New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1883-01-10
PROSPECTS FOR 1883.

PROSPECJS run 1900.
There is n superstition in many minds that
the year 1888 must bring another panic. 80 far
AS this notion rests upon the fact that 1t Is now
about ten years since the last commercial col
lapse, it is a mere superstition, unwarranted by
experience or reasoning. The attempt to trace
a ten-year periodicity in the recurrence OF COM
mercal disasters has to distOrt facts. The crash
of 1887 WAS not followed by another In lo4I,
nor was the parlc of 1857 succeeded by any
thing deserving the same name or consideration
in 1867. hor can any fixed period he suggested
which will bring into harmony the really I'M
portant disasters of 1887, 1857 and 1873. The
mere date, therefore, has neither meaning nor
weight If disaster is to be looked Tor this
year with any reason whatever it must be for
a very different reason.
Nor is there ground for such apprehension i'll
the Visible EXPANSION of commercial credits dur
ing the PAST two years. The average ofindebt-
edness has not rs yet nearly reached what may
ne termed the bursting point 1t is not any
where near rs high as it was at other times when
panics came. 1t would therefore be inferred
with reason that, if disaster should come in
1883, it would not be due to any extravaganza
expansion of credits in commercial business,
though the fact that there has been some ex-
pansion would make the effects more serious II
an explosion should occur from any other
caIse
Excessive building Of railroads has been men
toned as n reason for apprehension. 1t cannot
be doubted that great sum of money has been
unwisely and unprofiably invested in that di-
rection, as respects the general interests OF the
country, though the instances in which inGi-
vidual promoters have lost or viii lose may be
much less Numerous. II new road close to
the New-York Central should make that
property worth much less there would be a
Temporary or possibly permanent loss to some
body, even though the new road should be
largely profitable. In some instances that
could be mentioned, the apparent pur-
rose i'm building new lines was 10 cripple
older companies, ur 20 force them TO purchase
the new lines for more than their cost. But
waste and excessive competition do not neces-
sarily involve disaster. Mr.. Vanderbilt can
spcnd more money in day, without risk Of
bankruptcy, than some men could spend III
lifetime, and this country is getting rich
enough to bear without serious disturbance an
amount OF Improbable investment which
would have brought ruin If 1t had occurred
thirty years ago IL has not been claimed that
the real cost OF ii 900 OF 10000 miles of rait-
road hnilt last ycar was more than $4,000 per
mile. Only part of that cost WAS unproftably
invested. But $3.50. 100000 is less than the
average yearly addition to fhe wealth of the
rou,try hy saving. aud probably less than half
that addition. The country cannot be ruined
by wasting a fraction of half It's clear income.
Industries have got into false position, it is
true. and one Of some embarrassment Their
difficulty, however, II one OF excessive pTodue-
ton in some directions, and that tends to cheap
ness and to increase Of consumption, which,
with partial suspension Of production Tor
time. opefates TO cure the disorder. There can
hardly be any serious disaster as a result OF
tempo,ary ovcr-productiun in Il legitimate
branch of industry. II some lose, becau 80 pro-
duets must be sold choaply, Others gain in buy
ing cheaply.
The principal danger. so far as there is any
real danger, grows ont of improper and exce'-
slye speculaton The effect of such specula-
G,n mon industry and commerce, It's close
connection with financial movements. its pow
crful effect upon the stability of corporations,
have been repeatedly portrayed, 1t cannot he
denied that tho fury Of speculation which
has been Witnessed NWlluk lNt lN9b gt@t
in some departments does harm, and in
wolves risk To-: many Others besides the
gamblers themselves. 1t is quite possible that,
il banks and business men should continue to
entaugie themselves more and more in this way,
a disaster might occur.
But there arc two reasons for hoping that it
NAV he avoided. The first is that banks and
business men have had some pretty sharp
warnings of the danger. 1t would be strange
indeed il they should not take especial pre-
cautions to draw away from dependence upon
operations so plainly dangerous. The second is
that the speculative fever has about reached
the stage at which the professional gamblers
are left to amuse themselves with each other.
The fact that certain markets are no longer
governed ny legitimate considerations of value,
OF supply and demand, but by conspirng and
trickery, has become too widely known. The
failure of score or two OF spectators, II the |
banks and tho public would let them alone,
would not be a disaster to the coIntry-dnite
the contrary.