St. Landry democrat. (Opelousas, La.) 1878-1894, 1880-02-07
A Wild yVinter-AEs UEaFseaisFsy
Summer.
New Orleans Times

New Orleans Times.
The remarkably mild weather which
has thus far prevailed this winter leads
many persons to believe that the coming
spring and summer will be unusually
unhealthy. 1t is not uncommon to hear
people remark that there is sure to be a
great deal of sickness as soon as warm
weather sets in. Their forebodines of
sickness and death are not altogether
baseless. 1t is we'll authenticated fact
that the death rate is higher after q
mild winter than after one of the usual
severity. The belief, however, that Il
greater number Of people die in a year
in which he winter is very mild than
in a year in which the winter is very
severe, is erroneous. The average death
rate of each year is about the same.
Professor Proctor, writing upon this
very interesting subject, says:
eve often hear in England the pro-
verb, "A green Christmas makes a full
churchyard,' and there are statistical
reasons for the idea thus expire ssed; but
like most theories suggested by the first
obvious Interpretation Of statistical re-
suits, 1t Is incorrect, Or perhaps | should
rather say that it is assuredlv not es-
tablished by the evidence. The great
mistake constantly made by ineXperi
enced persons in considering statistical
results, and too often made by persons
who ought to know better, is that of
emitting to inquire whether the numbers
dealt with relate to cases in which there
has been no selection; whether by actual
choice, or, which is the usual case, by
the results of circumstances. For in
stance, when the death rate was found
to be unusually low in England last
summer the just Inference was, not that
the weather or other conditions haG
oeen unusually favorable to life, but
that either they had been SO OF else
scne circumstances had caused the
weaker sort OF persons (the bad lives ;
of insurance jargOn) to be eliminated III
greater OF less degree. Now, a very
brief consideration of the matter would
have shown the probability that the
latter might be the true Interpretation,
and very cursOry examination OF the
statistical results would have proved
Enthusiastically that it was so. A long
and bitter winter mi ht be expected to
eliminate the weaker lives, and, as Il
matter Of fact, it does so eliminate them.
The death rate in England is invariably
higher during the continuance OF a very
cold winter, and was remarkably above
the average during the months of De
cember, 1878, January, February, March
and April, 1879. Assuming that the
preceding months had not been unus-
ually favorable to life-there are reasons
for believing that they were of average
characterize would follow that the
excess of deaths in the months named
represented Gin the main delicate per
sons who had been killed off by the
excessive cold, but for which they would
have fingered on-represented, i'll fact,
weak lives who, but for the bitter
winter, would have formed part OF the
population in May, 1875 Since, then,
the population at that time had been
deprived of all these weaker lives, it
followed inevitably that in June and
temperature, moisture, ETC., is con-
cerned, the death rate WoulI be lower
during those months. By parity of
reasoning, it follows equally that if the
winter months arc mild and the death
rate is lower during those months, it
will be higher during the months
following that mild winter. The
actual state of the case, and the nature
of tll,, mistake [ wish To correct, may be
thus presented: Fewer persons than
usual die after a m,ad wiuter, not
because such a winter is favorable to
| life but because it kills off many of the
weaker lives during its. progress, and
more than usual die after mild winter,
not because such Il winter is unfavorable
to life, but because it Leaves alive many
| who would have died during its pro-
sress, had it been of the usual sort.''
No doubt Professor Proctor has given
this subject careful consideration, and
that the conclusion at s>iiich he arrives
is correct. People are apt to draw de-
auctions from an incomplete observation
of facts and their deductions are
therefore frequently incorrect. The
explanation which Professor Proctor
gives of why the death rate is higher
after mild winter than after winter
of severe weather seems to be reasona-
BILE and satisfactory. There is no good
ground therefore for believing that any
unusual amount Of sickness will prevail
when the season Of warm weather
arrives.