The Charleston daily news. [volume] (Charleston, S.C.) 1865-1873, 1873-01-20
TIE ENGLISH COTTON TRADE.
Smith, Edwards & Co.'s Annual Cotton
Circular. IS,
LIVERPOOL, December 81, 1872. Il

LIVERPOOL, December 81, l872.i
We are sorry to say that we commence the
year with prospects of supply the reverse Of
favorable TO consumers. The amount OF COT
ton In stock 10 the ports OF Great Britain and
at sea I'D to latest dares is only 972, 600 bales,
compared with 1924 600 bales last year, and
to this serious deficiency OF 262. 900 bales we
must add $4,000 or perhaps 100000 bales less
held by our spinuers at their mills. When
the entire supply of Europe and America is
taken into account, the figures do not look 30
alarming, for the total visible amount iS q
236. 900 bales, compared with 2.262, 600 bales
last year, but as The stock In spinners hands
.s probably 25C, 900 less In all Europe than at
this time last year the aggregate deficiency OF
cotton known to exist is 100000 bales. This
Is most serious lookout when We remember
that we are comparing with year of very
short supply. 80 short that we could not get
through it without an average OF l03d tor up
lands, and It'd lor fair Dhollerah, along with
rigid economy OF consn nuptlon during the
fully obvious that the production of cotton
throughout the world has fallen back to that
chronic state Of arrear as compared with the
requirements OF consumption, In which it has
been since the outbreak OF the American war
In 1850, with the single exception of the year
1871. The question of obtaining an adequate
supply has been far more difficult one to
solve than was generally supposed, and We
are sorry TO say that even yet no clear light
can be thrown upon the subject. -..,r
The point We have to consider for the COM
Ing year is not whether there will be an am
pie supply Of cotton or not, for we fear The
iormer of these alternatives s out OF the ques-
tion, but whether the supply Will be enough,
with great economy and high tpricesto pnll us
Through the year, or whether our manulactur-
ing system will be again dislocated by strug.
Gle with famine supply and excessive, prices
of the raw material. The present price we
look upon as high, but not excessive; 1t Is one
that trade can bear without absolute ruin, but
at which a sound working profit Ia impossible;
1t will not, however, restrict consumption
materially, and we think We may take 1t for
granted that at l0d. for lniddling uplands, or
thereabeuts. there will be no systematic
'.short time" either 10 England or on the Con-
tinent. We must, therefore, provide at that
price for consumption In this country of,
abnnt 65 900 bales per week, comprising say
10000 American. .senl ,as .
There is still strange difference Of opinion
about the resulJ-of the American crop. The
favorite opinion 10 America has recently been
for total yield Of $500. .000 to $3.50, 600 bales;
but some good authorities do not think 1t can :.
reach $500 600, and believe that public opin-
ion is exaYgeratlng 1t just as l. did last year.
The great falling off 10 receipts the last few
weeks appears to iavor the shorter estimates;
certainly the figures last week (l06, 900 bales)
are alarming, but 1t Is explained IN America
that the rivers are unusually low, ana tnaGa
the spread OF an epidemic among the horses
and mules has impeded transport and delayed
the receipts unpaturally. 80 general is this
opinion that we are bound to believe it has
some truth. At the same lime 1t hardly ap-
pears to us sufficient to explain the short re-
cpIpts, and we must confess to an apprehen:
sion that this crop may prove Disappointing
like the lest one. We fear comparisons nave
been made too much with the monster 5 crop
OF 1901, forgetting that the yield That year
was quite extraordinary, and probably three
quarters of million above what even an Or
dInary good crop would have produced. We
do not, however, pronounce any secloeo
opinion on the crop question. We admit 1t
Is quite on the cards that the receipts may
largely increase In the spring and swell the
crop UP to three and three.quarter millions;
but 1t seems to us equally probable that the
result may only be three and halt millions;
and II The receipts keep small few weeks
longer, we shall incline to. put the crop at
three and half millions or less. These esti-
mates we mean to comprehend the whoie
ihat Ia now adopted as the American way Of
Let us See what supply England would re-
ceive on each of these euppostions. The con-
iinent is this year very large buyer OF Amer
lean cotton. Spinners there, as much as here.
are giving the preference to American over
Surats; the actual consumption OF American
there the past two seasons has been. about
$50, 900 bales per annum; this year we put It at
95O. 900 bales, OF which $4,000 bales taken
from America direct and 100000 bales from
Great Britain. The entire American consump.
Lion is unauim ously put by the best American
authorities at 100000 bales.
So out or crop Of f........... Bales..3, 760, ,OOe
There would go for Aneri-
ran conSnmD DtiOD ....l 200. O60 o.
For shipment to continent. $4,000
Leaving for England. 700. 600
OF which tor export. 100000
Leaving for home consumption and -
addition to stock. ,600,00O
This would OILY allow our spnners to use
80 900 bales per week aaad add 4Q, 000 bales 90
the very small stock With which We ehdsd =.
last season.
: We believe that this is the smallest quantity
with which We could get through the year
toIeraoly. The actual consumption Of Amer
can cotton this past year {allowiDg for reduc-
lion Of spiuners' stockj mas been about 2s o0o
oales per week, aad the year before "a, 800
bales per week. But If tho crop should be
ouly three and one.ha'i millions, the whole
deficiency OF ESQ, 900 bales would fall on Eu-
rope; (tor American spiRners will take their
full consumption at almost any price;l sup
DOSE u IO Ue QlNlu0u Iuc pIOpOs IlOu Va
600 bales deficiency to the continent and l60,-
900 oales 10 England, there would then remain
for our consumption q, 900 bales per week, or
| at the outside $4,000 bales, provided they used
I'D the little addition TO stock (40, 0,000 bales)
we provided for above. and ended next season
as bare OF stock as this last one. It is clear
| that such an inadequate supply as this would
| imply q year OF very high prices, we should
say above l0d. per pound. Last year our con.
sumption was much relieved by the enormous
/ Brazil crop; but this year the accounts are
| bad, the Weld Is expected TO be much less,
and II seems not unlikely that we shall re.
ceiye 200, 900 bales less from Brazil than last
wear, ana even that would require Iua aver
age crop compared with previous years.
The Egyptian crop promises best. Ehe re.
ceiots at Alexandria are enormous, say b00,O 600
cantars, or l00,0 900 bales ahead Of last year;
| but the best houses In the trade DO not look
for much ultimate increase, indeed, some OF
them say the crop will be less, and the bad
quality arriving Is taken to mean early ;ex.
laustion. We nave no opinion to o6er on this
subject worth putting forward. We think the
evidence H. 10 favor of a larger crop than last
year, which may partly make up for tie den-
cheney in Brazil.
From India " are realizing the greatest def.
cheney, That country was so completely swept
last year that hardly anything has been snip
ping since July, and the consequence Is tnat
our supply OF Indian cotton. which looked 30
large ill the autumn, IL last melting away, ano
We are threatened with positive exhaustion
of Surat cotton In the spring. A very Iatgo
proportion OF The present East lodla stoca ~ ~