The Charleston daily news. [volume] (Charleston, S.C.) 1865-1873, 1872-02-26

MONDAY MORNING. FEBF
THE COTTON OUTLOOK.
ENGLISH HIEWS OF CONSUMPTION
IND THE COURSE OF PRICES.
Smith, Edwards & Co.'A Latest Circular.
Under date of January 81, Messrs. Smith,
Edwards & Co., of Liverpool, write:
The Manchester market during the past
month has responded lar more freely to the
advance in cotton than could have been ex-
pected. At the end OF December 1t was
| decidedly dull, but as soon as our market was
fairly started 1t Joined In the race, and quite
as sanguine o tone sprang up there as here.
| Very heavy contracts were given out for yarn
about the middle Of the month, at prices equal
| to the advance In cotton, and since then The
activity has been well sustained. and yarn
generally has gained for the month as much as
the raw material. Cloth has followed much
more slowly, still considerable business has
been done in 1t as well, and no stocks OF any
magnitude have been allowed to accumulate;
but the position of manufacturers Is very bad.
In The great Eastern department the margin
now existing between cotton and cloth, and
still more between yarn and cloth. is simply
rulnous. So long as prices Keep advancing
the pinch is not felt, as producers are selling
cloth made out of materlsl purchased at
cheaper price, but when bFltng market oc-
cura, aud cloth made out of dear cotton has to
be forced off, 1t is easy tosee that disasters
must follow.
We believe that the present strength of
Manchester is In great degree delusiVe, the
business doing is highly speculative, and
based upon the opinion that cotton famine
is In store for US, which will curtall produc-
tlon and 80 enable the present hlgh-prlced
cloth to be moved of In foreign markets 6e-
fore the collapse occurs. we e3pect OIL,
ferent feeling will prevail when II 1s tound
that no curtailment OF production neeo pe eA-
keep every spindle in Europe running full
Tune throughout the year. When It Is also re-
allied that the contracts now entered into
cannot be fairly closed BY the sale OF the
goods abroad until the prospects OF the next
American crop are affecting the markets OF
the world we expect great cnange from m Ine
present buoyant tone Of Manchester. Tne
nome trade Continues 10 be lCs chief supports
It is still very active and sound, In conse-
auence OF the prosperity Of the country, but
The news from the East Is ANYTHING but en-
couraglng. A feeble response has taken place
In India and China to the great rise here, but
prices keep quite below our level. and large
stocks exist In all the great Eastern markets.
The position OF fine spinneR Keeps very good,
and, therefore, we consider egyptian cotton
In strong position. .l..,-
Attention has been specially called of late to
the great consumption of cotton, aud the con-
ttnued large deliveries to the trade have given
rise to very extreme ideas OF the consuming
capacity of the country. Certainly the buying
of the trade for the last two or t1ree months
has been astonlshingly large. For twelve
weeks their taklngs from this port have aver
aged $4,000 bales per week. Of this business
n must be remembered that an unusually large
proportlop consists of small Brazil bales, say
l6, 600 bales per week; allowing for tnat, now
ever, we believe that spinners have added 10
their stocks In that time Isl, 900 bales, and as
thew they were we'll stocked before, they prob.
bly hold now as large quantity Of cotton as
they ever did In the history Of the trade.
The actual consumption at the present time
we would put at about 81, 900 bales per week,
equal In bulk to 10000, bales of the average
weight of last year. The consumption OF The
Kingdom In 1871 was estimated at 60: 600 bales
per week, of 1888 pounds weight. We put the
increase of machine power for the year over
last at five per cent, and were cotton equally
cheap we would expect similar Increase
of consumption, but 1t is we'll known that
many spinners are raising their counts OF yarn
considerably. This process always taxes place
when cotton Is dear, and has more Important
effect Than is generally known 10 llmitlng con,
SUMPTION, We do not believe that the actual
use Of cotton will be greater this year than
last, If the present scale o. prices continues.
At periods OF imitation like the present the rate
OF consumption is always exaggerated, and
when the subsequent reaction comes, the trade
holds of 30 long that opinion veers round 10 q
surprising manner. We believe that our spin
ners hardly ever held greater stake In cot
ton than they do now, for they own large pro-
portion of the amount afloat and on shipooard,
and their Views are ecorrespondinSly sangulne.
Previous eXpertence has often shown that thls
ia dangerous basis for the market to rest
upoa, and conclusions as to CONSUMPTION
| made at such time are often falIaclous. an
| agitation Is now going on among the opera
lives 10 reduce the Time OF LABOR 10 hltytSa.
hours per week; at present they work ratner
under sixty. Should this succeed, II Will ma
| terIally reduce consumption.
The prospects of our market at present are
viewed BY the public almost entirely through
| the medium CT the American crop. Puollc
opinion ha, settled down generally to lower
estimates than prevailed month ago. we
should cay that three aud quarter millions ls
now the laYorlLe opinion on this side the Al
lantic. In America there Is still nearly as
| much difference as ever, estimates varying oil
the Way from three to three and half mil
| lions: but we should think that the average
| lies about midway between these points,
There Is nothing Conclusive Ia the receipts up
| to the present Time; they are large enough to
be compatible with a crop of three and hall
millions; but 1t is generally believed that
yery rapid decline will now be witnessed, and
as we will compare with seven weeks o.
las. 600 bales on the average, last year, 1t IL
thought The deficiency will BIZ 30 striking as tG
keep up a strong current of speculation ana
push prices higher. Most people expect I'D
| 10 be reached for middling Orleans, and some
| look Tor higher rates. Attention Is fixed OF
the great decrease in the supply OF American
| cotton, and the extreme reluctance OIL the
1 trade to substitute East Indian; and u IL
argued that even at present high prices there
will be little or no dim!nution 10 the use
We do not agree In these opinions, and we
think The present scale Of prices dangerously
high. We have no doubt that as the year sd
yances the consumption will turn more on tht
cheaper kinds of cotton, as 1t has always done
before under similar circumstances. The
present margin between middlng Orleans AM
fair Dhollerah is Sd per lb, In place OF q
which would be about The proportion OF lormel
wears atthls season, and if that ls not sut1lclpn
| to force Surats into consumption the marg!E
will widen further; but one thing Is certain
viz, that all The cotton that comes to Europe
will be worked up sooner or later, and I'M
real question is what will be the aggregate