Staunton vindicator. [volume] (Staunton, Va.) 1860-1896, 1869-10-15

soluble lul1orai llatCoE OF all neCuIul xmas
to do perfectly we'll without the solvent ac-
ton Of the salt, yet not liable to Special in
jury by such surplus Of this material as had
been brought in by the manure Or, yet
again, the experiments might have been
tried upon similar land, but upon altogether
different crops, or in altogether different
seasons.
While, therefore, we must be very care
full in sitting the details of the information We
suppose ourselves to have gained from OBJ
servation of what is going on in nature
about US, and must be equally careful in ar
ranging the conditions Of our experiments,
and in stating the precise character and ex-
tent of the evidence accumulated by such
experiments, We must still further exercise
caution as to the logical conclusions we
draw from our facts when we have got them
as to the manner in which we reason from
these facts, assuming that they have been
we'll determined.
There are many ways in which we may
deceive ourselves and to what is really proved
by admitted facts before us
Thus we may arrive at n conclusion from
considering number of separate statements
taken Ms true, but of which some are in fact
only probably or approximately true, and
the uncertainty of the conclusion Increases
astonishingly fast with the number Of such
doubtful assumptions, though there may be
very little doubt about each Of them by itself
For example, one may assert that his ex-
poriencc fully proves that particular far
ming practice will be found profitable, ma
king out perhaps very clear statement of
expenditure and return under all the proper
heads, but assuming little in regard to each
that the cost will be about SO much, that
the difference of cost to him and to other
farmers cannot be more than about so much
and that about such returns may be looked
for on an average of different years. A very
little error under each head will often be
found to lead to woful error in Che general
result.
Again, it is extremely common to, find
facts themselves thoroughly we'll establish
ed-coupled together in the relation Of cause
and effect without any proper warrant, but
simply in consequence Of some, perhaps ac-
cdental, coincidence Of time or place. -
I A sick man is visited by the doctor, who
prescribes dose Of particular medicine
the patient takes this, and soon after gets
we'll, or gets worse as the case may be-how
often do we hear the assertion that this proves
that the patient has been cured or injured
by the medicine, though perhaps the result
would have been exactly the same if he had
refused to take the prescription at all. 10
like manner it is amusing to notice the differ.
ent styles in which the supposed effects of
different manures are spoken Of in seasons of
particularly favorable or unfavorable wealth
cr. In very favorable season pretty near
ly all crops do well, farmers are in too good
spirits to make very precise comparisons,
and every one who has used any fertilIzing
material is disposed to say that, because he
has made such Or such an application to his
land and has obtained fine return from his
fields, therefore he has ''made the good crop
by the manure" and that the particular fer
tilizer he has used is that he is going to stick
to in the future and to recommend to all his
neighbors On the other hand, in a very
unfavorable year-one of excessive heat or
continuous rain, for instance-no ones crop
uccseeds, is a strong tendency on the partof all
those who have employed fertilizers todeclare
the materials they have severally used worth
less-each farmer, whether he imputes fraud
to the manufacturer of whom he purchased
Or not, at any rate vowing that he will never
again use the special material to which he
attributes his III success. -.r5.
It is highly important to remember that,
while particular result following after
particular procedure DON ne occasion of it.
self proves but little as to there being any
true connection between them. If a like
coincidence happen second time the proba-
bility that the one is caused by the other is
much strengthened, and if such experience
often repeated shows that the supposed cause
is always, Or almost always followed by the
same result, while in the absence Of the for
mer the latter is also absent, the mind can
arrive at but one conclusion. Il sin gle
farmer had on q single occasion strewn SUI
per-phosphate of lime upon his field and in
that season made a good crop of ruta baga,
it would be far from proved that the prop
er manure vith WHICH to prepare land for
that plant had been found. But when we
find that the application Of uper-phosphate
of lime, after having been tried for many
years and by thousands of farmers. almost
always is succeeded by fine crops of field
turn ps, we are justified in concluding that
the manure used has really been the cause
of the general success, and that exceptional
cases of failure have been due to other eau
SEES, peculiar to the plant or season, Interior
ing. But even if our experience has been
extensive enough to fully satisfy US of the
dependence of certain effect upon certain
cause, We may be wrong in assuming that
cauaes acts III particular acay. sd a
1t is far from uncommon ta iGd causes
and effects connected in nature in an indi-a
rect and secondary manner, whereas most
people are inclined to take for granted some
very simple and direct form Of relation be-
tween the two.
1t appears easy to understand how many
Of the most important constituents Of our
mineral manpres produce their beneficial eff
fects upon the crops when VIC find that these
same substances-such phosphoric acid,
potash, &c-uniformly form large part of
the mineral matter of the growing plant it
self, and are to be found in the ashes which
the plant yields in burning off the vegetable
portion. Now ii is we'll aseeptained that
common salt used in moderate quantity ex-
erts very generally beneficial effect upon
the fields to which it is applied and improves
the crops raised thereon. Common salt it.
self consists solely Of tho two chemical sub
stances, chlorine and sodium 9'''
With these facts alone before us, most
people would be ready 10 say that chlorine
and sodium are certainly -lihe the other ma
teriais just referred tn-forms Of mineral
food for plants and must be found as eonstitu-
ents of their ashes. Yet there is much rea-
son for believing that this is not so. The
a,1nntitu of chlorine and sodium found in the