The Evening critic., 1882-11-02


WE confess that from where VIC sit the
indications of vast success which some
members Of the Democratic Congressional
Committee profess to discern in the pros
pect Of next weeks elections are not visi-
bic. 1t seems to us-and our impression is
based upon review of the situation, not
only careful but dispassionate-that the
actual result will be n sort of equitable
average between the extravagant expecta-
tions of elated Democrats and the gloomy
forebodings Of disheartened Republicans.
The Democrats thus far have
made net gain of five Men,
bers, after deducting their losses in
Maine and West Virginia from their re-
markable accessions in Ohio. 1t appears
that they will further gain at least two in
Indiana, three in Pennsylvania and one or
two in New York. Then they are likely to
lose one in Delaware, one in Louisiana, one
in North Carolina, one in South Carolina,
one in Texas, two in Missouri and from
one to three in Virginia. The gains which
they profess to expect in Wisconsin, New
Jersey, Connecticut aud New Hampshire
are too problematical to be reclSoned in
any serious calculation at this writ
ing. 1t must be remembered as
we observed the other day, that there is no
tidal wave this year in strictly National
politics. There is no palpable indication
that the local defections in New York,
Pennsylvania and New Hampshire extend
to the Congressional tickets at all. The
most that can be said is that in contest
between closely balanced forces and not
distinguished by much enthusiasm on
either side, the Democrats seem to have
some advantages of position in the North
ern States and to labor under nearly, if not
quite, equal disadvantages in the South.
The Democratic gains thus far, provided
the November election should make no
further changes in the aggregate, would
not control the House, as the organization
went last fall. But no calculation can bo
predicted upon that basis, because there has
been reorganization of the scale of repre-
sentation itself. 1t was figured some timo
ago that the new scale Of representation, as
acted on by the various States, made 1873
sure Democratic districts upon the basis of
the vote of 1850. OF these districts they
have lost two in Maine and two in West
Virginia On thessame basis the new scale
of representation made 15l certain Republic
can districts.
OF these eight have been lost in Ohio by
defeat and one in Vermont by shrink.
age, leaving net Democratic gain of five
Thus, if they gain the seven or eight that
seem probable in Indiana, New York and
Pennsylvania, and lose the eight that seem
equally probable in the Southern States,
the Democrats must still depend upon
their problematical chances of gain else.
where to give them satisfactory majority
AS to chances pure and simple, the Demo
Gratis undoubtedly have the best of them
But viewed in cool blood, the situation
presents nothing but chances, and these
while they may be hatterng, are by nc
means conclusive until the votes arc
counted.
The Democrats will probably be able tc
elect the officers Of the House. But thai
their majority will be more than just barely
enough to entail upon them the responsi
bility of legislation, we do not believe. II
our opinion the next House will be very
closely balanced, with large element o
independents and nondescripts that neither
party can absolutely depend on.