New-York tribune., 1881-07-13
NEw-YoKK DAILY TRIBUNE WEDNESDAY, JULY 1s 1891

main premise on which this ominous con-
cusion is based is the assumption that the
stability Of the New-York money market
depends entirely upon its power to drain gold
from Europe This seems to be spcc;ous rea-
soning. Ii will not be safe, however, for
Americans to blink the fact that the economic
experience Of the century proves that financial
Tanics are periodical, occurring after regular
intervals Of about ten years. From 1873 to
1881 the pendulum has passed over the greater
part OF the arc through which it usually swings.
Prudent Americans should recognize this ten
dency, and not only they but prudent English
men also, for the pcrodety Of panics is a prin-
cple that applies equally well TO both countries.
The nervous agitation Of these foreign critics
promotes reciprocity in croaking. There NAV
be no better opportunity than this of reminding
English economists of a remarkable prediction
made few years ago by the United States
Consul ut Manchester Mr.. Albert ID. Shaw.
" The popular sentiment now" he wrote in his
annual report to the Department of state, it
us undoubtedly true, is overwhelmingly in
"tavor of free trade; but, with increasing dis
"trcss among manufacturers with drooping
"industrics &ld failures on every hand, with
"diScontentcd and idle operatives it is ONLY
"reasonab'e to expect that English manufac-
tuners Will, as Il measure of relief and n prom
Use Of better results, insist on reciprocity
in trade or reciprocity in tariffs. -. | am
"fully convinced that before many wears mass
" England will reverse her present commercial
"pohcy to foster her grand manufacturing in
"duStrcs. unless nations with whom she com
"petes speedily adopt II policy more in sym
rathy with that apparently so popular within
:" her own borders. Manufacturers, not unlike
"alnlieS grow restless after n time at being
" fred upon, without the privilege of returning
/" the fire"
MIR. Shaw's gifts of prophecy were ridiculcd
at the time by leading English journals. but thc
laugh would not he wholly at his expense now.
Oar regular London correspondent recently
tccgraphcd that the reciprocity theory was
gaining converts among manufacturers and
operatives in every quarter of the United King
dom, anh that the Conservative leaders were
seriously considering the advisabiliiy of max
ing 1t party cry. Every foreign mail brings
fresh evidence of the rapid growth of Il public
sentiment III favor of some modification of the
commercial policy of England Election agents
are impressed with the fact that Il special plea
in favor of reciprocity OF trade or reciprocity of
tariffs is u popular one with the dissatisfied
masses. The Preston election, in which the
Conservative candidate largely increased his
majority after making series of speeches that
were markedly ProtcctioniSt in tone, proved
this TO be true, and some of the slrcv,lcst Oh
servers are predicting that the next great politi-
cal contest in the country will be fought out on
the lines of Free Trade versus Fair Trade
The collapse of the negotiations fer the renewal
OF the commercial treaty with France, which is
now virtually conceded, the gradual extension
OF the CorUn of Protcctionist tariffs until the
whole world seems to be lcagucd against the
United Kingdom, the widespread ruin of the
agricultural classes and the increasing burdens
OF hard times and poorly paid labor, create
feeling OF unSteadincsS and unrest combat
i've nation already wants to return the fire"
so that it may be necessary before long to warn
American manufacturers against the prospect
of the imposition of rctaliatory tariff upon
goods entering Great Britain.