New-York tribune., 1874-06-22
THE PEACE OF EUROPE.
POSSIBILITY OF ITS BEING DISTURBED.

OF CoMMoNs-TuK PROBABILITY OF VioLAi,or
OF BEJGIUM's EEUTRAIrY-wHAI LNiN
LUxEMBURG Is LIKELY TO EXERCISE
,rRoM THE REGULAR CORRESPONDENT OF ,"1 ~. .ha
BERLIN June SIT would be idie W oo"' .ha.
rrosnect in Europe is becoming cIouus' "'u
war NAV come at no late day to put ah cru W '"'
-. oro.d nance One Of the worst symptoms
:; the calmpess with which men dlscussthe eleinehs
~ danger Since New Years Day series.of pariia-
nentaTv debates and other public speeches. OF
books pamphlets and articles IN the press has kept
pnblic opinion in a continual state of uneaslness;
and general sense Of insecurity perYades society,
Earl Russels mischievous Interpolation SET the oa
In motion That maadroit meddler thought IL
incumbent on him to add 10 fears already acute
enough, and TO stir up passions already Keen ana
active. He succeeded even better than he could
have wished. Then Earl Derby followed with
statements about fulfilling the obligations of the
country. The German staff. and the German
Foreign Office also, look with sort of con-
temptuous pity on this parliamentary bravado. But
the mischief was wrought just the same. The
French and German press set actively at work
twisting the words of Earl Russell and Earl Derby
into the service Of their respective countries. See
there" says a Paris writer, England gives you
warning that your eOnquests must stop here,
aud that you not to add Belgium and
Holland to Alsace and Lorraine "Ah! no. replies
the Norddeutsche IIlgemeine Zeitua0 "the debate
shows THAI you are not to march over Belgium the
next time YOU set out for the RhineD Earl Russell
clearly refers 10 your new German Army blA as a
menace to European peace says the Frenchman.
NO" replies the German, "he charges you with
openly preparing for a war of rerGnche.' Ger
many's strength makes war inevitable" Frances
restessness makes peace impossible And so on
Indefinitely, with charges and countercharges Grim
nations and recriminations.
Unfortunately. these writers playing with fire.
Human nature being what it is. and the relations
between France and Germany being what they are,
ii was inevitable that the discussion should pass
from principles and facts. from random charges 10
mschievous details. The ndiscreet observations of
Earl Derby about the guarantees gave the cue The
intimatiou of purpose TO have Belgian neutrality
respected made not the slightest effect Germany,
which, as have already said, knows the true value
of an English statesman's pledges. But it turned
public attention to Belgium, and this in itself
an evil. The question arose, BY whom is Bel
gums neutrality threatened As answers 10 this,
two distinct theories presented themselves. The
French theory partly from strategical consid-
eratlon and partly political; the German was almost
purely from strategcal. The latter is the most
simple. 1t assumes of course determination
the part of France TO the war at the earliest
date and IN that case the necessity for her armies
70 strike at the foe over Belgium. The line of the
Nosges and the Mosclle is frinCed by fortresses
against which the French would dash themselves in
vain. The mountains. the narrow passes and the
formidable militia of that little State would render
Inexpedient an attack by way of Switzerland. Ac-
cordingy there remains only elgum be-
tween the Two countries and the Germans
assume that, If circumstances should ever
prove favorable, the French would not hesitate TO
throw their troops suddenly across Belgium TO the
Rhone The movement would be effected so swiftly
that Belgium herself could offer no resistance, and
England would have time to interfere. II is not
my part 10 pronounce on the justice of this theory
attributed to the French. Believing however, in
the worst designs Of France. the Germans are per-
haPs right in insisting that the integrity of little
kingdom. which lies between them and the fOe is,
instead of of annoyance, an important ele-
ment in their defensive resources, and consequently
principle in which they are even more deeply in
tere5ted than England herself
The French of course reply 10 all this by counter
insinuations. Since the defeat of France they
argue. and the destruction of the balance of power
the position Of the smaller European States has
become much more precarious. The TeutOnlc pre-
pOnderance threatens presumptively the independ-
of all the neutral States This certainly true
and none the less true because the defeat of Ger
many and the preponderance would have brought
about converse state of things. 1t is safe
enough TO say, In a general way. that the ancient
equilibrium and the mutual jealousy of the
great powers was a negative advantage for Bel
GUM Holland and Switzerland, and so far
the French viii carry the sentiment of the world
with them, but to jump from this postuIate to a
specific arTaignment Of Germany for designs on Bel
GUM and Holland Is, TO say the least rather elastic
logic. If events should ever make it strategically
possible and politically advisable 10 overrun Belgium
Holland fear that scruples of justice OF gen.
eTosity would affect the Germans in the least. But
/ do not believe nor is there a particle of proof
to show, that movement of the sort is as
yet debated project. On the contrary, there
are obvious advantages in the present status
throwing as II does England the duty of defend
ing Belgium against French stTategists. The pecu-
liar evil OF the the subject is that it is con-
Quoted in utter disregard of moral considerations
"Why should we seize and annex State which is
of TO us - asks Germany a. If no question of
night entered into the case, and the argument from
utility the only necessary valid one. "Why
should we think of violating Belgum's neutrality
inquiries France, " when we are IN no condition to
enter upon new war17 The violation OF Belgium's
neutrality might, accordingly, be different thing
If the thing could be done safely. Meanwhile both
Powers continue the work of military reform France
IN the confidence that she Will soon have an efficient
army and Germany with confidence that the
arrival Of that epoch will see a renewal Of the
struggle. In the time little Belgium can
hardly look the spectacle with the keenest salts
faction.
Aside from the bitter discussion between French
aud German journalists, which may lead al any
expected moment 10 something more serious, there
Is another subject that seems to me more critical
than any other. 1t is that of Luxemburg. Every