Grant County herald. [volume] (Lancaster, Wis.) 1850-1968, 1874-01-15
Gamblers Fallacies,

The London Spectator, referring to
+ me letter of correspondent who de
scribed his gambling experience at
Saxon les Bains, says that is a curious
illustration Of the depth to. which
Common superstition reaches in edu-
Gated men. 1t is a popular but very
erroneous belief shat because it is be-
forehand much m re unlikely that a
very uncommon event Say the acct
Genital finding of sovereign in the
street-should happen on two days in
succession, than that it should happen
once, therefore, when it has once hap
pened, 1T will be much more unlikely
tor 1t To happen again at cnre than it
was that 1t should happen the first
| time.
There is no fallacy which enters
deeper into the public mind than this.
| We have known men who bad lost
something valuable one day IN their
walk, 90 out with quite an easy mind
the next, on the ground that it was
antecedently so unlikely that such a
misfortune should happen again two
days running, that its occurrence the
day before must be considered an in,
surance against its happening again.
People sometimes sag that burnt
child breads the lire And undoubt-
edly an unlucky fire insurance compa-
NJ breads the fire. Yet we doubt if
even all insurance Office directors are
quite free from the false impression
that a run Of i'll luck against them is
less likely after such run OF ill luck
has already taken place, than it would
be if the prosperity for years back had
been unclouded. Proverbs like at
| a long lane that has no turning, that
| are quite true in thems Ives, are miss
applied by the naturally.detective log
lc of the human mind, into arguments
why a man might fairly expect the
turning to be nearer if he had already
walked far without one, than it would
be reasonable to suppose it if had only
very short bit OF straight lane be-
hind him If one person slips on a
piece of orange peel on Monday and
breaks his leg, the other members of
the family will sometimes 60 out on
Tuesday With moral certainty of not
injur ng themselves the same way, be.
cause it would be so absurdy unlikely
that such an event would happen twice
running; and gamblers habitually act
on that extraordinary confusion of
ideas, as modified, however, by anoth-
er strange superstition which is pre-
cisely as unreasonable, namely, that
here is secret tendency now and
then to ''runs of luck, so that if for
two or three times particular num-
Der comes up IN a game OF chance,
they are halt disposed to give Foltune
credit for having taken a caprice in
his favor, and are disp 2sed to take
upon it once or twice more. OF course
all these notions are equally ground
less. 1t is no doubi true that there is
much more improbabIlity ofyour find
ing sovereign on the street two days
runuing, than on one single day; but
the reason why it is more Improbable
is that the chance of two intrlnscally
improbable, and yet quite independ
ent events happening III succession, Is
compounded of the two chances of
each of these events happening, and is
therefore much less then than either
chance separately. But directly one
of them has happened, the part ofthat
improbability which IS due TO the first
event OF the Two IS already snrmount
ed, and now the probability of the joint
event happening is precisely the same
as the probab lily that the second
would happen alone.