The Republican. [volume] (Oakland, Md.) 1877-current, 1882-09-02
The Wheat Yield.

ferhapS estimates as to the wheat
crop have never been wider apart than
they they are now. Some excellent
authorltles, apparently supported by
the Bureau of Agriculture. hold that
the yield in 1882 will be 1000, 900
bushels or less, while others, claiming
more or less support from official re.
turns, maintain that the Weld will
be OO,OO0,000 bushels or more. The
/ points OF difference are, first, that the
outside returns and estimates gener-
ally exceed those of the Agricultural
bureau, and second, that the state
mehts OF that Bureau have not been
entirely consistent with themselves.
Thus Tile Daily Commercial Bulletin.
winch still insists that the yield will
not be less than $4,000, 900, and prob
ably more than 600,O00,O 900 bushels,
holds that the estimates of acreage by
the Agricultural Department are en-
tltIed to some confidence, though it's
estimate of yield is not. Applying
It's estimates of increase of acreage in
1850, 1881 and 1882 to the Census re-
port, 1t makes the acreage in 1882 not
less than 4O,S00,000, and computes the
yield as nearer fourteen bushels per
acre than any other figure, thus MAX
ing Oh 100000 bushels. But the Off
clal bulletin of the Produce Exchange
takes very different view, both Of
acreage and of average yield. 1t
shows that the largest average yield
IN thirteen years has been 1879 BUSH
els, aid that the acreage last year was
much less, according to the Bureau
report, than THE Commercial Bulletin
suppOses.
1t is very unfortunate that the Ag-
rlcultural Bureau has not secured o
high degree of confidence for It's
statistic. The wide difference be-
tween its estimates and the Census
returns caused Il general disposition
to regard its later figures as untrust~
worthy. Yet the same statistician
who prepared the Census report, as it
happens, had prepared the previous
reports and has prepared the later re-
ports of the Bureau, and it is hardly
to be supposed that he has left differ
ent parts of his own work to conflict
with each other in a foolish and un-
reasonable manner. The Census re-
turns disclosed much larger acreage
and yield of wheat than the Bureau
had estimated for the year 1879.
From the attempt to reconcile the
Bureau with the Census reports,
much of the subsequent confusion
has arisen. But, unless it is supposed
that the statiStician of the Bureau
can be convicted OF a very palpable
and shameless act of bad faith, it is
unreasonable to aver that his esti-
= mates for 1881 or for this year have
not been carefully corrected in the
light Of the Census report, made by
himself.
The Bureau has not made detail
ed statement for this year, but esti-
mates that the crop of wheat will not
be far from 500,000,0O0 bushels, The
Commercial Bulletin, while talking of
6OO,OOO,000 bushels, only gives to
warrant an expectation of 572, ,OOO, 900
bushels, if the yield should prove the
largest per acre on record, and if the
acreage should prove much larger
than the Bureau represents. All par
ties, however, base their calculations
upon state of facts which existed
.. prior to the prolonged storm, by
!, which it is officially reported that
100000 bushels of wheat were in
jured in Michigan alone. In some
; localities, also, the threshing, not yet
in progress when either of these ac-
counts were made, has turned out
much more favorable, and in others
much less favorable than the farmers
expected, and the latest dispatches
from Kansas differ in estimates five
) bushels to the acre, which, for 4O, ,OOO,-
600 acres, would imply a difference
y. Of 200, 100000 bushels for the whole
country. Evidently it can hardly be
profitable to put much confidence in
favorable or in unfavorabIe estimates,
t under such circumstances. The coun-
try has an ample supply of wheat,
but that is about all it is likely to
know for some months to come. At
the lowest estimate, the country has
, grain enough to meet all known or
, probable demands. At the highest,
prices would probably prove so un-
satisfactory to farmers that they
would put large quantities in store
} ". Y. Tribune.