Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1881-12-15
Weather Philosophy.

TER PREDICTED.
To the Editor Of the EVENING STAR
Are climatic changes governed by natural law'
IL So is the tracing of that law within the power
EFF seience'
If the sun and moon. in their eyer-varyng mo-
tons around the earth, cause ever-varying tidal
wares in the great ocean of waters they must pro-
duce similar. but far greater and more striking re-
suits on the still yaster and more flexible ocean
of the earth's atmosphere. Nor can it be
reasonably doubted that the attracting power of
the larger planets must exert a sensible effect
on the great atmospheric ocean though their in
nuence be entirely unappreciabie on the watery
one.
These are the chaneabIe factors of the weather
problem. That of the moon is repeated every
nineteen years. very nearly. That of the plan
cts, in cycles SO vast as to make it. practically
impossible to make use of it in that form. 1t is
the only complex ditfict 1t part OF the prob
lem. All the others are simple and admit of an
easy solution. As to the complex planetary one
il can only be solved bv an application of the
problem of the three bodies. in conjunction with
long aud careful observation of the various
several aad combined effects of the planets In
this way only eau science grasp the amount of
perturbation resulting at different times and ap-
ply it To the { fleets of the Othe known factors
IL Is fact. well known 10 astronomers that the
earth. the sun and the moon occupy the same
relative position. very nearly,
EVERY NINETEEN YEARS.
Consequently. whatever influence the sun and
moon exert on the weather. ought to be re-
peated, almost exactly, at each return of the
cycle This IL really does except so far as the
result is affected by the varying complex effect
Of planetary perturbation. The amount OF this
perturbation will be in exact proportion as the
attracting force of the planet operates i'm con-
junction with one OF more of tine Others. or i'm
opposition to them, is separate and ndepen-
dent in its action The amount of this peTturl-
Ing force can never be very great. and is con-
stantiy oscilating between its maximum and
minimum results. Now. the chief weather
Factors are the earth. the sun and the moon
1het being very nearly in the same relative
position every nineteen years. must produce
very nearly the sane general phases of the
weather. less the ever varying effect of the per-
turbing inference of planetary attraction. Ii is
evident. then. that the out.on OF the weather
problem depends on our ability to compute at
least approximately. the amount of pertJlrbno
planetary influence eXcrted ut any one particular
TINE and place This is certainly within the
sphere OF scientific achievement: nor can its
accomplishment he long delayed.
CASES IN POINT.
it was during the unusually severe and long
continued winter of 1866. that my attention
was hrst turned to the lunar cycle as a mode of
determining the most prominent general phases
oil the weather for any future time. | found
That 1870 was just four lunar cycles from the well
remembered hard winter of 1880 | was strongly
impressed with this remarkable coincidence
and its evident and important significance On
further investigation. i found that from 1870 to
1856. there had occurred every nineteen wears
winter of remarkable severity This gave me
sufIicIeHt confidence i'm the cycle theory to ven
lure the prediction that the winter of 1S.i-15
just nineteen years from 1856 would be one of
uncommon severity 1t came and was pre-
eiseiy such a one as its cycle demanded.
OTHER CYCLE WINTERS.
i then began to look after other cycle win
ters- i remembered that 1S4l-2 was an un-
commonly mild one, and that Of 1928 one of
unusual severity / remembered also that on
their next return, nineteen years after they
fully verified the cycle theory. / then predicted
and published in the newspapers, that 1S19-SO.
the next cycle winter of 1SfI-2 would be I'M
usually mild. followed with spring of unusual
warmth and earlinesS; that 1SSO-S1 the next
cycle winter OF lSi2-43. would be one of deep
SHOWS and intense cold. followed bv late
spring These predictions were all fully yeri-
hed- But. remembering that the summer of
aSi3 was very warm. and distinguished for
heavy rains that fell in July and the early part
OF August. | informed the people that they
Ml9nt expect something similar in the summer
of 1851.
WHEN THE THEORY FAILED.
But it did not come. Instead of heavy rains
there was exceeding drought. June was more
tnan unusually wet, and made as / predicted.
good oat and hay crops. Early planted potatoes
We're also good But the corn crop failed as il
does not often fail in Chester county The pre-
dietiOn failed not through any unsoundness of
the cycle theory. bat because due consideration
was not given 10 the very unusual amount of
planetary perturbilg influence, exerted almost
IL in III
mer. 1t is worthy of note. that during the
great drought, there We're heavy rains in New
England and on the eastern coast of the south-
ern states In September and October there
were immense floods in the Mississippi region.
In August. when the drought was at its height
here, the English harvest was nearly ruined by
excessive rains On the Continent and i'm the
. west indies. there were unprecedented floods
during the great drought here. These exam
pies show that drought and flood run i'm narrow
veins, movable. we NAV suppose i'm any
direction. by the pcrturbing power of planetary
attraction.
WHY 1T FAILED.
That this was the real cause of the change
IN the dry and Wet areas is rendered almost
certain by the fact that the relative situation of
the planets in the summer Of1S4 is as different as
IT well can be-from what it was during the sum-
mer of 1881 The truth is there is a drought or
dry period sometime during almost every year
Ii is only when it occurs in midsummer and
seriously INJURIES the crops that it attracts any
considerable notice. In 1913 there was not much
ram IN October and November but rs drought
then could do no injury il excited no particular
attention. In looking over the several midi
summer droughts that are known to have oc-
Cured during the last hundred years. | have
become fully convinced that they do not i'm MANY
instances. obey the cycle rule. 1t will there
fore. be necessary in order TO predict with any
certainty the particular locality of dry or wet
area, to take into careful consideration the Der
turning influence OF planetary attraction as COM
pared with that of some other dry or wet period
This can only be done with absolute correctness
oy the use Of scientific appliances not now at
my command.
A PREDICTION on THE CYCLE THEORY
AZ 1 published two years ago, the present win
ter, according to the lunar cycle rule, should be
amoderate one. with but little snow that will
make good sleighing. The spring following
should be an early and bright one This predIc-
ton may be in a slight decree modified by the
extraordinary relative position now occupied by
the nearest and most conspicuous of the planets