New-York tribune., 1870-10-08
WHAT RUSSIA W1NTS.
To the Editor The Trfbune

Your opinion is that Turkey is doomed TO be invaded,
and your reasons for so deciding are that Turkey would
be easy prey to the Russian greed % conquest while
Germany would be too strong for it, and that war
against Germany would be support Of the French Re
public and the European revolution, of which Russia is
stanch enemy. Permit one, who sby long stay in Rus
s In the most influential circles there has acquired
acquaintance with the drift Of Russian politics, to
exhibit in your columns different view. The celebrated
political testament Of Peter the Great which aims at
eevatng Russia TO the first rank in Europe nay 10 Uni
vcrsa Monarchy may be spurious, but is certain that
its recommendations have always been exactly Obeyed
by the arbiters of Russian politics. matter what the
character of the actual Emperor ght be- 1t is true the
preension that Russia should be master Of the world is
seeming ridiculous considering that her people, like all
the savOans and indeed than any others Of them
the Of warke race, ndisposed toward mill
tary drill not at all aggressive in spirit nay Of an almost
effeminae good natare and that Russia must borrow
much OF science and is indispensable for modern
warfare and all the money for her campaigns But
Russian diplomacy exceedingly adrOt and sklfu In the
of money 1t has reduced bribery to art and de-
moralization to science. 1t has made catspaw
of the Germans BY the acquisition Of the three provin
of Lyona, Esthona and Courland with highly edu
Gated German population Of noblemen and savants and
by attracting immigration OF cultivated Germans who
occupy than a third of all the civil and military
offices Of Importance but never amalgamate with the
Russian people the Gar keeps his political machine
ming which otherwise would absolutely fall 10 pieces.
And by conspring with the German princes, statesmen
and professors, against German unity and liberty he
parayzes all the most dangerous enemies to Russian
eesvenes and expansion and the liberal aspirations Of
the Russian people themselves.I
Here You have Russian politics in a nutshell Now
you az once that the latest rising Of Ger
many after the French declaration Of forbodes at
very distant day, the utter ruin OF the Cars policy
The present is the most dangerous crisis for the
latter that could be imagined Russia had thus far al
u
Prussia and rice and both of them by the minor
States and France but 1866 10 Prussia the
ascendency i'm Germany, and the present war humbled
and broke down France 10 an unexpected degree. Now
it is perfectly that long the mastery OF Ger
many is held by the Hohenzoerns, the allies partners
nay satraps Of Russa-so long Russian auocracy will
have little to fear But who guarantees the throne Of
Hohenzoerns for any length Of mel Or, at least,
that the future King of Prussia will not
be carried along by the current OF powerful German
national and liberal feeling, and subborny oppose any
Russian ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Is not the very existence of
such powerful Germany standing encouragement TO
the Poles revive their nationality, and an invitation
TO LivOna, Esthonia, and Courland TO join Germany
And what would Russia be without these provinces and
without Poland Can such powerful Germany quietly
look at Russia taking possession of Turkey or stirring up
all the slavOnic tribes of Germany, Hungary, and
Turkey, toward the foundation of a Pan-SlavOnic EN-
pire But the paramount question is: Such mighty
Germany, II again be disunted, cnfetbed har-
messed to the Cars ntercstsl Is it not at least pros
pectyey, the death Of all dbSOluSM whatsoever And
the answer cannot be doubtful
Now, you will object could not Russia have forcseen
all the consequences Of the PrussoFrcuch and have
prevented ia No, she could not have imagined that
France would be so utterly broken down within one
month Indeed, who couldl The French would have
offered formidable resistance had it not been for the
stupid bluuIers Of Bonapare. Russia might reasonably
hope that the lions would eat each other TO the
very tails and that European Congress that is to say
Russia, could step in mediator and have ts part of
the spois. But for this consideration the Car would
never have favored this
And now how can we hope to engage victorious Ger
many with any prospect Of Prospect none,
he has choice Besides his prospects are either that
his sole threat of may bring Prussia TO terms and
save part OF the prestige and power Of France that
in the opposite case the future resistance OF France may
be desperate and enable Russia to march the field
in Germany, that she may If the Russo Prus sian
remains undecided complete her victory by diplomacy,
in which she is superior to all the great powers. she
WILL Of course not strike moment too soon, not before
Prussia is very severely engaged and embarrassed in
France Always it must be kept in view that the Prus
sian King is welded and welded to the Car and shuns
war with him, or at least decisive war, war that
would break down his Empire. He and all his aristoc
racy if Russia insisted war, would demand that it
should be sham war; TO be decided by diplomacy. iou
see how far Alexander H. may go in bodness, how little
be risks while Wilhelm is King
But ii is quite another question, whether this nice cal
culation will succeed miscarry There is the German
nation In the way OF it from beginning TO end. They are
desperately loyal pcopeloyal in the that they
do not resist their rulers, If they can help it, that they
are bold and brave only when the law is on their side
but then they are nyincibe They would never engage
in revolution but for excellent cause. They are Just
now very very oyal-always excepting the more intel
ligcnt class of workngmen-bu they would brook net
tbcr Russian diplomatic interference In their brush with
France nor Russian threat of war, nor sham war
laafN AZ T4tG he
eir loyatv so yOu see that in the last respect alto
getber depends the degree Of the French resistance
Whether Russia will 20 TO war with Germany and Eu
rope shall become COs5ack or Republican, -
or course there no danger of us ever becoming Coz.
cool The urOspecs are the contrary, cheering that
the days Of Cossackism are numbered That will IN
deed, be glorious moment Tor an OF Europe Gch ls
win be stopped such az never before accureed cvzed
nations Russia herself at least hcr @ m %cIh %
given 10 vice punishment no more imposed upon any
no longer be encouraged in a hundred ways, brother
may again trust his brother train may agh speak OUT
men may again believe IN honor, honesty anu JuSoo'
71S % VIZ n5 ~ more ana shall have DONE II
porune time Just now dG lGr tHe oS s6ares Win herr that
doomed sick man" on the BOsphorus France, lgahu
and italy unable TO hinder IT, Germany ready TO Wink
N Austria 10 profit by t Egypt aud gu the Greeks ana
sayOnians eager 90 help lt-Whe1 VII sueH .,t a
and tbis tne al least tey speak the truth 1--WE can
wait for Turkey they say, il does moi run away from
bsiveeS EleTandcr H. and bismarck when Tire French
German war was expected 70 last long, 70 lehFe nsla
sufficient eugth OF time 70 finish her c0nqH5i ana W ~ e.
Lau All The powers Of Germany and France 30 INV the
conquest could be made hnaiiiy NO" thc '7o J. "o
what changed. -, ,..-
Germany may al any mOment turn Opl tue arD4,rr on
LurOpe France may, through war ol despair picAl
the Infection 0f ey6ltionarv spirit ~ over Eul"p'.
Before these allimportsu issue. are decided how csn
Russia afford TO Icpcaf her bluudcr % lil H c4ne
asce0nd umc Unatafes while ENGAGED in Turkey 10 be
cheated again. as thcu, by Austria.
bus, ,l,as ouyfIt a. la ..r,..,ied li. 4. -. .
Acc i0rh. O,t g. IHN