Memphis daily appeal. [volume] (Memphis, Tenn.) 1847-1886, 1871-01-27
FlbAHCE AID TRADE.
OFFICE OF THE DAILY APPEAL, !
MEMPHIS, January 26, ISL /
PROBABLE COURSE OF COTTON,

ILa-11-L -AAAaA UT NcAADEu
smith, Edwards d Co, of Liverpool, in
their Annual Cotton Circular, say the
" fzvOrlte estimates Of the present Ameri-
can crop is 5, 81, 600 bales, against 3,t25, 600
Commercial CROP last year, and 2,26 900
the wear before. SOue writers 60 as high
s- four million, and q few still hold to
three sud 8 half million. No doubt the
present sale of receipts points TO g large
Increase on the last crop, but we are in
e.-ueI -othi1k public opinion e~Xsggsrates
this crop Just as lU moderated the last"
In this opinion most OF the readers of the
APPEAL viii concur, as also in the deduC-
Ilrus inside from tbs healthy nature of
the Lancashire trade, which Smith, Ed
wards & Co. seem 20 have good reason for
believing will continue throughout the
coming year, and that the consumption
Of 1871 will show q considerable gain on
1870 il the price Of cotton does not sd-
vance materially. We would not be
surprised" they say, " If the deliveries TO
the trade average IS 900 bales per week
for the coming year, against So 500 for the
past "a thus disp0sIng Of 200 600 bales
OF the surplus. About the Continental
consumption, however, il is much more
difficult 20 form an opinion; it has been
greatly reduced the past year on account
Of the war, probably TO the extent Of
10000 bales as compared with what II
would have been i'm peace Should the
war uubsppilv last far Into next year
there may es no increase N the dlmin-
iEhsd quantity taken this past year; but
We think the balance Of probability in
ellEeE the O-ls- wsv. We are IN hopes
thst the end Of this destructive contest is
not very far Of. and If It comes early in
the spring there will be q large demand
fC- q time 20 nh the void created. We
would expect, in that csse, a great in
crersH in the volume of exports, es-
peclslly iE-Bs we suppose. the Continent
gerz much less direct from America in
deed iU would not surprise us If, with an
early peace we exported 100000 bales
more than i--t yeEr-E8v s55 900 bales in
5 cad of 5Eg 900 bales. No doubt 10 Is true
that the exhaustion caused by the war
will be- felt most severely atterwsrd, and
we fear 10 viii be long before Francs re-
gsils prosperity after such az awful visi-
u6tiOn: but the demand for cotton clothing
u n necessity rather than a luxury, and
cannot be very greatly reduced, and 10
must he remembered that the great fall In
the price of cotton viii naturally increase
the consumption Of all ports Of the Con
tineut ECg affected by the war. Balancing
these considerations we incline TO think
the continent viii require more cotton
for 1871 than Tor ls70-Derhaps cOnsidera-
bIv mOre-sud therefore that great sur
plus Cf supply which we have shown 70
be available for European consumption
does not 10 reslity look so formidable
wien narrowly examined, and NAV. after
al. be absorbed without much difficulty,
IL prices remain moderate. The general
con fusion % which we come is that
American cotton al 81 per pound Is about
its natural level Of price. should the war
lac fsr into the next year 10 may drop
considerably below il, but q reaction
would be sure TO come later on, for II
prices a- the planting time rule below Sd
a less breadth OF land viii be sOwn,
planters will bold back the remainder OF
The crop, and the opinion viii gain ground
that next crop viii be much smaller.
These considerations scing on a healthy
state Of trade IN Manchester, would lead
20 a strong speculative movement; on the
other hand should prices run much over
Sd, we may expect 20 $50 heavy shipments
from india, and such 3 quantity Of cotton ]
Will become visible in the summer that a
downward movement may set in again. |
Altogether, . does not seem likely that
she market can vary very far in either di-
without being called to a halt"