The New Orleans bulletin. [volume] (New Orleans [La.]) 1874-1876, 1874-07-05
Prospects for Lively Fall Trade.
From r. g. Dunn 4 Co.'S Reference Book fo
Tu1x I

The circumstances Of the past six months
have not been favorable to trade. The effects
of the panic of last September have fingered
longer than was anticipated by many; but these
effects have been more apparent IN restricting
trade than in producing disaster. Considering
the saddenness and violence of the crisis Of
last autumn, the commercial fabric of the
country has not shown serious signs of disor-
der, if the number or importance of mercantile
failures are to be taken as an index to its con-
dition. 1t is fact, as surprising as it is graft
flying, that, within the past six months, there
have absolutely been fewer failures in number.
and certainly fewer in prominence, than for
the same period in the average of years. On
the contrary, we have had abundant opportu-
nifty tor observing very remarkable reduction
Of Indebtedness in all classes, and in almost
all sections OF the country. 1t is safe to say
that the internal mercantile Indebtedness in
the country to-day is not more than two
thirds what it was at this time last year. In
deed, so great has the tendency been toward
liquidation, that it alone has been as much q
cause of restricted business and hampered
trade as any want Of confidence in the stabil-
ity Of the country, or the safety of credit. The
fright that the debtor class received in Sep
TENDER has had its effect, and the very prom
inence of the failures that Immediately fol-
lowed impressed deeply lesson that has been
needed.
If, then, it is good to be reducing debts-if
it is wise to owe two dollars where last year
three were due-the six months of dull times
which have been experienced are not without
some compensation. With this consideration
in mind the future does not wear as gloomy a
look as might be anticipated, in view Of the al
most universally depressed tone of public SEN
timent regarding the condition of business. 1t
would be idle to deny that the dull trade Of
the past six months has made some inroads
upon the surplus capital Of not a few, for ex-
penses have not been reduced in proportion to
the decline of profits, while the depreciation Of
values in many departments has been very
marked. Many a trader is therefore poorer
to-day than he was a year ago. Should the
restricted business continue, disasters may fol-
low, and failures be frequent; but it is surely a
reasonable expectation that the autumn trade
will be fair one.
All the indications that in former years
would be taken as a basis for this hope are
presented now. An unusually abundant crop
of almost every production is promised in al
most all sections of the country. Prices for
these products ore maintained at remunera-
tive figures, and the steady gain in the value
of our exports, which the past six months has
shown, is almost certain of repetition in the
next hall year. The lmpOrtatlOns snow
large decrease; the stocks of all kinds of mer-
chandise are confessedly low in all retail and
consumptive quarters, and we confess we can
not see how there should not be satisfactory
business done. The monetary institutions of
the country have been well sustained, all the
machinery of commerce is in running order,
no violent shock has been given to the cur
rency by legislation, and there is nothing to
prevent reasonable activity in those articles
that go to make up legitimate trade. The
new railroad construction account, the iron
interest, building operations, and other de-
partments that have anticipated the demands
Of the time by years, will not unlikely continue
restricted and depressed, but that is no good
reason why there should not be fair business
done in merchandise.