Burlington weekly free press. [volume] (Burlington, Vt.) 1866-1928, 1883-03-02
WEATHER Prophets.

tender merces of the newspaper paragraph
lists; but the predictions published under the
names of these would.be weather prophets
have met with such an extraordinary amount
of credulity on the part of the general pup
lie, that it would be foolishuess TO expect
that their race will speedily die out If there
is demand on the part of the public for
this class of cranks, and disposition TO
watch for and credit the very widest gucsses
they may make, then there will not be lack
ing men who will risk their reputation for
veracity and common sense for the sake oil
the brief notorcly which such bold guess
work will bring them. Nonnor's name, PROB
ably, would always have remained in OBJ
security had it not been for his reckless but
confident assertions as to what the weather
would be weeks and months in advance OF
any possible data upon which to found a
conjecture. As it is, he has become rich
and famous out of the merest bareiaced
charlatanry that man could think Of Any
body can guess ut the weather, but there are
some ways OF dccciving the public which
require brains and skill. Nennor may
be known as Il consummate dolt AMI
transparent fraud, but nevertheless he is
known all over the continent of North America,
and his almanacs sell for jus. as substantial
a medium of exchange as the most valuable
commodity in market. lie is standing ex-
ample of the value of advertising, good or
II. t,,J . Ia, ntta inn MI M
fancy of the people, and it is the easiest thing
in the world to coin his no,oricty into
gold.
When we look fairly at the matter, we
must see that there is no possible way of de-
termining the weather ut such long periods
in advance rs are selected by the
weather prophets. The only way OF
telling beforehand what the atmos-
pheric condition at Il given time will
be is to watch closely for indications OF
a meteorological change, either local or re-
mote and then report the probabilities OF
that change at Il certain time and place. This
is tn. method of the naturally wcather-wise,
and it is the scientific method of foretelling
more than twcnty-four hours in advance.
The farmer can tell with considerable accur-
acy, at sunset. the prospect of the day to
come-further than that his data do not
warrant an opinion and the signal service
man will telegraph from Washington al mid
night the probabilities Of the coming day.
Sometimes, too, great storms or cold waves
can be outrun by the electric current for
thirty or forty hours; but there is no guess
work here. 1t IS simply scientific certain
ty proclaimed to the world with the rapid
ity of lightning. When the weather bureau
says that storm IS coming, at a certain time
and in certain track, then indeed it be-
hoovcs those who are interested to take heed
and prepare, for 1t is not likely to turn ont
as Virgins storm did-onc of the fairest
and pleasan,cst days in the calendar of Win
ter. The weather prophet has nothing in
the world TO found his predictions upon but
his own colossal assertoness. There is not
even spark of ingenuity under the PONDER
Gus sedgc hammer dictum which he brings
down upon the anvil of human credulty.
"Thclc will be n great storm at (blank)
time" Is his formula, and then he
fills in-hc must fill in the date
at random. Ncnnor claims that there is a
sort of combination lock on the weather, and
that he understands the numbers lie
thinks that he has detected sort of involved
sequence of meteorological phenomena
which he can follow out indefinitely, and so
predict the general run of weather for years
in advance, How foolish this assumption
really is, may be best seen from the results
Of the process, 1t is an amusing fact that
Vennor almost always predicts just about the
opposite kind of weather from what we
actually have at the time; and to
such an extent have his gucsses
erred from truth, that when one
of them does, by merest chance, come
right, or anywhere near right, great cry
goes up that Ncnnor is justified upon his enc
miles, and all the crcdulous part of mankind
penitently resumes its practice of cutting out
the wise sayings of the Sage of Montreal and
FASTING them where they can shine down INTO
the soul, like stars Of wisdom in this inky
night Of human ignorance. The heart of
man has always been tenderly disposed tow
ard all forms of deception, so long as
deception Came not with its mis-
sion wrlttelb--ppon its brow. Indeed,
the element Of doubt is wonderfully fascinat-
ing. We all like to daily with uncertain
ties but the moment thing becomes assur-
ed, then it loses its charm. All sorts of
charla'ans and mountcbanks have played
upon this strange weakness of human ma
ture, and among them, to-day, are the wealth
or prophets. There is something humlia-
ting in the way they hold our attention and
enlist our interest, after they have deceived
us again and again. The anomalous Wig
gins will not die out until after his second
great storm comes, or doesn't come and
then, if he makes a prediction beyond that,
he will live to see that fulfilled or disproved,
and 50 on, until the end of the chapter,
guessing and failing, guessing and coming
pretty near right, guessing hundred times
and coming just right once, but still guessing
and holding the attention of the foolish pub
lc The only wonder is, It's such a lucra-
tive and easy business, that more lazy people
are not weather prophets
| Captain Gorringe's Record.
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