New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1878-08-19
THE UHEAT CROP.

the opinion hitherto expressed, that the injury
to the wheat crop and the decline in prOduc-
ton would be confined To a narrow area, and
that the crop would be, on the whole, the larg-
est ever grown in this country. That serious
injury has resulted in Southern Minnesota and
in tho central part of Northern Iowa, there
seems 70 be no room to question. Some who
have carefully Investigated the matter on the
spot believe that in Il district about 200 miles
long, from about Cedar Falls, Iowa, to st.
PAM, Mimi, and about $50 miles wide from
cast to west. not more than half crop
will be produced. One writer, whose
opportunities for observation have been very
good. thinks that within this district the in
fcriOr quality will reduce the yield below half
crop. On Che other hand, the acreage sown
in that region has increased since last year,
so that Mr.. w. l.. Fawcett, in his annual re-
view published in The Chicago Tribune, esti-
mates only ten bushels to the acre for half
the acreage in Minnesota, and only eighteen
bushels for the rest. making about $1,000
900 bushels in all, instead Of 4S,OOO,0O0 an
ticipatcd six weeks ago. This would be loss of
about 100000 bushels from last year !;
but it is far to add that other well in
formed Observers think the area OF de-
crease will be narrower, and the aggre-
gate result crop in Minnesota about
"a large as that of last season. As to
Iowa, the damage from heat and storms was
less than in Minnesota, and covered q smaller
area. and Mr. Fawcett thinks it will not bal
ance the increase of 100000 acres in plant
ing but that d" the crops OF Iowa and Mime
sofa taken together will this year equal, if
IL. 1t
Even those who regard these estimates as
unduly favorable do not question that there
has been q great increase OF production in
other States. 3he Chicago Commercial esti
mates that in Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Hi
nois, Wisconsin, Missouri. Nebraska, Kansas,
and Iowa, the aggregate acreage Is 9,75O.OOO,
and the yield 190,O00,0OO bushels, against
10000, 900 bushels last year, an increase of
10000. 600 bushels, of which Kansas and HI
nois contribute the greater share. Mr.. Fawcctps
estimqto is a little lowcras to the latter States !;
he finds an increase OF $4,000 acres aud
about 7,O31,37 bushels in. the yield
Of Illinois. and an increase of 100000
acres and about 100000 bushels in the
yield of Kansas. But he does not take INTO
consideration the increase in o iiO, Michigan,
Indiana or Missouri, ard Vet arrives nc the
conclusion that the aggregate wheat crop this
year will be about O7,OOO,OO bushels, or
81 900 bushels more than the crop of
las, year TO support thIs estimate he also
quotes the report obtained by the Secretary
Of State of n braska in July, through
Mr.. G.. W. Bailey and brother. OF the Signal
Service, which promised yield of 22,506,2S0
bushels in that STATE, and the estimates OF
L.. LII
over ID lkota, and believe that the crop will
reach 100000 bushels. against 100000
last year
In Mr.. Fawcctts estimate the crop of Cali
fornia il included, and this, it is now known.
will be very large. Tie Son Francisco Bulletin
and CGU of August 1 have reports showing
nm aggregate OF 2,779, 900 acres planted, an
increase Of 100000 acres. and estimates of
the crop in each county foot up 41,356,0O0
bushels for the State. The CGIi thinks that,
after deductlng the quantity required for home
consumption the State will have 100000
bushels for export aud that the exportable
surplus cannot by any possibility fall below
%. 900 900, an increase of 1000 900 bushels
over last year. In Mr.. Fawcctt's estimate the
increase of crop in California il put mt 49,
900, 900 bushels leaving an increase of
70, 200, 900 bushels for the States east of the
mountains.
If such results as these are reached by
writers and journals hitherto unusually well
informed and correct in estimates il becomes
the question of chief interest whether this
country will be able to find market for the
enormous crop anticipated. Obviously, n low
price must be expected, even for the best
grades, for, though the quantity of the finest
quality produced in Minnesota and Northern
Iowa may be greatly reduced. all accounts
agree that in the other States the crop is not
only large but of superior grade. The low
price will increase the hardship of short crop
for the farmers within the district of greatest
damage, but il will help the country as
whole to dispose of largely increased sur
plus for export From the last crop
it is estimated that about 100,000,000
bushels will have been exported but the es-
tlmated surplus for export from the new crop,
according to Mr.. Fawoett's figures. will reach
1877 900, 900 bushels. Consumption in this
country will doubtless be stimulated to some
extent by low prices, but there will remain,
in any event, greatly increased supply seek
ing foreign markets. 1t will therefore be well
worth while to watch closely the indications
of increase or decrease in the foreign demand,
upon the presumption that this country will
probably have for export, and at low prices,
much greater quantity of wheat than has been
exported from the crop OF 1877.
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