Memphis daily appeal. [volume] (Memphis, Tenn.) 1847-1886, 1882-02-23
Bradstreet's, in which He Gives Some
Valuable Hints for Freezing Out
the Spectators.

| OutllDes Win pencil, giving you
| scholars stoop back of the face of a well-fe
| cherub. Before he became the editor @
| BradStreet's he was journalist OF repute an
/ enterprise, and entered his new field with tn
| hope of developing ii. But ] will let hin
tell the rest OF the story in his own way
Il saw long ago the need of statistical in
| formation in regard to the crops, especial,
OF those crops with which there Is specula
| ton. As long as the Spectator can keel
| the public in the dark as to the size Of tn
crop he is dealing in he can wiring it from
| the hands of the producer at a depresse.
K price and force the con'umer to buy it at al
| extravagant one. By creating false impres
| lions as TO the supply he can bear it unit
| the farmer is forced to sell, and then bull i
| until the spinner Is forced to buy. Accurate
| and early information as to the acreag
planted and the probable yield will proven
either depression or corners; will let tn,
farmer and the spinner understand eacl
other; will put the crop on its merit, anc
discourage speculation"
"All right-grantedl Now go ahead"
"Well," said the man of figures, as the
round head went down almost to the table
II saw that none of the systems then at WORK
would do. The agricultural department haC
failed utterly and the cotton exchanges had
done no better, and be felt that it needed in
iividual enterprise TO accomplish what cor
porate work could never do. For instance
where is the responsibility in the report OF
cotton exchange? 1t is simply sent out az
the report of the committee; if it fails, the
blame can be lodged no where. But when a
single and responsible firm issues list Of
figures, there is somebody to stand for them
$50 you determined to get up the sta
tistics2"
1Yes. And 1 determined to introduce
journalism into trade. The trouble with all
our COMMERCIAL papers is that they work in
Il book-room, and base heir estimates on fig.
ures loosely gathered. | saw that the only
way TO do the work thoroughly was to or
ganizs your own reporting force, and get
your own facts. | went to work, therefore
o report the cotton crop just as the Herald
would report a great war. l selected over
four thousand reporters, stationed in almost
every county in which cotton was grown.
arranged series OF questions for them and
started the work. AS soon as l discovered a
defect in the intelligence, the farmers, or
the conservatism of a man, l dropped him.
After years of wedding out / now have
Twelve hundred picked men, in whom we
have Just the same confidence that the
Herald has in one of its trained correspond
ents. These men are on the guard-each
one reports only on his own immediate
l1cality-and all are interested solely in
getting the truth. do not see why we can
not get a fair statement. | believe we have
got it,"
excuse the question-but do Bfadsireet's
people ever speculatep
'Speculatel They are the biggest specu-
lators to-day in the country. They never
buy or sell a bale of cotton, or future con-
tract, but they have more at stake on the
present crop than the biggest Spectator in
New York. Why? Because they have put
their trademark on Information. They have
a large and profitable business that depends
absolutely upon their reputation for accu-
racy. Ii they lose this reputation, their
business is gone. And yet they may have
deliberately put out an unequal estimate of
the staple crop of this cotton, and stamped
it with their trademark. Therefore, they
have more at stake than any one man can
have Thousands of men have been infiu-
enced by these reports, and up to date the
market has shown its disbelief of our figures.
Our estimates and our systems are being de-
nounced, and we fully understand the respon-
sibility."
"The stock is certainly an enormous 0neW
''Yes. You see last year it was generally
understood that our system was hardly per-
fected, and our estimates ran IN the general
direction of public opinion, consequently we
we're not much discussed. This year, how
ever, we have spoken authoritatively, against
public opinion, before any one else, and have
claimed that our system was perfect II the
returns should prove that we were far wrong
| could only publish our vouchers to show
that we had not acted in bad faith, but We
would be badly hurt. Ii, however, the crop
should bear us out, the public will then be-
lieve what we know to be true, viz: that our
system cam be relied on and our reports will
become standard"
What do you think the result will be?'
81 believe more firmly than ever that it
will be within the shadow of our estimate
From first to last we have found a current
IF unyarying figures. When the crop was
about one-thIrd gathered We had our esti-
mates as to what it would be. The other
lay, after the crop had been gathered, we
ent out for estimates OF what was remain
ng on the plantations. We then took this
percentage of cotton still on the planta-
ions, added it to what had been received,
md we found that the total was within
ew thousand bales of the first estimate
.iven US as to what the crop would be.
These sets of figures, one taken from the
rop before it was gathered and the other
Ifter it was gathered, coinciding so nearly,
lave demonstrated in my mind the correct
less of our total. In addition to this we
lave the receipts for the past two months
ully backing up our estimate. They
re falling off now at the rate of
bout seventy thousand a week, and
hey are even below the total of esti-
mated daily receipts that we prepared when
re made our last statement for office use, and
hat brings the crop within five million one
undsed thousand bales. So that in addition |
D two sets of figures taken from different |
oints of view, and in answer to different |
cts of questions, we hsye the actual receipts |
D back up. 1t Is my opinion that the |
ecrease in receipts as maintained for the |
asst three years will be continued or even |
increased to the end Of the season."
A gentleman sitting with us said to Mr.. |
ord:
Il think the weak point in your state |
nent is in the estimated amount OF cotton !
Eft on the plantations. You make it three |
undred and ninety-one thousand bales this |
ear when at the same time last year it was |
ne million seven hundred and sixty thou
and. / think this difference is too largeP
eve have studied this thing fully" said /.
IT. Ford, "and we see no reason to dispute
he testimony of our correspondents. We |
ave urged them to examine the situation
arefully, and to make conservative reports, |
pproxim sting the truth where they could
ot get it exactly. Notwithstanding this |
recaution we have made a reduction from
heir reports to satisfy the present equation. |
hat is the percentage of error that must exist |
q all human estimates that must be deducted I
rom the total to which general opinion or
interest runs. In other words, we can submit I
he details of our system 10 any set OF 'ex- (
erts, and they would say that it was az near /
erfect as it could possibly be made"
''Why is it that the market has gone down
teadily in the face of your report"
ave have nothing to do with the market,
nd really care nothing as to whether it goes
ID or down. The price OF cotton has moth
1g to do with our system. We simply wish |
D establish the fact that our estimates can
e relied on as accurate. Speculative rise
r fall is m after OF indifference. Still there
, this explanation TO be made: New York
nd Liver pool-that Is, the specializing cen-
the organized influence in
otton The producers, the outsiders and the
uyers represent the disorganized mob. Or
anization brings confidence, commands capt.
al and controls prices. 1t is manifestly the
olicy of those who have organized to make
louey out of the market TO force prices
gainst general opinion. The lambs, or out
iders, buy on general appearances. In ofder4
D fleece them the spectators must force the /
larket into the contrary direction from what
would naturally take. II they join hands
nth the outsiders and assist the market to
Is bent, there is no chance Tor them to
] axe money, and consequently ii has come to /
e q provcrb that cotton always does exactly
hat il is not expected TO do, and that sta
Istics have nothing to do with 1t. This Is
xactly the state of things that We are trying |
D break down. If we can establish the cor
ectness of our reports, even an organized
liaue cannot force the market into caprices