The Charleston daily news. [volume] (Charleston, S.C.) 1865-1873, 1871-09-15
THE COTTON QUESTION.

THE COTTON QUESTION.
IN ENGLISH TIEH--SUPPLE, con-
SUMPTION IND PRICES.
The Latest Liverpool Circular OF
Smith, Edwards s Co.
The following extracts from tie cotton cir
cular of Messrs. Smith, Edwards Co., OF L.
erpool. dated August 81, are full of interest for
our people:
The prospects of our market are az present
associated in q very close degree with the pro-
gress of the American crop and the opinions
entertained regarding its condition. The late
unfavorable rumors have revived the anxiety
of the trade, and they look with uneaslness
upon our tastdiminishing stock, and are ex-
tremely sensitive to all news reaching us from
America. There Is no doubt that public opin-
ion has lately veered round little upon the
subject of the growing crop. During July
and most OF August no weather accounts
reached US, except such as were highly laVora-
bic, and the idea became prevalent on ootn
sides of the Atlantic that the great damage
xundoubtedly done in May and June was al
most repaired, and that the crop was really
flourishing. The large decrease In the area
planted, Of which we heard so much in June,
retreated into the background; estimates OF
the probable or possible yield kept steadily ad-
vancing, till 81 to 81 millions became perhaps
the favorite figure.
OF late there have been several less favora-
bic accounts. The worm has made its ap-
pearance in some Of the cotton states, ana
travellers recently returned report tnaC tue
plant Is small and backward, and that the
yield cannot possibly equal or nearly equal
the agreeable product Of last year. They fur
ther report the reduced area is fully as large
as was stated early in the season, and LEAD us
to believe that very heavy reduction on iasG
years crop Is certainty-prooaoly mliilon
of bales, or about twenty-five per cent. I1ere
are others again who stoutly resist this view,
and hold that the crop is doing very well upon
the whole, and speak OF even 1000, GOO as pos.
sible, II the picking season Is as fine as last
year, and three millions and three quarters as
quite probable.
We are sorry to say that our Judgment upon
the whole does not incline to the more faVora-
Bile view. The various information put b"tore
us points In the direction of short crop: We
are convinced that there Is very considera-
BILE decrease in area under cotton, and we 90
do think the condition of the plant Is nearly as
good as 1t was at this time last year. Our view
Is that 1t will need -ery good season hence-
forth to give crop of three and half mil
lions, and should there be bad picking sea-
, or serious damage from worms. the posi-
4 would be very critical one. We DO not
mink that much harm as yet has been done
from worms, nor do we think that the conol-
tion has altered materially for the worst during
the past fortnight; but we are not OF opinion
that there ever was reason to take very Ia
yorable view of the crop, and we fear tnat tne
eefect of the good weather was somewhat e4-
aggerated. ..,.. uoo, ~ nm
checked, and it runs 80 heavily and persist
emily upon American that 1t Is matter OF GER
tainiy We will be pinched during October and
November. Indeed, 1t Is impossible that the
trade can long continue their present con-
sumption of about $4,000 bales weekly OF inat
inc export from now 10 the end OF the year
are kept down to 10000 bales per week, there
cannot be 900 bales in stock during NO
yember. This raises the question OF STOCKS neio
; by the trade, which was so much discussed
some time ago, and We are enabled 10 lay oe-
fore our readers statement on tnat sLolscs gsGI
that may prove interesting. About the Middle
of August We had inquiries made at all the lm-
portant manufacturing tewns, and returns 90
tanned of the quantities OF cotton held at tne
carriersi depots, and we found that the totai
was los. 900 bales, OF which 45, 900 bales were
held in Manchester. Il 10 this be added
about 20, 900 bales as a rough estimate OF the
many small points where there are lew scat
tered mills from which we could not OBTAIN
returns we may estimate with tolera6le exact
ness that the total amount held oy tne traoe,
exclusive of what Is at their mills, IS aoout
LAD. 900 bales, or little over two weeks con-
sumption. We look upon this as the surplus
stock, allowing what is kept at the mills as
fair working stock, and the quantity Is certain
ly less than was generally imagined, ana
proves that the consumption mas oeen e1.
tremely large. At one time we thought 81, ,0oo
bales a week full estimate, but we think II
must have rather exceeded that ngure, ana as
vet there Is no sign of abatement, but ratner
the opposite, as new machinery Is being last
put up.
tits evident, therefore, that consumption has
overtaken supply this year In q way tnat seems
scarcely credible, and MISUNDERSTANDING aaas
Europe will receive surplus OF more tnan
million bales over 1870, there will apparently
be hardly any surplus stock visible In England,
and not much on the continent, at the emu Oh
the year. The argument, therefore, Jumps 70
the lips Of every one, how can the consump-
ton be supplied next year @ tne sl Amerlcad can
It is difficult to answer 1t, except oy grantins
that consumption must be somewhat restrict
ed by high prices. At the same time 1t must
be borne in mind that the continent will not
have the same absorbing power next year. AN
immense vacuum had to be filled up this year.
All the stocks, both at the mills and CONNER
cial depots, were run out at the beginning OF
the year, and these have been most amply re-
plenished. so that only actual consumption
must be fed next year. Our own spin
ners and those in America are also un.
usually well stocked, and some portion oil
those stocks will no doubt be carried into next
year, and If American cotton is to rule at "a
i0d. per pound, In place OF 7aSd:, there Will oe
various little enconomies practiced, which
can scarcely be specified IN detail, but which
tell in the aggregate. Altogether, we are in-
clined to belie,e that q crop of three and
half millions Will carry US through next sea-
son without severe scarcity, though at pref
ty high level OF price; should the crop unfor-
tunatey fall below that, there will be considera-
BILE annoyance to the trade, and probably tor
some lime dangerously high prices, and It Is
much to be hoped In the interests OF sound
trade that there will be favorable picking
season, and no additional cause OF uneast-
ness.
Surat cotton keeps relatively cheap, and 1t
will likely do so for a good while yet; for spin
ners will orly resort to it slowly and reluctant
ly as they are driven of American from It's
dearness. 1t Is probable that most spinners
will pay an extra price for American for two
or three months rather than impair the present
high quality of their yarn or risk trouble with
their operatives. Later in the year we may
expect some revival OF export demand, and