The New York herald., 1868-02-09
THE SPRING TRADE.

Rcsumptfon Of Briskness In the Dry C oods
Trade-Siisht Advance In Prices-Present
: state Of the Market and Its Caases-Pros-
poets of the Spring Season in the Clothing
. Basin ess-,mall Demand and Less Supply.
n The Shoe and Other Trades.
Judging from the number Of strangers In the city and
the general activity Of leading wholesale housos there
prospect Of stirring Of the sagnant, pool Of
business and this spring In imported fabrics the
fall trade and that Of the far depressed
than s generally supposed indeed during the latter
part Of November and the initial weeks Of December
trade IN imported and expensive fabrics was
exceedingly brisk aud rapid. Low prices had
had the effect 70 stimulate demand, and At
the schedule adopted by leading houses there
siderable buying in anticipation of real wants and Of
higher schedule for the spring and latter part OF winter
During the few weeks or mild weather which preceded
the early storms Of December therefore, there
unusual activity Of the retail trade which, with the
advent Of the cold weather, became more or less DOR
man leaving retailers with large stocks on hand which
must be Sold The consequence was considerable de-
preston in retail prices for the latter part Of December
and the month of January-a depression which, how
ever principally affected retail Dealers having little
effect the market in general. This state OF affairs
attested by the fact that for two months past the ma
ority or failures have fallen among retail dealers
Sometimes, ont OF the whole list for the week,
D6en
ailers have reduced bankruptcy by the dozen
Tho OF this was principally refusal OF retailers
to listen lessons OF ordinary sense and
the somewhat -udged theory their part that pso-
ple would buy and that long goods sold for
cash there could be trouble This theory so far as
the buy ing concerned demonstrated TO be
falacy; and the fallacy having been demonstrated,
there remained the hard tact that when nobody would
buy nobody could SELL aud retailers took to insolvency
by tho score and were II for other reason
than that they had refused to see what was plainly
visible.
rs the testimony experts that the mporatons of
past year exceeded the normal demand for I'M
ported aeres 0y a. least sas aieen per cent ana s same
been partially due to excess Of European production.
The European markets, as well as that OF New York,
have been overloaded with three years accumulation
of manufactured fabrics OF n kinds, principally, how
cloths and dry goods and general resort TO the
tender system--a mode of getting rid Of goods some-
what similar to, though less open than, the American
auconhas been the consequences. This excess OF pro-
duclion in France, England and Germany has been par
tiay due 70 an or the Immediate revival OF
the Southern demand at least considerable percent
age Of it. This did not really lake place. and the conse-
quence was large excess Of fabrics in the market.
There was no money at the south with
which to buy OF the results Of the war; and
one OF the results Of unsettled reconstruction has been
that not only has the South money, but owing TO
threats of conscatoh and depression In the value Of
credit For two years this has been the case
and 1868 opens with no better prospect There Is no
probability that the Southern trade will amount to any
thing even for the present season. The new crop OF
Orleans sugar and oasses has relieved the pcnury
OF Louisiana to some extent, aud the traic between
New York and New Orleans Is likely TO assume some
briskness during the coming spring. This relief Is
purely local. however and Will not materially affect the
general question OF Sorthern demand whe the cotton
crop has uiied the antcipasions Of last summer
in extent or scale Of prices, and little anti
cpaton OF trade can be based upon u. That
which Is true Of the cotton crop is also true
Of the tobacco crop, though for different reason.
Owing necessity fer self support founded upon both
want of money and want Of credit, the tobacco pro-
ducing districts Of South have been devoted largely
to the production OF cereas-a produce which mas so
lessened the tobacco production Of Virginia and other
States to render Impossible to base any reasonable
anticipation OF trade upon this CROP hitherto one OF the
commercial staples OF the South Intelligent business
men correct therefore, 10 hoping nothing from and
in laying upon any anticipated revival OF
Southern demand for this season. That the South
needs goods granted but the south has nothing with
which 10 pay Tor goods, and therefore, commercially
speaking, tue needs OF the south are OF no
importance in estimating the trade prospect Of
the season. Some few Southern buyers, princ-
paly from New Orleans, havo bought sparingy
FOR the spring trade, though mostly OF comparatively
inexpensive goods and to supply the iuexpsnsv3 ana
immediate sssities Of Southern buyers TIE effort
which mao after the close OF tae war TO estaD
sh subhonses in the south upon the credit Of leading
New YORK firms has proved absolute failure. several
tnese houses havealed; tho Larger numhor have not
paid expenses, and have thus far been simply drain
upon their New York founders; aud not ew have ooeu
withdrawn left TO themselves The idel OF any re-
viva OF Southern trade may be therefore dismissed ns
faacious and the antclpatons Of The spring trade may
There will be no apprccabe revival OF southern demand
at lea for couple OF to Gomez and not less than
Of years will needed for the complete recu-
peratlon OF the Southern market.
The uade OF 1867 was, however. by no means SO
small Is generally supposed. IL may be safey a.
serted in fact that during tie past year the qusn o.
goods sold has been ty per cent greater nan IN soo
and at least twenty per cent greater than 10 1900
brief calculation will be sufficient TO demonstrate hs
For instance taking the two houses OF H. Cisnn aud
A. Stewart together, and these houses are probably
the best representatives OF the wholesale trade the
relative sales for three years have stood as VS. 90
1885 $l36, OO0 00O
1866 l3o,O00,OO0
A~',So0'o
The average a in prices OF goods has been since the
close OF the about fy per cent or perhaps more
In fact fall OF nfty per cent has taken place since
1885, the detection having been about equally dstrouea
between 1856 1867 In prints and caiicoes the ue
fecton has been about sixty por cent and In white
goods about forty per cent yielding the specined aver
age Of ny per cent. Calculating from ths OASIS the
volume Of goods sold in 1867 has been materially larger
than that or ls60 which Was materially larger tban
that 1865 Tho following table exhibits tho reativ
proportions OF volume for the three years. that oil 1868
Ill. - raufa