The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1877-04-14

The community naturally wishes to take
hopeful view of the business situation; but
it is nevertheless everybody's interest to see
things as they are. Men of sense do not adj
dress the press as certain ancient Hebrews
did their prophets:-''Which say to the seers,
See not; and to the prophets. Prophesy not
unto us right things, speak unto us smooth
things, prophesy deceits" 1t is not expedl-
ent Tor any newspaper to treat business
questions in the spirit of this request,
any more than it is for the Signal Service
Bureau to regulate its weather predictions by
the wishes of the people In the midst OF
prolonged drought everybody prays Tor
rain; but the scientific clerks OF the
weather must nevertheless confine them
selves to such differences as are warranted
by their meteorological observations. The
country wishes to be persuaded that busi-
ness is reviving but journalists cannot
properly go beyond the data in their pos
session in catering to this universal wish.
Our own impression is that business is
struggling into a revival, feeble as yet, but
not without promise.
We attach little importance to scattered
indications, gathered here and there IN
peculiar localities and colored more or less
with hues borrowed from hope and imagina-
ton, We find, for example, in the Chicago
Post large batch Of interviews with lead
ing firms which give roseate picture Of the
present state of trade in that city. AS COM
pared with the extreme depression Of last
wear there is no doubt an improvement;
and, from easily explained causes, it may
be more marked in Chicago than elsewhere.
Chicago, the great grain mart OF the West,
is trying to build up Wholesale trade, and
just now its efforts seem attended with
transient success, although quite moderate
in extent. This is a consequence of the
vigorous rivalry Of the last two or three
years between the great trunk railways The
Baltimore and Ohio road and the Pennsyl-
vana road have given their powerful infiu-
ence toward the establishment of ocean lines
of steamships plying between Baltimore and
Philadelphia and European ports. AS
means of attracting business they have made
through contracts for the delivery in
Western cities, and particularly in
Chicago, of goods shipped from Europe
ut prices almost nominal. Freights have
actually been laid down in Chicago and Gin
cinnati at lower rates than in New York.
The motive on which this is done is no
enigma The steamship lines from Phila-
dclphia and Baltimore were projected with
reference to the grain trade But the YES
;cb o,,< Of
liable to return empty or in ballast, and they
had better bring back return freghts for
next to nothing than to have no cargoes at
oil. The same remark will apply to the
railroads which transport grain eastward.
Many of the cars must go back to
Chicago empty, and rather than do this they
have consented to make such rates, in con-
nection with the associated steamship lines,
that the cost Of transportation has been less
from Liverpool to Chicago than from Liver
pool to New York. This is necessarily
shortlived arrangement. 1t has already
compact between the trunk railroads No
road is hereafter to vary it's charges
in connection with the steamship lines.
But while this arrangement lasted it
gave Western merchants an advantage
and inspired them with the hope of
establishing large wholesale trade by
underselling New York in staple imports.
The facts now stated explain the present
signs Of prosperity in Chicago, SO far as
they are real. 1t is beside our present pur-
pose to discuss the great question, SO i'm
portant to New York, Of the diversion Of its
challenges the profoundest study of the best
minds in this community.
For the present we are considering the
general business condition Of the whole
country. Is there as yet any good evidence
of q considerable revival of business? Even
the business of that city is in too excep-
tional condition to be made the basis of
any very wide conclusion. If we would
reach sound ideas we must have recourse to
different order of considerations. The
most infallible criterion of the state of bust
Whenever business is active there is an
urgent demand for money There are always
men enough eager to engage in trade
or to extend their business when
there is q brisk circulation of COM
modities These men need bank accom-
modations in proportion to the amount of
their trade Whenever there is great deal
of buying and selling there is an active de-
mand for money and it hence follows that
the state of the money market and the trans
actions of the banks are true index to the
amount of business. Running around and
interviewing merchants is like attempting
to Judge of the circulation of patients
blood by random touches on various parts
Of his body. 1t is only Mt the wrist
that the pulse comes decidedly to