Savannah morning news. [volume] (Savannah) 1868-1887, 1883-05-18
The Mathematics of Horse Trottine.


Patrons of the turf will no doubt he de-
lighted to learn that Professor Nipher
has discovered means by which a table
of logarithms can be brought to bear
upon the hitherto glOriOusly uncertain
time table OF the trOtting turf. As pre-
| scented to the Academy of Science, Pro-
lessor Nipher's analysis of the record of
tr0ttlng horses from 1913, when a record
OF 30 was made, leads to the conclusion
that there is a logarithmic relation be-
tween the time in years, counted from
| the time when certain speed
originated, and the number of horses ca
pable of attaining that speed, the number
| OF Years being ten times the lOgarithm of
the number of horses. From this analysis
OF the record of forty years and the con-
stancy of the factor discovered he argues
| that the final speed of which the trOtting
| horse is capable may be at least approXi-
mately determined More than that. he
claims that the times at which given rates
Of speed will be attained may also be ap-
! prOXimately determined, and he states def
nitely that the equations show that by the
close of the present century the speed
| should be reduced from 2:11 to 2:03. At
the present time the record is being low
cred at the general average rate of forty
i've hundredths Of second per year, but
this rate is constantly changing accord
| ing to the -lOgarithmic factor. This
discovery Of an unYarying applica-
ton of mathematics to the achieve
ments Of the trOtting horse is decidedly
interesting and cts results may be i'm
mense. just what those results will be
is a problem which even the subleties of
ditferential calculus probably afford no
formula to determine at present. 1t does
not as yet appear that because we can de-
termine that a speed of 2:03 will be at
tanned in the year 1900 we shall also be able
to determine the speed that particular
horse will make i'll aparticular race. The
calculation has not reached that pitch
of perfection, and the only imme-
! is the possible opening of
new class of books in the pOol-rooms-
| a new system of futures in horse racing,
| so to speak. Still the professor points out
that the observations of the past forty
! years can be very adVantageOusly supple
mented by the analysis of the next ten
| years records and the calculations can be
constantly made more accurate as the
| period OF observations is extended. The
! possibilities of differential calculus are
| great, and there is no telling now what we
may learn to tell one ofthese days. In fact
| it need surprise no one if in the next few
! years the blackbOards in every pool room
| should be found emblaZOned with the
! curves and equations and lOgarithmic
! VI the .ZU ana JllG Z:lO ana
2:10 classes, with the records from which
| investors will be expected to make their
own calculations as to the probable eX-
| ploits of individual horses. 1t might be
! feared that too exact an applica-
| ton of mathematics to the sport
/ would entirely do away with betting on
the horses, but of course it would leave
| the jockeys open to the same delightful
| element of chance which obtains at pres
ent, so there is no particular reason to
! suppose that the pool rooms will necessa-
! rily close. 1t is hard to make up ones
mind just what NAV be the complete
| significance of Prof Nipher's formula.
! He is altogether too careful and COM
| petent a mathematician to be mis-
taken in what he has discovered, and
the cOnstancy of the observation-disclosures
1 through so long a series of years is GER
/ tainly puzzling to account for on the sup
| position of mere happening. Probably
| ii would not greatly astonish hOrsemen if
the predicted speed of 2:03 should be
reached by the close Of the century, but
that the trOtting record will be cOntinu-
Ously lowered for three or four hundred
| years beyond that, until it apprOXimates
| 1:2S-a speed far greater than the best
running record, is to say the least i'm
probable. The odds are against it.