Lexington weekly intelligencer. (Lexington, Mo.) 1871-1887, 1873-12-24
aAHBLERs rALLAo1Es.

Ao answer Wu'ch We publisN &c.
day TO our correspondent Of las
week who described HE gambiingcx.
pericncc at Saxonles .Baius. Is . curl
Gus illustration Of the dcptbs te
which common supcrat,tIon reachc,
Ia educated ipcn. IL Il. 4 pdpna,
% very erroneous. bciiSf that be-.
causs, u iA4bcfcrchand much NOR.
Unlikely that svsSy ifnconimo;
event-say the accidental finding Of q
sovereign IN the strcst-shou!d hap.
Dcn two days In succrssion, than that
'it should Happen onre, therefore.
when II has once happened IL will b.,
much mo:c unlikely for II to harper
again at once than Il was that u
shotild happen the first time. There
is no fallacy which enters deeper into
the public mind than this. We hav.
known men who had lost soneihing
valuable one day in their walk, go on.
with quite an easy mind the next, or
the ground that II was antcccdentiy
so unlikely that they should hav,
such misfortune two days running
that its occurrence tho day before
must be considered against Its hap.
pening again. People sometimes
say that a burnt child dread. tho fire.
aud undoubtedly an unlncky lire io.
surnnce breads fire. Yet VIC doub
II all insurance Office di, ec,ors or.
quite free from the f,lse inpressio,
that run Of. ill-iuck against them ],
likely after such run Of il!-iuck ha
already taken place that:it would b.
If the prosperity for wears hnck ha,
been nnclouded. Proverbs like "it'
long lane that has no turning,
which are quite true IN hcmselvcs
are misappliSa In the naturally de
fective logic or tho human mind. int,
argument where man might fairl,
expect tie turning to be nearer il h.
had already walked far without onr
than IL would he reasonable 10 cup
posei it il he h6ii only,a very shom bi
of straight lane bei,iud him. II OH
pcrsoA in the family slips OH n pier
OF oranse-peel OH Monday and break
his leg. the,pthcr member of the fam
lily will sometimes go out on Tucsda,
with a moral certainty of Tot slip
ping on pieces Of ormye-pcel sn'
breaking their legs, brcausc II. woul'
be so absurdly ,taiiksly that such u
event should Lappeh twice. running
aud gamblers habi,nalIy act on. this
extraordinary. confusion of idfas, s
modified, however, by . anothe
strange superstition which is precise
" rs unreasonable. namely, tha
there is secret tendency now All,
then to "ruus" OF luck, SO that, il fo
two or threa times . particular rum
Dor comes UP in game Of chance the,
are disposed 10 give Fortune cradi
for having taken a caprice in II
favor, and arc disposed to stake upol
It for at least once or.twicc moro. O.
course, all these notions are cqnall,
groundlcss. 1t Is no doubt quit,
true that il is much more improbable
that you " i'll find sovereign in the
street two days running than OIL ont
single day, but the reason whv /. II
more impi obsbl" ia that the chance
of two intrinsicnliy improbable, ant
yet qui,e independent, events lsr
pcDing in succession, is compounded
Of the two chances of ca,h Of tics,
events happening, and is therefor,
much less than either chances srps
ratcly. But directly ono of them In
Lhappeued, the part Of that inproba
hility whicl, is due to the frs, even
of the two is already surmountcu
and now the probability of tho join
event happening is precisely the sam
as the probility that the secont
would happep alone,