The Republican. [volume] (Oakland, Md.) 1877-current, 1882-06-17
The Periodical Scare.

the prevailing complaint OF marc
times, is little work which L have
lately seen, published in 1875 by a
man named Benner, calling himself
can Ohio Farmer" and consisting
of series of prophecies and data in
regard to the ups and downs OF prices
what years money can be made, and
what years money is sure to be lost
in speculations IN iron, hogs, corn
and provisions. His book is dedica-
ted to agricultural, manufacturing,
mining, mercantile. industrial, finan-
cIal and commercial interests of the
United States, and is not only Curl
Gus, but worth recalling at the pres
ent juncture, because of the singular
accuracy of his predictions thus far.
According to Mr., Benner, the con-
dition of the iron trade tells the story
of the prosperity, or otherwise, Of
the country. When iron is in de-
mand and its prices are high, it shows
great internal activity, new enter
prises on foot, and the necessity for
large quantities of tools, machinery
and the like, into nearly all of which
iron enters. When iron is low the
opposite conditions prevail, works
are at standstill. labor is depreskGz
and the whole country suffers. Nj
Benner's prophecies are based on ca
tain cyclical calculations. and are
truly wonderful. They extend oyer
wide range, rising from n % 81
this last being indicated astb culmi-
mating point of our prosperty-and
to be succeeded from 81 to 81 by dull
and depressed times, whichwill Gull
inmate in the greatest pane of the
century in 81. His statemets would
seem the widest guesswor, had not
his previous representatives been so
curiously, and even in detil with a
single exception, substituted by
facts. This failure was il putting
the eliminating Of the rice of pig
iron in 1881 instead of 8. when it
really did reach the highest figure,
from which it has defined. Of
course, it may be nothing but West
ern guessing, but if it is the West
ern may be congratulated on having
beaten the Yankee at his own game,
But Mr.. Bonner does not profess to
rely upon guessing al all on the con-
trary, he lays down what he calls his
"cast-iron" law on the subject, and
which may be defined as the law of
periodicity of prices. The great pam
les, he shows, comes at intervals of
eighteen to twenty years-1Sl9, 1887,
1857 and 1875. naturally increasing
in volume with the increase in popu-
lation, in the volume of business and
in the tides of speculation. Three
good years are usually followed by
five or more bad years, which may
even, as was seen recently, be seasons
of agricultural success sn far as crnrs
are concerned. 1t is usually thought
that crops have all to do with "good''
times and dad" times, but this is
not always the case; low prices, good
crops and commercial depression,
have been part of our experience
within a few years, and some of the
causes of business troubles must
therefore be looked for elsewhere.
A theory which a speculative
friend assigns is this: That the nat
ural increase of wealth in this country
is q per cent, while the average in
terest paid upon capital all over the
country is per cent. This compels
a perpetual extension of credits, a
perpetual trading upon borrowed
capital, and panic is merely the ne
cesslty which arises at certain inter-
walls of wiping out these debts, and
beginning all over again. The best
provision for dull times or good times
is, evidently, to be out of debt, and
not speculate with other peoples
money. Moreover, whatever may
be thought of crops ordinarily, they
promise to be an important factor in
the general prosperity for the present
years and indications, surmises and
reports are watched with the most in
tense and eager interest.-Ertroct
from Jennie Wne's letter in Baltimore
american.
A bill is before the Senate and
House Committee on Post Offices. pro-