, 1880-02-18

terprise IN which defeat might be followed.
first, by the loss of his German provinces /;
secondly, by the retrOceSsion of Finland /;
thirdly, by some radical change in Poland
and fourthly, by the final dissolution of the
autocracy, which could never survive a
cataclysmal defeat. The result of the Cri-
mean war shook the Russian system to its
base, and it might have fallen, had not
Alexander been able to remodel society by
the deoree of Emancipation. That he would
he deNelted in a war of invasion is, at all
events, most probable while victory would
give him nothing but the power of expel-
ling Austria from the Balkans, an
event in which England might take al
active and q hostile interest. Of course,
with a great ally the Emperor might, in his
own mind, reckon on victory, though even
then the calculation would be a most haZar-
dous one, for Germany and Austria together
control O million of good soldiers, and the
western frontier of Germany, as Napoleon
said, bristles with great fortresses. while
Metz has held a hundred thousand men
but the only possible great ally, France, is
neither ready nor willing for the enterprise.
The French peasantry have not recovered
the impression of the last war, the finances
are burdened by the momentary depression
of prosperity consequent on the failure OF
both the French haryests, corn and Wlne,
and M. de Freycinet is intent on anything
rather than grand foreign intrigues. lie IS
an engineer, and is pressing forward I'M
lnenSe schemes of internal development,
which war would arrest. Of course, if the
war began, and Russia were at first victo-
rious, France might chime in but the EN-
peror Alexander is not the man to stake
his throne and his empire on a chance like
that, while there is no popular feeling III
his Empire and no definite military feeling
sufficient to force his hand. Germany is
not a secular enemy of Russia, like Turkey;
nor is it filed with MahOmmedan Pashas,
intent on keeping Christians down. The
Wet would be a war Of the Court, and why
should the Court of St. Petersburg play for
such q tremendous stake
70 punish Austria! No doubt, that is a
motive. and if Austria stood alone, the
Russian Government might be willing to
give the HapsburgS q severe lesson, ana
teach them not to pretend to the leadership
of the South Slavons. That is an object,
and might, under conceivable
ces, be regarded as worth q great FISK.
But then the very keynote OF the situation
is that Austria does not stand alone, that
war is necessarily war also on Germany.
1t does not matter at all whether the two
OVERS dIo UOuiVU tCSttICI ny dHS NAAItOA
agreement, such as many people imagine
to have been signed at Vienna, during
Prince Bismarck'S visit. Germany IS per
maAently threatened by Russia Oh the east
and France upon the west, and she could
not allow her only safe ally, the only great
Power whose interests are her own, q
Power Which is her own outpost southwark
to be crushed without a defence, which
would be a ~resolute and enormous war. To
attack Austria seriously from the Russian
side, with Russian troops III the field, would
be to attack Germany; and we find it i'm
possible to believe that till France is avow-
edly and thoroughly ready, and willing to
run terrible risks for the recovery Of her
provinces or the reassertion of her prepon-
derance, the Romanoffs will attempt any
such feat. The Gar may be German"
and the Czarewitch ''anti- German, but both
must study circumstances, and both alike
are surrounded by men who understand
Europe, and know how to prevent designs
of too desperate or hazardous a character.
On.the other hand, the chance that
either Austria or Germany will voluntarily
engage in war with Russia is but a remote
one. Austria has not the money, has not a
good position for an invasion, and has a
permanent difficulty to face in the Russian
sympathies of a portion Of her own Slav
subjects. She has too little to gain for
such a risk: and though.Prince Bismarck
has much to. hope from victory, he is under
one powerful restraining influence. He
might, nle;defeated Russia, gain new pro-
vinces and new security for Germany, but