The Worthington advance. [volume] (Worthington, Minn.) 1874-1908, 1874-09-12


Mr.. Sanderson, from whom, however, I
venture to difer,upon matter in which
he is so we'll Informed, with great diff
dcncc.
Mr. Kains.Jackson' estimate is of
far different character and much wider
scope. He not only estimates the Brit
ish crop, but summing up that Of the
rest of the world, declares that the lat
ter will leave S8,0OO,OOO bushels Of
wheat to sell, while the former will
need to buy but 64,000,000 to, 72,OO0.-
600, predicts serious decline in the
price Of wheat, and even reckons how
much money ($65, 000. 00O) England will
gain by this decline.
CRITICISM OF Mr.. KA1NS.JACKSON'
FIGURES.
Such is the at present incalculable
number Of conditions upon which price
depends, that have always regarded
attempts to reach any definite conclu-
sions on this subject as lying far beyond
tho province Of statistics or political
economy, and considerably within those
of stock jobbery and humbug. Upon
this ground alone Mr.. Kains-Jacksons
conclusions arc open to SO grave sus-
picion Of honesty as to appear unworthy
of serious consideration. But since the
New York Tribune, an authority in
the agricultural circles Of, this country,
has seen fit, while quoting Mr.. Jack
son S conclusions, to give them as those
Of an ''unimpcachable authority (7ri-
bu''e's editorial, Sept. ., and this
thoughtlcss and extreme appreciation
has found it's way into other prints, it
ccomcs necessary, in order to counter
act the false impressions which it may
prove the means of conveying, to cx-
anime Mr.. Jackson's statements with
some degree Of critical attention.
First, as to his estimate of the Brit.
ish crop, which he puts at ll2,OO0,00O
to l20.O0O,000 ushels. lie gives no
cumulative bases Of acreage nor Of av-
cragc yield, as Mr.. Sanderson and
have done but quotes vague and frag-
mcntary opinions from various local
newspapers ir England, and comes to a
bold but insutliciently supported con-
clusion Of his own, III a lump sum Of
bushels, having range, from minimum
to maximum, Of 10 less than 5000, 600.
Second, he bases the consumption Of
the United Kingdom during the ensuing
harvest year, lS74-5, upon popula-
ton of 32,0OO,OOO, whereas, according to
British official tables, it was nearly &c.
500, 900 in midsummer, 1874, and will
be considerably more during the year
| to come.
Third, his es' innate of the wheat
crops. consumption and surplus, of the
rest Of the world, is based upon no
evidence which he adduces or refers to
or that is known to exist. He simply
asserts that ''Judging from all accepted
| present estimates, the United States,
Russia, Hungary, Germany. France
and Turkey will have an aggregate sur
plus Of SS,000,0O0 bushels Of wheat"
INDUSTRIOUS ERRORS.
It's needless to point out the many
mounstrous errors in this sweeping ipse
diaI. Two will suffice. As to th5
United States, how can Mr.. Kains-
jackson know the ''accerted present
estimate Of the wheat crop Of this
country when we don't know it our
selves? The Monthly Agricultural
Report for July, 1874, gives the aver
age condition of winter wheat at l04
and Of spring wheat at 9G;
but who can tell so
definitely as Mr.. Kains-Jackson
prctcnds what our accepted average
crop is, or still less how much the sur
plus will be? The census Of 1870
| showed wheat crop OF 2S8,0OO,OOO
bushels, but the annual agricultural re-
port Of the same years gave but 1885,
100000 bushels, while the reports
Of 1871 and 1872, although the popula-
ton and culture had meanwhile largely
increased, gave but 23l,000,OO0 and
$50, 00O,O bushels respectively, and
that of 1873 Is this day refused to be
communicated to the public bv the
Commissioner.
Ordinary iinocular vision is no cir
"umstance to Mr.. Kains.Jackson's in
| sight into the contradictory and sup
pressed statistics Of our rather dynam-
icaI than statistical wheat culture.
With reference to Turkey, Mr..
kains-Jackson, in his eagcrncss seem
mgly to shear the London grain mar
kc;, appears to have forgotten the terri
bic famine which is now dcsolating that
country. But if Mr.. jackson forgot it
the London Times did not, for the very
next day after it printed his letter, it
published an account from Constantine
pic which set forth that from 5000 to
10000 people had persisted from star
| walton in Angora and other parts of
Anato:ia; that the distress still con-
tinued; and that, according to MIR.
Farnsworth, an American missiona ",
who had recently visited the neighbour
hood, there will be no bread crops this
year, the wrctchcd inhabitants not hay
ing possessed seed whcrewith to SOW
! the earth. This condition Of affairs
bespcaks strange sort Of 'exportable
wheat surplus' in Turkey this year.
BRITISH AUTHORITIES ENDEAvoR1NG TO DE-
PRESS TIE MARKET.
have now done with Mr.. Kains-
jackson and his conjcctures of wheat
crops and prices, and have only to re-
mark that it would be truly grievous
thing if the tissue of probabilities which
appear over his name, and arc based
uron an evidently exaggerated estimate
| Of this year. British wheat crop, and
otherwise merely wild guesscs as to the
American and some other crops, were
permitted to influence our markets for
cereals.
1t is very natural that Mr.. Jackson,
| who is an Englishman, should wish his
country to be the gamer of the $65, 000,-
600 which he rather confidently CON
cludcs will be the value of the difference
between the ensuing and the last years
purchases of wheat for British account
in this country; but it is not at all de-
s'rablc that through an entirely mis-.