Sacramento daily record-union. [volume] (Sacramento [Calif.]) 1875-1891, 1882-03-04
omIsous INDICATIONS.

. told you SO
oDIEoUs INDICATIONS.
The official reports of the foreign trade
of the country for the past year contain
some very curious exhibits. The sudden,
heavy and sustained decrease in our ex-
ports, and the coincident increase in our
imports, indicate an unhealthy condition
of commerce. The decrease in the exports
of domestic produce for 1881 was SOL
400, 0O0 and the whole of it occurred DUR
ing the last four moaths of the year. Dur
ing the same period the imports increased
S32. 800, SIS. Now the decrease in exports
is almost confined to three heads, namely,
breadstuffs, cotton and provisions. The
export of several other articles had in
creased somewhat over 1880, and in the
case of petroleum the gain was consider
able It must, however, be said that
these gains were all made in the earlier
part of the year, and that during the last
four months the movement was steadily
and almost universally downward. The
greatest decline was in cotton, the export
of which fell off $50, 100000. In the same
period the wheat export declined Sl2.-
600, 900, that of -four 5000. 900, that OF
corn s., 600, 600, and that of tobacco 81.
500, 600. 1t becomes important to under
stand the meaning of this serious change
in the current OF commerce. The cause is
apparently complex. In the first place the
wild and reckless gambling in provisions
and breadstuffs which has been carried on
during the past two years has had a great
deal to do with it. The kind of business
which the stock-brokers of San Francisco
have just introduced to the Produce Ex-
change of that city, is responsible for the
break in the exports. Under the un-
wholesome and fictitious stimulus of this
kind of speculation, prices have been put
and kept up SO high as to be prohibitory,
and one of the results is that large pro-
portion of the surplus produce of the
But it must here be noted that the
exports have not this year so far shown
any symptoms of recovering their tone, and
this is the most alarming indication of all,
for it signifies that our foreign customers
have supplied their wants elsewhere, hav-
ing become tired OF waiting for our inflated
prices to come down. Nor must it be for
gotten that if there is this year fair har-
vest throughout Europe, the calculations
lapse unavoidable. For they have specu.
lated so wildly that they can only be saved
now by the improbable event of a sixth
bad harvest in Europe perhaps the most
unlikely thing that could be named.
With merely average crops the American
surplus will be drug in the European
markets, and then the effect will be pro-
duced Of two bad years here, because the
profit Ghich should have been gathered in
last year has been lost through the folly
and greed of our produce gamblers. The
same initiation of prices flor of course a
movement OF this kind cannot be confined
to one or two staples, but affects the whole
market just as the condition of the north
end stocks on the Comstock used to do)
caused an increase in the imports, which
also had its influence in further democrat
izing the market And as the Tariff shuts
us up to all these internal agencies, and
prevents us from eounterbalancing them
by our foreign trade, the result is a kind
OF CONFUSION.
At present there is some tendency to a
decline in prices, but it has not become
widespread enough to justify the conclu-
sion that the end of the adverse movement
is at hand. The official statistics for the
first month of the present year do not show
any change for the better in the condition
of the exports, nor indeed can this change
for the better be expected as yet, If it
comes at all. The experience of last year,
however must convince all who observe
the tendencies of commercial events care
fully that we cannot afford to play with
our foreign trade, and that We can least of
all afford to gamble with it. Chicago aud
st. Louis and Cincinnati have been re.
sponsible for great part of the decline of
our exports thus far. They have been SO
absorbed in getting up "corners that
they have forgotten that the prime necee-
sity of their market was to dispose of their
surplus in Europe. They have fallen into
the mistake of supposing that they could
always dispose of their surplus, and now
they realize that it is possible to destroy
their own market. There is always a dis
position among men to believe that exist
ing conditions will be permanent, but if
ever there was what should have been an
Elective guarantee against that delusion,