The Rock Island Argus. (Rock Island, Ill.) 1877-1885, 1877-09-13
Thursday. September 10, 1877.
Our wheat Crop.

To every class, the future of wheat has
become Of great importance. 10 the con-
sumner, it means greater or less cost of food;
and to the manufacturer, greater or less
cost of labor. To the transporter, it means
larger or smaller earnings; and to the
producer, larger or smaller profits. Cal
culations based upon the estimated home
production and foreign deficiency OF wheat,
have formed the basis Of speculadons IN
grain and stocks in which many millions
are invested. AS usual, there are con-
ficting reports, and individuals take differ
ent views of the prospect, according to
their personal interest. The New York
Herald has the following on this subject:
The crop in this country has been est
mated at 325,0O0,000 bushels, Later re-
ports however, have tended to reduce this
estimate; and the phenomenon is of such
frequent occurrence that an explanation
seems timely. Those who have observed
early reports for serious of years, and
have compared them with final returns, have
doubtless observed that whenever there
IS a large crop, estimates always make it too
large, and whenever there is a small crop,
estimates always make il too small. The
natural tendency is TO exaggorate either
success or failure. If there is good crop,
the early estimates are generally the best;
&c a poor crop, they are generally the worst.
THIS year the crop is unquestionable very
large, but we have as yet no means OF iudg-
ing as to its quantity in the spring wheat
regions, ia which the harvesting has not
vet been completed. Even after harvest,
il has happened many times that farmers
have been deceived as to the yield on their
own farms, to the extent of ten or twenty
per cent-an error detected only when the
grain was actually threshed and weighed.
Not only this, but other important causes
OF possible variation exist, as to the crop IN
at least two northern states which are ex-
pected to yield 60,0O0,00O bushels Ac-
cording to the latest estimates, the crop is
expected to be from 3l5,000,000 to $685.
100000 bushels, but it is still possible that
it may fall short Of either estimate.
Ii is a very common error to suppose
that the quantity held for consumption, for
seed, and-a very important item-for re-
serve, does not materially differ from year
to year. But all experience teaches that
the consumption varies as much as one
235, ZOO 900 bushels, if the present popula-
ton is Al ,O0O,0 OO not so much because the
people eat less food, as because, in time of
stress aud high prices, they eat more OF
corn. To many statisticians it may be
susprise to learn that, in some states, the
ordinary consumption of wheat is less than
AZ bushels per capita, while in other states
it exceeds 81 bushels. Undoubtedly the
consumption rises when the price is low;
but when the price is high, corn is used in
stead Of wheat in greater quantity, and
the consumption of wheat declines. Again,
the population has been increasing con-
stantly and with especial rapidly in the
states which produce the largest quantities
OF wheat. lie is estimated by competent
statisticians that the population of the
United States now closely approaches Al,
000.Q0e, aud a considerable part of the
increase is in the wheat. producing regions.
With such a population, and with low
price for wheat, the consumption may eX-
coed $50, 100000 bushels. with a higher
price, there would be larger quantity to
spare for export. Some allowance must
be made, also. for the steadily increasing
acreage to be cultivated in the newer states,
aud for the increased quantity required for
seed,
The surplus in the United States has
ranged, within the past six years, from
5O,00O,00O to IS 900, 900 bushels, and, 10
accordance with the reasoning here offered,
that surplus has not been proportioned to
the magnitude Of the crops. The rise and
tall Of domestic production, Of holding for
seed, aud of reserve retained for better
market, have quite dwarfed the variations
in production as to effect upon exports. 1t
is exceedingly important to have this fact
in mind, because the expectation of a large
crop has now caused the granaries to be
cleared out to an unusual degree. aud Q
very large part of the reserve from former
crops has been sold Probably the guam
tity OF wheat on hand in the country il
smaller than il has been since 1869. Blu
this deficiency of reserve will be taken iron
the new crop, and it will leave severa
million bushels less for export than nigh
be exported il no such reserve were Ordi
narily held. When prices are low, many
farmers hold until the markets are better
or, at least, until the prospects as to thu
next crop is well defined Much larger
shipments than usual of old wheat have
been made this year, and the natura
consequence will DO that a much largel
quantity than usual will be held back from
the new crop, as reserve for future con-
tingeneies. The prospects abroad need,
seperate consideration.