Evening star. [volume] (Washington, D.C.) 1854-1972, 1876-09-28
New York, Next.

troQQ6nfIy
occur from that cause.
New York, Next.
In the possibility that the elections In In.
diana and Ohio may result indecisiyely as
10 showing with any certainty how the ma
tional contest will end IN Noyemb Der, the
politicians are beginning 10 estimate the
possibilities and probabilities In New York,
which state Will have a weighty voice In
determining who is 10 be our next President.
The democrats have put that state down as
certain for Tilden, and the republicans have
usually claimed Ii for Hayes, though some
OF the calculators OF this party have not IN
dertaken 10 raise IL beyond the list OF
"doubtful." The confidence OF the demo-
cratic claim Is based upon the great major
tty by which Tilden was elected Governor
In 1874, which has been set down in round
numbers, as In the vicinity OF $4,000. To the
cursory look this is an adverse majority al
most impossible TO overcome, but the re-
publicans meet the objection by the follow
ing figuring:
In the first place, Tilden was not elected
by $4,000 majority In 1874, nor by AZ, 900. Here
IL the vote:
IIoen, dem. ..-.......'......... .fl6,59l
Temperance candidate. ........ II,I6S-377, si2
As there is no temperance question at
issue between Tilden and Hayes. the latter
10 pretty sure, the republicans say, Of
getting this third party vote nearly
solid. But 1874 was the " tidal-wave"
year, when everything was against the
republicans Last year that wave"
had nearly subsidized In New York, and by
this time 1t Is heaving up on the republican
side Here is the vote last fail with Tilden
governor, and the enormous patronage Of
the state at his disposal:
Secretary of State-Democrat 800 Oh
TMsPuoesp :...'.''....,.''.....
AeWPeiance ...'.....''. ....... II, los $50 ,5O4
Democratic majority. 3,TO7
Ills is a very trifilne maJorit y In a poll of
nearly 500. 600 votes. Leaving out the tenn
perance vote the democratic majority was
only H,sl0 over the republicans, which shows
loss OF nearly sc 600 on that secured tie
year before, though 1t Is asserted the demo
Gratis made great efforts to maintain their
former majority. Tilden received at least
5000 liberal republican" votes In 1874; last
fall bis party probably retained half OF them;
this fall, according 10 republican estimates,
they will not hold d We per cent. of the iibsr-
ais. In 1874 there were not less than 60 900
republicans who absented themselves from
the polls, whereas the democrats brought out
nearly their full strength and received the
large liberal reinforcement besides, which
they have since lost The following figures
are given as showing the falling OH In the
republican vote;
Dix, for Governor, In 1872 AS 3Ol
DIX, for Governor, In 1SIi.......... go. 1856 O74
Failing Of in republican vote. 1917
Here was falling Off in The republican
vote OF nearly 50 600.
Take the other side:
Kernan, for Governor, In 1872 1872 $50
Iilden, for Governor, IN 1874 ...... lilo .S9i
Increase of democratic vote. ... "a OIL
This Increase represents just about the
number OF liberal votes for Tilden that year,
most OF which are now claimed for Hayes.
The highest Presidential vote ever cast by
the democrats IL New York was for Sey-
mour, in 1868, which was 429 $50. and that
was when the enormous frauds, as charged
by the republicans, were perpetrsted in the
cities Of New York and Brooklyn, whereby
Seymour's vote WAS swollen more than
$4,000 by bogus ballots and forged natural
tzation papers. This fall the republican
voters of New York are united, and all pull
ing together. Reckoning the natural In
crease OF the republican voters In the last
four years at sc, 600, which Is the same as be.
tween 1865 and 1872, Gov. Hayes will receive
10000 votes. To beat this, Tilden will have
to increase his vote this fall over that which
be received two years ago 81 600; and that,
too, AFTER losing the % 900 liberals who voted
for him in 1874, and who are now in the % ain
supporting Hayes.
According TO the republican estimate he
Is not going to get 80 600 maj ,rity In New
York and Brooklyn this fall, as he did In
1874; and they do not allow him more tn An
bali that majority in those cities. The re-
publicans hold that If they carry either
Ohio or Indiana in October they will carry
New York state in November.