Nashville union and American. [volume] (Nashville, Tenn.) 1868-1875, 1874-01-18
Liverpool Opinion on Cotton.

/ From Smith, Edwards & Co.'S Circular, Dec. 81
The fayorite crop figure in America now
/ appears to be four millions; a few still
| cling to three and three-quarter millions.
| but as many more incline to four and a
/ quarter millions, and certainly the receipts
/ at the moment look more like the large
/ than the small figure.
| Recalling what we have already said of
/ the extreme uncertainty of American esti-
mates, We should say THAT upon the basis
| of a four million crop there is an ample
supply of cotton for the worlds require
ments. The consumption of the world out
Of the last American crop was as nearly as
can be cOmputed-allowing for the mistake
at stOck-taking-3.1O 100000 bales, leaving a
surplus of fully 100000 bales on hand on
1st September.
During the twelve months covered by
this crop the consumption will probably in
crease little in Europe under the inflIl-
ence of the lower price, but as a good deal
of short time has been worked in America
the past three months, it will be rather less
there. Altogether We do not see how four
millions of bales can be actually consumed,
but il may be absorbed by the trade if
prices keep low, as they held small stocks
at the opening Of the season. We do not
think that the spinning capacity of Great
Britain can be a. all increased this coming
year; hardly any mills are building, and it
is difficult to get as mich work out of the
machinery rs before, owing to the extern
sion of holidays and shorter hours among
operatives. We think any increase of the
consumption of American cotton will only
be from superseding Surats. The same
holds good on the Continent, where trade |
To-,
spinners are certainly not increasing their |
aggregate consumption.
The prospects of supply from India are |
good. To our surprise, we learn that there |
is 4 considerable increase of planting in the !
Berars (the OOmrawUttce district), and all |
the accounts of the crops in Western India |
are favorable. As Bombay has a fair |
amount of last crop still to ship, We think /
that she should be able to send to Europe /
more than last year, unless prices rule so /
very low that large stocks remain up-coun-
try in the hands of the growers. From /
Madras, larger supplies are coming forward, |
but from Calcutta we look for very little, |
owing to the low price to which Bengal |
cotton has sunk. Altogether, we think |
that India, even AZ present prices, will send
as much cotton as last year, while any rise
in price might draw considerably more.
Brazil promises to send more than last wear,
but not so much as the year before, and
Egypt IS expected to give 4 crop equal to
the last. Surveying the whole cotton field,
We should say that the present prospect is
good for spinners, but not encouraging for
speculative operations. II seems probable
that Liverpool will be heavy receiver Of
cotton during the spring months, and, as
spinners are themselves large importers,
we fear that it will be an unsatisfactory |
market to the importer. Nor IS the state
OF trade in Manchester such as to encOur-
age sanguine views; considerable stocks of
both goods and yarns are held by producers.
The great check given by the Bengal fam
inc TO the demand for Calcutta has told
seriously upon the makers Of these goods,
and there are at present 10 signs of buoy
ancy in;thc Manchester market.
To set against this, the great factTemainS
that cotton is fully 2d per pound cheaper
than at this time last year, and Id per 10.
below the average Of the year. 1t is held
by many that this comparative cheapness
fully cOmpensates for the prospect of abun-
dant supply; and undoubtedly a sanguine
feeling exists in America, whence consider
able orders have recently come to buy for
arrival. We should say that range Of Sd
to SD for middling uplands is not unreas-
enable for the average of the year, with a
crop of four millions, but it remains to be
seen whether such prices can be supported
during the pressure of import in the spring
months. We think that will turn very
much upon the question whetherthere will
be a reduced area planted this coming sea-
son. Ii the idea of short crop following
this one gets afOat, a decided advance upon
present rates might occur, somewhat SINH
lar to what happened in 1871; but if it is
found that an equal area is planted, it will
be hard to move the market, for people will
argue that if an Indifferent season like the
last has given four million bales, good
season will give q millions Or more next
year.
Our .own view is that no great decrease }