The New York herald., 1876-10-18
Dental canvnss-Is II . Doubtful
State9

states
We have seen no claim by the organs or
spokesmen of either political party that they
expect to carry the Presidential election
without the aid of New York. Both sides
admit that the electoral votes of New York
are indispensable to success, and both
express confidence real or feigned, in their
ability to secure them. 1t being conceded
that the party which loses New York will
fail to elect its Presidential candidate, no
inquiry can have deeper interest than an
estimate of the grounds on which ench party
hopes, or processes to hope, for success in
this State.
Primd tdcie, there is presumption that
the party which carried State in the last
election will continue to hold it. There is
nothing to weaken this presumption in the
elections which have thus far been held
during the present year. Vermont and
Maine. which were republican in 1875, are
republican in 1876 without any material
change of majorities. Connecticut, carried
by the democrats in the spring of 1875, was
also carried by the democrats in the spring
hold in Ohio, in Indiana, in West Virginia
and in Georgia Should it likewise hold in
New York the State will have o democratic
majority, as it had last year, and in that
case Mr.. Tilden will be elected President.
But there are, nevertheless, reasons for re-
garding New York as doubtful, and should
it go republican Mr.. Hayes will undoubtedly
be elected.
We proceed to state some Of the grounds
on which we think the result in New York
uncertain. In the first place, there is no
State in the Union in which the experience
of the last ten years shows that the strength
of parties is subject to such violent and ex-
trcme fluctuations. In 1866 there was re-
publican majority in this State of 13,S79,
and in the very next year, without any de-
Unable cause for SO great change demo
cratic majority of 4793O-a difference Of
1909 in single year. In 1870 the demo-
Gratis carried the State by majority of
20, 730, and the next year it was carried
by the republicans by n majority Of
year. The most surprising somersault
of all is that which took place between
the gubernatorial elections Of 1872 and
1874. Governor Dix was elected by the re-
publicans in 1872 by the heavy majority Of
55, 451, and Governor Tilden in 1874 by the
almost equally heavy democratic majority of
so, 317, making the enormous difference Of
los, ,768 in two successive gubernatorial
elections In State which '.fops" (par-
don vulgar but expressive word) in this
sudden way from one side to the other it is
never safe to found any expectations on the
election returns Of the preceding year. The
democrats indeed carried the State last
year but it was by small plurality Of only
14,S1O, with prohibition vote of II. .103
consisting almost entirely of repub-
licans, SO that the democratic majority
last year was really only 3,707. Moreover,
the total vote of the State last year was
only 776, 715, whereas in 1872 it was $40, 151,
the stay-at-home voters last year consisting
mainly of republicans. When these facts
are duly weighed it is difficult to find any
solid ground for the sanguine expectations
expressed by some of Mr.. Tildens friends
respecting his prospects in this State. 1t is
only by strained inference that New York
can be said to have indorsed him last fall.
He went upon the stump himself and
begged for a Legislature which would sup
port his policy, but the Legislature elected
was strongly republican in both branches,
although in the preceding year democratic
Assembly was elected with Mr.. Tilden, the
republican Senate holding over. 1t was
merely nominal victory which the demo-
cratic party won in this State last year, fur
nishing more reasons for apprehension
than for confidence.
It would be over sanguine and absurd for
democrats to reason from 1874 to 1876. Since
1874 they have met with almost uniform
losses in the Northern States, losses SO great
and general rs to make the year of the "tidal
wave an inadmissible standard of compari-
son. In the Southern States the democrats
have kept all they gained in 1874 and made
new additions to their strength; but in tho
North there has been a general decline, the
democratic majorities of the tidal year hav-
ing been in some cases reversed and in most
other cases diminished. We will begin with
the Northern States which have just held
elections. In Ohio the democrats had ma
jority of II, in 1874, and this year the
republicans have a majority about two-thirds
as large. In Indiana the democratic majority
in 1874 was 17,252; this year it is reduced to
about $500. Pennsylvania had demo-
cratic majority OF 4,697 in 1874, but in 1875
it was reversed and the republicans had
majority of IL, 030. In Illinois the combined
opposition to the republican porty carried
the State in 1874 by a majority of 30, SOC, but
it would be ridiculous to suppose that the
electoral votes of Illinois will not be given
to Hayes. Even Massachusetts, gave dem
ocratic majority of 1852 in 1874 but it was
reversed last year and no State is more Sc