The sun. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1833-1916, 1870-07-01

conquer AZ from the Republicans. But by
the operation of the Fifteenth Amendment,
the Democrats will be pretty certain to lose
the district now represented by ADAMS Of
Kentucky, who was chosen by only 400 ma
jority and that represented by HAMILL OF
Maryland who succeeded by only $50 ma
jority. Then, too, VOORHEES, Of Indiana
got Blu. 1873 majority WELLS Of Missouri
but 1s1 STRADER of Ohio but Ell and
READING Of Pennsylvania only Al. II is
safc to assume that the Democrats will lose
three of these six close districts rendering it
necessary for that party to carry forty.five
Republican districts in order TO obtain a
bare majority in the next House Can the
Democracy do it2
Because of the blunders of the Tammany
Convention, the drift of the political tide in
1868 was strongly in favor of the Repub
leans. Owing TO the still grosser and even
criminal blunders of Gen. GRANTS Admins
tration, the current now sets steadily in
favor of the Democracy. And in sharp,
doubtful contest, the set of the current often
determines the victory.
The chances are that the Democrats will
obtain thirty-fve seats now occupied by
Republicans from the old non-slaveholding
States of the North and West. For example:
BENTON Of New Hampshire received but
563 majority in poll OF nearly $4,000 votes
STRoNo of Connecticut got but 1876 majority
in an equally large poll while KELLOGG Of
the same State holds his seat by only 312
majority in a poll of nearly $4,000 The
probabilities are that these three seats will
be lost to the Republicans of New England.
In the face of the result of the general
election in the State Of New York last fall,
and Of the recent judicial election, he would
be n sanguine Republican who should affirm
that his party would not pretty certainly
be beaten next November in the Eleventh
District, now represented by VAN WICK in
the Twelfth, by KETcnAM in the Fifteenth,
by TANNER in the Sixteenth, by FERRIS in
the Eighteenth, by SANFORD; in the Twenty
first, by BAILEY; in the Twenty eighth, by
DAVIS; and in the Thirtieth, by BENNETT.
Possibly the Republicans may secure two Of
these seats, but they stand E greater chance
Of losing three others and their total loss
in the State cannot be less than eight.
In New Jersey, HILL, of the Fourth Dis
trict, only obtained 70 majority and he is
the aid he may receive from the negro vote,
provided the Democrats place in the Geld a
popular and respectable candidate.
Pennsylvania is debatable ground, and
will be severely contested, with a probable
loss to the Republicans of seven districts,
namely thoec of MYERS and CoyoDE, each
Of whom got his place by unseating his Dem.
ocratic competitor; CAKE, who was chosen
by 22j majority MERcrR, by 81 CESSNA,
by l43; MoRRELL, by 1904, in a poll Of
more than $4,000; and DoSLEY, by !, l23, IN
n poll OF nearly $1,000
The chances are decidly in favor Of the loss
of at least seven Republicans in the delega-
ton Of Ohio. STEVENSON received 497 ma
jority SMITH, 343 WINANs, 1856; wELKER,
462 BINGHAM, ais; LAWRENCE, $50, in a
poll of $1,000 and MOORE, $50, in poll
equally large. Gen. ScHENCK would also
seem liable TO be defeated and turned out of
Congress, inasmuch as his majority in 1868
was but AS; but he is saved by his shrewd.
ness in getting law enacted by Congress 10
make invalid soldiers in Soldiers Homes
voters in the district where the Homes are
situated. There are / 200 to 500 such men
in his district who have not hitherto been
allowed 10 vote but who will now vote for
ScHESCK TO man.
The loss 10 the Republicans of Indiana
must be two members certainly, and perhaps
five. JULIAN was elected by 116 majority,
and ORTIZ by 4j7, the poll in the former dis.
trict being nearly $1,000, and in the latter
about ~ 600 sHANKs got majority of 941 !;
CoRURS, 1882 and PACKARD, 1,221-the
poll in each case being about of 10000
HAY Of Illinois was elected by ,G42 ma
jority in poll of 290o0, and BEMAN of
Michigan by 1902 in a poll of about A., 900 !;
while FITCH Of Nevada received ss7 major.
ity, and PAINE of Wisconsin but APO in a
poll of nearly $4,000 Each of these dis
tricts will be pretty certainly carried by the
Democrats.
In several of the instances we have emu.
merated, the majorities at the first blush
seem 10 be stable but in view of the large
number of votes cast they are really narrow
and feeble. For example, the majority of
| HAY is only five and half per cent. of the
votes cast. and that of MORRILL, only four
and one'third while those of STRONG,
| MOORE, CoBURN, and BEMAN are but a
| fraction over three and OF BENTON and some
of the others even less-very unstable foot.
ing, with the tide setting against a candi.
date
Here, then, are thirty-fve Republican dis
tricis in the old free States, in every one of
which the Democrats have a fair chance for
success at the next election. Let us now
turn to the more murky region OF the late
slaveholding States
Here the data wherein TO make calcula-
tons are far less certain than under the clearer