The Indiana State sentinel. [volume] (Indianapolis) 1868-1895, 1880-05-12
Crop Foreshadowings.


At present. the condition of the European
crops indicates the probability of generally
good barvests And, so far, 1t may be taken
for granted that the conditions in the United
States suggest the probability of yield OF
wheat cor sl to that of 1879. OF course these
indications are worth little as basis of es-
innate for the next harvest; for there are yet
all the chances OF the present favorable pros
poets being changed by adverse conditions of
weather OF either or both sides of the Allan
tic. As however, 1t is always necessary to
govern present arrangements by future
probabilities or even possibilities, ii may be
proper to consider what might be the state OF
things should the present favorable indica-
tons result in a good harvest both at home
and abroad.
Two facts are to be kept in mind-frst,
that for each of the last three years, the
European harvests have been failure, caus-
ing an increased demand for wheat in the
United States; and next that, to meet this
enlarged foreign demand, our own crops
have been immensely augmented. The ques-
ton arises, what is likely to result, when the
European crops recover their average vol
ume, while ours remain at its enlarged
dimensions? This may be approximately
answered by a few comparisons. For the
five years preceding the three deficient Eu-
ropean harvests the exports OF wheat and
-four from the United States averaged 50 .000-
crop of wheat, for the same period, was 2S4,
100000 bushels; leaving 232, 000, 900 for home
consumption, or about five bushels per head
OF population. For the year 1878 the crop
was 400 000, 900 bushels, and the export for
the year ending June 80, 1879. was 124 ,000, 900
bushels, leaving at home 296 coo, 900 bushels
or, as estimated by the Chief OF the
Bureau of Statistics, about six bushels per
head; the difference between this six bushels
per capita and the five bushels shown in the
five years period being due to the fact that
at the later period, the quantity left in the
hands OF dealers was much greater than IN the
former period. In 1879, the crop reached
$4,000 900 bushels. What the export out of
that crop, within the current fiscal year,
may be, remains to be seen; according to
official returns, the shipments, for the nine
months ending March 81, amounted TO u.s.
100000 bushels Including fiour.)
Judging from the average of the five years
above quoted, Europe, in the event of its
having an average harvest. would need from
our next crop about 50, OOO, 900 bushels, for
absolute consumption, to say nothing of
what might be needed to replenish reduced
stocks. What we shall require for home
consumption may be inferred from estimat-
ing our population at As 600 900, and the
consumption at So bushels per capita, or 10
per cent. more than the five years average
above quoted, which would give 264, 600, 900
bushels as the quantity required for home
use. Thus the requirements for foreign and
domestic consumption would aggregate 316,-
O0O. 600 bushels. Assuming that the growing
crop equals that Of last year, We shall have a
supply from next harvest of 449 000. 0C0
bushels. Demand and supply, for the COM
ing crop year, would therefore compare
thus:
Bushels.
wanted for export, same as years
1878 52CgO,OOU
Wanted for home consumption 49,
100000 at 81 bushels per head....... 264, .0OC
Total 900 O0t
Surplus Of supply 600 OOC
1t VIII be thus seen that, in the event oil
Europe having average crops and of the
United States crop equaling that of 1879, we
should have in this country surplus OF over
130 600, 900 bushels of wheat 1t is to be
taken into account, however, that, at the
end Of the present crop year, the stocks oil
grain, the world over, are likely to be re.
duced 70 an exceptionally low condition
and g certain amount OF our surplus ovel
consumption requirements would be needed
to make up those deficiencies. But, making
due allowance for this special demand
there would still remain q surplus so large
as to produce q very serious effect upon
prices.
If these comparisons suggested q certain
result, and not merely what may occur II
the event of the season proving favorable
one, they would present Q serious OUTLOOK