New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1882-08-23
THE WHEAT YIELD.

PERHAPS estimates as to the wheat crop have
never been wider apart than they are now
Some excellent authorities, apparently supported
bv the Bureau of Agriculture, hold that the
Weld in 1852 will be 800, 100000 bushels or
less. while Others claiming more or less sup
mort from official returns, maintain that the
Weld will he 600, O0O,0 900 Bushels or more
The points Of difference are, first, that the out
side returns and estimates generally exceed
those of the Agricultural Bureau, and second.
that the statements of that Bureau have not
been entirely consistent with themselves. Thus
The Dt1y Commercial Bulletin, which still
insists that the yield will not be less than
j7O,OOO.OOO and probably more than
COO, 900, 900 bushels, holds that the estimates
of acreage by the Agricultural Department
are entitled to some confidence, though It's es-
innate of yield is not. Applying its estimates
of increase of acreage in 1850, 1881, and 1882
TO the Census report. 1t makes the acreage in
1852 not less than 10, 100000, and computes
the Yield as nearer fourteen bushels per acre
than any other figure, thus making
81, 900, 900 bushels. But the official bull
etin of the Produce Exchange takes very
different view, both Of acreage and of average
Weld. 1t shows that the largest average yield
III thirteen years has been 1879 bushels, and
that the acreage last year WAS much less, ac-
cording to the Bureau report, than The Conn
mercidI Bulletin supp0ses.
1t is very unfortunate that the Agricultural
Bureau has not secured a high degree of con-
fdence for its statistics. The wide difference
between its estimates and the Census returns
caused general disposition to regard its
later figures as untrustwOrthy. Yet the same
statstcian who prepared the Census repOrt,.as it
happens, had prepared the previous reports
and has prepared the later reports of the Blu
reau and tits hardly to be supposed that he has
lett different parts of his own work to conflict
with each other in n foolish and unreasonable
manner The Census returns disclosed IA much
larger acreage and yield of wheat than the
Bureau had estimated for the year 1879.
From the attempt to reconcile the Bureau with
the Census reports, much of the su bsequent
confusion has arisen. But, unless il is sup
posed that the statistician of the Bureau can
be convicted of u very palpable and shameless
act OF bad faith, it is unreasonable to aver
that his estimates for ISL or for thus year
have not been carefully corrected i'll the light
of the Census report made 10y himself.
The Bureau has not made detailed state
ment for this year, but estimates that the
crop of wheat will not be far from 800, 100000
bushels. The Commcj cial Buiicta, while
talking of 600, 100000 bushels, only gives
figures To warrant an expectation OF
oil 200, 900 bushels if the yield should prove |
the largest per Oh record, and II the acreage
should prove much larger than the Bureau .
represents All parties, however. base their cal .
culatious upon "A state of facts which existed /
prior to the prolonged Storm by which it is |
officially reported that II, 100000 bushels OF /
wheat were injured in Michigan alone In .
some localities also, the threshing, not yet i'll /
progress when either of these accounts were 7
made, has turned out much more favorable, /
and i'm others much less favorable than the /
farmers expected, and the latest dispatches .
from Kansas differ in estimates five bushels to /
the acre. which, for 100000 acres, would /
imply a difference of 2O0, 100000 bushels for /
the whole country. Evidently it can hardly be /
profitable to put much confidence in favorable /
or in unfavoIabe estimates, under such cir /
cumstances. The country has IN ample supply /
of wheat, but that is about all it is likely to
know for some months to come. At the lowest .
estimate, the country has grain enough to
meet all known or probable demands. AT |
the highest, prices would probably prove SO ]