The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1883-02-04

third groups. and not In the iirst.
Thus IN, the last decade about 4 millions Of
s ss 'sss sns 8: !; = ssS
III Orou ;n n such nss ss
81 i. hs .H sy. s 81 o Ga
'S s 7s " "a N! Tse ,ss ~
population In the new regions grows at an in
Il The third gra was SS s ss,Ssr
By lsSs Sy b SsS Sns s Sasp
1870 and 1850 there 10 an addition Of nearly !
kin sSs; saS SSss ss Ssss s &:
populAiiop a. iris new region At tho pas past
mii!"ns or about hall what is rsa%irsd to al
w The rseion. with rural population, 70 the the
Ss not e ens SE1 ths second sFonS
States very probably be filled IN to the level Of
Mi n5sf H. @ s e re b wS,k . a.
other ten years. that Is. by 1900. assuming the
to the population In the last group OF all would
DO l6 millions, which would be far more than
sufficient to I'LL up the vacuum.
TWENTY-FIVE YEARS AHEAD.
AucT0 lr Bull bHOtHcT WY VI OOhluG ~ tuS
matter. During the decennial period 1s70-80.
;SS., Ss
" In the cities. Assuming an equal division Of
VIII g. on hS srrors 81 hd States
twenty.fye yearsm,,4nd 1t ~ more likely that the
%sssr asu T svs q %Sq % c
H. rarsI s;sr!s,s e ne
us 70 Gn,f Eassrn sye Even ooE
n i the fss Area % int nsd
Will 81 up to the e tSe Of 1
But the distribution Of the, increase betwoon
the Grours; as have said. is likely to be un-
with even greater rapidly. To look. at the
matter IN yet another aspect: OF the so mil
lions addt ion nopnatiS,n assuming an i'm in
viii b SAFE town rorustion. ieaSips IS millions
u!ation is to Increase in the orisinS. States.
S thar h. the sh5s e .h sv 8 n Of ors
cept tho millions required for tho growth of
rural population i1 the second group 20 tho
occupation Of the available area In thu third
group Or double what - required. Whatever
wag o9s NJ hs e se% pre5
the United statos viii Be ieIt There Viii be
tier. 1The whole available area will be reopiod
.gricul,urally. as the Eastern States are now
Al! this must involve. a great change in. the
conditions ~ the growth Of population and the
general economic conditions OF the country. 1t
to BE- surmisod from tho bare statement Of the
Eeomerc increase Of populattiosnn ITSELF point,
Tie end Of century from thi. time H Long b q.
within twenty. Ave years. the conditions q tho
expansion OF population must be substantially
different from what they are now.
THE NARROW LIMITS OF EXPANSION.
1T will be urged that 1t is notorious the
United states i can sunpSrt enormous masses Of
FOUND figures is tw.ys or tSirtser, tines t that
Of tho United Kingdom and eight times that
FL r;sd What II the Rop""tion
the, superior fertility Of many tracts OF the
thsi H. se sn'sSh to %
indefinite increase OF population. and that there
is room roo ior great expansion OF regulation with
be The ess whs We may ebserv s ha Is Is
not quite 70 tn. present point This is not a
question Of supporting large POPULATION any,
imrortant. The moment there Is little new ~;
land to occupy the conditions Of expansion
sS'ry year ra %as' sFnH so
will be extracted with increasing difficulty.
The agriculture ,G t., must bec1me different
Kingdom and France not sapp &c, ali their
in Tho tnsd States Would T Ss ey ,ne pc aom
pared with the United Kingdom and France
II the geometrio increase in the United States
should continue no more than century.
may show that there is. after all. no room for
an indefinite expansion Of population within
like to go further and spgses. that the limits limits
OF such expansion, without a very great and
nm2st nc change IN the agrienltnre
m!slend, nut the figure Of s5 per square
q the untsi States alter "a s sdeu tar q
the agrisN! ,I Population Of France psr
ferences between the agriculture Of France and
the United States: /. The consuming power OF
the United States regulation il much greater.
SO that the soil cannot be expected to support
the same number OF Americans Ms French. q
The Western farmer In the United States
the country but abroad. A rural population
one:fourth that Of France may thus he quite
not come to the subject with European ideas
Is to the scale OF living.
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS FUNDAMENTALLY AL
TERED.
Il It would 30 foreign to my purpose to indulge
In speculation rs to what will be- the conse-
ei q shs to comnee settle
t1,t euot WHetueT III Tue lnlteu
Kingdom. or in Germany, or in the United
sriss sasws r. sxn r !" the rate
point out that as the existence Of vast tracts
OF virgin soil In the United States has
permitted. during the last hundred years,
W Wi,h eXPans M o. INC huronean popuati2n
ECONOMIC history Of Europe In that period en-
tirey different from what it would otherwise
hays been. so now the anproach 70 II complete
Tho conditions OF economic growth will he
fundamentally altered. Possibly there may be
chemical or other inventions rendering posi-
biz biz; great improvements In agriculture, which
crease OF the quantity Of new land available.
Possibly we may have the rate Of growtn OF pOpm-
lation itself checked. But with the change 81 one
condition others must change. II the masses Of
level OF prosperity. II there is no change. the
nature Of the difficulties TINT will arise Is OBJ
vious; the masses OF lnborers will have to con-
tend under increasing difficulties against u fall
In the scale Of living.
But while refrain from indulSing in general
speculation, ! may perhaps be allowed to point
out somo OF the more Immediate consrnuences
which are likely to follow from AN approach to
complete settlement in the United States, Of
which We seem to be within a measurable dis