Belmont chronicle. [volume] (St. Clairsville, Ohio) 1855-1973, 1876-04-20
THE PRESIDENCY.
The First Ballot at Cincinnati.

have chosen delegates to the Cincinnati Con.
vention, and yet people are already ciphering
out the probable result of the first ballot.
Every State is claimed by some candidate,
and not few are down upon the states of two
or three. In the cases of States where no
Conventions have been held, the attitude of
the leading journals, the views of members of
Congress, and the letters received from prom
inent politicians furnish the indications of the
drift of things that are relied upon in making
estimates for waut of more accurate data. In
one sense these efforts to forecast result that
may depend upon contingencies which cannot
possibly be taken into the account at this time
are idle speculations, and might well be cast
aside as rubbish, but in another they have
some vafue. When taken collectively, com
pared, and the manifest errors arising from
partisanship corrected, there remains a sum of
the best sttainable information as to the pres
ent situation. | may all be valueless fort
night hence, and it may accurately foreshadow
the issue of ne contest. Asking the reader to
accept the statements for only what they arc
worth as speculations, will give first, the
strength of the rival candidates on the first
ballot, as claimed by their friends, and then
an estimate of what vote the facts so far as
known make it probable that they will get.
Mr.. Blaine's partisans claim as certain the
full vote of Maine, New Hampshire, Massa-
chusetts, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West
Virginia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wiscon-
sin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas, Cal
ifornia, Nevada, Oregon, and all the Terri
tories-altogetlier 246 votes. They also expect
to get Rhode Island, South Carolina, Louisi-
ana, Florida, and Illinois, making 81 votes
more. If they should realize the full measure
of their anticipations their candidate, Mr..
Blaine, would start off with 334 votes, and
would lack only 81 of enough to nominate
him.
Senator Morton's supporters claim Indiana,
Illinois, Missouri, and the whole South, ex-
cept Kentucky and Maryland. According to
this estimate of his strength, which is of
course considerably exaggerated, he will have
266 votes. The Morton men do not differ
entiate their States into certain and doubtful,
perhaps because they are all doubtful except
Indiana
Mr. Bristow has no organization working
for him here, and there is absolutely nobody
to be found who assumes to conduct the can
vass in his behalf and is ready to furnish fig
ures as to his probable vote. The Bristow
movement is running itself among the people,
apparently without much help from the poll
ticians. 1t is therefore impossible to state the
number of delegates claimed for him, because
there is no one to make claims.
Senator Conklins appears to count on the
complimentary vote Of the entire New York
delegation on the first ballot, though how his
friends can make it up with the Curtis faction
is more than can say. New Jersey is also
claimed for him, and efforts are being made to
rally few votes in the West and South on
the strength of his White House influence,
but with poor prospects of success. Gov.
Hayes will of course have the full vote of
Ohio, and Gov. Hartranft Of Pennsylvania.
MIR. E. B. Washburne is still possible candi-
date, although the Illinois men say that in
asking for the nomination for Governor he
agreed to abandon all aspirations for the Pres.
idency. His friends it seems insisted upon
knowing the direction in which he intended
they should carry him before taking him upon
their shoulders. Sitting out exaggerated and
improbable claims of strength from the above
estimates, we may make up the following
statement of what from from present indica-
tions promises to be the result of the first bal
lot at Cincinnati:
For. Mr. Blaine-Maine, New Hampshire,
part of Massachusetts (say 1S votes out of &C.
Rhode Island, 10 votes from New York, Del
aware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina,
Louisiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois,
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas, Califor-
mia, Oregon, Nevada, and the nine Territories
in all 256 votes.
For Mr.. Morton-Indiana, Missouri, Ar
kansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Texas, Tennes-
see, West Virginia, Georgia, Florida, and the
District of Columbia total, 1Ss votes.
For Gov. ft-Pennsylvania's So
votes.
For Gov. Hayes-Ohio's A votes.
For Mr.. COnkling so votes from
New York and possibly the 1S votes of New
Jersey.
For Bristow-Vermont, Connecticut, part
of Massachusetts,, a few votes from New
York, South Carolina, if the Chamberlain
party controls the Convention, and the Ken
tucky delegation-less than 75 votes in all.
This is very small showing, but it must be
born in mind that the above estimates in the
case of the other candidates are based upon
the probable success of the organized efforts
being made in their behalf, while Mr.. Bris-
tow's candidacy depends entirely upon the
breaking down of these organizations by the
force of public opinion. He is not around try
ing to bag delegates like Mr.. Blaine or Mr..
Morton, and if he succeeds it will be because
the snares of those experienced fowlers will
be swept away by the rising gale of the popu-
lar will. Mr.. Bristow will therefore prove
either very weak candidate or an irresistible
one. 1t seems certain that he has broken in
upon Mr.. Blaine's forces in New England, and
if he can do the same thing in Illinois and the
North West, and can get two-tAirds of the
Ohio delegation on the second Ballot, the tide
might set in his favor too powerfully to be
turned. 1t must be admitted, however, that
the prospects, as viewed from a Washington
level. strongly favor Mr.. Blaine,
MIR. Morton is likely to attain his maximum
strength on the first ballot. There is no pos
sibility OF growth, and his nomination is an
almost impossible contingency. Some of the
oldest Republicans in Congress declare that it
would disrupt the party. A New York men,
Der, very much respected for his good judg-
ment, said to-day that at least twenty of his
fellow Renuhlcans had told him that II Nor