The New Orleans daily Democrat. [volume] (New Orleans, La.) 1877-1880, 1878-10-11
PARTY CALCULATIONS.
TUESDAYS ELECTIONS AND THE NEXT
HOUSE.
VvEsat the Democratic Managers mt wash
Hugten Hoped FoF-fH0w n Gain of One
mr. Tyv0 Members would Affect General
weamIfs-anEne safe Figuring.

hut four States hold their elections next Tues
day. and Of those two may be discounted In ad-
vance-one as normally Republican and the
either Democratic. with about three chances in
$he former case to two In the latter of serious
threads by the Greenbaekers upon
rHE REGULAR pARTF STRENGTH.
We may therefore dismiss Iowa and West Vir-
pinja from the calculation with the simple re-
mark that whatever the Greenbackers do In
either State will be net loss to the Republicans.
without corresponding gain to the Democrats
In one and Uice versa In the ether,
The real pivot upon which the fate OF the can
vass will turn ID composed Of the States OF In
diana and Ohio. Here there Ia ample field for
experiment as to the effect Of the Greenbaek
movement upon both parties In a square con
test for supremacy. No such test has been AZ
forded bY The elections held thus far. In
Maine and Vermont 1t was simply question Of
cutting down Republican representation with
ont the least possible chance Of building up
Democratic strength. All the handful of Demo-
Gratis had to do therefore. In either State was to
pIump their votes where they would do most
harm to the Radical party--and they did 1t Of
feetuafy
In Colorado there was nothing like test Of
tta average strength Of the Greenhack move
ment MS an intermediary power between the
Ayo parties, because the election there turned
largely on local questions, or ut least railroad
combinations. which circumstances made local
questions. Moreover. there was never any real
1reenbaek movement in Colorado among the
masses Of the people as there is In the Eastern
ana Misaissippi Valley States for Colorado iE 9
rninine community. and the chief product OF
fha state In the natural antidote OF paper money
theories There was never ,,nargt,p1 OF over 7oQ
least that faction of the Republicans who, are
anrneering things for Grant IN 1e89-thinklng
that perhaps the House Of Ha.eprefasenttatives
mI,aaad that the vote Of Colorado. counting rs
much Id presidential tie rs that Of
NEW yoRK OR PENNSYLVANIA.
would be worth buying IN advance. So they
sent Gen Ed McQ3ok z cut ee wh v eneW vgap o
h mn1 k for beiford as II they had been Texas
steers or Santa Fe mules.
free flEht In the most approved Donnybrook
sense II the word. .s still fair one. and there
never was q better ILLUSTRATION Of every fellow
Tar himself d. the devil take the hindmost"
4 shall not weary YOU with speculhtions upon
matters which will .hnye become events by the
tlme ths is printed shall merely p2 9 out
eyents viii be. The Democratic party Is fight
ing to hold It's own. which is to retain
4,oHrRoL or THE HOUSE or REPRESENTATIVES,.
Jt has margin Of twenty two, seats to go on,
and Ii It loses these no matter whether they are
no matter whether the Republicans gain abso-
lutte control or the G.reenbackers obtain the
balance o IN ether ege case to u IS pem
fhirty-three members Of Congress. In the
present House their Joint delegation embraces
Twelve Democrats and twentyane ftepuoieaha
members from the two States it will appear that
they have held their own. and whatever strength
tractea from the net Republican strength,
though nothing added to the Democratic. II
such proves to be the twill be evident that
Democrats are not developing any progress
and in a Revolutionary time like the present
standstill augurs about as III as ret reat. But
IF tIe Democrats improve upon their present
Joint representation of twelve members from
HE two States, that will mean that they are
deriving positive advanafEEe 9m he ehnos
Tendencies Of the period sap The r9so 's ESQ Of
ocrats elect thirteen members Il will show net
gain OF one In thirty three or three per cent OF
the whole; If fourteen the gain will be Blk per
cent and II fifteen 1t will be nine per cent. In
other words add three per cent for every mem
Democrats elect In the two States OF
INDIANA AND oH1os
Ana van have the exact rate OF the probable
nav. almost infallible increase Of their strength
in the next House
There every hason to 6ee be thav t1e ey jazz
her States of least all the Northern States which
wholly or IN PER- r te Two
hackers, skirmishing between. The Northern
States holding November elections that may be
fins termed "in dispute are Massachusetts,
New YORK, Pennsylvania ILLINOIS and Wiseon-
sin: and these, leaving, out the metropolitan
districts OF New York, city, which are never In
from Ohio and Indiana SO far as the relations Of
the three organizations to each other are con-
cerned.
It IL not necessary 70 discuss possible eleo-
that organization absolute control, for no such
possibility Is even claimed by the RADICALS
themselves since they heard from Maine. Tho
noint rea ~ ct Issue. then, Is between the Dem
ocrats to hold the control they already have.
and the Greenbackers to cut down the Demo
cratic representation sufficiently to give them
THE BALANCE OF POWER
II, therefore, any nominaly Democratic dis
frct In Ohio or Indiana is lost to, us by the
election of areenbacker, that will be SO much
of an Indicate that the latter arc going to get
the balance Of power and will unaueetionably
fs ne BS the De- sRew
gain-evsn If 1t be no more than one member
that result will demonstrate to sensible Green,
backers that they are wasting their votes. and
viii unauestionably cause very considerable
number of Thorn to return to their former party
allegiance la November. :,
guess work of casual newspaper correspond
ents and uniformed politicians. will tell you
exactly what
THE DEMOCRATIC MANAGERS
son the ground hoor"John Thompson, Black
burn, Senator Barnum ct al,-have been calcu-
lnting on:
The redistric'ing Of Ohio changes the basis
OF calculation In that State, 50 that instead OF
reckoning on eight certain ind possible ten
M under the old system of districts-the Radi-
cal gerrymander~our managers now reckon
on q sure eleven and possible fourteen Eight
would be holding our own, calculating upon
the basis Of the present House. but with the
new districts less than eleven would be rela.
tive-not an absolute.-loss. Indiana being un.
changed ms to districting. our managers have
set their minimum at electing four members
which is just holding their own, and their maxi
mum at seven which Is gain of three out O
thirteen. or q substantial 25 per cent on the
whole delegation. II we elect eleven in Ohio
and Ave III Indiana which. by the way. is the
figure that have got quietly jotted down in the
lower left-hand corner of the last page in my
private memorandum book. we shall have
gained four members out Of thirty three. ant
The indication will be that of
A DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY OF OVER FORTY
in the next House. If we elect only fifteen il
fhe two States it will indicate that we are hold