, 1879-03-23

CYCLES IN TRADE.
The TRIBUNE recently published an article
embodying expressions of alarm in Germany
ut the continued growth of Americas foreign
trade and the enormous disproportion be.
tween the imports and exports Of this coun.
try. Similar apprehensions in regard to the
American balance of trade have been OF.
pressed in England and France, and there
seems to be general incapacity to discover
the probable outcome and effect of this un.
paralleled disturbance of what is known as
the "bnlance Of trade" So long as there
promises to be an excess of several hundred
millions year of American exports over
American imports the trade between Europe
and the United States is certainly serious
puzzle, which not merely seems to defy solu-
ton, but threatens to strike the European
nations succession Of hard blows that may
be fatal.
The reason why the problem has not ex-
cited more interest and discussion in
European circles before the last few
months is to be found in the fact that
the countries that have suffered most
from the new order of things-England
and Germany-were the holders of
vast amounts Of American National, State,
municipal, and railroad bonds which they
were able to send back to Us. These obliea-
tions discharged the excesses of American
exports, and SO they escaped the startling
sense of the change that is now forcing itself
upon them. But the English and the Ger
! mans now realize that this easy way Of pay
ing for their American imports is well-nigh
| exhausted, while the balances Of trade against
them continues to be Us heavy as ever It
will be but short time before the American
people will have thus redeemed all the out
standing evidences Of debt held in Europe
which are valid aud col1ectable, as they have
already taken up more of the Federal securi-
ties than the foreign holders we're willing to
part with.
Is there any Immediate prospect, then, of
a notable variation in the balance Of trade?
Is it likely that the United States will soon
begin to export less OF import more and thus
equalize the conditions Of trade? There cer-
tainly seems to be no indication Of such
change. The staples which Europe takes
from America are of character which
Europe must have, or, where an actual neces-
sity does not exist, which they desire above !
everything else. Our braadstuGs, meats, |
cotton, petrolen, tobacco, alcohol, leather,
butter, cheese, e!c.,-al these and other |
products Of American soil and mines can be
furnished Europe, SO far rs they are pro-
duced in excess Of home demand, at more
favorable prices than Europe can procure
them anywhere else on the face Of the globe
So there seems to be no danger of any de-
cline in exports so long as Europe has the
means to buy. On the other hand, the
prospect is just as small Of any necessary
increase in American imports. There are
but few articles which the people of the
United States are forced to purchase abroad
in any great quantity. The manufactures
now purchased are chiefly French goods, as
laces, silks, satins, gloves, cosmetics, jewel
ry, plate-glass, wines. Besides these
tin, ten and coffee, sugar and molasses,
tropical fruits, drugs and dye~stuffs, india
rubber crude, and few other raw materials,
almost complete the list. In large lines Of
commodities, which the United States have
been in the habit OF buying abroad, there is
q continual reduction of importation. It is
probable, for instance, that the manu.
facture Of sugar from corn and sorghum
will soon be developed in this country,
as the manufacture Of sugar from the
beet-root was in France, so as to enable an |
enormous saving of foreign purchase in this
single article. In manufacture of various
kinds we have Of late years not merely sup
piled the home demand, but produced an ex-
cess at cost which has enabled us to COM
pete with England and Germany in foreign
markets. The tariff is so high that it is pro-
aibitory on most articles Of foreign produc- {
ion. 8
France alone has been able to hold her t
own in the American market, because her
people have an art Of making certain articles !,
# fashion and luxury with which similar =
products Of this and other countries do not
compare; but even in the French specalties t
If wines, silks, 1aces, gloves, jewelry, cos c
netics, toilette articles, and feminine orna- t
neuts, the American manufactures are be- 4
ginning to be rivals so far as tile I
'ome market goes. The American methods
n all branches of industry are constantly n
improving, and the Paris Exhibition forced n
rom all Europe an acknowledgment OF the
uperiority Of American mechanical and in
entive genius The tendency, therefore, i
GEMS to be toward that condition in which a
america will seek to import only those things IL
Phich absolutely cannot be produced or Q
in this country.
But now that the Americans have practi-
ally ceased to export gold; now that the s.
,merioan indebtedness has been SO largely il
allied in, SO far Us foreign creditors ara con- S,
erned; and now that England, Germany, e.
nd other European nations must begin to tt
ay coin for their excess Of purchases, what II II
to be the result? Europe cannot well re- =. -
uce its purchases Of American staples be- ;,
NJ certain point, aud America shows no t.