Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1879-10-30
An Eight-Page Paper ON Saturday.
The Political Situation in York
State.

AS the day Of election approaches, the regular
democrats In New York are endeavoring to
arouse enthusiasm for their ticket. Speaker
Randall, Senators Wallace and Herman, and
other prominent leaders, are making speeches,
but they confine themselves to New York city.
That is the locality upon which the Robinson
democrats are concentrating their whole ener-
gies. They are depending upon the "RobinSOn
republicans" throughout the state-outsde the
city-to Offset the Kelly detection This would
put the party vote about at its usual figures
when party lines are closely drawn. Their cal
culation then, is to roll up sufficient majority
for Robinson inside the city to overcome the
majority for Cornell outside the city. 1t is ap-
parent now that this is the plan Of the regular
democratic battle, but their only chance of
success is to reduce the Kelly vote to $4,000
or 10000. Should Kelly poll in the
city one-half the vote he claims, it will
be impossible for Robinson to get votes
enough to overcome the usual republic
can majority given by the state outside the
city. 1t is estimated that 100000 votes will be
cast In the city at the coming election OF this
Kelly claims he will get $1,000, that Robinson
will get $4,000 and Cornell $4,000. The hopeful
republicans estimate that their ticket will get
10000 and that the balance-90. 000-wll be so
equally divided between the Tammany and
Robinson tickets as to defeat them both. This
estimate, however, is based upon supposed re-
publican gain in the city. They have never
polled more than $1,000, and then under ex-
ceptionally favorable circumstances. The
Robinson managers claim that their ticket will
get from IS 600 to 90 900 of the votes cast in the
city; that Kelly viii get $4,000 or 90 600. and Cor
nell the balance OF the $50 900. OF course each side
makes the most favorable estimate for its own
ticket The republicans are also making great
efforts in the city, and they calculate upon Cor
nell receiving the votes of great many Kelly
democrats. Should this calculation be correct
it upsets all chances OF RobinsonS election
though one of the local democratic tickets in the
city and county of New York may win.
Upon the basis of the total vote in 1876 an esti-
mate of the probable result in the state is made.
In that year the republicans polled 40 900 votes
and the democrats 100000. A republican calcu-
lation is that Cornell will lose under 5000 votes
by scratching, and that not more than 10000 re-
publicans will vote for Robinson. Then the
prohibition vote of 5000 [estimated) is taken
from Cornell, and it is calculated that he will
lose 5000 of the 25 900 (estimated) greenback and
scattering votes In the state This would bring
his total vote down to Al 900. The total demo-
cratic vote, then, is placed at 1000, of which
$4,000 are given to Kelly, and it is calculated
that at least 5000 will go to the greenbackers
or be lost to Robinson by scratching and scatter
ing. This estimate elects Mr.. Cornell by a
handsome plurality, and, in making it. the re
publicanS, say they have not considered the re-
vival of business and other conditions favorable
to them.
The Robinson managers assume to believe tina
their candidate will get from $4,000 to $4,000 re
publican votes and that, from TO- 900 to 15 900 re
publicans will scratch Cornell, not voting 70
any candidate for governor. Then they pu
Kelly's total vote down as low as from Is, 900 to
$4,000, by which figures they elect their candi
date. Kelley's friends claim that he will poll
total vote in the state Of from 1884, 900 to 100000
and that the Tammany county ticket in New
York will get $4,000 votes.