New-York tribune., 1875-10-08

REASONS FOR EXPECTING Z0,OOO MAJORITY FOX
HAYEs-THK CHANGE OF SENTIMENT IN IMPORT
ANT LoCALTIEs-RETURN 10 THR REPUBLICANS
OF THE GERMAN VOTE.
lBY TELEGRAPH FROM A STAFF CORRESPONDENT OF The
TRIBUSEl
CINCINNATI, Oct. I'm all recent political cam
paigns in Ohio, the City of Cincinnati and the
County Of Hamilton in which it lies have been
hotly contested territory. As rule, the vote OF
Hamilton County has settled the result in the State
Whenever the Democrats have been able to add the
solid German vote 10 the solid Irish vote, which is
always theirs they have carried the County; ana
whenever the Republicans have secured a consider
able number of Germans to act with them, they nave
been victorious. Two years ago, in the Allen-Noyes
campaign. Aliens plurality was less than 500 III the
County almost his exact plurality in the State. The
Liberal Republican candidate, Collins, goo over
4, 800 votes, four-ffths of which were gwen by
former Republicans Last FALL the Republicans
drove away the whole body of their German
friends, by putting temperance plank III
their State platform, and In consequence
lost Hamilton County by nearly 6ooo'
The Germans acted solidly with the Democrats III
the Mayoralty contest last Spring ana elected
Johnston by $500 majority. Now, nearly all the
old Republican Germans, who were Liberals III
1872 and 1873 and Democrats under protest III
1874 have returned TO their former allegiance ana
are supporting Hayes on the money question, Ike
their brethren in CuyahOga County; and TINS fact
gives solid ground for expecting Republican TIL
umph here If Hayes carries Hamilton, his success
in the State will be certain.
Both parties seem 10 understand this and are
stranng every nerve here. Not night passes
without political meeting Indeed, there are often
half dozen on the same night, in different parts OF
the city, and one can hardly 90 upon the principal
streets in the afternoon without enconnt"ring
brass band in huge six-horse vehicle, whose
placarded sides advertise the time and place OF one
of these gatherings. The Republican leaders say
the only thing they fear is, that Mayor Johnstohs
police Will repeat the frauds which it Is alleged
they committed last Spring. Every possible means
will be taken to guard against this. The Mayor
gives assurances that he will aid in securing fair
election but such assurances are naturally dis
trusted by his opponents.
The same confidence of victory observed IN other
parts of the state appears to animate Republicans
and Democrats alike here, and, as elsewhere, the
former give reasons for their faith in the shape of
tangible facts and figures. while the latter talk IN
a large aud general way, Of the tremendous gains
they are making on the currency question az II hall
the Republican party were crazy for more green
backs
Mr. Murat Halsead of The Commercial, always an
excellent authority on Ohio politics predicts Hayess
election by d" a good round majority" On the other
hand, half "A dozen Democratic editors and poll
ticiams whom have met today insist that Allen VIII
have from 10000 10 10000 majority. 1t is reas-
surng to sec that they have come down from the
30 600 mark of Il month ago. One fact that IL much
more significant than the boasttu talk OF the Demo
Gratis is that the betting Allen has ceased. sport
ing men who gave large odds on him few weeks
ago have shifted danger in the air and are trying to
hedge their bets. The recent town election IN Find
Law is Il straw often referred 10 by Repubhcans as
one reason for their confidence of victory. Last
Spring Fndlay was Democratic by 80 majority
Last week an election for Clerk was held to fill IA
vacancy. test contest was made on the State
issue and the Republicans won by l3l. Another
straw is the poll of Ross County, Aliens home made
lately by TIE Republicans, which shows that he
will lose POO OIL his vote of 1873.
An outsider looking over the field casually OF care
fully cannot help concluding that all the signs point
10 tho election of Hayes. aud yet he will be deferred
from vcnturing any definite probationary the appa-
rent fact that there is an uncertain quantity in the
canvass - the Republican initiation vote, whose
weight and influence the result cannot be deter
mined Here are some figures obtained from a for
mer Liberal, that appear TO be be fully justified by
ha Drcsrnt DTOSDects: