The daily dispatch. [volume] (Richmond [Va.]) 1850-1884, 1877-09-06
phc Supply and distribution Of Wheat

/
Thc Supply and Distribution Of Wheat
We alluded yesterday to the estimates OF
Mr.. James Caird, well-known English au-
| thoritr. Of the amount OF wheat likely to be
required by Great Britain. The general
| conclusion was that elf the war in Turkey
continues the vast resources of the United
| States and Canada will he severely taxed to
| make good the wants Of Great Britain and
Western Europe" it may be pretty safely
concluded that the war in Turkey will con-
| tinuc quite long enough to bring about the
state OF things, rs 10 this years crops, which
Mr.. Caird anticipates. 1tiS still more safe to
conclude that the deficiencies in the sup
plies from other countries than America.
and the increased necessities Of other con-
sumcrs than Great Britain. which the same
authority predicts, will have all the force
which he very cautiously ascribes to them.
1t is, therefore, OF interest to consider what
NAV he the resources OF the United States
to meet the increased demand.
The most moderate opinion OF the out
look may be formed by assuming that other
countries than Great Britain will take about
the average quantity OF wheat from this
country, and allowing that any increased
demand on their part may he met from the
increased supply from other directions.
The problem with reference TO the Amcri-
can market, then, would be, How much
wheat will Great Britain require: How
much can be supplied from Russia and the
countries about the Black Sea: And how
much will the United States have to ex-
port? Mr.. Cards estimate OF the require
ments Of Great Britain over and above
the home crop is 1l,ooO,ooo quar-
tcrs, or IS, ,000, 900 bushels. A writer in the
| T..;y,,,,, ~ SATURDAY. So,pa
| lmportan: and interesting calculations rs to
the proportion OF the ordinary British de-
mand, which has been satisfied from the va
rious whcat-growing countries. lie puts
the average OF the last four years as follows: !:
The United States and Canada, "a per cent. ;
Russia, 10 per cent. Turkey and Rouma-
mia, 8 per cent; other countries. q per
cent. II the proportions remained the
same this year America would be called
on to supply. according to Mr.. Cards eSti-
mate OF the amount required, 47,520,O 900
bushels; Russia, Roumania, and Turkey,
| 19, $50, 900 bushels; or, in round numbers,
America fifty millions, and the countries
on the Black Sea twenty millions OF bushels.
| IF, as the Tribune writer believes, the deficit
in the supply OF the Black Sea countries Is
one half, America would he called on for
sixty millions Of bushels.
The average crop Of the United States for
the past eight years has been 271,742, ,120
bushels; the average export during the last
six wears has been 63,S24,712 bushels; the
average consumption at home, taking it at
the difference between the above amounts,
would be 213. AIS bushels. Putting this
years crop at 325. 100000 bushels, which is
the estimate generally accepted in Chicago,
and adopted by the writer referred to, and
assuming the consumption to be according
to the above average, we should have 4 sur
plus OF I'LL ,OS2, ,5S7 buShelS-in round num-
bers one hundred and eleven million bushels.
| II the amount sent TO countries other than
Great Britain shall be at the same rate
this wear as last, it will reach 30,000,000
bushels. and we shall have left at least
81 ,OOO. 900 bushels for Great Britain, which
il one third more than that country is esti.
mated to require from both this country
and Canada. The crop OF Canada sent TO
England last year was about 3,0O0,Ooo
bushels. According to this showing we
can hardly agree with the Tribune writer
that il the farmers OF the ten chict Wheat
growing states hold back their crop
prices are likely to rise far above the
averages OF the past ten years." though 1t
Is quite probable, as he predicts, that If
.thev crowd the surplus into the market
prices OF wheat everywhere in the world
will decline below the minimum prices OF
the last ten years" -
There are, however, various elements i'll
the calculation above made which may not
develop as they are there estimated. The
British demand may easily be for more than
IS. 600, 900 bushels. and other authorities. as
good as Mr.. Card, though speaking earlier,
have placed the amount rs high Us $4,000, 900
quarters, or 96,0O0;000 bushels, which was,
indeed, the amount imported last year.
The supply from the Black Sea countries
may fall of more than one half, and it
is quite likely that there will be i deficit
from other sources than the Black Sea coun-
tries, and an increased demand from other
countries than Great Britain. The estimate
OF 325 900. 900 bushels from the United States
is very large one-1I, 900, 900 larger than
any crop we have ever had. The cOnsump-
ton at home is likely to be-indeed, may be
said to be sure to be-larger than the
average OF the past six years, and the
Canadian exports to England are, as yet,
very small. 1t appears reasonable to con-
! cluue that with such continuance OF the
Turko-RuS.ian war as now seems probable,
and with such state OF supply and demand
as is at present indicated, Great Britain will
require all. or nearly all, cur surplus wheat,
il we can and will give it to her at fair
prices. As we have frequently pointed out,
there is every reason for encouragement as
to legitimate trade, but there is very little to
Justify extravagant hopes or excessive spec
ulation. The latter will surely cost both
those who engage in it and the country at
large great deal more than it can bring
NcU York Times.
AMERICAN SOCIAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION.
Saratoga, ". y, September 1.-The ses'
siuns OF the American Social Science Asso.
ciation opened here this evening. DAVID
A. Wells, the president, made an address
on the relation OF economic laws to public
aud private morality. The address was lis
tened to with great interest. 4 large num-
Der OF delegates arrived tonight.