Savannah morning news. [volume] (Savannah) 1868-1887, 1881-03-15
THE GREAT COTTON CROP.
A Blue LOokOuE for she Future OF
the Market.


Nelc York Evening Post, March II.
Having been favored from time to
time by the best informed member of
our Exchange with the sight of many
kilograms and letters respecting the
quantity and condition of cotton on the
plantations and unpicked, and coupling
this valuable intelligence with informa-
ton kindly contributed by other friends,
we were enabled to state on 7th Febru-
airy that the crop might reach $3.50. 600
bales. This estimate was considered ex-
trsvagant; nevertheless recent develop
ments point to q still higher figure.
Present indications should prepare all
interested in the article for the proba-
bility of final yield of $3.50, 600 to g.
500, 900 bales. That continued rain and
frost late in the fall do not materially
diminish the quantity has been proved
in former seasons, as repeatedly referred
to in these columns; and this present crop
was, moreover. distinguished by vigor-
GUS maturity. The large acreage planted
and extensive use of fertilizers, with en-
tirely favorable weather. would have
made yield of $500, ZOO to 1000, 900
bales by no means impossible. Both
these considerations must have been al
together lost sight of, or a large majority
could not have clung with extraordinary
pertinacity and so long to low estimates,
say ). 600 600 to $500, 900 bales.
On the 7th of February we showed
that even a crop of 100000 bales
would leave a surplus, everywhere, of
GOO, coo bales of actual weight, or &c.
600 bales of 400 pounds. Every
where" is to be understood as referring
Al = - I'LL l.
and invisible, and surplus" as mean
ing excess of supply over consump-
ton. Low prices will tend to increase
consumption, and some of our crop
may be kept back; but may it not be
fairly assumed that the surplus will grow
to 750, 600 TO 500, 900 bales. That there
will be greater amount of low quality
is granted, also that there will be more
waste in spinning. Against the latter
the heavier weight of American bales
is TO be taken into account; the CHrORicLe
makes the average of six months 492
92100 pounds, against 481 $500
pounds per bale, the average of all twelve
months last season.
The question asked on February z, how
increased estimates of our crop would
effect the value of cotton, has received
an answer sooner than expected. On
that day middling upland was quot
ed at Liverpool Sc, and in New
York II 916. For a short time the
price advanced at Liverpool to St, but
to day it is 3-16. Many were still ex-
pIcting a boom, and looked here for Is
to IA cents for the spring and summer
months. Attempts were made twice TO
work up the market, but only % to
% 100 were gained for a few days
Today prices of futures rule about
75-100 lower than on the 7th of February.
After the recent and great decline
some reaction is not impossible, but
lower prices later on can hardly be
avoided. Stocks at our ports, compared
with 1880, not long ago showed a con-
siderable deficiency; in a few days
they win be equalized, and,
as receipts will remain ample,
they may soon exhibit al excess.
Our mills are largely supplied; ex-
ports to Europe heavy, and the visible
supply is considerably in excess of that
of last year. Liverpool will have to car
ry large stocks. The possible lowest
price of the year in that market we must
leave to the determination of others; but
whatever that price may be, for some
time to come We must expect to be gov
erned by Liverpool.