Savannah morning news. [volume] (Savannah) 1868-1887, 1881-01-21

SAVANNAH, January 20.-Editor Mo7nin0
News: Some things are hard to understand.
One is, the logical position of those econo-
mists who claim that at present prices cotton
cannot be considered as firmly established,
that under the present outlook our great
staple must decline in value. Ingenious
articles to this effect are being extensively
circulated through the press of this country
and elsewhere, to counterfeit the influence
of which upon the people of our own sec
ton, beg leave to suggest few circum-
stances contradicting the above theory and
pointing in the opposite direction.
In brief, the argument against cotton Is
about as follows: The present crop is con-
siderably In excess of last year's--beipp
not less than six million bales This is
really more American cotton than is re-
quisite for the worlds consumption, and
conse quentlY there will be surplus. The
planter is SO well satisfied with twelve M
cents per pound, that an enormous increase
OF acreage in cotton will certainly result.
These, | believe, are the strongest points
urged. We will commence with the last,
namely, with the questionable "twelye
cents"
1t is true that for some time mfddlipp
cotton has been worth Ia the neighborhood
OF that figure IN New York, but the three
important months of September, October
and November, the price was about eleven
cents or cheaper. Moreover, the great bulk
OF the. crop, and especially after the ad-
vance, has been of an inferior quality, re-
al'zing at the planters point of marketing
only eight, nine and ten cents, which gives
a much worse showing for the producer.
Let us look at the supply. For the week
ending to morrow (January 21st) the re-
ceipts at the ports promise to reach 1856, 900
bales-perhaPs one or two thousand more
decrease of $4,000 bales compared with
the corresponding period of last year. Since
September 1st we have had, say g.
$4,000 bales, against say $780,
OO0 bales last year, showing an
increace Of, let US say, just 100000 bales
Now, to affect this increase, the stocks at
interior towns are nearly 100000 bales less
than they were at this time last year, and
the overland movement, direct to mills,
about 75,OOO short, making an actual in
crease Of only about rs, 900 0ales-not Uery
large surely. The heavy volume of cotton
received from this time on last season was
due to the splendid fall and ia
precedentedly prolonged picking sea-
son, and certainly cannot be expected
this season with any show of reason, as
Tue WeaGner III every respect since some
time in October has been probably the worst
ever known for saving the last half of the
crop. The decrease, therefore, which Is
just beginning to tell. will, SO far as it 10
possible for human Judgment to foresee,
make Itself more end more felt, so that 50
far from our having crop of six millions,
there Is every probability that it will fall
considerably short OF last year's-sav not
exceeding five and a half millions at the
utmost.
The worlds consumption is annually in
creasing, hence, with crop equal to that
OF last year, prices should at least show no
depreciation; but, In point of fact, they are
now considerably less. Can they remain SO?
Farm work is everywhere delayed; moth
ing can be done with the crops which pre-
cede cotton in point OF time; preparation
OF the ground In such weather is impossi-
Bile. Contrary to Northern and
European theories, planters are generally
still impoverished, and, with such
a gloomy outlook for the planting
season, find the greatest difficulty In obtain
ing the necessary advances to begin work.
Cotton certainly will pay well at twelve
CENTS but not so well at nine or ten. Is 1t
not, to say the least, little premature to
argue an increased acreage next year from
such promises Aud does it not seem al
most incredible that New York and Euro
pean "bears" can succeed in depressing
prices under such circumstances
DEMoCRITUs.