The New York herald., 1876-10-31

A comparison of the two tables shows that
both parties claim among the States seer
tain" for their candidates New York New
together, 81 votes, and if they should all go
either way they would defeat the candidate
against whom they cast their votes With
out them Hayes would have but 10 and Til
den but 141 votes. But all three are ac-
knowledged by both sides to be close States,
their lists Examining further we find that
the republicans give up Florida, Louisiana
and Mississippi, and place Indiana and Con-
necticut among the doubtful States. The
democrats claim as certain" both Connecti-
cut and Indiana, claim Louisiana and Mis-
sissippi and put Florida among the s'doubt-
full"
IT. now, we take the Hayes table, which
excludes Indiana and Connecticut already,
and deduct from it also New York. this would
still leave Hayes 189 votes, or four more than
enough to elect, and yet give the democrats
ever, the republicans should lose either
North Carolina or Wisconsin, in addition to
New York, they would be beaten. They
could not, on their own reckoning, afford to
lose even New Jersey in addition to New
York, except in contingency we shall con-
slider further on. On the other hand, if we
scrutinize the Tilden table, we shall find
that to make up for the loss of New York
the democrats would have to carry not only
Indiana, which they claim as certain and
which the Republican Committee put down
as doubtful, but enough States to give them
twenty-five votes, from among those which
they admit to be doubtful; for instance, Flor
ida, Wisconsin, South Carolina and Cali
fornia, which have an aggregate Of twenty
seven votes. AS the democrats themselves
put these States down as only probably for
Tilden" it must. be held doubtful whether
they can carry them all.
But, still examining the Tilden list, we
notice that even if the democrats carry New
York, Connecticut and New Jersey, they
cannot, on their own showing, afford to lose
Indiana, without getting at least five or six
votes from States which they admit to be
doubtful. Granting them all they claim as
certain, and granting, therefore. that the re-
publcans lose New York, Connecticut and
New Jersey, the democrats would still fail if
they should lose Indiana That is to say,
on the Tilden official list, if the democrats
lose Indiana, they will get but one hundred
and eighty votes. On the Hayes official list,
if the republicans lose New York, Connecti-
cut and New jersey, but carry Indiana, they
will still have one hundred and ninety-tive
votes. 1t is evident from this that, by the
admission of the managers of both parties,
Indiana is an extraordinarily important
State. The democrats officially admit that
they cannot certainly succeed without it.
The republicans seem to show that if they
should lose the very uncertain Eastern
States, New York, New Jersey and Connecti-
cut, which last they do not claim, they can
still hope to succeed if they carry Indiana.
Can they carry Indiana? They them
selves put it down as doubtful. though it is
hardly more doubtful than some of the
other States which they claim as certain.
In fact, everything is doubtful just now.
Though both parties are sanguine of sue
cess the fact is that at heart both wish the
battle over; each is anxious, and the best
| judges, the closest calculators, privately ad-
NIT that there never was an election when
the unknown quantities were so great and
various For instance, there are shrewd re-
publicans who believe that if election day is
fair and warm they will carry Connecticut.
There are democrats who believe that the
| large registration in this city denotes Q