Savannah morning news. [volume] (Savannah) 1868-1887, 1884-10-11

Now. If we figure out the PROBABILITIES
on the above premises. we Will ind that
the crop of 1854 should have been by
the theory about $500. 900 bales, while the
crop Of 1SS4-S5 should be about 6, 10000.
Last year the bad season further lowered
the condition subsequently. and as mat
ter Of course, this years condition may be
raised or lowered hereafter accordingly,
as the seasons may be prOpitiOus or the
reverse. However. with fairly good
weather from now on it may be accepted
that present indications are for a COM
paratlve yield Of 6, 1901 600 bales.
say comparative YIELD" meaning Of
course this years actual production COM
pared with last years actual production;
and this brings up few points 70 be con-
sidered before we can intelligently es-
innate the commercial crop.
Usually from year to year a certain
amount of old cotton is carried over in
the country, thus swelling one crop at
the expense Of another; but as long as
this continues every season the
grand result is not materially affected. as
what one crop gained early in the season
Of cid cotton it would lose to the next by
an about equal extent of its own unfOr-
warded production. This amount is usu-
ally put at about 100000 bales, so that
year / would give 100000 bales to year ,,
while the latter would make it even by
giving the 100000 to year 3. This year,
however. the succession was Interrupted.
1884 got its 100000 bales from 1SS2-S3.
but as the drainage of cotton from the
country the past summer was IN
precedented, there was no 100000
bales left for 1SS4-S5. To be on the safe
side. let Us say that 1SS3-S4 made a clear
gain Of 1j0. 900 bales, 90 that the actual
crop Of that year was only about 5,560,000
bales. For all that we know now, the
usual Overplus will be left in the country
al the end of this year; we must expect
this crop Will lose at least 10000 bales.
This makes a total of at least 800, 600 bales
To Re considered in estimating the CON-
mercial crop OF this year.
Furthermore, the comparative weight
Of the bales is an item to be considered:
these weights vary considerably from year
TO year. Last year the bales were light;
this year they are heavier. Only a rough
estimate Of this item is possible so early
n the year, but an increase of only l per
cent. in the weight means difference in
the crop of about 60, 900 bales. This esti-
mate of the increase looks very moderate,
cut where there is so much uncertainty,
il is best to be conservative. We conclude
then that we have to deduct from cur
comparative crop Of 6, 10000 bales, total
Of $50, 600 bales in order to get at the real
commercial crop indicated by the reports.
This makes the estimate for the crop of
lSS4-S5 only about 5,S00,000 bales. This
amount can be still further reduced by a
bad fall, and especially by an early frost;
and on the other hand may be somewhat
increased by exceptionally fine conditions
during the remainder Of the season.
However, we will need a fair average
season to get ., 100000 bales, and there is
nothing in the present outlook to promise
more.
The Atlantic States have Jared much
better than the average, while Texas Is
FAR behind. The condition there is 81
against 81 last year, and last year was
bad one for Texas. As far as we are con-
cerned. Savannah may reasonably expect
this year 20 per cent, more cotton than
last season. DEMOCRITUS.