The New York herald., 1869-12-08
TRADE AND FINANCE.
Thv Commercial Prospect-Generai Bnl-
ness OF Trade and lis Cause.-The
Feeling Among WhOleSals Dealers
No Occasion for Nervousness.

cnded by the sensation dailles, seemed week
or two ago 10 be bent on the evolution or 0
panic, though without any real reason ir
point OF fact Should gold sink during the pre-
sent month lanure5 must OF necessity result, since
the imports for tue year 1859 have exceeded those
Of 1905 by slI,OOl,Ooo and those OF 1867 by about
$4,000. 900. on tie other hand the shipments Of
specie this year have alen $40 900 short OF last
years. ngures and hence there is double reason
Tor the downward tendency Of gold. The dulness
IN financial circles exceeds anything In the
experience OF the past four years. but Is not
fairly attributable TO the September panic IN
Wall street. In fact, general reaction
against speculative excuses seems TO have set IN
among business men, wac now limit their transac-
tons moro rigdiy TO legitimate trade, mostly In
anticipation perhaps OF seyerer st-ingency In the
money market for the current month. The ques-
tion to be solved Is whether business can bear
the strain Of further ten or twelve per cent
depression IN gold without danger OF general COL
lapse. Thus far, saving the great speculative com.
bnaIion IN September last, the year has been OF
steady reaction against speculative excesses. The
seniency OF capital desert the haunts OF specaia
Sion and embark IN legitimate commercial and In.
austral pursuits has been quietly asserting itself for
sbe last twelve monthsn fact, ever since the great
october strlngency OF last year, occasloned by a
formidable and less extensive. Leading dry goods
importers complain considerably; but there is
no prospect that the government VIII shift
It's policy unless the risk OF collapse should become
imminent IA winch case financial wisdom would
dlctate the discontinuance OF the gold sales. The
people al large are bens aud iutent on resumption
and convertible currency, and the steady declen-
sion OF the gold premium ls very generally inter-
preted as step In the right direction. The current
OF popular opinion 49, in fact In favor OF the down
ward tendency OF god OF almost any expense and
will not probably be dsregarded unless the danger
OF Crisis should loom up imminenty In the course
OF the month. The part OF sound wisdom for the
commercial classes Is, therefore, contract credits
and wait quietly. few weeks duness in business
must be accepted and prepared for while values are
adapting themselves 10 the new state or things.
The wisdom OF the present policy need not be dis.
cussed since tue policy itself IS already assumed
TACT though it Is d.fcuit TO understand what prac.
neal advantage ia to oe gained by the forced reduc
tion Of the gold premium. The average per capita
Of currency IN England is twenty-five dollars; In
France, thirty1ve; II the German States, about
swenty-tnree; and. as wherever wages are high the
volume OF the circulating medium must be large in
the United States the average ought not to be under
rory which gives at least 81, 20J 900, 900 needed,
against the S7GU oJo 800 now in circulation. To con-
tract the volume SO "a to render specie payments
practicable would, tneretore, render the country
bankrupt anu result In second and more fatal
suspension. GA the other nand, 1t Is argued
thai convertihnity OR resumptlon, liberatng gold
would aud 81 least Si9O, 900 U00 in specie cir
cuatlng Medium. whicn, however, Il only theoreu-
caly true since specie not nkey to appear to any
great sxsent IN the actual circulation. The fact
commerce at this age cannot be made To rest upon
tie metallic medium, lis volume being radically in-
safieieDt, 10 say nothing OF It's inconvenience, and
some monetary system must be developed In winch
the Ideas or tue tasE century plA be
10 embarrlss the mole extended and colossal CON-
mercia ideas oI the present. However the adyo-
Gates oil specie nag struggle, the next century Will
witness complete aDIogation OF their theories OF
finance and heH system OF political economy In
respect 10 them. Ii Is useless to quarrel with the
inevitable luglc oi events the world Will move. and
IL 10 always Detter 10 stand from
than 10 be grouDl 10 powder by Insisting upon
trying TO stop l.. Alter all these experiments
have been tired tns day VIII come when gold Will
be regarded SIMPLY as a commercial commodity
the circulating medium proper beng based directly
upon tue credit OF the government.
In the meantime there Is no occasion for croaking
aud no real apprehension o. a crisis. The tendency
OF prices Is downward, and InIs Will OF necessity
bring BUYERS INTO The market after few weeks.
The Western demand Is JUST now very dull, owing 10
crops uns0id. staae of lnlngs partially occasioned
by the september speculation. Tins Is ony repet.
zion OF tue phenomenon OF last year toccasoned by
tue october specuatonh winch worked q partial
paralysis IN the same direction and need not occasion
any very serious apprehension Tue southern de-
mand, on sne other hand, Is uncommonly active
and brisk at present. and wall be more
curing the early sprlDg months. There IL no doubt
however. mat trade is duIer tnan IL was at corre
spending date last year. though tnIs is owing the
fGthDg OIL oI ali speculative demand. and has been
felt 10y auction houses more severely than by the
legitimate trade. Last year there was great deal
q! speculative ouylug early IN the winter; and c0un-
tiy dealers having bought more than tnev really
wanted, the failing Oh OF demand tnis season may
be accounted 1or. Furthermore, an extensive com
biHatIon Of nrst class houses mas opposed the auc
ton trade Ior coupe oI years past and the oppo-
hltion Is beginning to tell seriously upon It's pros.
pecs. In loo tne auet on trade WAS strong enough
30 rule the market, especially IN dry goods and
wholesalers viewed It's extensive operations
YIth some aaru. The next year com.
bnation was rather tacitly made b. lead
ing houses, with q view TO crush out tne
business or rather TO reduce 1t to It's original triou
tary position. The attempt was, on the wbole sue
eessiul, ana maY account for the general duness
complained OF Dy auctioneers, at least 4 d greas
measure. The number Ul failures reportuu for No
temDer s rather les ilan last year, with liabilities
considerably less and if dealers continue cautious
there - no reason way the year should not close
fav0rably except, possibly, too great depression
In commercial values occasoGed Dy heavy gold sales.
Tue month Of December passed over Ia 81 ETY., IL Il
cOnceded on all hands tnat tne prospect OF heavy
spring trade was never more favorable,
minute comparison OF the saies OF the month OF
November us Compared with November lass year.
exhibits average 1ailng on OF about qfteen per
cent In the receipts OF leading dry goods houses.
on The oIner hand, collections are easy losses
small az compared wlt1 last year. ana extensions
are far less frequently asked-facts which prove be-
Jond doubt tn&t there Is no imminent danger or
any very extensive suspensions. Stlll q declensIon
Of ten or tWeVe IN the gold premium for a single
month, as - anticipated Tor December, necessi-
tatlng q corresponding depression In commercial
values, 10 too rapia, aud cannot but operate
dsastrouslJ to greater less extent, especially
upon importers, when 1t IL remembered tnat this
depression OF values has been going on sInce ls65
with sn1icient rapldity, having been once or twice
accelerated hy contraction ag to reuder a uautc
Imminent generalization Of ths depression for
four years, gathered from the best commercial
authorities, u expressed In Ihe table,
Acreage Depression.
Per Gem.
1896 q
1857 ls