Nashville union and American. [volume] (Nashville, Tenn.) 1868-1875, 1870-02-24
THE COTTON CROP AND TME sup
PLY OF COTTON.

than was anticipated a few months ago.
Ga the 4th of February Charleston cor
respondent wrote to the New York Ship
ping and Commercial List as follows:
''Without desiring to make any esti-
mate of the crop now reaching market, it
will be well TO note the result of some calcu-
lations. The total receipts at all the ports
to the 4th of February amount to 1,77l,-
307 bales. Those to the same date last
year amounted to 1,4l8, S53 bales, show
ing an excess this year of 352, 454 bales.
Now if this same ratio of excess continues
for the following four months, it will
give an increase over last year of 634, 900
bales, and therefore make a total on LIST
September of about 2, 993, 900 bales. The
receipts last year from 4th February to 1st
September were an increase of about 66 per
cent upon the receipts to the former date
therefore if the quantity of cotton to come
to hand, during the following seven months,
amounts TO the same proportion of the
crop as that received during the same
period last year, we will yet have to re-
ceive this season about ], Ito, 600 bales,
which will give US total of 2, 941, $50
bales The Bureau of Agriculture esti-
mates that about 100000 acres were
planted in cotton last year, and that the
average yield has been about 1881 II
acre. This at 425 ID n bale will give
about 3,001, 900 bales.
'tNow it is well known that the princi-
| pal rivers of the West have been unusu-
ally low until very lately, therefore, it
NOV no ,Droc1p,ad thaf cotton, hoe b,,t fair
| ly begun to move to the Southeastern
| ports, since the streams have risen. And
that there is still much cotton on planta-
| tons even in the Southwestern States is
| evidenced by the frequent burnings of
| gin-houses which we see recorded in the
| daily papers. 1t can only be now said,
| that the prospect seems fair of having a
larger crop than is generally expected"
Now let US see how the receipts for
two week go to sustain the predictions of
this correspondent. The receipts at all
the ports up to close of the week ending
the 18th inst, foot up in round numbers
1000, 900 bales, showing the receipts OF
the two weeks Immediately succeeding
the date of the Charleston letter to be
about 22S, 700 bales. This does not in
dictate any lack of supplies from which
to draw cotton. In seven interior towns
from which reports are regularly received
by cotton dealers, there were on the 18th
inst, stocks of cotton amounting to about
| 100, 900 bales. Then there are fifteen OF
twenty other 'finterior towns in the
South from which no returns are received,
and at these towns are 10000 bales
more, perhaps 10000 1t is reported
to us by a gentleman direct from Mis-
sissippi that the planters are still picking
cotton in many portions of that State, and
that there is a large amount of cotton still
on the plantations. Another indication
that the supply of cotton in the interior
is not near exhausted, is to be found in
the fact that every steamer that arrives al
| New Orleans from the Red or the Arkan-
sas rivers comes with full cargo of cot
ton. 1t is clear that if the ratio of in
crease inthe receipts fort remaining six
months of the cotton year shall correspond
with that to the present time, the cotton
crop of 1869 cannot fall much, if any,
short of 100000 bales.
In a careful review of the prospects of
business among the manufacturers of
Great Britain for this year, the London
Economist points out the improvement
in activity in Lancashire, and expresses
great confidence that food will continue
InUdeIato IN price; that the market for
goods Will be active, and that, on the
whole, the revival of trade is but begin
ming. But there is another question of
Importance, on which it confesses doubt:
| ''But the second condition of manufac-
turing profit-a plentiful supply of cotton
is very obscure. Such a supply cannot
certainly be relied on the present year. The
consumption last year in bales of 400
pounds was 2, 347, 600; and as a third
more was necessary to give employment
TO the mills, there ought to be prospect
of that addition, or of 500, 600 bales
more, this year to make Lancashire quite
| comfortable But the most sanguine do
not anticipate so much as this; and so
sudden an increase, especially without
any new stimulus in prices, is in the
highest degree improbable. Possibly it
may be said a less increase will suffice
say enough to maintain the present con-
sumption of about 80, 900 bales per week
that is from 800, 900 to 400, 900 bales
more this year than last. 1t will be
enough, it is thought, 60 save the mills in
operation from excessive competition for
the raw material.
"We are not so sure of this, the temp
tation to reopen the mills being very
great; but assuming it to be true, the
chance of the requisite number OF bale
being received depends on two doubt
ful contingencies. Practically, as we ex-
| planned in a recent article, we depend
| upon America and India for our supplies,
as we get five-siXths of the total from
them; but there is doubt as to both fields.
| No one can tell with certainty what the
| last American crop is. The officers of
| the Agricultural Bureau calculate it at
| 1850, 600 bales, or 300, 900 more than
the previous year, which is very satisfac-
tory, as we are sure to get the bulk of the
| difference.
''Our imports from America, again,
as we have seen, already exceeded by that
amount the imports at the same date last
year. But this is not enough for Ger
tainty. The motive of price, as well as
the forwardness of the crop, would be
quite sufficient to account for theimpOrts;
and the official figures as to the crop are
necessarily based on imperfect data. And
if there is mystery about America there
is still more about India. According
TO all accounts there is larger
area under crop than there was the
previous season; but the weather has
been bad, and there is considerable doubt
whether we shall even get the import of
last year, though it is also possible we
may get good deal more. Thus, with
the American and Indian supplies both
doubtful, it would be very rash to feel
confidence that Lancashire will fully bene-
fit by the improved demand which has
set in
The doubts of the Economist as to the
Indian supply seem to be entirely justi-
fled. A partial failure in that quarter
seems probable. But the sober students
of the subject in this country do not ap-
a, en-