The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1878-06-10
HOW 1T GREW TO MATURITY
Compact Between Russia
and Germany.
1865 AND ITS REvANCHE.
A Possible Chapter OF Accidents
Yet To Be Written.
MR.. LAYARD'S NEW FRIEND.

LONDON, May 80, 1878.
On July 20, 1880. Partisan LAD comfortably estab-
iishcd himself on the lett bank OF the Seine with
first rate double barrelled gum borrowed for the
stance from the shop window OF fashionable maker,
and was actively firing at the balcony OF the Louvre,
the opposite side OF the river. lie seemed TO have
less practice than good WILL however, for he missed
every shot ''swell" who lettering theroabout,
and who had been for few minutes witnessing these
feeble essays with critical eye (he legend hints
that he an American touris) and who was APP
parcntIy dsgustod at the unsKlfuloess OF the nsur
gent, as last approached him and aid:-.I wonder
how you miss your with such gun, and
such mark before you'll Let me show you the prin-
cples OF the ART" He seized the gun, took aim
fully at gigantic Swiss guara who was in full WOW
in Charles the Ninth's WINDOW, burning away his last
cartridge and fired. The poor fellow ell shot through
the heart and The sswell' returned tho gun
The bewildered lad. ssYou had better keep it..
citoyen,' exclaimed the latter, with genuine admira.
ton; 'such a capital shot as you are" mo, thank
you, exclaimed the other; .'these not my opu-
ions. did II only for the sake OF tho art"
CLIMAX
Something OF the supre ana ferocious scepticism
thus testified would be necessary TO allow OF a lair APP
probation OF the historical period which Is
cnmnate in that porientous attn ough it my hardly
be expected decisive event, tho coming Congress- SO
many problems which stir up the passions of men or
which divide people mixed up with it. It's elements
multiple and SO heterogeneous its
mote and its possible consequences far reaching
and the same time some oil lis factors minute
that consider IL properly is almost ihdispen sable
30 dvost ones SELL SO TO say, from one's time one's
country. one's preferences and even ones private
formation. Don't hear. for example, that even in
tho court OF the Czar there dis
tnct currents OF opinion as well EnglSnd2 Are
there not again IN the English Cabinet two parties,
the bent war at any price and led by The Prime
Minister, with the support OF Viscount Cranbrook
(Mr Claiborne Hardy, the other inclined to compro-
mise guided by the Marquis Of Salisbury Sir
Stafford Northcotef such distinctions OF little
avail at the present moment There are hours In
history IN which such elements drowned in the
general run OF events, and veryhng seems to indi
that we have just oil those mlestonos
OF the age Of "blood and iron.n
THE ROOT OF rHE QUESTION
The Eastern crisis, under preseat shape, may BIO
said to have been reopeucd the Geld OF battle OF
Sadowa There 1t was at least that the question pro-
visIonaly closed by the Treaty o! Paris, again
light after slumber OF precisely ten years and At
time that assed from its "rurkish" 10 It's
sAuslrian" phase. During those ten years, It need
hardly be said, the evolution HAD been broodiug
silently, and the thunder stroke OF Sadowa only
Austria the chief aud historical obstacle to the
accomplishment of the Russian designs the Balkan
Peninsula had long been axiom OF the St. Peters
burg Foreign Office, and the Car Nicholas had once
Expressed the TACT ~ peculiarly picturesque aud
happy way BY sayisS 70 a contia ant:-'Do you know
who aro the two most dsintsresssd princes In his
tory? sobieski AMI J. For we have both saved
viennal" That Eoaiand, single handed, would never
be able to prevent the Russian advance tho South
that France vital Interest the question and
that the crimean mad only been to the eyes oil
the author Of the coup d'ttdt Of December an
occasional s'diversion," were likewise household
words for Muscovte diplomatsls. That there
was incompatibilny OF temper In.
tcrests between Prussia and Russia had long
been acknowledged by both foreign Offices, and IL Is
a sign ncant fact to find In a despatch Count Ncsse
rode, dated DecemUcr 1879, the following remark =:
"fhc plans OF Prussia ready, and tho object OF
her ambition Is vsiIhin her reach. 1t Is not Russia
which will suffer from her designs; $40 viii, on the
her own resolutions."
