New-York tribune., 1871-01-02
BUSINESS PROSPECTS.

our countrymen, and to base thereon some
antcipatOns as TO the business of 1871.
During the year 1870, the population of the
United States has been increased by fully One
Million persons. One-fOurth of this increase re-
suits from immi grafton; the residue from the
overplus of births compared with deaths.
Though we may not presume that every year
will find and leave us as free from fatal cpl
denies as 1870 was, we may reasonably calcu-
late that our population will be swelled by
fully One Million per annum in the average
for the next decade, SO as to be at least as
near to Fifty Millions in 1880 as to Forty Mil
lions in 1870. We believe the Census just taken
instead of the Forty to FOrty-two Millions
sangunely anticipated by some, VIII give us
more than Thirty-eight, but considerably less
than Thirty-nine Millions.
Our Agriculture has. on the whole, been quite
productive in 1870, despite the severe drouth
which cut short the crops of the Eastern
States. The South produced -Four Millions of
bales of Cotton in 1870 against Three Millions
in 1867 but the great war raging in the heart
of Europe has combined with the prospect Of
an increased product to depress the price so
that the growers viii receive no more for the
-Four Million bales grown i'll 1870 than they
did for the Three Millions grown in 1869.
STILL railways, steamboats,, ships, &c, will
profit by the increase, while our Cotton will
find markets at fifteen cents per pound which
were inaccessible while it sold at twenty to
twenty three cents. And we think the planters
will be persuaded to grow more Provisions
and less Cotton hereafter, and thus secure a
larger and surer reward for their industry.
We grew very large crop of Indian Corn
in 1870. The Agricultural Bureau estimates it,
on the reports it has received from every State,
at Eleven Hundred Thousand Million bushels.
averaging twenty eight bushels per acre,
against twenty-three bushels per acre last
year. Estimate this crop as worth fifty cents
per bushel to the growers, and its total value
is Five Hundred and Fifty Millions of Dol
lars whereas the COttOn-crOp, estimating the
bales at four hundred pounds each, and the
planters price at fourteen cents per pound,
will bring but Two Hundred ard Twenty-fOur
MilliOns--cOnsiderabl less than half the value
of the COrn-crOp. But Corn is too bulky for
export, save to very small extent;
and our Corn crop makes no figure
in the mercantile world as compared with the
Cotton crop. Though we have produced Two
or Three Hundred Millions Of bushels more of
Corn in 1870 than we did in 1869, il is not
probable that, hungry and needy as Western
Europe is, we shall export Ten Million bushels
of Corn But Corn is readily transformed by
the growers into Pork. Hams, Lard, Beef,
Butter, Cheese, and even Wool SO it is prob
able that all these staples will be more
abundant, and all of them but Wool cheaper
and more extensively exported, i'll 1871 than
E,,,r 1n,,1 Inv
more Western Corn in 1871 than in any
former year, because of the shOrtness of her
Hay-crop and this demand will give increased
business to our Railroads and our inland
Commerce.
We produced at least Sixty Millions of Gold
and Silver in 1S70-prObably mOre-and ex-
ported rather less than that amount, leaving
our imports of Specie as clear gain. We eSt-
mate that there are Thirty Millions more of
Coin in the country to-day than one year ago.
Recent developments of remarkably rich Silver
lodes in Colorado, New-MeXicO, and more
especially Arizona, justify the expectation of
an increased product of the Precious Metals in
1871, and still greater increase thereafter.
When the Southern Pacific Railroad shall
have traversed Arizona, we are confident
that our annual product of Gold anu
Silver will average Two Hundred Millions of
Dollars. We have no reason, therefore, to
deplore the expectation Of the Precious Metals,
since that does not now prove an unfavOrable
balance of trade. Cold and Silver have be-
come staple products of the United States,
like Wheat, Bacon, and Cheese, and will hence
forth be exported more extensively than they
are imported by u o long as our mines shall
remain productive.
| One year ago, Gold stood at twenty per cent
premium as compared with our Greenback
and National Bank cure ncy; now, it is barely
over ten per cent. This approach to the Specie
standard has been made without effort, and
against the wishes Of nearly half the American
People, who, being in debt, believed that they
could pay their creditors more easily and
cheaply in deprecated than in an appreciated
! Currency. But for the terrible War in Europe,
Mr.. Boutwell, would ere this have succeeded
in funding large portion of our outstanding
Skies at lower rate and thus brought us still
nearer to Resumption.
| The reported balance Of trade against US in
the fiscal year ending with June, 1869, was
about Seventy-fve Millions Of Dollars in that
ending with June, 1870 it was hardly Twenty
five Millions. Neither statement took into
account the accruing interest on our National,
State, and corporate Debts held in Europe,
which we estimate as but little less than One
| Hundred Millions per annum. True, many OF
our Exports were sold at considerable
profit so that the CustomfIOuse balance Is
not conclusive but the prevailing rates of
exchange and other indications leave no room
to doubt that we are still increasing our heavy
indebtedness to the bankers and capitalists of
/ the Old World
For we are constructing Railroads more