The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1877-08-17


There are good grounds for expecting
better and brisker fall trade this year than
we had last. The grain crop of the West is
reported to be good, the cotton crop will
nearly equal that of 1876, and there is 80
much unemployed money that there will be
no lack of bank accommodation for moving
the harvests. There is likely to be an I'M
usual display Of energy and promptness in
moving the grain crop of the present
year, owing to the uncertainty which
attends military operations in the East
Should the war terminate in the latter
part Of autumn or the beginning OF winter
whatever grain there may be for export in
Turkey and Southern Russia will find an
outlet, with a reduction Of price in the Eng
lish market. Both belligerents are finan-
cially weak, and the credit even of Russia is
at SO low an ebb that she would find great
difficulty i'll contracting loans With this
impeachment to n protracted war peace may
become possible by the Intervention of the
other Powers as soon as Russia shall have
wiped out the discredit which has fallen on
her arms in the recent disasters. TO be sure,
this is only possibility, but it is one Of the
possibilities which our business men will
take into account It will make them eager
to take advantage Of the present high price
of grain while it lasts, and is likely to i'm
part great activity to the fall trade. The
London Economist of August 4, just re-
csived, has elaborate comparative tables of
prices, from which it appears that the pres
ent price Of wheat in England is sixty-four
shillings and sixpence per quarter, while
six months ago the price was only ffty-two
shillings and threepence, and year ago
forty-eight shillings and twopence-that is
to say, the price OF wheat is thirty-three and
one-third per cent higher than it was year
ago, which will be great stimulus to
activity in forwarding the new crop.
The price of cotton is not high, nor is it
likely to be if the war should continue, food
costing so much in England as to force
curtailment in other branches Of expendi-
ture, and yet our cotton crop will find
market, for the<ability of the English people
to purchase food depends on continuance
of the manufactures which furnish them en-
ployment. Even if the war should close
the price of grain will be high. The inter
ruption of industry in the East during the
present summer and the waste and destruc-
ton wrought by colossal armies will leave
little grain to be exported by our chief
rivals, while the terrible famine which
prevails in India will interrupt the supply
of rice, which is partial substitute
for other cereals. With abundant crops,
good markets and strong motives for hasten
ing transportation there is an excellent
prospect of an active business season during
the coming autumn. Our railroads and our
merchants will share the prosperity Of the
farmers The country dealers will be likely
to make large purchases of goods, because
their customers will have greater ability to
buy than during the last three or four years.
In most branches of merchandise prices will
be low and business be done ut small
profits. But we may reasonably expect
pretty active fall trade on q sound, healthy
basis; and if Congress does its duty at the
approaching session the fall trade will be
the precursor of steady improvement in the
business situation.