Oxford Democrat. [volume] (Paris, Me.) 1833-1933, 1883-01-23
THE CANADA WEATHER
PROPHET ANSWERED.

. The weather prophet, calling h'mseli
Prof. Virgins of Ottawa, Csnada' who
recently wrote to President Arthur pre-.
dieting = great storm on the ilth OF
March, 1888, has been replied to oy
Gen. Hazen, Chief Of the United States
Signal Service. Gen. Hazen says:
at is absolutely impossible to predict
q storm for more than few days In adj
vance. The information cannot be too
widely distributed that no one can
foretell even the general character OF
coming season, much less the occurrence
Of particular storms in that season. IL
is possible that the advance Of our
knowledge may at some time enable US
to predict the weather for many days in
advance, but this is not possible at the
present time. Meterology is yet in its
infancy, and no one is yet able to antic-
ipate the occurrence Of meteorological
phenomenon for more than a few days,
q week at most. If any one will take
the trouble to verify the weather predic-
tons which in these days are so frequent-
ly made by the actual weather expert
eaced. he will find that about half OF
them are fulfilled and half fail. When
given prediction is fulfilled it is often
made a matter Of marked comment,
while the unfull6llment of q similar pre-
diction at another time is passed over in
silence. The impression, therefore, pre-
walls that reliance can be placed upon
the forecas,ings Of weather prophets, but
this impression will be removed by any
one who will give attention to the sub
ject. A series Of simple guesses. based
upon no reasoning whatever must be re-
garded as equivalent to guesses and as
having no value whatever. All predic-
tons Of the weather 20 be expected in a
month or more in advance, whether
based upon the position Of the planets or
OF the moon, or upon any supposed law
of periodici,y of natural phenomena or
upon any hypothesis whatever which to-
day has its advocates, are as unreliable
as predictions of the time when the end
Of the world will come.
There is difficulty in refuting the
assertions of those who pretend to fore
tell the weather since their predictions
frequently relate to occurrences which
a,e almost sure to prove IN part as fore
told. Thus the prediction of early snow
in the northwest in August or September
is a very safe one to make. il one claims
the right to test it BY the weather re-
ported at any one town in the North
western States or Territories or adjacent
British territory. Similarly the predic-
ton OF a storm in March is quite GER
tain to be fulfilled.
During the past ten years the num-
Der of storms which prevailed in this
country in March has averaged twelve,
varying from ten in 1881 and 1882 to
eighteen in 1876. Some Of these have
been very severe, and it rarely happens
that the month Of March passes in any
year without the occurrence Of one or
more storms accompanied by high winds
upon the Atlantic coast. Undoubtedly
in March. 1888, there will be storms Of
some severity, and some persons will DC
found who will notice the storms which
come the nearest to March llth and
claim that Mr.. Virgins prediction was
verified, only tina, it wa, day late or a
day early, or it was not quite so severe
as anticipated, or moved in slightly
different path, or in some way differed in
detail from that described. but that it
was sufficiently near to en,itle the author
to high rank as prophet"