New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1883-12-30
YEAR or APPREHENSION

The business Of 1888 is practically over, and
many rejoice that they have safely passed this
year of trial and ill-omcn. Now that apprehen-
sion no longer has force to cause disaster, 1t
may be recognized that the fear of panic in
1888 has been one powerful cause of CONNER
cial and industrial depression. 1t has been easy
to show that this fear had no logical founda-
ton Panics are not logical. The chief reason
why political economy, as taught in the schools,
has not won respect a. n science is that 1t has
gone upon the assumption that men always con-
suit their interests, and act in a rational man.
ner, and thus has left out Of sight some of the
most potent forces in the social organism. It
had become a deeply rooted belief in the Amer
lean mind that commercial disasters came with
regular periodlcity like the tides or the seasons.
Everybody has been looking for trouble, ever
since this tenth year from the panic of 1873
began. The fear has caused caution, and the
canton prolonged dulness, and tho dulness
has brought disaster to very many. Thousands
of works have stopped, whose owners would
have gone on and "taken the chances" if this
had not been the year 1888. Thousands OF
enterprises, including some of great importance.
have knocked az the doors of capital all this
| wear In vain. Thousands of men are ont of EN-.
ployment to-day, and looking sadly at the fes-
| tivities in which they can have but a scanty
share, because a Interpretations apprehen-
sion has been hanging like black cloud over
trade and industry for a twelyemOnth.
The apprehension was not wholly supersi-
tious Prompted to look closely for signs Ofevil,
because 1t was the year 1883, people looked,
and found not few. 1t was easy to see that
production In several important branches had
increased far beyond the demand for consump-
ton. Prostitution in the iron industry was
clearly foreshadowed by the stOppage of sales
of new railroad bonds, much more than year
ago. The state of the iron, cotton and wOollen
| industries abroad was such, before the year be-
gan, that period Of embarrassment and forced
| Humiliation was by many anticipated. The
general success of labor in extOrting high
wages for work performed, even though the
| work to be done should thereby be indefinitely
diminished, had prepared clear-headed men to
expect the curtailment reproduction which such
a course usually causes. AS rule, 1t takes
| the average trades uniOnist about a year OF
misfortune and pinching to find out that plenty
of work brings fair wages more surely than
| combinations to make production costly. But
| the greatest cause of apprehension, and there
fore, perhaps, the chief cause Of embarrassment,
was uncertainty as to legislation and as to the
effect Of laws already enacted.
The proposed change Of tariff one year ago,
was frightening many who have not been hurt
Beyond doubt, the fear of this change operated
with many, and the hope of it with many more,
to check business operations. When the act
| Al Il
its effects, and that doubt has not been wholly
removed. Before a clear understanding Of the
workings Of the actcould be gained, Democratic
success in Ohio led to the belief that the Con-
gress now in session would make much more
radical changes in the tariff, and this impress
sion has not been removed. A still more potent
cause Of fear was the rapid substitution OF
silver for gold in the Treasury, and of paper
for coin In the circulation. Many sound bankers
are still Of the belief that great dis.
asters in 1888 were averted only by the
comparative excellence of the crops. Others
feel that the dangerous period In the
fall would not have been passed 80 safely had
there not been q fortunate flood tide In
the revenues, compelling the Treasury to pour
out money freely In the redemption of bonds
These impressions, If not altogether correct
were at least effective with men upon whom 9
mere superstitous fear had no influence. What
ever the causes, the fact is that the year 1885
has been one of apprehension from beginning
to end and the ablest and boldest speculatori
who counted upon speedy revival of pros
perity have paid heavily for their confidence.
The end of such a year may well be regarded
with sense Of relief. We shall soon begin 9
new year, without other prevalent fears of evil
than those which sound reason may prompt
And of such fears there are less than appeared
year ago. A revision of the tariff has beer
| enectedi its results are now LARRY known and