Knoxville daily chronicle. [volume] (Knoxville, Tenn.) 1870-1882, 1881-08-25
Wheat.
New York Tribune.

ulbe6u CtHtS per DuSHoi Wiohlh tAO
past ten days. The August report
of the agricultural bureau has been
issued, but it fails to justify SO great
an advance in prices. In fact, it
presents prospect but little less
favorable than that of July l, upon
which speculation has been based
for several weeks past. It in
dicates a decrease of 10 per cent
in spring wheat, and II per cent.
in winter wheat, whereas the July
report showed a decrease of II per
cent. in the crop as whole, and the
increase of acreage does not seem to
be taken into account on either
statement. It is curious instance
of the effectiveness of the reports
issued by the bureau that no indica>
ton is given of the comparative
quantity of winter or spring wheat
grown in the different States, al
though the statement is based upon
separate estimate for each. It may
be presumed, however, that the de-
crease will not be more than Is per
cent, less such allowance as should
he made for increase of acreage. This
would not make the yield less than
4O0,0OO,O00 bushels, provided the
estimates of the bureau for the crop
of 1880 be accepted.
There are good reasons, however,
for refusing to accept the estimate of
the bureau for 1880. That estimate
was based upon the reported increase
or decrease from the reported yield
in 1879, which proved smaller than
the census return for that year.
The apparent error in some States,
moreover, was surprisingly large
not less than 40,OG0,000 bushels in
eight States. If the report for 1879
was in error, that of 1880 must have
been correspondingly erroneous, and
this view is sustained by the reports
OF the San Francisco Produce Ex>
Change. The report of the agricul-
tural bureau puts the yield of
1880 at about 4S0,O00,0OO bushels.
The consumption for three years
previous was not less than 273,OOO,-
600 bushels for food and seed,
and both were larger in 1880
than before. For example, an
increase of 100000 in pop
ulation yearly implies an increase of
over 100000 bushels in consump-
ton of wheat. Hence not more than
200,000,000 bushels can have been
left, after supplying domestic con-
sumption for food and seed, from the
crop of 1860, and the official reports
of the bureau of statistics show that
175,O0O,000 bushels of wheat, inclu-
ding its equivalent in -four, have
been exported from last years crop.
This would leave only $4,000, 900
bushels ON hand, but the report of
the San Francisco Produce Exchange
indicates that over 3O,OO0,O0O bush,
els remain on hand in the Pacific
States alone, and the official report
for Ohio showed that over 10000
900 bushels of old wheat were on
hand in that State alone, May 1.
Hence it may be inferred that the
bureau estimate for 1880 was con-
siderably too small.
If we have on hand, of old wheat
from the crop of 1881, nearly 50,0OO,-
900 bushels, it follows that crop of
380,000,000 or 40O,0O0,OOO bushels
this year will supply as large a do
mestic and foreign demand. The
foreign demand does not seem likely
to be as large as it was last year,
though the crops of England, France
and Germany are below average, and
recent dispatches show serious losses
in Hungary, because the Russian
crop appears to be exceptionally
good. It is now supposed that
as much as 60,00O,O00 bushels may be
exported from Russia, against about
30,000,000 bushels last year. With
no change elsewhere, this would di-
minish the demand upon this coun-
try by 3O,0O0,O00 bushels, and if
present prices are maintained the
foreign demand will surely be still
diminished. Hence very large de-
cline in yield-larger than any au-
thentic report now warrants US in
expecting-must be realized in this
country before the large surplus of
last year and the new crop can be
exhausted, with diminished foreign
demand.
These comparisons indicate that
the advance in the price of wheat,
from about 81 one year ago to about
$1.40 per bushel now, has been due
to speculative influences, rather than
to any change in the relation of sup
ply and demand Possibly the same
speculative combinations may put
the market up still more. But the
statistical position does not warrant
the advance which has already oc-
Cured, and the chances are that