The Democratic advocate. [volume] (Westminster, Md.) 1865-1972, 1876-01-22

1t is a fact well established, aud perfect
Jy familiar to every commercial observer,
that the fury of panic is directed FIRST at
the large banks, business houses, and man
ufactories The year after its occurrence,
and the year following that, the smaller
houses feel the pressure of the times, and
such as are too deeply in debt begin to 90
down. The annual number of failures
continues very large, but the average liza.
bilities are very much smaller The reac.
ton reaches the laboring classes last Of all.
Looking at the record above, the truth is
seen to be illustrated. The failures in
1857 were 1882 in the next year, l.,
225 the year after the still large number
of 1913. But the average liabilities,
which in 1857 were $4,000, were in
1888 only $4,000, and in 1859 only
$4,000. The same principle is visible in
the averages for 1861 and the TWO follow.
Ing years, which were in 1861, S29, 900
in 1862 aud 1863, $4,000. The reac.
ton of 1861 did not produce its natural
fruit 10 a sustained aamber of failures for
a year or two following, for the reason
that an extraordinary cause internosed
the war, with its vast increase of the cur.
rency and enormous expenditures ofmoney
by the nation, and every State, county,
city, and town. But eliminating the
effect produced by imitation and an abund
ance Of active capital, the natural tendency
of a business reaction is seen in the figures
given for the three years last cited Now
take the list three years. In 1873, the
number of failures was 5,lS3 in 1874, 1t
was more, namely, $3.50; in 1875, more
still, 7,74O. But now see the averages.
In 1873, the average liabilities were s44,.
600 in 1874, $4,000 in 1875, S25, 900.
In other words, the wave of business de.
preston has passed beyond the great hou-
SEES, and is now exhansting its force on
those of more limited capital, a symptom
unyarying and infallible Of the beginning
of better days.
From these statistics alone it is evident
that an immediate improvement, however
subdued, can reasonably be excepted in
the tendency of affairs in the commercial
world, One reason Of the great number
Of failures in 1874 aud 1873 is undoubt.
eddy the systematic retronchment that
has taken place in public and private ex-
penditures. This retrenchment in most
lines of business and in private life since
1873 has now been carried about as far as
it is likely to go, and the volume of trade
Of the country ought now steadily to in
crease. The sales of the present Winter
in this city indicate that the lowest limit
OF contraction Of business has substantially
been reached
Then tue crops Of the year were extre,
mely good, and the demand for them
abroad excellent. Everybody knows the
stimulus to business all over the country
that this invariably brings. The large ex-
portation of products of the soil since the
war has been one means OF enabling bust.
ness to settle back to a peace basis far
more gradually and safely than it other,
wise would have done The market there
has been for the great staple crops of the
south, for example, has enabled that Sec
ton Of the country to begin buying extern
sively again. Then there is a whisper of
hope to the cotton goods trade IN the
increasing foreign demand, Within six
months sale of American cotton goods
has begun in England and Continental
Europe, market never before open to
them. Enthusiastic merchants 10 this city
declare that "the problem ofan overstocked
market is solved" The kilograms of Mr..
Hathaway, Treasurer Of the Border City
Mills in Fall River, from England, where
he was sent by the Fall River manufac-
turers to study the question of sending
goods to England, are very satisfactory !;
and the reports and orders from Germany
still more 50.
The general reduction of public expen-
ditures, the approach of the Centennial
Exposition, with its silver promises Of &C.
tivity, the increasing trade with Canada,
and the possibility of some renewed rail
road construction this Summer, are all
encouraging. Against the reasons for
believing that the brighter, better days Of
full confidence and general activity will be
brought by the coming Spring and sum
mer, there are only to be urged the un
certainty that always prevails just before
the parties are organized for Presiden-
tial campaign, and the possibility Of a
tereign war, The reader oaa Judge for
himself how slight these reasons are
Neo K1rk Tribune.