New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1877-09-08

1 when the grain was actually thrcsacd and
weighed. Not only this, but other important
! causes of possible variation exist, aS 10 the
crop in at least two Northern States when
are expected to yield 6O,000,OOO bushels
| According TO the latest estimates. the crop Is
expected TO be from 80, 200, 900 to 800, 900, -
/ 600 bushels but it is still possible that 1t
may fall short of either estimate.
Ii is very common error 10 suppose tnaU
the quantity held for consumption, for seed,
and-a very important item-for reserve, does
not materially differ from year to year p"'
all experience teaches that the cohsuhlptio"
varies as much rs one bushel per caplta-iroih
go. coo. 900 to 235. 100000 bushels, II the
present population is 47,OOO,OO not so much
because the people eat less food, as because,
in times of stress and high prices, they eat
more of corn. TO many statistlclans u may
be a surprise to learn that, in some States the
ordinary consumption of wheat Is less IMAM
43i bushels per capita, while IN other STATES
il exceeds SO, bushels. Undoubtedly the con-
sumption rises when the price is low; but
wien the price is high, corn is used instead or
wheat in greater quantity, and the consumption
of wheat declines. Again, the population
has been increasing constantly and with eS-
pccal rapdity in the States winch produce
the largest quantities of wheat. 1t is estimated
10y competent statisticians that the population
of the United States now closely approaches
1000, geo, and a considerable part OF the
increase is i'm the wheat-prOducng regions.
With such population, and with low price
for wheat, the consumption may exceed 2oo,-
OOO. 900 bushels with higher pnce, there
would be a larger quantity to spare for eX-
mort Some allowance must be made, also, for
the steadily increasing acreage to ne cult
waited in the newer States, and for the in
creased quantity required for seed.
The surplus in the United States has ranged,
within the past six years, from 50,000000 10
n. OOO. 900 bushels, and, in accordance with
the rcasonings here offered, that surplus has
not been proportional to the magnitude OF the
crops. The rise and fall of domestic produc-
ton, of holding for seed, and OF reserve
retained for n better market, have quite
dwaried the variations Iii production as
to effect upon exports. 1t is exceed
incly important to have this fact IN
mind, because the expectation of large
crop has now caused the granares to be
cleared out to an unusual degree, and Il very
large part of the reserve from former crops
has been sold Probably the quantity of wheat
on hand in the country is smaller than 1t has
been since 1869. But this deficiency OF re-
serve will be taken from the new crop, and it
will leave several million bushels less for eX-
port than might be exported if no such reserve
were ordinarily held. When prices are low,
many farmers hold until the markets are bet
ter, or, at least, until the prospect as to the
next crop is well defined Much larger ship
ments than usual of old wheat have been
made this year, and the natural consequence
will be that a much larger quantity than usual
will be held back from the new crop, as re-
serve for future contingencies The prospect
abroad needs separate consideration