The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1879-11-03

with the work OF the Saratoga Conventions that the
Kelly movement will draw of at least twenty per
cent of the democratic Of the State and that
large number of anti-Tden democrats will quietly
support Mr.. Cornell in order dispose of MIR.
Tldens attempt to obtain the democratic nomination
President next year. They correcti supposng
that the opposition which at one time Threatened
Mr.. Cornell has been killed by the consideration
that the result of This years election VIII nave an
important bearing on next years PRESIDENTIAL
battle. The action of tho democrats III Congress
last session has lad the effect OF revivipg republic
can sentiment throughout the State and Mr
Conkng knew well what he was doing when he
sounded the note of alarm at Saratoga and
reminded his party that the democrats only needed
the State of New York in 1880 to secure their return
to power in the general government and to place the
life the nation in the hands of the Confederate
brgadiers who already rule their party i'll the United
correspondent from close investigation in the coun-
ties OF Erie. Niagara. Orleans, Genesee Wyoming,
Livingston. Monroe. Wayne. Ontario. Yates. Seneca
Herkimer, Fulton, Hamilton Montgomery, Schenec-
lady. Albasy: Saratoga. Rensselaer,, Columbia.
republicans supposed to be antagonistic to Mr..
Conkling's leadership and dissatisfied with
Mr.. corne'ls, nomination. are resolved to
the republican candidate for Governor. not only in
good faith. but with determination to do all in
their power to secure his At the same time
it was also clearly to be seen that there will be
falling of from Mr.. Cornell in spots throughout
1ns state posh o the nn. OF n sSme repaD
picayune policy OF scratching on the part OF
others. Judging from the counties visited the loss
to the ticket from these sources will exceed from
eight to ten thousand i'll the entire State. This
will be partially made up by democrats who win
fuse to vote who will quietly for Mr. Cornell
in order TO rid the democracy of what they regard
the fatal evil of Tidenism next year. Taking the
hgures OF 1876 II the contest between Morgan and
Robinson, basis of calculation. it seems proba-
BILE that the majority secured for Morgan that year
of 700 in the whole state exclusive of the city of
New York will be increased this year to plurality
of As, 900 for Cornell Robinson, leaving the
vote Of the city to either lessen increase this
Inquire, as the case NAV be.
THE ANrI.coNKLINa HoTBEDs.
The anti-Conkling hotbeds III the State the
counties OF Onondaga and Oneida. In the former
lead Of Congressman Frank Hiscock. taking their
cue from the course OF President Hayes and
recognized Conkling republicans in the votes
they will give Mr.. Cornell. In Oneida, the
same element, under the lead of Ellis H. Roberts. is
faithfully supporting Mr.. Cornell and urging its
friends to leave evidence in the county after the
close of the eectian of disloyalty to the republic
can candidate in this important struggle. This is
true OF all the recognized anti-Conkling force in
the counties named above, while the HERALD's
sn Of Mr shows tSo
the same state Of feeling existsun Chantauqua and
st. Lawrence counties. With these broad and COM
prehensive adhesons to Mr.. Cornell in the anti
Conking ranks 1t Is simply absurd to count on any
extensive falling off from the republican vote from
confined to individual prejCdices. notions and dis
likes. and these in general election do not amount
much except IN case or very close vote.
