, 1876-11-29
THE "AVIs"
IS PUBLISHED
EVERY WEDNESDAY n SATURDAY.
T II E L I'LL.
(From the SPECTATOR

We incline to believe that this lull in
Eastern affairs is more or less an illusion.
The popular theory in England, where
men always dislike to believe in war, is
that the Government of Russia is djsinc,il-
ed for active hostiIities, and that the states
men OF the Porte, finding themselves lso-
lated, are ready to make very considera-
BILE concessions. The Times on Thursday
adopted this pleasant view, and the specu-
lators on the Stock Exchange profess to
be greatly "encouraged" by the compare
lively peaceful aspect Of affairs. Turkey,
they say, accepts an armiStice, and during
an armistice affairs are sure to be either
" arranged by diplomacy" or at all events
to be huddIed UP somehow, so as to look
peaceable. Stocks, therefore, have begun
to rise, there is "more business doing
on Change, and the extraordinary people
who sell Railway shares and English gas
shares and shares in American enterprises
because Russia may land troopa in BuIga-
ria, begin to doubt the farsightedHess of
which they were at first a little proud.
This sweet sense of security in the
value Of CODsOls rests, however, upon a
very thin foundafi0n,-th belief in the
readiness Of the leading Ottoman Tashas
to surrender a large part Of European Tur-
KEY to it's own inhabitants. OF course, It
they are ready to do that, which, though
improbable, Is, as we shall presently show,
not absolutely impossible, cadi quesjo,
and there may be peace, or rather a truce
lasting a few months, but any other solu-
ton j. too much out OF the que ton to
be Sc lousy regarded. The Times appa-
rently believes in the "moderatiOn" OF
Russia or else in its fears, but where is the
evidence of eitherH The Cur, no doubt,
like any other hypochoodriac oppressed by
vast responsibilities, prefers peace, and the
able men about him, like all other men Of
sense, would much rather obtain shejr
ends by "moraI force,"-that is, by the
impression created by forco not yet in
movement, than waste lives and treasure
and Jisk the endless chances of war by
taking the field at once, They will neg0-
tiate, therefore, willingly; and as to the
element OF time, there is no time lost by a
few weeks negotiation, even if it should
prove sterile. Russia has not only to co..
lect troops, but commisSariat for her troops.
dLu though Her faIlWdyS DFlu9 IeI Closer
TO Seryia, they do not bring her close to
Che Armenian frontier, her second base of
operations. She will need her desert artil-
lery there, which it takes time to collect
from the ~arsenals and to bring from Tur-
kestan, and she must have some supplies
on a scale for which Tifis is as yet unpro-
vided. She has always been willing to
consent to a elk weeks armistice, and is, of
course, willing also to waste six weeks
In discussing whether an armistice shall be.
The lull, however, affords no evidence
that she has changed her mind, and certain
lY the great force behind the throne which
is urging the Gear forward remains in pre-
ciselY the same mood. Immense and visi-
bic advantages must be gained for the
Slavs, or the atate of feeling in Russia
among the upper classes and in the Army
will be one of angry criticism of the Gov
ernment,-that is, the popular mind, and
especially the popular military mind, will
be Just in the mood which an autocratic
Government most breads. This view,
which we believe to be taken by all who
know Russia, is confirmed by all the few