New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1871-07-10


before voted for President Many of these
have not yet taken sides. and will be gov
erncd in their future politics by the rival can
didates and platforms presented by the two
parties respectively. Whichever party shall 30
nominate and resolve IA to satisfy the larger
number Of these new voters will almost GER
tainy elect its ticket. No wise man will pre-
dict the result until he has heard who are the
candidates and read the antagonist platforms
Nor will we lay much stress on the results
of intermediate State Elections, wherein but
two-thirds TO three-fourtbs of Presidential
vote is polled. This State, for example. gave
from thirty to thirty three thousand Dem
ocratic majority last November. when there
was very little cheating at the polls. BY
lavish outlay of money and an emo rmous abuse
of official patronage, the Democratic vote was
nearly all called out, while the Republican fell
at least sixty thousand below our full party
strength. Yet we polled far larger vote in
20 than in 63, when we swept our
State by nearly thirty thousand major
ity. We gave Gen. WoOdford 366,436
votes last Fall against 366,3l5 for Gov. FentOn
in 1866, when we beat John L. Hoffman by
1879. 1t was not by falling off of the
Republican vote, az is quite commonly sup
posed but by calling out of the Democratic
vote to an extent unprecedented In any but a
Presidential contest, that we were overwhelmed
last Fall and that unnatural show of strength
was made at an enormous cost. We appre
bend that our City's Debt is considerably
larger than it would have been but for that
Fictitious Democratic majority.
We do not know and shall not guess how
our State will vote in 1872. That will be de-
termined by the rival candidates and plat
forms. But we do know that she did give
Grant and Cofax in '68 more legal votes by
Twenty Thousand than she has ever yet
given for any Democratic candidate what
ever. We may be cheated as we were
then by reams of fraudulent Naturalization
Certificates and regiments of drilled re-
peaters and bogus voters; but we believe the
most righteous election act of Congress, at
which Hoffman shows his teeth so viciously at
every opportunity, will prevent any such whole
sale frauds as those which first made him Gov
ernOr in 1868; wherefore we say that the vote
of New York in ~ is yet to be decided
All calculations of a Presidential contest
based on preceding results are apt to prove
delusive. The elections of 1889 indicated that
John Adams would be rechOsen President in
1900; but he was MT. SO the elections of 1899
argued that Martin Van Buren, would be
reelected in 1910, when he was beaten out of
sight The Democrats had a fair prospect in
1868, if the results of recent elections had not
been set at naught by their insane nomination
of Seymour and Blair and the prepOsterous
platform on which they were presented to the
people: when these appeared, cool observers
SAW that they had fooled away their chance.
They may repeat that folly in 1872 but this is
not to be counted on. Burnt children wH run
into the fire, in spite of the prOverb; but they
often run the other way.
Blowing soap-bubbes often amuses children
and green politicians have a kindred liking
for forecasting the results of Presidential
Elections. AS they grow older, their faith in
their own prescience is apt to diminish, until
they fall at last into the conclusion that
is a lost art, and that last years
elections afford no safe criterion for deter
mining the results of next years. After Maine,
California, New-Jerscy Pennsylvania, Ohio,
Indiana, &c, shall have held their State Elcc-
lions in '72 you may begin to figure as to the
of the rival candidates for President.