New-York tribune., 1874-08-01
FLUCTUATIONS IN TIE PRICE or WHEAT

fluctuations IN TIE PRICE or WHEA1
For the last five harvest years the quantity
of wheat and wheat -four exported from the
United States has been larger tlIan usual, and
for the wear which will eni with next month
the exports will have been the greatest ever
known. II is natural under the circumstances
for many persons to think that all we have
to do Is to raise great crop Of grain, and
that the European markets will always be
able to absorb the surplus at a remunerative
price Such is not necessarily the fact and
1t seems an appropriate occasion, at this
season, to communicate to our readers a
little authentic information on the matter of
prices of grain and the fluctuations to which
they are subject
The English Government for many years has
collected with great care the prices at which
wheat is sold on each market day in all the
principal market towns of England ana Wales,
and the general facts derived from the En-
glish statistics are true of the prices in the
grain markets of this country, as the gold
prices here are, as a rule, lower than those in
England by a sum equal only to the freights
and ordinary charges for moving the grain
from America to Europe In December, 1S41,
Mr.. Tooke, the highest authority in matters
of this kind, in discussing the probable range
of future prices of wheat under a nominal
duty of one shilling per quarter on impOrta-
tions, gave the opinion, or conjecture" as
he more modestly called it, that the whole
fluctuation would thcnceforth range between
the extremes of 60 and 30 shillings per quar-
ter, barring embargoes and famnes.
This statement was made subject to the
further provsO that the value of gold re-
mained constant. The extraordinary pro-
"duction of gold in Russia" was mentioned as
an element which might at some time pro-
duce q higher price of wheat. The mines of
California and Australia had not at that time
been discovered. The course of prices since
1s47 remarkably confirms Mr.. Tooke's conjec-
ture, and, at the same time affords rough
but unimpeachabe measure of the deprecia-
ton which has taken place i'll the value OF
cold. Mr.. TOoke's estimate of the range Of
nrices for the quarter of wheat was made, as
he expressly says, from careful view OF
nr,ces in the interval between 1918 and 1916,
with the advantage of thorough practical
lnovledge of the corn trade and all the circum-
stances which had affected it, and also an
equally thorough acquaintance with the prin-
ciples of political economy. The problem was
simply to divest the actual prices of those
wears of the effects wrought upon them by
| tbe Corn laws. Mr. Tooke based his cOnclu-
sions on the experience of twenty eight
wears, and it so happens that nearly the same
| period has elapsed since the date of his con-
"iecture.r The range of prices, instead of be-
ing from 80 shillngs to 60, has actually been
from 40 shilings to 20. The mean Is 55 shil-
lings, instead of As, and the difference, amount
ing to about 20 per cent, is accounted for by
the depreciation of gold. or, in other words,
| the imitation of the worlds currency by the
| issues from the Russian, Californian and Aus
| tralian gold mines, and this agrees with est-
mates formed by Prof Jevons and other au-
thorities by processes entirely different.
While Mr.. Tooke's knowledge of the sub
ject, including also the effect in raising prices
of an enlarged production of gold, are thus
fully vindicated it may well be doubted
whether he gave full allowance to the inHu-
ence on prices of the future immense pro-
ductions of America, combined with facilities
for moving them by land, lake, and ocean,
which were unknown at the time he wrote.
That influence, it seems to us, should be to
lessen the distance between the extremes of
prices. The improvements in transportation
between Chicago and Liverpool are 80 recent
and 80 rapid in their growth that we cannot
yet measure their full effects by the statistics
! Of term Of years. Rqt this y obvious. tbst