Memphis daily appeal. [volume] (Memphis, Tenn.) 1847-1886, 1869-04-03
COTTON.
specuIatIOns and Prophecies
Concerning the Crop Of 1883.

From Or Savannah (Ga.) Republican,
This Is now the subject Of much speeu-
Iation and prophecy. The crop OF last
vear is a fixed fact its figures are known,
At least TO the extent Of approximation,
and the question OF value settled by the
law OF supply and demand. This latter
decree is extremely repUgnsnt TO the
spectators aad spiDRers, and 1t Is aston
ishing with what psrtinaeity they resort
TO exOedients to set it aside. The sFgu-
msuts drawn from estimates OF quantity,
so far IS the meaning crop is concerned,
having failed, they now seek to depress
the market by creating the impression
that a very large crop is to succeed 1t.
Under the most advantageous cireum-
stances the argument is next 10 worm
less. In Visw of the contingencies that
surround everything ip the future. A
bad stand, q late frCst in the spring,
v ct summer, the worms and caterpillars,
an eariy frost in the fell, are all natural
disasters that may come upon the plant
er, to say nothing OF the difhculties OF
production growing out OF the present
disOTgaDiz alton OF lab5r.
But, reasoning from facts and proba-
bilities, these prophecies of heavy crop
in 1869 are wholly at fault. There are
no satisfactory grounds upon which such
an estimate can be based. Under the
very best of circumstances we do not be-
ijeVe that the crop can be made to exceed
il to reach, s .000,090 bales, and in our
Judgment, formed upon pretty accurate
knowledge OF the condition OF planting
interests Of the South, it will fall fully
half q million short OF that figure, even
allowing no natural disaster to Overtaks
it. We nave already diaeussed the mat
ter ia previous number OF the Repuo-
HcGn, bat as the contrary opinion Is per-
slsJently presented in order to lufluence
the market and cut short the receipts OF
the planter, it may not be amiss again to
present the REASONS that Influence cur
opinion.
One Of these resaons Is 10 be found in
the remark able bat sure and steady re-
duetiOn of the amOunt OF labor devoted
10 the cultivation OF cotton. Nor is thfs
confined to Any particular section; the
compl Amt comes from every cotton grow
ing State from California to Texas, that
the planters have failed to procure the
REQUISITE and usual force for their years
operations.
Iu the second place, it is not true, as
asserted, that, daulented by the hIgS
prices of the present day, the planters
nave determined to abandon the cereals
to a very great extent, and devote tnem-
selves TO the Productisn OF the staple.
Some few may have grown wild on the
snhiact. but the great body of our agri-
cuIiurisss are shire wd, observing men, and
have lesraed from experience that 1t Ia
folly to buy bresd and bacon. Those
who have made all these in the proper
proportion have prOspeTed most, while
their neighbors who have looked to the
Northwest for their bread and meat have
nsyer failed to come out second best in
the race. They know, too, that small
crop OF cotton will bring them as much
money as q large one, and therefore can
not see the necessity for Cutting the
markets OF the world with their Pro-
ducts.
Another reason under this head is to
ha found in the .aet that the great body
Of Sonthern planters contract with the
negroes for work on shares, and the ne
gro. being averse to planting cotton any
yay, will not do it TO the exclusion Of a
bountiful supply of breadstuffs. his
main point is subsistence, which secured,
he Is willing to devote the rest Of his
energies to making something for mar
ket.
In the third place, whatever amount Of
cotton may be produced under the most
favorable circumstances the true basis OF
estimate for the crop is the quantity that
will be picked out. This Is the most diff
ficnit of all services required Of the negro,
and one to which lae has the greatest
aversion, Even though four millions OF
bales should be prodnc We have no idea
that more than two and q hall to three
millions would be gathered from the
field by the present amount Of iab0s.
Every experienced planter will bear us
out ia this opinion.
For these reasons, and others that we
might name, we are convinced that the