New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1874-09-30
BUTLER'S PROSPECTS.
THE OPPOSITION NOT UNITED.


IRON OCCASIONAL CORRESPONDENT OF THE TRIDUSE'i
SALEM, Mass, Sept. s2.-The political situa-
ton In tho With Congressional District OF the ola Bay
State, Familiarity known ss the Essex District' grows
moro and more Interesting as the General goes on
swinging round the circle and the opposing candidaes
are working 20 present an unbroken front TO Him. Tue
voters nc Essex SEQ that the eyes OF the country are
turned toward Them in hopes that they have at last re-
allied the national Importance which attaches W tho
political defeat OF Butler. Killed the caucus, he Is
killed In the Conventions losing the nomination ne loses
tho district, and death in the district IS the
political shelving of the Observation-Disclosures
reformer This widespread present attention TO a
Congressional District natural and deserved Tor out
of tho chaos of supposon surmse and chance at last
have come political something's Of defnite shape IL Is
an undenable and undoubted fact that OF the 12OO re
publican voters OF the district. tho majority are anu
Butler men, and opposed TO Butlesm aud It's exponehs
in any shape. But they are not united Yet the proA-
unity Of the election makes the consequent necessity
and vital Importance OF the most earnest unity OF action
and that at once-only too apparent to the somewhat
Striking leaders of the Butler opposition who, puzzled
and bewdered by the divisions Of the party ana tne
candidates, stand st allowing the first eaucuses " ~
by default This ia Of course In the smaller Out no TESS
important districts And such indeesl0n Is Dul hatua
in view OF the claims and positions OF the cahndateS'
who are now three In number, Gen. VIM CogSwei. Gen.
T..
CANDIDATES OF THE OPPOSITION.
In passing to consider the claims OF the anti-Butier
candidates for support their chances for election
no mention Is necessary of he records OF the men or
their views on the OF the because II the end
10 he gained in this is the defeat OF Butler tne
Republicans the district must unite on the only man
that be successfully run, and he Is certainly "en
Cogswe. He is unQuesonaby the strongest man ol Tue
opposition, no is determined to run IL ID wen "
examine the circumstances which make MIN inc ony
available candidate. Having enerGeticaiiy worked
since April last having nothing TO lOse ana oelhg tue
first man who dared TO stand up against Butter III
determined manner, will not withdraw In favor OF
any man. Judge Carter OF Haverhl and COL stone OF
Newburyport understood 10 be candidates IN ther
own districts merely to defeat Butler in those districts
carrying them for Cogswe by securing delega ties faV
orable to themselves This they can successfully DO
Judge Carrier does not ask the support OF
the district for Congress, by his own unquall
fed admission, but will seek support to favor
Cogswell. Col. Stone by his own admission VIII
run against Butler II Cogswe not interfered with by
Phillips In the district where his strength lies. Gen.
Cogswell first the field, and has by far the larger
portion OF the pledged strength OF the genuine antBut
Ter element well as good following IN the ranks OF
the Butler party of previous years. Mr. Phillips must
have been deluded by his friends who are IN part oppo
nents Of Cogswel by Butler who have told him
that he possessed great strength the district know
ing full well when they spoke that the party, small as
49, held the balance Of power and governed the eeo-
ton. and II they by their representations induced ME-
Phillips to run, they elected Mr.. Butler For ilustra-
tion suppose that ward poled 2l0 votes With Butter
and Cogswell in the field alone the vote would proDaDy
stand Butler, 1OO Cogswell, no. With Phillips as can
ddate Cogswel would probably receive 90 votes, and
Phillips 90 thus giving the election away. This is fair
average in the wards and towns where Phillips
claims his strongest support. Therefore, on
Mr. Phips's action depends the direction OF
the canvass. Mr.. Phillips has said on more
than one occasion, and it has been spread by the
newspapers that he had interest In the campaign
more than to defeat his welknown enemy, and that he
was ready to make any personal sacrifice as part and
parcel Of his lifelong opposition TO the great nhatonst
lie has also openly admitted that to run in the district
would be to give Salem, Marblehead. Danvers, North
Andover, and few other places to Butler.
PROBABLE COMPOSITION OF THE CONVENTION.
The District Convention will meet either IN Lyceum
Hail. Salem, or Market Hall, Newburyport at the call
OF the District Committee. Richard Plummer OF New
buryport is the chairman OF that committee the major
ity OF whom Butler men, and therefore the Con-
venon will be called to suit the Butler interests. 1t
will not be called before the State Convention Oct T. 1t
must be called within a week OF that time, and In all
probability 1t will be held the 10th Of next month
hundred and twelve delegates entitled to seats
the usual basis OF representation, distributed as fol-
lows:
Amesbury, 8; Beverly, S; Bedford 2; Bradford.
2; Danvers, 4; Essex, a. Georgetown. a. Gloucester,
IA; Groyeland, Hamilton, 1; Hayer, II; Ipswich, 8;
Lyunfeld, Manchester Marbehead, 81 Middleton. l.
Newbury, 2; Newburyport, 49, North Andover, Pea
body, A Rockport 8; Rowley Salem, IT. Salisbury, 81
T0ps1eld, 2; Wenham, 2; and West Newbury, 2; total
ia or these delegates careful canvass, liberal In its
allotment to the opposition has been made That show
Ing gave Amesbury, Bradford, Danvers, Hamilton,
~, A,.a
Peabody, Rockpor Salem, Salisbury, Topsheld Wenham
to the Butler candidate. These places would send
81 delegates. Newburyport, West Newbury, and New
bury might safely be counted for Stone (Cogswel)
sending TO- Haverhi and Gloucester half Of each dele
cation, that Is Is for Cogswel total Of go Then
Boxford, Georgetown. Groveand, Lynnfeld, and Row.
ley must be cassed uncertain, making a total of
uncertain. This leaves to Butler, Beverly Essex, and
Ipswich and half Of Gloucester and Haverhll-a total
OF %. This estimate may greatly astonish many Of
those Who supposng that Buffers strength can never
be broken make effort but simply take 1T for granted
that Butler will be elected because he always has
been-which does not necessarily follow.
THE QUESTION OF A BOLT
After the Convention, Who'll one may indeed ask.
Butler will capture the Convention II he by Butler
ism and II he does so, is not therefore the peoples
choice or desire. The question then arises of the
bIlity OF Republican bolt, coalition candidate
with the Democrats on purely ant-Butler basis The
former Is naturally distasteful to many, aud
there arc those the antButer ranks who prefer the
regular nominee. matter how bad, TO bolter. There
fore will probably be adopted unless there is such
decided showing Of strength to justify such
by certain victory. The coalition plan is not cOnsid
cred wise because naturally the disaected Repub
leans would have TO take Democrat, whose election
might change the whole political complexion Of the
House. There is no independent candidate whis
pered. True Dr. Lorng might receive fair Democratic
support he the man. but for the purposes Of certain
election in November, Democrat polling his whole
party strength would be Of necessity required And II
Judge Otis p Lord accepted the nomination, which 1t