Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1884-11-01

Special Dispatch to THE EVENING STAR.
HARTFORD, CONN.,, November 1.-The political
situation in Connecticut is complicated beyond
comparison with that OF any other campaign for a
dozen years past. There are indefinite factors
which make all estimates Of the result guess work
ana which may account for the confidence with
which both OF the great parties claim triumph on
Tuesday next Promising that Connecticut Is no
torlousy aclose state, with pluralities rarely eX-
ceedng 1000 for either party on total vote OF some
thing over 10000 it is evident that the detection
or TWO or three thousand from either party Is
matter OF serious moment, and IT Is on
these DIRECTIONS that party managers are led to
make their estimates. The democrats claim pu-
railty for Cleveland Of five thousand on an estima
ted total vote OF one hundred and forty thousand
next Tuesday. They reach this by taking sixty
nVe thousand straight democratic votes for Han
COCK four years ago and adding to 1t the natural
Increase OF three thousand votes and the reinforce
ment resulting from Independent republican aid,
estimated at five thousand.
The republicans had 5000 four years ago, but
the democratic managers after admitting a gain
10 That party OF 5000 by natural increase. claim
that they win lose 5000 by the independent repub-
lcanS and four or five thousand by the prohibition
vote Closer estimates reduce these two votes
last named by One-half, leaving the estimate OF
the total republican vote $500 The democrats
by the Butler ticket and the Irish detection leav
ing them a 600. or plurality OF about 5000 These
ngureS look well on paper, but their weakness lies
In the TACT OF the fmpoSsibility OF estimating
with any degree OF accuracy, either the tndepen-
dent republican. the prohibition the Irish votes
for Blaine. The republicans claim $500 plurality,
ana get at this by taking the Garfield vote and
natural increase, making large deductions from
democratic strength for the Butler vote and Irish
0electon; then placing the prohibition vote at its
usal figure or one thousand. and estimating the
independent vote not to exceed two thousand. II
Is evident that the element OF uncertainty pre-
walls throughout both calculations This is
everywhere admitted, and proof is found
In the very few bets that have been made
in this section on the result in the state. The pro-
feSSlOnal betting men are giving Connecticut
wide berth this fall. Ny own Judgment is that the
democrats have OvereStinated the aid they Will re-
ceiye from the prohibition vote indirectly and from
the independent vote directly The Independent
managers don't pretend TO be able TO count noses
and it is evident the men they hold up in proml-
nence In the various sections OF the state are not
men of influence or vote getterS They are in this
state at least largely clergymen college professors
ana such men, not manufacturers. StorekeeperS or
practical business men. having personal interest
In questions or the campaign, and having men uI-
der them whose votes they can influence, or direct
ly control Connecticut is essentially a manufaC-
turing community, and questions or tariff interests
employer and emplOye more than Muligan letters
or Maria Halpin stories. Connecticut people don't
care for side issues. Reviewing the situation as Il
stands to-day, right on the eve of the election each
party appears TO have an even chance. But IL
should be remembered that for very many years
Its electoral vote has been always given to the re-
publican column In 1876 it went for Tilden
but Cleveland is not enshrlned In the hearts OF the
democrats Ilden was, nor was the tariff so
much of an issue then as now. There is a very
considerable Silent vote in the state, which comes
out only in presidential campaigns, and then al
most invariably on the republican SIDE The re-
publican managers anticipate that 1t will range
Itself under their banners this year as usual II IL
ddate for governor and the whole state ticket will
probably be elected. The independents have placed
those names on their ballots. The legislature will
certainly be republican. ensuring the election Of a
republican Senator In 1885, G.D.C.