The New York herald., 1877-09-23
Hopeful View OF the Business
Future.

There are many reasons to believe that
the long period of industrial depression is
at last coming to an end in this country
and that we are on the upward turn. We
are likely to get good prices this year for
| our abundant crops the country is at last
restored to peace and harmony by the set
tlement Of the Southern question there is
an active revival of agricultural industry
all over the South our manufacturers be-
gin to see that they may hope for a foreign
market for their surplus products ; great
mass of bad debts has been extinguished,
and business in almost all departments has
been brought, with much suffering to indi-
vduals. down to "bed rock" and may,
therefore, start up on q sound basis We
propose to demonstrate that when once our
affairs take an upward turn there is every
reason why we should return to general
prosperity sooner than European nations.
All the world has been fighting or getting
ready to fight since 1861, and during the
same period has been building in waste
full manner enormously costly public works
most Of which do not yield a return to those
who advanced money for their construction.
National debts have increased fearfully in
the last sixteen years, and on great many
millions of this kind of Indebtedness no in
terest is regularly paid, which cripples the
bondholders A great many more millions
spent on railroads and other public works
also yield no returns, and thus numerous
other people are impoverished. Almost all
Al. -, <1,o
ton of man who has built larger house
than his fortune can maintain, and who yet
cannot sell his elephant to somebody else.
An ingenious writer in Fraser's Magazine
has almost demonstrated the curious theory
that the long period Of seeming prosperity
and during which business was brisk, pro-
duction in certain branches abnormnlly
stimulated, and great fortunes rapidly
made, was caused and maintained by the
fact that England-and we should add Ger
many and Holland during this period lent
enormous sums of money to the Canadians,
the Turks, the Central Americans, the
Mexicans and ourselves. with which bor-
rowed money all these debtors very freely
bought English goods; and he maintains that
now, when England has no more to lend,
her customers are no longer able to buy.
To some extent this is true, but the plain
fact is that we have passed through twenty
years of cruel and continuous extravaganza
and waste the world is poor it has not
merely lived up to its income, but it has
seriously impaired it's capital. 1t can re-
cover only by economy, and, other things
being equal it is quite certain that that na
tion will soonest recover and will have the
greatest advantage in the upward race
which is able to live the cheapest.
Now, when we come to look at this phase
of the question, it seems to us easily de-
monstrable that we have some very i'm
portant advantages over every European
nation. We can live more cheaply and we
do conduct our affairs far more economically
than any European nation. In the first
place we have an Incompatible advantage
in this, that we need not maintain huge
standing armies and costly iron-clad navies
in time Of peace, and we are not in the least
likely to go to war for half q century to
come. The following table shows at glance
how great is the drain which we thus es-
cape. 1t gives in each case the population
and the army on peace establishment of
the country mentioned -
Population Army in Peace.
Great Britain ........... 81, ,OOO 900 132 sS4
France. -. 81, 0U0, 900 43O 7U3
Germany. ............... IS. 600, 600 419 $50
Austro- Hungary. ........ 81, 600, 900 21S 40
Italy. aly.................... 81, COO, 900 2l4 6B7
Belgium. um.............. 8, 5OU00 40 900
United States. .......... IS, 100000 $4,000