The Wheeling daily intelligencer. [volume] (Wheeling, W. Va.) 1865-1903, 1873-04-16
Commercial PanIeS.

Professor Jevons, Distinguished Eng
lisb ststician, has been writing letter to
the Manchester Guardian, in which he
aIludcs to the predicted commercial
crash, and says; "There can be little
doubt that the crisis in the money market
might be much mitigated, II not avoided,
were merchants and bankers accustomed
TO look not so much 10 the immediate &C.
cidents Of the day as to the general ten
denotes and laws which may be detected
by an investigation Of past events: II
NAV now be regarded as q well establish
ed truth, which we owe in great degree
to the able inquiries Of Dir. W: LaneIon
and Mr.. John Mills, that disturbances In
the money market are more or less strict
" periodic, and that the great crises
tend TO recur after intervals ap-
proximating to ten years. NOW,
the last great crisis occurred In 1875,
and the previous one in 1857, 80 that we
are still three or four years short OF the
time when we should expect a real col
lapse. However extensive may be the
fixation OF capital which Is going on, and
however Legitimate the speculation
which is springing up, yet the bubble will
probably bear Q good deal OF expansion
vet before it bursts. A bank rate Of 1t
per cent has seldom, or never, been iol-
lowed Immediately by a general break
down, and We should anticipate for the
present premonitory and minor distur-
bance. should like 10 point out that
there is much reason for expecting q Ger
tain pressure during the ensuing months
of April and May. It can be readily
proved on the ground oil experience that
The dangerous times oil the year are the
two spFinR months named, and the
autumn months October and November.
Owing to the harvest operations, or to
causes not properly understood as YET
the autumn months arc the most
dangerous, but the spring months are not
without risk, having on several occasions
produced sharp panics, not to mention
the great one Of 1856. In paper pub
lished in the journal nj the London stotio'
TCaI Society for June, 1855, (Vol. xxx. p.
1857 l gave tables showing the average
variation of the bank accounts during the
wear. as deduCCd from the accounts OF the
wears 1915 to 1861. These tables show
that between March 90 and May ., the
loapablo reserve OF notes decreases to the
average amount of G2,250OO0, chiefly on
account OF the payment Of the dividends
but partly on account of other liabilities
falling due in the beginning Of the month
and quarter. The fall in the reserve Is
greater In this interval than in any other
part OF the year, the corresponding drain
being only about 100000 in October
and Gl,5O0,00O in July and January.
Since the time 1945-61) to which these
statements apply, the money market has
become considerably more sensitive,
owing to the extension Of trade and the
excessive economy practlCed by bankers
in the use of their reserves. Il, then, BY
accidental cause, such renewed demand
for gold in Germany, tho payment OF the
Alabama award, or any untoward COM
mercial event, the drain upon the bank
reserve should be augmented during next
month, there is sure to be more or less
severe temporary panic. The present
state OF the bank reserve Is no indication
of what 1t will be in the middle oil April
or the beginning Of May. Commercial
paniCs are partly due to constant and reg
ular causes, upon which we can calculate.
1t Is surely the part of prudent men 10
provide as far as possible against danger.
Gus periods, and thus mitigate the pres.
sure and disaster when they come upon
Nau