New-York tribune., 1878-11-09
THE NEXT pREsIDENTLAL CONTEST.

THE NEXT PRESIDENTIAL CONTEST.
The latest elections give the Republicans
promise of majority of the electoral votes
If three tickets should be i'll the field, and the
division of parties should be such as 1t has
been in the elections of this year, the Repub-
licaus would have n decided plurality ana
would choose electors in twenty States cast
ing 213 electoral votes. 1t must be remem-
bered that in Ohio, although the Democrats
secured majority of the Congressman Dy an
infamous gerrymander, the Republicans elected
their State ticket, and, had Presidential elect
ors been chosen. would have secured all the
electoral votes of the State. In Indiana ana
Orppon only. the Democrats could have chosen
1S ELECTORS: in California, though n Demo-
cratic robbery of the people has made the
DELEGATION in Congress equally divided the
Republicans had 6,793 majority for their Con-
gressIonal nddatcs, and may confidently eA-
pect in September next to elect three mem
bers. Wirh only $50 majority to overcome III
the remaining district. For twenty-five years.
California has never given Democratic ma
iority mt a Presidential election, and 1t Is,
moreover, very radical hard-money State
With three parties in the field, then, the Re-
pubhcauS NAV safely count upon CallfOrDla
and every other Western State except Oregon
and Jndjana-in all. 100 electoral votes. On
the basis of the latest elections, they may
count upon every electoral vote from New
England. New-Yogk, New-Jersey and Penn
svlyania, 113 III all. There remain for the
Democrats the Solid South with 1873 votes,
and Indiana and Oregon with Is votes, or LOO
IN all.
But let the currency question pass out Oh
the way, and the Grecnback element return
10 the parties from which it came, and what
would happcn2 The Solid South would then
become the ovcrshadOwing issue OF the can
yass. 1t would be answered by Solid North,
for even Oregon, in that phase OF National
politics, would probably side with the RepnO-
hcans, as il has done in every Presidential cleo
tior save one, and Indiana did not falter III lis
Rcpubicanism for twenty years, until tue
currency oucstlon caused disaster. a SOid
North, with 231 electoral votes, viii never be
so broken as to be beaten 80 long as the
South remains solid. After 1850, that dlv-
sion of parties remaining, the Republicans
will be prepared to resume control OF the
Senate by retiring MeSsrs Eaton, Of Connec-
ticut, Mcdonald, of ludilna, Randolph, OF
New -Jcisey, Herman, of Ncwlork, Thurman,
OF Ohio, and Wallace, of Pennsylvania, whose
terms expire IN 1881, and to enlarge Their
electoral vote by a new apportionmcnt to ac-
cord with the loss Of population ut the South
and the enormous increase at the North and
West Nor over, 1t will then he considered
whether States IN which free elections are not
held, and the Constitution of the United
States is Systematically disrcgardcd and de-
A.. A gia NrnfI II
elect Congressmcn at all. If we are to have
forced upon Us the unwrlcomc issue winch
Solid South inevitably raises, patient and
enduring North will not be found wanting
when II is settled.
Confronted with sure defeat if they keep
the currency question alive, and three parties
i'm the field and with no less sure defeat il
they drop it and fall back upon Solid SOuth
for the controlling issue of the next canvass,
what Will the Democratic party do ! The
Cincinnati Inquirer says, III effect, that the
Democratic party must virtually merge itself
in the Grcenback party, in the hope Of VIII
ming additional votes IN the West and South.
This crawling under matches in order to sur
prise "A foe ~ not a new device. But there
will be a great many politicians and journals
at the West whicn will take this view. and
naturally 1t is decidedly the easiest for them.
People who have grown 10 be great states
men by howling about the currency and the
banks are not the men to abandon those is
sues if they -an help 1t. Another faction, on
the other hand, already welcome the patriotic
advice of The LOndOR Times, which kindly
dominates Mr.. Bayud Tor President of the
United States. We suspect that the Demo
cratic party will hardly ratily the nomination.
Worse men than Mr.. Baymd have been
Presidents. WOisc men may yet be nom-
mated for the Presidency. But the elections
of October killed Mr.. Thurman and Mr. Hen
dricks; the cipher dispatches killed Mr.. Til
den; aud the elections Of Tuesday last killed
Mr.. Bayard. 1t is more his misfortune than
his fault, perhaps, that he became the
favo!ite candidate of Tammany, but, be- 1t
fault or misfortune, it IL fatal. Tammany
cannot hope to carry Ncw-GoIk, Ncw-Jcrscy
or Connecticut, and Il Tammany candidate
will not he sought by the hungry Democracy
in 1880. There is another reason, to Mr.. Bnyard
fatal, if not to some other personally worthy
men. Thc friends OF Mr.. Bayard at the South
have Ovcrdone the business. They have made
the South 40 remarkably solid that there will
not be the faintest shadow OF chance for a
Southern candidate. Not man Will be found
with the audaciry to propose that the "bull-
"dozrd" third Of this country shall proceed,
by a President from itself and OF its own Sc
lection. to govern the other two-thirds.
Whenever the smoke of Tuesdays battle
clears away, 1t will be found that the remains
of Mr. Bayard he on the field, killed, like
Stoncwall jackson, by hasty Shots from his
own supportcrs-l,iIled by " the Mississippi
"plan," the White Leagues Of Louisiana, and
the red-shirt brigade Of South Carolina
IL