The Dallas daily herald. [volume] (Dallas, Tex.) 1873-1887, 1882-11-17

little more
II is just possible. therefore that with cror
ot o, $4,000 bales Europe may receive less Amer,
lcan IN lSs.-S than she did in lSSO-Sl, while
even with crop of 7,OOlOoO she would not rel
mach mo'e than she did in that season Ii il
All a matter OF price; at 6d per pound cotton
moves out OF sight rapidly; at al Ii disappears
slowly, for the simple reason that at the lowe-
price consumers of cotton and distributors OF
goods lay In stocks, while az the higher price
lhey reduce their holdings TO the loves. pns,i-
Ole compass. II was the ignoring OF this eco.
nomieal truth that led so many people aSlray
last seasOn.
PRICE WILL HAVE NvcH TO DO WITH rHE SUPPLY
FROM INDIA
Last season the Import into Europe WAS l. 657.
wv bales but this total included 81 least 10000
oales Kept back out OF the previous crop, owing
70 the low prices current in April, May and
june, ISL, With large American crop II Is
hard ~ r'' t''qt Sr-l's viii move 10 Europe as
'' tt last especially as
ciJCS repetition
o me At' bestowed npOn them
nat Mhuts "u-a .4t"S - American and other
speVulalOrs. l. Is hot unreasonable, therefore,
70 calculate that a. least as much cotton will be
kept back as was retained the season before last
In which case the import into Europe I'm 1857 81
VIII not exceed LIS 1910 bales The most eur
rent estimates OF the Egyptian crop range be-
tween 10000 and 1850 900 cantars, or from
about $4,000 10 S2) coo bales of ESQ pounds each,
against 10000 last season. These figures may
have TO be changed later on, but at the moment
S@OOt0 bales Is by the most competent authori-
ues considered large enough estimate OF the
probable import into Europe for the season
Last season the Brails sent I06 90 bsles against
Ii9 600 in lSs0-Sl, and this season 1t is expected
that the supply will reach $1,000 bales From
smyrna, the West Indies etc, the imports will
PROBABLY not vary much from the quantity re-
ceived lest season l2lQQ0 bales, against III, 600
in lSS0Sl.
The average weck.rate Of consumption last
season was about 20 500 bales in Great Britain
and 60,0,0 on the continent making total OF
$1,000 for all Europe As the great markets OF
the east appear TO DO oyerstOcked with goods. it
may be that the requirements of English spin
ners for the new season will not mat rally ox-
ceed those of the old season. but continental
SINNERS viii, IN all probability increase their
consumption iuliy per cent Perhaps, for all
Europe there Will be wanted an average of l3l .
UOo bales OF 400 pounds per week. This real de.
hVerles may exceed but they ale scarcely likely
TO fall short of this estimate
Inc season before last spinnerS increased
their stocks ut the Mills last season they re-.
duced them. This season we have assumed
that the deliveries and consumption will lo the
snme-that is, that no alteration will he made in
the surplus at the mills
Bearing in mind the fact that European spin
nerS lit ID smaller stock AZ the mills than they
did twelve months ago it is apparent that an
American crop Of $500 COZ TO 6,gOU,O00, coming
after one of 5,l35,O6 would about restore he
stocks Of the world to the aggregate touched ~
the end OF September, 1881, but would leave a
deficiency in respect Of American and Egyptian.
The outlook for consumers Is, therefore,. salts
factory, as il may be taken for granted that,
with such supply prices in 1888 viii be lower
on average, tnan IN any of the past these sea,
sono, IN which they were for middling uplauds,
cad, CID, and 3l-32d., respectively
INAUGURATION OF THE SIZE or THE ANERIC AN
CROP.
IN some quarters 1t is suspected that the size
OF the American crop is being greatly exaggera
ted, and that instead of being eco 10 200,
COO, TO say nothing Of $50 600 il will not exceed
65OONG but even If the crop should not be-
larger than 6,t00000. there would be enough cot
ton To leave stocks ut the end of the season about
the same as nj the opening. Twelve months age
we stated that the world would want crop OF
6,Zlb,OOO bales to keep the then heavy stock in
tact but we also said, i'll the same report that
under certain circumstances land before the
great Indian development had taken place a
crop OF o, 18. 900 would suffice. So now we dc
not say that the world needs $500 900 to $500,
900, but merely that such crop could be ham
died without difficulty, rs it would be pretty
evenly distributed; while we do not believe that
any inconvenience would cnSue to the conlum.
ers ifthc yield should not exceed $4,000 0. az
there would be sufficient TO supply the estimated
increased wants of spinners without serious
treuching upon stocks. II will require $3.50 900
bales, however, to keep prices at moderate
level.
THE SIR or THE AMERICAN CRoP A GUESS woHK
The size of the American crop is AZ present SO
much matter of mere guess work that II Is i'm
possible to form IN opinion Of any value as to
the probable course ofprlces dnrlpg the season,
especially as there is also much uncertainty re,
speeding the extent of the Egyptian crop and as
10 the movement In India, On all these points
pretty definite information will be available in
about couple Of months In t1a meantime
consumers while operating as syrrlgly as pos
sible on the spot, are large buyers Of early ship
ments and deliveries on the ba is of the rate
now ruling for November and December futures
1t is evident that, for the remainder of the cur
rent yoar, spinners consider 6sd. SAFE price Il
which 10 pnt themselves under contract
AS to next year. everything will depend OF
the Developments OF supply and demand durin,
the coming two months, on the expiration o
which we. shall know better than we DO nov
whether the American crop is likely 10 be neare
six and halfmillions than seven, or vice versa
while we shall also be better able TO gauge IN
conditions and prospects of the great d.srlbul
ing markets for goods aud yarns, the presen
satisfactory state Of which Is TO some extent
traccabc to the uncertain outlook 1.-THE market
for the raw material.
IIvEppnN1