New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1877-10-03
THE COMING UINTER Nv BULGARIA.

For n week past, All our HtNs-dHu 'p"'hJ
so all rumors received-from the seat OF war
point Enthusiastically to preparations for the
Winter The first task for Russia has been
already set, and until that is completed, we
need hardly look for important operations IN
other quarters. Turkeys line Of defence is IN
dicated with similar clearness, both by the ne
cessites of her position and the recent move
ment of Mehemet Ali, the only one of her
generals who is free to move his army Snow
on the Balkans and heavy rains from their
base to the Danube, have given dismal fore
taste of Winter, and the exigency OF provld-
iDg for the nclement season is even greater
than that of winning new victories this year.
There is no doubt that Osman Pasba cOntin-
ues to hold Plevna with grip which will not
be easily loosened. The place is provisoned
for two or three months, at least. His COM
muncatons with Widdin are still intact, al
though those with Sophia have been disturbed
of late, and he will probably be able to make
all necessary preparations for sustaining long
siege. If General Todleben's opinion is cor
recty reported, it will indeed be long and
laborious work for the Russians; but the cap
ture of the place is an inevitable condition OF
their further advance. Sulciman Pasha's posi-
ton at the Shipka Pass only differs from
Osman's at Plevna, in this that he IL
not besieged, but, by the general plan
Of resistance. is compelled to keep his
place. 1t would be nearly correct to say that
one-half of the pass is held by each antago-
mist, met in n deadlock of strength. which
neither dares relax. On the east, the retire
ment of Mehemet Ali beyond the LON is I'M
l. 60 tI,a Of o1y no
est defensbe line for the Winter. This he
will find in the hills to the eastward of the
river, and at the same time he will shorten his
communications with Rasgrad and Shuma
BY holding the town of Osman Bazaar as his
extreme left he will cover all the eastern
passes of the Balkans, except the Demir
Kapu. which will still be nearer TO him than
to the Russians at TirnOya. But it is not
likely that he will be attacked in force, while
the Crescent continues to wave over Pevna.
The strategy prescribed for Russia is equally
PLAN. If she cannot wholly isolate Osman
Pasha, so that the capture of Pleyna shall give
her also his army, she must at all hazards pre-
vent his retreat upon Sophia. THIS necessity
explains the attitude of Servla. reluctant to
Join III the war, restrained by Austrian influ-
power of final victory in her unsteady hands.
Unless n considerable garrison has been left
in Widdin, which is not probable, we'll
Differed Servian army, operating in the
rear of that fortress, would be able
to cut off Plevna, and then, with
ont even waiting for its fall, to clear
the way for Russian advance on Sc
phia. But if Osman Pasha saves the greater
part of his army, he VIII instantly occupy the
western passes of the Balkans, as Mehemet
Ali will occupy the eastern. With the aid of
the spade, which is becoming a more formid-
able weapon than the bayonet in the hands of
the Turkish soldier a stronger line of defence
than that of the Danube will confront the
Russians next year. And this terrific contin-
gency is the result of two almost incredibly
stupid blunders-the failure to occupy or even
to examine Plevna, after crossing the Danube,
and the failure to support General GhourkO by
an army corps, after he had crossed the Bal
kansl If Russia desires to prevent such con-
tingency, she must reduce her Grand Dukes
to the rank of honorary spectators, and replace
their parade adjutants, now in command, by
soldiers of experience and intelligence.