New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1881-07-21
UHE4T pROSPECT0

WHEAT PROSPECTS.
Much anxiety is felt in some quarters about
the wheat crop. During the fiscal year Just
closed the value of wheat and flour exported
was not far from $21O 1000 1t has been
represented that the country would have
scarcely any surplus wheat for export from the
crop of 1881, and the financial effect of such
IN important change in exports would I'M
doubtedly be great. General lie Due, the
former Commissioner of Agriculture, was re-
Gently reported at Chicago rs saying that the
yield of wheat would not exceed 34O, OOO, 900
bushels, and the statement was received with
great confidence and satisfaction by holders of
wheat III that speculative city If General LIE
Due is right, and if the yield of wheat is to be
140,000.OO0 bushels less than the estimate
made by the Agricultural Bureau for 1880. the
balance of trade between this and other coun-
tries will be quite seriously affected. At pres
cnt. however, the evidence leads to the belief
that the estimate of the Reconnaissance is
particularly erroneous.
The July estimate of the Department of
Agriculture. according to its official report is
that the condition of wheat averages for the
whole country only 80 per cent, taking the yield
of 1850 rs the standard, or 100 per cent. A
decrease of II per cent in the yield, if the csti-
mates made by General lie Due before his re-
tilcmcnt be accepted rs representing the actual
product of 1850, would give about zoe, OOO. 600
bushels rs the yield of 1SS1. But allowance
must he made, first, for the asceraincd inaccu-
Iacy of the Departments estimate for 1850,
and, second for difference of acreage.
Judging from the census report, the Depart
mrnt has been badly imposed upon by the
growing States OF the Northwest. Its report
for 1879 estimated II yield of 21i 900 900
bushels in Ohio, Michigan. Indiana. Kentucky.
Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota, while the
census showed a yield in that year of
90, log bushels in those States As the
Department estimates are made 10y computing
reported percentages of gain or loss uDon the
assumed yicd of the previous year. the e,ti-
mate for 1850 was probably even more crro-
neous is to these State, than that of SO. APP
parently the actual yield was more than
$4,000 bushels in excess of the Department
estimate for those States. If 50, the new c>ti-
mate for l~S1 should be formed 10y computing
the reported decrease upon the crop actually
raised in 1850, and would thus warrant a belief
that the crop Of lNNl would considerably cx-
cccd toe, 900 900 bushels.
The Department estimates of "condition ."
do not take into account any change in the
acreage sOWn. But it is known that in some of
the state, from which the most favorable re-
ports as To condition are received, there had
also been Il great increase in acreage. This an
pears To be the fact ~ to Minnesota and
Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas and Oregon. With
allowance for increase of acreage. the estimate
based upon reported condition alone would bc
still further modified, and the probable Weld
would be- sill larger.
Thorough investigation in the Pacific States
has led to the statement that the quantity of
wheat held over from lNNO in those States is
not less than - 900. 900 bushels. The official
report rs to Ohio shows that over O.OOO. 900
bushels remained over i'm the hands of pro-
duccrs in that State. 1t is hardly likely. if so
large IA quantity remains un~old in two or three
States, that the crop of $50 has been rs fully
sold as usual in other States, and commercial
reports show that the visible supplv east of
the Mississippi River is larger 10y 5000. 900
bushels than il was year ago. Hence il seems
safe to say that the country has on hand from
I0,00O,OOO to 10000, 900 bushels of the wheat
of lSNO, with which to supply any deficiency in
the yield of this year.
These considerations lead to the belief that
this country will he able to export within
3o,OOO,OOO or lO,OOO,OOO bushels rs much
wheat rs it has exported from last years CROP
provided the foreign demand be a, large. The
reports from Europe 10 not Indicate however,
that the deficiency in Europe will be is large aS
it was in lSSO-'Sl, for it has been necessary for
Europe, during the past year, not only to
supply consumption but to rcplcnish exhausted
stocks. If the yield should prove good in
Russia. and about the average in France aud
England, as recent dispatches Indicate tie
quantity required for foreign use from this
country would be at least 10000. 600 bushels
less than the quantity exported last year.
There Is now no reason to suppose that this
country Will not be able to meet thcsforcign ue-
mand if thus reduced.