The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1879-10-04
The state Campaisn-A Chart Of the
Seat of War.


resort are aptt to get confused and bewildered
to which they listen. We propose to
assist them in gaining clearer notions
of tho situation by mapping out the
ground on which the battle is to
be fought and furnishing a detail OF
the respective strength of the opposing
forces. Everything is plain enough within
certain limits. The great body OF both po-
litical organizations will stand by their
colors Neither side will ''hop over
ca masse into the camp OF its opponents
There is, to be sure, floating contingent
Of unattached voters who are ready to
surge to what they deem the stronger
side: but tho great body of each party
will vote the regular ticket. The
statistics of former recent elections are.
therefore, the surest basis for an intelligent
Judgment. Tho floating vote is, indeed,
an incalculable quantity, but, due allow
ance being made for this uncertain and
capricious element. it is not difficult to
compute the relative strength of parties.
But we must not base our calculations on
the election returns Of what are called ''off
ycars"-the intermediate years between
those strenuous political contests which
call out full vote of both parties The
political result of an "off year" proves
nothing; II is only tho exciting years in
which a full vote is called out on
both sides that furnish test of the real
strength of parties. We must, there
fore. in this State. go back to the election
Of 1876 10 find a measure Of what each party
can do when it puts forth all its vigor. Of
course the election of 1876 is an imperfect
measure Of the present strength of the two
parties in the State Of New York;
but IL is the best measure we
have, and due allowance being made for
change Of circumstances it is pretty good
foundation for a judgment. though judg-
ment In the rough. 1t il the best guide we
have. and in following it VIC shall make
nearer approximation to the truth than by
giving any heed to tho wild boasts and
vague guesses of heated partisans.
II Is safe to assume that a very full vote
will be called out this year in the New York
election. II will hardly fall below the vote
in 1876. for although that was Presiden-
,ial year the approaching State election
has so close bearing on the hopes OF
candidates and the chances of ma
tional success that the stay-at-home
vote will be small. Senator Conkling
has the strongest motives for vindicating his
selection Of gubernatorial candidate Mr..
Tilden has the st rongest motives for max
ing the vote for Robinson as large ms
possible Mr.. John Kelly has the strongest
motives for depioying all his strength and
showing how formidable factor he is in
the politics Of the State. The split
aud row in the democratic party will
infiame tho zeal of both democratic
factiors and tend TO bring out their
full strength. while the importance Of
New York in the Presidential contest of
next year will aid Mr.. Conkling in rallying
the republicans OF the State to the support
of their ticket. The aggregate vote Of the
State will probably come mp TO the vote of
the last Presidential year, inasmuch ms
the growth OF population will make up for
tho slight difference OF political interest
between a Presidential year and year in
which the result in New York will proba-
bly, decide the next Presidential contest,
or at least determine whether Mr.. Tilden
will be the democratic candidate.
Assuming then. that the result Of the
New York election in 1876 fairly repre-
scnts the relative strength of the two great
parties in this State in any election which
has interest enough to bring out a
full vote. we have reasonable grounds
Cor political estimate. Such ON
estimate, resting on authentic election
statistics. makes 1t extremely improbable
1t is sale to assume that the Robinson vote
in 1879 will not exceed tho Tilden vote In
1876; and unless il should exceed ia Cow
ernor Robinson il ioredoomed TO defeat.
Let us inspect the figures. In 1876. taking
the whole State. the result WAS ~ fol-
lows:
The TIiden vote. n2iYs9
The Hayes *TfEt
Tiidcns majority .................... 32.5sa
Blu, the Tilden majority depended On the
vote of New York city. In the city the
vote stood thus:-
ii1a1
Hayes sn'ti
Tlicns majority In the city. ............. ss.eoo
1t il evident that Iildcn could not have
carried the State without his immense ma
jority in the city. Ia the State outside
tho city Mr. Tilden was In a very consid-
cradle minority, as will DO apparent from
the following figures -
1icn vote In the state t1l.stR
ridden vote n the city li1hSD
Tcn vote outside the city. t't.sis
On the other side:
Hayes vote In the state. tnA W
Hayes vote IN the city. .................. ss.soi
Hayes vote outside the city tSorst
Leaving out tho vote Of the city this
strength of the two parties In the State