The Canton mail. [volume] (Canton, Miss.) 18??-1882, 1876-04-08
THE COTTON sITUAT1ON.

| koHiiIu, EruWhIue q 70. (LlNcTpOOt
circular of February 29th says: Nowilct
us look at this years supply. Take the
American crop at 1900, 900 bales, what
will be the supply from other quarters
We allow an increase of 100000 large
bales from Egypt on the average Of the
last three years, possibly 10000 bales,
but we look for a very heavy decrease
from India. This will arise, not so much
from the shortness of tie crop as from
the extremely lew price and the paraly-
sis of the machinery for moving the
crops of that country. At this period
of the year the greater proportion of the
Bombay crop is usually contracted for
up-country, and every effort is being
made to hurry it down as fast as possible
to Bombay, and ship it off against arri-
val sales made on this side. This year
the machinery of the trade is almost at a
standstill. Hardly any cotton is being
placed on this side few contracts are be-
ing made at Bombay the arrivals thus
far are scarcely one-half what they were
last year, and it is our impression that,
If no recovery takes place before the
month OF May, dne-fotirth OF the crop
viii not be shipped to Europe this year.
: We therefore incline to think that
900, 900 to 400, 900 bales less cotton will
arrive from India this year, and no
doubt some deficiency from other sources
as well. Therefore we should say that
2, 400, 900 is full allowance for the sup
ply from other quarters than, America,
against 100000 the last three years,
but owing to the preponderance of Egyp
tian cotton, in place of counting this as
equal to ], 800, 900 American, we shall
reckon it 900, 900 bales of American size,
and the total supply for this season will
be- 49, ss LIS. ~ YEsi 81, ....i ~ p
Bales
American crop ,6OO,O0O
Other kinds equal to American. ......1 ,90o, 900
if -. - a17se 6,5oo,OOO
Consumpt'n of Europe and America 6, 100000
Surplus of supply over consumption 100000
and this, we think, will go to increase
the invisible stocks of spinncrs, which
were very low last autumn, and are
likely to be pretty large the coming. one,
especially on the continent.
We therefore venture the opinion that
the visible supply of cotton on the list of
October next will be no greater than last
year, and people will then be arguing
that if crop of 4, SOC, 900 has all disap-
peared, what supply shall we need for
the following season?
Our impression is that a great rise of
prices will take place if the opinion pre-
walls that next crop is not likely to be
more than four millions. If next season
is an average one, we do not think more,
than this can be calculated on, especially
as these low prices are likely to give a
certain check to cotton cultivation in
America. At present the prevailing
opinion in that country seems to be that
no check will be given; there is of course
no certainty on this point, but we incline
to think that cotton cultivation in the
northern belt, where it is largely kept up
by using fertilizers, will diminish ! pos
possibly this may be made up in the
but We doubt it. i9
We feel sure that in most other coun-
tries cotton cultivation will decline at
present prices. India only yielded hall
a million bales annually for some years
before1 the American war, with fair
Dhollerah at sd per pound. OF late
years it has furnished one and half mil
lion bales to Europe. We should think |
that at 4d for fair Dhollerah this may
to one million bales, or SO, if
these low prices continue long enough,
as to fairly check cultivation. We think |
even Egypt, which is eminently adapted
to cotton growing, will not keep up at
the extraordinary low prices now ruling !
for Egyptian cotton, and there can be no
doubt that Brazil, Turkey and the West |
Indies will fall back to most insignifi-
cant position if present prices are to |
continue. /