The Wheeling daily intelligencer. [volume] (Wheeling, W. Va.) 1865-1903, 1881-09-30
PROsPECTs OF THRYRAI,.
The Grain Trade ana the Forelgn X.
changes.


reason to but a limited extent from the ex-
peFience Of the last two years AS then,
the main factor must be the movement "a
breadstuas; but the conditions affecting
that movement vary widely from those of
1850 and 1879, As in those years, Great
Britain and France will have TO import
much beyond the usual quantity; but the
distribution Of the supply from which
they will draw varies materially from that
of either year. The United States may
have 75,OOOyOOO bushels less wheat for ex-
port than last year, and Russia may have
5O,OOO,OOO or possibly 100000 more than
thea,
This decrease in our probable exportable
surplus OF wheat makes hiatus in the
value Of our exports about equal in amount
to our net imports Of specie during the last
fiscal year, and therefore suggests a pFoba-
bility OF a material falling of from the last
two years rate OF imports Of foreign gold.
It would not be surprising II the volume Of
our merchandise imports should operate
towards like result. The imports, Tor q
large portion OF tho last fiscal year, showed
u considerable decline; the explanation
being, not that there was any cnrtail.
ment Of the demand for foreign goods.
but that q large portion OF the imports of
lS7D-S0 were carried over, in bonded ware.
houses, for last years consumption, 50 that
the value OF foreign goods actually mark.
eted in lSS0.Sl much exceeded that Di the
previous year. The stock OF merchandise
in bond has by this movement been great
ly reduCednnd, as all the symptoms pointtd
q very healthydemand for the winter trade,
1t would seem quite possible that the ini-
ports for the next few months may exceed
those OF year previous.
But while, under these circumstances,
England and France may hope to escape
such u severe transatlantic drain OF tho
precious metals as they sustained during
the lust two years, the question arises
whether they may not have to part With
gold In payment for the grain they ret
from other sources That result can III
present hardly be deemed probable. There
u little precedent to suggest II II any
European grain exporting country becomes
largely creditor In consequence Of unusual
exports, there are so many ways OF adjust
ing the balance through the mnltiiaIious
international machinery Of banking and
credit that such situation rarely fe
suits In any large transfers Of specie. The
precious metals rest where they arc most
needed; and tho settlement Is effected
through credits and exchanges Of securities,
the whole elastic machinery OF European
finances partiCipatingi In the process More
ever, II happens, In this particular case,
that the chief European exporter OF grain
will probably be large importer OF goods,
Russia trade has suffered q severe depfeas-
ion from the failure Of the last two yeafa
crops, and this years abundant harvest
will naturally create there an itcreaseide
nand for foreign goods; so that Russia's
imports may be expected To set OF Ia d
large measure the increase In her wheat
exports,
II the grain trade and the exchanges nro
likely to follow the general course above
indicated, II Is not easy To discover much
cause for uneasiness about the prospects of
the money market either here orin Europe!
New York banks receive little or no fe-
source from large amounts Of foreign gold
sent here In exchange for Western pro
ducts for recent experience has shown
that, as fast as the money arrives, II isBent
TO the interior In payment for the produce
forwarded for export. For the present sea-
son, however. an unusual element arises
from the fact that the better half of our
wheat exports will 20 from the Pacific
States whose shipments arc likely 10 he
double those OF ordinary years. The settle.
inents for those exports will hive 70 he
made through this city; and II u q some
what delicate question how far those trans.
actions may involve q transfer OF money
from New Yorkto San Francisco 1twould
be by no means desirable result II New
York should have to furnish considerable
amount Of cash to be transferred into
hoard In the pockets Of the farmers Of Cali.
fornia and Oregon. This Is q contingency
that deserves careful Watching; but itis per
lapstlle only serious one that hangs overthe
local money market and before II can be
regarded as q really serious one, II should
be ascertained whether the holders 6f this
grain arc not already indebted toradyancea
Of capi al owned at the East,
II appears TO be entirely safe to assume
that this year the West will not be able "a
makcany permanent withdrawalsof money
from the East, During the fall months
currency will liavcto be sent there for moy.
ing the crops, as In ordinary yeaN, but
also as in ordinary years, we may expect
those remittanCes 10 be returned before
January, Judging from all appeafances
the Western surplus Of products available
for export will be no more than is required
for the payment Of Western purchases
made at the East; SO that the money
sent thither in "cash" payment for pro-
duce sent East, will soon return In pay
ment for goods brought here on credit, and
there will consequently be no such hoard
Ing Of money In TINT section as has occur.
red during the lust two years. Indeed.
considering The failure oi the crops, Il
quite possibly may turn out that the West
Grn purchases at the East will exceed, this
year, the value OF their produce sent 10 Che
seaboard-fOrthe farmers are not in very
prosperous condition as the result Of the
two last harvests; In which caRe,
that section would have 10 return
some part Of the large amount II
money boarded there during the list two
seasons. This result, however should it
happen, would not be likely TO appear
until about the beginning oithe new year.
Upon the whole, therefore, there seems 10
be nothing In tile grain movement ualtul
lated to seriously hamper the cotfse Of the
money market That is likely to depend
much more upon the Treasury evenly adj
justing its redemptions Of government
bonds to its surplus reyente5 than upon
any other factor. 80
II, Us indicated above, tho money mar
kets Of London and Paris may probably
escape any important disturbance Of theft
cslsll reserves, there Is the less reason f0f
the apprehension, cherished In some quar-
tens, tint London may send hither large
amounts Of securities with detflment 10 tte
New York market. Taking all the factors
In the prospect as they stand today, Il
appears reasonable 10 eoncludethat tie exl
changes Of the next few months will f6la