Savannah morning news. [volume] (Savannah) 1868-1887, 1883-07-18


months have marked a period of almost
uninterrupted decline in the price of cot
ton. During the earlier part of May
everything looked rose-colored TO the bulls
long cotton appeared almost certain to
yield handsome profit, and a terrible ex-
perience was freely predicted for the
bears.
On the contrary, the unexpected has
again happened, and the actual course of
the market has been in a direction Oppo-
site to what was anticipated by so many,
and by myself among the number.
From about II 25c. August futures in
New York have continually drOoped until
to-day they touched about 9 9Oc..
and it may be interesting to investigate
the cause Of this unseaso nable decline,
a decline which is of such vast import to
the South.
Probably one of the first and most i'm
pOrtant reasons is that the bull clique had
not succeeded at the start in securing a
sufficiently large short interest to make a
big squeeze safe and remuneratiYe. In
that case their plan would be to relax
their hold fora while at least, and by thus
allaying all incipient apprehensions of
''cOrner" serve to gradually draw in acces-
siOns to the ranks Of the again embOldened
bears.
But external influences have undOubt-
edly come to their aid in man
ner and degree probably far
stronger than they expected, and also
very likely, than they desired. Favorable
weather for the growing crop created the
impression that two weeks lost time could
be atoned for, and another monster crop
was, and is, regarded imminent. This
impression seems to have descended with
particularly crushing force upon the
European markets, which, with pre-
sumably full invisible, as well as visible
stocks on hand, and with growing faith
In the next crops magnitude, lapsed into
a condition of apathy, as though they
never intended to pay more than sd. for
American cotton any more. Again, the
political sky Of Europe has been visited
by a good many clouds of more or less
threatening aspect, and this has also had
a depressing influence.
More recently still the panic in the pro-
vision markets and the utter collapse of
powerful corners has seemed to add a
final crushing burden to the back of the
camel of bullish speculation in cotton as
well as everything else-this latter cause
probably producing at least re. of the de-
cline.
been at this time of the year for time i'm
memorial by over a cent, and nearly a
penny lower than it has been in Liver
pool. Early in 1879 August cotton went
as low as 66c.. but before the season
was over, it rose to IA sc. Compared
with this time last year 1t is now &c.
lower in New York and over I'D. lower
in Liverpool. The visible supply and
stocks in New York and Liverpool are
UnquestiOnabIy large, but not sufficiently
50 to begin to justify this enormous diff
ference in the price. Even now the stocks
in New York and New Orleans are not
unmanagable, and are continually being
reduced by export. The aggregate now
Is not very much in excess of the totals of
last year and the year before. COnsump-
ton is rapidly increasing, as it must Of
course be expected to do at such phe-
nOmenally low prices, and the trade hav
ing been buying very sparingly, must evil
IDENTIFY soon re-enter the market.
As to the next crop, no predictions
or expectations at this period are
of any value, as experience has again
and again demonstrated. The crop had
very late start subsequently favorable
weather conditions has inspired more
hope and with continued extremely good
weather, no untOward accidents, and
another fine and prolonged fall, we may
possibly make another seven millions.
But all this is still a mystery of the fu-
tUre. 1t is quite possible we may not
make six millions, and September is early
enough To begin to count on a heavy
yield. In sporting parlance, the odds are
largely against a repetition of such
weather as we had last year from this
time on.
Attempting to look at the question thus
nationally. l can really see no sufficient
cause for tine price of cotton being at its
present low ebb.
New York and New Orleans offer tempt
ing fields for an August or September
squeeze. Perhaps we may see some lively
times yet. DEMOCRTTUS.
SdrGBndh. ,IUly l., 1888.