Belmont chronicle. [volume] (St. Clairsville, Ohio) 1855-1973, 1881-09-01
WHEAT.

The financial future of this country
depends SO largely upon the prospect as
to the wheat crop, and upon the demand
for American wheat, that the subject
may well he considered as one of the
first Importance. A vast speculation
in wheat has been in progress, and has
pushed the price upward more than Is
cents per bushel within the past ten
days. The August report of the Agrl
cultural Bureau has been issued, but it
fails to justify so great an advance in
prices. In fact, it presents a prospect
but little less favorable than that of u
ly l, upon which speculation has been
based for several weeks past. 1t indi-
Gates decrease of 10 per cent in spring
wheat, and II per cent in winter wheat,
whereas the July report showed de-
crease of II per cent in the crop as a
whole, and the increase of acreage does
not seem to be taken into account in Ell
ther statement. 1t is curious instance
of the effectiveness of the reports issu-
ed by the Bureau that no indication is
given of the comparative quantity of
winter or spring wheat grown in the
different States, although the statement
is based upon a separate estimate Tor
each. 1t may be presumed, however.
that the decrease will not be more than
is per cent, less allowance as should be
made for increase of acreage. This
would not make the yield less than 400,-
100000 bushels, provided the estimates
of the Bureau for the crop of 1880 be ac-
cepted.
There are good reasons, however, for
refusing to accept the estimate of the
Bureau for 1880. That estimate was
based upon the reported increase or de-
crease from the reported yield in 1879,
which proved smaller than the census
return for that year. The apparent er-
ror in some States, moreover, was sur
prisingly large-nOt less than 100000
bushels in eight States. If the report
for 1879 was in error, that of 1880 must
have been correspondingly erroneous,
and this view is sustained by the re-
ports of the San Francisco Produce FIX
change. The report of the Agricultural
Bureau puts the yield of 1880 at about
4S0,OO0,0O0 bushels. The consumption
for three years previous was not less
than 273, 100000 bushels for food and
seed, and both were larger in 1880 than
before. For example, an increase of
100000 in population yearly'implies an
increase of over 6,0OO,OOO bushels in con-
sumption of wheat. Hence not more
than 2OO,O0O,0O0 bushels can have been
left, after supplying domestic consump-
tion for food and seed from the crop OF
1880, and the official reports of the Bu-
reau of Statistics show that 175,0O0,000
bushels of wheat, including its equiva-
lent In flour, have been exported from
last years crop. This would leave only
25,000,00O bushels on hand, but the re-
port of the San Francisco Produce Ex-
change indicates that over 30,O00000
bushels remain on hand in the Pacific
States alone, and the official report for
Ohio showed that over 100000 bush
els of old wheat were on hand in that
State alone, May 1. Hence it may be
inferred that the Bureau estimate for
1880 was considerably too small.
If we have on hand, of old wheat from
the crop of 1880, nearly 50,000,O00 BUSH
els, it follows that crop of 9S0,000,000
or 4OO,0O0,OO0 bushels this year will sup-
ply as large domestic and foreign de-
mand. The foreign demand does not
seem likely to be as large as it was last
year, though the crops of England,
France and Germany are below average,
and recent dispatches show serious loss
es in Hungary, because the Russian
crop appears to be exceptionally good.
1t is now supposed that as much as co.
900, 900 bushels may be exported from
Russia, against about 9O,sOO,O0O bushels
last year. With no change elsewhere,
this would diminish the demand upon
this country by 3O,OOO,OO0 bushels, and
if present high prices are maintained
the foreign demand will surely be still
further diminished. Hence a very large
decline in yield-a larger than any au-
thentic report now warrants us in ex-
pecting-must be realized in this coun-
try before the large surplus of last year
and the new crop can he exhausted, with
diminished foreign demand.
These comparisons indicate that
the advance in the price of wheat from
81 one year ago to about 81 40 per BUSH
el now, has now been due to speculative
influences, rather than to any change in
the relation of supply and demand. Pos
sibly the same speculative combinations
may put the market up still more. But
the statistical position does not warrant
the advance which has already occurred,
and the chances are that foreign buyers
will get wheat at much less than the
present prices in this market, before an
other month has passed. Unless they
can, American exports of wheat will
probably be materially reduced for the
coming year-N. Y. Tribune.
THE Retreats for Habitual Drunkards
which have been established in England,
do not, according to the report of the