Wilmington journal. [volume] (Wilmington, N.C.) 1844-1895, 1875-01-01
From the A mer:can Grocer.

|
against Is cents in May last-a decline
of A cents. August deliveries were
then selling at 49, cents and Deem
Der at II 1916 cents, while contracts
for this month are cow selling at 49,
cents, decline in December contracts
from the highest price during the sea-
son of 4 1-16. In searching for the
cause of this important decline we find:
first, the general dizziness of trade in
all markets and all branches of trade
and secondly and mainly, the large |
estimate of this years crop, varying |
from four to four and-a-h half million |
bales; and as long as such large esti- |
mates prevail we may look in vain for |
any important reaction. We differ |
very widely from those who figure up
such large crop for this year. be-
lieving that the smallest of these esti-
mates mny prove to be three-quarters
Of million above the actual result.
We do not find that the large estimates
are based on any reliable data, or that
they rest on anything but vague
notion that hot and dry SPINNER
must necessarily give a large cotton
crop. Another argument is the large
poct receipts for some weeks past.
Both arguments lack, in our opinion,
tho correct basis whic5, under ali cir
Gu instances, can be accepted as jndis-
putabiv correct. 1t is true, under
| ordinary circumstances, when plant
ing is commenced in March or April
| and finished before the middle of MAY,
and the plant has obtained a good
start aud strength, when warm and
| dry weather sets in during July and
August, the severest heat and long
drouth which would be fatal to other
crops, might not only not injure cotton
but prove positively beneficial. But
when, as WAS the case this year in con
| sequence Of unfavorable weather,
oyeIhows: etc, large portion of the
! crop has been planted very late-the
latter part Of May and the first half of
Junc-tben, under such circumstances,
Il long continued drought accompan-
| led ny excessive heat, after having re-
terded It, growth and finding the
plant weak and tender, must prove
very iI-jurio'ls, This is the position
we take; and nrGing or Wv c,rrobo-
rated, not on Y by the Agricultural
Bureau, but al-u ty tie cotton Ex-
charge of thu several departments,
and by greas IL; orit5 OF private cor
respondents, We Conclude that this
years crop viii lie found to give the
smallest yield per acre OF any year
since the war. We place the fullest
confidence IN the reports of the Agri-
cultural Bureau in regard to the con-
dltl0n Of the crop, for after close
study OF these reports for several years
back, We find those for S ptember,
when the plant may be said to have
reached maturity, have uniformly in
dicated very correctly the tota! yield
! q Of
IN this country in average seasons is
from 200 to COG pounds Ter acre. In
I>70-'7I it amounted to 2IG pounds
per acre, and was correctly Indicated
by the September report of the Bu-
reau Of that year, the condition of the
| crop for ali the States averaging 104
ID, Or l 2 per cent. over average
condition, Indicated by the figure 100,
, the total yield for that year being
4.347, 900 bales. In 1871 2 the Sep
tember condition of the c OPP, as "a
ported by the Bureau, WAS l9 per
| cent. below that Of the previous year,
and the total yield for that year being
2,974, 900 bales, the report proves to
} be substantially CORE ct. IL 1928
: the September condition, according to
: the Bureau, WAS 10 = per cent. be-
low that Of 1ST0-1l, and Was likewise
: borne ont by the result; and in 1873
: ~ the September condition, as re-
+ ported by the Bureau, was II 2 per
I cent. be.ow that of 1S7U-7l, and
proved to be equally correct.
Now, when through four successive
/ years the Bureau, IN its reports of the
L condition OF the crops in September,
: is shown to have been uniformly cor
i rect, is there not the best reason &c
= believe that it may be equally correct
e this year? When private reports and
: individual estimates vary so much, car
Y we have better guide in estimating
1 this years crop? The September re-
y port of the Bureau for this year makes
! the average condition for all the States
t 30 per cent below that of 1S7O-7i, &C
+ cording to which the total yield of this
o crop would be $3.50, 000 bales Of 40
). pounds each. The Bureau, on the Isl
Of June las. gave the area planted IL
= cotton as s, 123, 600 acres; but as we
D know that planting was then going or
n and was not completed until about the
: middle Of the month, we believe that
: the acreage may have been somewhat
: increased, aud for this reason, likewise
< in consequence Of the extraordinarily
q fine picking season, which enabled the
! planters to save every pound OF cotton
r that was grown, we add several hun
t dred thousand bales to what We 9th.
Y erwise should estimate, and put the
/ figure for this crop at $3.50, 600 bales.
t We attach no importance to the large
q port receipts for several weeks past,
: for we anticipated them IN spite Of
t our low crop estimate. The crop hav-
!. ing matured unprecedentediy early
and simultaneously, the planters were
enabled to pick it rapidly; and the
+ unusually large Indebtedness of plant
d ers-the monetary crisis and conse-
e quent depression of prices having pre-
r vented them from paying up last year,
: the urgency of their creditors obliged
g them to send it forward as rapidly as
D.. it could be got ready for market. This
: is no mere theory; we have the infor-
4 nation from the best authority.
: We make no prediction as to the
g course of prices. We content our
l selves with warning our subscribers
e that a rapid and important reaction
e may set in at any time. Twice since
f the war at Liverpool it has touched the
e price which is quoted from there to-
: day, or say about I'd. The first time
1 WAS in December. 1867, and three
: months after that date it had risen to
: Ida rise of 100 per cent. The
4 second time was in March 1871; and
j, in June OF that year it was sgd. We
e shall be very much surprised if his
e tory does not repeat itself during the
present season, and show us the price
: of low middling cotton in June next
in this ~ arket at zoe. and over. We
fear this year will be a disastrous one
1 for American manufacturers. The bad
trade in cotton goods has weakened
them end has prevented them from
, laying their usual stocks of the raw
material at low prices, while Europe
is getting All unusual proportion OF
our crop. II We are correct in our es-
innate of the crop, they may find the
country bare of cotton when they most
need 1t, and may then be forced to pay
exhorbitant prices.