, 1881-02-26
THE PROBABILITIES OF WAR.
Iron the Spectator of 22nd JAM

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doned the attempt to secure Greece the
territories, there will, we believe, be war.
The Bourses still fancy that it will not
break out, and that this or that concession
will be made by Athens or Gonstantinople,
but we see little justification for their con-
fdence. The Sultan may be afraid, and
probably is afraid, of the consequences of
a peace secured by surrender, and they
may we'll seem more immediate. If war
breaks out, he may see an Instruction in
Roumelia, though that is doubtful till g.
much later stage a rising in Syria, to
secure her autOnOmy-a rising said to be
already arranged; a small movement in
Armenia and a great movement in Arabiay
to regain independence, and possibly to
alter the succession to the Caliphate.
Those are serious dangers, even if the
Great Powers at first abstain from ad.
vancing any claims or moving any troops;
and they will be felt in the Yildiz Kiosk
at a moment when the Sultan viii be call.
ed on to drive back Greece, to bride the
Albanians, to crush Macedonia and the
Islands, and to hold down Constantinople'
itself. Nevertheless, they may seem to
the Sultan less than the risks involved in
peace. The two powers which still exist
i'll COnstantinopfe other than The Sultan
the Army and the MusSulmann mob-will
both be for war. The Army, badly paid,
badly FED, and disguised with inaction, will
prefer any change to continued and un.
pleasant monotony while it shares with
the populace a bitter contempt for Greeks,
and the feeling, still not wholly dead, that
if Islam is but true to itself, God will strike
in for it. There exists, too, in both classes
great pride of caste, Igreat indisposition to
surrender ascendancy-especially over
Greeks-and great ignorance of the forces
now controlling the results of war. The
SOldiery and the people think conquest pos
sible their hearts are with the few fanatic
Pashas rem~aining-the men who, like
Osman Pasha, hold battle to be the only
way out of the present situation--and they
are, when pushed, very brave. If the
Sultan coded Jannina to any will less
irresistible than that of the Powers, they
might decide to change him and Sultans,
unless known to be mad, when their
disease protects them, do not survive depo-
sition. We think the Sultan, in the last
resOr', will risk the insurrections which q
victory would quell, Will trust, as against
Europe, to a conflict among the Powers,
and will declare war on Greece.
On the other hand, the Greek Govern.
ment will no. give up Jannina. 1t is still
the secret idea Of the West, including
many diplomatists, that Greece is tiRaid,.
that at the twelfth hour she will shrink
back, and that she threatens war from an
aStute calculation hat the Powers which
favour her require that plea for vigorous
prop osals. That is III part true, but DC.
hind that calculation rests, we believe, q
feeling that if Greece does not fight she is
lost that Austria intends to rule the
Balkans; and that il Greece withdraws,
she will become a mere enclaue of the
Hapsburg dominion, without even a defen-
BILE fron6ier. That is a prospect VIII ich
appaIs Greeks, who are we'll aware that
in Thessaly and Epirus the population are
with them, who have hopes from the Alba
mans, and who have unexpectedly found
more resources in themselves than they
anticipated. They did not expect such a
response to their call to arms, and exag-
gerate, rather than underrate, the military
means at their disposal. They know that
individually they are brave enough, and
probably greatly over estimate, as all in
experienced observers do, the weaknesS.in
Turkish armies produced by POPULATION and
bad arrangements. Those things increase
the slaughter, but do not stop the fighting.
The Greeks too, who know every depart.
menC and parsonage in Constantinople,
are probably cognisant of secret allies, and
look for help in quarters of which Euro
pean diplomatists have scarcely thought.
Finally, if they retreat, they are not only
beaten, but ruined men. Their StateAhas
spent its last resources, they cannot avoid
"a revolution, and they will, for a time at
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