The Portland daily press., 1884-10-29
The Outlook.

There are earnest and honest men of both
the great parties who expect their side to
win in the election oil Tuesday. They
advance plausible reasons for the judgment
that they will carry every doubtful State.
The reason why there is such wide DIFF
ference OF opinion among men who have no
wish to be deceived is very plain. The con-
dltions OF the contest are such that there is
in almost every Stale, which the Republi-
cans can hope to carry-Malne perhaps be-
ing an exception-an uncertain vote which
is much larger than usual. The party man
ayers do not know how this vote will be
cast. They have been unable to count it in
their canvasses. There are reasons which
doubtless seem convincing why each party
may justly claim it, or the major part OF it,
and it is claimed by each, and each by claim
ing il is able to figure out victory which
could not be done il this uncertain element
were conceded to be hostile.
In Indiana, for example, both parties have
made their canvass and each fees certain Of
victory; but there are about 20, 900, perhaps
more,yoters who are classed as doubtful How
will they vote, or how will they DIVIDE? 1t
is the existence of this uncalcuabe element,
the action of which can only be guessed, or
predicted inferentially, that battles the party
statisti In New York the number of
these, if not their proportion to the whole
vote. is much larger, aud in every State the
same condition holds. The Republicans
count with confidence on carrying the Slate
but Democrats and Independents laugh at
their confidence as prepostrrous. In Massa-
chusetts the Republican State Committee
count upon plurality of $4,000 or $4,000
fl, Blaine aud Logar but there are many
well Informed politicians opposed TO these
candidates who thiuk such pretensions are
ridiculous, and some sargnine ones believe
in the possibility of plurality for Cleveland
and Hendricks, which appears to be the ex-
travagauce of folly.
All these things show that unknown con-
diiions ale potent factors in this election,
aid that all predictions are more or less
guesses in which the personal prediction of
the individual guessing is apt to be lbfuen-
tiaL. This is in our favor,-that whatever
e'ections have been held in the Northern
states have justified the anticipations of the
Republicans rather than those of their op-
pom nts, and IL has long been remarked by
those who take mute of such things that el, c.
tions show that Republican politicians have
SUI er knowledge of the currents of public
sentiment than Democrat politicians, aud
are safer prophets.
But 1t must be remembered that none of
the elections yet held can be considered a
sure indication of the judgment of the peo
pie upon the issues of personal character
and qualification which have had so large a
share OF consideration in the campaign.
What we mean is that the question of Gov
erDor Cleveland's morality, Tor example, did
not much affect the votes Of the people of
Ohio when choosing member of the State
board of public works or members of Con-
gress. The Independent Republicans of
Massachusetts, will, it is reported, present
ticket at the polls containing the names of
the Democratic electors with the Republi-
can nominees for State officers. Now it is
impossible to judge with certainty from the
elections which have been held how much
effect the discussion of the personal charac-
ter of the nominees may have on the vote
for President. The chances are that it will
have less influence than the persons who
have allowed such considerations to control
their own judgment imagine; but neverthe-
less that is one of the iucalculable elements
of the problem.
For these reasons we are persuaded that
nobody knows with any other certainty than
that which is based upon faith what the is
sue of the election will be. In the nature
of the csse the canvasses had are only val
liable as indications and cannot be decisive.
The most valuable evidence that the Demo-
cratic managers do moi really expect to sue
ceed is the address their National Commit
tee has issued this week. That reads like
give-away, and, as we said yesterday, will
encourage Republicans every where If they
had a secure confidence OF victory they
never would have put forth such a docu-
ment. The Republican hope is in the intel
ligent judgment of the citizens of the Re-
public, which they do not believe to be
ready to commit the affairs of the nation to
the Democratic party whose principles, 90
far as they are defined and illustrated by
its performances. are unsafe, and SO far as
they are Indefinite and uncertain are threat
ening to the great Interests which depend
upon a stable, conservative aud enlightened