The Republican. [volume] (Oakland, Md.) 1877-current, 1883-07-07
What will Food Cost?

The weakness of the markets, here
and at the West, has been enough to
arrest attention and to cause heavy
losses to many who have confidently
operated for higher prices. AT first
it was imagined that the weakness in
wheat might be out ofsympathy with
the collapse in lard. But it does not
appear that the holders of lard were
also holders of grain; in fact, it is
stated that McGeoch was a leading
seller of wheat, and declared his abil-
ity to make good all his contracts in
that product, even while cOnfessiDg
failure in lard. Hence it is suspected
that, being relieved by failure from
present pressure as to his lard con-
tracts, he has been in the better posi-
ton to win back part of his losses hy
more vigorous attacks upon the price
of wheat. At all events, somebody
attacked with vigor on Monday, and
prices at Chicago fell about 2 cents
per bushel. But it is not of much
matter to the public what the imme-
diate cause of a decline may be, or
whether this or that speculator eats
or gets eaten. The larger and far
more important question is whether
the conditions warrant consumers in
expecting lower or q higher price
for wheat.
No doubt it was surprise to many
that the wheat market declined soon
after the publication of the June re-
port of the Agricultural Bureau,
which indicated that there would be
"a deficiency in the winter wheat
crop of 1888, as compared with con-
dition June 1, 1882, equal to about
95,762,32S bushels, from which, de-
Quoting the increase in the spring
wheat crop, there is a probable def
cheney in the total crop of winter and
spring wheat of 86,762. 23S TO SO, 262.-
1923 bushels" Most persons overlook
ed the fact that this estimate took no
account of the surplus remaining I'M
consumed and unsold from the large
crop of 1882. If that crop was 502,-
100000 bushels, and it 81 200, 900 BUSH
els has been consumed for seed, and
4.3 bushels, per capita, or about 234,-
100000 bushels, for food in this coun-
try there would still remain POI, 900.
600 bushels for export or for surplus.
The quantity exported is officially
stated for eleven months ending
May 81 it is 139, 525, 25S bushels, and
for June the quantity will not exceed
the 100000 bushels shippe ed in June
1882. Hence there remain for surplus
from the crop of 1882 not less than
60,0O0,O00 bushels.
1t is true that stocks on hand were
reduced lower about July /, 1882,
than at any other time for many
years. Perhaps as much as 2O,OOO,O 900
bushels might be added to the stock
on hand without making it undesir-
ably large. But the rest must be
added to the yield of 1888 to ascertain
the quantity available for consump-
ton or export during the next twelve
months. Now the estimate of the
Agricultural Bureau, untavorable as
it was, indicated yield this year of
412,OO0,O0O to 415,OOO,OOO bushels, so
that the probable supply, even upon
the basis of that estimate, after adj
ding 20,000,000 bushels to the stock
on hand, would be not less than 450,-
900, 900 bushels. The figures given
already show that the quantity ex-
ported during the past year and the
consumption for TODD and seed have
not exceeded 1856, 100000 bushels.
The average export price of wheat
for the last year has been only SLIP,
and yet only about LAC, 00O, 900 bushels
have been exported, though the ex-
ports from the last large crop-that
of1690-amounted to 1876, 900, 900 BUSH
els at an average of about S1.114 per
bushel. This suggests that we cannot
expect larger exports than those of
last year unless we are prepared to
sell at lower price. or the crops
abroad proves mailer. Atpresent the
indications are that the crops abroad
will be much more satisfactory than
they were last year. If so, prices here
must rule lower, or the quantity ex-
ported can hardly be as great. But a
decrease in the quantity demanded
for export. would add to the surplus
to be carried over to another year. 1t
must be added that these calculations
are based upon the June report of the
Bureau of Agriculture, which was
commonly thought more unfavorable
when it appeared than the facts war
ranted, and that very helpful weather
has been reported from the great
wheat-growing districts since that
time. Hence it does not seem un-
reasonable to believe that consumers
will have moderately cheap wheat
r 4 q a