New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1881-08-23


The financial future of this country depends
so largely upon the prospect as to the wheat
crop, and upon the demand for American
wheat, that the subject may well be considered
as one of the first importance. vast spec
ulation in wheat has been in progress, and has
pushed the price upward more than - cents
per bushel within the past ten DAYS. The
August report of the Agricultural Bureau has
been issued, but it fails to Justify so great an
advance i'll prices. In fact, it presents pros
pect but little less favorable than that of July
l, upon which speculation has been based for
several weeks past 1t indicates IA decrease of
10 per cent III spring wheat, and per cent
in winter wheat, whereas the July report
showed decrease of II per cent in the crop as
a whole, and the increase of acreage does not
seem to be taken into account in either state
ment. 1t is n curious instance of the detective
ness of the reports issued by the Bureau that
no indication is given of the comparative
quantity OF winter or spring wheat grown in the
different States, although the statement is based
upon separate estimate for each. 1t may be
presumed, however, that the decrease will not
be more than IS per cent, less such allowance
as should be made for increase of acreage. This
would not make the yield less than 400, OOO. 900
bushels, provided the estimates of the Bureau
for the crop of 1850 be accepted
There are good reasons, however. for refusin,,
to accept the estimate of the Bureau for 1850.
That estimate was based upon the reported in
crease or decrease from the reported Weld i'm
1879, which proved smaller than the census
return for that var. The apparent error in
some States, moreover, was surprisingly large
hot less than 4O,OOOOO0 bushels in eight
States. III the report for 1879 was in error.
that OF 1850 must have been correspondingly
erroneous, and this view is sustained by the
reports OF the San Francisco Produce Exchange.
The report of the Agricultural Bureau puts the
yield of 1880 at about 4SO, OOO, 900 bushels.
The consumption for three years previous was
not less than 273, 000, 900 bushels for food and
seed, and both were larger in 1880 than before.
For example, an increase of 200, 900 in nom
ulation yearly implies an increase of over
100000 bushels in consumption of wheat.
Hence not more than 200, 900, 600 bushels can
have been left, after supplying domestic con-
sumption for food and seed, from the crop of
1880, and the official reports of the Bureou of
Statistics show that 175,O0O,0OO bushels of
wheat, including its equivalent in flour, have
peen exported from last years crop. This
would leave only 25,OO0,O 900 bushels ON hand
but the report of the San Francisco produce
Exchange indicates that over 10000. COO
alone and the official report for Ohio showed
that over 10000, 900 bushels of old wheat were
ON hand i'll that State alone, May l. Hence il
may be inferred that the Bureau estimate for
1850 was considerably too small
If we have on hand, of old wheat from tbe
crop of 1880, nearly 50,O00,O 900 bushels. il
follows that IL crop of 3SO00O,OOO or
4OO,OOO,OOO bushels this year will supply ~
large domestic and foreign demand. The
foreign demand does not seem likely To be os
large as it was last year, though the crops of
England, France and Germany are below
average, and recent dispatches show serious
losses i'll Hungary, because The Russian cron
appears to be exceptionally good II is now
supposed that as much as 10000, 900 bushels
may be exported from Russia against ahont
3O,OoO,00G bushels last year. With no cbongo
elsewhere, this would diminish the demand mon
this country by 10000, 900 bushels, and if nre.
sent high prices are maintained the FOREIGN
demand will surely be still further diminished
Hence a very large decline in yled-larCer
than any authentic report now warrants us in
expecting-must be realized in this country
before the large surplus of last year and the
new crop can be exhausted, with diminished
foreign demand.
These comparisons indicate that the advance
in the price OF wheat, from about ST. one wear