The daily gazette., 1881-06-25
From the Tribune.
Crop Estimate.

Crop EotAmat0s
The census report Of cereal products,
thouch ii embraces only the acreage and
yisld of 1879, will be regarded a. highly
importa,t. Fortunately ten years, the
eetimstes Of the Agricultural Depart
ment have been accepted as the only de-
tailed information obtainable as to the
production OF the several States.
It ID gratifying to find that, on the
whole. Il sustsins the estimates Of the
Agricultural Bureau more closely than
many had expected. The estimated
Yield of wheal In 1877 was ]48, ,766, $50
bushels; according to the census the
actual yield was 459, ,6o1 ,O93 bushels.
The difference, little more than . per
cent. appears to be accounted for BY the
fact that the Department estimates were
based upon supposed area Of 81, ,645, 900
acres devoled TO wheat, while this cen-
snss srSubrte 81, 1S7 ,O05 acres. As to corn
thS e1ttmates sf6r 1870 was 80 ,066, ,450
acres Ind 1,blT p01, 100 bushels the
census lrepoH Nis O., ,s26, ,052 acres and
1,y59,oOo ~ tnshsls--a difference OF
TIA Der cent. In acreage and 14.0 per
cent, In Yield. As 10 oats, the estimate
for 1879 was 10 ,eS2 800 acres and 36S, :
701 ,320 b ushels the census report II
II, 100. .O65 acres and 407 ,e7O, 7l2bushels.
In the aggregate, then, the estimates Ap-
pear to have erred at every point on the
side of safety.
Turning to details, however, we find
that the estimates were sadly In need OF
correction, and that comparative accu-
raey in the aggregate IL due only TO the
balancing OF serious errors In the esti-
mates for the several States. Thus the
estimate fell short Of the actual yield, ~
now reported, e,40O, 900 bushels in OHIO
or more than ~ per cent. 6,6O0, 900
bushels In Michigan, or nearly Is per
cent. 6,2OGO0O In. Illineis, 1890, 600 in
Wisconsin, 3,700 900 in Kentucky, g.
100000 In Indiana, and 2,700, 900 In
Minnesota- In these seven States the
difference is over s6,O0O,00O bushels.
On the other hand the estimates exceed
ed the actual yield 1900, 900 bushels In
the Territories, 6,200,O 600 in California,
6,50O,0VO in Tennessee 2,SOO,000 In
Pennsylvania, 1900, 900 in Missouri, and
1,800, 600 In lows. In general, the crop
OF the Northwest this side ofthe Missis.
sippi appears to have been underestima-
ted, and alto In Minnesota and Nebraska
the crop of the Pacific States, the Terri
tories and States west Of the Mississippi
appears to have been overestimated.
1t is natural that the estimates Of
the corn crop should have varied still
more widely. But the Bureau esti-
mates fell short of the actual yield
81, 600, 900 bushels in Iowa alone, 61,-
600, 900 bushels in Missouri, 30, 900, 900
bushels in Kansas, and $4,000, 600
bushels In 1llinois.s On the other hand
In Indiana the estimates exceeded the
yield. But is is not easy 20 understand
how the actual yield should have ex.
ceeded the estimate by nearly 80 per
cent in . great State like Iowa, il the
reporters upon whom the Bureau de-
pends for that State were not disposed
to keep back facts. &
Tho latest estimates of the Bureau
for the yield of 1880 were necessarily
based upon its estimates for 1879,
which appear as to some States to have
been decidedly In error. These errors
having been extended and magnifisd,
through the process of computing by
percentages, must in turn effect such
estimates of probable yield in 1881 as
have been published. Fer instance,
the estimated increase OF wheat in 1880
was about per cent In Michigan, or
nearly 100000 bushels. But this
was upon the supposition that the sue
ceeding crop was %, 778. 100 bushels,
whereas 1t was 80, 5y7, 097 acco, ding to
the census, and q gain Of per cont
would have given about $4,000, 600
bushels in 1880. If 1t In supposed
that there is to be decrease of 20 per
cent in the crop Of 1881 In that btate,
the true yield wsuld even then be al
large as the reported yield of last year.
Doubtless the Bureau. will lose no time
in revising its estimates for 1880 upon
the basis afforded by the census. The
effect in calculations % to the crop Of
this and future years may probably be
Of considerable Importance.