, 1875-07-24
The next President.

ing the year which precedes Presidential
election. Twelve months hence the range OF
conjecture will have been nsrrC wed 10 the
comparative prospects OF the two parties
which will then be in The field with their
candidates and their platforms. 1t will then
be simple question as to which of two
known candidates is more likely to win. But
Ut present the interesting point OF specula-
tiOn relates 10 the chances of some three or
four men on each side for the nomination.
Among the public men supposed TO cherish
Presidential aspirations Vice President Viii
son has evineed truer insight than any
other statesman on the republican side. No
other public man has so strongly seized o. so
fully comarehends the powerful influence of
the cen ntennisl year on The canvass. No man
80 Well understands the American tendency
10 gush, and as American glIsh is alway ex-
travagant it will not confine itself within
bounds next year, when there will be so much
justification. We are the most impulsive
people IN the world We are never moderate
on festige occasions. The absurd fuss we
made over Dickens on the occasion of his
first visit, the equally extraysgant fuss we
made over the visit of Kossuth, aud our effu-
siye demons rations on the visit of the Prince
of Wales are conspicGous instances of the
tendencies of the popular heart on occasions
which Justify an outpouring. On all such
occasions the stream OverfOws its channel
like srring food and iHundates the border
ing regions Mr. Wilson, who understands
the American people from sympathy, is quick
TO perceive how the natural tendency TO gnsh
and extravaganza will color our politics next
year. 1t Is already apparent 10 him, as it
will sOoa De to everybody, that the stock
ideas of the republican party will be at dis
cOunt III the great centennial year. The
effusive patriotism of 1876 is certain TO mani
fest Itself In tone OF magnanimoUs gener
osity to the South, and as the republican
party has achieved its former victories by
playing upon sectional hostilities, it Is too
evident that its customary weapons will be
bfuuted III the centennial year. Mr.. Wilson
has evinced prompt foresight and sagaci'y in
anticipating the potent influence of :his feel
ing in the Presidential canvass. This gem
erous sentiment would naturally operate to
the advantage of the democratic party, and
Dir. Wilson has exhibited the tact of an ex-
perienced politician III trying to turn it to
republican account. If he should be the re-
publican candidate the Isagnanimous spirit
Of the centennial year could not BE- made an
element of democratic sdccess.
But, in spite of this dexter0us bid, Mr..
Wilson viii not be the republican candidate.
He Is cordially hated by the administration,
and Grants army of office holders Will pre-
vent the nomination of n man whose implied
cenSures Of their chief have brought him into
disfavor. The active exertiOn of the federal
patronage is - important 10 The republican
party that its National Convention will net
nominate a candidate whom President Grant
would rather see defeated han elected. Mr.
Wilson's signal rebuke Of the President in
his recent letter ex'inguished his chances.
When he said that The Presidency is an hon
or against which no amount If wealth can
DO weighed by an honorable mind he dealt
thrust at General Grant which will never he
forgiven. Grant, in his third term letter,
had dwell IN complaining tone on his
pecuniary sacrifices in accepting the Presl-
dency; and when Wilson, with that sOrdid
letter fresh in view, told he country that no
amount of wealth should be weighed against
so high An honor, the retuke was so direct
that he must have counted on making the
President his deadly enemy, which was IN
deed no sacrifice, for he had already made
the President his enemy ty his public express
sions OF regret that Grant lad not relieved
the party from the hesyy incubus of the
third term. The republican party is not
strong enough TO defy President Grant and
nominate a candidate in whose favor the
federal patronage would not be exerted- Ac-
cording TO present appearances Mr.. Wilson is
not possible candidate.
Mr. Blaine is equally certain to encounter
the hostility of the President. He has adroit-
ly but quietly exerted his influence against
the third term The anti-third term resoiu-
ton in Pennsylvania, to which the President
felt constrained TO reply, and the similar re-
publican resolutions in other States were in
stigated by Blaine, and the whole influence
OF the administration will be exerted against
him in the National Convention. He has
nothing TO expect from the army of Office
holders, and their active hostility Is an OBJ
stacle which be will not easily surmount.
Even if he should get the nomination he
could not be elected without the aid of the
federal patronage, which he cannot expect
after thwarting the third term aspirations OF
the President.
According TO present appearances the re-
publican nomination lies between Washburne
and Bristow. Washburue has strong points.
He has not been mixed up with our recent
controversies and has incurred no political
ermities. His conduct as Minister TO France
III trying period deserves and receives un-
| qualified praise Nobody has ever questioned
| Grants stanch fidelity 10 his friends, and he
| has no friend in the world to whom he is so
much indebted for distinguished services as
! 10 Mr.. Washburue. There is no republican
/ candidate in whose favor the federal patron
age would be exerted with such hearty
! aIaerity and vigor. Bristo1 would doubtless
receive the Presidents support if he should
| get the nomination but be is too new a man
! 10 be strongly pressed for the nomination.
He has no personal following outside Oi
Kentucky, which is a democratic State, and
it is not customary for political parties to
( payains6e & Psesi2eueia1 cso0S9ace %aN cSN-
not possibly carry bis own State in The eIeo-
,ion. According TO present appearances
! Washburne's chances are altogether the best
! for the republican nomination.
| On the democratic side Tilden seems to
lead, but his prospects are subject 10 many
contingencies. If the democratic inhati0nis'
should carry Ohio this year his chances will
be worthless, becsrse in that event the infia
tionis,s Will be strong enough either to con-
troll the convention or TO compel a CONF promise
and Tilden took such bod hard money ground
in his annual message that he can neither bt
an imitation candidate nor q compromist
candidate. But il the Ohio democrats should
be badly beaten the Tiden Presidential stocl
will be at premium, provided he does no
get q, lOggerhesds with a democratic Lesis
l.tue next winter II Is essential TO bis sue
cess that the New York delegation supper
him, and il he should quarrel with the mex
I Legislature his chances would be wOrti
nothing, even if the inhationists lose Ohit
next fall But, subject TO- these contingen
cies, Mr.. Tilden's cbabees seem very good 10
the deInoczs,ic nomination, especially wher
we consider the weakness OF his competitors
Thurman is as good 8, dead since the Obi
blupder; Hendricks in the same predics