The Charleston daily news. [volume] (Charleston, S.C.) 1865-1873, 1869-01-20

dened with favorable Judgment, and speedily
thereafter have the opportunity to pocket the
"demnition cash." r.
THIS YEARS. PROBABLE SUPPLY OF
COTTON.
From Messrs. smith, Edwards g. Co.'s Manchester
Circular
| We will briefly glance at the prospects of tho
cotton trade for the coming year, and, for the
sake of comparison, adverC to the statistical
outturn of the past year. From it, it appears
that the total import into Great Britain was
5000, 600 bales, against $500 900 bales, or an
increase Of 100000 bales; but as this was due
wholly to Brazil bales, which weigh about 15O
pounds tho real increase in quantity over the
trade for the year reach 2 802 900 bales, against
! 1852 0OO bales last year, being ON increase of
10000 bales; but this is also almost entirely
in Brazils, 30 that the real increase Of consump-
| ton Is only equal in weight to about 100 900
| American, or 1000 bales por week. The export
for tho year is 915,000 bales, against 1,O15, 900
bales, pa or decrease @ Of 100000 bales. Tho to-
| tai deliveries of the year for trade and export
aggregate 8, ,717,000 bales against an import of
$500 900 bales, causing o reduction Of stock in
Liverpool and London Of $1,000 bales, as COM
pared with the previous year; but we believe
the. trade hold q somewhat larger supply at
their mills. 1t appears from tho above that
supply and demand have been very nicely ad-
ussed during III; the past year and we open the
|
497 900 bales in tho two ports, as compared with
| 554 900 bales last year.
coming mug year? We turn first III A Amerioa, ca, and and
| find, as usual, considerable diversity OF opin-
ion-estimatcs ranging from $500, 900 to 2,75O,-
600 bales. We think the crop will be nearer
| the first than the second Of these figures, and
| lean towards 1900 900 bales, including all the
| overland corrections. Eut we believe that
| American spinnors will require 100 600 bales
more than the previous season, and therefore
| we assume that, practically, the same quantity
will be shipped to Europe as last year, but we
bclieve a much larger proportion will go direct
| to the continent, and SO much the less to Eng
land. This, however, is but matter OF secon-
Diary Importance, as our export business will
be diminished in corresponding ratio, and
| very little American cotton will be sent from
England to tho continent during the comiug
season.. We would point out bore the proba-
being received at the back end Of this year
than of the past one; for we expect the next
American crop will be much larger than the
| present one.
With regard to India we have no reason to
anticipate any change OF Importance. The
crops at the Bombay eide are believed to be
about as large as the previous year, and cur
rent prices will draw them rapidly to this
country.
Egypt and Turkey have made good crops,
and some Increase on last year il expected
perhaps $4,000 bales.
| Brazil seems rapidly to increase its produc-
ton, and a. further large addition is expected
this year-it seems not unreasonable to as
sumo an extra OF 100000 bales.
This general survey would indicate roughly
an additional supply Of 25O,0OO small bales to
Europe, exclusive OF any extra quantity of the
next American crop. This, it must be allow
ed is but a poor increase, and will only allow o
about 81, 600 bales per week for Great Britain,
and comparative addition on the continent,
and that increase only in small bales. 1t ap-
I pears, therefore, that spinners have another
=
have now room to anticipate low prices for the
raw material. At the same time the prospect
before them is not one Of famine, only of
scarcity, and there are various countervai!ing
| considerations which have now to be stated.
IA the early Nloaths OF this yoar the statis-
tical position OF the staple will probably ex-
hibit the opposite tendency to what it did last
year. During the first quarter Of 1868 the off
take from this port reached the enormous
amount of &c, 600 bales per week, against an
import of 66,OOO bales per week, and this re-
duced the 1 stock CATER allowing for corrections)
S12 600 on I'd April; but this year we do not
anticipate that the offtake will exceed 65 1890
bales per week, while the import will probably
exceed last year, and may reach &C. 900 bales
per week, and therefore our stock will proba-
bly, increase and may stand at 400, 900 bales by
1st April. Flu, ther, one great cause Of the ex-
ctement in the spring of !ast year was the ex-
on the water; but we believe that the crop will
be exported more rapidly from India this year.
The price in Bombay is now 25Or., against
14Or. last year. and the consequence is that the
new crop is now being hurried down to port.
Last year at this time business in India was
paralyzed; we ther efore expect by the month
OF April to see much larger quantity of In,
altogether a considerably greatec, visible sup
/ ply OF cotton, and this cannot fail to have O
moderating effect upon prices.
Bnt the most important consideration Of II
is the chance OF o. large American crop next
season. We attach great weight to this point.
| The planting community of the South is reap
ing enormous profits from the present crop,
probably an average Of at least eight cents or
3d. per pound, for we believe the present crop
does not cost on an average over Is cents per
pound. Therefore, we feel sure that they will
go into planting with extraordinary energy for
Of land sown will be Is to so per cent. larger
than Tasty The knowledge of this cannot
fall to influence our market some months hence.
and it will lave d deserring effect upon ;slsr-
chants IN Manchester who ship to distant mar
kets. We pronounce no opinion as to the pos
sible yield OF the next crop; that Will depend
mainly upon the available amount OF labor, but
we may be sure that every effort will be made
to grow the largest amount OF cotton, and
should the season prove fine we may safely
say that heavy increase is on the cards.
| For these various reasons we consider the
present price Of cotton quite high enough, and
an upward tendency OF prices i'll the spring
months. Nor, on the other hand, do We see
much room for decline, and range OF 1Od. to
lid. for American cotton seems to be fairly
justified. or course, If the American crop falls
short OF the figure we have named, the posi-
ton is stronger, pro tanto; and If 1t exceeds
it, 1sce versa; supply and demand are too
nicely balanced to allow OF any disturbance
without o sharp effect on prices.
| In conclusion, we would remark on the diff
ference In the relative position of American
and Indian cotton. II the former declines Id.
to Id. in the spring months, Surat cotton
i should still hold it's ground, for the stock will
be almost exhausted before the new crop ar
rives; but il American cotton maintains pre-
sent prices, Surat must creep upwards Id. to
Id per pound, for the needtul readjustment Of
readjustment OF the relative price. In all cot
Il nua 4i0pa ff,ru Ia 81