The evening telegraph. [volume] (Philadelphia [Pa.]) 1864-1918, 1868-09-11
France and Prussia The War Prospect.

France and Prussia The War Prospect.
From the ~ Y. Herald
Our latest news from Europe is to the effect
that the war fever has not subsided. King
William of Prussia was on military lnspec-
tion tour throughout the Northern Confedera-
ton, the Emperor Napoleon was at the camp
of Chalons, and a report of a war speech
(afterwards contradicted with salutary results)
made to the army sent the Rentes down
alarmingly. Military inspection made by the
chief of North Germany throughout the Con-
federation and prOtracted visits to the head
quarters of the French army made by the
chief of the State do, at the present moment
say the peacemskers what they may, mean
something serious. Supposing, however, that
our belief in the peace prospect of Europe was
much stronger than it is, and that we could
afford to explain away the King of Prussia's
visit to Saxony and the Emperor Napoleon's
visit to the camp at Chalons, we should still
feel perpleXed by the extraordinary sensitive
ness of the Paris BOurse. If French capital
lists have faith in the peace intentions of the
Emperor wherefore this fearfulness at the
Bourse, this extraordinary trembling of the
monetary halance2 The excitement at the
Bourse on Tuesday is explcable only on the
principle that French capitalists, whatever
faith they may have in the empire, do not
believe in peace.
We have already, on several occasions of
late, stated our reasons for believing in the
probability of an early war between France
and Prussia. For the present, therefore, we
do not deem it necessary to repeat them. In
yesterdays Herald we gave it as our opinion
that war was av0idabe only on one cond-
tion, viz, that Prussia relinquish her hold on
the Rhine provinces. As there is little liIel-
hood of Prussia doing this, and as there is just
as little likelihood of France being contented
with anything short OF this, the question be-
comes of paramount Importance. In the event
of war breaking ont bptWpan Francn and
Prussia on which side lie the chances of sue
cess? The question 10 nice-perhaps too
nice, in the opinion of some persons, to
be definitely answered. Still, it is the ques-
tion par excellence of the moment, and
deserves attention. If France is ia every
respect stronger in herself better pre-
pared TO begin, and better prepared
to carry on war, there are few who will hest
tate to say that France must be the victor
If, on the other hand, Prussia is in every
respect stronger, better prepared to begin and
better prepared to carry on war, there are lust
as few who will hesitate to say that Prussia
must be the victor Which, then, is in most
favorable circumstances for such a struggle
France or Prussia OF the two we hesitate
not to say-and We say it. not because we are
influenced by any pro-French sympathy, but
from simple regard to truth after careful
examination of all the facts of the case
France is unquestionably in the most hopeful
condition. In the first place France is homo
geneous and compact nation, while Prussia in
her new conditions is heterogeneous and ill.
organized confederation. So far, therefore, as
union is strength, the chances are in favor of
France. In the second place France has larger
population, larger army and in every respect
larger resources than the North German Con-
federation. The area of North Germany is
less by fifth than that of France. In 1866
the population of North Germany was little
over thirty millions while that of Francs was
hiNtx ntx -,
the two countries are perhaps very much the
same; but while France has always six hun
dred thousand in reserve, the reserve of North
0ermany does not exceed three hundred
thousand. 1t is difficult to conceive how
King William could get together at once, and
without placing society in peril, the nine hun
dred thousand men on whom Napoleon can
count with the utmost confidence. Much has
been made by the too enthusiastic friends
OF Prussia OF her superior chances at sea:
but the truth is that here Prussia COM
pares even less favorably than France. Her
tonnage when the free towns are included is
greater than that of France: but she has only
three ironclads and some five hundred and
forty-nine guns with which to confront the
greatly more powerful navy of Napoleon. so
1ar, therefore, as immediate resources CO. the
chances must be regarded as in favor of
france. In connection with this part of the
subject it is always to be borne in mind that
Tor rapldlty of execution the French have no
rivals on the face of the earth. 1t took Prus-
sla twenty years to turn out her one million
needle guns France has manufactured her
one million two hundred thousand Chassepots
in couple OF years. In protracted struggle
Prussia might prove herself the most enduring;
but as a protracted struggle is impossible, as
the fight, if it takes place now, must be short,
sharp and decisive, the chances are infinitely
in favor OF France.
There is but one consideration that can in
duce us to modify this judgment, which is that
Russia and Austria may be dragged into the
contest. The neutrality of Italy, of Spain of
Portugal, of Switzerland, of Belgium of Hol-
land may be taken for granted. 1t is not so
easy to decide on the probable course of either
Russia or Austria. That there is a good
understanding between King William and the
Czar Alexander is an opinion which has been
generally entertained since their late meeting
at Schwalbach. 1t is doubtful, however
whether this good understanding amounts
to an alliance offensive and defensive. 1t is
our opinion as we have said before, that if
Napoleon asks no more than that France shall
have the Rhine for her northern and north
eastern frontier Russia will not interfere
Russia is not in a position, financially or
otherwise, to court war. Austria, if she does
interfere, will take the side of France; but
Austrian interference can only follow that of
Russia, and Austria has even stronger reasons
than those of her powerful rival to desire the
continuance of peace. Russia and Austria out
of the field the contest would be brief, brilliant,
and conclusive. Russia and Austria in the
field it is impossible TO say where, when, or
how the struggle might end. Great Britain
has a deep national interest in Belgium. 1t is
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