THE ROBINSON DEMOCRATIC HOPES
Tho claims OF the Robinson democrats have been
so bold and apparently SO extravaganza that many
persons have been disposed to expect some sudden
and remarkable coup on the part OF Mr. Tilden. ON
the of the election, which would upset all
theories aud entirely change the aspect of affairs in
the State. The st. James Hotel Committee have as
sured their friends in New York that their candidate
for Governor is certain of the votes OF very large
tricts, and Notwithstanding the Kelly movement,
which they have all along pronounced insignificant,
with Mr. Cornell and probably with a small plural
ity. At the same time the several Robinson county
committees throughout the State have been fed
the expectation OF an entire collapse of Tanmany
in the city aud vote of not more than
Ave ten thousand for Mr.. Kelly, of about forty
i've thousand for Mr.. Cornell and conseq ucnt pll-
ralty of about fifty thousand for Governor Robinson
Exactly how these results to be brought about
has not been SO Gear. The general impression has
been that the liberal use OF money supplied in un-
limited quantities by Mr.. Tilden to destroy
the. Kelly organization, win over the "foat-
Governor II ,binsons stream. The republican sup
port OF Governor Robinson was supposed to come
rural districts. who to vote for Governor Rob-
inson by the thousand on the consideration that he
IL more honest than any Governor of their own
party faith can be, and that return to republican
rule return to plumber. corruption and heavy
taxation In the counties named there is lndica-
ton whatever of any loss OF faith in their party
among republican farmers and while here and there
republican may be found who expresses the nten-
ton to vote for the democratic candidate, the re-
publcans in the rural districts, rule retain all
their old prejudices against the democracy, declare
their conviction that Mr.. Cornell will be quite
honest Governor Robinson. and SGT their faces
resoluely against any act that aid to hand
tho national government to the solid South by the
help Of the vote of New York.
There is indication whatever of any general
movement OF republicans toward Governor Robin
son. either in the cities or towns Of Central and
Northern New York. II money should be used by
the Tilden party it would not make any material
difference in the Kelly vote. But it is not likely
that there is any foundation for the stories that
the s. o DO flooded with n n Mt tha
ballot box either by Mr.. Tiden anybody else The
explanation Of the bold front put on by the Robin
party in New York in the face of almost certain
defeat probably to be found in the anxiety
party to keep down rs much possible Mr.. John
kellys vote and to prevent the OF the Tam
many county ticket in the city of New York It is
scarcely credible that any intelligent Robinson DEM
ocrat expects the Governors success; but it makes
great difference to the anti-Tammany democrats
whether Mr. John Kelly obtains 80 900 votes in the
State and carries the city of New York. out
of the election with $4,000 10000 aud de-
feated county ticket. II they by any means
keep down his strength by depressing the hopes of
the Tammanv democracy in New York the purpose
Of their game Of bluff is accomplished In the
counties visited by the HERALD CORES pondent tho
Kelly movement does not appear likely to lose any
strength as the day of election draws near and it
is not q vote that could be purchased. There is.
besides. dangerous element in the Robinson party
which has not been sufficiently taken into account
in estimating the result the State Separate and
apart from the Kelly movement there many
democrats supposed to be Robinson men who will
vote and work against him at the polls and whose
influence will be used to secure for Cornell the votes
of all anti-Robinson democrats 80 to count two
ballots against Robinson in each instead of one
HOW THE PROBABILITIES LOOK.
Calculations made before election
sarily In a great measure guesswork. There Is
nothing. for instance. except such indications
may DO seen In some cities and towns. to guide ono
in estimating Mr. Kely's strength in the state.
From the appearances in the counties already al
luded to 1t seems safe to set It down at 10000
elusive OF the city OF New York. But a in
telligent conclusion may be reached as to tho
strength Of the regular democratic ticket because
there are the figures OF former years for guide The
vote Of the State has stood thus since 1874 -
In 1874 democratic majority for Tilden.. 5O,317
In 1875 democratic majority for Robinson,
COMPTROLLER ...................... 50, 900
In 1876 democratic majority tor Robinson,
Governor. 3O,4Go
In 1877 democratic majority for Beach, Score
tary OF state: II, 26l
In 1878 republican majority for Danforth,
Court OF Appeals. Observation-Disclosures. G61
1t will thus be seen that the democratic majority
since 1874 has gradually lessened until in 1873 IL was
reversed and the state went republican. In 1874 tho
tidal wave which gave Massachusetts n democratic
Governor and sent an army OF republican Congress-
men into retirement. secured for Mr.. Tilden his