, 1875-08-25
NO. 90.

Prussia, neither Prince Bismarck nor his
master have forgotten 194S. A Republic
must have a head, and although the
German Government can accept M. Theirs,
and has worked with him placably enough,
it is not certain that it has abandoned its
resolution not to accept NJ. Gambetta.
Besides, a change in the present occupa-
ton of the Presidency would not neceSsa-
rily restore NJ. THEIRS. His chance would
be the best, but the majority still hesitates
about the dissolution to which he is
pledged, and might, in a moment of fear
or annoyance, elect the Duke d'Aumale,
an election which would create as much
CONSERVATION in Berlin as that of Gambettd
himself. The Duke is a soldier, and an
ambitious one, and we'll aware that q
pitched battle clearly won might enable
him to found a throne. Prince Bismarck,
therefore, may, on the whole, prefer that
the Republic should not be real, that the
Constitution should be postponed, and
that any change in the French Govern
ment, more especially any change which
involved the resignation of the Due
Decazes, who holds that France must
wait to regain Der strength and obtain
some sure alliance, should, so tar as
practicable, be resisted. 1t that is the
case, Marshal MacMahon and his Cabinet
already alarmed by the increasing certain
ty that the result of the general election
will be a Liberal Assembly, would, we
may be assured, be subjected to q gentle
pressure to move in the direction to which
they incline, aud when the inclination
exists, pressure need not be severe to
secure very considerable momentum. If
Germany expresses distrust of the elections,
the Cabinet which distrusts them also,
may think that in securing the power to
arrest or forward them at discretion it is
performing a patriotic act, as we'll one
agreeable to itself. If we are not mis-
taken, it is this which the French
correspondent of the Times, in his over
guarded letter of Wednesday, intended
to tell his readers, and certainly this
explanation would help to make many
occurrences clear which are now almost
inexplicable. a.E @ass
We may be asked by what method
Prince Bismarck, even if he takes a strong
view Of French politics, could bring bis
influence to bear upon the Cabinet. lie
could not declare war because Marshal
MacMahon resigned, or because the
Assembly voted a dissolution, or because
NJ. Buffet gave place to some Other
Premier. That is not possible, of course.I
but q victorious power has other and
more eficacious means Of making its
annoyance disagreeable. 1t can very
easily make it understood that certain;
persons are unacceptable, so unacceptable.
that if they rise to the. head Of affairs
negotiations will be unsatisfactory
remonstrances upon other subjects will
become sharp, and rumours of " strained
relations will get abroad. Under many
circumstances such treatment might
merely ~irritate, but when a Government
above all things requires time, when its
first object is to avoid collision till tits
able to assert its own independence,
and its second to avert diplomatic snubs.
any course likely to rirritate its enemy u,
sure to be accepted with extrerne
reluctance. Prince Bismarck Acannoss
represent that the new Assembly might,
be dangerous to Germany, or that the old
one ought, in the interest Of orderr t. fbe
dissolved but he can thwartq French
diplomacy in half the capitals of Europe
can seize every foolish speech Ola bishop
or indiscreet article bysan editor insaacity.
under the state of seige as an occasion tor