The Republican journal. [volume] (Belfast, Me.) 1829-current, 1872-06-20
DEMOCR

| DOUBTFUL STATES.
California. New Hampshire, )
| Connecticut. GOhiO, %
| Florida, 3Oregon. 3
| indiana, Il Pennsylvania, 90
| Louis iana,
The total number of electoral votes will
be 3G6, and o majority, 1874. In the esti
mate we have above given, the division
of the votes is as follows
! Democratic, 15S
| Republican, ITO
| Doubtful, SO
From the present outlook, we think
nearly all Republicans who are in the
habit of making close estimates, will adj
nit that we have placed in the Democratic
column only those States which will be
| likely to vote for the Baltimore nominees
in November. On the other hand they
will admit that the nine States in the
doubtful column are too close to be placed
with safety in the Republican column.
In our Judgment, Pennsylvania, as she
always has heretofore, will this year,
again prove the key of the whole position.
As she goes in the Gubernatoria} election
next October, so will the doubtful States
so will the Union, 90 in the Presidential
election in November This view we will
endeavor to make clear by reference to
the past.
OF this remarkable pivotal State it has
been saying for two generations: ''As
goes Pennsylvania, SO goes the Union"
This saying has for its foundation some
thing more than accident something more
| than mere condolences. The nature Of
her population and geographical position
make her pre-eminently an average and
an index State. 1t is & fact, that ever
since the Government was formed, no
President has been elected by the people
without the vote OF Pennsylvania. She has
voted every time for the successful candi-
| date, except for John Quincy Adams who
was chosen by the House of Representa-
tivps Not only has she voted uniformly
for the successful candidate, but the result
of her October vote has uniformly had a
powerful controlling influence on all
doubtful States
| In 1874, the contest between Polk and
Clay was most remarkable 1t was in
| Pennsylvania that 1.-THE heart Of the bat
tie burned" Every voter in the State was
most rigidly canvassed. Every voter was
dragged to the polls At the October
election the Democratic candidate was
elected Governor by 4 1877 majority. Up
to this hour New York had inclined to
Clay, but this small Democratic majority
in the keystone State turned the scale
the other way, and, three weeks later, the
Empire State gave Polk 5000 majority
and elected him President Had Penn
sylvania that year voted in October by a
majority, never so small, for the Wing
candidate for Governor, both that State
and New Y DIRK would inevitably have gone
for Clay in November.
In lS4S, there was third ticket in the
field which made the contest between Cass,
the Democratic Candidate, and Taylor
the Wing candidate, exceedingly close
and doubtful. Again Pennsylvania be-
came the battle ground. Every inch OF
her territory was fought over In October,
the Wing candidate for Governor was
chosen by about 5000. Up to that hour
New York had been critically close. This
result in the Keystone State, however, de-
cded the day. In November, New York
gave Taylor 1000 plurality and Pennsyl-
vania 1880, and he was elected. Had
either State gone for Cass, he would have
been chosen.
We pass over the election Of 1852 where
Pennsylvania had the same controlling
influence, and come to the extraordinary
contest of 1896, where she again vndi
Gated her character as the keystone OF
the Federal arch. All persons over the
age Of thirty must remember that most
exciting campaign. The Democratic can
UltilC WIS DdllcS IbuC1ltIliu, anu the NE
publican, John c. Fremont. In October,
the Democratic majority in Pennsylvania
was less than 5000. Small though it was,
considering the great vote thrown, it was
yet entirely decisive of the great Presi
Dental contest Three weeks later she
gave Mr.. Buchanan a majority over both
Fremont and Fillmore and her vote elect
ed him President.
The election of 1860 we pass over as the
opposition to the Republican party was
divided into three factions; as also that
of 1861, in which only the Northern States
voted In both instances Pennsylvania
voted for the successful candidate.
In the October election of 1868, the Re-
publican majority was only 9,677 in a
total vote of over CSC, 900. Yet this small
majority was decisive of the campaign.
1t carried with it close and doubtful States
enough to have elected Seymour
The lesson, then, that the election his
tory of Pennsylvania for aperiod of seventy
years, teaches. is this Whichever way
she goes in October, be the majority never
so small, that way she goes by largely
increased majority in November, and the
influence of her vote is to carry with her
all close and doubtful States in the Pres-
dental election.
We apply this lesson to the present cam