The Portland daily press. [volume] (Portland, Me.) 1862-1921, 1880-03-04
Vennor's Method of Guessing.
[From his Winter Almanac

From his Winter Almanac.
First and foremost, then I examine myself
| respecting impressions formed intuitively from
recent outdoor life. These l always find lurk-
ing i'll some corner of my mind and ready to
| put themselves into shape when called for On
some occasions, one of these in particular will
loom up definitely above all the others and
urge strongly its claims; while at other times
number present themselves,a all eqnally plaus-
ible and likely. In rare instances I search and
find no definite impressions formed, but all
alike faint and Pickering, and l may state
here that on such occasions feel considerable
hesitation in hazarding a forecast. My first
step, then is to write down on a sheet of paper
off-hand, the main impressions which natural
ly occur to me. This is what soma have called
guessing. 1t may be so; but if it is so, it is
guessing" based upon outdoor, NOT closet
experience, and consists of natural inferences
from natures laws. The forecast, however,
thus written down is not yet to be settled upon
as the proper one; other steps are necessary.
The next is to draw up from field notes an alb
stract of the actual weather experienced dur
ing the whole summer, noting carefully every
leading feature Has it been year of drought
rains, heat, or cold? Has it been marked by
severe storms, or calm, equable weather? All
are carefully noted, and averages are taken of
temperature, rain-falls, storms, ETC. News
paper clippings, covering the length and
breadth of the Dominion, are next studied,
and the various weather items sorted and sys-
tematically arranged for further reference
Now, from all these data, and guided by past
experience in such matters, write off anoth-
er--No. 2-forecast, in the preparation of
which do not allow myself to be in the slight
est degree influenced by the first or No. fore
cast. Next, setting these two forecasts aside
and oblterating them entirely from my mind
if possible, a third is prepared in the manner
following: Diagrams of the weather of some
thirty years are spread out and posted up on
my study wall. These, at a glance show the
general characters of the past springs sum
mers, and autumns and further the winter
which have followed these. The diagrams
ay of our last spring and summer,
is in my hand, and the problem to be
solved is embodied in the question now asked
me, viz: What are our approaching autumn,
Writer and spring to be like? Most assuredly
these will resemble in some respects some of
those which have preceded them. Sitting
down in my easy chair in the middle of my
room gaze long and earnestly at that terrible
array OF weather-charts on my wall. Friends
come in and go away again and, as have re-
Gently heard, repeat to other friends that
"Vennor occupies most of his time sitting, pipe
in mouth, gazing at the wall" And so he
does, and SO he probably WILL until the wealth.
er problem is solved and he can, with the
mathematician of old, cry, 'sEureka! Eureka"
But to return to my chair. After hours, per-
haps days, of patient comparison, find what
appears to suit the case in hand, namely, one
or more years that sufficiently resemble, in
their leading characteristics the one we are
inquiring about. From the diagram of these /
draw out the last or No. 3 forecast, and the
hardest portion of my task is done.
now have three forecasts before me, per-
chance all similar, probably all diverse. No
is the leading impression, intuitively formed.
No consists of natural deductions from the
actual weather experienced during the past
season. No 3 is based upon analogy and close
comparison of former weather-charts. My man
ner of proceeding now is different in different
cases. Are all forecasts fairly similar? Then
guide myself mainly by my first or leading
impression. Are two, only, alike? Then l re-
arrange and form these into one. Are all diff
ferent? Then 1 depend chiefly upon that nat
urally deduced from the action of the past six
months. In this way are my general outlines
formed. Further details, which have sever
al times attempted during the winter, have
been chiefly deduced from the comparison of
the weather charts of past years, bnt this has
been found to be an insecure basis to bulld up
on and have, as 1 deserved to, failed repeat
edly in these attempts. But l here maintain
that my general outlines for the years 1875, '76,
III and rs, have been in the main correct, al
though have ON several occasions spoiled the
effect of these by subsequent attempts to give
them in greater detail.