New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1871-07-25
FOREIGN MISCELLANY.
JAPAN.

>,c,,,,,,, a, orrrtcs-PEOsPECTs OF CIVIL WAR.
Yvno .Iune 2O.-It is always difficult TO con-
~ "a observers at distance an accurate idea OF the
uncertain and abnormal condition of political affairs in
This setated country. For nearly year Fictitious
tronouity has rcigned, which has been accepted by
many as o token Of permanent peace. but which is wei
known by those who have the opportunity of examin-
inc closely into the ntrc Of the present admnisra
tion 20 De merely a superficial calm which may at any
moment be broken by civil war, of which the convu
sion of 1857 was only the fJrerunner The subject can
hardly lie important even interesting to the general
reader bat those whose inclination leads hom to follow
the desnes Of this strange land may be assured that
the situation is not materially changed from
that which YVES described somcsiX months ago in THE
tribune The same rivalries, the same ambitions are
still ennteuding supremacy and the schemes OF the
opposing factions continue TO he urged with caution
ana "a comparative secrecy which make it impossible TO
advance any positive opinion as TO the probable result
II would he useless revert in detail to the plans and
pprpos Of the rival claimants for the executive power
II has already been explained that the leaders Of the
powcrful house of Tokugawa-the family OF the former
Tycoons-are deity conspring for the restoration or
their ancient power; and that the whole force OF the
great southern daimiats OF Satsuma controlled by per-
haps the ablcs and certainly the most vigorous states
man Of Japan openly asserting its claim to the aoso
int sway Of the Government These facts remain I'M
changed
Innumerable rumors abound some fayOring one party
some the other but reliance can be placed upon any
Of them Ii is certain only that the Tokugawa party
conceal their immediate Intentions and that, Tor the
present the advantage lies wholly with cAtsuma, Hedo
il absolutely in possession OF the troops of the latter
and It is impossible to pass through single thorough
fare OF the capital without encounteTng host OF his
retainers while all the great avenues leading hther
from every part the country held by troops either
under bis command at his disposal. Moreover, his
aspirations have Of late been singularly favored by
accident Nabeshima, the daimio of Hgen, one OF his
strongest and most determined personal opponents and
ChOsiu On avowed ally, but a secret and dangerous
enemy. have died within couple OF months.
Among the Southern rulers he has, there
fore, no fear of active adversaTies-the others
being either poweress indferent and those Of the
North are in no condition TO sngly confront Saneay
him. The only danger he can apprehend Is from the
possible action of the TOkugawas and their adherent
who united, could at any moment command an over
wheming force, in spite OF their apparent overthrow III
But Satsuma is in possessiOn-a fact which goes
his authority good, and the TokugaWas 40
not appear prepared 10 bring their united stTensn mug
active cooperation against him. Nothing, or course, Is
certain excepting that enduring peace IS by no
impending since that Of 1867 obtained IT'S temporary
success only for while held back a1d can Ohy DO
ultimately averted by some combination OF chanceS
come hut the time OF its coming nobody can calculate