The Charleston daily news. [volume] (Charleston, S.C.) 1865-1873, 1871-09-08
THE GROWING CROP.
4 Blue view OF THE PROBIBLE
YIELD OF COTTON.
The Agricultural Bureaus Estimates.
fErnm the Macon TeleRraphl

The Agricultural Bureaus Estimates
From the Macon Telegraph
The teegrams inform us that the Charleston
| Courier and NEWS agree in estimating the In
| coming crop at from three 10 three and
quarter millions of bales. On what premises
| can such an estimate be based Inc crop
| grown in 1869 represented the product OF
highly propitlous year--a protracted season
and very liberal application of fertilizers,
and 1t was, in round numbers, S,l55, 600 bales.
| Run over the previous crops since the war. as
follows: 1868, 2,439.039 bales; 1867, 2,S93, ,993
bales; 1866, 2,0l0,774 bales; 1865, 2,lOS,9S7
bales. The aggregate of the six crops, pc
ginning with that OF 1865, and counting the
crop of 1870 at four and half million bales.
will amount to l6,9Ol,7 739 bales. Divide by
six, and we have an average yield Tor
six years of 2,Sl6,956 bales per annum.
Up to last spring no one pretended to con-
slider the crop grown In 1869 ian average
crop" 1t was universally conceded to have
been crop exceptionally good. 1t started
| out with fine stands, and 1t encountered no
misfortune worse than q drought In July.
| which caused some shedding, but was followed
| by propitious rains, and new growth that re-
allied a very productive fruitage through q
late fall.
That crop showed a gain of 7l5,9G7 bales on
the short crop OF the previous year. Nothing
but the unprecedented product of the last
year-the Joint result of extravagant fertillz-
inS-the infatuatlon of cotton mania, and
year propitious almost beyond example, could
have induced anybody to set up the crop of
| 1869 as an average crop. But last gear was
wholly abnormal. 1t showed product al
most double that of any previous year since
the war-the heavy crop OF 1869 alone except
ed. The average of the four previous years
being 2,3ll l,69S bales, the crop oil last year was
over two millions In excess. 1t was simply
I;a tbo ,,lf af v %
effort of productive energy, backed by twenty
five or thirty millions worth OF fertilizers, and
supplemented by the concurrence of every
natural condition for the development OF an
extraordinary product
In short, we fail to see any solid reason
whatever for making up an average crop out
OF the jUlnt products of the last two years, and
that is precisely what every estimator Is doing.
| Both were exceptional years In both the
product was stimulated by lavish applications
| OF guano; and both were favored with seasons
unusually propitious. Both crops had fair
start and a glorious contamination: There is
| hardly planter in Georgia who would pretend
to set up the product OF either or of both as his
own average crop on similar acreage.
| A liberal average, IL seems TO us, would be
made up out of the solid crop product OF freed
| labor since the war. And that this is not
alone our view, We have heretofore shown
| from the cotton year book for 1871. The edl-
| little less than year ago, says:
"The season of 1869 was highly favorable;
| that OF 1870 has surpassed It, In oil the his
| tory of American cotton growing the third pro-
gressively favorable season has never occur
red. A planting equal in area to that OF 1870,
may turn out less than 5000, 900 bales"
Assuming, then, that fair average crop
would be less than 3,00O,0O bales, what is
| there In the situation to Justify the eXpecta-
| ton of an average crop? We see not the first
reasonable ground to hope for It, The ac-
counts from every section OF the cotton grow
| ed, all predict deficit OF third to half. And
| as to these exceptions We may remark that
Texas is now sending forward bad reports,
and Arkansas has modified her antlcipatlons
very much within two or three weeks. We
see no chance for an average crop, and we see
| no possible foundation for three and quar-
| ter million estimate more rational than this
Assume that the last crop Of 4.5Oo, 600 bales
was ian average crop" Then knock of
about thirty per cent for diminished area, bad
stand, rust, worms, imperfect and generally
uupromising condition, aud you will come
down to the 3, $50, 900 bale estimate.
How the Estimate OF the Agricultural
Bureau Is Made.
From the Washington Chronicle.l
The July report of our agricultural depart
ment has excited considerable comment on
Il
| freely banded against the Integrity of that re.
port, involving corrupt colusion among the
| correspondents of the department In order to
raise the price Of cotton by deprecatlng the
| yield OF the coming crop. No evidence OF any
such collision Is presented, only slanderous
suspicious. This Is unworthy the dignity OF
| the organs OF public opinion. The mere tact
| that the department returns figure out results
so different from what were expected or de-
sired, is no reason for questioning their accu-
racy. Nor should the integrity of either prl.
vate or official men be challenged except upon
actual information received.
The correspondents OF the department, to
the number of about three In each county, are
men of the best character and intelligence:
| They are not acquainted with each other. and
hence have no special facilities for organizing
| such scheme Of collusion as Is here charged.
Their reports show not only diminished cot
| ton acreage, but also series Of disasters TO
the early planted cotton in some OF the States.
The delugiug rains of the early season In
many places stimulated the growth OF grass,
In the eXtirpaton OF which the plant itself was
| injured The subsequent severe drought
caused the forms and fruit of the cotton plant
to shed extensively. These facts are support
ed by the independent testimony of rewspa-
pers and correspondents in different parts of
| the South. The agricultural department was
very judicious in its guarded estimates, and
facts are multiplying in their support.
The Crops In the State.
The Marion Crescent says: Accounts have
| been received by us from all parts OF the coun-
| ty, an d, indeed, from portions of our sister
| counties of Marlboro and Horny. The best in
formed and most reliable confirm our previous
estimate CT the cotton crop, which Is placed at
| from halt to wo-thirds of crop. 1t cannot,
all accounts agree, be more than two-thirds,
and the general opinion seems 10 be that It
will not very much exceed half crop, as all
| the cotton which will be made this year will be
known as the July crop, or. TO explain. the
crop from bols which formed in July. There
seems 10 have been no August or September
crop OF bols. except on peculiarly favored
plantations. This injury was caused by that
cold snap in July, which we al the time feared
would be disastrous. Cotton picking Is rapid:
ly progressing and will be over by the first of
October. as three-fourths Of the whole crop
seems to be already opened. This may be re-
lied on, and merchants need not hope the ac-
counts are overdrawn as 10 the crop falling
short, because large quantities may come into
| marker earlier than usual. Before they are