The New York herald. [volume] (New York [N.Y.]) 1840-1920, 1868-08-14
The Presidency-The Probabilities Of III,

KENTUCKY mas doubled her democratic ma
jority in one year, and that is revolutionary
fact. Majorities do not vary at such rate
ordinarily. Hitherto the home of Henry Clay
has given democratic majorities, but not such
as are given this year. Other parties have
had very respectable hearing In that State
She was one of the two Southern States that
gave Lincoln vote in 1850, and in the same
year only Virginia and Tennessee of the
Southern States outvOted her on the Bell and
Everett ticket Even in 1864 McClellan's ma
jority was only thirty-six thousand Nothing
like so intensely democratic in the past as
Southern States generally, she gives the demo-
cratic candidate this year majority Of ninety
thousand-a vote that indicates a movement
of the people scarcely less than a stampede.
Negro suffrage is held responsible for this
change by the local chroniclers, and the chrOni-
clers are in all probability right. Negro
suffrage, so avowedly the policy Of the re-
publican party that its orators can no longer
make any denial, has applied a tremendous
process of ''attrition" to the republican vote
in Kentucky and worked it down to a worth
less quantity.
1t will do the same elsewhere. Through
out the South we shall see this one definite
result of negro suffrage-that there will no
longer be any practicable division of the white
vote, but the people that have hitherto given a
respectable vote to each of two parties will
now all go together by instructive agglomera-
ton against the negro suffrage party. In
Kentucky the result is clearly seen, because
there is no negro vote to give respecta-
BILE proportions to the other side; but
the democratic majority is so great
that even the natural negro vote of that State
which would be about twenty-five thousand
could not have changed the result If cast. In
those States, therefore, in which negro suffrage
is in force the vote of the negro will not come
as a balance Of power between parties, it will
not swell the weaker side as that side appeared
in the former political divisions of the people;
but if cast for the radicals il will stand alone
against the whole white vote. Human nature
can never be reduced to mathematics exactly;
but if there is point in its history very nearly
capable of positive demonstration it is the force
with which the various otherwise hostile ele-
ments of people combine in presence of
common danger. There is no point of differ
ence between the people that will not dwindle
to insigni6cance by comparison with the differ
ence between black and white. The conse-
quence in the South will be that the demOcr ats
will carry every Southern State except South
Carolina. Regarding the statistics of elections
up to 1860 as well as the recent registration
we should have excepted Mississippi also, but
the recent vote on the constitution indicates
that the democracy rule there also. In 1860
eleven Southern States gave five hundred and
eighty-three thousand votes for the demo-
cratic candidate and four hundred and
seven thousand for the Bell and Everett ticket
Doubtless the Bell and Everett vote represents
the proportion OF Southern sentiment that
might have favored the policy of reconstruct
ing party Of patriotic purposes and holding ra-
tional views of politics and Of human nature;
but against party to whose policy negro suf-
frage is only the preface the whole white South
ern vote of 1860 is sure to go together, and will
make total sufficient to neutraize the negro
vote. and in addition. balance the republican
majority Of IsGi on the popular vote of the
whole country.
In the North the vote against the republicans
win be very heavy. Men know how far demo-
cratic misrue would CO. and what direction il
would take, and they do not know the limit of
radical madness. Judging it by the past, they
find it difficult TO conceive that the republican
fury has any definite limit. Hitherto IL has
hesitated at nothing, has pushed recklessly on
wherever bounded by ambitious leaders, and
rather than be dragged where such a party
would go the people will take the chance Of
revolution with the democrats. Republicanisrn,
in fact, is driven to point at which it is des-
perate. For two years il has stood upon the
defensive before the people. Had the popular
jealousy Of its tendencies been less clearly
shown ii would have pushed on to the ex-
tremity of conHscation and prescription; for
its leaders felt that these were necessary parts
of its policy, that these alone could give il
safe possession Of what il had already won.
without confscation the results of negro
suffrage will slip through its fingers. Without
prescription the Southern States cannot be
kept from the natural leaders of the Southern
people. The republican party Of the future.
therefore. will be ready for any desperation.
convinced from its past that the greatest
danger is in standing still. There is, then
greater reason than ever why IL should be kept
from power. and this the people evidently
feel. Last year the gains against the republican
party on Congressional votes had wiped out
its former majorities and established an
equality, aud, constantly increasing, the gains
will now make the balance on the other side.
Such a change as we have seen in Oregon.
and half such majorities as Kentucky has
given. will present q total to astonish and
conlonnd political philosopherH