The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1876-06-02


The action of the st. Louis Convention will
depend SO much on the nomination made at
Cincinnati that it is not safe to speculate
very confidently on the chances of the sew
eral democratic candidates The Democratic
National Convention will have the great ad-
vantage of knowing the enemy's plan of
campaign, and it would be idiotic for the
democratic party to forego this advantage by
settling on candidate beforehand idiotic
as it would be for the commander Of an army
to settle his movements before the arrival of
his scouts and spies when he was certain
they would bring full disclosure of the
military councils of the other side. In the
two weeks which will intervene between the
Cincinnati and the ST. Louis Convention it
will be seen how the republican nomination
is received by the country. The democrats
can then form an intelligent judg-
ment as to the most expedient candi-
date to be put into the field by themselves.
If Conkling should be the republican candi-
date it might be deemed polite to nominate
o Western candidate to run against him,
and SO utilize to the utmost the local pride
and distinctive views of the West. II, on
the other hand, Washburne should receive
the Cincinnati nomination, he would be so
strong on the reform issue that the most
conspicuous democratic representative of
reform would have to be pitted against him,
and the chances, even then, would be against
the success of the democratic party. The
nomination of either Bristow or Washburne
at Cincinnati would force the st. Louis
Convention to take Tilden. But the nomi-
nation of Bristow is a political impossi-
bility; and against any other republican can
didate, with the single exception Of Wash
burne, the democratic party would feel that
it was as safe without Tilden as standard
bearer as with him. The supporters of
Governor Tilden have equally strong
reasons for desiring and for dreading the
nomination of Mr. Washburne. They may
desire it as creating necessity for
pitting the strongest reform democrat
against him; but they should also dread it
because it is probable that Washburne would
carry even New York against Tilden on the
reform issue. Washburne established his
reputation as the unfinching foe of jobs and
corruption at time when it was impossible
to suspect him of any by lends, and this will
count for great deal against any candidate
who did not signalize his zeal for reform
until personal and political capital was to
be made out of it,
Governor Tilden seems to be making
steady gains outside of New York; but most
Of the delegates reckoned as favorable to
him are unpledged, and are therefore at full
liberty to support any other candidate if a
Convention should render his nomination
inexpedient. In estimating his chances it
must be constantly borne in mind that
it requires two-thirds of all the votes
to nominate him, and it is already GER
tain that he will not 60 into the Convention
with anything like that proportion of the
delegates Delaware, Maryland, Indiana,
Ohio, New Jersey, Tennessee, Pennsylvania,
North Carolina, West Virginia, Arkansas
and Kentucky will prefer other candidates,
and two-thirds of the Missouri delegates are
opposed to him. A strong minority Of the
and knowledge of this fact, which will be
made very public at st. Louis, will prevent
a concentration of the necessary two-thirds
upon Mr.. Tilden unless the nomination Of
Mr.. Washburne at Cincinnati shall reduce
the Democratic Convention to sHobson's
choice" 1t is certain that the twc-thirds
rule will not be rescinded certain that
more than one-third of the delegates yet
chosen are anti-Tilden certain that the
most vigorous and dexterous politicians of
New York have deadly hostility to Mr.
Tilden and yet, if Mr.. Washburne, with
his Incompatible record as the antagonist Of
corrupt jobs, is put into the field by the re-
publicans the st. Louis Convention may feel
compelled to nominate Governor Tilden as
desperate last resource. In any other con-
tingency the two-thirds rule is pretty GER
tain to defeat him.