, 1870-08-07
FULFILLED PREDICTIONS.


here sre snauy reasons why every prediction e'
ucht to be Judged closely and seafchnSv 10 N
ee neither it viii stand its gsound OF not g
hether it can render good account OF ns =
nth, parentage. and general history; U
II ws are puzzled At tines about the aops- p
tnt fulfIneut Of predictions in popular alma. g
aes it IL worth while be arioG in vioM the Tact !,
hat, when very numerous productions are u
made, some of them are likely to BE- followed y
y whHt looks like fulElment. according to the u
aw Of probability "a law well known to actna-
lea knd Others engaged in computing tables
or life assurance, aunuities, ssh11lvofships,
ets. Every such aetusry rrcoicts, in :: sc1sn- =
ific tsnse; but i is always BY infSIsins tae =
probabilities Of tho future from the tc.cniass \
II the past. II LIE present the san. pa-
aouaena IN the next half century as i: did in v
Tho Last, then ont Of certain number Of I
parsons Of certain age q certain psopa.-
ton viii die in The next twelve months. 4
curious tit OF computation has been lde con-
corning the stupid superstition about thirteen
at tnlle. u. Quetelet, u distinguished BslSian
s.vant, haa computed that Of any thirteen
pe,sors, containing fair proportion OF both
sexes md different ages living At anT ona
time, it IL just about an oven chance THAT
some one Of them will die within twclSe
moEth4- II, therefore, one IN company Q.
nothing wonderful in it: but il aprcdicso1
states fhat 1t is because they ali sat down to
dinner at one table, OF it he asserts that the
charm il broken by making the uumbar twelve
or IONI1Efn 1tBEC24 Ok LQl1kcCut tuEA AC y |
bound to prove lis case. Besides. no account
IL ever taken Of sucl OF these aocial gather
iuGs Of tLiiteen as are not followed BY fatal
results. The believers in i'll omens arc silent
iE such cases.
This opens tho path to another aspect OF So |
called fulfilled predictions. As the Law Of
probability can account for email number o.
remarkable instances, go does it take nceount
Of the enormous preponde1ance OF csses "
which there is no observable coincidence At all
very pungent truth Is contained in the
couplot-
What Is hit Is history:
But what Is missed Is mystery;
applicable to the fact that every -lay believers
il, the marvellous do not initiate the actaaries
GessonlnS; u they ars g1eay interested il every
not tabulate those instances in which d
"miss" or failure occurs. Lord Bacon 50 ez-
actiy expressed this that he may hate been
for anght We know. the o1g'naso1 Of TIE say
l ipgi he eAys that one Eeason Why popular
predictions are believed ls, "Ih1s men MARE
when they h,t, and never m,1k when they
nlHs, - they 90 generally anu Ae apples this
observation to dreams as Teu AZ 10 pEed'e-
tons. .-,.-,-
for partners, and cut tue ioar aces, one each
- thing 70 strange that T. mishs wen havs
been maae the etouno-"o.k 1or some omen OF
good or lu:lueki yet y aanoits OF cacalatlon
that there IL propan!ity OF SUCH cotnci-
~ os4Su t;,nar. Trnae the nnm;ar = sanath,na
tremendous: for it Is computed that, II the
pt we ~ H. srI ~ t5,sr dar:
nen. eontiae Ie ,s, n eIa y. tnem ;.h,st
tnrn9'a ,1u 80 ,,n 10 t- acs. I sscnnd t;,oe M
eo'uns ~ sne % .oua 20 t;ts ssonu ora.. 1 ,ou
there il no magic about it. Take all tho hun
uteun npu :nons3 u pts4aetaon2 I, = uuuu!e
81 psuPnetac Auiau1ss, nv IL "eo1u oo ss1ause
Hoeca IL hoi!e 9t th10 uis tue u!a1h~
many ptetlct1ons come 51ue-tnAt Is. msnE
| prophet Is a ehseWd observer OF passing
events, or well acquainted with the pe:-
sonal pecullarlt'es Of those to whom tbs
prediction is intended to apply. This Wal.
J probably, the cage with Nadamoiselle Lenor-
, mand, who had n singu1ariy long reign Of
popularity iu Paris. From lI69 till 1876 she
was consulted by succession Of import ant
. pe7sonaecs as 4 fortune teller Of high class !;
every applicant wishing to kcow something Of
hts or Ler future fate. Nirabaau. tho Fin
cesses do Iamb.lle. General Hoche, Marshal
Lefeb,e. Ilubaspicrre. Mara, st. Just, Bar
re1c. D,Irs.. Madame Tallicn. the E,nprcrs
Jo.r, lime, Louis tile Eighteenth, the Emper-
or A;r1au,ier. TalIeyrand. Madame do Stael-
, a!l in Turn Consulted Mademoiselie Lcnor-
, mad. a1.J raid her handsomely for her FORE
tr1,inss. She knew tho history OF all her
, iii, Ms. and the circutustnuces which eu1-
rounded tnem she was probably shrewd in
l
shu msy Erye made many lucky forecasts,
Most likely tho fnilurcs we're not counted
Frsud il uuoueetionahtv concerned in some
, r.eiict;ons tlin.a w1,irI, AZ J3aeon says hate
; Il nv idia and crafty Erains been uecutolv con.
! tr;rci and ficDred after the event Dass." THIS
~ li;avat1 t Ia r., I,eer The cssN II rernrd 70
, m,nv Of tbe so-calleil nredictions Of Tia Great
tiIn ~ fonf3ny. Malt NJ thena kent cJesr Of
fhn nrec;se tistn wh,Ia few hayinc Aha reouir-
ed nreci.ion Of date could with Certainty be
TRACED to period anterior to the predicted
cycnt. Instances nte well known in which
predictions appear in manuscript in some old
iook. but with no satisfactory proof of tho
date Of the writing There is ono, credited 10
tlc fifteenth century, ecemipe to prefisure the
Crimean war.
In tvtr,. tvo hundred yesra the Rear
The Crescent viii assAi:
nut II The Cock and Bull appear,
? The Bear Will not prevail
Colloquialisms euspiciously like those Of very
recent times.
, I Tho French have liking for curious kind
Of prediction. or o1nen. INVOLVING t1e addition
With the lives Of distinguished personasea.
For instance, Kobespierre fell from power in
. 1Ta4, snd the first germ OF tho Napoleon era
\ may be dated from the same year; add to
173l the four component numbers. one, scven,
. nine, fouE; and We come to 1sl5, the yea. a
the Sixteenth aecentled tho throne in 1874
= add 177i to one, seSen seven, four, ant
! they make 1888. the year when the ill-fatet
monarch wAs executed. The great Frencl
r. | Itcyolntien began in 1853 add this to one
y seven, eight, nine, and We arrive at III,
q year 1914. when the exile to Elba put a,
" end to tho Freuch conouests in Europe
n lie Bou5bons were restored IN 1915; add thi
. !! date to one, eight, one, five, and We have tn
l. l date 1S3O when the Borrbpns were once tuor