New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1876-08-01
THE SILVER INQUIRY.
CAUSES OF THE CHANGE IN PRICE.
THE DECREASE OF EXPECTATION OF THE METAL TO

CAUSES OF THE CHANGE IN PRICE
THE DECREASE OF EXPLOITATION OF THE METAL TO
INDIA-INCREAsE OF PRoDUCuoN-THE ATTEMPT
OF GERMANY To SELL A LARGE QUANTITY.
To the Editor Of The Tribune.
SIR: Your correspondent H. l.. W. replies to my
criticisms not only with admirable fairness, but with
strong array Of facts. In justice may say that
as he had not seen the report of Mr. Goschens COM
mttee, had not tho earlier report OF the SWISS
Commissioners which lie quotes. That document, IL
appears states that the average annual expectation
of silver from all Europe to India for the period from
1867 to 1873 was 101, 100000 francs This would
make 40f 600 900 francs or $50, 5000 during the
four wears SGS-7 inclusve but during those years.
according to the report of Mr.. GoschenS committee
tbe actual expectation of silver from Great Britain
only TO India was f2S,900,00O, or about Tl49,-
500. coo. Two things seem to be clear, that the
Swiss report upon which u. L. W. relied placed the
export of silver to India in recent years far too low
and that the expectation from other countries than
Great Britain to India has been comparatively III
significant, as presumed.
Next the Swiss report says that the production OF
silver has increased $50, 100000. Since what datef
Ny friend u. L. W. vii! pardon me for suggesting
that perhaps inattentiOn to dates may nave ltu MN
into an error. The question is as to Che causes ol
the decline of silver lsOcallcd which has occurred
within the past four years. Is it not somewhat
strained that connection to array all the changes
which have taken place in expectation OF silver, OF
in its production for the past twenty years Up TO
1873, those changes whatever they may nave Dceh'
were not such as to materially affect the gold price
of silver Yet within fifteen years it does not appear
that the production of silver has increased more
than 500 900 coo. and of that increase only por-
ton (S7,O0O,000 to S10,000NOO yearly has oc-
Cured within so recent period as to be fairly adj
duced in explanation of the change i'll price,
The same criticism applies to the remarks of Il. l.
w. as to the change in expectation of silycro INDIA
BY the Swiss Committee it is stated that the annual
average from 1850 to 1866 was $59,1O0,000. Last
wear, according TO that report, it was T22SoO,-
600. But according to Mr.. Goschen's report, winch
will be accepted as final respecting the shipments
from Great Britain, that country alone exported To
India 81 800 900, during the four years lSOH-
1871 inclusive, an average of f3G.l21OOo yearly
and during The years 1879 inclusive, SIS, 900.
an average of $40 100000 yearly Thus there ap-
pears TO have been a decline of about T23,271,OOo
in the yearly expectation prior to 1871, when the
price of silver was well maintained. After that
time two events happened; further decline of
Sl6, 600 600 in yearly shipments to ladia and an
atteupt by Germany to sell vast and unknown
0uantitv yariously estimated from S7O0O0,oOO 10
SljOOOOO 900. To which of these causes - ,he
change of price the more fairly attributable Since
1871 the increase Of production has been from
81 900. 600 10 SlO,O0O,OO0 the decrease of ship
mcuts to India, $lG,6O0O00; and the quantity
offered for sale by Germany from S7OoOp,oou to
$50 OOOOO Is it not rcaS 'ua'lc to attribute the
fall in the gold price of silver mainly to the attempt
of Germany to domOnctize 1t
1t should be remembered that France alone has
purchased and accumuatg TlG1J0O,OOo ~ liver
within the past few years. instead OF exporting
largely to India. as u. l.. W. suggests. ThiS accu-
mutation by France exceeds the entire increase OF
production lat SlOD0O,O00 yearly and the entire
decrease of expectation 10 India since 1871 accord
ing 10 Mr. Goschcn, S6G,5OO,OOOl by TGl,OOo,OOO.
Thus France has drawn that amount from whatever
surplus had previously accumulated, besides absorb
ing all silver thrown on thc market by the TWO
causes named. My conclusion Is that the decline
since 81 has been due not to the actual sales by
Germany, supposed TO have been about 3O,cooOoO'
but 20 the continued attempt To sell larger amount
and to the apprehension that other nations might
follow that example. And, ne LondoH Economist
observes this cause the more potent because the
amount thus liable to be thrown on the market was
unknown and led to tie widest conjccturcs. @.
Nrir- York. ,Juy 81, 1876.