The Sumter watchman. [volume] (Sumterville, S.C.) 1855-1881, 1871-08-02
THE COURSE OF COTTON.
ediction OF Price

Ii diagram OF cotton prices for the
last few years should be made, the lines
would be not unlike the course of bat
in its fight after food ; it would be ser
rated by many very sudden zigzags in
its general lines Of ascent or descent.
These sudden spur:s or drops in cotton
price are generally explained or ac.
counted for to the satisfaction of some
theorist of price; but the fact carries an
unappeasaSlc chagriu to the heart Of
the uplucky dealer. In truth the SUBJ
ject Of cotton price may not be reduced
to any fixed principle, except that very
vague one Of supply and demand. The
simplest way to treat this elusive prin
G.. lie is to keep an accurate tally Of the
growth aud store Of cotton, and then
predict that as the stock on the lst.
September of one year is to the stock
Of the Ist September the uext year, so
must the price Of the Que year be to the
price Of another. Those who assume to
represent the consumer apply the same
facts to their own predictions. Here
then begins the war between the fact
ious called the bulls aud bears, each
citing such circumstances as may affect
the growing crop, or the probable
capacity Of the consumer to purchase
It is at last this proportion between a
comparison of current stocks which
really regulates prices, though, strict
proportion batUecn stock and price is
never preserved, and never can be,
because the term demard means really
capacity to purchase, aud this capacity
depends upon as many and as potent
elements as the price OF corn aud of
gold. The state of 6nuDce, the prev.
aleDce Of wars or other expedicncies, or
a decline in the rate of wages; these
influences all enter into the ability Of
the consumer to purchase, for no matter
how mucl. man may need shirt, his
dcmaud is not felt in the cotton market
if he is without the means to purchase.
It il the ultimate Withdrawal of these
casual customers from the market and
their temperance, which occasions
those abrupt dips aud differences ia the
ascending and descending lines of
cotton price. The consumer may not
be Immediately and personally present,
but his demand is anticipated by the
speculator. whose expectations may
after all be disappointed. We may
take 40 example from the recent war
between Germany aud France. The
general food markets Of these countries
did not advance. materially, because the
pcop!c mus. be fed in the field or at
home, and as the war was short the
waste was small Without food there
could be no effective war, nor domestic
quiet The clothing demand was sub
ordinate, the people dedicated their
wages to the primary demand Of the
stonisch--the back must wait Hence
the large mass Of cotton consumers wore
soant, or patched cotton clothing. They
were not represented by purchasers in
the cotton market. The restoration Of
peace, and the return of the soldier to
!he field OF workshop, renewed wages.
This large class of coDsursers acquired
again the power to purchase, aud again
represented demand, simultaneously
With this restoration the price Of cotton
fabrics ress. It may have been the
cause Of tho rise. III must have had
its effect, The spplsation Of this fact