National Republican. (Washington City (D.C.)) 1872-1888, 1880-08-31
"0LD PROBABILITIES"
A Brief Sketch Of the Origin Of Cur
Weather Reports.
Cincinnati the First Point Where the De-
ductiOns were Made and Pub
licly Announced.
Science as nn Ala to Commerce.

The popular impression that "Od Proba-
bilitics" died at Buffalo few days.since ia an
erroneous one. General Myer invented an
admirable code of signals for the use Of the
army, which was adopted by the government,
and, very properly, that gentleman was se-
lected as the head Of tho corps which was to
be trained TO the uso Of that code Of signals.
But that code had nothing whatever to do
with tho telcgraphic reports Of the weather
from various points, their consolidation, as 1t
were comparison, and the drawing Of de.
ductions therofrom as to the probable state Of
the weather Mt different localities II was
simply under tho act of February o, 1870, that
General Myor was designated by the secretary
of war TO carry that act into execution, he
having had no experience In mcteOrolOgy
prior to that date. The act reads as follows
That the secretary Of war be aud he is hereby
authorized and required 10 provide for taking
meteorological observations at the military stations
in the Interior of the continent and at other points
In the states and territories Of the United States,
and for giving notice on the northern lakes and on
the sea coast by magnetic telegraph and marine
Signals OF the approach aud force of storms.
This measure was first introduced In con-
gress by Hon. Halbert E. Paine, lato commits
sioner of patents then representative from
the state Of Wisconsin. Its practicabiity had
already been demonstrated, aud so ready were
congress aud the people that tho bill had
passed both houses without dissent, and been
signed by the president, within two months
Gncuding holiday recess) from tho time Of its
Introduction. A little more than II month
later March To- 1870, General Myer was
designated az tho officer to supcriutoud the
execution OF the act.
1t was not till the following November that
tho daily reports Of barometer, temperature,
direction aud velocity of the wind, whether
rainy, cloudy or fair, etc. at the different OBJ
serving stations began to be printed, and then
the reports only, without any deductions as
to what the weather would be. 1t was not
until January l, 1871, that "Old Probabiitos'
made his appearance Mt the weather bureau of
the signal Office in the person of Professor
Cleveland Able from the Cincinnati Observa-
tory, Il gentleman who had mado meteorology
an esl o1ial study for Il long time.
or course meteorOlogy had long engaged the
attention of scientific minds but tho intro.
duction Of the electric telegraph first made
the study of atmospheric changes with view
to their immediate practical application q
possibility. This possibility was speedily dis
cerned by many scientists, notably Professors
Espy aud Henry in the United States; John
Bell in England, who in 1S45, at q meeting Of
the British association for the advancement of
science, suggested that it was possible to re.
ceivc reports irom all parts of Great Britain
and many points on the continent, and that
this information ought to be utilized. Lo
Verrier in Franco also called attention to tho
subject, and in 1854 Napoleon ordered reports
from stations in France and in 1857 they were
extended to foreign countries
To Professor Joseph Henry Is due the credit
Of having mrst uvuuusttaurG umv pi avuiS aUi,ivy
of utilizing the telegraph Tor the purpose of
prognosticating the weather at any given
point. He had from the very beginning ad-
vocated the feasibility of carly storm warn
ings through the telegraph. lu 1857 the Nh
tional Telegraph line gave him facilities for
observations from New Orleans to New York
and as far west rs Cincinnati, which was the
extent of the lines under their control, aud
these reports were printed In the Washington
daily papers.
Notwithstanding tho observations were
taken by inexperienced and too often careless
aud indifferent telegraph operators, they were
sufficiently accurate to enable Professor Henry
to demonstrate the scientific fact, which he,
with Characteristic cheorlalness, gave for the
general good The war aud the subsequent
disastrous fire at the Smithsonian institution
caused suspension of Professor Henry's
labors IN this direction.
No further steps were taken toward util-
iziug this information now so valuable until
1867, when Professor Cleveland Abbe returned
from Russia, where he had spent two years u
close observer of the labors of tho Imperial
central astronomical observatory, aud as.
sumed charge of the Cincinnati observatory.
| In his inaugural report ho pointed out the
desrabity of storm warnings, and the same
| year he brought the subject before the Gin
| cinnati chamber of commerce, and that body
| accepting an invitation to cooperate, au'
| thorized system Of reports and predictions
| at its expense.
Tho weather bulletins of the Cincinnati
observatory" were begun September l. 1863,
| Beginning with ten stations, the number was
| increased to thirty, aud the reports were
published daily at noon, with tho probabilities
| for Cincinnati, aud in that city where so much
of tho business, the packing OF pork, imporia
| ton Of oysters from the east, etc, depended
upon the weather, We're eagerly sought alter
| 70 the present day the Cincinnati chamber
of commerce, with less modesty than Professor
| Able, claim tho weather bureau as
| their bantling After three months, the
| Western Union Telegraph company not being
ready to ronew their contract, Professor Abbe
carried on tho system himself, the Western
Union furnishing the dispatches pending cou'
| gressional action free of charge. The adoption
OF the system by the government upon lib
oral and comprehensive plan OF course letI
| the moro limited labors of Professor AbbG at
Cincinnati without field OF operation. De
voted to the subject, he resigned his position
at the observatory and came to Washington
and became connected with the signal Office
| or faluef WeAIucl DulcAVi u9 sAaNSdi uSHu"AS II
1871,
From that date to March following by q
series of daily deductions and subsequent veri
| hcalious, ho demonstrated 10 General Myor
tho accuracy of probabilities, and that officer
| in the following March commenced their pub
licatiou. II is proper to say here that the
tables, charts, aud in fact tho whole system
was copied from that of the Cincinnati OBJ
seryatory and are the ones IN use to-day, al
though much enlarged aud extended.
In October 1871, the practice Of dis
playing cautionary signals on the seac coast
aud lakes was adopted, aud later the condl'
tion OF the water in important navigab!e rivers
received attention. Tho success which the
bureau has attained is well known to every
one who reads the papers. Tho daily publica'
ton of tho indications is read by all classes oi
people, and what was ouco supposed TO be
only Of service to tho commercial world, not
only affects the agriculturallst, but Is even
consulted in regard to the proprlety Of taking
an umbrella when going out on business OF
pleasure Even the washerwOnan cOnsults II
before commencing her daily labors
Who shall be General Myers successor is Il
question which tho president will decide.
Science aud tho true interests Of the service
seem to require that IL DO ono thoroughly
familiar with the subject, and justice, that II
be the man who has accomplished 50 much,
That the signal service should be under the
direction of Il military man seems no less
proper. The two officers have worked har
moniously more through the high executive
ability Of General Myer aud the devotion OIL
| Al OH ttt hot Ia.