The Valley Virginian. [volume] (Staunton, Va.) 1865-1895, 1883-04-19

last year at 500 900 900 bushels, there remained
for export March 1, in excess of all needs at
home, about 100000 bushels. Some details
of the evidence as to the quantity consumed
in this country may be of service at this time
The Agricultural Bureau got its system of
crop reporting into working order during the
latter part of the decade 1860-70. Estimates
OF the yield prior to 1866 were necessarily
valueless, on account OF the condition of
large part OF the country, and there is strong
evidence that the returns for that year were
much too low. From 1867 to 1881 inclusive,
period of fifteen years. the estimates of the
Bureau, when corrected by the census reports,
may be considered substantially correct, and
they form at all events the only attainable
data. During these fifteen years, then, the
yield of wheat was a, 735 200, 900 bushels. The
net exports, taken from the official reports of
the Treasury Department, with flour included
at 49bushels to the barrel, were ], 253, 239 ,765
bushels during the fifteen fiscal years ending
June 80, 1882. Hence there haye remained
for home consumption about 3,482 100000
bushels. 1t happens that the short crop of
1881 left almost no supply on hantl at the close
of the fiscal year 1882, and that the short
crops of 1866 and 1866 had also caused the
country to be substantially drained of surplus
wheat when the crop OF 1867 came in. Hence
it is safe to say that the actual consumption
for all purposes during fifteen years cannot
have varied materially from 3,482. 100000
bushels.
The quantity used for seed averages SIS
bushels to the acre. Applying this to the acre.
age sown each year from the yield of previous
years, we find that the consumption for SEED
up to last fall was 65S 800, 900 bushels, leaving
for'home consumption in other ways $685.
100000 bushels. By applying ratio of 4.3.
bushels per capita to the mean population of
each year, we find that at this ratio the con-,
sumption in fifteen years would haYe been
1882, 100000 bushels-a result so close to the
ascertaned quantity consumed that 4.3 bushels
per capita may be safely taken as the actual
consumption in this country for food and man
ufactuIes. This of course takes good years
with bad; the consumption is undoubtedly
larger than this average when wheat is album
dant and cheap, and lower than this average
when wheat is scarce and dear. But compar-
ison year by year shows that the consumption
cannot at any time have risen above about 4.5
bushels for each person, or fallen below about
four bushels yearly.
The mean population for the current year
namely, the population of about January l.
is about 54,470.000. This is ascertained by
applying the ratio of increase without immi-
grafton for the last decade for two years and
half, and adding the immigration officially re-
ported from June 30, the date of the last cen
sus, to January 1, 1888. At 4.3 bushels per
capita, the consumption for food and manufac-
lures from the crop of 1882 will be 1874 ,17S, 900
bushels. Adding seed for probable acreage
to b. sown for the next crop of 38,000,000
acres-the largest ever reported thus far
namely, 81, 100000 bushels, we have a total
consumption of about 6,0OG000 bushels,
leaving, from the report crop of 1882, 206,-
100000 bushels for export. The actual exports
OF wheat and flour from July 1 to March 1, as
officially reported, were equivalent to 49,
974 ,S71 bushels of wheat. Hence there would
remain about 100000 bushels to be exported
between March 1 and July 1, or to be carried
over into another crop year.
Ii the wheat of last year had been of good
quality, there would be nothing extraordinary
in carrying over 100000 bushels or more
to replenish the greatly depleted stores in the
country. The supply on hand was very much
less than usual last July, and some addition
would in any case be made. But the yield last
year was not altogether of the best quality,
and on that account less would be willingly
added to the stores retained. The exports
during the rest of the fiscal year will be deter
mined largely by the price, and the recent
tendency of the markets has indicated dis
position on the part of farmers and other hold
ers to lessen their stocks on hand before the
new crop begins to come forward. With free
exports during the next three months, the
quantity carried over would not be larger than
the country would ordinarily retain from q
large crop.-N. Z. Tribune