The Hickman courier. [volume] (Hickman, Ky.) 1859-current, 1878-05-03
WILL THERE BE WAR >
/ he Probabilities Of War Between the Whale
and the Elephant

lLozdon Correspondence n. Y. nmes.l
The divergence is great, and the prob
abilities of ompromise aredaily lessen
ing, although so long as the cannon has
not spoken out, there remains a hope
that some solution may be found which
will render possible the meeting of con-
gress, If not Immediately, atleast at some
future day Logically, England is right,
but Russia has the doctrine of accom-
plished facts" in her favor, and it is
great deal to expect much concessions
after so many sacrifices. Another point,
which seems to be overlooked generally,
is that the Russians do not believe that
.Epgiand means serior.sly ts'silso 70 wAr IN
\ order to secure more advantageous terms
to the sultan, and at St. Petersburg
| every one is convinced that the British
government only seeks the complete
dismemberment of the Ottoman empire,
in order to OBTAIN good share OF booty
for itself. Still, preparations are being
made to meet every eventuality. The en-
gineers are placing the Black sea coast in
a state of defense, and are working
actively in the NicOlaiew arsenais, at the
construction of submarine vessels of
new model, while analogous measures are
noticed along the Baltic and particularly
at Helsingfors, where the twenty-third
division of the army, now placed on a
war footing, will replace the guard regi-
ments. who have been recalled to St.
| Petersburg.
The war, should it come, will be lo3g
and slow. England is not in a position
either to beat Russian armies on the
battlefield or 10 take Russian armies on
the battle field, or to take Russian fort
resses. But she can keep Russia in a
chronic state of uneasiness as to the
security of position which, constantly
ieopardized, will finally become unten-
able. Her strategy will be to wear out
Russia in men and money by a war
which, without exposing herself TO any
serious losses, she can prolong as lorg as
may be necessary to ruin her enemy.
As Prince Bismarck has wittily OBJ
served, at will be q duel between a
whale and an elephant and it is
difficult to see how adversarias /.
SO dissimilar can get at each /
other To continue the meta /
phor, | will venture to remark /
that the whale can considerably bother
his adversary, who will be forced to
iemain inert, but in arms, on terra frD1a,
where, according to all the dispatches .
from the east, he is already suffering
terribly from typhus and other epidem-
les. The warm season is approaching,
and Russia will be obliged to. concentrate
at certain points large masses Of troops,
who can not sojourn there indefinitely
nor with impunity. Thanks to the
fgn,Ipsrse,sg1aey 3 4 Of the British navy, the whole
uuSsfdh OossG auAs11.~ l.. /
gusATd aRainst expeditions whose object
I've Will always be Ss.ts.ssa, <sor.-lsa -5s.Ssl.. /
forces must be kept ready. So far as the
loss of men is concerned, Russia has
nothing to fear. She can always fill up
the gaps in her regiments, but will she
always have sufficient money, or suffi-
cient credit TO compensate for her finan-
cial losses? This is Russia's weak point,
and England's strong point, and in this
consideration lies the best chance of an
eventual compromise. England counts
upon time as a powerful ally, and it is
easy to foresee that she will be
in no hurry 10 declare war. She
will not take the first step, but
will give Eussia every chance
to find c1s,ts 6eIE. According to
recent news, the Turks have been in
duced by Russia to demand the with
drawal OF the British feet from the Mar
mora, and have received as an answer
that Admiral Hornby would leave his
anchorage as soon as the Russians should
evscuate the vicinity of Constantinople,
but not before This demand will prob
ably be renewed, with a repetition of the
same reply, and sooner or later this Incl
dent win bring about definite rupture.
The irst act OF the drama will be the
of the English at Gallipo-
Ii, and the occupation of the Turkish
capital by Grand Duke Nicholas. The
latter is not far from Boulair, but, with
his enemy's vessels on either side of the
narrow peninsula OF Gallipoli, he will
scarcely risk an attempt against posi-
tion which he could not continue TO hold
Along the Bosporus he will be more ad
vantageously placed, buteven here there
will be the constant danger of disem-
barkation to the west, and of lombard
ment OF Constantinople by the fleet and
from the forts on the Asiatic side. Again,
should the passage into the Black sea be
forced, and British vessels be able to
act on the Russian lines of COM
the consequences will
be very serious. BOurgas and Varna
may be taken, and in that case the Rus
slams will be entirely isolated from their
base, while their most fertile provinces,
and most active arsenals and DOCK yards,
will be at the mercy of the enemy. Such
will probably be the opening military
events, succeeding each other with start
lung rapidity, but these advantages once
gained, there will be temporary apparent
lull in the storm, and. for the reasons
already given, England will leave time
to do his work of exhaustion
And what harm can the elephant do
to the whale? at first sight one is
tempted to say none; but is India en-
tirely loyal to her Empress, and will not
Russia attempt something in that direc.
ton? The European press ridicules the
idea, and asserts that England has no
fear of any such eventuality, except it
may be in the far distant future, for will
not her enemy be finished up in Europe
before she can think seriously OF
Asia? 1t is agreed that such an
would demand forces needed
elsewhere, would require time and
But who can tell il that
has not been already made =?
Russia's statesmen are not in the habit of
acting Ike bull in china shop. They
must have long foreseen the probabilities
Of an eventual conflict with England, and,