New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1876-10-20
EUROPEAN. VAR md AMERIC1N INDUS


In sudden excitement, men do not act much
more reasonably i'll the Stock Exchange than
elsewhere. If there is to be war In Europe, II
will undoubtedly have powerful effect upon
the condition of business and manufactures IN
this country. But it is certain that the effect
Will be in many respects the reverse OF that
which excited operators apprehended Some
hof the consequences may be already foreseen.
In other respects, it is impossible to anticipate
results until we know what Powers Will be
drawn into the war.
ANY considerable war in Europe will create
an increased demand for American brcadstuils,
animal food and cheaper forms of manufac-
ture. Wheat and corn will command better
price. In n recent article, The London Econo-
mist carefully surveyed the ordinary sources
of supply, and, Notwithstanding the deficiency
of crops in Great Britain, Northern Russia,
ROumania, Switzerland Sweden, Norway, Den
mark, and the Netherlands, and the fact
that France was likely to have little
for export, concluded that, "cven II other
European districts are deficient, an average
" harvest in Southern and Central Russia
should 20 far TO compensate the deficiency.
-. We are consequently doubtful
"whether the present level of price will be
" exceeded during the harvest season. But II
Russia goes TO ware The Economists survey,
complete at other points, wholly ignored the
possibility of great struggle involving the
very countries upon which Great Britain
largely relies for its supply. This event, added
To deficiency of harvests in many countries at
once, would make this year of remark
able changes in the price of breadStuils
In this country, though crops are def
cicnt in some quarters, there Is a large sur
plus for export, California included. which, in
case of war, We shall probably be able to sell
for more money than we have realized for n
much greater quantity IN other years. In
many branches of manufacture the disturb
ancc in Europe would help MS, either 10y pre-
venting the shipment of surplus products here
or by increasing the demand for our products
abroad The iron, wooden, and boot and shoe
manufactures with many of minor Importance,
will be affected in greater or lcss degree.
If we purchase less from other countries
because other countries see fit to consume a
surplus in unproductiye fighting, and if we
sell larger quantities of orr DrOductS, or mod
crate quantities at higher prices we shall re-
ducc our debts abroad. and the price of gold
should decline For time, when panics in
foreign markets cause AL sorts of securities to
hc SLAUGHTERED in the effort Of operators to
get cash for their protection, this country will
not experience the full benefits of its
separation from European strife. But it
will soon be seen that any European
nation Is liable to be drawn into tho
strife that the securities of any government,
or of any corporation, the success of which
may be affected by the enlargement of that
govcrnm cnt in the war are of uncertain value.
Then the surplus capital of Europe must turn
more and more to seek security across the
ocean, and, unless this nation unwscly i'm
pairs its credit, its bonds must advance. Other
undoubted American securities will be sought,
and many millions of foreign capital will find
safe employment here. These investments and
loans will 90 far to stimulate our industry.
There is no reason to suppose that unsOund
concerns Will escape loss through a general
and indscriminate advance of stocks and
bonds. European investors have acquired a
profound distrust of most American enterprises.
They are no longer cheated by the tricks of
speculatOrs, which fix an artificial price on the
stock board. Strong foreign demand for secu-
only bring into clearer light the weakness of
those which enjoy no confidence abroad.
1t is supposed by some that increased
foreign shipments would give larger bust
ness to our railways but tie difference
in quantity moved to the scabOard would
probably not be great enough To affect earn
ings materially. The general revival of bust
ness, however and increased activity in all
branches OF trade and manufacture, would in
cidentally improve the business and the earn
ings Of transportcrS. Bankrupt concerns will
not be lifted to solyency by any sudden re-
turn of the unlimited credit which they have
forfeited. But many firms and companies,
now struggling against disaster, would be saved
by a moderate Improvement in traffic.
If France, Germany or England engages in
the struggle financial consequences of the
gravest importance may result. If France, for
example, should be compelled to unlock its
immense store of coin, if Germany should be
forced to abandon for a time its changes in
currency, if England should be threatened in
India or met by foe capable of disturbing its
commerce by maritime warfare, the effects in
this country might be indefinitely increased.
But as matters stand, a prospect Of war in Eu-
rope is a prospect of higher prices for bread
stuils and provisions, larger demand for sound