New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1882-09-05
CAUERON'S HOPE.


The series of interesting letters which we
are printing from our staff correspondent VINO
is travelling through Pennsylvania brings OUT
very clearly the complication OF the hcpdp-
ican situation in that State. III must DC APP
rorant fo every reader VINO has followed our
CORRESPONDENTS letters that the outlook Is
serious one for the Republican party. Almost
certain defeat Is before 1t unless some com
promise is reached 10y the opposing factions
We saw this in the face of Chairman Coopers
sanguine prediction of 10000 majority Tor
General Beaver Mr. Cooper has been max
ING that able claim every lew minutes loI
several months, and III accordance WIN
TIE TRIBUNE 5 invarabe custom OF giving all
sides a lair hearing, we allowed him column
of space the other day in which to enlarge upon
this credltabe product OF his imagination. but
! at the same time were unshaken III the
| opinion which we have always held, that the
| claim is grotesquey absurd. We do not believe
! for a moment that Mr.. Cooper has any nope OF
a majority quarter the size OF that. lie IL
merely carrying forward the established stat
wart policy of ~claiming everything Inc
Stalwarts are always sure " OF carrying Their
! points. 1t is impossible to find one OF them III
any campaign anywhere who has the slightest
| doubt about the success OF ms ticker. Ibis
| well simulated confidence has lis elect. III
makes the fence-sitters unwilling to get down
ON the anti Stawart side for fear OF making
mistake 1t will have some effect IN Pennsyl-
| yania but not SO much AS 1t would il MI
| Cooper's anxiety had not led him into the
blunder of putting his figures so high. There
! is palpable evidence of panic III that 4O,OOO
| claim.
| The independent claim, which our CORE
snondent has also given, is much more modest
| Their chairman does not deal III such exact fig
ures. He is willing to admit that there are
unknown quantities in the problem. He hopes
to see 100000 or $4,000 votes cast for the
independent candidate, but prudenty admits
that the dislike of giving the State over TO
| Democratic control may cause some lndepen-
dents to vote for the Cameron ticket when the
| time to vote arrives. lie points out, on ihe
| other hand, the interesting fact that 4o,ooo Oh
| the $4,000 votes cast for Mr.. W ollie last year
were polled in the twenty counties IN winch
| Mr.. Wolfe made speeches. leaving only
| 900 to come from the forty counties
| in which he did not speak. In the coming
campaign the Independents will have meetings
in every county, and they argue that If one
man could persuade so many voters TO join his
cause last wear, a thoroughly organized party
can persuade many more to join the same cause
this year, especially since the cause is repre-
sented by a strong ticket and is much more
popular than it was year ago. This Is en-
tirely reasonable argument 1t is impossible
for any party to make even an Approximate
calculation of the vote each faction Will poll
The campaign is not yet fairly under way, ana
thousands Of Republicans have not decided
which way they will vote. 1t is absurd tor Mr.
Cooper to presume to know in advance just how
every Republican IN the State will vote two
months hence. He fails to take into account
| at all the vast silent vote which is such an i'm
nortant factor in a contest like this. There is
An uncertain number which may include
thousands and may include only hum
dreds. of Republicans who will say nothing
about their intention but will go quietly to the
polls and vote against Boss rule. The mach
inc managers got an mixing of the destructive
possibilities of this vote on Saturday when they
heard from their effort to defeat Congressman
Baynes denomination. They used the full
power OF the machines, State and National,
to crush Mr. BayDe, and were able TO elect
only fifteen out of 1919 delegates. That ought
10 SnO" lhch uhdI lhc pfoplc aye lHiHhlHS lOl
themselves this year.
We do not believe Tor moment that the
Cameron managers are deceiving themselves.
They are too shrewd politicians not to take into
account all tho factors in the problem. What
they actually believe is very different from
what they profess in public. 1t seems to US
That the calculation which our correspondent
sends, in letter printed elsewhere comes
much nearer to the truth than any other which
has been put forth by either faction. Accord
ing to that the contest is likely to be an exceed
ingly close one, and if General Beaver is elected
he will squeeze in by very small plurality
The author of the calculation shows how the
Cameron leaders hope to secure that plurallty
by buying Democratic votes. This is not the
first time that this plan has been broached II