Savannah morning news. [volume] (Savannah) 1868-1887, 1881-01-15
COTTON PROSPECTS.
The United States Cotton Crop fer
the Year s79-'SO, 5.76I.OOO Bales
An Increase of 6S7,OOO Bales
over Ghe Previous Crop.
Boston Advertiser.


1880, he says, speaking Of the estimates of
American crop formed year ago, they were
all wrong to the extent of from 500, 600 to
500, 900 bales, owing partly to the low esti-
mates of condition reported to the Bureau
and Southern Cotton Exchanges by their
various correspondents, but chiefly to the
exceptionally large amount of cotton grown
and gathered during the winter months In
consequence of the absence of frosts. IN
other words, but for that remarkable win
ter, last years crop would have been say
4OO, 900 bales less, or s, 1851, 900 bales; and 1
find the authorities generally agree with Mr..
Ellison In his opinion that the yield was
exceptional from cause stated.
1 would call attention to the visible sup
ply of cotton, as shown the following
1850, 1,253, 900; '79, sSS, 900; '7S, 1,O6S,-
600; ~, ,465, 900; '76, 1,75l, ,OO0 '75, 1891
600; IA, 1911, 900; '73, 1,S3S,OOO; ~, $685.,
600.
Also to the stock of American cotton same
date In Great Britain:
1880, $4,000; ,7s, $1,000; '7s, 876, 600;
'77. 4O5 900; re, 35S, 200; rs, 374, 600; IA,
283, 600; '73, 233, 900; '72, 15S, 900.
United States stocks September 10:
1880, $4,000; 10. 10000; '78, 1o9, 600;
IT, l64, 900; rs, IS, 700; rs, 10000; IA,
$4,000; '7S, 100000.
1t will be seen that the total stock of
American cotton, September ~, 1850, In
Great Britain and America was 46l 900
bales, which was hardly more than the
quantity unexpectedly added to the crop by
the remarkable winter. 1t is evident, then,
that the advanced prices in cotton last win
ter were fully warranted until the additional
supply was assured. In my communication
to you, November II, 1879, 1 based my ar
gument for higher prices for cotton on light
stocks, the prospect of increased consump-
ton, and of a crop of about 5, 1O0, 900 bales,
the favorite figure at that time. The in
crease OF consumption proved greater, even,
than had been expected, SO much greater
that had it been generally expected cotton
must have ruled much higher, as no one at
that time looked for over {, 5,461 900, or 300,-
600 less than the crop finally showed.
1t was admitted by the Liverpool author
tiles, November i, 1880, that the supplies
expected from other countries being about
the same as last year, the consumption of
American cotton this year would be from
$500, 900 20 5, 800, 900 bales. unless checked
by high prices. IL the American crop
equalled the above figures, 1t would leave
the visible supply of all cotton In Septem-
Der, 1881, about the same as In September,
1880, which, as will be seen, was about 20
per cent. below the average for eight years,
aud 80 per cent. below the average for six
years, '72-TS. With the rapidly increasing
consumption of cotton, 1t would appear
only prudent that reserve stocks should be
increased rather than diminished, and all
who took broad view of the prospects
would agree with the Liverpool authorities,
that an American crop of fully 5000, 900,
was needed to supply this years demand
and leave a safe reserve stock. Messrs.
Ellison quoted the favorite estimate, No
vember l, as 5,750,C0O, with prospect of
100000, more or less depending on the
weather after November 1, 1880. Messre.
Smith, Edwards 81 Co. give the average
figure, November l, at 5.675. 900 bales.
careful analysis OF the reports to South
ern Cotton Exchanges to November l iRdi-
Gates 5, 1881 900, and of the bureau report,
came date, $500, 600, or say An average of
$3.50, 900 bales from the two sources. The
reports to December L show $500, 200 and
5,7l9,29, respectively, or an average Of
5,509, ,745 bales.
