New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1880-04-26
PIVOTAL STATES.

II is now plain that the support OF the Solo
delegation from Illinois will be essential to the
success of General rants candidacy at Chicago.
TT he should receive the votes of the entire
Soutb and of the unbroken delegations from
New-York and Pennsylvania, he could dispense
with Illinois and still have majority OF twenty.
Rnt he ia going to lose twenty votes In Penn
sylyana and it is not improbable that eight or
ten of the New York delegates will break away
from the Utica instructions. Meanwhile the
South ia not developing that solidity in his be-
half which hrs friends have been confidently
expecting. A portion of the Texas delegation
and nearly the entire Georgia delegation are
for Blaine. If the leading Republican paper
in Maryland, The Baltimore American, is not
mistaken, that State will choose Blaine dele
cation. Delaware is in doubt, and 30 is Ten
nessee. A solid Grant vote cannot be expected
from either of the CarOlinas. Thus the Grant
slate Is breaking up all around. The transfer
to him of the Edmunds strength In New-Eng-
land, contingency which, though somewhat
remote, must be taken into account, would not
compensate for the losses he will suffer IN the
South. He must therefore secure his own State
or he is out of the contest. With the whole
vote of Illinois his nomination will be possible,
though by no means certain; without it he is
beaten before the Chicago Convention assem-
bles. To say nothing of the moral effect OF the
loss of his own State a majority cannot DO fig
ured up for him without its fOrty-twO votes
PENNSYLVANIA, where the Democrats hold
their convention next Wednesday, is not as es-
sential to Mr.. Tilden's success as Illinois is to
General Grants, but itsllOss would he serious
blow to his chances. After New-YOrk, it is the
first important Northern State to break ground.
Its action will be taken as an index to MIR. Til
denis strength outside his own State, and will
| have considerable influence in determining the
attitude of other States which have as yet shown
mn decided leaning, either for or against him.
| Unfortunately for his candidacy, his interests
ara somewhat mixed up in Pennsylvania with
| the factional duarrels of the rival Democratic
leaders, Senator Wallace and Speaker Randall,
the former opposing and the latter supporting
him. which will prevent fair test of his pOpu-
larity with the masses of the party. This fact
! will not, however, be much considered In other
States. If he loses Pennsylvania few people
will stop to examine the claim that the loss was
occasioned by an old quarrel between local poll
ticians, and not by his own want OF popular
strength. The conclusion will be hastily
reached that he Is on the downhill road, and
| once reached, his friends will have hard work
| to argue 1t out of the public mind in time Ia
prevent 1t from doing him mischief In the
States yet to bold conventions. The strenuous
efforts now being made to secure him the Penn
sylyania delegation are thus explained by the
| fact that that State may be the point upon
which his success depends. One thing is in hii
fayor-the adherents of the Wallace faction ap-
pear to have no candidate to run against him
| II they had man Of their own whom they were
heartily supporting, their opposition would be
muor, gore formidable but as 1t L. they appear