Lexington weekly intelligencer. (Lexington, Mo.) 1871-1887, 1878-10-19
THE PRESIDENTIAL OUTLOOK.
From the st. Louis Republican,

The republicans are making so much
fuss about their success in carving a
pa.try state official or two in OHIO that
there is reason TO believe some of them
have forgotten in their elation over this
barren victory that they have lost, in
bhio and elsewhere, what Is vastly more
important than anything they have
gained. The state elections this fall are
Of most Importance in so far as they de-
termIne the strength OF parties IN the
Eorty-siXth congress- for to great ex-
tent they will decide which party will
have the next president. Hence the
great struggle is ana has been to control
the legislatures which elect the new
senators and to ct majority of the
congressional representatives. 1t is so
certainly fixed already that the new
senate will be democratic by good ma
.jorily that the whole fight this year has
been tor representatives in the house;
and this has been of a two-iold charac-
ter. The first point has been to get a
majority OF all the representatives, so as
to control the house: and in this under
taking the democrats have had such
large success 4 ready that there is little
chance of their failing III the whole
work. They have gained eight repre-
>entatives in the states which have al
ready elected. and when the full returns
are i'll may count nine. while one nation
Al being elected. the republicans have
lost nine certainly, and ten probably.
| The second point in the congressional
| campaign is To gain a majority OF the rep
| rc-cutttiveS IN Il majority OF the states;
and this Is really the great point to be
| made this year. and the one on which
| there IS good reason 10 believe the pres
| liential succession rests. If the demo-
| Gratis have a working ma iorty in the
senate and house they need but this enc
| remaining advantage to hold all the
| cards for il there is by any chance
failure TO elect by the people, and the
choice OF president is thrown into the
| house. the election there is by states,
aud the majority OF a states representa-
| tives decide Tor whom 4 states vote
| shall be cast. Hence the party which
| has Il aiurity of representative from
Il majority OF states might elect the
| president, even though it controlled but
| 4 minority OF the whole vote of the
| house, for Oregon, Colorado and Della
ware, with one vote each, count as much
aS New York or Pennsylvania.
! Tie democrats have secured ma
| iQrity OF the representatives in Ohio and
! possibly in Indiana, both of which be-
long 10 the republicans in the present
congress, and Orth may turn out to be
beaten, Or De La Matyr, the national in
| Indiana. may vote with the democrats; :;
| SO that the chances are all with the DEM
ocrat> rs the thing stands in that state.
Now mark how the situation looks! The
states which have already elected q ma
jority OF democratic representatives, or
are sure to do so, are the following:
Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Flor
ida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana,
Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, North
Carolina, Ohio, Oregon. South Carolina,
Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and West
Virginia.
The republicans on the other hand can
only count Us certain
Colorado. Iowa, Kansas. Maine, Mass
achusetts. Michigan. Minnesota, Ne
braska, Rhode Island, Vermont and
| Wisconsin,.
While the following states may be-
fairly set down as doubtful:
California, Connecticut, Illinois, Indl-
ana. Nevada. New Jersey, New York
and Pennsylvania.
From this it will be seen that the
democrats are certain of eighteen of the
thirty-eight states, and have to gain but
two of the nIue classed as doubtful to
control the presidential choice. On the
other hand the republicans with a GER
tainty OF eleven to start with must gain
all the nine to get the control. The
matter in Indiana is already determined.
and it is certain, whatever else may
happen, that the republicans have not
got control of the delegation in that
state. although until the official count IS
had it is not certain that the democrats
will not have. Hence. ii the republicans
carry the eight doubtful states which
have vet To eject, they will at best be
one short OF the desired majority, and
would only be able to control the cleo
tion by securing the vote OF 1ndiana's 8
solitary national 1t is very easy to see.
however, that there are hundred
chan es that this vote will 90 to the
democratic side to one that it will 60 to
the republican. Meanwhile it is not un-
reasonable to expect that the democrats
will carry more than two OF the doubt
iul states which have yet to elect, tor
California. Connecticut and New Jersey
are fairly certain, while the chances IN
New York and Pennsylvania are very
good, and in Nevada ialr. The battle is
not over yet, but it is so nearly SO that
it is easy TO predict whose will be the