The New York herald., 1876-11-09

In this estimate the Tilden vote is cor
rectly stated on the basis of authentic re-
turns. 1t proves that he is short by barely
one electoral vote, but if he fails to get that
additional vote he can no more be Presi-
dent than if he had run as far behind as Sey-
mour did in 1868 or Greeley in 1872. Of the
States put down as doubtful in the fore
going list several have been taken out of
that category and are now counted with ap-
parent reason for Hayes. According to the
latest and most trustworthy returns Nevada,
California, Oregon and Wisconsin have
given their electoral votes for the republi-
can candidate, and Mr.. Tilden's only
chance of IN election depends on the
possibility Of his having carried either
Louisiana or South Carolina. The ante
cedent probability was that South Carolina
would 60 republican, and there Is as yet
nothing in the authentic news to contradict
that supposition. If South Carolina does
not support Hayes its vote will be
doubtful, and the republican Canvass
ing officers will easily find reasons or
pretexts for counting Tilden out. His
chances, as things now look, are narrowed
down to his getting the electoral votes
of Louisiana Both parties claim the State,
and when the Presidential election is found
to depend on the electoral votes of one State
q temptation is presented which the ordi-
nary frail virtue of political parties cannot
be expected to resist. The Canvassing
Board which will count the votes and de-
clare the result in Louisiana is the same
Canvassing Board which counted out the
democrats in 1872 and 1874, and whose
frauds were admitted by two republican
committees of Congress sent to Louisiana to
investigate the regularity Of those elections.
The returns received up to the hour when
this is written indicate the election of Hayes
by slender majority of one in the Electoral
Colleges. There is a strong probability. ac-
cortling to our estimate of the situation,
that South Carolina and Louisiana, as we'll
rs Oregon, California, Nevada, Wisconsin
and Florida will be declared by the official
authorities Of those States to have elected
tho Hayes electoral ticket, and, should this
prove to be the case, Governor Hayes has
won the election and must be regarded as
the probable successor Of President Grant.
Whether Mr.. Hayes is fairly entitled to this
position is a question (if the question should
be raised) which must be decided at a later
stage Of the proceedings. If the regular
authorities Of the States just mentioned
shall declare that Governor Hayes
has carried their Presidential electors
he has a primo tocie case which
can be shaken only by positive
evidence of fraud. Prima (dcie. the declara-
tions of the State Canvassers must bo re-
spected. Tho presumption is always in
favor Of the official action of the constituted
authorities Of State. Their determination
is conclusive and binding until impugned
on conclusive evidence. Professionally. we
must regard Mr.. Hayes as fairly and legally
elected if the Electoral Colleges shall
give him q majority. II the cor
rectness Of the decision in any State
is called in question it must not be on mere
suspicion and vague charges of fraud, but
on specific statements Of fact, supported by
sworn proofs. There is presumption in
all such cases that tho vote of State has
been correctly counted and declared by it's
officers charged with that duty. 1t requires
strong evidence to overcome and invalidate
that presumption. The electoral votes
of most Of the States will be received without
question on the mere certificates. of the
propsrS State officers. Neither ths President sf