The Union and journal., 1869-09-24

III our memory be not NJ iauit, IL WS
stated by the Portland papers a few weeks
since, that there were twelve firms in that
CITY that were still doing the same b,isi-
ness which they did in 1910. and under
the same name. At first sight the an
pouncement seems to be an ordinary one;
while upon reflection il win be found to
be important.
The tables Of mortality in business are
calculated as accurately rs are the tables
OF life assurance. and by the same data.
By those tables we find that out Of every
one hundred men who go into business,
ninety-seven fail where three succeed. a
gentleman informs us that on Main street
in this city, In fifteen years. out OF seven
teen men who have, during that time.
been engaged in one branch ofirade, only
one has succecded.- the others have failed.
By failure we do not mean that sixteen
have cheated their creditors; but they
have either failed TO meet their liabilities,
or gone out Of the business. thus falling To
make that branch Of trade remuneratiye.
Gen. Dearborn was collector Of the port
Of Boston for twenty years, and during
that time he had unequalled facilities to
observe the business community and fur
nish data for the foundation OF the tables
of mortality above referred to. In an ad-
dress to the agricultural members Of the
legislature one evening he remarked
1.-The chances Of success in trade are like
wise much less numerous. and are more
uncertain than men generally believe, or
are willing to allow. After an extensive
acquaintance with business men, and hav-
ing long been an attentive observer Of the
course of events in the mercantile. COM
munity, am satisfied that among one
hundred merchants and traders not more
than three in this city ever acquire indie
pendence. 1t was with great distrust that
/ came to this conclusion; but after con-
sulting with an experienced merchant, he
fully admitted its truth"
The following confirmatory remarks Of
AN intelligent gentleman from Boston APP
peared in the Farmers Library:
The statement made by Geneval Dearborn ap-
pcared to me 50 startling, 30 appalling, that
wa, induced TO examine il with much care, and,
regret to say, found II true. l then called
upon friend, great antiquarian, gentleman
always referred to in all matters relating TO the
city Of Boston, and he told me that in the year
1900, he took memorandum of every person
on Long Wharf, and that, in lSi0-which Is rs
long as q merchant continues in business-only
fire in one hundred remained. They had all,
in that time, FAILED, or DIED DESTITUTE or
PROPERTY. then went to an intelligent di-
rector Of the Union Bank very strong bank.
He told me that the bank commenced business
in 1898; that there was then but one other
bank in Boston. the Massachusetts, Bank, and
that the hank was 80 overrun with business that
the clerks ard officers were obliged to work un-
iii twelve o'clock at night, and all Sundays;
that they had occasion to look back, year or
two ago, and they found that, Of the one thou
sand accounts which were opened with them in
starting, only SIR remained; they had, in the
fortyyesrs, either failed. or died destitute ef
property. Houses, whose paper had passed
without aeuestion had all gone dorn In that
time. Bankruptcy, said he, Is like death, and
almost rs certain they fall singly and alone,
and are thus forgotten; but there Is no escape
from II, and be Is q fortunate man who fails
young.
In 1917 the Hon. Nahum Capen stated
the result of his experience covering n
period of thirty years:
If young man At twenty-one were TO lease
farm and make an annual profit OF one hundred
dollars aud invest both principal and interest
from year 10 year, for twenty-five years, his
fund would amount 10 $4,000. IL he were to
own the farm, he might have fund at interest
Of $4,000 in twenty-five years.
A trader, however, may begin with capital
Of 900 on the credit system, as now man
aged, and in twenty-five years there are ninety
seven chances TO every one hundred, that he
will lie $4,000 in debt beyond his means to
pay.
Thi. percentage Of success and failure has
been alluded TO ut yVur discussions, as being
tue Of Boston. believe Il to lie nearly cor
rect. have been advised by very intelligent
gentlemen, who have the means OF knowing,
that not more hdR ONE per ceni. OF the best
class Of merchants succeed rithout failing On
PnILApELrniA, and that not more hdn rwoper
cent. Of the merchants Of NEw York ULTIMATE
Lr retire on an inispeadsaes, afisr hariag sub
nitisd 10 the usual ordeal Of failure. These
calculations are basel. Il must be observed, up
on periods Of twenty-five and thirty years.
Mr.. Charles Cist, the statist of Cincin-
natl. recently stated that out of n list of
four hundred merchantilc men doing busi-
ness in that city only five were now doing
business who were 50 twenty years since.
From these experiences we may ut least
safely infer that. Of merchants five per
cent. actually succeed q. Q. acquire IN In
dependency; ten per cent. fail to make
more than shand to mouth living"
while eighty-five per cent. are either dead
failures. or leave the employment for
something more remunerativc. This ratio
of disappointment win doubtless prove
itself more or less in nearly every branch
Of industry not based upon an educated
"trade," with the exception Of agriculture.
In n few cases Of loss chance had some
thing to do, but they are really so few that
we may conclude that the whole cause Of
failure might have been avoided. had the
persons 50 engaged been properly cdu-
Gated.
To show what that education should he.
and thereby teach how success in business
should be obtained, will be the subject of
future articles.