The Iola register. [volume] (Iola, Allen County, Kansas) 1875-1902, 1884-06-06
Clever Guesses.

Clever Guesses,
As the varied misfortuDes of our
changeable climate Cypress us with
'.damnable iteration" discussion of the
weather becomes less and less pad
ding of thinness in conversation or a
subterfnge for Incidence. We scan
with real interest the representations
of the weather prophets Of these latter
days, who differ from savage rain doc.
tors chiefly in happy security for their
heads whether the vaticination is fol-
lowed by ram or shine. Prognostica-
tons are now given with the accuracy
SO astonishing in America largely be-
cause of the favorable position this con-
tinent holds geographically for that
purpose. So well is this accuracy I'M
derstOod and so matter-of-fact has the
idea of them become that proposition
by some young LondOner to cable an
inquiry to New York as to the NOR
rows weather in the west Of England,
whittier he W shed to go decr-chasing.
would excite no surprise in his clubs
resding-rOom. Vennor. by his blind
guessing from records on the supposed
strength of averages" the New York
Tribune, with its big barometer clock:
BENEFITS Herald. making every wind
pay for its announcement by blowing
an advertising trumpet; and, chief of
all, the organized Governments service.
have combined to raise practical mete-
orology into the dignity of a scence-in
popular estimation. Yet, putting
aside popular acclaim. which
is an especially indiscreet Judge
where it is gratified. have we
ANYTHING thus far that we can call prop
erly science of the weather? Leaving
the prophets out of the question, what,
briefly, are the methods of the War
Departments Signal Bureau at Wash
ington, whence we get our daily re-
ports upon the existing and the expect
ed condition of Heavens sweetest
air." Of all the many faithful and ef-
ticient officers and good fellows who
have been attached to the signal corps
only ono may be said to have done
really scientific work on the sub ect-
Professor Cleveland Able. Out of long
experience in meteorological studies he
formulated certain rules to be applied
when circumstances were thus and so.
The ascertaining of these circumstances
is the chief work of the signal corps,
and 10 accomplish it they have the
well-known machinery of fixed stations,
trained observers. and precise instru-
ments in all parts of the Union. whence
tri-daily Geographic reports are sent, at
uniform hours, to the headquarters in
" ashington. As these reports of rain
or sunshine, wind, calm, fog, ETC.. come
in, they are plated upon big map BY
the officer on duty. The data having
been collected the officer applies the
rules of his weather arithmetic and
works out the probabilities. This is
cleverness, not science. 1t is only
removed by the Intervention
of electrical machinery a tri-
fling degree from the ordinary
wig-wag practice of signal men in flag
ging messages from one tree top to an
other. The Signal Bureau is in reality
o great centre for the reception. editing
and publication of systematic news
about the weather. AMI it deduces the
indications" published as a train-d s.
patcher's Office in a railway could
bulletin the present status and pr S
pective arrival of all the ira n; upon its
line. Break down the telegraph wire;
and all its science" falls to the ground
This is an unfortunate, showing for
those who believe that there is or can be
such thing AS q science of weather.
that IS, that the laws of meteorOlogy
can be educed and formulated and
their phenomena calculated in advance.
An en- rmous bulk of scrupulously ex-
act records are on file IN the Smith
sonian. ut the cast Survey, which is
especially interested in storms, and in
the 81. nal tffice. Ferret and Able in
W ashin ton and savants elsewhere the
world around have been consulting
these and other archives. construct ng
tables. hewing at the SUBJ
ect on every side; yet they profess dis
in the efficacy of their
theories when tested. 1t was we'll
marked and signi. cant fact that when
a chan e in the control of the weather
service occurred not long ago, the per-
centages of failures in prophecy largely
though the newcomer was a
man of theory and weat ier-science so
called. while his predecessor had put
no faith in anything but ''going it
hit or miss, on stipulated for
mule. Instead of our weather W sdom
having suddenly developed into
sc enc. has it not become simply u
more highly perfected art?-Chicaqo
Tribune.