The Sunday herald. [volume] (Washington [D.C.]) 1866-1887, 1883-02-25
WAR PROSPECTS IN EUROPE.
what Forces work for poace and what
for war.
Avery acute Paris correspondent writes a.


for War.
very acute Paris correspondent writes as
follows
do not believe in war this year, although there
may ue alarming black specLs ON the horizon SIN
CircuWs aud accidents may upSst the soupdtst
calculations. William Of Ilohcnzoletn may die, but
the old emperor is not In any immediate peril aud so
long as lie lives peace viii he maintained between
Russia aud Germany Nes,hc Is old aud feeble, Older
and lrebler than NJ. Grtvy, who o. falling, Of the
Presidents approaching death there arc it Is true
signs; vet there were no signs OF SkOheen a an
preaching death In 1889, aud " the assassination
vi this man which adjourned q catastrophe for the
General u vs. now believed was assasiuatcd nOwith-
standing the oHcial statement that he succumbed to
an attack OF cerebral congestion. And the assassns
are declared TO be known, and the names Of those who
paid for the preparation OF the ctme are known at
the Third section, and VI these last not In such
high places they would already have swung on the
EnllOws or have been made To- disappear noseessly
The death OF Skobeletf stopped the Slav movement
year ago, but the demise Of the German Emperor OF
another Nhlst attomp upon the NE VI the Car may
preclpiiatc 10 now About the situation In Eastern
aud central Europe with which Franco VIII have
nothing whatever To say, I may say few words.
Germany is uneasy; q Crhcow Journal the Nora Re.
fDTIuu, gave the first alarm hy Announcing that
10000 l'nssiahs were encainpcd near Warsaw, he-
tween W ola ana P0waski; that an intrenChed camp
was being established ut Groduo; that the artil-
lrtlmcu and caNalrymcn who were far
luuch had been ordered tn reion their rcpi-
mcuts, aud that the reserves were on the eve of
mobilization. This newspaper was IN possession Vt
the intended plan oi campaign, which was 60 begin
rrsemscl, Ctacow, aud Tarnovic which would inter-
ccpt AL teegraphic and railway communication with
Poland after which tho Cossack hordos would spread
terror and desolation everwhete, and prevent the
ohk VI the territorial forces while the heavy
artillery with It's sapners and engineer troops, and
the Infantry 1T mass, would prepare intrenchmonts
and Qualifications. The U1geiie de Toss, and later
the NATIONAL gazette, reproduced this article the
stock market feand tue ohClal newspapers took adj
vantage Of the panic 10 Insist not only that the Ger
man governments hut It's faithful ally, Austria,
should rroNide for emergencies by Increasing the
effective strength NJ their forces uf foot and horse
along the Russian frontier. But at Vienna there was
hesitation; the ut Austrla's subjects hate Rus
STA, but al the same time, do not lave Germany aud
above all are disnclned To Increase military estate
shment which think Is only destined to he the
cat's-paw OF their beloved neighbors.
Is Russia really arming2 Against whom and with
what intent Is she arnlngY May not the alarm.
cry Vt the Polish newspaper be only one OF those
"reptle's cries which bismarck employs so oftenY
Now that the French hugaboO has been buried In the
person Of VI. Gambetta may not the Russian buga-
boo he the Chaucellur's trump card asked the
lenheSe lourhalstSl Recommending the rulers ot
their country not To- let themselves he drawn lncon-
slderately Into any perilous adventure. Berlin was
NOT pleased ut vienna attitude aud Count Her
bert Won bismarck was sent to Vienna as the reprs
sentative Of his lustrous father and with the mission
ot bringing Count knlnOky to different view OF the
advantages ot Horman unity. Count Nalnoky is not
Prince Hsmarcks frlend he thinks his country
ought not to he pledged to follow Germany's lead,
unless tla policy he favorable to Austrian interests
The Count is not, Were his predecessors Baron
Haymerle aud Count Andrassy, merely Russophoblc
and, In hatred NJ Russia, ready to sacrifice every
thing else. lie Is not nearly supple they, and
therefore bismarck IL sOrey anxious to ascertain
whether the compact which expires In 1854 will Ue
renewed. This anxiety rs apparent from the tone
OF those newspapers which are inspired from
onicial sources, and SO u Is that the Cologne
GdEsHe has been authorized to declare
that Austria has much more TO gain than
Germany from prolong1tion of their alliance, the
business OF when reasoning vs. not absolutely ad :
mitted hy the Austrans. The situation has changed
since 1879, and, though the Germans affect to
snccr at Austria and her army 1t Is less certain
that she can put Into the field million of men with
