The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1876-08-27

From the London Times !


The conflict Of parties In the United States has en-
tered upon a now phase. The Conventions have met,
the compromises been negotiated the "patforms"
have been peccd together and the tickets" agreed
upon The chosen candidates both sides have sg-
nined their acceptance OF the championship IN caro-
iul penncd letters, which generally regarded ~
political maniicstoes. But now pause Le
operations of the campaign. This opportunity Of
the party statistcians. Computations oil political ofces
and chances have wonderful vogue and each side
command The services OF cacuators who prove TO de-
monstraton that the defeat of their antagonists
matter absolute certainty. For while American pol-
tics become vast game OF brag and the waycring
or unattached electors Tor whose beaeal these cab
crate calculations conducted, are reduced to
state Of bewdercd sccptcism. Yet 1t is quite inn
possible among all these conflicting estimates 10 arrive
general probabilities ON which a cautious fore
cast OF tho impending strife may be founded Our
correspondent Philadelphia sends US careful and
thorough analysis OF the most trustworthy estimates
OF the voting strength of which each party will dispose
In the critical struggle OF the 7,h November next
IL differs widely. need scarcely say, IRON the
ndent rcckonlnss Of the extreme partsans on
either side, VINO allow no shadow of chance
TO their opponents. Ii will DO sceu that our corre
spondents survey leaves the issuo very doubtful
IL would be even now TO mistake the balance Of
opinion IN many parts OF tho United States. aud before
tho decisive moment arrives that balance may be
s..ayeu Que direction or another by unexpected
The elections when Viii be dccidei all tnc Siaics
the 7th OF November popularity spoken OF In tho
aggregate The Presidential election. Strictly speak
ing, choice w then be made OF the presidential
electors, " who, according 10 The twelfth ancndment
OF the constitution adopted IN iso are to elect me
President and Wee President IN tho following spring.
these electors should exercise a real choice.
but long they have become the
Instruments al the organized political parties.
from whom they accept u Dsaniat iTperdtG ana whose
tickets thcy bound support la all The States
chosen wi ~ matter of course, vote tor Hayes and
Wheeler =; all by the democrats
the ballots VIII be equally unanimous for "raen ana
Hendricks" II Is next - Impossible that any OF tho
smaller parties VINO organize platforms auc
nominate tcsets should, IN iact, have voice at all
the election OF the President The greennack poll
tcians have such ticket inns year. and tins temper
have another; but though there hun
drcds OF thousands OF electors enthusiastic tor un
limited sreenbacks and for stringent liquor laws,
they are nowhere strong enough to carry State,
and therefore. they arc politically powcrlesA They
hay have slight negative influences on the conu.cl;
the temperance men may draw oil some votes from
tho rcpuslcan strength IN New Enslard the grcen-
back may weaken the democrats III the West; Uut
they annullcd because they are everywhere in u
minority Nor Is tins by any means the worst hard
ship oil mnorities In this most important trial VI
party strength The electoral votes allotted 10 each
equal to tho aggregate OF its Congressional
counting Senators and menOers OF Tho
lower house together, but they all become properly
OF tue party that has tho muJority--it may be .ny
bare majorily-in the State Thus IN New York,
which II seems probable the democrats VIII Win. tho
republicans powerful minority that they nave
sim good hopes OF success but II they ia the whole
thIiy-nve votes OF the State will DO secured for tho
democratic sticket" and tho almost equal number II
republicans Will be, politically, oOliteracd In Penn
syvania on The other hand the republicans are Likely
TO bo aud the large democratic minority WI
10 AN nu. led. Under tins system 1t may well happen
that party may secure majority of .he electoral
votes while supported only by an agcrcsae minority OF
the people. Thus New York state, with thirty live
votes outwcighcd, politically, by WISCONSIN, Iowa.
Michigan and Mnne.osa. which have taken to.
State had at the last census population
Of 4,sSsooo. while the aggregate popa.
lution ot tho four Western States named was only
$780, Oc0 These aud other objections 10 the existing
method Of Presidential election have been often pointed
out but the System Is too convenient Tor tho party
managers to be lightly abandoned
Under the system We havo described, the general
popularity OF candidate or Of policy Is modied oy
local conditions aud these have Ia taken into account
In estimating the probabilities OF the coming conflict
As pointed out some time ago, many OF the most
important sections OF the Union balance ono another
| The democrats reckon upon the vote OF the whole
| OF the Southern states, except South Caro-
! day seemed like a violent attemp. Of the whites
10 bring that State also into limo. Tho ro-
pubicans count with equal confidence New England
and on the Northwest The democrats, beaten GU The
| currency question IN tho great communities OF OHIO
ZIONIST States by the adoption Of Tree trade
platform at ST. Louis But they trust that what Will
destroy their slender hopes In OHIO and Pennsylvana
! will thom materially IN tho leading froo trade
staes-not only Now York, whore Governor rilden's
nomination has gwen them the foremost place in the
running, but In Indiana and Illinois. These are the
| most important Of the States whose votes still
| really doubtful The small Southern States VI
|
far West Nevada and Colorado, cixssed
decided but Will probably equally shared between
the parties For tho States Of tho Pacific slope,
Oregon and California, tho democrats, who have no
chance Of gaming my ground ia New England, tho
stronghold Of Humanitarian CONVICTIONS, have mado
darug bid by promising anti Chinese legislation, and
In this they will probably succeed. Tho result
that the republicans toeraby certain OF l37 cleo.
toral and tho democrats OF 1885, we leave OUT
New York, which Is safer 10 place among tho doubt.
ful states or these there are cght-Ncw York. with
thirty five votes, which win probably carry with New
Jersey. counting nne votes; Indiana with fifteen aud
Illinois with twenty ono votes, Delaware and Florida,
| Colorado and Nevada. II the democrats carry New
York and New Jersey. and equally divide tho smaller
States they afford u loso Indiana ind liinos
tho elements OF these close calculations that tho
trail point Of the whole struggle the State election IN
the decisive contest OF November Tie battle
this State very nercc II Is to secure victory mere
that the democrats havo encountered their "ticke''
with Mr. Hendricks whose obstInacy In dcnouncng
specie resumption II doing tho most serious
damage to his party In the East Whether
| Mr. Hendricks IS likely TO carry Indiana or
| not 1t is certain that his republican opponents
have with a cheek. They brought over Gr.
Ortiz tho United States Minister at Vienna 10 fight Tor
the Governorshp, his local influence and especially
his popularity with the Germans beng greatly rcliec
upon. But an nvestiga committee OF the demo-
cratic House Of Representatives has brought to light
with opportunc vruence an ugly scandal, connecting
Mr. Orth with a dscreditabIe settlement vi
Venezuelan claims publicly condemned by vote
OF the House ind wero informed by Telegraph Tho
other day. The republicans have withdrawn Mr. Ortns
nomination, ami Will be compelled 10 fight The
battle with another champion This rs avery heavy
blow for IL may the foregoing calculations ~
ALL the loss Of Indiana would DO almost certainly iatai
to the fortunes OF Mr. Hayes. The best hopcs OF the
their rivals II Mr.. Hendricks continues 10 publish his
'sot money" absurditcs in dc1incc OF Mr. Tdcp and
to carry his party. lac has carried the majority of
House Of Representatives with HIM in his attacks
the Resumption act, either there will DO open
breach the two sections the democrats 0e
the Eastern States Will be completely aIicnated