Morning journal and courier., 1880-03-02
vennor's Method of Guessing.

[As he describes it in his Winter-Almansc.l
 First and foremost, then, I examine myself
 respecting impressions formed intuitively
 from recent outdoor life. These I always
 find lurking in some corner of my mind and
 ready to put themselves into shape when call
 ed for. On some occasions, one of these in
 particular will loom up definitely above all
 others and urge strongly it's claims; while at
 other times number present themselves, all
 equally plausible and likely. In rare instances
 search and find no definite Impressions formed, but all alike faint and fickering. and
 may state here that on such occasions feel considerable hesitation in hazardiDg @ fore cast. My first step, then, is to write down on a sheet of paper, off-haud, the main impress sion or impressions which naturally occur to me. This is what some have called 'guess- ing" It may De so but if so, it is ''guess- ing" based upon out-door-not closet-expe- rience, and consists of natural inferences from natures laws. The forecast, however, thus written down, is not yet to be settled upon as the proper one; other steps are necessary. The next is to draw up from field notes an ab- stract of the actual weather experienced dur ing the whole summer, noting carefully every leading feature. Has it been year of drought, rains, heat or cold? Has it been marked by severe storms, or by calm, equa- ble weather? All are carefully noted, and
 averages are taken of temperature, rainfall, storms, etc. Newspaper clippings, covering the length and breadth of the Dominion, are next studied, and the various weather items sorted and systematically arranged for further reference. Now, from all these data, and guided by past experience in such matters, I write of another-No. 2-forecast, in the preparation of which do not allow myself to be in the slightest degree influenced by the first or No. l forecast. Next, setting these two forecasts aside and obliterating them en- tirely, if possible, from my mind, third is prepared in the manner following: Diagrams of the weather of some 30 years are spread out and posted up on my study wall These, at glance show the general characters of the past springs, summers and autumns, and further, the winters which have followed these The diagram, say of our last spring and summer, is in my hand, and the problem to be solved is embodied in the question now asked me, viz: What are our approaching autumn, winter
 and spring to be like Most assuredly these
 will resemble in some respects some of those which have preceded them. Sitting down in my easy chair in the middle of my room, I gaze long and earnestly at that terrible array of weather charts on my wall. Friends come in and go away again and, as have recently heard, repeat to other friends that ''Vennor oc cupies most of his time sitting, pipe in mouth, gazing at the wall" And so he does, and so he probably will, until the weather problem" is solved, and he can, with the mathematician of old, cry ''Eurekai Eureka!" But to re- turn tO my CQA1rs A1l6r nOuIS, uhye1 of patient comparison, l find what appears to suit the case in hand, namely, one or more years that sufficiently resemble, in their leading characteristics, the one we are inqu1r1ng about. From the diagram of these I draw out the last or No. 8 forecast, and the hardest DO rtion of my task is done.
 now have the three forecasts before me, perehance ali similar, probably all diverse. No. is the leading impression, intuitively formed. No. 2 consists of natural deductions from the actual weather experienced during the past season. No. is based upon analogy and close comparison of former weather charts. My manner of proceeding ncw is diff ferent in different cases. Are all forecasts fair ly similar? Then guide myself mainly by my first or leading impression. Are two, only, alike Then rearrange and form these in- to one. Are all differenf2 Then depend chiefly upon that naturally deduced from the action of the past six months. In this way are my general outlines formed. Further de- tails, which have several times attempted during the winter, have been chiefly deduced