New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1875-10-23
THE HARD TIMES.

/
tryi At the outset, before attempting to an
| swer the question, two things must be consid-
cred. In the first place it is desirable to know
what is the average healthy condition not only
of business but of the entire population. When
from any cause prices of things in general are
rapidly rising the entire business cOmmu-
nifty and the holders of property OF all
kinds fancy they are growing rich. They
fashion their expenditures and transac-
tons of every kind according to thcir sup
posed increased wealth. Hence there is a
strong demand for labor and prosperity APP
pears to be universally diffused. But this pros
perity is in great part imaginary. 1t does not
represent the average state of things. FROM
its very nature it cannot last. Calling every
thing in the country worth twice as many dol
lars Us it used to be adds to the wealth OF no
one. But fluctuations in the money value OF
property and goods are attended with this IN
convenience, that those who are debtors or
creditors and have promised to pay or to
receive fixed sums of money are liable to
serious changes i'm their worldly estate.
A great many things affect prices besides
the quantity of money which happens to be
in existence. Moreover in individual cases 1T
X
particular thing which adds to the load OF the
debtor or relieves him. For example, man
borrows money and invests in real estate
The price of real estate is then what concerns
him. If there has been Over-speculation III
that article and he is one of those who buy
when the price il at the very highest, he Is
ruined, and he has no one but himself to
blame In the same way those who at the
last moment enter into the manufacturing
business run the risk of the markets becom-
ing glutted by which all in the business
are deprived for time OF their usual
profits, even if they are lucky enough To es-
cape serious losses. In coming to an OPINION
as to the condition of the whole population OF
the United States we must take all articles
into the account We find one class of art-
clcs, of immense Importance. which has not
within the last three years-ths takes us back
| to year before the panic-sustalned any serl-
Gus fall We refer to wheat, corn, rye, oats,
and barley. BY comparing the wholesale prices
of these articles at milwaukee, in the first week
of October we find that No. 2 wheat was
quoted at 81 13ia per bushel in 1872, 81 II
in 1878, 03I4 cents in 1874. and 81 O9is
in 1875. Corn was worth "a cents
bushe in 1872. 40 cents in 1873.
Slla cents in 1874. and 80 cents III
1875. Oats were % cents bshci in 1872,
33ia cents in 1873, 40 cents in 1874, and 81
cents in 1875. Rye 81 cents bushel III
1872, GIL cents in 1873, S7i2 cents in 1874,
and 73 cents in 1875. Barley was 66i2 cents
bushel in 1872, 81 40 in 1878, 81 10 i'll
! 1874, and 81 OLE in 1875. Comparing the
prices of 1872 with those of 1875, and con-
side..ay t,nat the harvest of 1875, taking all
products together, is n good one and remem-
herring that dry goods, groceries, labor, ana
many other things which the farmer has to
buy are cheaper than they were three years ago,
have the farmers at this time any good reason
for thinking that they are worse oil than they
were in 1872 From this brief mention OF
prominent facts, and from the further circum-
stances mentioned in our columns day or
two ago. that the aggregate quantities OF tea,
coffee and sugar imported into the United
States show no falling off, we judge that the
hard times. though a severe visitation Oh GER
tain classes of the population, are scarcely felt
at all by Others, while by large numbers the
! fall in the money prices of their possessions
over which they grievc is just as fictitious as
the previous rise, leaving them worth ms much
a. ever in real value.
The hard times have now lasted two full
years The extreme point of depression may
ar NAV not have hem reached. There is no
infallili5 lest. Former experience teaches that
the process of recovery is not a rapid one, but
in the nature of things its commencement can
not be long delayed. England il the country
which most nearly resembles the United States
in its methods of business and its banking
system. In England during The last ninety
wears there have been saycn OF eight periods
of strongly marked depression III business,
such rs THAT through which We are pass
ing In no case however. has the extreme i'll
action lasted three full years. BY the end OF
the third year the exports and imports. the
revenues of the Government, and the rate
of interest have invariably begun TO
mark some Improvement. All the accepted
authorities on the subject OF commercial crises
have treated them a. reactions following an
excess of speculation. Speculation carries the
prices of hOuscs and lots, goods bonds, rail
road stocks or other commodities, to a level
at which they cannot be sustained and the re-
sulting fall is in proportion to the extent of
the previous speculations and the abuses of
credit by which they have been attended. An
abuse of credit takes place where, for instance,
IA farmer parts with his grain for worthless rail-
road mortgage or other security, or where he is
the victim Of bad debts. Increasing the guam
tity of money, as the infiationists would do if
they could. would not revive confidence, but
have the opposite effect. Unless done on a
scale TO fill the minds Of sensible men with
apprehcnsions of reputation, it is not likely
that it would Immediately raise the price of
any article, while every prudent creditor would