Smyrna times., 1881-08-31
Will Prices Go Up or Down2
A TALK ABOUT GRAIN AND PRODUCE SPEC
ULATIONs-CROP PRosPECrs-ART-
IFICIAL PRICES, HIGH AND
IOW-THE TIME TO
SELL, ETC.

SELL, ETC.
In the present rage of speculation in
grain, etc, the following explanation of
the ways and doings of the "bulls' and
clears" will be of very great interest. 1t
is from the pen of Mr.. Orange Judd, in
the american Agriculturist for September.
row GAMBLING IN GRAIN, ETC, is DONE.
During two or three years past, and
never so greatly as now, the methods of
the Stock Exchange have introduced into
the produce markets, and hundreds of
men, in leading cities, notably in Chicago,
Toledo, st. Louis, Baltimore, Cincinnati,
and New York, are daily betting millions
of dollars upon the probable prices of
wheat, flour, corn, oats, lard, pork, bacon,
etc. To illustrate: Mr.. A. offers to de-
liver to Mr., B, a million bushels Of No. 2
Red wheat at 1.22 per bushel, on the 3lst
day of August, though he (Mr. A. does
not own a single bushel of wheat, and
does not expect to. Mr.. b. takes the
offer, and makes deposit of a small por-
ton of the price or margin" In this
case Mr. A, is said to he 'ishort," and
Mr. B, 'long." Mr.. A. is short of
what he has agreed to deliver. If the
closing sale of this grade Of wheat ON
Aug. 81 is only $1.20, Mr. B. pays Mr., A.
cents bushel, or $4,000. But if the
price is $1.25, Mr.. A. pays Mr.. B. 3 cents
bushel, or $4,000. Usually no wheat is
actually delivered. Sometimes, however, if
there is alimited supply of wheat available,
| and Mr.. B. has capital enough, he secretly
buys up all there is; he getsupa Corner"
in wheati and when settling day comes,
he may require Mr.. A, to deliver the
wheat, or he may get others to try to buy
! it, while he refuses to sell until 81 80. or
81 LAO, or even $3.50 is offered, and the
price of the day is fixed at that rate. In
the last named case Mr.. A. would have to
pay him the difference between 81 % and
$1.59, which on a million bushels would
be 2Sx1 ,00O,O 900 or $280,OOO. If, on the
contrary, the price could he beat down on
the settling day to 81 per hushel, Mr. b.
would have to pay Mr.. A, g! cents a
bushel, or $4,000. We have named only
two individuals, but there are hundreds
or thousands of persons doing the same
thing, some betting on few thousand
bushels, others on hundreds of thousands,
and few heavy operators on millions.
In timeR of excitement and activity the
! speculative 'sales" Of wheat during few
days amount to more than the entire sur
plus crop of the country during year,
The operators are in two classes, those
| like Mr.. A. are Shorts" and those like
Mr.. B. are ''lOngs." Precisely the same
operations are taking place with reference
to other grades of wheat, corn, oats, lard,
pork, etc. The same man often operates
in several kinds of produce, and may be
''shOrt' of one and ''long" of another.
One speculator will often be short for
August deliyeryi long for September ;
and short or long for October, or for "the
year."
GENERAL CONCLUSIONS AS TO SELLING.
The leading facts and circumstances on
both sides are set forth above. The great
operators in grain and other products,
both "bulls" and "bears," have immense
sums at stake. They are each spending
large amounts of money to privately
ascertain the actual facts of the case, and
are far better informed than ordinary
farmers or dealers can be. Indeed, the
common mass Of spectators take their
cue from the movements of these leaders.
If prices were sure to go up in the future,
the bulls would buy all the wheat offered
/ et present, and even higher rates. If the
bears were RpFe ef 2 decline, they WOULD
not buy at any present rates, but would
oversell the market very largely. For
ourselves, we believe future prices arc
jHst abopt as likely to go up as down, or
down as up. So, thp only safe rule for us
is, to sell when ready, to take as little
risk as possible of damage in storage
and being ready, and having sold, to
simply say, 81 have done the best ]
could" Then if prices go down, say
"Well l was lucky" II they 30 up, ~
might have done better TO hold on, but Il
had it might have been different, and so ]
viii not worry over it,"
4