Burlington weekly free press. [volume] (Burlington, Vt.) 1866-1928, 1883-11-23
Party Prospects for 1854.
From the New York Evening Post,

Unless there is great change of some sort
during the next six months the two great
parties of the country will enter upon the
Bssfaucted c6ancas c e. h very syenI
of this year. as we have had occasion to say,
resulted in giving neither party any decided
advantage for next year. This fact is made
clearly apparent by an examination of Il e
States in reference to their votes in the eltc-
toral college. Under the new appo-ionmen mt
there will lie 401 electoral votes in 1891,
against 800 in 1880, and POI will be necessary
for an election. II the States were to vote
next year as they did in 1880 the Republican
candidate would receive 22S votes and the
Democratic 173. But it is extremely doubt
ful if they will vote In that way. The total
of 22S includes the votes of New York, In
diana, and Connecticut all of which have
been carried by the Democrats since 1880,
and all of which are doubtful States in every
election. Indiana is more likely to go Dem
ocrailc ia a presidential election than Re-
publican. and New York is as likely to 10
one way as the other. Taking out the 81
electoral votes of these three States, the
'sure" Republican States remaining have an
aggregate Of Ill votes. The Democrats, on
the other hand can reckon surely upon the
solid South with 1853 votes, and upon New
Jersey with niue, giving them as a starting
force 162 votes.
This.leaves the Republicans 80 votes short
of a majority and the Democrats 80 votes
short, with the following doubtful States to
fight for:
California. ............ Nevada. .......".....8
z
10 ro,. ''''''''''''cs
The important part which New York's 80
votes will olay in the problem is brought out
clearly by this showing. With New York
the Republicans can electric candidate and
have SIX votes TO spare. Without New
York they must carry Indiana, Connecticut,
California and Nevada or be defeated The
Democrats can win by carrying New York
and Nevada, or New York and any one OF
the other doubtful States, but all the doubt
full States except New York combined would
leave them seven votes short of majority.
Indiana and California are more likely to go
Democratic than Republican, while Connect
cut and Nevada are more slikcly to so Re-
publican than Democratic. The chief object
of both parties will therefore be to carry
New York, us the candidate who loses it
will stand extremely small chance of election.
There are many obvious advantages IN hav-
ing this State as the deciding factor in a
Presidential election. Neither party as wei
have repeatedly pointed out can hope to
carry New York unless 1t has candidate
and represents principles which will COM
mand the support of the independent voters. !
The knowledge of this fact will have an i'm
portant influence upon the deliberations of
both national conventions, and make them
more careful in their work than they would
be.
With New York as the battle-ground there |
would be chance for rational campaign |
in which important public questions would |
be discussed in sane way. 1t would not |
need to be campaign of money The re-
cent election demonstrated that money is Of
little real influence here. For the first time
in many years no assessments were made,
and only small fund, raised by voluntary
was expended.