, 1873-12-07
GAMBLERS FALLaCIES.
Curiol1s illustrations OF SUpcratttfon
Among E;t!t.cntctl Nscs..

From tho london Spectator.
Tho answer which VIC pub3,hli to-day To onr
correspondent OF last wHok WnO doacrIbel hls
gambling eSpo:icnoo Mt Sason- leaDai,ls in n
curious Illustration Of tho dept, to which COM
mon superstition ranches in cncato,l n1on. 1t III
popular but sety otrouoollA belief .hn. bccaHso
1t ih beforehand much moro 11nlitolY that 4
very uncommon cvo,,t-any tho accidental ti4.d-
Ing Of a sovereign III tho atroos-slioull II appen
OIL two dnyB In BucccsstotE. than tha: II H;innld
lappon once, therefore WHOM 1t llaa onco Imp
pened, It will DO mucll moro unll!olY for it to
happen tito frat time. Taovo is no fallaey which
enterH sI dorlor Into the public 1und Than this.
We havo known MN who had lost sosno-
thing valuable ono day in ilIolr wail',
60 60 ta os Tr1n Min quite IT, N eaay mind tho noxt,
uhlIaelY tnat tley should llaso hl,ch a n,iHfor-
tuno two da;n running, that it's OCCURRENCE ,i,s
day before snssss l,a conaiaerol as1 Insurance
against It's happening; again. People sonlc;lmea
doubtodly nn unllchy fro insurance company
dreads fire. Yot wo doubtir even all illsllf-
ance-ofco directors aro quito frco from the falao
impression thnt run of ill-luck a.al,st
luck has alroaly takon place than it would
ba II the prosperity for ycnrA bacli lad been .n.
c!oudcd. Proverbs like ''It's d long Iaue that
las ITO turning" which nre quite trto in sl,elt-
se!vcb, aro 'nihanpcd by the naturally defect
iyo logic OF THO human mind, Into Arguments
why snnu might fairly expect the turning to 10
noaror If lo Lad nlroady walked far without
ono. tlal it would bo reasonable to Bup-
pose 1t II Ao lai only very short b,t Of
htraight limo boliud him. II oao person
in family. slips on Il pioco Of ora,go-po | on
Monday ind breaks lis leg, tho other members
Of tho family will sometimes &C, out on Tuesday
with moral certainly Of not ellpping on pieces
Of orange.pcel anu bl caking their less, because
1t would bo 30 nbsurdlY unlikely that such MI
ovont should happen twice running and gam
btorH hab1tually net on tint extraordinary con
fuBioiI OF ideas, as modified. however, by
anotlor strange superstition Which Ia pro-
cBciy as unreasonable, namely, TINT tIlero
ia q secret tendency now and thon to
''rnAs" OF luck, 30 that, If for Two or ,hreo
titnos particular numbcr coucB up i'll eano
Of cllancc. they are half disposed to give For
tuue crcJ,t for having taken 4 caprice in It's
favor, and arc disposed to stoke upon it for at
least onco or tSico more. Or COURSE nil thcso
notions arc equally Erouudloss. II is, no doubt,
qt,lto truc that it ia much moro improbable lhas
you will anl q sovereign iu tho strcot two
days running than on ono singlo day; but
tho reason why 1t ia moro improbable Ii
that the chance Of two intrinscally improbable,
aud yet quite independent, events happening in
succession. Ia compounded Of Tho two chances Of
each Of these oyollta happening and il therefore
mitch less tAcn tAn citlor cliauco separately.
But directly oao Of them has happened, tho pal.
OF that inCrobatlitY wIiiei. iy duo to tho tlrss
cyent Of tic two is already eurmou1stea, anu
,lo,o tho probability OF the Joint ovout happen-
Ing Ia precisely tho ea.uo as tho probability thas
the second would lappon alone.