New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1877-07-18

q large demand, and If England sLou-u pc-
come involved in war, that demand Won be
much increased. Hence the demand for cur
renoy is likely to be not less, and may be con-
sideraby greater, than is usual, ana IL VIII
serve to employ for short time some part oil
the large excess of currency which has been
lying idle.
III. Recent news from Europe does not IN
dictate speedy termination of the war; on the
contrary, il warrants the belief that shipments
of grain from the Black Sea will be very small
this season, and that the enormous conSump-
ton of products which war always involves,
will sens5y affect demand and prices III
European markets. AS yet, the war has been
of small benefit, if any, to American pro-
ducers, however, and it is beginning to he I'M
derstood that the industries of European Ma
tons were so far lacking employment, when
the war began, that the increased demand re-
suting has not suificed as yet to employ fully
European labor and capital. But the posi-
bility that Great Britain may be drawn INTO
the struggle is not remote. 1t grows stronger
with every forward step of Russia toward Con-
stantinOple. Should this event occur, within the
next ninety days, the rate of interest would
probably rise sharply in London, considerable
commercial stringency would cause return to
this country of Government, municipal and
railway securities to a large amount, and the
effect on this side might be great, especially
as this unexpected demand for cash in ex-
change for securities would concur with the
demand for cash to move large crop, and
the demand for cash to pay many millions to
the Government for bonds. or to foreign hold
ers for bonds called by the Treasury.
~. Large crops are usually expected to sns-
tain the prices of railway securities here. But
it must be remembered that at current rates,
which the Canal Board has now determined
not to affect by any action until September, II
then the railways are getting only 2l.4 per
cent of the crops moved, against 45.6 per cent
last year, and with a very full crop the agGre-
gate movement would scarcely be more than
it was from this date forward last season.
The decrease in proportion of cropsmoved by ran
is much greater than any increase of rates which
can be maintained, so that, at The very Dest'
the railways cannot be expected to snow IN
creased earnings Moreover, they have lost on
other freight, which has been diverted by
the canals, and their passenger earnings must
fall far below those of the Centennial year.
The natural inference is that a continued de-
crease of earnings may be expected, and, II
any considerable shipment OF securities from
abroad occurs, OF any sharp rise III the rate Oh
interest, caused either by Government opera
tons, by demand for crop movement, or by
engagement of Great Britain in war, sharp
and rapid fall of stocks would be inevitable.
1t may be added that the enormous increase In
yield of coal presages hard times not far
ahead for that important class of securities,
and that a revival of the general railway war
is not improbable. But any sharp decline in
stocks from the figures now artiically reached,
and upon which loans amounting to many
millions are based, would intensity the demand
for cash. If this influence comedies in time
with the others considered, the changes In
September or October may be startling.
In view of the facts mentioned, it seems to
be a good time to exercise great caution.
Hopeful anticipatiOns for the immediate future
are very pleasing, but are hardly warranted
by a survey of the situation. Wise business
men will take few ventures within the next
ninety days. Prudence, conservatism, lqulda-
ton of past debts, and cash payments for
the future, as far as possible, should pre-
vail Thereby all dangers may be escaped
by many, and those who are insolvent have no
right to drag down with them others who are
solvent In word, condition OF business
ought to exist, for ninety days. exactly such as
would exist if within that time the premium
on gold was to be extinguished. We commend
it to the consideration of the President and
the Secretary of the Treasury, whether the
very condition of trade which prudence die
tates for business men is not one which the
Government ought to seize and improve to the
utmost for the preservation of its honor, and
for the restoration of trade and industry to a
coI,b hoSis