The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1873-09-27
The Critical State OF Affairs In
France.

The republic and monarchy under some
form in France hang suspended in the scales
of fate. Il Is still uncertain on which side
the balance will incline. While wavering in
this uncertainty some coup Tktat of the gov
eminent or of ono of the political parties, in
which the French have much experience may
precipitate crisis and cause the scales to kick
the beam. Let us glance at the state of affairs
and see what are the probabilities 1t seems
impossible that the present abnormal and pro-
visiOnal governmental arrangement can stand.
All parties admit that Monarchists of all
shades imperialists and republicans, regard
the actual government only as provisional and
of short duration. Hence the efforts of these
conflicting parties to try their strength. The
republicans in the Assembly, however, being
in minority, wish to appeal to the country
through general election. The majority,
which comes under the general term of the
Right, and which is made up of the legit-
mists, the Orleanists and the imperialists, ap-
pears to be intent on giving definite form of
government to France through the action of
the Assembly and the Executive, without ap-
pealing to the people.
As the time for the reassembling of the
National Assembly approaches the different
factions manifest activity, as if the solution of
this question were to be forced at that time A
meeting of the so-called conservatives-that
is, the monarchists- held at Paris on
Thursday to discuss the matter. About sixty
persons, our telegram says, attended, and
among them were Baron Decazes, M. de la
Rochefoucauld, M. de Kerdrel and Count
Daru. A confident feeling prevailed. Some
of the speakers claimed there would be q
majority of twenty at the next session Of the
Assembly IL favor Ct ths restoration 81 mon
sfchy. The republican members, taking
alarm from the movements and possible
action of the monarchists, propose. it is said,
when the Assembly meets, to introduce q
declaration against any Infringement of the
popular sovereignty, and if not adopted, to
resign their seats. Should this be the pur-
pose of the republican members the monarch
lists may be more disposed to make the issue,
having majority; for such An act Of abnega-
ton on the part of the republicans would
leave the course clear to the monarchists.
They would denounce the retiring republi-
cans as wanting patriotism and courage and
wishing to precipitate revolution, and could
pronounce the restoration Of monarchy with
out being annoyed by opposition speeches or
parliamentary tactics. The monarchists may
wish for such an easy way of getting rid Of
opposition. Still, if the monarchists have
clear majority of twenty, as they claim, the
votes of the republicans would be unavailing.
and might as well not be cast. We suppose,
however, the republicans would fight in the
Assembly to the last moment by their speeches
and through whatever privileges the rules of
that body might afford them.
Should the republicans, on finding all their
efforts to prevent declaration to restore the
monarchy futile, withdraw from the Assembly,
that would seem to imply revolutionary move
ments and an appeal to arms. It would be
terrible alternative, and might plunge France
again into the most frightful civil war. Ad-
hitting that the republicans are powerful in
the Assembly-that is, if they are in q minor
ity of twenty only-and conceding that they
have great strength in the country, especially
in the large cities, their efforts to overthrow
the Assembly and monarchical factions may
prove extremely hazardous. Though the act
Of the Assembly in restoring the monarchy
would be clearly revolutionary, that body is.
at present invested with the representative
creature. Conservative people, even if in
clined to republicanism, might dread the issue
and prefer submission to the dictates of the
Assembly to a. bloody civil war. Much will
depend-if, indeed, the solution Of the whole
question does not depend-upOn Marshal Mac
the Assembly, as is probable, and as he may
plead it is his duty to do, he being but the
creature of that body, the republicans would
find mighty power against them. The army
of France has been well reorganized, and is
efficient. Handled by such an experienced
gent movement would have; probably little
chance of success.
It is possible there may be found in the
Assembly sufficient number Of moderate
men, not committed positively either to re-
publicanism or monarchy, who might by
their votes, avert the issue which the decided
monarchists appear determined to make
Even then an appeal to the country for the
election of new Assembly might not be
voted, and in that case the uncertainty and
danger of provisional government would.
remain. Every way the political affairs of
France are in critical and dangerous con-.
dition. The republicans may we'll feel bitter
toward those who are intent on overthrowing
that form OF government which has brought
France through the severest trials No,
monarchy or empire could have done more, if
as much. Look at the condition France was
left in after the terrible disasters of the war
with Germany and the collapse of the EN-
pire. Although three years have not passed