, 1880-05-30
A TH1RD-1EaM NOMINATION, AND THEN

! .lhG advocates OF the nomination OF ltlllfu
term candidate by the Chicago Convention
affect to find some encouragement III thell
enterprise by claiming that the Democrats
are certain to nominate Tilden, who. i'll turn
will be certain to lose the vote of New York
because Of the Kelly detection.
We wish to call attention to the danger OF
making IL nomination, open to serious opposl'
tion In the Republican party, resting merely
on the expectation that the Democrats will
| nominate 4 weak man.
There is not 4 Democrat III the United
States who hopes for the election Of Demo-
cratic President whose desires 10 not rest
strongly Oh the expectation that the Repub-
licans will nominate third-term candidate.
The selection Of a weak Republican candi-
date, because the Democrats will probably
nominate q man threatened BY serious de-
| lection in his own party, is an exposure Of
the Republican cause to possibility Of defeat
wholly unnecessary, and is Of itself Ii most
ilt-adyised policy. In 1874 the Whig party
| entered the campaign with the most ulllin1-
! tied expectations OF success. Van Buren, had
at that time secured more than two-tEirds Of
the delegates to the Democratic Convention;
his nsnllnation was almost 4 certainty, and
| the pronounced dcfecuon In New York and
other Democratic States rendered his defeat
equally certain. Therefore the Whlgs were
jubilant. But the Democratic Convention
did not nominate Van Buren,; they nomi-
mated Polk, and 3fr. Clay was disastrously
defeated.
But, even If the Republicans shall nomi-
nate tlird-term candidate, and the Demo-
Gratis shall be so obliglng as to nominate Til
den, and Kelly shall continue his bolt, will
the nomination Of a tlird-term candidate be
u guaranty of an election?
There are 800 Electoral votes, Of which, In
1876, Mr.. Hayes got Isl and Mr.. Tilden got
184. Mr.. Ti1len then received IS votes from
New York, Is from Indiana, from New
Jersey, and 6 from Connecticut making a
total of Is votes from the Northern States.
At the same time Mr.. Hayes obtained the
votes Of Louisiana (6), Florida ~, and South
Carolina ~, total of 10 votes from the
Southern States.
III the Northern States Mr.. Hayes car
ried Ohio (23 yotes) by a majority of
1000, California Is votes) by a majority OF
2,7G9 and Oregon e yotes) By majority
of 1,05o. 1t will be seen that Mr.. Hayes,
against whom there wis no Republican op-
position, obtained. these 81. votes III these
three States by less than II ,0D votes.
In 1876 the vote Of New York was essential
to the election Of T1llell because of the prob
able loss of Southern votes, and, despite this |
loss, he was defeated by only one majority. |
LII 1sso the South is so solid that the LBS votes
may be counted for any Democratic candi- I
.3afa 114
gives the Democratic candidate 13s votes to |
start with, leaving him wanting only II votes !
more to be elected. If lie obtain New York
(35) and Indiana (15} he will have more than |
are needed to elect him. But many GRANTEES |
are specializing on the probability of Til
denis nomination and on John Kelly defeat
ing him III New York, and never once reflect
irg that, with certain defeat in Ohio III Octo-
ber on thira-term issue, the battle would be
lost i'll November, 10 matter whom the Dem
ocrats were running. The demoralixlng con-
sequences Of defeat in Ohio would be irrepar-
able.
The Republican Convention will assume
terrible responsibility by inviting, and pro-
voking, and defying deep-rooted and wide
spread hostility to the election Of any third
term candidate. This objection, while exist
ing generally in all the Republican States, pre-
7ails strongly and more derertninedly among
the Republicans Of Ohio, Indiana, New
Connecticut New Jersey, and
California from which States only one third
'er1n delegate has been elected to the Chi
:ago Convention. These six States will give
he following Electoral votes, and gave ma
0rities III 1S7C as stated: