Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1882-10-07
Is the Conc ct an Old Visitor?
From the New York Sun.

Astronomy Is usually reckoned an exceed
lngly exact SCIENCE and in most of its methods
and the great mass of its ascertaned facts 1t is
exact yet, as the conflicting theories and calcu-
latiOns about the great comet now visible show.
some departments Of the science are subject to
astonishing uncertainty. The opposing views
OF the astronomers as to the orbit of the pres
ent comet and the question of its identify with
the great comets Of 1880 and 1913 are likely to
lead some persons to look upon the whole sub
ject with incredibly. The trouble, however is
not that the astronomers are no better than so
many weather prophets dealing in guess work
and humbuggery. but that i'm a case like this 1t
is exceedingly difficult to obtain trustworthy
data to serve as basis for the application of
mathematical formula. What the astrOno-
mers are able to do when there is the least solid
ground to base their calculations upon Is shown
by the surprising success of their predictions of
the successive returns of Halley's comet which
has period of some seventy-five years, and is
subject to perturbing forces which it requires
an amazing process of calculation to dlsentan-
gle. In the present case the question of inter-
est is whether this comet has ever been seen in
the nelghbOrhOOd of the sun before The COM
putations made at Washington have been re-
garded as gOirg far toward identifying it with
the comets of 1890 and 1S43, which. in turn.
have been supposed to be the same as the comet
OF 1868. II these great comets are all one and
the same, and if the dates mentioned comprise
every visit that this comet has paid to the sun
since it was first seen, then, manifestly, it's pc
Rod Is growing shorter at a marvellous rate,
ana we may expect 1t to end its career by fall
ling into the sun very shortly. The possible eff
fects OF the fall of a comet upon the sun have
been frequently discussed of late though the
idea that such an accident might prove disas-
trOus to the earth is not new one, having been
entertained by Newton 200 years ago. Some
months ago. when there was a good deal of talk
about Mr.. PrOctOr's suggestion of what the
''menacing comet" Of 1880, as he STYLED it..
might do, Prof. Young expressed the hope
that If it did fall into the sun he might live to
see it. That is probably the feeling of most as
tronomers The downfall of comet into the
fiery furnace of the sun might furnish fine
spectacle, but would not be likely to hurt the
earth.
There is reason to think, however, that II the
orbit OF the present comet proves to be ideati-
cal with that pursued by the comets of 1880 and
1S43, it is not the same body Hit is the same
body, then either it has very short period and
has been Invisible at most of it's visits. or its
period has been reduced in the surprising way
before mentioned. The imprObability of such a
reduction is so great that even those who think
1t Is the same comet prefer to believe its period
has always been short, and that it has only occa-
slOnally been seen when visiting the SUM- But in
view OF the observed orbits of the comets of
1S43 and 1880. this is very improbable. The
comet OF lS4S was seen for more than six
weeks after Its periheliOn passage, and that
Of 1880 was visible for several weeks
1t Is not likely that q comet of such
brilllancy could often swing around the sun.
blazing with the splendor resulting from it's ex,
traOrdinariIy close approach to the great Iumi-
nary, without being detected. Upon the whole.
then, 1t is more likely that this comet is a BODY
following the same path as that pursued by the
comets OF 1S43 and 1880, and the fact that its
periheion passage seems to have been made at
distance certainly not less and probably
greater than theirs is another argument against
the suppositiOn that 1t Is the same comet, whirl-
Ing about the sun In rapidly narrowing orbit
preparatory to It's fall.