Phillipsburg herald. [volume] (Phillipsburg, Kan.) 1882-1905, 1883-09-20
The Fastest Possible Trotter.


How fast will the fastest possible trot-
ter 90? What is the highest speed that
can ever be attained by the American
trotting horse for a distance of one
mileP
These are questions which well known
scientific men, Prof. William III. Brewer,
of Connecticut, and Mr.. Francis +. Nj
pher, of Missouri, have lately endeaY-
ored to answer in three papers contrib
uted to the american journal of Science.
The first of these articles, by Prof
Brewer, appeared in April. The con-
tributiOns of Mr.. Nipher are published
in the numbers for July and August.
Prof. Brewer publishes table show
ing the number of trotting horses which
have attained or surpassed various rates
of speed ranging from 2:30 to 2:11 for
series of years extending from 1843 to
1882. From this table it appears that
in 1843 there was only one horse that
had trotted mile in 2:30 or better; in
1858 the number had increased to IA; in
1868 to SO; in 1873 to 376; in 1882 to
1854. The table also shows that up to
1882, 495 horses had trotted mile in
2:25 or better; 275 in 2:23 or better; 1876
in 2:21 or better; go in PIG or better;
Is in 2:17 OF better, and s in 2:15 or
better. 81 leave it to mathematicians, y
said Prof: Brewer in reference to the
table, ''to plot the curves which imme-
diately suggest themselves to determine
how fast horses will ultimately trot and
when this maximum will be reached. 3"
Mr.. Nipher has undertaken the task
thus suggested. His first conclusion, as
stated in the July number of the An1erG-
can Journal of Science, was that the
maximum speed to which the American
trotting horse will constantly approx
mate, but never reach, is one mile in 90
seconds, or 1882. He also concludes
that the time of the trotting horse will
be reduced to within one second of this
figure in $50 years after the year 1860;
that is to say, in the year of our Lord
1920. Mr., Nipher does not claim abso-
lutte precision for his results, and says
that the maximum speed may possibly
be as great as 100 seconds. In the
course often years, however, he thinks
the limit can be fixed with accuracy,
and he is quite clear that eventually the
maximum speed of trOtting and running
horses will differ only by a few seconds.
In his last article Mr.. Nipher states
that he has made a new calculation by
mathematical instead of graphical
methods, and has thus obtained 81 sec
onds, instead of 90 seconds, as the most
probable figures for the minimum time
of trotting a mile. The probable error
of this value, he says, is not over four
seconds, and it is not likely that the run
ming horse will cut his record down by
five seconds, so that it is probable the
trotter will finally surpass the running
horse.
If this prediction is verified, the inbab-
itants of the United States in the twenty
third century will have horses that can
get over the ground by means of an arti-
fetal gait faster than a natural gait. We
believe all writer's agree that running is
natural to horses, while fast trOtting is
not Mr.. Nipher states, however, as a
well-known fact that some herds of wild
horses on the plains were natural
PAGERS, so fast and steady that they
nearly all preserved their pacing gait
even when pursued by the best running
horses. He speaks of one large white
Texan PAGER that could never be caught.
NJ Y Sam