Iron County register. [volume] (Ironton, Iron County, Mo.) 1867-1965, 1884-05-29
Cle5er Guesses.

CieTer Guesses.
| AS the varied mlSfOrtuneS OF our
.hangeable climate Cypress us with
.dan1nabfe itesati0n,n discussion Of the
weather becomes les and les pad
iingof thinness in conversafion sor Z
subterfuge for Incidence. We scan
with real interest the representations
ofthcweathef prophets OF fhese latter
d5ys, whd diner frx,m savaee Rim doo.
sors chiefly IN a happy security for Their
heals whether the yaticinatf0n IS fol-;
lowedsby rain orSshfne. Pr0gnosficas
lions are now giEen with tho aecuracq
90 astonishing III america largely bez
cause of the favorable position this con-
tinents holds geographically. for that
purpose. So wellis this ACCURACY mn
derstood and 50 matter-of-t tact Has the
idea of them become that proposition
by some young Londoner to cable an
inquiry to. New York as to the NOR
rows weather in the west Of England,
whittier hewished to- 90 deor-chasiuk.
would excite no surprise in his dub s
reading-room. Vennor, BY his blind
guessing from records on the supposed
strength Of s.Averages:" the NeM York
sIribatase, with its big barometer clock:
Bennett s. HesG ID, making every wind
pay for its announcement by blowing
an advertising trumpet; and. chief Of
all, the organized Government service,
have combined to raise practical niete-
orology into the d gnity of sc.ence-in
popular estimation. Yet, putting
aside popular sacclaim, which
is an especially midi screet judge
where it is gratified. have we
ANYTHING thus far thatwe can call prop
erly a scienceof the weather. leaving
the prophets out of the question, what,
briefly, are the methods of the War
Departments Signal Bureau at Wash-
ington, whence we get orr daily re-
ports upon the existing and the expect
ed conditlon sof = Heavens sweetest
air?' OF an the many faithful and ef-
ficient officers Ind good fellows who
have been attached to the signal corps
only one may be said to have done
really scientific work on the sub ect-
Professor Cleveland Able Ontof long
experience in meteorological studies he
formulated certain rules to be applied
when circumstances were thus and so.
The ascertainings Of these circumstances
is the chief work of the signal corps,
and TO accomplish it they have, the
weil-known machinery Of fixed stations,
trained observers, and precise instru-
ments in all parts of the Union, whence
tri-daiiy Geographic reports are sent, at
uniform hours, to the headquarters in
W ashington AS these reports of rain
sor sunshine, wind, calmsS1pg, ETC.. come
in, they are plated upoi1a big map by
the officer on duty. The data having
been collected the officer applies the
rules of his weather arithmetic and
works out the probabilities. This is
cleverness, not science. 1t is only
removed by the Intervention
of electrical machinery tri-
fling degree from the ordinary
wig-wag practice of signal men in flag
cling messages from one tree top to an
other, he Signal Bureau is in reality
a great centre for the reception, editing
and publications of systematic news
about the weather, and it deduces the
indications published as train-d s.
patcher's Office in a railway could
bulletin the present status and pres
pective arrival of all the trains upon its
lime. Break down the telegraph wires
and all its science falls to the ground.
This is an unfortunate showing for
those who believe that there is or can be.
such thing as a science OF weather.
that IS, that the laws of meteorology
can be educed and formulated and
their phenomena calculated in advance
i An. EN- rmous bulk of scrupulously ex-
act records are on file IA the Smith
sonian. at the Coast Survey, which is
especially interested in storms, and in
the Signal Jt1ice. Ferel and Able in
w ashin ton and savants elsewhere the
world around have been consulting
these and other archives. constructing
comparative tables. hewing at,the sub
.ect on every side; yet they profess dis
appointment in the efficacy of their
theories when tested, 1t was a we'll
marked and significant fact that,when
q change in the control of the weather
service occurred not long ago, the per-
centages of failures in prophecy largely
Increased, though the newcdher Yves
man OF theory and weat aer-science SO
called. while his predecessor had put
no faith in anything but ''going it
blind hit or--miss, on stipulated for
mule. Instead Of our weather wisdom
having. suddenly developed into a
science. has it not become simply a
more highly perfected art?-CAicaqo
Tribune.