New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1876-01-15

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follows (the reports for 1862, 1868, 1864,
and 1865 being for the Northern States only):
Ts55 NuRasr ss EsT N@Pss
1885 1913 SI,555Gooo 1863 .2,2So 75o540oo
1860. 1876 79,SO7,OOO 1870. 1886 ss,2l2000
1862 1852 23,Oi9,O0o 1872. .4,O69 12l,o56000
1858. 495 7,s99,CO0 1873. .5,1S3 22s,4g9WoO
1861 $40 $4,000 1874. .5,s30 13o,239OoO
1850. $50 l5'G 65o lS75.7,74o 2Ol'oooooo
1t is fact well established, and perfectly
familiar to every commercial observer, that
the fury of panic is directed first at the large
banks, business houses, and manufacturers.
The year after its occurrence and the year
following that, the smaller houses feel the
pressure of the times, and such as are too
deeply in debt begin to go down. The annual
number of failures continues very large, but
the average liabilities are very much smaller.
The reaction reaches the labOring classes last
of all. Looking mt the record above, the truth
is seen to be illustrated. The failures III 1897
were 1882; in the next year, Apo; the year
after the still large number of 1913. But the
average liabilities, which in 1857 were $4,000,
were in 1853 only go, 000 and in 1859 only
$4,000. The same principle is visible in the
averages for 1851 and the two following years,
which were in 1861, $4,000; in 1862 and
1868, $4,000. The reaction of 1861 did not
produce It's natural fruit in a sustained number
of failures for year or two following, for the
reason that an extraordinary cause interpOsed,
the war, with its vast increase of the currency
and enormous expenditures of money by the
nation, and every State, county, city, aud
town. But eliminating the effect produced by
imitation and an abundance of active capital,
the natural tendency of business reaction Is
seen in the figures given for the three years
last cited Now take the last three years. In
1873, the number of failures was 5,lS3; i'll
1874, it was more, namely, $3.50; in 1879,
more still, 7,740. But now see the averages.
In 1873, the average Liabilities were $4,000;
in 1874, $4,000; in 1873, $4,000 In
other words, the wave of business depression
has passed beyond the great houses, and is now
exhausting its force on those of more limited
capital, symptom unyayng and infallible
of the beginning of better days.
From these statistics alone it is evident that
an immediate Improvement, however subdued,
can reasonably be expected in the tendency of
affairs in the commercial world. 1t could have
been wished that Mr.. Wyman, the statistician
of Dun, Barlow g. Co.'s Agency, had devoted
lar to this feature of the business situation.
The circular, however, dealing simply with
the immediate past, confines itself more ex-
clusively to that and its lessons, leaving the
causes for hope IN the future to others. These
may be briefly alluded to. One reason OF the
great number of failures in 1874 and 1879 Is
undoubtedly the systematic retrenchment that
has taken place in public and private expendi-
tures. This retrenchment in most lines of
business and in private life since 1873 has
now been carried about as far as 1t is likely to
go, and the volume of trade of the country
ought now steadily to increase. The sales OF
the present Winter in this city indicate that
the lowest limit of contraction of business has
substantially been reached.
Then the crops of the year were extremely
good. and the demand for them abroad excel
lent. Everybody knows the stimulus to Dusl-
ness all over the country that this invariably
brings. The large expectation OF products OF
the soil since the war has been one means of
enabling business to settle back to peace
basis far more gradually and safely than 1t
otherwise would have done. The market there
has been for the great staple crops of the
South. for example, has enabled that section
of the country to begin buying extensively
again. Then there is whisper of hope to
the cotton goods trade in the increasing for
eign demand. Within six months n sale of
American cotton goods has begun III England
and Continental Europe, market never be-
fore open to them. Enthusiastic merchants in
this city declare that " the problem of an over
stocked market is solved" The kilograms
of Mr.. Hathaway, Treasurer of the Border
CITY Mills in Fall River, from England, where
he was sent by the Fall River manufacturers
To study the question of sending goods TO En-
gland, are very satisfactory and the reports
and orders from Germany still more So
The general reduction OF public expendi-
lures, the approach of the Centennial EXPOSE
ton, with its silver promises of activity, the
increasing trade with Canada, and the posi-
bility of some renewed railroad construction
this Summer, are all encouraging. Against
the reasons for believing that the brighter,
better DAYS of full confidence and general
activity will be brought by the coming Spring
and Summer, there are only to be urged the
uncertainty that always prevails just before
the parties are organized for a Presidential
campaign, and the possibility of foreign
war. The reader can judge for himself how
slight these reasons are.
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