Public ledger. [volume] (Memphis, Tenn.) 1865-1893, 1877-01-12
sEEArORIAL PROBABILITIES.

sEHATORIAL PROBABILITIES.
Under this heading we ind 10 an Ava
lanche special from Nashville this signi-
fcant s%entsuce: The Republicans
hold the election in their hands and will
doubtless elect Il senator, when their
vote will do So" The sditor of the Ava
lanche is in Nashville, and this expires.
sion is no doubt the result Of his obser-
vAtions. We urged a caucus at first to
avoid just such q danger, complication
and delay as has arisen. The Democratic
vote is split into stubborn factions, none
OF which are much stronger than the
quiet, reserved force of the Republicans.
When the contest becomes more heated
and feeling runs high, the latter will bein
position to elect not a Republican but
the Democrat Of their choice. That this
choice will be Senator Key we have never
doubted for a moment. The man who
could bring himself to believe upon any
moral, mental or political hypothesisthat
il was bis duty to vote with Morton for a
partisan Radical measure naturally en-
dears himself to the Republican party.
They regard him as q nan of
outcome, who if sent back to the senate
may be Of service to the Republicans
again at some critical time when a
Democratic vote is needed. Voting for
Horace Maynard is all a blind. 1t will
require ifty-one votes to elect, provided
every member votes. When Key re
ceives thirty Democratic votes he can
depend on twenty one Republicans to
come over in a body aud elect him
Then we wouli see one-6fth of the legis-
lature out.genersl the other four-6tths.
Mr.. Keys vote thus far is small; it wal
only ten on the last ballot yesterday.
Two Of these, to our surprise, csms ircm
Shelby county; the others mostly from
his own vicinity. How any Democrat
a indorse his errstic political course
in the senate is more than we profess to
understand. he has upon more than
n important occasion placed himself
outside Of and in antagonism with his
party. He is rather too young in poll
tics aud the public service to make such
an experiment. Greater men than be is or
eses will be have tried it aud failed, ard
alterward had to look to the other side
for aid and comfort. We believe in
a large degree Of individual independ-
ence within parties, but when a great
leader deserts bis friends TO illustrate
his independence it is time for them to
look about for another. Such a man,
however sincere aud veil meaning, has
considerable assurance to ask these
same people for an Endorsement which
will afford him further opportunities to
cross the fence and shake hands pi,h the
opposite party. The opinion seems to
prevail at Nashville that General Bate
does not rally to-day he will fall out of
tbs race. Then the question arises,
where will his strength 90? Certain
political considerations might carry a
portion Of it to Key, or any East Ten
nessee candidate, 10 make a vacancy
and q certain thing Of it for some Mid
die Tennessee man next time. Turney's
strength may 90 the same way. a seat in
the United States senate is a prizs that
mea will work for for half q lifetime.
Those who fail now look four years
ahead. So we take it that Mr.. Key viii!
pick up q few votes. Hence it may hap
pen that the contest will be narrowed
down between Bailey and Key. If tue
latter gains over bis present vote it win
be on account Of the Influences Just in
dictated. Still we cannot think that he
s'Rods any chance Of "a election Ia a
Democratic legislature. l. he should be
elected, then che tWsnty-Ons Republicans,
voting with thirty Democrats, will have
defeated the remaining lOFtyrniHe Demo.
Gratis.