The New Orleans Democrat., 1876-08-14

i
an English craft sailing under French
colors.
PROBABILITIES.
yetran Politicians views Of the Proba-
bile Chances of Battle.
tCol. Mcclure of the Philadelphia Pressl
The strength OF the Democratic party
in the national contest Is not In its plat
form. although, next to the Cincinn nati
platform, drawn by Carl Schurz. In 1872.
Tor the Greeley campaign, that given
out nt st. Louis Is the most admirable
political deliverance the country ever
had. But of itself 1t would bring no
strength to the Democracy in the Presi-
Dental struggle. The great element I
power held by that party ia the struggle
IA the fact that Gov. Tildcn ls himself
confesst,dly typical of the declarations
and aims OF the platform itself. Ii the
Den ocrats shall succeed in the national
contest it will be solely because the
nation trusts Mr.. Tilden while 1t dis
trusts Democracy.
"As to the result of that contest, 1t is
too soon to make any reliable estimates.
The mass of voters who will in all
probability decide the national battle
may now be classed among the doubtful
and the Indifferent politically speak
ing) OF the voters OF the country. Never
before ut this stage OF a Presidential
cont est was there anything like so large
a class Of Intelligent voters disaffected
In their allegiance to all party control.
And the disaffection is not confined TO
the Republican party. There are to-day
nearly rs many Democrats who would
vote against an unsatisfactory Demo-
cratic ticket as there are Republicans
who would be glad to convince them
selves that they should vote against
HAYES. Therefore, until the Indiana
and Ohio elections are held in October,
it would be impossible to make any
safe calculations as to general
result. The Kentucky, Vermont and
Maine elections, to be held
during this and next month.
may measurably indicate. by their in
general tide Of public opinion is tend
ing as between Tilden and Hayes. But
that tide will culminate in Ohio and In
diana on the second Tuesday OF Octo-
Der next. II these two States shall
both go Republican or Democratic, the
contest will be settled. / would regard
Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York,
| Connecticut, New Hampshire. Illinois,
| Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, Ne.
yada, California and Oregon as reason
ably certain to follow, in November, the
united lead OF Ohio and Indiana in Oc-
tobcr. Should Indiana vote with the
Democrats aud Ohio with the Republi-
cans, then will there be a desperate
battle for every one OF the States
named above, and the result will be-
doubtful, with the chances in favor OF
Tilden.
"The great battle, therefore will be in
Indiana, for Tilden and Hendricks must
carry that State in October to have any
reas sonably fair chance OF success
| in November. The Republicans
can afford to lose it and yet have a
chance of success. regard Indiana as
very likely to elect the Democratic
Stale ticket in October. / judge 50 be-
cause it is naturally Democratic State,
although very close.
There is great devotion to Hendricks
In that state, for he Is justly beloved by
political organizer, equaled in Indiana
only by Oliver p. Morton. Had Morton
been the nominee at Cincinnati. / be.
lieve he would have carried Indiana
even against Hendricks. He Is the
ableet and most desperate OF the great
leaders Of the Republican party. He
will now, of course, make u great strug-
gle to save his State for Hayes, as he is
In fiLct, the author Of Hayes nomina.
tion, and will be the premier and ruling
spirit of Hayes administration, il he il
elected; but he will be 10000 or more
! votes weaker leading for another man
than for himself, while Hendricks will
correspondingly stronger. These con
siderations, with Tilden's we'll known
mastery organizing powers, and his
! al hilt IN nptu m n nd nil fha napnaEurN
resources for q great contest, make me
class Indiana with the Democratic States
In October, and probably by from i0,0O'
to 5000 majority. The 'greenback' or
ganizatian in that State will not make
any material diversion. Williams, the
Granger and Democratic candidate fol
Governor, is it's natural ally, and will IL
the end command its vote.
"Ohio will be desperately contested
Tilden and Hendricks are too wei
versed In leadership not to understand
that every necessity for Republican
effort that they make in Ohio will re
lieve Indiana to that extent. and the!
will therefore compel a pretty fair divi
sion of effort and resources on the Re
publican side between Ohio and In
diana. The Republicans must carry
Ohio In October, or Hayes will be en-
tirely outside the ring. And more thar
that--they must carry it by the ole
party majority OF from 10000 to rs. 900
i or it will be accepted as defeat. 1t Il
barely possible that Ohio may go Dem
ocratic In October. There will certaiEl.
be more fears cherished by Republican
on that subject six weeks hence thai
there are now; but the success OF tn,
Republicans is more than probable.
should not be surprised to see Indiana
vote Democratic and Ohio Republican
by about the same majority, and II 50, j
would clearly forshadow the election o
Tilden.
"As to the Liberals OF Pennsylvania
there is no organization in the State, no
has there been any since 1872. Two
thirds of the Republican voters OF thi
State who supported Greeley are eithe
for Tilden out and out or strongly In
clined that way, and will doubtless vot'
for him unless some characteristic Dem
oorotic folIv shall drive them aWAV