Nashville union and American. [volume] (Nashville, Tenn.) 1868-1875, 1869-04-01
THE COMING COrrON CROP.
sPee1lattOns and Pr0pheei es Concern
ing that staple.

rfecaiattons ana Fr0phe eies Concern
ing that staple.
From the Savannah (Ga.) Republican.
This is now the subiec Of much specu-
lation and prophecy. The crop of last
year is fixed fact; its figures are known,
at least to the extent Of approximation,
and the question of value settled by the
law of supply and demand. This latter
decree is extremely repugnant to the
spectators and spinneSs, and it is aston,
ishlng with what pertinacity they resort
TO expedients to set it aside. The ar
guments drawn from estimates of quanti-
tity, so far as the incoming crop is con
cerned, having failed, they now seek 10
depress the market by creating the i'm
preston tina. a very large crop is to sue
coed it. Under the most advantageous
circumstances the argument is next to
worthless, in view OF the contingencies
that surround everything in the future.
A bad stand, late frost in the spring,
wet summer, the worms and caterpilars,
an early frost in the fall, are all natural
disasters that may come upon the plans
ter, to say nothing Of the difficulties of
production growing out oftne present dis
organization Of labor.
But, reasoning from facts and proba-
billties, these prophecies Of heavy crop
in lS69 are wholly at fault. There are
no satisfactory grounds upon which such
an estimate can be based. Under the
very best Of circumstances we do not be-
leVe that the crop can be made to ex-
coed, il to reach, 100000 bales, and in
ourjudgment, formed upon pretty acs
curate knowledge Of the condition Of the
planting interests Of the South, it will fall
fully half q million short OF that figure,
even allowing no natural disaster to over
take it. We have already discussed the
matter in a previous number of the Re
pU6tSc0n, but as the contrary opinion is
Persistently presented in order tointius
encc the market and cut short the re>
ceipts OF the planter, it may not be amiss
again TO present the reasons that inhu-
ence our opinion.
One Of these reasons is TO be found in
the remarkable but sure and steady re-
duction OF the amount of labor devoted
TO the cultivation Of cotton. Nor is this
confined to any particular section; the
complaint comes from every cotton grow
ing State from California 10 Texas, that
the planters have failed to procure the
requisite and usual force for their years
operations.
In the second place, it is not true, as
asserted, that demeDted by the high
prices of the present day, the planters
have determined to abandon the cereals
TO very great extent and devote them
selves to the production of the staple.
Some few may have grown wild on the
subject, but the great body OF our agri-
culturists are shrewd, observing men,
and have learned from experience that it
is folly to buy bread and bacon. Those
who have made all these in the proper
proportion have prospered most, while
their neighbors who have looked to the
Northwest for their bread and meat have
never failed to come out second best in
the race. They know, too, that small
crop Of cotton will bring them as much
money as a large one, and therefore On
not see the necessity for Cutting the
markets Of the werld with their products.
= Another reason under this head is to
be found in the fact that the great body
Of Southern planters contract with the
negroes for work on shares, and the ne
gro, being averse to planting cotton any
way, will not do it to the exclusion of
bountiiul supply Of brea6stuffs. His
main point is subsistence, which secured,
he is willing to devote the rest of his
energies to making something for mar
ket. ..
In the third place, whatever amount Of
cotton may be produced under the most
favorable circumstances the true basis Of
estimate for the crop is the quantity that
will be picked out This is the most
difficult of all services required of the
negro, and one TO which he has the great
est aversion. Even though four millions
Of bales should be produced we haYe no
idea that more than two and half to
three millions would be gathered from
the field by the present amount of labor.
Every experienced planter will bear US
cut in this opinion.
For these reasons, and others that We
might name, we are convinced that the
estimates Of the crop Of 1869, as given
out from New York and Liverpool, are
extravsgant and Wholly unreliable. The
last year was most favorable for the pro
duction Of cotton throughout the South,
with single exception-the caterpillar,
which infested a small portion of the
Southland we believe that if the actual
crop be taken as a basis, plus the
amount destroyed by insects in Georgia,
Alabama and Florida, We shall have
crop that is equal to the capacity of our
labor, constituted as it is at the present
day; and the prospect is for deterioration
rather than for improvement. The in~
creased use of fertilizers will, in our opin-
ION, not more than compensate for the res
duced amount and efficiency Of labor.