THE pAssLAvoSic IDEA.
On the other hand, Pansavonianism, IN its politi-
cal bearing and importance, was not an altogether
new clement In 1866 dhe Marquis Wielopolski mad
Tor more than twenty years brought II from It's liter
airy ana vague form to cshnologicai doctrine,
grated on me principle oil nationaiit,es and mat
must 30 noted as weapon against Austria nd re-
ven Tor her bloody repression Of tue Gacian rising
OF ls46. There 10 doubt ttat previous 10
1866 tho several terms OF the following deductions -
up only through tho agency oi Pansavism 10y mere
fore, u rs necessary 10 patrouize Pansavism"-had
impressed themselves tho mind OF Russian states
men. st, Il was only from that date tnai an active
Pansavonian propaganda by tho side OF close
understanding with Pruss1, became tho leading
feature Of tho Russian policy, and both
tsrmned by the catastrophe oil The Austrian hegemony
singulary enough, the lead toward Prnsso-k ussitn
alliance Was taken by the Court OF Berlin. On the
morrow oil Sadowa, Prince linen COUNTY Bismarck
had advised his royal master 10 enter with his
nephew tho Car nto the closest friendship aud to win
him over 10 his site. 1t at nrst slgnt easy
matter Immediately alter the successful RAIDS that tho
Prussian army mad just made on tho possessions OF
many close relations OF tho Car, but the Prussan
Chancellor the cords sefxfbtc 10 aim at ahi TO
touch, when the choice OF General Man,cuiIoi as
the bearer oil tho olive branch was arrived al he
showed once moro that he knew now to send tho
right man 70 The right place with the right argument.
''cdrfc blanche the East Russia against carte
bance ID the wost Tor Prussa was The basis OF tue
understanding
THE FIRST STEP
The Franco-German look place. Tho Gear
abided by his word aud entirely subordinated his
policy TO tho wishes OF aly. Not only did he not
hold out hand 10 PROSTATE France Tut he a. sisted
ply taking his pledge, and no know well that apart
from German rather SCARCE political lux
tne feeling Of mutual rivalry created between France
aud Germany w soro wound in The hsnk Of tue
former. soon Prince Gorischa4on, s.ixing ITO occa-
SION by The torciock, and percciving Win consum-
maze tact the precise point up TO which no might 30
without danger, was able TO donounce tho Treaty Of
PARIS and claim Tho abolition OF The clause relating
10 tho naturalization OF the Black Sea. He would
have gono further at once, he probably shared tho
well known opinion OF Prince Bismarck, VINO SAID
that, al Austria had astonshcd the world by her
gratitude, England would astonish ~ by her coward
ice" Bit the Franco German war had been a lesson
W every BODY, and the necessity oil thorough mill
tary reform was impressed on every mlnd Prince
Gortschakon contentod himself, provisionalys with
Black Sca revision, and The Britain Foreign
0icc, which at hrst had feared worse. had limo 10
breathe.
THE TRIPLE ALLIANCE
No long time. however; Two years had hardly
elapsed when the world WIS startled with tho news,
nrs that the Emperor oil Austria had resolved TO pay
visit to the c0Dqueror oil Sadownt next, that the
three Emperors had met in solemn interview, and,
finally, that they mad entered into mutual under
standing, which at once dubbed the "tripe ALT
ancc" "What on tho earth,n British poticians
asked themselves, .'has decided the Emperor Francs
Joseph 10 take such stepf The reasons oil tue En-
pcror oil Germany aud the Gar are clear enough
But those OF AUSTRIAN Tho reason was simple. Aus
tri hai no confidence In English power or alliance,
and rather than the impending Eastern crisis set
tcd against herself by ncr formidable neghpors sbc
chose to be Wiling party TO the approaching settle