The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1878-09-09

Gently made confident predictions that the
long night of commercial and industrial
distress approaches its end and that the
country is in the bright dawn of new era
of prosperity. We refer, of course, to the
sanguine hopes expressed by Secretary
Sherman in his speech at Mansfield and to
the encouraging expectations put forth by
President Hayes in his elaborate address
on the fair grounds near st. Paul. The
President has spoken in an equally hopeful
tone in most of his minor speeches during
his present trip to the Northwest. We be-
lieve that there is great deal to Justify
the authorizations of the President and Sec
rotary Of the Treasury respecting the imme-
date business future, although we might
take exception to some of the reasons as
signed by the President for his opinion.
The President deals too much with mere
history and has feeble grasp on the facts
of the immediate situation. He parades
the steady reduction of the public debt
since the close of the war but inasmuch
as that reduction has continued during the
five years since the panic it is no
more an argument for brisk re-
vival of business this year than it
would have been last year or the preceding
year. The same remark will apply to his
demonstration that the annual interest on
the national debt is steadily decreasing,
that smaller proportion Of the debt is held
abroad and that our exports are in excess
of our imports. We have been moving
IN, f>rf he To-
three years but Mr.. Hayes does not inform
the country why brilliant business revival
should come in at just this stage of long
and pretty uniform experiment. We do not
dispute the soundness OF Mr.. Hayes opin-
ion, but the suficiency of his reasons We,
too, believe that business has passed the
lowest point of stagnation and is certain
to improve, although we expect no sud-
den and brilliant rebound The moderate
and stable prosperity which probably
awaits US will come like the slow starting
of heavy train of cars after it has been
brought to dead stop.
The reasons assigned by President Hayes
for expecting general and immediate re-
vival of business are really sound reasons
for expecting the perfect success of the re-
sumption of specie payments We have no
doubt that when resumption comes in
January next it will. to borrow one of Mr..
Lincoln's phrases, ''come to stay" In this
view President Hayes statistical exhibits
are important. He showed in detail that
we are selling great deal more to
foreigners than we are buying of
them. 1t thence follows that the coin Of
the country will not be drained away to
discharge mercantile balances. Mr.. Hayes
also repeats the striking and most crafty
ing statement of Secretary Sherman in his
Mansfield speech that the amount of our
national bonds held abroad has been re-
duced within few years from eight hun
dred or thousand million dollars to a
point between two hundred ard two hun
bred and fifty millions. 1t hence follows
that the coin of the country cannot be
drained away in large amounts to pay the
interest due to foreign bondholders. 1t
follows as a necessary business con-
sequence that the only demand for
coin after resumption will be merely
for domestic uses. For the inter-
nal business of the country our people pre-
fer paper to coin, as, indeed, all modern
communities do, SO far as their currency
laws permit. In England, where no bank
notes are permitted below the denomina-
ton of five pounds, there is large employ
ment of specie in daily transactions; but it
is only by prohibiting small notes that coin
1,a liant in.
two and five dollar greenbacks and bank
notes are not to be prohibited, they are GER
tain to keep coin out Of circulation when the
paper currency is Mt par. 1t is true, in.
deed, that if the paper currency should
be ut ever so small q discount it
would be presented for redemption, but
Just as soon as diminution of its
amount should bring it to par with
coin not another dollar of paper would be
offered for redemption, and the people would
exercise their habtual preference for paper
money, which is lighter and more conven-
lent. We believe that no banker or mer-
chant is OF the opinion that the Treasury
will need to redeem fifty millions of green
backs, or even half of that sum, to secure
their full equivalence with coin. Now as
the only demand for coin will be merely what
will suffice to bring the paper currency to
par-an amount so small as to be a mere
bagatelle-there is no apparent possibility
of the resumption experiment proving a
failure.
Having this solid and well-grounded as.
surance that resumption next year will be q
success we may dismiss the anxieties which
accompany that worst pest Of BUSINESSMAN
unstable and fuctuating currency There
may be other causes of doubt and misgiv-
ing, but this great and disturbing one is
practically eliminated from the situation.
We are as reasonably certain of this now rs