The New York herald., 1871-08-01

SuppOSlnG tne TWO parties TO mold their
ground In the States put down as democratic
and republican, the democrats would have to
draw six votes from the States set down as
doubtful to elect President. To carry Con-
necticut would accomplish that. New Jersey,
which has generally been democratic, and
which there is probability the democrats
will secure again, would give one vote more
than wanted. Texas would secure the cleo
| ton to that party under the circumstances we
| have assumed. Then there are the two great
States Of Pennsylvania and Ohio, which, to all
| appearances will be debatable ground. OF
course, either of these, even without Connecti-
cut, New Jersey and Texas, would give more
votes than necessary to elect democrat. In
fact, with either Ohio or Pennsylvania the
democrats could afford to lose two or three of
the smaller States set down In the democratic
column, as New Hampshire, Florida and
Arkansas. and still have votes to spare. But,
supposing New York, which is now democratic
throughout, should, through late events and
msmanagement, be revolutionized and 90 for
the republican Presidential candidate, there
would be still Pennsylvania, Ohio, Connecti-
cut, New Jersey and Texas to fall back upon.
Pennsylvania and New Jersey would make up
for the loss of New York. Ohio, New Jersey
and Connecticut, even with the loss both of
New York and Pennsylvania, would give the
election TO the democrats il the other States
should stand as placed above.
The republicans will have to secure sixty
four votes in addition to those of the States
set down as positively for the party to elect their
candidate. They would have to carry all the
doubtful States. II they should lose even one
| of the smaller States. that is, either Connect-
| cut, New Jersey or Texas, and yet carry
| both Ohio and Pennsylvania, with New York
| for the democrats, the democratic candidate
would be elected. If the republicans should
| carry all three Of the great States of New
Yora, Pennsylvania and Ohio there would be
little probability Of failure. Leaving New
York out Of the democratic column as we have
given II, and turning over the doubtful States
Of Ohio and Pennsylvania to the republicans,
the democrats would lack thirty. nine votes.
Admitting that they could carry the other
doubtful States-namely, Connecticut, New
Jersey, Texas and Nebraska, in all twenty
two votes-they would still have to draw seven
teen votes from the States ranged as republi-
can. Out of these the only three that seem
barely possible for the democrats to gain are
Maine, Mississippi aud Louisiana, which to-
gether give twenty-one votes. From present
appearances, then, the gain of either New
York or Pennsylvania, with the other States
classed as doubtful would give the republicans
the election.
II is evident, therefore, that the battle
ground will be in these two great central
States. One may save the democracy; both
would, In all probability, give them the elec-
| ton, while the loss of both would, no doubt,
| give the election TO the republicans. There
| will be some change In the electoral vote after
| it shall be redistrbuted on the basis of the
census of 1870, and the republican States may
| gain few votes, but the change az affecting
the relative strength Of the two parties will
not be great. IL may be said that the full
popular vote, which is generally brought out
In a Presidential election, was not brought out
10 the State elections Of late for members of
Congsess or local officers, and that tho sue
cesses Of the democrats do not show what the
vote will be in 1872. This Is favorite arru-
meut Of the republicans when they are beaten,
but II Is not logical. The democrats may gain
as much as the republicans when full vote Ia
! brought out All depends upon popular