Savannah morning news. [volume] (Savannah) 1868-1887, 1882-02-06
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ulrA1 states - 40,vl4 os4o@,UlU
OF which American spinners
viii want, including South
ern ....-..... ...-........... $500 sll,CoO
$4,000 262' 600
Allow for final sock in ports $4,000 21a,OO0
Leaving for Eu.ure export 10000 100000
Messrs. Neil Bros. & Co. are confident
that the above figures are correct, and
from their circular We take the following
interesting extract:
Against the excess Of 339, 600 which
planters hold in the ports and towns.
they hold. according to our information,
some !. Oj0. 600 bales less on their plan
tatiOrs. which will soon be evidenced by
the course Of receipts. The last occasion
on which we predicted so perpendicular
a drop IN receipts was in the early spring
Of 1872, and the actual receipts after the
same week in that year proved to be only
FPS, 600 bales against ?, 120, 900 the pre-
vi0us season. Should the prOpOrtiOnate
falling of this year be equally rapid, the
future decrease, as compared with last
wear. would amount to I ,003, 600 bales,
and the total crop would only figure up
J, 261 900 balesi This great falling off
in the supply of that season was com
pensated for by an increase OF !. 1874 900
bales from India, Brazil, and other
sources. yet an advance in price Of l.
took place in January and June, not
withstauding the fact that the new Anne
rican crop QS72-13) had then made
good start and ultimately gave an in
crease of 9jj 600 bales on the previous
/ short crop. II was argued in January,
| 1872, as now, that the receipts till date
being nearly as large as the previous
crop. proved that the short crop esti-
mates could not be correct, and if they
we're. il was added, the large supply
from other sources would ill the gap
and keep prices in check. Yet prices
advanced as stated, Notwithstanding the
aggregate number of bales being equal
/ to The previous year, so much are people
led By the American crop figures to
which all eyes are always turned. If
this was the case when America yielded
only One-half of the total supply, it is
| likely 10 be still more so when a full
American cotton crop forms threefourths
Of the total supply. We cannot there
| fore see any good reason for the great
timidity which now prevails On the part
Of spinners in regard to importing for
| their customary wants. Last year, in
the face of every probability of a large
aud continuous increase in supplies, they
| imported with confidence, and very nat
urally lost money for their pains. NOs,
/ with ten-fOld more reason for confidence,
aud for dread of short stocks at Liver
| pool leading to speculative manipula-
| tons Of the market, spinners are content
| 10 let the American and Russian manu-
| facturers secure the cream Of the crop,
and TO trust to the tender mercies Of
mlddlemen the task of supplying their
wants out OF the leavings of other buy
| ers. Should these men, with a short
supply and excessive demand, hereafter
/ find themselves masters Of the position
who sIall blame them if they take
! advantage of the opportunity to force
prices to a high level If corners can
be successfully carried out in the time of
| superabundant crops, may we not have
much more severe ones when the crop is
over a million bales smaller, and when
the season ends with a large decrease
instead Of a formidable increase in the
worlds stocks 2"
While, however, it is conceded that
the crop this year will fall considerably
below that OF the year past. there is still
q very decided conflict Of opinion as to
whether prices will materially advance
in consequence. The natural sequence
to a short crop is, of course, high prices,
but there are various circumstances ex-
listing just now which may have ten
deucy to keep prices down for some
time yet The Galveston Nelss, for in
stance, which has all along discredited
the large crop theories Of bearish speeu-
latOrs, thinks that there are many fac
tors to be considered which may seri-
ously impair the probability of any
significant advance in the present
price of the staple. These are
that India cOttOns are going freely
into consumption in both France and
Germany. the difference IN the price as
compared with American cotton favor
ing the movement, fair Dhollerah being
cheaper by SIS a bale than American
ordinary, and the Nelrs thinks that
''while this condition lists, and the sup
ply continues liberal. it viii be somewhat
difficult apparently to force American
cotton upward. Liverpool for months
past as regards prices has not been on a
parity with New York, and vet the
former market can point to an excess in
stocks as compared with last year. Liver
pool IS somehow getting all she needs
It is quite possible that Europe has not
even yet fully realized the falling of in
the American cotton crop as compared
with last season, but if yield of $780,
600 bales be ample for EurOpe's require
ments, that amount is likely to be forth
coming"
These points may be well taken, and
if they are correct it is evident they will |
tend to prevent any very rapid immedi-
ate advance in prices, especially when
the present panicky condition of the Eu
ropean money market is considered. |
There is one very important point to be
thought of on the other side, however.
There may, as we have said, not be ex-
perienced q very rapid advance in prices
Immediately, but the shortness of the
crop, and the known demand for the
staple in the world, will be quite likely
to prevent any decline Of consequence,
while an advance before the season ends
may reasonably be counted upon. Those
Southern planters, therefore, who have
been able to hold on to their crops for
better prices, can still do so in compare
tive safety, since they are not likely to
lose thereby, and may. very probably,
yet see their anticipations realized. /