The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1875-07-08

1
DENTAL probabilities or possibilities during
the year which precedes Presidential cleo
ton. Twelve months hence the range OF con-
lecture will have been narrowed to the COM
parative prospects of the two parties which
will then be in the field with Their candidates
and their platforms 1t will then be a simple
question as to which Of two known candidates
is more likely to win. But at present the in
teresting point of speculation relates to the
chances of some three or four men on each
side tor the nomination.
Among the public men supposed to cherish
Presidential aspirations Vice President Will
son has evinced a truer insight than any other
stat sman on the republican side. No other
| public man has so strongly seized or so fully
comprehends the powerful influence of the
centennial year on the canvass. No man 50
well understands the American tendency
to gush and as American gush is always ex-
travagant it will not confine itself within
bounds next year, when there will be so much
justification. We are the most impulsive
people in the world; we are never moderate on
festive occasions. The absurd fuss we made
over Dickens on the occasion of his first
visit, the equally extravagant fuss we made
over the visit OF Kossuth, and our elusive
demonstrations on the visit of the Prince OF
Wales are conspicuous instances of the
tendencies of the popular heart on occasions
which justify an outpouring. On all such
occasions the stream overaows its channel
like spring food and mandates
the bordering regions. Mr.. Wilson, who
understands the American people from sym
pathy, is quicksto perceive how the natural
tendency to gush and extravaganza will color
our politics next year. 1t is already apparent
to him, as it will soon be TO everybody, that
the stock ideas of the republican party will
be at discount In the great centennial
year. The effusive patriotism of 1876 is
certain to manifest itself in tone Of magnan-
imous generosity to the South, and as the
republican party has achieved it's former
victories by playing upon sectional hostilities,
it is too evident that its customary weapons
will be blunted in the centennial year. Mr..
Wilson has svinced prompt foresight and
sagacity in anticipating the potent influence
OF this feeling in the Presidential canvass.
This generous sentiment would naturally
operate to the advantage of the democratic
party, and Mr.. Wilson has exhibited the tact
OF an experienced politician in trying to turn
it to republican account. If he should be the
republican candidate the magnanimous spirit
of the centennial year could not be made an
element of democratic success.
Pint in IN 90 NJ
Wilson will not be the republican candidate.
He is cordially hated by the administration,
and Grant army Of Office holders will prevent
the nomination of man whose implied CEN
sures of their chief have brought him into dis
favor. The active exertion OF the federal
patronage is so important to the republican
party that its National Convention will not
nominate a candidate whom President Grant
would rather sea defeated than elected. Mr..
Wilson, signI rebuke of the President in his
recent letter extinguished his chances. When
he said that the Presidency is an honor
against which no amount of wealth can be
weighed by an honorable mind he dealt
thrust at General Grant which will never be
forgiven Grant in his third term letter, had
dwelt in complaining tone on his pecuniary
sacrifices in accepting the Presidency and
when Wilson, with that sordid letter fresh in
view, told the country that no amount OF
wealth should be weighed against SO high
an honor, the rebuke was so direct that
he must have counted on making the
President his deadly enemy, which was in
deed no sacrifice, tor he had already made
the President his enemy by his public express
sions of regret that Grant had not relieved
the party from the heavy incubus of the
third term. The republican party is not
strong enough to defy President Grant and
nominate a candidate in whose favor the
federal patronage would not be exerted Ac-
cording 10 present appearances Mr.. Wilson is
not possible candidate.
Mr.. Blaine is equally certain to encounter
the hostility Of the President. He has adroitly
but quietly exerted his influence against
the third term. The anti-third term resolution
in Pennsylvania, to which the President felt
constrained to reply and the similar repub-
lican resolutions in other States were insti-
gated by Blaine, and the whole influence of
tbe humlnlsIIdtlOn Will De eAerteu against MIN
in the National Convention. He has nothing
to expect from the army of office-holders, and
their active hostility is an obstacle which he
will not easily surmount Even if he should
get the nomination he could not be elected
without the aid of the federal patronage,
which he cannot expect after thwsrting the
third term aspirations of the President
According to present appearances the re-
publican nomination lies between Washburne
and Bristow WAshburne has strong points.
He has not been mixed up with our recent
controversies and has incurred no political
enmities. His conduct as Minister to France
in trying period deserves and receives un-
qualified praise. Nobody has ever questioned
Grants stanch fidelity TO his frienda ona =