Nashville union and American. [volume] (Nashville, Tenn.) 1868-1875, 1871-11-30


foIowinp named wears. The. real crop of
Ga Per cent.
1923 fell below the estimated crop. ...........25
16Ss fell below the estimated crop.
1910 fell below the estimated crop.
1913 fell below the estimated crop.
1916 fell below the estimated crop. .15&
l649 fell below the estimated crop............Z3A
1856 fell below the estimated crop. ..........l6
1860 fell below the estimated crop.
Average, 2lx.
These are not all the erroneous estimates
that occurred during this period of thirty
four years. They are only extreme cases
but they show that on the average, every
fourth crop is over-estimated to the extent
of more than one-fifth. In other words
and wish yea to mark this fact-that
through lack of what these resolutions seek
to accomplish for you, you lost during those
thirty-four years one entire crop and three
fOurths Of another; that is
YOU GAVE 1T AWAY.
For in the above named eight years,
sold each crop on the assumption that it
was one-fifth larger than it really was; and
therefore You GOT it for one-fifth less than it
really was worth. This l believe is the
way cotton planters generally would put the
case. IL may not be quite the true way,
but it will answer for the purpose Of Illus
tratiOn, and serve to show-though it may
give figures that are too large-that the SUN
total which you lose through
ERRONEOUS FORECASTS
amounts annually, on the average, TO mill
lions of dollars. Illustration, with exam
pie, will make this clearer. A crop, while
coming forward, is, let us suppose, estimated
at 100000 of bales, and the word is passed
across the ocean and circulated in all the
cotton marts Of the world that the American
crop is enormous, and prices are pitched ac-
cordingly. You sell, suppose, at 10 cents;
but by the time most of you have sold at
these figures, and before much of the crop
has gone into consumption, though most of
it has gone forward, it is discovered that the
crop is but three million bales, and up goes
the price to twenty cents. Now, if you had
the means of correct estimates, and if the
crop had been correctly forecast at three
millions, Won would have sold perhaps at
twenty cents, instead of sixteen cents. The
fluctuations in commerce, the loss to pro-
ducers and the expense entailed upon con-
sumers are far greater and more grievous
than those who have not studied this sub
iect are aware of. 1t extends to all your
articles of export. ! estimate that the cot
ton planters alone of the South have, from
such fluctuations, during the last six years
only lost
THE LdoN's SHARE OF 1875, 100000.
That is in consequence of erroneous esti-
mates, and the lack of such authentic crop
statistics as we now seek, the planters have
received for their last six crops millions of
dollars less than they would have received
had they known before selling the actual
amount of the crops as accurately as it was
known after they were sold. Our total cot
ton production since the war is in round
numbers 100000 of bales; and the fuc-
tuations in price are owing chiefly to the lack
of correct information as to yield. .Suppos
| ing planters to have sold on the average only
half the crop of each year at the lowest
figures-then according TO this way of put
ting the question they have lost on the crop
of 1865, SOC, 100000; on the crop of 1896,
! S44, 100000; 1867, $67,000,0O0; 1868, $780,
! 100000; 1869, S6S,000,000; and on the crop
of 1870, S7O,O00,000; total, 1915, 0OO,060, or
an average of S62, 5000 per crop. Now |
maintain, that had this system Of Observa-
| tons which | now propose, and which adj
vOcated before the war; been in operation,
this extreme iuctuation could not have oc-
CURED, and farmers would have received
millions more from that single crop than
they did. Like fluctuations, as | have al
ready said, take place with your other
staples. / can give you those for
WHEAT IN LONDON
For the last eight yeaTs-nOt the extremes
of high and low prices as in cotton, but the
yearly average-therefore the fluctuations
will not appear so great. The average price
per imperial quarter (eight buShels) was
AIS. 3D. for 1853; 40s, ID, for 1864, Ills.
| lOd., for 1865; 49s. lid, for 1866. But the
| hot Of flic
! (1S66) when the quality and quantity of the
| yield were approximately shown-that is
when the grain had mostly left the hands Of
the growers, the price went up to 53s. Id,
| and continued TO rise until it averaged 64s
| Id, for 1867; Cos. 3D., for 1865; ASS. 2d.,f
| 1869: 4Gs, I'D, for 1870. All your staples
will vary in price according to the crop, but
accurate information, such as is now pro-
posed, as to the promise and yield, will,
| with the aid of steam and the telegraph to
satisfy demands, tend nightly to forbid
speculation by preventing fluctuations and
maint aiming uniformity in prices.
| THE MACHINERY
For putting this plan into operation $50
far as this country is concerned-all ready;
all it wants is the gearing UP. You have
your signal office where weather reports are
! continually received by telegraph, and
whence telegraph forecasts are issued daily,
| and though this work is so new to officers
engaged in it, their progress so far is in the
right direction. You have also the Agri-
cultural Bureau, in the service of which re-
ports, embodying many of the facts and OBJ
servations required, are already made, or
might be without any additional expense.
Many Of the data which these two offices
seek to obtain, stand somewhat in the rela-
ton of cause and effect to each other, as,
for instance, a dry season and bad crops,
Your fields have the same area and soil this
year that they had last. Your labor upon
them is the same. Why is not the yield
the same? Simply because the seasons are
different.
A SPECIAL CROP REPORTER
should be assigned TO every district of TO-,
600 square miles in the States. 1t is his
business to travel over his beat continually
and put himself in communication with in
telligent farmers in all parts Of it, anC
through them, together with his own Obser
vations, to keep the central office posted by
regular reports (say monthly at first) as &c
, the state and promise of each one of the
, staple crops of his district. At the SAINT
time the meteorological observers in the dis
; trict would send forward their observation
: andreports in detail, forthe same period, alsC
, by mail, while the telegraph observers keel
up their daily reports, both as to matter anC
crops, This would give five crop reporter;
for Alabama. five for Tennessee, four fO
, Kentucky, and four for OhiO-and so on il
this country. In Europe, twelve for Grea
Britain, nineteen for France, one for HOl
land, one for Belgium, and so on. Thest
reporters would have their attention at frs
J going off, so as not to be lost in a wilder
ness of data, directed chiefly: in Alabam;
= to cotton and corn; in Tennessee to corr
and wheat and in each State and count,
! to its chief staples only. So far the plan i
, simple enough, and may be carried on
easily for this country by ITSELF
LABOR CONTRACTS IN SOUTH CARO-