New-York tribune., 1877-10-29
ESTIMATES AND INFERENCES.
CONDITION on TIE VABIOCs ORGkNIziHONS-IH7
VOTES WHICH THEY CONTROL


VOTES WHICH THEY CONTROL
Estimates are making on all sides as TO the
strength OF the variou organizations which opposed
60 Tammsuy Hall in The present canvass lt sNery IN
cut 10 ud any two persons who fully agree as 10 tho
votes which be pood hut all the best informed poll
tcians believe that the contest for local officers on tho
county ticket certain bc very close The reSstra
ton shows 1889 votes registered The natural loss
will make the vote about $4,000. and all calculations
ar based the expectation OF this number OF votes
bong cast. Vc,y few Tammanr men estimate the Tam
many the state ticket NJ over 10000 and nome
has claimed than 900 fivOrot the local county
ticket. II will require vote Of 10000 to carry Tam
many througa its local ticket, sud this VIII leave IL
majority Of less than 10000.
The contendng organizations are os follows:
Ser-YorE Democracy lBiyDy H4rtl
Independent Democracy lGretn
Tammany. German independents lOttenooilei'I
Utited WOrEngineh
Brcad-Nnuers.
Tarnmany las q strong aud compact organization, IT'S
LEADER John Kelly having absolute dcatoria power In
order "a hrins out the entire Democratic vote, tho Tam
many Hall General Committee increased last year
by one-hslf snd has 100 active working poll
tcans in its organization Each OF these has special
duties assigned him n this canvass aud his political
future depend. upon the he displays and the sue
cess he attains. At no time except last year "heh
Tiden directed the operations Of this i'm
so thoroughly organized rs at present The
several organizations I'D opposition unfortunately,
not as united aud earnest their opponents There Is
unqueSonably great apathy the part Of the regular
Republican organization, and no funds have been col
lected from tor the expenses OF The cam
paign. The usual levy the Custom House and Post
Office has this year been entirely omitted. The Republi
can machine is utterly d,oiuted. The New-York De-
mocracv Familiarity Known the Anti Tammany organ
ization is in good working order and there Is more
unity o1 feeling among its various leaders, such as
Bixby Hart shafer aud others, than is apparent in
any other organization Andrew H. Green's organization
i coluUac bt very small Ojtudorler and OitcrhpuIg
have their Germans wei IN hand and there Is strong
feeling tbe part q the Gcrmlns ms year aSanst
Tsmmany Hall chiefly ON account OF the excise meas
ures Tor which they mold Idnlnany responsible iAe
Indfreulcn; Republicans tGe United Norkingmon aud
the Brc d-Wuu5rs are Of htc practical value, and Il
Tammauy defeated will be by the four principal or
he contest tais year closely resembles the local
struggle OF 1870 than any othI OF "le year, Dut the
conditions not hv means the same as when Idu
many that election signailv overthrow -
thai year Demo cratic vote fen of TO about JlOoO
willie tlc RepunHcan and autiTammany vote ran up to
77,OOO great deal of cXcenc1t and indisnation pre-
vailed a. that time ag0iust he lalmany Hal qrsanlIa
ti0u. ald party feeling ran very h%h m iaTot q" Recorder
Hacket and others whom Tammaiy had refused to nom
mate This feeling eN'ts ths wear 20 some tl, uui
j. by 10 means strong rs IN 1870. John Kelly mas not
iHsted upon throwing aside any candi"ielor Wh"l' as
IN the case OF HacAehty eo- t'e.'Dt Il lio !I
Of the public Among ecasse' when usuaiy supi0I
1amnauY Han. there is much feeling as ~ the effect OF
The Consttutional Amendnehts ana IaHm,,Hl i,aueis
have adroitiy led The people 10 believe that they are
tutonal Amendments The cry Of dsirnchng the poor
man has been raised by Iammany Han WITH consider
ingmen 10 vote its ticket. TaIumany has been over
thrown $50 or three occasions whtn popular iteius
aud Indignation aroused, and there is some hope
that viii be beaten on TINS occasion; INT G ca!cut-
ZION from the present situation leads only the cOuclu-
6i1n that the contest IS to DE very close one
J. H. Johnson, of the Republican State Committee. es-
The utmost or this number he thinks the Rcpuplcaus
will pol $4,000, the anii-l lanimany and Independent
Democrats. 0muy 10000 ana te Germans ana WORK
iu.mcn 600, which would make total ~ S3,OOO As
he added tn Iammauy vote would not be over 3d.,
OOO il il clear that Hr. johnson was Ia error III some
way i'm stating the total vote.
prominent and active Republican, holding an in
portaut ssioncrsp ~ Toe city, estimated thc he-
publican $4,000 aud the strength OF thc rest Of
the anti -iamnanJ organizations ~ 2oOOO making to
tai OF 900 the opposition vote 10 Tmnany Han.
lie believed that the local contest any event would be
very close Ira Shater. ono OF the most enthusiastic
leaders Of the antl ammauy organization. saague
enough 10 eve that the autiIammauy and I'D pom
Gent Democrats cOud poll 10000 votes AID the RepUpl-
stl more, While the Germans would 9ave from 1900
10 10000 This would leave supnosng toe entire Tcl--
torod vote was pollcd, margin Of about 10000 for
Jammany
OtcndOrfer, wei as hs own. sud that the German
vote against Iammany would reach 10000 2t least and
IqeS Stg gg IIuiSt bc relied ON tor ,n oDno,S % oi
ei5ose'ns'' @ - l5 - TI oyti @ ,,,aI ,i II "
would poll from 1000 TO $1,000 votes. The
Bread winners League T VA ,io1 nos 4" maeh hu
ont their FUN strength In the city. amounting 70
10000 votes. The aggregate opposition 70 Iammany
would this reckoning amount 10 10000 yOtos. Ia
1875 the combined opposition 10 Tammnny was 10000
10 would require 5000 votes to defeat Tammany
tins year and they pretty well assured. Ano-
ther German believed that Mr. Engcrs estimates were
TOO large The Opposition 10 the Municipal Amendments
must taken into consideration, and would Operate
J"In WoTrssry declared thai Tar,many would he COM
petey routed. He thought hat than 10000 votes
needed Al the same time be considered the recent sita.
tion concerning The Municipal Amendments l-tmed aud
hJudlcious-
nrs ,rrf r1tsT