New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1881-08-04
NETWORK DAILY TRIBUNE THURSDAY AUGUST d. 1881

wheat when especially gloomy accounts of the
coming crop are sent out through such channels,
and they have found the rule profitable one.
The reports of State authorities often vary by
many million bushels from the yield as ascer-
tanned by the census as estimated by the
Agricultural Bureau, and it has been shown
already that the estimates of the Bureau were
out of the way nearly 10000, 900 bushels for
five Northwestern States, according to the CEN
sus reports.
The estimates of the Agricultural Bureau
imperfect as they are, altogether surpass in cor
rectness any other information obtainable, ex-
cept for census years. When corrected by the
aid of the census returns just published, the
July estimate probably affords the best means
of judging in regard to the probable yield this
year. The Daily Commercial Bulletin has OBJ
tanned from the Bureau the details of its esti-
mate rs to condition July l of winter and
spring wheat separately. This estimate gives
general average of 83 for winter and 90 for
spring wheat, last years yield being considered
rs 100. 1t the acreage were the same, the esti-
mate would point to a decrease of II per cent
IN the yield OF winter and 10 per cent in the
yield OF spring wheat. On the supposition that
the proportions of winter and spring wheat are
about the same as in 1880, The Bulletin COM
puteS that the yield, no allowance being made
for difference of acreage, would be about
239, 436, 400 bushels of winter and 1873, O8S, 900
bushels of spring wheat. The total yield would
thus be Alp, 500, 400 bushels, but The Bulletin
calculates that 10000, 900 bushels must be
added for increase of acreage. The Bureau
reports an increase of 1 per cent in winter
wheat, but its incomplete data point to some
decrease in area of spring wheat. Upon these
data The Bulletin estimates that the yield will
be about 49,, 100000 bushels. AS that journal
is officially connected with the Produce Ex-
change, its sources of information and means of
judging are probably as good as any other
journal enjoys; and yet, if this is the best in
formation that can be obtained as late as the
I'd of August, it must be confessed that the
Fact is by no means creditable to the country.
Late reports give considerable information
from the great wheat growing districts of the
Northwest that is more than month later than
the information upon which the estimates of
the Bureau were based. 1t appears that in
Minnesota and Dakota, where the condition was
reported rs about 30 in June, several weeks of
favorable weather have made great change
for the better. All accounts from that region
now indicate that the yield of spring wheat will
be large 1t may be presumed that similar con-
dtions will be found to exist in the distant re-
gons of Northern Wisconsin and i'm Nebraska.
From Kansas all reports are decidedly more
favorable than n month ago, when the Bureau
reported the condition rs 23 per cen { less than
that of last year. In the light of these DIS
patches, it seems safe to estimate that the yield
viii exceed the quantity named by The ButietiR,
though it Is not easy to judge TO what extent.
More than once it has happened that The enor-
nous increase OF acreage III the extreme North
western regions, where emf gration is opening
thousands of new farms every year, has caused
the final yield TO greatly exceed all estimates
AS the condition of the crop is by all admitted
to be excellent in that region, and it is ac-
knowledged that there has also been an UNI
known increase of acreage in many localities, it
would not be surprising if the yield of wheat
this year should exceed 140, 000, 900 bushels
and thus surpass any other crop ever raised in
this country except the last.
With respect to the supply for export, how
ever, 1t is to be remembered that the stock of
old wheat on hand is unusually large. Elabo-
rate investigation by the San Francisco Pro-
duce Exchange, and reports by the authorities
OF several Western States, indicate that not less
than 10, 1000, 900 bushels of old wheat still re-
main III the country unsOld, and the probability
is that the amount is still larger since no esti-
mates whatever are included for the stock on
hand in several of the largest wheat-g growing
States. Hence there is little probability that
the quantity of wheat available for export from
this country, during the next twelve months
will be materially less than the quantity avail
able during the last twelve months of which
1t now appears, considerable part remains
unsod. If the yield of Europe should be
large, it is quite likely that this country may
have 10, 900, 900 bushels of wheat on hand that
it has not been able to sell, one year from this
time.