The States and Union. [volume] (Ashland, Ohio) 1868-1872, 1871-09-20
Financial Prophecies.

From a respected friend we have
received a very pleasant letter, which
notices in complimentary terms our
plain or intricate, concerning financial
and commercial affairs, and then pro
roses a topic upon which he desires
especial information. He has received
a letter from. a cotton merchant in Eng.
land, asking him $50 find out from
the most authentic sources the pros
poets and probable price of cotton for
this season. and an approximate esti-
mate of the shipments to Liverpool
from this date to to the end of Deem
ber.' He judges that we must havea
great amount of information on this
subject, and believes that if We au-
swered the questions, we shonld do it
honestly and in good faith.
We have not, introduced this theme
to make light of the question, OF to
censure our correspondent for his meth
cd of proposing it, but TO record a
fact, confirmed by a lifetime of careful
observation, that all operations in
trade based on information and esti-
mates such as ere here sought, are
likely to result in a loss to the opera
tor. Not only in q majority Of cases,
but in a proportion nearly if quite as
great as nine out of ten, the dealer
who believes that he has acquired such
a basis for speculation will be totally
disappointed.
Many of our older readers will re-
call the famous merchants who had IA
good commission business in domestic
produce that gave them a regular an
nual income, but who, ever and anon,
went into statistical calculations to
show that the season would be special
ly affected by causes they had person
ally investigated and carefully traced,
and who thereupon operated largely
in the expectation af an enormous profit
If the facts set forth as causes proved
to be correct, the effect was w rare
ly in any given case such as they had
predicted. Grain would be scarce,
Hour won1d be wanted, only so many
bushels could be had, but SO many
barrels could be ground, only such a
quantity could reach tide water, and
prices must go beyond such a limit
The calculation seemed to be corr ct
and the statistics beyond dispute, but
the confident operator who laid out
his capital on the venture broke every
time. Some element had been left
out of the crucible, and :he prnduci
was not according TO expectation
Pork merchants tried to figure aftel
the same fashion (; they laid out state
ments of present stock; they estima
ted the price and quantity of growing
pigs; they figured nincely as to pro
duct and capacity they had a sure
thing as to the result and operated &C
cordingiy ; but it never worked to the
advantage of the calculator.
There were nice. little speculation.
in freight. So much produce to go for
ward grain in bulk, so much; grair
in bags, SO much I; flour in barrels, 81
much; pork, beef, resin, oil, &c, Sc
much-all as sure as fate. Then the
tonnage available was figured ant
found to be short. The result wa!
large engagements ahead at high fig
ures. Sometimes the room was want
ed and freights would be high, but the
speculator would not be benefited
Now the cargoes would be waiting and
the ships would be empty and heavy
demurrages exacted while the cargoeI
would not come. forward or be availa
BILE.
In all those cases, careful, prudeE'
dealers who followed market indica
tions, made money, but the man wht
had the season all mapped ont anG