clean sweep Of him. Now the English press
puts II, faith I'm the laborcrs to do the works. II
any one ever heard Irish laborer say word
against Mr. Parnell.
However the effects Of the intended changes IN
the franchise ARE to be settled 10y tho future. For
! tho present we hlvo 10 deal with the urrcformcd
electoral system. and l have based my calculation
on he we'll founded assumption That the next cleo
ton will be decided 10y the same constituencies az
the last. ON that understanding do not believe
chat any one acquainted with the actual condition