New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1879-08-14

is a close observer of the field Of National
politics, discusses. in letter printed below,
the present aspect Of the race for the nominal
tons for the Presidency IN 1880. 1t Is as
serted that Mr.. Tilden will certainly he the
candidate of the Democrats. The chances OF
the various men who have been mentioned for
the Republican nomination are debated.
THE CANDIDATES AND THEIR STRENGTH
rILDEN AND THE DEMOCEATs-HIs NOMGNATION
PRACTICALLY AssURED-TnF REPUBLucAN FIELD
GRANT BLAINE. SHERMAN AND wAsHBURNE
FROM THE PRESENT OUTLOOK.
IFRoM STAFF CORRESPONDENT OF THE TR!BUVg.l
MANHATTAN BEACH. Aug. 11.-You NAV think all
this gossip and speculation about the Presidential
candidates Of next year tiresome and proftess, but
there is no way Of escaping it. The very men WHO
vote the whole subject bore are the first to bring
it up stop-gap TO the pauses of conversation. II
is the perennial topic Wlea a doesn't know
Just what to say next 10 a friend he asks him who
he thinks viii be the next President When poll
ticians meet, the well-wOrn theme Is frashenet up
in the hight Of recent events and brought on the
carpet at once. Nor we likely to have any rest
from it, for the National conventions are only nine
or ten months off and the discussion Will not slacken
as they draw nearer. La see how the question
stands Ii is perhaps good time TO take a
look at the situation. Some time has elapsed since
Congress adjourned the FIJI eampai gns begin
mng to open briskly. and nothing likely to occur
which will materially alter the prospects of candi-
dates before the elections and the opening of the
regular session IN Washington.
think everyone who in the current of political
opinion that Mr.. TIlden Is much stronger with
his party than he a few months ago, not be-
cause of ANYTHING he has said DONE but from the
operation Of re-pulllng agencies, which be IS an
expert IN managing, and still more from the growth
of a conviction that the logic of the position which
the Democracy has been taking since the Winter of
1877 makes him inevitable. This conviction Will
90 on spreading and growing, and Mr. Tilden,
of course will not omit to stimulate and organize 1t
so as to give it control of the Democratic State and
District Conventions next Spring which will choose
delegates to the National Convention. Unless there
should be a combination at Washington next Win
ter Of all the elements in the party actively or
passIvely opposed to Mr.. Tlden's nomination, an
event which looks wholly impossible. do not be-
eve be will have any competitor before the con-
ventIon. II will be observed that no one of his
rivals is making head against him. No new man
Is brought forward. and the old ones are con-
stantly dropping out Of the falling far in the
rear. People scarcely speak OF Bayard as a candi-
date nowadays. EVERYBODY sees that Ewing has
destroyed Thurman As for Hendricks, be VIII be
lucky Il be gets the second place the ticket All
tail of Joel Parker, General Mcclellan, David Davis
or Justice Field is the laundering about in the
Tlden net of men who know they are caught and
whose struggles are getting feebler day by day.
While the Democratic nomination il. therefore,
so well covered by Mr.. Tllden's mortgage as to be
practically closed to al other aspirants the Repub-
lican nomination Is open field TO all corners, aud
affords wide and interesting range for speculation.
L f..+ fl4f al ne
bars axe down. there seems to be DO disposition to
bring new candidates upon the track. Except the
mention Of Senator WINDOWS name, which, it is
said, wa first suggested by Senator ConkliDg. no
addition has been made to the list of year ago, and
Mr. Window himself would no doubt be surprised if
his friends suggestion 10 be taken up In ear
nest. In fact, the list be said to be shorter by
one name Senator COnklng is scarcely counted
now as a possible nominee. His lack of personal
following outside of New-York seems to make 1t
out of the question that he should be formidable
candidate before the convention. He may shape
the nomination by the great weight OF the New
York delegation, which he VIII 10 doubt WELD. but
he is much too conspicuous a figure to come in as a
dark horse and at the time has not strength Of
his own sufficient to place him beside Blame and
Sherman. am told that this is the view Mr. Conk-
ling himself takes Of the situation.
-Four names are in everybody's mouth-Grant,
Blaine Sherman and WaslDurne. Only two of
these can be said, however, 10 be actually contest
ing the field. Mr.. Washburne must be looked upon
rather as highly available compromise candidate
than as a candidate with much original strength of
his own A. 20 General Grant, 10 has come TO be
pretty well understood that ne VII ther be strong
enough 10 sweep tue board or Will take no hand in
the game he Grant hOOm," sO-called, has spent
its force, but there remains formidable sentiment
among the Republican masses IN favor OF renomI-
mating the eX-President, which Is sustained bv a
considerable number Of efficient party leaders. Cen
eral Grant viii undoubtedly be IN a position next
Spring To 90 into the convention contestant for
the nomination with a fair chance of success, but
all his friends believe that be VIII not let himself
down into the arena OF an ordinary political strug-
GLE and viii nos be a candidate unless spcntaLe-
Gus and imperative demand for ms services should
be madea demand so strong that all the candidates
would have 10 step aside. need hardly say mat
the probability of such manifestation Is not nearly
as great as IL appeared three months The rebel
bugddiers in Congress may start fresh Grant wave
next Winter by again alarming me loyal senu-
ment Of the North. but we may reasonably
look for increased discretion on tneU part, ana
better COncealment OF their purposes as the cleo
ton draws near. The prospect Is, therefore, that
Grants name VIII not 90 before The convention aU
ali. He cannot afford TO 20 INTO scramble Tor the
nomination. If he should only be a candidate IN
stead of the candidate, with large vOte, but not
enough TO nominate him the first ballot he might
be beaten, for the Blaine men and the Sherman
men would be pretty sure to combine against him
Supposng Grant to be out Of the fight, imagine
the South viii be pretty evenly divided between
Blaine and Sherman. with two or three states hold
mg of al first and voting for WashDurne or me
mere complimentary cand date. Blame will prob
ably have Virginia, the two CarOllnas. Alabama and
Arkansas, and Sherman may count on Georgia,
Louisiana, Mississippi and Kentucky. In the
North Mr. Blaine may expect the support Of all the
New-EHglaad States except Massachusetts, and
possibly Connecticut, ana may also depend upon
Peunsyl wanna, Iowa Kansas and the Pacific Coast
States. Massachusetts l. evidently leaning toward
sherman. Ohio VIII Of course BACK HIM up stoutly,
and with her will probably stand Michigan and
Indiana Unless the ia ter State presents General
Harrison as d candidate. The heavy New-l Ork
vote we may expect; will be held aoOf, for time
az least from the close struggle between the friends
of Blaine and sherman, and all politicians will see