The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1884-08-31

- ~ R0mom00TD0. thA WyURDUD q o.
sunss ,Aeid By the dsanir = asa cad ~ the
nos.dsalsw 8.O0. From DR.. Hpss'sSubls 80 in
poessnt ABDUCTION ID 10 b nae: lfshe Assier's
pa3snse holds only one trump. the chances are
g IN 100 Tor nearly event that the dealer holds
i've trumps, or moro. % that there 10 justihca-
ton for the we'll known instinct OF good players
TO lead single trump II It IL q tolerably high
one and they have Otherwise geod cards. But
II the dealer holds only one trump the chances
Of his partner holding i've or over are only IS
In 100; and n the deal II with the adversary
they arc reduced 10 2s-an effeot oitsn under.
rated, or completely overlooked.
A series OF calculations Of no little Importance
deals with the number Of times that suit will
probably 20 around whom one player holds .
given number Of cards OF that suit, The most
practical table is % follows:
Cards hsd BY ,ssdsr 0
In 1000 deals the suit will 70
around, Once or more ........ ess EST s7s 800 ees
Twice or more ....."............e< 2 $40 al i+S
Ihrics...'.....''.
Imperfect shuffiing, II should be added. will
cause the suits to 20 around oftener.
In an interesting chapter DR.. Pole dis.
cusses the probabilities affecting the lead OF the
ace from ace and four small ones In plain SUITS
lead the propriety OF which has at times been
called In question. Tho usual rule. ~ every
suit should be trumped on tho second round.
The probability OF making tho acc on the first
round is 95S in 1.OO0-in other words. the
chances are "a to 1, while II a small card 10 led
the leader will probably make one trick in tho
suit 836 times In 1000 deals. Tho odds in favor
OF opening with the ace are therefore about 8
to 7. but 1t may very fairly be doubted whether
this difference is 90 great as to be absolutely
conclusive. As to the Information afforded to
the partner by tho lead OF the ace, followed By
a small one. as much would certainly be given
by beginning with the penultimate; and those
who believe with Hoyle that by passing the
ace twice" three tricks may DO made by ones
own hand alone have at least a reasonable
ground for their faith and practice.
Finally. DR.. Pole has made some excellent
calculations concerning the play Of the king
and small card second hand a small one be-
Ing led a subject that has provoked much and
not always satisfactory discussion. It has been
customary to assume that whom A small card
was lod tho ace was equally likely to be in the
hand OF tho leator. or of tho third or fourth
player the fact being overlooked that 40 times
out Of 100 the lead Of q small oard indicates
tho non pos session Of tho acc, We have not
room to follow. or even to summarize. the
computations but their result may be given as
follows: II player holds king and small card
second hand. aud small one 10 led on the right,
1t is probable that the ace will lie with
the leader $50 times in 1000. with the
third hand 40 times md with the fourth hand
40. Dismiss ing the fourth hand as mmaterial
since that u,ayer will not mt tho aca nm his
nartner,s ti,o rr,n.s bo 4. nnrn al ., a., ~,
- aon.i,, go, a,snH, W ~
LIS. ~ Nv. "o,." eon ,,, =. ny
rea's .h''' ',ie king put on VIII win tue trick
oso times IN i.ooo. or ABOUT SIX times In ten.
rms Is WIN reference 10 plain suits. In trumps
the ease is different The leader has probably
more trumps than any ono else, and is moro
likely than he would be in plain suits to keep