The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1878-08-12
The Fan Elections for Congress.

In regard To the next House OF Represent
atives there is n great deal OF wild specu-
lation which rejects certain well-established
facts and admits others that are more than
doubtful. For example, the redistricting
of the States OF Missouri and Ohio will to-
gethcr give the Democrats at least eight
and probably ten additional votes not like
ly to be affected, except in n single district,
by any new or outside element. An i'll
crease OF two may be fairly expected in
South Carolina, in the districts Of RAINEY
and SMALLs. That now represented by
CAIN is also claimed, but the colutcd voters
on the seacoast and islands are in IA great
majority over the whites, and unless they
split, negro Representative will continue
to sit in the House.
The Second District in Florida. for which
B1sBEE is the present member, would GER
tainly send a Democrat in his place, but for
the i'll feeling caused by the alleged neglect
Of the Committee on Elections in the House
to seat the contestant, FINLEY, who suf-
fered from some Of the frauds by which the
vote of that State was stolen. FINLEY has
declined to be candidate again, and his
refusal makes confusion, by which the dis
trict is rendered doubtful.
On the other side of the account, the D.m-
ocrats are likely to lose the Ninth District
OF Kentucky, TURNER, the Representative,
having failed to gain ground in the House
or TO acquire the good will of his colleagues.
CASEY Young OF the Tenth Tennessee Dis
trict, will be beaten by an Independent, UNI
less a sudden and unexpected reaction
should occur in his favor. The retirement
OF FRANK JONES from the First New Hamp-
shire District is favorable to the election Of
a Republican as his successor, because no
other Democrat will be willing or is able to
expcnd what Mr.. JONES did, in the interest
OF his party, to make success certain.
Present indications point to loss Of one
Democrat in Massachusetts, one in Con-
necticut, and one in Colorado, and perhaps
one or two others scattering. These changes
are confined to States in which the National
or Greeuback movement will not be seriously
felt. When Pennsylvania, New York Illinois,
Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and
that category of States are considered, in
which the new element has a very large fol-
lowing, more reserve is needed in estimating
results They all have Republican ma orities
In the present delegations, and therefore
eH' Sh"hN' lol lne Deino'IhlS OuBHl W Dc
better than for their opponents.
Both sides are demoraiZed in Pennsyl-
vanla in several districts, and il is difficult
Mt this time to form any sound opinion as
to which OF the two will suffer most from a
threatened disintegration. The same crlti-
cism will apply to New York on reduced
scale. The current runs with the Democrats
in Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, and other
Western States because the Nationals will
draw most Of their numbers from the Re-
publicans.
Fairly examined, the Nationals, while they
may hold the balance OF power in several
Congressional districts, have not yet at
,alned sufficient strength in any recognized
form to elect many Representatives. BY
forming combinations and making bargains
they may succeed in returning half u dozen
or more members To the next House. II the
followers OF KEARNEY hold their own, and
do not by their extravagant and Impractical.
bic notions drive off a wel-inclned support
they can carry the First and Second Dis.
aicts Of California for their own candidates
without any serious difficulty.
Outside Of few districts in New England
and possibly one or two elsewhere, the Re
publicans do not expect to make gains
They would be very glad TO remain station
airy with their present strength. The tall
III increasing their column from the Soutl