The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1878-11-23
The chance. the Afghan War.

To THE EDITOR OF THE SUN-Sr: That
the events Of history are tritely said to repeat
themselves Is only another way OF stating the
truth that human communities are at all times
subject to the same laws OF cause and effect
Military history is no exception 10 the general
rule rs the course Of most wars ancient and
modern. demonstrates. The Russian conquest
81 Turkey In 1877 was a mere repetition. on n
larger scale and By the only other practicable
route of the campaigns Of $3.50. compressed
into single year. In an probability. the i'm
pending struggle in Afghanistan will be a reue-
ton II the events u forty years since modified
10y the increasing knowledge Of the parties en-
gagged
Thcre is great deal Of loose speculation on
the chances ~ the coming war. which has been
treated chiefly from the standpoin: Of prejudice
against England. Much 81 this criticism If
founded on the partisan statements Of the pres
cni Eng .sh Opposition. who designedy put the
worst face on matters but great deal more
rests ON suucrncial knowledge Of the events OF
tie first Afghan war. A little study a that pe-
rlli VIII enable Ms 60 SEQ moro clearly tho
chances of success in Tho present struggle.
The situation in S3s Q. when the Afghan war
occurred. WIS very much lik" that OF the pres
ent struggle. Russian prestige WINS NJ its
highest In Asia. and II WAS jealousy OF Russian
influence that caused the war. Persia WAS
stirred up q hesleEe llorat. the nearest post 10
AfENNulStA ana hA-~ ON iVI- served IA the
Persian armies. litd u not been for the efforts
of an English officer Lieut. Pottingcrl who
WAS returning 90 India from a leave Us the Per
sian route. u rat must have fallen. iotungel =
The Afghnus were ~ good soldiers then as
now. and their armament was actually superior
20 that ~ the English infantry. Their iczulls
had "a range more than twice ms long ms the
smpothbore muskct then used, which could not
ho depended ON beyond Two hundred yards. In
tho-r days "a battery could unlimber with per
tcgt safety nj three hundred yards from hostile
lrn ia secure RON any 9ut stray p=!lsts
now, were the Bolan and khyber Passes but
English communications lay through the Pun
Jluh. where thd ndelity OF Runleel singh was
merely personal, and did not extend TO his
people in the event Of his death.
Under these circumstances. an English col
umn Of less than 10000 men. under Sir John.
giterw4rd Lord keane. marched through the
Bolan Ia9s without serious res stance and cap
lurcd Candahar Ghuznec. Cahul. and Jella-
lnbad. overrunnng and suhduing all Afghan
istan in few months. Tho only fighting that
took place was nj Ghulnee. and that place was
Stormri more 70 give opportunity fora hIll!lant
despatch than Tor any real necessity. Afghan
istun was conquered. Dost Mohammed driven
ONT ana nnally captured, shah soolah was
placed on the throne, and Lord kcane LEFT the
country In triumph. The subsequent misfor-
tunes ol the British In the hhybcr Pass wero
owing 10 the weakness and cOwardico Of Shah
Soolah, who allowed Il rebellion To spread. and
the almost inconceiVabe faulty of Gen Elphin-
stone. who persisted in trusting tho Aighans til
y was too late, and then retreated instead OF
lighting. Moreover. the force that was massa-
1895 Of safety. and succumbed without serious
resistance, being largely made up OF scpoys.
who were broken down by the cold. 20 which
they wore unaccustomed. The low military
powers OF the Aighans were proved hy Sales
successful defence. with an English handful,
Of Jcllhldbnd. and by the easy triumph Of Pol
look Hho forced the khybcr Pass a little later
with less than 5000 men and no serious loss,
The chances of the present war then, Judgl ng
from past experience, indicate IN easy triumph
for the English. The advance Of military
science In still moro in their favor. While the
Aighans remain substantially what they were
forty years ago the English have breech.
loading long grange rifles and cannon. and
three times the available resources Of those
dhYs; Their communications rest on a sub
lect PunlAub and an India spanned by rail
ways. They put thirty thousand men into
camp NJ Attock, where less than ten thousand
marched under Sir John Keane.
Judging without prejudice one way or the
other aud assn nlng decent leadership Tor the
British. there ia every probability that their
Afghan campaign Of 1850 will he as swift and
triumphant as tho advance OF keane's corps
forty years ago. Tho country conquered. the
greatest DIM 'ulties are those which lie beyond
i. and these are 10y no means so formidable as
tho nglophoblsts would have us believe.
CENTURION.