New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1883-06-22
WHAT WILL ROOD COST 4,

Bright sunshine and warm weather have
begun to make wheat cheaper The weakness
of the markets, here and at the West, has
been enough to arrest attention and To cause
heavy losses to many who have confidently
operated for higher prices. At first 1t was
imagined that the WEAKNESS in wheat might
be out of sympathy with the collapse in lard.
But it does not appear that the holders of lard
were also holders of grain in fact, II is stated
| that McGeoc was leading seller of wheat,
and declared his ability to make good all his
contracts in that product, even while confess
ing failure in lard Hence it is suspected that.
being relieved by failure from present pressure
as to his lard contracts, he has been in the
better position to win back part OF his losses by
more vigorous attacks upon the price of wheat.
At all events, somebody attacked with vig0r on
Monday, and prices at Chicago fell about
cents per bushol But il is not of much matter
to the public what the immediate cause of n
decline may be, or whether this or that specu-
lator eats or gets eaten. The larger and far
more important question Is whether the con-
ditions warrant consumers in expecting lower
or a higher price for wheat.
No doubt it was a surprise to many that the
wheat market utCllutu bOOH dlbti tht DuDliCd-
ton of the June report of the Agricultural
Bureau, which indicated that there would be
- a deficiency in the winter wheat crop Of 1888,
as compared with condition June l, 1882,
"equal to about 95,762,32S bushels, from
which, dcducting the increase in the spring
wheat crop, there is probable deficiency in
the total crop of winter and spring wheat of
| (" SO, 762, 238 to S9,262, 1913 bushels" Most
persons overlooked the fact that this estimate
took no account of the surplus remaining I'M
consumed and unsold from the large crop of
1882. If that crop WAS 500, 900, 900 bushels,
and if 81 600, 900 bushels has been consumed
for seed, and 4.3 bushels per capita, about
$4,000, 900 bushels, for food in this country
there would still remain 207,0O0,OOO bushels
| for export or for surplus. The quantity ex-
ported is officially stated for eleven months
ending May il it is 139, 525,25S bushels, and
| for June the quantity will not exceed the
| 6,60O,000 bushels shipped in June 1882.
| Hence there remain for surplus from the crop
| of 1882 not less than 1900, 900 bushels.
1t is true that stocks on hand were reduced
lower about July l, 1882, than at any other
| 2O,OOO,O0O bushels might be added to the
kJOck on manu- MlJHOui HldhIHs ~ uHucSIhplJ
| large. But the rest must be added to the yield
of 1888 to ascertain the quantity available for
consumption or export during the next twelve
months. Now the estimate of the Agricultural
Bureau, unfavorable as it was, indicated yield
| this year of 412,000,0 BOO to 415,000, 900
bushels, so that the probable supply, even upon
tho basis of that estimate, after adding
! 20,000,000 bushels TO the stock on hand,
would be rot less than 450,000,000 bushels
The figures given already show that the guam
tity exported during the past year and the con-
sumption for food and seed have not exceeded
435. O00, 900 bushels.
The average export price of wheat for the
last year has been only 81 II, and yet only
about 40, 900, 600 bushels have been exported
though the exports from the last large crop
that OF 1SsO-amounted to 10000, 900 bush
els at an average of about 81 11l2 per bushel