New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1881-11-01
THE PROSPECTIVE COUNTY VOTE.

| lltical light over the county llcheJ Ill JnlS CITY
resemble, in its general features of double
Democratic ticket, the Gubernatorial contest of
1879, but the registered vote is practically the
same now as then. In 1879 we registered
| I67, 1877 votes; this year 170,419 voters have
| been booked. The difference of 1852 is less
| than the natural increase of two years by the
arrival at legal age of young voters, of whom,
rs figures show, the majority, even where
sons of Democratic parents, attach themselves
to the Republican party.
The vote of 1879 fell of from the registration
| 1912, or about 1917 per cent In that year
many Republicans scratched Governor Cornell
it will be recalled as the year of the Young
| Scratchers,p who in the interest of Robinson
and under the tutciage of Tilden endeavOred
TINS TO neutralize the effect Of Kclly's bolt
and the loss was largely Republican, The pres
cnt is an of ycar" .: less interest is taken than
in the Gubernatorial canvass; and we may,
therefore, calculate on as large percentage Of
loss this year as there was in 1879. The same
nercentage deducted from the registration of
| 1881 will leave n vote of 1872, $50. We do not
believe it will exceed that figure, and it may
fall as low as $50 600.
We have carefully scrutinized the figures by
| Assembly districts by comparison with the reg
istration both Of last year and that of 1879.
! Comparison must be made with last year to
reach a basis of calculation of the total vote OF
the two parties at the coming election, for the
conditions which reduced Governor COrnelrs
vote in 1879 do not threaten the Republicans
this year while the conditions Of division ex-
listing then remain to split the Democratic vote
between two factions. There is great cncOur-
agcment for Republicans in both of these
analyses.
By comparison OF the registration of last year
in the four Republican districts, the With,
XIth. XIIIth and NXlst, with that of four OF the
strongest Democratic districts, the With,
With IXth and XVIIth, the falling of is
found to be precisely the same, about % per
cent. The same districts, compared in the
matter of the registration of 1879, show no
gain for the Democrats; and taking all the
other Democratic districts into the calculation,
there is a loss of the mcrcst fraction. The loss
in the four Republican districts is 3S per cent
more than it ought to be, it is true but not 80
much as was anticipated when the canvass
began as a consequence of Republican indiilcr
cncc which followed the Democratic union on
McKcon for District Attorney. 1t is a loss not
greater than will be made up by the increased
vote and by the numbers of independents who
will act with us because Of the superior position
on local issues of the Republican candidates.
We conclude that practically the vote between
the two parties will be in the same proportion
as last year, but in the following estimate, for
greater safety, we deduct from the Republican
vote the apparent loss of 3.S per cent as well rs
the undisputed falling OIL OF % per cent which
both parties must expect from last years Prcsi-
Dental vote.
The respective votes of the two parties last
year were, in round numbers, Democratic,
1913, 900; Republican. $1,000. Reducing
these by the probable percentage of loss in
dictated by the reduced registration, namely,
% per cent, we have Is the probable vote I'll
year, Democratic $4,000; Republican, CISCO.
Further dcducting the apparent loss Of 3.S per
cent in the Republican registration. we have
81, 800 rs the total Republican vote i'll round
numbers. Add the totals of the two party votes
together and we arrive at practically the same
figures reached 10y the previous calculation of
the probable total vote of this year.
of course this Republican vote is not adc
ouatc to overcome the united Democratic vote
which will be cast for Mr.. McKcon for District
Attorney; but now to divide their own vote of
g3. 600 in such way rs to carry either of the
Democratic county tickets is the problem which
troubles both camps Of the common enemy.
There is no reason to believe that Tammany is
weaker than it was in 1879, when 1t east
IL. 900 machine votes for Kelly as the leader of
n bolt There is every reason to believe that
the candidates of the County Democracy are
weaker thar Robinson WAS, for of the lattcr's
go, 900 votes in the county some were those of
Republicans who scratched Cornell and voted
for Robinson. Nobody doubts that united as
they now are the Republicans will poll many
thousand more votes for their county ticket
than they did in 1879, when the total was only
10000. We are utterly unable to perceive any
existing conditions or circumstances which in
dictate the great superiority OF one faction of
the Democrats over the other. On the con- |
trary, the ordinary signs indicate that the two
factions are pretty fairly matched in strength, |
and that neither is superior or even equal to
the Republican strength. At any rate Repub- |
icans are justified in looking upon the situation
in this encouraging light. And thus reasonably |
confident of their ability to win, they ought to |
employ every means consistent with the honest |
and free conduct of a fair election to bring to
the polls every Republican voter for the |
straight ticket, and to discOuntenance and sup |
press trading of every kind whatsoever. The !
very fact that we arc running a straight Repub-
lican ticket to win and that we will be parties |
to no "diclier," big or little, will add some
thousands of votes to our total, and augment it |
to 10000 at least, leaving the Democrats to
divide the other $1,000 among them rs best |
they may. The signs are all Of victory for
straight, out-and-out, no dicl,crn Republican |
ticket such as has been presented.
The world moves but slowly in the direction of |
DR.. lie Moyno's hobby, but it does move. Buda-
Pesth aud several other Hungarian towns have de- |