New-York tribune., 1874-08-12
BUSINESS PROSPECTS.

What is meant by the expression, "reyiyal
of business" which is so anxiously looked
for by every one7 Undoubtedly something
better than the common fate of human un-
dertakngs If we glance back over the past,
we shall find that more than half the time
large numbers of people have been complain
ing of dull times" scarcity of money" or
some such evil. Then, too, people make the
mistake of expecting times to change from
dull to good too quickly. The whole COM
mercal world now moves as though 1t were
animated by a single soul The great com
merca nations, Great Britain, France. Ger
many and the United States, are all prosper
Gus or all depressed together. Of this i'm
pOrtant fact the events of the last eight years
afford striking proof. Where the mass is 80
must be slow work. Recovery from the panic
has been, in our opinion, quite as rapid as
the nature of modern commerce and credit
will permit. By modern commerce and credit
we near the growth of the last forty years
the product of the railroad, the steam vessel,
and the electric telegraph. These have given
nerves to the world, and made commerce a
living creature. We therefore say that any
speculations as to the future of business which
are confined to this nation alone are radically
defective.
The effect of three or four years of active
industry, universal prosperity Cat least in ap-
pearance), and buOyant credit is to produce
an unhealthy condition of things, which
finally causes a commercial crisis and pros
tratiOn such as we are now experiencing.
Industry, we find, has been misdirected and
labor has been turned into the wrong chan
nels Credit has been abused and capital
wasted In our case these natural evils have
been aggravated by spurious currency, dan
gerOus alike to creditors and debtors, and but
imperfecty connected with the natural money
of the commercial world. Now it is a work
of time to restore the just balance between
the several branches of production, to remove
the distractions to a healthy commerce be-
tween consumers and producers, and to rec
| tify the dishonest or ill-judged operations of
credit too rashly given and taken. Wounds
must be closed up and dead matter be got
| rid of. These are operations that require
| Time, that greatest of physicians. To us, as
| impartial observers, there seems to be great
| change yet necessary to be produced before
what are called good times can be expected.
| To come to details, the condition of Eng
land, France, and Germany is far from that
state of robust health which is necessary to
make them good customers and easy creditors
of the United States. In England readjust-
mcnt of wages and prices has been in progress
for nearly a year, and is yet far from being
completed. The exports of British manufac-
lures for the first six months of this year are
not only less than for the same months i'm
1878, but less than for the same months in
1872. A trade whose growth has been for half
| q century the wonder of the world has been
for two years either stationary or declining
This is a sign of bad times which cannot be
questioned. The same condition of affairs,
though perhaps in less degree, exists in
France and Germany. 1t exists also in the
United States, but we fail to see here the ener-
getic struggle which is making in England to
adapt wages to her changed situation. We are to
have great crop and lower prices of food all
| over the world in consequence of the abundant
harvests now being gathered. This will un-
questionably be of great benefit to Europe,
and particularly to Great Britain, and the ball
will in the end rebound back to U.s. But
probably two OF three years will pass by be-
fore the full effect is Produced. Perhaps two
] or three good harves.s will be required to pro-