The Rock Island Argus. (Rock Island, Ill.) 1877-1885, 1877-04-30
Monday. April 80. 1877.
From The NetO York World.
The War and it's Outlook,

cause of civilization. Historically speak
ing the Turks had a long start OF the
Russians 10 the matter OF social and pollt-
ical enlightenment; and 1t is at least an
open question whether the masses OF the
Muscovite population have or have not as
vet overtaken the heirs of the Byzantine
Empire. The xvowed object OF the Russian
government in the conflict is not to i'm
prove the civilization of Turkey, and there
is nothing in the present condition of
Poland which especially encourages the
hope that Russian occupation OF Euro
pean Turkey would be speedily followed
by wide diffusion there of what we re-
gard in west as the chief blessings OF civil
lied life.
The matter most interesting to Ameri-
cans at this stage of the Russo Turkish |
conflict is TO ascertain whether the war is |
or is not likely to lead to wider Euro |
pean struggle, involving countries with |
which we have more extensive relations. |
If it leads to such struggle it is obvious |
that the United States may profit by it in
many different ways; through a prob
able increase of emigration 10 this side
of the Atlantic; through an in
creased demand in Europe for our
agricultural staples and for certain kinds |
distrust of European securities which can
scarcely fail to be awakened among Euro |
pean capitalists and investors by general
perturbation OF the European political sys
tenn, If it tails to lead to such struggle
our interest in it will be mainly sentimental
and speculative, though the sentiments it
will enlist will be among the deepest, and
the social and political specu!ations it will
set afoot among the most important, which
can stir the public mind.
The question whether this war shall be
local or a general war will be answered in
the campaign which has now begun. We
can hardly expect with the London Spec
tator that the world will learn within
fortnight" how this first campaign will 60.
But General Fadeeff, in his opinion on
the eastern question" estimates that if
Russia can get 250, 900 men to the Danube,
100000 OF them will reach Constantilople,
Austria remaining neutral in single cam
pagn; and assuming this opinion to be
correct, we may reasonably count on learn
ing within month whether Russia can
get 100000 men to the Danube. Her
army, as at present modified on the Rou-
manian frontiers, consists, according to the
best information attainable. of about 2lO,-
900 men, assent led at distance of about
400 miles from the Danube. 1t is not at
all clear yet whether this army can count
upon any effective assistance from a Rou-
mauian contingent; nor indeed is it clear
that Germany, which is all-powerful
with the ruler Of Roumania, really de-
sires Roumania to render Russia such as
sistanco. From the Roumanian frontier
to the Danube the Russian forces must be
moved along a single lice of railway, This
is a single track railway, laid with curves
as sharp as any known on our cheap
western lines, and it is not possible to
send long trains over it or to move over
it at any high rate of speed, Competent
persons estimate its transportation capa-
city at 1000 men a day, SO that it will
require at least ten days to concentrate
two Russian army corps at Giurgevo on
the Danube. At least another week must
be consumed in sending forward the arul-
lery and the army train, so that it is not
probable that any attempt can be made
by the Russians to cross the Danube in
force at Clurgevo under three weeks time.
If the rest of the Russian army of invasion
is moved in two separate bodies upon the
Danube to reach that river, one 10 the
vicinity of Braiow for the purpose OF
crossing it into the Dobrudscha, and the
other to reach it at HiTsova, joining there
the force in the DObrudscha, the Russians
may be expected to be i'll IA position to
attempt the concentration for a decisive
battle in Turkish territory not of 100000
but Of 100000 men at the end of not less
than a month from to-day,
In the mean while what will the Turk
be doing?
Recognizing the difficulty of crossing tn,
no,,,hn ka Prua1ors in
paigns have traversed it at its mouth, il
1909 at Galatz, in 1928 at SatunovO, b!
pontoons and bridges Of boats. 10 the lat
ter case, however, it should be borne il
mind that the invasion was in effect MA
riDe invasion and the Black Sea the bas
of operations and supplies. Greig's fee
vlctualled the army, crossed men, mum
tions aud artillery, and even took the con
siderable fortress Of Sizepoli. The advan
tage Of the command of the Euxiue rest
this time with Turkey. Ii the Russians un
dertake to repeat the experiment. beside
the disadvantages of starting from tn
lower shore, with its unhealthy and dithcul
marshes, and of having the full stress o
the current between its last islands an(
the Turkish bank, they will be subject t
formidable opposition from the Turkish
gunbOats, and liable to attack In flank ant
rear by troops Landed from the feet. Ii
front is the strong line of the railroad be
hind the wall of Trajan. from Kustendj
to IchernavOda. connecting the Black Sci
and the river, some thirty-six miles il
length. Won Moltkes estimate. on re
viewing the campaign Of 1898 9, wal
that by crossing at Hirsova with l20.00t
men, leaving 10000 to invest Silistria
as many before Varna and 10000 as
corps dObSerUdtion before Schumla, i
would not be impossible FOR the remaining
$4,000 men to cross the Balkans
having as base the Black Sea ports
This very essential element nj the base
lacking a fact which makes it necessary t,
revise the whole calculation.
On the other hand the Russians. VIII
have hitherto found attacks OH Bulgaria b,
way of the Lower Danube Improbable
might take the more roundabout way of al
advance by the west through Serbia. Tn
Danube forms the Roumauo-S Serbian iron
tier for some thirty miles below the Aus
trian line, and at Glabowa there remain
some ruins Of bridge built by Traian, in
dicating an available point of passage
ln this connection it is worth remem BERN.
that inthe last French campaign the Ger
mans placed much dependence on the line
Of the old Roman military roads, ant
found them TO lead intallibly to advauta
geous fordg and crossings. To this plat
there are two objections. The eastern
districts OF Hungary and Transylvani;
here form salient angle, commandin,
Little Wallachia, and giving tie Austro
hungarian forces II position of immeus
advantage whenever Austria choosps n