Vermont phÅ“nix. [volume] (Brattleboro, Vt.) 1834-1955, 1883-11-16
The Tsresi,,eD,,aI Outlook.

The result of last weeks elections has nat
urally given rise to renewed speculation re.
garding the approaching presidential contest.
That the aspect of affairs has decidedly i'm
proved for the Republican party admits of no
question. Pennsylvania, which went Demo
cratic by 40, 600 plurality in 1882, goes Re-
publican in 1888 Massachusetts,, carried by
the Democrats last year, is again restored to
the Republican column. The nearly 200, 900
majority given to the Democrats by New
York year ago is practically wiped out. In
addition to this the Democrats have lost much
of what they had gained last year in Ohio,
and can hardly count upon carrying that state
in the next presidential contest. These re-
suits have transformed the Democratic conf
dence and buoyancy SO recently apparent into
an anxiety and gloom which are manifest in
the expressed views of their leaders and in
the editorial tone of their organs. The same
results have made the Republicans more ju-
bilant than they have been for a year.
On the other hand, however, the result Of
the elections in the southern states plainly
means a solid South in 1854 Mshone's de-
feat in Virginia is SO disastrous as to make it
improbable that he can carry the state against
the Bourbon Democrats next year. His pow
er seems to be broken, and he is likely to
grow weaker rather than stronger. His down
fall will tend greatly to discourage anti Bour-
bon movements in other southern states, OF
which there was little sign enough before.
No doubt Malone will make a struggle, and
there ought to be fighting chance in North
Carolina and Florida but it will not do for
Republicans to base their hopes on carrying
a single state south of Mason and Dixon'a
line. If the Republican party is to win, the
POI electoral votes necessary must be secured
from among the 248 belonging to the north
ern states.
In consequence of this state of things New
York withits 50 electoral votes, seems destined
to be prime factor in the presidential prob
lem. To the Democrats its vote is absolutely
essential to success By carrying Indiana
and all the remaining northern states the Re
publicsns could do without it but such ar
outcome is, of course, hardly within the
range of possibilities. In one view Of the
case it is fortunate circumstance, therefore
that New York is a close state, where the
balance of power is in the hands of the indie
pendent class of voters since this fact gives
assurance that both parties will see the ne
cessity of putting forward their best men fol
the presidential race.
Last weeks election in New York gave the
death-blow to Gov. Clevelands presidential
prospects, and, though he pretends not t.
know it, Ben Butler is now as dead politically
as Sammy Tilden. The New York Herald
points out the fact that since the Republican
party came into power in 1860, that state has
never been carried by Democrat who wa
not a resident. Within that period it hsi
gone Democratic but twice, and on each o.
these occasions the candidate who carried i
was citizen of the state-namely, Mr.. Sey
mour in 1868 and Mr.. Tilden in 1876. Blu
while, judging from the past, the selection
of candidate from that state seems to be es
sential to Democratic success in New York, i
does not always secure that end, since neither
Mr.. Greeley in 1872 nor General Hancock il
1880, both of whom were residents of New
York, succeeded in polling majority of it,
votes On the other hand the Republicans
have carried New York in four of the last sil
national elections, and in no case was thei
successful candidate from that state. More
over, they have twice elected their presden
without the aid of New York. These are
significant facts which have a most importan
bearing on the calculations and chances
touching the coming presidential contest
The vote of the last two years shows that tn,
state may be carried next year by either party
That depends mainly on the candidates pu
forward by each party and the principles ad
| vocAted by each