The Valley Virginian. [volume] (Staunton, Va.) 1865-1895, 1876-10-26
The New York Herald en- the Election
Prospects

AAoSfSOtss
We proceed to state some of the grounds
On which we think the result in New York
unct rtain. In the first place, there is no
State in the Union in which the experience
of the last ten years shows that the strength
Of parties is subject to such violent and ex-
IRENE fluctuations. In 1866 there was Re
publican majority in this State of 1889 and
in the very next year, without any definable
cause for so great change 4 Democratic
majority of Al ,930-a difference of 81 800 in
a single year. In 1870 the Democrats car
| ried the State by a majority of 29.730 and
the next year it was carried by the Republic
cans by a majority OF 1861 change of
4G,Sl7 in one year. The most surprising
somersault OF all is that which took place be-
tween the guberpatorial elections Of 1872 and
1874. Governor Dix was elected by the Re-
pubicans in 1872 by the heavy majority Of
50, As, and Governor Tilden in 1874 by the
almost equally heavy Democratic majority
of 50,3l7, making the enormous difference
of l05,7GS in two successive gubernatomal
elections. In State which ''flops" pardon
a vulgar but expressive world in this sudden
way from one side to the other it is never
| safe to found any expectations OH the cleo
ton returns of the preceding year.. The
| Democrats indeed carried the State last year;
but it was by 4 small plurality OF only IA,
$40, with prohibition vote Of II, JOB, con-
| slstlng almost entirely of Republicans, so
that the Democratic majority last year was
really only 1907. Moreover, the total vote
OF the State last year was only 77G,715,
whereas in 1872 it was S40,l5l, the stay-at-
| home voters last year consisting mainly OF
Republicans. When these facts are duly
weighed it is difficult to find any solid
| or0nuu FOR thn copOt1ina afofi ~.
pressed by some of Mr.. Tilden's friends re-
specting his prospects in this State. 1t is
only by Il strained inference that New York
can be said to have endorsed him last fall.
Hewent upon the stump himself and begged
4 for 4 Legislature which would support his
policy. but the Legislature elected was
strongly Republican in both branches, al
| though in the preceding year a Democratic
Assembly was elected with Mr.. ridden, the
Republican Senate holding over. 1t was Il
merely nominal victory which the Democl a.
tic party won in this State last year, furnish
ing more reasons for apprehension than fol
confidence.
1t would be over sanSune and absurd for
Democrats to reason from 1874 to 1876. Since
1874 they have met with almost uniform
losses in the Northern States, losses so grca;
and general as to make the year of the s.ti.
parison In the Southern States the Demo
cra.s have kept all they gained in 1874, ant
made new additions TO their strength bui
in the North there has been general decline
/ the Democratic majorities of the tidal veal
having been in some cases reversed and IN
most other cases diminished. We will begin
with the Northern States which have i,ls
held elections. In Ohio the Democrats ha(
a majority Of l7,202 in 1874, and this yea
the Republicans have majority about two
thirds as large. In Indiana the Democratic
majority in 1874 was 1922; this year it il
reduced to about $500. Pennsylvania had ;
Democratic majority of 1907 in 1874, but il
1879 1t was reversed and the Republicans hat
a majority of 1000. In Illinois the com
blned opposition to the Republican party
carried the State in 1874 by majority 0
30,5O6, but it would be ridiculous to suppos'
that the electoral vote of Illinois will not b
given to Hayes. Even Massachusetts gave ;
Democratic majority of 1902 in 1874, bu
1t was reversed last year, anG no State i
more secure for Hayes in the coming election
In Wisconsin the opposition ticket won il
1874, by 1910 majority, but Mr.. Hayes
friends have satisfactory reasons for expect
ing to carry the State. In Michigan the Re
publican majority sunk in 1874 to 1902, bu
it rose in 1875 to 5G,075. The combined eff
feet of all these figures is to SHOW; that thy
Democratic party is not nearly as strong il
the Northern States as it was in the year O
the great tidal wave. That New York is n,
exception to the ruiz. is abundantly provet
by the smallness of the Democratic majorit,
on State offices last year and tile success 0
the Republicans ia clecting both branches O
the Legislature. According to the reasona
Bile probabilities New, York will be this yea
a very close State 1t may make a strangt
i 'sflop'' as it has so oftcndone inrecent years
but this kind of caprice is beyond calcula
ton, and. like chances in lottery, is about
as likely to elm favor OF one side as thu
other. - ~Cr Il