The Forest Republican. [volume] (Tionesta, Pa.) 1869-1952, 1879-09-03
WEATHER WORDS.
The Curious Theory OF an English
ScIentist--IlOw Dry and wet Summers
Follow Each other

Scientist--hOW DRY ana wet summers
Follow Each other
Mr.. Henry Roe, an English scientist,
sends the following letter to the London
Times:
suppose everybody on occasion en-
acts the part of weather prophet, and
sometimes his prediction comes true (;
butif | were to pose in that character in
your columns, and proceed to make the
melancholy claim OF having long fore
told the present dismal season, | should
probably get a shrug for my conceit, if
not II laugh for my folly. Dropping,
then, the prophets mantle, and arming
myself only with the chronicler's pen, /
would like to place on record one or two
results of careful observations l have
made extending over nearly thirty sum-
mers. The first of these results is that
dry and wet periods succeed one another
inalternate waves ofnearly equal length.
Not that this equality of duration is
quite absolute, OF that the wave of one
period is exactly the fac-simile of that of
a corresponding period at an earlier or a
later time, but there is enough of regu-
larity and uniformity about the waves
to make the family likeness clearly dis
cernible to any eye that looks for it.
These periods extend over three whole
years for each, and the following simple
rules will enable any one to work out
the several cycles of years for himself
l. When the number representing any
given year is even and exactly divisible
by three, that year is the middle one Of
three cold and wet summers.
2. When the number representing the
year is odd and divisible by three, then
that year is the middle of triad of dry
and hot summers.
For example, 1860 is even and divisi-
BILE by three, and the prevailing charac-
teristic of the three years 1859, 1860,
1861 was wet, or wet and cold and again
1863 is odd and divisible by three, and
everybody remembers 1862, 1863 and
1864 MS bright, hot and dry summers.
Taking now range of twenty-seven
years, over which my own personal OBJ
servations extend, and applying the rules
just given, the wet and cold triads were
1885, l959-6I. lS65-67, 197l-73, and
lS77-79, while the dry and hot triads
were 1868, lS62-64, I868-7O, and 1874
76; and without claiming that no single
year broke loose from this very simple
order of seasons, l fearlessly maintain
that all the markedly wet or dry sunni
mers of the past twenty-seven years fal,
accurately within some wet or dry period
as given above; so that no very wet year
falls in what should have been a dry per
iod, nor any very dry year in: what
alphabetically was n wet period This
hypothesis receives considerable con-
6rmation from an examination of the
average prices of corn during the years
already referred to. Ordinarily after a
dry summer the next years averages
ought to be high, and after wet summer
the reverse. Now it is fact that high
averages prevailed from 1854 to 1856, and
low from 1857 to 1859; they were up again
during lS60-62, down in l863-65, up in
1S66-69, down in 1869-72, up in 1894,
and down in 1857.
How far these cycles may be shown to
coincide with the'greater cycle of eleven
or twelve years, which is observed in the
maXima and minima of spots on the suns
surface, is more than have time now to
inquire; but my good neighbors at Sher
! borne know that for some two or three
years past | have been pointing out tC
them in public lectures most of the things
have spoken of in this letter, and / have
been more than borne out by the facts
| So much for chronicle. Now for one
word of prediction. The number 1881 i:
odd and divisible by three, and if there il
anything in my theory, that year ough
to be the middle one in triad of hot anC
dry summers. | am looking, therefore
with much confidence TO good summer
in 1880, followed by two similarly gooC
ones in 1881 and 1882, and for the sake o
every interest in the country, | earnestl,
hope my expectation may not be disap
pointed