The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1875-02-08

army, would have crossed the EbrO and nave
reached the capital. IL would have been too late
to set up Don Alfonso, and Don Carlos would have
been hailed as q deliverer.
ALFONSO THE REPRESENTATIVE OF FIXED SYSTEM.
With Don Alfonso once placed upon the throne
the position IL very different. Don Alfonso has
very different title to power from that which Ser
rano had. Serrano's only title to rule his sup
posed power TO crush Car'ism and make the laws
obeyed This title Don Carlos had successfully dis
puted. Don A!onso's title to govern Is that OF
legal ana lawful king. The monarchical tradition
is all powerful in Spain. and the new King has this
on his side. II he cannot put down the insurrec-
ton 80 much the worse for the county, 1t Is o
great misfortune, out 1t Is not. the Kings fault
He Is not responsible for IT, Unlike Serrano. Don
Alfonso can, II beaten before Bstella, commence
again and again. He can afford to be beaten
where Serrano could not.
''rHR CARLIsTs CANNOT KEEP UP THE WAR;"
In spite OF what Don Carlos said to the contrary
In the interview had with him. Alfonso can hem
the Basque provinces In, act on the defensive ana
simply tire them out The Carists cannot keep
up the war forever; IL already weighs heavily
upon them, and II they have not murmured yet 1t
Is because they saw that Serrano's government
was toItering, and they hoped that Don Carlos
would succeed him. Up TO The present Don Carlos
was victorious as long as he simply held his own.
Now the positions are reversed, and he Is obliged
to take the offensive; to cross the Ebro; to march
upon Madrid. This do NOT think be will ever be
able to DO, because he will have to overcome
armies three times as strong numerically as his
own. 1t will become simple question OF endur-
ance, In which the weaker party must be eventu-
ally tired out. Don Carlos, who had arrived almost
to the very steps OF the throne has now probably
lost 1t forever.
IS ALFONso's DYNASTY POPULARp
do not, however, think this complete turn Of
the wheel OF fortune is in the least owing to the
popularity OF the young King Alfonso. The son Of
his mother hardly can expect to be popular until
he earns his popularity. Nor do think 1t is be-
cause his government will be q very strong
one, or that the constitutional monarchy
in Spain win possess any peculiar prop
erty or merit that will enable It to
suppress insurrecton Or establish order. But
possession is said to be nine points in law,
and Don Alfonso's strength as compared to Don
Carles', is simple question OF possession. II Don
Carlos were placed upon the throne he would be
stronger than Don Alfonso. will 60 further and
say that Don Carlos is more loved OF the Spanish
people than Don Alfonso, ana that had the hal
dozen generals who made the pronuncamento for
Don Alfonso declared instead lor Don Carlos he
would have been received with greater enthusi-
asm than the present King.
The truth Is the people are so tired OF these per-
perual revolutions and changes that they win hail
with Joy any government that promises the one
requislte-w1thout which the best government is
only q curse-that Of stability. They would accept
the father Of curses himself providing they
thought they could Keep him when they had him.
Either Don Carlos or Don Alfonso would be con-
sldered Q legal king, no matter how irregular or
illegal the means used to reach the throne, be-
cause they both may be regarded as heirs TO the
crown, ana this Is why Amadeo, although legally
sanctioned by the Spanish people-if elections
held under such circumstances could sanction any
thinR-was never really regarded as q legal
king. Don Alfonso, therefore, gives promise Of
stabiIity-frst, because he Is legal king; second,
because he Is in possession OF the throne; third,
because he has no faults to answer Tor as yet and
fourth, all OF these things combined give him one
more element OF strength, lnasmuch as they make
the people and the world believe In him. Don
Carlos, had ne reached the throne, would have
had all Of these things In his favor and some thing
more-a strong head ana an iron hand, that
would have put stop to pr0nunciamentos for
nifty years 10 come.
HOW WILL cARLIsM END?
It has been generally supposed that the Carlists.
as soon as they heard OF the proclamation OF Don
Alfonso, would imm ediately disoaad and dispense,
and that there would not be single Carlst under
arms q month afterward. This Is a very great
mistake. The proclaimine OF Don Alfonso has
been greeted everywhere throughout the Carst
country with the greatest Indifference, and the
truth Is the people DO not perceive the slightest
difference between the new and old order of things
nor will they for months to come. II Is
supposed, TOO, that there viii be q
great many defections among the Carlst
chiefs, that many OF them are Alfonslsts
at heart that many more are accessible to bribery,
and that, IN snort, Don Carlos win soon see him.
self abandoned by his best officers.S With the ex
ception OF few adventurers, who have no really
important commands, there will be no defections
among the Carst chiefs. The men who have es-
p0used the cause OF Don Carlos are men who fight
upon principle ana without the slightest regard
to the chances OF success. The prospect OF uln-
mate victory or defeat does not have the least in
nuence on the question OF continuing the struggle
as long 1t Is possible continue II. and 1t must
be confessed that there something to be admin ed
in this stern adhesion to principles in the face OF
certain defeat But am afraid
THE CAUSE Is LOST
all the same. Whatever the good win OF the re-
vOted provinces, 1t win be impossible for them to
continue the struggle very long, even though
their enemies be unable TO drive them from their
almost impregnable positions. 1t Is money, the
snews OF war, that will fail them in the end. The
war may continue year or eighteen months yet,
but II at the end OF that time the people find they
are making no progress. that they are no nearer
Madrid than they were before, that the govern.
menr OF Alfonso is growing stronger every day
and striking Its roots into the country-whch Is
perfectly possible without crushing Carlism-they
will undoubtedly give up the struggle In despair,
but nog till then.
ONE CHANCE LEFT.
In spite OF this dark view OF the Carst pros
poets 1t must be confessed that they have chance
or two STILL and 1t is only fair that should put
In the most favorable light. Don Carlos himself
maintains, with some show OF reason that the
same men who overthrow Isabella, who murdered
Prm, who made Amadeus government impossi.
Bile, who overthrow the Republic and, finally Ser
rano, will likewise overthrow Don Alfonso. There
is a good deal Of ingenuity IN this argum ent ana
ted with tho man .xho 20