The New York herald., 1879-09-09


slS72. 2............ 133.iT2 59,2GO
1876 l5o,O64 1oS,777 779
Looking at this table alone it might be suspected
that the astonishing rise from the Greeley vote to
that for Tilden abrupt, and therefore did not
signify permanence On the contrary, an examine
ton of the in the intermediate years shows
that it was gradual. In 1874 democratic Governor
(r Gaston) was elected in the popular vote for the
first time since 1889. when Marcus Morton had
majority of one in total of nearly hundred thou
sand. Judge Mortons reelection in 1S43 and Mr..
Boutwen's election in 1851 and 1852 were by the
Legislature, there being no choice in the popular
vote plurality system not then prevailing)
Continuing the examination beyond 1876 an
analysis of the vote for Governor in 1877
shows how good grounds there were for conf
dence that the increase destined to be steadily
progressive. The republican and democratic per-
centages i'll the total of 1876 respectively 597
and AZ o3 in the total of 1877 they 4947 and
3967 temperance and greenback candidates carrying
off the remaining ten per cent.
1T ALL TuMpLEs DOWN SUDDENLY.
Thus the democrats almost holding their
own against the field and relatively the republi-
they were gaining, when. in 1875 the personal
candidacy of General Butler for Governor split their
party. lle carried of some eighty thousand demo
Thousand at the polls The vote last year was-
Tabot, republican 1874, ,727
Abb IT, regular democrat rat................. l0,1G2
Butter, nonuescript.. l0v,fJo
Besides 1913 votes cast for a temperance
candidate. Buffers percentage of the total was
i2.71-exceeding even Tildens. The regular" DEM
ocratic percentage reduced to 397. Abbott how
ever. about five thousand behind his ticket.
The for the candidate for Lieutenant Governor
cd wifi of <
cast directly for Talbot. Judge Abbott's own
among them. But this gain to the republicans was
Offset by the detection of twice the number among
themselves, who substituted Buffers for Tai
bots on the regular republican ticket. Mr.. Talbot,
even with his direct democratic assistance,
nearly two thousand behind his associates while
Butler led his own ticket nearly ten thousand.
1t is easy to conjecture how the regular demo-
cratic leaders, under these circumstances.
tremely exasperated. They have retained the sacred
ark of regularity" to be sure, but almost four
ffths of their people have srayed after Butler and
he has organized an independent democratic priest
hood which sets up equal claims to saDctity with
their own, and which undoubtedly will send
testing delegation to the Democratic National Con-
vention in 1880 1t is easy to understand also
how natura y their eyasperaton found vent against
Butler personally when one remembers his political
In 1860 he pronounced in
his Southern affiliations than any other demo-
Jefferson Davis in the ballots for Pres-
Dental candidate in the Charleston Conven-
ton. When the war had progressed far enough
for him to perceive that the republican party was
sure of long lease of national power he turned
publican. and soon distinguished himself by equal
ultraism i'll his relations. Them after more
than fiji teen years enjoyment OF place at the hands
of the republicans. he turned democrat enough
again, soon he thought that the fortunes of
parties about to be reversed, TO attract four
hfths of the TO lowing which the patient democratic
leaders had been slowly gaining through a long
period OF political suffering aud obloquy. II a
stranger wishes to hear General Butler viled with
the utmost possible cordality the republican head
quarters are not the best place to apply. Let him.
rather, mention Buffers name at any free social
ard him very much as your Mr.. Kelly says he does
toward your Governor Robinson
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLICANS AND PRoHrBIToRY INDIE
PENDENTs.
From present indications deem that the fate of
the canvass depends upon how much of this ''regu-
lar democratic support the republican candidate
again Will draw and what degree of secret detection
he again Will suffer in his own party. combined with
the strength which a temperance ticket my de-
velop do not deem republican victory sure.
Many of the republican leaders impress
confident. Some OF them talk rashy as il they
had their ancient maiorities of 10000 $4,000
TO draw upon But Mr. Taloot's majority
last year was only 1926. His plurality Butler
u, 200. the first and the last OF the three
elements have named in the problem, the substance
and the tone of the resolutions OF the republican
State Convention will have some influence but the
character OF it's candidates will have much more As
between Mr. Pierce and Mr.. Long, the rivals Tor the
republican nomination. there is no doubt that the
the republican ticket in 1913. while the former
would double the number and even draw directly
from Buffers own strength. Especially In Boston,
where the republicans are IN minority. Mr.. Pierce
would make great gains, not only from the demo-
cratic "reguars,' but also from the Butler demo-
Gratis themselves. 1t Is highly probable that he
would more than reverse the vote OF the city which
gave plurality OF nearly live thousand TO butler
iast year On the other hand there is some founda-
ton for the claim advanced IN Mr.. Longs behalf
that he would DE more satisfactory than Mr.. Pierce
To the pfohibitory temperance all over the
tion to meet at Boston the oath lust,
after all the other conventions will nave
BEEN held. and the very language of their call
equally excludes both ar. Pierce and Mr. Ionn from
favor, IL being addressed to al .guo believe That
political party making the suppression OF the liquor
traffic an open. ayowed issue is an indispensable
necessity" belief which neither of those gentle
always las been remarkable for It's fluctuations 1t
shrank from l6S5A IL 1877 to lob in 1875. No in
tellgent cstn'te or It's strength this year pos
siby be made for several wceas vet. Az to the
probabilities OF any more extensive secret detection
among the republicans than there was last year,
when nearly 1000 scratched Taibots name and sub
stItuted Buffers. they are very small 1hatnunlbcr
rcpresents the utmost extent OF the influence OF
ex-Collector simmons and all the other politicians
OF his kind who then remained nominally with the
republicans but since have gone ayowcdly with
Butler. Il makes no difference, of course, IN the
total result whether they openly secede or secretly
scratch.
BETTER TIMES.
The principal reason | hear alleged for the wide.
spread con donce among the republicans that they
VIII have easier victory over Genera Butler than
ia 1878 consists la the improvement of business.
have asked tho question OF more than score OF
their active politicians lately, "What is your reason
for believing that any one Of the 10000 who voted
for him then VIII not do so nowT and the only
answer havo received Is, THE times are better -
Certainly this is true. Ia tho mercantile and manu-
featuring circles of Massachusetts there rs unwonted
cheerfulness. and pretty extensive personal inqu-
rios which l have made confirm the reports of tho
Bureau OF Labor Statistics At the state House that
tho number of unemployed workingmen is less than
1t has been for great many years, But considering
General Buffers resources, and the great personal
interests he has at stake, II fairly may be doubted
whether the influence of "better times will be suf
Gcent alone 10 control the event of this election.
No doubt it tells against him, but there many
other elements ia the canvass whose potency IL re-