The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1878-04-05

conditions experienced Yet whom the Scott de-
ducons drawn from these conditions relating 10 the
predictions. are compared with tho oacal bulletins,
grave d thai reduce very ma
eraliy the value Of the deductions OF the bulletins
The question OF correctness must therefore be nrss
decided bs,wsen The daily bulletins ~ published in
the London PRESS which synopses Of the records
OF daily made under the direction Of the
British Meteorological once, and the statements Of
Mr. Scott az 10 the conditions Of weather that pre-
vailed on corresponding days. before any comparison
be satisfactorily made between the weather pre-
dicted by the HERALD ana that experienced tho
general data ON which such comparison can DO made
contained 10 the published bulletins in The LONDON
Times for every evening Saturday at SIX O'CLOCK
and in The Times Register Of Events for 1871"
which gives the morning bulletin teght A. NJ,
for every day except Sunday throughout the year;
the Weather corrcspondcnce and Shipping reports
published IN the Tipes; the Bulletin lnternafsondle Of
the Paris Observatory tho steamship reports OF
tho HERALD Weather Bureau and othor records con-
nected herewith the hand, the remarks OF
Mr. Scott in his tabuaiion OF the predictions ana the
results as determined by him, on the other.
In this tabuated analysts, entitled "A Comparison
OF American Warnings WITH British Weather in 1871"
cognizance taken Of thirtysix warning teicgrams
referring dierens disturbances sent By the HERALD
between February Is December IA, 1877. In that
live OF which Mr. Scott has not noticed In his CON-
parison They are OF March O. April IL May II. July
% and August IS OF tho nrst ana the last
completely fulfilled according 10 the comparison
with the Official bulletins published in the London
T.mes Tho other two were partly fulfilled, according
TO the authority Ofthe warnings noticed by Mr.
Scott those oil tho 17th and 23d Of April referred 70
only disturbance, explained in the HERALD Of
February %, 1873 The message dated September 20,
warns as follows:-"A dangerous cyclone ~ about
tho Atlantic northward OF the Bermudas, and
will probably reach the British and French coasts
the 27th. with heavy gates and rains" The cyclone
proved 10 be one of very slow movement ard hid
arrive as predicted, from observations OF It's prog
ress subsequently, made special message was seut
referring TO 1t follows:A cyclone storm is cross
ing tho Atlantic course parallel 10 and about ten
degrees north OF line drawn from the Bcrmudas
through the Azores 10 the Bay Of Biscay the winds
are very violent, but the progress OF the storm 10
slow. ~ Is attended by lightning and heavy rams"
As stated the HERALD OF February % last
..lhis was Intended as a special warning Tor YES
sells about to leuve port for the westward"
But Mr. Scott his analysis treats the two messages
as referring 10 two distinct storms and calls the last
one "total failure" although u was not prediction
In any sense but simply supplementary message.
Again. he tails into error OF dates and confounds
the ulGiment OF prediction which no does not quote
IN hs with that OF another warning. Although he
admits that the warning an "sntire success" 1t
was Tor the message he enormously quotes with
IT, In presence OF thus curious COMPARISON j. ex-
tremcly ficu TO follow The limo OF Mr. SCOTS crti-
c,sm without devo,ing space to the subject than
be spared Tor the purpose In these columns is
however essential that evidence be produced bearing
on the more striking instances OF difference between
the state Mr. Scott Secretary of the Mecoro
logical Council and director OF the Weather Bureau
England In the daily bulletins issued 10 the press
and those OF the same gentleman whom pursuing
.pr,vate hquiry" Into tho merits OF the "American
storm warnings"
The seven predictions which are admitted 10 have
been attended with cutire success" during 1877 arc
those dated February 49, March TO- April IA, October
49, November and IA and December s. The only OBJ
eci,ons raised the hrst prediction arc that "rhe
message gave no indication OF the probable direction
OF tho windn and also that .the path OF tho
storm from northwest to southeast did not
accord with what might have been anticipated
had t crossed the Atlantic" With regard 10 these
objections The first needs answer as 10 likely Mr.
Scott BY this time sees lie unimportance The second
be,rays want oil familiarity with the movement OF
storms approaching the British coasts, and Is ex-
planned by mis- admission OF difficulty no has
enced In tracing storm paths westward. OF the pre-
dctton OF March, 10 he says:-'The first disturbance
not nOtIncd IN tue telegrAm, ana ncuFiy hS
serious as the second, which was virtually subsi-
diary IT, though the force OF tho wind in Il was
great" A reference 10 tho Official bulletins and
charts shows that there were not Two disturbances,
but one wnicn underwent several changes while
the British islands Mr. Scott evidently
one OF these changes for the movement OF new
depression when MAKING his "prva,e inquiry"
for 10 reference made 10 Two disturbances any OF
the Official bulletins ana charts issued IRON his Office
on the days referred TO his criticism. The bulletin
OF eight A. NJ OF the l4'n, reierring 10 tho storm
centre moved 10 the Norwegian coast on tue 18th
and 18th. says:-s.The depression which lay near
Christian sund has apparently remained almost sta.
ionary tho lowest reading being still reported IRON
that station this morning. IL is impossible dis
cover where Mr. Scott has found tho disturban
TO when he refers 1t Is also difficult TO understand
with HIM how tho grcster disturbance can BIO SUBJ
sidiary 10 tho lesser one, even II they existed In
iacl For the prediction OF April IA, with which he
10y n confusion Of datcs) connects the iuiiment OF
another warning message, he permits himself to con-
tradict his own statements MADE In an adjoining
column with regard the directions OF the gales that
prevailed.
Remarxing on the prediction dated October 20 Mr..
Scott again evidently ias into error regarding The prox
unity OF the 10 The British coasts. lie says:-
.on the night OF tho 10Th a depression skrted our
ives, and northwest coasts, causing some gales" Tue
olcia bulletins and charts make The area, Of
which there were two centres OF disturbance, cover
tho British islands.
The foregoing are what must be termed tho inac-
curscics In Mr. Scouts comments on the predicts Ions
10 whose fuhiments he applies the words, "eElire
success Those that marked ''partial successn
are commented with siill greater differences be-
tween hts Official and personal statement. The
OF tho prediction dated February ~. 1871, viii be
sufficient Tor illustrauon:-
(itRALp prediction Feb. ii )-"Exppct unfayot able
e. with gale friday saturday (23d 24th for
British. rench and spanish coasts"
weather synopsis scVttl"At the date OF receipt OF
telegram was highest IN the ST. with fresh
strong n0rtheriy winds England. On the NIGHT
the crossed the norlh OF scotland
ing uesper progressed, and the westerly winds
crensed stations the on
Saturday n ght, but there rain To matter
tneating TO wafnng-seotp = "fartisi sneccs for