Daily globe. [volume] (St. Paul, Minn.) 1878-1884, 1879-06-30

1919. .5l,J l4o
All figures in regard to the area of wheat
planted each gear in the United States are
open to very free criticism. The only Off
cial estimates of the department of
agriculture at Washington-seem to be
based upon nothing but unofficial guesses,
and are SO tardy in their appearance that
they seem to be only desperate dashes to
strike an average of the popular opinion.
Even the census of 1870, while it furnished
the estimate of the total crop of wheat, gave
nothing in regard to the area upon which
the crop Of 287, 745,000 bushels of wheat for
that year was raised.
THE ONLY FIGURES
which have the semblancea of anything ap-
preaching information Oil tie subject of the
total area of wheat planted are the estimates
of the increase of area planted in wheat each
year as given in the monthly crop report of
the department. of agriculture. These, it is
true. are only guesses, but it is probable they
are not over ten per cent. out of the way
from the truth, and, as the amount of in
crease each year is small as compared with
the whole area planted in wheat, the discre-
pencies might not be SO very great if it was
only known that the original total of acres
(say in 1870 to which these yearly additions
have been made was correct. For instance,
it is tolerably certain that the increase in the
area of wheat sown in 1878 over 1877 was
between 100000 and 100000 acres. and
further, that there has been no year since
1870 in which there has not been an in
crease in the acreage, unless it be the year
1877, which, according to tho agricultural
department. reports, showed decrease of
1,423, 900 acres from the area of 1876. This
reported decrease of area in 1877 was not
sustained by general belief, nor by anything
else very definite. Nevertheless, as we have
no other official data it must be accepted as
the only foundation upon which the estimate
for the expectation of the crop of 1879 can
be based
The bulletin of the agricultural depart
ment for June, 1879, indicated that there
was an increase this year of about 4 per cent
in tho total area of Wheat planted. Four
per cent on the 30,693, 407 acres planted in
1873, would give an increase of 1,227.7se
acres or a total of say 81, 1921, 143 acres plant.
as compared with last year seems reasonable,
from the fact that the low price of wheat
has discouraged its prodution in the older
states where the yield per acre is small COM
pared to the crops on the virgin soil of the
far northwestern Territories and States. Rail
way competition, with its result of cheap
freight for long distances, is having the ef-
feet to push the territory of greatest wheat
production further and further west.
THE YIELD ACRE
of wheat in the whole United States in 1875
was an average of say IL $1,000 bushels, Of
nearly 81 per cent above the average yielt
of the six previous years. Had it not beer
for the blight in July of last year to tbs
spring wheat crops of Minnesota, Iowa ant
Wisconsin, which probably diminished thu
total crop by 100000 bushels, the tota
average yield would have beer about l.
bushels per acre, or about Is per cent. abov
the average yield per acre of the six previou
years. In fact the yield of winter wheat wa
currently estimated to be about Is per cent
, above average crop, and this presumption
was sustained by the enormous quantity o
winter wheat which came to market. III
condition of the growing wheat which pro
duced the above results, was reported in th
bulletin of the agricultural department TO
June 1, 1878, at 1Ol for the whole white
. wheat region, and as late as July 1, 1898,
: was reported by the bulletin of the depart
ment as high as 100 for the spring whes
= region.
+, THE EXPECTATION
, for 1879 as compared with 1878 may be est
n mated from the fact that the bulletin of tt
agriculture. department. for June 1, 1879, il
8 dicates the average condition Of the GROWN
wheat crop throughout the United States t
: the figures 90.
}. This indicates condition of the GROWN
; crop at, say, Is per cent. lower or more III
favorable than last year. AS the exPectatio
: last year at this time was, say, 455, 900, O(
T. bushels this was before the damage to Il
spring wheat in July, it would show that o.
D expectation now, from the same number
q, acres. would be 78,25O,OO0 bushels less, or
total crop of, say, 376, 75O, 900 bushels, and
% we add II bushels per acre for the increase
+ area of, say, 122. 1928 acres, sag 100000
% bushels, we have 800, 100000 bushels as Il
70 utmost expectation for the crop of 1879.
. This, compared with the 425 200, 900 rails
in 1873, leaves deficiency of, say, 81 $500
1t bushels, and as the decrease must all come
7e the surplus available for export, it won
g. leave, at the utmost, only about 1l6, 10000
e. bushels for export in the year to July l, 18s
~ instead of the 15O,O0O,000 which has be-
exported in the year to July 1, 1879.
a. But even this expectation is based up
40 the presumption that nothing will happen
~ the spring wheat in July this year as the
re did last. It was after this time in t
as summer that the spring wheat was damag
e. last year, and, as the crops of both wln1
n and spring wheat are more backward Il
year, it is fair presumption that bligl
ne rust, drouth, grasshoppers, chinca-bugs
d. some of the other numerous evils to viii
q wheat is liable will reduce the above expec
lis ton at least 100000 bushels. Inde'
de the ravages of grasshoppers in the extre
We northwestern corner of Iowa and in the {
70 iacent parts of Dakota and Nebraska Sill
ire the June report of the agricultural depa
w ment has already diminished the expectati
n on the whole crop of spring wheat.
ed A reasonable forecast of the crop Of Is
We would show that in consequence Of
drouth which prevailed over the entire VIII
raising sections of the United States IF
about the 1st of March until about the 2
of May, and also of the subsequent dam
as- by grasshoppers and other insects, the az
in age Weld of wheat IN the United States
ted year will not be above III bushels per a,
on or say, at most, $50 OOO, 900 bushels, agai
18th 425, 100000 in 1878.
i've TIE ExPoRTABLE SURPLUS
O., out of the crop Of 1879 will therefore pre-
e q bly, be at least 45,ooO,oo0 bushels less t
nd that of the crop of 1873. The end Of
aly fiscal year, July 1, 1879, will SLOW that
ex have exported to foreign countries in its
st. rious forms of grain, -four and bread,
as about 15O.OOO,00O bushels of wheat.
fall stock of wheat now remaining in sigh
nks the United States is somewhat larger thai
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