New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1882-04-14
uyFULFJLLED PROPHECIES.

hand for what is known in England as pros
perity BUDGET. The Economist admits that the
expectations of great excess of revenue over
the estimate. which were widely entertained
wear ago. have not been fulfilled. The reve-
nue. returns have not been as favorable as the
Premier anticipated; and as the dec line Is
most noticeable in the closing quarter OF the
fiscal year, he cannot reckon upon any large
increase in the customs and excise receipts, and
is, moreover, under pledge to dispose of any sur
plus that may remain by tightening the burdens
of local taxation. Hopes based upon tenn
pOrary Improvement in trade during the autumn
have been dispelled. The revenue returns
corroborate the evidence of railway reports
and trade circulars. The country is not pros
pering. Land is passing out of cultivation;
the interests of the agricultural classes are
suffering; and the Nation is becoming more
dependent every year upon foreign supplies OF
food A commercial policy which subordinated
every interest in the Kingdom to those OF
manufacturers ard traders has reduced the
means of livelihood and promoted the emgra-
ton of skilled laborers as well az unfortunate
farmers. The exports are declining; the I'M
ports are increasing; the revenues lack elas-
ITCHY. The progressive development OF the
country, which the doctrinaires of the Man
chester school predicted, seems to have been
permanently arrested.
Financial prophets are not without honor IN
England, even when the righteousness OF their
predictions has been demonstrated by expert
ence. Mr.. Golden assumed that if one great
country were to set the example and establish
Free Trade, all the nations of ChTistendom
would fall into line and renounce " the bar
barism of protective duties" But the example
has not been followed Other nations have
reduced their debts and met their current ex-
penditures by taxing English productions, and
have developed at the same time industries OF
their Own, and diversified the means of liveli-
hood within their borders. Yet while leaders
in Parliament and the best organs oil
public opinion reluctantly concede that the
founder of the Manchester school was a
false prophet when he declared that all the
world would soon discern the folly of high
tariffs, they will not admit that ne was short
sighted as well as over-sanguine The Spectd-
tor. for example, frankly acknowledges that
the cause OF Free Trade is undoubtedly suffer
inc from the exaggerated hopes held out by
its first preachers, and that they did not take
into account the peculiar conditions under
which the question would present Itself III new
countries 1t recognizes the fact that In Obedi-
ence to political instincts community may
refuse to acquiesce in commercial policy
which economists arbitrarily assign to 1T that
Protection in Australia is protest against the
abandonment of the soil to the great sheep
farmers, and that Ireland would certainly adopt a
high tariff if her independence should be
achieved and that in new society the
culture is full of unknown possibilities and
"Free Trade seems to limit those POSSIBLE
cities to those which can be realized at the
"moment" Yet it stOutly maintains that
Mr.. Golden would have been Free Trader
even if he could have "foreseen that Eng
land would stand as nearly alone in the
world as she has since DONE" 1t con-
tends that Free Trade would have been
adopted even if the every large amount of
ignorance as TO what is for its own benefit
of which human nature is capable had been
fully appreciated.
While the prophet is still hOnOred in his
own country, predictions that are unfulflled
naturally promote scepticism. At recent bye
elections, wOrkingmen, agricultural classes and
special trades, like silk-manufacturing, which
have persisted from hamilton, have evinced
their dissatisfaction, and resolution providing
for a Parliamentary inquiry respecting the eff
fects of foreign tariffs upon English prosper
ity has received as many as eighty-nine votes
in a House of 229 members. There are many
signs of suspicion and antagonism In the coun-
try. although the Liberals have taken resO-
lutte stand and maintain an unbroken front i'll
the Commons Here and there practical Eng
lishmen are asking whether the experience
of the world may not be worth something in
the long run. They find chat the doctrinalres
are forced to admit that the intelligence" of
mankind was grossly overestimated by Mr..
Golden. They cannot help wondering whether
that was his only miscalculation, or whether
he did not overlook the fact that the develop
ment of home interests and the diversfcation
of industries are grounded in human nature.
Every year of commercial stagnation and
national depression intensfes the chilling
sense of disenchantment. Other nations have
chung to Protection and prospered; England,
confronted by a circuit of hostile tariffs, lam
cuisines. Here is fact that appeals to prac-
tical-minded people; and it is not to be an
swered by the abstract statement that it il in
variably better for nation to import any
thing and everything without let or hindrance,
although it cannot enjoy corresponding immu-
nifty in exporting.