New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1882-12-22
THE sToRM PREDICTED FOR MARCH
WHAT THE CHIEF SIGNAL OFFICER SAYS.

letter to the President OF the UNIV"
reads as follows: .Ao,cb the
Canadian nress that aereat storm would occur III
next that II would frat be felt In tho Northern 49,,
vould appear in the Gulf Of Mexico on 'ne n,4"
9th. and-beng reflected by the ROCKY Niou" 30 snn
would cross this meridian from the west AZ hoo"
day, March IL, 1883 ii, IN safe ont of
,arhor ard mona of small tonnage can hope 10 sor'"
tho tidal wave and fury of this tempest AS 'no
will blow from the southeast. the planetary -,oo,
suacient TO submerge the low lands Oh INC :, 80
coast especially those bordering on tno u"N IN. ,ho
and ,vasbed by the Gulf Stream VINO ,uo
~" nsror,s for several hundred miles
-, tho east side OF the ROCKY mo".'
, range owing TO the great atmospheric pIesSui1 -
tnose re gions viii spread universai oes''uo"o IN, 49,
Nev.En gland states will also suner se'ero'y I'm
wind and floods. No point OUTSIDE Oh naioo " 'uo
ao ~ tbe Atantic-especialy north OF the equator
~, -, n.ce ~ safety; for this will be prominently
~, oa,ss storm that has visited this continent since
tho davs of your iIlustrious first President.
Tn lew OF this event. therefore, take the great liberty
NJ reprasentng Your Exoellency the advisaoiy OF
ordering all United States ships into safe harbors not
later than the 9th of March till this storm be past
have the honor TO be etc.,
r. STONE wIGeISs IL. D., Astronomer
This letter. which has been widely disseminated
by the press of the country, might well receive no
official notice hut for the fact that many people,
who have no facilities for judging OF the Vaiue Oh
such a prediction are disposed to give 1t credence
There are always some to be found who VIII put
confidence in the widest spsculatons OF those VINO
profess TO foreel future events and 1t requires only
madness in making a prediction and tone of au-
thorty in delivering the message TO enapie inc
nroobet to gain listeners The number of followers,
however, will surely diminish IN proportion as the
people are instructed in the allacies which undere
In he eya IN afforded
Virgins IS letter the following may be pointed out:
l. No storm track has ever been observed which
moved III the path indicat d bv the words first be
felt in the Northern Pacific, would appear In tne
Gulf of Mexico on the night OF the 9TH, and-Delng
reflected by the Rocky MOuntains-wouid cross thls
meridian (Ottawal from the west at noon oil sun
dav. March IL. 1888" The Rocky Mountains 20
not possess the power of "rehectlngN a storm
though they may modify It's course and 1t Is dlih-
cult to understand how storm can proceed from
the Pacific to Canada via the Gulf of Mexico and
suffer any reflection whatever from the ROCKY
Mountains There are two distinct classes of storms
which traverse this country the one which enters
the country in the northwest (some of which can
be traced from the Pacific across the mountainsl
and moro easteIy or southea iteTy to the Atlantic,
and the other which enters the country in the Gull
States and more nOrtheastery along the coast. III
sometimes THOUGH rarely, happens that TWO storms,
one of each class unite in thelr course which may
give slight se nbance of truth to such descrip-
ton as that given above, but it should be distinctly
noted that the words quoted Will not stand crtlcal
examinations The same NAV be said of the sentence
which a,ludeS to the planetary force" causing
eubmerson of low lands, and the air currents on the
| east of the Rocky Mountains spreading universal
| destruction Should a severe storm area cross
fine country in an easterly direction from the Rocky
| Maintains strong southeast winds will blow
! towards the storm centre in advance OF 1T and
strong northwest winds will follow it, according to
! q weil-establlshe law of rotation OF the winds IN
| the vicinity of an area of low barometer. This Is
all that can be truthful in the sentence under dis
cusson There is no "great atmospheric pressure"
| in the region of the Rocky Mountains. except that
| an area of high pressure may temporarily prevail
| there and the words planetary force" belong 10
| the vocabulary of astrology and MEDIEVAL super
| stition upon which modern science cannot DE 700
severe.
2. 1t is absolutely impossible to predict storm
for moro than a few DAYS in advance The infOr-
nation cannot be TOO widely distributed that no one
can foretel even the general character of coming
season. much less the occurrence of particular
storm in that season. 1t is possible that the adj
vance of our knowledge may at some time enable
MS to predict the wea her for many days i'll advance
but this Is not possible at the present
time Meteorology is yet III its infancy
and no is vet able TO anticipate
the occurrence OF a meteorological phenomenon Tor
more than few days-a week at the most. If any
ono will take the trouble TO verify the weather
predictions winch in these days are so frequently
made by the actual weather experienced he VIII
find that about half of them are fulfilled and halt
fail When given prediction is fulfilled it is often
made matter of marked comment. while the I'M
4 hon TINA
is passed over in silence. The impression, therefore,
prevails that reliance can be placed upon the fore
castings of weather prophets, but this impression
will be removed by any who will give attention
| to the subject. A series of simple guesses, based
upon no reasoning whatever, viii come true in the
long run as many times they will fail Until then
weather productions are fulfilled more times than
they fail, they must be regarded as equivarent 10
guesses an rs having no value whatever All pre-
dictiOns of the W ather 70 De expected month or
more in advance, whei her based upon the position
of the planets or of the nOon or upon the number
/ of sun.spo,s, upon any supposed law OF
periodicity of natural phenomena. or upon any
hypothesis whatever which to-day has its adyo-
Gates are as unreliable predictions OF the time
when the end of the world will cone.
There is difficulty in refuting the assertions Of
those who pretend 10 foretell the weather
since their predictions frequently relate to
occurrences which are almost to prove in.part
as foretold. Thus the prediction of early snow in
the northwest in August September is very safe
one TO make if claims the right to test it by the
| weather reported at any one town IN the North
western States or Territories or adjacent British
territory Similarly the prediction of a storm in
March is quite certain to be fulfilled During the
past years the number of storms which prevailed
in this country in March has averaged twelve. vary-
| ing from ten in 1881 and 1882 to
| eighteen in 1870. Sope of these have
been very severe, aud it rarely happens
| that the month OF March passes in any year with