, 1876-09-26

NEW YORK.
In all tue party calculations Of Democratic
politicians they put down the State Of New
York ~ certain for TtIpEs and HEsDn1cKs,
and tho Republican politicians rarely venture
to place 1t higher OH their side thnn "doubt-
full" This confidence on tho ono side md
concession on tic other are caused by tho
great majority by which TupEs was elected
Governor in 1874, which ia popularly sup-
posed to bo upwards Of $4,000; and tho
question naturally arises, How is SO large mn
advorso vote to DO ogercomo2 But the caso
Is not rs bad rs this showing soe,ns to mike
1t. In tho first place, T11pEN was not
elected by 10000 majority In 1874, nor by
10000. IIare Ia the votos
IiideG pen' @ ~: '4lo' Jul
Temperance candidate. ...... II, ,7US-377, 8i2
mocratlcmsjorl.y.... ............... 9s, $40
As there is no temperance question at Is
sue batwccn TnnEs Or HArEs, the lattor Is
pretty sure Of getting this third-party voto
nearly solid. But 1874 was tho "tidal
wave" year when everything WAS agninst
tic Republicans. Last year that "wavo "
had nearly subsidized in New York, and by
this timo It is honving up on the Republican
side. Hero is the vote last fall with T1LDEN
Governor, md tho enormous patronage OF
tic State ut his t1isrosnl,
Secretary Of fssate-Demoe'at.''..:..;;o;'.3oo,2ll I'll
Repnb!lcan .'''..*'"'''''4''''to13'3 W. W. ,oo .o,
Temperance ..s..s...ss.s.ssss.. II, 1o3-38U, QUE
Democratic majority. 3, 7o7
This ia very beggarly majority in poll
of nearly 800, 600 votes. Leaving ont the
Temperance vote, the Democratic minority
WAS only 1880 ovor tho Republicans, which
shows loss Of nearly $4,000 on that secured
the year before, and tho Democrats worked
just as hard Us they could to roll up tho
former majority. T1LDEN received at lcaHt
$1,000 "Liberal Republican" votes In 1874;
last fnll his party probably retained half Of
them; this fall they will not hold & per cent
Of tho Liborals. In 1874 there wero not less
than loco Republicans who abaontcd thcm-
solves from tho polls, whereas tho Democrats
brought out nearly their full strength md
received tho large Liberal reinforcement be-
sides, which they havo since lost. Tho fol-
lowing figures nre instructive:
Dlx, for Governor, in 1877 s72....."........4a5,3 3o1
Talling.ot1 In Republican vote. 10, 727
Here was falling-oG In tie Republican
vote OF nearly $4,000.
Tako tho other side:
Herman, for Eosernor. IN 1872 ........... 500, $50
Tildcu, for GoyeruoE, In ao1
Incrcuae ofDcmocrasle vote. Fl, oil
This increase represents just about tho
number Of Liberal votes for T11pEN that year,
MI of which arc now going for HArrs. Tho
highest Presidential vote ever Gust by the
Democrats III Nuw York was for SEYMOUR, in
1868, which was 423, ,8S3, and that WINS when
tho enormous frauds wero perpetratcd in tho
Cities Of New York an1 Brooklyn, whereby
SEyMouR's vote WINS swollen more than
$4,000 by bogus ballots and forged nat
uralization papers. This full tho Re-
publican voters of New York are
united, harmonious, and MI pulling to-
getlier. Necko,ting the natural increase OF
Republican voters in the last four years at
0,u00, Which il tho aaino rs between 1868
aud 1879, Gov. HAYES will receive 470,0oU
votos. To beat ts..is, T11DEH will have to in
crease Lis vote this fall over that which he
received ten yenr ago--5i GOO; anl that,
too, after losing the 26,000 Liberals who
voted for lin in 1874, and who are now sup
porting HAYES. We do not 6elievo ho cnu
begin to poll that vote. 1Ie is not going
to get $4,000 majority in New York mud
Brooklyn this fall Us 10 did in 1871; he will
do well if he receives half that minority in
those cities. Tho October elections in Ohio
and Indiana will OF course exercise consider
able influence on tho result in New York bu.
il the Republicans carry ono Of them, T11pEN
will be whipped In New York in November.