The New York herald., 1873-12-11
PRESIDENT MACMAHOEs PRospECrs
The Coalition Of Conservatives Va the Nation,
Troublous Times Coming. qt rsN
PARIS, Nov. 27. 1874.

PARIS, Nov. ~. 1874
The election OF Marshal MacMahon to q seven
years. Presidency or the French Republic Ii an
event OF which the full significance may not have
struck all Americans. The first impression would
be that France was now assured OF seven years.
rest; but second thoughts will show that this I'm
prudent election has simply prepared new era oi
revolutions. Foreigners cannot anord co regard
such prospect with Indifference. France plays 80
noisy part in the worlds affairs that all nations
have an interest In seeing her quiet. and 1t Ia.
therefore, important TO examine what are the cen.
ditlons under which MacMahon's rule viii be inau-
gurated and what presages may be drawn from
these conditions
We may at once express the belief that mono OF
frances impending troubles Will come from
MacMahon himself. The Marshal is no genius, but
he is honest, and in his own stolid way viii do his
best to govern impartally. 1t may even
be said that II he had been elected for his seven
years. term six months ago his government
would have proved popular and strong; for, until
recently, MacMah0n was supposed to be dlsn-
terested soldier averse from party intrtgues, and
his name, consequently, mad weight and prestige
which placed it outside and above other names.
Unfortunately the royallsts have compromised
MacMahOn. Using his name as a oover to their in
trigues and arbitrary oficlal acts they have dis
being acclaimed by the liberal conservatives Of
France, has become merely the nominee OF q party
and, what is worse OF a disorganized and divided
party who represent only minority OF the nation.
The faction which has paced MacMahon In power
is. indeed, made up OF legtimists, constitutional
royalists, few B0napartists and some weak
kneed republicans all or whom are well aware
that If a general election were held at thls mo-
ment the members returned would, for the MOST
part, be thoroughgoing republicans, who would
choose Theirs for their President and not Mac
Mahon. These coalesced conservatives have,
therefore, combined to seat President In deibe-
rate opposition to the popular will; but how long
can their anti.liberal union last and how will
MacMahon be able to retain his power
If once that union should be brokenf new con-
stitution win shortly have TO be debated on, and
here the conservatives are almost certain to split.
Legltmists and consttutionasts have been able
to agree about President, but they will not keep
together on questions OF universal suffrage, the
composition OF an upper house and the lndepend-
ence of municipalities; whereas on all these points
the large republican minority will vote compactiy
from first to last What then II on any OF the con-
sttutional clauses the conservatives should be
beatens The President may dismiss his Ministers
and summon more liberal Cabinet, which would
hold together till the dissolution OF the Assembly;
or two things will happen: either the country will
vote in Its present mood and return an over
whelming majority OF republicans pledged to
distinctly liberal policy, by dint OF administra-
tive pressure the constituencies will be brought to
elect majority of royalists, who will instantly
commence intriguing again to restore . king. Bus
in either OF these eventuaities MscMahon's posi-
tion Will be most precarous; and he will stand
between the alternatives of resigning or keeping
his Presidency by an act OF vioence-that is "
coup d'6tdt.
For let us consider the first hypothesis. II the
next election should result in q republican tri-
umph the new Assembly will not be content with
such compromise as semi-royalist, semi.iberai
Ministry, but will insist on Cabinet OF its own
men-that Is, politicians like MN. Jules simon.
Greyy and Gambetta Now MacMahOn has de-
clared that he will govern only on CONSERVATIVE
princpes,n in other words, that he will not ac-
cept such Ministers as those just named. He
would, therefore, be compelled either to retire be.
fore the republican majority or to defy 1t; but in
the latter case he would be repeating the game
which Charles X. sought to play in 1880 and which
led to revolution. On the other hand, supposlng
q royalst Chamber to be returned, MacMahOn
would then be surrounded byhis own friends. But
these friends do not conceal that they have only
put up MacMahon as q stop-gap and that II they
could command working majority In the LegisIa-
ture their immediate object would be to restore q
monarchy. II the President submitted with good
grace to be thus Ousted matters might pass on
smoothly, but 1t Is lust possible that he might OBJ
ject to having his Presidential term cut Short and
thereupon strange things might ensue. With
the royalists and Bonapartists both hostile
to him there would be nothing LEFT
for the Marshal but to cast in his lot with the re-
pubcans; or relying for his support on the army
and on such personal adherents as he might have
in the Chamber, to rule in despite OF royalists i'm
perialists and republicans combined. This, how
ever would be prRtorianism. 1t would be the be.
ginning Of period Of military despotlsm and pro-
scription recalling the days OF Rome in her decline.
or OF Spain during the times when Narvaez, O'D0n-
mel and Espartero, turn by turn, seized upon the
government with their sodiery; and it would re-
duce France to speedy ruin. But to do MacMahOn
justice he is not the man to proong his tenure OF
onice by such means. Rather than come to war
with the royalsts he would resign but, this being
So IL Is obvious that, whatever be the results OF the
next elections, MacMahon's presidency will scarcely
last for tweyemonth after them. The Left Gen.
ire republicans who voted for the seven years term
the other day would have done well to reflect on
these things before they oolishly let themselves be
beguled into abetting the schemes OF the royaliss
Look at 1t which way we win the cleo
ton OF MacMahon means confusion unrest
and conspiraces without end. Appointed to
maintain order, the new President will live
amid perpetual disorder; and conservatives
who are attached to no particular king or pre-
tender but seek merely the welfare Of their coun-
try will soon discover to their cost that true con.
servatism would have consisted at this juncture in
electing M. Theirs. During his two years Presi-
dency NJ. Theirs showed that he could maintain
order while giving the nation iull freedom, and
his rule was popular in consequence. 1t was, In
fact, essentially the rule or honest conservatism
eq ually remote from despotism and from anarchy.
M. Theirs represented plain principle, thato
moderate republcanism; MacMahon represents
nothing but such oppressive and antiquated theo-
ries or government as the Empire bequeatned. II
Theirs had been restored to power repu bic anism