The Republican. [volume] (Oakland, Md.) 1877-current, 1877-06-02
The War and American Trade.


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The War and American Trade.
1t is evident that the stimulating force
eXerted by the war in Europe upon our
markets has been checked, though prob
ably not exhausted. Flour of all grades
has, on the whole, receded from the
prices reached at the close of April.
Wheat and corn remain substantially at
the same rates, with a downward ten
dency. Grain freights by steamer are
considerably lower, and sailing freights
remain about the same. The upward
movement in railway shares has wavered
for several days, and may be assumed to
have reached its climax, as far as it de-
pended on the anticipated effect of the
war on grain shipments. Hostilities in
Europe have been less rapid in their
progress than was expected; the seat of
active operations has turned out to be,
for the present, at distance from the
regions contributing to the grain prod
uct; there are no definite signs of an eX-
tension of the conflict to other powers,
and the course of events has been such
as to give the mercantile community
breathing spell, in which it may more
calmly review the situation and fix its
calculation on a tirmer basis than was at
first adopted.
This, certainly, is to the advantage of
all legitimate dealers 1t is not to be
denied that a war in Europe which
should cut off from competition with the
United States portion of the grain
fields of the world might prove very
decided benefit to our commerce in its
present depressed condition. But pre-
ciscly because our trade is depressed,
and that from deep-seated causes which
can only be slowly removed, any series
of events which should excite undue
hopes and lead to extravaganza ventures
would be not help, but a grave, and
possibly disastrous, hindrance to the
recovery of our prosperity. 1t is as i'm
possible to make something from nothing
by human agency in trade as in physics,
and feverish activity in trade, based
on expectations which could not be real
lied, would only further exhaust our al
ready reduced powers. In this connec-
ton we venture to bring forward some
considerations advanced by the Railroad
Gazette, which strengthen the opinion we
have already expressed, that it is very
easy to look for too much from the eff
feet of the war on the demand for Amer
lean grain.
We have already suggested that even
if the entire product of the South Rus
sian, Roumanian, and Turkish grain
fields were entirely cut off from the
markets of Western Europa contin-
gency utterly impossible-an if the
United. States were called upon to sup
ply the deficiency thus created, the prob
able advance in prices caused by in
creased demand has been already nearly
if not wholly discounted. The gazette
now points out that the fields referred to,
though their natural outlet by the Black
Sea may be closed, can, to Il great eX-
tent, secure another outlet to the north
and west by the ports of the Baltic. At
the time of the Crimean war this was not
the case When the English navy
blockaded the Russian ports, it practi-
cally shut up the Russian grain. But
now the country to the north of the
Black Sea is penetrated by railroads,
WHICH, usually anu NATURALLY carly Jut
grain of that country southwark toward
Odessa and neighboring ports, but which
also connect with a railway system ex-
tending in the opposite direction toward
the Baltic ports. Under ordinary con-
ditions the grain within 200 to 400 miles
of the Black Sea seeks Liverpool by
route comprising 400 miles or less of rail
and $500 miles of sea carriage. If it
were turned northward and westward it
could arrive at the same point by a route
made up of from 400 to i, 100 miles of
rail and only 900 to 800 miles of sea.
The latter route is more expensive, but
it is shorter, and its use is an obvious
limitation on the advance in the price of
grain. In the same way the Roumanian
grain can, if the price warrants it, be
sent up the Danube, instead of down,
and seek market over the Austrian rail
way system. These facts warrant the
Gazette in saying that, "unless the war
becomes general, we, must not expect to
get famine prices for grain and CORE
spending rates for carrying it."-N 7.
Times.