Alexandria gazette. [volume] (Alexandria, D.C.) 1834-1974, 1884-04-10
WHAT WILL BE THE EFFECT OF THE
VERY WET SPRING?


To the editor of the Alexandria Gazette
So much discussion is going on among the
farmers as to the probable effect Of the un.
usually great fall Of rain this spring, upon
the comparative wetness or dryness OF the
remainder of the year, that am sure the
following information obtained by Mr.. John
Enders, of Richmond, from the two best
authorities on the subject, will be read with
interest. Many persons have said that an
average amount of rain falls every year,
therefore dry season must follow wet
one, in obedience to what they call "the law
of compensation" That this compensation
will take place in an average extending
over large number Of years is true that
it takes place during the period Of 3 single
year is not borne out by facts. To learn
what we could about the bearing of the ex.
traordinary rain fall in Virginia during the
last three months, on the seasons for the re-
mainder of the year, the Hon. George D.
Wise, at our request, conferred with the
Signal Service bureau on the subject, The
following synopses of the response Of that
bureau we commend to the diligent study
Of our friends:
WASHINGTON CITY, March Goth, 1884
Hon. George D. Hise, House Of Representa-
tires:
My Dear Sir.-Acknowedgin the receipt
of the communication of Mr.. John Enders,
vice president of the Southern Fertilizing
Co., referred by you to this office for answer,
/ beg to reply that the question of sequences
of wet and dry years or seasons, under the
SO called law of compensation, can best be
illustrated by the following tables, which
are submitted as a partial answer to the
question asked by Mr.. Enders. From
table giving the annual rainfall in inches
and tenths of inches from 1871 to 1883 in
elusive at Washington, D. c., we find that
beginning with 1871 when the fall was IS
inches; in 1872 it was only 800; in 1873 it
advanced to 35.7; in 1874 was SAG; in 1875
Al; in 1876 40; in 1877 so; in 1878 the
greatest of the SERIES go inches in 1879 the
least, 30S; in 1880 3SS in 1881 ~; i'll 1882
46S in 1888 45.7 an average of thirteen
years ~ s inches. This table exhibits the
large variations which occur in the annual
rain fall in two successive years; observe
1878 is nearly double that Of 1879. 1t must
be concluded therefore that any supposed
law compensation by virtue of which a wet
cannot be based on the equabilily OF the an
4uC OlupCuSdllOuo w
not take place always within the course of
single year. In order to ascertain what
the rain fall records of the past thirteen
years at Washington, shows rs to the Sc
quences of wet and dry seasons, full tables
have been prepared giving the percentage
Of rainfall for seasons of three months each,
is above or below the average of the same
three months for the whole period.
A study of this table shows that the Sc
gucnces are of all varieties. Thus, in 1872,
very dry winter was followed By spring
and summer less dry, but still not equal to
the average; in 1873 wet winter was fol-
lowed by an equally wet summer. In 1S75a
somewhat dry winter was followed by very
wet summer; in 1876 a nearly average win
ter was succeeded by the wettest summer Of
the series; in 1880 all average winter was
followed by very dry summer. In 1878 a
wet winter was followed by a still
greater increase Of rain in spring and
summer; in 1881 very wet winter was
followed by an average spring, and that
by an exceedingly dry summer. In
view Of these discordanJ results the sup
posed sequence Of wet and dry seasons is
considered as not we'll sustained In the
mean of long series Of years the amount Of
rain fall does not sensibly change, there be-
ing general compensation, but when the
compensation for a dry period or wet
period will take place cannot be predicted.
Very truly yours,
S. M. Mills