Washington standard. [volume] (Olympia, Wash. Territory) 1860-1921, 1876-09-30
THE THREE OCTOBER sTArEs


On the 10th Of next month three of
the central States hold elections, whose
results will exert a powerful and perhaps
decisive effect upon the Presidential
contest. We refer to West Virginia,
Ohio and Indiana.
In 1856 Ohio voted for Fremont. but
Indiana went for Buchanan. Since Tat
time each of these States has invariably
cast its electoral votes for the Republi-
can nominee for President, giving him.
with scarcely one exception, a heavy
majority of the popular vote. West
Virginia was admitted to the Union in
1862. 1t voted for President for the
first time in 1864, when Mr.. Lincoln
obtained a majority of about 13. 900.
In the two campaigns of 1868 and 1872
1t gave its electoral votes to Grant.
Tested by the results of past years.
these three States have been as trust.
worthy supporters of the candidates
and measures of the Republican party
as any States in the Union except Yer
mont, Maine, and Rhode Island. On
one or two occasions, and under pecu-
liar circumstances, the Democrats have
succeeded in carrying them by small
maJorities. Ohio, however, we believe
has never given an absolute Democratic
majority for any State candidate since
the Republican party was formed.
Two years ago, when the people. ire
spective of party, rose up and stamped
out the thlrd-term conspiracy, there
was an aggregate majority for the Dem
ocratic and Liberal candidates for
Congress in each of these States. But
that was sporadic case, and it does
not vacate the general rule that places
West Virginia, Ohio, and Indiana
among the steady-going Republican
States, upon which that party has been
wont to rely with confidence in Presi-
dental contest.
But let us look at the details. As in
respect to Vermont and Maine. so in
regard to these three States the proper
standard for determining the signifi.
canoe OF the results in October next will
be to compare them with the results of
the October elections in previous Pres
idential years. Confning ourselves to
the October elections in the Presiden.
tial years since it became State, West
Virginia has given an average Republi-
can majority on its State ticket of {. 200.
Beginning with the year when Mr.. Lin
coin was first chosen President, Ohio. &C.
cording to this rule, has cast an average
Republican majority for its State ticket
in October of 29, 500. During the same
period, Indiana has given its State
ticket in October nm average Republican
majority of 1900.
In the light of these facts, it is rea-
sonable to say if the Republicans ex-
pect to elect Hayes they must carry
West. Virginia, Ohio, and Indiana in
October. Possibly they might SPARE
West Virginia; but il they hops 10
stand the slightest chance for success
in November, they must sweep Ohio in
October by majority equal to the
average of the last sixteen years as pre-
sented above, and they must at the
same time elect their ticket in Indiana
by handsome majority.
The National Republican COMMITTEES
are making loud boasts of their ability
to carry all three of these States in Oc-
tober. These vauntines imply an ad-
mission that it is absolutely necessary
tor them to carry them. However. with
the facts and figures we have presented,
every one will have the means of esti.
mating the significance of these impor-.
tant elections. The Democrats might
lose two of them without impairinc
their chances of success in November
should they carry two, nobody will have
any doubt OF the election of Tilden. TT
tney should happen to carry the whole
three, Hayes would be practically
thrown out of the canvass.