The daily gazette., 1877-06-26

anxiety among French economists
M. de Lavergne took the statistics of
oIrths and deaths for the two Years
1879 anGsls7a ss :oiiG@A:
~ 1865. 1868.
| nuns. ..... .JOO,UUU J46.3O4
Deaths. s........... .793,064 844 ,598
EXCESS of births. .. .172,936 l0l. ZIG
and thence came TO most alarming
conclusions concerning the prospects
OF population in France, comparing
win them the steady and rapid in
crease in England and Germany. M.
berthlllon, the well-known statisti-
clan, followed this up with statements
no less significant, showing that the
present birth-rate per thousand souls
was in France 1913 to 35 in England
and 80 in Germany, and that this birth
rate had steadily diminished since the
beginning OF the century, when it was
Do La half century, if these rates
continued unchanged, Germany would
have population OF nearly 69,0OO,OO
as compared with frances az, ,OO0,OO
though we doubt IF M. Berthillon
here made due allowance for emigra-
lion- During the fiscal year ending
June 30, 1876, there were 169,986 I'M
migrants landed In the United States,
but little more than q third of the i'm
grafton of 1873, and just Al per cent.
OF the average immigration of the
four preceding years. Taking the four
quarters ending December 81, 1876.
which only showed an arrival of 15T,-
44e souls, we draw from France g.
735 people and from Germany 81
323, the populations of the two coun-
tries being-France. 36, 100000; Ger
many, 4l,O00,O00.
One result of the agitation begun by
M. ue Lavergne was the publication
OF an unusually complete and valu.
able corpus of official reports of late
date, and OF numerous analyses, ammo
tations and reviews by French econo
mlsts and statisticians. The following
are the figures which show the move
ment of population during the three
years succeeding the Franco Prussian
war:
Ercess of
Year Births Deaths births
1872. .966, ,901=793, ,O64 172,937
1873. ...... $40, 1884 S44, ,5S8 1O1, ,776
1874. 1853, 652 1,7U9 17I,943
1t would not be just to compare
with these figures the excess of 450,O GOO
births every year in Germany and of
1856, 600 in the United Kingdom, for
France insists on slower increase of
population. But the excess of births
in France in 1874, which has so reas-
sured her authorities, is due in reality
to an abnormally low deatb-rate.
Only ouce in twenty-four years had
so small mortality been recorded
in 1860, when there were 7Sl,635
deaths.
The death-rate is, of course, subject
to fluctuations. A poor harvest in
creased it ia 1873, in 1874 the laws
regulating juvenile labor and baby
farming certainly brought it down. 1t
Is for this reason thai calculations
based on the death-rate of 1874 as a
factor are not TO be depended upon. |
But six times since 1S25-and then
the population was much smaller than |
it is now-has there been a death-to- |
tai less than that of 1874. Taking the |
period of peace and prosperity from |
1861 to 1860, and making due allow
erage annual mortality during that
period was greater by $4,000 than it |
was in 1874.
To repair this loss satisfactorily the
birth-total at present recorded in
France cannot be considered adequate.
1t is less, even after allowing for the
lost eastern provinces, than the aver
age of the eleven years ending with
1868. In the term 1821-3l, with a pop
ulation of from thirty to thirty-two
millions, the births exceeded those of
1874 (when the population was thirty
six millions) every year but one. But
twice between 1881 and 1916 were
there fewer births than in 1874; and in
the whole period extending from the
Restoration to the war with Germany
only on thirteen occasions was the to
tai of1S74 not exceeded. This is ir-
rcfragable proof that Malthusian Gus
toms of France are maintained, and
are possibly becoming more general
and stringent.
The figures concerning marriages are
not so easily and accurately to be COM
pared. The disturbance of the war de-
terred many unions which were carried
INTO 1917 ana 1910, anu III can naruly yet
be said that the normal condition of
things has been restored. There is also
q tendency towards diminution in the
number of legal marriages owing to the
of formalities connected with
their celebration. The following figures
must therefore be taken simply for what
they may be worth:
Year. Marriages. Year Marriages.
1850, 2SS, 936 1863, 1903 1872
1861, 299,579 1874, 3O3, lib
1t is rather ashOcl to preconceived no.
tions to find that, despite the number of
Legitimate unions annually contracted
IN Paris and the great cities, people mar
" more in France than they do in Eng
land. There were recorded in France in
1874, 303,1l3 marriages, in a population
of 36, 102 92l; in 1875 there were reported
N Great Britain and Ireland 251, ,160, in n
population of 32, 749 ,167. In other words,
France, in round figures, had 20 per cent
N ora m ri oaS ont of 0nlU IN nar oant l .