Morning journal and courier., 1881-05-19
VennOr's Predictions.


 The semi-annual change of weather prob ably occurred on Sunday, April 24th, and the six months summer has commenced through out the northern hemisphere. This event has thus happened ten days ahead of it's average time, perhaps in some relation to the fact that last fall the opposite change oc- cured three weeks before it's average time Con October 17th). The present is, there fore, a suitable occasion for noticing the sue cess thus far of MT. Vennor's predictions published in his almanac for 1881. The ma jority of these annount Sments are phrased in a diction so loose that entire non fulfllment would be impossible. Of such it is idle to treat In this category we include the fol- lowing extract from the ''probabilities'' for January last: 'The second quarter will open with heavy snow falls and terminate in a cold snap" Now, since snow or cold snaps occur every three or four days in our winters, and the word quarter is designedly safe method of predicting it would be almost impossible to refute such a forecast or any ''quarter" what ever. But deJ571Ste announcements possess a test value for in these guesser would be correct exactly half the time. Now, in this class of forecasts MT. Vennor has not had the luck of an average guesser, as will ap pear from what follows 1T expect block ades of snow in the United States about the 7th and sth of January" Both of these days were fair. The announcement for February contains the most signal failure which ill chance could concoct. ''Thaw (which will be interrupted by brief ] cold spelD will extend from about |! the 18th of January up to the 18th of February, with balmy, spring like weather prevailing in many parts, and snow rapidly disappearing" In many win ters the cunning ambiguity of 'brIef' and about" would have saved him but the past winter had no mercy on prophets who prated of thaws and spring like weather, located 1lo k1aip apn1la difnita1u in6afi. niteIy. We doubt whether anybody whose a.ocation called him out of doors during the above twenty five days will have any hesita- tion in asserting that a grosser error could by no possibility have been committed. Re- curing to the actual figures of the thermom- eter, as recorded daily at sunrise, we find that from January 18th till February 7th the mer- cury was not above freezing on single day and on no morning during January, Febru- ary or March did it reach 400. So much for the long thaw and the balmy, spring like weather. "This term will be followed about the 16th by storms, previous to the setting in of colder term" The coldest day in Febru- ary was the 2d
 For March most of the announcements are vague, and i4 ordinary times would. there fore, be accepted as correct by persons dis posed to be lenient. But not even Mir. Ven nor's cautious ''the month will probably end lamb like" contained particle of truth. There was not one mild day in the month, and on the last two days snow fell "On the 9th and 10th gales are probable" Almost any breeze or weather, except a drizzle, might somewhere be thought gale, probably" but on the 9th and 10th of March it drizzled. The only day on which a gale actually oc- cured was the 27th, of which MT. Vennor said nothing There will be a sharp frost in the beginning of April" CThere was nothing else from the 1st to the 18th but frost. 'tBut the spring will open favorahly, and everything will be pretty well advanced by April 18th" Farmers say differently. "Floods may be expected in Chicago about the first week in April" Rivers are usually high in April. The only question is, which week, and the freshet in Chicago dates only from April goth. "There will be warm weather just following the 2Oth." The weather became warm on the 24th; 50 this might have been claimed as an approximate hit had it not been spoiled by the mistaken prediction of snow on the 25th and 26th. The season changed for good, we believe, on the 24th, rendering snow storms out of the question for six months.