New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1878-02-12

would be but lust Unfortunately, the effects
will be felt in other civilized countries ana
the uncertainty, as long as it continues VIII
especially affect this market, on account OF
the large English capital invested in United
States bonds or other securities, or loaned Id
this country. The war has already caused
the diversion of vast capital to Russia ana
Turkey, and q much larger amount would he
drawn from London end Paris If England
should 90 to war. or even make vigorous pre-
variations for war, thus causing like prepara-
tons elsewhere.
It happens i'll for us that this uncertainty OF
affairs in Europe is at time when everything
here is disordered by the silver agitation. AS
nobody can guess what any American security
may be worth hereafter, or what bank, COM
pany or firm may be swept away by the changes
threatened, there is growing indispositlon 10
make investments or loans. Had the credit or
this country been unimpaired at this time,
when doubt hangs over everything in Europe,
that very large class of investors who prefer
the highest security would have been pecull-
ary attracted to American opportunities. lt
is probable that, instead of losing many mil
lions of capital, this country would then nave
increased the capital available for its indus
tries. On the contrary, we have seen that MY
or sixty millions have been drawn away by
sales of United States bonds alone, and how
much more by sales of other securities and
withdrawal OF loans IN this country 1t Is I'M
possible to say.
1t is thought by The Economist that the
available supply of money for the purposes OF
loans will be not greater in England this year
than last, even if peace is restored, and that
"the demands for purposes OF trade VIII
abe not greater-probably even less" On
this side, it is already obvious that trade de-
mands are very small. The latest bank state
ments--those of last Saturday at Ncw-Y York
and of last Monday at Boston and Phlladel-
phia-shOw an aggregate of only $429,3F.ooo
in loans, against $3.50, 1900 at the cOrre-
sponding statements last year, sh1inkage oil
nearly per cent. But the decline In bank
loans represents but small part OF the de-
crease in III loans or in business transacted
The exchanges at this city, for exam
ple. were only 1914, 105,46 last week,
against SAG, 1876, 463 during the second
week of February. 1877. and the dill
ference was even greater, the week ending
February being compared with the week
ending February 2, 1877. II it be Thought
tiat the stagnation in the stock market ex-
plains this loss IN amount or transactions, IL
should be observed that the latest returns
those for the week ending February 3-show,
in comparison with those OF the corresponding
week last year, losses of nearly 10 per cent at
Boston, "a per cent at Philadelphia, 6per cent at
Chicago, II per cent at Cincinnati, Il per cent
at Baltimore 13 per cent at st. Louis, IL per
cent at Providence. and 10 per cent at Pittsburs,
and at San Francisco the preceding week
ohort Is Dor cent. 1t cannot be denied In
presence of these facts, that the prevailing
uncertainty causes Il very great ana genera
sbrinkape in the amount of business transacted
and payments made.
No reason appears fOr expecting that tDis
disastrous influence will speedily cease. The
Europcan doubts may be resolved at any
time, though there is more reason to anticipate
that they will be indefinitely prolonged by
dip,omacy. The Silver Bill may be brought to
a vote in the Senate this week, and amend
ments are thought probable. Unless two
thirds vote can be found in the House, not
v'v far the bill, but to choke off all debate,
the struggle Ill tissu IL. continue Mt least
another week. When the bill reaches the
President the great importance of stating
clearly and with force his objections may lead
him to defer q veto the full ten days
allowed. In that case the final struggle
would not begin in the House before
the 9th of March, and can hardly be ex-
pected to terminate in the Senate before the
middle of that month. Hence uncertainty may
continue during nearly all the period in which
The important Spring trade should be most ac-
tive. But this is not all. Even if the bill is
defeated, attempts will undoubtedly be made
70 frame some other which can pass, or by
some other methods to accomplish the aims of
the inaationists and repudIatOrs. Another great
cause of uncertainty is the pending Tariff and
Revenue Bill, which cannot be finally disposed
of, if it passes the House at all, for months.
On the whole, we are likely to learn this year
what is the cost of such Congress as We
have. Destructive uncertainty can hardly be
cxnected to pass away before the midsummer
heats bring an abatement of business.