The Portland daily press., 1874-06-26
Prospects for Fall Trade.

1t is rathnr early to make predictions with
any degreee of confidence respecting the au-
tumn trade. There are so many things, the
influence of which cannot be computed in its
effects upon business and chance for sudden
accidents, of which no one can determine the
cause, that it is extremely hazardous to act
upon present indications. 1t is, however,
fair to set forth certain facts which are found
to exist in the business of the country, and
upon them base reasonable expectations. To
this end, in the preface of the July issue of
the Reference Book of the well-known
mercantile agency of Messrs. E. Russell &
Co., an interesting statement is made, derived
from their extensive knowledge of the condi-
ton of the business of the country. The ar
tice says that although the paralyzing effects
OF the panic of last September have fingered
longer than was generally anticipated, it is
fact worthy of notice that these effects are
: more apparent in restricting trade than in
causing disaster. If the condition of the COM
mercial fabric is to be judged by the number
and Importance of mercantile failures, there
is no cause of apprehension; for in view of the
circumstances of the last halt year, it is both
surprising and gratifying to know, that with
in that period there have been fewer failures
in number, and certainly fewer in promi-
nence than for the same period in the aver
age of years. In addition to this encourage
ing feature respecting the mercantile solvency
OF the country is the gratifying statement,
which iS the rpSut IF IL
inquiry, that there has been remarkable re-
duction of indebtedness among all classes and
IN almost every section of the country, and
that the mercantile Indebtedness of this coun-
try to day is not two-thirds what it was a
year ago. "Indeed," says the writer, SO
great has the tendency been toward liquida-
ton, that it alone has been as much cause
OF restricted business and hampered trade,
as any want of confidence in the stability of
the country, or the safety of credit. The
fright that the debtor class received in Sep
TENDER has had its effect, and the very prom
inence of the failures that immediately fol-
lowed impressed deeply lesson that has been
needed"
While our people are still feeling so keenly
the effects of the panic and the months of dull
ness which followed, it will be difficult to re-
gard it as blessing even in disguise; but if
it is good indication to owe but two dollars
now where three were owed year since, the
season of business prostration or dullness has
not been an unmiXed evil.
From full survey of the whole field it is
safe to expect that the fall trade will be a fair
one. An unusually abundant crop is promis-
ed all over the country; the prices of our pro-
ducts have been maintained at remunerative
prices; our exports are quite sure of the same
steady gain which has characterized that
trade the past six months importations show
large decrease; stocks of all kinds of mer-
chandlse are unusually low in all retail and
consumptive quarters as during the dull sea-
son retailers have purchased with the utmost
prudence; the monetary institutions of the
country are well sustained; the machinery OF
commerce and production is in coed running
order and no violent shock has been given
to the currency by legislation; consequently
there is good reason to expect that satisfac-
tory business will be done during the coming
season and that the tagging wheels of indus
try will be started up with new speed.