The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1878-04-05


desire 70 know, and that he deems IL impossible TO
instituss satisfactory until ne possesses the
necessary information to lead TO correct result he
does not hesitate 10 pronouncs upfavorabiy on the
HERALD system Of predictions aftsr making his "pr
vate INQUIRY"
With regard to the announcement that sshe Arst
actual storm warning received by the Meteorological
Onaoe from the United States was on Thursday. De-
cembsr "a 1874" and that AZ vas sent from The
Central Signai once aud was wordsd as foilows:-'A
low barometer, with wind nny miles hour, LETT our
sunday, iorteth parallel. and going east
Look out Tor IT." Such . message, which scarcely
he called warning and gives no Information as to
tho character Of The storm, was forwarded on the
fourth day alter the Sunday referred 10. Between
that day and the 3lsL or eleven full dayA the
weather wac nne in The British lslauda M SCOTT
calls this "varningn . failure. In what aid It TAM
Nothing was sssayed by the sender that could fall
He informed ~. Scott thar storm centre bad left
the American coast and invited the Meteorological
ONCE IN London to s'look out for H." Tho storm,
however, did reach tho British in any char
acter or within any time that officially recognized
by the once in relation the message How the cir
cumstances In this case support Mr. scott's deduc.
tons is not apparent The general result OF the in
qury is expressed in the declaration "that not
fortynve per cent or the warnings be considered
to be really successful that rs TO say, "the iniorma-
conveyed by them OF real value seamen in
British ports"
Assuming for the present, that tho estimate Of
forty five per correct does not that por.
centage prove somothingr Forty-6ve per cent oil
success Is In strong contrast with Ar SCOTS belief
IN the ,mpossbii.y OF correct prediction from the
United siatea What represented by the foriy-hve
per cent Of success-mere chance or correct predc-
tion based sound principles?
savs ia n q a
ships that bad weather is prevailing at the other side
Of Atlantic at the time they leaving port
here may OF course be useiut" Considering that Tho
"bad weather. or storm travels toward the westward
bound ships the information must be highly important,
but tho HERALD Weather Bureau never limited
locality affected by bad weather TO this western size
OF the Atlanta IL has never conveyed the impress
son, directly indirectly, that the "bad weather"
dd advance eastward IN conformity with the gen.
erai law of s,orm movements the ocean progress Of
the HERALD Weather Bureau give tho progress OF the
s'bad weathern aud the manner iu winch Il 10
perienced by westward bound steamers and other
vessels.
Turning TO tthe actual wording OF the warn,ngs,n
Mr. Scott remarks that the predictions s'are framed
with moro reference TO the conditions of contpen
tai climate. with It's abrupt changes such as prevails
in the United States than to the moro genial crcum-
stances which we 1--we, III an oceanic climate in
these islands" The HERALD Weather Bureau
must therefore be, in Mr. scot.'s opinion,
wholly unaware OF the conditions that pre-
vail in Europe. and particularly in tho British
Islands The ''genial circumstances" Of Sunday,
March "a, IN England very seriously disturbed
by "abrupt ohSnges" In truth, the storm that swept
England caused the sudden and deploraoo loss OF
the Eurydice and her crew OF those disturb
anccs which tho British Meteorological Office not
the habit OF anticipating Tho fact that the HERALD
Weather Bureau warned England SIX days before the
arrived affords strong proof that something is
known in America about English weather As to the
heavy rams Mr. Scott says 10 always safe to predict
them .as all seasons" Curiously enough ne takes
occasion TO show IN his tabular analysis Of tho
HERALD predictions that long periods OF dry weather
occur IN England Would u have been sale TO pre-
dict rains under such circumsi asCasf
But Mr.. Scott qualities what he has already ad
mtted IN favor Of the HERALD predictions ana sug-
gests:-it must not be forgotten mat the fact Of
gale being reported ON the Gay for which one has
been foresold does not necessariiy prove tnat the
gallo felt here has been the same storm ~ lett tho
American coast" This 10 only putting the 'mposs-
bility" argument IN another form. or course, II It
impossible that the storms Cross the ocean aud
preserve their identity they cannot reach England AS
they lett America But from tho tact thai they do
and preserve their Henti,y, and have
been traced from coast line 10 coast line, the gales due
20 them IN England arc caused by the same disturb-
ance that similar gaIcs IN America Mr.. Scott
again coDfounds the gale with the storm, the effect
with the cause but probably means the latter when
no refers 10 the disturbance crossing inc ocean,
He cannot understand how the storm centre OF Feb
ruury 49, ls77 coming from the northward over ngand
can that announced as leaving the Amer
coast He says, "rhe presumption rs that came
90 us from the noghborhood OF Iceland" But he
admits tho impossibnity OF tracing storms westward
or IN any direction the Brush coasts. as scien
tiac be is not jus fled in any sspresump-
sion" about their courses. IL happens. however
that the very movement he PROCESSES not to UNDER
stand mas long ago been fully accounted Tor in tho
records OF the HERALD Weather Bureau, and was ex-
planned to N. lie yerrier IN a communication with
.irom the nolghborhood oil Iceland" the region OF
It's origin but general northeasierly course from
Ncwfound land, and preceded and folowcd
by areas OF high barometer, between which a
great unduaton OF Their zone line occurred
In which the storm centre moved. Wren
IL reached atil udoa ttlo northwestwa scotland
ADD between that country and Iceland high pres
sure III advance OF II extended rapidly over Norway
and Sweden and tue Baltic. while tue behind
coded southwark slowly, TO direct the ovemcnt
OF he storm centro toward the and heast and
the movement Of tnis storm the Influences
OF storm centres that preceded and followed Of
February 10, 1877. Mr.F scott claims 'ahat the cy-
conen Of July 10, (which occurred The very day
Tor winch predicted, did not come from
Atlanuc ., all, but was formed over these lslsnds.n
Referring to the eight A. NJ. Official bulletin OF the
British Mctcorolos ca Once published IN the London
Tunes LEICESTER o. Events" Tor July H. the follow
ing statement is found:--"Prcssure is highest
over tho Peninsula lowest of our northwest
coast, and there seems 10 DO do
prcssion approaching our western stations from tho
Atlantic" ON the IAN the oiicial bulletin eays:--
.Tne barometer continues TO Tall steadily the
United Kingdom and France, ou, Is risiug little In
the uli Of Bolhna sweden II remains lowest to
tho westward OF our island.n On the 18TH "a large
and well defined Daromctrical depression 10y
north OF England this morning aud pressure was
ctsaslng IN ali parts OF Western Europe" On tue
fg,n l7th ana Ism tnis ceulro moved from