The Kenosha telegraph. [volume] (Kenosha, Wis.) 1860-1888, 1877-08-02
THE BUSINESS OUTLOOK.
Extract from the Quarterly Circular of
Dun, Barlow & Co.

must have it's fulfllment; and for years
OF production, over-trading, and
over-crowding all avenues of commerce,
there must succeed years of economy. of
liquidation and adjustment to smaller
condition of things, such as is now being
experienced. The mistake, since the
panic of 1878 has been that the magni-
t1lde of the expansion, not only in this
country, but the world over, has rarely
been sufficiently appreciated; hence the
false hope has been entertained of an
early return to prosperity. The figures
which illustrate most wildly the nature
and extent of this expansion are those
that relate to that most delusive yet
most fatal of all experiences crea-
ton of debt. The charges which this
debt involves, even when it is possible
to pay all the interest, is an incubus that
sorelv taxes the industries and trade of
the country; but when large portion
OF the money invested is unproductive
and yields no return, with no prospect
of it's repayment, it is a barrier which
effectually retards the return OF conf
dence and leads to endless complications.
The figures most accessible show that
the national debt, as compared with
1854, 600, 900 in 1860, amounts to So, 22O,-
100000 in 1877; that the States debt
amounts to 1915, 600, 900, the municipal
debt to 81, 900, 100000, the railway debt
to $4,000, 100000; the discounts and
loans of national and other banks to
another 81, 900, 900, 900, and the loans by
insurance and other mortgage machinery
may be safely estimated at another
$500, 100000. Grouping all these rough
~ together, the visible Indebtedness, of
which some financial conception may be
formed, amounts to the vast sum of
81, 375, 100000 The curious can calcu-
late how far the interest on this sum, if
regularly paid, would absorb the yearly
product of the natural and other re-
sources OF the country.
The rapid increase in debt-creating
power which the above figures imply. in
some measure indicates the expenditure
for permanent purposes in the last if
teen years. To what extent that growth
of expenditure is in excess of the growth
OF population, or the increase in consum-
ing power, finds it's fullest illustration in
the number of enterprises now proftless,
and especially those devoted to articles
at the foundation of human wants, such
as iron, coal, wooden and other textile
fabrics, lumber, etc., etc. A leading
economist in recent article says: "The
fact is now very generally recognized
that the capital which x * < has
been invested in the United States since
1860 in iron works and wooden mills. and
which represented the savings for years
OF very large number Of persons, has
been in great part as much wasted as
though destroyed by fire or sunk in the
ocean," In view of the enormous ex-
pansion which the above increase of in
debtedness illustrates, is it any wonder
that business is depressed and slow of
recovery? Applying the same princi-
pies to the community as to an individual
business man, the inevitable result of
such growth of obligation, with such
an inability to pay, is that disaster and
long process of liquidation is sure to fol-
low. The growth of the country, the
development of it's varied resources.
economy, and the steady application of
conservative business principles, in time
may profitably employ all the facilities
the last ten years have created. and ad-
just this burden of debt so that it can
be carried and eventually repaid. Only
in proportion as that period is ap-
preached may more healthy and pros
porous condition be anticipated, but the
Immediate future possesses no such
hopes more than it possesses ability to
iquidate and make profitable the debt
which wears have accumulated with such
fearful rapidity.
Meantime people must eat, drink and
wear, and in the supply of these neces-
sites certain extent of trade is secure
And this trade ought not to be unsafe in
sections of country mainly dependent on
agriculture, which Includes the great
West and South, where the purchasing
and debt-paying power is not so restrict
ed as elsewhere. The chief difficulty is
that the number engaged in trade thus
limited is SO far in excess of it's extent
that the competition is destructive of
profit. The evil is one which will, it is
supposed, cure itself. Unfortunately
the principal process by which this will
be effected is that of failure. as the vol
untary Withdrawals. especially from re-
tail trade, are very rare The failure
statistics are, therefore, likely to show
a continued large number of casualties,
but in this view may be more significant
of health than disease. IF a large pro-
portion of traders who succumb could be
kept out of business, and be provided
with some other pursuit than that of
helping to divide small trade among
large number, failures would not be an
unmixed evil. But the facilities which
wholesale merchants themselves afford
for effecting settlements at fifty cents on
the dollar and less, and which the ma
tional bankrupt law encourages, are not
infrequently an effective premium to the
greatest rascality and poorest capacity.
But time cures all, and it is to be hoped
that business sentiment against COM
promises and in favor of an amended