, 1876-11-29

rulnOus t0lIles if actual war is not intend.
ed. The Greeks are purchasing m~at6rieJ
on which they would not waste sixpenco
# they did not know that actual war is
very near at band. The only account Of
the Russian ultimatum which has any aD-
pe8rance of probability shows that Gene
raj Iguatieff demands the self-goyernment
Of Bosnia and the Herzegovina, and the
right to occupy Bulgaria with q European
army, as the least concession which will
content his master. The Grand Duke
Nicholas, who is to communicable, has
been summoned to Liyadia, and in fact,
all things point to an expectation among
the group Of men who directly control the
Russian policy and army that either war
or an armed occupation of European Tur-
key may be expected this year. There Is
no peace at any price in the Russian
mind.
On the other hand, Of course it is posi-
biz that the Pashas may surrender, aud one
or two arguments may weigh heavily in
their minds. a war with Russia without
an ally is aIwSys a very formidable affair
for Turks, because it endangers the Asiatic
possessions, in which they hope to reign tor
centuries, almost as much as the European
possessions, which they know they must
give up. They are ut least as much alarmed
for Armenia as Bulgaria, aud may be &C.
quaiuted with dangers on the Asiatic
side, where every peasant is an oppressed
man, of which Europe has at best O very
feeble idea. If they can "arrange" with
Russia by herself, they will, at a price,
obtain at least security, some comfort in
in their lives, and a certainty that their
own mob, whish if irritated will not pass
a vote of no conf lencP, but will take their
heads, will not be permitted to attack
them. So strongly is the impulse to settle
with Russia sometimes felt in Turkey,
that Abdul Aziz is believed to have made
a definite agreement with IgnOtief, under
which ConstantinopIe would have been
occupied by a Russian guard. That belief
may be uDtounded, though we do not think
it is, but Its existence shows that the poll
cy indicated is not without support in high
quarters in Constantinople. The Turks
may take this line, and then the beauty Of
LcrJ Derby's policy will be clearly mani
fest, for there will be no war, all The con-
ceigabio results of war, and especially the
results which England dislikes, having
been attained by Russia at o blow. Tur-
key, under these circumstances, would be
politically a vassal State. But we see no
evidence whatever that the Turks intend
to take this line. On the contrary, their
idea is clearly to conciIiate Europe by APP
pearing to yield everything demanded by
diplomatists, but really yielding nothing.
They answer the demand for a six weeks
armistice, not by granting it, as is errone-
ousiy asserted here, but by granting 1t
under conditions for its extension in the
event of no peace being made which Rus
STA has already refused. The Pashas them
selves are the second parties to the con-
tract, and they can of course make nego-
tiation endless ; and their present demand
is, therefore, the old one in another form.
As to selEgovernment, they make no con-
cession, except, it is rumoured, as regards
Bosnia and the Herzegovina, and they are
from their point of view probably In the
right. They know that with Bulgaria free
or Russian, European Turkey is untenable;
that the Greek question muat instantly
come to the front, that they cannot keep
Thessaly, Epirus, or Crete without n
nous malsacres, and that Europe will not
bear them. Hobart Pasha's feet is very