The New York herald., 1876-09-30
THE SOUTH.
The Presidential Canvass in the Re-
constructed States.
TILDEN'S CHANCES GOOD
What May Be Expected if Indiana
Goes democratic.
RICHMOND. Va. Sent. 2s. 1876.

'lno sohu SCUM ID an expression now m uch used
by the republicans as bugbear and by the democrats
as boast and as 1t ia full Of significance have care.
fully investigated the political condition Of the Atlantic
and Gull States Ny object has been twofold, to ar
rive At just conclusions 10 whether the South la
now, likely to be- solid in its position In the Pres
idential election and II whether such unanmity OF
opinion justly calculated TO alarm patriotic citizens
at the North who care more TOR country than party
and who being alarmed this account will probably
act as TO oppose solid North to the union OF the
South.
THE OUTLOOK IN THE sourH.
My information as 10 the condition and probable ac-
tion OF the two virginas, tho Caronas and the Gulf
Statos Is derived from the Views of their leading men
and from data obtained in general intercourse with
their people during the last three months nnd tho
same general causes operating everywhere to produce
tho same general condition OF things In the mountain
regions OF the vrginias and North Carolina and to
moro limited extent In Georgia and Alabama, there
was Union sentiment which exhibited itself In actual
offence against the confederacy and refusal to ooey
Its conscrpt apd tax laws In those sections there
were and are few negroes, and tho White Unionists
consist mainly OF the poor aud illiterato rustcs,
whose feeling rather OF opposition to laws that In
commoded them than attachment to a Union Of which
they knew little and for which they cared less In the
Piedmont and coast regions the negro population
and 10 massed, and the whites were unanimously for
the coniederacy The consequence that the
tains there are ies whi,e republicans and in tho low
country there almost With these differences
the white population Of the States named divided by
the ''color line" That is all the whites nearly arc
democrats and the blacks republi-
The whites have all the property, all the
education all the means OF organization and diffusion OF
nformaton-tho post Office the telegraph, the press,
horses, carriages, wagons-to arouse, TO excite and
TO convey the voters to the polls In opposition to
these the blacks havo blind devoted ddsnce and
reliance on their leaders, who for several years.
the carpet baggers and scalawags so called, but who
had gradually but surely been replaced and
by men OF their own color-preachers class leaders
ana few educated men Of color who have como
among them. Tho local leaders and preachers, how.
ever have more OF their confidence than of higher
grade, being moro in. sympathy and circumstances
with them With this arraying Of social forces all on
sde and only numbers on the other, It has boen
plain for years that the whites would their
troll OF the State governments they aroused
themselves sufficiently to mako the effort To pus the
matter in plain shape Is seltevdent that if all tho
lower aborers, the stevedores. tho draymen, the
educated and nonpropcrty class In the city OF New
York were, on some great excitement to combiuc
together by themselves aud OBTAIN possession OF the
city government without money, without education,
without enlighen leaders and without press they
could only hold until the minority owning and con-
trolling all these means OF influence Sufficiently
aroused combine and overthrow the ignorant major
ity. The minority would do this by every means-bv
persuasion, by dividing and producing disscnsons
among their ignorant opponents, and by dcbauching
them by buying their leaders-in all those ways
which society imperiIied protects its existence.
THE MATTER AS IT STANDS.
II s just this operation that Is going In the
SouIh Virginia made the supreme effort In 1862 ana
since then the negro question has been OF minor
quence here North Carolina, Georgia year later,
and only last year. Alabama Mississippi aud Arkansas
havo done the same thing North Carolina occupies
an exceptional position as does LOUISIANA as shalI
hereafter explain Experience has shown 10 all these
States that negro minority or negro majority losing
power BY tho indinerence or the treschery OF 1t.
intimld daton Of the whites never recovers power
negro party cannot preserve itself out OF power. It
and turning its opponents out minority exist as
political quantity must have courage, PATRIOTISM IN
tegenco to wait ard take advantage OF IT'S opponents
ana thus turn Itself into majority, to be again thrown
back Into minority as soon as u fails In
gacty or fidelity, Now the negro, or
publican party, OF the South to-day is and
must, from ITS very nature, DO destitute Of
these constituents 1t has numbers, honest Intentions
and patriotism in blind, blundering way, but It Ia
utterly poweress when once loses the possession
OF government It's methods OF control are solely
methods Of force in the form Of law but force, never
thelegs IL has logic, no knowledge, experience,
tact, and it's only method lost to IL II Is poweress
You will lind this absolutely true in every State and
come may be rallied for second charge but t will
be weaker than the first, and every succeeding
effort IS weaker and weaker until the most OF them
settle down and let the whtos manage things their
way, aud BY degrees they will learn to vote with
the whites, because they have growing feeling Of
security under their wing So In Virginia one coiored
stronghold after another has fallen, and In Richmond
where the excited hayoraty contest OF 1870 required
soldiers keep the peace between the races, negro
party could now be brought TO the polls | must not
be understood as saying that negroes have become
democrats on the contrary you Can rely on 999 out
nf ln m Fanu -
ticket But mean to say that the percentage Of
negroes In those communities governed by the whites
who Indifferent and do not choose 10 dispieasc
their employers, is daily becoming larger.
WHERE THE COLOR QUESTION SETTLED.
In Virginia, Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi the
question has been definitely and finally decided that
white men to govern those States In Virginia aud
Georgia, whcrc the matter was determined In 1869 and
1870, the whites became more hrm!y seated every
year. They educating the blacks, they supply them
with public schools, they protect them in their prop
erty aud In their families, 10 those two States the
statistics OF the State governments show that tho
blacks are accommodating larger amounts oil money and
properly and becoming more generally educated than
IN any others Virginia alone has expended
$1l,00U,0o0 per annum for tho last five years
for public schools open to all In Alabama
way, and at the ensuing Presidential election II
Will be Impossible 10 prevent their carrying these
ism produced by arrests OF prominent cizcns in the
few days before the election by United States deputy
marshais assisted BY United States commssloners
VIRGINIA
In Virginia nothing prevent the vote OF the State
going Overwhelmingly for Tlden aud IL highly prob
able that the last remaining republican district
-Stato WITH send democrat TO Congress, making tho
Virginia delegation the next Congress unanimously
democratic. In my opinion contingency will chsngo
this result ana Virginia eau saciy be put down for
Tiden by from 30 900 majority upward.
WEST VIRGINIA
This offspring Of the mother OF statcs will follow her
example. There wall DO sharp contest, aggravated
by the soft money or antirosumpton issue, but that
vote 10 equally certain Tor 1idcn by say 1000 ma
joriy.
Tho Empire State OF the South, like Virginia, 10
without opposition party There Is hardly a re-
publican organ zstion worthy OF the Ia the
Sato and the majority for Iden can DO placed any
where Al from ~, 900 upward.
In tho recent State election Alabama redeemed her.
self from republican domination SO thoroughly that
that party will never again make y square nghI la
the northern part OF the state there small whte
population led by ante tettum residents who were la
the main men OF Northern or Eastern State BIRTH who
became republicans But many Of these have now