The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1878-11-19
Mr.. Gladstone On the Prospects of his
Party.

party In England, the proof Is supplied by
Mr. GLADSTONE in the current number Of
the Nineteenth CENTURY. From the partial
elections Of the past two years he attempts
10 dcducc n hopeful augury, but the facts
bear upon their face very different CON
structiou, and irreslstlby point to nm unfa-
vorable conclusion.
I'm some Of the magazine articles to whose
production the British ex-Prcmlcr has Of
lato applied himself, and notably In the
paper called "Kin Beyond sea-" the dcduc-
tIons were logical, only the premises hap
pcncd to be defective and erroneous In the
present instance the data are accurate
enough, but the application Is unfortunate
and fallacious. If any man is convcrsant
with the lessons ~ Parliamentary history
since the Reform act. IL is Mr.. GLADSTONE;
and there Is no doubt that what are called
In England by-clcctiuns. or elections to I'M
vacancies, do constitute, rs he says, an au-
thentic key 10 the movement of the public
mind. Each Of tho great rcvcrsals OF
popular power such as the displacement OF
the Wings by Pcclites. and the successive
alterations of the PALMERsroN and DERBY
Ministries, was prciaced 10y significant pho
nomena in tho shape OF sporadic electoral
contests, In which the keen observer detected
the shifting of the current, the muttcring Of
the storm. This was signally the case with
tho last Parliament, which opened with
Liberal majority Of one hundred and twelve.
while for some two years after the general
election the impetus seems to have been UNI
spent, rs was shown by the winning Of some
additional seats. But in 1870 the tide turned,
and tho majority Of the vacancies
a IL -.
Is especially noteworthy, II those
facts are to be compared with present ind-
cations, the movement was progressive, tho
Conservative gains increased in arith-
metlcal ratio, and the numbcr Of seats Sc
cured in the last twelvcmonth before DISCO
luton was nearly equal to the sum OF the
accessions in the two preceding years. 1t
was certain, therefore, that the Govern
ments discredit was growing cumulative
force, and it required but u simple calcula-
tion by the rule OF three to forecast its
downfall at the general election.
All this Is true enough, but when the Liberal
leader undertakes 10 deduce the triumph OF
his party from the gain OF a few seats since
1874, we cannot possibly admit the two cases
to be parallel. For what is the precise ex-
tent Of change in the public mind, and at
what date-for that is the crucial test-did
1t occur? About seventy places have been
contested in Great Britain and ireland
during the last four years and half, and
the net result is balance Of three seats
and no more TO the Liberal side. But Mr..
GLADSTONE would not have us reckon
the earlier elections in the halcyon
days OF the present Ministry, but
insists upon starting with 1876, when
the Eastern question began 10 tell
actively upon public opinion. There is no
doubt that in that year the Liberals sue
ceeded in wrestling seven seats from their
opponents, and lost but one Of their own
Naturally the movement was expected to
assume moro striking proportions during
the following twelve months but as n mat
ter Of fact, it signally lost ground. In 1877
the Liberals won but two votes, and a
moicty Of this trivial gain was offset by a
Conservative success in the Borough OF
Wilton. Finally, in the present year. with
a general election only eighteen months
away, Mr.. GLADsToSE's party have carried
but two seats lately occupied by their rivals,
while on the other hand they have lost one
borough in England and a county in Ire
land. In word, while they can point 10
residual gain Of seven seats, mostly ac-
quired in 1876, at present their numerical
advance has been entirely stayed, and that
great uprising Of the people which at one
time seemed impending must be held, SO far
as electoral contests are fair symptoms, 10
have been stricken with paralysis.
Now. il these data mean anything, they
obviously imply the contrary of Mr.. GLAD
STONES inference. Whatever may have
been the state OF the public mind in 1876 and
"A part Of the following year, when conserya-
tive councils We're divided, and Lord
DERRY and Lord CARNARvON took an
attitude distinctly hostile to the Prime
Minister, 1t Is clear that the feeling
OF discomfort and alienation soon died
away upon tho reconstruction OF the
Tory Government, and was certainly not
displaced by any widespread disposition TO
trust tn, Liberals in office. In a word, the
popular movement ongcndercd during the
discussion o. the Bulgarian outragcs is
proved by the ex-Premer's electoral facts
TO be rather tle casual reiluence Of wave,
than a decisive ebbing Of the tide. We are
far from affirming that Englands existing
complications and the doubt which over
shadows the final outcome Of her diplomacy
ties and even the acknowledgment Of the Con-
seryatiye party, We are only dealing with
Mr.. GLADsToNE's prognostics from data Of
his own choosing and we are bound TO say
that the authentic volco Of tho English peo-
pie, as expressed in recent elections, is di-
cmetrlcally counter to his conclusions and
desires.
There Is another source from which Mr..
GLADSTONE draws encouragement, but, as it
seems to us, with even less show Of reason,
He points out that at the by-elections Of
the past three years the Liberals poled
considerable majority of the votes, and in
fers that reasonable amount Of organlza-
ton and party discipline would insure a
sweeping victory. He does not otto any
indications that British Liberals are learn
Ing to subordinate local and sectarian
ends to imperial objects, but takes it
for granted that they will do 50 ut
the next general election, on broad
principles Of propricty and wisdom.
In fact, however, the symptoms are all tho