The Hartford herald., 1879-09-10

SuppOsing that there will be no con-
test regarding the vote of any State, the
candidate receiving the majority, or
lS5, of these votes will be entitled to
the Presidential Office. In 1876 Mr..
Tilden carried all the Southern States
evcept Florida, South Carolina, and
Louisiana. In the North he captured
the Electoral votes of New York, New
jersey, Connecticut and Indiana. His
total vote i'm the College, as denied by
Congress, under the scheme devised by
the Electoral Commission was 1S4. OF
this number he received ll9 from
Southern and 65 from Northern States.
About these lS4 votes there was no dis
pute. Mr.. Hayes received 166 votes
from Northern and 10 from disputed
States of Louisiana, South Carolina and
Florida, Making total of 1S5.
1t is, of course, impossible at this ear
ly day to wisely foretell results in the
next election in any of the really doubt
full States, but the prevailing impress
sion among well-informed Observers on
both sides is that the South will be sol
id for the Democratic ticket. Judging
by the last Presidential election and the
Congressional and State elections held
since, Alabama, Arkansas, ,SouthC Carolina
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana,
Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, North
Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia,
and West Virginia, will choose Demo-
cratic Electors i'm 1880. This would
give the Democratic ticket 135 votes.
In order to secure the Presidential prize
the Democrats must get 80 additional
votes from the North. BY strange
| aainai1nnan a tho Mort hnrrn rot
which they feel most confident i'm car
rying-New York and Indiana-have
precisely the number of votes necessa-
ry to swell the 1873 from the South to
the 1S5 that will elect. In the event
of these States giving Democratic ma
jorities, the relative strength of the par
the same as i'm the Presidential contest,
though the majority of one vote would
be shifted to the Democratic side.
AS matter of course, if the Demo-
Gratis lose New York their chances for
victory will be utterly destroyed. All
the other Northern States that can by
any exercise of arithmetical ingenuity
be tortured into the doubtful column
would not make up for the loss of New
YOrd's thirty-five votes. They can find
no comfort in New Jersey, for if New
York goes Republican, New Jersey will
do likewise. If they were to carry Con-
necticut, California, Nevada and Ore
gon, and lose New York, they would
still be out of reach of the great prize
The deductions from these figures and
the indications of the present are that
New York will be the great battle
ground in the next campaign. IL the
Republicans carry the State their ticket
will be elected certainly. They might
lose New York and still elect, but the
risk would be very great. Ii the DEM
ocrats lose New York, their defeat is in
evitable. They may carry the State
and still lose the election, but under the
circumstances that is a most improba-
BILE contingency. 1t is the vast impOr-
tance of New York that makes Tilden's
chances of nomination so strong, and
the same reason will compel the Repub-
licans to pick out for their banner-bear-
er the man most likely to overthrow
the Democracy of the Empire State.
OUR VIEWS.
1t will be seen that New York is the
pivotal State i'm his estimate, and that
the difference between the two parties
in the Electoral College is but one vote.
1t is conceded the Democrats are certain
of l3S votes, but the Republicans imag-
inc it is impossible to get the remaining
A. without New York.
Now it is barely possible the Republi-
cans will lose Name, and if they do
where are their chances? And then
how about Ohio? 1t is not possible
that the Democrats may lose New York
and yet elect the President. For ex-
ample, the States of Ohio, %; Indiana,
Is; Oregon, 3, and Maine Z, make a
total of 47-just enough. Or the fig