Nashville union and American. [volume] (Nashville, Tenn.) 1868-1875, 1870-07-16
THE FORTY-SECOND CON-
GRESS.
AsRevIew of the Political Field by a
Radical Journal.
The Democrats TO Garry the Next
House of representatives.

tn0 OOnlVOIots gam VI OnIy one mem
Der in Tennessee, the fourth district, civ
en- to Tillman by the House SO far. a
though he received only minority of til
votes cast. The Democrats viii certainl
carry the third, fourth, fifth, sixth
seventh, and eighth districts, and stand
fair chance of carrying the first an
second. The Sun says:
The Democrats having determined +
put forth their utmost exertions to obtai,
majority in the next House of Repre-
sentatives, it is profitable to examine some
what in detail their chances of success.
Counting in the State of Georgia. In
present House contains 241 members q
these the Republicans have 1862 and tn
Democrats 70, giving the former a ma
Jor1ty OF 80. To change this majority
the Democrats must retain all the dis
trlcts they now hold, and conquer 40 from
the Republicans. But by the operation
of the fifteenth amendment the Demo
Gratis will be pretty certain to lose thu
district now represented by Adams, OF
kentucky, who was chosen by only 46E
majority, and that represented by Hamill,
OF Maryland, who succeeded by only 5Sf
majority. Then, too, Voorhees,, of Indi.
ana, got but 12S majority; Wells, of Mis-
sour, but ISL; Strader, of Ohio, but oil,
and Reading, of Pennsylvania, only Al.
1t is safe to assume that the Democrats
will lose three of these six close districts,
rendering it necessary. for that party tc
carry forty-tiVe Republican districts in
order to obtain a bare majority in the next
House. Can the Democracy do it?
Because of the blunders of the Tam
many Convention, the drift of the politi-
cal tide in 1858 was strongly in favor of
the Republicans. Owing to the still gros-
ser and even criminal blunders of Gen.
Grants Administration, the current now
sets steadily in favor of the Democracy.
And in sharp, doubtful contest, the set
of the current often determines the vic
tory.
The chances are that the Democrats will
obtain thirty-fiVe seats now OCCUPIED by
Republicans from the old non-slayehold-
ing States of the North and West For
example:
Benton, of New Hampshire, received
but 565 majority in poll of nearly o.
600 votes. Strong, of Connecticut, got
but 735 majority in an equally large Doll,
while Kellogg, of the same State, holds
his seat by only 372 majority in a poll of
nearly q, 900. The probabilities are that
these three seats will be lost to the Re
publicans of New England.
In the face of the result of the general
election in the State of New York last
fall, and of the recent judicial election.
he would be sanguine Republican who
should affirm that his party would not
pretty certainly be beaten next November
in the Eleventh District, now represented
by Van Wyck, in the Twelfth, by Ketch-
ham; In the Fifteenth, bv Tanner; in the
Sixteenth, by Ferriss; in the Eighteenth.
by Sanford; in the Twenty-first by Bal
ley; in the Tweuty-eighth, by Davis; and
IN the Thirtieth, Bennett Possibly the
Republicans may secure two of these
seats, but they stand greater chance of
losing three others; and their total loss in
the State cannot be less than eight.
In New Jersey, Hill, of the Fourth
District, only obtained 70 majority; and
he is certain TO be defeated this fall. in
spite of the aid he may receive from the
negro vote, provided the Democrats place
in the field popular and respectable can
didate. Pennsylvania is the debatable
ground, and will be severely contested,
with probable loss to the Republicans of
seven districts, namely: those of Myers
and CoVode, each of whom got his place
by unseating his Democratic competitor;
Cake, who was chosen by 225 majority;
Mercur, by 3l1; Cessna, by 143; Morrell.
by l,O94, in poll of more than 90, 600;
and Donley, by l, 1913, in poll of nearly
$4,000.
The chances are decidedly in favor of
the loss of at least seven Republicans in
the delegation of Ohio. Stevenson re-
ceived 497 majority; Smith, S43; Winans,
155; Welker, 1852; Bingham, 416; Law
renee, 629, in a poll of $1,000; and
Moore, $50, in a poll equally large. Gen.
Schenck would also seem liable to be de-
feated and turned out of Congress, mas
much as his majority in 1868 was but
475; but he is saved by his shrewdness in
getting law enacted by Congress to make
invalid soldiers in Soldiers Homes voters
in the district where the Homes are situa-
ted. There are 1000 to 1,5OO such men
in his district, who have not hitherto been
allowed to vote, but who will now vote
for Schenck to man.
The loss to the Republicans of Indiana
must be two members certainly, and per-
haps five. Julian was elected by 1l6 ma
jority, and Orth by 457, the poll in the
former district being nearly q, 900, and
in the latter about $4,000. Shanks got a
majority of GAL; Coburn, 1882; and
Packard, 1,221-the poll in each case be-
ing about $4,000.
Hay, of Illinois, was elected by 1,642
majority in poll of $4,000, and Beman.
of Michigan, by l, COZ in poll of about
$4,000; while Fitch, of Nevada, received
SS7 majority, and Paine, of Wisconsin,
but 429 in poll of nearly 50, 900. Each
of these districts will be pretty certainly
carried by the Democrats.
In several of these instances we have
enumerated, the majorities at the first
blush seem to be stable; but, in view of
the large number of votes cast, they arc
really narrow and feeble. For example,
the majority of Hay is only five and a
half percent, of the votes cast, and that
of MOrrell only four and one third; while
those of Strong, Moore, COburn, and Be
man are but fraction over three, and of
Benton and some of the others even less
very unstable footing, with the tide set
ting against a candidate!
Here, then, are thirty-five Republican
districts in the old free States, in every
one of which the Democrats have fair
chance for success at the next election.
Let US now turn tothe more murky region
of the late saTehOlding States.
Here the data wherein to make calcu-
lations are far less certain than under the
clearer political atmosphere of the North
and West. Only one thing is sure, and
that is, that the Democracy Jared so
badly in the last Congressional contests in
those States, they must inevitably fare a
good deal better next November. They
will undoubtedly secure the seat of Helm.
of2Alabama, who was elected by only 1853
majority; of Roots, of Arkansas, who got