The Worthington advance. [volume] (Worthington, Minn.) 1874-1908, 1879-07-03

the crop OF Zol, ,f4oOOO buSnel8 OF wheat for
that year was raised.
THE ONLY FIGURES
which have the semblance of anything an
proaching information Oh tie subject of the
total area of wheat planted are the estimates
of the increase Of area planted in wheat each
year as given in the monthly crop report of
the department of agriculture. These, it is
true. are only guesses, but it isrrobable they
are not over ten per cent. out of the way
from the truth, and, as the amount of in
crease each year is small as compared with
the whole area planted in wheat, the discre-
pencies might not be SO very great if it was
only known that the original total of acres
(say in 1870 to which these yearly additions
have been made was correct. For instance,
it is tolerably certain that the increase in the
area of wheat sown in 1878 over 1877 was
between 4,5O0, 600 and 100000 acres, and
further, that there has been no year since
1870 in which there has not been an in
crease in the acreage, unless it be the year
1877, which, according to the agricultural
department reports, showed decrease of
1,423, 600 acres from the area of 1876. This
reported decrease of area in 1877 was not
sustained by general belief, nor by anything
else very definite. Nevertheless, as we have
no other official data it must be accepted as
the only foundation upon which the estimate
for the expectation Of the crop of 1879 can
be based.
The bulletin of the agricultural depart
ment for June, 1879, indicated that there
was an increase this year of about per cent.
in the total area of wheel planted. Four
per cent. on the 30,693 ,407 acres planted in
1873, would give an increase of 1927. .736
acres or total of say 81 1921 ,143 acres plant.
ed for the crop of 1879. This small increase
as compared with last year seems reasonable
from the fact that the low price of wheat
has discouraged its prodution in the older
states where the yield per acre is small COM
pared to the crops on the virgin soil of the
far northwestern Territories and States. Rail-
way competition, with its result of cheap
freight for long distances, is having the ef-
feet to push the territory of greatest wheat
production further and further west.
THE YIELD PER ACRE
of wheat in the whole United States in 1873
was an average of say Is 56-10O bushels, OF
nearly 8H per cent above the average yield
of the six previous years. Had it not been
for the blight in July Of last year to the
spring wheat crops of Minnesota, Iowa and
Wisconsin, which probably diminished the
total crop by 81, 600 bushels, the total
average yield would have been about II
bushels per acre, or about Is per cent. above
the average yield per acre of the six previous
years. In fact the yield of winter wheat was
currently estimated to be about Is per cent.
above an average crop, and this presumption
was sustained by the enormous quantity of
winter wheat which came to market. The
condition of the growing wheat which pro-
duced the above results, was reported in tho
bulletin Of the agricultural department for
June l, 1873, at 1O1 for the whole. winter
wheat region, and as late as July l, 1873, it
was reported by the bulletin of the depart.
ment as high AZ 1O9 for the spring wheat
region.
THE EXPECTATION
for 1879 as compared with 1873 may be esti-
mated from the fact that the bulletin of the
agricultural department for June l, 1879, in
dicates the average condition of the growing
wheat crop throughout the United States by
the figures 80.
This indicates 4 condition of the growing
crop at, say, Is per cent. lower or more un-
favorable than last year. As the expectation
last year at this time was, say, 455, ,OOO, 900
bushels (this was before the damage to the
sprlng wheat in JULY, it would show that our
expectation now, from the same number of
acres, would be 78, ,25O, 600 bushels less, or a
total crop Of, say, 376, 75O, 600 bushels, and if
We add IL bushels per acre for the increased
area of, say, ,628 acres, say Ii, ,O00, 600
bushels. We have $50, 750, 600 bushels as the
utmost expectation for the crop of 1879.
This, compared with the 425, ,O00, 900 raised
in 1878, leaves deficiency of, say, "a, ,25O, 600
bushels, and rs the decrease must all come of
the surplus available for export, it would
leave, at the utmost, only about 116, ,OOO, 900
bushels for export in the year to July /, 1880,
instead of the 150,O0O,OOO which has been
exported in tho year to July l, 1879.
But oven this expectation is based upon
the presumption that nothing will happen to
the spring wheat in July this year A. there
did last. It was after this time in the
summer that the spring wheat was damaged
Last year, and, % the crops of both winter
and spring wheat are more backward this
year, it is fair presumption that blight,
rust, drouth, grasshoppers, chinch-bues or
some of the other numerous evils to which
wheat is liable will reduce tho above expecta-
ton at least 100000 bushels. Indeed,
the ravages of grasshoppers in tho extreme
northwestern corner of Iowa and in the ad.
jacent parts of Dakota and Nebraska since
the June report of tho aericultur,l depart-