, 1880-10-24
NEW YORK,

rur HAEnwR1T1S0 ON THE wArI-rHIRTY
THO1rsAEp REPUBLICAN, MAJORITY.
spectal Dtspateh to The Chicago Trtotsss
Nrw York, Oct 23-The careful estimate Of
the Rcnublican strength in this State, made
dow mr. two ago. has created q stir in Democratic
ORIOLES and caused much talk In the eastern and
central sections Of New York That tho estimate
of at 1eost 1850 Republican majority was based
IN fact is generally Admitted, although Gen.
chester A. Arthur is sapguine that Garfield will
1ood Hancock nearer 90, 900 than 1900. There
ia great apprehension throughout the interior
in respect OF John Kelly and his nominee
tor Mayor Of this city. All this causes
the Democrats to wear an aspect
nf great seriousness Democratic estimates
of the Suite place their majority IN new YORK
County at eo0oo, Kings 10000, Queens aooo, and
Richmond l.S00 In the remainder OF the State
they claim 1885, or total Of N,755, as against
NJ mn in 1875. This does not give more than IN
occasional normal increase except In the case Of
the counties above mentioned. In New York
County the Democratic majority Ia 1873 was
63.oe9: in Kings, 1890. In Queens County
the majority in 1876 was 3o4, and the popularity
of the estimated vote this year IS that It Is
based On the figures that antedate the first John
Kelly rumpus. A prominent Democrat Bays:
/" The Kings County estimate Is regurded by
leading Kings County men
AS VERY HIGH
tnca,lv don't see how they can form any esti-
mate with even approximate accuracy. for, in
tho first. place, Brooklyn is little better than
roost nowadays and the roosters, being employed
very largely by New York men, may possibly vote
rs their employers wish them to. As shown, the
estimated majority in the four counties is 81, 500
and il Queens Is gained by an Indifferent Vote
there is a loss Of 1900, or net total Of 81.a0
with which to meet the Republicans when they
swcep down to Harlem Bridge. What, then, is
the expectation in that regard? What majoritics
do Democrats concede to the Republicans2 It
is shown beyond question that the Democracy
concede 50. .3l5 or a gain Of HIS only over the
interior tnaiorities Of 1870. In other
wavs. while the Demcrats concedo TINT the
Republicans will gain fair proportion OF the
normal addition as per ceusua, they Will 1alt
from their high estate almost as low as they Old
in 1876 II this estimate Is based on TACT the
parties will stand Us follows: Democrats, g7,'55;
Republicans, 59,315: net Democratic majority,
3S 44O: and il tho estimnte published yesterday
be based on fact the parties will stand as fol-
lows: Republican majoEitles, 95,15o; Demo-
CRITIC malortties, G9,140; net Republican
majority. 140l0. It will be seen
that'by these figures the Republicans are snp-
oosed to be more generous than their Demo.
cr,lttc opponents; but 1t must be borne In mind
that tho former have
A DAILY ACCESsSlOHs =
q constant growth. and, In the words OF Gen.
| Arthur, intend to carry New York by $1,000 ma
jority.""
The Herald says:
ttThe Democratic differs widely from the Re
publican estimate in figures and results. WHICH
was to have been expected, but the rival esti. est.
mates nlso differ In tho circumstance TIM!
the Republican leaders make specific ane
nI1usibie statement Of the reasons on which
their expectation Is fouuued, while the nnthors
| Of the Democratic estimate furnish mere nn-
| ,res without reasons II they cannot teH WY
they expect to Increase the majority Whlca d
| Iidcn received in 1876. impartial citizens &C car
| attach no value to their hopefui uEures. FAC
| Democratic leaders seem to take no aocoun
Of the obstacles which lie in their path. Is It ni
| the same whether they: possess the STATE Ge;
| ernmcpt and wield lts patronage as II
| 1878, or whether the Republicans posses:
| this advantage as they do in lSso! Doe.
| It make no difference whether they carry rnt
lndiaua October election as they they did IN io'o, o.
| lose it as they have done IN 1sso! Is tnelr cnw'
arlly retreat from the tariff plank Of their plat
| to be as strong in. a condition of great pros
pcrity like tho present as they were II
ts7o, when the stagnation conseqnen ne e,
| m the panic still continued withou
| any signs of recovery? Are Cen Hhncocks n
discreet letters OF no consequence1 Is olT. 1on.
| Kelly's selection Of q candidate Tor NaJpl
| which is tsr11ntiug the Democratic party oL tnt
CITY. IN account tn the estimate OF ma1oftHes
| The Republican leaders give fntelltgib!e reason
| For their expected success. The Iemocfatl'
leaders only present q set OF ngnres' Wa!cn, H. .,
faras the public is permitted to know. resi- uPo'
nothing but their ardent and sanguine nopes.
1