The Charleston daily news. [volume] (Charleston, S.C.) 1865-1873, 1871-08-08
The Cotton Prospect.


cotton market. All the Would-be CONNER
cial oracles outside the Cotton States are
strongly inclined to take the bear side in
their views regarding the great Southern
staple, and the World is no exception to
the rule. 1t joins the ranks of those who
are constantly advancing arguments to de-
press the. market, and who hope, and per-
haps believe that the price of cotton will
vet settle down to its ante. belIuna level.
This expectation is hardly destined to be
realized Cotton may be depressed at times,
but. with the altered condition OF things at
the South, it cannot be kept down. High
prices must be the rule, and low prices the
exception, for many years to come we
reproduce, however, the views OF the World,
because of the two important admissions
which they contain-frst that prices had
fallen too low during the past season, and,
secondly, that the surplus at the end OF the
present must, by the Worlds own figures,
be reduced about l, 100, 600 bales.
From the New York World
"a few weeks ago there was great excite
ment in The cotton market, attended By en- ad-
vance In price Of six cents per pound. a
great part of the advance then and all of the
excitement were due to the reports of reduced
planting, and injury to the crop by protracted
bad weather. Every point unfavorable to
future supply from the crop of 1871 was gross
ly exaggerated. Speculative opinions and
rash statements of individuals were donoly
fortified and supported by unwarranted and
absurd statements from the agricultural
bureau at Washington, which, in England,
were ignorantly supposed to have some value.
zone month of warm, dry, favorable wealth
er has passed, and behold what change.
Cotton has no friends is the expressive
phrase 10 the market. Prices have fallen about
two cents, without reviving faith; the decline
has rather Increased the tendency to further
depression. The crop story from every quar-
ter comes better and better, as If the writers,
repentant OF Jolly, would cause Its expression
to be forgotten. Low estimates of the crop
appear no more, and the making Of estimates
has ceased, as If everybody at last had come
To see that they serve no other purpose but to
exhibit the faulty of their makers. Yet
there are some apostle facts Of the past and
present that may be useiully considered. The
cotton crop of 1870 was very large, unex-
pectedly SO to the extent Of 100000 to 700, 900
bales, because OF the unparalleled maturing
season. The production of other countries
was up to its usual average. The great and
sudden excess in supply depressed the mar
ket value OF cotton In the spring to q range
only about per cent. higher in gold than the
average price at the same period in the three
years preceding the war. All other articles of
trade and manufacture Except wool, a kindred
artice) bore values 15 TO 60 per cent. higher
| than in ls5S-6o. Cotton had fallen too low.
1t was fairly entitled to an advance of lad. or
cents in gold, to place 1t upon level with
other commodities, irrespective OF any reduc-
ton Of supply, or any further increase of con.
sumption, as compared with the quantities of
1901. About one-half the advance in May
and June was then legitimate, (only too early
and Too rapid,) even with favorable report
England has had one year Of remarkably
good business in all branches of her cotton
trade. 1t has been good enough to start new
splndles for the ensuing year. England does
not set up new spindies, except to replace old
ones, In years of Improbable and disastrous
business like that which marked the years
1864 to 1869, and they are not well Informed
who talk and write of the great increase In
British cotton spindles in those bad years.
Now it Is changed. The impetus of profit is
given as in 1857 to 1861, and the increase for
the work of 1872 may well be large. On the
Continent the restraint of war is ended.
Spindles lately idle are in motion again, and
new ones are building, under the powerful
incentive of profits, which, good when cotton
was worth I'D, have become very good with
cotton at 3d.; and the reduction in price of
cotton, shared In the reduced price Of cotton
goods, has enlarged the market demand for
those goods.
"There is ample reason to suppose that, In
the average of twelve months from the lst of
October next, there will be three and one.half
to four millions more spindles in running order
than in the twelve months preceding. The
question will arise, will trade and consump-
tion take off all the production Of the spln-
ming power so enlarged? And most men,
looking at the abundance and cheapness of
money, and the ever-extending areas of trade,
will answer, yes, II not prevented by enhanced
prices.
"If so much be true. then the world wants
| for the next year four hundred thousand to
five hundred thousand bales of cotton more
than was required for the current year.
''Whence is 1t to come? Should the rest Of
the world keep its supply mp 10 that OF 1901
our crop would need to be not only A, 100000
bales again, but as much more as the increase
in consumption, or else the surplus at the end
of next year must be reduced by whatever
our crop fails Of that increase. We hazard no
estimates of growing crops, but we remember
that the extraordinary yield from the large
planting of 1870 was, 10 the extent of half a
million bales at least, due to such season as
may not be repeated for many years. We know
that the early start of this crop was under
conditions which, though grossly exaggerated,
were yet unfavorable. 1t is for every one to
discount from last years production SO much
Us to him seems good in arriving at proba-
bllty for this year. If the crop falls of GOO,-
600 bales-that is, if it turns out to be 3,7oo,-
900 bales-and the consumption in the world
shell he h00 00O bales more than this wears,