The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1876-05-26
ConkIing and Hayes Against thu

publican side Mr.. Conkling rises into
clearer visibility as the leading candidate
to eyes trained to distinguish between .
mountain and . bank Of clouds when they
stand against the horizon. To the unprac-
tised eye of stranger a line Of clouds may
seem like range of mountains rs they lie
in the distance, but nearer approach de-
which is illusion and which reality. 1t is
only to distant and superficial view that
Blaine seems stronger than Conkling, and
the nearer we get to the Cincinnati Conven-
ton the more evident it will become that
there is no solidity in the boasted strength
of Mr.. Blaine.
Unless Mr.. Blaine enters the Convention
with majority he will never get majority
ut all. The reason is that his rivals can
more easily make alliances with one another
than with him. II Morton fails his strength
will naturally 60 to Conkling-certainly not
to Blaine. When the Pennsylvania delegates
cease voting tor Hartranft they will be trans
ferred in body to Conkling Blaine will not
receive single vote from among them all.
When the Ohio delegates withdraw Hayes
they might 60 for Bristow if he had any
chance of success but it will be evident by
that time that he has none at all and as
soon as Morton is out Of the race they will
prefer Conkling, and. perhaps, 60 for him
without waiting to watch the prospects
of any other candidate. Governor Hayes
is altogether the best name for the
second place on the ticket and when
his friends find that he cannot be nonni-
mated for the first place they will pre-
fer an alliance, not with Morton, who, being
himself q Western man, would exclude .
Western candidate for Vice President, nor
with Blaine, who cannot carry the indispen-
sable State of New York, but with Conkling,
who will be supported by the two largest
States in the Union. Governor Hayes
friends will perceive that when Ohio is
joined with these two there will be solid
nucleus of the three largest States, having
an aggregate of one hundred and seventy
two votes in the Convention. The Southern
States, as soon as Morton and Bristow are
out of the field, will bring to Conk-
ling more than votes enough to make
a majority with those of the three
great States of New York, Pennsylva-
mia and Ohio. The faintest intimation
of President Grants wish will turn over the
Southern delegations to Conkling as soon as
they are satisfied that Morton cannot be
nominated Only two hundred and sixteen
of the Southern delegates are needed to make
a Conkling majority with three great States,
and when Morton is withdrawn Conkling
will have at least two hundred and fifty votes
from the South. Besides, he will have the
votes Of the Pacific States and part of
the Blaine delegation, when it becomes
evident, as it will at an early stage of the
candidate. This exhibit of figures and
probabilities shows that Blaines only chance
lies in his getting majority on the first
ballot, and the most sanguino of his friends,
unless they are the victims Of hallucination,
cannot expect this. He needs all or nearly
all the delegates yet to be chosen to increase
his present number to . majority. 1t would
be wild and chimerical to expect anything
of the kind. A very little arithmetic
suffices for showing how illusory are the
hopes and boastings founded upon the ac-
ton of the conventions held on Wednesday.
Moreover, of the delegates counted tor
Blaine the greater proportion will 60 to Gin
cinnat unpledged and will have more
complete liberty to vote for another candi-
date than the Pennsylvania and Ohio dele
gates will have TO abandon Hartranft and
Hayes.
The strongest ticket that can be nominated
at Cincinnati is Conkling and Hayes, be-
cause it would insure success in the two
pivotal States of Ohio and New York.
With Governor Hayes running for the
Vice Presidency the Ohio election
in October would be splendid tri-
umph for the republicans, and that
preliminary victory would insure similar
triumph in New York, where Conkling is
strong and Blaine weak. Certain it is that
without the vote of New York the republican
party cannot elect the President. 1t would
be political suicide to nominate Blaine, when
the vote of New York is indispensable. The
personal bitterness which has SO long existed
between him and Conkling makes it impossi-
BILE for him to carry State in which the
friends of Conkling are powerful Blaine
will lead at Cincinnati on the first ballot. be-
cause in the first ballot a large share of
Conkling's ultimate strength will be scat
tered in complimentary votes to other can
didates-particularly to Hartranft, Hayes
and Morton, all of whom will be withdrawn
at subsequent stage of the pro-
ceedings. But Blaine has no reversionary
interest in any Of the delegations
which will vote for other candidates
on the first ballot, and he cannot have ma
jority on the first ballot unless all, or nearly
all. of tho one hundred and seven delegates
yet to be chosen shall be added to his pres
emit strength. But this is too violent a sup
position for any sane man to make