New-York tribune., 1879-03-17

upon the low price OF "1eat III VIE
country as the most conclusive prooi
that in the judgment Of those best INFORMED
the supply in this country will far outruh
the demand. Believing this, the foreign pur-
chaser looks for relatively lower prices here
after, and defers his purchases as long 30
possible. He prefers to have the oil''eu
States bear the expense OF carrying "noa'
rather than to bear it himself. Hence BRUSH
imports of wheat from this country nave Deeh
less by $500, 900 bushels during the crop year
thus far than they were during the year pre-
ceding. On the other hand, exports 10 rance
and other Continental countries have Deeh
%. SOC. 600 bushels greater than they were
to the same date last year
II is an important question, both to dcaien
and to purchasers in this country ana 10
oonsumcrs abroad. whether this estimate OF
the future price of wheat is warranted Ivy the
facts. Certainly the crops not only III Great
Britain Int in France, have been so scanty as
70 require a largely increased importation.
Very well-informed writers and dealers
on the other side of the ocean pe-
reve that the requirements of France alone
will exceed 90, O0O, 900 bushels. The deficiency
of importations from this country by Great
Britain thus far plainly indicates that an III
creased demand from that country must SOONER
or later be felt. On account OF the plaque
traffic with the ports of the Black sea mas
been and Is likely to be very much restricted.
Novements of wheat from Southern Kussla,
and frou the rppipns of the lower Danube,
can hardly be relied upon to meet tHe eAISIihE
deficiency in Great Britain. The truth Is that
the British market is relying upon pracu-
cally unlimited supply in this country, ana
sbould it prove that the demand comes close
70 or exceeds the actual supply, our prices
may lise somewhat sharply within the next
two months.
In respect to the probable relation OF the
SIMPLY to the demand estimates vary widely,
AS usual By some it is thought that the
ouantitv remainung i'll the county Tor export
will reach 37,OOO,0 900 bushels, but 1t Is con-
cedcd that so much can be exported only
upon two conditions, viz: that the supply III
store shall be reduced by the end OF the sea-
son, as it was at the close OF the last season,
to about 100000 bushels, and that the
amount taken for seed and for future con-
sunption in this country shall not be greater
than it was last year. The stock III store was
unusually reduced at the close OF last season.
Only the prospect of a very large crop for the
coming season would lead farmers to part
with aS Iarae a proportion of their supply, at the
low rates now ruling. rs they sold last Spring
in cxpcc,ation of an unprecedented crop. lin
Jauuary. the statistcian of the Produce EX-
change estimated that Il surplus Ol 1JO,OUO,-
600 bushels would remain for export from
the crop of 1878, of which Sl.O33, ,4S2 BUSH
els had then enexported. From January to
March 8 the exports from Atlantic ports have
been 1C,s35,97S bushels, including flour
rs wheat and the exports from New-OIleans
and the Pacific ports have been a little less
than 1000, zoo bushels. According to the cs-
innate of the Exchange, therefore, there would
remain for export only about 26,13O.54O
bushels. But the quantity exported from
March I TO September /. ISIS, was about
4O, 600 OOO bushels, of which Great Britain
alone took about 25,OO0,000, and the supply
in that country Is much farther behind the
quantity required than it was at this time
last year.
In respect to the quantity likelyto be required
for consumption, il must be remembered that
very low prices here always tend 10 increase
CONSUMPTION Of wheat instead OF corn, but the
quantity to be required for seed will certainly
increase from year to year, III consequence of
tEe r9Did settlement of new lands at the West.
Official statistics prove that this movement
las been exceedingly large during the past
eighteen months, and many thousand acres
will undoubtedly be put into wheat for the first
time this year. Whether the farmers i'll the
older States will diminish the acreage sOWn for
wheat in a corresponding ratio may be doubted,
in view of the prospect of very low and steady
rates for Transportation to the scabOard. 1t is
asserted, moreover. that scientific inyestiga
ton has shown that considerable proportion
of the wheat in store, though useful for
milling purposes, is practically useless for
seed The theory is that the extreme
hot weather which prevailed during the
few weeks at the close of the season last
year caused such a change in the character
of large proportion OF the wheat grown
that. though grading No. . in quality 1t lacks
the proper genelative power. Later accounts
from the West, however. affirm that the pro-
portion of the grain which has failed to sprout
is not more than five per cent, and unless the
defect should prove to be much more serious,
! it Will not materially affect the quantity needed
| for Spring sowing or the next yield.
Probably the purchasers and holders of
wheat in this country are justified in demand
ing higher prices for that portion of the crop
which foreign countries have yet to purchase.
| Such reports as have been received from the
! West do not, as yet. give very favorable pros
poets in regard to the next crop, nor is there
reason to expect that the steadily increasing
deficiency of wheat supply in Great Britain
will by any means be especially reduced next
year. True, it Is fair to presume that the
foreign demand will be considerably less than
it has been in 1877 and 1873, if the next crop
| in France and other European countries should