The weekly democratic statesman. [volume] (Austin, Tex.) 1871-1883, 1874-01-08
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iron "a Iprdon Spectator
The answer which ze publish to-day 20
our correspondent 81 last week, who de-
scribed bis gsmbiing experience 90 Saxon
les Bsins. Is curious Illustration II the
depth - which a common superstition
reaches in educated men. Il IS a popular
but very erroneous belief tiat because il IS
beforehand much more unlikely that very
uncommon eTent-say the accidental find
ing Of a sovereign on the strcet-should
happen on two days in succession than that
Il should happen once, therefore, when L
has once Happened, it viii be much more IN
likely for it % happen again ct once than It
was that It should happen the first time.
There IS no fallacy which enters deeper into
the public mind than this. We have known
men who have lost something valuable one
day IN their walk 90 out with quite an easy
mind the next, on tie ground that It was
antccedehtiy so unlikely that they should
have such q misfortune two days running.
that its occurrence the day before must BE
considered an insurance against Its happen
ing again. People sometimes say that q
burned child breads the FIRE. And nndouOt-
edly an unlucky FIRE Insurance. company
breads a fire. Yet We doubt il even all in
surance Office directors are quite free from
the false impression that run of I'll luck
against them is less likely after such run
Of i'll luck has already taken place than it
would be If the prosperity for years back
had heen unclouded.
Proverbs like Its long lane that has
10 turning which are quite true IN them
selves, arc misapplisd by the naturally de-
fective logic of the human mind into argu-
ments why man might fairly expect the
turning 10 be nearer If he had already
walked far without one, than it would be
reasonable TO suppose It If he had only a
very short bit Of straight lane behind him.
If one person In a family slips on piece
of orange peel on Monday and breaks his
leg. the other members of the family Will
sometimes 20 out on Tuesday with a moral
certainty of not slipping on pieces Of orange
peel and breaking their legs, because it
would be so absurdly unlikely that such
sn event should happen twice running; and
gamblers habitualiy act on that extraordi-
nary confusion of ideas, as modified, how
ever, by another strange superstition which
is precisely unreasonable, namely, that
there is secret tendency now and then to
runs" of luck. so that, if for two or three
times a particular number comes up In
game of chance, they are half disposed to
give fortune credit for having taken ca
price in its favor, and are disposed to stake
upon it for at least once or twice more. Of
course all these notions are equally ground
less 1t is, no doubt, quite true that it is
much more improbable that you will find a
sovereign in the street two days running
than on one single day; but the reason why
it is more improbable is that the chance of
two intrihsically improbable, and yet quite
sion, IS compounded of the two chances of
each Of these events happening, and is
therefore much less than either chance sep
arately. But directly one of them has hap
pened, the part of that improbability which
is due TO the first event of the two is already
surmounted, and non the probability of the
joint event happening is precisely the same
as the probability that the second would
happen alone