The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1876-10-27
Turkey and Russia-War Still Prob-
able.

us from the various capitals of Europe for
the Eastern question IS passing through
various phases of diplomacy too subtle for
those at u distance to appreciate thorough
lv. When correspondents at Belgrade aud
Constantinople confess themselves unable
to uuravc its tangled skeins, we may fair
ly be excused from doing more than point
out the leading features of the situation ms
it presents itself to-day.
The immediate effect of the latest
negotiations has been to force Rus
STA to show her hand. Those who
have closely watched her policy in va
rious quarters of the world can have but
little dihiculty in penetrating it now.
From the moment that the original plan
OF encompassing the disintcgration of tn
Turkish Empire in Europe by internal in
surrection failed, she found herself COM
mtted to a new and more daring line OF
action than she anticipated, aud somewhat
reluctantly, but none the less surely, she is
now diplomatizing herself into war with
Turkey on her own conditions. She
has been encouraged in this line of
conduct by the sympathy with her osten-
sible objects which has been evoked
throughout Europe and especially in Eng
land, by the Turkish atrocities; but she is
too astute not to know that sentimental
outbursts are liable to reactions, aud that
in the long run nations are governed rather
by their interests than their feelings. It
becomes, therefore, of the utmost impor-
lance to her to have the political support
of some powerful European ally as well
rs the popular sympathy OF so-called hui
mantarians to rely upon.
The only power which is so politi-
cally situated rs to give this support
effectively is Germany; but even Ger
many cannot give it unless Turkey fur
nishes Russia with some more valid cause
of war than she has yet done. Turkey has
offered "A six months armistice with the
approval OF four Of the principal powers
of Europe This Russia ut once re-
fused, thus making it plain that peace
full solution of the question is not
what sho really desires, for there
were no conditions attached by Tur-
key to tins armistice which Euro
pean conference, If actuated by sincere
desire for peace, might not have satisfacto-
rily solved. In fact they might have i'm
posed upon Turkey at the end of six
months any conditions upon which they
were agreed but rs such conference
would have acted not in the interest of
Russia but of the Christian subjects of the
Porte, n SIX months armistice aud confer
ence were most distasteful to the Russian
Government, and they were encouraged
by the attitude of Germany to reject IT.
Nothing has occurred more significant OF
secret understanding between Prince COR
cHAKoFF and Prince BISMARCK than the
position OF Indifference which the latter
has assumed on this occasion.
The counter demand of Russia has
been a SIX weeks armistice. This is
too short "a time for "A peaceful sou-
ton to be arrived at between the
European powers either bv confer
euce or by negotiation, and Turkey there
fore rejects ~, unless "A cOud ton be
added that IN case of y peaceful solution
not being arrived at within six weeks, the
armistice shall be prolonged for six weeks
more. If Russia were animlted by the
motives she processes. she could not refuse
SO reasonable demand: and there
are indications that the Servlaus them
selves. who are beginning to get alarmed
Mt the occupation OF their country by
Russian army. would gladly consent ut
once to protractel armistice; but this
would not suit Russia. That poweris too far
committed 20 recede, AMI cllculitcs on
winter campaign, when operations by the
Turkish fleet IN the Black Sea would be
dIficllt and the army IN Servil in a far
less favorable position to resist 50 formida-
Bile an attack than it would be with more
time to prepare for it.
Should Turkey be so ill-advised as to
consent now 10 six weeks arms.
tice under the pressure Of the Eng
lish Government, goaded into that i'm
polite step by the sentimental stat .smen
who are using their lofty sensibilities to
turu the present Government out of of,ico
In the hope of getting in themselves, the
effect will not be to avert the war, but
simply to place Turkey in a worse position
to engage in II than she is at present. She
sees this so clearly that operations on the
Morava and Drina are being pushed for
ward with renewed vigor; but even were
Russia to consent to the prolongation re-
CURED by Turkey, which is not likely. she
would attach such conditions as would
make its acceptance impossible; and it is
upon lncrc cOuulllOns tHut tHt Olncf pow
ers of Europe will finally have to declare
themselves.
The definite issue will ultimately
come to this "The status quo ante
belium for Servia, with reforms TO
be guaranteed by the powers for
tho Christian populations OF Bosnia,
Herzegovina, and Bulgaria, and port
between Cattaro aud Antivari for Mon
tenegro." This win DO the proposition
OF ENGLAND supported by France, Austria,
and possibly IIaly. The Russian proposal
will be tho autonomy of the above
named provinces under conditions impos-
sibla for the Porte to accept because they
would Involve similar autonomy for
ROumeia, Epir aud the provinces in-
habited by the Greek race, ana might even
give rise 10 such demands on the part Of
the Armeniaus and Christians in Asiaiic
Turkey as would amount practically 10 the
dissolution Of tho entire empire. How
ever much, in the opinion of some, this
may be desirable in the cause of ciyilza-
ton, It Is evident thet Turkey cannot be