The Rock Island Argus. (Rock Island, Ill.) 1877-1885, 1881-02-19
Real and Unreal Weather Predictions

st. Louis Republican.
Mr.. Vennor in a letter to the
Montreal Witness was recently reported as
acknowledging the failure of his predlc-
tons for the first part of February. He
admits that the date given Tor the thaw is
''out" and the head of the thaw has been
misplaced" but thinks February will yet
bear: him out in his general deductions.
His Almanac predicts: The mild spell
with which January closes will probably
continue we'll into this month. with an ex-
osption of day or two. up TO the 18th OF
thesmonth. with balmy, spring ~like wealth
er prevailing in many parts" February,
however. opened with terrific cold in che
Northwest, between s20 degrees and 80
degrees below zero. the signal service re-
porting the I'd, % degrees. below zero at
Alpena; q degrees below at Marquette,
and 5 degrees beloVaat Erie, while the
thermometer dropped one degree below
zero even in this city. This docs not look
like mild spell sthough Mr.. Veuner
may perhaps count the LIST and
ID instant, as the two days he
excepted from the ''thaw." But un-
fortunately for his forecast the intense
cold continued until the 5th or 9th inst.
the thermometer being IL sdegrees below
zero on the 4th in the Upper Lake region.
and dispatch from Niagara Falls sstated:
The Niagara .river lis completely frozen
oyer here, and several persons crossed it
on foot this morning.
Other instances of the failure of his
weather system, if he has any. could be
pointed out. The more important thing,
however. is to mark sthe spernicious effect
of his long forecasts Governing a whole
year, in building the popular mind to the
necessity of industrious, svaried aud world
wide observation, on which: alone any
solid or real predictions can rest. Perhaps
the most valuable supplemental !weather
observations Ewould be such as Arago.
Herschel and Gen. Sabine many years
ago proposed, but which. as yet. have net
been undertaken. ITO careful observa-
tons of the temperature of the equatorial
seas of a few feet below the surface" said
MI OOhn AAoAoch'ts 5AOoiN iOoh lOI
normal results capable of being compared
from year to year, with view to bring
into view any secular or periodic changes
of mean annual temperature. He rea-
soned: There are vast regions of the
Pacific where over thousands of square
miles. wonderful uniformity of tempera.
ture prevails" and hence. if in any season
the thermometric observations showed an
unusually high or low temperature result
ing. as such anomaly inevitably would, in
an excess or deficiency of oceanic evapora-
ton, the character of the next season
whether wet or dry. warm or cold-might
DO measurably foreseen and foreannounc-
ed. This important line Of research would
yield solid results, as the recent weather
over this country and Europe. There is
reason TO bellows the suns force ia pow
exceptionally great Oh tLs equatorial
oceans. and the volumes of aqueous yapor
which it is raising from them correspond.
Aingly great: The obvious effect OF an
Excessive evaporation from these waters
9th the equatorial Pacific and equatorial
zlantie-would be the introduction of
aasslYelY moist air in enormous masses
#