New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1883-03-31

| reporting into working order during the latter
part of the decade 1S60-70. Estimates of the
yield prior to 1866 were necessarily valueesa,
on account of the condition Of large part OF the
country, and there is strong evidence that the
returns for that year were much too low. From
1867 to 1881 inclusive, q period OF hfteen
years, the estimates of the Bureau, when cor
rected by the census reports, may be considered
substantially correct, and they form at all
events the only attainable data. During these
fifteen years, then, the yield of wheat was
4,735, 900 bushels The net exports, taken
from the official reports of the Treasury De-
partment, with flour included at 4l2 bushels to
the barrel, were /, 253, 239, 765 bushels during
the fifteen fiscal years ending June 80, 1882.
Hence there have remained for home coDsump-
ton about 1852, 100000 bushels. 1t happens
that the short crop of 1881 left almost 10 sup
ply on hand at the close of the fiscal year
1SS1-S2, and that the short crops of 1860 and
1866 had also caused the country to be sub
stantially drained of surplus wheat when the
crop of 1867 came in. Hence it is safe to say
that the actual consumption for all purposes
during fifteen years cannot have varied ma
terialy from 3,4S2, 900, 900 bushels.
The quantity used Tor seed averages l 5-18
bushels to the acre. Applying this to the acre
age sown each year from the yield of previous
years we find that the consumption for seed up
to last fall was 658, 100000 bushels leaving
for home consumption in other ways
1928, 5OO,O bushels. BY applying a ratio
of 4.3 bushels per capita to the mean Dopula-
ton of each year, we find that at this ratio the
consumption in fifteen years would have been
1882, 100, 900 bushels-a result SO close to the
ascertaned quantity consumed that 4.3 bushels
per capita may be safely taken as the actual con-
sumption in this country for food and manu-
features. This Of course takes good years
with bad the consumption is undoubtedly
larger than this average when wheat is album
dant and cheap, and lower than this average
when wheat is scarce and dear. But cOmpar-
ison year by year shows that the consumption
cannot at any time have risen above about 10
bushels for each person, or fallen below about
foIr bushels yearly.
The mean population for the current year
namely, the population of about January lis
about 5I,4GO,000. This is asccrtained by APP
plying tie ratio Of increase without mmigTa-
ton Tor the last decade for two years and II
half, and adding the immigration officially re-
ported from June 30, the date of the last CEN
sus, to January /, 1888. At As bushels per
capita the consumption for food and manufac-
lures from Tie crop OF 1882 will be
23I,17S, 900 bushels. Adding seed for prob
able acreage to he sown for the next crop of
g. 600 600 acres-the largest ecer reported
thus far-namcly, 81 700 900 bushels, we have
a total consumption OF about 296,OOO,OOO
bushels, leaving, from the report crop of 1882,
2OG. 900, 900 bushels for expert. Tho actual
exports OF wheat and iloIr fIom July l to
March /, as officially reported, were equivalent
to llG,97IS7I bushels OF wheat. Hence there
would remain about -, 600, 900 bushels to be
exported between March 1 and July /, Or to he
carried over into another crop year.
If the wheat OF last year had been of good
quality, there would be nothing extraordinary
in carving over 100000 bushels or more,
10 replcnish the greatly depleted stores in the
country. The supply on hand was very much
les, than usual last July, and some addition
would i'm any case he made. But the yield last
year was not altogether Of the best quality, and
on that account less would be willingly added
10 the stores retained. The exports during the
rest of the fiscal year will he determined
largely by the price, and the recent tendency
of the markets has indicated disposition on
ine part of farmers and other holders to lessen
their stocks on hand before the new crop be-
Gins to come forward. With free exports dur
ing the next three months, the quantity carried
over would not he larger than the country
would ordinarily retain from large crop.