New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1883-10-20
THE PREsIDENTT1L FIELD.


The elections in Iowa and Ohio really narrow
the Presidential contest of 1881 Indccisivc as
the election in Ohio was, it still proves % that
the Republican party apart from the temperance
issue there presented can command rs much
strength as ever at the West and l2) that the
Democratic party can hope to carry that State
if at all. only by a fragrant alliance with the
nQuor interest. The situation then Is thi,i
I'm sixteen States formerly slavcholding, be-
cause no full and free expression of the will OF
the people can be expected, Democratic Electors
are likely to be chosen. These State, have l2l
Representatives and 1873 Electors.
In fifteen States formerly Republican, the Re
publicau Elcctor, are reasonably sure to be
chosen. and these States have also l2l Repre-
scntatiycs, but only 1jl Electors
There ore seven States which may be
called doubtful-Caliiornia. Electors; Colo
RADIO, 3 Indiana, 10; Nevada, 3; New-Jcrscy,
9 Ncw-York Sc; and Ohio, %; i'll all 81
Electors. With the South, IS of these Electors
will suffice to choose a Democratic President.
With the balance of the North, 30 will suffice
TO choose a Republican President. The four
teen votes from the Pacific States and Colorado
are subject to similar influences. If Ohio casts
probability that Indiana may vote the same way
in November, unless the Ohio result should be
determined by a phase Of the temperance qucs-
ton not presented in the other State. New
York and Ncw-JcrScy too, are likely to be in
fucnccd by similar causes, except that New
Jersey leans much more to the Democratic side
in National contests.
No nomination can be made by either party
which will be equally strong in Newly Orl with
thirty-six votes, and in Ohio and Indiana with
thirty-cight votes Further, a Democratic
nomination of the sort calculated to be strong
in Indiana and Ohio would be almost surely
defeated in Ncw-York, and Il Democratic nomi-
nation calculated to carry Ncw-Iork would be
almost surely defeated in Ohio in October, and
in Indiana also in November. Whoever con
sidcrs closely the political elements that control
in these three States will see that this ObScrya-
ton has much force, and that the Democratic
marty has to look for nomination and policy
which will carry either the two central States or
Ncw-York, but without reasonable prospect in
either case Of carrying both Ncw-JcrScy is in
such position that it might be attached to
either party firmly bya nomination, as Gov
crnor Joel Parker is firmly persuaded Pcrhap,
lllUCu ana IltNuIlthH lnlEHl carry NfN-l 'lh'
but they would be very surely defeated in Ohio
and indiana, particularly because the Demo-
Gratis of Indiana would not be united in support
of Mr.. Hendricks, and the people Of Ohio would
not support the candidate who tried to compass
the defeat of President Hayes by bribery. Mr..
Randall might be a strong candidate at the
East, but his position on the tariff question
would cost him the votes of thousands of
Democrats and sure defeat in Ohio and Indiana.
Mr.. Mcdonald might DC a strong candidate in
Indiana, but his frcc-trade record would be apt
to defeat him in Ncw-York and Ncw-Jcrscy. h
1t remains true rs was said by TIE TRIBUNE
a long time ago, that the events OF next winter
at Washington and elsewhere are likely to make
the candidates for both parties. Questions are
coming up for action upon which some men,
perhaps not now regarded as possible candi-
dates at all, will obtain commanding position
with public sentiment in one or more of the
three doubtful blocks of States, on the Atlantic
coast, In the centre, OF on the Pacific coast. He