New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1876-11-03

CONFIDENCE UNIVERSAL IN THEIR RANKs-EsII-
MATED MAJORTIEs IN DEMOCRATIC AND IN
REPUBLICAN COUNTIEs-REICRN OF TIE BOUR-
BONs.
[FRoMA STAFF CORRESPONDENT OF TIE TRIBUNE.l
SYRACUSE Oct 31.-"Oh we shall carry the
State and our majority will be a large one" said
member of the Democratic State Committee to me
in Oswego yesterday. l suppose have heard this
assertion made with equal positlveness by Demo
Gratis in other parts of the State at least hundred
times within the past two weeks. sometimes even
suspect that it is part Of Gov 1idens plan Of cam
paen that his followers in every county, town. and
school district shall join in grand chorus of
boasting in regard to the great things the Demo
cratic party is 10 accomplish on election day l
have heard il everywhere ] have becn in strong
Republican as well as in Democratic counties;
where the anti-Iiden Democrats are numerous as
well as where there none. This everlasting din
like the beating of Chinese gongs is certainly one of
the most peculiar features of tins remarkable cam
pagn.
Hoping to learn something Of the basis on which
the Democrats rest their hopes, continued the con-
versation with the gentleman already quoted i'll this
letter He spoke without reserve, but not officially
because il is several weeks since he has been in
New-York. and presume he does not know what
the latest information received there by his commit
tee NAV be. lie said that he had been reading the
letters of Republican correspondents from different
parts of the State, and he found that
they almost invariably reported the major
tiles likely TO be secured IN the strong
Republican counties as considerably smaller
than they were in 1872. For instance, Oneida
gave Gen Grant 5000 majority four years ago,
while the highest figure at which the Republicans
now place il is 1900, with an admitted possibility
of its going down to 1000 Jefferson County gave
g 700 in 1872 and the Republicans clam II now by
only about 1000 st. Lawrence County gave Grant
about 1000 III 1872, and will certainly give Hayes
and Wheeler 900 less this year. These were fair
SAMPLES He Lad heard of no county where the Re
publicans expect TO have a much larger majority
than in 1872, while the average falling off III the
majority as far as he had seen Republican reports
was from 20 to 80 per cent. If he took the Demo
cratic reports from the counties land he thought
them as likely to be correct, the average loss to the
Republicans in the counties they control will be con
sderably greater.
The Democratic counties, exclusive Of New-York,
would he thought give 10000 majority for Gov.
Tilden and certainly not less than $4,000. Several
of these were carried by the Republicans i'll 1872,
which they have no hope of saving this year The
aggregate of the majOriies III the Republican conn
ties in 1872 was 81, 734 that OF the Democratic,
81 ,278 of which 23 147 secured in the City and
majorities reduced only 20 per cent, winch he
considered very conservative estimate, there would
he left 81 1877 10 be overcome by the Democrats II
| in addition $4,000 of this wiped out north OF
| Harlem River, New-YOrk and Brooklyn would have
| to give Gov. Tiden about 53 600 to elect him.
In this estimate, he said, lac had accorded to the
| Republicans in every case the maiorities they
claimed. His own Judgment was that the Republi-
/ can losses when the returns were compared with
| those of 1872 would be considerably larger than
! those for which he had made allowance and that
the Democratic counties exclusive of New-York
would give to Gov. Tilden more than 10000
majority. He thought that the impression which, he
said is generally abroad that the Democrats have
the better chance of carrying the State was worth
| 10000 OF 1900 votes to them ut the lowest esti-
mate These were the reasons why he believed Gov.
Tilden's majority in this State would be large one
have no comments TO make upon this except TO
say that while am convinced that there will be
general falling off of the majorties IN Republican
counties if the returns compared with those of
1879. this will not be on account Of any general de-
sertion Of the Republican party by those who have