Daily globe. [volume] (St. Paul, Minn.) 1878-1884, 1879-06-30

Clal 6StlmaCeS-tlOS6 OF the department. OF
agriculture at Washington seem to be
based upon nothing but unofficial guesses,
and are so tardy in their appearance that
they seem to be only desperate dashes to
strike an average of the popular opinion.
Even the census of 1870, while it furnished
the estimate of the total crop of wheat, gave
nothing in regard to the area upon which
the crop of 2S7, 900 bushels of wheat for
that year was raised.
ONLY FIGURES
which have the semblance of anything ap-
preaching information Oh tie subject of the
total area of wheat planted are the estimates
year as given in the monthly crop report of
the department OF agriculture. These, it is
true. are only guesses, but it isprobable they
are not over ten per cent out of the way
from the truth, and, as the amount of in
crease each year is small as compared with
the whole area planted in wheat, the discre-
pencies might not be so very great if it was
only known that the original total of acres
(say in 1870 to which these yearly additions
have been made was correct. For instance,
it is tolerably certain that the increase in the
area of wheat sown in 1873 over 1877 was
between 100000 and 100000 acres, and
further, that there has been no year since
1870 in which there has not been an in
crease in the acreage, unless it be tho year
1877, which, according to the agricultural
department reports, showed decrease of
], 900 acres from the area of 1876. This
reported decrease of area in 1877 was not
sustained by general belief, nor by anything
else very definite. Nevertheless, as we have
no other official data it must be accepted as
the only foundation upon which the estimate
for the expectation of the crop of 1879 can
be based.
The bulletin of the agricultural depart
nlent for June, 1879, indicated that there
was an increase this year of about per cent.
in the total area of wheat planted. -Four
per cent. on the 3o,G93, 4o7 acres planted in
| 1878, would give increase of 1920
acres or total of say 81 1921, 143 acres plant.
ed for the crop of 1879. This small increase
| as compared with last year seems reasonable,
from the fact that the low price of wheat
has discouraged it's prodution in the older
states where the yield per acre is small COM
pared to the crops on the virgin soil of the
| far northwestern Territories and States. Rail-
way competition, with its result of cheap
freight for long distances, is having the eff
feet to push the territory of greatest wheat
production further and further west.
| THE YIELD PER ACRE
of wheat in the whole United States in 1878
was an average of say 10 $4,000 bushels, or
nearly 8115 per cent above the average yield
| OF the six previous years. Had it not been
for the blight in July of last year to the
spring wheat crops of Minnesota. Iowa and
Wisconsin, which probably diminished the
total crop by 100000 bushels, the total
average yield would have been about IA
bushels per acre, or about Is per cent. above
the average yield per acre of the six previous
years. In fact the yield of winter wheat was
currently estimated to be about Is per cent.
above an average crop, and this presumption
was sustained by the enormous quantity of
| winter wheat which came to market The
condition of the growing wheat which pro-
duced the above results, was reported in the
bulletin Of the agricultural department for
June 1, 1878, at lo1 for the whole winter
wheat region, and as late as July 1, 1873, il
was reported by the bulletin of the depart
ment as high as 100 for the spring wheat
region.
| THE EXPECTATION
for 1879 as compared with 1878 may be esti
mated from the fact that the bulletin of The
agriculture! department for June 1, 1879, in.
dicates the average conditionsof the growing
wheat crop throughout the United States by
the figures 90.
This indicates condition of the growing
crop at, say, Is per cent. lower or more un
favorable than last year. AS the expectation
last year at this time was, say, 455, 900 900
bushels (this was before the damage to thu
spring wheat in july it would show that ou7
expectation now, from the same number O
, acres. would be 78,250,00O bushels less, or
total crop of, say, 376, 100000 bushels, and l.
we add IL bushels per acre for the increased
area of, say, 122. 773,628 acres, say Is 900, O0l
bushels, we have 800, O,0C0 bushels as the
utmost expectation for the crop Of 1879.
This, compared with the 425, 200, 900 RAISED
in 1873, leaves deficiency of, say, "a, $50 ,0O'
bushels, and as the decrease must all come of
the surplus available for export, it woult
leave, at the utmost, only about 116,000,O0(
, bushels for export in the year to July l, 1880
, instead of the 15O,O0O,OOO which has beer
exported in the year to July 1, 1879.
, But even this expectation is based upol
the presumption that nothing will happen tt
the spring wheat in July this year as Their
did last It was after this time in tn
summer that the spring wheat was damage,
; last year, and, as the crops of both white
and spring wheat are more backward thi
year, it is fair presumption that blight
rust, drouth, grasshoppers, chinch-bugs o.
some of the other numerous evils to whic]
wheat is liable will reduce the above expecta
ton at least 100000 bushels. Indeed
the ravages of grassboppers in the extrem
northwestern corner of Iowa and in the ad
jacent parts of Dakota and Nebraska sine
the June report of the agricultural depart
ment has already diminished the expectatio,
on the whole crop of spring wheat.
! A reasonable forecast of the crop of 1877
would show that in consequence Of th
drouth which prevailed over the entire whea
raising sections of the United States fror
about the lst of March until about the 25t
of May, and also of the subsequent damag
by grasshoppers and other insects, the ave.
I age yield of wheat IN tho United States thi
! year will not be above IL bushels per acre
! or say, at most, 3S0,00O,OO0 bushels, agains
b 425, 100000 in 1878.
9 THE ExPORTABLE SURPLUS
! out of the crop of 1879 will therefore prob;
!. bly, be at least 45,OOO,OOO bushels less TIA
: that of the crop Of 1873. The end of tt
2 fiscal year, July 1, 1879, will Sow that "
have exported to foreign countries in its Y;
!. rious forms of grain, -four and bread, ju
: about 15O.OO0,00O bushels of wheat. II
u stock of wheat now remaining in sight
s the United States is somewhat larger than
P the corresponding time last year, but it
well understood that there is less wheat
fo~, n~os hop1o ~ &hn ,,pooork %fvoo &ho,,