A comparison of the average this year
with the average the past four years, and
amount of crops obtained, shows: Average
90,O61 is 16 per cent. increase over '76 and
~; same increase of crop would give us
would give 5,323, 900; with '78 and '79
1854 900; with '79 and 80 6,193, 600; an
average of the four comparisons would give
1861, 900 bales.
Whoever reads the reports from all over
the South the latter part of October, and
the Importance attached to dry weather
from that date forward, and then notes the
weather reports to this date, will not be
surprised at the statement now frequently
made that we have had the worst picking
season for many years. The weather has
been severely cold all over the cotton belt,
frost commencing three weeks earlier than
last year, and any further growth of cotton
long since placed out of the question, the
anxiety being only to save what was already
grown. The early November frosts and
cold, rainy weather destroyed all unopened
bolls and dissipated all hopes Of the top
crop, which proved such an important item
last year. Many Southern correspondents
estimate the crop at from 5, ,250,0 600 to
800 600 bales
The crop receipts to date are 300, 600 bales
In excess of last year. Should they be the
same as last year from this time it would
give crop Of about 6, 6,060, 600. 1t is impos-
sible not to be Influenced somewhat by
early receipts, although past experience has
shown the danger of 1t. In the crop year
"a receipts to December 81 were 2l5, 79S
increase over previous year; crop proved to
be 337, ,397 bales less. In crop year '76 re-
ceipts to December 81 were 236, ,160 increase
from previous year; crop proved to be I83,-
S65 bales less. The yearly increasing facili-
ties for early marketing the crop must not
be forgotten. Both Messrs. Ellison, and
Smith, Edwards & Co., In their circulars of
december l, appear to look for 5, ,750, 900
and upwards.
From the various indications to this date,
as outlined above, have formed an esti-
mate of $3.50, 600 as being all we can safely
depend upon from what has been shown
thus far. 1t appears by the latest informa-
tion that while Europe will receive from
India about the same as last year, the sup
plies from Egypt will be less by equivalent
to over 100000 bales American. On the
other hand, by Ellison's circular to Decem-
Der 8, the consumption has thus far ex-
ceeded his estimates, having averagedR In
Great Britain 66,000 bales weekly against
62, GOO last year, and on the continent So, 900
against 81 600 last year. The actual tax
ings by English spiDners for nine weeks
from October Is to December IL averaged
09, 800 bales per week. Ellison says Novem-
Der 9: "Here, as on the continent, it is ex-
pected that decided amendment viii be
experienced during the new season, thanks
to the good harvests and the consequent
guaranteed improved general trade, and
therefore increased distribution of money
among the masses of the population" De-
ccmber 8, the same authority states the i'm
provement OF trade to have been better than
anticipated, especially on the continent, and
both dealers and manufacturers had very
light stocks, and the latter largely under con-
tract ahead. As regards the business outlook
in this country, l believe it is admitted On
every side that there has never been time
when the prospect was more favorable.
Such, then, Is the position to-day, with
visible supplies about the average of the
past ten years, invisible supplies far less,
and the Liverpool market 6 IL 10, against
an average of over III for ten years past at
this date. Supply and demand must regu-
late the price of this staple, and now that
steady and increasing demand is assured, ]
we must recognize the danger of our post
tton as regards supplies the past few years,
when an actual corner In cotton mas been
once seen, and several times likely, and
not forget that the extraordinary winter
alone saved us last year from a cotton
famine in September. Ample reserves con-
stitute the only safety where an article is so
necessary. No human foresight can deter
mine whether our crop this year Is to be
), 800 900 or 5000, 600, and the developments
Of the next sixty days VIII be anxiously
watched for. But with the prospects of
Increased consumption, consider the pres
ent price fair one, with a crop even of
5 900 900, at least until the next crop shall
have been successfully planted with favor
abe outlook. MERCHANT.
Boston, Dec. %, 1880.
-----%~-a~>$-----
Strange Weather In Chicago.