Buchanan County bulletin. [volume] (Independence, Iowa) 1869-1891, 1870-02-18
The Prospect In wheat.

The price of wheat for twelve months
past has been an enigma to business men,
and has set at naught the calculations Of
those who are generally reputed to be the
wisest on that subject. All have recognized
the fact that with an abundant harvest in
the west in 1868, and largely increased
competition from California and Russia in
the markets of western Europe, prices in
this section must rule. Yet there was not
one among all those who looked for q de-
cline who was prepared to see prices 90 so
low and keep down SO persistently. Expert
enced operators are precisely those who
have lost the most money during the past
year and half. They have constantly an
ticipated that the bottom was reached, and
that there must be reaction" and have
bought occasionally on declining market,
only to see prices 60 still lower, and hnd
themselves obliged to sell out at loss.
The feeling now seems to be pretty gen.
eral that wheat must advance materially be-
tween this date and the opening Of naviga-
ton, though it is we'll known that the stocks
in the British Isles are larger than ever be.
fore, and that the northern farmers stand
ready to pour in fresh supplies as soon AS
winter has raised the blockade upon their
ports. The theory upon which SO much
money has already been lost finds new ad-
vocates-that it is always safe TO buy be.
low the cost of production, if the buyer can
only afford TO hold for the rise, which must
surely come. There is another reason, too,
for the renewed expression Of confidence in
the future of wheat. 1t is found in the nu-
merous reports of thaving and freezing dur
ing the present extraordinary winter, which
it is alleged, has extensively injured the
winter wheat already planted for the next
crop.
There is no disputing the fact that the
present price of wheat il ruinously low for
the farmer hut there is still much reason
to doubt wether rise is to be looked for
very soon. 1t must be remembered that
the winter planting is not usually injured by
changeebe weather till later in the winter,
and that the cry of short crops is always
more easily raised than verified. 1t should
also be remembered that the crops in other
countries must be taken into account-a
partia: failure in any one section being but
q small matter. The improved means OF
communication in Europe were referred to
in the last report of the special commissioner
of the revenue as having an important bear
ing on the supply of breadstuffs in the prin-
cipal markets OF the world. The same re-
mark might have been made with regard to
California. AT the present time the Liver
pool market is still declining under the press
ure of greater stocks than can be conven-
iently stored, and forty-seven more cargoes
are afloat for the United Kingdom than at
this time last year.
The only prospect Of considerable ad.
vance in the price of wheat is to be looked
for in the direction of decrease in the
breadth planted. When the point is reached
at which farmers in this and other countries
decided that it will not pay TO raise wheat
on so large scale, we may look for reac-
lion from the depression of the present and
the past. Whether that point has been al
ready reached or rot, the future alone can
determine CHICAGO Tribune