The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1879-12-19
CORRECTED CORRECTION vINDI-
GATED.

To THE EDITOR OF THE HERALD:-
Your correction of mine SEEMS ar first view.
overwhelming. You had stated that Professor Smyth,
Astronomer Royal for Scotland. predicted cold
winter 1S7S-79. to which had objected that his
actual prediction related to the winter of 1S777S.
and now you able to quote the Professors
isissima verba in 1872. 1--WE may perhaps be justified
in concluding that the minimum temperature of the
present cold wave was reached in 1s71.1. and that
the next similar cold will occur in 1878 g.
that is you say in October. 1878. In the face Of
this evidence it might hopeless to reiterate my
statement. and still hopeless to undertake to
show that the evidence you quote confirms the gen.
eral objections have raiseds against the method
adopted by the advocates OF the spot sys-
tenn Of weather prediction. But it is. in fact simply
because their method is so unsatisfactory that you
have been, very naturally misled. Although the
prediction you quote in reality a correction
earlier prediction. the opening words Of the
passage partly indicate-(' Depending. therefore.
chiefly later observed eleven-year periods. -
&c.)-you would hardly have imagined that only
five years later the temperatures in the interval
having unkindly refused to behave as Professor
Smyth's anteipations had led him to expect) the
prediction was again modified. Late in 1877. near
enough in all conscience to the predicted cold
to make prediction safe If the spot method
indeed trustworthy. the forecast assumed the fol-
lowing (see Mature for October L. 1877 p. 475)-
Having recently computed the remaining observa-
tons OF our earth thermometers here and prepared
new projection OF all the observations from their
beginning in 1887 to their calamitous close last year,
results generally confrmatory of those arrived ut in
1870 have been obtained. but with moro pointed and
immediate bearing on the weather now before us.
The chief features undoubtedly deducible for the
past thirty yeas after eliminating the more
/. Between 1887 and 1876 three great heat waves,
from without struck this part OF the earth-viz the
To- ~ A tl,os l.s
1867. unless some very complete alteration in
the weather is to take place the next such visitation
may be looked for in 1915. within limits OF half
year each way.
.. The next feature In magnitude and certainty is
that the periods of minimum temperature or cold
not either In or anywhere near, the middle time
between the crests OF those three chronoogically
identified heat waves. but are comparatively close up
to them on either side ut distance OF about year
and half. that the next such cold Is duo ut
the end OF the present year.
This Ia perhaps not All agreeable prospect espe-
among the collers, striving to persuade them to de-
crease the output OF coal at every pits mouth Be-
ing therefore quite willing. for tho general good. to
suppose myself mistaken beg to send you first
impression OF plate No. II OF the forthcoming vol.
ums of observations Of this Royal Observatory. and
shall DO very happy IL you can bring out from the
measures recorded thero any more comfortable view
for the public at largo. PIAZZI SMllIr
Astronomer Royal for Scotland.
ROYAL. OBSERVATORY. EplSBURoH. Sept 2T.
1t will DO observed that there are here two very
definite predictions-viz., frst. that tho winter of
1S77S In Great Britain would be exceptionally cold:
second, that 1925 CHAT is the middle OF tho year
1870 would be, within half year either way. tho
time whom the hoat would be felt. How far
these predictions from fulalment will DO seen
when we note that the winter Of 1s77-7y in Great
Britain exceptionally warm and that In the mid
die Of 1879 Great Britain was passing through the
colder part of that great cold which began to
DO felt In November. 1878. and IL still In progress
SO cold was the Of 1879 that when left
England on October IL. the harvest was not yet
altogether gathered in.
must point out that on the general question of
sun spot influences have said nothing which does
not accord with the passage quoted In your editorial
from tho annual Science Record fully believe that
echo solar spots aud temperatures change in
parallel cycles and affect every fcAturc In terrestrial
moteorslogy." What deny is that tho weather OF
particular regions las regards even its broadcast
features. such average temperature rainfall and
so FORTH, can be connected with solar spot cycles
What has hitherto been done has been to examine
the records OF great number of regions for num-
Der of weather phenomcna. to leave unnoticed all
the cases they hundreds) in which no cyclic
change corresponding with the sun spot cycle can be
recognized imagined. and carefully to collect
those cases lthcy may DO counted perhaps by tens)
where some such cyclic change seems to DO recog-
nzabc. These. separated in this way from the dis
cordant cases. to present very strong evidence
In favor Of the sun spot theory OF weather. and they