Stevens County tribune. (Morris, Minn.) 1877-1880, 1879-07-10


1874. 24.g67,27 sos, lO2. 700 IL. 80
1875 .Z6, 1881, 5l2 222. l3f 900 Hoo
1876. 81. 627,r21 289. 356 $40 ~. 40
1877. ...... &c. 193, 4O7 365, GOA 800 Is. 80
1878 80. 693,0I0 425,OOU.0O0 Is. so
1879 ..... 81 921 l43 ........ .....
All figures i'll regard to the area of wheat
planted each year in the United States are
open to very free criticism. The only Off
cial estlmates-those of the department of
agriculture at Washington-seem to be
based upon nothing but unofficial guesses,
and are so tardy in their appearance that
they seem to be only desperate dashes to
strike an average of the popular opinion.
Even the census of 1870, while it furnished
the estimate of the total crop of wheat, gave
thing IN regard to the area upon which
the crop If 287, 745,O00 bushels of wheat for
that year was raised.
THE ONLY FIGURES
which have the semhlance of anything ap
preaching information Oil tie subject of the
total area of wheat planted are the estimates
If the increase of area planted in wheat each
YEAR ss given in the monthly crop report of
the department of agriculture. These, it is
true. are only gueese~, but 1t is probable they
are not over ten per cent. out of the way
from the truth, and. as the amount of in
crease each year is small as compared with
the whole area planted In wheat, the discre-
pencies might not be SO very great if 1t was
only known that the original total of acres
(say in 1870 to which these yearly additions
have been made was correct. For instance,
it is tolerably certain that the increase in the
area of wheat sown in 1878 over 1877 was
between 4,5OO, 900 and 5,OOO,0OO acres, and
further, that there has been NO year since
1870 in which there has not been an in
crease in the acreage, unless it be the year
1877, which, according to the agricultural
department reports, showed decrease of
1923, 600 acres from the area of 1876. This
r. POI ted decrease of area III 1877 was no
sustained by general belief, nor by anythins
else very definite. Nevertheless, as we hav
no other official data it must be accepted
the only foundation upon which the estima
for the expectation of the crop of 1879 ca
be based.
The bulletin of the agricultural depart
ment for June, 1879, indicated that there
was an increase this year of about per cent
in the total area of whept planted. -Four
per cent. on the 30.693. 407 acres planted in
1873, would give an increase of l,227.73e
acres or a total of say 81 1921, 143 acres plant
ed for the crop of 1879. This small increase
as compared with last year seems reasonable
from the fact that the low price of wheat
has discouraged its prodution in the Older
states where the yield per acre is small com
pared to the crops on the virgin soil of the
far northwestern Territories and States. Rail
way competition, with its result of cheap
freight for long dist noes, is having the eff
tect to push the territory of greatest wheat
production further and further west.
THE YIELD PER ACRE
of wheat in the whole United States in 1875
was an average of say Is 5000 bushels, OIL
nearly 80 per cent above the average yield
of the SIX previous years. Had it not been
for the blight In July of last year to the
spring wheat crops of Minnesota, Iowa and
Wisconsin, which probably diminished the
total crop b, 100000 bushes, the total
average yield would have been about IL
bushels per acre, or about Is per cent. above
the average yield per acre of the six previous
years. In fact the yield of winter wheat was
currently estimated to be about 10 per cen:
above an average crop, and this presumption
was sustained by the enormous quantity OF
winter wheat which came to market. TIE
condition of the growing wheat which pro
duced the above results, was reported in the
June l, 1878, at 1O1 for the whole winter
! wheat region, and as late as July l, 1873, il
was reported by the bulletin OF the depart
ment as high as 100 for the spring whea
region.
THE EXPECTATION
| for 1879 as compared with 1873 may be est
mated from the fact that the bulletin of thu
| agriculture department for June l, 1879, in
dicates the average condition of the growing
wheat crop throughout the United States BY
the figures 80.
This indicates a condition of the CROWNS
crop at, say, Is per cent. lower or more un
favorable than last year. AS the expectation
last year at this time was, say, 455, 000, OO(
bushels (this was before the damage to thu
spring wheat in July it would show that on
expectation now, fr,.m the same number q
ncres. would be 78,250.OOO bushels less, or
total crop of, say. 376 100000 bushels. and l
Ne add IL bushels PER ere for the increased
area of, say, 22.773. 628 acres, say 15,OOO,OOt
bushels, we have 800 75O,0OO bushels as tn,
uim most expectation for the crop of 1879.
This. compared with the 425.OOO, 900 raised
in 1873, leave 8 deficiency of, say, "a 25O00'
bushels, and as the decrease must all come OF
the surplus available for export, it wOult
( I0dVes hG Tue ubuOSLs OILY AUOuG A1OSOOOOW
bushels for export in the year to July l, 1886
instead of the 150,0tO,000 which has beel
exported in the year to July l, 1879.
But even this expectation is based upol
the presumption that nothing will happen L
the spring wheat in July this year as Their
did last. 1t was after this time in tn
summer that the spring wheat was damage
last year. and, as the crops of both winte
and spring wheat are more backward thi
year, It is a fair presumption that blight
rust drouth, grasshoppers, chincn-bugs o
some of the other numerous evils to whic
wheat is liable will reduce the above exuects
ton at least 10,000.OO0 bushels. Indeed
the ravages of grasshoppers in the extrem
northwestern corner of Iowa and in the ad
AGENT parts of Dskota and Nebraska sine
the June report of the agricultural depart
ment has already diminished the expectation
on the whole crop of spring wheat.
A reasonable forecast of the crop of 1877
would show that in consequence of th
drouth which prevailed over the entire whes
raising sections of the United States fror
about the 1st of March until about the 25t
of May, and also of the subsequent damag
hy grasshoppers and other insects, the avel
age yield of wheat In the United States thi
year will not be above III bushels per acre
or say, at most, 3S0, 0O0, 600 bushels, agains
425, O00, 900 in 1878.
THE ExPoRTABLE SURPLUS
A, -