The Charleston daily news. [volume] (Charleston, S.C.) 1865-1873, 1872-09-12
THE COURSE OF COTTON.
IN ENGLISH VIEW OF THE PROS
PECT.
Low Prices to be Looked for as the Sea-
SON Advances.
The following extract is from a recent cot
ton circular of Messrs. Ellison, Tibblt d Co.,
Liverpool, a house of high standing in the
trade, whose estimates and predictions are
always entitled to careful consideration:


very low Prices VIII pe Hituesseu ae ZIG eeooon
advances. -s7,-r
This anticipation is based on the expectation
that the new American crop will be equal In
extent to that of the season before last, when
the receipts at the ports and overland reached
1921, 900 bales.
There are people, indeed, who look tor even
a still greater yield, and the same people are
expecting Sd. per ID. for mlddllng American.
But so far as the known facts of the case
are concerned, there is nothing to justify these
seDguine views. The season has not opened
so tayorably as did that Of 1870, less fertilizers
havebeen used, and there Is less land under
cultivation, and with average weather from
this forward, neither reason nor experience
warrants the anticipation of even 4.000,OO0
bales, to say nothing of At to d millions. A
simple rule of three sum settles LDls.
The first column IN the s%ubjoined statement
gives the number of acres under cultivation 10
each of the past three seasons; the second,
the receipts at The ports and overland; The
third, the number of acres under cultivation
this year; and the fourth the probable yield OF.
the new season on the basis of the previous
70 Probable
z-S: 4-E .:-t-,1:g..' Crop.
Acres:s Crop: Acres: Is122s
ls7O-7I.. 6. sS5, 600. a, 26l 900. g, 1874, 900. "a, 10 900
ls'1-72. i, 745, Ooo. 2;S7c,ooo.. 8. s94, ooo... a,22l 600
The average of the first two years is 3,771.-
0O0; of the last two, s.6s5,0O0; and of the
three, 3,5ss,00O.
The estimate OF the agricultural bureau In
November, 1870, was $500. 900 bales. and In
the annual report Issued last gear 1t is stated
that fully half q million bales we're added to
the crop by the unexampled length OF the sea-
son, and that, i!.shadI the season been one OF
medIumlepgth,tsn estimate of 1900, 600 bales
would have been quite too. high"
If, under ordinary circumstances, an esti-
mate of 400, 900 bales would have been 100
high In 1870. when S,885. 900 acres OF land
were under cultivation, and The season down
to November had been highly favorable, it Is
quite evident that, with l91, 900 acres less OF
land under cultivation, aud with q season not
30 good, q similar estimate In 1872 is alto
gether excessive.
The public, however, having once made up
Its opinion.
For the Immediate future, there is, appar-
emily, Rplethora of cotton, but buyers Of use
full qualities know that the plethora Is only
apparent.
This will be more palpable bye-aud-bye, and
q general reduction Of crop estimates would
lead 10 very high prices.
Summers may avert an undue imitation by
increasing their proportiooate consumption OF
Surats. Indeed, If they had done this months
agoSiE iS doubtful whether middfDg American
would have risen above 10d. per pound. They
have, IN TACT, 0nly themselves 10 Diane lot Cne
late Initiation, for by persistently ignoring East
Indian cotton they gave on artificial value to
the produce Of American, and thereby encour-
aged speculation; and o repetition OF what was
witnessed q few months ago can only be avoid
ed By q material increase In the deliveries In
Surat. 60 far as the importers OF East Indian
are concerned, the present year has been one
round Of disappointment, and they will take
care next year not to bring the Bombay crop
to market at the same time as the American,
unless s~pinners can see their way very materi-
ally 10 increase the consumption OF the des-
pissed staple. AS q matter of fact, less cotton
will be shipped from india during the ensuing
than In the past twelve moHths, simply be-
cause the country has been swept OF all sur
plus stocks. 1s ~
This circumstance, together with the fact
that the Visible supply Is soc, 900 bales less than
at this time last year, will go q long, way to-
wards neutralizlpg theinf1uence Of an increase
of Loco, 600 bales In the American crop.
To give an Increase Of l.000,000 bales, the
yield will have to reach 1000. 600 bales, where
as, as indicated bythe official data given above,
the probability Is that the yield will not be
more than $3.50, 900 to 3,8U0,0 0 bales.
,v1sIBLE SUPPLY, kuaUsr 9, 1872 AND 1871.
The following figures include Liverpool,
London, New York and Bombay dates to Au-
gust 8, and Continental dates to August 2, ex-
cept that the American and Bombay ship
ments Of last week are added to the cotton
afioat for the Continent on the I'd of August: |