The Waco daily examiner. [volume] (Waco, Tex.) 187?-1888, 1882-01-03
English Views ON Ihc Cotton
6'rOn

trOp.
We are indebted to Mr., 4 J. \. Ian
dauer for Ellison ~ Co.'S monthly cot
ton report, from which We extract the
following
THE DIVERSITY OF OPINION.
There is just us much diversity Of
opinion to-day as to the probable out
come of the American crop, as there
was twcvle months ago about the one
then coming III. We wrote that "Ehe
favOrite estimates range about 500
900, but there are some authorities who
look for over 6,OOnWH. and others who
expect less than 5.7OO,OO0 bales. These
remarks are rs true now of the present
crop as they were then of the past one.
There is this difference, however,we know
now that the area planted last season
wasi greatly under estimated. Instead
of the increase on the previous season
being only to 9 per cent,as was stated
by the principal authorities, it is DOW
admitted that it was at least II per cent.
If this bad been known year ago the
estimates would have ranged from about
100000 to 6.0O0,000, instead of from
100000 to 6,000,000. This year the in
crease in the area sown is about 1 to )
last, which was considered an unfay ora
bic one, would give crop of 6,S5O,UOO to
6,9OO,0O0. Making an ample allowance
for injury done by the droutIl, we think
that the crop cannot be much less than
6,OOO,OOO bales, while it may be consid-
erably more. This, of course. is a mere
conjecture, but to our minds
it is more reasonable conjecture than
5,750,0O0 bales, to say nothing of the
still smaller figures put forth in many
quarters. Moreover, it is bOrne out by
the movements of the crop at the ports
and interior towns to date:
1851. lSso. 1879
Port receipts, Aug.
ii to Dec 8 80, Is, 900 9,7I2, OlO 2,i63. Ooo
to Nov. 80 .,..,. 2al 200 I7s,ooo 49,, 600
Increase I'm inte-
riOr stocks since
Aug 3l........-.. 3ij,ON 2ii, 900 %. 600
Total in sight. s ,O43, OOO 3.I3t, ESQ 1852 900
The port receipts are to the exact days
of the month for each year, and are ac-
cOrding to the New York Cotton ex-
change.
THE AMOUNT BEHIND LAST SEASON.
The total so far this season is only
$1,000 bales behind last season: and I'M
less there occurs a considerable falling
off from this day forward, the yield will
be much larger than is at present thought
possible. The movement IN 1879 was
one of the quickest on record, and yet,
if 2,952,O00 ON December 9 gave crop
of 5,757,00 bales, the 3,0i9,00O received
so far this season will give a crop of
5,950,000 bales. This is the smallest
crop to which the figures point.
1t is said that the receipts will
shortly begin to fall off, ana that III a
little time the figures will point to Il
yield of no more than 5,750,000 bales:
but this is IL mere opinion, which may
or may not be realized, whereas, the fig
ures, so far as they 90, are facts. Last
year at this time the figures pointed to
a large crop, but opinion was strong on
a small crop, SO strong, indeed, that 1T
caused authorities who had started with
6,GO0,OOO to come down to &, 100000, and
yet the figures were after all correct.
How do We know that it will not be the
same this season? We don't mean to
say that it will be so; because there Is
not sufficient reliable data on winch to
form an opinion. But what We do have
to say is that the known facts do not
point to small crop; and We only waive
the conclusion that they point to a
large crop, in Difference to the
opinion of valued correspondents
in the states, who do not look for
more than from 6,250.000 to 6,35OOOO
bales in any case, while they would not
be surprised to see only 5000, 900 bales 1t
will be possible, however, to form pref
tv definite estimate in the course of the
next three weeks; meanwhile 1t should be
borne in mind that we started the season
with half million bales more in stock
than we had twelve months previously,
and that India now promises to send us
at least 100000 bales more this season
than last.
AS to prices, it is not likely that much
change Will be witnessed until the crop
estimates come closer together. which
they will not do until next month; but as
present spot rates are only trihe over