The Abbeville press and banner. [volume] (Abbeville, S.C.) 1869-1924, 1881-01-19
The Value of Weather Prophecies.

A Washington letter to the Boston
Herald says: Professor Cleveland Able
of the signal service was asked to-day:
Has the weather bureau paid any official
attention to Mr.. Vennor's prognostica-
tionsP A. To test the accuracy Of his
work, we have occasionally compared
his predictions rs published in the news
papers, which accounts, Of course, con-
tain Geographic and typographical
errors for which Vennor is not response.
BILE, with the real facts. We find that
one.quarter Of lis predictions are veri-
fed, if they are intended for the St.
Lawrence valley. If they are meant for
this locality, as those who would give
him credit for predicting the recen.
storm here must believe, then not ten
per centum of his prophecies come true.
In view of his continued failures, one or
two br, liant successes would not justify
us in adopting his system of foretelling
the weather.
Q.-Upon what are his methods Of
announcing the weather based? Ale
keeps his system q secret to himself
There are, however, q few ways in
which Il comparatively truthful guess
can be made at the weather months
ahead. T. e first is by observing the
average weather during each month for
a long period. If we find that, for sew
eral months, the average has been wet
or cold, it may be predicted that, du. ing
the immediate succeeding months, the
weather will be the reverse, that is
dry or warm. Then we can get at the
matter in another way. When January.
February and March have certain
characteristics, tie latter part of the
year, October, November and Deem
Der, will have corresponding charac.
teristics. Thus the weather may
be foretold, in q genera sense, some
months ahead. But no mar in the
world has ever devised g. plan which
will foretell special storms on certain
days, or which will offer q genuine pre-.
diction for q long period in advance.
We are sometimes asked to give the
weather several days in advance in the
case Of festival occasions. Under favor
able conditions we can do this, with q
very good chance Ct successful predic-
ton. For instance: The chances are thai
the last few days of August will be
clear, because the records show that
this is the case five times to o1e. This,
Of course, relates to a particular locality,
and cannot be made to cover the whole
country. l suppose all Mr.. Vennor's
predictions are made by these methods.
Q.-Have you watched the weather
predictions of the New York Herald,
which are cabled TO Europe? Ayes,
sir. During the first months Of that
service l very thoroughly and carefully
compared their predictions with the
weather in Europe, and am satisfied
that there is not more than seventeen
per centum OF veriications in the pre-
dictions made by the Herald bureau
There are about twenty-five per ccntum
of a es that might be considered doubt
full, making a little more than forty per
centum of predictions which come near
the truth. A perfectly independent in
vcstigation was made by the director OF
the London meteorological office, and
he arrived at precisely the same figure
forty.one per centum. This is really no
better than could be done Ivy guess
work.