New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1877-09-10
and reserve

l.TG 2sOUOUOUO 362.}15 jJ,oOJ,iJS I3lo9V'-4-
For five years ending June 30, 1866, the
average yearly requirement was l30,2o3'"oS
bushels; for the next five years it was 1885,
A7G.76g bushels; and for the five years ending
June 80. 1876 it was 300 l0S,2j9 bushels.
The population supplied during the war can
not he accurately estimated. During the see
oDd period, the average population was about
$1,000. 600 and the home consumption WAS a
little less than 5ll bushels per capita yearly
During the last period, the average population
having been about 42,7OO,000. the home con-
sumption has been but little more than 43i
bushels per capita yearly With a large crop
and low prices, the quantity taken for home
Use in times OF ordinary prosperity exceeds .
bushels per capita; with small crop, high
prices or hard times, ii falls below bushels,
and the reserve is reduced. This season 1t Is
known that the reserve has been cut down to
the minimum, by shipments OF 3O,5OOOOO
bushels from the West since January |,
against shipments last year OF 29,0OO,OOO
bushels from a crop 100000 larger. At .
bushels per capita, the home requirement
would be about 235,000,000 bushels, beside
the quantity needed 20 Teplenish the reserve
which figures OF yearly consumption indicate
may be roughly estimated at 100000 BUSH
els. Hence if the coming crop is as much rs
$4,000, 600 bushels, and the price is not I'M
usually high. consumption and replenishment
Of reserve will take about %, 0OO, 600 bush
els, leaving 70,COO.COO bushels for export.
Ii the price rules high, both consumption and
The quantity taken for reserve will be dinin-
ished and the sGrplus for export may tien be
as much as 9S,000,0O0 bushels.
The London Miller estimates the British re-
mIIrement at 100000 quarters per month,
or 1872, COO 900 bushels yearly. Mr. Card, a
recognized authority thinks the requirement
may fall as low as 16l000,0O0 bushels If the
price rule, high. As to the British crop, esti-
mates vary from S0,O00,000 TO 96,OO0,000
bushels; upon Mr.. Cards estimate, the def =
cheney may fall to 100000 bushels, and
upon that of The London miller. The deficiency
may exceed 95,OOO,O00 bushels. Accounts
given BIZ these authorities, by The Economist,
and in late letters and kilograms TO The Bulie-
tin OF this city, substantially agree that Great
Britain canrot expect an increased supply this
year from other countries than this, and that
the supply from other countries may be de-
creased if the war continues. An excellent
crop in Roumana, for obvious reasons, will
not be fully available. The yield in Russia is
large but financial uncertainties will prevent
a fall harvest the railways are greatly encum-
bered with military supplies, and the water
route is substantially closed. With war, the
supply from these countries and Turkey may
he reduced one-half. or about 10000 900
bushels, which the utmost increase expected
aud India cear..l,r Ealn
Moreover, a deficiency of about 5000, 900
bushels in supply from Germany and other
countries of Western Europe is expected. The
latest official notice by the Prussian Minister of
Agriculture indicates that the crop will be
about 5.3 per cent below the average, in some
districts falling behind II and ID per cent.
For four years, about 81 per cent of the de-
fciency of great Britain has been supplied by
this country, the proportion steadily increasing.
With continued war, the proportion may rise
rs high as 90 per cent this year in that case,
Great Britain Will require from us 1920, 900
bushels upon Mr.. Cards estimate, and o.
400. 900 upon that of The Logdon Miller.
In 1876, while sending | 1885, lSj barrels of
flour and 42,296,6j2 bushels of wheat to
Great Britain, or 4s,30l,9s4 bushels in all.
we also sent 1900, 1927 barrels and II, 77G,47O
bushels, or in all 24,377,942 bushels, to other
countries. No reason appears for suppOsine
that these minor exports will he smaller this
year. excepting Is these. with exports to Great
Britain, may be checked by an advance in
price. Hence, in order TO send 81, 100000
bushels to Great Britain. We must be prepared
to export about s6.800,O00 bushels in all
Bat we have seen that, with ordinary prices