The New York herald., 1872-10-30
An Estimate for Grant of
1850 Majority.
Kernan's Majority Put
Down at 1000.
Seneca County as Revolutionary Centre-The
Light in Which the Regulars Now Regard
the Liberals-strcngth Of Liberalism
in franklin, St. Lawrence and
Clinton-A Blue Pros
peot for Greeley.

UTICA, N. Y, Get. q, 1872.
/ have, so far, failed to find any county which
shows such unmistakable revolutionary tendencies
as Seneca, through which happened to run last
week. When county which for twelve years has
given democratic majority ranging from two hun
dred and fifty up TO five hundred, and more nearly
the latter than the former figure at every election
shows disposition to abandon its traditional moor
ings the fact is significant; it certainly worthy
of note, II 1t be not altogether prognostc Of demo-
cratic defeat Seneca county has a voting popula-
tion to-day Of e,2oo. In 1868 it gave four hun
dred for Seymour and Blair, while all the counties
surrounding it recorded majorities for Grant. Mr..
Baker, OF Seneca Falls, who, as canvasser on
the republican side has had opportunities Of know
ing how the vote is likely to go, says that this
year Seneca county will give small majority for
Grant. On the other hand, Mr.. Stowell, OF the
RereiHe, democratic organ, anticipates about the
usual majority for his side, say 300.
81 acEF Ges IN ONEIDA COUNTY
the republicans are claiming over 5000, though
they were happy with less than half that
majority in 1868. In Otsego they put the figures
for Grant ct l, 100 majority-a speculation in which
have no faith whatever. as l have reason to
know the liberal republican strength in that quar-
ter is much under-estimated. There is growing
disposition on the part of the regular repub
licans with whom l have held conversations
within the past few days to over-confdence In
their own strength. They have begun to ignore
the liberals altogether as being mere c0rpOral's
guard, and they put the figures of their majority
up as high as fifty and eighty thousand. At Rome
met Colonel Tod Clayton, OF Otsego-a good, sound
republican, but tribe given to exaggeration-and
having reminded him that the previous week, at
Herkimer he was willing to coincide In my view OF
the result and say it was doubtful at the best, he
remarked that his mind had changed since he got
back from New York city. He said things were SO
perfectly arranged down there by the Police Conn.,
DAVENPORT TWEED AND o'BRrEN
that he had no longer any fears about the State.
On the contrary he thought Grant ought to carry it
by 81, 900 majority.
Now, taking ali the republicans have conversed
with from Oswego county to Oneida, professional
and business men, while a prep0nderance OF them
express themselves confident OF Grants carrying
the State, no two agree about the likely number OF
taking in an estimate OF the liberals IN thirtythree
counties OF the State and making careful allowance
reckoning up the democratic detection and the re-
suit OF the meditated coup d'etat in New York CITY,
Ishonld say Grant will carry the State by $4,000.
These are the figures left
AFTER A LONG CALCULATION
an equally extended survey OF the field gives the
state for Herman by, Ia round numbers 1000 votes
The latter will run ahead of Greeley through the
whole middle tier, from Utica west, and his pull
on the Catholic democratic vote OF New York will
cOunterhalance his losses among the liberal repub
licans in Seneca, Onondaga, Cortland Chautauqua,
Cattaraugus and Steuben. In each OF these coun-
ties there Is an element OF opposition to Herman
among the liberals, but the democrats almost Alto
gether win go for him, and the stay-at home demo-
Gratis being stronger than the liberals, will efectu-
ally counterbalance Kernans loss among the Gree
ley order or republicans
HERMAN CoNTRAsTED WITH coNKLING.
have been in n0wise astOnished to find Frank
Herman SO popular in this county and Roscoe Conk-
ling without hold whatever on the regards Of the
draws q crowded house; but SO does Ben Butler; Butler;
yet neither is particularly cherished as abeneiactor
OF his race Herman, on the other hand, holds
place in the hearts OF the people OF this region that
even the passions OF great political campaign
cannot disturb; and he moves among them win
quality Of character as much removed from haughti-
ness as 1t is from low and corrupt selfseeking.
SPECULATION AMONG THE COUNTIES.
The papers here keep up a lively fire on each
other from day to day. OF course they are as op-
posite as the poles In their estimates OF the can
side as the other / have advices from Clinton,
Franklin and st. Lawrence that the liberal repub-
lican strength in the three counties after being
duly estimated, numbers 1850. Clinton is put
down for $50, which win give the county to Greeley
by several hundred. Franklin has liberal strength
day Of election Greeley viii come Within traction %
OF carrying that county also. There are some
stubborn democrats in Franklin and Clinton. DR..
Amos White, OF Plattsburg, tells me that he knows
At least twenty OF his democratic friends who will
stay at home, and that the stay-athome element is
quired from the Doctor If he thought these men
could not be persuaded to go to the polls by their
more active and intelligent brethren. He replied
II was possible in some Instances but there were
democrats in Clinton and Franklin upon whom the
persuasive eloquence Of the Angel Gabriel would
be thrown away; tnat they could no more be
brought to swallow Horace Greeley than TO take
dose Of strychnne.
Twas speaking at Oneida to Mr.. VIM. Ellis, of Che
mung, o liberal republican, who told me he had
made q canvass Of the best part Of the State and
places the estimate Of liberals at $1,000, which
would be equal to the loss Of 10000 to Grant and
would require democratic detection OF $4,000 to
overcome Mr. Ellis makes O large estimate He
puts down New York city for 1900 liberal votes and
gives the balance to the State. cannot agree
with him after all / have CLEANED from various
sources, and the conclusion still presents itself to
my mind that the State will be carried by trine
over fourteen thousand for Grant and about seven
thousand for Herman.