The Portland daily press. [volume] (Portland, Me.) 1862-1921, 1880-04-10
The Coming Census.
Speculations and Figures Relative to the
Population of the Country.

The near approach of the time of taking the
10th census gives interest to the estimates
which have been published bp the Detroit Free
Press. The Arithmetic man" of 80 years ago,
basing his estimates largely upon the natural
growth which the United States had, up to
that period, shown by decades, thought that
55,0O0,0O0 was a very modest claim to make for
$780, The census of 1860 measurably bore out
this view; the increase in population since
1850 being 35. Al per cent A similar increase
between 1860 and 1870 would have given the
country population of upward of A., ,0O0,OO0 in
the latter year, when an increase of but 81 per
cent, during the next decade would have given
the country population of a round So 100000
in 1880. But the war, with its attendant re-
suits of loss of life and arrest of immigration,
occasioned a large falling off in the decennial
increase, and the census showed total popu-
lation of but IS, $685. 81. Even with this as
basis, some statistical writers have estimated
that the population of the country at the COM
ing census will be nearly 10000 More
conservative statisticians, among them Gen.
F.ancis Walker, the superintendent of the
census, have estimated the population at be-
tween As, 100000 and 49, 100000. The estimates
of the superintendent are we'll considered; and
certainly if the course Of population in the
United States, from the first to the ninth GEN.
sus inclusive, affords any trustworthy data for
estimates, and if fair approximate can be
made from these in connection with the State
cenSuSeS which have been taken since 1870,
and in connection with the statistics of immi-
grafton, Gen. Walkers figures will be very
nearly borne out by the actual census. 1t is
true that if the decade between 1870 and 1880
had witnessed natural increase in population,
aside from that occasioned by immigration,
equal to that in any decade between 1890 and
1860, the United States would have in June
next population in excess of 500000O0 But
the several censuses since immigra tion statis-
tics began to be collected with care show
uniform diminution in the percentage of natu-
raj increase. Thus, between 1920 and 1890 the
number OF immigrants arriving in the United
States did not, in the aggregate, much exceed
per cent. OF the total population in the for
mer year. The increase per cent. of the popu-
lation in 1880 over that of 1920 was 32.51.
Between 1880 and 1910, 100000 immigrants in
round numbers, arrived in this country. But
although this was an aggregate of 4.6 per cent.
OF the population in 1880, the total increase be-
tween 1880 and 1910 was only per cent larg-
er than it was between 1920 and 1880. That
is to say, the diminution in the natural in
crease was nearly 26 per cent in the decade.
Between 1910 and 1850 100000 immigrants
came to the United States. These arrivals
gave an increase to the population of nearly
9per cent. in the decade. But, although
per cent. larger than during the preceding
decade, the absolute improvement in per-
centage of increase was but 2.31, showinga
diminution in the natural increase, during the
decennial period, of 200 per cent Between
1850 and 1860, 100000 immigrants are re-
ported, accounting for an increase of III per
cent. in population for the decade. But, though
the arrivals OF immigrants were much larger
relatively, as well as absolutely, than they had
ever been before in single decennial period,
the rate of increase between 1850 and 1860 for
the total population was about one-half of / per
cent. less than for the preceding decade, and
the dimlnution in natural increase about per
cent. To put the case somewhat differently:
In the decade between 1920 and 1880, the natu-
raj increase, independent of immigration, was
about 81 per cent; between 1850 and 1860 it
was but 1885,, or diminution in the three
decades of nearly per cent. The decade be-
tween 1860 and 1879 was an abnormal one, and.
little can be deduced from the cause of popu-
lation in that decennial period. Unless the
uniform tendency of diminution in the natu-
raj increase of population has been arrested
since 1870, there is little likelihood that the in
crease, independent OF immigration during the
current decade will exceed 20 per cent. This
would mean an addition Of 7,717 ,674 to the 49,
58S 81 of population which the country had in
1870, and would bring the total up to 46 206 045.
When to this is added the total immigration
oetweeh June oO, loiO, and june ~, looU-ln
round numbers $500, ,O00-a grand total of 49,
1000 is reached. This will not be much ex-
ceeded unless, as We have intimated, the ten
dency to diminution in natural increase has
been arrested. Upon this point the State GEN.
suses which have been taken since 1870, fur
nish pretty conclusive evidence; and without
presenting the facts which support the state
ment, 1t may be said in general terms that the
results of the State censuses also indicate that
49,OOO,OOO will represent very nearly the full
population of the country, as shown by the
census of next june