New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1882-09-08

The excess of production over exports, In the
three years ending with the crop OF 49, was
sIG,76G292 bushels, or 272, 76l yearly
for consumption and seed. Allowing for known
increase of acreage and population, the home
consumption should have been about
PSI zoe, 900 bushels in 1SSO-'S1, and about
2SS 900 900 bushels last year. These figures
would leave Il surplus of 3l,2l3254 bushels
at the end Of the year 1850 81, in excess Of the
stock held at the beginning OF that year, which
accords closely with the trade statistics which
showed that nearly jO,OOO,OO0 bushels were
then on hand. And the consumption and exports
for the last year amount to I2I,11O,OOO
bushels. so that, if the yield Of 1881 was
1000. 900 bushels that quantity and the sur
plus 3 | OO0, 900 bushels OF 1850 would be ac-
counted for within $500, 900 bushels. Any
smaller estimate of the yield last year, such as
the Agricultural Bureau has made, involves
the necessity of believing that the usual re-
serve of wheat and flour in the country at the
end of Il crop year, about 2O,O0O,OOO bushels,
was depleted July to that extent, ana all
the known facts 90 to prove that the reserve
held was fully u, OOO, 900 bushels
Allowing for increase of population and
acreage during the coming year. the home con-
sumption cannot be expected to exceed
29G, 900, 900 bushels. \ little wheat has been
and may yet be used for feeding, however,
in places where corn is scarce and dear until
the new crop of corn is available, so that about
100000, 900 bushels may be allowed for home
consumption. The reserve on hand, being Il
little depleted and generally of inferior quail
ity, may be strengthened by the addition of
100000 to 20,000,000 bushels of new
wheat without real waste. But beyond this we
have to find market for $50, 100000 bushels
if the crop is only 100000 900 bushels, or for
2SOO00, 900 bushels ii the largest guesses
prove true. With anything like average crops
in Europe, no such quantity has ever been ex-
ported rs 1oO,0O0OOO bushels, and larger
surplus would call for exports exceeding those
of the worst years of disaster in Europe.
1t is measurably certain already that the
yield III Europe is to be nearly up to the aver
age. The Mark Lime ETpre,S, having returns
from 251 points, estimates that the yield on
3.152, 900 acres in Great Br tam will average
twenty-six to twenty bushels, or from
$1,000, 900 to S5,OOO,OOO bushels, that
1903. 600, 900 to JOG, 100000 bushels will be
required from other countries. During twelve
months ending July 81, the actual imports were
US,bOD,OOU bushels OF wheat, DcSlutS nearly
IL ,OOO, 900 cwts of flour. Apparently British
requirements will be less than actual imports
last year. The crop of France is now est-
mated at 2s3, 100000 bushels, which is
WITHIN 100000 bushels of the quantity re-
quired for consumption but stocks are light
and may need to be increased to some extent.
In Spain there has been considerable injury, and
imports of 2l,2SO,0O0 bushels are judged
necessary. I'm Switzerland the usual impO rts,
about 100000 bushels are expect ted.
Germany rs whole Is said to have IN average
crop. but the yield in the Grand Duches is I'M
usually large, as it is expected TO be IN Euro
pean Turkey. In Austria good yield is ex-
pccted except in Galicla and Bohemia, where
the crop is short. Sweden and Norway report |
a fair yield but the returns from Holland are
conflicting Russia has IA fair yield IN the |
northern but considerably less than an average |
yield in the central aud southern provinces. |
On the whole, the situation in Europe does not |
now render it probable that the deficit to be met
will be as large as that of last year The |
only advantage to be expected this year, in |
comparison with the last. is that the small sur |
plus shipped from Egypt may be cut off, and |
the possibility that shipments from India may |
be interrupted. But this is improbable ship |
ments from India are likely to increase. |
The conclusion to which this review points is |
that there is likely to be considerable surplus of