Spirit of Jefferson. [volume] (Charles Town, Va. [W. Va.]) 1844-1948, 1870-07-12
[From the New York Sun anti,Republioan.l
The Next Housewife will Garry it.

forth their utmost exertions to obtain ma
iority in the next House of Representatives,
it is profitable to examine somewhat in detail
their chances of success.
1t is possible that the election may be held
under the new census, and with an increase
of fifty or sixty members. 1t is proposed to
elect these new members on general tickets in
the several States TO which they may be al
lotted. A careful survey of the strength of
the two parties in the States which will be
likely to obtain these additional members,
shows that their election by the whole body
of voters would be apt to divide them pretty
equally between the Democrats and Republi-
cans, with the chances rather in favor of the
latter 1t is very doubtful, however, whether
the election will take place under the new
census. In any event, if the Democrats sue
coed in carrying the next House they must
do SO by wrestling a large number of districts
now represented by Republicans out of the
hands of that party,
Counting in the State of Georgia, the pres
ent House contains 24I members OF these,
the Republicans have 1852 and the Democrats
70, giving the former majority of 83. To
change this majority, the Democrats must re-
tain all the districts they now hold, and con-
quer AZ from the Republicans. But by the
operation of the Fifteenth amendment, the
Democrats will be pretty certain to lose the
district now represented by adams of Ken
lucky, who was chosen by only 1852 majority,
and that represented by Hammill of Maryland,
who succeeded by only 586 majority. Then,
too, Voorhees, of Indiana got but 12S majority;
Wells of Missouri but ISL Strader of Ohio
but I'll and Reading of Pennsylvania only
IL. It is safe to assume that the Democrats
will lose three of these six close districts,
rendering it necessary for that party to carry
forty-fve Republican districts in order to OBJ
tain a bare majority in the next House. Can
the democracy do it
The chances are that the Democrats will
obtain thirty>fve seats now occupied by Re-
publicans from the old non-slave.holding
States of the North and West. For example:
Benton, of New Hampshire, received but
563 majority in a poll of nearly % 900 voters
in an equally large poll, while Kellogg, of
the same State, holds his seat by only s72
majority in a poll of nearly $4,000. The
probabilities are that these three seats will be
lost to the Republicans OF New England.
In the face of the results of the general
election in the State of New York last fall
and of the recent judicial election, he would
be sanguine Republican who should affirm
that his party would not pretty certainly be
beaten next November in the Eleventh Dis
triet now represented by Van Wyck; in the
Twelfth by Ketcham in the Fifteenth, by
Tanner; in the Sixteenth, by Ferris iii the
Eighteenth, by Sanford in the Twenty first,
by Bailey in the Twenty-eighth, by Davis;
and in the Thirtieth, by Bennett. Possibly,
the Republicans may secure two of these seats,
but they stand greater chance of losing three
others and their total loss in the State cam
not be less than eight.
In New Jersey, Hill of the Fourth District,
only obtained 70 majority; and he is GER
tain to be defeated this fall, in spite Of the aid
he may receive from the negro vote, provided
the Democrats place in the field popular and
respectable candidate.
PennsyIvani is debatable ground, and will
be severely contested, with probable loss to
the Republicans of seven districts; namely;
those of Myers and Covode, each of whom
got his place by unseating his Democratic
competitor; Cake, who was chosen by 225
majority; Mercur, by 311; Cessna, by 143;
$4,000; and Donley, by 1,123, in poll of
nearly 1900.
The chances are decidedly in favor of the
loss of at least seven Republicans in the dele
cation of Ohio. Stevenson received 497 ma.
jority Smith, 543 ! Winans, 1856; Welker,
462; Bingham, 416; Lawrence, 500, in
poll of $4,000; and Moore, 956, in a poll
equally large. Gen. Schenck would also seem
liable to be defeated and turned out of Con-
gress, inasmuch as his majority in 1868 was
but ATS; but he is saved by his shrewdness
in getting law-enacted by Congress to make
invalid soldiers in soldiers homes voters in
the district where the homes are situated
There are l $50 to l 500 such men in his dis
trict, who have not hitherto been allowed to
vote, but who will now vote for Schenck to
man.
The loss to the Republicans of Indiana
must be two members certainly, and per-
haps five. Julian was elected by l l6 majority,
and Ortiz by 457, the poll in the former dis
trict being nearly $1,000, and in the latter
about 80, 900. Shanks got majority of GAL
Coburn, ], O32 and Packard, 1,221-the poll
in each case being about 10000.
Hay, of Illinois, was elected by 1912 ma
jority in poll of 10000, and Beman, of
Michigan, by 1902 in a poll of about 43, 900;
and Paine, of Wisconsin, but 429 in a poll of
nearly 5000. Each of these districts will
be pretty certainly carried by the Democrats.
In several of the instances we have emu
merated the majorities at the first blush
seem to be stable; in view of the large num-
Der of votes cast, they are really narrow and
feeble. For example, the majority of Hay is
only five and half per cent of the votes
cast, and that of Morrell only four and one
third while those of Strong, Moore, Coburn
and Beman are but fraction over three, and
of Benton and some of the others even less
very unstable footing, with the tide setting
against a candidate!
Here, then, are thirty-fve Republican dis
tricts in the old free States in every one of
which the Democrats have a fair chance for
success at the next election. Let US now
turn to the more murky region of the late
slaveholding States.
Here the data wherein to make calculations