The south-western. [volume] (Shreveport, La.) 1852-1870, 1870-04-20
The Cotton Supply.

The New Orleans Bulletin republishes from the Bull
letin of New York lengthy article upon the subject
of the cotton supply in which the writer argues that
the crop of 1859 will certainly reach three millions of
bales although some estimates place the limit at two
millions hundred and fifty thousand difference
of TWO hundred and fifty thousand bales, which will
have very important bearing upon the future value
of the staple In proof of his position he states that
from September l. 1862 to April /, 1870, the total
receipts at the ports amounted to 100000 bales
against l,844,00 bales for the same period of
1869, showing increase of FIVE hundred and sixty
two thousand bales. Last year the receipts from April
J. to September !, were five hundred and ninety five
thousand bales and assuming that the receipts for the
same five months this year equal, his estimate of
three millions of bales will prove correct.
Per contra, it is urged by those who place the es.
innate of the crop at the4ower figures namely $50,
600 bales, that this year the crop has forward
earlier than usual and that the receipts for the later
months will be lighter, compared with the earlier
months than LAST year. In answer to this the writer
shows that the course of receipts has confirmed
these expectations the fact being that for the last
four weeks preceding the lst of April the receipts
have been 10000 bales above those for the same
period of last year. Up to April 1869, seventy-fve
per cent of the whole crop had been received
ing that the past receipts this year will bear the same
proportion to the supply of the twelve months, we
should have 3,20S, 900 bales as the total crop We
may therefore, allow 20s 900 bales for the falling off
compared with last year. in the later receipts and yet
have crop of 100000 bales"
4 robu Cta ic oiu pbo,, +b,t ~
present quantity of cotton in sight is 900 bales
more than at this period last year. The stock in Liver
pool is 10000 bales higher and quantity ahoat for
Great Britain 68 900 bales more while the stock in
American ports is $1,000 bales greater On the other
hand the table shows 900 bales less of India cot
ton afoat than in 1869 which falling off is accounted
for By the fact that the crop of that country is very
late Though, as the extent of land under cultivation
is twelve per cent. in of last year, aud the
crops in those districts which market at Madras Cal
cutta ETC. considerably better it is claimed by those
who profess know that the chances very decidedly
in favor Of shipment in of last years supply
of at least 900 bales and if the monsoon sets in
late, and prices remain high it may be more"
The article winds up with the suboined paragraph,
the closing sentence of which that, if the next
crop should prove large one, cotton may be worth
only from eight to ten cents per pound
Assuming then, that the receipts from now to Sep
TENDER will be the same as last year that the crop
of 1870 will not fall below the 100000 bales which
we have estimated the crop of 1869 that the India
crop will show increase of 250O 900 bales and al
lowing 81 900 bales the increase in the stocks in
America and Europe and the increase in the cotton
afoat from all points except Inda-we have an ap-
parent increase in supply equal to 1000 bales per
week for the next twelve months. 1t remains to be
seen how far this estimate may be affected by the in
crease or decrease in the next home crop. All reports
from the South indicate that strong efforts being
made to extend the production under the stimulus of
the handsome profits realized upon the last crop and
thus far the weather has been favorable Some diff
Guilty arises from the scarcity and the high of labor
but upon the whole, it would seem that only adverse
could the crop to fall below that of last
year The conclusion from this general survey is that
we are approaching the old relation between supply
and demand