, 1877-06-29
Wheat.

w neat
The edge of the mania for speculating
in wheat having been taken of by the
break in the market, which has brought
considerable losses to oveI-sanguine op-
orators, it seems to be proper time to
consider calmly the prospects of the mar
ket for the future. The causes which will
,operate to make an advance in the price
of wheat, and keep it up, are:
1.-The entire withdrawal of our great
competitor, Southern Russia, from the
lists, aad consequently our being called
upon to make good the deficiency. 1t is
calculated that this will require about
100000 bushels of grain, corn and
wheat-equal to about 7,1Oths of our av-
erage annual exports.
2,-The singular coincidence of partial
and total failures of wheat crops in coun-
tries which have competed to less i'm
portant degree, with the Central United
States in the business of supplying Eu-
rope with breadstuffs. These countries
are California, Chill, India and Australia,
in all of which great diminutiOns are re,
ported, and which it is believed have sent
forward nearly all the grain they can
spare. Egypt, which usually sells little
wheat will also need all that she has at
home.
If we grant all these causes their full
effect, it would imply that we are to be
called upon for just twice as much grain
as usual, and perhaps more, because the
Russians and Turks are changed from
producers to consumers, and will need
large quantities of grain to support the
two million of fighting men they will
have in the field.
But against these reasons can be urged
1.-The supply from Russia has been
very small for the pat two years, owing
to a general failure Of crops, which ex-
tended to the larger portion of the grain
exporting area. We have supplied large
part of this deficiency, which will dimin-
ish the augmentation of our exports
now.
2.-The contingency now happening,
has been anticipated for over year in
Europe, and shrewd grain operators have
been energetically providing against it,
which was easy 10 do with the cheap cap
ital and abundant storage facilities OF
Europe. 1t costs little to ''carry" a stock
of grain in England; the prices which
ruled here for the past year have been
reasonably low, and merchants ran little
risk in buying heavily for future rise.
For instance, amber wheat could have
been bought in this port at any time last
summer at prices ranging from 81 03 to
81 101k, a figure so low as to suggest op-
portunlties for profitable investment, by
any one having the use of money at a
moderate rate of interest and cheap stor-
age facilities. We need not imagine that
the European dealers did not improve this
opportunity to the utmost.
3.-But still more potent factor to be
considered in the question is that as price
of any article rises, its consumption is
diminished in something like the same
proportion. There will be nothing like
as much amber wheat used at the present
price of So 02 as there was when it could
be bought for 81 O3. People will eithel
eat less bread; which they can do by sup
plying its place with rice, beans, potatoes
peas, turnips, and vegetables generally
or they will make it of cheaper material
corn, rye, barley, oats, etc. The great
consumers of our wheat crop in Europe
are poor people, who count every penny
of expenditure, and make all manner Of
shifts to avoid the slightest advance. II
they. calculate to spend shilling fol
bread, they will not spend any more be-
cause the bread is dearer; they will cal
less bread, and make up for quantity by
some cheaper substitute.
These reasons seem to US strong enough
to warrant the supposition that while
prices may perhaps be sustained at the
present figures, the chances rather favor a
decline than an advance in the near fu-
ture. We will without doubt send abroad
in the neighborhood of so per cent. more
gain than in previous years, but these is
nothing in this to build any speculative
hopes upon, and the doing so should be
discouraged by every business man. In
this respect, as in all Others, proper and
judicious management of such increase
Of trade as comes to US, will result bene-
fcially to all engaged in it, and be a
source of general prosperity; but the in
fusion into the business of any spirit OF
greedy speculation will result iu signal
disaster to those who let their hopes over
master their judgment.-ToIedO (0.,)
Blade.