The Dallas weekly herald. [volume] (Dallas, Tex.) 1873-1885, 1882-03-02

i'm this country and Europe feel easy regard.
inc the supply. and are not anxious 10 buy,
Tie only parties who are purchasing l0any
extent are the bulls In the south Tor iulure
delivery, aud II seems that there II an effort
being made TO induce them to buy heavily
I'm November and December the rise was
predicted after the new year, then II was
postponed till February, and now ~ has
been again adjourned til May, The oxpe-
rIence of the past should be lesson to our
southern people, not to believe that the
sellers III the north are ignorant OF the
situation, and pursuing n policy that must
lead to heavy LOSES Cotton may advance,
but should It do so, then the northern
"rngsters" will have so manipulated the
markets as to reap the profits.
Bradstreets, which has always been APP
parently on the bull side, has the following:
We have carefully examined the tull and
elaborate circular of Mr.. Thomas Ellison,
of Liverpool, issued January 10th. His
statement in that circular that, with an
American crop OF $4,000 bales, the world
will have plenty OF cotton to supply all
its requirements without seriously re-
ducing the surplus stock, mas
created considerable excitement, and has
la good deal to do with encouraging the
bears to force down prices, and in lrighten-
inr the bulls. While we admit that MI.
Ellison is usually correct and careful, we
must express surprise at the figures OF sup
ply given in his January circular, especially
when compared with his own figures as
given in his October circular. The discrep-
ancy is very great. He then estimated the
supply for the year for all of Europe from
sources other than America to be:
October Actual
estimate lSS0-Sl.
East India. 10000 10000
Fgvpt ,.......... 4500W 4l2,tOO
RAIL and other places - 100000 1860, coo
Total. 100000 1,sG6,OeO
or an increase of 8 ZOO bales.
Below we show the actual increase IN I'M
ports over those of last year already re-
ceived during the three months between
October ana December 81 1851 also ELL
sons January estimate OF the increase that
will be received in the remaining nine
months of the year, say, from January l to
September 80, 1882, and also what would be
the total increase for the year
INCREASED SUPPLY OF 1SSl-SZ OVER lSoU-ol.
Ellison's esti-
Imports Oct mate Jan Total
to Dec 81. to Sept 80 for year.
East India 7oCCO 25gOOO $50 600
Brazil, etc -. 5000 $500 1l5,OOO
Total ......,166,0O 3l5,tOO on. 4oo0oo
which is 392, 900 be les more than Ellison es-
timated the increase in October, and GER
tainly seems extravagant With the above
increase the total supply for Europe for
this year from sources other than America,
would be 1852 900 bales, against l,SCj,0OO
bales in 1S30-Sl; 1,92S,OO baes in lSI9-SO;
| ,4Gi 600 bales in 1S7S-79; 100000 bales IN
lS77-7S 2,2l9,0O0 bales in 1861, and 2,2Q5,-
600 bales in 1S75-76. With such figures be-
lore us we must say that Ellison's estimate
for supply is too large. Again, in his tig'
ures of supply from America he changes
his estimate of consumption in America in
an entirely unwarranted manner; say, as
follows:
His estimate of October was 2.05(,0OO
TILES, against 1915, COO inr-tne preceding
year, or an increase of 100000 bales; while
IN January he estimates the requirements
of only $4,000 bales, and thus
increases the supply of American for Europe
by 10000 bales. This is certainly wrong, as,
by the latest information from the most
trustworthy sources, the consumption in
America promises to be at least 10000 bales
in excess of last year.
Ellison in his January circular bases his
figures OF supplies from other sources than
America, as shown above, and his figures
for supply from America, on an
estimated crop of 5,500.C00, with the
above mentioned allowance for American
requirements, and thus shows that Europe
can continue to consume, as he estimates,
Us, OC0 bales per week, ana at tne emu OF the
wear have a stock in Europe of 100000 bales.
it is evident that he has over-estimated
(even with 5,5C0,000 crop his supply from
America by 1150CO bales; and we should
also put his over-estimate of supply
from other sources at least 10000
bales, which must reduce the European
stocks to $4,000 bales, against 1,5ll coo
in 1881, $4,000 in 1880, and G67.000 bales
in 1879. This, it must be remembered, is
with an American crop of 5,50O,00O bales.
If the crop is only 5000, 600 bales, the stock
would only be $1,000 bales. We are, there
fore compelled to differ with Mr.. Ellison
when he says: Even with small Ameri-
can crop, there will be plenty of cotton to
supply the wants of consumers for the rest
of the season." and to insist that unless
consumption is materially curtailed there is
great danger of an actual cotton famine
during the coming summer and that in any
case there must be scarcity, and with this
scarcity there will be great danger of specu-
ators getting control of the market and
forcing up prices to any extent. We, there
fore, again repeat that legitimate dealers
in cotton should remember the actual ques-
ton of supply in connection with prices,
and should take advantage of the decline
that has taken place, and secure good
stock ofcotton, and thus free themselves
from being forced to pay fancy prices for
cotton during the summer.