The Charleston daily news. [volume] (Charleston, S.C.) 1865-1873, 1872-01-20
OUR STAPLE ABROAD.

UUR OlAfLE ADnUAU.
REVIEW OF THE BRITISH COTTON
TRADE FOR 1871.
English Predictions as to the Future
Course Of Prices.
Messra. Smith, Edwards & Co., Liverpool
in their annual circular, make the following
remarks on the cotton trade of Great Britain
for 1871:
We may remark, further, that the home
trade department has been much better than
| the India and China department. Much oi
the strength of Manchester has arisen from
the excellent home demand, caused by the
ali over the kingdom, and this department
still keeps healthy; but the news from the
Eastern markets has been extremely dis
appointing for many months, the goods
shipped early In the year, when cotton
was second to third lower than 1t is now,
are barely covering, cost; and the great
rise that has taken place generally In cotton
values on this side has not met the falntest re-
sponse in the East, and, indeed, the China
markets are much lower now than at the be-
ginning of the year, with every sign of being
at last fairly overdone. If we were to look
merely at the Eastern trade, 1t would be Inn
| possible to understand the strength of Man
Chester, for in former years 1t was that depart
ment that gave tone to the whole market; but
| of late the home and nearer markets have rel
! atiYely increased in Importance, aud That to
such an extent as to overshadow somewhat
| the Eastern demand. 1t would be unwise,
however, to forget that this important element
of strength is wanting in Manchester at pres
ent, and, speaking generally, we rather fear
Z ho do 6oinr of O 10 ic oyhQt fnrnp6
In its character. and Is based more upon
the expected scarcity and dearness of the raw
material than upon real consumptlVe require
ments.
The consumption of Great Britain has In
creased In remarkable manner during the
past year; the deliveries show the very large
average of $4,000 bales, against $4,000 bales
last year, but no doubt the trade hold much
larger stocks, allowing them surplus of l00,-
600 bales, the consumption of the year must
have been so, 900 bales per week, OF which no
less than 5000 were American cotton.
This is an unexampled increase Of one year
over another, considering that last year was
one of full consumption, no short time being
worked. Undoubtedly large addition has
been made to the machine power of England
the past year. The late factory returns con-
firm this, and from these returns, and private
inquiries made, we incline to the belief that
the consuming power of Great Britain has In
creased ten to fifteen per cent. In the last two
years, and we would now put the full consum-
Ing capacity, with cheap cotton and profitable
trade. at $4,000 bales per week, including
$4,000 bales of American cotton, but we should
soy, with dear cotton and Improbable trade,
$4,000 bales would be sufficient estimate.
1t is surprising how this Increase OF spindle
power has been gained, considering that no
great addition has been made TO me mills SIN 10
the past two years-perhaps not many more
have been built than those burned down; 1t
would seem that much unapproprlated space
previously existed in the mills, which has now
been filed with machinery, and also much
old and useless metal has been replaced with
new. The demand for machinery Is still
strong, and the makers are deeply under con-
tract, and, therefore, we conclude that the
consuming power will increase further dur
ing the coming year. though we believe most
of the addition will be for fine spinning,
which does not involve large consumption
OF cotton. Besides the general tendency of
the trade Is to produce Higher numbers, and,
therefore, we do not expect that the delive-
ries will be go large as last year. Probably
if cotton keeps dear, they may be considera-
bly, less, and this will be more apparent if
spinners part with the large stocks they now
hold. AS already observed, the consumption
will depend very much upon the price OF cot
tween 3D.. and Iod., as an arH...ees. He.euss "
would imply difference OF at least 1000 bales
per week in the amount spun up.
In treating of the prospects of our market for
the coming year, we are happy to be relieved
from the necessity Of discussing the state OF
foreign polilIcs. For many years we have
either had great wars 10 disturb the course OF
trade, or heavy thunder-clouds on the horizon
which trifing Incident might at any moment
cause to explode. We believe. that both
Europe and America have now attained de-
gree ofstable equilibrium unknown In this gen
eratlon, and We look hopefully forward to
long period OF peace-admitting, nevertheless,
that no millennium Is possible while millions OF
men are trained to the art of war.
We can, therefore, deal with the question OF
future price exclusively on the ground of sup
ply and demand. The circumstances usder
which we open the year are just the reverse Of
those that prevailed twelvemonth ago. We
then expected an enormous crop In America,
now we expect small one; the world was then
very bare of both cotton and goods, now we
hold fair stocks of cotton, and the large pro-
duction Of the past year has fully supplied the
markets with goods; prices were then nearly
I'd. per Id lower than they are now, and yet
tending rapidly downwards, now they are sup
ported with great 6rmness at The high eleVa-
lion, and till the last few days the feeling was
strongly in favor Of a further advance; at this
time last year the future was discounted with
high degree OF caution, now 1t Is looked at
through The medium Of saDguine expectation.
we CnlQk III lQSSo IACLS WHICH we nave euu.
merated will be found reason for inculcatiDg
extra prudence In f0recastlng the future.
The great subject of controversy for several
months past has been the size of the Ameri.
can crop. We have already fully referred to
the changes of opinion on this point, and we
must add that even now there ls remarkable
diversity of views. We find the best authori-
lies in america differing to the extent Of half
million Of bales, for we should say that the
estimates of reliable men range all the way
from three TO three and ha'f millions. Look
ing merely to the large scale Of receipts at the
moment, we should say that the higher esli-
mate was nearer the mark, but remembering,
on the other hand. that the Agricultural BIZ
reau reports fifteen per cent less land under
culture, and knowing beyond all doubt that
the season has been poor one. and the yield
per acre vastly below that OF last year, We
should feel inclined rather to lean towards
the smaller one. Our present bias, on the
whole. Is for crop of about three and quar-
ter millions, or cay fully a million bales below
the last one.
The first impression is that 60 vast deficit
as this will create an extreme scarcity, and
many think 1t will lead to decided advance
in price, but several conntervailing circum-
stances have to be considered. Spnuers all
over the world are unusually well supplied;
the actual stock in the three great European
depots-Liverpool, london and HaTre-ls
370, 900 bales above last year. The amount
coming from India is much larger, and, at