The Rock Island Argus. (Rock Island, Ill.) 1877-1885, 1882-04-17

Ohio surplus at 13, 4s2, 600, while our es-
innate is only 7,413,00 a difference of
| over 5000, 600. So that the present com
paTative shortage is even greater; probably
nearer 10000, 600.
THE National Departments estimate
| for the crop of 1881 is also probably too
| large. As a rule its estimates are above
| those made by the state authorities, espe-
cially when estimating ahortage or par
tial failure In other words, both the
| total crop of 1881 and the present surplus
were overestimated, and hence the present
comparative deficiency is greatly underes-
| timated. All agree that the crop of 1880
| was the largest ever raised, and put it
about 4SS, 100000 The crop of 1881 was
only half crop over large portions of the
best wheat states The Ohio and Illinois
Boards of Agriculture agree with the best
| informed grain men of our respective
states in saying that it certainly did not
| exceed 350000,000 On this basis the facts
will be even more startling than those
given in the extract from the Country Gen
| hemaR In brief they are as follows:
Bushels
Crop of 1890 ........ ......,....... 4SS 600 900
| Crop of 1881 .................. $50, 900 900
Difference 1875 ooo, 900
s.Jn other words, we have 1873, 900, 900
| bushels less to export of the crop of 1881
| than of that of 1880. But of
Bushels
Crop of 1890 exported. 100 0o0, 900
| From this subtract. l3SooO,OO0
And we have only So ooe, 900
as the amount of the crop of 1881 that can
| be exported to reduce our surplus as low
| as it was July 1, 1891. But as we have
seen we had actually exported 10000 600
4 k,oc lo or
duced our stock on hand some $4,000, 600
| lower in January 81, 1882,
| THAN 1T WAS FIVE MONTHS LATER IN 1881.
"And as our surplus for export is al
ready $4,000, 900 lower than last July and
as home consumption is the same Cor
slightly increased) ever bushel we export
must be deducted from our stock on hand.
Thus far since July Cup to January 81 } we
have exported at the rate of 10, 1000, 900 per
month. At this rate we shall export
30, 000 900 by July |, and this added to
Is, 100000 already short January 81, and
we have 6S, 100000 short by July as com
pared with same date year ago. Or if we
take the department estimate of 28,00O-
900 short March 90 (and | have shown this
is too small figure) and add three and a
third months export, and we have the
shortage of 81 1888, 600 bushels.
And so it is readily seen by whatever
mode of computation we arrive at one re-
suit, that whether we figure the crops and
the exports of the two years and deduct
therefrom the comparative surplus of each
or get estimates of actual surplus from our
correspondents, or examine the visible
supply or the actual receipts in Chicago or
st. Louis as an index, we are inevitably
driven to the conclusion that by July 1,
1882, under the influence of home consump-
ton, spring seeding, and continued export,
we shall have somewhere from 60, 600, 900
to $4,000, 900 bushels less old wheat in the
country July 1, 1882, than July 1, 1881.
And, unless our total crop in 1882 con-
siderably exceeds 0,000, 900 wheat will
be very short of the probable export de-
mand for another year.
I'VE have there in brief the following
facts: First, the lowest yield per acre in
1881 of any year since the National De
partment first began to report the crops.
Second, from 120, 600, 600 to 10000 600
bushels less to spare than of the crop of
1880. Third, our real surplus all export
ed lower in January, 1881, than in July,
1882. Fourth, some 10000, 600 less wheat,
probably, in the country, July /, 1882,
than July I, 1881. Fifth, the fact that the
immense crop of 1880 ass, 000, 900 fol-
lowed the immense one of 1879 (460, 000,- !
OOO,) while the crop OF 1882,
which now seems likely to be |
fair but not large, mast .f0yloao tie shortest
crop, (per acre. oH record, with its entire |
exhaustion of all export surplus. Sixth, |
four full months yet before the new crop
can be milled for use to any extent And |
finally, the immense Increase in the annual |
export consumption of our wheat for the |
past five years, as follows Grating flour at |
Al bushels of wheat to the barrell; Sd ,000,- |
600, 80, 600, 600, 146, O00 900, IT'S, 000, 900 |
and 100000 600. According to these Of |
ffc5at figures Of oar past exports, Europe will |
want of our next crop Cat the same rate of
increase) over 200, 000,0 600. But we need
at home and must have nearly or quite
800, 600 900 for seed and bread.
Plainly, Europe will need more wheat
than we can spare for the next five months,
and, probably, even for the next sixteen
months. Most Of the wheat exported till
August must be the 'squeezings of the
sponge; the stock held by solid farmers
and knowing buyers, and held for a big
price. Plainly it would seem, the
TENDENCY OF PRICES
Will not legitimately be downward. From
Tie it facts would seem there never was bet
ter time for the bulls to manipulate a
corner or q squeeze that shall not relax its
grasp ut the close Of each month, but
shall hold tight Till after harvest. We can.
not use the coming crop till it is grown
and cut, and thrashed, and sweatcd; and
he shortage of old of good grades is I'M
doubted and very great
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