The Somerset herald. [volume] (Somerset, Pa.) 1870-1936, 1883-01-03

the subject. A series OF. simple
guesses, based upon no reasoning
whatever, will come true in the long
run as many times as they will fail,
Until, then, weather predictions are
fulfilled more times than they fail,
they must be regarded as equiva-
lent TO guesses and as having no
value whatever. All predictions of
the weather 10 be expected month
or more in advance. whether based
upon the position of the planets, or
OF the moon, or upon the number
of sun-spots. or upon any supposed
law OF periodicity of natural phe-
nomena, or upon any hypothesis
whatever which to-day has its adj
vocates. are as unreliable as predic-
tons of the time when the end of
the world will come.
There is a difficulty in refuting
the assertions of those who pretend
to foreteh the weather since their
predictions frequently relate 10 oc-
currences which are almost sure To
prove in part as foretold Thus the
prediction of early snow in the
northwest in August or September
is a very safe one to make. if one
claims the right TO test it by the
weather reported at any one town in
the Northwestern States or Terrific
ries or adjacent British territory.
Similarly the prediction of storm
ia March is quite certain to be full
filed During the past ten years
the number of storms which pre-
vailed iii this country in March has
averaged twelve, varying from ten in
| 1881 and 1882 to eighteen in 1879
Some OF these have been very Sc
we're, and it rarely happens that the
month of March passes in,any year
without the occurrence of one or
more storms accompanied by high
winds upon the Atlantic coast. I'M
doubtedly in March, 1888, there will
be storms of some severity, and
some persons will be found who will
notice the storm which comes near
est to March II and claim that Mr..
Virgins prediction was verified,
only that it was day late, or day
early, or was not quite as severe as
anticipated, or moved in a slightly
different path, or in some other way
different in detail from that describ-
ed, but that it was sufficiently near
to entitle the author to a high rauk
as a prophet. Let no one expect his
prediction to be fulfilled u the let
ter-it is safe to say it will not be;
but let every one expect that the
coming March will, like all its pred
ecessors in the memory of man, be
characterized by storms of greater
or less severity. The United States
Signal Service in no one OF Its de-
partments is more uniformly sue
cessful than in giving notice of the
approach of severe storms The re-
cords of The Dffice show that not
single storm OF any severity has
moved across the country OF our
eastern shores for some wears with
out warning being given to the At
lantic coast. When March, 1888, !
arrives, the Service will issue its
storm warnings in advance of the I.
storms which are To be looked for at
that season of the year, and because
they do not depend upon the imagi- /
nation of any would-be-prophet, but
rest upon the experience which past I
years has given the Service in Its I
work. The published statement /
that the United States Signal Ser I
vice has such confidence in Mr. /
Virgins that it displayed storm sig |
mails on the Lakes three days in ad- |
vance of recent storm, on the /
strength of his prediction, needs DO
comment exceptan emphatic denial. |
The Signal Service Is independent |
of any one who claims to foretell /
the weather; it works by its own 4
methods and endeavors 10 keep pace 4
with every real advance in the sci (
ence of meteorology but to avoid
everything which belongs to the
realm of foolish imaginiugs. In :
point of fact, the Service has fr-t
learned of any predictions made by
Mr. Virgins from the letter under
present discussion, and in the case,
above mentioned, storm signals we're
not displayed on the Lakes till
few hours before the approach of
the storm in question.
Too severe rebuke cannot be in
fiicted upon those who attempt to
deceive or needlessly alarm the peo-
pie by publishing such staten ents
as that Of Mr. Virgins Their words
are totally untrustworthy and the
people should be so informed by
those who are familiar with the sub
ieets upon which these prophets pre-
sumo TO speak. Such statements fill !
lunatic asy ylums, and those who
make them are enemies of society.
Their publication is a pestilence,
and it is the duty of all persons who
know and prize the truth 10 de-
nounce them and enlighten those
who might believe them.
". 3. HAZEy.
Chief Signal Officer.
Washington, Dec 20
Probably some one has been criti-
cising the stvle Of writing peculiar