Savannah morning news. [volume] (Savannah) 1868-1887, 1882-11-18
The New Cotton Crnn-


The first official guess at the amount Of
the years cotton crop comes from the De-
partment Of Agriculture. There has been
q great deal OF individual and random guess
ing, based on narrow and imperfect data,
Lne estimates ranging from 6,OOO,O 600 to
lOOO,OOO bales. The latter figure is the
largest ever used In talking OF our cotton
crop. 1t exceeds by 400, coo bales the great
crop OF 1850, but the steady downward
course OF the market for the last six weeks
mas afforded good evidence that among
those who should be we'll informed of the
seasons prospects a very large crop was
expected. The departments estimate, given
10 pounds, is that the crop will be 6,723, ,661
oales OF the average weight of ASS
pounds net or at the. gross weight of
4SO pounds It will be 6,377,117 bales.
Assuming the departments estimate in
pounds to be correct, It is probable
that the number OF bales, when reckoned
up at the end of the cotton wear. will he
somewhat less than this, for up to Novem-
Der l the average weight OF the bales of
the new crop received was 496 25 pounds.
against Al 81 pounds for the same month
last year. The Texas bales averaged 525 Is
pouuds-a very unusual weight. This ratio
OF difference, IL approximately maintained
through the year, might reduce the apparent
yield below last years figures. though the
actual number OF pounds would be, OF
course, much greater.
The correctness of the departments esti-
mate Of the total yield depends upon the
correctness Of its estimate Of the acreage,
which It puts at . IS Der cent. below that OF
last year. The estimated yield per acre is
lSS bales. Should the encroachment OF
grain upon cotton lands prove 70 be greater
than the departments figures indicate, It's
estimate of the cotton yield will be found to
require modification. The receipts, more
over, do not as yet show such an increase
over last year as they ought to II
1t be true that the South really has sur
passed all her previous achievements in cot
ton raising. The FtndHcidl Chronicles tables
make the receipts for the week ending No
vember 10, 1852, ,25l, against 256, 623 the pre-
vtOus week and 24l, 73S bales two wee ks
ago, showing a steady growth In the receipts
from week to week. But the receipts from
September 1 to November 10 were only
6S5, ,9l7 bales, against 1,657, 500 bales for
the same period in 1881, al increase OF but
2S SOL bales. The total amount of cotton
in sight now is actually less than last year.
This is partly explained by the known late
ness Of the season. A wet spring prevented
early planting, aud as the fret frost Of the
season In the cotton States was reported
no longer ago than Sunday, there
has been no occasion TO hasten
the picking. The Isteness of the frost IA
vOrs the production of q large crop, as the
picking will 90 on until stopped by cold
weather. Another fact to be considered Is
that the Department OF Agriculture is very
! conservative in its guesses, generally falling
somewhat below the mark. It's early state
ments indicated a corn crop of no more
than l, 200, ,OOO, 600 bushels. Il now con-
fesses to no less than l $50. 100000 bushels.
Those persons who are still betting in the
futures" market on a crop OF 7000.0 00C
| bal S will perhaps prefer their own esti-
mste to that OF the department, merely
from fOndness for round numbers.
II is perfectly evident that the crop Is
big enough for the worlds demand and
something more. Our exports, which iu
September amounted to no more than
| lac, ,496 bales, reached for the two months OF
September and October, taken together. q
| total Of Csc, ,S06 bales, an increase of "A, ,3S4
bales over the exports of the same two
months last year. For the single week
| shipped, and the total exports to that
| date amounted to SS3 S66 bales. This
| shows that the new crop is moving
/ cut very freely, fact which is
| sufficiently reflected in the large offer
Tugs Of cotton bills. This free export OF
cotton will aid materially to give our total
exports the '1ead" for which they have re-
Gently been striving in the race with the i'm
ports. The shipments OF cotton will be
likely to continue large as long as the price
continues at its present low figure. The
stocks OF the British and Continental spin
ners are very low, being on Nov. $4,000
bales, against 222 600 bales year ago. Our
own spinners have thus far taken less cotton
since September l than last year.
Whether the crop shall reach the round
figure of 1000, 600 bales, or fall even below
the estimate of the Washington experts, II
will be large enough to have money value
of at least 1926, COO 600. or this great sum
very little will reach the hands OF the ae-
tual producers of the cotton. The factors,
the ''merchandisers," the buyers, sellers,
shippers, spinners, weavers, spectators,
and, In short, about every body but the cotton
grower, gets 8 share OF the proceeds Of the
CROP 1t is the fashion now among the new
school of economists in the South to de-
nounce cotton as the great curse Of that part
Of the country. 1t is the most ensn lr-
ing OF delusiOns, the most faithless OF CO.
quettes, always promising and never per
forming. The fault is not IN cotton but In
those who grow II. No crop can be made
profitable II cultivated In the shiftless way
in which Southern planters grow their cot
ton. Instead of 1SS pounds to the acre, 300
or 400 might be raised, giving the planter
more time and land for other crops cut OF
which he could support himself, making
cotton q surplus crop. This lesson IS being
learned at the South, though slowly. So
long as cotton IS looked on as kind OF bo-
nanza it is undoubtedly rather a curse than
q blessing.