, 1873-09-28

san1e conclusion. Mr.. De1}ow found the pro-
erosion foreik docadoa had boon MI avorago gain
of about ouo-thitl for ovory ton yoara mud Oh
this baslp Hct tho population for tho yoar
moo ut ,337, ,40s, or but fow Thousands lower
titan Mr. Watson's ostirnato. Tho consus for
1870 was ronrly as harl OIL Mr. Dolsow aB Oh Mr.
Watson. In ono cnao, tho ninth consns fell
short about 4,255 5,o55; In tho othcr, 3,77o,o01.
Evon II 1rr. Walker wero not shrowd enough
to forosce tho likelihood Of material Disturbances
in tho gtowth Of population, tho dsappointmonts
attendant upon tho calculation Of hts proaoces-
sors would lavo taught him to DO ohary Of any
absolute aystom Of calculating perspoolivo popu-
latiou. He admita that my plan Of calculations
that could DO adopted Is fallaeious ana apt to bo
reversed by influences tAat cannot DO determined
in advance. Tho falling OF in tho ratto OF in
oreaso between 1860 and 1870, however, furnishes
some basis for estimating tho probable docronso
during tho no1t thirty yenra Of tho ratio, which
remained about tho aamo for tho tirst sovonty
years OF our Government Tho increaao from
1860 to 1870 was about 1000, 900 loHa than 1t
would have boon had tho preceding ratio hold
good. or this, loss Of 1,705, 900 is directly at-
tributod to tho War Of tho Rebellion. That
Is, htr. Walker estimates this number to
DO tho direct lonscs by wounds or diseases,
through tho rotartlatton OF tncroaso in tho col
orod population by reason Of prirationH, OK
postlros, and excesaoa Incident to change Of
condition, ind tho check given to immigration
by tho existence Of war. To this muAt be added
tho reduction Of tho birth-rate by tho withdrawal
Of .ablo-bodiod men from tloir homcs, which, by
On interesting process, Alr. Walkor estimates to
hayo boon about $4,000. Together, thon, the
war cannot account for a decrease Of moro than
2,5o0,o00 out OF tho totnl loss OF 10000
in tho ratio Of progression. THO other
100000 that "turned up missing " must bo
charged to various influences that aro likely to
increase within tho next thirty years. Among
these aro tho changes from agricultural life to
manufacturing pursuits, from country to town,
from simple habits to tho fashion Of foreign
life. Thoso changes wil1 DO more decided than
eyor before from now on. A1r. Wnlker says:
As tho limo Of agricultural occupation draws closer
to tho great barren patns tho Older Western 8atea
change moro and more to manufactures and to COM
mcrco aa tho manufacturing md commercial COM
ninisics Of tho East become compacted as tho whole
population ten1a increasingly to fashion anu social
observance diet, drosst mud equipago become
and moro ardacia1 and n tho dotestablc American
yico Of boarding." making children truly incun,-
brances,n and uproong tho anctont and honorel III
Btituttons Of tho family c1tcns from city to city aud
fc1+ $t t,jofff
shall uoto steady decline in the ratio nf tho national
iucrcasn from dccalo to decade. but it would 10
merely m attempt atimposturo to that nuer-
ica data exist for determining, within eight ten or
tweyo milliona tho population Of the country thirty
years from tho dato Of the Inst census.
Without undertaking absolutely to determine
the rato that shall bo substituted for the old
ratio Of increase, lo hazards the Insertion that
tho best Of good fortune will hardly carry tho
population Of the country beyond $4,000, 600 by
tho close of tho century.
Curious persons may uae Mr.. Wa1kor's con-
Boryatiyo estimate to forecast tho probable pop
ulntion Of Chicago in 1900. Tho population Of
Chicago in 1860 WAS something over $4,000 In
1870, 1t was, according to tho Unitod States con-
sus, about 300,0 900. This is ratio Of increase Of
about 260 por cont. Tho ratio of increase in
tho population Of the United Statoa was 50
per cent prior to tho taking Of the last census.
Tho population Of tho country is now 100000,
in round numbers. h1r. Walkor, with superior
facilities for making tile calculation, estimates
that the population OF tie country will bo ,000,
600 in tho year 1000. As tic whole thing is puro
guosaworls, there is room for any amount Of
speculation on the subject.