New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1883-12-29
A RELATED PANIC.

| The prophets of evil have only two moro
business days, if the great commercial catas-
trophe predicted for 1888 is to take place.
Early in the year it was asserted that "sOmC
failure more important than that of Jay Cooke
in 1878" would occur this year; that it would
! drag down hundreds of traders and banks, and
start panic the end of which not even these
financial VennOrS could f6rcsee. This prediction
was confcssedy based upon the theory that the
| wild speculation which so disturbed business
in 1882 would come to head this year, and
end in the crash of some great operator
| The theory was well enough. There was
excessive speculation last year, and has been
this year. particularly in wheat, lard, cotton and
oil. That speculation, too, has terminated
dsastrOusly for most Of the men who tried to
control prices. The wheat ring went down
early; some Western operators lost few mill
ions, and others made a few, but no banks
tremblcd and no crash followed. A Pittsburg-
NewYork combination undertook to put the
price Of petroleum up /" out of sight but they
had to liquidate last summer with results which
have not since been boastfully recOunted for
the ediiiCatiOn of outsiders. Then McGeOch,
the Lord of Lard, was financially drowned in the
ocean of grease which his operations had col
lected at Chicago. Still no banks of Importance
were shaken, and nothing resembling panic
occurred. Morris Ranger, the Cotton King,
was another victim, and his failure did drag
down some other operators in Europe, but
caused no disturbance here Shaw g. Brothers
made decided sensation at Boston and in parts
of New England and Canada by their collapse,
and there were also heavy losses I'm New-York.
number Of concerns connected with their
speculation i'm leather went down, but general
business was not dsOrdcrcd, and the COM
mcrca fabric again proved too sound and too
strong to be shattered. Nor did the failure of
G. W. Ballou s. Co. in stock operations cause
any prolonged disturbance even in the Stock
Exchanges, to which its effects were almost
wholly confined.
The financial Ycnnor started with the idea
that business was "rottcn, so that any severe
shaking would cause serious disaster. Theory
and fact do not seem TO agree in this case.
The failures which have occurred, though i'm
portaut enough to affect separate branches of
business for time, proved wholly insufficient
to cause general disturbance, because in reality
the condition Of business was on the whole not
unsound. The average of commercial indebted
ness, though larger than it had been in preccd
ing years, was too low to render any wide
spread panic possible. a great many firms
were running with scanty profits, but not many
were sinking money in trade. Where business
was depressed oruniavOrable, the result proves
that most dealers had prudcntly shortened
sail in season.
The financial NcLnor really expected that
some of the great railway kings would go down
with a crash. Several of them have failed, from
time to timc-in Wall Street rImors. Since
this week began, rumor has been trying TO pull
down Mr. Pullman, as it tried before to over
throw Mr.. Could, Mr.. Vanderbilt, Mr.. Willard
and Mr. Kccnc. All these men seem to be
doing business still and no reason is visible for
supposing that they have been short of cash.
In fact, tho poverty Of those who manufactured
the gloomy rumors has often been the only
difficulty really existing. There are only two
business days Of the old year left, and if any of
these operators are going to fail, to the dclcc
tation Of the financial YcnnOr, they had better
be quick about it.