The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1878-04-11
Pence Prob a bIlities.


Peace Probabilities.
Between at least three great European
Powers there is now wonderful unanim-
ity-such unanimity MS has hardly been
seen before in history. They are all agreed
on o common purpose and common
declaration. These Powers are England,
Russia and Austria. Each one is deter
mined to guard its own interests with all
its might and TO care as little Us possible for
the interests of any other, and they are oil
equally agreed to shout that their sole
anxiety is to protect Europe, to protect
political morality, to stand up for the
sacredness Of treaty obligations and the
rights of everybody. Each one asserts its
eagerness to compel other people to be
virtuous, and each one regards the indul-
gence of its own little appetite rs apart
from the great general rules it is prepared
to lay down for the government of the
world; but the disproportion between what
they do and what they declare is more ap-
parent in some than in others. Thus we
hear more of England's virtuous inclina-
tions than we do of the virtuous inclina-
lions of the others-frst, because no doubt
England has more virtue to declare than
other people and more effective means of
declaring it. No person acquainted with
the facts can fail to recognize that England
alone has more virtue than all the rest of the
world together for England has said SO in
thousand ways, and she ought to know.
Just now, moreover, England has the ear Of
the world-at least Of this part Of tin
virtue Of community Of language and
the news system. Her every word is re-
ported to us, while from Austria and
Russia we hear much less distinctly and
deliberately. If, however, greater noise is
made over England's intentions we learn
more Of Russia's acts because for some time
action in the case has fallen mostly to her
share But the issue Of greatest importance
now is whether the unanimity Of these three
Powers can be made convertible. Will
each Power accept as to the government of
its own conduct the views formed by the
other as to what that conduct should be
With the views now held, modified by dis
cussion, they probably will. They will
compromise their differences Russia will
not give up the Treaty of San Steiano for
substitute made by England I; England will
not abdicate her Oriental pretensions and
be left out in the cold, as that treaty would
provide. Russia will make room for Eng
land; England will accommodate herself
to the exigencies of Muscovite neigh
Dor. II naodus rirendi is earnestly
sought it may always be found, and In this
case it will be earnestly sought, because
both Powers have wholesome dread, fear
even, Of the war into which failure to
compromise would plunge them. Russia
would prefer to force her treaty down Eng
lands throat yet, when she considers how
England might stretch out the conflict, and
own financial resources would be. she sees
the unwisdom Of insisting too much. Eng
land also would like to force Russia to sub
NIT in corner. but the difficulty OF sur
an army of half n million men
actually under arms with an army on paper
inclines England to adopt a modest de-
meanor. Hence, through the respective
OF the parties as to war will
result in oil likelihood the preservation of
peace. There may. it is true, be an accident
Russia has great army near Constantinople.
and the Ottomans, under English inspira-
ton and encouragement, are organizing re-
views to faunt military demonstration in
the face of the victor There is the British
fleet in the Sea Of Marmora also, and from
what was said by Lord Derby on Tuesday
it is believed that the British admiral has
fighting orders to act on in a contingency.
With all this infammable material in near
neighborhood some trivial misunderstand-
ing may induce an act Of war. But ifthat
possibility is excluded, if the case remains
in the hands Of the diplomatists till they
have fairly done with it, they will in oil
probability preserve the peace.