Carson daily appeal. [volume] (Carson City, Nev.) 1873-1877, 1876-10-26
THE VOTE OF NEW YORK.


ting this. We believe that Hayes can
lose tina! State and still be elected. In
deed the figures are at hand to show
this. Now the Herald makes prOfes
sion Of neutrality: but its advice and its
leanines are ali for and in favor OF
victory for Tilden. While counseling
the Democracy OF the metropolis to bar
moDy OF action in order that the mnjor'
ity there may be SO large as to overcome
the certain Republican majority OF the
State at large. it frankly states the fol-
lowing facts, figures ana deductions:
We proceed to state some of the
grounds On which We think the result IN
New York uncertain. In the first place.
there in no State in the Union IN which
the experience Of the last ten years
shows that the. strength Of parties IL
subject to such violent and extreme Hue
tuations. In 1866 there was Republl-
can majority in this State Of Is, 1919. and
in the very ne ut year. without any dehn-
able cause for SO great change. Dem
cratic majority of 81, ?30-a difference
of CT, S09 IN single year. In 1870 the
Democrats carried the State by "A major
ity of 20. 100, and the next year i. was
carried by the Republicans by majority
of Il ,OS7-a change Of 46,Sl7 in one
wear. The most surprising somersault
Of all is that which took place between
the suL rnatorial elections of 1872 and
1874. Governor Dix was elected by the
Republicans in 1872 by the heavy ma
iority OF IS, 45l, and Governor Tilden III
1874 by the almost equally heavy Demo
cratic majority of 0,3l7. making the
enormous difference of los, 1GS in two
successive Subernatorial elections. In
State which ''hops" (rardon vulgar
but expressive word) in this sudden way
from one side to the other 1t is never
safe to found any expectations on the
election returns Of the preceding year.
The Democrats indeed carried the State
last year: but i, was by small plurality
Of only Ii, $40. with prohibition vote
of IL, lO3, consisting almost entirely o.!
Republicans. SO that the Democratic
majority last year was really only 3,1o7.
Moreover, the total vote of the State
last year was only 77G,1i5 whereas III
1872 it was $40, Isl, the stay-at-home
voters last year consisting mainly of
Republicans. When these facts are
duly weighed it is difficult to find any
sold ground for the sanguine expecta-
tons expressed by some Of Mr.. Tilden s
friends respecting his prospects in this
State. 1t is only by strained Inference
that New York can be said to have in
dorsed him last fall. He went upon the
stump himself and begged for Leeis-
lature which would support his policy,
but the Legislature elected was strongly
Republican in both branches, although
in the preceding year Democratic As
seubly was elected with Mr.. Tilden, the
Republican Senate holding over. Ii
was merely nominal victory which the
Democratic party won IL this State last
year, furnishing more reasons for appre-
hension than for confidence.
1t would be over sanguine and absurd
for Democrats to reason from 1874 to
1876. Since 1874 they have met with
almost uniform losses in the Northern
States, losses so great and general hs to
make the year Of the ".;dal wave an
inadmissible standard of comparison. IN
the Southern States the Democrats have
kept all they gained in 1874, and made
new additions to their strength; at in
the North there has been a general de-
cline, the Democratic majorit!es of the
tidal year having been in some cases re-
yersed and in most other cases dimin-
ished. We will begin with the Northern
States which have just held elections.
In Ohio the Democrats had a majority
Of II 2O2 in 1874, and this year the Re-
ruo!icans have majority about two
thirds as large. In Indiana the Demo
cratic majority in 1874 was 17.252; this
year it is reduced to about $500. Penn.
sylvania had Democratic majority OF
4,G97 in 1874, bIt in 1875 it was reversed
and the Republicans had majority Of
II, 900. In Illinois the combined oppo-
si,ion to the Republican party carried
the State Ia 1874 by majority of 3d.
SOC, but it would be ridiculous to sup
pose that the electoral votes Of Illinois
will not be given for Hayes. Even
Massachusetts gave Democratic ma
ioriiy of 1882 in 1874, but it was re-
versed last year and no State is more Sc
cure for Hayes in the coming election.
L. Wisconsin the OF osition ticket won
in 1874 by $3.50 majority, but Mr..
HAYES friends have satisfactory reasons
for expecting to carry the State. In
Michigan the Republican "ajority sunk
in 1874 to 2,O3I, bu: it rose in 1870 to
26,O75. The combined effect of all
these figures is to show that the Dem
ocratic party is not nearly as strong in
the Northern States as it was in the year
Of the great tidal wave. That New
York is no exception to the rule is
sbundsntly proved by the smal!ness of
the Democratic majority on State Of
iicers last year and the success OF the
Republicans in electing both branches
of the Legislature. According to all
reasonable probabilities New York will
be this year a very close State. 1t may
make strange "aop." as it has so often
done in recent years; but this kind OF
caprice is beyond the limits of calcula-
.icn, and. like chances in lottery, is
about as likely to ne in favor of one side
as the other.
We feel better assured, daily, of our
success in the Empire State. Everybody
knows that the Democracy always vote
a. -. fill siraprth No ,oatin- what the