New-York tribune. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1866-1924, 1870-07-09
FR1NCE IND PRUSSIA.

FRANCE IND PRUSSIA.
Whatever may be the issue of NapOleOns
threatening demonstration, there can be no
question that Bismarck has the Emperor NOR
ally at a disadvantage. To the rather peremp-
tory demand that Prussia shall forbid Prince
Leopold to accept the Spanish crown, the
answer is dignifed and Just. Prussia has
taken no part in the nomination; the Prince is
not a member of the royal family; by ties OF
blood he is much more closely connected with
France than with Prussia; and if the Span
iards want him for their king, Prussia sees
no reason to interfere. Thus France Is
placed in an awkward situation. If she
declares war, the patriotism of Ger
many will be reused to intensity at this assault
upon the national independence, and the peo-
pie will strengthen the hands of their King by
every means in their power. We know by
experience the value of popular enthusiasm IN
supporting great war; With France the case
will be very different. Apart from the French
mans natural love of martial glory, Napoleon
can count upon no sentiment to inspire the
heart of his people. 1t will be evident,
to all who reflect at all, that he un-
dertakes an aggressive campaign without
sufficient cause and of the two objects of the
war. the rectification of the Rhenish frontier
and the settlement of the Spanish crown, one
will be regarded, by large minority of his
subjects as an unwarrantable seizure of foreign
territory, and the other as unwarrantable in
reference with the concerns of foreign king
dom. 1t is by no means clear that the eleva-
ton of a Prussian subject to the throne of
Spain would involve France in any danger,
though it would shake her prestige. But the
loss of prestige is surely no cause for war in
these days of the world, and those theories of
international politics which allowed powerful
States III former times to settle the affairs of
all Europe are now pretty well out OF fashion.
The two Powers will not only fight on UNI
equal terms, but run very unequal risks. If
Prussia is defeated she will not be seriously
crippled; she will only fall for time from
the first place in Continental politics to the
second, and her people will feel that they have
failed with dignity, and in an honest cause.
The fate of Spain will give her no uneasiness,
for she cares very little about that country,
and is not likely to suffer- whatever King may
be chosen. To France however, the cOnse-
quences of failure may be disastrous in the
extreme. Three or four plebiscitd would not
repair the mischief of such defeat. AT one
blow the influence will be destroyed for all
the rest of the present reign. She will never
again dictate even TO weak State like her
neighbOr beyond the Pyrenees. She will have
the modification of confessing to the world
that she cannot support her own pretensiOns
Republicansm will receive a tremendous i'm
pulse, and the prospects of the dynasty will be
dark indeed. All the principal military enter
prises of the third Napoleon have been fail
ures more or less complete, and another would
be more than the empire can safely bear.
The tenor of yesterdays dispatches indicates
or would indicate if the news could all be
trusted-that Napoleon is trying to keep open
retreat from his dangerous position. Most of
the kilograms give only the rumOrs of Paris,
and Paris is the place of all the world where
startling reports are most readily made out of
nothing. What messages have passed between
the Tuileries and Berlin we cannot yet know
but it is always safe to assume that the war
rumors of the French journals are much ex-
aggerated 1t is rather significant, however,
that the latest intelligence speaks almost en-
tirely of the EmperOrs efforts to induce Spain,
instead of Prussia, to reject the HohenzOllem
candidate. Spain is reminded of the services
France has rendered her in establishing the
Provisional Government and arresting Carlist
invasions. She is entreated not to insist upon
the only candidate who is really distasteful to
France. She is threatened in case she persists.
If she listens to these representations the
danger disappears and France retires from the
field, not only without discredt but
with increase of consequence. That she
will abandon the candidacy of Prince
Leopold seems more probable to-day than
ever If France and Prussia do battle
for her crown she is certain to be the VICTIM
whoever is the victor. While the war lasts
she must be harried with invasion; when it is
over, her King will be the puppet of the con-
queror. This is heavy price to pay for a
sovereign who has no special personal recon-
mendatOns, and is not acceptable to all par
ties, perhaps not even to a majority, in Spain
itself.
THE DANGERS And DUTIES OF "STRIKERS."
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