The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1874-02-02
Solar Spots and Solar WealzAcr-Pre-
dtctiOns.

allure cycles has been recently reopened by
the publication of the laborious researches of
the German physicist Koppen. The question
whether the increased frequency of solar spots
in any given year affects the heat and mag.
netc condition of the earth has never slum-
bered since the celebrated investigation of the
elder Herschel. This matchless astronomer
formed the opinion that when the suns face
is most thickly spotted it radates unusually
large quantities of heat; and he reasonably
concluded that if this was true the price of
corn in England would show it, INQUIRY
proved the correctness of his reasoning for he
found corn had been uniformly cheaper in the
years of maximum sun-spottedness
The inference drawn by Herschel is sus.
tanned by the new inquiries of DR.. Koppen.
Selecting the Central Physical Observatory al
St. Petersburg, with its vast mass of meteoro.
logical records, as the place for prosecuting
his work, this scientist collates the registers OF
nearly thirty distinct regions and geographical
districts, covering the last hundred years
(from 1850 to 1870). On comparison of the
thermal results with the sun-spot wave strik.
ing correspondence at once appears up
to the year 1854. In the tropics
the maximum of heat falls about one year be-
fore the spot minimum; and in the extra
tropical zones about year after the minimum.
1t seems probable from actual observation
that the SUMS surface temperature is at ito
highest one or two years before the minimun
of its spottedness. It would also appear thai
the spots (taking them to be solid bodies)
take so long to melt in the glowing solar fires
that their minimum temperature occurs after
their heat supply has been mostly radiated on
the terrestrial surface and raised It's tempera-
ture to the"maximum. The investigation fur.
ther shows that from 1915 to 1854 all the
peculiarities and disturbances in the sun-spoa
curve are reflected in the thermometric curve,
or, in a word, the trough of the one wave and
the crest of the other are symmetrical, and
vice versa. The author suggests that furthes
inquiry over more protracted period of time
will show several Independent periodical &C
lions which are directly concerned in pro-
ducing the climatic changes and weather
cycles of our own planet.
But, what is of more practical and Of present
value, he finds that the greatest anomalies Of
in a series which progresses by multiples Of
nine, and in such manner that an interval
of twenty-seven years alternates with one OF
eighteen years. From 174O to 1857 the only
exception is the isolated cold year Of 1894, SO
famous as that in which Pichegru's whole
army encamped and wintered in Holland
If the rule deduced be correct, and ih
validity between 174O and 1867 Ne not mere
coincidence, then the next intensely cold
winter for southwestern Europe is that Of
1875-76.
No doubt in many cases of prediction we
find illustrated the aphorism Of Lord Bacon,
''Men mark when they hit, and never mark
when they miss" 1t is truism universally
to be remembered, We must be careful how we
generalize facts before we have sufficient
number at our disposal. And yet it must not
be overlooked that the accumulated results Of
many such laborious and extensive inquiries
as DR.. Koppen's, prosecuted by Independent
physicists, with single exception (hat of M.
Gautier, of Geneva), confirm the old view Of
Sir William Herschel.
If further researches conclusively demon
strate it meteorology would soon be able to
furnish approximate forecasts of exceptionally
cold and hot years. stormy and serene seasons.
The value and utility of such long predictions
may be guessed at from knowing, as we do,
the immense advantages of our present one
and two days forecasts. The subject is
worthy Of vigorous and widely extended in
vestgation, and we may hope the data fur
nished by the Signal Office will finally avail
for its solution.