The daily dispatch. [volume] (Richmond [Va.]) 1850-1884, 1880-12-28
.fwash,sston Post.i

iansac States, anU WHICH WIS pWeiCWasN
, severe in this locality. In addition To THIS,
paragraph has been going the ROUNDS OF
the press asserting that the Signal Office
was exercised about Vennor's success. and
was by no means pleased, because the
Canadian could predict storms months In
advance. while It's forecsstings were only
for twenty-four hours, and then not always
correct. A Fest reporter called last eye-
ming upon Professor Cleveland Able, who
n ON the scientific stat OF the Weather Blu
reau. and one OF the most prominent meteo-
biologists 10 the country, 10 learn how Pro-
feSsor Vennor's prophesies were regarded
by the Signal Service.
al was q little amused last Tuesday
morning." said Professor Able, "to hear
ever so many people remark, as they made
the best Of their way through the heavy
snow, that Vea6or was indeed wonderful
man. Yet be did not, as | understand 1t,
predict this storm In the slightest. BE pro-
phesied. II he said anything at all, heavy
spow.storm on or about the 22d OF Decem.
her for the Dominion OF Canada and the
New England States. The snow. as every
body remembers, was TO be eleven feet
deep. Our wearhermap will show you
lust how near Mr. Vennor came to his pre-
dictions. The Storm did not extend further
west than Columbus nor further north than
Philadelphia. lie was just about 500 miles
away from his mark"
N.Tbat is, IL he propbesied for the north
ern part Of the Uuited States and Canada"
1--WE have always understood" said Pro-
fessor Able. "tbat bis predictions include
the 81. Lawrence Valley, and possibly the
Lake Ontario region. II be predicts ;or the
whole North American continent, 1t would
be childish and foolish 10 pay any considera-
ton to his statements. He would be like q
man i knew in ST. Louis. Every once in
awhile this gentleman would rush into the
papers with prediction OF an earthquake,
or some other terrible event, on certain
date. Afterwards he would come out in 4
card, claiming that his prediction was veri-
fled. because there happened 10 be an earth
quake in Australia or the Southern Pacific
islands on the day he named"
"Has the Weather Bureau paid any of
fetal attention TO Mr.. Vennor's prognosti-
catiops?n
ITO test the accuracy of his work we
have occasionally compared his predictions,
as published in the newspapers, which ac-
counts, OF course, contain Geographic and
Typographical errors for which FeDnor is
not responsible, with the real facts. We
fiud that one quarter OF his predictions are
verified, II they are intended for the st.
Lawrence Valley. II they are meant for this
locality. as those who would give bimcredit
for predicting the Tecent storm here must
believe, then notten per cent. OF his prophe-
sizes come true. In view OF his continued
failures, one or two brilliant successes woulG
not justify us In adopting his system of fore
telling the weather"
"UpOn what are his methods for annOun-
cling the weather basedi"
''He keeps his system a secret to himself.
There are, however, a few ways in which
q comparatively truthful guess can be made
at the weather months ahead. The first is
by observing the average weather during
each month for long period. II we find
that for several months the average has been
wet or cold, 1t may be predicted that during
the immediate succeeding months the wea-
Their will be the reverse-that is, dry or
warm. Then we can get at the matter in
another way. When January, February, |
and March have certain characteristics the
latter part Of the year, October, November,
and December, will have correspond |
ing characteristics. Thus the weather |
may be foretold in general sense |
some months ahead. But no man in |
the world has ever devised plan which |
will foretell special storms on certain days, |
or which will afford a genuine prediction |
times asked TO give the weather several days |
in advance in the case OF festival occasions. |
Under favorable conditions we can do this,
with a very good chance OF successful pre-
diction. For instance, the chances are that |
the last few days of August will be clear,
because the records show that this Is the |
case five times to one. This, OF course, re-
lates to particular locality, and cannot be
made to cover the whole country. l sup
pose all Mr.. Vennor's predictions are made
by these methods"
"Did he state where these recent storms
would come from?'
mo; be never does. As matter of
fact, however, 1t began as moderate storm
in the Cult Of Mexico, and grew more in
tense as II passed northward along the At
lantic coast. 1t brought rain on the North
Carolina coast, snow in the Middle States,
and then passed away to the northeastward,
following the path Of very large percent
age OF storms. 1t passed off by New
foundland, probably touching Iceland, and
causing high winds on the coast OF Great
Britain. Its general course could be pre-
dicted by US about two days In advance, but
the severity with which II would visit any
particular locality could not be told more
than twenty-fOur hours ahead. IL people
want US to give the weather indications with
any degree OF accuracy they must not ask
us to undertake the business Professor Ven
nor Is engaged In"
Have you watched the weather predc-
tons Of the Herald which are cabled to
Europe?"
"Yes, sir. During the first months OF
that service very thoroughly and carefully
compared their predictions with the weather
In Europe, aud am satisfied that there are
not more than IL per cent. OF real vertical
tions in the predictions made by the Herald
bureau. There are about 25 per cent. Of
cases that might be considered doubtful [
making little over 40 per cent. Of predic-
tons which come near the truth. A perfectly
independent investigation was made by the [
director OF the London Meteorological OF. 1
fee. and he arrived at precisely the same i
6gure-41 per cent. This Is really no better {
than could be done by guess-work." /
"Do you think Mr.. Vennor Is sincere In |
his propbesies, or only seeking notorietyi" r
81 believe he is perfectly sincere. He q
believes earnestly that there must be pc i
RODS and empirical laws IN the weather y
which will be OF use 10 torelelling 1t. He
u On earnest student OF meteoro!ogy, and I
bis predictions represent the best that can | e
be done with his system. II we.should at d
Tempt TO discover the periodical laws Of the n
weather relating to the locality OF Washing Il
ION by Q study Of the past records, how. a.
sgef,, We should never be able to predict Il
or the future any better than Mr.. Yennor d
8 doing for CANADA that Is, the yerlfca- a
ions would be about twenty. tive per cent" v
Who Is Mr.. Yennor?" asked the Post. v
HE Is at present emBlOyed On the geolo n