New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1880-04-17

FIGURES FOR THIRD TERM ADVOCATES
Massachusetts, having chosen an anti-Grant
delegation, the prospects of the third term
movement can now be as accurately estimated
as at any time prior to the Convention in Hi
nois. There is no other NGPthern State, except
Illinois and New-Jersey, in which the sup
pOrters of the ex-President expect to secure
delegates. They expected much but accom-
plished nothing in Massachusetts,, and met
lust the same fate In Connecticut and Indiana.
The present prospect is that they may be
equally unsuccessful in New Jersey and even in
Illinois. The disposition of the Republican
voters in those States, as far as it be ascer-
tanned, is decidedly favorable to other candi-
dates; the conviction of the local politicians
that the party will lose a considerable part of
the regular Republican votes, and especially
of the German votes, If General Grant is nOmi-
mated, operates strongly against him and the
natural and proper desire to succeed in the
doubtful States will make the friends of Grant
slow to insist upon nomination which might
do well enough in Illinois. but would be likely
to lose Ohio, Wisconsin or New-Jersey.
The solid delegations from New-YOrk and
Pennsylvania, if actually secured for the ex-
President, brought him so near majority, with
the aid Of the votes expected from the South,
that his friends INDUCED in over-confdent
boasts. They did not believe that Illinois
would vote against Grant, if its vote would
suffice to secure his nomination. But it has now
been made clear that the ex-President will not
receive the sOlidvotes Of Pennsylvania aud New
York. In the latest estimates, ut least twenty
votes from Pennsylvania are given to Senator
Blaine, and it would not be surprising If the ex-
President out of the 12S votes of the two States,
should receive considerably less than 100.
Giving him 10S, however, we find that he still
needs 271 votes to secure his nomination by q
bare majority, and the aggregate of all the
delegations from States south of the Potomac
and Ohio and from Missouri is only 254. But
of these it is already known that six votes from
North Carolina have been secured for Secretary
Sherman, and that part of the delegation from
Texas, eight votes, will prefer MIR. Blaine.
This leaves only 240 votes from the South, and
it is not now considered probable that all of
these will be cast for the ex-President. In
fact, the Convention at Key West, on Thurs
day, indicated o decided preponderance in
Southern Florida for Mr.. Sherman, and meet
ings in Georgia have given good reason to be-
lieve that portion, if not the whole, of the
delegation from that State will be opposed to
General Grant.
The forty eight votes from New-Jersey and
Illinois, therefore, may not imprObably turn the
scale, and insure the success or the defeat of
the Republican party next Fall. But it is quite
likely that verdict adverse to the ex-President
may be rendered in Georgia and some other
Southern States, and in New. Jersey, before the
Republicans of Illinois have opportunity to
declare their preference. In that case, the
entire vote of Illinois would not suffice to secure
the nomination Of General Grant, and the
chance Of his obtaining that vote would be
greatly dimipished. The effect of an adverse
vote in either Of the Southern States or In New
Jersey will also be very great upon the hesitat-
ing members Of delegations from New York
and Pennsylvania. So long as 1t seems possible
that the President may be nominated, If the
votes Of these States are cast according to the
instructions, some delegates may feel disposed
10 abide by the resolution of instructions who
would otherwise give expression to different
Judgment In short, if the advocates of the
third term do not carry every Southern State
from this time forward, and the full delegation