Memphis daily appeal. [volume] (Memphis, Tenn.) 1847-1886, 1876-11-07

4 Of our most gIat ~ s.ss. II accept
able, al ow .g 20 Irs-e4- whst seems to
lie 10 be oar arrrcsta 10 the result
10 be determined Text Tn sday. Pr
hsps " ~ here Es ~ stim8tes
given b. the ma nay Hot be
amiss.
The "deIate'5e = S'-Nfichigau,
/ NJ ssachusetIs. New q N spirs, Illi-
nos, and PegEsv v8uIs--namtd by the
well Informed DsmCcTB &c side Of the
house, in ray opinion m1.! i be count.
7 90 Tor Hayes
Tae Republican u jsd y ~ A. coo in
NJ cnigan ia 1872 s. Fs-iiebtfsI yeEr
disastrous to the D u1.iG'ic larty, al
though aPpaTGEty 7 agld in 1874 10
$500 Is a.iil 700 large t. be overcome,
and certainly the charm m Of the Re-
publican national committee cannot a..
/ ford sEd does rUs pTgp0ss 10 let i De.
hRss2cl u'ett5 in 1874 gave Dsmo-
cratic mfj Tity fcI governor OF 1000. and
in 1875. With one TEN mCsYancs and two
independent tickets Ia tne field, gave
the Republican g 5verHnr a majority of
5000. and the State officers an average
Of 20 600 m5jo-i'y. 1. c1lnot be *.
peo'ed thaa Jnis can be " I'd out.
New Hampshire, alih ugh always
clio 10 late elections; hssi = late record
! 6 l7-saf ~ such --.~ser az tU-pre-
clude the idea OF her being debatable
Comment in the sase OF Illinois is un-
necessary. Any close observer, after
being in the southern and central Dor.
tons Of the State, would dismiss the
possible idea OF lis shifting from 8 35, 600
Republican State to the smallest imag-
| Unable Democratic majority.
| Pennsylvania uuquj stionabIy comes
nearer beirg debatsbe. ard yet my con-
clUsiOns sre thstit must be counted with
the Republican States. Outside of Phil.
adelphia very little enthusiasm has been
awakened. The canvass has been, SO
far as the larger agricultural districts are
! concerned, comparatively dull. The
msjority given Hsrtranft in 1875 ~ OOO)
has an ugly look for Democratic success
when backed this year by The Cameron
Influence. Pennsylvania must be con-
ceded to the Republicans. or the States
called "probable for Tiiden," certainly
Florida is las safe as church EOr him."
Now taking the Republican estimate
OF States certain for TildeD," they give
! him an electoral vote of 123, instead Of
l2l, as the figures claim.
The States admitted by Democratic
managers as sure for Hayes, implied by
their absence from any list, are Colo.
RADIO, 3; Iowa, Il; Kansas, 5; Maine, 7;
| Minnesota, 3; Nebraska, 3; Nevada 8;
OaiO, q; Rhode Island, 4, and Yer
| mont, 5, tOtSl Of IS, to which we must
| add the so called debagable States OF
Michigan, IL; Massachusetts,, l3; New
Hempshire, 5; Illinois, 2l; and Penn.
! sylvanis, %, O totsl Of 79-making q
grand total Of Republic n electoral votes
conceded of 147.
Our comparison now stands-TiIden,
1913; Hayes, 147; and the States and
electoral votes in dispute as follows:
California, 6; Connecticut, 6; Indiana,
| Is; New York, 95: New jersey, g.;
North Carolina, TO- Oregon, 3; South
| CAROLINA, 7; Wisconsin, 10
If we now take the States OF Indiana,
Oregon and Connecticut, claimed as
sure for Tilden by the Democratic cam
paigner7, and admitted doubtful by the
R publican magsates, and add to Mr..
Ii denis column, we fild each candidate
has l47 electoral vote', sn even race so
fer, and leaving New York, New jersey,
North Carolina, South Oar Ina and
| Wisconsin to d6Cids the resu {.
So far in this mpRTisol l have taken
tie admissions and est;mstas Of the Re-
Eu )liCsn National com mmiitge, and
equally wEliinfCrmei Democratic Of
tieisls, and probably most observers
whose sympathies 90 not outTun their
Judgment will sgTee with me in consid-
| ering my probabilities very probable.
Now, either candidate must have 1S5
votes to elect him; or, of the n electoral
votes remaining in t'Rs States Of New
/ YORK, New jersey, GOyth Carolina
South Carolina and Wisconsin, he must
get SO. On this showing, so far, New
York will not elect.
We cannot count-fTom the observa-
ton of the lsst three weeks which |
| have spent in western and central New
York, and fron the harmony now exist
| ing in New York city, taken into ac-
count with the increased registration in
the larger cities-upon anything but a
| Democratic victory in this State, Still
| MI. Tilden lacks votes to elect him,
and Mr.. Hayes SO,
Our Republican candidate must now
carry California, New Jersey. North
Carolina, South Carolina and Wiseon-
| Sin, to elect him. The vote Of any one
OF these States, added to Mr.. Tilden's,
elects him. Wisconsin and California
will probably record for Hayes, leaving
New Jersey, North Carolina and South
Carolina really the deciding ground.
| From all l am able to learn | conclude
the Republicans will succeed In South
Carolina, although change has come
over the spirit Of their dreams within
the past ten Gays, such as may insure
the State for Hampton and the electoral
vote for Tiidep. Or all States classed
as close ] think South Carolina now
heads the list.
From what have been able to learn
of jersey prospects during the few days
/ have besn within her borders, since
Saturday LAST, judge it this year Dena-
Ocratic. The Democratic msjorities
have increased steadily since 1868. In
that year Randolph, Democratic COVER
nor, had q majority Of 1900. In 1871
Parker had 5000, and in 1874 her present
governor, Bodie, who is taking an act
I've interest in Mr.. Tilden's favor, had
1900. By this showing we give Mr..
Tilden i've more than necessary, and
allow Mr.. Hayes both the Carolinas.
Surely the campaign ia the closest one
We have seen for years, and slight
changes only in some of the smaller
States would be fatal to the success of
either. We close our comparison with
the table, leaving no doubtful States to
wrangle over.
EStfmaEes for TFLCeYl. Estimates for Hdyes