New-York tribune., 1876-04-10
THE PRESIDENCY.
THE FIRST BALLOT AT CINCINNATI.

TrRoM STAFF CORRESPONDENT OF TIE TRIBuSE.l
WASHINGTON, April Mot half the States have
chosen del, ties to the Cincinnati Convention, and
yet people aIe already ciphering out the probable
result of tLe rst ballot. Every State is claimed by
some candidate and not few are down upon the
states of two or three In the Of States where
no Conventions have been held. the attitude Of the
leading journals, the views of members of Congress,
and the letters received from prominent politicians
furnsh the indications Of the drift of things that are
relied upon ia making estimates for want OF more
accurate data. In these efforts to forecast
a result that may depend upon contingencies which
cannot possibly be taken into the account at this
time idle speculations, and might well be
cast aside as rubbish, but in another they have
some value. When taken collectively, compared,
and the manifest errors arising from partlsanshlp
corrected there remains of the best attainabe
information to the present situation. Ii may all
be vauelcss fortnight hence, and it
may accurately foreshadow the issue of
the contest. Asking the reader to accept the
statements for only what they worth as specula-
tons will give first the strength Of the rival candl-
dates on the first ballot claimed by their friends,
and then an estimate of what vote the facts so far
known make it probable that they will get.
Mr.. Blaine's partisans claim as certain the full
vote of Maine, Ncw-Ilanipshire, Massachusetts,,
Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia,
North Carolina, Michigan. Wisconsin, Iowa, Mime
sota Nebraska Kansas. California, Nevada, Oregon,
and all the TerriOries-altogether 2iG votes. They
also expect to get Rhode Island. South Carolina,
Louisiana Florida, and Illinois, making 81 votes
more. If they should realize the full measure of
their antcipations their candidate, Mr.. Blaine,
would start OFF with 1874 votes and would lack only
81 of enough 10 nominate him.
Spua MOrtou's Indiana,
nos, Missouri, and the whole South. except Ken
tuciy and Maryland. According to this estimate of
his strength which is of considerably eXag-
gerated, he will have 266 votes. The Morton men
do not diflerentiate their States into certain and
doubtful perhaps because they all doubtful ex-
cept Indiana
Nh Bristow has no organization working for him
here, and there is absolutely nobody TO be found
who assumes to conduct the canvass in his behalf
and is ready 10 furnish figures to his probable vote
The Bristow movement is running itself among tie
people, apparently without much help from the poli-
ticians Ii is therefore impossible to state the num-
Der of delegates claimed for him, because there is
no one to make claims.
Senator Conkling appears to count on the cOInpli-
mentary vote of the entire New-Yor1 delegation on
the first ballot though how his friends can make il
mp with the Curtis faction is more than can say.
being made to rally Il few votes in the West and
South on the strength of his White House influence,
but with poor prospects OF success Gov. Hayes will
Of course have the full vote Of Ohio, and Gov.
Hartranft of Pennsylvania. Mr.. L. Is. Washburne
il still possible candidate, although the Illinois
men say that in asking for the nomination for Gov
crnor he aglGed to abandon ali aspirations for the
Presidency. His friends it seems insisted upon
knowing the direction in which he intended they
should carry him before taking him upon their
shoulders. Sitting out exaggerated and improbable
claims OF strength from the above estimates We
may makeup the following statement of what from
present indications promises to be the resnlt of the
first ballot at Cincinnati
For MIR. Blaine-Maine, New-iIampshrc part Of
Massachusetts, say Il votes out Of 26, Rhode Island,
10 votes from New-York, Delaware, Maryland, Vir-
gnia, North Carolina, louisiana Michigan, Wiscon-
sin, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas,
California Oregon, Nevada, and the nine Territories
in all 2j0 votes.
For Mr.. Mort0n-Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas,
Mississippi, Alabama, Texas, Tennessee West Yir-
gnin Georgia, Florida, and the District of Colum-
ba-total, 1873 votes.
For Gov Hartranft-P Pennsylvania So votes
FoI Gov. Hayes-Ohio's "A votes.
For Mr. Conkling-Abolit 80 votes from New-York
and possibly the 1S votes of New-Jersey.
For Bristow-Vermont, Connecticut, part of Mas
sachusetts, "a few votes from Ncw-York South Caro-
liua, If the Chamberlain party controls the Con-
vention, and the Kentucky dclegation-less than 70
votes in all. This is very small showing, bat i
must be borne in mind that the above estimates i'll
the of the other candidates are based upon the
probable success Of the organized efforts being made
in their behalf, while Mr. BristOw's candidacy de
pend6 entirely upon the breaking down of these or
l,tr4 4Io NJ ia IL
not around trying to bag delegates like Mr.. Blaine
Mr. Morton and if he succeeds it will be because the
snares of those experienced fowlcrs Will be
swept away by the rising gale of the popu-
lar viii. Mr.. Brstow will therefore prove
either a very weak candidate an irresistible
Que. 1t seems certain that he has broken in upon
Mr.. BlGincs forces i'll New-EnQland and if he can do
the same thing in Illinois and the Northwest, and
can get twO-thirds of the Ohio delegation the
second ballot the tide might set in his favor too
powerfully to he turned Ii must be admitted.
however, that the prospects, as viewed from a Wash
ington level. strongly favor Mr. Blaine.
Mr.. Morton is likely to attain his maximum
strength Oh the first ballot. There is no possibility
of growth, and his nomination is an almost impOSsi-
Bile contingency. Some of the eldest Republicans in
Congress declare that il would disrupt the party.
Ncw-York member, very much respected for his good
Judgment, said to-day that at least twenty OF bis
fellow Republicans had told him that if Morton were
nominated they would refuse to support him. As
for Mr. Conkne, no one here, unless it be the
Senator himself and Mr. A. Is. Cornell,
who is now in Washington. regards his
nomination as q possibility worth taking
into account. Gov Hayes just possibility, and
a rather remote one al that. If Mr. Blaine should.
fail to get majority of the delegates if the Brstow
movement should come to nothing, aud If the Morton
men, the Conkng men, and Alr. Canerons Pennsyl-
vania delegation should join the Ohio delegation,