, 1874-09-23

NJ. Aubert, the present Republican candi-
date, scores (the returns are not yet COM
plete) upwards of 81, 200. There is there
fore no positive falling off in the number
of Republican voters in Calvados. But
the efforts of the anti-Republican mayors
have reused from their apathy several
thousand electors who, abstaining on the
former occasion, voted now for the Bona
partist. 1t is a curious puzzle that, while
General de Chabaud Latour, an Orlcan-
list, is Minister of the Interior, and passes
in the eyes of the Right and Right Cen
ire as a guarantee against Bonapartisa,
his Under Secretary Of State, NJ. Corne-
Illus de Witt, and the father-in-law of the
latter, NJ. Guizot, whose country house
is near Lisieux, should both have used
their influence notorious OrieaniSts as
they are) in support Of the Bonapartist
candidate. With all these explanations
and allowances the election cannot but
be regarded as q heavy blow to the Re
publican cause. 1t is likely to have q
discouraging effect upon the elections
to come between this and the return Of
the Assembly at the end Of November.
The masses who have no strong c%onvic-
tons or rigid principles will be apt to
think that Republicauism is now the los
ing side The Due de Broglie, in reality
still Prime Minister, though secretly pull
ling the wires, will thus be encouraged
in his belief that public opinion is a vain
phrase, and that with proper and perse-
vering manipulation, aided by state
of siege coercion, an intelligent Govern
ment may bring the people to vote what
ever way it pleases. This is the true I'm
perial system. The Republican party,
however sanguine it may profess itself,
must be appalled, at seeing the success
which this system yet commands. | re-
member hearing it confidently said some
months ago that universal suffrage was
enlightened now to such an extent, that
the appointment of reactionary mayors
would not matter. The dismissed mayors,
it was said, the elect of the people, would
be in every district the most efficient cleo
toral agents, and the electors would fol-
low their lead rather than that of those
appointed to rule over them. The exam
pies of the Nievre and the Calvados do
not bear cut this theory, and the bitter
complaints made by Republican journals
of the undue influence of the mayors led
to the belief that nothing but the unscru-
pulous energy of the Empire is wanting
to lead the constituencies by the nose
Just as the Empire did. But the Empire
knew its own mind, and had definite
and answering object. The present
Government is animated by nothing but
the negative sentiment Of hatred of the
Republic. And so Legitimist candidates
having 10 chance, and Orleanists being
so unpopular that they have not the cour-
age to display their colours, Bonapartism
is favoured as the pas aNr Of Conserva-
tism In spite of the successes of Bona
partisan obtained from this peculiar con-
junction of circumstances, I can see no
prospect of a restoration of the Empire
without violence, and a fulcrum for Yio-
lence is not to be thought of unless on the
inadmissible supposition that Marshal Mac
Mahon is q "Monk." Heaven defend me
from phrophecy But whatever may
be the destiny of France, the most -un-
likely of.all solutions of the great existing
I;AGo,Ifior coopoc RI mo 4bo+ tb.4 tibaNLo