The Austin weekly statesman. (Austin, Tex.) 1883-1898, 1883-11-15
1ss4-CERTAINTIES AND PROBA.
BILITIES.

1t is time now to speculate on the
probabilities of 1884 in the great fed
eral contest. The struggle will be
entered into with fresh vigor by the
Republicans, and Democrats, morti-
fed at the results in New York, will
go co work to get the Empire State in
proper political trim to give the cleo
toral vote of that state to the Demo
cratic nominee. to whom it rightfully
belongs. If the Democratic nominee
be elected, and we think there can be
no doubt that he will be, it becomes
of the utmost Importance for Demo
Gratis to not only hold the
House of Representatives but to con-
troll if possible the senate. 1t is not
only very certain that the senate in
1885 will be republican if that party
elect president in 1884, but it is GER
tain to be even if the Democrats sue
coed in the general election of next
year. The senate at presents con-
sists of rs members, of whom 80 are
Republicans, SO Democrats and Ma
homeless who are for all practical pur-
poses A,publicans. This gives the
opposition majority of 4. In order
then, to iethe senate and give Demo-
cratic vice president the casting
vote, the democrats must gain 2
senators, and to have a majority
in that branch of congress, and not
lose any. There are twenty-five sena-
tors whose terms expire in March.
1885, of whom fourteen are Democrats
from Alabama, Arkansas, California,
Florida, Georgia, Indiana Kentucky
Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, North
Carolina, Ohio, Oregon and South Car
DINA. OF these California and Oregon
are certainly doubtful and perhaps
Indiana. The eleven Republicans
who go out come from Colorado, Con
necticut, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Neva
da, New Hampshire. New York
Pennsylvania. Vermont and Wiscon
sin. The late elections show that WI
need expect nothing from New Yorl
or Pennsylvania in increasing thu
Democratic power of the senate
But it has been shown that Ohio anC
Virginia will elect Democrats. Thi
will make a tie, and therefore if ;
Democratic vice president be seated
in the chair the senate will be politi
cally revolutionized. If the Demo
Gratis carry the presidential election
it is possible that Indiana will swell
the Democratic strength in the senat
to one majority, without the vote o
the presiding officer. These are con
illusions that cannot now be changed
They are fixed, and time is all that i
necessary to make them politics
facts. 1t may be seen then hoy
intensely exciting the next fec
eral canvass will be. Efforts will b
made to retake the house
and the senate can only be say ed t
the Republicans by Republican be
ing made its presiding officer. 7
keep it Republican the Republica
nominee for the vice presidency mus
be elected. But the doubling Thorn
asses have something to say on thi
subject, and it becomes necessary t
present figures of reinsurance. NeN
York has been electing Republican
senators right along for many term!
but it has been casting its vote fo
the Democratic presidential nomine'
and it will continue to do so. Tn
following table. based on figures de
rived from the elections of 1882, G
later ones, gives the vote cast in eacl
state, together with the elector;
votes, and a classification, showing
according to prevalent opinion, thei
probable party tendencies next year:
DEMOCRATIC STATES