The Emporia weekly news. [volume] (Emporia, Kan.) 1881-1889, 1883-01-18
PR0sPEcTs FoRElssa.

New York Tribune: There is su-
perstition Ia many minds that The year
1883 must bring another panic So far as
this notion rests upon the fact that it is
now about ten years since the last com
mercial collapse, IL is a mere supersti-
ton, unwarranted by experience or
reasoning. The attempt TO trace q ten
year periodicity in the recurrence of
commercial disasters has TO disIOIt facts.
The crash Of 1887 was not followed by
another in 1s47, nor was the panic of
1927 succeeded by anything deserving |
the same name or consideration IN 1867, |
nor can any fixed period be suggested |
which will bring into harmony the real
~ important disasters of 1887, 1851 and
1873. The mere date, therefore has
neither meaning nor weight. If dis-
aster is TO be looked for this year with
any reason whatever, il must be for a
very different reason.
Nor is there ground for such appre
hensiOn in the visible expansion of com
mcrcial credits during the past two
years. The average OF Indebtedness has
not as yet nearly reached what may be
termed the bursting point. II is not
anywhere near US high as il was at 9th
er times when panics came. II would
therefore be inferred with reason that il
a disaster should come in 1883, ii would
not be due to any exirayagant expan.
sion OF credits in commercial bust
ness, though the fact that there has been
some expansion would make the efforts
more serious if an explosion should oc-
cur from any other cause
Industries have got into false posi-
ton, il is true, and one of some embar
rassment Their difficulty, however, Is
one of excessive production in some
directions, and that tends to cheapness
and TO increase Of consumption, which,
with partial suspension OF prOductiOn for
time, operates TO cure the disorder.
There can hardly be any serious disas-
ter as a result of temporary over produc-
ton in a legitimate branch of industry.
If some lose because products must be
sold cheaply, others gain in buying
cheaply.
The principal danger, so far as there
is any real danger, grows out of improp-
er and excessive speculation. The eff
feet of such speculation upon industry
and commerce, its close connection with
financial movements, its powerful effect
upon the stability of corporations, have
been repeatedly portrayed. It cannot
be denied that the fury of speculation
which has been witnessed during the
last year in some departments does
harm, and involves risk to many Other'
besides the gamblers themselves. 1t i:
quite possible that, If banks and bust
ness men should continue TO entanglt
, themselves more and more in this way
e disaster might occur.
But there are two reasons for hoping
that it may be avoided. The first il
that banks and business men have had
some pretty sharp warnings Of the dan.
ger 1t would be strange indeed if they
should not take especial precautions tc
draw away from dependence upon oper
atoms SO plainly dangerous. The sec.
ond is that the speculative fever ha:
about reached the stage at which the
professional gamblers are left 10 amuse
themselves with each other. The fact
, that certain markets are no longer gov
erned bv Legitimate considerations oI
value. or supply and demand, but by
conspiring and trickery, has become too
widely known. The failure of a score
or two of spectators, if the banks and
the public would let them alone, would
not be = disaster TO the country-quitC
the contrary.