The New York herald., 1873-11-01
the POLITICAL BR0IL.
Calculation of the Likely Results
in the County.
The Anticipated Stampede OF
Democrats to McCool.
No Large Majority Expected for
Either Side.

forthcoming election, but In political circles there
ia no lack OF concern in the results. Not pollti-
clan In the city is Indifferent to what Is going on.
The control in the future OF the fortunes OF the city
government is the prize aimed at by both parties,
and vigorous efforts are being put forth to that
end. The county ticket is discussed, weighed and
bet upon freely In all quarters. The chances OF the
two candidates for Sheriff have the largest share
or interest for the politicians. McCool comes into
the race later than Conner (the Tammany candi-
date, but he goes TO the front with rush. and the
anticpations are that regular stampede OF demo-
craJs will be made in his favor and his election
placed beyond a doubt. The canvass Is fast becom-
ing question OF
PERSONAL POPULARITY
and organizations are more or less ignored Walsn
and Patterson Tor County Clerk retain consider
able OF party status, but on the judiciary ticket
there will be great deal OF cutting and scratch
ing. Lawrence, for Supreme Court looms up
largely Fancher appears to be the next favor
lite, and Van Brunt and Donohue follow In their
order. There is some concern In democratic cir
cles about Donohue, though the personal qualities
of the man are thought TO be AS popular and win
ming as those of any OF the other candidates.
Croker and woltman, on the Coroner's ticket,
will run wen, and are working hard.
THE LIBERAL REPUBLICANS
have endorsed Fancher and Lawrence for the
Supreme Court. The main part OF the interest and
discussion OF the judiciary ticket centres in the
candidates for Supreme Court. There IS no ques-
ton oil the popularity of Lawrence.
GETTING LAWRENCE OUT OF THE WAY.
prominent politician remarked, yesterday,
"Lawrence must be elected, II only to get htm out
OF the way. He stands in the path Of several pol
iticians who covet the Mayoralty Should Law
ence be defeated he might run for Mayor next
year, and that would not suit John Kelly nor
James o'Brien. The lawyers are anxious to get
him out of the way, too, for he absorbs great
deal OF practice so that interest and selfish
ness win work with other considerations
IN favor OF his election. Now Donohue
is just as good man as Lawrence
In admiralty law he has no superior. He is
liked and respected by those who know him, but
there is certain class OF citizens who object to
him just because OF his name and nothing else."
LITTLE PREFERENCE IN THE JUDICIARY TICKET.
Between the candidates for the Superior Court,
Mcneil and Spier on the Tammany side and
Spauldng and Dayton on the Apollo, there is but
little preference. The democrats object TO Van
Brunt, because if elected vacancy would be
created in the Court OF Common Pleas and II the
appointive system OF judges be adopted republi-
can would be selected TO I'LL the place for life
tenure. There is equal indifference about the
and Henry Howland, the Apollo selections, and
David McAdam and Henry Alker, the Tammany.
Democrats prefer the same objection to Hatch as
to Van Brunt. His election would create va
cancy in the Marine Court, which would be filled
by the appointment by Governor Dix.
THE DEMOCRATIC UNION,
under the inspiration OF Robert B. Roosevelt, have
resolved to establish boxes in all the election dis
tricts and supply a ticket for county officers,
which will embrace the names Of democrats Sc
lected from both tickets in the field, John McCool
and william Walsh leading Oh. Democrats who
are opposed to Tammany and averse to the al
lance ticket will thus have an opportunity Of
voting for democrats only, without being consid-
cred as supporters OF either Tammany or Apollo.
FALLING OPT IN THE REGISTRATION.
There has been falling on this year in the regis
traton OF something like 25 900 votes, principally
IN republica districts. In the Eleventh Assembly
district 1t is calculated the republican registra-
tion has declined twenty-seven per cent from last
year. There is similar decrease in the seventh
Assembly district The estimated falling OF
throughout the city is sixteen and half per cent
and grouping the eight Assembly districts which
elected republicans last year the loss in the regis
districts which elected democrats to the Assem-
bly, the falling on is fourteen per cent.
A CALCULATION OF LIKELY RESULTS.
The vote likely to be cast this fall will be ABOUT
11s,O0o. Last year the vote was, in round num-
bers, l35, 900, divided as lollows:-Havemeyer (re-
renee CTammanyj, 47,ooo. We fnd therefore that
the relative strength or the parties, as now di-
vided-namely Tammany on one side and re-
publican and Apollo Hall on the other-would have
been, on last years basis, as follows:-
fepmblcan 55ov0
Apollo Hall ~ Brien) 5oOUO
r.a,x Total Il ;xrsnce, 500
Majority for the union ticket lUO
Last year Mayor Havemeyer was supported by
the reform organization which has now dissolved !;
but Its members have been, from first TO last, op-
posed TO Tammany Hall. and hence II may be fairly
concluded that the large majority OF them will con-
tlnue to vote against that organization. Indeed
the Committee OF Seventy was always more or less
OF an impOsture, so far as numbers went and we
do not believe that its dissolution will have any
effect one way or the other on the result.
The remaining so-called reform organizations
are merely instruments for "strlkingn or
schemes TO advance some individual In
republicans proper out OF the reform vote. and
add these to Tammany Hail. we leave the repuD-
can and Tammany tickets with $4,000 each. This
lows
REPUBLICAN, Hayemeyer). er)....................5 so oco
Apollo dan to'Brien..... ................... 5000
Total 5000 800
any ouUU
Majority for the union ticket 81 90
oome persons estimate that the vote OF Apollo
mn nail M u lal ou put there Is very wide margin
ior decrease of the Apollo strength, and still
large majority Will remain for the union marty on
the OASIS OIL last years figures.
80 SOMETHING TO BE BORNE IN MIND
VIII % De DOrne IN mind however, that the regis
tIation Is smaller this year than last, and that
there will be comparative falling OF in the vote
But while there may be a greater loss 10 the re-
puDllcans than 70 the democrats in this decrease
1t IS very questionable whether that difference
will be sufficiently great to materially AFFECT the
results, as above stated. There Is, however
ANOTHER SIDE OF THIS ISSUE
10 be considered The vote which Havemeyer re
ceived last year embraced about 1900 reform
Votes which would have been given to law.
renee If 1t were thought he could beat
O'Brien. Now, II 1t be considered that the
republican vote proper oil this county Is about
5000, and that falling of OF sixteen and half
per cent In the registration has taken place, we
have the vote likely to be thrown at 81 000 add to
this q, 900 for Apollo, and the total union vote will
be $1,000. Deduct this amount from 1ls000. the
total likely TO be cast, and 1t leaves showing for
Tammany OF o., ,000 and majority OF 1000.
THE MAIN POINT OF THE CONTEST.
On the county ticket the only contest will be
between McCool and Conner for Sheriff. They are
both well equipped for the struggle In point ol
character and vide acquaintance. The fact OF
several organizations selecting Conner and Patter-