The Grange advance., 1874-09-16
Ang: Il: 4 would have indeed been

4 ny estf6iI % xdd 84f: 44hd
sons had differed, because they both
rest on the same sort Of information.
In fact the estimates are substantially
alike. :. He says :, 600, 600 acres at n 90
bushels to the acre; total, lOO, O,440;0OO.
l said 100000 at 26 bushels to the
acre; total. 93,600,000 bushels. The
difference is not material; but still be-
lieve am more nearly correct than
Mr.. Sanderson, from whom, however, l
venture to differ, upon matter in which
he is so we'll informed, with great diff
dence.
Mr.. Kains-Jackson' estimate is of
far different character and much wider
scope. He not only estimates the Brit
ish crop, but summing up that Of the
rest of the world, declares that the lat
ter will leave 88,O00,0O bushels of
wheat to sell, while the former will
need to buy but 64,000,000 to 72,000.-
600, predicts serious decline in the
price Of wheat, and even reckons how
much money (465, ,000, ,000) England will
gain by this decline.
FIGURES.
Such is the at present incalculable
number of conditions upon which price
depends, that L have always regarded
attempts to reach any definite conclu-
sions on this subject as lying far beyond
the province of statistics or political
economy, and considerably within those
of stock jobbery and humbug. Upon
this ground alone Mr.. Kains-Jackson' S
conclusions are open to so grave a sus-
picion of honesty as to appear unworthy
of serious consideration. But since the
New York Tribune, an authority in
the agricultural circles Of this country,
has seen fit, while quoting Mr.. Jack
sons conclusions, to give them as those
of an ''unimpeachable authority (1ri-
bune's editorial, Sept. q, and this
thoughtless and extreme appreciation
has found it's way into other prints, it
becomes necessary, in order to counter
act the false impressions which it may
prove the means Of conveying, to ex-
anime Mr.. Jackson's statements with
some degree Of critical attention.
First, as to his estimate Of the Brit.
ish crop, which he puts at ll2,00O,0OO
to 10000, 600 bushels. He gives no
quantitative bases CT acreage nor of av-
erage yield, as Mr.. Sanderson and
have done =; but quotes vague and frag.
mentary opinions from various local
newspapers ir England, and comes to a
bold but insuficiently supported con-
clusion Of his own, in a lump sum of
bushels. having range, from minimum
to maximum. of no less than 5000, 900.
Second, he bases the consumption of
the United Kingdom during the ensuing
harvest year, l874-5, upon a popula-
ton Of 32, 1000, 900, whereas, according to
British official tables, it was nearly 32,-
100000 in midsummer, 1874, and will
be considerably more during the year
to come.
Third, his es innate of the wheat
crops. consumption and surplus, of the
rest of the world, is based upon no
evidence which he ad1uces or refers to
or that is known to exist, He simply
asserts that "Judging from all accepted
present estimates, the United States.
Russia, Hungary, Germany. France
and Turkey will have an aggregate sur.
plus of 88,O0O,0OO bushels of wheat. -
noNsrRoUs ERRORS.
1t is needless to point out the many
mounstrous errors in this sweeping ipse
dirit. Two will suffice. As to tn:
United States, how can Mr.. Kains-
Jackson know the ':sccected present
estimate Of the wheat crop Of this
country when We don't know it our
selves? The Monthly Agricultural
Report for July, 1874, gives the aver
age condition of winter wheat at l04
and Of spring wheat at 96;
but who can tell so
definitely as Mr.. Kains.Jaekson
pretends what our accepted average
crop is, or still less how much the sur
plus will be! The census of 1870
showed : wheat crop Of 288,00O, 600
bushels, but the annual agricultural re.
port Of the same year. gave but 1885,
100000 bushels, while the reports
Of 1871 and 1872, although the popula.
ton and culture had meanwhile larqely
increased, gave but 231, 10000 and
25O,oo0,00O bushels respectively, and
that Of 1873 IS this day refused to be
communicated to the public bv the
Commissioner.
Ordinary finocular vision is no cir
cumstance to Mr.. kains. s.Jackson' $ in.
sight into the contradictory and sup
pressed statistics of our rather dynam.
ical than statistical wheat culture.
With reference to Turkey, Mr..
kains-Jackson, in his eagerness SEEM
lngly to ''bear' the London grain mar.
ke;, appears to have forgotten the terri
BILE famine which is now desolating that
country. But if Mr.. jackson forgot it
the London Times did not, for the yery
next day after it printed his letter, It
published an account from Constantine.
pie which set forth that from 5000 to
10000 people had perished from star