New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1884-08-23
THE IRISH QUESTION.
by JUgTfN MCCARTHY. ~ p
Ill
PROSPECTS FOR IRELAND ~ TIE NEXT
GENERAL ELECTIONS.


universal belief here Ia that II the elections tak'
nIocs within the next twelve months mud they can
hardly be- DELAYED beyond that time. the ifl'h ~
to,ai marty will become seventy or eighty ih7''l'
~ fortv Ibntc spoLeu Of o twclycmOnth bni inc
rcsnr ,yonld be inst the Same. suppose. oven u
fhr ure,ant Parliament were allowed 10 run ON ~
f,ll time and the elections did not tax" place NV"
fine autumn of 1886. Ia political life OF course one
n,nst take into full account the possibilities oi
change in public opinion OF leader fISlhR ana ~"
inc; of National forces seeking new dr'ctoh VI
reactions; Of all manner of Influences dlSpIacins
and disturbing onr conditions and cal'uh'lohS'
therefore assume IT 10 DE among the possibilities
that within the course of . few years the st''e "l
things and parties in Ireland might be very diI'i
from what II is at present. and that ths popu'hiS
of Mr. Parnell and his party in 1854 Is no certain
guarantee for their popularity for the very exist
ence of suoh party. in 1890 My calculations
have reference therefore only TO the coming elec-
tions: do not regard it "a in the slightest degree
probable that anything will happen to disturb them
Ireland has one hundred and three rcpreso
tiyes in tho House of Commons OF these only
copnt forty-two or forty-three as followers
Of Mr.. Parnen l only reckon as his
followers those who sit on the same
benches with him. who attend the meetings OF MS
marty and acknowledge themselves bound by inc
decisions of its majority. There are some three OF
four men who habtually md almost nvaIlapF
vote with the Parnell party, but who nevertheless
do not acknoW ledge themselves bound to common
action with IT, and these 40 not take account o.
IN my estimate of the party's present strength
II nav then be thought somewhat audaclons 10 as
s.,n,a that the Irish party will find its numbers
nearly double at the next elections; but we nave
Good deal of something very like absolute certainty
ifa futurc can have any certainty as basis Il our
calculations For il must he remembered that there
arc many men who now habitdally oppose ana
often dcno,nce M Plruc!l and his policy "h"
wouId not bc sitting in the House OF Commons Il
they had not at one time profeSSei To be in union
Of sentiment with him. could name but spare
your readers the trouble of reading the names at
least twentv-two men who if they had Snoken ont
before fine 'lsf clc, ous the opinions th"y now roe
feSS with rcqardto }ir Parnel and his policy would
have fouid themselves consigned 10 the peaceful
ohscuritv of private life the moment the elections
were over These men are those VINO were once
characterized Iy Mr.. Gladstone in siuguarly hap
pv phrase all the more effective because lt' quiet
sarcasm was entirely unintentional, as " Il "a non-
nal Home Rulers"
A. tbe last elections 'ho orly question in Ireland
was Homo Rulc or no Home Rule. Mr.. PamelI was
not thcn leader Of the rarty: at least he was not
~
was the life and spirit and movement 81 the party
bu, in name hc was only tie follower Of Mr. shaw.
who had been elected lcadcr on the death ~ Mr..
Butt An of ms then who professed ourselves Homo
Rollers aud I'm favor Of what Is called ara active
policy. aud who wcrc believed 60 hc sincere wcrc
elected without further question. lut the moment
the elections wcrc OYER 10 became clear that the
0nominel Home Rulcrs' wcro not going ~ keep
step with tn real Home Rulers. The nominal
Home Rulers would have nothing t. do with that
policy Of obstruction without which, n7 on
dcavorcd to show your readers IN former letter
there was no charco Of getting real hearing Tor
the case Of Ireland. When The time cmno round
for the annual choice Of a lcldcr-wo call "nr
leader the president Of the party and elect him every
vear-a largo majority declared against Mr. Shnw
and mt Mr.. Parncll In his place. one obvious
to,son for tIis course was That the elections hod
declared with trumpet tongue for MIR PnrnolL 10
elnttod 81 number of candidates " his own. sent
Ulc,n ~ the constituencies u his name ma with
bis recommendation. dthoy were elected hy ov"
whcmiup mnioritica. lie oppose aou' "i lh' most
unwctful and eomo 81 The most interruptions lhld-
lords IN their own counties, mud lac euoc"'d'd ~
rirrttng tbom Some of tho candidates ho put Tor
ward were nnttlcd and absolutely unknown Young
men. They cninc fo'wnM simply ha Nj fhfn'l
candidates md on NJ rnrucls recommendation. of
and are among the beat speakers In the House Of
Common. bat they were Obscure young monni that
time j. Truth so far as Nationalist politics wore
| con acnod only one namo came out Of The bal OF
box AT the elect ions of $50. aud that was the name
of Mr. Parnell. Il would have been absurd, It
would have been impossible, TO appoint any either
man but him our leader lie was elected president
of the party; and then the nominal Home Rulers
left us The elections were over; they had o Ger
tain lease Of their seats for three four years and
| they LETT us.
Some Of these mon vcre perfectly honest. 1hoy
had not forescen when the election began that Mr.
Parncll was going to carry all before him. There
had been no occasion for them to express any
opinion in opposition to his policy. They were
under the impression that things would go on rs
they had been going; that Mr.. Shaw would be the
Leader OF the party and Mr.. Parncll moro OF
less unmanagoabe follower. They were qnil'
taken by surprise when they found themselves
brought suddenly face TO face with the alternative
either to follow MI Parnell 90 separate from hl'
party Had these men known what was going IA
happen they would probably have spoken boldly
out before the elections and takon their chances OF
the consequences These, however. are only some
Of the nominal Home Rulers There are others who
undoubtedly disguised their real opinions know
Of one case where nominal Home Ruler ana a
conspicuous adhcrent Of Mr. Paruel were standing
in conpanionship candidates for the two seats in
one county. They had been colleagues alreadyin
the representation of the county. They were W
issninc JOINT address TO he signed By their names.
The address was prepared by the Parnelite; but he
had omitted to make any ausion IN It to the
"aetire policy title policy, that Is to say, of Mr.
Parncll II had not thought IT necessary lac had
assumed that adhesion 10 that policy would be
taken for granted The nominal Home Ruler, how
eve- urged that they should distinctly pledge them
selves to the active policy. lie wrote In with h
own hands the words which professed their com
mon adhesion TO tho active policy He was one %
the first tn break away from MIR parncll when Tia
nlnrl nnn ,.n,n nrnt md hn Ind annmrnl la cont ln