, 1877-09-12

of Suleiman Pasha. If that General can be
detained beyond the Balkans, either by the
resistance of the Russians in the principal
Passes, or by the physical difficulties of a
march northward, or by the fears of the
Ministers at the Porte, the Grand Duke
Nicholas may be able to deal with the armies
of Mehemet Ali and Osman Pasha' at his
Ia;snrs. There is, however, a much greater
probability that Suleiman Pasha will make
himself a bower in tde decision of events in the
Jantra Valley, although the reports of his
march through the Passes lately held by the
Russians are doubtless exaggerations. or, at
anv rate, anticipations of the truth. If, indeed,
Suleiman Pasha should force his way to Tirno-
va, he would be able so far to strengthen both
Mebemet Ais and Oman Pasha's Armies that
for weeks to come they need not fear any
strength Of which the Grand Duke Nicholas
will be able to dispose. But We do not thiuk
Il likely that the Turkish Generals in Bulgaria
will bo able to hold their grounds against tho
Russians, unless they can effect q junction with
Snleiman Pasha. If they can do SO, there is
no reason why there should be any decisive
;s,ne Of the campaign before the rains GENE on in
October. Meanwhile the questions Of food
snpnly and sanitary organization become Of the
oreeatest Importance. The worth of an army in
f9be field, even when composed of the fin est
raw materill, is quickly impaired by the
combined effects Of scarcity and epidemic
disease, and that such deterioration will happen
in the case of the hosts now facing one another
between the Danube and the Balkans scarcely
admits ofdoubt. The only uncertain point is
whether the Russians or the I urks are likely
70 suffer more by disease and want Of 70 Od, and
this is a problem which no one, probably, is
able to guess at beforehand.
Both Russians aud Turks appear to be vast
ipn O great deal of their strength upon the
bombardment Of fortresses. Rnstchuk and
Giurgevo have been exchanging a heavy
artillery FIRE without any result for the last
connle Of DAYS. In the Dobrudscha the forces on
each side seem to have completely neutralizcd
each other, for if General Zimmerma nus troops
have been Withdrawn from the field Of &C i've
operations in the Jantra Valley, Prince Has
sans Egyptians have equally held alOof from
the movement s of the Turkish Army at Shum-
Ia. A slow campaign has been apparently re-
solved upon by both parties, and the issue will
be probably determined as much by :" staying
power" rs by strategy 1t is obvious that in
such a conflict Russia has many advantages,
most, indeed, if not all, of those which the
North had over the South in the American CT.
vii War. But Russia canpot hope to blockade
Turkey as the North, possessing naval %predOm-
nance at the samo time upon the Atlantic, the
Gnlf Of Mexico, aud the Mississippi, was able to
blockade the Sontb. The contest, therefore,
NAV be mu ch longer and moro uncertain, In
Armenia it is evan more indecisivo than in
Bulgaria, although within the last few days Cen
eral MelikoF has made a Sudden onward move
ment, and now threatens at the same time
Kars and tho 70 ad to Erzeroum by Ami.
The attempt to exhaust a feobler enemy's
strength by prolonged and d~esultory operations
must be sos. ly and tedious but If the Russian
Government is prepared TO spend men and mo-
uey enough, it has a good chance Of victory
even vet, though at a vast expenditure of
money aud lives, both in Armenia and Bulgaria.
At present, however, there seems to be as little
chance of a decisive success for the invaders in
Armenia as 10 Bulgaria. Our Correspondent
with the Turkish Army in Asia has borne
TESTIMONY to the admirable behaviour of the
Russian troops in Armenia. and there is reason
to believe that this line of conduct has been
adopted for political as well as moral reasons.
The Armonians are proud of their nationality
and would be sorry to see it levelled by the
crushing roller of Russian GENERALIZATION.
But the y have the feelings of men, and they
canpo fail to place the conduct of Russian
troops in salient contrast with the ferocities of
tho Turks. They would rather, it is true, be-
come " the "SWitzerIand of Asia " than either
remain subject to Turkish bondage or accept
the Russian yoke. But they forget, or DO not
know, how imprGcticable are guarantees of
neutrality where the neutral State is not sur.
rounded and n .otected bv manv Jealous Pow.