Macon beacon. [volume] (Macon, Miss.) 1859-1995, 1871-12-09

maps / can DTlnE InlS nome 10 you
more clearly and closely. Let us see
some of the Ovcr-esLimates that have
been made in cotton during the last
generation. Here is a table which |
got from one of the first authorities
in the land. The cotton crop after it
had all gone forward, and had been
delivered for shipment was found to
fall below the estimates in the follow
ing named years, the real crop of
Per cent.
1923 fell below the estimated crop ..,,o,..2j
lSS fell below the estimated crop "a a
lAltell below the estimated CrOp..-..,.....+j
lH3foll below the estimated crOp,.....,...,l5
lSb fell below thccStimHtCd crOpn........lJ34
lHs fell below the estimated crop...,........23l4
1853 fell below the estimated crop....,.......lS
1850 fell below The estimated crOp.,..,.,..."2la4 4
Average. ~.
These are not allthc erroneous esti-
mates that occurred during the period
Of thirty-four years. They are only
extreme cases; but they show that on
the average, every fouth crop is over
estimated to the extent Of more than
one-hfth. In other words-and /
wish you to mark this fact-that
through lack of what these resolu-
tions seek to accomplish for you, you
lost during those thirty-four years one
entire crop and throe-fourths of an
other; that is
YOU GAVE IT AWAY.
For in the above eight years, YOU
sold each crop on the assumption
that it was one-dfth larger than it
really was; and therefore you got it
for one-fifth less than it really was
worth. This | believe is the way
cotton planters generally would put
the case. 1t may not be quite the true
way, but it will answer for the pur-
pose of illustration, and serve to show
though it may give figures that are
too large that the sum total which
you lose through
ERRONEOUS FORECASTS
amounts annually, on the average,
to millions of dollars. Illustration,
with example, will make this clearer.
A crop while coming forward is, let
us suppose, estimated at 100000 of
bales, and the word is passed across
the ocean and circulated in all the
cotton marts of the world that the
crop is enormous, and
prices are pitched accordingly. You
sell, suppose, at lG cents; but by the
time most of you have sold at these
figures. and before much of the crop
has zone into consumption-though
most of it has gone forward-it is dis
covered that the crop is but 3,00O,OOO
bales, and up goes the price to 70
cents. Now if you had the means OF
correct estimates, and if the crop had
been correctly forecast at 5000, 600 you
wou,,d5 have sold perhaps at 20 cents,
instead Of le cents. The fluctuations
in commerce, the loss ~ producers,
and the expense entailed upon con
sumers are far greater and more
rrievous than those who have not
studied this subject are aware OF. 1t
extends to all your articles of export
| estimate that the cotton planters
alone of the South have from such
fluctuations during the last six years
only lost
THEL1oN'ssHARE OF $375, 100000.
That is in consequence oferroneous
estimates, and the lack ofsuch authen-
tic crop statistics as we now seek, the
have, received for their last
six crops millions Of dollars less than
thcv would have received had they
known before selling the actual
amount of the crops as accurately as
II was known after they were sold.
1ur total cotton production since the
war IS in round numbers 100000 of
bales; and the fucJuav,,cHtns IN price are
owing chiefly to the lack OF correcv
as to yield. Supposing
planters to have sold on the average
only halfthe crop ofeach year at the
lowest flgures;--then according to this
way of putting the question they have
lost on the crop Of 1855, 500, 900, 900; on
the crop of 1868, $H, 900, 900; 1867, $751;
lOO, 600; 1868, $4,000, 600; 1869, $780,
1000; and on the crop of 1870, $70,-
$1,000; total, $375, ,0O0, 900, or an aver
age of $50, 100000 per crop. Now I
that had this system of
observations which I now propose,
and which / advocated before the
war, been in operation, this extreme
fluctuation could not have occurred,
and farmers would have received
millions more from that single crop
than they did. Like fluctuations, as
I have already said, take place with
your other staples. l can give you
those for
WHEAT-1N LONDON
for the last eight ycars'-not the ex-