Daily Los Angeles herald., 1883-10-24
TINE FASTEST POSSIBLE rRorrIR.
How Fast Horses win Ultimately
Trot, and when the Maximumiwill
be Reached.
lNem York sun |


How fast will the fastest possible trot.
ter eoy What is the highest speed that
can ever be attained by the American
trotting horse for distance Of one miller
These are questions which two we'll
known scientific men, Prof. William III.
Brewer, of Cincinnati, and Mr.. Francis
L. Nipher, of Missouri, have lately en-
deayored to answer in three papers con-
tributed to the american Journal Of
Science. The first OF these articles, by
Prof. Brewer, appeared In April. The
contributions of Mr. Nipher are pub
lisbed in the numbers for July and Au-
nst.
Prof Brewer publishes tabloshowing
the number OF trotting horses which
have attained or surpassed various rates
of speed ranging from 2:30 TO 2:ll for
series of years extending from ls43 TO
1882. From this table it appears that
in 1913 there was only one horse that
had trotted mile in 2;30 or better; in
1853 the number had increased TO Ia; in
1868 to 50; in 1873 to 1885, in 1882 to
1853. The table also shows that up to
1882, 495 horses had trotted mile in
2;25 or better; 274 In 2:23 or better; 1866
in 2;2l or better; go in 2;l9 or better; IL
in 2:l7 or better, and 5 In 2;l5 or better.
~ leave IL TO mathematicians, said
Prof. Brewer, in reference to this table,
ito plot the curves which Immediately
suggest themselves, to determine how
fast horses will ultimately tfot, and
when this maximum will be reached"
Mr.. Nipher has undertaken the task
thus suggested. His first conclusion,
as stated in the July number Of the
american Journal OF Science, was that
the maximum speed to which the Amer
lean trotting horse will constantly ap-
proximato, but never reach, Is one mile
In 92 seconds, or 1882. He also con.
cludes that the time OF the trotting
horse will be reduced to within one sec.
ond Of this figure in $50 years after
the year 1860, that 10 TO say In the year
Of our Lord 2l20. Mr.. Nipher does
not claim absolute precision for his re.
suits, und says that the maximum speed
may possibly be as great as 100 seconds.
In the course Of ten years, however, he
thinks the limit can be fixed with &c.
curaoy, and he Ia quite sure that eventu-
ally the maximum speed of trotting and
running horses will differ only by few
seconds.
In his last article Mr.. Nipher states
that he hns made new calculation by
mathematical instead OF graphical meth.
DDS, and has thus obtained 81 seconds
instead of 90 seconds as the most prob
able figures for the minimum time Of
trotting mile. The probable error Of
this value, he snys, Is not over four
seconds, and 1t is likely that the running
horse will cut his record down by five
seconds, so that is probable the trotter
will finally surpass the running horse.
II this prediction is verified, the in.
habitants Of the United States in the
twenty-third century will have horses
that can get over the ground by means
of an artificial gait faster than by a ma.
tural gait. We believe that all writers
agree that running is natural to horses
while fast trotting Is not. Mr.. Nipher
states, however, as q well-known fact,
that some herds of wild horses on the
plains were natural PAGERS, 80 fast and
steady that they nearly all preserved
their pacing gait even when pursued by
the best running horses. He speaks Of
one large white Texan PAGER that never
could be caught.