Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1881-05-28
MIR. VENDORS PREDICTIONS.
The1r Success Thus Far-Are They
GueSSeS,

Their Success Thus Ear-Are They
Guesses.
The following from the New York Nation OF
May s, is commended By the Signal Service de-
partment:
The semi-annual change OF weather probably
occurred on Sunday, April a. and the six
months summer has commenced throughout
the northern hemisphere. This event has thus
happened ten days ahead OF its average time,
perhaps IN some relation to the fact that last
kfall the opposite change occurred three weeks
before ITS average time ION october 17.) The
present Is. therefore, suitable occasion for
predictions published 10 his Almanac for 1881.
The majority OF these announcements are
phrased In dictton so loose that entire non
fqlfiilment would be impossible. OF such iC is
idle to treat In this category we include the
following extract from the probabilities" for
January last: 1.-The second quarter viii open
with heavy snow falls and terminate in q cold
snap" Now, since snow or cold snaps occur
every three or four days in our winters and
tne word quarter is designedly SAFE method
OF predicting, it would be almost impossible to
refute such forecast for any ''quarter" what
ever. But definite announcements possess q
test value, for In these guesser would be cor
OF forecasts Mr.. Vennor has not had the luck of
an average guesser, as will appear from hat
follows: ~ expect blockades Of snow in the
United States about the 18th aud sth of Janu-
ary." Both CT these days were fair. The an
nouncement for February contains the most
signal failure which Ill chance could con-
brief u cold spell viii extend from about n
the 18th OF January up to the 18th Of
Fe1ruary, with palmy, spring like weather
prevailing In many parts. and snow rap
cunning ambiguity Of "b ,i and "aoo uas
would have saved him; but the past winter mad
no mercy on prophets. who prated Of thaws and
Sp1tngl1ke weather, located they their warm
spells definitely or Indefinitely. We doubt
whether any body whose avocation called him
out OF doors during the above twenty-five days.
hfscff tam tn
grosser error could by no possibility have been
committed. Recurring to the actual figures Of
the thermometer, as recorded daily at SUNRISE
we find that from January Is till February
day, and on no morning during January, Feb
ruary or March did 1t reach 40 deg. SO much
Iof me long faaW ssr and the bam spring IKE
the 10th by storms, previous to the setting in
OF colder term" The coolest day in February
For March most of the announcements are
vague, and In ordinary times would therefore,
pc accepted as correct by persons disposed to
Dt Lent, But no. even MI vennors cautious
tanned particle Of truth. There was not one
mild day In the month; and on the last two
days snow fell ION the 9th and 10th gales
are probable" Almost any breeze or.weaIher
except drIZZle. might somewhere be thought
q gale, -" probably" but on the 9th and 10th OF
March 1t drizzled. The only day on which a
gale actually occurred was the 27th. Of which
day Mr.. Vennor said nothing. There will be
sharp frost in the beginning of April" Uhere
was nothing else from the 1st to 18th but frost
But the spring will open favorably, and
everything will be pretty we'll advanced by
April 18th. Farmers say differer tly. Floods
may be expected In Chicago about the first
week In April" Rivers are usually high in
April The only question is, which week, and
the freshet In Chicago dates only from april
Goth. "There will be warm weather just fol-
lowing the GOTH" The weather became warm
on the Oath; so this might have been claimed
as an approximate hit had 1t not been spoiled
by the mistaken prediction of snow on the 25th
and 26th. The season changed for good, we
believe. on the oath, rendering snow storms
out OF the question for six months