New-York tribune., 1875-11-01
THE KEYSTONE STATE.
TUESDAYS PROBABILITIES.

TUESDAYS PROBABILITIES.
NO CONFUSION OF PARTY LISEs-HARrRANFr GOOD
FOR 10000 OR $4,000 MAJoRIrY-pIoLIEr En-
yoYING CHANCE OF sUCCEss-A LIGHT VOTE
COMPARED WITH 1872.
IrRox THE REGULAR CORRESPONDENT or THE TRIDUNE.l
PHnApELPmA, Oct. 81. Since the Ohio cleo
ton l have visited the counties of Lancaster,
Dauphin, Lebanon, Berks, Schuylkill, Lycoming,
Luzene, Carbon, Lehigh, and Northampton, in the
eastern part of the State and Allegheny in the
western part and have met politicians of both par
ties from the northern tier counties, from the OIL re-
gion, the Cumberland Valley, and the lumber
region above Williamsport. Information has thus
been obtained from every section where local
causes such az depressed industries, might disturb
the ordinary currents of politics, well as from the
steady-gong districts where the relative strength OF
parties seldom undcrgoes a change. review Of the
mass of facts, opinions, and predictions thus gath
cred leads TO the following conclusions:
First: Nowhere are there indications of a breaking
down of party lines On toe contrary, the breaches
made last year by dissatisfied Republicans in the
western part of the State have been seduously re-
paired and the stray sheep brought back into the
PARTY fold. The currency issue has checte1
no shifting Of large bodies of voters from
one side to the other, rs 1t dd III
Ohio. IL was most thoroughly discussed. One
party was afraid and the other dared not handle IT,
On the news of Gov. Aliens defeat the Democrats
retired 10 what they thought the safe ground oil OPP
position TO resumption. The Republicans advanced
from the neutral portion of the Lancaster platform;
and with the help of Gov. HAYES, eX-Gov Noyes,
and Judge Taft Of Ohio, opened hard-money can
yass in the East though tmid TO push II beyond
the Alleahenies. In that infation-crazed section,
the Republican papers, until siienced by the result
in Ohio had assured their readers that the Lancaster
platform was "sOfter" on the money question than
the Erie platform. Not making general. honest,
and earnest attack on the greenback delusion the
Republicans have gained very few votes from the
hard-money Democrats, while the Democrats have
accomplished little with their reform issue, because
they made it a secondary affair. All politicians
know that the only way to make successful night
for reform is TO subordinate everything else to that
idea.
Second The vote will he a hight one, rs compared
with that cast at the gnbernatOral election OF le|2
1t will be heavier on both sides than 1t was last
year but the percentage Of Republican gains will he
nearly double that of Democratic. The reason for
this is that the Republicans have diligently
strengthened the weak points in their line, devel-
oped by last Falls vote while the foolish Demo-
Gratis waited for their brethren in Ohio to do their
work for them. Everywhere the Republican organ
izaiOn is the better One everywhere Democrats are
poorly equipped for the fight.
Third: The predicted desertiOns from the Republi
can ranks on account of the hard times, III the
lumber ron coal, and oil counties, have not taken
place ard the party is nearly as solid as 1t eyer was
In Western Pennsylvania il Is not as strong as Ill
1872 but it is in much better shape than IN lS"l'
Allegheny County, which gave Democratic ma
iority of 1900 last Fall will be carried by the
Republicans this year by fully 1000 majority.
They will also make large though not so heavy
gains in Erie, Lawrence, Crawford, VenangO,
Beaver-in short, in nearly every county west
of the mountains where they lost so sur
prisingy last year. The anthracite counties viii
vote about as they did in 1874, except Schuylkll,
where the republicans will gain. There will be no
important changes in the iron DISTRICTS and the 1in-
Der region does not bold out any hope TO the Demo-
Gratis In all the heavy Republican counties, Hart
ranft will gam largely Olmsteads maJorities last
year.
Foyr,h: Hartranft will be elected by a small ma
jority, probably about 10000. The Prohibition
faction will steal away 10000 or 900 votes from
him. but not enough to defeat him. If the appre
hended frauds are perpetraed in Philadelphia in the
interest of the Republican Ring candidates for local
offices Hartranft's majority may be run up TO To-
600, or even 10000.
FYfh; The contest on the State Treasurersip will
he n close one and the result will depend on the
size of Hartranfts majority. Piolet will probably
run 10 600 ahead of PerShing which will, OF course
throw Rawle that many votes behind Hartranft, and
expose him to the possibility of defeat. The cleo
ton of artrdnft and the defeat of Rawle is result
desired by most independent voters, because the
overthrow of Pershng is the final overthrow of the
imitation theory, which he represents and the sue
cess of Pollet is blow at the Ring, and an in-
portant point gained for the cause of Reform. The
effect on national politics, too viii be good-ncther
corrupt Republicans nOrinfaton Democrats will de-
rive any comfort from it.