The Somerset press. [volume] (Somerset, Ohio) 1873-1977, 1876-03-03
When Will Trade Revive?

When Will Trade Revive?
Under this heading, the United States
Economist presents partial review of
the causes which have led TO the gener-
al depression of all business interests,
and answers the query by setting forth
in few words, what must be done and
endured before we can reasonably hope
for the much desired revival. The writ
er says:
"This very pertinent, if not important,
qnery is uppermost every spring and fall
since the panic in the thoughts of the
public, who have been anticipating a re
vival of business. But, unfortunately,
each season has passed without the full.
fillment of their long wished for hopes,
The question, therefore, is serious one.
when that revival may fairly be expect
ed. But this can not be very easily an
swered, nor can any date be fixed.
"To determine the time when trade
will probably revive, we must review
the causes of its partial suspension
Most obvious among these was over
trading. The war and resulting imitation
of currency and prices begot an extra
vagance of living and doing business
that, long kept up, could not but lead to
disaster. Vast stocks of goods of many
kinds were made, and but half consumed
BY the buyers. Enough was spent by
many persons in a week to provide them
reasonably for a month. The result was
that production, in many branches real
ly outran consumption, and when the
sure reaction came it found years sup
ply on hand Of many commodities. Now
production can not be expected to be-
come active until stocks on hand are ex-
hausted. This exhaustion, especially of
dry goods stocks, will not take place till
all the old clothes that can be made to
look in any way respectable have been
worn out. The same rule applies in
other directions, and until existing re-
serves of grain, iron, leather, &C., are
slowly and cautiously consumed, an act.
i've business in most articles Of COM
merce is not likely to take place.
"Even when this consumption has ta-
ken place, is it likely to be followed by
anything but a timorous, hand -to-mouth
mode Of production and sale? The real
cause of the paralysis of trade is not
scarcity of currency, nor is it contrac-
tion thereof. 1t is contraction of some
thing far greater tLan currency, a con-
traction of credit. Money is not scarce,
for it is heaped up in places of deposit,
waiting acceptable employment. What
has been for years contracting, what
sank to almost nothing in 1873, and thus
caused the long growing panic to burst
forth IN tremendous force, is lack of con-
fdence. Men have grown to trust each
other less and less, under the demoraliz-
ing influence of over-government, over
taxation, and legal-tender paper. Own
ers fear to trust property out Of their
own hands; banks and lenders distrust
borrowers ability and even their dispos-
ition to pay, and hence dread to aid en-
terprise, energy and skill as the latter
deserve. Mills and mines can not obtain
funds to keep them going. because own
ers of available funds see no certainty
Of getting their money back. While
this widespread distrust lasts it Is i'm
possible for trade to revive, especially
when the heaviness of taxation, and the
fluctuations in purchasing power Of the
currency, make it possible and even pro-
bable that they will be stripped of their
honest gains. Trade will fully revive
. when men have regained confidence in
each other, and when taxation and cur
rency are on a sound and stable basis.
ITO bring about this combination may
be long and painful process, but it is
the sole road out Of present troubles
The sharpers and swindlers, of whatever
kind and degree, must be ostracised.-
Honest men must come to the front and
take the lead. Accommodation must he
extended to trusty borrowers, and to
. them alone. Law must thoroughly pro-
tect every citizen in the full and undis-
turbed possession of his own. All swind-
ling, under whatever Pretext or disguise
must be certainly punished, if not by
courts, at all events by public opinion
Dishonest men must be made to feel that,
whatever their wealth or position, their
dishonesty forfeits and destroys their So
cial standing. When honesty is CONNER
cially and socially at premium. and
roguery commercially and socially far
below par, trade will revive and -four
ish."