Daily Los Angeles herald. [microfilm reel] (Los Angeles [Calif.]) 1876-1884, 1884-10-02
R.sF. DEL VALE,
pres,dan,,a, probabilities

For some tire past we have been ex-
ercising our wits in calculations upon the
outcome OF the coming Presidential elec.
tion. As matter Of fact, discounting
enthusiasms OF temperament, we think
it is pretty hard to beat the estimate of
the News Letter, of San Francisco,
which we reproduce for the benefit OF
our readers. The points In which we
differ from our San Francisco contempt
rary are those in which the Democratic
campaign in Ohio is represented AS
strong, while that of New York is &c
counted weak. For our part we would
exactly reverse these conditions. Time
will shortly tell whether the HERALD or
the Newsletter is the wiser diagnoser.
Waving this point our hebdomadal con.
temporary says:
1t is hard to form an intelligent opin-
ion of the truo state of the Presidential
canvass from what the partisan papers
are saying of il. or from the senatorial
political dispatches of the Associated
Press. II we should Judge the feeling
in Massachusetts from what the Boston
Globe and the A dvertiser are publishing
of Blaine, we should unhesitatingly pro.
nounce his chances of election at an
end. For they are vocferously calling
on him, in the name of the Independent
section of his party. to withdraw, and
representing him as dead duck. II
we should, on the other hand, take
the word of ex.Attorney General, +. A.
much shaken in that State. III
we tied to the opinions publish.
Cd from day to day in the New
York World, Herald, Tins, Eren.
ing Post md Telegram, we must inevi'
tably believe that very largo majority
of the voters of New York and the Mid
die States hold the Repub., IN candi-
date for greet scoundrel and will vote
accordingly. If we took the Democratic
or Butlerized Sun and Star for our
guide, we must as surely regard Clevo.
land as weak, undeserving person, and
so unpopular in his own State that there
is not one chance in n thousand OF his
escaping defeat by anywhere from %, 900
to $4,000 votes. And the thorough.
going Republican Tribune agrees with
its Protestant Democratic contempora-
ries, the Star and the Sun, on this point.
The same conflict of view pervades all
the doubtful States. Mr.. Hendricks
feels sure of Indiana for himself
and his Chief, MIR. Harrison and
the indianapolis Journal are equally
sure of that State for Blaine. Senator
Sherman is confident that Ohio sis all
right while ex-senator Thurman is
telling the interviewers that Ohio is all
wrong for Sherman and his side. Mr..
ex-Speaker Randall is quoted as author
ity that Pennsylvania has been jeopar.
died for Blaine by the Butler move
ment; and there is quite as good author.
ity that Pennsylvania will go for Blaine
by anywhere from fifty to eighty thou
sand. MIR. Blaine himself, after canter
through New Jersey. thinks he will gain
that State from the Democrats; but the
best Democratic opinion leads to the
conclusion that New Jersey will give
Cleveland bigger majority than the
2,0l0 it gave Hancock over Garfield four
years ago. A few weeks ago the
political gamblers IN Wall street
were freely offering one hundred
to so on Blaine. A week ago the bets
were even, and now, rs report has it,
the odds are slightly in favor of Cleve-
land. But no reason is ventured for the
change. In like manner the California
market has huctuated. The Republi-
can leaders here declare their confidence
in the State by at least 5000 majority,
and some enthusiasts have raised it to
10000. The Democratic orators are
claiming the State by the old majority
for Stoneman in 1882. 1t is curious
fact that neither party here is inclined
to consider the very hard, close and
strictly partizan struggle and outcome
of lSS0-possibly because it would be
indiscreet and sort of give away to
claim no higher majority that the rs
votes that Hancock got over Garfield
that year, and a thing unsafe to gamble
on.
The Neins Letter, which is not com.
mitted to the fortunes of either party,
may safely be trusted as more reliable
Judge of the situation as it stands than
any of these strictly partisan papers or
gamblers in politics. Our view of it is
that Blaine has lost no ground since the
opening of September. The Vermont
election on the I'd of this month WINS
slightly against the Republican party
the majority some hundreds lower than
usual; and the circumstance has been
used by Blaine's enemies for much more
than it is worth. Vermont is so thor
oughly Republican and so constant that
her September maiorities never influ.
ence the November election one way or
another-not more than those of Ken
lucky, Georgia, Missouri or Texas
would affect the Democracy in
other States on national issues.
The little prestige which Blaine
may have lost by the result in Vermont
on the I'd of the month was more than
compensated by the result in Maine on
the Sth. And both parties have been
using the Maine election in way to
befog and deceive the average voter. The
Democrats have claimed TINT it was in
the nature of rebuke to Blaine, iudi.
eating a decline of his popularity at
home, because il fell a few hundred
short of 20 600 Republican majority, and
over u, 900 short of Grants majority
over Greeley in 1872; while the Repub'
licans have been treating it as worth O
~ cat uedi ihoit III It's ihhuthSN vi Wv
national contest than it is. The
truth lies betweee the two views.
The fact is that Blaine's candi-
date for Governor in Maine received H.
900 more votes than were given to Grant
in the State in 1872; but the vote for
Greeley that year was nearly 30, 600
less than the vote this year for the Dem.
ocratic candidate for Governor; and so
Grants majority of 20, 600 in 1872 was
really less to boast OF than Robio's ma.
jority OF little less than 10000 this
year. But if Robes majority, or plu-
rality, had been 80, 600 this year, it, in
iluence on the October and November
elections in other States would not JUS.
tify the Republicans in making very
loud crow. We think it doubtful that
the Maine election has changed as many
as 500 votes one way or another in Ohio
or West Virginia, for October, or ii
New York, Indiana, Connecticut OF
any other close and doubtful
ate. 1t is possible that Blaine''