Nashville union and American. [volume] (Nashville, Tenn.) 1868-1875, 1874-09-16
THE COTTON CROP.
Factors and Planters Estimates
of Southern Stock.
Predictions and Counter Predic-
tons of the Extent of
the Growing Crop.
New York World.

Upon few ordinary every day sub
jects is it so difficult to obtain a fair
statement of simple facts, untinged by
the coloring Of personal interest, as
upon the probable aggregate amount
of a forthcoming cotton crop. The
difficulty arises from various causes.
a large class of persons talk and esti-
mate fuently enough upon the subject,
who have little or no personal knowl-
edge upon which to base either. All
through the South the village post
master, the railway station agent, and
the local cotton factor have their cor
respondents IN the great markets of
the North and East with whom their
reports have influence, and to whose
order they are perhaps not ~unfrequent-
ly made. There Is, too, a natural and
inherent diversity of interest between
the cotton planter and the cotton mer-
chant and consumer. The fOrmerquite
naturally finds it to his advantage
to underestimate the probable crop
and oyer estimate the chances of mis-
fortune, as this tends to produce high
prices and consequent profit; while the
latter are as prone 20 reverse this order
Of things, oy erestimating the crop and
Understanding the probable price to
suit their requirements IN a business
point of view. The divergence ofopin-
ION upon this subject has either been
greater this season than usual, or else
fuller prominence has been given to the
views of both sides than ordinarily. In
order to harmonic these so far as pos
sible, and with the view of presenting
so far as practicable a trustworthy es-
timateof thecrop of 1S74alarge number
of gentlemen engaged in the cotton
trade have been recently questioned,
and from among their statements the
following have been selected as best
conveying the arguments pro and con:
In the our Of a general CONVERSE
ton with Mr.. 7. T. Bryce, of the well
known firm of Bryce & Co., extensive
cotton brokers in this city, and largely
interested in a number of cotton-grow-
ing plantations IN various parts of the
South, the following statements were
elected: ''The crop of this year" said
Mr.. Bryce, up to the 10th of August
last, promised fairly to be the largest
ever produced in this country. 1t is
certainly true that the acreage has
been considerably reduced, owing to a
variety of causes, but this reduction
has been more than compensated by
the fact that this season no portion of
the crop has had to be absolutely aban-
doned, while last year l2R per cent. of
the entire production was thrown out
as valueless owing to grass, etc. The
result is that by the LIST of August Of
this year, the number of acres
producing cotton was In fact
greater than at the corresponding
time the previous year. The amount
of fertiiizing agents used upon the cot
ton lands of the South was undoubted-
ly less than IN previous years, but was
nevertheless greater than in 1870
when what is still knonrn as the big
crop was produced. 1t is also true
that the extensive drought, lastingfrom
the lst Of August of the present year
till the LIST of September, did no little
damage to the sandy lands of the
South known as the 'uplands,' but the
damage thus done was c~uriously enough
more than compensated by the protec-
ton thus afforded the low or bottom
lands from the ravages of the cotton
worm. Only once since the war have
these lands produced so large and so
fine a crop, and that was in 1870, when
the total cotton yield was 4,347, 600
bales, and in the absence of I'M
forseen events this years yield to the
acre from theselands should exceed that
of 1870. Labor, as a rule throughout
the South has been equally efficient,
and more whites have been employed
successfully than ever before. The
ed by fine showers, continuing in many
instances for more than ten DAYS, and
1t is fair to say that never on the 9TH
of September was the weather more
propitious for the cotton r thanit is
to-day. The development of the plant,
too, has undoubtedly been much accel-
Grated by the previous dry weather,
and the early receipt of the new crop
thus rendered probable, which Will, OF
course, have its Legitimate effect upon
tie market. For the past eight years
the opening price IN the month OF sep
TENDER has been above the clOsingprict
for the same month, and it seems to be
the general impression that the current
season will prove no exception to the
general rule"
In reply to a direct question as tc
his estimate of the forthcoming crop
MIR. Bryce said that it was too early IL
the season, in his opinion, TO predict
the amount of the crop with any GER
tainty. In estimating, he should con,
slider it safe to start with 4,OOO,OOC
bales, but should want to have a lee.
way of 100000 bales for increase, and
go bales decrease, should the frost SET
in early, or some other accident occur,
Mr.. D. E. Huger, a large and mfu-
ential cotton factor at Mobile, Ala, IN
reply to a series of questions upon the
subject, said that the cotton receipts OF
Mobile for last season were 3OO,OOO
bales. and that the lowest estimates for
the ensuing season among the cotton
factors there, who are sellers, and