New-York tribune., 1884-10-15

| suce.ss la New York would he necessary tn the
| Democrats, All soliA ot nltompia nave poeh
| mado during the onnynAs to nHnlo OUT r"Ha'p'o
mnlorlty Tor Cleveland without the vote o'
| New. York. Such attempts, however nave II"
80 completely failed that the Democrats nave
been driven to claim this state whether or no.
and hence have put forth, to encourage thcif
followers. most ridiculous statements IA to the
number Of Independent votes to he cNpcctou
for Cleveland. II is now time to consider the
siunton in York somewhat cnlciully.
Within tho past two weeks information hnS
been received from every part of the state upon
which a Inst estimate can be bnScd.
Tho Republican party, outside the cities OF
New York aud Brooklyn, has shown more ZEAL
moic energy, and more united feeling thnn N
any previous election. The people are thor
oulhly reused. Meetings even iii small coun-
try towns. are largely attended. The abuse OF
Mr.. Blaine has only served Ia kindlr Il puOiic"h
indignation. The numerous accossons have IN
cludcd many Democrats ol local influence, ana
have everywhere encouraged the party greatly.
II is beyond question safe to say that the hc-
puhlicans are stronger in this state. outside the
two great cities. than they ever have been be-
fore For every Republican vote that may be-
east AGAINST Mr. Blaine, there viii be more than
one Democratic vote east against Mr. Cleyc
land If any Democrat doubts this. he shows
that he has not been willing to open his eyes to
the facts Undoubtedly there was az one time
a considerable number of Republicans VINO were
dissatisfied. Lists were quickly made ~ these
their number was cast up, and nom ihat time 10
this the Democrats ana Dependents have been
counting on this force. though it has been con
slantly fading away. Scarcely town can be
named, in which there were any dissatisfied ke-
pubiica.s m any lime where the number OF
them has not vi~bly and materially diminished
within the past few weeks.
Outside the two cities the Republican vote for
Gcncral Garfield was i22, ,oGl. against $50. lJl
for Hancock 1l.2jG Tor Weaver, and l,IN2
for Dow. Thus the Republicans had outside
the two cities. plurality of 900. 1t "a prob
able that the Grccnback vote will be larger than
II 900. but the excess will be drawn almost
wholly from the Democratic side. 1t is also
probable that the Prohibition vote will be- larger
ihnn 500. aud the excess will be- drawn
mainly from the Republican side. l}nt We
venture the prediction that the Democrats will
lose more outside the two great citcs by Yates
Tor Butler than the Republicans will losc by
votes for 81. John. In isTG the votes outside
the two cities showed Il Republican plurality ui
10000. The increase ui vote from 1875 ~
1890 went wholly tu the Republicans There
Il no icasun tu suppose that the nrrcnsc during
the past fuui lpnis has given the Democratic
part, m, advantage outside of the two ritirs
There IA nn fphsnn io expert that the llrpubli-
cnns will hp found weaker than they wrtp ioui
yeats ago,
Coming now io Newi ioih aud lhooLi,n, We
hni that hosn ciira gave Ip,noo plurality a.,
iiden, aud 90 400 ni Hancock There IN
not an Intelligent Democrat IA either city who
expects ini hla party majority "a large ~
Hancock had four years aga, An elaborate fe-
view IN The Htrdid oi Monday morning esti-
mated the Republican vote IN this city al
40, 900, of which it assumed 20. 900 would be
cast for Cleveland. On this basis nearly the
whole of the probable increase during the past
four years is given to the Republicans. Were
these figures correct, it would follow that Gov
ernor Cleveland would hardly get any plurality
in this city whatever. The number of Demo-
cratic voters from the Tammany organization,
and others, who will vote for Mr. Blaine. will
be found at least rs large as the number of Re
pubicans who will vote against him. II he re-
~,
HeralTs computation, only 900 for Cleve-
land aud Butler. 1t is unnecessary to saw that
The HcrdIds estimate is supremacy foolish
But the Republicans have reason to believe
that of a probable increase of 40, 900 in the
total vote, they will gain, on account of the
antagonsm. of the working people to free trade,
at least 25,000. This would bring their total
vote to l05,00O and to this they will add as
many Democratic votes for Blaine as there will
be Republican votes cast against him On the
other hand. there are left l36, 900 votes TO be
divided between the other candidates. and of
these Governor Cleveland will be fortunate il
he gets enough to give him any plurality.
In Brooklyn the increase for years has been
steadily in favor of the Republicans. They
gained 10000 from 1876 to 1880, while the
Democrats gained $500. Assuming that the
increase during the past four years has been
1900. there is reason to expect that enough
of it will go to the Republican ticket to cut
down the plurality gwen for Hancock in
Brooklyn four years ago.
On the basis of these figures, II will be seen
that IA Democratic plurality of 10000 in New
York and Brooklyn seems literally mpossiblc
Yet against it there is every reason to expect
Republican, plurality outside Oi the two cities.
if proper work is done during the next few
weeks. of more than 10000. Victory is within