The Jeffersonian. [volume] (Stroudsburg, Pa.) 1853-1911, 1873-03-06
Probabilities"


the various commissions Of nature are be
ing reduced to science-certainly
though slowly. Some volcanic eruptions
are iouud to be absolutely periodical, data
are being collected wherefrom to collect
the yawning of earthquakes, and even the
seemingly intractable simoons Of the
Southern Ocean are being organized into
system. All nature is found to be the
servant of law. aud the student finds here
In a clew to the ultimate mastery of all
furies
The late terrible storm has stimulated
inquiry respecting similar freaks of eli
mate in Minnesota. but there are no rec
crds or recollections furnishing any par
/ allel whatever
Records have been kept at Fort Smell
ing for fifty years, but, although several
cold terms have been registered, nothing
approaching the severity of our last storm
has ever been experienced. A singular
1 fact observed in regard to extremes OF
| climates in this State is their recurrence
at regular periods Of about eight years
In raintall it is very marked. Our sold
| settlers" remember the great food Of
1881, when the Mississippi reached the
! highest stage ever known. Precisely
eight years after the high tide OF 80
came, when the maximum was reached
on the Sd of May, and two bridges and
large number OF logs were swept down
the Mississippi. Again. eight years later,
we had the food OF 1867, which carried
fifty million feet Of logs over the falls,
aud carried off almost every bridge, dam
and mill on the Sauk River.
The periods OF drought and extremely
low water occur regularly at almost equal
intervals between those of high water -
Thus, in 1865 and '66 (the latter known
as grasshopper Year,; again in 1868 aud
6i the severest drought ever known, and
| navigation to St. Paul almost entirely
suspended again n 1871 extreme low
water prevailed, and crops badly injured
by drought
These phenomena occur with the regu
larity of ocean waves. At regular per
iuds come Seasons of unusual rainfall
and, like the tenth wave, one is marked
high above all the others. and recurs with
regularity of day aud night There is
rhythm in all the forces of nature, and
we must keep step or suffer the conse
queDces.
None Of these things happen by chance,
but all OF then 10y rule. We have learn
ed the laws which govern the ocean, tides,
50 that we know, cot only ,chca to expect
them. but also which ones will be siroug
and which ones weak. 1t is not too much
to suppose that, with the rapidly increas
ing means Of observation, and the deep
| interest taken by governments aud scieu
fists everywhere in the laws Of climate,
We may yet learn to calculate with Ger
| tainty aud for for years in advance, what
years will be dry or wet ,chen We may
expect years of storm and cold in ,chat
years, Indeed, we may plant corn and
beans. and when, instead we may put our
tIust IN wheat and oats. that require less
summer heat 10 mature what years to
cut our logs on small brooks with certain
~ Of driving them out. aud achen we may
Gcrare of trusting all our logs iu the
booms Of the Mississippi
The cycles Of temperature coincide
nearly with lose o! rainfall in occur
renee and duration, but they fall little
later. The extreme Of cold happens some
what later than the extreme of drought.
The winters OF 1856 are remem bered
as the coolest ever known 10 Minnesota
previous to the present Again in 1868
very severe cold was experienced. The
first eleven days of that year were almost
duplicated 10y the last eleven in Decem
Der, 1872 But the great storm OF Jan
uary I, s and 9. 1873, is quite without
parallel. This is the great tide wave OF
the cycle. Probably its like will not be
seen again within eight periods of eight
years each-that, is, till 1887.
There is no science more exact in the
long run than that Of the probabilities
A betting man, who has mastered it, is
as certain OF fortune as he is to sqaun
der it riotously and rulnously when re
quired
Applying what we have seen in regard
to these climatic periods in Minnesota,
what are the probabilities
/. For series Of six or seven years
next to come, of mild aud moderate win
ters. but let all beware OF reck lessly tempt
ing the storms of 1890 aud 1881
2. That for couple of years we may
have seasons of average rainfall, gradual
ly increasing till 1878, when lumbermen
will do we'll to leave surplus logs in lakes
of very safe booms, and that, thereafter,
The season will grow dryer until in 1878
or 1879. wheD steam boatmeD may find
it advisable to abandon the upper river
trade to those who have not studied
chances -Minneopolis Tribune