Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1882-11-04
THE PENNSYLVANIA CAMPAIGN.
PaftisOn's Election PrObable-But Beavers
Chances Impr0ving-An Analysis of the SITE
nation - The Congressional Districts - The
State Legislature, Etc.
,ial Correspondence of THE EVENING STAR.


PHILADELPHIA. Nov. 8.
Pattison's election as governor by a majority
which may rise to 1000 and is not likely to fall
below 10000, is to-day considered as certain, by
those best informed, as any political event can
be. The regular republican campaign here has
not fallen into the hopeless collapse Of the cam
paign in New York. The machine, instead of
being routed is sullenly retreating in good order
In New York stalwarts like John F. Smyth and
Stephen B. French describe the approaching
defeat as 'fgnominious." Here there is q
logged feeling that some chance in the chapter
of accidents some change in the tide, some
bargain and sale. some honest revulsion in the
party at the approach of democratic success
may yet win. In word, Beaver is not yet
beaten he may not be; but every one believes
that he will be-
THE REAL REASON
which checks all needless prophecy is that deep
down few believe that when success is neces-
sary to Senator Cameron he will not win it. In
stead of falling off as defeat grows more prob
able the effOrtsto carry the state have increased
and If ever the efforts of a politician deserved
success he does Beavers success pivots on
two factOrs-a light vote for Stewart and a
heavy vote for Armstrong labor candidate
Nearly all Of the first vote will be republican,
two-thirds of the last democratic, and it offers
sluce-way for the two OBJECTIONS from Patti
sons vote, one along the line of the labor party
and the other OF Catholic Irish opposition to the
democratic candidate. Taking Ohio as a basis
OF calculation and the two states have varied in
about the same proportion in off years and on,
and the vote OF the state must reach $50 600
-l25,O0 less than 1854 vigorous campaign
being offset by republican ''apathy." If Stewart
polls over $4,000 OF this vote PattsOn is elected;
m 9 ,ncf
will pull through by narrow plurality, which
may leave the result in doubt for twenty-fOur
hours. Enthusiasts put Stewards vote Off-hand
at 900, and Quay makes the shrewd remark
that If it rises SO. OOO-the vote of WOlfe the in
dependent candidate last year, was 499S4-it
will run to 100 600 and elect Pattison, his theory
being that il Stewart shows any strength he will
show great deal. Few careful estimates,
county by county, give the independents over
7O.OOO-not enough to make Pattison's election
more than strong probability Nearly one
half the independent vote is in Pittsburg and
Philadelphia, and it is worth noting that while
stewart may run below WOlie's vote here. he
will probably run above it in Pittsburg, where
the independent movement is taking firm
hold.
Beavers CHANCES SHADE BETTER
Public and popular prediction is dealing
widely just at present with Pattison's success;
but nearly every one inside admits that Beavers
chances are shade better to-day than ten days
ago. The regular organization has been making
the stubborn careful fight which only a we'll
disciplined body can partial but tolerably
complete canvass fortnight ago convinced, or
seemed to convince the republican managers
That Stewart and Armstrong would poll &c, 600
apiece. Since then the independent managers
have discovered that in counties where they
felt secure like Franklin, Stewards home county,
1t would be difficult to get for the Independent
candidate anything like the strength expected.
The immediate result of the discovery is q
prompt readiness to exchange votes with the
democrats on Congress, and turn the district
over to +. NJ. Kimba the democratic candidate:
but this does not alter the serious proof that
the machine is making Roadway in an appa-
rently hopeless fight. Still more, during the
last week. the regular organization has been
aDe TO head of assertions. For three months
III private, for month in a semi-public fashion,
Governor Hoyt has been expressing sympathy
with the independent movement for week he
has been talking seriously of coming out in a
puollc speech Saturday was fixed for it, but at
the last moment his courage has failed-th!s
is his own way of putting the matter-and the
lines through the state are likely to remain I'M
changed General Beaver himself retains much
confidence and with fair reason. The local tide
began TO turn in his favor when the cheers fol-
lowed him down the line last week as he rode
at the head OF his brigade in the National guard
Since then-and it is a master strOke-the I'M
usual course has been taken of bringing the
candidate for governor before ward meeting in
every ward III the city, and there is no manner
OF doubt that his clutches and his bearing are
winning votes where they are most needed.
THE CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS
The real dimensions of the tidal wave which
seems likely to sweep the state are best seen
when it comes to congressional districts Out
OF twenty-seven the republicans now hold eigh-
teen, with one-13th or Schuylkill-district rep
resented Dy Brumm, greenback republican. Not
more than twelve of the eighteen are secure to-
day, one or two more are probable but unless
all signs fail the democrats will pick I'D from
three to five districts, having better chance to
do this than to elect their governor The dis
trlcts about which there is no more doubt than
seems to attach to everything in this year
are three of the four in Philadephia-Bing-
MANS, LIST. ONeilFs, 3d. and Kelley's, the 9TH
Harmer in the 5th. is opposed by Thomas J.
Martin. independent republican and democrat,
whose canvass has been taken up by business
men in a way which points to Hariner's defeat.
outside Ofthe city the secure districts are-the
7th. in which l. Newton Evans is opposed by w.
II. II. Davis and f. l.. Asher regular and indie
pendent democrats; the 9th where A. Herr
Smith is certain Of reelection; the 23d. pitts
burg,) where Payne is making an unOpposed
race; and the Oath. washington and Beaver.
10Th, (Harry White's.) Goth. (Miller's) and 9th,
(Erie.) all Of which are certain to elect the re-
publican candidates-in two cases the sitting
members-in the oath. George V. Lawrence and
9th, s. M. Brainerd. The late nomination
made only Wednesday-of w. W. Brown in the
Tioga-Mckean Q6th) district handicaps the re-
publlcans there, but it ought not to prevent
victory. There are other causes which cloud
the prospect in the 18th (Scranton) district but
the reelection of d. A. Scranton over d. w.
Connolly seems certain.
THE PHILADELPHIA PROPHECY.
Aside from Harmer's district the district in
which Republican candidates may win. but
seems in danger Of defeat, are the 9th
Chester district-in which Everhart faces J.
Edward Clyde, and W.T. Pennyparker, prohibi-
zionist. one of the competitors for the republic
can nomination. the fredericksburg district
where an independent, John McCleary divides
the vote which would naturally 60 to ST. F. Barr,
and may bring in H. Mccormick, democrat; the
15th-Bradford, in the northeast corner of
the state-where E. Overton is endan-
gered IN the same way by c. G. Jadwn,
sitting member, to the advantage of
George A. Post, democrat; the 17th-Somer-