New-York tribune., 1881-08-25
WHE4T 1ND CORN

me Odaty commercial bulletin has obtained
from the Agricultural Bureau q detailed state
ment of the acreage and condition of the spring
wheat and corn crops, August /, which is de-
cidedly more favorable, when intelligenty in
terpreicd, than the brcfer summaries hitherto
published. The report shows that the acre
age sown with wheat was almost pre-
cisely the same in 1881 as in 1850, Willie
the condition was only 81 in 1881, against So
IN August, 1850. Applying the latest averages
OF the Department, on the supposition that 40
per cent of the entire crop is spring and go per
cent winter wheat, The Bulletin estimates that
the yield of 1881 should be about 429 9O56. 600
bushels This is 1900, 900 bushels less than
the reported yield in 1850, but very much
more than the estimates usually made this
season.
Now that we have some detailed statements
as basis for calculation, it may be well to
point out some possible errors in the reasoning
OF The Bulletin. First, the proportion of
spring to winter wheat is assumed to be
the same as in 1869, twelve years agO.
but it is a well-known fact that the
great increase in wheat growing has been in
Minnesota, Nebraska and Dakota, whore there
is virtually winter wheat raised. In the
present computation, the difference haDpens to
be unimp0rtant, for the Bureau estimates
decrease of - per cent for July as to
winter wheat, condition" being reported as
So against 90 last year, without any details of
Increase or decrease of acreage, while the
condition of spring wheat in August is re-
ported as 81 against SO last year. Presum-
ably the increase III acreage Is mainly in
spring wheat, and the decrease in
yield, upon these calculations, should
be rather smaller than The Bulletin SUD-
n1fh fl1 Il
But it has become exceedingly important for
the Agricultural Bureau, if it means to make
its reports of any value whatever. to give
separate statements of the acreage of snripg
and winter wheat, else to abolish entirely
the misleading distinction in its estimates.
A second cause of dissent from the estimates
OF The Bulletin is that they are based upon
the supposition that the officially reported
crop of 1850 was substantially the actual crop
III that year. But facts have been given from
the census reports and other sources which
show that the Bureau estimate for 1880
was decidedly below the actual yield. In
a few States the difference WAS
nearly 4O,OOO,O0O bushels, and these are tbo
very States of which it is most important 10
| determine the yield in 1881. If it is true. as
other evidence indicates, that the actual Weld
| in seven Northwestern States was nearer
26O,O0O,OO0 than 223,OOO,OOO bushels in
1850 decrease of 20 per cent would make the
crop of 1881 about 20G,OOO 900 bushels
instead of 179,O00,O00 bushels, and the error
would correspondingly affect the estimate of
the aggregate yield. In short, there is daily
accumulation of evidence that the real crou
of 1880 was larger than has been supposed
and that the reported decrease in Weld will
leave the crop of 1881 much larger than MANY
imagine.
The detailed estimates as to the corn croD
given by the Agricultural Bureau, show that
the situation has been greatly misunderstood
1t is true, there has been q serious injury to
the grain, so that the condition for August
is reported as II against 90 in July
and % in August of last year. Bv
itself, this would imply decrease of
361 100000 bushels. But the Bureau also
reports an increase of 20 per cent in acreage
planted i'll corn, Allowing for this, the esti-
mate of yield in 1881 is LAS, 800, 600
bushels, or less than 10000, 900 bushels below
the yield of 1850. AS to this part of the report
we suspect that the statement is a little more
favorable than the facts now warrant. But n
decrease of 1OO,OOO,OOO or even $50, ,OOO. 900
bushels in the yield of corn would be but little
felt, because the production has for several
years been much in excess of the demand
Probably the farmers and the country would
be better off, at the end of the year. if the
yield of corn in 1881 should prove to be less
than l, 400 200, 600 bushels.