The Charleston daily news. [volume] (Charleston, S.C.) 1865-1873, 1871-07-26
THE COURSE OF COTTON
Predictions OF Prices.

from the New Orleans Price Currentl
If a diagram of cotton prices for the last few
wears should be made, the lines would be not
unlike the course.of bat In its flight after
food; 1t would be serrated by many very sud-
den zlgzags In its general lines Of ascent or
descent. These sudden spurts or drops In cot
ton price are generally explained or accounted
for to the satisfaction of some theorist of price;
but the fact carries an unappeasable chagrln
to the heart of the unlucky dealer. In truth
the subject of cotton price may not be reduc-
ed to any fixed principle, except that very
vague one of supply and demand. The SIM
plest way to treat this elusive principle is to
keep an accurate tally OF the growth and store
of cotton, and then predict that as the STOCK
the stock Of the 1st September the next year,
30 must the price of the one year be to
the price OF another. Those who assume
to represent the consumer apply the same
facts to their own predictions. Here then
begins the war between the factions called
the bulls and bears, each citing such circum-
stances as may affect the growing crop, or the
probable capacity OF the consumer to pur-
chase. It Is at last this proportion between
comparison OF current stocks which really
regulates prices; though, indeed, strict pro-
portion between stock and price Is never pre-
served, and never can be, because the term
demand means really capacity to purchase,
and this capacity depends upon as many and
as potent elements as the price OF corn and or
gold. The state of finance, the prevalence oil
wars or other eXpediencies, or decline IN
the rate of wages; these influences oil enter
Into the ability of the consumer to purchase,
for no matter how much man may need a
shirt, his demand is not felt In the cotton mar
ket he Is without the means to purchase.
1t Is the ultimate withdrawal OF these
casual customers from the market and their
reappearance, which occasions those abrupt
dips and differences in the ascending and de-
scendipg lines Of cotton price. The consumer
may not be Immediately and personally pres
ent, but his demands Is anticipated Dy the spec
ulator whose expectations may alter Oil De
disappointed. We may take an example from
the recent war between Germany and France.
The general food markets of these countries
did not advance materially, because the peo-
ple must be fed in the field or aG home, and as
the war vas short the waste was small. Wllh-
out food there could be no effective war, nor
domestic quiet. The clothing demand was SUBJ
ordinate, the people dedicated their wages to
the primary demand OF the stomach-the back
must walt. Hence the large mass of cotton
consumers wore scant, or patched cotton CLOTH
Ing. They were not represented by purchasers
In the cotton market The restoration OF
peace, and the return of the soldier to the
held or workshop, renewed wages. This large
class OF consumers acquired uSat1 lnS Po"0h
to purchase, aud again represented demand.
simultaneously with this restoration the price
of cotton fabrics rose. 1t may have been the
cause OF The rise. It must have had its effect.
The application OF this fact goes to show that
as there always must be sDme great Industrial
calamity occurring somewhere among the
civilized consumers OF cotton, 1t Is by no
means safe TO predicate an advance OF price
on q reduction of product, or vice versa. The
normal price steadily advances or declines
with the increase or dinunition OF the quanti-
ty, but the exceptional rates occasloned by cir
cI1mstances which no human foresight can
anticipate, render speculation In cotton per.
haps the most precariouS of all commercial
pursuits. It makes man's bank balance
shit like weaver's shuttle, and, while he
watches lbe swift mutation, his life Is wear
ing away, and his substance is whitfield down
BY inevitable brokerage aud interest OH capt.
tai. How much better for US that this ccttun
should be manufactured at home? The capi-
tai aud enterprise of our citizens would then
be occupied with permanent and profitable
business, aud the gain of the cotton dealer
here would not be based, as often at present,
upon the losses of his customer elsewhere.
Let US spin, weave and print QUE own cottons,
and thus monopolize all the profit which Is
now enjoyed elsewhere.