Daily globe. [volume] (St. Paul, Minn.) 1878-1884, 1880-07-29
OUR GREAT GRAIN CROP.
n Cheerful Vie,U as to Quantity. But. an
Unfdrorabte One as to Price.
New York Sun, 24th.

n Cheerful VjetU as to Quantity. But an
Unfauorable One as to Price.
New York Sun. oath.
At this time, when favorable and unfavor-
able reports regarding the crops are manu-
factured for effect in Wall street, and when
SO much interest is felt in what are known
as the Granger stocks, careful calculations
as to our probable yield Of grain in 1880 are
more than usually important.
For three years We have produced remark
able crops, and during the same period the
European crops have been deficient to an ex-
ceptional degree. The consequence has been
that our exports of wheat and flour have run
up to an average more than twice as great as
that for the four years fsg1a 1873 to 1877. IS
Are we likely to have as great surplus for
mand for it be as large as it was from 1877
up to and including the crop of 1879? In
answer to these questions the Daily Com
merciag Bulletin presents statistics and est.
mates of the wheat product which are worth
careful consideration.
The yield for 1879 was 449, ,OO0, 900 bushels,
the largest crop ever gathered in the United
States the average crop for the four years
next preceding having been 2s3, 100000
bushels. The product OF this year is likely
to exceed that of 1879, all reports to the con-
trary Notwithstanding. There is an increased
acreage under cultivation, the weather has
been favorable on the average, and disasters
to the growing crops have so far been con-
fined to a few localities. The wheat was
never in better condition.
The Bulletin, therefore, estimates the
wheat crop for 1880 at 494 100000 bushels,
ten per cent. more than the yield of last
wear. Deducting from this total 250, ,000, 900
bushels for home consumption and for seed,
which is 100000 bushels more than the
average from 1878 to 1876, there remains a
surplus for expectation of PA 100000 bush
els.
What are the chances of our making prof
table disposition of such an enormous sur
plus? If our exports of wheat and flour
equal those of last year, there will still re-
main large supply on hand according to
this estimate. The estimated exports for
1880 amount to total of 175,OOO,0 900
bushels, and the average of the three years
from 1877 to 1880 is 149, 100000 bushels.
But these exports took place during years
when the European crops were successively
deficient, during exceptional years, and it
would not be safe to assume that they will
be eoualed in 1S80-81. The European wheat
harvest promises well this season, though
bad reports come from Russia. We must
base our calculations on that probability.
Our average exports of wheat and -four
during the four years next preceding the
three short crops of Europe were 72,675,O 600
bushels, and the highest amount, that in
1894, was 81, 100000 bushels. If our ex-
ports for this year do not exceed the aver
age for those years, we shall therefore have
a remainder of over 17O,000,O0O bushels,
according to the uzletin's estimate of the
crop, even after deducting the quantity re-
ouired for seed and for home consumption.
But the stocks of wheat in Europe are now
greatly depleted, and to fill them up large
Quantity must be taken from the United
States. Allowing literally for that, there
would still remain in our granaries sur
plus of 100, ,OOO, 900 bushels. Even if the aver
AGE exports of the past three years, the years
of bad crops in the Europe, were kept up,
there would be large surplus.
These estimates go to confirm the opinion
we have repeatedly expressed, that prices
of grain are likely to fall to extraordinarily
low figures before the year is out. The
crop may not be quite as large as the Butte-
tin anticipates, and the exports may be
greater; but the probabilities are that oul
farmers will have to suffer from the conse.
ouences of markets overloaded with grain.