The New York herald., 1876-11-03

PRESIDENTIAL SPECULATIONS.

To rHx EDITOR THE HERALD:-
Your Presidential specuations in Tuesdays issue
attract my attention The figures given, maniiestly
influenced by the sympahcs OF the republican and
democratic Official authors, hardly comport with the
ideas be arrived at after tho careful scrutiny Of tho
reports OF your correspondents from all sections OF the
country, and my own observations, who have. since
The first day OF July last travelled through every State
in the Union few far Western and some OF our
most southerly II acceptable, allow me to pre-
sent what seems 10 10 be near approach TO The
result be determined next Tuesday Perhaps word
hero as 10 tho estimates given by the managers may
not be amiss
TIE ..dcbatabic states"-Mlchigan, Massachusetts,,
the well informed democratic side oil the House, IN my
opinion must all be counted Tor Hayes.
The republican majority of 1900 in Michigan In
1872 Presidential year disastrous to the democratic
party although apparently reduced in 1874 to 600 Is
st too large TO be overcome and certainly The Chair
man OF tho Republican National Committee cannot
afford and does not propose TO let II be.
Massachusetts in 1874 gave u democratic majority
Tor Governor OF 1000, and In 1875 Win temper
and two independent tickets in tho held gave
the republican Governor majority OF 5000. and The
S,ae officers average OF 20 $50 majority, IL cannot
bc expected that this can be wiped oui.
New Hampshire, although always close IN State
elections, OF late recorded herself III such nai-
ncr as To preclude The idea OF her being debttabie.
Comment in the case OF Illinois - unnecessary Any
close observer alter being IN The southern ani central
portions oil the STATE wonid dismiss tho possible lca
Oi us shiiting from 50 600 republican State 10 the
smallest imaginable democratic majority
Pennsylvania unqucstouabiy comes nearer being de-
batabc. and yet my conclusions are that II must be
counted with the republican states Outside OF Phila-
delphia very little enthusiasm has been awakened
The has been lar as the larger agricultural
districts concerned, comparatively dull The
majority given Hartranit in 1873 ~ 0oo) has ugly
look or ucmocratc success when backed tnis year by
the Cameron influence Pennsylvania must 10 con
cedci TO the republicans or the States caned prob
able for Tildcn' certainly Florida Is las safe as
church Tor INN.
Now taxing the republican estimate of estates
for Tldcn' they give him an electoral vote o l2
instead OF l2l AS the heures claim
Tho States admitted by democratic managers US sure
for Hayes implied by Their absence from any list, are
Colorado, 3; Iowa, IL; Kansas, Maine. Minnesots
s. Ncbraska, 3; Nevada 3; On.o, -; Rhode Island, T.
and Vermont, total oi bS, to which we must add
Tho socnlled dcbaabIe states OF Michigan IL Massa
chusetts 49, New Hampshire ); limos, Il, anu
Pcnnsyly ania % total oil 79-making grand total OF
rcpuoiican electoral votes conceded Of l41.
Our COMPARISON stnnds--Tiden 1885, Hayes,
147; and states and electoral votes In dispute
follows :-Caiorna, .; counccilcut. 8; Indiana Is;
oregon. 8; south Carolina, /; Wisconsin, TO-
II now take the states oil Indiana Oregon and
Connecticut GAINED as surc Tor Tden by tue demo
cratic campagncrs, aud admitted doubtful by the
publican magnaics, and add TO Mr. Tlldcn's column,
we ind each candidate has l41 electoral votes,
race 80 lar and leaving New York, Now Jersey North
Carolina South Carolina aud WISCONSIN 10 decide the
result
SO lar in this comparison | have taken the adms-
slons and estimates ot the Rcpubcan Nat onnl Com
mitiee and equally we'll informed democratic officials,
aud probably observers whose sympathcs do
outrun their judgment VIII agree with me In con
sidering my probabilities very probable.
Now ciiher candidate must nave 1s5 votes to elect
him; or Of the II electoral votes remaining in the
States New York, New Jersey North Carolina, south
Carolina and Wisconsin, he must get 80. On ihs
showing, so far, New York will not elect
We cannot count-rom tho observation OF the last
three weeks which have spent IN Western and Gen.
trail Now York. and from The harmony now sHsting IN
New York CITY, taken INTO account with the Increased
registration In the larger clties-upon anything but
democratic victory in this State Stlil Mr. Tden lacks
four votes to elect him and Mr.. Hayes thirty
Our republican candidate must now carry California,
Now Jersey, North Carolina, south Carolina ana Wis
cousin, 10 elect him. Tne vote Of any one Of these
States added TO Mr. Tldcns present Agurcs elects him.
Wisconsin ana California Will prouablc record Tor
Hayes leaving New Jersey, North Carolina anu South
Carolina really the deciding ground.
From all | am able 10 learn, conclude the rcpub
l,cans will succeed In south Caroina, although n
change has come over the spirit oil their dreams
within the past days such insure The State
Tor Ham pon and tho electoral vote for Tdcn OF all
States classcd close | think South Carolina
heads the list.
From what have been enabled to learn OF Jersey
prospects during Tho lew days have been within her
borders. since saturday last Judge II this year demo-
cratic The democratic majoritcs have Increased
steadily since 1868 In that year Randolph democratic
Governor had majority OF 800 In 1874 Parker had
900 aud IN 1874 her present Governor, Bedle, who
taking active interest IN Mr. TiIdcn's favor, had
~ OUU BY this showing we give Mr.. Tilden nve more
than necessary and allow Mr.. Hayes both the Caro-
liuas. surely the campaign the closest one have
sccn for years, and slight changes only In The
smaller states wouid bc fatal TO the success oil either
Wc close comparison with the table, leaving no
doubtful states to wranglc over
Esindfes for TiidsR. Estindks for Hayes
Alabama. 10 Caliiorna.