The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1882-11-19
This Seasons Cotton Crop.

| The Agricultural Bureau at Washington
issued last week its report Of the cotton crop
| OF the United States. Such information from
that source can by no means be implicitly
| trusted. DIR. LoRING's bureau has been
wrong before in its crop estimates, and it
may be far out of the way now. But we can
use its figures to advantage along with other
facts concerning the cotton yield, gathered
from the most trustworthy sources.
Assuming that the next six weeks will be a
period OF average weather, the Agricultural
Bureau deduccs from its estimates of the cot
ton acreage and Of the yield of cotton per
acre in the ten principal cotton States, that
| the crop of the present season will aggregate
| 6,525 900 bales. That would be an increase
over last seasons crop of 100000 bales, and
n decrease Of $1,000 bales as compared with
| the crop Of the previous season, which was
the largest ever raised in this country.
The best authorities assume that the Nv
crage net weight OF the bale this year will be
at least 40 pounds. Up to the LIST of Novcm-
Der the gross weight averaged 496 pounds.
against 4S6 pounds at the same date last
| year, and an average gross weight for the
| whole year OF 47G pounds. 1t is not thought
likely that the net weight of the bale this
season will be over 90 pounds less than the
average so far, though it is true that last
season it fell of 80 pounds from the average
for September and October.
According to the estimates OF Mr.. ELLISON
| OF Liverpool, the acknowledged European
authority on cotton, the cotton crops OF
| India and other producing countries besides
the United States. including Egypt, will be
400 900 bales, $4,000 bales for India, and
| 95O, 900 for "sundrics" Las. season India
sent to Europe 1867, 900 bales, and "sun-
dries" 95l 900 bales, of which $4,000 csimc
from Egypt. But lator news from Egypt
than Mr.. ELLISON had when he made his cs-
Inmates, apparently iustiilcs us in cutting
down his figures for "sundrics " by from
100000 to 122,00o bales, and that, too, OF
Egyptian cotton, tho bale OF which weighs
! more than double that of any other cotton
inclu led in his "sundrics,.
Hence We would got a total crop for tho
world this season of S.So0.0o0 balcs.
The visible supply Of cotton in the world
on The first oi October Mi5 including our in
terror markets. l,3JJ,910 bales, against .76i,
oGO bales in 1881; and Of American cotton
only 80, 900 bales against AL, 900 the previous
year Tho invisible supply, or spiuncrs
holdings in Europe ut the same date, was
reported rs 100000 bales less tkan last year
and in the Unitod States the spnnrrs held
far less stock than usual, Though no Stats
ties of their holdings are ub.'sinabc.
Tho cou,umrtirn last year fGr the whole OF
Europe was G,1i9.D1O bales, avcrugn. AZ
pounds per bale and the consumption OF
America, including Carada, was 2,O01o0l
bales Of our own growth There IL every
prospect that the consumption for the pres
cnt year in both Europe aue America will
show II considerable incrIaS' over these iig-
uveS. The Increase last year was about $780,
90 bales. rs compared with the previous
s,cnson; and the price of cotton in New York
il now n cent and onc-hRli below the price at
the same time in 1891. We 81 b. pretty
safe, therefore, in assuming II total consump-
ton in Europe and America of 4 :i5), 900 bales
or 2otON bales more than last year.
We have, then. u crop in the world this
year estimated mt S,so0,ooo bales, with pros
pcctivc demand for s,5jJ,oo3 bales. That
would leave surplus of 25o,0oo bales to be
carried over next September fron the pres
cnt crop. Tho cotton year, we Will explain,
is from September To September.
O,n''last report from Liverpool, however,
shove that the invisible supply on the first
of November in Europe was only 1900 bales,
against 100000 bales II year ago. 1t IL be-
| lievei. too, that the American spinners are
now c<irying six weeks less stock than last
year, which would make the invisible suDply
here at least 2a5,C10 bales less. But lct n,
assume, SO as to be- on the safe side that the
| spinncrs in the world are carrying only $50, 900
bales less than last November.
The causes Of this decreased stock on hand
are plain. Last year the season opened with
| relatively low prices. and rapidly advanced
1 aS buyers became assured of the Smalncss
of the crop. Large buying was therefore
| the rule. This year prices opened abnormal
| ly high, owing to the iateness of the crop,
and manufacturers consequently bought as
little as possible, working up the stock on
| hand to almost tho last bale. Their course
both years was n wise one, for they can now
| replace their stock at the lowest price cot ton
has touched since the war, with the one cx-
ccpton Of the season of the Glasgow panic.
And not only is the price in America at II
very low ebb as compared with the experience
of the present generation, but the quality
OF the crop is also extraordinarily good this
season in staple, color, and body Spinners
accordingly havo every reason to rep!cnsh
their almost exhausted stocks on hand.
Business on the continent of Europe in
yarns and goods is also sound and active
and in the United States and Great Britain
labor Is fully employed, so that the con-
| sumption demand il steady, with a good
prospect of cheap food throughout the year
In the East Iudics and China, England's
largest customers, there is perhaps an over
supply OF goods, rs compared with late
years, but no such glut as existed during
past periods Of depression.
All these facts and causes point to con-
sumption OF cotton at least rs large rs that
we have estimated. AS to the product, it is
| necessary, as We suggested at first, to take