, 1875-03-09

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THE spRIN0 TRADE.
It socn1s to bo safo ut Inst 10 predict n con.
e,nl breakup in tho congcalol condition of |
things Which M unprecctlcntclty long winter |
hna brought lis. Evon tho resources Of "oli
Probabilities for falling thermometers ar-
pear to bo exhausted. Thoro Is ovoty rcason-
nbo probability for rcatljastmons Of tho
scasons, with fnir chance for srring md
with spring We tnay anticipate n revival Of
trade, considerably i'll nlvnnco Of anything
VIC 1nvo Ind slnco tho panio. Tile long and
trying wintor soason is n sort Of meteoroiog-
ieal counterpart Of tho commercial panic
which preceded 1t by some month";. Dusl-
ness circles wero III n fair why 10 recover
from tho DISTRESS OF the monetary criaiB
when tie weather stringency caulo on, and
everything. material closed up M Of
fectually aa the banks OF The fal1 Of
1879. The relief from tho weather pnnio
of ~ promises to DO more pronounced
an1 punctttal than the reliot from tho money
panic Of -. We may uow expect kind Of
general revival from Nil sorts Of deprossion,-
reaction TINT will cover bad weather, and
shrinkaga of values, mud loss Of confidence,
an1 general physical, mental, co,nr,orcial,
and gocial decentralization. Al tho homo pco-
rlo who have been frozen up and kept in
| doors for mouths greet tilo spring sunlight
| with b,oyane glatlness, mud crowd tho sloppy
| sidewalks with reckless Indifference to tho
| slush, 80 the business peoplcsswilt reach out
aftor u,oir long aud enforced rest with now
zost and reinforced energies. THUS We mny
predict double reaction, from tho COM
| tncrcial crisis, and another from tie weather
panic.
Perhaps tho most striking Illustration Of
| tho revival in trade mny bo found III tie sud-
tlen aud striking increase Of advertising
| which might ]ave been noticed III tho Inst
! Sunday issue Of The TRIBUNE, md which
| may DO regarded rs good Thermometer Of
business feeling or n preliminary announce-
nlcnt Of better things to como. It WIS tic
| first formal declaration Of tho business COM
munity that tho dull times arc beginning to
DO oyer,-a sort Of rainbow to herald tho
passing AWAY Of tho storm. Contompornne-
ously with this sign comes intelligence from
otler cities Of tho same hopeful feelings.
The Now York jobbera aud wholesale
merchants and manufacturers nro reported
ns anticipating aud preparing for n
l.rgcr business than usual, extend
ing to dry-goods, carpets, furniture,
breadatufFs, pork, md produce of all kinds.
It is generally regarded MS henlthy sign that
the spectators, scorcted or warned by tho
experience Of eighteen months ogo, have
generally drawn out and left the important
branches of trndo to tho houses regularly Or
ganized to deal with them and doing their
business OH sound mid substantial basis.
This is tho reason why tho feeling Of uncor-
tainty and apprehension has disappeared,
and very widespread confidence Inns taken
its place.
The history OF panics fully justified tho
enthusiastic predictions TINT are now 1nado
on all sides rs to a general revival Of business
this spring. It required nbout eighteen
months after tho panic Of 1857 to touch
bottom, reaci, "hard pan," aud settle md
adjust losses so rs to sot commercial afIairs in
process Of revival. It was necessary then
NJ 1t has been recently to givo the real
estate md other spoculators an opportunity
for saving what they could, making such Eac-
riiiccs as were unavoidable, and going
through tho Clcaring House, SO to speak.
Tho bulk of this sort of business is over.
Nearly all tho bellows TINT wcro fitted to COL
lapse, md nil tho kites that wore destined to
fill, hayo collapsed and fallen. Some man
! havo bean obliged to givc way altogether +;
others have surrendered q part Of their sup.
posed but fictitious wealth, md savcd part.
J But pretty much all tho vacant rlaocs l,ayo
been filled, nearly a1l tho books liavo been
l}atanccd settlements made and losses GU.
tered up, and those who lavo not beon swept
away entirely nre in condition to 60 ahead
again On new and soundor footing. The
panic was the. inevitable consequence Of au
r inflated speculation and unnatural prosper;
ity, growing out Of the Elusive profits d
, tho Civil War, when the destruction
Of property was actually mado tt
figure up an increase Of wealtl
by reason of tho falsc valuation pu
7 npon Governmental and individual certia
catcs Of indebtedness. Wo felt at ono blop
: the accumulated disasters Of seycral years
t 1t Is not unnatural that tho shock was sever
8 ono, and tho recovery slow.
0 Ono Of tho Trustworthy signs of m usunl
! ly rapid nnl strong revival Of business thi
0 spring Is tho excellent condition Of th
. farmer+class. Tho last yoar f,,rnisAcd
: strong contrast with tue preceding. Til
r war against tho railroads bad Its effect in
very general and important reduction in ratea
md q consequent increase Of prices Tor th
O producers. The experience Of tho year be
4 fora had n1so made marked reduction In til
q production Of those articles, tho supply 0
y which lad notably exceeded tho demand. !
j. natural consequence Of these two circum
!. stapces was all improvement in priccs
}. tho great benefit Of which wa
o enjoyed by tho agricultural c'asHcs
;. mud not by tho mitlillemen. The farmors
}, therefore, feel botter OF this spring than the
Ii l'ayo at any tino within two years, md tit
), prospect for good market and fair price
It this ycar is promising ono. Another sig
Ir Of renewed confidence is to bo found in I'll
= greater 1iberality Of tho bankers and capita
II lists with money to loan. Tor q year succeed
o lug tho panio, the bankers preferred to keo
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