Memphis daily appeal. [volume] (Memphis, Tenn.) 1847-1886, 1879-04-19
ADVICE
To Spectators I'm Futures-some Rea-
sons Why they should not Bank
Against the Prospective Crop
An Array OF Facts and
Figures They Will do
Well to study.

EDITORS Acknowledgements derived
from irlous sources leads us to the conclu-
sion that widespread inclination prevails
among our cotton-olanting friends in the
Memphis district to sell future contracts in
New York against their prospective crop for
this year. While we do not object to this
method of disposing of at least portion of
the crop, we regard it as extra-hazardous to
do so without first carefully and deliberately
surveying the situation. The recent advance
In the staple has been so marked, and con-
trasts so strongly with the extremely low
prices of last winter, that we are disposed to
regard present rates as very high, when in
reality they are l2<c below the average for
the last five years, and &c below the average
of the five years Immediately preceding the
war. Carefully prepared statistics exhibit
the following facts: That during the five
years beginning with 1856, and ending with
1850, the American crop aggregated 19,07S,-
600 bales, of which IA, 764, 600 bales were
exported to foreign countries, leaving 4, 162, :
900 bales for home use. The average price
for this period was 1880 for middllng up
lands in New York, and 7.25d in Liverpool.
For the five years beginning with 1873, and
closing with 1877, the crop aggregated
q, 1926, 900 bales. Exports for same time,
Is, 900, thus showing that 6, $50, 900 bales
were consumed at home, and that the average
price during these years was 1850 for mid
ding uplands in New York and 7.04d in Liv-
erpool. While these figures indicate plainly
that present prices for cotton are not excess
sive, they also develop one other very graft
flying fact: that during the latter five years
our home consumption of raw cotton has in
creased 2,568, 600 bales, or $4,000 bales per
annum over the former period of five years.
At this date, in 1877, middling cotton was
worth in New York ii 14c; it advanced al
most steadily until it reached 1850 on July
9th, and this with visible supply of 75S, 900
bales more than at present. At this date
last year, 1873, cotton was selling at 1920 II
New York; it improved in price until il
reached 1910 on the thirtieth of August
The world visible supply at this date, one
year ago, was 430, 600 bales more than al
present, and Liverpool circular writers wert
predicting cotton famine. That the crop il
this country will prove to be the largest ever
before produced, NO one doubts; but In other
cotton growing countries the result, SO far
for this season has been very disappointing tC
spinners. Drouth and famine have reduced
the India crop to less than one-half what il
was a few years ago. Egypt and Brazil are
both largely behind in exports, while their
affairs at home do not give promise of any
material increase as the season advances
With these facts and figures before US, we
would not like to sell contracts for fall anC
winter months at IL to III cents delivered
in New York to cover crop not yet planted
and that an overflow, emigration o.
hands, or late frosts might destroy
or dsmsge greatly. If, however, nonC
of those things happen and plant
ers should put out large lines of contracts
this early In the season, speculation might
get control of the market and run prices uI
80 high that margins would be squeezed out
and the planter left with his cotton unsold
and his money gone. Or any serious disaster
to the crop would produce the same result,
only prices would, in that event, be sustained
and, In all probability, rule higher than fol
three years past, unless other countries con.
tributed more to the worlds supply
than they are doing this year. We are free
to confess that If we were cotton
producers, and the crop was promising
in June or July, when we could fee
positive assurance that we would
make crop, and prices were satisfactory, il
would be legitimate and proper to sell against
one. half or tw5-thirds of what could be rea-
Eonably expected to be gathered, rather thar
take the chances on a rush of receipts break
ing the market at a time when deliveries
would necessarily be very large; indeed, il
one-half the entire crop was judiciously
placed IN this way, it would facilitate bust
ness materially and be great protection
against the manipulations OF SPECTATORS
But, under no circumstances, should any one
be tempted to sell crop until they have it
The fact is, with an abundance of money, nc
war of any Importance anywhere, cheap food
the world over, and improving trade, we must
expect higher range of prices for cotton in
the future than for the last few years of un-
heard of depression. JR GOODWIN.
MEMPHIS, TENN, April 10, 1873.