The New York herald., 1869-04-23
France and Rurspe-war Possibilities.

~ 10 ouiy lew uayS since we gave IL 40 oui
opinion that the Franco Belgian trouble
might result in some such complication as
should prove dangerous to the peace of
Europe. We have not had long to wait with
out receiving encouragement to our view Of
the situation. Prussia, we said, was so deeply
concerned In the settlement Of this Belgian
railway question that Prussia could not be in
different, and that hitch in the proceedings
was not only possible but probable. The
hitch has come. The negotiations had so far
satisfactorily proceeded. A few days ago we
learned that M. Frere-Orban had returned
from Paris to Brussels very much dissatisfied
with the result Of his mission. Now we learn
from cable despatch that the negotiations for
a commercial conference between France and
Belgium have been suspended. What does 1t
anything else than this-that the two Powers
have differed as to the questions to be submit
ted to the proposed conference. We know
that France had been making heavy demands;
and the presumption now is that France has
asked 80 much that Belgium has been compelled
to stand upon her dignity and refuse. II such
be the fact, then we may rest as
sured that, in spite Of the undignifed
advice given by the London Times,
Belgium has known her duty, and that she has
good reason to conclude that beyond certain
point she can count on the sympathy and
support of both Great Britain and Prussia.
Another telegram of the same date, informing
US that the Prussian Ambassador at Paris had
been instructed to thank the French Foreign
Minister for the pacific sentiments recently
expressed by him in the French Chamber, does
not in the smallest degree affect this view of
the case. 1t means wise and cunning diplo-
macy-a little bit of the Jesuit; that is all.
What with this and other important foreign
questions demanding attention; what with the
restless condition of the French people, and
the municipal elections in immediate pros
pect, the French Emperor has GER
tainlY trouble enough on hand. Napo-
leon, in fact, is now In critical, perhaps the
most critical, condition in which he has found
himself for many years. interests :apparent
or real, pull in different directions. How to
yield, or rather now to act. It is not SO easy
to decide. 4 is now some years since Decem-
Der 2, 1851, and Frenchmen have had fair
chance of coming to conclusion as to the
merits or demerits Of Napoleonism. That
Napoleon the Third has done great things for
France no one can deny. Prosperous at home
and respected abroad are old phrases which
have often been used In very absurd connec-
tions, but during the reign of the third Napo-
leon they have not been wholly meaningless.
France Is Power with which no other Power
feels 1t safe to 60 to war. There have been
many and even serious Napoleonic blunders;
but while France under this mans rule has sus-
tanned some diplomatic defeats, she has sus-
tanned no defeat on the field of battle. This,
however, does not fully state the case France
under Napoleon has gained some of the most
splendid field victories Of modern times. 1t Is
undeniable, too, that since 1851 France has
gained somewhat in political liberty.
It is at the same time true that France
Is not satisfied. Republicans are still in op-
position and Orleanists are still dissatis-
fed, while the legitimatists are as stubborn
as ever. This is true of the different
sections, but it does not cover the whole diff
ference between Napoleon and the French
people. Much as they have prospered at home
and much as they are respected abroad, the
French people think that they are not what they
ought to be-not what they once were, not
what they believe they ever should be. There
is grumbling all over France because in some
important respects they are the least free of
bling because the name of France abroad is
not sufficient to compensate for this disadvan-
tage at home.
France is not big enough terror abroad
not contented enough at home. This is Napo-
Icons trouble. This is the difficulty which
confronts the government at the forthcoming
elections. No man knows the situation half so
well as Napoleon himself. He knows he has
made the best Of many and serious
difficulties. He knows he has made
some mistakes. But he knows also that
in the circumstances 1t was difficult to do other
than he did. He is convinced that the bulk of
the French people are satisfied that, all things
considered, their destinies are safer in his
hands than in the hands Of any other. The
abolition Of the Liora system gives us key
to Napeleons present thoughts. The working
men on his side, he knows he can control the
elections. By this last move he has secured
the workingmen, and, unless we greatly mis-
take, the elections will result in a grand
Ministerial triumph. We can have no war
until after the elections. If the result of the
elections is to the Emperor's mind it will not
be wonderful If the empire again means peace.
If, however, the elections do not result to the
Emperor's entire satisfaction 1t is not at oil
impossible that q bold effort will be made, by