Savannah morning news. [volume] (Savannah) 1868-1887, 1882-02-04
The Cotton Supply.

| Correspondence Of the Commercial Bulletin.
In his annual circular, Issued In October
lass, Ellison estimated the supply Of cotton
from all sources, other than the United
| Sta'es, at l $3.50, ,OC0 bales 400 pounds each,
and that Europe would require besides this
4, l65 600 American bales Of 456 pounds
| each; and to give Europe this quantity and
leave America with a very moderate supply,
| (which he estimated at 2,05O0O0 bales) a
| crop of 8 6.215, GOO would be needed.
Now, without pretending that the wants
OF Europe are or are likely 10 be diminished
from HIS October estimate by a single bale,
he claims that an American crop OF $780,,
coo will be all that is required.
This brief snd simple statement will
probably suffice for most people.
But. f. any care to see just how this ''emi-
uent authority" arrives at his latest (prOba-
bly, not his last) conclusion, let such follow
me further.
He begins by estimating arrivals from
January to October 1 as follows:
Bales
From India. Observation-Disclosures. 1,24O 600
From Egypt, etc, c.,................ 80 600
FROM DFSLI- -.-.--.- .-...--.----. SoD,oOU
From sundries. ies............... $4,000
A total of $50 600 bales. Whereas, last
| year, during the same period, there was re-
ceived from these sources but l ,565, 900
bales, and the movement from them all is
VIGOROUSLY earlier, and for the same reason
that it had been earlier In this country, to
Wit: earlier maturity and greatly increased
facilities for transpOrtstion By this trick
of figures he gains 3l5 coo bales easily.
Then be as easily aud as quietly gains $4,000
| by figuring European consumption st 200
hales per week less than he estimated II In
| October, and in the same way gains 10000
bales at the expense o. American consump-
tIon and 75, 600 by taking it from the new
crop.
10 this convenient way he supplies $4,000
bales Of the deficiency. But even this will
not answer HIS purpose OF making Eve and
half million crop suffice!
Yet. be is equal to the necessity, and mark
how cleverlY he hides the remaining de-
6ciency OF eco 600 to 300 900 bales. 1t took
me some time 10 find how it was done. He
leaves the stock at the end OF September at
the ports and the mills st only 965 600 bales;
whereas, lest year this item was l,242, COO,
aud was found quite too small, as the mills
OF all Greet Britain were credited with but
% 600 bales, and one man was able to 'cOr-
ner' the Liverpool marRet and s,ueeZe $40
or SIS per bale out of English spinners and
long crop shortsl
SO much for Ellison and his way Of using
6gUres.
a word now as TO some facts Il is fact
Chat Is, Ellison says sO} that American cot
ton averaged last year 4j6 pounds per bale.
Also a fact (tiis Financial CltrOHfcJe) that
TO January 1st this crop has averaged about
Il pounds per bale less, making on 515
million crop difference of 139 600 bales.
L. is a fact that the consumption OF
"Americs, Canada and Mexico" will require
9, $50 600 bales.
Here, then, are 239, 900 bales which Mr..
Ellison must virtually add to his 6,2l5,OOO
American crop-tha. is, in order to leave
Europe the same small stock as at the end
OF September last year, an American crop
OF @ 454 600 bales will be required.
L. is also a fact that the only authority
which last year made a close estimate Of
the crop, this year, after fairly exhausting
| all sources Of information, now sdheres to
its earlier estimate of a 100000 crop.
1t Is further fact that this estimate is
substantially confirmed by all other autbOri-
ties, and, more important still, is confirmed
by the current movement and unmistakable
indications.
"Substantial eonRrmaHGnp of an estimate
| Of a cotton crop is TO come within per
cent Of the outturn. We will, therefore,
give Mr. Ellison and his friends (who are
soFsiy in need) the benefit Of a crop OF
3 $50. COO bales. From such a crop they
will get but $4,000 bales. He said they
would need 4,l65,O00 bales of 456 pounds,
eoual TO 4. 4.290. 600 bales Of such as we are
sending.
Here, then, Is deficiency Of 10000
bales.
Figures may be made TO ill this for
short time, buE nothing but cotton win an
sWer the purpose after short while. w.