whom enemies aud friends must reckon, aud her
statesmen think the moment propitiOus to emancIpate
the monarchy from Prussian surveillance. Resides
this there Is jealousy of Germany, which seeks to
absorb Austra's German speaking provinces, and II
cooling down OF the jealousy toward Russia, which
cOves nothing belonging to Austria, but OH the con-
traIy, offers fraternny tn divide their neighbor'
(Turkey'sl possessions, without collision, all Of
which Is vastly dspleasing to the Chancellor who, IL
the bargain be struck without his intervention can
not plead the doctrine of compensatons In his own
behalt, and every day experiences new difficulties in
governing the empire. rhe :echslag is not as ohe-
dent 1t used to be; all his projects of law are sys-
tematicay defeated; one bin at the close of the
last session, only fOrty-nne Conservatives rallied
to this programme, and therefore 1t became necessary
to hold mp the spectre of foreign peTis. exhibit the
danger of Russian invasion, III order to reply to
thoSe VINO camnr Tor reduction In tho expenses Of
the German army, ami this chord Is ALWAYS sensitive
The poemic was violent in November and Deem
Der, and, though Interrupted by the holidays is re-
newed now with more violence aud by more author
itative organ. The Grtnzboten, of Lepsic, begins
the alarm, and when Dr. Busch puts pen to napcr
all men know thatit is by order Of him to whom he
used to he confidential secretary The Doctor declares
that the new compact must not only guarantee the po-
litca bat also the economical solidarity of the two
empires, which shOnld, by customs treaty, com =
plete the effects of The military convention. THIS
arrangement has always been a hobby of the Prince
who, since the establishment OF Gernany's inCon-
teStabe military supremacy in Europe, dreams AN
extension Of her inlluehce In trade and finance IL
was seductive dream, as its realization would draw
within the German orbit not only the vast
of the Hapsburgs, but all those newly einancpated
States OF the Balkan peninsula which Austro. Hun
DTOlOspg Combined II In mn
nipuation of the Danubian regions, whi,h must put
the great river under the domination of AUSTRIA the
success OF tins project would constitute i'll the centre
of Europe, from the Baltic To the lEgean, political
and economical power of which the force of attraction
upon IT'S feeble neighhors must he irresistible. 1t
was gigantic conceptions but IL Is sti in the do
main Of speculation; the anity of the two empires
cannot triumph over the antagonsm of the CONNER
cal Interests of their subjects. The nsinuatiOns of
the GTeHsboten are That tue Chancellor caresscs mis-
dream, and that Tho Austrans very unwise in
their hesitation. Yet viii nor the Austrjnns he
frightened The Slays, whose influence H. ON the ill.,
crease on both banks Of the Lestri, remember the
SOleuereta, while the partisans OF Hungarian
In the Pesth Parliament, have Inscribed On
their programme the establishment OF u Gus.
toms league between tie two factions of the
empire, and the exclusion Of any third party. The
dispositions manifested by these two factors, before
which the German element seems to give way 40 not
indicate any tendency allow themselves TO he alb
Evidently the Chancellor considers situation to he
extremely critical and therefore tries to scare the
Ausrlaus Into renewal of the riparte alliance, at
the same time cOquetting with Russia in preparation
for an Austrian refusal. How all this win end 1t
would be rash to say. bismarck would like u war,
provided Germany could remain merely a spectator,
but he viii try to avert war IL Germany risks being
drawn into it, He has SO far failed in his efforts
pit Russia against England on the Egyptian question,
hut there are other questions than Egypt The Rus
sian nationalsts have come to the conclusion that
interfere about Egypt would simply be 10 play Ger
many game. The Balkanic Interests, of which no
one seemed Ia think dnring the first period OF the
Egyptian crisis have reganed their empire over the
Imagination of party instinctiveY hostile TO Ger
many. Complete absentiOn, or the complete liberia
ton of the Southern Slays Is the platform of group
ot politicians who, In spite of administrative OsCla
tons have never ceased to be the COndants and real
conhselors OF the Car, Gen. IcnatieH' system Is
not nearly so exploded as the Berlin press pretended
some months hack, hat The moment has not Yet come
for It's application Russia has renowned none of her
aspirations, hut she bides her time and, until breach
he made between those two powers whose alliance
alone can thwart her projects, Russia will not again