The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1878-12-29


in the current politics of that country
whether the Senate is to have a republican
majority or to continue as it is with a ma
jority in the hands of the reactionary
parties No other point in French politics
is of any moment by comparison with this
one, for republican success here will be
the capture of the last redoubt held by the
enemy it will be the final overthrow of
the hopes of all those who have counted
upon revision of the constitution that
would restore some one or another of the
monarchies, while the failure to get re-
publican majority will leave the way open
for the indefinite renewal of such danger
Gus enterprises as that of May 10.
Republican success is regarded on very
good grounds as well nigh certain. In our
politics one can speculate pretty safely on
the election of Senators some months be-
fore the Senators are actually voted for,
because their choice is commonly deter
mined in the election of the bodies that
choose them. On analogous principles it is
judged that the republicans will have a
majority of twenty-five in the French SEN
ate after the coming elections, for experts
have counted to that effect in considering
the politics of the actually chosen Senate
rial electors. But no election is ever abso-
lutely certain until shutdown on election
day, and we have seen some that were not
certain even then. Perhaps there will be as
little opportunity to falsify the votes taken
in France as there ever was anywhere to
falsify the results of an election, and if the
reactionary elements had no other hope
than that they would likely abandon the
field. There is always room tor error in
counting results that must depend upon a
force SO changeful as opinion. How many
tidal waves" have we seen that did not
come up TO anybody's instep, and how
many times have we seen completed at the
ballot box in day sweeping changes for
which the sharpest guessers had believed
the people were not ready. There have
never been greater mistakes made in count
ing upon mems politics than in France.
Theirs was elected at Bordeaux because he
was monarchist. His election was re-
garded in the Chamber itself as almost
equivalent to q restoration of the Orleans
family.
But the success of the republicans in
these elections may be almost predicated
upon change itself, for the tendency of all
| change in political opinion is toward that
party. In SO far as men change at all they
change in that direction. There is no con-
spicuous instance of recantation of repub-
Ta,t t1,on f1ar tiaco rfi<
Of the past the republican is everywhere
the party of to-day and of the future In
France especially it is the only party that
is in sympathy with any vital thought or
has any definite purpose that it dare avow.
All the other parties are intrigues. Cleri-
Gals, Chambordists, Orleanists, imperial
ists MacMahonists-these so-called parties
are merely small coteries of conspirators
| who look upon the French nation as a thing
| to be .'cornered" in their political schemes.
But this, of course, they dare not avow; and
they do not seem to have the wit to invent
any really plausible cover for their pre-
fences. Clericalism is the more aggressive
element, and this party will always havo
some adherents, but can never be numeri-
cally great in France, for the favorite super
stition Of Frenchmen is the hatred of
priests. All the Chambord campaign has
resolved itself into the occasional publica-
ton of an amiable letter from the shallow
parte campaign has been handed over to
Cassagnac, who fights now and then. In
one point all these elements agree-that they
have no common policy except abuse Of
the Republic. In its present frame Of mind
the French nation somewhat resembles an
urchin who rather more than suspects the
reality of that awful black man who is to
come and carry him away if he is not a very
good boy. They are rather amused than
otherwise at the awful pictures Of radical
ism held up to brighten them.
They do not scare SO well as they did,
They have become too much used to the
machinery, and they know as much about
the bugaboo as the people who show it to
excite juvenile terror. Since 1893 the great
weapon against the Republic in all countries
has been this same story Of the terrible
things that would come to pass if it should
obtain power Every murder done in the
Reign Of Terror is quoted as an example Of
republican policy. One might suppose that
the world had forgotten all about its Bloody
Marys, and its Ivans the Terrible and its
other crowned butchers, and that no monarch
had ever taken human life unjustly, to see
the way that official savagery is complacently
set down to the score Of the Republic But
this ever ready repetition of the same old
story has had its inevitable effect of making
people used to it, of making it ineffective
for any political purpose, and of making
ridiculous and contemplate the party that
uses it 1t has led, moreover to the re-
Election on the part of the people that this
same sort OF impeachment OF the republican
party-this same system of playing upon