The herald and mail. [volume] (Columbia, Tenn.) 1873-188?, 1875-02-12
The Consumption OF American Cotton


Before looking to other countries we
may consider how far the American
crop can supply the worlds consump-
tion OF American cotton. The careful
and searching scrutiny made of the
C, assumption last October, leads us TO
believe the invisible stock was then un-
derrated, and that the quantity of
American cotton actually consumed out
OF the last crop did not exceed &, 900, 900
bales, If it reached that figure. Practi-
cally the last crop yielded q surplus of
300, 900 bales beyond the worlds con-
sumption. The previous one yielded a
surplus of 200,00O and we venture to
say that if the presen. crop reaches four
and q quarter millions, it will yield a
surplus of 250,0 900 bales, for we do not
think that the consuming power Of the
world will exceed four millions the
present season. In England the con.
sumption will be stationary; on the
continent it will increase a little; in
America it will, perhaps, be rather less,
for trade is exceedingly bad there, and
the mills are still working a good deal
of short time.
The result OF three crops in America
will, therefore, be to add about $50, 900
bales to the quantity of American cotton
remaining in stock at the end of this
season, as compared with the famine
supply held at the end of the short crop
of 1871-72. Against this, however, we
have to put large reduction in the
stocks of East India cotton. Nobody
can doubt that we have sufficient sup
ply of American cotton the coming year,
with crop exceeding 4, 900, 600, aud a
superabundant supply if it exceeds
1850, 600. The Indian supply has
hitherto been the balance wheel of our
market. A big American crop and low
prices used to cut off 50 much from the
East that the pendulum swung round
and our apparent surplus soon disap-
peared. 1t seems, however, that lower
prices than we had once supposed will
bring us the full weight of the Indian
crop. At the present moment there is
no sign of smaller supply from India
next year, the crops in western India
are promising remarkably we'll. The
Oomrawuttee crop is estimated at 10
per cent. larger than last. The Broach
and Dhollerah are expected to be very
eCod if no mischief befall them the next
two months, and the Dharwar crop is
moderately we'll spoken of. The Ben
gal crop is also pretty good, whereas it
was q failure last year. We think India
will supply as much cotton in 1875 as
in 1874, unless prices fall very low in
deed. Egypt does not promise we'll,
the season was not favorable, and esti- |
mates of decrease vary from 10 to 90
per cent, say $4,000 to 100000 bales.
The Brazils are expected to give the
same as last year.
1t appears, therefore, that our cotton
supply, es a whole. promises to be fully |
equal to the consumption of the world, |
and there does not appear to be room
for violent fluctuations in prices.
The most trying period of our market |
will be the spring months q heavy i'm
port will arrive continuously till mid
summer, the American cotton now due |
loses considerably, and it will need
strong accounts from America to sus-
tain our market in the face of this. Yet |
it is quite possible that if receipts fell
off unusually fast in the spring, we
might see such vigorous buying on the
part of the trade as to cause a smart ad-
vance, in spite of the large report. On
the other hand, it is equally on the
cards that such large receipts and weak
ness in America Will cause the import
to be pressed on our market and lead to
very low prices for a time. This next
two or three months will probably en-
able us to know with tolerable certainty
what will be the lowest dip of the sea-
son, or whether it is already past
London Circular.