The Hickman courier. [volume] (Hickman, Ky.) 1859-current, 1874-09-25
THE COTTON CROP.
Factors and Planters Estimates of
southern Stock.

Upon few ordinary every daysublects
is it so difficult to obtain fair state
ment of simple facts, untinged by the
coloring of personal interest, as upon
the probable aggregate amount of a
forthcoming cotton crop. The difficulty
arises from various causes. A large
class of persons talk and estimate flu
emily enough upon the subject, who
have little or no personal knowledge
upon which to base either. All through
the south the village postmaster, the
railway station agent, and the local cot
ton factor have their correspondents in
the great markets OF the north and east
with whom their reports have influence,
and to whose order they are perhaps
not unfrequently made. There Is, too,
a natural aud inherent diversity of in
terest between the cotton planter and
the cotton merchant and consumer.
The former quite naturally finds it to
his advantage to under estimate the
probable cab and over estimate the
chances of misfortune, as this tends TO
pioduce high prices and consequent
profit; while the latter are as prone TO
reverse this order of things, over esti-
mating the crop and under estimating
the probable price to suit their require
ments in Business point of view. The
divergence of opinion upon this subject
has either been greater this season than
usual, or else fuller prominence has
been given to the views of both sides
than ordinarily. In or ~ to harmon
ize these so far as pc. re, and with
the view of pres enting , far as prac-
tricable Trustworthy estimate of the
crop of 1874, a large number of gen.
tlemen engaged in the cotton trade
from among their statements the follow
ing have been selected as best conveying
the argument pro and con:
In the course of a general converse
tiogs with MIR. T. L. Bryce, of the well
known firm of Bryce & Co., extensive
cotton brokers in this city, and largely
intereS ted in a number of cOtton-g grow
ing plantations in various parts of the
south, the following statements were
elected "The crop of this year."
said Mr.. Bryce, sup to the 10th of |
August last, promised fairly to be the |
largest ever produced in this country. 1t |
is certainly true that the acreage has |
been considerably reduced, owing to a |
variety of causes, but this reduction |
has been more than compensated by
the TACT that this season no portion OF /
the crop has had to be absolutely aban- |
dOned, while last year 123 per cent. of |
the entire production was thrown ont |
as valueles SIS owing TO grass, etc. The |
result is that by the 1st Of August of |
this year, the number of acres produc- |
ing cotton was in fact greater than at |
the corresponding time the previous |
year. The amount of fertilizing agents |
used upon the cotton lands of the south |
was undoubtedly less than in previous |
years, but was nevertheless greater than |
IN 1SS0, when what is still know as the |
big crop was prodrced. 1t is |
also true that the extensive drouth, |
lasting from the LIST of August of the |
present year till the 1st of September, |
did no little damage to the sandy lands |
of the south known as the 'uplands,' |
but the damage thus done was curious |
~ enough more than compensated by |
the protection thus afforded the low or
b tom lands from the ravages of the |
cotton worm. Only once since the war |
have these lands produced so large and |
so fine a crop, and that was in 1870, |
when the total cotton yield was A. ST. |
600 bales, and in the absence of unfor- |
seen events THIS years yield to the acre !
from these latids should exceed that of |
1870. Labor, as rule throughout the |
south, has been equally efficient, and |
more whites have been employed sue |
cessfully than ever before. The drouth |
before alluded to was succeeded by fine |
showers, continuing in many instances
for more than ten days, and it is fair to |
say that never on the 7th of September |
was the weather more propitious for the |
cotton crop than it is to day. The de- |
velopment of the plant, too, has un-
doubtedly been much accelerated by /
the previous dry weather, and the early /
of he
probable, which viii, of course, have /
its legitimate effect upon the market. |
For the past eight years the opening |
price in the month of September has
been above the closing price for the
same month, and it seems to be the
general impression that the current
season will prove no exception to the
general rule"
In reply to direct question as to his
estimate of the forthcoming crop, Mr..
Bryce said that it was too early in the
season, in his opinion, to predict the
amount of the Gro } with any certainty.
In estimating, he should consider it safe
to start with 4, 000, 600 bales, but should
want to have leeway of 500, 900 bales
for increase, and $50, 900 bales decrease,
should the frost set in early, or some
other accident occur.
Mr.. d. E. Huger, large and infuen-
tial cotton factor at Mobile, Ala, in re-
ply to q series of questions upon the
subject, said that the cotton receipts of
Mobile for last season were 800, 900
bales, and that the lowest estimates for
the ensuing season among the cotton
factors there, who are sellers, and there
fore favor the views OF planters, was
$50, 900 bales. ranging from that TO 400,-
900 bales. 1t was his personal opinion
that an intermediate figure would prob
ably be more accurate. He, too,
thought it too early to judge, but con-
sidered an early frost the only possible
contingency which could greatly reduce
the crop. oi-e remarked that of the
bottom, middle, and top crops any two
would make fair aggregate, and that
his season only the middle crop had
been partially injured by the droutb.
great deal of cotton was, he said,
shipped frog. Mobile 10 New Orleans,
md thence sold as Orleans cotton at an
advance of one-eighth of a penny.
9 Last season." said n. Huger, "3,
80, 600 bales was about the averag
of the crop made by many
md some even thought it would not ex-
,eed $500, 600 bales, but the crop in
,oint of fact reached 100000 bales" /
Dhe staple of the cotton was, lie thought {
good this season in his sec
ion of the country, as was also the 9
inning, in consequence of the continued {
ry weather.
Several other gentlemen largely in
crested in the cotton trade confirmed !,
nv statements already made, and one !;
f-them remarked that as an indication of :
he prospect of large crop marketed :,
asily might be mentioned the fact that :
Iontgomery, Ale., received Monday
DO bales, while last year the receipts
that point for the entire correspond 6
lg week were but AL bales, and 1.-THE &