Port Tobacco times, and Charles County advertiser. (Port Tobacco, Md.) 1845-1898, 1884-07-25
4 rithmetic of the New York Situation

As New York is conceded to be the
pivotal State in the Presidential contest,
much speculation is ind llsed in Wi h re-
gard to the probable result in that State.
1t is seen upon examination that Govern
or Cleveland's phenomenal majority OF
two years ago does not give as perfect as
surance of victory to the Democrats this
fall as might have been supposed. Ii has
been discovered that, though having a
majority of 1913, 900 votes. he did not get
as many votes as Garfield in 1880 by 20,
900. and received only about 500 mo'e
than Hancock. Some hasiy losicians and
arithmeticians have seized upon this fact
as showing conclusively that Blaine Will
carry New York. These prophets are mt
entitled to much consideration. but i
glance at the figures in recent past cleo
tions in the Empire Safe, in connec ion
with the character OF The present openly
hostile influences to Blaine and possible
antagonisms to Cleveland may throw some
light upon the question.
In 1850 Garfield received in the State OF
New York 555,5i4 votes and Hancock
534, 51l votes. In 1882 Judge Folger. Re
publican candidate for Governor. received
342 AGA votes and Gov Cleveland received
545,3lS Thus it vi | be seen that while
Gov. Cleveland received 20,226 votes less
than Garfield presidential vote-Folger
the Republican candidate, AT the same
field. So hat nothing is gained by com
parison with the Garfield vote or. if there
be. the gain is in Cleveland's favor. Il is
easily understood how Cleveland's vote
fell short of Gurfield's In The first place
the vote is never as full at gubernatnrial,
as At a presidential election; and, in the
second place, it was SO well known on the
day Of the election that Foyer was over
wheIming'y bea'en that many Demrcra' :
ola NOT 90 10 Tue 20 Is
The fact that Cleveland did receive the
active support in the shape OF the votes OF
a large number OF Republicans. in addi-
ton To he tact support 10y the abstentiou
from voting of a graf many Others, is
proved by the figures of the election OF
1888. In that year Chaplin, the highest
Democratic candidate. ran nearly 10000
behind Cleveland's vote Of the year pre-
vious, while Davenport, the lowest Eepub-
lican candidate, exceeded F2lger's vote 10y
1000.
From these figures il becomes clear that
il the same influences that supported Mr..
Cleveland aud antagonized Judge Folger
in 1882, should now support him an. an
tagonise Blaine, or any considerable por-
tion of it, that Cleveland will carry the
State 10y an overwhelming majority, re-
gardless of any detection that may come
from Tammanv. But the New York Sun.
which has been inclined to sulk in its tent
since the nomination of Cleveland, which
it vigorously opposed, says that he inhu.
ence which antagonized Folger was The
mourners and friends of the lamented
Garfield" und that this same influence it
was that triumphed in The nomination OF
Blaine
1t says the influence that il now ant4s-
onizing Blaine is the tree trade wing of
the Republican party au entirely different
influence of unknown strength; though
the Sun e'uctantly admits that al the
chances are in Cleveland's favor.
While the facts advanced by the Sun are
to some extent true, they are not correct to
the extent the Sun would have us believe
The civil service reform element of The Re-
publican party was a large and respectful e
element in the opposition to Folger in 80
strength and redoubled zeal, is now op-
posing Blaine. Now the election of 1888
when the ''mourners and friends of the ia
mented Garfield" could have had no uni
ted position, showed an average Democrat
ic majority of some $4,000 votes in the
State
Let US augment this majority by the in
fluence of the free trade and civil service
reform Republicans. the several prominent
New York Republican dailies and those
"pictorial papers" whose influence the
'Plumed knight" so greatly feared, and
the nearly 10000 Republican votes which
Gov. Cleveland apparently received i. 80,
and it ould seem that New York is rea-
sonably safe, regardless of Mr. Kelley's OPP
position which is at present more than
doubtful
Tilden carried the State in 1876 over
Kelley's Hostility and compact Republi-
can organization by 10000 majority. In
1880 Kelley protested to be friendly 10
Hancock whose nomination lie had advo-
Gated, and yet witness the result. Now
that Kelly is made an open enemy by the
wisdom of the convention at Chicag ), his
power to sell out the Democratic ticket,
as he was accused of doing in 1870 will be
des' royed. 1t seems that Kelly recognizes
this and he will probably sulkily take his
place in the line in due time. We can see
no possible reason why Cleveland should
not carry New York by large majority.