The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1879-02-20
amended. provided that these two great and
fundamental features are preserved.
Prediction as the Antoeedent of Dis
cOvery.

| covery.
A comparison of the views of American
and English Swans in regard to Mr.. Norman
Lockyer's alleged discoveries in solar
physics, as deduced from our London letter
this morning. may lead to two excellent re-
suits the ascertainment OF just what was
actually known or believed upon the sub
ect at given date. and the calculation of
the important part played here, as else
where, in scientific discovery, by priori
theories, which may be said to supply pro-
phetic basis for research.
Assuming for the nonce the accuracy OF
Mr.. Lockyer's latest observations, it is evil
dent that it becomes matter Of high in
terest to ascertain just how far his con-
illusions are in accordance or otherwise with
the tendency OF speculative thought. and
this leads to the query whether the greater
praise should be assigned to those discov-
cries of fact which confirm previous theories
or to such as overturn them. In other
words, is there the greater merit in subvert-
ing or in confirming by experiment the
speculative views held by the experimenter
the highest honors to unexpected results,
but maturer consideration will reverse the
verdict
An instructive example will be found in
the present instance in considering the
progress of theory aud of experiment in
that solar region where Mr.. Lockyer's dis
coveries have been made 1t has been
known for years that the suns color
envelope or chromatosphere, is region OF
incandescent vapor. 1t should have been u
necessary inference from this fact that if
the chromatosphere could be observed any
where in the absence of the central light
nucleus, or philosophers, we should see
bright lines on dark ground instead of
dark lines on a bright ground. Such dis
covery ought not to have been accidental,
as it really was. It ought to have been
predicted from the moment that the theory
Of the dark lines in the ordinary spectrum
was admitted. Nevertheless, this discovery,
which was made by Professor Young, of
Princeton, in his observations Of solar
eclipse, was considered remarkable one.
Many discoveries which ought to have
been foreseen have been made in casual
manner, the alteration Of light being one
notable instance. On the other hand some
important accidental discoveries, like that
of iodine by Courtois, could not possibly
have been predicted. Still others have
been made in manner not entirely acct
dental, but as tho result Of experimental
research directed to elucidate some obscure
point, in respect to which something was
to be discovered, while the nature of the
solution to be arrived at could not be an.
induction Of electric currents furnishes o
memorable example. He imagined him
self to have discovered what he called an
electro-tonic state of O conductor, but
| further research proved that he had only
failed up to that point to understand the
phenomena of secondary currents. The
discovery of oxygen by Cavendish is an
other example.
| Now, the scientific mind can have no diff
fculty in assigning to those experimental
researches which confirm previous theory
higher merit than to those which lead to
results utterly unexpected. The latter may
| be more curious or more intrinsically VAL
liable, but they cannot be rated SO high in
| the scale of scientific reputation. This
being admitted, the merit of Mr.. Lockyer's
researches will consist precisely in the fact,
| not that they overthrow current theories,
but that they confirm views long held by
the most thoughtful physicists. In any
case his contribution to science is q prac-
teal, not q theoretical, one. The ultimate
simplicity of the elements is q favorite doc
| trine Of the French school Of chemists
founded by j. b. Dumas, and the mathe-
NAUTICAL calculations OF Mendeleef, Newlands
and Wilde have familiarized the scientific
men of Europe with the idea that the So
called elements differ merely because
their molecules consist of atoms differently
grouped, or, in other words, that form
rather than substance is the cause Of all the
varying properties of matter. The claw Of
periodicity" MS formulated by Mendeleef
received q brilliant confirmation at the
hands Of Lecoq de Boisbaudran, who dis
covered the metal gallium with precisely
the atomic weight and the chemical proper
ties ascribed by Mendeloef to ''missing
link" among the metals. There are now on
record very many theoretical generaliza-
tions which only await the confirmation of
experimental research to take their places
among the most remarkable achievements
of the human intellect. It is one of the
urgent demands of modern science that
experimentalists should familiarize them
selves with the theories they too generally
neglect When they shall have done so it
is safe to say that the scientific use of the
imagination" will be elevated to the dignity
of an Art Of Prediction.
RrOasxyav RnflrOpA Proaerf.