The Wichita city eagle. [volume] (Wichita, Kan.) 1872-1883, 1879-12-18
From the Atchison Champion
THE SEASONS AND THE Wealth.
ER
LETTER FROM G.. w. JOHNSON on Ger.
TAIN PROBABILITIES OF THE
ENSUING YEAR.

LETTER RON ~. w. JOtNSON ON Ntfs'
TAIN PROBABILITIES OF THE
ENSUING YEAR.
HIAwATHA, November %, 1879.
The editorial paragraph in the Cham
pion of the l4th, concerning my talk on
the dry period predicted by me, is based
upon Misunderstanding.
lido not abandon that prediction. The
rainfall since August LIST, and especially
since July LIST, is still below the average,
and if we only had average rainfall for
the rest of the year to August l, 1880,
should win. said, in the presence of q
Champion representative, that the rain
fall for November was extraordinary,
and that there was nothing in my wealth
or tables like it. said that, according
to the law of succession apparent in
these tables, next year ought to be dry
year, and also that, according to my old
philosophy, dry year was usually pre-
ccdcd by dry autumn: but that this
''spell' had shaken my faith in the sound
ness of that philosophy.
In September after the long dry spell
had been broken, was annoyed by con-
tinual remarks like the following: "You
said it would not rain for a year :"
"Whcre is your drouth, now" etc.
then published card i'm the Dispatch,
explaining that had never claimed that
a rainless year would succeed August
LIST, and then proceeded to say that if
the fall was wet, especially in October,
that then would give up. that l had
missed my provision as to the anticipat-
ed dry spell.
II is from this doctrine of the incom-
patibility of wet fall with succeeding
dry summer, that wish to recede. l
have more faith in the law upon which
Iprcdict dry season for 1880, until past
midsummer, than have in the law of
rotation between the autumnal rainfall
and the summer to succeed. II these
November rains extended over the
whole basin of the Missouri, then
might feel called upon to abandon my
provision. I understand they do not
extend far to the northwest, nor into
the mountain region at all. These rains
lie on the lower basin of the Missouri,
and on the Arkansas to the southwest
of us, while the great belt TO the west
and northwest is still quite dry. An
open winter will permit this water to
flow out, as readily and nearly as speed
lily as it came, upon the eastern limit of
the dry belt.
I carefully timed my period to take in,
or "straddle," the periods likely to be
the driest and hottest. and the chances
are in my favor for all that has occurred
yet.
As VIC are likely to have one and pos
ssibly two more "wet SPELLS" il is per-
haps well TO warn against them in ad-
vance. March and. May. or February
and April, will probably keep up the
surprises, ty giving us, out Of season,
rains in larger quantities than usual for
those months, distributed as it has been
heretofore, by big rains and six or eight
weeks of drouth. II is the popularity
of the present planitory period to pre-
sent extreme phenomena. Great heat
follows unusually cold weather, great
rains succeed periods Of unusual length
without rain. The system by which
work assumes that the amount of wa
ter evaporated, year by year, is nearly
constant. by il the phenomina of
flood and water arise from inequality
in distribution. This implies that be-
tween the regions where the excess falls
and the region where il is scant their
lies an intermediate region where it is
simply average. These regions are not
separated by sharp boundaries. but
pass into each other insensibly. The
aim of our science should be to To-
cate them approximately, with improv-
ing accuracy.
During the past season the return
trades have had more than the usual
tend to the East. This has dcluged
Western Europe and the nothern part
of our Pacific Slope, while from East
ern shore lands the humid vapors have
been turned of. as a fireman turns away |
his hose-hozzle. Assuming that the |
predictions made i'm Europe, to the eff |
feet that their Atlantic humid winds |
will be turned of next year, arc true,
still do not believe that they will beat
10 the Rockies even the average water
supply in 1880.
The drought which was prevalent to
the southwest during the past summer
should advance to the northward and
eastward, by many analogies. just
where its center will be am not able
to say, but most likely Central and
Western will feel its principal burden.
the southwest escaping mostly.
II would occupy too much space for
me 10 enter into the details Of the plan
etary hypothesis, and point the hypoth-
csis also indicates hot, dry summer
upon the plains in 1880. Twill here only
say that the planetary influences. what
ever they may be, rccur substantially
after 1851 years. This year was no.
mologous with 1919, and 1880 will sum
with 1920. Ii it fails to do so in dis
tinctly appreciable manner. then shall
all reliance in tina; hypothesis,
and also in my older one, which
assumes periodicity of tolerable regu-
larity. recurring after ). Is and 20
years.
The present winter should be largely
like $500, 1910. 1920. In a less de- T.,
gree il should resemble 1910, 1850.
$3.50. These winters were, in the
main. warm winters, though some of
them have from one to three short de-
of temperature. of considera-