The New York herald., 1877-09-10
Tn. Trad. or tn. United states.

Tne VrSOo Oh tu0 OnAteu ceosos'
Within the week just past we have taken
note Of hundreds of editorial articles in our
exchanges relating to the revival OF trade
and the business prospects Of the autumn.
Some of these we have dipped into just far
enough to catch their drift, and some few,
more thoughtful or intelligent than the rest,
we have perused with close attention.
They all tell substantially the same story
they all bear witness to an increased activ-
ity of trade in the particular cities or locali-
ties where these journals are published,
and quite a number of them found their
opinions upon, OF tortify them by, interviews
with local dealers in various branches Of
merchandise. The testimony is so uniform,
and in the journals of the great Western
cities, SO emphatic, that it is impossible to
doubt that trade has really taken a gratify-
ing and hopeful start, although some allow
of writers who are glad Of opportunities to
present bright side of the picture. The
advertising columns of newspapers are, per-
haps, more trustworthy index to the state
Of trade than their editorial opinions.
When business is active advertisements
crowd the journals, and Judging by this
criterion there is decided improvement.
We refer for illustration to yester-
days HERALD, which had twenty more
columns Of advertisements than on Sunday,
August 10, three weeks ago. There is un-
doubtedly a marked improvement in trade
and favorable prospect for all the autumn
months.
But we must not put delusive interpre-
tation on this dawn of renewed prosperity.
All the numerous journals which have made
ira topic of congratulation agree in assigning
as its main cause an accidental condition of
things which may not be permanent 1t is
chiefly owing to the wonderful abundance
Of our crops, combined with short harvest
in England and an interruption of the
grain supplies of that country from
Southeastern Europe by the war.
BY this opportune conjuncture we are sup
piled with an enlarged market precisely
when we have the greatest quantity OF
breadstuffs to export, making, as it were, a
double harvest-a splendid harvest of grain
from our prolific soil and harvest of high
prices by the brisk European demand. This
gives powerful impulse to every branch Of
ing railroads, gives employment for the
money which has so long lain idle In our
banks, and extends the domestic market
for every species Of manufactures and mer-
chandise by putting money in the hands
of vast circle Of agricultural purchas-
ers. If we could count upon such
q harvest every year and rely every year
upon so active European market to take
the large surplus of our hands at remuner-
ative prices, we might safely felicitate the
that its business troubles are over.
But this fortunate concurrence Of circum-
stances is exceptional. In all human prob
ability it will not be repeated next year. 1t
would be a marvel and almost a miracle if
it should be repeated trom year to year.
Providence has been very kind to US, but
that does not exempt us from the,necessity
of foresight NOR from the duty Of taking care
of ourselves in less favorable years. Suppose
that, next year, the tables should be turned
on US in the matter of harvests, what would
be our condition then 1t is possible that
next year our crops may be deficient, that
the harvest of England may be good, that
the war will have ended the Black Sea
ports be open, the grain crop OF Southern
Russia abundant, the price of wheat low in
Liverpool, with very little in our country to
export at any price, Such possibility is
certainly no reason why we should not make
the most Of our present good fortune, but it
teaches the necessity of looking ahead. A
transient flush of business, depending on
which may not be repeated,
does not encourage capital to embark
in new undertakings which would give
employment to our surplus labor. Capital
looks to the future; it regards permanent
conditions. No association of capitalists
will build new factory, or open a new
mine, or construct a new railroad, or start
new line OF steamships on the strength Of
one great harvest which finds q market by
the accidental condition OF Europe. We
shall have no solid prosperity until our
laborers are all employed. This years |
harvest gives additional employment
only to people engaged in transport
ing the crops. Our great mining and
manufacturing industries are not per-
ceptibly improved, nor will they ex-
hibit much vigor without better markets.
The great bounty of Providence this year
will have been bestowed in vain if We do not
take advantage OF the relief it brings to push
indispensable reforms. These indispensable
reforms are of a nature to cause some tenn
porary inconvenience, which could be more
easily borne now than in season of deprcs-
sion. This is good time to force specie re-
sumption, because the farmers of the West
who have fought it with most energy will
have unusual means of paying their debts
in the high prices they receive for their