The daily gazette., 1881-08-18
From the Baltimore Sun.
Foreign Trade and Internal Trans.
p0rtatfon.

portatfon.
While there are no sufficient data on
which to found the opinion, there ap-
pears to be q general impression that
the grain crops will show smaller y ield
this season than for several years past,
and that our grain expectations for the
next three months will not reach the
enormous figures to which we have
grown accustomed. II the latest foreign
advices are founded on accurate esti-
mates, the Russian harvests promise a
bountiful yield, and It is thought that
after providing amply for last years
deficiencies, the Russian exporters will
be able TO send large surplus to Eng
land and wherever else 1t NAV be
needed. The wheat harvest in England
is now in progress, and estimates fix
the yield nearly at the average, while
that of France, it is thought, will not
reach the usual amount. The competi-
tion Of Russia and the improvement In
the English crops will, 1t is expected,
still further lessen out grain exports for
the next twelve months, and naturally
produce corresponding shrlnkage in
transportation receipts and q falling off
In other lines of business. The New
York Commercial bulletin, without
committing itself to any positive predic-
tions, and simply discussing the subject
from what may be called a hypothetical
standpoint, presents calculation as to
the possible decline In wheat exports
which is at least worthy of attention
On the supposition that the foreign mar
kets will require 0,000, o. 0 bushels less
than last year, and that our exportable
surplus will bs only 120, 900 600 bushels,
it e;timates that California and Oregon
will have 66,000,000 bushels available
for shipment, leaving only $4,000, 900
for export from the Atlantic ports. For
the year ended June 80, 1881, the total
expectation of wheat and -four from
this country was 100, 900 900 bushels, of
which about 30,000,0C0 were shipped
from Pacific ports and 160,00O,O0O from
| the Atlantic ports. The difference be.
tween 81, ,000, QUO and 160,O0O,0O0 is A
large one, and would lessen the railroad
revenues of 1sS1-82 by $25, 600, 900, as
compared with their receipts TO. whea,
transportation during the precedinf
twelve months. "a diminutlon In thu
exports OF Western products means
corresponding reduction In Western pur
chases Of Eastern and imported mer.
chsndlse, which will tell upon the west
ward freights Of the roads," This prob
able curtailment of our export trad,
and transportation business, tile Bullet,
thinks, necessitates "the prudent takin,
in OF sail, or We have to meet the un
welcome consequences of O sudden col
lapse"
This advice 10 sound and sensible, bu
it should be remembered that the calcL
ation upon which 1t 10 based is foun,
upon premises which, As our contem
porary Itself points out, are purely by
potheucal. Nothing is more uncertain
except an election or The decisi DC of
Jury, than the results OF q harvest, an,
1t is more than likely that when ou
grain crops are all gathered in tb,
snrinkage will by no means reach th,
estimate mentioned. Neither Ia IL possi
0le as yet to cay how much NAV h,
: wanted across the water, or how far IN,
French and English yields NAV disap
point expectation. Even If there be-
, falling OH In the expectations OF bread
stuffs, we may be able TO make up III,
difference In other articles of export, apt
II not to reach the splendid record O
the last twelve months, at least to pre-
vent The scale from kicking the beam
For the year ended June so, 1881, on
exports exceeded In value 5000, ,3I9, ,473
and the value of Imports was S842.
593, ,219, being an excess Of EXPORT
over imports OF $259, ,728,254. Ths
value Of the breadstuffs exported wa,
$285, SOC, 600 against $3.50, 100, 900 th,
year before. This was falling of il
the expectation of breadstuffs Of SIG,
100000, and yet there was an increas.
In the total exports Of $66 68O, ,SI5
Our grain trade is undoubtedly an i'm
mense factor in our commercial pros
perity, but IL does not constitute oul
sole reliance, and even should 1t con
tinue at the fiood-tide which has char
acterized IL for the past few years, ".
may reasonably hope that when II di
minishes some other of the innumerabls
products Of this wonderful land viii
lind foreign market and fll the gap