The New Orleans Democrat. (New Orleans, La.) 1875-1876, 1876-04-15
THE PRESIDENCY.
THE FIRST BALLOT AT CINCINNATI
sper"intiOns About the Drift Of votes
for the different Candidates.
lCorrerpoudcpee New York Tribune.

clnnati Convention. and yet people ar
already ciphering out tho probable ro
suit OF tho first ballot. Every State i
claimed by some candidate, and not
few arc down upon the slaics Of two q
three. In the cases Of States whore NJ
conventions have been held. the atttud,
OF tho leading journals, the views o
members or Congress, ana the lottcr!
received from prominent politicians fur
| nish tho Indications Of the drift Of things
that nre relied upon in making esti
mates for want OF more aecurat,
data. In ono sense these efforts Il
forecast u result that mny depeuC
upon contingencies which cannot pos
sibly be taken into the account at this
time are idle speculations. and might
well be cast aside as rubbish, but In an
other they have some value. When
taken collectively. compared, and the
manifest errors arising from partisan
ship corrected, their remains sum oi
tho best attainnble information ns ia
the present situation. IT, may I'LL be
valuelcss n fortnight hence. and it may
accurately foreshndow the issue OF the
contest. Asking the reader to accept
the statements for only what they are
worth rs spcculntions. I will give first
the strength Of the rival candidates on
friends, and then an estimate OF what
vote the facts. so far ns known. make ii
probable that they will got.
Mr.. Balne's pnrtsans claim ns certain
the full vote Of Maine, New Hampshire,
Massachusetts. Delaware, Maryland,
Virginia, West Virginia. North Caro-
linn, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Min
nesota. Nebraska. Kansas, California,
Nevada. Oregon, and all the Territories
altogether GAG votes. They also ex-
poet To get Rhode Island. South Caro-
lima, Louisiana, Florida and Illinois,
making "a votes more. Ir they should
realize the full measure of their nntici
patlons their candidate. Mr.. Blaine,
would start off with 331 votes. and
would lack only 81 Of enough to nomi-
nate him.
Senator Morton's supporters claim
Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, and the
whole South, except Kentucky and Ma
ryland. According to this estimate Of
his strength, which Is Of course consid
erably exaggerated, he will have 2GG
votes. The Morton men do not differ
cntiate their States into certain and
doubtful, perhaps because they are all
doubtful except lndnna.
Mr. Bristow has no organization work
ing for him here. and there is isabsolutely
nobody 20 be found who assumes to con
duct the canvass In his behalf and Is
ready to furnish figures MS 10 his prob
able vote. The Bristow movement is
running itself among the people, appa-
reutly without much help from the poll
ticians. H. Is therefore impossible to
state the number of delegates clnimed
for him, because there is no one to
make claims.
Senator ConklinB appears 10 count on
the complimentary vote of tho entire
New York delegation on the first ballot
though how his friends can make 1t up
with the Curtis faction Is more than
can say. New Jersey Is also claiued
for him, and efforts arc being made to
rally q few votes in the West and South
on the strength Of his White House IN
fiucnce, but with poor prospects Of sue
cess. Gov. Hayes will Of course have
tho full vote OF Ohio, md Gov. Hart
ranft Of Pennsylvania Mr.. II. u. Wash
bnrne Ia still possible candidate, al
though the Illinois men say that in ask
ing for the nomination for Governor he
agreed 10 abandon oil aspirations for
the Presidency His friends it seems
insisted upon knowing the direction in
which he intended they should carry
him before taking him upon their
shoulders. Sitting out exaggerated and
improbable claims Of strength from the
above estimates, we may make up the
statement OF what from pres
ent Indications promises to be the result
Of the first ballot at Cincinnati
For Mr.. Blaine Maine, New Hamp-
shire, part Of Massachusetts fsay IL
votes out OF 26), Rhode Island, 10 votes
from New York, Delaware, Maryland,
Virginia, North Carolina, Louisiana,
III "A, NNt1Anvait
Nebraska, Kansas, Califor
MIA, Oregon, Nevada, and the nine
Torritories-in all 25G votes.
For Mr.. Morton Indiana, Missouri,
Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Texas,
Tennessee, West Virginia, Georgia,
Florida, and the District OF Columbia
total 1873 votes.
For Gov. Hartranft -Pennsylvania's
So votes.
For Gov. Hayes Ohio's A votes.
For Mr.. Conkling About 50 votes
from New York and possibly the l8 votes
Of New Jersey. .-... ..1
For Bristow Vermont, Connecticut,
part Of Massachusetts, "A few votes from
New York, South Carolina, IL the Cham
bcrlain party control the Convention,
and the Kentucky delegation--less than
Is votes in all This Is n very small
4.
that the above estimates in the case OF
the other candidates are based upon the
probable success OF the organized ef
forts being made in their behalf, while
Mr.. Bristow's candidacy depends en-
tirely upon the breaking down Of these
by the force OF public
opinion. He is not around trying to bag
delegates like Mr. Blaine or Mr.. Norton
and il he succeeds it will be because the
snares Of those experienced fowlers will
be swept away by the rising gale Of the
popular will. Mr.. Bristow will there
fore prove either a very weak candidate
or an irresistible one. 1t seems certain
that he has broken in upon Mr.. Blaine's
forces in New England, and II he can do
the same thing in Illinois and the
Northwest, and can get twO-thirds OF
the Ohio delegation on the second bal
lot, the tide might set in his favor too
powerfully to be turned. 1t must be
admitted, however, that the prospects,
as viewed from a Washington level,
strongly favor Mr.. Blaine.
Mr.. Morton is likely to attain his
maximum strength on the first ballot.
There is no possibility Of growth, and
his nomination is an almost impossible
contingency. Some Of the Oldest Re
publicans in Congress declare that it
would disrupt the party. A New YORK
member, very much respected for his
good Judgment, said to-day that at least
twenty OF his fellow Republicans had
told him that il Morton were nominated
they would refuse TO support him. as
for Mr.. Conkling, no one mere. unless II