The New Orleans daily Democrat., 1878-11-09
THE EAST.
RUSSIA SEEKING T0 VNDo THE REAs~
LIN TREATY.
yynaat Erect nn Anwle- Wu@saan war
would Wave on English Ruae
I'm EMsasM.

observation, even for an Bnglshman oil for
tune-and that as rule is SAYING a'l that can
be said. Though but title over fifty years oil
age he has passed ,hirty-two years OF active
nublic service; beginning as suhaltern In the
Hast India Cumpany's army (white troops. the
old First Madras FusiIiers believe), then hll-
ing snyeral responsible positions in the East
Irdian Civil Service. and finally Tor the last
uax vaars holding seat in Parliament
Naturally enough the topic ofconversation to
suggest itself upon introduction to such man
xyaa The prevailing complications In
TEE EAST;
ana while. perhaps, could find other topics of
rreater passing interest to the average reader
~ tho DEMOCRAT than a rehearsal OF the main
noints of the conversation, am sure could
hardly find one more likely to be Instructive to
that class of your patrons who occasionally look
heyond the boundaries of the United States In
search Of food for thought.
Van may remember o letter somewhat similar
In scope to this one. written last spring. In
which gave the substantial features OF u casual
interview with Sir Edward Thornton on the
subject Of the European complication. since al
laved. or rather as 1t semms to me- postponed
- pEACorsFIE1D's TREATY OF BERLIN.
Vou will also perhaps recall the fact that Sir Ed
vvard at that time positively secuted the pros
meet or even the possibility OF an open rupture
hetween his country and Russia: basing his
faith in peace upon his knowledge OF the fnan-
oial incapacity of the latter to sustain the cost
of a war with first rate power like England so
soon after the expensive and wasteful struggle
aTith the Turks.
m The course Of conversation with my new
aoauaintance I mentioned this prophecy of Sir
Edward and asked whether. in his opinion, 1t
svould hold good through the new phase which
saerned to have come upon the situation as be-
tween ,,,.nx
II, Asia as we'll as in Europe
.sThat.n said my British friend in reply. lis
question which cannot. perhaps, te as easily
answered as your inquiry last spring might
have been answered by Her Majesty's repre-
sentative here. There was no time between the
signing Of the San Stefano treaty and that of
Berlin. when men Of real information either in
England or on the continent seriously apDre-
handed that the differences between our gov
ernment and that of the Gar would culminate
III war. At the worst there could have been only
atom porary Suspension Of diplomatic relations.
I'M fact, J. dare say that the knowledge that Bis
znarck would prove conservator OF the peace
y any o de Brn and Kassa to
do great deal Of useless talking. which they
would have refrained from had they been left to
their own devices. .
you have presume, seen e couple of pugil-
zats. who, being aarmfy held apart by mutual
friends. loudly protested their r, desire to 1ght3
70 ~ Of Hue pogether ether to to. drink mug Of ale Some
Beaconefeld and ,Gortschakoff carried ON their
exchange of Diplomatic badlnage under the
eye of Bismarck at the Congress. So far as
they took that particular turn the discussions
of the Berlin congress served to amuse rather
than to alarm the bes, informed statesmen OF
all the courts concerned"
Z 5sa9r1n sHia P0 warriors of that day were
oh. | NO: mt exactly that. In reality they
80 not warriors. The Russians did not in
1.dT s1Sd * hre,s with us under any clrcumstances
e that tme This no~n an4 well fn9W ~ 'Hn
fhe basis Of the call or invitation when a,, opn,
rnIed tha Congress, The Russian states: ."
never dreamed that they woqd h ee per kpernated TO
freafv unmolested by the other powers. Ihe
Turks themselves knew thhtthnt treaty was an
impossible document when they Signed Il.
known that it would be torn ~ ny the powers as as
soon as it, provisions were ascertainea ana
understood" A.,
.,aaian,cv in the minds Of the Russian states
men Of imuosng upon Turkey set or Gonql-
lions which they knew w9ald lie oe vetoed xa ny ie 4
ike inviting humiiati" n. A., .ud
humiliation does not convey the same ~ meaning mig
Saxon. Russian diplomacy Is well deseribed
IN a nhrase coined at the congress of 1886.
which has since become almost motto o, t9e {
Cars advisers. Perhaps you remember IL.
La Ratssie ne b0nde pes; ette Sc fechente' 1he
RUSSIAN STATESMEN
are not compelled to publish and ex ex-
plain their pakeshfts Of Ro,eY as taf
sta.eshhen are herefore when they say that hey blde
their time they mean simply that they can .
afford wait and hnt hsy Wbeb 1aee no
statesmen or rulers in Europe possess Iht
Russian power is really toe fourth IN EUROPE le Pc
other great powers. But in point, of initiative
she has the advantage over all the others Q
Intensely eentralized autho.iy ana .hGro9gn1! a.
most dangerous adversary in Europe; in al
other respects she is less potent IMAM eiIhe
Great Britain France Or Germany.
~ understand you to intimate that the Rus
a;ans maCe The San Stefano treaty to pleas
h their army, and that they then sunmiltteat .
Mnronel Int without any more design of observ
ing he latter than they had hope OF being per
mffted TO carry out the former|
uhSiIu nThe Russian states men never intend to Oh
serva any treaty except in SO far as Its stipuia
tions promote their peculiar Designs. lne
can be whipped or bullled into ALMOST any soI
nj an n accommodation, as witness the, treaty Q
1856; but they will not stay Whlppeu one o lilo ~
ment longer than they feei 'ne A ol nhra II,
eonoueror at their throats as Witness me aoro
cation OF the Black sea clause, amounting 1 y U
abrogation of the entire treaty. In 1870. Iha
ar s faeies ii she Of 5Re Russian
sudden initiative and rapid execution ra t cam M
cur now the Russians would deal with the Bel
lin treaty as they did with the Black sea claus
In the peace OF 1856. ,
Is such an opportunity likely to occur s
1.-THE answer to that inquiry would anord
key to the whole situation. No man can sa
whether. such an opportunity VIII occur sst hot
when, The Russians seem to be conl1denG oot
nf the opportunity and that it Is not far OIL. =.
How. when or where do they expect IL
arise?"', ,onaa +ba+
THE AUSTRIAN OCCUPATION OF BOSNIA
xporld develop the requisite comp plications. 81
shat Motiih hone they have probably abandoned t
this time. Another OF their hopes "a and q, q p
which is by no means apanooheo' Is III u
direction Of ,,,,r
IF the Turks and Greeks should come
n,xrs II Ino onar fbe rectihcation of their fro,
sr o%nnd pEht Ena nHse the ID Nh
the A time which they are bidlng. The
aan ba they hys Se Russian mind II IS
With VI m the notion that the English raj as thf +
call It. In India is strucure oulio tpon tbe non =,
soso,+ cF a yoinnno The idea is tHaE tU6 con