Nashville union and American. [volume] (Nashville, Tenn.) 1868-1875, 1871-03-21
The British cotton Trade.

the British Cotton Trade.
Messrs. Smith, Edwards & Co., in their
monthly circular, dated Liverpool, March
1, remark:
The attention of the trade
is, therefore, directed more exclusively
than before to the question of supply, and
great establishment is felt at the extIaordi-
nary size of the American receipts. Pub
lie opinion has undergone further change
in the direction of large crop estimates,
and instead Of 81 millions being the favor
lite hgure--as was the case a month ago.
millions is now accepted as the probable
yield on both sides the Atlantic. Our best
information from America fully justifies
this view, and we think no other inference
can fairly be drawn from the figures before
Us. This age, fertile in surprises, has seen
no greater surprise than this extraordinary
recuperation of the Southern States from
the ravages of war, for the present crop
promises to be, with one exception, the
largest ever grown, and little short Of
double the crop raised only two years ago.
The whole aspect of cotton supply has, of
course, entirely changed, and all lingering
notions of return to scarcity, for this
year at least, must be abandoned. 1t is
now obvious to every one that the largest
consumption possible can be fully fed all
this yesr, and probably large excess o
stock remain over to be carried into the
following year.
A crop of four millions in America viii
pr, baby yield nearly three millions of ex-
port to Europe, which, with an increased
supply from India and Egypt, will furnish
&c ,oN IF hol ou
surplus supply to Europe over last year;
in other words, when the increased weight
of the bales is taken into account, about
% per cent. increase of quantity! We can
not believe that any development of con-
sumption is able 10 work up such surplus,
and it appears to us certain that Liverpool
must carry large stocks all this year, and
during the next few months, an extremely
heavy one. The prospects of our market
would be better than they are were Ameri-
ca showing signs of specializing on the re-
mainder of her crop, and rolling out her
supply slowly to Europe; but in place Of
this, the export goes on at as large pace,
relatively, as the receipts, ard it seems as
if our market will have to carry unaided
all the worlds surplus supply. 1t is very
difficult to say where our accumulation or
stock will end, but one million of bales
seems more than probable, and it must be
late in the year before any great reduction
cf stock will take place. Possibly India
may deliver her supply SO slowly as some
what to compensate for the rapid shipment
of the American crop; but we doubt this.
A far larger number of steamers are en-
gagged in the trade than last year, and a
much greater proportion of the crop will
come by canal, and though the natives will
resist low prices obstinately for time, yet
as the various crops are large and early
much earlier than last season, we believe
the movement will also be more rapid.
From Bombay the clearances have been
very small for soma weeks, but many large
steamers nearly ready to sail, aud the ex-
ports will soon run considerably over last
year, while at Calcutta the exports for JAN
uary alone to Great Britain was 10000
bales, against II, 900 bales for the whole of
last year, and as the crop in Bengal is large,
and China wants little of it, having a good
crop Of her own, We may expect greatly
enlarged supply from that quarter. FroIn
the Madras ports a large excess is also GER
tain, as very muck Of last years crop was
detained In the interior. Altogether, it is
a decided increase over last year, though
| this increase may be reduced materially if
prices fall much below their present level.
In Egypt tie crop has exceeded previous
expectations as much as the American
| one has done, the best proof Of which is
that the import into Liverpool this year
is $4,000 bales, against II, 900 bales last
wear, while that from Brazil and the
other minor sources of supply is SO, 00C
bales against 50, 900 bales. 1t seems, there
fore, as if this was one of those excep-
tional seasons in which the crops in all the
| producing countries are good, and it re-
mains to be seen if the effect Of this has
yet been fully realized by the public.
We look upon present prices-moderate
as they areas not free from danger, and
we doubt whether any substantial rise in
our market can take place till lower level
| has been first touched and fresh starting
! point Tor speculation obtained 1t is pro-
bable that later in the season we will be
told that much smaller area is planted in
| America, and that a much smaller crop
will succeed this one. We Incline to be-
lieve that somewhat less will be planted,
and certainly far fewer fertilizers will be
used, and it is unlikely that such another
season as the last will occur again, and
therefore We incline to think that our
market viii have stronger background in
the second half of this year than the first,
but a long Intervening time of weakness
| must be surmounted before these distant
considerations can have much practical
yzaioht