The Redwood gazette. [volume] (Redwood Falls, Minn.) 1873-1940, 1879-02-06
Sun Spots and Commercial Crises.

To THE numerous explanations that
have hitherto been given by various
writer's on commercial topics, to &C
count for the present depressed state
of trade, there has recently Deen added
another-this time from the pen of
Prof. w. Stanley Jevons, who, in late
number of Nature, treats the matter
at some length from scientific stand
point.
The fact has long attracted atten-
ton that commercial crises, like the
one through which we are passing,
are marked by certain periodicity in
their occurrence, and they have been
associated, not unreasonably, to GER
tain extent with a deficiency of crops,
and such deficiencies again have in re-
cent years been supposed to be in some
way connected with "the sun-spot
period"
Prof. Jevons, in his present paper,
endeavors to establish a direct relation
ucUween inc latter periods and times OF
trade depression; and, although his
studies have not as yet allowed him to
fix the exact nature of the connection,
the data that he furnishes exhibit at
least some curious condolences. After
some preliminary accounts of what has
been done in this field of research,
both by himself and others, in former
years, Prof. Jevons says: ut is impos-
sible in this place to state properly
the facts which I possess; I can only
briefly mention what I hope to estab-
lish by future more thorough inquiry.
b. Deferring, however, for the
present, any minuter inquiry, I permit
myself to assume that there were, about
the years 1742 and 1852, fluctuations
of trade which connect the undoubted
decennial series of I'LL, 1921 and 1892
with that commencing again in the
most unquestionable manner in 1868.
Thus the whole series of decennial
crises may be stated as follows: 17O1
(?), I'LL, 1921, 1882, 1742 (P), 1852
(p), 1868, 1772-3, 1888, 1898, 18O4-5
(?), 1915, 1925, 1869 (1837 in the
United States), 1847, 1857, 1866, 1873.
A series of this sort is not, like
chain, as weak as its weakest part; on
the contrary, the strong parts add
strength to the weak parts. In spite,
therefore, of the doubtful existence of
some of the crises, as marked in the
list, can entertain no doubt whatever
that the principal commercial crises do
fall into series having an average Pc
Rod of about 1O.446 years. Moreover,
the almost perfect coincidence of this
period with Mr.. j. A. Broun's estimate
of the sun-spot periodicals years
is by itself strong evidence that the phe-
nomena are casually connected"
Hyde, Clarke, Wilson and Danson
all argued, thirty or forty years ago,
that commercial fluctuations must be
governed by physical causes; but the
difficulty that has beset the theory is
that, hitherto, no one has been able to
detect clear periodic variation in the
price of corn. Sir William Herschel
endeavored to do this at the beginning
of the present century, in his inquiry
as to the economic effects of the sun
spots; but his facts are too meager to
justify any certain inference. Prof.
Jevons confesses that as yet his own in
quiries have been equally without re-
suit on this point. The fact is" he
SAYS, II believe that cereal crops, as
grown and gathered in Europe, depend
for their success upon very complicated
conditions, so that the solar influence
is disguised. But it does not follow
that other crops, in other ATTITUDES,
may not manifest the decennial period.
DR.. Schuster has already pointed out.
in Nature, coincidence between good
vintages and minima of sun-spots,
which can hardly be due to accident.
Now, if we may assume DIR. Hunters
famine theory TO be true, there is little
difficulty in explaining the remarkable
series of periodic crises which / have
pointed OUT The author goes on to
show that the trade of Western Europe
has always been strongly affected by
with the Indies, several
crises being distinctly traceable to this
cause; thus the crisis of 1873 is clearly
with the recent famines in
India and China, and these famines are
attributed to solar influence.
He states, then, that it is his present
belief that to trade with India, China,
and other parts of the tropical and
regions, must be attribu-
ted the principal fluctuations OF Eu-
ropean commerce, although the decen-
NAL fluctuations ought not to be who'll
" laid to the account of the Indian |
trade, it being quite possible that trop-
ical Africa, America, the West Indies,
and even the Levant. are affected by the |
same meteorological influences which
occasion the famines in India. Thus |
Il is the Nations which trade most
largely with those parts Of the world,
and which give long credits TO their
which Su6er most from
these crises. PROT. Jsvous sess nothing |