The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1876-05-31

condition of every part of the country, and
is enabled to foretell, with fair approach
to accuracy, the state of the weather tor the
ensuing eighteen or twenty-four hours but
it does not venture to make predictions
for the next month or even the next week.
In like manner a public journal, with o
corps of alert observers in every part of the
country transmitting what they learn to
headquarters every day by telegraph, can
give faithful reflex of opinions and ten
denotes up to the latest date and predict in
what direction the currents Of the political
atmosphere will move for o short period,
with the storm or clouds or sunshine they
will bring to the favorite candidate of this or
the other locality; but such representations
cannot reach very far into the future, since
| politics, like the weather, is subject to dis
turbing influences which do not admit of
distant calculation. 'sOld Probabilities"
does not create the weather, but only
records it, and with all his science his fore
reports are worth to the public the labor
and cost of gathering, transmitting and in
terpreting the weather signs from all the
scattered posts of observation.
The HERALD acts as a Signal Service
Bureau in politics, and its value. like that of
its meteorological prototype, consists in the
wide range of its observations and the per-
lection OF its machinery for collecting them
at central point and sending them forth to
the country properly formulated and ex-
planned. We may appeal to the history Of
the last three months for proofs of the
almost uniform accuracy Of our predictions
of what was in the immediate future.
Among other instances, we were the first
to discern the causes which have made
Senator Conkling SO strong candidate,
and the growth of his prospects have con-
stantly followed the foreshadowings given
in our columns This rising tide, which we
have watched with so much interest and
have predicted from stage to stage with such
signal success, has not yet reached its
height, but we have all along recognized the
possibility of changes and new develop
ments. Up to the present time Mr.. Conk-
ling is the strongest of the republican can
didates, and with Governor Hayes on the
ticket for Vice President the two important
States of New York and Ohio would be as
secure as any political combination could
make them. But the fairest prospects may
be blighted, as happened to Mr.. Seward in
1860 and to Mr.. Van Buren, in 1874 If Mr..
Conkling should furnish third example of
the same kind from New York the question
where his supporters will bestow their
strength will be one of great Importance,
not merely to the republican party, but to
the country, since. according to present APP
pearances. the republicans will elect the
next President. There is move
ment on foot to substitute Fish
and Hayes for Conkling and Hayes
as the Cincinnati ticket This is one of the
weakest combinations that could be made
with candidates SO respectable. Mr.. Fish
would, no doubt, make q safe, wise, mod
crate President if he could be elected, but
he has no warmly attached body of personal
followers. He lives in state Of isolation
from the active currents of political life
Notwithstanding the solid services he has
rendered in his present station he has done
nothing which appeals to the popular i'm
agination. His Cuban policy was against the
popular instinct, and it would be difficult to
find a rallying cry in any part of his exceed
ingly conservative administration of the
State Department. Approval and esteem,
not enthusiasm, is the sentiment he excites
in the public heart We are on the eve of 4
passionate Presidential canvass, and in Mr.
Fish's character there is nothing of the vigor
and dash which create sympathy in an ex-
cited state of the popular mind.
Events hasten; the Cincinnati Convention
will assemble two weeks from to-day, and
within these fourteen days many political
hopes may be undone. The current will move
with great velocity as it approaches its final
plunge over the cataract. In this brief
period Of unwonted political activity it is
the duty of the great republican party to de-
eide what course it will take if it shall be
candidates who are now most prominent.
Mr.. Washburne is one of the names that
cannot be overlooked, and the one that
would most easily reconcile the differences
and soothe the jealousies which have been
excited by rival aspirations. Mr.. WASH
burne was stanch and sturdy reformer
long before reform had become political
shibboleth and a ladder of ambition. His
admirable and heroic conduct during the
siege Of Paris gives him that strong hold on
the popular imagination which is to be de-
sired in Presidential candidate, and it
would insure him the almost unanimous
vote Of our German citizens If Conkling
and Hayes should be found an impossible
ticket Washburne and Conkling would
sweep the country and carry the election by
storm.
Mn VANDERBILT. The reports from Mr..
Vanderbilt show that he continues to wrestle
with the disease which for some days has
- L. MI