The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1876-07-24

as temporary, being referred to the flnan-
oial and commercial crisis from whose
effects we are still suffering, and especially
to the almost total paralysis of railway
construction in this country. Under my
circumstances, however, IL seems improba-
bic that the ubiquitous extravaganza Of
expenditure and reckless development of
speculative enterprises which character
lied the last decade, will again be witnessed
by the men of this generation. There Is
no doubt that our relation to Great Britain
is far more independent and suspicious
than II was four years ago. Then our inn
ports, stated at s175, 100000, exceeded our
exports by moro than $4,000, 900, whereas
already in 1874 from which date our posi-
ton has rather improved than otherwise,
our exports were valued ut $3.50, 100000,
| against a consumption of slG0, 000, 900 in
British products.
However strenuously tho Manchester
men may dispute the permanence of the
recent decrease in American demand, IL Is
certain that the shortcomings Of other con-
sumers cannot be accounted for on the
same grounds. Doubtless the expenditure
OF Germany Is at present cramped by
certain amount of commercial prostration,
but this cause had scarcely begun to be
operative between 1872 aud 1874, during
which period the value of imports from
England was diminished by forty millions
of dollars. And what shall we SAY OF
Turkey. which at the same epoch was not
yet bankrupt, but whose absorption of
products from her largest creditor reveal
ed shrinkage of twenty millions in the
two years. Meanwhile the dependence Of
Russia on British manufactures was
abridged by just twenty-six millions, and
the narrowed market in Holland and
China represented loss of fourteen mil
lions in each quarter. But for the singular
expansion in the demands of India, Aus
tralia and the Cape Colony--demands oc-
oasioned by the impressive development Of
those countries in resources and popula-
ton during the last FIVE years-it is hard TO
see how the producers of Great Britain
could have escaped insolvency. Notwith-
standing large compensations from these
sources, the total diminutiou in the value of
exports from the United Kingdom be-
tween 1872 and 1874 amounted to eighty-flye
millions Of dollars.
That the expectations entertained In
England of a speedy revival in the demand
for her productions are not well founded,
is established by some statistics respecting
the movement of commerce in the month
of May, 1876, lately published by the British
Board OF Trade. 1t appears that the value
of exports for that period rs compared
with the same month of 1875, indicates a
Il - 4
and one-half per cent. The significance OF
these figures is emphasized when we re-
member that the last mentioned term had
exhibited falling off of fourteen per cent =
from the corresponding thirty days of the
previous year. In other words, the market
for British manufactures has been cur
tailed by one-fifth within two years. Sup
pose this process of abridgement to con-
tinue-and the experience of the last five
years gives reason to believe nits continu-
ance-by what means can England avert
bankruptcy
Certainly not by maintaining her impor-
tations upon their present scale, and even
augmonting them as she has done more
than once during this period OF productive
depression. III 1872 the excess Of imports
over exports was already two hundred
millions of dollars Two years afterward
the difference was doubled, and at least
one-fifth of this tremendous deficit repre-
sented positive increase of consumption.
There is obviously but one way of making
good a balance of this character, namely,
by encroachments upon capital. England's
purse is deep, and her self-complaceucy
well nigh invulnerable, but the strain to
which she is now subjected can hardly re-
suit in nythiug but disaster. Only for the
first FIVE months of the current year the
overplus Of consumption above products
exceeds sixty millions sterling, and we in
Ter that profound arrangement in the
normal course of exchange may not un-
reasonably be looked for.