New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1875-12-31
WHAT PARTIES MUST DO.

Democrats cannot elect the next President
without NewYOrk. Republicans can. THOSE
two facts supply the key of the next election.
The Democrats must nominate a candidate,
and frame platform, and put their party INTO
q position that can secure NcwYork Other
wise they are whipped before the fight begins.
But the Republicans can still make u desperate
struggle, with q possibility of success, even
though tho probabilities in this State should
be against them.
The estimate published on Thursday from n
Democratic Congressman of national repu'a-
ton contained some mistakes and especially
this, that it supposed that the Democrats
having the votes of all the old Slave States
except South Carolina, could elect President
with only fifty more electoral votes, whereas
they would then have only Isl, and lo3 VIII
be needed to elect. Oregon, with New ork,
Indiana, and the Southern States, would not
quite suffice; it would give them only lS4
votes. But it was probably presumed that
any influence sufficing to secure New
York would also secure Connecticut OF
New-Jersey. The essential accuracy OF
the estimate is undeniable. The Democrats
can count with almost absolute certainty, upon
the Republicans, if they nominate candidate
who unites the party, can count VIII equai
certainty upon tie vote of South Carolina ana
all the former nOn-slaveh0lding States except
New-York, Connecticut, Ncw-JerSey, indiana,
California, and Oregon. The Democrats theh
need 81 more electoral votes out OF the "a
considered dcbatabe. The Republicans, how
ever, need only 81, and can lose New-loTk'
New-Jersey, and Connecticut, or New YORK.
Indiana, and Oregon, and still elect the PrcSi-
dent The Democrats cannot possibly get Oh
of the "a dobatable votes, without the 80 Oh
New-York, and must therefore carry this State
or be beaten.
This estimate, it is obvious, would DO en-
TREY worthless if Grant should be renomi-
mated. He could not carry Wisconsin, i'll which
the Republican majority in November was less
than 900; he could not carry either Ohio or
Massachusetts,, in which the Republican ma
iority WAS then only about 5000, and 1t Is
quite likely that he would he beaten III New
Hampshire, Minnesota, and Illinois. Almost
any Democrat can probably be elected against
Grant, if the Republicans should be so insane
rs to nominate him. Against any Republican
peculiarly representing Grantism, the Demo-
Gratis would be morally certain to carry not
only New-York and the other doubtful States,
but Wisconsin, Ohio, and New-Hampshire.
But If the Republicans nominate candidate
who fairly satisfies the reform element OF the
party, New-York becomes absolutely necessary
to Democratic but not to Republican success.
such estimates are of no value except as
they help the wiser and better men OF party
to shape its action. If the purest and best
Democrats prevail in Convention, as they have
prevailed in tho organization OF the House,
there will be a possibility of Democratic sue
cess. for there will be possibility of their
CARRYING this State. If the Republicans, on
the other hand, nominate candidate VINO
satisfies the best and purest element of that
party, they will not only hold the States now
counted as Republican, but Will make 1t I'M
possible for the Democrats to succeed except
with candidate at least equally satisfactory
TO the people of this and other debatabie
States. Democratic Convention VIII be
crazy if it does not take care TO secure the
vote of this State Republican Convention
Will be crazy if it does not take care to secure
the confidence and support Of the independent
voters
Thus viewed, the situation does not seem to
us to Justify the gloomy anticipations which
some worthy citizens entertain. 1t is not very
likely that the Republican and Democratic Con-
yeptions Will both be controlled by madmcn,
especially if the latter should meet first. Re-
pubicans must realize, when they come to look
each other in the face, that delegates from
fifteen States which cannot give the candidate
a single electoral vote have no right to force
Grant upon the party to its destruction. Dem
ocrats must realize, when they look at the
facts candidly, that they have no chance OF
success except by uncOmpromising admnistra-
tive reform, and unwavering fidelity to the ma
tional honor