Memphis daily appeal. [volume] (Memphis, Tenn.) 1847-1886, 1874-09-26
THE COTTON CROP.
VIII tt Ibree Million and \ Half
Crop or n Four Mi1Iion-A Careful
COLLATION. Of Facts and Figures.

From the New York World.l
There is now no longer any doubt
that, Notwithstanding a prolific yield of
wheat, the money that the entire crop of 1874
will fetch will be far less than the amount
realized from last year's crop. In lS70we pro-
duced 2S7,745,626 bushels Of wheat. This year
we may safely estimate the crop at $50 OOO,OOJ
bushels. AT the lowest estimate the did, renee
between the price this year and the price last
year is about an average of twenty-five cents
per bushel, which will apparently reduce the
farmers receipts from wheat alone SS7 800 OUU.
This is certainly great deficiency, but it is
entirely owing to bountiiul harve>ts, not only
on the continent OF Europe, but also in In
gland, which Is the only customer for Amerl-
can wheat. We are apparently threat
ened with another deficiency in the
s@Ount of oo69 money yroD to PSsre Pe realized
to be several conflicting influences op-
Grating on the price of cotton. While private
advices generally, and the official reports of
the bureau Of agriculture, point to & reduced
crop of 3,500,00J Dales, the most stubborn and
enthusiastic belief of determined bear
clique in q crop of 4,S@3,UO0 bales seems to be
fully indorsed by the low price for cotton now
prevailing. The cotton crop vitality differs
fIom our wheat crop in TINS respect, that
produce we only export some oO,OO0,0OO BUSH
els, or about % per cent; We exported during
the cotton year just ended 2SlO,gol bales,
nearly 20 per cent. of the whole production.
The difference, then, lies in this fact, namely:
That If prolific crop Of wheat on the CONT
nent and In England reduces the price of our
surplus wheat, and consequently VI our home
consumed wheat 20 per cent, the foreign con-
sumner gets the advantage of only % per cent.
OF the whole reduction In the price
Of the crop, while our home consumers
enjoy the advantage of Y per cent. But II
our great staple. cotton, is reduced in price 20
ner cent, Europe gains to the extent of 20 per
cent. of the total reduction resulting from The
depressed price, and our home consumers
only gain 30 per cent. Hence the importance
of a fair or depressed price in cotton IS of i'm
mensely greater importance to the country
at large than the fluctuations in the price OF
grain. Cotton is now lower than it has been
to 5 cents a pound, The following were the
prices of middling cotton at the beginning OF
September for the past three years:
September, cents
September, cents
September, cents
The price at the beginning of September,
1874, and at this -monent,iis about Is to l61Sc
a pound for m1dding cotton. Assun-
ing, for arguments sake, that our crop pros-
pecis promise more than 4,0OO0O bales OF cot
ton, 1t may be said that there was hardly any
doubt in September, 1873, that the crop would
be over 100000 bales, and therefore, if the
prospects are equally good now, why is there
this discrepancy? To be sure there is the law
of supply and demand, which might give the
desired explanation But it is significant
fact that there are daily sales OF 1900 to % 900
bales OF cotton In Liverpool, half of which is
generally American cotton, and most of it for
future delivery. That is TO say, Liverpool is
securing some 5000 bales of cotton week of
our CROP tAdl IL uoW II process OF picking, at
the moderate price OF say to SD for mid
ding, to be delivered to her during the win
ter months; and while she is securing our
crop at price which would be Justified al
the lowest calculation, only by crop OF (, ,SS}-
900 bales, we are, as no one will deny in great
doubt whether the crop will yield 3,5OO,600 or
4,0OO, COO bales. loss Of 4c a pound on cotton
is, on short crop of 3,000,OO0 bales, q loss OF
S63,OO0sOOO, and loss OF &c pound is a loss on
the crop of Sf2, ,000,000 II must he evident that
II we make crop OF ,l00,0e0 bales we have to
ship 2folJOO0 to Europe, and keep some 800, coo
bales for home consumption. But If we only
make crop of $4,000 bales, and ship $780,
900 bales to Europe we should run short some
100000 bales for home consumption, or Uicg
versa, we would ship less and retain more for
home consumption. But in either case the
price must make up for the shortness OF the
supply. The most prude1t thing at present
would be not IecAlesslY TO press sales while
the erop Is still so douDtfully estimated The
large receipts of the new crop for September
and October are BY no means criterion OF
the crop, for II is obvious that one might M a
bottle as fast from a one-gallon keg as from a
ive-gallon keg. Tine important Question is.
how many bottles Will each kee dIIq The
first pickings Of the cotton fields will Weld
nearly equally large receipts in September
Q nd October II the crop is l,j00,0OO, or only