The Ouachita telegraph. [volume] (Monroe, La.) 1865-1889, 1878-04-12
THE COMING CAMPAIGN.
Washington Post ]


There is every indication that the
contest of next fall for the control of
the Forty-sixth House of Representa-
tives will be the most interesting and
important Congressional canvass ever
held. The campaign of 1874 was n sort
Of popular phenomenon, and its results
were as astonishing to the Democrats
as they were stupefying to the Republi-
cans. The mastery which the Demo-
Gratis then obtained came very much
like windfall or like AN unexpected
legacy from some forgotten relation,
and candor compels us to say that the
political fortune thus easily acquired
has to a considerable extent been squan-
dered with the prodigality usual in
such cases. The canvass of '76, SO far
as Congress was concerned, showed an
immense decline in Democratic quota
tions, but still left healthy margin
for prudent operations. The fact is
that the majority we had in the Forty
fourth Congress was too large to be
taken as a representative index of the
relative strength of parties; but the
present House may be considered as a
fair epitome of the political condition
of the country. There is no good reason
why the Democratic party should not
maintain its present majority in the
House. There is, so far as we can dis
cern, no ground for serious apprehen-
sions that it will be materially dis
turbed by any means that exist now,
and it requires nothing more than
ordinary foresight and prudence in
legislation and in political management
during the remainder of the present
session to prevent the rise of any new
causes likely to produce disaster. The
n0crpfi fi0 nQrfN in oQ10n1pf pfSnp
the probabilities Of retaining control
of the next House, must bear in mind
the important fact that the number of
very close districts now represented
by Democrats is considerably larger
than the figures which express our
working majority. For purposes of
convenience we may classify the pres
ent House under four heads, to-wit: 1.
Districts overwhelmingly Democratic;
2. Districts overwhelmingly Republi-
can; 3. Close districts now represent
ed by Democrats; and, 4. Close dis
tricts now held by Republicans.
The total number.of Democratic dis
tricts is 157, of which 1873 may be
classed as overwhelmingly Democratic
and certain to re-e1ect, while 10 are
close and doubtful. The total number
of Republican districts is 1872, of which
112 show majorities not likely to be
overcome under any circumstances,
while 20 are close and doubtful. The
total Democratic majority in the 10
close districts now held by that party
is 1900, while the total Republican
held by them is $3.50. This brings
us to consider the important fact that
the real struggle for the control of the
next House will be concentrated in 80
districts, in which the aggregate major
tiles of both parties are only 1880,
thus requiring changes of only 1000
votes to effect material alterations in
the complexion of the next House.
That is to say, changes of Z 1000 votes
distributed around through 80 Con-
gressional Districts and among no less
than II States might either overthrow
the present Democratic ascendency or
more than double it, according to the
direction in which the changes might
occur. But, taking the other view of
the situation, we find that the excess
of the aggregate Democratic lnajorities
in the close districts over those of the
Republican party, under the same
conditions is barely 1,22O! The ordi-
nary method of calculation is to aggre
gate the Democratic majorities and
of the Republican majorities, which
process shows that the Democratic
party at large has popular majority
of 3SO,OOO to back it's Congressional
preponderance of twenty-five. But
this is a delusive method of estimat-
ing probabilities, for the reason that
the Republican voting strength is
much more uniformly distributed than
the Democratic strength is in those
districts that are certain one way or
the other. The true basis of calcula-
tion is that employed by us, of grouping
the doubtful districts together and
estimating their probabilities alone.
OF the 90 Republican districts set down
as close and doubtful, all but 2 were
carried by the Democrats in 1874 and
were retaken by the Republicans under
the impetus of the Presidential canvass
in 1876. The Is districts described as
"retaken in 1S76' had given aggregate
Democratic majorities of upwards of
5000 in 1874, and returned to their
Republican allegiance in 1876 to the
tune of 6, 100 majority in the aggregate,
showing changes of little over 1000
votes in Is districts scattered through
8 States. OF the 10 Democratic dis
tricts classed as close II were carried
by the Democrats in 1874 by aggregate
a. ~