The Charleston daily news. [volume] (Charleston, S.C.) 1865-1873, 1869-01-20
THIS YEARS PROBABLE SUPPLY OF
COTTON.
From Messrs. Smith, Edwards l. Co.'s Manchester
= Circular.l

COTTON.
From Messrs. Smith, Edwards & Co.'s Manchester
Circular.l
We will briefly glance at tho prospects Of the
cotton trade for the coming year, and, for the
sake of comparison, advert to the statistical
outturn of the past year. From il, 1t appears
that the total import into Great Britain was
8 eco 600 bales, against $500 900 bales, or an
increase OF 166, 900 bales; but rs this was due
wholly to Brazil bales, which weigh about $50
pounds, the real increase in quantity over the
previous year is trlfing. The deliveries to The
trade for the year reach 500 600 bales, against
2552. .0OO bales last year, being an increase OF
$50, 900 bales; but this 10 also almost entirely
in Brazils, go that the real increase OF consump.
tion is only equal in weight to about 100 600
American, or q, 900 bales per week. The export
for tho year is 915 900 bales, against LOIS, 900
bales. or decrease Of 100000 bales. Tho to-
tal deliveries of the year for trade and export
aggregate 8, III, 900 bales, against an import Of
$500 900 bales, causing reduction of stock in
Liverpool and London OF $1,000 bales, as COM
pared with the previous year; but VIC believe
the trade hold somewhat larger supply at
their mills. 1t appears from the above that
supply and demand have been very nicely i'd
justcd during the past year, and we open the
new wear with very small reserves OF stock, say
497 900 bales in the two ports, as compared with
554 600 bales last year.
What are the prospects of supply for the
coming year? We turn first to America, and
find. as usual, considerable diversity OF opin-
ion|csIimates ion ranging from 800 OOO to 2, $780,
600 bales. We think the crop will be nearer
the first than the second Of these figures, and
lean towards 2,60U 900 bales, including oil the
overland corrections. Eut wo believe that
American spinners will require 100 600 bales
more than the previous season, and therefore
we assume that, practically, the same quantity
will be shipped to Europe as last year, but wo
believe much larger proportion WILL 20 direct
to the continent, and so much the less to Eng
land This, however, is but matter OF secon-
dairy Importance, as our export business will
DC diminished in corresponding ratio, and
very little Americrn cotton will be sent from
England to the continent during the comiug
season. We would point out here tho proba-
bility Of a much larger amount OF new cotton
being received ut the back end OF this year
than OF the past one; for we expect the ae1t
American crop will be much larger than the
present one.
With regard to India we have no reason TO
anticipate any change Of Importance. rhe
ero1s at the Bombay side are believed to be
about as largo as the previous year, and cur
rent prices will draw them rapidly to this
country.
Egypt and Turkey have made. good crops,
aQQ BOm6 lncIedS5 Ou ldoI SSui 40 cAPSotOu
perhaps $4,000 bales.
B,azil seems rapidly to increase it's produc-
tion, and O further large addition is expected
this year-it seems not unreasonable to as-
sumo an extra OF 200, ,0C0 bales.
This general survey would indicate roughly
an additional supply of 250,OO0 small bales te
Europe, exclusive OF any extra quantity OF the
cd, is but poor increase, and will only allow
small development in the consumption-say
about 81, 900 bales per week for Great Britain,
and comparative addition on the continent,
and that increase only in small bales. 1t ap-
pears, therefore, that spinners have another
anxious and perplexing year before them, and
have now room to anticipate low prices for the
raw material. At the same time the prospect
before them is not one OF famine, only. OF
scarcity, and there arc various countervailing
IN the 1tafR EHieil uh9 sc NOW to be stated
tical position OF the staple will probably ex-
hibit The opposite tendency to what it did last
wear. During the first quarter Of 1868 the Oh
take from this port reached the enormous
amount OF $4,000 bales per week, against an
import of 66, 900 bales per week, and this re-
duced the stock (after allowing for oorrectlons)
from 47, 900 bales at the end OF the year TO
912 900 on I'd April; but this year we DO not
anticipate that the offtake will exceed 65,0oU
bales pcr week, while the import will probably
exceed last year, and may reach 70. 0Oe bales
per week, and therefore our stock VIII Propa-
bly, increase and may stand at 100000 bales oy
1st April. Fu ther, one great cause OF the e1- OK
citement in the spring of ]ast year was the e1-
tremely small shipments from India appearing
on the water; but We believe that the crop will
be exported more rapidly from India this year;
The price in Bombay is now 25Or., against
14Or. last year, and the consequence is that the
new crop is now being hurried down to port.
Last yeor at this time business IN indla was
paralyzed; we ther efore expect by the month
of April to see much larger quantity OF In,
dian cotton on the water than last year. anu
altogether considerably greater visible sup
ply Of cotton, and this cannot fail to have
moderating effect upon prices.
But the most important consideration OF q u
is the chance OF O large American crop next
season. We attach great weight to this point.
The planting community OF the South ls reap
ing enormous profits from the present crop,
probably an average Of at least eight cents OF
81. per pound, for we believe the present crop
does not cost on an average over Is conts per
mound, Therefore, We feel sure that they WILL
20 into planting with extraordinary energy Tor
tho coming season, and we bolieye the breadth
of land sown will be 25 to 90 per cent. larger
than last year. Tho knowledge OF this cannot
fail to influence our market some months heuce'
and it will havo deterring effect upon NOR
chants IN Manchester who ship to distant mar
:,
sibe yield OF tho next crop; that will depend
mainly upon the available amount oflabor, but
we may be sure that every effort Will be made
to grow the largest amount OF cotton, and
should the season prove fine We may safely
say that heavy increase is on the cards.
For these various reasons we consider the
present price OF cotton quite high enough, and
We do not see much ground for anticipating
an upward tendency OF prices in the spring
months. Nor, on the other hand, do we see
much room for decline, and range OF LOO. to
lid. for American cotton seems to be fairy
justified. or course il the American crop falls
short OF the figure we have named, the posi-
tion is stronger, pro tdnto; and If It exceeds
it, u.ce versa; supply and demand are too
nicely balanced to allow Of any disturbance
without sharp effect on prices.
In conclusion, we would remark on the dli-
ference in the relative position of American
and Indian cotton. II the former declines "a.
to Id. in the spring months, Surat cotton
should still hold its ground, for the stock Will
be almost exhausted before the new crop ar
rycs; but il American cotton maintains pre-
sent prices, S S.rat must creep upwards II. 10
ii. per pound, for tho ncedful readJustment OF
consumption will not take plaoe without tnls
readiustment OF tho rolativc price. In al cot
ton operations for some time to come Surats
appear, therefore, to be tho safer article to