Savannah morning news. [volume] (Savannah) 1868-1887, 1883-12-11
Rradstreet.s Estimate.

1sS3-'S4. This publication enjoys a repu-
tation for accuracy and its estimate
therefore will be received with consider
able interest In connection with the
1881 estimate there is a review OF cot
ton reporting. According to this review,
nothing like accuracy. relative 10 esti-
mates. was ever reached before last year,
and then only by BrElstreefs. 10 sho"
the unreIiabilitv Of the reports OF the De-
partment Of Agriculture the NoVem Der
December estimates Of the department
are given from 1885 70 $50, inclusive. In
twelve Of these fourteen years the crop
was underestimated on an average about
Is per cent. One year it was over esti-
mated 12.5 per cent. another year Oh,
and one year. 1874, the estimate was
about correct. The department IN lsSo
was further out OF the way in its estimate
than 1t was in 1866. showing that it had
made no progress towards accuracy. In
1873 the Cotton Exchanges OF New
Orleans. Memphis, Charleston and other
cotton centres. began the work Of cotton
reporting. They met with such little sue
cess that they abandoned the undertaking
in ISs2. Their estimate for 1850 was -
per CEN. under what the crop proved to
be. The Financial Chronicle began the
work Of cotton reporting soon after the
war. but its success was not encouraging.
Il reached the conclusion that correct
cotton crop estimate could only be reached
through a correct record Of the weather
throughout the entire cotton season. The
Chronicle within the last few years has kept
such record, but il appears that it has
not ALWAYS furnished data upon which to
make a correct estimate. In 1852 Brad
straits began a new method Of getting
data on which to base an estimate. In
preparing its December (1SS2) report cor
RESPONDENTS were asked TO give returns Of
the total Weld in each county. SIN re-
sDOnse detailed estimates were received
from j69 out Of the G42 cotton-growing
counties cultiyating over 800 acres each.
The returns summarized pointed TO
Weld Of 8. IS. 900 bales. The actual yield
was G.g92. 900 bales, thus revealing that
the business men Of the South were in
their 1852 returns in the neighbOrhOOd Of
: per cent. out Of the way as in 1881"
BrQdStreerS concludes that business
men Of the South in sending returns by
counties cOnscienti0usly underestimate
| the total Weld : per cent. In making an
estimate for ISS3-'S4. therefore, the method
Of 1882 and 1883 was followed, and per
| cent. was added 70 the result shown by
/ the returns. Replies were received from
| 62G OF the So counties in the cotton area,
aud an average OF > replies came from
each county. The conclusion which
/ BradsfreerS reaches is that the probable
total Weld will he j,B92, 900 bales,
| or decrease Of Isl per cent. as COM
/ pared with last seasons crop. 1t is a
matter worth noticing that, dropping out
the war years, from the season Of 1S44-45
/ to 1SS2-S3. inclusive, there were % seasons
/ i'm which the crop exceeded that of the pre-
| viOus season. and that the average excess
/ was about II per cent, and there were II
| seasons when the yield fell below that Of the
| previous season, and the average decrease
was very close to - per cent. The range
! of the increase in the good seasons was
| from . to y per cent. and the range OF
! the decrease in the bad seasons was from
3 to 46 per cent.
There is a good deal Of speculation re-
/ specting the present crop. The views Of
factors and buyers have changed consider
ably within the last month. 1t is believed
/ the crop will be much larger than was an
/ ticipated At the beginning OF the season.
| Rcagan's Interstate Commerce Bill.
One Of the important measures that
/ Congress will be required to consider is
/ that providing for government control of
/ Interstate railroads. Mr.. Reagan, Of
| Texas. is the champion Of this measure,
I and he has already urged it upon the at
I teutiOn Of three Congresses. 1t passed
I the House in the FOrty-fifth Congress, but
met with little encouragement in the
| F0rty-siXth and FOrty-seventh Congresses,
| for the reason that the committee which
/ had it IN charge was not friendly to it.
/ In the present Congress Mr.. Reagan, in
/ all probability. will be the Chairman Of
the Commerce Committee, and will see
| that it Is reported early in the session.
| The purpose of the bill is to prevent
unjust discrimination in freight rates by
/ Interstate railroads. BY pooling and by
discriminating freight charges the great
trunk lines are able to inflict incalcula-
| BILE damages on the business interests Of
I the country. The fayors granted to the
Standard oil Company by the railroads,
/ for instance, have about broken down all
| the rivals Of the Standard, aud made that
| company one of the most tyrannical and
/ oppressive mOnOpolies in the country.
/ Other instances could be mentioned where
| the determinations Of the great railroads
/ have wrought ruin to legitimate business
/ enterprises. Mr.. Reagan does not propose
/ to fix traffic and travel rates. His
object and aim is to protect
/ interstate commerce and shield
| legitimate business undertakings from the
hostile acts of powerful railroad corpora
I tons. There would be no necessity for
such legislation if there were free compe-
/ tition among the railroads. Competition,
I however, is destroyed by the pooling sys-
| TEN. When the Northern Pacific was
| completed it was thought there would be
/ cheaper freight rates between the ATTAIN
tic and Pacific oceans. Before the cele-
brated last spike was driven in the North
ern Pacific, an agreement was made
which retained the old monopoly rates.
The bill will undoubtedly meet with the
strongest kind Of opposition.
Ambitious Mr.. Barker.
Mr.. Wharton Barker, Of Philadelphia,
known to fame as the author of the scheme
10 get rid Of the surplus revenue by dis