, 1870-02-08
THE WHEAT PROspECr,

The price of wheat for twelve months
past has been an enigma to bus,n sss men,
md has set at naught the calculations Of
those who arc generally reputed to be the
wisest On that subject ALI have 1ecog-
uized tho fact that with an abundant harvest
in tho West in 1868, and largely increased
competition from California and Russia in
tho markets Of Western Europe, prices in
this section must Inle low. Yet there was
not ono among all those who looked for
decline who was prepared 10 see prices 60
so low and keep down so perslstently. E1-
perienced operators are precisely those who
have lost the most money during the past
year and half. They have constantly au-
ticipated that the bottom was reached. aud
that there must bo reaction" aud have
bought accordingly on declining market,
only TO see prices so still lower, and find
themselves obliged to sell ont at loss.
The feeling now seems to be pretty gen
eral that wheat must advance materially
between this date and the opening of naviga-
ion, though it is we'll known that the
stocks in the British Isles arc larger than
ever before, and that the Northern farmers
stand ready to pour in fresh supplies as
soon rs winter has raised the blockade upon
their ports. The theory upon which go
much money has already been lost finds
new advocatea-that it is always safe to buy
below the cost Of production, II the buyer
can only afford to hold for tho rise, which
must surely come. There is another rea-
son, too, for tho renewed expression Of COZ
fidence in the future Of wheat. It Is found
in the numerous reports Of thswing and
froezing during the present extraordinary
winter, which, it is alleged, has extensively
injured the winter wheat already planted
for the next crop.
There is no disputing the fact that
the present price Of wheat is ruino11sly
low for the farmer but there is still nuch
reason to doubt whether a rise is to be.
looked for very soon. It must be renaem-
bered that the winter plantiug is not usual
" injured by chanQeabie weather till late
in the winter, and that the cry Of short crop
is always more easily raised than verified.
Il should also be remembered that the
crops in other countries must be taken into
The account partial failure in any one
section being but small matter. The i'm
proved means OF communication in Europe
we're referred to in the last report Of the
Special Commissioner OF the Revenue as
having an important bearing on the supply
Of breadstutfs in the principal markets Of
the world. The same remarks might have
been made with regard to California. At
the preRent time the liverpool narket is
still declining under the pressure Of greater
stocks than can be conveniently stored,
and forty-seven mere cargoes are aAoat for
tha United Kingdom than at this time
last year.
The only prospect Of considerable ad-
vance in the price Of wheat is to be looked
for in the direction Of decrease in the
breadth planted. When the point is reached
| at which farmers in this and other countries
decide that it will not pay to raise wheat on
so large scale, We mny look for a reaction
from the depression Of the present aud the
past. Whether that point has been already
reached or not, the future alone can deter.