The Sumter watchman. [volume] (Sumterville, S.C.) 1855-1881, 1871-08-16
THE COTTON PROSPECT.

aspect of the cotton market. All the
would-be commercial oracles outside the
Cotton States are strongly inclined to
take the bear side in their views regard
ing the great Southern staple, and the
World is no exception to the rule. 1t
joins the ranks Of those who are con-
stantly advancing arguments to dapress
the market, and who hope, and perhaps
believe, that'the price of cotton will yet
settle down to 8 ante.5elzans level. This
expectation is hardly destined to be
realized. Cotton may be depressed at
times, but, with the altered condition of
things at the South, it cannot be kept
down. High prices must be the rule,
and low prices the exception, for many
years to come. We reproduce, however,
the views of the World, because Of the
two important admissions which they
contain-6rst, that prices had fallen too
low during the past season, and, secondly,
that the surplus at the end ofthe present
must, by the Worlds own figures, be re-
duced about ], l,l00,0 600 bales. Charleston
Neus.
From the New York World.l
"a few weeks ago there was great ex-
citement in the cotton market, attended
by an advance in price Of six cents per
pound. A great part Of the advance
then and all of the excitement were due
to the reports of reduced planting, and
injury to the crop by protracted bad
weather. Every point unfavorable to
future supply from the crop of 1871 was
grossly exaggerated. Speculative opinions
and rash statements Of individuals we're
doubly fortified and supported by uu"
warranted and absurd statements from
the agricultural bureau at Washington,
which, in England, were iguorautly sup
posed to have some value.
"One month Of warm, dry, favorable
weather has passed, and behold, what
change. "Cotton has no friends" is the
expressive phrase in the market.
Prices have fallen about two cents,
without reviving faith /; the decline has
rather increased the tendency to further
depressions. The crop story from every
quarter comes better and better, as if
the writer's, repent of folly, would cause
its expression to be forgotten. Low
estimates of the crop appear no more,
and the making of estimates has ceased,
as if everybody at last had come to see
that they serve no other purpose but to
exhibit the faulty Of their makers. Yet
there are some Apostle facts of the past
and present that may be useiully con.
sidered. The cotton crop of 1870 was
very large, unexpectedly SO to the extent
Of 100000 to 100000 bales, because of
the unparalleled maturing season. The
production Of other countries was up to
its usual average. The great and sudden
excess 10 supply depressed the market
value Of Gotten in the spring to range
only about 8 per cent. higher in gold
than the average price at the same
period in the three years preceding the
war. All other articles of trade and
manufacture (except wool, kindred
article) bore values Is to 60 per cent
higher than in lS5S.60. Cotton had
fallen too low. 1t was fairly entitled to
an advance Of lid. or 8 cents in gold, to
place it upon level with other COM
modities, irrespective of any reduction
ofsupply, or any further increase of
consumption, as compared with the
quantities Of 1901. About oue-half
the advance in May aud June was then
legitimate, (only too early and too rapid
even with a favorable report OF the grow
iug crop.
"England has had one year Of re-
markabIy good business in all branches
Of her cotton trace. 1t has been good
enough to start rev spindIcs for the
ensuing year. England does not set up
new spindles, except to replace old ones,
in years of Improbable aud disastrous
business like that which marked the
years 1864 to 1869, and they are not
vel. informed who talk and write Of the
great increase in British cotton spindles
10 those bad years. Now it is changed.
The impetus of profit is given as in
1857 to 1851, and the increase for the
work of 1912 may we'll be large. On
the Continent the restraint Of war is
ended, Spindles lately idle are iu mo-
ton again, and new ones arc building,
under .ie powerful incentive of profits,
which, good when cotton was worth I'D,
have become very good with cotton at
3d., and the reduction in price Of cotton,
shared in the reduced price Of cotton
goods, has enlarged the market demand
for those goods.
"There is ample reason to suppose
that, in the average Of twelve months
from the 1st Of October next, there will
be three and one-half to four millions
more spindles in running order than in
the twelve. months preceding. The
question will arise, will trade and con-
sumption take Of all the production Of
ahe spinning power 90 enlarged : And
most men, looking at the abundance aud
cheapness Of money, and the ever.ex-
tending areas of trade, will answer, yes,
if not prevented by enhanced prices.
,"If so much be true, then the world
wants for the next year four hundred
thousand to FIVE huodred thousand bales
of cotton more than was required for the
current year.
aHhsncs is it to comeY Should the