Daily Kennebec journal. [microfilm reel] (Augusta, Me.) 1870-1975, 1877-04-28

southern
shipping : ioa i1a7 On @oAlO Oo %
wsutee / lsa Ga oaa 81
Steamer
xed asa Goa TIA 10
Meas IA goa |, lsa Il OOA IA
racke. 10 soa lioOl5Oo i5yoa II
Taiiow Il, sa s.i
This is certainly considerable advance.
1t ranges from IL per cent. on beef to &c
per cent. on -four. and 80 per cent on
wheat. 1t would be difficult, we think, to
point TO any fact, which reasonably
weighed, would justify so extreme a
movement.
The present European war must affect
our markets for any great ltngih of time
according as it is confined TO the present
contestants, or extended to other Eu-
ropean nations.
1. If confined to Russia and Turkey, il
will, 10 the ratio of its duration, lessen the
production Of grain, and increase the con.
sumption of the materials of war--that is,
Of the ordinary munitions and of clothing
and the materials employed in transporta-
ton, and 1t must add to tine consumption
of food by the large amount Of waste which
occurs in feeding armies. The reduction
of production Of grain in this case is
likely to be the most important factor in
the problem of the probable effect of the
war on American markets. The other
elements are remote and indefinite. Ac-
cording to the Commercial Bulletin, the
export of wheat and maize which can be
influenced by the war is in all y 900, 900
bushels year. including that Of Rouma-
MIA. This is about seven-tenths of our
own exports Of the same articles during
the year ending the 30th of last June. Adj
ding our exports of wheat. and the ex-
ports which can be affected by the war
are not more than so per cent. of our
own for one year. When we reflect that
the war can only check a portion oil
the exports referred to, and that
reduction of one-half of the amount
would be very remarkable, we can see
that II we were TO gain all that was lost
from Russia and Turkey-in other words,
if we were called ON to make up all that
they failed to supply-it would be extrav-
agant 10 suppose that our exports would
be increased by as much as 25 per cent.
OF course. we shall not be called upon to
make up all of whatever deficiency may
take place; that will be distributed over
all the sources of supply, and our share
would be proportionately less. Keeping
these facts In mind, is il reasonable to ex-
pect that an advance Of from 80 per cent.
to SO per cent. In wheat and flower can
be maintained on any consequences OF
the war, if confined to Russia and Tur-
key'
2. The war may affect our markets by
Its extension to other nations, and espec-
tally to Germany, France, and Austro-
Hungary, all grain-exporting countries.
But the prospect of any such extension is
somewhat problematical, and operations
in grain based upon its probability are
much more of the nature of speculation
than of legitimate trade.
We need not point out that whatever
operations in breadstuffs or provisions are
speculative-that is. are based on mere
chance. and not on intelligent calculation
of probabilities-must 10 the end bring
grief to somebody. Sharp operators may
get the benefit of sudden and a
Fictitious rise. but whoever happens
to be heavily stocked when this false in-
crease Of value is reduced to reality. will
suffer. 1t is for our merchants themselves
to decide how far the present advance eau
be relied on with prudence. Every one
knows, OF course. that great part of 1t
is due to pure gambling. Dealing on "mar-
gins" 10 wheat Is not so common, we hope,
as a similar form of betting is in the
Stock Exchange. but it was too ''com-
mon" at best. That il is every way dan.
gerous practice, that /. sways the founda-
tions of credit. that it exposes Legitimate
trade to grave and unnecessary peril. are
conclusions which every prudent business
man has arrived at long ago. Judicious-
ly accepted and acted on, the influence of
European war on our trade might be
made source of much-needed prospect
ty; but ii it Is to be used as the occasion
for reckless gambling, we may very east
ly be the worse instead OF the better for
IL.
There is pretty good authority for say