Vermont phÅ“nix. [volume] (Brattleboro, Vt.) 1834-1955, 1881-01-07
NO. /.
weather Predictions.

yENNoR GUEssEs RIGHT ABOUT ONE TINE IN
FouR-AN INrEREsTGNG STATEMENT.
The United States Signal Service doubtless
has the usual contempt Of every profession
for its amateur rival, and the opinion of its
experts concerning the claims of Professor
NenuOr might be expected to express disbe-
lief in the value of his predictions. But,
apart from mere opinion, Professor Cleve-
land Abbo of the signal service presents
some facts regarding the comparative sue
cess and failure Of Professor Vennor's proph-
ecies which must have their proper weight.
Prof. Able says: To test the accuracy Of
Mr.. Nennor's work, we have occasionally
compared bis predictions as published in the
newspapers, which accounts, Of course con-
tain telegraphic and typographical errors for
which Nennor is not responsible, with the
real facts. We find that one.quarters Of his
predictions are verified, if they are intended
for the St. Lawrence valley. If they are
meant for this locality, as those who would
give him credit for predicting the recent
storm here must believe, then not ten per
cent Of his prophecies come true. In view
of his continued failures, one or two brilliant
successes would not justify us in adopting
his system of foretellng the weather. Mr..
Nennor keeps his system a secret to himself
There are, however. few ways in which
comparatively truthful guess can be made at
the weather months ahead. The first is by
observing the average weather during each
month for long period. If we find that for
several months the average has been vet or
cold, it may be predicted that during the i'm
mediate succeeding months the weather will
be the reverse, that is dry or warm. Then
we can get at the mater in another way
When January, February and March have
certain characteristics, the latter part of the
year October, November and December will
have corresponding characteristics. Thus
the weather may be foretold, in a general
sense, some months ahead.
The officers of the Signal Service who have
made meteorological phenomena a study for
years are satisfied that no man in the world
has devised plan which will fortell special
storms on certain days, or which will offer a
genuine prediction for a long period in sd-
vance. We are sometimes asked to give the
weather several days in advance in the case
Of festival occasions Under favorable con-
dtions we can do this with very good
chance of successful prediction. For instance:
The chances are that the last few days of
August will be clear, because the records
show that this is the case five times to one.
This, Of course, relates to a particular locali-
ty, and cannot be made to cover the whole
country. l suppose all Mr.. Nennors predic-
tions are made by these methods
Within the last 100 years there have fire.
| quently been students of meteorology who
have maintained that there were periods
which could be recognized as afording the
means of predicting, to some extent, the
weather in the future Some have connect
ed these periods with the moon, some with
the solar spots, and few with the planets.
All Of these systems have, in the course OF
time, been proven to be at variance with the
observed facts so that none Of them have as
yet been accepted by meteorologists of re-
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