Nashville union and American. [volume] (Nashville, Tenn.) 1868-1875, 1873-10-04

| to be change in this respect. The total
consumption of cotton by the mills of Eng
land in 1870 was 1,052,0OO,OO0 pounds;
in 1871 it was 1,15O,OOO,O 900, in 1872 it
was l,17OoO00O0, and the estimate for
1878 is 1890 100000 pounds. The esti-
mate of consumption by the mills on the
Continent Of Europe for the present year
is S50,OO0,0O0 pounds. This will make
2,150,0O0,0OO for European consumption.
In 1872 the consumption Of cotton by the
manufacturing establishments in the United
States was 500, 100000 pounds. The Econ
onliSt estimates that this demand will be in
creased the present year 10 per cent, or
550,O00,000 pounds. This makes . total
consumption for this coantry and Europe of
200, 600, 900 pounds, while the Economist
estimates the supply at 2,850,O00,000
pounds; bat this estimated excess is based
mainly on the increased planting in the
Southern States. But all the indications
from the cotton-growiDg States point to q
smaller average yield this year than last,
SO that the aggregate viii vary but little
from the yield of last year. We do not
apprehend any such surplus as the Econo-
| mist predicts. Bat we look forward to much
larger yield of cotton than we have yet had /,
and in the meantime we expect consump-
tio1 to keep pace with the supply, as i. has
i DUhava hall 10
able to produce twice as much cotton as
we now do, we shall look for it to be man.
ufactured Just as it is now done, leaving very
little surplus from year TO year. There has
been demand, year by year, for all the
cotton the world has grown. and there is
every reason to believe that this demand
will keep pace with the supply, however
greatly it may be augmented. The in
creased scresge planted in the South this
Year, as indicated by the estimates furnished
the Agricultural Bureau, gives measure of
the capacity of the cotton belt for the pro-
ducsion of that staple. The area of lands
now Under cultivation is hardly more than
80 or IS per cent. of the area cultivated in
1S59-60, when the yield was 4,669, no
bales; and even in that year Of pos
porous planting there was much
land lying waste and uuoccupied which
might have been cultivated in cotton. And
when it is further considered the lands of
the Southern States never reached the yield
which they could be made to reach under a
more liberal use of fertilizers and more
reliable, thrifty system Of labor than that
which prevails, it would perhaps be safe to
estimate the capacity Of the Southern cot
ton belt at nearer 100000 bales than A.
100000. But can the production be in
creased, at least for several years to come?
The crop of this year, which, according to
the Agricultural Bureau, shows an acreage
thirteen per cent greater than that Of last
year, will represent the full capacity of The
available agricultural labor of the South
which can be devoted to the production of
cotton. The increase in the crop Of 1872
over the previous year was due to the fact
that the mass of the negroes then
found themselves reduced to the
alternative Of working in the cotton fields or
starving. This year The number Of negroes
in the cotton fields, driven thither by the
same incentive as last year, aided by the
spirit of speculation, is larger than it has
been since the war, and in view of the in
clination of the negro to seek other occupa-
tious, it is perhaps fully as large as it ever
viii be in the future. On the contrary,
there is reason to believe that the numberof
negroes engaged in cotton-groWing will
gradually decline, and If an increase of the
crop is to be secured at all, it will be through
white labor, aided by machinery, or Chinese
labor, which may be abundantly supplied to
the south, at least after the completion of
the Southern Pacific Railroad. The New
York World says with reference to this
very point:
The tendency of the negro race in the
South is to decline; the generation now
growing up promises 10 prove far less eff
Gent than the one now at work, and it be-
comes question, not whether the cotton
crop can be increased, but whether it can
be maintained at the present figure. 1t has
generally been supposed that the entire
negro population of the country was des-
tined to be gathered in the cotton fields, but
the indications are that this expectation viii
never be verified. The negroes who leave
Virginia 90 North and West as well as
q - l. \ Iof a
ity of those who 60 South engage in agricul-
tursl labor. Railroad building employs
many of them, and railroad building in the
South and Southwest will continue to en-
ploy fully as many laborers for the Dext ten
years as it now employs. The production
of lumber, and naval stores, mining, and
other industries begin to make large and in
creasing demands upon the labor Of the
South, 10 say nothing of the inVincible ten
dency of the negro TO shirk all steady work
and live by precarious employments about
the cities. Under these circumstances it is
annually becoming more evident that negro
labor cannot be relied upon for the entire
cotton production in the future, if it is to
be kept up to the present demands of COM
merce. In many of the interior and pied
mont districts, where the summer heats
are not excessive, aud where the climate is
in reality salubrious throughout the year,
negro labor may be largely supplemented
by white labor in the production of cotton.
Native ard immigrant white labor is gradu.
ally coming into the production, and this,
in conneeAon with improved processes of
cultivation, and the introduction of labor
saving machinery, may for many years off,
set the decrease in the negro labor. But
while the cost of production remains at the
present figure, it is useless to expect any
great or permanent increase in the cot'o D
crop. The markets of the world have all
the cotton they want at the present prices,
am the Southern planters cannot afford to
raise it for much less than Is or Is cents a
pound. If the cost of production could be
materi lily lessene1 in any way the demand
would soon rise in proportion to the dimin.