The Redwood gazette. [volume] (Redwood Falls, Minn.) 1873-1940, 1878-08-22

race, somewhere about 1000 will be
right, for each of the ten names will
be selected about the same number of
times. Say only 500 are right, which
is far more unlikely than the occur
renee of Dickens wonderful event 1t
first trial. All the remaining 5000
persons have failed. and we hear no
more about them. OF the GOO who
have marked the winner of the chief
race, about one. sixth are sure to select
also the winner of the secOnd-that 10,
about 100 will have this doubtful sue
cess. But say that by q wonderful CO
incidence only sixty are thus successful.
The remaining $40 have failed,
and they Join the 9,4O0 who failed
on the first race. and we hear no more
about them. The sixty left have
each made their selection on the third
race, in which there are only six horses.
1t is to all intents and purposes certain
that several of them will have selected
the winning horse. Let anyone cast q
die sixty times, keeping q record of the
result Cor it will serve equally well to
cast pair of dice thirty times), and he
is certain to find that every face-ace,
deuce. trey, quart. quint and size-will
have shown several times, and most
probably about ten times, but almost
certainly five or six times. So with
sixty who named at random horse
out of six engaged in y race, it is prob
able that about ten will select the win
ner, almost certain that as many as
five or six will, and practically certain
that two or three will do SO. Here,
then, will be certainly two or three.
and probably nine or ten, to whom the
paralyzing coincidence which 50 great
~ astonished Dickens will have &C.
CURED at first trial. When we con-
slider that probably not 10000, but sew
eral hundred thousand, make precise
~ such experiments about every great
race, that there are many great races
in the year, and that gambling on races
has been going ON for very many years,
it will be seen that cOincidences' far
more surprising than Dickens expert
cnce must occur many times each year,
and that more startling "coinci-
dences'' must often have occurred
since racing began. Add to these the
millions of experiments yearly made in
gambling transactions of other sorts,
and also in more or less speculative
business transactions, and we see that
there must of necessity be an enormous
mass of evidence apparently favoring
the belief in luck, lucky persons, lucky
seasons, and so forth. The marvellous
stories (true stories, too,) of men who
at Baden, and Homburg, in the bad old
times, had wonderful runs of luck
(some of them are given in the essay
on "Gambling SuperstitiOns" in my
Bcrderland Of Science) are found,
when thus considered, to be not mar
velous at all. The wonder rather is
that among the multiplied experiences
at rouge ct noir. roulette, and so forth,
still more curious cases have not &C.
CURED, or have not been noted. At .
first view, nothing seems more certain
ly to demonstrate the reality of luck
than the success of those who have sew
eral times "broken the bank" and
have amassed in q short time enormous
sums at the gaming-table. But 80 soon
as we consider that among the millions
who gamble, tens of thousands must be
very successful for while; that, among
these. hundreds must continue to Ne
successful yet longer; and that, among
these hundreds, several must have y
further spell of success, we see how the
stories of great good luck, of amazing
luck, and, lastly, of 'paralyzing
luck, cannot only be explained, but are
necessary consequences of multiplied
experiences.
But the lesson from all this is alto
gether against gambling, apart from
innate immortality. If there were such
u thing as real luck, men might try
their luck in the way Steinmetz' black
leg taught, and, by playing only when
Sc in vein." or abstaining altogether if
they found themselves absolutely un-
lucky by nature, might experience no
great loss. But when it seems that
there is no such thing as luck; that, by
the very nature of gambling transac-
tons. every great winner represents
many losers, while, in the long run, all
the great winners have invariably be-
come great losers (the only lasting sue
cessful men being the blacklegs, high
class and low classl, the utter folly of
gambling is clearly seen--that is to say,
it would be clearly seen if men were
not, in such matters, willfully blinded.
Richard Il. Proctor, IN London Echo.