New-York tribune., 1880-01-09
nlR Ern0Rs EROM ErROPE.


ing, We do not apprehend that there Is I'M
mediate danger of the outbreak OF war
After Sadowa there was, rs the French would
say. duel in the air, and Sedan was Il
foregone conclusion. a similar rupture be-
tween Russia and Germany appears to US
remote contingency.
RUSSIA cannot afford to 90 to war. One cam
paign after another cannot be fought with de-
prcciated currency and disord' finances. ii
the progress of revolutionary ideas could
not be impeded by war in the East which
| called forth the infectious enthusiasm OF a
nation of Savs, the Government cannot ex-
pect to divert the attention of the Nihlsts by
n camDagn in the West, which would be un-
popular with the masses Even if an honor
able peace could be assured in advance, the
sOuIces of national discomfort would remain,
! for the Nlhilsts are utterly Indifferent TO
| territorial cOnquests and prestige IN Eu-
| rope The outbreak of war would tend
! to aggravate domestic disorders and would be
| fIaught with dcadliest peril. The Fatherland
| is not pcoplcd with Turks. The German
armies would not wait to be attacked, but
would muster in the enemy's cOuntryj and an
INVASION OF Poland might cuminate in the
|
cannot be so roolhardy as to advocate policy
equally hazardous at home and abroad. Even
in dipl1matic sense IA foreign war Is un-
necessary, for Russia's great rival for do
mnion in Asia has been cntrapped III Afghan
! istan and Notwithstanding the alliance be-
tween Germany and Austria the influence OF
the Northern Slavs is extending rapidly not
only in Eastern Roumclia and Armenia, but
in Constantinople itself.
On the other hand Germany has little, if
anything, 10 gain by forcing campaign with
Russia. Her interests are centred IN the West
and South rather than in the East, and the
conquest of the Baltic provinces Is not teasI-
bic. Already Berlin * the diplomatic centre
of the Continent, and the Fatherland eXcrts Il
commanding Influence IN every European cap
ital. II France has been warned a-aiust play
ing with Ru sian fire. il is not the first time
that Bismarck ha, brought the pressure Of di-
plomacy to bear upon the Republic. When
ever there is q change Of Ministry in Paris
the German Minister has some suggestions to
offer respecting the foreign policy OF the new
government VI. de Frcycinct seems to have
been helly favored in this respect on
the opening of the year, and Bismarck has
gwen the Premier certificate oi good char
acter and intentions. Tin" Picmlcr'3 d-claim
en-, of an alliance between the most liberal
and thc most dc~potic governments in Europe
were uplluous. RUSSIA does not stand IN
immediate need of Western ally. for her
cunpaim with Germany is reserved ion am
other generation.
Seven years ago hi, very day The crowned
intrigucr who had disturbed the peace
of Europe and dragged Franco into q
disastrous war; died in shame and exile.
a few weeks altclward the victorious Kaiser
iourncycd i'm triumph 10 -. Petersburg to
thauk tie Car for thc diplomatic cooperation
which had rendered Sedan as well as Sad0wa
possible. Tor fortnight there were military
pae,ant5 and imposing fttcs; every band in
tLc CapItal played the Watch on the Rhine" /;
the FmIcIol, kissed each other m public; the
Chaucclor4 laughed at each others jokes like
pair Of gamblers who had won high stakes
by double throw Of the "iiou dice of
"war." and the alliance between tine two
Courts seemed 10 bc sealed for half a century.
Yet within two years tie Cl'ncollo;s were
cstranecd IN consequence Ol the zeal mani
tested by Gort,chlhoil III preventing renewal
of The attack upon France; and since
the close OF the wal IN the East wherein Rus
sin had expected to find full compensation for
her neutrality during the campaigns III Austria
and France. the breach between the allies has
widcucd until national rcsentmcnts have
been excited. To-day there are signs of
hostility at St. Petersburg of buster and
intimidation at Berlin, and of menace at
Paris. There are vague rumors of military
preparations ON the Russian frontiers, and in
Germany the military critics are grlycly dis
cu-,iug plans of invasion, based on the de
fences Of each Empire. At the same time
France is warned against an alliance with the
Court which sanctioned bcr downfall after
Sedan, and protected her against invasion in
1915. Such are the changes wrought 10y
seven years Of diplomacy. They illustrate
the yagares Of personal government, and the
aggressive tendencies of the European system
of national armamcnts.
f..t an gf