Green-Mountain freeman. [volume] (Montpelier, Vt.) 1844-1884, 1880-07-07
At the Beginning.

The presidential campaign just begin
ming will be one of tho closest the country |
has ever seen, and it is idle for either |
party to attempt TO hide this fact by hur-
raining and claiming all it wants to begin
with. That is not the way victories are
won aud whichever party exhibits the
greatest tendency to do this may be set
down as the one whose calculations will
bear taking with u very large grain of
salt
Nothing appears clearer to-day than that
the nominations of both parties are to
command substantially theirparty strength
and nothing more. Here and there
Pearson of Pennsylvania, Il Jerome of
New York or Lathrop Of MASSACHUSETTS,
drops out of one party but the lines hold
as rule all over the country.
This being the case the party which has
the best reasons for existence will best
hold itself together and to it the incidents
of the campaign will bring their balance
of strength. The crop of party blunders
will develop on both sides for four months
and the party which is the more incon-
sistent and on the whole least worthy of
support will find them developing most on
its side, Time will tell whether republic
cans are most justified in their faith in the
merits and growing strength of their sep.
Al
we are willing to leave it believing that
the late autumn will find rcpublicanism on
the gain and willing that our opponents
shall hold different faith
From the closeness of the contest we
think the party that gains during the cam
vass may find that gain the balance OF
strength the which will give it the victory.
To the end republicans should work that
their cause be not lost by Indifference or
by leaving undone any of those things
which done with zeal and vigilance secure
an otherwise uncertain victory.
To work Understandings the field rs it
is should be understood; In viewing the
situation there is no use of putting aside
ugly facts on the one hand or Of taking
counsel Of i'll founded fears on the other.
With these things in mind let us see.
There are 1863 electoral votes and the
winning party will need lS5 The solid
south may be counted for the democrats
at once, which will give them 1873 votes
With these we think should be put New
Jersey, making 9 more, or 147 in all. Or
the republican side we count as sure 16(
votes; leaving New York with IS, Indian;
with Is and Connecticut with a
doubtful. In making this estimate we d
not forget that Maine is close, and tina
the democrats make claims to Pcnnsylva
Dia, and that at times they have carrie
Oregon but take it altogether they have a
little reasonable hope for one of thos
states as we have for Florida.
The republicans then need of the thrt
doubtful states either Connecticut IN
Indiana together or New York alon
They have much the best chance in Co
necticut and if they can get Indiana mi
win without New York. Now Engli:
was put on the democratic ticket to he
in Indiana and he will not help. He
not popular there and if Indiana is CARR
by them it will be because it is hopeles
ly democratic state. The republicans
Indiana do not think they will be beate
If they are right-we do not say they a
Garfield is safe. Atany rate the decisi
of the supreme court of that state keeps
in the list of October states and we sh
know in time whether we are put to rt
on New York.
Suppose that the democrats carry In
ana in October then the contest cent?
in the Empire state which gave Tild
10000 in round numbers more til
Hayes. What are the chances there?
put aside the election of 1873 which
republicans carried by over $4,000 q
came to last falls campaign. Cornell
$4,000 over Robinson and Kelly had 7
900 votes, showing combined democr
ic majority of $4,000. But we estim
that 10000 republican scratches went
Robinson. The vote on the rest of
state ticket bears out this supposit
for though both wings of the democl
supported the rest Of the state ticket
republican candidates who were in ia
withthe "scratchers" were elected by Fl.
1000 to 5000 over their democratic OPP
Eents.
All shades of republican opinion and
dependent opinion are now united in ia
of Garfield and Arthur in New York
rs we look at it they stand to-day
even chance of carrying the state.
contest will be severe and close especii
if it shall turn out that Indiana give
round democratic majority in October,
the republican who does not believe
party has fair chance of carrying
empire state and with it the presiden
election, takes counsel of shadowy
and of brag and buster on the other s.
and not of Il deliberate judgment made
from study of the facts.