Daily Kennebec journal., 1882-12-20
War Probabilities.

Coming events cast their shadows before.
and thus the probabilities of war are deter
mined with at least weather wise precision.
Constantly lowering above every land is the
war cloud, biding its own time Of explosion,
and fastening the conviction that nothing is
more certain in the lite of nation than war
Society may change its forms, but not its
essential nature. which is one of antagonism
1t makes room for itself by clearing the forest
of wild animals and Indians. and when this
vent is closed. it returns upon the question
of its own organization, class against class.
and party against party, the contest being
either over the spois, or the opportunity at
forded by place and power TO secure them.
In free system struggle of this character
10 entered into at first commercial spec
ulaton, but to the extent that exclusive
privileges are acquired, the desire increases
to make them permanent. and thus society
drifts towards a military establishment with
slow but unerring steps.
The actual wars in which the United States
have heen engaged were over the possession
of the land. In the distributions of this land
they have invited every one to participate.
and, for the une being. have disarmed hos
tiity bota at home and abroad. But since
the prime factor of continued peace is a wide
frontier and plenty Of room, it follows, that
our excessive liberality only hastens the
period of adversely. When there 10 no more
land to give away its value will be enhanced !;
it will gradually become the property Of the
monied few. resulting at last in bioodshed
over its redistribution and repossession. The
difficulty of disposing of farms in the East
ern States is notably becoming less year af
ter wear. and BY the close of the present
century, great change will be manifest in
the tenure of landed property. and in the dis
position of the population to hold on to 1t.
If these speculations are without immediate
practical value, it is not for want Of history
and precedent. We surely cannot have so
soon forgotten how a whole section went into
war to get away from Union with which Its
peculiar interests were no longer identified.
It was the first issue of the kind, but is it
likely to be the last? And is the adjustment
of the first issue so entirely satisfactory to
the discomfitted States as to preclude all
ideas of reclamation. indemnity, or revenge,
when a favorable opportunity occurs?
Presidential election is equivalent to revo-
luton when the disbursement of $500, ,000,0Vo
q year goes into doubtful hands; and the risk
10 intensified by the chance Of some one being
counted in or counted out in the struggle for
possession. If any one else can figure out
peace and quietness in the near future, let
him 60 ahead. cannot.
To appearance, Europe is under bonds to
keep the peace, but in reality it is in strait
between two, whether to fight at home or
abroad. England and France chose the lat
ter, and they are allied against possible con-
tingencies. France is approaching the Brit.
ish system; Great Britain the French, and
the twain may yet be one. Russia and Ger
many are much engaged at home. But 1t is
impossible to keep their forces unemployed
if either is to retain military renown, and
therefore a raid upon the hapless Turk 10 un-
avoidable, with the usual ENHANCEMENT OF
the Eastern question. Now, in 90 far as Rus-
sia and America have been the determining
factors of the present century, it may be an
kicipated that not only will this relation con-
Time, but that the one will become the ulti-
mate guaranty of the other. American en-
n:sptise received its fret stimulus from Rus
~ and the American Union received strong
rl!s ofs rom Russia, when it needed Il the
Serns.,v y cannot make light Of these in
Go oaa ~ obligations, since We are By
coask ~ -. csrtAin Of the Pacific
sl' 49, ef ths Pacific States. In