The Republican. [volume] (Oakland, Md.) 1877-current, 1883-01-20
Prospects for 1883.

Prospects for 1883.
Tnere ) superstition in many
MINDS that the year 1888 must bring
anotier Mnic. So far as this notion
rests npql the fact that it is now
apont teEyears since the last COM
mes vhllapse, it issa mere super
stirioh, unwarranted by experience
or reasoning. The attempt to trace a
ten-yesr periodicity in the recurrence
OF commercial disasters has to distort
facts. The crash of 1887 was not fol-
lowed by another in 1874, nor was
the panic of 1857 succeed by anything
deserving the same name or consider
alton inlS67, nor can any fixed period
he suggested which will bring into
harmony the really important disas-
ters of 1887, 1857 and 1873. The mere
date, therefore, has neither meaning
nor weight. If a disaster is to be
looked for this year with any reason
whatever, it must be for very diff
ferent reason.
Nor is there ground for such ap-
prehension in the visible expansion
of commercial credits during the past
two years. The average of indebted
ness has not as yet nearly reached
what may be termed the bursting
point. 1t is not anywh ere near as
high as it was at other times when
panics came. 1t would therefore be
Inferred with reason that, if disas-
ter should come in 1888, it would not
be due to any eXtravagant expansion
of credits in commercial business,
though the fact that there has been
some expansion would make the
effects more serious if an explosion
should occur from any other cause.
Excessive building of railroads has
been mentioned as a reason for ap-
prehension. 1t cannot be doubted
that great sum of money has been
unwisely and uhprofitably invested
fnlthat direction, as respects the gen.
erai interests of the country, though
the Instances i'm which individual
promoters haye lost or will lose may
be much less numerous. If new
road close to the New York Central
should make that property worth
much less, there would be tempor-
ary or possibly permanent loss to
somebody, even though the new road
should be largely profitable. In some
instances that could be mentioned,
the apparent purpose in building new
lines was to cripple older companies,
or to force them to purchase the new
lines for more than their cost. But
waste and excessive competition do
not necessarily involve disaster. Mr..
Vanderbilt can spend more money in
a day, without risk of bankruptcy,
than some men could spend in life
time, and this country is getting rich
enough to bear without serious dis
turbance an amount of unprofit-
able investment which would have
brought ruin fit had occurred thirty
years ago. 1t has not been claimed
that the real cost of 900 or 10000
miles of railroad built last year was
more than $4,000 per mile. Only a
part of that cost was unprofitably in
vested. But $3.50, 100000 is less than
the average yearly addition to the
wealth of the country by saving, and
probably less than half that addition.
The country cannot be ruined by
wasting fraction of half its clear in
come.
Industries have got into a false po-
sition, it is true, and one of some en-
barrassment. Their difficulty, how
ever, Is one of excessive production
in some directions, and that tends to
cheapness and to increase ofconsump-
ton, which, with partial suspension
of production for a time, operates to
cure the disorder. There can hardly
be any serious disaster as a result of
temporary over-production in legi-
innate branch of industry, If some
lose. because products must be sold
cheaply, others gain in buying cheap
ly.
The principal danger, so far as there
is any real danger. grows out of i'm
proper and excessive speculation. The
effect of such speculation upon indus
try and commerce. its close connec-
ton with financial movements, its
powerful effect upon the stability OF
corporations. have been repeatedly
portrayed. 1t cannot be denied that
the fury of speculation which has been
witnessed during the last year in
some departments does harm, and in